Despite a barrage of bad headlines, lagging poll numbers and mounting evidence that she's in a dogfight with Bernie Sanders, Democratic insiders overwhelmingly think Hillary Clinton would win Iowa and New Hampshire if the contests were held this week.

That's the assessment of this week's POLITICO Caucus, our weekly bipartisan survey of the top strategists, activists and operatives in the two early-voting states.


Driving the high degree of confidence in Clinton's chances is a belief that her field organization is too formidable for Sanders to overcome. "Best campaign infrastructure ever built," said an uncommitted New Hampshire Democrat. "They can overcome any deficit."

Both in Iowa and New Hampshire, eight out of 10 Democrats surveyed said Clinton would win if the contests were held this week. Those responses come even as the Vermont senator pushed past Clinton in an Iowa poll released Thursday, something he has already done in New Hampshire.

"Although the polls say otherwise right now, I think Hillary will win the primary," a New Hampshire Democrat said. "It is still early, she retooled her campaign to better reflect her authenticity, trustworthiness and exceptional qualifications. Polls have been proven wrong, especially in NH!"

But, cautioned another Granite State Democrat who selected Clinton, "Sanders continues to gain momentum with the most ardent primary goers -- they will definitely show up to vote. If the Clinton camp doesn't get their collective act together she can easily lose this primary. Also, if O'Malley catches a bit of fire or Biden gets in, all bets are off. Bernie's support is rock solid. The rest will divide the votes as they all pull from the same establishment voters."

While few insiders discounted the polls, or the notion that Sanders is riding a wave of momentum, some hold the view that Sanders has peaked, and that the organization, money and historic nature of the Clinton campaign still position the former secretary of state best for when voters actually head to the polls.

"Sanders is nearing his plateau," an uncommitted Iowa Democrat said. "Hillary still has room to grow - I can't see the people holding out for Biden switching all the way to Sanders. I think a lot of caucus vets are holding out, waiting for the event where they will get their one on one moment with Hillary, their three minutes on their pet issue. About mid-November, they'll realize it is not going to happen this time, because those moments are reserved this cycle in this campaign for Real Voters not county chairs. They may quietly resent it, but not enough to make them caucus for someone else."

Clinton has been under heavy scrutiny all summer over her email practices while at the State Department, which triggered the interest of the FBI and which ultimately led the former secretary of state to finally offer an unqualified apology this week. But Democratic insiders suggested the controversy wouldn't make a tangible dent in her support when it comes down to the actual casting of ballots.

"I have never been more positive that HRC will be President. Even the press is sick of hearing themselves talk about email," an Iowa Democrat said.

Seventeen percent of Democratic respondents overall said Sanders would win if the contests were this week, but even some of those insiders said they ultimately see Clinton winning.

"This is when insurgent challengers (Howard Dean, Bill Bradley, etc.) generally have their day in the sun in New Hampshire, so if the primary were held this week Sanders would probably win," said one Granite State Democrat. "But it's not this week. When it is held in early 2016, I expect Hillary Clinton will win."

Added an Iowa Democrat, "Right now, he has momentum which can't be tracked in a poll and if he does well in Iowa and he has the momentum coming out of Iowa it [could] become a ripple effect. But it isn't February yet."

A New Hampshire Democrat who said it's a toss-up between Clinton and Sanders, described the Democratic race this way: "Bernie is legitimately ahead in two recent and credible polls in NH, but...his margin is not large. This is where campaigns can make the difference. Clinton's team is super-organized, and has veterans who know where every last vote is. Sanders' field and GOTV aren't nearly as well established. In a close race this counts, so if it were today: tossup."

On the Republican side, pointing to the polls, the vast majority in both early states agreed that Donald Trump would win their contests if they were held this week. In New Hampshire, nine out of 10 GOP insiders said Trump would be the victor. In Iowa, the numbers were lower -- 75 percent of insiders thought Trump would win. The results revealed Ben Carson's strength in Iowa -- a quarter of Iowa GOP insiders said he would win if the caucuses were held today. In New Hampshire, none of the insiders cast a vote for Carson.

“It's September and he's lapped all the other candidates in the polls at least once -- - scarier than a Stephen King movie!” a New Hampshire Republican said of Trump.

Others, even as they said Trump would win this week, were more sanguine about his long-term prospects.

"But it's not being held this week," noted a New Hampshire Republican. "Thank God. I am still confident he will be taken down before voters go to the polls. Yes, he's already lasted longer than expected. But 6 more months of this? Hard to see."

Added another Granite State Republican, "Cannot deny the poll- right now he would win and probably easily- but when the electorate votes it will have taken a much harder, more decisive look at the candidates and no poll can model that result now."

An Iowa Republican attributed Trump’s stature in the polls right now to the “overwhelming” media coverage of him, but expects that will get old.

“At a certain point, we will see voters turn the channel, and cable news directors will follow,” the Iowa insider said. “Manufactured controversy and self-obsessed celebrity will give way to the seriousness of electing a president. Voters will take over (thankfully) and the field will start to settle into a process that is less poll-driven. What will happen when Trump's numbers start to soften? What happens when it becomes clear he will lose a state?

“How he reacts to political failure will be telling. When he has to answer questions about his plane being repossessed by the banks. When he has to acknowledge that his company has hired hundreds -- maybe thousands -- of illegal immigrants. He will implode at some point. It might take months, but it is a certitude.”





Insiders expect Bush, Christie and Fiorina will try to take down Trump in the GOP debate

Jeb Bush is the candidate most likely to take on Trump -- and damage him -- in the GOP primary debate next week, according to the bulk of insiders on both sides of the aisle. Among Republicans, 44 percent of New Hampshire insiders said that was the case, while 20 percent of Iowans offered that assessment. Iowa Republicans were evenly divided between Bush, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina in guessing who would most aggressively, and successfully, challenge Trump, while 40 percent of Democrats overall pointed to Bush.

"Someone has to call BS on Trump and Bush is doing it," an unaligned Granite State Republican said. "Right on policy, and good politics too: It appeals to the 60% of voters who would never vote for Trump under any circumstances."

A New Hampshire Democrat, one of the 40 percent of Democrats who named Bush, added: "At this point, Bush probably has the most to lose if the Trump surge continues. Plus, he desperately needs to show some passion and some mettle. Trump has totally eclipsed Walker as well but Walker doesn't have the smarts or the confidence to take him on - any attack is more likely to blow up in his face, like Boris and Natasha trying to take out Rocky the Squirrel."

Twenty percent of Iowa Republicans, and 21 percent of Granite State Republicans, pointed to Christie as the likeliest aggressor.

"Christie has nothing to lose and can land an effective left hook on the hair," said one Iowa Republican.

"Christie's ship has sailed and he won't be the nominee let alone POTUS," said another Hawkeye State Republican. "About all he can do is reclaim the title of chief straight talker, calling out Trump for what he is, helping the Party, and maybe himself down the road."

Said a third Iowa Republican who named Christie: "He is about to lose his place on the big stage, and if he does, there goes the money and any hope to make a comeback. He has the ability and demonstrated against Rand he's not afraid to throw punches."

Equal numbers of Iowa and New Hampshire Republicans said Fiorina was the best bet for successfully tussling with Trump.

"Even though Trump survived the Megyn Kelly fracas, you still have to think that he will come off as a bully (or maybe immature) if Carly pins him down on issues and he responds by calling her schoolyard names," a Granite State Republican said.

Agreed another New Hampshire Republican, "I think Carly really could do some damage and she should attack him as anti-woman."

But, cautioned several insiders, it's not at all clear that any attacks will stick to Trump -- after all, they haven't so far.

"The real question really is, who will be Trump's kryptonite as so far he has survived more than any traditional candidate could," a New Hampshire Republican said. "Jeb has continued to send smoke signals that he is going to be the one to take on Trump, but like the Teflon Don, attacks are just deflecting off him in a staggering way that no other candidate understands."

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus (not all of whom participated this week):

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.

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