New home market moderates as more people leave Houston than come here

New development is growing in a former heavily industrial area in Shady Acres in Houston, Monday, April 22, 2019. New development is growing in a former heavily industrial area in Shady Acres in Houston, Monday, April 22, 2019. Photo: Mark Mulligan, Houston Chronicle / Staff Photographer Photo: Mark Mulligan, Houston Chronicle / Staff Photographer Image 1 of / 1 Caption Close New home market moderates as more people leave Houston than come here 1 / 1 Back to Gallery

Houston builders will start roughly 30,000 homes across the area in each of the next two years, maintaining their recent pace of construction primarily due to limited lot availability, a housing analyst predicted Thursday.

But there may be another reason for the lack of growth: more people leaving Houston than coming here from other parts of the country.

Houston experienced negative domestic migration for the second straight year, according to a recent report from the Greater Houston Partnership and echoed Thursday morning during a quarterly briefing on the homebuilding industry. The U.S. Census Bureau estimated the loss at 19,500 residents over the past two years. Earlier in the decade, domestic migration annually exceeded 60,000.

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"That frankly surprised the heck out of me," said Lawrence Dean, Metrostudy's Houston regional director.

While the negative migration in 2017 was likely the result of a weak economy, last year's decline was due to Houstonians leaving after Hurricane Harvey, according to the Partnership's report.

"The storm destroyed or significantly damaged nearly 100,000 homes. Rather than rebuild those houses, many residents chose to relocate to less-flood-prone cities," the report said.

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Dean delivered a mostly positive update about the Houston-area homebuilding market on Thursday.

Builders in the Houston area -- the second-largest new-home market behind Dallas -- started 30,206 new homes over the past 12 months, up 9.1 percent over a year earlier.

The majority of the activity has been in the $200,000 to $400,000 price range.