THE Tory leadership stakes have just been upended. Gavin Williamson’s elevation to Defence Secretary shows he wants to be a contender – and that many of those around Theresa May think he might be their best hope.

His promotion ­startled Tory MPs and ­ministers.

8 Gavin Williamson's has become the Defence Secretary and some think he is their best hope Credit: PA:Press Association

“A real shocker,” was one of the more printable ­Cabinet reactions to the move. So why did May do it?

One Tory at the heart of government explains it by saying: “One can count on the fingers of two hands the number of people she can trust in politics right now.” Even those who admire Williamson were puzzled by his elevation.

One minister says he can’t understand it, as “the one place where we were beating the odds was the whipping”.

And another influential Tory complains: “We’ve got a minority government, Brexit to get through and the biggest sex scandal in decades about to hit us. We need a good Chief Whip. He has thought of himself, not the party.”

8 Williamson has also been branded selfish for not thinking about the Government but about his self interests Credit: PA:Press Association

When I asked what the Cabinet thought of the move, I was told: “Everyone thinks he’s running.”

Cabinet ministers aren’t alone in this judgment. Those who worked with Williamson in David Cameron’s

Downing Street are also convinced he is on manoeuvres.

One former colleague opines: “Gavin should be the new favourite to be the next Tory Prime Minister.”

Tories have also been struck by how active Williamson — famous for keeping a pet ­tarantula in his office — has been on the rubber-chicken dinner circuit recently, taking the opportunity to speak directly to the activists who will ultimately elect the party’s new leader.

8 Those close to Theresa May think this shows that Williamson is a contender Credit: Rex Features

The most interesting question is why Williamson has decided to get out of Downing Street now. He has a sharp political brain and a good feel for the mood of the parliamentary party. He would have known a reshuffle where he was the only person to enter the Cabinet would put a massive target on his back.

Those who thought they might get the job are upset he did and they didn’t. Those in the junior ranks of the Cabinet are cross he leapfrogged them.

And those considering a leadership bid are irritated that he has left behind his best mate, Julian Smith, to run the Whips’ Office.

One of those who works most closely with Williamson tells me: “I never know what’s going on in Gavin’s head. It is a complex issue.”

8 The most interesting question is why Williamson decided to get out of Downing Street Credit: PA:Press Association

Two explanations are doing the rounds in Tory circles for why Williamson has chosen to leave the Whips’ Office at such a vital time.

The first is he has decided it was time to get out. He has never lost a vote on Government business but with hundreds of amendments put down to the EU Withdrawal Bill, it was getting harder and harder to keep hold of that record. Colleagues have also been struck by how little he wanted to have to do with the sex-pest investigation.

He very much left that to his newly promoted deputy.

Finally, there is the fact you can only put the thumbscrews on rebellious MPs so many times.

8 Some believe this ascension shows that Theresa May does not have as long as we think Credit: Getty - Contributor

Every time you do it, you become a little less effective.

Interestingly, even Downing Street is talking about how some Tory MPs will “welcome a change in approach” from the Whips’ Office.

The more intriguing explanation is that Williamson has decided he needs to start building a public profile for his leadership bid NOW — and there is no time to waste.

This is making ministers and MPs wonder if Williamson has concluded the Prime Minister might not have as long left as some people think.



May must get housing in order

WITH every crisis that hits the Government, the Budget becomes ever more important.

It is the Tories’ best chance to seize back the agenda. But this won’t be simple.

8 Theresa May is not moving on the green belt according to my sources Credit: Getty Images - Getty

The Budget will be delivered against a backdrop of worsening forecasts for the public finances and sluggish growth.

Housing is meant to be the centrepiece of the Budget. But there is currently a standoff between Number 10 and the Treasury over what to do on the issue. The Treasury insists further planning reform is required to ensure enough houses get built where people want to live.

Theresa May is extremely wary of this idea. One Number 10 source tells me “the PM is not moving on the green belt”. Rather than planning reform, Number 10 favours spending more money on building houses.

The Treasury is reluctant to do this because it thinks planning reform is the most important aspect of all this.

8 The resolution for housing is not being made easier with Theresa May and Philip Hammond's strained relationship Credit: Times Newspapers Ltd

It also worries about the financial implications of borrowing more money to build.

Getting a resolution to this isn’t made any easier by the increasingly strained relations between Theresa May and the Chancellor, Philip Hammond. Number 10 and the Treasury need to realise this isn’t an either/or choice.

If the Tories are to reverse the decline in home ownership – now at a 30-year low – before the next election, they need to do BOTH. Some Tories won’t like the idea of the State borrowing to build. Others will oppose building on parts of the green belt.

But if Hammond and May continue to block each other, Jeremy Corbyn will become PM.

Dodds is the real dealer

WHO should be doing the Brexit negotiations? The DUP’s Nigel Dodds.

That’s the answer, at least, from the man who negotiated the Government’s confidence and supply deal with them, new Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson.

8 DUP's Nigel Dodds should be doing the Brexit negotiations Credit: EPA

In a speech to the Hampstead & Kilburn Conservatives, Williamson jokingly said the DUP’s Westminster leader should be made Brexit Secretary, as he really knows how to negotiate.

Williamson recalled how after the election, he told Theresa May he needed three things from her – the best adviser she had on the constitution, her best adviser on Northern Ireland and a flight to Belfast so he could talk with the DUP.

But perhaps the line that raised most eyebrows was when Williamson, who had been promoted that morning, told the room the Tories “cannot and must not tolerate self-promotion”.

Constructively discussing 'no deal' IN a normal political week, the story would be that the Cabinet had discussed its preparations for a “no deal” Brexit. I am told the meeting was “much more constructive” than most Cabinet conversations on the issue. However, the fact the meeting over-ran meant the most contentious part of the discussion – how much is really being spent on “no deal” planning – was conveniently cut short.

Benefit carrot is big sticking point

I UNDERSTAND it is almost certain the Budget will reduce the wait for Universal Credit from six weeks to five.

The debate inside government now is about whether to go further. The Tories should.

It is very hard to justify some of the poorest people in society having to wait five weeks for their first Universal Credit payment.

If the laudable aim is to align the benefit system with the world of work, surely people should get their money at the end of the month. And if the Government keeps the wait at longer than four weeks, they will be handing Labour a stick with which to beat them. They have got to show everyone that Universal

Credit and welfare reform are about saving lives, not just money.

James Forsyth is Political Editor of The Spectator.