POLITICO Playbook: It’s 2010 all over again Presented by Amazon

DRIVING THE DAY

IT’S 2010 ALL OVER AGAIN … In 2010, Republicans were running to take over the House on promises that were hard to keep. They were saying they would repeal Obamacare with Barack Obama in the White House. They were promising to cut spending by billions of dollars, threatening to not raise the nation’s borrowing limit. The party was ascendant, but becoming deeply split along stark ideological lines.

REPUBLICANS TORMENTED Obama with a steady stream of investigations and subpoenas. They launched Washington into endless crises over six years.

-- FAST FORWARD TO 2018: Democrats are running to take over the House, with candidates promising to abolish ICE, and insure all Americans through a “Medicare for all” program. The party is becoming increasingly split -- self-avowed socialists are ascendant. The base is hungry for impeachment -- something the Democratic leadership has tried desperately to tamp down

THIS WILL HAVE REAL IMPACT. As of today, almost every Republican worth their weight in salt believes Democrats will win the House. Governing will be super messy for the party, given these lofty ideals.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN? It seems almost certain that, if Democrats take the House, they’ll be under tremendous pressure to torment PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP, and grind his agenda to a halt. They might not succeed in pushing their policies through divided Washington. But the tone and tenor of the campaign season is sure to spill over into governing.

Good Wednesday morning, and happy August!

ATTN. WHITE HOUSE … BIDEN WATCH -- “Poll: Biden leads Trump in early 2020 match-up,” by Stephanie Murray: “Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 7 percentage points in a head-to-head match-up, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll. A plurality of registered voters, 44 percent, said they’d choose Biden in the 2020 presidential election, while 37 percent of voters said they would vote for Trump.” POLITICO

HEADS UP … WSJ’S BOB DAVIS and LINGLING WEI: “Trump Advisers Urge Raising Additional China Tariffs to 25%”: “Trump administration advisers are debating measures that might bring Chinese negotiators to the table. Some are pushing the president to apply tariffs as high as 25% on $200 billion of Chinese imports, up from an original proposal for 10%.

“The White House won’t make a final decision until at least late August on those tariffs, which are likely to target consumer goods and food as well as machinery components. Advisers are justifying the steeper tariffs, in part, to make up for the rapid depreciation of the yuan in recent months. Since May 30, the yuan has fallen 6% against the dollar.” WSJ

MANAFORT TRIAL, DAY 2 -- DARREN SAMUELSOHN sends this dispatch: “Day 2 of the Manafort trial kicks off at 9:30 a.m., a start time that Judge T.S. Ellis III let the jurors pick after noting Northern Virginia’s notorious traffic problems that drew an intense series of nods from a man on the jury. ‘That’s why some of us don’t live here anymore,’ Ellis said.

“Witnesses: First for the government will be Democratic consultant Daniel Rabin, who also worked with Manafort in Ukraine. Then comes an FBI agent whose name Greg Andres refrained from divulging in court because he said he ‘routinely mispronounces’ it.

“Judge Ellis acknowledged the intense media coverage that’s being dedicated to the Manafort trial during one of his many rejoinders to the jury. As they prepared to head home for the night, he told them to avoid doing any personal research about the case, to sidestep any questions from inquiring relatives and to keep their distance if they come across a story about the trial. ‘Simply go out of the room or turn it off,’ the judge said. ‘That might even be more pleasant.’”

-- INSIDE THE COURTROOM: Samuelsohn emailed us that Judge Ellis made at least three references to “Baked Alaska” -- a dish he appears to like and “frequently invokes it when he tells the jurors that their free lunch won’t be that fancy.”

ALSO: “Some of Mueller’s witnesses have asked the court if they can have their lawyers with them when they take the stand. Judge Ellis said it was not something he typically allows but he’d consider ‘special requests’ at the appropriate time. ‘Otherwise,’ he said, ‘they can sit in the courtroom.’”

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APPROACHING A RIFT … “Trump feud with Koch network exposes rift between populist forces and establishment GOP,” by WaPo’s Bob Costa and Sean Sullivan: “On Monday, GOP senators privately deliberated about the path the Koch network has charted and its implications, according to two Republicans familiar with the discussions who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

“In a private meeting at the Capitol, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) recounted his visit to the Koch conference to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and other GOP senators and aides, and described the frustration he encountered over Trump’s trade policies and conduct, the Republicans said. Some senators in the meeting struggled to make sense of the Koch network’s new strategy of limiting its work for GOP candidates. ‘These guys want to change the direction of the country. They don’t understand how hard that is,’ McConnell said, according to one of the Republicans.” WaPo

-- REAL TALK: The Koch network is getting a lot of ink for standing up to Trump and saying it won’t dole out big campaign checks in certain races this cycle. But, it’s not like they are going to support a bunch of Democrats and really put any effort into changing the political makeup of Congress.

