No modern economy has experienced anything quite like this. We simply don’t know how the economic machine will respond to the damage that is starting to occur, nor how hard or easy it will be to turn it back on again.

Thanks to government statistical tables, we can understand the sheer size of the economic sectors that appear to be entering a near shutdown. The United States and much of the world are on the verge of a tremendous shrinkage in consumption spending, which in turn will mean less economic output and lower incomes among the people who provide those services.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis tables of personal consumption expenditures include three categories likely to see very sharp declines in the weeks ahead. Americans spent $478 billion on transportation services in 2019 (which includes things like airfare and train fare but not the purchase of personal automobiles).

They spent $586 billion on recreation services (think tickets to sports events or gambling losses in a casino). And they spent $1.02 trillion on food services and accommodation (restaurant meals and hotel stays, but not grocery store food brought home).

That adds up to $2.1 trillion a year, 14 percent of total consumption spending — which appears likely to dry up for at least a few weeks and maybe longer. We don’t know how much those consumption numbers will drop, and for how long, just that it will be by a lot.