Manchester United host Barcelona in their Champions League quarter-final first leg on Wednesday night. They can do it. Can’t they?

They have the blueprint

Not for beating Barcelona specifically, but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has shown that he can plot a route to victory without the ball. His best wins since taking over – away at PSG, Arsenal, Tottenham and Chelsea – were all earned by defensive organisation and resilience coupled with clinical counter-attacks.

Solskjaer will have taken as much from the home leg against PSG – when United looked as they felt obliged to attack without being sure how – as the away triumph, when the Red Devils sat in and allowed the hosts to have 72% of the possession but not the space to do a great deal with it. Keeping their shape before pressing with more vigour during the final stages of each half helped United plunder three goals from four shots on target and a place in the last eight.

Unlike that first-leg defeat to PSG, United will feel no shame about defending against Barcelona and no obligation to approach the La Liga leaders on the front foot. That was how United last beat Messi and Barca in 2008, when Sir Alex Ferguson shut out the Catalans home and away before progressing to the final courtesy of Paul Scholes’ stunning strike. “We got a goalless draw that night, though in all honesty we were second best creatively,” Scholes wrote in his book reflecting on that first leg. “We didn’t play any football that was remotely in their league. But defensively we were fantastic and that got us through.”

Eleven years on, despite Solskjaer’s incessant desire to draw parallels with the past, this is a different Barca and a very different United. But the tie could go a similar way.

Barca are beatable in the Champions League

Barca may be the dominant force in Spain, where they are heading towards their fourth La Liga title in five years, but their Champions League fortunes tell a different story. Not since they last won it four years ago have they gone past the stage they find themselves now. United may hope that previous failure and current expectation, especially in light of Real Madrid’s recent monopoly on the European Cup, weighs too heavily on their mind.

As cunning plans go, relying on Barca to bottle it is up there with anything Baldrick ever concocted. This season, they have shown their mettle, as recently as last weekend, when they scored two late goals to sink Atletico Madrid and all but wrap up the La Liga title race. Messi is on fire, having scored 43 goals in 40 appearances, and the suggestions from the Barca dressing room are that the game’s greatest player has his sights firmly set on the Champions League and running through whatever stands in their way.

But Barca have suffered calamitous exits in each of the last three years. They chucked away a first-leg lead to lose to a domestic rival; got spanked then shut out by Juventus; before worst of all, chucking in a three-goal advantage at Roma this time last year. If things start to go wrong, perhaps Messi can cope with the pressure, but can the whole Barca squad?

This is a group in a hurry to make the most of Messi’s unrivalled talent with far more to lose than United. That deficit of expectation could play immediately into the Red Devils’ hands if Solskjaer can frustrate and his attacking players can make their moments matter.

Pogba has his stage and plenty to prove

Understandably, most if the talk around this match-up surrounds Messi. Solskjaer referenced “one of the best in the world” in his pre-match press conference and if United don’t restrict the Barca captain then it could be a miserable tie. But Ernesto Valverde has a few reasons to be wary too.

Solskjaer has harvested some of the vast attacking talent within this squad that Jose Mourinho was unable – or unwilling – to do. Marcus Rashford, who should be fit, is a menace for any defence in the world, while Solskjaer seems to have tightened up Romelu Lukaku’s touch too. Either side of them, Anthony Martial and Jesse Lingard can swing games on their own.

But the greatest enigma remains the man Barcelona were reportedly keen to sign last summer. Paul Pogba started the Solskjaer era like a train but he has since come off the rails somewhat, with neither a goal nor an assist since February 27. Coincidence perhaps, but since he began fluttering his eyelashes at Zinedine Zidane, his output has dropped and there have been times the World Cup winner has resembled the liability he had become in Mourinho’s eyes, especially in the last two matches.

Motivation is not in short supply for the midfielder, wherever he might look for it, and though there have been times when Pogba has been too primed. – against PSG, for example, when he got himself needlessly sent off while adding little other than huff and puff to United’s output – this is the stage he feels he belongs. Whether Pogba “embraces the challenge of succeeding at Old Trafford”, like Mike Phelan suggested, or he sets out to impress Zidane, it could mean problems for Valverde if Solskjaer finds a way to retain United’s solidity while freeing up the star with most to prove.

Marcus F*cking Rashford

Solskjaer expects his No.10 to be fit to face Barca and if not then United have alternatives in Lingard and Martial. But Barca will fear neither as greatly as the forward they apparently want for themselves.

Rashford’s pace will be key to any hopes United have of getting past Barca and into the semi-finals. The England striker played his role perfectly against PSG and the job brief will be almost identical to that he was handed at the Parc des Princes just over a month ago.

Firstly, Rashford has a defensive role to play and he – alongside whomever Solskjaer chooses to partner him – will have to pick their moments to press, just as they did in Paris. But when United break, with Barca’s full-backs absent, Barcelona will be petrified of Rashford pulling on to the shoulder of Gerard Pique or Clement Lenglet, neither of whom could keep up with the 20-year-old if he is allowed to get into his stride in pursuit of split passes or balls played over the top.

Lenglet strutted around Old Trafford a year ago when Sevilla dumped out Mourinho’s shambolic outfit but United played a large part in making the France defender look like Franco Baresi that night. Rashford was confined to the right wing while Lukaku stayed in front of Lenglet trying and failing to make the most of whatever scraps were hoiked up his way. With Rashford and Lukaku playing as a pair and without similar cover from full-backs, Lenglet will be in for a rather more testing evening.

United’s injuries could be a blessing

Rashford aside, there are few players in United’s treatment room who might be missed against Barcelona.

Solskjaer says there is "hope" Matic can play against Barcelona. Says Herrera is "probably" out and "hopefully" Rashford will be ready but decision will be made tomorrow. — Rob Dawson (@RobDawsonESPN) April 9, 2019

Eric Bailly was hooked for his own good at PSG, while Alexis Sanchez has done nothing in a year at Old Trafford to suggest he might be an asset against Barcelona. Matic and Herrera would most likely be selected if available, but United carried out their assignment in Paris without either of the holding midfielders. In their place, the younger legs of Scott McTominay and Fred may be of more use.

Pogba will be asked to perform the role Pereira played in Paris. The Brazil midfielder played to the left of the midfield, dropping in when required while moving more centrally when attacking. Whether Pogba has the discipline Pereira showed, we shall see. It will be a damning and costly indictment if not.

McTominay has had his detractors but against PSG and even in the defeat last time out at Wolves, the Scotland midfielder’s performances suggested that perhaps Mourinho had a point. Without the ball, which is how United will spend most of the tie, the Red Devils are unlikely to suffer in Matic and Herrera’s absence. Like at PSG, perhaps it might be a blessing.

Ian Watson