Today will be the fourth edition of my Big 12 Power Rankings since I’ve started this blog. Thanks to everyone who read last week. That post had by far the most views of any article I’ve written this season. Glad people are enjoying it; hopefully this week is no different. If you like what you read, feel free to share it on social media or your go-to team forums. It would be much appreciated.

All of my previous Power Rankings posts, as well as the season previews I wrote, can be found at this link. For any newcomers, below is a blurb I wrote in my first Power Rankings post this season. (If you’ve been here before, go ahead and skip ahead to the good stuff.) The below inset is what I’ve decided is essentially my mission statement for this weekly article.

“Two of my favorite basketball writers on the Internet are Zach Lowe and Luke Winn. I guess I should say “were” for one of those guys as Luke Winn was hired by the Toronto Raptors (!) in the summer of 2017 as Director of Prospect Strategy. Lowe covers the NBA and Winn did cover college basketball for Sports Illustrated. The best part about reading these guys is that you learn something new about basketball, whether it’s a team or a player, every time that you read their stuff. They inform you in intelligent ways without relying on the standard hot take-isms or journalistic tropes. They notice things about teams or players while watching games and then show it to their readers, whether through game clips or data-based analysis, and they do it in a way that is digestible and thought-provoking. I do not have the talent that these two guys have, but my goal is to provide you with a similar look at the Big 12 every week with my weekly Big 12 Power Rankings post. I will rank the teams 1 through 10, but that’s not really what matters here (but feel free to let me know if your team should obviously be ranked 5th instead of 6th). What I want to provide are statistics, analysis, game clips, or just random observations that I’ve made that help you to learn more about a team or a player on that team. And sometimes, I just might include a funny anecdote or item about a team if there’s a slow week. Some weeks, I’ll write more about some teams than other teams. The bigger the game or a week a school has, the more likely I am to go a little deeper on them. Everyone will get their fair share in the end. Just like Lowe and Winn, I want to inform you and give you thought-provoking and compelling analysis on the Big 12 that you’re not getting anywhere else on the Internet. Alright, let’s jump in.”

Before I get into each team, let’s just talk real quick about how good the Big 12 has been in this first month of the season. The league is currently 69-12. That’s a winning percentage of 85%, which is the best in the nation for any conference.

On Tuesday night, the league had four non-conference matchups that could all be considered difficult. As you can see in the below tweet, it was very unlikely they won all four. It was unlikely they’d even win three of the games. They won all four.

Kenpom probability of each Big 12 team winning tonight’s tilts: West Virginia: 53%

Texas: 66%

Texas Tech: 73%

TCU: 62% Probability of all four winning: 15.8% And yet, all four won. The Big 12 always impresses. Nights like this are why it’s the best conference in America. — Big 12 BasketBlog (@Big12BasketBlog) December 6, 2017

The league is the best league in the country, and I’m not sure it’s close right now.

Alright, let’s dive in. As per usual, here’s a breakdown on the key Kenpom statistics and metrics that will be shown for each team every week. These will always be shown right below the header for each team. Ken Pomeroy’s blog post explaining these metrics can be read here.

• Ranking and AdjEM: The ranking signifies where a team ranks nationally in Kenpom’s AdjEM. AdjEM is Adjusted Efficiency Margin; it is the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency. The margin is “adjusted” to account for strength of competition, expected outcome, and recency. The idea of “adjusted” is explained in much clearer detail by Pomeroy here.

• Adj. Offense: Also known as Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Adj. Offense is shown on a per 100 possessions basis, so a rating of 112.3 would represent 112.3 points scored per 100 possessions. This will include the team’s adjusted efficiency number, their rank nationally, and their rank in the Big 12.

• Adj. Defense: Also known as Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This works the same as Adj. Offense, but is for a team’s defensive efficiency. Adj. Defense is shown on a per 100 possessions basis, so a rating of 98.7 would represent 98.7 points allowed per 100 possessions. This will include the team’s adjusted efficiency number, their rank nationally, and their rank in the Big 12.

• Adj. Tempo: This shows the number of possessions per 40 minutes. A data point of 71.8 would mean this team plays 71.8 possessions per 40 minutes. This will always include the team’s adjusted tempo, their rank nationally, and their rank in the Big 12.

All statistics used in this post are from Kenpom, Synergy Sports, College Basketball Reference, Hoop-Math, or T-Rank. All clips are pulled from WatchESPN or uploaded games on YouTube. So if I haven’t pulled many clips on your team, it’s because their games can’t be found on those platforms, not because I don’t want to. Once conference play rolls around and basically every Big 12 game is on ESPN, the clip count between teams should even out.

