Werewolf Statistics

Remember, these values are not representative of actual games. They assume that all the humans are entirely stupid -- werewolves always kill humans, but humans lynch entirely at random, and the seer never pays attention to his visions. In actual games, the humans' chances will be higher. How much higher is unknown. I expect that humans' advantage (over chance) is stronger in longer games, since they have more time to gather information and the seer has more visions.

The first notable result is that games with an even number of players (including the moderator) really suck for the humans. For example, it takes a 16-player even game to gives the humans the same chance as a 11-player odd game, but a 13-player odd game is considerably better than both. (These are two-wolf games I'm talking about.) This is probably because an even game always ends with a nighttime murder, and an extra murder is always to the advantage of the wolves; whereas an extra daytime lynching could help either side.

The main reason I did simulation was to estimate when to add a third wolf. If we figure that 9 or 11 players is ideal for a two-wolf game, and we assume that these probabilities actually means anything (heh heh), then an ideal game has a human-win chance of 0.23 to 0.29. (Again, for completely stupid humans.) So a three-wolf game is best if there are 17 or 19 players. And a four-wolf game might be best with 27 players -- but that's stretching the simulation way too far, since a 27-player game would be incredibly long and the humans would gather a huge relative advantage.

And you might be able to play a one-wolf game with six players, but again, the even/odd difference makes that prediction rather shaky.

Try it and see.

(one wolf) 3 players: humans win 0 4 players: humans win 0 5 players: humans win 0.334 6 players: humans win 0.250 7 players: humans win 0.466 8 players: humans win 0.374 9 players: humans win 0.544 10 players: humans win 0.453 11 players: humans win 0.593 12 players: humans win 0.508 13 players: humans win 0.630 14 players: humans win 0.548 15 players: humans win 0.659 16 players: humans win 0.580 17 players: humans win 0.682 18 players: humans win 0.607 19 players: humans win 0.700 20 players: humans win 0.629 21 players: humans win 0.716 (two wolves) 5 players: humans win 0 6 players: humans win 0 7 players: humans win 0.133 8 players: humans win 0.083 9 players: humans win 0.229 10 players: humans win 0.157 11 players: humans win 0.299 12 players: humans win 0.215 13 players: humans win 0.352 14 players: humans win 0.264 15 players: humans win 0.395 16 players: humans win 0.305 17 players: humans win 0.430 18 players: humans win 0.339 19 players: humans win 0.460 20 players: humans win 0.370 21 players: humans win 0.485 (three wolves) 7 players: humans win 0 8 players: humans win 0 9 players: humans win 0.057 10 players: humans win 0.031 11 players: humans win 0.115 12 players: humans win 0.069 13 players: humans win 0.164 14 players: humans win 0.106 15 players: humans win 0.207 16 players: humans win 0.140 17 players: humans win 0.245 18 players: humans win 0.170 19 players: humans win 0.278 20 players: humans win 0.199 21 players: humans win 0.306 (four wolves) 9 players: humans win 0 10 players: humans win 0 11 players: humans win 0.025 12 players: humans win 0.012 13 players: humans win 0.058 14 players: humans win 0.031 15 players: humans win 0.090 16 players: humans win 0.052 17 players: humans win 0.122 18 players: humans win 0.074 19 players: humans win 0.151 20 players: humans win 0.096 21 players: humans win 0.178 22 players: humans win 0.116 23 players: humans win 0.202 24 players: humans win 0.136 25 players: humans win 0.225 26 players: humans win 0.154 27 players: humans win 0.245

Werewolf Rules

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