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Loans in Alberta and the other Prairie provinces, as a percentage of overall Canadian loans extended by the big five banks, range from the mid-teens to the low twenties.

Brian Porter, chief executive of Bank of Nova Scotia, said he doesn’t expect any fallout to hit the banks’ books for at least a couple of quarters as the impact of lower oil prices makes its way through the system. In the consumer segments, draws on lines of credit and “delinquencies” in credit card payments would be among the first signs of trouble, he said, adding that problems in auto loans would follow.

But while Mr. Porter said he expects some “anxious moments” over the next six to 18 months between the banks and those directly involved in the oil and gas sector — and even some “fender benders” downstream in the service sector — he doesn’t anticipate widespread problems.

“We’re not panicking,” he said, noting that Scotia was able to absorb what some observers deemed over-exposure to the automotive industry during the financial crisis.

“I don’t want to go out on a limb and say we don’t have a problem… but where we sit today in terms of our oil exposure, we didn’t go down market,” Mr. Porter said. “We’ll adjust accordingly as we see fit through the cycle.”

Until recently, Royal Bank of Canada was presuming the oil price might sit at US$60 or US$65 per barrel for as long as two years. But Dave McKay, who took over as chief executive of RBC in August, said Canada’s largest bank is now testing to see how its oil portfolio would weather the price of crude at US$45 a barrel over a “prolonged” period of one to two years.