Turnaround, or just 'better than expected?'

Luntz on the debate: Tonight was so significant that Trump is back in the race

I’ll have more on “the tape” later today. Until then, suffice it to say that - like pollster Frank Luntz - I spent the weekend assuming it was all over for Donald Trump. After all, he’s a candidate who was just barely holding on to his place in the polls as it was. His remarks, however much his supporters might not care about them, delivered a severe blow precisely to his weakest spot. According to Luntz and his focus group, last night’s debate went a long way toward undoing that damage. As he put it:

“This is the first time of the three debates that there has benn any genuine movement. I have to acknowledge something here: I thought that it was all over for Donald Trump and when these people walked in here, I was pretty sure of it. Based on their response ...I have to change my mind. I actually think that tonight was so significant that he is back in this race.” Here’s the data that lead him to his conclusion: Focus Group: Who are you willing to vote for?



BEFORE #DEBATE

• Hillary: 8

• Trump: 9



AFTER DEBATE

• Hillary: 4

• Trump: 18 — Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) October 10, 2016

Now, I’ll be honest. I’m not as convinced as Luntz is. I still think Trump is behind a rather enormous 8-Ball. However, I will say this: Trump stopped the bleeding. His performance will probably stem the tide of GOP defectors, may halt his slide in the polls, and will go a long way toward changing the narrative that was established Friday. Was it enough to turn the numbers back in his direction? Alone, probably not. However, if he can build on it he may have given himself the foundation for renewed momentum. We’ll see… In the meantime, here’s the video of Luntz and his focus group. The outcome is pretty interesting. ...As is the look on Megyn Kelly’s face when it ends.

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