2. The UK’s population is getting older – but it’s not the same in all areas of the UK

The population in 2016 was at its largest ever, at 65.6 million and projected to reach 74 million by 2039. While it is growing, improvements in healthcare and lifestyles mean the population is getting older; in 2016 in the UK, 18% of people were aged 65 and over, and 2.4% were aged 85 and over.

As a result of the ageing population the old age dependency ratio (OADR) is increasing. The OADR is the number of people over 65 years old for every 1,000 people aged between 16 and 64 years old – in mid-2016 the UK’s OADR was 285. It is a useful measure to understand how the balance in the population will change, particularly when planning for the needs of the different age groups.

Figure 1 shows different aspects of ageing for local authorities in the UK and compares how this changes every 10 years between 1996 and 2036. Numbers for 1996 to 2016 are based on population estimates, while numbers for 2026 and 2036 are based on population projections.

Figure 1: UK population aged 65 and over, aged 85 and over and the old age dependency ratio by local authority, 1996 to 2036

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We are aware there were some technical errors with the interactives (affecting Wales and Northern Ireland), these have been updated and are correct as of midday on 25 July 2017.

Knowing previous and projected proportions of the older age groups is interesting and useful for planning care and health provisions.

Aside from London only a few other local authorities have seen small changes in the proportion of people over 65 between 1996 and 2036. In 1996, only a handful of areas had over 25% of their local population aged 65 and over, most of these being in southern regions of the UK. By 2036, over half of local authorities are projected to have 25% or more of their local population aged 65 and over, again with many of the highest authorities being in southern England. In mid-2016 it was estimated that West Somerset was the highest at 33.3% and Tower Hamlets was the lowest at 6.0%.

When we consider those who reach over 85 years old, the proportion of this population is smaller. In 1996 there were no local authorities with more than 3% of their population aged 85 and over. In 2006, most authorities had 2% to 3% of their local population aged 85 and over. In 2016 over half of local authorities had over 3% of their population aged 85 and over. This is projected to continue increasing, with very few authorities below 3% in 2026 and below 4% in 2036. Southern authorities including Rother, East Devon and Dorset have the highest proportions, while London Boroughs such as Tower Hamlets, Islington and Hackney are consistently among the lowest with a very old population.

Between 1996 and 2016 areas with higher proportions of people aged over 65 and aged over 85 were generally found close to coastal areas throughout the UK. Projections suggest this will change and more inland areas will have higher proportions of older people too, although London and surrounding areas will remain amongst the lowest.

Similar to the proportions of older people, the OADR has been increasing since 1996 and is projected to continue increasing. In 2016 only 11 local authorities had an OADR above 500; this is projected to increase to 62 by 2026 and 157 by 2036. By 2036 some authorities’ population aged 65 and over are expected to nearly match that of those aged 16 to 64, with West Somerset projected to have an OADR of 928.

The ageing population of the UK is influenced by many factors including mortality, fertility, health provisions and lifestyles.

The age distribution of the UK population is changing; Table 1 shows how this is changing for different age groups; children (aged 0 to 15 years), people who are most likely to be working (aged 16 to 64 years) and people most likely to be retired (aged 65 and over).

Table 1: Age distribution of the UK population, 1976 to 2046 (projected) 0 to 15 years (%) 16 to 64 years (%) Aged 65 and over (%) UK population 1976 24.5 61.2 14.2 56,216,121 1986 20.5 64.1 15.4 56,683,835 1996 20.7 63.5 15.9 58,164,374 2006 19.2 64.9 15.9 60,827,067 2016 18.9 63.1 18.0 65,648,054 2026 18.8 60.7 20.5 69,843,515 2036 18.0 58.2 23.9 73,360,907 2046 17.7 57.7 24.7 76,342,235 Source: Office for National Statistics Notes: 1. Population estimates data are used for 1996 to 2016, while 2014-based population projections are used for 2026 and 2036. Download this table Table 1: Age distribution of the UK population, 1976 to 2046 (projected) .xls

The proportion of children in the UK population has declined from over 24.5% in 1976 to 18.9% in 2016. This proportion is projected to decline even further in future years.

The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 years has remained relatively stable over the last 40 years. Over the last 10 years it has started to decline and is projected to decline further in future years. This is a result of the growth in the population aged 65 and over.

Between 1976 and 2016 there was a 3.8 percentage point increase in the proportion of people aged 65 and over. It is projected to continue to grow to nearly a quarter of the population by 2046.

Life expectancy over the last few decades has been steadily increasing. Females born in 2015 can expect to live 82.8 years from birth, 4 years more than females born in 1991. Males have seen a greater increase in life expectancy of 5.7 years, from 73.4 years for males born in 1991 to 79.1 years for males born in 2015. Life expectancy in the UK is also projected to continue increasing; with life expectancy at birth for females projected to be 85.1 years by 2026 and 86.6 years by 2036. Males are also projected to live longer, increasing to 82.1 years by 2026 and 83.7 years by 2036.

Improved healthcare and lifestyles, especially for those aged 65 and over, is the main reason for the increase in life expectancy.