Divisions have emerged within Catalonia’s pro-sovereignty movement after a minister in the regional government was sacked for suggesting that this autumn’s independence referendum would probably not go ahead because of fierce opposition from the Spanish government.

A binding vote on 1 October was announced last month by the Catalan president, Carles Puigdemont, with voters to be asked: “Do you want Catalonia to be an independent country in the form of a republic?”

The conservative government of Spain’s prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, has vowed to use all the means at its disposal to stop the referendum from taking place, arguing that it would be a clear violation of the country’s constitution.

“To all Catalans, to all Spaniards, I want to tell you to maintain confidence in the future as authoritarian delusions ... will never defeat the serenity and harmony of our democratic state,” he said on Wednesday.

Splits in the movement emerged when Jordi Baiget, the minister for business and knowledge, was sacked by Puigdemont on Monday after deviating from the government line by telling an interviewer: “The [Spanish] state is so strong that we probably won’t be able to hold the referendum.”

The move was condemned by senior members of the Catalan independence movement – including some of those who have been punished by the courts for their part in the symbolic independence referendum held three years ago.

The former Catalan vice-president Joana Ortega, who was banned from holding public office for 21 months for helping to facilitate the vote on 9 November 2014, tweeted: “Those of us who put our necks on the line wanted everyone to be able to have a say. Including @jordibaiget … ”

Francesc Homs, a former spokesman for the Catalan government who was barred from office for 13 months over the same referendum also criticised the move, tweeting: “Decisions such as this don’t contribute to the project or make it better – just the opposite.”

Catalan government sources described Baiget as a valued member of the administration but said the government was absolutely committed to holding the referendum and respecting the result regardless of which side won.

“The president wants to have the utmost confidence in all the members of his government,” said one. “When there’s a loss of confidence, there are decisions that have to be made … To be part of this government, you have to agree with what this government’s doing. If not, there’s no point.”

The unrest comes as the regional government sketched out its legal plans for the referendum. On Tuesday it announced that Catalonia’s independence would be declared immediately in the event of a victory for the yes campaign.

Spain’s deputy prime minister flatly dismissed suggestions that Catalonia could declare independence within 48 hours of the referendum result.

“The [Catalan] government can spend 30 days explaining the referendum law or judicial transience and it can say that it can declare independence in 48 hours,” said Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría on Tuesday. “But one thing is clear: the [Spanish] state has shown that 24 hours is enough to appeal against these laws and get them suspended.”

In an interview with the Guardian, Carme Forcadell, the speaker of the Catalan parliament, stressed that the October vote would be legally binding.

“If the result is yes, there will be negotiations with the Spanish state, as would be normal, about the separation of the powers,” she said.

“The negotiations will be about the separation. This is not the time to negotiate more powers. That may have been the case in the past, but that moment has passed. The intention is to implement the result.”



She added: “If there was a no vote, it would be respected and there would have to be fresh elections in Catalonia and the result will depend on the state of society at the time.”

Forcadell also insisted that Catalonia would gain international recognition as a state and would not be left in the diplomatic wilderness as some countries – such as Somaliland – have been after secessions.

“It’s always said there will be no recognition, but there have been secessions such as Slovenia that ended up inside the European Union,” she said.

“If a majority express their will democratically, it cannot just be ignored … In the past the EU has adapted to positions. There is no legal precedent that suggests the EU should ban Catalonia from being a member.”

Forcadell predicted the EU would not want to disbar Catalonia from the single market, pointing out most Spanish goods reach Europe through Catalonia: “Pragmatism will win. Spain will know it has to negotiate. This is a political conflict, and Spain is trying to solve the problem through the courts.”

Although Puigdemont, Forcadell and others insist the wealthy north-eastern region has a political, economic and cultural right to self-determination, the response from Madrid has been unequivocal.



A survey last weekend for the Barcelona-based newspaper La Vanguardia showed that 42.5% of those polled favoured independence to 37.6 who opposed it.



But hidden in the numbers is a good deal of scepticism. Only 54% said they would vote in the unilateral referendum and just 12% think it will eventually lead to separation. However, a large majority, 62%, believe the Spanish government should allow the referendum in the same way that the UK government allowed the Scottish independence vote in 2014.

More than 80% of participants opted for independence in the symbolic poll three years ago, although only 2.3 million of Catalonia’s 5.4 million eligible voters took part.





