by Vincent Verhei

The NFL's individual star of Week 6 shined long before Sunday's games even kicked off. Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton stole the league's spotlight on Thursday night. And in fact, he did most of his damage early on Thursday, finishing the first quarter with 147 receiving yards against Houston. He wasn't a huge part of the Colts' game plan after that -- he was targeted five times in the first quarter, but only four times the rest of the game -- but his big plays early in the game did enough damage to alter the Texans' entire strategy and open opportunities for himself and his teammates.

Hilton's first target came with 12:20 to go in the opening quarter on Indianapolis' first drive. The Colts had a third-and-15 at midfield and came out in a three-wide set with two wideouts to the right, a tight end on the left, and Hilton split wide to that side, facing off with Johnathan Joseph (at the bottom of the following picture). Houston responded with dime personnel in a basic nickel look, moving safety D.J. Swearinger into essentially a middle linebacker position. At first they showed two safeties high in a two-deep look, but just before the ball was snapped Kendrick Lewis walked up to cover the tight end. The Texans then big-blitzed with six pass rushers, leaving Lewis and the cornerbacks in man coverage, with Danieal Manning a single-high safety in the middle of the field.

Indianapolis went max protect, with the three wideouts running routes while the running back and tight end stay in to block. With the tight end blocking, Lewis had nobody to cover, and he ended up twiddling his thumbs in a short zone. Hilton ran a simple go route down the sideline, getting a step outside Joseph. Manning had no prayer of reaching this route from the middle of the field. Joseph's coverage wasn't bad, but Andrew Luck made an incredible pass over Hilton's outside shoulder, and Joseph never had a chance to make a play on the ball.

The result: a 40-yard gain that set Indianapolis up with a first-and-goal at the 10. The drive died there and Adam Vinatieri kicked a field goal to put Indianapolis ahead 3-0, but the Hilton and the Colts were just getting started. Indianapolis followed with a surprise onside kick and recovered the ball, giving them a first down at their own 46, and they went right back to Hilton. They came out in a triple-tight end set, with two tight ends and Hilton to the offense's right side. Hilton ran a seam route down the field as Dwayne Allen (83) cut to the outside 15 yards deep. Joseph (24) and Swearinger (36) both moved outside to cover Allen, leaving Hilton running unmolested towards the end zone. Luck's pass was slightly overthrown and Hilton had to dive for it, which gave Kareem Jackson a chance to come over from the left side of the field and touch him down. (The play was originally ruled a touchdown, but replay confirmed that Jackson touched Hilton down at the 5.) Trent Richardson ran the ball in for a touchdown on the next play.

At this point the game was less than five minutes old, and Hilton had already scorched the Texans' secondary for two catches at least 38 yards downfield. This seemed to put the fear of God (or at least the fear of T.Y., but that doesn't sound anywhere near as cool) into Houston. Hilton's next catch, a 14-yard gain on first-and-10 at the 31, set up a touchdown pass from Luck to Ahmad Bradshaw. It was a simple pitch-and-catch against zone coverage, with a secondary so scared of giving up another big play they surrendered an easy first down in scoring range. Note that there were no receivers running towards the end zone here; Hilton was the deepest target on the play.

On their next drive, the Colts had a third-and-9 at their own 33. Houston dialed up another big blitz, sending seven rushers at Luck, but the Colts went max protect and Luck again had time to throw. Hilton lined up in the slot on the right side on this play, and burned Kareem Jackson (25) badly on a deep crossing route. The free safety (Lewis) took a bad angle on the play and ended up chasing Hilton, who had seemingly all of Texas in front of him. He gained 26 yards after the catch on this play, 37 yards in all.

Hilton's fifth reception came a few plays later, and it was really a great play by Luck more than anything Hilton did. The Colts used three tight ends again, and it looked like Luck wanted to hit Coby Fleener in the corner of the end zone, but the Texans had that route covered. John Simon, freshly signed off the Ravens' practice squad, pressured Luck from his left, but Luck danced away and scrambled to his right. Hilton simply settled into a zone and gave Luck an easy target. This was Hilton's only reception of the day that did not pick up a first down, but it was still a successful play.

Luck would get his touchdown to Fleener a few plays later on the last play of the first quarter. By that point, Indianapolis had scored a field goal and three touchdowns in four drives, with Hilton himself beating the Texans in total yardage (147 to 2) and first downs (four to zero). Hilton had just one target in the second quarter, a 9-yard gain on second-and-7. He lined up in the slot, across from Whitney Mercilus, a sure sign the Texans were playing zone coverage. Hilton easily crossed over into their vulnerable underbelly for a first down. Allen, crossing across the formation underneath Hilton and in the opposite direction, reached back and nearly tipped the ball. He came much closer to breaking up the pass than any of the Texans did.

