Wednesday had that sort of pre-holiday feel about it. And hardly shocking because in the US that’s exactly what was.

Early closes for the stock and bond markets and a slow wind down in FX. Also, a great excuse for the rest of the world to slow down for 36 hours.

Crypto, of course, is the one exception, not recognizing any holidays in its perpetual pursuit of seamless trading.

BTC, which just had a royal battle with the $10,000 level, has continued to bounce off the aforementioned level, trading up as high as $11,570 at one point.

A brief dip sub $11,000 was quickly repelled and would end the day near the highs around $11,400.

ETH would ping around between $290 and $300 ending the day mid-range around $295. Not much in the way of news for the market to work off, but the price action at least is constructive.

For other asset markets, well it was back to lower interest rates, higher equities and a tweet from President Trump, which had the USD scurrying briefly.

First up though was the ADP Non-Farm Employment data which came in weaker than expected, although there was a small upward revision to last month’s number.

Shortly thereafter up steps Mr. Trump with a tweet about how the US should join China and Europe in manipulating their currency. This saw the USD drop with the ‘risk-on’ currencies benefitting most.

AUDUSD would rally to 0.7039, NZDUSD to 0.6720 and USDCAD would move lower to 1.3062 (remember the 1.3050-56 level I highlighted yesterday).

EURUSD would also bounce, hitting 1.1310 but faded during the day to sit nearer 1.1280 by the NY close.

XAU continued with yesterday’s move higher hitting $1,437.50 before settling back at $1,420. Quite a volatile 24 hours for the yellow metal.

Bond markets would continue to rally send yields lower, the US 10Y down 1.95% in expectation of a Fed rate cut later in the month.

And finally, equity markets had a day to remember with European and US shares moving higher, the DJ and Nasdaq both closing at all-time highs.

Remember it’s a US holiday on July 4th so equity and bond markets will be closed in the US and no doubt the FX and crypto markets will be muted compared to normal days. US Non-Farm payroll data to look forward to on Friday!

Today, I’ve chosen XAUUSD for some simple technical analysis. Towards the end of June, I highlighted a monthly breakout to highs not seen since 2016. With that break has come some increased volatility.

The key here is to focus on the levels and avoid getting chopped up in the middle. As you can see from this hourly chart, we have had several attempts to trade back under $1,382 and a couple of attempts to break above the $1,440 level.

Depending on your approach, respect these levels and watch for the break in either direction.

And as a footnote, there will be no commentary tomorrow with the US holiday; full service to resume with the weekend commentary for publishing Monday morning.

