There are a whole lotta new cars on the horizon, an exorbitant number of them are crossovers, and the bounty comes as millions of vehicles come off lease and threaten to send the U.S. auto industry into a frightening downward spiral in the next few years.

That is according to Car Wars 2018-2021, an annual report on the future health of the U.S. auto industry by Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research. The study, in its 27th year, was presented by senior auto analyst John Murphy in Detroit at an Automotive Press Association event. The report forecasts product launches and has proven fairly accurate over the years, given how unpredictable the industry can be.

Traditionally the industry averages about 39 new vehicle launches a year. But for the 2018-2021 model years, the average will be an anxiety-inducing 57 vehicle launches a year, with 35 percent of those being crossovers. The segment is becoming crowded already and is poised to grow from 78 nameplates now to 110 by 2021, making the space even more competitive. Many are coming from German luxury brands Mercedes-Benz and BMW, and they could take some market share from the Detroit Three, Murphy says.

See all 6 photos

The annual study assesses the relative strength of the players based on what products are in the pipeline. Companies with the freshest lineups are rewarded with greater market share which drives profits and stock price. The strength of financial performance was underscored this week with news that Ford ousted CEO Mark Fields whose three year tenure was marred by a 40-percent drop in stock price. And despite the fact that Ford sees itself as a leader in trucks, SUVs, and electric vehicles, there has been criticism that the automaker has been slow to bring the Ford EcoSport small crossover to the U.S., the return of the Bronco SUV is not until 2020, Lincoln still awaits its version of the Ford Explorer, and on the truck side, the automaker is not bringing the Ranger pickup to the U.S. until 2019.

Ford's upcoming products

Ford may be light on new products for the 2018 model year, as it's replacing only 25 percent of its lineup, but it has a couple of aces up its sleeve with the 2018 Ford Expedition and Lincoln Navigator. You could argue they should have come sooner to take advantage of the current SUV craze and lower fuel prices—Murphy said they could generate $1 billion—but coming later this year the two SUVs are still poised to challenge the stranglehold General Motors has had on the large SUV segment.

For 2019, look for a new Explorer and companion Lincoln Aviator, the EcoSport, Ranger, and Focus. Ford is expected to update its massively important F-150 in 2020 as well as launch a new Escape/Lincoln MKC, the Ford Fusion/Lincoln MKZ, the Bronco, and another crossover. The 2021 lineup should include the overdue electric crossover with a range of more than 200 miles, a Lincoln flagship sedan, Mustang coupe and convertible, and a coupe for Lincoln.

See all 6 photos

General Motors on a roll

GM will replace 84 percent of its lineup by the 2021 model year, second only to Toyota in its ambitions. The 2018 model year was heavy on crossovers with the Regal hatch and TourX wagon thrown in for good measure. Still to come for 2019 is the return of the Chevrolet Blazer, Cadillac XT4 crossover, a small Cadillac CT2 sedan, the mid-engine Corvette, and new large pickups. For the 2020 model year, Cadillac continues to expand with the XT3 small crossover as well as the XT6 and a CT4 sedan, and a new Buick Encore, heavy-duty pickups, and the large SUVs (Tahoe, Suburban, Yukon, and Escalade) are on the docket as well. For 2021, watch out for a new Trax/Cadillac XT1, GMC Jimmy SUV, Cadillac CT10 big sedan as well as a smaller CT8, new Chevy Sonic, and Volt. Murphy says GM's large trucks and crossovers position the automaker to gain some share and maintain strong pricing.

FCA on tap

See all 6 photos

Japan's Toyota on a tear

Toyota will replace 85 percent of its lineup over the next four years, including all the biggies. The 2019 model-year launches include the RAV4, 4Runner, Avalon, and Yaris as well as Lexus GX, ES, and CT hatchback. For 2020, look for a new Highlander, Land Cruiser, Sienna minivan, and Corolla as well as Lexus LX, GS, IS, and NX midsize crossover. Then for 2021 is a new Tundra and Sequoia, as well as the Prius and Lexus RC coupe.

Honda loses consistency

"Honda is a weird one. It has traditionally been a case study in consistency. The next four years will be very inconsistent," Murphy said, veering into the erratic. For 2018 there is the new Accord, Odyssey, Clarity, CR-Z, and Insight, followed next year by slim pickings with only the Acura RDX and Honda Passport midsize crossover. For the 2020 model year, it is slimmer still with only the Acura TLX coupe and sedan. Then 2021 has an onslaught with a new Pilot, HR-V, Civic, and Fit as well as Acura ILX and RLX sedans and the MDX crossover.

See all 6 photos

Nissan adrift

"Nissan is still a boat adrift," Murphy said, making it hard to forecast given how sporadic and disorganized it is. The Versa launches this year and for the 2019 model year there is a new Z, Leaf, Altima, Infiniti Q70 sedan, and a successor to the Juke. For 2020, there could be a new Pathfinder, Rogue, and Sentra as well as the Infiniti QX60 and QX80 crossovers. Looking out to the 2021 model year is the Infiniti QX70 CUV, Q60 coupe, and Q50 sedan, as well as the new Nissan Murano and NV200 commercial van.

Europeans and Koreans

European automakers could see a bit of a drop in market share over the next four years. While Volkswagen will replace its lineup at an average rate, many other carmakers are slowing down a bit. All are focused on crossovers, adding a lot of new nameplates.

Murphy said the Koreans still have a boom-bust portfolio with not as many vehicles launching for the 2018-2020 model years, and then a slew of new vehicles for 2021. Notably, the Hyundai Santa Cruz small pickup could launch as a 2020.

See all 6 photos

Electric vehicle components are expensive

Everyone is working on electrification but it is still too costly. Murphy said components in a conventional vehicle cost almost $22,000 compared with about $35,600 for an electric car. "So the economics still don't make sense," he said, and until that extra $14,000 in cost comes down, electric vehicles will remain a single-digit percentage of the market. The math also raises questions about the ability of Tesla to make money on the Model 3.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch forecasts 17.9 million U.S. auto sales this year and then a trough about 2020 down to 14 million. Murphy warned this year could be lower because of a giant red flag: The number of vehicles coming off lease in 2017, 3.5 million, is at an all-time high. The industry is running about 30 percent lease penetration which is about 10 percent above normal. So the industry could start to deteriorate as early as this year if the tsunami of off-lease volumes hits shore this year instead of 2018. The glut of used vehicles will hit epic proportions in 2019 and 2020, Murphy said. He thinks automakers will try to keep incentives from spiraling out of control by cutting back on production.