On Thursday, CNBC contributor James Pethokoukis reported that JPMorgan has revised its GDP forecast to -2 percent annualized growth in the first quarter of 2020, and -3 percent in the second.

The forecast assumes the government will enact a $500 billion fiscal stimulus, and suggests that growth could return to positive in the third quarter if the spread of coronavirus slows.

ADVERTISEMENT

🔥 JPMORGAN: “Revised GDP forecast of -2.0% annualized growth in 1Q, followed by -3.0% growth in 2Q. … forecast assumes a fiscal response of about $500 billion. …. If the spread of virus moderates …. stage could be set for a return to growth in 3Q, when we forecast 2.5%” — James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) March 12, 2020

A recession has traditionally been defined as a period of two or more consecutive quarters of negative annualized GDP growth. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research no longer follows this standard, instead defining a recession as, “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

By either definition, if the JPMorgan forecast holds, the U.S. economy could be declared in recession as soon as July.