When it’s obvious to the public, it’s obviously wrong. This was the key take-away phrase from Lars Tvede book. This statement was first expressed in A Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing, a book by Joseph Granville, back in 1960.

What does this statement mean, and why is it important to Bitcoin market? To understand it, we need to, first of all, track the key factor behind price dynamics. At the end of the day only two things are important in terms of price movements. They are demand and supply. All other events and factors are secondary and just shape the first two.

If demand exceeds supply, price increases. If supply exceeds demand, then price decreases. This is economic common sense, but somehow just few people understand how to use it in a real life. In fact, one of the most profitable way of using it is a contrary thinking.

Contrary thinking can be summarized by just one phrase stated at the very beginning of the article. What it means is that when everyone constantly speaks about just one particular asset, then everyone, most likely,has already bought this particular asset, leaving no one to buy any additional unit. And what happens when there is no one to buy? Well, demand decreases sharply. And when demand decreases, price stumbles.

Ok, the conclusion is clear but how can what about timing? Contrary opinion strategy fully depends on timing. Otherwise strong trend most likely will smash your position and kick you out of the market.

One of the options is to check headlines. In his book Tvede provides a number of examples of key headlines in the mots respectable magazines and their timing. Here is a couple of situations he describes:

Dow Jones Industrial Average