Ledyard King

USA TODAY

Donald Trump is dominating the GOP presidential field in Florida, a new Quinnipiac University poll shows.

The billionaire businessman received 44% in the poll released Thursday, well ahead of home-state Sen. Marco Rubio, who got 28%. Following were Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas (12%) Ohio Gov. John Kasich (7%) and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (4%).

“The size and shape of Trump’s lead is impressive," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "He leads in every age group by 9 to 19 percentage points. He does better among men than among women and, despite being a New York multi-billionaire, he leads among those who identify with the tea party."

Some analysts say Florida's March 15 primary is the Republican establishment's last chance to stop Trump's already impressive run to the nomination. Whoever wins in Florida will get all of the state's 99 Republican delegates, a huge prize on the way to the 1,237 needed to win the nomination.

The Quinnipiac University poll indicates a surge for Rubio, who last month hovered in third place at about 14% behind Cruz and Trump. He's been helped by strong showings in early primary states and the exit of several rivals, notably former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

But Trump, fresh off wins in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, would win Florida easily, the poll suggests. He does twice as well among white evangelicals as Cruz, who counts those voters as a core constituency. And two-thirds of Florida Republicans who say they want a strong leader are backing Trump.

Rubio strategist Todd Harris doesn't put a lot of faith in the poll.

Al Cardenas, a Miami lawyer who served a senior adviser to the Bush campaign, isn't surprised about the poll's findings.

"In politics, there's nothing like momentum," he said. "You win three states by the margins he's been wining them, the numbers are all going to start tilting in your favor."

The poll of 705 likely Republican primary voters was conducted Sunday through Wednesday, It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

There is a ray of hope for Rubio.

About 5% of likely Republican primary voters in Florida are undecided, and 30% of likely GOP voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind before the primary.

"If Sen. Rubio can’t win in his own home state, it is difficult to see how he can win elsewhere,” Brown said.