Marcus Ferraro, his wife Emma and 4-year-old daughter Summer are living in Point Cook. There is a Catholic school servicing their estate, but no public school. Credit:Eddie Jim Burdened by budgets and its school building protocols, the government is struggling to keep up with schools for sprawling new estates on the city fringe. By contrast, the organised and cashed-up private schools - particularly the Catholic sector - have seized the opportunity and are outpacing the government's. They're getting in early to establish themselves in communities with the assistance of developers acutely aware of the marketing value of an accessible school. It's a trend that has some parents and experts concerned that young communities have no choice but to send their children to religious schools.

St Mary of the Cross looks out onto a vacant block set aside for a state school. Credit:Eddie Jim A Fairfax Media analysis of school growth in Victoria reveals the private school sector built 64 new schools compared to the government's 67 over the last decade. New private schools either equalled or outnumbered the government's in most years. Notably, 12 private schools are planned to open in 2018, compared to 11 public schools. Student growth is tipped to climb by 34.3 per cent in Wyndham, 21.8 per cent in Melton and 23.6 per cent in Whittlesea between 2016-2021. These areas are being targeted by the strategic Catholic schools body. One insider refers to the "trade secrets" of the Catholic school roll-out, which is guided by special school planning software.

Developers acknowledge a preference for dealing with the nimble private sector, noting the capacity for "creative" deals that speed up the arrival of schools. Mike Davis, a manager with major developer Stockland, says where the government might take 12 months to negotiate a new project, it's only six to nine months with the Catholics. He confirms that his company has gifted infrastructure and land in exchange for a quick turnaround. "It's easier to have that conversation with the Catholics as opposed to the State Government, who are beholden to annual budget cycles … you can have a more commercially engaging conversation with the Catholics." In two large estates by joint ventures involving prominent developer Mirvac - Woodlea at Rockbank to the city's north-west and Olivine in Donnybrook to the north - grammar schools will soon open, while there are no plans for public schools.

Mirvac residential manager Elysa Anderson, says the company sought out the private schools for their brands and ability to open schools quickly. "We've stepped outside the public system and are working with these private providers because ... families want good quality education and they want a variety of options and they want them from day one." So, too, does the Catholic sector in particular demand, and is given, a seat at the table in the planning of greenfield areas. In its 2016-17 annual report Catholic Education Melbourne claims to be "firmly embedded" with the Victorian Planning Authority and to have strengthened its "prominent" position in growth area planning. It also notes that where the planning authority agrees a Catholic school is justified in a new suburb, it has changed its approach to designate the site as 'Catholic' rather than just 'non-government'. In precinct plans for Wyndham's new suburbs, for instance, seven sites are earmarked for Catholic schools. The only other private school named in such plans is a pre-existing Islamic school.

While the Catholics celebrate their influence in government planning, others see downsides. When Marcus Ferraro moved into Saltwater estate in Point Cook in 2014, he figured the proposed public primary, just a short stroll from his home, would open by the time his 17-month-old child started prep. Three years later, still no school. The government says it will open the school in 2019, but no land has been purchased. The nearest state school is more than 11 kilometres away - a drive that takes 35 minutes in peak-hour traffic.

So Mr Ferraro has enrolled his four-year-old daughter at the nearby St Mary of the Cross. "I am Catholic but my wife is not, and we felt we were in a situation where, because there was no state school … that St Mary of the Cross was the only viable option." Non-Catholic private schools are also questioning the Catholics' apparently privileged position. Australian Association of Christian Schools head, Martin Hanscamp, says Christian schools are not given a formal invitation to help plan schools in greenfield sites. "We don't have ready access to such a large pool of funds or the helpful systemic mechanisms in place. However, that shouldn't mean we are not offered a reasonable and timely invitation."

A Victorian Planning Authority spokeswoman says the authority contacts The Independent Schools Victoria and the Catholic Education Melbourne "to inform them that planning is underway". The Andrews government is spending much more than its Coalition predecessor on new schools, pouring in more than $2.5 billion over the past three years. Yet the sheer magnitude of Melbourne's growth, combined with the government's budgetary and bureaucracy limits look set to leave the public sector hamstrung. Victorian School Building Authority head Chris Keating acknowledges that keeping up with the Catholic sector in growth areas has been a challenge. He stresses that about 10 new schools would now be built - 11 in 2018 - each year to meet student growth, and the authority is focused on growth areas.

Melbourne University urban planning professor Carolyn Whitzman says that for years government school planning had been "shambolic" and that private schools had "stepped into the breach" in growth areas. "We don't want the additional cost of private schools for these low-income people when the housing costs are already hard to handle." Education Minister James Merlino says the government works closely with the non-government sectors and supports Victorians families and their right to choose schools. "Despite the lack of investment in school infrastructure by the former Liberal Government, our schools are thriving with the significant majority of families choosing to enrol in government schools". Do you know more? Contact us securely via Journotips