By Ian Levy

Nylon Calculus, brought to you by The Step Back

In the offseason, the Denver Nuggets signed free agent forward Paul Millsap in hopes that the four-time All-Star would help end their four-year playoff drought and make some noise in the postseason. However, considering Millsap was injured in mid-November and lost for the season, the Nuggets – at 26-25 and holding down the No.8 seed in the Western Conference – have done well to stay on a postseason trajectory.

The Nuggets defense has been much better this season but their ceiling will still likely be determined by their potentially elite offense and the chemistry between Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. Denver currently has the 10th-best offense in the league, averaging 106.8 points per 100 possessions. Both Jokic and Murray are averaging 16.2 points per game. Murray is the starting point guard for the Nuggets, but he averages just 2.9 assists per game -- an extremely low total for a starting point guard playing over 30 minutes per game. Jokic, from the center position, leads the team in assists with 5.3 per game.

Role Reversal

It doesn’t always work this way on offense but, traditionally, the point guard role is one of initiation and facilitation. The center position generally provides scoring, screen-setting and rebounding. The Nuggets are interesting in that they have inverted those roles to some degree.

The graph below shows every NBA player marked by two different metrics of ball control -- passes attempted per 36 minutes and possessions percentage (time of possession divided by minutes played). Each player is also marked by the position at which NBA.com categorizes them.

The guards spread out in a long diagonal pattern from the high-usage point guard at the extreme top right, to the low-usage specialists towards the bottom left. The centers and forwards are much more tightly packed with obvious outliers like LeBron James and Ben Simmons falling among the point guards.

Jamal Murray falls in a tight cluster of guards towards the upper right of the graph. He actually ranks in the 74th percentile in possession percentage and 76th percentile in passes per 36 minutes among guards, but it’s important to remember this is among all guards. If we filtered to just point guards, he would likely appear average or slightly below in both measures.

Murray’s Offensive Strengths

Together, 41.2 percent of Murray’s offensive possessions this season have come in spot-ups, or from cutting, coming off screens, or receiving dribble handoffs. That’s compared to just 35.9 percent of his possessions that have been used in isolations or as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll. Simply put, more of his halfcourt offensive possessions have come in off-ball situations than on-ball ones.

With his excellent shooting and decision-making, Murray is extremely effective in those off-ball scenarios. He ranks in the 88th percentile in scoring efficiency coming off screens, 87th in spot-ups, 65th on cuts and 54th on dribble hand-offs. Murray is also tied with CJ McCollum for offensive distance traveled per 36 minutes. He’s free to spend all that time running off screens and looking for space off the ball because, Jokic is so comfortable with the ball in his hands.

Jokic’s Unique Skillset

Looking back to the graph above, we can see that Jokic is an extreme outlier for his position. Only one center, DeMarcus Cousins, has a higher possession percentage and no one else at that position is averaging more passes per 36 minutes this season. Even among guards, Jokic would rank in the 44th percentile in possession percentage and the 93rd percentile in passes per 36 minutes.

It’s not just that Jokic is capable as an offensive fulcrum with the ball in his hands, he excels in that role. He averages 10.5 potential assists per 36 minutes which ranks in the 85th percentile among all players, not just centers. If the matchup presents itself, Jokic can also punish the defense as a scorer -- he ranks in the 98th percentile in scoring efficiency on isolations and the 65th percentile on post-ups.

It seems that, increasingly, the NBA is defined by stars like Jokic with unique styles of play. The key to maximizing that uniqueness is to find the right supporting cast to put around them. A center like Jokic who can run the offense means an opportunity to add another shooter and off-ball scorer at the point guard position, a role Murray is playing to perfection.