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IUP WATCH 09 July 2010

Released on 2012-10-19 08:00 GMT

Email-ID 822591 Date 1970-01-01 01:00:00 From animesh.roul@stratfor.com To reva.bhalla@stratfor.com, os@stratfor.com, mesa@stratfor.com

IUP WATCH 09 July 2010





IUP WATCH

INDIA/US/PAKISTAN

09 July 2010



HEADLINES:



=E2=80=A2 Pak would welcome NATO's pull out from Afghanistan: FO=20=20

http://sify.com/news/pak-would-welcome-nato-s-pull-out-from-afghanistan-fo-=

news-international-khjpEiihbih.html



=E2=80=A2 BJP questions Govt on outcome of talks with Pak

http://www.zeenews.com/news639747.html



=E2=80=A2 Massive Indian purchase of US equipment likely to cause unease in=

region: Report=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

http://www.app.com.pk/en_/index.php?option=3Dcom_content&task=3Dview&id=3D1=

08730&Itemid=3D2



=E2=80=A2 Firing from Pakistan worries Indians residing along border=20

http://sify.com/news/firing-from-pakistan-worries-indians-residing-along-bo=

rder-news-national-khjmuedcdgj.html



=E2=80=A2 Obama looks to strike a personal chord in India

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/Obama-looks-to-str=

ike-a-personal-chord-in-India/articleshow/6145329.cms



=E2=80=A2 US has violated int'l laws by shifting Aafia: Malik

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Polit=

ics/09-Jul-2010/US-has-violated-intl-laws-by-shifting-Aafia-Malik



=E2=80=A2 PAK-US agree to form border working group=20=20

http://www.samaa.tv/News22474-PAKUS_agree_to_form_border_working_group.aspx=

=20



OP/ED

=E2=80=A2 US exit means Taliban=E2=80=99s entry=20

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper=

/columnists/kuldip-nayar-us-exit-means-talibans-entry-970



FULL TEXT

Pak would welcome NATO's pull out from Afghanistan: FO=20=20

2010-07-09 15:40:00=20=20

http://sify.com/news/pak-would-welcome-nato-s-pull-out-from-afghanistan-fo-=

news-international-khjpEiihbih.html



Pakistan would welcome the NATO forces' decision to withdraw troops from wa=

r tattered Afghanistan, Foreign Office (FO) spokesman Abdul Basit has said.



Interacting with media persons during a regular briefing here, Basit said P=

akistan has suffered a lot due to the ongoing 'war on terror' in Afghanista=

n, and that it was for the US and the allied nations to decide the time for=

the pull out.



"It is for the US and other coalition troops to decide as to when they will=

leave Afghanistan," The Daily Times quoted Basit, as saying.



Basit also raised the issue of recent violence in Jammu and Kashmir, and ad=

ded that Islamabad would continue to lend all support to the people of the =

region for their struggle.



"We reiterate our solidarity with the people of Jammu and Kashmir and will =

continue extending full diplomatic and moral support to their legitimate ca=

use and struggle for self-determination," he said. (ANI)



