The Facts

Brock Boeser’s contract will expire on July 1, 2019, though the Vancouver Canucks will retain his rights as a Restricted Free Agent if they have not already signed him to an extension by then—provided they qualify his contract with a qualifying offer, an occurrence so certain it barely merits mention. This expiring contract was Boeser’s Entry-Level Contract and was thus subject to several Entry-Level salary restraints. His next contract will have no such restrictions.

While many believe that Boeser can’t sign an extension until January 1, 2019, that rule actually only applies to those players on one-year contracts. As a player on a multiyear deal, Boeser can sign an extension at any point in the last year of his contract—meaning he could have re-signed with the Canucks as early as July 1, 2018. Presumably, both sides have been negotiating intermittently since that date.

This time around, Boeser’s contract will only be subject to the same constraints put on all NHL contracts. He can sign for a maximum of eight years with Vancouver—or seven with another team if an offer sheet enters the picture—and he can only sign for an amount, including all bonuses, that does not exceed 20% of his team’s salary cap. With the cap set at $79.5 million for the 2018/19 season, that adds up to a maximum of $15.9 million in terms of individual cap hit.

Advertisement - Continue Reading Below

By taking a look at some of Boeser’s closest comparables around the league, we’ll try to make our best guess at what sort of contract he can be expected to sign.

Brock Boeser’s Accomplishments

In his NHL career thus far, Boeser has put together an impressive resume. As NHL contract negotiations typically start with the raw numbers, so will we. All of Boeser’s stats are current as of December 27, 2018.

Player Age NHL Seasons Draft+ Seasons Points-per-Game Brock Boeser 21 (Turns 22 on Feb. 25) ~2 Draft+5 0.86

Obvious Comparables

After looking at statistics, NHL negotiators on either side gather a list of comparable contracts upon which base the new contract. Below, we’ve gathered the most obvious comparables to Boeser (high-scoring wingers coming off ELCs) from the last few seasons and included a snapshot of their stats at the time they signed their extension, as well as details of the contract they signed.

Advertisement - Continue Reading Below

The percentage of the salary cap that their cap hit represented when they signed their contract is included to provide important context across multiple years of fluctuating caps.

Player Year Extension Signed Age NHL Seasons Draft+ Seasons Points-per-Game Cap Hit (Millions) /Years % of Salary Cap Johnny Gaudreau 2016 23 3 Draft+5 0.89 $6.75/Six Years 9.25% David Pastrnak 2017 22 3 Draft+3 0.72 $6.67/Six Years 8.89% Nikolaj Ehlers 2017 22 2 Draft+3 0.66 $6/Seven Years 8% Vladimir Tarasenko 2015 23 3 Draft+5 0.75 $7.5/Eight Years 10.27% Filip Forsberg 2016 21 2.5 Draft+4 0.73 $6/Six Years 8.22%

This small group of comparables demonstrates pretty clearly that the Canucks can expect to dedicate at least 8% of their total salary cap to Boeser’s contract, and to commit to at least six years worth of term.

The Full Field Of Comparable Contracts

The fine folks at CapFriendly.com have put together a handy tool for compiling contract comparables on their site. Using that tool, we were able to chart the 20 best comparables from the last few seasons for a player of Boeser’s age and production levels below. Using those numbers (which are all based on the time at which each player signed their extension), we can establish both a range and an average of what to expect when Boeser re-signs. Here’s a link for the CapFriendly input parameters we used to get the results.

Player Cap Hit (Millions) Advertisement - Continue Reading Below /Years Points-per-Game % of Salary Cap Nikolaj Ehlers $6/Seven Years 0.66 8% David Pastrnak $6.67/Six Years 0.72 8.89% Johnny Gaudreau $6.75/Six Years 0.89 9.25% Sean Monahan $6.38/Seven Years 0.67 8.73% Ryan Nugent-Hopkins $6/Seven Years 0.75 9.33% Vladimir Tarasenko $7.5/Eight Years 0.75 10.27% Nathan MacKinnon $6.3/Seven Years 0.70 8.63% Jonathan Drouin $5.5/Six Years 0.58 7.53% Leon Draisaitl $8.5/Eight Years 0.72 11.33% Alex Tuch $4.75/Seven Years 0.44 5.97% Filip Forsberg $6/Six Years 0.73 8.22% Evgeny Kuznetsov $7.8/Eight Years 0.70 10.4% Gabriel Landeskog $5.57/Seven Years 0.58 8.66% Jake Guentzel $6/Five Years 0.72 7.55% Mark Scheifele $6.13/Eight Years 0.64 8.39% Bo Horvat $5.5/Six Years 0.51 7.33% Brandon Saad $6/Six Years 0.61 8.22% Aleksander Barkov $5.9/Six Years 0.57 8.08% Dylan Larkin $6.1/Five Years 0.58 7.67% Jonathan Huberdeau $5.9/Six Years 0.63 8.08% Range X 0.44-0.89 5.97%-11.33% Average X 0.66 9%

When comparing Brock Boeser’s numbers to the field above, it is important to remember that Boeser was the beneficiary of a short, but excellent, rookie season, which gives his career points-per-game a serious boost. His games-played totals are also lower than where most of these players were when they signed their contracts, due to Boeser’s multiple injuries.

That being said, Boeser’s production is in the highest tier of this comparable chart, and that probably means his eventual compensation will be, too.

Intangible Considerations

Of course, hockey isn’t just about the statistics, and neither are contract negotiations. At some point in the back-and-forth, so-called “intangible” considerations must enter the mix.

Advertisement - Continue Reading Below

In the case of Brock Boeser, the intangible attribute most likely to come up during negotiations is his proneness to injury. Boeser battled injuries even before his pro career began, and he’s suffered some serious maladies as an NHL player. While some—like the open gate-induced broken back—were definitely freak occurrences that don’t necessarily point to Boeser being prone to anything other than bad luck, it’s definitely fair to say that thus far Boeser has been injured more frequently, and more severely, than the average sophomore.

That being said, Boeser has also demonstrated an impeccable ability to bounce back from his injuries, and that’s just one of the many positive intangibles that he brings to the table. Boeser is a remarkable person on and off the ice, and there haven’t been the slightest hint of character issues since he was drafted. He proved against the Tampa Bay Lightning on December 18 just how dedicated he is to his teammates, and he undoubtedly has the squad’s respect.

Boeser does not appear to be the sort of individual who takes charge of a team, and that’s why he hasn’t been prominent in the discussion of the team’s captaincy. But when it comes to most other personal attributes, he’s a coach’s dream. Whenever his new contract is signed, the intangible considerations will be counted heavily in Boeser’s favour.

How Much Money?

Based on his field of comparables, Brock Boeser should be expected to demand a cap hit equal to anywhere between 8.5 and 10.5% of the total salary cap.

In 2018/19 dollars, that translates to an average cap hit of between $6.76 and $8.35 million per season. Subsequently, a cap hit of $7.5 million seems like the safest middle-ground bet, though his superior offensive totals could easily justify a contract closer to the upper range.

How Much Term?

Six years seems to be the going rate for players of Boeser’s age and ilk. Anything longer will require the Canucks to buy up more years of potential Unrestricted Free Agency from Boeser, and that will necessitate a higher cap hit. From Boeser’s perspective, a six-year deal allows him to cash in on another high-value contract by still being in his prime when this one expires—he’d be just 28 years old at that point.

Prediction

Brock Boeser will re-sign for six years at an average cap hit of $7.5 million.





