BRIAN KEMP, Georgia’s secretary of state (pictured), has a scheme to bring his state into the political spotlight. He wants Georgia to hold a presidential primary on March 1st 2016. Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma and Virginia are scheming to join in. Even Florida may add its considerable weight to this group. By holding primaries so early in the nomination process, these states hope to play a bigger role in shaping the race. A “Southern Super Tuesday” would force prospective presidential candidates from both parties to woo the region’s voters, say its backers. A bit more backslapping and handshaking in the area could deliver some welcome business to the odd barbecue restaurant, too.

But theory and practice rarely go hand-in-hand, warns Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia’s Centre for Politics. It is entirely unclear just how a big Southern primary will alter political events, he says. Besides, “the candidates won’t start worrying about March 1st until they’re done worrying about February 2016. If you lose both Iowa and New Hampshire you’re in trouble already.” Other states may decide to hold early contests too, he adds, which would diminish the significance of Southern results.

The idea of a Southern Super Tuesday is not new. Democrats pushed for one in 1988, partially to ensure that the nominee would be appealing to Southern voters. The result? An unhelpful split between Michael Dukakis, Jesse Jackson and Al Gore.

Early primaries in the South could empower some of the more extreme Republican hopefuls. For example Mike Huckabee, a Baptist minister, right-wing pundit and former governor of Arkansas, won Georgia’s primary back in 2008. Ted Cruz, a Texas senator backed by Tea Party types, is also likely to do well among Southerners who hate Obamacare, shun abortion and zealously protect their right to own guns. A centrist such as Chris Christie, New Jersey's governor, would probably be trounced.

Any Republican who struggles in the South has little hope of capturing the White House, argues Charles Bullock of the University of Georgia. Yet a clear, conservative winner of a Southern Super Tuesday may end up alienating national voters in November 2016.

The variety of conservative candidates jostling for votes in the region may ultimately play into the hands of Jeb Bush, the son and brother of past presidents and formerly Florida’s governor. A more moderate candidate, keen on Common Core education standards and immigration reform, Mr Bush could come out on top if the other candidates end up splitting the right-wing vote. “It’s very much worth his while to have a big Southern primary,” reckons Mr Bullock. Some are also starting to bet on a victory by Scott Walker, Wisconsin's governor and another centrist, who appears to be enjoying some momentum now.

But really, it's anyone's guess what the race will look like a year from now, and how a Southern primary might influence it. Looking to past results to predict future outcomes is hubris, says Mr Sabato. “The problem with our politics in America is the same as with our wars: we always fight the last one,” he says. “Every presidential election begins with analysis firmly rooted in the previous one."