Breaking Down the Latest Mock Draft by Davis Mattek from Roto Experts

Welcome back to Attack the Mock (believe, bruv!) where we explore and deconstruct a mock draft for the 2019 NFL Draft, and talk to the analyst about their process.

We’ve attacked some mocks, from some longtime experts: Derek Whoolery. Dan Kadar. Jeff Risdon. Ryan Dunbar. Ray Mencio. But today is especially exciting for me, as I get to look under the proverbial hood of a mock from an extremely promising first-timer, Davis Mattek. Known in the fantasy world for his work with Roto Experts, and their NFL365 package, Davis decided to add his voice to the mock draft conversation. And I’m really glad he did, because when I was looking over his picks as I entered it into our 2019 NFL Mock Draft Database (bookmark it for your brain) it was immediately clear that we had something special on our hands.

Here is a link to the FULL MOCK DRAFT, so you can follow along at home.

And it’s also very important for me to point out that this mock was made before the combine. Even though the article is coming out now as the combine is wrapping up, Mattek had no combine results (or rumors) when he made this mock.

Check it out. Get inspired. Then make your own mock draft using the MockOut app, the best place to make a mock draft and invite your friends to join your mock draft pool.

Let’s dig in.

Micky: How did you start your first ever mock draft? Did you go in order? Or did you find some good player-team matches then fill in around them?

Davis: I started the mock by going in order. I had some ideas of players that made sense for particular teams but also wanted the best players at their positions to be represented in the first round. There were probably some spots where I diverged from what is most likely to provide picks that make sense.

As I do more of these mocks, I find I am pretty much the only mock maker in America who will go out of order with my favorite player-team matches, then fill in around them. If I have another bad year in my contests, I might have to reconsider my approach.

Let’s get right to the first pick, which he had predicted would be Kyler Murray—again, before reports started flying out from Indianapolis.





1. Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma

Micky: Let’s start at the top! Kyler Murray to the Cards. Tell me everything that went into this pick. Is Kyler better than Rosen+Bosa? What is a realistic trade scenario for Rosen here? Who do you think might be interested, and what do you see them giving up for him?

Davis: Kyler, for my money, is better than Rosen+Bosa. I think the most likely scenario is that Rosen gets traded away for pretty significant value. I think that the Giants, Bengals and Dolphins are all teams that should have interest in Rosen and have the assets to make a trade work. The Giants trading their 2nd round pick for Rosen feels like a good scenario (though it would invalidate the Haskins pick).

In the week leading up to the combine, there were 21 mocks updated or added to the mock draft database. Of those, Murray was mocked to ARI in exactly two; Mattek’s and Peter Schrager’s. And they both came out on the same day. That’s good company.

I guess the real question here is, do you believe what the coaches/GMs are telling you? Last year, when the Giants pretty much came out and said they’d take Barkley, I didn’t believe it. I thought it was a smokescreen intended to force a trade, and that they would have to go QB. I was wrong. This year, I am more believing of what we all hear.

Now, for the pick. Is it okay for me to say I am a big Rosen fan AND I think they should take Murray and trade Rosen? Because that’s how I’m feeling. I think Rosen will be an excellent NFL QB. But I think he will work best within a more traditional/West Coast passing attack. He’s not a great fit for the Air Raid that seems to be making its way to the Cardinals. Kyler is a great fit. I personally think ARI can get far more for Rosen than the third rounder that is being suggested.

But where do I think he lands, and at what cost? Stay tuned for my next mock, coming soon.

Enough about me! Back to Mattek.





7. Josh Allen, OLB Kentucky

Micky: I want to talk about this Jaguars pick, in the abstract and also specifically. First of all, you acknowledge that JAX has a horrible situation… but you have them standing pat at pick 7 and taking Allen instead of reaching Lock. This brings up the fact that you predicted no trades in this mock. Why no trades? Now, about the specific pick, why do you have them going pass rusher when they’ve got Yannick and Calais starting?

Davis: The Jaguars are not going to fix their team by taking Drew Lock, Haskins or Grier. They just do not have the infrastructure in place to be good right away. EDGE rushers are like security bonds. Unless they are total junk, they are going to provide value to their team for years upon years and are likely to sign a 2nd contract with the team that drafted them. Also, having 3 edge rushers is NOT a bad thing, particularly when one of the rushers is past prime age. The reason for not making trades is that I have not heard any good concrete info on realistic trades. While I love wild speculation, I wanted to keep this mock as grounded as possible.

There’s a lot to unpack here, but I have to start with the pick itself. I personally… love it. I think Allen would fit in supremely well with the culture there, he is the kind of player they would definitely take, it is super contrarian (I haven’t seen this pick hardly anywhere) and they have a little bit of a track record of taking a player at a position that isn’t an immediate need (Taven Bryan) but soon will be. They look toward the future, and this pick fits with how they operate. This is a pick he should hang his hat on.

As for the idea of not predicting trades? Well, I just can’t get on board with that. Of course Davis isn’t the only person making mocks and not predicting trades- tons of people do it that way. But that’s like playing Mario Brothers and deciding to never use fireballs. (sorry, am I super old?) You’re only playing half the game! You’re only exercising half your brain, and only exploring half of the possibilities!

This is less a criticism of his mock and more a plea for the future. I want to read all of the predictions Davis has to give, trades included! I want that from everyone.

Shuffling forward a few picks, to the Bengals.





11. Cody Ford, OT Oklahoma

Micky: The Bengals draft Cody Ford at pick 11. Don’t you know the Bengals have to draft Devin White, if he is there? Every mock says so. Mine included. So why Ford over Devin?

Davis: The Bengals have a new offensive coach. He is from the #McVay brand of coaches who are going to focus on offense first and nothing sets an offense up for success like an elite offensive lineman. For my money, Ford is one of the best lineman prospects of the last few years and I think he can help the Bengals press the reset button in a much more meaningful way than any linebacker could.

Now do you see why I asked to attack this mock? Is it not apparent?! It’s this kind of rational, yet contrarian thinking that wins mock draft contests. Now, I don’t know if this pick will happen, or even if I will change my pick to match his (especially given Devin’s combine) but it sure has a very realistic shot of happening. I’d say I’m 50/50 right now. But if two picks are about equally plausible, and 99% of mock drafts pick one dude and 1% the other, of course you’ve got to go contrarian there.

As for the specific player, I also love Cody Ford. I think he is one of the best members of one of the best O-line classes (at the top, anyway) in a while. The Bengals have a really big need at the Tackle positions and at Guard, and Ford has the positional flexibility to slot in wherever he is needed and excel.

I still might go Devin White here, only because of positional scarcity. The gap between Devin White and a LB who might be available early in round 2 (who would that even be? Mack Wilson, maybe?) is way bigger than the gap between Ford and an O-lineman who could be there in round 2 (Cajuste, Risner, Edwards, McCoy, Lindstrom, others?). Whichever pick I make here, I’m not making it with certainty.





15. Brian Burns, OLB Florida

Micky: Washington takes an amazing pass rusher, which I always approve of… but the way this mock has fallen, their starting QB for 2019 will be…? Fill in the blank. What do you see is Washington’s plan at the QB position next year, and their overall strategy for how to build their team for the future?

Davis: Washington’s QB could be Josh Johnson, it could be Josh Rosen, it could be Ryan Fitzpatrick, it could be anyone. Washington is just going to suck in 2019. They are a talent-devoid team that owes a player who physically can’t play 25 million dollars. Much like the Jaguars, they should just be trying to gain assets that will appreciate over the next few years while they try and figure out what to do with Alex Smith’s money. If I was in charge of Washington, I would be adding athletes and high-upside players across the board to try and gain as much value as possible over the next 18 months and not tying up dead cap dollars.

I have to say, I don’t agree with his assessment of the State of Washington’s Roster. They were doing really well last year, before injuries derailed their season. I also implicitly predicted they would win their division last year in my Custom Draft Order Mock Draft, so I am bullish on their future prospects. And even with the injuries, they finished respectably. Guice will return, and I like him as the workhorse of that offense.

