And finally, let's start thinking about 2016:

Hillary's favorability with Iowa Democrats: 90/6 — PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) July 18, 2012

Hillary's got it in the bag. End of.

Now here's an interesting story from the Huffington Post:

Mitt Romney has been determined to resist releasing his tax returns at least since his bid for Massachusetts governor in 2002 and has been confident that he will never be forced to do so, several current and former Bain executives tell the Huffington Post. Had he thought otherwise, say the sources based on their longtime understanding of Romney, he never would have gone forward with his run for president. Bain executives say they've been instructed to keep company and Romney-specific information completely confidential, tightening the lockdown on an already closed company.

Yes, but what's really interesting is the byline: Abby Huntsman (oh and Ryan Grim, sorry Ryan), daughter of Jon. Talk about dynastic rivalry: just wait for the 2040 Republican primary when Abby runs against Tagg Romney. Hopefully I'll be dead by then.

Awkward. Those clever kids at BuzzFeed Politics dig out the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics website, and Mitt Romney's bio on the site from 2001. And guess what it says?

Romney is the founder and CEO of Bain Capital Inc, a private holding company with portfolio company revenues in excess of $13bn.

Nice use of the present tense there. But just because he was chief executive at the time doesn't mean he was doing any chief executiving.

With a Democratic attack ad idly speculating that Mitt Romney may not have paid "any taxes at all" at some point, Politico's Alexander Burns actually asks the Romney campaign:

So I asked the Romney campaign: Can they knock down that possibility? Was there any year in which Romney paid $0? "Not true," replied Romney press secretary Andrea Saul. That doesn't preclude the possibility that Romney paid very little in taxes in 2009 or another year, or that there's something else in his taxes he'd prefer not to share with the public. The guessing game over that will surely continue until and unless Romney puts out more information.

Maybe the actual result was this?

Oh it's another dancing horse attack ad aimed at Mitt Romney from the Democratic National Committee:

Titled "Mitt Dancing Around The Issues Volume II: Autos ," it's not as good as the previous effort. Novelty wearing off?

The Guardian's Gary Younge takes on the parallels between the two most recent presidential candidates from Massachusetts – John Kerry in 2004 and Mitt Romney in 2012 – and says both men had something in common in how they were treated by the opposition:

To compare this to "swiftboating" is inaccurate. The swiftboaters traded in clear inaccuracies, relied on a rightwing echo chamber and – while doing the GOP's bidding – kept at least the appearance of distance from George W Bush. The attacks related to Bain originated in the Republican party, now come straight from the president and have a basis in truth (although how relevant the truths are is debatable). But there is this similarity between Kerry's and Romney's predicament. In both cases, his opponent's strategy of going negative gained traction not because of the veracity of the particular accusations, but because they confirmed a perception already in play about the candidate's character, a perception that had some basis in reality.

Never mind Mitt Romney not releasing more tax returns – it seems that even the tax return he has published, for 2010, was incomplete in some key respects.

The Huffington Post has been doing a good job, and gives us this nugget:

Romney released his 2010 tax return in January of this year, a document that first informed voters about the existence of his Swiss bank account and financial activities in Bermuda and the Cayman Islands. But people who own foreign bank accounts are required to file a separate document with the IRS that provides additional details on such overseas bank holdings, and Romney has not released that form to the public. The Romney campaign did not respond to HuffPost's request to view the document.

So, "his Swiss bank account and financial activities in Bermuda and the Cayman Islands" – what could possibly be the problem there?

Sorry for the brief break in live-blogging there, owing to high-powered strategy meeting. I don't want to give anything away but there's an election coming.

John McCain has shown flashes of his old self today, with a spirited defence of the State Department's Huma Abedin – coincidentally the partner of disgraced congressman Anthony Weiner – over outrageous slurs from the likes of Michele Bachmann.

