When is this city going to start making major rapid transit expansion decisions based on sound costing and benefits analysis? Mayor John Tory has promised value-for-money transit decisions. Instead he has a history of pandering for votes with questionable transit promises.

Scarborough is a prime example. He has encouraged voters there to think they deserve a subway simply because other parts of Toronto have subway service. Tory argues, “When people say $3 billion is too much to spend on a subway, the inference seems to be that’s too much to spend on that part of the city.”

No. I’m saying that shouldn’t be the rationale for making a multi-billion dollar transit decision.

All the studies leading up to council’s July decision to support a subway showed the LRT to be the best choice based comparisons of benefits and cost.

Metrolinx recommended replacing the aging RT with a modern LRT. They concluded a subway “was not a worthwhile use of money.”

An expert panel established by Toronto City Council also recommended an LRT saying it is superior on all counts: cost, economic development, transit service and sustainability, and social impact.

A Pembina Institute report concluded an LRT would deliver twice as much transit service for every dollar invested. They forecast only 23 million annual riders with a subway compared to 31 million for an LRT.

In value-for-money terms it was clear that a $3.2 billion (for now) vanity subway shouldn’t have even been on the table. So why did Toronto council vote in favour of a one- stop subway over a more affordable and accessible seven-stop LRT?

The Star’s Jennifer Pagliaro has provided part of the answer. She uncovered a secret, TTC memo that was leaked to the media just before the Scarborough transit extension vote. It claimed the LRT option would cost $2.97 billion, up from earlier estimates of $1.8 billion.

One councillor has already said the new cost estimate for the LRT influenced his vote in favour of the subway option. That’s likely true for others. Was that the purpose of the TTC memo?

It’s now clear the memo was misleading. It estimated the cost of the LRT at $2.97 billion by escalating its completion date to that of the subway (2026). When the LRT is costed at its completion date of 2020 it remains at $1.8 billion.

So why would the TTC provide a misleading memo a couple of weeks before the vote? TTC CEO, Andy Byford claims it was not directed by anyone to contribute the bombshell report. We “…anticipated this issue would be raised and took the initiative to prepare a briefing note …”

But questioned by a council member during the debate Byford told a different story. He said the TTC was “asked to provide” a cost comparison of the LRT for the same opening date as the subway (which artificially increased the LRT cost). Byford says he cannot remember who asked for the cost comparison — the one he also said was a TTC staff initiative.

The morning after the vote Byford congratulated his staff in an effusive email, “…a big thank you and a massive well done for your fabulous work on the transit report.” One has to wonder why the report warranted such praise the day after the subway vote. Especially if, as Byford claims, it was just a “professional” technical memo anticipating possible council questions, issued two weeks before the subway debate.

Byford’s explanation raises the serious question of whether the TTC staff provided council with an objective briefing memo. Or, was their misleading report in response to a quiet request from senior political sources at city hall that had a vested interest in the subway option? Or, was Byford & Co. simply currying favour with the mayor and his subway allies?

Agencies like Metrolinx, the TTC and city staff work in the midst of ever-gathering political storms. I know from experience at the TTC and Canada Post what it’s like to be leaned on by political leaders who want you to endorse their predisposed positions.

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There is no excuse for political pressure or for bending to political pressure. Mayor Tory, who claims he’s committed to “fact-based transparent processes”, should move quickly to have this TTC briefing episode clarified. Anything less leaves the validity of council’s decision on the Scarborough subway in doubt.

R. Michael Warren is a former corporate director, TTC chief general manager, Ontario deputy minister and Canada Post CEO. r.michael.warren@gmail.com

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