Washington (CNN) It took President Donald Trump just two and a half days to make good on his promise to pull the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership , the behemoth free trade agreement negotiated by his predecessor.

The move was just one in a series of executive actions he took in his first week in office that sent unambiguous signals to his supporters and detractors alike that President Trump was going to make good on candidate Trump's promises

Nearly a year later, the rest of Trump's ambitious trade agenda is still largely unfulfilled . Economists' grimmest predictions -- a trade war with China or Mexico -- haven't come true. Neither have Trump's loftiest promises, such as a complete revitalization of US manufacturing or the rebalancing of the US trade deficit.

But free trade advocates are not yet cheering, and the President's supporters in the manufacturing sector -- while sorely disappointed -- have not yet given up hope.

Key moment

Instead, all eyes are turning to the beginning of Trump's second year in office to gauge the direction of US trade policy under a President who made the issue a core tenet. In the first weeks and months of 2018, Trump faces a consequential series of deadlines on the trade actions he queued up in his first year.

"It's a key moment," said William Reinsch, the Scholl Chair in International Business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "It's clearly a case so far of all bark and no bite. He's made a lot of threats and he hasn't really followed through on any of them. The prevailing expectation is that he's determined to bite somebody."

An investigation into China's alleged intellectual property theft is also nearing its conclusion, an upcoming Mexican election is ramping up the pressure for movement in NAFTA negotiations and the State of the Union address on January 30 may signal where trade falls in Trump's list of priorities.

Trump faces this bottleneck of trade issues after largely under-delivering on the ambitious trade agenda he set for himself during the 2016 campaign.

Then, he regaled crowds with broad promises of revitalizing US manufacturing, returning long-lost manufacturing jobs to the US and aggressively confronting foreign trade abuses by China and other countries. Now, steel manufacturers -- among others -- are facing a surge in foreign imports in anticipation of new trade barriers Trump promised but has yet to deliver.

"When subsidized foreign steel is dumped into our markets, threatening our factories, the politicians have proven, folks, have proven they do nothing," Trump said during a June 2016 speech on US manufacturing. "We are going to put American steel and aluminum back into the backbone of our country."

By April, Trump announced a pair of investigations into steel and aluminum imports -- quickly predicting he would take action by the summer. He hasn't yet.

'Terribly disappointed'

"We're terribly disappointed and hugely frustrated," said Leo Gerard, president of the United Steelworkers union, who was at Trump's side when he announced the moves. "There's been no action that has done anything to protect and defend American jobs. ... In some cases we're worse off now than we were then."

That disappointment also applies to Trump's posture toward China, whose trade abuses the President has continued to call out while taking little substantive action to change things. Trump's national security strategy emphasizes China's economic threat, but his administration has yet to lay out a cohesive strategy to confront it.

Even Trump has conceded that he has not been as tough on China as he promised -- telling The New York Times in a recent interview that he has held back to foster greater cooperation in confronting the North Korean nuclear threat. (The North Korean threat has also affected the extent of the administration's efforts to renegotiate the US-South Korea free trade deal.)

"China's hurting us very badly on trade, but I have been soft on China because the only thing more important to me than trade is war, OK?" Trump said in a late December interview. "If they're helping me with North Korea, I can look at trade a little bit differently, at least for a period of time."

Competing factions

Trump's posture on trade in his first year has also largely been borne out of the internecine conflicts that have defined the administration's trade policy perhaps more than any other issue. While his US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, National Trade Council director Peter Navarro and former chief strategist Steve Bannon fueled Trump's protectionist instincts on trade, that camp of "nationalists" has been countered at every turn by the camp of "globalists," such as National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin.

While "literally 180 degrees away" from Trump's position on trade issues, in the words of one administration official, Cohn and Mnuchin have managed to curb Trump's instincts for erecting trade barriers, particularly on the question of steel and aluminum tariffs.

The most successful case the pair made came during the summer, when Trump was eager to erect tariffs to protect the US steel industry and Cohn and Mnuchin convinced him that such action could threaten support for the tax reform effort they were leading on Capitol Hill on his behalf.

Now, with the passage of tax reform behind them, three sources familiar with the discussions said the two men are making a new case to Trump: that tariffs would undermine the record-high stock market figures.

"That's where Steve would've been useful," an administration official said of Bannon. "Mnuchin and Cohn just kind of take over some of these discussions ... and the President gravitates toward people who make their arguments more aggressively."

