Gov. Rick Scott said he’ll make up his mind about the race after the March 9 end of his last regular 60-day legislative session as governor. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images Scott takes big step toward Florida Senate challenge

In the clearest sign he’s ready to challenge Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, Florida Gov. Rick Scott has raised more than $1.1 million for a super PAC he recently revived and stocked it with top consultants from his previous campaigns. Privately, he’s talked up his good polling numbers, according to several supporters who have spoken to Scott recently.

A Scott bid would complicate Democratic hopes of winning back the Senate next year — of the 10 Democrats up for reelection in states carried by President Donald Trump, Nelson has been considered one of the most vulnerable.


The term-limited governor said Tuesday that he’ll make up his mind about the race after the March 9 end of his last regular 60-day legislative session as governor. Scott won’t say which way he’s leaning, but some of those familiar with the governor’s thinking peg the likelihood of him running between 80 and 95 percent.

“In my opinion, the governor is highly likely to make this race. He has plenty of time to make a final decision,” said William Rubin, a top Tallahassee lobbyist who became personal friends with the governor decades ago when he represented Scott’s hospital company, Columbia/HCA.

“The Florida economy is good,” Rubin said, “and people are feeling good about the direction of our state under his leadership.”

Rubin won’t discuss the specifics of his private conversations with Scott, but others who have spoken to the governor in confidence say he has delivered the same message about his potential prospects as a Senate candidate. They say he references poll numbers that show his job approval ratings are promising, more Florida voters than not think the state is on the right track and he’s essentially tied with the incumbent Nelson in public opinion surveys when the two are matched up.

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“Rick is really his best consultant,” said one top Florida campaign contributor who spoke with Scott about his interest in running against Nelson. “He won’t come out and say he’s running, and there’s still a chance he won’t. But you can tell by his body language and everything he’s doing that he’s getting ready.”

When asked what are the chances of a Scott Senate bid, the contributor said “85 percent.” Another said the chances were 95 percent.

The governor has been displaying this confidence to an increasing number of new donors this year to his New Republican PAC, which he started to lead as chairman in May. The federal PAC, which had been founded in 2013, was rebranded under Scott as a pro-Trump committee and began gobbling up checks from donors who typically give to Florida candidates for state offices, not federal ones.

In the first month under Scott, the federal committee pulled in more than $275,000 in donations, many from interests that fared well in the 2017 spring legislative session. In the final six months of the year, the committee hauled in more than $848,000, according to campaign finance reports the committee filed Wednesday.

Among the committee’s top donors: The Villages, a central Florida retirement community that has long been a big state GOP donor ($100,000); MCNA, a dental-benefits administrator that won a carve out from the state’s Medicaid program during the 2016 session ($50,000); and Gulf Coast Health Care, a Pensacola-based company that owns 35 nursing homes across the state. The company was on the winning end of a contentious nursing home fight last session. It gave $50,000.

Since May, Scott has hired Virginia-based fundraising firm Drucker Lawhon, a firm whose biggest client this cycle has been a joint fundraising committee led by Louisiana Republican Rep. Steve Scalise. The super PAC paid the firm more than $20,000 over the last reporting period, according to Federal Election Commission records. During that same reporting period Traction Capital, the firm founded by committee finance director Taylor Teepell, also brought in nearly $32,000 from July to December 2017.

Scott also brought on the prominent Republican law firm Holtzman Vogel Josefiak Torchinsky, whose many national clients include the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee. The NRSC, which already has staff in Florida, is chaired by Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner, who shares the same political consulting firm — OnMessage Inc — with Scott and his federal super PAC.

Other Scott insiders working for New Republican PAC include his longtime fundraiser, Deborah Aleksander, and his former chief of staff and 2014 campaign manager Melissa Stone.

OnMessage’s founder, Curt Anderson, has steadfastly refused to discuss what the governor plans to do, in part because he said the decision is up to Scott and he’ll make the call on his own time.

Anderson has acknowledged that Scott could face political headwinds in this midterm election that he hadn’t experienced before. In 2010 and 2014 when Scott ran for governor and then reelection, voters punished the party in power in the White House — Democrats. But even though those were anti-Democratic years, Scott never won a majority of the vote in his tight victories. This year, a Republican sits in the White House — a president with whom he has close ties — and Trump’s approval ratings are relatively poor.

Anderson said Scott has the record and the resources to weather those forces.

“The further down the ballot you are, the more in danger you are of a wave washing you out to sea. But in Senate and governors races, you usually spend enough money to create your own weather patterns,” Anderson said in a previous interview.

Democrats, Anderson pointed out, also have struggled at the polls in recent Florida midterms, regardless of what party controls the White House. The only Democrat who has bucked that trend: Nelson, a three-term senator.

“If you have a Scott-Nelson race, it will turn on who has a better record and a better campaign,” Anderson said.

Scott has delivered the same message to donors and other political figures.

At the same time he leads the federal New Republican PAC, Scott has been raising and spending money for and from a state-level political committee called Let’s Get to Work.

In total, Scott raised more than $4.9 million in 2017 through the state and federal political committees he runs.

Federal law would prohibit Scott from being an announced federal candidate who coordinates with either his state or federal committees, which can take unlimited corporate money that Senate candidates aren’t permitted to receive.

So if Scott announces for U.S. Senate, his state political committee can’t be used to further his candidacy. The federal PAC, however, can under specific circumstances.

As a result of the potential limitations, Scott has begun to de-emphasize fundraising for the state-based Let’s Get to Work while spending more and more money from it.

At the end of last year, Scott used the state committee to fund $2 million worth of TV ads. And over the past six months of 2017, the state committee raised $380,002 while the federal-level super PAC brought in $848,416. The one-two fundraising punch underscores why he is such a dangerous candidate at any level: the governor can raise coin.

In addition to getting donors to pony up, Scott is a multimillionaire who, insiders say, would be ready to spend what it takes to win. In his two previous elections, he spent about $86 million of his own money.

In Washington, one top Republican connected to Senate campaigns said the party knew this would be a tough year and they’ve pegged all their hopes on Scott in Florida.

“It’s been a Rick Scott-or-bust race from the beginning,” the Republican said. “We know we just need to let him take his time, but we feel confident he’ll run.”

At this point, Republicans need Scott to run to have a shot at beating Nelson. Barring an unknown dream candidate with unlimited resources, any other Republican would probably lose to Nelson, said Brian Ballard, a top lobbyist and fundraiser.

“If Scott doesn’t run, I think we’ll lose that seat,” Ballard said. “It’s too late now.”

