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Democratic struggles with Latinos

Despite Trump’s harshly anti-immigrant rhetoric, Democrats are facing challenges energizing Latino voters. NBC News reports that Democrats are struggling in heavily Hispanic districts and facing low levels of voter engagement.

Why this matters. Polling indicates Latino voters favor Democrats by a three to one margin. If Latino turnout matched non-Latino turnout, it would be a huge advantage for Democrats. However, Latinos have long lagged other ethnic groups in turnout. In the 2014 midterms, only 27% of Latinos voted compared to 45% of white voters.

What races could this make a difference in? A huge swathe of races, particularly concentrated in the south-west and in Florida.

New generation of Democrats see few congressional opportunities

For over a decade, congressional Democrats have been led by the trio of Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer and James Clyburn, all of whom are in their late 70s. Other congressional Democrats are getting antsy. Buzzfeed reports on the frustration of younger Democratic members of Congress at their perceived lack of opportunity.

So is this bad for Democrats? The lack of opportunities has meant a numbers of top Democrats in the House of Representatives have left Congress for other opportunities, resulting in a far thinner bench for the party in the future.

Does this change if they win? The difference in being a ranking member on a committee or subcommittee is vast. Actually being able to wield a gavel will make a big difference but congressional committees still matter less and less in this centralized age and few subcommittees carry significant clout in the 21st century.

Kyrsten Sinema is not a witch but …

Since it’s a day that ends in the letter Y, there is another negative story about Kyrsten Sinema’s past. Sinema, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Arizona, started her career in politics as a leftwing organizer before transmuting herself into a centrist member of Congress. New emails just published by the Washington Examiner reveal that she once invited a coven of “feminist witches” called Pagan Cluster to an anti-war protest.

Does this matter? Not really. There is no polling data to suggest that many Arizona voters are single-issue witchcraft voters. However, it does reinforce a narrative that Sinema holds far-left views and has either changed them or tried to conceal them for political reasons.

Poll of the day

One of the best pickup opportunities in the House for Republicans in the country is a district in Minnesota’s Iron Range. In a new poll from the New York Times and Siena College, Republican Pete Stauber has a 15% lead over the Democrat Joe Radinovich. The district is held by retiring Democrat Rick Nolan and is ancestrally Democratic but this poll is a huge shift from a previous poll of the district in September.

So this means the ‘blue wave’ isn’t happening? Trump won this rust belt district by 15% in the 2016 election and there are relatively few districts like it in the country where Trump won and there is no Democratic incumbent.

Ad of the day

In Minnesota’s first district, which is another top pickup opportunity for Republicans, the NRCC has a new ad out attacking Democrat Dan Feehan for supporting Colin Kaepernick’s decision to take a knee during the national anthem before NFL games. Feehan is an Iraq veteran who served two combat tours.

Is this effective? Can’t hurt. Kaepernick doesn’t poll well nationally, let alone in predominantly white congressional district in southern Minnesota. Trump won the district by almost 15% in 2016 after Obama narrowly won it in 2012.