Stephen Harper is not the most likable prime minister we’ve ever had but he ranks among the most politically savvy.

He’s assessed the political landscape between now and Oct. 19, 2015 — the last possible date for the next federal election — and concluded an early election is his best hope.

The rationale for Harper calling an election early this winter is compelling:

First, he seems to have deliberately framed his approach to entering the war against Islamic State in a way that made it difficult for either opposition party to support his actions. They complained that Harper was secretive, hyperpartisan and disrespectful.

Maybe he was. But it’s left the Conservatives on the politically correct side of this issue. Nearly two-thirds of Canadians support Harper’s commitment to send fighter jets to Iraq.

The premeditated murder of two soldiers will serve to further buttress support for the war. It could also help Harper if he strikes a careful balance between security and freedom in his approach to tougher anti-terrorism laws.

Harper now has a plausible pretext for an early election — to seek a clear mandate for the Islamic State war and for his response to domestic terrorism.

Second, at the end of October Harper announced $3 billion for his “Family Tax Cut,” which takes effect in this tax year. It would allow families with children to split their incomes to a maximum tax savings of $2,000. Those eligible for the Universal Child Care Benefit would receive increases for every age group. Child Care Expense Deductions are also increased.

In this week’s fall economic update, the Conservatives will repeat their “we are sound economic managers” mantra. They will also spell out how Harper plans to spend the rest of his expected $7-billon budget surplus. Expect him to a reannounce the family tax cuts, a doubling of the limit for tax-free savings accounts, an adult fitness tax credit and increased infrastructure spending.

All this is part of the buildup to an early winter 2015 goodies-laden budget.

Third, the Tories have the biggest election war chest. They’ve started another round of anti-Trudeau attack ads. So far the ads haven’t worked against Trudeau. But the cumulative effect may kick in if he shows signs of “not being up for the job.”

Fourth, if Harper waits until next spring, summer or fall to pull the plug, he’ll face a political maelstrom as the criminal trials of his disgraced senators get underway.

The 49-day trial of suspended Sen. Mike Duffy is scheduled to begin on April 7. Duffy faces 31 criminal counts of fraud, breach of trust and bribery. The trial will remind Canadians of Harper’s poor judgment.

Harper may be called to testify. Duffy will take every opportunity to embarrass and undermine his former Tory puppet masters. The proceedings will be magnified by a prolonged media feeding frenzy.

Then there are the many scheduled trials of suspended Conservative Sen. Patrick Brazeau. He’s slated to stand trail in late March for sexual assault and assault. His trial for breach of trust and fraud over Senate expense claims starts in June.

The electorate may have forgotten about suspended Sen. Pamela Wallin, but Harper hasn’t. The RCMP alleged last November that she committed fraud and breach of trust by filing inappropriate Senate expense claims.

Wallin has since repaid the full amount she owes. The RCMP has been silent about laying charges. If it does, her trial would likely be in early fall, mere weeks before an October election.

None of this will help Harper.

Finally, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau has led in the polls for 19 months. The longer Harper waits while voters are mesmerized by Trudeau’s high-wire act, the more likely it is to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The longer Harper waits the stronger his opposition gets.

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Harper has one major advantage: the power to call an election anytime between now and Oct. 19, 2015. Don’t be surprised if he brings in a pre-election budget in snowy February and calls an election for later that month.

He’d be acting in advance of another Senate scandal sideshow. He’d have support for his efforts to contain homegrown terrorists, and could take the nation’s pulse before committing to a second phase of the war against Islamic State.

R. Michael Warren is a former corporate director, Ontario deputy minister, TTC chief general manager and Canada Post CEO. r.michael.warren@gmail.com

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