Sales of Florida orange juice and fresh citrus fruits have benefited from its healthful reputation during the COVID-19 pandemic, but it remains to be seen whether it represents a turnaround from almost 20 years of declining sales.

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LAKELAND — Retail sales of Florida orange juice have surged following nearly 20 years of continuous decline as consumers appear to be turning to OJ's most prominent health characteristic, vitamin C, during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Fresh citrus sales and grapefruit juice have also jumped during the past month, Florida citrus officials report.

But as with many statistics surrounding COVID-19, numbers don't tell the whole story. Uncertainty reigns.

Retail sales of all 100% orange juice products at major U.S. outlets rose 9.8% in gallons during the four-week period ending March 14, according to the latest report from the Florida Department of Citrus in Bartow. The report reflects data collected by the marketing research firm the Nielsen Co.

That report captured only the first wave of panic supermarket buying that began around late February or early March, when the threat of the pandemic sank into the public consciousness.

READ MORE: OJ industry warned not to mislead public during COVID-19 crisis

A more recent Nielsen report shows sales of not-from concentrate (NFC) orange juice rose 28% for the four-week period ending March 21, said Christopher Groom, chief operating officer at Florida's Natural Growers, the third largest OJ retailer in the U.S. That compares to a 9.3% increase in NFC orange juice sales in the Citrus Department report.

NFC orange juice is the most popular category of OJ products and is particularly important to the Florida citrus industry, which provides most of the oranges for that product. The Florida's Natural brand is entirely NFC orange and grapefruit juice.

Retail sales of 100% grapefruit juice have increased 2.4% by gallons, the Citrus Department reported. Sales of grapefruit juice have also trended down during the last two decades.

Sales of Uncle Matt's organic orange juice have risen 30% since March, said Matt McLean, the eponymous owner of Uncle Matt's Organic Inc. in Clermont.

“We're all riding the same tide that is raising orange juice sales in the U.S.,” McLean said. “I think we're going to see those numbers continue to go up.”

Groom, McLean and other Florida citrus officials agreed the OJ sales tide is fueled in part by the consumers' concern with healthy foods in reaction to COVID-19. Vitamin C in particular has been shown to be beneficial to the immune system and overall health.

“There's always been a consumer awareness of the benefits of vitamin C to a healthy immune system,” Groom said.

But Groom added the increased awareness of OJ's health benefits plays only a partial role in the recent retail sales rise.

Another factor is that U.S. consumers are spending more time at home under COVID-19 stay-at-home orders in most states, he said. That means switching consumption from restaurants, schools and other foodservice outlets that have closed during the pandemic.

“I think it's mostly attributable to people increasing shopping in grocery stores,” Groom said. “They're not able to get (orange juice) in foodservice outlets.”

Florida's Natural sells in both retail and food service sectors, Groom said, and the latter has decreased significantly as restaurants, hotels and other customers have stopped buying OJ, he said.

“Our foodservice business has definitely been impacted negatively,” said Groom, who declined to release specific figures.

Florida's Natural won't know until the end of the Florida citrus season in August whether the rise in retail sales offset the loss in its foodservice business, he added.

Two leading economists in the Florida citrus industry agreed with Groom that the decline in foodservice sales has fueled higher OJ retail sales.

“You're going to see the retail bump mitigated by the decline in sales to foodservice,” Dan Gunter, an economist and former Citrus Department executive director, said on Thursday during an industry livestream conference. “I'll bet at the end of the day it will be a wash — at best a wash.”

Tom Spreen, a retired University of Florida agricultural economist who has studied Florida and global citrus for 40 years, agreed foodservice sales have offset OJ's retail performance, but he couldn't say whether total sales would ultimately increase for the season.

One reason is that there's not reliable data on the OJ volume sold to foodservice outlets, he said, and even the Nielsen data doesn't capture all U.S. retail sales.

Sales of fresh Florida oranges, grapefruit, tangerines and tangelos have also gotten a boost from the COVID-19 sales rush in March, fresh citrus representatives told The Ledger.

“One of the consistent themes I've heard is that, when you have a health-related event, it generally bodes very well for fresh citrus,” said Peter Chaires, the chief executive for the fresh industry's two major organizations: Florida Citrus Packers, the trade group for fresh citrus packinghouses, and the Citrus Administrative Committee, a federal marketing regulator. “We see people buying a lot more fresh fruits and vegetables, presumably to boost their immune systems.”

Packinghouses across the state have reported a significant increase in demand since March, he said.

The latest Citrus Department data on fresh citrus sales goes only up to March 1, the beginning of the pandemic-related retail sales boom. They do show an 8.2% increase in fresh grapefruit shipments to domestic and foreign customers, a 23% increase in orange shipments and nearly a 26% boost in tangerine and tangelo shipments.

“We had picked up sales for the (2019-20) season in general, but I think we saw a bigger pickup in March,” said George Hamner, president of Indian River Exchange Packers in Vero Beach, one of the state's largest packinghouses. “There has been an increased consumer perception of the positive side to vitamin C in boosting your immunity.”

Hamner agreed, however, a decline in the company's foodservice sales has offset the retail sales spike.

“The foodservice side of the business is way down,” he said.

Citrus growers, juice processors and packinghouse officials expressed optimism the heightened consumer awareness of their products' health benefits would last beyond the COVID-19 pandemic. Economists Gunter and Spreen were more skeptical.

Quention Roe, the CEO of W.G. Roe & Sons Inc., a Winter Haven grower and packinghouse owner, reported sales increases of more than 20% in March and April. About 80% of its business is to retail customers, he said.

Roe noted OJ and citrus products have historically sold well when marketing stressed their health benefits, a theme that's been inconsistent in recent years.

“We can do that again. It's just a play from the same playbook,” he said.

Doug Bournique, executive director of the Indian River Citrus League, which represents the state's grapefruit-growing region, agreed COVID-19 could mark the beginning of a long-term turnaround.

“I think this coronavirus is bringing people back in focus to the benefits of citrus: It's good for me. It helps boost my immune system, and it's something I need to have in my refrigerator,” he said.

Florida citrus won't know whether that optimistic outlook pans out until the market returns to “normal” after pandemic fears subside, Gunter and Spreen said.

“It's unclear whether this is a permanent shift in demand,” Spreen said. “I don't know.”

Kevin Bouffard can be reached at kevin.bouffard@theledger.com or at 863-802-7591.