As the 2020 election cycle begins, some centrist Republicans are already said to be considering challenging the president as the GOP works to stifle any rebellion

As more and more Democrats line up for a chance to take on Donald Trump in 2020 the president has predictably responded by doling out insults and nicknames. But while Democrats remain the object of Trump’s ire for now, he may soon have to worry about Republican primary challengers as well.

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Since Trump’s 2016 run, centrist Republicans have watched aghast as the president transformed the party and its supporters to fit his own style and beliefs. Many of his former opponents within the Republican party fell in line, but others have not.

As the 2020 election cycle begins, some Republicans may now seek to challenge Trump in the presidential primaries.

One potential insurgent Republican candidate is former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld, who was the vice-presidential nominee on Gary Johnson’s Libertarian party ticket in 2016.

Last week, the Associated Press reported that Weld had changed his party registration from Libertarian back to Republican. In late January, he told the New Hampshire television station WMUR that he would not say anything regarding whether he was running or not until he gave a speech in the state – home to the first primary in the nation – on 15 February.

If he enters the race – and does so in his old party – he will be the first rebel Republican to challenge Trump.

“It certainly seems that if he runs, it will be as a Republican. And that presents a danger to Trump because incumbent presidents who get primaried usually end up weakened and losing the general election,” said Rob Gray, who was Weld’s press secretary when he was governor of Massachusetts.

He added: “The establishment Republican theory is that four years out in the cold with a Democratic president is better for the Republican party long-term than eight years of Trump pushing out and turning off liberal, middle-of-the-road Republicans from the party.”

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The latest speculation over Weld’s candidacy comes as others are also said to be considering taking on Trump. Trump critic and two-time presidential candidate John Kasich, who recently finished his final term as governor of Ohio, has been considering a run. Maryland governor Larry Hogan is also a potential contender.

But facing off against Trump is a daunting challenge. He attacks those who criticise him relentlessly – and for Republicans hoping to advance in the party’s ranks, facing the wrath of the president, his allies and his large base of voters is could be politically dangerous. Even the president’s biggest enemies on the 2016 primary campaign trail, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz (who Trump tauntingly called “Little Marco” and “Lyin’ Ted”) were quick to fall in line.

With the party firmly under Trump’s control, the GOP is now working to stifle any potential rebellion.

Last month, Republican National Committee members unanimously voted to approve a resolution declaring “undivided support” of Trump and his presidency at the body’s annual winter meeting in New Mexico. Meanwhile, in South Carolina, Republicans have voiced support for cancelling the state’s primary to block potential challengers and protect the president.

“The Republican party has really fallen in line behind Donald Trump, in part because they’re afraid of his base and in part because they’re afraid of being targeted by Donald Trump,” said Erin O’Brien, an associate professor of political science at University of Massachusetts Boston.

While that could dissuade some Republican candidates, O’Brien said it will not scare off Weld, who operates independent of the party apparatus.

“He’s not afraid to run and lose. Bill Weld is not afraid to run to make a point,” she said.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Bill Weld in Canton, Massachusetts on 8 November 2016. ‘He’s not afraid to run and lose,’ Erin O’Brien said of Weld. Photograph: Michael Dwyer/AP

For Weld or any other candidate who runs as a Republican, playing the spoiler might be the best they can do. The president’s approval ratings remain high among Republicans and few observers see him losing the nomination.

But historically, wounding is what insurgent candidates have done best. George HW Bush defeated fellow Republican Pat Buchanan’s primary effort in 1992 only to lose to Bill Clinton in the general. In 1980, Jimmy Carter lost 12 primary contests to Massachusetts senator Ted Kennedy before losing by a landslide to Ronald Reagan. And in 1976, Reagan challenged Gerald Ford, who lost to Carter.

Any attempt to primary the president would be “an attempt to wound”, said Steve Duprey, a New Hampshire Republican National Committee member who was a senior adviser to the late John McCain’s 2008 campaign. “Now with the basically co-joining of the Republican National Committee with the Trump campaign so it’s one, I think it makes it a very daunting task to take him on.”

Still, some do see some room for potential insurgent candidates to mount more competitive campaigns aimed at denying Trump the nomination.

Tom Rath, a former New Hampshire attorney general who served as a senior national advisor to Kasich in the 2016 election, said there is “no appetite” in the Republican party for a challenger. However, if Trump seems unlikely to win re-election in 2020, Republicans afraid of losing the White House after having already lost the House of Representatives could be more open to an insurgent candidate.

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“The only cogent argument that will cut is electability,” he said. “And if there was a weakening of the president’s numbers, I think that would potentially give more credence to a challenger.”

The former chair of the Massachusetts Republican party, Jennifer Nassour, said “2016 shook history up a little bit. I don’t know if I would apply historical norms to any election after 2016.

“A lot of centrists are looking for someone to call home – and that’s people both on the right and the left who feel the parties have left them,” she added.

But to University of New Hampshire political science professor Dante Scala, while potential candidates like Weld and Kasich appear attractive to moderate Republicans and independent voters, he believes there is only so far they can go.

“Unless the bottom drops out from underneath the president, all they’re going to do is hit that ceiling,” he said.