Free Agency is in full swing, and the number of game-changing roster moves is only increasing. You can read last week’s article focusing on the big WR’s that have moved in FA and the fantasy repercussions here, but in this article, we are going to hone into the big running back moves that have big ramifications for the 2017 FF season.

Eddie Lacy to the Seahawks

Ah, the big man himself. Eddie Lacy disappointed fantasy owners last year after a Week 6 injury that sidelined him and hurt his production from then forward. But in 2014, Lacy had a stellar RB1 season. Lacy is a the definition of a powerful, bowling-ball back that doesn’t shy away from contact. He became a weapon in the Green Bay passing attack and his combination of tackle-breaking, deceptive speed, and light feet made him a top-tier RB, not just in fantasy, but in the NFL. Now, he’s added to a run-heavy offense that knows how to utilize a power running back (see Marshawn Lynch). Seems perfect? Only a couple, pretty critical issues. For one, Eddie Lacy is reportedly 267 pounds. Remember, he is a power back, they are supposed to be pretty big to break tackles. Makes sense, really. But that kind of weight on a professional NFL running back? Doesn’t exactly scream top 5 RB to me. Remember, we can’t judge these guys by average standards of fitness. There’s a reason why a skinny, short, unathletic dude (ahem yours truly) is writing on a fantasy football site instead of playing actual football. In addition, it’s not like Lacy is being handed the starting role, either. In addition, that injury and lack of production from last season was in part caused by this weight issue. Put this as a major red flag to monitor as we approach Draft Day. Going a bit deeper, Lacy’s case as a top RB is worsened by the competition he will face in Seattle. Thomas Rawls, the dude who was supposed to take over the title of Beast Mode, is still there. In addition, there still is dynamic CJ Prosise, who showed flashes of ability last season, and could eat into Lacy’s opportunities in the passing game. Up to this point, you’re probably thinking that I think Eddie Lacy is someone to avoid in drafts. But honestly, I don’t. These factors prevent him from being a top-tier RB1, but definitely don’t stop him from being a productive RB2 with RB1 upside. The reality of the fantasy world is that people are going to value Lacy at a pretty low price, arguably for good reasons like the ones listed above. If Lacy is going, say, in the mid fifth round, then I think Lacy could be the biggest steal of the draft. Let’s look at the cold hard facts. Eddie Lacy has proven that he can be a top tier RB. He is being inserted into a run heavy offense. His competition is pretty tough, but they have been injured and haven’t put together the consistent production that Lacy has in the past. In addition, Lacy had a decent season up until his injury last season. He’s a guy that I would gamble on as early as the end of Round 4, because if you’ve got a solid RB1, then with Lacy you’ve got a decent RB2 with RB1 upside. It’s a risk, don’t get me wrong. But if he starts losing weight, the situation seems to become clearer, Lacy could be poised for a bounce-back. This unquestionably hurts the value of both Thomas Rawls and CJ Prosise, if you’re in dynasty leagues I’d use any name value or Seahawks homers to orchestrate a trade for those two, Lacy will steal a great deal of carries and could potentially become a workhorse. Another big question mark is the Green Bay running game. Ty Montgomery definitely increases in value, but the degree of increase depends on who and if they sign someone to fill Lacy’s place.

Latavius Murray to the Vikings

The Vikings and Adrian Peterson have parted ways. Taking AD’s place is none other than former Raiders back Latavius Murray. Murray was a relatively effective yet streaky back last year, but still stood as a serviceable RB2. There are some factors that may indicate that Murray could see some improvement, like the fact that he is entering a traditionally run heavy offense and that he is a better fit for running out of the shotgun and as a pass blocker. He’s also got the advantage of decent pass catching ability. Despite these factors, I see Murray taking a step back this season. Let’s take a hard look at the facts. Oakland had one of the best offensive lines last year, and the Vikings had one of the worst. To add on to that, the Vikings offense shifted after the loss of Peterson to injury last season, going to a more pass heavy scheme, and while that could benefit Murray in the passing game, he’s no LeVeon Bell. I think he’s going to lose more from a lack of carries than he gains from more targets in the passing attack. Further, he’s got the competition of Jerick McKinnon, who may have been ineffective last season, but could steal some carries and possibly push the scales toward more of a RBBC rather than Murray as a workhorse. The reality of the Vikings offense is that it is in a transition period to a modern pass heavy scheme. Their traditional reliance on the run is a product of having a game-changing, tackle-breaking RB like Peterson who could carry the offense himself. Murray isn’t that. If anything, I see McKinnon as a guy you might want to take a flier on in very deep leagues if you’re targeting Murray in the draft because he seems like a guy who could get consistent carries and still stands as a pretty solid handcuff. The status of Adrian Peterson remains in question, but unless he lands in some kind of miracle situation, his age and injury history make him a big risk in drafts.

Danny Woodhead to the Ravens

Danny Woodhead, the multipurpose fantasy darling has found a home in Baltimore. His addition makes him a legit fantasy option right away because Joe Flacco likes passing into the backfield, and Woodhead is a top tier receiver in the RB position. He could easily lead the backfield and become a legit FLEX or deep league low end RB2 from the combination of receptions and respectable rushing. The real impact of the signing is what it does to the teams involved. The Ravens backfield last year was very questionable, with Terrance West leading the backfield in the beginning of the season and Kenneth Dixon taking over in the latter half, but neither performed at a consistently productive level. The addition of Woodhead makes both of these guys highly questionable in terms of future production, as these guys were already question marks last season. I think the addition of Woodhead really reveals the lack of faith the Ravens have in these guys, and with Woodhead dominating the passing game and also stealing carries, both of these guys will have a very tough road to fantasy relevance. On the other end of the move, Melvin Gordon takes a definite boost from this move. Gordon was a touchdown machine last season, that’s where his scoring mainly originated from, and the loss of Woodhead means that Gordon has no opposition in the backfield and will be a true workhorse back, dominating both carries and catches in San Diego. If I’m being honest, I also see Phillip Rivers taking a small hit. The ability to have a last-ditch option on check-down routes with Woodhead allowed for a more balanced passing attack, and at the moment, the Chargers haven’t added enough receiving threats to mitigate this loss and make up for Rivers’ consistent streak of interceptions.

So, that’s it for the RB’s. Stay tuned for more articles about Free Agency, and more articles about the NFL draft (it’s a month away!!!). Also, I’m planning to start a series on fantasy draft prep, and the big targets, breakouts, and busts to avoid, so stay tuned for that as well. You can read all of my past articles here.

See you soon!