michaelhasanalias Profile Joined May 2010 Korea (South) 1231 Posts Last Edited: 2011-09-14 06:16:30 #1 ZvZ: A GSL History of the Blind 15 Hatch



Introduction

I labeled this as [D] because I felt it should go in the strategy forum, although I guess this may read more as a blog. I hope for this to turn into a discussion on the nature of blind 15 hatchery opener and its true viability in the mirror matchup. Anyway, over the GSL free weekend I decided to watch and take some notes on pretty much every zvz that has been played from GSL open season 1 up until the most recent up/down matches in GSL August. What follows is what I consider to be the most interesting part of my notes, which revolves around the blind 15 hatch opener in ZvZ. (Luckily for you guys, most of the games I'll be talking about are available as free VOD on gomtv.net.)



My own personal belief is that opening with a blind 15 hatchery is either extremely risky or downright silly. Watching the zvz matchup evolve over some hours of reviewing GSL vods really showed me some interesting insights, and I'll share them now as I chronicle the path of ZvZ and blind 15 hatch openers:



* - requires gomtv season ticket





GSL Open Season 1





With a map pool that included Steppes of War, Delta Quadrant, and featuring close positions on Lost Temple and Metalopolis, really the only times one would even consider going 15 hatchery in zvz here would be on Kulas Ravine, Scrap Station or when you have OL position from close air on Metal or LT. Unfortunately, there was only one such set of ZvZ this season and it featured none of those maps.



At this time in ZvZ, the maps were so small with such open naturals and short rush distances that going 15 hatchery was a rare and extremely greedy opener.





GSL Open Season 2





Ro16 IMNesTea vs oGsTheWind - G1 - Blistering Sands - link

This is the first ZvZ match that IMNestea played in the GSL and where the legend began with him having 100% win rate vs zerg (at least for some months). Blistering Sands, a 2 player map with destructible rocks at the back door is an extremely risky map to 15 hatch on. Yet NesTea bravely decides to do it anyway, and without drone scouting.



Unfortunately for him, TheWind opted for a 13gas/12pool baneling semi-all-in. Now, if you don't remember or never watched this game, you might think "now how could NesTea have possibly won this game, on this map, against that build?" The short answer is he didn't. He lost half of his drones, had no defensive units up against a solitary baneling that was about to seal the game. TheWind, knowing NesTea had roaches on the way but not sure how far along the eggs were, pulled his single baneling back to meet up with 4 additional lings, and by the time he returned, the roaches had spawned, sniped the baneling, and NesTea went from basically a build order loss to securing a mid-game win with far superior mechanics.





GSL Open Season 3





Ro64 TSLFruitDealer vs Tosyad - G2 - Jungle Basin - link*

In this, just the second ZvZ featuring blind 15 hatchery opener, we get to see another game greatly supporting its case as a standard in the matchup. As the maps get larger, it's seeming to be a safer opening. Jungle Basin, a recent addition to GSL from the previous season, is unique from other maps in the pool in that its natural is actually located behind, rather than in front of, the main base. This makes 15 hatchery both extremely tempting and very difficult to punish.



Tosyad, an obscure and teamless zerg player who eeked through the qualifiers, suffered a pretty depressing loss in game 1 of the series when he threw away a huge advantage by over-committing to his ling/bling aggression seemed to have lost steam as the match wore on. He opts to do an 8pool on the map with the longest main to main rush distance at the time against FruitDealer's 15 hatchery, tucked away behind his own main.



What follows is honestly a pretty pitiful ling engagement by Tosyad, although it seemed at the time that it was FruitDealer's godlike defense that led him to surviving what otherwise would have been a sure defeat. Artosis is heard saying "This is the best drone micro in the world."



Even on paper, 18 drones vs 6+2 lings is not something that should really scare anyone. Upon denying this aggression, FruitDealer cruises to an easy 2-0 and it starts to look like blind 15 hatchery might be safe versus just about anything on non-shoebox maps.





Ro32 IMNesTea vs FnaticSEn - G1 - Lost Temple - link

In its third showcase in the GSL, we see competing blind 15 hatch openers on what turns out to be close positions on Lost Temple. What follows is more or less a mirror game in the opener, although it's notable because of what Artosis can be quoted for saying near the start of this game: "Only early pool baneling is bad if you can micro drones." And up until this point, at least judging from the very brief history of the GSL, he seemed to be right.





GSL January





Ro16 IMNestea vs oGsZenio - G1 - Xel'Naga Caverns - link

In this game, we see blind 15 hatchery vs 14gas/14pool showcased for the first time in the GSL. Artosis explains to the masses how these two builds differ and how 15 hatch offers superior larva production, so if unpunished, it can almost turn into a free win on a map like Xel'Naga.



Zenio opts to followup with very hard ling/bling aggression, and NesTea's speedlings into fast roaches are able to hold it off and force the mid-game transitions. From here, we just see a basic ZvZ roach war where NesTea shows off why he's the best Zerg player in the world.



At this point, it's beginning to become clear why blind 15 hatchery is becoming a standard for many. It relies on mechanics vs 14/14, micro vs early pool, and if you're good enough and the map isn't very small, it seems that you can win versus anything the opponent can do...





GSL March





Up/Down IMNesTea vs LeenockfOu - G1 - Xel'Naga Caverns - link

Here Artosis does a great job explaining the state of ZvZ in the opener of game 1, explaining how most feel that it's a Rock-Scissors-Paper matchup between Hatch first, 14/14 and 9 pool.



Both players open similarly until NesTea goes for roaches while Leenock goes for banelings. The rest is unrelated so I'll head right into...





[Up/Down IMNesTea vs LeenockfOu - G2 - Crossfire - link

Once again we have competing, blind 15 hatch openers. But there's one key difference in this game--NesTea hatches at an open gold base. This game is, at least in my opinion, the first of several great examples of why failing to drone scout can and will cost you the game.



