I originally write the bulk of this back in April / May when Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee’s book “The Second Machine Age” came out, but other things interceded. There has since been much ink spilled on the topic ([Techcrunch][Technology Review]) and recent press attention about AI has brought the topic the future of society, tech, jobs (and human life [Techcrunch]) back into focus again.

Brynjolfsson and McAfee’s is a great read and provides an interesting view on the potential impact of technology in the modern age. They argue compellingly that today’s advances in computing power, networking, artificial intelligence and robotics have put us on the cusp of a new productivity revolution that is on par with the invention of the Steam Engine in the late 1700’s — spectacular. Only this time, technology is not transforming what humans are physically capable of, but instead what they are mentally capable of — replacing brainpower, not muscle power.

The benefits of many of these emerging technologies are truly amazing: seamless automatic language translation, self-driving cars, data analysis well beyond human capabilities, and much more. These capabilities all have the potential to enable humans to be more productive and do much more than they can today — something that is already becoming obvious. Many of the technologies also immediately become building blocks for yet more innovation.

Unfortunately, although the benefit of these advances is spectacular, the authors and others highlight another huge consequence — the distribution of the wealth created by this newfound bounty may keep getting more and more uneven. Specifically, the impact on employment could be enormous — with large percentages of the population potentially seeing dramatically reduced work opportunities.

In essence — the first machine age enabled humans to move to brain driven activities in a higher plane to reap rewards — eventually most of the labour force was able to do so. In the second machine age when brainpower is what is being replaced — where does the labour force go? Furthermore the skill set required to create the engines of this intelligence — the machine themselves are highly focused, specialised and belong to increasingly small set of people.

While there are economic policy fixes to this widening gap, there is one recommendation in Brynjolfsson and McAfee’s book that stands out as clearly important: the emphasis on human creative thinking as the key capability that will set apart winners and losers in this Age. As machines become more intelligent, this is a key area where humans hold an advantage. Humans often also be even more effective when working in tandem with smarter machines than on their own. This sounds like a positive, but it raises new questions:

What will this creativity look like? Especially in the work place? And how will individuals be able to apply it? Who will be able to work with these intelligent machines?

This is a tough question, but at least some hope for optimism from a potentially unexpected quarter — that some of the answers might lie in some of the structural changes already happening all across many hardware and software, and two in particular :

The opening of increasing numbers of Web and other APIs for re-use by others

and the emergence of simpler script like programming frameworks.

On the surface these might have little to do with each other — and worse APIs today are certainly in the realm of complex programming today — hardly a good start as an enabler for more equality in the workforce!

However, going deeper, together these trends both simplify programming and make it more powerful at the same time. This change arguably has the power to bring simple and creative yet powerful programming into many more walks of life than today — something that would be unachievable with just today’s standard programming languages and which, if harnessed, could boost human productivity (and equality) enormously.

The Potential Employment Gap

This possibility that new generations of intelligent technology could negatively impact employment is perhaps most starkly illustrated by chart comparing labor productivity and private employment below.

Figure: Labor productivity v’s Private Employment over time [Source “The Second Machine Age”].

Productivity and employment have tracked each other for most of the postwar period, but as the chart shows, early 2000 sees a significant decoupling. Today productivity, corporate investment and GDP are at record highs, however the employment to population ratio in the United States is lower than at any time in the last 20 years.

Whether these trends are as strong as they appear is disputed (http://pando.com/2014/03/19/no-there-isnt-a-great-decoupling-between-pay-and-production/), however there has been a clear widening of inequality in the United States and in many other countries. Furthermore many of the pressures for decoupling are very real.

While this may be a temporary blip, it certainly gives pause for thought.

Beneficiaries of the Second Machine Age

If Brynjolfsson and McAfee are correct, the whole population will see productivity gains, but there will be very significant negative labor pressure. The vast majority of this negative impact will fall on routine cognitive tasks that are easily automated — data entry, repetitive calculations, decision making that can be captured as a rote learned set of rules and so forth. This means a significant slice of white-collar jobs.

One option to avoid the widening economic gap would be to restrict deployment of these new intelligent technologies in the first place. While this may have some effect, the Luddite strategy limits the benefits the technology can bring. Also, since there is no single global political system, there is nothing stopping other nations adopting these technologies instead and getting ahead of those nations that choose to ban it.

A key challenge therefore seems to be — how to put the power of these technologies into the hands of more than just the few? Not as consumers, but as creators and participants?

APIs, Apps, Scripting and Creativity

There is little doubt that the ability to program and control complex software and hardware systems will be a defining factor for success in the new era. In other words — the ability to orchestrate modern systems, be they software or hardware — will be an essential skill and those that master it will likely be highly successful in the industries they work in. Computer programs stand to be the new masters of the Universe.

Does this mean every student should learn programming? Although it sounds like a solution (and many more could certainly benefit than today), this is neither practical nor desirable. There is certainly a strong need for more computer engineers across many industries, but it would be an extreme challenge to retrain so many individuals. The level of difficulty in training good engineers and the impact these engineers have is part of what is driving the premium wages in the category. Today, computer programming is a full time occupation. In other words, it leaves little time to learn the nuances of some other domain — the domain in which software must operate. So it’s likely a poor choice to take a skilled logistics planner, and turn them into a full time software engineer, or to turn an excellent — much of the valuable domain expertise would simply be lost. One could consider starting with just new graduates, but also here even of those who self select computer science degrees to not all go on to become productive programmers.

