Super Tuesday 2020 Primary Preview, Part 4: Texas

Tomorrow is Super Tuesday in the Presidential race, but it is also both the first and biggest downballot general election primary day of the year, and we’re celebrating all week with a 4-part preview series. 5 states comprising over a quarter of the country’s population – Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, and Texas – are going to congressional and state primary polls. Poll closing times are as follows in ET: (bold means a state has regular downballot primary races in addition to the Presidential contest)

7 – VT, VA || 7:30 – NC || 8 – AL, ME, MA, OK, TN, TX || 8:30 – AR || 9 – MN|| 10 – CO, UT || 11 – CA (no results Tues night)

Part 1 covering Alabama, Arkansas, and California local races is HERE, part 2 covering North Carolina is HERE, and part 3 covering California House races is HERE. Today we wrap things up with the Lone Star State.

Flip over the fold for the full previews!

TX-Sen (R, D): Both sides have primaries for the Senate seat, though only the Dem side is particularly competitive.

John Cornyn

Incumbent John Cornyn (R) is seeking a fourth term. Though Texas Republicans got a wake-up-call two years ago when Sen. Ted Cruz (R) was held to a narrower-than-expected 3-point margin by then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D), Cornyn seems likely to be in a better position this year. Unlike Cruz, who is a byword for antiestablishment ideological conservatism and has perhaps one of the most polarizing styles of any pol, Cornyn is a mainstream establishment conservative and member of GOP leadership. A judge in his early career, he has generally focused on justice system issues in his Senate tenure. Unsurprisingly, Cornyn is among the best-funded members of the Senate with an 8-figure warchest. But unlike in 2014 when he got an essential free pass, Texas’s leftward trend means Democrats have shown some enthusiasm for seriously challenging Cornyn this year.

Cornyn does have four primary challengers, one of whom is at least somewhat notable in businessman and WNBA team owner Mark Yancey (R). Yancey is a wealthy financial executive who also owns the WNBA’s Dallas Wings – but he has not used his wealth to self-fund, nor has he fundraised seriously. Thus, he is not likely to be any kind of serious threat to Cornyn in the primary. Across the aisle, Democrats have five serious candidates and a runoff is all but guaranteed.

MJ Hegar

2018 TX-31 congressional nominee and veteran MJ Hegar (D) is the national Democratic establishment choice to take on Cornyn, and has secured the DSCC’s endorsement. Hegar burst on to the scene two years ago with a viral video about her experience as an Air Force chopper pilot in Afghanistan, including being shot down and her receipt of the Distinguished Flying Cross. Though Hegar lost the suburban Austin TX-31 race in spite of the wave, she still acquitted herself well with national Democrats, who recruited her to fall upward here. She is running as an establishment liberal in this race with some bold progressive tendencies, a questionable fit for the statewide general electorate in Texas. However, national Dems have clearly seen Hegar’s compelling biography and charisma as their best chance to make the race competitive. They have given her institutional support and decent fundraising, with respectable (but still paltry for Texas’s immense size) gross hauls of around $4M. Recent polls have shown Hegar breaking out of the pack, taking a clear first but well short of approaching 50%.

Cristina Tzintzun-Ramirez

Nonprofit exec Cristina Tzintzun-Ramirez (D) runs a left-wing labor group focused on immigrants. Tzintzun-Ramirez was born Cristina Costello before adopting her mother’s maiden name as an adult and later appending her then-husband’s surname. The distinction is important because Tzintzun-Ramirez made her surname an issue in the campaign with a bizarre comment that her name was “more Mexican than any Garcia or Lopez”. She is running on a far-left platform, with a particular focus on ultra-woke identity politics. Tzintzun-Ramirez has had significant institutional support from labor groups and the party’s left, including big endorsements from AOC and Rep. Joaquin Castro (D). She has had mediocre but credible fundraising with a total haul of around $1M.

Royce West

State Sen. Royce West (D) has represented a deep-blue district in urban Dallas for nearly three decades. West has a plurality of support from the state-level establishment, including nearly unanimous support from his legislative colleagues. However, national Democrats have largely bypassed his candidacy. He is a mainstream establishment liberal who has nonetheless generally had a good working relationship with Republicans in the State Senate, and touts his effectiveness over his long legislative tenure. With the aid of modest self-funding, West has had mediocre but credible fundraising with hauls of around $1M. He could also benefit from good name recognition in the vote-rich Dallas area.

Amanda Edwards

Ex-Houston councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D) served a term at-large on the council from 2015 to 2019. Edwards is running as a moderate liberal, making her the most moderate serious candidate in the field, and has received buzz for her relative youth at age 38. She has been attacked by her rivals for relatively moderate and incrementalist positions on issues such as healthcare and gun control, which she says are motivated by pragmatism. She has had mediocre but credible fundraising, with hauls of a bit under $1M, and could have name recognition in the vote-rich Houston area. Edwards has a modest amount of institutional support, particularly among Black Democrats and Houston-area institutional forces.

Chris Bell

2000s-era ex-Rep. Chris Bell (D) served a single term representing parts of southern Houston from 2002 to 2004. In 2004, he was defeated in a Democratic primary by now-Rep. Al Green (D) after his seat was redrawn to have a much larger Black percentage. Since then, Bell has been trending towards perennial candidate status, racking up a string of losses: as the Democratic nominee for Governor in 2006, for State Senate in 2008, and for Mayor of Houston in 2015. Bell is trying to sell himself as the most electable candidate in the race, but his record of losses and poor fundraising, with under a half-million, make that a tough lift. He is running on an ideology straddling the line between establishment liberal and bold progressive. Bell has relatively little establishment support, but is still running a credible campaign and could benefit from residual name recognition.

There are also seven minor candidates in the Democratic field, who will probably together take a significant number of scattered votes. Overall, CW is that the race will head to a runoff between Hegar and one of her rivals, with Tzintzun-Ramirez and West having the best chances but Edwards and Bell also in the mix. However, all five candidates are little-known statewide, and low-info vote scattering could propel one of the non-serious candidates to a runoff spot. In the general, any of the Dem candidates will face a tough time raising the large amounts of money needed to get name recognition across the expansive and expensive state, though Beto did show that it can be done. Texas’s leftward trend can not be ignored, and for the first time in decades, there does seem to be a realistic pathway to a statewide Dem win. But given the mediocre nature of the Democratic field and the conservative lean of the state, Cornyn still seems a very strong, though not quite prohibitive, favorite for re-election. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely R.

TX-2 (D): TX-2 is a White-plurality R+11 seat shaped like a backwards question mark, wrapping a narrow arc through the second-ring northern suburbs of Houston from Humble to Spring, and then carving a tail south to upscale urban neighborhoods west of downtown.

Dan Crenshaw

Incumbent Dan Crenshaw (R) is seeking a second term. Crenshaw, who lost an eye from an IED explosion while serving in Iraq, is considered a rising star on the national GOP bench. He has been among the highest profile members of the House in his first term, and a national conservative personality pushing an interventionalist and cultural conservative philosophy. However, as the upscale suburban district has trended left in the Trump era, Crenshaw’s high profile has made him a choice target for national Democrats, and two serious Dems are vying to take him on this year.

Sima Ladjevardian

Attorney Sima Ladjevardian (D) is best-known for her roles as a top campaign staffer to ex-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) during both his 2018 Senate bid and his fizzled Presidential run last year. Though Ladjevardian entered the race late, she has fundraised very well with hauls of over a half-million. She is running as an establishment liberal with some bold progressive tendencies. Ladjevardian has picked up endorsements from O’Rourke and a majority of the local establishment. However, she is facing a serious primary rival.

Elisa Cardnell

Teacher and veteran Elisa Cardnell (D) has fundraised well herself with hauls of over $300K. Cardnell has a compelling biography as an Iraq campaign veteran who became a high school teacher after leaving the service. She is running a bit to Ladjevardian’s left as an establishment friendly bold progressive, and has a sizeable minority of institutional support from the local establishment, particularly from its more progressive elements.

Overall, Ladjevardian looks like a moderate favorite in the primary due to her stronger fundraising and establishment support, but Cardnell is a credible candidate who could pull the upset. There is also a minor candidate in the primary who could send the race to a runoff if Ladjevardian and Cardnell are close. In the general, the race will be at least somewhat competitive due to the credible Democratic candidates and the leftward trend in the district. However, the seat is still GOP-leaning, and Crenshaw’s incumbency and high profile should leave him a fairly strong, though not prohibitive favorite. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely R.

TX-3 (D): TX-3 is an R+13 seat covering most of the outer northern suburbs of Dallas in Collin County, including Plano, Allen, and McKinney.

