Breaking Down Ryan Dunbar’s Latest Mock for the 2019 NFL Draft

Welcome back to our new series, Attack the Mock (believe, bruv!) where we explore and deconstruct a mock for the 2019 NFL Draft, and talk to the analyst about the process and decisions that went into creating the mock draft.

Our first deep dive was with Ray Mencio over at NFL Rough Draft. This time we’ve got Ryan Dunbar, a draft writer over at Full Press Coverage, talking about his mock draft, which is featured in our 2019 NFL Mock Draft Database (bookmark it for your brain) and which I am very enthusiastic about.

I’d never heard of Ryan before, but his latest mock draft definitely caught my attention and struck me as one I should share.

Check it out. Get inspired. Then make your own mock draft using the MockOut app, the only place you can easily create a mock draft and enter it into contests against other mock drafts.

On to the mock!

Micky: You’re about to sit down and make a new mock… how do you start?

Ryan: I definitely have prospect pairings in my mind, but I really want to get the order down before I do too much. Using my big board and team needs I go down the order and since it’s early in the year, I throw darts on lesser known prospects to get the name out.

Ah, dart throwing… the time-tested tradition of every draft analyst. He does bring up a very good point, that mocking now, when we all acknowledge that it will change dramatically, is an entirely different exercise from mocking in March or April. Different game with different rules and different reasoning.

So let’s look at some of these dart throws.







1. Jonah Williams, OT Alabama

This pick immediately grabbed my attention. There are three options for the top pick right now: Bosa, Oliver, or QB. In fact, of the 45 mock drafts in the database from May on, only 4 of them have an alternative selection at 1 overall (all Jonah). I asked him about it:

Micky: Right off the bat, you have Jonah going to the Cards. Most people have a D-lineman, either Bosa or Oliver, as their top pick. So why Jonah? Do you see it as a huge team need? Is he on the same level as Bosa and Oliver?

Ryan: Jonah to the Cards is completely based off need. He’s a top-10 prospect for sure at this stage, but top-5 is a stretch. The Cardinals O-line is dreadful, and they need to protect Josh Rosen if they want him to succeed. Picking Jonah would show strong commitment to that sentiment.

It definitely would. I also agree that the pick is a strong possibility, but my reasoning has a lot more to do with how rare a top-5 talent at OT is, and how hard it is to find decent O-linemen through the draft nowadays.

Moving on, but not to far, we get to my favorite pick of the whole mock draft.







4. Brian Burns, DE Florida State

Micky: The next pick I want to talk about is Burns to the Lions. Why are you the first person to move Burns into the top-5—what have you seen in his game this season to justify mocking him so high?

Ryan: Burns is a real good player and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him to go top-7 in this draft if he declares. He’s long and a very good athlete. Burst and flexibility pop off with him and he breaks out some good pass rush moves. And he’s only 20 so he still has room to grow and his frame will continue to fill out.

Brian Burns has been a monster this season, and I can see him as this year’s Harold Landry (the supreme pass rush talent) to Clelin Ferrell’s Bradley Chubb (higher floor, less dynamic as a speed rusher) if I had to compare it to last year’s class. That’s not to say I think Burns lasts until the second round… more that, like Landry, I think he brings very rare pass rush skills to the position, but might struggle a bit taking on big blockers or holding his ground in the run game. Would I take Burns #4 overall if I were the Lions? I would very strongly consider it. They need a CB and DT as well, but pass rushers come with that positional value bonus, and so I don’t hate the pick. I think… I love it. I haven’t seen him go this high anywhere else, and I think it might be legit.

Picks 5-13 were all pretty consensus, though Metcalf as WR1 is still pretty rare outside of TDN. But there’s a different WR I want to talk about- someone everybody was talking about for a week.







14. Hakeem Butler, WR Iowa State

Micky: I think we all just learned who this guy is last week, and since it’s a little slow moving at this stage in the season, he hasn’t moved into the first round of too many mocks yet. Are you worried this one-game explosion was a fluke? That you’ll be leaving him out of your next mock? Or have you seen something from him to give you confidence that he will end up as a first round WR?

Ryan: There is a very real possibility Butler won’t be in my next mock. Butler’s game against OU was phenomenal and he showed so many plus traits. Size, contested catch ability, and great YAC. His tape last year showed many of these same qualities as well. Athleticism and nuance will be huge for his draft stock, but he’s going to be a fun evaluation.

Recency bias is a trap we all (at least I do) get sucked into, so it’s important for me to check out other mocks and see how other draft analysts feel about the rest of a player’s tape. Do many of them think this was a one-game outlier, and that we shouldn’t expect anything like it again? Or were the clues always there that this was a player about to break out, and now it’s just happening? We still have a lot of time this season to see how Butler turns out, but from what I’ve seen and heard, that game was probably more of an exception than a sign of things to come or pro potential. Especially in such a strong WR class, I’ll leave him out of my next mock draft. At least, for now…

Going down the mock, there’s one name that has stood out to me, and even had me wondering, “Did he just forget this guy?” but then he showed up way down at pick 28, totally blowing my mind that he was ranked so low.







28. Devin White, ILB LSU

Micky: Devin White all the way down at pick 28. Why so low? Have you not been impressed with this year’s tape? Think he has limitations either in athleticism or processing? How does he almost fall out of the first round for you?

Ryan: Devin White, Rashan Gary, and even Mack Wilson will go higher than I have them mocked. Wilson will probably end up as a top-15 player on my board and will be picked in that area. I actually really like Devin White and I think he’ll also go higher. I’ve been impressed with his development so far this season and he’s very athletic. I just had trouble slotting those two linebackers to get picked sooner than where I had them. Gary is a different story. He’s an elite athlete, but I don’t know where he’s going to play, and I have questions about his processing and overall technique as a player.

One of the most difficult (and for me, fun and interesting) aspects of creating a mock draft is when you have a high opinion of a player, believe he is a top-15 talent, but just can’t find a home for him with any of the top-15 teams. Of course, this is where trades come into play. But now, so early in the offseason, predicting trades is folly. So you just have to try and find an elegant solution. I would have personally had White picked by a team without a glaring need or even a good fit, rather than have him fall to pick 28. But that’s just me. I agree with him that Gary should go higher than he currently has him, but actually think having Mack there in the low-mid-20’s is a good spot.

Let’s wrap this thing up.

Micky: Which picks are you happiest with, at this point? They just feel right. Which picks do you think will probably be changing in your next mock?

Ryan: In terms of prospect fit, my favorites are Jonah Williams to Arizona, Deionte Thompson to Oakland, and Justin Herbert and Dwayne Haskins to New England and the Chargers respectively. Selfishly, I like D.K. Metcalf to Cleveland. Metcalf to Cleveland makes me happy because I’m an Oklahoma fan who loves Baker Mayfield, and to give him a talented receiver like Metcalf would make me all kinds of giddy.

That’s one of the unsung joys of making a mock draft; not only predicting what you think what will happen, but getting ridiculously excited fantasizing about what could happen. I felt those same butterflies when I saw that he mocked Oliver to the Hawks (and ignored that sick feeling in my gut that was caused by the Hawks picking #3 overall…) and look for it every time I create a mock draft. Glad to hear Dunbar does it the same way.

Thanks, Ryan, for taking the time to defend your mock. Check him out on Twitter, keep an eye out for his next mock, which you know will be there on our mock draft database (updated every day) and stay tuned for more installments of Attack the Mock.