Beto O'Rourke to take on Ted Cruz in 2018

WASHINGTON - U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, a Democrat and ex-punk rocker who pulled an upset to win his House seat six years ago, plans to declare his candidacy on Friday for the Senate seat held by Ted Cruz, according to Democratic sources in Texas.

O'Rourke's fledgling campaign scheduled an announcement on Friday in El Paso, his hometown. He has traveled around Texas over the last three months making contacts, barely concealing his political plans.

"I'm very moved to do it," O'Rourke, 44, said in an interview earlier this month, adding that he had reached an "emotional decision" about the race.

Campaign aides declined to confirm he is entering the 2018 race.

U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro, D-San Antonio, is the only other high-profile Democrat to express interest in taking on Cruz. Castro, 42, has climbed the House ranks more swiftly than O'Rourke and may see himself as having more to lose. He is expected to announce his decision next month.

O'Rourke is a three-term congressman and a proponent of term limits. He is not widely known but has worked to correct that. After a snowstorm canceled flights earlier this month, he drew national media attention and thousands of live streaming followers with a 1,600-mile "bipartisan road trip" from San Antonio to Washington with U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, R-Helotes.

Uphill fight

For any Democrat, a challenge of Cruz is expected to be decidedly uphill given the Texas senator's political success and national fundraising. Cruz, 46, is serving in his initial term in the Senate, but last year was a finalist in the GOP presidential primaries, emerging as the last contestant vanquished by Donald Trump.

A Cruz-O'Rourke race would offer a stark ideological contrast: a staunch conservative and self-described Constitutionalist versus an unabashed liberal who supports recreational marijuana use.

Cruz is a lawyer; O'Rourke is a businessman in the technology industry and a musician who played in three punk rock bands during and after his college years at Columbia University.

A contest between Cruz and O'Rourke also would present dramatic differences on border issues. Cruz has supported Trump's hard-edged immigration policies. O'Rourke, a fluent Spanish-speaker, has positioned himself as a friend of immigrants and trumpets the economic and cultural benefits of being closely allied with Mexico.

"Beto brings a fresh approach, a new face, and is someone who is able to connect with Texans across the board," said Matt Angle, executive director of the Lone Star Project, an organization that promotes Democrats in Texas.

Angle acknowledged that Democrats have their work cut out for them in trying to unseat Cruz, a tea party-backed conservative who built up a national conservative following during his 2016 run for the GOP presidential nomination.

"The challenge will be for Beto or anyone else running in a Senate race against Cruz to have the resources and the megaphone big enough to tell their story statewide," Angle said.

Given Cruz's profile as a national conservative leader, the race is certain to attract nationwide attention and money.

The Cruz campaign declined comment Wednesday, but campaign manager Jeff Roe weighed in on Twitter Wednesday to attack both Castro and O'Rourke: "Someone please tell @JoaquinCastrotx that he's no longer a rising star so stop acting like one. Muscled out by Beto? Pathetic display."

O'Rourke, unlike Castro, has yet to develop much of a national profile, and remains politically undefined for most Texas voters,

if they have even heard of him. Though seen as a liberal Democrat in Republican circles, he is well-liked on both sides of the aisle.

"I like Beto O'Rourke," said Texas U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate and the former chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "He's somebody I've worked with and continue to work with. But if he thinks that he can beat Ted Cruz, I think he's sadly mistaken."

Cornyn has never had a warm relationship with Cruz, who failed to endorse him in his last primary run.

When O'Rourke took his live-streamed road trip with Hurd, Cornyn was one of the first to call in to their live "show."

Though Cornyn has not specifically endorsed Cruz in 2018, he noted that history does not favor Texas Democrats, who last won a statewide election in 1994.

Other Republicans assessed his chances in bleaker terms.

"This is a political suicide mission," said Austin GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak. "He may think Cruz is vulnerable. But I don't see any sign of that."

Cruz missteps

Some Democrats saw Cruz's star power diminish during his presidential primary loss to Trump, whom he initially refused to endorse. Cruz came in for sharp criticism from Texas delegates at the National Republican Convention, but came back into the fold later, urging conservatives to get behind the Republican ticket.

Last week, Cruz was among the hard-right conservatives who helped block Obamacare replacement legislation favored by the White House and GOP leaders. Cruz said the bill did not go far enough. Amid the GOP divisions, some Democrats now sense a new opening, however far off 2018 might be.

"I think Ted Cruz has been taking on water since the day he announced for president," said Angle who, like many Democrats, accuses Cruz of tending more to his national conservative following than to Texas. "He's barely a senator."

Cruz's bid for the White House, however, helped him build a formidable grass-roots and fundraising base that would be hard for O'Rourke or any other Texas Democrat to replicate.

Cruz ended 2016 with a $4.2 million war chest, more than 10 times the $398,700 that O'Rourke's congressional campaign had in the bank.

Compounding O'Rourke's fundraising challenge is his unfamiliarity to Texas voters outside his El Paso district.

O'Rourke has sought to overcome that deficit through a series of rallies and meetings around the state. His biggest assist, however, may come from Cruz himself.

As a self-styled conservative movement leader, Cruz has established himself as a favorite target for the left.

"I can see O'Rourke using that to raise money online" from small-dollar donors, said Geoffrey Skelley, an analyst at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

Another bright spot for O'Rourke, Skelley said, was Hillary Clinton's nine-point loss to Trump in Texas, the smallest statewide margin since the 1996 presidential election.

Still, Skelley predicted, "it's going to be a tough haul for Democrats to actually win Texas. … You would need the president to be very unpopular to make it conceivably, really, truly competitive."

With Democrats defending 25 senate seats next year - 10 of them in states Trump won - it will be hard for any Texas Democrat to attract big-dollar national contributors, whose resources may be needed elsewhere.

Some speculate O'Rourke could be playing the long game.

"What if he loses but puts in a good showing, gives Ted Cruz a run for his money?" Skelley said.

"Let's say the demographics of the state keep shifting. Who's to say a few years down the road, O'Rourke couldn't run again and win?"

Surprise win in 2012

Robert Francis O'Rourke - he has been called Beto since childhood - secured his far West Texas seat with a surprise win in his 2012 Democratic primary challenge of Silvestre Reyes, an eight-term incumbent endorsed by Barack Obama and Bill Clinton.

O'Rourke seldom is regarded as a party Democrat, a potential obstacle especially in a primary.

He often proclaims independence and seldom has been in the forefront of Texas leaders seeking to rebuild the state's lagging Democratic Party.

In a House leadership fight for the new Congress, O'Rourke rejected Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., in favor of Tim Ryan, D-Ohio.

Pelosi won easily.

O'Rourke has been in the minority for his House career with little opportunity to get his name attached to splashy legislation.

As a member of the Veterans Affairs and Armed Services committees, he has devoted much of his energy to veterans' issues, especially the mental health of those who have served.

On Wednesday, the day his Senate ambition was revealed, O'Rourke introduced a bill calling for a war tax for every American-authorized use of military force to establish trust funds for compensating veterans.

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