The draft is officially upon us! In order to prepare everyone for the NBA Draft, I turned to the internet and asked for questions I could respond to, expecting no more than a few responses.

To my surprise, pleasure and dread, I was overwhelmed by responses on both Twitter and Reddit. Due to the profusion of questions, I’ll keep most of these answers brief. Thank you to everyone who participated!

Ignacio Rissotto, @eyreball

I am glad I got this question since it is one people ask me often and it is a good way to preface the things I value for the rest of the piece and my process as a whole. Before we begin, I am no expert. This is my first year covering the draft at a high level and I am still learning every day. However, I hope there is some wisdom I can impart here. Ignacio included some bullet points, so I will go off of those.

The only way to truly scout a prospect is to watch full games. Statistics are useful and necessary, but they require the context of the film. Highlight scouting is bad for reasons I shouldn’t need to explain. Watching all five players at once is a muscle you build and it only gets stronger the more you watch. I try to watch all the players at once, or as many players as I am scouting. If a player catches my eye, I will add him to the list of guys to focus on.

During the game, there are a million things to focus on. Something I don’t focus much on is whether a player’s shots go in or not. Shotmaking is mostly determined by the stat sheet as prospects can get hot or cold in any game. Here are some of the questions I may ask myself when scouting a prospect’s feel for the game, one of the traits I treasure most in my evaluations. Is the player making good decisions or bad decisions? Is the player making high-level decisions? Is the player making reads I didn’t see coming?

Is the player missing reads I noticed?

If I could pick one play to describe RJ Barrett, this one would be it pic.twitter.com/TuF9KWIWRw — Ben Pfeifer (@Ben_Pfeifer_) March 12, 2019

Does the player have a good or bad general sense of court awareness?

I've been quite impressed with Sekou Doumbouya on the defensive end as of late but there's no denying he's still raw there. Poor awareness here as he lets his man cut behind him while he ball watches. pic.twitter.com/TSYYJBFENt — Ben Pfeifer (@Ben_Pfeifer_) April 22, 2019

Does the player have outlier defensive instincts or awareness?

This sequence from Charles Matthews is awesome. Rotates to take away a layup, good closeout to shut down a 3-point attempt, swipes at the ball for a steal and finishes through traffic pic.twitter.com/j2HJzx5zNK — Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) May 24, 2019

How is the player adjusting/adapting to the game?

There are more layers to this and I apply this same process to every facet of a player’s game. As for how many games it takes to form a confident opinion, it varies. For some prospects, all I need is one game to know if they are or are not good. For others, it could take 10 games to form a confident opinion. A good rule of thumb: Watch as many games as possible to form the best opinion.

As for my note taking process, I learned my current method from the great Jackson Hoy, formerly of the Stepien. It was an immeasurable boon to my evaluation skills and I want to pass it on. For each game, I will set up bullet points for each prospect I am scouting. Whenever the prospect does something noteworthy, I write a bullet point under the prospect’s name. Here is a sample game:

What are the most important skills for a prospect to have? — Mason Smith (@MasonSmith23) June 15, 2019

Feel for the game is paramount in my analysis. When I began scouting, I heard so much about feel for the game and how crucial it was but struggled to identify it. It all comes down to decisions, on both ends of the floor. Players who make good decisions with the ball and good decisions in team defense “feel” the game of basketball. They have a natural understanding of how to play the game.

How many good NBA players lack feel for the game? At the highest level of competition, teams need smart players who make winning decisions. Talented scorers with a low feel for the game don’t add meaningfully positive value through inefficiency, as efficiency is the number one driver of winning.

Athletic tools are also important, as NBA players have to be able to hang physically with their competition. However, players need to be more than their tools and must be able to apply them functionally.

The defense is something I value heavily, mainly team defense. Five people play defense at all times, not one. An elite point of attack defender can simply be avoided at the highest levels. An elite team defender will always have a place since making rotation and off-ball reads are so crucial.

For small players and initiators, pull-up shooting is vital, as the deadliest shot in basketball. Off dribble three-point shooting is a hallmark of all great initiators and is the most valuable shot in basketball, making it important to identify for all small (meaning 6-foot-4 and under, barring exceptions) prospects.

There are other things to value dependent on the prospect, but being able to impact winning at a high level is the big key.

