Adrian Peterson

Arian Foster

Doug Martin

Marshawn Lynch

CJ Spiller

Jamaal Charles

Alfred Morris

Ray Rice

Trent Richardson

LeSean McCoy

This was the first round of a recent ten-team mock draft I did on ESPN. Ten running backs went with the ten first picks. With the perceived depth of WR coming out of this draft and the shift away from last year’s elite QB – elite TE drafting method, the running backs may have a short shelf life in the opening round or two, especially in a standard league. In the second round of this mock, S.Jax, Ridley, Forte, and Gore were all drafted. Chris Johnson, David Wilson, MJD, DMC, and Montee Ball went in the third.

19 running backs in the first three rounds may not surprise you. Ten in the first, though, might. If the perceived value of RBs is all-in this year—meaning you’re more willing to take RB10 than WR1—then it’s up to you to make sure you get a return on your investment.



In this draft, for instance, if I’m sitting at ten and I have LeSean McCoy as my last RB1, I know I’m taking him with one of the swing picks, picking up Calvin Johnson with the other pick. But if I’m sitting at 3 through 6, it gets a bit trickier for me. How do we decide between these RB1s—say, Martin, Lynch, Spiller, and Charles? And what do we do if we think one of these players has the potential to outscore Foster and we’re sitting at pick two?

Foster last year ran the ball 351 times. Maybe, for you, his goal-line work outweighs the toll of his heavy workload over the last few years. Maybe you see his three-year decline in yards per carry as something that will not revert back to positive gain. Maybe you’re not worried about Ben Tate eating into his playing time but still you worry about the possibility of injuries after such heavy usage.

2012 Goal line work:

Rushes inside the 20 Rushes inside the 10 Red-Zone TDs Peterson 59 28 8 Foster 74 42 15 J.Charles 23 5 1 M.Lynch 51 21 7 D.Martin 53 27 6 C.Spiller 17 6 4

It’s a small sample, but Spiller on those 17 red-zone rushes averaged almost 5 yards per, whereas all the other rushers hovered around 2.0 – 2.5 YPC within the red-zone. It’s clear that Foster was Houston’s number one method to bash it into the endzone, and with a healthier o-line this year, it will probably stay that way.

But, back to the middle of the first round.

Attempts Yards YPC Receptions Rec. Yards Total TDs J.Charles 285 1509 5.3 35 236 6 M.Lynch 315 1590 5.0 23 196 12 D.Martin 319 1454 4.6 49 472 12 C.Spiller 207 1244 6.0 43 459 8

This is a tough choice. Lynch and Martin really produced last year as the focal points of their respective offenses, but there’s a hitch in both. Lynch now has Percy Harvin on his team, who will demand rushes as well as more targets than the likes of Sidney Rice and Golden Tate. On the other hand, a large part of Martin’s fantasy output came in a few monster games, with the sputtering Bucs offense holding him back in more than a few. Lynch seemed more consistent, but Martin did actually have one more 10+ point fantasy game than him in 2012. And, do we trust Lynch’s sudden 5.0 yards per carry outburst after never topping 4.4 in his career before that—and the big gulf between effective years in his career? How much weight does Lynch’s inflated YPC hold, especially against a one year sample size for Doug Martin? These are questions we can’t know the answer to. Not right now, at least. What you choose to do with this information is your decision. All you can do is make sure you’re informed, you can never make sure you’re right.

Charles and Spiller seem like different backs than Lynch and Martin. Charles is getting a new scheme and a new coach who has turned backs like Brian Westbrook into fantasy machines. Charles simply disappeared from the gameplan a few times last year—even the coach didn’t know where or why—so the change should certainly be a positive thing for him, even if Reid has always been a pass happy coach. Charles, like Spiller, doesn’t need so many carries to be effective because of his burst. TDs are a concern for Charles but look at the smaller Brian Westbrook’s total TDs under Andy Reid from ’03 till ’08: 11, 9, 7, 11, 12, 14. That’s averaging over 10 total touchdowns a year. With ten touchdowns this year, Charles could easily be the top overall running back.

Spiller, too, is a high-upside back. With Fred Jackson being hurt last year, Spiller had another chance to shine, but now Jackson is back and who knows how the Bills’ new coach Marrone will choose to use them. (Remember, under Chan Gailey, Spiller ended ’11 with a few really nice games, and then went back to his splitting-time role.) Even though Marrone might keep the more talented back off the field for longer than fantasy owners would like, Spiller has been effective even with limited usage. In the first two weeks, used sparingly, Spiller ripped off 50 fantasy points. In the last eight weeks of the season, when Spiller got a majority of his carries, he went over 10 fantasy points seven times. The hope is that with a new QB (Kolb or perhaps rookie EJ Manuel) and a more efficient offense in Buffalo, Spiller will face less pressure in the box as well. Even so, if he gets 14 – 15 carries and a handful of passes, he can still produce like an RB1.

If it’s me, I have Charles above Lynch and Spiller and Martin. But if it’s you, do you. These backs, as well as Ray Rice, Trent Richardson, Alfred Morris, and LeSean McCoy all have incredible upside this year. Find the back that you think has the largest potential mixed with the minimum amount of risk. There is no guarantee, but there are hints from the past that we can use to try and foresee the future. We want consistency in the first round—I’d rather have a guy that puts up 80 yards and a TD every week over a guy who goes off every few. For me, I think Charles could find that consistency. I think Lynch could maintain his, especially in Seattle. I’m not so sure about Spiller and Martin. Their teams don’t exactly exude confidence in offensive consistency. And, beyond these backs I’ve gone into depth with, the same thing could happen with Rice and Bernard Pierce this year that happened with Tate and Foster last year—an empty threat of vultured carries. Trent Richardson could be healthy all year and score 15 touchdowns. LeSean could run wild in Chip’s new offense and Alfred Morris could build off of his super-solid rookie year. It’s a good year for backs, but be sure to get yours early before the shelves are empty.