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By Jeff Aranow: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (49-1-1, 34 KOs) will be suffering his first career knockout loss on September 16 at the hands of Gennady “GGG” Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs), according to Triple G’s trainer Abel Sanchez. He sees Golovkin as having enough talent and punching power to get rid of the soon to be 27-year-old Canelo.

This is going to be a great fight to see how Canelo does against a big puncher that doesn’t fall apart immediately. Canelo has only been in the ring with a couple of hard punchers during his career in Miguel Cotto and James Kirkland. It wasn’t a fair fight in either case. Cotto was too small, and Kirkland too weak in the chin.

Golovkin is someone with more size than Canelo, but a far better chin than Kirkland. Canelo is going to need to take some big shots for him to win this fight. Hopefully for the sake of the boxing fans that pay to see the fight, Canelo doesn’t choose to spoil in some way. He says he wants to give boxing fans a great show. He won’t be able to do that if he runs from Golovkin or if he ries to tie him up for 12 rounds.

Canelo has never done either of those things in his fights. He needs to stick with what brought him to this point in his career, and try and win with his speed and counter punching. If that’s not enough for Canelo to beat Golovkin, then that’s the way it goes. Canelo has already has met his match in his loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2013. Getting beaten by Golovkin would just be more of the same. There’s no shame in Canelo losing to Golovkin.

Sanchez has been predicting a knockout win for Golovkin over Canelo for some time. It’s not surprising that he still feels Golovkin will knock him out. Sanchez is usually right with his knockout predictions. Where he was wrong lately was predicting a knockout for Golovkin over Danny Jacobs.

Golovkin had to go the full 12 rounds against Jacobs in a tougher than expected fight. What was different about Golovkin in that fight was he didn’t go after Jacobs the way he had his other opponents. Golovkin didn’t try and emulate what Dmitry Pirog had done in his knockout win over Jacobs in 2010. Pirog had no respect for Jacobs. He went right after him from the opening round, and he took the shots he needed to to eventually stop him in the 5th. Golovkin was unwilling to take the shots against Jacobs. He fought like he was scared at times. That might explain why Jacobs was able to go the full 12 round distance and come close to beating GGG.

“I think boxing his been waiting for this fight,” said Golovkin’s trainer Sanchez to Fighhype bout the Canelo vs. GGG fight. “I look forward to the date. We’re going to train. Until they get in the ring and touch gloves, the fights not on. I think it’s going to be a great fight for boxing,”said Sanchez.

Golovkin has waited two long years just to get the fight with Canelo. It’s a good thing for boxing that Golden Boy Promotions finally allowed Canelo to take the fight. They can’t protect him forever. He’s had it easy lately in being matched against guys like Amir Khan, Liam Smith and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.

Canelo’s fight against Golovkin is going to be his first tough match-up since facing Erislandy Lara in 2014. That’s not a knock-on Miguel Cotto, but he was too small to have a chance against Canelo.

The popular redheaded Mexican mega-money star Canelo will be turning 27 on July 18. He’s the younger guy compared to the 35-year-old Golovkin, but he’s new to the middleweight division and he doesn’t have the power that the Kazakhstan fighter does.

First and foremost, Sanchez is concerned with the fight coming off on the scheduled date on September 16 without something sidelining it like an injury. Injuries are part of boxing. Hopefully we don’t see an injury cause the fight to be postponed. There were rumors that Golovkin was ill for his fight against Kell Brook last September. Golovkin still took the fight and performed well, but he looked really bad in the final weeks of the fight. It’s a credit to Golovkin that he still gook the fight despite not being at his best.

“He comes to training camp tomorrow,” said Sanchez about Triple G. “We start training, so hopefully it’s coming off. I always believe I’ve got to train my guy to be the best he can be, and the other guy must adapt to us. I think we have enough to stop him in the later rounds or beat him by a decision,” said Sanchez about GGG.

Sanchez should be telling Golovkin not to wait until the later rounds to go for a knockout of Canelo. Golovkin might not enough gas left in the tank in the later rounds for him to score a knockout. The best for Golovkin is to push hard for a knockout in the first 6 rounds like he normally does.

If Golovkin still doesn’t have Canelo out by the 6th, then he at least will have softened him up enough to knock him out in the later rounds. Golovkin cannot afford to just box Canelo for the first three quarters of the fight like he did Danny Jacobs earlier this year on March 18. That was a bad idea for Golovkin to do that. He made the fight closer than it should have been by choosing to box Jacobs instead of trying to punch his lights out.

Sanchez needs to be aware that Golovkin needs a knockout in this fight for him to make sure he gets his hand raised at the end. Canelo has been involved in winning controversial decisions in the past against Austin Trout and Erislandy Lara. Those fights showed that it’s very difficult to beat Canelo by a decision. He’s a popular guy, and those type of fighters tend to get decisions in their favor, even when they appear to have lost.

Golovkin can win a decision, but he might need to knock Canelo down 3 or 4 times to get the win. I don’t think two knockdowns would be enough to avoid losing a controversial decision. It would be best for Golovkin to make sure the judges don’t play a part in this fight. If you leave it up to the judges, they can ruin a good fight with their scoring.

Golovkin has enough power to hurt Canelo at any point in the fight. That much is clear. Canelo can be hurt, especially to the body. Austin Trout hurt Canelo with a body shot in their fight in 2013. Canelo was so hurt that he spent the last six rounds of the fight with his back against the ropes, fighting like a turtle. Canelo didn’t want to get in the center of the ring to risk getting hit with another body shot. Trout didn’t have the power to take advantage of Canelo being stuck against the ropes.

Golovkin will go after Canelo in a big way if he decides that he wants to fight with his back against the ropes. Canelo would be doing the same thing Matthew Macklin, Daniel Geale and Curtis Stevens did if he tries to fight off the ropes. Golovkin will have it easy. I would hope that Canelo is a little more inventive than that. He can’t fight off the ropes against Golovkin unless his trainers have miscalculated their analysis of Golovkin’s fighting style.

Canelo was never a huge puncher even at 154. He was a guy that assembled a lot of knockouts at the expensive of fragile-chinned lower level fighters. When facing better opposition, Canelo is a fighter that boxes and looks to win his fights by decision. It’s going to be tough for Canelo to go the distance with Golovkin without taking a lot of punishment.