As it stands, the best-actor race of this awards season is between Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix. In one corner, a one-time nominee offering up his most vulnerable, neuroses-ridden performance to date in Noah Baumbach’s tremulous, sentimental Marriage Story. In the other corner, a three-time nominee whose vicious turn in Joker is enough to give the comic book movie a fighting chance in the awards space. While there are other strong contenders—Robert De Niro in The Irishman, Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory—Driver vs. Phoenix has been the leading topic among prognosticators. On Monday, Driver got a slight bump in the race, as did his Marriage Story costar Scarlett Johansson; the duo will be honored with a joint performers-of-the-year award from the Santa Barbara International Film Festival on January 17, 2020.

“Scarlett and Adam have had such admirable arcs to their careers—making smart choices between independent films and big Hollywood franchises,” says SBIFF executive director Roger Durling in a statement, per Variety. “They both are such lyrical performers, imbuing their acting with keen sensitivity and intellect. Together in Baumbach’s Marriage Story they regaled us with their best work to date.”

The film festival is one of many key events that dot the path to the Oscars, which will take place next year on February 9. It will be sandwiched between events like the New York Film Critics Circle Awards gala (on January 7) and the Screen Actors Guild Awards (January 19), giving Driver and Johansson an extra opportunity to cull votes from Academy members who will be flitting back and forth between all the festivals and galas.

Speaking of Johansson, her biggest competition is Renée Zellweger, whose performance as Judy Garland in Judy has made her the instant front-runner in the best-actress race. Zellweger will also be in the spotlight at SBIFF, having been announced as the honoree for the American Riviera Award. Landing an SBIFF honor isn’t a guarantee of being an Oscar winner, but it is a bellwether for nomination status. While she hasn’t edged out Zellweger just yet, Johansson is extremely likely to land a nomination thanks to her warm Marriage Story performance.

Driver and Phoenix are also considered pretty safe bets at this stage in the race, though Joker’s overall potential is still up for debate. It’s still unclear which performance will ultimately win voters over. Both Phoenix and Driver are beloved actors’ actors in good standing with the Academy, offering up vastly different performances. Marriage Story is the more traditional Oscar bait, not least because of its reputation as the modern-day Kramer vs. Kramer (which won five Oscars). Joker is more controversial, but Phoenix is the thread pulling the comic book film through the gilded needle. He also got a recent bump with oddsmakers a few days ago when it was announced that he was going to be honored with the chairman’s award at the Palm Springs International Film Festival next year on January 2. While it’s, again, not a sure sign that he’ll win an Oscar, it’s yet another key award on the path to Hollywood’s biggest night. Now that Driver’s got a big award of his own on the schedule, he’s able to parry that move.

More Great Stories From Vanity Fair

— Our cover story: John Legend and Chrissy Teigen on love and resistance in the age of Trump

— Plus: Watch the first couple we deserve give each other a lie detector test

— RuPaul announces Drag Race spin-off featuring only celebrity contestants

— Game of Thrones’ Night King first looked completely different—for a reason

— Get your first look at the new Star Wars assassin from The Mandalorian

— The celebrity-NBA Twitter account you don’t want to miss

— From the archive: The man Hollywood trusted with its secrets

Looking for more? Sign up for our daily Hollywood newsletter and never miss a story.