This week’s report glimpses at the end of January and the beginnings of February, which is a big day for sports fans in America as the Super Bowl takes place on Sunday, February 2.

Two new releases will hit cinemas that weekend in hopes of counter-programming the big game. First up, Gretel and Hansel revisits the classic folk tale from The Brothers Grimm and features Sophia Lillis, one of the breakout stars from It.

Early buzz and social trends for the film are muted at this stage, although there is plenty of time for things to pick up as marketing kicks in after the holiday season. Appeal to teens and young adults will be strongest here, but we’re additionally concerned by the recent history of similar titles opening on Super Bowl weekend, leading to conservative forecasts at this time. Our current models identify closest with 2016’s Pride and Prejudice and Zombies.

Second up, The Rhythm Section will court adult viewers with stars Blake Lively and Jude Law leading the way. Based on Mark Burnell’s series of revenge-thriller novels, early trends suggest a fair opening weekend is possible thanks to what should be a mostly female-driven turnout. Again, though, the game will be deterrent for many moviegoers on Sunday.

Fans of Lively in particular should be drivers here after her successful turns in films like The Shallows, Age of Adaline, and A Simple Favor. Current forecasting models for Rhythm are in line with similar genre films like Cold Pursuit and Peppermint, while not far behind those of Red Sparrow and Atomic Blonde.

Next week, we’ll offer up our first public projections for Warner Bros. and DC’s anticipated Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn, slated to open Friday, February 7.

8-Week Tracking and Forecasts

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Range Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Distributor 12/13/2019 Black Christmas $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 $14,000,000 $30,000,000 – $40,000,000 $37,700,000 Universal 12/13/2019 Jumanji: The Next Level $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 $44,000,000 -12% $200,000,000 – $275,000,000 $210,000,000 -21% Sony / Columbia 12/13/2019 Richard Jewell $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $13,000,000 $60,000,000 – $80,000,000 $80,000,000 Warner Bros. 12/20/2019 Cats $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 $14,000,000 $60,000,000 – $120,000,000 $69,000,000 -8% Universal 12/20/2019 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker $185,000,000 – $225,000,000 $200,000,000 $550,000,000 – $750,000,000 $680,000,000 Disney / Lucasfilm 12/20/2019 Bombshell (Wide Expansion) $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $6,000,000 20% $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 $40,000,000 Lionsgate 12/25/2019 Little Women (2019) $16,000,000 – $26,000,000 $20,000,000 $80,000,000 – $120,000,000 $100,000,000 Sony / Columbia 12/25/2019 Spies in Disguise $13,000,000 – $23,000,000 $16,000,000 $70,000,000 – $110,000,000 $80,000,000 Fox / Blue Sky 12/25/2019 Uncut Gems (Wide) n/a n/a A24 1/3/2020 The Grudge (2020) $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 $14,000,000 $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 $32,000,000 Sony / Columbia 1/10/2020 1917 (Wide) $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 $23,000,000 10% $75,000,000 – $100,000,000 $90,000,000 10% Universal / DreamWorks 1/10/2020 Just Mercy (Wide) $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 $14,000,000 $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 $59,000,000 Warner Bros. 1/10/2020 Like a Boss $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 $17,000,000 $45,000,000 – $60,000,000 $51,000,000 Paramount 1/10/2020 Underwater $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $6,500,000 $12,000,000 – $25,000,000 $18,000,000 Fox 1/17/2020 Bad Boys for Life $21,000,000 – $31,000,000 $25,000,000 $55,000,000 – $75,000,000 $64,000,000 Sony / Columbia 1/17/2020 Dolittle $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $40,000,000 $120,000,000 – $170,000,000 $145,000,000 Universal 1/24/2020 The Gentlemen $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000 $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $38,000,000 STX 1/24/2020 The Last Full Measure n/a n/a Roadside Attractions 1/24/2020 Run n/a n/a Lionsgate / Summit 1/24/2020 The Turning $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $14,000,000 $25,000,000 – $40,000,000 $38,000,000 Universal 1/31/2020 Gretel and Hansel $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $5,500,000 NEW $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 $11,000,000 NEW United Artists Releasing 1/31/2020 The Rhythm Section $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000 NEW $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 $38,000,000 NEW Paramount

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Alex Edghill contributed to this report