Only 25 percent disapprove of Carlos Curbelo's opponent compared to 35 percent for Curbelo — a sign, says Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, that Curbelo is in trouble in Florida’s 26th Congressional District. | Alex Wong/Getty Images Curbelo almost tied with challenger in tough congressional seat for GOP

MIAMI — One of the nation’s most endangered Republican members of Congress, Carlos Curbelo, is nearly tied with his Democratic rival in a new poll that shows the GOP is struggling in Florida’s southernmost seat.

Curbelo’s 46-45 percent lead over Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is well within the 4-point error margin for the Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey of the Hispanic-heavy Miami district, where President Donald Trump is unpopular. The poll of 625 likely voters was conducted for Telemundo 51.


With 43 percent having a favorable impression of him, Curbelo is better-liked than Mucarsel-Powell, who has a 34 percent favorable rating. But only 25 percent disapprove of her compared to 35 percent for Curbelo — a sign, says Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, that Curbelo is in trouble in Florida’s 26th Congressional District.

“His negatives are higher than Powell’s and you got a sense that this is real borderline for him,” Coker said. “A 46-45 poll for an incumbent isn’t good. I wouldn’t be sleeping at night if I were him.”

The district has one of the highest concentrations of Hispanic voters in Florida, at 63 percent. And Curbelo is faring better than the Republicans at the top of the ticket in the poll.

Gov. Rick Scott trails Sen. Bill Nelson by 8 points in the U.S. Senate race in the district, and Ron DeSantis is losing to Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum by 7 points in the gubernatorial contest.

The district, which stretches from the Miami area to Key West, has swung back and forth between the parties. Curbelo won the seat in 2016 even as Trump lost it by about 16 points to Hillary Clinton. For a Republican, Curbelo has been an outspoken critic of the president. Still, he has sided with policies supported by the president far more often than not.

Trump’s immigration policies have affected the district, which has a detention center in Homestead where some children separated from their parents have been housed.

In the poll, 57 percent said they disapproved of Trump’s immigration policies and only 35 percent said they approved. One of Trump’s signature accomplishments, which Republicans thought would help them in the midterms — the mammoth 2017 tax cut that Curbelo voted for — isn’t having much positive effect in the district, where 31 percent said they have benefited and 48 percent said they have not. Also, more people disfavor Trump (46 percent) than favor him (41 percent).

And while Trump is sounding the alarm about the costs of “Medicare for All” — backed vocally by Gillum — the poll shows the proposal is popular in the district by 63-29 percent.

Still, 44 percent feel more confident about the economy, only 25 percent feel less confident, and 28 percent feel the same about it. And a majority of 54 percent say Trump should not be impeached; 39 percent say he should.

As with another Mason-Dixon poll conducted in the adjoining 27th Congressional District, the survey of Curbelo’s district shows a clear split between voters of Cuban descent and non-Cuban Hispanic voters, such as Colombians, Venezuelans, Dominicans, Puerto Ricans and Hondurans.

Curbelo has a 52-point lead over Mucarsel-Powell among Cuban voters, but she has a 37-point lead with non-Cuban Hispanics. In the governor’s race, DeSantis leads among Cuban voters by 42 points but Gillum is ahead with non-Cuban Hispanics by 50 points. And in the Senate race, Scott is ahead by 48 points with Cubans and Nelson leads by 44 points among non-Cuban Hispanics.

