Labor and the LNP feel the pressure as they use Longman as a testing ground for the next federal election campaign

'It's bad here': how One Nation is spooking major parties in Longman

Longman is tired.

Or, more specifically, Caboolture – just too far from Brisbane, and not close enough to the next population hotspot, the Sunshine Coast – is tired.

The area has always been working class, with its residents earning their living in fields and industrial sheds. They went to the mines, when the resources boom was at its peak, travelled north and west, to use their skills. Since the slowdown, they have returned to a region still struggling to find its feet.

Economic growth in Queensland runs just over 6% but you would be hard-pressed to find many voters in Longman, particularly Caboolture and its neighbour Morayfield, who would feel like they are sharing in the prosperity. “It’s all take, take, take, isn’t it?” Margery O’Brien says rhetorically.

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The 68-year-old says she has lived in the area most of her life, and “it’s all been hot air and broken promises”. She could not name the federal MP who had been her local member since the 2016 election, nor when the looming byelection would be held.

But she could tell you One Nation was back and will fight hard. Super Saturday byelection on 28 July is one of five being contested, in this case because Labor’s Susan Lamb was ruled ineligible in the dual-citizenship saga.

“I like Pauline. I always have. I think she wants to do good things and I think they should let her. We’d see things change then, that’s for sure.”



It’s this attitude that has the major parties spooked. While One Nation’s vote is seemingly dropping across the nation, it has taken root in its home state, averaging about 20% in seats where it ran candidates at last year’s state election.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Pauline Hanson chats to a supporter as she campaigns with One Nation’s candidate for Longman, Matthew Stephen, in Caboolture. Photograph: Dan Peled/AAP

One Nation’s pitch to send the major parties a message is resonating in an electorate where the median weekly wage is about $300 less than the rest of the nation, where unemployment is creeping towards 9%, and the community is in the grips of an ice epidemic that shows no signs of abating.

“I saw there is an election on or something, because One Nation had signs up saying they’ll do something about ice,” another local, Steve Johnston says. “I don’t know when the election is, but I’ll vote for anyone who can fix that.

“It’s bad here. Real bad. Got a lot of young-un’s in its grip.”

People in Longman are focused on local conditions. The national campaign, which configures around the respective tax offerings of the major parties, has not resonated with the general populace, who care more about health, employment, education and hard infrastructure, like roads.

If class warfare doesn’t work in Longman, it’s not going to work anywhere Labor strategist

Both side of politics are road-testing their campaigns for the federal election inside the boundaries of the electorate.

While the Coalition’s business tax cuts don’t seem to have penetrated too deeply into voters’ minds, the decision by the Fair Work Commission to cut penalty rates has. Labor responded immediately by ramping up its message on cuts to penalty rates versus a potential tax cut for “the big banks”.

“If class warfare doesn’t work in Longman, it’s not going to work anywhere,” one Labor strategist told Guardian Australia. “Longman is working class. Proper working class. And what it cares about is what half of Australia, those outer urban and regional seats, care about.

“So if our message doesn’t resonate here, it’s not going to resonate anywhere.”

Win Longman, the thinking goes within the Labor campaign, and then you have the tools to win the nearby Liberal National party electorates of Petrie, held by Luke Howarth, and more crucially, Dickson – the seat held by the home affairs minister, Peter Dutton.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Peter Dutton (right) and Liberal National party candidate for Longman, Trevor Ruthenberg, in Brisbane on Friday. Photograph: Bradley Kanaris/AAP

‘Order the Lamb and get the Bill’

Internal polling has the seat on 50-50. The Labor incumbent Susan Lamb was tipped over the line by One Nation preferences at the last election. The previous member, the LNP’s Wyatt Roy, blamed those preferences, for his loss.

But most on the campaign put Roy’s defeat at the last federal election down to a union campaign which quite simply let a photo do the talking – Roy and Malcolm Turnbull at a GQ awards night party, an image they placed on a truck and drove around a community that prefers it’s conservatives red – be it headed, or speedo-clad.

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Turnbull is still not overly popular here. But then again, neither is Bill Shorten.

