US Oil Consumption Falls Back To 2002 Level

For most of the post-WWII era US oil consumption went up year after year. One deviation from that came in the early 1980s. An even longer lasting and probably permanent deviation from that trend is developing. Americans have traveled back in a sort of time machine to 2002 levels of oil usage.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised downward U.S. April oil demand by 863,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 19.77 million bpd -- 3.9 percent below year-ago levels. The revision, which showed April demand was the lowest for the month since April 2002, came even before gasoline prices surged to new records in June.

But on a per capita basis the reduction in oil usage is even larger since the US population grows about 1% per year. So has US oil usage per capita gone down 10% since 2002? Can someone check me on this?

Back in 1959 the United States used about 6 million barrels of oil per day. The US had a population of about 150.5 million in 1950 versus about 304.4 million at the time of this writing. Okay, with 2 times more people we would use almost 12 million barrels a day if we used oil at the same rate as in 1950. But we use about 20 million barrels a day. So once prices go high enough to cut US demand by 8 million barrels a day we will have traveled back in time to 1950 in terms of oil usage.

A 1950 level of oil usage will be easier in the future than it was in 1950 because we have much more efficient cars and other higher efficiency equipment. Plus, we have nuclear power plants, wind turbines, and other sources of non-fossil fuels energy. As we hit each point of our future journey into our oil consumption past we will make other gains in technology for fossil fuel replacements. Now, I do not expect those advances to come fast enough to prevent a decline in total per capita energy usage. But those other energy sources will at least allow us to maintain an industrial society.

Update: In the comments Donkatsu explains how far off our peak per capita oil consumption we've already fallen:

The data tell the story, from 1998, oil use per capita in the US has risen steadily from 25.06 barrels per person to a recent peak of 25.9 bbl/capita in 2004. In 2005 per capita consumption fell by about 0.6%, falling further for the full years 2006 and 2007 to 97% of the 2004 peak. The 2008 levels, if maintained for the entire year, would put per capita oil consumption at about 91.6% of the 2004 peak.

If you find yourself driving less, driving a smaller car, flying less, and otherwise using less energy since 2004 it is not surprising.

Update II: Vehicle traffic is down on New York City bridges and tunnels.

In May, with gasoline at more than $4 a gallon, traffic at the Metropolitan Transportation Authoritys bridges and tunnels dropped 4.7 percent compared with the same month the previous year. Preliminary data for June shows a similar decrease in traffic, and officials say the change is largely because of higher prices at the pump.

But public transit ridership is up.

Weekday subway ridership was up 6.5 percent in April, compared with the same month a year ago. April ridership increased 5.5 percent on the Long Island Rail Road, 4.3 percent on the Metro-North Railroad and almost 9 percent on PATH trains between Manhattan and New Jersey. Use of the subways and rail lines also increased in May, compared with the previous year, but in most cases by smaller amounts. New Jersey Transit ridership, including bus, commuter rail and light rail, was up about 4.6 percent in April and May combined.

When gasoline hits $6 per gallon the trains and buses will be full.