The giant purple blob that ate up much of the Pacific Ocean after Christmas, was, as Surfline forecaster Jonathan Warren described, “a storm system that portrayed a classic midwinter scenario – a large/strong low that slowly tracked from Japan toward the Gulf of Alaska and with good high pressure support ridging in behind it.” The Eddie went on Yellow Alert, but was called off. Meanwhile, Pipeline pumped for days. Mavericks was, well, a bit ragged on January 1st and 2nd. Yesterday, though, as the swell dropped to manageable levels and the wind swung around from the east, Ocean Beach offered up large to extra-large a-frames for locals and visitors alike — making it our first Good-Epic of the decade. (See all 2019’s Good-Epic here.)

We asked Surfline lead forecaster Schaler Perry about it. “When it comes to XL or large California surf, storm systems strongest west of the dateline are typically a write-off,” he said. “There’s just too much decay as the swell makes its way ‘cross the Pacific. But there’s really no cliché more applicable to surf forecasting than the notion that general rules of thumb are meant to be broken. Leading into Christmas, long-range forecast charts were telegraphing a low to behold – with seas near 60 feet – developing over the far northwestern Pacific just before the New Year. Special sauce for the West Coast would be the track – slow to the east-northeast with a captured fetch developing as the strongest winds remained over the developing seas. Enhanced swell production.”

Perry continues: “As our low began to deepen on a slow track away from Japan the stats were impressive – an expansive area of 45-65 knot winds and seas just shy of 60 feet. A little short of model guidance, but we knew Hawaii was going to be XXL and the West Coast would see a uniquely sizeable, especially long period swell to start the New Year. The end result for Northern California was a near-three-day run with about ten feet of deepwater swell – period in the 20-22 second range January 1st, at 18-20 seconds on the 2nd, then easing to 15-17 seconds as Ocean Beach went Good to Epic on the 3rd.”

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SWELL SIGNATURE

Storm Location and Track: Slow track to the east-northeast from Japan across the western North Pacific

Storm Wind: Expansive fetch of 45- to 65-knot winds

Storm Seas: Satellite confirmed seas of 57 feet

Swell Travel Time to NorCal: Four-five days