The impact of coronavirus on Chinese factories and tourism could result in a significant hit to Australian retailers and the broader economy, according to analysts from Commonwealth Bank and ANZ.

Electronics retailers such as JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman could see significant disruption to their supply of computers, TVs and smartphones as China’s coronavirus outbreak closes the factories where electronics are made.

Smartphone factories, including Foxconn, the supplier of Apple’s iPhones, have already closed in China, with industry analysts predicting a 12% production slump.

And Chinese tourists and international students also spend more at Australian retailers than other nationalities, meaning that the government’s ongoing travel ban will also damage the sector.

Felicity Emmett, senior economist at ANZ, told Guardian Australia that the city of Wuhan was a hub for electronics factories.

“Wuhan is a high-tech centre so they are going to be producing a lot of these things that are due for export to areas like Australia. So it is entirely feasible that there are going to be areas in that sector that are going to be hit because of the lack of production.

“What we are already seeing in parts of Asia is issues with the supply chain,” she said. “We know that Hyundai have closed their factory in South Korea because they can’t get parts out of China.

“Our largest import from China is telecommunications equipment – nearly $9bn worth. The next one is computers. So it’s very significant. Twenty per cent of our imports from China are telecommunications or computers.”

Michael Blythe, chief economist from Commonwealth Bank, said the disruption could “come through very quickly”.

“One of the ways the disruption from this virus plays out, global production chains basically stop working,” he said. “Electronics are a classic example of those chains. If those factories aren’t working or not working to their normal capacity you can see this disruption coming through very quickly”.

The experts said it was possible to see higher prices as a result, but more likely it would lead to shortages and delays for goods such as TVs and computers.

“It is more likely to impact the overall supply chain,” Emmett said. “It might not be that the finished good is being exported from that region. It might be that the parts can’t be supplied. Particular items might not be available.”

Australia’s shipping routes have not been particularly affected by the government’s travel restrictions, according to the CEO of Ports Australia, Mike Gallacher.

He said both maritime imports and exports were continuing as usual.

The government’s travel ban, announced on 1 February, requires any person who passes through mainland China to spend at least 14 days outside of China before entering Australia. But many cargo ships from China to Australia already take 13 or 14 days to arrive, creating only slight delays.

“We can fortunately say there have been no reported major disturbances to the supply chain”, Gallacher told Guardian Australia.

“As an island nation with 98% of its trade coming through our ports, imports and exports must and will continue with the addition of extra safety measures.”

The chief executive of JB Hi-Fi, Richard Murray, told the ABC sales had not been impacted yet by the outbreak. JB Hi-Fi recorded a 9% rise in its half-year profit this week, and a 4% rise in sales.

“From a store’s perspective we haven’t seen any impact,” he said. “Across the board the sales numbers certainly don’t show it.”

Murray said supply issues were a possibility but “we’ll start to get a better sense of suppliers in four to six weeks”.

“If you’re putting a TV together and you are missing a component, it’s probably not good for your production schedules,” he said. “LG makes the glass for the Apple watch. Many of those global brands have interrelationships.”

Earlier this month, the governor of the Reserve Bank, Philip Lowe, said the economic impact of the new coronavirus would be worse than Sars.

The RBA has also previously predicted that the drought and bushfire crisis would slow growth by 0.45 percentage points this year.

Emmett said that the main impact of the coronavirus would be on tourism and education.

“That is the most direct hit that Australia will get,” she said. “Our view is that that on its own, it will take 0.5 percentage points off growth in the first quarter.

“But that doesn’t just clear then. It is harder to quantify the broader effects – particularly the shutdown of broader parts of the Chinese economy and how that flows on to supply chains around the area. We are likely to see a hit to Korea in their growth and that will affect their demand for our goods and services.”

In addition, roughly 100,000 Chinese nationals with valid student visas are currently outside of Australia and cannot enter the country until the government’s travel ban is lifted.

Blythe said this would have a significant retail impact as well.

“Foreign visitors, particularly from China, spend a lot of money when they are in Australia when they are in the shops,” he said.

“What the data shows is that Chinese tourists spend more at the retail level than any other tourist, and Chinese students spend more at the shops than any other students.

“And consumer activity has been the weakest part of the Australian economy for a number of years now. These shocks to tourism and education are playing into what is already the weakest part of the story anyway. Retail is about 30% of consumer spending, which is about 56% of economic activity in Australia.

“It was only a few weeks ago we were worrying about Brexit and trade wars, and as soon as you get rid of one uncertainty, three more pop up,” he said.