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ANNIE KARNI, “‘Everyone talked with Woodward’: Trump White House braces for new book: Unlike previous administrations, this White House had no process for making officials available to the legendary reporter”: “[T]he process for managing the book has not been as formal in President Donald Trump’s White House – in fact, there hasn’t been any process at all.

“According to half a dozen former administration officials and people close to the administration, Woodward was never officially granted access to the White House or to the president, and the communications department did nothing to help him in researching or writing his book. ...

“The result is what often happens in Trumpworld: Senior officials acting as lone wolves concerned with preserving their own reputations spoke to Woodward on their own – with some granting him hours of their time out of a fear of being the last person in the room to offer his or her viewpoint. As one former administration official put it: ‘He hooked somebody, and that put the fear of God in everyone else.’ Another former official added: ‘It’s gonna be killer. Everyone talked with Woodward.’” POLITICO

TAMPA BAY TIMES’ ADAM SMITH and STEVE CONTORNO: “Trump campaigns for Ron DeSantis (and himself) in Tampa”: “Declaring himself the most popular Republican in the history of America, President Donald Trump revved up thousands of fans Tuesday night at a rowdy Tampa Bay campaign rally to help gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis and, above all, celebrate Donald Trump. …

“One new element of this Trump was the widespread presence of people wearing T-shirts or carrying signs touting the fringe ‘QAnon’ conspiracy theorist. Among other things QAnon promotes is the notion that leading political and Hollywood elites are involved in a pedophilia ring and that leaders of the federal government’s ‘deep state’ have tried to kill President Trump.” TBT

ON THE ROAD AGAIN … ALEX ISENSTADT and ELENA SCHNEIDER: “Trump jumps into Ohio special election as GOP alarm grows”: “President Donald Trump will travel to Ohio on Saturday to campaign for Republican special election candidate Troy Balderson, according to a senior party official — a move that comes amid rising GOP fears about the race.

“A Republican loss, coming after special election defeats in Pennsylvania and Alabama, would be deeply deflating for the conservative base and party donors, and provide more evidence that a wave is building against them heading into the midterms. …

“While Trump has so far focused his campaigning in conservative states, he has largely stayed away from suburban areas, where he’s less popular and the battle for control of the House is largely being fought. The president received 52 percent of the vote in the district in 2016.” POLITICO

-- MEANWHILE: “Trump dodges risky Tennessee primary,” by Daniel Strauss and Chris Cadelago: “Rep. Diane Black is blanketing the air with TV ads claiming she has the White House imprimatur as the true Trump candidate in the Tennessee governor’s race. There’s just one problem: President Donald Trump has not actually endorsed her and has no plans to get involved in this Thursday’s primary, multiple Republicans in Tennessee and Washington with knowledge of the race told POLITICO.

“Word that Trump is staying out of the race is viewed as a potentially fatal blow to the Black campaign and enhances the prospects for businessmen Bill Lee and Randy Boyd in a divided primary for the Republican nomination to succeed term-limited Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam.” POLITICO

MORE FACEBOOK DETAILS … “Facebook’s new foreign influence report excluded most divisive rhetoric,” by NBC News’ Ben Collins and Ben Popken: “NBC News was able to retrieve some of the pages Facebook deleted via a web archive search, which allows people to see internet pages that have been deleted. A review of some of the deleted pages from groups identified by Facebook as part of the ‘inauthentic coordinated behavior’ found efforts to target people based on liberal politics as well as Hispanic and African heritage. One deleted post called for protesters to occupy the headquarters of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency.” NBC

AP: “House Speaker Paul Ryan uncovers Jewish roots on PBS show,” by Beth Harris: “House Speaker Paul Ryan was surprised and proud to find out he has Jewish roots. The Wisconsin Republican discovered his family history while filming a segment for the upcoming season of the PBS series ‘Finding Your Roots With Henry Louis Gates Jr.’

