NEW DELHI: The monsoon fell below expectations in July, which ended with a countrywide rain shortfall of 6%, but late showers in the paddy belts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal have improved the overall rainfall distribution.With the monsoon becoming inactive in central and south India, the all-India rainfall deficit grew in the past six days (July 25) from 2% to 6%. However, during the same period, the rain shortfall reduced sharply from 42% to 19% in UP, 46% to 23% in Bihar and 35% to 24% in Jharkhand.Large rain deficits in these states, and West Bengal, have been the main reason for sluggish kharif sowing this year. According to the latest figures released last Friday, paddy sowing was nearly 12% less than the normal for the corresponding period. This was mainly on account of depressed sowing in these four states, where the area under paddy was nearly 27 lakh hectares below the normal for the same period.With the window for sowing of paddy fast shrinking, how much the late surge in rainfall in these states improves sowing figures remains to be seen. Showers are expected to continue in east UP, Bihar and Jharkhand for the next few days.Rains have also picked up over the past week in the northeast, another region where the monsoon shortfall has been high.“The late rains in UP and the east and northeast region has made July rainfall more or less well distributed across the country,” said D Sivananda Pai, the India Meteorological Department ’s lead monsoon forecaster.IMD had forecast 1% above normal rains in July. While the actual figure fell short of the forecast, rainfall during the month has been good in most parts of central, south and northwest India, with the exception of UP and Rayalseema.Uncertainty, however, continues over monsoon’s performance in the final months of the season, August and September. August is likely to begin with the monsoon in a weak phase, with the trough close to the Himalayas — a position that usually brings showers in the western Himalayan states and not much in the northern plains.Fears continue over an evolving El Nino, an abnormal warming the east equatorial Pacific waters that usually has negative spinoffs for the southwest monsoon in India. “If the Pacific continues to warm, it could affect the monsoon in September. However, there’s some possibility of a low pressure forming the Bay of Bengal in the next four-five days. If that happens, and the monsoon revives in central India in the first week of August, the formation of the El Nino may get delayed,” Pai said.