October 18, 2018 - Cuomo Dominates New York Gov Race With 23-Point Lead, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gillibrand Has Big Lead Over Little-Known Challenger

PDF format

Sample and Methodology detail



A 6-1 lead in New York City overcomes a shortfall upstate as New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, the Democratic incumbent, tops Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, the Republican challenger, 58 - 35 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.





While 5 percent of New York State likely voters are undecided, 13 percent of voters who do name a candidate say they might change their mind by November 6, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.





Gov. Cuomo benefits from a 62 - 30 percent lead among women and 54 - 40 percent support from men.





The Democrat leads 77 - 13 percent among New York City likely voters. Cuomo gets 52 percent of suburban voters to Molinaro's 45 percent. Upstate likely voters go to the Republican 52 - 41 percent.





Cuomo leads 88 - 6 percent among Democrats and 54 - 38 percent among independent voters. Republicans back Molinaro 81 - 13 percent.





White voters go 48 percent for Cuomo and 46 percent for Molinaro. Non-white voters back Cuomo 77 - 15 percent.





Likely voters give Cuomo a 51 - 40 percent favorability rating. Molinaro gets a 28 - 22 percent favorability, with 48 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.





"Besides running in a deeply blue state against Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a two-term incumbent with a big advantage in campaign funds, the lack of name recognition for Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro is a huge hurdle to overcome in less than three weeks until Election Day," said Mary Snow, polling analyst for the Quinnipiac University Poll.





"In a campaign where Gov. Cuomo continues to hammer President Donald Trump and his policies, Molinaro also has the challenge of running in a state where Trump has a 37 percent job approval rating," Snow added.





Health care is the most important issue in deciding how they will vote for governor, 17 percent of New York State likely voters say, as 16 percent list taxes and 15 percent say the economy, with 13 percent each for education and immigration.





U.S. Senate Race





In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tops Republican challenger Chele Farley 58 - 33 percent, leading among both men and women.





While 8 percent of likely voters are undecided, 15 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind by Election Day.





Sen. Gillibrand gets a 48 - 29 percent favorability rating. For Farley, 66 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion.





"As U.S. Senate elections are being closely watched in battleground states, some New Yorkers may be surprised to know there is a Senate race here, as Chele Farley, the Republican challenger to Democrat Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, is largely unknown," Snow said.





President Trump's Job Approval





New York State likely voters disapprove 60 - 37 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing. Disapproval is 73 - 22 percent in New York City and 54 - 46 percent in the suburbs. Upstate voters are divided as 49 percent approve and 48 percent disapprove.





From October 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 852 New York likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points, including the design effect.





The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.





Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll





Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.





1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Marc Molinaro the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Andrew Cuomo the Democrat or more toward Marc Molinaro the Republican?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Cuomo 58% 13% 88% 54% 54% 62% 54% 40% Molinaro 35 81 6 38 40 30 41 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 1 2 2 3 DK/NA 5 5 5 4 4 6 3 4 WHITE..... Non AREA............. Men Wom Wht Wht UpStat NYC Sub Cuomo 45% 51% 48% 77% 41% 77% 52% Molinaro 50 41 46 15 52 13 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 - 2 2 - DK/NA 2 5 4 8 4 8 3 WHITE................... COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE Men Wom Men Wom Cuomo 45% 63% 46% 34% Molinaro 50 32 51 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 5 DK/NA 3 4 1 7 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Cuomo 15% 10% 83% 91% 57% 52% Molinaro 82 81 9 5 40 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 - 1 6 DK/NA 1 9 8 4 2 6 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN HOW TO VOTE Q7............ Health Gun Econ Taxes Care Imgrtn Policy Eductn Envirmnt Cuomo 45% 31% 85% 44% 62% 73% 81% Molinaro 49 64 11 52 30 22 16 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - 8 2 1 DK/NA 5 5 4 5 - 2 2

1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Cuomo Molinaro Mind made up 84% 79% 92% Might change 13 17 7 DK/NA 3 4 1

2. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 51% 18% 77% 43% 47% 55% 47% 35% Unfavorable 40 79 15 44 45 36 49 56 Hvn't hrd enough 6 - 7 8 6 5 3 3 REFUSED 3 3 1 5 2 4 2 6 WHITE..... Non AREA............. Men Wom Wht Wht UpStat NYC Sub Favorable 37% 46% 42% 69% 35% 68% 48% Unfavorable 57 46 52 19 58 20 47 Hvn't hrd enough 3 2 3 11 3 10 2 REFUSED 2 5 4 1 5 1 3 WHITE................... COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE Men Wom Men Wom Favorable 39% 54% 35% 36% Unfavorable 56 42 59 53 Hvn't hrd enough 3 3 4 2 REFUSED 2 2 2 9 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Favorable 16% 19% 72% 80% 48% 38% Unfavorable 83 74 16 14 43 45 Hvn't hrd enough - 1 11 4 6 10 REFUSED 1 6 1 1 3 7

