Now that Canada-U.S. trade talks have moved into what’s being called the “continuous phase,” Justin Trudeau can shift his sights to a more distant, but equally crucial deadline — voting day, 2019.

One year from this week, the prime minister will have to formally kick off the campaign for the Oct. 21, 2019 election. Because the campaign can be anywhere from 36 to 50 days long under proposed election-reform laws, Trudeau will be looking to go to Rideau Hall sometime from roughly Sept. 1 to 15 next year.

It’s appropriate then, not to mention timely, that Trudeau is sitting down with his Liberal caucus in Saskatoon this week, where election readiness will loom as large for MPs as the rolling NAFTA drama and deadlines of the past frenetic weeks.

All through the NAFTA talks, the elections at the top of everyone’s minds have been the American midterms — and how President Donald Trump is using the trade talks to leverage Republicans’ chances in the Nov. 6 congressional contest.

As Derek Burney, Canada’s former ambassador to the U.S., noted this week, the NAFTA talks have been further complicated by the fact that Trump is using them as an election-campaign tool.

“He keeps campaigning. He’s never stopped campaigning,” Burney said. “I’ve never seen this relentless campaigning.”

Read more:

Trump warns he could cause the ‘ruination’ of Canada

Trump’s NAFTA threat leaves Trudeau locked in high-stakes game of poker

Protecting Canadian culture a surprise sticking point at NAFTA talks

So now the continuous nature of the Trump campaign has been joined by continuous NAFTA talks — never-ending politics mixed up with long-running trade negotiations. The politics of trade looms large in the United States, but also in Canada.

What’s less clear is how Canada-U.S. trade will play out in any future election campaign in this country in 2019. Of course, some of that depends on the final deal — presuming there is a deal.

It’s said that Canada’s negotiators at the trade talks in Washington explained to the Americans that political priorities would be keeping them away from the table next week — that if Canada ever does reach a deal with the United States in the days and weeks ahead, Trudeau and Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland are going to have to sell the deal to his Liberal caucus.

It’s also said that the spectre of Malcolm Turnbull was glancingly raised — the Australian PM recently dumped by his own caucus.

Both scenarios are a tiny bit of a stretch in this context, of course. Legally, Trudeau can’t be dumped by his caucus, no matter how unhappy they might be with any future trade deal.

As well, Trudeau can probably count on the backing of his Liberal caucus, almost no matter what is contained in any final deal with the United States.

What’s been remarkable about these negotiations is how solidarity has stretched across parties and provinces. Star columnist Chantal Hébert pointed that out earlier this week, particularly with regard to the collegial agreement from the premiers to keep their mouths shut on any details they’re learning from Ottawa — “as exemplary as it is extraordinary,” as Hébert wrote.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

Federal Conservatives have been playing some politics with the negotiations, accusing Trudeau of bargaining from weakness, for instance. But by and large, Andrew Scheer’s party doesn’t seem overly eager to be siding with Trump’s team against Trudeau.

All this solidarity could evaporate, however, if Trudeau’s team fails to get a deal, especially if auto tariffs are the result. In that scenario, it’s easy to envision federal Conservatives teaming up with Premier Doug Ford’s new government to slam the economic damage being suffered because of the federal Librerals’ toxic relations with Trump.

That’s why you see the Canadian team remaining determinedly upbeat as the talks, in Freeland’s words, move to the “continuous” phase in days ahead. Deadlines appear to be elastic in the trade talks, but election deadlines are fixed, and getting closer, in both countries.

Susan Delacourt is the Star’s Ottawa bureau chief and a columnist covering national politics. Reach her via email: sdelacourt@thestar.ca or follow her on Twitter: @susandelacourt

Read more about: