The US Senate race in North Carolina is getting more attention and Republicans are getting more nervous. Yesterday, Real Clear Politics moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up, indicating challenger Deborah Ross is going to give incumbent Republican Richard Burr a run for his money. And a Roll Call article this morning says the Democrats path to a Senate majority may run through North Carolina.

Once again, North Carolina is front and center on the national political stage. Last week, Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager listed NC as one the of the campaign’s top three priorities. The gubernatorial race is considered Democrats’ best chance for a pick up and Attorney General Roy Cooper leads incumbent Governor Pat McCrory both in polls and fundraising. Ross’s success in fundraising and organizing now puts three of the biggest races in the country in North Carolina.

Ross has impressed the political world. She out-raised Burr two quarters in a row and quickly put together a statewide campaign. Last week, she was the only challenger offered a chance to speak at a DSCC briefing for donors. Ross is clearly seen as one of the cycle’s rising stars.

In addition, the political environment right now seems to favor Democrats in the state. House Bill 2 has energized progressives and the Clinton campaign is putting together a massive field operation. The court of appeals rebuked voter suppression laws last week, removing barriers that could dampen Democratic turnout.

And on top of it all, Donald Trump may be melting down. He’s fighting with the parents of a soldier who died in Iraq instead of fighting with Hillary Clinton. His convention was the most unsuccessful in modern history and recent polls show that he’s losing white educated voters, a demographic he must win to have a chance in November.

A Trump collapse would mean large numbers of Republican-leaning voters who don’t vote in midterms would also stay home this year. For candidates like Ross, that’s the type of opening that sweeps them into office. To win any election, candidates need stars to align. For Ross, they’re moving into place.

Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >