'I think they will decide the race': Can young voters again push Democrats to victory in 2020?

Show Caption Hide Caption Difference between caucus and primary, explained The 2020 election is nearing and with that, comes the caucuses and primary elections. But what’s the difference?

DURHAM, N.H. – Ashlyn Giroux and Phoebe Mulry held signs on stage for Bernie Sanders when the U.S. senator from Vermont had a rally here in September.

But in between classes at the University of New Hampshire Wednesday, the two freshmen made their way to hear Sen. Elizabeth Warren speak on campus. Both said they've donated $5 to Warren's presidential campaign, although only Mulry has fully committed to backing the Massachusetts Democrat in the primary. Both plan to get more active ahead of voting.

"Elizabeth Warren is my candidate," Mulry said, explaining that she donated to the campaign after a discussion in her government class about mobilizing the electorate. "I wanted to feel like I was a part of her campaign."

One year out from the 2020 presidential election, and less than 100 days before the first votes are counted in the Iowa caucuses, Democrats are working to energize one of their biggest strengths – young voters.

It's not just a short game for Democrats seeking the party's nomination. Democrats, from county organizers to national party leadership, are looking to build on last year's momentum to defeat President Donald Trump in the general election. In the 2018 midterms, turnout among voters ages 18 to 29 more than doubled from 2014, and they overwhelmingly backed Democrats.

Like past cycles, students are coordinating with campaigns and enlisting supporters. College Democrat groups, especially those in early voting states such as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, are hosting town halls and meet-and-greets with presidential hopefuls. Democrats are also training students to caucus and register first-time voters.

But those efforts also come as political activism among young liberals is already heightened – on display in 2018 and again this summer, when hundreds of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets across the U.S. demanding action on climate change.

Neither Murly nor Giroux, both 18, were old enough to vote in 2016. Giroux said she's still split between Sanders and Warren, calling the other Democrats in the field "very in the middle, and I'm way more far left." Mulry said young progressives are motivated because of the "severity" of what's at stake in 2020.

Carolyn DeWitt, president and executive director of Rock the Vote, said young voters have "incredible power" to determine the direction of the country, noting nearly 40% of the electorate in 2020 will be millennial or Generation Z voters. Rock the Vote, a nonpartisan nonprofit, has worked for three decades to register young voters, inform them of the voting process and increase their participation.

"If young people, young adults, turn out to vote, it's kind of a game-over situation," DeWitt said. "They can dominate and determine pretty much everything. The record-breaking numbers we saw last year, I expect that we will continue to see those next year, (but) there is a lot of work that we need to do."

More: Young Iowa Democrats, coming of age in the Trump era, approach 2020 caucuses with new urgency

Young people shift more Democratic as a group

With progressive causes such as gun control and climate change bringing louder battle cries from young voters, and competitive races in traditionally conservative states like Texas and Georgia, 28.2% of eligible youth voters went to the polls in 2018. That's compared with 13% of eligible young voters who voted in the 2014 midterms, according to research from the nonpartisan Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) at the Tisch College of Civic Life at Tufts University. Voters 30 and older increased their turnout as well, but only by 10 percentage points.

Democratic congressional candidates won 67% of voters ages 18 to 29 in 2018 – a greater than 2-to-1 margin than the 32% of young people who voted for Republicans.

It marked the largest share of the youth vote won by Democrats in recent political history, surpassing even the margins under President Barack Obama, when Democratic congressional candidates won 60% of the youth vote in 2008 and 2012. Obama won 66% of young voters in 2008.

"Things have really shifted, and there's no sign of slowing that down right now that I can tell," said Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, director of CIRCLE. She said it's not simply a backlash against Trump. Rather, issues like racial equity, climate change and gun control have attracted young people, who tend to be more diverse, to Democrats. "There's a definite, explicit statement from young people that they need leaders that will support their priorities."

At a recent Cory Booker meet-and-greet in Washington, D.C., Madeline Sweitzer, 24, called 2020 "probably the most important presidential election of our lifetime." The nonprofit worker, who is leaning toward supporting Warren, said her vote is less about partisanship for a Democrat and more about removing a president she believes has pushed policies that hurt working people.

