For some coaches in the NFL, it's hard to get caught up in holiday spirit.

The NFL regular season concludes just before the start of a new year, but speculation on head coach job security heats up right before Christmas. And so far, the only good news in 2012 is that no coach lost his job during the regular season.

By next Monday, though, another offseason of change will begin. It should start quickly.

"Black Monday" could start with the firings of Andy Reid of the Philadelphia Eagles, Romeo Crennel of the Kansas City Chiefs and Norv Turner of the San Diego Chargers. Cleveland Browns coach Pat Shurmur also could be included in that crazy Monday news cycle.

Lovie Smith probably needs to make the playoffs to keep his job with the Chicago Bears. For that to happen, the Bears must beat the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings must lose to the Green Bay Packers.

With six wins, Carolina Panthers coach Ron Rivera may have saved his job unless Panthers owner Jerry Richardson wants to pay $5 million per year, or more, to get Oregon coach Chip Kelly or a lot less to grab former Panthers assistant Mike McCoy, who is Denver's offensive coordinator. I think Rivera might get a reprieve.

Titans coach Mike Munchak might not have done enough to save his job as Tennessee is 5-10. After Sunday's 55-7 loss to the Green Bay Packers, Titans owner Bud Adams told the Tennessean that he likes Munchak, but he doesn't like what's happening to his team.

In Arizona, Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt will be evaluated for the poor state of the quarterback position. Whisenhunt pushed for the Kevin Kolb trade, but it hasn't worked out. Things have been so bad the Cardinals are finishing the season with Ryan Lindley and Brian Hoyer as their quarterbacks. That could be it for him.

In the AFC East, disappointing seasons by Rex Ryan with the New York Jets and Chan Gailey of the Buffalo Bills could cost them their jobs, but there is better than 50 percent chance they will stay.

Don't expect changes in Oakland with Dennis Allen and Jacksonville with Mike Mularkey after one season. That would be a little bit too quick. And Jason Garrett should be fine in Dallas.

Heading the list of hot assistants for head coaching jobs are Bruce Arians of the Colts, McCoy and Jay Gruden of the Cincinnati Bengals. There are thoughts Patriots offesnive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who flopped in Denver, could get a second chance. Redskins offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan's name is one the radar for what he did with Robert Griffin III in Washington.

Former head coaches such as Todd Haley and Tom Cable could get interviews.

'Tis the season.

From the inbox

Where will Michael Vick land next season? Howard Smith/USA TODAY Sports

Q: On another website there is a take on Joe Banner of the Browns pursuing Michael Vick in the offseason. But to me, wouldn't the Cardinals be a perfect fit for him with Larry Fitzgerald, a hopefully healthy Beanie Wells and maybe sign an O-lineman and decent tight end? If they stay healthy, the Cardinals would have the offense and still have their good secondary to defend the pass well.

Justin in Elk Grove, Calif.

A: First, let's start with the Browns. Joe Banner is very meticulous and will study various options. He is still determining if Brandon Weeden is the right quarterback. There was a report this week that he might go for Ryan Mallett if Josh McDaniels is a consideration to come to Cleveland. Because Vick is probably going to be released within five days after the season, Banner and the Browns have more than a month to look at him.

As for the Cardinals, they must do something. If they don't go for West Virginia's Geno Smith in the draft, they will have to look at Vick, Alex Smith and anyone else who is available. I still think they should keep Ken Whisenhunt as head coach. They have a good defense. Getting a quarterback could put them back at the eight- or nine-win level at the very least.

Q: Is there a better way to judge quarterback performances comparatively in your opinion? Remember, Joe Flacco outplayed Tom Brady in that AFC Championship last year. Yes, Flacco may have had better stats than Brady, but Flacco also was playing against one of the worst statistical defenses in the league while Brady was up against one of the best. I would dare say if Brady played against the Patriots' defense of last year, he would have put up career numbers week in and week out.

Benjamin in Grand Rapids, Mich.

A: ESPN's QBR system is about the best statistical evaluator of a quarterback's performance during a game and during the season. The NFL quarterback rating system is old and can be deceiving. As you know, I'm a big believer in Flacco. I consider him an elite quarterback, even though there are many times he hasn't played like one in the past two years. Brady is a Hall of Famer. The Ravens' defense isn't as good as it was last year. If they meet in the playoffs, the advantage would go to the Patriots.

Q: I keep hearing how Jim Caldwell is calling plays for the first time as the offensive coordinator for the Ravens. How is it that he got a head coaching job in Indy without ever calling plays? Has this happened before in the league?

Edwin in Houston

A: Great question. Caldwell, who was the quarterbacks coach with the Colts under Tony Dungy, got the head coaching job at Indianapolis because the team wanted continuity. One of the reasons Caldwell and others who haven't been coordinators become head coaches is because there are too many coaching changes in the NFL and there aren't enough top-level coordinators to fill them. Ravens coach John Harbaugh never called plays on defense and was a special teams coach, yet he has been a successful head coach. When you have seven to nine head-coach openings each year, there simply are not enough coordinators being developed to handle all of the openings. You will see more during this offseason and future seasons if owners continue to churn through head coaches.