More than Demographic Change

The first thing we might think is that young people voted more Democratic because they are less white and less Christian than any previous generation, something we've touched on before in this series.

But while that is true, young people within almost every demographic also voted more Democratic than their elders in 2008:



Click to enlarge.

There are two exceptions - African Americans, where the trend is essentially flat, and Jewish voters, where youngsters are slightly more likely to vote Republican (similar to what was seen in 2004). Even White Evangelicals have more Democratic youngsters.

Geography and the Age Gap

The difference between the youngest and oldest generations is greatest where the demographic difference between the generations is greatest:



Click to enlarge.

Data for whites alone show less of a geographic trend, although the numbers are more squirrely because of smaller sample sizes:



Click to enlarge. See note on color.

But They'll Grow More Conservative...

Maybe. But in last forty years or so, that hasn't been the case, according to an analysis of the changes in attitudes towards minorities and privacy issues over a thirty year time period. Indeed, we can directly observe this politically by looking at exit polls over the same time period.

We start with 1972: Nixon won all age brackets, but McGovern pulled in 46% of those aged 18-29, compared with 31-33% for all other age groups. In 2008, this same cohort, now 54-65, voted approximately 50% for Obama. Obviously, those young idealist hippies abandoned their utopian nonsense as they aged, paid taxes, and raised families. Oh wait... they didn't, did they?

Below is the graph for the political behavior of three age cohorts from the 1972 election: 18-29, 30-44, and 45-59. Note that for later elections, age ranges do not perfectly match: for instance, the data for those aged 50-64 in 2008 is used to represent the cohort that was 18-29 in 1972, even though their actual ages ranged from 54-65 in 2008. Older data can be found in the New York Times.



Click to enlarge.

What we see is that people from all age groups have tended to vote more Democratic as the years go by - and the biggest changes have come among the older voters. Those older than 30 in 1972 supported Reagan in 1984 far less than they supported Nixon in 1972. And they supported Bush and McCain even less than that.

Part of this can be attributed to immigration, but only a small part. Looking at the immigration numbers, if we assume that naturalized citizens vote at the same rate as everybody else and all of them vote for Democrats (which is not true), then the 18-29 cohort from 1972 should have become 2 points more Democratic by 2008.

But what about the Reagan generation? Youth from the 1980s have also grown a little more Democratic:



Click to enlarge.

But here's another but: the 2008 election is different, coming on the heels of a disastrous administration that sent people scurrying away from toxic Republican label. Maybe it's more like the 1976 election, and we all know what happened in 1980. Here's what happened to two 1976 cohorts:



Click to enlarge.

Although they swung towards conservatives, by this decade they were pretty close to where they started.

So over the past few decades, different age cohorts have generally become more Democratic, or stayed about the same at the presidential level. That doesn't mean the same thing will happen over the next thirty years, but it does mean that it's simply not true that people become more conservative as they age.

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This diary is the sixteenth in a series taking a close look at the 2008 electorate and exploring three themes: diversity within demographics, progressive feedback loops, and demographic change.

Monday: Last of the Series - Extra Bits and Pieces

Cross posted at Open Left.

Diaries in this series (updated list):

Looking Back

Alternate History

Why Republicans Should Be Really Scared

African-Americans – We Are Not All of Us Alike

East and South Asian Americans – Diverse and Growing

West Asian Americans – Rapid Change

Native Americans – Increasing Participation

Islander Americans – In Need of More Representation

Native Alaskans – An Economic Factor?

Latino Electorate – Increasing Influence

European-Americans – Tribal Politics Persist

“Americans” – You Might Be Surprised

Appalachia – Surprisingly Democratic

Why Republicans Should Be Really, Really Scared

Why Republicans Should Be Really, Really, Really Scared

A Few More Tidbits

Related 2008 electorate diaries:

Maps: Blue America and the Changing Electorate

Maps: Obama and White Evangelicals



Update: So in the second to last diary of this series, it makes the rec list, and today is a day I can't stick around long! Ah well. I will try to read and respond later today or tomorrow. Enjoy the discussion! :)

