Monday night kicked off the official National Jump To Conclusions week. Everything we need to know we learned in week 1. So how do the rankings shake out?

All the teams that won are going 16-0, all the teams that lost are going 0-16. Or so it seems based on the way the pundits are talking

Okay, maybe it's not really that bad, but it seems that way sometimes. Like clockwork, there are a couple teams we're all ready to anoint, and a couple teams that are already vying for the top pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.

And of course, there have been a few surprises this week, and that's reflected in this week's rankings. A lot of teams are on the move, while a few stand pat.

Notable Quotes

After falling behind 21-3, the Chargers rattled off 30 unanswered points in a span of about 32 minutes Sunday. Detroit would have needed a tarp to cover Keenan Allen during that run. He finally looked like his dynamic, rookie-year self again. - Sports Illustrated

Their offense looked diverse and super-charged as the version that got them into the playoffs a couple seasons ago, storming back with their lightning-quick receivers. Fire on, Philip Rivers. - Sporting News

Philip Rivers looks primed for a bounce-back season after adding Stevie Johnson to his arsenal. The Chargers’ defensive line is finally showing signs of improvement, but the offensive line is still a major concern, especially after losing top lineman D.J. Fluker to a high ankle sprain. - Fox Sports

Division Averages

Division Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference AFC East 13.942 10.600 3.342 NFC West 14.218 10.949 3.269 AFC West 14.615 13.825 0.790 AFC North 14.250 16.075 -1.825 NFC North 14.558 17.825 -3.267 NFC East 16.769 17.950 -1.181 AFC South 20.885 21.838 -0.953 NFC South 22.827 22.425 0.402

Stock Rising

Team Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference TEN 30.681 21.485 9.196 NYJ 24.139 16.768 7.371 STL 21.111 14.369 6.742 BUF 15.556 8.985 6.571 SF 22.083 15.828 6.255

Stock Falling

Team Week 1 Average Week 2 Average Difference IND 5.694 13.535 -7.841 MIN 16.653 23.616 -6.963 PHI 8.458 13.879 -5.421 DET 13.097 18.263 -5.166 HOU 18.569 23.475 -4.906

Subjective Average

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP Average Change in Value Patriots 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1.273 0.838 Packers 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1.727 1.051 Broncos 4 3 6 3 3 3 9 3 3 4 3 4.000 1.333 Cowboys 5 4 3 11 6 4 8 4 7 5 4 5.546 0.787 Seahawks 3 6 10 4 5 9 3 5 8 3 5 5.546 -2.990 Cardinals 6 5 4 10 4 8 5 6 4 6 6 5.818 3.515 Bengals 8 12 5 7 7 10 7 13 11 7 7 8.546 3.343 Bills 9 7 12 8 10 5 6 14 6 10 8 8.636 8.475 Chiefs 7 11 7 16 9 7 4 16 5 8 9 9.000 4.444 Colts 11 10 13 6 11 11 10 7 10 9 14 10.182 -5.293 Ravens 12 14 9 5 13 6 17 12 13 12 12 11.364 -4.142 Chargers 10 13 16 15 8 15 11 15 14 11 10 12.546 2.121 Rams 14 9 15 9 14 13 12 18 15 17 11 13.364 7.858 Steelers 13 19 8 14 20 14 13 9 12 13 13 13.455 -5.011 Dolphins 16 8 14 13 12 12 14 10 18 16 15 13.455 -0.122 Eagles 15 17 20 12 16 19 19 8 9 14 17 15.091 -5.424 Panthers 18 22 11 17 17 18 15 11 20 19 16 16.727 1.273 Falcons 17 16 17 20 15 16 18 17 17 18 18 17.182 5.262 49ers 19 15 21 18 19 17 21 19 16 20 19 18.546 6.121 Lions 20 18 22 23 18 22 16 23 19 15 20 19.636 -6.192 Jets 21 20 18 19 21 26 20 20 25 21 21 21.091 3.687 Giants 24 23 19 25 24 24 22 21 24 22 22 22.727 -2.616 Saints 22 24 26 22 23 23 23 24 21 23 24 23.182 -3.182 Vikings 25 26 24 21 22 20 24 22 22 27 25 23.455 -7.899 Titans 23 21 23 26 27 25 26 25 27 25 23 24.636 5.475 Texans 26 25 27 24 25 21 25 26 23 24 26 24.727 -6.838 Bears 27 27 25 27 26 28 27 27 26 26 27 26.636 -0.858 Redskins 29 28 30 28 29 30 29 28 28 29 28 28.727 2.273 Jaguars 30 31 28 29 30 27 28 29 31 31 29 29.364 -0.920 Browns 28 32 29 32 28 29 31 30 29 28 31 29.727 -1.727 Raiders 31 29 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 30 30 30.364 -2.586 Buccaneers 32 30 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 31.727 -2.060

Observations:

Patriots and Packers duking it out at the top, with the Patriots successfully defending their throne this week. Both teams face big tests this week, with the Patriots heading to Buffalo and the Packers hosting the Seahawks.

Broncos actually jumped 1.333 spots this week, despite the less-than-convincing win on Sunday.

Rams and Bills made statements, and pundits noticed.

Seahawks, Ravens, and Eagles all dropping out of the sky. Cardinals and Falcons climbing quickly.

Steelers and Colts also dropping considerably. And the Vikings ... woof.

Chargers impressed a bit, cracking into the top-12.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective ESPN Fox CBS USA SI PFT NFL SN SBN Reddit AP STD DEV Change in Value Packers 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 0.445 -0.471 Patriots 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0.445 -0.549 Buccaneers 32 30 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.617 -0.947 Raiders 31 29 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 30 30 0.643 -0.387 Redskins 29 28 30 28 29 30 29 28 28 29 28 0.750 -0.193 Bears 27 27 25 27 26 28 27 27 26 26 27 0.771 -1.325 Saints 22 24 26 22 23 23 23 24 21 23 24 1.266 -0.995 Falcons 17 16 17 20 15 16 18 17 17 18 18 1.266 -0.626 Jaguars 30 31 28 29 30 27 28 29 31 31 29 1.298 -1.017 Browns 28 32 29 32 28 29 31 30 29 28 31 1.483 -0.921 Texans 26 25 27 24 25 21 25 26 23 24 26 1.601 -0.682 Giants 24 23 19 25 24 24 22 21 24 22 22 1.656 -2.519 Cardinals 6 5 4 10 4 8 5 6 4 6 6 1.749 0.185 Broncos 4 3 6 3 3 3 9 3 3 4 3 1.809 -0.135 Titans 23 21 23 26 27 25 26 25 27 25 23 1.823 -0.555 49ers 19 15 21 18 19 17 21 19 16 20 19 1.827 0.413 Vikings 25 26 24 21 22 20 24 22 22 27 25 2.105 0.682 Colts 11 10 13 6 11 11 10 7 10 9 14 2.208 0.613 Cowboys 5 4 3 11 6 4 8 4 7 5 4 2.231 0.020 Jets 21 20 18 19 21 26 20 20 25 21 21 2.275 -0.118 Seahawks 3 6 10 4 5 9 3 5 8 3 5 2.350 -0.237 Bengals 8 12 5 7 7 10 7 13 11 7 7 2.426 0.977 Chargers 10 13 16 15 8 15 11 15 14 11 10 2.536 -0.003 Lions 20 18 22 23 18 22 16 23 19 15 20 2.603 -0.230 Bills 9 7 12 8 10 5 6 14 6 10 8 2.603 -1.625 Dolphins 16 8 14 13 12 12 14 10 18 16 15 2.742 -0.125 Rams 14 9 15 9 14 13 12 18 15 17 11 2.805 0.993 Panthers 18 22 11 17 17 18 15 11 20 19 16 3.250 -0.722 Ravens 12 14 9 5 13 6 17 12 13 12 12 3.310 0.374 Steelers 13 19 8 14 20 14 13 9 12 13 13 3.394 -0.291 Chiefs 7 11 7 16 9 7 4 16 5 8 9 3.766 0.298 Eagles 15 17 20 12 16 19 19 8 9 14 17 3.825 1.076

Observations:

Didn't take long to reach consensus at either end of the board, it seems.

Overall, standard deviation went down this week for each team, so there is consensus starting to form already.

