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This election could be the closest since the one in 1972 that resulted in a razor-thin Liberal plurality of 109 seats to 107 Conservatives, with the NDP holding the balance of power.

At the weekend, the CBC’s Poll Tracker put the Liberals at 36 per cent, in a range of 114 to 152 seats, with the Conservatives at 31 per cent, in a range of 95 to 137 seats, and the NDP at 24 per cent, in a range of 70 to 103 seats.

In other words, either the Liberals or Conservatives can form a minority government, and the NDP can still be the official opposition if the Conservatives collapse to third place.

And in between, there could be a hung Parliament like 1972. That would depend on the vote by age and region, the efficiency of the vote, and the importance of the advance poll, in which 3.6 million Canadians voted after family confabs over Thanksgiving weekend.

The advance poll, which increased by 70 per cent over 2011, could end up being 20 per cent of the overall turnout. In what amounted to an exit poll, EKOS tracked the advance poll over the four days and found the Liberals and Conservatives essentially tied. On election night, the advance poll could be the margin of a plurality for one party or the other.

The Conservatives lead among older voters and homeowners, who are considered likely voters. The Liberals lead among younger voters and “change voters,” who are considered slightly less likely voters.

The Liberals are poised to sweep most of the 32 seats in Atlantic Canada. The vote share in Quebec will determine the distribution of its 78 seats—with the Liberals strong in the 514 Montreal Island region, the Conservatives leading in the Quebec City 418, and the NDP holding on in the rest of the province.

Then there’s the debate about whether there’s a silent Conservative vote, of up to three points, that isn’t measured in the polls. It’s hocus-pocus, not science, but the Conservatives are counting on it. Then there’s the debate about whether there’s a silent Conservative vote, of up to three points, that isn’t measured in the polls. It’s hocus-pocus, not science, but the Conservatives are counting on it.

In Ontario, if the Liberals win by double digits as many polls indicate, they could capture as many as 80 of the province’s 121 seats. In the Conservative fortress of Alberta, the blue team should win as many 30 out of 34 seats. In British Columbia with 42 seats, all the polls point to a dead heat among the Big Three parties, with the Green Party winning at least one seat on Vancouver Island, and possibly one or two more.

Then there’s the question of vote efficiency. The Liberals will have significant “wasted” majorities in the Atlantic, Montreal and downtown Toronto 416. Similarly, the Conservatives will have wasted majorities in Alberta outside of Edmonton and Calgary. How wasted majorities will impact on seat counts remains to be seen.

Then there’s the debate about whether there’s a silent (or “shy”) Conservative vote, usually estimated at something close to three points, that isn’t measured in the polls. It’s hocus-pocus, not science, but the Conservatives are counting on it.

Finally there are the closing days of the campaign, with the leaders’ tours, messages and advertising. The Liberals’ momentum surge was stopped at mid-week, at least in Quebec, by the resignation of their campaign co-director Dan Gagnier for having given paid advice to TransCanada Corp on how to deal with a new government on building the Energy East pipeline. It was a serious error in judgment, and out of character for Gagnier, who by way of disclosure is a personal friend and former colleague of many years. The NDP and Conservatives were all over it, on their leaders’ tours in Quebec, and with new attack ads on the weekend.

In Quebec, a bad moment for the Liberals was exacerbated by them putting Jean Chrétien out for an event the day after the story broke, recalling all the memories of the sponsorship scandal and the Liberal culture of entitlement. Even worse, two Quebecers in three oppose Energy East, which is one of two ballot questions for the Bloc Québécois, the other being the niqab. It’s no coincidence that the Bloc’s animated attack ad shows oil from a pipeline spill morphing into a niqab. How this plays out over the final days will not have been captured by the polls on the closing weekend of the campaign.

Even so, while the Liberals may not win the election, they have clearly won the campaign. Having gone into the campaign in third place, they have been growing for 11 weeks, and positioned for Justin Trudeau to move into one of two boyhood homes, 24 Sussex or Stornoway.

The worst that can happen to him, according to the CBC Poll Tracker, is to triple the Liberal deputation in the House from 35 to 115 members. Which, in and of itself, is a major victory. From third party to official opposition or government.

As for turning points in the campaign, two stand out. In the first leaders’ debate, and in most of the next four, Trudeau not only exceeded expectations, he proved he belonged on the stage.

And then the Liberals outflanked the NDP on the left by saying they would run $10 billion deficits their first two years in office, and another deficit in the third before balancing the books in 2019. This was a big differentiating moment between the Liberals and NDP, and gave the Grits the advantage as the agents of change.

Trudeau inoculated or bullet-proofed himself just by staking a claim on fiscal full disclosure by saying he would run deficits, after which the amount didn’t matter. One billion, $10 billion or‎ $20 billion, doesn’t matter. Next question please.

Trudeau also benefited from the length of the campaign in his retail game. As the campaign went on, his crowds kept growing, and his stamina was remarkable.

As for Stephen Harper, he showed up on the popular French-language variety-talk show En Mode Salvail the other night, relaxed, playing the piano, singing a Beatles song and another one in French. This is a guy Quebecers have never seen before—Harper unplugged, tres dégagé. The prime time show normally pulls about half a million viewers in Quebec.

Who knows how many of them might have seen another side of Harper? And would it make any difference on Monday?

Perhaps, like the election itself, it’s too soon to say. Or as EKOS pollster Frank Graves put it at the weekend: “It’s too close to call.”

L. Ian MacDonald is editor of Policy, the bi-monthly magazine of Canadian politics and public policy. He is the author of five books. He served as chief speechwriter to Prime Minister Brian Mulroney from 1985-88, and later as head of the public affairs division of the Canadian Embassy in Washington from 1992-94. The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.