At the time of writing, day 4 of this World Cup was definitely a day of upsets. Reigning champions Germany faced a shock 1–0 loss against Mexico, a victory that saw so many Mexico fans celebrate that they caused an earthquake in Mexico City.

Many entered this World Cup thinking that Germany would be a safe bet to win the World Cup, and while they’re still very much in contention, the defeat has put a dent in their credentials for winning the World Cup. The defeat exposed the flaws of the lack of defensive protection that Germany had against a Mexico, a game that saw so much attack from Mexico going down the left flank, usually in times when German right-back Joshua Kimmich was out of position. Not only did Germany prove that they’re flawed after all, but Mexico had always shown how other teams need to play against Germany, a high-press quick counter-attacking system.

Following Germany’s shock defeat, Brazil faced Switzerland, a game of which many expected the Seleção to comfortably beat Switzerland, but unfortunately that wasn’t the case. Following Coutinho’s goal, the Swiss decided to adopt a more physical approach, which included tacking Neymar at every single opportunity, committing 10 fouls on him, the most that any World Cup player has received over the past 20 years.

Yet while the Swiss had a plan to pretty much break the Brazilians legs, Brazil failed to take their chances. According to a statistics website FiveThirtyEight, Brazil entered the tournament as favourites, with a 19% chances of winning the World Cup, however, as of now, Brazil’s chances have slightly dropped to 17%, while Germany’s chances have significantly dropped to only just 9%.

Yet one of the biggest upsets arguably in the World Cup so far is the humiliating 3–0 defeat that Argentina faced against Croatia, a defeat that put Argentina’s chances of reaching the knockout stage in serious doubt. While Argentina haven’t been as good of recent years, they still came into the game as favourites, with a 40% chance of winning in comparison to Croatia’s 29%. And while before the start of the tournament, FiveThirtyEight put Argentina as the main favourites to top their group, the loss has seen them with a slight 33% chance of advancing to the knockout stage. And while the defeat didn’t cause any earthquakes, it certainly has damaged Argentina’s credentials to go all the way.

Big players have turned up