TX GOP Governor race – Medina gaining most ground after second debate

No official telephone surveys have been release showing the polling numbers after the Belo Texas Republican Governor Debate held on Friday night January 30th.

In the interest of reporting what is out there as far as data goes I have spent the last few hours examining online polls, text message polls and facebook data to try and arrive at some ball park figures.

While this is not 100% scientific the data does coencide with what common sense says about the debate. Gov Perry did better than expected but did not appeal to conservatives. Sen. Hutchison lost a lot of ground and Debra Medina probably won the debate and is taking votes from both Perry and Hutchison.

The latest telephone poll was conducted by Rasmussen on Jan 19, 2010 days after the first debate.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/texas/election_2010_texas_governor

Perry 43%

Hutchison 33%

Medina 12%

Undecided 11%

Medina was at 4% before and months ago Huchison was over 50%. Perry has been attacking Hutchison over her voting for the bailout in Washington and on her pro-choice stand on abortion. His ads have been effective by viewing the above poll data.

I have taken the BELO debate text message poll and scientifically weighed how each candidate is really doing.

I averaged the 5 and 6 pm numbers since some of the same people probably voted in both polls and the numbers were significantly different. The 5-6pm polls were done before the debate and the 10pm poll was taken after the debate.

The numbers from this average 5-6pm text message poll were weighed against the Rassmusen poll so that a “text message factor” could be obtained. This would set each candidates 5-6pm votes to match the Rasmusen poll. I then took the “text message factor” and applied it to the 10pm poll and then factored in 11% undecided voters.

The results are below.

5pm 6pm AVG 10pm RESULTS

Hutchison 30% 24% 27% 10% 16%

Medina 42% 52% 47% 68% 23%

Perry 28% 24% 26% 22% 49%

Undecided 11%

These results show that Medina has gained significantly since the last debate by 11%. Hutchison has lost 17% while Perry has gained 6%. Perry is getting really close to the 50% +1 needed to win. However Medina is quickly gaining speed on him and once the poll data does come out (if ever) the media will place more focus on Medina than they have before. If Perry does not get the required votes to win outright he will be in a run off election with Debra Medina. If Huchison supporters stay home on election day Perry will win the election.

http://www.khou.com/home/Results-KHOU-viewers-participate-in-online-chat-mobile-texts-in-GOP-debate-83092187.html

Could Debra Medina be leading Senator Hutchison in the polls by 7% after the BELO debate Friday January 29th?

No official telephone surveys have been released showing the polling numbers after the Belo Texas Republican Governor Debate held on Friday, January 29th. However by comparing the BELO text messaging poll with the Rasmussen poll we arrive and a very interesting situation.

The latest telephone poll was conducted by Rasmussen on Jan 19, 2010, days after the first debate.

Perry 43%

Hutchison 33%

Medina 12%

Undecided 11%

I have taken the BELO debate text message poll and scientifically weighed how each candidate is really doing.

The numbers are averaged for 5 and 6 pm since some of the same people probably voted in both polls and the numbers were significantly different. The 5-6pm polls were done before the debate and the 10pm poll was taken after the debate.

The numbers from this average 5 – 6 pm text message poll were weighed against the Rassmusen poll so that a “text message factor” could be obtained. This would set each candidate's 5 – 6 pm votes to match the Rasmusen poll. I then took the “text message factor” and applied it to the 10 pm poll and then factored in 11% undecided voters.

The results are below:

5pm 6pm AVG 10pm RESULTS

Hutchison 30% 24% 27% 10% 16%

Medina 42% 52% 47% 68% 23%

Perry 28% 24% 26% 22% 49%

Undecided 11%

These results show that Medina has gained significantly since the last debate by 11%. Hutchison has lost 17% while Perry has gained 6%. Perry is getting really close to the 50% + 1 needed to win. However, Medina is quickly gaining speed on him and once the poll data does come out (if ever) the media will place more focus on Medina than they have before.