“Gates said Tuesday at a TV critics meeting that he traced Ryan’s heritage back to his 10th great-grandfather born in 1531 in Germany. The research showed Ryan is 3 percent Ashkenazi Jewish. ‘You could have knocked him over with a feather and then he was very proud of it,’ Gates said of Ryan’s reaction. ‘We don’t know who that Jewish person was, but we know it was on his mother’s German line, which makes sense. So somebody who was a Christian German slept with a Jewish German person and that’s where that came from.’” AP

-- SO, Paul Ryan is the first Jewish speaker. Bet Eric Cantor didn’t see that coming!

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JOHN BRESNAHAN and HEATHER CAYGLE: “The first black speaker?”: “The next speaker of the House could be a black Democrat. And Congress would never be the same. In 230 years, there’s never been a black speaker, or any black lawmaker seriously in the running for the post. That could change after voters go to the polls in November. …

“The members with the likeliest shot, according to more than 20 Democratic lawmakers and aides, include Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, currently the No. 3 House Democrat; Hakeem Jeffries of New York; Cedric Richmond of Louisiana, current chairman of the CBC; Elijah Cummings of Maryland; and Marcia Fudge of Ohio. ‘I think it’s more than a possibility. It’s a probability,’ said Fudge of the likelihood of a black speaker in 2019. Fudge strongly backs Clyburn for the job.” POLITICO

CNN’S MANU RAJU: “In private, Kavanaugh hints at views on Mueller”: “Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh has privately told senators he views the appointment of a special counsel by the Justice Department as appropriate, a comment that could shed new light about his views of Robert Mueller’s investigation into Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, according to sources familiar with the meetings.

“But Kavanaugh has also stood by his stated views that question whether a sitting U.S. president can be indicted on criminal charges, instead saying Congress should play the lead role in impeaching and removing a president -- and also enact a law ensuring a president can be indicted after leaving office.

“The comments, which multiple sources said were relayed to senators as he's made the rounds on Capitol Hill, give a glimpse into how Kavanaugh is carefully handling questions about his views on executive power at a time when Trump and his associates face growing legal pressure from the Mueller probe. The sources say the nominee is careful not to tip his hand on his views of the Mueller investigation’s constitutionality, given that he could rule on matters stemming from the probe, leaving ample questions about his views.” CNN

THE INVESTIGATIONS -- “Mueller refers foreign agent inquiries to New York prosecutors,” by CNN’s Erica Orden: “Special counsel Robert Mueller has referred a collection of cases to New York federal prosecutors concerning whether several high-profile American lobbyists and operatives failed to register their work as foreign agents, according to people familiar with the matter. The transfer of the inquiries marks an escalation of Mueller’s referrals to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York in the period since he turned over a case involving President Donald Trump’s former personal attorney, Michael Cohen.

“Since the spring, Mueller has referred matters to SDNY involving longtime Democratic lobbyist Tony Podesta and his work for his former firm, the Podesta Group, and former Minnesota Republican Rep. Vin Weber and his work for Mercury Public Affairs, the sources said.

“One source said that former Obama White House counsel Greg Craig, a former partner at law firm Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP, is also part of the inquiry. None of the entities involved have been charged with wrongdoing, and there is no indication the SDNY inquiry will result in criminal charges.” CNN

-- “Russian ‘Agent’ And A GOP Operator Left A Trail Of Cash, Documents Reveal,” by BuzzFeed’s Jason Leopold and Anthony Cormier: “A $45,000 payment to an undisclosed law firm. A cash withdrawal for $14,000. Almost $90,000 sent to or from a Russian bank. These and other bank transactions totaling nearly $300,000, none of which have been made public, offer the first detailed look at how an accused foreign agent and a Republican operative financed what prosecutors say was a Russian campaign to influence American politics.

“Anti-fraud investigators at Wells Fargo flagged the transactions — by Paul Erickson, a conservative consultant from South Dakota, and Maria Butina, who is in jail awaiting trial on charges of secretly acting as a Russian agent — as ‘suspicious,’ noting in some cases that they could find no ‘apparent economic, business, or lawful purpose’ to explain them.” BuzzFeed

THE JUICE …

-- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: TOP RETAILERS and e-commerce companies like Amazon, Express Scripts, National Retail Federation, Publishers Clearing House and QVC are launching the Package Coalition. The group has an initial funding of $1 million focused on earned and paid media inside the Beltway and in key states. It is focused on supporting and pushing policy that preserves the U.S. Postal Service and comes as Trump has launched a taskforce to review USPS’s business model.

