Keys, players to watch and a prediction for Louisville-Alabama

Jake Lourim | Courier Journal

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Louisville must limit turnovers and protect Jawon Pass on offense.

On defense, the Cards have to watch out for both Alabama quarterbacks, plus Damien Harris.

Keys to the game, players to watch and a prediction for Saturday’s Louisville-Alabama game:

Offensive keys

1. Limit turnovers: As much as Louisville will have to do to pull off this upset, we might see the Cardinals stay conservative in the first few possessions. That means inside runs, quarterback keepers and short, low-risk passes as opposed to option runs, deep balls and trick plays. Tradition isn’t usually the blueprint for beating Alabama, but turning the ball over early is the easiest way for things to go south.

2. Pass blocking: For this to be a successful first start for quarterback Jawon Pass, Louisville has to protect him. The Cards have a bevy of running backs, but one of the main reasons Trey Smith is listed first on the depth chart and will likely get the start Saturday is that he’s one of the best pass blockers. That’s crucial in Bobby Petrino’s offense. The 6-foot, 218-pound redshirt junior is going to be in charge of picking up lots of Alabama blitzes in the backfield.

3. Feed the studs: Louisville has talked all year about it and now has to do it Saturday. The Cards’ best matchup in this game is their skill players — not just Jaylen Smith, Dez Fitzpatrick and Seth Dawkins but also freshman speedsters Tutu Atwell and Marcus Riley — with the ability to find space against Alabama’s young defense. But it can be hard against the Crimson Tide to even get stars the ball in position to make plays. Expect Louisville’s game plan to be geared toward that effort.

Read this: Nick Saban wanted Jawon Pass at Alabama. The QB chose Louisville instead

Defensive keys

1. Start fast: The defense will have some rotation players who were starring in either high school or junior college at this time last year. Many guys will be new to this environment. They’ve talked the entire offseason about a new coordinator, new scheme, new everything. If they can, in their first test, come up with an early turnover or a three-and-out, it could be huge for momentum.

2. Finish fast, too: It’s too much to ask for the Cards to come out playing the game of their lives, keep that up all night and then find another level at the end. But they do have to maintain their intensity. An analysis by AL.com on Thursday noted that in its last three season openers, Alabama has outscored the opponents 56-6 in not the first quarter but the third. If Louisville gets off to a great start and then lapses, even for a few minutes or a quarter, it won’t be enough.

3. Mind the quarterbacks: Louisville will likely see both Alabama quarterbacks, Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa. Louisville’s coaches have prepared for Hurts to run more and for Tagovailoa to have a stronger arm downfield. In a testament to Alabama’s dominance, it won’t be enough to solve one quarterback. Georgia stifled Hurts in the first half of the national championship game, but still lost. The Cards have to be ready for both skill sets.

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Players to watch

Alabama quarterback: As noted above, we don’t yet know which talented, athletic, experienced quarterback it will be for most of the night. But Hurts (after two seasons as the starter) and Tagovailoa (who could have a breakout season) are both important for Alabama. While the defense replaces several key players, the offense has a chance to be one of Saban’s best. Both Nos. 2 (Hurts) and 13 (Tagovailoa) figure to make plenty of highlights.

Damien Harris: The Madison Southern product is the best running back at a school that churns out a bunch of them. Harris rushed for 1,000 yards (7.41 per carry), last season and will carry a big load again. Louisville struggled last season with physical backs, so a big run by Harris could change the game at any moment.

Prediction: Alabama 45, Louisville 14

In the first week of the season, Louisville just isn’t close to the level of the national champions. With a new quarterback and a new defense debuting in a high-stakes environment, too much could go wrong, and Alabama will capitalize on it. Louisville should score some points, and field-goal attempts could be in short supply. But Alabama has the weapons to pile on touchdowns.

See also: Louisville, Alabama rosters feature familiar faces from both states

Jake Lourim: 502-582-4168; jlourim@courierjournal.com; Twitter: @jakelourim. Support strong local journalism by subscribing today: courier-journal.com/jakel.