There’s a difference between saying a pitcher has a changeup, and saying a pitcher throws a changeup. Pretty much every pitcher has a changeup — all it takes is once or twice having messed around with the grip and the delivery. If a guy has thrown a changeup, and remembers what he did, it could be said the same guy has a changeup. But to say a guy throws a changeup — that’s something active. That says, not only does the pitcher possess a changeup in his arsenal, but he could throw it at any point. It’s a part of his approach. The pitcher has a fastball, a changeup, and a curve, say.

I don’t know where the point is where one becomes the other. I don’t know how many times a pitcher has to use a pitch before it can be said the pitch is a part of the pitcher’s attack. Here’s what I can tell you about Craig Kimbrel: for years, he’s had a changeup. Now he’s closer than ever to regularly throwing one.

We’re closer than ever to being able to say “Craig Kimbrel throws a changeup” because, at last, Craig Kimbrel threw a changeup. He actually threw a couple of them. He threw them both against the Rockies, on different days, to different hitters, in games that mattered in the real standings. This is interesting because, historically, Kimbrel doesn’t throw changeups. Just crazy good heaters and crazy good breaking balls. I can prove it, though. For example, scroll down on Kimbrel’s FanGraphs player page:

Ignore the sliders and the curveballs — that’s just re-classification from BIS. That pitch has always been there, and it’s been the same. But you see something show up in the last column. Changeups, just a couple of them, from the past year. To support the above, consider what’s found on Kimbrel’s Brooks Baseball page:

Two changeups, two-tenths of a percent. Brooks reports higher velocities because they calculate the velocities further from home plate. So BIS and Brooks seem to agree, and they also agree on the games with the two changeups in them. That’s pretty telling, but for the ultimate proof, there’s video confirmation. Here’s Derek Norris, signing to Kimbrel on August 14:

I know that’s quick and blurry and unclear, but it’s four fingers, instead of the customary one or two. Thankfully, the second changeup is even more obvious, because the Rockies broadcast happened to be paying close attention to Norris at the time. Here’s Norris not signing for the changeup:

Breaking ball, fastball in, fastball away, time out. Two fingers, one finger, one finger. After the time out, this was the sign:

Four fingers, all wiggly-like. Kimbrel agreed and got set. The following pitch was slower than a fastball, and bad. All the hallmarks there of an uncommon change.

Here’s the first changeup, as it flew:

The second one didn’t do so well:

The first was thrown in a 1-and-2 count to an opposite-handed hitter. It was five miles per hour slower than Kimbrel’s slowest fastball in the same game, and it had a few inches of extra sink. The second was thrown in a 2-and-2 count to an opposite-handed hitter. It was about four miles per hour slower than Kimbrel’s slowest fastball in the same game, and it had a few inches of extra sink. I don’t think there’s any denying this. Mayyyyybe Kimbrel was throwing some version of an ultra-two-seamer, but all the possible changeup signs are there, save for confirmation in the form of a direct quote. It’s the only thing missing.

There’s been talk about Kimbrel and a changeup before. He’ll throw it early in spring training, not really because he’s working on it, but because he uses it to try to get his mechanics down, and he doesn’t want to do that by flipping a bunch of breaking balls. That much is sensible, and in the past, Kimbrel has said he wasn’t exactly looking to introduce the change into his regular repertoire. But at least we know the arm has some reps. And at one point there was some changeup enthusiasm, as relayed by Billy Wagner:

“Craig was convinced he needed to throw a changeup. When you’re throwing upper-90s, it’s pretty hard with his arm angle to throw a consistent changeup. And you don’t want to get beat with a changeup anyway. So I was there just to say, ‘You really don’t need that.’”

When Kimbrel was a rookie, Wagner told him he didn’t need a changeup, because he already threw super hard. Surprisingly, these days, Kimbrel throws even harder. But Wagner isn’t a teammate anymore. And the changeup made an appearance. Its first two appearances in Kimbrel’s whole major-league career. I don’t know why that happened, but Kimbrel had to have something to do with it. A new pitch doesn’t just show up without at least a conversation.

Last March, I wrote about any precedents for a Craig Kimbrel changeup. The best I could find is the Aroldis Chapman changeup, which appeared and has been cruel, while also being completely unnecessary. Chapman was dominant, and then in 2014 he started mixing the occasional change in with his heater and his slider. He did the same this past year, with the change lingering in his mind from his attempts to start. Kimbrel has never started a game as a professional. Even in the minors he averaged just a little over an inning an appearance. Now a changeup could be blossoming.

And according to our records on FanGraphs, Kimbrel’s changeup would be the fastest thrown since at least 2002. It would also count as the fastest splitter, if you call the Jeurys Familia pitch a two-seamer, as it turns out the Mets do. The lines here are blurry, but you could say Kimbrel’s offspeed pitch is the game’s fastest offspeed pitch. That is, if you consider it a pitch in Kimbrel’s possession, as opposed to a pitch he tried twice and won’t try again. The specific words are up to you. The two times we’ve seen it, it was a mighty fast pitch, for a pitch that’s supposed to be — and even would be — a change of pace.

For the first time ever, Craig Kimbrel threw two changeups that counted. For a while, the Craig Kimbrel Changeup Alert System was set to 1 — no changeups on the horizon. Last spring, after a couple articles, it was bumped to 2 — potential changeups on the horizon. Now I think we’re at a 3 — meaningful changeups observed. It could be a blip, or it could be a real signal. Kimbrel doesn’t need a changeup, not yet, not as long as he’s throwing 97 with the breaking ball he has. But he might throw the pitch anyway. If it’s any good, it wouldn’t hurt. And for all I know, Kimbrel will eventually go the way of Francisco Rodriguez and turn into a changeup-flipping dynamo by his mid-30s. Pitchers always have to be adapting, even when it seems like they’re doing fine. Craig Kimbrel seems to have an idea.