Who will win the race for Florida's governor? | Opinion

Jon M. Ausman | Your Turn

The upcoming Democratic gubernatorial primary election features two local residents: former member of Congress Gwen Graham and current Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum.

Also running are Palm Beach County billionaire businessman Jeff Greene, former Mayor of Miami Beach Philip Levine, and Winter Park businessman Chris King.

There are four weeks of campaigning yet to go before ballots are cast on Aug. 28.

Of the 4.7 million registered Democratic voters in Florida, only 1.2 million are likely to vote in the primary. Based on the last Democratic gubernatorial primary, among Democrats 425,000 will vote absentee and another 175,000 will vote early. This means half the voters will cast ballots before primary day.

Likely absentee voters in the Big Bend have already been getting mail-outs from candidates. Twenty three thousand absentee ballots in Leon County alone were mailed out last week.

In July 2018 six polls from six different pollsters were released. These polls focused on likely primary voters, since more than half the state’s registered Democratic voters will not be voting in the primary.

Here is what the polling indicates thus far: About 23 percent of likely Democratic voters are either undecided or have declined to share their decision with a pollster. Candidates who are behind are hoping — and claiming — they are going to get a lion’s share of these undeclared votes. History has predicts this 23 percent will roughly divide among the candidates the same way as those who have declared a position.

Graham has roughly 25 percent of the vote. She is followed by Levine with 19 percent. Greene, who entered the race just recently, has 17 percent. Greene's percentage is rising and poll watching enthusiasts are speculating that he is eating into Levine’s vote.

Gillum is at 11 percent with King sitting at 6 percent. Gillum has received quite a few endorsements from local elected officials around Florida. He is about to find out exactly what local public official endorsements are worth — not much.

Moving eight points in a statewide election with four weeks to go will be difficult. That being said, this could turn out to be a Graham-Greene one-two. Gillum forces have been attacking Graham and her voting record, and that might be good news for Greene.

On the Republican side, eight polls have been conducted in the two-person race for the Republican nomination. The two candidates are member of Congress Ron DeSantis and Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam.

Putnam started out as the front runner and was once the Republican establishment’s choice. Then DeSantis entered the race and received the endorsement of President Donald Trump.

The polls of Republican likely voters suggest DeSantis has 42 percent of the vote to Putnam’s 30 percent, with 28 percent undecided. If the undecideds go the same way as the rest of Republicans, DeSantis will win with more than 55 percent of the vote. Seven of eight polls have DeSantis ahead by a substantial margin.

If the polls are correct then Republican DeSantis will have to go up against Graham or Greene in November.

That race, like every other Florida gubernatorial election, will be a toss-up. Republican candidates won five of five elections over the last 20 years. But Democratic voters are fired up and ready to vote, thanks to the Presidential Twitter in Chief. That means it is possible a Democratic governor will be in office when reapportionment occurs after the 2020 Census.

Jon M. Ausman is the longest serving member of the Democratic National Committee in Florida’s history (1992-2017). He can be reached at ausman@embarqmail.com.