Philadelphia Eagles Wide Receiver Jordan Matthews is set to become a free agent following the 2017 season. When using recent contracts given to players with similar production as a baseline, it is fairly safe to assume that Matthews will get a contract to the tune of 4 or 5 years, $32-40M total with something like $10-17M fully guaranteed. Spotrac.com has him valued even higher than similar players at approximately $10M per year for 5 years. Considering sites like Spotrac heavily use statistics of similar players paired with contracts earned by those same players to estimate the market value of an upcoming Free Agent, it is very fair to wonder whether statistics are truly an accurate representation of Matthews' productivity on the field. Some will tell you that using statistics alone is a poor excuse to justify a contract of this value due to the "Chip Kelly Effect." Others will tell you signing him now would be relatively cheap compared to what he will be worth once he hits the Free Agent Market in March of 2018.

The "Chip Kelly Effect", a term coined by BGN Blog Lord Brandon Lee Gowton, is a name given to the statistical inflation shown in counting statistics (e.g. Passing Attempts, Yards, Touchdowns, etc...) for offensive players who are involved in more plays than the rest of the league. Because of this, it seems likely that Matthews numbers over his first two seasons, which were also his two best seasons, are not to be taken at face value.

"It's no coincidence a number of players had career years in Kelly's scheme. It was a volume-boosting offense. But while Kelly's scheme looked successful in terms of volume, it did not hold up in terms of efficiency. It doesn't matter how plays you run if you're not gaining yards on them. Matthews gained a lot of production simply based on the fact the Eagles ran so many plays over the past three years." - Brandon Lee Gowton

Now, I must admit, usually my general rule of thumb is to not only trust whatever BLG tells me without question but also ignore anything Eliot Shorr-Parks produces. This time, though, something felt wrong. Of course, as any real Eagles fan can relate to, I have pulled my hair out over many plays Jordan Matthews did not make. I have stood, alone in my living room with my arms spread wide, yelling at the television after watching him drop a pass that I could have caught. These mistakes, however infuriating they might be, are not the only part of his game. In 3 short years, Jordan Matthews has put up 2673 yards & 19 touchdowns. Since 1970, only the following 6 Eagles Wide Receivers can say they have put up a stat line even close to that: Jordan Matthews, Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson, Fred Barnett, Reggie Brown & Mike Quick. Mike Quick went on to be one of the greatest Eagles Wide Receivers in the history of the franchise. We all know the story with Jackson & Maclin, but those were two of the most exciting players I have been blessed to see in Midnight Green. Reggie Brown & Fred Barnett turned out to be duds. Are we really willing to let the sixth player on that list, Jordan Matthews, walk away because the team does not want to pay him? Are we really going to leave the development of Franchise Quarterback Carson Wentz in the unreliable hands of Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith, Nelson Agholor, & two rookies?

While I could continue to list emotional reasons I personally want Matthews to have his contract extended today, handing out $50M should never be based on emotion. Usually these types of contract decisions are primarily based on production, but, as BLG insinuated, how do we know if his production can be trusted? What follows is my attempt to unmask the "Chip Kelly Effect" once and for all to determine whether or not Jordan Matthews is worthy of sporting our beloved Midnight Green for the foreseeable future.

I started this exercise by using the Play Index Finder at Pro-Football-Reference.com to generate a list of all wide receivers from 2014. Note, I could have also used 2015 & 2016, but 2014 is the year the Eagles led the league in offensive plays called (with 1127!!!!) so if there is such a thing as the "Chip Kelly Effect", 2014 is the year to find it. I also collected statistics from all 32 NFL Teams, specifically Total Offensive Plays Called. I immediately averaged this value to find that the Average NFL Team called 1024.3 plays, or about 103 less plays than the Eagles did.

Next, I took the list of wide receivers and narrowed it down to show only the top 2 receivers on each team in terms of targets. Before getting into any results, I want to point out that I strategically followed twelve receivers for the following reasons:

The Top 5 Receivers based on Receiving yards based on the raw statistics: Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson & Emmanuel Sanders

The Top 5 Receivers based on Adjusted Receiving Yards, which will be explained soon: DeSean Jackson, Kenny Stills, TY Hilton, Randall Cobb & Jordy Nelson (again!)

He would have been top 5 had he played 16 games: Odell Beckham Jr.

They were on the Eagles: Jeremy Maclin & Jordan Matthews.

Note: To keep track of all 64 receivers used would have been both very strenuous & redundant so I tried to limit the number of receivers to the minimum required to demonstrate what I am about to show you, the reader.

