With two very different games under their belt this week, it’s time to try to put the two together for a full analysis of the Chicago Fire. Here are three takeaways from Week 17.

For the Chicago Fire, Week 17 was a confusing one.

It started with Chicago failing to do anything with a massive amount of shots in a 3-1 loss to the New York Red Bulls; it ended with a mid-week, 5-1 demolition of Atlanta United. Chewbacca lives on Endor and none of this makes any sense.

However, I do have three takeaways from the past week.

3. ‘Law of Averages’

After the Chicago Fire’s game against Atlanta, someone next to me said, ‘It’s just the law of averages. After the last game, we had to start scoring.’ First, I need to get some things out of the way real quick. I don’t remember very much AP Stats, but the Law of Averages is a statistical fallacy based around the idea that something will happen eventually because it’s probable. This is not true and belongs in the trash bin with the ‘hot hand’ fallacy. But it does bring up a great point about these two games.

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Against the New York Red Bulls, the Chicago Fire took 26 shots, eight of which went on target, and held over 60% of the possession. In that game, they scored a single goal, making it a conversion rate of less than 4% shooting, 12.5% when the shot is on goal, and only one goal in a little less than an hour of possession.

In just the first half against Atlanta, the Fire took 14 shots, seven on target, and had 75% of the possession. With their five goals, they had a strike rate of 35%, 71% when the shot is on goal, and on average scored once every seven minutes. My point is that numbers don’t make sense around this team. All that matters is who’s converting and who isn’t.