Politics Extra is a weekly column looking inside Greater Cincinnati and Ohio politics (Scroll to the bottom to read "Micro-scoops & more")

In the wake of John Cranley changing campaign managers earlier this month, followers of Politics Extra continue to ask if the Cincinnati mayor is really in jeopardy of not being re-elected.

Yes.

The consensus among political insiders is Cranley's struggles can be attributed to the fact he doesn't have a natural base of voters and the issues in this race have not been defined yet.

"It's kind of a chicken-and-egg situation," said University of Cincinnati poli sci prof David Niven, one of PX's go-to analysts. "If he had one, the other would be a natural. If you had an absolutely clear base, then you would speak to their concerns on the issues and win their support."

This is a big reason why 2017 looks nothing like 2013 for Cranley, who cruised past Roxanne Qualls. Let's a take closer look at the differences between the races:

Then ...

• Four years ago, Cranley wanted to kill the streetcar project. Qualls wanted to build it and had plans to extend the route. It was a polarizing issue. Cincinnati may never again see a more divisive issue. Voters knew where both candidates stood. "His campaign was excellent about the contrast and making the race about the subjects he wanted it be about," Niven said.

• Cranley's anti-streetcar stance played to two bases – African-Americans and Republicans. Both voting groups generally loathe the streetcar for various reasons, including thinking it's a waste of money and that it siphons resources from fixing the city's woeful public transportation system.

And now ...

• The streetcar is running. There are no more questions about do-or-die. Game over. The citizenry is fatigued about streetcar talk, no matter which side of the tracks you stand on. That was evident ahead of the primary. Cranley ran an ad saying City Councilwoman and mayoral candidate Yvette Simpson favored the streetcar over public safety. Did anyone even see it? Cranley garnered all of 34.5 percent of the vote, 11 points behind Simpson.

• Simpson has the African-American vote locked down. As an African-American, she has made securing that voting base a priority. Cranley still has strong supporters among the base, but some black leaders who were behind him in 2013 have shifted over to Simpson. African-Americans typically make up a little more than one-third of the electorate, according to PX research.

• In January, Cranley decided to declare Cincinnati a "sanctuary city" for undocumented immigrants. He is a Democrat and Catholic, and protecting immigrants' rights is a big deal to both groups. Politically, though, it was a big mistake. It really upset Cranley's Republican base, which in turn didn't show up at the polls for him on primary day. Hamilton County GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou has said Republicans will be there for Cranley on Nov. 7. But it won't be enough to push Cranley to victory. Republicans typically make up about a quarter of the electorate.

• We live in a much different political world. Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders flipped that world upside down last year, leaving moderate and establishment politicos like Cranley sitting at the unpopular kids' table in the lunchroom. Simpson is a progressive Democrat and an outsider in terms of having grown up in poverty and not coming up in the political in-crowd. "The energy is absolutely on the fringes and not in the middle – and that doesn't help him," Niven said. "We're not in a more-of-the-same moment politically, even if you're doing a reasonable job."

The race likely will start heating back up late next month. As PX said last week, Cranley's overall campaign strategy has shifted from a heavy focus on advertising to boots on the ground. Can Cranley's people make enough calls, knock on enough doors and convince enough people to re-elect him?

"There’s absolutely time and there’s absolutely a path," Niven said. "But he has to figure out what it is. He needs to dedicate the months remaining to absolutely defining what the race is about, and taking it the way he took the 2013 election."

What those defining issues are, well, take a guess. It's going to be a long, hot summer for Cranley and those dozen or so new campaign staffers he recently hired.

MICRO-SCOOPS & MORE

• The Hamilton County GOP has decided not to endorse in the governor's race ahead of next year's primary. Barring no one drops out, the Republicans will have at least four gubernatorial candidates in the primary for the first time since 1990. The last time the GOP had a gubernatorial primary was 2006, when Cincinnati's Ken Blackwell defeated Jim Petro. Hamilton County Republicans did make a pre-primary endorsement that year, backing the hometown guy.

• Cranley, along with Democratic Toledo Mayor Paula Hicks-Hudson, endorsed the drug-relief statewide ballot initiative, which you undoubtedly have heard a lot about in ads. We'll have more on this in the months to come.

• Mike Odioso and Debe Terhar have agreed to co-chair Republican gov candidate Mary Taylor's campaign in Southwest Ohio. Odioso, a social studies teacher at St. Xavier High School, chaired Trump's campaign in Hamilton County. Terhar, of Green Township, is former president of the state school board.

• Rocky Boiman recently agreed to a three-year contract extension with 700 WLW, keeping the former NFL linebacker and Green Township trustee on the 50,000-watt mother flamethrower through 2020. Boiman talks politics and sports (and occasionally heavy metal) on his weeknight show from 9 to midnight.

• Former long-time Enquirer political reporter Howard Wilkinson launched a new feature column Saturday on WVXU.org called "Tales from the Trail: Stories from a Lifetime of Covering Politics." Each week, Howard will tell behind-the-scenes stories from his 43 years covering politics. He's covered 16 presidential conventions and every Ohio governor's race since 1974. He's been with Cincinnati's NPR affiliate since retiring from The Enquirer in 2012.

• Economist Jeff Capell, chairman of the recently formed No More Stadium Taxes group, has filed to run for Blue Ash City Council against long-time Ward 4 incumbent Robert Buckman. Capell, a first-time candidate, has built a name for himself on the local political scene by being a part of anti-tax group COAST. He stepped down from the COAST board last month to focus on the anti-stadium tax group, which is fighting to keep FC Cincinnati from receiving public money for a new soccer playpen.

• Program alert: Look for an op-ed on Cincinnati.com Monday from Human Rights Campaign board member Steve Newsome responding to the criticism openly gay Republican council candidate Seth Maney aimed at openly gay Democratic City Councilman Chris Seelbach in The Enquirer this week.

• You will start to see more of PX throughout the week, offering news and analysis on local, state and Washington politics. Stay tuned.

• PX is taking next week off and will return to Cincinnati.com and The Enquirer the last weekend of July.

Follow Enquirer political columnist Jason Williams on Twitter @jwilliamscincy. Send tips, questions and comments to jwilliams@enquirer.com.