When rising waters from superstorms like Katrina or Sandy inundate heavily populated coastal communities, vast numbers of people will abandon their destroyed homes and flee for safety and shelter elsewhere.

Where will they goâ€Š—â€Šand how will their destination cities cope with them?

That’s the focus of a new study that projects as many as 13.1 million Americans could become climate refugees by the end of this century, an influx of people that could stress inland cities, particularly those already grappling with population growth, urban development, traffic congestion and water management.

“We typically think about sea-level rise as a coastal issue, but if people are forced to move because their houses become inundated, the migration could affect many landlocked communities as well,” said Mathew Hauer, a demographer at the University of Georgia and author of the study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change. “For many inland areas, incorporating climate change scenarios into their strategic long-range planning would be an appropriate strategy.”

While other research has assessed sea-level rise with the goal of planning critical infrastructure to protect fragile populated coastlines, this study is believed to be the first to model the destinations of millions of displaced coastal migrants.

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Net changes in population by state due to migration from sea-level rise. Source: Nature Climate Change

“[This is] fascinating,” said Richard Alley, professor of geosciences at Pennsylvania State University, who was not involved in the study. “The global equivalent of this paper may be even more important. Climate refugees may become common if we continue to drive rapid climate change. Looking at where those refugees might go, as well as where they will come from, will provide better information for planners and voters considering adaptation and mitigation.”

The study predicts that Atlanta, Houston and Phoenix will be among the most likely destinations for climate refugees, whether for the short or long term.

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Net changes in population by metropolitan area due to migration from sea-level rise. Source: Nature Climate Change

“We know that people tend to migrate short distances or to areas with embedded social networks and family ties,” Hauer said. “Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas, Orlando, and Austin are all major cities located near coastal areas. Naturally, they would be the top destinations.”

The study estimates both the number and destinations of potential sea-level rise migrations in the United States during the coming century.

“I used IRS county-to-county migration data to project future migration patterns using a time series model,” Hauer explained. “The projected migration patterns are sort of like pipes in a plumbing system. They tell you where water could go, but not how much water.” The “water” in this analogy comes is the estimated number of Americans at risk from sea-level rise.

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Projected migration linked to sea-level rise by state. Florida is expected to produce the largest number of migrants. Source: Nature Climate Change