Anyone who thinks that the Internet revolution is in anything but its early phase had better take a look at Cisco's latest Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast (PDF). There are so many startling predictions and observations in the report that we'll just begin with these headlines:

There will be 788 million mobile-only Internet users by 2015.

Global mobile data traffic will increase by a factor of 26 by 2015.

World mobile data grew by a factor of 2.6 in 2010 from 2009.

Average smartphone usage doubled: 79 MB per month, up from 35 MB per month in 2009.

Android operating system data use is rapidly catching up to the iPhone.

In 2010 almost a third of smartphone traffic was offloaded onto fixed networks via dual-mode or Femtocells.

Millions of people around the world have cell phones but no electricity, and by 2015 a majority in the Middle East and Southeast Asia will live "off-grid, on-net."

"It is a testament to the momentum of the mobile industry that this growth persisted despite the continued economic downturn, the introduction of tiered mobile data packages, and an increase in the amount of mobile traffic offloaded to the fixed network," Cisco notes.

Three times three (almost)

For the third year in a row, global mobile data use has nearly tripled, Cisco says. And the growth isn't only happening in the places where mobile adoption is in its early phases. It's happening where the smartphone revolution has been going full bore for years.

In Italy, Telecom Italia delivered 15 times more mobile data traffic in 2010 than in 2007. AT&T says that its traffic jumped by a factor of 30 from third quarter of 2009 through the third quarter of 2010. China Unicom's 3G system saw a 62 percent traffic boost in a single quarter: Q1 to Q2 of 2010. Europe's TeliaSonera says it expects mobile data traffic to double each year for the next five years.

And Google reports that the number of YouTube videos delivered to mobile devices around the world tripled in 2010, to 200 million video views each day.

Double your pleasure

Why are these rates of data use growth exceeding most expectations? The huge popularity of smartphones among mobile phone subscribers.

"Last year we expected that the smartphone installed base would increase 22 percent in 2010, but Informa Telecoms and Media data indicates that the number of smartphones in use grew by 32 percent during the year," Cisco's mobile data report says. Bottom line: there were 399 million smartphones in use in 2009, but 526 million, aka over half a billion, smartphones in the hands of consumers the next year.

These phones constitute only a small portion of global handsets—a mere 13 percent. But they represent more than 78 percent of world mobile device traffic. In 2010, your garden variety smartphone ate up 24 times more mobile data (79 MB a month) than your minimum feature phone, which consumed a mere 3.3 MB a month.

And that average amount of traffic per smartphone in 2010 jumped to 79 MB a month from 35 MB in 2009.

On top of that:

other high-usage devices increased their presence on the mobile network. The number of mobile-connected laptops grew by 63 percent in 2010. A large percentage of mobile-connected laptop users consider mobile broadband their primary means of accessing the Internet, and in many regions there is a pronounced mobile broadband substitution effect. A recent survey by Ofcom [Britain's telecom regulator] indicates that the percentage of Internet users who have substituted mobile broadband for fixed broadband is 6 percent in the United Kingdom, 11 percent in Germany, and 13 percent in Italy. As expected, substitution users generate much more traffic than users who use mobile broadband as a complement to fixed networking.

Android rising

And beyond even that, a major chunk of those smartphones were the top data gobblers: the iPhone and Android. The sheer volume of these two devices exploded by 70 percent in 2010. This brought their united share of the smartphone market to 23 percent. That's over double what it was in 2009 (11 percent).

Cisco reports that in 2010 Android use dramatically caught up with the front runner. At the start of 2010 iPhone data consumption exceeded Android's by a factor of four. By the end of the year, the iPhone was only outpacing devices using the open source operating system by 1.75.

But there are two caveats to this impressive example of catch up. The first is that Verizon is now offering the iPhone, which may put a dent in the Android market.

The second is less obvious. "Android was one of the platforms that seemed to be affected the most by the introduction of tiered pricing," the report notes, "with monthly growth flattening in the final 3 months, and with a significant decline in month-to-month growth rates after the first 6 months."

Will tiered pricing and data caps slow down the music overall? Cisco isn't sure. A case study showed that three months after a service provider introduced tiered pricing, traffic continued to grow at a rate of five percent a month. "Although there may turn out to be longer-term effects, the overall measures in the 3 months following the pricing change reflect continued mobile data traffic growth," the report says.

Offloading the data

The Cisco survey says 40 percent of smartphone Internet use takes place in the home. Twenty-five percent of it happens at work. The rest occurs in transit.

But a surprising chunk of that traffic—especially the home variety, was offloaded onto fixed networks (your cable or DSL connection) via dual mode capabilities (e.g., mobiles with 3G and WiFi) or Femtocells—basically little broadband connection boosters that turn homes into mini cell phone towers.

How much? Thirty-one percent globally—14.3 petabytes of smartphone and tablet bits. "Without offload, traffic originating from smartphones and tablets would have been 51 petabytes per month rather than 37 petabytes per month in 2010."

And by 2015 over 800 million terabytes of mobile data traffic will be offloaded in this manner, Cisco predicts.

"Without dual-mode and femtocell offload of smartphone and tablet traffic, total mobile data traffic would reach 7.1 exabytes [roughly 7.1 million TB] per month in 2015, growing at a CAGR [Compound Annual Growth Rate] of 95 percent," the survey estimates.

Off-grid, on-net

Most interesting of all: "There are 48 million people in the world who have mobile phones, even though they do not have electricity at home," Cisco says. Such is the reach of mobile technology. Cisco calls this the "off-grid, on-net" population.

And the report predicts that by 2015, the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia will have more people who enjoy access to mobile networks than will have electrical connections to their houses.

But "'breaking the electricity barrier' may be a short-lived phenomenon," Cisco notes, "since electricity access is likely to catch up to mobile access in the long term (perhaps even in response to the demand for mobile services), but it is nevertheless a testament to the socio-economic impact of network access that mobile has extended beyond the reach of the power grid."

Predictions

Where is this all going?

For the first time, mobile video traffic will account for a majority of traffic (52.8 percent) by the end of this year.

Two-thirds of the world's mobile data traffic will be video by 2015.

Mobile network connection speeds will increase ten times by that year.

Mobile-connected tablets will produce the same amount of traffic in 2015 as the entire global mobile network in 2010.

"Mobile data is well on its way to become a necessity," Cisco concludes. "The next 5 years are projected to provide unabated mobile video adoption despite the recessionary trends in macroeconomic conditions."