In the last two years of Obama’s administration, McConnell succeeded in confirming a mere 22 of its judicial nominees, the lowest total in 65 years. In February 2016, news of Justice Antonin Scalia’s death had hardly sparked the wires before McConnell determined, without consulting any of his colleagues, to refuse consideration of Obama’s pick to replace him. It was a breathtaking gamble. Not just on his colleagues’ willingness to withstand the backlash, but also on a Republican’s ability to win the presidency.

It is perhaps a surprise even to McConnell that the full scope of his leadership has been made possible by a man who once posed on the cover of Playboy. Yet the fact is that Donald Trump has allowed McConnell to shape for himself the legacy he’s always wanted. McConnell has shuttled through more circuit-court judges than any recent Congress at this point in a president’s first term. He still has a dozen seats left to fill, not to mention the hundred or so in the district courts. In April 2017, Neil Gorsuch’s nomination to the Supreme Court sailed through the Senate. Which brings us to today, where the outcome of Kavanaugh’s nomination could crystallize McConnell’s legacy: either as the shrewd, ideologically ambivalent tactician who set a goal of flipping the courts, and three years later—not even a sexual-assault allegation capable of rattling him—did just that. Or as a leader who, despite his best efforts, just couldn’t close the deal.

“Mitch McConnell’s legacy on judges and advancing conservative causes was already secure,” one senior Senate GOP aide told me, “but overcoming historic opposition, and a minority party with no scruples whatsoever, to confirm Brett Kavanaugh will be his greatest victory yet.”

Senators are set to vote to close debate on Kavanaugh’s nomination at 10:30 a.m. If successful, they will convene Saturday afternoon for the final vote.

Friday’s cloture vote caps off an anxiety-filled week in the upper chamber. Last Friday, Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona surprised his colleagues by reversing his commitment to vote for Kavanaugh. After conferencing with Democratic Senator Chris Coons, Flake demanded a week-long FBI investigation into Ford’s allegations before proceeding.

Having signaled his intent to “plow ahead” with Kavanaugh’s nomination in the weeks prior, McConnell was less than eager to indulge him. But Flake had the leverage: Shortly thereafter, Flake’s fellow undecided colleagues, Senators Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, and Joe Manchin rallied behind an investigation. If McConnell wanted their votes, he would have to oblige and ask the White House for its blessing.

For McConnell, however, that brief headache may have proved lucky. On Wednesday, Murkowski made plain in a Senate GOP lunch her disdain for the “plow ahead” model. According to a source briefed on the lunch, Murkowski stood and told her colleagues, forcefully, that the image of “old white men” ramming Kavanaugh’s nomination through, under these circumstances, in the midst of the national #MeToo conversation, was crippling the party. “You just don’t get it,” the source said, paraphrasing Murkowski’s words. The source added that Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska immediately echoed those sentiments, urging his colleagues to view the forthcoming FBI report not as a formality, but as a necessary window into Kavanaugh’s credibility.