Men’s Foil Individuals – Rio Olympics 2016, Sunday 7th August

With 3 weeks until the men’s foil event at the Olympics, let’s have a look at the contenders, their form and who is likely to star.

1. Alex Massialas (USA) World Ranking 1, World Ranking points 240

World no. 1 with two World Cups wins this season in Tokyo and Shanghai plus winner of the Pan-American championships and silver at last year’s World Championships, Massialas probably goes into the Olympics as favourite. His style might not be a thing of beauty but he is undoubtedly hard to stop once he gets on a roll and he has a tactical versatility that serves him well whoever the opponent. He’ll be looking to become the first American to win an Olympic gold at men’s foil.

2. Yuki Ota (Japan) World Ranking 2, World Ranking points 157

World champion in 2015, he was sensational last year but this season has looked much more vulnerable after early season podium placings in San Jose and Tokyo. On his best form he can beat anyone and he would love to improve on the Olympic silver medal he won in Beijing in 2008. His aggressive, high tempo fencing is a joy to watch but I feel he will leave Rio disappointed. Will he continue to Tokyo in 2020?

3. Jianfei Ma (China) World Ranking 3, World Ranking points 143

Was world no. 1 at the end of the 2013/14 season but had a dramatic fall down the rankings the following season. Ma has fought his way back up this year with a win in Turin and top 8 finishes in 4 other World Cups. A fairly classical technique with a wide repertoire, he’s good to watch and would be a good outside bet to win gold in Rio.

4. Gerek Meinhardt (USA) World Ranking 4, World Ranking points 142

Mister Consistent, Meinhardt is always there or thereabouts but rarely wins (1 career World Cup win). His high-intensity, all-action style is exciting to watch. Medals in Tokyo and Paris plus top 8 finishes in St Petersburg and Paris this season to add to his bronze medal at last year’s World Championships mean he’s a strong contender for a medal but the gold? Probably not.

5. James Davis (Great Britain) World Ranking 5, World Ranking points 133

Hugely impressive winner in Bonn, silver in San Jose and bronze in St Petersburg show Davis is a live contender to take gold in Rio. At his best, his control of distance, stop hits and increasingly fluent attacks combined with his imposing physicality make him a nightmare for any of the world’s top fencers. A definite possibility. A gold one? Why not?!

6. Richard Kruse (Great Britain) World Ranking 6, World Ranking points 133

Competing in his 4th Olympics, Kruse looks at ease with his technique and mixture of tactics. Has produced some of his best form at the big events this season winning the Grand Prix in Havana in relative comfort and taking silver in Turin. Vastly experienced and a deep thinker on the sport, he can find an answer to almost any opponent. As the leader of Great Britain’s rise to becoming a world power in men’s foil, a medal in Rio would be just reward for his dedication and resilience.

7. Giorgio Avola (Italy) World Ranking 8, World Ranking points 118

Suddenly Italy’s leading foilist in the world rankings after years as number 3 or 4 in the Italian team. Like Meinhardt, he is a consistent performer but a very rare winner (0 World Cup wins, winner European Championships 2011). Never quite looks likely to produce the magic to win although he has a great quarte-riposte and fantastic footwork. Not selected for London 2012, Avola may want to make the most of his chance in Rio. Possible medallist, unlikely winner.

8. El-Alaaeldin Abouelkassem (Egypt) World Ranking 9, World Ranking points 114

Silver medallist in London 2012 but hadn’t made a World Cup podium since then, until he took silver in Havana this season. May be hitting form at the right time but looks a very different fencer from the athlete that performed so well 4 years ago. Potential to be a surprise package again in Rio but would need to find his most inspired form.

9. Peter Joppich (Germany) World Ranking 10, World Ranking points 113

One of the giants of the sport over more than a decade. World champion 4 times and European champion as recently as 2013. Joppich’s form is now pretty inconsistent although a silver in Paris this year shows he can still produce the goods on occasion. Competing in his fourth Olympics, he has never won an individual medal at the Games and surely Rio will be his last chance. A last hurrah for the German dynamo? You can’t rule it out.

10. Daniele Garozzo (Italy) World Ranking 11, World Ranking points 113

The young star of the Italian team, with arguably the fastest lunge in men’s foil but tactically naive at times. His breakthrough season last year has been followed by only flashes of his best with just one podium finish this year. No World Cup wins to date. His attacking style is everything you’d expect of an Italian foilist and he is surprisingly effective at close quarters. Will he medal in Rio as a springboard to becoming a world great or have his limitations already been exposed?

11. Timur Safin (Russia) World Ranking 12, World Ranking points 112

Wildly inconsistent, he wasn’t a member of the Russian team at the World Championships last season but won in San Jose at the first event of this season and then produced a string of very ordinary results before winning the European Championships at the end of the season. Who knows which Safin will turn up on the day but the best version can beat anyone.

