… and, I presume, nothing with understanding the present either!

A correspondent who must not wish me well directs me to the latest path of radioactive fallout from Robert Murphy's 5000-word "only jerks use Bayes's Rule to update their beliefs" post:

Robert Murphy:

Suppose I bet… $500 that Team X would win the Superbowl, and then I lost. Would you guys say that was a foolish thing, and that I obviously didn't understand Mises? Suppose I take an umbrella with me to work, because I see thunderclouds and make a prediction about the future. Would you email me Rothbard's critique of econometrics?

No… you would say, "Bob is making a bet. This doesn't have anything to do with Austrian economics. He isn't misapplying the theory, and he's not jeopardizing the integrity of the movement because--as the author of several study guides on Mises and Rothbard--surely Murphy knows Austrian economics has nothing to do with predictions about the future."