The National Women’s Soccer League 2016 season kicks off this weekend for its historic fourth season, and we asked a panel of writers to look ahead at what fans can expect. Joining the Guardian’s NWSL contributor Caitlin Murray is Howler contributor Kevin Koczwara, Oregonian beat writer Jamie Goldberg and Excelle Sports editor Howard Megdal.



Which two teams will make the final and who will win?

Caitlin Murray: An unfavorable offseason may mean that two-time champion FC Kansas City are finally ready to step aside and give someone else a crack at the title. The Portland Thorns look poised to take that spot with the strong attacking talent that new coach Mark Parsons has added to the roster. The concern with them is that a higher-than-expected number of players leaving for Olympic duties could mess with team chemistry, which is why perennial favorites Seattle Reign FC earn the edge in this championship match-up. Unlike other teams where the best players are from the US national team, Seattle’s best players – including Kim Little, Jess Fishlock and Beverly Yanez – won’t have Olympic duty and should click well all the way to the title.

Kevin Koczwara: The Portland Thorns have put together a strong, and versatile team – despite losing Alex Morgan to the expansion Orlando Pride – and made a great move to hire coach Mark Parsons, so expect to see them in the finals. And I expect Crystal Dunn to click again and lead the Washington Spirit to the finals. Goals change games and Washington has plenty of goal-scorers, but I think Portland’s depth in midfield to win out and claim a second NWSL title.

Jamie Goldberg: The Portland Thorns have the talent to get back to the NWSL playoffs and make a run for the championship title this season. Portland has completely revamped its roster and brought in a whole new batch of world-renowned talent. While it could take some time for the new group to gain chemistry, this team could be unstoppable once they start clicking. The Thorns will lose key players to the Olympics, but the NWSL schedule and the time off the league is taking during international dates will benefit Portland.

I predict that the Thorns will face the Seattle Reign in the NWSL championship game.

The Reign have won the NWSL Shield two years in a row and enter the year with virtually the same roster as the last two seasons. The consistency will benefit the Reign as they contend for a top spot in the NWSL once again. Still, if the Thorns manage to click late in the year, they have the talent to outlast the Reign in the final and bring the championship title back to Portland.

Howard Megdal: I think the Houston Dash put it all together, and they defeat the Portland Thorns in the final. There’s so much talent on the Dash already – Carli Lloyd appears to have found another gear somehow for consistent finishing, and the early returns from Janine Beckie out of the draft have been nothing short of miraculous. I’m also a huge fan of Rachel Daly’s versatility. Plus, Bianca Henninger may have forsaken the United States national pool, but she’s absolutely an international-level talent.

Who will be crowned the league MVP?

CM: You’d like to see some new faces step up, but there’s no reason to think it won’t be Kim Little, who won it in 2014 and was a close second last year. She will again have much of the Reign’s stellar roster by her side and her individual abilities remain world class. Many US internationals could be nipping at her heels, but with the Olympics pulling them away for a handful of games, you have to give the edge to Little, whose Scottish roots mean she won’t be called upon for international duty and she’ll have time to make an impact.

KK: It will be Allie Long. The Thorns midfielder is really coming into her own and enjoying the best form of her career. She’s Portland’s linchpin in the attack and is already partnering well with Lindsey Horan at the national team level – and the pair will continue to link up with the Thorns.

Allie Long has a ton of talent. Photograph: Rich Barnes/Getty Images

JG: There are plenty of talented players that could contend for NWSL MVP this season, but I think the award will once again go to Kim Little. Little was crowned NWSL MVP in 2014 and was certainly in contention for the award last season. Little is in her prime and won’t be going to the Olympics, enabling her to keep her focus on the NWSL. The Scottish midfielder has been a dominant force in Seattle’s attack since joining the club in 2014 and there’s no reason why she won’t once again be one of the most effective attacking players in the league this year.

HM: It seems Heather O’Reilly can’t get into coach Jill Ellis’s national team plans, and I predict she’ll take it out on the NWSL, Crystal Dunn-style. If you missed Dunn’s run through the league after being the final cut from last year’s World Cup squad, it was a tour de force of goalscoring and score-settling. The difference in roster size between the World Cup and Olympics is the only reason O’Reilly might not join the USA in Rio – but don’t expect her to have mercy on opponents because of it.

Which off-season signing or trade will make the biggest impact?

