Jason Noble

jnoble2@dmreg.com

© COPYRIGHT 2016, DES MOINES REGISTER AND TRIBUNE COMPANY

Donald Trump leads the presidential race in the swing state of Iowa, lifted by voters’ widespread distrust of Hillary Clinton and pessimism about the nation's direction.

The Republican nominee tops his Democratic rival by 4 percentage points in the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, defying a surge in support for Clinton seen nationally and in other battleground states since the candidates’ first debate, on Sept. 26.

Interviewing for the Iowa Poll concluded before the revelation Friday of a recorded conversation in 2005 in which Trump made lewd comments about kissing and groping women — a development that prompted sharp criticism from top Republicans.

In the new poll, Trump is the first choice for 43 percent of likely voters, compared with 39 percent who back Clinton. Six percent say they’re voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2 percent favor Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

Election forecasters generally see Iowa as critical to Trump's path to the presidency, while Clinton could reach the White House without winning the Hawkeye State.

Driving Trump’s success is a deep dislike for Clinton among Republicans and independents, and a sense among likely Iowa voters that he would deliver better results on several major issues confronting the country.

“Hillary Clinton has real problems in the state of Iowa,” national elections forecaster Harry Enten said.

MORE:

Enten, who examines political polling for the news site FiveThirtyEight.com, cautioned that Clinton could still win the state but said the Iowa Poll results prove the effectiveness of Trump’s relentless hammering on an opponent he calls “Crooked Hillary."

“His message is working there,” Enten said. “It’s very clear that Iowa voters have a big beef with Hillary Clinton — more so than voters nationally.”

Indeed, trust concerns — both general and specific — are a major drag for Clinton here. Fifty-two percent of respondents say questions about her trustworthiness bother them a lot, and the numbers are similar for three specific instances in which Clinton’s honesty has been challenged.

Fifty-one percent of respondents are bothered a lot by donations to the Clinton Foundation from foreign governments during Clinton's term as secretary of state; 52 percent by her handling of the terrorist attack on a diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya; and 53 percent by her handling of her private email as secretary.

Poll respondent Richard Sternberg said it was concern over Clinton’s trustworthiness and conduct in the email and Benghazi controversies that led him to cast a reluctant vote for Trump. Even though he recognizes Clinton as more prepared to be president than Trump, the retired guidance counselor from Roland said his concerns about her honesty disqualify her.

“It’s almost a choice between a crook or a clown,” Sternberg said. “I am fairly sure in what we’re getting with Hillary, and so I’m willing to take a risk with Trump. And I do think it is a risk.”

Trump's temperament a liability

For Trump, meanwhile, poll respondents voice greater concerns about issues related to his temperament than his behavior as a businessman and philanthropist.

Fifty-three percent of respondents say they’re bothered a lot by what has been seen as Trump’s mocking of a reporter’s physical disability, and 48 percent are bothered by his attitude toward women and comments about former Miss Universe Alicia Machado. Machado has accused Trump of mocking her weight gain after she was crowned — calling her "Miss Piggy" and bringing in journalists to watch her work out.

For poll respondent Lyssa Rasmussen, Trump’s rhetoric is a deal-breaker. The 24-year-old from Polk City, who works at an agency serving people with intellectual, developmental and mental health disabilities, said she simply can’t support a candidate who would disparage them.

“He’s only going to do wrong for this country,” she said. “He doesn’t treat anyone with any respect. He’ll do America wrong because he’s so prejudiced against women and people with disabilities and pretty much anyone that’s not him.”

Just 31 percent of poll respondents, by contrast, indicate strong concern about the suspension of Trump Foundation fundraising and spending in New York because it had failed to properly register with the state. Only 39 percent say they’re bothered a lot by Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns and recent revelations that he may have legally owed no federal income taxes for years.

VIDEOS: Trump, Pence speeches in Iowa

Forty-five percent of all voters — and 48 percent of independents — say the questions raised about Trump’s taxes don’t bother them at all.

Iowa voters also see Trump as the better choice for handling a range of issues.

Fifty-three percent say Trump would do a better job of fixing the economy, compared with 40 percent who choose Clinton. Pluralities also peg Trump as doing a better job than Clinton on combating Islamic terrorism, fixing the immigration system and determining tax policy.

But Iowans are evenly divided on one of the things Trump brags about often: his ability as a negotiator. Respondents split 46-46 on whether Clinton or Trump would be better at negotiating favorable trade deals.

Only when it comes to handling relations with other countries does a majority see Clinton as the better option. Sixty percent say she’d do a better job, compared with 34 percent who say Trump would.

VIDEOS: Clinton, Kaine speeches in Iowa

The poll of 800 Iowa adults was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines on Oct. 3-6 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Questions asked of the 642 likely voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

The Iowa Poll results come after the first presidential debate and amid a national polling surge for Clinton. But its results showing a Trump lead align with other polling here in September. A Real Clear Politics polling average compiled shortly before the Iowa Poll was released gave Trump a 5 percentage point lead here.

Outlook 'tough' for Clinton

Besides reflecting distrust for Clinton, Trump’s advantage in the state also represents an erosion of support for Democratic candidates that was evident even in 2014, Enten said.

