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However, there are months until the election, expected in October, and the survey highlights two other issues: Bozinoff said the Conservatives are well within striking distance of a majority, but also that Liberal and NDP voters are especially open to the idea of a coalition government.

“The Tory vote is way better distributed than the Liberal vote,” Bozinoff said. “The Tories are within (reach of) a majority.”

Support in Ontario, where the Liberals need to gain seats to come anywhere close to forming government, is fairly evenly split: 33 per cent support the Liberals, and 31 per cent each for the Conservatives and the NDP.

The Tories are within a majority

“These numbers would put the Liberals in great difficulty in Ontario,” Bozinoff said. The Liberals’ rising fortunes in Quebec — 34 per cent support to 24 per cent for the NDP and 23 per cent for the Conservatives — may look promising; however, he cautioned that the electorate is mercurial.

“In Quebec, the Liberals are up this month, but that could disappear tomorrow,” Bozinoff said. “The Trudeau name is a two-edged sword” in the province.

What that split support could add up to is another Conservative majority.

“If the NDP and Liberals remain strong in splitting the progressive vote, this is going to be like (former prime minister Jean) Chrétien in reverse,” Bozinoff said. Chrétien won his majorities in the 1990s when right-leaning votes were split between the Progressive Conservatives and the Reform Party.