



However, there were many articles during the primary season noting that there were independents who rejected both Clinton and the mainstream Republicans, telling reporters they were choosing whether to vote for Sanders or Trump. Here is one -



Not having studies showing that 1) some Sanders primary voters were never going to vote for Clinton - even if Sanders never ran or 2) that Sanders outreach in support of Clinton did save some Sanders voters for her does not mean that neither of these things happened -- just that no one has quantified it.



What the WP article is answering in your quote is the answer to a very simple question - if all Sanders primary voters had voted for Clinton, would she have won. In fact, the margins of victories in many states were small enough to state that was true. That quote does not rule out that some Sanders/Trump voters would never have been Clinton voters or that Sanders did not "grow" the Clinton base.





But, let the experts address just some Sanders/Clinton/Trump issues. Here is a more detailed discussion between those analysts and another analyst.





In an interview, Schaffner noted that in an election this close, any number of voting blocs could have proved decisive. And the analysis certainly doesnt necessarily prove Sanders would have won  Schaffner also found that 34 percent of John Kasichs GOP primary supporters backed Clinton in the general; perhaps more would have stayed in the Republican camp had Sanders been the Democrats nominee, or perhaps fewer of Hillary Clintons voters would have voted for Sanders. Then again, it also suggests some voters were in Sanderss reach that were out of Clintons.



<snip>



One piece of this thats important to keep in context is that you always see this kind of defection between a primary and a general election. In 2008, you saw a lot of Hillary Clinton voters who ended up backing John McCain  so it's not abnormal to see this kind of thing. And more of them did so in 2008 than this time. [15 percent of Clintons 2008 voters in the primary supported McCain in that years general election.] Although given the candidates this time versus in 2008, it may have been surprising to see even this rate of defection.



The thing that really stood out to me is that a lot of these people who voted for Sanders  and then Trump  don't look like modern day Democrats. So you saw a lot fewer of them actually identify as Democrats than your normal Sanders voter; and, even more striking, they seem to have views on racial issues that are far more conservative than your typical Democrat.



<snip>

Of the ones that switched to Trump, only about 25 percent also voted for a Democratic candidate for Congress. And we do have a little bit about what they did in 2012  it looks like they were split roughly evenly, 50-50, between Obama and Romney. So these appear to be people who are trending out of the Democratic Party.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/24/16194086/bernie-trump-voters-study



Note - that discussion does NOT look at whether Sanders successfully got people to vote for Clinton who otherwise wouldn't. The reason is that the data likely does not include the information to answer that. (ie they likely did not ask in the primary period if they would support Clinton if she won. Although had they done that, it would likely overstate the impact of Sanders.)



You ignore that I said there were no studies on the issues I brought up. As a person who did statistical analysis for 2 decades at Bell Labs/AT&T, I assure you I know that simply articulating other possible factors is not a study. However, that does not mean that they did not exist or that they were insignificant. They were just not analyzed as I said.However, there were many articles during the primary season noting that there were independents who rejected both Clinton and the mainstream Republicans, telling reporters they were choosing whether to vote for Sanders or Trump. Here is one - https://www.cnn.com/2016/02/08/politics/new-hampshire-primary-independent-voters/index.html Not having studies showing that 1) some Sanders primary voters were never going to vote for Clinton - even if Sanders never ran or 2) that Sanders outreach in support of Clinton did save some Sanders voters for her does not mean that neither of these things happened -- just that no one has quantified it.What the WP article is answering in your quote is the answer to a very simple question - if all Sanders primary voters had voted for Clinton, would she have won. In fact, the margins of victories in many states were small enough to state that was true. That quote does not rule out that some Sanders/Trump voters would never have been Clinton voters or that Sanders did not "grow" the Clinton base.But, let the experts address just some Sanders/Clinton/Trump issues. Here is a more detailed discussion between those analysts and another analyst. Of the ones that switched to Trump, only about 25 percent also voted for a Democratic candidate for Congress. And we do have a little bit about what they did in 2012  it looks like they were split roughly evenly, 50-50, between Obama and Romney. So these appear to be people who are trending out of the Democratic Party.Note - that discussion does NOT look at whether Sanders successfully got people to vote for Clinton who otherwise wouldn't. The reason is that the data likely does not include the information to answer that. (ie they likely did not ask in the primary period if they would support Clinton if she won. Although had they done that, it would likely overstate the impact of Sanders.)