Five weeks into the NFL season, the New England Patriots sit atop ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and are the favorites to win Super Bowl 50.

Yet the team most likely to win its division is not the Patriots, according to FPI. That honor belongs to the Green Bay Packers, who are three games up in the NFC North with a 96 percent chance to take home the divisional crown.

The key for the Patriots is the depth of their division. As the only division in the NFL with three teams above .500, the AFC East has the highest average FPI (plus-3.0) and FPI rank (11th) in the NFL.

In fact, the AFC East has three teams ranked in the FPI Top 10; neither the AFC West nor the AFC South have a team in the top 10 of ESPN’s Football Power Index. What does that mean for the playoff hopes of the Patriots, Bills and Jets?

Three of the six most likely teams to make the playoffs from the AFC reside in the AFC East. FPI projects that there is a 28 percent chance that all three (Patriots, Jets and Bills) make the playoffs.

Another interesting divisional race is in the NFC East. The Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys each have at least a 19 percent chance to win the division, but a number of key games in the next two weeks will help shape the playoff picture.

If the Giants beat Philadelphia this week (Monday Night), their playoff chances will rise from 38 percent to 60 percent. If they win both of their next two games (at Philadelphia and versus Dallas), those odds will nearly double to 71 percent.

Overall, there are six teams that FPI projects have at least an 80 percent chance of winning their division entering Week 6 of the NFL season.

NFL Football Power Index TEAM FPI PROJECTED

WINS CHANCE

TO WIN DIV. CHANCE

TO MAKE PLAYOFFS CHANCE

TO WIN SB Patriots 9.0 12.6 82.2% 98.1% 27.7% Cardinals 8.7 11.6 85.3% 96.0% 21.5% Packers 5.3 12.2 95.7% 98.6% 13.0% Eagles 4.8 9.0 48.7% 59.8% 3.0% Seahawks 4.3 8.6 11.0% 47.2% 1.7% Steelers 3.9 9.3 20.8% 53.3% 2.7% Bengals 3.6 11.4 76.9% 92.0% 7.0% Falcons 3.4 12.3 81.9% 98.4% 8.8% Jets 3.2 10.0 13.3% 71.9% 2.6% Bills 2.5 9.0 4.4% 51.5% 1.3% Broncos 2.5 11.1 89.4% 92.3% 5.2% Colts 2.3 9.4 86.1% 87.0% 2.8% Ravens 0.8 6.8 1.3% 6.4% 0.1% Cowboys 0.4 7.4 19.0% 27.3% 0.6% Panthers 0.2 9.8 17.7% 69.1% 1.2% Chiefs -0.3 6.7 2.5% 9.3% 0.1% Giants -0.4 8.1 26.8% 37.6% 0.4% Chargers -1.4 7.5 7.5% 14.5% 0.2% Vikings -1.4 7.5 3.8% 20.8% 0.1% Rams -1.4 7.5 3.7% 23.1% 0.2% Titans -1.5 6.8 10.2% 12.6% 0.1% Saints -2.5 6.3 0.4% 4.4% 0.0% Redskins -2.6 6.4 5.5% 9.8% 0.0% Dolphins -2.8 5.5 0.1% 1.1% 0.0% Browns -2.8 6.0 1.1% 3.4% 0.0% Lions -3.2 5.2 0.2% 1.6% 0.0% Texans -3.7 5.3 2.5% 3.1% 0.0% 49ers -5.3 4.7 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% Raiders -5.9 5.5 0.6% 2.0% 0.0% Bears -6.0 6.2 0.4% 3.8% 0.0% Jaguars -6.3 4.7 1.2% 1.5% 0.0% Buccaneers -7.5 5.3 0.1% 1.7% 0.0%

For a full explanation on how the FPI is put together, please read this explainer. For more background, you can also read this Q&A with the developers of the FPI.

Matchups to Watch in Week 6

Top Game: New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts

- Highest pregame matchup quality of the week (90.5 on 0-100 scale)

- Patriots: 59 percent chance to win (plus-3.3 predicted point difference)

- Patriots: At least 75 percent chance to win at the half in three of last four games versus Colts

Biggest tossup: Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

- Texans: 50.5 percent chance to win (plus-0.2 predicted point difference)

- Projected to be fourth-closest remaining game of the season

- Also lowest pregame matchup quality of the week

Biggest mismatch: San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers

- Packers: 78 percent chance to win (plus-10.4 predicted point difference)

- Packers: Holding opponents to NFL-low 23.4 Total QBR

Monday Night Football: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

- Eagles: 71 percent chance to win (plus-7.5 predicted point difference)

- Eagles: approximately 68 percent chance to make playoffs if they win, 38 percent chance if they lose

- Giants: approximately 60 percent chance to make playoffs if they win, 29 percent chance if they lose