The analysis, by Benn Steil and Benjamin Della Rocca, estimated that a 25 percent tariff would increase the price of U.S.-manufactured vehicles by 1.3 percent on average. That, in turn, would lead to a 4 percent drop is U.S. auto sales around the world and a 45,000-person reduction in the auto workforce.

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That figure represents a small percentage of the auto industry’s work force, but amounts to almost a third of the steel industry’s work force.

“Given that employment in the U.S. auto industry is vastly higher than in the U.S. steel industry, such job losses would swamp any possible increase in steel employment,” the analysis said.

Trump said that the tariffs are intended to help protect American jobs.

The analysis did not include an exemption for certain countries, which Trump is said to be considering.