Ko-Yao dilemma dividing Taipei DPP

According to a recent TVBS poll, independent incumbent Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) is leading the Taipei mayoral race with 40%, while DPP candidate Pasuya Yao (姚文智) is a distant third with 11% and has net favorability of minus 32. My own impression from casually following the news is also that Yao does not have traction. Assuming current trends continue, Ko’s commanding lead over Yao will likely encourage more greens to abandon Yao to vote for Ko, and push down-ballot green candidates to ally or at least maintain friendly relations with Ko with an eye towards both this election and Ko’s next term.

Provided that the DPP’s minimum objective for Yao’s candidacy is to support down-ballot candidates worried that party voters disillusioned with Ko would otherwise stay home, a Ko win is still an acceptable result for the party: the other candidates could still absorb both Ko and Yao votes. Yao, however, has publicly claimed that this election is a matter of political life and death for him: He vowed in April to “leave politics forever” if he finished third, and upped the ante today by stating he would leave politics if he lost at all. So what’s in his own interest is to go down fighting and prevent the green vote from consolidating around Ko. And as the party’s nominee for the capital city, he does have a legitimate claim to the party’s support.

This week, this conflict between the interests of the party and its candidate has broken out into the open and raised the possibility that DPP down-ballot candidates and political appointees will be forced to make a choice between Ko voters and Yao voters.

On a television program a couple days ago, Yao’s campaign spokesman Hung Li-chi (洪立齊) called for DPP members whose loyalty to Yao over independent incumbent Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) is unclear–including popular DPP city councilor Kao Chia-yu (高嘉瑜)–to either leave the party or be expelled from it. Yao has given the impression this statement was unplanned but has stood by it nevertheless, saying his spokesman represents the campaign. Meanwhile, the DPP has withdrawn its endorsement of a neighborhood warden who has endorsed Ko, leading the warden to tearfully ask if it is wrong to support someone who gets things done.

After hearing Hung’s remarks, Kao said she was confident Yao would “be a hero and save the beauty”; when Yao instead affirmed Hung, Kao wrote that she would reflect on how to support Yao, but also challenged him to resign from the legislature for the sake of his campaign. Apple Daily (which has a good relationship with Kao) launched a Facebook Poll asking, should Kao Chia-yu leave the DPP, or should Pasuya Yao resign from the legislature? As of 7 pm Taiwan time on August 9, the readership overwhelmingly stood with Kao:

Kao should leave the party: 8%

Yao should resign: 92%

DPP headquarters appears to be triangulating. Deputy secretary-general Hsu Chia-ching (徐佳青) announced a hard line, stating the party will expel any DPP member who stumps for Ko after Aug. 31. However, secretary-general Hung Yao-fu (洪耀福) has opened a significant loophole by clarifying that while campaigning for Ko is a party discipline violation, it would be “very difficult” to classify Ko campaigning for or endorsing a DPP candidate as a party discipline violation. If this line holds we can expect to see Ko on the candidates’ posters and stages but not vice versa, which suits Ko’s preference for a minimalist campaign anyway. Hung has also informally reprimanded the Yao campaign, saying it should be uniting supporters instead of manufacturing conflict.

Down-ballot candidates aren’t the only DPPers under pressure. DPP members within the Taipei City Government include Taipei Deputy Mayor Chen Chin-jun (陳景峻)–an Executive Yuan secretary-general under Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁)–and Department of Civil Affairs Commissioner Lan Shih-tsung (藍世聰), both of whom have publicly endorsed Ko and look ready to stand by him. Chen Chin-jun has pointed out that Hau Lung-bin (好龍斌) served as environmental minister under a DPP administration and raised concerns that forbidding DPPers from working for Ko would set a double standard.

A third divide this controversy could exacerbate is between the Hsieh and Su factions. Pasuya Yao is a member of the Hsieh faction, and New Taipei’s mayoral candidate is Hsieh’s old rival Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌). After the Yao-Kao dispute flared, a Hsieh faction member complained to UDN on background that the DPP is fully supporting Su but has “released Yao into the wilderness” (放生). Sour grapes aside, the accusation the DPP’s support for Yao has been less than strong, and to some extent cynical, is a reasonable one.

I don’t think Yao’s campaign can be saved. He’s represented a safe green district for a decade, which isn’t great preparation for the intensity of a mayoral race like this. He has fessed up to avoiding publicizing his campaign events, complaining the media asks him “political questions that take the focus off of policy”. If the media did focus on his policies like he wanted, they’d find some lemons.

By vowing to retire unless he wins, however, Yao has burned his ships behind himself. And repairing the DPP and its partisans’ relationship with Ko likely isn’t something that can happen in such a short time frame anyway. It’s a real dilemma. The most urgent task appears to be simply stabilizing the city party chapter’s campaign and trying to prevent this media cycle from perpetuating into the fall.