

Theoildrum.com's meteorologist friend, Chuck Watson, has an updated analysis:

"Although the raw models on our page are still showing peak shut ins fairly high, they aren't properly factoring in the fact that many platforms/rigs aren't shutting in since Edouard is fairly weak and they don't have time to get the crews off without a major and expensive push anyway. So I'm sticking with a peak impact of 30% or so short term, minimal damage to the offshore infrastructure.

Onshore is an interesting situation. We have added a list of refineries in the damage swath, along with estimated down times. The down times are currently all sitting at 2 days, since it is anticipated that there will be no significant damage, but some precautionary actions will interfere with production. A slight increase in intensity and this could get bad quick if the storm stays on track - lots of valuable, and, compared to the offshore stuff, very vulnerable infrastructure in the way. 70kts and no opportunity to build big waves won't hurt most modern rigs/platforms much, but 70kts and even a foot or two of water in a refinery is bad news.

"