That range is lower than the estimated 40,000 or so people the Department of Health Services has said would shift from the exchange to Medicaid under expansion. The new report suggests that significantly more than half, not just half, of the 82,000 people expected to join Medicaid are currently uninsured, health department spokeswoman Jennifer Miller said.

More than 200,000 people are on the exchange in Wisconsin.

While some Republicans have said shifting people from the exchange to Medicaid would increase premiums on the exchange, in part because the market would be smaller, the new report suggests the move would have the opposite effect. Rates would drop because of "improved morbidity," meaning those remaining on the exchange would be healthier than those leaving and thus less expensive, the Wakely report suggests.

"Previous research has shown that Medicaid expansion reduces individual market premiums," the report says.

It cites previous studies by the Obama administration in 2016 and in the Journal of Health Economics in 2018 saying premiums are 7-11% lower in states that expanded Medicaid than in those that didn't.