12,000 more Iowa GOP voters were expected than showed for the Straw Poll - a rejection of the field? Does the low turnout and surprising finish of Gov. Mike Huckabee signal an end to a generation of strident anti-abortion politics?

There were 12,000 winners of the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames this weekend, those being the 12,000 GOP voters that were expected to attend but didn't, according to Iowa Independent, possibly signaling what many other polls report, they aren't excited about the entire GOP field. Most Americans are paying little attention to the Iowa results, so won't know that the media generated from this event is the result of a tiny number (14,302) of votes being cast. For those people who are paying attention, questions about the validity of an event like this are paramount.

One other outcome could be that the strident anti-abortion politics of the far right is put in check. Low turnout events, like the State Fair Straw Poll, are tailor made for single-issue candidates and causes, and in fact were the strategic vehicle the far-right used to take over many moderate GOP precincts and eventually state parties starting in the late 1970's and 1980's. That the abortion issue became so prominent leading up to this event and yet the anti-abortion movement's Chief Inquisitor, Sam Brownback, couldn't muster more than 2192 votes, speaks volumes.

The surprisingly low turnout, half of what was expected, makes this event all the more questionable as a way to sort the field, especially given that much of the field wasn't playing along: Rudy Giuliani and John McCain made it clear they weren't spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to get a couple thousand votes. Fred "can I be president without running" Thompson, says he'll be in Iowa next week and Newt "show a little leg" Gingrich was at the straw poll speaking, but not yet on the ballot.

Romney, who spent $2 million for just over 4000 votes walks away the expected winner. The only way Romney could have made real news in Iowa was by losing after all the money he spent. But his home town newspaper, the Boston Globe, uses the word "trounces" in the headline and talks about the vote in percentage terms without mentioning that the total number of voters would only fill one-third of Fenway Park.

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Mike Huckabee is the real winner, to the extent there is a "winner", because his campaign spent almost nothing, talked about a broad range of issues and got more votes than the single issue candidates. Mike Huckabee may have found Cinderella's slipper at the State Fair in Ames. As an ordained minister with a more prevention oriented anti-abortion message combined with support for improved maternal health care and child support, he may represent a new, more moderate wave of anti-abortion politics. His campaign style is clearly more positive and he more likable than many anti-abortion candidates.

Sam Brownback, wildly spinning what has to be a disappointing, and expensive, third place finish, claims that he is now "clearly in the top tier" — true if he is talking about the Ames straw poll which is now over. In every other poll, he's still in the bottom tier and those polls don't punish people for not coming to the State Fair, as Iowa Republicans did McCain, Giuliani and Thompson.

Brownback was all abortion all the time, using the most negative campaign tactics and spending aggressively to take on Romney on this one issue. His third place finish, seriously calls into question the effectiveness of abortion-only politics moving forward.

Putting an end to a generation of the most vitriolic anti-abortion, anti-woman, anti-contraception and anti-sex campaigning, which corresponded with a rise in the personalization of politics and a lowering of civil discourse, would make the national political dialog the biggest winner of the Ames Straw Poll.

Like Brownback, Tom Tancredo parlayed single issue focus, immigration, into a State Fair top tier finish, so Brownback and Tancredo can leave the Iowa State Fair feeling like 4H King and Queen. At the end of the day they are both politicos and have to realize the money didn't buy the love they needed, and that people in Iowa and the rest of the country expect more than single issue focus from people who want to be President.

For the record, here are the results from the GOP Iowa State Fair Poll at which "voters" paid $35 to vote, and were wined, dined and transported by the candidates:

Mitt Romney

4516

31.5%

Mike Huckabee

2587

18.1%

Sam Brownback

2192

15.3%

Tom Tancredo

1961

13.7%

Ron Paul

1305

9.1%

Tommy Thompson

1039

7.3%

Fred Thompson (not announced, not campaigning)

203

1.4%

Rudy Giuliani (did not actively participate)

183

1.3%

Duncan Hunter 174

1.2%

John McCain (did not actively participate)

101

1.0%

John Cox 41 0.1% (???)

14,302 Total Votes

26,000 Total Tickets Sold