7th-8th picks offer early studs and late potential

By Stefan Arnold and Caleb Barnette, Fantasy Football Observer

Mock drafts are fun to do anytime, but you have to be … what’s the word … oh, yes, a degenerate … to do one in June. Or several.

So, earlier this month, Caleb and I decide to use Fantasypros.com dynasty rankings to see what type of teams we could begin to build. We didn’t want the easy early choices, so Caleb picked 7th, and I picked 8th in the first round and had the corresponding snake-draft picks through 10 rounds.

Note: Fantasy Pros dynasty rankings were updated on June 12. Some screenshots may not reflect the exact order available to us when we drafted on June 3.

Round 1, 2019 Dynasty Mock Draft

Caleb … Round 1, WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Bucs: There are very few players who see as many targets as Evans season after season. From 2015-2018, he received 594 targets – good for 6th-most in the league, which a definite great sign for the future. Targets tend to be one of the most predictive stats from one year to the next, and Evans is an established option at the beginning of the first round that offers an elite floor due to his volume.

Stefan … Round 1, WR Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers: I missed out on DeAndre Hopkins, so I’ll happily pick Adams. Of course, it’s hard not to love all the top WRs, but Adams may have the best combination of age, long term potential at QB, and overall opportunity and talent. Other WRs available to me may have issues, even small ones, in those departments.

Caleb … Round 2, WR Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys: Cooper has a lot to like when it comes to a player in the back half of the second round. As a WR prospect, he checks all of the boxes and is one of the few players outside of the first round in dynasty start-ups that have bonafide potential to move into that elite group. Cooper is just 25, has two 1000-yard seasons, and is one of the better prospects we have seen in recent years (99th percentile in breakout age and 93rd percentile dominator rating).

Stefan … Round 2, RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns: Chubb as my No. 1 is fine with me. I thought the drop off to the next running backs a bit steep, so I wanted to get my guy here. I’ll also lean heavily toward age at the top of dynasty drafts, and some of the best remaining WRs are getting a bit older (Keenan Allen is just 27, but Antonio Brown is 30).

Caleb … Round 3, RB Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions: Kerryon is a fantastic value here. Running backs that play in the NFL at age 21 are typically great bets to produce at a high level early on in their careers. They average just over five starts (top 24 RB) per season for their first three years, which is just under double what RBs who are drafted at age 22 produce (3.33). When it comes to RBs, chase situation, production, draft capital and age; Johnson has all four.

Stefan … Round 3, TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles: If I see a player who could be the No. 1 overall player at his position, I’ll take a more extended look at him during the draft (see my Round 5 pick). Ertz may be a step down from the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce, but the Eagles’ offense should be one of the best in the league, so I’ll roll with Ertz and his TE1 potential.

Caleb … Round 4, RB Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders: Jacobs is a Round 1 NFL Draft pick RB. Round 1 running backs produce a top-24 season at least once in their first three years in the NFL just over 90% of the time. There aren’t many safer bets than R1 RBs – so it would be wise to invest in one here.

Stefan … Round 4, WR Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons: I love Julio Jones. Love him. But Ridley, who scored 10 touchdowns on 821 receiving yards in his rookie season, may be Jones’ heir in the high-flying Falcons’ offense. Jones will hold the crown for at least a season or two more, but Ridley is more than fine as my WR2.

Caleb drafted Landry in Round 5. Stefan added Rodgers.

Caleb … Round 5, WR Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns: Much like Mike Evans earlier in the draft, this pick is all about targets. Landry is a target hog, and his ADP has dropped recently with the signing of Odell Beckham Jr. However, targets are usually sticky player-to-player, not to the WR number on the depth chart for a specific offense. Targets will still be there in a better Browns’ offense, and so will Landry’s point value.

Stefan … Round 5, QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: I usually won’t pick a quarterback this high, but Rodgers could easily be the No. 1 QB every year for the next half-decade. I also chose him to stack him with Adams. That pair every week? I have the edge against every other QB-WR1 over the season and each Sunday. Yes, please.

Caleb … Round 6, QB Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: Wilson has been one of the most efficient QBs in the league in recent years, and his weapons only improved this offseason. In addition to his high TD to INT ratio, Wilson offers a small rushing upside, and it would be reasonable to expect one or two rushing TDs a year. While he probably won’t ever be the QB1 in a season due to volume constraints, expect him to remain a top-10 QB seasonally for the next several years.

