Political statistician Nate Silver officially projected that Republican nominee Donald Trump will win the highly influential swing state of Florida, according to an analysis published Sunday.

Trump has a 52 percent chance of winning Florida, compared to only a 48 percent chance for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the polls-only forecast published on 538. Trump made incredible progress in the state, coming up from a 22 percent chance as of Oct. 15. Clinton has fallen from a 78 percent chance of winning the state since Oct. 15.

Trump has been doing much better in the polls, according to 538’s adjusted poll totals. The last two polls included in the analysis show the two candidates tied in the race, with Trump earning as much as a seven-point lead in a series of polls published last week.

Silver’s adjusted polling average show Trump with 45.7 percent, compared to Clinton’s 45.4 percent. It is still a tight race, but Silver projects voter turnout will make all the difference. The statistician says that among those who vote in the state on Tuesday, 48.1 percent will vote for Trump, and 47.8 percent will choose Clinton.

Clinton earned a 5 percent lead in the ABC daily tracking poll pubished Sunday, and a four-point lead in the NBC daily tracking poll, according to Real Clear Politics.

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