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1. Oneil Cruz, SS

Hit Power SB Field Overall 55 60 45 55/50 65

Background: Part of the influx of Cuban talent added to the Dodgers’ farm system a few years back, Cruz, a massive man-child of an infielder, received a $950,000 bonus in 2015. Los Angeles eventually shipped the 6-foot-6, 175-pound Cuban import to Pittsburgh in exchange for reliever Tony Watson two years ago. Cruz made the rare leap from the Dominican Summer League straight up to Low Class A in 2017. And he handled himself well enough; in 105 games between both organizations’ Low Class A affiliates, he batted .237/.297/.350 with 11 doubles, two triples, and 10 homeruns. Unsurprisingly, Cruz found himself back in the South Atlantic League for a do-over – with much improved results. In 103 games with the West Virginia Power, the teenage slugger posted a .286/.343/.488 with 25 doubles, seven triples, and 14 homeruns. Cruz also swiped 11 bags in 16 attempts. His overall production last season, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a whopping 34% and 17%, respectively.

Analysis: Quite a steep price to pay for only 20.0 innings of relief from Tony Watson. Cruz established himself as one of the better teenage prospects in the minor leagues last season. And unlike a lot of the other promising 19-year-olds in the South Atlantic League, Cruz lacks any glaring red flags. The lefty-swinging infielder battered southpaws to the tune of .375/.436/.580; he shaved significant percentage points off of his strikeout rate; he shows an average eye at the plate; and – surprisingly – he looked remarkably well at shortstop last season, saving seven runs above the average. With respect to his production last season, consider the following:

Arenado, Story, and Yelich, the 2018 NL MVP, developed into one of the best hitters at the big league level; Mazara slugged 20 homeruns as a 23-year-old last season; Rodgers is widely recognized as a Top 50 prospect; and DeShields Jr. has one season in which he earned at least 2.0 fWAR. Let’s continue:

Player Age PA AVG OBP SLG BB% K% wRC+ Oneil Cruz 19 443 .286 .343 .488 7.7% 22.6% 134 Christian Yelich 19 521 .312 .388 .484 10.6% 19.6% 140 Nolan Arenado 19 402 .308 .338 .520 4.7% 12.9% 137 Trevor Story 19 548 .277 .367 .505 10.9% 22.1% 138 Brendan Rodgers 19 491 .281 .342 .480 7.1% 20.0% 135 Delino DeShields 19 523 .298 .401 .439 13.4% 20.7% 134 Nomar Mazara 19 461 .264 .358 .470 12.4% 21.5% 130

A few things to note:

Like Cruz, Mazara and DeShields popped up in Low Class A as 18- and 19-year-olds.

Sans Cruz and Rodgers, who have yet to make their big league debuts, here are the remaining players’ career wRC+ and DRC+ totals at the game’s pinnacle level: 130 and 109 (Yelich); 118 and 137 (Arenado); 110 and 120 (Story); 78 and 81 (DeShields Jr.); and 92 and 97 (Mazara).

Cruz is going to be the biggest breakout prospect in 2019. Bar none. He’s likely going to shift over to third base. After all, how many 6-foot-6 shortstops are running around? The bat, though, will play anywhere. He’s a game changer.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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2. Mitch Keller, RHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 65 70 45 55 65

Background: Christened the crown jewel of the Pirates’ minor league system several years running. Pittsburgh plucked the top prospect out of Xavier High School in the second round of the 2014 draft. Keller, the 64th overall player chosen that year, made stops at multiple levels for the third consecutive season. The Iowa native spent time with West Virginia and Bradenton (briefly) three years ago. He followed that up with 21 starts between Bradenton and Altoona in 2017, throwing a combined 116.0 innings (including a couple tune-up appearances in West Virginia) with 116 strikeouts and just 32 free passes. Last season the 6-foot-3, 195-pound right-hander made a career-high 25 starts, all but one coming with Altoona and Indianapolis, recording 135 whiffs against 55 free passes. Keller finished his fifth professional season with a 3.48 ERA. For his career, he’s averaging 9.2 strikeouts and just 2.8 walks per nine innings.

Analysis: Bred and developed to front the top of a rotation, the only thing the former second rounder is missing is an average third offering. Keller’s fastball sits comfortably in the mid-90s, ranging between 93- and -95-mph with a peak of 97. He’ll throw it to all four quadrants and isn’t afraid to challenge hitters inside or up in the zone. His curveball is a career-defining offering – much in the same way Sandy Koufax’s overhand deuce elevated him to mythical proportions. It shows hard, fall-off-the-table tumble and will lead to plenty of swings-and-misses at the big league level. Keller’s changeup, though, leaves a lot to be desired. Underdeveloped at this point in his career, it’s a straight 88-89-mph offering that lacks enough difference in velocity – or movement/deception – to be an oft-thrown pitch. With respect to his production in the Eastern League last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, only one other 22-year-old pitcher posted a 21% to 23% in the strikeout percentage with a walk percentage between 8% and 11% in the Eastern League (min. 75 IP): Scott Barnes, a former promising southpaw in the Giants and Indians organizations.

One more thing to point out:

There were 61 pitchers that eclipsed the 70-inning threshold in the Eastern League last season. Keller’s swinging strike percentage, 10.6%, tied for 29th best – hovering in the same neighborhood as Sean Brady, Logan Darnell, Luis Ysla, Ryan Bollinger, and Brady Dragmire.

