In his heart of hearts, he doesn’t give a damn about rolling back abortion rights. Any sane analysis of his background and sober read of his character leads to that conclusion. Yet this man of all men — a misogynist, a philanderer, a grabber-by-the-you-know-what — may be the end of Roe v. Wade. Time to spring into action, Ivanka! I type that in jest, knowing that my keystrokes are in vain.

So many of Trump’s positions, not just on abortion but also on a whole lot else, were embraced late in the game, as matters of political convenience. They were his clearest path to power. Then they were his crudest way to flex it.

Now they’re his crassest way to hold on to it. He will almost certainly move to replace Kennedy with a deeply, unswervingly conservative jurist not because that’s consistent with his own core (what core?) but because it’s catnip to the elements of his base that got him this far and could carry him farther.

Never mind how much it exacerbates this country’s already crippling political polarization. Never mind how much fear it sows in many women, in many people of color and in many L.G.B.T. Americans, all of whom could see rights that they fought so long and hard for snatched away. Never mind that this is a moment, if ever there was one, to set a bipartisan example and apply a healing touch.

Trump will gladly cleave the country in two before he’ll dim the applause of his most ardent acolytes. What puffs him up takes precedence over what drags us down.