Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach

The GOP pollster Remington Research, which did not identify a client, is out with our first look at the August GOP primary for governor of Kansas, and there's a surprise. Jeff Colyer, who ascended to the governor's office weeks ago, has a narrow 23-21 lead over presumptive frontrunner Kris Kobach, Kansas' notorious secretary of state. Former state Sen. Jim Barnett, who badly lost the 2006 race to Democrat Kathleen Sebelius, is a distant third with 8 percent, while wealthy businessman Wink Hartman, former state Rep. Mark Hutton, and state Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer each barely register. However, all three of them have plenty of money in the bank, so they may have room to grow.

Colyer posts a 36-14 rating, but half of respondents haven't made up their minds about their new chief executive. But more interestingly, GOP primary voters give Kobach just a 42-35 favorable rating, a very weak score from his party, especially for this early in the race. Kobach is a close Trump ally, but that association may not be helping him. Kobach has devoted much of his time towards spearheading Trump's bogus voter-fraud commission, a group that's now thankfully defunct. It's possible that even a significant number of Kansas Republicans were unhappy with Kobach's prominent role in this witch-hunt, or they just feel he's not spending enough time in the state doing his nominal day job. It's also worth noting that Kobach raised a surprisingly weak amount of money in the last year, so if his image is already in trouble, he may not have the resources he needs to repair it.

Of course, as we always caution, no one should make conclusions about the state of a race based on just one poll. The only other recent survey we've seen was a Moore Information poll that took a look at both parties primaries. However, that survey sampled a total of 400 respondents, which almost certainly means that there were fewer than 300 voters per primary, which is exactly the minimum Daily Kos Elections requires to include a poll in the Digest. (We explain why here.)