Alexandra Glorioso and Amy Bennett Williams

USA TODAY NETWORK Florida

TAMPA — Into the humid Florida afternoon steps Becky McCaughey, a trash-bound box in one hand, a leash in the other.

The 53-year-old homemaker seems as quietly unassuming as her west Tampa neighborhood, which conservative blogger Ed Morrissey calls “the most generic place" he’s ever been, for its suburban gated communities and national chain strip malls.

Yet as ordinary as the neighborhood known as precinct 519 may appear, McCaughey and her nearly 840,000 fellow Hillsborough County voters are poised to roar in the Nov. 8 presidential election. The race for the White House will be decided by voters like McCaughey who live in a county that has picked the winner in 19 of the last 20 presidential elections, says Steve Schale, President Barack Obama’s 2008 Florida campaign director.

Precinct 519 is the quintessential swing precinct in the heart of the key swing region of the nation’s most important swing state. Case in point: After choosing Obama in 2012, the precinct’s voters veered hard right and elected his arch-critic Republican Rick Scott for governor in 2014. In both races, each candidate won the precinct by less than 2 percent of the vote.

“I was a Democrat for many years,” McCaughey says, as bulldog Josie Mae snuffles at her feet. “Now I’m a Republican. I wanted to vote in the primary for John McCain, so that’s why I switched, and then I never changed back.”

But after choosing GOP candidates in the last two presidential contests, McCaughey can’t say with any certainty what she’ll do next.

She sighs. “I’m 50/50 at this point. And my husband? I think he is too”

***

Hillsborough County is a model in miniature of the United States (though maybe not that miniature. At 1,266 square miles, it’s bigger than Rhode Island).

It's multicultural, multiracial and multi-political, with Democratic blue in the urban centers and Republican red on the outskirts, shot through with a fierce independent streak.

Hillsborough’s population of 1.3 million people is divided into three nearly equal political parts: 39 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican and 29 percent Independent or no party affiliation. The county, the fourth largest in the state, has one of the highest percentages of voters not choosing a party among Florida's 67 counties.

McCaughey came from Colorado, where there’s a Democratic governor and a divided Legislature. By way of Interstate 75, Tampa and much of Florida’s west coast also have a strong Midwestern influence, characterized by voters with a penchant for crossing party lines in state races, Schale says.

McCaughey, like many voters here, looks past party and weighs the good and bad of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump.

MAPS- Hillsborough County election results by precinct: 2012 presidential election | 2014 governor's race

“What really concerns me about Trump — and I know he’s kind of loud and whatever — is that he doesn’t have the political experience of Hillary.” McCaughey says.

No doubt Clinton is qualified, but her policies trouble McCaughey, especially support for the Affordable Care Act and gun restrictions that could threaten the Second Amendment.

"Since college, she’s been a social activist,” McCaughey says.

The choice likely will come down to the final days in this county, where the outcome is never guaranteed for either party.

Morrissey calls Hillsborough “Everytown America” in his book, “Going Red,” which looked at the west Florida county and six other battleground counties in the nation: Hamilton, Ohio; Wake, North Carolina; Prince William, Virginia; Jefferson, Colorado; Hillsborough, New Hampshire; and Brown County, Wisconsin.

All the counties represent large areas in their states, serve as bellwethers, and voted for George W. Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2008 and 2012.

“These are states that Republicans need to win. These are counties in those states that they have to compete in to win. And winning each of these seven counties is reflective of how well they are competing nationally,” says Morrissey.

Hillsborough “is really where the battleground is in Florida,” he says.

“We are a microcosm of what this battleground state of Florida represents,” declares Ana Cruz, the former head of the Florida Democratic Party, and a 43-year-old fourth-generation descendant of Cuban cigar-makers.

“Also, what our entire country looks like… urban areas… suburban areas and also rural areas. Also gender, and our demographics as it relates to Hispanic, black and Anglo voters,” she said, raising her voice to be heard over the lunchtime bustle at the West Tampa Sandwich Shop. “That diversity in geography and diversity in demographics makes Hillsborough County such a purple county.”

And if Hillsborough is any measure, things aren’t looking good for Trump. A Sept. 22 poll by St. Pete Polls, a Florida-only polling firm, has Clinton leading Trump 48 percent to 42 percent in Hillsborough among 1,902 likely voters surveyed, with a 2.2 percent margin of error.

