Two weeks ago, Warren took the lead in New Hampshire. A poll showed her just marginally ahead, but those on the ground said she had become the one to beat . Then on Sunday, the most respected poll of Iowa caucus-goers found Warren, for the first time, ahead of the pack.

Now, with a little more than four months before the first votes are taken, just one candidate has an obvious path to the nomination: Senator Elizabeth Warren.

At one point there were 25 Democrats running for president this year, who all thought there might just be a chance they could make it to the White House.


More and more political insiders, including those who back other candidates for president, now believe that if the Democratic primary were held today, Warren would be the nominee.

A lot can happen in the four months before voters in Iowa kick off the process on a Monday evening in February. But if Warren wins in Iowa, she, like Al Gore and John Kerry, could use that momentum to augment an already strong New Hampshire organization and win the first-in-the-nation primary, sweeping the first two contests.

If that happens, history suggests it will be impossible to stop her. No one has won Iowa and New Hampshire and then went on to lose the nomination.

Just because Warren has the most obvious path to the nomination doesn’t mean that others don’t have a path at all. Warren’s lead in the first two states, after all, is well within the surveys’ margins of error, meaning she is statistically tied with others.

Warren’s path is basically the same as what Senator Bernie Sanders is aiming for. Sanders also has a strong campaign in New Hampshire.

However, at the moment, Sanders is falling in polling in early states and his campaign is shaking up staff — not a sign of strength.


Former vice president Joe Biden’s path appears to be even steeper than Warren’s or Sanders’ road to the nomination. Once, Biden, lifted by strong name recognition and an uncontested base of older and more moderate Democratic voters, was the front-runner everywhere.

Things have changed. Now, his first win, if one comes at all, seems like it would be in South Carolina, the fourth state to vote in the process. Waiting that long for a victory has never worked.

For everyone else, the path to the nomination is much less clear. When author Marianne Williamson was asked over the weekend what her path would be if she didn’t qualify for future debates, she was candid.

“Well, I don’t know actually,” she told a reporter.

If the 10 other candidates who were shut out of the debate were being honest, they would say the same thing.

As for those still in the debates — sure, Senator Kamala Harris or South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg could have a surprising showing in Iowa. But right now, both are polling in the single digits in Hawkeye State.

If that changes, they aren’t in a position in New Hampshire to translate that momentum in the way that both Warren and Sanders are.

And while Harris has said she will “move” to Iowa to jumpstart her campaign, a win there would leave her to heading to New Hampshire, the state where she is polling the worst. If that doesn’t change, her path to the nomination would involve some jumbled mix of Super Tuesday states, including her home base of California, and beyond.


Each candidate needs a story a tell, a believable path to the nomination to win donors and staff. Voters, too, are narrowing their own choices down to those who they see as viable candidates to beat President Trump.

While Warren is in an enviable position at the moment, this also means she is a big target. After all, now every other Democratic candidate’s path, in a way, has to go through Warren.

James Pindell can be reached at james.pindell@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell or subscribe to his Ground Game newsletter on politics:http://pages.email.bostonglobe.com/GroundGameSignUp