After sorting all 64 eligible wide outs by Receiving Yards, I gathered the following information:

Actual Stats Player G Tm Plays %Plays Tgt Rec Yds TD WR1 15.3 1024 12.3 126 77 1035 6.2 WR2 15.3 1024 9.4 97 58 781 5.0 WR1&2 Combined 15.3 1024 10.8 111 68 908 5.6 1 Antonio Brown 16.0 PIT (WR1) 1068 16.9 181 129 1698 13.0 2 Demaryius Thomas 16.0 DEN (WR1) 1067 17.2 184 111 1619 11.0 3 Julio Jones 15.0 ATL (WR1) 1035 15.7 163 104 1593 6.0 4 Jordy Nelson 16.0 GNB (WR1) 1001 15.1 151 98 1519 13.0 5 Emmanuel Sanders 16.0 DEN (WR2) 1067 13.2 141 101 1404 9.0 6 T.Y. Hilton 15.0 IND (WR1) 1105 11.9 131 82 1345 7.0 9 Jeremy Maclin 16.0 PHI (WR1) 1127 12.7 143 85 1318 10.0 10 Odell Beckham 12.0 NYG (WR1) 1086 12.0 130 91 1305 12.0 11 Randall Cobb 16.0 GNB (WR2) 1001 12.7 127 91 1287 12.0 13 DeSean Jackson 15.0 WAS (WR2) 1006 9.4 95 56 1169 6.0 28 Kenny Stills 15.0 NOR (WR2) 1095 7.6 83 63 931 3.0 31 Jordan Matthews 16.0 PHI (WR2) 1127 9.1 103 67 872 8.0

Observations:

Antonio Brown & Demaryius Thomas both had over 180 Targets. This is ludicrous.

Jeremy Maclin was in the top 10. This was the season leading up to the 2015 offseason when the Eagles decided he was not worthy of the contract he eventually received. Sound familiar?

Peyton Manning & Aaron Rodgers sure did throw the ball a lot.

While Jordan Matthews put up pretty impressive numbers for a rookie, he only finished 31st in total yards gained. His statistics looked very similar to those of the average WR2, which was expected. Remember, we want to find out if that is because of the "Chip Kelly Effect" or not.

As you might expect, WR1's had more targets, receptions, receiving yards & receiving touchdowns than WR2's.

The first thing I noticed was that it seemed unfair to judge players who did not play all 16 games directly against players who did. To account for this, I simply found the number of targets each player averaged per game & multiplied that number by 16 to find their "adjusted targets" on the season. I did the same for Receptions, Yards & Touchdowns Scored. Finally, I used the "adjusted targets" value paired with the teams total offensive plays to find the new % of offensive plays in which the wide receiver would have been targeted. This resulted in the following:

Adjusted to 16 Games Played Player G Tm Plays %Plays Tgt Rec Yds TD WR1 16.0 1024 12.9 133 81 1088 6.5 WR2 16.0 1024 9.8 101 61 817 5.3 WR1&2 Combined 16.0 1024 11.4 117 71 953 5.9 1 Odell Beckham 16.0 NYG (WR1) 1086 16.0 173 121 1740 16.0 2 Julio Jones 16.0 ATL (WR1) 1035 16.8 174 111 1699 6.4 3 Antonio Brown 16.0 PIT (WR1) 1068 16.9 181 129 1698 13.0 4 Demaryius Thomas 16.0 DEN (WR1) 1067 17.2 184 111 1619 11.0 5 Jordy Nelson 16.0 NYG (WR1) 1001 15.1 151 98 1519 13.0 6 T.Y. Hilton 16.0 IND (WR1) 1105 12.6 140 87 1435 7.5 7 Emmanuel Sanders 16.0 DEN (WR2) 1067 13.2 141 101 1404 9.0 11 Jeremy Maclin 16.0 PHI (WR1) 1127 12.7 143 85 1318 10.0 12 Randall Cobb 16.0 GNB (WR2) 1001 12.7 127 91 1287 12.0 14 DeSean Jackson 16.0 WAS (WR2) 1006 10.1 101 60 1247 6.4 26 Kenny Stills 16.0 NOR (WR2) 1095 8.1 89 67 993 3.2 35 Jordan Matthews 16.0 PHI (WR2) 1127 9.1 103 67 872 8.0

Observations:

Hello Odell Beckham Jr. Had Odell played in 16 games, he could have gotten over 1750 receiving yards.