How many prospects in the class would you be surprised if they weren't solid starters? — Thomas SinCara (@beenthrifty) June 14, 2019

This point has been belabored to death, but this draft class isn’t the greatest. Its issue is not depth, though, it is high-end talent. I’m not sure what “solid starter” means, so I will define “solid starter” as a +1 RPM or PIPM season. My rough list is as follows: Zion Williamson, Jarrett Culver, Brandon Clarke, Grant Williams, Goga Bitadze, PJ Washington, Chuma Okeke.

If you were every NBA GM, where would you take Reddish? — Justin Carter (@juscarts) June 14, 2019

Based on the way my board would fall if I were every GM, the earliest I would consider Reddish is 10 with Atlanta. Reddish is not the 10th best prospect on my board and there will be better guys available, but Atlanta needs a wing and many of the wings will be gone at this point. He’ll make plays defensively and Atlanta’s environment with a space-warping initiator is the best one for Reddish’s shooting and offensive development.

Some other potential Reddish landing spots would be Miami at 13 Indiana at 18, San Antonio at 19, Oklahoma City at 21.

Will we see more teams swinging for the fences than usual this draft? — Stone Hansen (@report_court) June 14, 2019

I assume “swing for the fences” means taking risks, so I will say yes. I have no intel, though I expect one or more teams to trade up and I expect Bol Bol to go much higher than many have him slated. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Washington at nine or Atlanta at 10 take a chance on his upside.

What do you see as Thybulle’s offensive role? — Sam M (@sammazz3) June 15, 2019

Ideally, Matisse Thybulle develops a consistent outside shot and I believe in his jumper to a reasonable extent due to his free throw percentage (85.1) and general touch. If he does, Thybulle’s offensive role is likely nothing more than a spot-up shooter and fifth option who can occasionally attack a closeout.

This is getting away from the question, but the idea with Thybulle is he adds so much defensive value his lack of offensive utility is essentially meaningless. If Thybulle can get to plus-three or plus-four on defense, it doesn’t really matter if he is a zero or even a minus-one on offense. Though, I imagine he will peak somewhere around +0.5-1, given his jump shot develops how I think it will.

What are your concerns with Coby’s handle? — rol🧸 (@rolNBA) June 15, 2019

Coby White has a good handle, let me start with this. At this point, his handle seems to be more flash over function and far more effective when he has momentum. White is a fantastic decelerator, halting his momentum into stepbacks and such:

He isn’t the best accelerating from a standstill due to his loose handle, partly due to his small arms and torso. Opposite of Darius Garland, his loose handle doesn’t allow him to move East and West as effectively, starting without momentum:

Coby White struggled like crazy in his last meeting with Duke. Big test for him tonight pic.twitter.com/Wkdm1cgEjQ — Ben Pfeifer (@Ben_Pfeifer_) March 9, 2019

While I am concerned with White’s handle, it is far from a deal breaker. He flashes real handling and creation prowess and it could be a major strength for him with a bit of refining.

Battle of the Cams: Who do you prefer, Reddish or Johnson? (Either outright or from a value perspective.) — Trevor William Marks (@twmarks_) June 14, 2019

I’ll answer both questions here. Outright, I prefer Reddish. While Reddish was statistically inconsistent this season, has no burst and below average awareness, he’s good at defense, should shoot due to his shot versatility and volume and is only 19.

Cam Johnson is an elite shooter and has seriously nice IQ, but I have reservations about who he defends at the NBA level and he is already 23. Where they are likely to be drafted, give me Johnson in the 20s over Reddish in the top 10.

Bol Bol or Nic Claxton? I'll take my answer off air in the form of an article — Wyatt Nail (@naileditnba) June 14, 2019

Bol Bol. There is a laundry list of reasons to hate Bol, but his upside is undeniable. Even if there is a slim chance he hits his high outcome, his elite shooting and handles for his size make him a worthwhile gamble high in the draft. Claxton is a monster on the perimeter, has plus IQ and played point guard for Georgia, though I am not sure what he does on offense and he might lack the strength needed to play center at the NBA level.

