The “Risk Factor” was something I threw in my positional rankings, and we would now like to take it a step further. In Fantasy Football your top priority in the draft is to avoid risk. Unfortunately, it seems as though certain big name players carry much more risk than others and leave fantasy owners wondering what they should be doing. George Kittle had a career year last season, putting his hype at an all-time high.

Risk Factor 5/10

Kittle’s ADP is currently at 29, which is quite high for a Tight End. His risk comes from where Kittle is being drafted. His ADP suggests that he will pick up right where he left off in 2018. Last season Kittle had 1,377 yards, the most ever by a Tight End. While that is telling of Kittle’s talent, there is built-in regression coming this season.

The 49ers were ravaged by injuries last season, which left Kittle as the last man standing in the receiving game. Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin only played five games each in 2018. Pettis is a breakout candidate for the 2019 season. If Dante can stay healthy, he will take a fair share of targets away from Kittle. Goodwin is another player who has an impact when on the field. He too will get his number called multiple times a game.

Kittle will get his share of the workload, as he proved to be one of the best threats in the passing game in 2018. However, he should put up more reasonable numbers from the Tight End position with better weapons around him. I am not doubting Kittle’s talent and athleticism or that fact that he is a big part of the 49ers offense. It is just near impossible to do what he did in 2018, even if he increases his touchdown numbers. Kittle will still be a top Tight End — he just will do so with 200 fantasy points instead of 258.

Where do you draft George Kittle?

As I previously mentioned, Kittle is going in the middle of the second round. I am firmly against drafting the TE3 in the second round. The best way to built a talented roster would be to pass on Kittle in the second and hope he somehow falls to the fourth round. Since that is not a realistic outcome, plan on drafting a top-tier RB or WR in the top rounds and wait on players like Evan Engram and Vance McDonald, who have a chance to outplay their draft position. Kittle is an elite athlete that is fun to watch, but his ADP is just too high in 2019.

If you would like to see more of the Risk Factor Series, click the links below:

Risk Factor: RB Todd Gurley

Risk Factor: RB Melvin Gordon

Risk Factor: RB Ezekiel Elliott

Risk Factor: WR A.J. Green

Risk Factor: RB Nick Chubb