Stefan … Round 6, WR Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks: Two offseason changes for the Seahawks gave Lockett a boost (not that he needed it). Underappreciated WR Doug Baldwin was forced to retire due to injuries, and the Seahawks selected two wide receivers in the top four rounds of the draft. So, Lockett should absorb some work from Baldwin’s absence, and the Seahawks will probably throw more than last season with the added weapons. If Seattle opens up the offense (and they lost some pieces on defense as well), then Lockett will shine.

Caleb … Round 7, RB Royce Freeman, Denver Broncos: Freeman is a prospect a lot of people liked coming out of college, myself included. In his first year in the NFL, Freeman faced an astronomical amount of stacked boxes, running into eight-man defensive boxes 24.6% of the time – I would bet on that number to go down. And although Phillip Lindsay broke out in 2018, backs of his size profile usually aren’t great bets to stay healthy for extended periods, leading to more opportunity for Freeman.

Stefan … Round 7, WR Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals: Under new coach Kliff Kingsbury and his offensive attack, Kirk should soon rise to the top of the depth chart above aging Larry Fitzgerald. Although the Cardinals added wide receivers Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler and KeeSean Johnson in the draft, Kirk, who had 590 receiving yards and three touchdowns last season, is the wide receiver you want from the desert.

Caleb … Round 8, QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: Murray checks all of the boxes as a QB prospect, save only having one year of production (which can be forgiven being behind Baker Mayfield). The reason to buy Murray here is his tantalizing upside – someone with that rushing ability combined with his accuracy and arm strength is a rare talent. The investment at this price is a great one if you can stomach some risk.

Stefan … Round 8, RB Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams: Henderson is rising in drafts as continuing concerns surround the health of starter Todd Gurley’s knee. At this point in a dynasty draft, I feel comfortable taking players with upside. Henderson, a Memphis product, may have to fight off returning backup Malcolm Brown to see a lot of action. But if Gurley’s knee continues to be an issue, Henderson should be at least a flex option in the Rams’ offense this year with much higher potential in the coming seasons.

Caleb … Round 9 Julian Edelman, New England Patriots: The WR1 in the Patriots offense is always a good investment, but especially so when the WR1 is an extremely talented one who holds a great connection with Tom Brady. Although aging Edelman’s trade value may never rebound to a high level, the production he offers over the next 2-3 years at this price is hard to beat.

Stefan … Round 9, WR Keke Coutee, Houston Texans: This guy is my favorite player named Key’vantanie in the NFL. He only had 287/1 last season but is poised for much more with DeShaun Watson as his QB. Coutee’s value will shoot through the roof if current No. 2 WR Will Fuller continues to struggle with injuries. Even if he’s the nominal No. 3 WR for the Texans, Coutee is an outstanding young player whose value will only rise.

Caleb … Round 10, RB Damien Harris, New England: Harris is a sleeper with his current ADP. His opportunity is similar to Darrell Henderson, as they are both are good RB prospects behind RBs with serious injury concerns. However, Harris is much, much cheaper and could provide a similar return on investment.

Stefan … Round 10, RB Matt Breida, San Francisco 49ers: I love Breida’s talent, as I do Tevin Coleman’s, who just happened to sign with the 49ers this offseason. Add in 2018 signee Jerick McKinnon, and the 49ers have a crowded backfield. Breida (857/3) and McKinnon are both coming off injuries, so not only the is the backfield jammed, it’s going to be about who is available every week. At this point in the draft, I’ll take Breida’s talent and hope a trade gives him more opportunity in San Francisco or elsewhere.

Which team is better? Let us know in the comments or on Twitter.

As you can see from our roster construction, this dynasty mock draft wasn’t so much about building a complete team in a full draft. It was about the values of the players here and their potential in the future.

Dynasty and redraft mock drafts are vital to getting to know where players are landing so you can draft your guys, wait on the draft to come back to you and predict what your opponents are going to do. If you can, set the mock draft up with your league settings for more accurate values.

Check out other rankings and ADP values or try a mock draft on FantasyPros.com.

Caleb Barnette is a Dolphins fan and Liverpool diehard who loves the analytical side of fantasy football. Most of his dynasty football advice will come through statistics and data analysis. Follow Barnette on Twitter at _CalebBarnette.

Stefan Arnold is a Seahawks fan and the Editor of the Fantasy Football Observer. Follow Arnold on Twitter at FFObserver.