In the swing states that matter most in the presidential race, Donald Trump doesn’t have a prayer against Hillary Clinton in the general election.

That’s according to top operatives, strategists and activists in 10 battleground states who participated in this week’sa POLITICO Caucus. Nearly 90 percent of them said Clinton would defeat Trump in their home states in a November matchup.


Republicans are only slightly more bullish on Trump’s prospects than Democrats: More than three-quarters of GOP insiders expect Clinton to best the Republican front-runner in a general-election contest in their respective states. Among Democrats, the belief is nearly universal: 99 percent of surveyed said will Clinton will beat Trump.

In three of the biggest swing states — Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida — Republicans were particularly downbeat about the prospect of a Trump-Clinton contest.

“There is positively no way for Trump to win in Pennsylvania,” said a Republican from that state.

“Trump cannot and will not carry Ohio,” a Republican from that state insisted. “He will do well in Appalachia and in the Mahoning Valley, but he will get killed in the rest of the state. The danger for the GOP is losing Rob Portman, which is a very real possibility under this matchup.”

Added a Florida Republican, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely, “Trump is grinding the GOP to a stub. He couldn't find enough xenophobic, angry white Floridians to beat Hillary in Florida if he tried.”

“I not only think [Hillary] will win Florida in November if Trump is the nominee, I think she'll win 30+ states,” said another Florida Republican.

These comments follow two weeks of victories for Trump, who notched a major win in New York before going on to sweep the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday.

Looking ahead to the general election, Republican insiders fretted that if Trump is at the top of the ticket, he will not only lose in a landslide, but will also endanger Republicans on the rest of the ballot.

“NH is potentially a swing state, but Hillary would win in a rout with profound downballot consequences,” wrote one New Hampshire Republican.

Said a Virginia Republican, “Virginia has shifted to be more suburban than rural. While a Trump candidacy will gin up turnout in the Shenandoah Valley and Southwest, Trump will get killed in the suburbs of the urban crescent. Time to focus on Congressional races and 2017.”

Several Democrats said Trump would so motivate Democratic turnout that they envisioned clear-cut pickup opportunities across the ballot.

“In a Trump/Clinton matchup, Hillary will win Florida by no less than 5 points and will help the Democrats pick up a Senate seat, a couple of House districts, and a significant number of state legislative seats,” said one Florida Democrat.

Added a North Carolina Democrat, “Hillary Clinton will put North Carolina back in the blue column. She will also have long coattails in North Carolina, helping Roy Cooper take back the Governor's Mansion and in quite possibly the biggest upset this cycle, help Deborah Ross defeat Senator Richard Burr.”

Plenty of Democrats predicted a landslide victory over Trump in November.

“This will be a near historic blowout, 20 percent at least,” a New Hampshire Democrat said.

“Trump will win some redneck cow counties, but Hillary will crush him in the urban areas of Las Vegas and Reno,” a Nevada Democrat predicted.

“Unless we throw up on ourselves, this is a no-brainer,” a Wisconsin Democrat added.

But, some noted, Clinton faces her own challenges, from high unfavorable ratings to the question of whether Democrats currently supporting Bernie Sanders, her Democratic primary opponent, will turn out for her should she win the nomination, as she looks poised to do.

“I think it has become clear that his message resonates with voters on both sides,” said one Florida Republican who expects Trump to beat Clinton in that state if they both capture their parties’ nominations. “He is less of a politician; Hillary is clearly a politician, all you have to do is watch her nod her head and pick the right expression to use.”

People on both sides of the aisle also said that Trump has demonstrated some ability to appeal to white working-class voters who might not otherwise vote Republican.

“Could be close if Trump starts to act normal,” a Pennsylvania Democrat said.

But the vast majority of Democrats and Republicans alike expect the math to work out in Clinton’s favor.

“Trump’s crossover appeal provides some challenges,” a Colorado Democrat said. “But for every workingclass white male Hillary loses she’ll pick up three suburban Republican women; and neither group may reveal that to pollsters.”

Fiorina move fails to move the dial

Ted Cruz on Wednesday tapped Carly Fiorina to be his running mate, in a move that struck some POLITICO Caucus insiders as desperate and ineffective.

The majority of insiders surveyed in both parties said bringing on Fiorina makes no difference for Cruz in their respective states — 60 percent of Republicans and 73 percent of Democrats said the same.

“Being teased with a “major announcement” that turned out to be a candidate who is not going to win the nomination [choosing] Carly Fiorina as his running mate was like being promised a T-bone steak and being served a giant nothingburger,” an Iowa Republican said. “It smacks of desperation. It is never going to happen. I would have been embarrassed if I had been on the Cruz team and I was told I had to go out and sell that announcement.”

Added another Iowa Republican, “I'm a Carly supporter — but I don't see how this really moves the needle for Cruz. What is his argument? ‘I know I can't win on the first ballot, but vote for me anyway because if it gets to a second ballot then Carly will be my running mate?’ That doesn't work on a GOTV call.. That's not a jab at Carly, it’s just a recognition that the narrative for Cruz is too daunting.”

Still, 27 percent of Republicans surveyed said the move might help Cruz as he struggles to regain momentum ahead of Indiana, which is shaping up to be a must-win contest for the Texas senator.

“She ran a strong N.H. campaign and as a woman brings a lot of appeal to the ticket,” a New Hampshire Republican said.



These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this survey:

Colorado: Adam Eichberg, Alan Salazar, Andrew Freedman, B.J. Nikkel, Craig Hughes, Cole Finegan, Frank McNulty, Karen Middleton, Laura Carno, Matt Chandler, Michael Fortney, Owen Loftus, Pat Waak, Pete Maysmith, Rick Ridder, Rob Witwer, Roxane White, Ryan Call, Steve Welchert, Taylor West, Ted Harvey, Will Coyne

Florida: Alia Faraj-Johnson, Andrea Reilly, Andrew Weinstein, Andrew Wiggins, April Schiff, Ashley Walker, Ben Pollara, Beth Matuga, Brian E. Crowley, Chris Korge, Christian Ulvert, Damien Filer, David Beattie, David Johnson, Dennis Baxley, Elizabeth Cuevas-Nuender, Eric Johnson, Eric Jotkoff, Fernand R. Amandi, Fred Menachem, Gus Corbella, Jacki Lee, Jessica D. Ehrlich, Joe Mobley, John Dowless, Jon Mills, Joseph Falk, Judith Diaz, Justin Day, Kelly Cohen, Kevin Cate, Kevin Sweeny, Marian Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Marty Fiorentino, Max Steele, Nelson Diaz, Nick Iarossi, Pamela Burch Fort, Rich Heffley, Richard R. Swann, Rick Wilson, Roger Stone, Ronald L. Book, Ryan Duffy, Ryan Wiggins, Scott Arceneaux, Slater Bayliss, Steve Schale, Steven Vancore, Susan A. MacManus, Tim Baker, Wayne Bertsch

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

Nevada: Adam Khan, Andres Ramirez, Andrew Diss, Barbara Buckley, Bob Cavazos, Brendan Summers, Chip Evans, Chuck Muth, Dan Hart, Daniel Stewart, Ed Williams, Emmy Ruiz, Erven T. Nelson, Greg Bailor, Heidi Wixom, Jack St. Martin, James Smack, Jay Gertsema, Jeremy Hughes, Jim DeGraffenreid, Jon Ralston, Kristen Orthman, Laura Martin, Linda Cavazos, Lindsey Jydstrup, Mac Abrams, Mari St. Martin, Marla Turner, Megan Jones, Michael McDonald, Michelle White, Mike Slanker, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Oscar Goodman, Pat Hickey, Paul Smith, Pete Ernaut, Peter Koltak, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Roberta Lange, Ryan Erwin, Ryan Hamilton, Sam Lieberman, Scott Scheid, Yvanna Cancela, Zach Hudson

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

North Carolina: Anita S. Earls, Brad Thompson, Bruce Thompson, Charles Wallin, Christopher Sgro, Dee Stewart, Douglas Wilson, Dylan Frick, Francis X. De Luca, Jonathan Felts, Melissa Reed, Michael Luethy, Morgan Jackson, Paul Shumaker, Patsy Keever, Ray Martin, Robin Hayes, Tami Fitzgerald, Taylor Griffin, Theresa Kostrzewa, Thomas Mills

Ohio: Bill DeMora, Bob Clegg, Cindy Demse, Damareo Cooper, David Leland, David Pepper, Erica Bruton, Greg Beswick, Ian James, Jai Chabria, Janet Carson, Jo Ann Davidson, Joe Hallett, Kathy DiCristofaro, Katie Eagan, Mark R. Weaver, Martha Clark, Matt Borges, Melissa Klide Hedden, Michael Gonidakis, Mike Dawson, Molly Shack, Nick Martin, Rhine McLin, Tim Burke, Wes Goodman

Pennsylvania: Charlie Gerow, Christopher Nicholas, Christopher P. Borick, Daniel F. Fee, David P. Sosar, David Thornburgh, Doc Sweitzer, Jaosn Ercole, Larry Ceisler, Marcel Groen, Mark Harris, Nachama Soloveichik, Ray Zaborney, Todd Stephens

Virginia: Abbi Easter, Bob Marshall, Brian Coy, Carolyn Fiddler, Chris LaCivita, Doris Crouse-Mays, Ed Matricardi, Frank Leone, Gaylene Kanoyton, Janet Carver, Jeannemarie Devoltes Davis, Jo Thoburn, Joe Fitzgerald, John Crosgrove, John Findlay, Marc Broklawski, Margo Horner, Michael Farris, Patsy Brown, Pete Snyder, Ray Allen, Sandra Brandt, Steve Stombres, Sue Langley, Susan J. Rowland, Susan Swecker, Tom Davis, Tucker Martin

Wisconsin: Barry Burden, Brandon Scholz, Emily Nehring, Gary B. Hawley, Jason Rae, Jim Camery, John T. Zapfel, Kevin Barthel, Meg Andrietsch, Marian Krumberger, Mary Arnold, Michael Basford, Patrick Guarasci, Rebecca Bonesteel, Robert Hansen, Terri Burl



Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.

