Sep 28, 2013; Foxborough, MA, USA; Houston midfielder Oscar Boniek Garcia during the second half of their 1-1 tie with the New England Revolution at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Dynamo’s return to the Major League Soccer’s Western Conference has been a rollercoaster ride all season however with basically ten games remaining in the regular season, head coach Owen Coyle’s team remains in the thick of the playoff race. How realistic are Houston’s playoff possibilities?

Ten points currently separate fourth place Portland and ninth place Real Salt Lake. Making things even more interesting is that only five points separate top ranked Los Angeles from fifth place FC Dallas. So in a very competitive conference, nine of the ten teams have a chance at being n the playoffs come October 27th. Prior to the Coyle era, Houston would figure that anywhere between 50 and 53 points would be enough to secure a berth in the postseason. Houston currently has 31 points through 24 games. In order to reach the magic number of 50 points, the Dynamo will need to go no less than 6-3-1 in their final 10 matches. Since going to a 34 game season in 2011, the average number of points needed to make the playoffs is 48.2 in the Western Conference.

Taking a look at Houston’s remaining ten game schedule, winning six games is not be a monumental task, at least on paper considering that Houston’s remaining ten opponents are just a combined two games over .500 with a goal differential of plus one. The Dynamo must take advantage of teams like Colorado, the Philadelphia Union and RSL if they intend to make the playoffs. The teams they are chasing, primarily Portland, FC Dallas and Seattle, will all be playing a tougher schedule.

Working against the Houston side is their inability to score consistently but more importantly their lack of scoring on the road. The Dynamo feature both the second worst overall goal differential of any team in the Western Conference playoff hunt and the second worst road goal differential at minus seven. In four of the team’s last five road games, Houston has been shutout three times and scored once in another. Over that same span, the men in orange have been outscored 7-3 posting a 1-3-1 record. Throughout the course of the season, the Dynamo have scored just eight road goals in 12 matches and suffered through six shutouts.

Here is how I think things could stack up:

Houston has a home and away series with Vancouver, the second best team in the West. I don’t see a win in the series for the Dynamo.

Houston has a home and away with Colorado, arguably the worst team in the Western Conference. I see two wins.

I foresee a losses on the road to Vancouver and FC Dallas, wins at Philadelphia and Colorado and a draw against Portland meaning Houston doubles their road win totals for the season in the final five road contests and has a respectable 2-2-1 road record in their last five away from BBVA Compass Stadium.

In Houston, the team that owns the MLS record for the longest home unbeaten streak will have to play their best soccer if they expect to be in the playoffs. I don’t think the Dynamo will beat Vancouver or SKC however wins against RSL and Colorado are expected. I believe Houston’s season hinges on game 33 and 34 against the Seattle Sounders on October 18th and against Vancouver on Oct0ber 25th. I can hope for two wins but I don’t see it. I expect that the Dynamo will finish the final ten games at 5-4-1. I see the closing skein being D-W-L-W-W-L-W-L-W-L. With this scenario, Houston does not make the playoffs.

If the prognostications are right, here is the Western Conference final standings 4-9 as I see it. We don’t have to worry about tenth place, that belongs to Colorado.

4. FC Dallas 16-9-9 57 points

5. Portland 13-11-10 49 points

6. Seattle 15-15-4 49 points

7. Houston 13-13-8 47 points

8. San Jose 13-14-7 46 points

9. RSL 9-15-10 37 points

On the flip side, Houston can make the playoffs if they beat Colorado twice, the Philadelphia Union once, RSL once and can find two more wins out of the remaining games with SKC, FC Dallas, Portland and Seattle or if they manage a split with Vancouver and find one more win against the other four to finish with 50 points.