The Patriots playoff game against the Chiefs isn't for a few more days. I figured I'd give a small offseason preview centered around the Patriots salary cap. All of the cap information that will be used comes from Miguel Benzan, the most reliable Patriots capologist in the business. His website (patscap.com) and twitter (@PatsCap) are must-follows if one wants to know the intimate details of the Patriots financial position.

The general outlook of the Patriots salary cap is best portrayed in the image from this tweet by Miguel. Here is the most updated version from patscap.com.

Miguel has the Patriots with 53 total players under contract for 2016. I decided to take a look at which of the Patriots significant contributors from 2015 were under contract for 2016. Using footballoutsiders' snap count data and Miguel's 2016 contract data I made a chart that shows all the Patriots that played at least 10% of the team's offensive and defensive snaps in 2015 and their 2016 cap hit.

Player Snap % 2016 Tom Brady 98.8% $15,000,000 Malcolm Butler 98.8% $600,000 Logan Ryan 89.3% $1,825,813 Devin McCourty 84.7% $7,968,750 Rob Gronkowski 84.0% $6,618,750 Rob Ninkovich 81.4% $4,750,000 Patrick Chung 81.0% $3,287,500 Chandler Jones 78.8% $7,799,000 Josh Kline 77.4% $2,175,000 Sebastian Vollmer 73.0% $5,208,834 Jamie Collins 71.1% $1,196,683 David Andrews 68.4% $530,000 Shaq Mason 65.9% $635,881 Brandon LaFell 58.9% $3,675,000 Marcus Cannon 55.8% $4,754,168 Duron Harmon 55.1% $814,400 Tre' Jackson 54.3% $655,935 Dont'a Hightower 54.2% $7,751,000 Danny Amendola 51.5% $7,329,166 Jabaal Sheard 51.0% $6,812,500 Julian Edelman 47.0% $4,421,875 Malcom Brown 46.5% $1,730,280 Bryan Stork 43.9% $719,250 Keshawn Martin 43.0% Cameron Fleming 41.9% $150,292 Michael Williams 40.2% $525,000 Alan Branch 39.6% $2,725,000 Jerod Mayo 36.1% $11,400,000 Jonathan Freeny 35.6% $1,453,125 Scott Chandler 34.1% $3,050,000 LeGarrette Blount 27.5% Akiem Hicks 27.5% Justin Coleman 27.3% Dion Lewis 26.7% $1,087,500 James White 25.9% $699,772 Dominique Easley 25.1% $1,991,877 Sealver Siliga 23.2% Jordan Richards 21.8% $843,534 Nate Solder 20.5% $10,322,666 Aaron Dobson 19.0% $1,090,845 Brandon Bolden 17.1% $1,263,125 Tarell Brown 14.8% Leonard Johnson 14.3% $760,000 Geneo Grissom 12.0% $680,487



44 Patriots players saw the field 10% or more of the snaps on offense or defense in 2015 (22 offense, 22 defense). Of those 44 players, 38 are already under contract in 2016. The six players that are not currently under contract in 2016 are KeShawn Martin, LeGarette Blount, Akiem Hicks, Justin Coleman, LeGarrette Blount, and Tarrell Brown.

While the past few offseasons for the Patriots have been tumultuous, the 2016 offseason will hopefully be centered on extensions to the Patriots young defensive players. Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, and Malcolm Butler will all be free agents after the 2016 season. It is expected that the Patriots will try to extend as many as reasonable, similar to how the Patriots extended Nate Solder a year before his contract ran out.

Miguel has tweeted out his ideas for contracts for all four players but said in this tweet that he is not confident in the numbers for Malcolm Butler.

Chandler Jones

Jamie Collins

Dont'a Hightower (Contract for Collins is the same as in the above graphic)

Malcolm Butler



Here is a chart showing Miguel's cap projections for all four players through 2020.

