Ernst holds a slender, 2-percentage-point edge over Braley, according to the poll. Poll: Ernst, Braley in dead heat

A new Quinnipiac University poll out Thursday shows Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley in a dead heat in the Iowa Senate race.

Ernst holds a slender, 2-percentage-point edge over Braley, according to the poll, 48 percent to 46 percent, with 4 percent of likely voters undecided. That is well within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points and unchanged from a 2-point lead for Ernst last week.


Each candidate takes more than 90 percent of their own partisans, and Ernst has a statistically insignificant 6-point lead among independents, the poll shows.

( See more from POLITICO's Polling Center)

There is a wide, reverse gender gap, with men supporting Ernst by a 17-point margin, and women backing Braley by 13 points.

Voters are slightly warmer toward the Republican, according to the poll: Braley’s favorability rating is 43 percent — the same percentage view him unfavorably — while Ernst’s is 48 percent, compared to 42 percent unfavorable.

Democrats are hoping to run up the score in early voting — and the poll, which was conducted Oct. 15-21, shows Braley ahead by 21 points, 58 percent to 37 percent, among those who have already voted.

But Republicans say they’ve closed the gap. The Republican National Committee is circulating a memo today claiming more registered Republicans have returned absentee ballots in Iowa as of Oct. 22 than registered Democrats.