Despite painful consecutive losses at the ballot box and in the courts, advocates for gay marriage are gearing up for a fight they say they can win: a statewide vote on same-sex marriage in 2010. But there are signs next year could be too soon for another fight on this volatile and exhausting issue.

For several reasons, the political climate in 2010 could be even less hospitable than in November, when 52 percent of the state’s voters endorsed Proposition 8, restricting marriage to a man and a woman. Gay men and lesbians have since won the right to marry in several New England states and Iowa, but those victories came from legislative or judicial actions — not initiative elections.

“The turn in 2010 is going to be markedly negative for them,” said Frank Schubert, the Sacramento political consultant who ran the Yes on 8 campaign last year, and who would head a 2010 campaign to uphold Proposition 8.

Schubert predicts at least a third of the 2008 electorate, particularly those young, first-time voters who turned out to vote for Barack Obama, won’t show up at the polls in 2010. “They are not going to show up to vote for Gavin Newsom or Jerry Brown,” he said of two potential Democratic gubernatorial nominees for 2010.

Pointing to a new USA Today/Gallup poll that showed 57 percent of Americans oppose same-sex marriage, Schubert said California voters are fatigued with the issue.

“We just had this debate,” Schubert said. “There is a reaction by voters of, ‘They don’t even listen.’ “

Ready for battle

Still, an overwhelming 69 percent of the members of Equality California — a leading statewide group backing same-sex marriage rights — said in a survey that they want to move forward on a 2010 initiative to overturn Proposition 8, rather than wait until 2012. And advocates point to a new political asset they acquired in last year’s strife over same-sex marriage — the estimated 18,000 gay and lesbian couples who legally wed in California last year before Election Day.

“That there are 18,000 couples now, who are married and are raising families, makes a huge difference,” said Marc Solomon, who led the successful four-year political battle to keep same-sex marriage legal in Massachusetts, and who recently became director of Equality California’s efforts to legalize same-sex marriage here.

“Our opponents try to scare people about what marriage equality means,” he said, “and what we have is the reality of marriage equality.”

The 4-point margin of victory for Proposition 8 was 18 points narrower than the last time voters considered the issue in 2000, suggesting Californians are becoming less hostile to the idea over time. But the political climate in 2010 is not likely to be substantially more favorable to gay marriage than it was in November, when a popular young Democratic presidential nominee pulled large numbers of younger voters — a group more likely to support same-sex marriage than older voters — to the polls.

And when same-sex marriage inevitably returns to the ballot, there will be new obstacles advocates did not face in 2008. Historically, it’s much easier to get Californians to vote “No” on an initiative than to get them to vote affirmatively. Same-sex marriage forces were seeking a “No” vote in 2008, and lost. Next time, California voters will have to vote affirmatively to create rights.

No state has yet voted in a general election to bestow same-sex marriage rights where they did not already exist. Arizona had the first — and to date, only — statewide vote to defeat a proposed ban on same-sex marriage in 2006, but Arizona voters reversed themselves in November and enacted a ban.

Key minority voters

Solomon’s political victories in Massachusetts, where the state Supreme Judicial Court made the Bay State the first to legalize same-sex marriage in 2004, were in the state Legislature. New England states generally lack Western-style initiative government, although a new Maine law legalizing same-sex marriage could be repealed in a statewide referendum in November before it ever takes effect.

“These kind of votes will always be close,” said Betsy Smith, executive director of Equality Maine, which backs same-sex marriage rights. “That’s just a given.”

In California, there are political advantages to an initiative next year over 2012, Equality California told its members in a memo this week. All the major declared Democratic contenders for governor in 2010 back same-sex marriage, and a pro-marriage campaign will not have to compete for fundraising dollars or volunteers with a likely Obama re-election campaign in 2012. State politics also could be in disarray in 2012, after the Legislature and Congress are redistricted following the 2010 census.

Demographics appear to favor the legalization of same-sex marriage, with by far the strongest opposition coming from voters over age 65.

Solomon said minority voters will be a key target for Equality California in the coming months. The group, which sent an appeal to members on Thursday to raise $500,000 in the next 88 days, plans to deploy field directors to 20 counties in Southern California and the Central Valley that produced the largest number of “Yes” votes for Proposition 8.

The process of winning over the 200 Massachusetts legislators is not really different, Solomon said, from changing the minds of some of the 7 million Californians who voted Yes on Proposition 8. It amounts to gay men and lesbians — particularly those who married last year — telling their stories about the importance of marriage.

“People only go one way on this issue — they go toward equality,” Solomon said. “So there is no question in my mind we will prevail. The question is when.”

Contact Mike Swift at 408-271-3648 or mswift@mercurynews.com.