Standing in the office of the Chesterfield County General Registrar near booths set up for absentee voting, Constance L. Tyler has a prediction: Election Day turnout next month could be unlike any midterm election Chesterfield has ever seen.

Based on absentee voting, Tyler, the county’s general registrar and director of elections, says Chesterfield could see turnout levels approaching that of a presidential election. In the 2016 election that sent President Donald Trump to the White House, Chesterfield cast roughly 180,000 votes overall. In a county that features one of the highest-profile races in the state – Republican Congressman Dave Brat versus Democrat Abigail Spanberger in the 7th District – Tyler says Chesterfield’s vote count this year could reach as high as 140,000 on Nov. 6.

“It is definitely up,” Tyler says of early absentee ballots. “If we’re at 6,300 [absentee ballots] now, a couple more weeks we could definitely be over 10,000, closer to 12,000, probably.”

It’s common practice for election officials to use absentee voting and historic poll numbers to get a sense of how many people may show up to vote on Election Day; its estimated that absentee ballots make up somewhere between 3 and 5 percent of total votes cast. With less than two weeks until this year’s election, Tyler says absentee voting in Chesterfield has already surpassed that of an average midterm; roughly 100 voters come to her office every day to cast absentee ballots. The uptick, in fact, has Tyler worried she may not have enough workers to man the polls on Election Day.

Stephen Farnsworth, a professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington, says he expects turnout to be strong for this election, but he’s surprised by Tyler’s assessment. Typically, midterm elections generate about a third of the voter turnout of a presidential election.

“It would be extraordinary if the 2018 turnout was anything near 2016. That doesn’t happen with [midterm] elections in this country,” Farnsworth says.

Chesterfield isn’t alone in seeing a high turnout. Henrico, Richmond and the rest of the state have also seen increases.

“We’re seeing a massive increase since last year, and especially since 2014. In-person and by-mail has really jumped off the charts,” says Mark J. Coakley, Henrico’s general registrar. As of Oct. 18, Coakley said Henrico had seen 1,799 in-person absentee voters. Compared to the same point in time before the elections, Henrico saw 575 in-person voters in 2014 and 923 in-person in 2017. He credits interest in the race to media coverage, especially for the 7th District race, which includes the western half of Henrico.

J. Kirk Showalter, Richmond’s general registrar, says while she didn’t have numbers as of press time, in-person absentee voting is tracking where she expected, but by-mail absentee voting “is way up.” A number of in-person voters have come expecting to see the 7th District race on their ballot in Richmond; prior to the 2016 redistricting, the western end of Richmond was in the district.

“They’re looking for the Brat/Spanberger race on their ballot, or expecting to see it, when they vote absentee,” she says, adding that some have left without voting after realizing they weren’t in the 7th District. “In this area, at least, I’m getting the sense that [the 7th District race] was the big draw.”

The 7th District stretches from Nottoway County in the south to Culpeper up north, and includes much of western Chesterfield. While Chesterfield has two other congressional races on the ballot this year – Republican Corey Stewart is challenging U.S. Sen. Timothy Kaine, a Democrat, and Democratic Rep. Donald McEachin is facing off against Republican Ryan McAdams in the 4th District – the Brat/Spanberger race is the most hotly contested campaign in Central Virginia.

Christopher E. Piper, commissioner of the Virginia Department of Elections, says the state has seen increases in both voter registration and absentee ballots this election. As of Oct. 15, 2014 – the most recent mid-term election – 48,338 absentee ballot applications had been received by the state; as of Oct. 17 of this year, 199,696 had been received. Similarly, in September 2014, the state saw 16,000 voters register; in September 2018, more than 30,000 registered.

“We are seeing an increase in the number of absentee ballots,” Piper says. “You can anticipate turnout on Election Day will be higher in a similar manner.”

Farnsworth says midterm elections are often a reaction to the presidency, and usually benefit the party that doesn’t hold the White House. In 2010, for instance, reaction to the administration of President Barack Obama was strong enough that Republicans flipped control of the U.S. House of Representatives and gained six seats in the U.S. Senate.

Historically, Democrats have been at a disadvantage during midterms; Farnsworth says it’s because voters under the age of 30, African-American and Latino voters – all of whom generally vote Democrat – don’t show up for midterms in the same numbers they do for presidential elections.

Democratic officials are hoping that this year will be different, especially in the race for the House of Representatives. With 58 seats in the balance for this election, data journalism website FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats an 85.7 percent chance of taking back the House as of Oct. 22. Conditions are nearly the reverse for the Senate, with FiveThirtyEight giving Republicans a 77.9 percent chance of maintaining control, even predicting the GOP may gain a seat (Republicans currently have a narrow advantage, 51-47, over Senate Democrats).

The ambitions of both parties are no different in the House 7th District, which represents more than half of Chesterfield. With a polarizing president and a heated race between Brat and Spanberger, Farnsworth says voters on both sides of the aisle are animated this year.

“It’s a really high level of energy this election around the country,” Farnsworth says. “Trump really has really energized a lot of voters, in support or opposition to him this cycle.”

Asked how much the race in the 7th will be a referendum on Trump, versus on Brat, Farnsworth says it’s hard to say.

“People who are really motivated against Trump are probably pretty motivated against Brat, too,” Farnsworth says. “People who are supportive of Trump are probably really supportive of Brat as well.”

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the Sabato’s Crystal Ball election forecast at the University of Virginia, says there are many signs turnout will be strong in this election, but warns against thinking that all this absentee voting will automatically help the challenger in the 7th District race.

“You’d probably think that it would benefit Spanberger, because it would mean she’s activating new voters and they’re coming to support her, but it’s kind of hard to say,” he says. “It may also be that people are becoming more accustomed to absentee voting.”

Justin Jones, campaign communications director for Spanberger, believes all this energy will help his candidate.

“I think it will ultimately benefit our campaign,” Jones says. “With so much going on and the discourse in our politics, people are trying to get out and have their voices heard, and I think our campaign is a natural conduit for it.”

Katey Price, a spokeswoman for Brat’s campaign, sent a statement regarding voter turnout in the district: “Dave Brat has been working hard for the people of the 7th District: from the Republican tax cuts putting money back in the pockets of Virginia families to combatting trafficking and the opioid epidemic ravaging our communities. We’re confident that on November 6th, Virginians will vote to send Dave Brat back to Washington.”

While the election continues to get interesting in the 7th, Farnsworth says its anyone’s guess who will win.

“Both campaigns are going to have to continue to work very hard. It’s close to a 50/50 district this cycle, and that’s yet another reason for both campaigns to ramp up the turnout numbers,” Farnsworth says. “It may be too soon to say how turnout ends up on Election Day, but certainly the early indications are that turnout in 2018 will be greater than that of 2014.”

As for Tyler, she’s trying to make sure she has the tools she needs if election turnout is as high as she expects. She’s already deploying an additional electronic check-in “poll book” at some polling locations and is working to recruit the 50 additional poll workers she’ll need to reach her goal of 990.

She adds that turnout has been on the rise since the 2008 election, and that the 7th District race does seem to be of particular importance to voters.

“There’s a lot of interest in making sure that everybody gets out to vote this year,” she says, with a word of warning: “There may be lines, so just be patient.” ¦

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 6. In Chesterfield, the deadline to request an absentee ballot be mailed to you is Oct. 30. The deadline to vote absentee in person is Saturday, Nov. 3. Visit www.chesterfield.gov/registrar for more information.