Under Clinton's rules, Obama still wins

Barack Obama can fully accept Hillary Rodham Clinton’s terms on Michigan and Florida and still win a majority of pledged Democratic delegates on June 1, allowing him to lay claim to the nomination under the New York senator’s own rules.

A Politico analysis of the delegate numbers after Tuesday’s primaries in North Carolina and Indiana shows Obama can concede to Clinton’s position on Michigan and Florida and still claim victory — potentially forestalling the Democratic nightmare scenario of a floor fight at the Denver convention.


The Clinton campaign rejected the premise of Politico’s analysis, dismissing it as “artificial metrics” that “might make for interesting cocktail party conversation” but would give Obama no legitimate claim on the nomination.

But the numbers could add to Obama’s growing strategic advantage. Some background: The magic number of pledged delegates — excluding Florida and Michigan, which were stripped of their delegates for holding early, unsanctioned primaries — is 1,627 to have a definitive majority.

Obama will reach that threshold on May 20, after the Kentucky and Oregon primaries, and plans to declare victory.

The Democratic National Committee sets the clinching number at 2,025 pledged delegates and superdelegates, excluding Florida and Michigan. The rationale of the Obama camp is that hitting 1,627 means the candidate is a lock for the higher DNC number also, because superdelegates are unlikely to overturn voting results.

Many neutral Democratic strategists agree. “It’s not going to happen,” said Carter Eskew, the chief strategist for Al Gore’s 2000 campaign. “I don’t think anybody in Democratic circles, not aligned with either campaign, believes any different.”

Clinton’s campaign, however, has argued that Obama needs to clear yet another figure — 2,209 pledged delegates and superdelegates, a figure that includes the two rogue states. Clinton aides have said Obama won’t meet that target on May 20.

But using Clinton’s own numbers, there now seems a clear path for Obama to claim victory.

Clinton’s push for the full inclusion of Florida and Michigan brings the total pledged delegates to 3,566. That would mean the magic number for a majority would rise to 1,784.

A conservative assessment of Obama’s chances shows he would reach 1,785 pledged delegates on June 1, when polls close in the Puerto Rican primary.

This showing by Obama is possible even under extremely generous expectations for Clinton in the weeks ahead. Should she win about 70 percent of the delegates in West Virginia next week, a showing she has only accomplished in her husband’s native state of Arkansas, she would walk away with 19 additional delegates to Obama’s nine delegates.

A week later, should Clinton win 62 percent of the delegates in Kentucky, larger than her win in her home state of New York, she would walk away with 32 additional delegates while Obama would walk away with 19.

If Clinton managed a split in Oregon — a state Obama is heavily favored to win — he would still need only 35 percent of the delegates in Puerto Rico to clinch a lead in earned delegates.

The Clinton campaign insisted that even if Obama reaches 1,785, he’s not the nominee. “Declaring mission accomplished doesn’t make it so. The Democratic Party’s rules do not differentiate between the different types of delegates. Using artificial metrics . . . won’t change the fact that it takes 2,209 delegates to win the nomination," said deputy communications director Phil Singer.

An unassailable lead in pledged delegates, however, also would give Obama wide flexibility in negotiations over how to handle Michigan and Florida.

Obama’s campaign currently refuses to tie delegate allocation in Florida and Michigan to voting results in the two states because both candidates pledged not to campaign in either state. Obama was also not on the ballot in Michigan.

Clinton’s argues that to not recognize either contest would be equivalent to disenfranchising voters. Clinton’s aides also point out that Obama chose to remove himself from the Michigan ballot.

Howard Wolfson, one of Clinton’s two strategists, said Friday during a breakfast with reporters that the campaign would be willing to offer Obama all of the “uncommitted” votes from Michigan providing both states were seated in with delegate totals reflecting their votes.

Obama’s supporters had to vote “uncommitted” when they went to the polls in the Jan. 15 Michigan contest.

Both the Michigan and Florida Democratic parties have expressed a preference for Clinton’s stance — though the position has been opposed by Obama. The DNC and state parties have broadly indicated that they would accept any deal the two campaigns agreed on.

“If there was a proposal that both campaigns and the leadership of both states agreed upon, it's likely the [DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee] would accept that,” said a Democratic Party veteran who has not sided with either campaign.

Obama’s campaign has not agreed to Clinton’s terms, in part for fear it would shift the paradigm of the race and offer Clinton a way to narrow the gap in pledged delegates.

But the Politico analysis shows that if Obama gets all the “uncommitted” votes in Michigan, as Clinton’s team proposes, and Obama's rogue state delegates are bona fide supporters, he will still win a majority of pledged delegates.

This also means that any decision on the status of Florida and Michigan by the eagerly anticipated RBC session May 31 could largely be moot, in terms of shaping who wins the nomination.