Washington And The World The Chart That Explains Why Ukraine Can't Fight Russia

Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group and a global research professor at New York University. You may follow him on Twitter @ianbremmer.

T he right statistic is often worth a thousand words—and sometimes much more than that. These five weekly data points, put together by Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the risk consultancy Eurasia Group, provide a glimpse into global trends, political dangers and international power dynamics. Some are counterintuitive facts. Others are small stats that tell a big story. This week, Ian looks at figures from Japan’s shrinking population to China’s first corporate bond default—and what they mean for everybody else.

***


Why Ukraine is holding its fire

Ukraine’s acting president warns that the Ukrainian military will have to be rebuilt “effectively from scratch.” The country has just 6,000 infantry ready to fight the 200,000 Russian troops gathered along Ukraine’s eastern borders. Ukraine’s prime minister says the country’s air force is outnumbered 100 to one.

( Business Insider , Reuters )

***

Japan’s new open door policy

The Japanese government has announced plans to address the country’s demographic problem by allowing 200,000 immigrants per year to settle in the country. Japan’s population is now about 127 million, but if its birthrate remains at the current 1.41 children per woman, the population will fall to less than 43 million by 2110. Officials say that if the island nation can increase its fertility rate to 2.07 by 2030 and welcome 200,000 immigrants each year , the population will still be at 114 million in 2110.

( Chosun Ilbo )

***

Terror in Nigeria’s poorest regions

Boko Haram, a group of militant Islamists based in northeastern Nigeria, is thought to have killed at least 1,300 people in the past two months. Though Nigeria is still on track to replace South Africa as Africa’s largest economy, poverty in the country remains widespread, particularly in the predominantly Muslim northern provinces. In the north, an estimated 72 percent of citizens live in poverty. In the majority Christian south, the figure is just 27 percent.

Nigerian States Under Sharia Law GeoCurrents

( The Guardian )

***

China’s new laissez-faire attitude

When Chaori Solar, a Chinese solar-equipment maker, failed to make good on a $14.7 million interest payment due to its bondholders, China experienced its first-ever default of a corporate bond. Some will say this is an ominous sign of financial problems to come, but it’s more likely a signal that Beijing is finally accepting that the financial sector needs more market-imposed discipline (as opposed to government bailouts). China’s market in corporate bonds reached an estimated $12 trillion late last year.

( BBC )

***

The GOP’s generational divide

According to Pew Research, 61 percent of Republicans under 30 favor same-sex marriage. Just 27 percent of Republicans aged 50 and older agree with them.

( Pew Research , h/t Taegan Goddard)