Publicly, studio executives tend to be a rosy bunch, predicting that each year’s crop of movies will be better than that which preceded it. But behind closed doors, few in the business were expecting much from 2016.

When the final numbers are tallied, the global box office will probably fall short of last year’s record-breaking $38.9 billion. Most observers expect ticket sales to fall roughly 2% to just over $38 billion. That decline is reason for some alarm, particularly as the shortfall is largely attributable to a slowdown in China. After years of explosive growth, in which returns were expanding at a 40% clip annually, revenue in China was essentially flat in 2016 — a disappointment for the world’s second-largest film market, which had been expected to surpass the U.S. in terms of revenue in a matter of months.

“As China goes, so goes the international marketplace,” notes Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at ComScore.

There are worries that Donald Trump’s presidency could have a further chilling effect. Trump has been a proponent of stricter tariffs on foreign goods and has often cast China as an adversary.

“Who knows what our trade policies will be like in a year?” Dergarabedian asks.

If Trump is true to his word, there could be some type of retaliation from China at a time when Hollywood is increasingly reliant on Chinese financing and viewership. In particular, there are concerns about a move toward tighter restrictions on the number of U.S. films that are allowed to screen in the country.

But many studio executives remain bullish on the long-term prospects of Sino-Tinseltown relations.

“In China, there has been a slowdown off a base of massive growth, but it’s still the biggest of the markets where we or any studio does business, and it will still be on pace to displace the U.S. in box office, though maybe not as quickly as people thought,” says Dave Hollis, Disney’s global distribution chief.

China aside, there is a sense that 2016 could have been worse. “Deadpool” and “Zootopia” were blockbusters that few saw coming. And while “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” and “Finding Dory” weren’t hits on the level of 2015 smashes such as “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” and “Jurassic World,” they resonated with global audiences.

“If you look at the slate last year, it played pretty well,” says Eric Handler, an analyst with MKM Partners. “The numbers would suggest there might be a modest decline in attendance, but the movie business is still holding in quite well.”

Across the globe, the story was one of slowdowns, stall-outs, and surges. Spain began to rebound after tough economic times, with ticket sales rising 5%, and France had its second-best performance in 50 years. Yet other major markets had problems: Revenue fell by double digits in Germany, and growth stalled in South Korea.

In some cases, the declines can be chalked up to weaker local product. In others, the studio blockbusters didn’t excite as they had in previous years. (Studios point to parts of Asia and Latin America as regions in which Hollywood products are still finding a warm reception.) There were also currency headaches; a strong U.S. dollar meant that Europe and Russia failed to contribute as much to the returns of major blockbusters as they once did.

Still, there is optimism, fueled by a look at the slate for 2017, which will see sequels to “Star Wars,” “Transformers,” “Guardians of the Galaxy,” “Pirates of the Caribbean,” “The Fast and the Furious,” “Despicable Me,” “Spider-Man,” and “Cars.” This Murderers’ Row has left analysts like Dergarabedian reaching for the perfect metaphor to encapsulate the moneymaking on the horizon.

“I call it the 100-year flood of movies,” he says.

