Guardian writers’ predicted position: 12th (NB: this is not necessarily Jacob Steinberg’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position: 12th

Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker): 1,500-1

The reaction will be like a knowing tut from your mum when you cheerfully ignore her pleas to wear a jumper before venturing outside into the cold and return home with a sore throat and an all-consuming desire for sympathy.

If West Ham find themselves shivering in the winter months, they will not be able to say that no one warned them about the consequences of letting go of Sam Allardyce. They have been told repeatedly and ploughed on regardless, paying little heed to the received wisdom that saying goodbye to Allardyce is asking for relegation.

The one snag in that theory is that Newcastle United were relegated not because they sacked Allardyce but because Mike Ashley was presiding over a shambles, Bolton Wanderers went down five years and three managers after his decision to leave and Blackburn Rovers, well, Venky’s were too busy concentrating on signing Ronaldinho and David Beckham to hire a proper manager. It is true that West Ham are playing a dangerous game by trusting that Slaven Bilic represents an upgrade on Allardyce a year before their move to the Olympic Stadium, and Thursday night’s defeat at Astra Giurgiu means the team go into the Premier League season having already been knocked out of Europe, but it is not guaranteed that they will struggle domestically.

West Ham needed a fresh start after four years of grumbling about Allardyce. His relationship with the board and supporters had reached the point of no return at the end of last season. Although he won promotion in his first season and established West Ham in the Premier League by instilling a tougher mentality at a club whose players have had the attention span of Homer Simpson confronted by a dog with a puffy tail in the past, there was always discontent over the style of football, which was perceived to be negative and dull. Allardyce could have sneezed on the touchline and the crowd would have taken it as a sign that he was sticking 10 men behind the ball.

The reality of the Allardyce era lay somewhere between the stereotype of constant tedium and his Allardici self-hype. His football could sometimes be invigorating if one had an open mind about it, especially when Andy Carroll’s absence forced him to think outside the lump-it-in-the-box template in the first half of last season and he hit upon a diamond formation which brought the best out of Stewart Downing. However the manner of West Ham’s plummet from the top four after Christmas sealed Allardyce’s fate and a dreadful run of results convinced the owners, David Sullivan and David Gold, not to offer him a new contract. Injuries did not help Allardyce’s cause but those who insisted he had run out of ideas pointed out that he was overseeing relegation form: West Ham’s only league wins in 2015 came against Burnley, Hull City and Sunderland.

So in comes Bilic, a charismatic former West Ham defender who enjoys the backing of the crowd for now, although anyone who recalls the rancour that followed the Croatian’s controversial move to Everton in 1997 knows that attempts to depict his appointment as an emotional homecoming are slightly wide of the mark.

Bilic is still popular in east London, however, and it has been likely that he would be West Ham’s manager one day ever since his Croatia side made an impression on people in this country by qualifying for Euro 2008 at England’s expense. He has always wanted to manage in England and, unlike Allardyce, he will endear himself to supporters by saying the right things. In Turkey he was seen as something of a politician during his time at Besiktas and that charm, his appreciation of knowing what people want to hear, should buy him more time if West Ham do not hit the ground running.

A manager’s utterances should not be that important, yet they do matter in times of adversity. Although Allardyce was abrasive and never got to grips with understanding West Ham, his immense self-confidence gave him a thick skin despite the criticism that flew his way throughout most of his tenure and ensured that his players respected him.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Stewart Downing impressed last season but has left for Middlesbrough. Photograph: Tony O'Brien/Action Images

It is not that Bilic will be a happy-clappy cheerleader, constantly banging on about the West Ham Way and the undisputable fact that they won the World Cup in 1966, but the early impression is that he will bring a touch more glamour and excitement than Allardyce. He is the kind of person who instinctively appeals to supporters and another populist move was the addition of Julian Dicks, a West Ham legend, to Bilic’s staff. Dicks managed West Ham Ladies last season, but he does not have much coaching experience.

