Nope, millennials aren't abandoning the Democratic Party. Question is whether they'll vote.

Nope, millennials aren't abandoning the Democratic Party. Question is whether they'll vote.



Harvard Crimson: IOP Poll Finds Declining Support for Obama among Millennials



Daily Beast: New Harvard Study Finds the Door to Millennial Vote Is Open to GOP



US News: Democrats Losing Grip On Young Voters, Harvard Poll Finds



Christian Science Monitor: Millennial poll: Why the youth vote now leans Republican



Newsmax: Hip to Be Red: In Harvard Poll, Millennials Want GOP Congress



ABC News: Majority Of Millennials Turn On Obama, Favor a GOP-Led Congress

The headlines yesterday were breathless:

Here's how the typical news outlet covered the story:



Young voters were once one of the pillars of President Obama's coalition, but the latest national survey of millennials shows that young voters have soured on the president, are more likely to vote Republican in the midterm elections and are in play for 2016 [...] Millennials are on track to vote by about the same margins they did in the 2010 midterm elections, with 26 percent forecast as very likely to vote on Nov. 4. A majority of those likely young voters said they prefer a Republican-led Congress, 51 percent-47 percent, in contrast to 2010 when a clear majority, 55 percent-43 percent, preferred a Democratic-led Congress, a significant swing in favor of the GOP.

While more 18- to 29- year-olds (50 percent-43 percent) surveyed in the IOP’s fall 2014 poll would prefer that Congress be controlled by Democrats instead of Republicans, the numbers improve dramatically for the GOP when only young people who say they will “definitely vote” are studied.

By a significant 12-point margin, 42 percent to 30 percent, a greater proportion of young Republicans say they are definitely going to vote in November than young Democrats.

Here's the actual study:Got that? Millennials are still Democratic, but white millennials will "definitely vote," whereas brown ones are less likely to say they will. That matters because among likely voters, young African Americans prefer Democratic control 68-23, and Latinos 59-34. Among whites it's 53-40 Republican. To further hammer the point:So news flash, white Republicans are more likely to turn out, even among youngsters. We kinda knew that. That's the whole point of Democratic GOTV. To fix that problem. This says nothing about long-term trends, and it sure doesn't support the idiotic media headlines this survey generated from reporters who still don't know how to read a poll.

In any case, we'll have exit poll data next week. Harvard will either look prescient, or have egg on its face. I'm betting on the latter.

p.s.





@mmurraypolitics Contra Harvard study, NBC/WSJ/Annenberg poll has interviewed whopping 4,368 LVs this fall. Among 18-29s, it's 51% Dem, 41% GOP

p.p.s. What are YOU doing to GOTV?

p.p.p.s. Last day to donate.