Van Taylor

Incumbent Van Taylor (R) is seeking a second term. A Harvard-educated Marine veteran who served in Iraq, Taylor is considered a rising star on the state’s GOP bench. He served eight years in the legislature before holding this open seat last cycle without particularly tough opposition in the primary or general. Taylor is known as an antiestablishment-leaning ideological conservative with a fiscal conservative focus. While this outer suburban seat has not trended left as rapidly as more diverse inner suburban areas, GOP margins have still been eroding here, and Democrats have two credible candidates vying to take on Taylor this year.

Sean McCaffity

Attorney Sean McCaffity (D) has generally focused on consumer protection issues. He is running as an establishment liberal and has had good but not great fundraising, with hauls of around $300K. However, McCaffity has little name recognition and does not seem to have particularly strong institutional connections.

Lulu Seikaly

Fellow attorney Lulu Seikaly (D) has received buzz for her youth at age 33. Of Lebanese Christian descent, Sekialy is also running as an establishment liberal, with few real ideological differences with McCaffity. Her fundraising has been mediocre and a bit behind McCaffity’s, but she seems to have stronger establishment support, including backing from labor groups.

Overall, there isn’t a clear favorite in the primary between McCaffity’s somewhat better fundraising and Seikaly’s somewhat better establishment support and identity politics appeal. Either could win or a minor candidate could send them to a runoff. For now, this district is reflexively conservative enough that the race seems just a bit off the edge of the playing field. However, the seat is trending left, and both McCaffity and Seikaly are credible enough to potentially make the race competitive in a good Democratic year. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

TX-7 (R): TX-7 is a White-plurality R+7 seat covering wealthy areas of west-central Houston, from urban to inner suburban areas around Bellaire, west through the Energy Corridor, and including an arm to the north in suburban areas around Jersey Village.

Lizzie Fletcher

Incumbent Lizzie Fletcher (D) is seeking a second term. Fletcher is an establishment liberal who picked up this seat, among the most historically-GOP areas in the entire South, on the 2018 wave. This very upscale district has trended left rapidly in the Trump era, but is still quite purple overall and has a strong GOP heritage. Thus, Republicans are likely to mount a serious challenge to Fletcher this year, and four notable candidates are running.

Wesley Hunt

Veteran Wesley Hunt (R) is the clear front-runner in the primary. Hunt is a West Point graduate and Iraq veteran who now works as an executive at a homebuilding company. He is running as an establishment conservative and has had gangbusters fundraising of nearly $2M. Hunt also has very strong establishment support due to his compelling biography and African-American heritage. Hunt’s biggest endorsement comes from Trump himself, but he also has backing from Cruz and many more local GOP figures as well.

Cindy Siegel

Ex-Bellaire Mayor Cindy Siegel (R) served as Mayor of the small upscale inner suburb of 17K embedded within Houston from 2004 to 2012. An accountant by trade, Siegel is running as an establishment conservative with an emphasis on fiscal issues, and has a significant amount of local establishment support. Siegel has had strong fundraising of around $600K, a little over half of which is self-funded. However, she falls short of Hunt in both fundraising and establishment support.

Maria Espinoza

2016 candidate and nonprofit exec Maria Espinoza (R) ran a campaign four years ago with a largely non-serious antiestablishment challenge to then-Rep. John Culberson (R), taking 18% and third place in the three-way field. She is running as an antiestablishment conservative in this race again as well. Espinoza runs an anti-illegal immigration nonprofit and has significant institutional support from antiestablishment immigration hawks, including endorsements from Texas Agricutlure Commissioner Sid Miller (R) and national anti-immigration figures like Kris Kobach and Tom Tancredo. Espinoza has fundraised little from donors, but has self-funded $200K, enough for good but not great funding overall of around a quarter million.

Businessman Jim Noteware (R) is an executive at a commercial real-estate firm. He is running as an establishment conservative with some moderate tendencies. Noteware’s fundraising has been poor, barely enough to run a credible campaign with minor self-funding. He may draw a significant number of votes and make a runoff a bit more likely, but seems unlikely to be a threat to advance.

There are also two non-serious Republicans in the race. Overall, Hunt’s Trump endorsement makes him the clear favorite in the race, and the question here is likely whether he can win the race in one round or if his rivals will hold him to a runoff. That question seems close to a coin flip. If Hunt is held to a runoff, Siegel is probably more likely to join him in the second round, but Espinoza has a chance to snag the second spot instead. In the general, the leftward trend in the district seems likely to leave Fletcher to start as a slight favorite. However, Republicans are likely to have a credible and well-funded nominee and the general election is likely to be highly competitive. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean D.

TX-9 (D): TX-9 is a narrowly Hispanic-plurality (but due to turnout disparities, effectively Black-dominated) D+29 seat covering most of south-central and southwest Houston, including the diverse middle-class minority areas of Sharpstown and Alief in the southwest and the poor Black-majority area of Sunnyside in the south-central part of the city.

Al Green

Incumbent Al Green (D) (no relation to the singer) is seeking a ninth term. A former judge and official in the NAACP, Green has been notable as one of the most left-wing members of Congress, and has been particularly notable in recent years for being the first member of Congress to seriously push for Trump’s impeachment. Green’s warchest is among the smallest of any House incumbent at just $200K, but he has strong establishment support in the area.

Green has a primary challenge from realtor Melissa Wilson-Williams (D). Wilson-Williams is running to Green’s right as an establishment liberal with moderate tendencies, and is also hitting the incumbent on allegations of sexual harassment (that were later retracted by his accuser). Though Wilson-Williams has self-funded barely enough to run a credible campaign, she has raised essentially nothing from donors. She thus seems unlikely to be a major threat to Green.

Overall it would be a shock if Green did not win the primary easily, and he will obviously cruise in the general election. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

TX-10 (D): TX-10 is an R+9 seat covering a thin slice stretching east-to-west through north-central Austin, a broad swath of rural territory to the east around Brenham, and a bit of Houston’s outer northwest suburbs and exurbs around Tomball.

Mike McCaul

Incumbent Michael McCaul (R) is seeking a ninth term. A former prosecutor, McCaul is among the wealthiest members of Congress, with a 9-figure net worth from his wife’s family, who founded the national radio-station empire Clear Channel (now known as iHeartMedia). Though his ability to self-fund has led him to consider launching bids for statewide office several times, McCaul has thus far remained content to work his way up the committee ladder, rising to become Homeland Security Chair and then Foreign Affairs Ranking member. An establishment conservative, he did not face a tough re-election contest until 2018, when explosive growth of white liberal and minority populations in the Austin part of the seat, coupled with the wave, held him to a shockingly close 4-point victory. Democrats have targeted this seat as a top pickup opportunity this cycle, and three strong candidates are facing off in the primary.

Mike Siegel

2018 nominee Mike Siegel (D) is mounting a second bid against McCaul, and likely has the highest name recognition in the primary field from his prior run. Siegel previously served as Austin’s appointed city attorney, which has given him strong institutional connections. He has arguably a majority of establishment support, including a majority of labor and local elected official endorsements. As in his bid two years ago, Siegel is running as a bold progressive on fiscal and cultural issues, which could be an asset in the Austin-dominated primary electorate but a questionable strategy in a seat that remains conservative overall. He has had good fundraising for this bid, with a half-million gross, but amazingly that puts him behind both of his rivals in cash.

Shannon Hutcheson

Attorney Shannon Hutcheson (D) owns her own law firm and is one of the Austin area’s most prominent attorneys. She is the best-funded candidate in the primary field, with hauls of $1.2M gross, aided by a bit over a quarter-million in self-funding. She has modest institutional support, including an endorsement from Emily’s List. Hutcheson is running as a moderate liberal, which seems likely to make her the strongest general election candidate, but has left room to her left in the primary. Her rivals have launched particularly stinging attacks against Hutcheson, focusing on several donations she has made to Republican judges as well as legal work on behalf of corporate clients.

Pritesh Gandhi

Physician Pritesh Gandhi (D) has a compelling biography as a Fulbright Scholar who now works as a primary-care doctor in a poor community. He has had very strong fundraising, with his hauls of over $800K without self-funding topping the field in donor contributions. Gandhi is running as a bold progressive with a social progressive emphasis, though not quite as left-wing as Siegel. His establishment support is modest, though he does have support from the national liberal STEM group 314 Action, which has spent significantly on his behalf attacking Hutcheson. He also has an endorsement from the main paper for the primary-vote-rich Austin part of the district, the Austin American-Statesman.

Overall, with three roughly equally-matched candidates, a primary runoff seems likely. There is no clear favorite between Hutcheson’s financial advantage, Siegel’s name recognition and ideological appeal, and Gandhi’s biography. Basically any two candidates could advance and there is maybe a slight chance of any of the three catching enough fire to win outright. The general election is likely to be highly competitive due to the strong leftward trend in the seat. However, the seat still leans conservative overall and the inelastic rural and exurban portions mean that Trump is more likely than not to carry it. McCaul is also an inoffensive incumbent who will have limitless resources. Thus, McCaul likely starts the general as a moderate favorite in a competitive race. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean R.

