By Sean McElwee, Jason Ganz, Ryan O’Donnell, and Colin McAulifffe

Our poll shows a field in immense flux, but with Senator Bernie Sanders in the lead with 22 percent of the vote and Senator Elizabeth Warren in second with 19 percent of the vote. Former Vice President Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg are tied in third with 18 percent of the vote. Senator Amy Klobuchar has 9 percent.

In a caucus, final delegate count is what really matters. After reallocation of delegates from candidates not clearing the viability threshold in each precinct, we estimate Sanders to have 28 percent of the vote, Warren to have 25 percent of the vote, Biden to have 24 percent of the vote and Buttigieg to have 22 percent of the vote.

Key Findings:

Iowa caucusgoers have favorable views of all the leading candidates, though Michael Bloomberg elicits strong negative views.

We find that no candidates definitively benefit from second alignment, with both Warren and Sanders gaining 6 points, Biden gaining 5 points and Buttigieg gaining 4 points.

Sanders has strong enthusiasm from the base. Among “extremely enthusiastic” Democrats, Sanders has 29 percent of the first choice, followed by Warren with 20 percent.

Sanders also has a six-point lead among among the 61 percent of caucusgoers who have their mind made up, though this is correlated with enthusiasm.

Democratic caucusgoers strongly support both Medicare for All (82 percent in support, 14 opposed) and a Green New Deal (92 percent in support, 6 percent opposed).

Data for Progress conducted a poll of 2,394 likely Iowa caucusgoers from 1/28/2020 through 2/2/2020. Likely caucusgoers were identified from the Iowa voter file and we weighted to a likely caucusgoer electorate. Our margin of error is +/- 1.6 percent.

We find a field in flux, with Bernie Sanders is leading by 3 points in the expected first round vote share with 22 percent of the vote. Senator Elizabeth Warren is in second with 19, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg with 18 percent of the vote.

Senator Sanders’ strong position is bolstered by massive support by caucusgoers under 45, with 46 percent supporting him. Senator Sanders also has the most support with the 61 percent of caucusgoers s who have already made up their mind at 26 percent, followed by Biden at 20 percent and Warren at 19 percent.

But the outcome is far from predetermined. Second choice voting preference helps determine where support will ultimately land after realignment. Among Sanders and Warren caucusgoers, there is a clear preference for the other with 40 of Sanders caucusgoers listing Warren as their second choice while 31 percent of Warren caucusgoers list Sanders as their second choice. Klobuchar supporters are notable, as she is likely to not reach viability in many precincts. Thirty-four percent of Klobuchar supporters favor Biden as their second choice and 28 percent choose Warren.