In the latest example of how playoff baseball is less predictable than a deer by a roadway, the Rangers just won two games in Toronto, with Ross Ohlendorf slamming the door, and with Rougned Odor’s baserunning arguably occupying center stage. In a game that sent 109 men to the plate, it wouldn’t be fair to suggest it all came down to one or two events, but there’s one event and one event only that’ll be dominating the conversation until Game 3. If you watched, you know what it is. If you didn’t watch, you probably still know what it is, because umpiring controversies have a way of getting around.

With two down in the top of the 14th, Odor slapped an infield single. That put the go-ahead run on first base, and then Odor advanced to second on a subsequent single. Odor actually rounded second aggressively, thinking about getting to third, but then he decided to return. Yet, cleverly, Jose Bautista threw behind him. There was a tag attempt, and, immediately, the play became everything.

In real time, it’s not too remarkable — it just looks like a smart play that very nearly worked.

But then the umpires proceeded to an instant-replay review, and as we got to see the play in slow motion, we all realized Odor might well have been out. It’s not that Odor didn’t beat the tag from Troy Tulowitzki; it’s that Odor’s foot could’ve come off, with Tulowitzki’s glove holding on his shin.

The crowd responded favorably to the review. It responded favorably not just because it meant there was some question, but because the crowd got to watch the replays on the scoreboard, and those replays made an out look highly likely. I think, increasingly, the crowd assumed an out call. It was a wonderful pendulum swing: a base hit turning into an inning-ending out, even though nothing looked strange in the moment. It seemed like a gift, a very minor miracle. Here’s the best I could time a screenshot:

The glove is on the leg. The cleat, at least, isn’t firmly on the base. Because of the angle, we can’t conclusively say whether there was space between Odor and the bag. It seems probable there was.

After the review, the crew chief signaled safe. Odor was alive on second, the Rangers alive in the 14th, and shortly thereafter Odor would score the go-ahead and eventual winning run. For good measure, the Rangers added a run of insurance. Then came Ohlendorf, then came preparation for a long flight to Texas.

It’s not the call that blew the game. True, after the call, the Rangers scored and won. But, at the time, the game was tied. There was no guarantee the Jays would score before the Rangers would. And in terms of win expectancy, the difference between Odor being safe and out was worth 11% to Toronto. Hanser Alberto’s single was worth 37%. Delino DeShields‘ single was worth another 8%. Even when Odor was called safe, the Jays still had an easy route out of the inning. They just needed to not let him score. He scored, and the Rangers scored twice after the first two batters made outs.

So you don’t want to exaggerate the significance of the play, but at the same time, you have to realize that with another call, the Rangers don’t have any chance to score, at least not until the Jays make three more outs. Now, I know some people don’t love the idea of these plays being reviewed in the first place. In the live game chat, several people expressed negativity that technicalities like this could potentially erase runners from the bases. It would presumably be a violation of the spirit of the thing for a runner to be called out because he came off for a fraction of a second with the glove still in contact. While I sympathize with those who find the review process to be slow and interruptive, it’s also a matter of enforcing the rules and deciding where you’re going to draw the lines. If a player comes off a base for a full second, and he’s tagged, he’s obviously out. If he comes off a base for half of a second, he’s obviously out. So, where’s the line? As far as I’m concerned, the line ought to be zero seconds. If we have a rule, and if we have the technology, we might as well use the technology to enforce the rule. Even if it seems like splitting hairs, the whole idea of replay review is to improve upon the capabilities of the human eye. It’s to make potentially clear what isn’t clear at full speed.

As for this play itself: it doesn’t seem like you can know anything for a fact. What the umpires seemingly didn’t have was a clear angle showing Tulowitzki’s glove on Odor’s leg, with space visible between Odor’s cleat and the base. That would be conclusive, but this review asked the umpires instead to infer. They had to figure out what the other side of the base looked like, based on the action of Odor’s lower leg when he slid. My guess is they couldn’t rule out the possibility that Odor had a spike on the base. So they stuck with the original call, not seeing enough evidence to go the other way. Me, I think there’s enough evidence, and I also think that, had Odor been originally called out on the field, the umpires would’ve stuck with that after review. I think they just wound up in that horrible gray area, and then psychology kicked in. Odor was probably out, but the original call is powerful. In theory, at least in my ideal world, replay reviews should result in calls based on the preponderance of the evidence. In reality, it seems like that’s not what we see.

I don’t really think baseball umpires like to make decisions based on inferences. Last night, I watched hockey refs change a call after review, based on an inference. You’d think the behavior would be the same. I guess this is just anecdotal.

And this is a nice reminder of how narratives can mislead. It’s a reminder that baseball games can come down to the littlest things, and, while the Rangers just went into hostile territory and took two games from the favorite, that doesn’t have to mean anything deep about the Rangers, and it doesn’t have to mean anything deep about the Blue Jays, because in the 14th inning, this happened:

…mere minutes after this happened:

The character of a team isn’t dependent upon an instant-replay review that almost couldn’t be closer. The character of a team isn’t dependent upon a proven slugger missing a walk-off home run by maybe two feet. The Rangers won the game, and deserved to do so. The Blue Jays could’ve won the game, and would’ve deserved to do so. The playoffs aren’t any more fair than anything else. It’s your fault if you expect them to be what they aren’t.