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For Toronto Maple Leafs fans, “the Nashville pick” has been a source of great speculation.

Leafs draft a stud defender with the Nashville pick. Leafs sign Franson. Leafs pair the stud defender with Franson, win Cup, drink tears. — Steve Dangle Glynn (@Steve_Dangle) May 23, 2015

Sure, the Noah Hanifin/Dylan Strome/Mitch Marner debate has raged on for weeks (even months). Who is the best fit for the Leafs? Who will be available? Is Hanifin really the next Niedermayer? Strome, the next Thornton? Marner, the next Gilmour?

But these top-tier talents are all quality choices. No matter how the top end of the draft breaks down, the Leafs are set to add a highly-regarded prospect to the depth charts with the fourth-overall pick.

Instead, wunderkind assistant GM Kyle Dubas has pointed out that the Nashville pick—acquired in the Cody Franson/Mike Santorelli deal—is the truly important selection for the Leafs’ rebuild:

Kyle Dubas on the NHL draft lottery & the importance of the #Leafs' second first-round pick http://t.co/IDkTNzwDdZ — Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) April 20, 2015

As Dubas says:

The focus, I think, for us – and where we have to really become a great organization – is on the second pick. The Nashville pick that we got in the trade for Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli. We have to make a good pick and hit on that one.

Who is that “hit” at the pick that is now locked at 24th?

Here’s a look at the players ranked 24th by five of the most widely-read draft ranking websites; NHL’s Central Scouting rankings, Craig’s List at TSN, the ISS Top 30, McKeen’s, and Draft Rankings by Future Considerations. Though we can hardly expect the draft to unfold the way any ranking predicts, these ranking lists provide a sense of which prospects are involved in the late-first-round “hit” that the Leafs want.

The list of skaters projected to be taken at 24th is diverse:

Skater Position Team Ranked 24th by… Highest Rank Lowest Rank** Fit for the Leafs Ryan Pilon D Brandon (WHL) NHL 24th 51st Played with Provorov in Brandon, which may have inflated production. Smart puck manager. If the Leafs get a forward at fourth overall, Pilon is a reasonable option. Filip Chlapik* C Charlottetown (QMJHL) NHL 18th* 46th Good skater with all-around offensive tools. Could be a fit if the Leafs land Hanifin with the fourth overall pick. Pavel Zacha C Sarnia (OHL) TSN 6th 24th Big, mean, possesses a terrific shot. Zacha would be an absolute steal at 24th. There’s very little chance he’s around as late as Button suggests. If he is, the Leafs will pounce. Denis Guryanov RW Togliatti Ladya (RusJr.) ISS 20th 30th Big, physical winger with solid offensive upside. But, the worry about selecting Russian prospects persists. With most of the Leafs’ European scouting presence fired, The Leafs aren’t likely to gamble in Russia. Jeremy Roy D Sherbrooke (QMJHL) McKeen’s 12th 27th Roy is noted for his two-way play, leadership, maturity, and some offensive touch. Ranked as high as 12th, Roy would be a very safe pick for the Leafs if he remains on the board at 24th. Oliver Kylington D Farjestad (SWE) FC 24th 47th Kylington’s stock has fallen off this season but his skating and untapped offensive potential from the blue line make him a first round pick. Very well could be available at 24th an will be worth a long look as a high-risk gamble.

*Pilon is Central Scouting’s 24th ranked North American skater, which excludes International Skaters. Approximately six international skaters are projected to be chosen before Pilon. If so, Filip Chlapik becomes the 24th ranked skater. Both players are profiled here for posterity.

Predicting the Nashville Pick

Forecasting the late first round is tough. Mark Hunter, director of player personnel, hasn’t tipped his hand at all. Nor has Dubas.

But, it is reasonable to conclude that the Leafs’ first selection will dictate their second choice at the draft. The two potential scenarios run like this:

Scenario 1: If the Leafs choose Marner or Strome (or Lawson Crouse? Just kidding. I think.)

If the Leafs secure a forward at fourth overall, it’s reasonable to think that the team will choose a defenseman with the Nashville draft pick. It’s no certainty. But a prospect depth chart as needy as Toronto’s needs to bring balance to all positions.

That’s where Jeremy Roy could fit.

Roy led all Sherbrooke defensemen in points with 43 points (5 goals, 38 assists) playing in only 46 games. He served as an assistant captain for Canada at the 2014 Ivan Hlinka Memorial and is noted for his intelligence and mobility.

If the Leafs finish the first round of the draft with Dylan Strome or Mitch Marner and Jeremy Roy, the prospect pool will be markedly deeper.

Scenario 2: If the Leafs choose Hanifin..

If the Leafs secure the swift-skating Hanifin with the fourth choice, look for the team to tab an offensive prospect with the Nashville pick.

And if it’s offense they want, Charlottetown Islanders’ center Filip Chlapik would be an intriguing choice.

In an interview with Yahoo! Sports‘ Neate Sager, Chlapik was open about his need to improve his skating, physicality, and shot generation. But, as Sager outlines, the 6’1, 196 lbs. Czech-native is a creative playmaker. Chlapik managed Islanders’ rookie records for goals (33) and points (75) and is an offensive gamble that could develop into a top-six scorer at the NHL level.

Hanifin and Chlapik as first round picks would set the Leafs up well with a top-notch defenseman prospect and an intriguing offensive player with upside.

While the debate will wear on until June 26, the Leafs are set to leave the entry draft in Florida with a pair of first round selections for the first time since 2011. That’s the year that the Leafs selected Tyler Biggs and Stuart Percy.

Though Percy may develop into a serviceable bottom-pair defender, Biggs typifies the type of first-round whiffs that have characterized the Leafs’ drafting record for years.

With Mark Hunter running the draft, and with Kyle Dubas in the management mix, Leafs fans should feel confident that this year’s pair of first rounders will outperform Biggs and Percy.

In Leafland, it’s all about hope.

What do you think, Leafs fans? Who should the Leafs target with the Nashville pick? Take the best player available? Take a flier on an high-risk, high reward type like Kylington?