HALIFAX—A new poll suggests Justin Trudeau’s government currently has the edge in Atlantic Canada, despite the Liberals’ approval hovering below 50 per cent.

Quarterly political polling from Halifax-based Narrative Research – formerly Corporate Research Associates – found 43 per cent of Atlantic Canadian respondents would have voted Liberal on the day they were asked, 30 per cent would have voted Conservative, 15 per cent Green and 10 per cent NDP. Two per cent would have opted for an alternative party and 41 per cent were undecided or refused to answer.

The pollsters sampled 1,500 people of voting age between July 31 and Aug. 22 in Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island. The poll carries a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.5 percentage points.

A news release from Narrative Research noted the Green Party’s “dominant position” over the NDP as a significant change. The Greens moved ahead of the NDP in Narrative Research polls for the first time ever in the last quarter, according to the release.

Narrative Research CEO Margret Brigley is quoted in the release saying the results show “an important quarter for the Liberal Party.”

“The gap in decided voter intentions has grown to 13 points (up from three points in May), and the question will be whether the gap will remain in the months to come.”

The federal election is scheduled to take place on Oct. 21

Brigley pointed out the Liberal sweep of the Atlantic Provinces in the 2015 election and added, “Today, Atlantic Canadians are less unanimous about the party, making the region a more competitive landscape.”

Broken down by province, the parties ranked somewhat differently. The Liberals were strongest in Newfoundland at 48 per cent and the NDP maintained third ranking, ahead of the Greens.

In Prince Edward Island, the Conservatives had the lead with 40 per cent of decided voters with the Liberals behind at 35 per cent.

The poll also asked respondents how satisfied they were with the overall performance of the federal government led by Trudeau and 43 per cent said they were mostly or completely satisfied. 50 per cent were mostly or completely dissatisfied and 7 per cent said neither.

According to the news release, voter satisfaction with the Liberals had ticked up slightly since May polling, when it hit a record low of 41 per cent.

On the question of party leaders, Trudeau was the preferred choice of 31 per cent of respondents, Conservative leader Andrew Scheer was top pick for 21 per cent, Green leader Elizabeth May was the preferred choice for 16 per cent and for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, 8 per cent.

“Findings suggest that Andrew Scheer failed to build momentum in the region this past quarter, despite increased scrutiny on the Liberal Party over the SNC-Lavalin affair,” Brigley said.

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“By contrast, Trudeau has held his position overall as the most preferred leader in the region, despite some differences of opinion across provinces.”

The Trudeau preference was strongest in Newfoundland at 40 per cent. Nova Scotia matched the regional average of 31 per cent and Prince Edward Island was close at 30 per cent. Trudeau popularity was lowest in New Brunswick at 26 per cent. He was ahead of all other party leaders in each province.

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