8 signs it's a UAW contract year for Detroit Three

Conspiracy theories. Grandstanding. Worker anxiety.

It's definitely a UAW contract year.

For better or worse, almost every decision and statement the UAW and Detroit Three top executives make will be under intense scrutiny.

The four-year contract between the UAW and the Detroit Three that covers about 137,000 workers expires Sept. 14.

Here are eight signs it's a contract year:

1. Ford's Mexico investment reaction: The UAW's response to Ford's $2.5-billion investment in Mexico prompted a direct contract promise from UAW Vice President Jimmy Settles, who oversees the union's Ford department.

"We will successfully negotiate financial investment, and product commitment, greater than Ford recently announced in their Mexican operations," UAW Vice President Jimmy Settles said.

2. General Motors' generous profit-sharing: GM faced a problem earlier this year. The company could have included the cost of recalling millions of cars with faulty ignition switches in the equation for determining profit-sharing. But the switches, built by a supplier and designed GM engineers, had nothing to do with the performance of workers.

So, GM tossed out a portion of its contractual formula. The result: GM's hourly workers received up to $9,000 in profit-sharing checks -- a record payout that was about $2,000 higher than what the formula called for. GM said it was just doing the right thing and showing appreciation for its workers and the UAW applauded the move. Analysts say GM likely bought some goodwill that will pay off in September.

3. Big (perceived) corporate profits: Auto workers are paying keen attention to the billions of dollars the Detroit Three have been making in recent years and are calling for wage increases.

"We find ourselves in a position to make realistic demands to restore economic prosperity and job security," Rick Ward of UAW Local 685 in Kokomo said during the union's bargaining convention in March.

The profits of automakers will be in the spotlight later this week when GM reports first quarter earnings and next week when Ford and FCA reports its results.

4. GM's $5-billion share repurchase agreement: The automaker, under pressure from a group of hedge funds, agreed to buy back $5 billion in shares in move that benefits Wall Street investors. The UAW's reaction in public was restrained, but analysts say the union will remind the company of its generosity to Wall Street as it pushes for raises.

5. All eyes on executive pay: During the bargaining convention last month, Williams and UAW leaders blasted excessive executive pay, often used as a cudgel during contract talks.

In March, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles disclosed CEO Sergio Marchionne earned more than $38.06 million in 2014 when all of his bonuses and compensation are included.

GM is expected to announce executive compensation for its top executives later this month.

Ford CEO Mark Fields earned $18.6 million in 2014.

6. Jeep Wrangler hanging in the balance: FCA is likely weeks away from saying if it will build the next-generation Jeep Wrangler in Toledo -- an investment likely to exceed $1 billion that would lead to new jobs for whichever community the automaker picks.

Historically, automakers have used major product decisions that generate thousands of jobs either as bargaining chips during contract talks or time the announcement of big investments to influence discussions.

The automaker's Wrangler decision won't have anything to with the upcoming negotiations, according to a person familiar with the automaker's plans. But that's unlikely to stop others from making a connection -- no matter what decision the company makes.

7. Ford continuously touts new hires: Ford, in almost every press release that announces new jobs, reinforces the message that it's meeting the job promises made in 2011 and that a lower starting wage rate for new workers led to investment in the U.S. The often repeated message is a not-so-subtle reminder that a push for higher wages could lead to fewer future automotive jobs in the U.S.

"The entry-level agreement has enabled Ford to invest more than $6.2 billion in its U.S. plants and hire more than 15,000 hourly UAW members -- up from the 12,000 jobs that were promised by 2015 in the contract agreement," Ford said on Feb. 4 when it added 1,550 workers at its Kansas City Assembly Plant.

8. Debate about possible elimination of a shift at Michigan Assembly Plant: There are rumors that Ford is planning to eliminate or suspend one of its shifts at Michigan Assembly Plant where Ford makes the Focus.

U.S. sales of the Focus dropped 14.5% in March. Workers on the UAW's Facebook page say this illustrates the need for the union's leadership to push Ford harder to build more vehicles in the U.S. during this year's contract talks.

There are conspiracy theories as well. Some workers say the company and the union are floating the issue so that the UAW can claim later it found a way to "save" the jobs and that Ford caved in.

As the saying goes, "only in a contract year."

Contact Brent Snavely: 313-222-6512 or bsnavely@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @BrentSnavely