Scott Morrison will arrive in Washington at the end of this week to a fanfare.

Key points: Scott Morrison hasn't been able to secure a bilateral meeting with Xi Jinping

Scott Morrison hasn't been able to secure a bilateral meeting with Xi Jinping He has however been invited to a state dinner with US President Donald Trump

He has however been invited to a state dinner with US President Donald Trump The failure to net a bilateral meeting with Mr Xi stems from Australia and China's icy relations

The White House will, quite literally, roll out the red carpet for Australia, a perennial friend and ally.

President Donald Trump gifted Mr Morrison an official visit replete with the rare accoutrement of a state dinner, only the second he has hosted and the first for an Australian leader since the Howard-Bush era.

It's a striking contrast to the hospitality from China's President Xi Jinping.

There's no red carpet in Beijing for Australia.

There's not even an invitation in the mail.

Mr Morrison hasn't been able to get a comparatively measly bilateral meeting with his Chinese counterpart.

The best he has managed is a chat on the sidelines of the G20 — the diplomatic equivalent of bailing someone up in the corridor.

Morrison's inherited the deep freeze

Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and Mr Xi met for a bilateral talk during the G20 Forum in Hangzhou. ( Supplied: Twitter )

When Mr Morrison became Prime Minister, he inherited a problem.

Australia is in the freezer with China, and while there's been a thaw since the nadir during Malcolm Turnbull's prime ministership, relations are still at the icy end of the political thermometer.

Successive Australian governments have decided they don't have to choose between the United States and China, respectively the nation's primary security ally and economic partner.

The strategy has been to try to straddle the growing gulf between the two superpowers by keeping a foot in both camps.

But the dinner party settings tell a different story: the US is warmly embracing Australia, while China is turning a cold shoulder.

Mr Xi has not invited Australia's PM to China yet, and Mr Morrison's team is cautious to ask. ( AP: Nicolas Asfouri, pool )

Mr Turnbull was the last Australian prime minister to visit China, back in September 2016.

In the three intervening years, the Coalition vigorously prosecuted the need for foreign interference laws and banned telco giant Huawei from supplying equipment to Australia's 5G mobile network.

Along with a litany of consular and diplomatic difficulties (notable amongst them, Mr Turnbull's quoting of Mao to make a political point to China), those policies prompted China to put Australia in the deep freeze.

There's been a slow thawing since then. Ministerial meetings have resumed. Foreign Minister Marise Payne met her counterpart, Wang Yi, last month on the sidelines of an ASEAN summit, which followed Mr Morrison's meeting with Premier Li Keqiang the previous year.

But the detente has not extended to the highest levels, with a leader-to-leader meeting still beyond Mr Morrison's reach.

The agreement struck in 2013 between then prime minister Julia Gillard and Mr Xi to hold annual leaders' meetings is now little more than a dusty relic of a past era.

Courting a great power requires patience

More recent Australian leaders have inherited a well-kept bilateral relationship with the US. ( AP: Susan Walsh )

If the reticence to meet is just a matter of a little more water needing to pass under the bridge, then a formal bilateral meeting could be a possibility at the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Chile in November.

It would be an incremental, but important, development.

But amongst the defence and strategic establishment in Canberra, there's a view that Australia's position on Huawei remains a test.

Excluding Huawei entirely from the development of the 5G network was a leading move among the Five Eyes intelligence alliance that includes the US, United Kingdom, Canada and New Zealand.

One well-placed observer told me it's likely Mr Xi will want to see some evidence Mr Morrison has changed tack from the Turnbull government's approach.

"That's the way great powers work: you don't get a visit with Xi unless you jump through a few hoops."

If a change to the Huawei position is what it takes to secure a leaders' meeting, they won't be in each other's company any time soon.

Mr Morrison has shown no inclination to back down.

Although the policy positions haven't changed, Mr Morrison has been more cautious and disciplined in his words, particularly when abroad.

He's distanced himself from the US trade war rhetoric whilst broadly supporting the need for reform to the World Trade Organisation — a more conciliatory position.

That's part deft diplomacy and part economic necessity. The reason Mr Morrison's relationship with Mr Xi matters so much is because the national economy relies on China's purchases of our three biggest exports — iron ore, coal and education.

Canberra's revolving door partly to blame

There had been four other prime ministers since Mr Xi took power in 2012. ( ABC News/AAP )

It's fair to say Mr Morrison would very much like an invitation from Beijing to appear in his inbox.

There has not been a formal request from Canberra to Beijing, but the channels are being kept conspicuously open.

The Prime Minister would not initiate an offer unless he's certain to get a positive response, at risk of losing face and making an already troubled relationship even more awkward.

That leaves Mr Morrison hanging.

One might understand foreign leaders not rushing to get to know Australian prime ministers given their propensity to be ousted in quick succession.

As Foreign Minister Senator Payne told me: "The Prime Minister was only re-elected in May."

She was quick to point to the brief chat Mr Morrison and Mr Xi had at the sidelines of the G20 as evidence of good relations.

Nor would one expect Mr Morrison to be afforded the 'state visit plus' that Mr Xi laid out for Mr Trump early in his presidency — middle-power status doesn't warrant the same level of attention (and clearly such a reception is no guarantor of good relations).

But official state visits are both diplomatic bargaining chips and a hard yardstick of power and importance.

Inviting Mr Morrison to dine at the White House is a strong signal of Australia's place as a critical ally of the Trump administration.

That Mr Morrison will be lucky to have a chat to Mr Xi during a coffee break at the next major international meeting speaks just as loudly.

Mr Morrison's missing invite isn't through lack of effort or desire on Canberra's behalf. Beijing is holding him at bay.