We’re less than a month away from the Oscar nominations now, and we have a clearer picture than ever as to which films will be in the conversation! With the Globes nominations behind us and the guilds beginning to announce theirs, who are the frontrunners for the biggest award of the night?

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+2)

It seems that despite an early release, the conversation has not yet cooled on Tarantino’s latest love letter to Hollywood. It is one of the few frontrunners to earn every nomination it was expected to at SAG and the Globes (where it has a clear path to a Best Picture victory), with both of its actors poised to contend for nominations (if not wins) and Tarantino expected to compete in the Director and Screenplay nominations. It could still suffer an A Star is Born-style downfall come January, but until then I am considering it a top-tier contender in several categories, especially Best Picture.

2. Parasite (+2)

Parasite is off to perhaps the best possible start it could have asked for this awards season. It got both Director and Screenplay at the Globes, and crucially got Best Ensemble at SAG, which no foreign film since Life is Beautiful has managed to do. The only way it could have possibly done any better is if one of its actors (probably Song Kang-ho) got into an acting race…but that could still very well happen come Oscar time, a la Marina De Tavira. We have to start seriously considering Parasite a frontrunner; it’s universally beloved and doesn’t have the anti-Netflix bias working against it. If Once Upon a Time stumbles, I believe this is the film that will swoop in to take its place…hell, maybe it already has.

3. The Irishman (-2)

While The Irishman is certainly still a contender, it has shown subtle signs of weakness, particularly for Robert De Niro in Best Actor (missing twice in a row at Globes and SAG). Other than its awards pedigree, I don’t see this as a universally-beloved film that will be able to win on a preferential ballot. It’s a movie everyone seems to respect, but few really love it and the complaints about its slow pace (and Netflix ties) could hurt it. Sound familiar? That said, it could rebound if it starts winning categories rather than just earning nominations; I think it will have to win Director as well to have a shot, and Marty certainly has that potential, even in such a crowded year.

4. Marriage Story (-2)

After a strong start to the season on the indie circuit, Baumbach’s latest has begun to show some cracks. It missed a Best Director nom at the Globes, and any Oscarologist will tell you that no film has won BP without that since 2005. It also missed Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards…even though its three expected actors got into their respective categories, it seemed like a slam-dunk to reward the whole cast (Alan Alda, Ray Liotta, Julie Hagerty, Merritt Weaver, and more). Will it still be nominated? Absolutely. Will it win? It’s looking far less likely now and will need to notch some more victories before I can consider it a top-tier contender again.

5. Joker (+1)

If you’re still doubting Joker, it’s time to wake up and face the facts. The industry loves this movie, and unlike some of these other films, it has the actors’ branch firmly in its grasp thanks to Phoenix’s mesmerizing performance. Nobody aside from Film Twitter cares about its “controversy”, and with so many guilds recognizing the film, it’s a foregone conclusion that this will make it into the Best Picture category (and many more). The film’s cultural relevance, acclaimed performance and big box office haul make this a lethal cocktail of both Black Panther and Bohemian Rhapsody in terms of odds. I’m not sure how likely a BP win is, but I’m not ruling it out completely. That should tell you how confident I am in its chances.

6. Jojo Rabbit (-1)

Poor Jojo…what’s wrong, little man? After stumbling a little at the Globes, Jojo rebounded decently at SAG with Ensemble and Supporting Actress nominations (though the latter might have benefitted from the Kathy Bates category snafu). It has yet to show signs of being a winner, and Waititi will have to start getting some love in at LEAST Screenplay (but probably Director as well) if it wants to contend for the biggest prize of the night. In any case, SAG all but guaranteed its inclusion in the category, which wasn’t secure before now. Could it creep up the rankings from here?

7. 1917 (+0)

So far, 1917 has done just about what we expected it to: dominate the below-the-line categories and earn Picture/Director nominations, in the vein of Dunkirk. Its one minor hiccup is that we haven’t seen the passion from the acting branch yet; it missed entirely at SAG (even for Stunt Ensemble!) and doesn’t look likely to get any of its actors nominated. I still see it as a nominee, but it will have trouble building momentum unless it goes on a mega-hot streak at the precursors…and that’s a tall order in this stacked field.

8. Ford v Ferrari (+0)

James Mangold’s muscular racing extravaganza is still chugging along at the box office, and Christian Bale continues to surprise in Best Actor categories. It did underperform at the Globes a bit, but to be fair it was in a hyper-crowded Drama category and it got edged out by The Two Popes (which the HFPA apparently adored). The industry really dug this one and I see no reason why it will drop out of the Picture race now, especially with Little Women stumbling and opening the door a bit wider.

9. Bombshell (+0)

Theron and Robbie are looking like permanent fixtures of their respective acting races, and the film’s overperformance at SAG (Kidman and Ensemble got in as well) proves that the acting branch is on board. It didn’t do too hot with the critics’ or industry end-of-year lists (NBR/AFI/etc.), but it’s starting to pick up serious steam in the industry. It’s Vice with a #MeToo angle, and even though it paints Fox News employees as heroes, it tells a compelling story that could really resonate with voters. That said, it’s by far the most vulnerable of the films I currently have predicted for a Picture nomination and I wouldn’t be shocked to see it drop out.

10. Little Women (+0)

Yikes. Little Women had disastrous outings at the Globes and SAG Award, which is extremely troubling but not completely condemning yet. I had an inkling this might happen; early reactions are strong with critics but many industry people found the nonlinear storytelling to be confusing for those unfamiliar with the source material. Besides that, will the Academy really want to reward a story that has been told countless times in the past? If it wasn’t for Greta Gerwig’s good standing, I would have written this off a long time ago. As is, it does remains competitive in Adapted Screenplay and Lead/Supporting Actress, keeping it in the hunt.

