A downward spiral in enrollment at the University of Wisconsin System's two-year campuses spurred the announcement Wednesday of a proposal to keep them afloat by merging them with nearby four-year UW institutions.

The restructuring proposal will go before the UW System Board of Regents for approval in November.

The change proposed by UW System President Ray Cross would create regional UW clusters with two-year branches of four-year campuses.

It would allow the UW System to maintain a higher education presence in out-state Wisconsin counties where the number of college-age students has dropped precipitously because of declining birth rates, Cross told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, which first reported the merger proposal on Tuesday.

Students could still freely transfer from a two-year campus in one regional cluster to any four-year UW institution outside the cluster, and no campus would be closed, Cross said. In fact, some bachelor's degree programs could be added at two-year campuses that currently don't have a four-year campus within an easy commute.

New names for branch campuses have not been decided. But the merger of UW-Waukesha and UW-Washington County with UW-Milwaukee, for example, could create a branch called UW-Milwaukee in Waukesha.

While it may be a practical step in light of past state funding cuts and ongoing demographic changes, Wednesday's news is the biggest shift for the UW System since its creation by the Legislature in 1971.

"It's a recognition that the state of Wisconsin is not going to have as robust a system of higher education as it has in the past," said Terry Hartle, a senior vice president at the American Council on Education in Washington, D.C.

"They can't do everything they would like to do," he said.

The UW System's 13 two-year campuses have been hard hit by declining birth rates because they only draw students from neighboring counties. Demographic shifts have been particularly large in northern Wisconsin.

The two-year UW Colleges also are more tuition-dependent than the 13 four-year campuses, which have other revenue sources such as residence halls and recreation facilities. Millions of dollars in tuition revenue has been lost since 2010.

UW-Manitowoc has been hardest hit by demographic shifts, losing 52% of its enrollment — 266 students — between 2010 and 2017, according to preliminary numbers released last week. UW-Marathon County lost 51% (567 students).

The two best-performing campuses based on enrollment — UW-Rock County and UW-Waukesha — respectively have lost 28% and 29% of their enrollment since 2010.

Demographics suggest nearly 95% of Wisconsin's population growth will be residents age 65 and older by 2040, while those in the labor force ages 18 to 64 will only increase 0.4%.

Merging campuses hopefully will also lead to more students transferring between the two-year UW Colleges and four-year UW institutions to complete bachelor's degrees, which are in demand in the workforce, Cross said.

The two-year campuses effectively prepare students to continue studies at four-year institutions, Cross said.

Under the merger proposal, the two-year campuses would continue to charge tuition that's about half the cost of four-year campuses to maintain savings and access for low-income students, Cross said. Students could save money by starting with UW Colleges and transferring to a four-year campus, he said.

"The whole university is seeing fewer transfers, and we need to make sure the pathway is smooth and totally seamless," Cross said.

The number of students transferring from UW Colleges to any four-year UW institution has dropped from a high of 2,564 in 2012-'13 to 2,226 in 2015-'16, according to the UW System's accountability dashboard.

Five of the 13 four-year campuses would not merge with a two-year campus. Cross said he doesn't expect any negative effects but questions have been raised by some faculty members about regional groupings.

UW System officials said they assigned the two-year campuses to the nearest four-year institutions. But that wasn't the only factor. UW-Barron County in Rice Lake is actually about five miles closer to UW-Stout, but it will become a branch of UW-Eau Claire.

UW-Stout was not assigned a two-year campus branch in the merger proposal. Neither were UW-Parkside, UW-La Crosse, UW-River Falls and UW-Superior.

UW-Stout Chancellor Bob Meyer said in a statement Wednesday to campus employees that he would do everything possible to maintain the four-year campus' historical link to UW-Barron County "and remain a top choice for students who start their education there and continue to a four-year degree."

More students transfer from UW-Barron County to UW-Eau Claire, according to Cross.

There likely will be pushback from faculty at many campuses at least initially, until logistics become more clear, Cross said.

"Change often produces uncertainty, but we cannot be afraid to pursue needed reforms," Cross said in a prepared statement Wednesday morning when he officially announced his proposal.

UW-Extension, the outreach arm of the UW System in counties across the state, would merge with UW-Madison, the state's flagship research university. Some oversight would come from UW System administration.

This move ostensibly would build more direct channels for outreach and research to benefit the people of Wisconsin, as suggested by the UW System's much-touted mission, the Wisconsin Idea.

Under the merger proposal, tenured faculty could be moved or split teaching time at another institution within their new regional cluster, but they would maintain tenure, Cross said. Faculty from UW-Waukesha or UW-Washington County, for example, could be transferred to UW-Milwaukee, and vice versa.

"Job savings will be in consolidation, streamlining and regionalization of shared services to support the academic enterprise," Cross told the Journal Sentinel, referring to administrative functions such as human resources, student services and IT operations.

Cross said possible mergers of campuses have been explored through the years, but recent trends in demographic shifts and cuts in state funding have made the conversation more pressing.

Nationally, the number of college and university students has dropped for five straight years, and no upswing is expected until 2023. The Midwest and Northeast have been hardest hit.

"Budget cuts and demographic changes are a potentially deadly combination for public higher education, and certainly in Wisconsin," said Hartle, of the American Council on Education.

The cost to state government to keep the doors open at two-year campuses in northern Wisconsin would be substantial, he said.

The proposal Cross announced Wednesday "is reasonable and appropriate," Hartle said.

"The upside of what the university is doing is that it keeps the doors open for all institutions," he said.

Here's how the merger would look: