Syracuse, N.Y. — The unemployment numbers in Central New York are so staggering that if you graph them it looks like the start of a heart attack.

And it is.

The economic devastation caused by the coronavirus shutdown that started a month ago is unprecedented: More than 1 million people — one of every nine workers — have filed for unemployment in a month in New York. That number is 22 million nationwide. The only time the numbers looked worse was the Great Depression.

Experts agree on two things: It will get worse before it gets better, and almost no industry will be untouched.

In Central New York, unemployment can be estimated at 14%. That would be the highest it’s ever been in modern history.

Workers across every field in the region are feeling the hurt through layoffs, temporary pay cuts and furloughs, fewer hours and reduced benefits.

“There is no industry that isn’t feeling pain and impact,” said Rob Simpson, CEO of CenterState CEO, the regional business group. “The longer this goes, the deeper these impacts become.”

Some indicators:

55% of businesses who responded to a CenterState CEO survey say they have or will cut staff or pay.

40% of Upstate businesses have laid off workers, according to a Siena College survey ; 35% don’t think their business will recover to pre-crash levels.

Half of the manufacturers in the U.S. reported at least partial shutdowns and staff cuts, a New York Federal Reserve Bank survey showed.

Restaurants and hotel workers were first. Statewide, at least 240,000 workers in that industry have lost their jobs. Retail clerks had almost no place to work.

Workers who seemed recession-proof followed. Hospitals and health-care systems, forced to cancel the elective surgeries and non-emergency appointments that bring in the most money, furloughed at least 1,655 workers in the region.

The YMCA sent home all but 70 of its 1,300 CNY workforce. Lawyers across the state are absorbing pay cuts.

Advance Media New York, which publishes Syracuse.com and The Post-Standard, announced furloughs and temporary pay cuts for all staff to offset a national dive in advertising.

Social service workers suffered: The Salvation Army asked nearly two-dozen workers to use their vacation time to avoid layoffs. The Rescue Mission cut 285 of its 385 employees.

Some are being buoyed by the generous safety net that includes an extra $600 a week in unemployment insurance. But others are sliding through the holes — blocked from those benefits because of an overloaded system for jobless benefits.

***

Ronnie Greher has worked since he was 14. For the past 29 years, that job has been in the driver’s seat of a bus.

The 56-year-old loved the people and the road. The money was solid: $65,000 last year.

He was laid off last month. How could you social-distance on a bus? Two drivers in another state died from the virus, Greher said.

He filed for unemployment. The additional $600 federal benefit would make his unemployment check more than his take-home pay. But he checked the wrong box when asked if his work loss was coronavirus-related and still hasn’t received his money.

Like so many, Greher said, he lost his health insurance and other benefits along with his job. To keep his insurance would have cost $2,200 a month. The state exchange’s coverage was too expensive, so Greher and his wife made the first hard choice: They will go without insurance for now.

“That hangs over our heads,” Greher said.

***

Every Thursday morning, Russell Weaver, an economic geographer with the Cornell School of Industrial and Labor Relations, watches the worsening unemployment numbers. Over the past month, 46,095 Central New Yorkers filed initial claims. That number for the same time period last year: 2,853.

“It’s just been mind-boggling to watch some of these numbers come in,” Weaver said.

More people have filed for unemployment in the past four weeks than did in in the 50 weeks that followed all of the three most recent recessions — combined, said Lucy Dadayan, a senior research associate at the Urban Institute.

The most vulnerable workers are also the ones who will take longer to recover, Weaver said. Expenses for food and housing will pile up. They will not be able to afford health-care expenses if they catch the virus.

“Their ability to do all of that is going to be swept away in one fell swoop,” he said.

The next wave of layoffs is reaching into health care fields and workers who have been able to work remotely. Universities have already implemented hiring freezes. Governments are piling up losses.

“This crisis feels different," Weaver said. "Those jobs that might have been recession-proof in the past might not be pandemic proof.”

Another thing that is different, though, is that this crisis was manufactured to save lives. Normal life will return. What will that look like and how soon? Can the unemployed just hang on?

***

Tina McMahon and fiancé Amaury Martinez are living at the Red Roof Inn during the coronavirus outbreak. Scott Schild | sschild@syracuse.comScott Schild | sschild@syracuse.

