The Bitcoin (BTC) anonymous analyst PlanB has stated that they do not see futures trading such as Bakkt and CME as being a threat Bitcoin. PlanB is also a creator of the most widely used prediction tool Stock-to-Flow, believes that futures markets do not pose a danger to the price of the cryptocurrency. He stated that on December 26 in his Twitter.

”Fixed” supply keeps Bitcoin up and flowing

This September Bakkt has launched physically-delivered bitcoin futures, causing a deep fall of Bitcoin markets. The matter raised speculations and theories of futures influencing markets.

Bakkt argued that its product helped to value Bitcoin, nevertheless the average daily volumes of CME futures reached $515 million in May. Such disappointing performance strenghtened the beliefs that there is something peculiar about the futures market.



In spite of this, PlanB stated, that when it comes to trading Bitcoin is not prone to the issues common to precious metals due to its essence.

”Central banks can future sell large amounts with unlimited fiat money, pushing future prices below spot (backwardation),” he said, ”but spot markets will not follow all the way, because they run out of sellers (unlike gold, supply is inelastic).”



Stock-to-Flow measures existing (stock) coins versus the new ones which are in production (the flow). The data shows that today Bitcoin has a very high Stock-to-Flow ratio, compared to that of gold, and will only increase, surpassing gold by 2025.

Any reasons to panic about futures?

PlanB said that he discussed futures market with @BitcoinTina, a great Bitcoin supporter. The two share the view on Bitcoin’s fixed supply will undermine any attempts to disrupt futures markets. Summarizing his argument, PlanB said: ”…I was talking about spot and futures prices (‘discovered’ at exchanges) that in case of commodities influence producers/supply, but not with bitcoin.”

Despite that, doubts about futures still surface. Last month Andreas Antonopoulos stated that CME futures market may lead to the the decline of the price of BTC.

Earlier criticism concerned futures that do not deal with the physical delivery of Bitcoin. Unlike witn Bakkt, raders of these do not take custody of cryptocurrency, therefore are unaware of its differences to fiat and the respective responsibilities. But even with Bakkt, several participants decided to take physical delivery of BTC instead of locking in their contracts as with regular futures contracts.