by Aaron Schatz

Another big victory helps the Los Angeles Rams increase their lead on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings this week. The Rams move up to the No. 1 spot in defense this week, making them our top team for both defense and special teams. They are now our Super Bowl favorite, winning it in one out of every six simulations (16.7 percent). The Saints move into the No. 2 spot after their huge 47-10 win over Buffalo, replacing the Pittsburgh Steelers, who drop to No. 4 after barely beating Indianapolis. Philadelphia remains at No. 3 after a bye week.

The top of the DVOA ratings shows a very strong dichotomy between the two conferences this season. The NFC has the top three teams and four of the top five. If we go deeper, the NFC has nine of the top 13 teams. If we look at weighted DVOA, it's eight of the top 11 teams, since Kansas City is eighth in full-season DVOA but drops to 12th in weighted DVOA. Of course, you don't need DVOA to know how imbalanced the conferences are this year. There are ten teams with winning records in the NFC and only six teams with winning records in the AFC.

As far as those AFC teams, this was a big week for the New England Patriots, who finally moved into the top ten where conventional wisdom says they belong. Their offense is now over 30%, the special teams have risen to fifth in the league, and the defense moves up another spot to No. 30! The Patriots had one of their better defensive games this week, but let's be honest, holding down Brock Osweiler when his team is constantly blowing field position with special teams flubs is not too difficult.

Of course, it was only two weeks ago that we actually had Buffalo higher than the Patriots in DVOA. At that point, Buffalo was tenth and the Patriots were 13th. After they got run over by the Saints, Buffalo is now 21st with the Patriots up to seventh.

It seems like we do this every year with these two teams. I went back and looked, and while it isn't a regular occurance every single year, there really is a strong trend for the Patriots to get better later in the season while the Bills tend to start strong and then fall apart. I'm not sure why this trend should exist over the last few years, when Buffalo has had multiple front office setups and multiple head coaches, but it does.

I picked Week 6 as the week to measure since that was when this year's Bills had their bye week. Check out the trends for these two teams. First, here's Buffalo, which has seen its DVOA drop after Week 6 in four of the last six seasons. This year probably will make it five of seven.

Buffalo Bills DVOA, Week 6 vs. Final, 2011-2016 After Week 6 End of Season Year W-L DVOA Rank W-L DVOA Rank 2011 4-2 19.2% 4 6-10 -9.7% 23 2012 3-3 -21.0% 27 6-10 -12.1% 23 2013 2-4 4.2% 14 6-10 -3.3% 18 2014 3-3 0.2% 18 9-7 10.5% 9 2015 3-3 13.4% 8 8-8 2.7% 12 2016 4-2 22.6% 3 7-9 1.0% 17 AVG -- 6.4% 12.3 -- -1.8% 17.0

Now, here are the Patriots, who have seen their DVOA rise after Week 6 every year in the past six except for 2015.

New England Patriots DVOA, Week 6 vs. Final, 2011-2016 After Week 6 End of Season Year W-L DVOA Rank W-L DVOA Rank 2011 5-1 18.0% 6 13-3 22.8% 3 2012 3-3 25.1% 6 12-4 34.9% 3 2013 5-1 8.8% 13 12-4 18.9% 5 2014 4-2 9.4% 11 12-4 22.1% 4 2015 5-0 44.4% 2 12-4 22.6% 6 2016 5-1 13.5% 7 14-2 24.9% 1 AVG -- 19.9% 7.5 -- 24.4% 3.7

I went and ran this same set of numbers for every team, looking at the last six seasons. Yes, that's a totally arbitary set of years, but for the moment, we're just having fun with this.

Buffalo had the highest average change in DVOA rank when we compare Week 6 to final DVOA from 2011-2016. The New York Jets also had a strong pattern of late-season decline, especially since you can't go any lower than 32nd:

New York Jets DVOA, Week 6 vs. Final, 2011-2016 After Week 6 End of Season Year W-L DVOA Rank W-L DVOA Rank 2011 3-3 18.6% 5 8-8 13.5% 10 2012 3-3 -2.4% 17 6-10 -18.0% 27 2013 3-3 -2.7% 18 8-8 -7.7% 24 2014 1-5 -21.0% 28 4-12 -15.5% 27 2015 4-1 26.9% 5 10-6 12.4% 9 2016 1-5 -36.1% 32 5-11 -32.4% 32 AVG -- -2.8% 17.5 -- -7.9% 21.5

Atlanta also had a strong decline trend for second halves, but that's essentially just a three-year trend from their three years in the postseason wilderness from 2013 to 2015. Last year, the Falcons were sixth in DVOA after Week 6 but ended the year third. The Packers have a high average drop, but that's pretty much all from the year Aaron Rodgers got injured at midseason. (After this year, that "trend" will be even worse.)