Tina McMahon and her fiancé, Amaury Martinez, were already living on a thin margin in Syracuse.

The couple both had jobs that hovered around minimum wage. She had been living with family and he had been staying at the Downtown YMCA. But their jobs were stable enough that they moved to a hotel while they found an apartment.

She made $12.25 an hour pitching state energy grants to homeowners. She never worked more than 35 hours and didn’t have benefits, but between her job and his they had enough to find a little place together.

Then Martinez lost his job March 13. McMahon was cut the next week. Both are waiting for their unemployment.

McMahon said they found a studio apartment for $575 a month and a local agency will help with the security deposit. But the bill for the hotel keeps rising while they are trying to come up with the first month’s rent.

“We were confident and excited. Now we are broke and days from living on the street,” she said. “I am terrified.”

***

Companies across Central New York are calculating who to cut and who to keep, said Simpson, from CenterState CEO.

“We’ve seen a range of responses from employers,” he said. Some closed and laid off workers immediately. Others are trying to minimize the pain by using furloughs, which keeps people on their benefits.

A few are still in hiring mode, Simpson said. Grocers, for example, are raising pay and adding people.

Still, many are calculating how to save what’s left for when the economy reopens.

Jennifer Savastino, the owner of Gannon’s pest control in Solvay, April 16, 2020.They had to furlough workers Dennis Nett | dnett@syracuse.com

Jennifer Savastino runs Gannon’s Pest Control in Solvay. When it appeared her business was “non-essential,” Savastino furloughed most of the office staff. She also furloughed two of the four technicians on the road during the slow months.

Now that the weather is warming and the state is allowing her to operate, she will hire back technicians gradually. All of the office staff is back, working from home (including her mom).

Bugs and rodents keep coming, so Savastino’s business may have a layer of protection from this economic bomb.

Factory workers do not. Plants across the state have cut employees and payrolls at a record pace, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey. Most are using up their cash to pay rent and make payroll. The federal CARES Act made money available for smaller businesses to cover payroll, but that fund has already run out.

Venus Cooper was laid off from Tessy Plastics last month after nearly seven years. She earned $55,000 supervising workers who made deodorant cases, she said.

Unemployment insurance covers her pay, but not her quarterly bonuses of more than $2,000. She also lost health insurance and her 401K contribution. Some workers have been called back, Cooper said. So far she has not.

She’s looking for work instead of waiting for her employment to run out.

“I just want to clock in and do my job,” Cooper said.

***

Some of those still working are taking hard hits.

An auto technician who works at a Central New York dealership said he may soon make less than his health-care benefits cost. That’s because he gets paid by the amount of work he does. So if lots of people need their cars fixed, he has a good day. These days, few cars come in.

Last week, he said, he made $40 for one six-hour shift.

He’d make far more getting unemployment, but he wants to keep the job he’s had for most of his life.

A Central New York Burger King worker said he used to get 30 hours a week, but now he works fewer than 12.

He makes a little more than minimum wage and worries he’ll get the virus during the few hours he is working. His girlfriend still has a full-time job, but without his income they won’t be able to pay the bills.

“I have to make rent,” he said. He’s applying for a second job at Walmart.

Patrice Granger’s last job ended Christmas Eve. She was an elf in Santa’s Workshop at Destiny USA.

Her next job was supposed to be the Easter Bunny. She’d gotten a job working for the Census, too. Both were set to start in late March. For once, she’d have two jobs at the same time.

But the pandemic came, the bunny got canceled and the mall closed. The Census said training was delayed.

She applied for and received unemployment, but her debit card doesn’t work, she said.

She has $772 she can’t use. Her husband works as a machinist. He used to take the bus, but that doesn’t always run so now he takes an Uber to the shop. That’s expensive.

They have bills to pay.

Every day, Granger calls unemployment trying to get the card fixed. And she calls the Census, trying to figure out if she’ll have work someday.

“I don’t know if it will ever get better,” she said.

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Marnie Eisenstadt is a reporter who writes about people and public affairs in Central New York. Have an idea or question? Contact her anytime: email | twitter| Facebook | 315-470-2246

Contact Michelle Breidenbach | mbreidenbach@syracuse.com | 315-470-3186.