2019 has not been a season to remember for the Titans (see what I did there…).

Dead last in the NRL, coach Gareth Brennan copped the axe and a salary cap nightmare according to proposed saviour Mal Meninga leaves things looking pretty bleak in the near future for Queensland’s other, other team.

But what if the Titans could be fixed? By new coach Justin Holbrook… or by statistics. This instalment of By the numbers will attempt to work within the confines of the Titans salary cap and bad contract hell to propose a squad that could contend for finals in 2020 while building the core of a squad that can challenge for years to come. Titan up!

2019



After 21 rounds the Titans have just 4 wins, 15 losses and a differential of minus 187. They are just as bad at home (2-8) as they are away (2-7). Here are the Titans league ranks in the key attacking statistical categories after 19 rounds (we draw the line here as the new coach begins experimenting).

Points T Poss Comp Runs Run Meters OL

TA LB LBA TB Ave 15.1 2.6 47.0 77.8 167.0 1,445.7 8.6 2.1 2.7 1.7 28.1 Rank 14th 13th 13th 5th 12th 14th 9th 11th 15th 16th 11th

And defensive plus negative play

Category Tackles Missed Tackles Ineffective

Tackles Penalties

Conceded Errors Handling errors Average 328.1 31.3 15.0 6.3 9.9 7.9 Rank 6th most 5th most 9th

most 7th

most 7th most 13th

most

Not a pretty picture. On the positive our Titans (we run them for the duration of this experiment) complete their sets, ranking 5th in the comp. Clearly though this not leading to points (14th) or repeat sets (12th in runs) and our defence is overworked (6th most tackles) and underperforming (5th most missed tackles & most points allowed). We concede the 4th least handling errors (7.9), but are not creating for our skill players (11th in Try Assists, 16th in Line break assists).

For season 2020, we (the Titans) need better run production and tackle rates (forwards), more points (winger) and creators (halves). Who of the 2019 squad has performed and held their spot though?

2019 Forwards Review

Games Tries LB’s LBA’s Tackle Breaks Offloads Tkls Tackle

Efficiency B. Cartwright 19 3 – 7 13 32 508 89.1% J. Stockwell 13 – – – 7 2 200 91.1% J. Arrow 13 – – – 37 18 410 89.9% J.Whitbread 14 – – – 15 2 383 92.6% J. Wallace 18 2 2 – 33 21 470 91.1% K. Hipgrave 7 – – – 12 1 128 82.4% K. Proctor 18 2 3 – 23 8 667 90.1% L. Latu 3 – – – – 1 30 80.6% M. Fotuaika 18 – 1 – 28 10 480 91.5% R. James 6 – – – 11 – 191 93.0% S. Stone 4 – – – 1 4 129 87.7% S. Boyd 13 – – – 6 2 292 89.7% W. Matthews 2 – – – – – 35 90.4% N. Peats 10 – – 2 2 2 432 91.0% M. Rein 16 – – 1 20 3 698 93.3%

Note: Darius Farmer is in the Squad but has not played an NRL game.

Winners



As you would expect it’s Arrow, Wallace, Proctor and before he was hurt, James. Fotuaika has been a pleasant surprise this year with an elite 91.5% tackle efficiency and 28 tackle breaks. Bryce Cartwright is the biggest surprise with a strong 89.9% tackle efficiency, a whopping 32 offloads and a very impressive 7 linebreak assists. Mitch Rein clearly outperformed Nathan Peats.

Losers

Leilani Latu has had a horror year with no tackle breaks and a poor 80.6% tackle efficiency. Shannon Boyd has been disappointing with just 6 tackle breaks, 2 offloads and no scores. Keegan Hipgrave is a tough, throwback style player but statistically he is a shocker with a 82.4% tackle efficiency. Will Matthews, Sam Stone and Nathan Peats were outperformed by their positional rivals.

2019 Backs Review

Games Played Tries Try Assists Linebreaks Linebreak Assists Tackle Efficiency % A. Brimson 17 4 5 7 4 67.8% A. Don 17 8 1 6 – 71.4% A. Taylor 10 – 6 – 4 86.0% B. Lee 6 2 – 1 – 83.4% B. Kelly 18 6 5 10 – 73.3% D. Copley 15 9 2 8 – 69.0% J. Arthurs 8 – 1 – – 81.3% K. Watkins 3 – – – – 81.8% M. Gordon 12 3 1 7 – 60.3% P. Sami 11 5 1 7 – 57.6% R. Jacks 9 3 1 1 1 81.2% T. Peachey 17 2 3 3 – 82.8% T. Roberts 15 6 11 5 5 77.6%

Note: Kea Pere, Tanah Boyd and Treymain Spry are in the Squad but have not played an NRL game.

