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The Walking Dead - Death Watch: Which Characters Will Survive Season 4? Who is Next to Go? Judith? Daryl? Michonne? Tyreese? Glenn? Maggie? Carol? Rick? Carl? Or Someone Else?

By Matt Fink Web Exclusive



Look at an original cast photo from season one of The Walking Dead, and you'll get a sense of how short and brutal life is in the zombie apocalypse. Shane? Dead. Lori? Dead. Sophia? Dale? T-Dog? Andrea? All central players in the first two seasons, all dead and gone. And while the writers of The Walking Dead haven't been as ruthless in disposing of main characters as George R. R. Martin has been with Game of Thrones, they have been unsparing in clearing away principal protagonists as soon as they've completed their narrative arcs. If you've watched the show long enough, you've learned to read the signs as surely as a meteorologist reading the clouds. You can see death coming.

For one, we know that a sudden increase in character development is an ominous indicator that a character might be just about to graduate from the script. Sure, sudden, inexplicable deaths still happen from time to time—T-Dog and Axel come to mind—but for the most part, development leads to death simply because characters can only be given so much detail before we know so much about them that they become boring and predictable. In the world of The Walking Dead, characters follow several typical trajectories—from weak to strong, from selfish to sacrificial, from morally conflicted to staunchly ethical—and once that trajectory is completed, the writers have been ruthless in pushing them aside so we can watch new characters react to the same horrifying challenges all over again. Stable characters make for bad drama.

For example, Hershel was a brilliantly drawn character, but his time was up. He became the moral conscience of the show and, thus, we knew we could expect some warmhearted wisdom or selfless act every time he was on the screen. Like Dale before him, the writers took his character as far as they possibly could without him becoming one-dimensional. They couldn't make him a better, more decent man—he was already a saint. And it wouldn't make sense to turn him into a hardened cynic or a malevolent threat. So, stripped of much of his dynamic potential, there wasn't much room for development left. But given how much viewers loved him and how much narrative energy was invested in his character, the writers had to get some return on him. His value was at its peak, so they killed him for the emotional payoff. As a viewer, it stung. But it made perfect sense.

All of the characters on The Walking Dead are on that same trajectory to some extent. My guess is at least one major character will die before the end of season four, possibly two given the current size of the cast and the difficulty that presents the writers in providing quality development time for each of them. Plus, the fact that any character could conceivably perish at any given moment provides much of the tension that keeps us invested in their individual story arcs. To not shed a few characters would be to lose the anxiety that keeps audiences on edge. That means you might as well get out your tissues. A character you love is probably going to die at some point over the next six episodes. But some characters have thicker plot armor than others. Ranked by the likelihood that each character becomes zombie food at some point in this season, here are my death predictions.

Carl: He's the future of the show, the human guinea pig that we're watching be molded by the zombie apocalypse. He's not just a character; he's a statement about how this world changes what it means to be human when you have to watch your family and friends die, have to kill as a way of life, and live day to day without the certainty that there is any hope for anything better. Series creator Robert Kirkman famously started The Walking Dead comic with the statement that he was not trying to write a horror story about zombies but a human drama about what happens to people when they have to live in a world where everything has changed. What ultimately happens to Carl-whether he turns into a well-meaning, fair-minded man like his father or becomes the hardened survive-at-any-cost character his father fears he could become—will be Kirkman's most potent statement about human nature. Despite his claims that every character is vulnerable, he's not going to kill Carl now. Death odds: 100 to 1

Rick: Unless Andrew Lincoln walks out on the show over a contract dispute, there's no way the writers kill off the show's central protagonist. Maybe, in five years if Chandler Riggs (who plays Carl) is ready to take over as the show's lead man, Rick could be killed for a major narrative moment. But The Walking Dead is not Game of Thrones, and for now Rick is far too essential to the show's ongoing storyline to eliminate without causing a significant reshuffling of the show's dynamic. He's safe as milk. Death odds: 90 to 1

Abraham, Eugene, and Rosita: Just introduced, they're more-or-less wildcards for the remainder of the season. But since each of them played a significant role in the comics, it seems unlikely that they'd be introduced only to die a few episodes down the line (though that's essentially what happened to everyone introduced in The Governor's redemption episodes earlier in season four). Chances are each of them becomes main members of the cast and lives to see season five. Death odds: 75 to 1

