Empirical Validation of the Exponential Decay for Surplus CO 2

ABSTRACT

Surplus CO2 is naturally removed from the atmosphere by natural sinks at a rate proportional to the surplus CO2 concentration, on the multi-decadal scale. This result, analytically derived in (Halperin, Simple Equation of Multi-Decadal Atmospheric Carbon Concentration Change, 2015) is verified here by applying it to the pre-1958 data, which was not used in the original paper. The excellent match confirms the validity of the theoretical result. This paper also presents a more accurate estimate of the half-life of the surplus CO2 concentration: 30-35 years. The correspondent equilibrium concentration is estimated to be in the range of 267-285 ppm (larger equilibrium concentrations correspond to lower half-lives). Also, the paper finds that if the natural sink rate did change in the past 150 years, it increased at least during the period prior to 1958. The paper uses CO2 emissions data, corrected for some inaccuracies, introduced since 1992.

Full Article: defyccc.com/docs/se2016/MDACC-Halperin-2016.pdf



Supporting Material (zip file): defyccc.com/docs/se2016/MDACC-Halperin-2016-SI.zip



Cite as:

Halperin Ari, 2016. Empirical Validation of Exponential Decay for Surplus CO2, defyccc.com, defyccc.com/se2016

Article’s History

Originally published on March 24, 2016.

Archived on March 24, 2016:

This page: http://www.webcitation.org/6gFSUT2ae

Full Article (PDF): http://www.webcitation.org/6gFSl0pYm

Supporting Material (ZIP): http://www.webcitation.org/6gFSrmS9d



AGU Index Terms



1600 GLOBAL CHANGE

…. 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)

…. 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)

…. 1620 Climate dynamics (0429, 3309)

…. 1631 Land/atmosphere interactions (1218, 1843, 3322)

…. 1635 Oceans (1616, 3305, 4215, 4513)



3300 ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES

…. 3305 Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)

…. 3309 Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408)

…. 3322 Land/atmosphere interactions (1218, 1631, 1843, 4301)

…. 3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312, 4301, 4504)



0400 BIOGEOSCIENCES

…. 0426 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions (0315)

…. 0428 Carbon cycling (4806)

…. 4800 OCEANOGRAPHY: BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL (0460)

…. 4806 Carbon cycling (0428)

…. 4928 Global climate models (1626, 3337)



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