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The figures are very close to the government’s own projections for revenues. The Department of Finance predicted the fuel charge will bring in $2.36 billion in 2019-20 and $5.7 billion in 2022-23.

Ottawa has committed — and has now written into law — that 90 per cent of the revenues collected from the fuel charge will be returned to individual households in the provinces where the revenues were raised. The PBO report says over the next five years all but the wealthiest 20 per cent of Canadian households will get more back from the rebate than they will pay in carbon tax.

The rebates are the same regardless of income, but wealthier Canadians tend to own bigger homes, drive more and bigger cars, and consume more products, all of which contribute to a higher carbon tax total.

In Saskatchewan for instance, the average household is expected to pay $425 in carbon tax this year, and will get $598 back from the rebate. In Ontario, the average cost will be $256, and the average rebate $300. In Manitoba, the average cost will be $260 and the average rebate $336, and in New Brunswick the average cost will be $193 and the average rebate $248.

The wealthiest families in Saskatchewan, Ontario and New Brunswick will pay between $13 and $50 more in carbon tax than they receive from the rebate. In Manitoba, the wealthiest families will still be better off by $37, the PBO says.

The lowest-income families will get $70 more than they pay in Saskatchewan, $101 in Manitoba, $89 in Ontario and $63 in New Brunswick.