While there is almost zero skill when it comes to the amount of RBI a player produces, through the creation of an expected RBI metric I have found a way to look at whether or not a player has gotten lucky or unfortunate when it comes to their actual RBI total.

I hope I don’t need to do this for most of our readers, because it’s 2014 and you’re reading about baseball on a far off corner of Internet, so you obviously are more informed than the average fan who consumes ESPN as their main source of baseball information, but lets talk about why RBI, as a stat, and why it is not valuable when you look at a players’ talent. The amount of RBI a player produces are almost—we’ll get into the almost a little later—entirely dependent on the lineup a player plays in. If a player doesn’t have teammates that can get on base in front of them in the lineup, there aren’t very many opportunities for RBIs; that’s the long and short. Really, RBI tell more about the lineup a player plays in than the player himself.

Intuitively, this makes sense. The more runners there are on base, the more chances the batter will have for RBI, and the more RBI the batter will accumulate. When I said, “The amount of RBI a player produces are almost…entirely dependent on the lineup a player plays in”, lets be a little more precise. My research took the last three years of data (2010 to 2013) and looked at all players that had 180 runners on base (ROB) during their at bats over the course of a season. Over the three seasons, which should be enough data—it was a pain in the ass to obtain the data that I did find—ROB correlated with RBI by a correlation coefficient of .794 (r2 = .63169), which is a very strong positive relationship.

But hey, that doesn’t mean that you can be a lousy hitter get a lot of RBI. That would be like if you threw hobo in the Playboy Mansion and expected him to get a lot of tail; all the opportunity in the world can’t mask the smell of Pall Malls, grain alcohol and a lifetime of deflected introspection; trust me, I worked at a liquor store for three years in college, and I know. In the same sample of players from 2010 to 2013 as used above, the correlation between wOBA—what we’ll use here to define a player’s ability at the plate—and RBI is .6555. So there is a relationship between a player’s ability and their RBI total, but nowhere near as strong as the relationship between their RBI total and their opportunity—ROB.

However, when we combine a player’s opportunity—ROB—with their talent—wOBA—we should get a good idea of what to expect for a hitter’s RBI total. Here is the formula for the expected RBI totals based on the correlations between ROB and wOBA, and RBI: xRBI =- 85.0997 + 262.7424 * wOBA + 0.1918 * ROB.

When you combine wOBA and ROB into this formula you end up with a correlation coefficient of .878 and an r2 of .771. Wooooo (Rick Flair voice)!!!!! With the addition of wOBA to ROB we increase our r2, from .63 with just ROB, by fourteen percent.

