Independents are against President Donald Trump's national emergency declaration by a nearly 2 to 1 ratio. | Mark Wilson/Getty Images National Emergency Poll: Majority still opposes Trump emergency declaration

On the eve of Congress’ unprecedented rebuke of President Donald Trump, a majority of voters continue to oppose his declaration of a national emergency at the southern border, according to a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.

The poll shows that Trump has failed to build support for his declaration in the face of congressional opposition; the results are essentially unchanged since he signed an order to reallocate military funds toward construction of a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Only 38 percent of voters support the declaration, the poll shows, down 1 percentage point from three weeks ago.


In the new poll, 52 percent of voters are opposed to the declaration, up 1 percentage point from last month .

The House has already voted to terminate Trump’s emergency declaration, and the Senate is expected to do the same on Thursday, with a handful of Republicans joining Democrats in opposition. But both chambers lack the votes to override what would likely be the first veto of Trump’s presidency, which the White House has said Trump will make if the measure clears the Senate.

Opinions of the emergency declaration largely fall along party lines: only 10 percent of Democratic voters support it, while 83 percent oppose it. The numbers are flipped for Republicans, with 80 percent supporting the declaration and only 13 percent opposing it. Independents are against the declaration by a nearly 2 to 1 ratio: 30 percent support it, and 57 percent oppose it.

Overall, 33 percent of voters said they would be more likely to vote for their senators or representatives if they supported Trump’s emergency declaration. But more, 45 percent, said they would be less likely to support legislators who backed the declaration. Just 11 percent said it wouldn’t make a difference.

The party splits are similar: 74 percent of Democratic voters would be less likely to vote for a lawmaker who supported the emergency declaration, while 70 percent of Republicans would be more likely to support that person. A plurality of independents, 46 percent, would be less likely to vote for a member of Congress who backed the declaration, while 23 percent would be more likely to vote for that person.

The partisan divides suggest this week‘s Senate vote could put the squeeze on Republican incumbents in battleground states — Sens. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina are expected to join Democrats in voting to disapprove of Trump’s declaration. Similarly, Sen. Doug Jones of Alabama, the most vulnerable Democrat running for another term next year, could find himself crosswise with his state’s Republican-leaning voters.

“Backing Trump’s national emergency declaration could be politically toxic for senators up for reelection bids in 2020,” said Tyler Sinclair, Morning Consult’s vice president.

Trump’s approval ratings in the poll are unchanged from last week: 41 percent of voters approve of the job he is doing, while 54 percent disapprove. Just 36 percent of poll respondents would vote to reelect Trump if the 2020 election were held today, while 55 percent would vote for someone else.

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll was conducted March 8-10, surveying 1,994 voters. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.

Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.

More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents — Toplines: https://politi.co/2F5MIxC | Crosstabs: https://politi.co/2F7ywEn