Morgan Stanley has firmly joined the “Where’s the beef?” crowd when it comes to America’s supposed factory renaissance.

In a 125-page “blue paper,” the bank concludes there’s “little real evidence” of a revival. Some domestic producers will certainly benefit from the dual force of breakthroughs in domestic energy production and rising costs in China. But not so fast, says the bank. “Outside of the chemicals sector, low natural gas prices will likely have limited ramifications on capacity decisions.”

Here’s why: In the larger scheme of things, labor and energy make up a relatively small slice of the costs for most U.S. manufacturers. Much more important is raw material and component purchases. Transportation costs are big and the bank acknowledges more U.S. companies are increasingly looking for ways to shorten their supply lines. But that could easily mean moving production from China to Mexico — or vice versa, if enough end customers for a given product are in China.