With five rounds of the AFL season behind us, very little has been cleared up by what has been shown on the field. At this early stage, the competition appears more even than ever, with no side undefeated or winless, and any team potentially competitive with any other on their given day. Despite all the distractions and noise around the game, the onfield contest is in good shape for fans.

One thing that can perhaps be shown is the players that have shown the most improvement so far this year and by contrast those who have fallen from the heights of last year, according to Player Approximate Value.

The Improvers

Player TM 2018 Off 2018 Def 2018 Mid 2018 Total 2019 Off 2019 Def 2019 Mid 2019 Total Total Improvement Weitering, Jacob CA -1.049 0.251 -0.863 -0.554 -0.895 1.933 -0.696 0.114 0.668 Worpel, James HW 0.025 -0.741 0.532 -0.061 0.246 -0.205 1.635 0.559 0.620 Marshall, Rowan SK 0.216 -0.411 -0.213 -0.136 0.550 -0.374 1.203 0.460 0.596 Brown, Nathan SK -1.025 0.514 -0.819 -0.443 -0.984 2.256 -0.900 0.124 0.567 Walters, Michael FR 1.104 -0.585 0.345 0.288 1.964 -0.229 0.747 0.827 0.539 Whitfield, Lachie GW -0.202 0.702 0.123 0.208 0.245 0.872 1.108 0.742 0.534 Newnes, Jack SK 0.239 -0.261 0.015 -0.002 0.149 0.659 0.735 0.514 0.516 Boak, Travis PA 0.351 -0.407 0.380 0.108 0.174 -0.364 2.026 0.612 0.504 Mackay, David AD -0.465 0.224 -0.234 -0.158 -0.044 0.694 0.337 0.329 0.487 Burton, Ryan PA -0.729 0.336 -0.355 -0.249 -0.350 0.850 0.207 0.236 0.485 Bowes, Jack GC -0.478 0.097 -0.322 -0.234 0.065 -0.141 0.805 0.243 0.477 Davies-Uniacke, Luke NM -0.644 -0.704 -0.313 -0.554 0.212 -0.674 0.218 -0.082 0.472 Bontempelli, Marcus WB 0.794 -0.139 1.055 0.570 0.308 0.144 2.655 1.035 0.465 Moore, Darcy CW -0.504 0.683 -0.754 -0.192 -0.902 2.385 -0.694 0.263 0.455 McGrath, Andrew ES -0.586 -0.034 -0.356 -0.325 0.386 0.132 -0.145 0.124 0.449 Hopper, Jacob GW -0.153 -0.474 0.609 -0.006 0.123 -0.321 1.505 0.436 0.442 Taberner, Matthew FR 0.577 -0.722 -0.304 -0.150 1.612 -0.571 -0.204 0.279 0.429 Wines, Ollie PA -0.141 -0.414 1.238 0.228 0.502 -0.655 2.101 0.650 0.422 Newman, Nic CA -0.500 0.502 -0.300 -0.099 -0.526 2.060 -0.571 0.321 0.420 Jones, Zak SY -0.387 0.614 -0.326 -0.033 -0.040 0.148 1.017 0.375 0.408

There’s a few familiar names on this list, along with some that are a bolt from the blue. Immediately, some common themes emerge from the players listed – so let’s have a look at them.

Note: Minimum 5 games in 2018, minimum 2 games in 2019. Data current to end of round 5, 2019.

The touted draftees

Jacob Weitering, Jack Bowes, Darcy Moore, Jacob Hopper, Luke Davies-Uniake, Andrew McGrath

If you are in a pool with your friends about the players most likely to improve next year, tab the early draft picks who have underperformed to date. While some draftees turn out to be overwhelming busts, a lot of them just struggle to find the right opportunity to impact games immediately.

The list of the top 20 improvers contains six former top ten draftees under the age of 23, including Jacob Weitering, a former number one pick. There’s a fair sprinkling of key position players in this mix, along with physical, ball winning midfielders – positions that often require a more mature body and some experience to truly impact games.

The next level

Michael Walters, Lachie Whitfield, Travis Boak, Marcus Bontempelli, Ollie Wines

Sometimes a player who is good, great or even “elite” makes a jump in their game to the true top tier of the competition – either for the first time or a return.

These five have elevated their games in 2019, and have been somewhat responsible for the improved fortunes of their respective clubs so far. Boak and Wines have been prime movers in the growing faith of finals for Power fans, and their play has been stellar to date.

At GWS, Whitfield has moved back into a more midfield/utility role after a year as a rebounding defender where he was covering for Williams/Wilson/Shaw, and his move has largely covered the loss of Shiel alongside with the development of some young Giants. For the Dogs, Bontempelli has been wasteful in front of goals but stellar elsewhere, often a lone hand for a hot and cold side.

Finally, Michael Walters has continued his long improvement arc, and has been the key Docker so far this year. While others, such as Fyfe, have been important, Walters has been vital to their success, especially in their upset win over GWS last weekend.

The (less) heralded youth (ish)

James Worpel, Rowan Marshall, Ryan Burton, Zak Jones

This group of four are all still on the younger side of 25, but sit a little outside the elite youth category of those listed above, and have not by any means become upper echelon stars of the competition like the previously discussed “next level” group.

