1/ 100,000 x increase in performance from CPU to ASIC created exponential centralization in bitcoin mining

2/ Once we got to 16nm ASICs, the exponential performance increase is over. Now Moore's law is "slow" by comparison, 2 x every 18 mo.

3/ The halving will be the last straw wiping out anyone not at or near Moore's law optimum efficiency/density. One upgrade cycle from parity

4/ After which, mining centralization may stop or even reverse itself. Operating risk, power risk, become bigger factors

5/ Consumer level mining at large scale re-appears, as it decentralizes risk of access to reliable electricity & everyone has same ASICs

6/ Bottom line: The recent past in mining is discontinuous and not predictive of the short term future of mining. Moore's law = great wall