The Golden State Warriors’ 2018-19 season and quest for a three-peat ended on Thursday at the hands of the Toronto Raptors. They head into the offseason with a ton of uncertainty and an extremely expensive future if they keep the core together.

The Warriors have $80.2 million committed next season to five players. They also have $9.1 million in non-guaranteed money to Shaun Livingston ($2 million guaranteed) and Alfonzo McKinnie. That puts them $38.2 million below the projected luxury tax threshold, which equals the starting salary Kevin Durant alone is eligible for next season.

The Warriors are looking at a steep luxury tax bill if they want to keep the core together.

Here is a look at their cap sheet heading into the summer:

Payroll

Both Durant and Klay Thompson are expected to miss most of the 2019-20 season after suffering injuries late in the Finals. Durant is still expected to opt out of his 2019-20 player option worth $31.5 million as teams with maximum cap space will still pursue him. If he opts in, the Warriors can apply for a Disabled Player Exception worth the equivalent of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NT-MLE).

Extension candidates

Draymond Green did not qualify for the supermax this season but is still eligible to qualify for it next offseason. Right now he can sign an extension worth $99.7 million over four more seasons. He’ll probably turn that down as he is eligible to sign a four-year maximum deal worth $201.8 million. Not only that, but if he wins the Defensive Player of the Year award next season he qualifies for the supermax, currently projected at five years for $235.5 million.

Andre Iguodala, Damian Jones and Livingston are also eligible for extensions this summer, but whether they get one or not likely depends on how free agency goes.

Free Agents

The Warriors have 10 free agents on their roster. Most notable are Thompson and Durant. Thompson did not qualify for the supermax this year so he will be eligible to sign a five-year maximum contract worth $189.7 million. The most he can sign with another team is for $140.6 million over four years.

Durant is eligible for a five-year maximum contract worth $221.3 million. If he leaves, he is eligible to sign a four-year deal worth $164 million. In the event he opts into his $31.5 million player option, he could sign an extension that would add $169.3 million over four years. However, this process would net him about $20 million less than if he re-signed with Golden State for the maximum as a free agent this summer.

Kevon Looney continued to prove himself as an invaluable part of the Warriors’ rotation. He will be an unrestricted free agent this summer and the Warriors have his full bird rights, meaning the Warriors can sign him for up to the maximum. How much the Warriors want to pay him will depend on the market for him and the returns of Thompson and Durant.

DeMarcus Cousins is eligible to return on a starting salary of $6.4 million via his non-bird rights. If he returns, he could earn much more thanks to early bird rights.

The benefits of the 2016 cap spike have finally eroded

It is important to understand the context of the salary cap and the Warriors’ players’ salaries over the past five seasons when determining the future competitiveness of the core. In many ways, they were very lucky to be able to maintain their core without ever reaching the repeater tax. This is all thanks to the salary cap spike of 2016.

The Warriors extended Stephen Curry, Thompson and Green to contracts that turned out to be way below market value post-2016. Thompson and Green earned about half their current values throughout their contracts and Curry earned about a fourth of his market value up until 2017. Having such team-friendly salaries committed to the team’s core, combined with the 2016 cap spike, set them up to sign Durant.

Ever since becoming a Warrior, Durant has only earned a maximum salary in his first year and took less in the next two. Curry earned a maximum salary in the past two seasons only, which were the only seasons in the team’s five-year run in which the Warriors paid the luxury tax. It is reasonable to say that perhaps the Warriors wouldn’t have been as dominant as they have if it weren’t for the salary cap spike of 2016.

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The three major free agency outcomes for the Warriors

If the Warriors run the team back next season, it is going to cost them a fortune. Green will become a free agent next season. If he gets a maximum contract as well it would cost the Warriors over $200 million a year just for the team’s four All-Stars. They already are very limited with Curry and Durant earning maximum-level salaries, only having the taxpayer mid-level exception (T-MLE) as their highest means of improving the roster from here on out.

The Warriors will be repeater taxpayers next season. If they re-sign both Durant and Thompson to maximum starting salaries, Golden State will have a $240.5 million roster. This is before re-signing Kevon Looney, signing their 2019 pick, utilizing the T-MLE and filling out the rest of the roster with minimum contracts.

Bobby Marks of ESPN estimates the Warriors’ payroll and tax at $380 million after filling out the roster.

If only Thompson re-signs for the maximum and Durant leaves, the team would be approximately $12.5 million below the luxury tax with just seven players. This would allow them to utilize the NT-MLE projected at $9.3 million. It may be enough for them to pursue a player like Rudy Gay or Trevor Ariza to replace Durant. But they may get even more than the NT-MLE on the open market.

If both Thompson and Durant leave, they can generate about $20 million in cap space this summer. If they want to join the free agency arms race for a max player, they would need to trade Andre Iguodala for salary relief first.

If the Warriors lose both players, they are more likely to be a cap space team in 2020 when Curry would be their biggest salary commitment. As of now, they are projected to generate as much as $60 million in cap space next summer if they do not add any long-term commitments past the 2019-20 season.

In either of the three scenarios, the Warriors are either looking at an extremely expensive team that will regress over time or a roster with depleted star power that is still limited in terms of improving the roster. Even without the injury concerns, they are unlikely to return to dominance.