=20

BJP questions Govt on outcome of talks with Pak

Updated on Friday, July 09, 2010, 15:20 IST=20

http://www.zeenews.com/news639747.html

New Delhi: With evidence emerging that people from across the border were f=

omenting trouble in Kashmir, BJP on Friday demanded an explanation from the=

government on the outcome of the recent high level talks between Home Mini=

ster P Chidambaram and his Pakistani counterpart.=20



"After Home Minister P Chidambaram and the foreign secretary held high leve=

l talks with their counterparts in Islamabad, it was said that Pakistan has=

assured that it will not support terrorists against India," BJP chief spok=

esperson Ravi Shankar Prasad told reporters here.=20



=20=20

"But what is happening in Jammu and Kashmir is contrary to that. We want th=

e Government of India to explain the outcome of the talks," he said.=20



Chidambaram held talks with his Pakistani counterpart Rehman Malik on the s=

idelines of the SAARC Home Ministers' conference in Islamabad late last mon=

th.=20



=20

Prasad said the transcripts of the conversations between the terrorists in =

Pakistan and their "menials in Jammu and Kashmir" are evidence enough to sh=

ow that people from across the border are fomenting trouble in the state.=

=20



"They are openly issuing directions and giving money to create problems in =

the state... the situation is getting critical by the day," the BJP leader =

said.=20



Accusing Chief Minister Omar Abdullah of failing to deal with the situation=

, he said, "The Chief Minister should learn to rule and take everyone along=

...flamboyance always does not pay."=20



He said the BJP had been warning Prime Minister Manmohan Singh against taki=

ng hurried decisions in holding talks with Pakistan. "When Atal Bihari Vajp=

ayee was the Prime Minister, there were talks but situation was dealt with =

a firm action...the situation in Jammu and Kashmir had improved," he added.=

=20



Yesterday, senior BJP leader LK Advani had described the situation in the s=

tate as "worrisome".=20



Massive Indian purchase of US equipment likely to cause unease in region: R=

eport=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

http://www.app.com.pk/en_/index.php?option=3Dcom_content&task=3Dview&id=3D1=

08730&Itemid=3D2



NEW YORK, July 8 (APP): As India seeks to add latest U.S. defence equipmen=

t to bolster its industry and armed forces, Washington=E2=80=99s commitment=

is likely to draw serious objections from Pakistan, an American newspaper,=

citing current and future prospective deals, reported.The Obama administra=

tion has sought to assure Pakistan, as well as China, that its burgeoning d=

efence ties with India do not pose a threat. But analysts say that despite =

such assurances, major defense deals with either of the nuclear-armed rival=

s are bound to create unease, The conservative Washington Times reported.=

=20



According to the paper, the U.S. has sold C-130J =E2=80=9CSuper=E2=80=9D He=

rcules transport planes and P-8I anti-submarine warfare and long-range patr=

ol aircraft to India as part of the growing defense trade between the two c=

ountries, the newspaper reported.=20=20

The U.S. also wants to sell C-17 military transport planes to its Asian all=

y.=20

Two U.S. companies, Boeing Co. and Lockheed Martin Corp., are among the lea=

ding competitors for a $10 billion sale of 126 advanced fighter aircraft to=

the Indian air force. This is currently the world=E2=80=99s biggest defens=

e tender.=20

While Boeing wants to sell the F-18 Super Hornet to India, Lockheed Martin =

is offering the F-16IN Super Viper.=20

Johnny Whitaker, director of international communications at Lockheed Marti=

n Aeronautics Co., said the F-16IN has been =E2=80=9Cspecifically designed =

to meet or exceed Indian air force requirements and will be the most advanc=

ed version of the F-16 ever produced.=E2=80=9D=20

The latest advancements in weapons, sensors and mission capabilities have b=

een added to the fighter jet.=20

=E2=80=9CLockheed Martin and our F-16 suppliers will transfer the knowledge=

to Indian industry to allow them to indigenously produce and support the a=

ircraft,=E2=80=9D Whitaker said.=20

On Tuesday, India rolled out its first naval variant of the indigenously pr=

oduced light combat aircraft (LCA), providing a boost to its efforts to man=

