I repeat.. The Yankees will not win the AL East in 2015.

When looking forward to the upcoming season, the range of possibilities for this Yankees team seems endless. Could they finish in first and win the division? Sure. Could they fall apart at the seams and finish at the bottom of the division? Yes, that’s possible too. Heading into the 2015 campaign, all teams in the East have major questions that could end up meaning a post-season berth, or another early off-season.

This post will be the first in a two-part series diving into the best and worst case scenarios for this team. I’d rather receive bad new first, so in this first post we’ll take a look at what happens in a worst-case outlook.

Questions Heading Into The Season:

We have all heard the questions and concerns about this team for months. Are they too old? Will they stay healthy? How will the loss of Jeter (and Rivera two years before) impact leadership? What will Alex Rodriguez bring to the table (other than his three-ring circus)? Will they get production from their young players/which ones will get an opportunity this season? How much have the other teams in the division improved?

It’s rare that answers to all of these questions result in negative response, but what if they did?

Father Time, Still Unbeaten?

According to ESPN.com the Yankees have the fourth oldest average age (28.8) heading into this season. (Fun fact- they have the third heaviest team average in baseball at 215 pounds).

The Yankees will be counting on older veterans to carry the offensive this year led by the likes of Mark Teixeira (34), Alex Rodriguez (39), Carlos Beltran (37) with an aging CC Sabathia (34) and Chris Capuano (36) in their starting rotation. Each of the guys have had injury-plagued seasons over the last couple years; so why would this year be any different? Capuano is already out for an extended period of time after injuring his quad covering first base in a Spring Training game. Teixeira has become a running joke among the Yankee fan base with the injuries he has suffered from over the course of his career in pinstripes. Beltran has been injured since the day he signed with the team and put on a jersey. Last year Sabathia lost a ton of weight and looked to be in good shape, but then he lost velocity and got hurt. This year he is back on his Captain Crunch diet, which means the big guy is back up pushing the 300-pound plateau. If you’re going to get hurt when you are in shape, better expect that next trip to the disabled list soon. Especially, if you and the Captain are making it happen. That brings us to Mr. Headlines himself, A-Rod and his nearly 40-year-old body with a brand new hip. To say he will be in peak psychical shape at any point this season is a stretch- not to mention he hasn’t played in a game in more than a year (Spring Training aside).

To expect these old guys to be on the field for the majority of the season is a dream that will more than likely become a nightmare. Battling Father Time and injury riddled pasts, there is little reason to believe the veterans will be big contributors this season.

Injury Bug Bites Again?

There are several players on the squad that have battled the injury bug in the past, without their age slowing them down. Just a few short years ago in Boston, Jacoby Ellsbury was the target of trash talk and criticism from all Yankee fans. “He is too soft. Too injury prone.” The same Yankee fans are now hoping that after one season of 149 games from Ellsbury, he has healed and will play another 150 this season. That was until reports of a strained oblique surfaced and Opening Day is now in question for the $153 million man.

Quite possibly the biggest injury concern heading into this season hinges on the right elbow of Masahiro Tanaka. Last year, the Japanese import started the year as one of the most electric, effective pitchers in the league. Some months later and he was shut down with what looked to be a date with Tommy John surgery. Instead, the Yankees and doctors chose to shut him down and let him rest. He returned in September to appear in only seven innings over two starts. Fast forward to this spring; no Tommy John surgery and rest was the recovery plan for a torn UCL. So far the reports have been great regarding his health and his performance. Even with a seemly positive recovery, can we really trust his arm to not fall apart this season? Pitchers across the league are routinely getting shut down and thrown under the knife for the same injury. Will Tanaka be the one that can escape surgery and pitch without any setbacks? Odds are surely against it.

Staying in the rotation, we know that Ivan Nova will be out until the middle of summer and as mentioned earlier, Sabathia is teetering on the brink of an appearance on “The Biggest Loser.” The next arm to pay attention to is Michael Pineda. I am a big Pineda fan, but he hasn’t shown the ability to stay healthy at this point in his career. With some questionable strategies on the mound last year and some flashes of immaturity, he has to prove he is a reliable option for the Yankees to count on.

Injuries across the board could single-handedly set the Yankees back several important pieces in their starting rotation and lineup. Another season of injuries would surely spell yet another missed post-season.

The (NEW) Face of the Yankees?

For the last 20 years, Yankees baseball was synonymous with names like Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte. Over the last few seasons we have seen the end of an era with all of the Core Four retiring and leaving the clubhouse in flux. Currently, A-Rod is the longest tenured Yankees (and New York athlete in general). The Yankees went as far as trying to push Brett Gardner as their representative for baseball’s Twitter contest, “Face of MLB”. The relationship between A-Rod and the Yankees has spoiled and reached the point where they neglected to mention his first home run of the spring. Clearly there is a message from the front office as they try to separate themselves from the Alex Rodriguez media circus. If the management of the franchise doesn’t want to support their biggest star, what message does that send to the locker room? With that turmoil, what veteran is willing and able to step up into leadership role that Jeter played so well?

Throughout a 162-game season, teams need someone to rally around and push them through the ups and downs that come in a season. The void in the clubhouse left by the Core Four will be felt the most in 2015.

Baby Bombers Too Young?

As mentioned above, the Yankees are an old team. For years there have been complaints and demands for the team to focus on their farm system and it finally looks like there might be some promise. Names like Luis Severino, Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Jose Pirela and Rob Refsynder have Yankees fans thinking of a new Core Four (or Five). It is refreshing to have hope for the future, but what happens if these guys are thrown into action too early? What happens if they don’t pan out and reach expectations? A fatal combination for this season would be for the old vets to get hurt and the young guys to fall flat.

Competition Too Strong?

Boston has been see-sawing up and down the division the last couple seasons going worst to first, back to worst, back to first and all the way down again. They have moved on from Jon Lester and have focused on revamping their offense. Additions of Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez along with Cuban stud Yoan Moncada give the Red Sox faithful excitement and hopes of another worst to first jump. The Blue Jays have made smart moves to improve their defense and offensive efficiency by signing Russell Martin and trading for Josh Donaldson. Baltimore is the defending division champion and will be getting Manny Machado back for a full season and should be expecting a bounce back from Chris Davis. The Rays are always competitive with young arms in the starting rotation led by Chris Archer and Alex Cobb. They also will have a fresh voice in the clubhouse with new manager Kevin Cash.

Projection:

There are many variables that could go wrong for the Yankees this year from the age and health of the roster to the elevated competition in the division. With everything outlined above, expectations for this season should be tempered. Of course you should be excited for the new season to being. Yes, seeing a much better defensive team should make you confident in this team. But when it comes down to it, the Yankees will not win the AL East.

..Or will they? Stay tuned for the second part of this series details why the Yankees will win the AL East.