What to make of the Eagles?

Objective Average

Objective FO TR SAG BG Aikman CHFF Massey ARGH FPI Average Change in Value Packers 4 3 1 8 8 4 5 5 1 4.333 -0.583 Patriots 1 1 4 11 10 8 1 1 2 4.333 -2.083 Broncos 3 4 2 12 5 13 2 3 6 5.556 -2.556 Bengals 5 7 5 3 6 3 11 7 7 6.000 5.750 Seahawks 2 2 3 19 18 4 2 3 6.625 -5.375 Chiefs 7 6 9 9 11 6 3 4 11 7.333 0.167 Cardinals 15 15 10 6 3 7 10 6 12 9.333 2.917 Bills 17 14 11 5 7 1 6 9 14 9.333 4.667 Jets 9 17 18 2 1 5 19 25 16 12.444 11.056 Cowboys 18 13 8 16 14 16 7 14 8 12.667 -3.167 Chargers 8 11 15 13 16 14 9 11 17 12.667 0.583 Eagles 12 9 12 18 12 18 18 10 5 12.667 -5.417 49ers 16 22 21 4 4 9 13 8 21 13.111 6.389 Dolphins 21 8 7 10 24 11 14 16 13 13.778 -1.278 Ravens 11 10 6 21 28 20 8 17 9 14.444 -5.444 Panthers 20 18 20 7 13 10 17 12 15 14.667 4.333 Rams 6 16 17 14 15 15 21 19 15.375 5.625 Steelers 10 12 14 23 23 22 16 18 10 16.444 -3.444 Lions 14 20 16 20 17 12 20 13 20 16.889 -4.139 Colts 19 5 13 28 26 30 12 15 4 16.889 -10.389 Titans 25 26 27 1 2 2 28 29 25 18.333 12.917 Falcons 13 25 22 15 21 15 21 23 23 19.778 4.472 Giants 23 21 19 17 19 17 23 24 24 20.778 0.472 Texans 27 23 23 22 22 24 22 19 18 22.222 -2.972 Vikings 22 19 25 29 29 19 25 20 26 23.778 -6.028 Saints 24 24 24 27 30 26 24 22 22 24.778 -3.778 Redskins 31 29 28 24 9 21 30 28 28 25.333 3.667 Bears 26 27 26 25 25 27 26 26 27 26.111 -0.611 Jaguars 30 31 31 26 20 23 31 31 29 28.000 3.500 Browns 28 28 29 31 32 28 27 27 30 28.889 -2.389 Raiders 29 30 30 30 27 25 29 30 31 29.000 -0.500 Buccaneers 32 32 32 32 31 29 32 32 32 31.556 -1.806

Observations:

I've added a new source: ESPN's Football Power Index.

You'll notice CHFF is missing rankings for the Seahawks and Rams. For some reason this week, they only listed 30 teams.

These objective ratings should be taken with a grain of salt overall. Some individual rankings can be reliable, for the most part our sample size is just too small to put a lot of stock in these rankings.

BeatGraphs was neat this week. You'll notice the opponents who played each other this week are on opposing ends of the spectrum. Titans 1st, Buccaneers 32nd. Jets 2nd, Browns 31st. Chargers 13th, Lions 20th and so on.

Packers and Patriots neck-and-neck this week. This is likely to change.

