A large number of participants revealed that they were ill informed about the campaign issues that they identified as important to them when they were making their ballot choices. They had, the data suggest, made many decisions based upon false perceptions and erroneous beliefs.

Stimulus Legislation



Although the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that stimulus legislation caused an increase of two million to five million full time equivalent jobs by the 3rd quarter of 2010, voters failed to get the news. Seventy-five percent of a Wall Street Journal panel of economists said in March 2010 that the legislation had a positive effect on growth. Yet, only 11% of the voters polled believed the stimulus package resulted in millions of jobs and only 8% thought that professional economist had this same opinion. Remarkably, 1 out of 4 believed it had caused the loss of jobs. Even more surprising, those who had not completed high school were three times more likely to know the truth than those with more educaion.



Health Care Reform vs. The Deficit

One again, a significant slice of those questioned failed to know the facts. In March 2010, the CBO concluded that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, known worldwide as Obamacare, would reduce the national deficit through 2019 by $124 billion (excluding the effect of the education provisions). Looking beyond 2019, the reduction would be about 0.5% GDP. Furthermore, the Boards of Trustees of the Medicare trust funds stated that "The financial status of the HI (Hospital Insurance) trust fund is substantially improved by the lower expenditures and additional tax revenues instituted by the Affordable Care Act. These changes are estimated to postpone the exhaustion of HI trust fund assets from 2017 under the prior law to 2029 under current law..."

In stark contrast with these informed projections, a staggering 82% of voters believed economists thought the legislation would increase the deficit (53%) or believed economist were evenly divided on the issue (29%). When asked for their own opinion, 3 out of 4 participants (75%) were convinced this healthcare reform law was going to add to the deficit during the next ten years.

The State of the Economy



In September 2010, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (USBEA) reported an economic trough in June of 2009 that the Business Cycle Dating Committee noted as significant although not a sign that the economy had returned to normal. Rather, the NY Times quoted on September 20, 2010, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. About a month later the USBEA revised its estimate of growth for the 3rd quarter of 2010 from 2.0% to 2.5%. Around the same time, the bureau released its estimate that overall personal income would be 0.5% greater in October and they reported wage and salary disbursements in October had grown over 400% compared to the previous month. By election day, 2010, it was clear to the professionals that the US economy had begun to improve.

But it seems that too few in the government and in the media were trumpeting the good news. A majority of 55% who had voted in November thought the economy was still getting worse! Although those with income over $100,000 were slightly better informed about the direction of the economy, 43% in this group still believed that the economy was still sliding. Amazingly, those with less than a high school education achieve the unique status of being the only group in which most or nearly most (46% -51%), had the correct notion that the economy was getting better.

The Government Bailout of GM and Chrysler



Whether the GM and Chrysler bailouts occurred under the administration of President Bush, President Obama, or both was another area about which the voters were immensely mistaken on Election Day 2010. The Bush Administration made the first decision to rescue GM and Chrysler when it reversed its previous position to exclude automakers from TARP assistance. The first allocation of $17.4 billion under Bush was followed by another $63 billion under Obama. The government had made it clear that all of this monetary assistance was considered loans and not gifts.

But the responses gathered by the survey reveal that 69% believed only one president was responsible with most (53%) thinking it was Obama and the rest (16%) thinking it was Bush. Less than one third of the voters (28%) knew the fact that both administrations participated in the bailouts.

Income Taxes





Considering how Americans are always complaining about taxes, few noticed the $116 billion in tax cuts for individuals bundled in the stimulus legislation enacted in February 2009. It is a fact that more then 30% of the benefits provided by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act took the form of payroll tax credits for people earning less than $75,000. As a result, 97% of American households saved an average of $1,179 in taxes during 2009. Yet, nearly the entire voting public failed to realize that they were taking home more money each week. About 86% believed that taxes had increased in 2009 (38%) or had remained the same (48%). There is, however, one curious insight. Once again, approximately half of those earning less than $25,000 believed correctly that tax cuts were included in the legislation.