I’m lucky to have a best friend who challenges my world view. Before I met them, I was intelligent, and thought I knew everything, but I was laughably ignorant.

I looked at the world through rose tinted glasses. In fact, I was pretty optimistic about the state of things, and believed in the idea of the “American Dream”, but so much has changed since then.

My best friend came into my life five years ago, and pretty quickly I began to see things from a whole new perspective. Through the eyes of a Latino, immigrant, man.

There is nothing rosy about the world through those eyes.

Recently, we listened to the latest podcast of Joe Rogan and his guest, Peter Schiff, an expert economist, who paints a bleak picture of the future. (It’s his shtick). The conversation is over 2 hours, but the first hour is worth a listen if you want to hear for yourself.

Peter put it simply. Everything that’s happened in the last couple of years under the new administration, has created false optimism. The economy is not better. In fact, it’s worse, much worse, and it’s propped up temporarily, but ultimately doomed.

It will collapse under it’s weight.

We are about 3 years past due for a market correction, or what’s more likely, another recession. That’s normal. A healthy market has ups and downs, as we know, but if you listen to the podcast, you’ll understand that most of our current situation is not normal or healthy. So, we are going to face abnormal consequences like “stagflation”.

Stagnated wages + ballooning inflation = stagflation. And this makes living costs unaffordable for low-mid income brackets, who are already feeling the squeeze.

He goes on to talk about how poor the United States has become. In the past, the US was the world’s largest creditor, and subsequently, the richest nation in the world.

But, guess what? We are now the world’s largest debtor! We owe more money than any other country in the world, and most of that debt is owned by China. Our high standard of living is basically paid with IOUs, a credit card that’s never paid.

And! Our deficit has skyrocketed since taxes were cut. Because our spending, which should have decreased, has gone up, not down.

All of this creates a pretty scary scenario. It’s unsustainable.

I know lots of my college friends are on the left side of the aisle, and many I’m sure imagine socialist programs would help, that we should “redistribute wealth”, and use those billions to pay off the deficit.

The problem with “redistribution” is that it’s theft. Fundamentally, it’s theft. Anytime you hear “government seized assets” you would say how “unjust”! And socialism, as a system, has never worked, ever.

There’s no winning.

I recommend you listen to the podcast. Or this older video, when he debated the Occupy Wall Street protestors.

This is not what I normally write about

Writing for me is generally therapeutic. I write about my journey with mental health with some frequency, and my advice given the experiences I’ve had. I feel comfortable in that realm because I’m talking about myself, a topic I’m well versed in…

Economics isn’t my “shtick”, but for me it ties into my daily experience.

In fact, it ties into all of our daily experiences.

These are issues that affect all of us (Americans that is) at some level, even if it’s just anxiety about the future.

And so, I felt compelled to write about it, and I’d be interested to hear your thoughts!

My takeaway

It makes me wonder, as a citizen, how safe it is to stay in the United States. Given all of these factors, I can’t help but feel like my friend is right to want to leave the country.

I actually have something to lose here, too. Like many people, I have some money in the stock market. I worry about the next recession because I know it’s overdue and could wreak havoc on the market.

Conventional wisdom would say to ride out the storm, but considering all this, I don’t know if conventional wisdom applies.

I fear that the US dollar is going to collapse and riding out the storm could be disastrous. And I fear that the US world standing is going to sink further and further, and staying here could be unwise if another recession hits.

There’s a lot to consider. And there’s a ton of contradictory information out there. Just Google “recession 2018”, and 1.8 million articles will come up telling you that a “recession is absolutely imminent” or “there’s nothing to worry about”.

I don’t know what the best course of action is, given the uncertainty and unpredictability of the market.

Still, I’m grateful to be aware and to have a friend who continues to educate me, introduces me to new ideas and information, and encourages me to take off my rose tinted glasses and see shit for what it is.

Even if it makes me uneasy.