The (Wrong) Knee-Jerk Reaction to Ezekiel Elliott’s Suspension

Understandably, the initial fantasy football reactions to Ezekiel Elliott‘s six game suspension have been widely negative:

CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg labels Zeke a third or fourth round pick “at the earliest,” a sentiment shared by ESPN’s Matthew Berry, (unfortunately) the current (whiny-ass) face of fantasy:

Yahoo Fantasy “Experts” Scott Pianowski and Liz Lora are screaming bloody murder, writing:

Pianowski: “I won’t consider Elliott in the first two rounds. In the third round, it will largely depend on the room, the competition level, what I already have, and how confident I feel about making the playoffs (more confident, the more I can take a long-term view and be Elliott accepting; if the league competitive, I’m less likely to accept the dead roster spot early). But I’m only going to take him if things fall into place for me at the draft table; I will not select him proactively or aggressively. I’m not trying to be a hero here. Floor in the first 2-3 rounds probably matters to me more than most drafters. Upside? Anyone you consider in those rounds offers upside.” Lora: Personally, I’m not touching Elliot before the fourth round and I’m certainly not wasting a roster spot on Darren McFadden, assuming he’s the bellcow’s handcuff.

One of Roto Street Journal’s favorite experts, PFF’s Scott Barrett, is hauling ass off the Zeke train, noting:

Dallas OL lost Leary/Free. Could rotate Alf and DMC, crushing Elliott owners early in season. I'm pushing Elliott back to late third round. https://t.co/Z1MKjgEJh9 — Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) August 11, 2017

Ezekiel Elliott to miss 43-46% of your fantasy regular season. Gets Seahawks in FF championship (3.4 YPC allowed in 2016, second-best). — Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) August 11, 2017

NFL.com’s Marcus Grant cried from the mountains, exalting:

“The bottom line is that Elliott — who was a consensus top three fantasy draft pick — will miss approximately half of the fantasy regular season. At this point, there is no way he can be considered anything more than a fourth-round pick. While you’re getting a running back with top three talent when he returns, it also means holding a roster spot for the first two months of the season. It’s not a luxury that all fantasy managers will be able to afford.”

Even your favorite resident Wolf, clad with a Lloyd Christmas hair cut, had a dark initial “Rapid Reaction”:

Rapid #FantasyFootball Reaction to #Cowboys Ezekiel Elliott's 6 Game Suspension. Where does he fall? Dez impact? McFadden's value? ? Now! pic.twitter.com/DXGbhSJUm1 — Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) August 11, 2017

Thankfully, I’ve had some time to digest. I’ve done a few Draft Wizards and dug deeper into my Big Board. In the process, my stance has changed vehemently.

Berry, Barrett, Eisenberg, and Lora, you’re all wrong — Zeke shouldn’t sniff Round Three, never mind Round Four (psychos). Pianowski, I don’t care about the “level of competition” in my league, I can always draft enough depth to place hold a fantasy godsend like Zeke. And Grant, I wholeheartedly disagree that Zeke is an “unaffordable luxury.” In fact, I consider him a discounted gem that all owners, equipped with the right information and strategy, can afford and thrive with.

In fact, if you’re a strong enough fantasy drafter to weather a 6 week storm (read on and you will be), drafting Ezekiel Elliott in Round Two will win you a Fantasy Football title in 2017

To hear The Wolf and The Truth go head-to-head and debate this very topic, subscribe and download ‘The Fantasy Fullback Dive’ on iTunes or Stitcher, or listen above.

Why Ezekiel Elliott will win you a title in Round Two

1) The Talent:

Ezekiel Elliott is among the three fantasy cheat codes: a three-down workhorse, in an explosive offenses, behind incredible line.

Alongside only David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell, Elliott’s invaluable fantasy role creates a 20 point weekly floor and ceiling at an otherwise wildcard position. As a rookie Zeke was the No.2 fantasy running back and league-leader in rushing yardage (1,631 yds), finishing just six yards shy of 2,000 total alongside 16 total TDs and 32 receptions. He never dipped below double digit fantasy points, topping 20 seven times.

He was already a usage monster in 2016, posting an absurd 76% opportunity share thanks to a buffet of 354 touches. More impressive, this was all despite being vastly underutilized as a receiver. Now, with Lance Dunbar gone, the Cowboys fully plan to maximize Zeke’s incredible pass-blocking and route running even further in 2017; when asked about increasing his role as a pass-catcher, RBs coach Gary Brown noted:

“Absolutely. We’re going to try to get him the ball that way. We’re going to hand it to him, throw it to him, heck, if he can take a snap we might give it to him that way.”