12. Jeremy Cadot (France) World Ranking 13, World Ranking points 109

A third place in San Jose plus a couple of top 8s this season but a lot of ordinary results mixed in there following a breakthrough season in 2014/15 where he reached no. 7 in the world. A style that pushes the boundaries of how far you can break time and still get the attack, Cadot is the leading Frenchman in men’s foil and following the disappointing results in London, where the French won zero medals in their most successful Olympic sport, they’ll be desperate to produce better in Rio. Cadot to medal? A long shot.

13. Haiwei Chen (China) World Ranking 14, World Ranking points 107

The young Chinese fencer finished the season strongly with a bronze medal in Shanghai and has become an established member of the national team. With a simple, mobile style with plenty to recommend it, Chen’s best chance may come in Tokyo in 4 years time but he’ll be a challenge for anyone in Rio and could upset some of the established stars.

14. Erwan LePechoux (France) World Ranking 15, World Ranking points 102

A stalwart of the French team, Rio will be his fourth Olympic Games. Still mercurial and keeping a largely ordinary French team competitive at world level. Many would love to see him win his first Olympic individual medal this time and a recent silver at the European Championships shows that is still a realistic possibility.

15. Jun Heo (Korea) World Ranking 17, World Ranking points 99

When it become clear that Korea weren’t going to qualify a team for Rio the battle between teammates Heo and Lee to claim the one individual spot hotted up with Heo claiming the place in the last qualifying competition. Lee has since overtaken him again in the world rankings but Heo knows that the silver medal he won in Tokyo this season is a result that can be repeated in Rio.

16. Miles Chamley-Watson (USA) World Ranking 18, World Ranking points 89

The face of fencing? Sponsored by Nike and Red Bull and very visible on social media, Chamley-Watson won the World Championships in 2013 despite being only the fourth-highest American in the world rankings. Most of the time his fencing is distinctly ordinary but produces the occasional massive result. A shade fortunate to make the American team, the USA using their own ranking and qualification system to pick fencers for the individual event rather than the world rankings which meant Chamley-Watson was in and Race Imboden (world no. 1 in 2014/15 and winner in Paris this season) was out. His style is an opinion-divider and I’ll accept that it can be very effective. A medallist in Rio? A possibility.

17. Artur Akhmatkhuzin (Russia) World Ranking 19 World Ranking points 89

Missed virtually the entire 2013/14 season after finishing second in the 2013 World Championships in order to have both hips replaced! Akhmatkhuzin has returned to the Russian team but rarely looked like reproducing that kind of form apart from taking bronze at last year’s World Championships. Quite an attractive attacking style but with a tendency to leak hits. With his history of winning medals at World Championships, an Olympic medal must be a possibility but his form this season would make it a surprise.

18. Ka Long Cheung (Hong Kong) World Ranking 20, World Ranking points 88

Still a teenager, Cheung produced a stunning performance to win the Asian Championships this season. A nice balanced style with plenty to work on, his goals may focus more on Tokyo 2020 than Rio since his World Cup results this season have been steady rather than spectacular. Potentially a star of the future.

19. Sheng Lei (China) World Ranking 21, World ranking points 88

The Olympic Champion at London 2012, Sheng Lei has struggled to produce that form again and hasn’t made the podium at a World Cup since his triumph in London. Defending his title may bring out the best in him but only a sentimentalist would fancy his chances in Rio. Remains a classy fencer and a worthy Olympic champion.

20. Laurence Halsted (Great Britain) World Ranking 22, World Ranking points 88

Following London 2012, Halsted took a couple of years out of the sport before being persuaded to return to boost Team GB’s chances of qualifying a team for Rio, a goal which was duly achieved. Top 8 finishes at last year’s World Championships and at the recent European Championships show he still thrives on the big stage. A definite swansong in Rio with the team probably his best chance for a medal.

21. Andrea Cassara (Italy) World Ranking 24, World Ranking points 77

A legend of the sport. 2011 world champion, four times European champion, 5 times world no. 1, winner of 28 World Cup events and an ever present in the top 5 since 2003. Until this season. Missing from Cassara’s phenomenal fencing CV is an individual Olympic medal. Like his long time rival Joppich, Cassara will want to complete his career with a medal in Rio. Plenty of signs that his tactical astuteness remains but injury and physical decline may make this a step too far.

22. Alexey Cheremisinov (Russia) World ranking 25, World Ranking points 74

European champion in 2013 and World champion in 2014, Cheremisinov has slid steadily down the ranking since then. Top 8 finishes in San Jose and Shanghai this season but not threatening a win. Huge attack and likes a scrap but the feeling persists that too many fencers now know his game too well for him to feature on the podium in Rio.

