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Final COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2016 through results of 2017 JANUARY 9 MONDAY - National Championship Game





this output has two parts: (1) CONFERENCE AVERAGES

(listed top-to-bottom & alphabetically)

(2) teams listed by CONFERENCE

(listed in order within conferences)



The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a

hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%

of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games

that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes

into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This

is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.



In COLLEGE FOOTBALL the W-L records include ALL games, but ONLY

games between the 253 TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE

STRENGTH computations.



To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of

the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home

team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 92 would be

favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 90.

Or a VISITING team with a rating of 89 would be favored by 7 points

over a HOME team having a rating of 79.



NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.

In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for

illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.

Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings

directly over their respective columns.



The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength

are its rank of schedule - (in parentheses) - and its

record versus teams in these rating's CURRENT top 10

and top 30 respectively.



Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually

different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.

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The PREDICTOR , is such that the score is the only thing that matters.

PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS , BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL

and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.

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GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED

and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.

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The RECENT , is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become

more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.

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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS) , GOLDEN_MEAN ,

and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.



Conference Rankings



There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the

"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)

and the WIN50%.

The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)

in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go

away from the middle in either direction, up or down.

This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated

much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The

"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally

no matter where they are relative to the middle.

Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.

4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1

5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1

6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1

7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1

8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1

9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1

10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1

11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1

12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1

13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1

This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".



The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an

infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.





CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%



1 SEC-WEST (A) = 81.22 82.85 ( 1) 7 81.78 ( 1)

2 ACC-ATLANTIC (A) = 80.41 81.43 ( 2) 7 80.50 ( 2)

3 ACC-COASTAL (A) = 77.84 76.87 ( 4) 7 77.44 ( 3)

4 PAC-12(NORTH) (A) = 76.14 76.99 ( 3) 6 76.57 ( 4)

5 BIG 12 (A) = 75.86 76.03 ( 5) 10 76.03 ( 5)

6 BIG TEN-EAST (A) = 74.68 74.81 ( 6) 7 74.60 ( 6)

7 BIG TEN-WEST (A) = 74.29 73.45 ( 9) 7 74.07 ( 7)

8 SEC-EAST (A) = 73.17 74.12 ( 7) 7 73.83 ( 8)

9 PAC-12(SOUTH) (A) = 73.12 73.52 ( 8) 6 73.27 ( 9)

10 AAC WEST (A) = 69.87 69.63 ( 10) 6 69.69 ( 10)

11 MWC-MOUNTAIN (A) = 67.56 67.22 ( 11) 6 67.32 ( 11)

12 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 65.66 65.64 ( 12) 5 65.71 ( 12)

13 AAC EAST (A) = 63.49 64.10 ( 14) 6 63.74 ( 13)

14 MAC-WEST (A) = 63.07 64.34 ( 13) 6 63.60 ( 14)

15 SUN BELT (A) = 59.06 59.12 ( 15) 11 59.13 ( 15)

16 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 57.54 57.97 ( 16) 10 57.78 ( 16)

17 MWC-WEST (A) = 56.64 57.94 ( 17) 6 56.84 ( 18)

18 CONFERENCE USA-WEST (A) = 56.63 57.16 ( 19) 6 56.96 ( 17)

19 CONFERENCE USA-EAST (A) = 55.41 57.79 ( 18) 7 56.18 ( 19)

20 MAC-EAST (A) = 53.85 53.95 ( 20) 6 53.92 ( 20)

21 SOUTHERN (AA)= 52.60 52.22 ( 21) 9 52.46 ( 21)

22 COLONIAL (AA)= 48.85 49.30 ( 22) 12 48.86 ( 22)

23 BIG SKY (AA)= 48.25 48.37 ( 23) 13 48.17 ( 23)

24 BIG SOUTH (AA)= 46.24 45.74 ( 24) 6 46.01 ( 24)

25 OHIO VALLEY (AA)= 42.66 43.01 ( 25) 9 42.82 ( 25)

26 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 40.94 42.18 ( 26) 11 41.35 ( 26)