The Huffington Post reports:

Senator John McCain vigorously defended top State Department official Huma Abedin against allegations by Representative Michele Bachmann and other conservatives that this Muslim-American woman is part of a Muslim Brotherhood conspiracy to infiltrate the US government. "These allegations about Huma and the report from which they are drawn are nothing less than an unwarranted and unfounded attack on an honorable woman, a dedicated American and a loyal public servant," said McCain in a speech on the Senate floor on Wednesday morning.

By way of background, McCain was responding to recent accusations by Bachmann and other Republicans that Abedin – a Muslim America – is part of a conspiracy led by the Muslim Brotherhood to influence US foreign policy.

So how's the Mitt Romney "gloves are off" counter-attack going to work?

According to BuzzFeed Politics, the Romney folk are really digging up the dirt:

In the next chapter of Boston's pushback — which began last week when they began labeling Obama a "liar" — very little will be off-limits, from the president's youthful drug habit, to his ties to disgraced Chicago politicians. "I mean, this is a guy who admitted to cocaine use, had a sweetheart deal with his house in Chicago, and was associated and worked with Rod Blagojevich to get Valerie Jarrett appointed to the Senate," the adviser said. "The bottom line is there'll be counterattacks."

Drugs! Rod Blagojevich! Tony Rezko!

That's it? Here's what happened in 2008: the GOP focused grouped those lines of attacks and they just didn't work. Now, four years on the Obama brand is tarnished rather more by the rough and tumble of politics and the economy, so maybe they will take off this time. But because it's under the label of "old news", it's not like there's a bombshell hidden there.

"All these details we know about Obama's early life prove he wasn't vetted." — keptsimple (@keptsimple81) July 18, 2012

As a Democrat responded later:

"W-T-F," one top Democrat emailed BuzzFeed. "This is insane. Do they even know what they're doing anymore?"

Ann Romney's unusually prominent role in her husband's presidential campaign is a subject in its own right – but in the meantime, here's her comments on the VP selection process, in an interview with ABC News:

We are certainly talking a lot. This last week, this last weekend, there was a lot of discussion. There was a lot of talk. We're not quite there yet. And we're going to be there soon.

Talk, talk, talk. But there's this:

The comments followed similar remarks she made in an interview with ABCNews.com moments before she sat down with Roberts. "I'll wait and see, too, what Mitt is going to decide," she said. "I have no knowledge of what, when, or who is going to be coming down the road. So, I'll stay tuned with you."

Signs of the apocalypse, via CNN:

Tonight Piers Morgan sits down with Justice Antonin Scalia and Bryan Garner from the Supreme Court in an exclusive interview.

Now there's a surprise – Piers Morgan still has a show? And Scalia wants to go on it?

Explanation: like a lot of the celebrities who appear on Piers Morgan's show, Scalia (and Garner) have a book out, in this case Reading Law: The Interpretation of Legal Texts:

Is a burrito a sandwich? Is a corporation entitled to personal privacy? If you trade a gun for drugs, are you "using a gun" in a drug transaction?

Mitt Romney's attempts to explain why he's not going to release any more of his tax returns – other than 2010 and his stated commitment to publish his 2011 returns – seem extraordinarily defensive:

Romney said he would not give in to mounting attacks over his refusal to release his tax returns prior to 2010, including calls from some Republican allies to disclose the records and end the controversy. "In the political environment that exists today, the opposition research of the Obama campaign is looking for anything they can use to distract from the failure of the president to reignite our economy," Romney told the conservative National Review Online. "I'm simply not enthusiastic about giving them hundreds or thousands of more pages to pick through, distort and lie about," he told the magazine, which itself later published an editorial urging Romney to release more tax returns.

So he's not publishing them because his political opponents might say something bad about them? Having said that his tax records may amount to "thousands of more pages" is in itself revealing.

