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“In the year of implementation, we estimate that this new rule could depress demand by 5% to 10%, and shave 2% to 4% off of our current forecast for the average price level in 2018,” the authors said, as the proposed measures will act as another force that limits price growth in the future.

Those consumers, who often have as little as five per cent down, must qualify based on the posted five-year rate of the Bank of Canada, which is currently 4.84 per cent.

The economists suggest changes to tighten the rules on non-insured mortgages will lead buyers to “come up with a bigger down payment, opt for a lower priced home and scale back other debt,” and may even delay purchases all together.

As part of the report “Navigating a Soft Landing”, the economists looked at the “unprecedented” number of policy changes over the past 18 months.

Other key changes implemented by Ottawa included increasing the minimum down payment on homes worth more than $500,000 and reducing portfolio insurance, a program that allowed financial institutions to securitize loans they deemed risky, but not legally required to be insured.

“Each successive regulation change at the federal level has left a smaller mark on home buying activity,” the economists wrote, noting the most recent changes from Ottawa during that 18-month period may have only shaved two per cent off of demand.

Previous changes, beyond the ones OSFI is currently considering which the real estate industry has asked Ottawa to put on hold, have been aimed at the insured market. The problem is new loans that require mortgage insurance are less than 20 per cent of all new chartered bank mortgage originations, down from 40 per cent in 2008. Recent rule changes impact the insured market but it is increasingly a smaller part of the overall market.