If the Fed is going to raise rates in June, it will have to get clearance from what has become its most important constituency: the market. The early returns have not been good. Stocks sold off sharply Wednesday afternoon following the release of a summary from the April Fed meeting, and the market followed that up Thursday with another sharp drop. Over the course of its history, the U.S. central bank has a long record of not wanting to surprise investors. On the few occasions that did happen, like 1994, the results were not good. In recent years, the Fed largely has followed market dictates when it comes to raising and lowering rates. With the memories of what happened after the December 2015 hike fresh in their minds, Federal Open Market Committee members then aren't likely to move unless the market is ready.

However, according to one Fed watcher's interpretation, the FOMC is feeling a little less cowed by Wall Street sentiment. David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, believes the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting show a Fed less concerned about market reaction. "It would take a lot to scare them between now and June to make them say they won't raise rates at all because of some turmoil in the financial markets," Blitzer said in an interview. He pointed to one specific section of the minutes that read: Most participants judged that the benefits of using monetary policy to address threats to financial stability would typically be outweighed by the costs associated with deviations from the Committee's employment and price-stability objectives induced by such actions; some also noted that the benefits are highly uncertain. The implication would be that if the Fed kept holding off on raising rates simply because of market reaction, that could undermine its credibility, which hinges on addressing its dual mandate of full employment and price stability.