NesTea's decision to take the gold was essentially a build order win because Leenock doesn't drone scout. In fact, by relying on his overlord to spot NesTea's natural, he mistakenly assumes that NesTea is doing some 1-base build, and proceeds to overreact defensively and fall out of the game very quickly.



Leenock scouted the gold expansion around 5:00 into the game, and spent 4 banelings needlessly as well as traded zerglings to snipe this expansion only after two full injection cycles. NesTea still got all the larva he needed from it, used all of them, and baited a tremendous overreaction from Leenock who put himself in a terrible position by feeling that his only option was to force that gold to immediately die. He wasted banelings and couldn't drone at all, and then was ultimately forced to drone as NesTea followed up with an all-in.





GSL World Championship Seoul (April)



KORvWORLD FXOmOOnGLade vs STJuly - Metalopolis - link

July opens blind 15 hatch 14 pool in cross positions against mOONglade's 14/14 bling pressure. July drops a fast warren but has a late gas and so is barely able to defend in time with roaches and zerglings. From here the game transitions into a typical July game (re: slugfest).



KORvWORLD mTwDimaga vs STJuly - Shakuras Plateau - link

This game is special among all of these I mention because it actually doesn't feature a blind 15 hatchery. I include it because in re-watching it I noticed something very important--Dimaga actually intended to open 15 hatchery, but he drone scouted on 9 supply and saw July's 10 pool. He then responds by canceling his 14th drone, and going 13 pool 12 gas. I firmly believe Dimaga would have been hard-pressed to survive against July's 10 pool pressure had he not drone scouted and responded accordingly.



The rest of the game devolves into reactionary ling/bling wars but is a great example of an aborted 15 hatchery open where drone scouting really did make the difference in the outcome. It should also be noted that they spawned close positions (top left and bottom right) which allowed Dimaga to scout the 10 pool before having to 15 hatch by 9 scouting. Had they spawned long cross positions (bottom left and top right), Dimaga's scout would likely not have made it there in time, and he would have had to open 14 pool, making his ling defense more difficult.



KORvWORLD mTwDimaga vs IMNesTea - Terminus RE - link

Terminus was added the previous month to the GSL map pool partly in response to the number of all-ins. The hope was that in adding such an obviously macro-oriented map, that cheese would be heavily disfavored. I mention this as a foreshadow to a future game, but this is the first time the map is showcased in GSL ZvZ.



Dimaga drone scouts on 9 and opts for 16 hatch 16 pool opener. Despite sending a drone scout out at 1:00 game time, he doesn't find NesTea's natural expansion until 2:30, 10 seconds after he hatches. NesTea opens with a blind 15 hatchery, and what follows is a pretty standard hatch v hatch ZvZ.



mTwDimaga vs IMNesTea - G2 - Xel'Naga Caverns - link

This game, NesTea's first GSL loss, marks the beginning of a very key shift in blind 15 hatchery as an opener. Dimaga's build is very crude, 10 pool with 6 lings and 8 drones, along with an offensive spine crawler.



Now in this game NesTea had some pretty awful micro by any current standards, and it's a bit unfortunate because between Dimaga's execution and NesTea's poor micro really mask the power of the 10 pool against 15 hatchery. But it's also important to note that at this point in SC2, zergs weren't very practiced in either executing or defending 10 pool against 15 hatchery.





mTwDimaga vs IMNesTea - G3 - Terminus RE - link

Both players opt for blind 15 hatchery in cross positions in this game, and honestly if you have the chance I recommend watching this game if you haven't seen it. While not germane to this thread, it's one of the best standard ZvZs the GSL has seen, with nearly flawless execution from Dimaga and NesTea.





GSL May





Ro32 IMLosirA vs ZeNEXKyrix - G1 - Metalopolis - link*

On its face, this match is probably the strongest support for the blind 15 hatchery opening. Around this time, 15 hatch was becoming very popular as the opening of choice in ZvZ in just about every situation.



In cross positions on Metalopolis, and without the fear of close rush distances anymore, LosirA opts to open with a blind 15 hatchery. In typical Kyrix style, he drops an 8 pool and promptly sends all his drones with the initial 6 lings. Artosis is quoted as saying "Losira's dead 100%" and instinctively so. If an early pool with lings is dangerous, surely pulling every single drone would maximize dps and be the most difficult possible all-in to hold.



LosirA features some godlike micro and is somehow able to hold. Kyrix chases around the drones and never really has a chance to engage as they run off creep and all over the place. The lings come out, LosirA has more stuff, the engagement happens, the crowd goes wild, and with Kyrix suddenly having no drones, abruptly ends. Unfortunately for LosirA though, he'd need to pull the tricks out a second time some minutes later.





Ro32 IMLosirA vs ZeNEXKyrix - G2 - Crevasse - link*

Seemingly baffled by LosirA's other-worldly all-in defense, and not to be denied, Kyrix opts for exactly the same opening. Meanwhile, LosirA has no qualms about blindly opening 15 hatchery on Crevasse, an even larger map than Metalopolis and featuring a natural located behind the main.



This time, however, Kyrix decides to focus the spawning pool, giving LosirA time to continue mining, take free potshots on the drones/lings (killing half of Kyrix's workers), and have plenty of time for his own lings to spawn. The pool dies, but with broodlings, zerglings, and drones in superior numbers, LosirA is able to finish off Kyrix's battered force for a pretty easy win.



This marks the third time that blind 15 hatchery has held vs an 8 pool, twice with all drones. The conclusion is seemingly inescapable--blind 15 hatchery is safe vs early pool with good micro.





Ro32 TSLFruitDealer vs CheckPrime - G1 - Xel'Naga Caverns - link*

Just two days after LosirA's two miracle defenses, blind 15 hatchery seems like the opener of choice among pros now. In this game FruitDealer opts for it, while Check takes the more conservative 14/14 route. What follows is more or less an ordinary game, and FruitDealer is able to secure a win.





