Illustration by POLITICO / AP Photo The POLITICO Caucus Insiders to Clinton: Lay off Sanders

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will appear onstage together at the first Democratic debate next week, but don't expect fireworks: Leading Democrats say it would be a mistake for Clinton to attack Sanders.

That's the assessment of this week's POLITICO Caucus, our bipartisan survey of the top activists, operatives and strategists in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.


Majorities of Democrats in the first three states warned that Clinton should not play offense against Sanders, while Nevada Democrats were evenly divided. Sanders has gained on Clinton in the early state polls, and according to some surveys, leads her in New Hampshire. Those who said Clinton should hold back on attacking argued that she needed to be careful to not alienate his supporters.

"As much as it would be personally satisfying to see her eat his lunch, it's not necessary or helpful," a New Hampshire Democrat said, a view that was shared by 56 percent of Democrats in that state. "She needs to keep her eyes on the prize and make sure she does not alienate his voters for the general election."

"Directly attacking Bernie would only increase acrimony from elements of the base she will need later on -- this is why there are Super PACs," advised a Nevada Democrat, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely.

Ultimately, several insiders noted, Clinton is still considered the likely Democratic nominee, and any jabs at Sanders in Las Vegas next week will only elevate him.

"Clinton has nothing to gain by confronting Sanders in the debate," said a South Carolina Democrat, who like all participants answered through an online survey. "She must remain [above] the fray and continue to act as she is the front runner. It doesn't matter to her supporters that she takes on Sanders either. Sanders and his supporters could use such an act as validation of his candidacy and as if she is playing on his level."

Another South Carolina Democrat was more blunt in saying she shouldn't attack, a view shared by 67 percent of Democrats in that state: "You don't swing down in politics. If she attacks him, he can play the victim and throw more red meat to his looney toon base."

But some Democrats relished the idea of seeing Clinton clash with the Vermont senator, who has emerged as the progressive champion in the primary.

"I think she needs to show that she isn't taking the nomination for granted and that Bernie's ideas are not realistic," a Nevada Democrat said.

Suggested an Iowa Democrat, offering a view shared by 45 percent of Iowa Democratic insiders, "Confrontation gives the press a new story to cover and it will look good for her supporters who want to see her take an aggressive tone."

Added a New Hampshire Democrat, "His pie in the sky policy ideas, while wonderful, have received very little scrutiny by the press. It's about time they did. There's [no] point in a presidency where nothing can get done."

Others, who said she should confront Sanders directly in next week's debate, noted that she could do so in a way that draws contrasts, but doesn't forever turn off his supporters.

"If ‘confront’ means respectfully comparing/contrasting positions," then yes, said a Nevada Democrat. "If it means ‘take him head on’ -- then no, she should not."

One area where Clinton could effectively draw contrasts, several insiders suggested, is on gun control--a rare issue on which Sanders is to the right of Clinton.

"It is unlikely she will knock him off his game on most topics," a New Hampshire Democrat said. "However, a serious vulnerability for him is his record on gun safety. HRC has been becoming more impassioned and articulate about her own position in favor of common sense measures. If she exploits this topic, especially in light of Roseberg [Oregon's] mass murder, she could gain points and [cast] Sanders in a rather unflattering light."

Expectations were high for Rubio going into the third fundraising quarter.

Marco Rubio had more riding on the third-quarter fundraising report than his fellow Floridian and GOP rival Jeb Bush, according to Republican insiders, who weighed in before news of Rubio's haul -- $6 million--was shared with donors Thursday. (Full quarterly results, including information about spending, will be released for all candidates next week.)

The majority of Republicans in all of the early states except for South Carolina said Rubio, who has enjoyed a bump in the polls and a burst of positive coverage following his last debate appearance, needed a solid fundraising report to keep up the momentum.

"He needs to demonstrate genuine staying power," said a New Hampshire Republican of Rubio, echoing 61 percent of GOP respondents in the state. "No doubts Jeb will get the $$s, question is can Marco's bump translate into the dollars he will need in Nov/Dec to take advantage of his moment."

Of Iowa Republicans, 67 percent also said Rubio has more at stake and 53 percent of Nevada Republicans said the same.

"Jeb is what he is. He has established himself as a safe and smart choice if not an exciting one," a Nevada Republican said. "The revolving spotlight is now on Marco Rubio. If Rubio wants to have staying power he has to avoid mistakes and show he is ready for prime time. The fundraising quarter is one benchmark of staying power."

So far, Rubio has lagged far behind Bush in fundraising, but his campaign stresses that he is running a lean operation and doesn't want to peak too soon anyway--and he enjoys support from a super PAC and a 501c(4) nonprofit.

In South Carolina, the dynamic was reversed, with more than three quarters of Republican insiders saying the pressure is on Bush to maintain his image as a fundraising juggernaut.

"The expectations are higher for Jeb, so he can't afford to have a narrative develop that his ace in the hole -- his fundraising ability -- is suffering in any way," a South Carolina Republican said.

These are the members of the POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated this week:

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

South Carolina: Andrew Collins, Antjuan Seawright, Barry Wynn, Bob McAlister, Boyd Brown, Brady Quirk-Garvan, Bruce Haynes, Catherine Templeton, Chad Connelly, Chip Felkel, Cindy Costa, Clay Middleton, David Wilkins, Dick Harpootlian, Donna Hicks, Drea Byars, Ed McMullen, Elizabeth Colbert-Busch, Ellen Weaver, Erin McKee, Glenn McCall, Inez Tenenbaum, Isaiah Nelson, Jaime R. Harrison, James Smith, Jason Perkey, Jay W. Ragley, Jim Hodges, Jimmy Williams, Joe Erwin, Joel Sawyer, John Brisini, Kevin Bishop, Kim Wellman, Laurin Manning, Le Frye, Luke Byars, Matt Moore, Mikee Johnson, Morgan Allison, Phil Noble, Scott Farmer, Tony Denny, Trey Walker, Tyler Jones, Walter Whetsell, Warren Tompkins, Will Folks

Nevada: Adam Khan, Andres Ramirez, Andrew Diss, Barbara Buckley, Bob Cavazos, Brendan Summers, Chip Evans, Chuck Muth, Dan Hart, Daniel Stewart, Ed Williams, Emmy Ruiz, Erven T. Nelson, Greg Bailor, Heidi Wixom, Jack St. Martin, James Smack, Jay Gertsema, Jeremy Hughes, Jim DeGraffenreid, Jon Ralston, Kristen Orthman, Laura Martin, Linda Cavazos, Lindsey Jydstrup, Mac Abrams, Mari St. Martin, Marla Turner, Megan Jones, Michael McDonald, Michelle White, Mike Slanker, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Oscar Goodman, Pat Hickey, Paul Smith, Pete Ernaut, Peter Koltak, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Roberta Lange, Ryan Erwin, Ryan Hamilton, Sam Lieberman, Scott Scheid, Yvanna Cancela, Zach Hudson

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.