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Today’s hearings will be some of the most closely watched oral arguments in decades, because of the new rebalance in the courts.



This is how things changed – Justice Anthony Kennedy retired as a swing vote on reproductive rights. He was upheld some abortion restrictions, and struck down others. He was replaced by conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who is generally believed to be more conservative – and that is a crucial difference.



Now, the Chief Justice John Roberts is the most closely watched judge. He is an institutionalist, apprehensive to overturn precedent, but has opposed abortion rights in the past. On Wednesday, he did little to reveal his hand.



He asked three times whether benefits of the law would remain the same under each state.



“Counsel, do you agree that the inquiry… is a factual one that has to proceed state-by-state?”, he asked early in the arguments. He would ask that same question twice more.



If justices uphold Louisiana’s law in a ruling expected in June, it would have wide-reaching, immediate and severe consequences for abortion access across the United States. One potential outcome is that the court upholds a law, making abortion legal, but almost impossible to access.



But the court can rule as narrowly or broadly as it chooses, and with a newly rebalanced court, it is extremely difficult to make predictions even after oral arguments.