New maps=New reasons to follow CA politics

On Election Night 2002, it became incredibly evident that the new "incumbent protection" remap of California (in the wake of the 2000 census) had neutered the Golden State as it related to competitive, exciting politics. Only one race out of the 53 House races in California was decided by a single-digit margin: Dennis Cardoza's still decisive victory (51-43) over Republican Dick Monteith in the somewhat swing-y 18th district in the Central Valley.

An eye-popping 49 of the 53 races were won by a candidate earning 60 percent or more of the vote.

It ushered in a decade where California, despite being the home to one in eight House seats in America, was an afterthought in House politics. Only in the wave election of 2006 did any seats change hands--one seat, to be exact (Jerry McNerney, who wrested CA-11 away from veteran Republican Richard Pombo). Despite having several targets here in 2010, the GOP was turned away, even as they gained over sixty seats nationally.

The newly-created independent redistricting process, carried out by the California Citizens Redistricting Commission, has put California squarely on the map again when discussing the balance of power in the House.

While the big story when the maps were revealed in August focused on the fact that the Congressional map favored the Democrats to some extent, an often overlooked aspect of the California remap is the sheer volume of competitive races created. No less than a dozen seats in the Golden State could flip hands, with competitiveness all over the map to varying degrees. And it isn't just Republicans that are under the gun—several Democrats will find themselves fighting for their seats like never before.

What follows is an examination of those potentially competitive seats. While several of these, perhaps even the majority of these, will stay in the same hands after 2012, all bear watching to some extent (all links to districts are PDF files of the new district maps).

CA-03: John Garamendi (D)

Since his special election victory in 2009, Garamendi has represented a Democratic-friendly patch of the East Bay long represented by Democrat Ellen Tauscher. While swingier than most of the reliably blue SF Bay area, it was comfortable ground nevertheless. In the new remap, Garamendi's environs get pushed further north and east, taking in GOP counties like Sutter, Colusa, Yuba, and Glenn. However, two-thirds of the district lies in more Dem friendly counties (Yolo and Solano). Jerry Brown carried the district in 2010, but not decisively.

CA-07: Dan Lungren (R)

Lungren's new district is a swing district located in the eastern part of Sacramento County. It's Democratic-friendly enough to have made Lungren briefly flirt with the idea of going toe-to-toe with neighboring Republican Tom McClintock in the now-comfortably Republican 4th district (his old 3rd district contained GOP turf in Calaveras and Amador Counties that are now in the 4th). In a horrific Democratic year, Democrat Ami Bera came pretty close to Lungren. Without a big tailwind, and without as favorable a district, Lungren has to be very, very worried.

CA-09: Jerry McNerney (D)

McNerney has been under the gun since being elected in 2006, never winning with more than 55 percent of the vote. In this new district, that isn't likely to change. Working in his favor: he gets some of the more Dem-friendly territory in San Joaquin County. Previously, the bluest parts of the county were in Dennis Cardoza's 18th district. Indeed, while Meg Whitman actually carried McNerney's old 11th district narrowly last year, she would have lost in the new 9th district.

CA-10: Jeff Denham (R)

Freshman Republican Jeff Denham was elected last year in the friendly confines of the 19th district (55-40 Whitman). Post-redistricting, Denham got shifted to the 10th district, centered in Stanislaus County. While still GOP-leaning, it is considerably less so than his old stomping grounds. Meg Whitman would have hovered right around 50 percent of the vote here. Denham still starts out as a prohibitive favorite, but the right Dem, in the right climate, could have more than a puncher's chance. The DCCC seems pretty high on a recent recruit into the race, former astronaut (yes, you read that right) Jose Hernandez.

CA-16: Jim Costa/Dennis Cardoza (D)

It is still an open question as to who the incumbent here will be. The most persistent speculation is that Cardoza will retire, giving Costa an open shot at this Fresno-centric seat in the Central Valley. If the GOP plays here, it could be a competitive race. Costa ran behind Jerry Brown in his Fresno-based 20th district last year, winning 51-49 even as Brown was carrying the district by a 56-37 margin. And the seat is not uniformly blue, by any stretch of the imagination. Both Madera and Merced Counties went to Whitman in 2010.

CA-21: No Incumbent (New District)

This seat, which stretches from the Fresno County "suburbs" of Sanger and Selma all the way down into Bakersfield, has some Democratic-friendly communities along the CA-99 highway corridor. But it also has some definite red territory, which might explain why neither Cardoza nor Costa was willing to move down the highway and run here. The Dems did draw at least one decent candidate into the fold, as it looks like Bakersfield-area state senator Michael Rubio will make a bid. Republicans are likely to counter with state legislator David Valadao. This is the district with the second-highest Latino population in the state (71 percent of the district).

