Many Wall Street strategists are dusting off their 2015 targets for the S&P 500 index and trimming them for 2016.

Crashing-oil prices and fears of a global recession threw cold water on the index’s performance in 2015, causing it to fall short of the average expected gain of about 10%. With a handful of trading days left in the year and the S&P 500 SPX, -2.37% closing at 2,061 on Thursday (for a 0.1% gain year to date), only a handful of the more bearish analysts can hope to meet their 2015 targets — and only if a Santa Claus rally plays out.

Optimism in the stock market took a hit in 2015. The average year-end 2016 target for the S&P 500 for the 10 strategists surveyed by MarketWatch is actually lower than the average of their original 2015 targets. At this time last year, the strategists had pegged the S&P 500 ending 2015 at an average of 2,201. For the end of 2016, those same analysts have an average target of 2,193.

Of primary concern to strategists going forward in 2016 is how divergent central-bank policies — the Federal Reserve tightening and the European Central Bank easing — will boost the dollar DXY, +0.08% , and subsequently pressure earnings of U.S. companies doing business abroad. They’re also looking for heightened volatility and uncertainty during a presidential election year.

Strategist/Firm Current end of 2016 target Original end of 2015 target David Kostin, Goldman Sachs 2,100 2,100 Brian Belski, BMO Capital 2,100 2,275 Andrew Garthwaite, Credit Suisse 2,150 2,100 Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley 2,175 2,275 Savita Subramanian, B.ofA./Merrill 2,200 2,200 Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, J.P. Morgan 2,200 2,250 Jonathan Glionna, Barclays 2,200 2,100 David Bianco, Deutsche Bank 2,250 2,150 Sam Stovall, S&P Capital IQ 2,250 2,250 John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer 2,300 2,311

Here, we’ll go into more detail into the thinking each of these analysts shared in recent notes and research reports.

David Kostin, Goldman Sachs: 2,100

Kostin is predicting 2,100 for the S&P 500, just as he did for 2015, as a bifurcated stock market will result in a flat line for the index over the course of 2016. Channeling baseball legend Yogi Berra, Kostin said 2016 will be “déjà vu all over again.” Historically low market breadth — meaning that a few large-cap stocks are supporting the market — and the specter of rising interest rates are keeping the index in a narrow trading range, Kostin said. He said companies struggling to maintain margins with rising labor costs are adding to headwinds.

A rising dollar DXY, +0.08% will benefit some stocks and harm others, according to Kostin. “The domestic consumer economy is strong but many industrial companies cite a contraction in business activity,” the strategist noted. “Growth equities are outperforming value which is a pattern that occurs when economic growth is weak. Cyclicals have lagged sharply led by Energy and Materials but defensive sectors trade at stretched valuations.”

Brian Belski, BMO Capital: 2,100

Belski’s 2,100 target for 2016 is a far cry from the bullish 2,275 he predicted for the end of 2015. While he believes we are still in a bull market that could last up to two decades, Belski sees the introduction of Fed rate increases and their continuation into 2016 potentially sending the S&P 500 to a cycle high followed by a sharp 15% or more correction.

“Given that we have reared an entire generation of investors that seem to believe it is appropriate to buy stocks only when interest rates are going down, any major change in trend — namely, the messaging and pace of additional Fed moves — will likely cause the most trepidation” Belski noted. The uncertainty of the 2016 Presidential election won't help stocks, he said.

Andrew Garthwaite, Credit Suisse: 2,150

Garthwaite, who predicted a 2015 finish of 2,100 for the S&P 500, says he reduced his overweight rating for U.S. stocks because they are finally falling in line with their fair value and don’t appear to be providing much support for higher price-to-earnings ratios. “Our fair value P/E model for the S&P 500 suggests a target multiple of 16.9x compared to 16.6x now, suggesting only 2% upside,” he noted.

Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley: 2,175

Parker sees a low-return year for the S&P 500 in 2016, conceding that his bullish estimate for 2015 overestimated the benefits of lower oil prices to boost earnings and consumer spending and lower output costs. Still, he hasn’t abandoned the notion that lower oil prices will provide a meaningful benefit to companies in the long run.

“We like mega and large capitalization growth stocks, given the lack of quality alternatives around the globe, and the number of quality stories in consumer discretionary, health care, and technology in the U.S.,” Parker noted. He recommends credit card companies as a way to capture the strong U.S. consumer without facing retail-specific risk and is bullish on health care due to its recent slide and expected M&A.

Savita Subramanian, B. of A./Merrill Lynch: 2,200

Nagging bearish sentiment over U.S. stocks from strategists still remains a good reason to play the contrarian, said Subramanian. “In traditional bull market fashion, we expect returns to be driven more by sentiment and technicals than by fundamentals, with today’s bearish investor sentiment suggesting that risks are firmly to the upside,” she noted.

However, that play isn’t for risk-averse investors with short time horizons, and the strategist also has a year-end 2025 target for the S&P 500 of 3,500. “In an environment of rising interest rates and lower liquidity, we recommend choosing high quality over low quality, dividend growth over high dividend yield, liquidity over leverage and large caps over small caps,” Subramanian noted.

Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, J.P. Morgan: 2,200

Lakos-Bujas, whose 2016 target is slightly lower than his original 2015 one, expects a low-single digit return absent a major surge in the dollar given the close tie between the S&P 500’s level and earnings. Another 10% jump in the dollar would flatten or turn earnings negative, he said.

Jonathan Glionna, Barclays: 2,200

Fed rate increases should translate into a stronger dollar and that will hurt already weak earnings for U.S. companies, said Glionna. “Changes in the USD have a large impact on our EPS model, with further strengthening reducing EPS growth, just like what has happened in 2015,” he said. “Overall, we believe higher interest rates in the U.S. and subsequent strengthening of the USD will be the most impactful macro themes in 2016, having implications for earnings, market upside, and sector performance.”

David Bianco, Deutsche Bank: 2,250

Bianco sees sales growth and price-to-earnings ratios as the main drivers for the S&P 500 in 2016, but not across the board: The health care and technology sectors will do much of the heavy lifting, he said. While Fed interest rate increases have traditionally lowered P/E ratios, Bianco sees relatively low interest rates pushing up valuations.

“Strong private equity activity, public company share repurchases and increased M&A throughout the world shows that the persistence of low interest rates vs. real asset valuations will cause investors to chase existing income producing assets and bid up prices,” he noted. “If long-term yields stay low as the Fed increasingly steps aside, equity valuations are likely to climb higher and corporate managers will also come to more accept lower returns on potential new projects” and boost [capital expenditures].

Sam Stovall, S&P Capital IQ: 2,250

An 8% rise in earnings-per-share growth, with all sectors gaining except energy, should push the S&P 500 to 2,250 by the end of 2016, Stovall noted. He doesn’t see the recent EPS recession as morphing into an economic recession given an expected pickup in earnings growth during the year. Expect volatility to pick up in 2016, however, just as it did in 2015 with the rolling number of days the S&P 500 advances or falls more than 1% on the rise, Stovall said.

But higher volatility doesn’t exactly translate into low returns — quite the opposite, he notes, using historical data. Going back to 1945, if you take all the years where the S&P 500 traded within a range of less than 16%, the index was up 57% of the time. In the years where the range was 36% or more, the S&P 500 finished up 79% of the time.

John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer: 2,300

Stoltzfus, who until recently held on to his bullish 2,311 year-end target for S&P 500, said he sees 2016 as “not quite déjà vu.” With a 2,300 price target for the S&P 500 in 2016, Stoltzfus expects the two major pressures on stocks — a stronger dollar and cratering oil — to lighten up.

“We look for the price of oil to find a bottom when the market eventually recognizes that it has been oversold. We look for the dollar to eventually find a resistance level that will hold sometime in 2016 as economies outside the U.S. continue to improve and show evidence of sustainable growth that will attract investment flows along with demand for foreign imported goods,” he said.