MSU 2014 Predictions

Recruiting-Battle Deciding Recruits/Players-on-Competitor-Schools

School Player Affected Recruit Prediction/Comment

Duke Quinn Cook Tyus Jones I doubt Quinn Cook goes pro after his Junior year, which means that Tyus Jones would have to share the point with Quinn Cook. This is the single biggest question to play out this coming year. Hopefully Cook takes a step, but not a huge one. Prediction: Cook stays for his senior year and Jones goes elsewhere.

Duke Rodney Hood Justise Winslow Rodney Hood will be sharing the SF/wing with Jabari Parker this year and will likely stay for another year so that he can be the BMOC his junior year. If he stays as "the star" Winslow looks elsewhere (especially if Matt Jones and Semi Ojeyele show well this next year).

Duke Semi Ojeyele Justise Winslow Rodney Hood will definitely be good this year, but if he is not NBA ready (as I am betting he won't be), then Ojeyele will be scrapping for minuntes and looking for a big role his sophomore year (still from the bench), playing the exact same position that Winslow would hope to have.

Duke Marshall Plumlee Jahlil Okafor Marshall Plumlee looked solid for a freshman second-tier big-man. He has good athleticism and agility, great height, and great pedigree. I am guessing that he does well this coming year and looks to be a star-in-the-making moving into the 2014-15 season. This would never scare Okafor away, but I am guessing that it helps muddy the waters of the Big-Three scenario...

Duke Amile Jefferson Kevon Looney/Trey Lyles Amile Jefferson is reportedly bulking up and looking to really improve off of a strong Freshman season, I think he will take a step-up, but not be ready to leave after this year. I project him as part of a powerhouse line-up of returning players for Duke moving into the 2014-15 season.

Duke Justise Winslow Tyus Jones/Jahlil Okafor Justise Winslow is great friends with Jones and Okafor, and there are many analysists predicting that all three end up attending Duke together. I think it is possible, but I doubt it will happen. Winslow is from Texas and has many other possible locations that would be much, much clearer for him roster-wise (Baylor, Florida, Arizona, UCLA, and Stanford will all have either starting or sole-back-up spots with his name on them, which Duke will not have). So while I rate the possibility of this trio ending up at Duke at about 55%, I am very doubtful that this happens. If Winslow commits to Duke early, the chances get higher...he is a very important non-MSU-recruit to track. The most important.

Duke Trey Lyles Kevon Looney Trey Lyles an IU-decommit is looking at 6 schools (Duke, UK, Louisville, UCLA, Butler, and Florida), I am guessing he is really choosing between the first three, and really between Duke and Louisville. He is an inside-out PF, and a heck of a player. But he would be moving into a PF rotation with Jefferson (is my guess), and that may be too rich for him to swallow. If he does commit that basically takes Duke out of the Kevon Looney running. For MSU's purposes we want him to commit to Duke, UK, Louisville, or Florida (as these are all schools targeting Looney). An early commitment here, would be a great thing for MSU.





Kentucky Dakari Johnson Cliff Alexander & Jahlil Okafor Dakari Johnson is a very good center prospect, a very complete player, who will be a dominant force on the collegiate level. The problem for him, that helps MSU's recruitment of Alexander and Okafor, is that he will be planted firmly behind Willie Cauley-Stein this year. A fact that, I believe, will ensure that he stays for another year. He may go "Daniel Orton," but I doubt it because Calipari has designs on him being the starting center to Karl Towns Jr.'s starting 4 (which would be an incredible duo). Keep an eye on Dakari Johnson--if he is breaking out and taking Cauley-Stein's minutes, then that is bad for MSU. The real challenge for MSU hopes is that the NBA loves potential and therefore may draft the kid even if he only plays 10-15 minutes a game (a la Daniel Orton---I will tell you now, Johnson is better than Orton was, so it would be a reasonable bet to take...). Bottom line: MSU wants this kid coming back for a sophomore campaign (from a recruiting stand-point that is).

Kentucky Kyle Wiltjer Cliff Alexander & Jahlil Okafor Kyle Wiltjer is a solid, if unspectacular player, the least athletic kid to ever play for Calipari, he will not leave after this year (or rather I would be shocked if he did); he is simply a non-functional NBA athlete, who lacks the speed, strength, or agility to guard any NBA player let alone position. He will stay and continue to eat up minutes at the PF spot--I am sure that Calipari regrets ever signing him as he has really been a clog in the UK-NBA artery. However, if he does leave then the PF rotation opens up more for Alexander (and Okafor). If he somehow (I am trying not to laugh here) becomes a stud this year, then that will spell trouble for MSU's recruitment of Alexander.

