In 2014, the Left could not exploit the anti-Congress sentiment that was sweeping the country. A large chunk of its ground level cadres and supporters, particularly from among the unemployed youth, the computer savvy generation and the middle class, have switched loyalty.

By Saroj Nagi

New Delhi: Much like Humpty Dumpty in the nursery rhyme, the Left has had such a mighty fall that all the Prakash Karats, AB Bardhans and other top communist leaders may find it difficult to put it together again.

Many would consider it a huge loss if the communists fade away. The Left has provided a political, moral and ideological tilt to even the keel of a lopsided polity, economy and society. Take the case of former prime minister Indira Gandhi. The reasons behind her move may be internal to the Congress, but she took a leaf out of the Left’s book when she gave a socialist twist to her politics, nationalised banks and spoke of the poor and the marginalised--the theme song of communists—by giving the slogan of “garibi hatao.’’

More than two decades later, her daughter-in-law and Congress president Sonia Gandhi did the same to lift her party out of the morass it was in. She gave a leftward tilt to the Congress with her slogan of “Congress ka haath, aam aadmi ke saath’’ and rode to power on it in 2004. Bouyed by the outside support of the CPM, the CPI, the RSP and the Forward Bloc, she got the Manmohan Singh government to come out with pro-poor decisions that included, among other things, the farm loan waiver scheme which paid the Congress dividends in the 2009 national elections. But before that, the Left withdrew support in 2008 over the signing of the Indo-US civil nuclear deal.

Without the steering hand of the Left, UPA-2 collapsed, its failure to address price rise, inflation, allegations of corruption in high places, paralysis in decision making and a drift in governance taking a heavy toll of Sonia’s party which could win only 44 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

Non-Congress, non-BJP parties, on their part, also found an ally in the communists whenever they sensed an opportunity for a third front government as had happened in the case of the National Front and United Front governments in the 10 period between 1989 and 1999. On each occasion, the Left played the Pied Piper on the strength of the Lok Sabha seats it had in hand.

But it failed to find takers to this idea when it negotiated from a position of weakness. Its efforts to cobble a pre-poll combine of non-Congress non-BJP parties ahead of the 2014 elections remained a non-starter as it had lost its influence considerably over the past few years, particularly after Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress ousted the communists and stormed to power in West Bengal in 2011. Stronger regional leaders like BJD’s Naveen Patnaik remained cool to the idea of a third front and AIADMK’s J Jayalalithaa even thumbed her nose at it.

The outcome of the Lok Sabha polls—in which the Left could manage only 10 seats-- has further weakened its position, eroded whatever little influence it had on the others and now poses an existential crisis for the Left and its ideology. To rub it in, Narendra Modi--who the communists, the Congress and some other parties saw as `”dangerous’’, “communal’’, and “divisive’’--succeeded in uniting large sections of the population to become prime minister and give the BJP a clear majority of its own.

High and lows

Though the Left is down in the dumps now, it had started off well after Independence.

In the first three general elections, the undivided Communist Party of India held the second position in the Lok Sabha after the Behemoth Congress. It 1952, it got 16 seats and 3.29 percent votes; in 1957, this went up to 27 seats and 8.92 percent and in 1962, to 29 seats and a 9.94 percent vote share.

Things weren’t bad even after the CPI split in 1964 and the CPM came into existence. In 1967 the two parties got 23 and 19 seats and a vote share of 6.11 percent and 4.28 percent respectively. Ten years later in 1977, the CPM surged ahead of the CPI getting 25 seats to the latter’s 23---and continued to maintain that trend through thick and thin.

The high point came in 1999 when between them the CPM, the CPI got 63 seats and the RSP and the Forward Bloc brought another 12 on the table. Though this tally came down to 58 seats in 2004 it was still big enough to provide muscle, power and force to steer the policies of the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre. But five years later, the figure came down to just 24 Lok Sabha seats of which 16 came from the CPM.

The scenario was replicated in 2014. The CPM—the sheet anchor of other communist outfits like the CPI, the RSP and the Forward Bloc---for the first time saw its vote percentage plummeting to 1.79% while that of the other communist parties was less than 0.5%---making the Left’s task of reviving itself a long, agonising, painful and tortuous exercise with no guarantee of any success.

The Left’s falling graph in the national elections synchronised with its dismal performance in its bastion in West Bengal.

Price of smugness?

There is now a demand for a change of leadership. But what the Left does in the coming days depends a lot on the reasons it identifies for its down fall and failure.

Smug until now in its own invincibility, the Left is yet to come to terms with its political setbacks and electoral debacles starting with the Nandigram and Singur episodes and moving on to the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the assembly and the local body elections in West Bengal and the national elections in 2014.

In 2014, the Left could not exploit the anti-Congress sentiment that was sweeping the country. A large chunk of its ground level cadres and supporters, particularly from among the unemployed youth, the computer savvy generation and the middle class, have switched loyalty first to the Trinamool and far more disturbingly, in its view, to the BJP. A senior CPM leader admitted that it would be far more difficult to get the migrants back as they would be "indoctrinated"’ by the BJP unlike other workers who join parties like the Congress or even the Trinamool for that matter.

Modi’s ability to dovetail development and governance to his Hindutva image enabled him to lure supporters away from the Left. The minority vote migrated from the communist camp to the party which appeared to be a stronger force; in the case of West Bengal it was to the Trinamool Congress whose leader Mamata Banerjee launched a tirade against Modi to woo the minority voters.

A weakened CPM is now called upon to lead the other communist outfits to fight on several fronts simultaneously. There is an ideological battle against the forces of Hindutva. The main political battle is in West Bengal since the Left remains a viable force in small sized Kerala and it remains in power in Tripura. And it has to battle its own internal weaknesses and try to revive the decrepit organization which has been robbed of its fighting spirit first by living off the benefits of three decades of power in West Bengal and then by the serial setbacks.

For a party that instilled fear among the people, the boot is now on the other foot. 2014 had added the fear factor among party workers: fear the unknown and uncertain future; fear the Trinamool; fear of facing extinction; fear of whether or not they will ever be able to stand on their feet.

The communists failed to read their fate or do anything about it. Yet the signs were there that the liberalisation of the economy and its attendant fallout would shrink the space for the Left at least for some time.

The Left’s two biggest failures have been that while it has governed West Bengal for over 30 years---and has won a fourth term in Tripura---it could not use the levers of power to expand its social and geographic base even in states adjoining its bastions. It succumbed to the temptation of acting as a facilitator for a non-BJP and at times a non-Congress grouping at the national level instead of trying to increase its own strength in the Hindi belt and other states —notwithstanding the promise it kept making to itself since the Seventies. Perhaps it could not attune itself to the role castes play in politics.

Linked to this, is its second big failure--- its inability to create a new generation of leaders who could appeal to Young India, in which over 65 percent of the population is below 35 years. With 43-year old Rahul failing to inspire young voters, the 63-year Modi stepped in to do so with success as he began to talk their language, structure their dreams and use the technologies they are comfortable with. The Left seemed stuck in a time warp with all its talk about fighting "neo-liberalism, communalism and pro imperialist approach of the ruling class"-- which even if significant appeared jargons to a voting population that could not identify with such phrases.

Already battling an intensely corporatised election, the Left went into the 2014 polls without a clear agenda or promise that could attract the voters so that its rallies remained non-starters and the results robbed it even of its status of a national party to retain which it needed to win at least 11 seats.

And now unless it goes for a massive overhaul, all that the Left can do today is to sing “We shall overcome’’ and “Hum Honge Kamyaab ek din.’’