Penn State at Ohio State

Betting Line: Ohio State -18.5

Over/Under: 56.5

Penn State got a bit of bit of a scare last week against Indiana but ultimately won 34-27. The Nittany Lions did pretty well defending the run as they held Indiana to less than three yards per carry. On Saturday, Penn State will be going against one of the best running backs in the country in Ohio State’s JK Dobbins. Dobbins has run for 1,289 yards this season and is very tough to bring down. This means that the defense, especially the front seven, will need to make strong tackles and not put themselves in a position where they could be easily trucked or stiff armed. The Nittany Lions will also be going against a strong dual threat quarterback in Ohio State’s Justin Fields. This means that containing him and preventing his ability to scramble will be key. I expect Penn State to often use a quarterback spy, especially on obvious passing downs. Defensive ends Yetur Gross-Matos and Shaka Toney will need to do well in containing the outside and getting a good pass rush on Fields. Linebacker Micah Parsons was named a semifinalist for the Walter Camp Player of the Year Award and he will need to play like it on Saturday. Parsons as well as linebackers Cam Brown and Jan Johnson need to make quick reads and do well in pursuit. On offense, the Nittany Lions will need to account for Chase Young, Ohio State’s star defensive end. Offensive tackles Will Fries and Rasheed Walker can not let Young dominate them up front. This will also be beneficial to the development of the run game for Penn State. Journey Brown looks line the new lead back and he will need to have a solid performance in order to keep things balanced offensively. Tight end Pat Freiermuth has been a very good security blanket for quarterback Sean Clifford and if he can continue that, it will be very helpful. Ohio State’s defense is chock full of elite athletes but receiver KJ Hamler might have the wheels to keep them on their toes. I think Penn State should try to get Hamler to break loose on a deep route early and try to establish some momentum.

Ohio State won 56-21 last week but that should likely be negated by the fact that they played Big 10 laughingstock Rutgers. Still, I think the Buckeyes are the best and most complete team in the country. Ohio State should really be in good spirits for this game as defensive end Chase Young returns from his two game suspension (which was dumb) at the perfect time. Young is probably the best player in the country and will undoubtedly be a top five draft pick come April. I expect him to do quite well this game and for fellow defensive end Tyeke Smith to do well with all the attention Penn State will likely be putting on Young. Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford is solid but do not think he will do too well if pressured. Another key to the game Ohio State’s defense will be having solid coverage against Penn State’s KJ Hamler. Hamler is a speedy receiver and can give opposing defenses problems if he is not covered. The good news for Ohio State is that they have a cornerback in Jeffery Okudah who will likely be a top 10 draft pick in the spring and is definitely good enough to contain Hamler. On offense, I think the Buckeyes need to get a good game out of their offensive line. Penn State has an elite defensive front and winning the battle in the trenches will essentially guarantee victory for Ohio State. JK Dobbins is a very good running back and if he can fight through tackles like he typically can, it will also be very beneficial to the offense. Quarterback Justin Fields has very impressive numbers this season but there are still questions as to how he can handle high pressure situations. Hopefully, the Buckeyes never have to encounter a situation like that, but if they do Fields needs to be ready.

Prediction:

Penn State keeps it close for a bit before Ohio State pulls away and wins 35-16.

Michigan at Indiana

Betting Line: Indiana +9

Over/Under: 53.5

Michigan got off to a slow start against rival Michigan State but eventually pulled together to win 44-10. Quarterback Shea Patterson had one of his best games in a Michigan uniform as he completed 24/33 passes for 384 yards and four touchdowns. Patterson could have a tougher time this game as Ronnie Bell, his number one target as of late, is listed as questionable for the game due to what is just being described as a lower body injury. Even if Bell plays, he will be limited. This means the likes of Nico Collins, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Tarik Black need to step up as targets. The Wolverines also need to develop a run game as they failed to do so last week. Zach Charbonnet will be looked to at running back and if he does well, it can take some of the heat off of Patterson and also force Indiana to play balanced on defense. Defensively, Michigan will be going against a solid passing attack from Indiana and need to be stout in pass coverage. Thankfully for Michigan, Lavert Hill and Josh Ambry make up a strong duo at cornerback. I think another way to hinder Indiana’s passing attack will be to get a good pass rush which they should with defensive end Kwity Paye and linebacker Josh Uche. Paye leads the team in tackles for loss as a solid playmaker while Uche is a very good athlete at inside linebacker and leads the team in sacks. I think getting after the quarterback will be largely beneficial for the Wolverines.

