Gonzaga drops from the No. 1 seed line in the Field of 68 after this weekend’s loss at home to BYU.

The truth is, I still think the Bulldogs deserve a spot on the top seed line. I don’t think that’s what the NCAA Tournament selection committee will do, though, and with these projections I’m trying to predict how the committee will view the field. March Madness, indeed.

Think back to the sneak peek a couple weeks ago. At that time, the committee gave Gonzaga the No. 4 overall seed, behind a pair of three-loss teams (Kansas and Baylor), despite the Zags’ undefeated record. Clearly, committee members were not overwhelmed by the zero in the loss column. Now, Gonzaga has a 1 in the loss column, thanks to a BYU team that has zero shot at an at-large bid (BYU has four losses to teams with an RPI of 144 or worse).

MORE: Gonzaga's loss might cost them a No. 1 seed

Since that reveal, No. 5 overall seed North Carolina is undefeated, which is why I moved the Tar Heels up to the top seed line after Baylor’s tumbles (the Bears have lost three times since the reveal). The No. 6 seed, Florida State, has also dropped a couple, so FSU is out of the No. 1 mix right now. The No. 7 seed, Louisville, lost at UNC by 11 points, and that at least drops the Cardinals behind Oregon, which was the No. 8 overall seed. The Ducks are 5-0 since the reveal, 26-4 overall.

Again, knowing that the committee didn’t give overwhelming weight to Gonzaga’s perfect record a couple weeks ago, it’s logical to assume that those members will now be more impressed with a four-loss Oregon (with 15 RPI top-100 victories) than a one-loss Gonzaga (with only 10 top-100 victories). I’m not sure I agree — Gonzaga has much better non-con wins, for example — but going by the only concrete information we have at our disposal, that’s my conclusion. The reason I could be wrong: After that sneak peek, Gonzaga beat Saint Mary’s for a second time, and that added quality win could be the difference.

Now, on to the rest of this week’s Field of 68. As always, we’re trying to give you a look at why teams are projected at their current seed line. Our goal is to give you the information that will be used by the selection committee — a mix of statistics and other relevant facts for every single at-large team. Basically, this is where we think the committee would seed teams based on what they’ve accomplished through Sunday’s games.

Note: Automatic bids (noted in parenthesis) are given to the team with the fewest conference losses (with Pomeroy rating used as the tiebreaker), or for leagues that are done with the regular season, the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. Note, part 2: All RPI numbers are from CBSSports.com.

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 1 seeds

Kansas (Big 12), Villanova (Big East), North Carolina (ACC), Oregon (Pac-12)

Kansas (26-3): Pom/RPI: 8/1. vs. RPI top 25: 4-0. vs. RPI top 100: 17-3

Resume peak: Elite SOS, 17 top 100 RPI wins (21 by Pom). Resume valley: Nothing, really. “Worst” loss was to Indiana, which has plunged recently but was full strength in November when the game was played

Villanova (27-3): Pom/RPI: 2/2. vs. RPI top 25: 5-2. vs. RPI top 100: 16-3

Resume peak: Elite wins away from home (Purdue, Notre Dame, Xavier, Creighton, Wake Forest). Resume valley: Nothing, really. Swept by Butler

North Carolina (25-5): Pom/RPI: 3/3. vs. RPI top 25: 4-2. vs. RPI top 100: 14-5

Resume peak: Nine RPI/Pom top 50 wins. Double-digit wins vs. Louisville, Virginia, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech. Resume valley: Not much. “Just” 3-4 vs. top 100 teams on the road

Oregon (26-4): Pom/RPI: 17/5. vs. RPI top 25: 2-2. vs. RPI top 100: 15-3

Resume peak: Crushed elite Arizona team. Only two full-strength losses. Resume valley: Best non-con win just Tennessee. Only four RPI top 50 wins. Full-strength loss at Colorado; loss to Georgetown (w/ Dillon Brooks limited)

