Hi, everyone! Welcome back to my blog and to my third week of Power Rankings for Island of the Idols! I once again really apologize for this post being a day late… things have been pretty crazy for me lately, but better late than never 🙂

One of the things that this episode did really well was highlight some of the really fascinating dynamics on both tribes, and beautifully wove together a lot of different emotional storylines together to make something pretty coherent and most importantly fun to watch!

As a reminder, here’s how my Power Rankings work. Each week I’ll rank the Castaways by tribe based on a few factors: How likely I think they are to go home in the next episode, how much ‘power’ they have in the game (whether that’s physical, social, strategic, or a combo of all 3), and how they performed in the previous episode. I’ll also show how far each Castaway moved up or down in the rankings! There’s not a points system and no big prize at the end for me — this is just for fun! Finally, I’m not spoiled in any way, and I intend to keep it that way. So, PLEASE don’t send me spoilers. That’s not cool.

Another quick note: Sometimes doing these can be tough when certain players (or even whole tribes) don’t get a lot of airtime. It’s tough to work with what I’m given, but I try my best to share my thoughts on everyone!

Here we go!

SPOILER WARNING: IF YOU HAVEN’T SEEN EPISODE 3, “Honesty Would Be Chill”, DON’T SCROLL DOWN PAST THE LAIRO AND VOKAI BUFFS!!! GO WATCH THE EPISODE, THEN COME BACK AND ENJOY!

1: MISSY (-)

Missy stays on top of Lairo for the third week in a row! Not only is she further entrenching herself in a core 3 with Chelsea and Elizabeth, but she’s keeping her options open on the down-low. We saw her and Elizabeth think about whether to keep Vince or not — and while I think cutting Karishma (oh, that’s a really poor choice of words…) would have possibly been a safer choice, considering that Karishma outed those 3 as the ‘Survivor Sorority’ at Tribal, Missy was able to make sure that the majority of Lairo stayed on the same page. She also KILLED IT in the challenge, maneuvering herself around her tribemates on that beam like she’d done it before. Missy seems to be allied in some way with everyone on Lairo — even if it’s loose and probably only in theory, so I think she’s set up fantastically going into the next episode. She’s gonna stay dope and kick some more butt. If Chelsea doesn’t win, I want it to be Missy. I’m hooked.

2: ELIZABETH (+1)

Elizabeth somehow was able to escape all of the baggage that came with going to Island of the Idols that Vince had… she’s in a power position alongside Chelsea and Missy, but like them she’s gotta be careful of how others perceive that trio. I really liked seeing that she and the girls were at least entertaining the idea of siding with Vince, but I think that given that they don’t know that Karishma really isn’t super on board with the girls anymore… it made sense for them. Though I could see Elizabeth taking the fall if somehow Karishma gains some power, I think that she has enough allies right now to keep her set up going further into the game.

3: CHELSEA (-1)

Chelsea takes a little dip this week, but it’s mainly due to the preview for episode 4 showing people getting wary of her and Dean’s potential showmance. I’m hoping that Chelsea doesn’t end up like Figgy did in Millennials vs Gen X.. but if anyone can realize the situation and course-correct, it’s Chelsea. She still is in a super tight alliance with Missy and Elizabeth, and seems to have great connections with the rest of her tribe. I was a bit surprised that like Missy, she flipped on Vince, but the good news is that unbeknownst to Chelsea, that’s one less Idol in the game. Chelsea’s Idol is actually better, because it has a far later expiration date than Vince’s (or Kellee’s). Despite my wariness… I think Chelsea is still solid (though if we’ve learned anything from the past two weeks, if I think someone is solid they might still go home!)

4: ELAINE (+1)

Elaine had a quieter episode this week, but she’s recovered from being on the outs of the early core by finding herself right in the middle. She can go with pretty much whoever she wants to at this point, because she’s tight with the girls who have the clear majority. I don’t think she’s in ‘control’, but she’s certainly doing well for herself. Now that Vince is gone, she’s lost an ally, but flipping on him was probably a better move for her because it solidifies trust with the girls and also leaves Dean, Tom, Aaron, and Karishma as a potential minority bloc that she could flip to if need be.

5: AARON (+4)

Aaron wasn’t really shown too much in the episode, but his closest connections right now seem to be with Tom and Dean (both of whom are probably on a sinking ship) seeing as they all voted for Karishma together, and Missy (who is probably his chance for salvation). He seems like he’s keeping his head down and letting other people self-destruct, which is a great strategy at this point, especially coming off of the first vote. If he can keep that up, he might recover.

