It looks like Broadway is going to hell.

Our annual survey of Tony Award voters finds a solid plurality favoring “Hadestown,” the folk- and jazz-inflected journey to the underworld, for best musical, the most financially consequential contest. And “The Ferryman,” a sprawling drama whose title alludes to the boatman who brings souls to Hades, is leading in the race for best play.

Over the last several days I ’ve spoken or corresponded with 123 of the 831 Tony voters. This is not a scientific poll — voting continues until noon on Friday, and for the results, you’ll have to tune in to the award show Sunday at 8 p.m., Eastern, on CBS — but it offers our best assessment of what is likely to happen in eight key categories.

Keep in mind: This year, for the first time, voters are receiving personalized electronic ballots based on their self-reported attendance, meaning that they cannot vote in categories in which they have not confirmed seeing all the nominees. As a result, the number of ballots cast, particularly in play categories, is likely to be smaller than in past years.

Dark and downtown are hot this year.

“Hadestown,” facing off against musical comedies, film adaptations and a jukebox musical, is the artsy contender, born in the nonprofit world with a score by Anaïs Mitchell, a singer-songwriter from Vermont. It seems to have a solid, although not insurmountable, lead for best musical.