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A survey of more than 200 private nurseries has found that less than a third are likely to offer the Scottish government's recommended free hours.

Ministers have pledged to increase the number of paid-for hours for three and four-year-olds from 600 to 1,140 hours a year by 2020.

But the National Day Nurseries Association (NDNA) said the policy was "at risk" because of a lack of funding.

The Scottish government said nearly £1bn was being put into the policy.

The NDNA's annual survey, which was carried out in March and April, found confidence among private nursery providers had hit an "all-time low", with the numbers likely to offer the expanded hours dropping from 51% last year to just 30%.

The Scottish government said that since the survey was done, it had agreed a funding package of £990m with the local authority group Cosla, which would increase rates across Scotland.

The funding is due to be spent on day-to-day funding for the scheme by 2021 and is £150m more than the government's previous estimate.

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But the NDNA said more funding was needed now, warning in its report that the requirement to pay staff the real living wage would "cripple" nurseries, without extra cash.

More than three quarters of those surveyed (78%) said current funding for three and four-year-olds did not cover their costs, with an average shortfall of £1.98 per hour - equivalent to £1,188 a year per child.

Respondents expecting to make a loss rose from 12% last year to 16%, and some said they feared closure.

Just under half (46%) said they would be unlikely or very unlikely to provide 30 hours cover, compared with 24% last year.

Only 7% of respondents said they were able to meet the full 1,140 hours on current funding rates.

'Level of debt'

The NDNA has made a series of recommendations, including increasing funding rates for the current 600 hours as well as a future increase to meet the new provision.

The report states "more support" is needed, adding: "If we do not make plans and take decisions now, the 1,140 hours scheme is at risk."

NDNA chief executive Purnima Tanuku added: "NDNA has uncovered the true predicament that nurseries in Scotland find themselves in and it has reached a crisis point.

"Private nurseries just don't feel confident that sufficient funding will be passed on to providers by local authorities to make it worthwhile for them to deliver the full 1,140 hours' provision."

A total of 226 nurseries took part in the survey - about 30% of Scotland's private nurseries.

A Scottish government spokesman said: "Since this survey was carried out, the Scottish government has agreed a landmark near-£1bn funding package with Cosla, which provides for local authorities to offer fair and sustainable funding rates to private and third sector nurseries, which will significantly increase rates across Scotland and enable all childcare workers delivering the funded entitlement to be paid the Scottish living wage."

He added that the government was working with Cosla and councils to promote positive and effective partnerships with all childcare providers.