Legally, Republican Texas Rep. Joe Barton might be a victim of a crime after a nude and lewd photo and video of him were posted online this week.

Morally, his judgment is up for interpretation.

Politically, he might be toast.

"It's a very sad story. It's sad to see, potentially, his career end this way. It's sad for him and his family," said Matt Mackowiak, an Austin-based Republican strategist. "But I don't know that this story is over. There's probably a couple more twists and turns here and things we're going to learn. Ultimately, my guess is he's going to retire."

But Mackowiak and other political experts say Barton, who has been in Congress for nearly 33 years, still could survive after getting caught with his pants down. As long as he can endure the embarrassment, that is.

And they say Barton is definitely not in the same boat as his infamous former House colleague felled by a sexting scandal, Anthony Weiner.

"There's not the same sense of schadenfreude about Barton that there was about Weiner," Mackowiak said. "That's probably because of how each of them has carried themselves in politics."

Weiner was a liberal firebrand who made plenty of enemies. Barton, Mackowiak said, has earned a reputation as a serious legislator who is generally well-liked by colleagues and isn't out to get attention for himself.

But Barton also immediately came out with a statement in which he apologized and explained the situation. That contrasts sharply with the way Weiner, a younger legislator who was expecting a child with Hillary Clinton's longtime aide Huma Abedin, initially lied about his sexting relationships, saying he was hacked. The unanswered questions that dragged out over days amplified Weiner's scandal.

Texas GOP Chairman James Dickey agreed that the cases are different, but said both Weiner's and Barton's troubles share one "consistent message that everyone should take to heart: We should all think very hard before we post, text or otherwise share anything."

Dickey added that Barton's situation was "clearly unfortunate" but that Barton and voters will ultimately have to decide on the Ennis politician's future.

"It's our understanding that Rep. Barton is thinking about what his next steps ought to be," Dickey said. "We hope that he comes to a clear conclusion, and we hope others learn a lesson from this."

After his scandal, Weiner resigned and then tried two years later to stage a political comeback. But his prospects in the New York City mayoral race plummeted after a second set of sexting allegations became public.

Barton won't be able to lie low. He already announced that he intends to run for re-election, bucking the trend of retirements among his fellow congressional Republicans.

"I'm the odd duck who didn't quit ... shows how much sense I have," Barton said in an interview before the lewd photos surfaced.

But now, said Guy Harrison, former executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Barton is "essentially going to be on an apology tour with his constituents."

Harrison, a partner with OnMessage Inc., said the whole incident has an "ick factor" and that Barton, if nothing else, "should have been more discreet" because he's a member of Congress.

Brian Mayes, a Dallas-area political consultant who has worked in Arlington, said Barton is vulnerable "if he gets a motivated opponent" — especially a family-oriented community leader. In addition, the Republican primary could be free of many top-of-the-ticket battles, making low turnout statewide a real possibility.

Mayes said Barton risks getting lumped in, "fairly or unfairly," with sexual misconduct allegations in Congress. And Barton shouldn't get a break just because his sexting was consensual, Mayes said.

"This is something you'd expect from a young, immature college kid, not a grandfather," Mayes said.

But Mark Jones, a Rice University political scientist, said Barton won't be tarred the same way as Sen. Al Franken or Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore. The women weren't underage, the interactions were consensual and, while Barton was still married when the relationships started, he has said he was separated at the time.

Jones believes Barton can still survive politically. His district is solidly Republican, and no credible Republican has filed to run against him yet. If someone does step forward with only a few weeks left in the filing period, they could be seen as an opportunist trying to take advantage of "a relatively sympathetic character," Jones said.

"As long as nothing else comes out and Congressman Barton has a thick enough hide to withstand the inevitable jokes and critiques and barbs at his expense over the next year, he's still in relatively good shape to run for re-election," Jones said.

But another shoe could still drop. The Washington Post reported Wednesday night that Barton threatened to call the Capitol Hill police if one of the women shared the photos to damage his career. The woman, who was not named, also told The Post that she had spoken online to other women with whom Barton had similar relationships.

The woman alleged that Barton, whom she had recorded, was trying to intimidate her.

But Washington-based lawyer Mark Zaid, who has handled revenge porn cases, said he didn't see a problem with Barton saying he might call the police. Under Texas law, Barton could be a victim of revenge porn.

"Anybody should feel for this guy," Zaid said.

Zaid said "tons of people, everyday, all the time" send lewd photos in relationships with other consenting adults. But he questioned whether that was a good idea for a member of Congress because it could make them susceptible to coercion or extortion.

Still, Zaid said he doesn't know how the public will ultimately judge Barton's misadventures.

"In the current climate of sexual harassment, it will be incredibly interesting to see how this case plays out in the public domain, as well as the legal one," he said.