in Bank of Canada, Bank Rates, Debts, Stats Canada

Had to chuckle reading this one I wrote in 2010, about then B of C governor Mark Carney saying low interest rates aren’t a long term solution. Think he missed on that one, as they are still here, and there is no sign of them going away. Maybe a cautionary tale?

Be Prepared for a Big Jump

The Bank of Canada’s Governor Mark Carney warned on Monday that we Canadians better not get used to Loose Money because Bank Rate increases will happen soon, and when they do, they may be Sharp and Swift which means it is time to start thinking about dumping debt quickly.

Mr. Carney was actually quite blunt when he pointed out in his conclusions:

“… Cheap money is not a long-term growth strategy. Monetary policy will continue to be set to achieve the inflation target. Our institutions should not be lulled into a false sense of security by current low rates. Households need to be prudent in their borrowing, recognising that over the life of a mortgage, interest rates will often be much higher….”

Can he be any more blunt? The days of cheap interest rates are soon to be coming to an end, and carrying large debt loads may not be the best idea in the near future.

Why might he make such a blunt statement? Our friends at Stats Canada pointed out in their report Q3 2010 National balance sheet accounts that we are in fact getting farther into debt (in households).

Our National net worth per capita is up, which sounds like something good, however, a more insidious issue comes forward, that households are carrying, more and more debt.

Households currently hold about $1.505 Billion in debt which is pretty darn hefty, and thus we have Mr. Carney’s remarks about maybe wanting to lower that down pretty soon. The table supplied by Stats Canada is quite enlightening:

Household Sector Fiscal Indicators

Household sector indicators Second quarter 2009 Third quarter 2009 Fourth quarter 2009 First quarter 2010 Second quarter 2010 Third quarter 2010 Market value, not seasonally adjusted Household sector Net worth Household net worth per capita ($) 166,200 171,000 173,700 176,100 174,500 178,600 Net worth as a percentage of personal disposable income (%) 584.27 602.29 610.48 615.14 602.37 614.30 Total assets to net worth (%) 124.70 124.35 124.31 124.24 124.87 124.62 Financial assets to net worth (%) 68.02 68.73 68.91 68.93 68.33 68.96 Financial assets to non-financial assets (%) 120.02 123.60 124.37 124.61 120.87 123.89 Owner’s equity as a percentage of real estate (%) 68.36 68.17 68.02 68.13 67.91 67.71 Real estate as a percentage of personal disposable income (%) 286.09 289.44 292.22 294.84 295.23 296.58 Debt Household debt ($ billions) 1,385 1,410 1,433 1,450 1,480 1,505 Household debt per capita ($) 41,000 41,600 42,200 42,700 43,400 44,000 Credit market debt ($ billions) 1,365 1,390 1,413 1,430 1,459 1,484 Debt to personal disposable income (%) 144.12 145.70 146.97 148.18 145.37 150.19 Credit market debt to personal disposable income (%) 142.08 143.84 144.94 146.14 143.42 148.09 Consumer credit and mortgage liabilities to personal disposable income (%) 130.34 132.34 133.72 134.90 132.62 137.04 Debt to total assets (%) 19.80 19.58 19.56 19.51 19.91 19.75 Debt to net worth (%) 24.70 24.35 24.31 24.24 24.87 24.62 Credit market debt to net worth (%) 24.34 24.00 23.97 23.90 24.51 24.27 Consumer credit and mortgage liabilities to net worth (%) 22.33 22.09 22.12 22.04 22.65 22.44 Debt to gross domestic product (%) 88.77 92.20 93.83 93.75 94.04 94.29

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