If Kliff Kingsbury was gifted with the ability to travel back in time, the first thing he’d probably do is go back to Oct. 28, 2018 and stop himself from telling the media this…

“I’d take [Kyler Murray] with the first pick in the draft if I could. I know he’s signed up to play baseball, but he’s a dominant football player.”

Well, as the world would have it, Kingsbury has become the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals and could actually take Murray, who announced via Twitter that he is fully committed to an NFL career, with the first pick in the 2019 NFL draft. One problem: Kingsbury’s team just used a first-round pick on a quarterback less than a year ago. That did not prevent the media from throwing around Josh Rosen trade scenarios: He could very well be the future of the Giants or Bill Belichick’s next Tom Brady, depending on your source.

Kingsbury was asked about the Cardinals drafting Murray, and he shot it down as a possibility and proclaimed that Rosen was the team’s future.

Y’all are having fun with speculation, but… pic.twitter.com/dy4NbJ82iB — Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) February 12, 2019

That Kingsbury actually had to respond to these rumors, which have been entirely fueled by that soundbite from October, is kind of silly but totally understandable. Putting Murray, the kind of quarterback who isn’t supposed to succeed in the NFL, in Kingsbury’s offense, which isn’t supposed to work in the NFL, would be all sorts of fun. That doesn’t mean it’s the smartest move for the Cardinals. And there are several reasons why it isn’t…

Giving up on Josh Rosen after a bad rookie season makes little sense.

There’s no way around it: Rosen’s rookie stat line is horrid. He completed 55.2% of his passes, threw more interceptions than touchdowns and finished last in passer rating. That’s bad. But we need some context, and the context makes those numbers a bit more palatable.

No quarterback would have looked good in Arizona last season. Certainly no rookie quarterback. Rosen got no protection from his line, had no running game to lean on, his receivers couldn’t get open and his offensive coordinator was fired midseason. That Rosen made it through the 2018 season without getting injured is a minor miracle. His failure to impress during his rookie season was an inevitability.

No quarterback was pressured more often (37.2%), threw into a tight window more often (21.6%), or had a lower expected completion percentage (59.4%)—based on the difficulty of the throw—than Josh Rosen did in 2018. This will certainly change under Kliff Kingsbury. — Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) January 8, 2019

The football community seems to be getting smarter. In 2019, most football fans and analysts realize that quarterbacks are very much a product of their surroundings, but that seems to be lost when it comes to judging rookie quarterbacks. You’d think Jared Goff going from bust to Pro Bowler with one coaching change would have opened eyes, but here we are, two years later, writing off another young quarterback in an impossible situation.

Kyler Murray would not have fared any better in Arizona last season

It would be foolish to expect Murray to do any better behind the Cardinals offensive line. Sure, there’d be more highlight-reel escapes and scrambles, but mobile quarterbacks tend to get sacked more frequently than traditional pocket passers — especially those who hold the ball longer, which Murray did at Oklahoma.

The Cardinals’ pass protection issues had little to do with the quarterback. Rosen was pressured on over 40% of his dropbacks despite getting the ball out in 2.77 seconds on average, which is quicker than league average time to throw, per Pro Football Focus. Rosen was sacked after an average of just 2.88 seconds, second lowest in the league behind Drew Brees.

Rosen may not be an athletic runner but his pocket mobility is impressive. It didn’t matter with the Cardinals offensive line allowing waves of pressure. Even when Rosen evaded one rusher, another (or two) was right behind him.

And when Rosen did get outside of the pocket, his inexperienced receivers (those not named Larry Fitzgerald) weren’t particularly good at finding open space.

With a line that couldn’t block, receivers that couldn’t get open and an out-of-date scheme that couldn’t help them do so, Rosen had to scratch and claw just to complete a pass at times.

Murray’s running ability may give the Cardinals offense a boost in the short-term, but this would be a decision for the future, and Rosen’s ability to navigate the pocket, diagnose defenses and throw with accuracy outweigh Murray’s play-making ability over the long haul.

Trading the first-overall pick makes more sense for the Cardinals than actually using it.

Due to general manager Steve Keim’s poor draft performance in recent years, the Cardinals’ roster is tremendously flawed. This team could use all the draft picks they can get their hands on and the best way to accumulate those picks is to trade out of the No. 1 spot.

Trading Rosen, who is already a year into his rookie contract, may net Arizona a first-round pick at best. Trading out of the top spot would bring back several premium picks over the next few years. So trading Rosen in order to take Murray would not only leave the Cardinals with a more volatile QB prospect — it’s very easy to envision a 5-foot-8 scrambler flaming out of the league — but they’d also be giving up the chance to acquire more sorely needed draft capital.

Arizona’s top concern should be putting talent around their young quarterback, not finding his replacement. If they trade Rosen for Murray instead of using their top pick to fix the rest of the offense, the Cardinals will find themselves in the same position this time next year: wondering if their struggling rookie quarterback is the answer.