The attacks on Saudi Arabia that have sent crude-oil prices surging are certainly the story for financial markets on Monday. Whether they are more than just a fleeting headline depends on just how long production is knocked out or whether the facilities get attacked again.

Analysts at U.K. investment adviser AJ Bell calculated that the last eight times that the year-over-year price growth for oil was over 100%, there was either a global recession or economic slowdown six times.