So the Super Bowl’s over and you’ve run out of football things to yell about. Well, there’s good news: Spring training is a week away, so it’s time to yell about baseball.

The following list aims to rank all 30 MLB teams by the strength of their starting rotations. It considers each club’s projected opening day starting staff by recent performance, projections, and general health, as well as the organization’s depth behind its front five. It accounts for park and environmental factors, which is to say that the Rockies’ group may well finish the season with a higher ERA than the Padres’ set despite significantly outperforming it.

Last year’s list ranked the Chicago Cubs first overall and the internet became very angry. That looks like a good call in retrospect: Though one could reasonably argue that the Cubs’ stellar team defense accounts for some of the staff’s success, Chicago starters stayed healthy all season and led all Major League rotations in ERA by a wide margin.

Nonetheless, I whiffed big time on plenty of teams last year and undoubtedly will do so again in 2017. Starting pitchers get hurt constantly, plus some guys just kind of fall apart and others seemingly emerge from nowhere into superstardom. This is all just educated guesswork, again. Here we go:

30. San Diego Padres

Luis Perdomo may well prove in 2017 that he’s the best Padres pitcher ever named Luis Perdomo. That’s about the most exciting thing I can offer about the San Diego Padres’ 2017 starting rotation picture. The Padres have some promising young offensive pieces, but their best minor league arms appear years away from the Majors. It’s hard to find a way to discuss the group’s 2017 outlook that doesn’t seem mean, so I’ll just note that there’s a reasonable case to be made that, with the possible exception of $1.75 million offseason get Jhoulys Chacin, no one currently in the Padres’ rotation mix would land a spot on the Miami Marlins’ opening day starting staff.

29. Miami Marlins

The death of Jose Fernandez at age 24 in September robbed the baseball world of one of its brightest young stars and cost the Marlins a transcendent ace at the front of their pitching staff. In Fernandez’s absence, Wei-Yin Chen becomes the de facto ace of the staff despite a down season in his first year in Miami in 2016. Newcomers Edinson Volquez and Dan Straily join a rotation mix with some depth in viable but largely underwhelming back-end arms, and spacious Marlins Park will cover some of the damage, but the Marlins don’t have anyone with frontline-starter upside on the horizon for 2017.

28. Minnesota Twins

The Twins edge out the Marlins here thanks to a group of live-armed young pitchers approaching big-league readiness, including Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia and Stephen Gonsalves. Berrios got beat up by Major League hitters in a few stints in the Twins’ rotation in 2016 but dominated in the minors and should compete for a rotation role in spring training. The rest of the opening day staff won’t be anywhere near as exciting, as the Twins will hope for another solid season out of Ervin Santana and bounceback campaigns from the likes of Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson.

27. Cincinnati Reds

The Reds will hope for full health from Homer Bailey after two straight ruined by injury, as the club still owes Bailey $68 million over the next three years. Anthony DeSclafani should settle into his prime as at least a league-average starter, and the Reds have a whole bunch of fairly well-regarded young arms that have mostly been tagged to date at the big-league level. Brandon Finnegan had a solid 2016 despite unimpressive rate stats, and steps forward from any of Finnegan, Cody Reed and Robert Stephenson would give the rebuilding Reds some valuable rotation pieces for the future.

26. Los Angeles Angels

All teams fight the injury bug, but the Angels’ starting staff has been bit particularly hard in recent seasons. Ace Garrett Richards eschewed Tommy John surgery in favor of stem-cell treatment for his torn UCL, and his recovery will go a long way toward determined the quality of the Angels’ staff in 2017. Tyler Skaggs, a former top prospect, showed some positive signs in his late 2016 return to the rotation after the Tommy John procedure that cost him all of 2015. Matt Shoemaker has established himself as a legit mid-rotation guy when he’s healthy and Ricky Nolasco thrived in his late-season stint in Los Angeles.

