The 2018 NHL draft lottery is Saturday. It is a significant moment for many NHL franchises because, with some good fortune, the direction of their organization can change in a significant way. Teams can’t put all their faith in the lotto balls falling their way since the league has flattened the odds across all the non-playoff teams. Teams need to be prepared for all circumstances and how it affects their draft. Today I will discuss the various scenarios facing teams based on the results of the draft lottery and what they mean.



To start, it’s important to have a base understanding of the typical value for a draft pick in a particular draft slot. I’ll illustrate this by using Iain Fyffe’s research from Hockey Prospectus to show what the average peak GVT is for a given draft slot. GVT is a wins above replacement like stat for hockey, and peak GVT is defined as the player’s GVT in the best five of 10 seasons after his draft year. The graph...