Last week I asked if any team could dethrone Denver. Seemingly right on cue, a team dethroned Denver. Does that make the Patriots the best team in the land?

There seems to be a prevailing sentiment in the NFL that if a team loses — no matter how good they had been in all the games leading up to that loss — it must drop down in the rankings. And many times, the team that won will surpass the losing team in the rankings. This really is a "what have you done for me lately" league.

It's also indicative that most Power Rankers base their rankings on W-L records.

So the Patriots beat the Broncos in Manning-Brady Bowl LXXXVIII. Clearly, the Patriots are the best team in the NFL, right? Maybe not.

Notable Quotes

Awful. What more can you say? The freefall continues for the Chargers, who were at the top of the charts just a month ago. Philip Rivers was a turnover machine on Sunday. The offense? Dysfunctional. The defense? Eventually given a reprieve by a Miami team too exhausted to keep scoring. - NFL.com

The Chargers are collapsing even faster than they’d like their stadium to. - ProFootballTalk

If you want to be the worst team in football, then be the worst team in football. If you want to be a mediocre team, put some points on the board and attempt to play defense. If you want to be a good team, don't throw picks, be able to run the ball, and stop an offense. If you want to be a great team, stomp your opponents 37-0. Chargers, do something football related besides showing up in a uniform please. This week you looked like the worst team in the NFL. - Reddit

Division Averages

Division Week 9 Average Week 10 Average Difference NFC West 12.8864 13.4868 -0.6004 AFC North 13.9432 13.5395 0.4037 AFC East 16.4091 14.5789 1.8302 AFC West 13.0568 14.9079 -1.8511 NFC North 16.7841 15.7237 1.0604 NFC East 14.6477 15.8553 -1.2076 AFC South 20.6477 20.5921 0.0556 NFC South 23.6250 23.3158 0.3092

Denver and Chargers hurting the AFC West divisional average.

Stock Rising

Team Week 9 Average Week 10 Average Difference MIA 15.591 10.083 5.508 PIT 15.182 11.350 3.832 NO 17.091 14.344 2.747 MIN 25.000 22.644 2.356 STL 26.818 25.106 1.712

Miami has looked good in recent weeks, so their rise is not a surprise. I expected Pittsburgh to rise more though, honestly.

Stock Falling

Team Week 9 Average Week 10 Average Difference SDG 9.727 16.733 -7.006 SF 10.955 15.183 -4.228 BAL 9.136 12.461 -3.325 DAL 7.091 10.100 -3.009 CAR 21.136 22.950 -1.814

Chargers fell 7 spots on average, and rightfully so; I'm disappointed they aren't ranked 33rd right now though.

Subjective Average

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA PFT NFL SN Reddit AP Average Change in Value Patriots 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1.444 1.738 Cardinals 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1.556 0.535 Broncos 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3.111 -2.111 Eagles 4 5 4 4 3 4 5 5 4 4.222 0.596 Lions 6 4 6 9 5 9 4 7 5 6.111 0.525 Colts 5 6 10 5 8 6 6 4 6 6.222 2.142 Cowboys 9 7 5 6 6 7 7 6 10 7.000 -2.454 Packers 8 12 7 7 9 10 9 9 8 8.778 0.313 Steelers 7 13 12 11 7 5 11 8 7 9.000 5.546 Seahawks 10 10 8 8 10 8 8 10 9 9.000 0.273 Bengals 11 15 9 10 11 12 10 11 12 11.222 0.869 Chiefs 12 9 11 14 13 11 13 13 11 11.889 1.293 Dolphins 13 8 13 12 15 13 15 12 13 12.667 4.515 Ravens 14 16 17 13 12 17 16 15 17 15.222 -3.495 Bills 18 11 14 18 14 14 19 17 15 15.556 0.080 Saints 15 14 19 17 17 15 14 18 14 15.889 3.020 49ers 16 19 18 16 18 19 12 16 16 16.667 -4.940 Chargers 17 18 16 15 19 16 17 14 18 16.667 -7.849 Browns 19 17 15 20 16 18 18 19 19 17.889 1.566 Texans 20 23 20 19 23 20 21 20 21 20.778 -1.232 Vikings 23 20 23 22 20 21 22 24 22 21.889 2.747 Panthers 22 24 22 23 22 24 20 21 20 22.000 -1.545 Rams 25 21 25 21 21 23 23 25 24 23.111 3.071 Giants 24 22 21 24 25 22 24 23 25 23.333 -2.151 Bears 21 25 24 25 24 25 25 22 23 23.778 -0.505 Redskins 26 26 26 27 26 26 26 26 26 26.111 -2.293 Falcons 27 28 27 26 27 27 27 27 27 27.000 -0.364 Titans 28 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28.111 0.162 Buccaneers 29 27 29 29 30 29 31 30 31 29.444 0.374 Jaguars 31 31 30 31 29 30 29 31 29 30.111 0.162 Jets 30 30 31 30 31 31 30 29 30 30.222 -0.586 Raiders 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 0.000

