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The Calgary Flames’ Cinderella 2014-15 season wasn’t merely unexpected according to analysts and pundits; it was a year so improbable it was a near statistic impossibility.

The Flames possession (or corsi) rate this season was just 44.3%, good for third worst in the NHL, ahead of only Toronto (42.7%) and Buffalo (36.0%). The next worst playoff team by this metric is the Montreal Canadiens (48.6%) and they had the benefit of a Vezina (and Hart) calibre season from goaltender Carey Price.

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Corsi is a proxy for offensive zone puck possession at even strength and generally a very good predictor of long-term success in the NHL. For example, since 2005-06, 77% of the teams with a corsi rate of 50% or better have made the playoffs. In general, the lower a team’s corsi, the lower their chances of making the post-season.

In fact, only four teams over that time period (10 seasons) with a possession rate comparable to the Flames have made it past the regular season. That translates to a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs for clubs with a corsi rate of 45% or less.