It’s often said that the arc of history bends toward justice, but the arc of American history seems to bounce toward it instead. During Reconstruction in the 1860s and 1870s, the federal government campaigned to build a multiracial democracy in the South. That project’s defeat in 1877 then ushered in 90 years of Redemption, mass disenfranchisement, and American racial apartheid. Only in the 1950s and 1960s did the civil-rights movement and the Warren Court finally drag the United States into genuine liberal democracy.

Another dip now appears to be underway. President Donald Trump and the Roberts Court are poised to spark a Second Redemption—an era where federal enforcement of civil rights is no longer assured, where states are free to allow citizens to be discriminated against in housing and employment, where voting is a privilege instead of a right, and where a person’s access to goods and services can be restricted by the beliefs of total strangers.

The latest blow came over the weekend when the New York Times reported that the Trump administration is considering plans to roll back civil-rights protections for an estimated 1.4 million transgender Americans. Some federal courts have concluded that gender identity is covered by some existing federal laws that forbid discrimination on the basis of actual or perceived sex. But conservative policymakers in the administration disagree, arguing instead for a narrow definition of gender based on a person’s assigned sex at birth. The Justice Department asked the Supreme Court on Wednesday to overturn a Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals ruling in favor of a transgender worker, arguing that Section VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 doesn’t cover discrimination against gay, lesbian, and transgender Americans.

If the Trump administration succeeds, transgender Americans’ rights would rest on a patchwork array of state laws and local ordinances. Twenty states and the District of Columbia forbid discrimination on the basis of gender identity in housing, employment, and public accommodations. Another dozen states have limited legal protections for transgender people, while more than 15 states, mostly in the South and the Great Plains, have none.

The geographic division roughly matches the divide on other matters of gender and sexuality. A Washington Post analysis in September found that abortion would automatically become illegal in 14 states under current laws if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade. (Roughly a dozen others could follow suit depending on the state legislature’s makeup at the time.) Seven states allow pharmacists to refuse to fill a contraceptive prescription without referring it to another provider. Twenty-eight states don’t have anti-discrimination laws for gay and lesbian Americans in situations like housing and employment. Seven states explicitly allow discrimination in adoptions and foster care.