25. Milwaukee Brewers

Welterweight right-hander Zach Davies might be the best pitcher in the world on a pound-for-pound basis, and the 23-year-old represents the current rotation cog most likely to be part of the rebuilding Brewers’ next good team. Another righty, Junior Guerra, spent six years out of affiliated baseball pitching in Italy, Spain and independent leagues before enjoying a solid rookie season at age 31 in 2016. A group of unspectacular but passable veterans will fill out the Milwaukee rotation until prospects like Josh Hader, Brandon Woodruff and Luis Ortiz are ready.

24. Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles won 89 games and a wild-card berth in 2016 despite a starting rotation that ranked near the American League’s basement in most meaningful categories, then rectified the situation this offseason by bringing back all the exact same dudes. Chris Tillman had a nice season despite pedestrian rate stats and Kevin Gausman enjoyed a great second half, so the best hope is that 24-year-old Dylan Bundy is ready to make good on his long-held but injury-addled prospect pedigree and joins Tillman and Gausman at the front of a rotation fit to keep the O’s offense in games. No one’s here to tell the Baltimore Orioles how to do business, but it really feels like they might have benefited from a few of the moves made by the…

23. Atlanta Braves

The rebuilding Braves have a stable of young arms with reasonably high upside, but after guys like Aaron Blair and Matt Wisler struggled mightily at the big-league level in 2016, Atlanta will open its new ballpark with a sturdy group of newly acquired veterans in the rotation behind 26-year-old stalwart Julio Teheran. And while none of Jaime Garcia, Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey offers the Braves much in the way of long-term upside, they’re all more than adequate options for holding down starting jobs until their eventual replacements force the issue from Class AAA.

22. Kansas City Royals

The Royals ranked lower on an earlier version of this list but leapfrogged a couple teams with the addition of Jason Hammel, a solid back-end starter on the world champion Cubs in 2016. Ian Kennedy quieted doubters in 2016, the first year of a five-year, $70 million contract with Kansas City, and the Royals locked up Danny Duffy to a five-year extension after the lefty’s breakout campaign. The death of Yordano Ventura in a January car accident stunned the Royals’ community and, less importantly, likely necessitated the acquisition of Hammel for depth. Jason Vargas, who missed most of the last two seasons with injuries, and Nate Karns — acquired in an early 2017 trade for Jarrod Dyson — should slot in somewhere.

21. Oakland A’s

Sonny Gray endured a rash of injuries across a woeful 2016 season, but Gray appears to be fully healthy entering spring — he’ll even be pitching in the World Baseball Classic. At 27 and with no history of declining velocity, Gray should bounce back toward the ace-caliber standards of his first few big-league seasons. Behind him, 25-year-old lefty Sean Manaea returns after seeing solid results in his rookie season, and the A’s have a crop of potential starters in their mid-to-late 20s vying to keep prospects like Jharel Cotton and Frankie Montas out of the opening day rotation. One minor concern: If Gray proves himself a frontline starter again, he will become one of the most coveted pitchers on the trade block come July.

20. Philadelphia Phillies

The upcoming season should represent a big step along the Phillies’ path from rebuilding to rebuilt. Jeremy Hellickson, who accepted the club’s qualifying offer over pursuing free agency, will look to mount another solid season. The Phillies added Red Sox castoff Clay Buchholz in December, but the real excitement in the Philadelphia rotation exists in the form of Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velazquez and Aaron Nola, a trio of exciting young arms that saw mixed results but showed enormous potential in the Majors last season.

19. Chicago White Sox

The White Sox still have Jose Quintana, one of baseball’s most underrated frontline starting pitchers and a subject of near-constant trade rumors this offseason. Former first-round pick Carlos Rodon has been about an average big-league starter in his early career, but is only 24 years old and should step forward in 2017. James Shields will get a chance to bounce back after a woeful stint on the south side last season, and more exciting pitchers are on the horizon: This offseason the club added mega- prospects Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Michael Kopech to a stable that already includes former eighth-overall pick Carson Fulmer. None is a lock to open the season in the rotation, but any of Giolito, Lopez and Fulmer could force the issue with an impressive spring. Quintana getting moved would change the White Sox’ standing, naturally.

