As with the previous years, the nominees are listed in the order I’d rank them overall, so what’s listed at the top is what I would pick to win. Listed in Italics is what I expect will win, it feels like a very chalky Oscars. Also for the first time ever I saw every nominee in every category, so I’m probably more informed than most of the voters. Anyways here’s all the picks and all the ranks.

Best Picture

Parasite

Little Women

The Irishman

1917

Ford v Ferrari

Marriage Story

Once Upon A Time in Hollywood

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Notes: You can read full reviews for the nominees at their links. I’m hoping for all of the top 3, fine with 1917 winning, and can live with anything that’s not the Joker. This is a stacked field, I had the Favourite at the top of my list from last year’s nominations and it would be 6th or 7th this year.

Best Director

Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

Sam Mendes (1917)

Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)

Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Todd Phillips (Joker)

Notes: Todd Phillips nomination here is the most head scratching one of the year. I’d have him 15th? On my own list with Gerwig, Baumbach, Taika, The Russos, Mangold, Johnson, and many others ahead of him. For the top spot, it’s the technical masterpiece of 1917 versus the human side and beauty of Parasite. I’ll pick Bong Joon Ho’s personal and emotional touch myself, while I expect Mendes’ one shot to win. Scorsese and Tarantino have been here before for better work, both are well directed but don’t match what’s above them.

Actor in a Leading Role

Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)

Adam Driver (Marriage Story)

Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Notes: This is probably my hottest take in terms of who should win, but Banderas is simply better. Phoenix will win and is the showier role because the academy loves mentally ill/crazy, but Banderas is more human, rough, lost, and hopeful throughout. Driver is lights out in Marriage Story and even has the usual Award winning scene, but is gonna fall short. Pryce is by far the best of the Two Popes but this is a stacked field. Leo outside of the trailer sequence is just kind of Leo, he’s been a lot better in a lot more stuff.

Actress in a Leading Role

Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)

Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)

Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)

Renée Zellweger (Judy)

Charlize Theron (Bombshell)

Notes: One of the weaker fields for the Oscars this year, which makes Zellwegger being the favourite even more head scratching. She’s fine as Judy, but that’s a nothing special performance. Johansson’s Nicole shows more range, emotion, and depth, and Saorise with her 3rd nomination would seem more “due” to win than Zellwegger who’s already won before. Cynthia Erivo gets the heaviest role in terms of historical impact, and does a good job carrying most of Harriet, but there’s something missing in a role that feels like it should stand out from the pack. Charlize looks a lot like Megyn Kelly but isn’t exactly compelling in the role.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Florence Pugh (Little Women)

Laura Dern (Marriage Story)

Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)

Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)

Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

Notes: Dern’s two faced lawyer act in Marriage Story is great and going to get her the win, since she’s won everything leading into the Oscars. I thought Florence’s dual act was much better, going from the youngest sister wanting to maturing as she gets older and is still struggling to be everything to everyone. Scarlett’s Jojo role is a very different mother than the other mother role she’s nominated for, but I think I like this one just as much, she gets one angry comedy scene that’s terrific. The last two are kind of meh, Kathy Bates has played Mother better than this and Margot Robbie is better in OUATIH if she was going to get nominated.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Al Pacino (The Irishman)

Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)

Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Joe Pesci (The Irishman)

Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)

Notes: In terms of raw starpower and career talent, this is probably the most stacked list of names in Academy award history. Only Pitt has never won, and 3 of them won for lead acting. And going by the build up into this they’ll have all won after the night. I do appreciate Pitt’s ability to laugh at himself and talk about how easy the role was for him. I’d have Pacino giving an exciting performance that gets The Irishman started over him, and every scene with Hanks is the best part of a Beautiful day in the neighbourhood. Both extremely elevate their movies. Pesci is also strong in The Irishman. I’d replace Hopkins (who’s good not great) with Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse, but the Academy seemed all too content to ignore that movie.

Adapted Screenplay

Little Women (Greta Gerwig)

The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)

The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)

Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)

Joker (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)

Notes: I’d hope this is Gerwig’s to lose. Her take on the story, the ending, the personal touches all elevate the story. But it seems to be a two horse race with Jojo which had its moments but I didn’t enjoy overall near as much as Little Women. The Irishman well, it’s what it is. The Two Popes works much better than I expected and is the story of life more than anything else. Like Director Joker’s inclusion in this category throughout award season is head scratching.

Original Screenplay

Knives Out (Rian Johnson)

Parasite (Bong Joon Ho & Jin Won Han)

Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)

1917 (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)

Notes: Thrilled to see Knives Out here, funny, witty, original and quite charming. Would’ve liked to see it show up in a few more categories including Best Picture, but alas, better here than nowhere. It’s a testament to how good Parasite that a foreign film earned a screenwriting nomination and I think is going to be the first foreign film since Talk to Her (2002) to win. Marriage story is a good screenplay elevated by great acting and OUATIH is an hour of great screenplay and 90 minutes of meh. 1917, while a brilliant watch, I didn’t feel anything special about the screenplay itself.

International Feature Film

Parasite (South Korea)

Pain and Glory (Spain)

Les Miserables (France)

Corpus Christi (Poland)

Honeyland (North Macedonia)

Notes: Parasite is covered in the reviews for Best Picture, it’s winning here, it should win elsewhere it’s fantastic. Pain and Glory is a brilliant introspective look at pain while maintaining hope and some love throughout, and carried by a brilliant performance by Banderas. Les Miserables (not the play) is a solid crooked cop drama that I only wish went where I felt the ending was leading instead of the kind of cop out we get instead. Corpus Christi is another interesting movie with a horrible ending that I felt undercut it’s entire story. Honeyland is fine and makes some statements on environmental sustainability and our role in it, but I didn’t find as gripping as the others.

Animated Feature Film

Toy Story 4 (Pixar)

Klaus (Netflix)

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

I Lost My Body (Netflix)

Missing Link (United Artists Releasing)

Notes: Despite the inclusion of a Pixar film, this might be the most open category of the night. Missing Link won the globe, the excellent Klaus won the BAFTA and Toy Story 4 has added a few awards along the way. TS4 was great but more than 2 or 3 felt unnecessary. Klaus was refreshing to find a new enjoyable Christmas movie. I don’t think Hidden world lived up to 1 or 2, but it provides an emotional satisfying conclusion for the trilogy. I lost my body is a neat idea, that I don’t think met it’s lofty targets or nailed the ending. Missing link had charming moments and certainly a more reflective ending than the usual animated fair but was a little too slow and tropey at parts to be much more.

Documentary Feature

For Sama (PBS)

The Cave (National Geographic)

American Factory (Netflix)

The Edge of Democracy (Netflix)

Honeyland (Neon)

Notes: For Sama is filmed by a mother for her daughter a that daughter is born and raised in Aleppo during the Syrian civil war. Covering her and her husband falling in love and their cover between staying and helping civilians or fleeing for their lives, it will turn you into a puddle. The Cave covers the same conflict from the view of a hospital running through a cave network for safety. Focused on Amani Ballour, it details the struggles of medicine and constant bombing and chemical warfare from the syrian government. While For Sama feels more personal, the Cave is also fantastic documentation of how bad it can be. American Factory is Obama produced and covers a Chinese comment reopening an American Factory, it’s smart in displaying the culture differences and I’m surprised the Chinese signed off on all the footage in it. Edge of democracy covers the previous two regimes in Brazil how they had democracy and have returned to the brink of dictatorship. As mentioned in foreign Honeyland is fine but didn’t find it up to par with the rest.

Cinematography

The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)

1917 (Roger Deakins)

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)

Joker (Lawrence Sher)

The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)

Notes: The first two are in a category of their own 1917’s thing is the one take, and it’s used in so many creative ways for some utterly gorgeous shots, especially the night sequences. However, The Lighthouse, which should be up for a handful of other awards (Dafoe, Directing, Best Picture) uses the old black and white style and looks stunning throughout. Even the shots of the waves are gorgeous. Joker on the steps is probably the most famous shot of the year, but I thought Hollywood’s overall work put it past, and while I greatly enjoyed The Irishman, I found the cinematography outside of the dinner sequence to be mostly good but nothing special.

Production Design

Parasite

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Jojo Rabbit

The Irishman

Notes: The house structures of Parasite were extremely impressive. Movie aside, OUATIH did a great job recreating 1960s hollywood, the cars, the houses, the sets were all outstanding. 1917’s trench work early on and late were probably the most work into production design for any of these. I’m not sure what was standout about The Irishman Production wise besides the one dinner set. Jojo is a twist on WW2 sets but I’ve seen so many of those it’s tough to be impressed.

Film Editing

Ford v Ferrari

Parasite

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Notes: The editing in Ford v Ferrari is a large part of what makes the movie work, the piecing together of those racing scenes and cuts to the driver, car, watchers is spectacular. Parasite gets a lot of added tension from the cinematography and editing style applied to it. I’m sure people will find it odd to have the 3.5 hour Irishman here, but it’s a fairly compact story and the editing is more than just deciding what’s in the movie. Irishman is well put together top to bottom and the editing is no different. Jojo and Joker are near the bottom of this category, for Joker I actually thought the editing and script ruined a lot of pace and did nothing for me, while Jojo felt more effective and by the numbers in terms of edits.

Visual Effects

Avengers: Endgame

1917

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

The Lion King

The Irishman

Notes: Endgame’s action sequences particularly at the end are a special effects showcase. And knowing the time suits were fully designed post production, but look seamless and real on screen is quite the feat, plus there’s no weird Banner floating head this time. 1917 will likely win, and its effects are top-notch the behind the scenes stuff widely available is excellent. I tend to value the big special effects movies more here, so Skywalker 3rd, Lion King looks great but it’s all animated so meh, and there’s a few scenes of the deaging special effects in The Irishman that are rough.

Costume Design

Little Women

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

The Irishman

Notes: The academy loves period pieces for this award and this year I do apparently. The dresses in Little Women are excellent and incredibly stylish for them being so poor. Hollywood, features some great 70’s era clothes and the on-set costumes are fantastic. Jojo nails the WW2 look, but that feels like very worn territory at this point. Speaking of worn territory we have the Joker, a villain costume that’s been done to death. And lastly we have The Irishman, where I’m guessing it’s nominated for the suits? There’s not much special here, maybe it was for the shorts.

Original Score

Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)

1917 (Thomas Newman)

Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)

Marriage Story (Randy Newman)

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (John Williams)

Notes: The lively Little Women score is a heart-warming delight and if Joker doesn’t win I’d expect Desplat to pick up his 3rd Oscar. The 1917 score is asked to do a lot as there isn’t a lot of dialogue and it has to cover all kinds of emotional scenes, Newman delivers, even if a few parts felt like Zimmer’s Dunkirk score. Joker’s score is one of the highlights of the movie to me. Marriage Story’s score is fine, but nowhere near Newman’s best to rise above the rest. And Skywalker is here because John Williams did it, it’s not a memorable Star Wars score, but congrats to him on an insane 52nd nomination.

Documentary Short Subject

Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)

St. Louis Superman

In the Absence

Life Overtakes Me

Walk Run Cha-Cha

Notes: learning to skateboard is a tour de force in this category, both being hopeful in tough times and not glossing over how awful Kabul can be. St Louis Superman is a similar uplifting in tough times as rep Earl goes from Battle rapper to the state legislature to try and improve his area of St Louis. In the absence is an emotional watch detailing the rescue failure of a sinking ferry in South Korea, who’s issues run all the way to the President. Life Overtakes Me covers one of the most bizarre things I’ve ever heard of, Resignation syndrome. In Sweden (and mostly only Sweden) kids of parents seeking refugee status are entering month to multi-year comas with seemingly no cause or immediate cure. This one feels like there’s more story to be told in a full length feature. Cha Cha won’t win but is a welcome breath of cheer from the rest of the nominees, a love story and a love of dance.

Animated Short Film

Memorable

Sister

Hair Love

Kitbull

Dcera (Daughter)

Notes: Memorable uses its paint aesthetic to portray a man with Alzheimers to perfection. It’s beautiful and endearing and eloquently shows the struggle of him and those around him. Sister is a different style with cotton stuffed looking people. The main character narrates the story of his sister with an impactful twist at the end. Hair Love is a funny story of a Dad learning how to do his daughters hair the way she likes it. Kitbull combines a story of friendship and animal abuse which doesn’t sound possible but it works. And Daughter was kind of confusing about birds fathers and daughters. The showing aired additional non nominated animated shorts and Hors Piste from France should’ve taken this slot.

Live-Action Short Film

Saria

The Neighbors’ Window

Brotherhood

A Sister

Nefta Football Club

Notes: Saria is based on a true story and is a heart-breaking about an orphanage in Guatemala that is a lot closer to prison than a home. The Neighbours’ Window is a genuinely funny, well executed concept of a married couple watching a younger couple through their apartment windows. Brotherhood hits hard around a brother returning home to his parents after leaving against their will to fight for ISIS. It felt better set to be a full length feature and needed more time. Nefta Football club was light-hearted for a story about two young brothers finding a lost drug mule. And A Sister felt like a sped up version of the Halle Berry movie The Call, where a 911 operator gets a call from someone trapped in a car. All of them were great watches, but Saria stands alone on top for me.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Joker

Bombshell

1917

Judy

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Notes: One of the categories Joker is rightfully nominated, but one where I suspect Bombshell will win for how much the actresses resemble their real life counter parts. 1917’s work on the gore of war and the people in the trenches was outstanding. Judy included here is just odd, outside of making Renee look like Judy it doesn’t do much else. And Maleficent is the same stuff we saw in the first movie.

Original Song

“Into the Unknown” (Frozen 2) — Robert Lopez & Kristen Anderson-Lopez

“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” (Rocketman) — Elton John & Bernie Taupin

“Stand Up” (Harriet) — Joshuah Brian Campbell & Cynthia Erivo

“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” (Toy Story 4) — Randy Newman

“I’m Standing With You” (Breakthrough) — Diane Warren

Notes: Guessing this is a two horse race between the top two, who’ve both won before (Elton for Can You Feel the Love Tonight? And Lopez/Anderson-Lopez for Remember Me and Let It Go). Elton however didn’t win with Taupin and I’m guessing that will put him over the edge here. Throw Yourself Away falls deep in the shadows of other Toy Story tracks You’ve Got a Friend in Me, When She Loved Me, and We Belong Together. And Standing with You is here because Diane Warren is attached to it, that’s 11 nominations in this category for her now.

Sound Mixing

Ford v Ferrari

1917

Ad Astra

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Joker

Notes: This is the overall sound of the movie, with everything put together what movie sounds the best. The War movie (especially one with a good soundtrack) is always the safe pick to actually win, and if 1917 is going to win bigger things this is where it will start. The car noises, soundtrack and audio all blend excellently for FvF. Ad Astra gets the space advantage here, which helps with nominations and rarely wins. I didn’t hate the movie like some, and think it being nominated here makes sense. I didn’t find Joker’s overall sound to be particularly great minus the soundtrack, and Hollywood is fine.

Sound Editing

Ford v Ferrari

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Joker

Notes: This is sounds effects editing, so things added or created soundwise. Like most years the safe pick is the war movie. The issue with Star Wars is it’s all sounds we’ve heard before. Joker’s sound effects are nothing special. Hollywood’s added sound gets better like the movie by the end but also doesn’t stand out to me for this category. I’d vote for FvF and the car work to win, but expect 1917 and it’s excellent war sounds to bring it home

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There’s all the rankings, all the predictions, and it certainly feels like 1917 is going to win a lot. Here’s hoping for Parasite to find a way to win Best Picture.