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The Truth in Numbers





It is only fair to judge a game to it's direct competition. This is an attempt to do that based on the information available to us. After viewing the data we can then extrapolate from there.



This is the information we have to use in this endeavor. You can debate the validity of the info (some of it is dated) but it's all we have otherwise the debate is pointless and turns into an opinion based debate rather than a fact based one. There has to be a base foundation in which you can make a deduction. An updated chart is on the way and at that point we can reassess.



http://www.mmodata.net/



How many subscribers does SWTOR have? Per EA SWTOR has between 1 million and 500k. This number will be updated at the EA shareholders meeting at the end of the month. The human mind tends to latch onto the negative immediately when ever a projection is given. Depending on your POV you'll choose a number in that range that fits your mindset, however for these purposes the range itself is fine.



Since SWTOR does not have a eastern (China) based operation this is only a comparison of western players where the numbers allow the distinction to be made. Additionally games that do not have a subscription based model are not compared here. They do not release numbers of active accounts and having played the game only once you would be a subscriber for life essentially. While they can be compared for game play elements their financial models are completely different and not a part of the scope of this discussion.





Direct MMO competitors with a subscription or subscription + F2P model (Western Subscription numbers only):



World of Warcraft has ~5.1 million players

SWTOR has between 1mil-500k players.

Eve Online has ~350k players.

LOTOR has ~250k players.

Rift has ~250k players.

Star Trek Online has less than ~60k players.

SWG had under 30k players before the sunsetting announcement.



The outlier is of course WoW with over 6.5 million subs no surprise there. Otherwise SWTOR is solidly the industry number two when compared to it's peers with similar payment access models.





Retention, It's all about perspective





Immediately the focus then shifts to what about the subscription retention numbers? In order to give something weight it has to have a viable comparison. Next let's examine all of the MMOs with the same payment access model that have come on to the scene in the last 4 years. This comparison will start in 2008 because from 2008 to the present the market conditions and number of existing games illustrates the current market saturation of MMOs. Additionally 2008 represents the start of the rapid decline in the US economy. Not accounting for this would be illogical.



These will be based on a peak subscriptions number as high number for retention as box sales do not exist for all of these games specifically broken down to the first year sales. The comparison has to be equal for it to be worth considering. If actual date including box sales can be obtained this will be amended to show those numbers.



Retention Rate of Direct MMO competitors with a subscription or subscription + F2P model since 2008 over a 1 year period:



STO: 107k to 58k. (54% Retention Rate)

SWTOR: 1.7 million to 1 million- 500k. (59%-29% Retention Rate -Median is 45%)

RIFT: 600k to 248k. (41% Retention Rate)

Warhammer Online: 800k to 175k. (22% Retention Rate)

Age of Conan: 700k to 110k. (15% Retention Rate)



Clearly we can see the trend of newly released MMO's with a similar payment model has taken quite a hit since 2008. STO doesn't have a player base anywhere near the other games but has apparently carved out a loyal niche during their first year. SWTOR is on par with the average when compared with it's recently released peers. The new release of SWTOR subscription numbers next week will paint a better picture.





Summary and Conclusion





Based on the information presented we can draw several conclusions.



1. SWTOR is the #2 game in the MMO market when compared to other games with a Subscription or Subscription + F2P model.



2. SWTOR's subscription retention rate is typical of the trend all MMO's released within the last 4 years that share the same payment access model.





Having viewed the data the question is obvious, why does the gaming community that pays for SWTOR continue to tout it as a failure? Unrealistic expectations that the game would just go up and up and up in terms of subscription numbers. That trend isn't realistic based on the data.



Expectations are set by people. That is an important thing to consider. SWTOR isn't a living entity so the game itself never said it was going to be a WoW killer, you will not find a single interview prior to launch with anyone from Bioware stating they believed they had the next WoW killer on their hands. We set those expectations ourselves. Speculating on EA's motives is also pointless endeavor, as a business they internally have to hope any game they sell has blockbuster potential.



If SWTOR is a failure then all other games with the exception of WoW are failures as MMO's that use a subscription or subscription + F2P model. Objectively people may have expected more from the title in the first year but it performed on par with it's directly comparable competition.



If leveraged correctly SWTOR can increase it's #2 market share position with the F2P release. It is not unrealistic to expect growth going forward with this new model as the charts show the game that grew adopted the F2P service.



Change log:

10.26.12: Updated WoW's current subscriber numbers to reflect the chart referenced. I mistakenly pulled the China numbers originally.



Disclaimer: We can never be 100% accurate with any of this and you should already know that. Where possible the most accurate and available datapoints have been used for the time frames under consideration. Companies do not have to give us the information unless they are publicly traded and even then it can be vague. Accepting this as the medium we have to work in then you can still draw conclusions from the data. This will ALWAYS be more accurate than feelings based discussion. Conversely you can state that this can never be 100% accurately assessed therefore is worthless and move on. I don't believe that is logical however.