TX-11 (R): TX-11 is an R+32 district covering the Permian Basin around Midland and Odessa, the San Angelo area, and a broad rural swath of the center of the state around Brownwood. The seat is open as incumbent Mike Conaway (R) is retiring.

August Pfluger

Trump White House aide August Pflueger (R) is an Air Force Academy graduate who had a 20-year career as a fighter pilot before becoming a staffer on Trump’s National Security Council. Pfluger’s close Trump ties landed him the President’s endorsement a few weeks ago, but that endorsement was merely the cherry on top of what was already a front-running campaign. Pfluger has raised an impressive $1.4M without self-funding, nearly double that of all his rivals combined. Pfluger has also taken arguably a plurality of establishment support, including strong support from agriculture interests. He is running as an establishment conservative.

J. Ross Lacy

Midland councilman J. Ross Lacy (R) served six years on the city council in the district’s largest city. Lacy is a businessman who runs multiple businesses in the oil and financial industries. However, he has not self-funded more than a modest amount for his bid, and his overall fundraising is good but not great at around a quarter million. Lacy is running as an antiestablishment conservative. He has decent institutional support from those quarters, especially touting an endorsement from firebrand Texas Rep. Louie Gohmert (R).

Brandon Batch

Congressional staffer Brandon Batch (R) has served as a top policy aide to TX-10 Rep. Michael McCaul (R). Batch has received significant buzz for his African American heritage and youth at age 30, as well as a compelling story of resilience after losing both of his parents at a young age. Batch is running as an establishment conservative and has had mediocre to good fundraising of around $200K. He also has a modest amount of establishment support.

JD Faircloth

Ex-Midland Mayor JD Faircloth (R) is a CPA who served on the council in the 80s and as Mayor from 1992 to 1994. Faircloth appears to have largely been out of politics since that time, and it seems unlikely he will retain any real name recognition or connections from his prior political career. He is running as an establishment conservative with an emphasis on fiscal issues, particularly on the national debt. Faircloth’s fundraising has been mediocre to poor, with hauls in the low six-figures thanks to modest self-funding.

Jamie Berryhill

Nonprofit exec Jamie Berryhill (R) is a former businessman who now runs a Christian residential rehab center. Berryhill is attempting to run as the staunchest antiestablishment conservative in the field, and has a modest amount of institutional support form those quarters. Berryhill has been criticized in recent weeks for a foot-in-mouth moment, making a comment comparing open borders to rape. His bigger handicap is that his fundraising has been mediocre to poor, only around $100K with a small amount of self-funding.

There are also five non-serious candidates in the race. Overall, the biggest question is whether Pfluger can wrap the race up in one round, or whether the large field will hold him to a runoff. If a second round is triggered, Lacy and Batch look like the best bets to advance with Pfluger, and there is no clear favorite between the two for the second spot. Faircloth and Berryhill seem longer shots but have slight chances to take the second runoff spot as well. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

TX-12 (R): TX-12 is an R+18 seat covering the upscale west side of Fort Worth, its western suburbs and exurbs, and an arm through suburbs to the northwest around Decatur.

Kay Granger

Incumbent Kay Granger (R) is seeking a thirteenth term. A teacher by trade, Granger began her political career in local office, including a term as a very popular Mayor of Fort Worth in the 1990s. Initially entering local politics as an Independent. Granger was a moderate in her early career and considered running as a Democrat in her first House race in 1996. For the first part of her congressional career, she remained quite moderate, especially by Texas GOP standards; for example, she was openly pro-choice before gradually flipping on the issue over the last decade. That evolution has been part of a process as Granger has gradually moved rightward towards the establishment conservative direction, and she has not broken with GOP orthodoxy on any major issue in recent years. Granger has significant assets in her high name recognition and a $2M warchest. She also has strong institutional support, most notably big endorsements from Trump and the NRA. However, Granger is still among the more moderate members of the House GOP, which has left an opening for a serious rival.

Chris Putnam

Ex-Colleyville councilman Chris Putnam (R) has mounted a serious challenge to Granger. Putnam is a tech executive who previously worked for Ross Perot in the latter’s business empire. He served a four year term on the council for the suburb of 27K, which is a few miles outside the district, from 2014 to 2018 before carpetbagging here. Putnam is running as an antiestablishment ideological conservative, hitting Granger on her prior pro-choice stance and establishment proclivities. He has fundraised very well with a warchest of around $700K, slightly less than half of which is self-funded. Putnam has collected strong institutional support from the party’s antiestablishment, including endorsements from the Club for Growth, a state-level pro-life group, and a sizeable minority of local elected officials. The CfG endorsement has been particularly big for him, as they have spent 7-figures in ads on his behalf and essentially brought Putnam to spending parity with the incumbent.

Both Granger and Putnam have been spending heavily in the race, and CW is that the race is quite competitive. In some ways, Putnam’s challenge seems a bit behind the times as ideological purity has lessened in importance in the GOP in the Trump era. Granger’s Trump endorsement is thus a major asset for her. However, Texas Republicans are still among the nation’s most ideologically conservative, and Putnam is a strong enough candidate to pose a real threat to the incumbent. Overall, I would peg Granger as a slight favorite, but an upset is very possible. There are no other candidates on the ballot, so the race will wrap up this week. In the general, this seat has not trended left as rapidly as some other areas in the Metroplex, and Dems are not seriously contesting it this year. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

TX-13 (R): TX-13 is America’s reddest district, an R+33 seat covering essentially the entire Panhandle around Amarillo, rural areas to the east along the Red River around Wichita Falls, and ending in northwest exurbs of the DFW Metroplex around Gainesville. The seat is open as longtime incumbent Mac Thornberry (R) is retiring.

Josh Winegarner

Lobbyist Josh Winegarner (R) is a former staffer for Sen. John Cornyn (R) and his predecessor Sen. Phil Gramm (R), who has since worked as a top state-level lobbyist for ranching interests. Unsurprisingly, he has sterling connections and establishment support; Winegarner has Thornberry’s endorsement and has raised the most from donors by far with hauls of a half million. He has also been touting his deep roots in the district, unlike his two best-funded rivals, who both parachuted into the district after Thornberry retired. Winegarner is running as an establishment conservative.

Chris Ekstrom

Businessman Chris Ekstrom (R) owns a large commercial real estate firm. Thanks to $800K in self-funding, he is the best funded candidate overall with hauls of nearly $1M. However, Ekstrom has a glaring liability in his craven carpetbagging – he has built his business in Dallas before carpetbagging to Wichita Falls after Thornberry retired. Ekstrom is running as a staunchly antiestablishment conservative on fiscal and social issues, pledging to be “the most conservative” member of Congress. He has collected endorsements from the Club for Growth and the state’s largest pro-life group.

Ronny Jackson

Former White House Physician and Trump VA nominee Ronny Jackson (R) was initially thought the front-runner for the seat due to his close ties to Trump. An career Naval doctor who served in Iraq, Jackson joined the White House medical staff in 2006 and was appointed by Obama as chief White House physician in 2013, later being retained by Trump. Jackson was nominated by Trump as VA secretary in 2018, but his nomination was scuttled amid rumors of drinking on the job and improperly dispensing prescriptions, allegations which both Trump and Jackson deny. Though he has no real ties to the seat, Jackson grew up in a nearby part of West Texas, and indicated interest in the seat after Thornberry’s retirement. However, he waited until the filing deadline three months ago to enter, and has had a steep learning curve that has led to rookie mistakes in managing the logistics of his campaign. For such a well-known contender, Jackson’s fundraising has been mediocre at under $200K, and Trump held off on endorsing him until just this past weekend, perhaps too late to make a real difference in the race. Jackson is running as an establishment conservative.

Lee Harvey

Wichita County commissioner Lee Harvey (R) is a businessman who has built several small energy and industrial businesses. He has a modest amount of institutional support and name recognition in the Wichita Falls area. However, his fundraising has been mediocre, raising little from donors and self-funding modestly for total hauls in the low six figures. Harvey has also attracted controversy for essentially bypassing the state’s resign to run law, as he has continued serving on the commission (without collecting pay) while the county executive has delayed on filling his seat – leading to speculation that Harvey is looking to be reappointed to his seat if and when he loses this race.

Elaine Hays

Amarillo councilwoman Elaine Hays (R) mounted a non-serious primary challenge to Thornberry six years ago, taking 19% on an antiestablishment platform. A financial planner by trade, Hays has since served three years on the council for the district’s largest city. Her views have moved somewhat to the center since her first run and she is now running as an establishment-friendly mainstream conservative. Hays has a significant amount of institutional support from the Amarillo area. However, her fundraising has been mediocre, with gross hauls in the low six figures with the help of modest self-funding.

Railroad conductor and veteran Vance Snider (R) is an Afghanistan veteran who now works as a blue-collar freight rail worker. He is running as an antiestablishment conservative and released a memorable ad of himself shooting a number of different guns. However, Snider’s fundraising has been very poor and he has no meaningful name recognition or establishment support. Thus, he is unlikely to be a threat to advance.

There are also nine non-serious Republicans in the race. A runoff seems nearly certain, and the biggest question is whether Jackson can take one of the top two spots. If Jackson advances, his Trump support and the additional time to build a strong campaign will likely make him the favorite. However, right now it looks like he is more likely than not to be boxed out with Ekstrom and Winegarner moving on to a competitive second round. Harvey and Hays seem longer shots but could surprise on their local bases. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

TX-17 (R): TX-17 is an R+12 seat covering the Waco and Bryan-College Station areas, a broad swath of surrounding rural territory, and a thin tail into northeast Austin. The seat is open as incumbent Bill Flores (R) is retiring.

Pete Sessions

Ex-Rep. Pete Sessions (R) is the best-known candidate in the field and is seeking a comeback by carpetbagging to this district, his childhood home. Sessions represented the upscale suburban northern Dallas based TX-32 for eleven terms before being defeated in the 2018 wave. He was known as an key cog in the House GOP establishment in his tenure there, including a stint as NRCC Chair, and rising to the low-profile but high-powered post of Rules Committee Chair from 2013 to 2018. Sessions had some minor controversies in his tenure over his financial dealings with some shady businessmen, particularly for ties to Russiagate figure Lev Parnas. Sessions’s fundraising for this race has been surprisingly mediocre for a former member of Congress with hauls of under $200K; however, that is actually still the second-highest donor fundraising in the field, as most of the cash in this race is from self-funding. Sessions’s carpetbagging has elicited more than a few grumbles from the local establishment in this district. However, he does have relatively high name recognition from his prior tenure and a big endorsement from the NRA.

George Hindman

2012 candidate and rocket scientist George Hindman (R) is a former NASA engineer who now runs a small aerospace research firm. Hindman is mounting a second run after taking 18% in a non-serious run against Flores two years ago. Since then, Hindman has been nearing perennial candidate status, with losses for an Austin city council seat in 2014 and as the sacrificial lamb nominee for a deep-blue State Senate seat in 2018. He also lives in the tail of the district in the Austin area, far from the seat’s main population centers of Waco and College Station. However, Hindman is the best-funded candidate in the field, though that status comes entirely from $600K in self-funding, as he has raised almost nothing from donors. He also has an endorsement from the state’s largest pro-life group. Ideologically, Hindman straddles the line between establishment and antiestablishment conservatism.

Renee Swann

Business manager Renee Swann (R) runs her husband’s ophthalmology practice. She is running as an establishment conservative and is the second-best-funded candidate in the field overall with gross hauls of nearly a half million. However, roughly eighty percent of that total is self-funded, and her donor hauls are quite modest. Swann has a big endorsement from Flores, who endorsed her over his former colleague in a pointed snub to Sessions. However, she has relatively little institutional support from other quarters.

Elianor Vessali

College Station councilwoman Elianor Vessali (R) has a compelling biography as a Christian Iranian immigrant, businesswoman, and former teacher. She has served two years on the council in the city of 115K after a stint on local the zoning board, and has also served as a local GOP official, making her the only candidate to have held elected office in the district. Vessali is an establishment conservative who has decent institutional support, particularly from the local establishment in the College Station area. Her best path to a runoff is likely by running up the score in that region. Vessali has had good overall fundraising of around a quarter million, though about two-thirds of that total is due to self-funding.

Scott Bland

Construction company executive Scott Bland (R) is a former Secret Service agent who left that post to take over his family’s home building company in the district. Bland has raised the most from donors in the field, but has only self-funded a small amount and his gross hauls of around $200K are fairly mediocre. He has decent connections with local chamber of commerce groups, and is running as a business-oriented establishment conservative.

Trent Sutton

Retired career Marine officer Trent Sutton (R) spent most of his career in the service before retiring to get a graduate degree at Texas A&M in the district. Sutton straddles the line betwen establishment and antiestablishment conservatism. He has had mediocre to poor fundraising of around $100K, about half of which is self-funded. Sutton also does not seem to have much institutional support. He thus seems like a long-shot but could surprise.

There are also five non-serious candidates on the ballot. Overall, this field is a muddle and a runoff seems certain. Basically any two of the six serious candidates could advance to a second round, and none of them can even really be called a front-runner. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

TX-18 (D): TX-18 is a narrowly Hispanic-plurality (but due to turnout disparities, effectively Black-dominated) D+27 seat covering a “G” shaped swath of northern Houston. The seat covers a ring of poor to lower-middle-class urban and inner suburban neighborhoods from downtown north to the city’s northern edge, scooping up all neighborhoods on the city’s north side with a significant Black population.

Sheila Jackson-Lee

Incumbent Sheila Jackson-Lee (D) is seeking a fourteenth term. Jackson-Lee has mainly been notable in her long congressional tenure for her reputation as being exceptionally difficult for staffers to work for. She has otherwise been an establishment liberal on most issues, though she is a notable supporter of slavery reparations. Jackson-Lee has turned back primary challenges before and retains strong establishment support; additionally, her warchest of around a half-million is mediocre for an incumbent but not insignificant. She may need those assets though, as she is facing a trio of at least somewhat credible challengers this year.

Marc Flores

Builder and Dem operative Marc Flores (D) is the best-funded of Jackson-Lee’s challengers. A former low-level operative with the Beto O’Rourke Senate campaign, Flores is running as an establishment liberal. Aided by a small amount of self-funding, he has had mediocre fundraising of around $100K. As the only serious Hispanic challenger to Jackson-Lee, Flores could also have a base in that community. However, he has little name recognition or establishment support.

Retired firefighter Jerry Ford (D) rose to become a high-ranking officer in Houston’s fire department in his career. As a concurrent second career, Ford has built multiple businesses, including a janitorial services company, an insurance agency, and a restaurant. He is running as a moderate to borderline DINO and emphasizing his outsider status. However, Ford’s main campaign plank has been hitting Jackson-Lee on her long tenure and abrasive personality. Ford has raised little from donors and has little institutional support, but has self-funded enough to run a credible campaign.

Optometrist Bimal Patel (D) has identity politics credibility as an openly-gay man of Indian descent. Patel is running as a technocratic bold progressive, with his signature issue being advocating for construction of a hyperloop system between downtown Houston and Bush Airport. That platform seems a questionable fit for the heavily minority and largely poor district. Patel has had poor fundraising, barely enough to run a serious campaign.

There are also three non-serious candidates in the primary. Overall, Jackson-Lee is probably a substantial favorite to wrap the race up in one round. However, with three challengers that are at least somewhat serious and additional vote scattering between minor candidates, it seems very possible she could be held to a runoff with any of her three serious challengers. Flores is probably the best positioned to advance to a second round if one is triggered. However, gaining the name recognition and funds to coalesce anti-Jackson-Lee support will be a significant challenge for any of her rivals in a second round. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

TX-22 (R, D): TX-22 is a White-plurality R+10 seat covering most of Houston’s second-ring southern and southwestern suburbs. It includes most of Fort Bend County, including Sugar Land and Rosenberg, and a tail through suburbs to the east around Pearland. The seat is open as incumbent Pete Olson (R) is retiring, and the field is the state’s most crowded with nine serious Republicans and three serious Democrats.

Kathaleen Wall

2018 TX-2 candidate and tech executive Kathaleen Wall (R), who has run a semiconductor company, is carpetbagging to run here. In spite of self-funding over $6M on her bid two years ago, Wall did not spend that money well, as she came in a shockingly disappointing third place in the first round. Wall’s personal wealth is such that she has been able to crack her wallet easily for this race as well, self-funding another $4M (she has not fundraised from donors). She also has a long history as a major GOP donor and party official, which gave her nearly unanimous establishment support two years ago. However, most of her biggest-name supporters from that race, like Gov. Abbott and Sen. Cruz, learned their lesson and are not backing her here. Wall still has some decent institutional support, including endorsements from the state’s largest pro-life group and Rand Paul. Wall’s run two years ago was criticized for her bad stump skills, mediocre ads, and lack of any great rationale for her candidacy other than buying the seat. Those issues are still there for her in this race, though she has improved noticeably on all three of those fronts from two years ago. In particular, Wall is tacking to the right for this race and trying to carve out a niche as an antiestablishment conservative.

