If your faith in London’s bus rapid transit plan hasn’t been shaken yet, this should do it.

Construction costs for the tunnel proposed to run beneath Richmond Row were woefully underestimated by consultant IBI Group and have skyrocketed by 60 per cent — to a maximum of $220 million from an original upper limit of $135 million.

In other words: nearly half the entire 24-kilometre project’s price tag, $560 million, would be chewed up by a 900-metre span. So city staff want it dropped, even if that means a level rail crossing on Richmond Row may gum up the service reliability and frequency promised by BRT.

“In light of that (increased) cost, we don’t believe the benefits are there to build (the tunnel) at this time,” said Kelly Scherr, city hall’s chief engineer.

Turfing the tunnel is one of several changes city staff will recommend on Monday to politicians, who are scheduled to finalize the BRT routes as city hall continues its pitch for federal and provincial money. Here are the details:

Lose the tunnel on the contentious north corridor, and instead go with dedicated BRT lanes on Richmond Street and no bypass (such as a tunnel or underpass) at the train tracks, which pose a big hurdle to the system.

Evaluate options “for long-term implementation” to get around the tracks. It would be an entirely separate project needing its own business case.

Consider making an underpass at the train tracks on Adelaide Street a “necessary element” of the BRT system. It could help personal vehicles flow through the entire core more easily.

Move one of the two BRT lines initially planned for King Street downtown onto Queens Avenue, creating a “couplet” that, while more complex for riders, eases the concerns of venues such as Budweiser Gardens and Covent Garden Market.

The King-Queens “couplet” dooms the protected bike lanes previously planned for Queens Avenue.

The project’s price tag drops to $440 million from $560 million. City hall’s stake is capped at $130 million, the rest needed from Queen’s Park and Ottawa.

So, in short: city council pressed pause on finalizing the routes in April to give more time for public consultation and to have staff consider options for the Richmond Street and King Street sections. Now, changes have been recommended to both.

The tunnel was at the core of both the BRT plan and the backlash against it. As The Free Press first reported Thursday, the ballooning cost estimate have led staff to recommend dropping it — and it’s hard to see council not following that advice.

But what does that create?

BRT is all about frequency and reliability of service and at peak times buses will come by every five minutes. If a train is blocking Richmond for 10 minutes, that bunches up a pair of buses that can’t be separated, gumming up the busiest corridor.

London Transit boss Kelly Paleczny downplayed that issue.

“It’s a concern but I think there are operational things we can do” to avoid train delays, she said. “There are things we can do.”

A BRT backlash erupted in recent months, led by downtown merchants who fear the project could kill their businesses. They organized under the banner Down Shift, led chiefly by Joe Kool’s owner Mike Smith, and pushed for major changes.

While financial concerns led to staff changing course on the tunnel, the decision comes amid vocal opposition. A Free Press/Mainstreet Research poll showed the tunnel had divided Londoners, with 35 per cent in favour, 29 per cent opposed and 36 per cent unsure.

The new price tag, $440 million, is exactly half the original rapid transit cost estimate of $880 million, when it included light rail on two of the four corridors. A year ago, council voted to drop the light rail and instead build a bus-only system with a tunnel running beneath downtown.

If the tunnel is dropped next week by council, it will then mark the second major downgrade of the project. That’s left its supporters wondering what’s next.

“I worry what whittling will remain for 2018 council hopefuls to hang their hats on,” Amanda Stratton, a member of city hall’s transportation advisory committee, wrote on Twitter.

Responded Londoner Jeremy Bird: “It looks like ‘no’ is winning 1 step at a time. Cancelling dedicated lanes will be an easy win for them.”

City council has approved a 24-kilometre system of high-frequency running on L- and 7-shaped corridors bisecting London, with the downtown intersection of King and Clarence streets as the hub. The only remaining question is the routes.

Politicians are set to finalize them in debates Monday and Tuesday.

pmaloney@postmedia.com

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Mainstreet - London May 2017 by The London Free Press on Scribd