Price for Johnny Cueto just got higher

The Reds knew signing Johnny Cueto would be difficult. In the wake of the Max Scherzer deal with the Washington Nationals, it's bordering on impossible.

Scherzer has agreed to a seven-year, $210 million deal. Some of the reported details: $50 million signing bonus; Scherzer will be paid $15 million a year over the next 14 years; half the money is deferred.

No matter how you break it down, the Reds seem to be incapable of handling that kind of deal. Full disclosure here: I thought they'd never be able to swing the six-year, $105 million deal that they gave Homer Bailey. They did, of course.

But Scherzer's deal is for twice as much money for one more year. Scherzer is a better pitcher than Bailey, but he's not twice as good.

And Cueto's numbers over the last four years have been better than Scherzer's. Scherzer's gone 70-24 with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.188 WHIP over the last four years. Cueto's gone 53-25 with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.066 WHIP over the last four years.

Scherzer's ERA+ is 117 over that span; Cueto's is 155.

Scherzer's been more durable. He's thrown 817 innings the last four years; Cueto's thrown 677. Cueto is also a year younger.

But, if you're Cueto's agent, you can make a strong case that he deserves every dollar Scherzer got.

Cueto and the Reds have had preliminary discussions on an extension. But nothing substantial. Cueto's given the Reds until Opening Day to negotiate. Cueto likes playing for the Reds. Bryan Price had a lot to do with his development. So Cueto may be willing to take less. But it's doubtful that any hometown discount is going to put him anywhere close to within the Reds' budget.

That said, I think the Reds go into the season with Cueto as the No. 1 starter. That gives them the best chance to win. If they struggle early, I could see a trade before the deadline.

The whole Cueto thing points up a flaw with the baseball business model (at least for small-market teams): The Reds find Cueto, spend the money to develop him, help turn him into a star and then watch him move out of their price range.