Given the current administration’s efforts to contain China, Minxin Pei believes it is time for the US to launch a “credible public” debate on Trump’s “adversarial” policy on China. This approach is not only a departure from his predecessors’ policy of engagement, it is starting an overture to a great-power rivalry, plunging the world’s two largest economies into a new cold war, and raising the “spectre” of an armed conflict in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

In 2016 Trump ran as a China-bashing candidate. Since he took office, relations with Beijing have deteriorated. As part of this confrontation is his zero-sum mentality on trade, which would take a toll on many Americans’ livelihoods, should the dispute remain unresolved. Although the two economic giants have moved into truce, Americans on both sides of the political aisle are seeing China as the “most serious long-term threat to America’s global preeminence and vital interests.”

The author maintains, a government cannot “pursue a long-term struggle” with a “powerful geopolitical adversary” without the public being informed of its policy. “Much of the American public is unaware of the extent of the transformation in US policy toward China.” There are “crucial” questions about this administration’s China policy, especially its “ultimate objective,” that need to be answered, when they revolve around the “modification of certain Chinese behaviors or policies, containment of Chinese economic or military might, or outright regime change.”

The conflict goes deeper than bilateral trade imbalance, unfair trade practices, intellectual property theft and forced technology transfer. It is really about China’s rise in recent years as a formidable bidder for geopolitical influence, aspiring to lead economically and technologically, despite Beijing’s claim that it is “not seeking global dominance.” Although Trump once said that “trade wars are good and easy to win,” his tariffs are “likely to do serious harm to the US economy.”

The author says this conflict did not offer a “reasoned justification for America’s treatment of China as an existential threat.” Behind the strategy of undermining Beijing’s “long-term economic potential” is also the “underlying motivation” to weaken China as a “strategic rival.” Although Trump sees China as a national security threat and a trade policy violator, the two issues belong to two different fields, which require the administration to adopt different rationales and set its goals accordingly.

Unfortunately Trump tends to cut the Gordian Knot in one blow. Incapable of sorting things out, he and his feckless advisers lump everything together. The various problems the US has with China need to be dealt with separately, at the same time in parallel, because they impact each other. Trump quit the nuclear deal Iran signed with world powers in May 2018, saying his predecessor should have tackled Iran’s non-nuclear activities, such as its sponsorship of terrorist groups etc. – issues that need to be discussed separately, because they have nothing to do with Iran’s compliance with JCPOA.

Due to deep-rooted strategic mistrust towards China, US politicians have adopted an increasingly protective and isolationist approach. The author says, an “economic decoupling,” favored by the China hawks in Trump’s “orbit” is neither an “effective” nor “feasible” strategy. Economists believe that any US efforts to “decouple” China from the global economy “will damage [America’s] international role and reputation, and undermine the economic interests of all nations.”

The whole world would have to “bear the brunt of the costs” of an unfolding Sino-American cold war, forcing countries – “even traditional US allies” – to take sides. And the US can not be sure that it could convince others to support its cause. Even if the US were “willing (or able) to go it alone,” it would not be able to tackle all the global challenges on its own in a multi-polar world.

In our world of interdependence “multilateral cooperation” is required to “confront shared challenges.” Despite rivalry and animosity, China and the US would most likely put their national interests aside and cooperate on issues like “climate change and nuclear proliferation,” that are actually the existential threats the whole world is facing.

If history is anything to go by, there is hope that it could happen between China and the US. There were periods of cooperation during times of war and geopolitical struggle between the US and the Soviet Union.