After consecutive seasons in which one loss was all that separated TCU from one of the four spots in the College Football Playoff, fans have the right to wonder if this is the year that the Horned Frogs get the chance to play for a national championship.

At least one national analyst thinks Frog fans are going to have to keep waiting.

ESPN insider K.C. Joyner recently wrote an article in which he broke down why TCU is not quite ready for playoff competition. The main reason that Joyner sees is that with the holes in TCU's offense following numerous graduations, it will be tough for the Frogs to score enough to compete in the high-powered Big 12.

"Last season, Big 12 teams averaged more games scoring 30 or more points (7.7) or allowing 30 or more points (6.9) than any other Power 5 conference. The takeaway from this is clear -- a high-powered offense is a must to compete in the Big 12," Joyner wrote. "Considering the losses on offense for TCU, that is not a good trend for the Horned Frogs."

Joyner breaks down the missing skill pieces that will hurt TCU's passing attack -- quarterback Trevone Boykin and receivers Josh Doctson and Kolby Listenbee are all off pursuing their NFL dreams.

But Joyner is also concerned by the new-found holes on the offensive line.

"According to ESPN Stats & Information, TCU's passers had a pressure rate of 19.2 percent. Pressure rate measures the percentage of dropbacks where the quarterback was sacked, under duress or hit. The Horned Frogs' total ranked fifth among Power 5 teams," Joyner obseverd. "That number looks to be due for a drop-off given that TCU has to replace four out of its five starters on the offensive line. The Horned Frogs do have some veterans in line to replace them and could end up with upperclassmen starting at every offensive line position, but given the wholesale changes and the uncertain amount of personnel depth here, TCU quarterbacks will not likely be as comfortable in the pocket at Boykin was last year."

Joyner expects this to cause issues in TCU's rushing attack as well but he also thinks that TCU won't do itself any favors in the flag department.

"Last season, TCU ranked tied for 57th among Power 5 teams in penalties (94), tied for 56th in penalties per game (7.2) and 63rd in penalty yards per game (70.9). This has been a trend for the Horned Frogs since joining the Big 12, as they rank 50th among Power 5 teams in penalties per game since 2012 (6.8)."

Joyner is also concerned by the rate at which TCU is recruiting, noting that over the last four recruiting classes TCU ranks seventh in the Big 12 in number of ESPN four-star commits with just 16.

Joyner pointed out, "For some perspective here, consider that TCU would place last in the SEC in the five- and four-star recruit total and tied for last in ESPN 300 recruits. They can't even keep up with Kentucky and Vanderbilt in signing talent and are nowhere near Alabama (86 five-/four-star, 69 ESPN 300) or LSU (74 five-/four-star, 62 ESPN 300)."

On Twitter: @AdamGrosbard