Sunday’s performance against Buffalo in the Wildcard round was the perfect encapsulation of the 2017 Jaguars. Mightily frustrating at times but we got the job done. Bad Blake reared his head again, the run game struggled , overall an ugly performance but a win is a win is a win.

Next up is the Steelers at Heinz field. We’ve firmly entered “happy to be here” territory now, right?

On the surface it seems like a mighty task, as I write this we are 7 point underdogs and most media outlets are writing us off. In fact the Steelers themselves seem to already be looking ahead to a potential AFC Title game against the Pats. Perfect.

Few reasons for optimism :

1) We beat them 30-9 at home already this year and our all world defense had Big Ben shook. (This was the “signature loss” for the Steelers this year which kicked them into gear)

2) Our offense can’t play much worse than it did on Sunday (touch wood).

3) Historically we always seem to do well against the Steelers. We lead the series 13-11 and some of our best days have come against them. (2007 David G baby). 4-1 at Heinz Field.

4) The starters have had two weeks off and Mike Tomlin’s teams have an awful habit of taking games off against supposedly inferior opposition.

Not the most convincing of reasons but some are better than none.

Tactics

While the Steeler’s offense vs the Jaguars defense is the marquee matchup the media have been fawning over all week, how our offense fairs vs their defense will likely decide who wins and thus I will start with that.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are synonymous with the 3-4 defense having run it in one form or another since the early 1980’s. The ageless wonder Dick Le Beau popularized it for many years with his aggressive zone blitz scheme but left in 2015 and became the Titans DC. Since then the Steelers defense has been trying to find its identity with new DC (and longtime linebacker coach under Le Beau) Keith Butler.

There are still lots of 3-4 elements to his defense but it has transformed in 2017 to a truly hybrid unit capable of sending multiple different looks on any given play. Tomlin has also incorporated some wrinkles from his cover 2 background. They’ll go 3-3-5, 2-4-5, even some 2-2-7 if needs be. While it’s nowhere near perfect they led the NFL with 56 sacks which is a franchise record for the Steelers. Pretty impressive considering they have historically been a defense orientated team.

Defensive Stats:

7th in points against (19 ppg)

14th in yards against per play (5.2)

13th in turnovers (22)

1st in sacks (56, Jaguars are 2nd with 55)

5th in passing yards against (201 ypg)

16th in yards per pass allowed (6.4)

10th in rush yards against (106 ypg)

27th in yards per carry allowed ( 4.4 ypc)

So a good pass defense that gets after the QB but can be gashed in the run game.

After a hot division title clinching stretch in December the Jaguars offense has finally ground to a halt both literally and metaphorically. Bad Blake has reared his head again and the run game is struggling to get any push against the constant barrage of 8 man boxes teams throw at us. There’s no doubt the Steelers are going to load up the box against us too so how do we counter that?

The answer is creativity. A few ideas

First and foremost should be to try reduce the amount of 8 men boxes.

The Jaguars have faced a higher % of 8 man boxes than any team in the league this year. Part of this is the reality of having Bortles as QB but the other part is our personnel use. The run game is mostly a numbers battle and more FB+TE sets =s more men in the box. Basically the more WRs you have on the field the less an opponent is able to use an 8 man box. Look at the above image.

The problem with this is Fournette does his best work running behind a full back.

YPC stats can lie but they provide a decent baseline to work off of. Interestingly enough this graph shows that Fournette is almost as good at running out of 3 WR sets as he is running behind a fullback and 2 TE’s.

So in theory the first part of the “Prevent 8 men boxes” should be to run more 3 WR sets agreed? Agreed.

The second part is where the creativity comes in and I have a couple idea’s to help get this run game kick-started.

Run Blake more

Bortles has the 4th best career YPC of players who have 200+ carries in NFL history. Just behind Mike Vick, Bobby Douglas and Randall Cunningham. Not bad company for 6’5 230 lb QB who ran a 4.9 at the combine. He’s a very smart runner but usually only takes off once the play breaks down.

Against the Bills he put the team on his back and picked up chunk yards through the ground.

Deshone Kizer was able to hurt the Steelers defense in week 17 with some similar runs.

These broken play type runs give DCs heart attacks but I’d go a step further and actively try run Blake with some zone read and option plays.

Arizona’s defense had an aggressive downhill gameplan against us this year. Perfectly executed read option here by Blake and picks up the first down.

We should use this play a couple times against the Steelers. It’s risky but it can help to stem their linebackers flowing downhill aggressively and can open up the run game for Fournette and co.

