“This is, in fact, who these people are — they are adults, with or without children, but not in a disability category for the most part,” said Sandra S. Hunt, principal at Pricewaterhouse Coopers, actuary for the Virginia Medicaid program since 1997.

As a result, state officials say the people who would be served under expansion more closely resemble the 700,000 Virginians who receive health care through Medicaid managed care organizations — insurers who are paid a set monthly rate per person to coordinate their care and manage costs.

“We’re talking about health insurance for those who would be considered the working poor,” Hazel told the Senate committee Tuesday.

Currently, about 70 percent of the nearly 1 million Medicaid recipients are pregnant women, children and low-income parents who account for just one-third of the $8 billion state program’s cost. The other 30 percent are elderly and disabled people, who now receive the most expensive and least-managed care in the system.

The new analysis for the Department of Medical Assistance Services lowers the expected cost of covering about 250,000 uninsured Virginians from $1.3 billion to $933 million from this year through 2022, compared with an analysis completed in late 2012.