Stat whiz Nate Silver is currently projecting Ron Paul to win the Iowa caucuses. Mitt Romney trails by 24 points in Silver’s projection as of this posting.

Paul has curried favor with some on the left with his opposition to America’s empire building and financial chicanery, but he is first and foremost a conservative libertarian whose mostly consistent philosophy (his positions on abortion and immigration notwithstanding) is refreshing given the level of opportunism in the Republican race.

On the Republican side, the Iowa caucuses are driven by conservative activist voters and it is not a complete surprise to see Paul appealing to them.

It would be a big win for Paul, who might not welcome the added scrutiny of front-runner status. We have seen one not-Romney after another wilt under the heat of past embarrassments. In Paul’s case, we already know of some bigoted newsletters he’d rather stay buried.

Below, Silver explains the sudden benefit to Paul in his projections. — PZS