2.6 million have voted — What the (early) electorate looks like — Miami Man ‘MAGA bomber’ — ‘Lock him up!’ — Puerto Rico statehood and Fla. Presented by Facebook

Good Monday morning. There are 8 days until Election Day.

VOTERS ARE VOTING — The first weekend of statewide in-person early voting started strong with voters from Pensacola to Miami swamping the polls. As of Sunday morning, 2.6 million Floridians had already voted. That’s double the number of pre-Election Day ballots cast eight days out in the last midterm. So far, about one-fifth of all active registered voters have turned out. We don’t yet have Sunday’s data, so these numbers below don’t reflect the full weekend ...

RED VS. BLUE — As of Sunday morning, Republicans had cast about 43 percent of the total pre-Election Day ballots and Democrats had cast about 40 percent. The GOP advantage in voted ballots: 2.7 percentage points. At this point in 2014 (eight days out in the last midterm), Republicans were ahead by 7.6 points, and the GOP led by just 0.23 points in 2016. In recent days, Democrats have closed the gap (they trailed by 9.2 on Oct. 15) and at this rate might beat out Republicans in pre-Election Day ballots cast by Friday. As noted previously, we track ballot returns by party to get a general sense of partisan intensity (so this isn’t about independents).

THE YOUNG PEOPLE WILL ... STAY HOME? — Remember all that talk of how “the young people will win” and come out in force in Florida, especially after the Parkland massacre? So far, it’s not happening. Voters between the ages of 18-29 are 17 percent of the registered voters in Florida but have only cast 5 percent of the ballots so far. They tend to vote more Democratic. Meanwhile, voters 65 and older are 18.4 percent of the electorate but have cast 51.4 percent of the ballots. And older voters tend to vote more Republican.

THE WHITES WILL ... VOTE HEAVILY — In looking at votes by race, whites (who also tend to vote more Republican) are crushing it. Non-whites (who vote heavily Democratic) aren’t. So far, white people have cast 72.7 percent of the pre-Election Day ballots, even though they’re 63.3 percent of the registered Florida voters. African-Americans have cast just 10.4 percent of the ballots, but they’re 13.3 percent of the registered Florida voters. Hispanics have cast just 11.7 percent of the ballots, but they’re 16.5 percent of the electorate. The black turnout numbers should change after we get statewide numbers from Sunday, the first of two “Souls to the Polls” days for after-church voting. In Jacksonville’s Duval County (a GOP-leaning county where a majority of Democrats are black), a strong early vote gave Democrats an edge of 493 votes over Republicans.

— “Is this a blue wave? No. I’m not seeing it yet. But it still remains early. There’s a full week and another weekend of in-person early voting and absentee ballot voting,” said Daniel A. Smith, University of Florida political science professor who kindly helped with some of these numbers and has a must-read blog, ElectionSmith, and Twitter feed, @electionsmith.

GUV TRAIL

THE BEGINNING — “Undercover FBI agent agreed to pay for Gillum fundraiser, according to documents,” by POLITICO Florida’s Matt Dixon: An undercover FBI agent agreed to help pay for an Andrew Gillum political fundraiser that helped kick off what would become his gubernatorial bid, according to new documents released Friday. The records were released by the attorney for lobbyist Adam Corey, who is a longtime Gillum political ally, as part of a Florida Commission on Ethics investigation into trips both he and Gillum took to New York City and Costa Rica in 2016. Read more

TANGLED WEB — “New documents contradict Florida Democratic nominee Gillum,” by AP’s Gary Fineout: Read more

‘LOCK HIM UP’ — “As Ron DeSantis attacks Andrew Gillum, South Florida crowd responds ‘lock him up’,” by Sun Sentinel’s Anthony Man: “Just over two minutes into his speech, DeSantis turned his attention to Gillum — and stayed focused on the Democrat for most of the 27 minutes he addressed the crowd. He repeatedly labeled Gillum a liar, and the crowd frequently booed at mentions of the Democrat’s name. At two points, after DeSantis delivered strings of criticisms of Gillum, people in the crowd began chanting ‘lock him up’ — reminiscent of the ‘lock her up’ chants that punctuated President Donald Trump’s 2016 rallies during his campaign against Democrat Hillary Clinton.” Read more