Kentucky Marcus Lee Cliff Alexander & Jahlil Okafor Marcus Lee is probably Calipari's greatest luxury this year, a second PF commit who will be fighting for back-up minutes. Calipari realizes that he needs experienced players to win a championship, and Lee is basically already locked in (I would imagine) as one of his "returning sophomores next year who is ready to breakout." From the MSU perspective, this is a very good thing. The more the UK PF/C rotation can be clogged by guys like Lee and Wiltjer, the less likely it is that either Alexander or Okafor (doubtful anyways) will go to UK. Again, if Lee blows up or takes all of the back-up PF minutes then that is a problem for MSU's recruitment of Cliff Alexander.

Kentucky Alex Poythress Devin Booker Poythress was a mystery all season long his freshman year, not as talented as previous tweener-forwards he failed to impact the season or score consistently. Looking ahead to this season, nothing is guaranteed for him, which is why he is potentially an "MSU-helper." While clearly a SF Poythress may struggle to dominate this year. He will be the number 4-5 option on the court if he starts (behind the Harrisons, Cauley-Stein, and Randle), and the wings will be clogged by Aaron Harrison, James Young, and Wiltjer (stealing some SF minutes I am sure). He may find himself as a junior on this team (although something tells me that he will get shoved out the door by Calipari, but we will have to see on that), which would be good news for MSU's competeing wing recruitments like Devin Booker and D'Angelo Russell. Although they play the 2 and Poythress the 3, Calipari's wing-interchanging means that there are really 4 positions on the court: PG, Wingx2, PF, C. So while Booker would not be a direct replacement he would have to consider all other wing factors in the 2014-15 rotation as competitors for minutes. If Poythress goes pro, it is not the end of the world for MSU recruitments (especially because Booker is a low-tier back-up for UK), but it is not preferable.

Kentucky James Young Devin Booker James Young should do very well at UK and should get plenty of run this year, but, because he is a freshman and it is foolish to predict freshmen seasons, he may not explode. If he struggles, and looks poised to return for a second year, then that will be great news for MSU's wing recruitments that conflict with UK. I predict that he goes pro after 1 year, but if he stays that would be great for MSU. Keep an eye on him and how many minutes he gets/how productive he is this coming season, especially early on. It will be fun to watch MSU's wings defned a guy, in the second game of the season, who never really considered MSU after Calipari came calling.

Kentucky Emmanuel Mudiay Tyus Jones Mudiay is the prototypical UK point recruit. Big, fast, physical, an attacker, and more of a full-throttle guy. This is the guy that Calipari would love to have, more so than Tyus Jones I believe. If Mudiay commits then you can count UK out of the Jones/Okafor race. I believe it will happen, and I would not be surprised if it happens this summer or early in the fall. There are a lot of good point guards in this class, so if Mudiay does not commit UK will get some other good players, but I would be surprised if he did not end up at UK. If he does not go to UK MSU fans should hope he goes to Baylor or Kansas.

Kentucky Trey Lyles Cliff Alexander & Jahlil Okafor Trey Lyles plays the same role, from the MSU perspective, that Wiltjer, Lee, and Dakari Johnson play: he makes an Alexander/Okafor commitment to UK much less likely. In fact, if Trey Lyles commits to UK then I would bet that Alexander commits to MSU and doesn't look back. I have covered his inside-out, polished game, and I am sure that his only hesitation about UK is the presence of Karl Towns Jr. who appears to play the exact same position/game that Lyles plays. It will be interesting to see where Lyles ends up, as Louisville is, I believe, the other major player. MSU fans want Lyles at either UK or Duke, as a commitment to either would help push either Kevon Looney or Cliff Alexander closer to MSU.

Kentucky Rashad Vaughn Devin Booker Rashad Vaughn is the SG in the 2014 class. Great size, great stroke from distance, and a terrific ball-handler/driver/slasher. I don't have a ton of insight into his recruitment, but I would imagine that he is one of Calipari's top priorities. To replace the Harrison brothers, and probably James Young, as the primary perimeter scorer. From the MSU perspective, a Vaughn commit would cast a pall over any further pursuit of Devin Booker, who I believe is going to choose between UM, MSU, and Florida.





Kansas Naadir Tharpe Tyus Jones In my initial Kansas comments I made it clear that I believe that Tharpe, like Quinn Cook at Duke, will have a solid if not quite star-making junior season. Both point guards have returning back-court and front-court players who should be the first and second options on their respective teams. Neither player oozes NBA potential in terms of measurables or athleticism, and I firmly believe that Tharpe (and Cook) will return for the senior seasons poised for a star turn. Both head coaches would love to see these junior oint guards become stars this coming season so that they can go to the NBA to make room for Jones (in Cook's case) or for either Jones or Mudiay (in Tharpe's case). I believe neither will take that big step, and that both coaches will settle for a second-tier point guard to groom for future seasons.

