In terms of temperature anomalies, there is a pretty clear signal for colder-than-normal conditions in much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation during these analog years with warmer-than-normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest (i.e., resembling the “di-pole” pattern cited earlier for “Modoki” El Nino winter seasons). As far as precipitation is concerned, these analog years featured wetter-than-normal conditions along the east coast which makes some sense in my opinion given the expectation of a “centrally-based” El Nino which tends to energize the southern branch of the jet stream which, in turn, often results in higher probability of east coast storms. Much of the western half of the nation featured normal to below-normal precipitation amounts in these analog years.

Soil Moisture

One other factor to consider as we approach the winter season has to do with the high amounts of rainfall that has been experienced this summer and fall in much of the eastern half of the nation. As a result of persistent and substantial rainfall in recent months, soil moisture content is very high as we approach the upcoming winter season in much of the eastern part of the nation. This condition adds to prospects for a long-wave trough of low pressure to set up in the eastern US given boosted humidity levels in the lower atmosphere (less dense air, lower pressure) and this kind of upper-level pattern would favor the penetration of cold air masses into the central and eastern US from cold source regions to the north.