Some of you may be familiar with the predicted shots model developed here. In this post I’d like to assess recent predictions, predict shots for this upcoming weekend (EPL Week 23, January 23-24), and make some FPL-relevant captaincy suggestions.

First, let’s assess last week’s predictions. A recent feature of the predicted shots model is that predictions are now presented as shot ranges with confidence intervals. It’s easiest to see this graphically. Looking at the plot below, we find predicted shot ranges and actual shots taken for Week 22. For example, Tottenham were 50% likely to shoot between 14 and 21 times, but instead Tottenham took 26 shots.

Since this model uses 50% confidence intervals, 10 out of the 20 teams’ shot totals were expected to fall within the bar regions. At the end of the week 9 out of 20 shot totals actually fell within the predicted ranges, which is very close to 50% and a good sign that this possession-based model can effectively predict football stats.

Moving on to next weekend’s prediction below, we get a sense for how some of the matchups might go. Everton/Swansea look to be neck and neck, with the West Brom/Villa and Arsenal/Chelsea fixtures close as well.

This modeling is all well and good but I suspect a more pressing question on many peoples’ minds is “Who do I captain this week on my fantasy team?” We can extrapolate from this data, move deeper into the realm of speculation, and come up with the following recommendations.

Sergio Aguero. Aguero is certain to start, he’s on form, and City are likely to score goals. What’s not to like? With the potential for rotation in City’s midfield, Aguero is clearly the best captain choice of the Citizens’ attacking players.

Jamie Vardy. Very short on form at the moment, Vardy will likely be overlooked for captaincy or even dropped by many FPL managers. However, Leicester are predicted to attack in numbers as they host Stoke on Saturday, and Vardy could likely bag himself a goal or two. He may also find himself on penalty duty, with Ranieri confirming that Mahrez is being temporarily relieved from spot-kick responsibilities.

Odion Ighalo. Ighalo is another player who is currently short on form with a big chance to redeem himself this weekend. Predictions show Watford could shoot twice as many times as Newcastle. Newcastle have put in impressive performances recently, but Ighalo will hope the Magpies are back to their usual selves.

Also check out my GW23 FPL draft sleeper picks here using Togga’s scoring system.