2013 Expected RBI Leaders

Player RBI wOBA ROB xRBI DIFF Miguel Cabrera 137 0.455 448 120.37 16.625508 Prince Fielder 106 0.358 536 111.77 -5.7668792 Paul Goldschmidt 125 0.404 450 107.36 17.6417704 Mike Trout 97 0.423 410 104.68 -7.6783352 David Ortiz 103 0.4 441 104.58 -1.58106 Joey Votto 73 0.4 441 104.58 -31.58106 Chris Davis 138 0.421 396 101.47 36.5323496 Hunter Pence 99 0.356 485 101.46 -2.4595944 Jay Bruce 109 0.344 500 101.18 7.8163144 Adrian Beltre 92 0.379 451 100.98 -8.9814696 Mike Napoli 92 0.367 456 98.79 -6.7875608 Dustin Pedroia 84 0.347 478 97.75 -13.7523128 Victor Martinez 83 0.34 478 95.91 -12.913116 Josh Donaldson 93 0.384 413 95.01 -2.0067816 Andrew Mccutchen 84 0.393 400 94.88 -10.8780632 Adam Jones 108 0.35 453 93.75 14.25446 Freddie Freeman 109 0.387 396 92.53 16.4655912 Evan Longoria 88 0.36 431 92.15 -4.153364 Robinson Cano 107 0.384 398 92.13 14.8702184 Carlos Santana 74 0.364 414 89.94 -15.9437336 Brandon Phillips 103 0.307 492 89.93 13.0721832 Edwin Encarnacion 104 0.388 379 89.54 14.4634488 Matt Holliday 94 0.383 385 89.37 4.6263608 Ian Desmond 80 0.341 428 86.59 -6.5858584 Michael Cuddyer 84 0.396 352 86.46 -2.4598904 Jayson Werth 82 0.403 340 86.00 -3.9974872 Adrian Gonzalez 100 0.346 418 85.98 14.0184296 Buster Posey 72 0.357 399 85.23 -13.2275368 Torii Hunter 84 0.346 414 85.21 -1.2143704 Martin Prado 82 0.328 435 84.51 -2.5128072 Pedro Alvarez 100 0.33 431 84.27 15.728908 Daniel Nava 66 0.366 380 83.95 -17.9480184 Josh Hamilton 79 0.319 443 83.68 -4.6825256 Troy Tulowitzki 82 0.4 331 83.48 -1.48306 James Loney 75 0.339 414 83.38 -8.3751736 Jason Kipnis 84 0.357 387 82.93 1.0740632 Eric Hosmer 79 0.35 392 82.05 -3.04574 Billy Butler 82 0.345 396 81.50 0.500772 Mark Trumbo 100 0.322 427 81.40 18.5980472 Ben Zobrist 71 0.334 410 81.29 -10.2942616 Carlos Gomez 73 0.363 369 81.05 -8.0499912 Brandon Belt 67 0.365 366 81.00 -14.000076 Kendrys Morales 80 0.342 394 80.33 -0.3274008 Anthony Rizzo 80 0.325 415 79.89 0.11142 Jon Jay 67 0.319 423 79.85 -12.8465256 Allen Craig 97 0.363 362 79.71 17.2926088 Jed Lowrie 75 0.345 385 79.39 -4.389428 Pablo Sandoval 79 0.331 403 79.16 -0.1634344 Carlos Beltran 84 0.359 355 77.31 6.6861784 Yadier Molina 80 0.362 347 76.57 3.4323512 Andre Ethier 52 0.34 375 76.16 -24.157716 Shin-soo Choo 54 0.393 297 75.12 -21.1226632 Ryan Zimmerman 79 0.353 350 74.78 4.2216328 Elvis Andrus 67 0.296 428 74.76 -7.7624504 Jonathan Lucroy 82 0.345 359 74.40 7.597372 Nick Swisher 63 0.336 370 74.15 -11.1477464 Alex Gordon 81 0.326 383 74.01 6.9862776 Manny Machado 71 0.325 384 73.94 -2.94278 Justin Upton 70 0.357 340 73.91 -3.9113368 Matt Carpenter 78 0.381 307 73.89 4.1122456 Justin Morneau 77 0.321 389 73.85 3.1491896 Brandon Moss 87 0.369 322 73.61 13.3881544 Michael Brantley 73 0.32 388 73.40 -0.396268 Adam Laroche 62 0.321 379 71.93 -9.9328104 Chris Carter 82 0.337 357 71.92 10.0829112 J.j. Hardy 76 0.322 377 71.81 4.1880472 Chris Johnson 68 0.354 333 71.78 -3.7805096 Kyle Seager 69 0.337 356 71.73 -2.7252888 Domonic Brown 83 0.351 336 71.57 11.4323176 David Wright 58 0.391 281 71.53 -13.5283784 David Freese 60 0.322 374 71.24 -11.2365528 Carlos Gonzalez 70 0.408 256 71.20 -1.1999992 Adam Lind 67 0.368 310 71.05 -4.0475032 Ian Kinsler 72 0.334 356 70.94 1.0629384 Adam Dunn 86 0.331 360 70.92 15.0839656 Stephen Drew 67 0.337 351 70.77 -3.7662888 Nick Markakis 59 0.304 396 70.73 -11.7267896 Todd Frazier 73 0.319 371 69.87 3.1270744 Yunel Escobar 56 0.311 381 69.69 -13.6889864 Ryan Doumit 55 0.311 380 69.50 -14.4971864 Omar Infante 51 0.346 329 68.91 -17.9113704 Jose Bautista 73 0.372 291 68.45 4.5457272 Bryce Harper 58 0.371 290 68.00 -9.9997304 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 65 0.349 320 67.97 -2.9733976 Gerardo Parra 48 0.318 361 67.69 -19.6921832 Hanley Ramirez 57 0.442 191 67.67 -10.6662408 Daniel Murphy 78 0.32 358 67.64 10.357732 Yoenis Cespedes 80 0.318 357 66.92 13.0750168 Andrelton Simmons 59 0.303 377 66.82 -7.8198472 Giancarlo Stanton 62 0.368 284 66.06 -4.0607032 Chase Headley 50 0.33 336 66.05 -16.050092 Jacoby Ellsbury 53 0.343 318 66.01 -13.0133432 Joe Mauer 47 0.383 263 65.97 -18.9740392 Wilin Rosario 79 0.348 310 65.79 13.2073448 Marlon Byrd 88 0.364 285 65.20 22.7984664 Jedd Gyorko 63 0.325 338 65.12 -2.11998 Jean Segura 49 0.329 332 65.02 -16.0201496 Russell Martin 55 0.315 351 64.99 -9.985956 Howie Kendrick 54 0.336 322 64.94 -10.9413464 Asdrubal Cabrera 64 0.307 357 64.03 -0.0348168 Chase Utley 69 0.356 289 63.87 5.1332056 Jhonny Peralta 55 0.356 286 63.29 -8.2913944 Trevor Plouffe 52 0.309 350 63.22 -11.2177016 Alexei Ramirez 48 0.304 356 63.05 -15.0547896 Matt Wieters 79 0.302 356 62.53 16.4706952 Austin Jackson 49 0.332 314 62.36 -13.3559768 Shane Victorino 61 0.353 285 62.31 -1.3113672 Justin Smoak 50 0.331 315 62.29 -12.2850344 Yasiel Puig 42 0.398 223 62.24 -20.2431752 Salvador Perez 79 0.329 315 61.76 17.2404504 Zack Cozart 63 0.289 367 61.22 1.7765464 Neil Walker 53 0.333 306 61.08 -8.0843192 Nelson Cruz 76 0.359 270 61.01 14.9891784 Nate Schierholtz 68 0.331 307 60.75 7.2493656 Will Venable 53 0.342 290 60.38 -7.3802008 Matt Dominguez 77 0.301 345 60.16 16.8432376 Colby Rasmus 66 0.365 256 59.90 6.097924 Raul Ibanez 65 0.344 284 59.75 5.2451144 Desmond Jennings 54 0.33 302 59.53 -5.528892 Brandon Crawford 43 0.296 348 59.42 -16.4184504 Jose Altuve 52 0.297 346 59.30 -7.2975928 Coco Crisp 66 0.339 286 58.82 7.1752264 Aramis Ramirez 49 0.366 249 58.82 -9.8222184 Brian Dozier 66 0.319 313 58.75 7.2514744 Jason Castro 56 0.361 255 58.66 -2.6593064 Josh Willingham 48 0.322 306 58.19 -10.1941528 Wil Myers 53 0.357 254 57.42 -4.4165368 A.j. Pierzynski 70 0.313 314 57.36 12.6361288 Albert Pujols 64 0.329 291 57.16 6.8436504 Starlin Castro 44 0.28 358 57.13 -13.132572 Evan Gattis 65 0.329 289 56.77 8.2272504 A.j. Ellis 52 0.304 323 56.73 -4.7253896 Dan Uggla 55 0.303 323 56.46 -1.4626472 Erick Aybar 54 0.299 326 55.99 -1.9870776 Juan Uribe 50 0.334 277 55.78 -5.7848616 Brian Mccann 57 0.347 259 55.75 1.2518872 Mike Moustakas 42 0.287 341 55.71 -13.7111688 Andy Dirks 37 0.306 313 55.33 -18.3328744 Leonys Martin 49 0.308 307 54.71 -5.7075592 Ryan Raburn 55 0.389 195 54.51 0.4919064 Alejandro De Aza 62 0.32 289 54.41 7.591932 Matt Joyce 47 0.33 274 54.16 -7.158492 Marco Scutaro 31 0.325 280 54.00 -22.99558 Paul Konerko 54 0.298 316 53.81 0.1936648 Lyle Overbay 59 0.303 309 53.78 5.2225528 Brett Gardner 52 0.335 264 53.55 -1.554204 Matt Adams 51 0.365 222 53.38 -2.380876 Chris Denorfia 47 0.323 279 53.28 -6.2782952 Aaron Hill 41 0.358 231 53.27 -12.2678792 Todd Helton 61 0.322 279 53.02 7.9844472 Mitch Moreland 60 0.32 280 52.68 7.318132 Jimmy Rollins 39 0.295 312 52.25 -13.250908 Jonny Gomes 52 0.338 253 52.23 -0.2326312 Denard Span 47 0.313 282 51.23 -4.2262712 Alcides Escobar 52 0.247 372 51.15 0.8527272 Dayan Viciedo 56 0.318 274 51.01 4.9944168 Carlos Quentin 44 0.372 200 51.00 -7.0004728 Nolan Arenado 52 0.308 287 50.87 1.1284408 J.b. Shuck 39 0.308 286 50.68 -11.6797592 Alex Rios 81 0.33 253 50.13 30.869308 Yan Gomes 38 0.359 210 49.50 -11.5028216 Ichiro Suzuki 35 0.281 316 49.34 -14.3397144 Alfonso Soriano 101 0.34 235 49.31 51.694284 Alex Avila 47 0.31 274 48.90 -1.903644 Justin Ruggiano 50 0.307 278 48.88 1.1173832 Gregor Blanco 41 0.307 278 48.88 -7.8826168 Dexter Fowler 42 0.347 223 48.84 -6.8433128 Garrett Jones 51 0.309 275 48.83 2.1672984 Nate Mclouth 36 0.323 254 48.48 -12.4832952 Mark Reynolds 67 0.31 271 48.33 18.671756 Gaby Sanchez 36 0.338 232 48.20 -12.2048312 Mark Ellis 48 0.3 284 48.19 -0.19422 David Murphy 45 0.289 298 47.99 -2.9892536 Lucas Duda 33 0.34 228 47.96 -14.963116 Michael Young 46 0.32 255 47.89 -1.886868 Brett Lawrie 46 0.314 263 47.84 -1.8448136 Lorenzo Cain 46 0.291 294 47.75 -1.7475384 Miguel Montero 