President Trump signed his Space Policy Directive 1 today, December 11, the 45th anniversary of when Apollo 17 astronauts Gene Cernan and Harrison “Jack” Schmitt landed on the Moon — the last humans to do so. Surrounded by administration officials, commercial space industry representatives, and current and former astronauts, including Schmitt, the only surviving member of the Apollo 17 crew, Trump promised to return astronauts to the Moon and go on to Mars and beyond. The words echo those of his two Republican predecessors, who did not achieve those goals. The question is whether the third time will be the charm.

During a brief White House ceremony this afternoon, Trump said the directive “will refocus America’s space program on human exploration and discovery. It marks an important step in returning American astronauts to the moon for the first time since 1972 for long-term exploration and use. This time we will not only plant our flag and leave our footprint, we will establish a foundation for an eventual mission to Mars. And perhaps, someday, to many worlds beyond.”

The directive itself modifies language in the existing U.S. National Space Policy issued by the Obama Administration in 2010. It replaces this paragraph in the Obama policy — “Set far-reaching exploration milestones. By 2025, begin crewed missions beyond the moon, including sending humans to an asteroid. By the mid-2030s, send humans to orbit Mars and return them safely to Earth” — with new language.

The text of the Trump directive is as follows:

THE WHITE HOUSE

Office of the Press Secretary FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE December 11, 2017 MEMORANDUM FOR THE VICE PRESIDENT

THE SECRETARY OF STATE

THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

THE SECRETARY OF COMMERCE

THE SECRETARY OF TRANSPORTATION

THE SECRETARY OF HOMELAND SECURITY

THE DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE

THE DIRECTOR OF THE OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

THE ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS

THE ADMINISTRATOR OF THE NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION

THE DIRECTOR OF THE OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY

THE ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR HOMELAND SECURITY AND COUNTERTERRORISM

THE CHAIRMAN OF THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF SUBJECT: Reinvigorating America’s Human Space Exploration Program Section 1 . Amendment to Presidential Policy Directive-4 . Presidential Policy Directive-4 of June 28, 2010 (National Space Policy), is amended as follows: The paragraph beginning “Set far-reaching exploration milestones” is deleted and replaced with the following: “Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations;”. Sec . 2 . General Provisions . (a) Nothing in this memorandum shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect: (i) the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or (ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals. (b) This memorandum shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations. (c) This memorandum is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person. (d) This memorandum shall be published in the Federal Register. DONALD J. TRUMP ###

The new text does not explicitly state that the goal is a human return to the surface of the Moon, differentiating it from Obama Administration policy which involved activities in cislunar space around and near the Moon, but not placing American astronauts on the surface. It is implied, however. Trump stated that he was pledging that Schmitt would “not be the last” American on the Moon and the directive refers to “long term exploration and utilization” of the Moon.

Trump did not set a timeline for returning to the Moon or reaching Mars or mention cost.

Apollo 17 was launched on December 7, 1972 and returned to Earth on December 19. Cernan and Schmitt landed on December 11 while Command Module Pilot Ron Evans orbited above them. It was the sixth and last Apollo mission to land on the Moon successfully. (Apollo 11, 12, 14, 15, 16 and 17 were successful; Apollo 13 suffered a failure enroute to the Moon and the crew could not land, but safely returned to Earth.)

Three other Apollo missions to the Moon were cancelled as America’s fascination with human lunar exploration faded once the United States achieved the goal of beating the Soviet Union there.

Bold goals to continue trips to the Moon and go on to Mars envisioned in the immediate post-Apollo period never gained traction, nor did pronouncements by President George H.W. Bush in 1989 or President George W. Bush in 2004.

President George W. Bush’s plan to return astronauts to the lunar surface by 2020, called Constellation, was cancelled by Obama after a 2009 independent review concluded that NASA would need $3 billion more per year to implement it. Obama decided to focus instead on the “Journey to Mars” with the goal of putting humans in orbit around Mars in the 2030s, bypassing the lunar surface and saving the billions of dollars required to build a lunar landing system and associated lunar surface systems for habitation and exploration.

