For the first time in a decade, Russian stopped exports of wheat, just at a time when key buyers are in a hurry to raise imports.

A leading global supplier announced last month that it was limiting its exports to June to secure its own supply amid widespread food worries around the world due to the coronavirus pandemic. And although the restrictions were seen as liberal enough to continue the normal trade during this year, by now the entire quota has been spent.

This means that Russia will suspend grain shipments worldwide – with the exception of four former Soviet countries as soon as the last quota shipment leaves the country.

And although the ban only applies until the start of the harvest in July, a number of other neighboring countries also take similar restrictions, further raising concerns about possible shortages and price hikes. At the same time, countries from Egypt to Turkey are stocking up as long as they can, and Russian suppliers are trying to meet demand.

Andrey Sizov, Managing Director of the consulting company SovEcon, has recently warned of significant activity. “Buyers want to stock up because they realize they may not have the chance to do so later”, he said.

However, the window closes quickly. In just a few weeks, suppliers have filled the entire 7 million tonne quota set for June. In addition to strong demand, cheap ruble also sustains interest in Russian grain. At the same time, sales from the government reserve, another measure to guarantee local supply, help maintain local prices, and make exports even more competitive.

One of the reasons for limiting it so quickly is because suppliers have been quick to prepare their customs documents for future deliveries early, said Dmitry Rylko, director-general of the Agricultural Market Research Institute. This means that around 3 million tonnes are still to be exported in the next two months.

In the past, Russia has had practices interfering with grain markets through restrictions and fees, most recently imposing a ban on exports in 2010 after prolonged heatwaves in the country that destroyed the crop. This triggered a rally in wheat futures, and according to some analysts, it was also an indirect factor for the start of the Arab Spring.

But while global supplies are still sufficient, memories of food shortages in the past have resumed the debate over so-called food nationalism. Organizations such as the UN and the EU point out that the risk of social and political discontent is rising again against the backdrop of the coronavirus crisis, and urge that no unreasonable measures be taken that could endanger food security and lead to higher prices.

At the same time, limiting Russian exports could be beneficial for the competing suppliers such as the EU and the US, said Amy Reynolds, senior economist at the International Grain Council in London. Egypt is one of the countries that can buy more from the EU. The lead buyer has taken the unusual step of buying large quantities of grain during the harvest. The North African country relies heavily on Black Sea grain but has already increased its purchases from France this season because of more competitive prices.

Increased demand is draining European stockpiles at a time when drought is threatening the continent’s crops. If conditions in the Black Sea region continue to be unfavorable, it could cause buyers around the world to stock up even more over the coming weeks.

“The likelihood of this scenario is increasing given the weather now. Among the leading exporters, the US has one of the largest reserves, and that can help its sales”, said Andrey Sizov.

However, forecasting trade flows remains difficult because of uncertainty about how the health crisis will play out. The collapse in energy prices will also affect the economies of importing countries such as Algeria and Nigeria, which rely on oil for much of their revenue.

“The demand profile is uncertain and even more vague due to developments in the crude oil sector, with some of the major buyers potentially affected by declining oil revenues”, said Amy Reynolds.