Well, it’s after 5PM, and that means another update on how the congressional race numbers have shifted. The big news today is that Katie Porter has now taken a slim 261 vote lead in the 45th congressional district. Before we look at those numbers though, let’s see what’s left to count.

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 441,011 Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 179,411 Total Estimated Left to Count: 261,600

It appears that more votes have been counted today (41K) than yesterday (28K), which is good news, considering we still aren’t even halfway through initial allotment of uncounted votes. My really bad guess at when all votes will be counted will probably be after Thanksgiving, but state laws dictate that counties must submit finalized vote totals by December 7th. My hope is that it finishes up by then, but if mass amounts of ballots are still being challenged, this could go down to the wire depending on whether the ROV gets a Thanksgiving break or not.

On to the race numbers:

**Analysis**

CA-39

Cisneros added a bunch of votes in LA county today and even net 128 votes in Orange County. As it stands right now, the overall vote count for the 39th congressional district stands at 50.19–49.81 with Kim leading by a slim 711 votes. Cisneros is extremely well positioned at this point, and in my estimation, simply needs to maintain his current OC margins, and LA will carry him to Washington. I would be unsurprised if Cisneros took the lead by the end of the week with so few votes separating both candidates. Lean D

CA-45

Porter has taken the lead here after a week of ballot counting by 261 votes. While her initial numbers right after election day weren’t terribly impressive (net gain of around 100 votes the first day), later updates have been quite different. It should also be noted that the Walters campaign has not ended up with a net gain in any of these counts, and going forward, I expect the gap between Porter and Walters to widen. Despite these expectations, there is still some uncertainty, and I’ll be keeping this race where I rated it yesterday, though I’d be interested to see if my concerns about Tustin’s turnout rate has been alleviated. Lean D

CA-48

Rouda’s lead has passed 10K votes, and at this point, the more interesting aspect of this race is to analyze the geographic distribution of how this district voted. Of interest is how strongly Rouda performed in Laguna Beach, a mostly white and wealthy community not too different from Newport Beach, though it’s historically been seen as an artist community, which may contribute to it’s leftish voting this election. This will be the last analysis of CA-48 in these posts. D Gain

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CA-39 (OC Portion Only) Cisneros percentages

La Habra: 54.47%

Buena Park: 54.25%

Fullerton: 52.05%

Brea: 45.67%

Placentia: 45.55%

Anaheim: 45.10%

East Placentia: 38.76%

Yorba Linda: 35.03%

CA-45 Porter Percentages

Irvine: 61.97%

Tustin: 56.20%

Laguna Woods: 53.35%

Silverado: 50.37%

Lake Forest: 47.45%

Laguna Hills: 47.42%

East Orange: 46.77%

Mission Viejo: 45.07%

RSM: 43.84%

Orange: 42.24%

Anaheim: 41.37%

East Tustin: 40.30%

Ortega: 37.74%

Villa Park: 29.49%

Trabuco: 29.48%

CA-48 Rouda Percentages

Diamond: 80.00%

Laguna Beach: 66.05%

Santa Ana: 60.76%

Costa Mesa: 59.01%

Aliso Viejo: 58.16%

Bay View: 57.41%

Midway City: 52.57%

Seal Beach: 52.28%

Garden Grove: 51.75%

Laguna Niguel: 51.69%

Huntington Beach: 50.05%

Fountain Valley: 49.02%

Westminister: 47.27%

Newport Beach: 45.40%

Emerald Bay: 37.33%

CA-49 Levin Percentages

Mission Viejo: 50.09%

Dana Point: 47.15%

Ortega: 46.73%

San Juan Capistrano: 45.36%

Ladera Ranch: 45.26%

San Clemente: 44.28