The pitching matchup of Anthony DeSclafani and Drew Smyly on paper may not sound like one side has a big advantage, but DeSclafani has posted a 3.25 ERA over his past 11 starts and appears to be coming into his own.

The Reds have gone 5-6 in those 11 starts, but a lot of this has to do with the regression of the bullpen, which was in the top 10 in the MLB in ERA prior to the All-Star break but ranks 25th since.

The Phillies, meanwhile, rank 17th in bullpen ERA since the All-Star break, which will not help too much considering Smyly gave up at least four earned runs in three of his five starts in August. For the month, he gave up nine home runs in 25 innings and had a 7.20 ERA.

The Reds are the best Under team in baseball for the season, but they are starting to get the long ball going as Aristides Aquino and Eugenio Suarez hit a combined 24 home runs in August.

Though the Phillies went 3-2 in Smyly’s starts in August despite his very high ERA, regression should set in, especially with DeSclafani being highly effective recently.

The Play: Reds, -152