This 1981 prediction of elitist takeover of SF basically came true

Economist Kenneth Rosen Economist Kenneth Rosen Photo: Michael Maloney, The Chronicle Photo: Michael Maloney, The Chronicle Image 1 of / 10 Caption Close This 1981 prediction of elitist takeover of SF basically came true 1 / 10 Back to Gallery

Crystal balls are more often cloudy than clear.

For example, in 1950, artist-sculptor Alexander Weygers foresaw a 21st-century San Francisco with no traffic congestion because nearly everyone in the future has their own flying saucer.

We're still waiting to ride in George Jetson's anti-gravity car.

But a June 9, 1981, New York Times article about San Francisco's changing demographics was surprisingly prescient.

The story, "Changing San Francisco is Foreseen as a Haven for the Wealthy and Childless," quoted Dr. Kenneth T. Rosen of UC Berkeley's Haas School of Business as saying the following:

"Ten years from now, unless we adopt some sort of policy to insure income integration, we will crowd out all the middle-income people. I think San Francisco is going to become a very rich living area, a lot of single and retired people who have money, executives who work down in the financial district. It's going to be very difficult for a nonwealthy person to live here."

Rosen, who made headlines last year over his opposition to the pro-rent control Proposition 10, may not have hit the mark within his 10-year window, but time has borne out his vision.

RELATED: Are people really fleeing the Bay Area in droves? Here's what new census data says

Even in 1981, the housing market in San Francisco was considered outrageous. The median price was $129,000.

"This city dwarfs anything I've ever seen in terms of housing prices," William Witte, then deputy director for housing in the city's Office of Community Development, told the Times.

Oh, if only we could go back in time to buy a house for $129,000.

Here are some predictions that demographers, real estate experts and others made in the article.

San Francisco would become a city where only the elite could afford to live.

TRUE: Not only has it occurred, but income inequality continues to worsen. In the San Francisco metro area, the average income of the top 1 percent of households in California – $3.6 million in 2013 – was 44 times the average income of the bottom 99 percent ($81,094), according to the state Budget and Policy Center. That was by far the worst ratio in the state.

Soaring housing costs would prompt a mass exodus of the middle class.

TRUE: In 1990, San Francisco 60 percent of San Francisco residents lived in middle-class neighborhoods. By 2010, that figure was 41 percent. The 2020 census will likely show further erosion of the middle-class despite a gradual increase overall in population.

The city would become childless.

MOSTLY TRUE: Today San Francisco has the lowest percentage of children of any of the largest 100 cities in America, according to census data.

The trend in decreasing household sizes in San Francisco — from 2.7 persons per household to 2.1, according to 1980 census figures — would continue.

FALSE: Household sizes stabilized at 2.35 person per household in the city (2013-17 U.S. Census figures) — perhaps because many young adults can afford to live only in multiple-roommate houses and apartments.

(Hat tip to Reddit user mrmagcore, who dug up the link to the 1981 Times article.)

---

Read Mike Moffitt's latest stories and send him news tips at moffitt@sfgate.com.

Start receiving breaking news emails on wildfires, civil emergencies, riots, national breaking news, Amber Alerts, weather emergencies, and other critical events with the SFGATE breaking news email. Click here to make sure you get the news.