Delegate chase: Tight race in Wisconsin, Trump running up the score in New York Presented by the United States Postal Service

With Kevin Robillard, Elena Schneider and Scott Bland

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races — and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news — sign up for Campaign Pro today. (https://subscriber.politicopro.com/proinfo)


STRATEGY AND TACTICS — "Dem oppo researchers pick up GOP weapons of 2014," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "Republicans spent 2014 slamming Democratic senators for missing hearings on terrorism, veterans matters, and Ebola. In 2016, Democrats are adopting the same tactics — and GOP Sens. Kelly Ayotte and Rob Portman are two of their first targets. ... Republicans made hay over such absences by Democrats in 2014, fully utilizing an opposition-research resource that had been hiding in plain sight. Senators and House members from both parties had skipped plenty of these hearings for years with few consequences. But by scouring little-read transcripts and hearing videos, GOP campaigns were able to publish attendance records and argue that Democrats weren’t doing their jobs." http://politico.pro/1RnhQIU

DELEGATE MATH — "New surveys show close Wisconsin primary, New York delegate bonanza for Trump," by POLITICO's Scott Bland: "Donald Trump, John Kasich, and Ted Cruz are locked in a tight three-way primary in Wisconsin one week ahead of the state’s election, with each drawing strength from different parts of the state, according to new large-sample [automated] surveys conducted at the state and congressional-district level by Optimus Consulting. Trump has a wide lead in New York’s primary two weeks later, including majorities in most Long Island and New York City districts ... There’s a catch, though: Significant shares of Republicans in both states, especially women, say they would not vote for Trump if he makes it to the general election."

— "Optimus ... found Trump with 29 percent, Kasich with 27 percent, and Cruz with 25 percent support in Wisconsin. But Trump is ahead in just three of the eight congressional districts (including wide leads in the state’s two northern districts), while Cruz leads in two and Kasich leads in one. The other two are within the margin of error.That means small changes in the last week of campaigning in Wisconsin could have big effects on the delegate count. The statewide winner will receive 18 delegates, but an additional 24 are available three at a time to the winner of each district."

— "Trump leads Kasich 47 percent to 22 percent in New York, with Cruz bringing up the rear at 15 percent, according to Optimus’ survey. The district breakdowns also show Trump leading in every seat except one, a heavily Democratic district where the sample size was less than 100. Furthermore, Trump clears the 50-percent mark in 11 New York congressional districts ... That’s important because district winners in New York can collect all three district delegates if they win a majority of the vote there. (A statewide majority would also net Trump all 14 at-large delegates, instead of sharing them proportionally.) Trump is at 45 percent or higher in an additional half-dozen New York congressional districts, per Optimus." http://politico.pro/1RzFoct

Days until the Wisconsin primary: 8.

Days until the 2016 election: 225.

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GETTING A LIFT — "Clinton to attack Grassley over Supreme Court blockade," by POLITICO's Annie Karni: "The Democrats running against Sen. Chuck Grassley, the popular Iowa Republican seeking a seventh term, are gaining a powerful new ally: Hillary Clinton. "In a speech about the Supreme Court that Clinton is scheduled to deliver at the University of Wisconsin at Madison, the Democratic front-runner is expected to single out Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley and challenge him to hold hearings on the nomination of Merrick Garland to fill the Supreme Court seat vacated last month by the death of Antonin Scalia, according to a campaign official." http://politi.co/1qahlb2

NEW THIS MORNING — Young TV ad highlights national security credentials: GOP Rep. Todd Young is out with a new 30-second TV ad in Indiana’s Senate race, focused on national security issues and his own experience as a Marine. “The career politicians are content to play games and watch America fade, totally ignoring the threats we face,” Young says in an intense, direct-to-camera appeal. “I've had it. I'm ready to go the U.S. Senate and I'm ready to fight.” Watch the ad: http://bit.ly/1UW7a5c.

