One of the nation's largest religious denominations could be headed for a split this weekend.

"What the United Methodist church will look like in March will likely be very different than it is today," said the Rev. Ron Robinson, a chaplain and religion professor at Wofford College, which is affiliated with the United Methodist Church. "This has the most significant potential for major division out of anything in my lifetime."

When delegates meet in St. Louis this coming weekend for a special session of the General Conference, they will hold a critical vote on whether to ordain openly gay clergy and allow individual churches to conduct same-sex marriages. The outcome will likely reshape the denomination, and could potentially tear it apart.

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"We are already having this conversation," said Bishop Ken Carter, president of the Council of Bishops for the United Methodist Church, regarding what comes next.

He said even before the vote, the denomination has already been changed: Some people have decided to stay, some have left and others are planning to do one or the other.

What's driving the split

The United Methodist church is one of the largest Christian denominations, with 12 million members internationally. In South Carolina, only Baptists are more common.

The forces pushing the church toward a split are a growing international church with traditional views on marriage and a shrinking national church more inclined to accept gay pastors and same-sex marriages.

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The international church, primarily in Africa and Asia, is relatively united on keeping and enforcing the church's current prohibitions against homosexual clergy and against homosexual marriage.

The national church, which, like other American denominations, has been losing members, is split, but significantly more supportive of expanding access to homosexual clergy and marriage, according to activists on both sides.

More than four years of trying to avoid a schism and find common ground — through referendums, votes, conferences and action plans — hasn’t helped much. There is still tremendous division in the church, said the Rev. Keith Boyette, the leader of the Wesleyan Covenant Association, a group that is urging churches to maintain the current rules against homosexual ordination and marriage.

The upcoming vote, by 864 clergy and laypeople, will determine whether the denomination will exist as it has for a half century.

Three ways to go

There are three main plans that delegates will be considering, each of which would remake the church in some way.

The One Church plan is supported by a slim majority of bishops' representatives and would let individual churches decide on LGBT issues.

Another plan would create three sub-denominations of United Methodists, with approaches ranging from permissive to restrictive on LGBT clergy and marriage. But experts said it's the least likely to pass because it would require a two-thirds vote of each of the more than 70 conferences, including South Carolina's.

The last of the major plans, the Modified Traditional plan, would call for greater enforcement of existing prohibitions against clergy who identify as LGBT and against same-sex marriages in the church.

Most bishops have remained silent on the plans, including South Carolina's Bishop L. Jonathan Holston.

At a state conference in Greenville in 2017, state church leaders used procedural methods to avoid a direct vote on a proposal to split the state from the larger United Methodist church.

In preparation for the national conference, Holston has urged South Carolina Methodists to pray every day from 2:23 p.m. to 2:26 p.m., corresponding to the dates of the Special General Conference.

What could happen

If church delegates approve the One Church plan, Boyette said that could lead to the start of a new Methodist denomination.

He declined to talk specifics, but said some possibilities have been discussed, and members of his group — which drew 1,800 people, primarily pastors, at a meeting last year — will meet in St. Louis immediately after the major vote to decide their way forward.

"Ultimately, that could lead to the formation of a new Methodist denomination, but there has been no determination that’s going to occur," Boyette said. "It’s completely speculation at this point."

Robinson said in talking to students at Wofford and his fellow ministers, there's a definite sense of "impending something."

"There’s hope and there’s the fear of a real tragedy," he said. "But we’ll find a way to cope."

The United Methodist Church is relatively new — it was founded on April 23, 1968, when the Evangelical United Bretheren Church and the Methodist Church were joined. But its roots trace back to the broader Methodist and Protestant movements of the 1700s.

Loosely enforced rules

The church currently prohibits homosexual clergy and marriages, but often does not enforce those rules, Boyette said.

He said the rules are laid out in the church's Book of Discipline and are based on Biblical verses that describe marriage as between one man and one woman.

