We’re simulating the number of delegates each candidate will pick up on Tuesday night’s New York Democratic primary. The dots above represent a range of possible outcomes.

These estimates, which include counties that have not yet reported all their votes, are based on several factors: Our expectations of every candidate’s performance, the voting results in other states and the demographic makeup and historical voting patterns of voters in New York. As votes come in, we expect the uncertainty around our estimates to narrow.

We are running several different models for each candidate in New York; each line in the chart below represents a different model.

We’re also making live estimates for Republicans. Detailed election results are also available for Democrats and Republicans.