Keller’s likely to see some big league time in 2019, perhaps 15 or so starts, but it’s imperative that he develops a workable third offering because that’ll be the difference between a #3/#4-type arm and a #1/#2-type ceiling.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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3. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B

Hit Power SB Field Overall 60 40/50 40 70 65

Background: An unconditional third base prospect cut out of a similar cloth as Oakland Athletics MVP contender Matt Chapman. Pittsburgh drafted the toolsy third baseman near the end of the first round four years ago. And the 6-foot-1, 210-pound minor leaguer’s production continued its upward trend in 2018. Hayes, a native Tomball, Texas, appeared in 117 games with the Altoona Curve, hitting .293/.375/.444 with 31 doubles, seven triples, and seven homeruns. He also swiped 12 bags in 17 total attempts. According to Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the Eastern League average mark by 29%, his best mark since his debut. For his career, Hayes is sporting a .285/.360/.395 triple-slash line with 65 doubles, 16 triples, and 15 homeruns in 348 games.

Analysis: With each passing season Hayes makes a strong argument as one of the game’s better third base prospects – even if he lacks the traditional in-game power typically required at the position, at least for now anyways. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, only three 21-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ mark between 125 and 135 with a walk rate between 10.5% and 12.5% in the Eastern League (min. 350 PA): Asdrubal Cabrera, Chance Sisco, and Clint Frazier. Cabrera’s been an above-average big league hitter during his lengthy career; Sisco has a shot at developing into a solid backstop; and Frazier’s long been listed as a Top 50 prospect.

Hayes shows an above-average hit tool that continues to progress toward its projected ceiling. He’s surprisingly quick for a 200-pound corner infielder; and his defense will range from above-average to elite. Last season, according to Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics, he was a +8 defender, which comes on the heels of his unbelievable +23 total in High Class two years ago. The power, though improving, is still lagging behind the other skills. He continues to elevate the ball more regularly, so there’s hope he taps into his 15- to 20-HR potential.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

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4. Cole Tucker, SS

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50 45 65 60 60

Background: The slick fielding shortstop’s production was at a career high heading into the season. Tucker, a former first round pick, slugged an aggregate .275/.358/.408 with 19 doubles, 11 triples, and six homeruns between stints in Bradenton and Altoona. But his numbers regressed in his full-season return to the Eastern League in 2018. Appearing in a career-high 133 games with the Curve, the 6-foot-3, 200-pound middle infielder batted a mediocre .259/.333/.356 with 21 doubles, seven triples, and five homeruns. He also swiped 35 bags in 47 attempts. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 7% below the league average mark. For his career, Tucker owns a .267/.337/.367 triple-slash line with 75 doubles, 26 triples, 17 homeruns, and 159 stolen bases in 444 games.

Analysis: Built like the shortstops of yesteryear. Tucker’s a speedy, defensive-minded prospect with enough pop to keep opposing pitchers honest. And his overall production last season was marred by a slow start to the year: he batted a lowly .195/.285/.263 over his first 35 games, but slugged a steady .281/.349/.388 over his remaining 98 contests (numbers more indicative of his true talent level). He still has the look of a 10- or 12-year starting shortstop.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

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5. Travis Swaggerty, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 55/60 45 60 50 55

Background: Just the second first round pick to come out of the University of South Alabama – and the earliest player chosen in school history – Swaggerty turned in a dynamic career for Manager Mark Calvi. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 180 pounds, the toolsy, quick-twitch center fielder burst onto the scene as a true freshman in 2016, batting .303/.431/.422 with 12 doubles, one triple, and four homeruns. He also swiped 20 bags (in 31 attempts as well). Collegiate Baseball awarded him a place on the Louisville Slugger Freshman All-American team as well. Swaggerty’s production took notable strides forward during his sophomore campaign for the Jaguars: in 55 contests, he slugged an impressive .361/.487/.567 with 11 doubles, one triple, and 10 homeruns to go along with 19 stolen bases in just 25 attempts. He was named as a Second Team All-American by the American Baseball Coaches Association/Rawlings. Swaggerty spent the ensuing summer playing – and dominating – for Team USA: he hit an impressive .328/.449/.406 with four extra-base knocks in 19 games. Last season Swaggerty continued to showcase his offensive prowess for South Alabama – though his numbers slipped a bit from his stellar breakout campaign. The Louisiana n: he offers up above-average speed, solid power potential, and tremendous plate discipline. Through his first 159 college games he owns a 122-to-134 strikeout-to-walk ratio. As for the actual production, consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2017, only five Sun Belt Conference hitters posted at least a .350/.450/.550 triple-slash line and a 15% walk rate (min. 200 PA): Swaggerty, who accomplished the feat as a sophomore, Caleb Adams, Jordan George, Ryan Huck, and Logan Pierce.

Obviously, outside of Swaggerty it’s an unimpressive collection of prospects. Adams was taken by the Angels in the 10th round in 2014. George was drafted in the 35th round by the Pirates a year later. Huck was a 27th in 2013 and Pierce was taken in the 13th round of the same year. So now let’s take a look at his production through his first 45 games in 2018. Consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2017, only one Sun Belt Conference hitter – Jordan George – posted at least a .290/.450/.560 triple-slash line with at least an 18% walk rate (min. 150 PA). Swaggerty, of course, is on pace to be the second one.

Again, obviously that’s not overly impressive. So let’s expand it a bit. Consider the following:

All of group sans Varsho, who was a second round pick, were taken in the opening round. Now that’s a more impressive collection of names. Swaggerty’s offensive foundation is enough to push him into starting material at the big league level. And while he hasn’t consistently played against top notch talent as other prospects in the SEC or PAC12, his work for Team USA helps allay some fears. In terms of big league ceiling, think .280/.330/.400 with a dozen or so homeruns and stolen bases.”