Kansas Perry Ellis & Jamari Traylor Kevon Looney I doubt very much that Kevon Looney is a top priority for Bill Self, but he certainly would fit well in the Kansas program. However, for that to happen either Perry Ellis, Jamari Traylor, or both, would need to declare for the NBA draft. While I think both probably have late-first, early-second potential, the somewhat surprising commitment of Andrew Wiggins, paired with the commitments of other wing and front court players guarantee that neither player will have nearly as much of a percentage of the spotlight as they might have previously been predicited to have had going into the season. My guess is that Perry Ellis will end up as the 2nd or 3rd leading scorer, while Traylor will become a hustling/physical back-up PF. Wiggins, Selden, and maybe Rio Adams, will be the big-time players on this team is my guess, and I strongly believe that both Ellis and Traylor will return for another year at the Phog, all-but guaranteeing that Kevon Looney looks elsewhere. If either blows up this year then this recruiting story may change...but I doubt that will happen.

Kansas Joel Embiid Jahlil Okafor Embiid is a guy I am very keen to watch, he has all of the hallmarks of a one-and-done guy based on his measureables; however, what is yet to be seen is his ability to contribute and be productive at a high-level at the college level. I would not be surprised if he moved ahead of Tarik Black (memphis graduate transfer) into the starting line-up, but I am not sure how productive he will be in terms of point production, rebounds, and blocks. If he is solid he may be draftable based on potential alone, but Bill Self has this neat habit of getting his potentially draft-able big guys who had solid, but not spectacular, season to return for another year. That is my guess with Embiid, especially now that Tarik Black will be playing for at least half of every game. It is very hard for an NBA exec to draft a big man based on 15 min/game, even if he is an agile and athletic 7'2" tall...If Embiid dominates, then Okafor comes into play very quickly, but if, as I predict, he is only OK, then Okafor becomes a distant memory for KU, something MSU fans will be crossing their fingers for.

Kansas Brannen Greene & Wayne Selden Justise Winslow Brannen Greene and Wayne Selden are guys that I think will become absolute stars on the college level. MSU fans have to hope that at least one of them becomes a HUGE star THIS year, along with Andrew Wiggins. Brannen Greene comes in as an NBA-sized 2-guard (6'6"), and Selden comes in as a small, but powerful, athletic, and dynamic 3 (6'5"). If Brannen Greene (or Selden) can usurp Rio Adams's returner-hold on the starting 2, then there is a slight possibility that one of these guys joins Andrew Wiggins in the NBA draft next summer. If that happens the Justise Winslow will definitely become a possibility. With the modern recruits' affinity for going to schools that other great players who play thier position recently attended, Winslow might consider KU for Wiggins' commitment alone. But because he might have a great shot at starting at the wing for Kansas if either of these guys blows up, KU becomes a much more enticing proposition, not to mention it is about 500 miles closer to Houston, TX than Durham, NC...MSU fans ideal situation would be Winslow ending up at either KU or UCLA (where he just visited recently), because KU is not one of the biggest factors in the Tyus Jones/Jahlil Okafor recruitments. If Selden or Greene play a major role for KU this year along with Wiggins MSU fans should be excited, from a recruiting standpoint.





Baylor Ricardo Gathers Leron Black & Cliff Alexander Ricardo Gathers will be the 3rd man in the 3-headed monster that is the Baylor frontcourt this coming season. It is possible that Rico will go pro--he has the body, the athleticism, the power--but, at the same time he has NONE of the skill of an NBA big man (especially not those that he would compete against in the draft, including his own teammates). My guess is that he returns to Baylor, poised to be one of their big stars. If that happens then look for Cliff Alexander to definitely look elsewhere (if he was ever really considering Baylor). This may also push Leron Black away from Baylor, but I do not think that Black and Gathers are mutually exclusive players, especially not in Scott Drew's let's just put the best guys we can recruit on the court, give them jerseys and a ball, and hope they win games method of coaching... if Gathers dominates and looks poised to go pro, then Alexander potentially comes more into play.

Baylor Leron Black Cliff Alexander Leron Black committed to Baylor last year, only to decommit. He is from Memphis, TN, and has Baylor, UCONN, Florida, Illinios, NC State, OSU, and Tennessee on his list. I have no definite insight on where he is leaning; however, it should be noted that his HS and AAU teammate, PG Chris Chiozza just committed to Florida. I think that Baylor is still in play, and that is a good thing for MSU. We want Black to go to either Baylor, Illinois, or OSU. A commitment at any of these three would take them off of Cliff's radar I would imagine.

