

Photo Credit: Bob Frid/USA TODAY Sports

Obviously you don’t need numbers or a graphing calculator to know that Vancouver Canucks centre Bo Horvat, who just celebrated his 20th birthday this weekend, has improved enormously over the course of his rookie season. All you need is two eyes, a commitment to following the Canucks closely, and a basic understanding of hockey.

Quantifying things can be fun though, and graphs can be fun too, especially when they’re telling us good news and confirming what we already know.

Let’s look at how far Horvat has come over the course of his first NHL campaign in graph form, shall we? It’s a tough job, I know, but somebody has to do it.

Let’s start with ice time. Horvat has been Vancouver’s fourth most frequently used regular centre at even-strength this year based on average ice time per game, behind Henrik Sedin, Nick Bonino and Brad Richardson. Of late though with Richardson out of the lineup, Horvat has been playing a third-line role.

Quibbling about his role and arguing over what line should be matched up with which number is a bit besides the point for the purposes of this exercise. What’s more important to note is that the 20-year-old pivot has been given more and more ice time and more and more responsibility as the season has gone along.

Here’s how Horvat’s 5-on-5 ice-time per game has trended throughout this season (20-game rolling average):

(Courtesy: War-on-Ice.com)

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Since late mid-January – perhaps not coincidentally when Richardson first sustained his foot injury – Horvat has seen his 5-on-5 ice time explode. Over the past thirty or so games the Canucks rookie is averaging two full minutes more on a per game basis than he was logging in the first half of the season.

Canucks head coach Willie Desjardins hasn’t only trusted Horvat to play more minutes, he’s also counted on him to start more 5-on-5 shifts in his own end of the rink. Here’s how Horvat’s average of defensive zone starts per game has trended over the course of the year (10-game rolling average):

(Courtesy: War-on-Ice.com)

Horvat is Vancouver’s best centreman by faceoff percentage, and his mature defensive game has been evident since he was 17. Obviously that skillset and Horvat’s performance has allowed him to earn quantifiably more trust from the Canucks coaching staff as the season has gone along.

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Finally, and most importantly, let’s look at Horvat’s underlying results. There was a time in mid-December when Horvat’s form began to flag, and it seemed as if he’d perhaps hit something of a wall. His performance was replacement level.

Since about mid-January though the Canucks’ 2013 first-round pick has found his game. Of late he’s been the sort of player that legitimately help a good team win games in a prescribed bottom-six role, and his on-ice Corsi For differential reflects that (10-game rolling average):

(Courtesy: War-on-Ice.com)

Over the past two months there have been several 10-games stretches in which Horvat – playing a premium position in the toughest league in the world – has been above water by shot attempt differential.

Horvat won’t be getting any serious Calder Memorial Trophy consideration for his work on Vancouver’s fourth-line this year, but the way he’s established himself as an NHL regular and continued to improve throughout the course of the season is impressive and augers very well for the future.





