Back in early February, I unfurled a very rough set of F/+ projections for the 2012 season, based entirely on recent history, recruiting rankings and returning starter numbers. The starter numbers are still in flux, and we have yet to take draft points and other factors into account. But since Brian Fremeau and I have begun working on the official F/+ projections (the last version was just me tinkering), which actually include rough estimates for the four FBS newcomers, I thought I would share the rough draft from which we are currently working.

Below is a table showing you the up-to-date projections, along with their comparison to the rankings I came up with in February. The new rankings are good for Boise State and Wisconsin and bad for Rutgers and Ole Miss. And Tennessee, with eleventy billion returning starters, still clings to a Top 25 spot.

We still have no idea what to make of Oklahoma State, or, for that matter, Georgia, now that half their defense has been suspended for portions of September. (And Baylor is still going to drop when RGIII gets drafted.)

Team Conference New Proj. F/+ Rank February Rk Change Alabama SEC +37.2% 1 1 0 LSU SEC +32.8% 2 2 0 Oklahoma Big 12 +27.4% 3 4 1 Oklahoma State Big 12 +26.8% 4 3 -1 Oregon Pac-12 +23.3% 5 7 2 USC Pac-12 +21.2% 6 5 -1 Georgia SEC +20.3% 7 10 3 Florida State ACC +19.1% 8 6 -2 Stanford Pac-12 +19.0% 9 11 2 Texas Big 12 +18.4% 10 9 -1 Notre Dame Independent +16.9% 11 12 1 Michigan Big Ten +16.8% 12 8 -4 Florida SEC +16.3% 13 14 1 Arkansas SEC +15.2% 14 15 1 South Carolina SEC +15.1% 15 19 4 Texas A&M SEC +15.0% 16 13 -3 West Virginia Big 12 +14.7% 17 23 6 Wisconsin Big Ten +14.7% 18 30 12 Michigan State Big Ten +14.6% 19 17 -2 Ohio State Big Ten +14.4% 20 16 -4 TCU Big 12 +13.9% 21 22 1 Virginia Tech ACC +13.8% 22 27 5 Tennessee SEC +12.0% 23 20 -3 Nebraska Big Ten +11.9% 24 18 -6 South Florida Big East +11.6% 25 31 6

Full list, as always, after the jump.