Greetings fellow hive scum! This week in Hammer of Math we’re going back to Hive Primus to take another look at the math behind Necromunda. We’re doing a deep dive into all the ranged weapons, comparing how the various options such as Scattershot and Gas affect the probability of putting the hurt on your opponent.

We covered the basics behind how Necromunda functions back in December, but one of the things that makes this game so much fun is the sheer variety of weapons and options that gangers can bring. Want to shoot a giant harpoon that can impale your enemy and hit the guy behind them? There’s a gun for that. Want to use a hand-held fusion gun capable of melting hole through the armor of an Astartes? There’s a gun for that. Want to unleash alien heresy upon the planet and surround your foe in a cloud of xenos crafted needles? Well it’s not a gun, but there’s a box for that. The wacky and weird options that Necromunda offers can be a lot of fun, but it can also be overwhelming for a player. The intent of this article to take a look at those options and help players avoid traps (and help Arbitrators tweak things as needed).

The Method

For this analysis we’re looking at probability. Every attack is a sequence of events with a defined chance of success; the accumulation of those probabilities results in a final value that we can compare between weapons. For the purpose of this analysis we’re going to set a defined goal; the probability that the attack will cause a Serious Injury or Out of Action against a common ganger target. For the purpose of this article we’ll be focusing on ranged weapons only, and if there’s interest melee weapons might be looked at in the future. The target in this case will be a T3, S3, 1W ganger with a 5+ armor save. This means the attack will have to hit, wound, get through the armor, and not result in a Flesh Wound result on the Injury die. We’ll also have to incorporate several effects based on the attributes of the weapon. The specific abilities are below:

Template: The weapon automatically hits if the target is under a template.

Blast: The weapon has either a 3″ or 5″ blast template, making it easier to hit the target as even a miss has a chance to scatter and stay over the target. This was covered in the previous article; we’re assuming a 25mm base for this analysis.

Blaze: If the target is hit the player rolls a die; on a 4+ the target takes an additional S3, AP -1, 1D hit and can be set on fire.

Gas: If hit the player rolls a d6; if the result is equal to or greater than the Toughness characteristic of the target then it is automatically wounded and an Injury die is immediately rolled.

Graviton: Instead of a wound roll, the target model must roll equal to or under their Strength characteristic or they will be wounded.

Melta: At half range the target is automatically taken Out of Action if an Injury roll is made.

Pulverize: After making an Injury roll the attacking player can roll a d6; if the result is equal to or greater than the Toughness characteristic of the target then a Flesh Wound result can be changed into a Serious Injury.

Rending: On a wound roll of a natural 6 the damage of the attack is increased by 1.

Scattershot: If the attack hits then d6 wound rolls are made instead of 1.

Seismic: On a wound roll of a natural 6 no armor save can be made against the attack.

Shock: On a hit roll of a natural 6 the wound roll is automatically passed.

Toxin: Instead of a wound roll the player must roll equal to or greater than the Toughness characteristic of the target. If successful the target is automatically injured regardless of how many wounds it has. I assumed that an armor save was still made since Toxin weapons have an AP characteristic.

Webbing: If the target is hit, it is “Webbed” which is functionally identical to a Serious Injury result.

There are some important caveats here. First, this analysis completely ignores range or cost. Both are critically important for determining the final efficacy of a weapon, particularly cost. Another caveat is that as the campaign advances armor becomes significantly more prevalent, making penetration a key stat. In a future article we may revisit this chart and look at representative threats from later on in the campaign.

The Results

I debated a bunch of ways to show this, but I decided a table that you can sort and look through would be the best. Note that if you can’t find a specific ammunition option (for example rad-phage shotgun shells) look for something with identical stats (like standard shotgun ammunition). I only added ammunition if the result would be different with respect to the probability of inflicting a Serious Injury result. I’ve also provided a version of this on Google Sheets that you can download; access it here.

