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Fears among Canadian officials that the U.S. is getting closer to ripping up the North American Free Trade Agreement caused traders to rapidly reassess next week’s Bank of Canada decision.

The market-implied odds of a hike initially slumped to 57 per cent from 77.5 per cent. Then, they spiked above 80 per cent as White House officials denied that President Donald Trump’s position on the matter had changed — only to slide back to 62 per cent. All in little more than an hour. The chances now stand around 75 per cent.

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But don’t let those wild swings fool you: there are signs of complacency in the currency market about what’s in store for the Canadian dollar ahead of the Jan. 17 central bank decision.

Risk reversals for the U.S. dollar relative to its Canadian counterpart for contracts that would cover the meeting next week remain at levels barely above their one-year average even after uncertainty swelled.