Less than a week after the shutdown of NUMMI, it appears increasingly possible that the auto factory’s former suppliers face a similar fate.

According to a recent study, only two or three of the 13 suppliers in Alameda County are likely to survive the shutdown.

“Most of these companies don’t know what to do next,” said Brent Meyers, president of Manex, a consulting firm for manufacturers that conducted the study. “They have fantastic operational skills, they have skilled workers. But they don’t know what alternatives are available to them after NUMMI.”

The job losses and financial devastation among the 13 manufacturers that Manex surveyed are expected to be severe. Some 917 jobs, $160 million in revenue and $64 million in wages would evaporate if 10 or 11 of the 13 suppliers are forced to close their doors, the Manex study found.

Alameda County is home to 31 companies that supplied the now-closed New United Motor Manufacturing Inc. plant, which employed 4,700 people.

Santa Clara County contains an estimated 35 companies that provided NUMMI with products or services, according to Manex.

San Joaquin, Stanislaus and Merced counties also have former NUMMI suppliers.

“We knew it would be challenging for the suppliers,” said Bruce Kern, executive director of the Alameda County Workforce Investment Board. “A majority of their business was associated with NUMMI.” The work force board commissioned the Manex survey.

A separate analysis by the Bay Area News Group determined that among all types of suppliers, manufacturers and otherwise, the job losses in Alameda County this year so far top 1,200.

The aftermath of the NUMMI shutdown is especially complicated for suppliers because of the intense demands of providing goods or services to the factory.

“A lot of suppliers just became order-takers for NUMMI, because NUMMI gave them so much business,” Meyers said. “They just allowed themselves to be caught up by a regular flow of orders and revenue from the plant.”

In a number of cases, suppliers became less nimble because their focus was consumed by NUMMI’s requirements, Meyers said.

“When they focused so much on NUMMI, they also allowed their strategic, marketing and sales skills to atrophy over time,” Meyers said. “They can’t rapidly penetrate new markets.”

What about the two or three companies that might escape the NUMMI wreckage? Diversification and preparation appear to be key factors.

“Either NUMMI was less than half their business or they had started planning for alternatives nine months ago when it became apparent that NUMMI might close,” Meyers said. “They had the skills, or they were willing to invest in obtaining the skills to identify alternative markets where they could do well.”

Contact George Avalos at 925-977-8477.