18. Seattle Mariners

A tough one to place: An optimist could look at Felix Hernandez’s lengthy track record of health and success and expect him to again pitch like an ace in 2017, a pessimist could point to declining fastball velocity and nebulous injury concerns and guess that King Felix, like rotation-mate Hisashi Iwakuma, is in decline. Lefty James Paxton stayed healthy in 2016, posted extremely promising rate stats in 20 big-league starts and appears a breakout candidate at age 28. Yovani Gallardo can’t possibly be as bad as he was for Baltimore last season, and homer-prone lefty Drew Smyly could benefit from a move to spacious Safeco Field.

17. New York Yankees

Masahiro Tanaka’s a legit ace, CC Sabathia appeared to figure out how to get outs with diminished velocity in 2016, and Michael Pineda is a decent back-end starter even if his issues pitching from the stretch continue to prevent him from fully capitalizing on his great fastball-slider combo. The Yanks’ top pitching prospects are a couple of years from the Majors, but they’ve got a whole slew of decent-looking young arms to compete for the back end of their opening-day rotation and enough viable options for GM Brian Cashman to mix and match until he finds the right group.

16. Colorado Rockies

Again: The Rockies’ ERA won’t be pretty in 2017, but their starting staff will likely be a lot better than you’d guess. Mile-high altitude is a sick joke to play on a promising young pitcher, but Colorado appears to have compiled a good collection of dudes apt to keep the high-powered offense in games. By ERA+, which adjusts for ballpark, all of Jon Gray, Chad Bettis, Tyler Chatwood and Tyler Anderson were above-average Major League pitchers in 2016, and all four return this year, with prospect Jeff Hoffman likely to fill out the rotation on opening day or shortly thereafter. The track records aren’t very long and pitching in Colorado brings with it a whole ton of uncertainty, but Gray, especially, has the makings of an ace.

15. Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh pitching coach Ray Searage carries such an incredible reputation that a more nuanced list might rank the Pirates twice: One spot for what projections and logic expect out of the pitchers, and another for whatever heights they might reach under Searage’s tutelage. Instead, they land right in the middle of the pack, with the caveat that they’ll jump into the Top 10 if Drew Hutchison joins the likes of Francisco Liriano, J.A. Happ and Pirates teammate Ivan Nova as successful Pittsburgh reclamation projects. Gerrit Cole battled a ribcage injury last spring and finished 2016 on the shelf with an elbow injury, but will enter spring training on a normal throwing schedule. After two seasons lost to injury, Jameson Taillon returned to health last season and showed some of the promise that once ranked him among the game’s very best pitching prospects. Tyler Glasnow has dominated the high minors despite some control issues, and reining in control issues happens to be Searage’s specialty.

14. Texas Rangers

Yu Darvish hit some bumps on the road back from the Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2015 season, but spent the whole second half of 2016 healthy and striking out opponents at his trademark absurd rate. If Darvish is fully healthy in 2017, he’ll pair with the steadily excellent Cole Hamels for the best 1-2 punch of any group outside this list’s Top 5. It gets dicey fast after that: Martin Perez had a decent 2016 but yielded way too much contact for comfort, and neither A.J. Griffin nor Andrew Cashner inspired much confidence with their performances last season.

13. Arizona Diamondbacks

Zack Greinke played a big role in the Diamondbacks’ disastrous 2016, seeing his ERA jump nearly three full runs in the first season of his six-year, $206.5-million free-agent deal with Arizona. But Greinke’s certainly a far better pitcher than he was last season, and the offseason addition of Taijuan Walker to a mix that already included Robbie Ray, Archie Bradley and Patrick Corbin gives the D-Backs a lot of upside, if not a lot to feel good about in terms of recent performance. It’s hard to guess where Shelby Miller goes from here, but it seems safe to guess he can’t possibly be worse than he was last season.

