Major provisions of the 2010 health-care-overhaul law will take effect in January. That's when employers with 50 or more full-time workers must offer them health insurance or pay penalties. Likewise, individuals must obtain insurance or pay penalties.

Analysts say they expect some employers to stop offering insurance, because the penalties will be less expensive. Other employers already are moving to reduce the law's impact by limiting hiring or reducing some workers' hours.

We asked a panel to tackle the question: Will the Affordable Care Act, as the law is formally known, lead many employers to stop offering health insurance? Our panelists are Kevin Kuhlman, a manager of legislative affairs at the National Federation of Independent Business, a research and lobbying group for small business; Christine Eibner, an economist at RAND Corp. who has studied the possible effects of the law on health-insurance markets; and David Marini, managing director, strategic advisory services, at Automatic Data Processing Inc., who also has studied the law's effects. Here are edited excerpts of their email discussion.

Employers' Calculations

WSJ: Will the health-insurance law lead many employers to stop offering health insurance?

Mr. Kuhlman: The decision by employers to stop offering health insurance to employees as a result of the health-insurance law is far from certain. We do know that the cost of health insurance continues to be the No. 1 problem for small-business owners, as it has been for over 25 years. We also know that erosion of employer-sponsored health insurance predates the law, but increased health-insurance costs from the law may exacerbate the erosion.