It takes a pretty prodigious talent to make your professional debut before you’re even allowed to legally drink. Aged just 16 years and 341 days old, Thibaut Courtois made his first appearance for Genk in the Belgian Jupiler League, going on to play a vital role in their 2010-11 season, keeping 14 clean sheets on the way to the title.

It’s even more impressive when you consider that as a goalkeeper – as many on this page will be familiar with – youthfulness is often a weakness; inexperience and perceived physical/mental strength a target for opponents. How many of you can recall a time where part of your pre-match team talk revolved around exploiting that? I feel it will ring some bells.

Even now, at a relatively young 25, it seems as though Courtois has been talked about as world class for such a long time. It’s testament to his ability that he was able to put himself on the map so early and continue to impress at each subsequent step up.

His achievements can’t just be considered in terms of his clean sheet record or his trophies (of which there are a lot). It’s perhaps the more intangible aspects of his career that speak the most for him. In his three year stint at Atletico de Madrid, not only did he fill the boots of their wonderkid David De Gea, but probably stretched them out just a little bit more for Jan Oblak to adopt afterwards. Even more significantly, Courtois showed enough quality to relegate Chelsea legend Petr Cech to the deputy’s role and, ultimately, finding another club.

Courtois showed his talent on the way to winning the Premier League in 2014. He gave vindication to Jose Mourinho’s decision to drop Cech and showed fans why he had been snapped up and held close for so many years before. It should come as no surprise then, that Europe’s biggest clubs want his signature. Perennial talent-hunters Real Madrid as well as regularly cash-flashers PSG are among the mooted destinations. Madrid seems the most likely of the two, but nonetheless the interest has combined with Chelsea contract talks to result in some serious wages offerings on the table to stay with the Blues – some sources going as far as to say it would make him the highest paid keeper in the world.

Now, I’ve painted a pretty strong picture of Courtois so far – the child prodigy turned two-time Premier League winner must be worth his salt, right?

Well, for me, no.

As a Chelsea fan, I balked at the sums we were willing to pay to keep Courtois at the Club. Yes, it’s not my money, but I don’t think he has a legitimate claim to being in the top 3 in the League – never mind the World. Courtois is a long way from the top right now – so let’s take a look at where it’s just not clicking for him.

1. Distribution

Over this past year, it’s become more and more obvious that Courtois hasn’t developed to fulfill the demands that the modern game places on Goalkeeper’s abilities to retain possession. Conte has evidently instructed his team to play out a lot more – this season in particular, you’ll often see outside centre backs almost parallel to Courtois from kick off, ready to receive and start the offensive phase of play.

That’s fine. On a personal level (perhaps influenced by my inability to kick long) I prefer it. But for reasons outside the bounds of this post, the ball often ends up getting recycled back to the keeper. At this point – it’s usually kicked long, and with the rest of the team set up to transfer the ball through lines, it’s lost. This completely defeats the purpose of playing it short to begin with.

Even worse, it can result in a shot on target seconds later. For example, take the picture below: In this snapshot, Courtois has just played the ball out to the centre back who has swiftly played it back. All from a goal kick.

Now – we can see City pressing high so you firstly question the decision to play short, but as the scene develops, we see all of Courtois’ limitations from his feet.

Look at his body shape – he makes life difficult for himself by having such a closed body shape. For me this is rule 1 of receiving the ball as a goalkeeper – you have to be in a position to see both sides of the pitch and allow yourself to play first time either side.

This angle is fantastic, because we can see the options that are open to Courtois if he has his head up – Fabregas stands in space, and Alonso has his hand up on the left flank as an out ball. That’s how you play out of a high press.

Now, compare what actually happens:

Courtois doesn’t release the ball until he’s closed down – Jesus see his charge-down deflected just a metre wide of the post.

Compare this to Ederson, who this year has revolutionised how the Premier League sees the role of the goalkeeper in possession phases. I’ve tried to find a similar situation and this is a good example of the difference. In the screenshot below, the ball is played back to Ederson from the wing by his centre back – he’s then pressed by Napoli’s 14 (in light blue).

Admittedly, he has a bit more time on the ball – but the open body shape allows him to see the entire pitch – 3 napoli players have pressed into this corner which inevitably means that they are short on cover elsewhere. What happens next?

Ederson has the composure to take a touch knowing exactly what his next move is – clipping a long ball into a free man on the other wing. No shot to save or quick recovery required. Here’s another clip of another way Ederson calmy plays through an aggressive press – this could be compared to Courtois playing into Fabregas in our first snapshot.

I’m not even as calm as Ederson is here and I’m sat at home on my sofa in my dressing gown. pic.twitter.com/fxfImG0uLx — David Preece (@davidpreece12) February 3, 2018

The stats seem to support this – particularly in my comparison with Ederson. For the graphic learners among us: have a look at these graphs taken from whoscored.com:

The colour block to consider is the green segments – this is the ‘other’ forms of distribution not including from hands or goal kicks – therefore largely in open play after receiving the ball. Courtois sees 31% of his go astray. Ederson sees just 11% unsuccessful. That’s a massive disparity. In general, Courtois has a distribution success rate of 72% compared to 87% of Ederson.Yes, retaining the ball is not just the responsibility of the goalkeeper, but the decision making, communication and execution doesn’t seem to be there with Courtois. It goes without saying that Guardiola’s belief in ‘total football’ and the goalkeeper playing an active role in possession attributes to the greater success and opportunity, but it’s also revealing that Guardiola has never been linked with Courtois during his career. We can see why.