Ro16 TSLFruitDealer vs IMNesTea - G1 - Terminus RE - link

At least up to this point in the GSL, I feel like this set marks the most compelling evidence for the susceptibility of the blind 15 hatchery opener. Recalling the series in the previous month's World Championship, NesTea opts to open with a blind 15 hatchery on the largest, most macro-friendly map in the pool. Meanwhile, FruitDealer, out of practice and not interested in playing a long macro game against the new king of zerg, goes for an 8 pool + drone scout.



NesTea again shows some indecision and generally poor response to a build that is seemingly less aggressive than Kyrix's. In fact, while the drones and lings dance around in NesTea's main, FruitDealer can be seen actually droning behind it. He hadn't intended to force a quick end to the game, but a misstep by NesTea turns what should have been a few drone kills into crippling damage. He miffed an opportunity to surround and finish off a building spinecrawler which finished and ultimately killed several of his drones.



The game goes on a while longer, but this loss ultimately gets chalked up to a poor micro defense.





Ro16 TSLFruitDealer vs IMNesTea - G2 - Dual Sight - link

NesTea, coming off only his third GSL ZvZ loss and actively trying to defend his crown as the best zerg in the world introduces an improved version of Dimaga's 10 pool ling/drone all-in that gave him his first GSL loss.



Proxying a spine crawler puts the nail in the coffin this game, with FruitDealer unable to delay by either running drones off creep or by engaging in drone dancing (due to NesTea's superior numbers). Further, NesTea, with four drones at home, can continuously produce zerglings to reinforce this push, meaning that every 15 seconds, a new zergling pair will add to his numbers.



In this game, we see the first of what will ultimately prove to be a complete build order counter to blind 15 hatchery--10 poo, double extractor trick into drone, 12 overlord, drone scout. Upon scouting the 15 hatch, send lings and 8/12 drones. This combination of 8 lings and 8 drones is quite simply not possible to defend off of blind 15 hatchery with just 16 drones and an incomplete pool.





Ro16 TSLFruitDealer vs IMNesTea - G3 - Metalopolis - link

After securing complimentary early pool victories over blind 15 hatch in games 1 and 2, both FruitDealer and NesTea opt to blind 15 hatch in what is otherwise a standard showcase of mirror openers in a mirror matchup.





GSL Super Tournament (June)





Ro64 SlayerSMin vs STJuly - G1/G2 - Crevasse/Terminus RE - link

This match doesn't contribute anything to this discussion other than that the first two games showcase both players opening with a blind 15 hatchery. It's also apparent that July's understanding of SC2, after only recently switching to SC2 from BW a few months earlier,is not very strong yet.





Ro64 oGsCezanne vs IMNesTea - G1 - Metalopolis - link

For the second time, NesTea showcases his improved version of Dimaga's 10 pool drone all-in. This game deserves special mention because Cezanne actually drone scouts when he lays down the 15 hatchery, so it's not blind. Cezanne arrives at NesTea's base at 2:30 in time to see a completed pool and eggs in production. He immediately cancels his hatchery and drops a spawning pool.



Had it not been for a complete lack of micro by NesTea on his initial 6 lings, Cezanne would have been hard pressed to not come away crippled from this attack. However, NesTea's 7th and 8 lings were able to pick off a few weakened drones while forcing Cezanne to make more lings than he wanted, allowing NesTea to drone behind the attack and stay comfortably ahead all game. His speed was faster, he had more drones, and double queens protecting his ramp from all-in by 5:00 game time.



Following up on this opener, NesTea secures and maintains a hefty advantage and uses superior mechanics and execution to double Cezanne's roach count for the ultimate mid-game engagement. In this game we finally get to see the overwhelming power of this economic 10pool opener against 15 hatchery in a macro game.



Ro64 oGsCezanne vs IMNesTea - G2 - Tal'Darim Altar - link*

NesTea and Cezanne both open with a blind 15 hatchery and basically mirror each other until the mid-game, whereupon NesTea opts for a Spire and Cezanne goes for a roach/hydra/infestor timing. He's able to nydus into NesTea's main and deliver NesTea his first non-early game ZvZ loss.





GSL July



Ro32 IMNesTea vs STJuly - G1 - Crevasse - link*

This game features a somewhat uncharacteristic 14/14 opener by NesTea against a blind 15 hatch by July. What follows is nothing too out of the ordinary until the late game, and if you have time I recommend watching this game if you like hot Ultralisk on Ultralisk action.





Ro8 IMNesTea vs ZeNEXCoca - G1 - Dual Sight - link

For the second time, NesTea exploits the blind 15 hatchery opener by hatching at an open gold expansion. As did Leenock in GSL March on Crossfire, Coca relied on his first Overlord to see no hatchery at the natural and mistakenly assumed Nestea was doing some kind of one-base all-in. He overreacted while NesTea comfortably droned and played defensively, securing what was basically a free win. As was the case against Leenock, the Coca's failure to scout the base of NesTea resulted in basically a build order loss.





Ro8 IMNesTea vs ZeNEXCoca - G3 - Bel'Shir Beach - link*

Fearing an all-in, NesTea opted for an extremely conservative game 2 opener and eeked out a clean victory. But in game 3, he opts for a blind 15 hatchery against Coca's 14/14. What follows is nothing too out of the ordinary, but if you're looking for a game to watch that showcases hatch first vs 14/14, I recommend checking out this game when you have time.





Finals IMNesTea vs IMLosirA - G1 - Bel'Shir Beach - link

This entire match is an educational showcase of blind 15 hatch. In game 1, both players open with blind 15 hatch, and what follows is probably the best ZvZ game to date in the GSL.





Finals IMNesTea vs IMLosirA - G2 - Dual Sight - link*

For the first time, we see what happens when NesTea's economic 10 pool stacks up against the tried-and-true 14/14. Upon seeing no hatchery at LosirA's natural with his 12 drone scout, NesTea transitions into what ends up being a highly aggressive but ultimately macro-oriented game. If you are curious just how well economic 10 pool fares vs 14/14, this is the best GSL game available.



