The smoke may have cleared from the Reddit uprising, but the clock is now ticking for interim CEO Ellen Pao to prove she can lead the chaotic community while some analysts predict her ouster.

On Monday, three days after a group of influential moderators pushed back against the abrupt firing of a beloved Reddit employee by temporarily taking down key sections of the website, Pao issued a candid apology to Reddit users: "We screwed up. Not just on July 2, but also over the past several years...The mods and the community have lost trust in me and in us, the administrators of reddit."

When commenters asked Pao why she didn't apologize before, she replied that she had — but that users had downvoted her comments so fast, and so far, that they couldn't be seen any more.

Pao's acknowledgement of her low stock was a stark admission from a chief executive who only took over the top spot in November on an interim basis. Her predecessor, Yishan Wong, who resigned abruptly last year, even posted a rare comment in response to her apology to say Pao was simply "cleaning up" his mess.

Ellen Pao leaves the California Superior Court Civic Center Courthouse on March 10. Image: Justin Sullivan/Getty

Wong's effort was nice, but probably ineffective. Throughout her brief tenure, Pao and her administration have been criticized by users for poor communication, removing a select group of offensive subreddits — running up against the site's staunch free speech supporters — and now failing to alert key moderators before abruptly parting ways with a beloved employee who worked closely with them.

Moderators, who work unpaid to manage sections of the site, felt "disrespect" and pushed back with a black out.

The reaction offered the clearest indication yet of who really commands the respect of the Reddit community: It's the select group of power users who can make or break the site. It's longtime Reddit insiders like cofounder and executive chairman Alexis Ohanian who can quell revolts.

It's not the CEO. It's not Ellen Pao.

"With all this negative press and negative user base reactions towards her positions as CEO, I think she’s pretty much lost all credibility," says Tyler Lawrence, a Reddit moderator who has worked with a variety of prominent groups including r/news. "That leads to an inability to lead the company effectively. From this point on, people will just associate her with the bad things."

Alexis Ohanian, the founder of Reddit.

Indeed, the anti-Pao propaganda had reached a fever pitch by the time Pao apologized. A Change.org petition to oust her as CEO had shot up from a few thousand supporters to well over 100,000 (and, as of early Tuesday, surging above 200,000).

An unconfirmed post alleging that Pao had fired a Reddit employee with leukemia had gained traction online. And an earlier comment she'd provided to The New York Times had been taken out of context to suggest she believes influential moderators are insignificant to the overall site. Perception, as all politicians and executives know well, matters.

"I have defended you (and the entire admin staff) for a long time," a moderator who goes by the user name UnholyDemigod wrote in a comment addressed to Pao. "But with your recent comments to the media, you have made it very hard to continue to defend you. For example, you say it's only the vocal minority who cares about this. This and other things you have said lead me to believe one of two things: you either do not understand the reddit userbase, or you do not care."

Brian Blau, an analyst who covers the major Internet companies for Gartner, went so far as to tell Mashable that "there is a risk here that Pao could lose the helm at Reddit."

In response to the Change.org petition, a spokesperson for Reddit told Mashable that Pao continues to have "the full support of the team."

Bigger than Pao

Beyond the confines of Reddit, Pao is revered as a newly minted feminist icon who braved a difficult trial to call out gender discrimination in Silicon Valley.

Inside the Reddit community, however, Pao is criticized ceaselessly — some reasoned, much of it vitriolic.

Users regularly target her with racist or misogynistic language. Some call her Chairman Pao for appearing to impose stricter censorship on a site long considered a safe haven for unfettered expression, even if it is offensive or hateful. She is chastised by users for her stiff, formal comments on the site — when she comments at all — or for allegedly deleting posts.

According to the Change.org petition, "A vast majority of the Reddit community believes that Pao, 'a manipulative individual who will sue her way to the top', has overstepped her boundaries and fears that she will run Reddit into the ground."

In truth, Pao, viewed as an outsider by some, has emerged as the lightning rod for criticism of the many changes that Reddit would likely pursue with or without her in order to grow its user base and boost revenue — changes publicly endorsed by beloved cofounder Ohanian — following a $50 million venture capital infusion last year. Her occasional communication fumbles may have made her an easier target, but the issues of censorship and relationships with power users are bigger than her.

Reddit, founded a decade ago with the goal of becoming the Internet's front page, is now vying for a greater share of the eyeballs and ad dollars going to the real front pages of the Internet: Facebook, Twitter, etc. To achieve that goal, Reddit's leadership must walk the fine line of curbing the most offensive and threatening behavior on site and commercializing Reddit without alienating core users and undermining the vibrancy of its community.

Along the way, there has been some turnover in employees, including Victoria Taylor, the administrator whose abrupt departure, still unexplained, ignited the latest moderator revolt.

At least for this latest Reddit revolt, though, Pao is not the intended target. "The shut down has nothing to do with moderators being disgruntled with Ellen Pao specifically," the moderators for the history subreddit explained in a post about their blackout. It was instead a reaction to longtime frustration at the lack of communication with Reddit administrators. Yet, the controversy and first widespread site shutdown nonetheless added fuel to the narrative against Pao.

As CEO, Pao wrote in her apology, "the buck stops with me."

Next steps

Reddit's core users are now waiting to see if Pao and her administration make good on a promise to deliver better moderator tools in the final few months of this year.

"By December 31, we will evaluate what the admins have told us, and based on that, decide what the appropriate actions are," the history subreddit moderators wrote. "If we need to shut down again, for a longer period of time, we will shut down again."

Moderators we spoke with expressed optimism that Reddit employees would follow through and do right by them. "As for whether mods are confident they can work with them, I guess they don't have a choice :/" a moderator who goes by the user name qgyh2 wrote in a private message to Mashable.

Some of these moderators have devoted years of their lives to working on Reddit. That's difficult to give up.

Pao has weathered one major, though brief, shutdown. It's unclear whether she'd survive another revolt.

Her replacement, by common agreement among industry watchers and users, might be Ohanian himself. He has the credibility that comes with being a founder, and even though he has fully backed all the same initiatives as Pao, Redditors have not turned on him.

But Ohanian may not want the job. After all, he gets to help set Reddit's course while someone else serves as the lightning rod for criticism during what may go down as the most tumultuous period in its history.