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 2 seeds

Gonzaga (WCC), Louisville, Arizona, UCLA

Gonzaga (29-1): Pom/RPI: 1/11. vs. RPI top 25: 4-0. vs. RPI top 100: 10-1

Resume peak: Away-from-home non-con wins vs. Arizona, Florida, Iowa State. Swept Saint Mary’s. Shiny record. Resume valley: Weak conference means not as many top 100 wins as other elite teams; 8 of 10 teams in WCC have RPI of 90 or worse

Louisville (23-6): Pom/RPI: 5/6. vs. RPI top 25: 3-6. vs. RPI top 100: 13-6

Resume peak: Beat Kentucky/Purdue/full-strength Indiana in non-con. No mediocre losses — all six losses are to at-large locks. Resume valley: “Only” 3-6 vs. RPI top 25 could be determining factor keeping UL from No. 1 seed (but not a 2 seed)

Arizona (26-4): Pom/RPI: 22/9. vs. RPI top 25: 1-4. vs. RPI top 100: 12-4

Resume peak: Only two full-strength losses. Elite road win at UCLA. Resume valley: Not much. Non-con SOS outside top 100 (Pom). Hard to imagine a 1 seed with 1-4 record vs. RPI top 25

UCLA (26-3): Pom/RPI: 13/15. vs. RPI top 25: 3-2. vs. RPI top 100: 10-3

Resume peak: Elite wins at Kentucky, vs. Oregon, at Arizona. Resume valley: Awful non-con SOS (290 Pom) could be a separator from other 1-seed contenders

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 3 seeds

Baylor, Kentucky (SEC), Florida, Florida State

Baylor (23-6): Pom/RPI: 11/8. vs. RPI top 25: 3-3. vs. RPI top 100: 14-6

Resume peak: Elite non-con wins (Louisville, Xavier, Oregon, VCU, Michigan State). Resume valley: Not much. Slumping now. Losses to bubble teams Texas Tech, Kansas State

Kentucky (24-5): Pom/RPI: 6/7. vs. RPI top 25: 2-4. vs. RPI top 100: 14-5

Resume peak: Beat current No. 1 seed UNC on neutral court. Solid non-con SOS (Pom 55). Resume valley: Only one RPI/Pom top 25 win

Florida (23-6): Pom/RPI: 7/6. vs. RPI top 25: 1-4. vs. RPI top 100: 15-6

Resume peak: Elite non-con SOS, computer numbers. Crushed Kentucky at home. Resume valley: Only one RPI/Pom top 25 win, only five top 50 wins

Florida State (23-6): Pom/RPI: 18/12. vs. RPI top 25: 6-2. vs. RPI top 100: 13-5

Resume peak: Only team with at least six RPI top 25 wins. Resume valley: Bad non-con SOS (257 Pom), just 3-5 on the road in ACC

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 4 seeds

Butler, West Virginia, Duke, Purdue (Big Ten)

Butler (23-6): Pom/RPI: 20/10. vs. RPI top 25: 4-2. vs. RPI top 100: 17-4

Resume peak: Swept Villanova, Xavier and Marquette. Non-con wins vs. Arizona, Indiana, Cincinnati, Northwestern. Resume valley: Head-scratching losses to Indiana State, St. John’s

West Virginia (23-6): Pom/RPI: 4/25. vs. RPI top 25: 3-1. vs. RPI top 100: 11-4

Resume peak: Elite wins vs. Kansas, Baylor, Virginia. Resume valley: Inexcusable non-con SOS (339 Pom). Losses to Temple, Oklahoma

Duke (22-7): Pom/RPI: 15/13. vs. RPI top 25: 4-3. vs. RPI top 100: 13-6

Resume peak: Elite wins away from home (Virginia, Notre Dame, Florida). Resume valley: Home loss to N.C. State (RPI 104). Just 3-5 in ACC road games

Purdue (23-6): Pom/RPI: 12/20. vs. RPI top 25: 1-3. vs. RPI top 100: 13-6

Resume peak: Wins away from home vs. Notre Dame, Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana. Resume valley: Lack of elite wins, relatively speaking (mediocre Big Ten doesn’t help). Bad non-con SOS (215)

