Print those Honolulu blue playoff tickets! The Lions are going worst-to-first in the NFC North.

At least, they have the best chance of making the radical rise from the bottom. So says Football Outsiders and their simulations of the 2019 NFL season. Published in conjunction with ESPN, the Football Outsiders’ research and data indicate the Detroit Lions are the most likely of the 2018 fourth-place teams to rise up and capture a division crown.

One of the key reasons cited for the relative optimism is the ability of the defense to create takeaways. That is a team facet which tends to swing from year to year, and the Lions were terrible at it a year ago. It’s unlikely to remain so bad.

The Lions can expect better luck when it comes to turnovers. Detroit got a takeaway on only 7.3% of drives last year, 31st in the NFL. That’s an important metric that tends to regress toward the mean heavily from year to year.

Playing in what they see as a very balanced, wide-open NFC North also factors in.

Our most surprising preseason pick plays in what we think is the NFL’s most competitive division. All four teams in the NFC North win the division in at least 22% of our simulations.

When it’s that up for grabs, little things like defensive continuity, a better turnover ratio and regression to the mean by foes like Chicago — which pulled off the worst-to-first in the same division a year ago — give the Lions a legit chance to make it happen.

Skeptical? We understand. After all, the Lions have never won the NFC North, and Matt Patricia’s first season didn’t exactly inspire confidence.

That’s why having something away from Detroit seeing optimism is both surprising and important.

Computer simulations strip away the raw negativity of a calloused fan base that almost perversely enjoys the team being in last place. Football Outsiders doesn’t have a vested interest or skin in the game on if Matthew Stafford is either messianic or the root of all our nation’s problems, as the polarizing QB is largely viewed by the competing sides of Lions fandom. They don’t care about the long-running playoff win drought or the mishaps of past regimes.

Will it happen? We’ll find out come December. But if it does, give Football Outsiders some credit for being one of the few to predict it as a real possibility.