The early signing period for South Carolina for the Class of 2019 is complete. The Gamecocks have 18 prospects signed and junior college defensive tackle Jhakeem Green committed for a total of 19. Currently, Carolina’s class ranks No. 22 nationally and No. 10 in the Southeastern Conference per 247Sports team rankings, which are based exclusively on 247Sports Composite rankings and ratings.



This has caused quite a large amount of hot takery from fans on social media and some in the media that somehow this isn’t good enough and is a failure. I spent a decade covering college football recruiting on a national level and have tracked this stuff for years. I can tell you that those hot takes are just not accurate. There are four key points as to why.

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The first thing to keep in mind is that the early signing period is what it says, it’s early. Granted, approximately 80 percent of most prospects have elected to ink early since the new calendar was implemented last cycle. So, the team rankings right now are a snapshot at the moment of how the recruiting media industry as a whole evaluates the class. It’s based on an algorithm that is designed to produce the most fair and least subjective team recruiting rankings at the end of a given cycle. We are not at the end of this cycle yet, so while the rankings can give you a good look at where your favorite team stands, it’s not very likely that they end up there.



There are two major moments forthcoming that directly impact the team recruiting rankings. The first will be final prospect rankings from around the industry. There is senior film to evaluate, a treasure trove of feedback to obtain and then an all-important evaluation time for the nation’s top prospects at both the Under Armour All-American Game in Orlando and the All-American Game in San Antonio. There is a week of practice and then a game where the best of the best will match up. Prospect rankings at times change relatively dramatically after these events, depending on the prospect and how they look.



South Carolina will have its top three prospects in the two games. Five-star defensive lineman Zacch Pickens will be in Orlando while four-star quarterback Ryan Hilinski and four-star defensive back Cameron Smith will be in San Antonio. All three of these prospects are ranked relatively high nationally, especially Pickens and Hilinski, but they could still move up.



Just this week, 247Sports National Recruiting Analyst Barton Simmons made the statement that in his opinion Smith is a borderline five star prospect nationally. Multiple analysts laid eyes on him during the practices for the Shrine Bowl of the Carolinas where he impressed. Chances are he’s moving up with a good showing in San Antonio and way up with a great one. Pickens did not attend The Opening this summer (another evaluation opportunity for elite prospects) because he was in summer school. In Orlando, he will get the chance to shine just like he did during his senior season of high school football where he was a dominant player. Heading into all of these all-star events, there are plenty of eyes on the quarterbacks, so Hilinski will have a chance to move up as well. All of these potential moves will impact South Carolina’s team ranking.



On top of that, there’s also a better-than-average chance that Green, who currently is rated as a mid to high three-star junior college prospect, moves up. When you watch the Sumter native on film, he’s an absolute no-brainer. Multiple coaching staffs offered and wanted him after he committed to the Gamecocks and the South Carolina staff thinks he can be a first-day impact defensive lineman. Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and others threw him an offer and recruited him after his early pledge to his home-state school. This could also impact the Gamecocks’ team ranking.



Beyond that, offensive lineman Jakai Moore is a four-star prospect from two of the three major recruiting networks. If the third comes around, he moves up from his high three-star composite rating. You could also make a strong case for Traevon Kenion being re-evaluated as a tight end based on senior film and he could find his way back to four-star status. Others could make a case as well and all of those could impact South Carolina’s team ranking.



The second major point here is about additions and totality of the class. The Gamecocks still have spots open in this class and are going to sign more than what they have now. You never know who is going to become a target. You never know which targets will move up and down in the rankings. Both of these things will factor in to where South Carolina finishes nationally and within the SEC. One prospect to keep an eye on who could positively impact the rank is four-star defensive lineman Jaquaze Sorrells (Orlando, Fla./Winter Park via Largo, Fla.), who could ink with the Gamecocks in February.



In a more abstract evaluation of the class that won’t factor into the team rankings, the Gamecocks landed two high-level transfers this offseason. Jamel Cook had a 247Sports Composite rating of 0.9538, was the second-ranked athlete nationally and the No. 99 overall prospect nationally in the Class of 2016 out of Miami Central High before signing with Southern California. Josh Belk had a 247Sports Composite rating of 0.9529, was the No. 7 defensive tackle and the No. 102 overall prospect in the Class of 2018 before signing with Clemson. Neither are going to count in the team rankings (no transfers count), but they both count toward the maximum the Gamecocks can sign in this class. That means that those spots cannot be filled with other prospects that do count. Thus that does impact the team rankings. If you were to plug in the No. 99 and No. 102 prospects from the 2019 cycle into Carolina’s class, the class would currently be ranked No. 14 nationally and No. 6 in the SEC prior to any individual rankings adjustments being made.



The third major point is that when you really drill into the class, there’s a lot to like regardless of where it is ranked. South Carolina signed all four in-state prospects that it offered, including Pickens and Smith who are elite. The Gamecocks landed one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Hilinski. The future on the defensive line is finally looking brighter after several years of being down (something that is paramount when you play the teams Carolina plays every year). In addition to Pickens and Green at that spot, the Gamecocks added four-star Joseph Anderson out of Murfreesboro, Tenn., a pass-rushing BUCK in Rodricus Fitten out of Atlanta and a high-upside junior college defensive end in Devontae Davis (Georgia Military College, originally from Aiken) who is already 6-foot-5, 280 pounds and is participating in bowl practice. There’s also Sorrells. Cornerback John Dixon (Tampa, Fla./Chamberlain) was considered an elite talent on the camp circuit before an injury derailed his final year of high school football. And then, even though they all are rated three stars, consider the plus athleticism of the offensive line class, which features Jaylen Nichols, Mark Fox and Vincent Murphy (and possibly one more) in addition to Moore.