27 PATRIOT (AA)= 39.09 39.39 ( 27) 7 39.23 ( 27)

28 NORTHEAST (AA)= 38.89 38.48 ( 28) 7 38.69 ( 28)

29 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 36.23 37.50 ( 29) 8 36.95 ( 29)

30 SWAC-WEST (AA)= 31.59 30.13 ( 30) 5 32.14 ( 30)

31 MID-EASTERN (AA)= 26.15 26.78 ( 31) 11 26.39 ( 31)

32 PIONEER (AA)= 24.38 25.81 ( 32) 11 24.74 ( 32)

33 SWAC-EAST (AA)= 20.23 19.78 ( 33) 5 20.00 ( 33)

34 ***UNRATED*** (**)= -91.00 -91.00 ( 34) 1 -91.00 ( 34)





CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%



13 AAC EAST (A) = 63.49 64.10 ( 14) 6 63.74 ( 13)

10 AAC WEST (A) = 69.87 69.63 ( 10) 6 69.69 ( 10)

2 ACC-ATLANTIC (A) = 80.41 81.43 ( 2) 7 80.50 ( 2)

3 ACC-COASTAL (A) = 77.84 76.87 ( 4) 7 77.44 ( 3)

6 BIG TEN-EAST (A) = 74.68 74.81 ( 6) 7 74.60 ( 6)

7 BIG TEN-WEST (A) = 74.29 73.45 ( 9) 7 74.07 ( 7)

5 BIG 12 (A) = 75.86 76.03 ( 5) 10 76.03 ( 5)

19 CONFERENCE USA-EAST (A) = 55.41 57.79 ( 18) 7 56.18 ( 19)

18 CONFERENCE USA-WEST (A) = 56.63 57.16 ( 19) 6 56.96 ( 17)

20 MAC-EAST (A) = 53.85 53.95 ( 20) 6 53.92 ( 20)

14 MAC-WEST (A) = 63.07 64.34 ( 13) 6 63.60 ( 14)

11 MWC-MOUNTAIN (A) = 67.56 67.22 ( 11) 6 67.32 ( 11)

17 MWC-WEST (A) = 56.64 57.94 ( 17) 6 56.84 ( 18)

4 PAC-12(NORTH) (A) = 76.14 76.99 ( 3) 6 76.57 ( 4)

9 PAC-12(SOUTH) (A) = 73.12 73.52 ( 8) 6 73.27 ( 9)

8 SEC-EAST (A) = 73.17 74.12 ( 7) 7 73.83 ( 8)

1 SEC-WEST (A) = 81.22 82.85 ( 1) 7 81.78 ( 1)

15 SUN BELT (A) = 59.06 59.12 ( 15) 11 59.13 ( 15)

12 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 65.66 65.64 ( 12) 5 65.71 ( 12)

23 BIG SKY (AA)= 48.25 48.37 ( 23) 13 48.17 ( 23)

24 BIG SOUTH (AA)= 46.24 45.74 ( 24) 6 46.01 ( 24)

22 COLONIAL (AA)= 48.85 49.30 ( 22) 12 48.86 ( 22)

29 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 36.23 37.50 ( 29) 8 36.95 ( 29)

31 MID-EASTERN (AA)= 26.15 26.78 ( 31) 11 26.39 ( 31)

16 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 57.54 57.97 ( 16) 10 57.78 ( 16)

28 NORTHEAST (AA)= 38.89 38.48 ( 28) 7 38.69 ( 28)

25 OHIO VALLEY (AA)= 42.66 43.01 ( 25) 9 42.82 ( 25)

27 PATRIOT (AA)= 39.09 39.39 ( 27) 7 39.23 ( 27)

32 PIONEER (AA)= 24.38 25.81 ( 32) 11 24.74 ( 32)

21 SOUTHERN (AA)= 52.60 52.22 ( 21) 9 52.46 ( 21)

26 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 40.94 42.18 ( 26) 11 41.35 ( 26)

33 SWAC-EAST (AA)= 20.23 19.78 ( 33) 5 20.00 ( 33)

30 SWAC-WEST (AA)= 31.59 30.13 ( 30) 5 32.14 ( 30)

34 ***UNRATED*** (**)= -91.00 -91.00 ( 34) 1 -91.00 ( 34)

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By Conference