Observations:

Patriots beat the king, therefore they get to be the new king this week.

Arizona, despite having a better record, gets passed up for the throne (though, not by much).

All but one site has the Broncos at third now, as if one loss showed there are now two teams better than the Broncos.

Chargers all the way down by 17th, getting cozy with San Francisco.

8 of the bottom 12 teams are NFC teams.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA PFT NFL SN Reddit AP STD DEV Change in Value Raiders 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.000 0.000 Redskins 26 26 26 27 26 26 26 26 26 0.314 -0.715 Broncos 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 0.314 0.314 Titans 28 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 0.314 -0.303 Falcons 27 28 27 26 27 27 27 27 27 0.471 -0.172 Cardinals 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 0.497 0.209 Patriots 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 0.497 -0.219 Jets 30 30 31 30 31 31 30 29 30 0.629 -0.252 Eagles 4 5 4 4 3 4 5 5 4 0.629 -0.484 Jaguars 31 31 30 31 29 30 29 31 29 0.875 0.013 Seahawks 10 10 8 8 10 8 8 10 9 0.943 -0.713 Buccaneers 29 27 29 29 30 29 31 30 31 1.165 0.229 Vikings 23 20 23 22 20 21 22 24 22 1.286 0.136 Texans 20 23 20 19 23 20 21 20 21 1.315 0.533 Giants 24 22 21 24 25 22 24 23 25 1.333 -0.916 Bears 21 25 24 25 24 25 25 22 23 1.397 0.647 Panthers 22 24 22 23 22 24 20 21 20 1.414 -0.363 Chiefs 12 9 11 14 13 11 13 13 11 1.449 -0.994 Packers 8 12 7 7 9 10 9 9 8 1.474 -0.917 Cowboys 9 7 5 6 6 7 7 6 10 1.491 0.709 Chargers 17 18 16 15 19 16 17 14 18 1.491 -0.501 Browns 19 17 15 20 16 18 18 19 19 1.524 0.025 Bengals 11 15 9 10 11 12 10 11 12 1.618 -0.311 Rams 25 21 25 21 21 23 23 25 24 1.663 1.088 Colts 5 6 10 5 8 6 6 4 6 1.685 -0.883 Ravens 14 16 17 13 12 17 16 15 17 1.750 -0.666 Saints 15 14 19 17 17 15 14 18 14 1.792 0.287 Lions 6 4 6 9 5 9 4 7 5 1.792 -0.175 Dolphins 13 8 13 12 15 13 15 12 13 1.944 0.046 49ers 16 19 18 16 18 19 12 16 16 2.055 0.241 Bills 18 11 14 18 14 14 19 17 15 2.455 1.229 Steelers 7 13 12 11 7 5 11 8 7 2.625 1.320

Observations:

Raiders still unanimously the worst team in the league, which I don't see that as fair. I don't see their rankings changing until after (and if) they win a game though.

Redskins, Broncos, and Titans almost all unanimous picks at their position if not for 1 ranker.

In week 1, there was no unanimous consensus among the rankings, and the highest standard deviation was 4.114. What counts as middle of the pack at about 1.333 this week was better than 22 teams in week 1.

