ST. PAUL, Minn.-St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman spent part of a recent Monday speaking to the Rotary Club - the Owatonna Rotary Club, to be precise - about an hour south of his hometown.

On the Fourth of July, the mayor took in the sights in cozy Gilbert, Minn., about three hours north of Minnesota's capital city.

And in June, Coleman was in front of a union workers protest at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, which is not officially part of any city at all.

Then there were the Labor Day parades in Duluth, Cloquet and Virginia's Olcott Park, where the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party mayor made a pitch for Hillary Clinton for president.

Coleman, a former St. Paul City Council member, has been mayor since 2006. He's been mum on running for re-election before his third term wraps up at the end of 2017.

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However, his recent travels strike political observers as more closely resembling those of a gubernatorial candidate than a mayor seeking a fourth term, despite any official explanation from his staff.

Coleman, who had considered a gubernatorial run in 2009, appears to be at the very least testing the waters again.

Others say the mayor could just as easily be chosen for a federal appointment if Clinton wins the White House.

Top staffers around him are mum.

"In the face of considerable inaction at the state and federal levels, mayors are turning toward one another for examples of how to get things done," said mayoral spokeswoman Tonya Tennessen, addressing Coleman's out-of-town visits shortly after the Labor Day parade. "The mayor is very happy to share St. Paul's story with others.

"The mayor loves his job, and is focused on the significant work underway in St. Paul," she added Thursday. "Running for governor is something he is considering, but there's lots of work left to do in St. Paul."

If Coleman chooses to enter the 2018 gubernatorial race, the news would come as little surprise to anyone paying attention.

Coleman publicly withdrew from the 2010 gubernatorial race before even officially announcing he was in. This time around, he has since filled his staff with veteran political campaigners and DFL activists and courted fellow DFL leaders such as Minneapolis Mayor Betsy Hodges as allies.

His ongoing service to the National League of Cities - he was president in 2014 - frequently drew him to the White House and other cities around the country, boosting St. Paul's profile alongside his own.

A gubernatorial bid would surprise no one.

"No, definitely not," said Steven Schier, professor of political science at Carleton College in Northfield.

Schier recalled former Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak's unsuccessful bid for the DFL gubernatorial endorsement in 2010. "But as R.T. Rybak can tell him, it's not easy to move from being mayor of a major city to governor of Minnesota. If you look at state legislative elections in 2014, there's a big rural-urban split."

Minnesota GOP Chairman Keith Downey said he could not speculate on how many contenders will emerge from within the Republican Party, and said pols are more focused on this November's election.

"The DFL is going to have a long list of candidates for governor," Downey said. "The general discussion that I have heard is that you can legitimately have 8 to 12 people with some statewide reputation and name recognition. I don't honestly know within the Democrat Party where Chris Coleman would actually stand."

Marty Seifert, a former Republican state lawmaker who twice ran unsuccessfully for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, noted that Coleman's father was a majority leader in the Minnesota Senate in the 1970s, giving him a bit of name recognition, however dated.

"I consider him a credible candidate," Seifert said. "I think a lot of mayors across the state would have respect for him, because he understands some of the challenges they face. ... I think it would be an uphill climb, but achievable."

Impact of city's image

St. Paul is staring down the prospect of a property tax increase for 2017. The mayor's office has said a tax bill not signed into law contained a $3 million increase in state aid the city was counting on to balance its books next year. Without the new funds, the tax levy could go up as much as 7 percent, or important programs might be reduced.

"To greater Minnesota, and suburban Minnesota, St. Paul is a city that gets a lot of governmental assistance, spends a lot of money and is now on the verge of a huge tax increase," Schier said. "Those are three tough arguments to carry outside of the borders of Minneapolis and St. Paul."

Nevertheless, the mayor has maintained a more cordial relationship with business advocates, union leaders, community groups and the DFL political establishment than some of his predecessors.

St. Paul Area Chamber of Commerce President Matt Kramer, a former spokesman for Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty, said Coleman's time in office would serve him well at the Capitol.

"While I'm not privy to the mayor's future plans, I can say that having worked in a governor's administration, I wish anyone well who aspires to deal with that level of headache," Kramer said. "Certainly Mayor Coleman, as mayor of the second-largest city in the state, has the experience to deal with the complexities that come with that role."

Professor Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance in the Hubert H. Humphrey School at the University of Minnesota, foresees a crowded field of DFLers in 2018.

Among them, high-profile politicians such as Lt. Gov. Tina Smith, state Sen. Tom Bakk, state Rep. Paul Thissen and state Rep. Erin Murphy. Even U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar might be eyeing the governorship, Jacobs said. Rybak has indicated he will not run. An equally wide cast will emerge for the GOP, including some surprises.

Coleman has "certainly been very skilled at building coalitions," said Jacobs, who sees Coleman as a second or third choice for many unions, DFL women's groups and the environmental lobby, but not an obvious first pick. "The problem is he doesn't stand out as a leading candidate."

