Social media, press, and monitoring reports indicate a possible increased Russian military presence along Ukraine’s eastern border. Sightings of heavy weapons and vehicles are coinciding with the completion of a new high-speed railway line that can more easily and quickly transport freight, including military equipment, from central Russia to the Black Sea, without transiting Ukrainian territory (as the older line does). Both the completion of the railway line and the signs of an increased military presence point to the potential for even further military buildup in the future.

Map of the old (blue) and new (red) railway tracks. (Source: Twitter)

On August 11, state-operated Russian Railways (RZD) announced the completion of the Zhuravka-Millerovo high-speed railway, which bypasses Ukraine to reconnect central Russia to Voronezh Oblast, Rostov Oblast, and the Black Sea coast. Pre-existing rail tracks ran through a 26-kilometer (approximately 16 miles) section of government-controlled Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine, and Ukraine refused Russia access to that line after the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine in 2014. The new high-speed line was reported to cost approximately RUB 55 billion (approximately USD 9.19 million).

The Jamestown Foundation, a think tank with a focus on Eurasia, reported that even though construction was to be carried out by RZD, Russian military forces became increasingly involved, with Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu calling the railway of “instrumental importance” for Russia. Looking at a map of the area, it is easy to see how the railway could increase Russia’s military logistical capabilities in the non-government-controlled areas of the Ukrainian border. This bypass railway constitutes key infrastructure for Russia should it choose to dramatically increase (in duration or volume) its military presence on Ukraine’s border or in the non-government-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine.

Both verified and unverified photographs and videos from late July and early August suggest military movement along the areas of Russia bordering Ukraine.

Photo showing military trucks on a highway near Kantemirovka, Voronezh Oblast, on July 24, 2017. (Source: Instagram)

Photos showing seven 2S19 Msta-S (NATO reporting name M1990 Farm) 152mm howitzers (one numbered 661, another possibly numbered 644) in Voronezh Oblast, Russia, on July 29, 2017. (Source: Twitter)

Photo showing nine 2S19 Msta-S (NATO reporting name M1990 Farm) 152mm howitzers (one numbered 624), possibly in Liski, Voronezh Oblast, Russia, on July 30, 2017. (Source: Twitter, Twitter, and Odnoklassniki)

Photo showing military vehicles near Kantemirovka, Voronezh Oblast, on August 1, 2017. (Source: VKontakte)

Photos showing military vehicles, including at least one 2S19 Msta-S (NATO reporting name M1990 Farm) 152mm howitzer (numbered 711), possibly in Liski, Voronezh Oblast, Russia, on August 2, 2017. (Source: Twitter)

As @DFRLab reported in late July, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine observed multiple “military type” vehicles passing through a non-government-controlled checkpoint between Russia and Ukraine in both directions, suggesting either a possible military buildup or a seasonal rotation of forces. Since then, the OSCE SMM has observed significant military traffic and has continued to face restricted access to areas where they have previously observed military traffic.

Social media posts from the time period when OSCE SMM made these observations suggest that military equipment was passing through towns just outside of Rostov-on-Don, where Russia’s Southern Military District is headquartered, and was possibly headed toward the aforementioned checkpoint where the OSCE SMM faces frequent access restrictions.

Images in these social media posts show at least 25 tanks in Pokrovskoye, Rostov Oblast, the same town mentioned in a previous @DFRLab piece about Russian military movement in and around Ukraine. The train schedule for the Neklinovka train station in Pokrovskoye indicates that trains passing through the station travel between Uspenskaya, Taganrog, and Rostov-on-Don “Glavny” (the main station). Taganrog is just outside of Rostov-on-Don, and, as noted the same previous @DFRLab piece, is the point of origin for many “marshrutkas” (mini-buses) traveling to non-government-controlled eastern Ukraine.