-- THE TEXAS TRIBUNE has announced its speakers for the 2018 TEXAS TRIBUNE FESTIVAL Sept. 27-29 in Austin. Highlights include JOHN KERRY, NANCY PELOSI, JEFF FLAKE, ERIC HOLDER and BILL DE BLASIO. Jake will interview DEVAL PATRICK on Sept. 29 at 10:45 a.m. Anna will interview CECILE RICHARDS on Sept. 29 at 11:15. The full schedule

TRUMP’S WEDNESDAY -- The president is meeting with HUD Secretary Ben Carson in the morning. Later, he will meet with inner city pastors and will hold a meeting with Republican senators in the Oval Office.

PLAYBOOK ON THE ROAD -- Tweet or send us a photo of you or your friends reading Playbook on vacation to @playbookplus using hashtag #PlaybookLoyal or email them to Daniel at [email protected] for the chance to be featured this Friday.

PLAYBOOK READS

PHOTO DU JOUR: President Donald Trump holds a Make America Great Again Rally in Tampa, Florida on Tuesday. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

2020 WATCH … “Republicans abuzz over Schmidt’s divorce from GOP: The onetime McCain strategist won’t comment on his talks with potential 2020 Democrat Howard Schultz,” by Ben Schreckinger, Eliana Johnson and Daniel Lippman: “Steve Schmidt’s public break from the GOP and quiet departure from his corporate PR gig earlier this summer are fueling speculation in Republican circles that that he’ll advise a presidential bid by his longtime client, former Starbucks chief Howard Schultz, or another Democratic candidate in 2020. …

“‘I don’t have any plans to be on a political campaign, and I would never jump into one too lightly,’ Schmidt said in an interview. ‘Howard Schultz is a hell of a man, a hell of a leader. I’m proud to call him a friend, but there’s no campaign, and I don’t have anything to tell you.’ The speculation began in earnest in July, when Schmidt, who served as chief strategist to John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, abruptly stepped down as vice chairman of public affairs at the PR firm Edelman after eight years on the job.

“Schmidt’s moves coincided with Shultz’s announcement of his retirement from Starbucks, effective June 26. Schultz’s retirement has fanned speculation that he will run for president as a Democrat in 2020, a prospect with which he has openly toyed as he mulls his post-Starbucks future. Starbucks has been an Edelman client for 20 years, during which time the coffee chain has cultivated a progressive image and made itself a leader in corporate social responsibility.” POLITICO

-- L.A. TIMES’ SARAH WIRE: “Kamala Harris’ challenge in a 2020 presidential bid? Defining herself before her opponents do”

TOP-ED – “How Trump Could Be Like Reagan: Just as Ronald Reagan once pushed for abolishing nuclear weapons, President Trump should call for ending tariffs,” by Steve Moore, Art Laffer and Steve Forbes in the NYT. NYT

FOR YOUR RADAR -- “D.C. cyclists killed in Islamic State-claimed attack in former Soviet Central Asia,” by WaPo’s Amie Ferris-Rotman, Michael Brice-Saddler and Rachel Chason: “Two Washington residents who quit their office jobs last year to bike around the world were killed Sunday during an attack on bicyclists in Tajikistan that the Islamic State claimed to have carried out.

“Jay Austin and Lauren Geoghegan were among four people killed during the assault, which would have been the Islamic State’s first deadly attack in former Soviet Central Asia. ... Geoghegan, who had not spent much time on a bicycle before 2013, and Austin, who traveled little growing up, said they decided to travel the world on wheels ‘because life is short and the world is big and we want to make the most out of our youth and good health before they’re gone.’” WaPo



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MEDIAWATCH – “How chyrons took on a life of their own: In the age of Trump, cable news banners have become a medium for presidential fact-checking,” by WaPo’s Paul Farhi: “[C]hyrons not only tell viewers what the news is, they tell them what to make of it. … Chyrons began to evolve as real-time fact-checks during Trump’s 2016 campaign speeches — but more recently as a means to lift a rhetorical eyebrow over some questionable presidential statement or dramatic development. Trump himself reportedly pays close attention the bottom-of-the-screen banners, watching them on a muted TV during meetings and reacting angrily when they trumpet another presidential scandal, outrage or faux pas.” WaPo

-- “CBS Alleges Videotape of Ailing Mogul Sumner Redstone Felled Board Member,” by WSJ’s Joe Flint and Keach Hagey: “CBS Corp. alleged that its vice chairman, Shari Redstone, pushed to remove a board member earlier this year after he recorded a meeting with her father, CBS Chairman Emeritus Sumner Redstone, to document his medical condition. ...

