OTTAWA–Regional differences in voting intentions across Canada are masking a close federal election race, according to the latest polling data from Forum Research.

The opposition Conservatives still maintain a national edge in voting intentions, with 34 per cent of respondents to Forum’s late June poll saying they’d vote for Andrew Scheer’s party.

The Liberal government had the support of 29 per cent of respondents. While support for both of the major parties is essentially unchanged from Forum’s May numbers, the Conservatives seem to have lost the strong lead they enjoyed over much of the past year and a half.

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The real story is in the regional breakdowns, according to Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.

“The race is kind of masked by these regional differences, especially when you look at these huge leads the (Conservatives) are piling up in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta,” Bozinoff said.

“But if you look at the rest of the country, it’s a much closer race than it looks. We actually have the Liberals ahead in Ontario, and a toss-up in the Atlantic, so it’s looking like a close race to me.”

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In the Conservative heartland of Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, more than half of decided voters (57 per cent) said they’d vote for Scheer’s party. That level of support suggests the potential for a sweep, Bozinoff said.

The race is much more competitive in vote-rich Ontario, where the Liberals (36 per cent) actually lead the Conservatives (32 per cent), according to Forum’s June numbers.

The Liberals also enjoy a strong lead in Quebec, with 31 per cent of respondents saying they’d vote for Justin Trudeau’s party, compared to 23 per cent for the Conservatives and 20 per cent for the Bloc Québécois.

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Atlantic Canada is anyone’s guess, although it’s widely expected in Ottawa that the Liberals will lose a good number of seats in both New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 34 per cent compared to the Liberals’ 25 per cent, but both the Greens (19 per cent) and the New Democrats (15 per cent) outperform their national numbers in the province.

And for the second month in a row, according to Forum’s numbers, Elizabeth May’s Green Party (13 per cent) is statistically tied with Jagmeet Singh’s NDP (14 per cent).

Bozinoff chalked that up to Elizabeth May’s personal popularity with Canadian voters, although he also cautioned it could lead to strategic voting, with progressive Canadians parking their votes with whoever can beat Scheer’s Conservatives.

“The way things stand now, that three-way split is going to give the Tories the election,” Bozinoff said.

The Forum poll surveyed 1,539 randomly selected Canadians between June 21 and June 23, and the results are considered accurate between three percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Regional breakdowns would have a larger margin of error, given the smaller sample size.