Voters believe NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair is as skilled at managing the economy as Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, and the NDP continues to hold a healthy lead in public support, a new poll by Forum Research finds.

The public opinion survey conducted after last week’s leaders debate found Harper and Mulcair in a statistical tie (30 per cent to 29 per cent respectively) when respondents were asked “which of the three main party leaders would handle the economy best?”

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau was in third place with 26 per cent of voters saying he’d best handle the economy.

The results are significant because the general perception among the public has typically been that Harper and the Conservatives have a leg up when it comes to overseeing Canada’s economy, says Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.

“That’s supposed to be the cornerstone of the Tory campaign, the economy, with a lot of their attention focused on balancing the budget. But there’s been an undercurrent of contrary news lately that the economy is not doing fabulously,’’ Bozinoff said in an interview Wednesday.

Closures of big retail outlets like Target in the spring, suggestions the Conservatives may not meet their balanced budget goals, and indications the country may be in, or is entering a recession, are among the signs of an economic downturn, Bozinoff says.

“The public I think is reacting to that,’’ he added.

Meanwhile, recent trends show Mulcair and the NDP are no longer viewed as the “death knell for the economy,” says Laura Stephenson, associate professor with the department of political science at the university of Western Ontario.

“People seem to have faith in Mulcair. Certainly he presents himself as a good manager,’’ Stephenson said.

“Mulcair seems to be taken as a serious leader, one who is capable of governing Canada, and I say that in the broadest terms.”

Regarding federal party preference, the Forum poll shows the NDP still leading in public support, at 34 per cent, well ahead of the Conservatives at 28 per cent and the Liberals at 27 per cent.

The Green Party drew four per cent support, the Bloc six per cent. (The remaining one per cent of respondents answered “anyone else.”)

Based on those latest results, in the new 338-seat House of Commons the NDP would capture a minority government with 125 seats, and the Conservatives 120 seats. The Liberals would win 89 seats, the Bloc three seats and the Greens one, Forum says.

Bozinoff noted the latest poll shows a noticeable drop in support for the NDP from the last Forum poll conducted Aug. 2 — prior to the leaders debate. That earlier poll had the NDP at 39 per cent to the Conservatives 28 per cent, the Liberals 25 per cent, three per cent for the Greens and five per cent for the Bloc.

Each of the other parties picked up one per cent or more in the latest poll compared to last week, indicating that after the leaders debate the NDP experienced some “bleeding” of their support in every direction, Bozinoff argues.

“It’s a substantial change (the NDP drop in support). It’s real,” Bozinoff said.

“(The NDP) have the Liberals to the right of them (on the political spectrum). They lost a point to the Greens and are vulnerable to the Greens on the environmental front. (Green Leader) Elizabeth May did herself a favour on that front during the debate.

“(The NDP) are also vulnerable in Quebec to the Bloc . . . The NDP have battles on three fronts,’’ Bozinoff added.

The latest Forum poll was conducted August 10 involving 1,392 randomly selected Canadian adults who participated in an interactive voice response telephone survey.

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The survey results are considered accurate plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Forum’s poll is weighted statistically by age, region and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest census data.

The weighting formula has been shared with the Star, and raw polling results are housed at the University of Toronto’s political science department’s data library.

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