Former GM chief strategist outlines benefits of autonomous cars in Australia – and motoring clubs are listening

General Motors’ former chief of strategic planning Larry Burns says driverless cars will not only be a reality within a few years, but lucrative business both globally and in Australia.

Speaking at the last in a series of Australian speaking engagements in Brisbane yesterday, Burns said the social and economic benefits of autonomous vehicles will make them commercially attractive around the world by 2018.

Burns, who also spoke in Perth and Adelaide, was invited to speak about the potential of autonomous vehicles by the Australian Automobile Association, which represents local motoring clubs and insurance companies including the NRMA, RACV, RACQ, RAA and RAC, organisations motoring.com.au understands are seriously considering the commercialisation of driverless cars in Australia.

The widely-respected automotive visionary was GM Corporate Vice President of Research & Development and Planning between 1998 and 2009, and is currently the Professor of Engineering Practice at the University of Michigan’s College of Engineering.

Burns is also a consultant to a range of US companies, including Google Inc, which is at the forefront of autonomous vehicle technology and revealed its first fully original self-driving car in May.

“The answer to the question ‘are driverless cars real?’ is absolutely,” he said. “It’s incredible what these cars are capable of doing. The leadership of Google is saying 2017, but I’m saying 2018 to hedge my bets.”

The fully autonomous Google car, which has no steering wheel, pedals or gearshifter, uses GPS, cameras and sensors that can ‘see’ up to 220 metres away to navigate its way to a predetermined address at speeds of up to 40km/h.

“These sensors don’t get tired or distracted and they don’t drink and drive,” said Burns, who added that driverless cars could cut road fatalities by up to 90 per cent.

Google has produced 100 prototypes for US testing from mid-year and plans to commence a California-based pilot program in coming years, although to comply with that state’s automated-driving regulations issued on May 20, the bubble-shape prototype cars will be built with manual controls.

The technology that underpins autonomous cars is already widely available and a number of car-makers are well advanced in the development of driverless vehicle networking, including GM, which developed the Holden-designed two-seat EN-V (Electric Networked-Vehicle) concept of 2010 under Burns’ watch.

However, while the UK government has approved their use as part of a pilot program to begin next year, current legislation in most countries prevents the use of self-driving vehicles and, in the US, autonomous vehicles are permitted only in California, Nevada and Florida.

The FBI has also warned of the risk of automated cars being uses as weapons by terrorists.

Nevertheless, proponents like Google say self-driving cars eliminate the safety risks associated with humans driving while fatigued, distracted or drunk, and could provide transport for young, elderly or disabled people and, potentially, form the taxi fleet of the future.

Burns told local told transport industry representatives that automated cars were ideally suited to Australian cities, where they could improve road safety, eliminate traffic congestion and lower demand for city car parking.

“Basically the car makes two simple decisions simultaneously. ‘How fast should I go and which way should I steer?'” he said.

“Once you get the driver out of the equation the vehicle becomes much safer, given traffic safety experts say about 90 per cent of crashes are due to human error. That’s because people, frankly, aren’t good drivers.

“So if it is safe, the design of the driverless car can then be tailored to the typical trip we take, which is one and two person. That allows us to have a much smaller vehicle, which is much more energy-efficient and space efficient.”

Burns said self-driving vehicles would be 10 times more efficient than conventional vehicles, as well as simple and safe enough to be operated by children.

“Busy families could have their kids use driverless cars so the parents don’t need to do the school drop-off,” he said, adding that vehicles could also be paired up to travel together.”

He said vehicle autonomy could also lead to changes in urban design as space currently devoted to car parking is freed up, as well as extending to trucks, which could be ‘platooned’ in convoy to increase safety and efficiency.

“The car doesn’t park itself – it drops you off and then goes and picks somebody else up nearby,” he said, adding that governments had a responsibility to make roads safer.

“I think it’s going to be very compelling. I think it’s going to grow to a very large scale over the next couple of decades.

“If drivers are, say, three timers safer it’s like finding a cure for Ebola. The regulators have a responsibility to keep people safe on the road, so it’s going to be regulation that limits this, not technology. The risk here is we’re not going fast enough. What’s at risk is the lives of people.”

Beyond those social benefits, however, Burns said the autonomous vehicle industry presented a potentially lucrative business opportunity in Australia.

