One of the more noticeable changes for Royals fans has been the rearranging of the Royals bullpen, more specifically the back end. Last season, Kelvin Herrera took over the set up man position after Davis was promoted to closer. Herrera has sat as next in line behind Davis for most of the last 2 plus seasons. He has a dominating fastball which averaged a tick over 97 miles per hour in 2015 according to fangraphs. He strikes out a shade below a batter per inning over his career and last season managed to earn a spot on the All-Star team.

Bottom line: Kelvin Hererra is a very good reliever. So why has he seemingly lost his spot to a guy with a higher ERA than him?

During the off-season, General Manager Dayton Moore brought back former Royals closer and longtime fan favorite Joakim Soria. During his pervious tenure in Kansas City, Soria became a dominant force. He had a 2.01 ERA from 2007 thru 2010 and struck out nearly 10 batters per nine innings while winning not only the heart and souls of Royals fans, but also the closer position as well. He was the lone bright spot on struggling Royals squads during several of those seasons and made the All-Star team in both 2008 and 2010. Soria was let go by the Royals when he was forced to undergo the knife for his second Tommy John Surgery. Upon recovery, he was snatched up by the Texas Rangers for a 2 year deal worth $8 million. At the time, this was considered to be a lot of money for a reliever who would take some time to get back on his feet.

Over the next two seasons, he would compile a 3.44 ERA over 68 innings. Certainly not bad, but no where near the dominant results he amassed while at the back end of the Royals pen. His struggles were mostly highlighted by the fact he walked over 5 batters per 9 innings in 2013, which is not surprising considering command is usually the last things to come back after the long layoff. His strikeout numbers, while not quite as good as prior, were still excellent however and he managed to begin righting the ship in 2014.

In 2014 and 2015, Soria would begin returning to the dominant reliever he once was. He has actually managed to surpass Herrera in most statistical areas as a matter of fact. He has a higher strikeout rate, lower walk rate and better xFIP. According to fangraphs, both pitchers were worth 1.8 WAR cumulatively, mainly due to the fact that Herrera managed to throw an addition 28 innings compared to Soria over the same span. (See Comparison below courtesy of Fangraphs)

While the two pitchers have managed to be somewhat equal in terms of results, how they managed to OBTAIN those results has been far different. Herrera has been almost exclusively a high heat sort of guy. And quite frankly, why not. Over the course of his career, he has AVERAGED over 97 miles per hour on his fastball and has crossed over the 100mph threshold many times. His highest velocity pitch came in 2012 according to fangraphs and clocked in just shy of 103 miles per hour. You don't need much else if you can command that sort of fastball.

Herrera has been know to also throw a changeup that still clocks in at an average of 87 miles per hour. For comparison sake, Soria tops out in the low 90's with his fastball. He will occasionally reach mid 90's, but for the most part manages to keep hitters off balance with a mixture of pitches, speeds and location. In 2015, Soria had an arsenal of pitches including primarily (but not limited to) a fastball, curveball, slider, cutter and occasional changeup.

Given the power arms at the back end of the Royals bullpen, Soria actually looks like a very nice option to place ahead of Wade Davis, who employs both power and deception into his repertoire. With a more complete stable of pitches than Herrera and better advanced statistics than Herrera, Soria becomes both an upgrade in the 8th inning and a change of pace all at the same time. Soria may have had a higher ERA over the span of 2 seasons, but much of that can be attributed to NOT playing in front of the best defenses in all of baseball. Soria's ability should play very well with this Kansas City squad. His previous two clubs, Detroit and Texas were by no means BAD defensive teams, but the Royals accumulated nearly TWICE the number of defensive runs saved (56.9) as the second best team in MLB (Giants, 30.2). It will make a difference.

So far in 2016, this plan has not worked out so well for the Royals. Soria has relied mainly on his fastball and slider, and has not gotten the results they had hoped in the early going. Soria has pitched in 3 games, a total of 2.2 innings and has allowed 4 runs. He managed to allow only 19 runs in ALL of 2015. There certainly is no need to panic, but it is undeniable he is struggling, already allowing a run or more in 2 of his 3 outings.

One thing the Royals front office has shown the ability to do is make the right choice when change is needed. If Soria falters, there is no doubt that the tried and trusted arm of Herrera will once again precede Wade Davis. In the mean time however, Soria provides the Royals and fans with something to watch. With his contract and track record, he will be given a fair amount of rope before any changes will be made, but keep an eye out. Right now based on the OVERALL numbers it looks like he is in the right spot, but that could change in a hurry.

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