Democratic Progressive party candidate Tsai Ing-wen looks certain to win presidency and reassess what had been a cosier relationship with China

A former law professor with a doctorate from the London School of Economics is set to be elected Taiwan’s first female president as the self-ruled island goes to the polls amid mounting concern over its flagging economy and closeness to authoritarian China.

Democratic Progressive party (DPP) candidate Tsai Ing-wen looks certain to defeat Eric Chu, her opponent from the Nationalist (Kuomintang or KMT) party, which has ruled Taiwan since 2008, on Saturday.

Taiwan elections: the British educated scholar soon to be the most powerful woman in the Chinese-speaking world Read more

Ma Ying-jeou, the outgoing KMT president, has faced growing criticism at how the unprecedented eight year rapprochement with Beijing he engineered has failed to deliver economic benefits for Taiwan’s 23m citizens.

“Unless something extraordinary happens… I would be mightily surprised if she was not elected,” said J Michael Cole, a senior fellow at the University of Nottingham’s China Policy Institute, pointing to voters’ concerns over a shopping list of domestic issues including job opportunities, a growing wealth gap and access to education.

Nathan Batto, a Taipei-based political scientist, said there was excitement in Taiwan – which China still considers part of its territory but has been ruled independently since 1949 – at the prospect of electing its first female commander-in-chief.

“It is a source of quite a bit of pride, I think, that she will be the first female president and – unlike president Park [Geun-hye] in Korea or prime minister [Indira] Gandhi in India or Yingluck [Shinawatra] in Thailand – Tsai Ing-wen is not a family politician,” he said. “She has done this on her own. It is not like there is a power behind the throne.”



Experts say Tsai’s expected triumph is largely the result of disillusionment with the KMT’s stewardship of the economy, which grew just 1% last year despite Ma’s promises that Taiwan’s ever closer ties to Beijing would prove an economic boon.



“The rich have become very rich and the middle class has really not benefited,” said Gerrit van der Wees, the editor of the Taiwan Communiqué political journal.



With China’s economy now slowing “close ties with China purely on economic terms is not flying very much as an argument these days”, he added.



Cole said Tsai’s double-digit lead in the polls was also a reflection of how the KMT had lost touch with younger voters who now saw its leaders as distant and outdated.

“The KMT has lost its footing. It has been really bizarre in recent weeks and months. You listen to what they are saying on TV, you watch their commercials and we are all scratching our heads [thinking]: ‘Who are you talking to?’

“Often people comment that their message would have seemed current 30 years ago,” Cole added. “They seem to have missed the boat on the generational change that we have seen in Taiwan on anything from LGBT rights to empowering civil society, NGOS [and] being more worldly rather than focusing solely on China.”

Tsai – who supporters know as ‘Little Ing’ – has sought to capitalise on the KMT’s image as a relic of the past.

“Give rational politics a chance! Give Tsai Ing-wen a chance! Let’s create a new politics in Taiwan!” the former law professor told crowds at one of her final campaign rallies this week.



Van der Wees said young voters were concerned that the outgoing president had been “too chummy with a still very repressive and undemocratic China” and had taken Taiwan “too fast, too far in China’s direction.”



“They want to have a more positive relationship with China... but they don’t want to be controlled in any way by China and they don’t want their future to be controlled by China,” he said. “That is a pretty fundamental point that people are making [and] this is the direction for I think a pretty significant time to come because it has been prompted by the younger generation.”

The victory of independence-leaning Tsai will not please Chinese president Xi Jinping who took part in a historic summit with Taiwan’s departing president last November, telling him: “Nothing can separate us.”

“[Under Tsai] communication between mainland China and Taiwan won’t be as good as it is now,” said Li Jiaquan, a professor at Beijing’s Institute of Taiwan Studies.

Li described Tsai as a “flexible” independence supporter rather than a “radical” one. “But the flexible Taiwan independence movement is still the Taiwan independence movement, which can be even more deceptive and dangerous,” he added.

The KMT has tried to derail Tsai’s chances on Saturday by stoking voters’ fears of conflict with China.

“If [you] don’t vote for the Nationalists, the future is really uncertain,” Ma Ying-jeou said this week, according to Reuters. “Our policy is aiming for peace and stability. We can ensure everyone that there won’t be a war across the Strait.”

But experts say that while Tsai, a former law professor and technocrat, will seek to halt or even reverse Taiwan’s drift towards China, she is unlikely to make any dramatic moves such asserting the island’s independence.

“She is not going to rock the boat,” said van der Wees. “She is going to move things forwards in a positive fashion.”

Batto, who runs the Frozen Garlic blog about Taiwanese politics said Tsai had shown extreme caution when talking about cross-straits relations and China during her campaign.

“I’ve gone out and listened to her many, many times on the stump when you would expect there to be a little bit less caution. But every speech she makes you hear the wordings are very careful,” he said.

“She is very conscious of every word – especially when she is talking about China. I think she has been very careful to think how this is going to affect her in government when she makes her statements. She is very wary of creating a toxic relationship [with China], she is very wary of burning bridges she doesn’t necessarily want to burn.”

Speaking on the eve of Saturday’s vote, Tsai again insisted she would keep communication channels open with Beijing.

“I know that stability across the Taiwan Strait is in our shared interests. I would do my best to maintain that stability,” she said.

Additional reporting by Christy Yao

