John Kerry has set out the US framework for a Palestinian-Israeli settlement in an attempt to protect what is left of the peace process before Donald Trump takes office

The two-state solution in the Middle East – all you need to know

The US secretary of state, John Kerry, has set out the parameters for a potential resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a last throw of the dice on this issue for the Obama administration. His speech focused on the “two-state solution”.

What’s the basic idea?

For decades, the two-state solution has been held up by the international community as the only realistic deal to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Its basis is two separate states, Israel and Palestine, living peacefully side by side on the land between the western bank of the Jordan river and the Mediterranean Sea. This territory would be divided broadly along the pre-1967 armistice line or “green line” – probably with some negotiated land swaps. Jerusalem, which both sides want as their capital, would be shared.



What are the obstacles?

Past negotiations have failed to make progress and there are currently no fresh talks in prospect. The main barriers are borders, security, Jerusalem, refugees, Israel’s insistence on being recognised as a “Jewish state” and the Palestinians’ political and geographical split between the West Bank and Gaza.



The Palestinians demand that the border of their new state should follow the green line, giving them 22% of their historic land. But Israel, which has built hundreds of settlements on the Palestinian side of the green line over the past 50 years, insists that most of these should become part of Israel – requiring a new border which would mean, according to critics, the annexation of big chunks of the West Bank. Land swaps could go some way to compensate but negotiations have stalled on this fundamental issue.



Israel wants assurances of its security behind whatever borders may be established in a two-state solution.

Jerusalem is another obstacle. Israel has said it cannot agree any deal which sees the city shared or divided between the two sides. The Palestinians say they will not cede their claim and access to their holy sites, all of which are located in East Jerusalem, on the Palestinian side of the green line.



The Palestinians have long insisted that refugees from the 1948 war and their descendants should have the right to return to their former homes, although many diplomats believe they would settle for a symbolic “right of return”. Israel rejects any movement on this issue.



Israel insists that the Palestinians must recognise Israel as a “Jewish state”. The Palestinians say this would deny the existence of the one in five Israeli citizens who are Palestinian.



Any potential deal is complicated by the political breach between Fatah and Hamas, the two main Palestinian factions, and the geographical split between the West Bank and Gaza.



Can it still happen?

For years, international diplomats, Palestinians and some Israelis have been warning that time is running out as Israel’s continued settlement expansion swallows up land that would become part of Palestine. Many Palestinians and some Israelis now say the line has already been crossed and the two-state solution is impossible; privately many diplomats agree.



What is Trump’s view?

During his election campaign, Donald Trump pledged to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, a potentially explosive move as it would signal that the US considered the city to be Israel’s capital. The president-elect has also suggested that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict simply may not be a priority for his administration.

He has appointed as US ambassador to Israel David Friedman, a fervent opponent of a two-state solution, a big supporter of settlement expansion and a vocal champion of an undivided Jerusalem as Israel’s “eternal capital”.



Is there an alternative?

The Israeli hard right has pushed for annexation of the West Bank, with its Palestinian population living permanently under military rule or being pressed to relocate to neighbouring Arab countries.



Many Palestinians and some Israelis now advocate a “one-state solution”, with the focus turning to a civil rights campaign for Palestinians – who would soon be a majority in a binational state. This would effectively be the end of the Jewish homeland, and thus unacceptable to the vast majority of global Jews and many others.

• This article was updated on 15 February 2017 to include Israel’s concern to be assured of its future security under any two-state solution.

