The graph shows the likelyhood of a particular number of electoral votes going for the democrats. The red line represents the break even point (270). The gray area and vertical black lines represent the 95% confidence interval. The data is calculated using the probabilities below which can be changed to explore various scenarios. As the night goes on each state should lock into the winner providing an update probability distribution at each step. The probabilities are from 538, and the live results come from where I see fit, though right now this is CNN.