25 pct of voters may still change minds: Pulse Asia

Dharel Placido, ABS-CBN News

Posted at 04 May 2016 02:50 PM | Updated as of 04 May 2016 04:33 PM

MANILA – Around 1 in every 4 Filipinos may still change their choice of candidates in the May 9 elections, the head of pollster Pulse Asia said on Wednesday.

Speaking to dzMM, Pulse Asia Research, Inc. President Ronald Holmes said an average of 25% of respondents, since January 2016, have indicated that their choices of candidates may or may not change.

Holmes said the 25% of respondents are composed of those saying their choices may still change and those saying they cannot determine whether they will stick to their original choices.

''Twenty-five percent [of respondents] in our surveys from January onwards ang nagsasabi na may posibilidad [na magbago]. Nahahati ito sa dalawang grupo, iyung nagsasabi na posibleng magbago at nagsasabing hindi nila masabi kung magbabago o hindi. Iyun ang undecided,'' he said.

''Kapag binuo mo ang grupo na iyan, iyan ang tinatawag na one-fourth na maaring mag-shift. Malaki siya."

Holmes said the remaining days before the May 9 polls will be crucial for these type of voters, noting that anything that a candidate will say or get involved in will likely impact how soft voters make up their minds.

Joselito Gerardino from COMELEC assists a student on how to use the Vote-Counting Machine (VCM) during the Ideas That Matter (ITM) special election forum at the University of Santo Tomas, Monday. The event aims to educate young voters on the importance of the May 9, 2016 elections. Basilio H. Sepe, ABS-CBN News

''Meron pa ring ilang araw na may magaganap na mga events na maaaring makatulong o makasama sa sinuman sa mga tumatakbo,'' he said.

''Hindi natin masabi kung ano ang mga ihahayag ng mga kandidato na makakapagpa-pirme ng kanilang suporta o magpapalusaw ng suporta nila."

Holmes added that there are factors, other than developments involving candidates, that might make certain voters change their minds.

''Maaring maimpluwensyahan sila ng pamilya, patalastas, at ng huling maririnig nila galing sa mga kandidato…Maaring 'di na pumunta iyan sa voting precincts. Maaring iboto pa nila ang nasabing iboboto nila, o maaring mag-sway sila sa ibang kandidato,'' he said.

DUTERTE KEEPS LEAD

After dealing with one controversy after another, Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte remained on top of the latest Pulse Asia survey commissioned by ABS-CBN.

READ: Duterte keeps lead in ABS-CBN survey

Duterte kept his 33% rating for a 2nd week in a row, in the April 26-29, 2016 survey.

Administration standard bearer Mar Roxas was in a statistical tie for second place with Senator Grace Poe.

Roxas got 22%, 11-percentage points behind Duterte and 2 points up from his previous rating, while Poe got 21%, a point below her previous 22% rating.

Vice President Jejomar Binay polled 17%, a point down from his previous 18% rating.

Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago got a 2% rating for a second week in a row.

NEW DUTERTE CONTROVERSY

Holmes said the survey was conducted amid the controversy involving Duterte's alleged millions of pesos of undeclared wealth.

Senator Antonio Trillanes IV last week dropped a bombshell by accusing Duterte of keeping over P200 million in a BPI branch along Julia Vargas Avenue, Pasig City.

Holmes said it is possible the latest ABS-CBN survey did not fully capture the sentiment of the respondents with regard to the accusations of hidden wealth against the tough-talking mayor, especially since several developments already took place after the survey period.

Last Monday, Duterte's lawyer Salvador Panelo went to the BPI branch armed with a Special Power of Attorney (SPA) requesting the BPI to issue certificates for his current balance, as well as to certify that "at no time since the opening of the aforesaid Bank Account was there a deposit either singly or collectively of P211,000,000.00."

READ: Duterte camp won't reveal BPI account transactions for now

Trillanes criticized the Duterte camp for issuing a SPA instead of a waiver, even as Panelo insisted that a SPA and a waiver are the same thing.

The hard-hitting senator argued that a waiver will pave the way for a full scrutiny of Duterte's bank accounts without violating the Bank Secrecy Law.

The latest ABS-CBN survey was also conducted in the wake of the final Commission on Elections (Comelec) presidential debate hosted by ABS-CBN where Duterte emerged unscathed.

READ: Frontrunner Duterte 'unscathed' as rivals hold punches

LENI RISES

ABS-CBN News, Pulse Asia Research

The voter preference ratings of all candidates for president and vice president remained almost the same compared to the previous ABS-CBN survey except for Liberal Party vice-presidential bet Leni Robredo, Holmes noted.

Robredo now shares the lead with Sen. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. after getting a 30% voter preference rating, 4 points higher than her rating in the previous ABS-CBN Pulse Asia survey conducted on April 19-24.

READ: Leni, Bongbong share lead in new ABS-CBN survey

''Iyung kay Cong. Robredo, ang pag-akyat niya ng apat na puntos, masasabing significant, kasi kung ido-doble ang margin of error na 1.5 [percent], lumagpas sa 3 [percent] ang pagbabago ng kanyang suporta,'' Holmes said.

Erstwhile frontrunner Sen. Ferdinand ''Bongbong'' Marcos Jr. is the choice of 28%, down 3 points from the previous survey. On the other hand, Senators Francis Escudero (18%) and Alan Peter Cayetano (15%) didn't see changes in their ratings. Senators Antonio Trillanes IV and Gringo Honasan had 3% and 2% ratings, respectively.

Support for Robredo has been on the rise since early April 2016.

In the April 5-10 survey, she got 21% against Marcos' 27%. This rose by two points to 23% in the April 12-17 survey, 6 points below Marcos' 29%.

Marcos, who did not attend the April 17 ABS-CBN debate, sustained his lead in the April 19-24 survey. He got 31% while Robredo got 26%.

The son and namesake of the late dictator, however, appeared to have lost momentum in the April 26-29 survey, shedding 3 points to 28%. This allowed Robredo, whose rating rose by 4 points to 30%, to share the spot with Marcos.

In a mobile survey conducted by Social Weather Stations, Robredo was named by the most number of respondents as the one who stood out in the vice-presidential debate hosted by ABS-CBN.

The survey, conducted a day after the debate, said 33% of the respondents named Robredo, 28% named Escudero, 27% named Cayetano, and 5% named Trillanes as the one who came out the best during the debate. The remaining 7% of the watchers could not give an answer.