On the side of the main road into Byron Bay stands an old wooden sign inviting visitors to “cheer up, slow down and chill out”.

It’s a small reminder of the town’s proud hippy heritage and laid-back lifestyle. But on a busy weekday morning the hand-painted words take on an ironic edge.

Traffic regularly stretches up to 7km out of town at peak hour, slowing the eclectic cavalcade of local workers, van-packers and day tourists to a frustrating crawl.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Traffic in Ballina. Photograph: Andrea Falletta/The Guardian

The road, designed for much smaller traffic volumes, is often littered with deep potholes. With voters going to the polls in the New South Wales election on 23 March, it is one of the key issues in the seat of Ballina, which covers the Byron and Ballina shires on the far-north coast and where the Greens edged out the National party at the last election by just 3%.

More than two million visitors pour into the Byron shire alone each year, providing a fat slice of revenue for the NSW government through various fees and business levies.

At the same time, a steady tide of sea-changers from Sydney and Melbourne is sweeping in with bulging banking balances and – in many cases – plans to buy a house and then let it out on Airbnb to pay off the mortgage.

The result is a two-pronged attack on the local way of life, with local infrastructure – particularly roads – groaning under the weight of visitors on one hand, and housing affordability plunging to the point where the Byron shire has become the least affordable regional area in the country.

There is a strong perception among voters that their region is contributing hundreds of millions to the NSW economy, but barely seeing a cent in return.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest A patched up street in the Byron Shire. Locals say infrastructure is suffering from the tourist influx. Photograph: Andrea Falletta/The Guardian

“People are definitely pissed off,” says the editor of the Byron Shire Echo, Hans Lovejoy. “They’re pissed off about the state of the roads, about holiday letting, and the cost and standard of living.

“People are pretty tuned in here. There’s a very high level of political awareness that has a long history.”

The state government has done its best in the lead up to the election to make Ballina voters feel that they have not been forgotten.

In the past 18 months a river of funds has flowed into the region, from $21m to build an alternative road into Byron Bay, to giving two old disused hospital sites over to the community.

There has also been a series of policy announcements designed to make locals feel loved, including granting Byron council an exemption from the state’s laissez faire holiday letting laws, and ensuring that the crackdown on drugs at music festivals did not affect Byron’s famous blues festival.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Hans Lovejoy, the editor of the Byron Echo, says people are angry about holiday letting and the cost of living. Photograph: Andrea Falletta/The Guardian

Standing front and centre at these funding and policy announcements has been the Coalition’s candidate for Ballina, the Nationals’ Ben Franklin.

Currently a sitting member of the NSW upper house and the parliamentary secretary for renewable energy and the northern rivers, Franklin has a much higher profile than the relative unknown who stood for the Nationals, and lost, in 2015.

A former state director of the National party, he has positioned himself as the man with the Macquarie Street connections and clout needed to ensure locals are well looked after.

“The Nationals are desperate to win back this seat,” says Lovejoy. “[Nationals MP] Don Page held it for eons so it really stung [when they lost it last election].”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Tamara Smith, the Greens MP for Ballina, is hoping to retain her seat. Photograph: Andrea Falletta/The Guardian

The incumbent MP, the Greens’ Tamara Smith, describes the Nationals’ strategy as “blatant pork barrelling” and Franklin as a “charming imposter”.

“Look, going marginal is the best thing that happened to this area because having been completely ignored for decades we’ve suddenly seen a 32% increase in funding,” Smith says.

“But it is absolutely clear what’s going on and I think people will see right through it.”

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“An upper house member is sent up here straight after they lose the seat in 2015, with a seemingly endless trust fund and a guaranteed spot in the upper house if he loses.”

Franklin, not surprisingly, takes umbrage at suggestions that the government is trying to “buy” back the seat.

“What would they have me do if not advocate for the needs of the community?” he asks.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The Nationals’ Ben Franklin: ‘politics isn’t just about making speeches, it’s about outcomes.’

Photograph: Andrea Falletta/The Guardian

“If they’re trying to suggest that I just sit back and do nothing, well that’s unacceptable. Politics isn’t just about making speeches, it’s about outcomes.”

Franklin believes his advocacy on local issues will see him regain the seat for the Nationals.

“I think all the work I’ve done for this community over the past four years has shown what sort of local member I’ll be,” he says.

“I’ve listened, I’ve advocated and then I’ve delivered outcomes. I’m in no way taking anything for granted but I hope people will hopefully view that positively and make me their local member.”

One issue of interest to Northern Rivers locals where the Nationals may struggle to get traction is climate change.

A recent survey by the Nature Conservation Council found that 87% of people in the region wanted strong action to stave off climate change, and that concerns about deforestation also rated highly.

It’s partly a reflection of the region’s history of environmental activism and partly the long-term demographic shift that has seen the traditionally conservative farming community increasingly make way for a more lifestyle-focused, entrepreneurial class.

“It would be very strange to lose this seat given the level of community concern about those issues,” Smith says of the survey results.

Environmental concerns are also set to be a big issue in the neighbouring seat of Lismore, where the National party holds a narrow 2.9% margin over the Greens.

They are facing an even tougher battle this time, with the retirement of long-standing incumbent MP Thomas George.

His replacement is the relatively unknown local farmer Austin Curtin, the son of a local trauma surgeon.

Taking him on is Greens candidate Sue Higginson, the former chief executive of the NSW Environmental Defenders Office.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Sue Higginson, the Greens candidate for Lismore. Photograph: Andrea Falletta/The Guardian

A local dry rice farmer with a reputation for taking on the big end of town, Higginson believes the major issues in her community are climate change, environmental degradation, social issues, and the Nationals’ “abandonment” of the farming sector.

“I think this election is going to be a referendum on environmental and social justice,” she says. “People are sick of the old politics by the old parties where vested interests and corporate donors hold sway.”

But for Natasha Garred, co-owner of PJ’s Country Fruit and Veg in Lismore, politics takes a back seat to the need for a stronger local economy.

Like many others who live and work in Lismore itself (the seat covers 13,000 sq kms from the Tweed shire in the east to Tenterfield in the west) Garred and her family are still feeling the effects of the floods that devastated the town in May 2017.

“We need someone who’s going to really support small business and encourage people to buy local, not just for businesses like ours but because that’s where a lot of the jobs come from,” she says.

She doesn’t feel that any of the parties truly reflect her interests.

“I feel torn. On one hand I can see that we need to take action on climate change because we’re feeling the effects right now, but on the other hand we need someone who is really going to support local jobs and the economy because a lot of people here are doing it tough.”

The votes of people like Garred could be crucial in the broader context of the election.

Should the Greens prevail in both Ballina and Lismore as some are predicting, Tamara Smith and Sue Higginson could form part of a block of lower house Greens and independents perhaps even holding the balance of power.

It would be an outcome that would thrust the state’s north-east into the centre of power – but whether that would be enough to satisfy local demands for better roads and affordable housing is an open question.