With the benefit of nearly 250 days of hindsight, Mariano Rajoy’s words a few hours after Spain’s most significant election since its return to democracy appear utterly prescient – if a little on the optimistic side. “I’m going to try to form a government,” the People’s party (PP) leader told supporters early on 21 December last year. “But it won’t be easy.”

Fast-forward eight months, past June’s second inconclusive general election and through a tangle of political deals that have failed to deliver a government, and Spain’s acting prime minister has lost none of his characteristic caution. Asked this week whether he could at least guarantee that the country would have a government by the time the next Olympic Games come around, Rajoy jokingly replied that he didn’t dare speculate.

Many Spaniards share the fear, even if they’re finding it hard to laugh at the quip. The economy may be getting back on track, unemployment falling and tourist numbers hitting record levels, but the country is now facing the real and unwelcome prospect of yet another general election – on 25 December.

Rajoy has accepted the king’s invitation to try to form a government, entered into negotiations with the small, centrist Ciudadanos party, and agreed to submit himself to parliament for a confidence vote at the end of August. But the stalemate is unlikely to be broken: the PP and its new allies simply do not have the numbers.



Facebook Twitter Pinterest Supporters of Mariano Rajoy, Spain’s acting prime minister, and his People’s party. Photograph: Paul White/AP

Unless the socialist PSOE, led by Pedro Sánchez, suddenly abandons its deep opposition to Rajoy and abstains from the vote to allow the PP leader to form a minority government, the impasse will stretch on.

If no agreement is reached within two months of a confidence vote, the king will issue a decree dissolving parliament and fixing an election date 54 days later. With the confidence vote scheduled to begin on 30 August, a new election would fall on Christmas Day – and the significance of this date has not gone unremarked. The PP, however, has denied trying to bully Sánchez into caving, saying the timing is simply down to the electoral calendar.

Although the PP took the most votes in the December and June elections, it was unable to win the 176 seats necessary to give it a majority in Spain’s 350-seat congress of deputies on either occasion. The PSOE – long the PP’s rival – finished second in both polls.



Dissatisfaction with the two political giants, which have occupied the Moncloa palace for the past four decades, combined with the effects of Spain’s economic crisis, gave rise to the two parties that have redefined the political landscape. The far-left Podemos came third in December’s election, winning 21% of the vote, while Ciudadanos finished fourth with 14%.

The anti-austerity party – now known as Unidos Podemos after joining forces with United Left (IU), the leftwing coalition that includes the Communist party of Spain – failed to pull off the much-predicted coup of overtaking the PSOE in June’s election. But its emergence, along with Ciudadanos, has left congress deeply fragmented and bitterly divided, and has revealed just how poorly the new politics fits into the old system.

“There’s a certain exhaustion and very little appetite for a third election, especially if it has to be on 25 December, because the impression is that the second election didn’t provide a solution to the stalemate, and it’s negative in that it just widens the gap between citizens and politicians,” says Antonio Barroso, an analyst at the political risk-advisory firm, Teneo Intelligence. “It’s perceived as, basically, ‘These people can’t get their act together.’ It’s definitely negative in the sense of the confidence of citizens in the political system.”

The frustration and weariness are understandable: while the ship of government has languished in the doldrums, its crew have given the impression of being keener to make each other walk the plank than to plot a joint course towards a viable administration. Rajoy turned down the king’s invitation to try to put together a government after December’s election, knowing he did not have the necessary support. Sánchez’s attempts to do so were thwarted in March by the PP and Podemos.

Pablo Simón, a political science professor at Madrid’s Carlos III University, argues that a fresh election and the attendant politicking could further alienate an already despondent electorate. “We’re talking about an election campaign during the Christmas period, which means that some people won’t be able to eat with their families on Christmas Day because they’ll have to be in polling stations,” he says.

“That will upset things a huge amount and could lead to record levels of abstention in Spain. I think it’s just another way for the PP to pressure Pedro Sánchez, by constructing the argument that we’re having Christmas elections because of the stalemate the other guy’s created.”



Sánchez’s options are limited: any shift towards supporting Rajoy could trigger a leadership race within the PSOE and risk ceding ground to Unidos Podemos, which is keen to establish itself as the pre-eminent voice of the Spanish left.

Emilio Sáenz-Francés, professor of history and international relations at Madrid’s Comillas Pontifical University, says Spain will suffer internally and externally as long as the political paralysis endures. “It’s damaging Spain’s image around the world, but what’s more worrying is that it’s also damaging the already tarnished image that Spanish voters have of their politicians,” he says.

“We’ve been almost without a government for nearly a year, and although most people don’t notice that lack in their day-to-day lives, we’re living in volatile times where a lot of things are changing and where there’s a global terrorist threat that’s already manifested itself in neighbouring countries.



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“You’ve got to bear in mind that Spain’s economic recovery is far from being consolidated and there are many chances for the progress to be undone. In the face of so much danger, it’s better to have a strong government with the capacity to act – and as soon as possible.”



Amid the confusion, squabbling and shifting alliances, however, two things remain clear. Rajoy, a politician who has built his career on riding out storms and waiting for others to make the first move, still maintains the upper hand. The PP was the only party to do better in June’s election than in December’s, increasing its seat count from 123 to 137. In the wake of the Brexit vote and at a time of renewed clamour for Catalan independence – not to mention the scandals engulfing the PP – the 61-year-old Galician remains confident in his showing at the polls and happy to take his time.

Equally apparent is the magnitude of the transition ahead. “This is what happens when you have a political system suffering such a huge transformation,” says Barroso. “It just takes time. The problem is just that the numbers are what they are – and they are diabolical.”