“Regardless of whether or not there’s a trend in her direction, it’s very clear that these six electoral votes will be tough for her,” Enten said. “If Donald Trump is to win a state that Mitt Romney didn’t win in 2012, Iowa is right on the top of that list.”

Trump does best with younger voters, protestants, born-again Christians, rural voters and residents of the heavily conservative 4th Congressional District, in western Iowa.

He’s 8 percentage points ahead of Clinton among voters under 55, a figure that holds even for voters under 35.

He also leads Clinton 46 percent to 32 percent among male voters, while Clinton holds a narrower edge among women, 46 to 41. And among self-identified independents, he leads 42 percent to 31 percent.

David Moore, a 32-year-old independent from Des Moines, compared conventional politics to professional wrestling, where the conflicts are staged and the drama manufactured. The way Trump ignores and upends political convention, he said, makes him a “people’s champion.”

Moore, a welder and mechanic who was changing the oil in a car when contacted by The Des Moines Register, recalled a speech from earlier this year in which Trump “came out and dropped the F bomb three times.”

“I thought it was the coolest thing I ever saw,” he said. “It just sounded so awesome to hear somebody of his status say those words and just speak what he felt was the truth.”

Trump is also finding success among new and marginal voters in Iowa’s electorate. The candidates are virtually tied among voters who have cast ballots in most general elections — Trump leads 42 percent to 41 percent. But he has a much wider lead, 47 to 33, among those who are either voting for the first time or have voted irregularly in the past.

That means victory for Trump in Iowa could hinge in part on whether his voter turnout effort is robust enough to ensure that these sometime voters cast ballots this time.

Besides with women, Clinton counts higher support than Trump among voters ages 65 and older, those with a college degree, Catholics, those who identify with no religion, and those living in Iowa’s urban areas or in the 1st Congressional District, which is in eastern Iowa.

Waterloo poll respondent Julie Dorenkamp is voting for Clinton out of a deep disgust for Trump, but also because she appreciates her work on behalf of children, including her role in creating the federal Children’s Health Insurance Program as first lady.

“She was instrumental in getting health care for children," the 58-year-old middle-school secretary said. "She’s instrumental getting help for education. That means something.”

Voters holding their noses

One striking feature in the race is Iowa voters' dissatisfaction with all their options. While narrow majorities of Clinton and Trump backers say they support their candidates on their own merits, antipathy for the other option also drives support for each.

Forty-two percent of Clinton supporters say their vote is more of a vote against Trump than it is a vote for her. Similarly, 46 percent of Trump backers say their support is rooted more firmly in opposition to Clinton than genuine appreciation of him.

So what do supporters like about their candidates?

Among Clinton backers, 52 percent say the main reason for their support is her experience as a politically involved first lady, a U.S. senator and secretary of state. Seventeen percent cite her intelligence, and 11 percent note the respect she enjoys among world leaders.

Just 1 percent say her history-making potential to become the first female president is the main reason for their support.

For Trump supporters, the candidate’s campaign motto alone captures the top reason for their support. Thirty-two percent of respondents say they back Trump because he will “restore what is good about America that has slipped away” — that is, he’ll make America great again. Another 29 percent say they’ll vote for Trump because he’s not a politician.

MORE: Compare how Iowa candidates for U.S. House and Senate stand on the issues

Iowans are widely pessimistic about the direction of the country, with 71 percent saying it’s on the wrong track against just 21 percent who say it’s on the right track. That wrong-track rating is up 6 percentage points since February, and is the highest recorded by an Iowa Poll since September 2008, when the economy was on the brink of collapse.

But even within that wide consensus on the country’s direction, there’s a huge discrepancy between Democrats and Republicans and, especially, Clinton and Trump voters.

Trump supporters see the situation as dire: 92 percent say the country is on the wrong track.

Clinton voters, though, are mostly positive about the country’s direction. Fifty-one percent say it’s on the right track compared to 41 percent who say it’s on the wrong track.

A 48 percent plurality of respondents, meanwhile, say Iowa is on the right track, compared with 39 percent who say it’s on the wrong track — a slightly more positive result than from an Iowa Poll conducted in February.

Also of note is the dispersal of Bernie Sanders’ legion of supporters from last winter’s Iowa caucuses and the lengthy primary process that followed.

Thirty-seven percent of Iowa Poll respondents say they supported Sanders’ bid for the Democratic nomination at one time or another. But with Sanders out of the race and Clinton the nominee, a significant number of those — 27 percent — now say they’re unlikely to vote in November.

And Clinton has not succeeded in locking up a significant slice of one-time Sanders supporters who will cast ballots: 62 percent say they’re backing Clinton, while 20 percent have migrated to Trump.

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 3-6 for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 800 Iowans ages 18 or older, including 642 likely voters in the 2016 general election. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and educational attainment to reflect the general population based on recent census data.

Questions based on the sample of 800 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error. For example, the margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points for answers among likely voters.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.

Chat with our political reporting staff

Have questions about this poll or how things are shaping up in Iowa? Jason Noble, the Register's chief politics reporter, and Kathie Obradovich, the Register's political columnist, will discuss the state of the race and answer your questions in a Facebook Live chat Tuesday at noon. Go to Facebook.com/DesMoinesRegister to join.