Three quarters of Mexicans believe that corrupt officials helped drug cartel boss Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán escape from prison last month, a new survey has found.

Guzmán disappeared from the Altiplano high security prison on 11 July, after apparently slipping through a hole in the floor of his shower and then escaping through a newly dug mile-long tunnel that ran under the prison grounds, government officials have said.

But only 46% of Mexicans said they believed the official version of events, while 40% thought he escaped by some other route, according to a survey carried out by the polling company Parametría. While 77% believe the state played a part in his escape, only 17% believe it was solely masterminded by Guzmán’s colleagues in the Sinaloa cartel.

Only half think he will be recaptured.

Mexico is rife with conspiracy theories, not least because the official versions of high-profile crimes often turn out to be untrue. Meanwhile corruption scandals involving state officials at all levels – from the president to mayors and local police – are shockingly common.



In the case of Guzmán, many Mexicans are particularly incredulous as this was his second escape from a supposedly high-security prison.

In 2001, he absconded after serving eight years of a 20-year sentence by co-opting a senior security official who went on to become his right-hand man in the Sinaloa cartel. Officials said that Guzmán escaped by hiding in a laundry cart. But in her book Los señores del Narco (Narcoland: The Mexican Drug Lords and their Godfathers), Mexican journalist Anabel Hernandez alleges that Guzmán walked out of the main entrance wearing a police uniform – a day before he was reported as officially missing.

Guzmán, rated by Forbes as the world’s 14th richest man, was re-captured in March 2014 after what the US described as the biggest manhunt in history. His latest escape has caused huge embarrassment for President Enrique Pena Nieto, who had impressed the Americans with the capture of several high-profile drug traffickers since taking power in December 2012.

The alternative versions currently circulating include the theory that the man in Altiplano was a look-alike because Guzmán never went to prison in the first place ; that the government reneged on a pact to let him out of prison after a few months, so he took matters into his own hands; and that the government let him escape so he could help negotiate a truce with the other cartel bosses.

The proportion of people who view Guzmán negatively has actually fallen from 76% in 2011 to only 56% today, according to the surveys carried out by Parametría.

Perhaps the most worryingly detail in today’s survey is that 42% of people think Guzmán is as dangerous inside prison as out, and 52% do not think there is any point of him being re-captured – indicting just how far trust in the government has fallen.

Lenin Martell, professor of communication and cultural studies at the Autonomous University of the State of Mexico, said: “Most people in Mexico do not believe official stories or reports anymore – especially those related to crime. Nowadays, people are much better informed and better educated, especially the younger generation, and they are tired of lies, corruption, and clumsy declarations. This signifies a failing political system that cannot sustain itself anymore.”