The first conclusion is a reminder that the Lib Dem vote is fundamentally a protest one – a rejection of the old two party system. Hence, the Lib Dem surges have tended to come at moments when (perversely) the two parties have either seemed to be too similar or have gone off in extreme ideological directions. Their “none of the above” character was compromised by the experience of being in government and the deals done to make the Coalition work. But if they can rebuild their image of being non-partisan, independent minded, anti-establishment, etc, then they can revive. In short, the Lib Dems do well in relation to the two main parties doing badly – and if they present a coherent alternative.