NesTea has to rely on some solid mechanics to make up for LosirA's much earlier speed, and must stay one-basing for longer without any map control. Following up on an aggressive speedling timing to help secure his own natural expansion, NesTea responds with a roach wall that effectively nullifies LosirA's intended baneling counterattack, and from there the game turns into a mid-game slug-fest.





Finals IMNesTea vs IMLosirA - G3 - Tal'Darim Altar - link*

Both players opt for blind 15 hatch openers and NesTea shows the mid-game mutalisk contain he expects to become the future of ZvZ.





Finals IMNesTea vs IMLosirA - G4 - Xel'Naga Fortress - link*

Down 0-3, LosirA opts to open blind 15 hatchery. Meanwhile, NesTea, for the second time in the finals, opens with his economic 10 pool double extractor trick. Upon scouting LosirA's hatchery, he immediately sends 8/12 drones and 8 lings, knowing full-well that he has won the game from the moment he leaves his base.



Artosis mistakenly thinks that this is the same or very similar to the 8 pool drone all-in that LosirA saw twice versus Kyrix in GSL May, holding both times. As the drama unfolds, LosirA's drones, unable to delay or openly engage, are picked apart to seal NesTea's undefeated run to his third GSL Championship.





GSL August





Ro32 IMNesTea vs ZeNEXKyrix - G1 - Antiga Shipyard - link

NesTea opens with a blind 15 hatchery to Kyrix's 14/14. What follows is a nice example of NesTea's new mutalisk style mid-game in ZvZ.





Code A Ro16 CheckPrime vs MVPSniper - G1 - Daybreak - link

Sniper opens with a blind 15 hatch on the newest macro-favored GSL map addition. Unbeknownst to him, Check opens with 10 pool baneling, and despite his best efforts to snap defeat from the jaws of victory, Check is able to follow up with a second, crippling attack, ultimately securing what should have been almost a build order win.





Up/Down IMLosirA vs ZeNEXKyrix - Tal'Darim Altar - link*

LosirA opts for blind 15 hatch against Kyrix's safer 14/14 speedling expand.





Up/Down IMLosirA vs CheckPrime - G1 - Daybreak - link*

Both players opt for blind 15 hatchery in what turns into a very highly recommended macro game.





Up/Down IMLosirA vs CheckPrime - G2 - Antiga Shipyard - link*

LosirA opens with a blind 15 hatchery while CheckPrime opts for 10 pool baneling. Unlike Check's Code A Ro16 G1 vs Sniper, he doesn't bungle his banelings, so despite LosirA going for the most conservative variant of 15 hatch by following up with 14/14 gas pool, he meets a very swift end and falls without much resistance.





Up/Down IMLosirA vs CheckPrime - G3 - Metalopolis - link*

Despite suffering almost a build order loss against Check in their first tiebreak match, LosirA again opens with a blind 15 hatchery. Check opts for a 15gas/14pool and LosirA flips on boss mode to handily outplay Check to conclude a record-setting double-playoff Up/Down series featuring 15 sets (as opposed to the standard 7).





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Some Relevant GSL Statistics

IMNesTea

non15 Hatch vs. blind 15 Hatch: 6-0 (leenock, fruitdealer, cezanne, july, coca, losira WIN)

blind 15 Hatch vs non15 Hatch: 4-2* (thewind*, dimaga, zenio, kyrix WIN; dimaga, fruitdealer LOSS)

blind 15 Hatch vs blind 15 Hatch: 5-2 (sen, leenock, coca, fruitdealer, losira WIN; dimaga, cezanne LOSS)

with cheese: 6-2* (leenock, fruitdealer, cezanne, coca, losira, thewind* WIN, dimaga, fruitdealer LOSS)

*The game vs oGsTheWind almost certainly should have been a loss.







Overall ZvZ

blind 15 Hatch vs non15 Hatch 11-10

blind 15 Hatch vs 14/14 5-1 (1-0 vs 15/14)

blind 15 Hatch vs 10 pool (any) 0-6



List of games with hatch first and drone scout:

- cezanne v nestea 13 scout 15h v 10p 2ET (doesn't see pool until hatch is down)

- dimaga v july 9 scout 13p/12g v 10 pool (scouts 10pool, cancels 14th drone, intended but aborted 15h)

- dimaga v nestea 9 scout 16h v 15h (doesn't see 15h before hatching)







List of games featuring blind 15 hatch opener:

15h win (vs non 15h)

- july vs moonglade 14/14 baneling

- nestea vs dimaga 9scout 16hatch 16 pool (scout doesnt find 15hatch until after 16hatch)

-nestea vs thewind* 13/12 baneling

-fruitdealer vs tosyad 8pool 8lings

-nestea vs zenio 14/14

-losira v kyrix 8pool 6ling 8drone all-in

-losira v kyrix 8pool 6ling 8drone all-in

-fruitdealer v check 14/14

-nestea v kyrix 14/14

-losira v kyrix 14/14

-losira v check 15/14



15h vs 15h

-nestea vs sen

-nestea vs leenock

-dimaga vs nestea

-nestea v cezanne

-fruitdealer v nestea

-min v july

-nestea v coca

-nestea v losira

-losira v check



15h loss (vs non 15h standard)

-leenock vs nestea gold 15h

-nestea v dimaga 10pool 8drone 6ling +spine

-nestea v fruitdealer 8pool 6ling spine

-fruitdealer v nestea 10pool 2et 8drone 8ling +spine

-cezanne v nestea 10pool 2et 8ling (13 drone scout)

-july v nestea 14/14

-coca v nestea gold 15h

-losira v nestea 10p 2et 8drone 8ling +spine

-sniper v check 10p baneling

-losira v check 10p baneling







Closing Comments

I've never felt comfortable taking a blind 15 hatch in ZvZ. When I do 15 hatch, I almost always send a drone scout. There have been many debates on this board about whether you need to drone scout in ZvZ, and I felt that in posting this chronicle of GSL ZvZ matches featuring blind 15 hatch, we might better understand and appreciate how and why it came to be the accepted opener that it is.



