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Highlights

There are a variety of reports stating that violent crime is increasing in the United States. They are summarized below.

Criminal justice advocates disagree and insist that violence is decreasing. Who is correct?

Author

Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.

Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of criminology and public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Aspiring drummer.

Article

There are numerous reports as to violent crime rising in the United States. New data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association is below along with summations of additional reports

Advocates Disagree

The pushback from advocates is severe because, in their minds, any discussion of increasing violent crime threatens criminal justice reform. While reasonable people can disagree as to numbers, there seems to be a pattern of growing violence. A dedication to fairness regarding the data doesn’t matter; if you suggest growing violent crime, you are less than human.

You could support a wide array of criminal justice reforms, which I and many fellow political centrists do, but that doesn’t matter; you’re whale scum if you are not an ideological purist. You HAVE to drink the Kool-Aid. There are many additional examples of advocacy dysfunction by ignoring an evidence-based approach, like the current discussion as to growing violence.

Have Past Record Lows for Violent Crime Ended?

I get whiplash writing this; it seems that every month brings new and confounding data.

The answer as to record lows for violent crime ending is “possibly” (per the National Crime Survey for 2018 and Gallup), but the bottom line is that violent and property crimes are still at lows for the country and, generally speaking, have been decreasing for the last two decades except for recent years (since 2015) with mixed results from the two main Department of Justice sources and Gallup.

The principal reason for any confusion is the increase in “all” violent crime as measured by the National Crime Survey (an increase in violent crime of 28 percent from 2015-2018), and measures of “reported” crime compiled from local law enforcement agencies via the FBI.

Per the FBI, violent crime increased in 2015 and 2016 but decreased slightly in 2017 (violence was essentially flat) and 2018 (a decrease of 3.3 percent). It decreased by 3.1 percent for the first half of 2019.

There have been additional increases since 2000; the rate of violent crime in the US increased in 2005 and 2006 (via FBI data) but the index returned to decreases in 2007.

Per Gallup, “Each year since 2017, 15% of U.S. adults have indicated they were victimized by crime in the past year. A subset of that, between 1% and 3%, have reported being the victim of a violent crime.” One percent of Americans were victimized by violent crime in 2016. That tripled to three percent in 2019. 2019 is the first year where violent crime reached three percent, Gallup.

Thus we have a fundamental question, which holds more importance, a 28 percent increase in all violent crime per the National Crime Survey (2015-2018), a tripling of violent crime per Gallup, or a 3.3 percent decrease in 2018 and a 3.1 percent decrease for the first half of 2019 for reported crime from the FBI? Source, US Crime Rates.

The 7% increase in the violent crime rate from 2014 to 2016, per FBI data, was the largest increase over a 2-year period in a quarter-century per a recent report from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, Increasing Violence.

There are endless media reports of violence being a major concern in a wide variety of American cities and metropolitan areas, Violent Cities.

Now, we have a new report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association documenting a rise in homicides and aggravated assaults.

Major Cities Chiefs Association

Per the report below, in the United States, homicides and aggravated assaults increased while rapes and robberies decreased.

But in terms of numbers, aggravated assaults collectively outweigh the other crimes measured, and they have increased.

Conclusions

You can make a point that most people use reported crimes through the FBI as the benchmark to answer the question as to whether violent crimes are increasing and per that measurement alone, you can suggest that violence decreased based on 2018 and the first six months in 2019 from the FBI.

Per the FBI, violent crime increased in 2015 and 2016 but decreased slightly in 2017 (violence was essentially flat) and 2018 (a decrease of 3.3 percent). It decreased by 3.1 percent for the first half of 2019.

But per the Major Cities Chiefs Association, reported violence increased in 2019.

But we are all aware that underreported crime is an issue.

Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the increase in the rate of violent victimizations was largely due to crimes that were not reported to police (emphasis added). From 2015 to 2018, the rate of violent victimizations that went unreported to police rose from 9.5 to 12.9 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.

Based on the 2018 National Crime Survey, less than half (43%) of violent victimizations were reported to the police. There were some statistically significant changes from 2017 to 2018 by type of violent crime reported to the police. The percentage of rape or sexual assault victimizations reported to police declined from 40% to 25%, while the percentage of robbery victimizations reported to police increased from 49% to 63%, Reported Crime.

Thus the fundamental disagreement regarding rising violence is predicated on which numbers you use; those based on reported crimes to law enforcement and those done through methodically sound polling methods via Gallup and the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the USDOJ; both are reporting dramatic increases in violence.

Advocates can scream foul all they want, but the collective data indicate increases. The media accounts on this site and others regarding escalating urban violence are endless.

Data on US fear of crime are concerning. Per Gallup, 75 percent of Americans worry about crime and violence (down from 78 percent in March 2018), which was the same as health care, the top concern, Fear of Crime.

Concerns regarding cops not being proactive because of negative publicity (some of it deserved) is data-driven and is probably having an impact on crime.

That doesn’t mean that the goals of criminal justice reform are without validity. It simply means reforms will be a harder sell within the current environment. But advocates (like climate deniers) stick their heads in the sand regarding data that doesn’t do anything to advance their cause.

Like the institutions (i.e., CBS, PBS, the movie industry) that denied the astonishing degree of violence towards women, it’s time to acknowledge the likely growing problem of violent crime.

See More

See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.

Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.

US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.

National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.

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Contact

Contact us at leonardsipes@gmail.com.

My book based on thirty-five years of criminal justice public relations,” Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization” available at Amazon

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