Welcome to The Tip Sheet, a daily political analysis of the 2018 elections, based on interviews with Republican and Democratic officials, pollsters, strategists and voters.

• Follow updates from around the country on Saturday here.

Where things stand

• A consensus is emerging among Democratic and Republican strategists — based on public and private polling, early voting and likely turnout — that Democrats are on track to pick up about 35 seats in the House of Representatives in Tuesday’s elections. Republicans now have a 23-seat House majority.

• There’s anxiety about that number on both sides. Democrats don’t want expectations rising for a massive wave which many in the party still doubt is coming. And Republicans don’t want a mood of despair to set in when they believe there’s still a chance they could hang on.

• But the number does reflect the reality of polls in suburban districts as well as the tenacity of some Republicans in exurban districts, who would have to lose in order for Democrats to win more than 40 seats.