Party At Ground Zero

What do you get when you mix a bikini contest, a series of concerts, bottomless mugs of beer and a Triple Crown race? A bit of a shit storm, and my favorite racing day of the year. The Kentucky Derby is not known for instances of fans throwing footballs or frisbees at horses during a race or some drunk guy running onto the track and trying to punch a horse as he approaches the wire. But this ain’t the Kentucky Derby. It’s time for the people’s race; it’s time for the Preakness!

Two weeks after Nyquist handled 19 other horses in the Kentucky Derby, the undefeated colt will try to keep his Triple Crown hopes alive this Saturday when he takes on a shorter field of weaker opponents in the Preakness. If he wins, he would be the third Kentucky Derby winner in a row and fourth in the last five years to go onto take the middle jewel in Maryland. At odds of about 1-2, the betting public and history are firmly on his side.

The Kentucky Derby winner is usually favored in the Preakness, but even when that horse falls short, the winner is typically a horse that ran in the derby. For that reason, I like to start my Preakness analysis with a look at what happened two weeks earlier at Churchill Downs.

Derby Recap

In my Kentucky Derby preview, I noted that since the introduction of a new qualifying system, the favorites have gone undefeated. This year, not only did the favorite win, but the horses with the 2nd, 3rd and 4th most money wagered on them ran 2nd, 3rd and 4th respectively. All you needed on derby day to hit it big was a dollar and blind faith in the wagering public. A $1 superfecta with the top four betting choices finishing in order paid back $542. Why didn’t I put a buck on that?!

In the derby, Nyquist broke well and was quickly out front, but when Danzing Candy came up from outside to challenge for the early lead, jockey Mario Gutierrez let him take it. The novice horse racing fan may not make much of this early jockeying for position, but I think that decision by Mario may have been the winning move of the race.

Danzing Candy went on to run a relatively fast opening half mile in under 46 seconds while Nyquist sat a few lengths back of the pacesetter. Danzing Candy started to fade about three quarters of a mile into the race and would go on to finish 15th. If Mario Gutierrez refused to concede the early lead or was unable to get Nyquist to settle in a stalking position, the horse may have spent too much energy early and may not have had enough left in the tank to hold off the late charge from Exaggerator. The end of a race usually has the most excitement, and Exaggerator’s late run gave the crowd a bit of a thrill, but the beginning of a race is often more important.

I still think Nyquist is the best horse of the bunch and I think he might be good enough to win even if he gets caught in a speed duel. But the horse and jockey were both mature enough to prevent such a misstep. Nyquist has shown enough versatility and Mario knows him well enough that I just don’t see them being badly compromised in the Preakness. If it was going to happen, it would have been in Kentucky with huge crowds, loud noises and an oversized field. If those things didn’t get Nyquist off his game, it’s hard to imagine what will.

The only other derby runners that are coming back for the Preakness are second place finisher Exaggerator and ninth place finisher Lanni. Lanni is a headstrong horse that is hard to bet on but hard not to root for. In the post parade for the Kentucky Derby, as every other horse was led by the grandstand single file, Lanni was on the other side of the track away from all the commotion. He doesn’t like crowds or other horses, except female ones, but he can run when he wants to, so the connections put up with his quirks. Maybe he will do better in his second race in the states, but after being beaten by 10 lengths in the derby, it’s hard to see him finding the winner’s circle or even completing the exacta.

Exaggerator ran a strong second in the derby, coming from the back of the pack to lose by just over a length while finishing over three lengths clear of third. If that were the only race to go by, I would likely be betting him to win in the Preakness. Each race is unique and I have seen plenty of horses run better or worse than each other on a given race. But Exaggerator has raced against Nyquist four times, and has never came within a length of him. If something is off with Nyquist, then Exaggerator will have a great chance to take the Preakness. But if Nyquist is on his game, we may likely see another 1-2 finish from these horses and Exaggerator’s connections will be left to wonder about would could have been if they didn’t have to keeping running against Nyquist.

New Shooters

With Nyquist scaring off all but two other derby runners, there is plenty of room for new challengers in the Preakness. Eight other horses have been entered. And while recent history says they won’t win, anything can happen in a horse race and I would be doing you a disservice if I didn’t touch on the other entrants.

