Theresa May and Angela Merkel's Brexit talks could see conversation dry up

Theresa May and Angela Merkel's Brexit talks could see conversation dry up

Angela Merkel is unlikely to hear answers on Brexit from Theresa May

For several years now, Angela Merkel has been one of the most important women in British politics.

When David Cameron was attempting to renegotiate the UK's relationship with the EU ahead of the Brexit referendum, his most intense lobbying efforts were focused on the German Chancellor.

A meeting with Mrs Merkel was the first foreign trip made by Theresa May when she became Prime Minister in 2016.

As the dominant power in the EU, it has long been understood by British prime ministers that little can change on the continent without Germany's backing.

And if the UK wants a generous Brexit deal - that comes anywhere close to delivering a freedom to strike independent trade deals, while also maintaining near frictionless trade with European markets (not least across the Irish border) - a change in the EU's "no cherry-picking" approach to negotiations is precisely what Mrs May needs.


So, it was a major blow to the UK's negotiating hopes when last year's German election results put Mrs Merkel's ability to form a new coalition government in question.

Not because a new German leader would necessarily have had a different approach to Brexit - all the mainstream players held broadly similar positions on the matter - but because Mrs Merkel's focus would, for months, be turned towards domestic coalition-building as the clock ticked towards the UK's exit day.

Image: The PM and her Cabinet have yet to settle on their agreed position

Although that German coalition has not yet been finalised, a deal has now been struck.

And so Mrs May will be hoping to seize the moment and use her meeting with Mrs Merkel in Berlin on Friday to discuss the growing Brexit dilemmas.

No doubt the Prime Minister will give the German Chancellor an insight into what she plans to say at the Munich Security Conference this weekend.

Mrs May's speech is likely to focus on the defence and security partnerships the UK wants to maintain with the EU post-Brexit.

No doubt, either, that the disagreements over the terms of the Brexit transition or implementation period will also be discussed between Mrs Merkel and the Prime Minister.

Given the remaining 27 EU countries have mandated European Commission official Michel Barnier to represent them, as a bloc, in the Brexit talks, the German Chancellor is unlikely to make any unilateral pledges.

But, if Mrs Merkel wanted to nudge Mr Barnier in a certain direction, few would argue she would be powerless to do so.

On the biggest issue of all, however, conversation could dry up.

Mrs May has not yet articulated what final relationship she seeks from Brexit.

The speeches she gave at Lancaster House and in Florence last year, in effect, set out what the UK doesn't want, but did little to define the space in between.

Image: The German Chancellor has the power to nudge Michel Barnier in a certain direction

In a private briefing with German journalists a few weeks ago, Mrs Merkel is said to have mocked Mrs May - describing a circular conversation in which the UK Prime Minister asked the Chancellor to make her an offer, prompting Mrs Merkel to point out the onus was on Britain to ask for what it wants.

Whatever Mrs May talks about in her discussions with the German Chancellor on Friday or in her speech on Saturday, it is unlikely she will answer that overriding Brexit end-state question.

For all the warnings from the EU side that "time is running out", or the demands for "concrete plans" from Mrs Merkel's official spokesman, Mrs May is hamstrung by the fact that, 19 months on from the EU referendum, she and her Cabinet have yet to settle on their agreed position.

The reason for that is because there's a real possibility they will not be able to do so.

A Prime Minister in a stronger position could perhaps throw down the gauntlet, set out her chosen route and tell her ministers to back her or walk.

But Mrs May's disastrous election performance last year means the Prime Minister now serves at their pleasure.

If they walked, she could well be forced to walk as well.

That suggests more fudging and postponement of the ultimate Brexit decision is likely.

There is no doubt the German Chancellor has the power to help Mrs May unblock the Brexit negotiations if she chooses to.

But, it is a case of "help me to help you".

And, for now at least, it is not within Mrs May's power to help herself.