Sky Views: What if Kim Jong-Un is not a madman?

Sky Views: What if Kim Jong-Un is not a madman?

Katie Stallard, Asia Correspondent, in Seoul

Let me be very clear - Kim Jong-Un is a despot who runs a totalitarian regime which is accused of committing crimes against humanity on a scale without parallel in the contemporary world.

This is not a fan note.

He is also not an idiot.

There has been a tendency to portray Kim Jong-Un as a cartoon villain - a caricature of a petty madman, with a bad haircut.


Kim Jong Un doesn't actually have to use any of his weapons to get what he wants - let's assume he knows that would be suicide - he just needs to be able to threaten to do so.

But what if he knows exactly what he is doing - and his logic is perfectly sound?

Look at this from his perspective, and just go with me on this.

Let's assume that Kim Jong-Un is not pursuing nuclear weapons because he wants to take over the world - this is not Team America World Police.

He wants a viable nuclear warhead, capable of hitting the US mainland, to ensure that a) no-one attacks him, and b) the major powers have to negotiate with him on an equal basis, as a fellow member of the nuclear club.

Image: High ranking officers applaud North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un

He has seen what happens to dictators without nuclear weapons - Muammar Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein - and he doesn't want to end his days in a drainage ditch, or in a noose.

The number one goal of the Kim regime is the survival of the Kim regime.

It's already working on a smaller scale with his existing arsenal.

The reason he, and frankly most people here in Seoul where I am writing this, don't believe the United States will launch a military attack on Pyongyang, is because of the likelihood of retaliation.

Image: A soldier salutes North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un

He doesn't need nuclear weapons to achieve this - he has a vast array of conventional artillery pieces already positioned along the border, more than capable of hitting the South Korean capital, 35 miles away.

Some of this might be destroyed in a co-ordinated strike, but North Korea's mobile and submarine-launch capability is advancing, making firing positions harder to detect among terrain that includes networks of tunnels and caves.

He also has chemical weapons.

The Japanese prime minister worried aloud last week that North Korea may be able to fire sarin-tipped ballistic missiles.

Image: North Korea is developing a long-range missile system

North Korean agents are suspected of assassinating the leader's half-brother with VX nerve agent in Malaysia earlier this year.

His current capability already provides a substantial deterrent - enough to dissuade every previous US president who has grappled with this issue over the last five decades from going down the military route.

Imagine how much more powerful that will be once cities on the US mainland are also in play.

It seems like that would be worth making some pretty major sacrifices, and weathering whatever international censure comes your way, to achieve.

Image: Supporters of Kim Jong-Un during a parade marking the birth anniversary of the country's founder

Kim Jong-Un doesn't actually have to use any of his weapons to get what he wants - let's assume he knows that would be suicide - he just needs to be able to threaten to do so.

Having people think you are an unpredictable madman also doesn't do his cause any harm.

Sky Views is a series of comment pieces by Sky News editors and correspondents, published every morning.

Previously on Sky Views: Faisal Islam - Brexit and the student migration paradox