The political blame-game is in full swing over who is at fault for the current flooding crisis. But ministers debating local dredging operations in Somerset is a sideshow.

It will be a miracle if the winter of 2013-14 does not go down as the wettest on record – and frankly, it is difficult to see what could have been done to prevent massive disruption given the rainfall. But why is this happening?

The immediate answer is that the UK is “stuck” in a weather pattern – a common feature of our climate. But what is uncommon is the exceptional intensity of the rain and waves.

Download the new Independent Premium app Sharing the full story, not just the headlines

There is a perfect so-called “storm factory” in the Atlantic caused by warm, moist air from the tropics coming up unusually close to the very cold polar air. The jet stream is then acting as a conveyor belt, continually firing these violent weather systems eastwards at us.

The more difficult question is: to what extent is this is down to climate change? On that, the jury is still out.

The latest UN climate report last year was clear that man-made activities over the past 100 years are causing unprecedented climate change. Global temperatures have increased, Arctic sea ice is melting, sea levels are rising and the oceans are getting warmer.

The policymakers asked scientists for consensus and they have it – leaving climate change for future generations to deal with is a phenomenally high-risk option.

Scientists cannot attribute individual weather events to climate change – but coming hot on the heels of major floods in 2007 and 2012, there could well be a link.

We have long been exposed to risk from flooding, but climate change is loading the dice.

Shape Created with Sketch. Flooding in England Show all 20 left Created with Sketch. right Created with Sketch. Shape Created with Sketch. Flooding in England 1/20 Flooding in Shepperton The Three Horseshoes Pub in Shepperton. Properties along the Thames Valley were affected by power cuts as the river burst its banks Charlie Forgham-Bailey 2/20 Flooding in Shepperton People wade through floodwaters in Thames Meadow, near Shepperton 3/20 Flooding in Shepperton Sandbags to stop flooding at the Warren Lodge Hotel in Shepperton Charlie Forgham-Bailey 4/20 Flooding in Shepperton A Land Rover drives along a flooded street in Shepperton Getty Images 5/20 Flooding in Shepperton Dr James Andrews was stranded in his home without electricity since Sunday, but he was rescued yesterday by soldiers Charlie Forgham-Bailey 6/20 Flooding in Shepperton Soldiers from the Royal Engineers pull a boat through floodwaters in Thames Meadow, near Shepperton 7/20 Flooding in Shepperton Many residents' homes in Shepperton are now only accessible by boat. 8/20 Flooding in Bridgwater Water surrounds flooded propeties in the village of Moorland on the Somerset Levels near Bridgwater Getty Images 9/20 Flooding in Chertsey A resident wades through the floodwater that has swept into Chertsey, which lies just west of London Getty Images 10/20 Flooding in Wraysbury Firefighters driving through flooding in Wraysbury, Berkshire 11/20 Flooding in Wraysbury In the normally tranquil village of Wraysbury, residents have rallied round after houses were swamped by floods 12/20 Flooding in Wraysbury Services personnel assist in the evacuation of a family from their home in Wraysbury 13/20 Flooding in Wraysbury Members of Royal Berkshire Fire & Rescue squad evacuate a family Getty Images 14/20 Flooding in Wraysbury Floodwater reaches a children's playground in Wraysbury Getty Images 15/20 Flooding in Wraysbury Labour party leader Ed Miliband talks with resident Peter Horner 16/20 Flooding in Wraysbury A member of the 1st Battalion of the Royal Regiment of Fusiliers leads his vehicle through flood water in Wraysbury Getty Images 17/20 Flooding in Worcester The Severn View Hotel in Worcester surrounded by flood water 18/20 Flooding in Worcester Swans swimming through a flooded car park at Worcester Racecourse 19/20 Flooding in Datchet Residents carry sandbags to protect their property from the floods, in the centre of the village of Datchet 20/20 Flooding in Datchet A man is pulled in a kayak through a flooded street in the village of Datchet 1/20 Flooding in Shepperton The Three Horseshoes Pub in Shepperton. Properties along the Thames Valley were affected by power cuts as the river burst its banks Charlie Forgham-Bailey 2/20 Flooding in Shepperton People wade through floodwaters in Thames Meadow, near Shepperton 3/20 Flooding in Shepperton Sandbags to stop flooding at the Warren Lodge Hotel in Shepperton Charlie Forgham-Bailey 4/20 Flooding in Shepperton A Land Rover drives along a flooded street in Shepperton Getty Images 5/20 Flooding in Shepperton Dr James Andrews was stranded in his home without electricity since Sunday, but he was rescued yesterday by soldiers Charlie Forgham-Bailey 6/20 Flooding in Shepperton Soldiers from the Royal Engineers pull a boat through floodwaters in Thames Meadow, near Shepperton 7/20 Flooding in Shepperton Many residents' homes in Shepperton are now only accessible by boat. 8/20 Flooding in Bridgwater Water surrounds flooded propeties in the village of Moorland on the Somerset Levels near Bridgwater Getty Images 9/20 Flooding in Chertsey A resident wades through the floodwater that has swept into Chertsey, which lies just west of London Getty Images 10/20 Flooding in Wraysbury Firefighters driving through flooding in Wraysbury, Berkshire 11/20 Flooding in Wraysbury In the normally tranquil village of Wraysbury, residents have rallied round after houses were swamped by floods 12/20 Flooding in Wraysbury Services personnel assist in the evacuation of a family from their home in Wraysbury 13/20 Flooding in Wraysbury Members of Royal Berkshire Fire & Rescue squad evacuate a family Getty Images 14/20 Flooding in Wraysbury Floodwater reaches a children's playground in Wraysbury Getty Images 15/20 Flooding in Wraysbury Labour party leader Ed Miliband talks with resident Peter Horner 16/20 Flooding in Wraysbury A member of the 1st Battalion of the Royal Regiment of Fusiliers leads his vehicle through flood water in Wraysbury Getty Images 17/20 Flooding in Worcester The Severn View Hotel in Worcester surrounded by flood water 18/20 Flooding in Worcester Swans swimming through a flooded car park at Worcester Racecourse 19/20 Flooding in Datchet Residents carry sandbags to protect their property from the floods, in the centre of the village of Datchet 20/20 Flooding in Datchet A man is pulled in a kayak through a flooded street in the village of Datchet

Rising sea levels now takes less of a storm surge for coastal flooding to occur than it did a few decades ago. Warmer air can hold more water, and across many parts of the world we have seen more heavy rain over the past few decades.

Most projections of future climate across the UK suggest that we will experience wetter conditions in winter but it is difficult to predict exactly how flood risk will change. What we do know is that relying on historical records is no longer enough, and will likely lead us to underestimate risk.

Daily coronavirus briefing No hype, just the advice and analysis you need Enter your email address Continue Continue Please enter an email address Email address is invalid Fill out this field Email address is invalid Email already exists. Log in to update your newsletter preferences Register with your social account or click here to log in I would like to receive morning headlines Monday - Friday plus breaking news alerts by email Update newsletter preferences

Climate change affects flood risk differently across the world. In some areas, the flood risk may decrease, because of lower rainfall or perhaps smaller snowmelt floods. But in other areas, risk is likely to increase substantially if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, particularly in some densely populated regions such as south Asia.

Overall global exposure to flooding will increase much faster than the projected rises in population and economic growth alone might suggest.

The message for politicians is clear. Even if deep cuts to emissions of greenhouse gases are successful, we will have to live with more floods in Britain.

Once the immediate challenge is over, we need to think deeply about how to manage our flood risk as the climate changes.

Professor Nigel Arnell is Director of the Walker Institute for Climate System Research at the University of Reading