YOUR BEST SHOT

GOOD LUCK. FIRST QUESTION: WHERE WERE YOU BORN?

Probability of reaching the N.B.A. by household income of birth county.

POOREST 20% OF COUNTIES

SECOND 20%

MIDDLE 20%

FOURTH 20%

RICHEST 20%

42 players per million people

31

37

63

67

BLACK MALES

1 player per million people

1

2

3

3

WHITE MALES

NEXT (OBVIOUSLY): HOW TALL ARE YOU?

Probability of making it to the N.B.A. among all American males.

HEIGHT:

PROBABILITY:

ROUGH EQUIVALENT:

You versus the population of Dallas.

SHORTER THAN 6 FEET

1.2 million

1 in

Capacity of the University of Texas football stadium.

6' 0" TO 6' 3"

100,000

1 in

Attendance at the first U.S. Beatles concert.

6' 4” TO 6' 7"

8,000

1 in

Capacity of some New York subway cars.

6' 8" TO 6' 11"

200

1 in

A modest dinner party.

7 FEET OR TALLER

7

1 in

YOUR BEST SHOT

FINALLY: WHAT ARE YOUR FAMILY TRAITS?

Having teenage moms or unique names doesn’t help. Percent of black N.B.A. players versus percent of all black males, born in the 1980s, who were:

BLACK N.B.A. PLAYERS

BLACK MALE POPULATION

41 16 7 7

%

60 25 11 13

%

Born out of wedlock Born to mothers under age 20 Born to mothers under age 18 Given a unique name (estimates)