1. Kansas Jayhawks (Last Week: 1st)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 7-1, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 3rd, +26.00

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 115.7, 13th, 2nd

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 89.7, 4th, 1st

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 71.7, 98th, 4th



So that was an awfully weird loss by Kansas last night, huh? Washington used their 2-3 zone to extend out very high on the perimeter and basically dared Kansas to beat them with Lagerald Vick in the high post. Vick and either Azubuike or Lightfoot would be left playing 2-on-2 with the remaining Washington defenders and couldn’t do enough. Kansas was obviously not helped by their 3-point shooting, as they shot 5-20 from 3-point range.

The game was oddly similar to last season’s Elite 8 loss to Oregon. Kansas faced a Pac-12 team in Kansas City who was throwing an odd zone at them, and Kansas couldn’t score against it. Their PPP against Oregon last season was 0.94; last night, it was 0.93. They shot 5-25 from 3 against Oregon; they shot 5-20 from 3 against Washington. Just really weird how similar those two games felt. I wouldn’t be too worried if I was a Kansas fan. They’re not going to face junk defenses like that often, and if they do, they likely won’t shoot that poorly. But if or when Kansas does go out in the NCAA Tournament this season, it could be in a game like that. Sometimes, shots just do not fall when you need them to.

My plan for Kansas this week was to talk about their defense thus far, which I’m still going to do here. Despite the loss last night, Kansas is still playing really good defense this season. They are currently 4th in Kenpom’s Adjusted Defense metric, trailing only Virginia, Michigan State, and Texas A&M. Last night was the first game that an opponent scored over 1.00 PPP and just the 2nd time an opponent had recorded a PPP better than 0.90. Last season at this exact moment in the calendar, three opponents had already recorded a PPP better than 1.00 and another had recorded a game over 0.90 PPP.

Let’s get into the why of it. Because this team is essentially playing four perimeter players and only one big at all times, there is a lot of switchability (is that a word?) on the floor at all times. They are able to easily switch screens 1-through-4, and whomever is playing the 5 — whether it’s Udoka Azubuike or Mitch Lightfoot — does a great job showing on ballscreens just long enough until the guard being screened has time to recover.

Check out this first clip I pulled from the Syracuse game, where Kansas played defense about as well as a team can in one possession. Svi Mykhailiuk’s man sets a screen on Devonte’ Graham, which Svi smoothly switches on to, and Udoka Azubuike is in the perfect position to show on the 2nd ball screen. Azubuike then backs into the paint to provide perfect help defense against a curl cut, which Marcus Garrett is trailing. Garrett is right on his man’s hip after doing a great job in avoiding two screens. This Kansas team does a great job of avoiding being screened, which a defensive skill that is not spoken of often, but is incredibly important. The possession ends with Marcus Garrett playing terrific on-ball defense and forcing a tough shot. The defensive positioning is tremendous for the entire possession.

Let’s break down that positioning a bit further. In this second clip, you’ll see how both Malik Newman and Devonte’ Graham do a great job as off-ball defenders at pinching in towards the paint to prevent a drive, but also still be in good shape to recover and close-out on their man.

In the image below, look at where Malik Newman is when the ball screen happens on the opposite wing. He’s in perfect position to help on a drive but also in good shape to recover to his man, which he does.

Devonte’ Graham does the exact same thing later in the possession. He pinches in, kills the potential drive, and recovers beautifully.

This last clip shows this defensive positioning and awareness turning into immediate points for Kansas on the other end. Devonte’ Graham is defending the left wing when a ball screen is inititated on the right. He pinches in perfectly to prevent the drive, but the defender still probes to test the Kansas defense. Graham uses his quick hands to swipe the ball and go the other way for an easy lay-in.

The loss to Washington is bad. It could potentially look very bad at the end of the season. But Kansas fans shouldn’t be overly concerned. They are still overwhelming favorites for the Big 12 title, and their defense looks improved compared to the 2017 squad. The Syracuse game was a master class in defensive positioning and effective defensive switching between teammates. They’ll be fine.

