Since Joni Ernst won the June primary, Bruce Braley and his allies have outspent her. GOP frets over Harkin seat

Few states are more important than Iowa in the battle for the Senate this fall. But anxiety is rising within Republican ranks that deep-pocketed conservative donors and outside groups are not doing enough, as Democrats outspend them by millions of dollars to retain the seat of retiring liberal Sen. Tom Harkin.

Since GOP nominee Joni Ernst won the June primary, Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley and his allies have outspent Ernst and her supporters by more than $2.1 million, $9.2 million to $7 million. Democratic groups have reserved $10.8 million for the final six weeks of the race, compared to $8.3 million for Republican groups, according to sources tracking the air war.


Meanwhile, interest groups from the left are piling on. Two more plan to launch fresh attack ads against Ernst on Monday: The League of Conservation Voters has reserved $744,170 for the next two weeks, and Planned Parenthood Votes has reserved half a million dollars for the same period.

( POLITICO’s 2014 race ratings)

Republicans need to pick up six seats to flip control of the chamber — and with three a safe bet, Iowa is one of a handful of tossup races that could be majority makers for the GOP. The focus on the race comes as the political world descends on Iowa this weekend for the final Harkin Steak Fry, a Democratic cattle call for politicians from the Hawkeye State and beyond.

The Democratic onslaught has taken a toll on Ernst’s image. While Braley is viewed favorably by 48 percent and unfavorably by 43 percent in a new CNN/ORC International poll released on Friday, Ernst is treading water, viewed favorably by 47 percent and unfavorably by 47 percent. For context, the same poll shows Barack Obama’s job approval rating at 39 percent, with 58 percent disapproving.

Republican operative Don McDowell, a manager of grassroots efforts for the pro-Ernst Iowa Farm Bureau, published a stream of tweets Friday that said “people are getting anxious.” He explained that he has “no doubt” Braley is now slightly ahead and added that “more aggressive messaging by Ernst allies would help.”

( On POLITICO Magazine: So long, steak fry)

“Time to crank it up,” he tweeted. “Take gloves off! … Need to turn it up.”

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has spent or reserved $3.4 million in Iowa airtime. But there is particular frustration across the GOP establishment with the outside group Senate Conservatives Fund, which backed Ernst in the GOP primary but has yet to reserve any airtime to help out in the fall.

Democrats say it’s not as much about the spending disparity as the conservative positions that Ernst staked out to win the primary.

Braley’s candidacy has been marked by a series of gaffes. Most memorably, he was caught on camera at a fundraiser with trial lawyers warning that Iowa’s Chuck Grassley, “a farmer from Iowa who never went to law school,” could become chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee if Republicans win the majority. The congressman shook up his campaign this summer, replacing his pollster and admaker.

( POLITICO’s Polling Center)

Braley’s allies stress that he has also been getting hammered with attack ads — many over absences from House Veterans Affairs Committee hearings in the House and support for Obamacare.

After a few straight weeks of getting outspent, half-million dollar buys this past week from both American Crossroads and the NRSC gave the GOP a $400,000 advantage, $1.7 million to $1.3 million, between Sept. 8-14.

Three Koch-linked groups have invested substantially. Concerned Veterans for America has already spent $2.5 million, Americans for Prosperity put in $1.2 million earlier in the summer and Freedom Partners (through two separate entities) has spent around $835,000.

But looking at past spending and reservations through November, Democrats have the edge. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is in for $8 million and the Senate Majority PAC has earmarked $5.7 million.

“We need all hands on deck to help Joni fight back against the Democratic machine and their special interest cash, from Hollywood, Tom Steyer and Harry Reid,” said the NRSC’s Brad Dayspring.

Not on the board for the home stretch is Senate Conservatives Fund, which spent heavily during the primary season — mostly on losing candidates. Many players in Iowa and Washington are annoyed that the group is not more involved.

An SCF official said they have plans to help Ernst but declined to elaborate. The group has helped her raise $175,000 in hard money that she can spend on her own and said it already spent $261,000 on independent expenditures. This includes renting email lists to ask donors to give money for Ernst.

“We will continue to help get Joni across the finish line,” a spokeswoman said. “If there is a lack of resources in Iowa in the final weeks, the GOP establishment will only have themselves to blame.”

While the race is tight, the CNN numbers highlight the importance of each side’s get-out-the-vote effort. While Braley led by 1 point among “likely” voters, he was up 8 points among the broader sample of registered voters polled, 50 percent to 42 percent. Democrats stress that they are investing in a field program to try expanding the electorate. There’s heavy emphasis right now on pushing sporadic voters to request absentee ballots they can mail in.

The new CNN poll also showed a massive gender gap: Ernst leads by 15 points among men (56-41), and Braley leads by 16 points among women (57-41).

On Tuesday night, Wal-Mart paid for a political focus group with 10 mothers in Des Moines who are likely to vote in November. Six of the women at the focus group — organized by Public Opinion Strategies and Purple Strategies — were leaning toward Braley, and four backed or leaned toward Ernst.

But everyone agreed that the race has been “ugly.” One participant characterized it as a choice between “the lesser of two evils.”

The group had little impression of Braley, including that he is a congressman, but they had heard quite a lot about Ernst.

“She rides a Harley,” said Debra, a 45-54 year old divorcee with two kids who voted for Obama in 2012. “She inseminates [ sic] pigs.”

A woman named Renee, who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, said she plans to vote for Braley.

“It really comes down to all the negative ads I’ve seen about Joni,” she said.