He said driverless shared vehicle business could be profitable anywhere that population density exceeds 350 people per square kilometre, which includes all of Australia’s state capitals, with Sydney (991) and Canberra (812) both double that figure.

Burns presented a case study conducted in Ann Arbor, Michigan, an area of 130,000 square miles in which 285,000 people own 200,000 vehicles, 120,000 of which are used in the Ann Arbor area.

They averaged 3.7 trips per vehicle per day, with the average trip covering 8.2 miles in 16.3 minutes at 30mph with 1.5 people on board. Each vehicle was used for an average of 60 minutes a day, or around four per cent of the time.

Burns said 18,000 shared autonomous vehicles could provide the same mobility within Ann Arbor as personally owned vehicles, reducing the cost-per-mile by up to 80 per cent while responding to trip requests in less than two minutes. He said reduced parking costs and the value of time not spent driving further increases the benefit.

Another case study of the Manhattan taxi fleet, which includes 13,000-plus vehicles servicing 1.6 million people in 23 square miles at an average of 410,000 trips a day. The average trip involved 1.4 passengers, five minutes’ waiting, two miles, 11 minutes of travel time at an average of 11mph.

Burns said 9000 driverless shared vehicles could reduce the cost per trip from $7 to $1, improve response time from five minutes to one and reduce empty miles per loaded mile from 0.60 to 0.05.

According to Burns, the consumer benefits of connected and co-ordinated driverless cars therefore include crash avoidance, lower insurance costs, hands-free calling, navigation, emergency response, stolen car recovery, concierge service, ‘black box’ crash recorders, remote software upgrades, enhanced situation awareness and lower overall costs.

At the same time, Burns said business opportunities include usage-based insurance, advertising/marketing, vehicle development, warranty cost reduction, vehicle diagnostics and prognostics, fleet management, infotainment, parking systems, road pricing and customer relationship management.

“If you’re on the board of a transport, insurance or energy company, you have to ask yourself if driverless cars are real. The customer advantages and business opportunities are compelling. Automotive transport is ripe for transformation.

“There are implications for motoring clubs. Some things are going to happen sooner and some later. Connected vehicles, co-ordinated vehicles and shared vehicles are a matter of when, not if.”

Burns said organisations like the RACQ not embracing technology like autonomous vehicles risked being left behind. He listed the photography, media, entertainment, computer, telecom and pharmaceutical industries as examples in which “incumbents rarely prevail when industries disrupt”.

“Consumers are putting off car purchases. These days the young person’s rite of passage is their cell phone not their car. With these opportunities there will be some big winners and some big losers.

“Get in front of the inevitable – think big, start small and learn fast. There are 1.3 million RACQ members. Sell assurance, not just insurance. You have to do unto others before others do unto you.

Responding to a suggestion that Holden’s soon-to-close Adelaide plant could produce driverless cars, Burns said: “Manufacturing and making things is very important.

“Our read of the future is all about integrations and I do think Australia could be well placed to take advantage of lower-scale, tailored products.

“You know how to cast, forge and bend metals. The products you make don’t have to be on a huge scale. But you need to get education and policy systems aligned with that.”

While in Adelaide, Burns also spoke to undisclosed manufacturing industry executives about future directions they might consider.

“The ideas we’re talking about might create new opportunities for our local manufacturing industry,” said Penny Gale, a spokesperson for South Australia’s RAA.

“Whether we build the driverless cars here in South Australia or build the robots that will help build those vehicles, it shows a lot of promise.”

Speaking in Perth, Burns said: “Perth feels very much like a US experience, the population densities are very similar and I think people are using cars in pretty much the same way.”

RAC chief executive Terry Agnew said the West Australian motoring organisation would support bringing driverless vehicles to Perth.

“When you look at road safety, WA is the worst in Australia and that’s not acceptable, how many lives might this save? Any new technology and the change is a risk but that’s not a reason not to do it,” he told Fairfax.

Asked what autonomous vehicles meant for driving enthusiast, Burns said: “There are still a lot of people who own, ride and race horses in the US – more than in Henry Ford’s days.

“There’s room for all enthusiasts. Nobody’s saying you can’t drive and operate your own vehicle.

“But my sense tells me there are a lot of situations in which people won’t want to drive. No-one likes being stuck in traffic, right?”