In Week 1, the Falcons were the least consistently-ranked team by far (with a standard deviation of 4.114.) This week they're 5th most consistently-ranked.

Objective Average

Objective FO TE TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH Average Change in Value Broncos 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.000 Colts 9 3 4 3 6 6 2 4 6 4 4.700 1.118 Patriots 8 14 2 2 7 7 3 5 3 3 5.400 0.509 Chiefs 6 8 11 7 24 2 4 3 4 6 7.500 -0.409 Dolphins 3 2 12 11 20 5 5 2 8 7 7.500 6.500 Seahawks 7 7 3 4 13 10 12 8 7 9 8.000 -1.454 Cardinals 16 22 10 6 2 3 8 13 2 2 8.400 1.236 Packers 4 4 5 8 18 8 10 6 11 11 8.500 1.409 Eagles 5 18 9 5 4 20 6 17 5 5 9.400 2.418 Ravens 2 15 7 13 12 4 7 10 17 10 9.700 -3.154 Lions 12 10 13 12 9 11 13 9 13 8 11.000 1.546 Saints 11 9 6 9 17 9 17 14 18 18 12.800 2.473 Bengals 14 6 14 15 10 14 19 11 14 14 13.100 -0.736 Cowboys 13 11 17 16 8 12 15 18 10 12 13.200 -3.564 49ers 20 12 8 10 3 22 18 16 12 16 13.700 -3.518 Steelers 10 13 16 17 5 15 16 12 16 17 13.700 2.118 Bills 15 17 21 18 11 18 11 7 15 15 14.800 2.018 Chargers 17 25 15 14 27 19 9 20 9 13 16.800 -6.164 Browns 19 16 23 22 15 13 21 15 20 20 18.400 0.600 Texans 24 23 18 19 16 16 14 19 19 19 18.700 -1.791 Giants 22 24 19 21 19 21 20 22 23 21 21.200 -1.473 Bears 21 20 24 20 25 17 23 26 22 23 22.100 0.718 Redskins 23 5 26 26 21 24 22 23 26 25 22.100 -0.464 Vikings 27 27 25 25 14 25 24 21 24 22 23.400 1.964 Panthers 25 19 20 24 22 27 26 27 25 24 23.900 -2.082 Falcons 18 30 22 23 28 23 25 25 28 27 24.900 0.282 Titans 26 21 28 28 23 30 27 24 27 28 26.200 -0.200 Rams 29 29 27 27 26 26 30 30 21 26 27.100 0.355 Jets 28 28 29 30 31 31 29 28 29 29 29.200 -0.291 Jaguars 31 26 32 32 29 29 31 29 31 32 30.200 -0.200 Buccaneers 32 31 30 29 30 32 32 31 30 30 30.700 0.209 Raiders 30 32 31 31 32 28 28 32 32 31 30.700 0.027

Observations:

Oh. The Broncos are still the unanimous best team in all formula-based rankings.

Oh, and the Chiefs are only 3 spots behind the Broncos. Great.

Chargers slide to 16.800. Not terrible, not great, mediocre.

It's safe to call Team Efficiency an outlier when it comes to the Redskins.