Probability of Serious Injury

Weapon Type Ammo/Option 2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ Lasgun Basic Standard 19% 15% 11% 7% 4% Lasgun Basic Focusing Crystal 28% 22% 17% 11% 6% Laspistol Pistol Standard 19% 15% 11% 7% 4% Laspistol Pistol Focusing Crystal 28% 22% 17% 11% 6% Las Carbine Basic Standard 28% 22% 17% 11% 6% Las Carbine Basic Focusing Crystal 39% 31% 23% 16% 8% Las Subcarbine Pistol Standard 28% 22% 17% 11% 6% Las Subcarbine Pistol Focusing Crystal 39% 31% 23% 16% 8% Long Las Special Standard 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Long Las Special Focusing Crystal 37% 30% 22% 15% 7% Suppression Laser Basic Broad 34% 27% 20% 14% 7% Suppression Laser Basic Short 33% 26% 20% 13% 7% Suppression Laser Basic Focusing Crystal 49% 40% 30% 20% 10% Lascannon Heavy 67% 53% 40% 27% 13% Autopistol Pistol Standard 28% 22% 17% 11% 6% Autopistol Pistol Fragmentation 34% 27% 20% 13% 7% Autopistol Pistol Manstopper 35% 28% 21% 14% 7% Autopistol Pistol Static 32% 27% 21% 16% 10% Autogun Basic Standard 28% 22% 17% 11% 6% Autogun Basic Fragmentation 34% 27% 20% 13% 7% Autogun Basic Manstopper 35% 28% 21% 14% 7% Autogun Basic Static 32% 27% 21% 16% 10% Compact Autopistol Pistol 19% 15% 11% 8% 4% Boltgun Basic Standard 53% 43% 32% 21% 11% Boltgun Basic Gas 38% 32% 26% 20% 14% Boltgun Basic Gunk 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Boltgun Basic Shatter 24% 20% 16% 12% 9% Boltgun Basic Penetrator 62% 49% 37% 25% 12% Bolt Pistol Pistol Standard 41% 33% 25% 16% 8% Bolt Pistol Pistol Gas 38% 32% 26% 20% 14% Bolt Pistol Pistol Gunk 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Bolt Pistol Pistol Shatter 24% 20% 16% 12% 9% Storm Bolter Special Standard 73% 58% 44% 29% 15% Storm Bolter Special Gas 38% 32% 26% 20% 14% Storm Bolter Special Gunk 56% 45% 33% 22% 11% Storm Bolter Special Shatter 24% 20% 16% 12% 9% Heavy Bolter Special Standard 77% 62% 46% 31% 11% Heavy Bolter Special Gunk 56% 45% 33% 22% 11% Warpstorm Bolter Basic Standard 53% 43% 32% 21% 11% Hand Flamer Pistol 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% Scrap Flamer Special 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% Flamer Special 42% 42% 42% 42% 42% Heavy Flamer Heavy 49% 49% 49% 49% 49% Blasting Charges Grenade 44% 39% 33% 28% 22% Choke Grenade 38% 32% 26% 20% 14% Demolitions Charges Grenade 71% 63% 54% 45% 35% Fire Bomb Grenade 23% 19% 16% 12% 8% Frag Grenade 19% 16% 13% 10% 7% Krak Grenade 62% 49% 37% 25% 12% Melta Bombs Grenade 67% 53% 40% 27% 13% Mindflect Shard Grenade 25% 22% 19% 16% 12% Phosphor Canister Grenade 55% 46% 37% 28% 20% Plasma Grenade 42% 36% 29% 22% 15% Rad Grenade 19% 16% 13% 10% 7% Scare Grenade 38% 32% 26% 20% 14% Stun Grenade 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% Inferno Pistol Pistol Long Range 62% 49% 37% 25% 12% Inferno Pistol Pistol Short Range 69% 56% 42% 28% 14% Meltagun Special Long Range 67% 53% 40% 27% 13% Meltagun Special Short Range 69% 56% 42% 28% 14% Multi-Melta Heavy Long Range 69% 58% 47% 35% 25% Multi-Melta Heavy Short Range 72% 60% 48% 37% 26% Plasma Pistol Pistol Low 41% 33% 25% 16% 8% Plasma Pistol Pistol Maximal 67% 53% 40% 27% 13% Plasma Gun Special Low 53% 43% 32% 21% 11% Plasma Gun Special Maximal 67% 53% 40% 27% 13% Plasma Cannon Heavy Low 63% 50% 38% 25% 13% Plasma Cannon Heavy Maximal 69% 58% 47% 35% 25% Rad Gun Special 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% Rad Cannon Heavy 20% 17% 15% 12% 10% Grav-Gun Special 32% 27% 21% 16% 11% Grav Cannon Heavy 33% 29% 25% 21% 16% Combat Shotgun Basic Salvo Fire 45% 36% 27% 18% 9% Combat Shotgun Basic Shredder Blast 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% Combat Shotgun Basic Firestorm Shells 42% 42% 42% 