if the headlines are right and John Key is at his 'most unpopular' … then why is Andrew Little doing so badly?

OPINION: John Key has finally fallen over. He's at rock bottom.

It's all over. He's lost touch. He's arrogant. The tide has turned. He's toast.

I hear these things all the time. Oh, and one more. John Key is at his most unpopular/least popular. Only that last statement is true, of course.

Key was down just over 1 per cent, to 36.7 per cent, in Newshub's poll this week.

Is it cause for concern and the alarmist headline that he'd "plunged to new depths"?

No. It's true that the shine comes off after eight years and it has to a point with Key. The tread always comes off the tyres the longer you are in office.

But here's the uncomfortable truth for Labour. And this is the bit causing all the consternation in their caucus – National still sits at 47 per cent in the polls.

It's still true that under Key, National has a remarkable vice-like grip on voters according to the polls.

At 47 per cent, National is still polling the same now as it did when it first took office in 2008. It's impossible to escape that, no matter what you think of him.

Absolutely, affordable housing is an issue. Yes, National's been caught embarrassingly flat-footed on this issue. But home owners are still voting for National in their droves. Home-owners vote, renters don't always.

A huge chunk of voters still believe Key and National and its pragmatic approach is the best option. It's a remarkable result and so much of the credit must go to John Key.

So, if the headlines are right and John Key is at his 'most unpopular' … then why is Andrew Little doing so badly?

The Labour leader's popularity sits at a woeful 8.9 per cent.

In this week's poll he shed 25 per cent of his support. Because Little has had a poor and confused year. He is now more unpopular than David Shearer when he was rolled. He's no more popular than David Cunliffe.

Little and his party chase every passing bus when he promised he wouldn't. There doesn't appear to be a decent strategy or coherent approach.

Take the recent PR shambles when Labour invited journalists to visit a supposedly overcrowded South Auckland house. Reporters arrived at a property to be met not by Little but by the indignant occupant explaining that the tent was full of furniture and renovation materials, not huddling masses. Labour's media team is a mess.

Little's Budget speech on Thursday was strong enough, but yet again Winston Peters handed him a lesson in how to ram home your criticism.

Would Jacinda Ardern and Phil Twyford be a better leadership team? Both are from Auckland. Both have performed well this year. Both know the issues. But sources tell me this won't happen.

The caucus is resigned to heading into the election with Little at the helm. There is a growing acceptance within that Little won't lead them to victory.

My sources also tell me Little has failed to raise any money and that's crucial. Also, who can even tell what Labour really stands for any more.

Yes they claim they will sort out the housing woes, apparently, with a major scheme to build 100,000 homes across 10 years. Sounds great. Is it possible? Who knows.

Little's claim to sort the housing crisis out within the first term doesn't ring true.

No amount of wand- waving can sort Auckland's housing issues within three years. It's impossible.

Labour used to stand for a capital gains tax, then they dropped it. Yet this week they have talked once again about new taxes and targeting property investors and speculators. Does that mean a capital gains tax again? Possibly. But not for the 2017 election.

Then there's immigration. It's a massive issue in Auckland. More than 68,000 are now coming into New Zealand every year.

The majority settle in Auckland. Winston Peters says he wants to cut that back by 40,000 a year. It won't happen but it sounds good.

Labour says immigration needs to be looked at too – but it hasn't really settled on a policy that anyone can articulate. It's too frightened to sound xenophobic.

Does Labour want drastic cuts to numbers? No. Yes. No. Who knows. Do they know?

Labour needs to settle on five crucial policies and target the voters with them. Bill English had 72 policies in his woeful 2002 election campaign. Labour needs to look at that as a lesson.

Both John Key and Andrew Little's numbers are going backwards. But Key is still in power and still holds the advantage. Little needs to be growing his numbers in the face of the PM's slow slide.

And crucially, Labour needs to present itself as a government-in-waiting. It is a long, long way from that.

And that means there is only one winner here: Winston Peters.

Peters is a comfortable second behind John Key as preferred prime minister. That makes him the leader of the Opposition doesn't it?

His party is increasingly popular as it taps into the discontent around immigration and the lack of regional growth.

All signs point to Peters as the deal-maker next election.

And after seeing him prop up National in 1996, there's nothing that suggests he won't do it again.