Published online 26 November 2008 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news.2008.1257

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As melting ice uncovers natural resources, Greenlanders vote to step closer to independence.

Greenlanders are hoping that global warming will make their country's oil and mineral wealth more accessible. NASA

Greenland's residents have voted overwhelmingly to take a step closer to full independence. The move towards gaining the full status of 'country' has been spurred not just by feelings of national pride, many say, but by climate change.

Greenland has long been an administrative division of Denmark, with powers of home-rule in areas such as health-care and education since 1979. Many have pushed for further economic and foreign-policy independence, but this has been hampered by the fact that Greenland currently obtains nearly half of its governmental budget — around 3 billion kroner ($520 million) per year — from Denmark.

Today, less than 20% of Greenland is free of ice — that's some 410,000 square kilometres in a disjointed strip around the edge. More than a quarter of the 57,000-strong population lives in the capital Nuuk, with no roads to connect smaller communities separated by ice. The CIA world fact book lists their economy as critically dependent on fisheries and subsidies, with 0% arable land and no proven oil and gas reserves.

But melting ice is bringing bounty — and bounty hunters — to Greenland's shores. There is improving agriculture and hopes for better fisheries catches, more mineral mining opportunities and better access to potentially vast offshore oil and gas reserves. Greenlanders are gambling that there's gold in their future, and want to secure economic independence (and the right to further profits from natural resources) before that gold is found.

Fish and chips

Greenland is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world1. In the south, farmers now grow crops such as potatoes, which would have been laughable a decade ago. The major fisheries resource — shrimp — is moving north as waters warm, but halibut takes are on the rise and cod may be recovering. A 2007 review of the economic impact of climate change on Greenland's fisheries concluded the effects are "highly likely to be positive and quite substantial"2.

The US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that there may be the equivalent of 17 billion barrels of oil (as oil or natural gas) lurking beneath the seabed west of Greenland, and 31 billion barrels to the east. "There are significant resources there, in our opinion. But there's a lot of uncertainty in the Arctic," says Brenda Pierce, coordinator of the USGS Energy Resources Program. Should their GREENLANDARCTIC_slideshow.swf">estimates be correct, it would make the eastern Greenland oil and gas cache the 19th largest in the world, ranking ahead of provinces including Alaska, for example, which sits at spot 24. In January 2008, Greenland's Bureau of Mines and Petroleum awarded its first oil and gas leases, for areas off its west coast, which is already free of sea ice for much of the year. Dramatic declines are expected in sea ice; they anticipate a similar lease sale for the east coast in 2012.

Rock stars

Greenland is also rich, in principle, with metals and gemstones, including diamonds and rubies. Development has been slow – there are only two working mines on the island – but exploration is gearing up. The ratio of rock to glacier is not expected to change substantially, but new areas are opening as inland ice retreats, according to geologist Henrik Stendal of Greenland's Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum in Nuuk. Right now, Angus & Ross, an exploration and mining company based in the United Kingdom, has an exploration license for a new Maarmorilik zinc-lead mine in the Uummannaq district, and London Mining is exploring the iron ore possibilities in Isua, near Nuuk.

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"Mineral exploration companies are aware of global warming; they're just waiting to see what happens," says Harold Newman, who is in charge of the USGS assessment of Greenland's mineral resources. "Companies are looking at 10-15 years from now."

Locals are encouraged to get into the action too: a uniquely Greenlandic competition called the Ujarassiorit, translating as 'go and look for rocks', sees residents compete annually to find the rock with the greatest mineral potential.

Of course, the melting of Greenland's ice spells potential disaster for millions of people living in low-lying areas around the world, and is just one symptom of the planet's dangerous transition to a warmer climate. But for the people of Greenland, the local effects could bring them wealth and financial independence – most probably in the form of oil, which will make the world warmer yet.