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The math here is just plain incorrect: e.g., Italy has a population of 60m. Taking the 100 per million that this analysis assumes, would imply 6k cases in Italy -- we're already at 10k cases as of the date of the article's publication (+66% higher!).



Also, what this analysis misses is that death rates depend on availability of special care hospital beds, staff, and respirators. Just to illustrate: there are 20 respirators in a hospital. If 100 catch the virus, 20 end up in hospital, 1 dies (broadly reflecting current stats). If 200 catch the virus, 40 end up in hospital, but wait -- there are only 20 respirators -- so the 20 who don't have respirators die + 1 of the 20 who did have respirators. Now your death rate is 21/200 or 11%. You can't discuss this issue reasonably without discussing the strain on the healthcare system.



I would listen to epidemologists and virologists who say, yes, this isn't scary, but the combination of attack rate and mortality (e.g., even at 1% it is 10x deadlier than the flu), strain a nation's healthcare system -- and its the inadequacy of healthcare delivery that the causes a spike in deaths and tragedy.