Indiana played a nice game but ultimately came up short against Penn State as they lost 34-27. The Hoosiers were kept in the game largely because quarterback Peyton Ramsey had a very good game. Ramsey completed 31/41 passes for 371 yards. Ty Fryfogle had a big game at receiver with 131 receiving yards. It is uncertain as to whether Whop Philyor, Indiana’s lead receiver on the season, will play after suffering a concussion last week. This means Fryfogle and tight end Peyton Hendershot need to be ready to step up. Stevie Scott has been a solid player at running back this season but did not have the best game against Penn State. He will need to improve in this game if the Hoosiers want to do well. On defense, I think Indiana needs to try and force turnovers. Michigan has improved on it this season, but they have been a bit turnover happy at times. The Hoosiers lost the turnover battle against Penn State and I believe that was a major factor in their loss. I think that if Indiana can just create big plays losses on defense, it will be huge for momentum. I believe the Hoosiers need to be aggressive and try to create a bit of chaos as I am not sure how Michigan can handle it.

Prediction:

Indiana gives Michigan a scare but the Wolverines ultimately prevail 28-20.

Texas A&M at Georgia

Betting Line: Georgia -13

Over/Under: 44.5

Texas A&M had a nice win over South Carolina last week as they improved to 7-3 on the season and had their fourth straight win. A big reason for the strong showings recently by the Aggies (besides not having to play three top 10 teams) is that they have started to find their footing in the run game. Against South Carolina, Cordarrian Richardson and Isaiah Spiller both went over 125 rushing yards. Spiller, a true freshman, has really stepped it up this season after lead back Jashaun Corbin went down with a hamstring injury early in the season. The Aggies will be playing against a defense that only allowed their first rushing touchdown last week, so the degree of difficulty is ramped up quite a bit. Quarterback Kellen Mond is a good player, but when Texas A&M forced him to do everything, things do not turn out to well. I think if Spiller can get going, it will Mond to develop the passing game with a bit more ease. On defense, I think Texas A&M needs to play a bit more aggressively. Georgia’s Jake Fromm is a good quarterback but I do not think he can beat a team by taking deep shots down the field. I also think that the Aggies need to play aggressively to stop Georgia running back D’Andre Swift. Swift is a very physical runner that can maintain balance through contact well. If the Aggies want to slow him down, they need to bring multiple guys at him. This will also be difficult as Georgia might have the best offensive line in the country. I think Justin Madubuike is a very good defensive tackle and he will be tested in this game. If the Aggies want to win, he will need to pass that test. Buddy Johnson and Anthony shines lead a strong linebacking corps and also need to do well in pursuit of the ball.

Georgia brought home another win last week as they beat Auburn 24-17. The Bulldogs were led by a strong defensive showing anywhere consistently on offense. While Georgia has become notorious this season for allowing their first rushing touchdown only last week, I think defending the pass will be most important for this game. Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond has been the leader to their offense for most of the season and shutting him down will go a long way. This whole process entails not letting him scramble on pass plays and doing well in pass coverage. I think Georgia is capable of both. On offense, I think the Bulldogs can really rely on a ground and pound game with their very talented offensive line and running back D’Andre Swift. Texas A&M has a solid defensive front but Georgia’s offensive line is probably the best in the country. If the offensive line can continue to win along the point of attack, then their offense will be in good standing. Quarterback Jake Fromm also needs to be able to make some bigger throws and keep the Aggies on their toes defensively. I think Georgia should be able to have great success through play action quite a bit for this game.

Prediction:

Georgia makes it a physical game and wins 28-14.