Simply put, an utter workhorse could see his receiving usage double and approach Johnson and Bell levels in 2017. Meanwhile his line still remains dominant, as Doug Free‘s removal has been grossly over-exaggerated; new RT Lae’l Collins has the natural ability to surpass Free’s performance.

Fantasy situations simply don’t get juicier. Every single week he’s on the field, Elliott is a top-three fantasy play, regardless of the match up. This makes him a must-buy when considering…

2) The Arrival Time & Draft Price:

You’ll be receiving these incredible, top-three fantasy services, fresher & hungrier than ever, at the most crucial crunch time of the fantasy season… all without burning a first rounder.

For Wolves, fantasy isn’t about regular season records or simply earning a playoff berth. We play to win championships. A well-composed roster that receives a Week 8 injection of Angry Zeke will be nearly impossible to stop.

Think about it. While every other player carries a half-season’s worth of mileage and punishment, the bulldozing Elliott will be coming in fresher and hungrier than anyone else. Over the fantasy season’s final 10 weeks, only Johnson and Bell will rival Zeke’s output.

The crazy thing? Thanks to the suspension, you could possibly roster two of those three “cheat code” backs. Or Zeke and Antonio Brown (or Odell Beckham… or Mike Evans, Jordy Nelson, AJ Green…)

How could a team with Zeke and another surefire Round 1 stud lose? (Answer – it won’t).

Most often, the title-winning fantasy team has the best WR and/or RB duo or trio; last year, my LeSean McCoy and AB combo was narrowly edged out by Jay Ajayi and Zeke. Usually, you need to knock your top-two picks out of the park to accomplish this feat, and acquiring Zeke in Round Two would all-but-guarantee it. He and another top-five talent will be impossible to top from Week 10 on, and you’ll be locking in 40+ weekly points from only two roster spots.

Consider some the other names going in Round Two: Jordan Howard, Dez Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Todd Gurley, Isaiah Crowell, Lamar Miller. Even without the first six games, Zeke will tally more double digit PPR games than most of this list. Give me those 10 games of locked-in, elite production, at the most crucial fantasy time, rather than a full-season of the shaky inconsistency and risk that come with those other names.

Yes, you’ll need to swallow a little pride and accept a .500ish start to the year. This pill will be easy to put down once you’re hoisting the title because your Le’Veon and Zeke backfield steamrolled the league from Weeks 8-16.

“But Wolf,” you may whine. “I can’t win the league if I don’t make the playoffs.” Don’t worry, you will because…

3) Underrated RB (and WR) Depth Creates Cheap, but Useful Band-aids

2017 presents so many RB and WR values that you can still build a competitive roster for your six Zeke-less games.

Early on, most experts, including Matthew Berry and Jamey Eisenberg, have naturally turned to backup Darren McFadden as the preferred Zeke Band-aid. When considering 2017’s RB depth and discounts, this is a very short-sighted recommendation, and one that could put Zeke investors in a huge hole that’s tough to escape.

Let’s start by talking about why McFadden isn’t attractive himself. For one, the Cowboys RBs face the toughest run schedule in the league over the first five weeks:

Moreover, most beat writers expect McFadden won’t operate as a true featured back, and instead form a committee with Alfred Morris. Sorry Berry, but an injury-prone, 30 year old committee back is not the best patch up for your Zeke hole.

This is particularly poignant considering the 2017 depth of 2017’s RB pool; unlike most years, plenty of attractive water exists to fill a 6-game hole, making Zeke’s Round Two discount all the more attractive. Owners can easily build up a stable of horses and play the matchups / ride the hot hand.

Additionally, many of these names could explode and provide season-long worth, rather than a six week rental that becomes Waiver Rubbish after Week 7. Thus, here’s a number of players and backfields I consider far more worthwhile options at filling the early-season Zeke void than McFadden.

Middle Rounds:

Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook is a potential 300-touch guy, facing the 5th easiest early-season schedule, that can be had in Round 4. If you’ve gone WR – Zeke – WR early, Cook has the matchups and workload to become an early-season RB1.

is a potential 300-touch guy, facing the 5th easiest early-season schedule, that can be had in Round 4. If you’ve gone WR – Zeke – WR early, Cook has the matchups and workload to become an early-season RB1. Similar upside exists two rounds later, as Bilal Powell may catch 7-8 balls every game on a team that is constantly playing from behind. Similar to Cook, the matchups are also right to begin the year, with Powell facing the 4th easiest RB schedule in Weeks 1-5.

may catch 7-8 balls every game on a team that is constantly playing from behind. Similar to Cook, the matchups are also right to begin the year, with Powell facing the 4th easiest RB schedule in Weeks 1-5. Danny Woodhead falls to Round 8 and 9 in nearly every draft, and just joined a squad that averaged 7.3 RB receptions per game in 2016, second most in the league. His Week 1-5 schedule is the third easiest for RBs.

falls to Round 8 and 9 in nearly every draft, and just joined a squad that averaged 7.3 RB receptions per game in 2016, second most in the league. His Week 1-5 schedule is the third easiest for RBs. Lock up the Tampa Bay backfield of Doug Martin (68 ADP) and Jacquizz Rodgers (108 ADP) for a respective 6th and 9th round pick. Back in Muscle Hamster form, I like Martin to explode as an RB1 once he returns.

