



L. M. Miller (1,2), F. Gans (1), and A. Kleidon (1)

1 Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany

2 International Max-Planck Research School for Earth System Modeling, Hamburg, Germany



We estimate that between 1868TW of mechanical wind power can be extracted from the atmospheric boundary layer over all non-glaciated land surfaces. Although wind power extraction from a single turbine has little effect on the global atmosphere, many more will influence atmospheric flow and reduce the large-scale extraction efficiency. Any extraction of momentum must also compete with the natural process of wind power dissipation by boundary layer turbulence.



Our study focuses on the rate of wind power generation in the climate system rather than previous near-surface estimates that focused on measured wind velocities and engineering limitations (e.g. Archer and Jacobson, 2005; Lu et al., 2009; Santa Maria and Jacobson, 2009). This consideration results in our estimate being significantly less than previous studies while also being independent of wind turbine size or layout.



Given that only 0.03TW of wind-derived electricity was produced in 2008 (World Wind Energy Association, 2008), there is still substantial wind power development possible with relatively minor climatic impacts. However, future plans for large-scale wind power development must recognize the finite potential of the Earth system to generate kinetic wind energy. It has also been suggested that with increased carbon dioxide concentrations, the total atmospheric dissipation rate, and therefore its kinetic energy generation rate, will decrease (Lucarini et al., 2010; Hern´andez-Deckers and von Storch, 2010).



Future plans must accept that the human appropriation of wind power must be accompanied by a climatic effect and with large-scale deployment, will be associated with a decrease in the total atmospheric kinetic energy generation rate. Our estimation methods are certainly extreme, but they nevertheless provide critical understanding of the limits of wind power in the climate system and how it can serve human energy requirements.



Faced with the present-day global energy demand of 17TW and a predicted change to 16120TW by 2100 (EIA, 2009; IPCC, 2007), extreme calculations such as this will provide the maximum power potentials and possible climatic effects of different forms of renewable energy sources planned to fulfill future human energy requirements. This in turn helps to prioritize which renewable energy resources are likely to be successful in meeting the future global human energy demand. More complex modeling studies can help refine our estimates and climatic impacts, but the presence of a maximum in wind power extractability and the associated climatic consequences from this extraction are fundamental.



http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/2/1/2011/esd-2-1-2011.pdf



ESTIMATING MAXIMUM GLOBAL LAND SURFACE WIND POWER EXTRACTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATIC CONSEQUENCESL. M. Miller (1,2), F. Gans (1), and A. Kleidon (1)1 Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany2 International Max-Planck Research School for Earth System Modeling, Hamburg, GermanyWe estimate that between 1868TW of mechanical wind power can be extracted from the atmospheric boundary layer over all non-glaciated land surfaces. Although wind power extraction from a single turbine has little effect on the global atmosphere, many more will influence atmospheric flow and reduce the large-scale extraction efficiency. Any extraction of momentum must also compete with the natural process of wind power dissipation by boundary layer turbulence.Our study focuses on the rate of wind power generation in the climate system rather than previous near-surface estimates that focused on measured wind velocities and engineering limitations (e.g. Archer and Jacobson, 2005; Lu et al., 2009; Santa Maria and Jacobson, 2009). This consideration results in our estimate being significantly less than previous studies while also being independent of wind turbine size or layout.Given that only 0.03TW of wind-derived electricity was produced in 2008 (World Wind Energy Association, 2008), there is still substantial wind power development possible with relatively minor climatic impacts. However, future plans for large-scale wind power development must recognize the finite potential of the Earth system to generate kinetic wind energy. It has also been suggested that with increased carbon dioxide concentrations, the total atmospheric dissipation rate, and therefore its kinetic energy generation rate, will decrease (Lucarini et al., 2010; Hern´andez-Deckers and von Storch, 2010).Future plans must accept that the human appropriation of wind power must be accompanied by a climatic effect and with large-scale deployment, will be associated with a decrease in the total atmospheric kinetic energy generation rate. Our estimation methods are certainly extreme, but they nevertheless provide critical understanding of the limits of wind power in the climate system and how it can serve human energy requirements.Faced with the present-day global energy demand of 17TW and a predicted change to 16120TW by 2100 (EIA, 2009; IPCC, 2007), extreme calculations such as this will provide the maximum power potentials and possible climatic effects of different forms of renewable energy sources planned to fulfill future human energy requirements. This in turn helps to prioritize which renewable energy resources are likely to be successful in meeting the future global human energy demand. More complex modeling studies can help refine our estimates and climatic impacts, but the presence of a maximum in wind power extractability and the associated climatic consequences from this extraction are fundamental.