The Packers have struggled to control San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who is ready to run when plays break down. Credit: Mike De Sisti

Green Bay — There's a gap in the NFC, whether Mike McCarthy and the Green Bay Packers want to admit it or not.

There's the Seattle Seahawks, the San Francisco 49ers....and everyone else.

On Jan. 19, 2014, these two teams staged a street fight of a conference title game. Any return to prominence must venture through such a dark alley. McCarthy says repeatedly the Packers are ready — he fumed at the assumption Green Bay was not during his season-ending news conference.

Injuries have often been a legitimate excuse. Bottom line, this is a team that's lost four straight to the 49ers and wasn't nearly as punch-drunk physical as the Super Bowl-champion Seahawks.

Has anything changed? Beginning this week at training camp, the Packers find out.

One former NFL general manager, Bill Polian, sees no gap.

"Getting over a hump," Polian said, "that's a storyline. That's not the real world of football."

Another, Charley Casserly, does see a gap, saying "I think those two teams are ahead of them."

And both believe there are ways to slay the (real or perceived) NFC powerhouses.

"They're both a little different but their defenses are outstanding," said Casserly, who oversaw Washington and Houston. "Seattle's relies upon a great secondary and some good pass rushers. San Francisco has a great front seven. They both have strong running games and that's what they do well. They have different styles — Seattle's a zone running team, San Francisco's a power running team. But they both rely upon that.

"Their quarterbacks, they're not Aaron Rodgers by any stretch of the imagination. But they're both mobile and create opportunities because they're mobile. But they both win — not because of their quarterbacks. There are a lot of quarterbacks that can win with their teams."

These two teams will be on the Packers' minds through August, right up to that Week 1 showdown.

Run at Seattle

Weaknesses are nearly impossible to find on this roster. Pete Carroll, John Schneider and the Seahawks' front office have hit the bull's-eye pick after pick after pick with one common thread — speed. Seattle is scorching at each level defensively.

League MVP Peyton Manning learned the hard way that finesse — even record-setting finesse — is chewed up and spat out by the Seahawks.

"You want to run right at them," Casserly said. "When you have speed, you want to run straight at it. You don't try to run laterally. Be physical with them."

A smart quarterback is necessary. Seattle employs multiple, disguised coverages that befuddled a mastermind in that 43-8 smackdown.

But a decisive, machete of a lead back can counter speed. On paper, the 230-pound Eddie Lacy fits the description.

"That's what you have to do against a team like them," Casserly said. "Their defensive ends are undersized. So running at them — run at them — is where you have to take advantage."

At times, the interior of Seattle's defense holds firm. Other times, Casserly says, Brandon Mebane is neutralized. When the Packers visit the edge of the earth, CenturyLink Field, expect a lot of Lacy, Starks and a run game trying to get north and south.

Win with defense

Casserly quickly points to Arizona's 17-10 win at Seattle late last season.

Knocking off Seattle truly begins with shutting down its offense. Scoring points yourself will be a chore. But the Cardinals did suffocate the Seahawks offense that day to only 10 first downs and 192 yards.

"Their receivers really haven't been that good," Casserly said. "They haven't been guys you have to double-cover. So if you keep Wilson in the pocket, that's a big asset there. He has trouble throwing from the pocket. He forces himself to get outside the pocket.

"The way Arizona beat them, with their defense, was their pass rush. They had constant pressure on them. They were better up front than Seattle was. Seattle does not have a great offensive line. And they were better than them up front. But even when Wilson got outside the pocket, they still pressured him. They were relentless on that. So you've got to win the line of scrimmage against Seattle both ways. That's how you beat them."

Confuse Kaepernick

On to San Francisco with, first, the good news. Don't count on any more dazed-and-confused, backs-turned defenders on the wrong end of the read option. Not after the whopping contract Kaepernick received in the off-season — San Francisco can't afford kill shots.

Slowing Kaepernick the downfield passer (412 yards in Week 1) and the play-breaks-down scrambler (98 yards in Week 18) is a totally different task.

He's not the surgical type, who'll go through one, two, three, four reads in a snap. He is a 6-foot-4, 230-pounder with a rocket arm, 4.5 speed and a full menu of weapons.

The Packers must cage Kaepernick in the pocket, while simultaneously confusing him on the back end.

The rangy Ha Ha Clinton-Dix could help. Another pass rusher in Julius Peppers could, too. So far, Kaepernick has been a one-man conundrum.

"What he evolved into last year," Casserly said, "(was) one read, if that wasn't there, he was going to take off and run....However you do it, you have to find a way to contain him in the pocket as far as limiting his rush opportunities. He's very good at that."

The Rodgers difference

During Polian's final year as the Indianapolis Colts' general manager — a Peyton Manning-less 2-14 quest — one of the team's coaches summed the team's plight up best as the two got onto the team bus.

"This gentleman said to me," Polian recalled, "'We've been getting on this bus for 12 years, knowing that we have a 50% chance to win the game. It's a toss-up every week, no matter who we're playing, because we have 18. And it's very strange not having him.' That's exactly what he does for you.

"He creates the sense that, hey, no game is beyond us. No game is out of reach no matter how big the score. And as a result, everybody plays looser and harder. They know that one play, one big play, can change a game. The defense creates one turnover — seven points. Bing. It's that mind-set he gives you."

The energy of the team changes with a Manning, a Rodgers, an elite talent under center.

Just because the Seahawks treated Denver's Manning like a piñata doesn't discount the fact that this remains the most important position in sports.

A special player at quarterback is the ultimate variable.

Picture Rodgers at Atlanta back in 2010, eluding free runners to complete 31 of 36 passes. Certain players can rise above. Maybe the difference between Rodgers and any other quarterback Green Bay faces this season is, indeed, enough.

No wonder the general manager who had Jim Kelly in Buffalo and Manning in Indianapolis dismisses the notion the Packers have to catch up to Seattle, to San Francisco. The Packers, he repeats, are contenders.

"Start with the quarterback," said Polian, pausing four seconds. "You can start and end there.

"I don't know who the best is. But he is clearly one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. And he can do marvelous things. There's no reason to believe he won't continue to do it....He can make every throw. He can extend every play. He has great calmness and great poise in the pocket. And they've got people who are playmakers."

So there was Rodgers in a chair during OTAs saying that "not much" separated the Packers from the 49ers.

In due time, Green Bay will find out.

Send email to tdunne@journalsentinel.com

This column appeared in Packer Plus Magazine

SINKING FEELING

A look at the Packers' last four last losses to the 49ers, as well as the most recent loss to the Seahawks:

Jan. 5, 2014: 49ers 23, Packers 20 (NFC wild card)

Sept. 8, 2013: 49ers 34, Packers 28 (Week 1)

Jan. 12, 2013: 49ers 45, Packers 31 (NFC divisional playoffs)

Sept. 24, 2012: Seahawks 14, Packers 12 (Week 3)

Sept. 9, 2012: 49ers 30, Packers 22 (Week 1)