But in politics, anything can change. And for voters over the next two years, all sorts of political surprises are bound to be in store.

A 'funner' city, but where are the jobs?

History has not smiled upon mayors throwing their hats into the gubernatorial ring. With the notable exception of professional wrestler and Hollywood actor Jesse Ventura, who served as mayor of Brooklyn Park before becoming governor in 1999, it would be almost unprecedented for a city official to make the leap without first serving as a state lawmaker or in another statewide capacity, such as state auditor.

In the 1850s, Gov. Alexander Ramsey served as a U.S. congressman and a territorial governor before becoming mayor of St. Paul. He then went on to become governor again, after Minnesota obtained statehood. Fast forward a century and a half: Arne Carlson, who was governor in the 1990s, had served a single term on the Minneapolis City Council decades prior.

Should he choose to be a statewide candidate, Coleman will have to make the case to voters that his leadership since defeating former Mayor Randy Kelly in 2005 has left his city of 300,000 residents better off than when he assumed the corner office, and that the same skills and accomplishments translate to statewide challenges.

He'll have seasoned help.

Chief of staff Dana Bailey and Tennessen, a former spokeswoman for the state DFL Party, served as aides to Gov. Mark Dayton at different points in the governor's political career. And Deputy Mayor Kristin Beckmann served as co-chair of Hodges' transition team when she was elected mayor of Minneapolis.

Coleman is fond of saying that St. Paul in 2009 moved to strong economic ground after the worst recession since the Great Depression and now boasts such downtown attractions as restaurants, high-end residences and CHS Field, the $64 million city-owned ballpark that houses the independent-league St. Paul Saints. The Red Bull Crashed Ice race has become a regular winter spectacle for thousands of fans.

"I think Chris Coleman will play great in Duluth. He likes craft beer," said Katharine Tinucci, who managed Dayton's successful 2014 re-election campaign. "I think he'd be a great candidate for governor. I've known him many years."

Surrounding CHS Field, the Lowertown neighborhood has developed notable cachet, even among former critics, and once-notorious neighborhood corridors such as Payne Avenue on the East Side now welcome connoisseurs of specialty cocktails and fusion cuisine.

Many agree that St. Paul is, as Coleman has said only half-jokingly in the past, a "funner" city than it was a decade ago.

The same probably can't be said for Detroit, Newark, Stockton, Milwaukee and other former manufacturing strongholds hard-hit by national economic trends.

Nevertheless, St. Paul job growth has been soft, and unlike Minneapolis, the city was home to fewer positions in mid-2015, both public and private, than it was in mid-2007 or mid-2008.

"In St. Paul, we've certainly seen a lot of challenges," Tinucci said. "I think that how the city has fared under (Coleman's) leadership is better than if he hadn't been there. We've seen fantastic development. He's worked really hard to bring jobs to St. Paul, and keep jobs in St. Paul, at a time when things have changed for cities like St. Paul all over the country.

City's work has been criticized

At times, the Coleman administration has been called upon to defend or retool city departments. Much of that work has fallen to Coleman's deputy mayors (there have been three since 2005) and other surrogates. A few examples:

In 2012, public defenders alleged flawed drug-testing practices at the St. Paul police crime lab, which was then unaccredited. After improvements, it passed international accreditation in 2014.

In 2013, the state took over restaurant, grocery and swimming pool inspections, saying the city's work was shoddy and faced huge backlogs. The hostile nature created a rift between state government and City Hall.

That same year, a similar break led to the separation of St. Paul's and Ramsey County's contract procurement offices, which once shared operations.

Since then, the mayor has made a public point of bringing in outside consultants to help create new metrics, or measurable goals and codified procedures, to revamp the St. Paul Department of Public Works.

Schier predicts Coleman has a decent shot at winning the DFL gubernatorial endorsement, depending in part upon who else tosses a hat in the ring.

Nevertheless, taxpayer-funded projects such as Metro Transit's Green Line and CHS Field may not play as big outside the metro area, even in DFL strongholds like the Iron Range. The privately funded Major League Soccer stadium planned for St. Paul's Midway neighborhood will likely open in 2018, after Coleman presumably leaves office.

"The question is how those are perceived," Schier said. "That could serve him in the endorsement process. For the general election, he'd have to retool."

Competition expected to replace Coleman at city hall

After more than a decade in the office, Chris Coleman's departure from the mayor's chair will set off competition for the rare open seat.

The winner of the Nov. 2017 St. Paul mayoral election will be decided by ranked-choice vote, and there will be no political primary to whittle down contenders.

In other words, virtually anyone who pays the $500 filing fee will appear on the ballot - even schlock candidates such as superheroes and vampires.

In fact, when Minneapolis held a ranked-choice, open-seat mayoral election in 2013, the 35 campaigns included two self-described pirates. Instead of setting their sights on winning, some long-shot mayoral contenders ran to call attention to particular causes, such as their support for locally sourced food, marijuana legalization or a downtown casino.