POLL: Kelly Rebounds, McSally Treads Water Kelly Rebounds, McSally Treads Water Kelly Leading McSally by 10 in the Grand Canyon State PHOENIX (September 16th, 2020)- Former Astronaut Mark Kelly opened up a 10-point lead on Sen. Martha McSally in one of the most expensive and closely watched Senate races in the nation. According to a recent survey by OH Predictive Insights, Kelly earned the support of 52 percent of likely voters in an effort to finish the final two years of the late-Sen. John McCain’s term. In comparison, incumbent-Republican Martha McSally sits at 42 percent. The Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) – a tracking poll of Arizona likely voters – shows McSally closely tracking President Trump. Dating back to August 2019, OH Predictive Insights has polled both the Senate and Presidential races in Arizona eight times. This September survey is one of only two over that period not to show McSally underperforming Trump. “Sen. McSally’s barrage of attacks against Mark Kelly seemed to be working last month,’” says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. “However, Kelly is now deploying his vast war chest to fight back, which is boosting his fortunes.” Just last month, McSally appeared to be gaining ground against Kelly, narrowing her deficit in the race to only 5 points. The reason behind her brief improvement in August, followed by this September slide, can be explained by looking at the voting intentions of Independents in the state. As we pointed out in our August release, that month’s survey saw noticeable increases in “undecided” Independent voters and decreases in Kelly-supporting independents. Over the past month, however, it appears most of those tentative Kelly supporters have returned to his corner instead of moving further towards McSally. Another key to Kelly’s strong performance in these polls is his appeal to a small-but-important portion of Republicans. This poll finds that 15 percent of Republicans support Kelly over McSally, while just 6 percent of Democrats are supporting the Republican nominee over their own. Though these numbers may be disheartening for the McSally camp, looking at the broadcast spending totals in the Senate race shows both sides still believe this is a competitive race. This week (9/12 – 9/18) alone will see more than $6.5 million in ads plaster Arizona’s televisions and radios, according to the ad tracker, Medium Buying. In fact, McSally’s campaign and pro-GOP outside groups, like the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and the Senate Leadership Fund (run by allies of Mitch McConnell), were projected to outspend Kelly’s campaign and Democratic-aligned groups by almost $250,000 this week. “National GOP PACs have several seats to defend this cycle,” says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss, “If they thought McSally was a lost cause, they would be cutting bait, not investing in more ads.” ### Methodology: This poll was conducted as a blended phone survey 46.5% Live Caller/53.5% IVR. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from September 8th to September 10th, 2020, from an Arizona 2020 Likely Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 4.0%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Note: a change was made in the sampling methodology of the AZPOP between June and July 2020 to better reflect the state of Arizona’s voter composition. Media Contacts: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034 About OH Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online. About Medium Buying: Our name Medium is an homage to the fact that media and advertising has become incredibly complicated and fragmented over the last several years. It used to be broadcast TV, cable and radio – now it’s multiple platforms on an array of devices. Today, a good ad buying company is focused on getting powerful creative or content in front of their target audience regardless of the medium it takes to reach them.

POLL: Only 4 in 10 Arizonans Would Take COVID Vaccine Only 4 in 10 Arizonans Would Take COVID Vaccine Concern over Coronavirus hits 5-Month Low PHOENIX (September 15th, 2020)- As a vaccine for the Coronavirus becomes a reality, Arizonans are skittish about taking advantage of any panacea. According to OH Predictive Insights’ Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP), only two-in-five (38 percent) Arizona voters would take the vaccine even if it were offered to them for free. The monthly AZPOP survey also found that 38 percent of the likely voters in the state would refuse to take a vaccine, with nearly one quarter (23 percent) undecided. “The public is going to need some convincing to take a vaccine when the time comes,” says OHPI Chief Pollster Mike Noble. “Public officials from President Trump on down are going to have their work cut out for them, given that more than 60 percent of voters wouldn’t be ready to get the shot.” There are some encouraging signs, however. Those most at a heightened risk of being severely affected by the Coronavirus – namely, the elderly – are more willing to be vaccinated. Forty-three percent of those 55 and older would take a vaccine if they were offered it, while only 34 percent of those under the age of 55 would do the same. The origin of a vaccine influences whether people would be willing to take it. More than half of voters (54%) would be willing to take a vaccine that was developed and produced in the United States – including 34% of voters who would take the vaccine only if it was created in the US. More than one-quarter of voters would not be willing to take the vaccine even if it were developed within the country. Regardless of a vaccine, more voters expect the COVID situation to improve in the coming month. A combined 44 percent of likely voters expect the outbreak to get better, and 32 percent expect conditions to worsen. The partisan divide that has emerged around the Coronavirus has not disappeared; in fact, it has only widened. Seventy percent of Republicans are optimistic about the next 30 days, while just 36 percent of Independents and 20 percent of Democrats are. When looking at concern over the Coronavirus, the partisan nature of the debate becomes even starker. Almost 9 in 10 (87%) of Democrats are very concerned about the Coronavirus, a decrease of 1 percent since August. Republican concern, on the other hand, has fallen 11 points since August. Now, less than one-quarter of GOP voters say they are extremely or moderately concerned about the virus. Turning to state leadership, Gov. Doug Ducey’s approval rating continues to climb, after hitting its low in July – when Arizona was dealing with the peak of the Coronavirus outbreak. Now, 45 percent of the state’s likely voting electorate approve of the job Ducey is doing to combat COVID. The number is still far from its 59 percent record high set in June but is a significant increase from its 35 percent mark in July. ### Methodology: This poll was conducted as a blended phone survey 46.5% Live Caller/53.5% IVR. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from September 8th to September 10th, 2020, from an Arizona 2020 Likely Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 4.0%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Note: a change was made in the sample methodology of the AZPOP between June and July 2020 to better reflect the state of Arizona’s voter composition. Media Contacts: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034 About OH Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online.

POLL: Biden Extends Lead in Arizona Biden Extends Lead in Arizona Former Vice President Outspending Trump 10:1 on Arizona Airwaves PHOENIX (September 14th, 2020)- After a summer of improving numbers for Donald Trump, the President once again faces daunting odds in Arizona. According to the most recent Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP), Trump’s support has fallen to 42%, and former Vice President Joe Biden has risen to 52%. Biden’s 10-point lead is his largest in an AZPOP poll, and his 52% support matches his high watermark set back in April of 2020. The AZPOP is a monthly survey of likely voters in the state of Arizona conducted by OH Predictive Insights. This edition of the AZPOP also saw Trump lower than 43% the first time this cycle. “It is remarkable how steady Trump’s support has been. On his best day, Trump has been unable to crack 46 percent; on his worst, he hasn’t dipped below 43 percent,” says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble, “Until today.” Diving deeper into the results of this month’s survey reveals other troubling news for the Trump campaign. He now appears to be struggling with a core component of his 2016 base – older voters. In particular, older Republicans. “Whether it be his handling of the coronavirus pandemic or a recent spate of tell-all books, Donald Trump is turning off older voters,” says Noble. “Bringing this group of voters back into the fold is imperative if Trump hopes to keep Arizona in his column in November.” In March, before the COVID pandemic had fully hit Arizona, Trump had the support of 78 percent of Republicans 55 and older, with 14 percent were supporting Joe Biden. Now, only 69 percent of older GOP voters say they will vote for the President, while Biden’s support among the group has nearly doubled to 26 percent. Other than making in-roads with older Republicans, Joe Biden is improving his standing in the Grand Canyon State by winning the battle for the airwaves. According to data provided by the ad tracker, Medium Buying, in each of the last four weeks, dating back to August 15th, the Biden campaign has spent at least three times the amount that the Trump team has on broadcast advertisements. In three of those weeks, he outspent the Trump campaign at least 10 to one. That is not to say that viewers have not been exposed to any Pro-Trump messages. Over the same period, PACs supporting the President spent more than $3 million on broadcast advertisements. Pro-Biden PACs, by comparison, spent $824k. “Like nearly every other Presidential battleground state over the last month, Arizona has seen incredibly lopsided spending advantage in favor of Vice President Biden. The bottom line is: President Trump has been outspent over the last month, and it’s clearly having an impact on the race as we move from the summer into full-on fall campaign season,” said Founder and President of Medium Buying, Nick Everhart. ### Methodology: This poll was conducted as a blended phone survey 46.5% Live Caller/53.5% IVR. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from September 8th to September 10th, 2020, from an Arizona 2020 Likely Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 4.0%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Note: a change was made in the sampling methodology of the AZPOP between June and July 2020 to better reflect the state of Arizona’s voter composition. Media Contacts: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034 About OH Predictive Insights: As a nonpartisan market research, predictive analytics, and public opinion polling firm, Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling, and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online. About Medium Buying: Our name Medium is an homage to the fact that media and advertising has become incredibly complicated and fragmented over the last several years. It used to be broadcast TV, cable and radio – now it’s multiple platforms on an array of devices. Today, a good ad buying company is focused on getting powerful creative or content in front of their target audience regardless of the medium it takes to reach them.

