TALLINN - The number of asylum applications in Estonia by citizens hailing from war-torn Ukraine has risen sharply this year as they seek refuge and safety within EU borders.

In contrast with application numbers last year – zero – between March this year, when the Russian Federation annexed the Crimean peninsula, and the end of August, this number had risen to 32. A further three applications have been submitted since then, taking the total applications from Ukraine to Estonia to 35 in 8 months.

These figures merely refer to those Ukrainians seeking a permanent home in Estonia, away from the bloodshed and violence that has dogged their home country. Aside from these 35 applications, according to official figures, around 23,000 ethnic Ukrainians already live in Estonia, making this group the third largest ethnicity in the country, behind Estonians and Russians.

The Estonian government has, in recent days, been upping its rhetoric in support of opening its borders to those who share a close connection with Estonia, who may have relatives there, and are wishing to flee Ukraine.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced, “Ukrainian citizens living in conflict areas, especially in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast, who have relatives or loved ones in Estonia, can now apply for free long-term visas obtained through simplified procedures.”

President Toomas Hendrik Ilves solidified this stance by asking the Estonian government to cooperate over the issue and not let bureaucracy stand in the way of a pragmatic humanitarian solution.

Statements by key members of government in support of opening the borders to Ukrainian refugees directly followed the announcement that 10 Ukrainian citizens would be flown to Tallinn for treatment of injuries sustained in fighting. The Ukrainians in question landed at Tallinn’s Lennart Meri Airport early on the morning of Sept. 23, and were destined for the North Estonia Medical Center in Mustamae.

This rise in asylum applications comes despite the fragile ceasefire brokered between the Ukrainian government and the pro-Russian separatist movement on Sept. 5.

Although shots continue to be fired in the east of the country – largely in the disputed Donestsk and Luhansk regions where most of the heaviest fighting has taken place so far – there has been a clear decrease in the level of intensity of the fighting in recent weeks.

This reduction in hostility has coincided with the introduction of a number of measures put in place to limit the covert, yet direct, involvement of Russian forces and equipment in aid of the separatists who continue their fight for autonomy and governance in the region. Meanwhile, government forces attempt to maintain control over the country and enforce the sovereignty of its borders.

Preventative measures by the EU include economic sanctions on Russian individuals and companies, along with the announcement, earlier last month, of a semi-permanent NATO ground force that will be based in the Baltic States. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen stated, on Aug. 27, that there will be “…the pre-positioning of supplies, of equipment, preparation of infrastructure, bases, headquarters. The bottom line is you will in the future see a more visible NATO presence in the east.”

However, these preventative measures are failing to stem the flow of refugees from Ukraine.

According to official figures from the United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR), more than 1 million Ukrainians have been displaced as a result of the fighting. Vincent Cochetel, director of the Agency’s European bureau, said, “It’s safe to say you now have over a million people displaced as a result of the crisis,” reported The New York Times.

In a statement regarding the humanitarian crisis, United Nations high commissioner for refugees Antonio Guterres added, “If the crisis is not quickly stopped, it will have not only devastating humanitarian consequences, but it also has the potential to destabilize the whole region.”

He went on to say, “After the lessons of the Balkans, it is hard to believe a conflict of these proportions could unfold in the European continent.”

There are obvious fears that the number of refugees will continue to rise as the situation in Ukraine remains unstable.

However, Estonia is not traditionally a common choice of location for those seeking a safe haven from conflict. In fact, it boasts the lowest number of asylum applications out of all 28 member states. But since 2010, the number of asylum applicants in Estonia has been on the increase and equaled 97 people last year.

In spite of this increase, the number of people who were actually granted asylum in the northern-most Baltic State has been in steady decline, numbering just 7 successful applications last year. This is a situation that key European allies and political figures outside the country are keen to reverse, however, with a UNHCR representative stating, “We are not expecting Estonia to accept hundreds of refugees, but Estonia could in the near future offer protection to refugees the same way Estonians were rescued when they had to leave their home country in the past.”

It remains to be seen whether asylum applications to Estonia from Ukrainian citizens will continue to increase as the struggle to the east rumbles on. What is clear, though, is that regardless of political rhetoric, or the brokering of fragile ceasefires, the impact of the current situation in Ukraine will be lasting, and its repercussions will be felt not only by the indigenous population, but will be the concern of all peoples, wherever they call home.

