An unlikely array of circumstances has aligned to dim U.S. Rep. Jim Bridenstine's odds of becoming NASA administrator — arithmetic in the Senate, an election in Alabama, the failing health of two octogenarians — leaving the likelihood of confirmation only marginally better than a coin flip.

“Fifty-one to 49,” said John Logsdon, founder of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University. “That's about the odds. They're slightly above even.”

In the four months since he was nominated by President Donald Trump for the job he had aptly positioned himself to ascend to, Bridenstine has heard his own words recited back to him as reasons why roughly half the Senate opposes his nomination.

There was his 2013 claim that “global temperatures stopped rising 10 years ago,” a claim he has since distanced himself from. There was his claim that same-sex couples are sexually immoral. There were his media appearances with ultraconservative commentators.