Around 70 minutes into Arsenal’s game against Nottingham Forest, the heavens opened, and in more ways than one. As the rain lashed down on north London, a game that for much of its length had maintained a defined if largely predictable pattern broke in thrilling fashion. First Rob Holding headed in Reiss Nelson’s corner. Then Joe Willock smashed home from close range. Then Nelson took a hopeful punt on a cross from Calum Chambers. Then Gabriel Martinelli bundled one in late on.

Five-nil, and an extremely puzzled Sabri Lamouchi, who in his post-match interviews bore the nonplussed look of a man who had spent the whole night closely guarding his wallet, only to look down and realise someone had stolen his trousers.

“Cruel,” was the verdict of the Forest manager. “Five is too much. At one down we were always in the game. We started much better in the second half, then the second and third goals went in, and we gave up a little bit.”

But then, this has been something of a recurring theme for Arsenal this season: befuddled opposition managers sadly shaking their heads at the scoreboard. “The scoreline didn't reflect the performance,” bemoaned Eintracht Frankfurt manager Adi Hutter after a ridiculously open game that ended in an improbable 3-0 Arsenal win. “We’ve defended fantastically, made a mistake and got punished,” Steve Bruce complained after Newcastle’s barrow 1-0 defeat on opening day. “We could have won the game comfortably,” Aston Villa’s Dean Smith lamented after a heartbreaking 3-2 loss on Sunday.

We all think we know Arsenal. They’re the team with the soft underbelly. The team that will always give you a chance. The team that wears its neuroses like a shellsuit. The team that virtually invented football banter. The team with a back four that couldn’t defend a cat flap. And in a way, recent high-profile reverses against Watford and Liverpool have merely reinforced the opinion that most people already had of them: of a club only ever about two misplaced passes away from total disintegration.

Premier League's best prospects Show all 20 1 /20 Premier League's best prospects Premier League's best prospects Emile Smith Rowe (19) - Arsenal The winger made a prolific breakthrough into the first-team last season, scoring three goals in six games, before being ruled out with a groin injury. After spending six months at RB Leipzig last season, he has been promoted to the senior squad on a full-time basis. Getty Premier League's best prospects Colin Odutayo (18) - Aston Villa The skilful Netherlands youth international impressed in the U18s Premier League last season, cutting in off the left-wing scoring 7 goals and adding a further four assists. Getty Premier League's best prospects Lloyd Kelly (20) - Bournemouth Suffered a cruel injury blow soon after joining the Cherries from Bristol for £13m over the summer. The full-back has huge potential and will be hopeful of breaking into the starting eleven quickly. AFC Bournemouth via Getty Images Premier League's best prospects Aaron Connolly (19) - Brighton The young Irish striker had a brilliant season for the U23s, ending the season with 16 goals in 18 appearances. Can hope to make his breakthrough in the Getty Premier League's best prospects Josh Benson (19) - Burnley Joined after ending a two-year scholarship at Arsenal and was included in Burnley's pre-season tour of Portugal. Getty Premier League's best prospects Reece James (19) - Chelsea Starring on loan at Wigan last season, the versatile full-back was named in the Championship team of the season and is pushing for a starting place after Davide Zappacosta's departure. Getty Premier League's best prospects Tyrick Mitchell (19) - Crystal Palace The young full-back was included in the club's pre-season plans and has been compared to Aaron Wan-Bissaka by teammate Andros Townsend. Getty Premier League's best prospects Lewis Gibson (19) - Everton The centre-back joined the Toffees from Newcastle for a fee that could ultimately rise to £6m and has immediately impressed with the club’s youth sides. Everton FC via Getty Images Premier League's best prospects George Hirst (20) - Leicester The England youth international joined Leicester in the summer after one season with the club’s sister side OH Leuven in Belgium and featured in this summer's Toulon Tournament. Getty Premier League's best prospects Ki-Jana Hoever (17) - Liverpool The Dutch centre-back was handed his debut in the FA Cup at just 16 years old and will expect to get more first-team minutes under Jurgen Klopp, who is an outspoken admirer of Virgil van Dijk’s mentee. Liverpool FC via Getty Images Premier League's best prospects Ian Carlo Poveda (19) - Manchester City After spells at Arsenal, Chelsea, Barcelona and Brentford, City snapped up the England youth international, who made his debut in the League Cup win over Burton last season. Manchester City FC via Getty Ima Premier League's best prospects Brandon Williams (18) - Manchester United The highly touted left-back travelled with United’s Champions League squad after an impressive season with the U18s and is set to challenge Luke Shaw in years to come. Getty Premier League's best prospects Matty Longstaff (19) - Newcastle His older brother Sean has stolen the plaudits thus far, but his younger brother is not far behind and was included on the club’s pre-season tour of China. PA Premier League's best prospects Stephen Mallon (20) - Sheffield United The Irishman impressed on loan in Australia last season before appearing in the Toulon Tournament. Getty Premier League's best prospects Adam Idah (18) - Norwich The 18-year-old striker was awarded a new contract in the summer after scoring a goal every 170 minutes for the U23s last season before impressing for Ireland in the Toulon Tournament over the summer. PA Premier League's best prospects Jake Vokins (19) - Southampton The young full-back seems destined to make a push for first-team minutes and can challenge Ryan Bertrand after the Saints opted to sell Matt Targett. Southampton FC via Getty Images Premier League's best prospects Troy Parrott (17) - Tottenham The Irish striker starred during Spurs’ pre-season and has since returned to goalscoring form with the U23s. Mauricio Pochettino is a keen admirer and a debut is not far away. REUTERS Premier League's best prospects Joao Pedro (17) - Watford The Brazilian prodigy has thrilled at Fluminese and will link up with Watford's senior squad in January once he has turned 18. Getty Premier League's best prospects Amadou Diallo (16) - West Ham The prodigious winger is regarded as one of England’s best prospects and has soared through the academy age groups, attracting a wealth of suitors from across Europe. Getty Premier League's best prospects Terence Taylor (18) - Wolves The defensive midfielder excited on the club's pre-season tour, having been called up to Wales' senior squad while still a 17-year-old. Getty