12. Houston Astros

Dallas Keuchel followed his Cy Young campaign in 2015 with a frustrating 2016 in which he yielded far more hard contact and saw his ERA spike more than two full runs. Uncertainty surrounding Keuchel, who finished the year on the shelf with a shoulder issue, prevents a fairly deep Astros rotation from landing higher on this list. Lance McCullers has shown the makings of an ace whenever he’s been healthy in the Majors, but walked batters at an alarming rate in his 14 outings last season. Collin McHugh endured some rough luck on batted balls last year but makes for a reliable mid-rotation guy, and the Astros have the likes of Joe Musgrove, Francis Martes and David Paulino ready or nearly ready to join the big-league staff.

11. Detroit Tigers

Justin Verlander’s velocity ticked upwards and the 33-year-old enjoyed his best season in four years in 2016, a promising sign for a club that owes him at least $84 million over the next three years. Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer joins Verlander at the front of a Tigers’ rotation with a bunch of potentially good pitchers dogged by question marks. The rotation could prove a strength for Detroit if Jordan Zimmermann can stay healthy and pitch like he did from 2011-2015 and young lefty Daniel Norris can build on the success he had over the final two months of the season. But there are plenty of question marks, and the Tigers can’t boast a lot of depth behind their front four.

10. Tampa Bay Rays

Chris Archer got off to a rough start in 2016 but ironed things out and saw better results in the second half. He fronts a deep rotation of dudes you’ve mostly never heard of, including the solid Jake Odorizzi, young and promising lefty Blake Snell, and Alex Cobb, who was excellent in 2013 and 2014 before missing most of the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery. High-level prospects like Jacob Faria and newcomer Jose De Leon give the Rays plenty of options and plenty of upside.

9. St. Louis Cardinals

Last season was a weird one for the Cardinals’ starting staff: Every guy except Carlos Martinez well underperformed career norms, and St. Louis will need to hope that Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha and Mike Leake fixed whatever ailed them last season. But all those guys were something between decent and excellent as recently as 2015, plus Lance Lynn should be ready for a normal spring training schedule after missing 2016 due to Tommy John surgery. And the Cardinals can boast one of the most exciting pitching prospects in all of baseball in Alex Reyes, an electric 22-year-old who dominated his first 46 big-league innings and could eventually pair with Martinez for a fearsome front-end combo.

8. Toronto Blue Jays

There’s a strong case for moving the Blue Jays up on this list, and only the general lack of longer track records kept their group out of the Top 5. Aaron Sanchez enjoyed a breakout season in his first full year in the Blue Jays’ rotation, Marco Estrada proved his 2015 success in suppressing base hits is a real and apparently repeatable skill, and J.A. Happ built on his late-season 2015 success with a 20-win season and career bests in most categories. Marcus Stroman seems certain to become your favorite player if he can build on a solid 2016. The only things separating the Blue Jays from the teams above them on this list is their lack of a proven, dominant ace and a relatively shallow pool of depth arms behind their slated front five.

7. San Francisco Giants

Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto stack up well against any pair of pitching teammates in baseball: Both look like locks to throw 200 excellent innings for San Francisco in 2017, and Jeff Samardzija appears a safe bet to throw 200 slightly less good but still pretty good innings as well. That type of certainty is rare even in the fronts of the best rotations in baseball. The picture gets a bit murkier thereafter. Matt Moore, if he’s healthy, makes a strong No. 4 starter, but Matt Cain hasn’t had a good season since 2012 and top prospect Tyler Beede likely needs at least a half a year in Class AAA before he can join the big-league rotation.

