Texas was the big winner when the early results from the 2010 Census were announced Tuesday, growing more than twice as fast as the nation as a whole over the past decade and gaining four congressional seats as a result.

Florida gained two seats, and six other states gained one.

All of the growth was in the South and western United States, continuing a decades-long shift that is slowly draining political clout from the Northeast and Midwest.

"Typically, we think of political power in the Northeast or the upper Midwest, and you saw states like Illinois, New York and New Jersey just losing (seats) right and left," said Renee Cross, associate director of the Hobby Center for Public Policy at the University of Houston. "All those gains came to us."

In all, 10 states lost congressional seats; New York and Ohio each lost two, and the others lost one.

The national population grew to 308.7 million, up 9.7 percent from the 2000 Census, the second-lowest rate of growth in a century.

The Texas population surged 20.6 percent, to 25.1 million.

Gov. Rick Perry trumpeted Texas' growth as a vindication of the state's low taxes, "reasonable regulations and fair legal climate."

Most of Texas' population growth is among Hispanics, and the Voting Rights Act will require that the additional seats reflect their growing numbers.

The resulting scramble is bound to be raucous and likely to end up in court.

"Now that the Justice Department is under Democratic control, greater scrutiny will be given to how they draw those lines," said Franklin Jones, a political scientist at Texas Southern University.

Several states already are challenging provisions of the Voting Rights Act, and he said more may follow.

It is too early to say where the new Texas seats will be located, but most observers predict they will be split — perhaps two drawn to help Republican candidates and two in predominantly Hispanic areas that may be more friendly to Democrats.

Rep. Lamar Smith, R-San Antonio, the congressional point person on redistricting, said he wouldn't be surprised to see a new Hispanic seat in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and a Republican seat in west Harris County.

Other speculation includes a new Republican district north of Corpus Christi and an additional Hispanic district stretching from the valley to San Antonio.

Texas' current congressional delegation includes 20 Republicans and 12 Democrats, but in January, that shifts to 23 Republicans and nine Democrats.

Tuesday's announcement included only population totals and the resulting allocation of congressional seats for each state.

More detailed information — including racial and ethnic breakdowns of the population — will be released in February and March and used to redraw congressional districts and other political boundaries.

Recession, decrease

Robert Groves, director of the Census Bureau, declined to speculate on whether the lingering recession was responsible for the relatively slow rate of national population growth.

Only the 1930s, during the Depression, had slower growth over the past century.

"A lot of developed countries around the world are slowing in their growth rate," Groves said.

But Steve Murdock, a Rice University sociologist and former director of the Census Bureau, said some of the results indicate as much.

The population in Michigan, one of the states hardest hit by the recession, dropped by 0.6 percent, making it the only state to lose population.

"That's very clearly tied to the recession," Murdock said.

Even Louisiana, which experienced an exodus following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, grew by 1.4 percent. The state still lost a congressional seat.

Immigration status

Groves also said the numbers don't reflect immigration status.

"We count residents, whether they are citizens or not, whether they are documented or not," he said.

In fact, states pushed to have everyone counted, including illegal immigrants, because political representation and federal funding is based on population.

Murdock said that while some population increases can be attributed to immigration, most of the nation's growth, including in Texas, comes from natural patterns - more births than deaths.

That accounts for about 55 percent of the growth in Texas, he said. Census Bureau estimates through 2009 indicate another 25 percent is due to people moving here from other states, with the rest from international immigration.

Earlier estimates indicated that 85 percent of the growth in Texas — and nearly that much nationally — is Hispanic, and most are young.

That could be good, Murdock said, noting that European nations are staggering under the growing weight of entitlements for an aging population, with too few young workers to support them.

Where the new congressional districts will be is anyone's guess, but there is no shortage of political speculation.

Joe Straus, speaker of the Texas House, said it's too early to say.

"We've had hearings," he said, "but the real work, the real detailed work, the maps and everything, we don't have all that information yet."

San Antonio Express-News reporter Gary Martin contributed to this report.

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