Show caption High-profile doctor and independent candidate Kerryn Phelps is up against Labor’s Tim Murray (middle) and the Liberals’ Dave Sharma in the Wentworth byelection on 20 October. Composite: Mick Tsikas, Carly Earl, Joel Carrett./AAP/The Guardian Australian politics Wentworth byelection: Liberal vote collapses as poll shows safe seat now a close contest Exclusive: Liberals leading 51% to 49% on two-party-preferred basis in poll which also shows Kerryn Phelps damaged by preferencing decision Anne Davies @annefdavies Wed 3 Oct 2018 22.56 EDT Share on Facebook

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The Liberal vote in the previously safe seat of Wentworth has collapsed and the byelection could be a very close contest, polling conducted for the Clover Moore-backed independent in Wentworth, Licia Heath, shows.

The ReachTel/UComms survey indicates the Liberal party will squeak back in 51% to 49% on a two-party-preferred basis.

But with two-and-a-half weeks of campaigning to go, the race could go either way, particularly as there is a large field of candidates and it is difficult to predict whether voters will follow candidates’ recommendations on preferences.

The poll also revealed that as many as 52% of people said high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals made it less likely they would give her their vote. That included 50% of Phelps’ own supporters.

Wentworth byelection: Kerryn Phelps backflips on preferences – video

The Liberals’ Dave Sharma’s predicted primary vote of 40.6% is down sharply on the 62.26% first-preference vote of the former member and prime minister Malcolm Turnbull in 2016.

Labor’s Tim Murray has a first-preference vote of 19.5% – up 2 percentage points on 2016 – while Phelps is currently attracting 16.9% of the primary vote.

Tim Murray, Labor’s candidate for Wentworth, hands out flyers to commuters at Bondi Junction on Wednesday. Photograph: Carly Earl/The Guardian

But the other independent, Heath, who was endorsed by the independent Sydney lord mayor Clover Moore and the state independent MP Alex Greenwich, is gaining traction and has 9.4% of the primary vote.

The ReachTel poll surveyed 727 voters on 27 September, using landline and mobile phone surveys. It has a margin of error of 3.4%.

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Heath, a community activist, has been particularly vocal in the campaign for more schools in the eastern suburbs. Rose Bay secondary college now has long waiting lists and there are no other comprehensive public high schools in Wentworth.

According to Greenwich, who is helping with her campaign, her vote is growing and is particularly strong among women, where she is outpolling Labor.

38.4% of those surveyed said the school campaign made it more likely they would vote for Heath.

The Greens’ vote is down significantly on 2016 to 6.2%, possibly because of the other alternatives available to voters.

The polling also reveals significant polarisation in the seat: the Liberals are attracting nearly 55% of the over-65 vote, but Labor and Heath are polling strongly among young voters between the ages of 18-34, with Labor attracting 27.5% of this cohort and Heath 16.3%.

The Liberal vote is also soft in the 51-65 age group. Earlier ReachTel polling has shown that climate change policy, housing affordability and education are important issues in Wentworth.

Phelps’ vote is strongest in the 35-50 age group, where she has 24% of the demographic.

As many as 52% of people voting in the Wenthworth byelection said Kerryn Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals made it less likely they would give her their vote. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

But the outcome is particularly difficult to predict, because there could be much higher levels of voters in Wentworth who choose not to follow their preferred candidate’s how-to-vote card.

Heath will have an open how-to-vote card, which recommends a Vote 1 for her, but allows voters to choose how they allocate preferences. This means her nearly 10% of the vote is particularly unpredictable.

Phelps has announced she will be preferencing the Liberals ahead of Labor but there is no certainty her voters will follow this and it appears to have depressed her vote.

Sharma will need about two-thirds of Phelps’ voters to put him ahead of Labor to win.

Labor’s preferences will flow to Phelps if Murray falls behind her in the count, but at this stage he appears to be ahead of her.

The Greens are directing preferences to Labor, which will boost Murray’s chances of beating Phelps.

“From door-knocking to pre-polling, it is clear that voters in Wentworth want to send a message, not preferences, to the Liberal party on issues like action on climate change and supporting the ABC,” Heath said.

Heath has produced a short video for social media that aims to demystify the preferential voting system.