58% of the British public agree with the statement that “it doesn’t make much difference to my daily life who wins the general elections these days – there’s very little real difference between the main political parties” (YouGov, 2012).

of the British public agree with the statement that “it doesn’t make much difference to my daily life who wins the general elections these days – there’s very little real difference between the main political parties” (YouGov, 2012). 53% say they don’t “feel able to vote for a party that represents my views and concerns” (YouGov, 2012).

say they don’t “feel able to vote for a party that represents my views and concerns” (YouGov, 2012). and almost 60% of young people say they won’t vote in the 2015 election (YouGov, 2014).

Mainstream media outlets often refer to the public’s “apathy” and “disillusionment” with politics, but less often do they specifically address the possibility that the “centre ground” of political parties is far from that of the public.

Probably the best way of measuring what the public thinks is by looking at opinion polls of the last few years; specifically those which refer to issues in isolation as opposed to those referring to political parties or politicians.

IS THE POPULATION TO THE LEFT, NEAR THE CENTRE, OR TO THE RIGHT OF MAINSTREAM POLITICAL PARTIES ON THE FOLLOWING ISSUES?

All polls and surveys, unless stated otherwise, come from the British Polling Council members YouGov, Comres, ICM, Populus and Ipsos Mori, whose samples must be representative of the national population. For the purpose of this, the Labour and Conservative parties are used as markers of the political centre ground.

Distribution of wealth

56% of the public said they favoured a more equal distribution of the UK’s wealth, “even if the total amount of wealth was reduced“, against only 17% who would rather see greater inequality but greater overall wealth (YouGov, 2014).

of the public said they favoured a more equal distribution of the UK’s wealth, “even if the total amount of wealth was reduced“, against only 17% who would rather see greater inequality but greater overall wealth (YouGov, 2014). Another survey found that 56% say wealth is not distributed evenly enough, 22% say it is “about right”, and only 9% say it should be more unequal (YouGov, 2014).

say wealth is not distributed evenly enough, 22% say it is “about right”, and only 9% say it should be more unequal (YouGov, 2014). Ed Miliband supports a 50% top tax rate – which 68% of the public also support – but polls show the public would be happy to take it to 60% (at a margin of 48% against 34%) (Comres, 2012).

of the public also support – but polls show the public would be happy to take it to 60% (at a margin of 48% against 34%) (Comres, 2012). An ICM poll asked 2000 British people how they thought wealth in the UK should roughly be distributed, across each fifth of the population. The results are visualised below by Inequality Briefing:

The public believe on average that the richest fifth should have about 25% of total wealth and the poorest fifth only 15%. The current reality is that the richest fifth have around 60% of total wealth and the poorest fifth have around 0.6%. The results also show that the population vastly underestimates the scale of wealth inequality whereas politicians are continually made aware of these levels.

VERDICT: In polls regarding wealth distribution, the public are well to the left of the Conservatives and probably to the left of Labour, given that they support some policies which would distribute wealth to an even greater extent than those proposed by Ed Miliband, who is often regarded as a “left-wing” leader even by the standards of his party. The “ideal” distribution that the population would like to see and the one they believe currently exists are both incredibly far from the distribution overseen by all governments of the last 30 years.

Capitalism and corporations

Relatedly, Populus asked both the public and MPs from all parties whether they generally viewed capitalism as a “force for ill” or a “force for good”. It found that “capitalism is more likely to be regarded as a force for ill than for good by the public, while MPs – particularly Conservative MPs – generally regard it as a force for good“.

The public overwhelmingly agree that “whichever party wins the next election, the government needs to be tougher on big business” (Populus, 2014):

VERDICT: When it comes to capitalism, the public is to the left of every mainstream party, including Labour. The views of Conservative MPs on capitalism are far away from any of the public, including their own voters. On big business, the public’s ideology is well to the left of the Conservatives (who cut corporation tax), and at least as far left as Ed Miliband’s promise to regulate big business. Though the strength of support for this is very high, there is no way of quantifying whether Ed Miliband’s promises are more or less to the left than public opinion.

The minimum wage

There is widespread public support, across all party supporters, for an “immediate” and “substantial” minimum wage increase (YouGov, 2014):

YouGov “opinion formers” (who are “leaders in their field” from business to arts and culture) also strongly support a minimum wage rise, to at least £7.49 or more.

The Conservatives suggest raising the minimum wage to £7 in 2015 (85p lower than the living wage, the amount needed to cover the basic costs of living), while Labour promises to raise it to £8, but by 2020, by which time it would have increased fairly close to that value anyway because of inflation.

VERDICT: On the minimum wage, the population are to the left of the Conservatives, and appear to be somewhere close to or perhaps further to the left than the proposals of Labour.

Working hours

The public support “the introduction of a four day week” by more than 2 to 1 (YouGov, 2014):

No mainstream political party proposes a review of working hours.

VERDICT: On this issue, the population is to the left of both the Conservatives and Labour, who both currently support the British opt-out of the Working Time Directive, which makes the UK the only EU country where working more than 48 hours is still legal on a widespread basis.

Nationalisation

All sectors of the population say they support the nationalisation of both energy and rail companies, including Conservative voters. The public support for both is around 3 to 1:

Labour are proposing to partially re-nationalise railways, but not energy companies. The Conservatives do not support any nationalisation, and some say (like Guardian writer Owen Jones or the Huffington Post) that the party will try to implement a covert process of partial NHS privatisation, which 84% of the public would oppose.

VERDICT: The population is well to the left of the Conservatives and also to the left of Labour on the issue of nationalisation.