Brian Kelly has been terrific, Phillip Sami have been effective, while Englishman Kallum Watkins gets a pass for coming in late, though he will be on a short leash for our 2020 Titans. Anthony Don continues to just produce each year (2nd in tries), though we are looking for someone a little more dynamic for that role. Tyrone Roberts has been creative (11 Try assists) while Dale Copley has been quietly productive and leads the try scoring.

Forward production

A clear issue for the Titans is ball running from the Forwards. Our Titans ranks 15th in the NRL for Run Metres, despite sitting 10th for total number of runs. Hitups set the table for the rest of the attack and has been identified as a massive area of need for these 2020 Titans. To measure the production of our forwards ball running I am introducing the HMPR (Hitup metres per run) stat. This will measure the success of Forwards in their hitups and allow us to identify players to improve this area for 2020. To give context to elite production for this stat Dave Klemmer has a HUPMR of 9.64 on 16.6 Hitups per game.

Player Average Hitups per game HMPR M.Fotuaika 11.80 9.78 K. Proctor 8.11 9.65 J. Arrow 15.00 9.35 J. Wallace 12.50 9.22 K. Hipgrave 6.30 9.13 W. Matthews 5.00 9.00 S. Boyd 9.10 8.66 J. Whitbread 9.60 8.51 J. Stockwell 6.20 8.51 L.Latu 3.70 8.10 B. Cartwright 6.26 7.99 R. James 12.00 7.86 S. Stone 8.75 7.71

Fotuaika stands out again in what has truly been a breakout season for him. Shannon Boyd’s production, remembering this is his main role on the team, is concerning. B. Cartwright’s is awful and Ryan James is a big step down from previous years. New recruit Sam Stone is clearly not added the Hitup Metres we were looking for. This is an area we will definitively upgrade for 2020.

Contracts

2020 Off Contracts

The following players come off contract at the end of 2019:

Jesse Arthurs

Michael Gordon (who has announced his retirement)

Ryley Jacks

Brenko Lee

Will Matthews

Jack Stockwell

Based on their 2019 performances there would be no tears if we resigned none of them. There is some intrigue around the potential of Arthurs and Stockwell and we may retain them depending on our salary cap situation and the incoming players we may acquire. Jacks is a workmanlike reserve but with Tanah Boyd coming through, is replaceable.

Big Money Contracts

Every team has some contracts they would love a do over on (see Boyd, Darius). Our Titans however have many. Far too many. In fact, of the 55 most expensive players for 2019, 9 are Titans. 9, and we are dead last on the league table! The average should be 3.43 per team and we have a whopping 9!! Here are our high priced offenders

Player League Rank Believed Salary Signed until end of Ash Taylor T-3rd 1,000,000 2021 Ryan James 34th 700,000 2020 Shannon Boyd T-40th 600,000 2022 Bryce Cartwright T-40th 600,000 2021 Tyrone Peachey T-40th 600,000 2021 Nathan Peats T-40th 600,000 2020 Jarrod Wallace T-40th 600,000 2022 Kevin Proctor T-49th 550,000 2020 Leilani Latu 54th 500,000 2020

To see the list of the most expensive players visit

www.zerotackle.com/rugby-league/players/highest-paid-players.

Evidently we like throwing 600K contracts at underperforming players (not you Jarrod Wallace). Of course, none of them come off contract this season… So here’s hoping the English Super League comes a calling. Seriously though, we will make everyone on this list except Ryan James, Jarrod Wallace and Kevin Proctor available in the hopes we can shed at least 2 of these deals. Taylor’s deal makes him unlikely to be taken and if he can get sorted with his personal issues there may still be a future for him on the Coast. Boyd has been a massive disappointment with his hit up runs and metres, which is what he was brought in for, but is a recent Kangaroos prop so we may have a taker who hopes to get him back on track. He’s gone. No one would pay half what we are paying Cartwright, so we’re stuck with him. Same for Peachey, though we have an idea of how to better utilise them (more on that later). Peats is fine but if he goes we have Rein so at that price someone like the Tigers may need him. He’s gone. Latu’s contract is abysmal. Hopefully English teams remember him with the Panther’s and use him as a short range weapon. He’s gone.

Good. Three bloated contacts gone in Boyd, Peats & Latu (remember, this is hypothetical) which means now we have some cash, 1.7 million a year to be exact, so let’s go shopping.

