Nowadays, nothing looks good for the Republicans. Demographic and generational change is inexorably narrowing the GOP’s traditional path to victory, at a time when the party hasn’t shown any ability to broaden its appeal. The Republicans can’t take advantage of opportunities, either. Congressional Republicans have, somehow, managed to upstage an unpopular president presiding over mediocre economic growth and website “glitches.” Later today, Terry McAuliffe will likely be elected governor of a state. The once vaunted Republican "rebrand" only endures as an elite fantasy, consigned to the blogs and columns of a handful of conservative thinkers who have far less influence over the conservative grassroots than conversations along the Acela-corridor.

And yet hope is not lost for Republicans. Congressional Republicans were never going to be the agents of the Republican “rebrand.” It was always about 2016: The one moment when Republicans could nominate a candidate with a new message, and a big enough platform to change, suppress, or even Sister Souljah the party’s most extreme voices. And on that front, the last few months have gone deceptively well for Republicans. Ted Cruz unintentionally tried to disqualify himself in a manner that I would have only guessed was possible for a candidate intentionally trying to disqualify themself. Marco Rubio, who entered the year as the candidate most likely to lull Republicans into walking the plank, hasn’t done himself any favors, either. With rivals faltering, Chris Christie momentarily stands alone. Tonight, he will win reelection by such a wide margin that even the party’s most conservative forces will be tempted to give him another look. But it's highly unclear whether he can win the nomination, or whether anyone can repeat his success.

Chris Christie is cruising to reelection in a deep blue state. The polls differ on the margin, but Christie holds a staggering 23 point lead in the new and improved HuffPost Pollster Model. If Christie approaches that margin, it will be the best showing by a Republican in the Garden State since 1985. And he’s done it without compromising on the core elements of the Republican platform. Despite his reputation for moderation, Christie checks the crucial boxes of the religious and business wings of the Republican Party. He’s pro-life and he’s against gay marriage. He has solid credentials opposing taxes and attacking unions, which will eventually compliment a reformist, conservative domestic policy agenda.

To be fair, the massive net-41 point gap between Romney and Christie’s performance isn’t simply the result of flipping on a few wedge issues. Christie isn't a federal candidate; there's a long history of Republican governors in blue states. Christie’s also an incumbent who was elected in favorable conditions, who’s now running against a challenger—Barbara Buono—whose name I occasionally forget. It's an open question whether Christie from four years ago could win an open seat in New Jersey today. And it would be malpractice to forget Hurricane Sandy, the real turning point in the race. Before the storm, Christie’s approval ratings were in the low-to-mid fifties—low enough that he was potentially vulnerable in a very blue state. At the very least, he wasn’t on track to win by 23 points. So Christie isn’t a blueprint for perpetual Republican dominance: It would be extremely misguided to assume that conservative Republicans can simply jettison guns and immigration and routinely win blue states.

But that doesn’t justify discounting Christie, either. After all, Republicans don’t need to win New Jersey to win the presidency. They mainly need to hold down Democratic margins in areas that aren’t too different from New Jersey, like the well-educated and diverse suburbs around Philadelphia, Washington, Columbus, and Denver. The sheer margin by which Christie is surpassing what’s necessary is consistent with the possibility that even modest changes would be enough for a sufficient number of moderate voters to reconsider a Republican candidate.