Safest Parlay

3-team parlay: Minnesota Vikings (-240) vs. NYG, New Orleans Saints (-180) vs. TB, Los Angeles Chargers (-300) vs. DEN

This is by far the riskiest “safe” play I’ve put together since starting this weekly segment. I was torn between the Saints and Bears as the second team to bet on but I’ll get into why I chose the Saints in a bit.

The Vikings may seem like an asinine pick after their dismal performance against the Bears but I think they will bounce back against the New York Giants. Kirk Cousins has not lived up to his massive contract so far since joining the Vikings, so much so that even Adam Thielen called him out. Daniel Jones fell back to Earth throwing two interceptions against a struggling Washington Redskins team and New York will again be without Saquon Barkley, so facing a talented Vikings team despite their quarterback struggles will be a big challenge. I would stay away from this spread but the Vikings winning outright is a safe bet.

Now, onto why the Saints are a better bet than the Bears. Let me say first that if Mitchell Trubisky was playing, the Bears would be the way to go but the offense stalled in large part when Chase Daniel stepped in and David Montgomery has been a huge disappointment to start the season. The Raiders are coming off an impressive upset against the Colts and games played in London have historically been unpredictable. Meanwhile, Teddy Bridgewater has proven himself a solid fill-in for the injured Drew Brees by leading the Saints to two consecutive upsets. While Bridgewater is hardly a dependable quarterback, New Orleans has proven they can still win without their star quarterback. Tampa Bay did pull off the impressive upset against the Rams but they almost lost another 18-point lead so with the Saints being home, this is one of the safer bets to place in an otherwise tough week.

The Chargers meanwhile have proven they are a competitive team, which the Denver Broncos have yet to do. A home matchup against the Broncos still being led by Joe Flacco for some reason indicates a good win probability.

Riskier Parlay

3-team parlay: Baltimore Ravens (-190) vs. PIT, Houston Texans (-225) vs. ATL, Cleveland Browns (+165) vs. SF

For the first time this season, I have an underdog in my “riskier” section. The Cleveland Browns finally looked like the team most expected them to be against the Ravens in Week 4. While I think Baker Mayfield struggling this season is concerning for the Browns’ longtime future, I have very few doubts he will succeed against the 49ers. If the Browns were at home, this line would likely be switched and it is important to remember San Francisco almost lost to a Mason Rudolph led Pittsburgh Steelers team. Cleveland is a solid team to pull off this upset during prime time.

The Ravens meanwhile are coming off a bad loss to said Browns but Pittsburgh has looked lackluster without Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers have yet to face Lamar Jackson who is proving himself as a legitimate NFL starter and while the Ravens’ defense is struggling, Rudolph makes for the easiest quarterback they have played since Ryan Fitzpatrick and we all saw how that turned out.

The Texans looked absolutely abysmal against the Carolina Panthers who were led by Kyle Allen but at this point, even that offense looks more put together than the Falcons. Atlanta’s rushing game has been non-existent this season and while Houston’s defense has largely ended up in the middle of the road this season, there is still reason to think they can bully around Matt Ryan with their pass rush enough to end up with the win.

Riskiest Parlay

3-team parlay: Jacksonville Jaguars (+160) vs. CAR, Green Bay Packers (+150) vs. DAL, Arizona Cardinals (+145) vs. CIN

Gardner Minshew is without a doubt my favorite storyline to emerge so far this season. He put on an absolute show against the Broncos last week and while I get that Kyle Allen has looked equally as good for the Panthers, I just really don’t get how Jacksonville is an underdog here. While the Panthers pass defense has been surprisingly efficient this season, they rank in the bottom 10 in terms of defending the rush and after Leonard Fournette’s dominating performance last week, he could end up being the difference-maker. If you’re looking for an upset this weekend, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a better opportunity than this one.

The Packers upsetting the Dallas Cowboys is probably my riskiest pick of this entire article. With Davante Adams very much in question to play this week, it will take a lot for Aaron Rodgers to lead Green Bay over Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. However, I don’t think Dallas is as good as people think. Their first three opponents were total cupcakes and even against a Saints team led by a backup QB, once faced with talent, the offense totally fell apart. The Saints proved if you can shut Ezekiel Elliott down and force Prescott to win the game, you have a solid shot at pulling off the upset.

The Cardinals are still looking for their first win of the season and I think if they were playing at home for this, they’d be favored here to finally get it. Arizona’s roster has plenty of holes but Kyler Murray has proven to be talented enough to keep the Cards in competition against a pretty tough start to the season against the Lions, Ravens, Panthers, and Seahawks. Cincinnati meanwhile, is still without A.J. Green and lost John Ross to IR which means an already struggling offense will be further limited. This could be the spot where Arizona finally gets in the win column.