by Cian Fahey

The Kansas City Chiefs can't say they didn't have a chance.

Even with Alex Smith throwing the ball 50 times and averaging 4.9 yards per attempt, the Chiefs lost to the New England Patriots by just seven points last week. The game was close until the very end, when Tom Brady completed a pass to Julian Edelman for a game-sealing first down. That play came with 01:08 left in the fourth quarter. It wasn't a straightforward play; Brady threw the ball straight to Tamba Hali, who couldn't make the interception. Hali was playing with a club on his injured hand, which caused him to tip the ball into the path of Edelman at the first-down marker. It was the fifth obvious interception opportunity of the game for the Chiefs, none of which they could catch.

The first came when a pass bounced off of Edelman in the flat. The second came on an ill-advised jump ball from Brady. The third saw Marcus Peters jump Brandon LaFell's route underneath, while the fourth again went to Peters when he defended a fade in the end zone.

Expecting the Chiefs to take advantage of all of those opportunities is unrealistic, but they needed to catch at least one of those passes to have a chance of beating the Patriots. When the Denver Broncos last played the Patriots, in Week 12, they didn't intercept Brady. The quarterback threw for 280 yards and three touchdowns on 42 attempts though. He was forced into that performance because the Broncos were able to shut down LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden in the running game. Despite Brady's display, the Patriots couldn't win that game. They lost in overtime on a 48-yard touchdown run from C.J. Anderson. Both the Patriots and Broncos are significantly different teams since that game, but it's clear that Brady will have to carry the offense if the Patriots are to return to the Super Bowl.

Against the Chiefs last week, Steven Jackson led the Patriots in rushing. He ran the ball just six times for 16 yards. Jackson can barely move at this stage of his career. He is a major downgrade from LeGarrette Blount, who managed just 27 yards on nine carries against the Broncos in the regular season. The Broncos ranked first in defensive DVOA this year, first against the pass and fourth against the run. While they didn't play to expectations against a depleted Steelers offense last week, they should be extremely confident of their ability to force the Patriots into a one-dimensional offense and get pressure on Brady.

Brady can get rid of the ball quickly enough to mask his offensive line's struggles, so the decisive aspect of this game should be how the Broncos are able to cover his receivers. When they weren't failing to take advantage of those interception opportunities last week, the Chiefs were struggling to find a balance between aggressive and passive coverage. Defensive coordinator Bob Sutton didn't appear to understand how to best approach the Patriots passing game. Broncos defensive coordinator Wade Philips should call a much smarter game than Sutton did.

In their previous meeting, Philips was consistent with his play calls. He primarily rushed four defenders after the quarterback and played man coverage with two deep safeties. On 30 of Brady's dropbacks, Philips rushed four defenders after Brady. The quarterback accumulated 204 yards on those dropbacks, but 18 of those plays gained 5 yards or fewer. Brady was consistently forced to perform under pressure in the pocket while throwing into tight windows downfield. He was able to connect with running back Brandon Bolden for a 63-yard touchdown on one of those dropbacks.

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The Patriots' offensive line couldn't contain the Broncos pass rush in one-on-one situations. This was one of their best snaps of the game that day. It wasn't a coincidence that Philips asked his linemen to stunt around each other, delaying the rush in the hopes of confusing the offensive line. Philips shouldn't have to use stunts this weekend. Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, Malik Jackson, Shaquil Barrett, and Shane Ray should be able to consistently win one-on-one matchups. Even with the stunts, Ray was a matter of inches away from getting to Brady before he released the ball. The coverage forced Brady to hold onto the ball until Bolden had a chance to get outside and deep enough for the long pass down the sideline.

Even once Brady had hit him in stride, the running back still had to break a tackle to find his way to the end zone.