Coming Up: 12/10 vs. Arizona State

2. West Virginia Mountaineers (Last Week: 2nd)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 8-1, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 10th, +22.79

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 114.7, 16th, 3rd

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 91.9, 12th, 4th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 75.2, 13th, 2nd



Let’s give a quick update on an all-important statistic for West Virginia basketball — shot margin. I first talked about this two weeks ago, in my November 23 Power Rankings post. Here is what I wrote then:

Shot Margin means exactly what you think it would mean. Do you take more shots than your opponent? How do you do this? You grab offensive rebounds and you force turnovers. If you do those two things well enough, you’ll end up taking enough shots to beat your opponent. West Virginia is a master at doing these two things. They’ve been in the top 6 nationally in Offensive Rebounding Rate and in the top 2 nationally in forcing turnovers in the last three seasons. So how have they done at creating more shots than their opponents this season? Let’s check in. For this statistic, remember that each free throw attempt counts as half a shot. That way, your standard two free throw attempts trip to the line represents one opportunity at getting two points. West Virginia was essentially even in Shot Margin against Texas A&M, recording 74.5 shots compared to 74 for Texas A&M. West Virginia is not efficient enough offensively to play against another very good team and take the same amount of shots as them. They don’t have the necessary shot-making to make that work. In that game against the Aggies, they were 24-70 from the field, a chilly 34%. That’s not a satisfactory percentage. They need to take more shots than their opponent, which means they need to grab their own misses and force turnovers, and they need to get to the foul line. In their other three games, they’ve outshot their opponents by around 20-25 shots per game, which resulted in blowout victories.

No team in the Big 12 (and probably the country) relies on “outshooting” their opponents like West Virginia does. So let’s check in on how this statistic looks after nine games.

West Virginia is currently averaging 14.9 more shot attempts per game than their opponents. They’re doing this by grabbing 37.4% of their own misses, which ranks 14th nationally, and by forcing turnovers on 28.5% of their opponents’ possessions, which ranks 2nd nationally. This is Press Virginia. This is why it works.

Saying that, what’s most encouraging to me in the above table is the bottom row. West Virginia only outshot Virginia by 3.5 shots and still were able to win the game against a very good opponent. They showed shotmaking ability that they don’t always show. They shot 40% on 3’s, going 10-25 from deep. Lamont West finally had his first great game of the season, going 4-9 from 3 in his 22-point effort. They need his scoring ability against better opponents when they don’t significantly outshoot their opposition.

It would be remiss of me to not mention the play of Jevon Carter on Tuesday in that game against Virginia. Carter scored 23 points, grabbed 10 rebounds, and dished out 7 assists while playing all 40 minutes. He’s having an amazing year thus far. He’s currently 9th in Kenpom’s Player of the Year Rankings, and he has already recorded 4 “MVP” performances, per Kenpom’s website. (Kenpom assigns an MVP to every single game played during the college basketball season based on that game’s statistics and efficiency.) He’s already halfway to his 8 MVP tally from last season.

Coming Up: 12/9 at Pittsburgh

3. TCU Horned Frogs (Last Week: 4th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 9-0, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 19th, +19.95

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 115.9, 12th, 1st

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 95.9, 41st, 7th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 72.2, 75th, 3rd



TCU is currently undefeated at 9-0, and there’s a very real chance they’ll go into conference play on December 30th at 12-0. What would that mean for their chances at getting their first NCAA Tournament bid since 1997?

The site barttorvik.com has a great tool called Teamcast, where you can choose results for specific games and see what it would mean for a team’s tournament chances and potential seeding in the website’s “T-Ranketology Forecast”. Using this tool, I gave TCU wins in their next three games — against Nevada, Texas Southern, and William & Mary. The Nevada game on Friday will be difficult, but for the sake of this exercise, let’s call it a W. I also gave a win to TCU in their Big 12/SEC Challenge game at Vanderbilt on January 27. It’s a road game, but TCU will be favored. Barttorvik had TCU favored by 6 at the time of this exercise. This would put TCU at 13-0 in non-conference play.

For the remaining Big 12 games, I didn’t manually input the result of any game. I left it up to the current win probability projected by Barttorvik for each game. Those win probabilities give TCU a projected conference record of 9-9 and an overall regular season record of 22-9. I didn’t input any Big 12 Tournament results. According to the site’s forecast, this would project TCU as a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament — seeded as the 14th team overall.

I can already picture those who don’t pay close attention to college basketball being surprised by this on Selection Sunday, but TCU is very good and they will likely be in the 3-5 seed range. They are going to make their first NCAA Tournament since 1997 with room to spare, and none of us should be surprised by that.

(If you want to explore TCU’s Teamcast yourself, here is a link. You can get lost for a bit messing around with any team on the site.)

Coming Up: 12/8 vs. Nevada

4. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Last Week: 5th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 7-1, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 17th, +20.48

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 112.2, 40th, 7th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 91.7, 10th, 3rd

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 70.6, 154th, 6th



When I was watching Texas Tech against Nevada on Tuesday night, an internal monologue occurred in my head as the Red Raiders were struggling on offense. I thought, “It really feels like Texas Tech has far too many possessions in their motion offense that end in bad isolation situations or inefficient post-ups. I really wish they would run more ball screen action with Keenan Evans and a big (preferably Zach Smith) with shooters spacing the court.”

