Now back for its sixth season, The Prospect Digest Handbook

has become a mainstay for baseball enthusiasts, minor league aficionados, and championship fantasy general managers. Touted by some of the titans of the fantasy world for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” last season’s Prospect Digest Handbook correctly predicted the meteoric rise of Deivi Garcia, Dylan Cease, Jesus Luzardo, Bryse Wilson, Brusdar Graterol, Chris Paddack, and many more! Pick up your print version hereand your eBook version here!

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Hit Power SB Field Overall 65 50/55 40 50 65

Background: It was talked about for years. And now the time had come. Baltimore was on the precipice of losing the face of their franchise – and arguably the organization’s most important player since Cal Ripken Jr. – at the end of last season. With the club creeping towards historical levels of ineptitude Dan Duquette, the recently fired General Manager, made one final move that would alter the team’s future for several seasons: he decided to send Machado to the Dodgers for five prospects, the most important being Cuban outfielder Yusniel Diaz. Signed by Los Angeles for a hefty $15.5 million in late November 2015, Diaz first popped up on radars as a 17-year-old torching the Cuban National Series competition when he slugged .348/.447/.440 with 13 doubles and three triples to go along with a stellar 33-to-36 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 250 plate appearances. The Dodgers pushed their newly signed prized prospect, who was only 19 at the time, straight up to Rancho Cucamonga for his debut. The 6-foot-1, 195-pound outfielder responded by hitting .272/.333/.418 with eight doubles, seven triples, and eight homeruns. He would also swipe seven bags in 15 total attempts. Diaz would spend the majority of 2017 back in the California League – where he hit .278/.343/.414 in 83 games – before a late season promotion up to Class AA. Last season, the La Habana native put on a Trout-ian type of display at the plate with LA’s Class AA affiliate: he walloped the competition to the tune of .314/.428/.477 with 10 doubles, four triples, and six homeruns. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a hearty 52%. Diaz’s bat cooled considerably following the move to the east coast as he batted a pedestrian .239/.329/.403. Overall, he finished his third professional season with an aggregate .285/.392/.449 triple-slash line, belting out 15 doubles, five triples, and 11 homeruns. He also swiped 12 bags in 25 attempts.

Analysis: Regardless of how the other four prospects the club received in the Machado trade, make no mistake that the organization bet it’s immediate future on Diaz. And it’s exactly the type of gamble a 115-loss club should be making. Diaz has shown glimpses of future stardom during his first two seasons stateside, but things finally came together during his final stint in the Los Angeles organization. And after an ice cold start with his new club, Diaz would slug .271/.355/.449 over his final 30 contests.

Plus hit tool, above-average power and speed (though he’s an atrocious base runner), incredible eye at the plate with strong bat-to-ball skills, and he plays a competent center and right fields. If the power takes another step forward Diaz could be a perennial MVP candidate. With respect to his work in the Texas League last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, only two 21-year-old hitters have posted at least a 150 wRC+ in the Texas League (min. 250 PA): Yusniel Diaz and Mike Moustakas, who finished his 2010 TL campaign with an absurd 191 wRC+. Diaz, by the way, walked nearly twice as often as Moustakas.

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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2. DL Hall, LHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 65 60 65/70 50 65

Background: Fun Fact: When the Orioles selected Hall with the 21st overall selection two years ago, he became the first prep left-hander chosen in the opening round by the organization since Adam Loewen, who was the fourth pick in the 2002 draft. A sturdy 6-foot-2, 195-pound southpaw out of Valdosta High School, Hall spent his sophomore professional season as one of the youngest arms in the South Atlantic League – though his production and poise would belie his age. In 22 appearances with the Delmarva Shorebirds, 20 of them coming via the starts, Hall posted a 100-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 94.1 innings of work.

