We would like to thank Mattias Lindgren from the Gapminder Foundation for a highly productive email exchange on the quality of the Gapminder data used in this study. His remarks inspired a number of robustness tests. We are also thankful to Ali Sina Önder and Alejandra Montoya Agudelo for inspiring discussions. All remaining errors are our own. Elements of this article have been inspired by the preparation of the DFG Cluster of Excellence EXC 2052 Africa Multiple at the University of Bayreuth. An appendix and data for replication purposes are available at 〈https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.7902353.v1〉. The views and results expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik.