Liberal party warned against complacency and told not to ‘overlook that the margin of victory was very small’

This article is more than 9 months old

This article is more than 9 months old

Scott Morrison navigated the government through a “narrow” path to victory but was aided by Labor’s “many missteps” and a strong contrast with Bill Shorten and Labor’s policies, the Liberal party review has found.

A summary of the review of the 2019 election, released on Friday, warned against “complacency”, suggesting the Liberal party must improve its candidate selection and rebuild in Victoria and New South Wales or risk defeat at the next election.

It also proposed a broad suite of electoral reforms including voter identification, restricting volunteers around polling booths and consideration of optional preferential voting.

The review, conducted by former senator Arthur Sinodinos and New Zealand senior minister Stephen Joyce, found the budget provided a “significant turning point” after which the government overturned a six-point deficit in opinion polls through “a flawlessly executed campaign strategy and a poor Labor party campaign”.

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“A much stronger performance in government and a stronger starting point will be needed to repeat the victory in 2022,” it warned.

“The prime minister’s personal campaign was a core element in the success of the wider campaign strategy”, which was to highlight the contrast with Shorten and the policies of the Labor party.

“The strongest single message of the 2019 campaign across all voters was Bill Shorten was ‘the Bill Australia can’t afford’.”

The Labor review, released in November, found that it lost because of weak strategy, with a suite of spending initiatives but little overarching narrative, poor adaptability and an unpopular leader.

However, the Liberal review said “it is important not to overlook that the margin of victory was very small”.

“The review recommends a particular focus in Victoria, and to some extent, NSW.

“Unless the party rebuilds and recovers lost ground in Melbourne and surrounding areas, its path to victory in each election will remain worryingly narrow,” relying on its large margin in Queensland where the Liberal National party won 58% of the two-party preferred vote and 23 of 30 seats.

The review noted that 10 Liberal candidates had to be disendorsed in the campaign, many with dual citizenship problems and others for inappropriate social media posts, including Jessica Whelan in the winnable Tasmanian seat of Lyons.

It recommended the party preselect candidates in marginal seats 10 to 12 months out from the likely next election date “to ensure candidates have sufficient time to obtain a strong personal profile to contest the election”.

Application forms should cover prospective candidates’ “citizenship status, pecuniary interests, professional relationships and digital histories”, and state branches should adopt better vetting practices.

“The Liberal party acknowledge the downside risks of three-cornered contests in marginal seats and work with the Nationals to minimise their number by agreement at each election, so that the Coalition parties together maximise their representation in federal parliament,” it said.

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The Liberals lost the seat of Gilmore in southern NSW in a four-cornered contest between Labor, Liberal and the Nationals and the disaffected Liberal Grant Schultz.

Parliament should crack down on “boorish behaviour around polling booths that makes the act of voting an ordeal for some voters, including limiting the presence of volunteers to those linked with a particular candidate”.

The proposed reform is clearly targeted at the progressive campaign group GetUp, which helped oust Tony Abbott in Warringah but failed to remove Liberals in its other target seats, including the home affairs minister, Peter Dutton, in Dickson.

The review called on parliament to to require voters to “present an approved form of ID when casting their vote, and electronic rolls to ensure voters cannot vote in more than one location in one election”.

It also proposed the Liberal party “undertake analytical work to determine the opportunities and risks of a move to optional preference campaign for federal elections, before making any decision to request such a change”.