Success in Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) betting is a game of percentages. The beauty of DFS sites like Fanduel and Draftkings is that they match up random people in head to head match ups where, in a perfect world, each has a 50/50 chance of winning. The facilitator sites take a 10% commission for hosting the match up. Therefore in theory anyone that competes on the DFS sites, and limiting their entries to “Head to Head” match-ups should expect to win 50% of their entries while the 10% vig slowly burns through their bankroll.

On to The Matter at Hand





One of the exploitable “flaws” (for lack of a better term) on the DFS sites is the salary algorithm. Using daily fantasy football as the example most of the sites reset their salary algorithm on Sunday night. Once a week’s salary data is locked in it can not change. No one really knows the exact formulas used to create the salaries but that is irrelevant to this subject matter.

Taking Advantage of the Salary Algorithm and Gaining an Edge





There are three ways to take advantage of the inherent “flaws” in the Salary Cap system.

1) Monday Night Effect – Since the salary cap locks on Sunday night, the effect of the Monday night game is not included. When injuries happen on the Monday night game the salary algorithm will not reflect a higher cap price for the backup player now thrust in to a starting role.



2) Mid-Week Injury Updates – The same effect happens when a players injury status is not known until mid-week. Losing a star player to injury in season long leagues is often a crushing blow. By contrast in DFS injuries often represent opportunities. Anytime I can get a backup player (this works best for QB’s and RB’s) thrust in a starting role at a reduced price I jump on it. Our goal in building DFS line-ups (This is specific to Fanduel and Draftkings) is generally to get 2 to 3 fantasy points per $1000 in salary. In the 2013 Season RG3 went down to injury and his backup – Kirk Cousins – was sitting there with a $5000 price tag just waiting to be exploited. Players had a choice, grab Peyton Manning and hope he justifies his $11,000 price tag with a score of 33 or more or grab Cousins and hope he covers his value with 15 fantasy points. Those that took Cousins were freed up to grab more elite options at other positions. In DFS there is always a trade off.

3) Compare and Contrast – This is a point we push in our weekly cheat sheets but is often overlooked. One of the best ways to identify Value Players versus Overvalued Players is to compare two sites salary points and look for major variances. If you’ve read through this blog you already know I play on both Fanduel and Draftkings. One of the reasons I prefer these two sites is they have similar salary caps and the same number of players per team. Yes there are some differences in the scoring systems. Draftkings is a full 1pt PPR while Fanduel is just 1/2Pt PPR and Draftkings uses a 50K cap while Fanduel uses a 60K, but it’s still close enough to make the comparison of salaries between the two sites have merit. If I find a player salary to be much higher on one then the other I generally only use that player on the site in which they are cheaper. Crafting DFS line-ups based around value players is key to gaining an edge on your competition.

Amateurs always go for the big name players. The pro’s know that the key to long term DFS success is finding value and exploiting every possible angle to get a leg up on the competition. Taking advantage of the limitations of the salary algorithm is one of the many tools we use to get just a slight statistical advantage on the competition.