Player 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Chandler Jones $6,550,000 $8,550,000 $11,550,000 $12,550,000 $14,050,000 Dont'a Hightower $6,450,000 $8,500,000 $10,450,000 $11,700,000 $13,300,000 Jamie Collins $5,500,000 $8,500,000 $10,250,000 $11,500,000 $12,000,000 Malcolm Butler $5,000,000 $7,000,000 $10,500,000 $11,000,000 $11,700,000



According to Miguel, Jones and Hightower's 2016 cap hits with those contracts would be around $1 million less than they're currently scheduled to be paying them. This lowering of that final year of the original contract is similar to what was done with Nate Solder. Solder originally was slated to count $7.438 million against the cap this year (2015). This year he only counted $5.605 million against it. Their extensions are the most realistic templates because of the precedent that is being set league-wide with 5th-year option extensions to top players.

The Collins contract was formatted similar to the way the Seahawks went about extending Bobby Wagner, a 2nd round pick just like Collins. If the Patriots could get Collins for that it'd be a steal.

The Butler contract has little to go off of. Most of the guaranteed money would be in the first few seasons of the contract so if Butler wasn't worth the $10+ million cap hits past 2017 the Patriots could move on without much consequences.

For the most part Miguel's predictions are all probably on the low end. These players are going to be the focus of the offseason regarding extensions. They are part of a young core of defenders that all play an important role on the defense. Some are more important than others, but they're all the top players on the team at their positions.

On the other side of the players-under-contract coin is the Patriots players that are on unsatisfactory contracts. On patscap.com Miguel has the amount of cap savings the Patriots would get if they decided to cut any given player. Using the players from the snap % chart I found every player that, if cut, would give the Patriots additional cap space. This list is only players that would give the Patriots more cap space than they are currently projected to get. Understand that just because a player can be cut doesn't mean they should be cut. However, I highlighted yellow what I believe to be the three contracts that are most likely to change between now and 2016. Whether that is via extension or cutting the player is anyone's guess.

Player Snap % 2016 2016 Cap Savings if Cut Tom Brady 98.8% $15,000,000 $3,000,000 Jerod Mayo 36.1% $11,400,000 $5,400,000 Chandler Jones 78.8% $7,799,000 $7,799,000 Dont'a Hightower 54.2% $7,751,000 $7,751,000 Danny Amendola 51.5% $7,329,166 $4,327,082 Jabaal Sheard 51.0% $6,812,500 $4,812,500 Sebastian Vollmer 73.0% $5,208,834 $2,525,000 Marcus Cannon 55.8% $4,754,168 $3,250,000 Rob Ninkovich 81.4% $4,750,000 $1,475,000 Julian Edelman 47.0% $4,421,875 $1,396,875 Brandon LaFell 58.9% $3,675,000 $2,500,000 Patrick Chung 81.0% $3,287,500 $1,575,000 Scott Chandler 34.1% $3,050,000 $1,525,000 Alan Branch 39.6% $2,725,000 $1,725,000 Josh Kline 77.4% $2,175,000 $1,562,500 Logan Ryan 89.3% $1,825,813 $1,685,000 Jonathan Freeny 35.6% $1,453,125 $650,000 Brandon Bolden 17.1% $1,263,125 $660,000 Jamie Collins 71.1% $1,196,683 $917,865 Aaron Dobson 19.0% $1,090,845 $872,505 Dion Lewis 26.7% $1,087,500 $687,500 Duron Harmon 55.1% $814,400 $681,000 Leonard Johnson 14.3% $760,000 $160,000 Bryan Stork 43.9% $719,250 $500,728 James White 25.9% $699,772 $500,728 Malcolm Butler 98.8% $600,000 $600,000 Michael Williams 40.2% $525,000 $525,000



According to Miguel the Patriots could gain almost $13 million in cap space for the 2016 offseason by cutting Jerod Mayo, Danny Amendola, and Marcus Cannon. Mayo and Cannon's contracts are deplorable. Amendola's isn't as bad as the other two and he has restructured his contract previously, but that's still a lot for at best the fourth receiving option in the Patriots offense behind Gronk, Minitron, and Little Dirty. Looking at the list there are other opportunities for small cap gains but most of those players are on contracts that are pretty fair value for their services. Miguel expects Scott Chandler to be cut.

