If Rafael Nadal is to win his third US Open here on Sunday afternoon – which seems likely after his merciless crushing of Juan Martín del Potro – he will have to nullify the awesome serve of Kevin Anderson, the South African appearing in his first slam final at the 34th attempt.

The Spaniard has been to this stage of tournaments 108 times previously, 22 of them in majors, in his trophy-heavy career. It is where he has played the overwhelming majority of his best tennis, in big-stage showdowns with Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. Only rarely does he falter near the end of a slam fortnight; indeed, his win over Del Potro on Friday night was his 15th in a row in a slam semi. The locker-room mantra has always been, if you are going to get him, get him early. It may be that Anderson is getting him too late, in every sense.

The South African is 31 and, for all his best efforts, there is a reason other than injury and bad luck that he is ranked No32 in the world while Nadal is No1, even though there is only 16 days between them in age. He has a considerable deficit in pure skill to overcome.

Nadal repeated his philosophy before the match: “For me, more than winning grand slams or not – of course, if I win, I will be more happy – but is about being healthy, and feel myself well and competitive.”

That is all well and good in a press conference. On court Nadal turns into the most competitive, intense animal on the Tour. But Anderson has that serve. And what a weapon it is. He goes into the biggest match of his life with 114 aces for the fortnight, 28 more than the next best, Sam Querrey. He has won a phenomenal 336 points on first serve, 83%. On second serve, where a lot of matches are won, he is tied for eighth place, winning 57%. And 48% of his serves overall have been unreturnable.

Countering such a blizzard of numbers, however, Nadal gets 74% of his service returns in, winning the point 40% of the time on first serve and 55% on second serve. There are not many better defenders in the game. Nobody here in the past two weeks won more points from the baseline than Nadal – 58%, 10% more than Anderson. If they get into a slugging match, there will only be one winner and he will not come from Johannesburg.

Nevertheless, Anderson deserves to be here. He came through the weakest side of a draw that any experienced observer could recall in a slam. It was to be Andy Murray’s half, but he pulled out just after the draw was made and chaos ensued, as Federer remained on Nadal’s side of the lottery. As it happened, they did not meet in the semi-finals, because Del Potro stopped Federer in the quarters. Anderson played his part perfectly, finding his best tennis to beat Pablo Carreño Busta in four sets on Friday.

He said he was going to celebrate because it meant so much to him to get even this far, but he will be up for the fight. It is second nature to him. A year ago, a hip injury nearly ended his career – or at least might have taken a full year out of it. Murray, who also contemplated surgery but decided against it, might take heart from the big man’s experience.

Anderson, the first South African in the final here since Cliff Drysdale lost to Manuel Santana on the grass of Forest Hills in 1965, could hardly stop smiling after winning his semi-final in just under three hours, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, 6-4.

“I will be playing for a grand slam trophy,” he said, incredulously. “That’s an amazing feeling. I have to get ready, but right now I’m just trying to unwind a little bit and enjoy it.”

He said of his injury woes in 2016: “There were a couple that definitely forced me away from the Tour, but there were a few that were constantly nagging injuries. Towards the end of the year, my hip really played up, and that was probably the most severe injury. It seemed like surgery was maybe even on the table. I was fortunate to have escaped that whole thing.”

And he sent out a message to Murray to call him if he wants to talk about hip injuries. “It was diagnosed as a labrum tear. I spoke to several doctors. It’s a tricky injury. If anybody has labrum issues, they’d like to talk to me about it, feel free. I learned a lot about it. After speaking to a lot of people who had similar issues, surgery is always a last resort. I was fortunate enough to be acquainted with some very good physios who thought I could beat it without getting surgery.

“It took a lot of work, several hours a day over almost two months. Even after that, there was another couple months of rehab. I feel the biggest plus is when all the work you do really pays off, where surgery just becomes a whole different ball game. It’s something I was fortunate to avoid.”