Adair Turner is one of the few commenters who debate on population growth, pointing out that youth bulge is not always a "demographic dividend" in developing countries. He urges politicians and business leaders to not see population surge through rose-tinted glasses. Instead of "huge investment opportunities and "rapid economic growth," they may face a "major threat to economic development," exacerbated by technological progress, when automation makes low-skilled jobs redundant.

The author explains how the term “demographic dividend” is being grossly misinterpreted. It meant to describe a demographic transition whereby falling birth rates change the age distribution of a country so that fewer investments are required to meet the needs of the younger sector of the population. During this period the labour force temporarily grows more rapidly than the population dependent on it, releasing resources for investment in economic development and family welfare and resulting in faster per capita income growth. "South Korea, China, and some other East Asian countries have benefited hugely from such a demographic dividend over the last 40 years."

In the past huge economic growth in China and India - the two most populous countries on earth (due to its one-child policy, China will soon be overtaken by India) - boosted incomes and lifted millions out of poverty, ensuring stability and prosperity. But this trend has faltered in recent years - there aren't enough jobs to go around. Every year millions of young people with or without higher education flock into the job markets. Corruption and nepotism are widespread. If there is a vibrancy among young people, there is also great anger.

The numbers of unemployed and under-employed graduates in China and India are staggering. Many are alienated, unable to join the growing middle class. In China these young people become part of the country's underclass - social groups such as peasants, migrant workers and unemployed workers, despite being intelligent and hard working. In India stress is exacerbated by the failure of authorities to provide even basic public services. Power cuts are common, and potable water is rare. Food prices and rents are rising etc.

The situation is different in many countries in Africa and South Asia, where literacy is low and fertility high. Traditional values prevail: bigger families mean more workers to help feed the family, and boys are seen as more valuable than girls, whose future revolves around motherhood. An extremely high youth unemployment rate of 23.4 % (even the better educated were affected), was one major cause for the 2011 Arab Spring. Even if young people had jobs, working conditions were often very poor: low wages, little social protection, lack of career prospects and social mobility.

The author says there is no way that the governments in India, Pakistan, and "above all" in Africa will be able to "create 10-12 million new jobs per year simply to keep pace with the working-age population, and far more to absorb the huge numbers of already-underemployed workers." Instead of focusing on an educated population, leaders don't have the courage to curb population growth, like encouraging women to get an education and join the work force. Kicking the can down the road, the millions of jobs they usually brag about are in low-skilled sectors like garment manufacturing, which could be automated away.

"Iran, where the fertility rate fell from 6.5 in the 1980s to below two by 2005, shows what is possible even in supposedly traditional religious societies." Egypt is pushing to educate people in rural areas on birth control and family planning in a bid to slow a population growth that President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said poses a threat to national development. By 2030 Egypt's population would reach 130 million if left unchecked.

Africa, home to 1.2 billion (up from just 477 million in 1980), could double its population to 2.5 billion by 2100. Young people there "will inhabit a world where only a tiny fraction will ever find work in export-oriented manufacturing." China will see a significant decline, which brings also advantages, like "driving up real wages and creating powerful incentives for high investment in automation."

The author urges leaders to not deny the problem population growth poses and to face the reality that technology will be part of our future. It is therefore imperative to focus on quality rather than quantity - a small but highly competitive population. "In a world of radical possibilities for displacing human labor, too many workers will be a far bigger problem than too few."