Receiver Devin Smith says the dream of an undefeated season is alive the Buckeyes. The numbers say there's a 28.8 percent chance it happens.

(Photo by Marvin Fong, The Plain Dealer)

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Receiver Devin Smith said he really started considering the idea of an undefeated season after Ohio State's wins over two ranked teams, Michigan State and Nebraska, to start the Big Ten schedule.

“I started telling myself, 'Man, we really can go 12-0,'” Smith said. “That dream is still alive and everyone on this team believes that.”

What are the chances of the dream becoming reality?

That would be 28.8 percent.

That's the number derived by the PredictionMachine.com, which simulated the remaining games of the six major undefeated teams 50,000 times to come up with that answer.

That made the Buckeyes the third-most likely team to stay perfect before the start of the bowl season, behind Alabama (54.7 percent) and Notre Dame (39.8). That put the Buckeyes ahead of Kansas State (27.7 percent), Oregon (20.2 percent) and Louisville (16.6 percent).

But there's a bigger number, and a bigger percentage, that should interest the Buckeyes and their fans.

Ohio State wants to get to No. 1 in the AP poll, so what are the chances of Ohio State remaining as the only unbeaten team? Paul Bessire, the general manager of PredictionMachine.com, answered that question after a request from The Plain Dealer.

Ohio State going 12-0 and the five other undefeated teams losing at least once before the start of bowl season? That's a 3.8 percent chance, or a 1-in-26 occurrence. Even taking out Louisville, currently ranked behind the Buckeyes, the chances aren't that much better, just 4.5 percent, or 1-in-22.

That's the only path that gets Ohio State to No. 1 in the AP poll.

If Alabama, Oregon, Kansas State or Notre Dame is undefeated at the end of the year, that team will finish ahead of Ohio State. And if one of those teams is undefeated entering the bowls and loses to a one-loss team in the BCS national championship, expect that team to get enough of a bump to finish No. 1, even if Ohio State is the only team left with no losses.

As one of the 60 voters in the AP poll, it's not hard to imagine how voters would react, if, for instance, one-loss Oregon beats undefeated Alabama in the BCS title game. Or one-loss Alabama beats undefeated Kansas State.

The Buckeyes might get a few No. 1 votes in that scenario, but not enough to get to the top spot.

“There's a lot of experts that have a say in it,” OSU left tackle Jack Mewhort said, talking about the Buckeyes' current spot in the AP poll. “There's a lot of different things that go into it. So they say we're sixth, so we're sixth. If we keep winning, I think it'll take care of itself.

To take care of the ultimate goal, the Buckeyes would need a lot of help. Their work consists of three more games.

Answering another request, Bessire provided the PredictionMachine.com percentages on the Buckeyes' winning each of their last three games: Illinois (87.8 percent), at Wisconsin (52.8 percent) and Michigan (52.2 percent).

But don't forget that the Badgers are now deciding on a new starting quarterback with Joel Stave out for the rest of the regular season with a broken collarbone; and Michigan is trying to keep quarterback Denard Robinson's elbow healthy for the rest of the season.

So when it comes to 12-0, the Buckeyes have to like their 28.8 percent chances. When it comes to that AP No. 1, that 1-in-26 shot is a lot more difficult.

Don Steinberg, member of 1942 title team, dies: Former Buckeye Don Steinberg, a member of Ohio State's 1942 national championship team, died Monday at the age of 90.

In 2007, Steinberg told The Plain Dealer that the players had no idea that they might be the best in the country and on their way to winning Ohio State's first national title.

"I never knew where we were," Steinberg said. "Paul Brown never let us know. We found out at the end of the season."

Steinberg in 1992 wrote a book about that 1942 team and the accomplishments of those team members after they left Ohio State, called "Expanding Your Horizons." Jim Tressel had his players read the book before the 2002 season, when Ohio State won another national title 60 years later. Steinberg went on to a career as a doctor in Toledo.

Sabino likely out: Urban Meyer on Tuesday said the return of linebacker Etienne Sabino from a broken leg this weekend is doubtful. He had been a little more hopeful Monday, when he called Sabino questionable.