But here are some potential slow-motion game-changers that worry the White House now:

1. Asia Erupts

The killing of bin Laden, rapturous in the moment, actively destabilizes South Asia and forces the president to break his promise about withdrawing the majority of American troops from Afghanistan by 2014. The conventional wisdom says the opposite will happen--that Obama will be able to accelerate the withdrawal. He might, at first. But even absent the alarmism from some quarters, it's hard to argue that the region, right now, is more stable than it was a month ago. Obama wants to claim to Americans that he is winding down the two majors war of the Bush era, and that in doing so, he is restoring to America a sense of balance of equilibrium. India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan need to cooperate in order for that to be so.

2. Personal Income Slumps

There are hopeful signs for the economy in terms of job growth but plenty of grim ones, too, and that worries Obama's allies. Personal income growth could stall. In March of 2011, real (that is, inflation adjusted) disposable personal income increased by just 0.1 percent. Ominously, consumer spending declined. There is no single statistic that will be a better proxy for how individuals feel about their economic future. That's one reason why administration economists placed so much faith in the payroll tax stimulus that passed in late 2010. One possibility is that certain groups of people will feel the economic recovery more quickly than others. Right now, those making less than $100,000 in under-performing industries are still feeling the lasting effects of the credit shutdown and mortgage crisis. If they're young and entering the job market, they're not finding solid, professional jobs. Obama can poll well with young professionals but needs them to believe that his economic policies are working before they'll turn out for him in significant numbers.

3. Revenge of the Premiums

Health insurance premiums might rise dramatically in 2012, offsetting the solid political benefits that Democrats are reaping from the unpopularity of the Republican Medicare-reform plan. Many Democrats think Republicans have squeezed all the juice out of bashing Obama's health care reform as they can, but that's based on the assumption that the insurance market responds to the prospect of reform deadlines as the Obama administration expects it to.

4. Turnout Doesn't Turn Out

Successful Republican efforts to undercut labor unions' political power in a number of Midwestern states could reduce the ability of labor to be a force multiplier, which means that fewer potential Democrats will be registered. In Florida, an effort to restrict voter-registration efforts could prove troubling. On the other hand, the GOP assault on public-employee unions might energize that vote.