ufacture a fleet of fighter jets for its aircraft carriers.=20

Historically, India and Pakistan have viewed each other=E2=80=99s defense p=

urchases with suspicion. The two neighbours have fought three wars since in=

dependence from Britain in 1947.=20

Teresita Schaffer, director of the South Asia program at the Center for Str=

ategic and International Studies, said, =E2=80=9CPakistan will have its eye=

on Indias military purchases=E2=80=9D this time as well.=20

But if the U.S. didn=E2=80=99t sell this equipment, India would buy it from=

some other country, she said. =E2=80=9CSo for the U.S. to withhold sales w=

ould certainly not stop an effort by Pakistan to balance these purchases. S=

o the key decision is Indias decision to buy, not the U.S. decision to sell=

,=E2=80=9D she said.=20

Ayesha Siddiqa, a Pakistani defence analyst with the Johns Hopkins Universi=

ty=E2=80=99s School of Advanced International Studies, said the sale of adv=

anced technology to India will =E2=80=9Cperturb Pakistan beyond imagination=

.=E2=80=9D=20

=E2=80=9CSuch deals will be seen as excessively strengthening India, have a=

major impact on the future of Pakistan=E2=80=9D and could exacerbate an ar=

ms race between India and Pakistan, she said.=20

Pakistan has received defence equipment from the United States since 2001 t=

o prosecute the fight against terrorism and is buying F-16 fighter planes t=

o add to its air force capabilities.=20

A Congressional researcher Alan Krondstadt says =E2=80=9Cin comparison with=

Pakistan, defence cooperation between the United States and India is still=

in the relatively early stages of development,=E2=80=9D Krondstadt said.=

=20

=E2=80=9CYet we have seen rapid and unprecedented progress in this realm, a=

nd defense trade is emerging as a central aspect of the U.S.-India partners=

hip in the new century.=E2=80=9D=20

In its effort to modernize its armed forces, India has been wooing U.S. com=

panies to invest in its defense sector. The inclusion of some Indian firms =

on a U.S. Entity List has, however, been a bone of contention in the U.S.-I=

ndia relationship.=20

On a visit to Washington in June, Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Ana=

nd Sharma sought the removal of organizations such as the Indian Space and =

Research Organization (ISRO) and Defense Research and Development Organizat=

ion (DRDO) from the list.=20

ISRO and DRDO were put on this technology export control blacklist followin=

g India=E2=80=99s nuclear test in 1998.=20=20



Firing from Pakistan worries Indians residing along border=20

=20

2010-07-09 12:20:00=20=20

=20

http://sify.com/news/firing-from-pakistan-worries-indians-residing-along-bo=

rder-news-national-khjmuedcdgj.html

Fear of unexpected firing has returned among farmers living near the Indo-P=

akistan border in Jammu following the recent ceasefire violation by Pakista=

n.=20



Farmers lamented that other than cultivation, they have no other source of =

income and some solution had to be found to solve their plight.



"Yes, fear is there and we are terrorized; but we have no other option but =

to work in our fields in order to earn our livelihood. That is why we are h=

ere despite the fear of firing from them (Pakistan Rangers)," said Ajay Kum=

ar, a farmer.



They also claimed that there is no help from the government and it should t=

ake appropriate measures for the security of the people.



"It is time for plantation and we do not have water and we cannot go out be=

cause the firing is on. The entire village is in fear because some of our a=

nimals have died during firing. We request the government to take some step=

s," said Sushil Kumar, another farmer.



Recently, there had been series of ceasefire violations from the Pakistan s=

ide. constable of the Border Security Force (BSF), was killed due to firing=

from across the Pakistan border near Phagwari Border Outpost on Tuesday.



On June 21, the Pakistani troops fired indiscriminately at an Indian forwar=

d border outpost in the RS Pura Sector of Jammu and Kashmir violating the c=

easefire.



Indian intelligence officials say that Pakistan-based militant groups have =

accelerated efforts to infiltrate the region across the Line of Control aft=

er the snow started melting on the high Himalayan Mountain passes, which in=

turn have given rise to apprehensions of fresh violence. (ANI)



