If their candidate’s website is anything to go by, the answer is yes. ‘I’m the only candidate at this by-election with a clear plan to secure our area’s future’ says Giles Watling, just six months out of date:

Eric Pickles cancelled a visit at the last minute last week – and UKIP sources report a complete lack of Tory presence trying to win back the seat. Guido hears that the results of a survey put out in the constituency by the Conservatives were so dire for the party that they decided to divert resources elsewhere…

Sorry Dan:

@reporterboy @colinwforster Carswell won't hold that seat in 2015. MPs get a personal vote but not enough to overturn 53% Tory vote. — (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) August 28, 2014

Nigel Farage is in Clacton today visiting a hinge factory – insert your own jokes here – yet it’s clear there’s not going to be much of a swing back to the Tories in May. The same cannot be said of Rochester, however…