Wrinkles in Dem party rules could put strong third-place finisher in driver's seat at convention time. Close contest could make Edwards kingmaker

John Edwards has said he’s in the Democratic primary to win it. He’s also said he’s planning on staying in “through the convention.” And while those two statements may sound more or less the same, they’re not.

Because while Edwards would like to be on the stage accepting his party’s nomination, there may be another role for him at the convention: Kingmaker.


The prospect of a vigorous, three-way contest across some 22 states on Feb. 5, suggested by polling and by the swerving momentum of the two early votes, is raising the distinct possibility that the primary process could return to its roots as a nuts-and-bolts battle for delegates to the August Democratic National Convention in Denver.

The leading Democratic campaigns have all begun to focus on delegates — the prize awarded in primaries and caucuses.

Barack Obama's aides stress that the Illinois senator may well accumulate almost as many delegates as Hillary Clinton on Super Tuesday without winning as many states.

And Clinton told reporters in Elko, Nevada Friday that she expects the contest to continue after Feb. 5.

“This is ultimately about delegates and how many delegates every one of us have,” she said.

Technical features of the Democratic Party’s primary process could hand significant power to a strong third-place finisher, placing him in a position to determine the nomination.

“If Edwards can continue to do what he’s done – which is to win more than 15 percent of the vote – and to distribute his vote generally all over the state – then he will have a big impact on Super Tuesday,” said Tad Devine, a veteran Democratic consultant who ran Michael Dukakis’s delegate-tracking operation in 1988. “I don’t think his impact is going to be that he’s going to win it. But he’d be in an awfully influential position – more than any other individual.”

“Sen. Edwards' delegates could potentially come into play and he could look for a major role,” said Chris Lehane, a Democratic strategist who supports Clinton.

"There may be a race within the race within the race for the hearts and minds of these delegates.”

Though Edwards has criticized both of the front-runners, he's also made clear that he sees Obama as his ally in change — making it likely that he'd be making a king, not a queen.

Here's the math: A Democrat needs 50 percent plus one of a total 4,049 delegates to secure the nomination.

Eighty percent of that total can be won in primaries and caucuses, meaning that to lock up the nomination in the early voting, a candidate would need to collect 62 percent of the delegates awarded through primaires.

The rest are “superdelegates,” party officials who can promise their support, and among whom Clinton holds a lead.

Meanwhile, the 22 states voting and caucusing on Feb. 5 operate under systems that award one-third of their delegates to the winners of the state, and two-thirds to the winner of each congressional district within the state.

The states use proportional representation, meaning that in a close contest, one candidate might get four delegates, the other three.

For instance: Iowa’s caucuses – for narrative purposes a stunning Obama victory – awarded Obama 16 delegates, Clinton 15, and Edwards 14.

Clinton’s "game-changing" New Hampshire win got her and Obama nine delegates each, and Edwards four.

Crucially, the contests operate under a rule that can empower a certain kind of strong third-place finisher: One who breaks through the 15 percent threshold for getting any delegates at all.

A weaker third-place candidate would be eliminated outright.

But the threshold also serves to exaggerate the impact of a candidate who squeaks past it.

The net is a leveling effect: A candidate who just breaks 15 percent will be awarded more than 15 percent of the delegates.

Edwards drew 17 percent of the support from Democrats in a national CNN poll released Friday.

With strong finishes in states where he’s currently polling strong, observers say, Edwards could plausibly win more than 300 delegates.

Of course, this is still probably not the likeliest scenario.

Edwards won’t get votes on Feb. 5 if voters don’t see him as a viable candidate for president, and a weak finish in his native South Carolina on Jan. 26 could end the perception that he’s viable -- and his candidacy.

"Are ordinary voters going to want to vote for him so he can have a little basket of delegates to vote for another candidate?" asked an aide to one of his rivals.

And his delegates won’t automatically follow his lead, and might instead shift to a media-anointed front-runner.

“Nobody’s bound to him. You guys, the media, are the ones who will decide,” said one veteran of past delegate processes who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he supports one of Edwards’ rivals.

“If the delegates go there and are truly dedicated to him and are his people, then he could be kingmaker.”

Edwards aides wouldn't speculate on what he would want for the support of his delegates, but he'd certainly be able to guarantee himself a prominent role in a Democratic admninistration.

Edwards, of course, is publicly conceding no ground.

“The nomination isn't going to be determined by the win-loss record in a few early states; it's going to go to the candidate that can compete widely and accumulate delegates over the long haul,” said an aide to Edwards, Jonathan Prince.

“Ultimately, we expect the race to narrow to one of the two celebrity candidates and us, and when that happens, we are confident that the remaining contests will break in our direction as voters are finally offered the choice the national media has ignored all year: the most progressive, most electable candidate in the race.”

Still, the prospect of serious wrangling in Denver remains a distinct possibility, and the leading campaigns say they’ve begun to focus on the prospect of running the kind of delegate operations that were common in the 1980s, when campaigns would employ a dozen or more staffers, each assigned to minding a set of delegates.

“The most likely scenario now after the fifth of February is that Obama and Clinton will basically split the delegates,” said Devine.

“The only real question is will there be a third candidate who can win between 10 and 20 percent of the delegates, and become a serious force.”