Conservatives Maintain Lead

Toronto, June 24th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1539 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, a third (35%) say they would support the Conservatives if an election were held today, unchanged from the beginning of the month (June 1st: 34%).



3 in 10 (29%) say they would support the Liberals, unchanged from the beginning of the month (June 1st: 30%).

About one-sixth say they would support the NDP (13%) or Greens (12%).

About 1 in 20 (5%) say they would support the BQ, while a similar proportion would support the PPC (4%). Few (2%) are supporting another party.

If these results were projected into seats, we expect a Conservative minority government of 150 seats, with the Liberals securing 135.

The NDP would win 32, the BQ would win 16, and the Greens would win 5.

“The Federal horserace is stable right now, with little changing between the beginning and middle of June,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “What might be giving the Liberal campaign team nightmares is the strength of the Greens and NDP; modest movement to those parties from the Liberals could allow the Conservatives to steal seats in close races. The BQ is also a factor, given how important Québec is to the Liberals. Seeing even 1- or 2-point increases for these opponents could really hurt Liberal fortunes.”