Since Sunday’s referendum, the Catalan president has repeated his determination to do so within days. The reality may not be so simple

What’s going on in Catalonia now?

The regional president, Carles Puigdemont, has repeated his determination to declare independence from Spain days after 90% of participants in a unilateral referendum voted for Catalonia to become a separate state. Speaking to the BBC on Tuesday night, Puigdemont said once the government had a final tally of votes, it would “act at the end of this week or the beginning of next”. He is due to make a statement on TV at 9pm local time on Wednesday.

Can he do this?

The Spanish government is adamant that he cannot and the country’s constitutional court ordered the referendum to be suspended last month. Puigdemont argues his government has been left with no choice but to proceed unilaterally as repeated attempts to discuss the matter with the Madrid government have been ignored. He also says the referendum results gives him a clear mandate.



What does the Spanish constitution say?

It is pretty clear: “The constitution is based on the indissoluble unity of the Spanish nation, the common and indivisible homeland of all Spaniards; it recognises and guarantees the right to self-government of the nationalities and regions of which it is composed and the solidarity among them all.”

So what happens next?

Just as Madrid will not recognise the results of a referendum both it and the courts have declared illegal, so it will not recognise an independence declaration. The Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, still has the option of tackling the independence challenge by invoking article 155 of the Spanish constitution. The article, which has never been used, allows the Spanish government to step in and take control of an autonomous region if it “does not fulfil the obligations imposed upon it by the constitution or other laws, or acts in a way that is seriously prejudicial to the general interest of Spain”.

Timeline Eight key moments in the Catalan independence campaign Show Hide Spain’s constitutional court strikes down parts of a 2006 charter on Catalan autonomy that had originally increased the region’s fiscal and judicial powers and described it as a “nation”. The court rules that using the word “nation” has no legal value and also rejects the “preferential” use of Catalan over Spanish in municipal services. Almost two weeks later, hundreds of thousands protest on the streets of Barcelona, chanting “We are a nation! We decide!” At the height of Spain’s economic crisis, more than a million people protest in Barcelona on Catalonia’s national day, demanding independence in what will become a peaceful, annual show of strength. The pro-independence government of Artur Mas defies the Madrid government and Spain’s constitutional court by holding a symbolic vote on independence. Turnout is just 37%, but more than 80% of those who voted - 1.8 million people - vote in favour of Catalan sovereignty. Carles Puigdemont, who has replaced Mas as regional president, announces an independence referendum will be held on 1 October. Spain’s central government says it will block the referendum using all the legal and political means at its disposal. The Catalan parliament approves referendum legislation after a heated, 11-hour session that sees 52 opposition MPs walk out of the chamber in Barcelona in protest at the move. Spain’s constitutional court suspends the legislation the following day, but the Catalan government vows to press ahead with the vote. Police arrest 14 Catalan government officials suspected of organising the referendum and announce they have seized nearly 10 million ballots destined for the vote. Some 40,000 people protest against the police crackdown in Barcelona and Puigdemont accuses the Spanish government of effectively suspending regional autonomy and declaring a de facto state of emergency. Close to 900 people are injured as police attempt to stop the referendum from taking place. The Catalan government says 90% voted for independence on a turnout of 43%. Spanish government takes control of Catalonia and dissolves its parliament after secessionist Catalan MPs voted to establish an independent republic. Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, fires regional president, Carles Puigdemont, and orders regional elections to be held on 21 December.

How would that go down?

Given the police violence that marred Sunday’s poll, leaving hundreds of people injured, such a move would go down extremely badly. Not only would it galvanise support for Puigdemont’s position, it would also bring huge crowds on to the streets in protest.

Tensions are still running very high and many Catalans are angry that the thousands of Spanish Guardia Civil and national police officers who tried to halt the referendum are still deployed in the region.

Puigdemont warned that the triggering of article 155 would be another in what he called “a long list of mistakes” by the Spanish government.



“After each mistake, we have become stronger,” he told the BBC. “Today, we are closer to independence than we were a month ago. Each week, after every mistake, we’ve gained more support from society; a bigger majority in Catalonia who do not accept this situation.”

He said that the use of article 155, and the possible arrest of members of the Catalan government – including himself – could be the “ultimate mistake”.

How important is Catalonia to Spain? Read more

Where is the Spanish king in all this?

King Felipe made a rare television address on Tuesday night, in which he accused Catalan authorities of attempting to break “the unity of Spain” and warned that their push for independence could threaten the country’s social and economic stability.

He made no reference to Sunday’s violence in the speech, in which he said the government had a duty to “ensure constitutional order”.

Play Video 1:13 King Felipe accuses Catalan authorities of fracturing Spanish solidarity – video

Any chance of some last-minute mediation?

Not so far. Puigdemont and other Catalan politicians have made several calls for the EU to intervene to help solve the crisis, but the bloc has so far kept out of what it views as an internal matter for Spain.

“Violence can never be an instrument in politics,” the European commission said in a statement on Monday. “We trust the leadership of prime minister Mariano Rajoy to manage this difficult process in full respect of the Spanish constitution and of the fundamental rights of citizens enshrined therein.”