But the Alex Smith problem he brings up is a real problem, and I have no idea how they will address it. My best guess is Rosen, because I think he fits very well with Gruden’s West Coast offense, and he could see much better success behind a significantly better O-line than he was gifted in ARI. But if I am correct about Rosen’s value, and he would end up costing WAS that 15th pick (and the opportunity to add a player of Burns’ caliber) it would be a tough pill to swallow. Forced to bet my immense family fortune, I’d say I think Arizona picks at 15 in April.

You know what else the Skins could use? A wide receiver. And man, the combine just confirmed how crazy good this year’s class is. I asked Davis about where he had the top prospects ranked.

Micky: WR rankings! The way your mock tells it, you’ve got Harry going in the top-10, then Metcalf, Harmon, and JJAW in the 20s. Are these your WR rankings, with Harry is the clear-cut top option and a few big guys bunched up half a round later, or did the specific player-team fits inform these picks?

Davis: In general, the way I approached the wide receivers was with no team-specific fit but just putting them as I ranked them other than Arcega-Whiteside who I think is an elite fit in Indy. However, after the combine, my man Hakeem Butler is going to leapfrog Kelvin Harmon and I think he could end going in the first round. If I had my druthers, most of these wide receivers would go in the first round because I think it is a pretty stellar group of guys.

Your man Hakeem Butler? YOUR man Hakeem Butler??? MY MAN Hakeem Butler. So we are in agreement there, for sure. There is going to be some really great WR value in the second and third rounds, and it breaks my little heart that the Hawks don’t have a second round pick (yet). I think I might have been a little low on Harry (he’s awesome) very low on Metcalf (I’m still not totally sold, but he’s sure better than the WR12 I listed him at) but I still like my JJAW ranking.

I’m going to focus more on scheme fit for the WRs and teams that I know about. For example, I think the Raiders have no need for a deep threat considering the dink/dunk nature of their offense. They need big strong short area catchers with great RAC ability. They need N’Keal Harry or A.J. Brown. But then you get guys like Metcalf, Butler, Sills V who will clearly work best in a vertical passing offense. Playmakers like Deebo and Parris just need to get hooked up with creative playcallers who get their athletes in space.

It’s about time to wrap this thing up. Last question!

Micky: Which picks are you happiest with at this point? The ones where you lean back with a content smile and say, “Yup. Locked.” Which ones are you not so happy with, or think will probably change before draft day?

Davis: Kyler to the Cardinals is the most obvious one, as well as Bosa to the 49ers. Noah Fant to the Packers would make the happiest if it actually happened but a pick I would certainly change is how low I was on Montez Sweat. He crushed the combine and will go much higher than I had him.

Ah, the perils of making a mock draft just before a big event like the combine… don’t you know you should make one right AFTER the combine? Or such is the easy way out.

In fact, making a mock pre-combine (or pre-free agency, as some masochistic fool I know is about to do) is actually putting in good work. Make your picks with one set of knowledge, then change them once the data comes in and you see where you might have been a bit off. It’s not wasted time any more than basketball practice is a waste of time because you aren’t in a game. You are honing your skills. Sharpening that blade.

I’d like to add Bradbury to MIN and Ferrell to TEN as a couple more picks he should be really happy with. I like them, anyway. As for the ones he’ll have to change… look at the combine results and move White and Sweat up (and Little back) as much as you feel is right.

My goodness! What a great first stab at a mock, with the kind of sensible-yet-contrarian picks that only fresh eyes can see. Thanks for being willing to let me dig around in there. I know I have more questions now than I did before I saw the mock, which is pretty much the aim for this entire series. I just know I’m going to walk through my days now with Cody Ford on one shoulder and Devin White on the other…

You should all keep up with everything on Roto Experts. Hopefully this is just the first of many trips into NFL Draft content to go along with their already-excellent fantasy content.

And remember! There are hundreds of mocks out there, just begging to be attacked…