42% 42% Combat Shotgun Basic Gas Shells 38% 32% 26% 20% 14% Combat Shotgun Basic Shatter 24% 20% 16% 12% 9% Sawn-off Shotgun Basic Standard 45% 36% 27% 18% 9% Sawn-off Shotgun Basic Shatter 24% 20% 16% 12% 9% Shotgun Basic Acid Rounds 56% 45% 34% 22% 11% Shotgun Basic Executioner Ammo 41% 33% 25% 16% 8% Shotgun Basic Gas Shells 38% 32% 26% 20% 14% Shotgun Basic Inferno Ammo 29% 23% 17% 11% 6% Shotgun Basic Scatter Ammo 34% 27% 20% 14% 7% Shotgun Basic Shatter Shells 24% 20% 16% 12% 9% Shotgun Basic Solid Ammo 33% 26% 20% 13% 7% Stub Gun Pistol Standard 19% 15% 11% 7% 4% Stub Gun Pistol Dum Dum 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Heavy Stubber Heavy Standard 63% 51% 38% 25% 13% Heavy Stubber Heavy Static 67% 54% 41% 28% 15% Long Rifle Special Standard 31% 25% 19% 12% 6% Long Rifle Special Static 34% 28% 22% 15% 9% Web Pistol Pistol 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% Web Projector Pistol 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% Web Gun Special 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% Web Shooter Special 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% Needle Pistol Pistol 31% 25% 19% 12% 6% Needle Long Rifle Special 37% 30% 22% 15% 7% Blunderbuss Basic Grape Shot 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% Blunderbuss Basic Purgation Shot 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% Blunderbuss Basic Emperor's Wrath 41% 33% 25% 16% 8% Heavy Crossbow Heavy Frag 26% 23% 20% 17% 13% Heavy Crossbow Heavy Krak 62% 49% 37% 25% 12% Flechette Pistol Pistol Solid 28% 22% 17% 11% 6% Flechette Pistol Pistol Fleshbane 35% 28% 21% 14% 7% Nightshade Chem Thrower Special 44% 44% 44% 44% 44% Concussion Carbine Special 25% 21% 17% 13% 9% Heavy Concussion Ram Heavy 33% 28% 23% 17% 12% SLHG Assault Ram Launcher Heavy Choke Grenades 38% 32% 26% 20% 14% SLHG Assault Ram Launcher Heavy Gas Grenades 19% 16% 13% 10% 7% Sniper Rifle Special 33% 27% 20% 13% 7% Mining Laser Heavy 67% 53% 40% 27% 13% Seismic Cannon Heavy Short Wave 64% 51% 39% 26% 13% Krumper Rivet Cannon Heavy Rapid Fire 54% 43% 32% 22% 11% Krumper Rivet Cannon Heavy Super-Heated Rivet 67% 53% 40% 27% 13% Storm Welder Special 70% 57% 43% 29% 16% Stub Cannon Basic Standard 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Stub Cannon Basic Static Rounds 27% 22% 17% 12% 7% Assault Grenade Launcher Heavy Stun 23% 19% 14% 9% 5% Assault Grenade Launcher Heavy Frag 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% Assault Grenade Launcher Heavy Krak 62% 49% 37% 25% 12% Assault Grenade Launcher Heavy Long Wave 51% 41% 31% 20% 10% Harpoon Launcher Heavy 37% 30% 22% 15% 7% Autocannon Heavy 70% 56% 42% 28% 14% Arc Rifle Basic 42% 34% 26% 19% 11% Balefire Thrower Special 54% 54% 54% 54% 54% Demiurg Energy Drill Heavy 62% 49% 37% 25% 12% Hrud Fusil Special Low 63% 50% 38% 25% 13% Hrud Fusil Special Maximal 67% 53% 40% 27% 13% Kai Hellspear Special 38% 30% 23% 15% 8% Kroot long rifle Basic 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Missile Launcher Heavy Frag 33% 29% 25% 21% 16% Missile Launcher Heavy Krak 67% 53% 40% 27% 13% Mole Launcher Heavy 48% 40% 32% 24% 17% Necrotic Beamer Special 77% 62% 46% 31% 15% Neural Flayer Special Full Blast 59% 59% 59% 59% 59% Rak'Gol Razor Gun Basic 69% 56% 42% 28% 14% Sling Gun Basic 49% 39% 30% 20% 10% Stake-Crossbow Basic 19% 15% 11% 7% 4% Withertouch Pistol Pistol 28% 22% 17% 11% 6% Yu'vath Puzzle Box Special 79% 63% 47% 32% 16% Assault Cannon (Iron Automata) Heavy 63% 51% 38% 25% 13% Assault Stubber Heavy Standard 63% 51% 38% 25% 13% Assault Stubber Heavy Tracer 77% 62% 46% 31% 15% Twin-Linked Heavy Las Carbine Heavy 67% 54% 40% 27% 13% Twin-Linked Heavy Stubber Heavy 79% 64% 48% 32% 16%