Opening with a 15 hatchery without drone scouting (or having OL vision from close air positions) is always risky. Sometimes it's a calculated risk and sometimes it's a foolish one. Even NesTea, currently considered the best zerg player in the world, has only a maginal win percentage with 15 hatchery (7-3, more likely 6-4) and all of his blind 15 hatch losses have come to players who are currently in Code A or B (and Dimaga).



On the other hand, by exploiting the blind 15 hatchery opener, NesTea currently stands undefeated at 6-0. While we should rightly consider him the best zerg player in the world, we should also be quick to point out that his capitalization on this risky opener has thus far played a key role in his ZvZ success.



And while I won't go so far as to say that 10 pool baneling is a build order win to blind 15 hatchery, it's very, very close. I will say that the economic 10 pool (double extractor trick) is a hard build order win to blind 15 hatchery though. Overall, 10 pool is 6-0 against blind 15 hatchery, with NesTea owning three (1 pool 2ETD), Check two (10 pool baneling), and Dimaga 1 (10 pool 8 drone semi-all-in). It's also worth mentioning that the solitary loss 10 pool has in the GSL against hatch first is July v Dimaga from the GSL World Championship series, where Dimaga scouted on 9 and in time to never lay down the hatchery, and was a very back and forth game.



Lastly, while 10 pool (both 2ETD and baneling) remains a somewhat cloudy build with regard to its viability vs 14/14 standard, I feel in my own limited testing that it may well be deserving of a place alongside both 15 hatchery and 14/14 as a legitimate standard possible zerg opener. I also added a liquipedia page on