What’s the next step when one has an observation like that? You’ve got to check out the advanced stats. Is your observation backed by data? Or is it just a one-off occurrence that you’re noticing in one single game? This is why the debate in sports between advanced analytics and the “eye-test” is so silly and, to put it bluntly, dumb. If you’re not using advanced stats, you’re wrong. If you’re only looking at advanced stats, and not studying game film to see how those stats impact the game, you’re wrong. Both are needed. Always be as informed as possible. To reject one or the other is foolish.

Let’s transition back to Texas Tech’s situation. Synergy Sports charts games and divides plays into play types. I wanted to see how often Texas Tech ended up in the following play types: isolation, post-ups, and ball screens. I also wanted to know how successful or efficient they were in those play types and how they compared to the rest of the Big 12.

Let’s look at isolation situations first. The table below shows data on isolation play types among all Big 12 teams (sorted by % of total play types). You can see Texas Tech is first on the list at 8.2%. Their efficiency is okay, at 0.77 PPP, which is 5th in the league. But there’s just way too many possessions here, as they’ve got nearly two more percentage points of isolation possessions than Kansas State in 2nd. They shouldn’t have this many isolation possessions per game.

Next up is post-up situations. The traditional motion offense can often lead to a simple post-entry pass from the wing to the block with the defender on the post-up man’s back. The constant movement and downscreen action near the blocks results in this frequently. Texas Tech is 4th in the Big 12 in % of possessions ending in post-ups at 8.6%, and they’re pretty inefficient when it happens, scoring only 0.65 PPP in those scenarios. It’s just not productive. Their three players who have the most post-ups this season are whom you’d expect: Tommy Hamilton, Norense Odiase, and Zach Smith. None have been good. On post-ups, Hamilton is averaging 0.75 PPP, Odiase is at 0.72, and Zach Smith is at 0.5 PPP. The old (outdated) adage of “throw the ball into the post and get an easy basket” is simply not true for most teams, and Texas Tech is included in that group.

Now, let’s take a look at pick and roll situations. First, let me note what the next table is showing. Synergy Sports has two different play types for pick and rolls. One is called pick and roll “ball handler”, and the other is called pick and roll “roll man”. This means the possession either ends with the ball handler or with the roll man. Obviously, we’re missing another option here — the pick and roll leading to a potential scoring situation for one of the other three players on the court. I want to include those as well, because we want to know if the pick and roll action ultimately ended with points, however those points arise. Therefore, the below table shows “Pick and Rolls Including Passes”, which is another metric Synergy Sports charts.

Now comes the time to use your favorite confused meme or GIF if you’re a Texas Tech fan. Texas Tech is 9th in the conference in Pick and Roll (Including Passes) play types as a percent of total play types despite being the most efficient team in the league in those exact situations, averaging 1.08 PPP. This NEEDS to be the primary action on offense. There’s no excuse to be running pick and rolls nearly half as frequently as Iowa State, who runs them 34% of the time compared to your 18%. You’re too efficient in these possessions to continue to forego them for something else. One could make a Devil’s Advocate argument saying that they’re efficient in these possessions because opponents don’t prepare/scout for them. I would direct that devil to look at Oklahoma State and West Virginia, who also have similarly low pick and roll possessions without the higher efficiency. I don’t think that’s it.

For anyone who watched the Texas Tech/Nevada game, you know what happened in the 2nd half. With his team trailing 51-42 with just over ten minutes to play, Chris Beard abandoned his motion offense, which often led to those unsuccessful isolation and post-up play types. He put Zach Smith at the 5, sat Tommy Hamilton and Norense Odiase on the bench, and rolled with his guards. The offense transformed into a 4-out, 1-in system, with Zach Smith setting ball screens for Keenan Evans. Evans got into the paint whenever he wanted, ended up shooting 13-19 from the FT line, and Texas Tech came back to win in overtime.

That offense might be the one Chris Beard needs to move to moving forward. I know he comes from the Bob Knight lineage, a coaching tree that is built on a traditional motion offense with a PG, two perimeter players, and two big men. But that simply isn’t what’s best for this group of players. They have too many athletic, versatile wings in Zhaire Smith, Jarrett Culver, Justin Gray, and Niem Stevenson to not utilize those guys as much as possible. It’ll be better for the Red Raiders in the long run.

Coming Up: 12/13 vs. Kennesaw State

5. Baylor Bears (Last Week: 3rd)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 6-2, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 24th, +18.79

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 112.3, 39th, 6th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 93.5, 19th, 5th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 65.5, 337th, 10th

Baylor lost back-to-back games to Xavier and Wichita State before getting back on the winning side against Sam Houston State on Monday. In those losses, Baylor posted PPP on offense of 0.97 and 0.98. They also shot below 50% on 2-pointers in both games and below 30% on 3-pointers. It was just a consistent slog on offense through 80 minutes of basketball.

Let’s dive into the issues by first bringing up plays that ended in made baskets against Wichita State. Seems counterintuitive, but trust where I’m taking you.

Manu Lecomte is a terrific basketball player. He’s currently averaging 16.6 PPG on 41% shooting from 3-point range and 95% shooting from the FT line. He’s 2nd on Baylor in Offensive Rating at 123.3, per Kenpom (only trailing Jake Lindsey), and he leads Baylor in % of total minutes played at 82.2%. He does so much for this Baylor team. That includes hitting some incredibly difficult shots often. Check out this clip from the game against Wichita State. Manu Lecomte makes three terrific individual plays basically on his own.

Those baskets are made in different ways — the first basket is penetration off a pindown, the second two are tough pull-up jumpers after ball screens. You’ll see Baylor run the action in that first clip often. Lecomte will initiate the offense by making an entry pass to a wing and will head down to the baseline to run off screens. He then has options. He can run off a single pindown on one side or run off a double-stagger or elevator screen on the other. Sometimes, this will result in a wide open three or a curl cut that gets him into the paint. But when it doesn’t result in an easy look, it often turns into Lecomte being forced to make things happen on his own. Let’s run through some of these scenarios.

You’ll see a common trend in all of these clips — Baylor’s offense moves at a speed that’s too slow to be tracked by any functioning radar gun. It is sloth-like. Baylor is ranked 337th in Adjusted Tempo in Kenpom, and it shows. In this first clip, Baylor doesn’t get into any semblance of a set until there’s 15 seconds left on the shot clock. When that high-low post entry pass isn’t there, the offensive possession is dead. All Lecomte can do is get a handoff and launch a low-percentage 3.

In this second clip, it’s more of the same. Lecomte initiates the set and then heads to the baseline to run off a double-stagger. At the 0:10 mark of this clip, King McClure passes across the top of the key to Nuni Omot instead of feeding Lecomte off the double-stagger, which was the set’s intended design. (See the Baylor assistant coach in the 2nd seat who is immediately annoyed when McClure makes the wrong pass.) At this point, the set is dead and it’s time for Lecomte to try to make something happen out of nothing. There’s not enough time left in the shot clock to call any other action due to how slow Baylor plays. Their tempo has handcuffed them.

In this last clip, you can guess what happens. (Hint: nothing good.) Lecomte starts to call a set with 25 seconds left on the shot clock. He doesn’t make the pass to initiate the action of the set until there’s 18 seconds left on the shot clock. What is happening in those seven seconds?!? Why is Baylor moving SO slowly? Have some semblance of urgency. It shouldn’t take that long to call a set and initiate it. Lecomte runs off a pindown, the main action in the set, with 10 seconds left on the shot clock. He doesn’t have an open look, Baylor has now wasted 20 seconds, and Lecomte tries creating something off a ballscreen which goes nowhere in particular.

This is the problem when you play at such a slow tempo. Every possession becomes so much more meaningful, and when you play good teams like Xavier or Wichita State, any wasted possessions can be devastating to your success. The pragmatic approach can be crippling. And for Baylor, this often means putting the ball in Manu Lecomte’s hands and hoping something great happens. Sometimes, like in those first three clips, it works. But it’s not sustainable, especially once Baylor and Lecomte face the weekly 2-game grind of the Big 12 season.

They need to find a way to get easier looks on offense, and one easy way to do it would be to play with more tempo and assertiveness on offense. Baylor has been ranked lower than 250th in Kenpom’s Adjusted Tempo metric in each of the last five seasons. They’ve been lower than 300th in four of those seasons. I’m not holding my breath that their pace will rapidly increase. But even if it doesn’t, there are still minor steps they could take. Get into a secondary break. If it doesn’t work, call your sets quickly. Start the action quickly. It doesn’t have to be such a slog.

Coming Up: 12/9 vs. Randall, 12/14 vs. Texas Southern

6. Oklahoma Sooners (Last Week: 6th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 6-1, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 30th, +17.53

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 112.8, 32nd, 5th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 95.2, 31st, 6th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 77.4, 6th, 1st



So what’s going on with Kameron McGusty and Rashard Odomes? These two were arguably Oklahoma’s two best players last season. McGusty led the Sooners in scoring among non-Jordan Woodard players at 10.9 PPG (Woodard only played 19 games last season due to a season-ending injury). Odomes was 2nd in that category as he averaged 10.1 PPG. These two also were two of the top three Sooners in % of minutes played, as McGusty played 61% of minutes while Odomes played 63.6% of minutes.

This season? It’s harsh to say as we’re only seven games into the season for Oklahoma, but these two have been a bit of a disappointment. Check out some of their key stats from this season and how they compare to last season.

Both are clearly getting fewer opportunities. Should they be, though? I’d argue Odomes should be seeing more of the court. His offensive rating and win shares per 40 minutes are essentially the same as last season. He’s shooting better this season, making 61% of 2-pointers compared to 50% last season. Some of this can be explained by the small sample size and the easier non-conference schedule. Once Oklahoma reaches Big 12 play, that 61% on 2-pointers will likely fall. But still, at this point, he doesn’t seem to be playing noticeably worse than last season. And unlike McGusty, his minutes aren’t getting cut into in by Trae Young. Christian James and Brady Manek play similar positions to Odomes, but James was there during the 2017 season and Manek has basically taken Kristian Doolittle’s minutes — Manek is playing 60% of minutes this season; Doolittle was playing 61% of minutes last year. Odomes is fouling more this season. He’s committing 5.6 fouls per 40 minutes, compared to 3.0 fouls per 40 minutes last season. So this might be as simple as — “if he quits fouling, he’ll return to last season’s playing time.”

McGusty is the more curious case. It really does seem like he has lost his spot to Trae Young (and to a lesser extent, Jordan Shepherd). Not only that, it seems like McGusty taking a backseat to Young has affected his confidence. McGusty was never a super efficient player last season. His offensive rating was barely over 100 last year. But this year, it’s dipped down to 89.3. He’s currently 5-22 on 3-pointers (23%) and is turning the ball over 3x as often as he’s assisting teammates (TO Rate of 15.3% compared to an Assist Rate of 5.9%). This is a kid who scored 22 points in a home win over TCU to close out the regular season last year. He had a 5-game stretch in January where he scored 17, 19, 21, 10, and 22 points. He’s a talented kid, but it looks like he’s fallen out of favor a bit this season.

Here’s the tough question for Oklahoma. Is it worth finding the minutes and opportunities at this time to get these two going? This is clearly Trae Young’s team. His usage rate is 37% — 3rd in the nation. He’s taking a third of all shots when’s on the court. His Offensive Rating is 125.9, he’s shooting 38% on 3’s, and he’s got an Assist Rate of 46.5%. This isn’t going to become a more balanced team. It’s Trae’s way, and it’s difficult to argue it shouldn’t be. The kid is revolutionary right now. However, getting Odomes and McGusty going could move this team from being quite good to very good. I think they need them. We’ll see if Lon Kruger thinks the same thing. The Friday night matchup vs. USC will be a good matchup to see if Kruger taps into their talent against a better opponent.

Coming Up: 12/8 at USC

7. Texas Longhorns (Last Week: 7th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 6-2, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 25th, +18.44

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 108.7, 74th, 10th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 90.3, 7th, 2nd

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 68.7, 248th, 8th

I’ve been really impressed by the mature development of Kerwin Roach this season. There’s no denying that last season was a difficult one for Roach in his sophomore campaign. Roach was saddled with PG duties, and it never quite worked. He averaged 9.9 PPG on just 40% shooting from the field. His Offensive Rating was a paltry 92.2. It was a struggle for much of the season.

Roach looks like an entirely different player so far this season. He looks free; he seems to be playing a couple MPH faster than last season, which is extra impressive considering Roach’s already lightning-fast pace. But he doesn’t look wild or out of control. He’s playing within himself despite that increased freedom and maturity. He’s averaging 11.1 PPG on 63% shooting from the field. His Offensive Rating is 120.5, the best number among Texas starters.

Most importantly, Roach is taking (and making) the shots that he should be taking. Last year, he settled for far too many mid-range jumpers, long-twos, and 3-pointers. He shot just 44% on 2-pointers and 28% on 3’s. Take a look at his shot chart from last season, courtesy of Synergy Sports. There are way too many midrange and long 2’s there. 21% of 2-pointers he took last season were in the midrange or long 2 area. There’s also too many 3-pointers considering how poorly he shot them.

