Despite not being in the race for the playoffs themselves, the San Jose Earthquakes are playing a major role in deciding who earns the 5th seed in the Western Conference. Since the start of September, the Earthquakes have faced Portland twice and Vancouver once, and their next two games are against the Timbers and Whitecaps.

Just days after Portland’s 2-1 victory in San Jose, the teams face off again Wednesday night in Portland as the Timbers continue their push for a playoff berth. This is their third time facing off since the start of September.

Portland may have gotten a bit lucky on Saturday, with two deflected goals from Rodney Wallace helping the Timbers come back from down 1-0 to keep pace with Vancouver and remain just one point out of the playoffs with three games to go.

There was a visible shift in the game following Wallace’s second goal, as frustration seemed to build among the Earthquakes. Given the already physical nature of the Quakes play, a frustrated team became even more physical, culminating in this tackle from Pablo Pintos which earned him a red card, and will probably result in a lengthy suspension.

http://youtu.be/aFSjNkFvJdk?t=5m57s

In addition to being without Pintos, who started at RB, San Jose will also be missing CB Victor Bernardez, and midfielders Cordell Cato and Atiba Harris to international duty. Chris Wondolowski was also a late call-up to the USMNT roster for their upcoming friendlies, meaning the Quakes will also be missing their leading scorer. In Bernardez, the Quakes lose the heart of their defense. In addition, of the 35 goals SJ has scored this season, 24 have been scored by players who will miss Wednesday’s game.

The Timbers will be missing RB Alvas Powell, on international duty with Jamaica. While Powell has been playing well since earning a starting job, he’ll be easier to replace than the Quakes losses. Powell will likely be replaced by Jack Jewsbury, who, while offering less attacking ability than Powell, is an experienced player and a quality defender.

Bernardez’s absence will be particularly painful given the return of Diego Valeri from yellow card suspension. The last time these two teams played in Portland, Valeri contributed one of the most dominant individual performances of the season, registering two assists (and one hockey assist) and creating an incredible 13 chances. By comparison, last Saturday Portland created 11 chances as a team and San Jose created 7.

With Valeri suspended last weekend the Portland attack suffered. Some of their struggles can be attributed to the play of San Jose, but even so the Timbers lacked their usual flow in the attack. It took two late goals from Rodney Wallace to rescue the win and probably any chance of a playoff berth, and both of the goals could fairly be described as lucky.

The first one is a nice move from Wallace, but it takes a deflection which probably allows it to go just over the reach of SJ GK Jon Busch.

http://youtu.be/52WOqbjw2LE?t=12s

The second is even luckier, as Ridgewell’s header takes a wicked deflection off Wallace’s head and loops into the top corner.

http://youtu.be/htuX8ylwiDs?t=5s

Given the way this season has gone for Portland it’s probably about time they got some lucky bounces, but they’ll need Valeri on top form these last few games if they’re going to make the playoffs.

Key Matchup

With the SJ’s entire right side missing through suspension and international duty, look for Rodney Wallace and Jorge Villafaña to have a field day on the left for Portland. Wallace got lucky for his brace last time out, but a well-earned goal this time would not be a surprise.

Wallace has been in good form lately, and Villafaña has shown great ability to overlap and create from wide when Wallace cuts in, including this particularly fine cross for a Diego Valeri goal last month:

http://youtu.be/urywiPe5VXs

Playoff Watch

With just three games remaining, the Timbers remain one point behind the Whitecaps for the 5th seed in the West. Vancouver visits the Seattle Sounders this week, who will look to maintain their recent form as they push for the Supporters’ Shield. That should give Portland a perfect opportunity to take charge in the playoff race, and it’s an opportunity they cannot afford to pass up.

After facing San Jose, the Timbers are at home against Timber killers Real Salt Lake before ending the season on the road at FC Dallas, with a crucial CONCACAF Champions League match sandwiched in between. Vancouver has a much easier final two games, taking on San Jose on the road and Colorado at home.

American Soccer Analysis’s playoff predictor model gives Portland the edge in the playoff race, mainly due to having two of their final three games at home.

That said, Portland faces two playoff teams in their final two games and has the added inconvenience of a CCL match, while Vancouver facing two teams in poor form. Add the fact that the Timbers have been better on the road than at home, and things look dicey for the Timbers. Either way, this matchup against the Quakes is an absolute must win for Portland.

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