Some Takeaways

Web weapons are scary. As template weapons they ignore poor BS, armor and wounds have no effect, and the web effect itself is identical to a Serious Injury result. This makes them an extremely reliable and evil means of disrupting your opponent, and it even works in later campaigns. Note that the Web Pistol does not have the Sidearm trait so you can’t run around pretending to be Spiderman… which is a shame.

The Yu’Vath Puzzle Box is one of the nastiest weapons in the game, particularly with higher BS. The Puzzle Box is an interesting weapon as it combines Rapid Fire 3 with the Scattershot ability, meaning you could potentially get 18 wounds off a single attack. Like all of the direct attacks it’s gated behind the hit roll being successful, and at a 2+ BS it’s the most lethal ranged weapon available. The caveat is that with three dice you have about a 42% chance of getting at least one out of ammo result.

Fear the Blunderbuss. A lot of the high performing weapons are expensive, elite options that require the use of Champions or Leader. Not so the humble Blunderbuss. A template weapon with Scattershot means you’re going to hit regardless of your skill, and when you do hit you will hit hard. 85 credits for a Cawdor ganger with a polearm/blunderbuss is a pretty scary prospect.

Multi-meltas are wonderful things. Turns out bringing an anti-tank murder cannon to a gang war can really make a difference. Give one to your 2+ BS Van Saar Leader or Heavy and laugh as your opponent turns into a pile of ash.

Wrapping Up

We’re just scratching the surface of this data and I hope you can get something useful out of it. Please look over things and let us know your thoughts. If you have any comments or questions, feel free to drop a note in the comments below or email us at contact@goonhammer.com and we’ll be happy to answer them. As always I highly recommend checking out our Necromunday series. Dan and Merton are absolute fanatics about this game and are a fantastic resource.

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