MY COLUMN this week notes how Italian politics has returned to the atmosphere of the early 1990s, when the onslaught of corruption investigations known as Tangentopoli (Bribesville) destroyed the established political parties. A similar break-down is taking place, especially among the allies of the former conservative prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, following a succession of scandals. These involve not only regional members of his party but the leader himself. The story of a politician's fancy-dress party with guests wearing togas and masks of pig's heads sums for many the atmosphere of decadence (slide show is here). It is not just Mr Berlusconi who is in trouble. An ironic footnote to the tale of Italy's wasted opportunity to reform was the sight of one of the heroes of the Tangentopoli years, Antonio Di Pietro, one of Milan's best-known magistrates and now a left-wing politician, having to answer awkward question on television (clip here, in Italian) about the use of his own party’s funds and the source of money for his family’s apartments. Mr Di Pietro denies any wrongdoing but admits that the TV investigation aired by the crusading "Report" programme has probably killed off his long-troubled party, Italia dei valori (Italy of Values). He is interviewed here and background on the saga is here (both in Italian). In 1994 Mr Berlusconi rode in from the world of business to salvage the strays and orphans of the discredited ruling parties by creating a new centre-right party, Forza Italia (the video of the announcement is here, in Italian), scoring a famous victory. Mr Berlusconi has dominated Italian politics since then. But he was forced to step down as prime minister last year by the combined pressure of the bond markets and European partners who did not trust him to salvage the public finances. Italy’s debt as a share of GDP is the second highest in the euro zone after Greece; if Italy goes bust, it would almost certainly bring down the euro as well. The current technocratic prime minister, Mario Monti (pictured above), a professor of economics and a former European commissioner, has done a good job of restoring Italy’s credibility with a mixture of austerity and the beginnings of economic reforms. That is not too hard after Mr Berlusconi, and the prospect of being pushed into bankruptcy helped Mr Monti secure broad but fragile support from both left and right. Still with general elections expected in April, if not sooner, Mr Monti is finding it harder to get legislation through parliament, and Italy's political future is becoming more uncertain.

The result of regional elections in Sicily, if repeated across Italy in a general election, suggest a highly fragmented landscape and falling questionable for the parties. More than half the voters in Sicily stayed away from the voting booths – a strikingly high abstention rate for Italy. The centre-left candidate, Rosario Crocetta, a gay anti-mafia campaigner, won the gubernatorial race. But he lacks the votes in the regional assembly, where the highest number of votes went to the Five Star Movement of the comedian, Beppe Grillo, who denounces all parties and vows not to form alliances with any of them (though, oddly, he suggested Mr Di Pietro should become president of the republic). Mr Grillo’s protest movement says it wants to clean up Italian politics, which is no bad thing. But it wants to call a referendum to pull Italy out of the euro, which has alarmed all mainstream parties.

His rise increases the chances of political instability after the election, which in turn increases the chances that Professor Monti will be asked to stay on in some capacity. He has given notice that he is “available” if called upon. But what role will he play?

One option can almost certainly be ruled out: that Mr Monti would follow the example of the last technocratic prime minister, Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, the former governor of the Bank of Italy, who went on to serve as finance minister under Romano Prodi and Massimo D’Alema to prepare Italy’s entry into the euro.

Another implausible scenario is that Mr Monti would run for election. This would remove his main appeal – that he is a non-partisan prime minister who does not seek office for himself. It would also create a legal problem, in that he would have to resign his position as senator-for-life, granted by President Giorgio Napolitano so that the professor could take over as prime minister.

That leaves two options: Mr Monti could be asked once more to serve as prime minister, or he could be elevated to succeed Mr Napolitano as president of the republic. Which scenario plays out will depend on how the kaleidoscope of Italy’s political factions is re-arranged - which factions break up, which merge, and whether any of their manoeuvring makes any difference to voters.

People of Strife

Start with the centre-right. Mr Berlusconi’s party, now called People of Freedom (PdL), is fragmenting and has been punished in its own bastion of Sicily. Its factions are tearing at each other as they seek salvation, prompting some to nickname the PdL “Partito delle Liti”, or the “Party of Strife”.

Centrists like Angelino Alfano, the party secretary, and Fanco Frattini, a former foreign minister and candidate to become NATO’s secretary general, want to push the toxic Mr Berlusconi out of sight (but perhaps not his money) to give the PdL a chance of forming an alliance of moderates with Mr Casini and a motley collection of embryonic centrist and Catholic civil-society movements.

Some talk of eventually creating a new, broad-church "People’s Party" akin to France’s UMP and Germany’s CDU. Some would even start by taking the manifesto adoped by the European People’s Party, the alliance of Europe’s Christian Democratic parties, as the founding charter for an Italian branch. An overtly European identity, they hope, might help to erase the stain of the Berlusconi years.

Many would like the respected Mr Monti himself to lead such a grouping. If, as seems likely, he declines any such offer, they hope that by associating themselves closely with the “Monti agenda” some of the professor’s aura may rub off on them.

At the other extreme, the right wing of the party, including a group of vocal ultra-loyalist women known as “the Amazons”, are urging Mr Berlusconi to “return to the spirit of 1994”, take the helm and reclaim the old name of Forza Italia.

