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But none of that is particularly new. The singular question has long been “What did Stephen Harper know?”. Did he know of the initial plan to have Duffy’s tab repaid out of party funds? Did he know Wright had signed the eventual $90,000 cheque? In both cases the answer in sworn testimony was “no.” So, there is no “smoking gun.” The general cloud over the PMO remains; it may be one reason why the Conservatives have been stuck at roughly 30 per cent support among decided voters. But that floor remains firm.

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The wrinkle is that a third of votes cast don’t spell victory, even if the Tories wind up winning more seats than their rivals. A Blue Team minority of, say, 155 (of the 170 seats needed for a majority) could conceivably limp into 2016, as I have written previously; or it might be defeated immediately by the combined votes of New Democrats and Liberals. One way or another, it would have no staying power.

So, which party has the best shot at a majority, given the current dynamic? The quick answer is none. Tom Mulcair had momentum coming into the campaign, but that was before his English debate performance last week, which, though not as bad as his detractors would have us believe, was not the win he needed. He got tagged with two marquee NDP postures guaranteed to cost him heavily in vote-rich Ontario: ripping up the federal Clarity Act, and opposing pipelines. Mulcair was asked again Wednesday to make clear whether he is for or against the plan for an Energy East pipeline linking Alberta with the St. Lawrence. His response was incomprehensible.