The Turnbull government’s week of crippling internal warfare over energy policy appears to have triggered a poll nosedive ahead of a critical parliamentary week for the prime minister.



As ministers met in Canberra to thrash out a recalibration of the government’s national energy guarantee and the position on company tax, a new Ipsos poll published by Fairfax Media on Sunday night puts Labor ahead of the Coalition on the two-party-preferred measure 55% to 45%.

The results of the latest Ipsos poll are out of alignment with the two other major opinion polls, Guardian Essential and the Newspoll, which have Labor in front by a much narrower margin – but despite that inconsistency, the timing of the poor result will trigger a fresh round of jitters as government MPs return for the sitting week in Canberra.

The new poll shows a majority, 54% of a sample of 1,200 voters, support the national energy guarantee (Neg), with 22% opposed and 24% not having a position.

Going into Sunday night’s meeting, longtime Turnbull backer Christopher Pyne acknowledged the seriousness of the current power struggle within the government, and the possibility of a move against the prime minister.

“There are some people who don’t support the current leader and that is quite obvious,” Pyne said.

With Peter Dutton being urged by fellow conservatives to spearhead a political reset – a conservative-led drift away from Turnbull that has been in play since the Liberal National party’s rout in the Longman byelection – and with rightwing media commentators agitating against the prime minister, Pyne publicly urged restive colleagues to hold their nerve.

“We have the right policy mix and if we are united we will win the next election,” Pyne said.

Turnbull supporters have been canvassing colleagues throughout the weekend in an attempt to stave off any conflagration when federal parliament resumes on Monday.

Ahead of Sunday night’s meeting, Turnbull took to social media to lay out his revised position on the Neg and attempt to reassure colleagues a comprehensive fix is coming on high power prices, with the government to accept recent recommendations from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.

But Turnbull’s explanation, which included a direct rebuke of Tony Abbott, sparked yet another confrontation with the former prime minister.

Turnbull noted Abbott had previously supported the Paris target he spent much of the last parliamentary week campaigning against. He noted the former prime minister had characterised it in 2015 as a “strong and responsible target, environmentally and economically responsible”.

Abbott responded: “Emissions targets that made sense three years ago when all countries were supposed to be in Paris and we didn’t need policy change and wouldn’t face economic dislocation do not make sense now”.

As well as the rolling death match between Turnbull and Abbott, a proposal to set the Neg’s emissions reduction target by regulation rather than legislation has unsettled many in the party room given that up until last Friday, senior government players were point-blank refusing to countenance that option.

Dutton, who, with the trade minister Steve Ciobo, arrived late for Sunday night’s meeting because of a plane delay, made a public statement of support for Turnbull on Saturday morning, but the comments were nuanced.

The home affairs minister said his view remained the same as last Thursday, when he told the Sydney radio host Ray Hadley he would take up any disagreements he had with cabinet colleagues privately.

Dutton did not disavow the Neg or Turnbull during the interview, but he outlined the circumstances in which he could resign. He said if “it gets to a point where I can’t accept what the government is proposing or I don’t agree”, he would resign from the cabinet.

One conservative MP told Guardian Australia on Sunday there was “no great appetite for Dutton” but he said “where things go from here is anyone’s guess”.

He pointed out that a lot of Dutton’s support in Queensland was from Nationals MPs rather than Liberals, and while the home affairs minister could boost the government’s stocks in some seats where One Nation polls strongly, he would be negative for the government in Victoria and South Australia.

Unveiling drought funding in the New South Wales town of Forbes ahead of Sunday night’s meeting, Turnbull dead-batted questions from reporters about the instability. “I’m focused on getting energy prices down and I’ll leave you to all of the speculation,” the prime minister said.