During the World Series, you may have heard that the last time the Kansas City Royals won the World Series, Ferris Bueller still wouldn’t skip school for another year! Sportscasters and networks love these stats. While they are effective in making people feel old, this type of comparison is not always applicable. For example, the last time an NFL team made the playoffs in their current format[1] after starting 2-6 or worse, the #1 movie in America was…well…there is no answer. No team has made the playoffs after starting the season that poorly. To “put this in perspective”, the number of times I was born = 1, teams to start 2-6 and make the playoffs = 0.

In the span of the same 25 years, the teams in the below table started 3-5 and were able to make the playoffs.

Eleven teams, with just one additional win in those first 8 games, were able to win enough games in the second half of the season to make the playoffs. One game should not break an entire season, but year in and year out, a one game difference in the win/loss column is all that separates a playoff team from a team whose season ends in week 17. Last year, the AFC had four teams tied at 9-7, just one game out of the second wild card. In 2012, the Chicago Bears finished with the same record, 10-6, as the Minnesota Vikings, but missed the playoffs due to tiebreakers. Three of the Bears’ six losses came from weeks 13-15, all by one possession or less, including a seven point loss to those Minnesota Vikings. Every. Game. Matters. And that is what makes each and every week so enthralling to millions.

There are a multitude of reasons why no 2-6 team has recovered to make a playoff appearance in the same season. With only 12 of 32 teams making the playoffs, it is tough to overcome the many teams above you in the standings when you have already played half of your games and only won twice. Since 1990, three teams that reached the dubious 2-6 record went on to lose their final 8 games. We have seen the 2007 New England Patriots go undefeated in regular season play, and the Detroit Lions go defeated in 2008. How are these supposed anomalies happening with a higher frequency than a 2-6 team making the playoffs? The easy answer is a 2-6 team is generally a bad team.

A bad team and enough quality play elsewhere in the conference is an acceptable explanation in most seasons, but let’s take a look at why 2015 may feature the NFL’s current version of a 16 seed upset in March Madness. The following teams are those unfortunate enough to be 2-6 this season.[2] These four teams are ranked according to which team I think is most likely to become the first 2-6 team to enter the playoffs.

4. Baltimore Ravens (Expected Win-Loss according to Pro-Football-Reference: 3.4-4.6)

The Ravens are not the worst football team on this list. However, they are the only 2-6 team playing in a division with one of the league’s three remaining unbeatens. If a team wants to make the playoffs after starting 2-6, a lot of outside help is required. The 2013 Pittsburgh Steelers, the Ravens AFC North rival, were as close to a playoff team as any recent 2-6 team. The 2013 wild card chase was such a mess around Week 13 that I wrote the linked piece about figuring out a way to move the Arizona Cardinals from first team out of the NFC playoffs into the second wild card slot in the AFC. The Steelers flipped their win-loss record from the first half to finish at 8-8, and if the Chargers didn’t win their last four games to hit 9-7, this article may have had no reason to exist.

This year, Baltimore is six games out of the division lead, a much worse position than the three below teams. They still have Joe Flacco, who seems to fluctuate between elite and mediocre according to talking heads who don’t understand elite, Justin Forsett, and a great coach in John Harbaugh. However, the Ravens have been affected by injuries as much as any team. Terrell Suggs and Steve Smith, the emotional anchors of the defense and offense, are both gone with torn Achilles. Rookie Breshad Perriman hasn’t touched the field. Dennis Pitta was ruled out before the season started. The Ravens pass catching corps is comparable to the Panthers minus Greg Olsen. This is a team that had Super Bowl aspirations before the season, and just eight weeks in will be joining the many 2-6 teams before them who had their eyes set on draft status rather than playoff seeding.