"When I vote, I guess I'm not just voting for a Democrat, I'm voting for someone that I think would actually help people and make their lives better," Sweitzer said.

Young voters increase share, but still lag behind older voters

Kawashima-Ginsberg said registration of first-time young voters before 2020 is already one year ahead of a typical cycle, a strong indicator they are already receiving contact from campaigns and advocacy groups.

"No question," she said, youth turnout will increase from 2016, when 46% of eligible voters 18 to 29 voted, according to the U.S. Census.

In the 2016 presidential election, voters 18 to 29 years were the only age group to increase their voting rate from 2012, with a bounce of 1.1%t, according to Census figures.

But Hillary Clinton received a smaller share of the youth vote than Obama. Although she won 55% of the youth vote, topping Trump's 40%, it was a 5-point drop from Obama's level in 2012 and an 11-point drop from 2008. To have success against Trump in 2020, some Democrats say it's critical to turn that trend around.

The caveat: Young people, who historically don't vote at the same levels as older age groups, remained underrepresented in the 2018 midterms. Despite the gains, young people accounted for just 11% of the overall vote, even though they accounted for 21% of all eligible voters and 18% of registered voters.

But young voters made up significant ground. Their share of overall votes cast increased by 4 percentage points from 2014, while it decreased by 4 percentage points among voters 30 and older.

It means young people had greater influence as a voting bloc than past elections, and their influence will expand further in 2020 if that pattern holds.

"If we can stay on this trajectory, and use due diligence in supporting young voters and growing voters, I think they will be pivotal," Kawashima-Ginsberg said. "There's no question about that. I think they will decide the race, starting in the primary."

Youth turnout in 2018, according to CIRCLE, increased by more than 20 percentage points from 2014 in four states: New Jersey, California, Virginia and Minnesota. The states with the highest youth turnout in 2018 among youth were Minnesota (43.7%), Montana (42.7%), Colorado (40.8%) and Oregon (39.2).

Most of these states are considered safe or leaning for Democrats in 2020. Only Montana voted for Trump in 2016, although the Trump campaign has targeted Minnesota as a state to pick up.

Erin Perrine, deputy communications director for Trump's reelection campaign, said the president is "energizing and engaging voters of all ages, and will do so well past 2020" when asked about the surge of young people who voted for Democrats in the midterms.

"His common-sense policies coupled with a booming economy has benefited all Americans – whether you are a college graduate entering the workforce or a retiree whose prescription drug prices have been lowered, this administration has delivered."

She added: "We will not only expand on the 2016 electoral map, but we will also increase support across demographics."

How Democrats are courting youth voters

Coura Fall, a 19-year-old from American University in Washington, D.C., who supports Warren, was among the new voters who cast her first ballot in the 2018 midterms. She will be voting absentee next year in Rhode Island. The daughter of undocumented immigrants from Senegal, Fall said Trump's election was a "rude awakening" for young people who thought they were "living in a post-racial society and everything was going to be great."

"I just feel like the power to vote is just so important and so massive," Fall said, "and it seems so simple, but like, you literally get to shape your government to what you want it to be, and that's why I take it so seriously."

Marissa Soltoff, a 22-year-old recent graduate of George Washington University, said she supported Sanders in the 2016 primary and almost cried at Clinton being the nominee but voted for her anyway. This year she's deciding between Sanders, Warren, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and Sen. Kamala Harris.

“Bernie is the OG,” Soltoff said, adding that she likes candidates who are “not just playing into the establishment that we currently have.” She said each is "actually fighting for and advocating for real change that’s actually going to benefit people rather than just the party establishment."

Warren, Sanders and Pete Buttigieg are among campaigns that have national directors devoted solely to the youth vote. Several campaigns have paid staffers in early primary states devoted to student organizers and college outreach. Each touts canvassing efforts aimed at young voters.

