By Ashleigh Cotting

If all goes according to plan, 2016 will see a net 45 GW added to the U.S. electric grid. As of Dec. 28, 2015, almost 10 GW of operating capacity was scheduled to retire in 2016, while units with an expected online year of 2016 totaled approximately 55 GW. Additionally, nearly 7 GW of capacity is scheduled to undergo fuel conversions.

Most of the retiring capacity is coal fired, totaling nearly 6 GW, while wind power leads all fuel groups in planned 2016 additions. A total of 49 units are scheduled to undergo conversions. A total of 6,339 MW of coal will be converted to 5,962 MW of gas and 377 MW of oil. There are also two units scheduled to convert from natural gas to coal; both are located at Plant Ratcliffe (Kemper County IGCC). The Mississippi Power Co.-owned units were brought online as gas-fired units in 2014 while construction of the plant's coal gasification equipment continued.

Nonrenewable fuels account for over 99% of all retirements scheduled for 2016, totaling 10,418 MW. In contrast, a scant 21 MW of renewable capacity fueled by water and biomass is set to retire. There are no nuclear, geothermal, solar or wind units scheduled to retire during the year.

Coal accounts for 59% of all 2016 retirements. The largest retiring unit is the 528-MW Welsh ST 2, which is located in Titus County, Texas, and owned by Southwestern Electric Power Co. Coal dominates planned retirements for multiple reasons. The EPA's MATS ruling took effect in April of 2015, causing utilities to plan retirements for coal-fired units in an effort to meet new standards. The initial compliance date was last year, but some units were able to obtain a one-year extension pushing their compliance deadline to April 2016. Additionally, low gas prices have contributed to the shift away from coal-fired generation.

Another 30% of retiring capacity is fueled by natural gas. The largest retiring unit is Michoud ST 3, which is located in Orleans County, La., and owned by Entergy New Orleans Inc. The other operating unit onsite, Michoud ST 2, is also retiring. Cumulatively, this will remove 782 MW of operating capacity.

Oil fuels 10% of the capacity scheduled to retire in 2016. The 398-MW Turkey Point ST 1 will be the largest oil-fired unit to go offline. The unit, which is wholly owned by Florida Power & Light Co. is located in Miami-Dade County, Fla.

Other retirements scheduled for 2016 include 16 water-powered units, totaling 18 MW of capacity. The only synthetic gas-fired unit scheduled to retire is the 85-MW Wabash Valley Power IGCC unit 1. Just one biomass unit is scheduled to retire: the 3-MW Port Townsend Paper Corporation ST GEN4, which burns black liquor.

Renewable energy is slated to account for nearly 73% of the planned 2016 additions. The nonrenewable fueled additions are dominated by natural gas, which will fuel 24% of all new-build units.

2016 is set to bring the first all-new nuclear capacity addition since 1996. Watts Bar 2 is located in Rhea County, Tenn., and owned by Tennessee Valley Authority. The company first began working to bring the 1,150-MW unit online in 1973 and, after a long delay, began work to complete the project in 2007. The unit was licensed in October 2015 and the first fuel was loaded into the reactor in December.

Natural gas-fired units account for 24% of the planned capacity additions for 2016. The 530-MW Brunswick County Power CC ST01, owned by Virginia Electric and Power Co. d/b/a Dominion Virginia Power, is the largest natural gas unit slated to come online. Three other units at that site, which is located in Brunswick County, Va., are also scheduled to begin generating power during the year. All four units are currently under construction, and will total 1,358 MW when brought online.

Solar units account for 34% of the operating capacity additions scheduled for 2016. There is a four-way tie at 300 MW for the largest solar project projected to come online. The Beltran Solar Project, which is owned by Centauri Energy LLC and located in Stanislaus County, Calif., is still in early development. The ECG Utah Solar 1 Plant, owned by Energy Capital Group LLC and located in Miller County, Utah, is also in early development. The Desert Stateline Facility is under construction. The project is owned by Southern Power Co. and First Solar Inc. and is located in Riverside County, Calif. The fourth 300-MW unit is the Stateline Solar Project, which is located in San Bernardino County, Calif., and owned by First Solar Development LLC. The project is already under construction.

Wind power totals 38% of planned additions. The three largest units scheduled to come online all have operating capacities of 400 MW. The Frio Energy Project, which is located in Curry County, N.M., and owned by Tri Global Energy LLC, is still in early development. The other two 400-MW projects are both under construction. Grande Prairie WT 1 is located in Holt County, Neb. BHE Renewables LLC owns the facility, which will have a total of 200 Vestas turbines. Infinity Wind Power and Westar Energy Inc. are constructing the Western Plains Wind Project WT 1 in Ford County, Kan.

Much like coal retirements, the surge in renewable capacity additions is tied to public policy. Many utilities across the country continue to add renewable capacity in an attempt to meet Renewable Portfolio Standard goals. Furthermore, generation retired as a result of the MATS ruling will need to be replaced. Capacity additions are more likely to be fueled by renewables in an effort to comply with the Clean Power Plan, which was released in August of 2015. The recent extension of the production tax credit and investment tax credit, however, could take some pressure off renewable energy development in 2016 and allow developers to push back the online date for some of the projects.

Of the NERC regions, SERC Reliability Corp., or SERC, has the most operating capacity retiring, with 3,244 MW scheduled to go offline in 2016.

SERC and Reliability First Corp., or RFC, are home to 64% of the coal-fired generation that will be retiring in 2016. The Florida Reliability Coordinating Council, or FRCC, combines with SERC to account for 79% of the retiring natural gas-fired capacity.

The Western Electricity Coordinating Council, or WECC, has the most capacity scheduled to come online, totaling 14,101 MW. This region is also the only one adding geothermal. WECC could also see the most solar additions, at 10 GW. The Texas Reliability Entity, or TRE, has the highest amount of wind additions, totaling 8 GW.

Use SNL Energy's Power Plant (Units) Projects and Regional Power Plant Outlook templates to generate a list of active power plant unit projects and a summary of operating power plants by fuel type and NERC region. Use SNL Energy's Regional Coal Unit Retirement Summary template to generate a summary of coal retirements for a selected region.