Beth: She has grown from the suicidal teen of season two to the hardened babysitter who can't be bothered to cry after her boyfriend dies in season four. Now that she's walking the wilderness with Daryl Dixon as her companion, she's probably about as safe as anyone. Finally out of her sister's shadow and with Hershel no longer there to guide her, she's ready to assume the role of a central character for the first time. Death odds: 50 to 1

Tyreese: Readers of the comic are fond of pointing out that the Daryl Dixon character is essentially the equivalent of the comic book version of Tyreese. But aside from chopping down a herd of walkers with only a hammer, TV Tyreese seems fragile in comparison to his comic counterpart. A good-hearted, loyal teddy bear, he nonetheless seems to be struggling as much as anyone to come to terms with the realities of life with the undead. Underutilized in season three, he seems to be on his way to becoming a more dynamic character, so unless he receives a huge push to develop and define his narrative in the remaining six episodes, it would seem to be a waste to kill him now.

That said, should the Terminus camp prove to be an unfriendly landing place (and given the scarcity of resources, it's hard to imagine it won't), Tyreese would be a fine candidate for making a self-sacrificial statement. Since he's now protecting one toddler, two children, and a middle-aged woman (granted, one that doesn't particularly need protecting) he might be placed in a situation where he has to put their lives ahead of his. Of all the current post-prison groupings, his seems most likely to lose a member. But as a character who has so much potential, Tyreese seems to be a good bet to remain standing when the dust settles. Death odds: 25 to 1

Tara: The sole soldier from the Governor's army to survive the prison battle, she's now joined by Glenn in his quest to unite with Maggie. Obviously, she's in a bad place, having lost her girlfriend, niece, and her sister, Lily, in the mid-season finale shootout, so now her only hope for survival will come from being accepted by the people her friends were trying to kill. Having already admitted her fault in trusting The Governor, she's now on a redemptive character arc, owing Glenn her loyalty. As such, she's a fine candidate to stick around awhile, as the writers have already given her a strong foundation as a wise-cracking yet insecure former police recruit, lying about her past yet also retaining enough of her humanity that she was the only person from the Governor's army that recoiled in horror as he was hacking off poor Hershel's head. She's likable and quirky, one of the few characters likely to add a little levity to lighten the show's bleak atmosphere. There's a lot of room for growth here, and she seems to be a fine candidate to become one of the series' standout characters. Death odds: 20 to 1

Glenn and Maggie: It makes sense to list these two as one entry, simply because their character arcs are so intertwined at this point that whatever happens to one of them will determine the future path of the other. One of only five characters left from season one, Glenn has become a bit of a lost character over the first half of season four. The youthful, self-effacing everyman is largely gone, deflated by the prison flu and hardened by having to be constantly on guard. Now that he and Maggie have made their apocalypse marriage official, it seems it will only be a matter of time until the writers break them up to put the surviving partner through the emotional wringer.

Glenn would seem to be the more likely candidate, as he has already progressed from being the stereotypical video game geek of season one to the acrobat that fought off a zombie with his hands literally tied behind his back in season three. Maggie, too, has undergone a transformation, though not quite as dramatic. But she's arguably an even more valuable character to the show, seeing that her death would devastate both Glenn and her sister, Beth. Viewers want to root for Glenn and Maggie; their survival as a couple provides some hope that love can still take root and blossom when nearly every vestige of normal life is gone. But it's only a matter of time. There's no way they weather the storm together and spend their golden years hand-in-hand on the sofa. One of them will die, but probably not yet. Death odds: 15 to 1

Sasha: She's in an odd place. Not enough of a central character that her death would provide much of a shock, she's also probably safe for that very reason. We hardly know her, so why waste her character's potential by killing her now? For the near future, she's likely to be somewhat of a third wheel to Maggie and Bob, though her sassy back and forth with the latter suggests that they could form their own intertwined story arc. As such, she seems likely to survive for the time being. Plus, Tyreese has already suffered one major loss this season. Putting him through the death of his sister would seem gratuitous. Death odds: 10 to 1

