Triple small set drafting - it can be degenerate (I'm looking at you triple Eventide decks with 6 Nightsky Mimics), it can be fun (triple Dragon's Maze, to me, was quite fun), or just average (Triple Born of the Gods would fit here in my opinion). Let's dive in and see what we have in store for us!

The Journey Begins:

The first item to look at is the set breakdown and what to expect in a draft pod:

Mythic Rare Rare Uncommon Common 10 35 60 60

On average you should expect to see a given mythic 30% of the time, a given rare 60% of the time, 1.2 copies of an uncommon and 4 of a common. This does not include foils, which are generally negligible for consideration (appearing around 2% of the time).

Removal:

As with my triple BNG article I will focus on removal that is good for the environment (a Demystify is better than a Shatter for instance). To start, here is the decent or better common removal:

The reason I have Cast into Darkness pictured and not Pin to the Earth is that with -2/0 and can't block it effectively removes a 2 or less power creature. When I analyze the effectiveness later I will note the number of creatures Cast into Darkness removes. We have 1 more removal spell at common than we did in triple BNG and in place of a decent blue piece we have a decent green piece. Akroan Mastiff is the only unconditional removal and even calling it unconditional is misleading - you have to leave 1 white open and the opposing creature should not be a good inspired creature. Next up we have uncommon removal:

At 6 mana, Spiteful Blow is expensive but the only truly unconditional common or uncommon removal in the set. Consign to Dust is the only common/uncommon removal to have even the potential for a 2-for-1 and if the game goes longer it could be better. Deserter's Quarters is quite expensive but it is the most versatile of the removal spells as it can hold some mid-game and switch to a bomb later on in the game.

How effective are the removal spells? Here's a breakdown of the important stats:

Dies to 1 Damage: Dies to 2 Damage: Dies to 3 Damage: All Creatures: 88 20 (22.7%) 35 (39.8%) 54 (61.4%) Un/common Creatures: 65 16 (24.6%) 29 (44.6%) 44 (67.7%)

Power 2 or less: Power 4 or more: All Creatures: 88 48 (54.5%) 28 (31.8%) Un/common Creatures: 65 41 (46.6%) 16 (18.1%)

Are Enchantments: All Creatures: 88 34 (38.6%) Un/common Creatures: 65 23 (35.4%)

Notes about the data: All creatures use their base stats. Heroes' Bane is counted as a 4/4. Squelching Leeches is counted as a 2/2. All of the gods are included in each relevant calculation. I didn't include the token makers (one is rare, the other 2 produce 2 tokens each for a high cost, but trading removal for them is 1 card for half a card).

So in this format, Reprisal isn't that good, only having about 1 target in 5 naturally. Being an instant though works very strongly in its favor as there are a number of combat tricks and Reprisal could be a solid blowout. There is also only a few bestow creatures and none at common, so this format will be less voltron style than triple BNG. Dealing with two or less toughness creatures will be slightly more common than dealing with enchantment creatures. Only two of the removal have the potential to deal 1 damage even though a fair bit less creatures die at that level in comparison to triple BNG. For estimations, I would assume that Riddle of Lightning will deal be able to deal 2.5-3.5 on average but with a very wide range of options.

Bombs at Common and Uncommon:

I'm looking at first pick or game altering cards, ignoring removal. Uncommons first:

The uncommons are not nearly as powerful as the BNG ones. Hour of Need "breaks" the no removal in this section but it is much more than removal. I will gladly first pick it whenever I can. The middle 3 I put on here are board dependent on whether or not they are bombs. Without enough creatures or against certain decks Swarmborn Giant is essentially unplayable. I included Gold-Forged Sentinel because of the low amount of fliers in the set (14 fliers, 10 at common/uncommon one of which means being Izzet). Common bombs up next:

The commons are fairly flat in power, really only Aerial Formation stands out, whereas Ravenous Leucrocota is just going to be very effective at blocking and eventually attacking. Calling the latter a "bomb" is stretching it.

The relatively limited number of standout common and uncommons will likely lead to a format much more bomb centric. The dearth of quality removal will further affect the format to be bomb centric.

