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3. History may offer some lessons

The 2013 field looks closest at this point to the six-candidate field that contested the 1992 Ontario Liberal leadership. Murray Elston had 30% support on the first ballot and Lyn McLeod had 27% of the delegates. There was a gulf between second and third place, where Greg Sorbara had 14% support on the first ballot. Mr. Sorbara never got closer than 16% of support, and Ms. McLeod moved into first place after the third ballot. She won the leadership on the fifth ballot.

4. Now comes the deal-making

Every now and then a politician — or a party — gets in trouble when it’s discovered that they have engaged in some form of bribery. There are laws against this: politicians are not supposed to accept “inducements” in exchange for their support on a particular issue. A leadership race tosses such ethical questions aside; everyone knows that if one of the trailing candidates pledges his support to one of the leaders, it can be taken as fact that the endorser would be given something in exchange. That something is usually a sweet cabinet post should their newly endorsed candidate win. It’s the seamy underbelly of delegated conventions — every candidate likes to talk about how they entered politics to help make a positive difference in their community, and yet shameless deal-brokering is a standard part of the process here.

5. But there is some wiggle room

The delegates elected on the weekend from each riding in the province are only committed to their candidate of choice on the first ballot. Even with the expected handshake agreements between also-rans and front-runners, there’s no guarantee that all of someone’s supporters will follow them to whomever they are endorsing. Throw in the 400-plus uncommitted delegates, and the scenarios to predict a Wynne or Pupatello victory can’t be easily gamed out at this point. That is, even if Ms. Pupatello climbs over 30% support on the first ballot, there will still be a huge pool of delegates that Wynne (or someone else) can draw from for subsequent votes.