Analysis: The young lefty owns three legitimate above-average or better offerings. His fastball sat in the 93-to-95 mph range with a peak of 96 mph. His changeup, which is among the best in the minors, is thrown with a deceptively quick arm but comes in between 79- to 81-mph. And his curveball, a mid-70s offering 11-to-5 break, adds a third out pitch to the mix. The Orioles have had a lot difficultly not only developing young arms, but also keeping them healthy as well. If Hall can avoid the injury nexus that plagued Hunter Harvey and Dylan Bundy, he could begin to move quickly. With respect to his production, consider the following:

Enough. Said.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

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Hit Power SB Field Overall 55 55 30 45 60+

Background: One of the more underappreciated prospects – let alone top prospects – in Major League Baseball. Baltimore snagged the young third baseman/shortstop at the backend of the first round in 2015. And since then Mountcastle, who stands a sturdy 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds, has exceeded every expectation. The Florida native handled the Gulf Coast League well before spending a handful of games with Aberdeen during his debut. He would go on to slug .281/.319/.426 as a 19-year-old in the South Atlantic League the following season. And his offensive prowess was on full display during the first of the 2017 season in High Class A as he slugged .314/.343/.542 before spending the second half in the minors’ toughest challenge, Class AA. Last season Mountcastle found himself back with Bowie in the Eastern League. This time, though, the results were more in line with his career numbers: in 102 games with the Baysox, he hit a healthy .297/.341/.464 with 19 doubles, four triples, and 13 homeruns. His production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 21% – the 13th best mark among all qualified hitters.

Analysis: A long-time perennial favorite of mine. Mountcastle does everything – quietly – well. He’s handled aggressive promotions and succeeded against older competition while stumbling just once as a 20-year-old in Class AA. He hits for average and has underrated power; he slugged 48 doubles two years ago. The lone knock is his defense at third base, where he’ll never be confused with Matt Chapman or Brooks Robinson. He may never develop into a full-fledged star, but there are a lot of similar qualities with Seattle Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager. With respect to Mountcastle’s production in the Eastern League last season, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2017, there were three 21-year-old hitters that met the following criteria in the Eastern League (min. 350 PA): a wRC+ between 115 and 125, an Isolated Power between .150 and .180; and a sub-20% walk rate. Those three hitters are Neil Walker, owner of a career 112 wRC+ at the big league level, Lonnie Chisenhall, a league average MLB bat, and Ryan Kalish, who was never able to figure it out.

Seager, who owns a career 113 wRC+, falls into a similar group as Walker and Chisenhall.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

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4. Dean Kremer, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 55 65 45 50 55 55

Background: The second most notable prospect acquired from the Dodgers as part of the Machado trade last season. Los Angeles – somehow – unearthed the promising right-hander in the 14th round out of UNLV in 2016. The lanky right-hander has been a strikeout artist since setting foot on a professional mound: he posted a 35-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 31.2 innings during his debut; he followed that up with a 96-to-34 mark as he moved up to High Class A the following season. And last season Kremer shot up a lot of prospect charts after a phenomenal showing as he split time between High Class A and Class AA. In a combined 25 starts, Kremer whiffed an incredible 178 and walked just 46 en route to tallying a 2.88 ERA. His strikeout percentage last season, 33.3%, ranked second among all MiLB arms with at least 100 innings pitched.

Analysis: Kremer has morphed froma late-round flier, who barely missed bats during his lone season with UNLV, into a veritable strikeout artist. And it’s happened seemingly overnight. Or at least once professional coaching got their hands on him. The 6-foot-3, 180-pound right-hander isn’t afraid to challenge hitters inside with his 90- to 94-mph fastball. But his bread-and-butter offering is a late-breaking, downward-biting curveball that tends to generate a lot of weak contact and awkward swings. His other two secondary offerings – a fringy slider and an average changeup – need further refinement. Finally, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2017, only three 22-year-old pitchers recorded at least a 30% strikeout percentage and a sub-9.0% walk percentage in the California League (min. 70 IP): James McDonald, Ben Lively, and Sam Bragg, who accomplished the feat as a reliever.

A few notes:

Kremer’s K% was significantly higher than the rest of the group, by roughly four percentage points.

McDonald and Lively developed into roughly league average starting pitchers, however briefly.

It’s all going to come down to Kremer’s further development of his changeup or slider. If one of those ticks up a notch, he becomes a legitimate #3-type arm.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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5. Keegan Akin, LHP

FB SL CH Control Overall 65 50/55 55 40/45 55

Background: A reliable innings-eater for his first two years in Western Michigan’s rotation, Akin morphed from a nondescript prospect into an eventual second round selection on the back of his stellar junior campaign. In a career high 17 starts for the Broncos, the hefty lefty posted an impeccable 133-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio en route to finishing with a 1.82 ERA in 109.0 innings of work. Baltimore grabbed Akin with the 54th overall pick three years ago, making him the highest selected Western Michigan player since the Indians took outfielder Harry Shaughnessy with the 50th pick all the way back in 1970. Akin – predictably so – blew away the competition in the New York-Penn League during his debut (29/7 K/BB in 26.0) and held his own as the club aggressively pushed him up to High Class A the following season. Last year the 6-foot, 225-pound southpaw made a career best 25 starts for the Bowie Baysox in the Eastern League, recording 142 strikeouts and 58 walks in 137.2 innings of work.