Who are your top options for the Sixers in the first round? — Andrew Kelly (@Andrew_K47) June 14, 2019

Grant Williams as a top seven talent who will fall for inexplicable reasons, Chuma Okeke and Jontay Porter as lottery talents with elite IQ who will fall for injury reasons, Carsen Edwards for versatile shooting.

In terms of strictly intangibles & off the court who’s the prospect you trust most to maximize his ability? — starr (@starrtraak) June 15, 2019

The easy answer here is Grant Williams, given he is a genius and seems like a self-aware human being. I am going to throw out a different answer, though: Terance Mann. In an interview, Mann compared himself to an NBA player similar to him: Torrey Craig. It is common for draft prospects to label themselves 3-and-D wings to preach to what the NBA wants.

Fewer prospects have the self-awareness and smarts to compare themselves to nothing more than a rotation player and I would expect Mann to be a more effective offensive player than Craig. I admire his humility in making the Craig comparison and have confidence in him accepting his role and getting the most out of his minutes because of it.

Who is going to be selected by the Hornets? — Filippo 📣 (@BarresiFilippo4) June 14, 2019

I don’t have any intel, so I can only say who I believe they should select at 12. A team starved for talent, the Hornets should pick the best player available, who will be Brandon Clarke if he is on the clock. Even if Kemba Walker leaves, the athleticism of a Clarke-Miles Bridges pairing is exhilaratingly fun.

Odds that Sekou is the second best player in this draft when it's all said and done? Goga or Hayes? Third-best PG in the draft? — The Halfcourt Press (@THalfCourtPress) June 14, 2019

Very, very low. Sekou has the frame, athleticism and shooting you want in an NBA wing, but his lack of skills and feel for the game are concerning.

Hayes, for his uber-rare movement skills which lend more upside than Bitazde has.

Assuming we classify Coby White as a point guard, Darius Garland.

Does next years guard class affect how you think about this years guards? Like would you consider on passing on some of this years guards knowing there will be a ton of good guards — Sun (8-1) (@jackson_brannen) June 14, 2019

Yes and no. If a team really likes a guard prospect in this draft, I have no problem with them drafting them high. However, it becomes an issue if the team is reluctant to draft a better lead guard in next year’s draft if the guard picked this year isn’t everything they hoped for. If I really believe in Coby White, I take him high regardless of next year’s class. If he flops, I am not passing on Cole Anthony or Killian Hayes for lesser prospects because I took White last year.

Who’s most likely to become the next Van Vleet? Jokic? Late round straight out of left field gem? — josh (@5280_AF) June 14, 2019

I’m not going to answer with a generic draft Twitter sleeper here (Jontay, Okeke, etc.). Instead, I will present Justin Wright-Foreman. The bar for small guards to make an NBA impact is fantastically high and Wright-Foreman will always be an awful defender. He has one of the deadliest pull-ups in the class and, combined with his all-around offensive talent, could make him a valuable initiator in spurts, think a lower volume Lou Williams.

Will Atlanta and/or Boston keep all of their picks? What are you hearing as far as trade rumors within the draft? — Coach Barnes (@coach_dust) June 14, 2019

I don’t have any inside intel, so I will make educated guesses based on my intuition for the two teams mentioned. I would expect Boston to make all three picks given Anthony Davis is off of the table. Travis Schlenk has been vocal about not wanting to keep five (now six) rookies, so I would guess they make less than six picks and one or two of them are stashes.

Are undersized non-initiators with +skill (handling/shooting/self-creation) the most overlooked archetype? If not, what is? — Carter Young (@carteryoung340) June 15, 2019

Assuming the question pertains to small players with plus-skill but not enough skill to be an initiator, then they are not a super valuable archetype. Small players are becoming increasingly phased out of the league as is. Unless the player is an initiator or special defender, their value is lower than their taller peers.

Are Clarke (and Mikal) good enough defensively to cover for a D'Lo/Booker/Ayton trio — Dom Tesoriero (@dom_tesoriero) June 15, 2019

Brandon Clarke is one of my favorite fits for the Suns, as his defensive greatness would go a long way in covering for Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton’s woes. However, adding another poor backcourt defender next to Booker would be too much for Clarke and Bridges to cover for. Those two would absolutely add massive defensive value on their own, but defense is not an individual game. It is true that a team is only as good as its weakest link. With this Suns’ lineup, playoff teams would hunt Booker and Russell and repeatedly attack Ayton in pick and roll. While it would be exciting and offensively potent, I’d have serious qualms about this lineup defensively.

