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Ahead of the 2016 election, Elizabeth Warren made a calculation. She had spent the last several years in the U.S. Senate building a base of power and wielding that influence to shape White House personnel and policy decisions, particularly in the Treasury Department. She planned to do the same when it came to Hillary Clinton who, all of Washington presumed, was going to be the Democratic nominee for president. Warren first met with Clinton in December 2014 and urged Clinton not to surround herself with Wall Street bankers. The Clinton campaign followed up with her chief aide, Dan Geldon, who was also chief of staff on Warren’s 2020 campaign. At the time, Warren was in the midst of a high-profile campaign against an Obama-nominated banker, Antonio Weiss, to the Treasury Department — a fight that she would later win. Geldon brought it up.

Is it better to endorse Sanders or preserve capital to influence Biden?

“He was intently focused on personnel issues, laid out a detailed case against the Bob Rubin school of Democratic policy makers, was very critical of the Obama administration’s choices, and explained at length the opposition to Antonio Weiss,” wrote a Clinton official in an email describing the conversation, later published by WikiLeaks. “We then carefully went through a list of people they do like, which EW sent over to HRC earlier … Over all, it was a polite and engaged but not exactly warm conversation. They seem wary – and pretty convinced that the Rubin folks have the inside track with us whether we realize it yet or not – but open to engagement and to be proven wrong.” In 2016, Warren met with Clinton again and reiterated the demand to shut down the revolving door between Wall Street and Washington, making the pressure public at a speech at the Center for American Progress. “Personnel is policy,” she said. “When we talk about personnel, we don’t mean advisers who just pay lip service to Hillary’s bold agenda, coupled with a sigh, a knowing glance, and a twiddling of thumbs until it’s time for the next swing through the revolving door, serving government then going back to the very same industries they regulate. We don’t mean Citigroup or Morgan Stanley or BlackRock getting to choose who runs the economy in this country so they can capture our government. No.”

BlackRock was a reference to CEO Larry Fink, a rumored choice for Clinton’s Treasury secretary. In order to win influence over Clinton’s personnel decisions, Warren believed at the time, she needed both carrots and sticks. By spiking Obama nominees, she had proven that she had a stick. The carrot was her decision not to endorse Sen. Bernie Sanders during the primary, despite an ideological affinity among the two. Sanders wasn’t going to win, Warren calculated, so she ought to husband her political capital and put it to the best use influencing Clinton. Shortly after the Associated Press called the primary for Clinton, and after their second meeting, Warren endorsed. Warren, of course, would never get to test out her theory, as Clinton never got the chance to put together a cabinet, though the names floated toward the end of the campaign were arguably less bad — though still bad — than they would have been without Warren’s pressure. (Fink was swapped for Sheryl Sandberg or Lael Brainard.) And the decision came at a cost to Warren, as Sanders did better in the primary than most expected, and Warren took fire for a lack of loyalty, creating bad blood that spilled into the 2020 cycle. As Warren weighs again whether to endorse Sanders or stay neutral — allies are certain she would not endorse Joe Biden while the contest is still alive — that same calculation is at play again. Is it better to endorse Sanders or preserve capital to influence Biden?

Photo: Mark Peterson/Redux

The problem with this kind of calculation is that it relies on an utterly flawed premise: that influence is best won in return for political favors. To the extent that Clinton would have moderated her hiring of Wall Street executives as president, she would not have done so out of gratitude toward Warren, but out of a fear of what Warren was capable of. In 2013, as a member of the Banking Committee with a coalition of allies, both inside and outside, she had managed to block the appointment of Larry Summers to be chair of the Federal Reserve. That’s where her power came from: sticks, not carrots. And she was able to block Summers and other nominees because of her rock-solid alliance with activist elements of organized labor, outside progressive groups, and the broad social movement they represent. Her 2012 Senate campaign had smashed records for small donors. The stronger her bond to that outside movement, the more power she had on the inside.

Had Warren endorsed Sanders first, she’d likely have been able to bring more Sanders people with her when she switched to Clinton.