Predict-Ability Weekly Breakdown

Week seven is officially in the rearview mirror and with that brings the realization that our fantasy teams are halfway through the regular season. With the average fantasy regular season being either 13 or 14 weeks, week eight marks the start of the second half of the season and with that comes a need for self-evaluation. This is the point in the year where I begin to take a hard look at my fantasy teams to figure out what I need to do to make them into championship contenders. To do this, it is helpful to review our fantasy teams to see if we have that mixture of consistency and upside that’ll allow our teams to be competitive each week and posses the ability to outscore any opponent on any given week. To illustrate the value of having an elite performer, look no further than the week seven wide receivers. The difference in points between the second highest scoring wide receiver last week, Kenny Stills, and the 10th highest scorer, Antonio Brown, was the same difference between Brown and the 49th scoring wide receiver, Tavon Austin. That difference in scoring was ten points. Ten points can easily make or break a given week. Being able to recognize which players possess the ability to have these blow-up weeks allow our fantasy teams to have that explosive ability to beat any opponent.

What is Predict-Ability?

Predict-Ability is a weekly study that will accumulate data as the year progresses to track how consistent players are on a weekly basis in tandem with how often they post performances at the top of their position. Being able to identify players who are more predictable and understanding a players weekly ceiling allows us to make better start/sit decisions and build our fantasy teams to have a mix of consistency and upside. To make better start/sit decisions, it is important to understand the ability of each player to return on a given projection or their likelihood to exceed expectations and perform amongst the elite of their position on any given week.

Read past Predict-Ability articles here.

Quarterbacks

Quarterback Consistency Stand Out

Dak Prescott, DAL: CoV (23.371), Top 3 (33.33%), Top 6 (33.33%), Top 12 (100%), Top 24 (100%)

If you’re looking for consistency in fantasy football, no player has been as consistent this year as Dak Prescott. In every one of his six games played this season, Dak has finished as QB12 or better. Through the entirety of the 2016 season, Dak had nine such finishes. Dak has three straight games with three passing touchdowns, but the most important ability that Dak has for fantasy owners is his rushing. Rich Hribar, of Rotoworld Fantasy, popularized the term Konami Code in relation to fantasy football to illustrate a quarterback’s unique ability to score both as a passer and as a rusher. Dak has fully shown off his Konami Code ability so far this season, scoring three rushing touchdowns in his past four games. Having the ability to produce both as a rusher and passer often allows for quarterbacks to have a high weekly floor, as we see with Dak never falling outside the top 12. However, when a quarterback is also successful as a passer, this ability makes them a threat to be an elite scorer on any given week. This week Dak gets to go up against Washington, who gave up the second highest scoring fantasy performance last week to Carson Wentz.

Quarterback Elite Production Stand Out

Carson Wentz, PHI: CoV (28.001), Top 3 (42.86%), Top 6 (71.43%), Top 12 (71.43%)

One might say that Monday night was the break out performance for Carson Wentz, but that game was a beacon of light to shine upon what has arguably been an MVP caliber season thus far. Currently, the NFL leader in passing touchdowns, Wentz is on pace for just under 40 passing touchdowns which was the leading mark of the 2016 season, set by Aaron Rodgers. Wentz has been on a tear the past three weeks totaling 11 touchdowns in that span. That is a trend that looks to continue in week eight as The Eagles face off against a San Fransisco defense that has given up the second most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