How It Could Happen: With the stranglehold the Bengals have on the AFC North, a division title is out of the question. The Ravens needing to win the wild card is the biggest difference from the other three teams. There are currently seven teams ahead of the Ravens for the two wild card spots. They will need the division leaders to continue to rack up big win totals and have these middling teams stumble. The Ravens will more than likely need to win their next four as they face the Jaguars, Rams, Browns, and Dolphins before closing with the Seahawks, Chiefs, Steelers, and Bengals.

Bottom line: the Ravens are one of the season’s biggest disappointments and will be better suited aiming for a top pick for the first time since they last started 2-6 in 2005, the season before they drafted Haloti Ngata.

3. Dallas Cowboys (Expected W-L: 2.9-5.1)

If Tony Romo was eligible to return this week, the Cowboys would be in the number 1 spot of these rankings. Unfortunately, week 11 is the earliest he can return. Until proven otherwise, I simply don’t believe the combination of Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassell can win a game, regardless of the superhuman efforts of Dez Bryant.

The Cowboys started out 2-0 despite losing their best two players, Dez Bryant in week 1, and Romo in week 2, but these injuries caught up to them and they dropped their next 6. The NFC East would be on the receiving end of a few more jokes if it weren’t for a certain division that will be discussed later. Because of this seeming incompetence within the division, no team is eliminated yet. The Giants are currently leading with a shaky 5-4 record followed by the 4-4 Eagles. Unfortunately, the Cowboys have already played these two teams four times which takes some power out of their hands.

How It Could Happen: The Cowboys will need to prove they can win without Romo this week against the Buccaneers. A sweep of division rival Redskins is also a must. Greg Hardy will need to stop talking and just play football. A couple more wins against the Dolphins, Panthers, Packers, Jets, and Bills are important, but more critical will be the faltering of the Giants and Eagles at the top of the NFC East. Their chances could come down to the Week 17 matchup between the Giants and Eagles.

Bottom Line: Barring any further injuries, the Cowboys will have Dez Bryant and Tony Romo healthy for the final seven games of the season. The Cowboys only have three remaining opponents with a winning record. If there are enough losses around the rest of the NFC East, the Cowboys have a chance. I see the Cowboys staying in contention until the last two weeks before finishing at 7-9, and still think the Eagles gel enough to take the division with a winning record.

1B. Jacksonville Jaguars (Expected W-L: 2.5-5.5)

1A. Tennessee Titans (Expected W-L: 3.2-4.8)

To have the Titans and Jaguars at the top of a list in anything is shocking, and speaks to how important outside factors are for a 2-6 team to reach the promise land. The NFC East being thankful for another division’s incompetence was mentioned earlier; that division is the AFC South. The first place team has a losing record (4-5) and as much internal strife as a man on a diet in an ice cream shop. Oh, what’s that, their franchise quarterback is expected to be out at least a month with a lacerated kidney…and there are even some people saying that is a good thing? The second place team stands at 3-5 and is accountable for two of the eight highest point totals in the NFL this season, for the opposition. A quarterback responsible for over 40% of pass attempts was released after he had to fly commercial to an away game because he missed the team flight. And their starting All-Pro running back is out with a torn Achilles.

If there was ever a division where a 2-6 team could win, it is the AFC South. The AFC South has six wins over non-division opponents, and four of those have come from the Jaguars and Titans. At the halfway point, you can see how the division games have gone so far, and the remaining schedule.

Note those results for the Colts as all three wins were by seven points or less. If any of those games go the other way, the AFC South would be even more upside down than it currently is. This means one of two things moving into the second half. The Colts streak of 16 straight victories in the AFC South is about to end and the division will be wide open…or the Colts have proven they can win the close games and will use those three victories to stay ahead of the pack while the Titans and Jaguars will be left pondering their miscues. Although those final weeks, stacked with AFC South matchups, will bear much of the importance, the next few weeks might be more critical.

The Colts have done much of their heavy lifting, having already played three undefeated teams in the last four weeks, and have the easiest remaining schedule, albeit they will be facing the next few opponents with a backup. While Matt Hasselbeck won his two starts earlier in the year, this will not last. If he is forced into an extended starting role, the weekly games will take a toll on the 40 year old and the depleted secondary will continue to be exposed regardless.

