By: Nate McMullen

Seems like the past few days have been rife with division rivalry games. In a time of tanking, those rivalries don’t always mean a whole lot beyond bragging rights. This one is different. The Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Dbacks are both fully in the NL wild card race, but both seem to be teetering between commitment to contention and total collapse. This midweek series could have serious implications as the two middleweights look for an edge.

Moneyline: COL +123, ARI -133

Runline: COL +1.5 (-150), ARI -1.5 (+140)

O/U: 10 (O -110, U +100)

First Pitch: 6:40 PM PST, Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ

Colorado Rockies

Side note: as I’m writing this preview, I’ve got John Denver’s “Rocky Mountain High” stuck in my head. Coincidence? I think not. Anyway, after a historically prolific offensive series against the Padres, Colorado comes into this series tied with the Dbacks for second in the NL West. That ridiculous weekend series in which the Padres and Rockies combined for 92 runs in four games (most ever in modern era, according to ESPN) reminds me that we aren’t in Colorado anymore, so road statistics will be most helpful here. Away from Coors, the Rockies have put up the second-worst OPS in the league at .663 and have scored a pedestrian 151 runs. Conversely, starter Antonio Senzatela (5-5, 5.48) benefits from lower elevations and has put up a 4.70 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP in away games. Still not great, but certainly better than his overall numbers.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Dbacks are hanging in there after a solid road trip in which they went 7-3. However, as an Arizona native and a devoted Dbacks follower, I can’t help but feel like there just isn’t enough here for a sustained playoff run. The Arizona offense, buoyed by a streaking Ketel Marte (.448/.515/1.034 in his last seven games) and a few surprise contributors (see Ildemaro Vargas, Tim Locastro), has been inconsistent. They’ll go off for eight or ten runs one day, combine for four hits in their next two games, and then score 15 the next. Starting pitching has been somewhat reliable, but after losing Luke Weaver to injury and Taijuan Walker to reinjury before his return, they’ve had a ridiculously tough time filling the fifth rotation slot. Manager Tory Lovullo can’t expect to piecemeal his rotation the rest of the way and see playoff-worthy results. Still, the Dbacks are riding the wave of a successful road trip into this series. We’ll see how far it carries them.

Analysis and Prediction

Dbacks starter Merrill Kelly (7-6, 3.73) has been lights out in June, winning his last three starts while yielding only two earned runs in 22.1 innings. His last time facing this Rockies squad, Kelly allowed four runs in 6.2 innings at Coors. Senzatela has been spotty, putting up two good starts in June before getting pasted by the Cubs for six runs in four innings. To recap: the Dbacks are hot after a solid road trip but are only 14-16 at home. The Rockies just split a wild series in which their offense exploded but are 15-19 on the road. These NL West rivals seem to be on fairly even ground, so I’ll go with the hotter team and hotter pitcher. The Dbacks will win this series opener.

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