The three ballot proposals that Michigan voters will face on Nov. 6 — legalizing marijuana, changing the way state and federal legislative district lines are drawn, and providing easier access to voting — are all on a path to victory, according to a new poll commissioned by the Detroit Free Press and its media partners.

The biggest shift in support came on Proposal 2 — the anti-gerrymandering proposal, which went from tenuous support with a 48-32 percent margin in September to a 59-29 percent lead in the latest poll, done by the Lansing-based polling firm EPIC/MRA.

“That’s what happens when you do the advertising that they started doing,” said Bernie Porn, president of EPIC/MRA. “They have managed to simplify their messaging on a very complicated issue.”

The proposal would shift the task of redrawing Michigan’s state and federal legislative lines from the political party in power in the state Legislature to a 13-member citizen commission that would be made up of four Republicans, four Democrats and five independents. The final map would have to get approval from a majority of the commission, including at least two Republicans and two Democrats.

"People in Michigan want change. They want politicians who are accountable and that don't gerrymander their voting districts. When people know what Proposal 2 does, they overwhelmingly support it,” said Katie Fahey, executive director of Voters Not Politicians, which is heading the campaign to end gerrymandering. “We will do everything we can in the remaining days to tell every person in this state why voting YES on Proposal 2 is the right thing to do — regardless of which party or candidate they support.”

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The group has been airing commercials on television for a couple of weeks and even has the commercial playing on video screens embedded on gas station pumps.

Those numbers could tighten in the final days of the campaign since the opposition’s political action committee — Protect My Vote — began airing ads this week that portray the proposal as an expensive alternative to the status quo in which elected state politicians in power draw the lines.

“The poll isn’t surprising given that the supporters had a head start on sharing their message, but we’ve had an active campaign over the last week to 10 days,” said Tony Daunt, executive director of the Michigan Freedom Fund, which is helping bankroll the ad campaign. “Given the blank check nature of the proposal, as that message reaches more individuals, it will resonate quickly.”

The cost for the commission would be about $5.5 million a year for every year the commission is active, which would generally be about two years surrounding the once-every-10-years U.S. Census.

Legalizing marijuana for recreational use

Proposal 1, to legalize marijuana for adult recreational use, also is favored by wide margins — 57-41 percent — in the latest poll. But that is nearly unchanged from the Free Press poll taken in September, which had the issue passing 56-41 percent.

“Even though there are some law-enforcement groups and others that are putting out information against the proposal, it seems to have pretty solid support,” Porn said. “There has always been a perception that there are far too many people in jail for a minimal amount of use and that it prohibits the police from spending time on more serious crimes.”

Josh Hovey, spokesman for the Coalition to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol, which is spearheading the legalization campaign, said “the public recognizes that prohibition causes more harm than the product itself and that regulation and taxation is the way we need to go.”

But Scott Greenlee, director of Healthy and Productive Michigan, which opposes the measure, said other polls by some media organizations — or paid for by anti-legalization groups — show a much closer race.

“Polls are always interesting things. We learned that in the 2016 elections, didn’t we?” he said. “That’s not the feel we have on the ground.”

The group has been knocking on doors, making phone calls and began airing a television ad on cable stations this week, talking about the dangers of high-potency marijuana. It includes Gordon MacDougall of Ludington, whose son was killed in a car crash after smoking a concentrated form of marijuana.

Michigan voters legalized marijuana for medical use in 2008 and the state started regulating and taxing marijuana products earlier this summer. The medical industry is expected to generate more $700 million in sales a year and if the recreational proposal passes, that number is expected to grow beyond $1 billion in sales.

The fact that Canada legalized marijuana for adult recreational use on Oct. 17 could also have an impact on the final vote, Porn said.

“There are a lot of other states and now our neighbors to the north, Canada, who have already accepted it,” he said.

The proposal had support in nearly every region in the state except for up north, and in all age brackets, except for people 65 or older. It also got double-digit support from Democrats and independents, but lost among Republicans surveyed in the poll by a 39-59 percent margin.

Making it easier to vote

Proposal 3, which would make registering to vote and actually casting ballots easier, has widespread support throughout the state, passing 68-26 percent. That’s down slightly from the 70-24 percent margin in the September poll. But the measure scored large winning margins in every region in the state, among all age groups and from both men and women. The closest tally in the survey was 48-44 percent support from Republicans.

The measure would allow voters to cast absentee ballots for any reason; provide the option of straight-ticket voting; allow a citizen to register to vote up to and on Election Day, and require post-election audits.

The Legislature has considered bills for many of the ideas included in the ballot proposal, but they’ve always stalled without getting a final vote. In general, Democrats have supported expanding access to voting while many Republicans have opposed the measure, citing the possibility of voter fraud.

“Prop 3 is good government,” Porn said. “People don’t like to be prohibited or limited in their ability to vote.”

Todd Cook, campaign manager for Promote the Vote, which supports the proposal, said the diversity of support across all demographics is encouraging and heartening.

"It shows that people understand these common-sense reforms that reduce barriers to voting and increase security of elections."

The organization started airing commercials on radio and network television Thursday and has been knocking on doors and calling voters to advocate for the proposal.

"And we're spending a lot of time to make sure that people who have their absentee ballots turn them in and vote the whole ballot," Cook said.

While some Republicans have expressed concerns about the proposal, there is no organized opposition running ads against Proposal 3.

The Free Press poll of 600 likely voters was conducted by live interviewers between Oct. 18 and Tuesday. Of those sampled, 30 percent were cellphone users. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Contact Kathleen Gray: 313-223-4430, kgray99@freepress.com or on Twitter @michpoligal.