So if the answer is not to send everybody to engineering school — what is it?

Another tack might be instead of pushing everybody to the same level of complexity — reduce that complexity and make programming more accessible.

More precisely — if complex, programming cannot be effectively taught in its current form to the general population, then: make it simpler. However, it needs to be done in a way which retains the power of the complex fully fledged version of programming.

Although this sounds like an impossible trick, there is one way in which we may just have the answer that is needed — the combination of APIs and Scripting:

Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) are a technology that provide standardized computer interfaces to highly valuable data or control functions are on the increase. These range from the ability to fill a prescription at Walgreens, tweet a message, order a book or change the setting of a thermostat many miles away. These interfaces represent the new building blocks of the software/hardware world. Engineers use them as back-end support services to make their software programs run. Their power lies not in the complexity of the code written to call them but in the power of the services they connect to — which can be as complex as an auto supply chain or as simple as a google search.

are a technology that provide standardized computer interfaces to highly valuable data or control functions are on the increase. These range from the ability to fill a prescription at Walgreens, tweet a message, order a book or change the setting of a thermostat many miles away. These interfaces represent the new building blocks of the software/hardware world. Engineers use them as back-end support services to make their software programs run. Their power lies not in the complexity of the code written to call them but in the power of the services they connect to — which can be as complex as an auto supply chain or as simple as a google search. Scripting: in addition to standard software apps and mobile apps, a new class of “programming” is emerging in simple programs written as simple “IF-THEN” rules that apply simple actions to a set of APIs to create change in the world. These are exemplified by services such as IFTTT, Zapier or Cloudwork — the former is consumer orientated, the latter two workplace focused. These services allow non-programmers to set up simple actions such as:

o If I receive an email from Dave, send me an SMS also.

o If I take an Instagram photo, save it in Dropbox as well.

o If a customer opens a ticket in our customer support system, update our CRM also so that the sales team is aware there is an issue.

o If the weather is rainy today, switch the lights to blue when I wake up.

These systems are very simple today, but the potential power of APIs combined with apps and scripting limitless. APIs are beginning to provide access to nearly every physical and data access available, and scripting provides a simplified means for non-programmers to affect complex change in the world.

Why APIs and Scripting and Not Just General Programming?

At this point, a legitimate question would be — why is this so different from simply teaching people to program? Simple programming languages have existed for a long time — Basic was simple.

However, there is a major difference:

Some previous languages were simple but they were never powerful in the sense of how they could directly affect the world.

But APIs can make them powerful — by providing real-time real data and the ability act with real physical resources.

We have never been in a situation where a simple set of primitives can do so much. It is only now that the backend physical and data systems are coming on line to allow direct action in the world.

The net effect is that an individual now has the power to create significant new value by writing simple scripts.

Creativity and The Building Blocks of the Second Machine Age

By itself this could be a powerful engine — but it is the composability of these APIs and Scripts that really drives change.

Each technical revolution creates building blocks that can be combined in new creative ways for more productivity. For example, the technologies from the industrial revolution have allowed many things to be invented many times over — a 2014 Tesla car is all but be indistinguishable from magic to someone who had seen only an early steam engine.

In the Second Machine Age, many of the building blocks are new technologies such as intelligent algorithms, robotic platforms, or guidance system components. However, they are also APIs and scripts / apps — software and services. An API that is accessible for use provides a permanently addressable building block that can be combined with others to create something new. This is not only true of digital media resources like Google searches or Facebook Photos — but of physical items such as delivery trucks that roll when an order is made, or drones which map farm fields to assess the impact to weather events.

Empowering Individuals

As APIs become more widespread and scripting / apps more accessible to the general populace, the potential is huge. Many more individuals can create new value. No doubt a premium will remain for the most skilled engineers, but in many fields, if the computing infrastructure of APIs and basic script tools is strong enough, domain experts from this field will stand the best chance of creating the most value. They will understand the domain AND be able to put their powerful designs into motion in context.

There are currently more than 10,000 open public APIs listed in directories such as ProgrammableWeb and APIs.IO. Many times this number of private APIs associated with particular products or organizations also exist. The number of scripting and simple programming tools that work with these APIs is still in its infancy but increasingly rapidly.

No doubt there are many other important factors in both how impactful new intelligent technologies will be and how widely the benefit will spread. But, with the increasing availability of APIs and the ability to access them simply, there is massive unrecognized potential to democratize powerful programming in a way that has not been possible before.

Each building block, if delivered in the right way is the means for someone to create new value in their domain of expertise.

This puts the ability to create back in the hands of experts, craftspeople, doctors, artists and others.

Just as happened in the 1st machine age, the world will again have it mechanics and car designers — but it will also have its race car drivers, logistics wizards and railroad pioneers.

This is just one of the reasons I’m proud to be at 3scale where we can contribute to the emergence of some of these technologies.

Review: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/review-the-second-machine-age-by-erik-brynjolfsson-and-andrew-mcafee/2014/01/17/ace0611a-718c-11e3-8b3f-b1666705ca3b_story.html