Gregg Doyel

gregg.doyel@indystar.com

According to the mock drafts, the best possible player for the Indiana Pacers is falling. According to the mock drafts, he’s falling to the Pacers. And then past the Pacers.

This can’t happen again, can it? Another sensationally versatile college player from Michigan State falling all the way to the Pacers in the bottom half of the first round … and ignored by the Pacers, because of “concerns”?

The Pacers blew it in 2012 when they let Draymond Green slip past them at No. 26.

Will they blow it again Thursday night and let Denzel Valentine slip past them at No. 20?

Maybe they don’t get the chance. Hey, the NBA draft is a crazy thing – Cleveland took Anthony Bennett No. 1 overall in 2013 – and the draft experts are split on Denzel Valentine. Folks at ESPN, CBS and Yahoo have Valentine sitting there at No. 20 … and being bypassed by the Pacers for Brice Johnson or someone named, let’s see, Juan Hernangomez. But at NBA.com, NBADraft.net and HoopsHype, Valentine is gone before the Pacers are on the clock at No. 20.

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Not too long ago, Valentine was seen as a likely lottery pick. His plummeting draft stock isn’t exactly Draymond Green 2.0, who fell out of the first round in 2012 because scouts thought he was a ‘tweener defensively: too small for power forward, too slow for small forward.

In addition to his 13 triple-doubles this past season, Draymond Green made the NBA’s All-Defensive team for the second consecutive season.

The Pacers picked Miles Plumlee in 2012.

Unlike Green in 2012, Valentine’s allegedly skidding draft stock isn’t a knock on his ability (though some NBA teams do wonder if Valentine is quick enough to run an offense and guard elite perimeter players). Valentine is reportedly sliding down to the Pacers – and past the Pacers – because of bad knees.

And listen, bad knees are a bad thing. The Pacers devoted their biggest free-agent contract in years to Monta Ellis last season, and he has had issues in both knees. Sure enough, his production dropped dramatically in his first season – his first of four seasons, at about $11 million per year – with the Pacers.

But not all knee issues are created equal. Valentine, who missed four games as a Michigan State senior with torn cartilage in his left knee – and whose right knee is said to be the worse one – has had his knee situation compared to two players picked in the 2006 draft: Danny Granger and Brandon Roy. The concern with Valentine’s knees, like the knee issues that eventually ended the careers of Granger and Roy, is long-term, nothing immediate.

Let me ask you a question. If Pacers President Larry Bird thought he could get seven seasons out of Valentine like the seven the Pacers got from Granger (18.2 ppg) – or four seasons like the four Portland got from Brandon Roy (20.2 ppg) – don’t you think he'd jump at that?

At No. 20 overall?

This isn’t a lottery pick, you know? The No. 20 pick isn’t a sure thing, though it’s close – close to being irrelevant. Here in order are the No. 20 picks over the past dozen years, starting with 2015: Delon Wright, Bruno Caboclo, Tony Snell, Evan Fournier, Donatas Motiejunas, James Anderson, Eric Maynor, Alexis Ajinca, Jason Smith, Renaldo Balkman and Julius Hodge.

History says the Pacers aren’t likely to get a great player at No. 20, or even a very good one. Denzel Valentine could be great. Maybe not for long, maybe just for three or four years, but wouldn’t you take that over Renaldo Balkman?

Valentine would fill the Pacers’ most glaring need, too: point guard. The team ought to be in play for the best point guard on the free-agent market this summer, Michael Conley of the Memphis Grizzlies – and Lawrence North – but who knows? Conley’s the best point guard on the market, as I said. A dozen or more teams will pursue him. He’s no sure thing.

Valentine isn’t either. Maybe he isn’t quick enough to run the point. Maybe he’s a future combo guard, and the Pacers have a glut of those: Ellis, George Hill, Rodney Stuckey, Joe Young. Whoever’s there for the Pacers at No. 20, he’ll be there because he’s not a sure thing.

Best and worst Pacers draft picks under Larry Bird

If the Pacers are hot for Valentine, they’re playing it cool. He wasn’t among the draft-eligible players who worked out this spring for the team. Then again, what does that really mean? In 2012 the Pacers worked out one draft prospect two times, including 48 hours before the draft. They knew this guy as well as they knew any prospect.

And then they passed on that guy – his name is Draymond Green – for reasons that cannot be justified now.

Let’s see if it happens again Thursday night.

It can’t happen again.

Can it?

Find Star columnist Gregg Doyel on Twitter at@GreggDoyelStar or atwww.facebook.com/gregg.doyel