A new poll about the race to represent the 49th Congressional District shows that Asm. Rocky Chávez, R-Oceanside, has moved into first with a significant lead.

Businessman Paul Kerr has surged to 8 percent, up from 1 percent in February.

In the top-two primary, the race is turning into a contest for second-place.

A new poll shows that Republican Assemblyman Rocky Chávez has taken a clear lead over 15 other candidates running to replace Rep. Darrell Issa in Congress and has overtaken Democrat Doug Applegate, the previous frontrunner.

In a SurveyUSA poll by 10News and The San Diego Union-Tribune, Chávez, of Oceanside, has support of 16 percent of likely voters, putting him ahead of Applegate, a lawyer, who was favored by 12 percent of voters and is in second place.

The top two vote-getters in June, regardless of party, will proceed to a November runoff election. Competing with Applegate for the No. 2 spot is Democrat Mike Levin, also a lawyer, with support of 9 percent of voters. Several other candidates were right at his heels. Democratic Businessman Paul Kerr and Board of Equalization member Diane Harkey, R-Dana Point, were tied for fourth at 8 percent each.

They are all running to represent the 49th District, an area that runs from La Jolla to Dana Point. Incumbent Issa, R-Vista, is not running for re-election.


The survey, which was conducted April 6 through 10, shows several changes in the race since the last U-T/10News survey in February. Chávez has moved from second place to first, but dropped one percentage point as more candidates have entered the race since then.

Applegate has slipped from first to second and dropped six percentage points, a slide that came amid limited his public appearances. He saw the biggest drop among the candidates who appeared in both polls. Front-runners often make a strategic decision to avoid appearances alongside their opponents because they often turn into a punching bag.

Democrats Kerr and Sara Jacobs have both picked up ground after each aired a series of television commercials. In February Jacobs, a former non-profit executive, was sixth overall and third among Democrats with support from 5 percent of voters. The latest poll shows she’s at 7 percent and remains at sixth overall, but is now fourth among Democrats.


Jacobs’ drop in her party was due to a surge by Kerr. In February he polled at 1 percent, but now he’s at 8 percent, putting him right between Levin and Jacobs. A first-time candidate who is self-financing much of his campaign, Kerr aired early television commercials including one that focused on his childhood in a working-class family, a sick mother, and his time in the Navy and working minimum-wage jobs before becoming an immensely successful in real estate.

While she made multiple television appearances on Fox News to discuss her support for a Trump administration lawsuit against California laws that provide sanctuary for some undocumented immigrants, a move that could bolster her name identification, county Supervisor Kristin Gaspar, R-Encinitas, polled at 5 percent, a two-point drop. She was fifth overall in February, but is now tied for 7th alongside Councilman Brian Maryott, R-San Juan Capistrano. Maryott polled at 2 percent in the first survey.

The poll also found that this election is mostly a referendum on the president. Twenty-five percent of voters said that President Donald Trump’s job performance is the biggest issue for them, the issue selected by more voters than any other.

In the congressional district, 49 percent of voters disapprove of how Trump is doing, while another 46 approve and 5 percent were not sure.


After the president, the proposed wall along the U.S. border with Mexico was the biggest issue for 20 percent of voters, followed by the economy, which polled at 15 percent.

While the first series of vote-by-mail ballots will be shipped on May 7, 21 percent of voters are undecided, down from 27 percent in February. The election is on June 5.


Twitter: @jptstewart

joshua.stewart@sduniontribune.com


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