Boehner’s speakership hinges on whether he can emerge with some sort of victory. John Boehner's endgame

As he tries to navigate the politics of a government shutdown that he never wanted, leading a Republican Conference with little interest in being led, House Speaker John Boehner in recent days has scored an unlikely victory of sorts.

Interviews with tea party-aligned House members and other hard-line conservatives reveal a modest if unmistakable rise in support for Boehner — a politician they have previously disdained and tried unsuccessfully to evict from power.


The hard line Boehner has drawn against President Barack Obama — in the face of polls and media coverage indicating the government shutdown is a political debacle for the GOP — has won the Ohio Republican credibility that he previously lacked with conservatives.

( QUIZ: How well do you know John Boehner?)

In an odd turnabout, the grumbling about Boehner’s speakership now is rising from the establishment, old-school Republicans who traditionally have been his base of support. These legislators privately wonder whether Boehner is strong enough to both effectively steer the party and avoid a right-wing revolt.

The interviews reveal unanimity on one point: Boehner’s speakership now hinges on whether he can somehow emerge from the showdowns over funding the government and raising the debt limit with some victory in hand and without a capitulation to Obama and Hill Democrats.

On Tuesday, Boehner and Obama held dueling news conferences to bash each other. Boehner and House Republicans — who have passed a dozen “targeted” spending bills to reopen parts of the government that immediately stalled in the Senate — offered a bicameral, bipartisan “working group” to discuss government spending and entitlement reform. Obama then said he’d be happy to talk as long as the Republicans reopened the government and passed a debt-ceiling increase. Boehner countered by calling such a move an “unconditional surrender” by House Republicans. And the stalemate over the government shutdown ground on into its ninth day, with a default on U.S. debt looming on Oct. 17.

( PHOTOS: 12 lawmakers who didn’t back John Boehner)

Until this week, there was a widespread assumption — even among many Boehner allies in the House — that there was little chance he could win a third term as speaker, even if the GOP keeps its House majority in the 2014 elections. He barely won a second term last January in the face of tea party opposition.

Now, the chain-smoking, low-key Boehner seems to have bought himself some margin — a slim one that could easily disintegrate under the pressure of upcoming events.

“I think this has been his best two weeks ever as speaker of the House because he’s doing the things that we have been trying to get him to do since … 2011 when we actually were sworn in,” said Rep. John Fleming (R-La.), a strong conservative. Less than a year ago, Fleming was publicly rebuking Boehner for his handling of the “fiscal cliff” talks with Obama.

Boehner’s performance “is much better than it was,” added Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-Kan.). “He’s identified our key principles that goes back to what we agreed on in” a January Republican retreat.

( POLITICO's full coverage of the government shutdown)

“Right now, he could be elected,” said a top House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “Two weeks ago, no. And talk to me when this is all over, I may have something new for you.”

The question some have is why the speaker would even want the job under his current circumstances, in which Boehner must practice a brand of confrontation and scorched-earth politics that so obviously runs counter to his own deal-making instincts.

“Boehner could win, but I don’t know why he would want to,” said another Boehner ally.

The intense speculation about his future is a reflection of how much the current standoff, in the eyes of some Republicans, is now fundamentally about John Boehner.

The issue is not, as it was in 2011 and 2012, about any behind-the-scenes rivalry with House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), a dynamic that has largely receded in 2013. It is not even, any longer, solely about conservative animus toward Obamacare. It is a power conflict in which Boehner is trying to do what he loves most — play the role of deal-maker — while his moves and motives are being watched with as much wariness among Republicans as they are among the Democratic opposition.

( WATCH: President Barack Obama: 'I'm ready to head up to the Hill')

This dynamic is why the question consuming Washington and the country during the federal government shutdown — “How does this end?” — is inextricably linked to a more personal question, “How does this end for Boehner?”

Capitol Hill has become consumed in recent days with what can be summarized as three distinct scenarios for answering that question:

• The magic trick scenario

This is the one that the 63-year-old Boehner has been hoping for during the past 30 months. The belief is that by hanging in there long enough, buying time with his own party and letting the showdown with Obama play out long enough that he gains credibility with conservatives, the conditions will be ripe for what Boehner really wants. That is a long-term budget deal with the White House that would tackle long-term spending in entitlement programs and advance tax reform — both long-sought goals among many Republicans.

( POLITICO's full coverage of the debt ceiling)

The rising chatter among some House Republicans about the possibility of using the showdown over opening the government and raising the $16.7 trillion federal debt limit in exchange for a “down payment” on the national debt and deficit reflects that viewpoint. Under this thinking, Boehner will finally be acknowledged as a legislative master — ensuring a substantial legacy for the speaker and a worthy reward for the numerous setbacks and humiliations he has endured at the hands of his own party.

The problem with this scenario is the same one that thwarted such efforts previously over the past few years. It does not account for the degree to which hard-core conservatives in Republican ranks will balk at anything that Boehner is also for — despite his growing credibility on the right. The conflict is not simply ideological but also emotional.

