Last week I messed up. A copy-and-paste error led to me failing to recognise fully half of the contestants who had correctly called all six games correctly in week 11, and for that I can only apologise. Well, that and belatedly seek to make amends. Congratulations to FatSamurai, Flattery2 and especially to Angchan – to whom this has somehow now happened twice in the same season. Sorry!

Five others matched their achievements in week 12, so please remain on your feet, ladies and gentlemen, as we offer bobajob86, DSizzle2013, FraserAH, onestepforward and Steve Mansfield an equally rapturous round of applause. And then plonk yourself down in your comfiest chair, and get to picking this weeks games.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)

The path to the postseason does not get any easier for the Chiefs. Even after an impressive road win over the Broncos, their 8-3 record is still only sufficient to place them second in the AFC West, with further divisional matchups against Denver (7-4) and Oakland (9-2) still to come after this game against NFC South leaders Atlanta (7-4). In Kansas City’s favour is an improving pass rush: both Justin Houston and Tamba Hali were deemed healthy enough to have snap-count restrictions lifted for the win at Mile High Stadium, and subsequently combined for four sacks. Dee Ford, who leads the team with 10, missed that game but was back at practice on Wednesday. As a trio, they should certainly make life difficult for Matt Ryan – but will that alone be enough? He faced plenty of pressure from the Cardinals’ No1-ranked defense last week and still helped his team to put 38 points on the board.



Falcons to win



San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)

With a shot at next year’s second overall draft pick on the line (Cleveland won’t blow the No1 from here, right?), neither team’s fans will much relish the idea of winning this Sunday. Players and coaches, though, are out there fighting for their careers, and at least one has done a pretty good job these past few weeks. Colin Kaepernick threw for 1,110 yards, and rushed for 223 more, in the month of November – putting up a total of nine combined touchdowns against just three turnovers. Week by week, he is making a case to be retained as the 49ers’ starting quarterback for next year. In Chicago, by contrast, they might be happy to take anybody who can stay healthy for more than two weeks at a time. Matt Barkley threw for 316 yards and three scores in his starting debut against Tennessee, but much of that came in junk time against a prevent defense. In a game between two very bad teams, having a reliable option behind center should make all the difference.



49ers to win



Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens (Sunday 1pm ET/6pm GMT)

Six consecutive wins have propelled Miami into the thick of the playoff hunt, but is their form sustainable? They have been outgained by three of their past four opponents, including the Jets and 49ers. Teams are working out how to slow down Jay Ajayi – held to fewer than 80 rushing yards in each of this last three games – and, whilst the returns of left guard Laremy Tunsil and left tackle Branden Albert should help his cause immensely, the Ravens own the stingiest run defense in the league. They should get a major upgrade in the secondary, as well, after Jimmy Smith rejoined practice on Wednesday. Oh, and visiting teams have averaged just 14.3 points per game at M&T Bank Stadium.



Ravens to win



Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Diego Chargers (Sunday 4.25pm ET/9.25pm GMT)

Jameis Winston and the Bucs are playing well on both sides of the ball. Photograph: Reinhold Matay/USA Today Sports

The Chargers are a talented team who find ways to lose games that they should win. The Buccaneers a team whose talent was questioned after a poor start (anyone remember that 40-7 shellacking in Arizona?), but who have lately been winning matchups – from a road victory in Kansas City to a suffocation of Seattle – in which few people had even given them a hope. An offense featuring Jameis Winston and Mike Evans knows how to hang in a shootout, but it is the improvement on defense that is most eye-catching. Russell Wilson had been sacked 20 times and thrown two picks all season before he went to Tampa Bay. The Bucs reached him six times, and made sure that he matched his interception total in a single afternoon. Coast-to-coast road trips always make me uneasy, but this team is playing well on both sides of the ball.



Buccaneers to win



Washington @ Arizona Cardinals (Sunday 4.25pm ET/9.25pm GMT)

Only one of these teams looks like a playoff contender. Washington earned that status by beating two possible rivals – Green Bay and Minnesota – in November before pushing Dallas right to the end. With the league’s No2-ranked offense, led by a quarterback playing at an All-Pro level – Kirk Cousins completed 72.4% of his passes for 1,086 yards, eight scores and no interceptions last month – this is a team that nobody wants to face. The same could not be said for Arizona. The Cardinals have won once in their last five games and have practically been eliminated from the playoffs at 4-6-1. Their quarterback keeps getting pummeled behind a broken offensive line and only one of his receivers can be trusted to catch the ball. So why would I give them a shot in this game? Maybe it’s the No2-ranked pass defense – the best Cousins has faced yet in this run. Maybe it’s the injuries that threaten to keep DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed out of Washington’s lineup. Maybe it’s nothing more than a hunch.



Cardinals to win



Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets (Monday 8.30pm ET/Tuesday 1.30am GMT)

Andrew Luck cannot have fond memories of playing the Jets. In two career meetings with these opponents, he has thrown five interceptions and both times posted a passer rating below 53.0. Assuming he does make it through the NFL’s concussion protocol, however, this time ought to go better. The Jets’ defense – and especially their pass defense – is flagging, with Darrelle Revis a shadow of himself and reportedly contemplating retirement. Only two teams have fewer sacks, and we all know what Luck is capable of on those rare occasions when he is actually given time to pick a pass.



Colts to win

