We are now officially at the end of the pre-merge of Survivor Triple H. How was it? Well, it’s hard to say as I believe a great pre-merge also hints at greatness in the future and delivers. Last season, for example, we had six solid pre-merge episodes (and a seventh that never existed) but even at the time the show had a worrisome hurdle since a lot of the great characters were eliminated, leaving us with some lacking ones. While there was a star or two and the others did their best to patch the hole, it didn’t work, and in retrospect we can see the pre-merge leading into a bad post-merge. Every time someone found an idol or did something that led into the atrocity at Final 6 I died a little inside.

Maybe HHH does what a lot of modern seasons do and completely drops any setup storylines it has going on, but I have faith that it won’t. The events of the pre-merge were fun, and the setup works so that if the show stopped here I could feasibly fanfic the rest of the season. The swap being the same length of the pre-swap makes it work even more rather than it feeling like a sloppy tack-on to the pre-swap like most two-episode swaps do. It lets the three tribes intermingle with each other without losing touch with the originals.

I’m interested and excited to see what the merge brings us. This episode was interesting setup itself, to make up for the uneventful and frankly bullshit elimination. It’s to the point where I want to assess each character going into the merge and what I think their fate will be. It’s a strong cast, where I don’t feel overly lukewarm on anyone. I’m interested in seeing what happens next, you know?

Speaking of…

It’s amazing how so far JP has become synonymous with padded words and nothing talk. Even Jeff called him on saying a lot of nothing during TC. I legitimately adore him and don’t apologize for it. It’s not that I’m not aware of the fact that he should not have made it past casting. He’s the equivalent of vocal and mental backwash. All of that makes the show a lot better. When he’s voted out I plan on writing a tome dedicated to what a brilliantly dull character he is.

I say “when he’s voted out” because he is not winning, he is not making the finale, and nothing else happens to him. We are even presented with the reason he goes- to eliminate a challenge beast. Honestly I thought that JP would go this week, which would have made me sadder, but then Ryan had to clean up his mess. The argument that he would win challenges was a strong one, and though it’s not the most pressing concern for Soko after Ryan shit the bed, it’s still valid.

I think JP will be in majority, since he has the other heroes to go back to. He doesn’t seem to have respect for Ryan, nor Ryan back, as JP sees Ryan as weak and Ryan sees JP as a bad social player because JP talks about stuff Ryan doesn’t understand. Still, I see them working together until Ryan in the mid-merge catches on to the fact that JP and Ashley are deemed a power couple. That combined with his muscles and Chad-ness will probably make him an unexpected blindside, one I think everyone save Ashley would be on board for.

Eighth or ninth place sounds about right for him. I’ll go into detail later but I think that he’s going to ride the wave of a Pagonging for a little while, but then his blindside will break it. I also think that while he brings no story of his own, the more episodes we have of him adding little stupid things to the ones we get, the better.

Ben is in probably the most comfortable spot I can think of. He has ties to Lauren of the Hustlers (and possibly the other two, more on that later), to Mike, and is probably the favorite of the heroes. The other healers have no use for him, but I doubt they’d target him first over JP. I don’t think Cole is aware that Ben is bagging on him, only Mike and Lauren are.

Ben could also be the one to inform the rest of the heroes that Cole is a jackass, but the thing I’ve noticed about Ben is that he is not incredibly proactive. Not “he’s not playing the game” or even “he’s not putting himself in good positions” because he is. He’s doing his part to put himself in beneficial situations. However, Ben is not the one to go out of his way to shift things. At least, not without help.

I think something will come of Ben and Lauren, and potentially of Mike as well. They are clearly the three grownups of NuYawa (despite the difference between Ben and Jessica being smaller than the one between Jessica and Cole). I can see them becoming a core in the majority alliance I predict at merge. However, if anyone tries to flip it around Ben won’t be coming up with it on his own. However, he’ll be a pretty damn good editor.

