Eric Moody examines players to target in the later rounds of 2016 fantasy football drafts.

There is an adage in fantasy football that drafts are won in the middle-to-late rounds. Every season there are late-round draft picks that become difference makers for owners at certain points of the fantasy season. This article will identify and provide analysis on high-upside fliers that you should consider targeting at the end of your fantasy drafts. This article will specifically focus on running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends that are generally outside of the top 100 according to FantasyPros consensus ADP.

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Charles Sims (RB – TB)

You should prioritize drafting Sims to all of your fantasy football teams. He can already be viewed as a low-end RB2 or FLEX option, but if Martin misses time due to an injury Sims can be viewed as an RB1. Both Sims (0.37) and Martin (0.42) had an eerily similar fantasy-points-per-opportunity in standard formats according to Pro Football Focus. Mark Cook, of the Pewter Report, “really believe(s)” Sims will see an increase in carries in 2016. I am comfortable drafting Sims as an RB3 in fantasy drafts.

Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)

The Titans have made it abundantly clear they want to impose their will on opponents through their power running game. Whether they have the personnel to accomplish this is up for debate, but it does bode well for Henry. I have been very high on Henry coming into the season. The Titans’ backfield will operate as a committee. I prefer to draft Henry later in fantasy drafts. He has the potential to be a difference-maker at one point this season if Murray is injured or underperforms. Henry is a player I will continue to watch closely during the preseason. I recommend stashing him as your RB4 or RB5.

Torrey Smith (WR – SF)

Chip Kelly will bring his uptempo offensive scheme that took the NFL by storm in 2013 to San Francisco. DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin rode the wave of being the No. 1 wide receiver in this offense to a top 10 fantasy wide receiver finish in 2013 and 2014 when Kelly was the head coach of the Eagles. The vertical element in Kelly’s scheme was missing in 2015. I anticipate it will be brought back in 2015, and Smith stands to benefit. The ongoing narrative this summer has been about 49ers wide receiver Bruce Ellington and his potential breakout. Smith has the physical profile of a No. 1 NFL wide receiver with the ability to run a full route tree. He is worth drafting as your WR5 or WR6.

Stefon Diggs (WR – MIN)

Laquon Treadwell received the hype after being selected by the Vikings in the 2016 NFL Draft. Diggs has quietly put together an excellent training camp and all signs indicate that the Vikings passing attack will be funneled through him. Matt Vensel, writer for the Star Tribune, summed it up perfectly in a recent article:

After Diggs came out of nowhere as a fifth-round rookie to lead the team with 52 catches and 720 receiving yards last season, the Vikings told Diggs to focus on learning all three wide receiver positions during the offseason. With the addition of big-bodied split end Laquon Treadwell, the team’s top draft pick, Diggs usually will line up off the line of scrimmage at the flanker position. But defenses will see the shifty 22-year-old in the slot, too, and occasionally at split end, the position he was forced to play as a rookie because of the presence of highly paid and underproductive flanker Mike Wallace.

All signs point to the Vikings leveraging their passing game more in 2016. Diggs is best viewed as a WR3 or WR4 with the upside for much more. He is criminally undervalued at his current ADP.

Willie Snead (WR – NO)

Snead is often an after thought to fantasy football owners after Brandin Cooks emergence the second half of the season. He continues to be criminally undervalued. The Saints’ offense continues to spread targets around like moon pies and beads during Mardi Gras. No Saints’ receiver has exceeded Marques Colston‘s high mark of 143 targets since 2007. This caps Cooks’ upside in 2016. I would much rather select Snead late in the draft.

Antonio Gates (TE – SD)

Gates had the seventh highest DYAR or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (113) last season according to Football Outsiders. It is a statistic that boils down a tight end with more total value. Gates only played 11 games last season after serving his suspension. He played 510 offensive snaps last season and was targeted on 17 percent of those snaps. Gates produced 1.66 fantasy points per reception last season, should see a high number of snaps in passing situations, and will continue to be used heavily in the red zone. He can still be deployed a low-end TE1 in fantasy drafts.

Rapid Takes

LeGarrette Blount (RB – NE)

The Patriots’ early-down and goal-line running back. He has scored 23 touchdowns in 30 career games with the team. I view Blount as a RB3 or RB4 who has week-winning upside when the Patriots are playing with a lead.

Isaiah Crowell (RB – CLE)

The Browns’ early-down and goal-line running back. He benefits from from Hue Jackson’s power-running scheme. I view Crowell as an RB4 with upside given how Jackson leveraged Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill as the Bengals’ offensive coordinator.

Bilal Powell (RB – NYJ)

Powell generated 0.63 points-per-opportunity (PPO) in PPR formats according to Pro Football Focus from Week 13 to Week 17 last season which placed him in the top 10. The Jets signed Matt Forte and Powell to a very similar contract. Powell will be leaned upon more than you think.

Tevin Coleman (RB – ATL)

Coleman’s injury early in the season allowed Devonta Freeman to literally run away with the starting running back job. The Falcons’ coaching staff will use him as part of a committee with Freeman. The split remains to be seen, but Coleman has the potential to be a season-changer if Freeman misses time. He was drafted by current coaching regime in the 2015 NFL Draft.

Kamar Aiken (WR – BAL)

Aiken continues to be undervalued. He is my favorite candidate to lead the Ravens in targets and receptions in 2016. Aiken can be viewed as a solid WR4 with upside in PPR formats.

Alfred Morris (RB – DAL)

Ezekiel Elliott is likely to receive the bulk of the carries in Dallas, but Morris will be the next man up if Elliott misses time. DeMarco Murray and Darren McFadden had career years running behind the Cowboys’ elite offensive line.

