Moderates and conservatives are locking in behind Malcolm Turnbull and Peter Dutton, but others have not ruled out putting up their hands in a second spill

This article is more than 2 years old

This article is more than 2 years old

After Malcolm Turnbull’s narrow leadership ballot win over Peter Dutton and a string of resignations, Canberra is bracing for a second leadership ballot – but the contest will not be a straight re-run of the Dutton-Turnbull contest.

The deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop and treasurer Scott Morrison have not ruled out putting their hands up if Turnbull calls another vote or Dutton gets the numbers for a spill.

On Wednesday Morrison denied reports that he was canvassing for votes, but the finance minister Mathias Cormann’s decision to withdraw support from Malcolm Turnbull on Thursday unleashed a search for a compromise candidate.

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There are reasons a third candidate may be needed. If Turnbull does not have sufficient support to fend off Dutton, moderates may want an alternative to keep the former home affairs minister out of the Lodge.

If Dutton proves so unpalatable that Coalition colleagues – such as Nationals MP Darren Chester – threaten to sit on the crossbench, then conservatives may need an alternative too.

On Thursday Turnbull told a press conference in Canberra if a spill motion succeeds in a partyroom meeting on Friday he will “treat that as a vote of no confidence” and will not stand.

So, if a spill motion succeeds we’re likely to see a two-candidate contest with either Morrison or Bishop consolidating the non-Dutton vote to take on the former home affairs minister, or a contest with all three.

If Dutton wins seven more votes than he did on Tuesday, he would have a majority and the presence of a third candidate would do nothing other than split the anti-Dutton vote.

If Dutton falls short of a majority, the order of candidates in the first round of voting will be crucial. The lower-ranked candidate is eliminated from the count, with MPs and senators then asked to choose between the remaining two candidates.

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The 2009 leadership contest is instructive. After Turnbull’s leadership was destabilised by his plans to help Labor pass the carbon pollution reduction scheme (CPRS), Kevin Andrews moved an unsuccessful spill motion then Abbott resigned prompting a second push.

Three candidates contested the ballot: Turnbull, Abbott and Joe Hockey. Hockey offered Liberal colleagues a conscience vote on the CPRS whereas Abbott promised hard opposition to it.

Although Hockey was considered a popular option as measured by opinion polls, he unexpectedly fell just short of Turnbull in the first round of voting (Abbott won 35 votes, Turnbull 26 and Hockey 23). After Hockey was eliminated, Turnbull lost to Abbott, 41 votes to 42.

Ultimately, Hockey failed because his third way didn’t solve the Liberals’ emissions trading problem. He couldn’t appeal to Abbott supporters who wanted to kill the CPRS outright and supporters of the CPRS stuck to the incumbent Turnbull in sufficient numbers to block Hockeys’ run.

On Wednesday Turnbull supporter told Guardian Australia a compromise candidate is unlikely to fare any better against Dutton than Turnbull would.

“I don’t think the Queenslanders or conservatives would be more likely to go for either [Julie Bishop or Scott Morrison],” the MP said. “Neither would be a circuit-breaker.

“Tony Abbott wouldn’t support either,” the MP said, citing the fact that Bishop supported Turnbull in his successful challenge in September 2015 and Morrison ran dead by not whipping his votes for Abbott, which harmed his standing among conservatives.

One Dutton supporter said they didn’t think that Bishop or Morrison stand a chance because conservatives “think [Dutton] would be the best option to take the fight up to Bill Shorten”, even suggesting Labor is scared of the former home affairs minister.

The MP said they did not regard Chester’s threat as credible. “He can do what he wants, he’s not in the Liberal party room,” the MP said.

The crucial question for Bishop and Morrison: is there any reason to think they’d fare better than Turnbull against Dutton?