Iran’s powerful body the Guardian Council has disqualified a huge number of potential candidates for the forthcoming parliamentary elections, which are due to take place on February 21, 2020, making it clear to the electorate — already disillusioned by the suppression of protests, lack of transparency and the shooting down of a passenger plane —that their role in determining Iran’s future is negligible.

The successful candidates to serve in Iran’s eleventh parliament will take office on May 27, 2020.

Parliament Undermined

The Supreme Leader’s absolute sovereignty and total control over the way Iran is governed has resulted in a considerable downgrading of the role parliament plays in the country’s politics. According to the constitution, the Guardian Council must approve any legislation passed by parliament, and the legislative process came under particular scrutiny under the tenth parliament, which is entering its final days. Government institutions such as the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution and the Supreme National Security Council — the members of which are not elected — have increased their power and influence. Over the last four years, the Supreme Council of Expediency has been deemed superior to parliament, and authority for key decision-making has been handed to the Supreme Council of Heads of State, directly undermining parliament. That council’s approval of a three-fold increase in gas prices and the Expediency Council’s abrogation of parliament’s anti-money laundering bill are two recent and significant examples of the way non-elected bodies have managed to make parliament inert.

In such an environment, voters have lost the desire to participate in elections because they believe that parliament does not have a role in decision-making anymore.

Use of Violence and the Boycott of Elections

The state’s use of violence against its citizens, which has been used repeatedly during protests in 2017, 2018, 2019 and early 2020, has also led to extreme disillusion among Iranian voters. In addition, Iranians’ perception that the government is lying to them, a lack of transparency and accountability, and the tragedy of the Ukrainian passenger plane crash — including the government’s initial denial that it was in any way involved — has left the electorate disgusted, angry, and desperate.

No Reformists

Recent political shifts have also led to voting apathy —or in many cases, outright hostility. The political atmosphere is dominated by two large umbrella factions: the conservatives or fundamental principlists and the so-called more left-leaning reformists.

The remaining political parties, including nationalists, leftists, nationalist-religious parties, secular groups, and liberals, tend to be marginal and are not usually serious contenders in the elections. This is because, since the first days of the revolution, the “right to be selected” was taken away from these parties and their candidates, and intense competition really only takes place between the two main factions.

During the election process to determine the fourth, seventh, eight, and ninth parliaments, the Guardian Council disqualified most reformist candidates, and cleared the way for conservatives to take power. Once again, as elections for the eleventh parliament near, the Guardian Council has repeated its tactic of disqualifying reformist candidates to guarantee a parliament with an overwhelming majority of fundamentalists.

With this in mind, it is reasonable to predict the following:

— There will be a small turnout at the elections, and there will be no great shake-ups or surprises in the results. Hardliners will go into the elections with a large number of candidates being assured they will win, and that the parliament will be dominated by like-minded politicians. They will also encourage people to show up at the polls to demonstrate their participation and their support for the political process. But voter turnout will be low, and in elections with minimal participation, the hardliners always do well, regardless of what kind of campaign they have run.

— Some reformists have been allowed to run in the elections, but it is a small fraction of the number of candidates that put their names forward — and far fewer candidates than those running as conservative hardliners. Swing voters, who make up about 30 percent of all eligible voters, see no reason to participate in the elections and will be largely absent. These voters can sometimes have an impact when the election environment is a little more diverse, and where they have been given a sense that change is possible. Not only were a large number of reformist candidates disqualified, but many were also reluctant to run in the current environment.

The Guardian Council's Disqualification Process

Regardless of the illegality of the Guardian Council's process of determining which candidates were qualified to run in parliamentary elections, the council's conduct resulted in:

— Reformists virtually boycotting the election by refusing to submit an electoral list.

— Greater numbers of figures leaving the inner circle of the government to join the opposition and the critics.

— President Rouhani objecting to the process, thereby indirectly undermining the legitimacy of the Supreme Leader and endorsing the opposition's claim that free and fair elections would not be taking place in Iran.

— A greater number of critics of the Guardian Council, including some prominent conservative figures such as Ahmad Tavakoli.

— The possibility that reticent and disillusioned voters (many of whom would have voted for reformist candidates) will join the boycott, reducing the turnout even more.

What Will the Eleventh Parliament be Like?

The forthcoming elections will be unfair, illegitimate, and not free, seriously jeopardizing the legitimacy of the eleventh parliament, but also seriously challenging the notion that Iran has anything resembling a legitimate political system.

The people who claim victory in the elections will not be representatives of the nation, but agents of the system brought in by the Guardian Council. These officials will be neither capable of solving people’s problems or capable of bringing society into line with government policies and programs. They will not be suited to usher in and promote the peace and tranquility so vital at this critical time. Iran has been here before. Elections in 2008 for the country’s eighth parliament also saw the most prominent reformists disqualified from running, and the ninth parliament also saw conservatives dominating. Both resulted in considerable inefficiencies within the country’s legislative process, and deep malaise and sense of frustration among a significant part of the population.