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This year’s federal election has several possible results and each of them has long odds. But one of the unlikely scenarios must happen.

Canadian elections are often competitions between implausible outcomes, but this year’s has some particularly unpredictable dynamics. Yet even though there are good reasons for each party to lose, one of them must win. When improbable scenarios meet, on election night one of them becomes not only possible but actual.

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In the first unlikely scenario, Tom Mulcair will be prime minister by next Christmas. To lead the first NDP government in Canadian history, Mulcair will have to convince Canadians that it’s time for a change, but not to the party currently leading the opinion polls. In other words, Canadians will have to believe Stephen Harper is wrong for the country but right about Justin Trudeau.

It’s the most implausible of the three possible outcomes and neither history nor recent events are on Mulcair’s side. Things may change over the months ahead, and even during the campaign itself, but despite Mulcair’s strong performance in the House of Commons in 2014, the next election already feels to many Canadians like a choice between Harper and Trudeau.