After last week’s high court Brexit ruling, bookies have slashed the odds of a general election next year. The logic behind this is that such a move would give Theresa May a mandate she currently lacks to press ahead with article 50 on her own terms. Without it – now the judges have decided parliament must give its assent before the government can formally trigger Brexit – she potentially faces months of delaying tactics by MPs who backed remain and who outnumber leavers in parliament.

With the Conservatives currently on average 14 percentage points ahead of Labour in the polls, there is a clear incentive for May to go to the people; at 43%, the Tories’ current average rating is as much as nine points above where it was shortly before the EU referendum on 23 June. An early election would seem to give May every opportunity to increase her personal authority and that of her government.

But perhaps it is time to stand back. Would an election early next year (assuming the obstacles to such a ballot created by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act could be overcome) necessarily make it significantly easier for May to secure parliament’s support for her approach to Brexit?

For a start, we should remember that it is quite difficult for any party to win an overall majority these days. Scotland is now largely barren territory for the Conservatives and Labour, and there is little sign that the electoral tide that enabled the SNP almost to sweep the board there in May 2015 has significantly receded. A majority has to be forged from within England and Wales alone.

Indeed, it took a seven-point lead over Labour just to deliver the Conservatives’ narrow 12-seat Commons majority last year. Even the 14-point lead May now has could still produce no more than a 76-seat majority – more than comfortable, it is true, but well short of a landslide.

There is, though, no guarantee that the current lead will be sustained through to next year. Part of it is down to the prime minister’s honeymoon. All honeymoons eventually come to an end.

Meanwhile, of course, the reason the government’s 12-seat majority is seen as too small is because of the continuing divisions on Europe inside the Conservative party. At present these divisions are being glossed over by the glue of ambiguity. But May could not call an election about Brexit without being more specific about what she thinks Brexit should mean. Consequently, the fissures inside the Conservative party could become exposed to public view. And divided governments are not an electorally attractive sight – even if they are facing a divided opposition.

Moreover, those differences over Europe are also evident among Conservative voters. Much of the Conservative advance in the polls since May became prime minister has come at the expense of Ukip. Although Labour support has dropped a couple of points since June, Ukip support is down by five points. Around one in five of those who voted Ukip in May 2015 now say they would back the Conservatives, three times as many as in June.

If these ex-Ukip voters gain the impression that May is not on course to deliver the kind of Brexit they want, they may well switch back to Ukip. True, Ukip has leadership problems of its own. But nothing would seem better designed to heal some of its wounds than an opportunity to fight an election in which Europe is the central issue.

At the same time, May has to bear in mind that at least one in three of those who currently say they support the Conservatives voted in June to remain in the EU. They could take fright if they come to fear the prime minister wants a hard Brexit.

Of course, these pro-remain Conservatives might feel Labour is an unattractive alternative. However, the relatively strong Liberal Democrat performance in recent local byelections as well as in the Witney parliamentary contest suggests that, in traditional Lib Dem areas at least, voters are beginning to put aside their disapproval of the party’s record in the coalition. So May could have trouble defending those gains from the Liberal Democrats that were vital to David Cameron’s success last year.

So long as Labour is weak in the polls, the prospect of an early election is always going to appear tempting in Tory eyes. However, May could end up with a markedly less successful outcome than current polling suggests. But, of course, if she does find herself suffering significant defeats in parliament, she may not have much choice.