October 28, 2015

Economic activity in August increased 2.6% over the same month last year, which was a slight deterioration over the 2.7% increase seen in the previous month and marked the slowest increase in three months.



Compared to the previous month, economic activity in August fell 0.20% in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted the 0.10% increase seen in July.



As a result of the national statistical institute’s change to the base year of the index from 1993 to 2004 in March 2014, the index brings the official estimates closer to the independent estimates that local private analysts produce, which have traditionally pointed to lower growth compared to official sources. However, there is still a discrepancy between official and non-official figures.

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect official GDP to increase 0.4% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panel participants expect official GDP to expand 1.6%. The panel sees non-official GDP contracting 0.3% in 2015; they expect it to rebound to a 0.8% expansion in 2016.