I hope to inspire some quality debate in this thread on drone scouting with regard to 15 hatch in ZvZ. Thanks for taking the time to read and discuss. I labeled this as [D] because I felt it should go in the strategy forum, although I guess this may read more as a blog. I hope for this to turn into a discussion on the nature of blind 15 hatchery opener and its true viability in the mirror matchup. Anyway, over the GSL free weekend I decided to watch and take some notes on pretty much every zvz that has been played from GSL open season 1 up until the most recent up/down matches in GSL August. What follows is what I consider to be the most interesting part of my notes, which revolves around the blind 15 hatch opener in ZvZ. (Luckily for you guys, most of the games I'll be talking about are available as free VOD on gomtv.net.)My own personal belief is that opening with a blind 15 hatchery is either extremely risky or downright silly. Watching the zvz matchup evolve over some hours of reviewing GSL vods really showed me some interesting insights, and I'll share them now as I chronicle the path of ZvZ and blind 15 hatch openers:* - requires gomtv season ticketWith a map pool that included Steppes of War, Delta Quadrant, and featuring close positions on Lost Temple and Metalopolis, really the only times one would even consider going 15 hatchery in zvz here would be on Kulas Ravine, Scrap Station or when you have OL position from close air on Metal or LT. Unfortunately, there was only one such set of ZvZ this season and it featured none of those maps.At this time in ZvZ, the maps were so small with such open naturals and short rush distances that going 15 hatchery was a rare and extremely greedy opener.This is the first ZvZ match that IMNestea played in the GSL and where the legend began with him having 100% win rate vs zerg (at least for some months). Blistering Sands, a 2 player map with destructible rocks at the back door is an extremely risky map to 15 hatch on. Yet NesTea bravely decides to do it anyway, and without drone scouting.Unfortunately for him, TheWind opted for a 13gas/12pool baneling semi-all-in. Now, if you don't remember or never watched this game, you might think "now how could NesTea have possibly won this game, on this map, against that build?" The short answer is he didn't. He lost half of his drones, had no defensive units up against a solitary baneling that was about to seal the game. TheWind, knowing NesTea had roaches on the way but not sure how far along the eggs were, pulled his single baneling back to meet up with 4 additional lings, and by the time he returned, the roaches had spawned, sniped the baneling, and NesTea went from basically a build order loss to securing a mid-game win with far superior mechanics.In this, just the second ZvZ featuring blind 15 hatchery opener, we get to see another game greatly supporting its case as a standard in the matchup. As the maps get larger, it's seeming to be a safer opening. Jungle Basin, a recent addition to GSL from the previous season, is unique from other maps in the pool in that its natural is actually located behind, rather than in front of, the main base. This makes 15 hatchery both extremely tempting and very difficult to punish.Tosyad, an obscure and teamless zerg player who eeked through the qualifiers, suffered a pretty depressing loss in game 1 of the series when he threw away a huge advantage by over-committing to his ling/bling aggression seemed to have lost steam as the match wore on. He opts to do an 8pool on the map with the longest main to main rush distance at the time against FruitDealer's 15 hatchery, tucked away behind his own main.What follows is honestly a pretty pitiful ling engagement by Tosyad, although it seemed at the time that it was FruitDealer's godlike defense that led him to surviving what otherwise would have been a sure defeat. Artosis is heard saying "This is the best drone micro in the world."Even on paper, 18 drones vs 6+2 lings is not something that should really scare anyone. Upon denying this aggression, FruitDealer cruises to an easy 2-0 and it starts to look like blind 15 hatchery might be safe versus just about anything on non-shoebox maps.In its third showcase in the GSL, we see competing blind 15 hatch openers on what turns out to be close positions on Lost Temple. What follows is more or less a mirror game in the opener, although it's notable because of what Artosis can be quoted for saying near the start of this game: "Only early pool baneling is bad if you can micro drones." And up until this point, at least judging from the very brief history of the GSL, he seemed to be right.In this game, we see blind 15 hatchery vs 14gas/14pool showcased for the first time in the GSL. Artosis explains to the masses how these two builds differ and how 15 hatch offers superior larva production, so if unpunished, it can almost turn into a free win on a map like Xel'Naga.Zenio opts to followup with very hard ling/bling aggression, and NesTea's speedlings into fast roaches are able to hold it off and force the mid-game transitions. From here, we just see a basic ZvZ roach war where NesTea shows off why he's the best Zerg player in the world.At this point, it's beginning to become clear why blind 15 hatchery is becoming a standard for many. It relies on mechanics vs 14/14, micro vs early pool, and if you're good enough and the map isn't very small, it seems that you can win versus anything the opponent can do...Here Artosis does a great job explaining the state of ZvZ in the opener of game 1, explaining how most feel that it's a Rock-Scissors-Paper matchup between Hatch first, 14/14 and 9 pool.Both players open similarly until NesTea goes for roaches while Leenock goes for banelings. The rest is unrelated so I'll head right into...Once again we have competing, blind 15 hatch openers. But there's one key difference in this game--NesTea hatches at an open gold base. This game is, at least in my opinion, the first of several great examples of why failing to drone scout can and will cost you the game.NesTea's decision to take the gold was essentially a build order win because Leenock doesn't drone scout. In fact, by relying on his overlord to spot NesTea's natural, he mistakenly assumes that NesTea is doing some 1-base build, and proceeds to overreact defensively and fall out of the game very quickly.Leenock scouted the gold expansion around 5:00 into the game, and spent 4 banelings needlessly as well as traded zerglings to snipe this expansion only after two full injection cycles. NesTea still got all the larva he needed from it, used all of them, and baited a tremendous overreaction from Leenock who put himself in a terrible position by feeling that his only option was to force that gold to immediately die. He wasted banelings and couldn't drone at all, and then was ultimately forced to drone as NesTea followed up with an all-in.July opens blind 15 hatch 14 pool in cross positions against mOONglade's 14/14 bling pressure. July drops a fast warren but has a late gas and so is barely able to defend in time with roaches and zerglings. From here the game transitions into a typical July game (re: slugfest).This game is special among all of these I mention because it actually doesn't feature a blind 15 hatchery. I include it because in re-watching it I noticed something very important--Dimaga actually intended to open 15 hatchery, but he drone scouted on 9 supply and saw July's 10 pool. He then responds by canceling his 14th drone, and going 13 pool 12 gas. I firmly believe Dimaga would have been hard-pressed to survive against July's 10 pool pressure had he not drone scouted and responded accordingly.The rest of the game devolves into reactionary ling/bling wars but is a great example of an aborted 15 hatchery open where drone scouting really did make the difference in the outcome. It should also be noted that they spawned close positions (top left and bottom right) which allowed Dimaga to scout the 10 pool before having to 15 hatch by 9 scouting. Had they spawned long cross positions (bottom left and top right), Dimaga's scout would likely