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 5 seeds

Virginia, Notre Dame, SMU (AAC), Minnesota

Virginia (19-9): Pom/RPI: 9/19. vs. RPI top 25: 3-5. vs. RPI top 100: 11-9

Resume peak: Swept Louisville. No. 6 overall SOS (Pom). Road wins at Louisville, Notre Dame, Clemson, California. Resume valley: Struggling, big-time, now; lost four of past five games (including by 24 at UNC)

Notre Dame (22-7): Pom/RPI: 25/22. vs. RPI top 25: 2-6. vs. RPI top 100: 11-7

Resume peak: Elite wins vs. Louisville, Florida State. Road wins at Virginia Tech, Miami and Pittsburgh. Resume valley: Awful non-con SOS (278 Pom); only one non-con win against a team even on the bubble (Northwestern)

SMU (25-4): Pom/RPI: 16/18. vs. RPI top 25: 1-1. vs. RPI top 100: 8-4

Resume peak: Lots and lots of wins, only a couple losses. Resume valley: Only one of those wins came against a team in the RPI top 50

Minnesota (22-7): Pom/RPI: 30/16. vs. RPI top 25: 1-1. vs. RPI top 100: 13-7

Resume peak: Excellent Big 10 road wins at Purdue, Maryland, Northwestern. Resume valley: Gophers’ resume lacks “pop” to get into top four seeds, but really, this is a pretty solid resume

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 6 seeds

Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Wisconsin

Cincinnati (25-4): Pom/RPI: 24/14. vs. RPI top 25: 1-2. vs. RPI top 100: 6-4

Resume peak: Non-con wins at Iowa State, vs. Xavier. Resume valley: Serious lack of top 100 wins puts Cincy’s ceiling at a 4-seed

Oklahoma State (20-9): Pom/RPI: 19/27. vs. RPI top 25: 1-5. vs. RPI top 100: 9-8

Resume peak: Current 10-1 stretch includes road wins at West Virginia, Texas Tech, Kansas State, TCU. Won at Wichita State. Resume valley: Not much. They’ve moved to lock status, which is impressive after 0-6 start to Big 12 play

Iowa State (19-9): Pom/RPI: 23/36. vs. RPI top 25: 2-5. vs. RPI top 100: 9-8

Resume peak: Cyclones in great shape, with wins at Kansas, vs. Baylor, at Oklahoma State. Resume valley: Losses at teams outside the bubble (Texas, Iowa)

Wisconsin (22-7): Pom/RPI: 21/32. vs. RPI top 25: 1-3. vs. RPI top 100: 13-7

Resume peak: Non-con wins vs. Syracuse, Marquette, Tennessee. Road win at Minnesota. Resume valley: Resume is pretty thin, built on wins vs. teams outside the RPI top 50

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 7 seeds

Creighton, Maryland, Dayton (A-10), South Carolina

Creighton (22-7): Pom/RPI: 26/23. vs. RPI top 25: 2-2. vs. RPI top 100: 10-7

Resume peak: Swept Butler (including road win after Mo Watson, Jr’s season-ending injury). Beat Wisconsin in November. Resume valley: Just 4-6 without Watson, and three of those wins were vs. DePaul (twice) and Georgetown

Maryland (22-7): Pom/RPI: 46/28. vs. RPI top 25: 1-2. vs. RPI top 100: 14-7

Resume peak: Shiny record. Road wins at Minnesota, Northwestern. Resume valley: Weak Big Ten hurt chances to get elite wins. Just 2-5 in past seven, including losses at Penn State, vs. Iowa

Dayton (23-5): Pom/RPI: 31/21. vs. RPI top 25: 0-2. vs. RPI top 100: 10-4

Resume peak: Solid non-con SOS (Pom 76) includes wins vs. Vandy, Alabama, East Tennessee State. Resume valley: Lack of “signature” win; 10 top 100 wins vs. teams ranked 44-96

South Carolina (21-8): Pom/RPI: 28/30. vs. RPI top 25: 1-2. vs. RPI top 100: 12-7

