Fears of a post-EU referendum recession in the second half of the year are expected to be proved unfounded by figures released this week.

However, in the first official verdict on how the economy has performed since the Brexit vote, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is expected to say growth more than halved from 0.7% in the second quarter to 0.3% between July and September.

If the economists polled by Reuters are correct, it would be the slowest rate of growth since the third quarter of 2015, but would rule out the prospect of a technical recession – defined by two consecutive quarters of contraction – in the second half of the year.

The figure would also beat the latest forecasts from Bank of England policymakers, who were predicting at the time of the August inflation report that third quarter growth would come in at 0.1%.

Ruth Gregory, a UK economist at Capital Economics, said: “Encouragingly, the gamut of data has provided evidence that the slowdown has not been too stark and our best guess is that gross domestic product rose by 0.3% in the third quarter.”

The relative resilience of the UK economy since the Brexit vote on 23 June has largely been attributed to a willingness among consumers to keep spending, as well as strength in the services sector. However, the GDP data on Thursday is expected to show a weaker picture for the industrial and construction sectors.

The International Monetary Fund has predicted that Britain will be the fastest growing of the G7 leading industrial countries in 2016, with growth of 1.8%. The Washington-based fund accepted that its warning of a post-Brexit vote financial crash had proved too pessimistic.



However, fears are mounting that a relatively resilient performance from the economy in the immediate aftermath of the leave vote could be short lived, with 2017 expected to be more challenging.

The IMF is predicting that growth will slow to 1.1% next year and economists believe the finances of consumers and businesses will come under increased strain in the coming months.

The pound has fallen by 18% against the dollar since the EU referendum, and a weaker currency is expected to drive prices higher as it makes imports more expensive. Inflation rose to a near two-year high of 1% in September, above analysts’ expectations, from 0.6% in August, partly because of an increase in clothing and fuel costs.

With inflation expected to rise to 3% next year and wage growth running at 2.3%, according to the latest ONS data, economists are warning of a renewed squeeze on living standards as price rises start to outpace pay increases.

Howard Archer, the chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, said: “We expect the economy to suffer in 2017 as the uncertainties facing businesses and consumers are magnified by the triggering of article 50.

“Consumers are highly likely to face markedly diminishing purchasing power over the coming months, as inflation rises appreciably and earnings growth is limited by companies striving to limit their costs.”

