The likelihood of a hung parliament makes tactical voting more important than in the past. Here is how it might affect the election outcome

This article is more than 5 years old

This article is more than 5 years old

Neither Labour nor the Conservatives are likely to win an outright majority on 7 May. The prospect of a hung parliament means that every seat each party wins will make a difference in the battle to build a coalition government with a majority in the House of Commons.

Election 2015: Where should you vote tactically? Read more

This makes tactical voting an even more important issue than in other elections. People may vote not for who they want to win in their constituency but to block another party from taking the seat, to help dictate the shape of the government. Labour voters might settle for an SNP MP in order to block a Tory; Conservatives might back a Lib Dem in order to block a Labour win.

No seat better exemplifies the potential impact of tactical voting than Nick Clegg’s constituency of Sheffield Hallam. According to an ICM/Guardian poll, half of Conservatives are set to vote for the Lib Dem leader in order to keep Labour out. The scale of that tactical vote is remarkable.

Deciding how to vote tactically is a risky process. Here is a rough no-guarantees guide to tactical voting.

To get a Labour-led government

In most constituencies, simply vote Labour.



In some Scottish seats where the Lib Dems and the Tories are better placed than Labour, don’t vote Labour as it risks splitting the vote on the left. Vote SNP to keep the Tories and Lib Dems out and maximise Miliband’s chances of running a government supported by the Scottish nationalists. These include all Lib Dem-held seats - such as Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey, Gordon, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, and Fife North East – and Conservative-held Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale.



In Dumfries and Galloway, Labour and the Conservatives are virtually tied behind the SNP, so you have a choice: vote Labour and risk the Tories winning, or vote SNP if you think that’s better than a Tory win.

In English seats where the Lib Dems are defending from the Tories and Labour is a distant third, Labour voters might choose to vote for the Lib Dems to keep the Tories out. Although this won’t make a difference to the overall coalition arithmetic (assuming Tory-Lib Dem is the frontrunner), it could affect whether Labour or the Conservatives emerge as the largest party, which could help their claim to be the most legitimate option to govern. Such constituencies include Cornwall North, Cheadle, St Ives, Taunton Deane and North Dorset.

Labour voters who really want to minimise the Tories’ share of seats could consider voting Ukip in Boston and Skegness, Rochester and Strood, South Basildon and East Thurrock and in Castle Point.



Don’t vote for the Greens except in Brighton Pavilion, which they already hold. Due to the first-past-the-post voting system, a vote for the Greens takes overwhelmingly from Labour, so anywhere else helps the Conservatives.



To get a Conservative-led government...

In most constituencies, simply vote Conservative.

In seats that the Lib Dems are defending from Labour, vote Lib Dem. These include Sheffield Hallam, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Birmingham Yardley, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Cambridge.

In Great Grimsby and Rotherham, where Ukip are challenging Labour and polling better than the Tories, vote Ukip to help the Tories form a government.

And in Scotland, Conservative supporters should vote for the Lib Dems in seats that Nick Clegg’s party is defending from the SNP – with the exceptions of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, which the Scottish Conservatives could gain, and of course Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, which the Tories currently hold.

You can find polling in your constituency and a map of current constituency projections here. We will be releasing a complete interactive guide to tactical voting on Tuesday.