[ad placeholder 3]

Hilton's early home runs apparently flustered the Texans so badly that they feared a deep route run by anyone with a horseshoe on his helmet. In the third quarter, the Colts had a first-and-10 at their own 46, now protecting a narrow 27-21 lead after a furious Houston rally. Hilton and Reggie Wayne both lined up on the right side of the field, with Hilton running a deep out from the slot while Wayne ran a go route from the outside. Now, Reggie Wayne is a Pro Bowler, a Super Bowl champion, and a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate, but he's also 36 years old, with three touchdowns in the past year and a half. Why is it, then, that everyone in deep steel blue covered Wayne, while nobody covered Hilton, the guy who had been killing the Texans all night long? The following screencap was taken at the moment Hilton caught the ball. None of the deeper defenders had even turned around by then. If Hilton's momentum hadn't carried him out of bounds, he might have run for big yardage. As it was, he had 18 yards and a first down.

Hilton had spent all night producing big plays that allowed his teammates to score, but a few plays later he was finally able to score himself. The Colts had a second-and-7 at the Houston 33, and again they lined up with two receivers right, Wayne out wide and Hilton in the slot. Hilton ran a deep crossing route. It's hard to tell if the Texans were going with Cover-2 or Quarters coverage, but either way the play call had two safeties playing deep zone who should have been in position to make a play on the ball. "Should have," I say. The problems for Houston began before the snap. Swearinger, the safety to Hilton's side of the field, was in position, but Lewis, the other safety, seemed confused, and stepped up away from the middle of the field to confer with Jackson. They were still chatting when the ball was snapped, and Lewis was slow to drop back into his zone. Swearinger, covering the deep right zone, allowed Hilton the middle of the field, then broke on the ball. This is not a terrible play on his part -- his assignment was to prevent a seam or corner route more than anything else -- but it is not a great one, either. Meanwhile, Hilton had already gotten behind Lewis, who struggled to catch up even as Hilton zoomed right through the area that Lewis should have been guarding. Worse, Lewis stumbled just before the ball arrives. The ball was slightly underthrown and Hilton had to slow down, which gave Swearinger a chance to make a play, but Hilton was able to hold onto the ball throughout the collision. Six points, Indy.

Hilton's final catch was a 16-yard gain on third-and-9. This time the Colts lined up with Hilton wide right and Wayne in the slot to that side. The Texans appeared to be running Man-2, with two safeties deep and man coverage across the field. Hilton ran a deep cross, pushing Johnathan Joseph near the sideline, then cutting back to the middle of the field. Joseph's coverage, frankly was excellent, but Luck's throw was even better, fitting into a very narrow window. The catch kept Indianapolis' drive alive as they protected a 12-point lead with more than 12 minutes to go. Three plays later J.J. Watt would return a fumble for a touchdown, but it was too little, too late, and the Colts were able to preserve the win.

So after all that, what have we learned?

[ad placeholder 4]

T.Y. Hilton is a very versatile receiver. In this game alone he demonstrated the speed to get open deep, the quickness to gain yards after the catch, the savvy to beat either man or zone coverage, and sure hands capable of catching the ball even while being dragged to the earth.

Andrew Luck is a really, really good quarterback, and Hilton is lucky to play with him. (OK, this wasn't really anything new we learned, but it's still an important takeaway.)

The Texans have a lot of defensive problems. Go back and look at those nine catches again. You've got guys falling down, blown coverages galore, and a team-wide tendency to forget about Hilton even when he's the only wide receiver on the field.

of defensive problems. Go back and look at those nine catches again. You've got guys falling down, blown coverages galore, and a team-wide tendency to forget about Hilton even when he's the only wide receiver on the field. Those problems, however, do not necessarily include Johnathan Joseph's coverage ability. His charting numbers for this game are going to be ugly, with a couple of big plays allowed. On neither of those plays, though, was he terribly out of position. Unfortunately for Joseph, sometimes a great throw beats great coverage.