The Texans face the division’s toughest remaining schedule with the Bengals and the Patriots remaining, and a December matchup in Buffalo. DeAndre Hopkins has officially made the leap, and watching him produce despite the quarterback play has been fascinating. But I don’t see this offense sans Arian Foster making up for the defense that is giving up over 25 points a game, despite JJ Watt’s best efforts.

This brings us to the two 2-6 teams that have a chance to make history. After a slow start, the Jaguars offense has started to click and they have scored at least 20 in the last four games (the two defensive touchdowns in London certainly help the point totals) despite a subpar running attack. Blake Bortles has had his ups and downs, but the emergence of Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns has to excite Jags fans moving forward. This young duo has combined for 76 catches-1342 yards-12 touchdowns so far this season. With Julius Thomas back at the tight end position, this team will score some points. The pass defense will be the wild card for the Jaguars, as they have just three interceptions through eight games, tied for the fewest. The rush defense has been a bright spot, giving up the fewest yards per carry in the league. It is a shame that we do not get to see how the rookie Dante Fowler would help out this defense, but that will have to wait until next year.

The Titans have been a Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde team in 2015. If you look at their first and last games, rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota has led the team to two statement road wins with 8 touchdowns and no interceptions. If you look at the six in the middle, you see six losses and Mariota missing two games due to injury. Ken Whisenhunt is out of town after a 3-20 career with the Titans and the team believes in interim coach Mike Mularkey and Marcus Mariota. IF he can stay healthy and protected, this team can compete. Speaking of health, injuries to Kendall Wright and Harry Douglas have forced an expedited maturation of Dorial Green-Beckham. At the beginning of the year, he could not stay on the field due to issues with blocking, seeing just 155 snaps entering Week 9. In New Orleans, he saw 48 snaps and pleased his new coach with his effort on the field en route to his best game as a professional.

The debut of David Cobb should aid a struggling running game that has seen the first running back selected in 2014’s draft, Bishop Sankey, benched in favor of Antonio Andrews, an undrafted bruiser out of WKU. The Titans defense has played well enough to complement a playoff caliber offense. You hate to put too much pressure on a rookie, but if Mariota reaches and surpasses the levels he has shown he is capable of, this team can beat the rest of the AFC South.

These two teams have a very important next four weeks, with two matchups against each other likely determining which one of these teams will be able to make a push towards the postseason. The Titans have the tougher schedule as they have the undefeated Panthers at home this week and December trips to the Jets and the Patriots. I believe that one of these teams will have put themselves in a favorable position after week 12 with their key week 13 matchup looming. The playoff aspirations of both of these teams depend upon who can capitalize on weak opposition, much of it coming from within the AFC South.

How It Could Happen: The story is similar for both teams as they each need the Texans and Colts to continue their losing ways. Whoever wants to knock the Colts off of their AFC South pedestal will have to beat Indianapolis down the stretch. The goal for each team should be a record of 7-9 and 8-8 and hope that the AFC South remains historically bad.

Bottom Line: There is a reason no 2-6 team has made the playoffs. While these two teams have the best chance to do so, it will still be a long shot. The picture will be much clearer after their Week 11 matchup, and I have the winner of that game finishing at 6-10. But if there is one thing we know about the NFL, anything can happen on any given week. If there were a time for a 2-6 team to make a run, look no further than 2015 in the AFC South. It is sure to be a roller coaster of mediocrity, and I cannot wait.

[1] Since 1990, when the playoffs were expanded from 10 teams to 12 teams. In 1970, the Cincinnati Bengals started 2-6, finished 8-6 and made the playoffs.

[2] After blowing another late lead on Monday night, San Diego joined Cleveland as two win teams who haven’t yet had their bye week. At 2-7, neither of these teams will be making history.