6: KARISHMA (+2)

Karishma’s had a rough go of the game at this point. Cutting her hand like that (thankfully it wasn’t serious enough to warrant pulling her from the game!) seemed to only fuel the fire brewing inside her. She made really great cases to the people she needed to in order to stay alive, but I’m really surprised that she survived the vote. Not only was she terrible in the challenge, she was clearly on the social outs when nobody came to her aid during her injury — she even said in a confessional that everyone was dead to her now… so I’m pretty sure that if Karishma makes a swap, she’ll flip on Lairo the first chance she gets. The question now, though, is whether people will trust her, or if she’s just an easy boot down the line. I also love her story and her perspective and how that applies to her game. The diversity of this cast is awesome, and even though it was at the expense of Vince, I love that Karishma is getting time to shine and playing hard.

7: TOM (-1)

Tom had another quiet episode, but his actions spoke louder this week. He seemed pretty lazy around camp, and the trio of him, Elaine, and Vince dissolved when the guys started to gun for each other, apparently. Tom is looking like he’s on the outs but doesn’t really know it… so we’ll see if he can recover — but I’m not sure at this point. If he can reconcile with Elaine and get her to flip, he could regain some power. However, I think that it’s going to be a long shot.

8: DEAN (-1)

DEAN. WHY. WOULD. YOU. SAY. SPLIT. THE. VOTE. WHEN. EVERYONE. ON. YOUR. TRIBE. WAS. THERE???? That might be one of the most egregious social mistakes I’ve ever seen.

Also, he was downright TERRIBLE on the puzzle. Ouch. Somehow it didn’t result in everyone flipping on Dean, but I think he’s in hot water right now, especially with the episode 4 preview teasing that he and Chelsea are ‘coupling up’… combined with the fact that nobody knows Chelsea has an Idol and she is in a way better social position, this could potentially be curtains for Dean. I sure hope not, though, because his first confessional was entertaining as hell (especially as it came right after he tripped on a branch!).

1: TOMMY (+1)

Tommy played this week phenomenally. He repaired his relationships with Jack and Jamal, nurtured his bonds with Lauren and Janet, and started to work his magic and paint some targets on other people’s backs with the help of Jamal doing a lot of the talking. I LOVED when he wondered if taking out Dan was a power move for them and Janet, or just for Jamal. I think taking out Dan would be a fantastic and possibly unifying vote (Noura could be that too…), so I’m hoping Vokai ends up at Tribal just to see how that’ll play out. I think that Tommy is a total front-runner to win right now — he just has to make sure nobody catches on to him like what happened to Molly.

2: LAUREN (-1)

Lauren took a step back this week to lay low after spearheading the Molly vote, which was a great move. Although we didn’t see her too much (She got no confessionals!), I think that she’s got a lot of close relationships on Vokai right now, and that’s going to keep her name off the chopping block and in the majority. HOWEVER, I think that Lauren might think she’s closer to Tommy than in reality — Tommy and Janet seem to be more of a pair right now. So, that’s something to keep an eye out for.

3: KELLEE (-)

Kellee could be in a bit of danger given that Vokai now has to unanimously choose someone to go to the Island of the Idols — this person could blow up her game if it’s revealed that she possibly has an Idol and didn’t tell the truth about the Island… or it could signal the start of a great strategic relationship depending on who goes. Kellee doesn’t seem super entrenched with anyone just yet — maybe Lauren, but I think she and Tommy are more of a duo than the girls are. Either way, I’m feeling great about her position in the tribe right now!

4: JACK (+1)

Jack was able to keep calm after a nasty blindside, and though he by no means is the center of power right now, he’s certainly not on the bottom and has given Vokai very little reason to be wary of him. I think that Jack is doing well right now, but will need to ramp it up if he wants to start building some steam in the game. We saw Tommy strategize more with Jamal than with Jack, so that is a little worrisome, but I think that Jack definitely has less of a target on his back than Jamal does right now, so that’s something good going for him.

5: JANET (-1)

Janet continued to be a quiet strategic force on the tribe, as she’s tight with multiple blocs and alliances. Though she didn’t beat Elizabeth at the swimming stage of the challenge, she still did a great job and Vokai was able to pull out the win in the end. She was not the only one wary about Dan this week, so that also bodes well. I was initially worried that Janet could get swept to the sidelines due to her age, but she’s actually playing fantastically right now! I hope we get to see more of her in the next episode!