When the smoke cleared, Hilton finished with nine catches in nine targets for 223 yards and a touchdown, with seven other first downs, including conversions on third-and-9 (twice) and third-and-15. That all works out to 122 DYAR, one of the best games we've ever measured:

Top 15 Single-Game DYAR for Wide Receivers, 1989-2014 Rank Year Player Team Total

DYAR Rec

DYAR Rush

DYAR Pass Rec Yds TD Runs Yds TD Week Def 1 1989 Flipper Anderson LARM 160 160 0 20 15 336 1 0 0 0 12 NO 2 2000 Jimmy Smith JAC 141 141 0 21 15 291 3 0 0 0 2 BAL 3 1995 Jerry Rice SF 136 124 12 16 14 289 3 1 10 0 16 MIN 4 2006 Chad Johnson CIN 133 137 -4 12 11 260 2 1 0 0 10 SD 5 2000 Terrell Owens SF 131 133 -2 22 20 283 1 1 5 0 16 CHI 6 1989 Henry Ellard LARM 130 130 0 15 12 230 3 0 0 0 2 IND 7 2001 Randy Moss MIN 129 112 16 13 10 171 3 1 18 0 10 NYG 8 2010 Kenny Britt TEN 127 127 0 10 7 225 3 0 0 0 7 PHI 9 2014 T.Y. Hilton IND 121.83* 122 0 9 9 223 1 0 0 0 6 HOU 10 1994 Andre Reed BUF 121.79* 114 8 19 15 191 2 1 4 0 12 GB 11 1995 Kevin Williams DAL 121.67* 104 18 11 9 203 2 3 21 0 17 ARI 12 2011 Calvin Johnson DET 118 118 0 17 11 244 1 0 0 0 17 GB 13 2013 Josh Gordon CLE 117 117 0 17 14 237 1 0 0 0 12 PIT 14 2006 Reggie Wayne IND 116 116 0 11 10 138 3 0 0 0 8 DEN 15 2013 Eric Decker DEN 115 115 0 12 8 174 4 0 0 0 13 KC * Extra decimals listed to show how closely grouped Hilton is with Reed and Williams.

Remember that opponent adjustments are in flux, and will change throughout the year. If the Texans continue to struggle with pass defense (which seems likely), Hilton's DYAR will reflect that, and he'll fall a bit in this table.

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 1. Tom Brady NE 27/37 361 4 0 191 190 1 Brady's ranks in Quick Reads through the first six weeks of the season: next to last, 12th, 17th, last, first, first. Anyone else excited to see New England's week-by-week DVOA graph in Football Outsiders Almanac 2015? Against Buffalo, he did most of his damage throwing to his right, where he went 12-of-15 for 169 yards with two touchdowns, plus two DPIs for 46 more yards. 2. Joe Flacco BAL 21/28 306 5 0 177 177 0 First five drives: 10-of-13 for 196 yards with five touchdowns and three other first downs. Rest of the game: 11-of-15 for 110 yards with only five first downs. 3. Cam Newton CAR 29/45 284 2 1 142 121 21 Third downs, less than 10 yards to go: 9-of-11 for 91 yards with a touchdown and five other conversions. Third downs, 10 or more yards to go: 1-of-4 for 8 yards with an interception. Newton also ran 17 times for 107 yards and a touchdown. 4. Andrew Luck IND 26/44 388 3 1 139 132 8 Not counting throws to T.Y. Hilton, Luck went 17-of-35 for 165 yards with two touchdowns, eight other first downs, one interception, three sacks, one lost fumble, and two DPIs for 41 yards. 5. Philip Rivers SD 22/34 313 3 0 128 121 7 Rivers had a league-high seven gains of 20 or more yards this week. Third downs: 7-of-10 for 104 yards with six first downs, including all three touchdowns, plus one sack. 6. Colin Kaepernick SF 22/36 343 3 0 103 81 22 7. Andy Dalton CIN 33/43 323 2 2 94 82 12 Dalton converted each of his first six third-down throws, gaining 77 yards in the process. He only converted two of his next seven third-down plays, going 3-of-6 for 22 yards with two picks and a sack. 8. Derek Carr OAK 19/34 282 4 1 87 86 2 One key to Carr's big game was avoiding third-and-long situations. Eight of his 11 third-down plays came with 7 or fewer yards to go for a conversion, and on those plays he completed six passes for 184 yards. Each of those completions picked up a first down, including three touchdowns. 9. Aaron Rodgers GB 25/42 264 3 0 78 65 13 Short passes did not work for Rodgers and Green Bay. On passes to receivers within 3 yards of the line of scrimmage, Rodgers went 3-of-7 for 14 yards with just one first down, plus an intentional grounding penalty. 10. Ryan Tannehill MIA 20/31 231 2 2 78 63 15 First half: 8-of-16 for 84 yards with four first downs, two interceptions, and one sack. Second half: 12-of-15 for 147 yards with two touchdowns and six other first downs, plus a 21-yard DPI. 11. Tony Romo DAL 21/32 250 2 0 73 73 0 Romo tore the Seahawks up on short passes. On throws to receivers within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage, he went 15-of-16 for 112 yards with two touchdowns and five other first downs. 12. Jay Cutler CHI 26/38 381 1 0 67 68 -1 Cutler ripped up the Falcons' secondary with deep passes, going 5-of-7 for 191 yards. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 13. Peyton Manning DEN 22/32 237 3 0 67 67 0 On first downs, Manning went 9-of-13 for 119 yards with one touchdown and four other first downs. He threw only one pass to the middle of the field against New York: a 1-yard touchdown to Demaryius Thomas. 14. Brian Hoyer CLE 8/17 217 1 0 54 54 0 Only one player this century had more yards than Hoyer in a game with exactly eight completions: Trent Dilfer for Seattle against St. Louis in 2002. 15. Carson Palmer ARI 28/44 250 2 0 43 53 -10 Inside the red zone, Palmer went 2-of-6 for 18 yards with one touchdown. He was best throwing to the middle of the field, going 8-of-12 for 90 yards with one touchdown and five other first downs. 16. Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU 15/23 212 1 0 35 31 4 Fitzpatrick got off to a bit of a rough start: four incompletions in a row, and then back-to-back sacks. On third and fourth downs, he went 3-of-7 for 32 yards with one sack and only one first down. 17. Blake Bortles JAC 32/45 336 1 1 19 -3 22 Bortles was sacked six times by Tennessee, four times on first-and-10. His tight end was his most dangerous receiver. He went 3-of-4 for 91 yards on passes to Clay Harbor, for one touchdown and two other first downs, plus an 11-yard DPI. 18. Mike Glennon TB 24/44 314 2 1 9 9 0 The good news for Glennon is that all of his completions on third and fourth down picked up first downs. The bad news is that he only had two completions (for 58 yards), with nine incompletions, one interception, and two sacks. By the time Glennon picked up his second first down of the game, the Buccaneers were down by 38 points in the second quarter. Up to that point, he had gone 2-of-10 for 27 yards with an interception and two sacks. 19. Kyle Orton BUF 24/38 299 2 1 7 7 0 On first downs, Orton went 5-of-13 for 41 yards with one touchdown, one other first down with one interception, two sacks, and one lost fumble. 20. Kirk Cousins WAS 24/38 354 2 3 5 5 0 Cousins had five completions that gained 20 or more yards aginst Arizona, but he got a lot of help from his receivers. None of those completions came more than 12 yards downfield, and three of them were thrown to receivers behind the line of scrimmage. 21. Nick Foles PHI 21/34 248 2 2 -7 -5 -2 Foles went 9-of-14 to the short right area of the field, for 88 yards with one touchdown and five other first downs. On the other hand, both of his interceptions were thrown in that direction too. 22. Charlie Whitehurst TEN 18/28 233 0 0 -34 -31 -3 Inside the Jacksonville 40, Whitehurst went 5-of-8 for 60 yards, which sounds good, but 47 of those yards came on two throws, which were his only first downs. He was also sacked twice, fumbling once. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 23. Matt Ryan ATL 19/37 271 1 1 -38 -38 0 Hard to believe, but Ryan did not throw a single pass in the red zone. That's partly because he struggled so badly in the front zone (the area between Chicago's 20- and 40-yard lines), going 1-of-4 for 2 yards with no first downs and a sack. 24. Geno Smith NYJ 24/43 190 2 1 -44 -48 4 The deep pass is simply not a part of the Jet's arsenal these days. Of the 30 players with at least 100 passes this year, only Ryan Tannehill has a worse DVOA on deep passes than Smith. Smith threw three deep passes against Denver, one in the second quarter, one in the third, and one in the fourth. The first two were incomplete; the third resulted in a pick-six. 25. Matthew Stafford DET 19/33 185 1 0 -49 -42 -7 It's a good thing the Lions' defense was so effective against Minnesota (as we shall discuss shortly), because Stafford didn't do much after halftime to put the Vikings away. In the third and fourth quarters, he went 6-of-10 for just 33 yards, with more plays that lost yardage (three sacks and a completion for -2 yards) than first downs (two). 26. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 21/42 228 1 1 -58 -60 2 This one got out of hand quickly. Roethlisberger only had eight plays within 17 points of Cleveland. On those eight plays, he went 3-of-7 for 16 yards, plus a 24-yard DPI. 27. Austin Davis STL 21/40 236 1 1 -61 -61 0 28. Eli Manning NYG 13/23 151 0 0 -70 -63 -7 Manning was killed in long-yardage situations. He had nine plays with more than 10 yards to go for a first down, and only converted two of them. His final numbers: 4-of-6 for 47 yards, plus three sacks. 29. Russell Wilson SEA 14/28 126 0 1 -104 -113 10 Wilson played even worse than his humble totals would indicate. He had 60 yards and two first downs on Seattle's first drive and 66 yards and three first downs the rest of the day. His Success Rate was only 20 percent; every other starter was at 31 percent or higher. In fact, only 43 percent of Wilson's completions were successful plays. Every other quarterback was at 61 percent or more. On first and second downs, he went 8-of-16 for 21 yards (not a typo) with one first down, two completions that lost yards, one interception, and one sack-fumble. 30. Teddy Bridgewater MIN 23/37 188 0 3 -245 -252 7 Bridgewater picked up a first down eight times, or one for each time he was sacked. On Detroit's side of the field, he went 6-of-9 for 43 yards with one first down and two interceptions.