6. Los Angeles Dodgers

See that guy? That’s Clayton Kershaw. He’s the best pitcher in baseball and it’s not even close. A back injury limited Kershaw to 21 starts and cost him a shot at a historic season in 2016, but he returned in September and started pitching like Clayton Kershaw again, and there’s no good reason to believe he won’t pitch like Clayton Kershaw again in 2017. He’s good enough that he could make a rotation otherwise full of scrubs an above-average one, but the Dodgers will also return Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, and wunderkind Julio Urias behind him.

5. Chicago Cubs

The Cubs’ rotation ranked first on this list last year and spent most of the season proving me right, then — and maybe you’ve heard about this — went on to win the World Series. So why’d they fall to No. 5? Maybe it’s all part of a conspiracy to make people angry and drum up pageviews, or maybe all the teams at the top of this list are extremely close in terms of talent and this site is skeptical the Cubs can maintain such an extraordinarily low batting average on balls in play for a second straight season. They’ll certainly be good, as Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks make a tremendous front three, but the loss of Jason Hammel to free agency hurts them more than it might seem: They’ll try to replace Hammel’s 166 2/3 sturdy innings with some combination of oft-injured castoffs and converted relievers.

4. New York Mets

It’s so easy to envision a way the Mets have the best rotation in baseball in 2017. It’s this way: They all stay healthy. But the first pitches Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler throw in 2017 will also be their first big-league pitches since arm surgery, and it’s so hard to feel confident they’ll all hold up for the course of a full season. Fireballing Norse god Noah Syndergaard should be a Cy Young candidate if he stays healthy, but he, too, is a young pitcher operating under constant risk of arm injury. In Rob Gsellman and Seth Lugo they have some decent depth, but any setbacks among their top guys could make the group look quite a bit thinner.

3. Cleveland Indians

The reigning AL Champs will return the entirety of the rotation that pitched them to within one game of a World Series win in 2016, fronted by former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. Neither Carlos Carrasco nor Danny Salazar has yet thrown 200 innings in a big-league season, but both have the capacity for dominance. Trevor Bauer — now best known as the drone guy — took a big step forward last season and homer-prone control artist Josh Tomlin makes for a very strong No. 5 starter. There aren’t many big upside arms in the high minors for Cleveland, but they’ve got a pretty deep set of viable mid-20s starters in the organization that should provide apt if unexciting insurance in case of injuries.

2. Washington Nationals

The offseason trade of prospects Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez cost the Nats some depth, and a prolonged injury to dominant but brittle Stephen Strasburg could send Washington plummeting down this list. The Nats will work to manage Strasburg’s workload between starts this season in an effort to keep him healthy all year. Ace Max Scherzer comes with far fewer question marks: The 32-year-old righty has made at least 30 starts in each of the last eight seasons and is showing no signs of slowing down. Tanner Roark enjoyed a breakout season at age 29 in 2016, Joe Ross is only 23 and maintains big-time talent, and Gio Gonzalez appears at the very least a safe bet to stay healthy and gobble up league-average innings.

1. Boston Red Sox

It wasn’t quite as easy a choice as putting the Padres in the No. 30 spot, but Boston looks like an easy favorite to have baseball’s best starting staff this season after the offseason addition of Chris Sale. Rick Porcello won the 2016 Cy Young Award and may be only the third best starter in the Red Sox’ opening day rotation, behind Sale and David Price — who got past some weird early-season struggles to pitch like his typically excellent self from July on. Projection systems struggle with knuckleballers like Steven Wright, and Wright — assuming he can get past the shoulder injury that kept him out of the season’s last month — has only just reached the age when knuckleballers often start figuring things out. Drew Pomeranz got his Red Sox career off to a rough start but turned things around over the final two months, and there’s still plenty of time for young pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Henry Owens to figure it out.

(An earlier version of this article called Indians starter Corey Kluber a “two-time Cy Young Award winner.” Kluber has only won one Cy Young Award.)