Three questions about who stole votes from who in the 2015 election

1. Where did the UKIPers come from?

2. Where did the Lib Dems go?

3. Who are the Green surge?

1. Where did the UKIPers come from?

Millions more people voted UKIP in 2015. But who did they vote for in 2010?

Contrary to what UKIP would like us to believe, they did not win the hearts of Labour voters in the North of England. Of the people who voted UKIP in 2015, most of them were ex-Tory voters (43%). Followed by people who also voted UKIP last time (19%), then ex-Lib Dems (18%). Only 14% of this years UKIP voters supported Labour at the 2o10 election.

2. Where did the Lib Dems go?

So we know the Lib Dem vote crashed. But who did all those disgruntled Lib Dems vote for this time?

The Greens were biggest winners from disappointed Lib Dem voters of 2010. Of the people who voted Lib Dem in 2010, 26% of them voted Green this time. In other words the Lib Dems lost a quarter of their vote to the Greens. No other party came near this. Labour stole 12% of the Lib Dems 2010 voters, all the other parties got less.

3. Who are the Green surge?

Given that a quarter of 2010 Lib Dem voters ditched them for the Greens in 2015, it’s no suprise that 50% of the Green vote was made up of former Lib Dem voters. The Green vote was made up of almost as many former Labour voters (18%) as loyal Green voters (19%).

About the data and graphics

The numbers are from a Lord Ashcroft poll. Over 12,000 people who had voted in the election were questioned on the 7th of May. The visualisations are Sankey Diagrams, generated using WikiBudgets.