Pro-life activists try to block the sign of a pro-choice activist during the 2018 March for Life on Jan. 19 outside the Supreme Court. | Alex Wong/Getty Images Anti-abortion groups rally around Trump’s SCOTUS pick

President Donald Trump’s pick for the U.S. Supreme Court is a Republican stalwart who’s argued for strict limits on abortion and forcefully opposed Obamacare’s birth control mandate, setting up a bruising confirmation battle that will center on the future of Roe v. Wade and the health care law.

D.C. Circuit Judge Brett Kavanaugh, announced Monday night as Trump’s nominee to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy, has toed a delicate line on abortion and Obamacare cases over more than a decade on the bench, favoring precedent and compromise over fiery proclamations.


His penchant for judicial restraint — once hailed as Kavanaugh’s key attribute — had raised concerns among some conservatives during the run-up to Monday's announcement. But they rallied around Kavanaugh on Monday evening, acknowledging the Supreme Court opening is a once-in-a-generation chance to overturn Roe and shift the nation’s highest court further to the right.

“I have great hope that ... now there may be five judges to allow states under the authority of the 10th Amendment, to enact their own [policies] into law on the abortion issue,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the anti-abortion group Susan B. Anthony List.

Kavanaugh has passed up opportunities in legal opinions to stake out a position on the landmark 1973 decision establishing a constitutional right to abortion. And some conservative critics before the announcement raised fresh concerns about comments he made 12 years ago pledging to follow Roe, calling it the “binding precedent of the court.”

“I would follow Roe v. Wade faithfully and fully,” Kavanaugh said during his 2006 confirmation hearing for the D.C. appellate court. “It’s been reaffirmed many times.”

But anti-abortion activists seem convinced by the pick. Concerned Women for America, Priests for Life and March for Life, all of which oppose abortion, issued quick statements of support for Kavanaugh, too.

"If every self-avowed pro-life senator votes the right way, Judge Kavanaugh will be confirmed easily," Dannenfelser said.

Trump made a campaign-trail pledge that he’d only nominate Supreme Court justices who are “pro life” — a label conservatives interpret as willing to overturn the abortion precedent. The lack of a record could make Kavanaugh an easier confirmation vote for two key Republican moderates, Sens. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, but draw harsher scrutiny from conservatives during his confirmation process.

“Justice Kavanaugh would be a moderate constitutionalist somewhere between Justice Kennedy and Chief Justice Roberts,” Phillip Jauregi, president of the conservative Judicial Action Group, wrote in a June memo backing Judge Amy Coney Barrett for the open seat. “Kavanaugh may be a decent nominee, but this present opportunity demands more than ‘decent’ — it demands our best.”

Abortion rights supporters warned that the future of Roe is on the line, citing Trump’s campaign statements.

"We already know how Brett Kavanaugh would rule on Roe v. Wade, because the president told us so," said Dawn Laguens, executive vice president of the Planned Parenthood Federation of America. "We take Trump at his word that Brett Kavanaugh would overturn Roe v. Wade and get rid of the Affordable Care Act."

POLITICO Pulse newsletter Get the latest on the health care fight, every weekday morning — in your inbox. Email Sign Up By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Several abortion-related lawsuits are already percolating in the lower courts. The Supreme Court justices could soon have opportunities to weigh in on a common second trimester abortion procedure or on whether a woman can get an abortion after a fetus is diagnosed with an abnormality. Both are key issues that could reopen the debate over the Roe ruling and the future of abortion rights.

Obamacare could also come back before the Supreme Court within a few years. Democrats hope those issues can galvanize grassroots opposition to Trump’s nominee and rally support for Democratic candidates in the November midterms.

A former lawyer on the Whitewater investigation and later in the George W. Bush White House, Kavanaugh is already drawing fire from Democrats who note he’s never revealed his personal opinion on Roe. They argue he’s an automatic vote for state laws chipping away at abortion access and maintain he would ultimately vote to strike down Roe if given the opportunity.

Still, Kavanaugh’s conservative critics question whether he’ll be eager to supply the vote that tips the court to the right on divisive, far-reaching issues like abortion. That uncertainty mobilized corners of the GOP against Kavanaugh in the run-up to Trump’s decision.

In one closely watched case last year, Kavanaugh wrote a strong rebuke of a D.C. appellate court ruling that allowed a 17-year-old undocumented immigrant to obtain an abortion, decrying the decision a “radical extension of the Supreme Court’s abortion jurisprudence.”

However, conservative critics took notice that he declined to sign onto another dissenting opinion declaring that undocumented minors had no constitutional right to an abortion.

Kavanaugh penned a similarly stringent defense of religious organizations’ objections to Obamacare’s requirement that health plans offer contraception coverage.

“When the Government forces someone to take an action contrary to his or her sincere religious belief,” Kavanaugh wrote, ”or else suffer a financial penalty (which here is huge), the Government has substantially burdened the individual’s exercise of religion.”

But it wasn’t enough for ardent conservatives. Kavanaugh’s opinion left the door open for the government to play a role in ensuring contraception access, his critics noted, once again leaving them wondering just far he would advance conservatives’ agenda on key social issues.

Kavanaugh is also likely to receive attention on his decisions in Obamacare challenges, including one which his opponents say drew the roadmap for the Supreme Court to ultimately affirm the health care law‘s constitutionality in 2012.

Kavanaugh had ruled a year earlier that Obamacare’s individual mandate wasn’t ripe for a legal challenge until someone paid the penalty for not purchasing coverage. Critics say that cleared the way for Chief Justice John Roberts to split with his conservative colleagues and declare the individual mandate constitutional through Congress’ taxing powers, saving Obamacare from its most formidable challenge yet.

More recently, Kavanaugh sided with the Obama administration in another challenge to the law, concluding in 2015 that Congress went through the proper legislative procedure in passing Obamacare.

A new legal challenge to Obamacare still in early stages could eventually offer Kavanaugh the chance to be the deciding vote to significantly damage a law the GOP has spent years trying to kill. Texas and other states have filed a lawsuit arguing that the elimination of Obamacare’s individual mandate — which the GOP largely repealed in their tax law — means that the rest of the health care law cannot stand.

The lower courts have not yet ruled on the case, but Attorney General Jeff Sessions has weighed in on the side of those states, calling for key portions of the health law including popular protection for pre-existing conditions to be struck.

Jennifer Haberkorn contributed to this report.