(68 ADP) and (108 ADP) for a respective 6th and 9th round pick. Back in Muscle Hamster form, I like Martin to explode as an RB1 once he returns. Mark Ingram has been a top-10 back for two straight seasons, and is falling deep into Round 5 or 6 right now. His counterpart, Adrian Peterson, can often be found in Rounds 7 or 8 and could score a TD every single week Elliott is out.

Later Rounds

Rob Kelley should see tons of red zone work as a featured back in one of the league’s more explosive attacks… and can often be had after Round 10.

should see tons of red zone work as a featured back in one of the league’s more explosive attacks… and can often be had after Round 10. Theo Riddick is slated for a broadened red zone role with Anquan Boldin ‘s 22 targets now gone, and actually had his best fantasy game in Week One while sharing the backfield with Ameer Abdullah (108 total yards, 2 TDs, five catches). He goes after Round 10 in most drafts.

is slated for a broadened red zone role with ‘s 22 targets now gone, and actually had his best fantasy game in Week One while sharing the backfield with (108 total yards, 2 TDs, five catches). He goes after Round 10 in most drafts. Hell, Jonathan Stewart and Terrance West are both starters on their respective teams, and will thus receive 12-15 touches behind decent lines and in decent offenses, while facing the 1st and 3rd easiest respective early-season RB schedules. Both go after pick 100 right now

and are both starters on their respective teams, and will thus receive 12-15 touches behind decent lines and in decent offenses, while facing the 1st and 3rd easiest respective early-season RB schedules. Both go after pick 100 right now James White has the Patriots ever-valuable third down back on lock, yet is tumbling into Round 11.

Clearly, building a stable of stopgaps behind Zeke is highly doable. Additionally, a plethora of cheap WR points are available in 2017 at severe discounts, making a competitive roster despite Zeke’s absence even more achievable.

Potential WR1s like Tyreek Hill and Martavis Bryant are falling to Rounds Four and Five, and nailing one or both of them at this discount would provide an enormous weekly ceiling boost to Zeke-less teams. Even more important to filling a roster hole, however, is securing sure point sources. Higher-floor options like Michael Crabtree and Larry Fitzgerald can be had in Rounds Four and Five, and are safe double-digit bets, especially to open the season.

Even more attractive, my WR22 Eric Decker is going at an absurd 98 overall price (as compared to my 45 overall rank), and will catch a TD more weeks than not. DeSean Jackson is similarly falling into the 90s, and a higher-usage role brings a sneaky floor with his obvious tremendous ceiling. Willie Snead and Jamison Crowder also profile as some serious dependability for a 6th – 7th round price.

Clearly, with a loaded supply of high floor RB and WR options available later than ever before, 2017’s fantasy market is ideal for Zeke investors.

Summary & Final Thoughts

Pessimism is understandable when breaking down tough situations. Yet, it’s often blinding.

As is often the case on Wall Street (and really in life), Roto Street Wolves thrive because they find light where others see dark. Last year, as others wailed over the addition of Derrick Henry, my more optimistic, and holistic, approach helped me identify DeMarco Murray as one of the best fantasy investments.

In 2017, it’s allowed me to realize Ezekiel Elliott will be a true season winner in Round Two.

Of course, Zeke falls from his Top-Three pedestal, and out of Round 1. Missing 50% of the season is, after all, a serious blow. Additionally, Zeke could be one more misstep away from a year-long ban. With these in mind, there are 15 talents I consider high-end RB1 or WR1s, cut off right at Devontae Freeman, who present better draft-day values than Zeke now.

After that, however, and I’m all in.

Remind yourself of the untouchable on-field fantasy value he presents. Realize you’ll be receiving the freshest and hungriest version of this monster at the most opportune time. Recognize the depth of 2017’s RB and WR pool, and how it can keep you highly competitive as you await for your dominant RB1 to be unleashed.

You’ll earn computer-generated D+ Draft Grades. You’ll have to potentially stomach a .500 start.

Ultimately, those mean nothing for owners who’re playing for championships. While the sheep zig into pessimism, be a Wolf and zag into this tremendous, season-winning fantasy opportunity.

To hear The Wolf and The Truth go head-to-head and debate this very topic, subscribe and download ‘The Fantasy Fullback Dive’ on iTunes or Stitcher, or listen above.