For the first time since the Cultural Revolution in 1966, China’s economy has contracted. This will be confirmed when the National Bureau of Statistics releases GDP figures for the first quarter of 2020 tomorrow. The sometimes starry-eyed view about the resilience and durability of high Chinese growth will not be the same. More important than what happened to the economy during the lockdown, however, is what happens next, what the lessons for the West are and whether our concerns should focus less on economic growth and more on survival.

Because China is about six to eight weeks ahead of the western world in the pandemic, we should take note of what has happened in the country. A comparable or worse contraction is bulldozing its way