The 9:01: Grizzlies draft night was something we’ve seen before

Chris Herrington | Memphis Commercial Appeal

Show Caption Hide Caption Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace reacts to the draft Grizzlies general manager Chris Wallace explains why the team entered the draft.

Good morning in Memphis, where the 9:01 is about to take a little time off, but first …

In 2005, Monta Ellis, a 6’3” guard from down the road in Jackson, Mississippi, was ranked (via scouting service Rivals) as the third best basketball player in his high school class. Memphis-born Lou Williams, another guard who had moved to Georgia, was rated the 7th best player in his class. Despite these pedigrees, both fell into the second round of the NBA draft.

Through 12 years and counting, Ellis has averaged nearly 18 points a game in his NBA career. Williams has averaged 13 points a game over the same span, with no signs of slowing down, including an NBA Sixth Man of the Year Award in 2015. They were under-drafted by NBA scouts. In their case, high school pedigree proved prophecy.

Grizzlies lead executive Chris Wallace began his career in the amateur scouting world, publishing the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook and working with high school scouting pioneer Sonny Vaccaro. The predictive value of the high school ranking has been an oft-stated article of faith for Wallace, and you can see it play out in Grizzlies drafts during Wallace’s tenure.

O.J. Mayo, a former high school phenom, is an obvious example. But as a #3 overall draft pick, his projection was an NBA consensus. More illustrative are some Top 15 ranked high school prospects who underperformed in college or in the eyes of NBA scouts broadly before finding a landing spot in Memphis: Xavier Henry (#8 in 2009), Josh Selby (#1 in 2010), Tony Wroten (#14 in 2011), Andrew Harrison (#5 in 2013) and now Ivan Rabb (#7 in 2015), whom the Grizzlies acquired as the #35 pick in last night’s NBA draft.

If you pour over high school basketball rankings from the past 15 years, you’ll see that the NBA success rate for top prep prospects is pretty high, but that’s mainly because of players who hold their rankings as they progress, as they’re challenged by college basketball and examined by pro scouts. Those that underperform in college and/or slip down draft boards don’t tend to succeed at any higher (or, perhaps, any lower) rate than players who weren’t so lauded as schoolboys. As in so much of the rest of life, what you did in high school doesn’t matter much once you leave high school.

Players such as Ellis and Williams, for whom high school rankings were a better indicator than pro scout consensus (neither played in college) are exceptions. The Grizzlies will hope Rabb will be as well.

The 6’10” forward from the University of California was projected to be a future lottery pick as he left the high school stage, but his production in two years in the Pac-10 was merely good, and many scouts had a hard time figuring out what his calling card was going to be at the NBA level. It’s becoming a cold world in the NBA for big men who neither stretch the floor as a shooter or protect the rim as a defender. Rabb doesn’t project to do the former, and given his slight frame, there’s doubt on the latter. This recent exchange on overrated draft prospects from a couple of ESPN writers is representative of the doubts Rabb generated in college:

Pelton: I'd go with Cal's Ivan Rabb. After deciding to return for 2016-17, his sophomore season, Rabb took a step backward last season and wasn't impressive from either a statistical or a scouting perspective. He doesn't seem to have an elite statistical skill -- he doesn't project in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound post players in any key stat -- and looks to me more like a second-round pick than a late first-rounder. Who would you nominate? Ford: Rabb is my guy as well. Just not sure what he does in the NBA. He's obviously a good college player and was an elite high school player. But his game is ill-suited for the NBA. The only thing I would add is that Rabb has been dropping on team boards as well. I think it's likely he's a second-rounder at this point.

The Grizzlies move last night -- the first of two into the second round -- had a familiar arc: Trading a future asset to acquire a once highly rated prospect who had become not so highly rated, while touting how they were once highly rated. If the trajectory holds, not much will come of it. But, this time, hopefully the Grizzlies manage to flip the script.