'VERY NASTY' — King accuses Nick Ryan of trying to "buy a congressman" in IA-04: GOP Rep. Steve King, who recently picked up a primary challenger in state Sen. Rick Bertrand, has accused two prominent Iowa Republicans of convincing Bertrand to run, The Iowa State Daily reports. "They want to buy a congressman," King said, referring to Nick Ryan, a GOP operative, and Bruce Rastetter, the biggest Republican donor in the state. "I think it'll be a very nasty primary," King added. "That's the stock and trade of Nick Ryan. He doesn't know anything else, and he profits from money raised and money spent, so he gets a commission coming and going." But Ryan sad he had no formal role in Bertrand's campaign, and that King had asked him for money in the past. "How disappointing and sad that Steve lashes out like this,” Ryan wrote in an email to the newspaper. http://bit.ly/1qaAtFK

FIRST IN SCORE — Cooper attacks McCrory on anti-discrimination law: Democrat Roy Cooper will go after GOP Gov. Pat McCrory in a new web video for signing a law last week that bans local governments from creating their own anti-discrimination ordinances, after Charlotte's city council passed LGBT protections earlier this month. The video highlights responses from the business community, including the NBA, which is reconsidering whether to host its 2017 All-Star Game in the state. The Cooper campaign has also launched a new website, shameonmccrory.com, tied to McCrory's signature of the bill. Watch the video: http://bit.ly/1Uwf2vO.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ — "Marco Rubio's secret (money) legacy," by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher: "Marco Rubio’s campaign is dead. His secret-money legacy lives on. Nobody knows who funded the nonprofit group that spent more than $10 million on TV ads boosting Rubio, and untold more on mailers and research. And, unless those donors out themselves, nobody ever will. No presidential candidate fighting for their party’s nomination has ever benefited from as much undisclosed cash, and watchdogs worry the pro-Rubio group’s unchecked activity serves as a dangerous precedent that will soon become common practice." http://politi.co/1UWtP12

— “How Clinton’s email scandal took root,” by The Washington Post’s Robert O’Harrow Jr.: In the endless barrage of stories about Hillary Clinton’s email, this one stands out. The Post shows in exhaustive detail just how important it was to Clinton to hang onto her personal BlackBerry — which was tethered to her private email server at her home in Chappaqua, N.Y. Now, 147 “FBI agents have been deployed to run down leads [related to the case], according to a lawmaker briefed by FBI Director James B. Comey. The FBI has accelerated the investigation because officials want to avoid the possibility of announcing any action too close to the election.” http://wapo.st/1pSRBQF

— “Ted Cruz names friends, but silence from GOP brass deafens,” by The New York Times’ Jonathan Martin and Matt Flegenheimer: “Nearly two weeks after Senator Marco Rubio dropped out of the race, there has been no mass rush to Mr. Cruz, even as he appears to be the last line of defense against a Trump nomination.” Part of that may be because Rubio hasn’t thrown his support behind Cruz.. “Rubio is likely to run again for president in 2020 should Republicans lose the White House this year, and, in making scores of thank-you calls to donors in recent days, he has been discouraged by some party financiers from supporting Mr. Cruz, according to a Republican strategist briefed on the calls. Without Mr. Rubio’s imprimatur, many of his backers seem disinclined to back Mr. Cruz.” http://nyti.ms/22G7OtJ

— “Meet South Carolina's anti-Trump double agents," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney and Katie Glueck: "Donald Trump triumphed in South Carolina’s primary last month. Now, the state could be ground zero for his undoing. … All 50 of South Carolina’s delegates [to the Republican National Convention] are duty-bound to support Trump on a first vote, but interviews with two dozen prospective delegates and party insiders — including several Trump backers — reveal a widespread belief that Cruz and Kasich will succeed in wresting the delegation away from Trump if the nomination fight heads to a second ballot. If Trump is unable to claim the nomination immediately, South Carolina could help tip the scales away from the New York billionaire." http://politi.co/1PwFpt0

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Some people call me boring as a result. Well, if I’m boring, then good. I accept it.” — John Kasich, who is steering clear of the insults that have flown between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz recently. http://wapo.st/1VPr5DA

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