Resume peak: Beat Michigan, Syracuse in non-con. Beat Florida in SEC play. Resume valley: Struggled recently (four losses in five games)

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 8 seeds

Virginia Tech, Saint Mary’s, Miami, Michigan

Virginia Tech (20-8): Pom/RPI: 42/39. vs. RPI top 25: 2-5. vs. RPI top 100: 11-7

Resume peak: Home wins vs. Duke, Virginia. Road wins at Michigan, Clemson, Pitt. Resume valley: Awful non-con SOS (Pom 337). 26-point loss at N.C. State

Saint Mary’s (26-3): Pom/RPI: 14/17. vs. RPI top 25: 1-2. vs. RPI top 100: 7-3

Resume peak: Excellent road win at Dayton. Shiny record. Swept BYU, which looks better after BYU beat Gonzaga. Resume valley: Awful non-con SOS (Pom 285), swept by Gonzaga

Miami (20-8): Pom/RPI: 29/35. vs. RPI top 25: 3-5. vs. RPI top 100: 8-8

Resume peak: In ACC play, won at Virginia, beat UNC and Duke at home. Resume valley: Bad non-con SOS (274); best non-con win was Stanford (Pom 97)

Michigan (19-10): Pom/RPI: 27/46. vs. RPI top 25: 2-2. vs. RPI top 100: 11-10

Resume peak: Wolverines are in. Zero chance a team with 11 top 100 wins gets left out of this shaky field. Recent wins vs. Wisconsin, Purdue wrapped that up. Beat SMU, Marquette in non-con. Resume valley: Losses to teams that will almost certainly miss the field (Ohio State, Iowa, Illinois)

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 9 seeds

Wichita State, Xavier, Northwestern, Providence

Wichita State (27-4): Pom/RPI: 10/40. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 2-4

Resume peak: Look at that Pomeroy number. In current 12-game winning streak, only one win by fewer than 15 points. Resume valley: Complete lack of elite wins. Best are Illinois State, Oklahoma

Xavier (18-11): Pom/RPI: 39/26. vs. RPI top 25: 1-7. vs. RPI top 100: 8-10

Resume peak: Excellent non-con SOS (Pom 38). Non-con wins vs. Clemson, Wake Forest. Resume valley: Just 3-5 since Edmund Sumner was lost for season with injury

Northwestern (20-9): Pom/RPI: 36/50. vs. RPI top 25: 1-4. vs. RPI top 100: 9-9

Resume peak: Non-con wins vs. Dayton, Wake Forest. Beat Wisconsin on road. Resume valley: Struggling now (lost five of seven). Swept by Illinois. Bad non-con SOS (Pom 241)

Providence (18-11): Pom/RPI: 56/52. vs. RPI top 25: 2-5. vs. RPI top 100: 10-8

Resume peak: Riding four-game winning streak against at-large teams (vs. Butler, vs. Xavier, at Creighton, vs. Marquette). Resume valley: Bad non-con SOS (275), with best win vs. bubble Rhode Island. Also, losses to DePaul, Boston College, St. John’s

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 10 seeds

Michigan State VCU, Marquette, Arkansas

Michigan State (18-11): Pom/RPI: 50/42. vs. RPI top 25: 2-6. vs. RPI top 100: 11-10

Resume peak: Strong non-con SOS (54). Swept Minnesota. Beat Wichita State, Wisconsin, Northwestern. Resume valley: Losses to Northeastern, Penn State, Ohio State

VCU (23-6): Pom/RPI: 47/24. vs. RPI top 25: 1-1. vs. RPI top 100: 7-4

Resume peak: Beat Dayton at home. Non-con wins vs. Princeton, Middle Tennessee and UNC Asheville (all either leading their conference or tied for lead). Resume valley: Lack of top 50 wins. Loss at Fordham (Pom 189)

Marquette (17-11): Pom/RPI: 32/72. vs. RPI top 25: 2-3. vs. RPI top 100: 8-10

Resume peak: Beat No. 1 seed Villanova at home, Georgia on road. Resume valley: Shaky RPI number. Just 2-6 on road in Big East play

