Waning Support for the Liberal Government Leaves Opposition Parties An Opportunity to Capitalize

The eighth wave of Campaign Research’s poll – an online public opinion omnibus survey conducted among a sample of 2002 Canadian voters – found that the Conservative Party of Canada continues to trail the Liberal Party by 8% in terms of voter intent (38% to 30%). Conservative support remains unchanged from last month, while Liberal support decreased 4%. (Liberal voter intent was 42% while Conservative voter intent was 30% in September).

The Conservatives greatest support stems from Alberta (51%), the Prairies (37%) and, surprisingly, the Greater Toronto Region (GTA) (37%) – a region that, historically, has been a stronghold for the Liberals. The Liberal Party, on the other hand, has retained strong support in Atlantic Canada (49%), Quebec (43%) and Ontario (41%). Within Ontario, the bulk of Liberal support is in Toronto (47%). There continues to be a sizeable margin in voter intent between the NDP and the Conservatives (11% difference) as well as the NDP and the Liberals (19% difference). The NDP derives a large portion of their support from the Prairies (27%), British Columbia (20%), Toronto (21%) and various regions in Ontario (23%).

Justin Trudeau’s approval rating (46%) is significantly higher than his rivals Andrew Scheer (24%) and Jagmeet Singh (23%). It is important to highlight, however, that these disparities between the three Leaders are largely a consequence of Canadian voters’ unfamiliarity with Andrew Scheer (33% do not know much, and 33% know nothing) and Jagmeet Singh (35% do not know much, and 33% know nothing). Moreover, 55% of Canadians can’t recall the name of the new leader of the NDP party. Jagmeet Singh will have to increase his awareness if he is going to earnestly challenge Trudeau and Scheer for Prime Minster.

Interestingly, our study – for a second straight month – indicated that a plurality of Canadian voters support the proposed tax changes. However, very significant minorities remain either steadfastly against it or unsure of their support. If the opposition can appeal to these voters, it could turn the tide against the Liberal government.

“Although support has slipped since last month, Liberal voter intent remains strong. There are potential head winds, however, that could prove detrimental to the Liberals. Namely, there is a sizable group of Canadians who have not formulated an opinion on the proposed tax changes. If the opposition parties can convince these people that the proposed reforms are not beneficial, it could spell trouble for the Liberals.” – Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc. Eli can be reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or (647) 931-4025 ext. 109.

METHODOLOGY

This online poll was conducted between October 8 and 11, 2017 among a panel of 2002 Canadian voters. A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2%, 19 out of 20 times.