Michonne: In her favor, she's the strongest female character on the show. Against her is the fact that she has already received some revealing character development in the "After" episode and might be reaching the end of her development arc. Really, how many times can we watch her mow down a field of walkers, sending scalps flying as she perfectly hits her target over and over? Now that we've learned more of her backstory and her motivations, she has lost some of her mystery. We know she was too broken by the horrors of the zombie apocalypse to engage other human beings in an open and unguarded way. We know why she broke down when holding baby Judith. With The Governor having already fallen to her sword, her main antagonist is gone. What is left for her? Is she going to become even more skilled in zombie slaying? Is there more of her story to tell? If so, she might not have much time left to tell it. Death odds: 6 to 1

Daryl: Easily the most popular member of the show's cast, Daryl Dixon would seem to be safe for the foreseeable future. Even so, Robert Kirkman is defiant in his insistence that he'll kill off main characters at any moment, and he might see Daryl's popularity as a challenge to prove how serious he is. At this point, killing Daryl would be a daring but misguided choice, the kind of move that could shave a few million viewers off of your audience by eliminating the one character that everyone sees as indispensable. Still, if Daryl does receive a full episode of character development later in the season, as is rumored, he would seem to be entering dangerous territory.

He has already undergone the most radical character transformation of anyone on the show, evolving from the group's brooding outsider to its most loyal and beloved soldier. He's the only character who is conceivably better off now than he was before society's collapse provided him a new start in life, giving him a family and an opportunity to be a better man.

From a writing perspective, where else can you take that character? Make him more of a badass? He already killed a walker by throwing an arrow into its skull and used a zombie as a meat shield as he singlehandedly blew up a tank. Can you make him a better, more respectable person? That's hard to imagine, too. He's already unquestionably brave and selflessly heroic, the man who tirelessly combed the woods for Sophia, protested Rick's plan to hand over Michonne to The Governor, and volunteers for every dangerous mission. He has already reunited with his brother and lost him, and it seems very likely that his storyline with Carol will be revisited (and perhaps concluded) before long. Unless he's going to develop the ability to fly or punch through walls, it's hard to make him more invulnerable, and killing him would provide a potent reminder that no character—even the face of a franchise—is safe.

Also consider this: in the comic, Robert Kirkman has generally maintained a system where Rick only has one right-hand man at a time, with that person being the story's resident tough guy and Rick's trusted confidant. On the TV show, that was originally Shane, whose erratic behavior cost him his spot to Daryl. But now the show is inundated with badasses, with Michonne, Tyreese, and the just introduced Abraham (if he's anything like his comic counterpart) each representing the typical hero archetype. How can you provide enough screen time for all four of them, especially if they all end up as a part of a bigger group again?

Using an investment analogy, Daryl is the most valuable stock in the show's stock portfolio. But if you've done all you can with his character, you might want to cash him in while he's at his highest value. That said, he's also so valuable as an asset that you better be 100% certain that ending his arc not only serves the overall story but is a strategically wise use of all of the narrative capital you've invested in him. If things get dull and viewers tune out, teasing Daryl's demise would grab attention again. Still, the writers don't need to kill Daryl right now. In fact, it might not outlast the backlash if they did. (Note: The news that Norman Reedus has joined the cast of the Robert Kirkman-produced sci-fi thriller Air could indicate that he won't be returning to the show for season five. Could Kirkman have written him out of the Walking Dead plot and then offered him a central role in the film as a consolation prize?) Death odds: 5 to 1

Bob: Robert Kirkman already referred to Bob's story as being a "linchpin" for the entire season, so whatever happens to him will have significant implications for the overall plot. We've already seen him as the secretive alcoholic whose motives are made questionable through the fact that everyone is suspicious of him. Now we're likely to see some exposition on why he is the way he is. What has he experienced that drove him to drinking? Why was he the last surviving member of two groups? Was he the one feeding the walkers at the fence, as well as dissecting and studying them? Why is he so happy to be wandering the woods with Sasha and Maggie? Though this is pure speculation, could he also be in some way connected to the Terminus community? Given the tendency for characters to find redemption after seeming untrustworthy, Bob seems likely to undergo an evolution and become a sympathetic character. Once that transformation is complete, he's vulnerable to become the Milton of season four, a character who dies right when we start to like him. Death odds: 2 to 1

