Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina greets the gathering in Dhaka, Bangladesh, Monday, Dec. 31, 2018. AP/PTI | Photo Credit: PTI

New Delhi: Sheikh Hasina’s overwhelming victory in the Bangladeshi general election -- the ruling Awami League-led coalition won an astonishing 288 of the 298 seats that went to polls – has triggered cries of foul play by the Opposition. But irrespective of the protests by the Opposition Jatiya Oikya Front (National Unity Front), it is clear that the 71-year-old Hasina stands unchallenged in Bangladesh's politics and is set to lead her country for the next five years.

She will also get a free hand in shaping her country’s foreign policy. This unprecedented concentration of power in the hands of one person means New Delhi will have to calibrate its Dhaka policy taking that reality subtly into account.

India’s northeast

India’s Bangladesh watchers generally agree that the Hasina government has cracked down on militants from India’s northeastern states and operatives of Pakistan’s ISI based out of her country. Both groups got a freer run during the rule of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) government led by Khaleda Zia from 2001 to 2006. Hasina also came down heavily on Islamist groups and individuals who had taken a pro-Pakistan stance during the 1971 liberation war and beyond.

It is not insignificant that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first foreign leader to call Hasina to congratulate her on her splendid victory.

Spoke to Sheikh Hasina Ji and congratulated her on the resounding victory in the Bangladesh elections.



Wished her the very best for the tenure ahead. — Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) December 31, 2018

Having said that, it’s simplistic to view the political divide and the decimation of the Opposition in Bangladesh as a victory of the “pro-India” side. The multiple allegations of irregularities in the polls and shrinking space for Opposition voices in Bangladesh are a matter of concern for democracy’s health in South Asia as a whole.

Uncertain neighbourhood

The Awami League victory comes at a time when India is facing a renewed challenge from the north and west, with China and Pakistan forging closer economic and military ties. While Pakistan continues to harbour terrorists and cause unrest in Jammu and Kashmir, China is making further inroads into South Asia as is clear from the 2017 Doklam standoff and Beijing’s sly attempts to draw Sri Lanka and the Maldives into its orbit of influence. Given that backdrop, it is in New Delhi’s interest to have a government in Bangladesh that is mindful of its concerns and contributes to stability in South Asia.

Of course, national self-interest will also be the guiding factor for the Hasina government as it seeks to further trade and business ties with both India and China.

Bangladesh’s economy is humming along nicely for the past decade with Hasina at the helm, and its image as a desperately poor country has changed for good. Like China, India seeks greater trade and connectivity with Bangladesh. The Modi government has stepped up the process. A railway link between Tripura and Chittagong was announced last year in August. A bus service running from Kolkata to India’s northeast via Bangladesh also started on Hasina’s watch.

Challenges remain

Besides pushing against Beijing’s attempts to include Bangladesh in its controversial Road and Belt initiative, New Delhi has other issues on its plate when it comes to Dhaka. Foremost of these are the long-pending Teesta water dispute and the matter of illegal Bangladeshi migrants that has become an election issue in some Indian states. (Officially, Dhaka maintains that the migrant issue has to be dealt by the Indian government and has "no relation" to Bangladesh.) The two countries have also taken starkly different approaches to the Rohingya crisis.

India will have to ensure that cooler heads prevail in dealing with such issues, especially the rhetoric over Bangladeshi migrants which has the potential to turn into something uglier in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The ‘friendly’ Sheikh Hasina government will be watching closely.

The views expressed by the author are personal and may not in any way represent those of Times Network.