Let’s be honest, the Dallas Cowboys (6-4) aren’t expected to travel to Foxboro and beat the New England Patriots (9-1) on Sunday.

The Patriots have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, having won the past 20 games at Gillette Stadium. And they have the greatest head coach and quarterback of all time in Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.

The Patriots rank first in total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), 12th in offensive DVOA, first in defensive DVOA and 10th in special teams DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. Purely based on DVOA, the Patriots have the advantage everywhere except when their defense is on the field against the Cowboys’ offense — each unit ranks first in DVOA, making that a push.

Although the Patriots have the advantage almost everywhere in this game on paper, that doesn’t mean the Cowboys can’t do the unthinkable and escape with a victory.

The Patriots may have lost once this season, but the unfortunate reality for the Cowboys is that they can’t learn much from that loss from a schematic perspective because the Baltimore Ravens are a completely different team than the Cowboys — on offense and defense. The Ravens possess the most unique offense in the NFL and their defense is extremely complex when compared with Dallas.

The Cowboys will need to forge their own path to victory.

For that to happen, they have to put together one of the best performances of the season. Without further ado, let’s dive into a few of the Cowboys’ keys to victory against the defending Super Bowl champions:

Get off to a fast start/play with a lead

The worst-case scenario for the Cowboys this week would be if they get off to a slow start and allow the Patriots to grab an early lead, enabling Brady and the Patriots’ offense to control the pace of the game.

One of the biggest reasons the Patriots have the best record in football is because of their ability to jump out to a lead and play with it. They have posted the best first-quarter scoring differential in the NFL, averaging 8.7 points on offense while giving up just 2.0 points on defense in the initial stanza, meaning New England ends the first quarter with a six-point lead on average.

If the Patriots are the best team in the NFL in the first quarter, the Cowboys are one of the worst. Dallas averages a meager 4.0 points while giving up 6.2 points in the first quarter, meaning the Cowboys are losing by two points heading into the second quarter on average.

If the Cowboys are able to flip the script and get off to a fast start against the Patriots, it will make everything else easier for them the rest of the game. It’s no coincidence that when the Cowboys win, they tend to win big — all of their wins except one have been by double digits. Dallas is built to play with a lead.

The Cowboys’ biggest weakness right now is defending the run, and the great byproduct of playing with a lead is that it naturally nullifies the opposing team’s run game, forcing them to throw more to close the gap.

In fact, the Patriots throw more often when losing than most teams, throwing the ball 74.14% of the time when down by nine-plus points — the seventh-highest rate in the NFL, according to The Quant Edge.

This means that if the Cowboys are able to get an early lead, their venomous pass rush (more on that later) will be able to pin its ears back and rush the passer without much of a run threat.

It’s easier said than done, but the Cowboys can’t afford to have another slow start against the Patriots if they hope to win.

Pressure Brady

The first key to victory dovetails nicely into the second — playing with a lead will make it easier for the Cowboys’ defense to get after Brady.

The future Hall of Famer is a totally different quarterback when kept clean compared to when under pressure.

Though much has been made of Brady’s struggles this season, he’s still one of the best QBs in the league when kept clean, posting 2,307 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, two interceptions, an 80.1% adjusted completion rate (no drops or throwaways) and a 105.8 passer rating, according to Pro Football Focus.

Under pressure is when Brady’s decline is most apparent, posting just four touchdowns, three interceptions, a 56.8% adjusted completion rate and a 48.5 passer rating, according to PFF. Moreover, Brady ranks 27th (among 29 QBs who have played a least 50% of their team’s offensive snaps) in passer rating and 26th in adjusted completion percentage when under pressure, according to PFF.

If a defense gives Brady time to sit in the pocket and survey the coverage, he will slice and dice it up all game long.

But when a defense makes him uncomfortable in the pocket, making him move off his spot and make plays off of different throwing platforms, he becomes mortal.

Seeing as how the Cowboys don’t blitz very often, their front four have to win their matchups up front and attack the pocket.

Coached by the best offensive line coach in all of football — Dante Scarnecchia — the Patriots will be ready for the myriad stunts, twists and defensive line games the Cowboys run. Also, the Patriots receive a boost this week as starting left tackle Isaiah Wynn returns from injured reserve.

Scarnecchia, much like Belichick, is great at taking out the opposing team’s best pass rusher — watch how New England slowed Aaron Donald down in last season’s Super Bowl — but the Cowboys possess four effective and impactful pass rushers in DeMarcus Lawrence, Robert Quinn, Maliek Collins and Michael Bennett.

The Patriots can’t double everybody, so it’s incredibly important that Dallas’ best pass rushers are able to consistently win and apply pressure on Brady when provided a one-on-one matchup.

