The Australian Capital Territory election shows it will take more than an ‘it’s time’ factor for the Liberal party to take power

The result in Saturday’s Australian Capital Territory election was largely for business as usual: a Labor government, likely continuing in alliance with the Greens.

After 15 years of Labor government in the territory, there was an expectation that a surge of support to the Liberals could deliver them government but the Liberals ended up falling backwards, leaving the centre-left parties in a stronger position in the assembly.

A 17-member assembly has governed the ACT since 1989 but that assembly has now been expanded to 25 members, with five electorates each sending five members to the assembly.

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At the time of writing, Labor has won 12 seats in the 25-seat assembly, with 10 Liberals and two Greens. Labor and Liberal each won two seats in each electorate, with the final seat up for grabs. Labor has gained third seats in the northern electorates of Ginninderra (Belconnen) and Yerrabi (Gungahlin), while the Greens won seats in Kurrajong (central Canberra) and Murrumbidgee (Woden).

One seat remains in play, in the Tuggeranong-based electorate of Brindabella. While the Liberal party looked likely to win the seat early on election night, a drop in the Liberal vote has left them vulnerable to losing the seat to either Labor or the Sex party.

If Labor wins the fifth Brindabella seat, it will give them a majority for the second time in ACT history. If the Sex party win, it will be only their second election win after their victory in the last Victorian upper-house election.

There was no public polling about the ACT election but a strong conventional wisdom had formed about the election: that the tired 15-year-old Labor government was vulnerable to a Liberal surge. The Liberals fiercely attacked the Labor-Greens government for its plans to build light rail through parts of Canberra and there was speculation about the Liberal party sweeping into power.

This conventional wisdom was wrong. There was a swing of 3.3% against the Liberals, while the vote for Labor and the Greens remained stable. In retrospect, the 2012 result was a high water mark for the Liberal party. The Liberals won eight seats, only one seat short of a majority. It was the only time when the Liberal party had won eight seats – the party had only managed seven when it was in government in the late 1990s.

The total vote for Labor and the Greens didn’t change much but this masks regional swings. Labor’s vote dropped in four of five electorates, by about 1% in the southern electorates of Brindabella and Murrumbidgee, and by smaller amounts in Ginninderra and Kurrajong. This was balanced out by a large 2.8% swing in Yerrabi. This electorate will be the main beneficiary of the first stage of the light rail and it appears that the focus on the light rail helped Labor shore up their third seat in this northern electorate.

The Greens vote became more concentrated, with a 0.7% swing in their strongest seat of Kurrajong and a 0.6% drop in the Greens vote in outer-suburban Brindabella.

This election is a reminder that Canberra as a city leans to the left of politics and it will take more than an “it’s time” factor for the Liberal party to take power. The city is more socially progressive than most of Australia, without rural hinterland areas that favour conservative parties, and with a large public servant population that favours centre-left parties.

Labor and the Greens have a strong relationship in the ACT, due to the electoral system and demographic factors that make it more politically feasible for the parties to have a close relationship. Eight years of formal alliance has strengthened these ties and it will be difficult for the Liberals to bust up this partnership.

The Liberals are a long way from forming a majority in their own right. If they are to govern again, it’s likely to be with the support of independents or other minor parties which are currently absent from the assembly. The Liberals governed the ACT from 1995 to 2001 with the aid of a more diverse crossbench. The best prospect for a future Liberal government is if parts of the Labor-Greens base, looking for a change after close to two decades of centre-left government, vote for centrist independents and minor parties who could choose to ally with the Liberal party.

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We saw a large range of minor parties try their hand at this election but most fell far short, with only the Sex party having an outside chance of winning a seat. The five-member electorates will make it very difficult for outsiders to break into the assembly and thus reduce the Liberal party’s options.

While not much has changed in the political make-up of the assembly, the increased numbers will likely change the way ACT politics operates. There’ll be more room for backbench MPs to challenge their party’s leadership, with both major parties having more MPs to manage, and not everyone expecting a frontbench role.

If Labor doesn’t win a majority, you’d expect to see a continuation of the current Labor-Greens government. If Labor does reach a majority, you wouldn’t expect to see the current alliance continue. The Greens will have room to differentiate themselves from their long-time ally but you wouldn’t expect any burning of the bridges between Labor and the Greens – they will likely need each other again in four years.