Even though the Patriots passing game put up relatively big numbers against the Broncos defense that day, they were forced to find that production under difficult circumstances. The Patriots were reliant on Brady creating big plays by throwing with anticipation to soft spots in coverage much earlier than he would typically want to. Since that game, the Patriots pass protection appears to have slackened off further, which should only encourage Philips to use even more three- and four-man rushes than he did last time around. He only used one three-man rush in the last game, and that play resulted in a sack.

The Patriots were missing Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman in this game; Rob Gronkowski also left the game with a knee issue. Despite their health issues, the Patriots stayed with their aggressive passing game and spread formations. In the above image, the Patriots face a third-and-5 with Brady alone in the shotgun. The Broncos respond with their defenders in press alignment across the board and both safeties deep. It's important to note that Gronkowski is aligned to the left of the offense, the narrower side of the field.

Darian Stewart is the safety to Gronkowski's side of the field. Stewart should understand three things before the ball is snapped. Firstly, the Patriots run an offense that relies on quick throws, and the Broncos' pass rush would pressure Brady if he attempted to hold the ball. Secondly, Gronkowski is lined up against Bradley Roby. Roby is a cornerback, but this is a mismatch for him in a one-on-one situation, especially so if Gronkowski works infield. Thirdly, the slot cornerback to Stewart's side of the field is Chris Harris, Harris is one of the Broncos' starters, a player they trust in coverage more than anyone else.

When the ball is snapped, Stewart has his eyes on Brady. As Brady begins his throwing motion, Stewart commits to moving forward. He is already in stride when the ball leaves Brady's hand. Stewart knows that he's leaving Harris alone with the slot receiver, but because they lined up on the narrower side of the field Harris has the sideline to help him.

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Brady's pass isn't a good one. He forces Gronkowski to slow down and reach up for the ball, exposing him to the incoming hit from Stewart. Stewart is able to easily cut the tight end down short of the first-down marker because of his aggressiveness. Had Stewart hesitated, Gronkowski would have had an easy first down. More significantly, had the Broncos been more aggressive with their coverage, Gronkowski would have been running to wide-open space because the Broncos wouldn't have had a safety in position to play the quick throw.

These types of routes scare defenses into playing off coverage. The Patriots do use pick plays, but more often than not they use natural route combinations to set up those pick plays so they aren't called by officials. They are completely legal plays, but very difficult for defenses to stop. Philips understands that you can't be so passive against the Patriots despite their ability to pick off defenders who are in press coverage. Based on what the Broncos did in their last meeting, Philips instead teaches his safeties to be aggressive on shorter throws from a Cover-2 alignment so they can contain these types of plays without giving up easy yardage underneath.

If you can consistently contain those types of plays, you can force the Patriots to become impatient. That is what happened on this play.

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Late in the third quarter, the Broncos had forced the Patriots offense into a third-and-8. The Broncos disguised their pass rush by sending a linebacker from the second level through the middle of the offensive line. Behind that five-man rush, the Broncos played Cover-1 with their deep safety aligned to the wide side of the field. On that side of the field, Aqib Talib was expected to cover Scott Chandler but was out of position at the snap. Chandler ran a sideline route to which Brady immediately looked, but Talib was able to use his athleticism to recover and stay on top of the route. Talib remained calm before flipping his hips to turn around and locate the ball.



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Much like the Chiefs last week, Talib couldn't take advantage of the gift that Brady had given him. He watched the ball bounce off of his arms as he extended beneath it.

As is always the case when Peyton Manning and Tom Brady face off, the quarterbacks are the biggest names on the field. Brady and Manning will both obviously have huge impacts on the outcome of this game, but it should be a low-scoring affair with both defenses getting the better of their counterparts. The Patriots have the front seven pieces to exploit the Broncos' limited offensive linemen, while the Broncos receivers struggled to catch the ball consistently against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.

The Broncos are undoubtedly a better defense than the Chiefs. Philips' unit has been the best defense in the NFL over the course of the season as a whole. They will pose a much greater threat to Brady than the Chiefs did last week.