While the Cowboys’ defense has had trouble stopping a lot of offenses this year, if it is able to consistently pressure Brady with the front four, then it should have a real chance to stymie the Patriots.

Big performances from complementary players

The Patriots are the most modular team in the league, capable of morphing their personnel and scheme to attack the weaknesses of the opponent while taking away its strengths. One thing that is certain on an almost weekly basis is that Belichick and the Patriots are going to take away, or limit, the opposing team’s best weapons on offense.

Whether that means bracketing Amari Cooper in coverage while leaving Stephon Gilmore — who arguably is the NFL’s best cornerback — one-on-one against Michael Gallup or vice versa, you can bet Belichick is going to have a good plan on how to slow down Dak Prescott’s primary weapons.

This means players such as Randall Cobb, Tavon Austin, Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin need to step up and take advantage of the matchups presented to them.

Another dime from Prescott to hit Cobb in a tight window. Also mighty impressive that Cobb hung on after nearly being KOed the safety. #Cowboys pic.twitter.com/YQ77I253vl — John Owning (@JohnOwning) November 20, 2019

Outside of his propensity to drop one or two passes per game, Cobb has been an outstanding addition to the offense. His ability to stretch the field and make plays after the catch have been exceedingly beneficial this season. The Patriots use a variety of players in the slot depending on matchup, but Cobb should see most of his time against Jonathan Jones, who has been impressive but not perfect this year in terms of his coverage.

While it’s hard to trust him on a play-by-play basis, Jarwin’s speed is an important advantage against New England’s linebackers. The linebackers are good, but not exceedingly fast, so Jarwin could create some positive play opportunities in the passing game if utilized correctly.

1. Give me more touch passes to Tony Pollard to take advantage of even numbers to the field.



2. What on Earth is Jarrad Davis doing? pic.twitter.com/70RqZK0OmQ — John Owning (@JohnOwning) November 20, 2019

In addition, this may be a good week to use a lot of two-running back sets with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard together on the field.

In a 2018 interview with Deadspin, former Patriots assistant coach Pepper Johnson, who spent most of his 30-plus years in the NFL as a player and coach under the tutelage of Belichick, revealed that the Patriots head coach “never liked playing against two skillful running backs. It’s a problem because he can’t really cover them with his different combination of coverages with the secondary. The linebackers have to get them.”

Stacked alignment causes miscommunication in DET's coverage and Pollard takes full advantage, showing his elusiveness is space and burst to beat the defender to the pylon. pic.twitter.com/eqaldeQsxB — John Owning (@JohnOwning) November 20, 2019

If the Cowboys can figure out ways to isolate the New England LBs — especially Elandon Roberts — in coverage against Pollard and Elliott, they can potentially create some explosive plays to move the ball on this stingy defense.

No turnovers

This one essentially explains its self, so we aren’t going to spend a ton of time on it. The Patriots are one of the best defenses in the NFL at forcing turnovers and, oftentimes, they turn those turnovers into points, as the Patriots rank first in defensive touchdowns (six).

Altogether, the Patriots have hauled in 19 interceptions while also recovering nine forced fumbles, as the team ranks first in turnover differential by a mile.

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense haven’t turned the ball over a ton this season, just 13 turnovers so far, but it’s even more important that they play clean football this week. Turning the ball over is an easy way to gift the Patriots a lead, which, as discussed above, is the exact opposite of what the Cowboys need.

Survive on special teams

Newsflash: The Cowboys’ special teams have been one of the worst in the NFL. They rank toward the bottom statistically in most categories while ranking 25th in special teams DVOA, per Football Outsiders.

The name of the game for the Cowboys on special teams is to survive. The Cowboys haven’t earned the right to play the Patriots’ special teams straight up; therefore, they would be wise to minimize the effects of either team’s special teams this week.

What does that entail?

Well, it means eliminating any opportunity for the Patriots’ punt and kick return units to return the ball. This means that Brett Maher needs to do his best to put the ball deep into the red zone on kickoffs while Chris Jones plays the sidelines with his punts.

Moreover, while the Cowboys shouldn’t look a gift horse in the mouth and ignore giant return lanes, as Tavon Austin infamously was instructed to do against the Minnesota Vikings, fair catches are not necessarily a bad thing. The Patriots have one of the best punt coverage units in the NFL, per Football Outsiders, as they have forced two turnovers while allowing just 5.44 yards per punt. On top of that, New England’s punt return unit has blocked two punts this season.

If the Cowboys are able to limit New England’s special teams’ impact to just field goals, it will enable them to have a much better shot at winning this game.

Enjoy this post? More film studies:

— How Robert Quinn has become the Cowboys’ most productive pass rusher

— 3 things we learned from Cowboys-Lions, including how Dak put together another MVP effort

— Why the Cowboys should be encouraged by Travis Frederick’s play this season