Joy to the world fellow Pillagers!

Well, ok admittedly “joy” may not be at the top of your emotion list today given the beat down that our Raiders took on the chin in Arrowhead this past Sunday. Nevertheless, it still is my weekly job, no matter how painful, to give you some reason for optimism. Not for the draft, or for 2019, but for THIS season. The reality is that three games still remain and if this team can somehow dial in its 2016, Mojo its more likely than not that your 2017 Oakland Raiders would make the playoffs with a 9-7 record (56%).

Still, with all that said, I am not made of pure Kool-Aid. The billion-dollar question is can this team somehow conjure up some magic and win out. As always I will hold out hope and say that the answer to that question is a resounding ‘yes we can’…

In this week’s edition of the Playoff Pontificator, I will step through the ins and outs of what has to happen for the Raiders to make the playoffs as AFC West Champions.

As noted in last weeks PP, the best chance (by far) for the team to make the post season will be as a division winner, not as a wild card entrant. As such, any potential talk of wild card entry will be shelved until next week (assuming that possibility is still on the table). For now though lets talk AFC West championship pathways.

Before we begin in earnest, lets get rid of some unrealistic happy thoughts. A direct consequence of Sunday’s loss is that The Raiders lost all tiebreaker possibilities with the Chiefs. In a two or three-way (no Beech) tie at 8-8, the

Chiefs are your AFC West Champions. What’s a little bit crazy is how that reality comes about. Looking deeper into the NFL tiebreakers (see below), the key rule that comes into play here is Tiebreaker 5 aka “Strength of Victory”.

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

5. Strength of victory.

6. Strength of schedule.

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

9. Best net points in common games.

10. Best net points in all games.

11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

12. Coin toss

The NFL defines Strength of victory (SOV) as the composite win percentage of the opponents a team has beaten over the course of the regular season.

So far, through Week 14, Oakland has defeated 6 teams with a combined record of 31-46, giving the Raiders a .4026 SOV. In comparison, KC has a .5222 SOV (47-43), while LA’s SOV currently sits at .3407 (31-60).

Those early KC wins over NE and Philly really cemented their lead and there is no way for either the Chargers or the Raiders to catch the Chiefs with only three games remaining. The small silver (and black) lining is that Oakland would win the two-way 8-8 tiebreaker with LA.

However, for that to happen the Chiefs would need to lose their final three games and finish 7-9 (vs. LA, vs. Mia, @ Den). The Chargers would also have to lose at home versus the Jets in Week 16 for this scenario to play out. Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No. Mathematically speaking, the odds of the Raiders winning the AFC West at 8-8 currently sits at 1 in 25 (4%).

However, don’t give up hope just yet…

Things perk up considerably with the Raiders finishing the season at 9-7. Not only does that slim chance of a wild card berth get a bit less moribund (20% vs. 3%), but the odds of the team winning their 1st AFC Championship since 2002 jumps to 35% at 9-7.

Here is how that outcome would have to go down…

As before, the Raiders (or LA for that matter) cannot jump KC in any conceivable tiebreaker scenario. As such, KC must go 8-8 or worse. However, the good news at 9-7 is that the Raiders don’t have to be concerned with what LA does until they play them in Week 17. Of course having LA knock off KC next Sunday would be enormously helpful for the Raiders’ playoff aspirations since the Chiefs would then only “need to lose” one of their remaining 2 games (vs. Miami; at Denver).

So there you have it blog brethren. It is time to snap out of your post-Arrowhead depression. The obese chick has yet to sing (and with any luck, she never will)! Of course, such optimism will require Carr and co (along with this largely inept staff) to permanently wake up from their season-long slumber. This team simply needs to go on a three game winning streak. This is doable…and the first team that will fall victim to our newfound wrath will hail from Texas…

As always, I leave you with a little side nugget of truth to ponder…

This week’s TuckRoo’Foo’ishFact©

If any of the following outcomes come to pass on Sunday, the Raiders playoff’s chances will live to see week 16.

A Raiders’ win; a Chiefs loss; a Ravens loss; a Titans loss or a…Vikings loss (don’t ask).

Written by: Tuck’Roo Foo’