For a few weeks last summer, you would have been forgiven for thinking the United States was racing headlong into a recession. Financial markets were in turmoil, once-confident business leaders were suddenly jittery and seemingly every financial news outlet was warning that the economy was in trouble.

As the year comes to a close, the fever seems to have broken. The stock market has rallied. Job growth has remained strong and consumers have continued to spend. Forecasters still think the economy will slow next year, but for now, at least, they expect the longest economic expansion on record to continue.

What happened? One possibility is that we dodged a bullet: The economy really did come close to the brink, but then the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, President Trump toned down his trade rhetoric (at least temporarily) and the risks of a recession abated. It is also possible that those risks were never as great as they had appeared.

Back in July, I highlighted several indicators to watch for signs that a recession was imminent, or even already underway. As is so often the case in economics, they told a complicated and not altogether consistent story. Still, it is worth checking on each of those indicators to see what they are saying now.