

Another uptick in the U. of Michigan Confidence survey may spur a further decline in the EUR/USD amid growing speculation for a Fed rate hike in mid-2015.



What’s Expected:











Why Is This Event Important:



Positive data prints coming out of the U.S economy should continue to fuel interest rate expectations and heighten the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback as a growing number of Fed officials scale back their dovish tone for monetary policy.



However, we the survey may disappoint as U.S. households face sticky price pressures paired with the ongoing slack in the real economy, and a dismal print may spur a larger correction in the greenback as it drags on expectations for higher borrowing-costs.



How To Trade This Event Risk



Bullish USD Trade: U. of Michigan Survey Climbs to 89.5 or Higher



Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EURUSD

If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position

Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward

Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bearish USD Trade: Consumer Confidence Falls Short of Market Forecast

Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade

Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

EUR/USD Daily Chart







Failed attempts to close above 1.2450-70 may highlight near-term topping process for EUR/USD especially as the RSI largely retains a bearish momentum.

Interim Resistance: 1.2600 pivot to 1.2610 (61.8% expansion)

Interim Support: 1.2280 (100% expansion) to 1.2290 (38.2% expansion)

Impact that the U. of Michigan Confidence has had on EUR/USD during the last release