In voting to defeat a parliamentary motion of no confidence in Jacob Zuma, African National Congress MPs have merely postponed the president’s day of reckoning. The internal party battle to succeed the weakened and unpopular leader is likely to intensify, while South Africa’s chronic economic problems and public disillusionment with the ANC, in power since 1994, seem certain to grow.

Zuma’s survival could be short-lived. He is immersed in spiralling allegations of corruption, mismanagement and personal financial wrongdoing. One of the most notorious is the 2010 purchase of a family home on the exclusive Waterkloof Ridge, overlooking Pretoria. Leaked documents suggest part of the the 5.24m South African rand (£300,000) used to purchase the property came from the Gupta business empire, which is at the heart of the “state capture” scandal.

Zuma potentially faces criminal charges over allegations he received kickbacks linked to government contracts and tenders. Julius Malema, leader of the opposition Economic Freedom Fighters and a high-profile ANC defector, personally lodged charges against Zuma and the Guptas at Johannesburg central police station in June, alleging a huge fraud.

“We’re here because we’re protecting the poor African masses,” Malema said. “We want to protect the South African purse, which Zuma and his friends have turned into a personal purse.”

Ongoing controversy over “state capture” – when private individuals and businesses exert undue influence over government policy – will not evaporate simply because Zuma has survived. Nor will the complaints that triggered Tuesday’s vote: that the president showed “reckless and irrational behaviour” in managing the economy and in sacking successive finance ministers Pravin Gordhan and Nhlanhla Nene.

Mmusi Maimane. Photograph: Gianluigi Guercia/AFP/Getty Images

“[Zuma’s] derelict leadership has resulted in a collapse of public confidence in the president … and ultimately undermined efforts to restore confidence in the South African economy,” the leader of the main opposition Democratic Alliance, Mmusi Maimane, said in proposing the vote.

Maimane’s grim verdict is broadly shared by South Africa’s powerful trade union federation, Cosatu, church leaders, student and academic bodies, and by South African businesses. The value of the rand rose and shares rallied after Monday’s announcement that the vote would be a secret ballot, since that was thought to increase its chances of success. A corresponding negative market reaction can now be expected. The economy is already in dire straits. It slid into recession in March and was downgraded to junk status by two ratings agencies.

The vote’s outcome is a mixed blessing for the ANC. On the one hand, it has maintained a facade of unity and avoided handing the opposition its biggest victory since the beginning of majority rule. On the other hand, the party is now a badly damaged brand, riven by deep fissures and seemingly out of touch with voters. A divisive internal backlash against any ANC MPs who voted to dump Zuma is likely to follow, even though votes were cast anonymously.

The ANC is due to select a replacement leader in December. Zuma will continue as state president until 2019 unless, like his predecessor, Thabo Mbeki, he is forced to quit early. But there is no agreement on who should follow Zuma as party chief. It is possible the vote could be brought forward if his position weakens further.

Half a dozen candidates are jostling for position. They include Cyril Ramaphosa, Zuma’s deputy; Lindiwe Sisulu; Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the president’s former wife; and the speaker of parliament, Baleka Mbete, whose stock has risen following her handling of the ballot. Intense politicking within the ANC hierarchy over the next few months is likely to distract attention from the country’s problems and add to instability.

Disaffection among ANC voters also looks set to increase after the mass anti-Zuma street protests of recent months, with many tempted to abandon the party entirely. This trend is already underway, as evidenced by last year’s municipal election results, when support for the ANC fell to its lowest level since 1994.

The first, big challenge facing Zuma’s successor as ANC leader will be to stop the rot. But analysts predict that if the anti-Zuma faction’s candidate fails to get its top job, the party will split before the 2019 general election.