Germany have crashed out of the World Cup, despite being considered one of the clear favourites to lift the trophy in Russia.

A 2-0 defeat to South Korea cemented the defending champion's demise, something that had been on the cards since their first game when they surprisingly lost to Mexico.

But should we be surprised at Germany's exit from the competition at such an early stage?

Germany have never under-performed more

We’ve come up with a way to judge every nation’s propensity to over- or under-perform based on their strength going into the tournament as described by their Elo* score.

For instance, the team with the lowest Elo score going into the tournament would be expected to be eliminated in the group stages. Thus if they managed to get through to the last 16 they would be classed as having over-performed relative to expectations.