Julian Alaphilippe Fr

Current overall standing 1st: 61hr 00min 22sec

After a dreamlike Tour de France, the charismatic and swashbuckling D’Artagnan of the peloton will be toppled, probably, on the first of three brutal Alpine stages. Thursday’s 208km stage from Embrun to Valloire is where Geraint Thomas will finally lift the yellow jersey from the Frenchman’s now sagging shoulders. Already at the end of his strength in the Prat d’Albis stage finish in the Pyrenees on Sunday, the towering climbs of the Vars, Izoard and Galibier and the lack of any true team support will finally put an end to Alaphilippe’s fading dreams of victory.

Prediction Top 10.

Geraint Thomas GB

Current overall standing 2nd: +1min 35sec

Geraint Thomas insists he is ready for the challenge of the Alps Read more

Although the defending champion’s form is still volatile, both his physical and verbal approach to this Tour has changed and – with the yellow jersey now within reach and Alaphilippe waning – his chance to move into pole position with two mountain stages will come on the Col du Galibier. But can the Welshman hang on to it? The smart money says not and his lack of hard racing in the buildup to the Tour will show the next day when the natural‑born climbers Thibaut Pinot and Egan Bernal will do battle once more and finally leave him behind at the summit finish to Tignes.

Prediction Third.

Steven Kruijswijk Neth

Current overall standing 3rd: +1min 47sec

The Dutchman is resilient and enduring but he is a diesel in the mountains, not a sports car. As an accomplished Grand Tour rider, he has come close to a podium finish in all three Grand Tours of Europe, with fourth place in the 2016 Giro d’Italia, fifth in the 2018 Tour de France and fourth in the same year’s Vuelta a España, behind the winner, Simon Yates. His team have had a sparkling Tour and through George Bennett and Laurens de Plus have given him sterling support, but once again the Dutchman will cede ground in the climactic summit finishes to slip out of the top three.

Prediction Fourth.

Play Video 2:09 Tour de France: Thomas 'itching to go' as Alaphilippe 'changes plan' to preserve lead – video

Thibaut Pinot Fr

Current overall standing 4th: +1min 50sec

Pinot represents payback time for the French. After more than two decades of suffering at the hands of the Danes, the Germans, the Americans and, worst of all, the British, they now have an opportunity to win the Tour through flair and panache, with Pinot, a rider of character and vulnerability who wears his heart on his sleeve. But although he embodies all that the French love about cycling, Pinot is likely to falter in the final days of this Tour. If Bernal is given his head and goes toe to toe against him on the final climbs, expect the Colombian to win.

Prediction Second.

Alaphilippe allows France to dream in Tour where panache is overriding strategy | Richard Williams Read more

Egan Bernal Col

Current overall standing 5th: +2min 02sec

Before this Tour de France began, Bernal was everybody’s favourite. Winner of two of Europe’s biggest races this year, Paris-Nice and the Tour of Switzerland, and with Thomas struggling for form, he was the obvious choice. The “Alaphilippe situation”, as Dave Brailsford has called it, may have changed the pattern of this race but Bernal, save for an underwhelming time trial in Pau, has been, unlike others, a model of consistency in the mountains. Once his team fully commit to him, as they inevitably will once Thomas struggles, he will dominate the final Alpine stages to become the Tour’s first Colombian champion.

Prediction Winner.

Emanuel Buchmann Ger

Current overall standing 6th: +2min 14sec

Third overall in June at the Critérium du Dauphiné and in the Tour of the Basque Country in April, the 26-year-old has never flown this high in a Grand Tour. Although a climbing specialist, his best Grand Tour finish is 12th overall in the Vuelta a España last year. He has already surpassed all expectations and as the Alps begin he is likely to lose ground, especially as his Bora-Hansgrohe team will be split between ensuring that Peter Sagan, who is romping towards yet another green jersey, survives and also supporting Buchmann’s slim hopes of a top‑three finish.

Prediction Top 10.