If the phone polls have got this right Dave’s more in tune with Tory voters than party members or many MPs

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ComRes has them splitting 52%-39% for IN

It is a fact that all but one of the telephone polls carried out on the referendum since the General Election has shown more Conservative voters wanting to remain than leave.

The exception was last week’s ComRes poll for ITV that had the IN lead down from 18% to 8%. This morning, as covered in the last thread, Â the Mail is reporting a shift back to IN.

The detailed data is now available and one key set of figures is how Conservative voters say they will vote on June 23rd. This shows a break of 52% for REMAIN Â and 39% for LEAVE.

This is the same pattern seen in the weekend Survation poll, Ipsos-MORI, and every other ComRes referendum poll since GE2015.

If the phone pollster view of the referendum is correct then those who vote for the party have a different position than not just the many CON MPs now declaring for REMAIN but the party membership. This is from the latest survey of Conservative members by CONHome.

This picture of the party activists having a different view on a key issue is very similar to what is happening within LAB on Trident and other issues. The big difference is that while Corbyn is in tune with party members Cameron is more in tune with party voters.

It is true, as had been widely covered, that online polls have had very different view of the referendum outcome than the phone polls.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB



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