6: JASON (+2)

I still think that Jason is in an iffy spot, but it’s certainly improving. He is NOT the center of attention anymore — right now, it seems to be that Dan, Jamal, and Noura are on the chopping block. What Jason has to do now is subtly maneuver the vote to benefit him the most — the question is, is Noura going to help or hinder his game? They’re already seen as a duo, so it could be beneficial for him to vote her out so he can solidify a new alliance. However, that alliance could just as easily vote him out next. So, I think that Jason is in a precarious spot, but not because he’s necessarily likely to go home.

7: JAMAL (-)

Jamal quickly worked to regain his position in the tribe by immediately working to target Dan. I think that this will either be great for Jamal and get him into a majority position… or it will cause people to be wary of him and vote him out. That’s really the conundrum with telling people who you want out! The good thing is, though, that Jamal isn’t alone in being wary of Dan’s sleazy car salesman vibe, so hopefully if Tommy and Janet (and by extension Lauren and Jack) can side with Jamal, that’s a majority and puts Jamal in a good group. I really am still loving Jamal’s energy as he’s still a really good and calm narrator. He’s not perfect, of course, but he’s really fun to watch!

8: DAN (-)

Dan is nominally in the majority alliance, but I think he’s de facto in danger. His name keeps getting thrown out, and I bet that his behavior from episode 1 still is lingering in the back of the girls’ minds. There are a lot of reasons right now that someone could legitimately want Dan to go, and that is very dangerous, especially when it doesn’t seem that Dan realizes this. He is still gung-ho on taking out Noura, which I think is the best move for the tribe right now, but the social damage he caused earlier might outweigh Noura’s. It’s really going to depend on what the power players like Tommy, Lauren, Kellee, and Janet decide.

9: NOURA (-)

Noura’s story this week continued to revolve around her annoying everyone, and that’s causing her name to continuously be thrown out by Dan and others as an easy 8-1 vote. When you are being called an easy vote, it’s often the truth, and so while it’s very possible that if Lairo loses Dan could go, I think that the more level-headed players like Tommy, Lauren and Janet might wish for cooler minds to prevail. That said, if Noura ends up on the Island of the Idols this week, she might come back with an Idol and blow up the game. So, it’s going to be really interesting to see what happens. Noura is really fun to watch, so I kind of want her to stay, but I also think that it would make perfect sense for her to be voted out at this point. I think that she has few allies (maybe only Jason at this point), and that’s a really bad problem to have on a tribe of 9.

And now, to give my thoughts on the third person voted out of Survivor Island of the Idols:

Crap, first I lose Molly and now Vince?? Two of my top 4 down this early is heartbreaking, especially when we got to see so much of Vince’s story. Vince was an absolute delight to watch, and I am so inspired by his journey and his positivity after his elimination. His visit to Island of the Idols was amazing (Rob asking him if he knew where he was from was… priceless!) and the fact that he snuck into the Vokai camp to get fire, but came back with ashes, and STILL got Sandra and Rob to give him the Idol was masterful work. I think he took Sandra’s advice of staying calm under pressure a little TOO much… and that, alongside Lairo being wary of him having returned from IoI, resulted in him going out with an Idol in his water bottle. It sucks because too often we see Asian-Americans get voted out pre-merge, and Vince was so fun and charismatic so I was looking forward to a lot from him. Island of the Idols certainly lost a bit of luster with Vince being voted out.

Catch episode 4 of Survivor: Island of the Idols, entitled “Plan Z” on Wednesday, October 16th at 7 PM Central, 8 PM Eastern! Lots of plans get made, and if Plan A doesn’t work, you better have backups.. and backups for your backups! This title sounds like the strategy is going to be hectic for whichever tribe goes to Tribal Council.. so I can’t wait! Also, the preview shows that the tribes will be competing in a blindfold challenge, which is always fun to watch. I’m loving this season so far — especially because we’re not swapping in episode 4, so we get a little more time to see how the dynamics shift in this early stage of the game!

I’ll see you all on Monday, October 21st, for my Power Rankings for Episode 4! Again, I ask that you PLEASE bear with me as Grad School and life can get in the way, so I might have to occasionally push my posts back a little bit (like I did today… again… 😦 ). I hope you all understand!

Finally, I’m still soliciting ideas for re-branding my blog’s url to something better than ‘austinsurvivorstrategyblog.wordpress.com’… so please reach out if you have ideas!

Thanks so much for reading, and if you want to stay updated on the goings-on of the blog, ask me questions, or find out more about me personally, follow me on Twitter!

-Austin