A new Michigan poll shows that Donald Trump is only one point behind Hillary Clinton in the battleground state, according to a 500-person likely-voter poll conducted by a GOP polling firm.

The poll records Clinton’s support at 45 percent, while Trump’s support has climbed to 44 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 5 percent, and Green Party’s Jill Stein is at 2 percent.

The poll was conducted Oct. 29 to Oct. 30 It is either an outlier or an early warning of a Trump surge in the critical state, whose 16 Electoral Votes could provide a path to the White House for Trump.

“Michigan is moving to a toss up because Donald Trump is uniting the Republican base, has a strong lead among Independents, is on the verge of record support in blue collar areas such as Macomb County, and gains a higher proportion of African Americans than Republican candidates usually get in Michigan,” said a Facebook statement by John Yob, head of Strategic National, the firm which conducted the poll.

He added:

We could be headed to a photo finish in Michigan and that explains why both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are spending big on TV in Michigan and visiting the state in the final days.

Yob’s clients include Gov. Rick Snyder and other state GOP leaders.

Currently, the Real Clear Politics polling site shows Clinton safely in the lead, with a 6.4 percent advantage over Trump.

The poll’s error margin is 4.4 percent, meaning each of the numbers in the poll could be 4.4 percent higher or lower.

President Barack Obama won the state by 9.4 points in 2012.