This could annoy Republican presidential hopefuls who are racing to make a footprint on the 2016 campaign. “In a potentially huge field of candidates vying for the Republican nomination for president in 2016, the winner today is Other/Not Sure with 19 percent of the vote,” reports pollster John Zogby, who surveyed several hundred likely Republican primary voters last week.

Mitt Romney is in second place with 14 percent, followed by Jeb Bush with 12 percent of the vote. “It is very early. Unlike the Democrats, the GOP has no clear frontrunner. Arguably, Romney is the heir apparent but he should be doing better than 14 percent. Bush is quite literally the heir and that in itself is perhaps more of a problem than an advantage,” Mr. Zogby observes.

The poll goes on, though: Sen. Rand Paul is in fourth place with 10 percent, followed by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (8 percent), Mike Huckabee (7 percent, Sen. Marco Rubio (7 percent), Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (5 percent), Rep. Paul Ryan and Texas Gov. Rick Perry (each with 4 percent), Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (3 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz (3 percent. And still recognized by voters: South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (2 percent), Rick Santorum (1 percent, and both Sen. Rob Portman and New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez tied at .3 percent

“Historically, since 1960 - with the exception of 1964, the GOP tends to nominate the Gold Watch Candidate, i.e. the fellow who has been around the park the longest and is next in line,” Mr. Zogby says. “At the same time, historically, since 1968, the party has nominated the most ‘moderate’ candidate in the field - with the exception of 1980 when the Gold Watch Candidate Ronald Reagan won over several more moderate candidates who split among themselves. This poll shows that the top four candidates do not fall within the strictest definition of ‘conservative’ as defined by both the social and Christian conservative wings of the party.”

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