Obama looks to strike a personal chord in India

9 Jul 2010, 0409 hrs IST,Ishani Duttagupta,ET Bureau

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/Obama-looks-to-str=

ike-a-personal-chord-in-India/articleshow/6145329.cms

NEW DELHI: US President Barack Obama will delve into a stack of issues span=

ning politics, education, energy and business during his upcoming visit=20

to India in November with family, says a high-ranking American lawmaker who=

heads a caucus to promote ties between the two nations.=20



Senator Christopher Dodd, chairman of the influential US Senate committee o=

n banking, housing, and urban affairs and co-chair of the Senate India Cauc=

us, says Mr Obama is =E2=80=9Cvery excited=E2=80=9D about the visit, which =

is =E2=80=9Cof deep personal value=E2=80=9D.=20



=E2=80=9CThe energy issue and sustainable growth are likely to feature very=

prominently in talks between the president and Prime Minister Manmohan Sin=

gh,=E2=80=9D he told ET. Senator Dodd=E2=80=99s ongoing visit India is a pr=

ecursor to presidential trip. He met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in this =

connection on Wednesday.=20



Mr Obama=E2=80=99s visit is expected to give a fillip to ties, which despit=

e a seminal civil nuclear accord, is needled by the poor progress in liftin=

g curbs on hi-tech exports to India and Washington=E2=80=99s growing impati=

ence with New Delhi=E2=80=99s reluctance to become party to international a=

rrangements that commit countries to control export of sensitive equipment =

and technologies.=20



In the run-up to the presidential visit, the US administration is discussin=

g the achievements of the Indian diaspora.=20



Mr Obama=E2=80=99s administration has a large number of Indian-Americans in=

prominent roles such as Arun Majumdar, director of advanced research proje=

cts agency in the US department of energy; Vivek Kundra, federal chief info=

rmation officer, Aneesh Chopra, chief technology officer and Ro Khanna, dep=

uty assistant secretary for domestic operations of the US and foreign comme=

rcial service, international trade administration.=20



=E2=80=9CSome of the Indian-Americans, who hold key posts in the administra=

tion, are already advising the president on his India visit. We also recogn=

ise the fact that the largest number of foreign students in the US campuses=

come from India,=E2=80=9D said Senator Dodd. He is likely to accompany Mr =

Obama during his visit.=20



The senator sees the Troubled Assets Relief Program that had restricted fin=

ancial institutions from sponsoring H-1B workers, made up of a large number=

of Indians, ending once a new regulation is in place. He was referring to =

landmark bill in the US that will radically overhaul the financial sector.=

=20



=E2=80=9CPresident Obama is also committed to huge immigration reforms, but=

those might happen only next year,=E2=80=9D said the senator, known to hav=

e played a pivotal role in pushing the bill.=20



Indian-Americans and New Delhi watchers in the US say Mr Obama=E2=80=99s vi=

sit will focus on strategic issues such as the planned US pullout of Afghan=

istan and the road ahead for India.=20



=E2=80=9CBesides Afghanistan, president Obama=E2=80=99s visit will also pro=

vide an opportunity to the Indian administration to understand the US stand=

on the issue of India=E2=80=99s membership in the UN Security Council and =

the buildup of nuclear capability in Pakistan,=E2=80=9D said Sanjay Puri, c=

hairman, US India Political Action Committee.=20=20



US has violated int'l laws by shifting Aafia: Malik

By: Kashif Abbasi | Published: July 09, 2010=20

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Polit=

ics/09-Jul-2010/US-has-violated-intl-laws-by-shifting-Aafia-Malik



ISLAMABAD =E2=80=93 Terming the shifting of Dr Aafia Siddiqui from Afghanis=

tan to the USA negation of the international laws, Federal Interior Ministe=

r Rehman Malik has said that Islamabad would use political ways to bring Aa=

fia back to the country.

Talking to media representatives here on Thursday after attending meeting h=

eld in connection with the Pak-USA Strategic Dialogue, Malik said that duri=

ng the meeting Pakistan=E2=80=99s delegation informed the US delegation tha=

t Dr Aafia=E2=80=99s shifting from Afghanistan to America was a violation o=

f the international laws.=20

He said that Pakistan had decided to fight politically for Aafia=E2=80=99s =

repatriation.

=E2=80=9CThe matter of Dr Aafia was discussed and we have decided to use ev=

ery possible channel to bring her back=E2=80=9D, he added. He said that Pak=

istan wanted close relations with the USA in war against terrorism for the =

sake of regional security and peace.

