David Montgomery Fantasy Outlook 2019

From the final play of the Super Bowl to the first snap of the preseason, the NFL is a continually evolving tapestry. With player movement in free agency, retirements, & incoming rookie classes every year, depth charts can look entirely different from season to season. Examining these changes and determining what to make of them can be the key to fantasy success. The current Chicago Bears backfield is a perfect example of this. Understanding this backfield and how David Montgomery fits into it will be critical in 2019.

Chicago Bears Rushing Attack

Matt Nagy fielded a productive rushing offense in his first year at the helm. While the Bears' rushing attack was effective ranking 11th in rushing yards (1,938) and seventh in rushing touchdowns (16), they were not efficient in their efforts. Last year Chicago ranked 27th in yards per attempt (4.1) and 31st in second-level yards (0.96) per Football Outsiders. Jordan Howard lacked anything resembling dynamic playmaking ability. In 2018 Howard ranked 47th or lower per Playerprofiler in evaded tackles (47th), juke rate (58th), and yards created per carry (58th). Tarik Cohen's ability in the passing game is well documented, but as a rusher, Cohen was the only explosive ball carrier in Chicago. Cohen was the lone back to finish above 3.7 yards per carry (4.5). With Howard's "Willam Perry-Esque" explosive play metrics, you have a positional group in need of an upgrade.

The offensive line wasn't the murderer's row of the midway ranking 28th in adjusted line yards, but there is hope for 2019. If Kyle Long's health complies in 2019, he could be a difference-maker for the Bears' ground game. In 2018 per the Quant Edge Injury Tool, with Long on the field, the difference correlated extremely positive for Chicago: run success (51.9 percent vs. 43.5 percent), explosive run rate (6.9 percent vs. 3.6 percent), and yards per carry (4.78 vs. 3.51) all took massive leaps inefficiency. Yes, I know that's a big "if" with Long only having played eight, 10, and eight games over his last three seasons. And yes, an offensive line is more than just one player, but the splits for this run game with and without Long are staggering.

Matt Nagy's Thirst for a Workhorse

In 2018, Matt Nagy inherited a varied running back room. Cohen and Howard each possess redeeming attributes as players, but neither of them possessed a broad enough skill set to become Nagy's three-down workhorse. At 6'0" 230 pounds, Howard had the size and durability to withstand a 270 touch workload. However, despite endless talk of Howard's work on the jugs machine, his receiving ability never materialized. From 2016-2018, among the 35 running backs that totaled 100 or more targets, Howard ranked 34th in catch rate (66.7 percent) while also finishing 33rd in yards per target (5.26). Cohen is at the opposite end of the spectrum. Cohen oozes pass game acumen, but he stands 5'6" with a body mass index (BMI) in the 23rd percentile. Cohen is not a player built to handle the voluminous beating on early downs.

Even stretching back to his days in Kansas City, Nagy is a coach that desires one primary running back that he can lean on every week. After taking over play-calling before week 13 in 2017, Nagy not only fed Kareem Hunt down the stretch but also ensured that he was the predominant force behind the Chiefs' ground game. Hunt's overall volume and opportunity share floor spiked after Nagy began calling plays. Hunt's opportunity share which had languished in the 60 percent range (from 63.2 percent to 68.8 percent) in the three weeks before Nagy sat comfortably at 84.6 percent or higher until all of the starters were rested early in the week 17 game.

Kareem Hunt 2017 Season Rush Attempts per Game Targets per Game Opportunity Share Andy Reid play calling (Weeks 1-12) 16.7 3.8 63.2-100% Matt Nagy play calling (Weeks 13-16)*** 21.8 5.3 84.6-89.2%

***Week 17 omitted: Starter all benched

Now hop in the DeLorean and fast forward to 2018 where over the first three weeks of the season Nagy attempted to make Howard his Windy City workhorse. Nagy figured out quickly that while Howard had some redeeming qualities as an NFL running back, he was miscast as an every-down back. After week 3, Howard saw his touches per game take a hit, his targets dry up, and his overall snaps swing towards Cohen.

Jordan Howard Tarik Cohen Touches per Game (Weeks 1-3) 21.3 7.0 Touches per Game (Weeks 4-17) 15.8 11.5 Total Targets (Weeks 1-3) 11 8 Total Targets (Weeks 4-17) 15 83 Snaps per Game (Weeks 1-3) 48.0 26.3 Snaps per Game (Weeks 4-17) 36.9 32

A Tall Glass of Water

After spending the 2018 season with the mash-up of Howard and Cohen combining into one do-it-all NFL back the Bears were determined to address the position. The Bears first move was to sign Mike Davis in free agency to a two-year contract. Davis will enter 2019 as the 31st highest-paid running back in the NFL per spotrac.com. Looking at Davis's contract even closer as soon as 2020, he can be cut for a dead cap penalty of 1 million dollars. So what does this all mean? Davis is a 26-year-old running back now on his third team. Davis has shown that in a pinch, he can be a versatile threat in all phases of the game. However, he has never shown that he can be the consistent main cog for an offense in the NFL. Davis has never surpassed 150 touches in a season since entering the league (career-high 146, 2018). A talented rookie supplanting a player with this production history and level of financial team commitment should not be surprising. Instead, it should be expected (Hint Hint)