On the other side, one team more than any other team -- including the Patriots -- has a strong recent history of improving in the second half of the season. Some of this was early-season suspensions or injuries to the quarterback, of course. This team has dropped in the DVOA ratings since Week 6 of this season, but they also get to play five of their final seven games at home this year. Hello, Pittsburgh Steelers.

Pittsburgh Steelers DVOA, Week 6 vs. Final, 2011-2016 After Week 6 End of Season Year W-L DVOA Rank W-L DVOA Rank 2011 4-2 9.8% 10 12-4 22.6% 4 2012 2-3 -10.4% 21 8-8 -1.2% 18 2013 1-4 -6.2% 21 8-8 0.9% 15 2014 3-3 -1.5% 20 11-5 12.1% 8 2015 4-2 20.9% 6 10-6 21.3% 7 2016 4-2 8.3% 12 11-5 17.1% 4 AVG -- 3.5% 15.0 -- 12.1% 9.3

Other teams with a similar trend include Carolina (except it is mostly 2011 and 2012, hooray for my arbitary endpoints) and Houston (which is not happening this year).

Of course, the proper way to look at this would be to look at it without arbitary endpoints, concentrating instead on teams that have had consistency at the head coach position. That's a project for another time, but I looked at a few well-tenured head coaches quickly.

In 11 of 17 seasons since Bill Belichick took over, New England has ended the season with a higher DVOA than it had after Week 6. If we include this season, it will be eight out of the last ten. 2009 and 2015 are the exceptions.

I took Andy Reid all the way back to the start of his time with the Eagles. From 1999 to 2012, the Eagles had a lower DVOA at the end of the season compared to Week 6 in nine out of 14 seasons. One season was basically the same. Only four seasons saw DVOA go up, and only two seasons by more than 3.0%: 2003 (from -3.9% to 19.6%) and 2011 (from 1.8% to 13.5%). However, the Chiefs have increased their DVOA in the second half of the season in three of Reid's four years there.

The Marvin Lewis Bengals have ended the season with a higher DVOA compared to Week 6 in eight out of 14 seasons, plus two of the six declines were really tiny. However, the Bengals have only gotten better in the second half twice in the last six seasons (2012 and 2016).

The Sean Payton Saints don't have a strong trend: four seasons they got better, four seasons they got worse, two were about the same, and one Payton was suspended.

Results for John Harbaugh's Ravens are also mixed: four seasons up, four seasons down, one about the same.

The only clear trend for Mike McCarthy whether we look at six years or all 11 years: "Aaron Rodgers getting injured is bad."

In Mike Tomlin's first season with Pittsburgh, the Steelers ranked fourth with 33.6% DVOA after Week 6 but were sixth at 19.4% DVOA by the end of the season. In every season since then, nine straight seasons from 2008 to 2016, Pittsburgh's DVOA has been higher at the end of the season than it was after Week 6.

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Once again this season, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 18. This year, our content for Madden Ultimate Team on consoles comes monthly, while our content for Madden Mobile comes weekly. Come back to each Tuesday's DVOA commentary article for a list of players who stood out during the previous weekend's games. Those players will get special Madden Mobile items branded as "Powerline, powered by Football Outsiders," beginning at 11am Eastern on Friday.

DE Adrian Clayborn, ATL (HERO): 6 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, fumble recovery.

6 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, fumble recovery. HB Rex Burkhead, NE: Third among RB in DYAR for Week 10 (10 carries for 36 yards against NFL's best run defense; 27 receiving yards, TD).

Third among RB in DYAR for Week 10 (10 carries for 36 yards against NFL's best run defense; 27 receiving yards, TD). LB Lavonte David, TB: Six defeats, including two run TFL, two run stuff on third down, and two tackles short of sticks on third-down receptions.

