Arctic sea ice volume has crashed over the past 2 months.

Sea ice volume anomalies are at record lows.

Sea Ice Volume is calculated using the Pan - Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) developed at APL/PSC by Dr. J. Zhang and collaborators. Anomalies for each day are calculated relative to the average over the 1979 - 2009 period for that day to remove the annual cycle. The model mean seasonal cycle of sea ice volume ranges from 28,600 km^3 in April to 14,400 km^3 in September. The blue line represents the trend calculated from January 1 1979 to the most recent date indicated on the figure. Total Arctic Ice Volume for March 2010 is 20,300 km^3, the lowest over the 1979-2009 period and 38% below the 1979 maximum. September Ice Volume was lowest in 2009 at 5,800 km^3 or 67% below its 1979 maximum. Shaded areas represent one and two standard deviations of the anomaly from the trend.

Sea ice areas which had recovered to near normal levels in March are now at record lows for the date. Arctic sea ice area is in free fall because an exceptionally large percentage of the ice area in March consisted of very thin first year ice.

Arctic sea ice extent is at a record low for this date.

Time series of Arctic sea ice extent (total area of at least 15% ice concentration).

Last update: 27 May, 2010. Sea ice area calculated from Advanced Microwave Satellite AMSR-E data using the ARTIST sea ice algorithm by the University of Bremen.

Arctic sea ice, subjected to record high temperatures broke up at a record pace.



April 2010 was the warmest April on record. The greatest warming was in the Arctic. Temperatures were more than ten degrees Fahrenheit above normal across much of the Arctic. That warming has continued into May.

Rapid warming in the Arctic has triggered a feedback loop with melting sea ice. As the ice melts, the sea takes up more solar heat and the Arctic warms more. As the Arctic warms more, more ice melts. This feedback loop may be causing a catastrophic collapse of sea ice this year.

Over the past year warm, salty water has flowed into the Arctic from the north Atlantic, melting sea ice from below.

Arctic ocean surface salinity anomalies for May 26, 2010.



Warm salty water has intruded into the Arctic ocean at 100 meters depth.

Arctic Ocean salinity anomaly at 100 meters depth model calculated by Mercator Ocean



This warm salty water may be destabilizing the methane clathrates on the Siberian shelf. Catastrophic Siberian shelf methane clathrate destabilization is a very serious concern being raised by Arctic scientists.

The Siberian shelf, the largest shallow continental shelf in the world, stores enormous amounts of methane as frozen clathrates. However, because the water is shallow, the water pressure isn't high enough to prevent clathrate melting and methane gas release when the water warms.



Arctic researchers found large methane plumes in the water above the Siberian shelf last year.



Tuesday was the anniversary of John F. Kennedy's great 1961 speech commencing the Apollo program to land on the moon.



On May 25, 1961, President John F. Kennedy announced before a special joint session of Congress the dramatic and ambitious goal of sending an American safely to the Moon before the end of the decade. A number of political factors affected Kennedy's decision and the timing of it. In general, Kennedy felt great pressure to have the United States "catch up to and overtake" the Soviet Union in the "space race." Four years after the Sputnik shock of 1957, the cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin had become the first human in space on April 12, 1961, greatly embarrassing the U.S. While Alan Shepard became the first American in space on May 5, he only flew on a short suborbital flight instead of orbiting the Earth, as Gagarin had done. In addition, the Bay of Pigs fiasco in mid-April put unquantifiable pressure on Kennedy. He wanted to announce a program that the U.S. had a strong chance at achieving before the Soviet Union. After consulting with Vice President Johnson, NASA Administrator James Webb, and other officials, he concluded that landing an American on the Moon would be a very challenging technological feat, but an area of space exploration in which the U.S. actually had a potential lead. Thus the cold war is the primary contextual lens through which many historians now view Kennedy's speech.

The decision involved much consideration before making it public, as well as enormous human efforts and expenditures to make what became Project Apollo a reality by 1969. Only the construction of the Panama Canal in modern peacetime and the Manhattan Project in war were comparable in scope. NASA's overall human spaceflight efforts were guided by Kennedy's speech; Projects Mercury (at least in its latter stages), Gemini, and Apollo were designed to execute Kennedy's goal. His goal was achieved on July 20, 1969, when Apollo 11 commander Neil Armstrong stepped off the Lunar Module's ladder and onto the Moon's surface.

Today we face much higher stakes, but we already have all the technology we need to succeed. Our weakness is political will. The mission to convert from a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy economy must be done with the speed commitment of Kennedy's space program. Like the space program, the jobs and improvements that will come from the progress of developing a green economy, will provide huge economic benefits.

The alternative is Hellish.