Last Monday a widely circulated story published by the Financial Times suggests that China’s leadership may have decided to place a cap on their country’s carbon emissions, and to do so as soon as 2016. If this is the case, a long standing obstacle currently blocking successful negotiations over a global climate treaty would be removed, placing immense pressure on the United States to follow suit.

The basis of the speculation on China’s future plans to cap carbon emissions – which stand at odds with Beijing’s current position that Chinese economic development should not be infringed upon by outside demands for environmental responsibility – is based on a public statement made by a senior researcher at China’s National Development and Reform Commission, a powerful ministry with wide-ranging powers over the Chinese economy.

In that statement, the official – a Mr. Jiang Kejun – said he was sure his country would have a total emissions target by the beginning of China’s thirteenth five-year-plan – scheduled to begin in 2016. He noted it was “very possible” that China might also drop its opposition to carbon caps for developing nations at the upcoming UN conference on climate, to take place in Paris in 2015.

Reaching an obtainable goal that the rest of the world could follow by then was seen as vital by Mr. Jiang, who, according to the Financial Times, said: “The whole world needs to come up with a good protocol, and this should be the last protocol, otherwise we will not have time.”

Miles ahead on the climate front?

Why China, which has long been resistant to legal limits on carbon emissions, should now be changing its tune is no mystery. While China has experienced breathtaking economic growth over the past three decades owing largely to its profligate use of energy, particularly coal and oil, recent trends at work both in China and globally hint at why now may be a good time for a course correction.

First, the recent passing of the 400 parts per million concentration level of carbon in Earth’s atmosphere, a level not seen on this planet in at least 800,000 years, is a grim reminder that global warming continues to be a runaway train that few, if any, are willing to stop. Since China is one of the countries expected to be most impacted by climate change, and taking into account its already horrendous problem with air pollution, placing a cap on emissions could simply be the only viable option available to Chinese officials allowing them to keep their country from choking to death on its own industrial wastes.

Second, while the economic costs of transitioning away from fossil fuels are not insubstantial, China in recent years has become well placed to be a significant competitor in the renewable energy sector. Indeed, in solar power in particular, China has become a world leader and is currently the world’s low-cost producer of solar panels. So efficient are Chinese factories that both the United States and the European Union – both of whom pioneered solar energy research and development – have considered or have already put in place protective tariffs on cheap Chinese imports. A global cap thus potentially creates an economic windfall for Chinese clean-energy firms, which in 2012 raked in $65 billion in investment – a quarter of such investment worldwide and double the amount invested in the U.S.

Furthermore, this Chinese move to approve carbon caps globally has credibility as it plays into China’s plans to get at least 20% of its total power from renewable sources by 2030. To meet that ambitious goal, Beijing has already publicly pledged to significantly reduce the carbon intensity of its economy and announced recently the implementation of a carbon trading plan for several cities and provinces in China itself. Also potentially in the works is a Chinese tax on carbon, by far the most efficient way to limit emissions and one long resisted by industrialists everywhere.

Thus, in many respects, the world’s largest emitter of carbon gasses is beginning the slow transition to renewable energy, with or without the rest of the world – the United States included. It is also doing so in a way that positions the country to be a top tier producer of clean energy technology in the decades ahead, possibly allowing Beijing to dominate the industry as it does today in so many other sectors. The strategic benefits of such domination, of course, are obvious.

Which begs the question: Will the United States – the world’s second-largest emitter of carbon after China – follow suit? At present it is simply too early to say, but given the current paralysis in Washington, it does not seem likely. 2015, when the Paris climate talks are to take place, runs up against 2016 – America’s next presidential election year. Even if an offer to cap carbon via a global treaty is real, it is doubtful American domestic politics would give President Obama or his successor the maneuvering room necessary to negotiate, sign and ratify such a treaty.

Ulterior motives

This, in turn, could be exactly why Beijing is hinting at such a plan now. Knowing the United States will be unable to commit to imposing a carbon cap domestically or agree to a global treaty governing such caps in the midst of its election season, the offer could be designed to make the U.S. out to be the scapegoat for the Paris talks’ inevitable failure – thus allowing China to bow out of any such treaty commitments without losing face.

Similarly, if China were to go ahead with caps and commit to a treaty without U.S. participation, Beijing could possibly wrest the mantle of global environmental leadership away from the United States and the West all while positioning itself to dominate clean-energy industries of the future. Moving first is therefore a potential win-win for China and an opportunity not just to pull a fast one on the United States, but to do so on an issue that the West has traditionally led on.

China can do this, moreover, because its system – authoritarian though it may be – gives Beijing the ability to simply ignore special interests opposed to such a move. Contrast this with the United States where, even if clear majority of voters desired to cap carbon, the rules of the Senate mean any such plan would instantly be torpedoed via a filibuster by the fossil-fuel lobby.

A Chinese carbon cap is thus not merely good news for the environment – it is a sign of things to come as Beijing becomes ever more assertive on the world stage. Indeed, it is an initial probe of the strength of U.S. claims to global leadership that directly tests whether America’s useless federal government – beset by Tea Party oafs, climate-science denying ignoramuses, and the corrupting power of fossil-fuel money – is up to the challenge.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Mint Press News editorial policy.