You've only got to put up with me for four more months

FOR José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Spain's unpopular prime minister, it was a question of what would be less painful—early elections in November, or at their expected date in March 2012.

Today, although his Socialist Party is still languishing behind Mariano Rajoy's conservative People's Party (PP) in the polls, he chose to shorten the suffering. Spain will hold a general election on November 20th.

Two figures sum up the dilemma Mr Zapatero found himself in. New unemployment data show that in the second quarter of 2011 the number of Spanish jobless dropped only slightly, to 21%, despite a busy tourism season as European holidaymakers shunned unsettled north African countries. That is still the worst rate in the European Union. It may get worse still towards the end of the year, as seasonal jobs disappear.

Spain remains in the front line of the euro zone's debt crisis. Yesterday the spread on Spanish sovereign debt over German benchmark bonds reached 340 points, confirming that last week's euro-zone summit, which agreed a second bail-out for Greece, did not mark an end to the single currency's problems. This morning Moody's, a ratings agency, warned it might soon downgrade Spanish debt.

Some analysts had suggested that calling an early election could help reduce pressure on Spanish debt. A recent editorial in the Socialist-friendly newspaper El País urging an early poll may also have had some influence on Mr Zapatero's thinking.

His final decision will have been made jointly with Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, who will lead the Socialists into these elections after Mr Zapatero said earlier this year that he would not seek a third term in office.

This week a poll from the state-run Centre for Sociological Investigation (CIS) indicated that Mr Rubalcaba had begun to eat into Mr Rajoy's lead, cutting it from ten percentage points to seven. If such a result were repeated at the election, Mr Rajoy would find himself at the helm of a minority government.

He would have little trouble finding parliamentary support from business-friendly nationalist parties in Catalonia and the Basque country. But without a majority he might find it harder to enact major reforms to Spain's sluggish economy.

Mr Zapatero today said he aimed to complete his own set of reforms by September 26th and would pass new deficit-busting measures in mid-August. An early vote, he claimed, would help bring “political and economic certainty” to the fourth biggest economy in the euro zone. Many fear that if Spain were to follow Greece, Ireland and Portugal into an international bail-out, it could be enough to bring down the euro.

The question of what a PP government would do in office remains largely unanswered. Mr Rajoy wants to cut business taxes to generate growth and jobs, but must also meet tough budget-deficit targets. This year the aim is to bring down the deficit from 9.2% of GDP to 6%; next year the target is 4.4%.

So where will Mr Rajoy make the savings? "I do not intend to make social cuts," he said this morning. He wants to avoid scaring voters, but it is now time for the man who looks likely to be Spain's next prime minister to give them a clearer idea of what they can expect from him.