First of many trade debates

Photos: Donald Trump's rise President-elect Donald Trump has been in the spotlight for years. From developing real estate and producing and starring in TV shows, he became a celebrity long before winning the White House. Hide Caption 1 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump at age 4. He was born in 1946 to Fred and Mary Trump in New York City. His father was a real estate developer. Hide Caption 2 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump, left, in a family photo. He was the second-youngest of five children. Hide Caption 3 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump, center, stands at attention during his senior year at the New York Military Academy in 1964. Hide Caption 4 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump, center, wears a baseball uniform at the New York Military Academy in 1964. After he graduated from the boarding school, he went to college. He started at Fordham University before transferring and later graduating from the Wharton School, the University of Pennsylvania's business school. Hide Caption 5 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump stands with Alfred Eisenpreis, New York's economic development administrator, in 1976 while they look at a sketch of a new 1,400-room renovation project of the Commodore Hotel. After graduating college in 1968, Trump worked with his father on developments in Queens and Brooklyn before purchasing or building multiple properties in New York and Atlantic City, New Jersey. Those properties included Trump Tower in New York and Trump Plaza and multiple casinos in Atlantic City. Hide Caption 6 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump attends an event to mark the start of construction of the New York Convention Center in 1979. Hide Caption 7 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump wears a hard hat at the Trump Tower construction site in New York in 1980. Hide Caption 8 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump was married to Ivana Zelnicek Trump from 1977 to 1990, when they divorced. They had three children together: Donald Jr., Ivanka and Eric. Hide Caption 9 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise The Trump family, circa 1986. Hide Caption 10 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump uses his personal helicopter to get around New York in 1987. Hide Caption 11 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump stands in the atrium of the Trump Tower. Hide Caption 12 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump attends the opening of his new Atlantic City casino, the Taj Mahal, in 1989. Hide Caption 13 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump signs his second book, "Trump: Surviving at the Top," in 1990. Trump has published at least 16 other books, including "The Art of the Deal" and "The America We Deserve." Hide Caption 14 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump and singer Michael Jackson pose for a photo before traveling to visit Ryan White, a young child with AIDS, in 1990. Hide Caption 15 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump dips his second wife, Marla Maples, after the couple married in a private ceremony in New York in December 1993. The couple divorced in 1999 and had one daughter together, Tiffany. Hide Caption 16 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump putts a golf ball in his New York office in 1998. Hide Caption 17 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise An advertisement for the television show "The Apprentice" hangs at Trump Tower in 2004. The show launched in January of that year. In January 2008, the show returned as "Celebrity Apprentice." Hide Caption 18 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise A 12-inch talking Trump doll is on display at a toy store in New York in September 2004. Hide Caption 19 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump attends a news conference in 2005 that announced the establishment of Trump University. From 2005 until it closed in 2010, Trump University had about 10,000 people sign up for a program that promised success in real estate. Three separate lawsuits -- two class-action suits filed in California and one filed by New York's attorney general -- argued that the program was mired in fraud and deception. Trump's camp rejected the suits' claims as "baseless." And Trump has charged that the New York case against him is politically motivated. Hide Caption 20 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump attends the U.S. Open tennis tournament with his third wife, Melania Knauss-Trump, and their son, Barron, in 2006. Trump and Knauss married in 2005. Hide Caption 21 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump wrestles with "Stone Cold" Steve Austin at WrestleMania in 2007. Trump has close ties with the WWE and its CEO, Vince McMahon. Hide Caption 22 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise For "The Apprentice," Trump was honored with a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame in January 2007. Hide Caption 23 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump appears on the set of "The Celebrity Apprentice" with two of his children -- Donald Jr. and Ivanka -- in 2009. Hide Caption 24 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump poses with Miss Universe contestants in 2011. Trump had been executive producer of the Miss Universe, Miss USA and Miss Teen USA pageants since 1996. Hide Caption 25 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise In 2012, Trump announces his endorsement of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney. Hide Caption 26 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump speaks in Sarasota, Florida, after accepting the Statesman of the Year Award at the Sarasota GOP dinner in August 2012. It was shortly before the Republican National Convention in nearby Tampa. Hide Caption 27 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump appears on stage with singer Nick Jonas and television personality Giuliana Rancic during the 2013 Miss USA pageant. Hide Caption 28 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise In June 2015, during a speech from Trump Tower, Trump announced that he was running for President. He said he would give up "The Apprentice" to run. Hide Caption 29 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump -- flanked by U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio, left, and Ted Cruz -- speaks during a CNN debate in Miami on March 10. Trump dominated the GOP primaries and emerged as the presumptive nominee in May. Hide Caption 30 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise The Trump family poses for a photo in New York in April. Hide Caption 31 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump speaks during a campaign event in Evansville, Indiana, on April 28. After Trump won the Indiana primary, his last two competitors dropped out of the GOP race. Hide Caption 32 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump delivers a speech at the Republican National Convention in July, accepting the party's nomination for President. "I have had a truly great life in business," he said. "But now, my sole and exclusive mission is to go to work for our country -- to go to work for you. It's time to deliver a victory for the American people." Hide Caption 33 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump faces Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the first presidential debate, which took place in Hempstead, New York, in September. Hide Caption 34 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump apologizes in a video, posted to his Twitter account in October, for vulgar and sexually aggressive remarks he made a decade ago regarding women. "I said it, I was wrong and I apologize," Trump said, referring to lewd comments he made during a previously unaired taping of "Access Hollywood." Multiple Republican leaders rescinded their endorsements of Trump after the footage was released. Hide Caption 35 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump walks on stage with his family after he was declared the election winner on November 9. "Ours was not a campaign, but rather, an incredible and great movement," he told his supporters in New York. Hide Caption 36 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump is joined by his family as he is sworn in as President on January 20. Hide Caption 37 of 37

The debate over whether to impose trade barriers on steel and aluminum imports will be just the first of several major debates within the West Wing that will challenge Trump's long-held beliefs on trade and his wariness of unsettling the growing economy, which has been the thick silver lining of his tumultuous presidency.

A political argument also looms. Two sources close to the White House have underlined the importance of Trump delivering on his nationalist trade agenda or risking the loss of his blue-collar support.

Even as he continues to threaten to pull the US out of NAFTA if Mexico and Canada don't agree to more favorable terms, he is facing similar economic arguments about the importance of preserving that free trade deal from the business community, agriculture leaders and congressional Republicans.

But the consensus among both the President's supporters and opponents is that he will not be swayed by those urging restraint for long.

Joshua Meltzer, an international trade expert at the Brookings Institution, predicted that Trump's consistent rhetoric on trade means he's not likely to abandon his views.

"I think we are seeing, certainly, a more benign trade outcome than you might have expected at the beginning of last year. But I think what we have witnessed, though, is a desire on Trump's behalf to do a lot of what he promised," Meltzer said. "There's a lot that people still are increasingly nervous about."