Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott could be in line for a big payday. But is his quality of play worth that much?

Now that the NFL Draft is over, the Dallas Cowboys have turned their attention to extending one of their key offensive players, quarterback Dak Prescott.

At the Cowboys’ annual golf tournament, executive vice president Stephen Jones said the team is “off and running” on contract extension talks for Prescott. Clarence Hill Jr. of the Fort-Worth Star-Telegram is also reporting that Prescott’s extension will approach $30 million annually, if not more.

Last month, the Seattle Seahawks gave quarterback Russell Wilson a four-year, $140 million extension with a $65 million signing bonus. It’s possible Prescott could be looking to exceed Wilson’s number since he’s next in line to get paid.

Although he’s been instrumental to their success the last few seasons, should Prescott be one of the highest paid players in the NFL? If he’s being judged by the numbers, there is a case to be made.

Prescott by the numbers

In his first three seasons in the league, Prescott has thrown for 10,876 yards, 67 touchdowns against 25 interceptions. He has also rushed for 944 yards and 18 touchdowns over that span.

Prescott also led the Cowboys to a 32-16 record in those three seasons, including two NFC East titles. He has posted 14 game-winning drives, most in NFL history for a quarterback with at least three seasons under his belt. During the 2018 playoffs, Prescott was impressive as he helped lead the Cowboys to a win over the Seattle Seahawks. Dallas would lose to the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Conference Semifinals a week later.

The argument against Prescott is he isn’t thought of as one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Quarterbacks Jameis Winston (453), Kirk Cousins (596), Andy Dalton (405), Mitchell Trubisky (418), Ryan Fitzpatrick (473), and Eli Manning (344) had better defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) than Prescott (112) last year. According to Football Outsiders, which values the quarterback’s overall performance compared with replacement level, the aforementioned players also had a better DVOA or defense-adjusted value over average.

“We’re sold on Dak and we do want to have him for the long term,” Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said on an appearance on the Rich Eisen Show. “We think he’s worthy of investing in for the long term. … We see real upside in Dak. You don’t have it all yet.”

Analytics may be working against him. Prescott has led the Cowboys to a winning record during his first three seasons and only their third playoff victory since 1996. What could be hindering the Cowboys is the state of their salary cap situation.

Can the Cowboys keep the core together?

In April, Dallas signed defensive end Demarcus Lawrence to a five-year deal worth $105 million with $65 million guaranteed. Then there is the looming situation of having to sign Prescott, wide receiver Amari Cooper and running back Ezekiel Elliott.

Both Prescott and Cooper will be in the final season of their rookie contracts in 2019. Elliott will be under control for two more seasons. But the fact remains that the Cowboys will have to pay a large sum to keep the current nucleus intact. A nucleus that might not be good enough to win a Super Bowl.

America’s Team has always been defined by the number of championships they’ve won. It’s worth noting they haven’t won one since 1995. If the Cowboys do pay Prescott, Cooper, and Elliott, they had better be the ones to snap the long drought.

Finding a franchise quarterback is the NFL’s equivalent of winning the lottery. In fact, the jury is still out on whether the Cowboys have in fact found theirs. That said, they definitely have to find a way to keep Prescott under center. Even if he isn’t worth getting a bigger contract than Wilson, it is Prescott’s time to get paid. That’s how it works in the world of free agency.