CM: It may seem like going for an easy answer, but I’m picking French international Amandine Henry, who will join the Portland Thorns this summer (and sources tell me June 1). However, I do think the parity and physical nature of the NWSL will take some getting used to and, despite Henry’s immense talent, she may have a slow start as she adjusts. Even so, as I said when I first reported the news of her coming to the NWSL, her decision to come to the NWSL represents a huge boost for the legitimacy of the league – and it could play an important role in getting other European players interested in coming stateside. In that sense, I think her signing will prove to be pivotal, and once she gets going, she will raise the level on the pitch, too.

KK: Forward Katie Stengel joins the Washington Spirit from Bayern Munich and she has the potential to be the perfect fulcrum to Crystal Dunn. Stengel scored nine goals for Munich as they charged to the Bundesliga title last year and it will be interesting to see how the 24-year-old’s game translates to the NWSL.

JG: The blockbuster trade of Alex Morgan will certainly make a huge impact this season. The Thorns might have lost some name recognition on their roster by trading Morgan to Orlando, but the move will pay dividends on the field. In return for Morgan, the Thorns acquired the mechanisms to sign US Women’s National Team players Meghan Klingenberg, Lindsey Horan and Emily Sonnett, as well as an international roster spot that helped them sign Amandine Henry. All four of those players will be key starters for the Thorns this season and could be some of the top performers in the entire league. If the Thorns win a championship this year, it will be because of the Morgan trade.

HM: Striker Nadia Nadim arrives in Portland, a place where she’ll get proper service and avoid the central crush of defensive gameplans she faced at Sky Blue last year. At Sky Blue, Nadim represented the only scoring game in town for much of the season, and the team’s defensive schemes reflected it. Getting her to the Thorns, where she can be one of many threats, should allow her game to grow in a way she felt wasn’t happening in New Jersey.

Who will surprise everyone?

CM: It’s been a struggle for the Houston Dash since they became the league’s first expansion team two years ago. The roster never looked deep enough to challenge the league’s top teams and they never seemed like a playoff contender. But now, they finally have the pieces they need. Striker Chioma Ubogagu, who was a standout at Stanford and spent a year with Arsenal, is a major boost, and draft signing Janine Beckie of Texas Tech showed very well in preseason. With their signings complementing some existing pieces, like forward Kealia Ohai, the Dash finally have the firepower and pace to take it to teams.

KK: I may be biased for this one, but the Boston Breakers. By bringing in former Liverpool Ladies coach Matt Beard, the Breakers now have a bonafide leader with a vision and the pedigree to get the best from his team. The Breakers have gone out and signed proven veterans to fortify its young core and solidified the middle of the field and its defense by trading for center-back Whitney Engen. Losing goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher hurts, but the trade made the team in front of goal better – a good goalkeeper can only cover up so many cracks and the Breakers have addressed a slew of them this summer.

JG: Expansion teams often struggle to get results in their debut season, but I think the Orlando Pride will be an exception to that trend. With former US women’s national team coach Tom Sermanni at the helm, the Pride have put together a talented roster that could contend for a top spot in the NWSL this season. Outside of Alex Morgan, the Pride have some very talented players in goalkeeper Ashlyn Harris, Australian outside-back Steph Catley and English midfielder Lianne Sanderson, among others. It might take Orlando some time to gel, but I think this is a club that is going to be in contention for a top spot in the NWSL this year.

HM: I think Sky Blue will improve quite a bit this year, and Raquel Rodriguez will adjust seamlessly to the league. The team drafted well between Rodriguez, defender Erika Skroski and goalkeeper Caroline Casey. Add in the consistent presence of Christie Rampone, who doesn’t look like she’ll be part of the US team going to Rio, and it could get interesting quickly if Sky Blue comes together.

What are you looking forward to the most?

CM: With Orlando becoming the second NWSL expansion team and the third MLS-backed team in the league, there are high hopes Orlando can offer another model for more MLS teams to follow into the women’s game. Portland and their impressive 15,639 average attendance is often deemed an anomaly in women’s soccer, but if Orlando can put up strong numbers too, it will be a lot harder for MLS clubs to dismiss the possibility of expanding into the NWSL. So far, Orlando seems to be doing everything right.

KK: Seeing how the expansion club Orlando Pride fairs in its first year. Orlando has made big splashes, signing the likes of Alex Morgan, Lianne Sanderson, Ashlyn Harris, Mônica to fill out its roster with many strong pieces and depth. On top of that, they’ve given former national team coach Tom Sermanni the keys to lead a talented team into the fires of the NWSL.