The fourth and final point here is about the nature of team recruiting rankings. If you are looking at standings or power rankings about teams during the season, the difference between No. 13 and No. 22 typically is stark. Likewise within the SEC, No. 10 seems miles away from No. 6 when you are ranking teams. There’s obviously a big difference there. But when it comes to ranking recruiting classes based on a formula, the difference is much, much slimmer. If I were just ranking classes this cycle subjectively, I would definitely have Alabama No. 1. Georgia’s class would have to be No. 2 and in all honesty I would have Oregon No. 3. While there is a difference between say Texas A&M’s class at No. 4 and N.C. State’s class at No. 26, it is not as wide of a gap as if we were ranking teams. There is literally no difference (maybe a player here or there) from Tennessee at No. 16 within the SEC down to Ole Miss at No. 23. Gun to my head would I rank the Vols or Gators slightly higher than the Gamecocks class as a whole? Yes but not by much. The incoming talent level is essentially the same. So when you hear talking heads or writers that don’t cover recruiting focus on being No. 10, you have to understand that fractions of points coming from player evaluations from throughout the recruiting media industry are what’s determining the order. It certainly would look better as far as the optics go to not rank at that spot, but it’s essentially in the same range. That’s the key is being in the same range and then it becomes about development and coaching on gameday. I mentioned Kenion earlier as a prospect that could move up in the rankings. He has a 247Sports Composite rating of 0.8851 (high three star). Compare him to Florida signee Keon Zipperer (Lakeland, Fla.) who is the highest-rated prospect right now in the Gators class with an 0.9410. They are really the same player. Skipper had a bigger offer list and plays at one of the top high school programs in Florida and his recruitment came down to Wednesday. Kenion was originally projected as a wide receiver, moved from Charlotte to above the research triangle (Wake Forest) and committed to South Carolina during the summer. Same prospect. Different set of accolades and different offer list. That’s not to say Zipperer won’t end up being better than Kenion. He could or could not. But that’s an example of how prospect rankings are splitting hairs. I know. I have done it.



The number of players in a class does matter with the team rankings formula, but the formula is designed to not weigh it as much as other formulas that calculate this sort of thing. The Gamecocks have only 19 counting right now and will add four more. Tennessee (No. 16) and Florida (No. 17) have 21, Mississippi State (No. 19) has 22, Arkansas (No. 20) has 27 and Ole Miss (No. 23 right behind Carolina) has 28.



The key to successful recruiting in college football when you are building, which South Carolina is, is to hit your numbers, make strong evaluations and maximize your opportunities to add talent to your roster. After all, good recruiting facilitates winning. When you look at the team rankings in recent history, it does not always equate to winning. For example, did you know that Florida State since the 2014 cycle (after the Noles won the final BCS National Championship) has finished ahead of Clemson in the team recruiting rankings every recruiting cycle except one, which was 2018? The Tigers have been to four straight playoffs, won four straight Atlantic Coast Conference championships and beat the brakes off of the Seminoles, 59-10, this season in Tallahassee. Florida State finished 5-7 and missed a bowl for the first time since before I was born. Tennessee in two of four cycles in recent years also finished ahead of the Tigers in the team recruiting rankings and averaged higher-ranked classes than Clemson for the totality of four cycles (2014-17). The Vols have had only four winning seasons in the past 11 and are 2-14 in the SEC the last two seasons. Now, it’s my opinion that they are heading in the right direction under Jeremy Pruitt and I am high on their class this cycle. This isn’t to knock them, it’s just to point out that it’s not universal that the team recruiting rankings are an exact predictor of success. The third example here reinforces the other aspects of achieving excellence on the field. There haven’t been very many experts that have criticized the recruiting on the defensive side of the ball at Ohio State (or really anywhere) during the soon-to-be-over Urban Meyer era. How then did that unit give up 100 points combined to Maryland and Purdue this season? Yes, they lost Nick Bosa, but their injury list wasn’t even close to, oh I don’t know, South Carolina’s on defense. Yes, teams that sign elite recruiting classes year after year typically are the best teams in college football. No, the order of the team recruiting rankings rarely represents the order of finish or a program’s place within a conference or the country and no, this is not XBox where you plug in a bunch of recruits rated 99 (back when the NCAA allowed that game) and you start rolling.



So given all of this, there is no need for angst and consternation right now when it comes to where South Carolina’s 2019 recruiting class is currently ranked. It’s not a sign of failure and not a sign of a lack of progress in terms of the current build that is underway. This class will make a big impact, just like the 2018 class appears set to do. Muschamp and staff did a great job scraping together 2016 and 2017 and that, along with the players left over from the previous era that bought in, has kept the program’s head above water after a low point in 2015 (3-9, lost to The Citadel at home). The last two classes are the types of classes that can take it up a notch and then it just becomes about perpetually upgrading cycle after cycle, making those types of evaluations and ultimately landing your share. Does South Carolina still have holes in its roster? Are there some positions that could use an elite difference-maker or two that you don't see in this class. Yes, but that gets solved cycle after cycle over time. That is the case for the majority of programs throughout college football. It's never about one class. In fact, it can often be more about one player (go look at the Gamecocks 2010 recruiting class and where it ranked and who was in it for a prime example) than one class in terms of program impact.

So given all of this, things continue to trend in the right direction despite the surface-level glance at the team rank and subsequent hot takes based on it.