'Based on Jason Kenney's record, there will be others willing to do some dirty work on his behalf.'

According to the Chinese calendar, 2019 will be the Year of the Pig.

In Alberta, New Democrats are hoping it will be the Year of the Underdog.

That’s because 2019 will be the Year of the Election.

The provincial election — to be held sometime between March 1 and May 31 — promises to be much more than just a contest between the governing New Democrats and the opposition United Conservative Party.

This could very well be a battle that changes the political culture of the province.

It is a culture in which one party tends to dominate the legislature for decades at a time.

In 1935, the Social Credit won a majority government and clung to power for 36 years until being replaced by the Progressive Conservatives, who won 12 consecutive elections to govern Alberta for almost 44 years — a Canadian record.

In other provinces, politics is a pendulum swinging from one side of the political spectrum to the other. In Alberta, the arm tends to get stuck, usually on the right.

In 2015, the arm swung to the NDP for the first time, giving the conservatives whiplash, and giving New Democrats hope that maybe they were starting a new decades-long political dynasty.

If only…

If only the price of oil hadn’t collapsed in 2015, sending Alberta into a recession.

If only Jason Kenney hadn’t united conservatives under the aptly named United Conservative Party.

If only Premier Rachel Notley had been able to shepherd the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project to pump more of Alberta’s landlocked oil onto the world market and pump more royalty revenue into the government treasury.

New Democrats continue to live in hope they can pull the 2019 election out of the fire. The provincial economy is improving, and Alberta may well lead the country in growth this year.

Notley herself is relatively popular. But only relative to her party, that is.

The NDP is ahead in its home ground of Edmonton, but is lagging behind in Calgary and is so far behind in rural Alberta, you’d need a bloodhound to find it.

Members of the UCP, on the other hand, are so sure of victory, it’s a wonder they haven’t already set a date for Kenney’s coronation.

For them, the election will right a wrong committed by voters in 2015 — and set the stage for another long-running conservative government in Alberta.

Kenney is trying to keep a lid on his party’s confidence, to prevent it from boiling over into the old-style Progressive Conservative arrogance.

In a year-end interview with CBC, he also said he wanted a “respectful, policy-based debate in the upcoming Alberta election.”

And no doubt, based on Kenney’s record, that is exactly what he intends to do: put forward a respectful debate publicly.

But also based on his record, there will be others willing to do some dirty work on his behalf.

In the Progressive Conservative leadership race of 2016-17, Kenney’s opponents found themselves under vicious attack from right-wing trolls and groups. One leadership candidate, MLA Sandra Jansen, was so fed up, she quit the race and eventually crossed the floor to the NDP.

In the 2017 UCP leadership race, candidate Brian Jean, former leader of the Wildrose party, also found himself under attack from right-wing groups, as well as from another candidate in the race, Jeff Callaway, who joined the contest at the last minute and quit before it was over.

The suspicious dynamics of that race are now under investigation by Alberta’s election commissioner after several UCP members complained that Callaway’s anti-Jean candidacy was little more than a proxy for Kenney, and possibly funded by Kenney supporters.

Callaway has denied the allegation, but the whiff of scandal has given renewed hope to the NDP that the bloom is coming off the Kenney rose.

Notley wants the upcoming campaign to focus on her positive vision for the future, versus what she calls Kenney’s “false populism” aimed at “tearing everything down.”

She’s well aware she’s trailing behind.

“I have not been in any campaign where I didn’t start out as the underdog, and it typically worked out well,” said Notley. “I’m not at all uncomfortable being the underdog in the campaign.”

Notley is hoping 2019 will be a repeat of 2015 — the Year of the Political Miracle.

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