Australians have not repudiated the Morrison Government and delivered the Shorten opposition the mandate for change it has tried to rally.

That was the outcome polling consistently suggested through-out the five-week campaign.

But it's not what Australia's 16 million voters have delivered.

The Coalition is set to embark on a third term of government, but with majority government likely out of reach, it will have to negotiate with a cross-bench to govern in minority.

Labor falls far short

The Labor Party had reached the start of election day hopeful of a significant swing in its favour across Melbourne.

With a swathe of marginal seats within grasp and the Liberals on the nose in November's state election, expectations were high.

Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume. Watch Duration: 3 minutes 47 seconds 3 m 47 s Bill Shorten used his concession speech to announce he was stepping down as Labor leader.

At current counting, Labor looks likely it will only pick up three seats — far short of the half dozen it had hoped to would turn from blue to red.

There has been no uniform swing to sweep electorates from Liberal to Labor and flip the fortunes of the parties.

Where votes have changed, it has been patchy and those turning their backs on the Liberals in Victoria haven't come in the sheer numbers, or in seats with narrow enough margins, to deliver a change.

Queensland was the other east coast state that had the potential to deliver a decisive result for Labor.

The Sunshine State is a more complex political landscape and has proved to be one Labor has struggled to navigate.

The vote has swung strongly to the Coalition in central Queensland.

Ultra-marginal seats like Capricornia have unequivocally repudiated Labor, with Capricornia's returned LNP representative Michelle Landry putting her win down to the ALP's ambiguous position on Adani.

The fate of a coal mine in Queensland has been subject of plenty of political analysis, with vociferous objection to the mining proposal in inner-city seats and determined support for it in regional Queensland.

Labor walked a delicate line attempting to appease both camps and may have paid a political price for it in Queensland.

For its part, the ALP is blaming the LNP's preference deal with Clive Palmer for its disastrous results in the state.

A personal win for Morrison

The widespread support for the LNP in Queensland can also be attributed to the Prime Minister personally.

The clumsy leadership spill that ultimately saw Mr Morrison replace Malcolm Turnbull cost the party electorally (in losing Mr Turnbull's vacated seat of Wentworth) and morally (losing any claim to the high ground over Labor when it comes to leadership stability).

But Liberal Party figures point to Mr Morrison's politics and personal style being more in tune with Queensland sensibilities than his predecessor — one of the reasons given for rolling Mr Turnbull in the first place.

Mr Morrison dedicated time and resources to Queensland during the campaign, right down to the final 24 hours before polls opened.

He has been a better face for the LNP in Queensland, whatever the reservations of the southern states about his political priorities.

Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume. Watch Duration: 1 minute 21 seconds 1 m 21 s Former PM Tony Abbott gives concession speech.

Abbott out, Zali in

One early and undecisive result from the election tonight is the end of the long political career of former Prime Minister Tony Abbott.

Support coalesced around a strong, independent challenger in Zali Steggall — former skier, barrister, mother and, importantly, former Liberal voter.

Mr Abbott diagnosed the cause of his ousting as a realignment of politics, where seats dominated by the working class backing in the Coalition and wealth seats like his own turning to Labor and the Greens.

It is an astounding result, but so far an isolated one.

Fears that independents would march to Canberra on the wave of discontented regional voters hasn't materialised.

While Indi in regional Victoria is still in play, seats such as Cowper and Farrer are safe in Coalition hands.

The Nationals have had a turbulent year, as well as a bollocking at the recent NSW state election, but the party will be celebrating its result tonight.

The Senate will be a thorn in the side

It will be days before the Senate results are finalised, but we can be fairly certain the Coalition won't have the luxury of a majority in the Upper House.

To succeed in prosecuting its centrepiece policy of cutting income taxes, it will need to be able pass legislation through the Upper House.

That will mean dealing with a combination of the Greens, independents and right-wing minor parties, a similar herd of cats that has stymied the Coalition's agenda over the past six years.

In theory, sensible, centrist policies could between the major parties, with strategic compromises made to secure at least modest changes.

Working together, the major parties could eliminate the hostage power of the minor parties.

It could — perhaps should — be an opportunity instead for the major parties to show they can put good policy ahead of obstinate politics.

But that hasn't been the approach in contemporary Australian politics.

Retreat to the tribe is preferred over detente with the enemy.

The Coalition will need more political nous than ever.