SIRI, PLAY ‘MAGA DOG’ — “Ron DeSantis fires back: Andrew Gillum ‘called me a dog’ at debate,” by Orlando Sentinel’s Mark Skoneki: “Republican Ron DeSantis had a fiery response Saturday to the flap over him calling his Democratic opponent for governor Andrew Gillum by his first name at two statewide debates. ‘He called a me a dog at the debate,’ DeSantis said after Fox News 13 Tampa reporter Jennifer Holton asked him about the issue. ‘Did you watch that?’” Read more

PACKED HOUSE — Social media was packed Sunday with crowd shots of an Andrew Gillum rallies in ruby red St. Johns and Clay Counties. The campaign serves up the pictures of packed events as unprecedented enthusiasm in parts of the state Democrats don’t generally get notices. “Crowds like this aren’t normal — especially in St. Augustine,” tweeted Gillum advisor Kevin Cate. The sheer numbers and apparent enthusiasm is notable, but it’s unclear if it will translate to the ballot box. In St. Johns County, for instance, Republicans held a 30-point turnout advantage through Saturday. But in Duval, as noted above, Democrats came out in force.

2020 VISION — California Sen. (and likely candidate for president) Kamala Harris campaigned for Nelson and Gillum in Miami on Sunday

BELLWETHER? — “DeSantis, Gillum Target Pinellas County As Election Nears,” by WUSF’s Daylina Miller and Steve Newborn: Read more



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SEN. TRAIL

HOME SWEET HOME — After being assailed over his wealth, Gov. Rick Scott’s Senate campaign is striking back at Sen. Bill Nelson and accusing the Democrat in a new ad of engaging in “Corruption, Washington style.” The issue: Nelson sold a Virginia house to a company linked to Rafik Hariri (who later became Lebanon’s president) in 1989 for $3.4 million even though the house was valued at $1.47 million. Hariri sold the house 11 years later for $1.5 million less than he paid. Curious? Yes. But it’s not clear where the corruption is, and Nelson, according to the Scott campaign’s backup document, did not appear to engage in a quid pro quo (an essential element of corruption).

SIDE-BY-SIDE — “‘Keep away’ no more: Scott to stump with Trump,” by POLITICO Florida’s Marc Caputo: Gov. Rick Scott has decided to return to the campaign trail by standing shoulder to shoulder with Donald Trump — a close ally whose support Scott has downplayed in recent months — when the president comes to Florida on Halloween. Scott announced after Hurricane Michael hit Oct. 10 that he was indefinitely suspending campaign trail appearances in his Senate bid against Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson so he could focus on storm recovery. The decision dovetailed with what one Republican insider had groused was a ‘keep away from Trump’ strategy, in which the governor appeared with the president at official office events, but not overtly political rallies. Read more

— Trump added a Nov. 3 Saturday stop in Pensacola to his schedule.

ALL TIED UP — CBS released its online Battleground Tracker poll from YouGov that shows what we’ve always known would be the case in the final days of the Florida midterm: the race for U.S. Senate is tied and the governor’s race is essentially tied (a 1-point lead for Gillum over DeSantis). The tie Senate race is particularly interesting in that Gov. Rick Scott gets far higher approval ratings for handling storm recovery when compared to Sen. Nelson (63 percent for Scott and 41 percent for Nelson). We wrote last week about how odd it is that Scott didn’t get a bump after Hurricane Michael.

NOT QUITE ALL TIED UP — A New York Times/Siena College poll found Nelson over Scott, 48 percent to 44 percent. Gillum led DeSantis, 48 percent to 43 percent.

TRAIL MIX

BIDEN 4 BARZEE FLORES — Former Vice President Joe Biden threw his support behind Mary Barzee Flores in her FL-25 race against incumbent Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart. In a statement, Biden said that, “President Obama nominated Mary to the U.S. District Court because of her commitment to service...” but, “Petty partisan politics denied [her] a seat on the bench” (a reference to Marco Rubio blocking Barzee Flores’ nomination).

