Karen Rogers likes to drive her car to work because the train is unreliable. Credit:Tony Walters On one side is teacher Filip Lovely, who gave up his car about 18 months after moving to Stanmore in the inner west from Illawong in the Sutherland Shire, and hasn't looked back. "Sydneysiders really love a good whinge about 'Sh*ttyrail" but public transport is actually quite reliable and affordable - much cheaper than driving," said the 28-year-old, who grew up in Illawong in south Sydney. On the other is Central Coast resident Karen Rogers. She uses the same train system as Mr Lovely but has a markedly different experience. "I had tried to use the train on a few different occasions but I got really annoyed because they were never on time and I had to pay for a ticket, which wasn't cheap, and couldn't get a seat," Ms Rogers said. "Sometimes I ended up standing for the whole trip - and to North Sydney that's about an hour."

Filip Lovely is sticking with public transport. Credit:Tony Walters The number of rail commuters has soared in areas of Sydney such as Rhodes, Auburn and Green Square, where populations are exploding, according to a Fairfax Media analysis of Transport for NSW figures. Yet at stations further afield such as Gosford, Penrith, Fairfield and Blaxland, rail patronage has fallen by up to 25 per cent despite modest population growth. Mr Lovely said he "would not have been able to live" without his car in Illawong but found himself driving less and less after moving to Stanmore.

Now, he regularly takes trains all over Sydney: to the city, Chatswood, Bankstown and Padstow. "I have never looked at a timetable. I just walk to Stanmore and wait, max, 10 minutes, if I'm unlucky," he said. In contrast, Ms Rogers found catching the train from the Central Coast to her previous job in North Sydney more frustrating than sitting in traffic for up to three-and-a-half hours a day, five days a week. "It was a pain driving ... but I couldn't rely on [public transport], so it just wasn't worth it," she said. Inner- and middle-ring suburban stations showed stellar growth between 2004 and 2014, according to the analysis.

Rhodes and Green Square, which have experienced rapid growth in apartment developments, have had increases in train patronage of 464 per cent and 421 per cent, respectively. Similarly, Wolli Creek grew by 387 per cent and Mascot by 296 per cent between 2004 and 2014. Populations in these areas skyrocketed by 20-35 per cent over the same period, and have risen even further since the data was collected. Green Square and Mascot have also benefited from a Keneally government decision in 2011 to subsidise a station access fee for commuters at the two non-airport stations. Independent transport expert Garry Glazebrook said rapid growth in patronage at most stations in the inner suburbs reflected both an apartment boom and gentrification in areas such as Marrickville. Patronage soared by 56 per cent at Redfern, 45 per cent at Dulwich Hill and 44 per cent at Erskineville. By contrast, patronage had been falling on train lines where there had been no improvements in service speeds or frequencies, such as the Blue Mountains and Central Coast lines. "The Blue Mountains has always been a bit of a retirement area," he said.

Dr Glazebrook said the decline could also be linked to an ageing population and improved roads such as the M7 making it easier to drive to work. In western Sydney, the picture is mixed. The north west, around Ryde, and parts of the west and south west, such as Auburn and Parramatta, have experienced strong population growth, matched by rapid rises in rail usage. Patronage at Auburn station rose by 62 per cent and at Parramatta by 37 per cent between 2004 and 2014. However, older, established suburbs such as Campbelltown and Penrith haven't grown significantly. Rail usage at both stations has fallen by nearly 20 per cent.

"However, this is expected to change in future as redevelopment starts occurring in the large areas of older, low density housing," Dr Glazebrook said. "This has already started around places like Blacktown." Geoffrey Clifton, a lecturer in transport at the University of Sydney, said the decline in patronage at stations in outer parts of the Sydney basin was unexpected, given these populations had grown. "It could be ... people not needing to travel into the city for work, and it could be more people working from home," he said.

The figures are likely to put further pressure on the Baird government to reject advice from the state's pricing regulator to significantly raise fares for commuters travelling long distances on the rail network. The Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal is due to release its report in May. NSW Commuter Council chairman Kevin Parish said the figures were surprising. 'It could mean that there's been a transition of rail patronage to cars. I do know a few people who have given up travelling by train and now go by car," he said. Mr Parish said he regularly received complaints about overcrowding on trains to the Blue Mountains, Central Coast and South Coast. The Central Coast desperately needed more peak-hour services, as well as more parking spaces at train stations, Ms Rogers said. "Unless you're there by 6.30am you've got to park a mile away." A Transport for NSW spokeswoman said factors such as employment and an ageing of the population could lead to variations in barrier counts at train stations. "With recent high levels of take up of Opal by public transport customers, Transport for NSW will have more accurate and timely patronage information in the future to assist with transport planning," she said.

Station barrier counts indicate the number of passengers exiting and entering on a "typical day". Some counts are estimated because not all stations are surveyed every year.