Arkansas (22-7): Pom/RPI: 41/31. vs. RPI top 25: 0-3. vs. RPI top 100: 10-5

Resume peak: Wins at South Carolina, Vandy. Resume valley: Overall bland resume includes a stinker: Loss at Missouri (RPI 251)

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 11 seeds

Seton Hall, Syracuse, USC, Illinois State (MVC), Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Seton Hall (18-10): Pom/RPI: 57/49. vs. RPI top 25: 1-5. vs. RPI top 100: 8-9

Resume peak: Non-con wins vs. South Carolina, California. Home Big East wins vs. Marquette, Xavier, Creighton. Resume valley: Losses to St. John’s, Stanford

Syracuse (17-13): Pom/RPI: 51/78. vs. RPI top 25: 3-3. vs. RPI top 100: 8-10

Resume peak: Elite wins vs. Duke, Florida State and Virginia. Resume valley: Bad RPI. Losses to Boston College, St. John’s and UConn. Just 2-10 away from home

Southern California (21-8): Pom/RPI: 68/38. vs. RPI top 25: 2-5. vs. RPI top 100: 5-7

Resume peak: Home wins vs. UCLA, SMU. Resume valley: Those are the only two wins vs. teams even remotely connected to the bubble. Current four-game losing skid includes worst loss of the season, at Arizona State (Pom 132). Bad non-con SOS (Pom 267)

Illinois State (25-5): Pom/RPI: 45/33. vs. RPI top 25: 0-0. vs. RPI top 100: 2-3

Resume peak: Beat Wichita State. Shiny record. No. 1 seed in Missouri Valley Tournament (that’s officially why the Redbirds are here right now). Resume valley: Wichita State is the only decent win. Losses to Murray State (RPI 238), split with Tulsa (RPI 120)

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 12 seeds

California, Illinois, UNC Wilmington (CAA), UT Arlington (Sun Belt), East Tennessee State (SoCon)

California (19-9): Pom/RPI: 48/51. vs. RPI top 25: 0-6. vs. RPI top 100: 4-8

Resume peak: Zero wins vs. at-large locks. Best Ws are Princeton, Southern California. Resume valley: The Pac 12 has three locks (Oregon, UCLA, Arizona); Cal is 0-5 vs. those three teams, 10-1 vs. everyone else)

Illinois (17-12): Pom/RPI: 62/57. vs. RPI top 25: 1-4. vs. RPI top 100: 9-12

Resume peak: Swept Northwestern. Wins vs. Michigan, VCU among nine RPI top 100 wins. Resume valley: Home loss to Winthrop, swept by Penn State

No. 13 seeds: Nevada (MWC), Vermont (America East), Akron (Mid-American), Princeton (Ivy)

No. 14 seeds: Oakland (Horizon), CSU Bakersfield (WAC), Monmouth (Metro Atlantic), Belmont (Ohio Valley)

No. 15 seeds: Bucknell (Patriot), Winthrop (Big South), Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun), South Dakota (Summit)

No. 16 seeds: North Carolina Central (Mid-Eastern), Texas Southern (Southwestern), UC Irvine (Big West), North Dakota (Big Sky), New Orleans (Southland), Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast)

Dropped out (at-large in italics): Kansas State, North Dakota State, UNC Ashville, Valparaiso

Newbies this week (at-large in italics): Illinois, Oakland, South Dakota, Winthrop

Bubble boys

Wake Forest (16-12): Pom/RPI: 33/45. vs. RPI top 25: 0-7. vs. RPI top 100: 6-12

Resume peak: Strong non-con SOS (Pom 49). Beat Miami. Solid non-con wins vs. good mid-major teams Charleston, Bucknell. Resume valley: That Miami win is the only one against a team close to being an at-large lock. Swept by fellow ACC bubble team Clemson

