All it will take for Central Texas to become the next area engulfed by catastrophic wildfires like those seen in Australia is a dry spring and summer, an errant flame and sustained winds.

Travis County fire officials say the likelihood of such a megafire event is just a matter of time.

A recent report released by CoreLogic, an online property data service, ranked Austin fifth among metropolitan areas in the nation most at risk for wildfires. The only others in the country at a greater risk are in California, according to the study.

As the world watches and mourns over the wildfire devastation plaguing Australia, residents need only look out their window to see a landscape similar to the one Australians admired before their wildfires began.

Daniel Shaw, an Australian who has worked for the U.S. National Weather Service as a storm spotter, said his home country also built on the edges of preservation areas like Austin’s western wildlands.

And, like residential growth near grassy areas east of Interstate 35, population growth in Australia has pushed neighborhoods closer and closer to wild grasslands.

Shaw said if Austin’s wildlands catch fire and embers blow into those grasslands, firefighters would struggle to extinguish the flames before another fire would start up nearby.

"If you’ve got fuel to burn and winds to drive it, then you’re going to have a fast-running fire whether it’s grasslands or bush," Shaw said.

Bob Nicks, president of the Austin firefighters union, said Austin’s lack of sustained winds are now the only thing protecting Austin from a similar fate.

However, he said Austin’s luck will eventually run dry.

"A 20-mph wind is devastating if it’s sustained and blowing in one direction," Nicks said. "It’s just a matter of when it happens, not if it happens."

Nicks said Central Texas frequently experiences two of the key components for wildfires, dry conditions and triple-digit temperatures, from June through September during the summer wildfire season. However, sustained winds, the third factor that fuels the fires and pushes them forward in a singular direction, are less frequent.

If a wildfire were sparked in West Austin during hot, dry conditions with sustained winds, there would be no stopping it from destroying everything in its path, Nicks said.

"When a fire reaches a certain size, you cannot stop the progression forward," he said. "There is not enough water or personnel to put a dent on the head of that fire. You cannot stop it."

‘Climate change does have something to do with it’

In 2011, as Central Texas vegetation withered during a historic drought, the most destructive wildfire in state history burned more than 34,000 acres. The Bastrop Complex Fire destroyed 1,660 homes, killed two people and injured 12 others.

In Travis County, the 2011 wildfire season sparked 76 blazes and burned 9,835 acres, according to data collected by the Texas A&M Forest Service.

The 2011 season was the most devastating in recent history for Texas, with a statewide total of 30,896 fires and more than 9.9 million acres burned, the data said.

Even before the Bastrop Complex Fire, the forest service in 2008 tallied 175 fires that burned an average of 658 acres in Travis County alone. The next year, 50 fires burned an average of 95 acres in the county.

However, after 2011 the total number of fires and acres burned decreased significantly. The highest number of fires from 2011 through 2017 was in 2013 with 74 fires and 109 acres burned.

The 2018 and 2019 fire seasons were mild because of significant rainfall, said Randy Denzer, a vice president for the Austin Firefighters Association and a member of the International Association of Firefighters Wildland Firefighting Task Force. Only 107 acres burned in those years.

However, Denzer said, the increased moisture and lack of fires have allowed vegetation to overgrow. Because of this, Central Texas is now at an extreme risk for wildfires, he said.

"The grasses are what carries the fires, and we have an overabundance now," Denzer said. "If we have a dry spring, we will be right back to where we were in 2011 by August of this year."

Although Central Texas received above-average rainfall in the first part of 2019, severe or extreme drought covered nearly the entire five-county Austin metro area by the fall, according to data from the U.S. Drought Monitor. Severe drought or extreme drought — which can include major crop or pasture losses and widespread water shortages or restrictions — are just below the U.S. Drought Monitor’s worst condition, exceptional drought.

Extreme drought affected about 9.4% of Texas by October, including most of Hays and Travis counties.

Austin recorded 57 days last year when temperatures reached or surpassed 100 degrees, according to data collected at the city’s main weather station at Camp Mabry. The highest temperature recorded was 105 degrees.

Denzer said climate change, which is causing drought conditions to persist throughout the state and temperatures to rise into the 100s more frequently, is putting Central Austin at greater risk for fires.

