Russia’s entry to Syrian conflict draws suspicion, amid evidence its military capability is designed to combat threats far beyond those posed by Isis

This article is more than 4 years old

This article is more than 4 years old

The warning flags that Russian forces were about to intervene in Syria’s multi-layered war have been visible for weeks – both in terms of the rapid buildup of military capability and the diplomatic choreography between Damascus and Moscow.

Now that Russian jets have carried out their first airstrikes, the key questions are over the scale of the operation, and Russia’s real targets in Syria, amid evidence its military buildup is designed for a conflict far beyond the threat posed by Islamic State.

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Satellite imagery of military equipment being assembled at the Russia-controlled airbase at Latakia has been deeply suggestive about the likely shape of the operation.

Some of the aircraft identified at the base are designed for aerial interception, others are for ground support, suggesting – that despite comments to the contrary in Moscow – the ambition of the operation may be wider than the war against Isis that Russian officials have officially admitted to.

Already the Russian air force at the Bassel-al Assad airbase comprises at least 32 fighter jets – including 12 Su-25 Frogfoot, 12 Su-25 Fencers and four SU-30 Flankers – in addition to reconnaissance drones and transport and MI-24 attack helicopters.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Amateur footage appears to show Russian airstrikes hitting targets in the Syrian city of Homs on Wednesday.

In recent days officials and aviation websites have also reported the arrival of an additional four to six SU-34 Fullback attack planes which apparently accompanied a Russian transport plane that transited over the Caspian sea, Iran and Iraq before reaching their destination.

While the Fullbacks – ground-attack aircraft able to hit small and highly mobile targets – would appear to be the most appropriate aircraft for targeting Isis units, other aircraft at the base seem less suitable: the SU-30 Flankers, for example, are air-to-air warplanes with no obvious role against militants who do not have an air force.

The planes in Latakia are also protected by sophisticated SA-22 surface-to-air anti-aircraft systems.

The suspicion among western officials that the assembled force has not been designed for launching airstrikes alone has been heightened by the wider design of the unfolding Russian operation in Syria.

Speaking earlier this week to a meeting of the German Marshall Fund, Gen Phillip Breedlove, Nato’s supreme allied commander in Europe, described the rapid development of a Russian anti-aircraft “bubble” in Syria.

The anti-aircraft zone seemed designed both to hinder access of other aircraft into Syrian airspace and to provide anti-aircraft cover for Russian and Syrian government forces, Breedlove said.

“As we see these very capable air defence [systems] beginning to show up in Syria, we’re a little worried about another ... bubble being created in the eastern Mediterranean,” he said, referring to a similar capability developed by Russia in the Black Sea during the recent Crimea crisis.

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“These very sophisticated air defence capabilities are not about Isis,” he added.

Other materiel identified arriving in Syria includes about half a dozen T-90 main battle tanks, about 35 modern BTR-80 Russian armoured personnel carriers with enhanced armour protection, and artillery pieces.

Although the T-90s have so far been deployed defensively around the Latakia airbase, US officials have speculated that Latakia may eventually function as a forward operating facility for other firebases and airfields in Syria to support the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

Evidence of the continued Russian buildup is not restricted to air and ground forces: a Russian naval exercise in the eastern Mediterranean is scheduled for October in waters between Syria and Cyprus.

Moscow claims the manoeuvres have been long-planned, but the naval component is also suggestive, analysts say, as it includes two guided-missile cruisers, several amphibious warships, a surveillance ship and a landing ship – the Tapir-class Saratov.

The Russian military has already warned civilian aircraft away from an area between Cyprus and the Russian naval base in Syria, located at Tartus.

Breedlove’s conclusion was that that the Russian operation is very different to the limited airstrikes launched by the US and its allies against Isis, suggesting a wholesale effort to rescue the Assad regime.

“After all of that, I think that they will do some counter-Isis work to legitimise their approach to Syria.”

None of which should be terribly surprising.

During the course of the current Syrian conflict Moscow has clearly signalled its intention to support Assad in line with its foreign policy aims, while the recent exchange of public messages between Damascus and Moscow – laying out the legal parameters for an invited intervention – have been clear, leading to this week’s letter from Assad requesting Russian military assistance.

Some analysts in Moscow have suggested that Russia’s intervention might be improvisational in the context of the Syria policy vacuum. Among them is Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Moscow-based Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies and a member of the defence ministry’s public council who told the Washington Post earlier this week: “To quote Napoleon, engage and then we’ll see. I think there is some improvisation going on here.”

That, however, may be wishful thinking at best confronted with an operation that appears thoroughly planned, not least with the deployment of a possible naval component, and contains familiar features of Russian military doctrine – including decisive action, deception and a layered and careful rollout of forces.