Texas at Baylor

Betting Line: Baylor -6

Over/Under: 58.5

Texas had a pretty tough loss last week as Iowa State hit a field goal to win as time expired after Texas erased a 13 point deficit in the fourth quarter. Texas’s offense really struggled to move the ball during this game as they averaged just 2.1 yards per rushing attempt during the game. Their lack of a run game made it to where a ton of pressure was put on quarterback Sam Ehlinger. Ehlinger is a very good quarterback but he can not carry an offense on his own during a big game like this. This means the offensive line will need to hold up in both run blocking and pass protection. This also means Keaontay Ingram needs to have some consistency at running back. Receivers Collin Johnson and Brennan Eagles are both listed as questionable for the game and their spots need to be filled in well if they do not play. Devin Duvernay will have a pretty heavy weight put on his shoulders. Duvernay and Malcolm Epps will be key players for this game if Johnson and Eagles are both out. On defense, Texas needs to end drives quickly. The Longhorns allowed Iowa State to prolong their drives on multiple occasions because of bad penalties. This is mostly directed at the secondary which can not get outmuscled by Baylor’s larger receivers. Jalen Green has not performed as well as he did at the beginning of the season since he has come back from injury and he will need to try and have a game reminiscent of his early season form. Safeties Caden Sterns and Brandon Jones need to provide protection over the top whenever possible. I think getting a good pass rush with linebackers Joseph Ossai and Juwan Mitchell will also be quite beneficial as Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer can be a bit mistake prone at times and I think getting a good rush on him can lead to that.

Baylor had a pretty crushing loss last week as they blew a 28-3 second quarter lead before losing to Oklahoma 34-31. Baylor’s biggest issue in the loss was their stagnation on offense in the second half. The Bears can not have similar things happen against Texas. I think establishing the run game will be very beneficial for them especially since they have three pretty capable backs in JaMycal Hasty, John Lovett, and Trestan Ebner. I think letting one or more of those three establish themselves as a rushing threat can help balance out the offense and take some pressure off of quarterback Charlie Brewer, as he seemingly had the weight of the whole offense on his shoulders against Oklahoma. Receiver Denzel Mims will probably play but he is battling what Baylor is just describing as an upper body injury. This means that Tyquan Thornton and Josh Fleeks need to be ready to make plays when called upon. On defense, Baylor needs to hold up well against Texas’s bigger possession receivers. If Baylor gets outmuscled consistently, it will not be easy for them on this side of the ball. I think the Bears should try to get a good pass rush and mess with Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger’s decision making process. Ehlinger is a very good quarterback but he can often make bad passes if forced to think quickly. The main man for the job will be linebacker James Lynch who leads the team with 12.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. Forcing Texas to thrive in chaos will likely yield favorable results for Baylor if they ca. Pull it off.

Prediction:

Baylor bounces back well and wins 28-23. Also my Longhorns are 4-0 against the spread the last four times I predicted them to lose and to quote Michael Scott, I am not superstitious but I am a little stitious.

Oregon State at Washington State

Betting Line: Washington State -10.5

Over/Under: 76.5

Oregon State had a very nice win last week as they took down Arizona State 35-34 after stopping a potentially game winning two point conversion with 1:40 left to play. Oregon State stayed in that game because their offense just continued to march the ball down the field. This game should be no different for the Beavers if they expect to win. Running back Jermar Jefferson has taken a bit of a step back from his sensational freshman season, but that has just left more room for Artavis Pierce. This backfield duo is a very strong one. Quarterback Jake Luton has done quite well this season and Saturday needs to be no different. Receiver Isaiah Hodgins is one of the best in the country and he will need to maintain his job as the security blanket in the passing game. On defense, the Beavers need to be able to cover the whole field. Washington State fries to spread things out as much as possible in their offense which means they probably need to stay strong in pass coverage and not get outrun by Washington State’s receivers. I also think that Oregon State should be able to get a good pass rush as Washington State quarterback Anthony Gordon has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long. If Oregon State can prevent the air raid offense from throwing off their game plan, they should be fine.

Washington State has a nice win last week as they beat Stanford for the fourth season in a row in a dominant 49-22 victory. The Cougars really hit their stride through the air this game as Anthony Gordon threw for 520 yards. For this game, Gordon needs to limit his mistakes. He often holds onto the hall too long and he can play a bit a of a gunslinger role. I think Gordon needs to be smart in this game and not try to force bad passes just to make a big play. Max Borghi had a very good day at running back last week and I think he should be able to get solid yardage on the ground and as a pass catcher. Defensively, I think the Cougars can not get thrown on. Oregon State receiver Isaiah Hodgins is an elite talent. Washington State can not let him take over this game. Washington State cornerbacks George Hicks and Marcus Strong will be key players Saturday night because of that. I also think it would be a good idea to get a good pass rush. Oregon State quarterback Jake Luton has very nice arm talent, but he is a bit of a statue in the pocket. If he gets rushed, I think it could put him in a bad spot.

Prediction:

Washington State secures bowl eligibility with a 38-31 win.

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Last week, I was 2-4 against the spread. I am 39-33-3 against the spread this season.

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