Lizzie and Mika: Lizzie already occupies a place as one of the show's most fascinatingly complex characters, and there's little doubt that her future serial killer tendencies will result in something truly horrific happening sooner rather than later. Her comparably innocent (and sane) sister, Mika provides a contrast that will likely play out over the remainder of the season, and she is already starting her trajectory from frightened child to soon-to-be confident zombie hunter. Readers of the comic know that the Lizzie and Mika storyline could end up going in some exceptionally dark directions should the writers choose to revisit the plotline of a similarly deranged child from the graphic novel. To this point, the show has done a fine job redeeming damaged characters, but it might be a bit much to ask them to salvage a child who names her favorite zombies and murders baby rabbits for no reason. Her increasingly sociopathic behavior is eventually going to necessitate a response from an adult character. When that happens, will Carol be blamed for creating a monster? Will Lizzie survive? Will either of them? Death odds: 2 to 1

Carol: She has grown from a scared-of-her-own-shadow housewife with an abusive husband to an empowered kill-or-be-killed warrior, so she is already one of the most dynamic characters in the history of the show. She's lost her daughter, murdered two people for the good of the group, and ended up exiled as a result. What more could you put her through as a character? Now reunited with her adopted daughters, she'll be heavily invested in keeping them safe, doing what she couldn't with her own offspring. But how long can she keep Tyreese in the dark about murdering his girlfriend? There's also the near-certainty that she and Daryl will have at least one more emotional scene together, perhaps even a consummation of the long-simmering romantic tension between them.

But since Rick already made it clear that he wouldn't trust Carol near his children, it seems unlikely that she would be welcomed back in the larger group should the survivors all reunite. If that remains true, unless the writers are going to continue to follow the multiple parallel storylines through season five, it's hard to see what future role she could have. Like Hershel, there just doesn't seem to be much more that can be said through her character. But instead of representing the limits of noble altruism in face of imminent death, she will become emblematic of the unwavering pragmatism that's needed to live under those same conditions. She'll be given one final emotionally-stirring push that will cement her status as one of the show's most memorable characters, and then her arc will be complete, her (probably heroic) death serving as the punctuation mark to stab us in the hearts as we wait six months for season five. She carries all of the telltale signs of a character at the end of her road. Death odds: 2 to 1

Judith: Would the writers reintroduce Rick's baby just to kill her off? I'm betting that they will, mostly for logistical reasons. As the "Inmates" episode illustrated, wondering through the woods with a bawling toddler is roughly equivalent to leaving human-flavored breadcrumbs for the walkers to follow to your exact location. That isn't likely to change until Judith is, what, four or five years old? Should she survive, it would still be years before she could be more than a plot device and become a distinctive character in her own right. Unless the group is going to settle in another walled community soon, it doesn't seem likely that they could keep Judith alive for very long in the wild.

But killing Judith presents its own problems, chief among them, how do you depict the death of a child without traumatizing your audience? Could Lizzie finish the job she started in the "Inmates" episode? Could Judith be confiscated and turned into a bargaining chip, held for ransom at the Terminus camp? Supposedly, AMC is "worried" that an upcoming episode will be so upsetting that even the fans of a show that features half-decomposed heads exploding every week will be turned off, and what's more disturbing than having a toddler die on screen? Death odds: 1.5 to 1

Bonus Prediction:

Morgan: No one is even sure if the great Lenny James will return in season four to reprise his role as Morgan—in the comics he returns at around this approximate point—but adding him to the cast could provide another dynamic force to the storyline. Last we saw him, he had become a post-apocalyptic Sisyphus, doomed to live alone in a town where he cleared away the bodies of zombies and cursed his fate. His character is simply too compelling for him not to show up again at some point, and when he does it's impossible to know what will happen with him. He might show up, steal a few scenes, and then die a noble death. Or he might come back and join the main cast for the next few seasons. Like all things in the Walking Dead universe, we'll have to be patient and wait for the answer. Death odds: unknown