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Ukip’s Mark Reckless is poised to win this week’s by-election in Rochester & Strood. A major reason is immigration, ranked as the most important issue by the British electorate.

In a recently published report for Demos, my colleague Gareth Harris and I analysed census and survey data and ran focus groups to understand the White British response to ethnic change.

Rather than list the policy recommendations that might draw the sting from these forces, I’ve decided to phrase my recommendations in the form of a fictive letter from the Prime Minister to a friend swayed by Ukip, or a speech he might give.

The ethnic majority in England needs to be reassured.

The key point is that the ethnic majority in England, as in other European countries, needs to be reassured it has a future in an age of migration. When addressing minorities, the current narrative of ever-increasing diversity under an umbrella of shared British values is appropriate.

But when speaking to the ethnic majority a different narrative is required. This is not dishonest or two-faced, but represents a legitimate form of the diplomatic technique of constructive ambiguity, which recognises minority and majority Britons often connect to the nation in different ways.

Dear Ukipper,

I understand that immigration is your number one concern. I know from the extensive body of research on support for the far right and opposition to immigration that your concern with migration is primarily cultural, not economic. You feel the country is changing too fast. Your area remains overwhelmingly white English, but when you go downtown, or visit Birmingham or London, it feels like a foreign country.

Besides, you read in the paper that immigrants from Europe and beyond are entering the country illegally. You yearn for stability, cohesion and continuity. At bottom, you worry that the England you know – a land settled by people who have lived here for centuries, united by history, memory, traditions and ancestry – is in terminal decline.

Immigration is difficult to greatly reduce because, as part of the European Union, we must permit the free movement of people from other EU countries. As a signatory to human rights conventions, we have to allow a reasonable degree of family reunification – we wouldn’t want to prevent British citizens bringing their spouses and children here to keep their family together. Tourists and students bring much needed export income to Britain, though we are working hard to ensure that people don’t overstay their visas.

I’m not going to tell you immigrants put in more than they take out because I know economics is not your main concern.

Finally, skills shortages in certain sectors such as nursing mean it’s important for us to admit immigrants to fill these jobs – at least until we can train up enough British people to fill them. So it will be difficult to reduce immigration much further – certainly as long as we are a member of the EU.

We could leave Europe, but this would make it much more difficult for English people to settle in Spain, France or other countries and may carry adverse economic consequences because overseas investors count on us as an English-speaking gateway to the continent. Pollsters tell us most British people still wish to remain in the EU. So while we must control our borders and restore faith in the immigration system, significant inflows will continue into the foreseeable future.

Hearing this probably reinforces your belief that the ethnic English majority of this country is doomed because England is becoming increasingly diverse through both immigration and a younger minority population. You notice this most of all in hospital maternity wards and schools, where ethnic minorities or European immigrants form a disproportionate share of the young people using these services. I’m not going to tell you immigrants put in more than they take out because I know economics is not your main concern. What I want to focus on is culture and identity in a time of change.

Above all, I want to challenge your pessimistic view about the English majority.

Our government, and previous administrations, have exacerbated majority fear by dispersing refugees and council tenants to close-knit, homogeneous areas instead of to places with a history of population turnover and diversity. We haven’t considered how housebuilding and social housing decisions can accelerate local ethnic shifts. We will be more attentive to these dynamics in the future, seeking to build garden cities or dispersed development so as not to transform existing communities.

But above all, I want to challenge your pessimistic view about the English majority. A big mistake the media and government have made is to talk up ethnic change, emphasising how we are getting ever more diverse and how Britishness must change to adapt to this reality. Yet people forget that in many ways England is getting less diverse. This is a message the majority needs to hear more often because we know from American immigration history that it is only when the majority is confident in its ability to assimilate newcomers that the temperature of the immigration debate falls and social cohesion improves.

I would like to reassure you, as a member of the English majority, that the future of your group is secure. Consider these facts. First, European immigrants and their children tend to be rapidly absorbed into the White English majority. On the census and in surveys, the children of European and Irish immigrants increasingly call themselves White British even if their parents select ‘White Other’. Second, those of mixed-race, who share English ancestry with you, are growing faster than any major minority group and this advantage is predicted to grow sharply in the coming decades.

Who would deny they are members of the English majority? All connect with the history, traditions and memory of the English people.

Half of Afro-Caribbean people marry outside their group, and outmarriage is also substantial among East Asians and Africans. Even among South Asians, rates are increasing with each new generation. The majority of mixed-race people marry whites, and seem to be moving in the direction of complete absorption. Boris Johnson has Turkish ancestry, Iain Duncan Smith has Japanese background, and the not insubstantial pre-1945 black population of England and Wales completely melted into the majority.

Look at my opponents in this election – Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband, Nigel Farage. Clegg’s background includes German, Ukrainian, Dutch and Polish, and he has married a Spaniard. Miliband has East European Jewish roots. Farage has French and German ancestry and is married to a German. Yet who would deny they are members of the English majority? All connect with the history, traditions and memory of the English people.

You probably have friends, spouses or in-laws with some Irish, European or non-European heritage. Assimilation is a major reason why the share of White British people among those under twenty years of age is larger than among those aged 20-40. Assimilation doesn’t transform the majority: like the addition of new words to the English language, these changes are essentially superficial. All of which should challenge the prevailing idea that the ethnic majority of this country is in demise.

One more thing.

The story which the media and politicians have told about our country has not only exaggerated the perception we are becoming more diverse, but has compounded the problem by arguing that British national identity can be reduced to universal values like enterprise and toleration. I don’t dispute the importance of these values, and Britain did much to advance them. But the subtext of this message is that it is wrong to identify with Britain through one’s collective memories, history and ancestry even though that is how many – especially among the white English – connect to Britain.

We need to get away from the idea that national identity is handed down by the state in the form of a one-size-fits-all hymn sheet.

I think it’s perfectly normal to take pride in traditions associated with the ethnic majority such as the country pub, the local football terrace, rose gardening or the workingmen’s club. It’s natural to identify with England through a connection with one’s ancestors and the sacrifices of previous generations in the country. The important point is to be tolerant of those who connect to Britain in a different way. A Scot in Dundee or a recently arrived Somali immigrant will identify with Britain differently from you, focusing more on its institutions, civic symbols and laws, but that doesn’t make their loyalty any less strong.

Indeed we know from surveys that ethnic minorities have a very powerful attachment to Britain. We need to get away from the idea that national identity is handed down by the state in the form of a one-size-fits-all hymn sheet. In fact everyone views the nation somewhat differently depending on where they live, their ethnicity, region and class. We all share a flag, institutions, land, language and values, but national identity is much deeper than this.

You can rest assured that in the distant future there will be an ethnic majority in this country, descended from English ancestors, which connects to the same traditions, history and collective memory you do. There will always be minorities who identify with the nation in a different way, but the English majority will endure, despite immigration, long into our future.

Yours,

The Prime Minister

Eric Kaufmann is Professor of Politics at Birkbeck College, University of London. His latest publication is a Demos report, freely available, entitled “Changing Places: the White British response to ethnic change”.