For the last two weeks or so, the NBA has been like that ex girlfriend that you see out with the one guy you can’t stand. You know the feeling that get’s in the pit of your stomach and doesn’t leave because now you think you’re missing out on something. Dealing with the variance that happens in the NBA isn’t something that is easy. It’s SUPPOSED to be the easiest sport in DFS. Yet, sometimes, we pay too much to the numbers and not enough to what we are seeing. Remember, in DFS the ultimate goal isn’t to win one day, it’s to be profitable for the season. As DFS players, you will go on slumps. It’s going to happen. What can do during this time is scale it back. Keep it simple, and take a step back to analyze your process. I can’t stress this enough because there is no magic formula to give you the answers that will help you win. It’s a different puzzle each and every day. No projections, no optimizer, nothing is full proof and going to allow you to win every night. Projections are only as good as the information it’s fed, and optimizer’s are only as good as the projections fed into it. Under no circumstances should you EVER pay for an optimizer. There are a ton of FREE ones out there that you can import any projections you want to feed it into it. As a notable DFS player said yesterday, “Everybody is trying to get the most $ possible out of DFS, and everyone has their own way of going about that. Don’t be fooled.” I took this in two different ways, my followers on twitter are filled with people that are great at giving out information, promotion of their services, to which I do subscribe. Not because I need help “deciding” on who to play, but so I can help decide on where the crowd is going to be turning that night. My followers are also filled with “Fanduel Guru” and “DFS King” and a lot of other’s that claim to have the “winning” formula. The lineup sellers. I used to block them, but I can’t block 15 people a day. I fell into that scam once. And that’s exactly what I believe it is, a scam. Some of the best people I’ve met are through DFS. Kevin, is one of the smartest minds I know when it comes to NFL, and it has shown with the community he has built for us. They’re also some of the funniest and truly will help if you reach out. DFS though right now is filled with a bunch of people that are trying to take advantage of the people that are frustrated with losing and aren’t going to put in the dirty work to get better. THE DFS ARMY IS NOT THAT WAY! Nothing worth having comes easy. Winning GPP’s is not easy, making a profit in DFS is not easy. DFS IS NOT EASY. Put in the work, and the reward will be there.

I’d like to take this time to congratulate JDubbedford for narrowly escaping last night in the H2H Tournament. It was a tight one for the whole night but it was a loss none the less. Good Job! He escaped the double dud of both Markieff Morris and Tyler Johnson. You can see, that we had a similar lineup as right off the bat, the 8v8 game became a 5v5 as we both had Devin Booker, Markieff Morris, and Serge Ibaka. I believe we can take this into a learning lesson by understanding that on nights where there are less than 5 games, a lot of cash game lineups are going to be identical. He now receives a great $5.00! The reason it’s $5.00 is I received a $1.00 bonus for taking down Choppodong! I’m not going to keep bounty money, so it goes to the person that beats me after I get it!

There are 11 games tonight, so it’s going to be a fun night! Remember, You will not be able to cover every base, so on nights like tonight, you need to take a stand, and draw the line in the sand. I like taking nights like tonight to stack high total games, and get great value plays that are overlooked. Think about the talked about plays over the last couple days and use the recency bias to your benefit!

Point Guard

High: Stephen Curry – Curry is on a roll right now and is the most expensive player on the board. That’s a good thing for us. The only thing that I’m a little hesitant on is whether Jimmy Butler is going to guard him or Klay Thompson. If things break the right way, they are both hitting their shot and he has to split time.

Mid: Ish Smith – Mr. Do-It-All has actually made the Sixers respectable. They play hard, and now they have someone running the offense and leading the team on the court. His price has continued to rise, but he’s continued to produce.

Value: Jeremy Lin/Darren Collison – I actually like both of these players tonight. For Jeremy Lin, he’s not shy about shooting the ball. As an OKC fan, I know how bad the Thunder are against shooters from the 3 point line. See Gallinari last night. For Collison, he sees a lot of time with Rondo on the court at the same time and they work really well together. A lot of players are going to look at the Game Log’s and see the 5 points he put up against the Lakers the last time. I’m not.

Shooting Guard

High: None. The obvious choice here would be James Harden since he has 55+ point potential, but at his CURRENT price tag, he has only paid that off twice. Normally I would say we should “buy low” but Harden just doesn’t look interested in doing anything to help this team.

Mid: Dwayne Wade – Tyler Johnson was a major disappointment last night. So was Wade. In fact, if you told me that Wade was a bigger dud I wouldn’t argue with you. A lot of people are going to hold the bias against Johnson and not Wade. I will be having exposure to both.

Value: Wesley Matthews – It’s Wednesday, so it’s time for our weekly Dallas Value Plays! I don’t know how much I will be going to a lot of the Maverick reserves, but I will have some exposure to them. This total is just a tick under 197 so it’s a great game to target and should have some lower owned players.

Small Forward

High: Kevin Durant – This one is easy. He’s cheap. Anytime you can get him under 10k, he’s almost a plug and play for me. The Thunder are playing a lot more consistent over the last 13 games since Cameron Payne was entered into the rotation and it’s helped everyone on this team. Yes, this is the 3rd game in 4 nights, but I’m not worried against a middle of the pack Charlotte team.

Mid: Nicolas Batum – Again, a player that has seen his price decrease and is playing the Thunder. He should have a monster game here.

Value: Shabazz Muhammad – I’ve been on the Shabazz train for about a week now. He’s still a great value play for tournaments. He has 30 point upside and for the price he’s at, that’s extremely hard to find.

Power Forward

High: Draymond Green – I miss the days when Draymond was sneaky. We’ve always had a great result when targeting player against the Chicago front court. If you can find the value, then this is a great way to go tonight. In my opinion, Draymond is the MVP this year in the NBA at the halfway mark.

Mid: Julius Randle – Larry Nance Jr. is out tonight, and this is the highest total of the night. He is going to be around 40% or more in tournaments and probably above 60% in cash tonight. Don’t worry about it for cash, but make sure that you have someone that has 40 point potential if you choose to fade him in tournaments.

Value: Aaron Gordon – Why Gordon isn’t starting is something that I can’t figure out. That is the only issue I have with Gordon. He is more of a tournament play for me, but it’s something I’m willing to take a chance on since he generally is very low owned.

Center

High: DeMarcus Cousins – Boogie will be very highly owned tonight in my opinion, and for good reason. He is going against Roy Hibbert. Scary huh? Ya I hope you said no. We have the value tonight for you to fit him in.

Mid: Nikola Vucevic – Probably the second best matchup of the night next to Boogie. The 76ers are absolutely horrible on the interior and with the way that the Sixers have been playing since the arrival of Ish Smith, he should see a full compliment of minutes tonight.

Low: Amir Johnson – Johnson had a stinker the other night in Dallas. This is exactly what we need to go back to him as most people will be off of him in tournaments tonight. He has a better matchup against Toronto tonight and should be very active.

Also, I want to remind you that if you aren’t in the VIP Slack Channel that you should DM me on Twitter @boomersdfsdaddy or on Slack. The password for today is Rocktober. I’m moving to having Monday’s only in the NBA Talk Channel and the rest of the week in the VIP channel only. The reason is that you are paying for my advice, and it’s not fair to you that people are getting it for free. Thanks to Choppodong for pointing this out!

Make sure to check back about 4:30 Central Time for the Cheat Sheets! Until then, here are the NBA Stats that are important!

Here are the NBA Cheat Sheets, No salaries, we ran out of time due to technical difficulties in on the Podcast. Will be back again tomorrow.

NBA Cheat Sheet

NBA Cheat Sheet PDF