"I would assert that the church is already in schism," Boyette said. "When you have parts of the church that affirmatively say, we will not abide by the Book of Discipline of the United Methodist church, that creates a schism."

Bishop Karen Oliveto, for example, who is openly gay, was ordained as a bishop in 2016. Her jurisdiction includes Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Utah and parts of Idaho.

Several pastors also have conducted same-sex marriages or been married themselves in the United Methodist church, including the Rev. Jeff Mullinix, of Maynard Avenue United Methodist in Columbus, Ohio.

He has been a United Methodist pastor for about a decade and before that was a Southern Baptist pastor and attended Bob Jones University. His husband also worked at Bob Jones for 18 years.

Mullinix said he found acceptance in the United Methodist church, and was drawn by their social justice positions. After he and his husband were married in December 2016, a member of his congregation reported the union to United Methodist officials in Ohio, and Mullinix was encouraged to go to a different church.

He said he is happy at his new church, and assumes the official complaint is pending until the outcome of the upcoming vote is known.

Like many gay people he's talked to in the broader United Methodist church, Mullinix said he feels a bit in limbo right now.

He said he has no plans to leave the church, no matter what happens this month. He knows of five pastors in his Ohio region who are openly gay, two of whom are married.

Mullinix said his relationship wasn't a secret to his congregation before his marriage.

"At this point in our lives, we had to make a decision — is this something worth fighting for, taking a stance," Mullinix said. "I’m not a big political person when it comes to protesting and things like that. It was about being able to live our lives, with the person you love. For us, it was worth the risk."

His new congregation has no problems with his relationship, Mullinix said.

"It's been almost two years without hearing anything else about the complaint," he said. "I'm cautiously optimistic that this will be a positive thing coming up in February. My hope would be it would lead the UMC to strengthening the church and having no one excluded. But I would be lying if I didn't say that deep down there’s probably some underlying concern."

What's at stake

Should a split occur, a number of complications could ensue.

► In the United Methodist Church, the buildings are owned by the broader church, not the congregation. So congregations that opt to leave the church could be forced to find a new building for worship.

► The church also maintains dozens of recreational camps, hospitals and schools, along with universities. Church leaders, including Carter, said it is not clear how the vote would change the extensive holdings and organizations supported by the United Methodist Church.

► The church's main rule book, the Book of Discipline, would need to be updated.

► Christ United in Myrtle Beach has already sent a letter to the state denomination, saying that although it does not want to be a part of the conference, it won't condone or condemn anyone for their views on the LGBT issues. The church leaders, who did not respond to requests for comment, said in the letter they are aware the United Methodist Church could take their building. But, they wrote, the congregation was able to grow before and would be able to do so again if it is compelled to leave.

A decision allowing individual churches to hold same-sex marriages could also open up thousands of new wedding venues, as there are more than 31,000 Methodist churches in America. It may be more of a theoretical issue, though, since many denominations already allow same-sex marriages and there are many non-religious venues for weddings.

Still, it could make a difference to existing Methodist couples and could encourage people to come to or stay in the United Methodist church, said Nancy Ammerman, professor of sociology of religion at Boston University.

What it means locally

For some local parishoners, the approaching vote brings anxiety.

Fran Sofley, chair of the finance committee at Trinity United Methodist Church in Anderson, said individual United Methodist churches pay apportionments that support the larger state and national churches. The funds also go to broader charities, hospitals, schools and other efforts.

If larger churches in South Carolina and beyond chose to withdraw from the greater United Methodist Church, it could mean Trinity and other remaining churches have to pay higher apportionments, Sofley said.

That could force Trinity to cut staff, and would leave fewer dollars available for statewide disaster relief efforts and other assistance, she said.

But those are the practical concerns.

On a personal level, Sofley, like many others on either side of the church's divide, fears alienating and hurting people she's sat next to in the pews for decades.

"A lot of people will be hurt on both sides," she said. "It will be difficult and upsetting for years until people find themselves at home again. And that's very sad."

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