I’m writing this on the train, on the way back to my friend’s place in North Hollywood. I’m exhausted and my voice is sore from screaming - it’s been an amazing first five days of games. The games have been crazy, the crowd loud, the Rioters friendly and the pros are as much in awe as the rest of us. Riot has hit a home run with the group stages, I can only imagine what the Galen Center and the Staples Center will be like…but we’re not quite there yet.

So far, 30 of the 40 group stage games have been played, 6 per team. Later today, Saturday, a marathon of 10 games will decide the final standings in Groups A and B, but as of tonight, the standings are starting to solidify, particularly in Group A. I’m going to break down what’s happened so far with each of the top teams, and how they look going into the bracket stage. Let’s start with Group A.

Group A Standings:

OMG - 6-0 (Clinched Quarterfinal Birth) SK Telecom T1 - 5-1 (Clinched Quarterfinal Birth) Team SoloMid - 2-4 Lemondogs - 2-4 GamingGear.EU - 0-6

OMG (6-0) -

Omg has looked nigh unstoppable in the group stage, thanks in large part to their jungler, LoveLin. When people talk about OMG’s early aggression, they’re talking about LoveLin. When analysts talk about the danger of the Chinese snowball, low-clear, high-gank jungle picks, nonstop ganking…they’re talking about LoveLin. This guy is just ridiculous, making things happen by counterjungling or winning lanes with CONSTANT pressure, ensuring every kill is within proximity of an objective. If you want to see LoveLin in action, look no further than the second meeting between TSM and OMG, LoveLin dusts off mobility boots Volibear and directly contributes to 100% of the advantages OMG gains over TSM. Simply put: LoveLin is the best jungler in the group stages.

Of course, OMG isn’t just LoveLin. Cool showed off his diverse champion pool, especially with his pocket Syndra. San has played as if he stole Imp’s mojo before the tournament. Gogoing has performed solidly after a couple rough games this LPL season, and OMG has the advantage of having two veteran supports on the roster, bigpomelo and comA. Being able to switch them out between best-of-threes to make use of their varied champion pools will come in handy - it’s a strategy you will see far more of in Season 4 in the regions that can properly keep more than five top-tier players per roster.

What more, OMG has proved they aren’t just an early-game team. We assume LoveLin’s aggression and their snowball style somehow means their mid and late game are weak…Not true. Against Lemondogs earlier this week, OMG proved it can play a slower, more deliberate game, with LoveLin playing Meteos-style: gank when guaranteed, otherwise farm. OMG loves to teamfight, it shouldn’t come as a shock that they’re good at teamfighting come late game. What more, their vision control is on par with Korean teams, LoveLin used to be a support and it shows. This group stage has been about pink wards, a roster with 3 support mains plays the fog-of-war game as well as anyone.

Looking forward to their potential Quarterfinal match-ups, OMG has a good shot of making it through to the Semifinals. Najin Black Sword might be their toughest match-up, NBS won’t make the mistake of underestimating their opponents like their Korean brethren did in the group stages, they’re familiar with the early pressure OMG likes, and they know the ward game well. Those selling NBS short because of their early summer slump will be unpleasantly surprised.

Cloud 9 is an exciting prospect because of the Meteos vs. LoveLin match-up, while the Alex Penn/LemonNation scouting team rivals that of any Korean team. But Cloud 9 has a propensity for weak early games…as a NA fan, I must say I’m nervous about the idea of C9 drawing OMG.

Royal Club is very familiar with OMG having played with them in LPL, OMG might be the only team in Worlds to truly appreciate just how good Royal Club is. This match-up would settle the question I’ve heard several times, “Did OMG throw the LPL final to intentionally pass through the group stages to avoid stronger teams?” My gut says they didn’t, a Royal Club match would give us the answer.

Lastly, the Gamania Bears seem like a good team, but they would not have made it out of the group stages if it weren’t for their SEA bye - OMG would shut them out.

It’s hard to predict the OMG vs SKT T1 game now that both teams have advanced already. A loss would put them at 7-1 overall, meaning my prediction of 6-2 wasn’t too far off, we’ll see if I’m right.

SK Telecom T1 (5-1) -

SKT is now the second team out of two in Group A to advance to Quarters. They had one loss to OMG but have otherwise performed well *enough*, their picks/bans strategies are always tough to prepare for, Faker has lived up to the hype, Impact played an impressive Singed and Pooh’s vision control mid-late game is just astounding. But SKT T1 hasn’t been without faults, their bot lane has fallen behind early, especially to TSM - there are cracks in the shell. Unlike Ozone, I believe SKT when they say they’ve checked their egos, and that’s a good thing…but a couple less mistakes from the likes of TSM would’ve found SKT still fighting for the second spot to quarters, and they know it. I’m interested to see how they play OMG tomorrow - it’ll be a big momentum boost to ruin OMG’s streak immediately before Quarterfinals begin.

Reginald was right, gods do bleed - SKT T1 will have to step up their game against Quarters opponents like Royal Club, Cloud 9 and Najin Black Sword. I can see NBS’s extensive preparation paying off in the match between OGN Winter Champs and OGN Summer Champs, the match will inevitably feature plenty of flashy plays and “gentleman’s duels”, like we’ve come to expect from Korean play. I won’t bet against Faker, but NBS will be looking to prove the circuit point system did their country justice, especially with Ozone playing the way they have.

Royal Club is another exciting potential match-up, having struggled against OMG and the Chinese meta before, SKT T1 will have to earn every win against Royal Club, a team I’d argue is just as strong as OMG…at least stronger than Ozone.

SKT T1 versus Cloud 9 will be an ultimate chess game of picks and bans. I have no idea who I’d call for that match, so we’ll just ponder the prospect for now.

I know I’m probably selling the Gamania Bears short, but Faker is god, sorry, Bears, nothing personal, if SKT T1 draws them it’s an easy trip to the Semifinals.

Group B Standings -

Fnatic (5-1) Gambit (4-2) Vulcun (3-3) Samsung Ozone (3-3) Mineski (0-6)

Brief Bracketology -

This group is a tad closer, technically, any team 1-4 can still lock up a top two spot, though tiebreakers would be the deciding factor. Let’s take a second to walk through the possibilities:

Match One - Gambit vs. Fnatic: If Gambit pulls it out, they’re guaranteed at least a tiebreaker. If Fnatic wins, they clinch a quarterfinals birth. Gambit will then need to win match 4 to force a tiebreaker with the winner of…

Match Two - Vulcun vs. Ozone - The loser is eliminated from contention. The winner must win their next match to force a tiebreaker.

Match Three - Fnatic vs. Mineski - if Fnatic lost earlier, a win here will lock them in for the quarterfinals. Another loss means a possible 3-way tie.

Match Four - Gambit vs. Vulcun - If Gambit lost earlier, they must win this to ensure a tiebreaker with Vulcun or Ozone. If Vulcun does take both of their games, they will be the tiebreaker opponent.

Match Five - Ozone vs. Mineski - If Gambit has won both of their games, there’s nothing Ozone can do. If Gambit has lost one and Ozone wins both, they’ll be Gambit’s tiebreaker opponent.

Fnatic (5-1) -

The Season One Champs have been on fire. Cyanide and Yellowstar are the two most improved players at this tournament, Cyanide is right behind LoveLin in terms of impact, Yellowstar’s Leona has been on point. Apart from their Yorick pick in their only loss, it seems like Fnatic just can’t lose picks and bans. Makes sense - Soaz has a seemingly-unlimited pool, xPeke’s is well known for being ridiculously vast. Don’t even get me started on how good Puszu has been, the tattooed marksman has earned his right to stay on the team time and time again with amazing Corki/Varus play. Right now, it doesn’t seem like Fnatic can lose a game - their movement around the map has time and again been proven to be the BEST in the group stages, maybe the world. Veteran teams that KNOW they run teleport STILL get completely caught off guard, it’s incredible.

I’m almost at a loss for words about Fnatic right now, because of how good they’re playing in every single role. And the team compositions, ughhhhhhhhhhh. I’m an NA fan and still, I ask you, IF YOU LIKE LEAGUE HOW CAN YOU NOT LOVE THIS TEAM.

Example: They crushed Ozone with only two bans…I’d even go so far as to say they mindgamed Ozone into leaving Zed open, and even got Puszu Corki because Ozone doesn’t play it. Way to make the two bans work in your favor, Fnatic. Soaz takes Zed top, xPeke gets his Kassadin, Cyanide is STILL BEING GIVEN AATROX (WHYYYY). Sorry Ozone, but this was over in champion select, sure enough, the game was 25-8 and Ozone never got a single tower.