Potential Trap Cards and Cards Likely to be Misplayed:

Oppressive Rays - This card is removal of a sort. The reason it wasn't included above is that it will regularly fall short of what you need it to be. If the game has stalled out it comes out as a minor inconvenience. It is being labeled as a trap card as it fits in certain decks better than others and that should be noted. It works better in a racing early situation than a late game controlling one. The most effective use for it would likely be on a creature with a decent activated ability, especially one of the mana dorks from the set. Tethmos High Priest - This card is clearly a trap. There is a lot of potential but not in triple JOU. There are not any creatures so powerful at 1 or 2 that this should be a focus. Also consider that by the time you are bringing something back there is a strong chance it is already outclassed. The card itself is playable, but building a deck around the heroic trigger would either be bad or require the stars to align. Play it as a nice, unplanned bonus. Hour of Need - This is a very strong card that also happens to be quite the skill tester. There are going to be games where hitting your opponents creatures will be right. There will be games where changing 3 of your own creatures is right. It can even be used as a rather nasty combat trick. Getting the most mileage out of this card is going to be tricky and it seems reasonable that it will be misplayed. It is rare (especially for an uncommon!) to be removal, combat trick, pseudo pump, stalemate breaker, and finisher wrapped into one. Hypnotic Siren - The place where people will trip up here is thinking that you should never play this as a creature. The issue with that thinking is that 7 mana is quite the hurdle. For something to be playable at 7 it has to do a lot, which of course this does. But on average hitting 7 mana is a turn 8-11 event, which is also often when the game is over. There are going to be times where the 1/1 flier is more important than hoping to hit 2 lands in a row. Riptide Chimera - There are going to be times when this is amazing. Similarly (and likely much more commonly) there are going to be times when this is either dead or a blowout. I would guess you would need at least 8 other enchantments to consider this at the low end, and of those 8, 6 or 7 would need to cost less than 3. Nightmarish End - This effect has been done before and the same that applied then does now. Do not rely on this to kill big bombs as that would necessitate holding back quite a bit. This is most effective early to mid-game and should be played as such. If you are running it, it is worth considering holding onto extra lands if you do not have much in the way on mana sinks. Riddle of Lightning - Using this properly is going to require a high comfort level with what is in your deck and what has already been drawn. Do not discount the fact that it is very possible to Scry into 3 lands. Spite of Mogis - If you consider the average number of spells in a limited deck to be 7, this can do an amazing 6 damage for 1 mana. But if you consider that by turn 10, in an average deck, it would average being a shock with scry at sorcery speed, and only if you have played all of your spells by then. It will be serviceable but do not expect it to be amazing on each play. Kruphix's Insight - This is very deck dependent. There are no straight reanimation spells in JOU so the value would need to be gained hitting at least 2 enchantments (hitting 1 is really a loss - the card is revealed, you mill 5, and you spent 3 mana for a revealed draw 1). That means statistically you need at least 14 enchantments in your deck. If you can get 18-20 enchantments in your deck, this becomes worthwhile. Any less than that and it is a questionable inclusion.

Archetypes and Synergies:

There are two decks I will cover here as I think they both have some strong promise. The first is R/W.....turtle! There are 4 cards (3 of which are common) which I think have a chance to form a reasonable base for a deck:

Now before the pitchforks come out for including 2 life gain cards as a basis for an archetype let me explain. The 2 white cards just offer the ability to stall the game until the 2 red cards can take over. Bladetusk Boar offers the best evasive clock in the set (11 creatures (3 are rare)can block and kill it, there are 14 fliers). If you can get multiples of the boar and of Font of Ire your deck would have a lot of reach. With enough copies of those 2 (2-3 each probably) the rest of the deck can be very defensive and it will make a good turtle deck with reach to close out games.

The other deck I wanted to highlight is a very typical deck that will very likely be very strong in triple JOU: U/W fliers. The only fliers not white or blue are rares or the one uncommon artifact. Green only has 2 creatures with reach, one a 1/3 token and the other needs to be monstrous first. The curve for the deck is lacking two drops but there are other cards that can take the place of those. If you end up in U/W fliers I would recommend taking Gold-Forged Sentinel above anything else as that creature bricks a lot of the strategy. The 1/1 for U that is unblockable, Triton Shorestalker would also fit well in the deck. A few of the creatures can get rather large toughness which helps avoid a fair bit of removal as well.

Conclusion:

The format seems like it will be bomb centric with a lot of stalling out. The power level over all is much flatter than BNG was, thus the options are more about what you open than trying to force something. Some creatures will be much more powerful than normal just based on their ability to punch through, such as Swarmborn Giant or Gluttonous Cyclops.

As always, feel free to leave comments and have a discussion!

xger

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