Breaking Down Michigan's Turnaround

Improvements in Key Areas Mark Wolverines' Season

by Joe Meloni/Senior Writer (@JoeMeloni)

It seems simple when you say it.

Shoot the puck more.

Goals come from shots. Teams need goals to win. So, sometimes getting an offense going comes back to just shooting the damn puck more.

It's never quite that easy.

A single shot on goal requires a few other factors. The most important, of course, is the puck. To shoot the puck, a team has to have the puck. To shoot the puck more often, a team needs to have it more often.

And that's hardly a simple proposition, especially playing the teams Michigan does.

Michigan coach Mel Pearson, in his first year running the program, knows all about it.

About two months ago, his team was outshot by more than 5.3 shots per game. The Wolverines averaged 25 shots a night; they allowed 30.4. That handful of shots per game difference was telling of other issues for Michigan.

After a 2-1 loss to Notre Dame on Jan. 7 — the second such defeat of the weekend — Michigan's record was 8-10-2. It's hardly a terrible showing through 20 games, but Pearson knew his team was capable of more with some systemic adjustments and individual improvements. What he saw against the Fighting Irish told him as much.

"There was no a-ha moment," Pearson said. "The Notre Dame series, even though we didn't win, we played extremely well at home on the Friday night. We went down there and had another good game on Sunday, and we knew that if we just did a couple things a little better, we'd be in position to win. We beat them 5 on 5. They beat us in the special teams. ... That Notre Dame weekend really sort of showed us that if we just make a few improvements, we really could do this."

After the two losses to Notre Dame, six of Michigan's 10 defeats came in games decided by one goal or a goal and an empty-netter. Often, those results are simply bad luck or an instance of one goaltender playing a shade better his counterpart. Both of these were realities for Michigan.

Compounding the problems even more was the team's consistently poor decision-making, which made life quite hard on its defensemen and goaltenders. Generating more offense isn't just about the talents of the puck carrier. The typically talented and exceedingly young Michigan players dazzled Pearson nightly. They frustrated him just as often.

"We want to recruit skill, and we want our players to use their skill," Pearson said. "But we still have to pick our spots and manage the game, when to control the puck and when we want to try to beat a guy one on one. There's a certain way that's non-negotiable that we need to play. We want to have the puck. But we have to play hard without it. The reason we're playing so hard without it is so we can get it back. Then you can go do what you're good at, what you have fun doing, which is scoring goals and making plays."

Aside from the gap in shots per game, Michigan was also among the nation's worst in save percentage as the calendar turned. After their first 20 games, Michigan's Hayden Lavigne and Jack Lafontaine combined for an .890 save percentage.

The problems fed off each other and created a cycle of Michigan generating little sustained offensive pressure, taking risks to make up for it and subsequently being punished on the scoreboard. Deficits only meant the cycle would repeat itself. That's how 8-10-2 happened.

Then, something changed.

Over the course of a college hockey season, players grow up. Coaches mix lines up and alter tactics. But it's rare to see a shift in performance as stark as Michigan's. The Wolverines weren't a team playing well and losing due to bad luck. They were playing poorly and losing because of it. Their improved results aren't a fluke or just the percentages evening themselves out. Michigan is considerably better now than it was just eight weeks ago.

Since those defeats against Notre Dame, however, the Wolverines are 10-3-1 and have essentially locked down at least an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. Before that, the Wolverines can make a push for their first Big Ten tournament championship. They host Wisconsin for a best-of-three series in Ann Arbor next weekend.

Michigan has witnessed its underlying numbers improve as much as its record in its last 14 games. The Wolverines have averaged 32.3 shots on goal per game, compared to 31.35 for their opponents. Taking slightly more than 50 percent of the shots in a game doesn't scream national title contender. It's a marked improvement, however.

"We've managed the puck better and emphasized," Pearson said. "Even today (in practice), we designed a drill where once the puck-carrier crossed the offensive blue line, we wanted 20 seconds of possession in the offensive zone. It wasn't just 'get it to the net.' It wasn't just get it in and throw it everywhere. It's more, we want to keep the puck and create better opportunities. Getting pucks to the net has to be part of it, but possessing the puck is as important. I kind of equate it to time of possession in football. You always want to score quickly, but you can't count on that every time. We want to wear the other teams down. We want to possess the puck in their zone for more time than they possess it in ours."

Before the streak, the Wolverines allowed 5.35 more shots per game than they took. Improving that number to such a degree, especially in games they've mostly led, represents a remarkable shift. Michigan playing with more leads late in games also explains the slight uptick in shots allowed; the figure is up .95 in the last 14 games.

Michigan's 10-3-1 run is even more impressive when you consider it's happened without Will Lockwood. The sophomore was injured while representing the United States at the World Junior Championships in early January.

"We lost one of our best players, Will Lockwood, in January," Pearson said. "We have missed him, but we've really rallied. I can't realistically point to that and say 'that's what got us going.' Losing a player like Will Lockwood didn't make us better. I think it's a coincidence. But I definitely think it got a couple guys' attention."

Improved shot generation was always about more than taking more shots for Pearson. Better decision-making and execution in all three zones meant more puck possession, smoother zone entries and exits, and second- and third-chance scoring opportunities — the hallmarks of successful hockey teams at any level.

It also made life easier on Lavigne.

Michigan's improvements with and without the puck meant fewer odd-man rushes and faster, cleaner defensive zone exists. Over the last 14 games, Lavigne's save percentage is .925. For the season, it settles at .911.

The statistical improvements are indicative of less easily observed forms of growth. The Wolverines were always a talented group of players. Pearson and his staff have helped this young Michigan team discover and hone their other skills — puck management and support chief among them.

With the regular season now over, Michigan is all but assured of a few more games and a chance or two to play for trophies. A championship wasn't necessary for Pearson's first season at Michigan to be a success, but it now looks like he'll get more than one shot to claim those titles. Largely because his players started taking more shots.

It's seems so simple when you say it like that.