“Mr. Redstone’s health has declined so significantly that he cannot speak much beyond grunts, and he has been at the center of years of litigation over his mental capacity, though he hasn’t been deemed incapacitated. Arnold Kopelson, a CBS director and longtime friend of Mr. Redstone, recorded his visit with the 95-year-old media mogul in January to, in his words, ‘memorialize Mr. Redstone’s physical state,’ according to the filing. CBS said the video shows that Mr. Redstone is ‘incapable of communicating his views on this case.’” WSJ

-- “Kushner Family Newspaper Cuts Ties With A Writer Who Attacked Kremlin Foes,” by BuzzFeed’s Steven Perlberg: “The Kushner family–owned New York Observer has cut ties with a writer who has, since 2014, authored dozens of pro-Kremlin articles for the website, the most recent a story in April offering Russia’s spin that the British staged Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons.

“‘The writer Mikhail Klikushin had a relationship with a former iteration of the Observer, but obviously new leadership tends to bring change, and we do not have any current plans to work with him in the future,’ Ben Robinson, the Observer’s editor-in-chief, said in a statement.” BuzzFeed

-- “The Times Throws a Monkey Wrench in Future Executive-Editor Runoff with Metro Appointment: Longtime favorites Joe Kahn and James Bennet must now contend with a new competitor—Cliff Levy, who has been chosen to lead New York coverage,” by Vanity Fair’s Joe Pompeo. VF

-- JOSH GERSTEIN is now an MSNBC contributor.

PLAYBOOKERS

SPOTTED: Ben Carson, staff and a security detail at the Albuquerque airport. He handled his own luggage as he boarded a Southwest flight to Baltimore ... Sen. Tom Udall (D-N.M.) sitting at the dining counter yesterday at Whole Foods on H Street.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Walt Houseknecht, executive director of operations at POLITICO, and Liane Houseknecht, senior associate at Federal Practice Group, welcomed Campbell Claire Houseknecht. Pic … Another pic

BIRTHDAYS OF THE DAY: Ed Gillespie, managing director and chair of SVC Public Affairs and former RNC chairman, is 57. How he got his start in politics: “I worked my way through school at Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C. My morning job was as a Senate parking lot attendant. One of the other parkers had an internship on the House side and told me there was another internship available in that office. I applied and ended up interning for Rep. Andy Ireland, who hired me after I was graduated from CUA.” Playbook Plus Q&A

-- Dan Shapiro, former ambassador to Israel now a distinguished visiting fellow Israeli think tank INSS, is 49. How he got his start in his career: “A State Department internship in the UAE early in graduate school, shortly after the first Gulf War, convinced me that I was more cut out to be a policy practitioner than an academic. When I came to Washington, I was hired by Rep. Lee Hamilton, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, as a Middle East policy adviser.” Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Dallas investor and Democratic fundraiser Cappy McGarr, executive producer of the Mark Twain Prize for American Humor and a creator of the award (hat tip: Robert) ... Ben Miller ... CSIS’ Andrew Schwartz is 5-0 ... Azi Paybarah, journalist and co-host of the new FAQ NYC podcast, is 4-0 ... Politico’s Chris Buddie and Emily Andrews ... David Helfenbein, SVP at strategic branding firm Main & Rose, is 32 (h/t wife Leigh Shirvan) ... Drew Littman, policy director at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck (h/t Jon Haber) ... former Rep. Sue Myrick (R-N.C.) is 77 ... former Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.) is 72 ... Mikayla Marie Hall ... Josh Davenport ... Travis Burk is 38 ... Joanna Knight, director of speechwriting and editorial services at EMILY’s List ... Corrie MacLaggan, managing editor of the Texas Tribune … David Cygielman is 37 ... James Adams is 25 (h/t TSG) ...

… Roy Loewenstein, communications director for the Montana Democratic Party ... Sheila Katz ... Dana Zureikat Daoud of the Jordanian Embassy ... Avi Arad is 7-0 … Jeffrey Bush ... Ellen Brown … Al D’Amato is 81 … Zachary Isaac Gold ... Adam W. G. Alles ... Chris Mayer ... Edelman’s Jordan Lubowitz ... Andrea Jones, McCain and ABC comms alum … Karen Marangi … Noah Sachs ... Josie Duckett McSpadden, senior comms officer at the Gates Foundation ... Benji Englander ... Rosanna Arlia …Scott Evertz ... Guy Short ... Andrew Gallo ... Ari Zoldan ... Tom Dougherty ... Chris Steeples … Larry Harrington ... Martin Hamburger is 55 ... Chris Hayler (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)

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