Geoff Calkins on last night’s Grizzlies draft. Pick-by-pick grades and analysis.

A Second Opinion (and Another):

Cavaliers tried to land pick to get Cal forward Ivan Rabb, but deal fell through and he lands with Memphis with 35th pick, source said. — Marc J. Spears (@MarcJSpearsESPN) June 23, 2017

Ivan Rabb over Jordan Bell? Smh. — Seth Davis (@SethDavisHoops) June 23, 2017

The 9:01 Friday Lunch: Of the top tier of Memphis barbecue palaces, people talk about Rendezvous and Central and Bar-B-Q Shop. Interstate and Cozy Corner and the Commissary. Payne's and Corky's. A stalwart that doesn't seem to get as much attention in recent years is Leonard's Pit Barbecue, which might be Memphis' oldest operating barbecue restaurant.

Leonard's, founded as a South Memphis sandwich stand by Leonard Heuberger in 1922, is now located at 5465 Fox Plaza Drive, near where Mendenhall and Mr. Moriah connect. If it's not quite as high profile as some of its competitors these days, Memphis still knows, as witnessed by the bustling lunch crowd when I visited yesterday.

In 2009, I co-edited the Memphis Flyer's annual barbecue issue, where we blind-judged ribs from many of Memphis' most highly regarded barbecue restaurants. Leonard's finished second (behind Bar-B-Q Shop). Among our findings then:

The bold, heavy rub on Leonard's ribs split our judges on the first tasting. "The rub is too thick and salty. It overwhelms the meat but has a nice hint of heat," one judge wrote. Another agreed: "Too much spice — it overpowers the flavor of everything else." Others were knocked out by the intensity: "Pops with taste," one judge gushed. "The dry rub is magnificently strong. Fantastic. Wanted to eat all of it off the bone." Another wrote, "Wonderful, wonderful spice. Coriander? Mustard? Complex, smoky flavors, but the flavor of the meat a little covered up." In the finals, Leonard's seemed to find the right balance of spice and meat: "Spicy, but doesn't overwhelm the smoke, which doesn't overwhelm the meat," one judge proclaimed. "Piquant, tangy with a nice blend of sweet and smoky and an appealing aftertaste," wrote another judge. "Very spicy and tasty," another agreed. "Just the right mix of spice, heat, and saltiness, and not too sweet. Yummy." Still, this is one rib that is not for those who can't take intense flavors: "I worked this bone as long as I could, but you'll need a beverage with it."

I'm a fan of bold rubs, then and now, but regret to say I hadn't eaten Leonard's since then. When a few readers recommended it as a 9:01 Friday Lunch visit, I decided I was overdue.

Leonard's is the only Memphis barbecue restaurant I know of (I imagine there are others) that has a lunch buffet. For $14 you can sample ribs wet and dry (cut to three or four bones), shoulder and smoked chicken, along with fried catfish, beans, standard Southern sides and more. You should probably order from the menu if you want a serious barbecue experience, but if I can get (good) ribs and (good) catfish on the same plate, I have a hard time saying no. The Leonard's rub (I went dry, per usual) was as pleasing as I'd remembered.

Leonard's is also worth a visit for the colorful decor. A classic Memphis place that now flies a little under the radar.

Happening in Memphis This Weekend: Today, the Carpenter Art Garden celebrates its fifth year. ... Local acoustic duo Me & Leah have a debut-album-release show at Amurica. ... "The Wizard of Oz" screens at the Orpheum.

On Saturday, the Stax Music Academy performs at the Levitt Shell. ... A national comedy tour hits the Orpheum.

Column Hiatus: The 9:01 will go dark for the next week and a half as I take some vacation time. Look for a return on July 6.

The Fadeout: Speaking of Me & Leah, here’s a song from the duo’s debut.

Reach Chris Herrington at chris.herrington@commercialappeal.com or on Twitter at @chrisherrington and @herringtonNBA.