NFL teams rarely show us their true intentions. From coach-speak to beat writer reports, it's hard to sift through the white noise and fluff at times. The two times a year, we get a peek behind the curtain are during free agency and the draft. Over the last two years, two timelines emerged that is similar to the Bears actions. The Vikings and Browns both signed relatively inexpensive veteran runners during free agency in Latavius Murray and Carlos Hyde. Both teams then spent sizable draft equity on running backs (Dalvin Cook & Nick Chubb) that supplanted their veteran counterparts during their rookie seasons. Addressing the position before the draft can help to insulate the depth chart should the team miss out on the top players on their board. Chicago acted decisively to ensure that didn't happen. The Bears traded up 14 spots to nab their guy Montgomery.

The media and even Nagy himself has drawn quick comparables of Montgomery to Kareem Hunt. Per Player Profiler, these two players are near mirror images in terms of their 40-yard dash times (Hunt 4.62 vs. Montgomery 4.63) and speed scores (Hunt 94.8 vs. Montgomery 96.6). Montgomery holds a slight edge in the agility score (Hunt 11.75 vs. Montgomery 11.35). Instead of signing Hunt as a free agent, they chose to draft his athletic doppelganger.

During his collegiate career like Hunt, Montgomery illustrated that not only can he shoulder a substantial workload, but he is also an asset in the passing game. Over his final two seasons at Iowa State Montgomery averaged 286 touches per season and 29 receptions. As the collegiate leader in forced missed tackles per carry per Pro Football Focus in 2018, Montgomery offers a high volume playmaking ability that Howard never did.

David Montgomery Fantasy 2019 Outlook

Reading the tea leaves with the Bears aggressiveness in securing Montgomery and the nature of Mike Davis's contract, barring a total face plant in camp, Montgomery should be the primary back. With Mike Davis sliding in as the direct backup to Montgomery the question remains what happens to Cohen in 2019. Cohen has stated that he's "going to be doing the same things [he] was doing last year... [and] be the receiving back, come in and be the change-of-pace-back." Cohen will not vanish from this offense. His ability to take any opportunity for a long touchdown is too dangerous to ignore. Also difficult to ignore is the fact that from 2017-2018 (outside of quarterbacks) Cohen has the second most fumbles (10) in the NFL. However, ball security issues are not a concern with either Davis or Montgomery. Davis has one fumble on his NFL resume and Montgomery never totaled more than one fumble in any of his three collegiate seasons. Cohen should reprise his pass game role in 2019 but considering not only ball security but Cohen's size Davis should slot in as a change of pace on early downs.

Nagy's history of funneling opportunities to one back is hard to project in terms of an 80 percent or higher opportunity share for Montgomery considering the presence of Mike Davis. Projecting Montgomery for a similar workload in terms of overall opportunity to Howard is not. The Bear's new rookie is a better receiver than Howard even at this juncture of his career. Montgomery should have no issues garnering more than the 1.6 targets per game Howard did. Montgomery enters a backfield with 282 touches and a 58 percent opportunity share up for grabs. Jordan Howard, even with his limited receiving ability commanded a 55.4 opportunity share in his 250 rushing attempts 26 targets. Montgomery ceding some carries to Davis to keep him fresh during his first 16 game season should be expected. However, in my projection with Davis already taking some early-down work from Cohen, Montgomery will probably only lose a handful of carries to Davis.

Montgomery should carve out a plentiful role in the red zone. Last season Howard handled 60.6 percent of the carries (20) inside the 10-yard line and 68.8 percent of the carries (11) inside the 5-yard line. Mitch Trubisky dealt with a shoulder injury in 2018, and his absence from the Bears offense, when sidelined with that injury, was palpable. Running Trubisky into the teeth of the opposing defense near the goal line makes little sense in 2019. As for Mike Davis, in 2018, of the 38 players with 21 or more red zone rushing attempts (Davis, 21) only four players finished with a lower touchdown conversion rate than Davis (Alex Collins, James White, Carlos Hyde, and Mark Ingram).

Over the last four years on average, three rookies each season have been top 20 running backs in fantasy points per game. Those 12 running backs averaged 17.46 touches per game and 9.8 touchdowns. Last year Howard averaged 16.88 touches per game and scored nine touchdowns. My current projection for Montgomery (below) is for 16.7 touches per game and nine total touchdowns. Based on this projection Montgomery would have finished as the RB20 in fantasy points per game in 2018 in point per reception (PPR) scoring. Montgomery will be a top 20 running back in 2019 with the ceiling for more if Nagy feeds him like Kareem Hunt in 2017.

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