Six defeats, including two run TFL, two run stuff on third down, and two tackles short of sticks on third-down receptions. CB Darryl Roberts, NYJ: Led all defenders with 8 successful Week 10 plays, including interception and two tackles to prevent third-down conversions.

Led all defenders with 8 successful Week 10 plays, including interception and two tackles to prevent third-down conversions. G Larry Warford, NO: Helped block for 294 rushing yards by Saints RB, with no sacks allowed.

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All stats pages should now be updated through Week 10, including snap counts, playoff odds, and the FO Premium DVOA database.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 10 weeks of 2017, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As of this week, all opponent adjustments are at full strength.

WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEI.

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 LARM 37.1% 1 38.4% 1 7-2 10.1% 11 -19.1% 1 7.8% 1 2 NO 32.1% 5 35.5% 2 7-2 22.1% 2 -13.3% 5 -3.4% 25 3 PHI 29.0% 3 30.3% 3 8-1 13.9% 5 -9.6% 8 5.5% 6 4 PIT 26.8% 2 25.3% 4 7-2 13.1% 6 -15.6% 4 -1.9% 21 5 MIN 24.1% 6 24.1% 5 7-2 13.1% 7 -8.9% 9 2.1% 14 6 JAC 17.9% 4 19.4% 6 6-3 4.8% 12 -18.2% 2 -5.2% 26 7 NE 16.1% 13 17.7% 7 7-2 30.3% 1 20.4% 30 6.1% 5 8 KC 14.8% 7 10.6% 12 6-3 19.7% 3 11.7% 26 6.7% 4 9 CAR 13.6% 14 13.0% 8 7-3 -1.6% 20 -11.7% 6 3.5% 11 10 DET 12.5% 11 10.8% 11 5-4 -1.7% 21 -6.9% 11 7.3% 2 11 SEA 10.9% 9 12.5% 9 6-3 0.9% 14 -10.3% 7 -0.3% 19 12 GB 10.4% 15 10.5% 13 5-4 11.9% 9 1.9% 18 0.4% 15 13 DAL 9.0% 8 11.4% 10 5-4 12.1% 8 6.8% 22 3.7% 10 14 BAL 8.4% 10 5.8% 14 4-5 -15.8% 27 -17.3% 3 6.9% 3 15 WAS 6.5% 16 4.9% 15 4-5 4.4% 13 -5.4% 13 -3.2% 24 16 ATL 2.6% 19 1.4% 17 5-4 10.2% 10 7.7% 24 0.0% 18 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEI.

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 HOU 2.2% 12 2.4% 16 3-6 -0.7% 17 -5.1% 15 -2.2% 22 18 LACH -4.0% 21 -3.2% 18 3-6 0.2% 15 -5.3% 14 -9.5% 31 19 TEN -5.2% 18 -7.8% 20 6-3 -0.2% 16 7.2% 23 2.2% 13 20 OAK -6.5% 20 -7.9% 21 4-5 15.0% 4 24.0% 32 2.5% 12 21 BUF -6.6% 17 -8.3% 22 5-4 -8.6% 22 2.7% 20 4.6% 7 22 CIN -8.9% 23 -7.6% 19 3-6 -13.5% 24 -5.0% 16 -0.4% 20 23 TB -17.1% 25 -18.7% 26 3-6 -1.6% 19 13.1% 28 -2.4% 23 24 DEN -17.6% 22 -20.7% 27 3-6 -14.5% 25 -6.9% 12 -9.9% 32 25 CHI -18.4% 26 -16.8% 23 3-6 -19.1% 30 -7.3% 10 -6.6% 28 26 ARI -18.7% 27 -18.0% 25 4-5 -12.7% 23 -2.1% 17 -8.0% 29 27 NYJ -20.2% 24 -17.4% 24 4-6 -18.1% 29 2.5% 19 0.4% 16 28 SF -24.6% 29 -24.2% 28 1-9 -16.4% 28 12.2% 27 4.0% 8 29 NYG -26.9% 28 -26.5% 30 1-8 -1.2% 18 16.7% 29 -9.0% 30 30 IND -28.1% 30 -25.4% 29 3-7 -22.1% 31 9.9% 25 3.9% 9 31 CLE -32.2% 32 -30.6% 31 0-9 -23.2% 32 3.1% 21 -5.8% 27 32 MIA -35.2% 31 -35.9% 32 4-5 -14.6% 26 20.6% 31 0.1% 17

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).