Thune’s decision not to run in 2012 signals that no sitting member of Congress is openly pursuing a bid. Absent from 2012 race: Congressmen

Sen. John Thune’s (R-S.D.) decision to pass on a presidential run means that no sitting member of Congress is openly pursuing a White House bid – a modern first that illustrates the lingering toxicity of the GOP’s congressional wing.

It’s an unusual state of affairs, particularly since the Senate is known for its ability to stoke the national ambitions of even its lesser members.


But Washington Republicans are still viewed with deep suspicion by many conservatives and tea party activists who believe the GOP drifted far from its small-government principles during the Bush years. Years of earmarking, an expensive prescription drug benefit and, especially, the 2008 bank bailout, have taken their toll, making it difficult for veteran congressmen and senators to use the Capitol as a launching pad.

Thune, for example, would have faced considerable unease among some in the party base over his support for TARP.

“A lot of the senators that stood up and voted for TARP paid a huge price for it,” observed former Senate GOP Leader Trent Lott, citing those Republicans who lost in both primaries and general elections in 2008 and 2010. “That last couple of years of the Bush administration were a real drag.”

And even while Bush’s numbers tick back up, the wariness of conservatives toward Beltway Republicans remains.

“Congress is a tough springboard for a presidential run under any circumstances, but it’s even harder in the anti-establishment political climate we’re in,” said GOP ad-maker Todd Harris. “Spending a few decades in Washington is probably not the best resume builder to be an outsider presidential candidate.”

For those Republican members of Congress who managed to survive the 2006 and 2008 general elections and the stormy 2010 primary season, some of their past positions would have surely haunted them.

Even an ardent conservative like former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum — one of the Republicans swept away in 2006 –already has been forced to offer a mea culpa over his support for earmarks as a member of the House and Senate.

“The political environment changed, but their voting records had an annoying habit of sticking around,” noted Harris.

An exception could be Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), a true-believing conservative in his second term who opposed TARP and has crusaded against earmarks. But while keeping the possibility of a presidential run open, he’s also said repeatedly that he’s not inclined to get in the race. Without DeMint or a darkhorse colleague running, 2012 will mark the first election since 1904 without a sitting member of Congress in the field.

The Beltway contagion isn’t the only factor shaping the 2012 field. For some congressional Republicans, it’s also a matter of timing.

There’s not exactly a scarcity of GOP stand-outs in the House and Senate, but, like a baseball team loaded with promising rookies and wizened old veterans, they suffer at the moment from a generation gap.

Youthful stars like Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.) are at least one presidential cycle away from political ripening while some of the most high-profile leaders are already retiring (Senate Whip Jon Kyl) or are content to serve out their time in politics atop their caucuses (Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Speaker John Boehner).

There’s about a 20-year difference between the GOP’s congressional comers and its more established figures, Lott noted.

“And in that gap is where a potential president would come from,” Lott observed, noting that Thune, 50, was the only top prospect who fell in between the two ends.

Former President George W. Bush adviser Karl Rove pointed out that President Obama, who ran for the White House and won while still in his first Senate term, is the exception: it takes most members of Congress years to establish themselves on the national stage before they can be competitive in a presidential race.

“It takes some period of time to cement your credentials, build your policy bona fides, develop relationships around the country and build a fundraising base beyond your own state,” Rove observed, noting that the potential GOP presidential aspirants in the Senate “are a relatively young group.”

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) , for example, came from a prominent military family and survived a harrowing and much-publicized POW experience – but he didn’t run for President until 2000, some 18 years after he was first elected to Congress.

But as McCain—and Democratic Sen. John Kerry before him—learned, there is a downside to an identity forged through years of Washington experience.

With high-stakes and high-profile fights to be waged in Congress over the next few years, however, Capitol Hill remains an attractive holding area.

“I think we’re at a time of a very demanding congressional workload,” said former GOP Rep. Tom Reynolds. “The public has an expectation that Congress will do their job and address big issues.”

Thune alluded to this in his statement explaining why he wouldn’t run.

“There is a battle to be waged over what kind of country we are going to leave our children and grandchildren and that battle is happening now in Washington, not two years from now,” he said.

Longtime Republican strategist Jim Dyke added: “I think these guys believe they have something important to accomplish and if they meet their goals they will have lots of other opportunities. And sometimes the environment dictates opportunity. To say – I have the ideas and experience [to run for president] in the middle of what is likely to be one of the most important policy debates in our country’s history, before it’s completed, would not be viewed favorably by voters.”

Then there is the historical record, which members of both congressional chambers can’t overlook.

As he decided between a presidential run or gubernatorial bid last month, it’s likely that the name James Garfield crossed the mind of Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.). Garfield was the last sitting member of the House to win the presidency. That was in 1880. Pence decided to run for governor.

The hope among many Republicans is that the election of 2010 and some of the accomplishments of members from that class will ultimately create a new crop of White House prospects.

“The 1994 class brought us 2000,” noted Reynolds. “We’re now developing another great class of governors that are not ready yet and at the same time we’re seeing another [generational] shift in Senate. So there are a number of future candidates – it just happens they’re not ready now.