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Running Backs

Running Back Consistency Stand Out

Christian McCaffrey, CAR: CoV (39.59), Top 3 (0%), Top 6 (0%), Top 12 (28.57%), Top 24 (71.43%) The rookie running back who seemed to be the talk of the town amongst the fantasy community this off-season has had a season of mixed reviews. Christian McCaffrey has done little to nothing as a rusher; only one game of double-digit carries and an abysmal yard per carry average of 2.5 yards. However, what McCaffrey has lacked in the rushing game he has more than made up for in the passing game. McCaffrey has produced almost entirely as a receiver from a fantasy perspective with 87.9 of his 98.3 fantasy points coming from his receiving production. Currently, McCaffrey is the league leader in receptions for running backs with 44 and is 4th amongst all players. If McCaffrey continues this rate of receptions he’ll be the first running back since Matt Forte, in 2014, to break 100 receptions in a season. Running Back Elite Production Stand Out Chris Thompson, WAS: CoV (54.73), Top 3 (16.67%), Top 6 (33.33%), Top 12 (50%) After Chris Tompson went into Washington’s week five bye coming off of a game in which he was barely used it seemed as though the first three weeks of the season were an outlier for a running back that is just too small for a consistent workload. However, the first game off of the bye turned out to be the peak in usage for Thompson as he doubled his game-high in carries in the season and racked up 20 total touches. Similar to McCaffrey, Thompson has been a limited producer in the rushing game, but what he has been able to do as a receiver has more than made up for it. Thompson leads all running backs in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns and is currently 6th amongst all running backs in total touchdowns. [the_ad id=”73965″][the_ad id=”63198″] Wide Receivers [the_ad id=”73965″][the_ad id=”63198″] Wide Receiver Consistency Stand Out Dez Bryant, DAL: CoV (37.46), Top 3 (0%), Top 6 (0%), Top 12 (33.3%), Top 24 (66.67%) There was talk all off-season about how difficult of an opening schedule Dez Bryant had against opposing quarterbacks. However, through that extremely tough schedule, Bryant continued to succeed in posting four top 24 performances and being one of the most consistent wide receivers to start the season. Only twelve wide receivers have been able to post top 12 weeks as consistently as Bryant and with the Cowboys schedule easing up for their pass catchers, Bryant is in a great position to build on his early success and finish the season very strong. Wide Receiver Elite Production Stand Out Jarvis Landry, MIA: CoV (31.7), Top 3 (0%), Top 6 (33.3%), Top 12 (50%), Top 24 (83.33%) Heading into the 2017 season, I was in the camp that believed that Jarvis Landry would see his production decrease with Miami looking to build on the success it had found with Jay Ajayi and their rushing game. However, Landry has continued to find success this season doing what he has done his entire career, utilizing his ability after the catch to turn his extremely low 5.4 yards per target into consistent fantasy production. The thing that sets Landry’s recent production apart from the majority of his career is his sudden ability to find the end zone. Landry has scored a touchdown in each of his past three games. The last time that Landry scored in back to back games prior to this stretch was his rookie season in 2014. [the_ad id=”73518″][the_ad id=”74046″] Tight Ends [the_ad id=”73518″][the_ad id=”74046″] Tight End Consistency Stand Out Evan Engram, NYG: CoV (32.34), Top 3 (16.67%), Top 6 (33.3%), Top 12 (66.67%) The rookie tight end that seemed to not really fit the typical mold of a successful NFL tight end has exceeded nearly all expectations so far this season. After the New York Giants lost both Odell Beckham Jr and Brandon Marshall to injury, the search for who would step up in the passing game left few available options. To fill the void, Evan Engram has risen to the occasion. Engram has had back to back weeks, in Beckham and Marshall’s absence, of top four fantasy tight end production. He has become the target leader on the offense totaling 19 targets in the past two games. This builds on a great start to the season in which Engram was already averaging seven targets a game. The Giants are headed into a bye this week which could make it the perfect time to target Engram in trades, especially with the week off allowing New York to build on finding different ways to use Engram Tight End Elite Production Stand Out Jason Witten, DAL: CoV (76.56), Top 3 (33.33%), Top 6 (50%), Top 12 (50%) Jason Witten continues to fly under the radar as an elite fantasy tight end option. Only one tight end, Zach Ertz, has more top 6 fantasy finishes than Witten. The 35-year-old tight end is currently on pace to hit over 80 receptions, which would be his largest total since 2012 when he hit a ridiculously high 110 reception mark. Witten has also already hit his total touchdown mark from the past two seasons of three and is showing no signs of slowing down. This week Witten heads with the Cowboys to Washington where he gets to face a Redskins defense that is allowing the 4th most fantasy points to tight ends. Other Articles You May Like: Start’em Sit’em Week 8

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