There is no respite. Left unabated, climate change will cause global shortages of food and water, and drive people into deeper poverty. This is the upshot of the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on the societal impacts of climate change, according to a leaked draft.

The IPCC’s report, which is due to be published next year, was leaked online by climate-change sceptic Andrew Montford on his blog Bishop Hill.

Whereas the IPCC’s last report, published in September, dealt with the science of climate change, this one will examine its impacts and how society can adapt. And it looks like it won’t be light reading.

In particular, it says that unless farming practices change, local temperature increases of more than about 1°C above pre-industrial values – a threshold many areas are close to – will cut yields of the major crops, such as wheat, rice and maize. This could happen as early as the 2030s.


A new poor

Another section reiterates that those hardest hit by climate change will be the poor and vulnerable. What’s more, it also states that: “Climate change will create new poor between now and 2100, in low-, medium-, and high-income countries, and jeopardize sustainable development.”

The worst effects are expected to be in cities and in rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia. By exacerbating poverty, climate change may also increase the risk of violent conflict.

Some effects are already being felt. For example, it is likely that warmer temperatures are already harming people’s health, either because of life-threatening summer heat or because of increased spread of disease.

While many countries and regions are beginning to adapt to climate change – for instance by improving sea defences – the world as a whole is not doing enough. The summary finds that the costs of adaptation are substantially greater than the funding currently set aside, both for now and the future.

This article appeared in print under the headline “IPPC draft leaked”