Johnson doesn’t see himself as a receptacle for protest votes. | REUTERS The Gary Johnson factor

Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson’s chances of becoming president haven’t changed much over the course of the 2012 cycle, during which he ran for the Republican presidential nomination, participated in two national debates, dropped out of the primaries and reentered the race as the Libertarian Party nominee.

Throughout, his odds of national victory have held steady around zero.


But as the presidential race heads into the summer, with President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney locked in a tight contest and voters’ distaste for both major-party candidates running high, political operatives have started pondering a different question: Could Johnson matter, even on the election’s margins?

( Also on POLITICO: Gary Johnson's magic number)

Poll after poll shows lackluster enthusiasm for Obama and Romney, along with continuing voter disgust with Washington and most national institutions. That probably isn’t enough to push even a single electoral vote into Johnson’s camp. It could, however, put just enough ballots in Johnson’s column — in a kind of disaffected,“throw-the-bums- out” way — to affect the outcome in a handful of states.

Early polling has shown Johnson taking more from Romney, although pollsters say he’s peeling off votes from Obama as well. Johnson has said he expects to be on the ballot in all 50 states.

If there’s an opportunity for Johnson to make a difference anywhere, it’s likely in Mountain states such as his native New Mexico, and Colorado and Nevada, where he could shave votes from the major-party candidates. In a close race that neither side thinks will be an electoral landslide, Johnson could make a real difference — especially with Ron Paul’s libertarian-leaning backers now up for grabs.

“The people who are saying they’re going vote for Johnson right now generally are people who dislike both Obama and Romney,” said Tom Jensen, of the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, which has found Johnson polling between 5 percent and 10 percent in some states.

Those numbers will eventually fall back to earth, Jensen predicted: “I’m just relying on history on that front — unless a third-party candidate’s really well-funded and getting visibility similar to the others that they’re facing [they fade]. Most of these people who are saying they’re voting for Gary Johnson right now will end up voting for Romney.”

Johnson doesn’t see himself as a receptacle for protest votes.

“I’d like to think it’s because of what I’m saying,” the former governor told POLITICO in an interview, referring to polls showing him getting well above 5 percent in some swing states.

“It’s not so much the discontent, although that may be a factor,” he added, invoking Paul’s own declaration when the Texas congressman ended his active campaigning that he still had a following who embraces his small government, libertarian message.

Nearly every cycle, there’s speculation that a third-party candidate could catch fire, or simply gain enough traction to affect the top-line results. Nearly always, that candidate fades before the general election takes place. The most famous third-party candidate in recent presidential history is Ross Perot, who was polling at 39 percent in the summer of 1992, ultimately collecting just short of 19 percent of the national vote and getting no electoral college votes.

( Also on POLITICO: Full 2012 election coverage)

“At the end of the day, most people don’t want to throw away their votes,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

Yet the pervasive dislike of the two major 2012 hopefuls could linger and be exploited in places where Johnson is well known.

“I really think Gary Johnson takes New Mexico off the table for Mitt Romney,” said Jill Hanauer, president of the Democratic firm Project New America, which polls Western states.

Colorado, Hanauer said, is another state that’s ripe for Johnson’s influence, especially given the fight there over a ballot referendum to legalize medical marijuana that Johnson supports. A PPP survey recently showed the former governor getting seven percent of the vote, and pushing Obama’s lead wider there over Romney. Nevada also has potential.

“In Nevada, we saw a lot of support during the Republican primary for Ron Paul. … I bet a million bucks they’re going to turn their eyes to Gary Johnson,” Hanauer said. “And the Republican Party [there] is economically conservative, but Nevadans are generally very moderate on social issues.”

In a PowerPoint presentation to donors, Romney’s campaign has identified Colorado, Arizona and Nevada as three states on their battleground map. Obama’s map is looser than Romney’s, with more avenues to 270 electoral votes — but the president would be more than happy to have the help of Johnson in locking Romney out of certain states.

Yet Johnson’s biggest problems, as Hanauer said, are “money and time.”

Johnson, of course, is underfunded and running a small operation. He takes press calls himself on his cell phone. He would need help from, say, a super PAC to amplify his message — something to which he is receptive.

“It [super PAC funding] would be a big help,” Johnson said, adding, “It does seem there are a few [major donors] that are interested,” although he didn’t elaborate.

Johnson sees himself drawing from both Obama and Romney, something most pollsters agree with. And he believes he has more than regional appeal as a tax-cutting, small-government deficit hawk who also supports gay rights and legalizing marijuana.