42 0.295 287 47.46 -5.455908 Vernon Wells 50 0.279 307 47.09 2.9119704 Josh Reddick 56 0.303 274 47.06 8.9355528 Seth Smith 40 0.318 253 46.98 -6.9777832 Michael Saunders 46 0.315 253 46.19 -0.189556 Chris Iannetta 39 0.33 230 45.72 -6.719292 A.j. Pollock 38 0.321 242 45.66 -7.6562104 Norichika Aoki 37 0.326 235 45.63 -8.6273224 Welington Castillo 32 0.331 228 45.60 -13.5984344 Yonder Alonso 45 0.311 254 45.33 -0.3303864 Starling Marte 35 0.344 208 45.18 -10.1780856 Darwin Barney 41 0.252 334 45.17 -4.1725848 Oswaldo Arcia 43 0.322 238 45.15 -2.1517528 Adeiny Hechavarria 42 0.251 333 44.72 -2.7180424 Jason Heyward 38 0.344 203 44.22 -6.2190856 Drew Stubbs 45 0.296 266 43.69 1.3091496 Cody Ross 38 0.326 224 43.52 -5.5175224 Carl Crawford 31 0.322 228 43.23 -12.2337528 Darin Ruf 30 0.354 184 43.20 -13.2023096 Eric Chavez 44 0.344 197 43.07 0.9317144 Mike Aviles 46 0.284 279 43.03 2.9686584 Michael Bourn 50 0.3 257 43.02 6.98438 Kelly Johnson 52 0.314 236 42.67 9.3337864 Pedro Florimon 44 0.273 292 42.63 1.3654248 Conor Gillaspie 40 0.303 248 42.08 -2.0776472 Eric Sogard 35 0.303 248 42.08 -7.0776472 Ryan Howard 43 0.334 204 41.78 1.2165384 Skip Schumaker 30 0.301 249 41.74 -11.7439624 John Mayberry 39 0.298 252 41.53 -2.5311352 Didi Gregorius 28 0.311 234 41.49 -13.4943864 Wilson Ramos 59 0.337 198 41.42 17.5791112 John Buck 62 0.287 265 41.13 20.8656312 J.p. Arencibia 55 0.259 303 41.07 13.9340184 Will Middlebrooks 49 0.3 246 40.91 8.09418 Anthony Rendon 35 0.318 219 40.46 -5.4565832 Dustin Ackley 31 0.296 249 40.43 -9.4302504 Dj Lemahieu 28 0.295 249 40.17 -12.167508 Gordon Beckham 24 0.306 232 39.80 -15.7970744 Derek Norris 30 0.335 192 39.74 -9.744604 Nick Hundley 44 0.295 246 39.59 4.407892 Everth Cabrera 31 0.329 198 39.32 -8.3189496 Jordy Mercer 27 0.333 191 39.03 -12.0273192 Chris Young 40 0.289 251 38.97 1.0253464 Nick Franklin 45 0.304 230 38.89 6.1120104 David Lough 33 0.316 213 38.78 -5.7802984 Jeff Keppinger 40 0.266 281 38.69 1.3144216 Rajai Davis 24 0.305 218 36.85 -12.849132 Matt Kemp 33 0.316 202 36.67 -3.6704984 Ike Davis 33 0.297 228 36.67 -3.6651928 Logan Morrison 36 0.312 205 36.19 -0.1949288 Luke Scott 40 0.326 185 36.04 3.9626776 Juan Lagares 34 0.275 253 35.68 -1.67986 Alberto Callaspo 58 0.312 200 35.24 22.7640712 Carlos Ruiz 37 0.303 212 35.17 1.8271528 Pete Kozma 35 0.241 295 34.80 0.1977816 Jose Lobaton 32 0.316 192 34.75 -2.7524984 Luis Valbuena 37 0.315 191 34.30 2.702044 Travis Hafner 37 0.302 207 33.95 3.0488952 Rickie Weeks 24 0.299 211 33.93 -9.9300776 Devin Mesoraco 42 0.282 231 33.30 8.7005432 Yuniesky Betancourt 46 0.257 262 32.68 13.3233032 Lance Berkman 34 0.313 185 32.62 1.3783288 B.j. Upton 26 0.252 267 32.32 -6.3219848 Chris Parmelee 24 0.298 203 32.13 -8.1329352 Jesus Guzman 35 0.299 201 32.01 2.9879224 Brett Wallace 36 0.314 180 31.93 4.0745864 Brandon Barnes 41 0.283 219 31.26 9.7394008 Marcell Ozuna 32 0.304 188 30.83 1.1676104 Daniel Descalso 43 0.284 212 30.18 12.8192584 Kyle Blanks 35 0.302 187 30.12 4.8848952 Eduardo Nunez 28 0.298 191 29.83 -1.8313352 Ed Lucas 28 0.289 202 29.58 -1.5764536 Maicer Izturis 32 0.269 229 29.50 2.4997944 J.d. Martinez 36 0.284 208 29.41 6.5864584 Placido Polanco 23 0.279 213 29.06 -6.0588296 Carlos Pena 25 0.298 185 28.68 -3.6805352 Donovan Solano 34 0.277 213 28.53 5.4666552 Lonnie Chisenhall 36 0.293 184 27.18 8.8249768 Jurickson Profar 26 0.291 186 27.03 -1.0331384 Alexi Amarista 32 0.274 205 26.21 5.7892824 Omar Quintanilla 21 0.262 219 25.74 -4.7430088 Michael Morse 27 0.286 185 25.53 1.4723736 Chris Stewart 25 0.261 218 25.29 -0.2884664 Jayson Nix 24 0.279 191 24.84 -0.8392296 Cliff Pennington 18 0.273 193 23.65 -5.6463752 Aaron Hicks 27 0.266 197 22.57 4.4256216 Logan Schafer 33 0.269 191 22.21 10.7881944 Jose Molina 18 0.266 185 20.27 -2.2727784 Greg Dobbs 22 0.265 182 19.43 2.565364 Tyler Flowers 24 0.265 180 19.05 4.948964

