During the past three seasons at club level, the Reynolds kicking game has been the best in the NRL. The NSW players should be conscious of working him into good position for clearing kicks. He should be the "go-to" man for all attacking kick options at Queensland's end of the field. In the hot seat: Blues halfback Adam Reynolds shapes as the man who can make all the difference in Origin I on Wednesday night. Credit:Getty Images The ball has to go to Reynolds. It's his job, make sure the service to him is spot on. If every player knows that Reynolds is the man to handle the fifth-tackle options, they can support every kick he produces. If everyone wants a turn at kicking the ball on tackle five, it will simply turn into a rabble. The same goes for goal-kicking. I guess opinions will be divided on whether Reynolds or James Maloney is the best man for the job. Both are great kickers and there is nothing between them. However, because goal-kicking is very much a part of Adam Reynolds make-up, and because we are going to rely so heavily on his general play kicking, then I think NSW should hand him the responsibility of the goal-kicking as well. It keeps him in the game and a couple of good kicks between the posts will also do wonderful things for his confidence. Just my thoughts. 2. Queensland should not be winning this game

If we put the game III result from last season out of our minds and purely concentrate on the teams that have been announced for this game, there's no way Queensland should be starting the series with a victory. During the past 10 years, experts have pointed to the outstanding Queensland back line players as the difference between the two states. Generally, it was considered that if the Queensland forward pack could hold their own against the Blues, it would be the brilliance of their halves and the speed players out wide who would do the damage. Tonight's back line does not have that formidable look about it. If anything I think the NSW team has the edge in this department. I am also prepared to say there is absolutely no way this Queensland forward pack should be able to get over the top of the NSW boys. The wet weather and slippery playing surface will only make it more difficult for some of these Queensland players to perform. Given the fact that a number of Queenslanders are terribly out of form in club football, I don't think that suddenly pulling on the Maroon jumper will solve all their issues. Obviously the Queensland side still has Johnathan Thurston and Cameron Smith, two of the greatest rugby league players of all time, guiding this team around the park. However, I can't see anything that Queensland will throw at the Blues tonight that a competent NSW Origin team shouldn't be able to handle. In all honesty, Queensland should not be winning this game. 3. NSW can certainly lose it Having said that Queensland should not be winning this game, NSW are quite capable of losing it. Selfishness and a lack of a sense of "team" have plagued NSW Origin campaigns far too often during the past decade. If they simply try to play the same style of structured rugby league that we see in club football every week in the NRL, then NSW will play right into Queensland's hands.

If individuals put their own personal performance above that of their teammates and the common cause, again, they will be easy prey for this Queensland side. It's one thing to spend a week in camp together talking it up in the media about the spirit of the team and how much the Blue jersey means to you. It's another thing to go out there and play with a selflessness and team mentality that actually makes a significant contribution to the overall team performance. If the NSW players are prepared to play for each other; if they value excellence and attention to detail; if they are prepared to support each other on every play, every minute, for the full 80 minutes; they will beat Queensland. If they go out and play for themselves and their own position within the team, they will just be another losing statistic in this long-running battle. NSW missed a trick in the 2015 series. Credit:Getty Images 4. NSW should've won last year's series

I know many of you can't get last year's game III flogging out of your mind when assessing the Blue's winning prospects tonight. It was an emotionally draining experience seeing the Blue jersey embarrassed in such a manner. However, if you think back to the opening two games of the 2015 series, NSW should have had it all wrapped up after game II. They were beaten by only one point in game I in Sydney. Firstly, they should have sealed it all before it got down to a field goal shootout. Secondly, the Blues squandered several opportunities to get in good position for a one pointer to seal the match. Finally, it took the Queenslanders only one go at getting it right for Cooper Cronk to land the match winner. NSW were then victorious with a dominant victory in the second match to level the series. They then went to Suncorp Stadium for the decider; and we all know what happened there. There is something about the build-up to that performance that's been eating at me ever since. NSW got their preparation terribly wrong. For Queensland, the stars pretty much aligned for them leading into that last match. I don't think they can ever recreate the emotion they felt leading into that decider. It was a big factor in their performance in the final winning margin. They can't do that again. Hopefully the Blues learnt their lesson, too. There was a lot not to like about the way they prepared for that game. 5. A quick catch up on the statistics so far

Where are we up to in the long-running State of Origin battle? So far there have been 105 Origin matches played. Queensland have won 56, NSW 47, with two matches drawn. At ANZ Stadium in Sydney there have been 23 matches and the Blues have dominated winning on 15 occasions. Queensland have won 19 Origin series to NSW 13. The Maroons have scored 1762 points (304 tries, 274 goals, 11 field goals) to the Blues 1618 points (275 tries, 258 goals 13 field goals). Queensland has won the series 3-0 on four occasions. NSW has swept the series three times. During Queensland's remarkable decade of excellence, they have scored 588 points to NSW's 413, winning nine of the past 10 series, and 20 of the past 30 matches played. 6. Final verdict

I definitely see a NSW win. I think if every NSW player plays their part in the defensive line, they can restrict Queensland to a very low score. This will place less pressure on the Blue's attacking game and allow them to play a simple, relaxed style of football in attack, without the pressure of trying to conjure up a lot of miracle plays to score points. Patience and perseverance will be the keys. With the "big blue" crowd at ANZ Stadium cheering them on, my crystal ball sees a final score of NSW 19 Queensland 12. Enjoy your Origin football everyone.