The amount of time water has been on the levees and the potential for higher water levels are concerns for Todd Kilpatrick, Levee District 12 commissioner for Tulsa County.

“We are holding at the status quo, and with help from the National Guard, we’ve got more monitoring and it’s running as smooth as we can expect,” he said Sunday. “We’re just hoping we don’t see an increase in the volume of water in the river. ... The longer the duration of the water on the levees, the more your failure rate goes up, as well, so that can get you as well as the higher water can.”

Flooding is even more severe at Muskogee, where the Verdigris and Grand rivers flow into the Arkansas. The river is forecast now to crest at 46.5 feet, just 1.7 feet shy of the 48.2-foot record.

“Unregulated runoff” entering the lake from local tributaries and the Cimarron River pushed up the need for a release, Williams said.

The Corps’ gauge in the Cimarron at Ripley showed an increase from 25,000 cfs Saturday to 75,000 cfs Sunday.

Williams said hydrologists are looking ahead to a change to a “summertime weather pattern” by mid-week. “It’s all based on timing, and it’s a delicate balance,” he said. “We need to get through the next two or three days.”