Academics split on who benefits from record turnout

Long queues were seen at polling stations throughout the city, but academics are split about which political camp this will benefit. Photo: RTHK

Cheung Chor-yung speaks to RTHK's Wendy Wong

Academics were divided on Sunday evening as to whether the unprecedented turnout for the District Council elections would see pro-establishment parties consolidate their position of strength or see the pro-democracy camp make big gains.



By 8.30pm, more than 2.75 million people had cast their ballots in the district elections, representing 66.5 percent of the city’s 4.13 million eligible voters.



The elections are the first since widespread anti-government protests erupted in June, and are being seen by some people as a referendum on the city’s leadership and its handling of the political crisis.



Cheung Chor-yung, a political scientist at City University, said experience from previous elections shows that a high voter turnout favours the pro-democracy camp, and he expects that will be the case in this election too.



“In general, I think it’s favorable to the democrats and this time round it should be the same situation though it’s too early to say whether they can have an overwhelming victory,” he said.



But a senior lecturer at the Department of Government and Public Administration of Chinese University, Ivan Choy, said the high voter turnout was “abnormal” and the “traditional wisdom may not apply”.



Choy said some people might still vote for the pro-establishment camp even if they dislike the government as they may hope social order could be restored after months of protests.



“Some voters may dislike the government but they are also anxious about the current social situation. So they may not vote for the pro-democracy camp just because [the government's] popularity rating is at a record low,” he said.



Meanwhile, Cheung said the record voter turnout was “expected” in light of the ongoing anti-government protests as well as efforts made by both pro-democracy and pro-government camps to mobilise their supporters.



He noted that voters’ willingness to wait in long queues outside polling stations shows they are “determined to make their voices heard”.



“They really want to use their votes to demonstrate their support to the people that they think can represent them, either against the government or in support of the government. It’s a good indicator to show how passionate the voters feel this time,” he said.



He said he hopes the election results can be a way out for the political impasse as people see there are peaceful means to settle their differences.