Caterpillar Inc. is an industrial bellwether that investors watch closely for signals about how the world economy is performing. When the company reported earnings this morning, it included a sobering outlook for 2012, as well as 2013.

Caterpillar forecasts world economic growth of about 2.7% next year. That’s up from expectations of a 2.5% expansion in 2012, but down substantially from the 3.3% 2012 growth the company was forecasting at the end of last year.

The company put blame for a slower than expected economic recovery on central banks prematurely tightening policy: “In assessing the last two years, we concluded the financial crisis left many economies in fragile condition and that quickly raising interest rates once the recovery started was a bad idea. Although most central banks retreated, the impact contributed to a decline in world economic growth from about 4 percent in 2010 to less than 2.5 percent in 2012. Business confidence deteriorated and another round of investment cutbacks is beginning. We are concerned that central banks will be too quick to raise interest rates when growth improves, again preventing the world economy from completely recovering from the financial crisis.”