Monsoon rainfall will be normal this year, the weather office said, which is great news for farmers and the economy in the midst of a long lockdown as two-thirds of the country depends on agriculture for livelihood and higher farm income boosts overall demand and business sentiment.“Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 100% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%,” the India Meteorological Department said in its keenly watched annual forecast for the rainy season.Farmers suffered a bad monsoon last year because rainfall was very uneven, starting very late and causing floods towards the end of the season, which ravaged farms."In this difficult time, due to coronavirus, IMD has some good news that the monsoon in 2020 will be normal," said M Rajeevan, secretary, ministry of earth sciences But analysts were cautious in their optimism. "It's a positive sign, but we should not get excited about it. Until we find the solution for the labour problem, a good monsoon will not be of much use," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE RatingsThe official forecaster's statistical model predicts a 61% chance at normal or above normal rainfall, while the probability of a ‘deficient’ rainfall comes in at 9%, Rajeevan said.The IMD has revised the normal onset and withdrawal dates for various parts of the country but its onset date in Kerala remains June 1. The withdrawal date from south India also remains unchanged at October 15."There are however appreciable changes in the monsoon withdrawal dates, especially over northwest and central India," said the IMD. ET had first reported about these changes in July last year.The new schedule delays the monsoon by 3-7 days for western and central India, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha , Jharkhand, Bihar and parts of Uttar Pradesh, compared to the earlier normal. However, in northwestern India, it is now scheduled to arrive a week earlier, on July 8 and withdraw 7-14 days later.“These new dates are relevant for many applications like agriculture, water and power management etc.,” the weather office said.The new long period average monsoon rainfall is 88 cm based on data from 1961 to 2010. Earlier, it was 89 cm, from data between 1951 to 2000.IMD and international forecasters say El Nino conditions are likely to remain neutral this year.The IMD said that it will give a detailed forecast for its 36 subdivisions in its second-stage forecast in the last week of May. This would also include the withdrawal dates for some of the southern states, which remain unspecified in the current briefing.