Rhode Island (19-9): Pom/RPI: 53/44. vs. RPI top 25: 2-3. vs. RPI top 100: 4-7

Resume peak: Neutral-court win vs. Cincinnati. Picked up must-have win at home vs. VCU on Saturday. Resume valley: Home losses to Fordham, La Salle among five to teams on wrong side of NCAA Tournament picture

Kansas State (17-12): Pom/RPI: 37/68. vs. RPI top 25: 2-4. vs. RPI top 100: 4-11

Resume peak: Elite wins at Baylor, vs. West Virginia. Resume valley: Horrid non-con SOS (Pom 315), with only one win (Colorado State) vs. top 150 teams. Getting churned up by Big 12; just 2-8 in past 10, including 30-point loss at last-place Oklahoma on Saturday

Georgia (17-12): Pom/RPI: 52/56. vs. RPI top 25: 0-5. vs. RPI top 100: 8-11

Resume peak: Solid non-con SOS (Pom 45). Played well on the road vs. SEC’s best — lost in OT at both Florida and Kentucky, by two points at South Carolina. Resume valley: Zero wins vs. at-large locks; best Ws are against Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt (16-13): Pom/RPI: 43/48. vs. RPI top 25: 1-4. vs. RPI top 100: 9-12

Resume peak: Huge road win at Florida. Home wins vs. Iowa State, South Carolina. Nine RPI/Pom top 100 wins. Strong non-con SOS (Pom 30). Resume valley: Only a couple games over .500. Loss at Missouri (RPI 251) could be a crusher

TCU (17-12): Pom/RPI: 40/60. vs. RPI top 25: 0-7. vs. RPI top 100: 5-12

Resume peak: Home wins vs. Iowa State, Illinois State. Resume valley: Big 12 has five at-large locks, TCU is only 1-9 vs. those five (the ISU victory) but 5-1 vs. other conference schools. Bad non-con SOS (Pom 249)

Texas Tech (17-12): Pom/RPI: 35/100. vs. RPI top 25: 2-4. vs. RPI top 100: 5-8

Resume peak: Elite wins vs. West Virginia, Baylor. Six of 11 Big 12 losses by four points or fewer (or in OT). Resume valley: Division I-worst non-con SOS (Pom 351). Harsh reality is, a team with an RPI of 100 isn’t getting an at-large bid

Need a near-miracle finish at this point …

Georgia Tech (16-13): Pom/RPI: 77/95. vs. RPI top 25: 4-4. vs. RPI top 100: 6-11

Shred of hope: Four RPI top-25 wins (North Carolina, Florida State, Notre Dame, VCU)

Indiana (16-13): Pom/RPI: 49/89. vs. RPI top 25: 2-4. vs. RPI top 100: 7-12

Shred of hope: Win vs. Northwestern keeps the light flickering, but still just 3-7 since OG Anunoby was lost for the year to injury

Clemson (14-14): Pom/RPI: 34/61. vs. RPI top 25: 0-7. vs. RPI top 100: 9-13

Shred of hope: Nine RPI top 100 wins. No. 3 overall SOS. More competitive than record suggests; 11 of 14 losses by six or fewer points

Pittsburgh (15-14): Pom/RPI: 72/63. vs. RPI top 25: 2-7. vs. RPI top 100: 6-12

Shred of hope: Wins vs. Virginia, Florida State and Marquette

Tennessee (15-14): Pom/RPI: 55/66. vs. RPI top 25: 1-5. vs. RPI top 100: 8-12

Shred of hope: Home win vs. Kentucky was impressive

Alabama (16-12): Pom/RPI: 67/96. vs. RPI top 25: 0-4. vs. RPI top 100: 4-11

Shred of hope: Wins at South Carolina, Georgia

Mississippi (18-11): Pom/RPI: 76/70. vs. RPI top 25: 0-4. vs. RPI top 100: 4-11

Shred of hope: No bad losses. Good quality-win opportunities in last two regular-season games (at Alabama, vs. South Carolina)

Houston (20-8): Pom/RPI: 38/54. vs. RPI top 25: 0-3. vs. RPI top 100: 3-5

Shred of hope: Decent computer numbers. Need to win at Cincy on Thursday to stay in the mix