Pope Benedict XVI's visit to Britain next year comes after several years of denial and rumours from Britain and the Vatican. It also maintains a punishing tour schedule for the ageing pontiff, who since taking office has visited Israel and the Palestinian territories, Angola, Cameroon, Australia, the US, Turkey, Germany, Brazil, Austria and Germany.

The reason for his visit may have something to do with the imminent beatification of Cardinal Henry Newman, who before the former prime minister Tony Blair turned to Rome was England's most famous convert to Catholicism.

How the pope will be greeted by the British faithful is unclear, as the religious landscape has altered dramatically since the last papal visit, in 1982. Then, John Paul II kissed the tarmac at Gatwick airport, kicking off waves of excitement that lasted for days and drawing crowds of up to 1 million.

This pope, who is altogether more shy and retiring, and less rock'n'roll, has done little to endear himself to minority groups in the UK.

He angered Muslims in 2006 by quoting an unfavourable remark about Islam from a 14th-century Byzantine emperor; he upset Jews worldwide by reversing the excommunication of a Holocaust-denying priest last January; and in March he angered health campaigners and international governments by saying that condoms could aggravate the problem of Aids. And that's to say nothing of the Vatican's attitude towards homosexuals and women.

Leaving aside the controversy and the antipathy he has aroused, Benedict will also have to contend with a much diminished flock. Generous estimates for Mass attendance hover around the 1 million mark, even though the Catholic population is four times that. The secular state of the nation may well alarm him too. Atheists have made great strides in challenging organised religion's claim to be the sole moral compass for contemporary society. And minority religious groups – namely Muslims – have become increasingly bold, confident and visible in their manifestations of faith.

The question of who will foot the bill will also be a cause for concern, as papal visits do not come cheap. His trip to the US cost around $1.2m (£750,000) a day, mostly because of heightened security after the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Then, churchgoers met the cost. But when a government issues the invitation – as seems to be the case here – the UK taxpayer will pick up the tab.