To a query, he said that during the meeting Pakistan conveyed its concerns =

regarding Brahamdagh Bugti, who is leading insurgency in Balochistan provin=

ce from Afghanistan=E2=80=99s capital.=20

=E2=80=9CPakistan cannot curb menace of terrorism without the help of US,=

=E2=80=9D he opined.=20

While responding to a question regarding American=E2=80=99s allegations lev=

elled against Pakistan premier intelligence agency over its alleged links w=

ith the militants, he said that Pakistan premier agency played a significan=

t role in ongoing war on terror, therefore, such allegations were baseless.

He categorically rejected the false propaganda, being made by Americans, as=

some US-based reports alleged that Osama Bin Laden and his lieutenant Mull=

ah Mohammad were present in Pakistan. Malik said that the US should not lev=

el such allegations and if it has any evidence then it should be presented =

before the Pakistan.



PAK-US agree to form border working group=20=20

Upadated on: 08 Jul 10 11:00 PM=20=20

=20=20

http://www.samaa.tv/News22474-PAKUS_agree_to_form_border_working_group.aspx=

=20

Staff Report



ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and USA have agreed to form a combined working group fo=

r Pak-Afghan western border, SAMAA reportd Thursday.=20



According to details a combined US-Pak meeting for strategic dialogues, hea=

ded by the Federal Interior Minister Rehman Malik, was held in Islamabad to=

day( Thursday).=20



From US, the coordinator for anti terrorism and the officials of the intell=

igence agencies took part in the meeting while Federal Interior secretary a=

long with other officials participated from Pakistan.



During meeting, Pak officials presented Pakistan=E2=80=99s demands to the U=

S officials that they shall provide modern equipments and training to the s=

ecurity forces along with some further cooperation to Anti Narcotics Police=

and Customs departments.