Analysis: A heady athlete who fields his position well. Akin looks like the second coming of former big leaguer Jarrod Washburn in his early years. Akin, like his fellow left-hander, relies on his fastball the overwhelming majority of the time – something in the neighborhood of 71- to 72%. It’s a lively pitch he throws to all four quadrants. When it’s on it’ll sit 93- to 95 mph and peak at 97. His slider is inconsistent but flashes above-average. And his changeup, a rare offering, is an above-average pitch. In terms of production, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, only four 23-year-old pitchers that posted a strikeout percentage between 24% and 26% in the Eastern League (min. 100 IP): Glen Perkins, Dellin Betances, Anthony Ranuado, and Trevor May.

The interesting trend among the group: Perkins, Betances, and May have had a lot of success at the big league level as relievers. Baltimore won’t be contending for the next four or five years, so Akin should be given every opportunity in the rotation. He’s one of the more underrated prospects in baseball, perhaps peaking as a #3/#4-type arm.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

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Hit Power SB Field Overall 65 50 30 50 55

Background: From a widely recognized Top 100 prospect to “What the Hell Happened?” in a matter of months. Hays set the baseball world chattering after blitzing through High Class A and Class AA before getting a 20-game cameo in just his second professional season. Hays, a third round pick in 2016, looked like an integral piece of the Orioles plan in 2018. And then he tripped and fell off the side of cliff. After opening the year back up in the Eastern League, Hays, who sandwiched a New York-Penn League rehab around an extended DL stint, batted a lowly .242/.271/.432 with 12 doubles, two triples, and 12 homeruns in 66 games. His overall production in Class AA, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 11% below the league average mark.

Analysis: There are essentially two schools of thought surrounding Hays meteoric crash:

The league adjusted to Hays. A Spring Training shoulder strain and a midseason ankle issue, which resulted in the lengthy DL stint, were to blame.

I’m willing to bet on the latter. Even in a lost season, Hays’ offensive toolkit remained largely intact: below-average walk rates, solid bat-to-ball skills, and average-ish power. I’m willing to give Hays a mulligan for the most part considering the severity of both injuries. In terms of ceiling, think: .290/.320/.450 with 15- to 18-homeruns and solid defensively play in either center or right field. One more thing to remember: Despite being a college product, Hays is only entering his age-23 season.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017

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7. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 65 50/55 50/55 50 45 50

Background: For the second consecutive season – and the third time in the last six drafts – the Orioles snagged a high school pitcher with their first pick in the opening round. Rodriguez, the 11th overall, signed for a slightly below-slot deal worth $4.3 million. The 6-foot-5, 220-pound right-hander made nine brief appearances with the organization’s Gulf Coast League affiliate, recording a 20-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 19.0 innings of work.

Analysis: The well-built righty showcases a standard four-pitch mix: an electric, plus-fastball with some arm side movement; a 12-6 curveball, a slider, and a changeup. Both of Rodriguez’s breaking pitches flash above-average but need further refinement as they tend to float on occasion and remain quite raw. His fastball reportedly touched 98 heading into the spring. And his changeup is thrown with a split-finger grip. His breaking pitches seem a bit rawer than I would have expected for an early first round pick.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2021

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8. Hunter Harvey, RHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 65 70 45 55 60

Background: It was the same ol’, same ol for the snake-bitten right-hander in 2018. Harvey, the club’s 2013 first round pick, offered up a tantalizing mix of strikeouts and low walk rates – this time at the most important minor league level – but he had his season cut short by injury. Again. This time is was a wonky shoulder that ended his season after a terrible two-inning start on the first of June. The former 22nd overall pick finished his sixth professional season with a 30-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 32.1 innings of work. For his career, he’s averaging 11.1 strikeouts and just 3.1 walks per nine innings.

