The coaching carousel might seem months away, but it never really stops.

We already have one head coaching job open (Ole Miss), and a coach publicly under pressure from his athletic director (Kevin Sumlin). The best athletic directors always have a list of their preferred options on hand, should they need to hire a new head coach. They also know how to put out feelers during the season if they think a change could be on the horizon.

When making a move, more important than any style of play or record is fit. A coach has to fit the program’s culture, and that’s not just a cliché. At a coaches convention a few years ago, TCU’s Gary Patterson recounted once talking to someone from an unnamed Big Ten school. As the coach put it, he was a beer drinker, and he wouldn’t fit in a wine-drinking crowd. Good coaches can fail at good programs if it’s not the right fit.

An average year has around 22 or 23 head coaching changes, but it can vary. There were 15 changes after 2014, but 31 after 2015. This year’s carousel could be below-average, due to the position of key programs and rising buyouts at schools without war chests, but there are always a few surprises. The moves will depend on which jobs open.

When Power Five jobs open up, keep an eye on these Group of Five coaches.

Philip Montgomery, Tulsa

He took Tulsa to 10 wins in his second season, and his offense became the first team in FBS history with a 3,000-yard passer, two 1,000-yard receivers and two 1,000-yard rushers. Only one of those players comes back this year, and he needs to find a new quarterback. Another big season will draw him a lot of interest, but will deep ties to Art Briles play a factor?

Scott Satterfield, Appalachian State

After a 4-13 start, Satterfield is 27-5 in the past two-plus seasons, including a share of last year’s Sun Belt title. He’s a sharp offensive mind who has spent more than two decades in the program, so he won’t leave for just any Power Five job. The Mountaineers nearly won at Tennessee last year. Keep an eye on their opener against Georgia this week.

Mike Norvell, Memphis

At 35, he’s the second-youngest head coach in FBS, only ahead of Lincoln Riley, but is highly thought-of in the profession. Memphis went 8-5 in Norvell’s first season, including a win against Tom Herman’s Houston squad, and quarterback Riley Ferguson passed for 3,700 yards and a school-record 32 TD passes. If the defense can improve, the Tigers could make a run at 10 wins. Our own Stewart Mandel has them earning a New Year’s Six berth. If Memphis beats UCF in Week 2 and UCLA at home in Week 3, watch out.

Ken Niumatalolo, Navy

The Navy head coach isn’t itching to leave, but he was close to taking the BYU job two years ago and received interest in multiple jobs last offseason. The triple-option isn’t a great sell for some athletic directors, but there’s no doubting his program’s success on and off the field.

Bryan Harsin, Boise State

At 31-9 in three years, Harsin has continued Boise State’s success, but the Broncos haven’t been at that same elite level since a debut season Fiesta Bowl. They’ve lost five games to division foes in the last two seasons, including two in a row against Air Force. Boise State opens this season against Troy in a big Group of Five non-conference game.

Scott Frost, UCF

Frost took over a winless program and went bowling in year one. Coaches in the AAC believe the UCF job has everything needed for success, so if Frost’s team improves to nine or 10 wins, he doesn’t need to jump ship at the first opportunity.

Jason Candle, Toledo

In the mold of his predecessor and friend Matt Campbell, Candle is a quiet, young coach (37) with a background at Mount Union (Ohio). The Rockets are the favorite to win the MAC this year. If they do, you’ll hear more about him.

Frank Wilson (UTSA)

Wilson took UTSA to its first bowl game last season and is one of the top recruiters in the country from his time at LSU and Ole Miss. He just received a new contract, making him the highest-paid head coach in Conference USA at around $1 million a year.

Blake Anderson, Arkansas State

Gus Malzahn, Hugh Freeze and Harsin each turned one year at Arkansas State into landing a bigger job, but Anderson is 24-15 in three seasons. After a stunning 0-4 start last year, the Red Wolves finished 8-5 and won a share of a second consecutive Sun Belt title. A note: He’s lost to Toledo in three seasons in a row.

Neal Brown, Troy

The Trojans improved from 4-8 to 10-3 in Brown’s second season and achieved their first AP top 25 ranking. He’s only 37, but Brown has Power Five coordinating experience at Texas Tech and Kentucky. Nine offensive starters return in what would be a big 2017 for Troy.

Chuck Martin, Miami (Ohio)

Martin surprised a lot of people by leaving the Notre Dame offensive coordinator job for a winless Miami program after 2013, but the program seems to have turned the corner. After an 0-6 start last year, the RedHawks won six in a row when quarterback Gus Ragland returned, and they nearly beat favored Mississippi State in the St. Petersburg Bowl. With 16 returning starters, Miami could win the MAC this year. Before Notre Dame, Martin went 74-7 in six years as head coach at Division II Grand Valley State after Brian Kelly, winning two national championships.

Craig Bohl, Wyoming

His three consecutive FCS national championships at North Dakota State are well-known, but his age (59) will turn away some ADs. If Wyoming has another big year and QB Josh Allen positions himself as a first-round NFL draft pick, Bohl could draw more attention.

Skip Holtz, Louisiana Tech

Holtz doesn’t draw as much focus as you’d expect with his résumé and last name, but his 16-21 stint at USF left a mark. Still, he’s won nine games in three consecutive years at Louisiana Tech, after previous success at UConn (34-23) and ECU (38-27).

Troy Calhoun, Air Force

He’s a service academy coach running an option offense at his alma mater, but as a former NFL offensive coordinator, he’s not tied to it. It’s a little surprising he hasn’t been hired away by another school. He’s 77-53, missing a bowl game just twice in 11 years.

Chad Morris, SMU

His ties in Texas are incredibly deep — every recruit he’s signed at SMU is from Texas — but he needs to break through with the Mustangs (7-17 in two years). He’s confident about this year’s team. If SMU does have a big year, expect heavy involvement with Morris if any jobs in the Lone Star State come open.

Photo of Ken Niumatalolo and Philip Montgomery by Brad Mills, USA TODAY Sports

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