Stradivari – At 8-1 he is the third betting choice on the morning line. He has only run three career races and only one this year. Usually a horse with so little experience wouldn’t be a top three wagering choice, but most derby runners are absent and Stradivari’s most recent race was a 14 length win in an allowance race at Keeneland. The horses he beat were nowhere near the caliber of the horses he will face on Saturday, but when you win that impressively in your first race of the year, it’s hard to blame the connections for thinking that the sky’s the limit. He won’t be on all my tickets, but I can’t leave him out of my wagers, especially in trifectas and superfectas underneath the two favorites and maybe an exacta and trifecta box with each of them.

Collected – The 10-1 fourth choice on the morning line is easily the most accomplished of the newcomers. He has won four of his six races with two of those wins coming in graded stakes company. He has run against quality horses, in full fields, and has never finished worse than fourth. He is trained by Bob Baffert, who trained last year’s Triple Crown winner and has a strong record in the Preakness. I don’t think Collected will win the race, but I would be surprised if he doesn’t come in the top four. I like him to complete the trifecta behind Nyquist and Exaggerator.

Uncle Lino – The co-fifth choice on the morning line at 20-1. He consistently ran behind Exaggerator in Southern California but got a win in his last stakes race when he finally escaped the derby runner. His best doesn’t seem to be good enough to win, but the California form has held up well. I think he has a good chance to hit the board and I will play him underneath in trifectas and superfectas.

Cherry Wine – The other co-fifth choice at 20-1 on the morning line. His last race was a third place finish behind derby runners Broady’s Cause and My Man Sam. They finished 7th and 11th respectively in the derby. His best just doesn’t seem good enough for me and I won’t have him on my betting tickets.

Abiding Star – At 30-1, he is tied with four other horses for the longest odds on the morning line but he is the most intriguing of the long shots to me. He has won his last five races. Granted they have been against shorter fields and weaker company, but a streak like that can always be the start of something special. I still don’t think he will hit the board, but I always like horses that have a nose for the wire, and if he is a late bloomer, his best running could be yet to come.

Awesome Speed, Laoban, Fellowship – The other 30-1 morning line horses look to be a notch or two below the top runners. However, with a name like Awesome Speed, how can you not bet a little on that horse? If I have a few beers before betting the Preakness, I will likely put down some scratch on the longshot with the fun name, because that is my right as an American.

How to Bet

The Preakness is traditionally the most formful race of the Triple Crown. And after the derby came just the way the bettors predicted, it’s hard to see this race being won by long shots. At odds of 1-2, a win bet on Nyquist does not look all that enticing. But if he were to win this race two out of every three times, those odds would be appropriate. He certainly seems like a worthy favorite, and I won’t talk anyone off of betting him to win at fifty cents on the dollar. However, I want to win more than that, so I will try to hit some exotic wagers, like exactas, trifectas and superfectas.

Nyquist looks like the best horse in the race and Exaggerator looks like the second best. Another 1-2 finish seems likely. But any horse can have an off day. If one of the two doesn’t fire on Saturday, the other looks like an easy winner. If somehow they both have an off race, payouts will be huge. Bettors looking for a big score will throw some cash on exactas and trifectas with just the longer shots. I however, won’t be chasing the big score in a race where favorites have traditionally done well.

Weather will likely be a factor in the race, but that may only help to move the two favorites forward. Rain is expected and the track may be sloppy, which bodes well for Exaggerator, whose best race was a win in the Santa Anita Derby over the slop. But most analysts feel that Nyquist would handle a sloppy track just as well. He has won over wet tracks before and has shown the versatility to handle whatever is thrown his way.

I will bet exacta boxes with Nyquist and Exaggerator, Collected and Stradivari. I will bet more on an exacta with Nyquist in first and Exaggerator in second. I will also play trifectas and superfectas with Nyquist in first, Exaggerator in second, and Stradivari, Collected and Uncle Lino underneath.

I hope we get to see an exciting race. Good luck to anyone that will be betting. I’ll leave you with my foolproof method for being a successful gambler: only make winning wagers.