2020 Targets



Big Mal tells us we have nothing left in the salary cap, after he signed his schoolboy prodigy, even with the off-contract players not being resigned. Thanks to the previous regime we don’t have much to work with other than the money we have saved on offloading the above contracts. With this in mind we have mined the off contract and feeder club talent available to create our wish list of players who meet our specific needs. Our 2020 wish list:

NRL Targets

Player 2019

Team GP Min

Avg

T TB OL

Tkls Tkl Effec.

% Hit

Run Mtrs Hit

Run Mtrs Avg Hitup Metres Per Run (HMPR) Herman Ese’Ese Knights 15 33.6 1 32 6 299 90.4% 965 64.33 8.81 Toafofoa Sipley Manly 9 24.0 – 5 6 123 97.1% 450 50.00 8.47 Danny Fualolo Bulldogs 15 33.0 – 9 2 268 90.4% 953 63.53 9.20 Corey Jensen Cowboys 6 16.0 – 1 – 66 74.6% 219 36.50 9.86



Ese’Ese is the big ticket item on our list. We know that he is off-contract and is believed to be on half of Shannon Boyd’s salary. However Ese’Ese’s performance is far better than half of Boyds, in fact they are very much his equal. Here is the comparison of the two.

Believed Salary T TB’s OL Tackles Tackle

Effic.

% Hitup

Run Metres Hitup

Run Metres Average Hitup Metres Per Run (HMPR) Boyd 600K – 6 2 292 89.7% 1,025 78.84 8.66 Ese’Ese 300K 1 32 6 299 90.4% 965 64.33 8.81

Canterbury Cup and Intrust Super Cup Targets

Player Age 2019 Club Pos Lachlan Timm 23 Magpies/

Eels 691 Tackles 1st in the Cup 3,293 Run metres 2nd in the Cup 2nd most runs Prop Jaimin Jolliffe 22 Jets /

Sharks 90.0% Tackle efficiency 6th in Cup in tackles 3rd in Total run metres 42 Tackle Breaks 9.16 HUPMR Prop Jordan Grant 25 Redcliff 91.5% tackle efficiency 44 Tackle Breaks 32 offloads 132.09 Average

HUPM 9.85 HUPMR Prop Tom Gilbert 19 Black

Hawks 86.3%

tackle efficiency 43 Tackle Breaks 131.2

Average HUPM 14.7 HUPS per gm 8.92

HUPMR Prop Harry Grant 21 Falcons 748 Tackles 3rd in Tackles 1st in Receipts 14 Tries 20 Try Assists Hooker Greg Leleisiuao 22 Magpies/

Eels 155 Tackle breaks 1st in the Cup 1st in total run metres 2nd in Offloads 3rd in KRM Wing



The NRL minimum salary for a player in 2019 is 105K. This rises to 110K next season with the salary cap rising from 9.6m to 9.8m.

Without knowing all the ins and out of the contracts these players are currently on, we can offer each the following based on our current financial state.

Player Age Offer Years Comment Herman Ese’Ese 24 300K 3 The prize jewel of our rebuild, affordable after disappointing year. Toafofoa Sipley 24 225K 3 Still developing. Should be a starter in 2 years, could possibly become more. Corey Jensen 25 125K 1 Needs a home, needs to improve defensively, worth a flyer offer Danny Fualolo 24 200K 3 Underrated player. Has improvement in him. Improves current squad. Lachlan Timm 23 200K 3 Potential future star. Jaimin Jolliffe 150K 3 Gives him time to develop. A flyer. Jordan Grant 25 125K 2 Age is against him getting a better deal. Tom Gilbert 19 200K 4 Will lock him up into the start of his prime. Harry Grant 21 200K 4 Will be our Hooker of the future. Greg Leleisiuao 22 150K 4 Could become a game breaking try scorer. Return home for Ex-Titan Jnr.



Total available to spend: 1.7m

Total offers made: 1.875

It is highly unlikely that we will sign all 10, but in the unlikely event that we do we will pull the offer to Corey Jensen and restructure some other contracts to cover the small gap. Since this is our hypothetical we will keep all 10 and squeeze the numbers into the cap thanks to some shrewd contract negotiating by Big Mal and the dumping of Keegan Hipgrave



Arrivals & Departures

Arriving Departing

Herman Ese’Ese Shannon Boyd

Toafoa Sipley Leilani Latu

Corey Jensen Will Matthews

Danny Fualolo Michael Gordon

Lachlan Timm Brenko Lee

Jaimin Joliffe Ryley Jacks

Jordan Grant Jack Stockwell

Harvey Grant Nathan Peats

Tom Gilbert Keegan Hipgrave

Greg Leleisiuao Darius Farmer

We have improved our HUPMR by %, found our future Hooker and Winger, greatly improved our Forward depth for this season and the next several, all while shedding some undesirable contracts. Ryley Jacks will be welcomed back if Ash Taylor continues to be MIA.