YANKED — “Political ad created by veterans’ group attacking Lauren Baer pulled from airwaves,” by TCPalm's Ali Schmitz: “An attack ad created by a bipartisan pro-veterans’ PAC supporting Rep. Brian Mast’s re-election bid was pulled from the airwaves Thursday, after a board member from the group publicly announced his resignation because of the ad’s content and criticism from progressive veterans. The ad, which was paid by With Honor Fund, a group that supports a bipartisan group of veterans running for public office, selectively quotes from a column Baer wrote for Harvard College’s student newspaper after the 9/11 attacks.” Read more

IMMIGRATION WARS — If the CBS poll referenced above is right, it’s confirmation that immigration might be a losing issue for Democrats — even in immigrant-heavy Florida. In the poll, 43 percent say the immigrants on Central American caravan are a potential threat to Florida (38 percent say they’re not), and 36 percent say immigrants from Mexico and Latin America make life in Florida worse compared to 26 percent who say they make life better in the state. Only 12 percent say Democrats put the interest of long-term U.S. residents above immigrants compared to 50 percent who say Democrats favor migrants more. But 72 percent say Republicans favor Americans over migrants, and only 9 percent say the GOP favors migrants more.

HEALTH WARS — The top issue in all the polls, including CBS’s, is health care — and Democrats are winning that argument. On Medicare funding and policy, Democrats are trusted more than Republicans, 44 percent to 38 percent. Voters back Medicare for all, 49 percent to 36 percent. Also, 72 percent support providing coverage at no additional cost for people pre-existing conditions, 23 percent say the coverage should be required but insurance companies should be allowed to charge more. Seventy-one percent say Democrats would cover preexisting conditions at no additional cost, only 40 percent say that of Republicans and 49 percent say Republicans would let insurance companies charge more or cancel coverage.

WELL ... — “Hey, Kelsey Grammer! If Amendment 6 were in place in Florida, as many as 27 innocent people would now be dead,” by Sun Sentinel's Editorial Board: Read more

… TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP …

MIAMI MAN — If there were ever proof that all Carl Hiaasen does is change the names of the South Floridians in his novels, Cesar Sayoc is the word made flesh: A serial fabricator, a former male stripper, a failed dry cleaner, a fake Seminole Tribe member, a petty criminal who somehow avoided felony charges (until now), an anti-gay bigot, a “gentlemen’s club” DJ, a former pizza delivery guy who drove around in a Trumped-out MAGA wagon in which he both lived and allegedly made explosive devices he mailed to Democrats, misspelling names and leaving his fingerprint on one of the packages along the way. And, of course, he lived in Miami (well, the 56-year-old was registered to vote at his mom’s Aventura condo). The Miami Herald has a nice read on how this misfit fit in here ...

— “Bombing suspect Cesar Sayoc, lost and angry, found his tribe with Trump,” by Miami Herald’s Linda Robertson, Sarah Blaskey and Martin Vassolo: Read more

COGNITIVE DISSONANCE WATCH — The far-right gaslighters who call the truth “fake news” of course met the news of Sayoc’s arrest with this theory: Sayoc is a Democrat. He’s not. He’s a registered Republican. That’s according to his voter-registration application, a voter audit by the county and a database query we performed with a copy of the Florida voter file provided to us by the state in August, before he was arrested or allegedly sent any bombs. Another bit of lunacy: Sayoc’s vehicle had to be a fake because the pro-Trump Republican/anti-Democrat stickers in his van windows would’ve faded in the South Florida sun. Turns out, various South Floridians snapped pictures of it before he was arrested.

— “Mail bomb suspect appeared to be fervent Trump supporter,” by POLITICO’s Rebecca Morin: Read more

— “Trump fumes after mail bomber ‘interrupts’ his campaign message,” by POLITICO’s Ben Schreckinger and Gabby Orr: Read more

— “Feds widen search for others who may have helped the South Florida mail-bomb suspect,” by Miami Herald’s Jay Weaver: Read more

— “Trump at pains to reconcile campaign message with violent events,” by Yahoo News’ David Knowles: Read more

— “The backstory to tracing the mail bombs: How USPS keeps ‘metadata’ on all your mail,” by Washington Examiner’s Erin Dunne: Read more

— “Wasserman Schultz: ‘Bastard’ who sent mail bombs doesn’t represent character of South Florida,” by Sun Sentinel's Anthony Man: Read more

— “Stripper, bodybuilder, bigot: The life of bomb suspect Cesar Sayoc,” by Sun Sentinel's David Schutz, Dan Sweeney, Paula McMahon and Rafael Olmeda: Read more

SLOPPY STEVE — “Steve Bannon speaks to Hillsborough GOP, but big names stay away,” by Tampa Bay Times’ William March: Read more

