PlayerProfiler.com, Special to Yahoo Sports

By Zach Krueger

Since the release of Jeremy Maclin, Tyreek Hill’s value seems to have exploded given his elite speed and athleticism, and flashes of success in his 2016 rookie season. Football Twitter then went nuclear when Andy Reid declared Hill the team’s No. 1 receiver heading into 2017.

Wow Factor

Hill is an explosive player, no doubt. His ability in the return game is without question. That being said, strictly looking at Hill as an offensive player and viable fantasy option comes with a lot of unknowns and concerns, beginning with his 9.7 yards per reception, and 7.2 yards per target (No. 68) in 2016.

From an athletic profile standpoint, Hill projects as an elite player capable of making plays in space and turning the ball up field. His 4.34 40-yard dash time (98th-percentile), 133.4 Burst Score (94th-percentile), 10.59 Agility Score (98th-percentile) and 10.40 Catch Radius (94th-percentile) make him an athletic force to be reckoned with. However, Hill’s 19.4-percent (22nd percentile) College Dominator Rating is glaring red flag. In fact, Hill is one of only a handful of small-school receivers in the PlayerProfiler.com Database with College Dominator Rating below the 25th percentile.

Underwhelming Size and Target Depth

Unfortunately for Hill, his underwhelming size and limited route tree contributed to his poor yards per reception. As Anthony Amico (follow him on Twitter at @amicsta) points out on RotoViz, Hill is a player you need to avoid. Hill’s 5-foot-10, 185-pound frame diminishes his likelihood of a sustained breakout. The second-year receiver would enter unique territory should he reach the 1,000 receiving yards plateau, as only 20 wide receivers weighing 185 pounds or less have managed to achieve such a feat since 1997.

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In looking at recent yards per reception for Kansas City Chiefs receivers since Alex Smith took the reigns in 2013, one number stood out in rather glaring fashion. That stat being the lack of yards per reception receivers under Smith’s watch have produced. The lack of arm strength Smith possesses has never been a secret, and it’s more evident than ever when trying to find a receiver who truly stretched the field successfully with Smith at the helm.

Since 2013, no wide receiver for the Chiefs has posted higher than a 14.9 yards per reception, that player being Donnie Avery in 2013. Since that time, no Chiefs receiver with a minimum of 50 targets has achieved a YPR higher than 12.9 (Albert Wilson, 2015), and only one receiver has topped 1,000 receiving yards with smith under center (Maclin, 1,088 yards in 2014). Simply put, Smith does little in the way of supporting fantasy viable receivers, and in a league of 32 starting quarterbacks, ranked No. 33 in average attempt distance in 2016 with 6.8 yards.

We are also just two seasons removed from the 2014 season in which Chiefs receivers combined to catch approximately zero touchdown passes. While the lost season for Chiefs receivers should be viewed as a complete anomaly, there’s no denying it happened, and in a season where Smith played 15 games.

Hill commanded an impressive 83 targets last season, but his average target distance checked in at a meager 8.3 yards, the third lowest among Chiefs receivers. Hill’s low target depth also yielded little in return, as he averaged only 4.5 yards after catch. Hill’s lack of air yards was also alarming for a player who is now perceived to be taking over the top receiving slot in an already anemic pass offense, because air yards really matter.

To summarize, the Chiefs are now asking a gadget player who averaged 9.1 yards per reception in his only season at a major conference college program, posted a 19.4-percent College Dominator Rating at West Alabama in 2015, posted a 9.8 yards per reception and finished outside the top-75 in air yards as a rookie, to assume No. 1 WR duties in his second year in the NFL? This is the Peter Principle in action in the NFL. Kansas City is pushing Hill out of his depth and setting him up to fail spectacularly in his sophomore season.

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