Energy

As well as supporting nationalisation of energy companies, the public also very strongly support renewable energy policies.

57% said the UK should commit to generating most of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030 with only 10% of respondents opposing the idea (YouGov, 2012).

said the UK should commit to generating most of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030 with only 10% of respondents opposing the idea (YouGov, 2012). 74% say the UK should utilise solar power more than it currently is, and 56% say the same for wind farms (YouGov, 2011). (The Sunday Times commissioned this poll but declined to report the results.)

The Conservatives have announced a plan for a small increase in solar power, but have relaxed regulations and taxes on non-renewable energy, and two-thirds of Conservative MPs don’t think renewable energy is good for the economy. Labour echo the above poll by saying they aim to “make the UK’s energy supply carbon-free by 2030“, but don’t mention solar or wind power anywhere in their 55 page manifesto summary. The New Economics Foundation, an independent think-tank, commented in October 2014 that:

“Labour’s Ed Miliband claimed that for him there is ‘no more important issue’ than tackling climate change, but the only supporting evidence to emerge from the Labour party conference was a new energy efficiency plan […] it falls short of the long-term vision and strategy we need from Westminster.”

VERDICT: Though it is harder to judge here, the public is at least as ideologically progressive as Labour on renewable energy, and probably more so.

Drugs

60% of the population call for a review of the decriminalisation of drugs (with majority support across party lines) against 20% who oppose it, and 54% support limited trials of the Portuguese approach (decriminalising the possession of drugs) (YouGov, 2012).

of the population call for a review of the decriminalisation of drugs (with majority support across party lines) against 20% who oppose it, and support limited trials of the Portuguese approach (decriminalising the possession of drugs) (YouGov, 2012). The support for a review rose was polled at 67% in 2013, when a majority of 53% also said they wanted cannabis legalised or decriminalised (Ipsos Mori, 2013).

Labour currently have no plans to review drug decriminalisation (the issue is not yet mentioned in their manifesto). The Conservatives actively blocked an attempt at the kind of drugs policy review that 67% of the public and 70% of their voters support ideologically.

VERDICT: The public is to the left of both parties on this issue.

Immigration

56% of the population want immigration to be “reduced a lot” (The Migration Observatory).

Labour propose “tough and fair” immigration “controls” with no promise to “cut” or “reduce” immigration. The Conservatives say they want Britain to have “the toughest system on welfare for EU migrants anywhere in Europe”.

VERDICT: The public therefore probably tend towards the right on this issue, although this one is difficult to quantify.

Crime, punishment and surveillance

Around 80% of the public say that crime laws are “too lenient” (Michael Ashcroft, 2011. Michael Ashcroft is not a British Polling Council member, but his polls are generally regarded as objective). 45% against 39% support the death penalty for murderers, though this is a drop on previous figures (YouGov, 2014).

of the public say that crime laws are “too lenient” (Michael Ashcroft, 2011. Michael Ashcroft is not a British Polling Council member, but his polls are generally regarded as objective). 45% against 39% support the death penalty for murderers, though this is a drop on previous figures (YouGov, 2014). 58%, however, say that “prison doesn’t work” (Michael Ashcroft, 2011).

53% against 31% support a “snooper’s charter” so companies can retain data on the public for security purposes, though more people oppose a ban on encryption than support it (YouGov, 2015). These polls were commissioned by the Sunday Times immediately after the attack on the magazine Charlie Hebdo, and so are likely to be represent a temporary bias towards heightened security measures.

The Conservatives propose heightened security powers (which the public support) and a ban on encryption (which the public marginally say they reject), and have suggested tougher sentences for knife crime, which Ed Miliband says he supports.

VERDICT: In these polls, the public are probably at least to the political centre-right on issues of surveillance (though there may be some temporary bias), and possibly to the right of both parties on issues of prison sentences.

From the polls and surveys above, the population is generally to the left – often radically so – of mainstream political parties on many major issues: distribution of wealth, capitalism, minimum wage, working hours, renewable energy, drugs, and the nationalisation/privatisation of rail companies, energy companies and the NHS. On immigration, crime and security, the population generally tends towards the right, though rarely beyond Conservative policy.

This conclusion is largely supported by the results of the Vote for Policies experiment which presents a detailed survey on major issues and is based on policies alone; it doesn’t reveal which party each policy originates from. Users take the survey to see which party they “should be voting for”. Here are the results:

The test is not free from bias because the descriptions come from party manifestos, so manipulative rhetoric may still have an impact. The site does not offer a control question regarding prior voting intention, so it’s not possible to say how much these results differ from the usual voting intentions of those taking the survey (i.e. there may be bias towards the Green Party if young people are more likely to find and complete an online survey like this one).

If the survey is reasonably representative then it indicates that the centre ground of the public may be far to the left of the centre ground of mainstream politics, and perhaps also to the centre ground of “impartial” media outlets like the BBC, who aim to “give due prominence to all the main parties“.

It also points towards the fact that the policies of the Green Party ideologically align with the opinions expressed in the above polls to a greater degree than those of Labour and the Conservatives. They propose, for instance, a more equal distribution of wealth, a minimum wage of £8.17, working hour laws in line with the rest of Europe (which the UK currently doesn’t have), greater controls on the power of corporations, nationalisation of railways, a shift towards renewable energy, and a review of drug laws.

Even if the polls above are an accurate reflection of public opinion, there are many explanations for why the population still votes in large numbers for parties that they feel don’t represent their ideological views.

The polls and surveys don’t show that the population is either right or wrong, but they do show that on a lot of major issues, the political “centre ground” may be far to the right of the population.

You can take the Vote for Policies test here.

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