President Trump’s recent threats of the “absolute destruction” of North Korea at the United Nations General Assembly shocked the world. In response, Kim Jong Un stated that President Trump’s speech was “the most ferocious declaration of war in history”. Today, the world’s two most bellicose leaders are literally on the nuclear brink.

Developments in the North Korean crisis are happening almost too fast to track. This post synthesizes four key takeaways of the current crisis.

North Korea Can Probably Nuke the United States

The newest north korean missile, the Hwasong 14, can travel an estimated range of 10,400 kilometers. This puts most of the continental United States within range. California, New York, and Chicago could all be targeted by this intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). There are some questions about the reliability of the Hwasong 14, specifically its re-entry vehicle and accuracy. But when push comes to shove, there is little doubt that North Korea would launch the Hwasong 14 if they had to.

The best estimates of North Korea’s September 2nd nuclear test indicate the explosion caused a magnitude 6.1 earthquake. North Korea’s state media claims that this test was of a hydrogen bomb, and United States intelligence agencies have stated that this claim is probably true.

While it is difficult to know the exact yield of this nuclear test, most open-source estimates range from between 140 kiltons to 250 kilotons. For reference, the atomic bombs dropped during World War II on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were less than 24 kilotons.

To make matters worse, North Korea has released photos indicating that this new hydrogen bomb can be mated to the new Hwasong 14 missile. The image above shows the alleged hydrogen bomb device, the re-entry vehicle of the Hwasong 14 and a diagram of the device inside of the re-entry vehicle. Taken together, these facts indicate that North Korea can probably nuke the United States.

In a Conflict, North Korea has a Strong Incentive to Launch Nuclear Weapons Early

The North Korean military is massively inferior to the technical hegemony of the United States. The United States Air Force could level Pyongyang with relative ease. This military inferiority creates strong incentives for North Korea to offset disadvantages with asymmetric capabilities, such as nuclear weapons. Beyond the simple balance of power, in a full scale conflict North Korea would lose command, control and communication infrastructure relatively quickly. If Kim Jong Un was going to launch nuclear weapons, he would have to order the launch before he loses the power to do so.

Typical assumptions are that the United States could just take out all of North Korea’s nuclear weapons before they are launched or that United States missile defense systems will shoot down the missiles before they hit cities. Unfortunately, both of these claims are based off of flawed beliefs of actual United States military capabilities.

North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is veiled in secrecy. Even experts don’t know exactly how many nuclear weapons are in the country. Beyond a simple lack of intelligence, North Korea’s missiles are mobile, transported on trucks. These weapons are often stored in hardened bunkers or deep underground, making military precision strikes very difficult. Missing just a few of these weapons of mass annihilation means risking New York or San Francisco.

Missile defense systems will try to shoot these missiles down. But there is a reason that the United States has not shot down North Korea’s missile tests yet. It is because missile defense systems are not as effective at shooting down missiles as the defense community wants us to believe. The most difficult ballistic missiles to intercept are ICBMs, the type of missile that North Korea would use to attack the United States. These missiles travel so fast and are so difficult to intercept that the Ground Based Midcourse Defense System has only intercepted about half of the 19 tests that the United States has conducted. Further, these tests were not conducted under realistic conditions. In an actual military attack, the Missile Defense Agency would not know every single detail about the incoming missile, like they do in test conditions.

In short, the North Korean Crisis has been plagued with dangerous magical thinking about North Korea’s nuclear technologies and the infallibility of United States military options.

North Korea Has Frightening Non-Nuclear Options

As if North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is not enough, the rogue state has the world’s largest active stockpile of chemical and biological weapons on earth. Evidence indicates that North Korea has vast amounts of lethal chemical agents such as Sarin, VX, Tabun, and Hydrogen Cyanide. The recent assassination of Kim Jung-Nam with VX indicates that the regime is not afraid to use chemical weapons to preserve its power.

In addition to the large chemical weapons stockpile, North Korea has a sizable biological weapons arsenal. In 2012, the South Korean Ministry of National Defense assessed that North Korea is weaponizing Anthrax, Smallpox, Rabbit Fever and Hemorrhagic Fever. Other non-governmental estimates of bioweapons production include Botulism, Cholera, Typhoid Fever, Yellow Fever, Staph, Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever and several other agents. Pyongyang has multiple options for delivering these weapons of mass destruction, including artillery, rockets, missiles, aircraft and non-conventional methods.

North Korea also has a formidable conventional deterrent. Conservative estimates assess that the Korean People’s Army Ground Force has 500 long range artillery tubes and 200 multiple rocket launchers within range of Seoul. In a war, thousands of additional artillery pieces, armored vehicles, tanks, and rocket launchers could be deployed.

Taking all of this into consideration, a full scale invasion into North Korea is not a viable military option. Despite “totally destroying” North Korea in 1953, the United States was not able to claim victory in the Korean War. The mountainous geography of North Korea played a significant role in holding United States forces at bay. Since then, North Korea has spent the last 65 years tightening its defenses with biological, chemical and conventional weapons.

There are No Solutions to This Problem

Beyond there simply being no good solutions to this problem, there really aren’t any solutions to this problem period. There are currently no diplomatic avenues to pursue denuclearization or ease tensions, and military options are enormously costly. A war with North Korea could easily escalate into the most deadly conflict in history.

The United States would not be able to eliminate all of North Korea’s nuclear weapons in targeted precision strikes. When missing just one or two nuclear weapons could be equivalent to losing New York or San Francisco, the costs are simply too high.

Accepting that there are no solutions to the North Korean problem is difficult. It means accepting that the United States and its allies failed at a multiple-decade long attempt to prevent North Korea from getting nuclear weapons. It also means accepting that the United States will be deterred when pursuing certain options in the region. The United States is stuck between the proverbial rock and a hard place. We can either tolerate deterrence or face a war of mass destruction.