The final YouGov election model has again projected the Liberal Democrats will win in Richmond Park and North Kingston, ousting incumbent MP Zac Goldsmith.

Nationally the pollster has the Conservatives winning 339 seats, with Labour on 231 and the Liberal Democrats winning 15 seats, giving the Conservatives an overall majority of 28.

At the 2015 election, Zac Goldsmith had a large 23,015 majority, but he lost the seat to Liberal Democrat Sarah Olney at a by-election the following year and then won it back in 2017 with a shaky majority of just 45.

Since then it has been touted as a key swing seat, especially with Brexit thrown into the mix.

In the EU referendum in 2016, 71 per cent of residents voted to remain – which is proving costly for Mr Goldsmith who has said he would commit to Boris Johnson’s deal.

He has argued against the two extremes of “leaving without a deal and pretending the referendum never happened”, saying both were “very dangerous for this country”.

By contrast, Lib Dem Sarah Olney has said she believes Britain’s best interests lie in remaining in the European Union. Although she accepted the Lib Dems were unlikely to win the majority needed to revoke Article 50, she said the party would support a second referendum if is brought forward by another party in the next government.

The YouGov model estimates the Liberal Democrats will win with 54 per cent of the vote, with the Conservatives on 40 per cent, and Labour on 5 per cent.

The YouGov Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model has been seen as the poll to watch after it was more accurate than most in the last election.

It uses interviews conducted over the past seven days, combined with other data points to predict voter intentions across the country.

Co-creator of YouGov’s MRP model, Professor Ben Lauderdale, says on the pollster’s website: “The idea behind MRP is that we use the poll data from the preceding seven days to estimate a model that relates interview date, constituency, voter demographics, past voting behaviour, and other respondent profile variables to their current voting intentions.

“This model is then used to estimate the probability that a voter with specified characteristics will vote Conservative, Labour, or some other party. Using data from the UK Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results, YouGov has estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency.

“Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allows YouGov to produce estimates of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party

“In 2017, when we applied this strategy to the UK general election, we correctly predicted 93 per cent of individual seats as well as the overall hung parliament result.”