Progress Scotland has published the first findings from its inaugural large-scale opinion poll showing that Brexit is the biggest single factor impacting on views towards Scottish independence.

More than 2,000 people took part in the poll conducted for for Progress Scotland by Survation between 15th and 21st of March 2019.



The headline figures amongst undecideds are:



Leaving the EU will be good for the Scottish economy in the long-term

Agree: 23% Disagree: 44%



Brexit makes Scottish independence more likely

Agree: 63% Disagree: 13%

Brexit has changed my view on Scottish independence

Agree: 45% Disagree: 22%

If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, I would be more likely to vote for independence in a future referendum

Agree: 56% Disagree: 15%

If Scotland became an independent country, it should be a full member of the European Union

Agree: 66% Disagree: 16%

I am waiting to see what impact Brexit has on me before deciding how I would vote in another independence referendum

Agree: 49% Disagree: 19%.



The headline figures amongst all respondents:

Brexit/EU membership is now the most important issue determining views on independence vote, up from 22% in 2014 to 43% today



Independent polling expert Mark Diffley, who designed the questions for the Progress Scotland poll said:



“Since June 2016, politics across the UK has been dominated by the issue of Brexit. It is therefore unsurprising that, on the day that the UK had been due to leave the EU, new polling highlights the pivotal role that the issue of EU membership and Brexit is likely to play in any future Scottish independence referendum.

“Progress Scotland’s new poll of more than 2,000 people in Scotland makes for interesting reading in understanding how voters view the relationship between Brexit and independence.

“The importance of the EU as an issue which drives opinion on independence has doubled; 22% of voters put EU membership in the top two or three issues which determined their vote in 2014. Now, that figure is 43%, making it the single most important issue for voters in another referendum.

“The poll provides further evidence of how the issue of the EU might impact on voters who have no firm position on the independence question.

“The poll suggests that this cohort of ‘open-minded’ Scots has both strong views on the EU and is reassessing its views on independence in light of the Brexit debate.



Progress Scotland Managing Director Angus Robertson said:

“These findings illustrate the significant impact that Brexit is having on the views of open-minded people towards Scottish independence. These are just the initial findings from the inaugural large-scale opinion poll for Progress Scotland and more results will follow. This is just the beginning of our work, which over time will allow us to better understand an ever growing number of people in Scotland who are open-minded towards independence.

“Many thanks to the thousands of existing subscribers who are making this important research possible. Further supporters of this research can help fund future polls and focus groups with a small monthly subscription or donation

Q. In the 2014 independence referendum, people decided how to vote for a number of different reasons. Looking back, what were the three most important issues to you when you cast your vote? - Base: Those who voted in 2014 referendum (1656)

Future of the economy: 46%

NHS: 41%

Views on where important decisions should be made: 30%

Jobs and employment: 27%

Tax and public spending: 23%

EU membership: 22%

Defence and security: 20%

Negative views about Westminster parliament: 18%

Schools and education: 15%

Currency issues: 13%

Pensions: 12%

Personal finances: 10%

Social justice: 9%

Oil: 7%

Don’t know: 2%



Q. If another independence referendum were being held now, what would be the three most important issues to you when deciding how to vote? - Base: All respondents (2014)



Brexit/EU membership: 43%

Future of the economy: 42%

NHS: 42%

Jobs and employment: 27%

Tax and public spending: 24%

Views on where important decisions should be made: 23%

Defence and security: 16%

Negative views about Westminster parliament: 15%

Pensions: 12%

Currency issues: 11%

Social justice:8%

Oil: 5%

Don’t know: 2%



Q. Since the independence referendum in 2014, the UK voted to leave the European Union in a referendum in 2016. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?



Base: Those undecided on independence (351)



Leaving the EU will be good for the Scottish economy in the long-term

Agree: 23% / Disagree: 44% / Neither: 22% / Don’t know: 11%



Brexit makes Scottish independence more likely

Agree: 63% / Disagree: 13% / Neither: 20% / Don’t know: 4%



Brexit has changed my view on Scottish independence

Agree: 45% / Disagree: 22% / Neither: 32% / Don’t know: 2%



If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, I would be more likely to vote for independence in a future referendum

Agree: 56% / Disagree: 15% / Neither: 23% / Don’t know: 7%



If Scotland became an independent country, it should be a full member of the European Union

Agree: 66% / Disagree: 16% / Neither: 14% / Don’t know: 6%



I am waiting to see what impact Brexit has on me before deciding how I would vote in another independence referendum

Agree: 49% / Disagree: 19% / Neither: 30% / Don’t know: 2%







Technical note

Total sample size: 2041

Methodology: People aged 16+ living in Scotland interviewed online. Survey designed by Mark Diffley and data collected using the Survation panel in Scotland

Fieldwork dates: 15th - 21st March 2019

Weighting: Data are weighted to the profile of all people on Scotland 16+ - age, sex, region, 2017 general election vote, 2016 EU referendum vote and 2014 independence referendum

Polling Data available here



READ ANALYSIS OF PROGRESS SCOTLAND’S FIRST POLL BY INDEPENDENT ADVISOR MARK DIFFLEY