A source familiar with the Biogenesis investigation tells HardballTalk that if Alex Rodriguez and Major League Baseball are unable to reach a settlement in connection with the Biogenesis matter, Major League Baseball will suspend Rodriguez for life. Previous reports have only suggested such a move is possible.

A lifetime ban would almost certainly cause Rodriguez to appeal the discipline. HardballTalk’s source says that Major League Baseball is aware that the arbitrator who would hear the matter – Fredric Horowitz – may not uphold a lifetime ban in light of the fact that Rodriguez has never been subject to discipline for PEDs before and because going all the way to baseball’s most severe sanction would be extreme for first-time discipline. The league believes, however, that even if he were successful in having his sanction reduced on appeal, Rodriguez would ultimately be given a severe suspension, on par with what it is currently offering Rodriguez: 150 games or greater. The league is confident that Rodriguez would not prevail on the basic matter of culpability if he appealed.

Major League Baseball was unable to comment, citing the pendency on the ongoing investigation. Rodriguez’s attorney, David Cornwell, did not return calls seeking comment.

The source says that Major League Baseball is unwilling to agree to a suspension of Rodriguez in the 100-game range, demanding much more time off, even in the context of a settlement. The league, according to the source, believes that it has “compelling evidence” of significant malfeasance on Rodriguez’s part, including use of performance enhancing drugs, steering other players who sought to take PEDs to the Biogenesis clinic and his attempts to obtain and possibly destroy evidence from the Biogenesis clinic. Rodriguez and his attorneys, the source says, strongly dispute allegations of steering players to Biogenesis and attempting to destroy evidence.

The source says that, those disputes aside, Rodriguez is “in for a world of hurt.”

The source says that discipline is most likely to be leveled against Rodriguez, be it in the form of a settled-on or unilaterally-imposed sanction on Friday. Major League Baseball is expected to announce discipline for all of the other players connected to Biogenesis on that day as well.

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