By Sean McElwee (@SeanMcElwee) and John Ray (@johnlray)

Before Democrats began impeachment proceedings last week, the conventional wisdom among pundits was that it would harm the re-election prospects of swing seat Democrats who won elections in districts Trump won. Our latest polling suggests the conventional wisdom is wrong. Last week, using polling from before the Ukraine scandal, we made the case that the evidence of the impact of an impeachment inquiry in either direction was murky. Now, we have evidence suggesting that voters are supportive of an impeachment inquiry given the facts of Ukraine and that opposing an inquiry is unlikely to bolster a Democratic candidate’s re-election prospects. Notably, we present evidence that a majority of voters now support an impeachment inquiry, even when given counter-arguments against an inquiry. Overall, support for an impeachment inquiry has risen about 7 points since the end of August.

On behalf of Data for Progress, YouGov Blue fielded a national survey from 9/27/19-9/30/19 on a representative sample of 1,009 US voters. The sample was weighted to be representative of the population of US voters by age, race/ethnicity, sex, education, US Census region, and 2016 Presidential vote choice. On that survey, YouGov Blue included items pertaining to a possible impeachment inquiry against Donald Trump. Here, we report on those findings. Democrats are fully onboard with impeachment. Independents are statistically split. Perhaps surprisingly, just over one in ten Republicans supports the impeachment inquiry.

Impeachment topline

The survey included several items relevant to the question of impeachment. First, we included a direct ask: We caught voters up on the current events that had led to the impeachment inquiry, and then asked voters if they supported the inquiry. The item read:

“New evidence, including a whistleblower complaint and the transcript of a phone call between US President Donald Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, suggest that Trump withheld U.S. military aid in order to pressure Ukraine to investigate the family of his political opponent, Joe Biden.

“Some say this new evidence constitutes grounds for opening an impeachment inquiry.

“Others say such an inquiry would be nothing more than another political witch hunt, and that President Trump was encouraging international anti-corruption efforts as his predecessors have done.

“Do you [support or oppose] opening an impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump?”

By a 51-41 margin, voters support an impeachment inquiry. Notably, in a shift from our August survey, strong support is higher than strong opposition.