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“The rule was that fuel demand grew slower than GDP, but this changed,” he said, adding Petrobras will likely maintain its dependence on foreign fuel markets.

Petrobras says gasoline imports will reach 3.2 million barrels by the end of August, an amount almost equal to the total imported in 2010. It is likely to rise by the end of the year on the seasonal demand increase.

Supplies may tighten even further within the next five years following Petrobras’ decision to postpone the 300,000 barrel per day Premium I refinery by two years as it focuses on more profitable exploration and production operations.

The company plans four new refineries. The first is slated to open by late 2012 or early 2013, though construction delays could push back its start-up. Even though all the refineries will provide fuel for the local market, Brazil still expects at least 5 percent of its domestic fuel to come from abroad.

The imports should have less impact on global fuel markets in the medium term, as a slowdown in Europe and the United States has eased tightness on oil products markets.

“Brazil’s fuel demand growth is likely to slow down in the near future as economies around the world begin to slow,” said Mark Routt, an energy industry consultant with KBC Advanced Technologies. “But the forecast for Brazil’s growth remains very robust — it’s going to be a major feature of product markets going forward.”

SUGAR BOOM SOURS ETHANOL

Complicating the picture is the dim outlook for new supply of sugar-cane ethanol used by Brazil’s flex-fuel cars, which can run on any combination of the biofuel and gasoline. More than 90 percent of all autos sold in 2010 were flex-fuel models.