Manafort trial will test Mueller's Russia investigation and Trump's 'witch hunt' charge Paul Manafort trial will test Trump tactic of painting fine GOP prosecutor Robert Mueller as a political lackey and his Russia probe as a 'witch hunt.'

Harry Litman | Opinion contributor

We are about to see the first test of special counsel Robert Mueller's charges in the Paul Manafort trial that starts Tuesday, and the consequences will be critical not only for Manafort but also for President Donald Trump. If Mueller wins a conviction, and I predict he will, it will severely undercut Trump's contention that the Mueller investigation into Russia's attack on the 2016 election is nothing more than a politically motivated "witch hunt."

The multicount indictment against Manafort, Trump's 2016 campaign manager, alleges two kinds of crimes: 1) hiding from U.S. authorities, including the IRS, millions of dollars in payments for work on behalf of the pro-Russian political party in Ukraine and then-President Viktor Yanukovych; and 2) falsifying applications for loans from banks after Yanukovych was deposed and Manafort's income plunged precipitously, imperiling his extravagant lifestyle.

The Eastern District of Virginia, where the case will be tried, is famous for its fast pace, or "rocket docket." I have tried cases there as a government attorney, and typically the court would move all stages, including jury selection, at breakneck speed. Nevertheless, given the prominence of the case and the likelihood that many potential jurors will have heard of Manafort, it probably will take two days to seat a jury, in which case opening statements would occur Thursday.

Manafort will try to discredit Gates, prosecution

A characteristic failing of many prosecutors is presenting more evidence than necessary, resulting in a plodding and sometimes hard-to-follow narrative. There is no chance Mueller falls prey to such overkill. The prosecution's case will rather be streamlined and fast-paced, with only the detail necessary to wrap everything up at the end.

Many of the witnesses will spend a half hour or less on the stand. They are the bankers, real estate agents and vendors of luxury goods who can attest to Manafort's high-rolling lifestyle and the false content of his tax returns and loan applications.

And based on the road map in the meticulous indictment, Mueller clearly has the goods. As the judge overseeing the case, T.S. Ellis, wrote, "Given the nature of the charges against the defendant and the apparent weight of the evidence against him, (Manafort) faces the very real possibility of spending the rest of his life in prison."

The dramatic centerpiece of the trial will be the testimony of former Manafort deputy (and Trump campaign deputy chair) Rick Gates. Gates agreed in February to plead guilty to sharply reduced false-statement charges and cooperate with the prosecution against Manafort.

He served since at least 2006 as Manafort's right-hand man. Mueller's team will have worked with him intensively over several weeks, and his testimony will be a set piece of damning evidence against his former mentor and boss.

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How will Manafort defend against this blitzkrieg from the prosecution? A few moves are standard and predictable. First, he will try to insinuate where possible that the prosecution was politically motivated, though expect Judge Ellis to tamp down on any such suggestion. Second, he will mount a ferocious cross-examination of Gates, painting him as a lying government stooge.

It has been a mystery for many months why Manafort has steadfastly refused to cooperate with the Mueller probe, given the very high likelihood of conviction. The trial will reveal whether he has ever had any aces up his sleeve. I suspect he does not.

In particular, pay attention to whether Manafort chooses to testify and expose himself to a likely withering cross-examination from the government, or stay seated and limit himself to the argument that the government has not met its burden. If he avoids the stand, it will suggest that he has never had a cogent strategy for winning at trial, and that his resistance to cooperation has been based on other factors — including the hope of a pardon in return for keeping quiet and essentially acquiescing to the conviction.

Verdict will undermine 'witch hunt' refrain

What does all this portend for the growing crisis in the White House, as Mueller and the Department of Justice seem to be moving closer to putting together criminal charges against the president, as well as Donald Trump Jr. and political operative Roger Stone?

Plenty. First, Manafort's jockeying to become Trump's campaign manager — at no compensation — came after the Yanukovych business dried up, and Manafort was scrambling to figure out how to compensate for the loss of millions of dollars in income. And part of the evidence will be Manafort's effort to obtain $16 million in loans by promising a banking executive a role in the Trump campaign. A conviction would bring corrupt and criminal conduct into the dead center of the Trump campaign.

More generally, Trump's schoolboy campaign of launching crass tweet insults — trying to paint Mueller, the finest prosecutor of his generation, as a political lackey — has put him into a zero-sum relationship with the special counsel. The "witch hunt" refrain has been Trump's constant, sole defense to an investigation that has already yielded indictments of 32 individuals and three companies, and five guilty pleas. A decisive conviction at trial will strengthen Mueller and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who oversees the Russia investigation, while making the "witch hunt" claim seem ever weaker and more desperate.

Harry Litman, a former U.S. attorney and deputy assistant attorney general, teaches the Supreme Court as a Political Institution at UCLA Law School. He clerked for Justice Anthony M. Kennedy during the 1988-89 Supreme Court term and worked on Supreme Court and other judicial nominations at the Justice Department. Follow him on Twitter: @harrylitman