Overnight the Victorian Liberal Party switched from defence to offence, eyeing off two "middle-class marginal" seats held by Labor - Bruce and Chisholm - and the ALP moved from a war footing to a strategy of sand-bagging seats. Malcolm Turnbull, pictured riding Melbourne's trams, was seen as a welcome change in Victoria after Tony Abbott's time as prime minister. Credit:Jesse Marlow Despite the renewed Liberal hope, few strategists believe many seats will change hands, given many voters have been disappointed by Mr Turnbull's short reign and Victoria's relative shortage of swing seats. Fairfax-Ipsos polls show his approval rating in Victoria dropping from 69 per cent in October to 54 per cent in April. His disapproval rating has doubled to 36 per cent in the same period. Labor is once again on the attack, eyeing off Corangamite, La Trobe, Deakin and Dunkley: successful field campaigns used at the 2014 state election will again be run by the party and Trades Hall.

Sarah Henderson's Corangamite (3.9 per cent) shapes as the seat most likely to change hands. Once a conservative rural stronghold, Geelong's expanding urban boundaries, combined with population growth in Torquay and the Bellarine Peninsula, has changed the demographics and made the seat marginal. Liberal MP Sarah Henderson's Corangamite is the Victorian seat most likely to change hands. Credit:Andrew Meares And with Ford closing and Alcoa closing it doors, job security and cost of living are front of mind. Labor hardheads are nervous about eastern suburban seats Chisholm (1.6 per cent) and Bruce (1.8 per cent), while Dunkley (5.6 per cent) looms as Labor's dark horse – Bruce Billson's retirement has made the seat marginal with his personal brand worth 2-3 per cent. Sophie Mirabella's attempt to reclaim Indi has already captured the nation's attention. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen.

Victorian voters have different priorities to other states. The "stop the boats" policy has never resonated strongly and the monthly Ipsos issues monitor shows health is the number one priority for Victorians. Nationally, the most pressing issue for voters is the economy. In Victoria, that issue ranks eighth, so it will be interesting to see how the Coalition's focus on transforming the economy resonates in this state. Greens candidate Jason Ball will be up against government frontbencher Kelly O'Dwyer in the fight for Higgins. Credit:Justin McManus Following health, Victorians care about transport, crime, drug abuse and housing, issues that Labor loves to talk about. It is no surprise that transport ranks highly given the constant politicking over how to solve Melbourne's traffic woes.

Mr Turnbull is a keen public transport user, but his focus on road funding through an unsolicited pledge of $1.3 billion for freeway expansions, not to mention his revival of the East West Link, is aimed at voters in marginal eastern suburbs seats. Victoria has been tough territory for the Coalition; it has only topped the two-party preferred vote in the state twice since Bob Hawke was elected, in 1990 and 2004. The latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows Labor with a 53-47 lead in Victoria. Even at Julia Gillard's lowest ebb, Victorians backed her over Mr Abbott - although this parochialism has not been extended to the Melbourne born-and-bred Opposition Leader, Bill Shorten. Last election, the Liberals won just three seats despite the national swing – it also lost Indi to independent Cathy McGowan. In 2010 just three seats changed hands, Labor winning McEwen and La Trobe and the Greens wrestling Melbourne from the ALP. And while it is hard to see Victoria as election-defining it does toss up intriguing individual battles.