O n Tuesday, MPs will vote on the Brexit deal Prime Minister Theresa May negotiated with the European Union (EU). Like in January, it is widely expected to be voted down. The main reason for this is that nothing has changed.

January 15th 2019, Theresa May’s deal was rejected by a majority of 220 votes. This the biggest defeat ever for a sitting government. Usually a defeat of this magnitude would bring down a government. However, we are in strange times.

The current government was found in contempt of parliament and still they carried on. The Prime Minister is intent of ploughing on regardless.

After the defeat in January, May told the House of Commons she would go back to the EU to gain assurances on the Irish backstop. The backstop is what so many MPs have issues with, no more so than The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) which the government rely on to retain a majority.

What Is The Irish Backstop?

The “Irish backstop” is effectively an insurance policy in UK-EU Brexit negotiations. It’s meant to make sure that the Irish border remains open, as it is today, whatever the outcome of the UK and the EU’s future relationship negotiations.

Under the backstop, the whole of the UK enters a “single customs territory” with the EU. There are many parts to this but essentially there will be no tariffs on trade in goods between the UK and the EU and some, but not all, trade restrictions will be removed.

However, it is the next part that MPs have an issue with.

Should the backstop be activated, Northern Ireland would remain aligned to some extra rules of the EU’s single market to ensure the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will remain open as it is today.

These separate regulations for Northern Ireland mean there would be some checks on goods entering Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. The DUP say this is unacceptable as it does not respect the territorial integrity of the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland.

The deal also commits the UK to maintaining a “level playing field” in some areas with the EU by adopting measures to ensure it doesn’t get an unfair competitive advantage.

This, say MPs in favour of Brexit, would mean the UK is implementing Brexit by name only as it would stop the UK from being able to negotiate its own trade deals.

What’s more, it is unclear if the UK could void the backstop without the EU’s approval.

The EU argue that the backstop is an insurance policy they hope not to use as they believe a Trade Deal can be struck within the two year “transition period.”

Progress Since January’s Defeat

Prime Minister Theresa May MP | Credit: EU2017EE Flickr — CC BY-ND 2.0

Since January Theresa May has been under fire from all sides. Even before the defeat the European Union said the Withdrawal Agreement would not be reopened.

Regardless, May told MPs she would seek to reopen the deal to get extra assurances on the backstop. That plan failed immediately. The EU made clear the current deal was the only deal.

They did offer an olive branch by offering extra assurances but so far this has not been enough.

On February 14th, May suffered another humiliating defeat on Brexit. She had asked MPs to back her “negotiating strategy.” The vote carried no legal force and May blamed Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn for the loss despite some of her own MPs either voting against or abstaining from backing her.

The Prime Minister’s office told the BBC;

“He [Jeremy Corbyn] yet again put partisan considerations ahead of the national interest” “While we didn’t secure the support of the Commons this evening, the prime minister continues to believe, and the debate itself indicated, that far from objecting to securing changes to the backstop that will allow us to leave with a deal, there was a concern from some Conservative colleagues about taking no deal off the table at this stage.”

Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn MP | Credit: DAVID HOLT Flickr — CC BY 2.0

Then came a significant development, one May wasn’t expecting. Having refrained from backing a new referendum, Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn said that should nothing change Labour would support a new vote to to prevent a “damaging Tory Brexit”.

He wasn’t clear on what the question would be but, it did raise the hopes of those calling for a so-called; People’s Vote.

The Commons were meant to hold a “meaningful vote” on May’s deal on February 28th but, facing defeat, the government pushed the final vote back to March 12th, just over two weeks before the UK are due to leave the EU.

Opposition parties accused The Prime Minister of “running down the clock” so that the current deal was the only option left to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

Theresa May and her Minister’s claimed that it was to allow more time to gain the legal assurances MPs are seeking on the Irish backstop.

Where Are We Now?

This Tuesday, March 12th will see MPs hold the final vote on Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement. Like before, it is widely expected to be defeated. This is because no extra binding assurances have been obtained from the EU.

The long and short of it is, nothing has changed since January’s defeat.

