China's power over Asia-Pacific rising partly due to Donald Trump, Lowy's Asia Power Index says

Updated

China is closing in on America's dominance of the Asia-Pacific region, in part due to the Trump administration's policies, according to a new analysis from the Lowy Institute.

Key points: Lowy Institute experts have ranked China second according to the power it wields in the Asia-Pacific, with the US coming in first

However, the power differential between the US and China is reportedly shrinking

The report found domestic economic growth and the retreat of the US from the region are responsible for China's increase

Lowy's Asia Power Index also shows Australia's efforts to exert influence in the region have flat-lined because of the recent churn in Prime Ministers.

The annual Index ranks 25 countries according to the power they wield in the Asia-Pacific, based on 126 factors that assess everything from economic resources and military capability, to diplomatic networks and cultural influence.

The United States, ranked first, and China, second, are clear super powers, but Lowy Institute researcher Herve Lemahieu found the "power differential between the US and China is shrinking".

"The US maintains some degree of primacy in our region, but China is closing that gap very quickly," he said.

Data from the Index suggests there are two factors driving China's increase in power: its domestic economic growth and the retreat of the US from the region.

Although the rate of China's economic growth is slowing, it is still expanding in absolute terms.

"In 2018 it still grew by greater than the size of Australia's economy," said Mr Lemahieu.

"So, the sheer scale of China's arrival on the international stage is hard to avoid."

He also points to China taking advantage of a "void" of US political leadership under the presidency of Donald Trump.

China "has been able to proactively build diplomacy around its economic largesse, around the Belt and Road Initiative, and is front and centre of geopolitical developments in the region."

But China's growing power in the Asia-Pacific faces a major challenge from within — the ageing of its society.

Around 160 million people will go into retirement over the next 15 years.

"That will presage all sorts of social and political challenges for the Communist Party to deal with … a shifting burden of expectations to do with the provision of basic public goods, like health care.

"The biggest challenger to China's rise is not the United States, but China itself."

Australia's power 'flat' because of 'political churn'

Australia is ranked seventh on the index — just behind South Korea and Russia — the same position it held last year.

Australia's performance "is essentially quite flat" with the only notable improvement being the economic relationship formed through trade deals, such as the TPP-11.

Mr Lemahieu said Australia's diplomatic influence has suffered because of "the political churn of events in Canberra over the last year".

The leadership spills have "impacted the ability of Australian leaders to form lasting relationships with their counterparts in Asia".

By comparison, New Zealand, ranked 12th, is growing in power, in part due to Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's pursuit of her country's interests on the international stage.

The research behind the Asia Power Index shows Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison is "comparatively unknown in the region," according to Mr Lemahieu.

"The results reflect the personality dynamics behind power, because power is more than just the sum of economic resources or military spending.

"It's not just what you have, but what you do with what you have."

North Korea's Kim Jong-un the bigger winner in power stakes

The country to experience the most significant increase in power over the last 12 months has been North Korea, albeit starting from a low base.

"That reflects a very successful year for Kim Jong-un. His status has been elevated on the world stage with the summit diplomacy and his treatment as an equal counterpart to Donald Trump."

Those summits "have partially normalised North Korea's diplomatic standing in the region".

Sorry, this video has expired Video: Donald Trump said he was in no rush to strike a deal with North Korea in February (ABC News)

Japan and India, ranked third and fourth respectively, also wield significant power in the region but in very different ways.

Japan is presented as an overachiever leveraging its diplomacy and economics to influence the region, while India has less influence than it should, given its size and resources.

The escalating trade tensions between the US and China are dominating the region's economic and diplomatic outlook over the next 12 months.

But the United States and China are less likely to be affected by any fallout from the dispute than smaller nations more dependent on trade.





Topics: government-and-politics, foreign-affairs, defence-and-national-security, defence-forces, defence-industry, business-economics-and-finance, world-politics, international-law, unrest-conflict-and-war, australia

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