Among Likely NC Voters, Clinton Holds Narrow Lead in Race for President

Raleigh— The latest Civitas poll finds that North Carolina likely voters prefer Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in a presidential match up.

In the head-to-head match up, 42 percent of likely voters in our state said they’d vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton while 40 percent said they’d vote for Republican Donald Trump. Six percent prefer Libertarian Gary Johnson.

“At this point in the 2008 election, John McCain led Barack Obama 45-41— a four-point lead,” noted Civitas President Francis De Luca. “Making assumptions based on a lead of just a few points, five months before the general election, would be foolish.”

The text of the actual questions is below:

If the election for President were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?

4/16 5/16 6/16

37% 39% 40% Donald Trump, the Republican,

49% 36% 42% Hillary Clinton, the Democrat,

8% 6% … or Gary Johnson, the Libertarian?

10% 14% 10% Lean/ Undecided

32% 31% 33% DEFINITELY TRUMP

5% 9% 7% PROBABLY TRUMP

3% 2% 2% LEAN TRUMP

42% 30% 37% DEFINITELY CLINTON

6% 6% 5% PROBABLY CLINTON

1% 2% 1% LEAN CLINTON

5% 4% DEFINITELY JOHNSON

3% 2% PROBABLY JOHNSON

* 1% LEAN JOHNSON

6% 9% 7% HARD UNDECIDED

2% 2% * NAMED OTHER

2% 2% 1% REFUSED

Cross tabs can be found here.

The poll surveyed 600 registered, likely voters (30% on cell phones) with a margin of error of +/- 4.00%. This survey was taken June 21-23, 2016.

Civitas conducts the only regular live-caller voting in North Carolina, and we are the only organization offering independent, nonpartisan data on current opinion. In the decade we’ve been conducting them, our polls have provided vital insights on what North Carolina voters truly think of the leaders and issues facing the state and nation. Civitas President Francis De Luca is available for interviews at or after the luncheon.

To arrange an interview, email Demi Dowdy at demi.dowdy@nccivitas.org or call 919.747.8064.

Founded in 2005, the Civitas Institute is a Raleigh, NC-based, 501(c)(3) nonprofit policy organization committed to creating a North Carolina whose citizens enjoy liberty and prosperity derived from limited government, personal responsibility and civic engagement. To that end, Civitas develops and advocates for conservative policy solutions to improve the lives of all North Carolinians.

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