Data point to only minor effect on production

A deficient monsoon does not necessarily affect India’s foodgrain production severely. Since 1976, rainfall dropped by more than 10 per cent over the previous year nine times. However, only in two of these years, food production fell by a corresponding percentage. In the remaining seven, the fall was minor, an analysis by The Hindu shows.

The finding is in line with Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s statement on Thursday that foodgrain production would not be affected in the event of deficient rainfall this year.

This year, however, is a rarity — if the forecast of the India Meteorological Department of deficient rainfall holds, then this would be the second consecutive year to experience the shortfall. “There could be a cause for worry … The effect on agriculture of deficient rainfall two years in a row is much more disastrous — the detrimental effect can be more than double the effect of a single year of deficient rainfall,” former Planning Commission Member and economist Abhijit Sen told The Hindu.

Mr. Sen pointed out that the last time India had two consecutive years of deficient rainfall in 1986 and 1987, food production did decline, but it bounced back sharply owing to surplus rains in 1988.

Data for the previous incidence of back-to-back rainfall deficient years, 1904-05 and 1965-66, were not available.

Mr. Sen said that since this was the first time the IMD had predicted a drought, it was a very strong signal that should not be played down.

Since 1976, nine years recorded there has been a more than 10 per cent drop in rainfall over the previous year. However, of these, only two years saw food production falling by a corresponding amount. In the remaining seven, the fall in food production was minor, an analysis by The Hindu shows.

The analysis, however, shows that the problem India is likely to face is of food management — getting food from surplus areas to deficient areas — rather than production.

In half of the nine years analysed above , the rise in wholesale price inflation during the subsequent year was more than normal.

Rainfall and wholesale price inflation usually move in opposite directions (excess rainfall reduces inflation while deficient rain causes it to shoot up sharply).

The Modi government had managed to contain inflation last year despite poor rainfall with measures such as foodgrain releases from buffer stocks. It will have to repeat its feat this year as well, Mr. Jaitley had said.

Professor of Economics at the Indian Statistical Institute in New Delhi Bharat Ramaswami told The Hindu, that the quantum of rainfall is not the only parameter that affects foodgrain production. The geographical spread of the rainfall is as important, if not more so the overall quantum of rain the country receives. “The average rainfall level across the country usually fluctuates within a narrow range. More important is to see how many regions are facing rainfall deficiency,” Mr. Ramaswami said.

Often, only some regions experience deficient rainfall while others receive the normal amounts of rain. Other times, a large number of regions experience deficient rainfall, and that is much more harmful, he said.