If you found your way here, you probably know what this is about. Game 5 of the 2017 World Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Houston Astros was, at least back then, a great game. But for some months now we know that the Houston Astros cheated in the 2017 regular season and probably also the following years. They stole the opposing catcher’s signs and relayed them in real time to the hitters. There is little doubt left that they also cheated during the World Series in 2017.

A couple of weeks ago it was pointed out that it is probably pretty unlikely that the Astros hitters only swung at one breaking ball during this game 5. Tom Verducci claimed that there were no swinging strikes on breaking balls this day. Which actually isn’t true because there was one by Altuve in the bottom of the first inning for the strike out as you can see on Baseball Savant and on YouTube at around minute 41. But this doesn’t really make anything better.

So I thouhgt I would calculate the probability that this happens based on all sliders and curve balls Kershaw threw in 2017. I got the data from Baseball Savant but weirdly enough there is no data for the 1st of September 2017. So this day isn’t included. I’m sure it wouldn’t change a lot.

The following chart shows the cumulative probability of swings and misses of off Kerhsaw’s breaking balls for Game 5 of the 2017 World Series based on all breaking balls Kershaw threw in 2017: