“Bubble Watch” digs into trends that may indicate economic and/or housing market troubles ahead.

Buzz

As 2018 ends, let’s recap all those economic trends that forced us, at least momentarily, to ask “another bubble?” a decade after the Great Recession.

Dissection

Listed in order of increasing risk, here are 10 reasons to worry that one of the longest economic upswings in history may draw to a close with an ugly ending.

10. Modest wage growth

Local bosses raised salaries in 2018 as the job market tightened.

Still, those fatter paychecks are by no means universal, and the raises that were handed out were in large part not astronomical in an era of worker shortages.

The meager pay hikes show a continued bout of penny-pinching by local bosses. This all but guarantees they’ll be quick to cut wages and workers the minute the business climate sours.

9. Tempered consumer confidence

Shopper exuberance, measured by numerous benchmarks as well as retail-sales patterns, has risen since President Donald Trump was elected.

Much of that confidence pop was due to conservative-leaning folks having a dramatic change of economic heart, becoming extremely enthusiastic about business prospects almost overnight.

But lately, consumer confidence measures reveal some economic skittishness. Strong holiday shopping indicates anxieties haven’t hit checkbooks yet but heightened nervousness is not a pattern to brag about.

8. Slower auto sales

Southern Californians bought a heck of a lot of cars in recent years, so it’s not a big surprise the auto market has peaked.

But what about the eye-catching shift in what is being bought? Fuel-efficient sedans are out and sports utility vehicles and light trucks are in. Either folks are flush enough to buy these pricier vehicles or they don’t think gas prices will soar any year soon.

Such bold thinking could be laudable. Or irrational exuberance.

7. Unsold new homes

For years, we’ve heard local builders must up their game to help boost the options for house hunters.

In 2018, developers got a rude surprise: The build-it-and-they-will-come approach doesn’t work. The number of unsold, finished new homes is running at post-recession highs. This has forced builders to offer more incentives — or a polite way of saying “cut prices.”

Builders over-bet on the upper slice of the market. Their tactics to trim inventories will reverberate — from pressuring all home pricing as well cool future development plans and construction hiring.

6. Stock market volatility

Let’s remember that 2017, for example, was one of the least exciting years on Wall Street in the history books.

In 2018 the proverbial thrill ride known as Wall Street returned to full gyrating style. These sharp moves upset investors who were lulled into complacency by a long bull market.

And nervous investors often do silly things.

5. Rising interest rates

By definition, when interest rates rise the economy is doing well.

So the fact that rates are up is not technically bad news.

In Southern California, where life is expensive, pricier money puts a major dent in the economy. It makes numerous things more expensive, draining cash from everything from daily necessities and discretionary purchases to corporate hiring and investment.

And this wouldn’t be the first time the Federal Reserve upped rates too much with unpleasant economic consequences.

4. Homeowners rush to sell

Southern California housing’s big story of 2017 was what was perceived to be a dramatic shortage of homes to buy.

That changed dramatically in 2018 for reasons not fully fathomable. Was it an abrupt desire to move — whether it was younger owners seeking more space or seniors downsizing? Or investors cashing out of rental properties?

No matter the cause, a rush to sell puts pressure on home values and raises questions about how owners may act when economic conditions truly sour.

3. The slow-growth movement

A growing number of Southern Californians think progress should have limits.

Pick your complaint: Too much construction. Too much traffic. Too many people. The strong local economy gets bad grades from these people who are feeling a crunch.

Forget the who-is-right details. The strongest slow-growth push in three decades will cool the economic climate by at least making new opportunities of various forms harder to create.

It’s a classic be-careful-what-you-wish-for scenario … because slow-growth chatter seems to peak just before the economy dives.

2. Slower hiring pace

The bottom line for the economy is always “Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!”

And it seems Southern California bosses pruned the hiring pace in 2018.

Consider how fast the local economy has grown post-recession and how many business bets have been made on future expansion. Sadly, we won’t get an accurate picture of job growth until early 2019 when revisions to state employment data are released.

But any significant slowdown in new opportunities could upend growth plans, create corporate-level anxieties and pinch take-home pay. Basically, a painful drag for the local economy.

1. Slumping home sales

Southern California homes haven’t been this hard to sell in four years.

Maybe the job market is weak, so house hunters are having second thoughts. Pricier mortgages haven’t help. More choices — the supply of both existing and newly constructed homes both rose — took away the “buy-now-or-never” urgency. And tax-law changes nudged the “rent-or-buy” math away from ownership.

One wonders where pent-up demand went. This most worrisome of 2018’s economic hiccups hints that demand for housing ownership in Southern California is badly overstated.

How bubbly?

On a scale of zero bubbles (no bubble here) to five bubbles (five-alarm warning) … TWO-AND-A-HALF BUBBLES.

Look, not every economic upswing ends in total disaster, though many folks still have ugly images of the damage inflicted a decade ago. How quickly will locals — from powerful corporate chiefs to everyday citizens — shut down spending if 2018’s anxiousness becomes reality in 2019?