And yet, peer beneath the bonnet and you may be able to glimpse something quite different happening. Players who, for all their imperfections and inexperience, look genuinely invested. A club with a recognisable structure that isn’t just one guy in an oversized coat. Exciting young players getting decent game time. The sharpest marksman in the Premier League. And a happy knack of conjuring goals out of very little, from all over the pitch, winning them games they really have no right to win.

This wasn’t necessarily one of those games. Arsenal were always going to win here, and comfortably too. And, look, I sense your unease at where all this is going, your instinctive distrust of drawing any sort of conclusions at all from a performance against a second-tier side making six changes from a 1-0 win over Barnsley. Even so, there’s a weirdly arresting quality to the way Arsenal occasionally look as though they can score at will, one that even in their vulnerable periods makes them a mercurially dangerous opponent.

Look, I’m just going to come out and say it: I think Arsenal are potentially a lot better than people think they are. More importantly, I think they’re only a couple of tweaks away from being extremely good. Good enough, at least, to establish themselves as the main challenger to the top two in a moment when their closest rivals are in various states of disarray. It’s an extremely fragile case, one that stands in complete contrast to the one I made seven months ago, and every so often Arsenal do their level best to try and argue me out of it. But against the fatalism of their fans, the pessimism of the pundit class and the scepticism of the stats Gestapo, Arsenal just keep scoring.

It’s been 13 games and almost five months since anyone managed to keep them out. And yes, the defence is still a dumpster fire, the midfield a movable feast, the ball retention in their own third a rich farce, the mentality still hopelessly brittle. But equally, this is a young team getting younger, still learning on the job but gaining in belief, developing the sort of muscle memory that in their toughest moments will remind them that no cause is ever lost. And they keep scoring.

Really, is it so hard to imagine the return of Hector Bellerin and Kieran Tierney, the re-emergence of Chambers and Holding, shoring up that listing defence just a little? That’s an entire new back four there, and even if the fundamentals of Emery-ball will always see them giving up a good chunk of chances, it wouldn’t take a huge injection of sanity to lift them beyond the likes of Spurs, Leicester and Manchester United. Throw in the rapidly maturing Willock, the exciting Nelson, the wildly promising Bukayo Saka, the improving Nicolas Pepe, and you have the bones of a genuine resurgence.