I know, I know: Don’t put too many assumptions on Week 1. But what else are we gonna write about?

Appalachian State is the prohibitive Sun Belt favorite (for now)

Give the Mountaineers a ton of credit: They looked 100% worthy of beating Tennessee, and probably should have. They just couldn’t pull it out because of dumb luck in overtime as well as some brain fart coaching and poor clock management by ASU’s coaches late in regulation. That sometimes happens when coaches of underdog teams find themselves having to bring home a massive upset, so the disappointing finish probably isn’t something to look into too much. What should be taken from this game was just how damn physical and confident ASU looked in Neyland Stadium — their DBs were talking trash to the UT fans, their big boys were not scared of the battle in the trenches whatsoever, and Marcus Cox is going to wreck many Sun Belt defenses. The biggest concern right now for the Mountaineers is the effectiveness of the passing game as they had some hiccups in Knoxville, but on the other hand, Tennessee will likely be the toughest secondary they’ll face all season. If they can’t score on Idaho, then perhaps it’ll be time to worry.

Meanwhile, those of you Sun Belt veterans likely know that you can’t count out Arkansas State just yet. Georgia Southern and Troy still lurk in the weeds as well. That said…

The rest of the Sun Belt “heavyweights” need to get it together

What the hell happened, Red Wolves? We rely on you for #SunBeltHeat to power our lovely steamboat up and down the Mississippi every week, and instead Toledo (or was it the Illuminati?) turned y’all into glass on your own turf. Granted, ASU has come back from some horrendous OOC losses to contend for conference titles just as recently as, oh, last year. And it should be noted that Toledo will once again be a MAC contender. But 11 of 25 from Chad Voytik and only 6 yards from Cam Echols-Luper isn’t going to cut it. The Red Wolves should have the talent to get things turned around, but sooner or later they’ll need to find a way to bite through their OOC schedule as well as the ‘Belt if they want to take their program to the next level. Auburn may be vulnerable for an upset next week, but Utah State should regardless provide a good barometer of where ASU is after having a few weeks of postgame adjustments.

Another onetime power who choked on its Golden Flakes was Louisiana-Lafayette, who got blown the hell out at home by Boise State, 45-10. Now if there is anyone in the Sun Belt who might have a legitimate excuse for being distracted, it’s the Ragin’ Cajuns, as devastating flooding throughout Acadiana would be enough to distract from anyone’s focus. And yes, the Broncos are always one of the teams that represent the class of the G5. But Elijah McGuire getting bottled up for only 40 yards is worrisome, UL’s quarterback play still appears to be less than convincing post-Broadway, and getting torched for 426 passing yards does not say anything good about UL’s pass rush or their secondary.

Georgia State also has reason to worry, as a 31-21 loss to a not particularly strong Ball State team at home exposed a few worrying tendencies. Despite Penny Hart’s usual brilliance out wide, Conner Manning looked nowhere near the part of Nick Arbuckle at quarterback, and Georgia State’s rushing attack looked just as ineffective as we’ve usually seen under Trent Miles (77 yards total). And even though the GSU defense did a great job of containing Riley Neal and BSU’s passing attack, giving up 325 yards and four touchdowns on the ground appears to be a major step back from last year. If this wasn’t a Week 1 fluke and GSU is stuck with a one-dimensional offense (and a not particularly effective one at that) and a defense that’s vulnerable to the run, their chances of getting back to bowl eligibility will be shaky at best.

Speaking of shaky, we got a look at what New Mexico State looks like without Larry Rose III at running back or Derek Ibekwe at linebacker and it’s…not great. A 38-22 loss at UTEP without Rose doesn’t look horrendous on paper, but the Miners dominated most of the game and rendered much of NMSU’s offense relatively quiet. The Aggies will get a chance to work against defenses weaker than those of UTEP within the Sun Belt, but they’ll need Larry Rose III to stay healthy if they want any shot at a bowl game whatsoever. Their former WAC counterparts Idaho also did not look particularly convincing, having to ride a big rushing performance by Aaron Duckworth (15 car., 112 yards, 2 TD) to survive future Big Sky opponent (god I feel sad typing that) Montana State. Matt Linehan and his receivers are gonna have to get on the same page if they want to make the Sun Belt Revenge Tour akin to Slayer circa 1986 and not Slayer circa 2016.

Potential contenders Troy and Georgia Southern took care of business against two dreadful FCS teams in Austin Peay and Savannah State, respectively, so passing any judgment on them will have to wait until next week.

South Alabama and Texas State may be ahead of schedule

Nobody was particularly high on the Jaguars or Bobcats during the preseason, with South Alabama seemingly on a downswing and Texas State being tabbed as a depth-depleted unknown. Neither team was anywhere close to dangerous in 2015, and the contest between the two was an uninspired slopfest, kick six aside. Yet both schools came up with two of the conference’s biggest wins in Week 1.

South Alabama took advantage of an uninspired Mississippi State performance as well as a benevolent goalpost to shock the entire college football world by knocking off the Bulldogs in Starkville, 21-20. Last year’s dysfunctional offense may be a thing of the past as Dallas Davis gave a steady effort at quarterback, RB Tyreis Thomas had a bustout game (10 carries, 83 yards, 1 TD) to pick up slack for Xavier Johnson being bottled up by MSU’s defense, and Josh Magee and Gerald Everett provided a 1-2 receiving punch that USA has been so desperately needing (15 catches, 208 combined yards, 2 combined touchdowns). USA’s defense also put in a masterful performance in containing MSU’s receivers–only 143 total yards passing–and everyone in the rushing game not named Damian Williams. Mobile quarterbacks (the fast ones, not those residing in USA’s city) could be a concern going forward, but the Jaguars may well be returning to the hard nosed Joey Jones defenses that got them to a bowl in 2014. The next question is: was this a particularly inspired one-off upset, or are the Jags a real conference title contender? If they can manage to throw an early wrench in Georgia Southern’s Sun Belt title hopes next Saturday, it may be safe to assume the latter.

Texas State, meanwhile, gutted out a “this is crazier than cocaine” triple overtime win at Ohio. There are plenty of reasons for hope and continual concern for the boys from San Marcos; the passing game appears to show signs of life as Tyler Jones has developed a rapport with an all new group of receivers, and the defense, while undersized, is no longer slow and showed the ability to make some stops on big downs. They also showed absolutely zero quit despite having 4 or 5 different opportunities when they easily could’ve (and under Dennis Franchione in 2015, would’ve) done so. All of those are considerable improvements, and Bobcat fans have reason to be excited. But injuries could still decimate this team as depth is still extremely thin at many positions, the offensive line may have trouble creating running room against physical front sevens, and the secondary showed they were still susceptible to getting burned by receivers with elite speed. Wins at Arkansas and at home against Houston are likely still out of the question, but perhaps a 5 or 6 win season may just be possible. Considering that some were touting 2-10 as a realistic expectation for Everett Withers’s first season, that would be huge.