Lets think about why Chris Davis’ xRBI is so much lower than his 2013 actual RBI total.

Davis had 396 runners on base while he batted in 2013, which is 140 ROB less than Prince Fielder who led the league with 536 ROB; Davis’ opportunity was limited.

Davis’ RBI total was considerably higher than what his opportunity would suggest his RBI total should be, and one of the reasons that he outperformed his xRBI total by so much was because of the amount of home runs he hit. Davis, or any batter, doesn’t need a runner on base to get an RBI when he hits a home run. But beyond home runs there is another reason why Davis and other batters outperform their xRBI totals: luck.

Hitting with runners on base is not a skill. A batter has the same probability, regardless of the base/out state, of a hit. Lets forget pitcher handedness and Davis’ platoon splits at the moment. With a runner on second base and two outs Chris Davis will get a hit .272 (27%) of the time—I averaged his Steamer and Oliver projections for 2014 together. Davis, and Alfonso Soriano for that matter, who was the only player to outperform his xRBI by more than Davis in 2013, was lucky and happened to have runners on base the majority of the 28.6%—Davis’ 2013 batting average—of the time he got a hit in 2013.

To put Davis’ 2013 136 RBI season into perspective, in the last five seasons there have been eight players to record 130 or more RBI in a season. Of those eight players, only two—Ryan Howard (2008-9) and Miguel Cabrera (2012-13)—were able to duplicate the performance the following year.

While the combination of ROB and wOBA has allowed us come up with a reliable xRBI, the next step, to increase the reliability of xRBI and account for players who produce a large amount of their RBI from home runs (i.e. Davis), is to include a power component in xRBI: HR/FB ratio.

Devin Jordan is obsessed with statistical analysis, non-fiction literature, and electronic music. If you enjoyed reading him, follow him on Twitter @devinjjordan.