Theresa May’s crunch weekend

The UK prime minister must decide which issues she wants to push into the second phase of Brexit talks.

Theresa May visits Iraq earlier this week | Leon Neal/Getty Images

LONDON — It’s decision time for Theresa May.

Away from Downing Street for the weekend — first at home in Berkshire and later in the quiet of her official country residence at Chequers — the U.K. prime minister must decide how far she is willing to go to guarantee progress in Brexit talks.

In front of her, according to British officials, are “a handful” of key decisions on the U.K.’s Brexit offer which must be made before she travels to Brussels on Monday for lunch with Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and the EU’s Brexit lead Michel Barnier.

Eighteen months after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union and after more than eight months of talks, Britain’s prime minister, weakened by a disastrous election result and battered by intense political storms within her own party, can ill-afford to end the year without completing phase one of Brexit negotiations. To do that she must convince leaders of the remaining 27 EU countries there has been “sufficient progress” on three key issues.

After a week of intense diplomacy, the two sides are within touching distance of a deal, according to U.K. officials who spoke to POLITICO on condition of anonymity.

“We are pretty close to agreeing enough to agree sufficient progress for Monday” — Anonymous British official

One European diplomat put the chances of progress at 60/40 — odds backed as “about right” by a leading U.K. Cabinet minister on Friday. In Brussels, U.K. aides now believe a deal is “looking firm.”

However, to get the agreement over the line, the prime minister must now make a series of contentious decisions on the so-called Brexit bill, citizens’ rights and Northern Ireland which U.K. negotiators are not empowered to make, according to one British official based in Brussels.

“We are pretty close to agreeing enough to agree sufficient progress for Monday,” the official said. “The decisions come back to the prime minister. She can’t throw everything into phase two, she has to make some decisions now, but not everything will be resolved now.”

Among the EU27 too, officials are nervous their leaders will not muster the political capacity needed to push a deal through.

Long week, longer weekend

Olly Robbins, the prime minister’s chief Brexit negotiator, returned to London from Brussels Friday with a number of issues still unresolved. He will present May with his assessment of how many of these need to be tied up to satisfy EU leaders, the official familiar with the talks said.

A Downing Street aide confirmed Robbins had returned to London and was in regular contact with the PM.

How far May is politically able to act on Robbins’ recommendations is now seen by U.K. and EU diplomats as the key to unlocking a deal.

“It’s his steer and their decision that will influence where we will get to on Monday,” one U.K. official said. “It’s his recommendation to the PM about what is acceptable.”

The U.K. government is hoping for a joint U.K.-EU paper setting out what has been agreed on the three issues which the EU has insisted must be largely resolved before the negotiations can move on to trade talks.

In Dublin Friday, the European Council President Donald Tusk also warned that Monday was a hard deadline for Britain to present an updated offer in order to give EU leaders time to decide whether their test of “sufficient progress” had been met in order to agree to move talks on to the U.K.’s future relationship with the bloc at when EU leaders meet at a summit on December 14 and 15.

“I asked Prime Minister May to put a final offer on the table by 4th of December so that we can assess whether sufficient progress can be made at the upcoming European Council,” Tusk said.

Adding further pressure, Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said “the next two days will be crucial.”

Privately, EU diplomats are concerned the domestic political situation in the U.K. could scupper the chances of progress by stopping May from being able to make the necessary compromises to get a deal.

One EU27 negotiator familiar with the state of the talks said he was “hopeful” of a deal but warned he did not know if the officials working on behalf of the U.K. government had the political cover they needed in Westminster and Belfast. “We’re making progress but you just can’t tell if they have the authority for what they’re saying. We’ll have to wait and see.”

Sticking points

Back in Whitehall, the mood is optimistic.

The prime minister chaired an extended meeting of the cabinet on Tuesday in which the U.K.’s initial offer to trigger “sufficient progress” was discussed extensively, according to a senior U.K. government official in London speaking on condition of anonymity.

Of the three issues on which progress must be made, Northern Ireland has emerged as the most tricky, with the DUP warning against any agreement which separates the nation from the British mainland. Dublin has made regulatory divergence on the island of Ireland a hard red line because it would necessarily impose border checks between north and south so that goods couldn’t pass across the border if they weren’t legal on the other side.

“On the money, we’ve agreed to contribute to all of these other pots that they’re asking for” — Anonymous U.K. official

“The whole issue is around regulatory divergence,” one U.K. official in Brussels said. “But it’s how we solve the wording.”

Even while acknowledging the outstanding issues, the official was confident. “It’s looking firm at the moment. It’s looking like Monday will happen.”

On citizens’ rights, a number of issues remain unresolved, including the export of benefits after Brexit, the recognition of qualifications — “particularly for lawyers” — and the rights of EU citizens to bring their families to the U.K.

A deal allowing EU citizens in the U.K. to refer cases to the European Court of Justice after Brexit has not yet been finalized.

Despite being the sticking point for months, the issue of Britain’s financial settlement with the EU is now seen in Whitehall as the least troublesome issue of the three.

“On the money, we’ve agreed to contribute to all of these other pots that they’re asking for. The question is the size of our contribution,” a U.K. official said.

Tags: