According to Bloomberg, the members of Trump’s economic team who want to reach an agreement with China sooner rather than later have told him that doing so will “unleash a market rally” he can ride to a second term. Some investors say that’s not actually the case, though, and that a deal probably won’t have a major impact because, at this point, it’s already priced in. (Others say dragging this out indefinitely will roil the markets, and that “the risk could be more to the downside.”) There’s also some concern that Trump will agree to something—anything—just so he can claim victory without, as Senator Chuck Schumer warned, “achieving meaningful, enforceable, and verifiable structural reform to China’s trade policies.” So far, Trump’s “good, and easy to win” trade war has had the exact opposite effect he intended, contributing to a record trade deficit in 2018. Cutting a toothless deal now, as Schumer implied, would make the last year of pain largely for nothing—at least, as far as anyone who has a clue what they’re talking about is concerned.

The president, however, cannot be counted among that group, and, naturally, even an empty deal would likely be cast as a major victory by the White House. That would presumably be the case regardless of Tariff Man’s electoral predicament, but according to The New York Times, Trump is even more desperate than usual for a perceived win to buoy him in 2020:

. . . some people close to Mr. Trump have privately predicted that he will ultimately choose to seek a second term in part because of his legal exposure if he is not president. While there is no legal consensus on the matter, Justice Department policy says that a president cannot be indicted while in office.

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