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The fact is, the U.S. dollar has been sinking against almost every major currency. The U.S. dollar index, which measures against a basket of currencies, has dropped by 9.5 per cent so far this year, including a 3.8-per-cent drop in the last two months. In 2017, the U.S. dollar has lost ground to the Russian ruble (+1.2 per cent against the greenback), the Chinese yuan (+3.3 per cent), the Japanese yen (+6 per cent), the Indian rupee (+6.7 per cent), and even the pound of Great Britain (+7.2 per cent), where economic growth is at its weakest since 2012 and Brexit uncertainty reigns. Mexico, by the way, has seen its peso rise by 16 per cent against the U.S. dollar, despite its economy being projected to grow by less than two per cent this year.

That is telling. Between Nov. 9, 2016 and mid-January, it fell against the greenback by nearly 17 per cent, as Trump pounded his message of protectionism, tariffs and a big, beautiful wall between the U.S. and Mexico. By and large, however, he has made “good” on none of those promises, at least not in any way that seems likely to seriously derail the Mexican economy or its place within the free trade zone. If forex traders were betting on another peso crisis, they got nada.

Trump’s brand of America First economics, if he ever actually followed through on it, would not just punish foreign currencies, but pump up the greenback. Yet it has failed to materialize. With the exception of a tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, which could well have been expected from a Democratic administration anyway, the administration is far less protectionist in action than it has been in word. We’ve seen none of the 35- (or 45-, or whatever) per-cent tariffs on foreign imports that Trump threatened; no trade war with China; no border adjustment tax. NAFTA is being renegotiated, not torn up. On trade, the U.S. has been walking loudly, and carrying a little stick.