The centre-left ruling party’s candidate was tipped to win in the first round of elections but after a tight result, momentum is with challenger Mauricio Macri

If there were any remaining doubts that progressive governments in Latin America are on the defensive, they were shattered last night with the poor result of the ruling Peronist camp in the Argentinian presidential elections.

Argentina's presidential election headed for second round after no clear winner Read more

Daniel Scioli – the centre-left candidate endorsed by incumbent Cristina Fernández de Kirchner – was forced into a second-round runoff by his more market-orientated challenger Mauricio Macri from the Cambiemos (“Let’s Change”) bloc. For the first time in recent memory, the Front for Victory also lost control of the governorship of Buenos Aires province, which is home to one in four voters.

It was the worst night for the ruling camp since the Kirchners came to power in 2003 (Fernández succeeded her husband Néstor Kirchner in 2007; he died three years later).

The gleeful headlines in the Argentinian newspapers – most of which are anti-Kirchner – said it all: “Surprises,” exclaimed Clarín. “Macri triumphant,” proclaimed Perfil. “Commotion in Kirchnerismo,” screamed the tabloid Muy. “Electoral disaster for Kirchnerismo,” noted La Prensa.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Daniel Scioli speaks at his campaign headquarters on a disappointing election night. Photograph: Patricio Murphy/Rex Shutterstock

When the preliminary results were announced the previous midnight, swaths of the Argentinian chattering classes were stunned into silence. In the press room at the Scioli bunker, journalists exclaimed in disbelief at the numbers flashing up on the screen. Macri was initially ahead, and although his lead slipped as the count came in, he ended less than 2.5 points behind a favourite who had been forecast to win comfortably. Polls had suggested that Scioli was within striking distance of the 10-point lead needed for an outright first-round win. Only hours earlier, TV exit surveys had predicted he would be ahead by a “wide margin”. They were laughably wrong.

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Instead, he carries a far slimmer than expected majority into the second round and knows that he has a fight on his hands in key battlegrounds. Chief among them is Buenos Aires – a formerly Peronist stronghold that Scioli had run as governor. In arguably the greatest shock of the night, the race for his replacement was won by Macri’s opposition camp. The victor, María Eugenia Vidal, was ecstatic: “Today, we made the impossible possible. We are making history,” she said.

This was largely due to a misjudgment by outgoing president Fernández, who had imposed her unpopular cabinet chief Aníbal Fernández, no relation, as the ruling bloc candidate. As a result, the Peronists lost the most populous state in Argentina. They were also hammered in Córdoba, where Macri won almost half of the vote.

Ahead of the second round on 22 November, the momentum is now clearly with Macri, the son of Italian migrants, who went on to make a fortune in the construction industry and become the most successful president of Boca Juniors football club. “What has happened on this day changes the politics of this country,” he told cheering supporters, promising to work “morning, noon and night to earn [voters’] trust and demonstrate they made the right decision”.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Mauricio Macri, the Buenos Aires mayor and presidential candidate for the Cambiemos bloc, ran Daniel Scioli close in the first round of voting. Photograph: Juan Mabromata/AFP/Getty Images

The ruling camp, meanwhile, has to rethink its strategy. With the second-round campaign already under way, Scioli urged Peronists to demonstrate their traditional qualities of loyalty and indicated that he will try to reach out to unaffiliated voters. “United together, we will triumph,” Scioli declared in a rallying speech. “I call upon the undecided and independent voters to join this cause.” His aides, however, were clearly dismayed at the poor showing and said they would have to analyse and correct the weak points in their approach.

The third-placed candidate, Sergio Massa, a dissident Peronist who won 21% of the vote, could now play the role of kingmaker. Having proclaimed himself in favour of change, it is thought that he is leaning towards the opposition, but he has said he will retreat for several days, draw up a list of priorities and then enter into negotiations regarding which side to support.

Fernández, who maintains a high level of support despite a tumultous period in office, will also be a key figure thanks to her strong backing from the unions and social movements. Her son Máximo was elected as a representative for the first time and her sister-in-law and close confidante Alicia won the governorship of Santa Cruz province in Patagonia.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The third-placed candidate Sergio Massa could now be the kingmaker. Photograph: Xinhua/Rex Shutterstock

She and Scioli will have to address the mistakes they made in the past few weeks and months, but they might also feel they are running up against an adverse historical tide.

The regional situation has changed dramatically since the Kirchners entered the Casa Rosada presidential palace in 2003. That was around the peak of the so-called “pink wave” of populist leftwing leaders who took power in Latin America, including Hugo Chávez in Venezuela in 1998, Luíz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil in 2002, Evo Morales in Bolivia in 2005 and Rafael Correa in Ecuador in 2006.

For most of the past 10 years, they benefited from strong economies thanks to rising commodity prices and strong demand from China, which funded welfare expansions, job creation and poverty reduction policies. But a downturn and growing allegations of corruption and mismanagement have eroded support.

Most leftist administrations are still holding on, but only just. Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, who has struggled with street protests and the world’s highest inflation since the death of Chávez, faces tough parliamentary elections in December. Dilma Rousseff, who replaced Lula, is battling impeachment, scandal and recession. Ecuador has been racked with protests this summer and has slashed growth forecasts. Only Morales appears relatively unscathed.

In Argentina, the right are buoyant after last night’s upset. But the left are not out yet. The second-round campaign will be one of the greatest tests yet of the stamina of the progressive movement in Latin America.