Pierce Bush

Nonprofit exec and Three-Star Heir Force Gen. Pierce Bush (R) is the 33-year old grandson of Bush 41 and nephew of Bush 43; he is the son of Neil Bush, who attracted some notability for his shady business dealings while his dad was VP. In his own career, Pierce Bush has been chair of the Houston area’s Big Brothers/Big Sisters program chapter. His family connections have netted him strong establishment support, including an endorsement from Olson, as well as strong fundraising, with hauls over $1M without self-funding. Bush is generally running as an establishment conservative, but sometimes sounds moderate W-style compassionate conservative notes. His ideological proclivities have also been attacked by his rivals, as Bush was photographed at an anti-Trump rally in 2017. However, though the Bush legacy has fallen on hard times in the Trump era, the name and connections still mean something in Texas, as his cousin George P. (R) proved with his easy election and re-election as Lands Commissioner.

Greg Hill

Judge and ex-Pearland councilman Greg Hill (R) is a former Border Patrol agent and prosecutor who has served two years as an elected local judge. Hill straddles the line between establishment and antiestablishment conservatism. He was the first major candidate into the race after Olson retired and has fundraised well, with hauls of about $400K, aided by modest self-funding. Hill has a modest amount of institutional support, most notably from the police union.

Troy Nehls

Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls (R) has served eight years as Sheriff in the county covering the vast majority of the seat. He is running as an antiestablishment conservative and was seriously considering mounting a challenge to Olson in the primary before the incumbent retired. Nehls has cultivated an image as a tough-on-crime Sheriff; however, he has actually been hit from the right by Wall in this race for opposing an anti-sanctuary city bill the legislature passed in 2017 due to concerns over law enforcement officers’ safety. Nehls has had good but not great fundraising of around $300K for this race, but his high name recognition in Fort Bend could compensate for those lower cash totals.

Jonathan Camarillo

Retired career Marine officer Jonathan Camarillo (R) recently retired after 20 years in the service, including a tour in Iraq. Camarillo has raised little from donors, but has self-funded $100K for a mediocre low-six-figure warchest overall. He is running as an establishment conservative. However, Camarillo has little in the way of name recognition or institutional support.

Bangar Reddy

Businessman Bangar Reddy (R) operates an IT company. Reddy grew up poor in India before coming to the US to study at Stanford. Ideologically he straddles the line between establishment and antiestablishment conservatism. His fundraising has been mediocre, with gross hauls in the low six figures with the help of modest self-funding. However, his name recognition and establishment support are both slight.

Shandon Phan

Attorney Shandon Phan (R) has a compelling biography as a Vietnamese immigrant whose father was a political prisoner of the Communist dictatorship. Phan, who also hosts a radio talk show, could have ties to the district’s significant Vietnamese community. He is running as a staunchly antiestablishment conservative. Phan has raised enough to run a credible campaign, but his overall hauls are still poor. His name recognition and institutional support are also mediocre.

Attorney Howard Steele (R) is a prominent local labor lawyer. However, in spite of a relatively high profile in his law practice, he has had poor fundraising for this race, barely enough to run a credible campaign. He also has little institutional support. Steele is running as an establishment conservative with emphasis on the niche issue of combating human trafficking.

Veteran and businessman Joe Walz (R) is running as a staunchly antiestablishment conservative. With the aid of a small amount of self-funding, he has raised barely enough to run a credible campaign. However, he has little name recognition or institutional support and thus seems a long-shot.

There are also six non-serious Republicans in the race. Overall, the GOP primary is looking like a four-way race between Wall, Bush, Nehls, and Hill. A runoff seems certain, and any two of the four could reasonably advance. Due to their funding advantages, Wall and Bush moving on seems like the single most likely scenario, but Nehls and/or Hill snagging spots on their stronger local connections should also be considered a strong possibility. Across the aisle, three serious Democrats are facing off.

Sri Preston-Kulkarni

2018 nominee Sri Preston-Kulkarni (D) is mounting a second bid after losing to Olson by 5% two years ago. Preston-Kulkarni is a former career foreign service officer who has received some significant media attention for his fluency in multiple languages, which he has shown off on the campaign trail. Ideologically, Preston-Kulkarni straddles the line between establishment liberal and bold progressive, and has been a bit more vague on ideology this cycle than in his relatively progressive 2018 campaign. He has fundraised very well with a warchest of over $1.2M, and has nearly unanimous support from the local and national Democratic establishments. However, he has been hit for a 1997 arrest for cocaine possession. Preston-Kulkarni faces two serious rivals in the primary.

Derrick Reed

Pearland councilman Derrick Reed (D) is an engineer and attorney who has served five years on the council for the suburb of 120K. He is running as a progressive on social issues, with a particular emphasis on criminal justice reform, and a mainstream to moderate liberal on fiscal issues. Reed has had mediocre fundraising in the low six figures and has lost out to Kulkarni on most establishment support, but could have name recognition from his time in local office.

Nyanza Davis-Moore

Attorney Nyanza Davis-Moore (D) has had mediocre fundraising in the low six figures, with some modest self-funding. Davis-Moore’s campaign has been most notable for her scorched-earth strategy. She has been (without evidence) accusing Reed of having beat his ex-wife, allegations that a judge found so slanderous he issued an order to prevent Davis-Moore from repeating them. Davis-Moore has also aggressively hit Preston-Kulkarni on his cocaine possession arrest. Those attacks have not endeared her to the Democratic establishment, and she has little institutional support.

There are also two non-serious candidates in the primary. Overall, Preston-Kulkarni’s name recognition and overwhelming advantages in cash and institutional support probably make him slightly more likely than not to wrap the race up in one round. However, it is possible he could be held to a runoff, with Reed being the most likely candidate to take second place and join him. The general election will be highly competitive. This seat is still GOP-leaning, but has been trending left rapidly with a massive influx of minorities and a leftward trend in Texas suburbs. Both sides are likely to have credible nominees, so for now it seems like the GOP nominee will start as a slight favorite in a competitive race. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean R.

TX-23 (R, D): TX-23 is a Hispanic-majority R+1 seat, including a huge swath of rural territory along the Rio Grande from the poor eastern suburbs of El Paso to Del Rio and east to Uvalde. However, much of the population is concentrated in a small tail of the district wrapping a “C” around the western suburbs of San Antonio. The seat is open as incumbent Will Hurd (R) is retiring.

Tony Gonzales

Professor and veteran Tony Gonzales (R) is a former Naval cryptologist who has served in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Since leaving the service, he has held diverse roles as a staffer to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R), think tank operative, and professor. Gonales has also served on an advisory board to the city of San Antonio. He is running as a moderate on fiscal issues and a staunch conservative on cultural issues. Aided by a small amount of self-funding, Gonzales has fundraised well with gross hauls of nearly a half million. His compelling biography has given him nearly unanimous GOP establishment support, including Hurd’s endorsement.

Raul Reyes

Businessman and veteran Raul Reyes (R) served in the Air Force and now owns a home-building construction company. Reyes is running as a staunch antiestablishment conservative and has been attacking Hurd’s tenure in the seat as insufficiently conservative. Aided by a modest amount of self-funding, He has had mediocre fundraising overall with gross hauls a bit under $200K. However, he has little in the way of institutional or establishment support.

Alma Arredondo-Lynch

Dentist and 2018 candidate Alma Arredondo-Lynch (R) took 20% in the primary two years ago as Hurd’s only opponent without running a serious campaign. Arredondo-Lynch is a dentist, naval veteran, and rancher who is running as a staunchly antiestablishment cultural conservative. She has raised only a small amount from donors, but has self funded around $100K to have mediocre fundraising overall. She could also benefit from name recognition from her prior run. However, she has little institutional support and is not running a particularly professional campaign.

Businessman Jeff McFarlin (R) is a 31-year old who works in the energy industry. He is running as an establishment conservative with an emphasis on business- and rural-development issues. McFarlin has had poor fundraising, though enough to run a credible campaign. However, he has little name recognition or establishment support.

There are also five non-serious candidates in the race. Overall, Gonzales looks like a strong favorite to take first place, but the big question is whether he can wrap the race up in one round or if his rivals will hold him to a runoff. Right now a runoff seems more likely than not, with Reyes having the best chance to advance but Arredondo-Lynch and McFarlin also having chances to take the second spot.

Gina Ortiz Jones

The nominee will head to a general with 2018 nominee and veteran Gina Ortiz-Jones (D), who is running a second time after a narrow loss to Hurd by under 1% last cycle. Ortiz-Jones has identity politics appeal as a lesbian of Filipina descent who served in the Air Force in Iraq while closeted. After leaving the military, she held mid-level roles at the Defense Intelligence Agency and the US Trade Representative office during the Obama administration. Ideologically, she straddles the line between establishment liberal and bold progressive. Her second bid has been well-received by the Democratic establishment; she has cleared the field of serious primary opponents and has raised a gangbusters $2.7M. Though Ortiz-Jones has four rivals in the primary, none are serious or notable.

