I think of this tournament and I definitely do not think of the quality of the field that we are getting this week. This really is a blessing for dudes like me who actually want to watch swing season golf. Getting Rickie, Spieth (well by punishment), Bryson and Finau here is a something you don’t see that often. Also funny note, how we are putting Finau in that category.

So we head to TPC Summerlin in Vegas where it tends to be a birdie fest. Last year was an exception to that rule as winds were howling, but that does not seem to be an issue this year. This par 72 in high altitude values driving the ball far and scoring on the par 5s. In Patrick Cantlay’s win last year, he finished first in both Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Par 5 scoring. In addition to those stats, I favor great ball strikers over anything else this week. Past winners here include the aforementioned Patrick Cantlay, Ryan Moore, Kevin Na, Smylie Kaufman (YIKES!), and Webb Simpson. All of which are quality ball strikers.

So who’s winning…

The Degenerate Section

Here’s our oddsboard:

I’m leaving off the bottom just because if Wesley Bryan wins this tournament, I’ll eat my hat.

Rickie being that co-favorite Finau at 11/1. Oh how funny. My last blog about Xander spoke about how I don’t get the Rickie love from Vegas. Finau joins that category. Yes, both very talented, but what are the chances these guys really win. They just don’t do it. We saw Finau lead all of Saturday and Sunday in China, but just can’t finish it out. I’m not saying they can’t win, just can’t go near these odds. Spieth and Bryson coming in next at 12/1. I’m afraid to go near Spieth considering he is only here because he got in trouble for not playing enough tournaments last year. So does he really have motivation coming off a brutal season. Bryson just played the craziest stretch of his career. Those playoff wins plus a Ryder Cup, I just don’t know if this is a stage where he comes to the top. But who really knows with Bryson? T7 last year. Who knows? Webb and defending champ Cantlay are next. I’m going to pass and start my card with the next golfer. Gary Woodland at 18/1 is where I start my card. I love his current form combined with his ball striking ability that will of course bode well here. This season so far has been great for him, but even dating back to the end of last season he has been playing the best he ever has. Cameron Champ coming in at 33/1 has interest you. Coming off of a win last week where he led in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and putting is something that is truly an unbeatable formula. I love his game for this course, however winning last week I’m can’t see the rookie going 2 in a row. But hey, crazier things have happened. There are some interesting plays in the next bunch with Andrew Putnam, who played great last week at the WGC-HSBC, and Joaquin Niemann, who is everyone’s favorite “Next Big Thing”. My next play comes a little further down with Sam Burns at 66/1. Finished T3 last week at Sanderson with an absolutely abysmal week on the greens. This seems to be an event where anyone’s putter can get hot. Let’s hope that Burns figures that out while keeping up his lights out ball striking. At that number too, I will definitely look at his top 5 and/or top 10 odds. Austin Cook is next at 70/1. 80/1 at the time I got these odds, showing some of the love he is getting this week. Great putter combined with great form, 10 straight cuts, and a good performance in his rookie debut here last year. My last outright play this week with be JJ Spaun at 90/1. He, too, has seen his odds drop already this week and for good reason. Revenge factor after leading after rounds 2 and 3 last year. He is an elite ball striker who has seen his putter get VERY hot at time. T13 at CIMB to combine with this, Spaun may be my favorite play based on his odds and possibility to win. Like Burns, I will look for top 5 and top 10 odds for both Cook and Spaun. That will round out my card for out-rights.

Now here are some lower down guys who I will be playing top 10 on. Dylan Meyer, Kevin Streelman and Corey Conners. Meyer and Conners are form plays. Streelman is a course history play. With their outright odds ranging 125-100 to 1, I like the odds I will get for a top 10 for these guys.

Summary of card:

Outrights

Gary Woodland 18/1

Sam Burns 66/1 (also top 5)

Austin Cook 70/1 (also top 5)

JJ Spaun 90/1 (also top 5)

Top 10

Dylan Meyer

Corey Conners

Kevin Streelman

Let’s get this money!