Experts say scenario is likely to be self-policed amid doubts that full lockdowns are possible

This article is more than 6 months old

This article is more than 6 months old

At first, a “lockdown” of UK cities to combat coronavirus would be voluntary, with residents simply asked to stay at home and avoid public spaces.

In a worst-case scenario, the police could be asked to enforce road and building closures, the army could be drafted in – and those who breached rules could face specialist tribunals.

Experts in emergency planning note that the UK is a long way from such a scenario. But they say that if it does become necessary, locking down whole cities or areas would be very difficult and cause huge hardship.

The government has a wide range of emergency powers ranging from banning large gatherings to asking the military to help control people’s movements.

Resilience planners across the country are working out how to cope if a city, town or community has to be locked down. “We’re not at that point yet,” said Jacqui Semple, the chair of the Emergency Planning Society, which speaks for resilience professionals in the UK.

Semple said other measures such as stopping mass gatherings were likely to come before more drastic measures such as full lockdowns.

She added: “There’s nothing off the table because this is about how we keep people safe but a full lockdown would be incredibly difficult.”

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Asked about that prospect on Sunday, the health secretary, Matt Hancock, said: “There is clearly a huge economic and social downside to [shutting down cities].

“But we don’t take anything off the table at this stage because you have to make sure you have all the tools available if that is what is necessary.”

Under part two of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, the government has powers to bring in emergency restrictions on people’s movements.

David Stewart, a former police officer who now heads crisis management company Taynuilt Associates, said he anticipated that at an early stage any “lockdowns” would involve health services asking people to avoid crowded places.

“It would initially be self-policed with the option of the actual police providing assurance and potentially enforcing closure of roads, buildings etc.” But he said it was possible that the military would have to become involved – as they do to help out with flooding.

It has been reported that in China health check apps are being used to facilitate people’s movements. Stewart said the authorities here did not have the technology to put such a system in place – and it was unlikely that British people would agree to be subject to it.

He said transparency was key. “The communication needs to be completely clear and well-considered by government. The longer any kind of movement restriction goes, the more challenging it may become.”

Clive Walker, who was a chief adviser to the parliamentary committee that scrutinised the Civil Contingencies Act, said there were extensive plans in place for health emergencies.

He said people had generally condoned restrictions imposed during crises such as the foot and mouth disease or terrorist threats. But he said if anyone breached emergency regulations, they could face the courts – or specialist tribunals.

On the possibility of the military being involved, he said: “The military might be needed to provide extra personnel at barriers or with building temporary structures.”

Simon Bennett, the director of the civil safety and security unit at Leicester University, said he doubted lockdowns would be enforced and called on the government to be clearer about its thinking.

“I’m not sure lockdowns are even possible. Can you see everyone cooperating? Can you see the churches all closing, mosques closing, synagogues closing? I think the way it may work is that the government asks bodies like the FA and RFU to postpone events rather than locking down whole cities.”

Prof Tony Travers, a visiting professor in the LSE’s department of government, said there were no modern parallels to a whole city or town being put into lockdown.

He said: “There’s no way of testing public response in advance. People react well to short-term dislocation such as train or bus network shutdowns or power cuts. There’s a communal spirit and people muddle through.

“But I don’t see how you could shut down a whole city for a long time. It’s a logistical impossibility. It would put massive pressure on the national and local government.”

Travers pointed out that local services were already under huge pressure and organisations such as the police and army smaller. “There is less resilience,” he said. “As the state becomes smaller, the question is whether it is still capable of mass response.”