In the general, this seat is looking like one of Democrats’ best pickup opportunities this cycle. Ortiz-Jones has high name recognition and fundraising, and while this seat has not trended left as rapidly as some other parts of Texas, any Republican will face a tough and probably uphill race against Ortiz-Jones without Hurd’s incumbency and unusually strong candidate skills. However, Republicans do have credible choices in the race and the general election will be competitive. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean D.

TX-24 (R, D): TX-24 is a White-plurality R+9 seat in suburbs northwest of Dallas near DFW airport, including Coppell and Carrolton. The seat is open as incumbent Kenny Marchant (R) is retiring, and both sides have crowded primaries.

Beth Van Duyne

Ex-Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne (R) is the front-runner for the GOP nomination and has Trump’s endorsement. Van Duyne is an antiestablishment conservative who served as Mayor of the large, lower-middle-class inner suburb of 245K for six years from 2011 to 2017. After retiring as Mayor, she took a mid-level position with the Trump HUD department, which she held until jumping into this race. Van Duyne was somewhat controversial as Mayor, but is generally well-liked across the GOP, particularly among the grassroots. That appeal allowed her to quickly coalesce nearly unanimous institutional support for this race; even before Trump’s endorsement she had managed to keep all other established Republicans out. Van Duyne has also fundraised well, with gross hauls of around $750K.

Sunny Chaparala

Realtor Sunny Chaparala (R) is Van Duyne’s best-funded rival. An Indian immigrant, Chaparala is trying to get to Van Duyne’s right as an even more antiestablishment conservative, criticizing Van Duyne’s political experience. Chaparala has not fundraised significantly from donors, but has made herself a credible candidate with over $300K in self-funding. However, she does not have anything near Van Duyne’s name recognition or institutional support.

Desi Maes

Businessman Desi Maes (R) is a former career Army officer and Green Beret. After leaving the service, Maes worked as a corporate executive and business owner of a home remodeling company. Maes has had mediocre overall fundraising in the low six figures, over half of which is from self-funding. He is running as an establishment conservative, but has little institutional support.

Realtor and GOP operative David Fegan (R) worked as a staffer for the campaign of Gov. Greg Abbott (R). He has received some buzz for his youth at just 25. Fegan is running as an establishment conservative, and has raised enough to run a credible campaign with modest self-funding. However, his overall funding is poor and he has little name recognition or institutional support.

There is also a non-serious Republican in the race. Overall, Van Duyne should be a strong favorite to win the nomination in one round, though there is a slight chance she could be held to a runoff with Chaparala. Across the aisle, five serious Democrats are facing off.

Kim Olson

2018 Agriculture Commissioner nominee and veteran Kim Olson (D) lost her statewide bid to controversial antiestablishment incumbent Sid Miller (R) by 5% two years ago, which could provide her significant residual name recognition. Olson is a career Air Force officer who was among the first female pilots in the service, and has an interesting story of working at the Pentagon on 9/11. Since retiring a bit over a decade ago, she has run a veterans’ nonprofit. Olson is carpetbagging to this seat after previously serving on the school board in Weatherford in the western Metroplex exurbs. She is running as a moderate liberal and has significant institutional support, including an endorsement from the liberal veterans’ group VoteVets. Olson has also topped the field in fundraising with nearly $1M in gross hauls.

Candace Valenzuela

School board member Candace Valenzuela (D) has a compelling biography of experiencing homelessness and domestic violence as a child; she also has identity politics appeal with dual Black and Hispanic ancestry. Valenzuela has arguably the strongest institutional support in the race, particularly from national progressives, including endorsements from Elizabeth Warren and Emily’s List. However, she is not running on a particularly left-wing platform, straddling the line between establishment liberal and bold progressive with a downscale, fiscal progressive focus. Valenzuela has fundraised well with hauls of a little under a half million.

Jan McDowell

2016/18 nominee Jan McDowell (D) is back for a third run at the seat. An accountant by trade, McDowell lost by just 3% two years ago despite an unheralded and underfunded campaign. That bid could net her significant name recognition. However, unlike some unsuccessful but overperforming 2018 candidates, there has been no enthusiasm from the Democratic establishment for a repeat bid from McDowell; she has had little institutional support and her fundraising has been poor, barely enough to run a credible campaign. McDowell is running as a bold progressive.

2018 candidate and neuroscientist John Biggan (D) is also running again after taking second place and 22% in the primary last time. Biggan is running as a bold progressive and touting his scientific background. He could have some name recognition from his prior run; however, his fundraising has been poor, barely enough to run a credible campaign with modest self-funding. He also has little establishment support.

There is also a non-serious Democrat in the race and a Democrat who has ended her campaign. Overall, Olson seems a slight favorite over Valenzuela, but the other candidates will almost certainly draw enough support to send them to a runoff. In the general, both sides seem likely to have credible nominees. This seat is historically deeply conservative, but like many inner suburban Texas areas, has been stampeding leftward in the Trump era. However, it is still GOP-leaning overall. Thus, the Republican nominee will likely start as a slight favorite in a very competitive race. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean R.

TX-25 (D): TX-25 is an R+11 seat stretching from Austin’s western suburbs and a small slice of the city, through a broad swath of rural territory west of Killeen, to the southwest exurbs of the DFW Metroplex around Burleson.

Roger Williams

Incumbent Roger Williams (R) is seeking a fifth term. A wealthy car dealer, Williams entered politics as a major GOP donor before serving as a cabinet official for then-Gov. Rick Perry (R) in the 2000s. After winning this seat in 2012, he has been an establishment conservative in Congress and is known as a skilled inside operator. This seat was one of several used to (stupidly) crack Austin in 2012 in an attempt to defeat Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D). As a result, it contains a slice of deep-blue urban and inner suburban territory that has been growing rapidly and stampeding leftward. That leftward trend in the district gave Williams a closer than expected race in 2018, and the seat has popped onto Democrats’ radar as a potential target this year.

Julie Oliver

2018 nominee Julie Oliver (D) is mounting a second bid for the seat. Oliver lost by a closer than expected 9-point margin two years ago on a surge of white liberal turnout in the Austin area. Oliver is a hospital adminsitrator who has a compelling biography of dropping out of high school and becoming pregnant as a teen before finishing school and turning her life around. She has essentially unanimous support from the Democratic establishment and has had good fundraising of around $400K. She is running as a bold progressive on both fiscal and cultural issues, a questionable fit in the district that, while left-trending, remains conservative. However, Oliver is facing a candidate even farther to her left.

Heidi Sloan

Nonprofit staffer Heidi Sloan (D) works with a nonprofit that teaches formerly-homeless people agricultural skills. She is running as one of the most left-wing serious House candidates nationwide, calling herself a Socialist and embracing the ultra-left Sunrise Movement (best known as the group that dispatched children to heckle Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D)). In a what feels like a moment out of the French Revolution, Sloan was physically assaulted by even-further-left activists during the campaign who considered her a sellout for participating in electoral politics at all. Sloan has drawn a significant amount of buzz for her leftist platform and has had mediocre but credible fundraising. However, sensing that nominating her would be a punt on a potentially-competitive race, the Democratic and progressive establishments have largely bypassed her candidacy.

Oliver should be a substantial favorite in the primary, though the Democratic base in this district is dominated by very left-leaning Austinites which could provide Sloan the chance to pull the upset. This seat has been trending left rapidly in recent years with liberal influx to Austin. Oliver is well to the left of the seat’s median voter, but in a good Democratic year, she could still have the chance to surprise. Conversely, a Sloan nomination would be essentially a total punt here. For now, assuming Oliver is nominated, Williams is likely to start the general as a very strong, but not quite prohibitive, favorite for re-election. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely R.

TX-26 (R): TX-26 is an R+18 seat covering outer northwest suburbs and exurbs of the DFW Metroplex around Denton and Flower Mound.

Michael Burgess

Incumbent Michael Burgess (R) is seeking a tenth term. A gynecologist by trade, Burgess has been a backbench conservative straddling the line between establishment and antiestablishment proclivities for his two decades in Congress. Burgess has had a few mildly serious primary challengers over his career, but generally turned them back with ease due to strong connections to both the local establishment and grassroots. He does once again have a noteworthy challenger this year, however.