Whether these changes will prove enough on the pitch remains unclear and it is not immediately obvious that Bilic is a better manager than Allardyce, who, for all his faults, understands the demands of English football. Bilic had a positive impact with Croatia and they were unfortunate to lose a dramatic quarter-final on penalties to Turkey at Euro 2008. His time at Lokomotiv Moscow was a disappointment and he did not win the Turkish league with Besiktas.

Equally, however, Besiktas were unable to use their stadium because of construction work during Bilic’s two years there and their title challenge last season was held back by their Europa League campaign. They pushed Arsenal hard despite losing 1-0 on aggregate to them in their Champions League play-off last August, they took four points off Tottenham Hotspur in their Europa League group and beat Liverpool on penalties in the round of 32. However a source of concern is that Bilic was not appointed in the immediate aftermath of Allardyce’s departure. It had been widely accepted that Allardyce was going by the time he left on the final day of the season but Bilic was not installed until 9 June.

West Ham were frustrated in discussions with other managers. David Moyes decided to prolong his stay at Real Sociedad, Unai Emery could not be tempted away from Sevilla after they qualified for the Champions League and Rafael Benítez surprisingly decided to accept an offer from Real Madrid instead. Marseille’s Marcelo Bielsa also featured in the club’s thinking. In the end, they plumped for Bilic.

Preparations for the new season have not been ideal, with West Ham’s unexpected entry into Europe via the Fair Play League forcing them to start their season with a qualifier against the Andorran part-timers of FC Lusitans on 2 July. They have been mixing pre-season friendlies with competitive, meaningful matches and it has not been straightforward doing so while some players have been missing, others have been getting up to speed and transfer business is still being conducted.

Reading too much into pre-season games is a waste of time, but a couple of unconvincing performances have made the mood more cautious. A side that was packed with reserves needed penalties to beat Malta’s FC Birkirkara on penalties in the second qualifying round and how very West Ham that they should qualify for Europe because of their fine disciplinary record and then pick up three stupid red cards in their first five matches. Diafra Sakho and James Tomkins reacted to provocation against Lusitans and Birkirkara respectively, and West Ham squandered a 2-0 lead against FC Astra Giurgi after James Collins was sent off for two quick bookings in the first leg last week.

Ultimately going out to Astra on Thursday night might have be a blessing in disguise. West Ham finished 12th last season, which hardly suggests that they are equipped to deal with the demands of the Europa League. Better sides than West Ham have struggled to recover after their exertions on a Thursday night and their squad lacks depth. The priority is staying up; imagine the embarrassment if West Ham’s final season at Upton Park ends with them going down and beginning the Olympic Stadium era in the Championship.

That is the worst-case scenario, although with a couple more additions in key areas, West Ham should be strong enough to finish in mid-table. They played well for an hour against Astra. Bilic used a 4-3-1-2 formation which had Dimitri Payet operating in a free role and the French winger can be expected to dazzle after his arrival from Marseille. Tempting Payet to West Ham is a sign of ambition, assuming he settles in England and that he does not turn out to be more of a Rémy Cabella than a David Ginola. Payet created plenty of goals for Marseille last season.

However the 2-2 draw with Astra was marred by Enner Valencia’s injury. Shortly after Valencia had given West Ham the lead with a powerful header from Payet’s cross, he was taken off on a stretcher. The good news is that he does not need surgery on his knee and ankle and should be out for roughly 10 weeks rather than the six months that were initially feared. The bad news is that Valencia’s absence means that with Andy Carroll not expected to return from his knee injury until October, West Ham are one Sakho injury away from having to rely on Modibo Maïga and Mauro Zárate up front.

West Ham must sign a striker, because Maïga is out of his depth and Zárate is a luxury player who hangs on to the ball for too long. They are trying to get a work permit for Atlético Madrid’s Mexican forward Raúl Jiménez and are also targeting Queens Park Rangers’ Charlie Austin. Jiménez was not prolific for Atlético; QPR will need to lower their £15m valuation of Austin.

