We have all studied the odds and various combinations of Sixers, Kings and Lakers outcomes endlessly. But, the moment that they open the first envelope, every coherent thought will leave our collective brains and we will be as confused as Dr. J. was at the 2014 lottery when the Sixers logo popped-out at #10.

So, as a public service (and to keep my own sanity) here is my pick by pick commentary.

Team Top-3 pick odds 1 Boston 64.3% 2 Phoenix 55.8% 3 L.A. Lakers 46.9% 4 Philadelphia 37.8% 5 Orlando 29.1% 6 Minnesota 18.3% 7 New York 18.3% 8 Sacramento 9.9% 9 Dallas 6.1% 10 New Orleans 4.0% 11 Charlotte 2.9% 12 Detroit 2.5% 13 Denver 2.2% 14 Miami 2.1%

#14 thru #9:

We are looking for chalk for the first six envelopes – positions #14 thru #9. There is a good chance that this will happen. In general, we do not want to see a late lottery team (or two) move up into the top 3 because it leaves only two (or one) spots available in the top 3.

#8 (or #9):

If it is chalk, then the first nerve-racking moment happens at envelope #8. We want to see New York or Minnesota come out of that envelope. That means that Sacramento is in the top 3. If one of the those last six teams slips into the top three, that same nerve-racking moment happens at envelope for #9 position.

If Sacramento does not move into top 3, then we next have to sweat seeing the Sixers name pop-up at #7 (less than 1%). If this happens, you can turn off the TV knowing that the Sixers have #7 & # 6. If Bryan Colangelo is reading this, don’t turn off the TV, because you will be surprised when the Sixers also get #6 from the Lakers.

This is where the major confusion could start. Seeing the Sixers name on that card could be very good or very bad. If it says "Sixers" large in the middle and "From LA Lakers" smaller across the bottom, this is excellent because it means that the Sixers are in the top 3 and the Lakers pick conveyed. If it only says Sixers, then big bummer, but it is also very likely (76%) that the Lakers will also convey next at #5. Pick #6 only is the worst outcome (BC take note).

This one is similar to #6. If it is the Lakers pick, great. If it is the Sixers pick, then the Lakers pick conveys next at #4 44% of the time. Of the 18 possible combination of Sixers and Lakers picks, Sixers getting #5 only has the highest probability (17.7%) of occurring. Ouch.

This is the next possible gut-wrenching moment. If the Sixers land here at #4 and there is no chance of getting the Lakers pick.

This is how we want to hit the commercial break:

Unbelievable - Both Sacramento and Sixers have moved into top 3 and Lakers fell to #5 or #6. Sixers are guaranteed no worse than #2 (along with #5 or #6). Amazing - Either Sixers or (preferably) Sacramento move into top 3 and Lakers fell to #4 or #5. Best case #1 and #4. Worst case #3 and #6. Edge of your Seat - Both the Sixers and Lakers have moved into top 3. Get the Pepto-Bismol out.

That is the NBA lottery for you in the era of (post-) Hinkie. Just make it to the commercial and let the chips fall where they may.