Going into the 2014-15 season the national consensus was that the SEC West contained the best teams in college football. Auburn coming off a loss in the final BCS National Championship game last season to Florida State was a strong favorite to make the inaugural College Football playoffs this year. Alabama was also considered a virtual lock at shot and Texas A&M with an outside shot to be in there. Heading into the home stretch a couple teams from Mississippi have completely turned the SEC West on its head.

Because of the overall competitiveness, the SEC West has the potential to actually end with four teams tied for the division lead, which could potentially knock everyone out of the College Football Playoff causing the SEC West 2-Loss Circle of Doom.

While the likeliness of four SEC West teams finishing with two losses each is a good possibility, the team that does come out of the tie-breaker would be considered favorites against the SEC East Champion. Let’s take a look at how we could end up with these crazy final standings in the SEC West.

The four teams involved are Mississippi State (9-0), Alabama (8-1), Auburn (7-2) and Ole Miss (8-2).

Currently Mississippi State is in the driver’s seat. Holding firmly to the #1 ranking in the country and the only team in the SEC undefeated. They have only played one of other three teams in the Circle of Doom. Mississippi State beat Auburn on October 11th, 38-23. They still have Alabama on the road on Saturday, Vanderbilt at home on Nov., 22nd and Ole Miss on the road in the Egg Bowl on Nov., 29th to complete the regular season. Mississippi State would have to lose at Alabama and Ole Miss and beat Vanderbilt to finish 10-2. Both Alabama and Ole Miss are not easy wins on the road; Vandy should get rolled over by the Bulldogs. Ole Miss leads the all-time series 61–43–6, but has only won one of the last five Egg Bowls.

Alabama also has only played one of the three other Circle of Doom participants, losing at Ole Miss 23-17 in early October. They host Miss. St. Saturday with the chance to even their record with the Bulldogs at the top of the SEC West. Then the Crimson tide host Western Carolina and Auburn to finish out the season. Alabama needs to beat Miss. St. and Western Carolina before losing at home to Auburn in the Iron Bowl to finish 10-2 on the year. Bama leads the all-time series 42–35–1 over Auburn and has won four of the last six, but lost last year as Auburn made it’s run to the National Championship game.

Auburn controls its own destiny in the SEC West thanks in part to a tough loss to Texas A&M this past Saturday. But they did split two of its Circle of Doom games already with a loss at Miss. St. 38-23 and a win over Ole Miss 35-31 in Oxford. Auburn has the toughest non SEC West game left, playing at Georgia on Saturday. Auburn needs to win that game, and then beat Samford at home on Nov., 22nd before heading to Alabama and winning the Iron Bowl for the second consecutive year. For the Tigers those three wins would secure them a 10-2 record and keep the Circle of Doom intact.

The Rebels of Ole Miss got the whole circle started this year. When they beat Alabama they solidified themselves as a National presence this year, but tight losses at LSU and Auburn have placed Ole Miss currently looking to the Egg Bowl as their last shot. Ole Miss has Saturday off, but plays at Arkansas on Nov. 22nd before hosing in-state rival Miss. State to close out the regular season. Ole Miss needs to win both of those games to complete the Circle of Doom and spin the entire college football season on its head.

A lot of things have to happen for the Circle of Doom to be completed and cause everyone to scratch their heads at the end of November 29th. But it isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Of the four teams, Auburn is the only one who has to win any of their games against the others on the road. They could also throw everything into a lurch if they lose at Georgia this week. But this is still probable. So who goes to the SEC Championship game if the Circle of Doom is completed? It’s complicated.

The first tie break between the four teams is combined head to head record among the tied teams: Ole Miss (2-1), Miss St. (1-2), Alabama (1-2), Auburn (2-1). Alabama and Miss. St. would be eliminated for having a worse record than Auburn and Ole Miss. The tie-break then goes to a two team tie-breaker, which is the head to head record of the two teams: Auburn beat Ole Miss already, and they would be in the SEC Championship game facing the SEC East champion.

At best the SEC East champion will be a two loss Missouri team. The Tigers are at Texas A&M on Saturday and still play Tennessee on the road and Arkansas at home to finish the season. If they win out they would win the SEC East based on the Circle of Doom eliminating current two loss Georgia from contention. If Missouri loses one or more of those games, Georgia is the favorite to win the SEC East having already beaten Missouri even if they lose to Auburn on Saturday to help keep the Circle of Doom intact to bring them to three losses. Florida is still a potential to win the East, but they need to win out against South Carolina, Eastern Kentucky and at #2 Florida State as well as have Missouri and Georgia lose to head to the SEC Championship.

Whatever happens in the SEC East, if that team upsets Auburn after they come out of the Circle of Doom, the potential is there for the SEC to be left out of the first ever College Football Playoffs. The committee would have an easy time denying Missouri, Florida and Georgia entry into the final four, whether two or three losses for those teams. Also Auburn would have three losses. They’d be out. Could an argument be made for one of the non-division winners from the SEC West? Of course, this is probably the best case scenario if the Circle of Doom spirals out of control, but there would likely be much outrage from other teams across the country. (See: Baylor (8-1) AND TCU (8-1) if they finish with one loss each.) Ohio State (9-1), Duke (9-1) Nebraska (9-1), Marshall (9-0) and Colorado State (9-1) all could finish with only one loss, Marshall a legitimate shot to go undefeated. They all would make a strong case along with the winner of the Pac 12 (Oregon 9-1 or Arizona St. 8-1) and Florida State (8-0) if they stay undefeated to be included in the College Football Playoffs (If Florida State stays undefeated they would knock Duke out by beating them in the ACC Championship Game).

The real question might not be what happens if the Circle of Doom comes to fruition, but should there still be this big of a question on who makes the College Football Playoff? Of course it could all be worked out very easily. And that is why they play games.

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