The Toronto Maple Leafs are off to a rougher start than expected. After their first 13 games, the team is 6-5-2, a pedestrian 88-point pace that has the fan base even more tense than usual.



The team is lacking the consistency of an elite club, mired in mediocrity, a place Toronto has been since last January. Based on the team’s win probability from each game in 2019-20, the Leafs have earned 1.3 fewer wins than expected, a difference that ranks ninth-worst in the league. That’s far from ideal, but an extra win and the team is pretty much right on track with where they should be. However, things could be much worse in that department, as it is in Dallas (minus-2.6 wins) and New Jersey (minus-2.5 wins).



Where the Maple Leafs are losing ground in the standings is in back-to-backs, specifically against rested opponents. Of Toronto’s first 13 games, four have been the second game of a back-to-back against a rested club. The Leafs have dropped all...