by Aaron Schatz

Let the churn atop the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings continue! Last week, the Broncos dropped down from first to third. This week, with a big win over Carolina, the Broncos are back in first. In fact, the Broncos open up a bit of a lead over the rest of the league. The Patriots are still in second place, although their actual DVOA did drop because of the close game against Buffalo. San Francisco's attempt to make hot incest pr0n with the Rams drops the 49ers all the way from first place to sixth place, but that drop isn't quite as big as it looks because the teams ranked second through sixth are very close together. Don't overeact to the fact that San Francisco is now below Seattle.

Many fans know that fumble luck is a big part of the reason why the Broncos can be first in DVOA despite their 6-3 record. This week, they recovered only one of their own three fumbles, and didn't recover either of Carolina's. For the season, Denver has recovered just 24 percent of fumbles. But actually, the Broncos aren't the only team with such dismal fumble recovery luck this season. Green Bay has recovered just 25 percent of fumbles, and Kansas City has recovered just 22 percent of fumbles. (This is a big reason why the Chiefs have climbed all the way up to a dramatic 31st in DVOA.)

We're also now starting to see differences between total DVOA and weighted DVOA. Atlanta, for example, drops to 11th in total DVOA and 12th in weighted DVOA. Surprisingly, the Falcons at 8-1 have dropped below a team with a losing record, the 4-5 Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are on a secret hot streak, with over 20% DVOA in each of their last three games even though two of those games were losses to the two teams on either side of them in the DVOA ratings, the Giants and Falcons. The Cowboys are 18th in non-adjusted VOA but 10th in DVOA. The issue is not fumble recovery, but strictly schedule, as the Cowboys have had the third-toughest schedule in the league so far. Their remaining schedule is the easiest in the league by conventional measurement (i.e. winning percentage of opponents) and 25th by our measurement. This little Dallas hot streak should scare the Giants, who seem to have once again gone into their usual November nosedive. With their win this week, and the Giants' loss, the Cowboys see their playoff odds jump by 21.6 percent in the Football Outsiders playoff odds report. Dallas now wins the NFC East in one-third of our simulations. I've learned to have faith in the Giants when they go through this every year, but remember, the second-half swoon has taken the Giants out of the playoffs twice in the Tom Coughlin era.

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It's time for an update on the Historically Great DVOA Watch. The Chicago defense just gets better and better. This week's game had a -64.5% defensive DVOA, making it Chicago's second-best defensive performance of the season, behind Week 3 when they beat St. Louis 23-6 and kept the Rams to just 160 yards. The Bears are very close to breaking the -40% barrier on defense and now rank as the second-best defense we've ever tracked through 10 weeks, behind only the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

However, the Bears aren't the only team on the Historically Great DVOA Watch right now. The Baltimore Ravens special teams have been on fire the last couple weeks, and 42.0% DVOA in this week's huge blowout of Oakland is the best special teams game in the NFL this year. As a result, the Ravens have not only passed Chicago but have also climbed into the top ten for all-time special teams DVOA. The Ravens are slightly below average on punt returns, but excellent in every other aspect of special teams. If kickers had more marginal value, we would be considering Justin Tucker for Rookie of the Year. He leads all kickers this season in both field goal value (7.65 points above average) and gross kickoff value (6.5 points above average).

BEST DEFENSIVE DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 10, 1991-2012 x BEST SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 10, 1991-2012 Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA 2002 TB -40.5% x 2003 KC 13.9% 2012 CHI -39.9% x 2001 PHI 12.7% 1991 NO -37.1% x 1991 WAS 12.2% 1991 PHI -35.5% x 2011 SF 11.8% 1997 SF -32.2% x 1996 CAR 11.8% 1992 PHI -31.7% x 1998 DAL 11.3% 1993 PIT -30.8% x 2012 BAL 11.3% 1993 BUF -29.9% x 1994 CLE1 11.2% 1996 GB -27.2% x 1993 GB 10.9% 2004 BAL -26.5% x 1993 ATL 10.8% 2011 BAL -26.0% x 1997 DAL 10.8% 2006 CHI -25.9% x 2009 MIN 10.7%

It's a little odd to see no Chicago Bears teams on that "best special teams DVOA" list, but the 2006 Bears would be 13th, the 2011 Bears would be 14th, and the 2007 Bears -- who finished with the best special teams DVOA of the Hester years -- had their best games in the second half of the season.

