Bengals wait as extra pick hangs in the balance

As the Bengals analyze this year's draft, they hope to find the next Geno Atkins or Marvin Jones or George Iloka in the early third day of the draft. Atkins, a fourth-round pick in 2010, and Jones, Iloka, fifth-round picks in 2012, were both selected in a late round in which the Bengals had extra picks.

As of right now, an opaque NFL formula will decide if the Bengals even are awarded the chance to replay history.

At the end of March every year compensatory picks are awarded to teams which lost more than they gained in the previous year's unrestricted free agent process. The NFL created a formula to award these picks based predominantly on average salary per year of those free agents lost and gained, as well as a collection of smaller contributors including snap percentage.

Players who were cut by their former teams prior to hitting free agency and signed by new teams do not count toward the compensatory equation.

In the case of the Bengals last year, when they realized they wouldn't be able to re-sign defensive end Michael Johnson and tackle Anthony Collins, the team consciously opted to stay away from unrestricted free agents because the large contracts those two signed with Tampa Bay would warrant quality compensatory picks.

Johnson will land the Bengals an extra third-round pick, the top round available. After that, calculations get interesting.

A team can only receive as many compensatory picks as were net gained the previous year. In this example, the Bengals lost those two UFAs; if they had signed two UFAs — even of lesser value — they wouldn't receive compensatory picks. The NFL formula ranks all the qualifying UFAs from the previous year and no more than the top 32 count in the net gain/loss formula.

Enter Marshall Newhouse.

The Bengals signed the offensive lineman as a UFA from Green Bay last year for a one-year deal at just $805K. That number traditionally has not qualified for the top 32, so the thought was it would keep from negating Collins. That's extra important with most believing Collins will land a fourth-round pick, possibly a fifth.

Only days after the signing, the Bengals saw the outlook change slightly in a way that affected them as the team saw Mike Pollak end up counting against them, qualifying with a $780K contract.

Newhouse's contract came with a $25K workout bonus, bringing the total down to the same $780K, if that bonus number doesn't count against the total. Then consider the other aspect of the equation is percentage of snaps played. In 2013, Pollak played 32.4 percent of snaps. Last year, Newhouse played in 34.2 percent.

All of this information places Newhouse square on the bubble to count in this year's compensatory draft selection. Nick Korte, who specializes in compensatory picks for OverTheCap.com, projected Newhouse as the final UFA to qualify and count against the Bengals but admits the bubble can fluctuate depending on many details the NFL formula will weigh.

The process is complicated and narrowing down exactly where the formula will drop players is impossible to calculate until all the final numbers churn out.

Many teams base their offseason strategy around avoiding true UFAs in order to rack up compensatory picks. None have been more successful than Baltimore who has the most extra picks (41) since the format was introduced in 1994 and could have as many as four more this season.

Last year the Bengals were awarded two compensatory picks with an extra selection in the sixth (212 overall, LB Marquis Flowers) and seventh round (252, CB Lavelle Westbrooks). In 2013 they received two compensatory picks in the seventh round, resulting in offensive linemen Reid Fragel and T.J. Johnson.

The Bengals are optimistic their plan for this year will work out and Newhouse won't count. The end result could be the next Atkins, Jones or Iloka. They will have to wait until March to find out.