Breaking down how valuable a high pick could be for the Indianapolis Colts

The good news for Indianapolis Colts fans who have endured a season of second-half collapses lies in the 2018 NFL Draft.

If the season ended today, the Colts (one of three 3-8 teams) would hold the No. 5 pick, which is where the average value of players starts to drop. They hold a strength of schedule tiebreaker over the Chicago Bears (No. 6), and fall behind the Denver Broncos (No. 4).

Here's the rest of the top 10, per tankathon.com (with current strength of schedule):

No. 1: Cleveland (0-11), .528

No. 2: San Francisco (1-10), .534

No. 3 New York Giants (2-9), .511

No. 4: Denver Broncos (3-8), .483

No. 5: Indianapolis Colts (3-8), 489

No. 6 Chicago Bears (3-8), .557

No. 7 New York Jets (4-7), 508

No. 8 Miami Dolphins (4-7), .540

No. 9: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7), .551

No. 10: Cleveland Browns (by way of trade with Houston Texans) (4-7), .511

IndyStar broke down the top 10 picks from the 1997-2016 NFL Drafts. Here are some takeaways, which include more positives for the Colts.

Picks No. 1 and 2 are predictably valuable

The career average value (a stat by pro-football-reference.com that aims to gauge players' general success on the field in a single number) of the top two picks is significantly higher than any others in the top 10, save for No. 4.

We also looked at the success of individual picks in the last 20 drafts. Eight of the 20 No. 1 picks were highly successful booms, while just three were underperforming busts.

In general, the studs drop off quickly after the top two picks. And the busts shoot way up starting with pick No. 6.

Average 'Weighted Career Approximate Value' of draft pick Nos. 1-10:

No. 1: 1,239 (8 booms, 3 busts)

No. 2: 917 (6 booms, 8 busts)

No. 3: 859 (1 boom, 9 busts)

No. 4: 904 (4 booms, 7 busts)

No. 5: 873 (3 booms, 8 busts)

No. 6: 828 (1 boom, 11 busts)

No. 7: 780 (1 boom, 11 busts)

No. 8: 792 (2 booms, 9 busts)

No. 9: 860 (3 booms, 11 busts)

No. 10: 656 (1 boom, 12 busts)

Approximate Value is not a perfect measure but the trends are clear.

The Colts won't likely be in the top two spots, where they picked franchise quarterbacks Peyton Manning (1998) and Andrew Luck (2012). But if they can land at No. 5 or higher, they'll have a better chance at landing a stud.

(Here's a look at who some pundits have the Colts selecting next spring)

The Colts will probably land somewhere between pick No. 3 and 5, which is important

Every loss from this point forward counts.

The Colts play the Broncos in Week 14, which will have direct tie-breaking implications. (The primary tiebreaker is strength of schedule.) But they also have matchups with the Ravens (5-5) and Texans (4-6). There are 16 teams currently between the three- and six-win mark. That means every win could potentially send the Colts spiraling down the draft order.

ESPN projects the Colts to finish with the No. 3 pick. So keep enjoying the losses, Colts fans.

You can find IndyStar sports producer Dakota Crawford on Twitter: @DakotaCrawford_.

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