OTTAWA — A new poll is suggesting that Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s support in B.C. has been sliced by more than half since the 2011 election.

The Insights West poll of the voting intentions of 815 British Columbians puts Tom Mulcair’s NDP at 41 per cent in B.C., compared to 24 per cent for the Liberals, 22 per cent for Harper’s Conservatives, and 12 per cent for Elizabeth May’s Green Party.

The Conservatives got 45.6 per cent of the vote in 2011, its best performance since the party was created in 2003, and took 21 of 36 seats.

The poll, the latest of several to suggest the NDP is in a position to take a majority of B.C.’s 42 seats, should be viewed with caution given that the election is almost two months away and that pollsters failed to predict the 2013 B.C. election. As well, the Insights West survey was undertaken during a period of bad publicity over revelations at the Mike Duffy trial.

Still, the results will do little to boost Tory morale on the West Coast.

It suggests that the Duffy trial has worsened animosity towards the notion of a re-elected Conservative government, according to pollster Mario Canseco.

He said Harper is struggling to reach voters early in the campaign due to media focus on revelations at the trial, which has centred on attempts by Harper’s closest aides to keep secret from Canadians the fact that Duffy did not personally repay taxpayers for inappropriate spending.

“They’re having trouble getting their message out,” Canseco said.

The poll suggested that 75 per cent of decided respondents, including close to half (43 per cent) of those who said they voted Tory in 2011, say it’s time for a change.

“In addition, 60 per cent of British Columbians say they would be ‘very upset’ if the Tories form the government again. The level of animosity towards a possible victory by either the Liberal Party or the NDP is significantly smaller (36 per cent and 33 per cent respectively),” according to Insight West.

If valid, the results would confirm University of B.C. political scientist Richard Johnston’s recent comment to The Vancouver Sun that “there’s a B.C. thing going on about Harper.”

Johnston said voter antipathy has been triggered by issues ranging from pipeline controversies to the closure of the Kitsilano Coast Guard station.

Door-knocking MPs like the NDP’s Kennedy Stewart, meanwhile, say there is even deeper anxiety about the economy and especially housing affordability.

Canseco said his firm is releasing a new poll Wednesday on public opinion in Alberta, and the data will show a strong B.C.-Alberta divide on the coming election. Harper’s approval rating is well over 50 per cent and is far above his rivals there, Canseco said.

The Insights West poll of B.C. public opinion is consistent with recent data from various firms collected by CBC poll analyst Eric Grenier. His website, threehundredeight.com, has the NDP at 39.8 per cent in B.C., compared to 25.3 per cent for the Liberals, 23.1 per cent for the Conservatives, 10.7 per cent for the Greens, and one per cent for “other.”