JG: There is a lot to be excited about this season. The NWSL is set to become the first women’s professional league in the US to reach a fourth season and it’s entering the year on fairly stable footing. The league has added two clubs since its inception in 2013, with the Orlando Pride becoming the latest expansion side to join the league. I am most looking forward to seeing what Orlando brings to the NWSL this year on and off the field. Orlando has made some smart roster decisions and has the talent to be successful in this league, but even more exciting is their potential for fan support. The Pride are already aiming to beat the current NWSL attendance record, set by the Thorns in 2015, and appear poised to become one of the top two best-supported teams in the NWSL the year.

HG: Seeing the explosion of soccer in Orlando with the Pride put to rest the idea that Portland’s fan support isn’t replicable if franchises are run correctly and properly supported financially. Orlando supported the MLS side Orlando City SC extremely well, and there’s clearly a thirst for soccer in the region. With an appealing team that exceeds a typical expansion roster, there could well be a playoff run to further reinforce the investments made by the franchise on the marketing side.

What are you looking forward to the least?

CM: The NWSL is growing league in only its fourth year of competition. While some people try to compare the NWSL and MLS as they are today, MLS had a 16-year head start. For that reason, although there is clearly much work to be done to raise the quality of the league, my biggest concern this year instead revolves around the US national team and how their pay disputes could impact the future of NWSL. The players are being sued essentially over their right to strike and they are suing US Soccer over their salaries. Since US Soccer backs the league by paying separate NWSL salaries to national team players, these disputes could have a major impact on the NWSL. I’m not looking forward to these acrimonious disputes dragging on, and potentially dragging down the NWSL – especially if a strike does occur.

KK: The Olympics. Why doesn’t the NWSL take a longer break while its biggest names and best players are off preparing for another major tournament? It makes no sense. Start limiting US national training camp lengths – especially since the league is arguably built on having national team talent – or just put the schedule on pause earlier.

JG: While this summer’s Olympics will certainly shine a light on women’s soccer in the US, it will also put a bit of a damper on the excitement around the NWSL season. The NWSL will once again lose national team players to the Olympics and those players will miss some important NWSL games down the stretch. The league is taking a nearly one-month break to accommodate the Olympics, which on one hand will enable the national teams players to miss less games, but on the other hand will halt the season just at a time when there should be some excitement building around the playoff race. The league is clearly making an effort to deal with the Olympics, but they won’t be able to prevent it from seriously disrupting the season.

HM: A post-Olympics victory tour that takes away from the NWSL final stretch run? Just proactively saying it in the hope it doesn’t happen. Houston Dash coach Randy Waldrum described just how much momentum was taken out of the NWSL last year as it attempted to capitalize on the World Cup victory because national team players embarked on tour of friendlies. Ideally, that won’t be repeated following a victory in Rio, should it happen.

What’s the one change you’d like to see NWSL make?

CM: It’s no secret that the strongest clubs league-wide in attendance, venue quality, financial support, and a host of other areas, are affiliated with MLS clubs. The existing infrastructure and fan base that comes with such a partnership is just difficult to match. For the few NWSL clubs that are lagging severely behind in quality metrics, the league should consider stepping in and either getting these clubs partnered up with an MLS club or consider moving the team to a stronger market. Although expansion is important for the footprint of the league, the league needs to set standards with the teams it already has and ensure they are met.

KK: Finding a way to pay players a living wage. It’s become too common to see well-known players like Nikki Marshall, Kate Deines and Nikki Washington retired while in the prime of their careers. Jazmine Reeves retired as a 22-year-old for a job at Amazon and countless other players will choose to leave their dreams behind because being a professional soccer player in the NWSL, for the most part, is to earn poverty-level wages and that’s not acceptable.

JG: The league needs to continue upgrading its facilities and improving its salary structure. The league has certainly made improvements in these areas. The Chicago Red Stars will be playing home games at Toyota Stadium this year, becoming the fourth NWSL team to play in an MLS stadium. The league has also once again modestly raised its salary cap. That said, there are still subpar facilities within the NWSL and the lowest paid players on the rosters are not earning anywhere near livable salaries. Along with that, the league continues to rely on unpaid amateur players to serve as game day replacements when national team players are away. As the league continues to grow, these are things that need to seriously be addressed.

HM: The New Jersey-based Sky Blue FC should partner with a New York-area team – ideally the New York Red Bulls in MLS playing at Red Bull Arena – to give them a fighting chance at expanding their fan base dramatically. Last year, Sky Blue was last in average attendance at just 2,189 and asking people to come to a college campus during the summer that isn’t easily accessible by public transportation – located just far enough from New York and Philly to keep either from serving as a true home market – doesn’t help anyone. New York is exploding for soccer right now, and no New York team in the NWSL is a massive, missed opportunity.