india

Updated: Apr 09, 2019 21:22 IST

The by-elections to four assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu, one each in Karnataka and Goa will be held on May 19 with the seventh and last phase of polling for the Lok Sabha elections, said the Election Commission on Tuesday.

In Tamil Nadu, bypolls would be held for Ottappidaram (SC), Aravakkurichi, Thirupparankundram and Sulur legislative assembly constituencies, while Panaji and Kundgol are the other assembly constituencies in Goa and Karnataka, respectively.

Tamil Nadu’s 39 Lok Sabha seats as well as 18 assembly seats whose legislators were disqualified by the speaker - for switching camps from the ruling AIADMK to the rebel TTV Dhinakaran-led AMMK party - will see polls being held on April 18. With the latest announcement, TN will see all the 22 vacant seats in the assembly going for polls, making it a mini-assembly election in a house of 234 legislators.

“The candidates can file nomination from April 22. The last date for filing papers is April 29. Candidates could withdraw their nominations up to May 2. The by-elections for these four seats will be held on May 19. The EC will count the votes on May 23, results will be out on the same day as well,” the EC notification read.

With the EC announcement for four more assembly seats, the fate of the current Edappadi K Palaniswami-led All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) government hangs in balance as it enjoys a wafer thin majority in the assembly. The AIADMK has to win at least eight seats to save their government.

The Tamil Nadu legislative assembly has 234 MLAs. However, after disqualification of 18 AIADMK MLAs, the strength of the house has come down to 216 in September 2017. Subsequently, the demise of DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi and AIADMK MLA AK Bose made Thiruvarur and Thirupparankundram seats vacant in August last, bringing total vacancies to 20.

Amid these developments, Hosur MLA Balakrishna Reddy was disqualified after a special court convicted him in a riot case. With the demise of Sulur MLA Kanagaraj, the strength in the TN assembly has further dropped to 212 now and total vacancies to 22.

While the DMK has 88 MLAs, its allies the Congress has eight and the IUML has one representative in the house. The DMK front has the support of 97 MLAs in TNLA. Meanwhile, rebel AIADMK leader TTV Dhinakaran is the only independent in the house. Even as Thamimun Ansari, S Karunas, U Thaniyarasu are three independent MLAs, they are technically AIADMK legislators as they won under the AIADMK’s ‘Two leaves’ symbol.

While Ansari supports the DMK now, Thaniyarasu owes allegiance to the AIADMK. Karunas has said he will not support either front. Also, Dhinakaran says he has the support of Viruthachalam AIADMK MLA Kalaichelvan and Kallakkurichi AIADMK MLA A Prabhu.

Since the house’s total strength is 234, the AIADMK needs at least 118 MLAs to support it to prove the simple majority after May 23rd when results are declared. Thus the AIADMK has to win a minimum of eight seats to save their government.

In Karnataka, the Kundagol seat fell vacant after Congress legislator CS Shivalli, a minister in the Kumaraswamy government, died. Similarly, the Panaji seat has fallen vacant after the death of Goa CM Manohar Parrikar.

Therefore, the AIADMK has 110 MLAs (including speaker) support in the house. The DMK has the support of 98 MLAs. TTV Dhinakaran has three MLAs.