Increased HUPMR

IN HMPR Improvement HMPR OUT Herman Ese’Ese 8.81 2.81% 8.66 Shannon Boyd Toafofoa Sipley 8.47 4.56% 8.10 L. Latu Danny Fualolo 9.20 8.10% 8.51 J. Stockwell Corey Jenson 9.86 9.55% 9.00 W. Matthews Jordan Grant 9.85 7.88% 9.13 K. Hipgrave Total 46.19 7.15% 43.40 Total



The Roosters, ranked number 1 in the comp, have beaten us by 9.2% in 2019, this 7.15% improvement in HMPR for 2020 puts us in a much more competitive position next season. Improving our go forward is going to create more space and opportunities for our Halves and Backs, all driven by our key focus: improved Hitups.

2020 Depth Chart

And now….The grand unveiling of your new look 2020 Gold Coast Titans

Wing Centre 2RF Prop Lock Prop 2RF Centre Wing A.Don K.

Watkins K.

Proctor J.

Wallace J.Arrow M. Fotuaika R. James B.Kelly P. Sami J. Arthurs D.

Copley D.

Fualolo T. Sipley J. Grant H. Ese’Ese S. Stone T. Peachey Leleisuao T. Spry B. Cart

wright S. Stone J.Joliffe T. Gilbert K. Pere C. Jensen T. Gilbert Half Hooker Fullback 5/8 A. Taylor M. Rein A. Brimson T. Roberts T. Boyd H. Grant T. Peachey B. Cart

wright



Projected 2020 Team List Round 1 2019 Original Team List

1. A. Brimson Fullback 1. M.Gordon

2. A. Don Wing 2. B. Lee

3. K. Watkins Centre 3. T. Peachey

4. B. Kelly Centre 4. B. Kelly

5. P. Sami Wing 5. P.Sami

6. T. Roberts Five-Eighth 6. T. Roberts

7. A. Taylor Halfback 7. A. Taylor

8. J. Wallace Prop 8. J. Wallace

9. M. Rein Hooker 9. N. Peats

10. M. Fotuaika Prop 10. S. Boyd

11. K. Proctor 2RF 11. K. Proctor

12. R. James 2RF 12. R. James

13. J. Arrow Lock 13. J. Arrow

14. H. Ese’Ese Interchange 14. M. Fotuaika

15. T. Sipley Interchange 15. M. King

16. D. Fualolo Interchange 16. B. Cartwright

17. T. Peachey Interchange 17. A. Brimson

18. L. Timm Reserve 18. M. Rein

19. B.Cartwright Reserve 19. D. Copley

20. J. Grant Reserve 20. A. Don

21. H. Grant Reserve 21. K. Hipgrave

5 Changes to the starting lineup, 4 changes on the bench and 10 personnel changes. Peachey will play as the super utility, covering all the backs and playing as a forward when in game injuries arrive. In the event he is starting at centre or Fullback due to injury, Cartwright would take his bench spot covering the Forwards and the Halves. Watkins is on a short leash, if he doesn’t settle into the NRL game Copley will be recalled. Ese’Ese will play 40 mins a game as a devastating ball runner, Sipley and Fuasalo will give an improved performance from the bench than what we have endured in 2019. Leleisuao will push the Don, Grant will push Rein and the Forward depth will create many more options, and injury covers, in 2020. The increased Forward production willopen up opportunity for the halves and backs, with Kelly, Sami and Brimson expected to star.



Finals in 2020

In the interest of fairness; the Titans haven’t had a great run in 2019 with injuries and absences of key players in James, Arrow, Wallace and Taylor. With these key figures back on board, the return of the better performers (and those we couldn’t offload) in this year’s squad being used in the manner we have determined (Cartwright, Peachey) and with our new additions, these hypothetical Titans will play Finals football in 2020. Stronger ball running, more reliable tacklers, more creative attack and better finishing will be the hallmarks of these Titans.

All stats courtesy of NRL.com and Zerotackle.com



What do you think? How would you go about fixing the Titans? Let’s hear it in the comments.

In the meantime: Titans in the 2020 Finals – Titan Up!

As always, thanks for reading and good luck to your club this weekend

Scoop.