Ireland’s prime minister, Enda Kenny, has announced that the Republic’s general election will take place on the last Friday of this month, and vowed that he will not allow the Irish economy’s fragile recovery to turn into another boom to bust cycle.



Bookmakers, political scientists and election number crunchers predict that Kenny will make history by being returned as taoiseach at the end of this month. He would become the first Fine Gael premier to win back-to-back general elections.

Hours after the Dáil was dissolved and Kenny sought the official approval of Ireland’s president, Michael D Higgins, to call the election on 26 February, Kenny said the economic recovery “remains fragile but cannot and should not be taken for granted … now is not the time to mess around with it.”

I am seeking a dissolution of Dáil Éireann today with the election to be held on February 26th.https://t.co/R5JnwC3XFB — Enda Kenny (@EndaKennyTD) February 3, 2016

Speaking at the first Fine Gael press conference of the three-week campaign in Dublin on Wednesday afternoon, Kenny promised there would be “no more boom or bust, no more reckless waste of taxpayers’ money and no more staggering from fiscal crisis to fiscal crisis” if his government was re-elected.



Acknowledging the impact of the recession on Ireland’s young people, the taoiseach said the political errors prior to the fiscal crash of 2008 were “the mistakes that drove our most precious assets, our children, on planes to London, Toronto and Brisbane and everywhere else.”



Surrounded by his Fine Gael cabinet ministers and an audience of party candidates, Kenny’s campaign launch was a tightly controlled affair with only four news organisations allowed to ask questions from the floor of the Dublin city centre hotel venue. This caused protests from the other media gathered inside.



While the odds are weighted in favour of Kenny becoming taoiseach again and thus taking the salute at the military parade on Easter Sunday to mark the 100th anniversary of the Rising in Dublin against British rule, opinion polls indicate his party will fall short of an overall majority. Recent polls and predictions from academics and experts point to a Fine Gael-Labour coalition propped up with support from at least six independent TDs (MPs).



Enda Kenny with Joan Burton, the deputy prime minister and Irish Labour party leader, after announcing the general election in Dublin. Photograph: Clodagh Kilcoyne/Reuters

Prof Michael Gallagher and Mike Marsh, veteran Irish political scientists at Trinity College Dublin and authors of a book on how Ireland voted in the last 2011 general election, told the Guardian it was almost certain that Fine Gael would be the largest party after the election.



Gallagher said: “The only pre-declared willing coalition is Fine Gael and Labour, which on current polls is likely to be some way short of a majority, so for them to remain in office they would need to bring in another party or come to an arrangement with quite a number of independents, unless their support grows between now and the election, which is possible. In short, there is a lot of uncertainty.”



The key issue of the campaign will be the management of an economy that took a severe battering the year after the crash and forced the government before the 2011 election, led by the rival Fianna Fáil party, to hand over the nation’s finances to the International Monetary Fund and the EU.

Kenny and Fine Gael will argue that they have presided over a government that exited the IMF-EU bailout, while unemployment has almost halved, Irish growth has outperformed all its major EU partners and consumer spending has recovered.

However, the junior partner in the coalition, the Irish Labour party, faces accusations of betraying its working class urban base by agreeing to austerity cuts and the implementation of water charges – the latter measure demanded by the IMF and EU in the bailout.



On the prospects of an electoral meltdown for Irish Labour akin to that of Britain’s Liberal Democrats, Gallagher pointed out that there was no sign of recovery for the party “on any opinion poll evidence, but Labour themselves believe that they will rise to 10% or more and win 15-plus seats rather than the eight or so that many currently predict for them.”



Gallagher questioned the idea that a new coalition reliant on non-party independents would produce an inherently unstable government.



“Minority governments supported by independents have a respectable track record here. Such a government, Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats, led by Bertie Ahern, lasted for a full five-year term 1997–2002.



“The likelihood is that the next government will not have to make the unpopular tax-raising and expenditure-cutting decisions that the last one did. So with a reasonable degree of political skill a government should be able to survive with the support of independents – provided there are not too many independents involved, as obviously a government that relies on two or three is in a better position than one that needs the steady support of eight or 10 independents.

“Indeed, one possible outcome is a single-party Fine Gael minority government that is supported by independents, though this would need Fine Gael to win more votes than the opinion polls currently show.”



Marsh said one of the key questions in voters’ minds would be whether the tax raises, spending cuts and other measures required to restore the nation’s finances had been fairly spread across Irish society over the last five years.



“I do think people acknowledge that some austerity was necessary, but was it fair austerity? One narrative is that the recovery is for Dublin and for the middle classes, and that is certainly the group behind Fine Gael’s recovery,” he said.



He agreed that a coalition dependent on non-party-aligned TDs could last more than two years in office. Some opinion polls suggest that up to 16 independent TDs could be elected to the next Dáil.

Marsh said: “Yes, there are many such examples. Even so, it’s worth noting that the government lost about a dozen of its own party supporters in the last five years. Money to spend could help in independents’ areas but it also raises expectations.”