Introducing LOST, a stat inspired by Byron Buxton

We need a way of qualifying the fact that Twins’ outfielder Byron Buxton isn’t swinging the bat very well, because it’s not obvious enough. Let’s invent a quasi statistic that’s also a fun and relevant acronym.





L - Liners, or lack thereof

The batter earns this letter by hitting line drives well below an average rate. League average is about 21%, so we’ll set our threshold at 19%. There are certainly better ways to measure quality of contact in the statcast era, but none that fit with our acronym.

This letter is meant to show that the batter has trouble squaring up the ball.

O - Outside of strike zone — swing percentage and whiff percentage

The batter earns this letter by swinging at pitches outside the strike zone at an elevated rate. League average was 30% last year, so we’ll set our threshold at 40%. There are bad-ball hitters who can succeed with a high outside zone percentage, like Adam Jones and Salvador Perez, so that’s why we’ll also stipulate that the hitter must miss a majority of those balls. League average last year was 36% whiffs on balls out of the zone; we’re setting our threshold at 50%.

S - Strikeout percentage is high

The batter earns this letter by striking out a whole bunch. League average last year was 21% but guys like Sano K’d up to 37% of the time. We will generously set our threshold at 40%.

T - Timing - whiffing at pitches in the strike zone

The batter earns this letter by swinging and missing at balls in the zone at an elevated rate. The league whiffed at about 14% of balls in the zone last year, so we’ll set our threshold at 25%.

This shows that even when a pitch is a strike, the batter has trouble making contact.

The Results

After combing through the numbers, Brandon Moss and Jace Peterson almost made it but fell short in outside zone percentage. And Chris Merrero got LOS but not the T.

The one and only qualifier of the inaugural LOST is…

Byron Buxton!

L - Line drives less that 19%

Buxton checks in at 0.00%

O - Outside of zone swinging percentage over 40% and missing them over 50%

Buxton swings at pitches out of the zone 45.6% of the time and when he does so, he misses them at a 65.4% clip.

S - Strikeout percentage is over 40%

Byron has struck out 51.9% of his plate appearances*

T - Timing - whiffing at more than 25% of strikes at which were swung.

Buxton has missed on 28.2 percent of his swings at a strike.





*These stats do not incorporate Buxton’s latest game in which he had three plate appearances and three strikeouts.

photo via