House Republicans appear poised to let government operations begin shutting down. GOP's 'touch-the-stove' moment

For the House GOP leadership, this has become known as the “touch-the-stove moment.”

After nearly three years of narrowly avoiding government shutdowns, debt defaults and other fiscal follies, House Republicans appear poised to finally grasp the hot stove-top and allow federal government operations to begin shutting down early Tuesday morning.


It would be the first shutdown since 1996. Tens of thousands of “non-essential” federal workers will immediately be placed on furloughs. National parks will close, passport applications will be delayed, toxic waste sites won’t get cleaned and there may be difficulties processing some government benefits.

( Also on POLITICO: House delays Obamacare as shutdown nears)

Yet U.S. troops will remain at their posts, mail will still get delivered, and federal agencies will open for business on Tuesday, staffed with fewer personnel than usual.

For Speaker John Boehner (Ohio) and 232 House Republicans, the big problem — and big risk — is how a shutdown would be received by the American public and media. If the preponderance of public polling is accurate and House Republicans shoulder the blame for a government closure, they could end up jeopardizing their majority to pick a fight they are destined to lose. While Republicans publicly say that Obamacare should be delayed and defunded, many privately concede this argument was resolved when President Barack Obama trounced Mitt Romney in 2012.

Republicans are making the bet that their constituents hate Obamacare so much they’ll swallow a government shutdown.

( WATCH: Mitt Romney thinks there's a better way to stop Obamacare)

The threat of a shutdown is proving somewhat cathartic for conservative Republicans, many of whom were elected in 2010, promising to do everything they can to kill off Obama’s health care law.

Republicans feel comfortable with the possible political repercussions of shutting down the government. They believe that their effort to delay or defund Obamacare is vital for the economy and personal freedom, and worth risking their House seats over.

“I might be the wrong person to ask on this, because I’m pretty unique in this,” said Rep. Tom Graves (R-Ga.), who led the push to defund the law as part of a short-term government-funding bill. “I’m not concerned about personal impact, I’m more concerned about personal real impact of my constituents and this law. I made a commitment in August I would do everything I could to protect them from it.”

( Government shutdown full coverage)

Graves added: “And that if that has political consequences, then so be it, For me, individually. But I’m going to everything I can for them and that’s probably a unique dynamic here, that maybe [Senate Majority Leader] Harry Reid is underestimating — the resolve of our conference.”

That’s the feeling throughout a broad swath of the House Republican Conference as they voted Saturday night to keep the federal government open until Dec. 15, while delaying the Affordable Care Act and repealing a medical device tax that helped fund the law.

House Republicans also passed a separate bill to keep U.S. troops funded in the case of a shutdown. Senate Democrats are still evaluating how to handle that legislation.

( PHOTOS: 17 times the government has shut down)

Both Obama and Reid — with overwhelming support from House and Senate Democrats — have rejected the Republican proposal. The Senate will vote either late Sunday or Monday to do just that, putting the focus squarely back on Boehner and his fellow House Republicans just hours before a shutdown.

That would leave the House leadership with a brief window to avoid a shutdown. If there’s a broad public outcry or groundswell to avoid a shutdown — which House GOP lawmakers and aides see as unlikely — Boehner and his top lieutenants still have the option to pass a government funding bill without the Obamacare language. However, they would need to turn to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) and the Democrats to do so, and there didn’t appear to be any movement in that direction over weekend.

Many top GOP insiders see a multi-day shutdown as likely, if not unavoidable at this time.

And most Republicans privately acknowledge they’ll get the lion’s share of the blame from the public and press over this stalemate.

Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Texas) said it would be up to voters to decide if a shutdown is a mistake.

“It’s going to be up to the American public to decide if this was a battle worth going to the mat for,” Farenthold said.

Yet Farenthold, like dozens of his House GOP colleagues, said delaying or defunding Obamacare is worth a potential shutdown.

“Listen, our biggest struggle is to get the economy back on track,” Farenthold insisted. “We’ve tried spending cuts. We’ve tried the president’s tax increases… I think the consensus — certainly within my conference — is that Obamacare is the biggest thing in the way of economic growth.”

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), a leading House conservative, said Republicans need to “keep telling the truth” about any potential government shutdown.

“I’ve said it — I don’t know how many times I’ve said it, a lot — this makes sense. We’re funding the government and we’re delaying a law that everyone knows is not ready. I don’t think it will ever be ready, but it’s not ready now.”

Jordan seemed convinced that his leadership has shown that they have the fortitude to withstand a shutdown.

“I think they understand the same thing I just explained to you, and they’re willing to make the case as they’re willing to make the case as evidenced by the bills over the last two weeks,” Jordan said. “We’re making the argument. It’s a simple fairness argument.”

Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), speaking briefly to POLITICO, asserted that Reid and Senate Democrats should be blamed for any shutdown debacle.

“It’s up to the Senate Democrats,” Cantor insisted. “Are they on the side of the working people of this country? Are they going to be on the side of big business and special interests who have all gotten the delay of [the employer mandate] of Obamcare.”

Cantor added: “It is up to them, especially the red state Democrats. Why don’t you take a look at them and where they’ll vote because they’ll have to answer to their constituents?”

Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.) raised another potential snag for House Republicans, one some members may not have realized yet. If there is a government shutdown, Congress will have to adopt a funding bill to restart all shuttered government operations. That gives Obama and the Democrats additional leverage.

“I think the answer is ‘No,’ we’re not ready because I’m convinced that once the government shuts down, you have to have Barack Obama’s permission as it were, you need [Democrats’] help to start it back up again,” Franks admitted. “And if they think that the country is blaming Republicans, they will not hesitate to keep it shut down as long as possible.”

A shutdown, however, could help cool the partisan temperature within House GOP ranks. Hard-line conservatives, buoyed by their tea party supporters back home, have pined for a climactic face-off with Obama and the Democrats. Some say that they need a crisis to force Obama to negotiate — Democrats laugh at this contention. Now they could be getting exactly what they asked for, and party leaders and senior aides are convinced they won’t like it when they do.

“More tears have been shed over prayers that were answered than those denied,” joked a senior House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “They’ve wanted it. Now we’ll see how they deal with it.”