Stefanowski pulls ahead in new Hearst/Sacred Heart poll



Hearst Connecticut Media Group/Sacred Heart University Poll:

Stefanowski - 40 percent





Hearst Connecticut Media Group/Sacred Heart University Poll:

Stefanowski - 40 percent

Photo: Christian Abraham / Hearst Connecticut Media Buy photo Photo: Christian Abraham / Hearst Connecticut Media Image 1 of / 11 Caption Close Stefanowski pulls ahead in new Hearst/Sacred Heart poll 1 / 11 Back to Gallery

Republican Bob Stefanowski has inched ahead of Democrat Ned Lamont by 2.4 percentage points in the governor’s race, which remains a statistical tie heading into the final weekend before Election Day, the latest Hearst Connecticut Media Group/Sacred Heart University Poll finds.

The poll, which was released Thursday, shows that Stefanowski is now up 40 percent to Lamont’s 37.6 percent, with unaffiliated candidate Oz Griebel of Hartford at 9 percent.

Just over 12 percent of those surveyed remain undecided. Stefanowski gained a 5.8 percentage point swing over two weeks, the poll finds.

The landline and cell phone survey was conducted by GreatBlue Research, among 500 likely voters between Oct. 29 and 31, and has a margin of error of 4.32 percentage points for the full sample — larger for subgroups.

This is the fourth Hearst/Sacred Heart poll since Lamont and Stefanowski won their respective primaries on Aug. 14, and Stefanowski has advanced in the last two.

“While unaffiliated voters are supporting the Republican (43.6 percent), 20 percent of them are still undecided, and the race continues to be highly competitive,” said Lesley DeNardis, executive director of the Institute for Public Policy and director of Sacred Heart University’s master of public administration program. “High taxes, the state budget crisis and low economic growth continue to be the major factors the race will hinge on. Ultimately, the candidate the voters believe will do a better job of returning Connecticut to economic health, creating new jobs and offering more long-term solutions tied to improved quality of life and cost-of-living issues will prevail.”

“It's clear voters are rejecting Lamont's false attacks and scare tactics and they are rallying behind Bob Stefanowski's positive message of tax cuts, responsible government and stronger economic growth,” said Kendall Marr, Stefanowski’s spokesman.

“The only poll that counts is the one on Election Day and it's only five days away,” said Marc Bradley, Lamont’s campaign manager. “Bob Stefanowski has a reckless, Trump-like scheme to cut health care, decimate education and jack up property taxes across the state. This is someone who received an ‘A’ grade from the NRA because he would roll back Sandy Hook gun laws, gives Donald Trump an ‘A’ grade for job performance, opposes the Affordable Care Act, and questions the value of common-sense mandates on vaccinations for children in public schools.”

In the previous Hearst/Sacred Heart poll, conducted between Oct. 13 and 17, voters gave Lamont, a Greenwich investor, a 39.5 percent to 36.1 percent edge, 3.4 percentage points, over Stefanowski, a Madison consultant and former corporate executive. Both the new poll and the last one have been within the margin of error and show the two major-party candidates are locked in a close race.

Much of Stefanowski’s gains were among women, who in the earlier poll showed 50 percent support for Lamont. That has dropped to 40.8 percent, the new poll finds, with 34.8 for Stefanowski. Griebel’s support among women was 9.2 percent. Stefanowski leads among men, 45.2 percent to 34.4 percent, with 8.8 percent of male likely voters picking Griebel.

Unaffiliated voters support Stefanowski by 43.6 percent to 22.8 percent, similar to the 43.2 percent to 24 percent in the previous poll. Griebel clocked in at 12.1 percent of unaffiliated voters, and showing is stronger among Democrats than Republicans, indicating more of his voters might otherwise favor Lamont than Stefanowski.

On Monday, the Quinnipiac University poll found that Lamont held a 47-43 percent edge over Stefanowski, with 7 percent for Griebel, a former Hartford economic development executive. That survey contacted 1,201 likely voters from Oct. 22 to 28, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The top issues for voters contacted by the Hearst/Sacred Heart poll remain the “high overall tax burden” and the state budget crisis, each by 17.6 percent of those surveyed.

State voters who approve of President Donald Trump increased more than 3 percentage points over the previous poll, for a total of 38.4 percent.

While 48.2 percent of voters overall say they will support Democrats in the race for Congress, nearly 41 percent of unaffiliated voters support Republican congressional candidates compared to about 35 percent for Democrats.

The most recent state registration data shows there are 460,279 Republicans, 785,615 Democrats and 870,171 unaffiliated voters eligible to cast ballots on Election Day, Nov. 6.