Mr. Guriev asks: "What is not clear is whether Russia’s economy can bear the burden of Putin’s objectives in Ukraine". President Putin is confident that Russia would get over any sanctions and persevere. He is willing to accept that "the economic damage to Russia will be vast". Then he knows well life in the past had never been easy for ordinary Russians except for a tiny elite. He had brought them prosperity and stabilty in the last 10 years. Now he expects them to make sacrifice, for the sake of recapturing a small piece of land.

No doubt "direct costs of military operations and of supporting the Crimean regime and its woefully inefficient economy" would be very high, yet Putin sees an incorporation of Crimea into the Russian Federation as something historic, which he can't miss. He is correcting a mistake, made 60 years ago and wants to go down in history as a restorer of the old order. The Russian soul is awakening and he he can't be logical and rational. He has to defend his quest tooth and nail. No wonder Chancellor Angela Merkel queations whether Putin is "in touch with reality".

It is notorious that Putin and his innermost circle forge Russia's destiny. The turmoil in Ukraine had taken many of them by surprise. Putin has since then adopted Napoleon's principle: "On s'engage, et puis, on voit". He acts and takes things as they come. This reckless behaviour would be tolerable, if Putin ran a family business. But he is running a country and putting its people's welware and the economy at risk.

