The halving is coming and its garnering some buzz. CoinTelegraph posted an article today at https://cointelegraph.com/news/search-volume-for-bitcoin-halving-outflanks-previous-all-time-high about halving searches being at an all time high.

There seems to be an expectation that the halving will give a boost to bitcoin price. I'm cautious.

At times, I believe the implied thought process is that the halving cuts supply, thus price increases. Simple, Econ 101. The truth is that the supply of bitcoin is not cut. The emission rate of bitcoin is cut. The supply of bitcoin was coded in by Satoshi in 2009 and does not change. The only thing that "cuts" the supply is people losing their private keys (which is a real thing). To be fair, the CoinTelegraph article was careful to not say the supply is diminished, but that the "rewards for miners" or the "issuance rate" is diminished.

There seems to be an expectation that the halving will give a boost to bitcoin price. I'm cautious.

Even the term halving is debated. Is it halving or halvening? A quick search shows arguments like this:

"It's halving because "halvening" is not a word. If you cut something in half, you halve it, you don't halven it." True enough.

Or, "It's 'halvening' because it's referring to both the cutting in half of bitcoin emission and to the happening itself. It's a portmanteau of 'halve' and 'happening.'" Fair enough.

To my ear, the very invention of "halvening" implies that is is gonna be big! It's gonna be huge! It's gonna be a happening! And, underlying that...the price is going to the moon!

I remember Y2K. It was gonna be big! Huge! A happening! Quite of bit of money, who know's how much?, was spent by organizations to become "Y2K compliant." Terrible things were supposed to happen like your life's savings in your bank account zeroing out, planes were to drop out of the sky because their nav systems bonked out, and your digital watch would say it's January 1, 1900. Midnight came on New Year's Eve, 1999. The clock changed. Nothing happened.

I fear that the countdown to the halving block might come, see https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/ , and the halving happen. Then, everyone might look at their favorite price-checker app, and...

What if nothing much happens?

It's likely better to temper expectations and be pleasantly surprised, than too expect much and be unpleasantly surprised.

There seems to be an expectation that the halving will give a boost to bitcoin price. I'm cautious.

But, I sure hope I'm wrong!

:)