The Patriots also have some players with options for 2016 that the Patriots must pick up in order to keep them. The notable two are defensive end Jabaal Sheard and defensive tackle Alan Branch. Sheard was third in snaps at defensive end behind Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. Early in the year it was clear that a rotation of the three was planned but injuries spelled doom for that plan. Branch played the second most snaps among defensive tackles, trailing only Malcom Brown. Once Easley went down Belichick relied much more heavily on Brown and Branch.

Both players had good 2015 seasons and add a quality rotation when everyone is healthy. Their options are also far more realistic than the option the Patriots wrote into Darrelle Revis' contract. I expect both of them to be kept.

Last but not least is the 2016 NFL draft. Nick Korte of overthecap.com is the best source for compensatory draft picks. He released his 2016 compensatory pick projections and had the Patriots getting an additional four selections in the 2016 draft due to players lost in free agency last year. If you're confused as to what compensatory picks are, I wrote a fanpost about it last year.

If these end up being true the Patriots will have 10 selections in the 2016 NFL draft.

Patriots 2016 Draft Picks From Comp. Player 2nd original 3rd original 3rd compensatory Revis 4th original 5th compensatory Wilfork 6th original OR Texans 6th compensatory Vereen 7th original 7th Texans 7th compensatory Ayers

When it comes to the rookies and the salary cap, there is a rookie cap and how the rookies apply to the team's salary cap during the season. The rookie cap number is often called a rookie pool. The rookie pool figure is predetermined by the NFL following the Collective Bargaining Agreement from 2011. When the NFL tells the Patriots what their 2016 rookie cap is, that is the number the Patriots must fit all their drafted players under. Miguel explained how the rookie cap works in a blog post last year.

Now for the complex part. A team can sign all of its draft picks but not have all of those draft picks count against the salary cap. The reason for that is because of something called the Rule of 51. Remember the graphic from the beginning of the fanpost?

What is the Rule of 51? When the new league year starts in the offseason team's are allowed to carry up to 90 players on their roster until the season starts - when they have to cut their rosters down to 53 players. During this time in the offseason there is no way that a team could fit all of their players under the salary cap. Because of this, the NFL only counts the Top 51 cap hits and all additional bonus money and dead money against a team's cap. The base salaries of the players below the Top 51 are excluded from the cap during this time.

The Rule of 51 is what allows teams to sign their rookies during the offseason. The rookie pool that each team must fit their draft picks under only influences the team's cap space during the offseason if the rookie's contract is greater than the 51st highest cap hit. As of right now, the Patriots 51st highest cap hit is $525,000 shared by Michael Williams and Chris Harper. That number will be higher by the time of the draft.

Last year only two rookies with contracts that broke the previous 51st highest cap hit - 1st round pick Malcom Brown and 2nd round pick Jordan Richards. Since the Patriots are without a 1st round pick this year because the commissioner can't even read the conclusions of the report he paid millions of dollars for, it is possible that the only Patriots rookie that will count against the Patriots cap for most of the offseason will be whomever they draft with their 2nd round pick. Not only that, but the overall rookie pool for the Patriots is going to be tiny and will likely not take up too much of the Patriots salary cap in 2016.

Overall the Patriots are in great shape. They just have to take care of some bad contracts and hopefully get some core guys extended for the future. They may even see a free agent they like and go after them like they did with Jabaal Sheard. The 2016 roster is well on its way to being set already and it's January. Few teams in the league can say that and Belichick has really maneuvered the cap well after the GTA debacle handicapped the Patriots the previous two seasons.