Labour could win a million more votes than the Tories – and still not gain power A dramatic upheaval in Britain’s political landscape means that the Conservatives could receive one million fewer votes than Labour and […]

A dramatic upheaval in Britain’s political landscape means that the Conservatives could receive one million fewer votes than Labour and still win as many seats, a new study has concluded.

The analysis turns on its head the received wisdom that the electoral system is heavily weighted in favour of Labour.

It will fuel calls from centrist Labour MPs and Liberal Democrats for a “progressive alliance” to take on the Conservatives at the next election.

The i politics newsletter cut through the noise Email address is invalid Email address is invalid Thank you for subscribing! Sorry, there was a problem with your subscription.

The conclusions could also embolden supporters of proportional representation to press Jeremy Corbyn to put electoral reform on Labour’s agenda.

As recently as 2005, the Tories were considered to require 2m more votes than Labour to be biggest party at Westminster and to form the next government.

Snap election

That would all change if Theresa May called a snap election, according to an analysis by Prof John Maloney, an elections expert at Exeter University.

He concluded that the Conservatives and Labour would win the same number of seats in the Commons even if the Tories were four points behind in popular support – equivalent to 1.2m votes.

The turnaround in the electoral arithmetic is a result of large numbers of Labour supporters casting ‘wasted’ votes in constituencies where their candidate has little chance of winning, he said.

By contrast, Tory support is spread more evenly across England and Wales.

Tory position could be bolstered

Prof Maloney, an economist who publishes on electoral arithmetic, added that the Conservatives’ position would be further bolstered if the government presses ahead with moves to cut the number of MPs by 50 at the next election.

He said many of those who voted Labour in last year’s election voted tactically for the Lib Dems in 2010.

But their switch last year to Labour, although it increased the party’s share of the vote, did not translate into extra Labour MPs because the party remained in third or even fourth place.

Prof Maloney told i: “There used to be three factors working for Labour.

“Their constituencies were smaller and turnout in them was lower so they needed fewer votes to get an MP elected.

“That is still true, at least until the boundary changes that are coming up.

‘Wasted votes’

“But the biggest reason for the pro-Labour bias was that Labour was good at not wasting its votes in seats it was never going to win.

“Unfortunately for them, they now waste more votes than the Tories.

“Last year they went from winning most of the seats in Scotland to piling up hundreds of thousands of votes in places where they still lost.”