Who are your top 3 “Donovan Mitchell” mid round pick to true no 1 option candidates? — THOMAS (@NEWLlN) June 15, 2019

By “Donovan Mitchell,” I assume the question is asking for three mid-round picks who could unexpectedly develop into an initiator. First, Kevin Porter, for his elite separation ability for pull-ups and functional athleticism. If he improves his mentality and gets to the rim more, there is legit number one scoring option upside there.

Second is Talen Horton-Tucker. With his creation and ball-handling flashes, along with a frame conducive to rim volume, there is an outcome where Horton-Tucker is a low-level initiator. Third, I’m going way out in left field with Tremont Waters. His height may make it difficult to make a positive contribution, but he is skilled enough to have an Isaiah Thomas mold impact with more development.

After approximately how many picks is it socially acceptable to stop ranking guys and just make a big tier of prospects I like in a random order? — Alessandro Cozzi (@AleCozz1) June 15, 2019

This would be a question for my friend Sam Mazzullo (@sammazz3 on Twitter) and his big board.

Coby White

Darius Garland

(tier)

Carsen Edwards

Justin Wright-Foreman

(tier)

Matt Morgan

As for Gafford, it goes back to my philosophy regarding drafting bigs. The NBA is oversaturated with big men and the position is the most replaceable in the league. If I don’t believe a big has any special shooting, playmaking ability or top-notch defense, I won’t value him heavily. As for Gafford, aside from his elite finishing, there are questions about him. I am low on his defensive instincts and vertical explosion and he has some limits on offense. He absolutely could be a serviceable starting or backup NBA center, but teams can find guys who will provide similar value to Gafford on the scrap heap.

As for Hayes, I believe he has special upside with his rare movement skills and flashes of IQ. He is likely to shoot due to his touch and free throw percentage and has flashed some handling ability along with a developing ability to pass. With his tools and athleticism, I see special defensive upside along with more offensive utility than Gafford. There’s a good chance Hayes is never a better NBA player than Gafford and a smaller chance Hayes is leagues better. For that small chance, I value Hayes higher due to the prioritization of upside on my board. This is a good question and one deserving of more depth, something I may cover in the future. I hope this sufficed for now.

Answer above.

I don’t have any intel and am purely guessing here, but I could see Nic Claxton slipping further than his top 20 projection as some may suggest. Him not receiving an invite could mean he got a promise he liked, or it could mean the NBA is lower on him than we’ve been let on.

Roby is a tier and over 50 spots ahead of both King and Schofield on my personal board. I’m a big believer in Roby, and despite his passivity and defensive lapses, his athleticism is excellent and he flashes enough shooting/handling to give confidence in him as a modern combo forward type.

Porter would be my selection here. Orlando is starved for dynamic perimeter creation and Porter has the skillset to provide this. While he has the mentality, shooting and feel questions, he’s undoubtedly one of the most electric creators in the class, with an elite ability to separate for his pull-up jumper:

That alone is a great foundation for a strong coach in Steve Clifford to build upon and hopefully unlock the rest of Porter’s offensive game, chiefly getting to the rim more and abating his penchant for long step back jumpers.

I would be surprised if Massinburg is drafted. With Massinburg’s strength, athleticism and defensive versatility, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him stick around as a 3-and-D point guard type if he shot the ball at an above-average level.

The best shooter in this draft is Tyler Herro, despite his three-point percentage. His elite touch, sky-high free-throw percentage (93.5) and pull-up versatility give me confidence in him as a three-point marksman at the next level and it leads me to believe he’ll eventually shoot well off of movement. His range seems to be 15-30.

I touched on this a bit in an earlier response, but I like Hayes at 12 for Charlotte due to his upside. I do think he will shoot threes at some point due to his free-throw percentage, rim percentage and natural touch around the rim.

As the third-ranked prospect on my board, Brandon Clarke’s elite functional athleticism and feel for the game outweigh any frame and age concerns. He’s going to impact the game on defense at a high level from day one and he has a good chance to shoot threes due to his touch and high volume and efficiency in the mid-range and at the rim. My guess would be Clarke’s range begins with Atlanta at 10 and ends with Boston at 20.

