Veteran Israeli military analyst Amos Harel on Thursday assessed that a future war between Israel and Hezbollah seems increasingly likely and that Hezbollah may use the deterioration to launch a spectacular ground operation against Israel:

While a balance of mutual deterrence has prevailed since the end of the Second Lebanon War nearly eight years ago, it is enough to look at the events of the past year — an air strike against a weapons convoy in Lebanon and the assassination of a senior Hezbollah figure, which the terrorist organization attributes to Israel, growing threats by the Hezbollah leadership, an explosive charge on Mount Dov and a series of terror attacks in the Golan Heights that Israel suspects are tied to Hezbollah — to bear witness that the quiet on the border won’t necessarily last long.

The suggestion is not a new one, and was being publicly analyzed by Israeli military experts well over a year ago. Harel unpacked a more recent anonymously penned analysis in Israel’s military magazine Maarachot:

An article by a lieutenant colonel in intelligence, published in the military magazine Maarachot presented an alternative scenario. The officer, N., argued Israel should take into account the possibility that Hezbollah changed its strategy to something completely different. He wrote there are signs Hezbollah is weighing trying to shorten the next campaign through ground operations in Israel. He referred to comments by Hezbollah leadership about “conquering the Galilee.” While these declarations sound arrogant, perhaps unrealistic, Israel should give them weight, because they might reflect Hezbollah’s intentions. N. wrote Hezbollah’s 2006 strategy reflected its deep understanding of Israel’s technological, intelligence and air superiority as well as of Israel’s weak spots: high sensitivity to casualties, aversion to a long campaign and the need for clear victory.

The article in turn described an August 2012 Hezbollah military exercise that involved 10,000 fighters and included attacks on targets deep in Israeli territory.

The concerns come alongside other ones involving Hezbollah boasts – by and large backed by genuine capabilities – that the Iran-backed terror group intends to saturation bomb Israeli population centers.

Israeli leaders have for their part been explicit that they will take whatever measures are necessary to shorten a future conflagaration with Hezbollah, and that Lebanese institutions and infrastructure used by the organization will not be immune.

[Photo: Channel 4 News / YouTube]