What will Bilic have planned for Carroll when he returns? Carroll was Allardyce’s biggest signing at £15m from Liverpool two years ago but he has been blighted by injuries at Upton Park, every promising run of form scuppered by another lengthy spell on the sidelines. As likable as the big striker is, he is veering dangerously close to being written off as a dud. Yet although he may not be an automatic starter under Bilic, he can still be a hugely effective option, not least when he is paired with another striker. His lack of pace makes West Ham predictable, easy to defend against and too quick to launch the ball long when Carroll plays on his own up front.

They were at their most devastating as an attacking force last season when Sakho and Valencia started together. Sakho surely would have scored more than 12 goals after joining for £3.5m from Metz if his season had not been prematurely ended by a thigh injury in April and the pair were pivotal in West Ham’s victories over Liverpool and Manchester City during the autumn.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest What will Slaven Bilic do with Andy Carroll when the striker is fit? Photograph: Jamie McDonald/Getty Images

That was when West Ham were playing with a diamond in midfield. Downing was superb in that system and watching him link up with Payet would have been a delight – yet he was allowed to follow his heart and move back to Middlesbrough. Payet was supposed to complement Downing rather than be his replacement and his departure has left West Ham searching for another creative player.

Matt Jarvis has no end product and even less confidence, Morgan Amalfitano is too inconsistent to start regularly, Martin Samuelsen is only 18 and West Ham have taken a punt on Manuel Lanzini, a 22-year-old Argentinian forward who has joined on loan from Al Jazira Club in Qatar. For what it is worth, Lanzini’s nickname is The Jewel and will hopefully turn out to be more useful than the last South American player brought in from Qatar, Nenê. Payet will need some more assistance than just Lanzini and West Ham are targeting Barcelona’s young Croatian, Alen Halilovic.

Another Barcelona player who could join is Alex Song, who was on loan at West Ham last season. He made them tick before Christmas and although his form fizzled out, signing him on a permanent basis would undeniably be a coup. The deal was held up after Song injured an ankle.

If it goes through, he will slip into a midfield that already has a solid look to it. The versatile Cheikhou Kouyaté had an outstanding debut season in England and Mark Noble is dependable, while Pedro Obiang was highly rated at Sampdoria.

Diego Poyet, neat and tidy, will hope to be involved more and Reece Oxford, who is only 16, has been assured as a defensive midfielder in pre-season, but Kevin Nolan’s best days are behind him. The captain is too slow, although he can be a useful ally for Bilic in the dressing room if he is ready to accept a reduced role.

Leadership should not be an issue, though. West Ham’s defence will be tough to penetrate if Bilic organises the team well. In goal, Adrián has developed into a cult hero, saving more than his fair share of penalties, and will be backed up by Darren Randolph, a free transfer from Birmingham City.

The right-back will be Carl Jenkinson, who has joined on loan from Arsenal again, and the diligent Aaron Cresswell will continue on the left. Joey O’Brien will provide cover for Jenkinson, Stephen Hendrie for Cresswell after his arrival from Hamilton Academicals.

Bilic’s options at centre-back are enviable. Winston Reid’s partner is likely to be Angelo Ogbonna after the Italy international left Juventus and Tomkins and Collins are able deputies. The Canada international, Doneil Henry, will push for recognition, while Reece Burke has impressed during a few cameos. Allardyce was content with only three centre-backs, a gamble that backfired on a couple of occasions, but West Ham have competition for places now.

There are holes that need to be filled elsewhere, but many of the pieces are there for Bilic, who needs to assemble them in the right order quickly. West Ham are in a unique position, the pressure on them to stay up more extreme than it has ever been. Relegation this season would be disaster from both a financial and PR perspective. Leaving Upton Park will be enough of an emotional wrench without people queuing up to tell them how misguided they were to get rid of Allardyce come the end of the season.