Final polling in the state put Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in a near tie, indicating race may be the latest in its long history of close finishes

This article is more than 3 years old

This article is more than 3 years old

Polling sites across Florida saw steady streams of voters on Tuesday as the state that led the nation in early voting prepared to once again become the pivot on which the election could swing.

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Long lines formed soon after daybreak at churches, senior centers and libraries in Miami-Dade County and even a giant car dealership in Broward County, pointing to a high election-day turnout to follow the record 6.4 million who have already voted early.

Only the smallest sliver of daylight separated Donald Trump from Hillary Clinton, a virtual dead-heat in Florida’s final polling of a bruising presidential campaign foreshadowing a possible election-day cliffhanger to add to the state’s long history of close finishes.

The Republican nominee held a narrow 0.2 percentage point advantage over Clinton as campaigning drew to a close on Monday for the crucial swing state’s 29 electoral college votes, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls.

Among the early voters in Florida on Tuesday was Eddie Cruz, a 39-year-old law enforcement officer, who brought his daughter Grace, eight, to the polls in Coral Springs on her day off from school “as an education”.

“Her and I will be having a conversation after,” said Cruz, who wouldn’t reveal who he voted for but said it was “for the lesser of two evils” after fact-checking the candidates.

“It’s definitely been contentious and sometimes I have to turn the television off because I don’t want the kids to hear what they’re saying.

“But it’s over tonight and we don’t have to hear it. I just hope whoever takes office will be conscientious with our safety as well as with people’s rights.

Others voted at the giant Rick Case car dealership in Davie, where staff cleared dozens of cars from the showroom to make room for polling booths.

“We have to keep Trump out of the White House,” said Maria Hernandez, a 24-year-old Cuban American voting with two friends. “Florida has to show the country we don’t want this offensive madman.”

Trump made his final pitch during an appearance in Sarasota on Monday, telling Florida voters to “dream big” and warning it was their “one magnificent chance to beat the corrupt system”.

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But it was Clinton, who opted to skip final-day campaigning in Florida and concentrate instead on other battleground states of Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, who probably emerged the more confident. Early voting returns released by election officials on Monday showed that about one half of the state’s eligible voters, 6.42 million of a 12.86m registered electorate, had already cast a ballot, and that 976,000 of them were from generally Democratic-leaning Hispanic voters, about a third of whom had never voted before, according to analysis by University of Florida political science professor Dan Smith.

This surge in the Hispanic vote, up more than 100% from the 2008 election, is fuelled largely by a recent huge influx of Puerto Ricans in central Florida escaping the debt crisis in their homeland. Added to a smaller but still significant uptick in early voting among Florida’s Clinton-supporting black voters, reversing a perceived loss of enthusiasm last week, and her clear advantage over Trump in the state’s minority voting meant things “ain’t pretty for The Donald”, Smith wrote in his blog.

“The Florida Hispanic vote is going to make history in the 2016 election cycle, not only by sending the first woman president to the White House, but also for many other candidates. I see a lot of congressional seats going Democratic,” Vivian Rodriguez, president of the Democratic Hispanic Caucus of Florida, told the Guardian.

“We’ve been working for this very moment. We’ve been going to these communities, we’ve been knocking on those doors, we’ve been phone banking. Our educational platforms tell people the importance of voting. We’ve been getting out the vote.

“Trump is the reason Latinos are coming out to vote. How can you elect a man as president who doesn’t respect any community?”

Joe Biden and his wife Jill were tasked with the Democratic party’s last-minute rallying in Tallahassee on Monday, following a visit from Barack Obama to Kissimmee on Sunday and a rain-shortened appearance in Broward County, the Democratic party’s Florida stronghold, by Clinton the day before.

The vice-president told an audience at the historically black Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University that a victory for Clinton here would probably put her in the White House.

“How Florida goes, the country goes,” he said, pointing to the state’s near-perfect record of backing presidential election winners over the last half-century, and urging the college’s black voters to turn out in force on Tuesday.

“It’s up to the African American community. If you turn out in the same percentages we absolutely, positively win,” he added, warning that a Trump administration would slash grants to students and colleges.

Florida’s Republicans, however, are unfazed by Clinton’s slight advantage after the closing of early voting on Sunday night. As the election day polls opened on Tuesday, only 88,012 more Democrats had voted than Republicans from the 6.42m already cast.

“We’re feeling confident. In 2012 we were down by about 104,000 votes, so we feel very good where we’re at right now,” Blaise Ingoglia, chairman of the Republican party of Florida, told Fox Business. “We know it’s going to be close, but we do expect Donald Trump to win this. We’re expecting the independents at the end of the day to come on for Trump.”

Some analysts, however, think Republicans’ confidence in Florida’s early voting figures could be misplaced.

Hillary Clinton buoyed by high Latino turnout in final hours of election Read more

“There’s not that many undecided voters – it’s all about the ground game and turning out the vote,” said Philip Williams, professor of political science and Latin American studies at the University of Florida.

“One of the problems is they’ve cannibalized the vote,” he said. “Lots of Republicans who normally turn out on election day have voted early. Four years ago, Republicans won the election-day vote [but] Obama had a pretty nice cushion going in. Clinton’s probably winning the early vote by a smaller cushion but I don’t think you’re going to see Republicans winning by as large a margin on election day.

“Florida’s always close – Obama won in 2012 by about 1%. Clinton could outperform Obama the way the early vote has gone, but there’s no blowout in Florida. If she wins by 3% that will be a pretty good win for her.”