As we’ve discussed a lot over the last few months, it‘s been an unusually hard to predict Oscar season, and even now, many, many pundits will admit they‘re more in the dark than usual about what will be on the Academy’s shortlist. But hey ,when has that ever stopped us from making bold predictions in the past? Below are our best predictions for what will be nominated in 21 Oscar categories (everything except the shorts). Prepare yourselves for the Thursday morning announcement accordingly, and don‘t be too mad at us if we got everything wrong: it‘s been a weird season!

BEST PICTURE

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Carol

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Spotlight

Straight Outta Compton

It’s not even remotely clear which movie will win, but you can be reasonably confident that Spotlight, The Big Short, The Revenant, and Carol will get nominations in the top category. The rest of these movies are pretty good bets, too, at least until you get to Mad Max and Straight Outta Compton, which feel a bit wobblier. A lot of people think Room will get nominated, but we don’t like the way its momentum has fizzled. Even though the Best Picture lineup almost always comprises nine titles rather than the allotted ten, this seems like the kind of mixed-up year where a long-shot could sneak in.

Dream Nomination: If we‘re betting on long shots, you could do worse than betting on Creed, which now seems destined to pick up a supporting actor trophy for Rocky Balboa Sylvester Stallone. —Mike Hogan

BEST DIRECTOR

Todd Haynes, Carol

Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Adam McKay, The Big Short

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Four of these five were recently honored by the Directors Guild of America, a group whose nominations usually line up very closely with the Academy . . . but not perfectly. And as Variety’s Kris Tapley has argued very convincingly, smaller, artier films tend to fare much better with the voters in the Academy’s director branch than the enormous DGA votership. Which is why we’re giving the edge to Carol’s quiet craftsman Todd Haynes over Mad Max: Fury Road’s George Miller—but barely. Remember the year that the DGA nominated both Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow and the Oscars snubbed both? This year is even harder to predict, and wild things could happen.

Dream Nomination: Ryan Coogler’s confident, muscular direction of Creed is a stunning statement of intent from a young director, on the level of Benh Zeitlin’s Oscar-nominated work on Beasts of the Southern Wild.Would that he could break through this white, middle-aged pack. —Katey Rich

__ BEST ACTOR__

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Matt Damon, The Martian

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Conventional wisdom has DiCaprio pretty much a lock for winning this thing. Among the other likely nominees, perhaps only Damon stands a chance of an upset. But it’s a dim chance. This category feels like one of the few sure-things in a wonderfully, maddeningly up-in-the-air Oscar season.

Dream Nomination: Jason Segel did such lovely, natural work as David Foster Wallace in The End of the Tour and yet has been largely overlooked for awards consideration. —Richard Lawson

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn