Acceptance of loving, committed gay and lesbian couples is on the rise and, consequently, the marriage debate does not have the same heat it used to. Republicans, beware of marriage politics

In his Ideas piece for Tuesday’s Politico, “ Can gay marriage save the GOP again?” former presidential candidate Gary Bauer makes misleading and inaccurate claims.

Bauer argues that the issue of gay marriage helped catapult the GOP to electoral success in 2004 and directly led to President Bush’s reelection. But that theory, long rumored in the aftermath of the 2004 election, has been disproved.


Some analysts inaccurately credited Bush’s 2004 reelection to his use of the marriage issue to improve the turnout of his base. However, Matthew Dowd, Bush’s chief strategist in 2004, says the marriage issue was not the reason Bush won reelection. The New York Times quotes Dowd as saying, “At best, it doesn’t move voters, and at worst for Republicans, it moves them against them. Not so much on the issue, but it becomes, ‘Why are we having a discussion on this issue when we should be talking about things that matter, like the economy, or health care or the war?’”

Even so, Bauer’s argument doesn’t hold water, because 2008 is not 2004. The politics surrounding marriage are changing quickly.

In 2006, the five Republicans who used marriage most prominently as a wedge issue all lost. Sens. Rick Santorum (Pa.) and George Allen (Va.), Reps. John Hostetler (Ind.) and Anne Northup (Ky.), and Ken Blackwell (in his race for Ohio governor) tried to win with anti-gay campaign tactics. They didn’t necessarily lose because of their tactics, but these tactics didn’t prevent them from losing, as they might have a decade ago.

Support for marriage equality is growing. Pew Forum polling shows a 6 percent increase in support for marriage equality in the past four years. A recent Field poll in California showed 54 percent of respondents opposing an anti-marriage constitutional amendment that will be on the ballot in November — an initiative Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger opposes. And many who oppose marriage equality support civil unions — nationwide, combined support for allowing marriage or civil unions for gay and lesbian couples approaches 60 percent. It’s only a matter of time before the law treats all families equally.

Acceptance of loving, committed gay and lesbian couples is on the rise and, consequently, the marriage debate does not have the same heat it used to. Republicans who try exploiting the issue for political gain this November will fail. And they’ll further alienate the young people who are already leaving the GOP in droves.

Unfortunately, prospects for House and Senate Republicans look bleak in November. Our party ended up in the minority because we forgot what fiscal responsibility meant, got fat with pork barrel spending and lost our compass on ethics. Republicans also spent much of 2006 debating divisive wedge issues such as a federal constitutional ban on marriage equality and the Terry Schiavo case. Making these wedge issues a prominent part of the GOP agenda made the party look out of touch with the priorities of average Americans. This disconnect with average voters cost Republicans the majority in Congress — pollsters agree Democrats won in 2006 because of independents (exit polls showed independents voting for Democrats by 57 percent to 39 percent).

Interestingly enough, the two GOP U.S. senators targeted by Democrats, who should be in the most electoral danger given their constituency — Susan Collins of Maine and Gordon Smith of Oregon, are in the best position to win reelection in 2008. Not surprisingly, both Smith and Collins have strong records in favor of fairness and freedom for gay and lesbian Americans.

So, a word to my fellow Republicans: If we choose the politics of fear and division that helped defeat our party in 2006, we will alienate the independent voters who will decide this election. We will suffer an even bigger defeat in 2008.

Patrick Sammon is president of Log Cabin Republicans, an organization working to make the GOP more inclusive on gay and lesbian issues.