Martha T. Moore

USAToday

A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll shows just how tough Democrats have it in the fight to keep control of the U.S. Senate: Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor, running for re-election in a state President Obama lost, is all tied up with GOP challenger Tom Cotton. Pryor leads Republican Cotton by just 2 points: 45% to 43%, with 7% undecided — well within the margin of error for the survey released Wednesday.

The race for Arkansas governor is just as tight. Two former congressmen are vying for the open seat, and Republican Asa Hutchinson has a slight edge over Democrat Mike Ross, 43% to 41%, with 11% undecided.

Health care is a top issue for Arkansas voters, according to the poll, with one-fifth of voters listing it as a major concern. The same amount of voters cite jobs as their biggest issue. But health care appears to be helping Pryor, despite predictions that the law called Obamacare would be a drag on Democrats.

Pryor, who is seeking a third term in the Senate, voted in favor of the Affordable Care Act, and Arkansas is a state that has expanded Medicaid coverage as a result of the health care law. He took the unusual step of referring to the health care law in an ad — notably, the first ad including his father, former governor and senator David Pryor.

Among voters who consider health care their top issue, Pryor leads Cotton 50%-39%. Voters are focused on the issue because of the volume of political ads mentioning Obamacare and entitlement programs like Medicare, says David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "People are responding to the signal that they're getting in terms of the debates and the political ads they're seeing on TV.''

Connie Barden, a retired manufacturing employee in Greers Ferry, isn't a fan of Obamacare: Her insurance plan was canceled because it did not comply with requirements of the law, and she was without coverage for several months before she became eligible for Medicare. Her decision to vote for Pryor, however, shows the advantage of an incumbent: His office cut the waiting time for her husband to see a VA doctor from two months to two weeks. "He's a candidate who works for Arkansas,'' Barden says. "He works for the veterans, I don't care what the commercials say.''

Tom Myers, a municipal employee in Siloam Springs, doesn't like Obamacare either and plans to vote for Cotton as a result. His health plan deductible has almost tripled, he said. " They said it wasn't going to affect the middle class and that's not true.''

Pryor's job approval rating is only slightly ahead of Obama's, 38% to 34% — another reason Pryor is a top target for Republicans looking to win six additional seats in the Senate to take majority control.

Susan Kontir, a nurse from Fort Smith, hasn't firmly decided who to vote for in the Senate race, though she is leaning toward Cotton for a simple reason. "I'm basically against every incumbent in Congress,'' she says. "If they've been there longer than one or two terms, get out, goodbye.''

Pryor's lead is slightly larger among independents: 43% to 39%. But those independents are much more likely to support Hutchinson, the Republican, in the governor's race: 43% to 33%, with 18% undecided.

During three terms in Congress, Hutchinson served as one of the prosecutors during the impeachment trial of Arkansas' favorite son, president Bill Clinton — the last Democrat to win the state in a presidential election. Hutchinson first ran for governor in 2006 but lost to Democrat Mike Beebe, who is now leaving office after two terms.

Ross opposed the Affordable Care Act and was one of three House Democrats to join Republicans in voting to repeal it. But he supports Arkansas' expansion of Medicaid, as allowed under the law.