Sagarin speaks: How BCS AQ teams help non-AQ teams

Craig Bennett | USA TODAY Sports

Think of the world of major college football as a pond and all the teams as leaves floating on the surface.

The result of every game is a stone dropped into the pond. The ripples spread and in some way affect every leaf in the pond.

Teams that don't play each other still might have a common opponent. How those common opponents fare, in the world of computer ratings, also reflect on the teams they have played.

"It's an infinite loop in the computer," says Jeff Sagarin of the all the connections and permutations. "It goes on and on."

Sagarin is a 1970 mathematics graduate of MIT, and his computer ratings have been a staple of USA TODAY Sports since 1985. From the very start of the Bowl Championship Series in 1998, his college football ratings have been part of the formula that determines the BCS standings.

For a team in a league without an automatic bid to the BCS, such as Northern Illinois of the Mid-American Conference and Fresno State of the Mountain West, playing — and especially defeating — teams in the automatic-bid leagues (American Athletic, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, Southeastern) brings multiple benefits.

The win itself brings additional respect from voters in the human polls, which are two-thirds of the BCS formula. But merely playing the game also means inheriting a bump from the usually stronger schedule of the opponent, which is a factor in the computer ratings.

Most of the time the team from the non-AQ league is the visitor in such matchups. Winning in that situation brings even more weight in the computers.

In his BCS formula, Sagarin says, "for teams that are undefeated the tail that wags the dog is what's your best victory? ... If you played somebody on the road it makes that game 'tougher' for you."

Northern Illinois (8-0) has beaten two Big Ten teams on the road this year, Iowa and Purdue. The Huskies are third in Sagarin's BCS ratings this week and 17th in the overall BCS standings.

Not only does NIU benefit from the strength of those team's schedules, but also the schedules of all their opponents. Purdue this week hosts unbeaten Ohio State, No. 4 in the BCS standings. Iowa hosts Wisconsin, which is No. 24.

Fresno State (7-0) has a win — albeit at home — against an American Athletic Conference team, Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights own a victory against Arkansas of the mighty Southeastern Conference. Fresno State is 14th in Sagarin's BCS rating this week and 16th in the overall BCS standings.

Where the teams are in the overall BCS standings is vital. A team from a non-AQ league that is among the top 12 in the final BCS standings automatically lands an at-large bid to a BCS game. A team among the final top 16 — and ahead of the champion from an AQ league — also automatically gets an at-large spot.

Central Florida leads the American Athletic Conference, an AQ league this year, but is 23rd in the BCS standings this week.

So Fresno State is right where it needs to be, for now.

However, the Bulldogs lost an opportunity to inherit the schedule from another AQ league, the Pac-12, and boost their computer résumé last month when their game at Colorado was canceled because of the flooding in and around Boulder.

Based on where all the teams stand this week in Sagarin's ratings, he says a Fresno State win at Colorado would have put them seventh in his BCS formula.

A significant ripple washed away by a flood.