Analysis: Can Mayor Megan Barry survive? Frustration from Nashville leaders builds over scandal

The morning after the most explosive revelations yet in the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation’s probe of Megan Barry’s affair with her former police bodyguard, Nashville’s mayor showed up at a ribbon-cutting in Old Hickory.

Less than 24 hours earlier, a new affidavit made public last Thursday detailed the existence of nude images that authorities suggest are of Barry on the cellphone of former Sgt. Rob Forrest.

But you would hardly know anything was out of the ordinary by Barry’s behavior this day.

Appearing at Old Hickory Towers for an announcement on upgrades to the affordable housing complex, Barry made the rounds shaking hands, sat on the front row during a news conference, and even shared pleasantries with one of her old rivals, former mayoral candidate Bill Freeman, whose real estate company owns the towers.

“So excited,” Barry told spectators after she took the podium, looking upbeat.

It was a remarkable scene for an embattled mayor whose future in office is in question after the biggest scandal to rock Nashville’s city hall in decades.

‘The bad headlines are hurting our city’

Barry has pressed on since admitting to the nearly two-year affair on Jan. 31. Her strategy: It's business as usual.

Yet the situation has taken a more serious turn now that the TBI says it has evidence that two state crimes — theft of property and official misconduct — may have been committed.

More: Exclusive: Mayor Barry’s job approval rating drops but remains strong, new poll finds

More: Despite transparency pledge, mayor's office denies information, records related to affair

Agents also say the images, taken during separate trips to Washington, D.C., are evidence that Barry engaged in the affair while Forrest was on duty.

Criticism of Barry is now the loudest it’s been since the scandal broke. And although a new Vanderbilt University poll suggests her approval ratings remain strong, even public officials aligned politically with the Democratic mayor say the situation has become a black eye for Nashville.

“This is a difficult and pivotal time for our city,” said U.S. Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Nashville, a Barry ally. “What’s best for Nashville is to quickly get all the facts. Metro Council and TBI have important jobs to do, and I hope they will complete their investigations in a thorough, professional manner. The bad headlines are hurting our city.”

Barry has said she has done nothing unlawful and has insisted she’s not resigning. But many in Nashville’s political class are privately debating whether she should.

And there is a growing belief that the scandal could soon have a negative impact on how the city operates, particularly with the budget season about to begin. The mayor’s budget hearings with city department directors start next month.

More: Mayor Barry: DA Glenn Funk should recuse himself from investigation into affair

More: Mayor Megan Barry shares cellphone pass code with TBI; lawyer rips investigation

“Some people have said we’ve gone from the ‘it city’ to 'tabloid city,’” said Metro Council Budget and Finance Committee Chairwoman Tanaka Vercher. “I really don’t know what she should do. If I was in her shoes, I don’t know what I would do. I know that I would make sure that I’m putting other interests above my own.

“From her comments from her press secretary, she believes she remains to be the best person for the job. Only time will tell.”

At-large Councilman John Cooper, brother of the congressman and a critic of the Barry administration, said he hasn't noticed an impact the affair scandal has had on city government operations. But with major upcoming issues to navigate, he’s worried that will change.

“In all honesty, it’s been hard for me to detect an impact yet,” John Cooper said. “But you’re just about to see it, I’m afraid, with the budget and decisions on affordable housing looming.”

Vice mayor: Up to Barry on whether she can effectively serve

Rattling city hall further was a USA TODAY NETWORK - Tennessee investigation, published Sunday, that showed Forrest racked up hundreds of hours of overtime in Nashville, escorting the mayor to hot yoga classes and hockey games, late-night concerts and trendy restaurants.

The review found, in some instances, there were no events on Barry’s calendar during times Forrest earned overtime pay. That’s in addition to overtime pay earned during 10 out-of-town trips taken by just the mayor and Forrest.

More: On the clock: A mayor, her bodyguard and late nights in Nashville

Barry’s ongoing scandal has already complicated her push for approval of a legacy-defining $5.4 billion transit plan via referendum on May 1. It's forced her to take a noticeable back seat as the chief salesperson of the project. At a campaign kick-off on a recent Saturday, Barry did not address the crowd, deferring to other community leaders to tout the plans for light rail and bus improvements.

Around 70 Nashvillians, mostly conservatives, took part in a small rally outside the Metro courthouse last week demanding her resignation before the filing of the affidavit.

No major elected official, Democrat or Republican, has called for Barry’s resignation.

More: 'Resign now!' small group at rally tells Nashville Mayor Megan Barry

There has been growing speculation that some in the Metro Council could propose a non-binding resolution that would ask for resignation, but no legislation has been filed. In recent years, similar council resolutions helped lead to the resignations of Davidson County Clerk John Arriola and former Criminal Court Clerk David Torrence during controversies involving their offices.

Vice Mayor David Briley, the head of the council who would serve as mayor if Barry steps down, did not directly say when asked whether the mayor should resign.

“Every elected official must put the interest of the citizens above her or his own,” Briley said in a statement. “It’s up to the mayor to decide whether she can continue to do that with these legitimate questions being asked.”

Separate from the TBI investigation, the council took historic action last month to assemble a special committee to investigate the use of public money during the mayor’s affair.

More: Nashville council committee investigating Mayor Barry picks chair, begins search for law firm

“I’ve committed to the vice mayor to keep an open mind, and I certainly am,” said At-large Councilman Bob Mendes, one of seven council members on the committee. “But with these continued news reports, it is getting increasingly difficult to see how this administration can run the city effectively.”

Mayor is still putting city first, advisers say

In addition to the legal counsel from her attorney Jerry Martin — a former U.S. attorney — Barry is receiving political advice from an inner circle that includes Katy Varney, a longtime friend and a partner at the powerful public relations firm McNeely Pigott and Fox.

Varney said Barry has put the city first in the weeks since she admitted to the affair.

“Despite all the distractions, Megan Barry has gotten up every day with an unwavering focus on the city’s business and the people of Nashville,” Varney said. “She has tremendous personal strength and a true sense of purpose, the work of being mayor always comes first.”

More: Mayor's office: Megan Barry not resigning despite revelations in TBI investigation

Barry and her lawyer have taken aim at District Attorney Glenn Funk, demanding that he recuse himself from the investigation and criticizing his handling of the case.

Asked by reporters Friday why she won’t consider a leave of absence, Barry said, “I have lots of work to do in this city. And every day I get up and I do it.”

“I’ve been very forthcoming with everything, and I think that the citizens of Davidson County continue to want us to get up everyday to go to work,” Barry said. “And I have a great team. We have great Metro employees who get up every day to make sure this city runs.”

Rich Riebeling, the mayor’s chief operating officer and former finance director under Mayor Karl Dean, pushed back at any suggestion that the scandal is hurting the ability of the mayor’s office to function. He pointed to meetings with airport officials and staff that the mayor held on Monday.

“It’s business as usual in terms of functioning in the office,” Riebeling said. “Obviously, there’s issues you have to deal with but I don’t think anything has diverted her attention from the task at hand, which is to try to keep the agenda moving forward, which she was elected to do.

“Time will tell, but I think at this point, with what we know now and what’s out there, there’s been no lack of focus on what needs to be done. I don’t see that changing.”

‘Getting harder and harder’ to survive

Even if Barry weathers the storm, she could face a more difficult re-election test in August 2019, if she chooses to run.

Most observers believe that she’s opened the door for a formidable campaign opponent to emerge even if she survives the scandal. There's no shortage of possible contenders in Democratic-heavy Davidson County. Some have speculated about Freeman, who explored a Democratic run for Tennessee governor after finishing third in the 2015 mayor’s race. Freeman declined to comment.

A competitive re-election would be unusual for Metro. Besides former Mayor Bill Boner, who dealt with a sex scandal of his own and declined to run for re-election in 1991, Nashville mayors have won second terms with nominal opposition.

But there’s a long time between now and next year’s election.

Pat Nolan, a longtime political commentator for WTVF-NewsChannel5 and senior vice president at DVL Seigenthaler, said that “as this continues to develop it seems to me that it’s getting hard and harder for her to survive." He said what else comes out of the ongoing investigations could ultimately determine her future.

“I think the initial developments that first couple of days were certainly not good for her," Nolan said. "And I think what happened late last week with the developments, they probably got a little worse. I don’t think anybody likes to see a city’s mayor’s name, or just the office, in the same sentence or the same story as nude photos and deleted text messages.

“I think there’s a bunch of things she’s still got left to re-win the community’s and voters’ support, and I think it’s getting harder and harder.”

Tennessean reporters Nate Rau and Dave Boucher contributed. Reach Joey Garrison at 615-259-8236, jgarrison@tennessean.com and on Twitter @joeygarrison.