John Fay

jfay@enquirer.com

Free agent season is upon us.

The Reds will be shopping. But my guess is they are way down on the bargain-basement shelves. General manager Walt Jocketty has been very clear that the Reds aren't going for the high-dollars guys.

So no Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Melky Cabrera or Nelson Cruz.

I still think Nori Aoki and Michael Morse make the most sense.

The Reds' offense was a huge disappointment last year, and a lot of that can be attributed to the drop in on-base percentage.

"Offensively, I think you recognize we didn't get as many guys on base this year," Jocketty said. "Fewer guys on base; fewer runs are going to score. We've got to take a hard look at that. Part of that is a function of Joey (Votto) being out."

The Reds finished 13th in the National League in on-base at .296. They also finished 13th in runs. In 2013, they finished second in the NL in on-base at .327. They finished third in runs.

The drop in on-base -- plus a leaky bullpen -- meant going from a 90-win team to a 76-win team.

Aoki or Morse would help on that count. Aoki put up a .348 on-base. Morse put up a .336 on-base, but he gives you much more power, as he hit 18 home runs playing his home games at AT&T in San Francisco. That probably translates to 24 or 25 homers playing his home games at Great American.

Aoki and Morse are also more likely to be willing to sign a two-year deal. With Jesse Winker and Yorman Rodriguez close to big league-ready, the Reds probably don't want to go any longer than two years when signing a left fielder.

One year is probably ideal, but few free agents are willing to take a one-year deal.

For that reason, the Reds may try to address left field through trade and get a stop-gap guy. The general manager meetings start Monday. Jocketty will test the trade market there. If the Reds don't see a fit there, they'll likely turn to free agency.

The Reds moved quickly last year with their free agency signings. Brayan Pena was signed on Nov. 20. Skip Schumaker was signed on Nov. 26.

The Reds are probably going to go a little more high profile this offseason, so it may take longer.

QUALIFYING OFFERS: Teams extended qualifying offers to players yesterday. The number this year is $15.3 million.

This is the scary thing for the Reds: The Yankees made a qualifying offer to closer David Robertson. If Robertson's worth $15.3 million, what is Aroldis Chapman worth? Chapman's numbers were better than Robertson's across the board and he's eligible for arbitration.

The qualifying offers figure to be north of $16 million after the 2015 season. That may influence what the Reds do as far as trades.

You'd definitely make a qualifying offer to Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos. But you don't with Mike Leake and Alfredo Simon. No qualifying offer, no draft compensation. So if you want to get something for Leake and Simon, it would have to be through trade.

PLAYOFFS??? Joe Maddon set the goal high as the Cubs' manager.

"I'm gonna be talking playoffs next year," Maddon told reporters. "I'll tell you that right now. I can't go to spring training and say anything else. You have to set your goals high, because if you don't set them high enough you might hit your mark, and that's not a good thing. We're gonna talk World Series this year, and I'm gonna believe it. It's in our future."

The Cubs have a lot of young talent. But it's beyond raw. If Maddon can get them to the playoffs in 2015, he's worth $25 million a year -- not the $25 million he's getting over five years.