Atlanta wide receiver Julio Jones has 82 receptions for 1,169 yards and five touchdowns this season. Credit: Associated Press

Green Bay — Just because the standings show a pair of NFC division leaders meeting Monday night at Lambeau Field doesn't mean both teams deserve to be called contenders.

"If the Falcons win the division, it will be unbelievable," a personnel director for an NFL team said Tuesday. "That would be a joke. If Green Bay doesn't torch them for 40, I'll be shocked."

Atlanta finds itself an 11½-point underdog against the Packers. The scout predicted a 48-17 triumph for Green Bay, another scout called it, 38-21, for the Packers and an assistant coach for a recent Falcons' opponent sees Green Bay rolling, 35-13.

"Atlanta's secondary is as bad as Philadelphia's secondary," one of the scouts said. "If the Packers don't blow this team out, I'll be disappointed."

The Falcons (5-7) share the NFC South lead with New Orleans. However, Atlanta's last four opponents have a 24-23-1 record whereas the Saints' foes are just 15-32-1.

Atlanta, a 4-12 team last season, is coming off what easily ranks as its finest victory of the season. On Sunday, they crushed Arizona, the team with the NFC's best record, 29-18.

It was the Falcons' first victory over a team with a winning record since the 2012 playoffs.

"I don't believe the Packers have thrown an interception at home this season," coach Mike Smith said Monday. "And I don't even want to talk about how many points they've scored in the last three games at Lambeau Field.

"(But) that field's 531/3 yards wide and 100 yards long. They're playing for the same thing we're playing for. They're in first place in their division, and we're in first place in our division."

Under Smith, the Falcons' regular-season records are 39-15 (.722) at the Georgia Dome and 26-28 (.482) on the road.

"I'd have a different impression if the Packers were going inside," another scout said. "I just think the Falcons have notoriously struggled outside. They're a different team in the dome.

"The only way for them to beat the Packers is (Matt) Ryan's hot and they get some turnovers. If it's a clean game, I just don't think they have enough firepower."

Hold the phone. A third personnel man picked Atlanta, 20-17.

"I see this as a trap game for Green Bay," the scout said. "I'm expecting an emotional letdown on offense as the Packers come off the New England game.

"This is my upset of the week. Gulp!"

OFFENSE

SCHEME

Third-year coordinator Dirk Koetter, a former head coach at Boise State and Arizona State, likes pre-snap shifting, a controlled no-huddle as a change of pace and screens of all kind. Mike Tice, the new line coach, installed the Bears' type run game featuring traps, power plays and pulling. Koetter will use T-G Gabe Carimi as a sixth O-lineman. The Falcons rank ninth in yards (374.0), 12th in scoring (24.3) and tied for 15th in giveaways (18).

RECEIVERS

WR Julio Jones (6-2½, 220) ranks among the game's premier perimeter threats. On Sunday, he demonstrated his might by dominating Arizona CB Patrick Peterson. With his 4.39 speed, size, power and tremendous leaping ability, Jones does his best work deep on the sideline. He's somewhat stiff and less of a threat on third down. WR Roddy White (6-1½, 211) should return after a one-game absence (ankle). At 33, he isn't the spectacular player that he was from 2007-'12. Although he isn't as sudden, he remains extremely competitive. Slot Henry Douglas (5-11½, 183), with 237 catches in seven seasons, uses his terrific hands and underrated route-running to do business in clutch time. Former Bear Devin Hester (5-10½, 190) fits Koetter's screen game. Replacing retired TE Tony Gonzalez is Levine Toilolo (6-8, 265), a fourth-round pick in '13. He's a plodder (4.82) with inconsistent hands but his blocking hasn't been bad. Former Giant Bear Pascoe (6-5½, 265) is just a blocker.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Season-ending injuries suffered by LT Sam Baker, C Joe Hawley, No. 2 C Peter Konz and No. 2 RT Lamar Holmes left the Falcons high and dry looking for a lineman until mid-season. The best that can be said about the current unit is it has been intact since Game 8. LG Justin Blalock (6-3, 326), an eight-year starter, is brilliant (37 on the 50-question Wonderlic intelligence test), powerful and steady. RG Jon Asamoah (6-4, 305) got $8 million guaranteed to depart Kansas City March 11. He's assignment-sound (Wonderlic of 36), and tough, but has obvious athletic shortcomings. Rookie LT Jake Matthews (6-5½,309), the sixth pick, has played every game but one after suffering a high ankle sprain in the opener. He's intense and athletic. He's also had growing pains as he tries to add some power to his finesse game. RT Ryan Schraeder (6-7, 300) was eaten up by Green Bay's Nick Perry last December. He tries to compensate for so-so talent and strength with a tough-guy temperament. C James Stone (6-3½, 300), an undrafted rookie from Tennessee, will make his sixth start. He's plays smart and has long arms (337/8 inches). He's also on the stiff side and isn't overly strong.