not have made it there in time, and he would have had to open 14 pool, making his ling defense more difficult.Terminus was added the previous month to the GSL map pool partly in response to the number of all-ins. The hope was that in adding such an obviously macro-oriented map, that cheese would be heavily disfavored. I mention this as a foreshadow to a future game, but this is the first time the map is showcased in GSL ZvZ.Dimaga drone scouts on 9 and opts for 16 hatch 16 pool opener. Despite sending a drone scout out at 1:00 game time, he doesn't find NesTea's natural expansion until 2:30, 10 seconds after he hatches. NesTea opens with a blind 15 hatchery, and what follows is a pretty standard hatch v hatch ZvZ.This game, NesTea's first GSL loss, marks the beginning of a very key shift in blind 15 hatchery as an opener. Dimaga's build is very crude, 10 pool with 6 lings and 8 drones, along with an offensive spine crawler.Now in this game NesTea had some pretty awful micro by any current standards, and it's a bit unfortunate because between Dimaga's execution and NesTea's poor micro really mask the power of the 10 pool against 15 hatchery. But it's also important to note that at this point in SC2, zergs weren't very practiced in either executing or defending 10 pool against 15 hatchery.Both players opt for blind 15 hatchery in cross positions in this game, and honestly if you have the chance I recommend watching this game if you haven't seen it. While not germane to this thread, it's one of the best standard ZvZs the GSL has seen, with nearly flawless execution from Dimaga and NesTea.On its face, this match is probably the strongest support for the blind 15 hatchery opening. Around this time, 15 hatch was becoming very popular as the opening of choice in ZvZ in just about every situation.In cross positions on Metalopolis, and without the fear of close rush distances anymore, LosirA opts to open with a blind 15 hatchery. In typical Kyrix style, he drops an 8 pool and promptly sends all his drones with the initial 6 lings. Artosis is quoted as saying "Losira's dead 100%" and instinctively so. If an early pool with lings is dangerous, surely pulling every single drone would maximize dps and be the most difficult possible all-in to hold.LosirA features some godlike micro and is somehow able to hold. Kyrix chases around the drones and never really has a chance to engage as they run off creep and all over the place. The lings come out, LosirA has more stuff, the engagement happens, the crowd goes wild, and with Kyrix suddenly having no drones, abruptly ends. Unfortunately for LosirA though, he'd need to pull the tricks out a second time some minutes later.Seemingly baffled by LosirA's other-worldly all-in defense, and not to be denied, Kyrix opts for exactly the same opening. Meanwhile, LosirA has no qualms about blindly opening 15 hatchery on Crevasse, an even larger map than Metalopolis and featuring a natural located behind the main.This time, however, Kyrix decides to focus the spawning pool, giving LosirA time to continue mining, take free potshots on the drones/lings (killing half of Kyrix's workers), and have plenty of time for his own lings to spawn. The pool dies, but with broodlings, zerglings, and drones in superior numbers, LosirA is able to finish off Kyrix's battered force for a pretty easy win.This marks the third time that blind 15 hatchery has held vs an 8 pool, twice with all drones. The conclusion is seemingly inescapable--blind 15 hatchery is safe vs early pool with good micro.Just two days after LosirA's two miracle defenses, blind 15 hatchery seems like the opener of choice among pros now. In this game FruitDealer opts for it, while Check takes the more conservative 14/14 route. What follows is more or less an ordinary game, and FruitDealer is able to secure a win.At least up to this point in the GSL, I feel like this set marks the most compelling evidence for the susceptibility of the blind 15 hatchery opener. Recalling the series in the previous month's World Championship, NesTea opts to open with a blind 15 hatchery on the largest, most macro-friendly map in the pool. Meanwhile, FruitDealer, out of practice and not interested in playing a long macro game against the new king of zerg, goes for an 8 pool + drone scout.NesTea again shows some indecision and generally poor response to a build that is seemingly less aggressive than Kyrix's. In fact, while the drones and lings dance around in NesTea's main, FruitDealer can be seen actually droning behind it. He hadn't intended to force a quick end to the game, but a misstep by NesTea turns what should have been a few drone kills into crippling damage. He miffed an opportunity to surround and finish off a building spinecrawler which finished and ultimately killed several of his drones.The game goes on a while longer, but this loss ultimately gets chalked up to a poor micro defense.NesTea, coming off only his third GSL ZvZ loss and actively trying to defend his crown as the best zerg in the world introduces an improved version of Dimaga's 10 pool ling/drone all-in that gave him his first GSL loss.Proxying a spine crawler puts the nail in the coffin this game, with FruitDealer unable to delay by either running drones off creep or by engaging in drone dancing (due to NesTea's superior numbers). Further, NesTea, with four drones at home, can continuously produce zerglings to reinforce this push, meaning that every 15 seconds, a new zergling pair will add to his numbers.In this game, we see the first of what will ultimately prove to be a complete build order counter to blind 15 hatchery--10 poo, double extractor trick into drone, 12 overlord, drone scout. Upon scouting the 15 hatch, send lings and 8/12 drones. This combination of 8 lings and 8 drones is quite simply not possible to defend off of blind 15 hatchery with just 16 drones and an incomplete pool.After securing complimentary early pool victories over blind 15 hatch in games 1 and 2, both FruitDealer and NesTea opt to blind 15 hatch in what is otherwise a standard showcase of mirror openers in a mirror matchup.This match doesn't contribute anything to this discussion other than that the first two games showcase both players opening with a blind 15 hatchery. It's also apparent that July's understanding of SC2, after only recently switching to SC2 from BW a few months earlier,is not very strong yet.For the second time, NesTea showcases his improved version of Dimaga's 10 pool drone all-in. This game deserves special mention because Cezanne actually drone scouts when he lays down the 15 hatchery, so it's not blind. Cezanne arrives at NesTea's base at 2:30 in time to see a completed pool and eggs in production. He immediately cancels his hatchery and drops a spawning pool.Had it not been for a complete lack of micro by NesTea on his initial 6 lings, Cezanne would have been hard pressed to not come away crippled from this attack. However, NesTea's 7th and 8 lings were able to pick off a few weakened drones while forcing Cezanne to make more lings than he wanted, allowing NesTea to drone behind the attack and stay comfortably ahead all game. His speed was faster, he had more drones, and double queens protecting his ramp from all-in by 5:00 game time.Following up on this opener, NesTea secures and maintains a hefty advantage and uses superior mechanics and execution to double Cezanne's roach count for the ultimate mid-game engagement. In this game we finally get to see the overwhelming power of this economic 10pool opener against 15 hatchery in a macro game.NesTea and Cezanne both open with a blind 15 hatchery and basically mirror each other until the mid-game, whereupon NesTea opts for a Spire and Cezanne goes for a roach/hydra/infestor timing. He's able to nydus into NesTea's main and deliver NesTea his first non-early game ZvZ loss.This game features a somewhat uncharacteristic 14/14 opener by NesTea against a blind 15 hatch by July. What follows is nothing too out of the ordinary until the late game, and if you have time I recommend watching this game if you like hot Ultralisk on Ultralisk action.For the second