The analogy is, like all historical analogies, imperfect. But it yields a view of the possible paths America could follow as it navigates a similar environment. Over several decades, Britain’s leaders chose to accommodate the rise of the United States, believing that the country would generally align itself with the rules of the international system Britain had established. British leaders tolerated many disagreements with their U.S. counterparts as America’s power grew—including America’s land grab in the Mexican War, and its practice of slavery, which the British outlawed in 1831. But Britain also set clear, consistent boundaries, for example by threatening war over America’s audacious 1845 claims on the Oregon Territory, over which it shared sovereignty with Britain. The two avoided major conflicts and ultimately became staunch allies.

By contrast, while Britain made some friendly overtures to Germany as well, it treated Germany mostly as a rival to be balanced. The scramble for African colonies after the Suez Canal opened in 1869, and the fact that railroads began cutting into the advantages of Britain’s maritime dominance, fueled the rivalry. Both countries rapidly built up their navies in the lead-up to World War I, and ultimately fought two devastating wars.

Some may argue that the history of the 20th century justifies British judgment that Germany was uniquely dangerous—and extrapolate the parallel to contemporary China. But Britain might have been in a much stronger position to handle the rise of fascism following World War I if it had remained aloof from the continental struggle of 1914 to 1918 that devastated British power. And it merits remembering that American international behavior in the 19th century was not so different from that of Germany, irrespective of its domestic political creed.

The British-American alliance was by no means inevitable just because the United States was a like-minded state. Britain had as much in common with Germany politically in the 19th century as it did with the United States. British efforts to cooperate with America predate Britain’s own move towards democracy in the 1860s. Prior to that, both Britain and Germany were monarchies. The British fought two wars against the United States, the Revolutionary War beginning in 1775, and the War of 1812. Far from being preordained, today’s British-American alliance was the result of steady, thoughtful policies and an effort to find common cause.

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China’s military build-up and intimidation of weaker states—in particular its efforts to build on islands claimed by other powers in the South China Sea—mirrors the aggression of a rising Germany at the turn of the 20th century. But what if American leaders adopted toward both China and India the same perspective the 19th-century British held toward the upstart Americans?