OTTAWA—Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer are neck-and-neck on the question of who Canadians think would make the best prime minister, new data from Forum Research suggests.

When asked who would make the best prime minister after this October’s federal election, Scheer and Trudeau are tied at 28 per cent of respondents, followed by Elizabeth May (14 per cent) and Jagmeet Singh (7 per cent).

That’s a problem for the prime minister, said Forum Research President Lorne Bozinoff.

“It’s never good when you’re the prime minister and … you’re tied with somebody else. (Trudeau) should be way ahead, he should be at like 40 per cent,” Bozinoff.

“It does show that the stuff that’s been going on in the past six months have taken a toll on him personally, and you can see it in that number.”

But Bozinoff pointed out that Scheer’s numbers are inflated by incredibly strong support in the Prairies, particularly in Alberta. The Conservatives are going to win those seats anyway, Bozinoff said, calling the abundance of western support “wasted votes.”

The same regional discrepancies hold true in other questions Forum put to voters on the economy and the environment.

The top-level numbers show the Conservatives and Liberals roughly tied on which party would do best for the economy — 38 per cent for the Conservatives to the Liberals 32 per cent.

But east of the Manitoba border, more people believe the Liberals — who have presided over four years of relatively good economic times — are best equipped to handle economic files. That dynamic flips in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, where strong majorities side with the Conservatives.

On the environment, almost half of respondents said the Green party would be best party for the environment (48 per cent). Despite the Liberals loudly proclaiming their environmental bona fides, and the criticism heaped upon the Conservatives about their environmental plan without actual targets, the two main parties were tied at 15 per cent.

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Bozinoff said the Green’s dominance on the environmental question has a lot to do with their branding.

“That’s basically all they’ve been talking about for the last eight years … This is the year of the environment, and they’re going to benefit from that,” Bozinoff said, pointing to the Greens performing well in recent provincial elections.

“We don’t know who the close second is in this. Best is best … It shows the benefit of branding over time and becoming synonymous with an issue.”

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Voters also expect the upcoming federal election to be close. When asked who they expect will win the next election, 38 per cent said the Conservatives, while 36 per cent believed the Liberals will win another mandate. The same regional dynamic was in play, however, with Atlantic Canada, Quebec and Ontario thinking it’s more likely the Liberals will form the next government.

Forum conducted an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,733 voting-aged Canadians between July 26 and July 28. The results are considered accurate within three percentage points. Regional breakdowns have smaller sample sizes, and therefore would have larger margins of error.

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