A new Pew poll finds that Americans are taking an increasingly dim view of the Republican Party, a piece of news that's certain to bring smiles to the faces of Democrats. But the significance here is a bit more complex than it might at first appear:

The silver lining for the GOP is that, as you can see above, the bulk of the decline consists of self-identified Republicans saying they don't like the Republican Party. This means the new disapprovers mostly seem to be people who aren't actually ready to go vote for a Democratic congressional candidate.

On the other hand, disaffection on the part of natural Republicans does help explain why talk of a Donald Trump third-party run scares the GOP.

And even while the biggest source of decline is among self-identified Republicans, it's also true that the GOP's favorable numbers with independents are falling, as well.