Southampton has struggled to shake the gavel of parity of the Premier League this season. It’s been a constant battle between good and bad streaks for the Saints, leaving the side looking average and unable to win in big moments.

After improving on every previous season’s points total since their Premier League reintroduction in 2012-13, it’s likely that Southampton has found their groove of finishing between sixth and tenth in any given season, fluctuating based on underlying statistics and luck.

But, Southampton finds itself 12th in the table after 16 matches, while Michael Caley suggests they’re playing the third easiest schedule thus far.

Middle table stasis

Southampton’s results have come in bunches, with like results clumping together. They have yet to beat a team that currently sits above them in the table, and have split their draws between teams that sit above and below them. Obviously, to ascend from the middle of the table a team must start beating not only their direct, positional competitors but taking full points from ‘better’ teams.

They struggled early, posting a 1-3-2 record to start the season. When Southampton conceded, it was always more than one goal in that stretch, and leaking goals in bunches is an easy way to breed instability at the back and demoralize a dressing room. Although conceding goals was an issue that needed addressing, it was evident that they had offensive edge and the makings of offensive consistency in Graziano Pelle, Sadio Mane and Dusan Tadic.

Two-way Van Dijk

Southampton needed adjustments to address issues at the back, as it was clear that Maya Yoshida wouldn’t satisfy the demands of an every day, central defender in the Premier League. Yoshida’s size limited his movement, his distribution was average and he came with the consistent expectation of a wayward square or negative pass which usually led to a full scoring chance for the opposition. Enter Virgil van Dijk.

Shoved immediately into a full 90 minute experience at centre back in his first Premier League appearance, Van Dijk made a positive difference immediately.

His size, physicality, comfort in possession and threat of positively progressing through the thirds of the field not only independently improved the team, but relieved Yoshida of his duties at the position which was similarly important.

In the next eight matches Southampton went 4-3-1 with three clean sheets, and averaged 1.75 goals/game—with Van Dyke scoring twice.

Style reliance

Although Southampton is generally thought of as a possession oriented team who enjoys advancing the ball on the floor through the phases of the game, Pelle changes their entire dynamic. Because of his combination of size and agility, he is able to retain the ball in every space of the final third, thus Ronald Koeman predicates most offensive strategies around this.

As Pelle backs defenders down to improve spaces to hold the ball in, his wide midfield teammates can pick up the ball in areas cleared of defenders, which allows them to drive in possession at defensive lines—both Mane and Tadic enjoy such scenarios. His physical attributes also beg for balls whipped into the box for him to latch onto, as he’s one of the best headers of the ball in the Premier League.

Southampton is far too reliant on this and has deemed it the only feasible way to consistently get good quality scoring opportunities.

Southampton ranks second in the league with 59 percent of their shots in the most dangerous area of the pitch stemming from crosses, and last in the league with 1.3 percent of their shots in the same area coming from through balls. This ‘danger zone’ is an area inside the 18-yard box, about the width of the six-yard box extending to the end of the 18-yard box from the goal-line.

As Pelle has gone through scoring streaks, the rest of the team has struggled to consistently score. Koeman has been unable to find a reliable no. 10 to fill the gap behind his centre forward. The lack of dangerous distribution from the attacking central midfield position has forced their structural commitment to width and crossing, and the side has struggled to break defences down any other way.

Drought issues

Since their 4-3-1 run, Southampton has posted a record of 0-3-1, unable to score more than one goal in any game in this grouping. If Pelle isn’t scoring Southampton are in trouble, and he hasn’t scored since November 1. As a manager must do when their striker isn’t scoring, they have to find different outlets. The problem that Koeman has is that the general variations that he usually deploys both cause more glaring, offensive problems.

A slight tactical change is usually Koeman’s first trigger pulled: Mane dropping deeper to pick up the ball, turn and drive at defenders and affect the game in his unorthodox, wily fashion. The issue is that Mane is at his most dangerous when receiving the ball higher up the pitch, isolated with a defender 1v1 or at least coaxing the opposition’s back line out of their shape with his pace. When asked to check deep into the middle third for possession, he has fewer opportunities to immediately ask questions of the opposition’s back line due to the space that then exists.

The second option is to completely replace Pelle with Shane Long, to see if the stout and quick Irish striker can stretch the opposition’s shape with deep, determined runs into the final third. Unfortunately his lack of technical quality and dynamism pins Southampton into stylistic holes that typically do not suit their other goal threats.

Underlying stats decline

After improving in strong performance indicators every season since 2012-13, Southampton has fallen off the self-improvement train. Yes it’s before Christmas, but it’s not trending in their favour.



quantities from Benjamin Pugsley’s great resource

They have declined in scoring percentage, save percentage, shots on target rate and SoT+/-p90 since last season, and are posting some of the lowest totals since 2012-13.

Although projections from the analytics community generally still project them to finish somewhere between sixth and ninth, the more Pelle and Mane continue to struggle the harder their mid-table stasis will become to shake.

Coleman Larned is soccer analytics writer based in Antwerp, Belgium. Follow him on Twitter