23. Enzo Lefort (France) World Ranking 26, World Ranking points 73

World no. 2 at the end of the 2014 season, Lefort looked destined to become a superstar but the last 2 seasons have failed to continue that progress. Top 8 in Havana and the European championships hint at a return to form but his long, fluent attacks have been negated by opponents unwilling to let him fence and he doesn’t seem suited to a fight.

24. Tarek Ayad (Egypt) World Ranking 33, World Ranking points 50.5

With a world ranking boosted by 30 points from the not-very-strong African championships, Ayad is probably the highest ranked of the also-rans. A surprising last 16 in Turin aside, the rest of his results fall between poor and ordinary.

25. Daniel Gomez (Mexico) World Ranking 34, World Ranking points 49

A remarkable 2nd place at the Pan-American championships contribute 39 of his world ranking points. A decent fencer but making up the numbers at the Olympics.

26. Alex Choupenitch (Czech Republic) World Ranking 37, World Ranking points 46

Like Cheremisinov and Lefort, 2014 marked the high point of Choupenitch’s career to date when he reached no. 5 in the world rankings. No top 8 placings this season and looking stalled. Very tall and physically imposing, he may yet come good as he is only 22 but probably not at this Olympics.

27. Victor Sintes (Algeria) World Ranking 42, World Ranking points 41.5

A member of the French team at London 2012, he has been prevented from competing while he waited for clearance to fence for Algeria. A quality fencer in his prime but the combination of a shortage of recent international experience and his age (he turns 36 the day after the individual event in Rio) make a return to the highest echelons of men’s foil unlikely for Sintes.

28. Mohamed Ayoub Ferjani (Tunisia) World Ranking 43, World Ranking points 41

Most of Ferjani’s world ranking points come from the African championships, a last 32 at the World Championships is his next best result.

29. Ghislain Perrier (Brazil) World Ranking 46, World Ranking points 37.5

Former French international now representing Brazil. Perrier was instrumental in helping the host nation qualify for the team event but no chance in the individual.

30. Max Van Haster (Canada) World Ranking 47, World ranking points 37

Will have been disappointed that Canada couldn’t stay ahead of Brazil to qualify a team, Van Haster has the consolation of a place in the individual event. Beat Jianfei Ma in Bonn to make the top 32 but don’t expect a similar surprise result in Rio.

31. Rene Pranz (Austria) World Ranking 55, World Ranking points 29

Won the tough European zonal qualifier to make it to Rio but unlikely to progress far. An exciting style with plenty of variety

32. Mohamed Essam (Egypt) World Ranking 60, World Ranking points 24.5

Young Egyptian making up the numbers in the individual.

33. Guilherme Toldo (Brazil) World Ranking 66, World Ranking points 23.5

Home favourite, unlikely to progress.

34. Henrique Marques (Brazil) World Ranking 79, World Ranking points 20

Not yet 20, a home Olympics will be a fantastic experience for Marques.

35. Antonio Leal (Venezuela) World Ranking 92, World Ranking points 13.5

And bringing up the rear, Leal of Venezuela. No top 64s in World Cups this season.

So who’s missing?

World no. 7 Race Imboden doesn’t make the individual event for USA and will be warming the bench for team event. The ferocious Russian Dmitry Rigin suffered a dip in form this season and will also be reserve in the team competition while winner of St Petersburg, Dimitry Zherebchenko can’t even make the flight to Rio. Italian superstar Andrea Baldini’s recent patchy form also sees him miss out on a place in the individual event but his experience will be added to the team as Italy seek to retain their Olympic title. No Koreans except Heo means Lee, Son and Kwon (ranked 16, 40 and 41) are missing out and no Japanese foilists except Ota, although their bright young talents Shikine and Matsuyama look promising for their home Olympics in 2020.

And who’s going to win?

Picking the winner of the Olympic men’s foil gold medal is a bit like trying to pick the winner of The Grand National! With so many contenders who have won at world level in recent years, there is a lot to be said for writing out the names of the top 25 or so fencers on bits of paper, putting them all in a hat and picking out one at random. There have been a number of slightly (but not completely) unexpected Olympic winners with Smirnov in 1980 and Numa in 1984 probably being most recent examples of a favourite claiming the title. Sometimes the winner seems to find the performance of a lifetime to take the ultimate prize (Guyart in 2004, Puccini in 1996). Sentimentalists would probably like to see a podium with three from Cassara, Joppich, Kruse and LePechoux as reward for more than a decade of fantastic fencing. British fans can look at Kruse and Davis as world class fencers capable of producing a gold medal-winning performance and the Americans will see their generation of exceptional talent as the dominant force in men’s foil today, ready to claim the Olympic title. In truth, nobody can be sure before the day but I am genuinely excited to see the drama unfold.