For the last four or five years now I have been the firm believer in the zero-RB draft strategy, and I’ve had great success with it. For those unaware, this strategy is build around drafting wide receivers early (usually for each of the first 5 round) and waiting on running backs (typically rookies or pass-catching backs) until the 6th round and onward.

Because the running back position is becoming even more top heavy than it has been in previous years, I have seen many fantasy experts going away from the strategy and no longer recommending it. The top fantasy RBs are simply so much better than the rest of the position that the competitive advantage it gives you to have one of the top 6 or 7 best RBs is too good to pass on. While that is completely true, I will still be sticking with the zero-RB strategy in 2019 for a number of reasons:

Running backs carry more risk

The main reason I stay away from running backs in the early rounds is the risk factor. RBs get injured at a much higher rate than WRs generally like to have my studs playing every week. They are also more dependent on game-script, which means they could have low-scoring weeks, especially if they play for worse teams.

I also feel like there are so many questions surrounding some of the top level RBs that you might be better off staying away, instead of taking a shot at someone who could be elite (that’s what you want to do in the 10th round, not in the first). Last year Le’Veon Bell was a top 3 pick until a very short time until the season started – he never saw the field in 2018. This year you have major question marks about Ezekiel Elliot (holdout), Melvin Gordon (holdout) and Todd Gurley (knee issues), so I’m certain that those are players I will stay away from in my drafts.

The wide receiver position has more depth

The wide receiver position has much more depth which means that in rounds 3 to 5 or 6 there simply are a lot more players that I like at the position. While this is also one of the best arguments against using the strategy, I believe that having a large group of receivers you can depend on week in and week out allows you to pursue high upside options (namely at RB) late in draft, which I see as a better option than having create WR depth in the 12th or 13th round.

Running back are more dependent on situation

Every year league winning RBs are found on the waiver wire because they suddenly find themselves in a great position to receive carries. The example I like to use from 2018 is Gus Edwards. Nobody was talking about him before the season, nobody thought he was supremely talented (neither did his team, the Baltimore Ravens) but suddenly the offense changed and he became the starter and helped many people win their fantasy leagues. As mentioned earlier, running backs get injured more often and in that case there will often be a back-up who suddenly becomes a full time starter.

Whenever I use this strategy I always like to target rookies and pass-catching backs as my running backs. Pass-catching backs are very valuable relative to their draft position because each reception in most leagues is worth between .5 and 1 point in itself and it helps you get a nice floor, which is what you want from your RB when your WRs are carrying your team. We see rookie running backs break out every year, and very few of them are drafted earlier than the 7th round. Case and point: last year in my league of record I drafted WRs in the first 6 round, drafted Sony Michel in the 8th and James White in the 11th and ended up winning the league. I know that is pretty much the best case scenario, but it’s a good example of how the strategy can pan out.

The case against zero-RB

The best argument against using the strategy is the competitive advantage you get from having a top-tier RB. Not only is there a huge difference between the RB1 and RB20 but you will also find that the top 5 RBs typically score more points than the top 5 WRs (and after all, fantasy is about scoring points).

The depth at the WR position is another argument I already mentioned. You can find so many capable WRs after the 10th round that they will give you a solid depth that allows you to pursue more elite RB options early in the draft. The point being that an RB drafted in the 3rd round will, on average, outperform an RB drafted in the 13th round by a larger margin than WRs drafted in the same rounds would.

It’s also important to mention that the zero-RB strategy does not work in all league formats. Many of my leagues have 3 starting WRs plus 2 flex positions, which means that I can start my top 5 WRs every week. In NFL.com standard leagues you can only start 3 (2 WRs + 1 flex) you probably want to stay away from this strategy, or at least only draft WRs in the first 3 or 4 rounds. By now most league have become PPR leagues, which means that players get points for receptions (usually between 5. and 1), but if you’re playing in a league that give 0 points for receptions you might also want to stay away from the zero-RB strategy because this scoring system makes RBs more valuable compared to WRs.