Doyel: Chris Ballard's choice for Colts next coach is obvious

INDIANAPOLIS – Give me Dave Toub, and you can have the field.

Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels? He’s yours. Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich? Yours. Mike Shanahan, Bruce Arians, Nick Saban? Yours and yours and hahahahaha – oh wait, you’re serious about Nick Saban? Fine. He’s yours too.

In the Indianapolis Colts’ biggest major event in years – their search for a new head coach – Dave Toub is my Tiger Woods, and I’m talking about mid-2000s Tiger, when he was dominating golf and the predicted winner at every major was a binary choice: Tiger … or the field.

Toub is my Tiger, and by that I mean: Toub is Chris Ballard’s Tiger – and Ballard is the Colts’ general manager, the guy who’s going to make this hire. Colts owner Jim Irsay made that clear Monday, when he and Ballard met the media to discuss the coach search and Irsay said he will have Ballard “do the heavy lifting” and “leading the search” and “bringing the owner, me, the best candidate” and “making his recommendation.”

And then Irsay said: “And I can’t think of any time – in fact I’m sure I can’t, there hasn’t been a time – where I haven’t followed what the general manager had recommended to me.”

So Ballard is making this choice. And you ask me, he already has.

To quote Jim Irsay on Monday: Lookit. Go back to Jan. 28, 2017. That was one day before Irsay hired Ballard, then with the Kansas City Chiefs, to replace Ryan Grigson. Even then, before Ballard was even hired here, CBS’ Jason La Canfora was reporting – not guessing, but reporting – that the “Colts are definitely intrigued by Chiefs personnel man Chris Ballard, and his preference would be Chief ST coach Dave Toub as his HC.”

You know those initials, right? ST = special teams. HC = head coach.

OMG = I know who Ballard’s going to hire.

And it’s not just that leak about Ballard-and-Toub on Jan. 28, and again, that was no guess. That was a leak, a sign, a precursor of things to come. Things like another leak on Monday, when Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reported – because he was told by someone who would know – that the Colts already had three candidates they were planning to interview: Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy and Chiefs special teams coach Dave Toub.

If that were the totality of my case – someone leaking Toub’s name on Jan. 28, and someone else leaking it on Monday – then my case stinks. But your honor, I’m not finished. I’d like to call one more witness to the stand. His name is Chris Ballard.

And with Ballard sitting there Monday at the Colts complex, I asked him a loaded question about Dave Toub without naming Dave Toub. I wanted to smoke Ballard out, so I asked him – knowing that Toub and the Chiefs are in the playoffs – this question: Could you make a hire this week, or are there coaches on playoff teams you’ll wait to interview?

I submit Ballard’s response:

“We’re going to take our time and we’re going to make sure,” he said, and no, that doesn’t prove anything. But hang on. Ballard isn’t finished.

“A lot of great teams in this league take some time,” he said. “(They) want to make sure it’s the right fit.”

No, not yet. Here it comes, and I ask that the jury please note the highlighted words:

“We want a partner,” Ballard said. “The head coach-general manager relationship is one of the most important things for the success of this franchise. We want to make sure we get the right fit for this organization.”

The head coach-general manager relationship is one of the most important things …

I rest my case – Toub is my Tiger – and in my closing argument I’ll explain why:

Back when Tiger was dominating golf in the mid-2000s, Dave Toub was the special teams coordinator of the Chicago Bears. In those days Chris Ballard was a scout, a rising star, a future general manager working in player personnel for the … Chicago Bears. Toub and Ballard both worked for the Bears from 2004-12.

In 2013, Dave Toub went to the Chiefs.

So did Chris Ballard.

Now this story moves to 2015, and to Chicago: In January 2015, the Chicago Bears were in the market for a general manager and a head coach. The Bears brought in Chris Ballard for an interview. The Chicago Tribune, citing “sources,” speculated that hiring Ballard as GM would work best if the Bears then hired a certain man as their new head coach:

Dave Toub.

Lookit: Toub’s the guy, the leader in the clubhouse. That doesn’t mean he’ll end up the Colts’ coach, OK? Good as he was in his heyday, and in his heyday he was the best of all time, Tiger Woods didn’t win them all. Sometimes, someone in the field would rise up and have a great week and that would be that. Surprises happen.

Case in point: 2012, right here in Indianapolis. New Colts GM Ryan Grigson interviewed eight men to replace Jim Caldwell as head coach. One of them was a candidate from the field – from left field – but his passion and enthusiasm and optimism carried the day, and that’s how the Colts hired first-year Ravens defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano.

Weird things happen. Chris Ballard is leaning toward Dave Toub, that couldn’t be more obvious, but he’s a thorough guy. Ballard and Jim Irsay spoke to the media for 20-plus minutes on Monday, and while Irsay scared me a few times when he pounded the table and leaned toward me and said my name as he got red in the face, the quote I’ll remember is this one from Chris Ballard:

“When I go on the road and scout,” Ballard was saying, “I’m not only scouting players, but scouting coaches too.”

Like I said, he’s thorough. And damn good at what he does, OK? Not long ago the early returns on his first Colts draft class were mixed, but as injuries mounted and Pagano had no choice but to play a few more of Ballard’s picks – cornerback Quincy Wilson and pass-rushing linebacker Tarell Basham – it was clear: Ballard’s first draft class (led by safety Malik Hooker and running back Marlon Mack, with promising looks from Wilson, Basham, corner Nate Hairston and linebacker Anthony Walker) was a hit.

Ballard also nailed his free-agent acquisitions, most notably Johnathan Hankins and Al Woods. And Margus Hunt and John Simon. And Jabaal Sheard and Barkevious Mingo.

And that trade for quarterback Jacoby Brissett? Ballard won that trade, and his trading partner was Bill Belichick. Who beats Belichick in a trade? Ballard did. Beat him without cheating.

Ballard’s good, OK? And here’s a little something you need to know: Ballard knows he’s good. Knows it in the best way, coming across as quietly confident, never ever boasting – not once – but being so damn resolute that you just know he knows how good he is. Which means he trusts his instincts.

And since the day before he was hired here in January 2017, his instinct was to replace Chuck Pagano with Dave Toub.

It might not happen, as I say. When Chris Ballard was catching passes at Wisconsin in the early 1990s, his quarterback was Darrell Bevell – now the Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator. Maybe Bevell gets this job. Maybe someone else, someone from left field like Chuck Pagano in 2012, gets an interview and nails it. Dave Toub could miss his flight to Indianapolis or show up with laryngitis or trip and fall on the priceless Beatles’ drum set in Irsay’s office and be sent home.

Anything’s possible, but here’s what I’ll do as the Colts approach this major hire: I’ll give you Darrell Bevell. You can have Bevell, you can have the hoax that is Josh McDaniels, you can have the whole damn field.

My money’s on Dave Toub.

And I only bet on sure things.

Find IndyStar columnist Gregg Doyel on Twitter: @GreggDoyelStar or at facebook.com/gregg.doyel.

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