The goal is to broaden a political map that has remained stubbornly narrow. GOP sets sights on House gains

House Republicans have been destined for modest gains in the midterms despite a favorable political environment. Now, just five weeks until Election Day, the party is raising its ambitions, jumping into Democratic strongholds long thought to be beyond the GOP’s reach.

The goal: Achieve their biggest House majority since Harry Truman’s presidency.


Over the past several weeks, the National Republican Congressional Committee has reserved millions of dollars of TV advertising time in two House districts — one in upstate New York, the other in northern Maine — that broke sharply for Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election but where GOP prospects have been on the rise.

In the coming days, the House GOP campaign arm is polling to gauge whether to invest in three other blue congressional districts that have only recently come onto the national radar, according to two sources familiar with the deliberations. Two of them comprise the eastern, more liberal half of Iowa. The other is in Obama’s native Hawaii.

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The goal is to broaden a political map that, much to the GOP’s frustration, has remained stubbornly narrow. Thanks to a recent round of redistricting that limited the number of seats vulnerable to an opposing party takeover, the House playing field comprises only around three dozen districts. If the election were held today, Republicans, who currently have a 17-seat majority, would gain perhaps six or seven seats — short of the 11-seat benchmark they’ve set.

So the GOP is venturing into places one wouldn’t expect. The stakes are high: Republicans are trying to achieve a governing majority, something that has eluded John Boehner in his tenure as speaker. If they can meet their 11-district goal, Republicans will have 245 seats, their largest delegation since 1949. It would also give the party a buffer heading into a 2016 House election expected to be more generous to Democrats.

Encroaching on the Democratic turf won’t be easy. The upstate New York seat, centered in Syracuse, has been represented the past two years by Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei; Obama carried it by 16 points in 2012.

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The NRCC launched ads there in mid-September, with messaging that’s distinct from what the committee has emphasized in more conservative areas. There are no pointed attacks on the president or his health care law. Some of the spots highlight the biography of the GOP candidate, former organized crime prosecutor John Katko.

Republicans face a similar challenge in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where they started airing ads this week. Obama won the district by 9 points in 2012 and by 10 points four years earlier. But Republicans contend they’re gaining ground. An independent poll released last weekend actually had the GOP candidate in Maine, former state Treasurer Bruce Poliquin, with a 10-point lead over his Democratic opponent.

The NRCC has booked more than $1 million in advertising time in each of the districts.

The Iowa and Hawaii seats are even harder slogs for the GOP, but party officials say there’s cause for encouragement in both cases. Democrats’ struggles in the Iowa Senate and governor’s races, they argue, could trickle down to the congressional races.

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In Hawaii, a new independent poll shows the Republican candidate, popular former Rep. Charles Djou, in a surprisingly close race against Democratic state Rep. Mark Takai.

Democratic groups are bracing for the GOP offensive. House Majority PAC, a super PAC aligned with Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, has reserved advertising time in Syracuse and Maine.

Democrats insist the GOP engagement will backfire.

“D.C. Republicans getting involved in this race will only alienate voters,” said Jennie Johnson, a spokeswoman for Iowa Rep. Dave Loebsack, a four-term Democrat who occupies one of the seats Republicans are thinking about spending money to contest.

Some Republicans are skeptical the party will ultimately pour money into the Iowa or Hawaii races when the polling is complete. The NRCC is facing a serious cash shortfall — through the end of August, it had been outraised by its Democratic counterpart by more than $33 million — that has limited the amount of money it can spend in races.

Republicans have also had the burden of defending seats in expensive media markets, draining their cash reserves. The NRCC has reserved nearly $5 million in commercial air time in New Jersey, southwest Iowa and northern Virginia to defend the seats of three retiring GOP lawmakers.

Asked if the NRCC would spend in the eastern Iowa or Hawaii races, Daniel Scarpinato, a committee spokesman, responded: “We have phenomenal candidates who are carrying their races on their own and putting the Democrats on defense.”

Airing TV commercials, however, isn’t the only way national Republicans can assist their underdog candidates. They’re also dispatching surrogates to help with fundraising and draw media attention, including Boehner.

Aides to the Ohio Republican say they’re leaving Boehner’s schedule for the final week of October open for the speaker to make visits for candidates in races that are breaking late. Last week, the speaker made a visit to Maine, where he raised money for Poliquin.

Other big names are also getting involved. Republican Rod Blum, a software company owner who is running for one of the eastern Iowa seats, on Friday will campaign with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Later in the month Blum will hit the trail with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul.

For Katko, the former prosecutor who is waging his first campaign for political office, the attention has been a little overwhelming.

He’s been getting a hand from the party’s campaign apparatus. As of Tuesday, the NRCC had aired four commercials on his behalf, including one praising him as a family man who “took on violent gangs and crooked cops.” He’ll soon be campaigning with California Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the No. 2 House Republican.

Last week, Katko’s special guest was Boehner, who told an audience at a fundraiser that Katko would be “a great member” and that “this is a race we can win.”

“I remember looking over at my wife,” Katko recalled in an interview, “and saying, ‘This is surreal.’”