Last week, potentially the worst possible outcome became a reality. The Independence lost to our local rivals Charleston 1–0, and the Jacks’ losing streak was extended to five in a row, ensuring that the Independence would miss out on hosting a first round USL playoff game.

If traveling for the playoffs wasn’t bad enough, Charlotte will be going to Rochester to face the Rhinos. In our first 2017 meeting at Rochester… well things didn’t go so well. We lost 4–0 and it felt like it might be a LONG season for the Jacks.

Months later and in the midst of #Beatless, we thoroughly handled the Rhinos. That game ended 2–1, and we felt like a monkey was off our back.

Perspective

It’s nearly impossible to take any positives from a 4–0 loss, but I’ll point out a few things that make that game truly an aberration. In that game we started a rookie center back as well as essentially an experimental lineup. Coach Jeffries was still tinkering with who to start at forward, that night it was Yann Ekra, and David Spies started on the wing. The team we fielded that day included numerous players that would later be used as reserves. We were missing three key veteran players that later would be pillars to our #Beatless streak.

After re-watching that game, a few things became apparent. We missed Henry Kalungi, Enzo needed help to threaten defenses, and David Spies (while talented) wasn’t the answer at right midfield.

The positive I’ll take from that dreadful visit? In our second meeting, these issues were resolved. Our best defender Kalungi returned, the duo of Enzo + Jorge was gelling nicely, and David Estrada was indeed the answer at right midfield.

Tough Task

Rochester fields one of the most defensive minded teams in the league: That strategy has helped Tomas Gomez obtain back-to-back Golden Gloves. In home games this year that Gomez has started, they have only allowed an average of nine total shots. If that figure wasn’t impressive enough, only 2.6 of those shots are actually on target.

Tomas Gomez has held his opponents to a 7.9% conversion rate and in 12 games has seven clean sheets while allowing an average of 0.4 goals per game. If Charlotte is to upset Rochester, it won’t be an easy task. Both history and the Rhinos’ defensive gameplan are against them.

But no matter what conventional wisdom might tell you, I believe that we might win… will win, will win.

Recent Form (IGNORE THIS)

Charlotte: L | L | L | L | L

Rochester: L | D | W | W | W

Game Details

What: Rochester Rhinos vs. Charlotte Independence (USL Eastern Conference Quarterfinals)

Where: Capelli Sports Stadium, Rochester, New York

When: 6:05pm

Prediction

Originally, I honestly thought that Charlotte had little to no chance of upsetting Rochester. But after revisiting that 4–0 loss, I think we might be able to play a relaxed game and take down the Rhinos. The issues we had in early in the season were magnified to an alarming rate.

Luckily for Independence supporters, we won’t be fielding that same team. Despite our recent skid we’ve still played to our style and been threatening. Sure we’ve lost five, had a few bad plays, and goal scoring opportunities were missed. However, I don’t believe this streak is indicative of the quality of our team, and I expect that quality to show in the playoffs.

On Talkin’ Jacks this week, I predicted a 1–0 victory for the Rhinos. After further thought I’m flipflopping that prediction.

I’m predicting a 1–0 victory for the Independence.