2016 Atlantic Hockey Playoff Preview

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With the Atlantic Hockey playoffs starting this weekend, it is worth taking a look at how Elo thinks the teams are going to do. The odds range from top ranked Robert Morris having a 32% chance of winning the tournament, to AIC who has only a 0.03% chance.

The following table shows the odds of each team still being around after each round. Note that the top five teams have a first round bye, and therefore a 100% chance of advancing out of the first round.

First Round Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals Robert Morris 100 87.83 60.36 32.16 Air Force 100 76.16 45.35 22.45 Holy Cross 100 69.27 34.57 17.24 Mercyhurst 100 57.08 25.03 12.48 RIT 100 42.92 17.29 8.05 Army 82.36 25.86 7.20 3.10 Canisius 72.97 18.73 4.85 1.98 Bentley 46.34 8.23 2.03 0.79 Sacred Heart 53.66 10.79 2.86 1.18 Niagara 27.03 1.98 0.32 0.09 AIC 17.64 0.78 0.13 0.03

With Robert Morris currently ranked 20th by USCHO, 19th by PairWise, and 18th by Elo it is likely that winning the tournament is the only way for any of these teams to reach the NCAA playoffs. None of teams without a first round bye, have much of a chance of winning the Atlantic Hockey tournament so the first round of the tournament may not have too much of an impact.