AP Photo/Lee Jin-man Opinion Why Republicans Should Get Behind a National Popular Vote, Too

Saul Anuzis is former chairman of the Michigan Republican Party and consultant for National Popular Vote. Michael Steele is former chairman of the Republican National Committee.

In the wake of the 2016 election, when Democrats lost the presidential election but won the popular vote for the second time in 20 years, it’s easy to understand why momentum to abolish the Electoral College once again gathered on the left. It’s not so easy to understand, though, why Republicans have become so committed against the idea of a national popular vote in response.

The Denver Post recently reported that Republican Sen. Cory Gardner actually donated $50,000 to an effort to withdraw Colorado via a referendum from the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. The compact is an agreement that state legislatures have voted to join that would pool the electoral votes from among the participating states. Once the 270-vote threshold has been reached between those participating states, they would award all of those votes to whoever wins the popular vote across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Fifteen reliably blue states, plus the District of Columbia, have joined the compact since 2006, but it has not been as popular among Republicans—perhaps because of some kind of partisan loyalty to the Electoral College.


That loyalty is misguided, though. From a practical standpoint, moving to a national popular vote may well be the best way, and perhaps the only way, for Republicans to have a reasonable chance of winning the White House in 2020 and beyond. That’s because, despite President Donald Trump’s widely unexpected 2016 electoral victory, there is no red state advantage in the Electoral College. And things are going to look much, much worse for the GOP’s chances with the Electoral College if red Texas, along with the battleground state of Florida, move to purple or blue in the coming years.

The electoral numbers for the 2000 through 2016 presidential elections illustrate the illusory nature of any perceived red state Electoral College advantage. Over those five elections, Republican candidates received, in total, 1,240 electoral votes—an average of 248, or 22 votes shy of the 270 needed to win the White House. The Democratic candidates received, in total, 1,441 electoral votes—an average of 288, or 18 votes beyond the magic number of 270.

Most political analysts agree that under the present winner-take-all system of awarding electors, no Republican can win the White House without Texas and its 38 electoral votes. That is bad news for Republicans, because Texas appears to be solidly in play in 2020. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) recently told the Washington Post that the chances of Trump taking Texas are “by no means a given.” “The president’s reelection campaign needs to take Texas seriously,” he said. Observers of Texas politics agree. “I think what we saw in the 2018 elections and what we continue to see in the 2020 elections, is a much more competitive state electorally,” Joshua Blank, manager of polling and research for the Texas Politics Project, recently told the Houston Chronicle.

Under the current system, a narrow popular vote loss would deliver all 38 of Texas’ electoral votes to the Democrat in 2020. The result would likely be game over for the GOP‘s chances at the White House.

It’s not just Texas, either. In Florida, Sen. Rick Scott reports that more than 180,000 Puerto Ricans have arrived and registered to vote since the 2017 hurricanes. Previous surveys of Puerto Rican voters in Florida have shown that the overwhelming majority of them have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, and so it’s not a stretch to say that they will probably support Democrats, at least in 2020. If Florida and its 29 electoral votes move from purple to solid blue, the Blue Wall would have 271 votes. And it would be all over for Republicans.

The good news is that under a national popular vote, a Republican could probably survive a narrow popular vote loss in Texas or Florida and still win the presidency, because every GOP vote in those states would still count toward a national popular vote majority.

The same rule applies in Colorado. Under a national popular vote, Colorado can stay blue, as it’s been since 2004, and still contribute enough popular votes to help elect a Republican to the White House. But under the present winner-take-all system, GOP voters in a blue Colorado might just as well stay home for all the difference they will make in determining who becomes president.

Of course, this works in reverse, too. Democrats in West Virginia might as well stay home right now, too. Their votes would count under a national popular vote as well. In West Virginia, as in Colorado, the best candidate would win. But we believe that America is a right-of-center country, and a popular vote would reflect the true preferences of the American people.

Just to be clear: The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact would not abolish the Electoral College. Getting rid of the Electoral College would be a long and cumbersome process requiring a constitutional amendment. The compact would leave the Electoral College in place, recognizing that states already have the authority, under Article 2, Section 1 of the Constitution, to award their electors in any way they see fit.

Trump clearly understands the conservative appeal of a national popular vote, pointing out in a January 2017 interview with ABC News that the new system would require a different, far more expansive strategy than his campaign employed in 2016. “I would’ve won the [2016] popular vote if I was campaigning for the popular vote,” he said. “I would’ve gone to California, where I didn’t go at all. I would’ve gone to New York, where I didn’t campaign at all. I would’ve easily won the popular vote, much easier in my opinion, than winning the Electoral College.”

Plainly, Trump can go toe-to-toe with any Democrat and win the popular vote. He won the 12 battleground states where roughly 95 percent of the 2016 campaign was waged by more than 832,000 votes. In doing so, he boosted turnout in Florida, Michigan and North Carolina by a total of nearly 1.2 million votes.

Republicans can win under a national popular vote. They simply need to get behind it before time runs out.