Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast update for Oct. 10, 2018

Yeah. The classic version a 538 senate forecast currently gives Republicans he four and five or about an 80% chance of winning a majority. And it gives Democrats about a won it. According to our forecast the most likely outcome right now. Is one where the senate breakdown remains exactly the same as it is now with Republicans holding 51 seats. And Democrats holding fourteen. The race to win the senate is looking increasingly difficult for the Democrats as we get closer to the mid terms. In order to win a majority the Democrats need at least money each of the 35 senate seats up for election this program. Assuming they win all the races are solid likely and lean Democrat. And the two races are model currently use toss ups. That would only put Democrats 27. Resulting in a 5050 tie that vice president Mike Pence would rake in fever of Republicans. This means Democrats have to win at least one of the seats that are lean weren't likely republic. One of those seats is already held by Democrat senator Heidi I can't in North Dakota but she's currently not fever two way. Our model gives Republican challenger Kevin Kremer a 68%. Chance of beating incumbent I'd. When our forecast launch back in early September. We gave high campus 62%. Chance of being reelected but she's a democratic senator in a pretty red state. In fact the North Dakota is the fourth most Republican leaning state in the country. And a majority of the recent polls after we use some by double digits. But she did surprise us by winning in 2000. So keep a close eye as we get closer to action. Visit 538 dot com slash senate forecast to explore the model for years and.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.