CLOSING IN? — “Text Messages Show Roger Stone Was Working to Get a Pardon for Julian Assange,” by Mother Jones' Dan Friedman: Read more

DAILY SHOW COMES TO TOWN — “‘The Donald J. Trump Presidential Twitter Library' has arrived in Miami Beach. Here is a look inside," by Johnny Diaz: Read more

THE SLIME

RECORD BREAKING — “Do state pollution controls work? Record phosphorus flow into Lake Okeechobee casts doubt,” by TCPalm's Tyler Treadway: “One state report paints a rosy picture: The amount of phosphorus, a fertilizer that feeds algae blooms, entering Lake Okeechobee is declining. Another is more dire: The amount of phosphorus entering Lake Okeechobee hit an all-time high in 2017. Who’s right? Turns out the first report, by the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, is based on computer modeling and assumptions that ‘best management practices’ are being used and achieving their best-possible results.” Read more

RED CLOUD — “Red tide looms over Space Coast weekend,” by Florida Today’s Jim Waymer: Read more







PENINSULA AND BEYOND

SUNSHING STATE(HOOD) — “Puerto Rico’s governor wants statehood. He thinks Florida’s the key to getting it,” by Miami Herald’s Andres Viglucci: “Before Hurricane Maria struck the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico with devastating consequences, eight out of 10 Americans had no clue island residents were their fellow citizens. Now, thanks to Maria, more than 90 percent know it, Puerto Rico’s governor says surveys show. That sharp upgrade in Americans’ knowledge about the island marks a potentially consequential turning point in its relationship with the 50 states, Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rosselló said Friday in Miami — a tie that he says is marked by unequal rights for residents of the territory in spite of their U.S. citizenship.” Read more

MORE PROBLEMS — “Hurricane Michael Damage Leads To Evictions, Housing Crisis In Panama City,” by WFSU's Lynn Hatter: “In storm-ravaged Panama City, a new crisis is emerging: Housing. Across the city, evictions are taking place as apartment complexes and rental units are condemned. Many of these are rent-controlled and income-based, and that’s leaving hundreds of people scrambling for places to go. For some, there’s nowhere to go. The Housing Authority says half of its 600 units have been damaged by the storm. Its phones are down, and its directing residents to reach out to FEMA. It’s also told people they have only days to leave. The Housing Authority serves poor residents. Many of whom cannot afford to just pack up and go.” Read more

OUT — “Gainesville works to phase out prison labor for city clean-up,” by Gainesville Sun's Andrew Caplan: “A small group of prison inmates take to different parts of Gainesville every few days to pick up trash and cut grass. They aren’t paid for their time. Money goes to the Florida Department of Corrections instead. Across the country, protests and much debate has been made about how inmates are treated while incarcerated. There are concerns of price gouging for commissary items while companies and governments continue to use inmates for cheap labor, which some say is immoral and akin to slavery.” Read more

GRAVE INCREASE — “Hurricane Michael killed at least 35 in Florida, 45 total,” by AP: “Florida authorities have linked six more deaths to Hurricane Michael, raising the state’s death toll to 35. The storm’s overall death toll now stands at 45, with 10 deaths in other states. Florida Emergency Management Division spokesman Alberto Moscoso said in an email Saturday that two more deaths were confirmed in hard-hit coastal Bay County, raising the total there to 21.” Read more

MEET THE GENERAL — “How a 2-star Army general took charge of a broken city,” by AP’s Tamara Lush: Read more

NO ROOM AT THE INN — “Only one hotel accepting FEMA vouchers in Panama City Beach,” by Daily News’ Eileen Kelley: Read more

ODDS, ENDS, AND FLORIDA MEN

BAD CAT — “Panther attacks on pets, livestock continue in Golden Gate Estates,” by Naples Daily News’ Jake Allen: Read more

PACKING HEAT — “Police: Pilot had loaded gun in suitcase at Florida airport,” by AP: Read more

WUT? — “Panel upholds sex-for-speed bumps case against Florida mayor," by AP:“An ethics panel has found probable cause against a Florida mayor accused of soliciting sex from a resident in exchange for installing speed bumps in her neighborhood. In a statement Wednesday, the Florida Commission on Ethics said it found probable cause that Lantana Mayor David Stewart ‘misused his position to attempt to obtain a sexual benefit for himself.’” Read more

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