Anxiety and fear is pervading the $2.5bn sector, which is calling on the government to step in before ‘irreparable damage’ is caused

The Australian arts industry operates on a knife-edge at the best of times – but in recent years, the pressure has reached boiling point: local creators have faced millions in funding cuts, with draconian laws decimating once thriving scenes.

Now, with the coronavirus pandemic causing the Australian government to recommend any gathering of more than 500 people be cancelled, the industry is bracing for the worst, with insiders describing “a growing sense of doom” about what’s to come – and politicians and industry bodies calling for an “urgent” plan to help.

From Dark Mofo to Download: what’s happened already

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Internationally, the threat of coronavirus has led to the cancellation of major tours and festivals including Coachella and Miami Ultra, and the stock of global tour promoter Live Nation plummeting $1.8m in a single day. But it was the nixing of SxSW that sent shockwaves through the Australian music industry.

Forty-three Australian artists had been selected from a pool of 7,000 to showcase at Austin, Texas: a rare opportunity to get in front of international managers, bookers and publishers, which can result in major global deals. Industry body Sounds Australia quickly pulled together a showcase livestream for 18 artists, but the cancellation was a substantial hit, and devastating for many.

And there have been big gig losses in Australia too: Miley Cyrus’s cancelled trip to Australia spelled the end for a major bushfire relief concert; Robbie Williams is no longer playing tonight in Melbourne; and My Chemical Romance’s decision not to tour saw major emo-punk festival Download cancel in Sydney and Melbourne, just seven days out from the event.

All this before the government’s announcement on public gatherings – and there is no way to predict how long it will last.

That was one bet that Mona founder and prolific gambler David Walsh didn’t want to take: he called off Hobart’s Dark Mofo festival on Wednesday, despite the fact that it was scheduled three months away, in June.

“A festival-wide last-minute cancellation would run into the millions, and likely end the event permanently,” said festival director Leigh Carmichael.

“I know [this] will murder an already massacred tourism, but I feel like I have no choice,” said Walsh.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest ‘A last-minute cancellation would ... likely end the event permanently,” said Dark Mofo director Leigh Carmichael. Photograph: Remi Chauvin/Mona

Late on Friday, participants of Melbourne International Comedy Festival (MICF) were told the full festival was being cancelled. With more than 600 Australian and international acts, and more than 7,000 performances programmed, the three-week event was scheduled to begin on 25 March.

“We’re devastated by the news we have to share,” organisers told the participants, before announcing the cancellation. “Our primary concern is the health and welfare of our artists and participants, staff and audiences.”

The decision, while sad, was considered the right one by many artists involved: while some MICF events are run by the festival, who carry the risk, the majority are self-produced – and independent acts had been struggling to decide whether or not to go ahead.

“The way it’s structured makes it hard for small artists to make the call to cancel without anything official happening,” one told the Guardian, “but people [were] feeling awful about trying to promote in this environment – not just because of low turnout, but because it [felt] reckless.”

As of Friday, the festival had not confirmed whether it would be refunding registration costs, which run from $375-$685, or helping artists recoup other costs such as venue hire and staffing.

Zoë Coombs Marr (@zoecoombsmarr) The news that MICF is cancelled is sad, also the right call, but mainly very confusing for my performance anxiety which, at the same time each year, prays MICF will be cancelled. (ps. Sorry! I didn’t mean it! I take it back! The Secret works oh no!)

‘The sector could be brought to the brink’

Friday’s announcement recommending the cancellation of mass gatherings presents a major blow to Australia’s live performing arts industry, which contributes more than $2.5bn to the economy, according to industry bodies – but relies on getting people through the door.

Evelyn Richardson, the chief executive of industry body Live Performance Australia, issued a statement on Friday calling for the government to help.

“[With a forced] cancellation of live performance events, they need to … urgently develop a targeted relief package to keep businesses operating,” she said. “There are companies that will not have the balance sheet strength to withstand the combined impacts of box office failure and contract obligations, and some larger event cancellations may cause irreparable damage.”

The Australian Major Performing Arts Group echoed the sentiments in their own Friday statement, with shadow minister for the arts, Tony Burke, weighing in with his: “Australia’s arts sector was already fragile before the coronavirus crisis due to the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Government’s cuts and neglect. Now with live performance ticket sales dropping and the list of cancelled events growing rapidly, the sector could be brought to the brink over coming months.”

When “no show means no income” in the performance industry, Burke said, “the government needs a plan for the arts sector and we need to hear what it is – urgently”.

Arts orgs live in fear of tomorrow

At the time of publishing, neither Bluesfest (April), Vivid Sydney (May) or Splendour in the Grass (July) had announced cancellations – although if the government’s advice on mass gatherings remains in place, and is heeded, they will not be going ahead.

Doubt has been thrown on festivals with events that attract smaller crowds, too.

It’s the smaller companies and independent artists that are going to suffer the most Nicole Beyer

Announcing the program of Sydney writers’ festival on Thursday night, director Michaela McGuire added a caveat to the list of names: “There are inevitable lineup changes every year – but we are expecting more than most.”

By Friday, the festival had suspended ticket sales. “We are now carefully working through next steps and we’ll be in touch on Monday 16 March with a more detailed response,” CEO Chrissy Sharp said in a statement.

Theatre insiders are feeling anxious. Executive director of Theatre Network Australia, Nicole Beyer, told the Guardian, “If a project is cancelled, the independent artist’s wage is just completely gone. They’re on contract to contract. There’s no fallback. They can’t use leave.

“It’s the smaller companies and independent artists that are going to suffer the most,” she continued. “They don’t have reserves. They don’t have a way to get through bad times.”

Beyer supports the calls for federal stimulus. “We hope that the government will do the right thing by this industry.”

And the screen industry is facing its own risks. Production of Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis biopic on the Gold Coast was halted this week after Tom Hanks was diagnosed with the virus; and according to reports, Marvel movie Shang-Chi – currently filming at Fox Studios in Sydney with a team of approximately 900 people – has suspended filming for two weeks, as director Destin Daniel Cretton awaits his test results.

Hollywood blockbusters operate in their own economy, but very few Australian arts bodies can take this kind of financial hit. In November it was said that many arts organisations – particularly smaller, independent groups – were already at “crisis point”. Then they spent the summer raising funds for the bushfire emergency. Now, it’s the pandemic. Do they have anything left to give?