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There was a time, not long ago, when the attendance of the Moscow derby between Spartak and CSKA filled the enormous Luzhniki stadium. I clearly remember the derby on August 28, 2011 when no less than 70,000 fans turned up to watch Russia’s biggest match. Today, five years later, the situation has changed…

The current situation:

The RFPL attendance has been declining since the 2012/13 season, and last season’s average attendance per game of 10,151 was the worst average attendance in the past ten years.

“In previous years,” RFPL President Sergey Pryadkin said, when he was asked about the poor attendances, “the average number of spectators varied between 12 and 13000 spectators.” He explained the disappointing numbers with the fact that CSKA and Dinamo both play at the Arena Khimki in the outskirts of Moscow, which can only accommodate 18636 spectators, and that they don’t have their own stadia at the moment.

New stadia, new hope?

There are however also reasons for optimism. Major clubs like CSKA, Zenit, Krasnodar and Dinamo will all move into brand new grounds soon, which should boost the attendance. CSKA and Dinamo will both get their own stadium, which are both closer to the center of Moscow than Arena Khimki. Meanwhile, Krasnodar will also move into their own brand new stadium from Kuban Stadium, which they are currently renting for their home matches. Pryadkin is also aware of this, and he has stated that he hopes that these new stadiums will boost the number of spectators, a hope he builds on the fact that both Spartak and Rubin experienced spectator growth after they moved into their new stadiums in 2014.

This does however seem to be a bit of a mirage, because even though their stadiums are brand new, they still have plenty of empty seats every week, with Rubin managing to fill less than 40 % of the seats in average. Spartak are also struggling to fill their stadium, especially against smaller sides, but the filled stadia in the derbies against Zenit and CSKA are pulling their numbers up.

It should however also be noted that while Spartak’s occupancy might be a bit disappointing, they are still the driving force behind this matter. In 16 of the first 21 rounds, Spartak’s game had the most spectators in the round, while the three games with the highest attendance this season have also all included Spartak. The Red-Whites have some of Russia’s most faithful supporters, and furthermore, they have supporters all over the country, which means their sectors are full no matter where the team plays.

What’s interesting looking at the table above is that it shows just how difficult it is for big clubs like CSKA, Krasnodar, Rubin, Dinamo, Kuban and Lokomotiv to fill their stadiums. Despite Lokomotiv competing at the top of the table, and performing well this season, the spectators are staying away from Lokomotiv Stadium. Just 15,595 showed up to watch Lokomotiv’s Europa League match against Fenerbahce in March, and last week only two thirds of the stadium were filled when CSKA visited. Reconstructed and modernized in 2002, Lokomotiv’s stadium is also a scary example of the fact that a new stadium doesn’t automatically equal more spectators.

Compared to the previous table, we can see some surprising clubs near the top. The Chechen club Terek have performed well this season, and have for a long time been one of the better-supported clubs when playing at home at the Akhmat Arena in Grozny. Rostov being at the top as well is no surprise, given their fairy-tale season so far.

Another club that proves you doesn’t have to be from Moscow or St. Petersburg to be well-supported is Krylya Sovetov. Despite having to play two games in Saransk due to the poor pitch at their home stadium in Samara, they are still among the best supported teams at home. The two games in Saransk against Zenit and Rostov drew a combined 8600 spectators, which makes the average shown above even more impressive.

Not just a question of weather…

What’s more disturbing and worrying about the Russian attendances is that the average is declining each round. Many people are talking about the climate being one of the reasons for why the spectators are staying at home instead of going to the Russian stadia. However, in the Soviet era, the statistics were significantly better. The 1971 season for example averaged 30110 spectators per game, although the quality of the teams and the living conditions in general were worse than today.

One could however also argue that the amount of entertainment possibilities is also bigger now, which means there is more competition for domestic football games. In an article on Russian Football News last year, Vladislav Ryabov outlined this issue, highlighting two remarks his mates often told him when he asked if wanted to visit Zenit’s games with him:

“Why go to a stadium to watch them if one, for example, can stay at home instead and watch some English Premier-League fixture on TV?” my friend once asked me. Another one said that he would rather be “sitting cozily on a sofa in a warm room, with the instant replays on their screens, having some food on hand, rather than on a cold plastic seat at some bleak stadium with no comfort at all”.

Regarding the weather, it is clear that the fans obviously prefer to watch football during the summer, and therefore the changes in the Russian game calendar from spring-to-fall to autumn-to spring, is most likely a part of the explanation of the declining numbers. When that is said, it is unlikely that another change in the calendar would immidiately bring the fans back to the stadiums – that’s too simplistic an explanation.

No, it seems to me that the problem is deeper and must be sought in the level of game proposed by the teams.

In France, for example, some media criticized the level of Ligue 1 in order to explain the declining attendances. It seems to be the same for the RFPL. While infrastructure certainly improves the experience of visiting stadia, the football is the most important thing, and therefore the disappointing results and performances delivered by a club like Spartak have definitely taken their toll on attendances.

Apart from the supporters who are prepared to go to the stadium regardless of the weather or the level of their team, football is a matter of trying to entertain people, which also explains why the people of Rostov-on-Don are flocking to the stadium.

Another factor to include in the discussion is that Russians identify themselves with Russian players. The limit of legionaries in the squads does not help the RFPL to export its football, but the fact that Russian players are on the pitch does make it more attractive for Russians. As Vladislav Ryabov wrote on Russian Football News last year, the fact that Russians were benched in favour of foreigners had an impact on the attendance at Zenit despite all of their success:

“For example, the average attendance at Petrovsky stadium in St. Petersburg started diminishing after Zenit ceased to rely on ‘lads from their backyards’ like Aleksandr Kerzhakov and Andrey Arshavin. And in Moscow only a miserable couple of thousand fans travel to Cherkizovo to watch Lokomotiv Moscow play, whereas in the beginning of the century with personalities such as Ovchinnikov, Loskov, Evseev in the squad the club could boast full stands.”

The World Cup 2018 as a stepping stone.

At the moment, Pryadkin and the rest of the RFPL authorities seem to be laying all their eggs in the basket of the new stadia improving spectator numbers. With the 2018 World Cup coming up, new stadia are being built all across Western Russia with clubs waiting to move in.

While the stadium upgrade is certainly needed, there remain some unanswered questions about the new World Cup venues. Of the 12 new stadia, just seven of them host RFPL clubs. While Spartak and Rubin are already using their new grounds, new ones are also being constructed in St. Petersburg (Zenit), Yekaterinburg (Ural), Samara (Krylya Sovetov), Rostov-on-Don (Rostov) and Saransk (Mordovia). Of these clubs, Krylya Sovetov and Mordovia are currently battling to avoid relegation, while Ural and Mordovia are the two worst supported clubs in the league.

On top of this, the new stadia in Volgograd, Kaliningrad and Nizhny Novgorod are all unlikely to host a RFPL side anytime soon, as their club’s Rotor, Baltika and Volga all find themselves far from the top flight. Last but not least, Sochi doesn’t even have a professional football team, which is why there have been rumours of Kuban moving there.

It seems that the hope at the moment is a kind of magic solution where the new stadia will suddenly boost attendances. While the average attendance will most likely rise with the new grounds coming, especially for the big clubs, there is still a lot of work to be done, and there are problems to be solved before Russian clubs are able to compete with the biggest leagues around Europe regarding seat occupancy.

Graphs and tables are from an article in March 31 from Mikhail Borzykin on Sovsport.ru titled ” Spartak and emptiness. Poor attendance RFPL in tables and charts “

Follow Vincent on Twitter: @Spartak_M_VT