ALAMEDA — Most people, including Jack Del Rio, figure it will take at least 10 wins to reach the playoffs in the AFC.

That means the Raiders, 4-5 at the bye, need to go 6-1 against a schedule that offers little help.

Let’s take a closer look.

WEEK 11: vs. New England in Mexico City

Best case: Tom Brady throws for fewer than 300 yards, which he has done only three times this season, and the Raiders intercept a pass, which they haven’t done once this season. Because of New England’s awful defense, that would open the door for Derek Carr to pull off the upset in a shootout.

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Raiders report card: Mixed grades after much-needed win at Miami Worst case: If Jay Cutler can throw for more than 300 yards and three touchdowns on two broken ribs, as he did against the Raiders last Sunday, Brady can do that with his eyes closed. With future Hall of Famer Rob Gronkowski creating mismatches and the blazing speed of Brandin Cooks in the slot and on the outside, New England could bury the Raiders while Carr turns in another dud.

Most likely: New England is the only team in the NFL averaging over 400 yards per game on offense and the Raiders have the 26th-ranked defense. Carr and Brady were supposed to share some MVP spotlight this year, but that’s hardly been the case. The Patriots could very well score in the high 30s while Carr is unable to match No. 12’s prowess. Don’t expect the Raiders’ offense to completely lay flat – New England is also the only team allowing over 400 yards per game on defense – but in a Brady vs. Carr duel the elder has the edge.

WEEK 12: vs. Denver

Best case: The Denver QBs keep throwing interceptions; they’ve thrown five the last two games. The Raiders’ defense plays as well as it did in a 16-10 loss at Denver in Week 4. And Carr takes advantage of a defense that just let up 51 points in Philadelphia.

Worst case: Even the Denver QBs can’t throw the Raiders an interception. The Broncos shut down Oakland’s receivers as they did for the majority of Week 4 and stifle a mediocre Raiders’ run game yet again.

Most likely: If you’re going to have one thing in the NFL, it has to be a quarterback. A good one. The Raiders have one that has shown flashes of playing among the best in the league. The Broncos have nothing close. It would be harder for Denver to completely reverse course from the performances it has turned in recently than Carr to absolutely flop and Oakland’s defense to make Trevor Siemian or Brock Osweiler look like a Pro Bowler.

WEEK 13: vs. New York Giants

Best case: Oakland trumps the NFL’s most disappointing team and one in complete disarray right now. The struggling Raider corners get a break with New York’s top two receivers out for the year, and Obi Melifonwu is up to speed enough to guard dynamic rookie tight end Evan Engram. Eli Manning might not even be starting by Week 13, so the Raiders could face Cal product Davis Webb. The Giants are already done, and the Raiders trounce a team building for the future.

Worst case: The Giants get a good game from Manning, or Webb, against the hapless Oakland secondary. One of the NFL’s best defenses from a year ago finds the urge to actually try, and Carr turns in his most underwhelming performance of the season.

Most likely: It should be very hard for the Raiders to lose this game. The Giants are 1-7, and may have already conceded by the time they visit Oakland. This would be a perfect chance for the Raiders to add an easy win if the AFC race is still as tight as it is now.

WEEK 14: at Kansas City

Best case: Carr goes OFF again against the Chiefs, as he did in the 31-30 victory Oct. 19, a.k.a The Game with Four Last Plays. The Raiders limit Kareem Hunt to under 100 yards again and somehow contain Tyreek Hill. Alex Smith plays as he has most of his career until this season.

Worst case: The Chiefs play like they did on offense the first matchup, but Carr can’t equal Smith on the other end. The Raiders defense is leaky again, out-matched by Hunt, Hill and tight end Travis Kelce. There’s no Amari Cooper to catch 11 balls for 210 yards and two touchdowns this time, and Oakland loses a key division game.

Most likely: The Chiefs are slipping, down to 6-3 after starting 5-0. The Raiders are within two games of the division lead right now, and gaining a game on Kansas City before this Dec. 10 matchup could make things very interesting. It’s hard to see the Chiefs losing to Oakland twice in one year, especially this time at home, but don’t expect it to be a blowout.

WEEK 15: vs. Dallas

Best case: Ezekiel Elliott is suspended for this game and the Raiders have to deal with a combination of Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden instead of arguably the NFL’s best running back. And let’s also throw in a subpar game from Dak Prescott.

Worst case: Elliott is still playing, and he tears through the Raiders’ front the way LeSean McCoy did in Buffalo. Prescott continues his impressive Year 2 after winning Rookie of the Year in 2016, and Marshawn Lynch and Co. can’t get anything going to open up the offense against a (right now) top-12 run defense.

Most likely: It really depends on Elliott’s case. The Raiders have been OK against the run, but Elliott is special.

WEEK 16: at Philadelphia

Best case: The Eagles have cooled off from their 8-1 start. They’re the best team in the NFL right now. They don’t have any blatant weaknesses through nine weeks. Maybe they already have clinched a first-round bye in the playoffs and they rest some starters — a Christmas gift for the Raiders.

Worst case: Carson Wentz is still mowing through the NFL and the Eagles are charging ahead despite already locking up a playoff berth. The Raiders are out of playoff contention and Philadelphia takes full advantage in a blowout.

Most likely: The Eagles’ offense has all the ingredients to destroy this Oakland secondary, especially if the Raiders are already out of the playoff race. That’s quite possible come Week 16, so Philadelphia has a clear advantage.

WEEK 17: at Los Angeles Chargers

Best case: The Raiders need a win to get in. Desperation mode is activated, and Philip Rivers plays like the interception-prone quarterback he’s been while Carr locks up a postseason spot with the MVP-caliber performance some expected of him throughout the year.

Worst case: The Raiders are already out and this game is meaningless. Oakland ends its season, and the year 2017, in disappointing fashion with another loss to the Chargers.

Most likely: The Raiders are out of it and they end the season as one of the biggest disappointments in the league.

So where do they end up?

BEST-CASE RECORD: 10-6

Oakland only loses one more game – let’s say to either New England, Kansas City or Philadelphia — and pulls upsets against the other two plus Dallas.

WORST-CASE RECORD: 5-11

The Raiders can’t possibly lose to the Giants, but they could lose to every other team that remains on the schedule. They’ve already lost to the Broncos and the Chargers, who rank ahead of only the Giants on the scale of opponents.

MOST LIKELY RECORD: 8-8

The Broncos are a mess, the Giants are worse and the Raiders aren’t going to lose twice to the Chargers. But against New England, Dallas, Kansas City and Philly, it’s hard to see more than one upset. Even two probably doesn’t get them in the playoffs. Do I hear three?