WITH four weeks to go until America’s presidential election on November 8th Hillary Clinton has widened her lead over Donald Trump in the polls. That is happening both at a national level and in the battleground states that will decide the race. Democrats had spent a nervous September watching that lead whittle away after Mrs Clinton’s bout of pneumonia and her impolitic description of a chunk of Mr Trump’s supporters as “deplorables” (generating a cottage industry of Republican paraphernalia proudly brandishing the epithet).

But following those wobbles, Mrs Clinton is performing better at this stage of the race than Barack Obama was in 2012, though she is faring slightly worse compared with his first run in 2008. On October 8th Mrs Clinton had a lead of 4.6 percent over Mr Trump in the RealClearPolitics national average (the polls were taken before both the release of a tape featuring Mr Trump making obscene comments and the second debate). She has had a stronger start to October by that measure than Mr Obama four years ago, more than doubling her lead 12 days after her first debate with Mr Trump. By contrast, Mr Obama’s first debate with Mitt Romney in 2012 took place a week later than Mrs Clinton’s in 2016, but after a poor performance Mr Obama was still struggling in the polls 12 days later, with a lead of just 0.5 points.

In the battleground states she is better placed than Mr Obama was at this stage four years ago in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, holding her own in Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but faring worse in Iowa, Nevada and Ohio. She is also outperforming Mr Obama in Georgia and Arizona.

The polls will also dictate where the candidates go to woo voters. Mr Trump has touted his appeal in rustbelt Midwestern states, with their older and whiter populations, whereas Mrs Clinton is outperforming past Democratic nominees in younger, more diverse states in the South. The campaigns have been focusing their efforts accordingly. For example, since September 1st Team Trump has held almost twice as many events in Ohio as the Clinton campaign has. But polling over the past week or so has veered in Mrs Clinton’s direction in the state. The list of battleground states looks broadly similar to previous elections. Among them, the only one where Mrs Clinton has been consistently trailing Mr Trump is Iowa, which voted for Mr Obama in 2008 and 2012.

So in the final stretch of the campaign Mrs Clinton has sustained a modest lead, though one that is still not comfortable enough for many Democrats. They will take heart at an NBC/Wall Street Journal survey taken on October 8th and 9th giving her a 14-point head-to-head lead. If the polling keeps shifting her way she will soon be outperforming Mr Obama’s campaign in 2008. That said, October has a tendency to throw up a few more surprises.