time, NesTea exploits the blind 15 hatchery opener by hatching at an open gold expansion. As did Leenock in GSL March on Crossfire, Coca relied on his first Overlord to see no hatchery at the natural and mistakenly assumed Nestea was doing some kind of one-base all-in. He overreacted while NesTea comfortably droned and played defensively, securing what was basically a free win. As was the case against Leenock, the Coca's failure to scout the base of NesTea resulted in basically a build order loss.Fearing an all-in, NesTea opted for an extremely conservative game 2 opener and eeked out a clean victory. But in game 3, he opts for a blind 15 hatchery against Coca's 14/14. What follows is nothing too out of the ordinary, but if you're looking for a game to watch that showcases hatch first vs 14/14, I recommend checking out this game when you have time.This entire match is an educational showcase of blind 15 hatch. In game 1, both players open with blind 15 hatch, and what follows is probably the best ZvZ game to date in the GSL.For the first time, we see what happens when NesTea's economic 10 pool stacks up against the tried-and-true 14/14. Upon seeing no hatchery at LosirA's natural with his 12 drone scout, NesTea transitions into what ends up being a highly aggressive but ultimately macro-oriented game. If you are curious just how well economic 10 pool fares vs 14/14, this is the best GSL game available.NesTea has to rely on some solid mechanics to make up for LosirA's much earlier speed, and must stay one-basing for longer without any map control. Following up on an aggressive speedling timing to help secure his own natural expansion, NesTea responds with a roach wall that effectively nullifies LosirA's intended baneling counterattack, and from there the game turns into a mid-game slug-fest.Both players opt for blind 15 hatch openers and NesTea shows the mid-game mutalisk contain he expects to become the future of ZvZ.Down 0-3, LosirA opts to open blind 15 hatchery. Meanwhile, NesTea, for the second time in the finals, opens with his economic 10 pool double extractor trick. Upon scouting LosirA's hatchery, he immediately sends 8/12 drones and 8 lings, knowing full-well that he has won the game from the moment he leaves his base.Artosis mistakenly thinks that this is the same or very similar to the 8 pool drone all-in that LosirA saw twice versus Kyrix in GSL May, holding both times. As the drama unfolds, LosirA's drones, unable to delay or openly engage, are picked apart to seal NesTea's undefeated run to his third GSL Championship.NesTea opens with a blind 15 hatchery to Kyrix's 14/14. What follows is a nice example of NesTea's new mutalisk style mid-game in ZvZ.Sniper opens with a blind 15 hatch on the newest macro-favored GSL map addition. Unbeknownst to him, Check opens with 10 pool baneling, and despite his best efforts to snap defeat from the jaws of victory, Check is able to follow up with a second, crippling attack, ultimately securing what should have been almost a build order win.LosirA opts for blind 15 hatch against Kyrix's safer 14/14 speedling expand.Both players opt for blind 15 hatchery in what turns into a very highly recommended macro game.LosirA opens with a blind 15 hatchery while CheckPrime opts for 10 pool baneling. Unlike Check's Code A Ro16 G1 vs Sniper, he doesn't bungle his banelings, so despite LosirA going for the most conservative variant of 15 hatch by following up with 14/14 gas pool, he meets a very swift end and falls without much resistance.Despite suffering almost a build order loss against Check in their first tiebreak match, LosirA again opens with a blind 15 hatchery. Check opts for a 15gas/14pool and LosirA flips on boss mode to handily outplay Check to conclude a record-setting double-playoff Up/Down series featuring 15 sets (as opposed to the standard 7).=================================non15 Hatch vs. blind 15 Hatch: 6-0 (leenock, fruitdealer, cezanne, july, coca, losira WIN)blind 15 Hatch vs non15 Hatch: 4-2* (thewind*, dimaga, zenio, kyrix WIN; dimaga, fruitdealer LOSS)blind 15 Hatch vs blind 15 Hatch: 5-2 (sen, leenock, coca, fruitdealer, losira WIN; dimaga, cezanne LOSS)with cheese: 6-2* (leenock, fruitdealer, cezanne, coca, losira, thewind* WIN, dimaga, fruitdealer LOSS)*The game vs oGsTheWind almost certainly should have been a loss.blind 15 Hatch vs non15 Hatch 11-10blind 15 Hatch vs 14/14 5-1 (1-0 vs 15/14)blind 15 Hatch vs 10 pool (any) 0-6- cezanne v nestea 13 scout 15h v 10p 2ET (doesn't see pool until hatch is down)- dimaga v july 9 scout 13p/12g v 10 pool (scouts 10pool, cancels 14th drone, intended but aborted 15h)- dimaga v nestea 9 scout 16h v 15h (doesn't see 15h before hatching)15h win (vs non 15h)- july vs moonglade 14/14 baneling- nestea vs dimaga 9scout 16hatch 16 pool (scout doesnt find 15hatch until after 16hatch)-nestea vs thewind* 13/12 baneling-fruitdealer vs tosyad 8pool 8lings-nestea vs zenio 14/14-losira v kyrix 8pool 6ling 8drone all-in-losira v kyrix 8pool 6ling 8drone all-in-fruitdealer v check 14/14-nestea v kyrix 14/14-losira v kyrix 14/14-losira v check 15/1415h vs 15h-nestea vs sen-nestea vs leenock-dimaga vs nestea-nestea v cezanne-fruitdealer v nestea-min v july-nestea v coca-nestea v losira-losira v check15h loss (vs non 15h standard)-leenock vs nestea gold 15h-nestea v dimaga 10pool 8drone 6ling +spine-nestea v fruitdealer 8pool 6ling spine-fruitdealer v nestea 10pool 2et 8drone 8ling +spine-cezanne v nestea 10pool 2et 8ling (13 drone scout)-july v nestea 14/14-coca v nestea gold 15h-losira v nestea 10p 2et 8drone 8ling +spine-sniper v check 10p baneling-losira v check 10p banelingI've never felt comfortable taking a blind 15 hatch in ZvZ. When I do 15 hatch, I almost always send a drone scout. There have been many debates on this board about whether you need to drone scout in ZvZ, and I felt that in posting this chronicle of GSL ZvZ matches featuring blind 15 hatch, we might better understand and appreciate how and why it came to be the accepted opener that it is.Opening with a 15 hatchery without drone scouting (or having OL vision from close air positions) is always risky. Sometimes it's a calculated risk and sometimes it's a foolish one. Even NesTea, currently considered the best zerg player in the world, has only a maginal win percentage with 15 hatchery (7-3, more likely 6-4) and all of his blind 15 hatch losses have come to players who are currently in Code A or B (and Dimaga).On the other hand, by exploiting the blind 15 hatchery opener, NesTea currently stands undefeated at 6-0. While we should rightly consider him the best zerg player in the world, we should also be quick to point out that his capitalization on this risky opener has thus far played a key role in his ZvZ success.And while I won't go so far as to say that 10 pool baneling is a build order win to blind 15 hatchery, it's very, very close. I will say that the economic 10 pool (double extractor trick) is a hard build order win to blind 15 hatchery though. Overall, 10 pool is 6-0 against blind 15 hatchery, with NesTea owning three (1 pool 2ETD), Check two (10 pool baneling), and Dimaga 1 (10 pool 8 drone semi-all-in). It's also worth mentioning that the solitary loss 10 pool has in the GSL against hatch first is July v Dimaga from the GSL World Championship series, where Dimaga scouted on 9 and in time to never lay down the hatchery, and was a very back and forth game.Lastly, while 10 pool (both 2ETD and baneling) remains a somewhat cloudy build with regard to its viability vs 14/14 standard, I feel in my own limited testing that it may well be deserving of a place alongside both 15 hatchery and 14/14 as a legitimate standard possible zerg opener. I also added a liquipedia page on http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/10_Pool_Baneling_(vs._Zerg) at the request of a poster in this thread, although I haven't experimented much with it myself.I hope to inspire some quality debate in this thread on drone scouting with regard to 15 hatch in ZvZ. Thanks for taking the time to read and discuss. KR NsPMichael.805 | AM Michael.2640 | SEA Michael.523 | 엔에스피 New Star Players