Within hours of the referendum result, film industry leaders in the UK were predicting disaster, with Michael Ryan, the chairman of the Independent Film and Television Alliance, saying the vote had “just blown up our foundation”. “We no longer know how our relationships with co-producers, financiers and distributors will work,” he said. “This is likely to be devastating for us.”

It’s far too early, of course, to know how things will pan out, and British film is as reliant on Hollywood backing and National Lottery funding as it is on EU support. Nonetheless, here are five ways in which the British film industry may change when the UK leaves the EU.

A lot less money will be available

The EU contributes a giant wad of cash directly to British film-makers. According to figures outlined by 20 influential producers, the EU’s Media programme injected €130m (£105m) into the industry between 2007 and 2015, contributing to production budgets, supporting distributors and festivals, and generally encouraging the spread of European film into areas it might not otherwise penetrate. Whether or not you take the Telegraph’s line about “luvvies”, the removal of this money will directly affect the business operations of hundreds of companies and agencies.

Co-productions are in big trouble

Even without the post-vote sterling fall, the hurdles in front of British film-makers looking for European partners to help make their films will be that much higher. The same is true for Europeans looking for British input. What was a straightforward, if laborious, process under European convention rules will need to be hammered out in a series of individual co-production treaties with each country involved. Also, producers who have finalised their finances with any euro – or, indeed, dollar – elements will this morning find themselves significantly short of funds, due to the sudden reduction in sterling’s value.

European films could disappear from British cinemas

British distributors buy rights to European films in euros – and now they have become much more expensive. Few European films are serious commercial propositions in the UK, and the companies that release them operate on wafer-thin margins, if at all. If barriers or tariffs intervene, or cultural subsidies from the EU disappear, the supply could dry up rapidly. We would probably still get high-profile award-winners such as Dheepan and Son of Saul, but what chance would there be of seeing lesser-known stuff such as Suburra or Long Way North in British cinemas again? They only get here with EU help.

British films could disappear from European cinemas

Brexit will hinder British producers’ ability to sell their products in a giant trading area. As a group of big-cheese producers pointed out before the vote, “our feature films, our television programmes and our games can travel far more easily across borders because they are not subject to quotas or taxes of any kind in Europe”. Over the past decade, around 40% of the UK’s film exports have been to the EU; jobs, companies and livelihoods depend on it. And just as UK cinemas can access the Europa Cinemas network to get subsidies to show European films, EU cinemas get the same funding to show British films. The free-trade zone isn’t always lovely, however: the recently announced plan to create a digital single market has inspired considerable protest, amid fears it could shut down the same outfits it claims to support.

We could witness a 70s-style British film meltdown

If Brexit goes ahead and funds dry up, things will undoubtedly get tricky. One producer described it to me as “a critical blow”, another as “terrible news ... making the UK even more of a pariah”. The question is: will the slowdown be temporary, or are we in for a two-decade fallow period comparable to the Hollywood pullout of the early 70s? Back then, the number of UK production starts crashed under the pressure of falling audiences, competition from TV and the disappearance of Hollywood funding as studios ended their practice of subcontracting production overseas in favour of retrenching in California. Despite occasional mini-renaissances – usually around individual companies, such as Goldcrest – it took two decades for a concerted revival to occur. It could happen again.