Since the foundation of the EU LCS, now in its first year as the LEC, Fnatic have never missed playoffs. Impressively, the veteran team have only finished outside third place once in 12 campaigns, and they’ve won seven domestic titles in the same timeframe.





The European giants are a stalwart in the professional League of Legends scene, and they’ve translated that regional mastery into a handful of international glory runs, too. Fnatic will always hold the historic title of the first ever Worlds champions, and most recently, they fell just one series short of lifting a second Summoner’s Cup. Now, the perennial powerhouse organization is staring down the barrel of missing the postseason for the first time in six years.





Fnatic are currently sitting in eighth place after six weeks in the LEC, having won just five of their 12 matches in the new-look European competition. That poor record includes four straight defeats to open their 2019 campaign. That’s difficult to digest for Fnatic fans after their team just had their best finish on the world stage since 2011, but it’s not over until it’s over for the boys in black and orange.





Déjà vu













Funnily enough, this all may sound familiar to you if you’ve been following Fnatic for the last couple of years. Fnatic faced another do-or-die situation at the World Championship in 2017, starting their international tournament out 0-4 in Groups. With Gigabyte Marines and Immortals standing in their way, they needed to win four straight matches to qualify for the Worlds quarterfinals. And that’s exactly what they did.





Now, Fnatic have to once more win four games to progress, though the stakes are admittedly lower. They’ll have to pull off another miracle run, but this time the regional playoffs are on the line rather than surviving at Worlds.





According to Riot’s esports stats team, about 74 percent of teams with nine wins have gone onto compete in the playoffs. 10 wins bumps that chance up to 99.6 percent, but if Fnatic closes the season with a total of eight, their odds drop to just 15.9 percent. That clearly means Fnatic’s objective should now sit at a 9-9 minimum record, confirming four games should be the roster’s target.





In the next three weeks, the organization faces a mixed bag from across the European standings, including the near-undefeated title favorites G2 Esports (11-1) as well as cellar dwellers Rogue and Excel (both 2-10).





Between those two opposites on the ladder, Fnatic also prepare to face dual third-place teams Schalke 04 and Splyce (both 7-5). They round out their path to the postseason with one of the biggest fixtures, the clash against direct playoff rivals Misfits (6-6).





Turning a corner





Many will now be asking the key question in regards to Fnatic. Is there still a world in which they make it back to the finals this split?

If this question had been asked just two or three weeks into the competition, the answer would likely have been “little to none at all,” and the seven-time champions would have been written off entirely.





Now, off the back of the team’s first 2-0 weekend in 2019, there’s a glimmer of hope that the squad have turned a corner in their playstyle, and new recruit Tim “Nemesis” Lipovšek is finally coming into his own.













Led by a huge statement game from Martin “Rekkles” Larsson where he clinched a 10/0/6 game on Kai’sa, Fnatic downed two fellow playoff contenders in Origen and Vitality. Although the Saturday victory took a series of misplayed macro moments from Vitality to confirm it, Fnatic’s overall gameplay appeared cleaner.





Overall, it looks like Fnatic’s 2019 iteration has turned a corner, though they’re not at the finish line yet. A major problem heading into this new season was the revelation that their individual members weren’t head and shoulders above the other teams now.





In 2018, much of Fnatic’s back-to-back championships relied on players like Rekkles and Rasmus “Caps” Winther to simply dominate their lane opponents. This individual brilliance guided them deep into the very end of the League competitive calendar, but when Caps left, it gutted the heart of the team’s playstyle.

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Where once Mads “Broxah” Brock-Pedersen and Zdravets “Hylissang” Iliev Galabov could take a back seat and prop up their duo-carries in the mid and bot lane, they now had to revisit learning the fundamentals of the game.





The issue of losing Caps and replacing him with a passive rookie in the form of Nemesis was compounded by two further changes. These included Paul “sOAZ” Boyer departing to Misfits and head coach Dylan Falco joining Schalke 04.





While Falco’s departure was patched over by Joey “YoungBuck” Steltenpool swapping his manager hat for a coaching jacket, Fnatic’s long-standing solo laner’s departure stung more. Once a rock at the top of the map and a commanding voice, veteran sOAZ was completely replaced by rising star Gabriël “Bwipo” Rau after the two shared the role throughout 2018.













While Bwipo proved he was a breath of fresh air on and off the Rift for the LEC, his overconfidence came to the fore in early weeks as solo deaths amounted to nothing and his team fell behind.





Now, Bwipo has reigned in his aggression for the good of the team, and Nemesis appears to be coming out of his shell, if his confident laning phases against Daniele “Jizuke” Di Mauro and Erlend “Nukeduck” Våtevik Holm last weekend are any indicator.





This, coupled with Rekkles and Hylissang seeming to click after the massive performance from the bot lane against Origen, seems to herald a changing tide for the 2019 squad.





The Path to Postseason





Now that the team have identified their problems, they can turn their attention to key matchups in the near future—Schalke 04, Splyce, and Misfits. With G2 Esports ruled out as a defeat, barring any major upset, and Rogue and Excel both likely victories assuming Fnatic play to their individual levels, those last three teams are key.













Schalke provides the first major test on Friday. Last time out, Elias “Upset” Lipp ran rampant as Rekkles recorded his highest death count in any European domestic game.





Now, Fnatic will look for revenge, and with the German organization coming into the clash on a three-game losing streak, they appear ripe for the taking. Crucially, the continuing Rekkles-Upset battle may be where the match is won and lost.





The following Friday is another significant game, as it’s when Misfits look to keep Fnatic out of the playoff conversation. Finally, Fnatic’s last match of the season is against Splyce, and this match could be the decider for the defending champions. If one of their matches against Misfits or Schalke 04 goes against them, they will have to wipe Splyce off the Rift to jump into playoffs.





Short-term disappointment, long-term gain





All that said, if Fnatic miss Spring Split playoffs, it’s not the end of the world for them. It may be an end to the six-year streak and a missed opportunity for early Worlds qualification points, but not all hope is lost.





If Fnatic do miss the finals this time around, there’s always Summer Split to recuperate their losses. Although qualifying for Worlds with points is one pathway to the year-end tournament, Fnatic have never taken that path before. Instead, the organization has always attended Worlds as either the European champions, the Regional Finals qualifier, or by invitation in Season 1.





So, if Fnatic do miss playoffs, there’s no sweetening the sting, but Worlds is still far on the horizon if they can fix their mistakes and return to the European throne this summer.