Just over a month ago Britain took the biggest (and in my opinion best) decision since 1945, to almost everyone’s surprise it voted to leave the European Union; more people voted for Brexit than any other issue in the UK’s history, voter turnout was the highest in decades and every pundit, journalist and politician said it would never happen. Even on polling day, every prediction from the ‘professional’ polling companies said remain had won, including one which said they had a 10 point lead, all turned out to be wrong. Trump’s polling has been awful, massive personal negatives with most polls putting Clinton ahead; all I suspect are wrong.

Britain’s establishment wanted Britain to remain, so assumed it would, because of a self entitlement, complacency or even snobbery. As Brexit dawned tears replaced champagne as the flowing liquid of choice in the remain camp.

America’s establishment assume Clinton’s got it in the bag, she is the safe candidate they say, she is progressive, a ‘normal’ choice for American voters. Well we don’t live in normal times. We live in the era of dissatisfaction, where sections of society have been ignored, despised and taken for granted for decades, not just in the US but the whole of the West. Brexit proves Trump can and will win.

A slight disclaimer here – British and American demographics are different, so Brexit cannot be a direct comparison to Trump but there are extraordinary comparisons to make. There are three main comparisons:

1. “A nation that cannot its borders is not a nation” – Reagan. Since 2004 under Tony Blair Britain’s borders have been open to an expanded Europe of poor ex-communist nations, such as Romania where minimum wage is 12x lower than in the UK, who could blame the Polish doctors who could earn more picking strawberries in Britain than working in Polish hospitals for moving.

But who could blame British voters who can’t afford houses, their kids don’t have school places, who have to wait hours in hospital ques or can’t get a job, all partly because of unsustainable immigration levels, for wanting to regain control of their own borders. US voters have had massive levels of population growth, particularly from poverty ridden South and Central American countries like Mexico. Trump wants a wall. Brexit promised immigration control. Voters want border controls – Hillary, like the remain campaign don’t.

2. The working class have been left behind – a cliche but the inconvenient truth for hypocrite socialists who embrace the embodiment of establishment. For decades disillusionment with Westminster and Washington has been rife outside the two capitals of unrepresentative Government. When, as in Britain, you purposefully ignore people who you see as beneath you, poorer than you and without a degree, resentment builds. Resentment turns into votes, Trump got these votes in the primaries and won so did Brexit. Never underestimate the so called ‘protest vote’.

3. “Make America Great Again” is a controversial, well known, positive, populist message, giving hope to the nostalgic workers of America. “Take back control” Vote Leave’s slogan is the same, it was spouted at every debate, drilled into the minds of voters on leaflets, posters, busses and t-shirts. Trump wearing his red hat (the same colour as Vote Leave’s infamous campaign) has used this short simple line to great effect, and Brexit proves this works. ‘Britain stronger In Europe’ the official remain campaign, had nothing even comparable to Vote Leave’s line. Could you tell me what Clinton’s slogan is? I suspect not. Even googling it shows no one line, her website is vague and twitter is useless, even Wikipedia cites 4 messages as her campaign slogans. “Vote Leave Take Back Control” was used in many contexts, control of the economy, borders, money, jobs, fishing… Trump is doing the same “Make America great, safe, strong… again” voters love it as it is understandable.

Trump is getting unforeseen turnouts at elections, rallies and protests; Vote Leave had the same on a smaller scale, both enthuse defused voters many of who have never voted before because they have radical solutions to massive problems.

Watch the polls on November 8th, however believe them at your own peril.