But one thing is certain in Hillsborough. Votes can change.

***

Michele Shenefield, 40, snuggles up to her husband on the sleek black couch of the posh Hyde Park Buddy Brew coffee house in South Tampa where 30-somethings in workout clothes grab coffees from baristas in tattoos and multi-colored hair. Shenefield represents Clinton’s vulnerabilities in this swing county.

A white, female accountant from tiny Apollo Beach, Shenefield says she’s been a lifelong Democrat like the rest of her family. She voted for Obama in 2012 but will likely vote Trump in this election.

Clinton is struggling with her base here, polling at 73 percent among Democrats in Hillsborough, which is almost 10 points lower than her statewide polls and more than 10 points lower than her national.

While Clinton is beating Trump in every age category in the county, she has the narrowest lead among voters between 30 and 50 years old – just two points. In addition, white voters are the only demographic Trump leads in the county: 50 percent to Clinton’s 39 percent.

Trump’s low ratings among minorities mean he has to excel with white voters. Since he’s lagging with women, Shenefield is the perfect convert.

While she’s never considered switching her party to independent, Shenefield is pretty divided in her political values. She supports universal healthcare, one of Obama’s legacies, but believes the U.S. has an immigration problem.

Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn says Shenefield’s attitude is common among his constituents, who defy political ideology and make elections difficult to predict.

“People here tend to be rather pragmatic, rather practical, somewhat less partisan, which is a good thing as opposed to being rigid ideologues,” Buckhorn says. “People here are capable on any given year of voting D or voting R, depending on the candidate. And so I think this is a good test bed, if you will, for what’s going to happen in a couple of weeks.”

Shenefield doesn’t like either candidate, but she’s leaning toward Trump because she believes he “surrounds himself with highly intelligent people.”

She doesn't have a high opinion of Clinton's advisers. “I don’t want to use the word cronies but I don’t know of a better term.”

Shenefield doesn't care much for Clinton, either. “I just don’t believe a word she says.”

***

Elections 2016 Outlook: Florida

Further into South Tampa’s peninsula, historic Bayshore Boulevard sweeps for almost five elegantly balustraded miles along Hillsborough Bay’s west flank, lined with sleek offices and historic mansions. This is where Hillsborough’s educated elite live — people like Jonathan Sobin, a 65-year-old clinical psychologist.

Sobin is a registered independent who will be voting for Clinton. He often breaks for Democrats, saying, “I don’t relate to the pro-gun, anti-abortion people at all.”

A fiscal conservative and social liberal, Sobin says he voted for Obama in 2008 and then for Republican Mitt Romney in 2012. Romney won voters like Sobin with a college education statewide and nationwide, according to exit surveys of voters. But this time, Clinton has reversed the trend, carrying educated voters by several points over Trump in both state and national polls.

Sobin says it’s likely he would have voted for Clinton no matter who the Republican candidate was. But given her opponent, his choice is a “no brainer.”

Still, he confesses, the negative campaigning has dampened his enthusiasm for Clinton.

“I don’t think people are terribly enthusiastic for Hillary. And my own enthusiasm was diminished, sort of by this whole process over the last year. I sort of started to be persuaded a little bit about her being not on top of her game so much.”

Sobin's sentiment reflects a bigger problem for Clinton: If she isn’t inspiring her voters, they’re more likely to stay home. And that's good news for Trump, according to Schale and others who argue whoever turns out voters wins this election.

About 73 percent of Hillsborough voters turned out for the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections.

2016 Poll Tracker - USA TODAY

***



A table full of men sit in the buzzing Open Café, some eight miles northwest of Sobin in East Tampa. They’re there for lunch but the place is full of activity: Bible studies, political meetings, leisurely reading.

Directly across the street, St. John Cathedral’s sign reads, “GOD IS ALL YOU NEED.” Modest Southern houses with big porches define the residential streets.

The café is a central meeting point for a district where state House Rep. Ed Narain says about 60 percent of residents are black.

In Hillsborough, Clinton is polling most strongly among African Americans at 76 percent. But that's still several points below her state and national numbers, where she easily clears 80 percent.

