With THE AUTUMN SUN as Vince and I discussed and almost like AVILIUS

He went 3rd up from improving his mid race speed by 3.7 lengths on a firm track to chase down FUNDAMENTALIST at his previous run in winning the Randwick Guineas over a mile

to a very wet track over 2000 for the first time in his career just 3rd up to win narrowly over rock hard fit Kiwi ARROGANT who was having his 9th run for the prep and coming back in trip from 2400

And on that heavy ground he improved his speed in the mid race by 17.5 lengths going from -16.7 at the 800 to +0.5 in the mid race

Note very few runners on the day broke benchmark at any stage of any of the races such was the wet conditions

So while we can’t “blame” owners for spelling him perhaps “over-worrying” about the narrow margin given his stallion value

There’s every chance on the data he was set to explode with this hard conditioning run into a race like the Doncaster back in trip

We’ll never know

He was tough enough. The Autumn Sun wins his 5th Group 1. What did you make of the Rosehill Guineas? pic.twitter.com/IiavVQZz8i — Racing.com (@Racing) March 23, 2019

Mid race move – magic

A fortnight ago I focused on the mid race where Sunlight flipped around a slowdown in the Lightning to an increase of speed in the Newmarket which became a key reason as to why she won

Well with Avilius as well explained on the podcast and as you can see above clearly articulated in Vince’s March Sizzlers

The mid race was the clear reason on data for his Australian Cup defeat when $1:75

And given he was $4:50 on Saturday in the Ranvet off such a short starting price at Flemington, the market clearly underestimated that factor

As they often do

A deserved Group 1 winner, Avilius shows his true colours today. @godolphin 💙 pic.twitter.com/mXoYnesnBI — Racing.com (@Racing) March 23, 2019

The Golden Slipper wet track bolter

We would have loved to have declared the Golden Slipper winner on our two year old product

But with both that race and the Melbourne grand final in the Blue Diamond

The promising juveniles simply never went on with it to produce a high quality IVR time with the legitimate excuse in Sydney the conditions

FWIW we had 4 horses ranked “A-” or better regardless of the soft deck

But with both COSMIC FORCE and $33 winner KIAMICHI we gave them an “A” or “B” ranking depending on the conditions with the former if wet after winning the week before

Making it 6 of the 16 if you included the wet track push for that duo

MICROPHONE (2ND) LYRE (3RD) YES YES YES (7TH) AND TENLEY (15TH) were the four “A’s” on talent with obviously the latter not handling the conditions

Wrong group think

Was delighted to be on the right side of the market being wrong

Where an amazingly generous price was bet on NZ visitor CONSENSUS

Who 13 months earlier ran 2nd in a sizzling mile at Hastings before heading to Sydney

And being unplaced in elite races behind GAILO CHOP at Rosehill and then 6th at Randwick To Winx! And GAILO CHOP, HAPPY CLAPPER, HUMIDOR and COMIN’ THROUGH.

Fair form for a basic mares stakes race at Moonee Valley

She was fit and in form this prep too

So even with hindsight have no idea why the market took a set against her

Sometimes they get it wrong.

Something we get it wrong

The former is nicer…

Stephen McKee returns @TheValley with his mare Consensus to win the race named after his three-time Australasian champion, Sunline – the Group 2 Sunline Stakes (1600m) ridden by ex-pat Kiwi Michael Walker. pic.twitter.com/go2MVkMl2z — Mark Nowell (@MarkANowell) March 22, 2019

“Racetrack” Ralphy Horowitz provides independent form analysis via racetrackralphy.com.au. He uses Vince Accardi’s dailysectionals.com.au IVR benchmarking service and together they do the Year Round Carnival podcast https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/year-round-carnival-by-vince-accardi-racetrack-ralphy/id1272190424?mt=2 review of the weekend’s main races every Monday”