Don Draper is going to die.

At least, that's what Mad Men creator Matt Weiner wants us to think. I'm betting he kicks the bucket in 1969, but the real question is how. From the opening-credits free-fall to that time the elevator forgot to bring the elevator, Death's craggy finger has been pointing at Dick Whitman. Whether this has all been misdirection or blatant foreshadowing, the Don-doom message couldn't be more conspicuous (or Kubrickian) if little Bobby crayoned "Redrum" on Daddy's door.

I calculated these death chances under the assumption that Double-D is definitely going to die in 1969. After making a list of nine probable death causes based on Don's (mis)behavior, I used the CDC's 1969 death toll to add the total headcount of the nine probable deaths that year (1,528,029). I then divided each death cause's headcount (e.g., car crash: 55,791 deaths) by the total deaths to get a percentage likelihood of Don dying this way in 1969 (e.g., 55,791 / 1,528,029 = 3.65% chance of car crash death in 1969).

9. Elevator or Lack Thereof : .0013%

Very rarely do elevator cables snap, but stepping into empty shafts accounts for 49 percent of elevator deaths, according to a twelve-year study by the Center for Construction Research and Training. "About twenty" people die elevator deaths every year, but most are maintenance related — when a repairman snags his sleeve on a gear or fondles the wrong widget. Don's elevator mishap best serves as a warning: Watch where you're going, man, because it looks a whole lot like death ahead.

Statistically speaking, stairs are far more dangerous than elevators, anyway.

8. Venereal Disease : .036%

No thanks to romantic/psychotic VD commercials of 1969, syphilis was on the rise in the time of free-loving hippies, but AIDS doesn't sweep the nation until 1981. From his kids' elementary teacher to slap-happy dominatrices, Dirty Dick Whitman sleeps with every woman he crosses... so long as he doesn't respect her too much (congratulations, Joan and Peggy).

7. Drug Overdose : .12%

When he's not watching himself drown during hookah-hash hallucinations, Don dabbles in the occasional ass syringe full of speed. Sometimes he almost dies. Sometimes he just gets sleepy in weird places.

6. Plane Crash : .15%

My money is on this horse. There were only 2,229 plane crash fatalities in '69, but Don is a frequent flyer, and we've been inundated with plane innuendos every season. Pete's dad died in a plane crash. Don lied to Megan for no reason about watching a plane crash on TV. Neve Campbell flew in the next seat with her dead husband's ashes, etc. The evidence is all there.

5. Drowning : .4%

Friends don't let friends smoke drugs and swim. Roger won't always be around to save the day.

4. Murder : 1.01%

Don has a lot of enemies in the workforce, but true fury would come from the husbands and fiancés out there who'd end the man-whore if they found out where his wiener's been. Not Jimmy Barrett, though. That guy's a coward. Dr. Rosen — now that's a man who means business.

3. Suicide : 1.46%

He was doodling nooses in his free time even before moving into a hanged man's office. Don has something on his mind, just like the 22,364 Americans who offed themselves in 1969.

If poetic justice has any say, Don will explode himself again with his own lighter, and some dejected bumpkin will steal his identity, then be an asshole to everyone he meets.

2. Car Crash : 3.65%

Despite how frequently Don has driven under the influence in the past, he lives amid the traffic jams of Manhattan now. Hopefully, he's less likely to road-head down the path of no return.

1. Smoking and Drinking : 93.16% (Heart Disease + Cancer + Cerebrovascular Disease + Respiratory Disease + Liver Cirrhosis + Pancreatitis + Alcohol Poisoning)

Don is such an alky that he gets the shakes even after he's had one drink, and he smokes more than the smoldering corpse of... Don Draper. According to alcoholic.org, the final stage of alcoholism may include tremors, job loss, and hallucinations. Check, check, check. Heart disease has been the number-one killer of Americans since 1921. Let's not forget that Don once read Dante's Inferno when his watch died — his ticker stopped, he ran out of time. Nobody ever accused heart disease of being subtle. Cerebrovascular diseases use a smoker's weakened vessels and cholesterol to block the brain's blood flow, causing afflictions such as stroke or dementia. You know what raises cholesterol? Milk chocolate. After last season's nostalgic spiel to the Hershey executives, we know how much Don Draper loves a Hershey's bar. That dude loves the crap out of Hershey bars.

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