EU leaders are coming under growing pressure to support the bloc becoming climate neutral by 2050 at their summit in Brussels on Thursday.

In an effort to reach a consensus and bring along skeptical Central European countries, especially Poland, language in the draft conclusions, issued Wednesday and seen by POLITICO, waters down the commitment to climate neutrality while keeping the 2050 date.

The 2050 target was proposed by the Commission in late November — meaning by mid-century the EU would absorb as much carbon dioxide as it emits.

In early May, French President Emmanuel Macron seized the initiative and formed a group of eight countries committed to adopting the target as early as possible and ideally ahead of a major U.N. climate summit in September.

As the hours tick down to the summit, there was a mix of arm-twisting and promises being made in a last-ditch effort to get unanimity on 2050.

The idea has since gained traction. Germany shifted position in favor of the 2050 goal and there was a new round of endorsements, including by previously skeptical countries like Hungary and Bulgaria, on Monday. Now 22 countries look to be on board.

But all 28 are needed to endorse the goal at the leaders' summit, and six countries are holding out — Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Croatia, the Czech Republic and Romania (which holds the rotating presidency of the Council, meaning it's not supposed to take public stances on such issues).

The language used in the draft Council conclusions has shifted toward the 2050 deadline, although the latest version uses careful phrasing that falls short of binding the bloc to the target.

Earlier versions didn't have the date, but the draft issued on Wednesday said: "The European Council invites the Council and the Commission to advance work on the conditions, the incentives and the enabling framework to be put in place, in order to determine how to ensure a transition to a climate-neutral EU by 2050 that will preserve European competitiveness, be just and socially balanced, take account of Member States' national circumstances and respect their right to decide on their own energy mix."

The language on national circumstances and energy mix closely tracks demands made by Central European countries. Although the 2050 date is there, it doesn't commit the EU to carbon neutrality by that date. Still, Warsaw could still consider 2050 a real problem.

As the hours tick down to the summit, there was a mix of arm-twisting and promises being made in a last-ditch effort to get unanimity on 2050.

Getting all 28 EU leaders to endorse the target “has implications for funding,” said a senior EU official.

Countries with weaker economies — especially in the east — would like their agreement on 2050 to be part of a broader package, including financial and technological support for the bloc's green shift.

There is “a need to acknowledge it would cost money,” said one senior EU diplomat, even as “more and more countries are open” to committing to climate neutrality. The diplomat added that certain “conditions” would first need to be met, pointing to possible help from the European Investment Bank, in addition to cohesion funding, to aid the transition.

Money talks

The climate goal has become entangled in a broader effort that involves budgets and setting the bloc's long-term goals — a bid to make the EU more relevant to voters at a time of rising populism. However, discussions on the bloc’s next seven-year budget are stalled — so it's harder to make cash promises in return for a shift in position on 2050.

According to Wednesday's draft summit conclusions, EU leaders will hold a summit on the budget in October, "aiming for an agreement before the end of the year."

National considerations also come into play.

The EU also wants to shine at September's U.N. climate summit — and showing up in New York with an ambitious 2050 commitment would fit the bill.

As the biggest holdout, there is pressure on Poland to change position. But the country holds parliamentary elections in October, and Warsaw’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party is wary of committing to an ambitious climate goal that would be costly for the country's coal-fired economy.

Warsaw's resistance is convenient for many countries that have signed up for the 2050 goal, but privately express fears about its costs and scale.

“That is always [Poland's] role anyway,” an Eastern European official said of Poland's frequent function as a skeptic of many more ambitious Commission proposals.

But there is also pressure on Western European countries to move faster. Last month's European election saw big gains for the Greens, sending a message to other parties about the political costs of not being seen as active enough on tackling climate change.

The EU also wants to shine at September's U.N. climate summit — and showing up in New York with an ambitious 2050 commitment would fit the bill.

But if leaders fail to strike a deal on 2050 on Thursday, there's little chance of the EU managing to push through the policy before September.

"The question [of] what to do with the still-reluctant member states grows in importance," said an EU diplomat from a Western European country. "At the same time, there’s a fundamental difference between looking at how to accommodate legitimate concerns and giving way to mere pork-barreling. The latter is obviously to be avoided.”

Lili Bayer and Jacopo Barigazzi contributed reporting.

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