Foreigners Expected To Take 8 Out Of 10 Jobs In Sweden In 2018

Back in February we published an article estimating that refugees will cost Sweden $18.6 billion in 2017—9.3 times more than the government’s official estimates. In the article we also mentioned how few migrants were able to find work—only 500 of the migrants who entered Sweden in 2015 have since found jobs.

Basically, the migrants are expensive, and they do not contribute to Sweden’s economy.

Since then things seem to have improved economically, but big problems still lie ahead.

According to the Swedish Public Employment Service, some 50% of migrants are now employed. In what capacity it is not clear, but it is likely that most serve in de facto make-work positions (for example, cleaning migrant centers etc.), since so few have the skills necessary to succeed in the private sector.

We are skeptical that Sweden’s official figures represent the organic unemployment rate (the government of Sweden, like Germany, has a habit of “fudging” the numbers). It should also be noted that they estimate that the migrant unemployment rate will creep up to 60% by the end of 2017.

Another interesting piece of data: the same government agency estimates that by 2018 8 in 10 new jobs will be taken by foreigners, including legal immigrants and migrants.

While Sweden touts this as a unadulterated good, the impact on native Swedes is definitively less clear-cut.

Remember, the value of one’s labor is subject to the law of supply and demand, much like any other free market price. The more foreign labor is available in Sweden, the less pressure there is for Swedish employers to increase wages.

A good example of this comes out of Maine, US, where restrictions on the number of temporary work visas have forced local businesses to hire Americans, raise wages, and improve working conditions. Simply put:

…this shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone. It’s basic supply and demand: when supply goes up, prices go down (and vice versa). This is how free markets determine prices.

By adding immigrant labor (legal or illegal) into the market, you expand the labor supply, thereby decreasing its price (wages). There is no way around this fact. This is why businesses in Bar Harbor are increasing wages—they have to bid realistic prices to attract workers.

Employment rates are also affected, since foreign workers displace American workers. Why? It’s not because they’re better, it’s because they’re cheaper, and employers have more leverage over them—work long hours in poor conditions or face deportation.

The logic is unassailable: more labor means lower wages. This has yet to manifest in Sweden in a meaningful way, but it’s coming—make no mistake.