President Donald Trump’s replacement for retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy, viewed by many as the court’s swing vote, could significantly reshape the balance of the Supreme Court. Airwaves about to get nasty as Supreme Court fight gets underway Advocacy groups are racing to place ad buys and organize at the grass-roots level to sink or boost Kavanaugh's nomination.

Outside groups looking to sway senators and the larger public about Judge Brett Kavanaugh, President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court pick, say they are planning to spend more than they did during last year's fight over Justice Neil Gorsuch, pointing to the drastically higher stakes this time around.

Unlike Gorsuch, who replaced Antonin Scalia, an already conservative member, Trump’s replacement for retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy, viewed by many as the court’s swing vote, could significantly reshape the balance of the court.


Also, Republicans now control the Senate by just a single seat and Arizona Sen. John McCain has been absent for months, meaning any one senator could hold significant sway over whether Trump gets Kavanaugh confirmed.

“It’s going to be a tougher fight because you’re replacing Kennedy and not Scalia and because the margins in the Senate are tighter,” said Curt Levey, president of the Committee for Justice, a conservative legal group.

Although many groups are reluctant to detail how much they will spend on the nomination fight, the groups say they’re definitely willing to invest more for this battle. And they’ve wasted no time ramping up their campaigns.

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NARAL Pro-Choice America and the ACLU have already purchased ads asking GOP Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska to assess candidates based on their support for the landmark abortion case Roe v. Wade. NARAL spent five figures on its first ad buy, while the ACLU spent six figures.

For its part, Americans for Prosperity, the Koch-backed political advocacy group is “prepared to commit seven-figures to support a nominee in the mold of Neil Gorsuch,” according to a spokesperson.

In the days after Kennedy’s announcement, Demand Justice, a newly formed liberal group, said that it planned to spend $5 million to fight Trump’s Supreme Court pick. The money will go toward radio, television and digital ads, as well as grass-roots mobilization.

Meanwhile, the Judicial Crisis Network, a group that advocates for conservative judicial nominees and spent $10 million on the Gorsuch nomination, is prepared to match that amount and then some, according to Carrie Severino, the group’s chief counsel and policy director. Although she predicted that Trump’s nominee will be confirmed, she anticipates heavy opposition from liberal groups.

“Because the left feels so hysterical about this nomination ... they’re going to go over the top in their opposition,” she said. “I have no interest in spending money for the sake of spending money. We would only do it if we thought this nominee was going to need serious defending and that’s clearly where we are.”

Severino said that the money will be spent on television and digital ads, grass-roots efforts and building a coalition of support for the nominee. Judicial Crisis Network already spent $1 million on an ad buy after Kennedy announced his retirement and plans to particularly focus on red state Senate Democrats who may be persuadable, namely Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, who all voted for Gorsuch last year.

The group already has a $1.4 million ad buy ready for when Trump announces the nominee. The ad will air in Alabama, Indiana, North Dakota and West Virginia.

“One of the biggest things that’s going to be interesting is recognizing that this is something in a midterm year,” Severino said. “The Democrats in those red states aren’t going to be able to sit there and hope that their constituents who support President Trump ... forget by the time they go to the polls. They’ll have to think hard before they make their choice.”

Levey said his group does not plan to buy ads that focus exclusively on swing-vote senators. Instead, the group will focus on targeted advertisements. He said Committee for Justice likely is purchasing ads in the week leading up to the confirmation hearing as well as the week before the vote.

Advocacy groups are also planning to mobilize on the ground. Nan Aron, founder and president of the Alliance for Justice, a liberal group that focuses on the federal judiciary, said her organization plans to produce information and messaging on the nominee and the nomination process for activists, the Senate and the news media, as well as organize field operations in certain states. Although Aron acknowledged that the fight is likely to be more expensive, she said a bigger focus will be Alliance for Justice’s organizational strategy.

“We believe this fight can be won without the millions of dollars amassed by the right, by big business,” Aron said. “They’ll have the millions of dollars to put into a war chest, we have activists, organizations across the country, ready to fight.”

There are signs that the public is ready to engage. A spokesperson for NARAL said that in the 24 hours after Kennedy’s retirement announcement, the number of calls from NARAL members was three times that after Gorsuch’s nomination. In addition to ads and information campaigns, NARAL plans to host a “day of action” on Aug. 26.

Jesse Lee, vice president of communications at the Center for American Progress Action Fund, the advocacy wing of the progressive think tank the Center for American Progress, said the model for winning the Supreme Court nomination fight will be the battle over the repeal of the Affordable Care Act, which Republicans have repeatedly failed to accomplish, even with control over both chambers of Congress.

“I don’t think that was won with millions of dollars and TV ads,” he said.

