





Trevor Richards (MIA), 12% at Home vs STL, Tuesday, August 7th

I wrote about Trevor Richards in my Weekly Rundown yesterday and came away more impressed than I thought. I think the Cardinals pose a relatively difficult task, but the team is kind of a mess. In the last 30 days, the Cardinals are ranked 17th in terms of wOBA and that’s basically thanks to Matt Carpenter. Remove him and the offense has been terrible. Richards is on a roll with a 1.02 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in his last three starts with 21 strikeouts. He’s faced the Rays, the Nationals, and the Phillies, so it’s not like he’s facing all cupcakes. There’s always the chance to get tied to the WHIP-ing Post with rookie pitchers, but I’ll ride the hot hand. STREAM

John Gant (STL), 4% on the Road vs MIA, Wednesday, August 8th

I guess I’ll just stick with this matchup because, well, it’s the Marlins. Over the last 30 days, the Marlins rank in the bottom five in both wOBA and home runs hit. I mean, who are you afraid of, Justin Bour and Starlin Castro? They have been even worse at home with only 40 HR hit as a team this year, only the Mets have less. Now, let’s talk Gant. He’s been fortunate with his BABIP but his LOB% has been low. His change up and fastball have been good and he’s getting a lot of swings and misses with a sub-75% contact rate. I think his K rate jumps up while his walk rate goes down, he also has been limiting homers, something I expect to continue against the Marlins. I’m STREAMing Gant in this one.

Jordan Zimmerman (DET), 14% at Home vs MIN, Friday, August 10th

Zimmerman burned me last time but I’ve cooled off since then. Zimmerman gets the Twins at home who are middle of the road in terms of offensive production. The trade of Dozier and Escobar leaves the team with Rosario and….. that’s about it. Even Rosario has been ice cold since the start of July. Zimmerman has a great K%-BB% and a solid soft contact rate against. His only issue is the home runs and his high fly ball rate. With two of the three top HR hitters out of the picture, I expect Zimmerman to limit the damage in this one on his way to a QS with solid ratios. STREAM







Austin Gomber (STL), 8% in the Road vs KC, Friday, August 10th

What, another Cardinal? Well, Kansas City is terrible and only the Mets have been worse offensively. Gomber has had issues with walks this year and has only started two games for the Cardinals. However, the aggressive nature of the Royals should limited any control issues Gomber may have in this one. The Royals are also striking out nearly 25% of the time in the last month. My only concern if how deep Gomber will go. He went 6.1 innings in his first start and only 4 innings in his second. I don’t expect more than 6 IP but 5-6 innings with a K per inning sounds about right. STREAM

Derek Holland (SF), 15% at Home vs PIT, Saturday, August 11th

The Dutch Oven! Holland has been good this year to my surprise. He’s been even better since July 1st with a 2.89 ERA and a 11.25 K/9! However, I’m a bit torn on this once because the Pirates rank third to the Red Sox and Nationals in wOBA since early July. This is a bit of a gut call, but in Holland’s last two starts, he’s skated by on a very lucky .167 BABIP and an 85.4% strand rate. At some point, Holland is going to come back down to earth. I’m staying away here.

Brian Johnson (BOS), 9%, on the Road vs BAL, Saturday, August 11th

Since the Orioles traded Machado, they rank 11th in offensive performance. It’s probably just a coincidence, but the fact remains, they’ve been hitting. Johnson has only seven starts on the year and each of his last three have lasted at least five innings. I don’t think an innings limit will be an issue and since the Red Sox have used him as a starter, he’s rocking a 2.79 ERA with a 9.31 K/9 including 11 strikeouts against the Yankees. The Orioles enjoy swinging the bat and I think Johnson will get his fair share of strikeouts and last at least six innings. It should be enough to earn a win with the run support of the Red Sox. STREAM





