FINANCIAL ICEBERG

Always consider hidden risks

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CHARTS

US Retail Sales : Very Soft Indeed !

( From ICSC, DShort, NewsToUse, Global Economic Intersection, Calafia Beach Pundit, CNBC, FRED )

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​​Just when we thought we may finally get one decent economic data point which even we could get excited about, we decided to look at the Non-Seasonally Adjusted February retail sales data. After all the $4.4 billion seasonal increase in headline retail sales from January was the highest ever (in absolute terms).Turns out our curiosity was an enthusiasm-dowsing mistake, as a number which on the surface looked good, was hardly validated by the Not-Seasonally Adjusted number, which plunged by $1.3 billion. How does this February sequential change compare to previous years? See the charts below and decide for yourselves if the massive NSA plunge in February 2013 merits the best seasonally adjusted retail sales increase in history.



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So in summary we have ;

•The non-adjusted retail sales fell 1.1% from January, while the adjusted sales rose by 1.1%. Interesting.

•The non-adjusted retail sales rose only 1.2% over last year, but the adjusted retail sales rose by 4.5% over last February 2012

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And in Sesonally adjusted terms :​ US Retail sales rose by $4.4 billion in February. The major changes were:

•Gasoline – $2.3 billion

•Auto sales – $ 0.9 billion

•Electronic stores – $0.0 billion

•Grocery stores – $0.3 billion





And to show the obvious, if we take the Non Seasonally Adjusted year-over-year​​ graph ( see graph above ), we can honestly observe that US Retail Sales are not growing since beginning of 2012 ! Welcome to CREATIVE SEASONALS



Retail Sales

February 2013 ​​​ Seasonaly Adjusted Non Seasonaly Adjusted



​​month-over-month % +1.1% -1.1%

​year-over-year % +4.5% +1.2%



US Retail and Food Services Sales $ ( Seasonally Adjudted / Blue Line )

​US Retail and Food Services Sales $ ( Non - Seasonally Adjudted / Red Line )



US Retail and Food Services Sales $ Year-Over-Year ( Seasonally Adjudted / Blue Line )

​US Retail and Food Services Sales $ Year-Over-Year ( Non - Seasonally Adjudted / Red Line )

And now below the table to overview th difference between the seasonally adjusted data and the non adjusted data...

Conclusion



​​So the non seasonally adjusted ( NSA ) retail sales year-over-year in february was +1.2%. If we take into account the NSA inflation rate year-over-year at +1.6%, we obtained a negative real retail sales of 0.4%... Creative Seasonals let us believe of a strong recovery....

​ It is simply not true yet...



And it seems more than confirmed by the ICSC Weekly Chain sales data... And SP500 making new highs ; something has to give...​​

US Unreal Retail Sales : Creative Seasonals

The Situation



​​ Lately, two economic releases is putting a big question mark about the strenght of the US Consumer. The first was published on march 14 ( US Retail Sales from the BLS ) and the other yesterday ( ICSC Weekly US Chain Store Sales ). And both were quite weak as we will discover in details below...

The ICSC weekly U.S. retail chain store sales index

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​​The ICSC weekly U.S. retail chain store sales index is a joint publication between ICSC and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. It measures nominal same-store sales, excluding restaurant and vehicle demand, and represents about 75 retail chain stores.





Index Level

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The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs released the following seasonally adjusted weekly data on U.S. chain store retail sales for the week ending march 16.



ICSC Research said it expects March same-store sales to rise between 5.0 and 5.5 percent excluding drug store sales, due partly to an earlier Easter holiday this year but in fact weekly chain store sales dropped 1.7% last week. The 4-week moving average rose some more, however, but the Y/Y gain hit its lowest point since March 2010 at +1.7% as shown by the graphs below...

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ICSC Index

ICSC Index Year-Over-Year %