In 2004, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry took over 85 percent of the black vote in both Florida and nationally, even though he lost by five points in Florida and by 31,444 votes in Hillsborough. Obama won in 2008 and 2012 with historic support from minorities and young people, a large part of the Democratic base. In both elections he got over 90 percent of the black vote, both in Florida and nationally. He also won Hillsborough by just over 36,000 votes each time.

In short, if Clinton doesn’t motivate heavy voter turnout in places like East Tampa, she could be in trouble.

Narain approaches twin tables where about 20 people are immersed in scriptural debate, most of them older.

“There’s been some rumors that Clinton doesn’t have the black vote,” Narain tells them.

Chairs push back as the group looks up in unison and all but shouts a chorus of No’s.

“Is anyone voting for Trump?” he asks. The group laughs.

Despite the support Clinton is pulling from African Americans, Narain acknowledges his constituents aren’t as excited as they were for Obama.

But Democrat Charles Thornton, 72, is “most definitely” voting for Clinton.

“I don’t think that she’s having a problem with the community. I think she’s blending in real well with them really,” Thornton says.

The Deciders: A look at 8 key counties that are going to help decide this election

***

Halfway between Tampa’s liberal city hub and Hillsborough’s conservative agricultural mecca is the small unincorporated area of Brandon, with a business center made up almost entirely of strip malls along the freeway. At one time deeply conservative, Brandon’s population is slowly shifting with an influx of Hispanics.

In 2012 and 2014 one of Brandon’s precincts went blue each time but with narrow margins. If Trump is going to pick off some conservative Democrats, this will be the place.

Earlene Calloway, 77, is a registered Democrat, but that doesn't define how she votes. Calloway, who says she skipped college to raise her family, is like many of her neighbors. Only six percent of Brandon’s population has a bachelor’s degree or higher, according to census data.

Democrats like Calloway are prone to cross over for Trump, part of his new Republican base of support. One of his strongest polling groups in Florida and the nation is voters lacking a college education — with about 48 percent support — and he’s doing even better among less educated white voters.

Trump has reversed the trend from the previous election. In 2012, over 50 percent of less educated voters broke for Obama in Florida and nationally, compared to about 40 percent for Clinton.

Calloway says she voted for George W. Bush twice and then Barack Obama twice. This year, she will be voting for Trump, whom she calls “as honest as the day is long.”

She's particularly attracted to Trump’s immigration policies.

“We’re getting in people that shouldn’t be here and there’s a lot of people paying for it that shouldn’t be paying for it,” Calloway says. “This is still our country and there are certain groups that are trying to take us over.”

***

East of Brandon lie the signature strawberry fields of Plant City, at Hillsborough County's edge.

Plant City is a blue nexus in a deeply red region. Even so, conservative sensibilities rule the small-town atmosphere with Republican state Rep. Dan Raulerson and plenty of far-right voters.

Raulerson says while he has a large conservative constituency, his district also extends north to liberal voters around the University of South Florida. His approach to governing echoes that of Buckhorn, Tampa’s pro-business, pro-Cuban embargo, centrist Democrat mayor. Buckhorn promotes the need to work across party lines.

Still, this should be a ripe field of voters for Trump. But as poorly as Clinton is doing with her base in Hillsborough, Trump is doing worse than his party predecessors. He’s polling at 70 percent among Republicans in the county, compared to more than 75 percent from Republicans in Florida and nationally.

For Plant City attorney David Galloway, voting for Trump is more a Republican duty than a point of pride.

“I don’t love Donald Trump. He disgusts me. The things that I find most disgusting about him are the things that play over and over and over and over again,” says Galloway, 64.

Romney, who according to exit polls took more than 90 percent of the Republican vote nationally and in Florida in his losing campaign, did similarly well among Republicans in Hillsborough, said former spokesman Ryan Williams.

Galloway, who lives downtown in the historic area, is counting on the structure of government to pull Trump to the “middle of the road” if he’s elected.

“Right now he’s saying things that a large percentage of the population likes to hear because we’re so sick and tired of being sick and tired of the vivid expletive that is going on, you know, in politics in the country.

"So, I assume that I’m going to vote for him because I think that any other vote would be wasted,' Galloway says. “But, like everybody else in America, I’m appalled that these are our choices.”