Football Outsiders' ranking is based on DAVE this week.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective FO TR SAG BG Aikman CHFF Massey ARGH FPI STD DEV Change in Value Bears 26 27 26 25 25 27 26 26 27 0.737 -1.325 Buccaneers 32 32 32 32 31 29 32 32 32 0.956 0.127 Browns 28 28 29 31 32 28 27 27 30 1.663 1.163 Raiders 29 30 30 30 27 25 29 30 31 1.764 1.264 Bengals 5 7 5 3 6 3 11 7 7 2.309 0.389 Saints 24 24 24 27 30 26 24 22 22 2.393 1.168 Packers 4 3 1 8 8 4 5 5 1 2.404 1.314 Texans 27 23 23 22 22 24 22 19 18 2.485 1.006 Giants 23 21 19 17 19 17 23 24 24 2.699 0.779 Chiefs 7 6 9 9 11 6 3 4 11 2.708 0.208 Chargers 8 11 15 13 16 14 9 11 17 2.944 1.645 Lions 14 20 16 20 17 12 20 13 20 3.107 -0.455 Vikings 22 19 25 29 29 19 25 20 26 3.735 1.149 Cowboys 18 13 8 16 14 16 7 14 8 3.801 0.929 Jaguars 30 31 31 26 20 23 31 31 29 3.859 3.359 Broncos 3 4 2 12 5 13 2 3 6 3.919 3.919 Cardinals 15 15 10 6 3 7 10 6 12 3.944 0.675 Patriots 1 1 4 11 10 8 1 1 2 3.944 2.854 Falcons 13 25 22 15 21 15 21 23 23 4.049 2.750 Rams 6 16 17 14 15 15 21 19 4.151 1.069 Panthers 20 18 20 7 13 10 17 12 15 4.269 1.441 Eagles 12 9 12 18 12 18 18 10 5 4.295 2.996 Bills 17 14 11 5 7 1 6 9 14 4.831 2.092 Steelers 10 12 14 23 23 22 16 18 10 5.036 1.954 Dolphins 21 8 7 10 24 11 14 16 13 5.412 1.381 Redskins 31 29 28 24 9 21 30 28 28 6.464 5.464 49ers 16 22 21 4 4 9 13 8 21 6.839 1.249 Seahawks 2 2 3 19 18 4 2 3 6.891 6.458 Ravens 11 10 6 21 28 20 8 17 9 6.978 2.677 Jets 9 17 18 2 1 5 19 25 16 7.974 5.795 Colts 19 5 13 28 26 30 12 15 4 9.024 6.962 Titans 25 26 27 1 2 2 28 29 25 11.851 11.022

Observations:

Surprisingly good consensus of the Bears at ~26th, and Buccaneers as the bottom team.

Bengals have pretty good consensus around ~6th (can you say statement game for the Chargers in week 2?)

Titans with a standard deviation of almost 12. That's to be expected when your rankings run anywhere from 1st to 29th.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Average Change in Value Patriots 1.273 4.333 2.803 -0.622 Packers 1.727 4.333 3.030 0.234 Broncos 4.000 5.556 4.778 -0.611 Seahawks 5.546 6.625 6.085 -4.182 Bengals 8.546 6.000 7.273 4.546 Cardinals 5.818 9.333 7.576 3.216 Chiefs 9.000 7.333 8.167 2.305 Bills 8.636 9.333 8.985 6.571 Cowboys 5.546 12.667 9.106 -1.189 Chargers 12.546 12.667 12.606 1.352 Ravens 11.364 14.444 12.904 -4.793 Colts 10.182 16.889 13.535 -7.841 Dolphins 13.455 13.778 13.616 -0.699 Eagles 15.091 12.667 13.879 -5.421 Rams 13.364 15.375 14.369 6.742 Steelers 13.455 16.444 14.949 -4.227 Panthers 16.727 14.667 15.697 2.803 49ers 18.546 13.111 15.828 6.255 Jets 21.091 12.444 16.768 7.371 Lions 19.636 16.889 18.263 -5.166 Falcons 17.182 19.778 18.480 4.867 Titans 24.636 18.333 21.485 9.196 Giants 22.727 20.778 21.753 -1.072 Texans 24.727 22.222 23.475 -4.906 Vikings 23.455 23.778 23.616 -6.963 Saints 23.182 24.778 23.980 -3.480 Bears 26.636 26.111 26.374 -0.735 Redskins 28.727 25.333 27.030 2.970 Jaguars 29.364 28.000 28.682 1.290 Browns 29.727 28.889 29.308 -2.058 Raiders 30.364 29.000 29.682 -1.543 Buccaneers 31.727 31.556 31.641 -1.933

Observations:

Patriots take the overall crown, but just barely, remaining only .167 spots ahead of the Packers.

Sharp delineation between the Cowboys and Chargers, and Falcons and Titans.

