UPMC said Tuesday the predicted surge of COVID-19 patients hasn’t arrived and cases are on the decline in central and western Pennsylvania.

In light of that, UPMC plans to resume some of the elective surgeries that were canceled as the result of government directives to conserve beds and supplies for COVID-19 patients.

“The very high surge we prepared for simply hasn’t happened,” said Dr. Donald Yealy, UPMC’s chair of emergency medicine.

However, state Secretary of Health Dr. Rachel Levine said Tuesday that while the state has begun talking to hospitals about resuming some surgeries, “we’re not there yet.”

Of 5,500 beds in the UPMC hospital system, only 2% are occupied by COVID-19 patients, as are 8% percent of intensive care beds, according to Yealy, who also said UPMC has strong supplies of protective equipment such as masks, shields and gowns.

The 118 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 at UPMC hospitals are “not a significant increase from last week,” he said.

Yealy further said the rate of positive coronavirus tests done through UPMC hospitals has dropped to 6.6 percent, down from 12 percent earlier in the pandemic, another sign the coronavirus threat is declining in areas served by UPMC.

Moreover, UPMC has been hearing from patients who delayed surgeries related to things such as heart conditions or cancer, and is “not comfortable with the disruption in care this has caused for people who don’t have COVID-19,” he said.

He said the surgeries that will be resumed might be called non-urgent because they are done on a scheduled rather than emergency basis, but are “essential” to people waiting for them.

Yealy said the expansion of surgeries is within federal guidelines and UPMC has notified Gov. Tom Wolf and Levine.

But it’s not clear whether UPMC’s plans will conflict with the priorities of Wolf and Levine, who continue to cite potential for an overwhelming surge and shortages, and to urge people not to relax social distancing and other steps to prevent spread of the disease.

Asked about resuming elective surgeries during her daily briefing on Tuesday, Levine said the administration has begun discussing it with hospitals and their state association. “We’re not there yet but we’re having active discussions,” she said.

Early in the crisis, hospitals all over the country were directed to cancel elective surgeries to conserve beds and supplies for COVID-19 patients.

Elective surgeries are a major source of profit for hospitals. Hospitals say the loss of revenue, combined with the cost of preparing for the coronavirus, is taking a devastating financial toll that could cause some to close.

Both Pennsylvania and the federal government have directed some money toward addressing the loss.

Asked about financial motives on Tuesday, Yealy said he couldn’t speak for the business side of UPMC, but the impetus toward resuming some elective surgeries “came from doctors and patients and not in response to a business concern.”

UPMC said it will continue to closely monitor the prevalence of coronavirus and will adjust as needed.

Discussing the impact of COVID-19, Yealy noted UPMC has discharged 130 COVID-19 patients. “That’s very good news. People are recovering, even those who were very sick,” he said.

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