Baylor Ishmail Wainright Justise Winslow Ishmail Wainright is a SF committed to Baylor who will be a freshman this year. There is no way that he will be a one-and-done player, but at the same time, there is no way that his presence will scare away Justise Winslow. Baylor must be considered among the first or second tier of schools he is looking at, and MSU fans can only hope that Winslow commits to Baylor. Even though they would definitely have the space to take both Tyus Jones and Jahlil Okafor, I would think that it would be a major coup if those two "joined" Winslow in Waco if that is where the small forward ends up.

Baylor Kenny Cherry Tyus Jones Kenny Cherry is a JuCo guard, looking to step into Pierre Jackson's vacant PG spot. I have no intel on this player whatsoever, but clearly, if he becomes a star (as Jackson did) Tyus Jones would be much less likely to join the Bears. MSU fans should be pulling for Cherry to succeed.

Baylor Michael Dixon (Kenny Cherry and Tyus Jones) Michael Dixon (who got kicked out of Missouri after multiple alleged sexual misadventures) may end up transferring to Baylor. If he does he will try to get a waiver from the NCAA to play immediately this coming season, if he does not and has to sit out a year then that would cast immediate and strong doubt over the possibility of any Tyus Jones commitment. Dixon was a very good PG at Missouri, often their best player despite Phil Pressy's command on the starting spot. If Dixon lands at Baylor it would be a good thing for MSU--even if he plays immediately that merely gives Cherry a guaranteed year of spotlight his senior year, while Jones would clearly come in as the favorite in either situation, the muddier the waters are for MSU the better.

Baylor Justise Winslow Tyus Jones & Jahlil Okafor As explained previously, Winslow is looking to partner with Jones and Okafor at Duke, which I view as a real possibility. But if he were to commit early to Baylor, he might put Baylor into a great position to continue functionally and hopefully recruiting the duo. MSU fans would ideally like for Winslow to end up at UCLA, followed by Kansas, then Florida, and only then Baylor. An early commitment by Winslow to Baylor (or Duke) surely puts MSU's chances with the duo in further jeopardy.

Baylor Khadeem Lattin & Myles Turner Jahlil Okafor Khadeem Lattin and Myles Turner both fill in the second tier of bigs that Baylor are pursuing, and an early commitment by one or both of these two would, again, cloud the frontcourt picture, and push Jahlil Okafor and Cliff Alexander further away from a commitment. Ideally for MSU, one or both of these two sign/commit to Baylor as soon as possible.





Ohio State Shannon Scott Tyus Jones Where Naadir Tharpe and Quinn Cook, in my projections, present a potential roadblock to Tyus Jones filling a team's starting PG spot as returning starters, Shannon Scott mirrors Travis Trice: career back-ups leading into their senior years, both would do admirably as a senior starter, but both would probably best serve their teams as back-up to Tyus Jones. Shannon Scott is further along in his development and I think will be very strong this coming year (I doubt MSU is gifted any more game-altering mistakes from Shannon Scott...). I think Tyus Jones would clearly come in and start over Scott, so from an MSU perspective, we should hope that the gap between the two players narrows as much as possible if MSU is going to see Tyus Jones look away from OSU.

Ohio State Amir Williams Jahlil Okafor Amir Williams...this guy should be really good, but just is not. That being said, this coming season his role and his expected out-put will really increase. If he can demonstrate any real competnecy then, again the Center position becomes much less obviously Okafor's. Yes, Okafor would come in and play, but Williams would also play a ton. And his competent presence alone would probably push Okafor away from OSU. Williams is in the same position that Plumlee is for Duke, the hope for MSU fans is that both Plumlee and Williams really see their games take off this coming year.

Ohio State Keita Bates Diop Cliff Alexander Keita Bates Diop, a stud PF comit for this coming year should have the power-forward position locked up for the next 3-4 years (I cannot envision him leaving for the NBA before his junior season), which intrinsically should mean that Cliff Alexander does not put OSU in his top choices. The fact that Keita Bates Diop will probably have a lot of success this coming year, looking like a star moving into his sophomore campaign will guarantee it.

Ohio State Jae'Sean Tate & Kameron Williams D'Angelo Russell Jae'Sean Tate & Kameron Williams, are the two wing players committed over the next two years already, which, as far as I can tell, should, from a minutes standpoint alone, put OSU on the outside looking in for D'Angelo Russell. Russell is a guy that has recent MSU interest, and might be a great fit for MSU--he is from Louisville, KY but is not being pursued by UK or heavily by Louisville. If MSU picks up interest the main competition may be Florida, Missouri, Memphis, UNC, and Arizona. I think that MSU coaches are feeling him out as a possible secondary target if Devin Booker goes elsewhere.



