There was no clear winner in the election debate but NDP Leader Andrea Horwath surprised viewers with her performance and has the most momentum, according to a new Angus Reid poll conducted for the Star.

The next few days are crucial if the New Democrats are to translate her positive impressions — particularly with women — into votes before the Oct. 6 election, Angus Reid vice-president Jaideep Mukerji said Wednesday.

“It’ll be contingent on what she’s able to do after the debate. She has a small window of opportunity to make gains.”

Reinforcing what has been a tight race that so far suggests a minority government looms, the poll found neither Horwath, Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty nor Conservative Tim Hudak had strong enough performances to change voters’ minds outright.

“There wasn’t a sense any (leader) screwed up,” said Mukerji. “But Andrea Horwath drew some attention to herself in a positive way. I think she surprised people.”

The NDP leader had performed poorly in last Friday’s northern Ontario debate in Thunder Bay, but appeared to shake off the jitters and was more confident Tuesday.

The poll, which surveyed 1,000 people online after the debate Tuesday and into Wednesday, found 29 per cent of respondents picked McGuinty as the best performer, 27 per cent chose Hudak, 24 per cent picked Horwath and the rest were not sure. Angus Reid said the results are considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Almost one in five — 17 per cent — watched the full 90 minutes, 31 per cent caught parts and 52 per cent didn’t tune in.

An added feature of the poll using a tool called ReactionPlus showed respondents video clips of all three leaders in the debate and let them press buttons while listening to their closing statements to register their gut reactions under 11 categories: curious, engaged, interested, excited, confused, bored, informed, annoyed, happy, disturbed or tuned out.

While Horwath was not seen as a “strong and decisive leader” to the extent of her two male rivals — particularly McGuinty — she came out ahead on being the most honest, trustworthy, understanding and believable.

“She doesn’t annoy people,” Mukerji said. “It’s trust. They don’t see her as a decisive leader yet but they feel she’s more in tune” — particularly on health care.

Many respondents pressed the “annoyed” and “disturbed” buttons when McGuinty mentioned the economy has turned the corner after the 2008 recession that saw a heavy loss of manufacturing jobs and rising unemployment, which has since come down, said Mukerji.

“It does more than just annoy them, it disturbs them,” he added, noting this means some people strongly took exception to that portion of McGuinty’s remarks as he asked voters for a third term in office.

But Liberal supporters, not surprisingly, were fine.

“He held his base. People really liked or hated what he was saying,” Mukerji said.

For Hudak’s closing statement, there was a spike in respondents pressing the “annoyed” button as the rookie leader asked viewers if they felt they could afford another four years of McGuinty in power — but that was not a sign of hostility toward the Tories.

“It’s almost like people were agreeing with him,” said Mukerji. “When he moves to more positive topics, the annoyance level drops.”

Hudak’s attacks on McGuinty’s sudden promise last weekend to scrap and move a Mississauga natural gas power plant — in a riding the Liberals are at risk of losing — were “not a convincing win,” Mukerji added.

“He (Hudak) didn’t do too bad in any of this but he didn’t come out the winner, which is what he needed to do.”

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Horwath’s closing statement, which included her plea not to vote for “the same old suits,” shows her scoring high in curiosity, engagement and interest throughout.

“Men weren’t nearly as interested as women were,” Mukerji noted.

The poll suggests Conservative-leaning voters are more likely to start thinking about a move to Horwath than Liberals by a margin of five to one.

“But there’s a long way between saying that and voting,” Mukerji cautioned.

Asked about their own performances after the debate, all three leaders said they did well.

“It was a great chance to show that we have a positive, forward-looking plan while they keep putting forward negativity,” McGuinty told reporters after a massive rally in Toronto.

Horwath had a breakfast rally in Davenport, a Liberal riding up for grabs following the retirement of veteran MPP Tony Ruprecht.

“I think that last night we hit a home run. I can feel our momentum from one end of the province to the other,” she told about 100 enthusiastic supporters at Lula Lounge on Dundas St. West.

Hudak said he’s “feeling good about the way things are going” in the campaign, where a poll and seat projection last weekend showed his party is poised to gain about 20 ridings, which would still leave the Conservatives short of the 54 seats needed for a majority.

With files from Richard J. Brennan, Robert Benzie and Tanya Talaga.

How ReactionPlus works:

ReactionPlus is a web-based media screening platform used by Angus Reid Public Opinion and designed by Vision Critical to allow researchers to capture responses to audio and video content. Instead of relying on traditional dials, where respondents merely like or dislike what they hear and see, ReactionPlus allows participants to choose their emotional reactions as they happen, on a second-by-second basis, allowing for a profound examination of audience responses to drivers such as boredom, confusion, annoyance and intrigue.

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