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If anyone knows tsunami debris, it would be the folks at the Port of Brookings Harbor. So far, they've cleaned up about four pickup loads of local rubble generated from the tsunami that destroyed their harbor last March, said Port Director Ted Fitzgerald. And there's still at least another truckload worth to be hauled away.

Now, they're wondering how much more to expect from the 9.0-magnitude earthquake and tsunami that devastated eastern Japan last year.

"We're waiting to learn what we can," Fitzgerald said. "If there is a forecast I am glad to hear it. I don't know if anyone is even keeping track of where it is."

There is. And they are. But after that, the details get a little murky.

Tsunami maps

The Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries recently released new tsunami inundation maps for Coos Bay and expects to release 81 more over the next two years.

"They take the best possible modeling of the tsunami and they display that in a way that is simple, easy to understand and makes it easy to orient yourself on the map," said Ian Madin, chief scientist with the department.

The maps depict the possible scenarios for tsunamis based on the size of the earthquake and are classified in T-shirt sizes, S, M, L, XL and XXL.

"People need to know what level of risk they face so they can make the appropriate decision," Madin said. "For members of the general public who live on the coast they are probably not going to move up the hill because of the likelihood of a tsunami. But it's important that that information be available for the people who live there and the people who come along after them."

-- Lori Tobias

"No one knows when and where and how much of it will arrive, or whether it will arrive or not," said Tomoko Dodo, senior consul with the Japanese Consulate in Seattle. "The Japanese government has set up an interagency task force involving all the relevant ministries, and it is now conducting research about the amount of debris that washed out and may be floating in the ocean."

But s

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," said Jack Barth, professor of oceanography at Oregon State University. "We think it's still some time, many months, before the real bulk of debris starts hitting the Oregon coast, likely late 2012, early 2013."

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One is the concern that the debris may be radioactive. Not likely, Barth said. The radioactive releases from the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant occurred two to three days after the tsunami, but even if something were radioactive, the natural pounding and washing of the waves and rain would scrub off any particulates.

Some people wonder if body parts will wash ashore. The quake and tsunami killed almost 20,000 people. Again, unlikely, given the distance and conditions at sea between Japan and the Pacific Northwest.

And some fear the debris will wash ashore in large raft-sized slabs. The tsunami swept away houses, boats and cars. But the wind has already dispersed much of the debris, Barth said.

A lot of the rubble may never arrive, but will sink or get caught up in what's known as the "garbage patch" far out at sea. As for the buoy believed to be from the tsunami found on a Washington beach near Neah Bay, Dodo said that hasn't been confirmed.

"We went and looked at it, but it was impossible for us to confirm," she said. "There is no clear evidence it is from there. That kind of buoy could have been made in Japan. They say there are buoys like that used in oyster farms, but there are oyster farms all around."

And that may be an issue identifying much of the debris when it arrives -- is it from the tsunami or is it just the usual trash that routinely shows up from Asia on Northwest beaches?

"There are ships going back and forth all the time, things going overboard," Barth said. "Even the writing, without detailed translation, may not tell you. The question is how much more is the tsunami debris going to add?

"The Japanese tell us there are 25 million tons by their estimate. We don't know whether it will be like a doubling of what we normally see come up on Oregon beaches. I don't think it will be so much that it will be a navigation hazard or clog up the ports. But I think it could increase the amount we get on the beaches."

When the debris does arrive, beachcombers can expect to see plastic, lumber, floats and buoys -- and probably a few oddities, too -- such what as workers found in Brookings from the local destruction.

"The weirdest find was a VCR collection of movies from the '70s," Fitzgerald said of cleanup efforts in Brookings. "The coolest thing we found was from an old schooner that sank. We recovered the old silver dollar they put on the keel for good luck."

There's a good possibility people will find personal effects from Japan.

"We know there are several thousand Japanese unaccounted for," Barth said. "I think Oregonians need to be sensitive if there are keepsakes or personal items that may be valuable to the Japanese, a wallet, a piece of clothing that is identifiable, contact the OSU extension agents or local officials."

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