Before digging into the two teams specifically I am going to do a little exercise that I always find fun. I will put the two teams stats in a table but not label the teams. I enjoy doing this because far too often we unconsciously let the club names with the narratives, history and prestige affect the way we look at teams.

All stats are league matches only and are per match.

Team xG Shots Penalty Box Shots xG Against Shots Against Penalty Box Shots Against Team A 1.9 12.7 8 1.4 13.4 6.6 Team B 1.4 12.1 6.5 1.4 13.9 7.1

The first impression from this exercise is that these two teams are very close on the statistics they have produced through a third of the season. Team A looks like they are a slightly better team with a better expected goals created and a superior shot ratio (even if it is negative overall) and a much better penalty box shot ratio.

If the suspense is killing you, Team A is Bournemouth and Team B is Arsenal. Often at this time in the season there are some surprising teams at the top portion of the table but that is usually built on hot finishing, hot goal keeping, luck or a mix-and-match combination of the three. With this Bournemouth team, the numbers suggest they are actually producing numbers that back up the results that they have so far.

So while this match-up looks like a big team vs a minnow from our expectations, international caps, wages and transfer fees paid, it is probably a lot closer than that on form in 2018/19.

Bournemouth: The Callum Wilson show

One of the biggest drivers of Bournemouth’s success this season has been how good Callum Wilson has been.

Wilson has produced the fourth highest shots value in the Twelve rankings. For xG produced this season, he is third behind only Sergio Aguero and Mohamed Salah. He is in very good company with his production and having a good striker can turn a mid-table team into a fringe European candidate.

On the season he has produced just under 11 xG plus xA, accounting for just under 50 percent of Bournemouth’s total offense. Interestingly, for all of the offense he has created this season, almost all of his value comes from playing the final ball or getting shots off.

His xG Buildup to xG Chain ratio really shows he has not been asked to become involved in play during the build up to attacking moves very often this season. His ratio of xG Buildup to xG Chain is just 0.18, (1.7/9.9), which among the top 50 players this season for xG chain is the third lowest ratio.

For teams that want to be able to beat Bournemouth, cutting out the supply line to Wilson is pivotal.

Is the regression setting in for Arsenal?

The analytics story of the season for Arsenal has been their over-performance with points compared to the statistics they have created.

Using my expected points model, no team has over performed their underlying stats by a larger margin than the Gunners this season. They have 24 points against an expected total of 13.4, based on the shots they have taken and allowed. As a contrast, the team they face this weekend has 20 points and 19.9 expected points, so based on their performance, Bournemouth should be higher up the table than Arsenal.

The Twelve expected points table shows something very similar too.

During Arsenal’s big winning streak they collected 21 points but were expected to collect just 14 based on what they created. Since then they have continued the unbeaten run but have only managed three straight draws. With this they have also reverted back towards what was expected points wise collecting three points compared to 2.9 expected points.

There have been green shoots of good performances lately, especially the matches against Fulham, Leicester and Liverpool where Arsenal played at a level that has been a step up from their other efforts. Yet these good performances have been sandwiched around being outplayed by newly promoted Wolverhampton (who I predicted would be a tough match-up for Arsenal) and a dreadful showing against Crystal Palace.

Unai Emery will have a lot to sort out to get his side on track after a very uneven start to his Arsenal tenure.

Match Simulation

While on current season form the two teams are very close, when past seasons’ data is added in alongside other factors like squad value, things swing in Arsenal’s favor.

Still, this is a lot closer than I would have expected at the beginning of the season. (I will readily admit that I did not see this turn around coming for Bournemouth and picked them to be fighting it out in the relegation zone.)

This match is important for both teams (I mean they all are, but this one is probably above average). Bournemouth are facing only their third match against the ‘big six’ and to this point have faced the easiest schedule based on the ELO rating of the teams they have played this season. It will go a long way to measuring how much of their performance is “real” and how much has been a decent team beating up on the bottom half of the table.

For Arsenal this match comes right before they get a brutally long trip to Vorskla in the Europa League, the first north London derby against Tottenham, and three days later a trip to Old Trafford to face Manchester United. Getting three points away from home before facing direct rivals for the last top four spot is important for Arsenal.

My prediction: another very tough match for Arsenal and while they keep their unbeaten run going the porous defense lets them down and the match ends up in an entertaining 2-2 draw.

Scott has selected Aubameyang, Lacazette and Xhaka for Bournemouth vs Arsenal on Twelve’s game, but who would you choose? Download our app on Android or iOS to take him on!