Nate Silver, January 20: “With the limited information available to us now, in mid-January 2012, the most probable scenario is that Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination and go on to lose the election to Barack Obama by 126 electoral votes. Leaked comments disparaging 47 percent of Americans as ‘entitled’ will hurt Romney, as will Obama’s heroic resolve in the face of Hurricane Sandy’s destruction. Weed will be legalized in Colorado and Washington, Petraeus will resign amid disgrace, and I’m going with Giants over Patriots, 21-17.”