Democrats are determined to make exactly one Republican senator pay in November for supporting President Donald Trump’s new Supreme Court nominee: Nevada Sen. Dean Heller.

Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement last month jolted the battle for the Senate, and it is likely to be a central issue this fall as Republicans defend their 51-49 majority. Democrats are overwhelmingly on defense: Their vulnerable incumbents are under withering pressure from conservatives to back Brett Kavanaugh or be painted as obstructionists in pro-Trump states.


But the one exception is Heller, the sole Republican senator defending a seat in a state that Hillary Clinton won. After failing to mobilize voters effectively around the GOP blockade of Merrick Garland two years ago, Democrats are determined to take advantage of their one chance to make a Republican pay for the party’s Supreme Court machinations.

Beating Heller is central to Democratic hopes of taking back the Senate in the future. And allies of Heller’s opponent, first-term Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen, say the high court vacancy is already helping.

“We’re seeing this nomination supercharge her campaign,” said Ilyse Hogue, president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, which is backing Rosen and spending heavily to influence the Supreme Court nomination fight. “There is certainly a talking point out there that the right has mobilized on Supreme Court nominations in a way progressives have not, and that is simply no longer true.”

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Even before Kennedy stepped down, Heller predicted a vacancy would drive turnout among conservatives. Republicans counter that while Democrats are energized now, a Supreme Court confirmation so close to Election Day will fire up the GOP base.

Even before Kennedy stepped down, Heller predicted a vacancy would drive turnout among conservatives. Republicans counter that while Democrats are energized now, a Supreme Court confirmation so close to Election Day will fire up the GOP base.

“The 2018 election is 100 percent about turnout,” said Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, the other Senate Republican with a credible challenger this fall. “Nevada is a state where people value their freedoms … any time we’re delivering on our promises it’s the right thing to be doing substantively but also the right to be doing politically because it energizes the voters.”

Rosen and Heller provide an easy contrast for voters on the Supreme Court. Rosen told Politico that while she’s still judging Kavanaugh’s record, “right now I couldn’t see myself voting yes,” for his confirmation. “Nevada is a pro-choice state,” Rosen added, arguing that Kavanaugh’s position on the future of Roe v. Wade could galvanize Nevadans, along with future court challenges to Obamacare and a 2013 opinion Kavanaugh wrote stopping the Obama administration from killing a nuclear waste repository in Yucca Mountain.

Heller, meanwhile, met with Kavanaugh last week and said in a statement immediately afterward that he had “no reservations in confidently supporting” the nominee.

Rosen said that quick turnaround shows Heller’s “most likely to choose Washington over the needs of Nevada families.” She didn’t dispute that the confirmation battle could excite Heller’s GOP base — which the senator predicted would be the case — but Rosen said it will do the same for Democrats.

Democrats say Heller’s quick endorsement of Kavanaugh is the linchpin of their strategy to portray him as a Trump yes-man this fall. Heller was long considered a pragmatic conservative who supported comprehensive immigration reform and even challenged the president on repealing Obamacare. But Democrats “find no evidence of that anymore,” said Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.).

“There was a moment and it was only a moment when I thought [Heller] was going to try to portray himself as somewhat independent,” Durbin said. “But he had obviously a come-to-Jesus political moment and wheeled around and said: ‘I’m a loyalist, start to finish.’”

Trump bristled at Heller’s effort to fight Obamacare repeal and rolling back Nevada’s Medicaid expansion, warning him publicly to get on board because he “wants to remain a senator.” Ever since, Heller has been on board the Trump train after mostly opposing his candidacy in 2016. It’s a marked contrast from Rep. Joe Heck (R-Nev.), who lost a Senate race in 2016 after unendorsing Trump.

Heller “has not stood up to Donald Trump or any of his wants and desires since he took office,” said state Democratic Party Chairman William McCurdy.

Republicans argue Nevada is far less liberal than Democrats commonly portray, pointing out that while President Barack Obama won by double digits there in 2008, Hillary Clinton barely eked out a win in the state in 2016. They say their strategy of supercharging the conservative vote on the issue of judges will pay off in Nevada again.

“The people of Nevada want Judge Kavanaugh. If you’re Jacky Rosen, I’d be wanting to hide in Yucca Mountain from this vote,” said Senate GOP campaign chairman Cory Gardner of Colorado.

Chris Wilson, a Republican pollster who’s worked for both Heller and Adam Laxalt, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, has identified some conservative Nevadans who are currently planning to stay home that could shift the election toward Heller if they’re motivated to turn out.

“The SCOTUS fight will have a significant impact on this race,” Wilson said.

Heller is keeping a low profile in the Capitol, and his campaign declined an interview request. In a statement, his spokesman Keith Schipper said, “We hear how important the Supreme Court is every day from Nevadans. They understand exactly what is at stake.”

But tactically and logistically, Heller's campaign could be collateral damage in the high court fight. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has threatened to let the confirmation battle slip until just before the midterm elections. While that would keep Democratic incumbents off the campaign trail late into the fall, it would do the same for Heller, who has a brutal commute between his house in northern Nevada and D.C.

And because Heller is considered a safe yes on Kavanaugh’s nomination, groups like the Judicial Crisis Network and Americans for Prosperity that are providing cover on the airwaves aren’t active in Nevada. Some of these groups are likely to spend money to boost Heller after the final Kavanaugh vote, but the longer the confirmation process extends, the longer Heller will go without air cover for his position.

Some Republicans even hope Democrats will go to extraordinary lengths to fight Kavanaugh, believing that the harder Democrats push back, the more it will help Heller.

“The fact that Democrats are hellbent on obstructing Judge Kavanaugh’s confirmation for no good reason will probably motivate and drive our base even more,” said Michael McDonald, the Nevada GOP chairman.

Thus far, Heller’s colleague, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), isn’t one of them. And in contrast to Heller’s quick endorsement of Kavanaugh, she won’t make a decision on the Supreme Court nominee until she’s met with him and possibly until after his hearing. But she said Nevadans are already lobbying her, and it’s clear in which direction the wind is blowing.

“I have received in my office, and my office alone, more letters and emails against Kavanaugh than for him,” Cortez Masto said.

