No. 26: NEW YORK JETS

Last Season: 4-12

Fourth place, AFC East

Losing your starting quarterback a week into camp might be the single worst way to start a season, but the Jets actually stand to come out ahead. Stepping in while Geno Smith recovers from a broken jaw is Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is better than his 25-41 record as a starter over the past five seasons would indicate. In fact, his QBR in 2014 (56.7) was higher than that of Alex Smith, Andy Dalton and Matthew Stafford. (Geno Smith's QBR ranked 26th, at 44.3.) Fitzpatrick's stat line over the past five seasons lines up almost exactly with those for Dalton, Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer. As with those three, Fitzpatrick has won when he's had a highly ranked defense on his side. The Jets might have that after adding Darrelle Revis, Buster Skrine and Antonio Cromartie to a unit that ranked 25th in EPA and allowed a 31-6 TD-to-INT ratio last season. -- Mike Sando

The Jets' best hope -- their only hope -- is to dominate on defense, which has to be Seahawks-good to claim a postseason berth. They augmented their talented front by rebuilding the secondary, so they have the personnel to succeed in today's pass-happy NFL. With the additions of Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie and Buster Skrine, head coach Todd Bowles has the tools to play his scheme -- man-to-man on the outside, with heavy blitzing. Losing Sheldon Richardson to a four-game suspension (possibly longer) hurts because he's their most active lineman. Rookie Leonard Williams is talented, but he doesn't have Richardson's fire.

Same old story -- they're not good enough at quarterback. Their last starter with a top-10 QBR ranking was Chad Pennington in 2006. That won't change because current starter Ryan Fitzpatrick is a caretaker, and Geno Smith is an enigma. Fitzpatrick can get them to 8-8, but that doesn't mean much because this is a win-now team. Smith has a higher ceiling, but he faces physical and external obstacles -- a broken jaw and a fan base tired of his act. There's no guarantee he will reclaim the starting job when healthy. Yep, this is a quarterback controversy waiting to happen.

Jets' percentage chance to win each game

Sept. 13 vs. Cleveland: 61.9

Sept. 20 @ Indianapolis: 24.3

Sept. 27 vs. Philadelphia: 43.6

Oct. 4 vs. Miami (in London): 41.8

Oct. 18 vs. Washington: 66.9

Oct. 25 @ New England: 24.8

Nov. 1 @ Oakland: 54.5

Nov. 8 vs. Jacksonville: 65.3

Nov. 12 vs. Buffalo: 50.8

Nov. 22 @ Houston: 38.6

Nov. 29 vs. Miami: 48.9

Dec. 6 @ N.Y. Giants: 46.1

Dec. 13 vs. Tennessee: 68.8

Dec. 19 @ Dallas: 30.9

Dec. 27 vs. New England: 38.6

Jan. 3 @ Buffalo: 37.1

Rich Cimini's game-by-game predictions

Going from Rex Ryan to Bowles is like replacing heavy metal with easy listening. The volume will be lower around One Jets Drive, but there will be more accountability than in the past. Bowles is a cross between his two mentors, Bruce Arians and Bill Parcells -- a players' coach with a harder edge than Ryan. Bowles won't tolerate mental mistakes, penalties or being late to meetings. He will have a quicker hook than Ryan when it comes to underperforming starters. He also will have the full support of the front office, which Ryan didn't have.

Todd Bowles. Ed Mulholland/USA TODAY Sports

Privately, the players are thinking the same thing the fans are saying: If the quarterback position produces efficient, if not stellar play, this can be a playoff team. They feel the other pieces are in place to make a run at the Patriots in the AFC East. The organization sees wide receiver Brandon Marshall as its first big-time offensive weapon since Santonio Holmes in 2010. To a man, everybody believes the defense will be a top-five unit. In the end, it'll be "Fitz-Geno" that determines the season.

They will fall short of the playoffs by a couple of games, so the focus will be on how they can upgrade at quarterback. They'll be promoting current rookie Bryce Petty as the possible answer while exploring other options. Fitzpatrick will be a free agent and Smith probably will be pushed out of the picture, so the rumor mill will be churning with possibilities for 2016 -- Sam Bradford, Drew Brees, Robert Griffin III, etc. With a surplus of defensive-line talent, Richardson will be the subject of trade rumors. The future of Muhammad Wilkerson, a free agent, also will be a hot topic.