Now that the season is nearly two-thirds over, you might think that there are no more reasons to question the performance of players who have surprised us this year, both in good and bad ways. With many regulars having amassed 400 plate appearances or more, there's no need to talk about statistical flukes and their impact on Fantasy, right?

Actually, that's wrong. While there are far fewer players with suspicious-looking batting averages at this point in the season, a few candidates for correction still remain. Knowing who they are is still important in Fantasy. What if we had taken Brennan Boesch's .300 average in late July at face value last season? Owners who ignored the high popup rate that signaled that the impending batting average collapse likely left the rookie in their lineups for chunks of August and September, wondering what was going wrong as he rode out the rest of the year at a sub-.200 clip.

Just as Boesch was able to maintain some head-scratching trends through 400-plus plate appearances a year ago, several hitters are currently keeping up improbable streaks that seems as unending as this summer's heat wave. Both will eventually have to end, though.

The graph below isolates the flukiest hitters into "likely lucky" and "likely unlucky" boxes based on their line drive and popup rates. Further below are analyses of four hitters who appear to be beneficiaries of some good luck on balls in play based on their line drive and popup rates, as well as another four who need to appease the BABIP gods. I've also added four hitters who have stats that may look fluky, but their line drive and popup rates suggest otherwise. Stats are for all games played through Monday, July 25.

Who has probably been lucky?

Justin Upton, OF, Arizona: With a .301 batting average in late July and a 20/20 season looking like a certainty, Upton appears to be breaking out in a big way. There's much to like about Upton's fourth full season: he's striking out less often, attempting more steals and hitting more flyballs, which in turn has led to more power. With those extra airborne shots, though, have come more flyballs of the infield variety, yet Upton's BABIP has dropped only slightly from previous levels. While Upton could easily top his career-best 26 homers of two years ago, his batting average is likely to sag over the next two months.

Melky Cabrera, OF, Kansas City: Cabrera has wound up being one of the best value picks this year, going late or not at all in standard mixed league drafts, yet ranking among the top dozen outfielders in Rotisserie and Head-to-Head formats. Much of Cabrera's surprising success is owed to his .300 batting average and the run-producing opportunities that it has afforded him. However, Cabrera isn't really any different at the plate now than he was before, as he is still an aggressive contact hitter who tends to produce grounders. It just so happens that he is batting .291 on those ground balls, as opposed to the averages in the .220s that he posted each of the last two seasons. While he's not likely to be the .255 hitter overall that he was a year ago, Cabrera could bear more of a resemblance to that version of himself going forward than to one we've seen more recently.

Dexter Fowler, OF, Colorado: Fowler's early-season struggles earned him a minor-league demotion, but since returning to the Rockies' lineup, he's been nearly unstoppable. Despite a continuing aversion to making contact, Fowler is batting .342 since his recall just over two weeks ago, as he is 13 for 26 (.500) on balls in play. That has lifted his season BABIP to .371 and his overall batting average to .254. Fowler hasn't actually improved his skills, though, and he's striking out and popping up more than he has in past seasons. Part of Fowler's allure as a prospect was his ability to get hits on balls in play, but until he can improve his line drive and popup rates, owners should not assume that his minor league trends will translate to the majors. More to the point, Fowler is striking and popping out too often to maintain even his modest .250s batting average.

Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee: Lucroy has not been the contact hitter he was last season or in his minor-league years, but he has been rewarded with a .280 batting average that is higher than that from his rookie year or his prior season in Double-A. Lucroy was not a high-BABIP hitter before this year, but in all fairness, he has made strides in his line drive hitting. Nonetheless, his current .342 BABIP is not in line with a still-mediocre 20 percent line drive rate. The downturn has already started for Lucroy, who is having a difficult July (.254 batting average, no extra-base hits). Look for more of the same from here on out.

Who has probably been unlucky?

Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis: You're probably not worried about Pujols, but you may very well be curious as to why he ranks just eighth in Rotisserie and Head-to-Head value. A jump of eight percentage points in his ground ball rate has played a role, and it's especially hurt his doubles production (only 14 two-baggers through 88 games). Apparent bad luck has left its mark, too, as The Machine is posting a career-worst .248 BABIP. Given that Pujols is popping out infrequently and he's on a typical home run and strikeout pace, it's almost shocking that he's batting just .275. There's nothing wrong with Albert, and owners should continue to view him as one of the elite producers in Fantasy.

