Southwestern Ontario is one of the most vulnerable regions in the country if Donald Trump follows through on promises to rip up trade deals and toughen border controls now that he is elected president of the United States, economists said Wednesday.

“We are probably the most exposed region when it comes to the changes Trump is talking about,” said Western University economist Mike Moffatt. “Southwestern Ontario is an exporting region, a trade region. Anything that makes trade more difficult is not at all good for our region.”

There are still big question marks about how much of what Trump said about trade -- he repeatedly called NAFTA the worst trade deal in world history -- was just campaign rhetoric and how much was something he plans to move on.

Given the support his anti-NAFTA comments gave him, there is no possibility he will abandon the issue, said Don Abelson, director of the Canada-U.S. Institute and chair of the political science department at Western University.

“There is no way he is walking away from it, the question is how do we protect our interests going forward. How do we limit the damage this will cause? It is going to affect us in Southwestern Ontario given our proximity to the U.S. border ,” Abelson said.

Trump as president will have the executive power to abrogate the trade treaties with six months notice, Abelson said.

Moffatt said there are several big worries for the region.

One is the fate of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal among 12 Pacific Rim countries, including Canada and the United States.

Beef and pork farmers in Southwestern Ontario were counting on the deal to open massive markets for their products, as well as agri-food industries in the region.

“It doesn’t look that is going to happen now. United States effectively has a veto on TPP and I can’t see this administration passing that. It is going to be unfortunate for us.”

More uncertain is what will happen to NAFTA, he said.

“Automotive supply chains run through Mexico. It is going to be difficult for our Canadian assemblers to operate in a world where there are tariffs between Mexico and the United States. It is going to be a tough situation for us,” Moffatt said.

Moffatt predicts the uncertainty over trade deals will prevent companies from making any long-term plans in the region until they see how the situation plays out.

“There is a lot of wait and see that is going to cause a slowdown in business investment over the next year or two.”

Douglas Porter, chief economist for BMO, said Trump’s election could turn out to be a mixed bag for the region.

In the short term, the economic uncertainty isn’t helpful and there is the potential for supply chains important to Southwestern Ontario to be disrupted, he said.

But other economic measures advocated by Trump, such as fiscal stimulus and cuts to personal and corporate taxes, could actually improve the U.S. economy and boost Canada’s main economic engine, exports, Porter said.

To head off potential damage, Abelson said it is important Canada work closely with allies in the U.S., including in Congress and state governments, to make sure Canadian concerns are heard.

It is also important for the Trudeau government to move ahead with formation of a Cabinet-level committee that will focus on Canada-U.S. relations.

“Canada is often a difficult sell in Washington. It is a relationship that constantly needs to be nurtured,” Ableson said.

jminer@postmedia.com

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