VANCOUVER—As British Columbia hits the home stretch in its referendum on changing its electoral system, the Vancouver region continues to see lower-than-average turnout — even as the province as a whole surged Monday to nearly four-in-10 voters.

With Friday’s 4:30 p.m. deadline looming, the number of ballots returned to Elections BC hit 39 per cent Monday morning, with an average of 1.9 per cent arriving each day.

For the Lower Mainland, Tuesday is likely one of the last days to ensure referendum ballots arrive in the mail on time. But many people have expressed concern about ongoing rotating postal strikes, and some voters are being urged to avoid the risk and drop off ballots by hand at referendum service offices.

Compared with the rest of the province, the Vancouver region has so far returned significantly fewer ballots. The province’s worst turnout has been in Surrey, where an average of just 23 per cent of registered voters have had their ballots processed by Elections BC. Next is B.C.’s northwest region with 27 per cent turnout, followed by Burnaby and Richmond, which both saw just 28 per cent on average.

The city of Vancouver is little better, with less than a third of voters so far participating as the referendum heads into the final five days.

B.C.’s highest turnout was 47 per cent in North Saanich and the Islands, which took the lead Monday from previous front-runner Parksville-Qualicum. As a whole, Vancouver Island leads the province’s regions with an average 39 per cent turnout, followed by the Kootenays and Kamloops region slightly behind.

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However, according to electoral data analyst, forecaster and Langara College economist Bryan Breguet — author of the website Too Close to Call — Metro Vancouver’s ridings may be at a serious disadvantage compared with B.C.’s Interior regions.

That’s because most voters received their ballots in the mail days later than B.C.’s Interior and rural areas. By Breguet’s analysis — which attempted to cancel out the effects of such things as political leaning, age and other demographics — the Lower Mainland has seen lower turnout by as much as 0.3 per cent of voters every day.

“My measure might actually capture more the effect of the postal strike,” Breguet wrote on Twitter. “Still, I’d have thought that by now it would be insignificant in my regressions.

“The impact (of when a riding got its ballot) has clearly decreased and we have observed a convergence. But it’s still there: 0.3 per cent per additional day. So the ridings in the Interior that got their ballots seven to 10 days sooner might have a turnout higher by two points just because of that.”

While that might seem minuscule, opinion polls have so far projected the referendum to be a neck-and-neck race between first-past-the-post and proportional representation. The Interior tends to favour first-past-the-post, while the Lower Mainland has more proportional representation supporters, according to polls.

A Nov. 20 survey by Research Co. pollster Mario Canseco found a “dead heat” between the “Yes” and “No” sides across B.C., but many still undecided.

In the online survey of 800 voters, 40 per cent of those surveyed say they’d probably or definitely vote to keep the current system — the same number probably or definitely voting for proportional representation. But nearly one in every six were undecided at that time, according to the poll, which had a margin of error of 3.5 per cent.

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The issue of how many voters participate has dogged the debate over the referendum. The opposition Liberals and the “No” campaign have said if too few voters take part, the result shouldn’t dictate whether B.C. keeps its current first-past-the-post voting system.

First-past-the-post, also known as single-member plurality voting, is the system used by the rest of Canada, the U.K., U.S. and many former British colonies. Meanwhile, proportional representation aims to more closely match the number of seats to parties’ share of the popular vote. Various such systems are used in New Zealand, Scotland, Germany and most member countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

B.C. Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson, who urges voters to keep the current system and boycott the second question, has said he would not consider a turnout of less that four-in-10 voters a “mandate” for change.

Speaking to reporters after a Nov. 8 debate with NDP Premier John Horgan, he attacked making the results binding on the government with no minimum threshold for participation.

“You need to have a good, solid mandate, especially in a mail-in ballot,” Wilkinson said. “It should be well into the 40 per cent range before it would be considered legitimate.”

Wilkinson’s stated threshold seemed poised to be surpassed after Elections BC said that 39 per cent of ballots had been returned by Monday.

There was no minimum threshold needed for this referendum, nor for the Liberals’ two previous electoral in-person referenda, or their mail-in votes on sales taxes and public transit — which had a turnout of 53 and 49 per cent respectively, but had much longer campaign periods.

This is B.C.’s third referendum on proportional representation. In 2005, 58 per cent voted for changing the system, while in 2009, 61 per cent voted for first-past-the-post. This year’s is the first to require only a simple majority to pass.

This time around, the ballot asks two questions: first, whether the province should keep its first-past-the-post system or change to proportional representation; and second, to rank three proportional systems in order of preference. Voters can answer both questions or just one.

Ballots must arrive at Elections BC, or be dropped off in person at referendum offices, before 4:30 p.m. Friday. Offices can be found on Elections BC’s website.

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