When Ecuadorians vote this weekend on barring former president Rafael Correa from re-election, they will also be choosing whether to buck a trend across South America in which overbearing former presidents just can’t let go of power.

After Lenín Moreno was elected Ecuador’s president in 2017 he was expected to keep the seat warm for his predecessor’s return in 2021. Over a decade in power, Correa allied with the leftist governments of Venezuela and Bolivia, ploughed public money into social spending – and also sheltered the WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange. For half of that period, his vice-president was Moreno.

But since taking office, Moreno – the world’s only wheelchair-using head of state – has made good on his pledge to be his own man. He sacked the former vice-president Jorge Glas, a close ally of Correa who was later sentenced to six years in jail for corruption. He has also repeatedly hinted he wants to remove Julian Assange from the Ecuadorian embassy in London.



The result has been a bitter feud between former allies. Correa called Moreno a “wolf in sheep’s clothing” and returned to Ecuador from his wife’s homeland of Belgium to lead the no campaign against the referendum. Moreno, in turn accused Correa of bugging his office.



This year, more than half of Latin America’s population will elect leaders amid crippling corruption scandals – and the excessive influence of former presidents, which analysts say has stunted opportunities for fresh leadership.

Across the region, breaking with the past has proved to be complicated.

In Brazil polls had placed former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s as the frontrunner in his bid for a third term in this year’s elections until judges upheld his convictions for money laundering and corruption.

Argentina’s Cristina Fernández and Colombia’s Álvaro Uribe both use Twitter to exert a disproportionate influence over their countries’ political landscape, and fuel speculation of possible comebacks.

Bolivia’s highest court recently overturned a 2016 referendum and ruled that Evo Morales, the continent’s longest-serving head of state, can run for a fourth term in 2019 – and every election thereafter.



But Correa, 54, looks unlikely to achieve similar presidential longevity, said Santiago Basabe, a political scientist at the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences. A recent poll showed 70.6% of Ecuadorians backed the referendum’s question which would make it impossible for Correa to run again.

“Correa didn’t predict that Moreno would react this way,” said Basabe. “He thought Moreno would be his puppet.”

President Lenin Moreno attends his final campaign rally ahead of this weekend’s constitutional referendum in Quito on Wednesday. Photograph: Dolores Ochoa/AP

This week, Correa faced protests in the city on Quinindé where demonstrators spray-painted and threw rubbish at Correa’s vehicle.

Marcela Aguiñaga, a close ally of Correa, insisted that the former president was “still in the hearts of the people”.

“They couldn’t defeat him at the ballot box so now they want to disqualify him from being a candidate in 2021,” she said.

But with the country only just emerging from recession and saddled with debt to China, Ecuadorians now view Correa less favourably. Some suspect his overspending on public works was linked to corruption scandals which have toppled senior members of his government.

“Correa’s 10 years was a mirage,” said analyst Ramiro Crespo. “Moreno should understand that this is not a vote in favour of him but a vote against Correa.”

However, Moreno has earned support for his break with Correa’s authoritarian style and constant attacks on the media, as well as his pledge to tackle corruption.

Moreno has also repeatedly signalled that Assange has overstayed his welcome in the country’s London embassy. Assange was made an Ecuadorian citizen last month in an attempt to solve the impasse.

Although Sunday’s referendum does not mention Julian Assange, a win for “Sí” on Sunday would make the WikiLeaks founder’s stay in Ecuador’s London embassy even more tenuous, said Basabe, increasing the chance Moreno could attempt to “remove this stone from his shoe”.