Since Jordan Matthews & Jeremy Maclin both actually played in 16 games, both of them were pushed a few spots down the rankings by players who did not.

Here is where things start to get interesting. In attempt to completely remove the "Chip Kelly Effect" from the equation, I adjusted the "plays" column to show 1024.3 total offensive plays, the league average, for each player's team. I then kept the % of those plays in which the wide out was targeted consistent from the previous table which allowed me to update the Targets, Receptions, Yards & Touchdown columns. Basically, I wanted to see what kind of stats each receiver would have put up if their offense called exactly 1024.3 plays over the course of 16 games, while keeping all other variables constant.

Adjusted to 1024.3 Offensive Plays (League Average) Player G Tm Plays %Plays Tgt Rec Yds TD WR1 16.0 1024 12.9 133 81 1083 6.5 WR2 16.0 1024 9.8 101 60 815 5.3 WR1&2 Combined 16.0 1024 11.4 117 71 949 5.9 1 Julio Jones 16.0 ATL (WR1) 1024 16.8 172 110 1682 6.3 2 Odell Beckham 16.0 NYG (WR1) 1024 16.0 163 114 1641 15.1 3 Antonio Brown 16.0 PIT (WR1) 1024 16.9 174 124 1629 12.5 4 Jordy Nelson 16.0 GNB (WR1) 1024 15.1 155 100 1554 13.3 5 Demaryius Thomas 16.0 DEN (WR1) 1024 17.2 177 107 1554 10.6 6 Emmanuel Sanders 16.0 DEN (WR2) 1024 13.2 135 97 1348 8.6 8 T.Y. Hilton 16.0 IND (WR1) 1024 12.6 130 81 1330 6.9 9 Randall Cobb 16.0 GNB (WR2) 1024 12.7 130 93 1317 12.3 13 DeSean Jackson 16.0 WAS (WR2) 1024 10.1 103 61 1270 6.5 15 Jeremy Maclin 16.0 PHI (WR1) 1024 12.7 130 77 1198 9.1 27 Kenny Stills 16.0 NOR (WR2) 1024 8.1 83 63 929 3.0 42 Jordan Matthews 16.0 PHI (WR2) 1024 9.1 94 61 793 7.3

Observations:

Jordan Matthews Stats have gone down slightly which shows the "Chip Kelly Effect" is a real thing. However, I don't think fans would have been upset with a stat line of 61 rec/ 793 yds/ 7 TD for his rookie year. He would have finished 42nd overall, instead of 31st, if the Eagles called an average number of plays his rookie season.

A handful of players benefitted form the "Reverse Chip Kelly Effect" including Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb & DeSean Jackson.

Conversely, most players on this list were benefactors of the "Chip Kelly Effect" in 2014, because their team called more than 1024.3 offensive plays. Because most players were affected in the same way, this list looks largely the same as the previous list.

WR1 & WR2 numbers barely changed. This is because approximately half the receivers benefitted from the "Chip Kelly Effect" and approximately half showed reduced stat lines because of it. This was also expected from the beginning and should be true over any season.

The "Chip Kelly Effect" is real, but it doesn't negate all of Matthews value as a pass-catcher. I could have concluded here, but what is the fun in that? Next I changed the %Plays column to show what all of the stats would look like if each receiver benefitted from being targeted on 12.9% of offensive plays like the average WR1 had. I also did this using the 9.8% of offensive plays like the average WR2 had. Here are the results:

Adjusted to 133 Targets (Adjusted WR1 Average) Player G Tm Plays %Plays Tgt Rec Yds TD WR1 16.0 1024 12.9 133 81 1077 6.3 WR2 16.0 1024 12.9 133 79 1065 6.5 WR1&2 Combined 16.0 1024 12.9 133 80 1071 6.4 1 DeSean Jackson 16.0 WAS (WR2) 1024 12.9 133 78 1631 8.4 2 Kenny Stills 16.0 NOR (WR2) 1024 12.9 133 101 1486 4.8 3 T.Y. Hilton 16.0 IND (WR1) 1024 12.9 133 83 1361 7.1 4 Randall Cobb 16.0 GNB (WR2) 1024 12.9 133 95 1343 12.5 5 Jordy Nelson 16.0 GNB (WR1) 1024 12.9 133 86 1333 11.4 6 Odell Beckham 16.0 NYG (WR1) 1024 12.9 133 93 1330 12.2 7 Emmanuel Sanders 16.0 DEN (WR2) 1024 12.9 133 95 1319 8.5 8 Julio Jones 16.0 ATL (WR1) 1024 12.9 133 85 1295 4.9 13 Antonio Brown 16.0 PIT (WR1) 1024 12.9 133 94 1243 9.5 16 Jeremy Maclin 16.0 PHI (WR1) 1024 12.9 133 79 1221 9.3 21 Demaryius Thomas 16.0 DEN (WR1) 1024 12.9 133 80 1166 7.9 23 Jordan Matthews 16.0 PHI (WR2) 1024 12.9 133 86 1122 10.3

