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Biggest First-Round Upset: No. 12 South Dakota State over No. 5 Ohio State

Unless you count the No. 8 vs. No. 9 games as upset possibilities, this might be the most popular first-round upset pick this year.

Ohio State's stock faded at an alarming rate over the final few weeks of the campaign. The Buckeyes got swept by Penn State during the regular season and lost to the Nittany Lions for a third time in the Big Ten tournament. With all due respect to the Nittany Lions, you can't go 0-3 against that team and still be considered a strong candidate to reach the Elite Eight. Especially when two of those losses bookended a three-game stretch with a 12-point loss to Michigan and a double-overtime game against Indiana.

This isn't just some anti-Ohio State pick, though. Heaven knows I had premium seating on the Keita Bates-Diop bandwagon back in mid-December.

But my love for South Dakota State's Mike Daum runs much deeper than that. The Dauminator was one of my favorite players in the country when he was a freshman. If the Jackrabbits would ever play a game within a couple hundred miles of Charlotte, I'd be there in a heartbeat. And if and when they win this game, he's going to become America's favorite player.

The real reason this team will succeed where previous iterations failed, though, is David Jenkins Jr. When this freshman shooting guard scores at least 11 points in a game, South Dakota State is 24-1. And considering Tony Carr put up at least 25 points in each of Penn State's wins over the Buckeyes, you have to like the odds of Jenkins finding his rhythm against this defense.

Other first-round upsets: No. 10 Providence over No. 7 Texas A&M

Biggest Second-Round Upset: No. 6 Houston over No. 3 Michigan

As far as seeding is concerned, this isn't a massive upset. But it would feel like one, right?

This is Michigan's seventh trip to the NCAA tournament in the last eight years, which includes three Sweet 16s and a national championship appearance. No one knows how well the momentum from two weekends ago will hold over, but the back-to-back wins over Michigan State and Purdue to claim the Big Ten tournament title opened a lot of eyes to the Wolverines' potential for a deep run.

Then there's Houston, which has some great history from before I was born, but it is making just its second NCAA tournament appearance in the last 25 years and seeking its first win in the tournament since 1984. It won neither the AAC regular-season nor conference-tournament championship, and it suffered atrocious losses to Drexel, Tulane and Memphis this season.

And yet, the Cougars seem to match up favorably here. The only blatant weakness on their KenPom profile is a poor defensive free-throw rate. But putting the Wolverines on the free-throw line isn't a bad strategy, as they shoot just 65.7 percent from the stripe as a team. That might be enough of an edge for Rob Gray and Co. to get the win.

West Region's Final Four Representative: No. 2 North Carolina Tar Heels

Call it a hunch, but this is the region that is going to destroy everyone's bracket. One could easily make the case that the best No. 8, No. 10, No. 11 and No. 12 seeds all reside in the West Regional. It's also not hard to argue that the weakest No. 1 and No. 3 seeds are here, which could produce chaos.

But if you ignore the matchups and just pick your Elite Eight teams by looking at the sub-regions and deciding whom you trust the most, there's little question it should be a rematch of last year's national championship game. North Carolina had more Quadrant 1 wins than any team in the country, and Gonzaga is both blistering hot and under-seeded.

Once there, it's a coin-flip affair. Gonzaga's offensive efficiency should be a huge problem for North Carolina. And in Killian Tillie and Johnathan Williams, the Zags have great options for defending Luke Maye and Cameron Johnson in UNC's small-ball lineup. But in what appears to be the weakest region, it's hard to argue with the likelihood the Tar Heels will get back to a third straight Final Four.

Worth noting: If Gonzaga were to win this game, there are quite a few repeats on its path to the Final Four. The second-round game against South Dakota State is a flashback to last year's No. 1 vs. No. 16 game. The Sweet 16 game against Xavier would be a do-over of last year's Elite Eight matchup.