THE practice of aborting female foetuses is found mostly in China and other Asian countries. But it is prevalent in the Caucasus, too. Two new studies look at why—and suggest the practice may spread. If nature takes its course, 105 boys are born for every 100 girls. Boys are more vulnerable to childhood diseases, so a slight preponderance of them at birth ensures equal numbers at puberty. But in Armenia and Azerbaijan more than 115 boys are born for every 100 girls and in Georgia the ratio is 120. These are bigger distortions than in India. In all three the figure has risen sharply since 1991 (see chart). In 2010, reckons Marc Michael of New York University’s Abu Dhabi campus, the number of girls born was 10% lower than it would have been had the ratio been normal. The gap is second only to China’s.

The sex ratios in the Caucasus are especially distorted when a second or third child is born. In Armenia, among first children, there are 138 boys for every 100 girls. If the first child is a son, the next is more likely to be a girl than a boy (ie, reverse sex selection). But if the first child is a girl, son-preference goes off the scale. When the first child is a daughter, 61% of second children are sons. Armenian parents seem to plan family composition, not just size.

As elsewhere, cheap ultrasound machines, which can detect the sex of a foetus, made a difference. Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, such machines were rare because parts had military use and their export from the West was banned. As they spread after 1991, sex-selective abortions rose. Yet such machines also became more common in Ukraine and other nearby countries where sex ratios stayed stable. They rose in North Ossetia, part of the Russian Caucasus, and also in parts of Turkey, but only to 107.

What explains the Caucasian exception? The answer, the authors suggest, may be political: a preference for sons could be strong because all three countries have “frozen conflicts” which “might greatly diminish women’s bargaining powers such that men’s preference for sons determines family planning”. If so, that would be a remarkable reversal. In the 1970s the Soviet Union boasted that women there had more rights than their sisters elsewhere and the Soviet state suppressed religious discrimination against women. Son-preference in the Caucasus suggests that traditional values are reviving.

In other respects, the Caucasus may not be so exceptional. A study by John Bongaarts of the Population Council, a New York think-tank, uses surveys in 61 countries to calculate the sex ratios that would result if parents had the number of sons and daughters they wanted. It turns out that in half the countries, the desired ratio is more than 110 (higher than India’s, which is 108). Armenia and Azerbaijan are among those with the highest rates, but all over the world (especially Africa) parents say they want more sons. As Mr Bongaarts says, “there is a large pent-up demand for sex selection”. If the Caucasus is a guide, that demand can pretty easily be met.

Sources

“The mystery of missing female children in the Caucasus”, by Marc Michael Lawrence King, Liang Guo, Martin McKee, Erica Richardson and David Stuckler, International Perspectives on Reproductive Health, Vol 39, No 3

“The implementation of Preferences for Male Offspring”, by John Bongaarts, Population and Development Review, Vol 39, No 2