Tony Cook, and Tim Evans

IndyStar

Just a few months ago, Joe Hogsett told anyone who asked — even longtime political confidants — that he wanted to finish his term as U.S. attorney and had decided against a run for Indianapolis mayor.

Then came Monday's announcement that he was resigning his position as U.S. attorney, a stunning reversal that led to immediate speculation that he plans to run for mayor.

The apparent change in heart comes at a time when Indianapolis is reeling from crime. The city is on pace for a record number of homicides this year. And a spate of violence over the July 4th weekend included a shooting in Broad Ripple that injured seven people and a gun fight on the Eastside that left an Indianapolis police officer dead.

Hogsett isn't talking about the reasons for his resignation. Federal law prohibits him from campaigning for another post before his resignation becomes effective July 31.

But hours after announcing his resignation, other high-profile Democrats were touting Hogsett's crime-fighting credentials.

Evan Bayh, the former governor and U.S. senator, said during a press conference that the city's next mayor will need programs to boost the economy, create jobs, and improve education.

"But if we're going to achieve any of those things, we've got to come to grips with the violent crime problem," he said. "Joe Hogsett brings a record of experience tot hat that would be unmatched by almost anyone I can think of."

A Hogsett candidacy would virtually guarantee that public safety will take center stage in next year's mayoral race. Even if current concerns about the issue fade before the election, Hogsett wil try to put it there, said Edward Frantz, associate professor of history and director of the Institute of Civic Leadership/mayoral archives at the University of Indianapolis.

"He absolutely will make it an issue," Frantz said. "He will ask voters if they feel safe in their own home? Things like that, without having to rely on personal attacks."

At a press conference this morning on an economic development project, reporters asked Ballard about Hogsett's resignation and speculation he may launch a bid for mayor.

"I don't know. What's he going to do? I don't know. I have no reaction to that," Ballard said.

When asked if he was concerned by the possibility of a race against Hogsett, Ballard laughed.

"Do I look worried?"

Ballard recently has stepped up police hiring. A class of 60 officers - the first class since 2011 - is in the training academy now and another class of 20 to 30 is scheduled to be selected next year.

Additionally, Ballard wants to spend about $7 million a year to fund more recruits by eliminating a portion of the homestead tax exemption.

Last year, IMPD reassigned more than 100 officers from desk to street duty to off-set the shortage.

But the number of IMPD officers has been dwindling for years because of budget constraints and, before the current recruit class, stood at 1,506. It is the ninth class of recruits since the Indianapolis police merged with the Marion County Sheriff's Office in 2007.

Ballard said Monday that merely increasing the number of police won't solve the city's crime problems. He said the city needs to do a better job of engaging young men who are "dropping out of the system." The justice system also needs to do a better job of discriminating between violent and nonviolent offenders, he said.

Kyle Walker, chairman of the Marion County Republicans, said Hogsett will have a "significant amount of explaining to do" about his record on crime and public safety if he decides to run for mayor.

He said that Hogsett, as district attorney, hasn't been as aggressive a partner as he could have been in addressing public safety in Indianapolis.

"His record is very lean as it relates to the number of criminal prosecutions in general in Indianapolis and, specifically, as it relates to using a firearm in criminal activity in Indianapolis," Walker said. "I think he's done a good job of running toward any kind of news camera as he could as district attorney, but his record will certainly be in question if he decides to run."

As Indianapolis residents mourn the loss of a second police officer in 10 months, Democrats see an opening for someone with Hogsett's credentials.

"Absolutely I think Greg Ballard is vulnerable on public safety," said Joel Miller, Marion County Democratic Party chairman. "I think right now the citizens of Indianapolis don't feel as safe as they did four or eight years ago. Certainly Joe Hogsett has a record of public safety so it would be an easy transition to him."

Political observers agree that Hogsett's background could be an asset — but only to the extent that voters connect crime trends to the mayor's office.

"Obviously, what he has done as the U.S. Attorney should give him some credibility on the crime issue," said Andy Downs, director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics.

But "if people perceive that the crime is beyond the control of an individual, people can be less critical of a sitting mayor," he said. "If people believe the mayor has made substantial efforts, they may not hold it against him."

Hogsett could have some other strengths coming into the race.

Marion County is increasingly tilting toward the Democratic Party and Hogsett could get some help from Bayh, a longtime friend who is sitting on a campaign war chest of more than $9 million.

Bayh said Monday he would do whatever he legally could to help Hogsett get elected if he chooses to run.

Long seen as a star within his own political party, Hogsett has been stymied by statewide Republican strength in several other bids for public office. He ran unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate in 1992, U.S House of Representatives in 1994 and Indiana attorney general in 2004.

Before that, Hogsett, a Democrat, served as Indiana secretary of state from 1988 to 1994. He ran former U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh's successful campaigns for secretary of state in 1986 and governor in 1988.

Hogsett, 57, is married with three children. He holds bachelor's, master's and law degrees from Indiana University. He also has master's degrees from Butler University and the Christian Theological Seminary.

If Hogsett enters the race, other Democratic candidates — some of whom Hogsett had told he would not run — will have to decide whether or not to drop out.

State Rep. Ed DeLaney, D-Indianapolis, said he is continuing with his plan to run for mayor and believes improving public safety is a major issue.

"I am running for mayor," he said. "I am very interested in the office and I am enjoying running for mayor."

Delaney, however, said he believes Hogsett also would be a good candidate if he were to jump into the race.

"All I know is (Hogsett) resigned on short notice," Delaney said Monday. "I've said all along Joe would be a good candidate for mayor. We'll just have to wait and see what he does."

Washington Township Trustee Frank Short, the first announced Democratic candidate, would not say if he plans to stay in the race.

Short, who has known Hogsett for 25 years, said he jumped into the race in February after Hogsett told him in January he had no interest in the mayor's job.

Hogsett called Short Monday morning to tell him he was resigning as U.S. attorney.

"A couple of weeks ago, he said he might be exploring other options so, no, it was not a surprise " said Short, stressing that Hogsett never told him he would run for mayor.

Star reporters Bill McCleery, John Tuohy, Stephanie Wang and Barb Berggoetz and Star researcher Cathy Knapp contributed to this story.Call Star reporter Tony Cook at (317) 444-6081. Follow him on Twitter: @indystartony.