Though Matthew Boyd is deemed by bookmakers as the most valuable pitcher for the Detroit Tigers, he likely should not be priced that way given his recent results. This overvaluing of Boyd gives the Twins unprecedented value on Saturday against a bad Tigers bunch.

Since the beginning of June, the Tigers are 2-13 in Boyd’s starts and despite him striking out more than 12 batters per nine innings, he is allowing over 2.6 home runs per nine innings to pair with his 5.84 ERA.

He will be opposed Saturday by Martin Perez, who has had his own issues this summer. He had a 10-start stretch from June 11 through Aug. 7 in which he had a 6.19 ERA. Though Perez has been a bit of an up-and-down pitcher, the totals have been up all year, as 13 of his last 16 starts have gone Over.

The last six Tigers-Twins entering Friday night went Over, and that’s the way to play it again on Saturday.

The play: Tigers-Twins, Over 9¹/₂ runs.