• Ipsos and Newspoll surveys put Labor on 53% and Coalition on 47% • Turnbull increases lead over Bill Shorten as preferred PM in Newspoll

This article is more than 3 years old

This article is more than 3 years old

Last week’s big-spending, big-taxing budget hasn’t delivered the Turnbull government an immediate political lifeline, with two new opinion polls suggesting Labor retains a comfortable election-winning lead.

The latest survey of 1,716 voters taken by Newspoll over the weekend immediately following the 2017 budget has Labor ahead of the Coalition on the two-party preferred measure 53% to 47%.

The previous Newspoll, published three weeks ago, had Labor ahead 52% to 48%.

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A separate Ipsos survey for Fairfax Media has the same two-party preferred result – 53% to 47%. The last poll, in March, had Labor ahead by 55% to 45%.

Newspoll does have some welcome news for the prime minister. The poll, published by the Australian on Sunday night, suggests Malcolm Turnbull has increased his lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister post-budget, 44% to 31%.

There is also positive movement in the prime minister’s net satisfaction rating. Turnbull’s rating is now minus 20. It was minus 25 in the previous Newspoll.

The two new polls have lined up precisely with a post-budget ReachTel poll taken for Sky News at the end of last week, which indicated Labor was still ahead on the two-party preferred measure 53% to 47%.

A new Guardian Essential poll will be published on Tuesday.

Close examination of polling data suggests budget “bounces” are more myth than reality but the government will be hoping last Tuesday’s economic statement marks the beginning of a political recovery.

Turnbull has lost the past 12 Newspolls. Tony Abbott lost 30 consecutive Newspolls when he was replaced as the Liberal leader.

While the contents of the budget have troubled some government conservatives, thus far, the government has maintained internal discipline since the economic statement was delivered last Tuesday.

Play Video 6:27 Budget 2017 summary – video

While the budget has generally been well received, current indications suggest the government is unlikely to win the necessary Senate support to increase the Medicare levy by 0.5% in lower income brackets.

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The proposed Medicare levy increase is the biggest revenue measure in the budget. The government has proposed the tax increase to help fund the National Disability Insurance Scheme.

Labor says it will support a 0.5% rise for people earning $87,000 or more. The Greens are considering a more progressive version of the Labor model. Nick Xenophon has expressed concern about the impact of the tax rise on low income workers.

Labor, the Greens and the NXT also favour extending the current 2% deficit levy for workers earning over $180,000 to help pay for the NDIS.

The government has ruled out extending the deficit levy, saying it will end on 1 July.

The government will however win the necessary parliament support for a new $6bn levy on the big banks, which has infuriated the industry.

Labor has indicated it supports the proposed levy.

On Sunday, the treasurer, Scott Morrison, acknowledged the banks could pass the costs of the levy through to their customers.

“I mean, banks will find any way they can to charge their customers more with fees and charges,” the treasurer told the ABC.