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PUMP UP THE WIRELESS HANDSET VOLUME.

No, I'm not talking about the audio level on your phone, but rather production levels at the big handset factories. Despite consumer fascination with the newest phone features, and anticipation of a Verizon Wireless-iPhone deal, the real smartphone story this year will be cost control. Carrier subsidies will peak, and wholesale asking prices for handsets should decline, says Charter Equity Research Analyst Ed Snyder. This trend should give high-volume manufacturers, such as Nokia (ticker: NOK) and Samsung (005930.Korea), an advantage as "scale becomes more important during a period of declining profits," says Snyder, who has often preached the importance of manufacturing scale when new handset technologies wend their way down-market.

If Verizon Wireless -- a joint venture of Verizon (VZ) and Britain's Vodafone (VOD) -- offers the iPhone later this year, Snyder expects droves of Verizon users to switch to the hit Apple (AAPL) product. This eventually will put pricing pressures on most of the rest, especially BlackBerry maker Research in Motion (RIMM), Motorola (MOT), and Palm (PALM), he says.

The loss of exclusivity on smartphones by carriers will drive down data pricing (for accessing photos, e-mail and the Web, for example). This will let consumers shop for the most attractive monthly data plans, while getting to buy the handsets of their choice. "This means that carriers will no longer be able to hold a hot new phone hostage to expensive data plans that consumers neither want nor need," Snyder posits. Crimped data revenue means that carriers probably will spend less on networks and gear, which bodes ill for suppliers LM Ericsson (ERIC) and Nokia Siemens.

A smartphone price war (it probably would exclude the up-market iPhone) should favor Nokia, which " excels at low-cost production," Snyder says. Look for the Finnish company, which announces earnings Thursday, to preserve market share and profits, while its stock continues to struggle during early 2010. But expect a rebound by mid-year, Snyder says.

As for Motorola, which also reports results Thursday, its mobile-devices division is enjoying higher profit margins than expected, thanks to solid Droid phone sales, which could propel it into the black by mid-year. Motorola's success has exposed the challenge that Research in Motion's BlackBerry faces in the fiercely competitive consumer market. But look for RIM to hold serve among corporate customers (RIM reports earnings on March 31). Palm will benefit from marketing pushes by AT&T (T) and Verizon, but it faces the daunting task of differentiating its webOS handsets from Google's (GOOG) Android phones, produced by Motorola and HTC (2498.Taiwan).

WEATHER REPORT: Amazon.com (AMZN) is leading the way in public cloud computing. The e-tailer has introduced "spot pricing" for companies that buy computing capability from it, delivered from its Web Services' cloud. This should boost Amazon's cloud revenue, but by how much is unknown, says ISI Technology's Bill Whyman. Initial customers include Pfizer (PFE), he adds. "This is likely to magnify average price declines for computing over time and shift [tech] spending to Amazon and other providers," the analyst contends.