Mr Berlusconi has swung erratically between these points of view. On October 24th he announced that he would not seek re-election as prime minister, precisely to promote what the French call a rassemblement. At a private dinner he even asked Mr Monti to lead it. But three days later he swung the other way, denouncing Mr Monti, Germany and, above all, the judges who had just sentenced him to four years in jail for tax fraud (it is unlikely Mr Berlusconi will serve the sentence, as my colleague explains here). Having taken a “step back”, he now announced he would remain “in the playing field” and that he could bring down the government.

The word from Mr Berlusconi’s entourage is that he is, indeed, thinking of relaunching Forza Italia on a more anti-Monti and Eurosceptical line, perhaps linking up again with the old ally, the Northern League, which went into opposition when Mr Monti took power. Mr Berlusconi, it is said, might also create other parties with new faces to try to win back voters by offering a fresh variety of political outlets. Whether any of these can be dissociated from Mr Berlusconi is questionable; and if Mr Berlusconi does take a more populist approach, he may well cause the defection of centrists.

Centre or Left?

Strikingly, the PdL’s disillusioned voters are not fleeing to the mainstream opposition – be it the Union of Christian and Centre Democrats, small centrist faction led by Pier Ferdinando Casini, or the main centre-left party, the Democratic Party (PD), led by Pier Luigi Bersani.

Though less touched by scandal, the PD has not been immune from it. Its history as heir of the old communist party is a blessing and a curse: the PD has an established organisation and a cadre of activists, but many Italians of the centre-right still hesitate about voting for the old enemy. This may explain why Mr Berlusconi’s voters are either staying at home, or casting protest ballots for Mr Grillo.

The PD is also struggling with its rifts. The main fight of the primaries later this month pits the young and brash mayor of Florence, Matteo Renzi, against the party boss, Mr Bersani. This is both a generational fight in a country where seniority too often takes priority over talent, and an ideological one between the ex-communist Mr Bersani and Mr Renzi, a sort of Italian Tony Blair who appeals to centrist and even some conservative voters. Mr Renzi upsets the PD’s leadership with his talk of sending the old party nomenclature “to the car-breaker’s yard”.

But the likely winner is Mr Bersani, if only because the CGIL trade union federation backs him. Mr Bersani will have to decide whether to seek an alliance in the centre with Mr Casini, on the left, with the radical party known as Left Ecology Freedom (SEL), led by Nichi Vendola, a former member of the hardline Communist Refoundation party.

Though Mr Bersani has supported Mr Monti’s government, and helped keep the trade unions off the streets despite its unpopular measures, Mr Bersani seems to be tacking, initially at least, towards a pact with Mr Vendola. That said, in the campaign for Mr Crocetta’s successful race for the governorship in Sicily, the PD chose to dump the partnership with SEL in favour of the winning alliance with Mr Casini’s UDC.

Barring a surprise, the PD-SEL (or PD-UDC) alliance will win the largest number of votes. But given the strength of Mr Grillo, they might not be enough to form a stable government - even with the notoriously flawed electoral law known as Porcellum, or “Piggy”. This gives extra seats to the leading coalition in the chamber of deputies to ensure a strong majority, but the threshold for this “prize” has yet to be set after legal challenges. One suggestion is that it should be 40% of votes cast.

This might put a majority beyond reach for a PD-SEL alliance. If so, they may be forced to seek a coalition with Mr Casini or other centrist groups that may yet emerge. Their price for supporting the government will probably be the appointment of Mr Monti as prime minister. Unlike the current technocratic cabinet, a “Mont bis” government, as it is known, would have elected politicians serving as ministers

If the left-wing alliance does win a majority then there will be pressure, even within the PD, to appoint Mr Monti as president of the republic to replace the outgoing Mr Napolitano – if only as reassurance that at least some of the “Monti agenda” will be preserved. Already there are those on the left who want to roll back Mr Monti’s reform of the pension system. As a further act reassurance, PD sources say, the party might re-appoint some of Mr Monti’s ministers – above all his capable minister for European affairs, Enzo Moavero.

The presidency is a mostly honorific role but it can be pivotal in a crisis: Mr Napolitano was instrumental in ejecting Mr Berlusconi from office and, since then, in protecting Mr Monti from political backstabbing.

Europe votes too

The defenestration of Mr Berlusconi shows that Europe – or at least fellow European leaders – get a vote too. In his vituperative post-conviction press conference, Mr Berlusconi took issue with the infamous smirk between Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the former French president, when asked in 2011 whether they still had confidence in the-then Italian prime minister. For Mr Berlusconi, that was tantamount to “an attempted assassination on my credibility” (video here, in Italian).

Nevertheless Italian politics is accustomed to the idea of the vincolo esterno, the “external constraint” - the notion that Italy needs outsiders to set norms of political or economic behaviour that Italian politicians cannot observe on their own. In the years of the Cold War it was America and NATO; later on it was the EU.

The European dimension will be important to any future Italian government. It needs someone who will be able to maintain credibility in the EU, particularly in Germany. Italy may, for instance, need to negotiate a reform programme if it decides to seek a bailout in order to activate the European Central Bank’s promise to help bring down borrowing costs of troubled countries.

Mr Monti’s devotees argue that he brings something to Europe itself. Apart from his commitment to the European project, he has also made the dynamics of European summits more fluid, as he has played an active part in the ever-shifting alliances within the European Council – with Germany on the need for fiscal discipline, with Britain on the need for the deepening of the single market, with Spain on the need to fix the design flaws of the single currency.

“Monti is good for Italy,” says one insider, “But Monti is good for Europe as well.”