Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the St. Louis Cardinals. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Giants / Mets / Nationals / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox.

Batters

The Cardinals have a number of hitters who’ve posted above-average offensive numbers over the last three years on the strength of high batting averages on balls in play. David Freese (.359 BABIP, 1200 PA), Jon Jay (.348, 1328), Matt Holliday (.333, 1879), and Allen Craig (.329, 857): each has posted a ball-in-play figure considerably above league average (which typically falls in the .290-.300 range).

The production of high BABIPs certainly can be a skill; however, as Dan Szymborski suggested recently with regard to Detroit’s Austin Jackson (who’s also posted high ball-play-numbers), it takes rather a large sample for that skill to reveal itself in the numbers. Accordingly, the ZiPS projections are going to appear conservative for players whose offensive value has been informed more considerably by his batted-ball profile.

Pitchers

Injuries have affected the Cardinals’ top-three starters considerably in recent years. Tommy John surgery, of course, prevented Adam Wainwright from pitching at all in 2011. Nerve and shoulder issues limited Chris Carpenter to just three regular-season starts in 2012. Jaime Garcia missed probably a little more than a third of his starts in 2012, as well, with shoulder trouble. ZiPS doesn’t know any of those details precisely, of course; what it does know is that the staff’s innings have been curtailed.

In light of Lance Lynn’s 2012 season, which saw him post a 180:64 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 92 xFIP-, and 2.9 WAR in 176.0 innings, his projection here might seem rather lacking in generosity. It’s worth noting, however, that he’s been considerably more proficient in his brief major-league career than he really ever was as a minor leaguer (which he was up to, and including much of, 2011). In 414.1 minor-league innings, Lynn posted strikeout and walk rates of 7.8 and 3.3, respectively, per nine innings. As a major leaguer, in fewer (210.2) innings, he’s posted strikeout and walk rates of 9.4 and 3.2, respectively, per nine innings. It’s generally not the case that pitchers’ raw numbers improve with a promotion to a higher level.

Bench/Prospects

The Cardinals’ young talent is the most noteworthy aspect of these ZiPS forecasts. Two of the club’s top-five field players by projected WAR, Oscar Taveras (2.6) and Kolten Wong (2.3), are likely to begin 2013 in the minors — probably at Triple-A Memphis, in both cases. It’s entirely possible — at just 21 and 22 years old, respectively — that their aging curves will bring them into All-Star territory before very long. Shortstops Greg Garcia and Ryan Jackson, meanwhile, both profile as competent infield depth — not a distinction to be overlooked. And while both scouting reports and ZiPS ask questions about the former’s (i.e. Garcia’s) defensive ability at short, he’s also young enough to improve his overall game at this point.

There are encouraging signs among the the Cardinals’ pitching prospects, as well. Per ZiPS, all three from Joe Kelly, Shelby Miller, and Trevor Rosenthal are capable of throwing something similar to league-average innings as a starter. With the relative fragility of the rotation, that hypothetical might become a reality.

Depth Chart

Here’s a rough depth chart for the Cardinals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.