Netflix is starting to look like a mature, established company with its 125 million worldwide subscribers, but the streaming-bundle business — subscribing to NBC, HGTV, Discovery, etc., as a bundled streaming service — is still in its early days with an estimated 4.6 million to 5.3 million subscribers across a half-dozen competitors.

Early entrants like DirecTV Now, Hulu Live TV and Sling TV may (or may not) become the big winners as the market grows, but two research reports out this week cast DirecTV Now and Hulu Live TV as leaders and Sling TV as a laggard in the growth of streaming-bundle services over the last year.

Strategy Analytics: DirecTV Now Could Top Sling TV

In 2017, DirecTV Now added 1 million subscribers and Sling TV added 700,000, according to an estimate by the research firm Strategy Analytics that FierceCable editor Daniel Frankel reported on Monday. “While first-to-market has had its advantages for Sling TV,” the report noted, “DirecTV Now had a more impressive gain of subscribers in 2017.”

Sling TV launched in February 2015 and reported in February 2018 that it had reached 2.2 million subscribers. DirecTV Now launched in November 2016 and reported Wednesday that it has nearly 1.5 million subscribers. Strategy Analytics forecast in its report that “Sling TV could potentially be overtaken by DirecTV Now” but didn’t prescribe a timeframe.

“While live TV streaming services like Sling TV are not prioritized as being mobile,” the report said, “with smartphones continuing to expand actual display real estate size, along with faster data speeds and improved video displays, smartphones should be prominently marketed as an alternative screen for not just on the go, but while others may be occupying a TV.”

If that’s the case, it’s a significant advantage for DirecTV Now. The competing services are both operated by companies that also operate satellite brands — AT&T for DirecTV Now, Dish Network for Sling TV — but AT&T also operates the second-largest U.S. mobile carrier and is a federal antitrust verdict away from also owning Time Warner and it HBO, Turner and Warner Bros. assets. That premium programming would make AT&T and even more ferocious streaming-TV competitor.

Apptopia: Major Streamers Outpacing Sling TV

For the 12 months ending in March 2018, market researcher Apptopia estimates that DirecTV Now, Hulu Live TV, YouTube TV and fuboTV all saw considerable growth in their monthly active users, PlayStation Vue was flat or slightly down, and Sling TV contracted 34 percent.

The Sling TV estimate is problematic given that Sling TV reported in February 2018 that it had reached 2.2 million subscribers by the end of 2017 and added 160,000 of those subscribers in the fourth quarter of 2017. The Apptopia report is stated in percentage growth rather than subscriber growth, so it’s not surprising that newer services would show bigger percentage gains in year-over-year growth.

“Millions of people continue to pick Sling TV because of our dedication to delivering the best TV experience,” Sling TV president Warren Schlichting wrote in a statement to Decider in response to a request for comment about the two reports. “We’re the No. 1 live-streaming TV service because we provide our customers with the greatest stability, the most choice and control over their programming packages, on the most devices, all at the best price. It’s why we grew 47 percent year-over-year.”

This is still the early innings of a long game. YouTube TV has Google’s global reach behind it, and Hulu could shift its priorities after the dust settles from owners Comcast, Disney, 21st Century Fox and Time Warner’s current mergers. Startup streamers like fuboTV (sports) Philo (lifestyle) could tip the market toward particular types of programming. Netflix is still growing in the United States and internationally, and Disney is launching its own service in 2019. Sling TV parent Dish Network could find itself acquired by a broadband or mobile carrier.

The emergence of streamers like DirecTV Now and Youtube TV is too recent for reliable forecasts, but the five biggest services combined doubled their combined number of subscribers in 2017, and UBS Evidence Lab has estimated that the streamers could reach 15 million U.S. subscribers by 2020.

Scott Porch writes about the TV business for Decider, is a contributing writer for Playboy, and hosts a weekly podcast about new digital content called Consumed with Scott Porch. You can follow him on Twitter @ScottPorch.