"Ceterum autem censeo Carthaginem esse delendam." (Cato the Elder, 234-149 BC)

"EUNAVFOR MED - Operation SOPHIA" - Six Monthly Report: June, 22nd to December, 31st 2015

Today, 17 February 2016, WikiLeaks is releasing the classified report about the first six month of Operation SOPHIA, the EU military intervention against "refugee boats" in Libya and the Mediterranean.

The report, dated 29 January 2016, is written by the Operation Commander, Rear Admiral Enrico Credendino of the Italian Navy, for the European Union Military Committee and the Political and Security Committee of the EU. It gives refugee flow statistics and outlines the performed and planned operation phases (1, 2A, 2B and 3), the corresponding activities of the joint EU forces operating in the Mediterranean and the future strategies for the operation.

One of the main elements within the report is the planned, but still pending transition from Phase 2A (operating in High Seas) to Phase 2B (operating in Libyan Territorial Waters) due to the volatile government situation in Libya, where the building of a 'Government of National Accord' (GNA) is still under way.

The report presses the responsible EU bodies to help speed up the process of forming a 'reliable' government in Libya that in return is expected to 'invite' EU forces to operate within their Territorial Waters (Phase 2B) and later even give permission to extend the EU military operations onshore (phase 3).

In the last month there have been half a dozen high level meetings between EU and US officials (including with US Secretary of State John Kerry in Rome) as it is claimed by the US military that upto 5,000 Islamic State fighters have taken control over parts of the Libyan coast. Serious pressure has been placed on Libya's major power groupings to speed up the completion of the GNA and 'invite' Western forces. A GNA invititation was expected in January. Libyan press has reported that US, UK and French special forces have already arrived (there is no public admission by the Western countries). Within europe, Italy and the UK have been the driving forces behind the military intervention.

EU plan for military intervention against "refugee boats" in Libya and the Mediterranean

Today, WikiLeaks is releasing two classified EU documents, outlining the planned military intervention against boats travelling from Libya to Italy. The more significant of the two documents was written by the combined military defence chiefs of the EU member states. The plan was formally approved by representatives from all 28 countries on 18 May 2015.

Importantly, one of the documents acknowledges that "the political End State [of the military intervention] is not clearly defined" and recommends that the European Commission issue further guidance.

The documents lay out a military operation against cross-Mediterranean refugee transport networks and infrastructure. It details plans to conduct military operations to destroy boats used for transporting migrants and refugees in Libyan territory, thereby preventing them from reaching Europe. The EU member states' military chiefs advice is that there is a need to:

"[draw] on the full range of surveillance, intelligence and information capabilities available to MS [member states] and Partners, and supported by Brussels (inter alia EEAS [European External Action Service] Single Intelligence Analysis Capacity – SIAC)".

The plan also acknowledges the possibility of EU military use of force against groups such as ISIL "within the Libyan sovereign area":

"the threat to the force should be acknowledged, especially during activities such as boarding and when operating on land or in proximity to an unsecured coastline, or during interaction with non-seaworthy vessels. The potential presence of hostile forces, extremists or terrorists such as Da'esh [ISIL] should also be taken into consideration".

The documents mark a departure from previous EU military strategy in its overt targeting of civilian infrastructure in Libya. Numerous EU countries, including Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Romania, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom participated in NATO-led air strikes on Libya in 2011.

Human rights organisations have called on the EU not to put the lives of refugees and migrants at risk. The plan acknowledges that the EU risks negative publicity "should loss of life be attributed, correctly or incorrectly, to action or inaction by the EU force". To manage this reputational risk, the documents recommend "an EU information strategy from the outset" in order to "facilitate expectation management". They also acknowledge the "need to calibrate military activity" particularly within Libyan waters or ashore "in order to avoid destabilising the political process by causing collateral damage, disrupting legitimate economic activity or creating a perception of having chosen sides".

Boats transporting people from Libya are the main means for refugees fleeing conflict in Syria, Eritrea, Afghanistan and the Horn of Africa to reach safety in Europe. Since the destruction of the Libyan government in 2011 there has been a sharp increase in the numbers of refugees travelling to Europe from Libya. In 2014 more than 170,000 people are estimated to have crossed the Mediterranean from Libya. In 2014, this made up 60 per cent of the entire irregular migration into the EU.

If you have additional information on the EU plan, contact us.

Read the EU defence chiefs' approved plan here

Read the EU Politico-Military Group Advice here