(This story originally appeared in on Jun 5, 2016)

AAP and Away

GANDHINAGAR: If faces tell a story, then Anandiben Patel ’s fate was pretty much clear the day she was sworn in as Gujarat ’s first woman chief minister over two years ago. There was hardly a beaming face among the cheerleaders: her loyalists worried just how Anandiben would fill the larger-than-life shoes left behind by Narendra Modi while party veterans could see new cracks forming in the iron-clad BJP state unit.Anandiben’s former BJP colleague and Opposition leader Shankersinh Vaghela captured it all succinctly. “Ben achchi hain, par chalegi nahi (Sister is a nice person, but she won’t last),” the Congress leader had told this reporter. State BJP cadre conferred in private to all and sundry that hardly anything was going for her except her proximity to Modi.Soon enough, two powerful components of the state’s political structure resurrected and spun out of Anandiben’s control: the state bureaucracy and the Sangh Parivar . The former went back to its time-tested ways while the latter, sidelined during the Modi regime, started showing up on the streets with agendas of its own. The likes of Pravin Togadia again figured in headlines , and all doubts regarding a Sangh revival were put to rest when Vijay Rupani — also a confidant of Modi and party chief Amit Shah — became first a minister and then the state BJP president.Then came the Patidar agitation that challenged the hold of Anandiben and the BJP alike. The powerful Patel community, once the backbone of the BJP in Gujarat, was out on the streets — and the BJP had nowhere to go. Last month, in heartland Surat, eggs were thrown at party leaders during the Gaurav Vikas Yatra, celebrating two years of Modi regime at the Centre. Party MP Darshana Jardosh was hit with an egg on her head. An ET expose of Anandiben’s daughter being allegedly involved in a controversial land deal was the proverbial last nail in the coffin.So is Anandiben on her way out finally? A large section of the BJP now believes that it is just a matter of time. The only factor still going in favour of Anandiben is Modi. Party insiders admit that for the BJP’s supreme leader, sacking his trusted lieutenant would be tantamount to an admission of defeat, which doesn’t exactly suit Modi’s brand of macho politics.Sources maintain that once Anandiben turns 75 this November, she may be given a gubernatorial post in a large state. “To expect anything less will not be prudent,” says a party insider. That does not take away from the growing discomfort in the party, which has realised the impact of anti-incumbency and the mounting disaffection of the electorate towards the BJP in Gujarat as revealed in last year’s local body election. There is also the vexing issue of finding a successor to Anandiben. The first choice, Shah, has larger assignments on his plate and is unlikely to move from New Delhi until the BJP wins — or puts up a good challenge — in Uttar Pradesh polls slated for 2017.Another frontrunner, state health minister Nitinbhai Patel, has come under fire from the Patel community although he has been delegated to negotiate with the community elders. BJP national vice-president Parshottam Rupala, who could have been a likely choice for the chief minister’s post, has been nominated for Rajya Sabha and is slated to get a ministerial position in the next cabinet reshuffle.Given the growing disquiet, the Congress, after decades, smells an opportunity to return to power in the next assembly election. “Nothing can save this government now, it is on its way out,” says Vaghela who, along with the party’s top leaders in the state, is busy reaching out to people across districts through Lok Darbars, a mass-connect programme. While the party doesn’t seem to be in any great shape to mount a challenge to the BJP, it is banking on the growing public anger. Ahmedabad-based writer Achyut Yagnik says he is not too confident about the Congress’ chances. “In Gujarat, the Congress’s weakness is BJP’s strength and there is no reason it will be any different this time,” he says.Meanwhile, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is steadily expanding its base in the state though it is yet to find a face to project in Gujarat. “Our grassroots volunteers are working hard in the state, but to make an impact, we need to have a strong face in Gujarat,” says a senior AAP leader based in Delhi.The BJP, however, maintains a confident face in public. “Such speculation gain currency in the media, but I don’t see such a possibility as yet,” state spokesman Bharat Pandya told ET Magazine. “But these decisions are taken at the Central level at the end of the day and passed on to the state,” he adds. Those speaking off the record are not so sure.“Time is running out for a replacement and if at all a change has to be made, it has to be sooner rather than later as the new CM will need some time to connect with the people,” says a senior member of the state unit. However, with the complex negotiations involved in a transition, it looks likely that the BJP will once again try to piggyback on Modi for the 2017 assembly elections. A face for the state, it would seem, just doesn’t matter in Modi’s Gujarat.