A lot of people are disappointed that Edgar Martinez hasn’t been elected to the Hall of Fame yet — and, by extension, that he wasn’t elected during this most recent round of voting. But there’s good news on this front: Martinez’s chances of making the Hall of Fame have never been better.

Martinez debuted on the ballot eight years ago, garnering 36.2% of the vote. Five years after first becoming eligible for the ballot, though, his case had gained little headway. In fact, by 2014 and -15, he’d actually backslid a little, appearing on just 25.2% and 27.0% of ballots, respectively, in those two seasons. At that point, it appeared as though he had little chance of making the Hall of Fame.

In 2016, Martinez benefit from a healthy bump (to 43%) and then another big bump (to 59%) the next year. And while that improved his overall chances of earning admission, the probability that it would occur this year remained low. Consider: over the last 50 elections, only Ralph Kiner has been elected in one year after receiving less than below 60% of the vote the year before. Martinez will almost surely make it next season after a strong 70% showing this year.

Martinez’s own history on the ballot, as well as the sort endured by players like Bert Blyleven and Tim Raines makes it difficult to project any given player’s vote totals more than two or three years out. It’s difficult to forecast voting habits even one year away. Consider what I said at this time last year in an attempt to project future Hall of Fame votes.

It’s going to be tough next season. Getting four guys in will be a positive step, but it could cost players like Edgar Martinez needed momentum, and the 5% rule could force out guys like Andruw Jones and Scott Rolen, who deserve a longer look.

I correctly picked the four players who would gain entry to the Hall, but I was wrong on Martinez — he did get necessary momentum — and on Jones and Rolen, who both survived the initial cut. As I’ve already discussed in another piece, next year presents a fascinating, somewhat unpredictable situation. Four players who averaged 90% of the vote just left the ballot, freeing up a lot of room for other names to earn votes. Only Mariano Rivera and Roy Halladay have really good cases of the first-time players. That’s going to leave a lot of free votes for players who need some momentum.

Below, I’ve looked at the Hall of Fame-eligible class for each of the next five years. For each player, I’ve included a number a number of relevant metrics, including Hall of Fame rating. If you’re unfamiliar with Hall of Fame rating, you can find the introduction here. It works similarly to Jay Jaffe’s JAWS except that it uses FanGraphs WAR instead of Baseball-Reference and measures peak in a different way, so as to encompass all of a player’s good seasons. HOF AVG and MEDIAN denote the average and median HOF Ratings of players at a candidate’s respective position. BBWAA AVG and MEDIAN denote the same thing, except consider only those players voted in by writers (and not those inducted by, say, the Veterans’ Committee).

2019

2019 Hall of Fame Ballot Newcomers Player HOF Points WAR HOF RATING HOF AVG HOF MEDIAN BBWAA AVG BBWAA MEDIAN Mariano Rivera 12 39.7 25.9 21.2 17.7 21.2 17.7 Roy

Halladay 54 65.2 59.6 54.5 48.9 66.9 63.3 Todd

Helton 45 54.8 49.9 59.0 57.1 65.6 57.3 Andy

Pettitte 33 68.9 51.0 54.5 48.9 66.9 63.3 Lance

Berkman 45 56.1 50.6 55.7 49.7 62.7 52.5 Roy

Oswalt 52.5 37 44.8 54.5 48.9 66.9 63.3 Miguel

Tejada 20 39.7 29.9 54.8 51.5 62.0 57.8 Those above the median Hall of Famer at their position are highlighted in blue.

First Ballot No Doubters

Mariano Rivera

First Ballot Likely Hall of Famers

Probably None

Should Be In at Some Point

Roy Halladay

Deserve More Consideration

Todd Helton, Andy Pettitte, Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt

Holdovers In

Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina

Last Chance

Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff

Notes

When I did this exercise last season, I did not have Mike Mussina getting elected in the 2019 cycle. His strong increase this year to 63.5% puts him within shouting distance of the Hall, however. Typically, about one in four players at Mussina’s percentages makes it to the Hall the following season. Mussina has a lot of things going for him, particularly the positive momentum from this season and a slightly less crowded ballot. As the second-leading returnee and only Rivera emerging as a first-ballot lock, Mussina should be able to make up considerable ground with small-Hall voters and pick up a few votes from those who vote for 10 every year but left Mussina off this past cycle.

2020

2020 Hall of Fame Ballot Newcomers Player HOF Points WAR HOF RATING HOF AVG HOF MEDIAN BBWAA AVG BBWAA MEDIAN Derek

Jeter 51 71.7 61.4 54.8 51.5 62.0 57.8 Bobby

Abreu 35 59.2 47.1 62.4 49.5 82.1 67.1 Jason

Giambi 36 49.7 42.9 59.0 57.1 65.6 57.3 Cliff

Lee 34 47.4 40.7 54.5 48.9 66.9 63.3 Those above the median Hall of Famer at their position are highlighted in blue.

First Ballot No Doubters

Derek Jeter

First Ballot Likely Hall of Famers

None

Should Be In at Some Point

None

Deserve More Consideration

Bobby Abreu

Holdovers In

Roy Halladay

Last Chance

Larry Walker

Notes

If Mussina is elected on the 2019 ballot and Halladay can make a strong debut next season, I could see the latter earning a place in the Hall on the second try. If Halladay is at 40% or so next season, then it will take a while, but two Cy Young awards, two times the runner up, and three other top-five finishes is tough to ignore. There’s also, of course, his unfortunate death this past year to consider.

