2016 ACT Election Preview

On Saturday 15 October Canberra voters will vote at the ninth ACT Legislative Assembly election since self-government in 1989.

The 2016 election will be the first for an expanded 25 member Legislative Assembly, an increase on the 17 members elected at all previous elections.

The expansion follows the Commonwealth's transfer of power to determine the size of the Assembly to the ACT. The legislation expanding the chamber passed the Legislative Assembly with support from the government and the opposition, achieving the required two-thirds majority for change.

Retirements and the expansion of the Assembly will see an influx of new members in 2016. Of the 17 members elected in 2012, four have since retired and been replaced, while two members will not contest the 2016 election. Only 12 members elected in 2012 will be facing re-election, meaning more than half of the new Assembly will be elected for the first time in 2016. (Details of departed and retiring MLAs can be found here.)

The election will be fought by new opponents in Labor's first term Chief Minister Andrew Barr, and Liberal Opposition leader Jeremy Hanson.

The two protagonists from 2012, Labor's Katy Gallagher and Liberal Leader Zed Seselja, now sit opposite each other in the Commonwealth Parliament as the ACT's two Senators.

The Labor Party has governed the ACT since 2001. Labor won three elections under Jon Stanhope in 2001, 2004 and 2008, won a fourth victory under Katy Gallagher in 2012, and will now try to win a fifth term in 2016 led by Andrew Barr.

However, under the ACT's proportional Hare-Clark electoral system, victories are rarely overwhelming. Out of eight ACT elections, only Labor's 2004 victory produced single-party majority government. Labor governed in minority after the 2001 and 2008 elections, and has governed as a majority Coalition government with the Greens since 2012.

The 2012 election was a dead heat between the two major parties, the Liberal Party polling 41 more votes than Labor and both parties electing eight MLAs.

It was the Liberal Party's second highest vote at an ACT election, second only to 40.5% on Kate Carnell's election to office in 1995. It was also the first time the Liberal Party had won eight seats at an ACT election. (Results of past ACT elections can be found here.)

The deadlock was broken in 2012 by the decision of Green MLA Shane Rattenbury to accept Labor's offer of a ministry, leaving the Liberal Party in opposition despite its record result.

The 2012 Election

2012 ACT Legislative Assembly Election - Summary of results First Preference Seats Votes Pct Change Won Change 86,032 38.90 +7.31 8 +2 85,991 38.88 +1.49 8 +1 23,773 10.75 -4.87 1 -3 9,179 4.15 -0.84 .. .. 8,864 4.01 +4.01 .. .. 2,340 1.06 +0.69 .. .. 940 0.43 +0.43 .. .. 4,053 1.83 -8.22 .. .. 221,172 .. .. 17 .. 7,953 3.47 -0.33 .. .. 229,125 89.26 -1.11 .. .. 256,702

For the Greens the 2012 results were disappointing, losing almost a third of the party's 2008 support and reduced from four members to one. It was a decline that mirrored results across the country at the time. The Greens recorded record results at all state elections during the first term of the Rudd government, only to face subsequent reverses while Julia Gillard was Prime Minister.

In agreeing to form government, the Greens negotiated a Parliamentary Agreement with Labor setting out a series of policy areas for action. Among the agreed policies was work on the construction of a light rail network. It is the funding and construction of the first light rail link to Gungahlin in the north of Canberra that could be an important factor in the result of the 2016 election.

The New Electorates

When the ACT was granted self-government in 1989, an Assembly of 17 members was created elected as a single electorate using the modified D'Hondt electoral system. This electoral system allowed little choice of candidate within party lists, and the amendments to the electoral system imposed by the Senate made the counting procedures a nightmare for the Electoral Commission.

Modified D'Hondt was abandoned in favour of the Tasmanian Hare-Clark system in 1995, requiring the ACT to be divided into two 5-member electorates and one 7-member electorate. A map of the three electorates used at the 2012 election can be found here.

Five-member Brindabella covered the Tuggeranong region in southern Canberra, but also included parts of Woden Valley. Five-member Ginninderra in the north-west included the entire Belconnen district, but also took in parts of the growing Gungahlin district in Canberra's north.

Seven-member Molonglo straddled everything in-between, covering central Canberra on both sides of Lake Burley Griffin, but also including Weston Creek and the rest of Woden Valley and Gungahlin.

Previous attempts to increase the size of the Assembly had been blocked by the Howard government. The Gillard government amended the Australian Capital Territory (Self-Government) Act to give the Assembly the power to determine its own size as long as enactment had at least two-thirds support in the Assembly.

After the 2012 election the Gallagher government appointed an Expert Reference Group into the size of the Assembly. It released a discussion paper in February 2013 before embarking on a process of public consultations. It eventually recommended a two stage expansion, to 25 members elected from five 5-member districts in 2016, followed by an expansion to 7-members per district in 2020.

Both the Labor and Liberal Parties opposed the second expansion, eventually agreeing on the 5-members by 5-electorates expansion to 25 members.

When finally released, the new electoral boundaries provided a better fit to Canberra's regions. A map of the five electorates to be used at the 2016 election can be found here.

Southern Brindabella contracts to cover just Tuggeranong. Ginninderra is still based on Belconnen, but several Belconnen suburbs have been included in the new Gungahlin based electorate of Yerrabi.

Central Molonglo has been abolished, its northern parts in Gungahlin forming the basis of Yerrabi. Woden Valley and Weston Creek now form the electorate of Murrumbidgee, while the core of old Canberra on both sides of Lake Burley Griffin now forms the electorate of Kurrajong.

The political implications of the new boundaries are set out later in this preview.

Arrivals and Departures

Four members elected in 2012 have departed the Legislative Assembly, creating casual vacancies that have been filled at by-elections conducted by Hare-Clark countback.

First to depart was Liberal leader Zed Seselja. On 4 February 2013 he announced his resignation as Liberal leader and intention to contest Liberal Senate pre-selection against incumbent Gary Humphries, a former ACT Liberal Chief Minister. Seselja defeated Humphries in a hotly contested Liberal ballot and resigned as a member for Brindabella in June 2013 to contest the Federal election. Liberal Nicole Lawder was elected to fill his vacancy on 26 June while Seselja was elected to the Senate at the September 2013 election.

In December 2014 Katy Gallagher announced she would resign to contest the vacancy caused by the resignation of ACT Labor Senator Kate Lundy. Andrew Barr replaced her as Chief Minister, and in January 2015 Meegan Fitzharris was elected to take Gallagher's place in Molonglo. Gallagher was formally appointed to the Senate vacancy by the Legislative Assembly on 25 March 2015.

Having already announced she would not contest the 2016 election owing to illness, Labor's Mary Porter resigned as a member for Ginninderra in February 2016, to be succeeded at the countback by-election on 3 March 2016 by Labor's Jayson Hinder.

The final surprise resignation came in July 2016 when long serving Brindabella MLA and former Liberal Leader Brendan Smyth announced his resignation after being approached by the ACT Labor government to become Commissioner for International Engagement. This created a problem for the Liberal Party as the only remaining Liberal Brindabella candidate was 81 year-old Tharwa newsagent Val Jeffery. His Liberal Party membership had lapsed, and had he not nominated the casual vacancy would have been filled by another party. Jeffery nominated, was elected on 28 July, and sat in the Assembly for two weeks before it was dissolved for the election. He is not contesting the 2016 election.

The table below lists the 17 current members of the Legislative Assembly, the electorate they currently represent, and also the new electorate that each will be contesting. Retiring members and members elected at casual vacancies are indicated.

Which Electorate Current MLAs Will Be Contesting Party Labor Labor Liberal Liberal Liberal Labor Labor Labor Liberal Liberal Labor Labor Labor Liberal Liberal Liberal Greens

ACT Politics 2012-2016

As noted earlier, the 2012 election delivered the Liberal Party its second highest vote at an ACT election and a record eight seats. Liberal Leader Zed Seselja's decision to switch from central Molonglo to southern Brindabella delivered the Liberal Party three of the seat's five seats, and initial results suggested the Liberal Party would win eight seats to seven Labor and two Greens.

Final results saw the more even split of Labor vote across several candidates in Ginninderra deliver the final seat to a third Labor candidate rather than the Greens. The Liberal Party eventually finished with 41 more votes overall than Labor but the seats were eight each for Labor and Liberal with the sole remaining Green MLA, Shane Rattenbury, holding the balance of power.

While Federal Leader Tony Abbott referred to Zed Seselja having achieved moral authority to form government, the real authority based on seats in the Assembly saw Labor form government with Green's MLA Shane Rattenbury.

Seselja had now lost two elections, and despite the Liberal Party's better result in 2012, in early 2013 Seselja chose to move to Federal politics and was replaced as Liberal Leader by Jeremy Hanson.

In 2013 Canberra celebrated its centenary. The major political issue of the year was the introduction of the Marriage Equality (Same Sex) Act permitting couples of the same sex to marry in the ACT. The ACT had previously introduced civil union legislation in 2006, only to have it quashed by the Howard government. Civil Unions were re-introduced in 2012, but same-sex marriage was to last only five days. The new law was struck down by the High Court with a judgment that, while bad news for same-sex couples in the ACT, clarified the law and ruled that the Commonwealth Parliament had the power to legislate on same-sex marriage.

In 2014 the Gallagher government had to deal with the Mr Fluffy asbestos clean-up. Loose-fill asbestos insulation had been pumped into more than a thousand homes in the ACT in the 1960s and 1970s by a company called Mr Fluffy. The Commonwealth paid for remediation work on the houses between 1988 and 1993, but in 2013 it was discovered that asbestos fibres remained in the ceilings, walls, floors and soil of the properties.

Eventually the government announced a major buy-back scheme, partly funded by a loan from the Commonwealth and funds raised by the future sub-division and sale of cleaned land. Dealing with people forced out of their homes was very difficult politics for the government and also produced an estimated $300 million hole in the ACT's future budgets.

Under new Chief Minister Andrew Barr, the Labor government suffered a number of setbacks through 2015, mostly in ministries held by Joy Burch.

As Racing and Gaming Minister, Burch announced an increase in maximum note poker machine betting from $20 to $50 in late 2014. In January 2015 the government reversed the decision, Chief Minister Barr blaming his minister for the 'error'.

As Education Minister, Joy Burch had to announce an inquiry in April 2015 after it was revealed that a boy with autism had been placed in a cage used as a 'withdrawal space'. The inquiry found the principal of the school was at fault and produced recommendations into the management of children with complex needs and challenging behaviour.

As Police Minister, Burch's Chief of Staff Maria Hawthorne was revealed to have briefed CFMEU officials on a meeting between Burch and Chief Police Officer Rudi Lammers. Police objected that the meeting with the Minister had been private and confidential. Ms Hawthorne resigned, and after Chief Minister Andrew Barr declined to back his Minister's actions, Burch resigned as Police Minister in December 2015. In January 2016 she resigned from all her portfolios as Andrew Barr engaged in a major cabinet re-shuffle.

The on-going story of ACT politics over the last four years has been progress towards the introduction of light rail. Included as part of the governing agreement between Labor and the Greens, the proposal was always controversial as the spread out nature of suburban Canberra did not provide the concentration of residents usually required to justify investment in light rail infrastructure. The cost of the project plus the necessary tree removals on Northbourne Avenue have continued to be controversial.

The fact that the first line will connect the newly established Gungahlin suburbs to Civic may also play into the geography of ACT elections. The Liberal Party has traditionally done well in southern Canberra which will not see light rail for many years. Labor and the Greens do better in north Canberra, though in the past Labor's results have been less impressive in Gungahlin. Light rail may yet play a part in the election result by determining the balance of members elected in the new seat of Yerrabi.

Where the Election will be Decided

The table below takes the polling place results of the 2012 election and assigns them to the new electorates. The table shows the estimated percentage vote and estimated quotas for each party.

Adjusting 2012 Results to Match New Electoral Boundaries Labor Liberal Green Others Pct Quotas Pct Quotas Pct Quotas Pct Quotas 35.1 2.10 47.8 2.87 7.1 0.43 10.0 0.60 40.9 2.45 31.8 1.91 10.7 0.64 16.6 1.00 40.4 2.42 32.9 1.97 17.3 1.04 9.4 0.57 40.1 2.41 40.8 2.45 10.6 0.64 8.5 0.50 37.9 2.28 40.9 2.45 7.9 0.48 13.3 0.79

The table indicates that the Labor and Liberal Parties are assured of two seats in each of the five districts. Who wins the election then comes down to who wins the five 'hinge' seats, the fifth seat in each of the five districts.

For majority single party government, a party needs to win three of the five hinge seats. Fewer than that and government will be determined by the composition of any minor party or independent members elected.

When the Liberal Party under Kate Carnell won the 1995 and 1998 ACT elections, it was in part due to the election of conservative independents to the hinge seats. When these conservative members were replaced by Green and Democrat members in 2001, it played an important part in allowing Labor to take office under Jon Stanhope.

Except for the 2004 election when Labor won a majority in its own right, Labor's ability to govern has depended on Labor and the Greens winning the hinge seats.

The 2016 election will see several new parties contest the election, though at this stage it is hard to see how these new entrants can break into the current three-party dominance of the Assembly. The abolition of the 7-member Molonglo electorate means that members must reach the higher 16.7% quota for five-member electorates.

Repeating the 2012 result, the Liberal Party's best prospect of returning three members is in Brindabella, though the party will be disadvanatged by the departure of its longest serving and highest profile members in Brendan Smith and Zed Seselja. Late in the race the Liberals recruited a high profile candidate in radio broadcaster Mark Parton. Labor's Joy Burch has decided to re-contest the election despite her past problems in the Ministry.

Central Kurrajong is the electorate where the hinge seat is most likely to be won by the Greens, with the party polling a quota in its own right based on 2012 results. It is the seat that will be contested by a sitting Green in Shayne Rattenbury, as well as by Chief Minister Andrew Barr.

Which leaves the other three electorates to determine the balance of power. Labor's best hope of three seats, or at least two seats plus a Green, is north-west Ginninderra where the Liberal vote was under two quotas in 2012. Labor does not have Mary Porter as its ticket leader in 2016, while her replacement Jayson Hinder is contesting Yerrabi. Liberal Deputy Leader Alistair Coe is also moving to Yerrabi, leaving Vicki Dunne as the only sitting Liberal MLA in Ginninderra.

Based on 2012 results, Murrumbidgee is a hard electorate to pick with the Labor and Liberal tickets starting on 2.41 and 2.45 quotas, the Greens on 0.64 quotas. Labor has no sitting members contesting the seat while the Liberal ticket is lead by its Leader Jeremy Hanson and first term member Giulia Jones. As the other southern electorate well away from the new light rail, the Liberal Party will be hoping issues and the presence of sitting members might deliver it a third seat. The lead Green candidate is Caroline Le Couteur, who previously served as the second Green MLA for Molonglo between 2008 and 2012.

Gungahlin based Yerrabi could be the seat that determines government. Based on 2012 results, Yerrabi is weak for the Greens and Labor, the 2012 quotas being Liberal 2.45, Labor 2.28 and the Greens 0.48. Labor has two sitting members, but both were re-elected at countbacks since 2012 with Meegan Fitzharris moving from Molonglo and Jayson Hinder from Ginninderra. The Liberal Party has a high profile candidate in Deputy Leader Alistair Coe, though he moves to the electorate from Ginninderra. The question with Yerrabi will be whether Labor and the Greens reap rewards from their commitment to Gungahlin light rail, and whether the Liberal Party will lose support for opposing the project.