U.S Rep. Steve King's re-election bid moved from 'safe' to 'likely' GOP by political handicapper

William Petroski | The Des Moines Register

Show Caption Hide Caption Steve King's history of winning elections Despite a history of controversial rhetoric, U.S. Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa, has easily won re-election to Congress.

U.S. Rep. Steve King's campaign for re-election in Iowa's 4th Congressional District has been moved from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" by Sabato's Crystal Ball, a nationally recognized political handicapper.

King, a Kiron resident serving his eighth term in Congress, is being challenged by J.D. Scholten of Sioux City, a former professional baseball player who has been barnstorming the district in a Winnebago campaign vehicle with his name on the sides.

The latest campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Election Commission — dated June 30 — show that Scholten had raised more money than King — $776,000 to $509,000 — and that the Democrat had more cash on hand — $254,000 to $117,000.

However, the 4th District, which covers 39 counties in northwest and north-central Iowa, has a big edge in voter registration for the GOP. Republicans represent about 40 percent of registered voters while Democrats represent about 25 percent. The rest are listed as either no party or other parties. That big edge in voters has allowed King to routinely fend off Democratic challengers in the past, including former Iowa first lady Christie Vilsack, whom he defeated by a margin of 53 to 45 percent in 2012.

More: Young-Axne race for Congress in Iowa rated as 'toss-up' by Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Cook Political Report — another respected political handicapper — still rates the King-Scholten race as "Solid Republican."

Sabato's Crystal Ball, which is based at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, made 17 ratings changes for U.S. House races this week — all of them in favor of Democrats. The handicapper also now lists Iowa's 3rd District race between U.S. Rep. David Young, R-Van Meter, and Democratic challenger Cindy Axne of West Des Moines, as a "Toss-up" from its previous rating of "Leans Republican."

"Democrats are now a little better than 50-50 to win the House. This is the first time this cycle we’ve gone beyond 50-50 odds on a House turnover," Sabato's Crystal Ball said in a special edition on Tuesday.