While the Republican tax overhaul would add up to an overall tax cut for individual taxpayers, at least through 2025, millions could still immediately receive a tax increase. For many, particularly those in Democratic areas who earn $200,000 or more, the increase would come from the repeal of the state and local tax deduction, known as SALT.

Average State and Local Tax Deduction

for High-Income Taxpayers Margin of support in 2016 presidential election ◄ MORE REPUBLICAN MORE DEMOCRATIC ► Highly-populated counties in Democratic-leaning states like California and New York tend to claim much higher SALT deductions. Note: Tax returns for filers earning $200,000 or more. Circle size is proportional to the number of tax returns filed in each county in 2015.

Because Democratic voters are more concentrated in high-tax states like New York and California, taxpayers in counties that voted for Hillary Clinton take much larger SALT deductions on average. Upper-class taxpayers are much more likely to claim more than the higher proposed standard deduction (roughly $24,000 for couples in both versions of the bill).

States with the Highest Average SALT Deduction for Households Earning $200,000 or More State Average deduction 2016 margin New York $84,964 Clinton +22% California $64,771 Clinton +30% Connecticut $61,997 Clinton +14% New Jersey $51,259 Clinton +14% Washington, D.C. $51,202 Clinton +87% Minnesota $46,591 Clinton +2% Oregon $44,928 Clinton +11% Massachusetts $42,890 Clinton +27% Vermont $41,641 Clinton +26% Maryland $41,622 Clinton +26% Wisconsin $40,962 Trump +0.8% Rhode Island $39,394 Clinton +16% Maine $38,089 Clinton +3% Hawaii $37,219 Clinton +32% Idaho $36,641 Trump +32% Illinois $36,374 Clinton +17% Nebraska $35,957 Trump +25% Montana $35,823 Trump +20% Arkansas $35,755 Trump +27% Ohio $35,666 Trump +8% Missouri $35,459 Trump +19% Kentucky $35,172 Trump +30% Iowa $32,939 Trump +9% Georgia $32,881 Trump +5% North Carolina $32,574 Trump +4% Delaware $31,950 Clinton +11% Pennsylvania $31,708 Trump +0.7% Virginia $31,643 Clinton +5% West Virginia $31,387 Trump +42% Utah $30,959 Trump +18% Michigan $30,204 Trump +0.2% South Carolina $29,916 Trump +14% Indiana $29,044 Trump +19% Kansas $27,867 Trump +20% Oklahoma $27,798 Trump +36% Colorado $27,644 Clinton +5% Florida $25,974 Trump +1.2% Wyoming $25,952 Trump +46% Arizona $25,855 Trump +4% Mississippi $24,109 Trump +18% New Hampshire $23,495 Clinton +0.4% New Mexico $23,471 Clinton +8% Nevada $23,300 Clinton +2% Louisiana $23,220 Trump +20% North Dakota $21,454 Trump +36% Alabama $21,218 Trump +28% Texas $18,214 Trump +9% Washington $16,392 Clinton +16% South Dakota $15,943 Trump +30% Tennessee $15,886 Trump +26% Alaska $9,131 Trump +15%

There are a handful of Republican counties, particularly in New York and New Jersey, that claim high amounts of SALT deductions. Many of the 13 Republican representatives who voted against the House version of the tax bill cited the SALT changes.

The issue has been less controversial among Republican members in the Senate, because none of the senators representing the top 10 states taking the SALT deduction are Republicans.

Why the Wealthiest Are Hit Hardest

Even as it repeals several itemized deductions, the bill nearly doubles the standard deduction to roughly $12,000 for individuals and $24,000 for couples.

While many lower-income people take the SALT deduction, many would end up better off under the bill because the new standard deduction would be worth more than what they deducted in SALT and other itemizations. Experts predict that the share of taxpayers who itemize their deductions will fall to less than 10 percent from 30 percent currently.

Income group Share taking SALT deduction Average SALT deduction Less than $10,000 3% $3,729 $10,000 – $25,000 7% $3,414 $25,000 – $50,000 19% $4,015 $50,000 – $75,000 38% $5,496 $75,000 – $100,000 54% $7,243 $100,000 – $200,000 76% $11,099 $200,000 or more 94% $42,714 $

Taxpayers earning $200,000 or more, who make up 4.5 percent of all returns, are at the highest risk of a tax increase from the SALT repeal, because many currently deduct much more in state and local taxes than the bill’s new standard deduction.

But not all groups above that income threshold would fare the same. Taxpayers earning from about $500,000 to $1,000,000 are most likely to pay the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), an alternative income tax calculation that ensures high-earners pay a minimum amount of taxes. The AMT does not allow the state and local tax deduction, so those who pay it are likely to be hurt less by the SALT repeal because they are not currently receiving the full benefit of the deduction.

Income vs. Property Taxes

The initial version of the Senate bill repealed all of the SALT deductions — for income, property and other taxes. But Senator Susan Collins of Maine, a critical Republican vote, pushed to retain a property tax deduction of up to $10,000, a provision also included in the House bill.

But the income tax deduction would be repealed in its entirety. There are several states, like Tennessee, Texas and Florida, that have no income tax, so people there do not currently benefit from that deduction unless they pay taxes on income earned elsewhere.

Average Income Tax Deduction for High-Income Taxpayers Margin of support in 2016 presidential election ◄ MORE REPUBLICAN MORE DEMOCRATIC ► Florida taxpayers that take the deduction pay taxes on income earned elsewhere. Note: Tax returns for filers earning $200,000 or more. Circle size is proportional to the number of tax returns filed in each county in 2015.

The property tax deduction is claimed by many more people in places that voted for President Trump, like in Texas and Florida. Those who claim more than $10,000 — the new limit in the bill — are at the highest risk of seeing a tax increase.