Before Councillor Ana Bailao even knocks on a door, a resident stops her in her tracks to give her a hug. While canvassing, Bailao crouches down to pet the family dog, dotes on a chubby-cheeked toddler, puts an elderly woman at ease by chatting with her in Portuguese and charms another with her attempts at Italian.

Familiarity helps on the campaign trail. It’s a given, statistically, that incumbents from the federal to the municipal level fare better come voting time.

The 38-year-old Bailao faces 11 other candidates bidding to take her job in Davenport, Ward 18, which stretches from Dovercourt Rd. in the east to the train tracks west of Lansdowne Ave., and from just north of Dupont, tapering off south of Queen St. W. on Sudbury St.

Bailao has lived in the ward since she immigrated to Canada as a teen, entering the municipal arena as assistant to councillor Mario Silva in 1998. Her first run for office against Adam Giambrone was unsuccessful, but her 2010 effort landed her a seat with sway as a centrist on a deeply divided council. Her term was not without controversy — Bailao pleaded guilty to drunk driving after a night out at the Thompson Hotel in October 2012.

While she may be leaning on her track record and name recognition, her main competitor, 35-year-old Alex Mazer, says another four years with the rookie councillor could mean continued support for Ford policies.

“She’s supported the Ford agenda on a lot of instances where I would have voted differently,” said Mazer, citing her vote to scrap the vehicle registration tax as an example.

Mazer, a P.E.I.-raised, Harvard-educated lawyer, has positioned himself as the “progressive alternative” to the incumbent, although their campaign platforms are quite similar. Both promise to improve streetcar service, keep school board-owned land at Bloor and Dufferin in city hands and extend the West Toronto Railpath. Mazer says that might not be a coincidence.

“Her platform came out a month after mine, and frankly, a lot of the ideas sound very familiar because I think they are resonating,” Mazer said.

Affordable housing is one of the most pressing issues in the ward, which is in the midst of transition from a predominantly working-class Portuguese neighbourhood to an increasingly diverse area as young professionals have moved in.

“I really felt our community was changing too fast, and I wanted to have a representative that was going to be our voice at city hall,” said Bailao about why she decided to run in 2010.

She championed the issue of affordable housing citywide as chair of that committee, and points to her work developing 158 Sterling Rd. to include affordable units as part of her proven commitment to keep lower-income families in the ward.

The neighbourhood still has a lower average household income than the city as a whole — $67,392 versus $87,038, according to 2011 census figures — but the gap has narrowed since 2006. The ward is home to a larger percentage of people working in trades and arts and culture than seen across the city, but the number of tradespeople has dropped while arts and culture workers have risen slightly between 2006 and 2011.

One of the most notable changes over those five years is the nearly 13 per cent drop in first-generation immigrants living in the ward. A 2011 study on gentrification in the area by Robert Murdie and Carlo Teixeira found that, although gentrification appears to be pushing some well-established Portuguese immigrants into the suburbs, many stay so as to be close to Portuguese services and community. The authors found the real challenge was for newer immigrants who rent to be able to afford to stay in the area.

Not all residents are happy about how these changes are reflected on storefronts. Wendy Tancock is a designer who owns a home in the ward, and she’s concerned about Portuguese fruit and vegetable vendors being pushed out of Dundas St. W.

“It’s like Ossington — all of a sudden it’s all bars and restaurants,” Tancock told Mazer when he canvassed at her door mid-morning.

Mazer says the city hasn’t been proactive enough about managing development, noting that private developers have made a lot of money from projects that haven’t resulted in public good. He says the city needs to demand more from developers but also look at ways to fill municipal coffers without hurting low-income people and avoid simply asking other levels of government for money.

Mazer is running on a platform of “fiscal honesty,” underlining his experience as policy adviser for four years to provincial finance minister Dwight Duncan.

He recognizes he’s the underdog in the race, but remains optimistic — he says the public is itching for change.

“No one thinks council is working,” he said.

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