Thomas Gounley

TGOUNLEY@NEWS-LEADER.COM

On Nov. 8, the president-elect's strongest showing in Greene County came in its far southwest corner.

In the farmland west and north of the city of Republic, businessman Donald Trump garnered nearly 78 percent of the vote, compared to 17 percent for Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

The former secretary of state, meanwhile, performed best in central Springfield. At a polling place where the Phelps Grove and University Heights neighborhoods meet, Clinton won 59 percent of the vote, a margin of 27 points.

Those results, and those for Greene County as a whole, were not particularly surprising. The county remained solidly Republican, as it has been for years. Overall, Donald Trump received 59.78 percent of the votes cast for president, according to preliminary results, compared to 32.75 percent for Clinton.

On a precinct-level basis, however, there were clear variations. A News-Leader review of Greene County voting results found the following 2016 takeaways:

Trump dominated rural areas; Clinton held parts of central Springfield

The precincts Clinton won were largely north of Sunshine Street and south of Commercial Street, sandwiched between Kansas Expressway and Glenstone Avenue.

It's a densely populated area, but the geographically larger rural precincts and portions of the city farther from downtown make Greene County a sea of red when mapped.

The inner-outer divide is nothing new. But the Democratic city center shrank in 2016.

Clinton received the most votes at 11 polling places. Democrat Barack Obama won local 14 polling places in 2012 and 22 in 2008.

Precinct-level voting data is looked at closely by political parties, said Danette Proctor, chair of the Greene County Republican party.

Candidates for political office want to "put your feet to the ground where it's going to get the votes out," she said.

She pointed to the 132nd District, the only local seat in the Missouri House of Representatives held by a Democrat. Republicans will typically focus their effort on neighborhoods within the district that have more Republican voters, she said.

Skyler Johnston, executive director of the Greene County Democrats, said the party has a database it updates that allows it to see whether individual people voted or not.

"What we'll be able to do with that info is see how effective our get-out-the-vote effort was," he said.

Johnston said he'll also be looking at how the margin between the Republicans and Democrats in the presidential race compared to the margin in down-ballot races. That helps the party assess the degree to which results were determined by a candidate's message or overall likability, he said, as opposed to just their political party.

Most parts of the county shifted right, not left, in 2016

The News-Leader compared the margin between Trump and Clinton in 2016 with the margin between Republican Mitt Romney and Obama in 2012.

Across the county, 48 polling places shifted to the right in 2016. That means that — in Republican areas — Trump had a larger advantage over Clinton than Romney did over Obama four years ago. In Democratic parts of the city, it means the gap between the major parties' nominees moved in Trump's favor.

Several polling places in northwest Springfield, along with one serving Walnut Grove, were among those that saw a sizable shift to the right.

Overall, just 23 polling places shifted to the left in 2016. The phenomenon was largely seen in comparatively affluent areas — south Springfield and portions of the county just east of city limits.

A handful of precincts couldn't be analyzed on this metric due to changes made in polling places between 2012 and 2016.

So did Trump outperform Romney in Greene County? You could make a case either way.

In terms of gross vote count, Trump comes out on top. Preliminary results show he garnered 77,387 votes, compared to Romney's official 2012 haul of 76,900.

Romney, however, garnered a greater percentage of the county's votes — 60.83 percent, compared to 59.78 percent for Trump this year.

There are at least two factors behind that: lower turnout in 2012, and 2016 voters who wanted somebody else for the job.

Greene County saw a surge in third-party and write-in voting in 2016, more so than elsewhere

About one in every 13 people that visited a polling place locally on Nov. 8 said "No" to both Clinton and Trump.

About 7.5 percent of Greene County voters — compared to 5.3 percent statewide — supported one of three third-party candidates on the ballot, or opted to write in someone else.

That's nearly three times the "other" votes in 2012, when 2.6 percent of ballots avoided Obama or Romney — itself an increase from 2008.

Both Republican and Democratic-leaning precincts within the county experienced this surge. The two precincts where each candidate saw the largest margin also happened to be the two precincts that saw the greatest increase in third-party voting — up more than 500 percent from 2012 to 2016.

Libertarian Gary Johnson was the top-performing third-party candidate, with 4.41 percent of the countywide vote. Green Party nominee Jill Stein garnered 1.12 percent, while Constitution Party nominee Darrell L. Castle netted 0.51 percent.

Proctor, the Republican chair, said she wasn't expecting such a large jump in third-party voting — but isn't that surprised by it.

"They're frustrated," she said of voters. "We've got to kick into gear — our party — and perform."

Turnout was lowest in north Springfield

Polling places with the lowest voter turnout levels were almost universally located in north Springfield.

Precinct 22C — generally located east of the intersection of Division Street and National Avenue — had the lowest voter turnout in the city, with 45.43 percent. Practically the entire city north of downtown, however, wasn't that far off — less than 55 percent turnout, compared to 68.7 percent countywide.

Springfield city leaders have previously remarked on lower voter turnout as part of the Zone 1 Blitz, an effort to improve the city's northwest side. Low voter turnout, however, extends to the city's northeast quarter as well.

Voter turnout in north Springfield increased between the 2012 and 2016 elections, although in many cases not as much as the countywide average turnout improved.

Highest voter turnout on Nov. 8 was generally seen in more rural areas of the county, where support for Trump was strongest.

The Cass precinct — which covers an area between Walnut Grove and Highway 13 — had the highest turnout, with 76.65 percent of registered voters casting a ballot. Of those, 76 percent voted for Trump.