An American Research Group poll fresh out of Michigan shows Donald Trump beating his closest rival by a 2-to-1 margin. Currently, the billionaire business earns 35% support. John Kasich is in second place with 17% support. Just behind the Ohio governor is Marco Rubio, who slides into third in a tie with Ted Cruz at 12%. Ben Carson is in 4th place with 9% support.

The poll was taken on Friday and Saturday and therefore does not reflect Jeb Bush’s decision Saturday night to drop out of the race. Nonetheless, Bush earns just 4% support. Even if you believe the spin that Rubio will win all of Bush’s votes, he still loses to both Kasich and Trump.

The starkest way to present these results is to add up all of the Establishment vote (33%) and realize that Trump still comes out ahead.

Another problem for the Establishment is Kasich’s standing. What is his rationale to drop out and clear the lane for Rubio when the Ohio governor is ahead of Rubio in a delegate-rich state like Michigan?

Voting in Michigan takes place March 8. Kasich might also be holding out for the Ohio primary, which takes place the following week.

Follow John Nolte on Twitter @NolteNC