Raiders and Buccaneers tied for the bottom spot in these rankings, with the Jaguars just a half spot ahead of them.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective FO TE TR SAG BG Aikman PFR CHFF Massey ARGH STD DEV Change in Value Broncos 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 0.000 Buccaneers 32 31 30 29 30 32 32 31 30 30 1.005 0.105 Jets 28 28 29 30 31 31 29 28 29 29 1.077 0.177 Raiders 30 32 31 31 32 28 28 32 32 31 1.487 -0.114 Giants 22 24 19 21 19 21 20 22 23 21 1.536 -1.061 Lions 12 10 13 12 9 11 13 9 13 8 1.789 -0.359 Jaguars 31 26 32 32 29 29 31 29 31 32 1.833 -0.026 Colts 9 3 4 3 6 6 2 4 6 4 1.952 0.152 Bears 21 20 24 20 25 17 23 26 22 23 2.548 -0.074 Rams 29 29 27 27 26 26 30 30 21 26 2.548 0.771 Titans 26 21 28 28 23 30 27 24 27 28 2.600 -0.533 Panthers 25 19 20 24 22 27 26 27 25 24 2.625 -0.834 Texans 24 23 18 19 16 16 14 19 19 19 2.900 -1.642 Seahawks 7 7 3 4 13 10 12 8 7 9 3.000 -0.500 Cowboys 13 11 17 16 8 12 15 18 10 12 3.059 -0.516 Browns 19 16 23 22 15 13 21 15 20 20 3.231 -0.837 Bengals 14 6 14 15 10 14 19 11 14 14 3.270 0.071 Falcons 18 30 22 23 28 23 25 25 28 27 3.360 0.320 Patriots 8 14 2 2 7 7 3 5 3 3 3.555 -0.364 Vikings 27 27 25 25 14 25 24 21 24 22 3.611 1.599 Steelers 10 13 16 17 5 15 16 12 16 17 3.635 -0.222 Bills 15 17 21 18 11 18 11 7 15 15 3.919 -0.100 Packers 4 4 5 8 18 8 10 6 11 11 4.056 -0.153 Saints 11 9 6 9 17 9 17 14 18 18 4.285 0.615 Ravens 2 15 7 13 12 4 7 10 17 10 4.518 0.601 Dolphins 3 2 12 11 20 5 5 2 8 7 5.315 -0.563 49ers 20 12 8 10 3 22 18 16 12 16 5.515 -0.543 Chargers 17 25 15 14 27 19 9 20 9 13 5.776 0.212 Redskins 23 5 26 26 21 24 22 23 26 25 5.941 1.423 Eagles 5 18 9 5 4 20 6 17 5 5 6.020 -0.472 Chiefs 6 8 11 7 24 2 4 3 4 6 6.037 0.669 Cardinals 16 22 10 6 2 3 8 13 2 2 6.515 -0.674

Observations:

A lot of variance this week, and it's not all BeatGraphs' fault.

Some formulas not very impressed with the Cardinals, despite their 7-1 record.

Take out BeatGraphs and the Chiefs are actually fairly consistent, relatively speaking

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value Broncos 3.111 1.000 2.056 -1.056 Patriots 1.444 5.400 3.422 1.123 Cardinals 1.556 8.400 4.978 0.886 Colts 6.222 4.700 5.461 1.630 Eagles 4.222 9.400 6.811 1.507 Seahawks 9.000 8.000 8.500 -0.591 Lions 6.111 11.000 8.556 1.035 Packers 8.778 8.500 8.639 0.861 Chiefs 11.889 7.500 9.694 0.442 Dolphins 12.667 7.500 10.083 5.508 Cowboys 7.000 13.200 10.100 -3.009 Steelers 9.000 13.700 11.350 3.832 Bengals 11.222 13.100 12.161 0.066 Ravens 15.222 9.700 12.461 -3.325 Saints 15.889 12.800 14.344 2.747 Bills 15.556 14.800 15.178 1.049 49ers 16.667 13.700 15.183 -4.228 Chargers 16.667 16.800 16.733 -7.006 Browns 17.889 18.400 18.144 1.083 Texans 20.778 18.700 19.739 -1.512 Giants 23.333 21.200 22.267 -1.812 Vikings 21.889 23.400 22.644 2.356 Bears 23.778 22.100 22.939 0.106 Panthers 22.000 23.900 22.950 -1.814 Redskins 26.111 22.100 24.106 -1.379 Rams 23.111 27.100 25.106 1.712 Falcons 27.000 24.900 25.950 -0.041 Titans 28.111 26.200 27.156 -0.020 Jets 30.222 29.200 29.711 -0.438 Buccaneers 29.444 30.700 30.072 0.292 Jaguars 30.111 30.200 30.156 -0.020 Raiders 32.000 30.700 31.350 0.014

Observations:

Broncos retain the top spot. Patriots are almost as close to the Cardinals as they are the Broncos.

A lot of times, clusters of teams emerge. However, we have a fairly smooth gradation.