CA-24: Lois Capps (D)

An early pick for a "race to watch" can be found on the state's Central coast, where the political makeup of Lois Capps' district was altered pretty dramatically. For the previous decade, Capps enjoyed a coastal district which drew together Dem areas. The net result was a district that went 56-39 for Jerry Brown last year. Now, the district contains all of blue-tinted Santa Barbara County and red-tinted San Luis Obispo County. The net result? A district that split almost perfectly between Brown voters and Whitman voters in 2010. What's more: Capps has already drawn a serious candidate in the person of former GOP Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado. Keep an eye on this one.

CA-26: Elton Gallegly (R)

There is actually no guarantee that Gallegly runs here, but he is nominally the incumbent for this Ventura County-based district (even though his home was drawn into neighboring GOPer Buck McKeon's district). The district is a pure swing district, and a longtime veteran like Gallegly might lack the fire in the belly to run in a district that is far from a sure thing. This is also the district where allegedly allies of veteran Dem Howard Berman are trying to convince Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman to run (recall that Berman and Sherman were drawn into the same safe San Fernando Valley seat). One has to assume Sherman won't make that switch. While this district is winnable for a Democrat, it is far from a safe seat. Sherman would have to defend this seat every two years, because the GOP bench here is far from shallow.

CA-31: No Incumbent (New District)

In this case, the header should probably read "no incumbent (at least not yet)." There are actually a couple of Republican candidates that could land here. David Dreier's home in San Dimas got drawn into the uber-Democratic neighboring 32nd district, so expediency might pull him to this district (if not into retirement). This district is actually home to Republican Rep. Jerry Lewis, but he might flip over the San Bernardino Mountains into the less urban 8th district, which is quite a bit more Republican. If he stays, though, he gets a district that only slightly leans to the GOP. This was also the district that included most of the population from Democratic Rep. Joe Baca's hometown of Rialto, but he headed west to the more friendly Democratic confines in the 35th district (which also contained precincts in Rialto). The net result is that even though three incumbents could logically lay claim to this district, it is very possible that none of them will. The district has offsetting Democratic communities (San Bernardino, Rialto, Colton) and Republican communities (Rancho Cucamonga, Redlands, Upland), and this leads to a district that leans to the Democrats slightly.

CA-36: Mary Bono Mack (R)

Bono Mack's district in Riverside County was one of the few close races with a California Republican incumbent in 2010. Her district is changed a bit around the edges from the previous decade, but one could make a pretty compelling argument that incumbent that only managed a nine-point win with a gigantic tailwind merits watching. The district (which went roughly 50-44 for Whitman in 2010) leans Republican, but is not overwhelmingly so.

CA-41: No Incumbent (New District)

This new district, which is centered on the Inland Empire urban centers of Riverside and Moreno Valley, seems more likely than not to elect a Democrat. But it is not a foregone conclusion: this district leans Democratic only slightly more than the 36th district leans to the GOP. Democrats have a trove of candidates who ran here when this was the Ken Calvert seat, including 2008/2010 nominee Bill Hedrick. Calvert decided to stick with his hometown of Corona, which is in the friendlier confines of the neighboring 42nd district. Instead, Republicans are countering with Riverside County Supervisor John Tavaglione.

CA-47: No Incumbent (New District)

Most of Long Beach is located in the new 47th district (current Long Beach Rep. Laura Richardson elected to run a little further to the north in the 44th), which would make it rather easy to conclude that this district is a Democratic district. After all, Dems carried Long Beach by nearly a two-to-one margin in last year's gubernatorial election. However, 41 percent of the new district is in Orange County, and only one of the included communities (Stanton) went for Jerry Brown last year. Because of the pronounced lean of Long Beach, one has to call the Democratic nominee a favorite here. But the GOP did get some decent firepower to try to challenge for this seat: they will likely make the run here in 2012 with former Rep. Steve Kuykendall, who parlayed a moderate reputation into a victory in 1998 over (current Rep.) Janice Hahn.

CA-52: Brian Bilbray (R)

Supporters of the veteran Republican were among those bleating the loudest when the maps were released in August. A cursory glance confirms why: his old district lumped together enough GOP-friendly territory to give Bilbray a district that had a noticeably Republican lean (Meg Whitman carried the district by a solid 55-40 margin last year). Now, his district includes about half of the population in the city of San Diego: much more mixed territory. Even the inclusion of Republican-friendly suburbs like Coronado and inland Poway probably don't totally offset the bluer precincts in the city. The shift in the district was enough to attract a serious challenger for Bilbray, as former state legislator Lori Saldana announced her intentions to run earlier in the cycle. Others are sure to follow, and Bilbray has a serious battle on his hands.