In fact, numerous economic studies show that the children of white parents, particularly those with advanced education, are far more likely than young minorities to reach the top rungs of the economic ladder. But this survey reconfirms earlier Heartland results that suggest minorities are more likely than whites to expect opportunity for their children, because they are more likely to see their own lives as examples of generational progress. Two-thirds of Hispanics and half of African-Americans placed their parents in the lower class or lower-middle class at their age, compared with about one-third of whites.

In this poll, as in earlier surveys, whites were much more likely to express fears that opportunity for young people has already peaked, even for those with a college degree. "I feel sorry for my kids--they're just getting out of college--because they have nothing to look forward to," said Tim Cooper, a logistical equipment salesman who lives in the Chicago suburbs. "They're not going to have the ability in the near future to buy a home. There are thousands of people who are going to be stuck with their student loans."

On a Tightrope

People who responded to the Allstate/National Journal poll reported a substantial amount of economic churning in their own lives--showing, again, a close balance between upward and downward mobility in American life. Exactly 30 percent of those surveyed reported they had risen from a lower economic class, and 27 percent said they had slipped down from a higher class. Forty-three percent had seen no movement at all.

Looking into the future, the poll found a mix of optimism and anxiety, filigreed with fascinating contrasts of race and class. Overall, 56 percent of those surveyed said they thought it very or somewhat likely they would reach "a higher class at some point" in their lives. Just 42 percent thought it unlikely they would climb. Optimism is even more common among Americans of working age; more than four-fifths of adults under 30, more than two-thirds of those in their 30s, and just over three-fifths of people in their 40s think they will rise, compared to much smaller proportions of seniors and workers soon to retire.

But once again, the racial divide was substantial. Almost three-fourths of minorities said they considered it likely they would rise; whites, though, split exactly in half, with little difference between those with or without a college degree.

This resilient optimism about rising was matched by a widespread fear of falling. Fully 59 percent of respondents voiced concern "about falling out of [their] current economic class over the next few years," including 28 percent who were "very" concerned. Only 40 percent said they weren't concerned about losing ground. Veronica Tovar, a food-service worker in Los Angeles, said she "absolutely" worries about slipping. "Here, you used to work 40 hours a week and you had enough to pay your rent, your utilities, your car," she said. "And you could even spend some money to go eat out two or three times a week. And that kept the money moving around.... It's not that way now. Now you only buy what you need."