Bobby Abreu had a nice long career but probably doesn’t captivate the imagination the way Vladimir Guerrero did. He deserves a few looks, but could fall off the ballot after one try. Jason Giambi had a nice career, but it wasn’t amazing and he has a PED stain. Cliff Lee was really good, but his career wasn’t that long.

Larry Walker is going to need a massive jump in each of the next two voting cycles to make it in. It can’t be ruled out, given the solid jump he made this year even with a crowded ballot, but it’ll be tough to gain the necessary votes for election. It would have been nice for him if Edgar Martinez had been elected this year to open up some space on ballots. He’s going to need a major campaign starting now.

2021

2021 Hall of Fame Ballot Newcomers Player HOF Points WAR HOF RATING HOF AVG HOF MEDIAN BBWAA AVG BBWAA MEDIAN Tim

Hudson 22 51.1 36.6 54.5 48.9 66.9 63.3 Mark

Buehrle 23 52 37.5 54.5 48.9 66.9 63.3 Torii

Hunter 19 41.5 30.3 64.6 49.2 92.1 77.1 Those above the median Hall of Famer at their position are highlighted in blue.

First Ballot No Doubters

None

First Ballot Likely Hall of Famers

None

Should Be In at Some Point

None

Deserve More Consideration

None

Holdovers In

Bonds? Clemens? Schilling?

Last Chance

None

Notes

Is this the year nobody is elected? Or will a few of the players who aren’t in the Hall of Fame for non-on-field reasons get the call? At this stage, the ballot will have Bonds, Clemens, Schilling all in their ninth try along with other players from the same era with PED questions — players including Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, and Sammy Sosa. Jeff Kent and Billy Wagner will still be hanging around, as well.

Omar Vizquel is probably going to have a tough time cracking 75%, but he will still have a decent amount of support. Andruw Jones and Scott Rolen and might be making some slow inroads. Berkman, Helton, and Pettitte might still be on the ballot. I think it might take Bonds and Clemens one more year. If they gain four points in each of the next two, they will still be 10% short heading into 2021. Gain another five points in 2021, and they might have a shot in their final ballot the following year.

2022

2022 Hall of Fame Ballot Newcomers Player HOF Points WAR HOF RATING HOF AVG HOF MEDIAN BBWAA AVG BBWAA MEDIAN Alex

Rodriguez 106 113 109.5 54.8 51.5 62.0 57.8 David

Ortiz 25 50.5 37.8 59.0 57.1 65.6 57.3 Mark

Teixeira 25 45 35.0 59.0 57.1 65.6 57.3 Jimmy

Rollins 25 49.3 37.2 54.8 51.5 62.0 57.8 Carl

Crawford 24 42.1 33.1 55.7 49.7 62.7 52.5 Jake

Peavy 22 44.6 33.3 54.5 48.9 66.9 63.3 Those above the median Hall of Famer at their position are highlighted in blue.

First Ballot No Doubters

None

First Ballot Likely Hall of Famers

David Ortiz

Should Be In at Some Point

Alex Rodriguez

Deserve More Consideration

None

Holdovers In

Bonds? Clemens? Schilling?

Last Chance

Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Sosa

Notes

This is potentially the last stand for Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling — as well as Sosa, who isn’t likely to be close. As they leave, Alex Rodriguez arrives. Rodriguez, of course, was another of the greatest players of all time and another one for whom PEDs are an issue. Along with him comes David Ortiz, who has some whispers of his own and doesn’t measure statistically as a Hall of Famer, but who seems destined for entry all the same.

None of the other first-ballot players — a class that also could include David Wright — will merit serious consideration, which means that this year will mark the end of the ballot congestion that has been raging for a decade.

2023

2023 Hall of Fame Ballot Newcomers Player HOF Points WAR HOF RATING HOF AVG HOF MEDIAN BBWAA AVG BBWAA MEDIAN Carlos

Beltran 47 67.2 57.1 64.6 49.2 92.1 77.1 Those above the median Hall of Famer at their position are highlighted in blue.

First Ballot No Doubters

None

First Ballot Likely Hall of Famers

None

Should Be In at Some Point

Carlos Beltran

Deserve More Consideration

None

Holdovers In

Probably none

Last Chance

Jeff Kent

Notes

We could still see a few more players added to this list, including Ichiro Suzuki, who would be a first ballot Hall of Famer. Others meriting some consideration could be Matt Holliday, John Lackey, Joe Nathan, and Bartolo Colon. Carlos Beltran might benefit from the relative lack of players on the ballot and gain entry on his first try, but the ballot has been pretty brutal to center fielders throughout history.

Alex Rodriguez will probably still be on the ballot. Andruw Jones, Manny Ramirez, Scott Rolen, Gary Sheffield, Omar Vizquel, and Billy Wagner will likely still be around, too. It would be unprecedented for Jones and Rolen to even approach 75% in 2023 given their results from 2018 voting. That said, the ballot on which they started is pretty unprecedented to begin with. They should be seeing a lot of momentum by this point, and it isn’t out of the realm of possibilities that they would be within range.