This is a crisis of American making, and more particularly a crisis created by the Trump administration. On Tuesday, there was a briefing by the United States government to various members of what Trump calls the "fake news." You can decide how "fake" they might be (or how much hypocrisy was involved) in this act. It was tough to tell that this was effectively an "official leak," because the reports all referred to anonymous sources. As The Washington Post put it:

North Korea has successfully produced a miniaturized nuclear warhead that can fit inside its missiles, crossing a key threshold on the path to becoming a full-fledged nuclear power, U.S. intelligence officials have concluded in a confidential assessment.

It went on, further making it look like this story was the result of deep investigating by the paper.

"The IC [intelligence community] assesses North Korea has produced nuclear weapons for ballistic missile delivery, to include delivery by ICBM-class missiles," the assessment states, in an excerpt read to The Washington Post. Two U.S. officials familiar with the assessment verified its broad conclusions. It is not known whether the reclusive regime has successfully tested the smaller design, although North Korea officially claimed last year that it had done so. The DIA and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.

The problem here is that the White House itself authorized some senior leaders or briefers to give this information out, but only "on background." According to the unwritten rules of press-relations, that means that the reporters cannot reveal who gave them the information. This allows the administration (theoretically) to maintain deniability, or at least it used to. I've written about this whole process before, here in Esquire.

Bottom Line: This current crisis was created, explicitly, by the decision to release this information, when to release it, and how to release it to the public. All of which explains why I am slightly more worried than I have been in the past.

See, after that initial report kicked up a massive brouhaha, President Trump cranked it up a notch by making what may prove to be one of his dumbest statements ever when he explicitly threatened North Korea that they better not issue so much as a threat.

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“They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.” - Trump on North Korea threats https://t.co/ZhcnVU4zVQ pic.twitter.com/03xLnOihwl — Colin Jones (@colinjones) August 8, 2017

"North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen. He has been very threatening - beyond a normal statement - and as I said they will be met with fire, fury and frankly power the likes of which the world has never seen before."

To which North Korea, automatically, did exactly that. I mean seriously, nobody who has looked at North Korea for more than 10 minutes could possibly be surprised by that response. Almost as soon as Trump's comments hit the news, North Korea made statements about how they are making plans to hit the U.S. territory of Guam. Which essentially makes our president look like a fool, because now he has nowhere to go but to carry out his threat, or admit that he was just talking out of his fourth-point-of-contact. (Now they're spinning it as "improv.") And this is where I start to worry.

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It has long been apparent that this president is not conversant with international issues, military issues, and, apparently, economics. But what he does have is power, specifically, the ability to issue launch orders for various forms of military attacks. Disassociated from realities in all three of those areas, it seems quite possible that this commander-in-chief might, in a fit of pique, actually initiate a new war. (It won't be his fault, in his mind of course, despite the fact that I have just demonstrated how this entire crisis is the creation of his own actions.)

So what am I looking for as a siren?

James Mattis.

If Secretary of Defense Mattis resigns, anytime soon (say in the next few weeks), all bets are off. Why does this worry me? Because Mattis would resign, as I think would national security adviser H.R. McMaster, should an order be issued to commit overt military action. If you see that happen, maybe we should all worry. Until then, relax but monitor.

Robert Bateman can be followed on Twitter @RobertLBateman, you can email him at R_Bateman_LTC@hotmail.com or call him out in the comments section at the Esquire Politics Facebook page.. He is a fellow in the International Security Program at New America.

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