QUARTERBACKS

Matt Ryan (6-4½, 217), the third pick in '08, ranks 12th in passer rating at 93.7. His career rating is 90.5, and his record is 65-41 (.613). Ryan has absorbed a ton of punishment behind a porous line for 1½ seasons but is healthy and keeps coming back for more. The object is to force Ryan from his preferred throwing spot. He's much more effective and accurate from the pocket than trying to extend. His 4.89 speed and average athletic ability limit his running dimension. Ryan is a tough guy with a fiery disposition and leadership skills. His arm strength is good, certainly not great. It's a catchable ball without a tight spiral. Even with that much experience, he's still guilty of the killer interception. Backup T.J. Yates (6-3½, 217) started six games in '11 for Houston.

RUNNING BACKS

Steven Jackson (6-1½, 240), a magnificent player for the Rams from 2004-'12, is washed up. The burst and power that made him special have dissipated. Still a gifted receiver, he plays about two-thirds of the time. Rookie Devonta Freeman (5-8, 206), a fourth-round pick, and Jacquizz Rodgers (5-6. 196), a fifth-round pick in '11, split the rest. Despite his size, Freeman runs strong inside and has been compared to the 49ers' Frank Gore. Rodgers is about the same size as the Eagles' Darren Sproles but lacks that type of speed. FB Patrick DiMarco (6-0½, 234) is OK in a limited role.

DEFENSE

SCHEME

Mike Nolan, Mike McCarthy's boss in 2005 at San Francisco, has been an NFL coordinator for seven teams over 17 seasons. His flexible base is more 3-4 than 4-3. According to STATS, his blitz rate (26.5%) ranks 20th. The safety blitz is a favored tactic. Nolan has always been big on deception if not trickery. The Falcons rank third in takeaways (24), 22nd in scoring (24.9) and 32nd in yards (403.2).

DEFENSIVE LINE

In an effort to stop getting pushed around, the Falcons opened free agency by giving Miami NT Paul Soliai (6-4, 345) $14 million guaranteed and Kansas City DE Tyson Jackson (6-4, 305) $11 million guaranteed. The average allowed per rush has dropped from 4.8 to 4.1. Strong as an ox, Soliai doesn't buckle against double-teams. He finds the ball occasionally but offers little rush. Jackson is another strict two-gapper. DE Jonathan Babineaux (6-2, 300), a longtime starter, is the best of the interior players. At 33, he still can get off a block and threaten the passer with craftiness and quickness. Corey Peters (6-3, 305), a third-round pick in '10, has a respectable power rush but isn't real stout at the point. Rookie DT Ra'Shede Hageman (6-6, 318), a second-round pick from Minnesota, has a world of talent but remains inconsistent. Underutilized DT Cliff Matthews (6-3½, 275) showed surprising interior rush Sunday. Nolan mixes and matches four other "hybrid" players from two- and three-point stances. Kroy Biermann (6-3, 255), with 19 sacks in seven years, qualifies as the club's No. 1 rusher. He lacks the speed to complete his frequent edge rushes but goes all-out trying. Former Giant standout Osi Umenyiora (6-3, 255) plays RE on passing downs. He has a ton of moves but seldom finishes anymore. Jonathan Massaquoi (6-2, 264) is playing on a bad foot and has lost some quickness. Malliciah Goodman (6-3½, 276) has enormous arms (363/8) and hands (11) but lacks instincts.

LINEBACKERS

Sean Weatherspoon, probably the team's best defender, suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in the off-season. Thus, Paul Worrilow (6-2, 234), signed as a free agent, plays every down. He has 111 tackles, 43 more than anyone else. Worrilow runs well (4.65), takes on lead blockers and strikes a blow. He has been fooled less often and isn't making as many of his stops downfield. Joining him in the 4-2 defense is Joplo Bartu (6-1½, 230), another undrafted second-year man from a small school (Texas State). He can cover because of superb athleticism and more than adequate speed. Bartu has split time with rookie Prince Shembo (6-1½, 253), a fourth-round pick who was moved inside after Weatherspoon's injury. He's strong and physical but looks lost at times in coverage.

SECONDARY

The best player by far is LC Desmond Trufant (5-11½, 190), the 22nd pick in '13. He can run (4.43), plays with confidence and poise, tackles adequately and has been used frequently to match up against No. 1 WRs. His hands are tiny (85/8), which may explain why he's dropped half a dozen picks. RC Robert Alford (5-10, 186), a second-round pick in '13, probably will play with a broken wrist. He's smaller than Trufant but even faster (4.36) and equally competitive. Veteran nickel backs Robert McClain (5-9½, 195) and former Raven-Redskin Josh Wilson (5-9, 188) are shaky. SS William Moore (6-0, 221), an old-fashioned enforcer, returned Sunday after a seven-game absence (shoulder). He'll tackle and blitz well from the box but must be hidden in coverage. FS Dwight Lowery (5-11, 212) moves to LB in the dime. He's a stopgap. Kemal Ishmael (5-10½, 206), who has assumed the dime safety job from ex-Badger rookie Dezmen Southward, plays the run better than the pass.

SPECIAL TEAMS

K Matt Bryant, 39, is 22 of 22 inside 54 with misses from 57 and 59. He beat New Orleans Sept. 7 from 52 in overtime. His career mark is 85.3%. P Matt Bosher, who also kicks off, ranks 11th in net (40.3). Hester, 32, had a 70-yard punt TD Sunday called back. His 15.4 average leads the NFL. WR Eric Weems and LB Nate Stupar lead coach Keith Armstrong's solid core units.

GAME-BREAKER

Patrick Peterson, the Cardinals' all-pro cornerback, issued a verbal challenge to WR Julio Jones last week. He demanded that the Arizona coaching staff permit him to cover Jones one-on-one Sunday. Well, Peterson got his wish all right, but he probably would have preferred that he didn't. Jones broke loose from a bit of a slump, catching 10 passes for a career-high 189 yards. Peterson was in coverage most of the time. Jones tied for third in receptions (82) and yards (1,169). In his only appearance (October 2011) against the Packers, he caught one pass for 16 yards before departing with a pulled hamstring early in the fourth quarter.

WEAKEST LINK

If the Falcons had their druthers, their starting offensive line would consist of LT Sam Baker, LG Justin Blalock, C Joe Hawley, RG Jon Asamoah and RT Jake Matthews. Baker blew out his knee in training camp, prompting the move of Matthews to the left side. Hawley blew out his knee in Game 4. The Falcons didn't arrive at their current configuration until Game 8. There's a rookie free agent (James Stone) starting at center and a second-year free agent (Ryan Schraeder) from Valdosta State starting at right tackle. The group fared well against Arizona, but it's only a matter of time before the dike bursts.

McGINN'S VIEW

If Mike Smith ends up being fired at the end of the season, he will look back at his seven-year tenure and wonder what might have happened if Atlanta had developed a pass rush.

Currently, the Falcons rank 31st in sack percentage. Since Smith took over in 2008, in chronological order the team's pass rush has ranked 17th, 27th, 25th, 25th, 27th and 25th.

Atlanta's two leading sackers are tied with 2½. There is no individual up front capable of winning one-on-one rushes.

Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan probably would like to blitz more but there isn't anyone at inside linebacker or in the secondary that can get home with any regularity, either.

One of the reasons that Smith got the job was his success as an assistant coach in Baltimore from 1999-'02 and as defensive coordinator in Jacksonville from 2003-'07. His Jaguars led the NFL in sack percentage in 2005.

Smith's only legitimate pass rusher in Atlanta was defensive end John Abraham, but he arrived two years before Smith. Abraham piled up 16½ sacks in 2008, 5½ in '09, 13 in '10, 9½ in '11 and 10 in '12.

When Abraham reached 34, the Falcons decided to move on. They signed former Giant Osi Umenyiora, then 31, to replace him. Abraham went to Arizona for just $1 million guaranteed in July 2013 and made the Pro Bowl as an outside linebacker with 11 ½ sacks.

The last time the Falcons had a top-flight pass rush was 2004. Led by DE Patrick Kerney (13 sacks) and DT Rod Coleman (11½), they ranked second with 48 sacks.

One year before the Falcons reached their only Super Bowl (1998 season), they amassed a club-record 55 sacks with DE Chuck Smith's 12 leading the way.

His team didn't sack Arizona's Drew Stanton Sunday, but Smith was cheered by what he said were 11 knockdowns. "I know the first thing you're going to say is, 'Coach, you had no sacks,'" he said Monday. "But we got accomplished what we needed to get accomplished."

Now Smith must make plans to contain the NFL's second highest-scoring offense without a legitimate pass rush. At least by now he should be used to it.