Our N.F.L. simulator gives the Patriots an enviable 84 percent chance of getting the No. 1 seed in the A.F.C., which comes with home-field advantage until the Super Bowl. They have a 98 percent chance of finishing as one of the top two seeds, which comes with a first-round bye

Why are the Patriots in such good shape even though they lead both the Broncos and Bengals by only one game? There are two main reasons:

First, the Patriots hold the tiebreaker over the Bengals. So the Bengals need to finish ahead of New England, not merely tied, which will happen only if the Bengals gain two games on the Patriots in the last three games. And that can happen only if the Patriots go 1-2 in their last three games, against the Titans, Jets and Dolphins — none of which are likely to make the playoffs (although the Jets are 8-5). Even if New England did go 1-2, the Bengals would have to go 3-0 despite the absence of Andy Dalton, their injured quarterback.

Second, the Broncos have two tough games in the next two weeks. The Broncos hold the tiebreaker over the Patriots and therefore need to gain only one game. But Denver must play this week at Pittsburgh, which looks like one of the N.F.L.’s best teams now that Ben Roethlisberger is back from an injury. The following week, the Broncos host the 10-3 Bengals — which also ensures that one of the two will lose at least one of their last three games (barring ties).

The Patriots’ fan guide to this Sunday is simple: At 1 p.m. Eastern, root for your team to beat the 3-10 Titans. At 4 p.m. Eastern, root for Pittsburgh to beat Denver — and if you want to get greedy, also hope that the hobbled Bengals somehow lose on the road to the 49ers, even though San Francisco has the fitting record of 4-9.