There’s a game of chicken going on in Iowa right now.

When Jeb Bush revealed this week that he will blow off the state GOP’s famed August straw poll, he left the future of the event to Scott Walker. Since all of the top tier presidential prospects are waiting to see who will compete before they commit to the straw poll this year, if the Wisconsin governor — and current Iowa front-runner — declines to participate, there’s a good chance Marco Rubio, Rand Paul and other candidates will follow suit.

The result is that the event, an Iowa tradition dating back to 1979, could become a mostly irrelevant contest between longshots and underdogs.

Walker, who’s publicly non-committal, leads in recent Iowa polls, may have the toughest decision of all — he’s damned if he plays and damned if he doesn’t. If he participates and loses, he risks looking like a fading candidate who peaked too soon. But if he plays it safe and skips the straw poll, he could badly alienate Iowa Republicans — more likely than not ending his status as the state’s perceived front-runner. At the same time, if Walker and every other top candidate skipped it, the damage to the 47-year-old governor would be minimal.

The importance of the straw poll to the state GOP was highlighted Saturday night when, with 11 candidates present to speak at the Iowa Republican Party Lincoln Dinner, Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kauffman opened Saturday’s confab with a video emphasizing the poll’s relevance. He was followed by Sen. Chuck Grassley, the leading Republican in the state, who stressed the seriousness of the tradition.

Two-thirds of Iowa Republican insiders think Walker should compete in the straw poll, according to this week’s edition of The POLITICO Caucus, a weekly pulse-taking of the most important activists, operatives and elected officials in the early states.

“Participate and you are expected to win, and must win,” said a top Iowa Republican, who is uncommitted and — like all 77 respondents – completed the weekly questionnaire anonymously in order to answer candidly. “Skip, and everyone thinks you’re a coward. Then watch your standing in the Iowa polls continue to drop. Walker needs to suck it up and use the event to cement himself as the frontrunner in the race.”

There is immense pressure from grassroots activists, who love the event and see shying away from it as proof of weakness or aloofness. “To be a frontrunner in Iowa with this standing, Walker needs to demonstrate that he can compete and win in a straw poll,” said another Republican.

But just as many GOP insiders said the Wisconsin governor would be foolish to fall into that trap. “Walker will underperform, if he goes,” said one. “He should avoid Tim Pawlenty’s outcome.” Another added, “No upside. Only downside to this event.”

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson have already telegraphed that that they will play to win.

While Ron Paul’s campaign was obsessed with straw polls the previous two presidential elections — the then-Texas congressman finished second at Ames in 2011 — his son, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, isn’t as committed. He’s more focused on winning actual elections and has told aides that he’s not as interested as his father in artificial tests of his strength.

A spokesman for the younger Paul said he hasn’t decided whether to come or not.

Representatives for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee — who won the 2008 Iowa caucuses — and former Hewlett Packard head Carly Fiorina were also non-committal. For Huckabee and Rick Santorum, the 2012 caucus winner, participating is risky because it could highlight how many of their former supporters are not signed on for 2016.

To feel good about his chances, Walker would probably have to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars. Campaigns need to bus in supporters from around the state on a summer Saturday, no small feat. But expectations would be almost unachievably high since he’s been leading the pack in polling since January. Even if he won the straw poll handily, Walker’s opponents will dismiss the victory as unsurprising.

All of that makes Walker’s straw poll decision arguably the most significant strategic decision he will make about Iowa in 2015.

The straw poll needs Walker more than he needs it. If all the top-tier candidates bypass the event, it will not get nearly as much media attention as in the past.

“If Walker backs out, the Iowa straw poll is in big trouble,” said a top uncommitted Iowa Republican.

The state Republican Party has been using carrots and sticks to coax Walker and others to play at the event, which is moving from Ames to Boone this year. Instead of auctioning off space to raise money from the campaigns, for instance, they’re assigning it to them – whether they will use it or not. There will also be food trucks, so that the campaigns do not need to cater the event themselves if they don’t want to. This will make it glaringly obvious who is not there and take away one of the main rationales – at least publicly – for skipping.

“Neither Walker nor Rubio can afford to do the Straw Poll without the other,” said an uncommitted Iowa Republican. “So, who blinks first in bowing out? Assuming they both decline, an Iowa Straw Poll without Walker, Rubio and Bush, might as well be renamed the Iowa 2nd Tier Candidate Straw Poll. Upside in that? It might make the event go away once and for all.”

Sources close to Walker’s campaign-in-waiting insist that he has not made up his mind. Because he will not announce his candidacy until after the Wisconsin legislative session wraps up later this spring, he has at least a few more weeks to avoid taking a public position. “He’s not a candidate and hasn’t made a decision on his future, so this will come down the line,” said one Walker aide.

But the event is only three months away, and the clock is ticking.

Walker has hired consultants, such as David Polyansky and Eric Woolson, who have extensive experience organizing the kind of field operation needed to win past straw polls. “Scott Walker is the Iowa frontrunner and has hired several key Iowa advisers who know how to put on a successful straw poll operation,” said an Iowa Republican aligned with a rival campaign. “If he doesn’t play, he is ceding his frontrunner status to someone who takes Iowa more seriously and it will be very difficult to get it back.”

Walker allies say that the pressure should be on Rubio as much as it is them. The Florida senator has not been as aggressive at trying to downplay expectations. On his last trip to the state, he said he will play to win. The same day, Walker said he would be happy finishing in the top three.

A Rubio spokesman did not respond to three requests for comment this week on whether the senator will compete.

Bush’s decision to skip the straw poll didn’t come as a surprise. He did not seriously consider it, sources familiar with his thinking said — despite the fact his brother won in 2000 and his father won the inaugural straw poll in 1979. That doesn’t mean Bush won’t compete in Iowa; after a four month absence, he had three events scheduled in the state this weekend. Bush, an establishment favorite, trailed six other Republican presidential hopefuls in Quinnipiac’s Iowa poll earlier this month.

“It’s a predictable decision for Jeb Bush and the right decision,” said John Weaver, who served as an adviser to John McCain’s 2008 campaign and along with Mike Murphy, now one of Bush’s main strategists, convinced the Arizona senator (and eventual GOP nominee) to skip the 2007 straw poll. Romney won that straw poll, but Mike Huckabee got the bounce in the polls afterward by finishing a surprisingly strong second. In 2011, Romney skipped the straw poll and wound up basically tying for first on caucus night.

“After Michele Bachmann [who won the event in 2011], to say this has any relevance, significance, influence, doesn’t pass the straight face test,” said Steve Schmidt, McCain’s 2008 campaign manager. “The straw poll simply wasn’t worth the time and the money in the context of how little meaning it had in relation to the outcome of the caucuses.”

Bush, along with Walker, Rick Perry, Carly Fiorina and others, has committed to attend a conservative cattle call in Atlanta hosted by RedState founder Erick Erickson that is concurrent to the straw poll. South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham has also already ruled out attendance.

The Iowa GOP’s Kaufmann took aim directly at Bush on Twitter Tuesday as reports of his decision to appear in Atlanta on Aug. 8, the day of the straw poll, surfaced.

“We hope Governor Bush rethinks his decision and realizes that grassroots will only grow in Iowa if he waters them,” the state party chair tweeted. “The RedState Gathering is a four-day event and other candidates have already indicated that they will be attending both. We don’t buy this excuse and neither will Iowans.”

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.