Chrissy’s another one in a strong position. She’s in tight with Ben, and in tight with Ryan, with all the allies that may entail. However, she likely cannot bring both Ryan and Ben to the end. If she has any sense- and she does- she shouldn’t bring Ben to the end regardless. Ben doesn’t suffer fools lightly, and Ryan can see Ben as a threat to win. Chrissy will probably have to cut one loose and any side they may have, and she’s close enough to them that it will hurt.

I see her siding with Ryan. He’s already cut two allies for her, and has been angry at people after he blindsides them. He’s a good get for final tribal if he keeps it up. Traditionally, however, 40+ women tend to lose jury votes no matter how strategically controlling they are. She has to bring the right person to the end with her so her strategic nature will overwhelm that. As seen by the fanbase, 40+ women are held to very high standards, and it will be hard for her to escape that.

Chrissy has shown that she has ice for blood, and this was confirmed in Ali’s post-game interviews, where she revealed Chrissy made her too comfortable to look for an idol by bringing up the family visit. If she keeps this up, she will almost certainly make the end. However, if she keeps this up, she’ll obliterate the already towering don’t-serve-rice behavioral standards for older women.

She’s an interesting entity on her own. I think Alan has damned her to essentially being the secondhand of JP, but I think once JP falls she has options. If Desi makes it there, which I think she will, she can talk to her and Devon from New Levu. I think that using Ashley they can probably flip earlier, and make Chrissy even more compelled to flip on Ben with rocks as an alternative. If not, though, she goes home, and I do not see Ashley being a player that, even if successful, is carried along for much longer. Without JP she’s been able to show that she can play. How much they’ll let her is another story.

You may have noticed, why Cam, you seem to only have mentioned Mike of the Healers, and a little bit of Desi! That’s for a very good reason- Joe, Cole, and Jessica will be the first three out. Mark my words, because either I’m right or a supreme idjit. However, as to why Jessica goes I can’t take credit for the theory. It’s been brought up a few times especially in edgic- much like Michelle Schubert was the merge boot to dodge an idol, I can see Jessica meeting a similar fate.

I love Jessica. Really, I do. I think Jeff getting on her for not cutting Cole at any of the no Tribal Councils they went to is the most ridiculous thing he’s said since he said the Cirie Tribal Council was just what he always wanted. I think that while she does trust and like Cole to increasingly smaller extents, she has played pretty solidly since then. However, it doesn’t take a lot to set someone against you- sometimes, just being aligned with someone who is a bigger target.

A showmance that has never experienced a Tribal Council is hard to separate in one’s mind, and Cole’s fate is entirely tied into Jessica’s. It’s pretty clear that Jessica is seen as the smarter one in the Cole/Jessica duo but I think there’s something that holds Cole back from being the merge boot. Maybe Cole wins immunity. Maybe they want to avoid an idol. Maybe Jessica is targeted over Cole in the first place. Either way, if Jessica goes, Cole doesn’t have a prayer.

Last episode he passed out. I think something was a little fishy about it but I’ve been taught to let it go- I lean towards it being a reenactment anyways. However, he may have had the most negative medical emergency in ages. Mike, Ben, and Lauren all took this as a sign that he was weak and needed to gorge himself to ensure he survives. Respect towards Cole took a nosedive this episode from an already steady decline. Jessica could have autonomy over him, but I am genuinely not sure Cole could have autonomy without 1800 calories.

Especially after a swap, bad press can kill you. I already said in regards to Joe that Ashley and Devon could tell the others bad attributes about Joe and single him out. Even though their perception of him is more positive, it’s still just as dangerous. They think he’s a good player, that he’s a dogged strategist, and that he has a knack for finding idols (at the same place on every tribe because you know strategic genius). This is all because he made sure to show off (him reading Ashley’s face in particular). It can cost him and make him an early target come merge.