The European Unions Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier Tweeted on March 8th to outline the progress made between the EU and UK.

In the 5 tweet thread, it was the 4th that drew the most attention. He repeats the assertion the the UK will be able to leave the customs union but “other elements of the backstop must be maintained to avoid a hard border.” In other words, Northern Ireland will remain part of the Single Market and Customs Union.

This means; Northern Ireland which is part of the United Kingdom, would have to enforce import/export tariffs on the rest of the UK due to them remaining within the EU’s trading block.

This statement by Barnier was the last nail in the coffin for May’s deal. It was unlikely to pass anyway but this just ensured it.

So If MPs Don’t Back May’s Deal, What Will They Support?

The Prime Minister, aware of the impending defeat, told MPs that they would get a series of votes should her deal be rejected on March 12th.

If her deal is defeated MPs will vote on March 13th whether they back a No-Deal Brexit. ie: Leaving with no agreement and trading on World Trading Organisation (WTO)terms.

Parliament will almost certainly vote against backing a no-deal. The risks of a hard Brexit are deemed too damaging by MPs. This then leads us to the most significant vote on March 14th.

If we get to March 14th with May’s deal and a no-deal Brexit being rejected, Parliament will vote on whether to extend Article 50, the mechanism which started the process of the UK’s exit from the EU.

There are several questions that remain unanswered on this motion.

One, it is unclear the length of time the government will propose Article 50 is extended.

Two; Whilst the UK may want to extend Article 50, for this to happen the remaining 27 EU member states must agree to this too.

Three; The European Parliament Elections take place and should the UK remain in the EU past June 30th 2019 it would be required to take part in the EU elections.

Theresa May told the Commons;

“an extension beyond the end of June would mean the UK taking part in the European parliament elections” and that “a short extension — not beyond the end of June — would almost certainly have to be a one-off. If we had not taken part in the European parliament elections, it would be extremely difficult to extend again, so it would create a much sharper cliff edge in a few months’ time.”

Finally; Say an extension is granted until June 30th or perhaps beyond, what then? May is determined that another referendum won’t be held. She repeatedly states that it betrays the 17.4 million who voted for Brexit.

Those in favour of a People’s Vote say, people didn’t know what they were voting for, with others also citing the illegal spending practices that occurred during the original referendum by the leave side.

Those against a second vote say that if the result of the original 2016 referendum isn’t enacted, trust in democracy will be lost.

A few hard line Brexiteers even claim some voted for a hard Brexit. There is little to no evidence that a majority support a hard Brexit.

No Majority, No Idea, No Direction

The Palace of Westminster (Houses of Parliament) and The Elizabeth Clock Tower (Big Ben) | Credit: Diliff: Wikimedia — CC BY-SA 2.5

By the end of the week, the state of UK politics may be very different. It looks increasingly likely that a sitting government will be defeated on a major bill for a second time in three months.

MPs will likely have voted to extend Article 50 but, with no clear plan on what do next. Opposition parties could table a vote of no confidence in the government in an attempt to trigger a General Election. However, like in January, this is unlikely to pass as Conservative MPs won’t vote themselves out of government.

Theresa May will be a lame duck Prime Minister. With no majority in parliament for her deal, no idea what to do next some suspect she may resign.

If that happens, the circus that is UK politics 2019 will go into overdrive. While the Conservatives look for a new leader the United Kingdom will be days away from a no deal Brexit.

Should an Article 50 extension go past June 30th, we will have European Elections to vote in, possibly a People’s Vote and even a General Election.

The option to unilaterally revoke Article is also an option as the European Court affirmed that it is possible to revoke Article . However, currently there is nowhere near a majority to support this. MPs are aware that stopping the process completely would set a dangerous precedent.

If you’ve managed to read through this without getting lost well done. For those who didn’t, you’re in the same position as most.

We have no idea where we are heading or even what we want.

After three years of arguing, smearing and divisiveness, we might end up not even leaving the European Union. If that happens, already low trust in UK politics could sink further. The political landscape changed forever.