I am bearish on Hachimura’s translation to the NBA level. His touch, strength and skill as a face-up scorer will be effective in a bench bucket-getter role, though I am doubtful he is ever a starter due to his lack of feel for the game. I do think he will eventually shoot threes though due to his touch and comfortability from mid-range.

My guess would be Josh Reaves goes undrafted. I am a fan, though, as he is a super smart team defender and all around high IQ and feel player. If he shoots threes, he has the potential to be a valuable wing defender and floor spacer.

I am a believer in Thybulle’s offense being at least neutral for the reasons the question outlines. Playing devil’s advocate, Thybulle only had 79 attempts at the rim in 1,118 minutes, a frighteningly low number. His overall passivity on offense is concerning, though if he can get to league average from three he should provide enough offensive value to be playable.

I would rank Tre Jones in the same tier as Coby White and Darius Garland, in the mid-teens range. There are real offensive concerns with Jones, mostly regarding his three-point shot. However, his feel for the game is elite and he is a special point-guard defender, with strength at the point of attack and playmaking instincts to wreck offenses (see the Texas Tech game). If Jones shoots, he has the feel and defense to be one of the game’s most valuable 3-and-D guards.

If Zion failed to develop into a real offensive engine, my guess as to why would be he never became at least a league average three-point shooter and he developed his self-creation enough to excel at a high level. Due to Zion’s defense and transition value alone, I struggle to see a scenario where he doesn’t provide positive value, though it is possible he never becomes a true initiator if the shot never comes along.

The “killer instinct” claims with Zion are off-base (killer instincts is a fallacy and ultimately a negative aspect, anyway). Much of his lack of taking over came from Coach K’s lack of creative ways to exploit Zion’s talent and RJ Barrett’s “killer instinct” and his denomination as the closer, even if it usually meant Duke’s downfall. I would always rather my star be a strong decision maker than be a ravenous shot-hunter at the end of games and Zion is firmly the former.

The biggest convergence from consensus would be Jontay Porter in my top 10, even though quite a few members of the draft cognoscenti have him in this range. Despite his legitimate injury concerns, his talent is massive as a basketball savant, elite playmaker, handler and shooter for his size.

While this isn’t an unpopular opinion among many draftniks, Zion Williamson will exceed the already massive expectations he has heading into his rookie season. Most seem to understate his greatness, as I would not be surprised to see him play at an All-Star level due to his all-universe athleticism and feel for the game. He is going to provide massive value as a defensive player and transition scorer, as well as some 1-on-1 playmaking against many lesser athletes.

I’m going to exclude the projected top three picks (Zion, RJ, Ja) and my own top three prospects (Zion, Culver, Clarke) here and instead pivot to Goga Bitadze. His upside isn’t as high as other bigs like Bol Bol and Jaxson Hayes, but he’s already a positive contributor in the EuroLeague and has multiple translatable skills (pick and roll defense, finishing, rim protection, projectable three-point shot) suggesting he’ll impact winning for years, even if he only peaks near all-star impact.

I am not privy to any inside intel within the Mavericks organization, so I will give what I believe they should do, which is draft Jontay Porter or Terence Davis. Porter for the reasons outlined above and Davis as one of the best athletes in this class with a versatile jumper and underrated handling and passing skill. Despite being 6-foot-4, he has wing equity due to his athleticism and length.

Compared to the others, it may very well be Keldon Johnson. He’s a nice movement shooter with a runner game and solid man defense, but he lacks intuition at times and lacks the burst or the handle to separate on offense reliably. I’ll pick Brandon Clarke as the biggest improver, as I believe he will have developed a reliable outside shot by his second contract, becoming one of the most valuable two-way contributors in the league.

I have talked about Hachimura and Clarke multiple times throughout this piece, so I’ll keep this short. It seems Hachimura will be picked above for his points per game and volume scoring, as that is what the NBA values, over Clarke’s defensive dominance and feel for the game.

The only spot I would see Smailagic being drafted is at 58 by the Warriors, or maybe 28. They’ve done a masterful job hiding a talented prospect, as there is such little buzz surrounding him. At 18 years old, his defensive instincts are advanced and he has a burgeoning driving game with a translatable jumper.