In my opinion, this ability to distribute is what will increasingly separate the good goalkeepers from the World Class ones. It’s not about the technical ability to kick accurately with both feet (although Courtois is notably weaker on his right foot) or to hit a sidewinder from box to box, but instead the mental ability to stay calm and composed under the press of opponents, with the vision and awareness to play one touch in front of everyone else and effectively recycle possession.

2. Anticipation over Reaction

This is a tricky one to work around, because in my experience a lot of this section ties in with intangible and unobservable psychological qualities such as confidence and mentality that there’s little evidence to support my points. To a certain extent then, this is speculation – but I hope to bring you a strong enough argument that i’m sure you’ll identify with to make up for it.

In the last few games in particular, Courtois’ anticipation of shots has become a major issue, possibly costing him two absolutely massive goals.

First, Messi in the first leg of the Champions League:

Second, Silva in City’s complete domination of the Blues at the Etihad:

Note in both scenarios that Courtois has anticipated and gambled on the direction of his dive by the time the ball has struck. In both cases I think he makes the wrong choice.

There’s a good time to gamble – that’s when the distance and reaction time between the goalkeeper and the striker is tiny and the odds are against you – perhaps 30:70 or less. Alternatively, as Courtois showed us, when the striker only has one realistic option in terms of direction for the shot.

In my view however both the clips above are examples of a bad time to gamble. That’s my general rule – be reactive to shots rather than anticipating and trying to guess, as many of the conscious and subconscious mental cues we use to make up our mind can be easily manipulated by a high standard of player.

By going so early, I think Courtois doesn’t do himself justice. In the Messi example, by the time the ball is struck Courtois is firmly committed to his left – but I think we would back the big Belgian if he stays set and waits to react – it’s far enough out to give him enough time to react. It looks like he’s set – but as the ball is struck Courtois plants his left foot as he begins the dive.

Edit: r/chelseafc made me think of another point here – when Messi strikes the ball Suarez and a Chelsea defender have blocked off the right side of the goal – that means even less reason to gamble to that side as Messi simply cant see much of it. Thanks to xx-whizking-xx for a great point.

The Silva goal is a little bit more difficult, because in many ‘cutback’ scenarios the goalkeeper is a heavy underdog, so a gamble seems like the best course of action to take. However, part of assessing the odds is thinking about the flight of the ball in, the speed, the foot of the attacker and how tightly he is being marked. This all impacts the effectiveness of Silva’s finish. If Courtois had quickly moved across the goal and stood up more without gambling to his low left, in this example it seems more than likely that he stays upright and catches the ball.

In my mind, no one blames the goalkeeper if Silva scores from that position, as it’s sufficiently close that reactions become difficult if the connection is good. But by standing up and staying set, as many modern goalkeepers are encouraged to do, Courtois would have given himself more of a chance to react to anything going straight or to his right, whilst being capable of stopping something to his left as well. In reality, Chelsea conceded what looked like a very soft goal – ultimately the only goal in a 1-0 loss.

This may seem overly critical, but it’s indicative of his potential quality that these points are being considered. Is it form? Confidence? You can speculate a lot. For me however, he just doesn’t seem the same player as he was at Atletico on loan or in his first season back at Chelsea. A fabulously gifted player yes – but seems low on confidence needed to take him back up into contention for being the world’s best.

It’s these saves at 1-0 and 0-0 in massive games where the world class players justify their wages. You can’t help but think of De Gea, making saves against Arsenal and Sevilla for example, and wonder if he would be more likely to keep both attempts out.

And so, we go back to my previous lament:

As a Chelsea fan, I balked at the sums we were willing to pay to keep Courtois at the Club. Yes, it’s not my money, but I don’t think he has a legitimate claim to being in the top 3 in the League – never mind the World.

As a coach, I try to deliver sessions based on what I believe the goalkeeper will need to succeed in the modern game. That may not mean the game now, especially for younger players, but the game that will come to be in several years time. To a certain extent therefore, short of foresight it means guesstimating as to what that modern game will look like.

I firmly believe the athletic, 11th outfielder types of goalkeepers are creating the new mould for goalkeeping. Courtois is just another example of a more traditional keeper who is struggling to adapt – Cech and Hart are two other examples. The best goalkeepers in the world are going to be judged on their abilities in possession phases as well as the out of possession phases that we’ve come to strongly associate goalkeeping with – the saves, the claims, the interceptions etc. As such, for Courtois to re-stake his claim as one of the world’s best, he must change his ability to effectively recycle possession and, when it comes to it, believe more in his natural talent to hold his position and react to shots, rather than guessing and hoping. This decision making will cost teams points during the season – at the best teams in the world, that means costing leagues, cups and records.

What do you think? Is Courtois world class? Is he going to get there? Leave a comment or get involved in the conversation on Twitter.

Coaching Thought:

If you’re struggling with these sorts of areas, how can you work on them?

A lot of goalkeepers struggle with distribution. If your issue is technique, you’ve got to practice. Watch videos, read things online and talk to people. Find out what technique works for them and take a ball down to a park and practice.

If your weakness is playing short, i’d recommend playing 5 a side or 7 a side. Find a recreational team and play outfield – it will help develop your ability on the ball massively. Most effective position would be in defense or the base of midfield – where you can see the whole game in front of you. Also: ball and a wall. A timeless solo practice.

If you’re having trouble anticipating shots, you need to take a step back from it all and simplify your decision making. In training, make sure you implement it. Try to imagine your body still and balanced as a shot is hit, and visualise stepping into the line of the ball. Try and get your server to catch you out – if they see you ‘cheating’ and anticipating, get them to serve into the area you’ve sacrificed. Avoid training sessions where the direction of the ball is predetermined – If you know where the ball is going before it’s even struck, this begins to reframe the perceptions and understanding of our mental and visual cues – we have to practice our decision making as well as the technical execution of saves.