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Every year, the football voters get to elect five modern-day players to make the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio. This past election saw recent finalists Junior Seau, Will Shields, Tim Brown, Charles Haley and Jerome Bettis earn enshrinement.

It’s easy to know some of the active players who will make it. Peyton Manning is a lock. So is Tom Brady. Darrelle Revis seems well on his way. There’s no 10-year minimum rule, as is the case for major league baseball. Theoretically, an NFL player could make it by playing just five years—Gale Sayers made it despite appearing in just 68 games.

In evaluating the chances of current players, I looked closely at retired players, both those in the Hall of Fame and those not in, to see how the active players compare to them. If a quarterback throws for 40,000 yards and 250 touchdown passes, those are gaudy statistics, but they don’t mean nearly as much in the 2000s as they did in the 1970s. And if 10 other quarterbacks playing now will retire with similar numbers, it diminishes the value of those achievements.

The usual awards will be weighed heavily—MVP awards, Pro Bowl selections, All-Pro nominations—as well as seasons leading the league in important statistics. In the case of a quarterback, there are plenty of ways to evaluate his game; for offensive linemen, Pro Bowls can often be the be-all, end-all in determining a player’s legacy.

These players are ranked in reverse order from 75 to one, with the first player on the list having a lower chance than the ones after him. Players have to have been in the NFL for three seasons to be considered eligible, so you won’t find rookie standouts like Odell Beckham Jr. or Aaron Donald on this list simply because it’s too soon to even consider their long-term odds.

For young stars like Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson, it’s difficult to evaluate their futures against that of established veterans like Philip Rivers and Tony Romo. That’s what makes this list highly debatable, as I tried to project a career for Luck or Wilson based on how others with similar accomplishments have done in their first three NFL seasons.

If Luck gets injured this offseason and never plays another game, he’s not going to make the Hall of Fame. That’s unlikely, though, and he’s had no injury history. As a result, Luck is still fairly high on this list. He's ahead of a guy like Carson Palmer (who didn't make this list), because at this point, Palmer almost can't make the Hall of Fame.

Then again, that doesn't mean Luck can coast from here on out and still make it; my projections assume he will continue his elite play. That’s what makes these debatable rankings and highly subjective to change after every upcoming season.

To start, here are five players who just missed the cut: Eric Weddle, Arian Foster, Maurkice Pouncey, Patrick Peterson and Trent Williams.