GOP divided on how to use tax cuts to match Dems' anti-Trump enthusiasm in 2018 midterms

Eliza Collins | USA TODAY

Show Caption Hide Caption Paul Ryan on Penn. race: Both ran as 'conservatives' House Speaker Paul Ryan said Wednesday Conor Lamb won in Pennsylvania's special congressional election because both candidates "ran as conservatives." But he said Lamb's win was unique and not something Democrats will "see a repeat of." (March 14)

WASHINGTON — Republicans thought tax cuts would be their antidote to the surge of voter enthusiasm that Democrats are hoping to harness in the 2018 midterm elections this November.

But after emphasizing the December tax law failed to prevent Democrat Conor Lamb's apparent victory Tuesday in a Pennsylvania district that President Trump carried by 20 percentage points, Republicans in Congress are divided over what to do next.

Party leaders, dismissing the conservative Democrat Lamb's candidacy as a fluke that's unlikely to be reproduced around the country, say the answer is to push the tax message more effectively and warn voters that Democrats would be eager to raise taxes if they gain control in Congress.

“It’s going to be important that we continue to talk about tax reform,” said Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, a member of House Speaker Paul Ryan's leadership team as chair of the Republican conference. “Yes, there are other priorities, but tax reform is one of our biggest successes and it’s up to us to make sure that America understands the impact of tax reform on their everyday lives.”

To encourage lawmakers to promote it, McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., gives out an award at weekly conference meetings to the House member who does the best job playing up the benefits of tax reform.

But members of the conservative factions of the GOP say they need to fight enthusiasm with enthusiasm. And that means delivering on promises that seem to have been shelved, such as repealing and replacing Obamacare and slashing federal spending.

“We can’t sit around and talk about tax reform from here to November, we’ve gotta continue to work on what we promised the American people,” Rep. Mark Walker, R-N.C., told USA TODAY on Wednesday after meeting with the roughly 150-member Republican Study Committee that he chairs.

Rep. Warren Davidson, R-Ohio, said that tax reform is popular in his district, "but it can’t be the only thing we talk about.”

Votes on health care and spending “would be meaningful to our base because those are the campaign promises,” Davidson said.

The sweeping tax overhaul enacted with only Republican votes in December could not keep former Republican Rep. Tim Murphy’s seat from turning blue in the special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District this week.

Some in the GOP say the party needs to accept that voters will take into account the bigger picture of what's happening in Washington.

“This election will mostly be a referendum on the president and his conduct in office,” said Rep. Charlie Dent, a retiring moderate Republican from Pennsylvania. “We’ll try to mitigate it as best we can” by talking about tax cuts and the economy.

The tax legislation Congress passed has become more popular since it’s been put into effect. Soon after Trump signed it, companies began to announce employee bonuses, and in February, new payroll withholding tables began to raise workers' paychecks.

But support for the law seems to have leveled off since increasing from 26% in December to 44% in late January, according to polling by Monmouth University. A Monmouth poll last week found 41% approval, with less than one-fourth of Americans, 23%, saying they expect their own taxes will go down.

“Republican leaders were sitting pretty at the beginning of the year as it looked like public opinion on the tax reform plan was swinging in their favor. But there hasn’t been any further movement after that initial bump,” said Patrick Murray, director of Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Democrats need to win 24 seats to take back control of the House. Hillary Clinton won 23 seats currently held by GOP incumbents in 2016.

In the Pennsylvania race, outside GOP groups ran ads touting their tax bill but the polls continued to tighten. Republicans then switched strategies to attacks on Lamb's record. In the final days, not a single ad on the air was on tax reform.

While the race still has not been called, Lamb leads by 627-votes and it appears Republicans are on track to narrowly lose a seat that they’ve held for 15 years.

“Pointing to areas of policy disagreement is always important, as is litigating a candidate’s past to properly inform the electorate of just who this person is,” said Jesse Hunt, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP’s political arm that spent heavily on ads in the Pennsylvania race.

Running ads that focused on the Democrat’s record instead of taxes was no reflection on using tax reform as a campaign issue, he said.

“Tax reform is a political winner for Republicans and it will continue to be,” Hunt said, citing internal polling in battleground districts where approval for tax reform was above 50%.

Democrats point to the lack of airtime about the issue as proof that Republicans had struggled to sell their signature plan.

“This idea that tax cuts would be a political panacea for Republicans come November is losing altitude, fast,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.

Tyler Law, a spokesman for the campaign arm of the Democrats in the House, said the party would continue to make the hitting the tax bill and those who voted for it.

“The Republicans can spin this until they’re blue in the face but ultimately the voters rejected their tax scam because they understand it prioritizes the wealthiest corporations and the wealthiest few,” Law said.

Read more:

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Pennsylvania election will be seen as a bellwether for November even if Democrat Lamb's persona is key

How soon after President Trump signs the tax bill could you see the effects?