By Scott Conroy - July 22, 2011

The Paul Wildcard

Of all the scenarios that could turn the situation in Iowa on its head, a potential Paul victory at the straw poll is among the most intriguing -- and also laden with unpredictable aftershocks.

The possibility of a Paul win in Ames may seem implausible at first glance, given the Texas congressman's fifth-place showing at the 2007 straw poll, but he is going all-in this year in a way that he declined to do the last time around.

The Paul campaign purchased the most coveted real estate from the state party for the event, has been advertising heavily on Iowa TV for weeks, and the libertarian-leaning icon will spend the better part of the critical days leading up to Ames on the stump in Iowa.

Paul's Iowa campaign is well organized and purports to have harnessed the recent political winds to position itself as more of a mainline entity than the eccentric insurgent operation that it was the last time around.

"Four years ago, I remember John McCain and some of the other candidates snickering when Ron Paul talked about the Fed printing money out of thin air, and now everyone's talking about it," said Paul's Iowa vice chairman, A.J. Spiker. "Congressman Paul has held several meet-and-greets throughout Iowa, and one thing that's really different from four years ago is we're seeing a lot of traditional Republicans at events -- county GOP people that are coming. The message is resonating and they're really paying attention to it."

Spiker downplayed the possibility that the relevance of a Paul victory in Ames would largely be dismissed. "If top-tier campaigns do poorly at the straw poll, it will be representative of their organizations," he said. "It'll be a big deal because it's Iowa."

Indeed, the "big deal" nature of the state that has long been sacrosanct in American politics appears safe for now. But depending on what happens in Ames and afterward, the role that Iowa plays in Republican presidential politics and the strategies that candidates take here may never again be the same.