Bitcoin (BTC) has a maximum 15% chance of falling below $3,800 if current price levels continue, says trader Tone Vays as BTC nears $7,000.

In a YouTube update on March 24, an increasingly bullish Vays updated his outlook for BTC/USD. He argued that at around $6,750, the pair was sitting at resistance.

Cryptocurrency market daily overview. Source: Coin360

Vays: Don’t wait for the dip

Break above $6,800 and Bitcoin would all but eliminate the likelihood of dipping to new lows under $3,800 — only a 15% chance would remain.

“Going above $6,800 would maybe give me 85% confidence we’re not going to go below this — and we’re almost there, we’ve almost broken it; we’re sitting at resistance,” he said.

“Right now, I believe there’s a 20-25% chance we’re going to go below $3,800.”

At press time, BTC/USD was gaining momentum towards $7,000, passing the $6,800 threshold to hit $6,920.

As Cointelegraph reported, Vays had previously sounded the alarm about a potential Bitcoin collapse to as low as $2,000 before May’s block reward halving.

Now, however, he told traders that it was foolish to avoid entering the market in the hope of catching the next dip. He continued:

“That still means that you can’t wait; you can’t wait for another pullback to $3,500 — you should be in Bitcoin by now.”

Fed’s “unlimited money” facilitates $100K BTC price

Vays was speaking as United States lawmakers agreed on a giant stimulus package to bail out consumers and businesses over coronavirus. The package, worth an estimated $6 trillion, followed the Federal Reserve embarking “unlimited” money printing.

For multiple commentators, including Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, fiscal trends suggest that it would be even easier for Bitcoin to hit a $2 trillion market cap.

Dan Held, director of business development at fellow exchange Kraken, added on Twitter: