No matter how much some college football coaches try to tell you otherwise at their yearly national signing day news conferences, recruiting rankings matter.

The top of the 2020 NFL draft was yet another set of data showing that players ranked as four- and five-star recruits coming out of high school are more likely to end up reaching the NFL.

Using the recruiting rankings from Rivals.com for reference, 21 of the 32 players chosen in Thursday night’s first round were rated as at least four-star recruits. Of those 21, seven were five-star recruits. When you consider that there are typically somewhere in the range of 30-35 five-star prospects, 300 or so four-star prospects, and hundreds of other recruits with two- and three-star ratings in a given recruiting class, that’s a pretty good hit rate.

Those high-ranking draftees typically represent the top performing programs in college football. This year, LSU, Alabama and Ohio State combined for 12 of the 32 first-rounders. But not every school can recruit at that level and are forced to search for diamonds in the rough to help them win games and develop into draft prospects.

That got us wondering which programs develop the most low-level recruits — unranked, two-star and three-star prospects — into players picked in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. So we went through each FBS school’s draft picks from the past 10 years (2020 draft included) and looked up those draftees’ Rivals recruiting rankings.

J.J. Watt was a two-star recruit who began his career at Central Michigan before becoming a star at Wisconsin and in the NFL. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio) More

Here’s what we found:

The 10 programs that developed the most three-star (or lower) recruits into Round 1-3 picks in the last 10 years are Ohio State (14), Wisconsin (13), Boise State (12), LSU (12), Stanford (12), Louisville (11), Washington (11), Mississippi State (10), TCU (10) and Utah (10).

Many of the programs that end up atop recruiting rankings are still finding high-upside three-star recruits as well, and no program is doing that better than Ohio State.

OSU has had 43 players go in the top three rounds of the draft over the last 10 years, and 14 of them were rated at three stars or below — more than any other program. Six of those players went in the first round.

LSU isn’t far behind. Of the 45 Tigers picked in the top three rounds since 2011, 12 were ranked at three stars or below. That figure includes three 2020 first-rounders: Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

By comparison, Alabama has had 54 players drafted in those rounds, with just six rated at three stars or below. Notre Dame (3/24), USC (2/23), Georgia (3/22) and Oklahoma (4/21) all had a similarly low percentage. That, of course, is also a reflection of how well those programs recruit.

It could be argued that no program is doing more with less talent than Wisconsin. In the Rivals.com era (dating back to 2002), Wisconsin’s average team recruiting rank is 41.7. Yet the Badgers are routinely developing top NFL draft choices. Over the last 10 years, 18 Badgers have gone in the top three rounds. Thirteen of those players were ranked at three stars or lower and six went in the first round.

Not only did Boise State have the highest number of draftees among Group of Five programs, it tied Stanford and LSU for third-most three-star-to-NFL stories in all of FBS. The Broncos have had nine three-stars, two two-stars and one unranked player go in the first three rounds. The unranked player was walk-on linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, a first-round selection of the Dallas Cowboys in 2018.

The Pac-12 was well-represented in this study with Stanford, Washington and Utah all producing NFL players at a high rate. Of that group, Utah had the highest hit rate on three-star talent, with 10 of its 13 top picks earning three-star rankings in high school. For Stanford, it was 12 of 20 while 11 of Washington’s 19 picks were three-star or lower.

Louisville leads the way out of the ACC with 11 of its 14 high-round picks ranking as three-star recruits. That includes five first-rounders.

TCU has also developed its talent well with 10 of its 11 Round 1-3 picks coming in as three- or two-star recruits. Four of those 10 ended up as first-rounders in the NFL.

Temple has also identified some real diamonds in the rough and got them to the NFL. Of the program’s seven top-three round picks, only one (Matt Hennessy) was a three-star recruit. The others were either rated two stars or were walk-ons who were unranked. Also of note in the AAC, Connecticut has produced a surprisingly high amount of top draft choices (seven) relative to the program’s lack of on-field success. Temple and UConn were matched at seven by UCF, a program with a much more fertile recruiting base.

Below is a look at how every FBS team has fared with lower-level recruits over the past 10 years. The list is sorted by conference in alphabetical order. A more detailed look including all the players is available at the bottom of this post.

Note: Drafts from 2011-20, Rounds 1, 2 and 3 only

American Athletic Conference

Cincinnati

Total draft choices: 5

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 2

2-star: 3

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Connecticut

Total: 7

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 2

2-star: 5

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Byron Jones

East Carolina

Total: 1

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 1

Round 1: None

Houston

Total: 5

4/5 star: 1

3-star: 4

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: D.J. Hayden, William Jackson

Memphis

Total: 5

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 2

2-star: 2

Unranked: 1

Round 1: Dontari Poe, Paxton Lynch

SMU

Total: 3

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 2

2-star: 0

Unranked: 1

Round 1: None

South Florida

Total: 3

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 3

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Temple

Total: 7

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 1

2-star: 4

Unranked: 2

Round 1: Muhammad Wilkerson, Haason Reddick

UCF

Total: 9

4/5 star: 2

3-star: 4

2-star: 3

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Blake Bortles, Breshad Perriman

None: Navy, Tulane, Tulsa

ACC

Boston College

Total: 10

4/5 star: 2

3-star: 7

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Anthony Castonzo, Luke Kuechly, Chris Lindstrom

Clemson

Total: 27

4/5 star: 20

3-star: 5

2-star: 2

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Vic Beasley, Isaiah Simmons

Duke

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 1

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Laken Tomlinson, Daniel Jones

Florida State

Total: 25

4/5 star: 17

3-star: 8

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Christian Ponder, Bjoern Werner, Xavier Rhodes, Cameron Erving

Georgia Tech

Total: 3

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 2

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Louisville

Total: 14

4/5 star: 3

3-star: 11

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Calvin Pryor, Marcus Smith, DeVante Parker, Sheldon Rankins, Jaire Alexander

Miami

Total: 16

4/5 star: 11

3-star: 5

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Phillip Dorsett, David Njoku

NC State

Total: 12

4/5 star: 5

3-star: 4

2-star: 3

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Bradley Chubb, Garrett Bradbury

North Carolina

Total: 15

4/5 star: 7

3-star: 8

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Jonathan Cooper, Sylvester Williams, Eric Ebron, Mitchell Trubisky

Pittsburgh

Total: 6

4/5 star: 2

3-star: 4

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Aaron Donald

Syracuse

Total: 3

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 2

Unranked: 1

Round 1: Chandler Jones, Justin Pugh

Virginia

Total: 4

4/5 star: 2

3-star: 1

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Virginia Tech

Total: 8

4/5 star: 5

3-star: 3

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Kyle Fuller, Terrell Edmunds

Wake Forest

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 2

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Kevin Johnson

Big 12

Baylor

Total: 9

4/5 star: 5

3-star: 2

2-star: 2

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Kendall Wright

Iowa State

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 1

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Kansas State

Total: 6

4/5 star: 2

3-star: 4

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Oklahoma

Total: 21

4/5 star: 17

3-star: 3

2-star: 0

Unranked: 1

Round 1: Lane Johnson, Baker Mayfield

Oklahoma State

Total: 6

4/5 star: 2

3-star: 3

2-star: 0

Unranked: 1

Round 1: Justin Blackmon, Brandon Weeden

Note: Weeden graduated high school in 2001, before the Rivals.com era. He then played minor league baseball before enrolling at OSU in 2007. He was not assigned a ranking.

TCU

Total: 11

4/5 star: 1

3-star: 8

2-star: 2

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Jason Verrett, Josh Doctson, L.J. Collier, Jeff Gladney

Texas

Total: 11

4/5 star: 9

3-star: 1

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Texas Tech

Total: 4

4/5 star: 1

3-star: 3

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Patrick Mahomes, Jordyn Brooks

West Virginia

Total: 12

4/5 star: 6

3-star: 4

2-star: 2

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Kevin White, Karl Joseph

None: Kansas

Big Ten

Illinois

Total: 10

4/5 star: 2

3-star: 7

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Whitney Mercilus, A.J. Jenkins

Indiana

Total: 4

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 4

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Iowa

Total: 14

4/5 star: 5

3-star: 7

2-star: 2

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Riley Reiff, Brandon Scherff, T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant

Maryland

Total: 6

4/5 star: 2

3-star: 4

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Darnell Savage

Michigan

Total: 20

4/5 star: 15

3-star: 4

2-star: 0

Unranked: 1

Round 1: None

Michigan State

Total: 8

4/5 star: 2

3-star: 2

2-star: 3

Unranked: 1

Round 1: Darqueze Dennard, Trae Waynes, Jack Conklin

Minnesota

Total: 3

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 2

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Nebraska

Total: 8

4/5 star: 2

3-star: 4

2-star: 0

Unranked: 2

Round 1: Prince Amukamara

Ohio State

Total: 43

4/5 star: 29

3-star: 13

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Bradley Roby, Darron Lee, Malik Hooker, Gareon Conley, Denzel Ward, Damon Arnette

Penn State

Total: 15

4/5 star: 11

3-star: 2

2-star: 1

Unranked: 1

Round 1: None

Purdue

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 2

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Ryan Kerrigan

Rutgers

Total: 6

4/5 star: 2

3-star: 3

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Wisconsin

Total: 18

4/5 star: 5

3-star: 9

2-star: 3

Unranked: 1

Round 1: J.J. Watt, Gabe Carimi, Kevin Zeitler, Travis Frederick, T.J. Watt, Ryan Ramczyk

None: Northwestern

Conference USA

Charlotte

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 1

2-star: 0

Unranked: 1

Round 1: None

Florida Atlantic

Total: 4

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 1

2-star: 3

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Florida International

Total: 3

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 3

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Louisiana Tech

Total: 3

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 1

2-star: 2

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Vernon Butler

Marshall

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 2

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Middle Tennessee

Total: 1

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Old Dominion

Total: 1

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Rice

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 1

Unranked: 1

Round 1: None

Southern Miss

Total: 4

4/5 star: 2

3-star: 2

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

UTEP

Total: 1

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 0

Unranked: 1

Round 1: None

UTSA

Total: 1

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Marcus Davenport

Western Kentucky

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 2

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

None: North Texas, UAB

Independent

BYU

Total: 5

4/5 star: 3

3-star: 1

2-star: 0

Unranked: 1

Round 1: Ziggy Ansah

Notre Dame

Total: 24

4/5 star: 21

3-star: 3

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Tyler Eifert

UMass

Total: 1

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

None: Army, Liberty, New Mexico State

MAC

Buffalo

Total: 1

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Khalil Mack

Central Michigan

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 2

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Eric Fisher

Kent State

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 2

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Miami (Ohio)

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 1

2-star: 0

Unranked: 1

Round 1: None

Northern Illinois

Total: 3

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 2

Unranked: 1

Round 1: Jimmie Ward

Ohio

Total: 1

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Toledo

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 1

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Western Michigan

Total: 3

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 1

2-star: 2

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Corey Davis

None: Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan

Mountain West

Boise State

Total: 13

4/5 star: 1

3-star: 9

2-star: 2

Unranked: 1

Round 1: Shea McClellin, Doug Martin, Leighton Vander Esch

Colorado State

Total: 5

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 3

2-star: 2

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Fresno State

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 1

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Hawaii

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 1

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Nevada

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 1

Unranked: 1

Round 1: None

San Diego State

Total: 6

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 2

2-star: 3

Unranked: 1

Round 1: Rashaad Penny

San Jose State

Total: 1

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 2

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Utah State

Total: 6

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 1

2-star: 5

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Jordan Love

Wyoming

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 1

Unranked: 1

Round 1: Josh Allen

None: Air Force, New Mexico, UNLV

Pac-12

Arizona

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 2

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Arizona State

Total: 6

4/5 star: 1

3-star: 4

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Damarious Randall, Brandon Aiyuk

California

Total: 11

4/5 star: 4

3-star: 6

2-star: 0

Unranked: 1

Round 1: Cameron Jordan

Colorado

Total: 8

4/5 star: 1

3-star: 7

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Nate Solder, Jimmy Smith

Oregon

Total: 12

4/5 star: 6

3-star: 6

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Kyle Long, Marcus Mariota, Justin Herbert

Oregon State

Total: 8

4/5 star: 3

3-star: 4

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Stanford

Total: 20

4/5 star: 8

3-star: 12

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: David DeCastro

UCLA

Total: 15

4/5 star: 13

3-star: 2

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

USC

Total: 23

4/5 star: 21

3-star: 2

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Utah

Total: 13

4/5 star: 3

3-star: 10

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Star Lotulelei

Washington

Total: 19

4/5 star: 8

3-star: 10

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Desmond Trufant, Marcus Peters, John Ross, Vita Vea

Washington State

Total: 3

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 1

2-star: 1

Unranked: 1

Round 1: Deone Bucannon

SEC

Alabama

Total: 54

4/5 star: 48

3-star: 6

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Marcell Dareus, Chance Warmack, Ryan Kelly, Josh Jacobs

Arkansas

Total: 7

4/5 star: 4

3-star: 3

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Frank Ragnow

Auburn

Total: 16

4/5 star: 13

3-star: 3

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Nick Fairley, Dee Ford

Florida

Total: 27

4/5 star: 21

3-star: 6

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Jarrad Davis, Taven Bryan

Georgia

Total: 22

4/5 star: 19

3-star: 3

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Dandre Baker

Kentucky

Total: 7

4/5 star: 2

3-star: 5

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Bud Dupree, Josh Allen

LSU

Total: 45

4/5 star: 33

3-star: 10

2-star: 2

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Morris Claiborne, Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Mississippi State

Total: 17

4/5 star: 7

3-star: 9

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Montez Sweat, Johnathan Abram

Missouri

Total: 13

4/5 star: 4

3-star: 6

2-star: 3

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Aldon Smith, Shane Ray, Charles Harris

Ole Miss

Total: 11

4/5 star: 8

3-star: 1

2-star: 1

Unranked: 1

Round 1: Evan Engram

South Carolina

Total: 11

4/5 star: 7

3-star: 3

2-star: 0

Unranked: 1

Round 1: Hayden Hurst, Javon Kinlaw

Tennessee

Total: 9

4/5 star: 7

3-star: 2

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Texas A&M

Total: 18

4/5 star: 10

3-star: 7

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: Ryan Tannehill, Johnny Manziel, Germain Ifedi

Vanderbilt

Total: 6

4/5 star: 3

3-star: 3

2-star: 0

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Sun Belt

Appalachian State

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 1

Unranked: 1

Round 1: None

Arkansas State

Total: 1

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

Georgia Southern

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 1

2-star: 0

Unranked: 1

Round 1: None

Louisiana Lafayette

Total: 3

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 3

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

South Alabama

Total: 1

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 0

Unranked: 1

Round 1: None

Texas State

Total: 1

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 0

2-star: 0

Unranked: 1

Round 1: None

Troy

Total: 2

4/5 star: 0

3-star: 1

2-star: 1

Unranked: 0

Round 1: None

None: Coastal Carolina, Georgia State, UL Monroe

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