Final Senate race rankings

With Kevin Robillard, Maggie Severns and Elena Schneider

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races — and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news — sign up for Campaign Pro today. (https://subscriber.politicopro.com/proinfo)


MOST LIKELY TO FLIP — “Senate race rankings: Trump dragging on GOP majority,” by Campaign Pro’s Kevin Robillard: With two weeks until Election Day, Senate “Republicans remain optimistic they can prevent a wave, but Democrats believe the bottom will fall out on GOP hopes any day now. Here are the top 10 key Senate races, ranked in order of likelihood that each seat switches hands in this election. Democrats need to net at least four seats to take back the Senate majority if Hillary Clinton wins the White House.”

— No. 1: Illinois, held by GOP Sen. Mark Kirk: ... No. 2: Wisconsin, held by GOP Sen. Ron Johnson: While he’s gained some ground since the summer, “there’s still only been one public poll ever showing Johnson leading over Democratic former Sen. Russ Feingold, and Democratic strategists argue Johnson’s alleged comeback is a mirage." No. 3: Pennsylvania, held by GOP Sen. Pat Toomey: “Pennsylvania marks the start of the core of the map: The six states that will make or break a majority come January 2017. All of these races could be fairly described as toss-ups and will see the majority of the outside spending in the final two weeks of the election.”

— No. 4: Indiana, where GOP Sen. Dan Coats is retiring. No. 5: New Hampshire, held by GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte. No. 6: Missouri, held by GOP Sen. Roy Blunt. No. 7: North Carolina, held by GOP Sen. Richard Burr. More within; full story here.

AD STRATEGERY — “Complaints allege House Democrats’ Trump ads break campaign finance law,” by Campaign Pro’s Scott Bland: "A conservative-leaning watchdog group is accusing the DCCC and a dozen of its candidates of using illegal advertising practices this fall, arguing in new complaints that the committee has used its ad strategy to direct extra money to a number of its campaigns. The FEC complaints center on the growing number of Democratic TV ads linking Republican House candidates to Donald Trump. It’s a potentially devastating line of attack given Trump’s unpopularity, and the DCCC has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in coordination with some candidates to help them air the ads — well in excess of the normal $48,100 limit on coordinated expenditures in most House races. Some candidates have legally exceeded the party-coordination limits in recent elections by making carefully worded ‘ hybrid’ ads, which justify the unlimited cost splitting by making generic references to the parties as well as mentioning local candidates. But the DCCC is sharing massive campaign costs on ads directly naming a presidential candidate as well as local House candidates, which have prompted a series of FEC complaints from the Foundation for Accountability and Civic Trust." Full story.

MORE AD THEMES — "GOP candidates give up on Trump and run against Clinton," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "Republicans, desperate to salvage their congressional majorities amid Donald Trump’s collapse, are increasingly presenting themselves as checks on a Hillary Clinton presidency — a final argument that, if only implicitly, concedes the White House to Democrats. The offensive, which has been under discussion for months and is only now being unleashed, is designed to win over voters who want to see Clinton’s powers curtailed — even as she closes in on a potentially sweeping national victory." More on this below; full story here.

Days until the 2016 election: 14.

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FROM THE MAGAZINE — America’s Mayors to Trump: Enough with the hellhole stuff, already: In a new What Works Mayors’ Survey, we found that the Census Bureau has good news for our cities. In 2015, median income has ticked up, the poverty rate has plunged, the gender pay gap has narrowed and the uninsured rate has shriveled — and these gains are being amplified in cities. Read More.

NEW THIS MORNING — Congressional Leadership Fund debuts a dozen new ads: The super PAC and its sister nonprofit, American Action Network, are out with new TV ads in 12 House districts. The CA-21 ad attacks Democrat Emilio Huerta of profiting from a "crooked sweetheart insider deal." Watch the ad here. The CO-06 ad attacks Democrat Morgan Carroll's "spending obsession." Watch the ad here. The FL-26 ad goes after Democrat Joe Garcia over the conviction of one of his former aides. Watch the ad here. The IA-01 ad attacks Democrat Monica Vernon for supporting the Iranian nuclear deal. The IA-03 ad charges that Democrat "Jim Mowrer's agenda will hurt the economy and kill jobs." Watch the ad here. The ME-02 ad charges that Democrat Emily Cain "definitely supports raising our taxes." Watch the ad here. The MI-01 ad ties Hillary Clinton to Democrat Lon Johnson. Watch the ad here.

— The MI-07 ad attacks Democrat Gretchen Driskell for supporting tax hikes. Watch the ad here. The MN-08 ad accuses Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan of voting "against a job-training program" for veterans. Watch the ad here. The NE-02 ad attacks Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford for taking "care of himself with your money." Watch the ad here. The VA-10 ad accuses Democrat LuAnn Bennett of backing a plan that "taxes the insurance policies families rely on." Watch the ad here. The WI-08 ad charges that Democrat Tom Nelson "helped create the largest budget deficit in state history." Watch the ad here.

FIRST IN SCORE — Comstock praises bipartisanship in new ad: Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock boasts her bipartisan approach to lawmaking in a new ad. Comstock recently abandoned Trump in her effort to keep her northern Virginia seat during a challenge from Democrat LuAnn Bennett. “Others seek to divide us, I get results that unite us,” Comstock says in the ad. “I’ve worked with Democrats and Republicans to get results for northern Virginia.” Watch the ad here.

FIRST IN SCORE — Sidie links Trump and Yoder in KS-03: The Democrat taking on GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder is linking the Republican to Trump on TV for the first time. "Even after this" — a clip of Trump's lewd 2005 Access Hollywood tape then plays — "Kevin Yoder still supports Donald Trump for president," the narrator of Sidie's ad said. Trump has trailed Clinton in Democratic and Republican internal polls of the district, which Mitt Romney carried in 2012. Sidie's new ad also continues linking Yoder and unpopular GOP Gov. Sam Brownback. Watch the ad here.

