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Ukip is on course to win nine of the National Assembly ’s 60 seats in May’s elections amid a growing tide of Euroscepticism in Wales.

The latest Welsh poll, for ITV and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre , has shown projected that Ukip willl take nearly as many seats as Plaid Cymru in May's National Assembly election.

When asked about a potential summer EU referendum, 45% of people in Wales said they would vote to leave - while only 37% said they wanted to stay in.

Labour remains on course to be the dominant party - with 34% of the vote translating into 27 seats.

EU voting intentions in February Welsh Political Barometer (Feb 2016)

Analysis:

Eurosceptic Wales

The poll suggests Euroscepticism in Wales is now dominant.

Since the previous poll done by YouGov for the Wales Governance Centre, the percentage saying they wanted to leave the EU has grown from 42% to 45%.

The Leave campaign now has an eight-point lead in Wales.

Prof Scully cautioned: “Our new poll [fits] in with the general picture of polls across Britain, which have indicated the momentum moving in the direction of Leave in recent weeks. However, we should be cautious before we conclude that Wales is likely to vote necessarily vote against membership of the EU when the referendum eventually comes.

“There is still a long time to go to the vote (though we don’t yet know for sure exactly how long). There have also been substantial differences between the different polling companies in their findings on the EU referendum for several months. Internet polls, such as the Barometer poll, have been consistently finding much higher levels of support than do telephone polls; the latter have all shown Remain to be in a fairly comfortable lead.

“Until the referendum actually occurs, we won’t know which method will prove to be the more accurate.”

Projected National Assembly seats Welsh Political Barometer Poll (Feb 2016)

Labour down but still dominant

The poll of 1,024 people suggest that Labour would lose three seats if the voting intentions are borne out at the polls.

The Conservatives would gain Cardiff North, Plaid Cymru would take Llanelli, and the Liberal Democrats would capture Cardiff Central - all from Labour.

However Carwyn Jones party would remain in a dominant position in the National Assembly with 27 seats.

Professor Roger Scully of the Wales Governance Centre warned that Labour's projected vote share was significantly below where it was five years ago.

He on his blog: “At this point before the 2011 National Assembly election, the most recent poll had put Labour on 45% for the constituency vote and 41% for the list vote; in the following poll they would hit 48% and 45% respectively.

"So Labour are currently running 10 percentage points or more below where they were five years ago, and seemingly heading in the opposite direction.”

Voting intentions for the National Assembly election Welsh Political Barometer Poll (Feb 2016)

Ukip's roar

Nigel Farage’s anti-EU party is on course to stage an earthquake in Assembly politics by winning nine of the 20 regional list seats, the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll suggests.

When people were asked how they intended to vote in the Assembly election constituency ballot, Ukip was the only party showing an increase in support on the last poll in December, up 3% at 18%.

Prof Scully wrote: "The clear gainers in this poll are UKIP. This is, in some respects, very strange: the party has been subject to significant internal divisions recently, particularly in Wales, and has attracted substantial negative publicity.

"For ‘normal’ parties you would expect such developments to generate a loss in public support. But for UKIP this does not appear to be the case.

"Indeed, the opposite is true – their support continues to grow. The party continues to be on course to enter the Assembly in significant numbers after May’s election."

Change from December Welsh Political Barometer Poll (Feb 2016)

Plaid, Tories and Lib Dems slipping

The Conservatives are on course to see their number of seats fall from 14 to 12.

And Plaid Cymru is likely to go down from 11 to 10. The Liberal Democrats could be left with just two AMs instead of five.

This polling will hearten Ukip, which has been hit with reports of internal divisions in recent weeks and controversy about candidate selection.