No matter how long he stays in office, Tony Abbott is likely to be Australia's last monarchist prime minister. Here's why, writes Tim Mayfield.

Sometimes, good policy is good politics, and that's why an Australian republic isn't as far away as some people might think.

While the cynics (including those documented by Mike Steketee) can fairly point out that Bill Shorten's renewed commitment to the republican cause coincides with the current scrutiny of his time as AWU National Secretary, the evidence is that the Opposition Leader is deadly serious about taking on this elusive reform.

And why wouldn't he be? The public's reaction to Tony Abbott's knighting of Prince Philip was a reminder of how deeply republican sentiment runs in this country when the right (or wrong!) notes are struck.

Shorten is readying himself to follow the example set by Australia's most ardently republican prime minister, Paul Keating, who demonstrated the importance of balancing the transactional with the transformational in politics.

Just as we remember Kevin Rudd's apology to the Stolen Generation and John Howard's stand on gun control, a first-term Shorten Government could come to be remembered for finally ushering in an Australian head of state.

Of course, if betting markets are anything to go by, the result of the 2016 federal election is up for grabs. But this should not be seen as a great obstacle - no matter how long he stays in office, Abbott is likely to be Australia's last monarchist PM. For this reason we can be pretty sure that elusive Holy Grail of constitutional reform - bipartisanship - looms on the horizon.

But as history has demonstrated over and again, bipartisanship alone is not enough to convince Australians of the merit of constitutional change. We need to be confident beyond a shadow of a doubt that what we are voting for is both necessary and right.

That is why it is crucial that the people are given a direct say over how an Australian head of state would be elected. And not just at the ballot box but in the deliberative process that will precede any vote. This will be all the more necessary given that confidence in our political system and our politicians is at such a historically low ebb.

The most important job for republicans, therefore, is not to determine whether an Australian head of state is elected by a popular vote or by a bipartisan consensus of the Federal Parliament. Rather, it is to ensure that the fundamental injustice of hereditary rule is addressed at all.

That means putting aside, for the time being, strongly held views on the republican model and working to put an Australian republic back at the top of the national agenda where it belongs.

If proponents can manage that, there is every reason to believe that the campaign will be run and won. Remember, when the minds of Australians were last focused on this issue in 1999, overall support for an Australian republic reached its apex.

While it is true that interest has waned somewhat in the intervening years, there is every reason to expect that the same public feeling that was manifest over the reintroduction of knights and dames will translate into votes for an Australian head of state.

In this context, the current popularity of the Royal family shouldn't be viewed as an obstacle. There is nothing incongruous about admiring Wills and Kate and supporting the idea that our sovereignty should lie with the Australian people rather than a foreign Crown.

Likewise, the notion that we should wait for the passing of the Queen is arbitrary. The Queen herself acknowledged as much when she commented at the conclusion of the previous republican referendum that:

I have always made it clear that the future of the monarchy in Australia is an issue for the Australian people and them alone to decide, by democratic and constitutional means.

The Australian Republican Movement's goal is to have a plebiscite on the question of an Australian republic by 2020. This is eminently achievable but only if we get to work building momentum now.

In doing so, we might just prove to ourselves that our system of government is equipped to deal with the challenges of the 21st century after all.

Cynicism is easy; it's optimism that takes guts.

Tim Mayfield is the national director of the Australian Republican Movement. He tweets at @tvmayfield.