"Climate change does have something to do with it," Denzer said. "Higher temperatures provide drier fuels, which creates better conditions for fires. Just a couple of degrees makes a difference.

"There is a bigger role, though, that is made by humans," he said. "Everyone wants to live in an area with a pretty view. But now we can’t have a fire burn in that area, so we have to stop it."

More than 53,000 residential properties in Austin are in the high to extreme risk zone for wildfires, according to the CoreLogic data. The cost of reconstruction in those areas would be approximately $16.4 billion, the data show.

Justice Jones, an Austin Fire Department wildfire mitigation officer, said where fire occurs in Austin greatly affects the risks and intensity of the fire.

Jones said grass fires are seen daily during peak fire season in areas east of Interstate 35. Those fires are often less intense because of less vegetation in the east, fire experts agree.

However, western Travis County, where residential areas intermingle with wooded areas, is at risk of devastating, uncontrollable wildfires during hot, dry months because of dense vegetation.

"Right now, Austin as a whole is at risk of wildfires," Denzer said. "West Austin, though, is at risk of 50-foot (tall) wildfires that are unstoppable. Any fires along unmanaged wildland areas, no matter how small they are, will be devastating."

Austin’s conservation efforts have set aside 30% of land within the city limits for natural areas. As Austin began to experience rapid population growth, construction of residential homes expanded closer to these preservation areas, which put that land at a greater risk of wildfires.

Carrie Stewart, the Fire Department’s wildfire division chief, said once a wildfire does start, its embers can blow over a mile and can easily ignite other wooded areas or homes.

"Those wildland fires can happen anywhere we have those large, open green spaces," Stewart said. "That’s going to be all over the city of Austin where we have those risk areas."

The Texas A&M Forest Service created a risk assessment portal to show which parts of Travis County are at a greater risk with current weather conditions.

As of Tuesday, nearly every green space in or around Austin was listed as at a high to very high risk of wildfires.

Insurance risks and fire prevention

In California, an estimated 350,000 home and business owners were unable to find insurance agencies that would cover their properties after that state’s most deadly wildfire season in 2018, according to media reports.

Texas Department of Insurance spokesperson Jerry Hagins said insurance agencies base their coverage costs on long-term historical data, so the more wildfires that occur in a particular area the greater the risk of insurance prices skyrocketing or the insured being dropped altogether.

Hagins said because Austin has yet to experience consistent megafire events over the past 10 to 20 years, he does not expect Travis County to suffer from the same insurance woes as California in the near future.

"California is pretty different from Texas in the frequency of wildfires and the severity of them," Hagins said. "But, we still do have that risk. We don’t see rate changes after a single event because they are factored in for the long-term average."

However, Denzer disagrees.

"I think in the near future people will have issues finding affordable insurance if we don’t do something about this," he said. "The CoreLogic data is for insurance investors. Insurance companies are going to start taking a look at this data and they are going to start looking into these risks."

There is something Austin officials can do to help prevent wildfires and decrease the risk of rising insurance costs, experts say, but the fix isn’t cheap.

This year, Austin City Council could vote on a $1.5 million plan that would require all new homes and businesses constructed near wildland areas to follow a wildland urban interface, or WUI, code.

The new code would mandate that all new structures in those areas be built with ignition-resistant materials to protect them from burning embers, which often set buildings ablaze in a wildfire when they fall on wooden roofs, blow in through vents or lodge under boards.

Examples of ignition-resistant materials include double-paned glass windows and noncombustible screens over attic vents. Remodeled properties and new construction would have to comply.

Nicks said while any code is better than no code at all, the City Council is only considering a portion of the full WUI code.

"The one they have up for council soon will have the least impact on risks today," Nicks said. "A properly written code would give the authority to mitigate fuels on certain property, which is a very big part of risk reduction. We’re disappointed it doesn’t include old construction."

Later this month, Nicks said, he and his team will welcome wildfire experts from California to revisit the area and assess the risks and offer advice on how local officials can address a growing concern for wildfires in West Austin.

Denzer said he hopes the experts’ opinions will push the City Council to consider adopting the full WUI code, which would hold landowners responsible for decreasing wildfire risks on their own properties.

"I’m happy it’s moving forward, but it does not do enough," Denzer said. "Adopting the full code is an investment, but it would reduce the risks of wildfires and of property insurance rates going up."