In the Democratic race, former Tallahassee congresswoman Graham clings to a 20-17 percent lead over former Miami Beach Mayor Phil Levine. | AP Photo Graham, Putnam barely lead, threatened by Levine and DeSantis in new poll

MIAMI — Gwen Graham and Adam Putnam are the weak and nominal establishment front-runners in their parties’ primary races for Florida governor, according to a new survey that shows both candidates facing insurgent challengers who are within a few points of a dead heat.

And there’s months to go and millions to be spent heading into the Aug. 28 primaries now that Gov. Rick Scott is leaving office due to term limits. About half of Democratic primary voters and 43 percent of Republican ones are undecided.


“Right now, the only things that are certain about Florida’s 2018 gubernatorial primaries are that the outcomes are far from certain. A lot of money is going to be poured into these two very competitive races and the voters are not fully tuned in,” said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, which conducted the survey of 500 likely Democratic voters and 500 likely Republican voters from Jan. 29 to Feb. 1.

In the Democratic race, former Tallahassee congresswoman Graham clings to a 20-17 percent lead over former Miami Beach Mayor Phil Levine, with Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum at 10 percent and Winter Park businessman Chris King at 4 percent.

For the Republicans, state Agriculture Commissioner Putnam leads Rep. Ron DeSantis 27-23 percent with Florida House Speaker Richard Corcoran trailing at a distant 7 percent. Corcoran has not announced his campaign but is expected to after the end of the March 9 legislative session.

Not only are the dynamics of the parties’ primaries similar, the front-runners both hail from connected families. Graham is the daughter of a former governor and senator, and Putnam is the scion of a longtime Florida farming family.

And their closest rivals share a similarity as well. DeSantis was a virtual unknown but has spent months doing multiple TV appearances on Fox. Levine, also little-known, has tapped into his personal fortune and his network of donors to embark on a $2.3 million ad blitz that has raised his profile with voters.

“In Levine’s case, it’s a media buy,” Coker said. “In DeSantis’ case, I suspect it’s free media from [President Donald] Trump’s endorsement of him to all of the hits on Fox, which is where your Republican voter base is at.”

Both front-runners appear better known than liked, according to the poll. It shows that 28 percent of Democrats have a favorable impression of Graham, 2 percent view her negatively, and 35 percent recognize her name but are neutral. For Levine, 17 percent see him positively, 3 percent view him negatively, and 37 percent recognize his name but are neutral.

So in total, Graham has “an 8-point name recognition margin over Levine, but just a 3-point lead,” Coker said in a polling memo. “Putnam, the only candidate to have run statewide, has a name recognition advantage of 7-points over DeSantis, but only a 4-point lead.”

The margin of error for the races is 4.5 percentage points.