“Can’t stand the bloke,” says another local, Steve Bell. “Mind you, I can’t stand the other bloke either.”

A Labor campaigner says: “What is happening in Longman is the pretty close to what is happening everywhere else at the moment – people don’t like Bill, but Labor is probably ahead.

“What does that mean for votes? I guess we’ll see. It’s what everyone is watching, on both sides.”

Both leaders, and key members of their frontbench, have made several visits to Longman, but have so far avoided major public spaces, or walk throughs.

Pauline Hanson has not. During her public appearances, she is all but mobbed by supporters, with local reporters still shaking their head at a recent shopping centre visit where an entire cafe of people moved as one to greet her.

The One Nation how-to-vote card has put the LNP at seven out of the field of 11, while Labor sits at 10 only pipped for last place by the Greens candidate.

Jim Saleam, a serial New South Wales candidate, described by an LNP strategist as “a white supremacist” – was placed at number eight.

If [the LNP] prove successful in Longman, I think it is going to mean Labor has to rethink its whole election strategy LNP strategist

But Labor isn’t too worried about One Nation’s preference decisions. At the 2017 state election, One Nation directed preferences away from Labor’s Steven Miles in the Murrumba electorate, which straddles parts of Longman, and Labor still received 40% of One Nation’s preference flow, comfortably winning the seat.

“We just don’t think One Nation voters follow how-to-vote cards, they vote how they want,” another Labor campaign strategist said.

“And to be honest, a lot of One Nation voters are our voters.

“It doesn’t feel like a Liberal seat, does it? Which is why we think those who vote One Nation, and personally, I think their vote is overstated, but those who vote for Hanson, will more likely than not flow to us.”

But Labor is still running its campaign on a “vote for One Nation is a vote for the LNP”, while One Nation has returned fire against “shifty Shorten”.

The LNP’s strongest line has been “order the Lamb and get the Bill”, as well as continuing to fight back against Labor’s “health funding cuts” line.

The fight for trust

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Bill Shorten (left) with Susan Lamb during a visit to Caboolture hospital. Photograph: Dan Peled/AAP

Health, with Longman’s aging population, is a crucial issue.

Labor has based much of its campaign on the threat of an almost $3m cut to the Caboolture hospital, already a touchy subject for locals, who still remember when the Labor state government moved to shut down its emergency department 12 years ago.

Labor has based its figure on a cut to promised funding. The government has pushed back by pointing to record funding.

They are both right. Health funding is always increasing, as the population does. But the funding increase was less than anticipated. It’s a grey zone both sides are exploiting – Labor as evidence the Coalition can’t be trusted on health, the Coalition as evidence Labor can’t be trusted.



“If we prove successful here, I think it is going to mean Labor has to rethink its whole election strategy, that it won’t just be able to create a ‘Mediscare 2.0’,” a LNP campaign strategist said.

The tax cut message has dropped off, as the LNP pushes its promise to address electricity prices. It has found that to be one of its campaign strengths, and the release of the ACCC report, a roadmap to lower power prices, earlier this week gave the LNP campaign a boost.

“It feels like the federal government and the prime minister have really turned the corner, and we just need to seize that momentum,” a LNP campaigner said.

Six pre-poll booths have been opened, with more than a third of the 112,000-strong electorate predicted to tramp through one before the official polling day.

But a straw poll at a local Caboolture shopping centre of about 100 people found the overwhelming majority were unaware a byelection was being held. Of the 20% or so who did, no one could name either major party’s candidate.

“I think Pauline Hanson is running though, I’ve seen her face around,” one shopper said.

Both campaigns continue to tweak their messages in an attempt to capture a tired populace’s attention, but acknowledge it’s an uphill battle.

Labor appears to feel the pressure more acutely, as it remains convinced a general election is just around the corner.

The Coalition remains just as convinced Turnbull will stay true to his word not to hold a federal election until 2019.

In either case, the battle for Longman is shaping as the most important of the Super Saturday byelections, potentially shaping the next election.

“We always say the only poll which matters is election day,” a Labor campaigner said. “Well, this one matters probably more than most.”