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The next few weeks will be crucial. It was right for Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande, the German and French leaders, to go to Moscow. So far they have carried off their task well, displaying an openness to listen rather than a willingness to buckle.

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Britain’s marginal role is a reflection of the new reality of European politics. Merkel is fighting against a German political establishment that has long sought to accommodate Russia. Hollande’s predicament is similar. Putin saw how easy it was during the 2003 Iraq war for George Bush to mischaracterize Europe into “new” and “old.” But the core of that division remains, with Poland and most of Eastern Europe fearful of Russia and determined to be tough with Moscow, while others are keen to cut deals. The EU’s new high representative for foreign affairs, the Italian Federica Mogherini, has a track record of being soft on Russia. Britain has lurched from weakness (the initial attempts to prevent a full inquiry into the polonium poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko being the most abject example of appeasement) into a stronger position.

Putin will have to be convinced that it is not in his long-term interests to play with fire in Ukraine. The most effective counter-measures against Putin remain economic.

So far the sanctions have been little more than pinpricks. Russian money laundering and thuggery are intertwined. Putin and his cronies are at the heart of the action.

Western governments and banks know where is vulnerable. But are they willing to take the financial hit to strike back at him?