DESPITE the screening and testing that takes interviewers to within an inch of a budding teenager’s life, and the countless hours of watching those same kids chase an oval ball, AFL recruiting is not massively closer to an exact science than it was back in the fledgling days of the draft.

When players such as Wron Wron Woodside’s Anthony Banik and Richard “The Flounder” Lounder of Central District were plucked from relative obscurity to become household names as number one picks. That neither provided the desired output was later put down to recruiting being in its infancy.

And it was, with most teams in the 1980s relying on the judgment of one person who would get tip-offs from willing want-to-be recruiters across the land. Now a club’s recruiting staff can number 20 when part-timers are included.

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But will they get it right when this year’s national draft is held on the Gold Coast on Thursday, November 27? Will someone see something in a late developing kid like Nat Fyfe who ended up going at Pick 20 in 2009?

History says no because it is far easier to select a teenager who will go on to play 150-200 games than to pick that elusive champion.

Fyfe is headed in that direction while Dane Swan (58), Sam Mitchell (36), Patrick Dangerfield (7), Joel Selwood (7), Lance Franklin (5) and Scott Pendlebury (5) are already in that bracket. But few number 1s in the period between 2001-2010 can lay claim to that tag, with Luke Hodge the obvious selection.

Today more research than ever before goes into who will become the number 1 player in each draft, with Tom Boyd, Lachie Whitfield, Jon Patton and David Swallow the last four to occupy a tag that history says is something of a poisoned chalice.

media_camera Carlton selected Bryce Gibbs with its first pick in 2006.

Boyd now gets his chance in a new environment, one closer to home, although his $1 million per season price tag will ensure the scrutiny will only intensify, particularly as he is returning to the heart of football.

Go back for 10 years from 2010 and sit in judgment of the top three players based on their performances since, and where they were drafted. While selecting that top three is subjective, very rarely will the number one, two or three pick remain in that slot.

This year we even read that St Kilda would be just as happy to trade the number one pick if the right deal was available, in their case extra picks within the top 20. But trading it also removes the burden of having to be proven correct in the eyes of a footballing public that love to kick the stuffing out of any number one who doesn’t measure up.

I would love to ask 2008 number one Jack Watts in 10 years time would he have rather slipped into the draft at number 10? Wouldn’t mind betting right now what the answer would be.

ANDO’S TOP THREE (PLUS ACTUAL NUMBER ONE)

2010: Dyson Heppell (drafted at 8) Tom Lynch (11) Jack Darling (26). No. 1 David Swallow, who this year won Gold Coast’s best and fairest.

2009: Nat Fyfe (20) Jack Gunston (29) Daniel Talia (13). No. 1 Tom Scully.

2008: Dayne Beams (29) Steele Sidebottom (11) Michael Hurley (5). No. 1 Jack Watts.

2007: Patrick Dangerfield (10) Harry Taylor (17) Trent Cotchin (2). No. 1 Matthew Kreuzer

2006: Joel Selwood (7) Travis Boak (5) Robbie Gray (55). No. 1 Bryce Gibbs

2005: Scott Pendlebury (5) Marc Murphy (1) Josh Kennedy (WC, 4).

2004: Lance Franklin (5) Jarryd Roughead (2) Jordan Lewis (7). No. 1 Brett Deledio

2003: David Mundy (19) Adam Cooney (1) Sam Fisher (55).

2002: Brendon Goddard (1) Daniel Wells (2) Andrew Mackie (7).

2001: Chris Judd (3) Luke Hodge (1) Dane Swan (58).

*Doesn’t include father-son selections, such as Gary Ablett jnr.

TRY finding an industry covered in more bulldust than the AFL over these past two weeks.

It begins with clubs assessing the playing abilities of an individual who may be on the market.

Of the same midfielder I heard descriptions ranging from ball magnet, elite endurance, clearance king and contested ball general to slow, poor decision maker, ordinary disposal efficiency and average bloke.

Then we have those who take the moral high ground regarding contracts, when loyalty, while still seen in the cases of players such as Bryce Gibbs and Tom Lonergan in 2014, basically belongs to a bygone era.

APART from major events, athletics gets a bum rap in Australia in comparison to many European countries.

It has a small season and as such a restricted window but right now there are some serious talents coming through the ranks.

Two are high jumper Joel Baden (PB 2.23cm) and 400m runner Sam Reiser (46.9sec), who both competed on Saturday at Lakeside Oval in the annual APS sports.

If they remain injury free, maintain their desire and can learn to actually enjoy the pain and boredom that can go with gruelling training sessions, then both are genuine Olympians of the future.