With approximately three months remaining in the regular season, the New Orleans Pelicans are in a tough spot from an organizational perspective. The combination of their 15-23 record (partially fueled by a seven-game losing streak), harsh batch of injuries, and the stacked Western Conference have made the playoffs an unlikely proposition.

What makes their situation so much stickier is the fact that their first round pick goes to the Philadelphia 76ers to complete the Jrue Holiday trade unless it falls in the top five. Despite losing seven games in a row and having a 0.8% chance of making the playoffs according to the Hollinger Playoff Odds, the Pelicans currently possess the ninth-worst record in the league.

In fact, even if New Orleans gets all the way down to the fifth-worst record, they would still have a 44.8 percent chance of falling out of the top five and losing the pick to Philadelphia since all it would take is them not moving into the top five and any team behind them jumping in. As such, getting all the way to the fourth-worst record would put that risk down to a more manageable 17.2 percent.

That line between fourth and fifth could prove incredibly interesting. The bottom group right now includes a Milwaukee franchise devoid of hope for this season, an Orlando team that has lost nine in a row, a Philadelphia organization seemingly ready to trade almost all of their most productive players, and a Boston team halfway down that road. That group does not even include Utah because they have played reasonably well since Trey Burke joined the lineup.

While it can be more nuanced, there are two larger paths teams can follow to lose games. The more common one happens just by being worse than most of your opponents and largely still trying your best. Here, the Pelicans actually benefit greatly from being in the Western Conference since even teams like the Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Lakers who presently have worse records are still trying to win at this point. Additionally, every other team in their division has a respectable shot at the playoffs which helps as well. The challenge for a New Orleans team that takes this more organic losing mentality comes in the form of Anthony Davis. A legitimately special player, it feels like Davis can will the Pelicans to at least a few wins just by virtue of his dominance. Furthermore, the team has little case from a developmental standpoint to sit their best young player since he only has 95 games of NBA experience after missing almost 20 games last season.

As long as it would not alienate the franchise cornerstone, New Orleans would be wise to take a few steps down the darker path of self-sabotage. What that effectively means in their context is a shift in minutes from “win now” guys (helped by Ryan Anderson and Jrue missing time now) to more… developmental players like Austin Rivers and Jeff Withey. That kind of change would make the team more beatable this year but actually help from a developmental and talent analysis standpoint, giving the organization a leg to stand on with the media and season ticket holders.

The real peril of this road comes if the team continues to win more than necessary to retain their pick since a near miss would hurt more from a fan perspective since the rewards would be substantially weaker. That delicate balance could be tested since the Pelicans play Milwaukee and Utah twice and Orlando, Boston, and Chicago once each the rest of the way.

Falling from the ninth-best record to sixth or maybe even fifth could happen pretty painlessly since Sacramento and Cleveland actively want to win more games while the Lakers and Jazz may be a little less terrible than the New Orleans M*A*S*H unit. Furthermore, some consider “tanking” a more doable thing than it usually turns out to be since the players and coaches do not have the same organizational incentives to lose. On top of that, it can be incredibly dispiriting to the whole team to have a stretch rough enough to carry this team to a top five pick in this year of intense talent disparity.

The Pelicans are in a rough spot and will need strong leadership and some good fortune to end up wherever they want to go this season.