Trump supporters, especially in Greater Appalachia, tend to be older and heavier, traits correlated with underlying conditions that make Covid-19 more lethal, he said. Smoking levels — another leading indicator of vulnerability — also tend to be higher in red areas.

The analysis comes as Trump’s handling of the coronavirus increasingly is turning away seniors who buoyed him in 2016, when the cohort supported him over Hillary Clinton by 7 percentage points. Older voters consistently vote at higher rates and have broken in the GOP’s favor for the better part of two decades.

Seniors by significant numbers nationally prioritize defeating the virus over reviving the sputtering economy, a spate of recent polls shows. And Trump himself has started to acknowledge the impact of his policies on the older cohort.

In a tweet Wednesday, the president cheered on states moving to reopen. “Special care is, and always will be, given to our beloved seniors (except me!),” Trump added in his message. “Their lives will be better than ever ... WE LOVE YOU ALL!”

He used similar language late last month, saying. “Seniors will be watched over protectively and lovingly.”

Researchers on the fatality study said they found the virus could also ravage Republicans across Florida and Georgia, where GOP leaders have been pulling back on aggressive defenses. The study looked at total anticipated deaths on a statewide basis, which accounted for spiraling projections of the virus in densely populated urban areas that are home to more Democrats.

Still, there are caveats beyond the death figures used: Researchers used national fatality rates because deaths by state were scant when they started. They similarly applied national percentages of voters by age, not state-by-state figures. But Johnson noted that could actually understate effects in places like Florida, where the GOP relies more heavily on older voters.