Domestic Top 100 of 2016 RANK TITLE/DISTRIB DOMESTIC B.O. 1. Finding Dory/Disney $486,295,561 2. Rogue One … */Disney $408,235,850 3. Captain America: Civil War/Disney $408,084,349 4. The Secret Life of Pets/U $368,384,330 5. The Jungle Book/Disney $364,001,123 6. Deadpool/Fox $363,070,709 7. Zootopia/Disney $341,268,248 8. Batman v Superman … /WB $330,360,194 9. Suicide Squad/WB $325,100,054 10. Star Wars: The Force …†/Disney $284,694,956 11. Doctor Strange*/Disney $229,876,337 12. Fantastic Beasts …*/WB $222,675,573 13. Moana*/Disney $206,477,478 14. The Revenant†/Fox $182,765,375 15. Jason Bourne/U $162,434,410 16. Star Trek Beyond/Par $158,848,340 17. X-Men: Apocalypse/Fox $155,442,489 18. Sing*/U $152,853,995 19. Trolls*/Fox $150,130,292 20. Kung Fu Panda 3/Fox $143,528,619 21. Ghostbusters/Sony $128,344,089 22. Central Intelligence/WB $127,440,871 23. The Legend of Tarzan/WB $126,643,061 24. Sully*/WB $124,976,335 25. Bad Moms/STX $113,257,297 26. The Angry Birds Movie/Sony $107,506,776 27. Independence Day: Resurgence/Fox $103,144,286 28. The Conjuring 2/WB $102,470,008 29. Sausage Party/Sony $97,661,826 30. The Magnificent Seven/Sony $93,420,253 31. Arrival*/Par $91,676,099 32. Ride Along 2/U $91,221,830 33. Don’t Breathe/Sony $89,208,468 34. Miss Peregrine’s Home … */Fox $86,945,137 35. The Accountant/WB/STX $85,856,696 36. Daddy’s Home†/Par $85,672,859 37. Teenage Mutant … Shadows/Par $82,051,601 38. The Purge: Election Year/U $79,213,375 39. Alice … Looking Glass/Disney $77,041,381 40. Pete’s Dragon/Disney $76,233,151 41. The Girl on the Train/U $75,395,035 42. Tyler Perry’s Boo! … /Lionsgate $73,206,343 43. Storks/WB $72,414,850 44. 10 Cloverfield Lane/Par $72,082,998 45. Lights Out/WB $67,268,835 46. Divergent … Allegiant/Lionsgate $66,184,051 47. Now You See Me 2/Lionsgate $65,075,540 48. Hacksaw Ridge*/Lionsgate $64,463,214 49. Ice Age: Collision Course/Fox $64,063,008 50. The Boss/U $63,285,885 51. London Has Fallen/Focus $62,524,260 52. Miracles From Heaven/Sony $61,693,523 53. Deepwater Horizon/Lionsgate $61,433,527 54. 10 Cloverfield Lane/Par $59,689,605 55. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back/Par $58,546,937 56. Me Before You/WB $56,245,075 57. The BFG/Disney $55,483,770 58. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising/U $55,455,765 59. Passengers*/Sony $55,380,209 60. The Shallows/Sony $55,121,623 61. Barbershop: The Next Cut/WB $54,030,051 62. Office Christmas Party*/Par $52,853,219 63. Deepwater Horizon/Lionsgate $49,815,176 64. The Huntsman: Winter’s War/U $48,390,190 65. Kubo and the Two Strings/Focus $48,023,088 66. Warcraft/U $47,365,290 67. How to Be Single/WB $46,843,513 68. The Big Short†/Par $46,264,692 69. Mike and Dave Need … Dates/Fox $46,009,673 70. War Dogs/WB $43,034,523 71. Almost Christmas/U $41,964,925 72. Money Monster/Sony $41,008,532 73. The Hateful Eight†/Weinstein $40,778,206 74. Allied*/Par $39,541,921 75. Nerve/Lionsgate $38,583,626 76. Sisters†/U $37,921,265 77. Risen/Sony $36,874,745 78. Assassin’s Creed*/Fox $36,415,167 79. The Nice Guys/WB $36,261,763 80. The Boy/STX $35,819,556 81. Dirty Grandpa/Lionsgate $35,593,113 82. Ouija: Origin of Evil/U $35,144,505 83. The 5th Wave/Sony $34,912,982 84. Inferno*/Sony $34,221,651 85. Mother’s Day/Open Road $32,492,859 86. Gods of Egypt/Lionsgate $31,153,464 87. La La Land*/Lionsgate $30,980,271 88. Why Him?*/Fox $30,633,916 89. Hail, Caesar!/U $30,498,085 90. Alvin and the … Road Chip†/Fox $30,311,560 91. When the Bough Breaks/Sony $29,740,655 92. Zoolander 2/Par $28,848,693 93. Joy†/Fox $28,141,138 94. The Finest Hours/Disney $27,569,558 95. Florence Foster Jenkins/Par $27,383,770 96. Manchester by the Sea*/Roadside $27,053,638 97. Hell or High Water/Lionsgate $27,007,844 98. The Forest/Focus $26,594,261 99. Ben-Hur/Par $26,410,477 100. Fences*/Par $26,330,971 *Still in release †2015 release; B.O. for 2016 only Source: comScore