Editor’s Note: Thank you again to Steve Lilly for his value of a goal table and his expanded explanation this week on how the metric works. You can find him on twitter @backtozerouk.

This week I had a little time to reflect on the value of a goal and updated the algorithm which gives a little more credence to the value as I see it. Notably the average value of the 262 goals scored in the NASL rises from 3.03 to 3.61.

The score for a given goal is calculated as follows

The status of the game after the goal is scored divided by the total number of goals in the game plus any other factors.

Here again are the scenarios

Scenario Value Take the lead 10 Equalizer 8 2 goal lead 6 Pull within 1 4 3 goal lead 2 Pull within 2 2 Other goal 1 Take lead last 10 min. 6 Equalizer last 10 min. 4 Away Goal 1 Individual 2nd Goal 1 Individual 3rd Goal 2 Individual >3rd Goal 3

So let’s say the second goal for a player is last minute equalizer for the away team in a 2-2 draw calculates as follows

Equalizer 8 Divided by goals 4 Equals 2 Plus Away Goal 1 Plus Equalizer Last 10 4 Plus Indiv. 2nd Goal 1 Total Value 8

On 06/08 Sadi Jalali scored one goal in a 6-1 victory for Edmonton at home to Carolina to go 5 ahead

Other Goal 1 Divided by Goals 7 0.14

On 08/23 Ty Shipalane scored the only goal of the game for Carolina at Tampa Bay in the 90th Minute

Take the lead 10 Divided by goals 1 Equals 10 Plus Take lead last 10 6 Away Goal 1 Total Value 17

So that being said let’s look at the table for the NASL Fall Season through the September 7th game between Ottawa and Carolina.

Total Value

Name Goals Total Value Ramirez 14 55.27 Shipalane 4 44.50 Kleberson 8 34.57 Picault 8 34.42 Hristov 6 32.93 Heinemann 4 30.83 Chavez 7 27.50 Guenzatti 3 26.00 Mendes D 8 24.73 Hassli 4 23.93

Average Value

Name Goals Average Value Hill 1 11.00 Noselli 1 10.00 Shipalane 5 8.90 Guenzatti 3 8.67 Smart 2 8.50 Heinemann 4 7.71 Bracalello 2 6.25 Restrepo 2 6.17 Shriver 2 6.00 Hassli 4 5.98

5 Players appear in both tables with Ty Shipalane resplendent in 2nd and 3rd position and Eric Hassli sneaking in at 10th in each.

Other fun stuff I came across looking at the data!

There has not been a goal scored in the 2nd, 11th, 35th, 39th, 54th, or 67th minute The minute with the most goals is the 90th with 14 goals being scored 7 goals have been scored after the 90th minute the latest being 2 scored in the 95th Watch out if you are playing Indy 11, 9 of their 26 goals came in the last 15 minutes and 3 after the 90th, the only team to score more than once in stoppage time. Sana Antonio Scorpions scored 9 of their 31 at the same time Minnesota United meanwhile have only scored 3 of their 34 at the end of the game The Latest goal the New York Cosmos have scored is in the 85th minute Minnesota United are at their most dangerous right after the break scoring 10 in that opening 15 minutes They also have scored 6 in the first 15 minutes of a game. San Antonio Scorpions have only scored once before the 23rd minute and that was in the 15th Ottawa Fury are not much better with their 3 earliest goals coming in the 10th, 16th, and 24th minute The breakdown of goals per quarter hour is in order 12.6%, 13.4%, 17.6%, 15.6%, 18.7%, 22.1% 40.8% (107 of 262) of all goals have been scored in the last half hour 26.0% in the first half hour 33.2% Either side of the break