Adjusted to 101 Targets (Adjusted WR2 Average) Player G Tm Plays %Plays Tgt Rec Yds TD WR1 16.0 1024 9.8 101 62 820 4.8 WR2 16.0 1024 9.8 101 60 810 4.9 WR1&2 Combined 16.0 1024 9.8 101 61 815 4.9 1 DeSean Jackson 16.0 WAS (WR2) 1024 9.8 101 59 1240 6.4 2 Kenny Stills 16.0 NOR (WR2) 1024 9.8 101 77 1131 3.6 3 T.Y. Hilton 16.0 IND (WR1) 1024 9.8 101 63 1035 5.4 4 Randall Cobb 16.0 GNB (WR2) 1024 9.8 101 72 1022 9.5 5 Jordy Nelson 16.0 GNB (WR1) 1024 9.8 101 65 1014 8.7 6 Odell Beckham 16.0 NYG (WR1) 1024 9.8 101 71 1012 9.3 7 Emmanuel Sanders 16.0 DEN (WR2) 1024 9.8 101 72 1004 6.4 8 Julio Jones 16.0 ATL (WR1) 1024 9.8 101 64 985 3.7 13 Antonio Brown 16.0 PIT (WR1) 1024 9.8 101 72 946 7.2 16 Jeremy Maclin 16.0 PHI (WR1) 1024 9.8 101 60 929 7.0 21 Demaryius Thomas 16.0 DEN (WR1) 1024 9.8 101 61 887 6.0 23 Jordan Matthews 16.0 PHI (WR2) 1024 9.8 101 66 853 7.8

Final Observations:

The order of all 64 players is the same in both tables because "Receiving yards per target" has not changed, only the number of targets has.

If all things were equal, DeSean Jackson would have led the league in yards with 1631. This is still less than Antonio Brown actually put up in 2014.

Antonio Brown drops from 2nd to 21st place, showing he was a benefactor of the "Chip Kelly Effect".

If all Wide Receivers were thrown the ball 101 times, Jordan Matthews would have finished in 23rd place with almost the exact same stat line as he actually finished the season with.

I still think the Eagles should have signed Kenny Stills this offseason. More than any other player in the league, he can benefit from a high volume offense.

Alshon Jeffery finished this exercise 34th overall but started 14th overall. Alshon Jeffery was a much bigger benefactor of the "Chip Kelly Effect" than either Jeremy Maclin or Jordan Matthews. Given 101 Targets, Jeffery would have had a stat line of 101 rec/ 788 yd/ 7 TD, which is pretty equivalent to what Jordan Matthews put up.

Torrey Smith started this exercise 40th but moved up to finish 27th overall. Smith suffered from a lack of volume, presumably because Steve Smith was added to the Ravens Offense.

The Top 5 benefactors of the "Chip Kelly Effect" in 2014 were: Andre Johnson, Kelvin Benjamin, Vincent Jackson, Julian Edelman, & Alshon Jeffery.

The Bottom 5, or the players who suffered from this effect the most, were: Stedman Bailey, Terrance Williams, Nate Washington, Kenny Stills & Kenny Britt. Hmm If only the Eagles would have signed some of these players as one BGN user recommended!

Obviously this study is not an end all be all, but I think it is very apparent that Jordan Matthews did not suffer too much from the dreaded "Chip Kelly Effect." The Eagles would be smart to sign Matthews to an average WR2 salary immediately as I have a hunch he will have his best season yet playing alongside an improved Eagles offense. Unfortunately for Matthews, I do not make the decisions and he will have to prove his worth. I just fear that once he does, he will become too expensive for Philadelphia's blood.

These articles can take a good bit of time and effort and I do it for you, so if you enjoyed what you just read please "Rec" this post below to help others find it. Please let me know what you think in the comments below and feel free to ask how any particular wide out faired as I have the spreadsheet handy. I am also open to any ideas of similar thought experiments you might have, so feel free to run them by me.