Florida surprise: Atwater won't run for Rubio seat

Just as he looked like a front-runner to replace Sen. Marco Rubio, Florida CFO Jeff Atwater announced Saturday he would not run for the seat.

“Over the past weeks I have received a tremendous amount of encouragement to consider a run for the United States Senate in 2016,” Atwater said in a written statement. “While I have certainly taken these words of support under consideration, I will not be a candidate in 2016. I remain committed to only one endeavor and that is to be the best CFO I can be for the people of Florida.”


Atwater first broke the news to donors, friends and advisers earlier Saturday, telling people he isn’t running because his family doesn’t want him moving back and forth from Washington and his home in South Florida, sources said.

The decision by Atwater makes the seat more attractive to a host of Republicans. The three likeliest to run for Rubio’s Senate seat: Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera and two congressmen, Ron DeSantis and Tom Rooney. Reps. Vern Buchanan and David Jolly, former state House Speaker Will Weatherford and former Sen. George LeMieux are also eyeing the seat. Before anyone announces, though, each is waiting on Rubio’s expected Monday announcement that he’s running for president.

DeSantis is “strongly considering” getting into the Senate race and intends to confirm his intentions to consider the race in a statement after Rubio’s expected announcement Monday, with a final decision coming shortly thereafter, a source close to DeSantis tells POLITICO. The source said DeSantis has more than $1 million cash-on-hand in his congressional account that he could roll over and use in a Senate race, the source said. A Yale undergrad and Harvard Law grad, he served in the Navy and was deployed to Iraq – earning comparisons to Arkansas’s new conservative senator, Tom Cotton. Also, DeSantis could enjoy the support of the influential conservative group Club for Growth, which backed him in his 2012 congressional race.

Rooney is also “seriously considering,” another source said. A six-year veteran of Congress, Rooney is the scion of a wealthy family that owns the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Palm Beach Kennel Club. He has the money and connections to mount a credible statewide campaign. A former Army JAG, Rooney has spent most of his time in Washington focused on military issues, earning seats on the Appropriations and Intelligence committees. After speaking out against the far right wing of his party, Rooney could run as a “responsible” Republican. He has young children, which will certainly affect his decision.

As for Lopez-Cantera, he’s a close Rubio friend, and has spoken with the senator about the potential bid. Lopez-Cantera has also received some encouragement from his 2014 running mate, Gov. Rick Scott. As a Miami-Dade County native, Lopez-Cantera hails from a region of the state that has more registered Republicans than any other. About 72 percent of them are Hispanic, nearly all Cuban-American like Lopez-Cantera, who speaks fluent Spanish.

The jockeying, speculation and smack-talk whirled around Twitter. First Scott’s former pollster, Tony Fabrizio, played up Weatherford: “Will you should definitely run for Senate!”

“Thanks Thanks Tony…no pressure ;),” Weatherford responded. “What’s all the political fuss about? Can a guy watch @TheMasters in peace? #pullingforSpieth #FlaPol.”

Then Eric Jotkoff, the Florida spokesman for President Obama’s reelection campaign chimed in: “@George_LeMieux is also thinking of running. Funniest joke I have heard all week. GOP would be better off with McCollum,” he said referencing the state’s former attorney general who lost two Senate races and the 2010 GOP primary vs. Scott.

LeMieux responded: “What a compliment! Already being attacked by the left.”

Some speculated that Atwater, who tried and failed in 2014 to become president at Florida Atlantic University, might be positioning himself for a similar opening at Palm Beach State College. But Atwater adviser Randy Nielsen said Atwater’s decision revolved around what was best for his family, not any interest in any other job. Nielsen also spoke highly of Rooney.

“Whenever I polled the Rooney name in the state, I’ve found Florida voters have an affinity for the Rooney family,” Nielsen said, adding that Rooney has an advantage in his family friendship with lobbyist Brian Ballard, a top fundraiser for Scott and 2012 presidential candidate Mitt Romney. “Ballard has a proven track record of raising the kind of money needed to win a statewide race in Florida,” Nielsen said.

The Rubio and Atwater decisions are setting off the very type of nightmare scenarios Republican Party leaders were hoping to avoid in Florida, a state the GOP essentially needs to win to carry that White House but that trends Democratic in presidential election years.

First off, a Rubio presidential bid means the GOP won’t have a dream ballot: Jeb Bush at the top for president followed by Rubio for reelection to his Senate seat. Now, if multiple members of Congress run, they’ll leave open their seats that state legislators and local elected officials will likely seek, leading to more campaigning and more turmoil in 2016.

Atwater’s decision not to run for Senate sets up a potential 2018 clash between him and state Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, who wants to run for governor just as Atwater has. If Rubio loses in 2016, he’s favored to run for governor and thereby face Putnam and Atwater. Or, if Atwater decides to run for Senate against incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson in 2018, he might have to face Scott, who has expressed interest in that seat as well. Attorney General Pam Bondi has not ruled out a 2018 Senate bid, either, but first told POLITICO this week that she’s staying put.

Recent polls from Quinnipiac University and Mason-Dixon indicated Atwater was the strongest potential candidate for Senate in 2016. In Quinnipiac’s poll he beat the Democrats’ only announced candidate, Rep. Patrick Murphy and had an even bigger lead over Rep. Alan Grayson, a Democrat who is also strongly considering a bid. In back-to-back statewide elections in 2010 and 2014, Atwater won more votes than any other Republican, including Scott and Rubio.

On Thursday, Atwater supporters formed a super PAC to aid his likely run. He planned to open a Leadership PAC this week to boost his chances of a bid, but then abruptly pulled the plug.

“This was a total surprise,” said an Atwater supporter. “All the stars were aligned. But family comes first.”

Jake Sherman contributed to this report.