Reasons we can safely say that Trump will lose in a landslide:



1) Trump has consistently been performing like McCain in 08 or worse in the aggregates.



2) Trump has no groundgame, while Clinton has one of the most robust groundgames in US history. This shit WILL move the needle in a way that Polls can't track in their models.



3) There is no reason to believe there are a bunch of "shy Trump voters", but there is plenty of reason to believe that there are a lot of "shy Clinton voters", particularly married women who live in a Trump loving household and/or Trump loving neighborhood.



4) Trump has a chance of causing a spike in minority turnout similar to how David Duke caused such a spike when he ran for Governor in 1991.



5) Demogrphics demographics demographics. There is no reason to believe that white male voters are going to make a higher percentage than they did in 2012, especially when a larger percentage of black women voted in 2012 than white men.



6) Look at the states: Literally the only states that aren't trending similarly to the expected landslide are Ohio and Iowa. Everywhere else has a much smaller republican advantage, straight up flipped to dems, or has a much bigger democratic advantage than in 2008.