Darren Sproles (RB – PHI)

Sproles was another player who received an extension this past offseason. He should own the receiving work in Philadelphia as the third option behind Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz. Sproles should be drafted as an RB4 in PPR formats. He has the potential to finish as a top 25 PPR fantasy running back in 2016.

Devin Funchess (WR – CAR)

Funchess struggled early in his rookie season, but we saw the light finally come on during the second half. He has breakout potential as the No. 2 wide receiver in this offense lining up outside of Kelvin Benjamin. Funchess is a WR5 with upside for much more.

Dwayne Allen (TE – NE)

The Colts will use a three wide receiver set as their base formation in 2016. Allen can be viewed as a TE2 this season, but has the potential the lead the Colts in touchdowns. The only other legitimate receiving weapon in the red zone the Colts have is Donte Moncrief.

Chris Johnson (RB – ARI)

Johnson was effective last season before the Cardinals gave David Johnson a larger workload. He is an inexpensive piece of one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.

Devontae Booker (RB – DEN)

Booker is another running back that could be a difference maker the second half of the season. Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak’s zone-running scheme has produced multiple 1,000 yard rushers. Here is an article I wrote for FantasyPros diving deeper into the potential outcomes for C.J. Anderson and Booker.

Zach Miller (TE – CHI)

Miller performed very well when Martellus Bennett missed games late last season. He will be the Bears’ starting tight end and third option in the passing game behind Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. Miller is best paired with another tight end as part of a streaming strategy.

Phillip Dorsett (WR – IND)

Could Dorsett be the Colts wide receiver to own in 2016? The hype has revolved around Donte Moncrief, but I recommend drafting Dorsett late in your fantasy draft in case the fantasy community is wrong. He will be a full-time player now that the Colts will run a three wide receiver set as their base formation.

Christine Michael (RB – SEA)

Michael seems to have finally gotten his act together. According to Sheil Kapadia, ESPN Seahawks reporter, he “will have role on offense once the regular season starts.”

Jerick McKinnon (RB – MIN)

I would view McKinnon as a high-upside running back handcuff. Peterson has the third highest number of touches (2,636) among active players.

Spencer Ware (RB – KC)

Jamaal Charles is nearly 30 years old and coming off of his second career ACL injury. He is a considered a medium risk (32 percent) according to Sports Injury Predictor. Ware is the preferred handcuff to Charles.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE – TB)

Seferian-Jenkins has had a rough start to his NFL career. He has all of the physical tools to succeed, but Seferian-Jenkins’ maturity level has been in question this offseason. He can a great fit in Buccaneers head coach Dirk Koetter’s scheme that provides the tight end position with a healthy dose of targets.

Rishard Matthews (WR – TEN)

Matthews is the type of wide receiver who plays with a chip on his shoulder. He landed a nice contract with the Titans and will be featured as their No. 1 wide receiver. Success or failure truly comes down to how effective the Titans’ passing game is in 2016. Matthews is worth drafting as a WR5.

Tajae Sharpe (WR – TEN)

Sharpe is one of the most versatile wide receivers the Titans have on their roster. He is locked in as the Titans’ No. 2 wide receiver. Sharpe has generated a lot of buzz during training camp and the preseason. This may cause his ADP to rise, but he along with Matthews need to be rostered in deeper leagues.

Josh Ferguson (RB – IND)

Ferguson is the Colts No. 2 running back behind Frank Gore. If you like stashing potential season-changers then he fits the criteria. Gore is entering his age 33 season and has accumulated the second most touches (3,078) of active NFL players.

Chris Thompson (RB – WAS)

There are a number of questions regarding the Redskins’ running backs heading into 2016. How efficient will Matt Jones be in 2016? Is Keith Marshall fully recovered and ready for NFL action? The one thing we do know is that Thompson’s role as the receiving back is solidified. He played 374 offensive snaps last season and touched the football or was targeted on 22 percent of them. Thompson is a running back to target late in PPR formats.

Shaun Draughn (RB – SF)

The 49ers offense was an atrocity last season. Draughn performed admirably after Carlos Hyde‘s season ended due to an injury. Hyde is a high injury risk (67 percent) heading into 2016 according to Sports Injury Predictor. The 49ers offense should improve in 2016 under new head coach and offensive guru Chip Kelly.

Jamison Crowder (WR – WAS)

The 2016 season for Josh Doctson is shaping up to be a lost one. Crowder fits the profile of a small slot receiver that could soak up a high number of targets. He averaged 8.2 yards per target and caught 80 percent of them in 2015. Crowder has taken advantage of the offseason and has received praise from a number of Washington beat writers. He is someone to target very late in PPR formats.

Vance McDonald (TE – SF)

McDonald is a player I have been tracking since the 2013 NFL Draft. This could be the season he will finally be in a position to shine. McDonald has athletic ability similar to Travis Kelce, Jordan Reed, and Tyler Eifert. The 49ers’ offense targeted the tight position 127 times in 2015. The addition of new 49ers head coach Chip Kelly’s scheme only adds to the upside. McDonald presents a small investment that could pay huge dividends.

Conclusion

I prefer to build out the core of your fantasy football team roster with adequate depth. At that point a list of players like this could be leveraged as you navigate the later rounds of the draft. You are purposely targeting players with upside and not simply a floor. If one of these players break out you could continue to hold them or even trade them to upgrade other parts of your roster. What are your thoughts on this list of players? Did you already have plans to target them? Please leave a comment below or reach out to me on Twitter @EricNMoody.

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