Kerala, with 20 Lok Sabha seats, might not seem to be crucial in the larger scheme of things for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, but it would present a fascinating contest of ideologies and narratives. With the burning Sabarimala issue in the backdrop, the Indian National Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is poised to bag majority of the seats this time around, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) more than likely to win a seat or two, if it plays its cards right. The biggest loser would of course be the Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF).

This is a radical change from the numbers many were expecting before the judgement of the Supreme Court on the Sabarimala issue in September last year. That gave a new life to the Congress, dooming the CPI(M).

Another issue that has further tarnished the state government’s image is the treatment of Chaitra John, the Deputy Commissioner of Police, who was taken to task for daring to raid a CPI(M) office to arrest the accused in a POSCO (Protection of Children from Sexual Offences) case.

UDF

A few months ago, the prospects for Congress were quite dim; there were fractious conflict among groups, the party lacked a permanent state president and was under pressure from UDF constituents. In fact, the Congress was forced to accede to the demand of the Kerala Congress (Mani) for a Rajya Sabha seat to get them back into the UDF fold. A few astute political commentators predicted a lapse into irrelevance for the party, with declining vote share and the rise of the BJP in the state.

A few months down the road, however, the Congress has renewed hope and vigour for itself as the Sabarimala issue has potentially mobilised Hindu voters in great numbers behind the party.

There is, however, trouble within the alliance, as the Muslim League, which holds Malappuram and Ponnani has claimed a third seat for itself — either of Wayanad, Vadakara or Kasargod and the Mani Congress, which already holds Kottayam claiming a second seat — either Chalakudy or Idukki. While it seems the Muslim League is willing to negotiate, P J Joseph, the number two in Kerala Congress (Mani), seems to be willing to split the party to achieve his aims. (The Kerala Congress is notorious for splitting — at one point, there were more than six parties named Kerala Congress). The Congress has opted to field all of its sitting members of Parliament (MPs) again, with the Muslims League also likely to do the same. The UDF currently holds 12 seats, and it is likely to retain them and win a few more. The final tally for the UDF could be around 15-17.

LDF

The CPI(M) leadership must be ruing its management of the Sabarimala issue, as it is sure to take a hit in this elections. The CPI(M) and LDF had a spectacular performance in the 2016 legislative assembly elections. The public image of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had significantly risen after his calm handling of the floods that had rocked the state in July-August months of 2018. That has taken a significant beating with the insensitive and abrasive handling of the Sabarimala issue by the Chief Minister and the state government generally.

The realisation seems to have hit home, with the Chief Minister remarking in November 2018 that the “government cannot favour social evils in fear of losing votes”. He may, however, have to rethink this in the face of a possible drubbing in the polls. While the Chief Minister had courted Vellapally Natesan, the secretary of Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP), the leading community organisation of the Ezhavas, the major Hindu caste in Kerala, it is unlikely to stem vote leakage to the Congress and BJP.



The party seems to hope that there will be a split of leaking votes from which it would benefit. The new constituents in the LDF, Loktantrik Janata Dal and Democratic Kerala Congress led by M P Veerandrakumar and Francis George respectively are bargaining for a seat each. This could potentially mean that the CPI(M) has to reduce the number of seats it will contest in, compared to 2014.

The LDF had campaigned in 2016 with the motto “LDF verum, ellam sheriyakum” (LDF will come, everything will be alright). The lustre of 2016 is missing in the campaign this time, with the state government being unable to attract significant investment projects into the state. The allegations of misuse of the Chief Minister’s Disaster Relief Fund have further accentuated the displeasure against the state government. The mass-firing of empanelled Kerala State Road Transport Corporation workers due to a Kerala High Court order has not won the LDF any friends on that front either.

The LDF has eight sitting seats currently; including two Independents in Innocent and Joice George. While Innocent has confirmed that he will not be contesting again, George is unlikely to be fielded again since he had been elected against the backdrop of the controversial Kasturirangan report from Idduki.



Much of the front’s success this time around will be dependent on candidate selection. The Kozhikode constituency was, for example, traditionally considered a strong seat for the CPI(M), but M K Raghavan from the Congress had bested them twice before. While the party leadership wants to field Mohammed Riaz, the national president of the CPI(M)’s youth wing, it was Riaz who Ragahvan had originally beat in 2009 with a margin of 838 votes. Riaz is a comparatively uninspired choice, considering there is a better candidate in the shape of A Pradeep Kumar, the sitting MLA of Kozhikode North, who won with almost 28,000 votes in 2016. Pradeep Kumar is, however, associated with the V S Achuthanandan faction, which has been sidelined ever since Pinrayi Vijayan became the Chief Minister. The final LDF tally could be between two-three seats.

NDA