All four have made a leap this year so far, and have established themselves in new roles. Marshall has moved into the ruck, Jones to the midfield, Burton to Port Adelaide’s half back line, and Worpel has stepped deeper into the core midfield rotation in the absence of injured Brownlow Medallist Tom Mitchell. They’ve provided a new glimpse at the players that they could become in the future.

The mid-late career flashes

Jack Newnes, Matthew Taberner, Nathan Brown, David Mackay

Consider this to be the most unexpected or unpredictable players to be on such a list. Brown and Newnes have stepped into big roles for the surprising St Kilda, with Brown largely masking over the absence of Jake Carlisle. David Mackay, often the most maligned of Crows players, has had a solid start for the year, despite Adelaide’s up and down start.

The most surprising of these players is probably Matt Taberner – probably fifth on the Freo KPF depth chart to enter this season. With injuries to Cox, Darcy and Sandilands early in the year, and Lobb being deployed into the ruck, Taberner has gotten yet another shot up forward. To date, the early results have been promising, but this isn’t the first time he has been in this spot.

Most improved at your club

Of course, not all clubs have been covered by the list of 20 above. Here’s the top three most improved players at every club.

Player TM 2018 Off 2018 Def 2018 Mid 2018 Total 2019 Off 2019 Def 2019 Mid 2019 Total Total Improvement Mackay, David AD -0.465 0.224 -0.234 -0.158 -0.044 0.694 0.337 0.329 0.487 Betts, Eddie AD 0.993 -0.739 -0.224 0.010 1.738 -0.704 -0.019 0.338 0.328 Atkins, Rory AD 0.143 0.056 -0.009 0.063 -0.044 0.546 0.407 0.303 0.240 McCluggage, Hugh BL 0.089 -0.267 0.019 -0.053 1.055 -0.503 0.493 0.349 0.402 Rich, Daniel BL -0.441 0.628 -0.185 0.000 -0.315 0.979 -0.015 0.216 0.216 Berry, Jarrod BL 0.253 -0.452 0.494 0.098 0.674 -0.426 0.550 0.266 0.168 Weitering, Jacob CA -1.049 0.251 -0.863 -0.554 -0.895 1.933 -0.696 0.114 0.668 Newman, Nic CA -0.500 0.502 -0.300 -0.099 -0.526 2.060 -0.571 0.321 0.420 Petrevski-Seton, Sam CA -0.398 -0.491 -0.316 -0.402 -0.184 -0.178 0.319 -0.014 0.388 Moore, Darcy CW -0.504 0.683 -0.754 -0.192 -0.902 2.385 -0.694 0.263 0.455 Adams, Taylor CW 0.100 -0.204 1.615 0.504 0.260 0.127 1.858 0.748 0.244 Mihocek, Brody CW 0.991 -0.455 -0.392 0.048 1.219 -0.775 0.033 0.159 0.111 McGrath, Andrew ES -0.586 -0.034 -0.356 -0.325 0.386 0.132 -0.145 0.124 0.449 McDonald-Tipungwuti, Anthony ES 0.596 -0.651 0.058 0.001 1.849 -0.753 0.034 0.376 0.375 Shiel, Dylan ES 0.192 -0.212 0.902 0.294 0.336 -0.368 1.630 0.533 0.239 Walters, Michael FR 1.104 -0.585 0.345 0.288 1.964 -0.229 0.747 0.827 0.539 Taberner, Matthew FR 0.577 -0.722 -0.304 -0.150 1.612 -0.571 -0.204 0.279 0.429 McCarthy, Cam FR 0.654 -0.807 -0.519 -0.224 1.669 -0.930 -0.351 0.129 0.353 Bowes, Jack GC -0.478 0.097 -0.322 -0.234 0.065 -0.141 0.805 0.243 0.477 Fiorini, Brayden GC -0.098 -0.213 0.201 -0.037 0.021 0.370 0.723 0.371 0.408 Wright, Peter GC 0.101 -0.260 -0.667 -0.276 0.914 -0.154 -0.422 0.113 0.389 Stewart, Tom GE -0.745 2.014 -0.520 0.250 -0.617 3.051 -0.468 0.656 0.406 Rohan, Gary GE 0.144 -0.592 -0.355 -0.268 1.629 -0.709 -0.531 0.130 0.398 Dahlhaus, Luke GE -0.403 -0.504 0.362 -0.182 0.780 -0.365 0.186 0.200 0.382 Whitfield, Lachie GW -0.202 0.702 0.123 0.208 0.245 0.872 1.108 0.742 0.534 Hopper, Jacob GW -0.153 -0.474 0.609 -0.006 0.123 -0.321 1.505 0.436 0.442 Finlayson, Jeremy GW -0.638 0.902 -0.648 -0.128 1.222 0.229 -0.621 0.277 0.405 Worpel, James HW 0.025 -0.741 0.532 -0.061 0.246 -0.205 1.635 0.559 0.620 OMeara, Jaeger HW 0.079 -0.213 1.267 0.378 0.590 -0.051 1.802 0.780 0.402 Henderson, Ricky HW 0.113 -0.253 0.203 0.021 0.817 -0.232 0.520 0.368 0.347 Harmes, James ME -0.005 -0.270 0.780 0.168 0.384 -0.677 1.368 0.359 0.191 Brayshaw, Angus ME 0.213 -0.108 1.497 0.534 0.550 -0.491 1.771 0.610 0.076 Melksham, Jake ME 1.075 -0.703 0.238 0.203 1.314 -0.724 0.039 0.210 0.007 Davies-Uniacke, Luke NM -0.644 -0.704 -0.313 -0.554 0.212 -0.674 0.218 -0.082 0.472 Turner, Kayne NM -0.274 -0.589 -0.433 -0.432 0.423 -0.840 -0.259 -0.225 0.207 Hall, Aaron NM -0.521 0.414 -0.273 -0.127 0.265 -0.473 0.269 0.020 0.147 Boak, Travis PA 0.351 -0.407 0.380 0.108 0.174 -0.364 2.026 0.612 0.504 Burton, Ryan PA -0.729 0.336 -0.355 -0.249 -0.350 0.850 0.207 0.236 0.485 Wines, Ollie PA -0.141 -0.414 1.238 0.228 0.502 -0.655 2.101 0.650 0.422 Higgins, Jack RI 0.239 -0.524 0.019 -0.089 0.848 -0.215 0.311 0.315 0.404 Cotchin, Trent RI -0.071 -0.311 1.594 0.404 0.097 -0.467 2.121 0.584 0.180 Rioli, Daniel RI 0.359 -0.692 -0.123 -0.152 0.721 -0.516 -0.212 -0.002 0.150 Marshall, Rowan SK 0.216 -0.411 -0.213 -0.136 0.550 -0.374 1.203 0.460 0.596 Brown, Nathan SK -1.025 0.514 -0.819 -0.443 -0.984 2.256 -0.900 0.124 0.567 Newnes, Jack SK 0.239 -0.261 0.015 -0.002 0.149 0.659 0.735 0.514 0.516 Jones, Zak SY -0.387 0.614 -0.326 -0.033 -0.040 0.148 1.017 0.375 0.408 Jack, Kieren SY 0.085 -0.671 0.097 -0.163 0.882 -0.297 -0.285 0.100 0.263 Florent, Oliver SY -0.156 -0.207 -0.074 -0.146 -0.144 -0.130 0.347 0.025 0.171 Bontempelli, Marcus WB 0.794 -0.139 1.055 0.570 0.308 0.144 2.655 1.035 0.465 Daniel, Caleb WB -0.420 -0.099 -0.172 -0.230 -0.763 1.137 0.025 0.133 0.363 Dickson, Tory WB 0.080 -0.740 -0.520 -0.394 0.461 -0.792 -0.167 -0.166 0.228 Venables, Daniel WC -0.042 -0.804 -0.500 -0.449 -0.065 -0.192 0.113 -0.048 0.401 Sheed, Dom WC -0.058 -0.454 0.929 0.139 0.612 -0.339 1.027 0.433 0.294 Sheppard, Brad WC -0.674 0.930 -0.593 -0.113 -0.799 1.536 -0.578 0.053 0.166