Analysis: So it wasn’t just the shoulder injury in 2018. Harvey’s problematic elbow flared up during his rehabilitation work in late August. Prior to the injury – meaning: early in the season – Harvey’s stuff still looked impressive, which is a miracle given the variety and severity of arm/shoulder/elbow issues he’s sustained over his career. His fastball was sitting 94, 95 mph and his curveball was an absolute 12-6 hammer. The only question that remains is whether Harvey’s body will cooperate.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: High to Incredibly High

MLB ETA: ?

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9. Zac Lowther, LHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 55 50 50 55 45

Background: The hefty lefty – and local boy from my part of Ohio – continued to confound low level minor league hitters for the second consecutive season. A second round product out of Xavier University in Cincinnati, Ohio, Lowther was nearly unhittable during his debut in the New York-Penn League two years ago, posting a barely-there 1.66 ERA and a 75-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 54.1 innings. And he continued that trend as the organization bumped him up to the South Atlantic League and eventually into the Carolina League last season. The 6-foot-2, 235-pound southpaw finished his sophomore campaign with an aggregate 151 strikeouts, just 35 free passes, and a stellar 2.18 ERA. Among all minor league arms with at least 100 innings pitched last season, Lowther ranked ninth in strikeout percentage (31.0%) and eighth in strikeout-to-walk percentage (23.8%).

Analysis: The numbers – especially the strikeout percentages – are a bit misleading because the big lefty is far from a traditional power pitcher. Instead, Lowther commands three average or better offerings reasonably well. And he’s willing to vary the arm angle/release point on his fastball as well. His fastball is an above-average offering with deceptive quickness, especially in on hitters’ hands. And both his curveball and changeup are average big league offerings. He’s typically been very fastball heavy, so it’ll be interesting to see how he adjusts to more advanced hitters as he moves up the minor league ladder. In terms of production in the Carolina League, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, only five 22-year-old pitchers have posted a strikeout percentage between 26% and 28% with a walk percentage between 6% and 8% in the Carolina League (min. 75 IP): Scott Lewis, David Hernandez, C.C. Lee, Barret Loux, and Cody Martin.

Lowther, as I stated in last year’s Handbook, is a safe low ceiling/low risk prospect that should/has moved quickly. He has the makings of a backend starting pitcher.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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10. Ryan McKenna, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50/55 40/45 40 50 45

Background: Fun Fact Part I: Since 2006, there have been 780 instances in which a player received at least 300 plate appearances in a season in the Carolina League. Fun Fact Part II: Of those 780 instances, only 22 of them resulted in a Weighted Runs Created Plus of at least 150 – or roughly 2.8%. Fun Fact Part III: Of those aforementioned 22 instances, only two of them were done by players under the age of 22 – Eric Hosmer, who is just one season into his eight-year, $144 million deal with the Padres, and Ryan McKenna. Fun Fact Part IV: Ryan McKenna, a quiet fourth round pick out of St. Thomas Aquinas High School in 2015, owns the single greatest offensive season in the Carolina League since 2006. Needless to say, McKenna’s absurd performance is one for the record books. Fresh off of a solid, though far from inspiring showing in the South Atlantic League, McKenna morphed into the second coming of Babe Ruth for 67 games; he beat-and-battered the opposition to the tune of .377/.467/.556 with 18 doubles, two triples, and eight homeruns. He also swiped five bags in 11 attempts. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark 92%, a whopper of a total. Baltimore bumped McKenna – and his scorching bat – up to the Eastern League in late June. And, of course, McKenna’s production came crashing back to earth. The then-21-year-old center fielder batted a mediocre .239/.341/.338 with just eight doubles, two triples, and three homeruns. McKenna would finish his breakout campaign with an aggregate .315/.410/.457 line with 26 doubles, four triples, and a career best 11 dingers.

Analysis: McKenna barely earned a mention among prospect lists last season – including the 2018 Prospect Digest Handbook where he was listed in the Keep An Eye On section. Fast forward a year and the former fourth rounder has made one of the bigger jumps. In short, everything went well for McKenna – his patience at the plate jumped from average to elite; he made significant strides in cutting down his strikeout rate; and his defensive showing jumped a little bit as well. And perhaps even the most encouraging sign was his skill set didn’t completely erode as he faced off against the minors’ toughest challenge in Class AA. McKenna looks like a tweener right now: if the power takes another small step forward he could be a solid everyday center fielder; if not, he should get more than enough opportunities to prove himself as a capable fourth outfielder.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.