**** I will gladly update and revise this based on any new or more reliable data that can be obtained. **** I'm starting this thread as a place to discuss the state of the game while keeping things in perspective without employing excessive hyperbole to make my point. I hope it can generate a good discussion.It is only fair to judge a game to it's direct competition. This is an attempt to do that based on the information available to us. After viewing the data we can then extrapolate from there.This is the information we have to use in this endeavor. You can debate the validity of the info (some of it is dated) but it's all we have otherwise the debate is pointless and turns into an opinion based debate rather than a fact based one. There has to be a base foundation in which you can make a deduction. An updated chart is on the way and at that point we can reassess.How many subscribers does SWTOR have? Per EA SWTOR has between 1 million and 500k. This number will be updated at the EA shareholders meeting at the end of the month. The human mind tends to latch onto the negative immediately when ever a projection is given. Depending on your POV you'll choose a number in that range that fits your mindset, however for these purposes the range itself is fine.Since SWTOR does not have a eastern (China) based operation this is only a comparison of western players where the numbers allow the distinction to be made. Additionally games that do not have a subscription based model are not compared here. They do not release numbers of active accounts and having played the game only once you would be a subscriber for life essentially. While they can be compared for game play elements their financial models are completely different and not a part of the scope of this discussion.Direct MMO competitors with a subscription or subscription + F2P model (Western Subscription numbers only):World of Warcraft has ~5.1 million playersSWTOR has between 1mil-500k players.Eve Online has ~350k players.LOTOR has ~250k players.Rift has ~250k players.Star Trek Online has less than ~60k players.SWG had under 30k players before the sunsetting announcement.The outlier is of course WoW with over 6.5 million subs no surprise there. Otherwise SWTOR is solidly the industry number two when compared to it's peers with similar payment access models.Immediately the focus then shifts to what about the subscription retention numbers? In order to give something weight it has to have a viable comparison. Next let's examine all of the MMOs with the same payment access model that have come on to the scene in the last 4 years. This comparison will start in 2008 because from 2008 to the present the market conditions and number of existing games illustrates the current market saturation of MMOs. Additionally 2008 represents the start of the rapid decline in the US economy. Not accounting for this would be illogical.These will be based on a peak subscriptions number as high number for retention as box sales do not exist for all of these games specifically broken down to the first year sales. The comparison has to be equal for it to be worth considering. If actual date including box sales can be obtained this will be amended to show those numbers.Retention Rate of Direct MMO competitors with a subscription or subscription + F2P model since 2008 over a 1 year period:STO: 107k to 58k. (54% Retention Rate)SWTOR: 1.7 million to 1 million- 500k. (59%-29% Retention Rate -Median is 45%)RIFT: 600k to 248k. (41% Retention Rate)Warhammer Online: 800k to 175k. (22% Retention Rate)Age of Conan: 700k to 110k. (15% Retention Rate)Clearly we can see the trend of newly released MMO's with a similar payment model has taken quite a hit since 2008. STO doesn't have a player base anywhere near the other games but has apparently carved out a loyal niche during their first year. SWTOR is on par with the average when compared with it's recently released peers. The new release of SWTOR subscription numbers next week will paint a better picture.Based on the information presented we can draw several conclusions.1. SWTOR is the #2 game in the MMO market when compared to other games with a Subscription or Subscription + F2P model.2. SWTOR's subscription retention rate is typical of the trend all MMO's released within the last 4 years that share the same payment access model.Having viewed the data the question is obvious, why does the gaming community that pays for SWTOR continue to tout it as a failure? Unrealistic expectations that the game would just go up and up and up in terms of subscription numbers. That trend isn't realistic based on the data.Expectations are set by people. That is an important thing to consider. SWTOR isn't a living entity so the game itself never said it was going to be a WoW killer, you will not find a single interview prior to launch with anyone from Bioware stating they believed they had the next WoW killer on their hands. We set those expectations ourselves. Speculating on EA's motives is also pointless endeavor, as a business they internally have to hope any game they sell has blockbuster potential.If SWTOR is a failure then all other games with the exception of WoW are failures as MMO's that use a subscription or subscription + F2P model. Objectively people may have expected more from the title in the first year but it performed on par with it's directly comparable competition.If leveraged correctly SWTOR can increase it's #2 market share position with the F2P release. It is not unrealistic to expect growth going forward with this new model as the charts show the game that grew adopted the F2P service.10.26.12: Updated WoW's current subscriber numbers to reflect the chart referenced. I mistakenly pulled the China numbers originally.We can never be 100% accurate with any of this and you should already know that. Where possible the most accurate and available datapoints have been used for the time frames under consideration. Companies do not have to give us the information unless they are publicly traded and even then it can be vague. Accepting this as the medium we have to work in then you can still draw conclusions from the data. This will ALWAYS be more accurate than feelings based discussion. Conversely you can state that this can never be 100% accurately assessed therefore is worthless and move on. I don't believe that is logical however. Rhèy Phin Kýló Nemonica The Ren Legacy Server: Ebon Hawk US/EAST