2. Utilize the entire backfield.

Fournette, Ivory , Yeldon and Grant. All bring something a little bit different to the table and all should be used on Sunday to maximize our run game.

Fournette is banged up and fatigued after a long season (Rookie wall is real) and clearly isn’t the same player he was the first few weeks. Help is needed.

Chris Ivory is a bruising runner on his day but has lost a lot of the dynamism that made him. He’s still sneaky good on screens and we should be use a good amount of them to keep the defense on their toes. (Has been known to fumble though)

Yeldon provides a different style of running to Ivory and Fournette, has decent hands and is a good pass protector. The Steelers love to blitz through the A-Gap with LB Vince Williams on 3rd down so pass protection will be paramount. Give him 8-10 touches and see what happens. I don’t think he’s that good but I don’t think he outright stinks either. Worth a punt. (Also been known to fumble)

Corey Grant has barely been used this year apart from two awesome fake punts. Throw him in a few trick plays and screens. Get him in space or matched up with a linebacker. Anything. The Steelers have notoriously poor tackling and Grant has the ability to house it on any given play. (Just don’t have him block)

Using all 3 of these backs will help keep Fournette fresher, help create alternative matchups to attack and hopefully allow our run game to prosper.

What happens in the passing game is anyone’s guess. Blake has always been bad vs the blitz and this defense is very good at blitzing. If I’m the Steeler’s DC I blitz early and often to try get Blake shook. He’ll need lots of check-down options and dump off’s to counter it but even then it might not save him.

The Steeler’s defense doesn’t have much star power but its well coached and has versatile weapons who can disrupt the offense in a number of ways.

Cam Heyward: Their criminally underrated 3-4 end has had a DPOY year type season. He’s a monster pass rusher (12 sacks , 62 pressures) and run defender, not too unlike our own Calais Campbell. He’ll need to be double teamed and ran away from if at all possible.

Vince Williams: Solid inside linebacker and 2nd on the team with 8 sacks. Loves to blitz from the A gaps and can be a handful for running back blockers to deal with. Not the most agile in the pass game.

T.J Watt: Younger brother of J.J. Monster athlete who blew up the combine. 3rd on the team with 7 sacks. He’s asked to drop back in coverage just as much as he’s asked to blitz. Expect them to send him after Blake.

Mike Hilton: Slot corner for the Steelers and former Jaguars practice squad member, Undersized but feisty player , great tackler and adept blitzer off the edge. Blake will need to look out for him breaking on the ball.

All in all its pretty simple. If we can get the run game moving we have a chance to hurt them. If not expect another showing of Bad Blake for 4 quarters.

On offense we actually match up pretty well with the Steeler’s vaunted offense. They have an elite offensive line, we have an elite defensive line. They have the best WR in football (and JuJu) , we have the best secondary in football. The X- Factor will be how the Steelers use superstar running back Leveon Bell on the ground.

While he’s extremely talented in his own right , their awesome offensive line deserves some credit in his success too. Coached by one of the best position coaches in the league, Mike Munchak, the Steelers offensive line is a devastating combo of brawn and brains. They work cohesively as one unit and run a sophisticated hybrid gap/zone blocking scheme. Full of reach blocks and movement to create angles and alleys for Bell to exploit. Its the perfect marriage considering Bell’s supernatural ability to read blocks.

Few examples:

Straight up murdered a stout Titans defense at the point of attack.

While our run defense has improved over the second half season (partly due to the addition of Dareus) we still have issues with our run fits and getting off blocks. Too often do we see an interior player get doubled and nobody shoots in to fill the gap. Any slip up on Sunday will be exploited ruthlessly by this line and Bell.

We held Bell to 47 yards on 15 attempts in week 5 and did pretty well but I wouldn’t be expecting a repeat performance on Sunday. I’d say Todd Haley will run Bell around 25-30 times on Sunday and try to gradually wear us down. Jack and Telvin need to be aggressive attacking any pulling guards and the likes of Yannick and Malik will need to step up their inconsistent run defense too. I’d go as far as saying sell out to stop the run and take your chances with Big Ben vs our pass defense.

Unfortunately for us Bell is also a very talented receiver and can be deadly leaking out on delayed screens. Once again Jack and Telvin need to be on point with their assignments. Last thing we want is Poz chasing Bell 40 yards downfield.

To summarize , establish the run by creating favorable matchups in the box, stop the run by playing aggressive but disciplined football. Who knows maybe Blake pulls a great performance out of the bag and renders this entire post useless.

GO JAGS!

– Jack