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It’s not the first time the Conservatives have flourished in the 416: Brian Mulroney’s team won several seats in 1988, both in the core and the inner suburbs. But, the hard-fought victories this week represent Stephen Harper’s first breakthrough in Toronto, notably on the heels of Mayor Ford’s convincing win last October. Political watchers expect a Toronto MP to be named to Cabinet, as a result.

The Mayor took an unusually active role in the dying days of the federal campaign, endorsing Mr. Harper last week and recording an automated message that urged households in four ridings to vote Conservative. Three — Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, and Don Valley West — went to the Tories. Ironically, Etobicoke North, which Doug Ford represents municipally, remained Liberal.

In fact, most of the ridings that turned Blue were in the outer ring of the city, and had largely supported Mayor Ford in the municipal election.

Still, it’s difficult to pin down what effect so-called “Ford Nation” had on federal fortunes. Politics professor Nelson Wiseman, at the University of Toronto, believes none.

“People vote on the issues and the personalities and the configuration of forces that face them in that particular arena. I did not hear the garbage strike discussed in the federal election, or the gravy train,” said Mr. Wiseman.

Doug Ford also played down Ford Nation’s might, describing the Conservative wins as part of a “huge swing” rippling across the country. “It sends a clear message to the other parties that Toronto is in play for any Conservative party,” said Councillor Ford.