My current ratings. Bright red = Safe R, Dark blue = Safe D. Orange = Likely R, Salmon = Lean R, light blue = Lean D

At face value, a brutally gerrymandered chamber with a 27-11 Republican advantage would not seem to be competitive. And many national prognosticators who aren’t state legislative experts don’t really have this chamber on the radar. But thanks to the weirdest situation in any state legislative chamber and a potential blue wave in a swing state with a light blue hue, Michigan’s Senate is in play in 2018. What is that weird situation I mentioned? Michigan has the strongest legislative term limits in the country, limiting Senators to two 4 year terms. And because most Senators currently in the body were elected in the 2010 Tea Party wave, that means that most are term limited. And when I mean most, I mean most. 26 of the 38 Senators are term limited, meaning that over 68% of seats in the Michigan Senate will be open seats. No other state legislative body in the country will be electing even close to that many new members when viewed as a proportion of total members. That many open seats is good news for Democrats, especially since just 8 of those 26 term limited Senators are Democrats (all safe D seats), meaning there will be lots of GOP-held seats that will lack the incumbency advantage.

This is also part 1 of a series I will be doing where I rate the overall competitiveness of the chamber, along with race ratings for the competitive seats. I do this by using candidate information, fundraising data, past results, and the presidential partisan lean of the district using Daily Kos Elections’ awesome data! Building on that latter point, I will be referencing President Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Democratic Senator Gary Peters’s performances in these districts throughout the piece, data being found here. Without further ado, onto the seat rating chart and write-ups. Enjoy!:

Ratings

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R 29 (R) 7 (R) 15 (R) 14 (R) 10 (R) 17 (R) 21 (R) 12 (R) 24 (R) 22 (R) 13 (R) 32 (R) 31 (R) 20 (R) 34 (R) 38 (R) * = Parentheses indicates party who currently holds each seat Safe D (11): 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 11, 18, 23, 27 Safe R (11): 8, 16, 19, 25, 26, 28, 30, 33 35, 36, 37

Lean D: 29

29th district: Open (Hildebrand)

Centering on Grand Rapids and East Grand Rapids in traditionally conservative Kent County, the 29th district has just about all the college educated/left leaning voters in the county, making it a decently effective example of packing West Michigan Democratic voters in. Gary Peters, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton all won here, but it took a big swing towards Clinton in ’16, because while Peters and Obama only won the seat narrowly despite romping statewide in 2012 and 2014, Clinton won it by 15 points while losing by a tiny margin statewide. The Democrats have recruited State Rep. Winnie Brinks to run for this seat and she is a very good recruit. Republicans have State Rep. Chris Afendoulis, who will have a lot of money to spend on the race, making it a tough battle for Brinks. But with an open seat and a D+4 PVI, no amount of money may be enough to save Republicans. It’s the easiest Democratic pickup without question and why it lands in the Lean D column.

Tossup: 7, 10, 12, 13, 20, 38

7th district: Open (Colbeck)

The only Wayne County seat with a Republican PVI, the 7th district covers the northwestern portion of the county, Plymouth, Northville, and Livonia. That said, at R+1 on the national level, this is a very swingy district and one Democrats need to win if they want to reclaim the majority in the Michigan Senate. Clinton, Obama, and Peters all won here, but all by small margins, and the district saw a big swing toward Clinton in 2016, and away from Trump, which could mean good things for the Democrats. The GOP has recruited State Rep. Laura Cox and she’s going to be a strong opponent, with over $90,000 in the bank entering the year. The Democrats have Dr. Ghalum Qadir and Danya Polehanki, neither of whom jump out at you but they do both have notable endorsements. Qadir is the fundraising leader by quite a bit and probably has the edge heading into the August primary. Given the environment and the nature of this as an anti-Trump district, I’d make Democrats slight favorites but this is going to be a battle.

10th district: Open (Rocca)

If you want a good test of Trump appeal in 2018, Michigan’s 10th Senate District is a good one. Based in Sterling Heights and Clinton Township within Macomb County, this seat swung towards Donald Trump in 2016. While Peters won the seat and Obama lost it by just 2, Clinton lost it by 17, getting annihilated here, as she struggled across Macomb. In 2018, incumbent Tory Rocca is term limited, leaving the seat open. The Democrats have reeled in a very good recruit, State Rep. Henry Yanez, who represents part of Sterling Heights in the lower chamber of the legislature, a seat that Hillary Clinton also did very poorly in, but Yanez was able to win anyway. Yanez enters 2018 with over $65,000 in the bank, a nice amount to begin the year. On the Republican side, there’s a handful of B and C list candidates, who are falling behind Yanez in fundraising. The recruiting mismatch and environment puts this R+6 district seriously in play and Republicans need to be very careful going forward as it feels like this seat is slipping away from the GOP.

12th district: Open (Marleau)

This Oakland County district including Pontiac and Auburn Hills was supposed to be a GOP gerrymander, but like many of the suburban/wealthier/college educated districts, it saw a gigantic swing towards Clinton. While Trump still won it by less than a point, that movement is a clear opening for Democrats, along with the fact that incumbent Jim Marleau is vacating it. The Republicans are running State Rep. Jim Tedder, who is solid, while the Democratic leader seems to be Rosemary Bayer, who owns an IT company. She has a good background and is running a legitimate campaign so this district seems like it will be a battle, though she needs to be raising more money. This is one where the Democrats will look to the environment and to the district’s dislike of Trump for help in carrying them over the top.

13th district: Marty Knollenberg

With an EVEN PVI and a district that Clinton won by 6, this would be a Lean D seat if it were open. But with an incumbent, it sits in the tossup column. An Oakland County seat encompassing Rochester Hills, Troy, Bloomfield Hills, Birmingham, and Royal Oak, it has just the type of voters who don’t like Trump and are winnable for Dems. That said, incumbent Marty Knollenberg, son of former US Rep. Joe Knollenberg (MI-09), has the family name at his side and he will be a tough out. But, Democrats do have some controversy surrounding Knollenberg to use, in the form of racist comments made back in 2015 (https://www.wxyz.com/news/state-sen-knollenberg-responds-to-outrage-over-comments-perceived-as-racist). The main Dem candidate is Mallory McMorrow, who has been running a solid campaign and is raising enough money to compete. This be a tough fight to the end.

20th district: Margaret O’Brien

The most endangered incumbent of all comes from a district that is literally just Kalamazoo County. And KZoo County is one that leans left, with the national PVI being D+5. However, Republican incumbent O’Brien was elected in 2014, basically the worst major election year for Democratic turnout in memory and she was able to snare the seat by just 59(!) votes. Her competitor from 2014, Sean McCann, is back for another swing and he hopes that a much, much better environment will help him win. There’s reason to believe that will be the case, given the significant difference between what we saw in 2014 and what we expect to see in 2018. Clinton, Obama, and Peters all won this district by double digits and I think it’ll be tough for O’Brien to hold her seat and that Dems are probably the favorites here. But not yet big enough favorites to be anything other than a tossup.

34th district: Open (Hansen)

This district is the full counties of Muskegon, Oceana, and Newaygo. Muskegon is a very Democratic county, while the other two are more red, but with Muskegon having most of the people, this leaves the PVI at a very playable R+2. Republicans have State Rep. Holly Hughes in the race, though she only had less than $7,000 in the bank entering the year. Nonprofit director Poppy Sias-Hernandez has entered the race for the Democrats and being an open seat, it’s very much up for grabs. At this time, it is hard to gauge the caliber of Sias-Hernandez as a candidate but the partisan lean and an open seat nature put it very much in play.

38th district: Open (Casperson)

This district encompassing the western UP, including Marquette, Iron Range, Escanaba, and Houghton, is the Democrats’ best chance to steal a red seat. Peters, Clinton, and Obama all lost this district and it has an R+6 PVI nationally (Trump won it by 17 points). So why is it a tossup? Because Democrats have a terrific recruit, State Rep. Scott Dianda. Dianda will hurt the MI Dems’ House delegation because he will be leaving behind an R+8 district (term limits) that will be hard to defend. But if he can leave it behind and steal this seat, it will be well worth it. That R+8 district covers the more conservative part of the 38th senate district, showing he has strong appeal with Trump voters and if he can win the redder part of this district, he should have a great shot to win the district at large. He will face ex-State Rep. Ed McBroom but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say that Dianda’s the favorite here despite the hard right lean given everything I’ve said about his credentials, along with the fact he is a prolific fundraiser compared to McBroom (Dianda enters 2018 with over 80,000 in the bank, McBroom just under 11,000).

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Lean R: 15, 17, 24, 32

15th district: Open (Kowall)

The 15th district is located in southwestern Oakland County, including Wixom and South Lyon, and guess what? Like all the other Oakland County districts, it too saw a big shift towards Democrats in 2016. Clinton still lost it by 4, but compared to Obama who lost it by 6 while winning statewide by 10, it demonstrates the massive shift. Gary Peters did win this district in 2014, and so Democrats will have a good chance in another open seat race (the power of term limits, eh?). State Rep. Jim Runestad and ex-State Rep. Hugh Crawford are good Republican candidates, while nurse Julia Pulver is running an okay campaign for the Democrats. Pulver’s fundraising has sagged and it is what is keeping the district out of the tossup column. If she can right the ship, this seat will move a column leftwards, given it is only an R+4 seat where Donald Trump is likely underwater.

17th district: Dale Zorn

This district in the southeastern portion of the state along the Ohio border consists wholly of Lenawee and Monroe counties. It was won by Obama in 2012, but then saw a massive shift away from Team Blue in 2016, going to Trump by 22. In 2014, it was an open seat, which Senator Dale Zorn won by just under 5 points, showing it still has the potential to be blue and indeed Monroe County still has some Democratic infrastructure. And Democrats have a good recruit in the form of State Rep. Bill Lavoy. Lavoy represented part of this district in the State House before he lost a narrow reelection in 2016, weighed down by the environment and Clinton’s unpopularity here. But with a better environment, he’s hoping to make a comeback against Zorn and he’ll have a shot. We have to see how his fundraising goes so for now, it’s a Lean R race.

24th district: Open (Jones)

This district includes all of Eaton, Clinton, and Shiawassee counties, along with the small sliver of Ingham County that contains Williamston. Incumbent Rick Jones is term limited, leaving this R+5 district open. The Democrats have recruited Kelly Rossman-McKinney, CEO of Lansing PR firm Truscott Rossman and she is fundraising like a maniac. She has over $150K in the war chest, which is 2 to 3x what is considered good for a State Senate race. She is set to face either State Rep. Tom Barrett or State Rep. Brett Roberts, and those two have far less money to work with at this point in time. It is an R+5 district that Clinton and Obama both lost, but the quality of challenger puts it in play. I’m a little hesitant to put it in the tossup column yet, but it has the potential to end up there. This is the type of district that Democrats need a few of in order to cobble together a majority.

32nd district: Ken Horn

This district consists of Saginaw and Genessee Counties, with Flint excluded, and it’s a very swingy one, with a R+1 PVI. The incumbent Horn won it by only 8 points in 2014 despite the very good Republican year, so it’s definitely a vulnerable seat. He’s got quite a bit of money in the bank which will make him a tough incumbent, but as Virginia’s House of Delegates races showed us last fall, no amount of money can save you in a Midterm year in a place where the President from your party is unpopular. The Democrats have State Rep. Phil Phelps in the race and he’ll be a good candidate to test Horn. If it were an open seat, this would probably be a tossup race but for now, we’ll leave it in Lean R until we see more fundraising numbers from Phelps.

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Likely R: 14, 21, 22, 31

14th district: Open (Robertson)

This district consists of many of the non-Flint parts of Genessee County, including Fenton and Grand Blanc. Obama lost the 14th by just 4 points and Peters won it, but it had a violent swing towards Trump, with the Republican winning it by 17 points. That shifted the PVI of the district to R+7 and so it will be a tough climb for Democrats but being an open seat in an R+7 district, it’s doable. Republicans have term limited Secretary of State Ruth Johnson dropping down to run for this seat and she will be tough to beat, but Democrats have a few names in the hunt, including Grand Blanc school board member Renee Watson. It’s a stretch district but it could eventually come into play, so we’ll leave it in Likely R.

21st district: Open (Proos)

This is a longshot race but Democrats have a decent enough candidate which, combined with the potential for a very favorable environment as well as the open seat, justifies the competitive rating. The 21st is located in the southwestern portion of the state, including Berrien, Cass, and St. Joseph Counties, and it’s an R+9 district. Predictably, Republicans have a couple of State Reps. in the hunt, Kim Lasata and Dave Pagel. On the other side, Ian Haight, a tech officer for Berrien Schools, is the type of candidate who could make things tight. Again, a longshot, but it’s on the radar.

22nd district: Open (Hune)

This is actually my State Senate district, encompassing western Washtenaw County outside the City of Ann Arbor and Saline, and then stretching north to take in Livingston County. That latter fact is what makes it quite red, as Livingston is one of Michigan’s most conservative counties. But Democrats have an interesting recruit, prosecutor and veteran Adam Dreher, who has the tall task of flipping this R+10 district. He will likely be facing State Rep. Lana Theis, who seems solid. It’s a longshot, but it did take a small shift towards Clinton in 2016, for what it’s worth, and so we’re putting the 22nd in Likely R.

31st district: Open (Green)

The 31st district includes Bay, Tuscola, and Lapeer Counties, and is quite red, with an R+10 PVI. Yet, Bay County has decent Democratic infrastructure, and is a bit bluer down ballot, with the incumbent Green winning re-election by just 12 points in 2014 despite a strong pro-GOP national environment. Democrats have Bay County Clerk Cynthia Luczak in the race and she seems like an excellent candidate, except her fundraising has been bad so far. If it could pick up, this could move columns leftward and become a legit pickup opportunity, but for now we have to leave it in Likely R, especially because the Republican candidate Daley has over $50,000 in the war chest entering the year.

The path to a majority

Entering these elections, Democrats are in a 27-11 deficit, meaning they need to flip 8 seats to make it a 19-19 tie. In Michigan, a tie in the State Senate is broken by the Lt. Gov., so for this segment we’re assuming the Lt. Gov. is a Democrat because let’s be real, Democrats aren’t flipping 8 seats if they’re not also winning the Governorship. So how do Democrats get to 19 seats? Let’s break it down:

Step 1: Flip the seats that you’re strong favorites in

At this point in time, Democrats have SD-29 in Lean D, while it’s fair to say that due to either the partisan lean of the district or a much stronger D candidate than R candidate, Dems are clear favorites in SD-10, SD-20, and SD-38. Winning those 4 are absolute musts to even be in contention for a majority. Putting those 4 in the bank leaves Democrats at 15.

Step 2: Ride the anti-Trump educated/suburban wave to flipping three seats in Detroit suburbs

Whether it was last November’s suburban revolt against Republicans in Northern Virginia or last week’s special election in Pennsylvania’s 178th House District (Democrats flipped a Romney +15 seat), it’s been clear for awhile now that the distaste for Donald Trump in educated and suburban areas is going to be a very big problem for Republicans in November. Nowhere is this going to be more present nationwide than in Oakland County, Michigan, and in the outskirts of Wayne County. These areas contain SD-7, SD-12, and SD-13, which I have all listed as tossups. These don’t have the strongest Democratic candidates of all time, but they definitely have enough money to make this very interesting, and unlike some of the stronger candidates in step 1, here, Democrats will be hoping a suburban revolt like what we saw in Virginia and have seen in other special elections occurs, where educated voters who dislike Donald Trump take their anger out on down ballot Republicans. Winning these three puts Dems at 18 and a +7 so far.

Step 3: Pick off one other seat

The trickiest part for Democrats may be trying to find that final pickup, but they have some possibilities. The Muskegon seat, SD-34, is definitely an option, as is SD-24, where the Democratic candidate Kelly Rossman-McKinney is fundraising like gangbusters. If Bill Lavoy can lead a Democratic revival in Monroe, SD-17 will definitely be an option given that Obama won the seat in 2012, but color me a tad skeptical. While Julia Pulver seems like a weak candidate in SD-15, the demographics and fundamentals of the district are very similar to those described in Step 2 and that same kind of anti-Trump suburban wave could carry her over the top. If Cynthia Luczak gets her act together, SD-31 could come into play, or maybe Phil Phelps will differentiate himself and SD-32 will fall. There are a handful of options, but Democrats will need to find a way to topple one to get the crucial 19th seat.

The Bottom Line

So at this point in time, Republicans are still the favorites to hold the State Senate but this is a very real race. Democrats are poised to gain at least 3-4 seats, with higher gains very much a possibility, but getting to 19 will be a bit of a challenge, which is why we’ll leave the overall chamber rating at Lean R . This is a real fight and the GOP should be concerned at the prospect of losing their majority, but we’re hedging our bets a bit with the bottom line and not being too aggressive.

Estimate if election were held today: D+3 to D+9

Chamber Rating: Lean R