Fnatic will move on to the quarterfinals today, even if they lose both games somehow, I’m sure they’ll win the tiebreaker. I’d put money on this.

Looking forward, Fnatic is such an unknown, it’s hard to predict how they’ll fare against Royal Club/C9/Najin Black Sword/Gamania Bears. I’ve already made it clear how I feel about the Bears, but right now I think Fnatic has the capacity to mindgame C9 more than any team in the group stages…I think getting into their heads is the key to beating the American powerhouse and NO team has succeeded in doing it yet. C9 wins in preparation - Fnatic can’t be prepared for. Royal Club will be a real challenge for Fnatic, we haven’t yet seen them play against the Chinese meta, so I’m hesitant to make a prediction. Najin Black Sword will put up far more of a fight than Ozone did this group stage, I think Cyanide should get his Aatrox banned, and Najin will at least need to counter Puszu and Yellowstar, the only semi-predictable players on Fnatic. Arguably, I really think banning Soaz and Xpeke does nothing anymore - they’ll play anything, anything, anything.

Gambit (4-2) -

This is the shakiest team that will most likely make it out of the group stages. Dyrus wasn’t wrong, Group A was a gauntlet, Group B was a brawl - Gambit knows how to brawl, but their last few games have made me INSISTENT that something is going on off-screen. Ever since Alex ran off stage mid-match the other day, something has changed, they don’t look like the dominant team from earlier in the week. Today, the Russian titans need to STEP IT UP, and they have a tough match to start the day - Fnatic. If they can’t make it work against their rivals, they’ll have to beat Vulcun later in the day to force a tiebreaker.

Darien and Diamond have been playing well in the group stage, but Alex hasn’t been carrying these last couple games. I’m not a huge fan of the Twisted Fate pick, I doubt he’ll pick it today. I’m not sold on bot lane’s performance this week, it’s time for Genja to show his prowess as an ADC with elite positioning, Voidle needs to harness his inner Edward.

I can’t possibly bet against Fnatic the way they’ve been playing, and I’m even reluctant to bet against Vulcun when their backs are against the wall, I won’t be surprised at all if today ends in a tiebreaker. That being said, Gambit has NEVER dropped out early in a live tournament - I think their experience and sheer willpower will grind out a tiebreaker victory against Vulcun or Ozone.

If the Russians do make it to the Quarterfinals, they’ll need to shape up fast against the likes of Royal Club/C9/Najin Black Sword - right now those teams see Gambit as the easiest team likely to make it out of the group stage.

Vulcun & Ozone (3-3) -

Unfortunately for Vulcun, Ozone plays the Americans and Mineski today. Vulcun MUST beat Ozone, then carry that momentum forward to their game against Gambit. At least the NA boys still control their own fate, but the best they can hope for is a tiebreaker against Gambit immediately after their win against them. Hitting Gambit twice in a row and winning both games is a devastatingly difficult task, but Vulcun has proved us all wrong countless times in the LCS. They show signs of brilliance - Sycho Sid is still totally underappreciated, as is Bloodwater, Xmithie and Zuna show signs of brilliance. ManCloud hasn’t been the European-style Mid Carry we’re used to seeing, this is his day to prove his salt against Dade and Alex. If ManCloud and the boys get their patented double-global composition, especially with the ashe+zyra cherry on top, I think they can force a tiebreaker. BUT THEY NEED TO CONTROL THEIR AGGRESSION.

Ozone is lucky they have an “easy” schedule today, but to be frank, they don’t deserve to make it into quarterfinals. They have disrespected every team they’ve played against, they have disrespected their own big brother, Homme. Dade is far more of a mythical Regi-esque tilt machine than Regi could ever be (sorry your champions got nerfed but deal with it). Imp and Mata have made uncharacteristically bad calls in laning phase, and Mata’s vision control has NOT been anything close to Madlife’s lately, the comparison is starting to fade, in my eyes.

Oh Ozone, why did you not bring Homme back!?!? What is Looper giving them on Zac/Shen that Homme can’t, not to mention Homme is CLEARLY the heart and soul of this team. Watching him take their jackets off and massaging their shoulders before the game just to walk off stage, his head hung low…god, that was heartwrenching - he’s your big brother, he got you here, where is the faith? I’m a big Ozone fan but they’re the only team I’ve lost respect for in this tournament.

Of these two teams, I honestly think Vulcun deserves the chance, but we’ll find out in the Vulcun vs. Ozone match whether or not they can earn it.

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