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Re: [bitconf] State of the Coin 2012 September 19, 2012, 06:31:15 AM #14 Quote from: franky1 on September 19, 2012, 05:34:06 AM Quote from: jgarzik on September 19, 2012, 03:06:09 AM Quote from: Come-from-Beyond on September 18, 2012, 04:21:55 PM From the paper:



"Users: Difficult to estimate, but probably over 500,000 at this point."



How was it possible to assess this? Number of IPs? Number of addresses? Number of transactions?



Blatant guessing, based on: number of claimed mtgox users, number of peer nodes on network, number of forum users, previous data posts around here, ...



Not a reliable number at all. Just trying to find a number that we could say "probably over X"





Blatant guessing, based on: number of claimed mtgox users, number of peer nodes on network, number of forum users, previous data posts around here, ...Not a reliable number at all. Just trying to find a number that we could say "probably over X"

many graphs around.. but when it comes to regular users in the last year only about 20k of people online daily..





using such things as user numbers / of mtgox and bitcoinchat is not a good way to assess the population. Due to scammers making alias's, 'white knight' whistle blowers not wanting their original persona posting threads, many other reasons including forgetting passwords when using temporary emails to sign up.. the user account number compared to actual people would not be the same.



the chart above came from

http://bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk/

which has numerous charts to look at which should aid estimation of the population of the crypto community



it also shows the downward curve of user numbers in the last year. which might explain the slowing down of confirmation speeds, as their aint as many people to confirm.



guess bitcoinia and other items in the last year did scare people away

many graphs around.. but when it comes to regular users in the last year only about 20k of people online daily..using such things as user numbers / of mtgox and bitcoinchat is not a good way to assess the population. Due to scammers making alias's, 'white knight' whistle blowers not wanting their original persona posting threads, many other reasons including forgetting passwords when using temporary emails to sign up.. the user account number compared to actual people would not be the same.the chart above came fromwhich has numerous charts to look at which should aid estimation of the population of the crypto communityit also shows the downward curve of user numbers in the last year. which might explain the slowing down of confirmation speeds, as their aint as many people to confirm.guess bitcoinia and other items in the last year did scare people away

well, first off, your chart shows a bottoming out in early july and growth since then. the level it shows right now is equivalent to mid-may (*just from a fast lookover, based mostly on 'other' and 'united states' nodes)



second off, slowing down of confirmation speeds would be related to the # of transactions, # of people not including transaction fees, # of blocks being solved, # of transactions pools are including in blocks. the # of connectable IP addresses has a negligible effect. the only time it may factor in is if you're on a terribly slow connection which may cause your transaction to propagate a second or two slower than it would have with 15000 nodes, and in those one or two seconds, a block was solved (which also would have happened to have included your transaction)

well, first off, your chart shows a bottoming out in early july and growth since then. the level it shows right now is equivalent to mid-may (*just from a fast lookover, based mostly on 'other' and 'united states' nodes)second off, slowing down of confirmation speeds would be related to the # of transactions, # of people not including transaction fees, # of blocks being solved, # of transactions pools are including in blocks. the # of connectable IP addresses has a negligible effect. the only time it may factor in is if you're on a terribly slow connection which may cause your transaction to propagate a second or two slower than it would have with 15000 nodes, and in those one or two seconds, a block was solved (which also would have happened to have included your transaction)