MQO Research spoke with 400 residents of Prince Edward Island to gauge the political temperature in the province for the Spring edition of our quarterly political poll: Atlantic Matters.

Provincial Politics

According to the latest polling numbers, the Green Party are leading heading into next week’s election. Among decided and leaning voters:

Support for the Green Party jumped 6 percentage points to 40%.

Support for the PC Party held steady at 29%.

Support for the Liberal Party dropped 7 percentage points to 26%.

NDP support was relatively unchanged at 3%.

The undecided / no vote group dropped 14 percentage points to 25% with the election just days away.

“We are only days away from election day and support is breaking in favour of the Green Party,” said Stephen Moore, Vice President at MQO. “They are tied or leading in every region of the province and among almost every demographic group.”

“If this trend holds, we are heading for a historic night in Canadian politics.”

Leader Preference

Green Leader Peter Bevan-Baker is polling ahead of his party with 53% of voters naming him as best choice for Premier. Wade MacLauchlan (Liberal) and Dennis King (PC) each garnered 21% of support while Joe Byrne of the NDP was last at 4%.

“This election is being driven by leader preference,” said Moore. “Bevan-Baker is leading among every demographic group and in every region.”

Referendum

When asked about their opinion on the referendum question; 47 percent of Prince Edward Island residents said they would vote yes in the referendum; 35 percent would vote no; and 18 percent didn’t know how they would vote.

“Supporters of the NDP and Greens were the most likely to vote yes,” said Moore. “This referendum is simply too close to call.”

Government Performance

The mean rating for the leadership of Premier Wade MacLauchlan was down marginally this quarter dropping from 5.2 to 5.0 (on a 10-point scale).

Provincial Outlook

Islander’s view on the outlook for the province was less positive in April. 19 percent of Islanders reported the outlook over the past three months had improved, down from 25% last quarter. Meanwhile, 52% felt things had stayed about the same (on par with January) and 25% said the outlook had gotten worse (up from 19% last quarter).

The Atlantic Matters poll was conducted by telephone from April 11th to April 16th, 2019 and included 400 randomly selected eligible voters from across the province. The margin of error for the total sample is ± 4.9 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

MQO Research is one of Atlantic Canada’s leading market research firms, providing research insights to clients throughout the region and beyond. Our team includes experts in quantitative and qualitative methodologies and program evaluation. As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), MQO subscribes to the highest standards of information gathering and research ethics in the industry in Canada.

For more information on Atlantic Matters or MQO Research, contact:

Stephen Moore – Vice-President

smoore@mqoresearch.com

Cell: 902-210-5379

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