As Storm Ciara swept across Ireland on Saturday, bringing floods and power cuts and ripping up trees in its wake, Irish voters delivered an electoral uprooting all of their own. Forty years ago, Ireland’s two main political parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – which each trace their roots to Irish nationalist divisions in the 1920s – regularly polled over 80% of the votes in most elections. On Saturday, however, they polled just 44% between them. Other parties have often gained ground since the 1980s, and did well again this time. But the standout performance was that of Sinn Féin, which came within a whisker of topping an Irish poll for the first time in nearly a century. It may even have topped the poll, according to some tally projections.

In terms of share of the vote, and according to normally reliable exit polls, the election was a genuine photo-finish. Fine Gael, which has governed Ireland for the last nine years, scored 22.4%. Fianna Fáil, which tends to alternate in power with Fine Gael, took 22.2%. Sinn Féin, meanwhile, squeaked in between the so-called big two with 22.3%. If this had been a football match, the referee would probably still be dithering over the verdict on VAR and the crowd would be getting angry. The political conclusion, though, seems clear. The old turn-and-turn-about in Irish politics has been bust open.

British observers should be more than usually careful not to misread this result. Ireland’s 2020 election was not about Brexit (which only 1% in the exit poll said was important) or the border. Sinn Féin owes its relative success more to a groundswell of young voters’ impatience on domestic economic and welfare issues rather than to a resurgence of old-style republicanism. It probably also helped that Mary Lou McDonald has replaced Gerry Adams since the last election in 2016. It all meant that one in three voters under 35 had a ready-made vehicle for their frustrations. Fine Gael has been punished for its failures on health and housing. Fianna Fáil has discovered that its record in the banking crisis of 2008-10 has not been forgiven after all.

Nevertheless, it is not yet clear what will replace the old FF-FG duopoly in government. As the exit polls showed, Ireland has three-party politics now. Yet, in an important sense, there is no new kid on the block. Sinn Féin’s roots in Irish history go back even further than those of its rivals. The other two parties have said they will not go into coalition with it because of the past. Yet the alternative is far from obvious. None of the three parties is ascendant. Fine Gael has held on a bit better than at one time seemed likely. Fianna Fáil’s vote share is down on the last election in 2016. Sinn Féin, which undoubtedly has the momentum, was as surprised by its campaign surge as its opponents. The result is unquestionably a vote for change. But the kind of change that the voters want is far from settled.

The danger for Ireland is that this will all lead to a frustratingly familiar outcome and that there will be no decisive break after all. The exit polls log the voters’ first preferences – and these show a three-horse race stalemate. But under Ireland’s multi-member constituency proportional representation electoral system, this does not mean that there will be the same stalemate in the 160-seat Dáil. Counting got under way in earnest on Sunday, but when it is over – and this count could go down to the wire in several constituencies – Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael may stretch an advantage. That’s partly because Sinn Féin ran only 42 candidates across Ireland’s 39 constituencies and partly because many voters have in any case been traditionally unwilling to give second-preference votes to Sinn Féin.

Ever since 1981, Ireland’s governments have either produced coalitions or minority administrations (and sometimes both at once). That is likely to remain the same after this inconclusive election. The talking between the parties will occupy the weeks to come. Yet everything points eventually to another coalition, possibly to another minority government and, quite possibly, to another general election, perhaps even this year. The 2020 Irish contest was unquestionably what the political class likes to call a “change election”. It cannot be good for Ireland that, for now, the outcome looks likely not to be change but may instead mean more of the same.