In the heat of the 2016 election campaign, George Papadopoulos was a jet-setting political operative on the rise.

But now, experts say, the 30-year-old is almost certainly being used as a lure to catch bigger fish in the wider inquiry being led by special prosecutor Robert Mueller, which is examining Russian interference in the 2016 election.

Federal investigators on Monday revealed that Papadopoulos was the first person to agree to cooperate with the Mueller inquiry under the terms of a plea agreement.

“He’s bait, absolutely,” said John Lauro, a white-collar criminal defense attorney operating in New York and Florida.



Quick Guide What you need to know about the Trump-Russia inquiry Show How serious are the allegations? The story of Donald Trump and Russia comes down to this: a sitting president or his campaign is suspected of having coordinated with a foreign country to manipulate a US election. The story could not be bigger, and the stakes for Trump – and the country – could not be higher. What are the key questions? Investigators are asking two basic questions: did Trump’s presidential campaign collude at any level with Russian operatives to sway the 2016 US presidential election? And did Trump or others break the law to throw investigators off the trail? What does the country think? While a majority of the American public now believes that Russia tried to disrupt the US election, opinions about Trump campaign involvement tend to split along partisan lines: 73% of Republicans, but only 13% of Democrats, believe Trump did “nothing wrong” in his dealings with Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin. What are the implications for Trump? The affair has the potential to eject Trump from office. Experienced legal observers believe that prosecutors are investigating whether Trump committed an obstruction of justice. Both Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton – the only presidents to face impeachment proceedings in the last century – were accused of obstruction of justice. But Trump’s fate is probably up to the voters. Even if strong evidence of wrongdoing by him or his cohort emerged, a Republican congressional majority would probably block any action to remove him from office. (Such an action would be a historical rarity.) What has happened so far? Former foreign policy adviser George Papadopolous pleaded guilty to perjury over his contacts with Russians linked to the Kremlin, and the president’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort and another aide face charges of money laundering. When will the inquiry come to an end? The investigations have an open timeline.

“They clearly put pressure on him, and I would not be surprised if he then engaged others being investigated and had tape-recorded conversations with them, in person or on the phone.”

On Monday, federal investigators made public the details of Papadopoulos’s October charge.

The indictment revealed Papadopoulos was in Europe during the 2016 campaign, meeting Russian intermediaries and telling Donald Trump’s team that he could arrange a meeting between the future president and Vladimir Putin.

But, the indictment said, by January 2017, just days after the inauguration, Papadopoulos was trying to convince federal agents that his Russian contacts were nobodies and his 2016 dealings with them had had no bearing on the Trump campaign.

Papadopoulos was arrested and has been named by the FBI as a “proactive co-operator”. He pleaded guilty on 5 October to lying to federal investigators but the indictment was sealed and only revealed on Monday, the same day Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort was charged with money laundering and other crimes. Manafort pleaded not guilty in a court appearance on Monday afternoon.

“That move was definitely meant for public consumption. They wanted to send a message to others, who will think, ‘They’re talking to him about me – if I’m going to cooperate this might be the time.’ They will be panicking, or maybe they are already cooperating,” said Barbara McQuade, a former federal prosecutor and now a professor of law at the University of Michigan.

In order to persuade Papadopoulos to cooperate, investigators could have threatened to charge him with obstruction of justice, which can carry a 20-year prison sentence, or other suspected crimes relating to his foreign dealings, she said, instead of charging him merely with lying to investigators.

Papadopoulos’s activities relate directly to the Trump campaign, which make them significant, she said. The much more serious charges laid against Manafort and his associate Rick Gates don’t involve the Trump campaign – but could still be used as leverage in a plea deal to persuade him to cooperate on the wider scope of Mueller’s investigation, she said.

“Donald Trump may know he’s done nothing wrong, in which case he has nothing to worry about. Or he may know that Paul Manafort knows where all the bodies are buried,” said McQuade.

Noah Bookbinder, a former federal prosecutor and now executive director of the pressure group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, said it was routine to begin a large, complex investigation such as Mueller’s by arresting a lower-level player.

He cited Watergate, Iran-Contra, any number of organized crime trials and, during the George W Bush administration, the corruption case involving Washington lobbyist Jack Abramoff and the prosecution of Scooter Libby, aide to former vice-president Dick Cheney, in a CIA leak case.

“That’s exactly what’s unfolding here,” Bookbinder said.

He added that after his arrest Papadopoulos would probably go into what is known among prosecutors as the “proffer” period.

Between the July arrest and his pleading guilty behind closed doors on 5 October, Papadopoulos would have been expected to demonstrate just how much he could help the investigation. Bookbinder said this “proactive cooperation” would affect the leniency of any eventual sentence.

Charging Papadopoulos with lying, and laying harsh charges against Manafort and Gates was an aggressive move by prosecutors who are steeped in complex white-collar crime cases, Bookbinder added.

Alongside Mueller’s signature on Papadopoulos’s offense sheet are the names of prosecutors Jeannie Rhee, a senior adviser to Barack Obama’s attorney general Eric Holder; Andrew Goldstein, who ran the public corruption unit in the southern district of New York for then US attorney Preet Bharara, whom Trump fired; and Aaron Zelinsky, a federal prosecutor in Maryland under then US attorney Rod Rosenstein, who is now deputy attorney general.

“I’m sure they told Papadopoulos, ‘You’re going to go to jail’ – and a lot of people cooperate when they hear that,” said Todd Blanche, an attorney in New York and another former federal prosecutor. “Every successful case of this nature needs a cooperator. If you assume there’s collusion, it’s very difficult to prove that without someone on the inside.”

Lori Lightfoot, president of the Chicago police board, an attorney and also a former federal prosecutor, said she was impressed that there had been no leaks to the press about Papadopoulos’s arrest and guilty plea, showing that Mueller’s team was “playing it straight”.

Why would someone like Papadopoulos, an ambitious member of the Trump election campaign’s advisory team, whom the future president once called “an excellent guy” allow himself to get caught lying and then flip so easily?

“People who are in politics are used to spinning the message and not being fulsome. But when the FBI comes knocking, you have to do a 180 and either say nothing except ‘talk to my lawyer’ or tell the truth,” said Lightfoot. “Don’t lie – you’ll be out of your depth.”