Article content continued

Under our electoral system, even the strongest win is likely to represent only about half of the voters in any riding. The trend in American punditry to talk about red states and blue states has naturally crept into Canadian political discourse, bringing with it a dangerous temptation to see polarization where there is only a difference in aggregate tendency.

A year ago, the received wisdom was that the creation of new suburban ridings, especially in the Greater Toronto Area, would be a boost to Conservative electoral chances. It seemed that short of a unite-the-left movement, the Conservative hold on power was becoming unshakeable, thanks to all the Tim Hortons drinkers in the burbs.

But the thing is, Glebites drive their kids to 5 a.m. hockey practice too. Some of the people most vested in the future of public transit in this city live in Orléans. There are plenty of hunters in this city’s large rural fringe; there are environmentalists, too, and often they’re the same people. The culture gap between urbanites and suburbanites isn’t neat and tidy in Ottawa, and it seems the ideological one isn’t either.

It was in Ottawa’s new Nepean riding, on Monday, where a crowd of hundreds showed up outside a Barrhaven strip mall for a Justin Trudeau rally. This should be solid blue territory, according to the narrative, and it’s not. According to the latest numbers from Environics for LeadNow, the Liberals are leading in that riding. And this is a riding that’s likely to reflect the national campaign more than the local one: neither Liberal Chandra Arya nor Conservative Andy Wang is a star candidate. If those numbers are right – and if the even wider Liberal lead in Kanata-Carleton is something more than a polling blip – we’ll have a narrative or two to rethink.