Arizonans See the Light at the End of the COVID-19 Tunnel Arizonans See the Light at the End of the COVID-19 Tunnel Voters optimistic about the month ahead for the first time since April, increase approval for Ducey PHOENIX (August 13th, 2020)- As Arizona appears to be flattening the curve of the Coronavirus outbreak, voters anticipate the state’s fortunes will improve in August, according to a recent survey by OH Predictive Insights. The poll found 46% of likely Arizona general election voters expect the COVID-19 outbreak in Arizona to get better in the next 30 days. Less than one-third expect conditions to worsen. The poll also finds that, while voters are optimistic, it is very cautious optimism, as most of the state remains very concerned about the outbreak. Sixty-one percent of the electorate is still extremely or moderately worried about the spread of Coronavirus, a decrease of 6 points from last month. “For a virus which does not care about political party, ethnicity, religious affiliation or economic status, there remains an unusual partisan split in opinions on the virus,” says Mike Noble, OHPI Chief Pollster. “Republicans are consistently less concerned than Democrats and Independents on the issue.” The 6-point drop in high concern is almost entirely due to Republicans as a group becoming less worried about the outbreak. From July to August, Independents and Democrats each stayed at roughly the same level of concern – each decreased by 1%. Concern among Republicans, on the other hand, fell 12 points. In fact, this survey found that 46% of Republicans are slightly or not at all concerned about the pandemic — the highest share since March before it had fully hit the state. Another revealing split in levels of concern is that between younger and older voters. Even though those between the ages of 20 and 45 accounted for nearly half of Arizona’s COVID cases that age group was less likely to be concerned about the pandemic than voters 45 and older. In positive news for Governor Doug Ducey, approval among Arizonans of his handling of the Coronavirus has increased from its low point last month. The 6-point uptick in his handling of the virus was a result of Republicans and Independents warming again to the job he is doing. Democrats, however, are still largely unhappy with his actions. Ducey’s approval rating is still well below the peak he reached in April and June. Increased mask-wearing, a policy promoted by most of Arizona’s state and local officials, seems to have taken hold as well, which may be a source of Arizona’s decreasing COVID-19 cases. According to this AZPOP poll, 84% of voters in the state wear a mask all or most of the time when out and about. Regular mask-wearing is highest among Democrats (95%), those more concerned about the Coronavirus (95%), female independents (90%), and those 55 and older (87%). Those less concerned about the virus (55%), as well as Republicans (72%) and rural voters (78%), are least likely to report regularly wearing some type of face-covering when in public. ### Methodology: This poll was conducted as a blended phone survey 37.2% Live Caller/ 62.9% IVR. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from August 3rd to August 4th, 2020 from an Arizona 2020 Likely Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. The sample size was 603 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.0%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Note: a change was made in the sample methodology of the AZPOP between June and July 2020 to better reflect the state of Arizona’s voter composition. Media Contacts: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034 About OH Predictive Insights: Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online.

McSally Closes in to Striking Distance Against Kelly McSally Closes in to Striking Distance Against Kelly Kelly now leading by only 5 PHOENIX (August 11th, 2020)- Martha McSally continues to narrow the gap in the Arizona Senate Race against Democrat Mark Kelly, according to a poll by OH Predictive Insights. According to the most recent Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) – a monthly tracking survey of Arizona likely voters– McSally now trails the former Astronaut by 5 percent. This continues a trend of the Senator slowly but surely making up ground over the course of the past few months. In July, Kelly was leading McSally by 9 points, but in May, his lead was as large as 13 points. Interestingly, though the gap in this race shrunk from July to August, Martha McSally’s level of support remained unchanged – 43% of voters in both polls preferred her over Kelly. What has changed is the number of those supporting Mark Kelly. Kelly fell from 52% in July to just 48% now – the first time since March he has earned less than 50% in an AZPOP survey. One of the main drivers narrowing the race is the negative advertising coming from McSally and Republican-aligned groups like the National Republican Senatorial Committee, mostly centering on Kelly’s business ties to a Chinese company. “The spending by McSally and the NRSC over the past few months seems to have started taking its toll on Mark Kelly’s relatively high favorability,” says OHPI Chief, Mike Noble, “Something the McSally campaign desperately needed given her own ever-decreasing favorability numbers.” McSally also appears to be closing the gap among independent voters. In July, Kelly was outperforming her almost 2:1 (59% to 32%). Now, his lead is still double digits but has been cut in half. Kelly leads McSally among this group of voters 47% to 34% and 15% are undecided. Although the 12-point decrease in Kelly’s support has not translated to a similar increase in McSally’s, the fact that a sizable portion of once-Kelly-supporting Independents are now undecided is a phenomenon to watch. “If McSally continues on her current flight path, she has a shot at winning this election,” says Jacob Joss, OHPI Data Analyst. Methodology: This poll was conducted as a blended phone survey 37.2% Live Caller/ 62.9% IVR. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from August 3rd to August 4th, 2020 from an Arizona 2020 Likely Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. The sample size was 603 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.0%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding. Note: a change was made in the sample methodology of the AZPOP between June and July 2020 to better reflect the state of Arizona’s voter composition. Media Contacts: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, m.noble@ohpredictive.com, (480) 313-1837

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, h.plaster@ohpredictive.com, (602) 687-3034 About OH Predictive Insights: Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights provides accurate polling, focus groups, data analytics, and advanced targeted marketing to political and non-political clients alike. With leading professionals in the advertising, communication, polling and political arenas, OH Predictive Insights will service political and non-political clients looking to improve their footing on key stakeholders and consumers. For more information, please call 602-362-5694 or submit a request online.