What’s happening with the Brexit bill?

Last week, MPs voted the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) bill through the House of Commons. None of the amendments proposed by opposition MPs from various parties was passed. Parliament is now in recess for a week, but the House of Lords will give the bill a second reading on 20 February.

What are the Lords planning?

A long night. Already, 183 peers have put their names down to speak at the bill’s second reading, and it could end up being a record number on the day. The bill is expected to comfortably pass this stage, however, because opposition peers are keen to get it to the committee stage, when they can start to debate amendments. Different parties have already submitted a total of 10 pages of amendments in advance, and that number is expected to rise substantially.

How could peers seek to change the Brexit bill?

Labour peers have submitted eight amendments, including requiring a vote in parliament on any deal struck by Theresa May before that deal is put to the European parliament. The government has verbally committed to doing this, but an amendment to make it legally binding was defeated in the Commons, so peers are trying again.

Guaranteeing EU nationals’ rights to stay in the UK post-Brexit is also a key Labour frontbench amendment. It got a lot of support in the Commons but did not pass. Other Labour amendments are more technical, such as requiring regular reporting to parliament, the involvement of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and the publication of impact assessments.

An amendment by former Labour cabinet minister Peter Hain, requiring the government to pay regard to the Good Friday agreement, is also gaining traction. The Lib Dems have amendments, too, on EU nationals and on the requirement for a second referendum on the final deal. Whatever amendments are selected, it is likely Lib Dems will support Labour’s amendments, but less likely that Labour peers will support Lib Dem calls for another referendum.

What amendments are likely to get through the Lords?

Pro-EU peers believe they have a chance of passing amendments on the rights of EU citizens resident in Britain, and on the timing of a parliamentary vote on the deal. At least 230 Labour and Lib Dem peers are expected to vote for both, as well as large chunk of the 178 crossbench peers who are not aligned to any political party. David Davis, the Brexit secretary, has said the government is prepared for this, saying he expects “some passing backward and forward”.

Can the Lords vote to block the bill?

The Conservatives don’t have a majority in the House of Lords, so if Lib Dem and Labour peers get the support of a few smaller parties and crossbenchers, they will easily defeat the government. However, it is unlikely peers will vote to block the bill altogether. If they do vote down the bill, or vote it through with amendments the government doesn’t want, it will return to the House of Commons, beginning a process known as “ping pong”.

What is ping pong?

A high-stakes battle of wills to see who will break first – peers or government. The Lords ping the bill back to the Commons, which could agree to the amendments; or, more likely, try to find a way to force peers to back down. Davis has previously said the peers must do their “patriotic duty” to pass the bill and other government sources have threatened reform of the House of Lords if it does not respect the referendum result. Peers seem relatively relaxed about this threat.

If the Commons wants to reject amendments, a small group called the reasons committee composes a formal rejection. They could offer other amendments, or they could just say: No thanks. Government ministers could also give verbal concessions – say, on EU citizens – in the hope of persuading some peers to back down.

While one House deliberates, the other waits, and whips need to make sure peers don’t go home. There have been imaginative solutions to this in the past, including screenings of the James Bond film Skyfall during negotiations for the 2013 Justice and Security Bill.

How long can they delay?

The longest ping pong in the past 20 years happened during the passage of Tony Blair’s 2005 Prevention of Terrorism bill – it lasted 36 hours, non-stop. This time, however, crossbench peers are unlikely to have the stomach to block the bill multiple times after they have asked the government to think again once.

Will it affect the Article 50 timetable?

The short answer is: no. The government has plenty of time to meet its self-imposed timetable of the end of March. If peers reject the bill, it is likely to be back in the Commons on 13 March, and then back again to the Lords the following day. Barring anything unprecedented, the bill should be given royal assent and become law by mid-March.