Buttigieg, 37, the youngest candidate in the race, has adopted the tagline a "new generation of American leadership." His campaign credits a CNN town hall performance earlier this year for spawning a "Students for Pete" across the country.

The Sanders campaign held an online "summer school" for more than 1,500 students at 627 colleges and community colleges. It was billed as a two-week crash course on political organizing.

Similarly, former Vice President Joe Biden has a Team Joe Organizing Fellowship, an eight-week online program aimed at teaching "the ins-and-outs of grassroots organizing."

Warren held a conference call with organizers to kick off "Students With Warren," which includes students at high schools, community colleges, universities and graduate schools.

“This is our moment to dream big, fight hard and win,” Warren told the crowd at last week's University of New Hampshire town hall.

She opened her remarks with a nod to young voters, blasting a new New Hampshire state law, backed by Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, that created tougher voting restrictions. Critics have said it will make it more difficult for out-of-state college students to vote.

"I want to say something that I know is very controversial in some places in New Hampshire, like maybe the governor's office. I believe in the right of every American citizen to vote, including college students."

Which Democrat can dominate the youth vote?

In the 2016 Democratic primary, Sanders used a wave of support among youth voters to carry his bid against Clinton. But this time around, support among young voters is more split in the primary, particularly with Warren, polling has shown. Both have pushed socially and economically liberal messages that include eliminating student debt and free college tuition.

A generational divide dominates Democratic voters, a new New York Times/Siena College poll of Iowa Democrats found, with more than 85% of voters younger than 30 saying they prefer a candidate promising fundamental change. Seventy percent of voters older than 65 said they want a candidate who will return Washington to normalcy.

It helps explain the popularity of Sanders and Warren among young people, whose economic populist messages have also raised questions about their electability in a one-on-one matchup against Trump.

Joe Calvello, a campaign spokesman for the Sanders campaign, said young people have "experienced the failures of the current system." He said they are "shackled by student debt, are on track for a lower standard of living than their parents" and "know better than anyone how much is at stake in 2020."

"We need to nominate a candidate for president that will inspire millions upon millions of young people to be engaged in the political process for the first time, Bernie Sanders is the only candidate that will do that.”

Marisol Samayoa, Buttigieg's deputy national press secretary, said "a real crisis" faces young people with issues like climate change and voting rights. She said that's why young people are responding to Buttigieg's "platform of structural and generational change."

"Young voters are done waiting for Washington to act on these issues and Pete’s the only candidate ready to meet these challenges with the urgency it requires," she said.

A Quinnipiac University national poll in October found that 31% of Democratic voters ages 18 to 34 support Sanders while 30% back Warren. Third among young voters in the poll was Buttigieg at 12%. Biden was at 6% in the 18-34 category, tied with Harris.

A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University national poll found Sanders also leading voters ages 18-34 with 23%, but Biden faring much better, tied with Warren with young voters at 19%. But the New York Times/Siena College poll painted a troubling picture for Biden in Iowa, including less support among voters 45 or younger than Andrew Yang.

Biden, who tops his peers significantly in support of people over the age of 65, pushed back when asked about his lagging support among youth voters during an interview on "60 Minutes." Some progressive Democrats have warned a Biden nomination would not excite young people like other candidates would.

"The fact of the matter is, if you take a look at who votes in these primaries, overwhelmingly people over the age of 50 vote in these primaries," Biden said in the interview. He added that he wants people engaged and voting, but criticized proposals such as Medicare for All as relying on "far-reaching assertions" that can't deliver true change.

Pete Kavanaugh, Biden's deputy campaign manager, said the campaign is going to compete for every vote and takes youth organizing "very seriously."

"Are there going to be some variants in polling across ages and demographics?" Kavanaugh said. "Sure, but I think we are making very concerted efforts to reach out to younger voters and I think we're beginning to see the fruits of that labor, especially when we're able to engage with students in a one-on-one setting."

Reach Joey Garrison on Twitter @joeygarrison. Reach Rebecca Morin on Twitter @RebeccaMorin_