So last week at the Memorial my picks were an absolute nightmare. Woodland and An were my only guys to make it through the cut. Shoutout to Patrick Cantlay though on his 2nd PGA Tour victory. A long time coming for him to get a big win after consistently being right there. Similarly the way Bryson got his 2nd PGA Tour victory at the Memorial last year and went on a great run, it would not surprise me to see Cantlay do that. He has a immense talent and getting this big win gets a pretty big monkey off his back. To Canada…

For the first time since 2012, the RBC Canadian Open will be held at Hamilton Golf and Country Club. Scott Piercy was the winner back in 2012 with Dustin Johnson winning this tournament at Glen Abbey last year. Hamilton Golf and Country Club is a pretty tight 6967 yard par 70 with Poa greens. It sports tree lined fairways with penal rough. This will make accurate drivers very important this week. My immediate comp course for this seems to be Harbour Town. To go along with the Harbour Town comp would be the much smaller than average green sizes. Other winners at Hamilton are Jim Furyk (in the field) and Bob Tway. Stats I am looking at this week are SG: Ball Striking as always, Fairways Gained (a stat that measures driving accuracy), Par 4 scoring between 400-450 as 7 holes on this course fit that bill, and SG: Putting on Poa. Players have their preferred putting surfaces and after being on Bentgrass for a few weeks this is something to take into account. I will also be looking at green in regulations as I feel this will turn into a “birdie-fest” as getting someone who keeps putting it on the green and can hopefully catch a hot putter will go a long way. To the important part…

The Degenerate Section

Here are the odds (as per Bovada):

*Yes, there are people bigger than 200/1*

*No, I will not be betting them*

Yes, I understand the Dustin Johnson domination at this event and Canadian ties to the Gretzky’s but I can’t touch him at this number with Pebble next week. DJ will be avenging some demons next week at Pebble and I see this as a tune up and not a spot where he is coming to dominate. Can he come in and dominate? Yes. I just don’t see it as worth it at 6/1. Same idea with Brooks. “Big Game Hunter” Brooks is here to tune up for Pebble after a few weeks off since his PGA Championship win. I don’t think he is here to win. Just like DJ, he can absolutely dominate, but for me it is not worth a bet at that price. Rory is actually very intriguing just due to the price. We are getting Rory’s major price at the Canadian Open. But with the longshot winners we’ve been getting the week before majors, I can’t touch this. I start my card a couple guys down with Matt Kuchar at 18/1. In the midst of an all time season from Kuchar, he missed the cut last week. Something he very rarely does, especially this season. Kuch has the history on comp courses, 4th in Ball Striking (last 36 rounds), 7th in Fairways Gained (last 36 rounds) and 1st on the PGA Tour this year in Greens in Regulation. Kuchar has also not missed consecutive cuts in 8 years and has to be upset with his performance last week at the Memorial. I can see a hungry Kuchar this week looking to pick up win #3 of the season. Next for me is Brandt Snedeker at 40/1. Sneds has a great history on short, “keep it in the fairway” courses. He is a previous winner in Canada and Poa is his preferred putting surface. He is also not afraid of a “birdiefest” after his 59 last year at Wyndham. At this price and the class of player he is, I think we are getting a great number at Sneds. I’m keeping it in the 40/1 range for this next pick and that is going to be Shane Lowry. Lowry just had a great performance at a short, tight track at the Heritage and he is another guy known for getting dialed in the irons and a hot putter. Already went low this year to win at Abu Dhabi and his last two starts on this side of the pond were a T8 at the PGA and a T3 at the Heritage. He also grades out well in that key 400-450 par 4 range as well as GIR. My next play would have been Dufner and that would’ve rounded out my card. However, while writing this I found out he withdrew, so I will be replacing him with 2 longer shots. I will take 2 shots at Jonas Blixt at 90/1 and Mackenzie Hughes at 150/1. Blixt is a guy who can go low, has shown recent form and grades out well in hitting fairways, the key par 4 range and Poa putting. With Hughes, I figured I would take a shot on a Canadian and with his buddy Corey Conners getting his win this year, maybe Hughes wins on his home turf. He also grades out best in the key par 4 category over the past 36 rounds.

Card:

Matt Kuchar at 18/1

Brandt Snedeker at 40/1

Shane Lowry at 40/1

Jonas Blixt at 90/1

Mackenzie Hughes at 150/1