Congress opposed the cancellation of Constellation on a bipartisan basis. A compromise was enacted in the 2010 NASA Authorization Act. NASA would still build a new big rocket, now called the Space Launch System (SLS) with a different design from Constellation’s Ares V, and a crew spacecraft to go with it. The crew spacecraft remained the same — Orion.

Those programs have been ongoing throughout the Obama Administration and NASA is well on its way building a transportation system for sending humans beyond low Earth orbit, whatever the destination. The first launch of SLS/Orion, without a crew, is currently expected in the late 2019-mid 2020 time frame. The first launch with a crew is intended to take place no later than 2023.

Nonetheless, completing those programs and building new capabilities needed for human trips to the lunar surface will cost a lot of money. That has been the downfall of previous efforts.

Time will tell if the Trump Administration requests the requisite funding and if Congress appropriates it. The President’s FY2019 budget request, due to Congress the first Monday in February, will hold important clues.

One difference is that the private sector has begun developing its own systems that could play a role in supporting humans missions to the Moon and elsewhere, such as SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy and Blue Origin’s New Glenn launch vehicles. International partners also are interested. An updated version of the Global Exploration Roadmap, developed by the United States and about a dozen other countries, is due to be released next month.

The relative roles of the U.S. government, the commercial sector, and potential international partners were not discussed today. The tenor of the remarks by the President and Vice President were rather nationalistic, but the directive does call for an “innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners.”

Statements issued after the White House ceremony illustrate how different constituencies are viewing the announcement.

The Commercial Spaceflight Federation (CSF), whose President, Eric Stallmer, was present at the White House ceremony, noted the investments made by the commercial space industry “for lunar transport, operations and resource utilization” and called on NASA “to leverage these capabilities … and to partner with industry through flexible, innovative contracting approaches.”

Astrobotic, which is developing capabilities to deliver small payloads to the lunar surface with its Peregrine robotic spacecraft, called for NASA to respond with a “Lunar Surge” of robotic missions starting in 2020 prior to a human return.

The Coalition for Deep Space Exploration (CDSE) “enthusiastically” supports U.S. leadership in returning to the Moon “as exemplified by Orion, SLS” and NASA’s conceptual Deep Space Gateway, a small space station that would be placed in orbit around the Moon. CDSE represents a broad range of space companies including SLS prime contractor Boeing and Orion prime contractor Lockheed Martin. Its President Mary Lynne Dittmar also was at the White House event today. The CDSE statement seems to reflect the lack of clarity about whether the intent is to return to the lunar surface or only operate near the Moon, repeatedly referring to “the region of the Moon.” For example, Dittmar said the directive “affirms U.S. leadership in human exploration, returning American astronauts to the region of the Moon, while laying the foundation for eventual missions to Mars and beyond.”

Lockheed Martin asserted the directive will “foster a thriving new space economy that will create jobs and drive innovation here on Earth.”

Several members of Congress were at the White House event, including Rep. Lamar Smith (R-TX), chairman of the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, and committee members Reps. Brian Babin (chairman of the Space Subcommittee), Mo Brooks (R-AL), and Bill Posey (R-FL). Rep. John Culberson (R-TX), chairman of the House appropriations subcommittee that funds NASA also was there. The only Senator present was Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL), one of the architects of the 2010 NASA Authorization Act and one of the Senate’s leading voices in support of human space exploration. He flew on the space shuttle in 1986 when he was a member of the House of Representatives.

Other attendees included Apollo 11 former astronaut Buzz Aldrin, former astronaut Sandy Magnus, current astronauts Peggy Whitson and Christina Koch, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Paul Selva, and Acting NASA Administrator Robert Lightfoot. [The full list is posted here.]

What the new directive ultimately means is difficult to assess in the near term. Presidential statements pronouncing bold goals for the U.S. space program have come and gone. The glimmer of light that this time might be different comes from the investment that is already underway in SLS and Orion, the growth of the commercial space sector that could help in implementation, and the interest of many other countries in participating in whatever human exploration program follows the International Space Station. But the perennial hurdle is money. The President’s FY2019 budget request will be the first test of the Trump Administration’s true interest.

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