Ayton vs. Doncic: Who will be the top prospect from the 2018 NBA Draft? (Photo via ClutchPoints)

NBA Draft Night is one of most exciting evenings of the year for basketball enthusiasts, and last Thursday’s telecast certainly did not disappoint. While there may not have been as many trades and transactions as we once anticipated, the draft itself was chock-full of twists, turns, and — most of all — a lack of consensus at the top. Subsequently, I have chosen to take an analytical approach to evaluating this summer’s top prospects, ultimately determining that Dallas’ acquisition of the Slovenian Sensation (a.k.a. Luka Doncic) was the statistically-certified steal of the night.

For this analysis, we are going to focus on one key metric in particular: WARP.

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**WARP is an acronym for Wins Above Replacement. It is an advanced metric that measures an individual player’s value to their team in comparison to a replacement-level player (that is, one who is below average).**

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ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, who is credited with the invention of the Wins Above Replacement metric, recently analyzed the projected average WARP of top 2018 NBA Draft prospects over their first five seasons in the league.

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According to his projections, the Top 5 NBA Draft prospects (by Avg. WARP) are:

Luka Doncic celebrating Real Madrid’s EuroLeague Championship. (Photo via USA Today)

1) Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks (Selected 3rd Overall)

• 5.8 Projected Wins Above Replacement

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2) Deandre Ayton, Phoenix Suns (Selected 1st Overall)

• 3.2 Projected Wins Above Replacement

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3) Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks (Selected 5th Overall)

• 3.0 Projected Wins Above Replacement

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4) Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies (Selected 4th Overall)

• 2.8 Projected Wins Above Replacement

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5) Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets (Selected 14th Overall)

• 2.7 Projected Wins Above Replacement

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For this particular study, Pelton takes into account many factors, including the player’s position, measurables, collegiate performance, and even high school performance among others.

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Curiously, not only does Luka Doncic rank 1st amongst the 2018 Draft Class, but his 5.8 Projected Wins Above Replacement are the most for any of the 800+ players ever projected by Pelton dating back to 2003.

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The previous high (5.5) was projected for Kentucky’s Anthony Davis back in 2011, who has since successfully blossomed into one of the consensus Top 5 players in the NBA.

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Do you agree with the analytics that Luka Doncic will be the runaway top prospect from the 2018 NBA Draft ?

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