By his own admission, Ryerson University economist Frank Clayton can be a contrarian.

He doesn’t believe the suburbs are dead. He doesn’t think millennials will be the last generation to covet the sprawling space of detached homes in favour of high-rise living, and he doesn’t think all seniors want to move into condos.

“Not everybody wants to be downtown,” says the senior research fellow at the Ryerson's Centre for Urban Research and Land Development.

After decades of analyzing the empty-nester/seniors housing market, he’s also come to the conclusion that: “The willingness of people to move out of their existing home is a lot less than analysts often think.

“Some people are actually moving, but other people like the garden, the low density and their housing costs are very low out of pocket because their mortgage is paid off. They have no great reason to move. The bulk of people are staying put. That’s the biggest reason listings are down,” he said.

Clayton is the organizing force behind a summit of housing experts gathering on Wednesday at Ryerson to discuss the pervasive question of when the Toronto real estate bubble pops.

“Every bubble bursts,” he said last week and, while he admits his crystal ball can be cloudy, he advises you get out the tools and paint brushes if you've been waiting to list your house.

“Start to think the peak is here or is going to be very soon. It’s like calling the stock market. You have a target. You know it’s not going to keep going up when you have a share of some company. The (housing) market’s the same way. Having said that, my view is that prices are not going to decline,” he said, at least when it comes to the low-rise housing category that includes detached, semi-detached and townhomes.

“The condo market is a much harder one to figure out because it depends what investors do. The condo market is more susceptible to some larger adjustment,” he said.

Clayton doesn't subscribe to the idea that the Toronto region is only a generation or two from adapting a preference for vertical living. His study last year, called Population Dynamics in the Greater Golden Horseshoe — Millennials vs. Baby Boomers, suggests otherwise, he said.

About 46 per cent of the GTA’s 1.4 million millennials live in Toronto. More than half still live in the 905 communities, he said.

While many of those are caught up in the condo boom — and corporate offices are moving downtown to attract those workers — they tend to be the more highly educated, higher-earning millennials.

But not all of that demographic can afford downtown, and those who can are aging and having children. They want space. Millennials are a big part of the 905-area housing boom where prices are rising just as they are in the city, said Clayton.

“Everybody would like to live in Rosedale or Lawrence Park, but they can't afford it. So now they’re having to go to that inner suburb of Scarborough, Etobicoke or Long Branch. Then they stretch even more,” said Clayton.

Meanwhile, environmentally motivated provincial land use policy and density targets are driving up home prices for the majority that wants the space of the suburbs.

“As an economist, I’m a believer in something called cost-benefit analysis. You want to benefit the environment. At what cost? At least look at the cost and then you’ll probably do some trade-offs. You won’t move as fast,” he said.

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It's one of the subjects underlying Wednesday’s housing conference, said Clayton.

“Our mandate here at the Ryerson University Centre for Urban Research and Land Development is just to get economics into the public policy discussion of housing or urban policies.”