"Singh needs to prevent Trudeau and Scheer from polarizing a culture war. Singh has developed a double-skewering narrative, calling Liberal indifference about economic anxiety a fuel for Conservative exclusion. He can’t let up on it."

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh sees the opening. His challenge, before summer, is to climb through it and make it a three-way race.

The Trudeau Liberals dragged out the Burnaby South byelection, pinning the seatless NDP leader on the west coast as long as possible — at 164 days from seat vacancy to byelection vote, the longest a Prime Minister has ever blocked an opposition leader. Singh’s support eroded, dropping the NDP to about 13 per cent.

But Singh made opportunity from necessity, building Vancouver-area networks. Coming out of the byelection, his NDP has continuing BC support. Premier John Horgan’s popular NDP government helps.

With the byelection done, Singh quickly pivoted to Quebec. He appointed MP Alexandre Boulerice as his new deputy, boosted new Montreal candidate Nima Machouf (who holds a strong Quebec Solidaire connection), and met Premier François Legault.

And since winning, three recent polls — IPSOS, Angus Reid and Nanos — show a significant rebound. A Quebec recovery may be underway — while IPSOS still puts NDP’s Quebec support at 12 per cent, both Angus Reid and Nanos put it at 18. Angus Reid shows Singh’s NDP leading in the city of Vancouver. And nationally, NDP support is pegged at 21, 17 and 20 per cent, respectively.

Written off only weeks ago, Singh’s NDP is back in business. But no cork-popping: before summer Singh needs to hit the next level — 25 per cent — to say it’s a three-way race.

He has opportunities. The SNC-Lavalin scandal has set the Liberal house afire — and the burnline couldn’t be better for him. The scandal shows Trudeau Liberals doing just about anything to aid powerful corporate friends. And it exposes the pretense of Liberal identity politics — a clever play to use appropriated identities as cloaks over same-old Liberal politics.

Quebec political realignment may help. The Parti Quebecois, which took the Quebec left in a cultural-nationalist direction, is being edged out by Quebec Solidaire, which has helpful NDP policy overlaps. The QS, in a policy switch last weekend, will oppose the CAQ bill on religious symbols, arguing secularism is for institutions, not individuals. Now, on this sensitive issue, the federal NDP position is backed by a party inside the Quebec National Assembly — no longer a foreign intervention from outside Quebec’s cultural debates.

Climate change voters are an opportunity. Doing a bit more than climate do-nothings isn’t working. Canada, at the end of 2018, was further from carbon targets than in 2017. Canada needs a bold federal Green New Deal that partners with provinces to decarbonize. To make buildings more efficient. To shift to electricity-powered vehicles. To expand and operate transit. To end coal burning — still a mainstay in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia — and build clean energy production.

But Singh also faces challenges — particularly to gain ground on nominations and get supporters to open their wallets. First quarter fundraising results come soon. The past can’t be changed, but the second quarter needs to show bounce.

He needs more signature policies. He’s announced a plan to build 500,000 affordable housing units. He pledged to reverse a Liberal tax cut that lets the ultra-wealthy pay tax on only half their capital gains income — even from the largest fortunes. Monday he returned to pharmacare. Singh needs a full suite of actions focused on affordability.

He needs the key that unlocks Liberal Fortress Toronto. He knows what it looks like — trace the seats the Ontario NDP took last year in while winning the popular vote in Toronto and Brampton. To some, Toronto is a notoriously self-centred city of affluence. But in the 31 seats of Brampton and Toronto, all Liberal held, are millions of voters frustrated with low wages, high costs, bad transit and provincial cuts.

And Singh needs to prevent Trudeau and Scheer from polarizing a culture war. Singh has developed a double-skewering narrative, calling Liberal indifference about economic anxiety a fuel for Conservative exclusion. He can’t let up on it.

Singh’s got the opening. If by summer his NDP can climb to 25 per cent, then the game really is on.

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