Forget the conventional wisdom: Ron Paul looks like an emerging front-runner.

In two of the most recent Iowa polls he has shot up 19 and 20 percent - practically tied for the lead with Herman Cain and Mitt Romney.

In New Hampshire he has jumped into a (distant) second place, behind Romney. He has done this largely while the mainstream media ignores him, and debate moderators try to avoid asking him questions.

The conventional wisdom in the media goes like this: Because he is so different from the GOP, he can never attract more than 15 percent of the vote. At the same time his fans are so devoted, no gaffe can end his candidacy. There are dramatic falls or rises, no flip-flops, no gaffes beyond saying what he has always said. And so the media has decided there is no story here.

But now he is breaking through those expectations and looking like a real candidate. How is he doing it?

Jack Hunter, an author and activist, who acts like an ambassador between the Paul campaign and the conservative movement explains it to us this way:

"Part of journalism is delivering the news, you have to tell the truth. But you do it within some sort of narrative and Ron Paul doesn't fit the predetermined narrative. It was assumed that Mitt Romney is the establishment candidate and Michelle Bachman is the Queen of the Tea Party. Where does Ron fit in to that story?

"How does the media decide who is a front-runner? By any conventional standards we judge it by fundraising, poll numbers, and organization. And in all three of those- yeah- Ron Paul is a frontrunner. His fundraising is obviously off the charts good, particularly the nature of it - and organization he's second only to Romney, and in Iowa it is the best. In all the conventional ways - he's performing very well"

It's true. Paul came in second to Michelle Bachman at the Iowa Straw Poll. But Bachmann has almost no money, and her poll numbers have collapsed. Paul has kept up the momentum.

Even more encouraging: Among likely caucus-goers in Iowa who say their decision is final, Paul leads with 32 percent, followed by Romney and Gingrich at 25 and 17 percent, respectively.

"We are probably one of the only campaigns if not the only where our candidate has been to Iowa at least once a week for the last six to eight months, " campaign spokesman Gary Howard told us, "Others who have risen and fallen in the polls, they don't have the organization to sustain their moment in the sun. We are one of the few alternatives that have this in place to sustain."

In fundraising, Paul lags behind only Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. And if you want a sample of volunteer enthusiasm that is powering the Paul campaign in Iowa. Check out the video below.

Does any other Republican candidate attract this many young volunteers?

If you combine his poll support with his organizational advantages, Paul has to be considered a threat in Iowa. If the caucuses were held today, he'd be the safest bet.

And he isn't doing this with magic. He is doing it the way all successful campaigns do it: retail politics, a large donor base, and traditional campaign operations.