Welcome back to Fire Represents Your Life for a new season of Survivor!

It’s here!! Today is the start of Survivor season 37: David vs. Goliath and boy do we have a lot to talk about. The offseason didn’t really provide us with a whole lot to work with barring the sporadic TMZ article, with a lot of focus actually on season 38. BUT the next installation in the greatest show on television is almost here, and I’ve got a lot to say. In this post I’ll discuss my thoughts about the theme, give you my boot list, and talk some predictions!

So what about that theme?

If we look at things statistically, 15 of the last 17 seasons, dating back to Heroes vs. Villains, have had a distinct theme (only excluding Nicaragua and Philippines). Being that we are still seeing Survivor advance and change with every season, I don’t think we’ll be seeing themes go away. To me, it seems like that’s what production thinks will bring some sort of “newness” to each season, but I hope that one day we’ll see a string of seasons that go back to a more simple and classic Survivor.

Anyway, getting off my high horse, I’m sure you’re all wondering what my thoughts are on David vs. Goliath…well here they are:

I honestly don’t know how I feel about it. When it was initially announced I thought it was disappointing and didn’t like it. On one hand, I think seasons where people are divided by character traits as a theme like Brain, Brawn, Beauty are better than general themes like Ghost Island, Redemption Island, and Extinction Island (coming soon), so I thought David vs. Goliath was a step back in the right direction. I’ve always thought themes like that bring out the best characteristics in the castaways and there’s no extra gimmick like any of the aforementioned islands. That being said, I’ve been disappointed in the past 3 seasons and hope that David vs. Goliath is able to turn it around.

Season predictions

After listening to First One Out and actually getting to know the cast members, I think it will be a significantly more dynamic and diverse cast than the model-filled Ghost Island. I’m really hoping that we only see one tribe swap in order to let the relationships develop a little bit. If we do get two swaps, I hope it goes from 2 to 3 and back to 2 tribes instead of the 2-2-3 format. My hope for swaps: swap at 18 into 3 tribes, then swap back to 2 tribes at 16 and let that ride until merge at 13. Might help avoid a Malolo situation like last season and avoid losing a big character like Bradley right before the merge.

And of course, the idol nullifier! I hope one of our super fans finds this tool because otherwise I don’t think it’ll be used properly. I hope we see less idols and advantages and that this takes the place of the legacy advantage or a vote steal, instead of diluting the game play environment.

In my opinion, the theme needs to permeate strategy in order for it be a successful theme/season. I’m thinking that in order to build the suspense and tension of David vs. Goliath, you’ve gotta let the tribes be for a few episodes. I’m hoping we don’t see a swap until episode 4 in order for that to happen. Additionally, these monikers of David and Goliath will hopefully impact that mindsets of the castaways and allow them to take their roles and run with them. If that happens, I’m confident that this will be a great season of Survivor because this cast is significantly more interesting than what we had in Ghost Island and HHH.

Boot list

I’m just a Survivor peasant, so of course I am completely unspoiled. This will also serve as a pseudo cast assessment! Apparently, I’m pretty high on these Davids…

20. Jessica – I don’t see a way in which the David tribe doesn’t lose the first immunity challenge. I know Jeff has been saying that the challenges aren’t about who has the advantage but about WHAT the advantage is, but I just don’t see it. Jessica seems like someone that could be an easy first boot on a tribe of Davids who have some life experience, and people might find her annoying. If she doesn’t go early, she’ll probably end up like Libby – making the merge, but generally invisible and unimportant.

19. Davie – Davie came in as a very last-second replacement on the David tribe, and that makes me nervous for him since the other castaways haven’t been able to assess him in the pre-game portion. Also, after listening to some of his interviews I think he might lack some self-awareness and be too much of a personality. I hope Davie makes the merge because he will shake things up, but I don’t see it happening.

18. Mike – I don’t see Ned Schneebly being around too long. Mike is going to get a lot of screen time while he’s out on the island since he’ll be able to tell a great story, but a lot of other castaways recognized him from the Amazing Race and his various TV exploits, including Johnny Mundo who studied film (I know I was shocked too). He’s certainly not the most physical guy and seemed pretty blase about the whole experience. I think he’ll be in trouble the first time the Goliath tribe goes to tribal.

17. Lyrsa – I struggle to determine how well Lyrsa can do, because I loved her First One Out interview: she has a mind for the game, and I think she would be great TV. However, if the elements are going to be as much of a challenge as anticipated, she might be an easy “keep the tribe strong” boot if and when the going gets tough. Fiery and fun, but unfortunately without longevity.