Here's what the National Review's editors had to say on the subject, in an editorial that urged Romney to publish his tax returns:

In all likelihood, he won't be able to maintain a position that looks secretive and is a departure from campaign conventions. The only question is whether he releases more returns now, or later — after playing more defense on the issue and sustaining more hits. There will surely be a press feeding frenzy over new returns, but better to weather it in the middle of July.

That's probably right. When withholding the tax returns proves to be a bigger negative than publishing them, they'll come out. Expect to see Romney publish them – let's see – in the middle of the Olympic men's 100m finals.

You get the impression that someone in the Obama campaign is having a lot of fun. Here's another video – web only – deploying the old trick of getting "members of the public" to read out complex statements.

Obviously it doesn't amount to much but as a means of making a dull issue interesting, it does the trick. And it would have cost like $1.27 to make.

A sign that Romney's Boston HQ may be losing its grip: new details from the latest ABC News-Washington Post poll suggests voters aren't delighted by Romney's campaign so far.

From ABC News's The Note:

President Obama and his allies have been piling on presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney with one negative attack after the other, and our latest ABC News-Washington Post poll shows that more voters disapprove of the way Romney is running his campaign than the way Obama is running his. In fact, only 38% of Americans in the poll express a favorable opinion of the way Romney is running his presidential bid compared to 46% for Obama.

Why is that important? Well, it's not – but it may betray unhappiness among Republicans at the relative ineffectiveness of the Romney campaign. But it matters only insofar as an indication of enthusiasm and likely turn-out.

The Wall Street Journal piece quoted earlier on Mitt Romney's vice presidential pick has some meat on its bones:

It appears unlikely now that Mr Romney will name his selection before departing next week for a trip abroad. Unveiling a vice-presidential pick before then would detract attention from a trip to the London Olympics that would allow Mr Romney to showcase his success running the 2002 Salt Lake City Games, followed by a stop in Israel and perhaps elsewhere to show his grasp of foreign policy.

And stuff such as this:

The Romney team has confirmed little about the shortlist of contenders, but the small cadre of senators, governors and House members campaigning for Mr Romney has provided clues. The first consideration, aides say, is that the person be ready to serve as president.

Hmm, well that narrows it down to none.

Mitt Romney's campaign is said to be preparing to hit back with a barrage of negative attacks aimed at Barack Obama, after two weeks in which the Republican candidate has struggled to maintain his campaign's focus.

With the Republican presidential nominee under pressure over his refusal to release tax returns detailing his investments and income up until 2010, his campaign is blaming the Democratic party for the negative tone that has pervaded the presidential contest.

Here's a brief summary of the latest news:

• Anonymous Romney advisors told BuzzFeed Politics's McKay Coppins the GOP candidate campaign's "pushback" will soon begin in earnest, and that "very little will be off-limits, from the president's youthful drug habit, to his ties to disgraced Chicago politicians". The Romney sources blame their opponents for the negative turn in the electioneering.

• While Romney's advisors are talking the talk, the Democratic party is doing the walking with a brutal new ad from the DNC that ropes in Mitt Romney's expensive Olympic-calibre dressage pony Rafalca.

Titled "Mitt Dancing Around The Issues," the ad evokes the 2004 attack on Democratic candidate John Kerry for being a flip-flopper, over footage of Kerry windsurfing. The footage here uses Mitt Romney's awkward answers to questions about his tax status – including one from a GOP candidate's debate in which Republicans in the audience actually booed Romney's response.

• The Romney campaign is unlikely to make public its vice presidential choice until after the Olympics, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. The WSJ reports: "One person familiar with the vetting process said Mr Romney was likely to name his pick after he returns from abroad but weeks before the convention begins August 27, because the campaign envisions Mr Romney and his No 2 touring the country together, in large part to raise money." That would suggest sometime around the middle of August.

• The Associated Press raised eyebrows with an article that began "Investigators for an Arizona sheriff's volunteer posse say President Barack Obama's birth certificate is definitely fraudulent." Critics say that use of "definitely" in the introduction by the AP imparts credibility to something that is obviously nonsense.