So surprisingly, I haven’t managed to do my weekly Braves blog but I wanted to do one today on BJ Upton’s ridiculous start to the season. It seems like a lot of Braves fans have given up hope on him but I’m not one of them. There’s no possible way for Upton to keep up the horrific start and he will eventually turn things around. Before the season began, I predicted that all 3 of the Braves outfielders could have possible 30/30 seasons and probably the best defense in baseball. The second half of that statement has certainly shown to be true with the outfield being stellar defensively. So what has caused BJ’s slow start? I’ll try to give my best explanation.

The first and most obvious excuse is that BJ has never really been a GREAT hitter. He’s been known over the last few years to be a free swinger and that’s certainly true during his tenure with the Braves as well as shown by his .246 OBP. Upton has a few holes in his swing and you can see his footwork changing almost weekly. What most don’t understand is that hitting is an art and if something is off, it can literally throw everything off. We’ve seen that with Jason Heyward’s struggles in 2011 compared to 2012. Upton will eventually gets things turned around, and I personally believe he’s on the way to that success right now, as I’ll explain a little later. So is being a free swinger really that big of a deal? Yes and no. One of the biggest reasons that it is hurting him I believe, is that he’s coming into the National League for the first time, which is notoriously known as a pitcher’s league as compared to the AL. Take into account that he’s facing a lot of guys that he’s never seen before and his free swinging ways, and you can expect a bit of growing pains. But the new league and the free swinging ways aren’t all of the problem.

Another reason that BJ has to improve is because he’s simply had a ton of bad luck. His infield fly ball rate is at an insane 29%, with the league average being around 10%. What this is telling about is that BJ is simply getting under balls that he’s making contact on and popping them up. Assuming BJ is seeing the ball well, this could simply be a factor that will regress back to the norm. Another stat that is telling is his strikeout rate, which is sitting at almost 36% currently. Now when the Braves signed him, they knew that he was notorious for striking out, with a career rate at about 25%. Again, this is something that once his timing and footwork get worked out, will go back to average. A lot of people don’t realize that getting your foot down and planted in time will slow your bat down and cause swing and misses or poor contact. This is why you see a lot of focus on BJ’s footwork over the last few weeks.

So what should we expect from Upton this season and when will he turn it all around? It’s hard to really tell because he’s a very streaky hitter. During last season, he had two separate 42 game stretches where he was ice cold and then red hot. His averages between the two stretches were .195 and .320. Assuming he can pull off a similar feat, and hit somewhere around .300 over the next 40 games or so, BJ could save what started out as a lost season. And, as I stated above, I think he’s starting to show signs of life. Over the last 6 games at home, BJ hit .235 with a homer and one walk. His overall batting average has jumped from .141 to .155 during the home stretch and he’s certainly making better contact. Even if you look at the outs that he’s making, he’s driving the ball more and really making positive strides at breaking out, which will really be scary to add to this already scary lineup. Assuming BJ continues this trend, and continues making positive strides, his numbers will increase. I believe that as his contact rates go up, pitchers will begin to try to pitch around him a bit more, rather than throwing meat at him knowing that he probably won’t catch up to it, which will lead to a bump in his walk totals and push his OBP up more. I think at the end of the year, a .240 average with 18 homers and 20 steals would be a successful season for BJ given the start. However, keep in mind last year BJ really tore the ball off the cover after the all-star break. He hit 23 of his 28 homers from July-September and really sparked Tampa’s offense. If he can go on the same kind of tear for the Braves, then 25/30 is certainly a possibility still, just not a likely one.

All in all, baseball players go through slumps and hot streaks. The one thing that doesn’t really lie in baseball is numbers. No one can stay terrible or amazing for an entire season. They will eventually regress to the norm, it always happens. So don’t be surprised when you start seeing BJ improving at the plate. Just remember, he can’t really get any worse, so it’s only up from here!