With four-fifths of voters living in urban areas, any Conservative lead in the countryside could be wiped out. It’s not just about pensioners v the young and north v south – attitudes are strikingly polarised between cities and rural Britain

Even for those familiar with it, Britain’s map of parliamentary constituencies remains a disquieting sight. It’s an almost entirely blue canvas, with splashes of yellow in the south-west of England and west of Scotland, but also dots of red, largely scattered across central Scotland and the north, with another smudge over London. Labour’s 259 MPs might make up 40% of seats in the House of Commons, yet they represent little more than 10% of the country’s total landmass. But it’s here in the cities, in all these red dots, where so many of the electorate live.

As Britain expects another inconclusive election result – with no party winning a majority, it has become common to talk of the deep socio-economic divisions running through the UK, and their associated political attitudes: Scotland v England, pensioners v the young and, of course, the perennial issue of the north v the south. But in many ways it is the differences between Britain’s cities and its countryside where attitudes are most strikingly polarised.

Much is made of Labour’s ‘southern problem’, where across the entire south-east and south-west regions the party has just eight out of 139 MPs. But in 2010 they were still able to retain seats in the cities of Oxford, Bristol and Exeter. The same is true of the Tories’ supposed inability to win in the north of England. As Neil O’Brien and Anthony Wells observe in a political geography study for Policy Exchange: “Commentators often talk about a north-south divide in voting. But the division is not simply to do with the north but northern cities.” In Greater Manchester, with a population of 2.7 million, only two of the 27 MPs are Conservative, one fewer than the Liberal Democrats. By contrast, even in the Blair landside victories of 1997 and 2001, much of the northern counties of rural Cheshire and Yorkshire remained solidly Tory.

The tendency for urban areas, and cities in particular, to lean to the political left is a notably consistent trend

According to Dr Michelle Harrison, head of political and social practice at market research agency TNS Global, we shouldn’t expect the forthcoming election to be any different. “Our most recent public opinion data from the national level suggests Labour is on 35% in urban constituencies and 20% in rural ones, while the Tories are at 43% in rural and 31% in urban constituencies.” With more than four-fifths of the electorate living in urban areas, the substantial Conservative lead in the countryside is almost entirely wiped out to give them, in this poll, just a 1% lead overall.

The tendency for urban areas, and cities in particular, to lean to the political left is a notably consistent trend, one that has held since the beginnings of the organised labour movement, and which seems to have survived post-industrialisation, population contraction and expansion, gentrification and contrasting economic fortunes.

Manchester City Council has been continuously held by Labour since the 1972 reorganisation of local government. In the case of Glasgow, Sheffield, Newcastle, Liverpool, Hull and many inner London boroughs it is the same, albeit with short spells of Liberal Democrat control. While other cities such as Leeds and Birmingham have occasionally had Conservative-led councils, they too have been largely dominated by Labour.

In this, the UK is by no means unique. At the last US presidential election, cities with populations of more than one million voted decisively for Obama, while smaller metropolitan and rural areas voted equally strongly for Republican candidate Mitt Romney. It is similar across Europe, where tensions between conservative rural populations and the radical left in cities such as Paris, Marseille, Hamburg and Berlin have been an enduring feature of French and German history for two centuries.

According to Harrison, differences in political affiliation reflect well-documented demographic splits between urban and rural areas, with those living in the countryside more likely to be white, older and to have been born in the UK. Surveys repeatedly show that attitudes between these groups differ on a range of issues, from inclusion in the European Union, to the environment. If anything, she sees this becoming more pronounced: “Some cities have a strong identity or brand, and their political history and culture has played a large role in shaping this, whether it is Liverpool, Brighton or Lewisham. Increasingly, those who are able, are choosing where they want to live and identifying themselves by these choices.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Ukip supporters await the arrival of the party’s leader Nigel Farage on a campaign visit to South Okendon in Essex. Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Harrison also highlights the importance of ethnicity, which remains one of the strongest indicators of voting intention. In the 2010 election, the Conservatives won just 16% of the ethnic minority vote and while minorities might only represent a 10th of the electorate as a whole, they are disproportionately based in cities, making up 40% of the population in London and Birmingham.

The very nature of urban living makes at least some level of socio-democracy a necessity Richard Barbrook

Harrison also recognises that not only do cities attract diverse demographic groups, it is possible that the nature of the urban experience also fosters an outlook more often associated with the political left. Dr Richard Barbrook, senior lecturer in politics at the University of Westminster, who has studied the political and cultural attitudes of “new professionals” working in fields such as technology and media, agrees: “On the basis of income and occupation, you might expect many of east London’s technology entrepreneurs to vote Conservative. But it is rarely the case. They are just as likely to vote Green.”

This is partly the legacy of the cultural and political battles fought a generation ago. “The Conservative party is still associated not only with the deindustrialisation of the 1980s, but also conflicts over race and culture. Many of the equality campaigns led by the Greater London Council (GLA) and the so called ‘loony left’ have become the mainstream of urban political identity.”

For Barbrook, though, the political economy of cities goes beyond social liberalism. Rather, the very nature of urban living “makes at least some level of socio-democracy a necessity: whether it is infrastructure, local services or simply that people are continually interacting. When it comes to planning, parking and pollution the need for regulation and government to intervene and make collective decisions becomes essential. By contrast, in rural areas, even though they receive considerable public subsidy, it is much easier to hold to values of self-reliance and independence.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest People watching the live leaders’ TV debate on a big screen outside the ITV Studios in Salford Quays, Greater Manchester. Photograph: Steve Parsons/PA

If this really is the case then, whatever the outcome of the election in May, the longer-term prospects for conservatism could be bleak as the world becomes increasingly urban, unless it can successfully respond and reposition itself. Following Ukip’s poor performance in London’s 2014 local elections, its spokeswoman Suzanne Evans acknowledged that the party struggled to get its message across to the “media-savvy, well-educated population” and that London was “very different from the rest of the country”. This is not just the Ukip view – big cities, and especially London, are frequently dismissed as political anomalies and cultural bubbles, disconnected from the more authentic heartlands which make up the rest of the UK.

For Britain, at least, what has been called 'the urban century' may also turn out to be a progressive one

In fact, it might be more helpful to see them not so much as outliers, but rather as harbingers: the rapidly growing, ethnically diverse urban centres that will come to dominate the political economy of the UK over the next 50 years. More than half of British people now live in cities, with the populations of the largest such as London, Manchester and Birmingham all increasing by more than 10% over the past decade.

London alone is now home to 15% of the country and it is difficult to see how any political party will again command a parliamentary majority unless it can appeal to these citizens in significant numbers. For Britain, at least, what has been called “the urban century” may also turn out to be a progressive one.

Tom Campbell is the author of The Planner, published by Bloomsbury Circus

Whether you’re based in the UK or elsewhere, how has living in a city affected the way you vote? Share your thoughts and experiences in the comments below

