a, Raw unconstrained (dashed blue line, blue shading) and observationally informed (solid red line, red shading) projections of twenty-first-century GMSAT based on the nine energy-budget predictor fields used simultaneously for the ΔT 2090-RCP2.6 predictand. The yellow line corresponds to observations from the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset43. b–d, As in a but for the ΔT 2090-RCP4.5 , ΔT 2090-RCP6.0 , and ΔT 2090-RCP8.5 predictands, respectively. e, Box and whisker plots for the raw and observationally informed distributions of equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO 2 . See Methods for more details. Time series are filtered44.

PowerPoint slide

Source data