It’s a risk-on for Hump Day, but blink and you’ll miss it. Take a stroll around Wall Street or go to the bathroom and you could miss it.

That’s because stocks are prone to shilly-shallying these days, though fresh trade optimism could put a stop to all that.

Even hedge fund pioneer Paul Tudor Jones thinks 2019 may be better for traders than long-term investors, as he told a conference earlier this week that could turn into “just an enormously volatile period with a lot of back and forth.” Covering pretty much all the bases, the ‘87 crash predictor also forecast a 15% move either way from here for stocks.

There may be a little more conviction in our call of the day, from DoubleLine founder Jeff Gundlach, who told clients Tuesday evening that the S&P 500 could take out February’s 2018 low due to a growth slowdown hitting company profits.

“Many equity markets are down over 20%, which some people call a bear market,” Gundlach said in his latest webcast, according to Reuters. “I don’t really define bear markets as a certain fixed arbitrary percentage. I think of it more as mood. And certainly, the setup for the equity markets looked like a bear market going into the middle of this year…the global equity market which is strongly in a bear market at the present time.”

Bottom line, his mood is still bearish, considering he warned us in November that stocks still hadn’t hit a “panic low.” Some in Twitterland credited Gundlach for stirring up some action on S&P 500 futures overnight:

But what next for 2019 remains a pretty good question, especially if only the day traders are going to get anything out of it, if Tudor Jones is right.

Last word goes to Michael O’Rourke, JonesTrading’s chief market strategist, who says the “hollow victories” markets have been carving out go beyond trade and tariffs, and are more about “global superiority.”

“Therefore, it is better to be patient and wait for a resolution, or for the market to re-rate to a lower level where attractive valuations merit the risk. Despite the numerous headwinds facing the equity market right now and for the foreseeable future, the S&P 500 is only down 1.4% year to date,” he says.

Last, last word goes to Reddit, where a reader wants to know why it’s “safe” to assume stocks will rise over the next 40 years. He gets plenty of answers.

The market

The S&P SPX, -2.37% and Dow DJIA, -1.92% and Nasdaq COMP, -3.01% have gone flying out of the gatei.

Crude US:CLF9 was well up ahead of supply data, while the dollar DXY, +0.01% is steady, but watch the pound GBPUSD, +0.13% as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May could be toppled within hours in a confidence vote over her Brexit plan.

Check out the Market Snapshot column for the latest action.

Europe SXXP, -0.90% is moving up nicely and the Nikkei NIK, -1.10% helped lead a big bounce in Asia.

Read: Will EU treat Italy more leniently as France’s Macron risks breaching fiscal rules?

The quote

Jack Bogle Daniel Burke

“Investors are not paying nearly enough attention to the risks that could affect our markets: an unstable U.S. federal government, a Brexit debacle, and a U.S. stock market that remains at relatively high valuations.” — That was Vanguard’s 89-year old founder and investing legend Jack Bogle, in an interview with Financial News.

The chart

Our chart of the day offers a glimpse of what a tough year it’s been for the oil market, compliments of Barclays. In their 2019 outlook, analysts predict oil WTI will average $65 a barrel, about a 23% jump from current levels. Brent is forecast to rise to $72, which is just over $10 higher from current levels.

“Given our expectation of OPEC+ producer reductions and a new phase of Iran waivers by May, we believe that prices will rebound in December and next year,” says a team of analysts led by Michael Cohen.

The buzz

Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou was granted bail by a Canadian judge on Tuesday after more than a week in detention, though she has to foot the bill for a security detail, wear a monitoring device and surrender passports. In an interview with Reuters, POTUS said he’d intervene on her behalf if it means saving a trade deal.

Read: How one investor’s Amazon misfire led to a 99% loss in his trading account

LionAir says it’s getting ready to scrap $22 billion in Boeing BA, -3.58% orders, over dissatisfaction in how the airline handled the crash of a 737 Max jet that killed all 189 aboard.

Chinese government spies weren’t only behind a Marriott MAR, -2.68% cyberattack, but went after health insurers and security clearance files of millions of Americans, says a new report.

Chinese music streamer Tencent Music TME, -1.40% will make its U.S. debut later, after pricing its IPO at the low end of forecasts.

Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian tells MarketWatch about his biggest money mistake, and what he thinks about frequent-flier miles

Consumer prices were bang in line with expectations, with core prices up 0.2%, headline prices flat. The Federal budget is data later.

Random reads

A gunman who killed three at a Christmas market in Strasbourg, France, remains at large

What we Googled in 2018

It’s sentencing day for Michael Cohen

3-year old faces Christmas in hospital after pharma giant won’t budge on drug

A 4.4 magnitude quake rattled eastern Tennessee early Wednesday

Nothing sacred in Seth Meyer’s Christmas “Ya Burnt” special

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