The Philadelphia 76ers and the Minnesota Timberwolves are locked in a battle for the top pick in the 2015 NBA draft. BPI now gives each team a 21 percent chance at the right to choose between the likes of Jahlil Okafor or Emmanuel Mudiay.

The idea is that such a player will help those bad teams quickly become good, but is there really any hope of such a thing actually happening?

Looking at history through the lens of BPI would say there is hope for the 76ers and less for the Timberwolves.

There are 51 teams in the BPI database that have finished a season with a BPI below minus-7 (76ers are minus-10.2 and Timberwolves are minus-8) that have enough data for us to examine. The average improvement among those teams the next year is around 4 BPI points. That would raise the 76ers to minus-6.2 and Wolves to minus-4.

The average improvement would not move either team up the rankings much, and so it offers very little hope to those fans. Even pushing out two years, the average total improvement wouldn't get either team to average.

Michael Carter-Williams and Andrew Wiggins are each trying to spark their respective franchises. Getty

But these two teams have gotten to this point in the season in different ways, and those differences may change the expectations for the next few years. The 76ers' offense is historically bad, with an offensive rating right now of minus-11.1. Of the 545 team seasons in the BPI database, only two teams (2002-03 Nuggets and 1999-00 Chicago Bulls) have finished a season with a lower rating. They do, however, have a defense that is nearly one point above average, which is better than the Clippers, Mavericks and Cavaliers.

The closest comparison to this 76ers team is the 2002-03 Denver Nuggets -- and this is where Philly fans might have some hope. That Nuggets team had the worst offense in the BPI database, but a defense that was more than two points above average. Denver also had five players 25 years old or younger who played at least 900 minutes, and the 76ers are on track to have at least seven.

The Nuggets then added Carmelo Anthony with the third pick in the 2003 draft and immediately improved to a slightly above average team, finishing the season 11th in BPI. This, of course, is exactly the path the 76ers are hoping to follow: developing their young players and using their draft assets and cap space to make a big jump. In fact, there are 14 teams in the BPI database that follow this general pattern (terrible offense and good defense), and 50 percent of them improved enough the next season to be at least average, and 57 percent were above average two seasons later.

The prognosis for Minnesota, however, is not so hopeful. Minnesota is bad on offense and the worst in the league on defense, playing at 5.3 points below the defensive average. There are 25 teams in the BPI database that follow that pattern. Only two teams improved enough the next season to be at league average or better -- the 1994-95 Pistons and the 1996-97 Spurs. The history for the Wolves suggests they are not ready to make a jump next season, and they may even need more than two seasons, as only 20 percent of those teams rose to the average or higher two seasons later.

Overall, the BPI data suggests bad teams have an opportunity to rapidly improve, but only if they are building on a strong base. The 76ers can play defense, so when young players improve offensively and/or they acquire other scorers, the 76ers are in a position to take advantage. The Timberwolves may need a few seasons to establish a strength on one side of the court before they develop into a complete team.

BPI Notes:

Biggest Riser: Boston Celtics from 23rd to 21st

Biggest Faller: Houston Rockets from 7th to 10th

The Miami Heat will send their first-round pick to the 76ers, as long as it is not in the top 10 picks. BPI gives the Heat a 12 percent chance of having a top-10 pick.

The New Orleans Pelicans, Phoenix Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder are all vying for the 8th spot in the Western Conference playoffs, and the Thunder and Pelicans have a similar remaining strength of schedule while the Suns have the fifth-hardest remaining schedule in the conference.

NBA Basketball Power Index Rankings

Note: The NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength developed by the ESPN Analytics team. BPI is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. BPI accounts for game-by-game efficiencies, strength of schedule, pace, number of days' rest, game location and preseason expectations. Ratings will be updated in this space weekly.