This season, Roach has realized he doesn’t need to settle. He is so freaking quick; he scoots his way into the paint with one dribble and one blinding first step. He needs to be taking his shots in the restricted area, and that’s exactly what he’s doing this season. He’s currently shooting 78% on 2-pointers, and this season’s shot chart reflects what I assume Texas coaches want to see out of Roach. The midrange and long 2’s have basically been abandoned. Just 12.5% of his 2-pointers this season are coming from that midrange and long 2 area, compared to 21% last season. He’s shooting an insane 83% on shots in the restricted area; that will probably come down a bit, but still, all signs are currently positive.

Look at these two drives he made in Tuesday night’s win against VCU. In that first clip, Roach easily could have settled. It’s an end-of-half situation. A lot of college players tend to do exactly that in those scenarios, but he doesn’t. He uses his speed, driving ability, and finishing skill to his advantage and gets into the paint for an easy lay-in. The second drive is just a remarkable piece of skill, ball-handling, and burst.

If Roach’s shooting profile continues to look like this, I see no reason why his success shouldn’t continue. He may not shoot 83% on shots at the rim, but that number isn’t going to plummet. Roach has all the athletic tools, and he’s finally put it all together this season. This is why you shouldn’t give up on freshmen or sophomores. They continue to develop and mature. That’s what Roach has done this season.

Coming Up: 12/12 vs. Michigan

8. Kansas State Wildcats (Last Week: 8th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 8-1, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 34th, +16.43

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 113.7, 24th, 4th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 97.3, 61st, 9th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 67.0, 311th, 9th



I’ve used this Kansas State space to talk about the play of Kamau Stokes and Barry Brown so far this season. But I haven’t yet talked about Kansas State’s two other best players — Xavier Sneed and Dean Wade. Let’s do that this week.

Xavier Sneed is showing signs of improvement in his sophomore season. His scoring has increased from 7.1 PPG to 11 PPG. He’s shooting 35% on 3-pointers and 55% on 2-pointers. His Offensive Rating has increased from 106.8 to 116.5, despite the increase in minutes and opportunities, which can sometimes negatively affect efficiency. You always hear about 3-and-D guys in the NBA; Sneed is the perfect college version of this. He is a capable shooter and he’s a good wing defender with good size at 6’5″, 210 pounds.

Sneed is playing with a decisiveness this season that he didn’t have last year. He’s processing the speed of the game much quicker and making good decisions quickly. Check out his performance in Kansas State’s win over Vanderbilt in the clip below.

You can see his decisiveness immediately in that clip. In the first possession, Sneed comes off a screen, pump-fakes his defender, takes one dribble to his left, and pulls up for a jumper. Everything is fluid. Each movement has a purpose. In the third possession starting at 0:11, Sneed shows a part of his game that we didn’t see often last season as he takes his man off the dribble and finishes at the rim.

The possession starting at 0:25 is perhaps my favorite from Sneed from the Vanderbilt game. Sneed provides perimeter shooting and floor spacing, and opponents know this. Watch how fast the Vandy defender closes out on Sneed once Dean Wade makes the crosscourt pass to Sneed. Sneed does a great job of immediately attacking the hard closeout. It’s one dribble to the left and then it’s, boom, up for the jumper. There’s no hesitation or doubt in his movement. I’m encouraged by his play thus far. He’s going to be a consistently good player for Bruce Weber for the next three years.

If you just looked at Dean Wade’s stat line in the box score of the Vanderbilt game, you might not think he played a very good game. He only scored 6 points, grabbed 7 rebounds, and fouled out. But that does a disservice to the other things Wade does on the floor. I clipped together some of the great reads and passes Wade made in the Vanderbilt game.

Kansas State will often design sets to get Wade isolated on one block. He then does a good job of not playing too quickly in the post. When he receives a post entry pass, he pauses and surveys the court. He never immediately makes a move. You could describe him as a ponderous post player. If a double comes, he rarely panics. He takes on the double-team and because of his initial patience during his postup, he has the floor awareness to know where to go with his pass. Being 6’10” doesn’t hurt. That’s an underrated part of being that tall — having the ability to easily see over one or two defenders to identify an open pass is a nice advantage.

In the above clip, look how easily Wade takes on the double-team on the second possession (starting at 0:11). He calmly dribbles out of the double, finds a cutting Stokes who then delivers a pass for an easy lay-in. Wade gets no recorded statistic for this play. The box score won’t show it (at least not until hockey assists are added), but these are the positive things Wade does for Kansas State. He makes another great pass out of a double-team in the possession starting at 0:22 that leads to a shooting foul. That too won’t show up in the box score.

Wade is playing very well this season, but his passing is what’s most encouraging to me. His Assist Rate has risen from 13.1% last season to 20.6% this season, per Kenpom. His Offensive Rating is 136.7, which ranks 26th in the entire nation and is up from 120.0 last season. He’s playing incredibly efficiently, and it’s paying dividends for Kansas State.

Coming Up: 12/9 vs. Tulsa

9. Iowa State Cyclones (Last Week: 9th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 5-2, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 62nd, +11.21

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 111.4, 48th, 8th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 100.2, 96th, 10th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 70.5, 156th, 7th

Lindell Wigginton is probably the 2nd best freshman in the Big 12 right now if you’re ranking freshmen on production and not on potential. This is pretty crazy to say considering two of the freshmen in the league are Trae Young and Mohamed Bamba. Young has clearly been the best freshman thus far, but Wigginton is 2nd on my list ahead of Bamba.

Wigginton’s play is a lesson as to why we need to be patient with freshmen. In his first two games, Wigginton averaged 9 points, shot 4-15 from the field (27%), averaged 2.5 rebounds, and recorded 6 assists to 7 turnovers. He looked skittish and out of control. In the five games since, he is averaging 17.6 points while shooting 31-64 from the field (48%) and 13-26 from 3 (50%). He’s pulling down 5.2 rebounds per game and has 13 assists to 10 turnovers. He looks much more under control now. It takes these guys a bit to figure out the college game.

If you watch an Iowa State game, you’ll hear an announcer mention how Wigginton is the highest Iowa State recruit since Craig Brackins, who was a freshman way back in the 2007-08 season. It’s been awhile since Iowa State has had a guy with this much immediate raw talent. He was ranked 31st in the final RSCI rankings for 2017 — his highest ranking was 24th at Rivals, where he was a 5-star recruit. His talent is obvious; he’s going to be a 13-17 PPG scorer for however long he is college.

I expressed concern before the season if Iowa State would have enough perimeter shooting besides Donovan Jackson. I talked about Nick Weiler-Babb’s shooting in last week’s Power Rankings post. Now it’s Wigginton’s turn. What’s surprised me most about his game so far has been his perimeter shooting. Wigginton was known as a scorer coming out of high school, but there were question marks about his shooting ability. Could he be a consistent knockdown shooter? So far, the answer is yes. Check out his shot chart from Synergy Sports.

Opponents might want to close out a little more aggressively at the top of the key and on the right wing, no? He’s had a lot of looks from the left wing; I have to assume that percentage will rise a bit. There’s promising signs here. He’ll also start to finish a little better at the rim as he gets more experience; it takes freshman time to adjust to collegiate length, and he’s too athletic not to be good at the rim.

When you watch Wigginton play, you’ll notice his athleticism on his jumper. Check out the clip below. He REALLY elevates on his jumper (check out how high he jumps on that third 3 when he is fouled). He has a consistent jumper, even if it’s not 100% fundamentally sound. He might jump higher than most shooters, jump forward more than most, and his right elbow might flare out a bit too much, but the release and follow-through are both smooth and the ball rotation looks good each time. It’s consistent each time.

I’m excited to watch him against Iowa tonight. This will be his first matchup against fellow high-major players since the opener at Missouri. It’s fun to watch freshmen in intense rivalry matchups. Do they feed off the intensity or does it overwhelm them a bit in their first college experience? Now that I’ve touted his shooting, watch him go 1-6 from 3 tonight. But he’s a very talented scorer who can get his. That’ll be needed in games like this.

Coming Up: 12/7 vs. Iowa, 12/10 vs. Alcorn State

10. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Last Week: 9th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 7-1, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 50th, +13.67

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 110.0, 56th, 9th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 96.4, 46th, 8th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 71.2, 118th, 5th



Oklahoma State has only played one game since last week’s Power Rankings post, and it was against the lowest-ranked team in Kenpom — Mississippi Valley State. So it’s difficult to ascertain too much information from that game.

To be honest, it’s been difficult to ascertain too much information from Oklahoma State’s entire non-conference schedule. Their NCSOS (non-conference strength of schedule) is currently 346th in Kenpom’s SOS metric. That’s the 6th easiest NCSOS in the entire nation. It’s just been a lot of dreck. The only quality opponent was Texas A&M. Other than that, six teams were ranked outside the top-250 of Kenpom, and Pittsburgh is currently ranked 159th and is potentially the worst high-major team in the country.

I understand why they scheduled so light to start the season. They have a younger team who lost three starters off of last season’s team and lost their head coach. It can also be difficult to schedule when you have a coaching change; there can be complications. That’s why I’m looking forward to their upcoming slate. They face Wichita State at home, Florida State in Miami, and Tulsa at home in their next three games. We’ll learn a lot more about Oklahoma State in those three games than we have so far this season.

Coming Up: 12/9 vs. Wichita State