As one of a few centrist Republicans in what is effectively a 50-49 Senate, Sen. Lisa Murkowski has enormous sway over the congressional agenda. Sometimes she wishes she had a little less of it.

Murkowski is looking ahead to November for help. Because of a very favorable election map, Republicans could conceivably pick up Senate seats even if Democrats take the House. And a gain of even a seat or two would change the entire complexion of the Senate.


With even a slightly larger GOP majority, no longer could Murkowski or her independent-minded brethren like Susan Collins of Maine or Rand Paul of Kentucky effectively dictate which nominees or majority-vote legislation make it through the chamber.

Gone, too, would be the constant headaches for Republican leaders sweating an absence, wavering senator or Vice President Mike Pence’s availability to break a tie. Republicans might even have another shot at repealing Obamacare or shrinking the size of the federal government.

To Murkowski, the change can’t come soon enough.

“It is certainly more comfortable to have a stronger majority,” the Alaska Republican said. “I am not one who likes to hog the limelight. [Reporters] push me out to a very uncomfortable place at times. I accept it as part of the job. But I do not seek it out. Believe me. I don’t do this for the attention.”

Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), who is likely to be GOP whip next year, is hoping to inherit a much easier job where complete party unity isn't always required.

As it stands now, “you have to have everybody on every vote. … Sometimes people for different reasons want to be able to get cut loose from time to time [to break from the party] and we just don’t have that luxury,” he said. “Fifty vs. 53? Fifty-three is huge, relatively speaking.”

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And yet the GOP ambition to give itself just a little breathing room underscores how the Senate map has shifted toward Democrats in the past 18 months. A filibuster-proof majority after 2018 once seemed a possibility given the 10 Democratic incumbents up for reelection in states President Donald Trump won.

But with Senate Democrats in Ohio, Pennsylvania and even West Virginia and Montana looking increasingly safe, Republicans find themselves fighting for a majority that will simply allow them to confirm Trump’s nominees without a dose of daily drama.

The minuscule margins will be under the microscope over the next month as Republicans hold a rare August work session. Just a single absence or “no” vote by a Republican senator could be enough to derail Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's Senate agenda, including confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) called the GOP’s current position “excruciating.”

“You can lose your majority on practically anything,” Cruz said.

Democrats never envisioned the surprisingly strong position they are now in. After beating back Obamacare repeal, they won a special election in Alabama last year. And now with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) out with treatment for brain cancer, Democrats have been able to scuttle a number of the GOP’s priorities and even pass a mostly symbolic measure in the Senate restoring net neutrality.

Earlier this month, the nomination of a Circuit Court pick imploded after Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and all Democrats opposed him over past racially charged commentary. Veterans Affairs nominee Ronny Jackson was withdrawn this spring. And a package of spending cuts failed due to “no” votes from just two GOP senators.

Had there been a slightly brawnier Republican caucus, Democrats might have lost one or more of those battles. And with such a caucus, the Kavanaugh battle would have been an easy win for the GOP, and replacing ousted EPA administrator Scott Pruitt would have been a breeze.

Democrats say they can retake the Senate by beating Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.), picking up an open seat or two and protecting all their incumbents. But they acknowledge that just keeping it close for the next two years would be an important accomplishment ahead of a more favorable 2020 Senate electoral map.

“The closer we are to balance, the less likely the most outrageous nominees will go through unquestioned,“ said Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the party’s chief vote counter.

Despite a potential Democratic wave in the House, the battle for the Senate has become trench warfare in just a handful of states. Republicans believe their best shots at picking up seats now come down to a trio of Democratic incumbents: Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Joe Donnelly of Indiana.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has concentrated its fall reservations in those states and in defending Heller and Arizona’s Republican open seat. Florida Gov. Rick Scott is also mounting a serious challenge to Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, while former Tennessee Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen is running a surprisingly strong campaign against Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn for that state’s open seat.

Trump won all of those states except Nevada. So if Republicans can capitalize on his popularity in conservative states, picking up two or three seats is not out of the question — and neither is a more ambitious agenda.

“With 53 members we get health care done,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), vice chair of the party’s campaign arm.

Of course, there’s plenty of room for the GOP position to erode further. Though it’s still a long shot, it’s possible that Democrats win the Senate outright. Historically, the president’s party does poorly in midterm elections.

“It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which we move backwards,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.).

Of course, Democrats can’t raise money by saying they will keep the Senate close and take it back in 2020. So they are instead running on winning the chamber this fall.

"There’s a path," said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), chair of the party's campaign arm. "It’s a narrow path but a credible path."

McConnell and his team aren’t ruling out the possibility that Democrats prevail, a scenario that animates conservative donors and helps Republicans raise money. Though the GOP is still favored to keep the chamber, “elections can sometimes have surprising consequences,” Murkowski said.

Already this year there have more than a half-dozen close calls for McConnell and Majority Whip John Cornyn: Pence broke ties on the nominations of NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine, religious ambassador Sam Brownback and Deputy Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought, while there have been four 50-49 votes on nominees just in July. And that doesn’t take into account all the votes McConnell hasn’t even held because of just one senator’s private objections.

Though 16 GOP senators requested that McConnell cancel this year’s recess, several of them have missed votes in July. They may not have that luxury in August, especially if McConnell prioritizes conservative Circuit Court nominees, who sometimes draw uniform Democratic opposition.

And each close vote is a reminder to the party’s campaign bosses how much every Senate seat matters, and a reminder to voters how close the balance of power is to tipping in three months.

“Majority is a victory,” said Cornyn, the Texas senator who is term-limited out of his No. 2 job next year. “Everything else is gravy.”

