UK prime minister expected to argue that holding vote before final EU deal is agreed would be premature and misleading

Theresa May is expected to refuse a new Scottish independence referendum unless it is held after the UK has quit the EU.

The Scottish secretary and other UK government sources indicated on Wednesday that the prime minister was prepared for a drawn-out battle with Nicola Sturgeon’s government over the referendum’s timing and the question that will be asked.

David Mundell told the Herald newspaper: “It would be impossible for people in the timescale suggested by Nicola Sturgeon to make a reasoned view and, therefore, have a legal, fair and decisive referendum as we did in 2014 on the basis of the facts as they would be aware of them at that point.

“If you are saying you want the referendum because of Brexit, then you have to know what the arrangement is that the UK has secured in relation to leaving the EU and how that has been delivered and, of course, you need to know what the SNP alternative to that proposal is.”



Sturgeon revealed on Monday she wants to hold the referendum between autumn 2018 and spring 2019, ideally before the UK formally signs a Brexit deal, expected in late March 2019.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Independence supporters gather in George Square, Glasgow, after Sturgeon’s announcement on Monday. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

A UK government source added on Wednesday that May would wait to respond until she had received formal notification from the first minister setting out precisely how and when the Scottish government wants to stage the vote.

May is expected to argue that it would be premature and misleading to hold the vote before a final deal – with details on trade and immigration – is signed.

The prime minister clashed with the Scottish National party MP Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh during prime minister’s questions over Sturgeon’s authority to demand the referendum.



Referring to Sturgeon’s manifesto pledge to stage a referendum if the UK quits the EU, Ahmed-Sheikh said the first minister had won the largest vote in Holyrood’s history in the last Scottish election. “Does she agree that governments should stick to their manifesto promises, and if so she can’t object to the first minister sticking to hers?” she asked.

May retorted that Sturgeon headed a minority government and implied she had lost both the Scottish independence referendum in 2014 and the one on EU membership in 2016. She said Alex Salmond, the then SNP leader, had described the first referendum “as a once-in-a-generation vote”.

Under the Scotland Act, Sturgeon must seek the approval of Westminster under a section 30 order to allow her to hold a referendum. She is waiting until she wins Holyrood’s support for her plans next Wednesday.

With the SNP one seat short of an overall majority, she must rely on six Scottish Green party votes to win the majority she needs, with the Tories, Labour and the Liberal Democrats planning to vote against her.

No 10 is waiting to see the wording of next week’s Holyrood motion and the details of Sturgeon’s request for a section 30 order before setting out its position. “The critical thing is what Nicola is talking about,” said one source.

Meanwhile, two of May’s closest Downing Street advisers – Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy, her joint chiefs of staff – are expected to have private meetings in Edinburgh with the Scottish Tory leader, Ruth Davidson, and her advisers, to plan May’s referendum strategy.



A Scottish government source said Sturgeon was happy for May to wait to see her proposals before responding. “We are realistic and hard-headed about the mechanics of this,” the source said. “If Holyrood gives us the green light, we’re then in a process where the existing bilateral links we have established, and our minister-to-minister channels, would then kick in.”

The Tories also believe Sturgeon is in a far weaker position than polls showing support for independence as high as 49% suggest. A YouGov poll for the Times on Wednesday said only 43% of Scots would vote yes – the lowest figure for 18 months.