“You do build up a lot of belief and confidence throughout a season – but leading into the finals, players understand where each player is at, and everyone’s carrying bumps and bruises." We've seen a common critique recently with teams such as Souths, Penrith, and especially the Dragons. They lost a game? Put a line through them. They've peaked too early. But what's really happening? Penrith lost this week without James Maloney, who has taken success with him wherever he's gone this decade. The Rabbitohs, fresh from a shellacking of the mighty Storm, lost a close game to their arch-rivals and were then thumped by Brisbane – but both of those defeats came without their entire first-choice back line, bar an out-of-position Dane Gagai.

And the Dragons? They've lost Paul Vaughan and a whole bunch of recent games. But right now, they're still sitting in the top four, if only by a thread. It's easy to look at a team who go on a massive tear in the middle of the year, only to falter as we head towards spring, and write them off – but the 2016 Sharks serve as the biggest cautionary tale to this way of thinking. Shane Flanagan's men went on a 15-game winning streak, before stumbling massively in August. Aside from a win over the Roosters, who ran second last, Cronulla took a single point from their other five games to close out the year. A draw with the Titans and four losses saw them slip from first to third in the blink of an eye, and fans left thinking that once again, the porch lamp would be left on. And then, it happened. They made the finals without any injury woes and the rest is history. Michael Ennis does the Viking Clap in Canberra, Maloney pulls off a 65m intercept against the Cowboys to seal their spot in the big one and then, of course, Andrew Fifita's herculean effort in the decider. Maguire's Rabbitohs were one of those teams to beat the Sharks in the closing rounds. But did he think that meant it was time to write Cronulla off?

“Not at all," he said. “When you go into the finals you’ve got 17 men who will turn up and play their best footy – so if you look at someone like Cronulla, they had quality across the park in most positions. "In the back end of the rounds, you might drop one here or there but when you look sideways at the bigger name players in the team you know you’ve got the calibre to step up in the finals." This isn't to say that losing games before the finals is a good thing, but more that perhaps the knee-jerk reactions that see a new team crowned as the premiers-elect every week aren't particularly helpful. "When you get to the finals, there’s a reason people say ‘it’s like the start of a new season’. The bumps and bruises disappear," Maguire says.

"You’ve got to have your best players on the park, that’s the key. The most successful teams are the ones that have the top end of their cap running around on the park." And if you look at the contenders, plenty of them have top-tier talent on the comeback trail. The Rabbitohs welcome back Greg Inglis, Campbell Graham and Alex Johnston this week, with Robert Jennings not far away. The Warriors have barely had their first-choice 17 all year, but are on track to be at full strength by round 25. Maloney will return for the Panthers, and Luke Keary for the Roosters – two exciting pivots with grand final wins under their belt. Maguire noted Keary's late return in 2014 (he missed the first 16 rounds with a pectoral injury) as a ‘major catalyst’ for the team's success. Dangerman: Anthony Milford dives over to score for the Broncos. Credit:AAP

The Storm will get troops back in the coming weeks as well. The only two teams that look like they'll truly be understrength in September are Brisbane and the Dragons – but is it beyond the realms of possibility that Wayne Bennett's men can get it done with several forwards out for the season? The way Anthony Milford is playing, you wouldn't bet against it. "I think the competition’s getting tighter and tighter … I think any team in that top eight has the capability to go on and win it," Maguire adds. And looking at the ladder situation, he's right. Anyone could secure a top-four place, and anyone could be fighting for their lives in week one – the only thing that's certain is that you'd be a fool to a draw line through any of them.