Labor could win between 47 and 51 seats in Victoria’s parliament if the polls are on the money a week out from election day.

The Coalition won government with 45 of a possible 88 seats in 2010, a tight victory that hurt when Liberal MP Geoff Shaw quit the party.

A Herald Sun/Galaxy poll released on Friday predicted a 52% to 48% lead for Labor on a two-party-preferred basis. A Morgan poll predicted 55-45 in Labor’s favour.

The election calculator of the ABC election analyst, Antony Green, shows that a 52% to 48% split would win Labor 47 seats, the Coalition 38, and the Greens three.

With a 55% to 45% two-party-preferred vote, Labor would win 51 seats, the Coalition 34, and the Greens three.

The pollster Gary Morgan said although the two major parties are almost level on primary vote – with the ALP on 35.5% to the Coalition’s 35% – an expected high Greens primary vote of 19.5% would ensure a strong flow of preferences to Labor.

Victorians vote on 29 November.