As the 16-year leader of the Democratic Caucus during a GOP presidency, Nancy Pelosi has come to define her party, for better or worse. | Toya Sarno Jordan/Getty Images Pelosi’s path to speakership gets even harder Crowley’s shocking defeat is upending the future of House Democratic leadership.

Rep. Joe Crowley’s stunning loss on Tuesday night to a first-time candidate makes this crystal clear: Nancy Pelosi’s path back to the speaker's chair is getting more narrow by the day.

But it may not ease the route for the leaders directly below her either.


As the Democratic Party grows younger and more diverse, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) — an older white male centrist — may be left without a chair in any leadership scramble.

And for Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, the No. 3 House Democrat, the Crowley earthquake cuts both ways. Clyburn could be in line to become the first African-American to serve as speaker of the House or he may find himself pushing another black Democrat for that post.

The septuagenarian troika that has run the House Democratic Caucus since the early 2000s reacted to Crowley's defeat in different ways, but the stakes for all of them this November are high. Pelosi will either be speaker or she will be out. Hoyer hopes that he can somehow cobble together a coalition to vault him to the top spot, or at least keep him in the game. Clyburn, while always loyal to Pelosi, may find himself as her successor or sidelined as well.

The drama comes as a new slate of Democrats is being floated for top posts within the Democratic Caucus, no matter what happens in November.

Congressional Black Caucus Chairman Cedric Richmond and Reps. Hakeem Jeffries of New York, Cheri Bustos of Illinois, Marcia Fudge of Ohio, Joe Kennedy of Massachusetts, Adam Schiff of California and Mark Pocan of Wisconsin, leader of the Progressive Caucus, are names already being mentioned by their colleagues. Many other lawmakers could raise their hand and have a shot at winning a leadership post.

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Even before Tuesday's shocking upset, Pelosi was swimming against a stream of moderate Democratic challengers promising not to support the longtime party leader in November. Now, Pelosi will likely have to fight against progressive upstarts who aren’t afraid to upend the Democratic establishment.

And Pelosi, 78, is the personification of the party establishment. Without a Democrat in the White House and as the 16-year leader of the Democratic Caucus, Pelosi has come to define the party, for better or worse.

But newcomers representing different wings of the party — from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the self-described Democratic socialist who knocked off Crowley, to the more than a dozen centrist candidates demanding new leadership — have no loyalty to Pelosi or her two longtime deputies.

“If we take over the majority, there will be challenges to leadership because there will be a lot of new faces,” said Rep. John Yarmuth of Kentucky. “I don’t think there’s any question.”

But that doesn’t mean it will be easy to unseat the top three.

The big question is whether Pelosi, who has declared she will run for speaker again if Democrats win back the House, can survive one more time.

Pelosi has overcome leadership challenges before. Most recently, she turned back Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio after the 2016 election despite 63 votes against her from inside her own caucus, a sign of how much disaffection there was with her leadership.

But she has never faced a threat like this, with potentially dozens of incoming freshman Democrats already openly gunning for the old guard, joining those incumbents anxious for a new face atop the caucus.

Pelosi testily brushed aside questions on Wednesday about whether Crowley’s double-digit loss embodied a broader anti-establishment mood coursing through the party and the impact that could have on her future.

“Well, I'm female, I’m progressive, so what's your problem? Two out of three ain’t bad,” she told reporters when asked whether Democratic leadership should reflect the party's trend toward younger, female, liberal leaders.

“The fact that in a very progressive district in New York it went more progressive than, well, Joe Crowley is a progressive but more to the left than Joe Crowley, is about that district. It is not to be viewed as something that stands for everything else,” Pelosi added.

However, Pelosi's vulnerabilities were evident at the news conference. When asked whether she supports "Medicare for all," a popular position among Democratic activists, Pelosi wouldn't endorse the proposal. While saying "everything is on the table," Pelosi said that Obamacare — which she pushed through Congress as speaker — was a better option for many Americans.

Drew Hammill, Pelosi's spokesman, brushed aside the notion that her job is in jeopardy.

“While we appreciate that Politico has routinely underestimated Nancy Pelosi at virtually every turn, the Leader has always enjoyed the overwhelming support of House Democrats and that will continue into the majority she’s so focused on winning," Hammill said in a statement.

"In what is shaping up to be a historic year of the woman, we’re not going to take a step backward and not have a woman at the head of the table.”

Crowley’s loss will have significant ramifications for Hoyer and Clyburn. Both are in their late 70s and have been at the top of the leadership hierarchy for more than a decade.

If the caucus ultimately decides to move on from Pelosi, it could be hard for Hoyer or Clyburn to make the case that they are the change that should take her place.

"I think Hoyer is done," said one Democratic lawmaker who asked not to be named. "His time has gone. I'm not sure about Clyburn either."

Hoyer dismissed questions about the future of Democratic leadership on Wednesday.

“I believe it’s important we focus on taking back the majority,” he said. “We’ll get into leadership issues later on. But we need to focus on taking back the House.”

Clyburn, another potential candidate for speaker if Democrats win the House, was cautious following Crowley's defeat.

"There are a lot of very able people leading this party going forward," Clyburn told reporters Wednesday morning. "I think some are currently in office and some of them are aspiring."

But Clyburn played down divisions inside the party, especially as the base shifts ever more leftward. The South Carolina Democrat noted that Crowley's district had changed demographically in the past 20 years. He also said Crowley hadn't kept up his ties with voters back home.

"You don't get here without staying in touch with your constituents," Clyburn said. "Joe is just a great guy, but I don't think he paid close enough attention to his district at home."

Clyburn has a very close relationship with Pelosi, and he would first support any bid she made to be speaker if Democrats grab the majority.

Yet if Pelosi cannot get there, Clyburn could emerge as speaker. Clyburn would control the CBC bloc of votes, maybe the most important faction within the House Democratic Caucus. And if he is not their choice to be speaker or minority leader, he could help pick the CBC's candidate.

"We're going to see if we can make Clyburn speaker," said one CBC member, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "If Pelosi can't do it, we will push Jim for speaker. Those discussions are going on right now."

In fact, the entire Democratic Caucus was speculating Wednesday about the fallout from Crowley’s loss. Rumors were buzzing about several members with higher ambitions already reaching out to colleagues to schedule one-on-one meetings.

Rep. Linda Sánchez of California, the No. 5 Democrat behind Crowley, lamented the loss of her “mentor” but made clear she’s now eyeing his job.

“I think I would be a good caucus chair,” Sánchez told reporters. “I’m not making any announcements.”

And after Crowley’s loss, sources within the caucus say some members are looking to aim higher than caucus chair.

Crowley was the last man standing in a group of House Democrats that had been seen as the next generation of leadership once Pelosi, Hoyer and Clyburn retired. But even before his primary loss, some members said privately that Crowley didn’t fit the moment.

As a white Irish man from New York who came up in the Queens establishment, Crowley didn’t reflect the diverse, grass-roots energy that is expected to propel Democrats to success this fall. But at 56 and already in leadership, he was seen by some members as the best choice to challenge Pelosi or take her place in November.

Now, that's all changed, with some members saying privately it's time to seize on the left's energy and try to force change throughout the Democratic ranks.

"It blows the leadership race wide open. [Crowley] was everyone's heir apparent," said Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.). "Now, that's gone overnight. And we don't have a Plan B."

Nolan McCaskill contributed to this report.