9 of the top 13 teams are AFC teams. 8 of the bottom 13 teams are NFC teams.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg STD DEV Change in Value Buccaneers 31.727 31.556 0.792 -0.588 Bears 26.636 26.111 0.800 -1.290 Raiders 30.364 29.000 1.445 0.484 Browns 29.727 28.889 1.621 -0.514 Saints 23.182 24.778 2.022 -0.031 Packers 1.727 4.333 2.095 1.024 Giants 22.727 20.778 2.393 -1.278 Texans 24.727 22.222 2.396 0.234 Bengals 8.546 6.000 2.691 1.081 Chargers 12.546 12.667 2.728 0.402 Jaguars 29.364 28.000 2.844 0.441 Vikings 23.455 23.778 2.956 0.838 Broncos 4.000 5.556 3.051 1.108 Patriots 1.273 4.333 3.070 2.044 Falcons 17.182 19.778 3.151 1.229 Lions 19.636 16.889 3.153 0.061 Cardinals 5.818 9.333 3.426 0.820 Chiefs 9.000 7.333 3.433 -0.783 Rams 13.364 15.375 3.577 1.295 Bills 8.636 9.333 3.788 -0.304 Panthers 16.727 14.667 3.881 0.193 Dolphins 13.455 13.778 4.164 0.871 Eagles 15.091 12.667 4.219 1.574 Steelers 13.455 16.444 4.468 0.376 Cowboys 5.546 12.667 4.668 1.829 Redskins 28.727 25.333 4.686 3.354 Seahawks 5.546 6.625 4.845 2.597 49ers 18.546 13.111 5.495 1.410 Ravens 11.364 14.444 5.503 1.991 Jets 21.091 12.444 7.068 4.665 Colts 10.182 16.889 7.104 5.201 Titans 24.636 18.333 8.652 6.554

Observations:

Overall Standard Deviation grew this week, but that's because we have a lot more objective rankings this week, and they're more prone to individual swings at this point.

Buccaneers: your Week 1 disappointment.

Much more consensus on who's bad than who's good. 9 of the 12 most consistently-ranked teams are in the bottom 22 of the league.

Titans, Colts, and Jets are all over the board.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj Subj Avg Obj Avg Diff. in Avg Change in Value Cowboys 5.546 12.667 7.121 3.954 Colts 10.182 16.889 6.707 5.096 Cardinals 5.818 9.333 3.515 0.598 Ravens 11.364 14.444 3.081 1.303 Patriots 1.273 4.333 3.061 2.922 Steelers 13.455 16.444 2.990 -1.566 Packers 1.727 4.333 2.606 1.634 Falcons 17.182 19.778 2.596 0.790 Rams 13.364 15.375 2.011 2.233 Saints 23.182 24.778 1.596 0.596 Broncos 4.000 5.556 1.556 3.889 Seahawks 5.546 6.625 1.080 2.386 Bills 8.636 9.333 0.697 3.808 Vikings 23.455 23.778 0.323 -1.871 Dolphins 13.455 13.778 0.323 1.156 Chargers 12.546 12.667 0.121 1.538 Buccaneers 31.727 31.556 -0.172 -0.255 Bears 26.636 26.111 -0.525 -0.247 Browns 29.727 28.889 -0.838 0.662 Jaguars 29.364 28.000 -1.364 -4.420 Raiders 30.364 29.000 -1.364 -2.086 Chiefs 9.000 7.333 -1.667 4.277 Giants 22.727 20.778 -1.950 -3.089 Panthers 16.727 14.667 -2.061 -3.061 Eagles 15.091 12.667 -2.424 -0.007 Texans 24.727 22.222 -2.505 -3.866 Bengals 8.546 6.000 -2.546 -2.407 Lions 19.636 16.889 -2.748 -2.054 Redskins 28.727 25.333 -3.394 -1.394 49ers 18.546 13.111 -5.434 -0.267 Titans 24.636 18.333 -6.303 -7.442 Jets 21.091 12.444 -8.647 -7.369

Observations:

Cowboys and Colts were not too impressive in their first game as far as the stat-heads are concerned.

Titans, Jets, and 49ers may surprise a lot of people. Teams that have been easy to discount and dismiss this year seemingly played better in week 1 than people want to give them credit.

Chargers are right where they should be, with only 0.121 spots separating the Subjective from the Objective.

Sources