By Kang Seung-woo



North Korea may take provocative action against South Korea in March right after the Korea-U.S. joint military exercise, an affiliated body of the nation's spy agency said Tuesday.



According to a report by the Institute for National Security Strategy (ISS), North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is likely to instigate a provocation in order to strengthen his control within the regime and emphasize the importance of loyalty among the Pyongyang elite.



Last month, Jang Song-thaek, Kim's uncle who was instrumental in enabling Kim's transition to power two years ago, was executed on charges of treason, along with other officials, sparking concerns about potential instability in the isolated country.



"To justify its action, it is expected to be conducted right after the end of the Korea-U.S. joint exercise when they are on a lower alert against the Stalinist country," the report said.



Key Resolve, an annual combined and joint command post exercise, is usually staged in March, which North Korea describes as rehearsals by the allies for an invasion of the Stalinist state.



Angered by the exercise ― along with the Foal Eagle exercises, another bilateral military drill ― the North threatened to strike the United States and the South earlier this year, and went as far as shutting down the Gaeseong Industrial Complex, the last remaining symbol of inter-Korean cooperation.



It added that since its third nuclear test in February, the North has beefed up its military strength against the South by performing intensive trainings, increasing its fleet of attack helicopters and multiple rocket launchers near the inter-Korean maritime border in the Yellow Sea off the west coast.



The ISS said that Pyongyang's options for provocation range from multiple rocket launchers or submarines near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) or Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) to carrying out tests of long-range missiles or nuclear bombs.



However, in the wake of the sinking of the naval ship Cheonan and shelling of Yeonpyeong Island by the North, both of which took place in 2010, Seoul has consequently boosted its defense posture, thereby preventing the reclusive state from staging any further provocation, the report noted.



As a result, North Korea may resort to cyber terrorism including hacking and distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks. There has been a spate of hacking attacks on South Korea in recent years most of which have been blamed on the North.



The report comes after Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin and National Intelligence Service Chief Nam Jae-joon came up with similar predictions of a possible North Korean provocation between January and March, given its previous track record. As a result, President Park Geun-hye has ordered the military to beef up its vigilance against the North's possible hostilities, with Seoul vowing to retaliate against any provocations.



