Last week was a special one. On August 7th, 2015 our Portfolio reached $42,800 or 153 BTC (+337% in USD and +339% in BTC to a previous week) at a peak of ETH price (~3.5$ per ETH). But it lasted not long. The price of ETH reduced to $0.68 by the beginning of this week. And now Portfolio size is $15,800 (56 BTC).

Portfolio Week Performance

Portfolio vs Bitcoin, Performance in 2015, USD

Performance in 2015, BTC

More details about portfolio’s structure and performance you can find in the

Portfolio Performance Table

ETH market events unfolded dramatically. Trade started on Kraken with a price ~$2.5 per ETH, and went up to ~$3.5, but shortly started to fall. The total volume of trade in 4 days amounted to ~$1.5M (6k BTC)

Ethereum price history, by CoinMarketCap

Here is a table where you can see the major milestones of ETH price ups and downs:

Ethereum price analytics 7–10 August 2015

Price for “Buyers” and “Sellers” modes:

Buyers mode ETH price = Sum of BTC held for buy orders / Sum of requested in buy orders ETH Sellers mode ETH price = Sum of BTC requested in sell orders / Sum of ETH held for sell orders

This table shows market depth:

Ethereum market depth analytics, 7–10 August 2015

From Trade Volumes Chart we can conclude that price peak was caused by a deficit of ETHs. As soon as sufficiant amount of ETHs appeared on the market ETH’s price went down.

We see that expectations of Ethereum Genesis Sale Bakers are at the point of ~$3. We did not participate in sales at $3.5 because of deposit delay obstacle.

Let’s try to predict a direction of a price movement. Here are some facts:

the current demand is ~$350K, i.e. less than daily trade volumes

a number of requested ETH’s = 3M vs 400k that are offered.

a price of the “Buyers mode” is not profitable for the participants of the Genesis Sale

an amount of mined coins is ~300k ETH

costs of mined coins are~$200k

Based on the facts that current demand can not be covered by mined coins and that participants of the Genesis Sale want to get some profit I think that the price will go up in the near future.

@21xhipster: At current levels of difficulty an average cost to mine 1 ether is about $0.2 (capex: 1 year return, opex: 0,05 cents/kWh). Spot mining profitability is very high. So in the next 3 weeks we expect 8% daily difficulty growth until a moment when supply from miners will be limited by market forces. I think at that point bulls will have an upper hand.

To see Ethereum Market Cap in real time and other useful information visit: Ethereum at cyber•Fund