Fast forward to 2013. As America drives toward a new era of energy self-sufficiency, Washington will be less willing to risk lives and spends billions on ensuring the free flow of oil and gas through dangerous places. That’s especially important for the Middle East — a region where Ottomans, then Europeans, and lately Americans have, for better and for worse, helped keep the peace. The United States isn’t about to abandon the region entirely, not with the global economy still so dependent on the flow of commerce through the Strait of Hormuz and Israel’s security at risk. But it’s natural that as America becomes less reliant on the Middle East for energy, Washington’s willingness to accept risks and burdens there will diminish, or at least become harder to justify in a fiscally constrained era.

Interestingly, even as America becomes less vulnerable to that region’s volatility, China will become more so — and more directly involved in its politics as a result. The International Energy Agency has forecast that China will import nearly 80 percent of its oil by 2030, and much of that crude will come from North Africa and the Middle East. Some estimates suggest that China holds larger shale gas deposits than even the United States, but for the moment it lacks the technology and know-how to exploit them.

Even if China gets up to speed quickly, it will take years for all the requisite infrastructure to be put in place and for its domestic oil and gas industry to mature to the point where it can deliver significant volumes year in and year out.

Thus as China’s willingness to intervene in the politics of other countries rises, its leaders will want to extend their influence. And energy-rich Middle Eastern governments that have lost big customers in America and Europe will welcome all the deep-pocketed foreign friends they can find.

Like all revolutions, America’s new energy bonanza raises some fascinating questions. How might a lighter U.S. presence and heavier Chinese involvement change the world’s most volatile neighborhood? What can the next generation of Saudi leaders expect for their country’s future in a world where OPEC has lost much of its market power? Will Qatar’s support for Muslim Brotherhood governments in other Arab states and China’s interest in using the United Arab Emirates as an offshore trading center for its currency leave the Saudis dangerously isolated? Can Iran’s revolution survive the need to build a more modern economy?

A world in which the United States is less involved in answering these questions is a new world indeed.

Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group and author of “Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World.” Kenneth A. Hersh is chief executive officer of NGP Energy Capital Management.