Housing is one of the three pillars of the Australian economy, along with financial institutions and natural resources. Politicians and investors alike, David writes, don't get "how deeply intertwined and connected" these sectors are and "how they can easily take each other down in a domino effect." The most obvious trigger would be a Chinese crash that simultaneously hits bankers, miners and households hard. "It is just an easy mantra for international commentators and for analysts based overseas to say 'well, there's a bit of a housing bubble emerging in Australia'.": Speaking at an economic forum last week, Joe Hockey flatly denied Australia is in a property bubble. Credit:Daniel Munoz/Fairfax Media via Getty Images) I caught up with David in Sydney last week at a Bloomberg conference where I helped grill Treasurer Joe Hockey about these very topics. When I asked Hockey point blank whether Australia faced a huge property bubble, he dismissed the entire premise out of hand. "It is just an easy mantra for international commentators and for analysts based overseas to say 'well, there's a bit of a housing bubble emerging in Australia'," Hockey said. "That is a rather lazy analysis because fundamentally we don't have enough supply to meet demand." Two hours later, Australia's central bank raised concerns about "speculative demand" that "could amplify the property price cycle and increase the potential for property prices to fall later". If not exactly Australia's version of the "irrational exuberance" warning that will forever colour the legacy of former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, that's still pretty strong language from a Group of 20 central bank.

The Reserve Bank of Australia wasn't rebutting Hockey; its concerns about an overheated housing market came in the minutes of its September 2 meeting. Lazy analysis on the part of RBA Governor Glenn Stevens? Hardly. Nor are the folks at the Bank for International Settlements snoozing on the job when they warn Australian housing is among the most overvalued anywhere. There's something dangerously wrong when Australia's top economic official is blowing off fears of asset bubbles and heightened leverage. Sure, David's analysis can be hyperbolic in places. His bet that at least one of Australia's big four banks will go bust, Lehman-style, or get nationalised puts him a bit out of the mainstream. On the other hand, Hockey's acerbic dismissal of the danger smacks of hubris. Home prices are seen rising between 8 per cent and 12 per cent in 2015 in Sydney and roughly 9 per cent across Australia's major cities. How can that make sense in an already frothy market? The RBA could start increasing interest rates, but that would slam home owners. Better to address the problem via macroprudential policy steps such as setting limits on leveraged lending, lowering price-earnings ratios and raising minimum deposit levels. Kelly O'Dwyer, who chairs a parliamentary inquiry into foreign investment, wants stronger policing of rules restricting overseas purchases; Chinese demand is partly responsible for price spikes in Sydney and Melbourne. In a striking bit of serendipity, G20 officials met in Australia on the weekend to chew over the very risks Hockey had just dismissed. The communique they issued concluded: "We are mindful of the potential for a build-up of excessive risk in financial markets, particularly in an environment of low interest rates and low-asset price volatility." In other words, low volatility will become problematic once rates rise. As the Financial Stability Board chaired by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on September 18, investors are becoming complacent about financial market risks. Loading

On September 16, Hockey made his own plea against moral hazard, saying "complacency is the enemy of economies around the world and none the least Australia". But one wonders if Hockey isn't engaging in a similar kind of denial. As I've written before, Australia needs to work much harder to diversify growth engines that seem to become more China-centric with each passing year. Arguably, no top-12 economy will be hit harder and faster if China falters than Australia's. So feel free to focus on the good news in the so-called Lucky Country: an enviable 3.1 per cent growth rate and 6.1 per cent jobless rate in a nation that's been recession-free for more than 20 years. But, as author David contends, it's a "Disneyland" fantasy to think housing prices can't crash in a place whose future is so linked to Beijing's bubbles.