Robert Creamer

Opinion contributor

Polling shows one of the most decisive factors for Democratic primary voters is which candidate’s the best equipped to defeat President Donald Trump in a general election

They understand that the country cannot afford four more years of Trump — that failure’s not an option, although it’s still a clear possibility.

It’s now increasingly clear that Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts is the Democratic candidate most likely to beat Trump in 2020.

To understand why, take a close look at what really happened in 2016.

The Trump victory didn’t result mainly from a mass exodus of blue-collar Democratic voters to the Republican candidate.

It’s true that 9.8% of voters changed their votes from 2012 to 2016. But only 3.6% of voters moved from President Barack Obama to Trump. More than half of these were offset by the 1.9% who switched from Mitt Romney to Hillary Clinton — leaving a net loss of only 1.7%.

The lion’s share of vote-changers were the 4.3% of the voters who moved from Obama in 2012 to a third-party candidate or to not voting for any presidential candidate in 2016.

Of course, much of the net loss of vote-changers was concentrated in critical electoral states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

The loss of white working-class voters to Trump was definitely a component of Clinton’s defeat. But a greater component was that so many former Obama voters elected not to vote at all or vote for a third-party candidate.

Here's what makes her unique

There are five reasons why Warren is best equipped to deal with these challenges:

►Polls show Warren’s message that the economic system is rigged against ordinary people — and her willingness to unapologetically call for fundamental structural changes in the rules of the economic game — are very attractive to white working-class vote-switchers in the upper Midwest who haven’t had a raise that outstrips inflation in 30 years.

These voters don’t want continuity or stability, they want change. That’s why many switched their vote in 2016. They believed Clinton represented the economic status quo.

Elizabeth Warren's choice:'Medicare for All' purity or a path to beating Trump?

Warren’s call to voters in the most recent debate couldn’t be clearer: “The paths to America’s middle class have gotten a lot smaller and a lot narrower. ... I know what’s broken. I know how to fix it and I’m going to lead the fight to get it done.”

Warren correctly understands that a populist economic message is necessary to move swing voters — not just the base.

That message won’t alienate 2016 vote-switchers who moved from Romney to Clinton. They were motivated mainly by their disgust for Trump’s cultural agenda. That disgust isn’t going away regardless of the Democratic candidate.

Many pundits question whether voters in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania will identify with a Harvard Law professor. They forget that Warren grew up in Oklahoma. The personal stories she tells are the stories of voters raised in places like small-town Iowa, not around Harvard Square. Warren connects with working people because she can talk firsthand about their personal experiences and her own. Her story — her University of Houston education and her grit and tenacity to succeed — inspires them.

►Warren not only inspires white working-class voters, she inspires people of all sorts, particularly young people.

She’s the candidate best equipped to deal with the most critical factor that gave us Trump: low turnout. She’ll inspire people to vote because they’re inspired by people who stand tall for their beliefs and are willing to fight for them. Voters are inspired by her passion, her grasp of the problems they face, her ability to formulate clear, understandable solutions and her willingness to stand up for progressive values.

►In 2020, being a woman is a political asset. It promises to be the year that women strike back.

Women are overwhelmingly disgusted by Trump. They’re disgusted by his sexism, lack of empathy, macho blustering and crude disrespectful language. They’re disgusted when they see children ripped from mothers’ arms at the border. They’re furious that he’s placing anti-abortion justices on the Supreme Court.

Women are mobilized like never before in American politics. A woman heading the ticket gives American women one more reason to work their hearts out and turn out in record numbers next fall.

►Warren and her team have demonstrated that they know how to organize a winning campaign. Her campaign has crafted a strategy that has lifted her consistently in the polls.

Her team knows how to execute. They refuse to leave any stone unturned, understanding that showing up is half of politics, and they know how to communicate respect for voters. The campaign’s loaded with inspired, fired-up organizers and it’s exciting and fun. Those are qualities of winning campaigns.

►Finally, voters don’t commit to candidates just because they think they’re smart or make good speeches. They certainly don’t evaluate candidates simply by comparing lists of issue positions.

Voters commit themselves to candidates the same way people fall in love: They commit to candidates who make them feel good about themselves. That happens when candidates have “charisma.”

What goes into charisma?

Experience shows there are four elements that make a candidate charismatic: The candidate must be warm. She must be approachable and communicate empathy. Second, she must have presence, and be “in the moment” at all times — laser-focused on the people she's with.

The woman with a strategy:Elizabeth Warren knows what we're facing and she has plans, from Fox News to Facebook

Third, she must exude true self-confidence — the kind that comes from overcoming ordinary self-doubts that pop up like devils in practically everyone.

Finally, the candidate must be inspiring. That means making people feel they’re part of something bigger than themselves, but also that they can each play a truly significant role in achieving that larger goal.

Warren does all of these.

For all those reasons, Elizabeth Warren is our best choice to defeat Trump. She’s the most likely Democratic candidate to be the next U.S. president.

Robert Creamer, a partner at Democracy Partners, has been a political organizer and strategist for five decades and was consultant in the last three Democratic presidential campaigns. He is the author of "Listen to Your Mother: Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win." Follow him on Twitter @rbcreamer