The few who have (temporarily) fallen

HPN takes no real pleasure in pointing out those who have slid the most year on year, but in this exercise it is fair to briefly mention those who aren’t living up to their high standards of a year ago.

Player TM 2018 Off 2018 Def 2018 Mid 2018 Total 2019 Off 2019 Def 2019 Mid 2019 Total Total Improvement McDonald, Tom ME 1.800 -0.415 -0.035 0.450 -0.215 -0.667 -0.588 -0.490 -0.940 Westhoff, Justin PA 0.849 0.397 0.405 0.550 0.090 -0.276 -0.305 -0.164 -0.714 Gibbs, Bryce AD 0.458 -0.159 1.301 0.534 -0.548 -0.141 0.261 -0.143 -0.677 Wingard, Chad HW 1.028 -0.432 0.884 0.493 0.990 -1.030 -0.257 -0.099 -0.592 Shaw, Heath GW -0.852 2.286 -0.417 0.339 -0.805 0.750 -0.645 -0.233 -0.572 Kolodjashnij, Kade ME -0.629 1.225 -0.502 0.032 -0.380 -0.621 -0.613 -0.538 -0.570 Franklin, Lance SY 3.130 -0.712 -0.107 0.770 2.036 -0.904 -0.498 0.211 -0.559 Lyons, Jarryd BL 0.079 -0.276 1.145 0.316 -0.416 -0.709 0.432 -0.231 -0.547 Sinclair, Callum SY 1.070 -0.015 0.768 0.608 0.499 -0.545 0.241 0.065 -0.543 Martin, Dustin RI 1.129 -0.696 1.982 0.805 0.519 -0.785 1.092 0.276 -0.529

Note: Excludes players injured mid-match

A majority of this group had career best years in 2018, some have been affected by injury in preseason or during 2019, and most should be expected to improve as the year progresses.

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