Each week, Nate Cohn, The Upshot’s elections analyst, based in Washington, and Toni Monkovic, an Upshot editor in New York, discuss the 2016 race and post a lightly edited transcript of their written exchange. This week: Good poll/bad poll; Bernie Sanders’s endorsement; Nevada’s not-so-easy race for Hillary Clinton; and does Mike Pence make sense? But first ...

Toni Some people still assume Donald Trump can’t possibly win. But he certainly has a chance, even if it’s not a huge one. Let’s imagine the election were today. I’ll make a few statements, and you contradict me if I’m wrong and chime in as you like.

Nate O.K.

Toni Donald Trump would be president of the United States if only men voted.

Nate I think that’s true.

[Note: A Pew poll shows Trump with a 49-43 edge with that group in a head-to-head matchup.]

Toni Donald Trump would be president of the United States if only whites voted.