The corporate world already has access to -- and a high comfort level with -- Republicans. No gold rush for GOP lobbyists

In the months before Democrats took over the White House in 2008, panicked lobbyists began frantically searching for connected Democrats who understood the shifting landscape and could influence it.

The pool was small. Few Democrats considered giving up a shot at an Obama administration job or a cushy Capitol Hill gig to bolt for K Street. Caught out of position, many lobbying firms were forced to pay healthy six-figure salaries to relatively junior former Democratic staffers just to balance out their rosters.


This time around, Republicans aren’t likely to enjoy such a bonanza if the GOP takes the House.

For one thing, there are still plenty of exiled Republicans looking to return from the hinterlands of small-time trade associations and less-than-ideal jobs they took to make ends meet after the Great Freeze-Out of 2008.

“I don’t think there’s going to be this amazing gold rush for Republicans, as there was for Democrats,” said GOP lobbyist Ed Kutler.

And for another, corporate clients are much more comfortable working with Republicans. Unlike with the Democrats in 2008, business already has access to Republicans, and the party is a known quantity largely sympathetic to their interests.

“When the Democrats took over, most of the people in business, they didn’t know as many people downtown who were Democrats,” said Republican lobbyist Peter Madigan. “Most of the pro-business lobbyists are Republicans.”

That doesn’t mean firms won’t stock up on Republicans or that some Republicans won’t fetch high-dollar salaries. It’s just that lobbyists aren’t quite sure what the inventory looks like yet. As with the Democrats in ’08, lobbyists expect many Republican congressional staffers will look to move up the ranks instead of head downtown.

“What’s not clear yet is just how much talent, true talent, is going to be available on the Republican side,” said Democratic lobbyist Joel Johnson. “Should they take the House, there are a lot of really talented Republicans who are going to want to stay.”

K Street’s wait-and-see strategy is also driven by business and political considerations, not least of which is whether the GOP actually will win the 39 seats needed to make House Republican leader John Boehner speaker.

But beyond the obvious Election Day uncertainty, lobbyists say they are not making major moves until they see the GOP agenda and get a better sense of which Republican House staffers are looking to jump downtown.

And after five years in which there weren’t many Republican jobs, it’s hard to estimate just how many staffers are looking to make the move.

In 2005, Republicans talked of a permanent majority and hung onto government jobs, believing they could cash out to K Street whenever they wanted.

A year later, Democrats had regained control of the House and Senate and many longtime GOP staffers saw their stock plummet.

“There were a lot of people who thought K Street would be there forever,” said a senior GOP operative.

That lesson has stuck with many staffers and may lead to a bigger-than-expected exodus by Hill aides who understand that their market potential is never higher than at the start of a new Congress, the operative said.

And, some K Streeters say, there will be a demand for “line lobbyists,” the grunts of the lobbying world tasked with pounding the marble hallways for intel. The GOP agenda will help dictate demand. A full-throated push to repeal Wall Street reform, for instance, will mean a need for lobbyists close to senior Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee.

“The absolute best catch, the top draft choice, is someone who had downtown experience before going to the Hill, ... at a corporate office, trade group or even the White House,” Madigan said, adding that the Hill experience would include a stint as a chief of staff, a committee aide or a leadership staffer, ideally someone who had worked on a major piece of legislation.

Still, Kutler said he expects most Republican staffers will want to taste the majority and won’t start moving off the Hill until early 2012.

“There will be some movement from the Hill to downtown — I know because we’re talking to some — but it’s not going to be this land rush,” he said.

But for Republicans already downtown, a GOP ascension would mean a boost to their careers. When Democrats took over two years ago, most lobbying shops kept their Republicans but moved them to more secondary positions. Those Republican lobbyists are now poised to share more power with their Democratic colleagues.

The same holds true for GOP consultants, who would very likely play a bigger role in their clients’ legislative and political strategies — and see fatter paychecks.

If they win, House Republicans will go from virtually irrelevant to influential overnight. In fact, lobbyists tend to split the world into order of importance: the Senate majority, House majority, Senate minority and House minority.

“Our firm, being focused on House Republicans, goes from being last in the pecking order to second highest, maybe even first,” said a former Republican-aide-turned-lobbyist, giddy at the prospect of a GOP House.

The lobbyist said his firm has pitched to 40 potential clients over the past four months, and if Republicans win, he anticipates a raft of new business.

It is the firms with long-standing ties to Republican leadership that will profit the most. And any shop that brings on Republicans in order to advertise that they’re close to House leadership risks exposing that it’s not.

“It’s part of the business. People who two years ago were claiming to be close to House Democrats and all the people in power are now shifting,” said GOP lobbyist Jack Howard. “The people who have paid attention and helped House Republicans even when they were in a ditch are of more value.”