There’s the issue of Joe’s idol. While I am predicting a Healers Pagonging, I acknowledge that can be put on hold with it. However, I think him playing it is stacked to a wrong play. I think at merge with Jessica being the target Joe doesn’t see it at all and plays it for himself. What happens if he plays it right, I’ll get into later, but I don’t have faith that he does.

The Healers seem to have a bevy of bad press against them, but if anyone has good press it’s Mike. He’s seen as a fun guy, a nice guy, facing the elements well and improving as a provider. Because of this, he finds himself in tight with the others that the other four are not. After all, the others were very us against them, unusually territorial, while Mike hung out with everyone in part because he knew he was on the bottom over at Original Soko.

If there is any healer to flip, it’s Mike. Along with being aware of his place on Soko, he has had Joe trying to frame him for the idol and Cole being an idiotic jerk. His friendships seem to align better with the heroes and hustlers, who have shown more respect for him. In addition, Mike has an idol. I see him sitting on that until the time is right to split the larger alliance up, and doing well with it. I think he’ll work with Ben, Lauren, and potentially Desi, but it will be tough going from there. I see him missing the end by that much, because I can neither see him winning or losing a jury vote.

Desi is the most singled-out person I can think of. To put it lightly, she has no connections. Just an arbitrary one with Joe that she is set to break. She also has no reasons to get targeted or voted out. I see her as the last of the quartet of healers to get a Pagonging penciled in. However, I also think she’s the most likely to infiltrate and be used or delayed to get other targets. How long she lasts after that, though, I can’t say, because she has no one.

I could say a lot about this punk, but I think my latest problems with him are also ones that poke holes in his game. Last week we all were wondering “why not tell Ali that Roark was going?” Capes would say that Ali would emphatically shut Ryan down and betray him, but interestingly Ali had that same question- why not tell me? This led to a lot of Ryan screaming at her like she’s an idiot, lecturing her, and demonizing her for voting Chrissy. A lot of his fans would say either she started it or she deserved it, but one thing was clear- Ryan would not include everyone he was aligned with strategically, and Ryan is awful at damage control.

I mean did you see him? He immediately got defensive, got mad at her, then yelled at her like she was the bad guy for being betrayed, then went in confessional to paint her as irrational. He’s like an internet commenter. Even if he thinks he made the right move (and after he released his midgame interview with Dalton, good luck saying that and leaving without injury) his damage control was awful. If people think the way he acted was unnerving, they’re not being the type of PC Ryan hates.

There was also the segment where JP talked about his dream dates with women. Ali and Chrissy seemed into it, then there was Ryan who said JP talked about stuff he himself did not know (dating, bars, etc) so therefore JP had a poor social game. This misunderstanding of a social game and belief the world revolves around you not even the his staunchest defenders can explain away.

Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but I can see him being a jury vote loser. Flaws of his have been explicitly shown, and all of them are social downfalls we can infer will cost him jury votes. I also do not think that Ryan will be voted out before then. After the main three Healers are gone, the numbers are all crunched the way that Ryan may get majority with his side, or he will be the last survivor of the minority his side falls into, or at least not the first target.

I see him getting no votes in the future. At the very least, that’s what I hope. The validation this twerp gets is a thorn in my side.

In a perfect world for Devon, he goes with Ryan and Chrissy to the F3 and easily wins. However, something about Devon as a winner doesn’t feel 100% right. I mean, to some extent it does- he is shown to be the right half of the Devon/Ryan pair and has some connection to Ashley. Still ,Ryan’s condescension about him needing a #strategist in Episode 1 and this last episode showed Joe stunting on him. These instances make it hard for me to imagine a world where Devon wins. So why does Devon lose?

First example could be that any split could happen on his body. If that happens, Devon is the first of him, Chrissy, and Ryan to get Pagonged or taken out by Mike’s idol. Also, in the case of a tie, I can see Devon’s closest allies flipping on him to avoid a rock draw. There is also a contingency, however, where Joe plays the idol correctly. The edit has foreshadowed what will happen with Joe finding it with Devon unawares. Devon seems like the one to go, what with that and the fact that Devon seems like an idol target regardless. He’s athletic, a “golden boy”, and pretty tight with bridging a gap between Heroes and Hustlers. Ideally if you’re gonna idol anyone, you idol who is least likely to get betrayed early on, and Devon is that person.

