By a 20-point margin, Craighead County voters oppose an effort to expand local alcohol sales, according to a new Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll that found 58% are against making the county “wet,” while 38% support the effort.



The survey, conducted July 15-16, 2014, surveyed 471 Craighead County registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. Roughly 78% of the survey respondents were landline users, while 22% were reached by cell phone.



Q: As you may know, a proposal to make Craighead County a wet county could be on the November general election ballot. Do you favor or oppose such a proposal?



38% Favor

58% Oppose

6% Don’t Know



Supporters of the proposal have until Thursday, July 31 to submit an additional 3,810 signatures to the Craighead County Clerk’s office to potentially meet the threshold to be on the November 4, 2014 ballot.



“If the initiative qualifies, it will have an uphill battle in moving public opinion to a more favorable position,” said Roby Brock, Editor-in-Chief of Talk Business & Politics. “Those without an opinion are minimal, meaning those in opposition will have to be persuaded to change their minds to support the measure.”



The Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll also tested responses from supporters and opponents of the wet-dry issue to gauge the reasoning for their positions.



Supporters of the proposal were asked:



Q: Is your support for the proposal primarily driven by the economic benefit that might come to Craighead County from open alcohol sales or from your belief that individuals should be able to purchase alcohol freely?



24% Economic Benefit

48% Personal Freedom

27.5% Both Equally

0.5% Don’t Know



Opponents of the proposal were asked:



Q: Is your opposition to the proposal primarily driven by the impact on the quality of life that might come to Craighead County from open alcohol sales or from your moral opposition to the use of alcohol?



37.5% Quality of Life

33% Moral Opposition

24% Both Equally

5.5% Don’t Know



RELIGIOUS SERVICE ATTENDANCE, MORE POLLING

In the demographic information collected as part of the survey, participants were asked to provide their age, gender, ethnicity and political affiliation. This is a standard battery of questions asked in all Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College polls.



In the Craighead County survey, respondents were also asked about church attendance to test correlations between religion and the alcohol issue.



Q: How often do you attend religious services?



52% At Least Once a Week

16% Almost Every Week

10% About Once a Month

15% Seldom

7% Never



“Not surprisingly, frequent church-goers are among the largest group of voters opposed to the alcohol expansion issue. Nearly three out of four are against the proposal,” Brock said.



Later this week, Talk Business & Politics will release additional polling related to Craighead County voters, including opinions on jobs and the direction of the community. Talk Business & Politics will also release statewide polling this week on the U.S. Senate, Congress, and Governor races.



ANALYSIS

Dr. Jay Barth, professor of political science at Hendrix College, offered additional poll analysis of the Craighead County “wet-dry” issue.



“While we often see large percentages of voters who are undecided on ballot measures, here the story is very different. Only a small percentage of voters — just 6% — don’t know their view on the topic,” said Barth. “While, at this stage, opponents of a proposal to open Craighead County to alcohol sales have the advantage, some very interesting patterns show themselves across subgroups of voters.”



Barth noted:

Most striking is the correlation between age and support/opposition patterns. While 71% of those under 30 support a “wet” Craighead County, nearly the same percentage (70%) of those 65 or older oppose it. Continuing the pattern, those 30-44 years old support the proposal (51%-45%) and those 45-53 years old oppose it (55%-41%), though by less extreme margins.

A large percentage of those who oppose the proposal cite moral objections as the basis of their opposition. This is reinforced by examination of the relationship between religious service attendance and support/opposition patterns. Nearly three-fourths of those who attend religious services weekly oppose the idea while majorities of those who attend services monthly, seldom, or never support the proposal. From our sample, just over half (53%) report at least weekly attendance at services, thus outweighing these more supportive groups.

Men are slightly more supportive of the proposal than are women. Although majorities of both groups oppose the concept, it trails 60%-33% with women but only 52%-43% with men.

While pluralities of African-Americans, Latinos, and Asian-Americans support the measure, opposition is driven by white voters who oppose it 60%-35%.

Opposition is universal across partisan groups and almost no gap between Democrats and Republicans shows itself in a time where partisan polarization shows itself on almost any political issue. It is actually independent voters who are most opposed with two-thirds of that group of voters expressing opposition.

METHODOLOGY & DEMOGRAPHICS

This survey was conducted by Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College on July 15-16, 2014.



The poll, which has a margin of error of +/-4.5%, was completed using IVR survey technology and live calls among 471 registered Craighead County voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. Roughly 78% of the survey respondents were landline users, while 22% were reached by cell phone.



All media outlets are welcome to reprint, reproduce, or rebroadcast information from this poll with proper attribution to Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College.



For interviews, contact Talk Business & Politics Editor-in-Chief Roby Brock by email at [email protected] or Dr. Jay Barth by email at [email protected].



Age

8% Under the age of 30

14.5% Between the ages of 30 and 44

35.5% Between the ages of 45 and 64

42% 65 or older



Ethnicity

7% African-American

2% Asian-American

85% Caucasian or White

3% Latino

3% Other



Party Identification

34% Democratic

27% Independent

29% Republican

10% Other



Gender

44% Male

56% Female