As they pushed the ship off shore again, trying to see whether it will finally float, Maple Leafs coach Randy Carlyle gave his crew one final huzzah to carry them through the season.

"The last words I said to the players: 'It's up to you now,'" Carlyle said, shortly before the home opener against Montreal.

As war cries go, this lands somewhere between Henry V and the Washington Generals.

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The winning and losing of hockey games will be on the players. He's right about that much. The blame, however, will fall entirely on Carlyle.

From this point on, he's no longer the coach of the Toronto hockey team. He's the guy walking point in the Leafs minefield. Everyone else in the organization gets to trail behind him, trodding in his footsteps, avoiding danger as long as Carlyle manages it first.

Case in point – club president Brendan Shanahan, when asked what the team's preseason message is to fans.

"I think the message is something that has to be earned," Shanahan said.

As he said it, you could see the gears spinning behind his eyes. "The best way to speak to our fans is in how we play."

In other words: Ask Randy.

It's just started and you already feel sorry for Carlyle.

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Fattened with a new contract, then stripped of all his human protection. Bereft of his tough guys. Tipped by the bookies as the first coach in the NHL to get fired. Trying to figure out who his boss is in Toronto these days – Shanahan? General manager Dave Nonis? The kids with the numbers?

When cogitating these sorts of existential questions, it's best to ask yourself, 'Cui bono?' – Who benefits?

Though Carlyle is not really his guy, Nonis knows he's the next man on the plank if the coach gets the sack. No one in this organization wants Carlyle to thrive more.

The new wonks in assistant GM roles have begun to assert themselves, after the early clipping of enforcers Colton Orr and Frazer McLaren.

It'd suit them in the short term if the Leafs do well, since they'll naturally be connected to a combination of fresh thinking and positive results. If things go sideways early – and Toronto is looking at a very tough month of October – they'll take the heat from traditionalists. They also need Carlyle to succeed, for now.

Above them all sits the real power – Shanahan. His position is simple. Whatever happens to the Leafs or Carlyle this year, Shanahan wins.

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If the Leafs make the playoffs, Shanahan takes the credit. That's natural. Between last year and this one, he's the most visible thing that changed. All of his options are still open if that happens. He can stick with things as they are, and reference continuity. He can make huge changes, and reference improvement.

But once he takes either one of those choices, Shanahan has started his own Doomsday Clock. For this season only, he exists out of time.

Whatever they are, the Leafs are not a contender. Everyone in the organization understands that. This is why they give pep talks such as, "It's up to you," as if they're urging the players to flap their arms as they push them out a window.

If the goal is a championship, that means wholesale change. That in turn means turmoil and losing. Not losing the way they've been doing it for the last little while, but Oilers-level losing. If that must be confronted, better that it be confronted soon, with a blank slate and a broad mandate from fans to burn this thing to the ground.

With an eye on that sort of long term, a collapse might suit Shanahan best.

Drifting around in the midst of all this is Red Wings coach Mike Babcock. Two weeks ago, there was no chance the Leafs could get him. Now the Wings are about to start the year and Babcock still hasn't signed an extension. Whatever he's said about midseason negotiations, he still probably will. He may feel he owes 85-year-old team owner Mike Ilitch that much. Shanahan's best chance lies in another consideration – whether Babcock wants to take the chance of eventually working for Ilitch's kids.

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Shanahan isn't talking about it, but you know he's thinking it. Babcock is the Leafs president's white whale. He changes the calculus entirely. Babcock gives this team three or four gruesome rebuilding years, because people will want to believe the best coach in the game has a plan.

From a management perspective, signing Babcock is bigger than any player acquisition because it doesn't just buy you credibility, it buys you time.

That's the key here, whether Babcock's available or not – time, and buying it.

Carlyle won't be the first coach fired, since there's no point in doing that. As long as he can explain it to the fan base, Shanahan will continue to pull the current coach along toward the end of the season. That's the earliest Shanahan needs – or wants – to make any big decisions. In between, the team just has to win enough to convince the most pie-eyed optimist (i.e. everyone in the city wearing blue) that it's still possible. In this league, it's always possible.

Ahead of the opener, on a very brisk weekday night, they packed Maple Leaf Square outside the Air Canada Centre. Toronto never forgets, but man, does this city know how to forgive.

Those people are Randy Carlyle's bosses now. As long as they're docile, he's safe.

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If they turn on him, he can exhale. That's the signal that his worrying is ending, and that Shanahan's is about to begin.