Leading Candidates Now Tied

TORONTO JULY 21th, 2014 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1063 Toronto voters, roughly equal proportions will vote for each of the three leading candidates in the full five-way Toronto mayoral race, whereas Olivia Chow prevails when only the main contenders run. Meanwhile, John Tory has a solid lead in candidate approval.





Leading Candidates Tie Vote

In the five way match-up, considering the five main contenders, Chow (29%), Tory (28%) and Ford (27%) all draw equal levels of support, while Karen Stintz (6%) and David Soknacki (5%) are not serious contenders. Very few have no opinion in this race (4%) or would vote for some other candidate (1%). The Ford voter is younger, has a lower income, lives in Scarborough or Etobicoke/York and is a provincial PC voter. The Chow supporter is younger, lower income, lives in the downtown and is a provincial NDP supporter. The Tory voter is oldest, wealthier, lives in Etobicoke/York or North York and votes Liberal provincially.

When just the three leading candidates are tested, Olivia Chow prevails (35%) against John Tory (32%) and Rob Ford (27%). Few choose someone else (2%) or are unsure (3%).





Tory Has Highest Approvals

Among those aware of him (93%), John Tory enjoys the approval of two thirds (67%), compared to just more than half for Chow (54% approval out of 96% awareness). Karen Stintz (44% approval) and David Soknacki (48%) have approval levels just below Chow's, but they are less well-known (85% and 66% awareness, respectively). Rob Ford, on the other hand, has the approval of just one third (33%). Since we last polled (July 2), Tory's approvals have increased (from 63%), Chow's have declined (from 57%). Approvals for Stintz, Soknacki and Ford are generally stable.





Ford Nation Stabilizes

Just less than three-in-ten will vote for Ford with no other candidates named (28%), and this is considered the measure of "Ford Nation", which stood at one quarter (25%) last month. Ford nation comprises the youngest (35%), males (34%), the least wealthy (44%), in Scarborough (38%), the least educated (42%), provincial PC voters (46%) and those of Caribbean ethnic background (59% - caution, small base size).





6-In-10 Call for Ford to Resign

Just less than 6-in-10 voters think Rob Ford should resign (59%) and this is down slightly from the beginning of the month (62%).





"It appears that Rob Ford is not going away anytime soon, but neither has he been able to maintain his pre-rehab levels of popularity, even among the demographic groups we know are sympathetic to him. John Tory, once a second place contestant, is now in the front ranks, but it appears advantage is still to Chow," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.