Illegal immigration is an issue that won’t go away any time soon. It has returned as a controversial issue in all of the major recent elections. Trump tapped into the frustrations of many in part by hitting the issue consistently. The elections won by Obama contained these discussions as well. This isn’t to say that this is the issue that lead these two candidates to victory, but it does show that this issue is around to stay, and will remain an important part of the US government’s policy.

Good policy is based on good facts, truths, and findings that lead us in the direction of solving the problems that face us. Just like a hiker with his/her map and compass, without a concrete understanding of where we are now, it would be impossible to expect ourselves to end up at our intended destination. Let’s look at what our scholars have to say to see if we can get our bearings. And then with more of the facts, maybe we can return to the civil and blessedly boring primary debates like we had with Bush and Reagan in 1980…



Note: I use the terms “illegal immigrant”, “undocumented immigrant”, and “unauthorized immigrant” throughout this post. Other sites or organizations may use these terms to mean different things, but in this post I (somewhat irresponsibly) mean the same thing each time.

The Overall Population

The numbers vary depending on the methodologies of each policy institute’s research, but because they all come to around the same numbers we can assume that the truth is not very far off. The PEW Research Center (PEW) states that there were “11.1 million unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. in 2014”, the Center for Migration Studies (CMS) puts the number at 10.9 million in 2014, and the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) mentions in their report that there were 11.4 million as of January 2012, and 11.5 million in January 2011. While that is a modest decrease, both organizations agree that it is too small a difference to claim a significant loss in overall population in 2011-2014.

Though if you look back further in time, there is a notable downward trend. CMS notes that since 2008, the population has “fallen by more than a million”, and that the last time the illegal immigrant population was below 11 million was 2004.

Remember – population totals aren’t the whole story

It is important to note that the population is not static: immigration numbers are always deceiving because there is always going to be a flow in and out of the country. While the overall number is declining, there are still individuals who enter the US without proper documentation. The graph below also comes out of the CMS report. A positive number means the population grew, and a negative number shows a decline.

Another very important aspect of the above information is that this does not show the change of demographics in specific communities. The frustration over illegal immigration that is felt by many is most likely rooted in their own experiences, or of those they know (though I could be wrong about that). The overall US population may decrease, but a solid 59% of undocumented immigrants reside in only six of the fifty states (PEW), meaning that many cities may actually have an upward trend in their own unauthorized population. Couple that with how people often project their own experiences onto the rest of the world, and the frustration that many people feel over the issue becomes pretty understandable.

Well, then what are the numbers for your county? MPI has a pretty impressive page on their site that allows you to look really specifically into each state and their major counties, and breaks down the numbers by age, years of residence in the USA, marital status, education levels, etc. For example, I found that 49% of illegally immigrated adults in Salt Lake City, Utah have a GED/high school education and greater. The PEW Center also has a page that shows population levels over time for states as well as from individual origin nations.

Who are illegal immigrants?

We have already found that the basic population totals conflict with a lot of today’s political rhetoric. Perhaps the composition of the illegal immigrant population will also shed some light on the true nature of the issue.

In the report that was previously cited, MPI breaks down where illegal immigrants have come from. This is taken directly from their site:

According to MPI estimates, about 7.8 million unauthorized immigrants present in the United States in the 2009-13 period (71 percent of the total unauthorized population) were born in Mexico and other Central America countries. About 1.5 million (14 percent) were from Asia; 690,000 (6 percent) from South America; 423,000 (4 percent) from Europe, Canada, or Oceania; 342,000 (3 percent) from Africa; and 260,000 (2 percent) from the Caribbean.

That means that 29% of the unauthorized population is not born in Mexico or other Central American countries. Another interesting point is that there are more illegal immigrants from Asia than from South America. Considering this, illegal immigration is no longer just an issue to be fought over with Mexico. In fact, PEW states that “52% of all unauthorized immigrants in 2014” were originally Mexico, leaving 48% to other nations of origin.

Good policy will have to take into account the roughly 3.2 million people that have found their way to the United States from parts of the world other than Mexico and Central America. It also goes to show that race needn’t be an included factor to the discussion.

Taking into account the workplace and the home

A striking statistic that does well at humanizing illegal immigration numbers (because yes, we are talking about people here, not numbers!) is that around 5.1 million children under the age of 18 live with one or two parents who are undocumented immigrants (MPI). A related point made by PEW is that 66% of the adults had lived in the US for at least ten years as of 2014, which means that many of these parents have put down significant roots. The tone of the conversation really does change when you consider that simple deportation has a real effect on families.

There are also economic consideration to be made. In 2014, around 8 million individuals within the US workforce were undocumented immigrants. The question of deportation becomes even further complicated by how integral many of these people are to American business. Interestingly, another hot issue of the recent election was economic difficulty and lost jobs — how about a downsize worth 8 million people?

Granted, the economic considerations for immigration policy are much more complicated than the above point, but the numbers remain. There is real danger when we talk numbers much like we have and forget to remember that “8 million individuals” means “8 million fathers, mothers, children, employees, friends, and so on. Much like George Bush Sr. notes in the video above (no matter how sincere), these are good people too!

Real facts, real policy, real people

To cite one final finding from the CMS report: “With the exception of Alabama and possibly Georgia, restrictive state immigration laws in 2010-2011 had little impact on undocumented population trends“. Where did we go wrong? Perhaps we get ahead of ourselves and forget to check the facts. In the end, if we are to help both the people who have found their way to our nation without documentation and the people that feel frustrated by their arrival, we need to craft policy that takes into account the true nature of the illegal immigrant population.