Angel Pagan, OF, N.Y. Mets: In the short-term, Pagan is a source of worry for owners, as he is missing time due to dehydration. Longer-term, though, things are looking up for the Mets' center fielder. He is the only hitter who landed in the sweet spot of both "likely unlucky" boxes in the Lucky/Unlucky tool above. This means that there is probably no other hitter as poised to rebound from a subpar BABIP as Pagan is. With slightly favorable line drive and popup rates and a slimmed-down strikeout rate, Pagan should be having an even better season this year than last. Instead, he is hitting a lackluster .232 and is on waivers in 28 percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com. Despite his current health woes, Pagan is an excellent buy-low candidate right now.

Danny Valencia, 3B, Minnesota: All that really separates Valencia's current sophomore season from his rookie campaign is his BABIP on line drives. His rate has sunk from .804 a year ago to .544, which is the fifth-lowest rate in the majors. If not for that, Valencia would be having a season much like he did in 2010. In this context, the 26-year-old's robust July performance looks more like a correction and less like an isolated hot streak. Valencia has more value in a thinned-out third-base market than his 68 percent ownership rate would indicate.

Justin Smoak, 1B, Seattle: As in his rookie season, Smoak is getting weighed down by a low batting average on ground balls, which currently sits at .181. Smoak is not fleet of foot, but even so, his ground ball batting average seems extremely low. Both this season and last, he has ranked behind such speedsters as Adam Lind, Lyle Overbay and David Ortiz in this batted ball stat, and it stands to reason that he should be just as adept at getting ground ball base hits as any of this trio. Smoak has been in an awful funk for most of the year, but it appears that he is due for some better luck sooner than later.

Who has been neither lucky nor unlucky (based on current batted ball rates)?

Mark Teixeira, 1B, N.Y. Yankees: Teixeira's batting average is in its third straight year of decline. Not coincidentally, his popup rate is on the rise for the third straight year. Tex's home run and RBI production aren't suffering under weight of all these shallow flyballs, but in addition to his batting average, his run-scoring is taking a significant hit. Because he is still producing power, Teixeira is managing to hold his value in Head-to-Head leagues, but unless he reverses his popup trend, he will have a hard time keeping up with the first base elite in Rotisserie.

Vernon Wells, OF, L.A. Angels: Since 2008, only Chris Young has popped out more than Wells, but Wells is working hard to overtake his Diamondback counterpart. He has increased an already-hefty popup rate, and in a related story, Wells also owns the majors' third-lowest line drive rate. Add in a dash of poor strike zone judgment, and you have the perfect recipe for a .220 batting average. With all of Wells' long-term trends tracking in the wrong direction, there is little hope for him to raise that mark. Worse yet, he is not hitting for power at his new pitcher-friendly home park, so there's no reason to start Wells in most mixed leagues when he has a full slate of games at Angel Stadium.

Michael Bourn, OF, Houston: Despite being one of the faster players in the game, until recently, Bourn had not been able to utilize his speed to generate a high BABIP, as he hit too few liners and too many grounders. Over the last several weeks, all that has changed. Bourn has been increasing his line drive rate throughout the season, and he now has the second-highest rate among big league hitters. Bourn came into this season as a top Rotisserie outfielder, but now with the ability to hit even more doubles and triples into the gap, Bourn has become a legitimate top 15 outfielder in Head-to-Head formats.

Marlon Byrd, Chicago Cubs: With a .314 batting average, Byrd is hitting 30 points above his career norm. It's no accident, as he leads the major leagues with a 27 percent line drive rate. Byrd is normally an average line drive hitter, so at age 33, this is not likely to be a long-lasting trend. For as long as it continues, though, Byrd will be worth starting in mixed Rotisserie leagues.

Glossary xFIP: Also known as Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It is an estimate of what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based on factors that a pitcher can control, such as strikeouts, walks and flyballs. xFIP is a derivative of FIP, which was developed by Tom Tango.

Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James

Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James

GO/AO -- Ground out-fly out ratio

GB/FB -- Ground ball-fly ball ratio

Batting Average per Balls in Play (BABIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%

Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth

Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)

Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats



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