However it goes, I see Devon as a sacrificial lamb. Sooner or later, he will be removed as the biggest obstacle in someone’s way.

I can’t help but go back to Lauren earlier on in this game. She did not take bullshit from others, was straight up, and proved her worth in challenges even when condescended that she was worthless at them. Even this episode, Cole condescended to Lauren after she talked about things Cole didn’t like, accusing her of interrupting after she waited for like three seconds after he talked then interrupting her himself. Cole then went on to say they would never win challenges without him before going on to bungle challenges while Lauren did not.

I think after Ryan comes back without Ali Lauren will be the first to pick up on it. Last they saw each other, Ali was Lauren’s friend, after all. Ryan won’t be able to escape Lauren’s scrutiny and may be penciled in for a later removal from the game even if they align at first. Lauren never trusted a redshirt a day in her life, and she knows how to use sensitive information.

Speaking of which, though she did off-screen help give it to Devon, Lauren knows about the steal-a-vote and how it was used on Devon. She could give a half-truth to him saying Jessica blocked his vote and it’s curtains for her. That’s what makes me think Jessica will be the immediate target- the information Cole leaked to Lauren, Lauren could leak to the others.

Her final fate, I am not sure about. I would love her to win, but I think she might be the beloved final boot. I don’t think she has the flexibility others have to work with people she doesn’t trust. This will ultimately prevent her from finishing the final stretch others will likely traverse.

Final Theory

Keep in mind that I have read zero spoilers this season. I don’t think there even are spoilers. When I am made aware of them I do not pretend I don’t know how they end up- hence me not doing Caleb’s pre-game bio last season after I learned he didn’t make merge. This is all guesswork and I expect to be right on little of it. However, here’s how I see things going.

12th: Jessica, for the fact that Healers have a 5-4-3 advantage to close. She’s chosen to avoid Cole and Joe’s immunities- idols or necklaces- and could be expedited by Lauren revealing she was the one to block Devon. I also think Mike flips to their side to keep his idol secret and because he trusts people on the other side more.

11th/10th: Cole and Joe. Cleanup time. At some point Desi votes with the majority to save herself.

9th: JP. The majority pulls off a blindside of the strongest and less connected player. Only his “power couple” partner Ashley votes with him, made unaware, to avoid her telling him to play an idol.

8th: Desi. The fight between the two pawns of Desi and Ashley commences with the other 6 but Ashley’s connections to both Chrissy and Ben save her. I think this is right around where the battle lines in the main alliance could be drawn- Ryan/Devon/Chrissy and Lauren/Mike/Ben.

7th: Devon. At some point he is the sacrificial lamb as I said, but this seems like a way he can go out- due to Mike’s idol. Ben could catch wind of them targeting Dr. Mike and they could idol him out.

6th: Ashley. The next vote is a 3-3 tie and though Ashley could side with Chrissy and Ryan, I doubt they would stick their neck out for her.

5th: Lauren. She doesn’t turn to Ryan and Chrissy, but Mike will. Ben will go along with it to preserve Chrissy. Because of that, if they take out Lauren they’ll be golden.

4th: Mike. Between Ben and Mike, the doctor will be seen as having the bigger and better story and Chrissy’s bond with Ben will be strong enough to save him.

Final 3- Ben, Mike, and Ryan.

Ryan gets Devon, Chrissy gets JP and Ashley, Ben gets the rest.

That’s my theory and I’m sticking to it.

Next Time on… Survivor!

We’ll see if I’m right.

-Cam

P.S. If you aren’t watching Survivor: Washington (Orting) you’re missing out. I was considering posting what would have been a spoiler from their F6 episode but decided not to spoil y’all. Still, damn.