Three new polls published over the weekend have shown Labour’s support climb to 31-2%, higher than the 30.4% Ed Miliband achieved in May 2015.

Two polls, from Opinium and ORB, had Labour’s support on 32%, while a third from YouGov had the party on 31%. In all three polls, the party trailed the Tories by double figures.

Given widespread predictions of a total collapse in the Labour vote, should Corbyn actually deliver more votes than Ed Miliband it would prove hugely embarrassing for those who have attacked him as ‘unelectable’ over the past two years.

After the intense and in many ways unprecedented media scrutiny Corbyn has faced as leader, the incredible lengths to which his own party has gone to undermine him, the result would be remarkable – even if insufficient to form a government. It would surely prompt the need for much deeper reflections of the party’s situation, the long-term shrinking in its electoral base, and a more serious strategy for renewal than simply shouting ‘Corbyn out’ louder each summer.

It may not only be Ed Miliband that Corbyn outperforms, based on current polling. In fact, Ed Miliband secured more votes in England in 2015 than Tony Blair in 2005, by a small margin, and outmatched Gordon Brown’s 2010 England result by over a million votes. If the polls are to be believed, and Corbyn’s performance matches or improves on the three opinions polls this weekend, he might actually secure more Labour votes south of the border than any of the party’s previous leaders in the last three General Elections.

That said, because of the huge surge in Tory support since the EU Referendum, and the way in which the Labour vote is distributed across the country, the party could still lose a large number of seats. In many Labour-held seats, the UKIP vote, or a chunk of the UKIP vote, being added to the Conservatives’ 2015 result will be enough to take the seat from Labour.

While those on the Left have been pondering a ‘Progressive Alliance’ (a pact which would only work in only a very small handful of seats, at a large cost), in 2017 we may yet be defeated by a ‘Regressive Alliance’ of UKIP-Tory switchers, and UKIP standing down in Labour-held seats.

The gap between Corbyn’s Labour and Theresa May’s Conservatives appears to be propped up largely by UKIP voters abandoning their party to support May, confident in her plans to deliver a Brexit that they want to see.

There are also fears among some Labour supporters that UKIP’s decision not to contest dozens of Labour seats will see almost all their 2015 vote go to the Conservatives. Yet an analysis of UKIP dropping out of seats in local elections in 2013 and 2017 has shown that while their votes tended to go to the Conservatives, they did split between the other parties. The analysis, by Elections Etc, found that on average in the local elections the swing from Labour to Conservatives since 2013 in places where UKIP stood both times was 6.7 points, and in places where UKIP dropped out it was 6.7. In other words, the UKIP candidate dropping out had little to no effect.

Elsewhere this weekend, Emily Thornberry put in a strong performance on Marr, exposing Conservative Defence Secretary Michael Fallon for having attended a reception celebrating Bashar al-Assad’s election in 2007, while Labour have announced £37bn of spending on the NHS over the course of the next parliament, and unveiled a ‘Robin Hood Tax’ to raise revenue from financial transactions and speculation.

Labour have now enjoyed a few good days in the media spotlight. Since the leaking of the party’s manifesto, the ideas have been widely covered in print and broadcast media. The manifesto is simple to explain on the doorstep too. Labour will provide the funds to rebuild the NHS, create a National Education Service from cradle to grave, protect your rights at work and invest in our economy – and we’ll pay for it only by taxing those who earn over £80,000 a year and big corporations.

The task over the next four weeks is to get out on the doorsteps and explain that to as many people as possible.