11. The Two Popes (+3)

I definitely did not see this film’s overperformance at the Globes coming, but I’m still not comfortable calling it a contender just yet. Hopkins and Pryce will have to both remain in the conversation, and given that they both missed at SAG and face a daunting field in both male categories, they could both get squeezed out. But keep something in mind: the last three Anthony McCarten-penned films (Bohemian Rhapsody, Darkest Hour, The Theory of Everything) resulted in Best Actor wins for their leads! Could this film keep the trend going? Unlikely, but not impossible. I guess this season will show us just how deep Netflix’s pockets are, and how willing they are to go to bat for a film that doesn’t really have a shot at winning when they have two other horses in the race.

12. The Farewell (+0)

The Farewell had an alright showing at the Globes (getting Foreign Language Film and Actress for Awkwafina), but otherwise it hasn’t shown up much. Grandma Zhao Shuzhen has made no impact thus far and the film missed completely at SAG, showing that maybe the passion isn’t there like we thought. In a weaker year this might have stood a shot, but its too-early release and the crowded field means it will probably be on the outside looking in. As I’ve said all along, I’m predicting a lone screenplay nod for Lulu Wang and nothing else, a la The Big Sick.

13. Knives Out (+1)

Knives Out continues to exceed my expectations. It finished in the top 10 with both NBR and AFI and snagged three major nominations at the Golden Globes (Picture, Actor and Actress). That said, it did miss at SAG (even in Ensemble, which many predicted) and we still don’t really know how much the industry loves it. Yeah, critics dug it and it’s doing well at the box office, but it might just be a little too “genre” for AMPAS. I’m still impressed with the run it’s putting together and will have a close eye on its performance over the next month.

14. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-3)

Tom Hanks is still going strong in Supporting Actor, but it’s looking increasingly more like a JLo situation where he is the film’s lone nominee. And even that isn’t guaranteed…I could easily see AMPAS snubbing him again to make room for another performer in a film that actually has legs elsewhere. The film is still worth mentioning because it has game in the Adapted Screenplay category, but it’s very close to dropping out of my rankings completely.

15. Richard Jewell (+3)

Kathy Bates surprised us all with a Globes nomination, and could very well have snuck in at SAG as well if not for a category submission snafu. It’s been a while since Clint Eastwood has been in the Best Picture conversation and I don’t think this will be the film to get him there. The conversation surrounding Olivia Wilde’s character is pretty troubling, and AMPAS might see it as a bad look to reward Eastwood for fudging the details of a real-life journalist’s life to paint her in a bad light. The film also disappointed at the box office, and unless the upcoming holiday brings in a new slew of older audience members, I wouldn’t expect much attention for the big category of the night.

16. Uncut Gems (NR)

The Safdie Brothers’ new thriller made some surprising waves towards the end of the year, showing up big time on the indie circuit and appearing on the NBR and NYFCC shortlists. Adam Sandler continues to threaten a Best Actor nomination, even though he missed at both the Globes and at SAG. He’ll need to regain that fifth slot for the film to stay in the hunt, and it probably needs Screenplay or something else as well. A tall order, but possible.

17. Avengers: Endgame (-4)

Look, Endgame isn’t getting a nomination, but as long as Disney is putting massive money behind it I’ll have to begrudgingly consider it a possibility. Not since Jurassic Park has a film missed Best Picture after breaking the all-time box office record, but times have changed…the industry has shown a general distaste for Marvel and this year is especially crowded. Besides, Joker has the comic book and box office angles covered already. Gee, who woulda thought that Disney’s attempts to paint the film as a prestige drama failed?

18. Pain and Glory (-2)

Antonio Banderas is still hovering on the fringes of Best Actor, and he’ll have to solidify himself in there for the film to have a chance. Almodovar would likely have to sneak into Screenplay (and possibly Director) as well, and I just don’t see that happening. His pedigree cannot be ignored and this is perhaps his most acclaimed film yet, but the timing just didn’t work out this year.

Notable Drop-Outs:

A Hidden Life: I always knew this was a pipe dream, but it seems the ship has officially sailed on Terrence Malick’s latest film. I maintain that it might have had a shot if a big-name actor was in the lead role, but regardless, the film is now dead.

I always knew this was a pipe dream, but it seems the ship has officially sailed on Terrence Malick’s latest film. I maintain that it might have had a shot if a big-name actor was in the lead role, but regardless, the film is now dead. Cats: Is it over yet? Can we stop wondering if this is gonna happen? Stop trying to make it happen, it’s not gonna happen.

Is it over yet? Can we stop wondering if this is gonna happen? Stop trying to make it happen, it’s not gonna happen. Dark Waters: As expected, the film simply premiered too late and failed to distinguish itself enough from the pack.

As expected, the film simply premiered too late and failed to distinguish itself enough from the pack. Hustlers: It couldn’t even muster Globes nominations in weaker Comedy/Musical categories (Constance Wu should’ve been a sure thing). JLo is fine in Supporting Actress, but the dream is dead in other categories.

FINAL DECEMBER PREDICTIONS:

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Parasite The Irishman Marriage Story Joker Jojo Rabbit 1917 Ford v Ferrari Bombshell

What are your Best Picture predictions this year? What films am I over/underrating? I’ll be back just before the Oscar nominations are announced for my final January installment of the power rankings. See you then, and happy prognosticating!

-Austin Daniel

All image rights belong to their respective distributors and AMPAS.

UPCOMING: Portrait of a Lady on Fire | The Two Popes | Bombshell