Huge increase in number of voters registered in Arizona as midterm election nears

Rachel Leingang | The Republic | azcentral.com

The number of people newly registered to vote in Arizona this year is more than double that of the last midterm election year, which could signal a higher turnout to come in November, new figures from the Secretary of State's Office show.

And the youngest voting demographic, those aged 18 to 24, has more new voters registered than all other age groups since Jan. 1 — and possibly more than their cohort in 2016, a presidential election year.

But, one expert said, the big increase in registrations likely won't move the needle massively in November.

"I believe changes in voter turnout and demography in the state of Arizona are incremental, and we will see an incremental shift in voter turnout," said Paul Bentz, vice president of research and strategy for consulting firm HighGround.

And, while more new Democrats registered this year than Republicans, GOP voters still make up the largest bloc in Arizona, followed closely behind by independent voters.

More of these new voters registered as independents rather than declaring themselves as Democrats or Republicans.

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The increase in registration could stem from the Trump presidency and other social movements, as well as news events like #MeToo, #RedForEd and the Parkland, Florida, school shooting.

Databases of voter-registration numbers from the Arizona Secretary of State's Office show nearly 314,000 new registrations in 2018 by the Oct. 9 deadline for November's election. A couple thousand more people registered in the days since the deadline.

More than 5,000 new voters registered on Sept. 25 alone, which was National Voter Registration Day. Several groups held voter-registration events that day, including 16 campuses in the Phoenix Union High School District.

Here's how that compares to past years:

In all of 2014, about 153,000 people registered who are still active voters. Including voters who registered in 2014 but are now inactive, that number increases to about 182,000.

In all of 2016, about 389,000 people registered who are still active. In total, 438,000 new voters registered that year, including those who have since become inactive.

For those aged 18-24, more than 108,000 registered this year so far. In 2016, 106,000 new voters aged 18-24 registered who are still active. Comparing the two numbers isn't quite apples to apples, as figures including inactive voters from 2016 aren't available.

The total number of voters statewide is about 3.7 million now. The total number of voters increased about 134,000 since the 2016 election.

One Arizona is partly behind growth

The One Arizona coalition, made up of groups such as Mi Familia Vota, the Arizona Center for Empowerment, CAIR AZ, the Arizona Advocacy Network and many others, registered 190,000 new voters this year, up from 154,000 in 2016, the group said.

That includes more than 20,000 young voters registered by NextGen America, a national group that's targeting 11 states for voter registration and is financed by San Francisco billionaire Tom Steyer.

Some also have credited Taylor Swift with inspiring young voters to register after she posted about her political views on Instagram. Rihanna made a similar appeal to her nearly 90 million followers on Twitter.

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Montserrat Arredondo, the director of One Arizona, said the group expanded its operations to include more partners in Tucson, Yuma and Pinal County. Before, the group's presence was mostly in Maricopa County, with a small presence in Tucson.

Arredondo said the #RedForEd teacher walkout helped galvanize some voters. They didn't always know their state representatives, but they knew what was happening when teachers walked out of classrooms and to the Capitol.

"It was something that everybody was paying attention to," she said.

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Registered, but will they actually vote?

Now, One Arizona is working to make sure the new voters they registered come out to vote. They are sending text messages, pointing people to websites with information, answering questions about the voting process and canvassing in areas with high concentrations of new voters, Arredondo said.

Arredondo said One Arizona, whose mission is to "improve the lives of Latinos, young people and single women by building a culture of civic participation," registered a diverse group of people and hopes to see those voices reflected in November.

"Our big argument is that if more people are voting, then more people can and will be represented," she said.

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Bentz, of HighGround, said the increase in voter registration could translate to slightly higher turnout in the general election, though likely not a massive swing.

Bentz said he expects to see a higher turnout than in 2014 (which was the lowest turnout since 1998, according to the Secretary of State’s Office), but nothing approaching the turnout level of 74 percent seen in 2016.

This year’s primary election saw a record-breaking turnout of 33 percent. In the past 20 years, the highest general-election turnout in a midterm was 60 percent in 2006.

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There is increased enthusiasm this year, Bentz said, coming from Trump’s election and other movements like #MeToo, and there are some competitive races to watch, like the U.S. Senate. But, in general, he thinks changes in voter turnout and demography will be incremental.

“I don’t think we are going to see massive or dramatic changes in the face of the electorate this cycle,” Bentz said.

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