If you look at the Wild Card DFS round overall, it was a failure. I personally wasn’t really on Derrick Henry, and I was on the wrong side of the D.K. Metcalf ownership.

You needed those guys to take down a GPP, among other things.

On top of not rostering them, I also had a fair amount of Carson Wentz (concussion), Tom Brady, and Kirk Cousins (meh). My NFL DFS playoff value picks didn’t get much better from there.

The Divisional Round offers a brand-new chance at winning big, though. You can opt to do that by betting on the games at the top NFL betting sites or by throwing some of my favorite daily fantasy football sleepers into your lineups.

With that, here are my favorite NFL DFS sleepers for the Divisional Round.

Top NFL DFS Quarterback Sleepers

Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings ($5.7k)

Jimmy Garoppolo – San Francisco 49ers ($5.6k)

Ryan Tannehill – Tennessee Titans ($5.4k)

We only have four games to work with, so the pickings are slim for value quarterbacks. That mostly points you to the three cheapest guys, although I will say I think Aaron Rodgers ($6.5k) is a little sneaky as the cheapest of the “stud” passers this week.

It’s possible you don’t want to spend $8.4k on Lamar Jackson or $7.5k on Patrick Mahomes. They both have fantastic matchups on paper, but this is the playoffs, and round one showed us we can’t trust anything we’ve already seen.

Not completely, at least.

If you punt at quarterback, I like Jimmy G the most. One reason why is I have the 49ers as my new favorites to win it all this year and I think he’s about to go on a tear. As in, a dominant path that leads to him being the Super Bowl 54 MVP.

Minnesota is good defensively, but the Niners protect Garoppolo well, and he’s got a lightning-quick release.

The Vikings were shockingly good at getting to Drew Brees last week, but I think that ends up being harder for them in this game. That could expose a beatable secondary that was just a middle-of-the-pack unit in 2019.

You can tempt fate and back Cousins here, too. Our own Michael Wynn took Minnesota to win in our Vikings vs. 49ers betting preview. If that is to happen, my guess is Cousins needs a big day.

Ryan Tannehill is the other flier play, as he’s been great for the Titans and may be needed against Baltimore, win or lose.

I probably will pay up at quarterback in some capacity this week. But if I do try to save cash here, I think Jimmy G gives me the best path to success.

Running Back Values to Target in DFS

Damien Williams – Kansas City Chiefs ($6k)

Raheem Mostert – San Francisco 49ers ($5.8k)

Marshawn Lynch – Seattle Seahawks ($4.8k)

We need to be very wary of Marshawn Lynch going full “Beast Mode” this week. I know he’s looked like a guy who just got signed off the street, but he’s scored in three straight games and is just getting his legs under him.

Lynch has had a lot of success against the Green Bay Packers in the past, and they had major troubles with stopping the run for large chunks of 2019. Seattle is my favorite Divisional Round upset pick , and if that’s going to happen, it’s quite likely Lynch will end up smashing this price tag.

As enticing as Lynch is, you also need to look at Raheem Mostert. The top two running back studs (Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook) are in tough spots and could potentially end up being huge disappointments.

I don’t suggest fading them across the board, but getting off of one of them and saving some cash may make sense. Mostert, who has scored in each of his last six games, has a locked-in role as San Francisco’s lead back.

I’m not on board with Michael for this game. I see the Niners winning, and Mostert will likely end up benefiting because of it.

You can look at both of these guys, but I’ll likely be prioritizing Damien Williams. I want my hands all over the KC offense this week, as the Chiefs hung 24 points on the Texans with a gimpy Patrick Mahomes earlier this year, and I think they’ll do a heck of a lot more than that this time around.

Williams immediately reminded us of his DFS upside in week 17 (34 fantasy points!) and is the unquestioned top back for the Chiefs going into postseason play. He’s an asset as a receiver, volume rusher, and goal-line back, making him a total stud — chalky or not — at this price tag.

It’s pretty arguable the Chiefs need Williams to play well to win this game, and it’s possible you’ll need him in your NFL DFS lineups, too.

Best NFL DFS Wide Receiver Sleeper Picks

A.J. Brown – Tennessee Titans ($6k)

Stefon Diggs – Minnesota Vikings ($5.6k)

Allen Lazard – Green Bay Packers ($4.5k)

I won’t be as long-winded here, as A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs need no introduction. They are proven DFS studs at this point and can drop 30+ fantasy points in the blink of an eye.

There is understandable reservation when you look at their matchups, plus Diggs has missed some practice time with an illness. But they’ll be staples of my daily fantasy football lineups this week due to their roles and upside.

