Image: No one is happier about Brexit frustration than Nigel Farage

by Beth Rigby, political editor

"Brexit means Brexit", how can you forget it? It was the tautological slogan Theresa May trotted out for two whole years after the UK voted to leave the EU in order to avoid reigniting the bitter civil war in her party over the manner in which we should depart.

Sure enough, when the prime minister did finally spell out how she wanted to leave the EU at that crunch Chequers summit in July 2018, it was the beginning of the end for Mrs May.

Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson quit cabinet in quick succession as the Tories' EU psychodrama resumed in earnest, culminating in the prime minister being forced to resign after she delayed Brexit not once but twice. It turned out that under Theresa May, Brexit didn't mean Brexit after all.

And here we find ourselves, three years on and still members of the EU. The failure to deliver on that referendum result is eating away at our body politic as voters turn their backs on the established parties in frustration and disgust.


Image: May's slogan of Brexit means Brexit can never be forgotten

No one is happier about this than Nigel Farage. A man whose political career was effectively over when the UK voted to leave the EU in 2016 has been given a new lease of life by the collective incompetence of our political class.

He can once again position himself as the populist who speaks for the "will of the people" against a Westminster elite trying to thwart democracy.

No matter that his victory in the EU elections was matched by a resurgent Remain vote via the Lib Dems, the Greens and the Scottish Nationalist Party. Not matter than only 34% of the population voted (in a general election twice that number comes to the polls).

The victory is his and for that he earns the right to define what Brexit really means: Britain must leave on 31 October, deal or no deal. Failure to do so will bring about a day of reckoning that will see Britain's fading political elite eviscerated.

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Mr Farage is very much hoping that he can start the revolution on Friday by winning the Peterborough by-election - the pollsters think he will.

But the (narrow) victory of Vote Leave in the 2016 referendum doesn't speak to a hard Brexit at all. Rather it speaks to the need for a version of Brexit that at least tries to accommodate both those who wanted to quit the EU - leaving the single market the starting point - while giving those who wanted to remain some reassurance that Britain would still have close economic ties even if the UK is out of the club.

Instead, ideologues on both sides have seized the centre ground and now the choice presented is no deal versus a second referendum (with a view to remain).

But the (narrow) victory of Vote Leave in the 2016 referendum doesn't speak to a hard Brexit at all. Rather it speaks to the need for a version of Brexit that at least tries to accommodate both those who wanted to quit the EU - leaving the single market the starting point - while giving those who wanted to remain some reassurance that Britain would still have close economic ties even if the UK is out of the club.

And those Conservative contenders in the race to replace Mrs May know that going for a hard out on 31 October, with a no deal if necessary, is the is the surest way of unlocking the leadership of the party.

Cue Boris Johnson's pitch to his party on Tuesday night when he insisted the Tories would face "extinction" if the UK remains in the EU beyond Halloween. "We are facing an existential crisis and will not be forgiven if we do not deliver Brexit on October 31."

On that Mr Johnson is right - but for the wrong reason. If the next Conservative prime minister tries to deliver a no-deal Brexit, they risk collapsing the government and triggering a general election likely to give Mr Farage not just the parliamentary seat he has seven times failed to win but potentially dozens more.

The only way Mr Farage loses is if Mrs May's successor secures a deal. A smooth, friendly exit from the EU is this patriot's nightmare. What he's after is maximum chaos. And those who share his world view are not just looking on but trying to help his cause.

His friend President Donald Trump, who had a private audience with Mr Farage at the US ambassador's residence on Tuesday afternoon, openly advocated a no-deal Brexit ahead of his state visit to the UK.

Image: Donald Trump has advocated for no-deal Brexit

The prospect of a weakened EU and isolated UK is a strategic win for a president pursing an America First foreign policy, and the perfect starting point for negotiating a trade deal.

The president and his senior officials are clear what is now not off limits - Britain's agricultural markets. The UK, with more restricted access to its critical EU markets, might find the US harder to resist.

Across the channel, Europe's populists look on. Steve Bannon, the right-wing firebrand and former chief strategist to the US president, told the Sunday Express that a Farage victory in Peterborough would have huge implications for the rest of the world, with fellow travellers such as Italy's Matteo Salvini drawing strength from Mr Farage's success.

Mr Bannon is trying to build a global alliance of populist and far-right politicians to "fightback against the globalists" and Mr Farage is a key cog in that machine.

But what are the chances of a new prime minister being able to untie the Gordian Knot that is Brexit? The parliamentary maths that did for Mrs May hasn't changed. None of the candidates have a Brexit plan that can break the impasse.

Image: Can a new leader untie the Gordian Knot?

There is instead a group who claim they can succeed in renegotiation where Mrs May failed (the Commission of course says no more talking). And another who insist Britain can and will leave with no deal on 31 October, despite being faced with a parliament and speaker that will try to stop it - via a general election if necessary.

But what has changed, and could help an incoming prime minister, is the political backdrop. Mrs May has been deposed by a party now pivoting to a hard Brexit. Mr Farage is becoming a serious electoral threat. His march onto the national stage in London and Brussels threatens to stoke the flames of populism further in Europe.

There is a hostile US president keen to cut a favourable trade deal to put EU-banned agricultural products into Europe's own backyard via Britain.

Many scoff at Conservative candidates proposals to try to renegotiate where Mrs May failed - Matt Hancock and Sajid Javid the latest duo to put forward alternative offers to the backstop - but you can see why the changing backdrop in the UK may give the EU27 pause for thought.

A sensible offer - Mr Hancock is asking to change the political declaration rather than the withdrawal agreement to add in a time-limit (a long one) to the Irish backstop - could at least be given a fair hearing in the EU.

Image: Matteo Salvini would draw strength from a Nigel Farage victory in Peterborough

The alternative - a no deal into a general election - is looking riskier than it did even a month ago given that it could return an even more divided parliament with the Brexit party in harness on the national stage.

And in parliament, aren't the incentives for MPs to try to support a deal rising rapidly too? Those Labour MPs in Leave seats are looking at a leadership who is about to sign up to the Remain cause, while the Conservatives are mulling their impending collapse if they don't deliver Brexit.

The Liberal Democrats, followed by the Brexit Party, are now the two most popular political outfits in the country according to a poll out last week. There is a genuine prospect that dozens of MPs will lose their seats if a general election does come before Brexit. If that doesn't concentrate their minds, I don't know what will.

But a new prime minister should do it on their terms, not those set by Mr Farage. 31 October is just as arbitrary an exit day as 29 March or 12 April. Brexit doesn't have to mean a no deal exit on 31 October. A new prime minister could delay, in order to negotiate their own exit deal or pivot to a no-deal exit if that fails.

A new prime minister and parliament will soon have another chance to approve a Brexit deal. Many MPs in Remain-facing seats will resist, but there are enough Conservative and Labour Leave-backing MPs to get Brexit across the line.

It's time to show the public it is parliament which can deliver the result of the 2016 referendum, not just a populist throwing in rocks from the outside.

Sky Views is a series of comment pieces by Sky News editors and correspondents, published every morning.

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