Regarding tea party Republicans and junior members, Boehner privately believes it his job to “protect these guys from hurting themselves.” While broadly sympathetic to their ideas against excessive government and regulation and in favor of free markets, he believes they will damage themselves and the party with a strategy of nonstop confrontation.

At heart a pragmatist and conciliator, Boehner believes — in a worldview that is similar to Obama’s — that if you give people a set of facts and possible solutions a common-sense compromise is nearly always possible. Principles are important, but they are elastic enough to accommodate different circumstances.

But this attitude — “Trust me, this will be good for you” — is a big part of why Boehner has so many problems with his caucus. They see his style as fundamentally condescending and cynical, and it infuriates them more than the specifics of most policy disputes.

• The blaze of glory scenario

This scenario is the fantasy of many in Washington’s permanent establishment — political operatives, editorialists, lobbyists and the like.

It involves Boehner announcing he’s mad as hell with Washington’s stalemate and not going to take it anymore. Under this scenario, Boehner says what by all indications he really thinks — closing down the government is a foolish strategy — confronts the right-wing flank of the GOP conference, and tells them they can either follow him in negotiating some kind of long-term budget compromise with Obama or they can get themselves a new speaker. Under some incarnations of this scenario, Boehner announces in advance that he is resigning no matter what — in order to make it all the more clear that he is acting out of principle rather than out of any interest in saving his own hide.

It all has a dramatic ring to it — if only Frank Capra or Paddy Chayefsky could be exhumed to direct an end to Washington’s budget standoff.

But there are several problems with the blaze-of-glory scenario.

Boehner seemed to pour cold water on it this past Sunday when he told ABC’s George Stephanopolous that he would not put a “clean” debt-ceiling bill on the House floor, boosting the chances of U.S. default on its debt.

And there is no particular reason to presume that a dramatic follow-me-or-else gesture would really change the underlying dynamic in Washington. Many conservatives would take it as vindication of their previous view that Boehner was not one of them, and liberals as a sign that the tea party can’t be reasoned with, making confrontation the only reasonable course.

What’s more, there is nothing in Boehner’s career to date that suggests he is ready to force a confrontation like this with his own party. He lost power once before: When Gingrich was forced out of the speakership after the 1998 elections, Boehner was also bounced from his leadership position as the chairman of the House Republican Conference.

Through shrewd maneuvering, hard work and a political style that always preserves room to fight again another day, Boehner worked his way back to become House majority leader in 2006 and stayed on as minority leader after Democrats won the House later that year. The 2010 elections brought Republicans back to power and vaulted Boehner into the speaker’s chair, but also elected many of the tea party and libertarian conservatives now tormenting him.

This is a group whose members Boehner has no ability to discipline through fear — he can’t cut off their earmarks or special projects because these don’t exist anymore — or favor, since they have their own base of power with GOP activists. As one Republican leadership aide said: “All these guys do is get two inches to the right of us, and then they fundraise off it.”

For all the frustrations, Boehner still seems to enjoy the perquisites and prestige of his position. On Sept. 29, after a weekend of votes tying government funding to a delay of Obamacare, a group of House conservatives held a news conference on the Senate steps demanding the Democratic leader, Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada, bring the Senate in to take up the House bill.

Boehner wasn’t there. He went to play golf at the exclusive Burning Tree Country Club in the Maryland suburbs — no female members, and no cell phones on the course.

• The ash in the mouth scenario

This is precisely the scenario that Boehner has spent the past three years trying to avoid — a loss of influence that leads to his ouster, or an electoral loss that hurls House Republicans back into the minority.

Yet Boehner allies concede that this is in fact the most likely scenario if he and other GOP leaders do not navigate the next few weeks wisely, with both the government shutdown and debt-ceiling issues playing out in a zero-sum political context whose resolution requires capitulation by one side or the other.

History does not offer many examples to inspire Boehner.

The reality in the modern era is that most speakerships — in both parties — end on a sour note. Boehner got the job from Nancy Pelosi, whose history-making status as the first female speaker saw her targeted by tens of millions of dollars’ worth of GOP campaign ads before voters ousted the Democrats in 2010. She took the job from Republican Dennis Hastert of Illinois, who was limping to a final term before voters — turned off by what they saw as the scandal-tainted and overly partisan House Republican majority — tossed out his party in 2006.

Hastert was preceded by Newt Gingrich, who got bounced by his own party, tired of his egocentric leadership style, following a weak GOP showing in the 1998 election. Gingrich vaulted to power four years earlier by wresting the speaker’s gavel from Democrat Tom Foley, in the historic “Republican Revolution” of 1994. Foley took the job from Texan Jim Wright, who resigned amid financial controversy.

Yet Boehner, as he always does, seems sanguine about what comes next for him — at least on the outside.

In a recent meeting of “Team Boehner,” a small group of his closest GOP allies in the House, Boehner told them he “had been in a bad place personally” as he contemplated a shutdown and debt default, and what it could mean for the country.

But Boehner then said he had decided to accept “whatever comes my way and be grateful for it.”

“It was very uplifting,” said one GOP lawmaker who was there.

Seung Min Kim contributed to this report.