I’ve been playing fantasy premier league for a good number of years now, I’ve always gone on gut feeling and with my ‘heart’. The best I’ve manged from that is a top 60,000 finish.

I began this season quite well, then dropped quickly off when I went traveling for two months and my team languished to a position below 2 million. I wasn’t happy with this and the stick I was getting from my league was unacceptable. I work for a large tech company and the buzz word of the moment is Big Data. IBM have recently released a free web app called Watson analytics which is a part of their cognitive computing department and I decided to have a look at some data in it and see if I could turn my team around.

The most outstanding thing I had noticed was the lack of strikers making an impact this year, in fact strikers this year have contributed less points in total than defenders. The following chart shows the breakdown of total points per position divided by team. The bigger the box, the more points. It’s clear to see that this year it’s critical to have the right midfield and defense.

I wanted to grow my team as quickly as possible and this meant finding teams with relatively high points scores, a low average price and a low rate of selection. The following chart shows teams presented according to this criteria. The size of the points represent the average percentage of managers who selected that team’s players. The teams in the red ring are those I want to focus on, they have a good amount of points with a low price average. These teams are: Everton, West Ham, Southampton, Stoke, West Brom, Crystal Palace, Swansea, Watford and of course Leicester. I’ll also be considering Tottenham as they have a relatively low % of selection compared to the other high scoring teams.

So this following chart uses the same format as before but in this case it shows us players for the teams I’ve decided to look at. Obviously we can discount the majority of players to the left of the chart, some of the notable outliers here are Mariappa and McCarthy who both have incredibly low prices meaning they are selected by an abnormally high number of players looking to save money.

Obviously our two big baby blue points are the most lethal strike force in the league who need no introduction, if you haven’t jumped on that bandwagon then you’re a braver man than I.

So we’ll now cut this down to just the teams I wanted to focus on and have a look at the far right of the chart. Let’s ignore the Vardy party because if you don’t have both of them in your team then you’re probably in trouble. Lukaku, Kane and Pelle are all in contention for striker here but you cannot ignore Ighalo, he has consistently got points whilst remaining cheap and selected by a low number of managers. Another player to consider who is not on this chart is Christian Benteke, with Liverpool’s excellent run of games he’s been silently netting points and could be a bit of a gamble if you’re not wanting to go with Lukaku. Next up, Ross Barkley is storming ahead in the points and is still remaining cheap and under-selected. Ayew and Payet have both been the focal points of their teams but their form is appearing to slow, along with Payet’s injury they can be ignored.

Now we move left and focus on some of the very cheap players who are underselected and have respectable scores. My stand out choice here is Toby Alderweireld. With a huge amount of points, low selection and all at a very fair price. Scott Dann too has a respectable score and is very cheap. Arouna Koné, at an absolute bargain basement price of £4.9m and a very respectable score he’s an excellent third choice striker and could free up some cash if you’re looking to bring in Aguero. Along with the inform Ivorian is Arnautovic (his name is hidden under Yannick Bolasie) at a decent price of £6.0m he has snagged himself a few goals and assists already, as well as the odd bonus point and cleansheet. If you’ve got some more money to spare in the midfield then Johan Cabaye is an excellent choice although he’s not as under selected as some of the other options.

Above this group is a number of players who, statistically speaking should be avoided. Lukaku is not only cheaper than Kane, but has a far higher point total, Ighalo or Koné are excellent options for replacement here to bring in Aguero or Lukaku to bolster your strikeforce. It is recommended to consider dropping Mané or Pelle in favour of one of these higher performing strikers.

The more astute and observant among you may have noticed that there are very few defenders in this area, with Toby Alderweireld being the only exception. Going back to our chart with all our players and just focusing on defenders we can see a number of potential candidates for this. An excellent option is Glen Johnson (He’s the yellow point under Dawson) with a price of only £5.0m and 50 odd points already. Scott Dann too has a good number of points and a relatively low price point. You might notice the large point in the middle of the chart, this being Nathaniel Clyne, who is selected by a disproportionately large number of managers. A much better Liverpool option at a similar price point is Martin Skrtl. Bigger team defenders such as Sagna and Kolarov are excellent options, and the Arsenal defenders make good choices due to their low selection rates. With Monreal being the best of the bunch.

Midfield-wise you’ve got a number of options, dropping Sanchez for Ozil appears to be the obvious choice if you’ve not made the switch. Ross Barkley remains my top signing and I also recommend Phillipe Coutihno or Roberto Firmino if you’re willing to take a risk. Liverpool have phenomenal upcoming fixtures and will be looking to put a run together under Klopp. Kevin De Bruyne is a fantastic choice too and an investment who’s price is only going to go up. He’s been raking in the points and has been involved in most of City’s goals.

So in summary (and this is the TL;DR), who should you be signing? Defense and Midfield have proved key this year so focus on perfecting these at any cost, there’s loads of great options up front for cheap so this isn’t too much of a dilemma if you’re willing to leave out Aguero. If you’re looking to differentiate yourself you should look at these players:

Goalkeepers: Tim Howard (EVE), Jack Butland (STK), Myhill (WBA)

Defenders: Toby Alderwiereld (TOT), Glen Johnson (STK), Martin Skrtl (LIV)

Midfield: Ross Barkley (EVE), Manuel Lanzini (WHU), Marko Arnautovic (STK)

Forwards: Arouna Koné (EVE), Odion Ighalo (WAT), Christian Benteke (LIV)

In terms of more expensive players, it appears you should be dropping Sanchez for Mesut Ozil, I recommend seriously considering one of Firmino or Couthihno (the latter being the safer choice here, but also likely to be selected more) along. Lukaku is an excellent choice for your forward. Defence wise, Smalling continues to impress but is still a bit pricy, if you can’t afford him then Kolarov is an excellent choice, while Bakary Sagna is another cheaper option.

If you want to explore my data for yourself it’s linked here: http://bit.ly/1XxHHTb

Here’s my team as it stands, I’m looking to bring in Coutihno when injury updates are had, as well as seeing if he makes an appearance in the fixture against Southampton tonight.

Here’s my positions from where I stopped playing (Gameweek 3) and where I started again using the analytics (Gameweek 8)

Apologies for sloppy charts and anything I’ve missed, I’m still getting used to the software. I also didn’t consider any external factors effecting players so this is purely a statistical analysis for now. If there’s enough interest I’d love to carry this blog on, maybe on a weekly basis.