Following on from our last running of the numbers though our model to see the outcome of the EU elections for the South West, we decided to re-run the numbers with the latest opinion poll from YouGov to see how the changes might impact us here in the South West. What is key to note is that the collapse in the Tory vote, combined with a surge for the LibDems and Greens (the surge for the Brexit Party is blunted by the D’Hondt system) so has resulted in the shuffle up of the result. So now we project the following (with differences in seats from last calculation):

Brexit 2 (-)

Cons 1 (-1)

LibDems 2 (+1)

Green 1 (+1)

Labour 0 (-)

UKIP (-)

So from the last time, we’ve seen a shift in the vote towards pro-EU parties, with now the MEP totals evenly split between pro and anti EU parties. This means we project that the following will be our MEPs:

Brexit Party

Ann Widdecombe

James Glancy Conservatives

Ashley Fox Liberal Democrats

Caroline Voaden

Martin Horwood Green Party

Molly Scott Cato

This is based on the vote totals of:

Brexit: 526111

Cons: 167230

LibDems: 386634

Labour: 144305

Change UK: 75159

UKIP: 91126

Green: 211440

Note this model uses same caveats as before – main one being how turnout will impact the vote. The key thing is to get out and Vote for in the past far right votes only win when turnout is low!