Here’s how we know Mitch McConnell most likely has the votes to confirm SCOTUS nominee Brett Kavanaugh:

Mitch McConnell is a tactical guy. He is not always the most conservative, but he knows how when and where to pick his battles.

At times, he will schedule a show vote to appease the base. There are miles of posts we’ve written on the subject here at RedState. He knows when a vote will look good and when it won’t. For better or worse, he is typically right in this.

Other times, however, when he is at his most passionate, he will schedule a major vote only when he has the votes. His passion over the past two days is proof that this is the case with the Kavanaugh vote.

He gets one shot. He knows that. If Kavanaugh fails in the vote here, it’s over for Kavanaugh. So, McConnell is not going to go into this out of emotional frustration or impatience. If he has filed for cloture, and the vote is set for Friday, we know he’s got the votes.

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Because of a lack of public statement from several “swing” vote Republicans, reporters are speculating that their votes are still up in the air. However, I would disagree with that hypothesis.

I don’t think there’s a doubt at this point that Jeff Flake, Susan Collins, and Lisa Murkowski are with McConnell. Sure, Flake lives up to his last name, and has been a disappointment as a Republican Senator, but he lives to make people like him. Collins and Murkowski are the same way. So, you have your 51 votes right there.

Democrats biggest problem at this point is they have overreached and angered, energized and united the Republican base over their treatment of Kavanaugh:

But, this poll from NPR is an absolute killer for Democrats right now. A 2-point enthusiasm advantage for the Democrats is still an advantage but it was a 10-point advantage in July. Democrats can say Kavanaugh energizes their base, but it has also energized Republican voters and, more importantly, united them.

That means you can reasonably expect some blue state Senators to vote for Kavanaugh.

The Democrats most likely to end up voting for Kavanaugh would be Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, and Joe Donnolly of Indiania.

Claire McCaskil of Missouri might strongly consider voting yes as well.