With ballot counting still in progress from the Nov. 8 election a few weeks ago, some other newspaper folks and I had already moved on. Our topic: Who would the Republicans run against Joe Manchin in 2018?

No one in their right mind would challenge Manchin, unless something changes dramatically during the next year, I argued.

My, what a difference a few weeks makes. Now, it seems possible a Republican could win Manchin’s seat in the U.S. Senate without facing Manchin.

Manchin has become a pro at eating his cake and having it, too. In other words, he’s a model West Virginia Democrat.

What people in so many other states, including national Democrat leaders, don’t seem to realize is that many Mountain State voters registered with that party are dismayed at how it has changed during the past decade or so. In essence, they view the Democrat Party that once bragged about standing up for working men and women as having abandoned them.

Manchin has navigated the change well. He remains a staunch Democrat in many ways. But he is one of just a handful of lawmakers of his party who have had the fortitude to stand up to President Barack Obama on energy issues.

That makes him a formidable opponent. In 2010, as Mountain State voters were becoming upset with Obama, Manchin won his Senate seat in a special election by defeating Republican John Raese soundly. He did even better in 2012, garnering more than 60 percent of the vote in a landslide, also against Raese.

Hence my opinion a few weeks ago that the Senate seat is Manchin’s to keep, despite the Republican tidal wave in this year’s election.

But, I added, Manchin would have to be careful not to be seen as an adversary of President-elect Donald Trump. Two numbers illustrate that: In 2012, Manchin won 399,908 votes. This year, Trump received 489,371 from West Virginians.

I hope you didn’t take too long reading that assessment, because it suddenly may be irrelevant.

A Republican may well be our next-elected senator, joining GOP Sen. Shelley Moore Capito in Washington.

It all depends on Trump.

Trump is considering Manchin for a Cabinet post, possibly secretary of energy. That would be an excellent choice, good for West Virginia as well as the nation as a whole.

Democrat leaders are furious about the possibility of Manchin joining the Trump administration. They claim it is a Republican Party move to pad the GOP majority in the Senate.

That could work, and here’s why:

Should Manchin join Trump’s Cabinet, he would have to resign from the Senate. Either Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin or his successor, Jim Justice, would name a temporary replacement. Then, a special election would be held to fill the Senate position.

The problem for Democrats is picking someone who could beat a Republican in 2017. Several names come to mind. Tomblin is one of them.

But Republicans already have a good horse in the stable, so to speak. He is Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, who faced what many thought was a tough re-election fight earlier this year — but wiped the floor with his Democrat opponent. Morrisey got 358,424 votes to Doug Reynolds’ 291,232.

Obviously, Morrisey is well thought of by many voters. That’s because of his counterattack against Obama’s war on coal and due to Morrisey’s initiatives in the battle against drug abuse.

That might not be enough to beat Manchin in 2018. But in 2017, against a Democrat who may not have the name recognition Morrisey does, it could be a winning hand.

It would depend on the Democrats’ candidate — and how effective Manchin would be in swaying votes for him or her.

For now, however, it all depends on what Trump and Manchin are thinking.

Myer can be reached at: mmyer@theintelligencer.net.