If the need for media freak-outs weren’t unending, then Donald Trump bailing on Denmark and saying stupid things about American Jews this week would be seen as obnoxious but historically unimportant incidents. Even so, both provocations were typical of this president, to say nothing of the tweets referring to himself as “the second coming,” and you have to wonder if even checked-out Americans are starting to tire of the nonsense. The official line is that Trump will be a formidable candidate in 2020. As Montana governor Steve Bullock said in the latest round of debates, “He will be hard to beat.” And it’s no wonder, because complacency spells defeat. But with the president having another oh-so-Trumpy week, you could argue that Trump’s chances of reelection are, if anything, being inflated.

Could Trump win again? Of course. But let’s be honest: his first victory was a miracle. A second, after four years of embarrassments and betrayals in office, might take an act of God.

The best you can say for Trump is that he became less scary to a lot more people, and the devil you know is always preferable to some. But Trump’s appeal to disaffected voters rested on his attacks against the Republican establishment from the right and left. From the right, he was talking way tougher on the border. From the left, he was lambasting Republican orthodoxies on trade, drug prices, and, most important of all, Iraq. You could see a hint of a realignment of U.S. politics that would have ditched both a long-standing economic fanaticism on the right and a burgeoning social fanaticism on the left. Obama Democrats in small but crucial numbers flipped to Trump to give it a whirl.

But it’s hard to imagine many of them like what they got. As we know, Trump outsourced his agenda to Paul Ryan and the Republican establishment, reneging on multiple core promises that might have appealed to the middle: new infrastructure, better health care coverage, more controlled immigration, and less war. Instead, he tried and failed to kill Obamacare with nothing better to replace it, and he delivered tax cuts to rich people. On any points that he had left vague—such as labor support—he sided with capital. His foreign policy has been bombastic and clumsy and, as in the case of trying to purchase Greenland this week, downright imperialist rather than nationalist. As for the idea of swamp-draining, that fast became a joke.

So where is Trump now? Only 34% of voters like what he did on taxes. Just over 50% of voters believe Trump is racist. Trump dwells in the doldrums of approval ratings in the low 40s, and a great week is when they exceed 45%. Trump’s defenders point out that Barack Obama had ratings nearly as low as that at a similar point in his first term, but tiny differences can be decisive in an election. Obama’s lowest approval rating ever as measured by Gallup was 41%. Trump’s has been 35%. Obama’s highest disapproval rating was 53%, and most of his presidency saw that number staying in the 40s, while Trump’s highest disapproval rating has been 60%, and most of his presidency has seen that number staying in the 50s. In short, over half the country has an unfavorable view of the man, about as bad as those of George W. Bush just after Hurricane Katrina.

Lots of partisan Republicans love Donald Trump, but partisans will always stick with their teams. For those who care more about ideology or certain issues, Trump has proved fickle. Strict border control and staunch support for the Second Amendment are crucial to millions of Deplorables, but Trump’s understanding of either matter is only superficial. When something like a mass shooting happens, he’ll issue a seat-of-the-pants call for universal background checks and then, feeling the heat, walk it back. Trump is too lazy about policy to understand why his base gets so worked up about this sort of stuff, whether it’s Dreamers or bump stocks. Why not keep military-grade guns away from crazy people? Why not let good kids stay in the USA? But specifics are of the essence, and one-issue voters see all the traps that Trump doesn’t. Each time he wanders away from earlier pledges, they get more discouraged. Why would they be energized to hit the voting booth?