Growing gaps in US, European interests as Tillerson crosses the Atlantic

Kerry Boyd Anderson

The US secretary of state has a difficult task in trying to strengthen ties between the US and Europe as their interests increasingly begin to separate. Kerry Boyd Anderson

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In preparation for a trip to Europe this week, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson gave a speech on Nov. 28 at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC, intended to reassure European allies rattled by President Donald Trump’s behavior and policies. The next day, Trump once again highlighted Tillerson’s main problem: The president regularly undermines his chief diplomat.On Nov. 29, Trump retweeted several videos posted by a far-right British activist that allegedly show Muslims using violence. UK Prime Minister Theresa May criticized Trump’s retweets, and he responded by telling her: “Don’t focus on me, focus on the destructive Radical Islamic Terrorism that is taking place within the United Kingdom.” The incident has created a diplomatic row between the two close allies.This is not the first time Trump has complicated Tillerson’s job. In his speech, Tillerson was very critical of Russia, saying Moscow is “launching cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns to undermine free elections” — a significant concern for Europeans.But his critiques sound somewhat hollow when Trump has chosen to believe Russian President Vladimir Putin’s denials of interference over the assessments of his own intelligence community (which has stated with “high confidence” that a Russian influence campaign promoted Trump in the election).Tillerson reaffirmed the US commitment to NATO’s mutual defense clause. But US-European relations remain marred by Trump’s comments as a presidential candidate questioning that commitment, and his initial reluctance as president to reaffirm it.Tillerson’s speech laying out US policy on relations with Europe highlighted the increasing divergence of interests between many European leaders — especially in Western Europe — and the Trump administration. For example, addressing climate change is a top priority for European leaders; Tillerson did not mention climate change once in his speech, and European leaders remain dismayed that Trump appears committed to pulling out of the Paris climate accord.In another example, one of Europe’s greatest concerns is mass migration from the Middle East and Africa. While discussing counterterrorism cooperation and efforts to resolve the Syrian conflict, Tillerson emphasized that Europe needs to do more on its own to address its migration concerns.There is also a big gap between the US and its European allies regarding Iran. Facing the strong possibility that soon Washington will effectively pull out of the nuclear deal, Tillerson argued that on Iran, “there is actually much more that binds the United States and Europe together than drives us apart.” He said the US is focused on “addressing the totality of the Iranian threat,” and asked “our European partners to join us in standing up to all of Iran’s malign behavior.”But most European leaders believe that the deal is working well at preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. While some of them have expressed openness to addressing other concerns, such as Iran’s ballistic missile program, they see any such efforts as being additional to the nuclear deal, not a replacement or revision of it. During his visit, Tillerson is likely to encounter deep European frustration with US policy on the deal.His speech noted some areas of shared interest between the US and Europe, but even in these cases it is complicated. For example, there is European interest in increasing liquefied natural gas imports from the US, but there are challenges over price and infrastructure, and significant disagreements between Washington and some European countries — notably Germany — on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. In Afghanistan, the allies retain a mutual interest in opposing extremists, but are divided over issues such as troop numbers.Similar to Trump’s September speech to the UN, Tillerson’s was heavily peppered with the words “sovereign” and “sovereignty.” He emphasized that Europeans need to do more to defend themselves, adopting a lecturing tone that is unlikely to win friends in Europe, even if some Europeans agree.He affirmed that “the United States will continue to maintain our guarantees against a catastrophic failure of security in the region,” but said: “The nations of Europe must accept greater responsibility for their own security challenges.”While emphasizing sovereignty and independence, Tillerson also spoke of shared Western values. But he used vague terms, such as “certain self-evident truths,” without clearly stating what these shared values are.At a time when there is an intense debate raging in the US and Europe over what values should define their cultures — and with many Europeans fearing that Trump has not only abandoned the traditional US role of defending liberal democratic values, but is actively undermining them — Tillerson’s vague mention of ideals will not feel very reassuring.He has a difficult task in trying to strengthen ties between the US and Europe when there are growing gaps between transatlantic interests, and much uncertainty within Europe about its future.Adding to the difficulty is Trump’s deep unpopularity in Europe. In June, a poll by the Pew Research Center found that Western Europeans’ confidence in him dropped by a range of 43 (Italy) to 83 (Sweden) percentage points compared to former President Barack Obama, with significant declines even in Eastern European countries (except Russia).Of course, the US and European countries must each pursue their own interests. Transatlantic cooperation has long proven useful in pursuing mutual goals. Those relations are growing more brittle, and Tillerson’s speech and upcoming trip to Europe are unlikely to strengthen them.• Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 14 years’ experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risks. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica, and managing editor of Arms Control Today. Twitter: @KBAresearch