AP Photo Senate Dems confident they can block Iran disapproval

Top Senate Democrats are increasingly confident they can block GOP legislation that would scuttle the nuclear deal with Iran, likely sparing President Barack Obama from having to wield his veto pen.

Some rank-and-file Democrats have been wary of filibustering the measure for fear of being labeled obstructionists. Seeking to soothe those worries, Democrats devoted their first party lunch after the long August recess to assessing how the 42 members who back the nuclear deal’s substance would vote on a procedural step to take up the bill.


Whip counts on the parliamentary tactics have become more important as negotiations between Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) aimed at speeding a vote have deadlocked.

McConnell would like a vote on the resolution to have a 50-vote threshold for passage, but Reid and his fellow Democrats want a higher bar for sending the measure to the president’s desk. The impasse is likely to lead to a decisive procedural vote at the usual 60-vote threshold, and Democrats think they can win and count on all 42 Democrats who are in favor of the deal to vote against advancing the GOP disapproval resolution.

“We have 42 senators that are in favor of the deal and they will continue voting that way,” Reid told reporters.

McConnell filed cloture on the Iran disapproval measure on Wednesday evening, setting up a Friday procedural vote, although it could come up earlier if senators in both parties agree.

Leadership aides have also warned that Republicans may force more than one cloture vote if Democrats continue to filibuster the resolution, although it's unclear how multiple votes would change the outcome.

McConnell, Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn. ) and other Republicans are arguing that blocking the measure on a procedural vote is not in the spirit of the law that set the stage for the disapproval resolution. Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) said a Democratic filibuster “cannot stand.”

But almost all critical business of the Senate is conducted at a 60-vote threshold. And despite reservations over appearing obstructionist, Democrats seem prepared to reject a move by McConnell to cut off debate on the disapproval resolution at the 60-vote threshold.

“There’s a positive response in the caucus. Let’s get down to the bottom line here. What McConnell wants to do is to prevail on the disapproval with a simple majority vote, something never envisioned in this statute,” Durbin said. “And then send this off to the president so he can veto it, come back here, clearly understanding we’re not going to override the veto of the president.”

McConnell has not yet set up that filibuster vote, but he may be resigned to it and could move to set up a procedural vote later this week. Asked how Democrats would respond to that, Reid replied: “If he wants to waste the time to have a cloture vote, that’s fine. But let’s not play games here, a vote on cloture is a vote for the Iran deal or not the Iran deal.”

But the GOP leader wants to make sure he has the last word as Democrats pledge to continue taking a tough stance toward Iran with potential new legislation aimed at keeping Tehran's leaders in line — likely an effort to burnish their hawkish bona fides. McConnell said going forward he will only take up Iran legislation that has veto-proof backing, payback for what McConnell believes is tough talk and little follow through from Senate Democrats.

"Every single one of them is going to want to trivialize this vote, try to convince their constituents that they are really tough on Iran. We'll be happy to take up any bill that legitimately goes after the Iranian regime just as soon as it has enough co-sponsors to override a presidential veto," McConnell said.