By all accounts, Tesla delivered every single vehicle they possibly could before the federal EV tax credit was cut in half at the new year. Tesla even kept a number of delivery locations open until midnight on New Year’s eve in the event that anyone wanted to make a last minute purchase.

US $7500 tax credit drops in half at midnight! Following Tesla stores are open until then https://t.co/F9saXNhnHP — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 31, 2018

Informed customers knew that the tax credit was being halved and therefore anyone in the US who was planning on buying a Tesla vehicle in the near future likely pulled forward their purchase prior to the turn of the new year. We had therefore expected that deliveries would mostly cease at the beginning of Q1. The continued delivery levels likely point to a sustained demand and new orders within the US, even without the full benefits of the EV credit.

Regardless of current delivery levels, we still expect that US deliveries will be heavily weighted toward the backend of the quarter. Given long transit times, Tesla is currently focused on producing and shipping Model 3s to Europe and China. We expect that renewed attention to US deliveries will only begin again in earnest in March when cars will no longer be able to be produced in time for delivery in international markets. We could see 40k+ US Model 3 deliveries in Q1 if Tesla can maintain its current US delivery rate and continue its pattern of doing a big push in the final month of the quarter (we believe 30k Model 3s were delivered in December alone). The remainder of Model 3 deliveries will be comprised of European and Chinese markets. Current sell side expectations estimate WW Model 3 deliveries of 64k in Q1.