Would NFL playoff expansion suck, or be great? by Dan Salem

The Philadelphia Eagles pick 20th in the 2015 NFL Draft… For now.

While I think anything’s possible on Draft Day and while Chip Kelly has done nothing to make me think it’s safe to assume anything about what this team might do…

… For the sake of this article I am going to operate under the assumption that the Eagles stay at 20.

There are any number of ways to evaluate a 20th pick:

Who’s likely to go in the first 19?

What kinds of players have been taken at 20?

How do the players available match up with what your team needs and scheme?

And many others, I’m sure.

But let’s focus on those.

Who is likely to be off the board when the Eagles pick if the Eagles do pick at 20?

Jameis Winston is gone. Top-two wideouts, Amari Cooper and Kevin White? Gone. Defensive lineman Leonard Williams is gone. As are edge rushers Vic Beasley and Dante Fowler. Oh, and Shane Ray, too. Randy Gregory has has some marijuana issues, but he doesn’t get to #20. Neither does top offensive lineman Brandon Scherff. And, for argument’s sake… let’s say Marcus Mariota is gone, too. It’s a quarterback hungry league.

That’s a list of ten. The eleventh through nineteenth guys that will absolutely not be there when the Eagles pick is a tougher group to pin down.

Top corner Trae Waynes? He won’t be there.

Nov 15, 2014; Fayetteville, AR, USA; LSU Tigers cornerback Jalen Collins (32) reacts before kickoff Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Neither will third-best receiver DaVante Parker or defensive tackle Danny Shelton.

Now we’re getting into the range of guys that I, personally, don’t believe will be there for the Eagles at #20.

I don’t think Andrus Peat or Landon Collins are there. Not Alvin Dupree. Not tackle La’el Collins.

Arik Armstead and the draft’s top running back, Todd Gurley, round out the list of players the Eagles cannot take with the 20th pick.

Anyone else is fair game:

Receivers like Jaelen Strong, Dorial Green-Beckham, Nelson Agholor, and Breshad Perriman.

Defensive backs like Marcus Peters, Kevin Johnson, Jalen Collins, Byron Jones, and Eric Rowe.

Offensive linemen like Ereck Flowers, Cameron Erving, T.J. Clemmings, and Jake Fisher.

Guys like Shaq Thompson. Brett Hundley. Malcolm Brown.

This is far from a perfect science, but the list of players likely to be around at pick 20 is a long one. And not one that makes whom to pick an easy decision.

Who’s been taken with the 20th pick in NFL draft’s past?

Last year the Saints took Brandin Cooks. He was on his way to a good (but not better than other top receivers in 2014) rookie year before a thumb injury sidelined him.

The five before that were Kyle Long, Kendall Wright, Adrian Clayborn, Kareem Jackson, and Brandon Pettigrew.

Long looks like a stud offensive lineman for the Bears. The rest have been some degree of disappointing. Particularly considering that all of them were surrounded by better players taken in the picks just before or just after #20.

Dec 27, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; USC Trojans wide receiver Nelson Agholor (15) catches a pass before the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the 2014 Holiday Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Guys like Jeremy Maclin (#19 the year Pettigrew went #20,) Alex Mack (#21 that year) and Clay Matthews (#26).

Guys like Maurkice Pouncey, Demaryius Thomas, and Dez Bryant, who went #18, #22, and #24 when decent-but-not-great corner, Kareem Jackson went #20.

Aqib Talib was picked #20 in 2008. Hit.

Aaron Ross in 2007. Miss.

Tamba Hali in 2006. Hit!

2005? Marcus Spears. Somewhere in between?

Verdict: The 20th pick is, as you’d expect, something of a crapshoot. There’s no reason you can’t add a perennial Pro-Bowler. And no guarantee you’re adding anything to make your team better.

It’s not just about who’s left. And it can’t be about what the player will one day become… because no one knows. In most any draft, in fact, the legacy of the players taken doesn’t exist until they’re paired with a team.

Would Troy Aikman have been Troy Aikman were it not for that line and for Michael Irvin and for Emmitt Smith?

Could Russell Wilson have had this much success playing on a Rex Ryan team?

Would David Carr be irrelevant had he been taken by a team that had a plan to bring him along patiently and surround him with support?

It’s often not about getting the right player. It’s about getting the right player for you.

And that’s got to do with where your team needs to add talent and just what kind of skill set and personality fits with what you like to do.

Which players, available at #20, are the right players for the Eagles?

That’s tough. Much easier to point out a few that aren’t.

Dorian Green-Beckham and Marcus Peters have shown, consistently, that they are willing to let their immaturity get in between themselves and the game of football: Chip Kelly has made it no secret in word nor in action that those simply aren’t people he wants in the organization.

Oct 18, 2014; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks offensive lineman Jake Fisher (75) motivates the crowd against the Washington Huskies at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

Jake Fisher, on the other hand, went to Oregon: Kelly has made it pretty clear that Ducks are people he very much wants in the organization.

One key is to look at moves the team has tried (but failed) to make: What players in the draft remind you of the players that the Eagles have wanted. But not gotten. Or wanted to keep. But lost anyway:

The Eagles clearly wanted to keep Jeremy Maclin: Nelson Agholor screams Jeremy Maclin.

The Eagles badly wanted Devin McCourty: Eric Rowe and Byron Jones, like McCourty is a corners that may be best served becoming a safeties at the next level.

I also look at moves the team has made and has been successful with:

Lane Johnson looked like a perfect fit with Philly: A long, lean, freakishly athletic lineman who can run with the skill-guys: Jake Fisher has a lot of that in him. If it worked once…?

That this is not a science bears repeating: If it were easy to know which guys would be picked where… the draft wouldn’t be fun.

And we all know it’s the single most fun event in the world of sports.

And if picking the right guy for the right team and the right time were easy? Coaches would never get fired, everyone would finish 8-8, and no one would watch football.

The fact is that none of us knows what will happen in Chicago later this month. But that sure doesn’t mean I’m gonna stop

But that sure as heck isn’t gonna stop me from guessing wildly.

My top three guesses as of today: Jalen Collins, CB, LSU. Nelson Agholor, WR, USC. Jake Fisher, OL, Oregon.