Jack Wyman

Ex-Maine State Rep. and 1988 Maine US Senate nominee Jack Wyman (R) has an interesting political biography. A teacher and minister, Wyman served two terms as a State Rep. in the 1970s and was then the sacrificial-lamb nominee against Sen. George Mitchell (D) in 1988. Wyman then took third in a crowded gubernatorial primary in 1994 before leaving the state. After a stint in Connecticut, where he was elected to a local school board, he relocated to Texas in the early 2000s and has largely been out of politics since. Wyman has had mediocre but credible fundraising of just over $100K. He is running as an antiestablishment-leaning conservative, but does not have much in the way of name recognition or institutional support.

There are also two non-serious candidates in the race. Overall, Burgess seems likely to be a strong favorite for renomination barring something unexpected, though Wyman is a serious enough candidate to have a small chance at holding him to a runoff. This heavily White and middle class seat has not been trending left as strongly as other parts of the Metroplex and Democrats are unlikely to seriously contest it in the general. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

TX-28 (D): TX-28 is a Hispanic-Majority D+9 seat, the westernmost of the three “Fajita Strips” stretching north from the Mexican border. The seat includes poor suburbs west of McAllen and the Laredo area before reaching north to take in San Antonio’s generally poor east side and some lower-middle-class suburbs and exurbs to the south and southeast.

Henry Cuellar

Incumbent Henry Cuellar (D) is seeking a ninth term. Cuellar is a former state legislator who served as a top cabinet official under then-Gov. Rick Perry (R) in the early 2000s. He is known for having a strong political machine in his hometown of Laredo, including a brother who is the Sheriff and a sister who is an elected county official. Cuellar’s machine allowed him to oust an incumbent from the center to win this seat in 2004. He retains major assets in a 7-figure warchest and a good amount of establishment support from the party’s more moderate flank, both locally and nationally, including endorsements from Pelosi and the Chamber of Commerce. Laredo has long been known for having some of the nation’s most conservative Democrats on both cultural and economic issues, and Cuellar is in that mold. In Congress, Cuellar has always been a moderate, but is now one of the caucus’s 3 most conservative members as the ranks of truly conservative Dems have dwindled to almost zero. Though he generally votes the Democratic line on most issues and supported impeachment, Cuellar is pro-life and business-friendly, attributes that have become increasingly out of step with his party. Though Cuellar’s machine and base in Laredo have always kept him popular, his position on Democrats’ right flank has drawn him a very serious challenger this year.

Jessica Cisneros

Attorney Jessica Cisneros (D) has become a national liberal cause celeb with her challenge to Cuellar. A 26-year old who currently works with a non-governmental public defender nonprofit, Cisneros is running as a bold progressive on both economic and cultural issues. She has become a favorite of the national progressive community, gaining truly gangbusters fundraising with hauls of $1.3M, which is only a little short of the incumbent’s $1.8M warchest. Cisneros has also landed big endorsements from AOC, Warren, and Bernie, as well as national liberal groups like Emily’s List. She has also cultivated significant support from the more liberal side of the local establishment as well, including receiving backing from most local unions and an endorsement from ex-San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro (D). However, Cisneros has a significant handicap in her lack of ties to the local machine, which can be a big vote-mover in the district. She has also been considered a mediocre campaigner and has been knocked for her youth and inexperience.

This race has been considered one of the year’s hottest Democratic primaries. This area is known for its conservative Democratic heritage, but that trend may be slipping as Democrats move left in general, and Cuellar likely does have some issues on his left flank. However, Cisneros’s bold progressive style campaign seems a questionable fit for the area’s relatively business-friendly and culturally moderate Democratic electorate as well. Both Cuellar and Cisneros have fundraised well and spent heavily, suggesting the race is going to be close. Overall, there is no clear favorite; with no other candidates on the ballot, there will be a winner this week. Republicans are not seriously contesting this seat in the general. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

TX-30 (D): TX-30 is a Black-plurality D+29 seat covering downtown Dallas, the city’s poor south side, and the generally middle-class-minority suburbs of southern Dallas County.

Eddie-Bernice Johnson

Incumbent Eddie-Bernice Johnson (D), the House’s second-oldest member, is seeking a fifteenth term at age 84. She has said this term will be her last – though she has made and broken that promise several times before. Johnson is an establishment liberal and former psychiatric nurse. She is notable (positively) for some mental health advocacy work and (negatively) for some minor corruption scandals. She has had strong establishment support in her district, but has two notable primary challengers this year.

Businessman and 2015 Dallas city council candidate Hasani Burton (D) worked in the medical device industry before starting a small comic book publisher. Burton’s first political foray was a 13% and fourth place showing in a LRTT race for city council five years ago. For this race, he is running to Johnson’s left as a bold progressive. Burton has raised essentially nothing from donors, but self-funded barely enough to run a serious campaign. However, with his low name recognition and few institutional connections, he is unlikely to be a serious threat to the incumbent.

Ex-State Rep. and perennial candidate Barbara Mallory-Caraway (D) is running against Johnson for the fifth straight cycle. Mallory-Caraway served on the Dallas city council and Texas State House before launching her first run against Johnson in 2012, and is married to Dwaine Caraway (D), a former Dallas councilman who is currently in prison serving time for corruption. Though she got some buzz in that first race, she was never really able to dent the incumbent’s establishment support and fell far short of Johnson. But undeterred, she has continued to run every cycle since, though never taking more than 30% of the vote. She has not fundraised seriously for this race and is unlikely to be a major factor.

There is also one minor candidate in the race. Overall, Johnson should be headed to easy victories in the primary and general. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe D.

TX-31 (R, D): TX-31 is an R+10 seat covering the rapidly growing and left-trending northern suburbs of Austin around Round Rock and Georgetown, and also including the Killeen and Temple areas to the north.

John Carter

Incumbent John Carter (R) is seeking a tenth term. Carter is a former judge who has been a backbench establishment conservative in his two decades in Congress. Prior to 2018, Carter had never faced a difficult re-election race, but this district has rapidly trended left in the last few years with an flood of upscale white liberals and minorities into the Austin suburbs. Carter was held to a shockingly close 3-point win in 2018 by now-Senate-candidate MJ Hegar (D), and the 78-year old was high on retirement watchlists before deciding to run again. Carter is likely to once again face a serious challenge this year.

Carter does have a somewhat notable primary challenger in retired firefighter Michael Williams (R). Williams has raised essentially nothing from donors, but has self-funded enough to run a credible campaign on a staunchly antiestablishment cultural conservative platform. However, Williams has little name recognition or institutional support and his candidate skills are unpolished. Thus, he seems unlikely to draw much more than scattered protest votes. There are also two non-serious Some Dudes in the race. Overall it would be surprising if Carter did not win renomination easily. Across the aisle, there are five Democrats vying for the nomination.

Christine Eady-Mann

Physician and 2018 candidate Christine Eady-Mann (D) lost the runoff to Hegar two years ago. A family general practitioner, Eady-Mann is running as an establishment-friendly bold progressive. She has significant name recognition and establishment support from her run two years ago, probably leading the field on both counts. She also has had mediocre but credible fundraising of around $200K. Eady-Mann’s name recognition and funds probably make her the marginal favorite, but she is facing four other serious candidates.

Donna Imam

Nonprofit executive Donna Imam (D) is an engineer by training who now runs a nonprofit focused on adult continuing education programs.. She is running as a bold progressive with some far-left tendencies, with a staunchly left-wing platform on both fiscal and cultural issues. Imam has a significant amount of establishment support, particularly from labor groups. She has the largest overall cash hauls in the field, at a mediocre to good total a bit under a quarter-million. However, $100K of that is due to self-funding, and she has raised significantly less than Eady-Mann from donors.

Tammy Young

Round Rock councilwoman Tammy Young (D) is the only elected official in the race to take on Carter. Young has a compelling biography of having two children as a teenager before turning her life around to become a special education teacher and now a realtor. She has served three years on the council for the large suburb of 125K in the heart of the district, which could net her significant name recognition. She is running as an establishment liberal and has decent institutional support. However, her fundraising has been quite poor.

Business consultant Dan Janjigian (D) has an interesting biography from his prior careers. Though he has lived his whole life in the US, he was a competitor in the 2002 Olympic bobsled competition on behalf of Armenia. Janjigian then dabbled as an actor, appearing in the universally-panned independent film The Room. For the last decade, he has led a much more prosaic life as a healthcare business consultant. Janjigian is running as a bold progressive on social issues and an establishment liberal on fiscal ones. Though his unusual biography has gained him some media profiles and name recognition, he has not translated that into fundraising, as his hauls are poor.

Civil servant Eric Hanke (D) works as an administrator for the state retirement benefits program. However, he is probably better-known in the area for his second career as a folk singer-songwriter. Hanke is running as a bold progressive on social issues and an establishment liberal on fiscal issues. His fundraising has been poor, though barely enough to run a credible campaign, and he has little institutional support, so he seems a longer-shot to advance.

