Gruden can’t be fully judged as a head coach as long as he wears burgundy and gold. Wait, let’s rephrase that. If he makes the playoffs this season, then . . . wow. Congrats, Jay. You certainly did something right, given what you’re surrounded with, both above in the front office and below on the roster.

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More likely: If Washington fails to make the playoffs for what would be the fourth straight season, then Gruden almost certainly will be unemployed, and it will remain hard to judge him. He is an offensive-minded coach with limited offensive options, so start there. But more than that: It will be hard to judge him because how can you judge anyone working in this environment?

It’s odd. The season is a referendum on the coach and his future in this town but not really on the coach’s ability — either to lead or to strategize — going forward. That’s the upside of working for Washington in its current structure: Succeed and you’re doing so against odds understood by the rest of the league. Fail and, well, that’s what you were set up to do.

There’s a survival element to coaching in Ashburn, where under Snyder there have been four times as many head coaches as playoff victories — eight to two, if you’re keeping score at home. Some who leave here do so with their reputations irreparably harmed (Jim Zorn comes to mind). Others have an intact legacy damaged (that certainly would be Mike Shanahan and arguably Joe Gibbs). Others never again see the NFL (Steve Spurrier). Some (most?) remain bitter about their time here. (Imagine the back and forth Marty Schottenheimer, Norv Turner and Shanahan could have over a couple of beverages.)

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Gruden’s job, entering a season in which his team is a far more popular pick to finish last in the NFC East than it is to reach the postseason, in part is to stand there and act as if everything’s normal. He has plenty of practice doing just that.

“I think you get more comfortable [with] better people you have surrounding you,” he said during the preseason. “I feel really good about the people we’ve surrounded myself with, coaches and players alike.”

That could well be true. But there are an increasing number of data points that indicate that the coaches and the players here change but the results don’t. Since the turn of the century, just three NFL franchises have failed to win at least 11 games in a season: Buffalo, Cleveland and, you guessed it, Washington.

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A random generator should be able to produce one 11-win season in 19 years. Shoot, Washington’s NFC East rivals — Philadelphia, Dallas and the New York Giants — have combined for 15 over that span. New England has done it 15 times by itself since 2000.

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But Washington, and by extension Gruden, doesn’t even have the benefit of randomly lucking into success. Success is suppressed in Ashburn at every turn. A two-decade run of seasons in which the results bottom out at terrible and crest only at mediocre means this isn’t just about coaching. Eight guys have had the chance. None has pushed through to win 11 games even once. None has been able to go to the playoffs in consecutive seasons.

Consider the turmoil that has marked Gruden’s time here, none of his own making. A year into Gruden’s tenure, Snyder and his slithery top lieutenant, Bruce Allen, hired a respected and established football evaluator — albeit one with a history of personal problems — to oversee the roster-building aspect of the operation. Scot McCloughan’s arrival was met with optimism, but his departure after just two seasons was tawdry, filled with ugly, anonymous accusations about McCloughan’s personal conduct.

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Gruden was left to coach through it.

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Last year, in what was heralded as a monumental shift for the franchise, Snyder hired a new executive to oversee the business side of the operation. One of Brian Lafemina’s first moves — and unquestionably his boldest — was to label the team’s legendary waiting list for season tickets for what it was: nothing short of a farce. Poof, it was gone. This was an honest dealing with a wounded fan base, a pledge to win back those it had lost — which meant a significant departure for the team under Snyder’s direction.

Lafemina lasted less than eight months before he, too, was fired. Much of his staff followed him out the door. Allen thus consolidated his power again, overseeing both football and business.

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Gruden was left to coach through it.

So here he is, on the cusp of season No. 6, uncharted territory under Snyder. He enters the season with a quarterback, Case Keenum, who joins his fourth team in four years, meaning if there are early-season struggles, the calls for rookie Dwayne Haskins probably will be audible. With the Eagles in Week 1 and the Cowboys in Week 2 and the Giants in Week 4 — followed by what everyone would assume would be an unwinnable game against New England in Week 5 — the division race could take shape early, and it might not be pretty.

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Gruden, though, will coach through it.

How long will he last? Impossible to say from here. Just know that whatever happens, the full picture of Jay Gruden as a head coach, whatever that may look like, will be out of focus until he leaves Washington. This is a big season for Gruden’s career here. But it can’t fully shape his reputation because the environment in which he works is warped, unlike any other in the league. Clock management? Play selection? Sure, those are his choices. Just don’t judge him on things for which he is not responsible — which, around here, include the overall results.