The current ratings map

Our next Executive Row Office ratings piece features State Auditors/Comptrollers/Controllers depending on what states call these offices. The primary job of these officers is to audit state funds. 23 states are electing new officers this fall so let’s take a look at the race ratings:

Safe D: CA, IL, MD, MA, NY, VT

These are blue states with Democratic State Auditors. None of these races are changing hands in November.

Lean D: CT, DE, MN

Connecticut: Kevin Lembo

As is mentioned a lot in discussion of Connecticut State politics, the Democratic Party has become considerably unpopular in the Constitution State due to supremely unpopular Governor Dan Malloy. This factor plus a poor national environment meant that Comptroller Kevin Lembo won by just 6 points in 2014. With Malloy even more unpopular in 2018, that could hurt Lembo, but he gets a boost from the national environment this time around, which is why he remains a favorite for re-election likely against Seymour First Selectman Kurt Miller.

Delaware: Open (Wagner)

Delaware’s longtime Republican Auditor, R. Thomas Wagner, is retiring, citing health concerns. This makes the Democrats favorites to pick up the State Auditor office, given Delaware’s status as a blue state. Republicans are running James Spadola, who ran for State Senate in 2016 and lost. He doesn’t appear to have the status needed to hold this office for the Republicans, which means the Democratic nominee Kathy McGuinness is a clear favorite.

Minnesota: Open (Otto)

Rebecca Otto ran for Governor of Minnesota rather than another term as State Auditor, leaving this seat up for grabs. Democrats have dominated statewide elections in Minnesota for over a decade and look for this to continue in 2018, at least in the State Auditor race. Democratic candidate Julie Blaha, the secretary-treasurer of the Minnesota AFL-CIO, has to be considered a favorite over CPA and former State Rep. Pam Myhra due to the national environment and Minnesota’s light blue tint, hence the Lean D rating.

Tossup: MO, NM, OH

Missouri: Nicole Galloway

Galloway and Claire McCaskill are the only two statewide office holding Democrats left in Missouri. Unlike McCaskill, Galloway did not win election to get here, as she was appointed by former Governor Jay Nixon (D) when the old State Auditor, Tom Schweich, tragically committed suicide in early 2015. Galloway is 36 years old and could reasonably be considered a MO Dems rising star similar to Jason Kander if she were to win re-election this fall, but it will not be an easy task. The messy Republican primary in August resulted in attorney Saundra McDowell winning the nomination. Galloway has over $1 M in hand, giving her the cash to fight the Republican nominee and she has the national environment and the recent unpopularity of the MO GOP on her side in her quest to hang on in an increasingly red state. This should be a tight race down to the end (the polls we have confirm that) and it is one of the only executive row offices Democrats could lose anywhere in the country.

New Mexico: Wayne Johnson

Here we have another appointed State Auditor, New Mexico Republican Wayne Johnson. Appointed by Governor Susana Martinez, Johnson faces a similar conundrum to Galloway in that he is also in a state that is moving away from his party. Unlike Galloway, he doesn’t have any state level dynamics or national winds to lean on. Johnson will be facing Brian S. Colon, the former Chair of the New Mexico Democratic Party, someone with the experience and stature to take down Johnson and it should be a close battle, though it’s probably tilting towards Democrats at this time.

Ohio: Open (Yost)

Another incredibly competitive Ohio Executive Row office is the State Auditor, where Incumbent Dave Yost is running for Attorney General, leaving this seat open. Republicans are trying to protect the seat with State Rep. Keith Faber while Democrats have drafted Zack Space, who used to represent Ohio’s 18th Congressional District before losing re-election in 2010 (and then the seat was eliminated in the next redistricting). When he held it from 2007-2011, it was in the southeastern part of the state including Zanesville, Mt. Vernon, and New Philadelphia and was seen as a harbinger of national results (it voted for the House majority party every year from 1954-2013). Given that the modern path to winning Ohio for a Democrat doesn’t really run through this part of the state, having a regional base here is a big boost for Space and he seems to be the clearly stronger candidate, out-raising Faber significantly in the latest reporting period, though he still hasn’t eclipsed him in COH. This is a key race and very winnable for Democrats.

Lean R: IA, NV

Iowa: Mary Mosiman

With Democrats holding Iowa’s Treasurer and AG spots, they will be targeting the Governor’s mansion as well as SoS and Auditor of State. However, this race is shaping up to be the toughest haul for IA Dems, as Incumbent Mary Mosiman won pretty comfortably in 2014. That said, Dems do have a very intriguing candidate in Rob Sand, an attorney who has spent the last decade working with the Attorney General’s office to prosecute crime and corruption. He’s also only in his mid-30s, so like Galloway, he could be seen as a rising star within his state party if he were to claim victory. That still won’t be easy and this race could easily move left to tossup by November, but for now we’ll start it in Lean R.

Nevada: Ron Knecht

Like Iowa, Democrats will be gunning for several executive row offices in Nevada. In fact, all of the offices in that state are held by Republicans, but this one may be the toughest to flip. Knecht won in 2014 by a convincing 16 point margin, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the State Controller is a shoe-in for re-election. The switch in national environments (R+7 to D+5-10) alone will swallow a good chunk from his margin and he gets a solid test from CPA Catherine Byrne. This race has the potential to move columns leftwards, but for now, Lean R seems like a good starting place.

Safe R: AL, AR, ID, IN, NE, OK, SC, SD, TX, WY

These are all very conservative states and most of them have incumbents, making them not really playable for Democrats in November.

Conclusion

You might be wondering why any of these races matter and it’s true that as opposed to SoS or AG, Auditor/Comptroller is a less important office. But it still has some power in state government and more importantly, it helps build a bench. Democrats have been decimated at the state level in the past 10 years, lacking a bench of candidates for more important offices in many states due to the fact they have continually neglected races like these. Claire McCaskill herself started as Missouri’s Auditor before she became a US Senator, as did Bob Casey Jr. in Pennsylvania. Other Democratic Senators like Sherrod Brown, Heidi Heitkamp, and Joe Manchin also had jobs in executive row offices before they made it to the big stage. So keep an eye out for these races and pay attention to potential Democratic gains, which as of right now, the range would be from no change to D+3, but with higher gains possible.