Overall, a runoff seems very likely on the Democratic side. Eady-Mann is probably more likely than not to take one of the two slots, and may have a slight chance to win outright. Imam is probably the most likely to take the second, but Young, Janjigian, and Hanke could all surprise to take a runoff spot at the expense of Imam or even Eady-Mann. In the general, in spite of Carter’s close shave last cycle, none of the Dem candidates this year have shown Hegar’s appeal or fundraising power. Thus, while the race is competitive, for now Carter still looks like a substantial favorite for re-election. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely R.

TX-32 (R): TX-32 is a White-plurality R+5 seat covering upscale areas of north-central Dallas around the Park Cities, and diversifying inner suburbs to the east and northeast around Garland and Wylie.

Colin Allred

Incumbent Colin Allred (D) is seeking a second term. Allred was a linebacker for the Tennessee Titans for five years before going to law school and joining the Obama administration HUD department as a staffer. He has been an establishment liberal in Congress and benefits from a strong leftward trend in this upscale and rapidly diversifying district. However, the seat is still light-red overall, and Allred seems likely to get a tough challenge this year.

Genevieve Collins

Education technology company executive Genevieve Collins (R) touts her deep ties to the district, unlike her main primary rivals. She is a relative of ex-Rep. Jim Collins (R), who represented much of the area in the 70s. Collins has been very well-funded in the donor-rich district, raising $1M from donors and adding a modest amount of self-funding. Ideologically, she straddles the line between establishment and antiestablishment conservatism and seems to have the majority of local institutional support.

Floyd McLendon

Former Navy SEAL Floyd McLendon (R) had a quarter-century career as a Naval officer. He has received buzz for that biography and his African-American heritage, and has fundraised well with a warchest of over a half-million. However, McLendon has been hit for not having strong ties to the seat, openly admitting he previously considered a run in the Austin area before deciding on a run in this district. He is running as an establishment conservative and has a modest amount of institutional support.

Jon Hollis

Film technician Jon Hollis (R) was initially running against Adam Schiff (in California!) and used that bid to grift from small donors, before packing up and moving to this race. Hollis’s run against Schiff allowed him to raise a mediocre warchest in the low six figures, but his fundraising has essentially dried up since making the move. He appears to have no real ties to the district or Texas before parachuting in late last year. Hollis thus seems unlikely to be a major factor in this race, but he has the resources to draw a significant number of votes and potentially force a runoff between Collins and McLendon.

There are also two non-serious candidates in the race. Overall, Collins looks like a slight favorite over McLendon, but either could win or the other candidates could send them to a runoff. This seat is archetypal for the kind of district that has been rapidly moving leftward in the Trump era, and Allred’s incumbency seems likely to leave him as at least a slight favorite in the general. However, both Collins and McLendon are credible well-funded candidates who will make the race competitive and could have a chance to flip the seat back. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean D.

TX-36 (R): TX-36 is an R+26 seat covering a large swath of rural southeast Texas north of Beaumont, as well as a chunk of Houston’s southeast suburbs around Deer Park and Baytown.

Brian Babin

Incumbent Brian Babin (R) is seeking a fourth term. Babin is a dentist, Air Force veteran, and former small-town Mayor of Woodville (pop. 2K), who narrowly lost a run for this seat back in 1996 when it was a Conservadem bastion. Since ultimately being elected in 2014, he has been considered one of the most antiestablishment members of the House, but has not been as big a firebrand as some of his colleagues and has remained on decent terms with the GOP establishment as well. However, the somewhat strange configuration of this district has meant that there has been tension between its suburban and rural portions. Babin hails from the rural eastern part of the district, and this year faces a serious primary challenge from the Houston suburbs.

RJ Boatman

Businessman RJ Boatman (R) has served as police chief for the slumburb of South Houston, outside the district, though he lives in the seat. He has also worked as a judge and now runs a school-security company. Boatman is running as an antiestablishment conservative and hits Babin on his 2017 decision to quietly not renew his membership in the Freedom Caucus. Aided by modest self-funding, he has had mediocre to good fundraising with a warchest a bit under $200K. However, Boatman has little in the way of name recognition or establishment support.

Overall, Babin looks like a strong favorite for renomination, though Boatman is a serious enough candidate to have a small chance at pulling the upset, particularly if he can run up the margin in the suburban Harris County portion of the district. Even if Boatman falls short, don’t forget about him though, as the southeast suburbs of Houston are one of the most likely places for a new district to be placed as Texas gains seats in 2022. Thus, this race could simply be a dry run for a Boatman open-seat run in two years. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

TX-21: There is also one seat in Texas without competitive primaries that will be seriously contested in the general. TX-21 is an R+10 seat based in a thin corridor of largely upscale suburban areas stretching from northeast San Antonio, to south-central Austin, tracing a thin line parallel to and northwest of I-35. The seat also includes a large chunk of sparsely-populated territory to the west in the rural Hill Country around Fredericksburg and Kerrville.

Chip Roy

Incumbent Chip Roy (R) is seeking a second term. Roy is a former CoS for Sen. Ted Cruz (R) who has been a front-bencher in his first term as one of the house’s most prominent antiestablishment conservatives. Roy has been particularly prominent on fiscal issues, most notably unilaterally holding up a disaster-relief bill last year over spending concerns.

Wendy Davis

The presumptive Dem nominee to take on Roy is ex-State Sen. and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis (D). Davis was previously a legislator representing a purple district in the Fort Worth area, and best known for her 2013 protest against abortion-restriction legislation that made her a national left-wing icon. After falling flat in the 2014 gubernatorial race, Davis relocated to the Austin area and came out of political retirement when she was recruited to make a run here.

Both candidates are well-funded with 7-figure warchests. Davis is a credible candidate who is beloved by Austin’s white liberal community, and the seat is left-trending. However, the terrain still favors Roy and he starts as at least a moderate favorite. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean R.

TX-RRC (R, D): Finally, one of three seats on Texas’s Railroad Commission is up. The Texas Railroad Commission is a unique 3-member body elected statewide at-large to staggered six-year terms. In spite of its name, it no longer regulates railroads, but instead regulates the energy industry with a particular focus on oil and gas production. In America’s energy heartland, that gives the body immense power. But with statewide races at the bottom of the ballot and a policy portfolio far from emotionally-charged hot-button issues to get excited about, voters have had a rather depressing habit of sending random unqualified people to the commission on a semi-regular basis. Both sides have primaries with two Republicans and four Dems running.

Ryan Sitton

Incumbent Ryan Sitton (R) is seeking a second term. Sitton is a career engineer in the energy industry who has been a low-profile mainstream conservative on the commission. He has essentially unanimous support for a second term from the Texas GOP establishment. However, he does still face a primary challenger.

Sitton’s primary challenger is rancher and businessman James Wright (R), who has run some energy-related businesses. Wright is little-known, but could benefit from potential name confusion with the 80s-era House Speaker. Overall, Sitton should be a strong favorite for renomination barring an unexpected fluke. Across the aisle, four Democrats are vying for their party’s nomination, and vote-scattering means that a runoff should be very likely.

Chrysta Castaneda

Attorney Chrysta Castaneda (D) has the strongest establishment support and fundraising of the Democratic candidates. Castaneda, who has an engineering degree, entered the race early and has mainly focused on an interesting niche issue of reducing the amount of natural gas flared (burned) as waste instead of collected and transported. Overall, she seems to be running as a moderate liberal. Castaneda’s establishment support makes her the front-runner for a runoff spot, but there is a potential that low-info vote-scattering causes her to fall short.

Roberto Alonso

Ex-State Rep. Roberto Alonso (D) represented a Dallas district for a quarter century before losing a primary challenge in 2018. In a rather interesting gimmick, Alonso decided to list himself as Roberto “Beto” Alonso on the ballot, hoping to piggyback on name recognition from the state’s favorite overgrown couch-surfer-dude. Alonso could have residual name recognition in the Dallas area, and is probably the most likely candidate to advance with Castaneda to a second round.

Attorney Mark Watson (D) is also running as a more progressive candidate. He has had a long career as an attorney and has had some involvement in the energy industry as an investor in drilling operations. However, Watson is little-known and poorly funded, and has little in the way of establishment support.

Teacher Kelly Stone (D) is running a serious campaign on a far-left platform, emphasizing environmental regulation. She is little-known and poorly funded, and has no real experience with the energy industry. However, Stone could still advance to the runoff on scattered votes.

Overall, the ultra-low-info nature of the race makes firm predictions hard to come by, but I would personally guess Castaneda and Alonso advance to a runoff, but realistically the number of scattered low-info votes are so great that any two Dems could realistically advance. In the general, Sitton is likely to be a strong favorite, but Dems may have a chance if Texas is closer than expected up-ballot.