3. Is your opinion of Marc Molinaro favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 28% 58% 6% 34% 32% 24% 30% 36% Unfavorable 22 5 36 16 24 21 20 14 Hvn't hrd enough 48 34 55 48 43 52 48 46 REFUSED 2 2 2 3 1 3 2 4 WHITE..... Non AREA............. Men Wom Wht Wht UpStat NYC Sub Favorable 37% 28% 32% 21% 36% 17% 34% Unfavorable 20 15 18 31 16 29 19 Hvn't hrd enough 41 53 48 48 46 51 44 REFUSED 1 4 3 1 2 2 3 WHITE................... COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE Men Wom Men Wom Favorable 36% 25% 39% 32% Unfavorable 22 18 17 11 Hvn't hrd enough 41 55 42 51 REFUSED 1 3 1 6 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Favorable 61% 55% 9% 5% 33% 35% Unfavorable 6 4 39 35 20 10 Hvn't hrd enough 32 37 51 58 45 51 REFUSED 1 4 1 2 1 4

4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Chele Farley the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat or more toward Chele Farley the Republican?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Gillibrand 58% 18% 86% 53% 51% 65% 59% 40% Farley 33 78 5 39 40 27 36 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 8 3 9 8 9 7 5 6 WHITE..... Non AREA............. Men Wom Wht Wht UpStat NYC Sub Gillibrand 43% 59% 51% 71% 49% 71% 52% Farley 51 37 44 15 46 16 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 5 5 13 5 13 4 WHITE................... COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE Men Wom Men Wom Gillibrand 49% 68% 34% 45% Farley 46 27 57 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 5 5 8 4 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Gillibrand 18% 19% 80% 90% 51% 56% Farley 80 76 7 3 42 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 2 4 14 6 7 9

4a. (If candidate chosen q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q4.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q4 Tot Gillibrand Farley Mind made up 84% 80% 89% Might change 15 19 10 DK/NA 1 1 1

5. Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 48% 14% 69% 47% 42% 54% 54% 31% Unfavorable 29 68 6 30 37 21 34 46 Hvn't hrd enough 22 16 24 23 20 24 11 23 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WHITE..... Non AREA............. Men Wom Wht Wht UpStat NYC Sub Favorable 37% 51% 44% 55% 45% 53% 45% Unfavorable 46 31 39 11 40 15 37 Hvn't hrd enough 16 17 16 33 14 31 18 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WHITE................... COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE Men Wom Men Wom Favorable 46% 61% 26% 36% Unfavorable 42 26 52 40 Hvn't hrd enough 11 12 22 24 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Favorable 15% 13% 66% 72% 41% 53% Unfavorable 73 63 9 4 36 22 Hvn't hrd enough 11 22 25 24 22 24 REFUSED 1 2 - 1 1 1

6. Is your opinion of Chele Farley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 19% 40% 6% 20% 24% 15% 16% 29% Unfavorable 13 3 18 14 16 11 13 7 Hvn't hrd enough 66 56 75 63 59 73 70 61 REFUSED 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 3 WHITE..... Non AREA............. Men Wom Wht Wht UpStat NYC Sub Favorable 25% 18% 21% 14% 25% 11% 24% Unfavorable 12 9 10 19 12 14 15 Hvn't hrd enough 61 72 67 67 63 73 60 REFUSED 3 1 2 1 1 2 1 WHITE................... COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE Men Wom Men Wom Favorable 20% 12% 31% 27% Unfavorable 14 12 9 5 Hvn't hrd enough 66 75 55 68 REFUSED 1 1 5 1 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Favorable 40% 39% 10% 3% 22% 17% Unfavorable 4 3 25 15 16 13 Hvn't hrd enough 54 58 65 81 58 69 REFUSED 2 - - 1 3 2

7. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: the economy, taxes, health care, immigration, gun policy, education, race relations, or the environment?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Economy 15% 24% 8% 16% 18% 12% 18% 15% Taxes 16 23 7 20 19 12 17 24 Health care 17 9 24 14 13 22 17 17 Immigration 13 19 14 10 12 14 10 8 Gun policy 9 9 10 8 8 9 9 12 Education 13 8 16 14 14 12 10 13 Race relations 5 1 8 3 5 4 2 1 Environment 7 3 7 10 5 8 11 4 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 3 1 3 2 DK/NA 4 4 3 3 3 5 4 3 WHITE..... Non AREA............. Men Wom Wht Wht UpStat NYC Sub Economy 20% 14% 17% 11% 15% 13% 16% Taxes 22 18 20 7 20 10 19 Health care 13 21 17 19 17 18 16 Immigration 10 9 9 22 11 15 13 Gun policy 10 10 10 7 9 8 10 Education 12 11 11 16 9 16 13 Race relations 2 2 2 10 2 8 3 Environment 7 9 8 5 9 6 6 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 - 3 1 1 DK/NA 3 4 3 4 4 5 3 WHITE................... COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE Men Wom Men Wom Economy 23% 14% 15% 14% Taxes 22 13 23 24 Health care 13 20 12 23 Immigration 10 10 10 7 Gun policy 6 11 15 9 Education 8 12 16 10 Race relations 3 1 - 3 Environment 10 12 4 5 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 3 3 1 DK/NA 3 4 2 4 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Economy 22% 25% 9% 8% 21% 10% Taxes 23 23 11 4 23 17 Health care 2 17 17 29 15 12 Immigration 24 13 9 17 9 10 Gun policy 16 2 7 12 5 10 Education 9 6 27 10 8 20 Race relations - 2 13 5 1 4 Environment 2 5 3 9 11 9 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 1 - 3 1 3 3 DK/NA 1 7 2 4 3 4

8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?