He summarized Romney’s budget prescriptions as: “I’m going to balance the budget, BUT I’m going to increase spending for the military a little bit, and I’m going to hold Medicare intact.” Quipped Johnson: “I finished the second grade and the mathematics of the second grade tell me that what he’s talking about is not possible.”

Yet Obama is not much better, Johnson said. The president, Johnson says, skipped opportunities to get cleanly out of Afghanistan, has disappointed medical marijuana advocates — a major Johnson issue and one that plays well in Colorado — and also has done poorly on the economy.

Johnson believes the biggest hurdle he faces is getting swept “under the rug” if he doesn’t get included in national polling.

“Unlike the Republican primary, where if you had 2 percent, or 1 percent, or 3 percent, I think you [could] sweep that under the rug and nobody notices,” he said. “But if it’s 7, 8, 9, 12 [percent], you can’t sweep that under the rug.”

Politicos throughout the West are skeptical that Johnson — or any other independent candidate — is in a position to gain much traction this year. In theory, Johnson offers something for both the left and the right to like.

But given how polarized the Democratic and Republican bases are this year, and how few genuine swing voters exist, there may only be a tiny number of people willing to cast largely symbolic votes for a third-party candidate.

Nevada conservative activist Chuck Muth, who describes himself as a Johnson admirer, suggested the New Mexican is making two big mistakes: not emphasizing his fiscal record strongly enough, and trying to campaign in swing states where even disgruntled libertarians may be loath to burn their vote.

“Gary hasn’t done himself any favors. The issues that make Gary Johnson and Ron Paul very attractive to people like me are the economic issues, the spending issues, the tax issues,” Muth said. “The problem here is unemployment and the economy, and he’s running on gay marriage and marijuana.”

If Johnson wants to run up a popular-vote tally for the Libertarian Party cause, Muth argued, he should be making his pitch to hard-core partisans in “solid red and solid blue [states] — that’s where he could get the popular votes.”

“I believe he’ll do better than any Libertarian candidate for president has ever done in previous presidential elections,” said Allen Weh, who headed the New Mexico Republican Party for half a decade.

That may say more about the Libertarian Party’s past performance than Johnson’s future results. And it likely speaks to the former Republican governor’s ties to his home state of New Mexico.

“Except for his controversial drug advocacy, Gary is remembered, and well-respected, by most New Mexicans as a good governor who took good care of the state and kept us in the black,” Weh said. “The question still remains, who he will take those votes from? His thesis that he’ll draw equally from both sides may be more realistic now than perhaps thought a year ago, as evidenced by the protest vote by Democrats against Obama in several state primaries across the nation.”

Former Colorado Rep. Bob Beauprez, a Republican and Romney supporter, acknowledged that it’s “possible” Johnson could shave off enough votes from one party or another to tip the race in his state. He doesn’t consider it likely.

”Frankly, I have heard nothing since he left the field of battle on the Republican primary side, however many months that was ago. I’ve heard nothing about him,” Beauprez said, adding: “I guess you can find some small percentage that’s willing to vote for ‘none of the above.’”

In the historically libertarian and anti-establishment-leaning New Hampshire, operatives are skeptical that Johnson will have a true impact.

Former GOP Sen. Gordon Humphrey, a longtime conservative activist in the Granite State who supported Rick Perry’s campaign, shrugged off Johnson’s prospects there.

“I rather doubt [Johnson] will attract many votes in New Hampshire, given the uniform dislike of Barack Obama among Republicans,” he wrote in an email. “Almost no one will want to waste his vote on a third candidate in these particular circumstances, as I see it.”

Still, the ever-present caveat is that it does not take that many disaffected, pox-on-both-your-houses votes to swing an election that’s as close as the one in 2012. It doesn’t take a Perot-like phenomenon to make a difference on the margins.

Just ask Al Gore about Ralph Nader’s performance in New Hampshire and Florida in 2000. And the electorate’s loathing of Washington and the two major political parties has only grown since then.

Nevada political journalist Jon Ralston wrote in a portentous Friday column that Republicans wouldn’t be out of bounds if they took active steps toward thwarting Johnson’s campaign.

“In case you think they worry too much — and in case you wonder why they may try [quixotically, perhaps] to stop the state’s Libertarian Party from nominating Gary Johnson to be on the November ballot — remember 1998: John Ensign lost to Harry Reid by 428 votes. The Libertarian candidate, Michael Cloud, received 8,044 votes and ‘None of these candidates’ took 8,125,” Ralston wrote. “What if those 16,000 votes had to be apportioned without those choices? Yes, some might not have voted. But those that still would have might have changed Nevada history.”