The US delegation, replying to the demands of Pakistan, gave their assuranc=

e for providing further cooperation and modern training to the security for=

ces. SAMAA=20



OP/ED

US exit means Taliban=E2=80=99s entry=20

By Kuldip Nayar=20

Friday, 09 Jul, 2010=20=20=20=20=20

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper=

/columnists/kuldip-nayar-us-exit-means-talibans-entry-970



Before the Soviet forces entered Afghanistan in 1979, I used to visit Kabu=

l regularly. I found President Mohammad Daud a fatherly figure who had no i=

dea of what was happening in his country.=20

Even otherwise, he was dependent on warlords, a pattern which has not chang=

ed since. But he was not aware of the strong base that the communists had d=

eveloped in the country.=20



This was a period of innocence. That Daud was pro-India was significant bec=

ause New Delhi wanted to keep out Islamabad which stressed Afghanistan as p=

art of its =E2=80=98strategic depth=E2=80=99 vision. For that reason, Pakis=

tan denied India the use of road for transit goods to Kabul.=20



Later, President Hafizullah Amin, a communist, was in power for a short whi=

le. But Amin did not want Afghanistan to be a Soviet satellite. He was anti=

-Pakistan. Atal Behari Vajpayee told me that when he met President Amin, th=

e latter suggested to him that the Indian forces should march into Pakistan=

from the east and the Afghanistan forces from the west.=20



Babrak Karmal came to Afghanistan riding the Soviet tank. President Amin wa=

s killed. New Delhi should have condemned the aggression, but stayed neutra=

l because of its close relations with the Soviet Union. It was the biggest =

disgrace of India=E2=80=99s foreign policy.=20



Moscow=E2=80=99s fears that it would be sucked into a war defending Babrak =

Karmal=E2=80=99s government came true. Little did it realise that America w=

as looking for an opportunity to bleed the Soviet Union to death. In fact, =

the happenings in Afghanistan at that time gave a fatal blow to Moscow and =

gave victory to America in the Cold War.=20



Washington constituted a force of fundamentalists =E2=80=94 the Mujahideen =

=E2=80=94 with Pakistan in the front. They wanted Kalashnikovs and unlimite=

d dollars to fight the =E2=80=98infidels=E2=80=99 of the Soviet Union. This=

was the opportunity which Gen Ziaul Haq exploited not only to get maximum =

money and weapons for Pakistan but also to spread fundamentalism in his own=

country.=20



The US and the Mujahideen inflicted so many casualties on the Soviet Union =

that Moscow had no option but to pull out. But, after defeating the Soviet =

Union, the worst that Washington did was to quit immediately and drop every=

thing, leaving behind weapons and the fighters it had trained. The world is=

today paying for the sins that America committed at that time.=20



Now it is committing a similar blunder of projecting its withdrawal without=

bothering about what would happen to Afghanistan and the region. Raised fr=

om the ranks of the Mujahideen, the Taliban became a menace and went on to =

foist their rule on Afghanistan. They had all the weapons that America left=

behind.=20



When America found Afghanistan as the epicentre of terrorism after the 9/11=

attack on New York and went after the Taliban, it looked like it was recti=

fying the mistake it made earlier. Pakistan was a reluctant partner. But af=

ter having suffered the Taliban=E2=80=99s terrorism inside its own territor=

y, for example in Swat, Islamabad has come on board to a large extent. But =

it still alleged to have contacts with the =E2=80=98good Taliban=E2=80=99.=

=20



Terrorism today has spilled over Pakistan=E2=80=99s borders. Lashkar-i-Taib=

a has carried out attacks even on Indian soil. The attack on Mumbai on 26/1=

1 was the Lashkar=E2=80=99s doing.=20



For obvious reasons, America has become crucial to the area, not only becau=

se of the troops it has deployed but also because of the coalition of resis=

tance it has put together. Washington=E2=80=99s focus is on the region itse=

lf.=20



Yet President Obama=E2=80=99s declaration that the US forces would begin wi=

thdrawing from next summer is tantamount to weakening =E2=80=9Cthe wholehea=

rted fight=E2=80=9D against the Taliban. How can one fight without reservat=

ion when you declare beforehand your decision to quit? The last time when A=

merica did so, it gave birth to the Taliban government, the flagship of rel=

igious fundamentalism. This time the scenario could be worse because then t=

he Taliban had not tasted power which they did after America=E2=80=99s with=

drawal. At present, they are lying low and awaiting the departure of the Am=

erican forces. The Afghanistan government is not viable. Nor has its milita=

ry developed enough teeth to thwart the Taliban. What was needed was not th=

e change in command =E2=80=94 from Gen McChrystal to Gen Petraeus =E2=80=94=

but a change in American policy that is looking to withdraw its forces.=20



True, Islamabad has been able to keep New Delhi out. The latter has not tak=

en up any new economic project. Pakistan has been able to convince America =

which needs Islamabad=E2=80=99s support the most that Pakistan cannot fight=

with all its troops because it has to keep a large number of them on the e=

astern border with India. Indeed, America has changed the scenario in favou=

r of Pakistan. President Hamid Karzai who was literally abusing Pakistan ti=

ll a few months ago reportedly met the Pakistani army chief to show intimac=

y between Islamabad and Kabul.=20



The basic question remains unanswered: how to eliminate the Taliban who hav=

e made Afghanistan and parts of Pakistan their playground. They have killed=

hundreds of Pakistanis. There is no alternative to the Taliban=E2=80=99s e=

limination. And here India can be of great help. Both countries have to evo=

lve a joint strategy to fight the Taliban who are threatening the entire So=

uth Asian region. It may appear as wishful thinking.=20



If the intelligence chiefs of India and Pakistan meet to discuss how the ag=

encies can fight against terrorism effectively, some type of joint mechanis=

m against the Taliban may become feasible. If nothing else, the two countri=

es have to think of ways to fill the vacuum which the withdrawal of the Ame=

rican troops would create. If the Taliban are allowed to step in, it would =

affect the peace and stability of the entire South Asian region.



The writer is a senior journalist based in Delhi.









