...

Every poll averager has his own way of doing things, Lenski said, and those involved have publicly debated who has the better way. The exact recipes, however, are usually held close to the vest.

Jones, who has taught statistical inference and statistical computing courses at UW-Madison, said his model uses polling done on the Burke-Walker race and adjustments based on how each polling house has fared compared to the results in previous election cycles.

There are two factors that go into those adjustments, known as house effects. One captures the historical but usually unintentional lean toward one party or the other in poll results.

The other, Jones said, judges a polling house on how its methodology affects its accuracy. Some pollsters call cell phones as part of their sampling; others call only land lines. Some use live interviews, others involve automated calls. Live-caller polling, including to cell phones, has been considered by many to be the best option.