SALEM — Last week, Republicans in Oregon’s Senate fled the state in order to block a vote on a high-profile climate change bill that would cap greenhouse gas emissions.

Oregon polluters who would pay under the plan include most industrial businesses, natural gas utilities and suppliers of diesel and gasoline, meaning drivers would eventually pay a lot more at the gas pump. Those are some of the concerns Republicans cited for their walk-out. Senate Democrats and Gov. Kate Brown promptly sent state troopers to try to retrieve the missing lawmakers.

With the walk-out now in its fifth day and showing no sign of abating, here’s what you need to know:

How unusual is it for Oregon lawmakers in one party to flee the state to stop action on a bill?

During the last 20 years, there were two high-profile walkouts prior to this session. In 2001, Oregon House Democrats left the Capitol and hid out for nearly a week to stop a vote on a Republican legislative redistricting bill. Since the governor was also a Democrat, House lawmakers did not have to worry that he would send state troopers after them.

The second incident was in 2007, when Senate Republicans denied Democrats a quorum in order to block a plan to convert $300 million in corporate tax refunds to a state rainy day fund. Senate President Peter Courtney dispatched state troopers to Oregon State University where then-Sens. Frank Morse of Corvallis and Roger Beyer of Molalla were watching the Beavers' opening game. Troopers chastised both men but ultimately didn’t have to bring them back: Democrats were only one member shy of a quorum and then-Sen. Ted Ferrioli agreed to return to the floor.

This is the second time Senate Republicans have walked out during the 2019 session. The first walkout centered on Republicans’ opposition to a multibillion-dollar business tax and also involved a long list of demands. It was resolved when Gov. Kate Brown agreed to kill vaccine and gun control bills. This time, the dispute appears centered on just the climate bill.

Are the Democrats in Oregon really refusing to listen to Republicans and compromise at all?

Republicans have repeated this line but it’s not entirely accurate. Democrats have made significant concessions to specific industry groups, including electric and natural gas utilities and the state’s entire industrial sector. They’ve also added provisions to blunt the policy’s impact on low-income Oregonians. But they have voted down or refused to hear amendments – some of them from Republicans and others authored by industry groups -- that they feel would remove enough teeth to make the legislation useless.

Democrats, for example, have agreed to waive most of the pollution fees for industrial companies that would be regulated, so long as they demonstrate they are using the “best available technology” to control emissions. But they’ve drawn the line at exempting transportation fuels from regulation, because that’s the biggest source of regulated emissions in the state -- and the hardest to reduce.

They’ve also balked at removing a provision in the bill that makes it effective as soon as the governor signs it. Democrats say giving Republicans an opportunity to gather signatures to refer the question to the November 2020 ballot would force years of delay by making it impossible to implement the bill in 2021.

Are state troopers really going to surveil and handcuff lawmakers? How have troopers acted in this situation in past standoffs?

Oregon State Police have called absent Republican senators on their cell phones and asked them to return to the Capitol. However, troopers do not appear to have plans to aggressively track the missing lawmakers or slap handcuffs on any they find. Instead, a police spokesman said last week that “patience and communication is and always will be our first, and preferred, option.”

Also, senators who have fled Oregon, primarily to Republican-friendly Idaho, are outside state troopers’ jurisdiction.

On Sunday, Sen. Cliff Bentz, R-Ontario, said that in a conversation with OSP Superintendent Travis Hampton, the superintendent said “if they found one of us, they would be extraordinarily polite and say, ‘It looks like we need to head to (the Capitol in) Salem.’” That appears in-line with OSP’s handling of walkouts earlier this year and in 2007.

Are Oregon Republicans really climate deniers?

Most Republicans insist they’re not climate deniers. Their main objection is that the policy would impose significant costs on Oregonians without a perceptible impact on the global problem. Oregon’s greenhouse emissions account for only 0.14 percent of global emissions. Eliminating them tomorrow would not have a noticeable impact on global emissions levels, experts agree.

Republicans don’t want to see Oregonians on the bleeding edge of a national transition to cleaner fuels by adopting a policy that could impose significant costs on consumers and lead economically vulnerable businesses that rural Oregonians are particularly reliant on to move to another state.

Why are Republicans so insistent on and Democrats so averse to letting the people of Oregon decide this issue?

Republicans know their constituents largely oppose the carbon cap, and they suspect many unaffiliated and Democratic voters also won’t be excited about higher gas prices. They want the people to have a say.

Democrats want the system, which they say appropriately protects key Oregon industries and low-income people, to take effect as soon as possible, not wait years for voter enactment and subsequent implementation.

Also, Washington voters twice rejected similar carbon pricing plans after heavy spending by opponents.

How do political insiders expect this to end?

While the Capitol and political circles are rife with speculation, no one really knows.

One possible scenario is that Republicans continue their boycott through the end of the legislative session on June 30, effectively killing the climate change bill along with all other pending bills. It’s also possible they could reach a deal to return before June 30 — or later this summer in a special session — to pass the remaining budget and other bills.

At some point this year, lawmakers will have to return to the Capitol to pass budget bills since agencies’ budgets would only be extended through mid-September under legislation lawmakers recently sent to the governor. In the meantime, Senate Republicans have gained an unprecedented national audience for their concerns about the bill.

Will this really decimate rural Oregonian’s family budgets through gas tax hikes?

With a projected 23 cents a gallon gas tax hike in 2021, Oregonians would definitely feel a pinch but the impact would depend upon how much a family drives. Ten years out, the tax burden could grow to 73 cents a gallon. Democrats have proposed rebates of the gas and diesel price increases for low-income households and logging and agricultural businesses. But it's also possible that future legislatures and voters would find further ways to dial back the impact of the bill on fuel prices.

What power does the governor have to solve this?

Brown’s tools to resolve the impasse are similar to legislators’, in that she can try to negotiate a deal with them, as she did during the previous walkout this session. Brown can also agree to send state police to find missing lawmakers, as she has already done, and she can call a special session that would tie up more of lawmakers’ summer. However, there is no guarantee absent Republicans would show up to provide a quorum for the special session.

— Hillary Borrud | hborrud@oregonian.com | 503-294-4034 | @hborrud

— Ted Sickinger | tsickinger@oregonian.com | 503-221-8505 | @tedsickinger

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