This year's top offense, New England, is 14th all-time through Week 10, but is on its way to some other records. The Patriots are on pace to break the NFL record for first downs in a season. They are on pace to finish with offensive DVOA above 30% for the third straight year, only the second team to do so. (The other was Kansas City from 2002 to 2004.) This would also give them offensive DVOA above 25% five times in a six-year span: 2007 and then 2009 through 2012.

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All stats pages should now be updated including FO Premium stats and snap counts.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through ten weeks of 2012, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

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OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. Now that we've reached Week 10, opponent adjustments are at full strength and will be for the remainder of the season.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 DEN 39.8% 3 41.1% 1 6-3 19.2% 4 -16.0% 4 4.7% 8 2 NE 34.4% 2 34.8% 2 6-3 31.1% 1 1.3% 17 4.7% 7 3 SEA 33.1% 6 34.1% 3 6-4 6.9% 13 -22.8% 3 3.4% 10 4 GB 33.0% 4 31.3% 5 6-3 21.0% 2 -9.1% 7 2.9% 13 5 CHI 32.1% 5 33.9% 4 7-2 -15.7% 27 -39.9% 1 7.9% 2 6 SF 31.9% 1 30.6% 6 6-2-1 19.4% 3 -12.3% 6 0.2% 18 7 HOU 23.6% 8 23.2% 7 8-1 7.3% 12 -24.7% 2 -8.4% 32 8 BAL 15.3% 12 14.4% 8 7-2 7.9% 9 3.9% 20 11.3% 1 9 NYG 13.9% 7 14.3% 9 6-4 8.6% 7 -3.9% 9 1.4% 15 10 DAL 8.1% 11 8.4% 10 4-5 7.8% 10 -0.8% 15 -0.5% 19 11 ATL 7.1% 9 4.9% 12 8-1 7.5% 11 1.7% 18 1.3% 16 12 PIT 4.9% 10 6.3% 11 6-3 4.2% 16 2.3% 19 3.0% 12 13 TB 3.9% 13 3.9% 13 5-4 8.0% 8 -1.5% 14 -5.6% 27 14 DET 2.9% 15 2.2% 14 4-5 18.5% 5 9.0% 25 -6.6% 29 15 MIN -0.4% 16 -0.8% 15 6-4 -7.0% 21 0.4% 16 7.0% 3 16 NO -2.2% 18 -1.1% 17 4-5 15.2% 6 19.1% 30 1.7% 14 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 STL -3.6% 21 -3.5% 18 3-5-1 -4.6% 19 -3.6% 10 -2.5% 24 18 CIN -4.5% 24 -1.0% 16 4-5 1.9% 18 10.2% 26 3.8% 9 19 CAR -6.4% 17 -7.4% 19 2-7 -6.4% 20 -7.1% 8 -7.1% 30 20 MIA -6.6% 14 -8.1% 21 4-5 -14.6% 25 -3.1% 11 4.9% 6 21 WAS -8.0% 20 -8.0% 20 3-6 5.9% 14 7.4% 23 -6.5% 28 22 SD -10.5% 23 -11.0% 23 4-5 -7.2% 22 4.0% 21 0.7% 17 23 BUF -11.9% 25 -10.4% 22 3-6 2.3% 17 20.1% 31 5.9% 4 24 ARI -12.0% 22 -13.8% 24 4-5 -22.4% 30 -13.1% 5 -2.7% 25 25 NYJ -13.8% 19 -15.5% 25 3-6 -20.0% 28 -3.0% 12 3.2% 11 26 PHI -16.5% 26 -18.0% 26 3-6 -14.2% 24 -2.5% 13 -4.7% 26 27 IND -20.7% 27 -21.1% 27 6-3 4.5% 15 24.1% 32 -1.2% 23 28 CLE -22.6% 29 -22.5% 28 2-7 -21.3% 29 6.3% 22 5.0% 5 29 TEN -28.4% 31 -27.4% 29 4-6 -14.7% 26 13.0% 28 -0.7% 20 30 OAK -31.1% 28 -30.2% 30 3-6 -8.8% 23 14.6% 29 -7.7% 31 31 KC -38.2% 32 -35.6% 31 1-8 -29.9% 32 7.5% 24 -0.8% 21 32 JAC -39.0% 30 -39.4% 32 1-8 -25.1% 31 12.8% 27 -1.1% 22

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).