The Toronto Blue Jays seem to believe they can still win this division, and despite all that’s gone wrong for them this year, it’d be tough to disagree.

The Blue Jays’ starting pitching has been disappointing, their bullpen remains a work in progress, and injuries have sidelined everyone from Jose Reyes and Devon Travis to Michael Saunders and Dioner Navarro. They’re tied for last in the weak American League East, yet they’re just 4.0 games out of first.

“Really if you look at it, you could probably say the whole division’s struggled this year,” manager John Gibbons said Wednesday. “At our end, we’re pretty fortunate for that. We had been been scuffling the last couple of weeks.”

During that time, the first-place New York Yankees lost 10 of 11 games, unable to pull away from their four division rivals. But since the Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays each have flaws of their own, no team stepped up and the standings remain muddled entering play Thursday.

“None of these teams have gotten any consistency, really, so we’re pretty fortunate about that,” Gibbons said. “Who knows if that’s going to change. We’ve caught a break to this point, that’s for sure.”

At some point in the next four months, some team will separate itself from the pack. If the Blue Jays want to be that team, they need the recent run of solid starting pitching to continue, they need answers in a vulnerable bullpen and they need to remain healthy. With Reyes back, and Travis and Navarro positioned to return within the week, the roster will soon be close to full strength.

“That’s what we need — having the whole team together,” Reyes said. “The key is going to be playing consistent baseball. Good defence, timely hitting, good pitching, good bullpen. If we’re able to do that stuff, I don’t see any problems. We can compete in the division.”

Putting it all together may sound easy, but it’s not. Health is never a sure thing, for one. And while the Blue Jays have been getting exceptional performances from the likes of Danny Valencia and Chris Colabello of late, counting on role players to carry the team for extended stretches would be risky, as the Blue Jays found out each of the past two seasons.

“That’s something that we missed last year, playing consistently through the year,” Reyes said. “If we are able to put it together in every aspect of the game, I think we’re going to be fine.”

Reyes’ goal? Win the division. And even though the Blue Jays have disappointed in so many ways — injuries, poor starting pitching, shaky relief pitching, infielders masquerading as outfielders — it’s within their grasp if statistically unlikely.

The Blue Jays now have a 15.8 per cent chance at making the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus. Russell Martin says the Blue Jays have a good team, and that they can beat those odds by playing to their ability. Marco Estrada goes a step further, expressing unequivocal confidence in the Blue Jays.

“Things are going to change for us,” Estrada said. “This team’s too good to lose as much as we have. We’ve got a great team and I know it’s going to turn around.”

For that to happen, the Blue Jays will need a lot to go right. They’ll need their young pitching to keep producing — Aaron Sanchez’s command must continue improving, Roberto Osuna has to continue getting big outs, Drew Hutchison needs to hold his own and Daniel Norris would ideally emerge to provide a mid-season boost.

They’ll also need top position players like Martin and Josh Donaldson to continue playing at an elite level. The offensive production of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion probably can’t go anywhere, either.

In other words, they Blue Jays will need their strengths to hold steady and their weaknesses to disappear. There’s no denying it’s a lot to ask of a team that’s been unable to string together an extended hot streak. The odds are stacked against them, but after a mostly encouraging showing against the Chicago White Sox, the Blue Jays expressed confidence that they’re turning things around.

“We’re feeling pretty good right now,” Gibbons said. “It’s a long way to go, but we’re feeling pretty good.”

The AL East is there for the taking for any of the five teams, and despite their shortcomings, that includes the Blue Jays. That’s more than many teams can say when they start the season 22-27.

Maybe the division’s finally ready to give back a little after so many years of relentlessly competitive teams. Now it’s on the Blue Jays to take advantage of it.