That said, there are other stud receivers you can convince yourself to splurge for, so perhaps an even cheaper wide receiver is needed. One Allen Lazard stands out as a viable cheap play, as he’s seen his role grow exponentially, and it’s to the point where he’s seen 8+ targets in each of his last two games.

Davante Adams is still the breadwinner at wide receiver in Green Bay, but Lazard has shown a knack for making big plays. I would be shocked if Aaron Rodgers didn’t give him some chances to win down the field against a beatable Seahawks secondary.

Tight End Values to Use in NFL DFS

Jacob Hollister – Seattle Seahawks ($4k)

Kyle Rudolph – Minnesota Vikings ($3.4k)

Jimmy Graham – Green Bay Packers ($3.3k)

Kyle Rudolph remains too cheap after playing the controversial hero for the Vikings in overtime last week. His role can fluctuate week to week, but I expect the Vikings having to take it to the air in this one, while he can always smash this tag with a touchdown.

There’s also Hollister, who has been one of Russell Wilson’s favorite targets and gets a solid matchup against a Green Bay defense that has been burned by tight ends. The Packers have been better defensively lately, but the middle of the field has been an issue with them when it comes to this position.

All true, but I am probably either punting with Jimmy Graham or just paying up for one of the three studs — Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or Mark Andrews.

That’s the preferred route, but Graham is very sneaky against his former Seahawks brethren, especially since they’ve been awful (31st) against the tight end position on the year.

Top NFL DFS Defense Sleepers

San Francisco 49ers ($3k)

Green Bay Packers ($2.8k)

Tennessee Titans ($2.4k)

The 49ers are probably my favorite defense to use this week, and you’re somehow getting them at a $600 discount off of the top unit (Ravens). They’re not exactly cheap, but they’re also not priced like an elite unit.

San Francisco gets the Vikings at home, and while I think they give up some points, they are so aggressive that you have to think we get a fair number of sacks, fumbles, and interceptions. You’re also naturally assuming Kirk Cousins unravels, while the Niners always offer that defensive touchdown upside.

Even though I’m picking against the Packers this week, there’s still an obvious path toward a ton of sacks and some turnovers. Green Bay’s defense has been pretty opportunistic all year, and it’s still possible they wreck the one-man show that is Russell Wilson.

Is this the week the wheels fall off for the Ravens? I doubt it, but the Titans popped off as an elite value against the Patriots last week, so anything can happen. Tennessee ranks 12th against the run and ranks inside the top 10 in interceptions.

If that run defense shows up and forces Lamar Jackson to air it out, it’s possible they come up with some big turnovers. I doubt it, but you can save some cash here and hope for the best.

Divisional Round NFL Odds

Tennessee Titans (+10) -123 vs. Baltimore Ravens (-10) +103

Houston Texans (+9.5) -105 vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) -115

Minnesota Vikings (+7) -109 vs. San Francisco 49ers (-7) -111

Seattle Seahawks (+4) -110 vs. Green Bay Packers (-4) -110

If you need help with betting on these games, go take a look at my complete Divisional Round betting preview. You can also hit up our NFL Betting Guide for our expert NFL playoff picks and more.

For DFS, the top game to target without a doubt appears to be in Kansas City, where the Chiefs prepare to battle the Texans. Houston’s offense runs hot and cold, but they hung 31 points on Kansas City earlier this year and scored 22 against a good Bills defense (all in the second half and OT).

Houston is explosive, and the Chiefs aren’t dominant defensively. That combines to threaten a 51 total and should make for a great spot for DFS weapons.

The second-best game is probably in Green Bay (47 total), as both the Packers and Seahawks have gotten burned at times this year. Check the weather for cold and wind, but I like a lot of options in that game.

For the other two games, I’d primarily focus on Ravens and 49ers players, with a greater emphasis on Vikings and Titans pass-catchers. Does that mean you need to fade Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry? No, but those teams falling behind could spell trouble for them.

Summary

Whatever your daily fantasy football strategy ends up being this week, I think you need a hand in that Texans vs. Chiefs game. You’ll also want to load up on a few studs, regardless of how you project game environment.

I probably prefer a more balanced approach, but fading Henry, Cook, Lamar Jackson, and the top tight ends is certainly a scary thought. But here’s the thing; you can’t play everyone in one lineup.

You’ll simply have to pick your spots. Focusing on a couple of teams or 1-2 games is a great way to help you do that. Regardless of your build plan, I hope these NFL DFS value picks assist you in some way.