Jays From the Couch takes an in depth look into who were the most “clutch” performers for the Toronto Blue Jays from the past week.

Let’s face it. Sports are weird. Theoretically the best statistical performer over a certain period of time should give you the best opportunity to win. Take a small sample size however and everything will go absolutely bonkers on you. This wrong turn truly displays that not every opportunity is created equal. I mean, lets face it…. you could be one of the greatest statistical performers of the day, but if it’s all “garbage time” what does it matter (no seriously.. congrats on your third solo jack, but we’re up 14-0 sooooo……)?

As a result over time baseball has developed statistics to help us analyze who comes through in the clutch, and whose numbers are just fluff. As such, Jays From the Couch takes a deeper look into who came through when it mattered most this week. Who put up, and who shut up?

When it comes to advanced stats, WPA and LI are the most prominent stats to look at. So here is what the numbers say:

(Data courtesy of fangraphs)

Highest Leverage Performer

Batting

This week was not a great one for the Blue Jays bats when it came to adding win probability. Despite all 13 batters getting an opportunity at the dish, only 4 were able to muster up a positive WPA. Oddly enough, none of the “big 3” were included. At the end of the day Saturday, only Michael Saunders, Justin Smoak, Ezequiel Carrera and Troy Tulowitzki were in the WPA black. Your big winner for this week however is Saunders with a fantastic 0.347, despite for the most part having an average week as a whole.

Saunders only had 2 games where he put up a negative WPA this week, while 3 of the other 4 balanced him out to slightly above even. As a result, Saunders’ big number is the byproduct of the excellent Wednesday he had. Even though the Jays lost the game against the Giants, Saunders home run in the bottom of the 9th off of Sergio Casilla to tie the game up was worth a whopping 0.363 (Saunders finished the game with 0.343).

Pitching

Despite the poor performances from the bats, the Blue Jays pitchers were excellent this week when it came to performing when they were called upon. Of the 13 pitchers that took the mound this week (5 starters and 8 relievers) all but 5 worked to a positive WPA. The standouts this week among starters included R.A. Dickey and JA Happ, who both pitched absolute gems (on Friday and Tuesday respectively) that resulted in phenomenal WPA numbers. As far as relievers were concerned, Gavin Floyd led the pack despite having the third highest pLI on the team, behind only Drew Storen (ew…) and Roberto Osuna.

With a WPA of 0.136, Gavin finished in a solid third place. When you move past Floyd however, there is a big jump…. and then it comes to a very close competition between the other two candidates. The performance Happ put up though (0.497) just barely beat out Dickey’s beauty at 0.482. Happ’s line of 8.2 IP, 6 H, 0 ER and 5 SO was incredibly impressive to say the least, and with the game staying at 1-0 right until the the 7th inning, Happ also benefited from a higher LI than any other SP.

Lowest Leverage Performer

Batting

Unfortunately, the lowest performer for this week at the dish had quite a few more candidates. Russell Martin did however run away from everyone else with an abysmal -0.407. That was good enough for a full -0.136 worse than any other Blue Jays batter. Only 3 batters put up that number themselves through the entire week. Breaking it down further, there was no one really bad game for Martin.

Martin was just consistently in the red all week, not having one positive WPA game. Even when it came to Russell’s worst game on Wednesday, his bad WPA in that match up was still not dictated by one terrible event. Four consistently negative at bats resulted in his terrible number. Russell even received a negative WPA during his sacrifice RBI at bat in the 8th inning that resulted in a run by Josh Donaldson.

Pitching

Starting pitching continued to impress with only one starter putting up a negative WPA. Stroman was the responsible party here putting up a -0.23, good enough for the second worst WPA among pitchers for the week. As mentioned earlier Drew Storen was close behind at -0.223, followed distantly by Chad Girodo at -0.078. The worst WPA performance of the week however belongs to Ryan Tepera.

Tepera only had one appearance this week and it was good enough for a whopping -0.384. Tepera was unceremoniously welcomed back to the bigs in the bottom of the 13th against the Giants walking into an LI of 2.13 TO START an inning. Unfortunately then Tepera proceeded to go HBP, SAC, WP, BB, IBB, BB to lose the game.

Runners In Scoring Position

This week the Blue Jays unfortunately didn’t end up with runners in scoring position all too often. Of the 6 games they have played since last Sunday, the Jays only had a man at second or third a total of 38 times. It seems like a large number, however if you break it down further, on average the Jays only had a total of 6 runners every game that they had a duck on the pond at 2 or 3. This meas a 100% conversion rate of RISP would have lead to a 6 run score.

Of the 38 times the Jays had a man within striking distance, they combined for a total of 8 hits, resulting in a paltry 0.211 batting average. Just above the Mendoza line is not going to be good enough for a team with playoff aspirations. With the MLB average BA sitting at a 0.252 overall, as a whole, the team performed well below when they needed it most.

The 3 Stars

When it all comes down to it, no single stat is going to nail down just how well a player performed in the clutch. Between advanced stats and the good old fashioned RBI It’s always touch to determine who exactly was the most clutch player of the week. Here are Jays From the Couch big three.

*** Michael Saunders: He may have been your WPA leader for the week but his biggest probability was in a losing effort.

** JA Happ: The 3 stars won’t always include the top WPA performer, but Happ was a top performer in any aspect, old school or advanced.

* Troy Tulowitzki: With Troy’s second best 0.291 WPA on the team, he also cashed in seven runners over the span of the week. As Doyle said, he is comin’ back!

Despite a poor performance from the bats, the Blue Jays pitching was able to support them to a solid week in May. Here’s hoping the arms can keep it up this week in high leverage situations, and the bats can catch up.

*Featured Image Credit: Freaktography UNDER CC BY-SA 2.0

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