After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Indians. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Boston / Philadelphia / St. Louis.

Batters

Just as was the case in 2013, Cleveland is likely to enter 2014 with a number of useful players rotating between multiple positions. Carlos Santana, for example, will very probably make starts at catcher, first base, and DH — even moreso at the latter two positions if Yan Gomes is able to approximate his 2013 campaign. Nick Swisher, as he did this past season, will likely record starts at first and right and DH. Mike Aviles — again, despite not having a starting position, per se — is a candidate to make a number of appearances defensively at third and short.

As for right-handed-batting Ryan Raburn and Drew Stubbs, their roles are perhaps less clear than in the recently completed season — at least so long as both of them are employed by the Indians. While the former makes little enough ($2.25 million) for the club to retain him in merely an outfield platoon (in which role he posted a 2.5 WAR in 2013), Stubbs is projected to make about $1.5 million more than that via arbitration and is probably regarded by some teams as a possible starting option. Cleveland tendered him a contract recently, but it wouldn’t be surprising to find him involved in a deal (for pitching help, perhaps) at some point in the near future.

Pitchers

Cleveland entered 2013 with what appeared to be an alarming lack of quality in the rotation. “Appeared,” I say. In fact, with the return to form of Ubaldo Jimenez and (even more significantly) Scott Kazmir, the emergence of Corey Kluber, and the development of Danny Salazar — with all that, the roation became a decided strength for the club. By the end of the season, it was possible for manager Terry Francona to utilize Justin Masterson as a relief ace upon the side-armer’s return from injury.

The current offseason has seen the departures both of Jimenez and Kazmir, however, to free agency (and, in Kazmir’s case, on to Oakland) thus creating rotation trouble for Cleveland again as 2014 approaches. As noted above, a surplus of outfield depth might be one means to adding another starting pitcher. If Cleveland has designs on the playoffs again, then some sort of acquisition likely necessary.

As for the bullpen, it was not a strength in 2013, recording fewer than two wins as a group. There’s a possible instance of real-live addition by subtraction here, however: closer Chris Perez, since released, posted a -0.9 WAR, worst among the club’s relief corps.

Bench/Prospects

As noted above, a number of players not expressly included on the depth chart below are still likely to record significant playing time, including (but not limited to) Mike Aviles, Ryan Raburn, and Drew Stubbs. Jason Giambi, meanwhile — re-signed already for 2014 — is another candidate to receive at-bats, even if ZiPS isn’t entirely enthusiastic about the outcome of this at-bats. Among prospects, both of Cleveland’s young middle-infield tandem, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, are projected to record something better than replacement level.

Depth Chart

Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Clevelanders, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.