Kirk Spitzer

USA TODAY

NEMURO, Japan — Hiroshi Tokuno vividly remembers the day Russian soldiers herded his family and friends aboard cargo ships and sailed away from their homes on tiny Shikotan Island in far northern Japan.

The Russians had occupied Shikotan and three neighboring islands in the days after Japan surrendered in World War II. Within three years, the Russians expelled all 17,000 residents and claimed the islands as their own — a move Japan has challenged without success for more than seven decades.

“We expected to be back soon. I never thought that 71 years later we’d still be waiting,” said Tokuno, 82, a retired commercial fishermen.

Like many former residents, Tokuno and his family eventually settled in this remote fishing village, close to the occupied islands. Now, Tokuno, other former residents and their descendants have new hope that they might finally return to their family homes.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is scheduled to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in December to discuss a deal for at least a partial return of the four islands, called the Northern Territories in Japan and the southern Kurils in Russia.

In exchange, Japan would invest billions of dollars in developing Russia’s resource-rich Far East.

The deal could help Japan shore up energy supplies and ease relations with its northern neighbor. But it could also bring Japan in conflict with the United States, which has sought to punish Russia for its annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine.

“The move entails some considerable risks for Abe, since tensions between the West and Russia are so high at present,” said James D.J. Brown, associate professor of international affairs at Temple University’s Tokyo campus, who has studied the Northern Territories issue.

“In the longer term, however, closer relations between Japan and Russia could be valuable to the United States, since it could help draw Russia away from its increasingly close strategic partnership with China,” Brown said.

The issue has long plagued relations between the two Pacific powers.

Russia declared war on Japan in the waning days of World War II and quickly occupied Shikotan and its three neighbors — Etorofu, Kunashiri and Habomai. The closest of those islands is about 2 miles from Hokkaido, Japan’s northernmost main island. On clear days it can be seen from Japanese shores.

Although diplomatic relations were restored in 1956, the dispute has prevented the two countries from signing a peace treaty formally ending the war and has frustrated closer economic ties.

A joint declaration in 1965 called for the return of the two smallest islands — Shikotan and Habomai — to Japanese sovereignty in the event a peace treaty is signed. But Japanese insistence on the return of all four islands has stymied subsequent negotiations.

The popularity of Abe and Putin in their home countries plus changing economic conditions could give the two leaders wiggle room needed to reach a compromise.

In a May meeting with Putin, Abe proposed an eight-point plan for economic cooperation between the two countries that could include billions of dollars in energy and infrastructure projects in Russia’s underdeveloped Far East.

The Abe administration has signaled a willingness to accept the return of the two small islands in exchange for a peace treaty and Russian willingness to negotiate later for the two larger islands. Joint administration of some or all of the islands also has been floated by Abe supporters.

Abe has a personal stake in the issue: His father, Shintaro Abe, failed to get the islands returned when he was Japan’s foreign minister in the 1980s.

Putin, who has seen Russia’s economy suffer from falling oil prices and Western sanctions, has signaled a willingness to give up the two small islands under terms of the 1965 declaration.

Whether that would be enough to reach a deal is unclear. About 20,000 Russians now live on the disputed islands. Giving up territory — no matter how small — could be problematic, given the high diplomatic and economic price Russia has paid for seizing Crimea.

What’s more, the return of just Shikotan and Habomai — just 7% of the land area of all four islands — would do little to satisfy former residents of the two bigger islands and their descendants.

“The ideal is to have all four islands back. The question is the steps we take to get there,” said Shoichi Hamaya, 53, who represents an association of former Northern Territory residents.

Only about 6,000 former residents are still alive, and many fear they will never see their homes again, Tokuno said.

Seven decades ago, Tokuno and his family were first taken Russia’s Sakhalin Island, then to Hokkaido. Eventually they settled in Nemuro, a remote and wind-driven fishing village.

Japan discourages citizens from visiting the disputed islands. But Tokuno has made about 20 brief visits to Shikotan since the 1990s when a program was adopted allowing former residents and selected others to make supervised trips without visas or passports, which would imply recognition of Russian sovereignty.

“That’s all we want — just to go home." Tokuno said. "On the day Shikotan is returned to us, I’ll be there.”