The Padres’ need for a starting pitcher or two lines up with an offseason in which a number of good ones are available.

But the team has all but decided the two right-handers at the top of the class are out of its reach, even though the franchise has recently pushed the boundary lines of what it will do to acquire veteran players.

Sources familiar with the Padres’ extensive plans this offseason say it is virtually certain the team will not award a massive free agent deal for a second straight winter. Specifically, that quashes the hopes of bringing San Diego native Stephen Strasburg or Orange County native Gerrit Cole back close to home.

“Not going to happen,” said one team official.


Still, it should be noted that it wasn’t until after the market had settled and then stagnated last offseason that the Padres became suitors for Manny Machado.

The team’s first meeting with Machado’s representatives was in mid-January, two months after multiple Padres officials had emphatically denied the possibility of pursuing the All-Star third baseman.

On Feb. 19, Machado agreed to a 10-year, $300 million contract that was at the time the largest ever awarded a free agent in any sport.

The wizardry of General Manager A.J. Preller when it comes to convincing ownership to spend big has become something to wink and smile about for those inside the organization. It would be foolish, one team official cautioned, to rule out another splash.


It is folly, too, to read too much into Preller’s words. The GM, even at his most candid, is cagey.

“There will be check-ins,” Preller said Tuesday at the GM meetings. “There already have been some check-ins. We’ll see. There is obviously going to be a lot of competition for those guys at the top of the free agent class. We’ll look at a lot of options. … There is some flexibility payroll- and budget-wise. We’ve been building up to the point to continue to increase our payroll. We’ll be open. The next few weeks we’ll try to figure out what path is best for us. Is it considering one or two guys we line up with that we feel is the best play or is it multiples, and we’re considering what we have to spend.”

Earlier, he said: “I don’t think a lot of people thought we’d be talking about Manny Machado in February, and we were.”

However, should the numbers that executives from various teams say Strasburg’s agent is talking about hold up as the going price, the Padres will almost certainly not be in the market for the West Hills High and San Diego State alumnus.


Word is, agent Scott Boras is seeking a minimum commitment of six years at $30-34 million a year for the 31-year-old Strasburg, who was named MVP of last month’s World Series won by the Nationals.

That is too rich and too long a deal for the Padres, according to people familiar with their plans. That also makes it exceedingly unlikely Cole will end up wearing brown in 2020. The ceiling of Strasburg’s ask is expected to be the floor for the 29-year-old Cole, who is considered a favorite for the American league Cy Young award.

A four- or five-year commitment, at $16-20 million a year, for 29-year-old Zack Wheeler, is a more likely target for the Padres. And officials over the past few days have seemed more inclined to believe the Padres will achieve the bulk of their offseason to-do list through trades.

The Padres’ current commitments, including projected arbitration numbers, put their 2020 payroll at around $120 million. Sources say the targeted opening day payroll is between $130-140 million, which would likely place the Padres near the middle of the 30 major league teams.


With the other additions required to make their roster competitive with playoff teams, the team’s thinking is it can’t give one player all their available money. But with the projected payroll increase and the likelihood some current players are moved, there appears ample room to add the salaries of multiple free agents — or veterans with manageable contracts acquired in trade.

And as the first full day of the annual GM meetings commenced Tuesday at the Omni Resort & Spa here, that appears it will be the more immediate plan.

In fact, as rare as actual deals consummated this early in the offseason are, Preller arrived in the desert Monday with the intention of making trades. Over the past few days, up until Monday evening, sources said Preller could be on the verge of multiple potential trades that would in the Padres’ estimation upgrade the major league roster.

There is no doubt inside the organization that time has come. The feeling is Preller has sat on his highly touted stable of prospects long enough. The mandate now is to begin putting the final touches on a brown-and-gold contender at the major league level.


“That’s always a huge part of the job,” Preller said, “understanding when is time to go, when is the time to hold, who are the right players to protect and hold onto, who are the guys we feel are crucial to the big picture of the organization, who are the guys we feel … we need to move on. That is the job, basically, balancing that out.”

Presented before the meetings began with the scuttlebutt he was possibly on the verge of hitting the ground running here, Preller shrugged. But he did allow this: “Early, trade conversations seems to be increased and there has been more chatter, more talk.”

Preller doesn’t talk to many people about where he is, will be or was five minutes ago. His responses to such queries range from “Don’t worry about it” to “I’m not going to tell you” to other more colorful rejoinders. His desire to protect all conceivable competitive advantage borders on compulsion.

But when someone is on the phone seemingly half of his waking hours, as Preller is, and has been talking to other teams about players, dating back to before the trade deadline, people talk. Some of those people talk to people, who talk to other people.


Additionally, the Padres have some well-known needs that give an inkling where the team’s focus might be.

The team could try to acquire two starting pitchers. There are numerous starting pitchers available in free agency that could provide an upgrade to the Padres’ rotation. Even after Wheeler, there are a number of pitchers who could arguably slip into the Padres rotation near the top.

The Padres’ right-handed heavy lineup contributed to their offense being among the worst in the majors against right-handed pitching in 2019. At least one bat who can hit from both sides is considered a must, and it is generally believed that player will be an outfielder. The Padres were involved in trade talks regarding the Rays’ Austin Meadows, the Rangers’ Nomar Mazara and the Dodgers’ Alex Verdugo in July. These were not inconsequential pursuits either.

The arrival of one or more outfielders could coincide with the departure of Hunter Renfroe, who was sought by multiple teams before the trade deadline.


It has become apparent to the Padres that Luis Urias is not the long-term answer at second base, and the multiple players in the Padres’ farm system who could end up there are a year or more away from the majors. So acquiring a veteran as an interim starter is possible.

Word is Preller is also looking to improve the Padres’ catching situation, finding a starter who hits better than Austin Hedges and defends better than Francisco Mejia. Hedges has been coveted by numerous teams for the better part of two years.

Preller acknowledges he didn’t walk into the Omni starting from scratch. His coming close in July set him up for November.

“I can tell even over the course of the last few weeks, some of those situations, it definitely laid the groundwork for continued conversations right now, and it’s picked up where it left off,” he said. “Others, it’s been three months; things change.”


He’s here ready to make moves.

The GM meetings are ostensibly for MLB officials to discuss potential changes to the game and/or its policies. But practically, it is the chance for the deal makers — general managers and agents — to be in the same place.

“You start to prioritize the important conversations,” Preller said. “… You spent the past month canvassing the league. When everyone is in the same room, it’s just easy access.”