Neat, an even 6-6 split of NFC and AFC teams in the top 12.

The NFC doesn't seem to be the class of the NFL this year with half the conference occupying the bottom third of the rankings.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value Jets 30.222 29.200 1.029 0.067 Broncos 3.111 1.000 1.076 1.076 Buccaneers 29.444 30.700 1.252 0.184 Raiders 32.000 30.700 1.259 -0.039 Jaguars 30.111 30.200 1.461 0.006 Giants 23.333 21.200 1.794 -0.742 Colts 6.222 4.700 1.982 -0.575 Titans 28.111 26.200 2.125 -0.403 Bears 23.778 22.100 2.245 0.303 Seahawks 9.000 8.000 2.325 -0.734 Panthers 22.000 23.900 2.340 -0.493 Texans 20.778 18.700 2.514 -1.001 Browns 17.889 18.400 2.581 -0.493 Falcons 27.000 24.900 2.673 0.359 Bengals 11.222 13.100 2.783 0.138 Vikings 21.889 23.400 2.866 1.187 Rams 23.111 27.100 2.948 1.482 Lions 6.111 11.000 3.027 -0.574 Packers 8.778 8.500 3.116 -0.332 Patriots 1.444 5.400 3.267 0.138 Bills 15.556 14.800 3.329 0.300 Saints 15.889 12.800 3.683 0.340 Cowboys 7.000 13.200 3.945 0.315 Steelers 9.000 13.700 3.965 1.016 Chargers 16.667 16.800 4.315 0.038 Ravens 15.222 9.700 4.449 0.290 49ers 16.667 13.700 4.494 -0.044 Redskins 26.111 22.100 4.757 1.304 Dolphins 12.667 7.500 4.828 0.180 Chiefs 11.889 7.500 4.998 -0.166 Eagles 4.222 9.400 5.094 -0.732 Cardinals 1.556 8.400 5.842 -0.492

Observations:

I really don't have much to add here. Does anyone else see anything interesting here?

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value Cardinals 1.556 8.400 6.844 -0.702 Cowboys 7.000 13.200 6.200 1.109 Eagles 4.222 9.400 5.178 -1.822 Lions 6.111 11.000 4.889 -1.020 Steelers 9.000 13.700 4.700 3.427 Rams 23.111 27.100 3.989 2.716 Patriots 1.444 5.400 3.956 1.229 Panthers 22.000 23.900 1.900 0.536 Bengals 11.222 13.100 1.878 1.605 Vikings 21.889 23.400 1.511 0.784 Buccaneers 29.444 30.700 1.256 0.165 Browns 17.889 18.400 0.511 0.966 Chargers 16.667 16.800 0.133 -1.685 Jaguars 30.111 30.200 0.089 0.362 Packers 8.778 8.500 -0.278 -1.096 Bills 15.556 14.800 -0.756 -1.938 Seahawks 9.000 8.000 -1.000 1.727 Jets 30.222 29.200 -1.022 -0.295 Raiders 32.000 30.700 -1.300 -0.027 Colts 6.222 4.700 -1.522 1.023 Bears 23.778 22.100 -1.678 -1.223 Titans 28.111 26.200 -1.911 0.362 Texans 20.778 18.700 -2.078 0.558 Falcons 27.000 24.900 -2.100 -0.645 Broncos 3.111 1.000 -2.111 -2.111 Giants 23.333 21.200 -2.133 -0.678 49ers 16.667 13.700 -2.967 -1.421 Saints 15.889 12.800 -3.089 0.547 Redskins 26.111 22.100 -4.011 -1.829 Chiefs 11.889 7.500 -4.389 1.702 Dolphins 12.667 7.500 -5.167 -1.985 Ravens 15.222 9.700 -5.522 -0.340

Observations:

The Eagles' objective ranking is finally coming up to meet their subjective ranking. Still quite a bit of disparity there.

A disparity of nearly 5 spots or more for the top teams on this list. Are they really better than the stats indicate, or are they being set up for a fall?

Agreement across the board about the Chargers being mediocre.

Chiefs, Dolphins, and Ravens all significantly under-ranked.

Sources