There is at least one bull market underway: in recession fears.

It’s apparent in how ordinary Americans are thinking about the economy. In August, consumer sentiment suffered its biggest drop since 2012, and Google searches for the term “recession” surged to their highest levels in more than a decade.

There are also signs that business activity is slackening. The factory sector is slowing worldwide, and according to a closely watched survey released Tuesday, American manufacturing began contracting in August for the first time since 2016.

So how worried should Americans really be? The answer isn’t as simple as either “run for the hills” or “everything is fine.”

Rather, based on financial market moves and the economic data available so far, a period of sluggish growth looks more likely than an outright recession.