Forecasters say the remnants of Hurricane Willa might form into a big coastal storm along the East Coast. (AccuWeather)

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By Len Melisurgo | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

If you plan to go pumpkin picking or apple picking on the pre-Halloween weekend, pay close attention to the weather forecast. Your weekend could get spoiled by a coastal storm that has the potential of dumping heavy rain and bringing gusty winds to the New Jersey region.

But don’t change your plans just yet. Forecasters say there’s a chance the storm might not even develop, or it could develop and move out to sea without pelting us with heavy rain.

"It could happen, but obviously, nothing has even formed yet," said Alex Staarmann, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's regional forecast office in Mount Holly, which oversees most of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, Delaware and parts of Maryland. "It's going to depend a lot on the evolution of the hurricane that's about to make landfall in Mexico."

UPDATE (OCT. 24): Halloween weekend storm could bring heavy rain, coastal flooding

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NYC NOREASTER POSSIBLY PROCEEDS HALLOWEEN https://t.co/XaqqYFyjN3 pic.twitter.com/QDW5MwrNZK — Joe Cioffi Weather (@joecioffi) October 21, 2018

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Tracking Hurricane Willa

The storm that Staarmann is referring to is Hurricane Willa, a monster Category 5 hurricane that is expected to make landfall Tuesday in western Mexico. As of late Monday morning, Willa was packing maximum sustained winds of 160 mph, which is capable of causing catastrophic damage to structures in its path.

The National Hurricane Center expects the hurricane to hit Mexico's Pacific coast as a major hurricane — Category 3, 4 or 5 — sometime Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening, then weaken to a tropical depression as it moves towards the northern Gulf coast of Texas.

“This storm, or a new storm born from its moisture, may make a northward turn along the Atlantic coast this weekend as a potential nor'easter," said Evan Duffey, a meteorologist at AccuWeather.

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Hurricane Willa is forecast to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico on Tuesday, then weaken to a tropical depression (National Hurricane Center).

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Uncertainty over forecast

At this point, five days away from Halloween weekend, a high degree of uncertainty exists. So forecasters will be watching the path of Willa and its remnants very closely during the next few days.

“Pretty much anything is possible at this point,” Staarmann said, noting the East Coast could get a coastal storm and there’s also a chance a coastal storm might not develop.

If the storm does take shape, computer guidance models are not on the same page over the timing and intensity. For now, the National Weather Service and AccuWeather are eyeing Saturday into Sunday as the period with the highest probability of rain for the New Jersey region.

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Continuing to watch a strong coastal low for the beginning of next week. The stronger the low, the more cold air that is ingested into the system. pic.twitter.com/IQTqVqETtD — WeatherBELL (@weatherbell) October 22, 2018

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Snow threat for New England

AccuWeather forecasters say the potential coastal storm could bring snow to parts of northern New England and the central Appalachians, all depending on the storm’s path.

"A storm that tracks well offshore of the mid-Atlantic, then strengthens and hooks northwestward toward New England is more likely to spare the central Appalachians of heavy snow," AccuWeather said in a storm report Monday morning. "A storm that hugs the mid-Atlantic coast and gets progressively stronger is more likely to bring heavy snow to the central Appalachians and perhaps less snow to northern New England."

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Another cold snap in N.J.

Regardless of whether a coastal storm affects New Jersey this weekend, we will have to deal with another cold snap this week, thanks to another cold front that is bringing chilly air to our region, the National Weather Service said.

Colder-than-normal temperatures are expected to linger in the Garden State on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, with the mercury stuck in the upper 40s to low 50s during the day and dropping down to the low to mid-30s overnight.

Those temperatures are more common in late November than late October.



Some good news: The highs on Tuesday are forecast to reach around 60 in North Jersey and 65 in South Jersey under partly sunny skies, although there's a slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon in the northern half of the state.

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Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.