Jul 10, 2018

The Finnish capital of Helsinki will host a summit July 16 between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Amid preparations for the meeting, speculation has been raised about the topics that may be discussed by the two presidents. Although the formal agenda has yet to be announced, one thing is certain: The Syrian crisis and prospects for engagement between Moscow and Washington on the war-torn country will likely form a great part of what Putin and Trump will discuss — and possibly agree upon.

US national security adviser John Bolton acknowledged on July 1 that an important part of the agenda of the upcoming Trump-Putin summit will be for the United States to ask for Russia’s help to oust Iran from Syria. According to Bolton, Washington has accepted that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will retain power in Syria and now wants to concentrate on convincing Moscow to cut its partnership in Syria with Tehran. In return for Putin’s agreement to help the Americans expel the Iranians from Syria, Trump is reportedly ready to withdraw US forces from the country as well as help the Syrian military regain full control over the southern region along the border with Jordan.

Reacting to these reports, the Iranian press has been quick to speculate that Russia is about to “betray” Iran once again and to use Tehran as a bargaining chip to reach a deal with the United States. Moscow’s reaction to speculation along those lines, however, has been quite unexpected. For instance, Russia has backtracked from its previous position that all foreign forces, including Iranians, must leave Syria. Instead, Russian officials have started to vehemently emphasize the lawful nature of Iran’s presence in Syria. On June 28, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, Vassily Nebenzia, called Iran’s presence in Syria “legitimate and undeniable,” stressing, “Nobody can deny the issue, whether they like it or not.” Four days later, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said that Iran’s presence in Syria is of an advisory nature and fundamentally aimed at fighting terrorism. On July 4, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called the US and Israeli demands for Iran’s full withdrawal from Syria “absolutely unrealistic.”

Meanwhile, former Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Mohammad Fathali said in a June 30 interview before returning to Tehran at the end of his mission that Iran and Russia are allied in fighting terrorism not only in Syria but throughout the whole region. He also suggested that as a result of the Syrian military’s ongoing operation in southern Syria, US forces might soon leave the area.

These statements cast serious doubt on the prospect of Iran and Russia ending their partnership in Syria as a result of a potential deal between Moscow and Washington. To better understand the situation, it’s necessary to take into account several important factors.