NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 24: Traders and financial professionals work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at the opening bell, April 24, 2019 in New York City. U.S. stocks started the trading day mixed, following Tuesday's closing record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Are you ready for the second half of the year? The bulls are. They already have a narrative to keep stocks up, and push them higher.

First, address trade and tariffs. The hope is that the Trump-Xi meeting this weekend will "reset" relations, the existing tariffs will remain in place while the trade talks continue, but that no new tariffs will be put on.

If that is the case, investor interest will immediately turn to earnings.

Here's the good news:

No earnings recession is expected this year (consecutive declines in earnings growth), nor is one projected for 2020. Buybacks continue at a strong pace and are providing support to earnings and stock prices, particularly in technology.

Here's the bad news: Earnings estimates are essentially "flattish" for 2019 compared with 2018. This puts stock investors in a difficult position because it's hard to justify equities at a record high when there is very little earnings growth expected.

Here's the current quarterly estimates for earnings growth in the :

S&P 500 earnings: 2019

Q1: up 1.6%

Q2 (est.): up 0.3%

Q3 (est.): up 0.9%

Q4 (est.): up 7.3%

Source: Refinitiv

Put it all together, and we are looking at 2019 earnings growth of roughly 2%, which is largely based on expectations of a fourth quarter rebound, so it's fair to call 2019 "flattish."

This leaves us with a "forward" earnings multiple of about 17. That's well above the historic average of 15 to 16.

"It's tough to justify a high multiple when the global economy is slowing down," UBS' Art Cashin said. "Flattish earnings may not be good enough."

Why are earnings flattish? The global slowdown and particularly tariff/trade wars have had an impact, particularly in the technology sector. Tech earnings have been trending down all year and are only expected to modestly recover in the fourth quarter:

S&P 500: Technology earnings 2019

Q1: down 1.1%

Q2 (est.): down 7.9%

Q3 (est.): down 6.3%

Q4 (est.): up 4.1%

Source: Refinitiv

Little wonder that bulls are counting on a successful outcome to the China trade talks to turn around earnings.