UPDATE, The HMH-463 CO Lt Col Edward J. Pavelka got relieved 3 days before the crash. He was apparently relieved because he was unable to keep the unit up to the Marine Corps standards but this was possibly not the only reason. He was a test pilot director and part of the development team for the CH-53K. He had just gotten a patent approved for Sikorsky involving Deceleration to hover modulation, published on October 15th 2015. It seems he had a lot of money behind this project especially if the Marine Corps signs on for the CH-53K. He was hoping to be the CO of one of these new CH-53K squadrons but that seems less likely now with being relieved on his record. He has personal and financial gain too behind this matter which the Marine Corp does not want. Lt Col Edward J. Pavelka along with Sikorsky and Lockheed Martin are all involved in this Helicopter Crash. Adding to all of this, outlined in Sikorsky's plan for CH-53K development hinges on the bring the helicopter to Kaneohe Bay Hawaii. They have MILCON planned for CH-53 Infrastructure upgrade after development and production of the CH-53K. They had one more MILCON in New River but those plans were sunk in 2014. It just happens that the same squadron and base where the helicopters crashed from were the ones Sikorsky are trying to get a contract with the Marine Corps to replace.

The Truth Behind the HMH-463 Tragedy

As you may have heard, two Sikorsky CH-53E helicopters recently crashed offshore of Haleiwa Hawaii. They were on a routine nighttime training mission and failed to check in with their unit HMH-463, on Marine Corps Base Hawaii, around 2240 on Jan 14th 2015. What you may not know is there are many hidden realties behind this tragic event. The Coast Guard initially said that the two helicopters may have collided and that was widely reported, but Marine Capt. Timothy Irish said Friday that he did not know if the accident was a collision.

The first thing that struck me a little odd were the witness recounts of what happened. Elaray Navarro, a retiree who lives across the street from the beach, said she heard two booms late Thursday that were loud enough to shake her house. "I threw my blanket off, put my slippers on and ran outside thinking it was a car accident," she said. The Coast Guard was notified of the crash by a civilian on a beach who saw the aircraft flying then disappear and a fireball. Another person reported a flare in the sky, Coast Guard spokesman Lt. Scott Carr said. From my past aviation experience and extensive research, if the two had collided over water there would not be two distinct explosions and a huge fireball occurring midair. Also helicopters do not usually use flares or chaff in an emergency situation such as this, they are mainly a decoy to oncoming missiles. Upon further review and investigation into many helicopter collisions and CH-53 crashes, I have not came across a video or anecdote involving them exploding midair unless a missile was involved.

The other detail I found suspicious was the crew did not issue a mayday call. Possibly because they did not have time to react or were preoccupied with the situation at hand. If they had collided a mayday call across the radio is part of their Standard Operating Procedure (SOP). In the event of an emergency they need to alert authorities if they are able to. This is not something that would likely happen during an emergency situation such as a collision, which they train for. It was then that it came to me, the helicopters probably did release chaff because they were targeted by an incoming missile. They did not issue a mayday call because it was a last second reaction, they wouldn't expecting an attack over friendly waters. The helicopters were only a few miles off shore and a Man Portable Air Defense System (MANPAD) could be possibly be fired from shore but more likely a boat.

This led to the conclusion that the two distinct explosions were from incoming guided missiles, fired from either a MANPAD or a ship equipped with a surface to air missile system. The chaff would have been released to deter the missiles and because they were training in friendly waters and they were not expecting to encounter such a situation they had prioritized the threat and released chaff instead of issuing a mayday call. The other odd detail was that the coast guard found an empty inflated life raft. They found it where they first found the debris of the helicopter. There wasn't anyone in it and they later found three more empty life rafts. Also they were not successful in finding any bodies or survivors after four days of searching. This strengthens the theory that a boat launched missiles at a helicopter because the assailants could have gathered the crew and any survivors after they destroyed the helicopters.

Then I started to wonder, who would have anything to gain from such an incident? If it were terrorists they would have already claimed responsibility for the attack and used it to promote their their group. If it were another foreign government they would have targeted something with higher value targets and it would be an act of war on the United States. It didn't make any sense, that was until I started researching more about the CH-53E Super Stallion. This helicopter is old, its first flight in 1974 and has been due an upgrade for a while. It turns out that Sikorsky has already been developing its replacement, the CH-53K King Stallion. They are still bidding for the Marine Corps final contract and working out the details for its funding. The program itself has already been delayed multiple times costing the company millions.

In November Lockheed Martin, who is no stranger to its own corruption and questionable strategies, bought Sikorsky from United Technologies Corp. The government was already very weary about this deal because they felt as if Lockheed Martin would have a monopoly in the defense contractor category. There has not been any formal charges brought against them though. Lockheed Martin wouldn't be the only one benefiting from the loss of these helicopters, Sikorsky and even the Marine Corps would be positively effected in a few ways.

In 2010 the Marine Corps agreed to a plan and requested 200 helicopters, even as they pushed its initial flight back to FY 2013, and IOC back to FY 2018. The actual first flight was not completed until 2014 and IOC pushed back another year. The Marine Corps expects to spend $29 billion to buy 200 of the new helicopters, with an initial squadron slated to be ready for combat use by 2019. Reasons for this delay is still a mystery, the program wasn’t experiencing problems, and no reasons were given, beyond statements concerning the program’s aggressive schedule. This created a number of risks for the Marine Corps.