Victoria’s Coalition government is on course for a comprehensive defeat in the November state election, which would make it the first one-term government since 1955, according to a new poll.

The Liberal party’s primary vote is just 32%, with a combined Coalition total of 35%, according to Newspoll. This is 10% down on the Coalition’s support in 2010.



On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor is ahead 55% to 45%, meaning that Labor leader Daniel Andrews is set to replace Denis Napthine as premier when Victorians head to the polling booths on 29 November.



For the first time, more Victorians are dissatisfied than satisfied with Napthine’s performance as premier, although he still leads Andrews as preferred leader by 41% to 31%.



The poll, which follows a Herald Sun/Galaxy poll from last week which showed a narrower Labor lead, suggests the opposition hasn’t been hurt by allegations that some of its staffers stole a Fairfax journalist’s dictaphone in order to use its contents to discredit the Coalition.

Labor has been ahead of the Coalition since mid-2012, according to Newspoll. However, the party’s popularity is only slightly higher than the last election, with the Greens showing the most progress – up 5% to 16% in the latest poll.

The past 18 months have been troubling for the Coalition, with Napthine taking the Liberal leadership from Ted Baillieu in March last year. Renegade Liberal MP Geoff Shaw then departed the party, leaving the parliament locked at 43 MPs each, plus the speaker.

Baillieu has announced he will leave parliament at the election, with several leading conservative figures jostling for position to take his prized seat of Hawthorn.

John Roskam, director of libertarian thinktank the Institute of Public Affairs, is considered a contender, telling Fairfax on Sunday that he is “very encouraged by the grassroots support I have received”.

Other contenders include former Carlton Football Club president John Elliott and John Pesutto, Napthine’s legal counsel.

Meanwhile, conservatives are faring better in NSW, in a separate poll released on Monday.

The Coalition leads Labor 55% to 45% on a two-party-preferred basis, a 2% improvement on its position in May, according to the latest Galaxy/Daily Telegraph poll.

Mike Baird’s government holds a healthy polling lead despite a series of corruption scandals that have seen several Liberal MPs stand down.