Tesla unveils the Model Y tonight at 8PM PT. You can watch the stream here. The Model Y is important because entering the SUV/cross over market effectively doubles Tesla’s addressable market, but we caution it will likely take two years before the $39k model will be available. Most important, EVs are the future, and the Model Y is continued evidence that Tesla is the fastest-innovating EV company. Here are our expectations for tonight’s event:

Standard Model Y Specs:

$39,000 RWD (Jaguar I-PACE $69,500, Audi e-tron $74,800)

62 kWh battery pack (I-PACE 90 kWh, e-tron 95kWh)

230 EPA mile range (I-PACE 234 EPA, e-tron 220 EPA)

0-60 in 5.9 seconds (I-PACE 4.5 secs, e-tron 5.5 secs )

0.25 drag coefficient (I-PACE 0.29, e-tron 0.30).

187 inches long (I-PACE 184 inches, e-tron 193 inches)

Model Y shares 75% of the same parts as Model 3.

Availability:

Volume production likely a year and a half out.

A few hundred produced by the end of 2019, and volume production by end of 2020.

First configuration available end of 2019, start of 2020 will likely be long-range, RWD motor, $47k, 285m range.

The $39k version likely available spring of 2021.

Standard Model Y Pricing:

Likely to be RWD at $39,000. Long range dual motor likely at $51k. Our methodology uses Model 3 pricing as a guideline.

Model Y will be ~10% larger and ~10% more expensive.

Market:

In terms of units, SUV/cross over market is about 45% of US market, we estimate the mid-sized sedan market at 20%.

Reservations:

As a point of reference, Model 3 preorders the first week after the unveil was 325k, the peak was 455k.

We don’t expect Tesla to disclose reservation numbers given they’ll likely lag Model 3.

Our best guess is they’ll take in 175k reservations in the first two weeks (before the end of Mar-19).

Since lots of early adopter Tesla fans bought Model 3, we expect Model Y preorders to be significantly less Model 3.

Consumers are more negative on the value of preordering given volume production is likely a year and a half away, and the base model is likely 2 years out.

Deposits Cash Effect:

We expect 175k reservations in the first two weeks (before the end of Mar-19).

Deposit consensus is $1k, we expect it to be $2k for cash flow reasons. Model 3 was $1k, Model S was $2.5k, Model X was $5k.

We expect Mar-19 cash flow from reservations would be $350m ($2,000 times 175k orders). They may offer signature series deposit at a higher level.

“One Last Thing” – Model S & X Refresh:

Although Musk said on the Dec-18 earnings call that there are “no plans” for an S & X refresh, we believe it’s likely they’ll announce refresh models tonight.

Range increases by about 20%. Highest range Model S goes to 400 from 335 miles today. Model X goes to 350 from 295 miles today.

Faster charging. Average charge time at Tesla Supercharger likely 15 minutes, down from 30 minutes today. We expect a real-time Supercharger V3 demo.

Model S & X pricing likely to increase by about 5% for the highest range models.

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