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It’s a pretty good bet that Jason Kenney is going to be the next premier of Alberta. According to the CBC’s official poll tracker, there is a 99 per cent chance Kenney’s United Conservative Party will win the most seats on April 16.

Below, a few reasons why the UCP can be uniquely braggadocious about their prospect of victory — and how they could still manage to lose this thing anyway.

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The United Conservative Party has been leading the polls for its entire existence

In July 2017, a week after the party was created, it opened a lead of 28 points over the incumbent NDP. There hasn’t been a single poll since that didn’t show the UCP with a commanding lead over the NDP. The typical Canadian election campaign is a horse race between two parties who each command about 40 per cent of the electorate. But the UCP has repeatedly been able to claim the rare prize of seeing more than half the electorate saying they’ll vote for them. When the election campaign started, they had an explosive lead of 56 per cent versus the NDP’s 31 per cent. That lead has narrowed somewhat as the campaign has ground on, but the fact remains that throughout its entire time in government, the NDP has never once polled as the province’s most popular party. The sole exception was in November, 2015, when the party’s support of 33 per cent was just enough to pull it ahead of the still-divided Wildrose and Progressive Conservatives.