Internal surveys conducted by the Congress and the BJP show both parties are on a slippery ground in the national capital.

While the Congress is looking at the possibility of winning only 20 seats, the BJP’s internal survey says the party is confident of winning only 10 out of the 70 assembly seats.

dna has copies of both these internal surveys. Despite claiming its stronghold over the urban vote bank across the country, the BJP appears to be losing out in the predominantly urbanised electoral battlefield of Delhi.

In the run-up to the assembly polls scheduled in the capital this year end, an internal assessment of the party, done by ‘Youth4BJP’, presents a dismal picture with certain victory in just 10 of the 70 assembly constituencies. Low on confidence, the party even chose to exclude from assessment the prestigious New Delhi constituency, which has elected Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit three times in a row.

The party, which faced three consecutive electoral defeats, is trying hard to dislodge the 15-year rule of the Dikshit-led Congress government.

The report is prepared by analysing the voting patterns in the last four elections held in the capital — the municipal corporation elections in 2007 and 2012, the assembly election in 2008 and the general elections in 2009.

While doing the assessment, Youth4BJP kept 10 assembly seats under ‘A’ category and 35 seats under ‘B’ category. It found that the BJP, despite its best efforts, would not be able to turn the electoral fortune in its favour in 25 seats.

A senior Delhi BJP leader said the ground situation wasn’t too bright. He felt Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) would take a share of the Congress votes because of the anti-incumbency factor. “And a single vote for AAP is a loss for BJP,” he said.

Another BJP leader said there are some areas where “there’s a marginal difference between sitting Congress MLAs and our leaders”. “We can turn the result in our favour with a little extra effort.”