16. Natalie – Natalie is hit or miss for me. She’s incredibly smart and successful, but is someone who likes to be in charge. Any time a leader-type emerges, they’re typically targeted. It also doesn’t help that Natalie looks inhibited on a physical level, something that can be cause to pause in the early potions of the game. Natalie gets taken out on a swapped tribe

15. Alec – I don’t see rule-breaker Alec getting to the merge, as his presumed showmance with Kara will likely see one or both of them targeted. As someone who’s dreamed of being on Survivor and applied to be on the show, his little Instagram stunt pisses me off. and CBS is barring him from the reunion show. Just keep your mouth shut and don’t disrespect the hundreds who have been able to keep it together, and don’t ruin it for everyone else who will try to play this game in the future. Hope you had fun in Australia.

14. Kara – Also complicit in Alec’s Instagram exploits upon their return to the mainland, she’s also on my shit list and probably most other people’s too. I think she’ll have a knack for the social game, but the fact that her pregame interview said that she’ll avoid a showmance made me laugh out loud. I hope she ends up on the pre-merge trip with her boo and misses the merge by a hair.

13. Angelina – Former Stanford student body president, Angelina is too much of a politician for me. I hate politicians and think that some of the castaways on the Goliath tribe are going to see right through her. She might have Chrissy upside but even at that, I don’t see it.

12. Johnny Mundo – The Mayor of Slamtown has merge boot (ish) written all over him. Big, physical, commanding dude who seems to be very personable and have a fan’s knowledge of the game — he’ll be in trouble once his physicality is no longer needed in a tribal setting.

11. Bi – Bi has only seen 6 seasons of Survivor and thinks that HHH is a great season…she’ll be a good physical competitor but I’m really low on her strategically. Someone will recognize her lack of awareness for the game and pick her up to string her along for the ride, but cut her loose once she becomes a strategic liability.

10. Natalia – I have her going in the 10 spot because I think she might be pretty invisible. I feel like the hype around her hasn’t been as big as it has for anyone else on the cast. She’ll be a good number for someone until they realize how much of a physical threat Natalia will be in the individual immunity challenges.

9. Jeremy – He’s a serious threat to win, which is why I have him at the mid-jury disappointment spot. I love Jeremy and think he’ll be a central character for this season, but he’ll probably be on the wrong end of a blindside at final 9 when numbers are primed to make a move. The trend is that the bigger threats have been going earlier, and it’s easier to boot them at an odd number.

8. Christian – Christian will likely serve as our narrator, as the most Davidy David of them all. He’ll either flame out or be able to make his way pretty far down the road, but he just saw Jacob and his epic exit, so I think the later is more reasonable. Christina will gain a respectable late game exit. Suitable for a genius superfan in my opinion!

7. Elizabeth – I like Elizabeth for her knowledge of the game, but I fear that she’ll come off brash. I think she’ll end up doing pretty well and overcome a lot of odds to get far, but will be a perceived jury threat and get blindsided by a better strategist.

6. Dan – I am really high on Dan. He’s been really hyping the season on Reddit and other social media platforms so I can only assume he wants as many people as possible to be equally hyped about the way he plays. A victim of the final four fire making challenge accelerating strategy of people who are worried about big threats to win.

5. Pat – The man who, according to Jeff Probst, inspired the David vs. Goliath theme will be a main stay for a while. I think he’ll be a fan favorite because of his hard working lifestyle and family focus. He won’t be a great physical threat, but he certainly will hold his own. I worry about him in the social aspect of things, but he is a Survivor fan and should understand strategy. Unfortunately, he won’t make it to the end.

4. Carl – He’ll be too likable to take to the final three, especially because he’s a family man truck driver who probably won’t burn too many bridges with people. Carl will be able to adapt to a lot of different situations. So he’ll get close to final three, but will lose in the fire making challenge and be the next castaway in the long lineage of beloved 4th place finishers.

3. Gabby – At best, Gabby has Aubry upside. She’s clearly got knowledge of the game and she’ll be able to play under the radar enough to not be a threat in the post-merge portion. If she can get in a tight alliance at the start of the game, she’ll be good to go and I think make it pretty deep. I fear that she might have Hannah downside though, in which nobody will recognize her game moves in a final three situation.

2. Alison – If Nick doesn’t win, I think it’ll be Alison. She outlines her plan as “keeping her strategy to herself, then laying it all out there at the end for everyone to see.” I hate that, and hope she has a change of heart and demonstrates a little bit more gamesmanship than relying on a final tribal council explanation because that never works. She was a college athlete, she’s incredibly smart, and she understands strategy. I’m hoping for the best for Alison!

1. Nick – Nick has every tool in the kit to win. He’s likable, he’s smart, he’s good physically, and he’s a super fan who knows strategy. I think Nick definitely makes the jury; there’s no reason he shouldn’t. He’s got some serious Wendell upside if I allow recency bias to infiltrate my thoughts. I really like Nick and think he’ll slingshot his way to the top!

Do you agree? Let me know your thoughts on the newest season of Survivor!