FIRST IN SCORE — Majority Forward uses rival bike messenger in new Pennsylvania ad: Just when we thought we were done with bike messengers appearing in ads for Pennsylvania’s Senate race, the Democratic nonprofit Majority Forward is using a new one in an ad. “That other messenger? He’s been lying to you about Katie McGinty,” the messenger says in the ad. “The truth is in government and in business, Katie McGinty has been a leader in clean energy. She’s never done anything illegal or improper.” Watch the ad here.

— Super PAC ad attacks Hassan over Exeter scandal: Granite State Solutions is attacking Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan over a sex scandal that happened while her husband was headmaster at Phillips Exeter, a tony boarding school. The teacher, who was dismissed, subsequently donated to Hassan’s campaigns. There’s no direct evidence Hassan know of the scandal, but the ad asks: “How could she not have known?” Watch the ad here.

— Senate Leadership Fund is also hitting the air in Pennsylvania, with TV and radio ads attacking McGinty on ethics. The ads go after her for steering a grant to a company that employed her husband. Watch the TV ad here. And listen to the radio version here.

NEW THIS MORNING — New Strickland TV ad features Obama: Democratic Senate candidate Ted Strickland prominently features prior remarks from President Barack Obama in a new TV ad. “Ted Strickland, love this man,” Obama says in the ad. Watch the ad here.

FLASHBACK — “Bayh lunched with bank lobbyists on day of ‘08 bailout vote,” by POLITICO’s John Bresnahan: “Former Indiana senator and longtime Banking Committee member Evan Bayh held a series of private meetings with financial services industry executives and lobbyists throughout 2008 — just as Wall Street was collapsing and big banks were seeking a bailout from Washington, according to a newly obtained schedule for the ex-lawmaker now running to reclaim his seat. One of the engagements — which included lunches, dinners and golf outings — happened the day of the Wall Street bailout vote. On Oct. 1, 2008, when the Senate voted to approve the $700 billion rescue package, Bayh held a “Lunch with Supporters” that included lobbyists for the financial services industry, his schedule shows.” Full story.

DEBATE NIGHT — Toomey ducks Trump questions in Pennsylvania Senate debate: There were two competing story lines coming out of Monday night’s Pennsylvania Senate debate. The first? With 15 days before the election, GOP Sen. Pat Toomey still hasn’t revealed who he plans on voting for in the presidential election. The moderator of the debate at Temple University in Philadelphia asked three times, and Toomey dodged each time, eventually explaining: “I don’t think my constituents care that much how one person is going to vote.” Democrat Katie McGinty accused Toomey of having two different messages in the state: “In Philadelphia, the senator will say that he has differences and disagreements with Donald Trump," she said. “But in other parts of the state, what we hear from the senator is how excited he will be to confirm President Trump’s Supreme Court nominees.”

— The DSCC switches out attack ad: In recent weeks, McGinty’s campaign has repeatedly attacked Toomey for owning a bank that used a controversial technique called confessions of judgment to start foreclosure proceedings. But guess who else also used confessions of judgment? Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection when McGinty ran it. Toomey’s campaign blasted out video of McGinty answering questions on the topic after the debate, and also forced some alterations to a TV ad on the topic from the DSCC. “We made a minor adjustment at the request of one station and the ad carries the same message, which Senator Toomey’s own lawyers acknowledge is fact: the bank Senator Toomey co-founded relied on a controversial legal maneuver to expedite foreclosures on Pennsylvanians,” said Lauren Passalacqua, a DSCC spokeswoman. “That Senator Toomey spent more time quibbling over this ad than he did working to protect consumers shows how out of touch he is.”

UTAH UPDATE — UT-04 Democratic poll: Love 49, Owens 41: GOP Rep. Mia Love leads Democrat Doug Owens 49 percent to 41 percent, according to a new internal poll conducted by the DCCC’s targeting and analytics department. While committees don’t typically release polls showing their candidates losing by such margins, there’s a silver lining for Democrats: Hillary Clinton and the independent candidate Evan McMullin are tied at 29 percent in the district, with Donald Trump in third at 21 percent. The poll also found that 85 percent of registered Democrats reported being enthusiastic about voting, while only 72 percent of Republicans felt the same way. Here’s the full polling memo.

MORE POLLS, OFF THE BEATEN PATH — NJ-07 Democratic robopoll: Jacob and Lance tied at 45 percent: GOP Rep. Leonard Lance isn't considered vulnerable this cycle. But a new poll from his Democratic challenger, Peter Jacob, shows a tied race in the Republican-leaning district in New Jersey, with Lance and Jacob at 45 percent. At the presidential level, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 45 percent to 44 percent. The poll was conducted Oct. 21-22 by Public Policy Polling and surveyed 982 registered voters. Here's the full polling memo.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ — "Florida spirals away from Trump," by POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "From polling to early voting trends to TV ad spending to ground game, Donald Trump’s Florida fortunes are beginning to look so bleak that some Republicans are steeling themselves for what could be the equivalent of a “landslide” loss in the nation’s biggest battleground state. Trump has trailed Hillary Clinton in 10 of the 11 public polls conducted in October — according to POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average, Clinton has a 3.4 point lead. Even private surveys conducted by Republican-leaning groups show Trump’s in trouble in Florida, where a loss would end his White House hopes." Full story.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Literally, people will seriously say, 'Can't you delete his Twitter app?'" — Kellyanne Conway, in an interview with CNN's Dana Bash.

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