But in recent days, both Trump and his top advisers have tried to jam the wall back into the negotiations. Mick Mulvaney, the president’s budget director, has suggested a trade in which the administration would agree to continue making payments to health insurers that Democrats are seeking for the Affordable Care Act if they agreed to begin funding the wall. Democrats rejected the idea immediately, but Reince Priebus, the chief of staff, and Sean Spicer, the chief spokesman, have continued to insist the wall money is a top priority for the president, along with extra funds for the Defense Department that Democrats are less likely to oppose.

“If the administration insists on funding for a wall in this bill, it will endanger the prospects of a bill passing and raise the prospects of a government shutdown,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer warned in a floor speech on Monday afternoon.

Yet despite the administration’s increasingly aggressive advocacy for the wall money, it’s not clear that Trump would actually shut down the government over it. Would the president veto a spending bill that stiffed his treasured project? Neither he nor his senior aides have been willing to make that threat. In comments over the weekend and on Monday, they’ve each left open the possibility of a compromise in which Democrats would approve more money for border security so long as it doesn’t go toward developing or constructing a physical wall. And in a meeting on Monday with conservative journalists, Trump reportedly said he would be willing to wait until the next government funding battle in September to get money for the wall. Democrats leaped at the possibility that the president had flinched; Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi each released statements praising Trump for apparently softening his demands.

Congress could also head off a last-minute standoff by doing what it does best—buying more time. Republican leaders could put up a bill extending the funding deadline by a few days or even a week, thereby avoiding the embarrassment of national parks and museums closing their doors on Trump’s 100th day in office. Democrats have the power to shut down the government by staging a filibuster in the Senate, and they have warned that they will only support a stopgap measure if the parties have reached a broader agreement. But they would be hard-pressed to block a short-term bill that continues current funding without objectionable policies.

Democrats clearly relish the idea of a showdown with Trump over the wall. Congressional Republicans, on the other hand, do not. “I wouldn’t risk a $1 trillion funding bill for a $3 billion wall,” Cole said Monday on “Morning Joe.” “There’s another way, another time, to do this.”

Republicans remember well that they took the blame for the last government shutdown, in 2013. And that was when Democrats held both the White House and the Senate. In this case, it would be Democrats provoking a shutdown if they blocked legislation containing funding for the wall with a Senate filibuster. But leaders in both parties believe that voters would fault the party they just entrusted with unified control of the government.