The end goal for most NBA teams (not tanking) is too sip sticky, sweet champagne in early June. But in reality, it takes a superstar or two just to reach the Finals, which essentially takes all but a handful of teams out of title contention from the start.

With the NBA season beginning on October 22nd, we thought that it would be nice to forecast player and team performance. Our model is built on the last four NBA regular seasons (2015-16 through 2018-19), which includes 634 unique players.

We split players into two categories. The first group are considered “NBA regulars” with at least two years of playing experience and averaging a minimum of 22 games and 11.2 minutes per game over the last two seasons. The second group consisted of guys that didn’t make it into the “NBA regulars” group, who were primarily bench, role, or rookie types. Players in the “NBA regulars” group were given more weight in the model than those in the latter group.

Our model is trained on 22 variables, which are mostly per game averages like free throw attempts, steals game, and field goal attempts. The model is tested on the median per game averages of currently contracted players over the past two seasons (2017-18, 2018-19) or just the 2018-19 season for players entering their sophomore year.

The model attempts to predict each player’s value above replacement (VORP) in 2019-20. For reference, VORP estimates each player’s overall contribution to his team measured against what a theoretical replacement player would provide.

VORP is an imperfect metric and many coaches and analysts would argue that a single number can’t encapsulate a player’s worth. But for our purposes, VORP is a good enough baseline benchmark to compare players in the model without digging too deep into scouting reports.

The Top 35 Or So Players

Superstars deliver titles in basketball and GM Darryl Morey has positioned the Houston Rockets to win big this season with the James Harden and Russell Westbrook pairing.

Figure 1: Projecting the 2019-20 value above replacement for some of the NBA’s best talent.

There are no real shocking VORP projections for the top thirty-five or so players this season. One thing is for certain: it’s rare to see so much top tier player movement this offseason like that of Westbrook, George, Leonard, Durant, Butler, Irving, and a multitude of other smaller signings that could dampen the trade market in 2019-20.

Figure 2: Projecting team wins for the 2019-20 NBA regular season.

The above win projections are based entirely on each team’s projected VORP. We are also not taking into account rookies from the 2019 draft class meaning that Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett aren’t part of model. Teams such as New Orleans and Atlanta would have likely received a boost in their win totals from some of their rookie performances.

The model correctly places Cleveland, Memphis, and Charlotte into the cellar but seems to be overly pessimistic on the Miami Heat especially considering the recent Jimmy Butler signing. On the flip side, the Brooklyn Nets are particularly favored in the model even with an injured Kevin Durant!

In all fairness, the Nets are returning Jarrett Allen, Joe Harris, and Spencer Dinwiddie, part of a core that stole a playoff win from Philadelphia. But again, DeAndre Jordan’s seems to be propped up a bit too much in the model and Irving still hasn’t proved to be a capable leader in the playoffs.

Figure 3: 2019-20 value above replacement forecast for Nets players.

To counter, Irving may have spun the Celtics’ team into turmoil last season but he is an immediate upgrade to former point guard D’Angelo Russell (3.4 projected VORP). Although he was slowed down with injuries, Irving played some of the best basketball of his career in Boston and is one of the few game altering guards in this league.

Figure 4: 2019-20 value above replacement forecast for Heat players.

As mentioned, the model still thinks that the Heat are not a playoff team and surprisingly places them below Washington, Phoenix, and Dallas, who will probably finish in the NBA’s bottom-third.

In July, president Pat Riley inked Jimmy Butler to a $140.8m deal over four seasons. Without another star, however, Miami is taking the risk of landing in the “just in or out” phase of playoff contention.

To remedy, Riley might consider trading for Bradley Beal (projected 4.5 VORP) to pair with Butler. Right now, Miami doesn’t have enough depth or star power to topple teams like Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Boston, or perhaps even Toronto in the East.

Figure 5: 2019-20 value above replacement forecast for Clippers players.

With the newly added Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the Clippers are now a power in the Western Conference. It helps that their roster depth is still among the best in the league with Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, and Patrick Beverley, which is a key difference between them and the Lakers’ flimsier supporting cast that surrounds LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

No matter what, NBA teams end up paying 4x to 5x more for a veteran star like George compared to viable NBA starter like Lou Williams. While it’s possible to draft an elite like Joel Embiid or Jamal Murray, front offices still need a healthy dose of luck and sometimes tanking is a dead end (i.e. Phoenix Suns, New York Knicks).

And if our model is any indication of how this NBA season will play out, expect either the Rockets, Clippers, Lakers, Bucks, or 76ers to claim the Raptors’ throne.

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