Ah, it seemed like only weeks ago that you draftedas the third pitcher off the board. That’s because it was just weeks ago. I told you not to draft a pitcher until the seventh or eighth round because pitching is just too random, but you had to have Cain.

And he’s had two terrible outings heading into the All-Star break and an ERA over 5.00. So now I’m going to tell you …. not I told you so….but to hold onto (or go get) Matt Cain. I’ll wait, but if you don’t trust me, read on as to why you should.

In this week’s Scratching the Surface I will break down Cain’s season and what I view as his prospects for the second half of 2013. There have been concerns over possible bone chips or other “loose bodies” in Cain’s elbow. You should obviously monitor that situation, but I don’t think it has much to do with his performance. Let’s Scratch the Surface.

In the spring I told you that Matt Cain’s xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching – essentially his performance assuming a league average for fielding, ball park factors, and several other statistical yard sticks) last season was 3.82, above his ERA of 2.79. (That was identical to teammate Tim Lincecum’s xFIP, but Lincecum had a 5.18 ERA). In other words, they roughly actually pitched the same and that some luck would be shifting around in the 2013 season. So Cain’s struggles have not exactly surprised me.

Cain is not doing much differently this season; his velocity, ground ball/fly ball ratios, and his ability to make hitters swing and miss are all right in line with last season. What’s not exactly the same are his walk rates (up) infield fly ball rates (down) and the number of home runs he has allowed (up). In 2012, he walked 2.09 hitters per nine innings. This year it is 2.97 per nine. While still not a bad figure, it does mean he’s allowed about 11 more walks this season than he would have at this point last season. Hold that number there for a second.

His HR/FB rate (what percentage of fly balls are home runs) this season is 12.7 percent. Last season? 8.4 percent. He has given up 16 HR this season (but never more than 22 over a full season and 21 last year), but at the 8.4 percent rate, he would have surrendered just 10.5 HR this year. We’ll round up to 11. So if we take those five extra home runs and make them each solo HRs, his ERA would fall from 5.06 to 4.58. If they were all three-run HR, his ERA would be 3.85. You see where I’m going?

Of the 16 HR he has surrendered over 19 starts, 13 of them have come in five games where he surrendered multiple HR. In other words, he has surrendered home runs in nine of his 19 starts, but he’s given up three HR three times and a pair of HR twice this season. Four of those multiple HR games were on the road on HR-friendly parks (Wrigley Field, Coors Field, Miller Park and Chase Field.) Chase last season was the sixth best HR hitting park; this season Wrigley, Coors and Miller are three of the top four in the NL (Cain hasn’t pitched in Philadelphia yet this season) and in the top six of all of baseball.

AT&T Park, by the way, is the 28th best park for HR this season and was the best last season; Cain has yielded five long balls there this season. And, he has already been better for almost two months. He has not yielded a road HR since May 16.

A smaller factor is his infield fly ball percentage. He’s inducing a 7.1 percent IFFB% while his career average is about 12 percent. I view IFFB% as a semi-skill, as it’s fairly consistent from year to year. Cain has never been below double digits in a season, so he should improve on this. When you consider an infield fly is a virtual out, a five percent gap is not a small thing.

Of course, given his increased walk rate and that inability to induce infield flies, Cain might have had a mechanical issue in the first half. We can’t excuse him 100 percent and say his performance is simply because he’s pitched in small ball parks on the road. And that elbow issue cannot be forgotten.

But let’s go back to that xFIP figure to see what his ERA *should* be. Remember last season when his ERA was 2.79, his xFIP was 3.82. Well, in 2013, with a 5.06 ERA, his xFIP is 3.90.

So I’m buying Matt Cain for the second half. At 8K/9 IP pitching in a great pitcher’s park, I’m taking my chances that he will be a huge boost for my Fantasy team. Wouldn’t you take two-and-a-half months of a 3.50 ERA and about 100 strikeouts from Matt Cain? Play up his elbow issues and tell another owner you’d like to do a minor deal on a big risk. Offer a light hitting middle infielder for Cain, or a lesser starter and take the upgrade.

Unless that elbow flares up, Matt Cain will return to 2012 form any day now. And it should happen on your roster.