CLF Executive Director Corry Bliss argues the party has a long way to go in pushing voters to embrace its recently-passed tax law — but won’t have to do much to convince voters to hold Pelosi in disdain. | Getty Super PAC memo: House GOP still has to sell tax cuts

A new memo from a top super PAC dedicated to helping preserve the GOP's House majority bluntly warns Republicans can’t succeed next November unless they convince the public the party’s signature tax reform law helps the middle class, something of which voters in key districts remain deeply skeptical.

In the memo, based on a blitz of polling across 69 competitive congressional districts, Congressional Leadership Fund executive director Corry Bliss argues the party has a long way to go in pushing voters to embrace its recently passed tax law — but won't have to do much to convince voters to hold House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi in disdain, the second key plank of its strategy.


The first step towards holding the House, Bliss writes, is convincing voters the GOP slashed their taxes with the December passage of the tax bill, H.R. 1 (115). According to CLF's own polling, a plurality of voters in at least 50 battleground districts believe the GOP tax plan will increase their taxes, not cut them. Bliss argues, based on focus groups, that the larger economic argument around the tax bill is irrelevant if voters see their own taxes slashed.

"Incumbents must begin to educate their constituents on this specific legislation and how it cuts taxes for the middle class," he writes. "There is no positive outcome in November if we do not show that we cut taxes for the middle class and are working to make their lives better. Period."

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"While the survey results do show a challenging environment for Republicans, there is a path forward for Republicans to be successful," Bliss continues. "Since the passage of tax reform, both public and private polling show signs of an improving environment — but Republicans still face a challenging environment, and history suggests we should lose the House."

CLF, which is controlled by allies of House Speaker Paul Ryan, will be one of the top outside groups spending on behalf of congressional Republicans this year. The group announced earlier this month it had more than $15 million on hand after raising $26 million in 2017.

Public polling still shows the tax bill is unpopular, although increasing numbers of voters think the law will cut what they fork over to the government each year. Forty-six percent of voters disapprove of the law in a new Pew Research Center survey released Wednesday, while 37 percent approve.

But only 29 percent say the law will have a “mostly positive” impact on them and their family, 27 percent say it will have a “mostly negative” impact and a third don’t see the law having much impact.

American Action Network, a sister nonprofit to Congressional Leadership Fund, has pledged to spend $10 million selling the tax law. It’s already spent $4.5 million on television and digital ads this year.

“It means higher salaries,” says one of the digital ads, which promises $3,000 a year to middle-class families.

Democratic pollsters have argued the law’s larger effects — especially the tilt of the cuts towards the wealthiest Americans and larger corporations and the addition of $1.5 trillion to the national debt — doom it from ever achieving popularity. The same Pew poll shows 35 percent believe the law will have a mostly positive impact on the country as a whole, while 40 percent believe it will hurt the country, and 15 percent see little impact.

Bliss sees the second half of the Republican argument going much better. “PELOSI IS THE LEAST POPULAR ELECTED OFFICIAL IN THE COUNTRY,” the memo blares in capital letters, stating her favorability is underwater in all 69 individual congressional districts polled.

“In every district surveyed, when given a choice between Paul Ryan and Nancy Pelosi, voters choose Paul Ryan as their preferred speaker by double digits,” Bliss writes. “Republicans still have a pathway to winning in many districts.”

The memo cites California’s 10th District, where Rep. Jeff Denham is running for a fifth term. There, Trump’s approval rating is four percentage points underwater, but Ryan leads Pelosi by a 13-percentage-point margin. The memo also argues Trump’s position isn’t as damning as many analysts argue, with results “in line with election results from 2016.”

“Nancy Pelosi has been a gift to Republicans in election after election, and that will be no different this year,” Bliss writes. “Americans do not want her as their speaker — and that must be the choice of this election.”

The memo also instructs members to relentlessly focus on building their own brands and images, including identifying “the 50,000 voters they need to win and [communicating] with them as often as possible about what they are doing for their communities.”

After the memo was first published by POLITICO, a Pelosi spokesman called it "desparate" and a sign Republicans see a challenging midterm environment ahead.

"This desperate memo proves one thing: Paul Ryan and Republicans are coming to terms with just how much defense they will be playing this year,” said Jorge Aguilar, a spokesman for Pelosi's campaign. “Americans will hold Paul Ryan and Republicans accountable for repeatedly plotting to obliterate their health care and forcing an unpopular tax scam that raises taxes on 86 million middle class families."