Five most valuable running backs (Total) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Branden Oliver SD 26 101 1 4/5 23 0 43 28 15 Yes, we're doing separate tables now for running backs' overall value, and their rushing value alone. You're welcome. Oliver might have worn down the Raiders defense. He had two 10-yard runs and four first downs, all in the last 21 minutes of the game. His one receiving first down, a 20-yard gain on second-and-9, also came in the fourth quarter. 2. DeMarco Murray DAL 29 115 1 6/6 31 0 40 40 0 On a similar note, two of Murray's three 10-yard gains came in the fourth quarter. None of his receptions picked up first downs; in fact, only one was successful, a 5-yard gain on first-and-10. 3. Antone Smith ATL 2 5 0 4/4 64 1 39 2 37 The human highlight reel strikes again. All six of Smith's plays were successful. His two runs were a 3-yard gain on second-and-5 and a 2-yard gain on third-and-1. His four receptions gained 5 yards on first-and-10; 9 yards on second-and-15; 41 yards (and a touchdown) on third-and-6; and a 9-yard gain on second-and-10. 4. Roy Helu WAS 3 26 0 2/2 40 0 38 13 25 Another small-sample-size star, all three of Helu's runs came on first-and-10, including gains of 8 and 16 yards. His receptions gained 33 yards on second-and-2 and 7 yards on first-and-10. 5. LeSean McCoy PHI 22 149 0 2/2 5 0 36 41 -5 McCoy had six 10-plus-yard runs and two shorter first downs, and was stuffed for no gain or a loss only three times.

Five most valuable running backs (Rushing) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. LeSean McCoy PHI 22 149 0 2/2 5 0 36 41 -5 2. DeMarco Murray DAL 29 115 1 6/6 31 0 40 40 0 3. Justin Forsett BAL 14 111 0 0/0 0 0 34 34 0 Joe Flacco wasn't the only Raven to have a big game against Tampa Bay. Four of Forsett's runs gained 10 yards or more, capped off by a 52-yarder, and he also converted a second-and-1. 4. Matt Forte CHI 17 80 2 10/13 77 0 33 33 0 Forte was stuffed for no gain just once. Meanwhile, he had two 12-yard runs, and touchdowns of 6 and 9 yards. 5. Branden Oliver SD 26 101 1 4/5 23 0 43 28 15

Least valuable running back (Total) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Carlos Hyde SF 11 14 0 1/1 1 0 -34 -27 -7 Hyde had a long gain of 6, three carries that lost yards, and no first downs, despite six carries with 5 yards or less to go.

Least valuable running back (Rushing) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Carlos Hyde SF 11 14 0 1/1 1 0 -34 -27 -7

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR 1. T.Y. Hilton IND 9 9 223 24.8 1 122 2. DeSean Jackson WAS 3 5 115 38.3 1 61 Jackson's receptions included a 64-yard touchdown and a 42-yard gain, and he also drew DPIs of 12 and 16 yards. 3. Larry Fitzgerald ARI 6 6 98 16.3 1 53 Four of Fitzgerald's receptions gained first downs. The others were a 9-yard gain on first-and-10 and a 14-yard gain on second-and-15. 4. Brandon LaFell NE 4 6 97 24.2 2 49 First half: three targets, one catch, 6 yards. Second half: 17-yard gain on third-and-9, 18-yard touchdown on third-and-12, 56-yard touchdown on second-and-12. 5. Andre Holmes OAK 4 8 121 30.2 2 47 Holmes' two longer completions were a 77-yard touchdown and a 30-yard gain, both of which converted third downs. His shorter receptions gained 6 and 8 yards, and they both picked up first downs too.