This October is the 25th Anniversary of the Loma Prieta Earthquake, which is synonymous in the memories of Bay Area Residents with the Bay Bridge World Series. In conversations with fellow Bay Area residents I introduce myself as someone who studies earthquakes, so I naturally hear a lot of other peoples accounts and thoughts on earthquakes. In nearly everyone’s account of the Loma Prieta earthquake they mention the World Series. It’s 25 years later and the Oakland A’s and San Francisco Giants are both leading their respective leagues. Are they headed to a 2014 Bay Bridge World Series? What are the odds of a large earthquake in the Bay Area between today (June 1) and then?

Using Las Vegas odds, and USGS probabilities the comparison can be quantified, granted these are probabilities based upon large uncertainty, nonetheless let’s explore.

This was not the case a month ago at the start of the season, when two things were true: (1) The A’s and Giants weren’t predicted to be this good, (2) their was an extra month for the earthquake to have occurred. Then the probabilities were 1.43% for a Bay Bridge World Series, and 1.71% for a M6.7 Bay Area earthquake before then.

But statistics are statistics and you came make them say whatever you want them to. While the probability of a M 6.7 earthquake in the Bay Area in the next 147 days is 1.42% if you expand the area of the earthquake occurrence to the SF Giants and Oakland A’s California territory (as defined by NY Times’ social media produced map) the probability increases. The probability of a M 6.7 earthquake in Northern California is greater than the likelihood of a 2014 Bay Bridge World Series.

As always, the Bay Area has a very real likelihood of a major earthquake. The intention of this piece is just another reminder to Bay Area residents that earthquakes are a part of our lives and we can’t be passive about the risk. Also, its a reminder to make it to the Colesium and AT&T Park for the nations best baseball. Go A’s! Go Giants!

Questioning the math? Check out the methodology from the original post at the start of the season.