The Conservative Party is poised for a comfortable general election win with 359 seats in parliament, according to new polling research.

The YouGov data, which uses the responses of tens of thousands of people, suggests the Tories could win a 68-seat majority if the election were held tomorrow.

Labour is on track for 211 seats, it suggested, losing 44 constituencies to the Tories including those of departing deputy leader Tom Watson and veteran backbencher Dennis Skinner.

The losses are predicted to come largely in the north of England and the midlands and have been linked by researchers to how the constituencies voted in the 2016 EU referendum.

YouGov’s MRP polling methodology correctly predicted the hung parliament that resulted from 2017’s general election.

Pollsters asked some 100,000 people about their voting intentions. They then used poll data from the week prior to develop a computer model factoring in demographics, constituency, past behaviour and other metrics to estimate the probability a person with certain characteristics will vote for a given party.

General election: Constituency profiles Show all 28 1 /28 General election: Constituency profiles General election: Constituency profiles Dunbartonshire East Constituency profile: Dunbartonshire East. See story POLITICS Election. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Milton Keynes South Constituency profile: Milton Keynes South. See story POLITICS Election MiltonKeynes. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Great Grimsby Constituency profile: Great Grimsby. See story POLITICS Election Grimsby. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Southampton Itchen Constituency profile: Southampton Itchen. See story POLITICS Election Southampton. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Truro & Falmouth Constituency profile: Truro & Falmouth. See story POLITICS Election Truro. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Brecon & Radnorshire Constituency profile: Brecon & Radnorshire. See story POLITICS Election Brecon. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Dudley North Constituency profile: Dudley North. See story POLITICS Election Dudley. Infographic by PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Norwich North Constituency profile: Norwich North See story POLITICS Election Norwich. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Fife North East Constituency profile: Fife North East. See story POLITICS Election Fife. Infographic PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles St Ives Constituency profile: St Ives. See story POLITICS Election StIves. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Derbyshire North East Constituency profile: Derbyshire North East See story POLITICS Election Derbyshire. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Stirling Constituency profile: Stirling. See story POLITICS Election Stirling. Infographic by PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Sedgefield Constituency profile: Sedgefield. See story POLITICS Election Sedgefield. Infographic by PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles St Albans Constituency profile: St Albans. See story POLITICS Election StAlbans. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Blackpool South Constituency profile: Blackpool South. See story POLITICS Election Blackpool. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Cambridge Constituency profile: Cambridge. See story POLITICS Election Cambridge. Infographic by PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Finchley & Golders Green Constituency profile: Finchley & Golders Green. See story POLITICS Election Finchley. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Bedford Constituency profile: Bedford. See story POLITICS Election Bedford. Infographic by PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Wells Constituency profile: Wells. See story POLITICS Election Wells. Infographic by PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Lancaster and Fleetwood Constituency profile: Lancaster and Fleetwood. See story POLITICS Election Lancaster. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Harlow Costituency profile: Harlow. See story POLITICS Election Harlow. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Hartlepool Constituency profile: Hartlepool. See story POLITICS Election Hartlepool. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Telford Constituency profile: Telford. See story POLITICS Election Telford. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Stockton South Constituency profile: Stockton South. See story POLITICS Election Stockton. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Uxbridge & South Ruislip Constituency profile: Uxbridge & South Ruislip. See story POLITICS Election Uxbridge.Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Ashfield Constituency profile: Ashfield. See story POLITICS Election Ashfield. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles Moray Constituency profile: Moray. See story POLITICS Election Moray. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images General election: Constituency profiles South West Hertfordshire Constituency profile: South West Hertfordshire. See story POLITICS Election Tories Gauke. Infographic PA Graphics PA Graphics Press Association Images

The research found that Mr Johnson’s party was on course to pick up 42 more seats than during Theresa May’s disastrous 2017 campaign, potentially their best performance since 1987, YouGov said in a press release.

Labour appears set to lose even more seats to the SNP in Scotland, which YouGov expects to gain eight in total – two from the Conservatives, one from the Liberal Democrats and five from Jeremy Corbyn‘s party.

On the subject of the Lib Dems, leader Jo Swinson’s decision to drop her insistence that she could be the next prime minister appears to have been the right one. Her party is due to increase its seat count by just one on 12 December, from 12 to 13, because it is set to lose three it currently holds.

None of the MPs who have defected to the Lib Dems recently are currently set to win the seats they are standing in, YouGov said.

Chris Curtis, the company’s political research manager, said: “As expected, the key thing deciding the extent to which each of these seats is moving against Labour is how that seat voted in the European Union referendum.

“In the seats that voted most strongly to Leave in 2016 [60 per cent or more], the swing to the Conservatives is over 6 per cent.

“This is allowing the Tories to overturn quite substantial majorities in places like West Bromwich East, the seat held until recently by Tom Watson, and Don Valley, the seat currently held by Caroline Flint.