11:51

Aidan O’Brien, rather than John Gosden, holds the key to my Champions Day at Ascot. This has not always been the Irishman’s strongest fixture of the year but he had a couple of winners last year. He gets to approach today’s action almost as the underdog, because of the expectation being heaped on Gosden’s team, with the result that the Ballydoyle runners are backable prices and, in a few cases, clearly are being backed.



Sir Erec (1.25) is down to 13-2 for the opening Long Distance Cup, having been a general 10-1 after declarations were made for this weak-looking contest. Meanwhile, Aidan’s supposed first-string, Flag Of Honour, is an uneasy 11-4. Sir Erec is clearly a late bloomer, having earned his place here with a Listed win last weekend, and perhaps he won’t be able to show his best just seven days later. But the ground will be no problem and you can’t say that with the same confidence about the two ahead of him in the betting.

Happily (3.15) is the other notable Aidan shortener in the QEII, being a general 10-1 shot from the 14-1 and even 16s on offer early yesterday. As it happens, she has a lot in common with Persuasive, the Gosden-trained winner of this race last year; two females causing a bit of an upset at the end of a winless year, having shown high-class form on soft the previous year. Like Persuasive, Happily warmed up for this by running second in the Sun Chariot.

Aidan O’Brien walking the track at Ascot on a previous Champions Day. Photograph: Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images

I’ve made Kitesurf (2.40) my pick in the Fillies & Mares race but I had a lingering look at Broadway and will have a few quid on each-way. She’s one of six that Aidan has in the race and was initially priced up at 100-1 because her claims were so much less obvious than those of her stablemates. But she ought to relish this step up in trip, as a Galileo half-sister to Danedream, appears progressive, won on heavy last time and has James Doyle up. The Racing Post’s Spotlight has been braver than me and actually tipped her outright, which is one reason she has now shortened to a general 40-1.

The card tapers off after the QEII, for me. I think Cracksman will probably win a Champion Stakes that lacks depth but odds of 10-11 don’t leave much room for error. I will watch the handicap without an involvement, though Mitchum Swagger isn’t a bad price at 12-1. Tips for all today’s races are here. Good luck to you all and here’s hoping the ground throws up results that are just strange enough for our liking.