



At Macworld Expo 2007, Steve Jobs predicted Apple would sell 10 million iPhones in 2008—not 10 million through 2008, so don't even go there. Now, with the expected second coming of the Jesus Phone at WWDC, six-figure analysts are looking at that prediction again. First, from Seeking Alpha, Goldman Sachs is both bearish and bullish on the iPhone.

Goldman sees the active installed base for the iPhone climbing from around 2 million at the end of 2007 to roughly 9 million by the end of 2008, jumping to approximately 20 million and 30 million by the ends of 2009 and 2010, respectively.

Driving those crazy insane numbers in the latter years will be software sales. "Rich" applications made possible by OS X and the iPhone SDK will mean a better experience for users. As those benighted souls using Windows Mobile or Symbian Whatever become aware of the Mac Mobile Experience, they will increasingly come to iPhone. This would explain the relatively anemic number for 2008, since fewer applications will be available because the App Store won't be live until June. Still, all good in the end.

A less sanguine outlook comes from the New York Times.

"They're going to have a difficult time" hitting that number, said Edward Snyder, an analyst at Charter Equity Research. He said that Nokia, the world’s largest maker of cellphones, sells more phones every week than Apple has sold since the iPhone’s introduction.

That number is 10 million iPhones sold in 2008—don't—and the rationale is based partly on the present reality. Apple sold roughly 600,000 iPhones a month in the first quarter, but that was before May 10. That was the day the Apple Store online stopped selling iPhones in the US and some countries. Since then, shortages have also hit Apple Retail Stores—shortages that will likely continue until the 3G iPhone starts selling, and that could be as late as early July. Assuming it will be a couple of weeks from announcement to sale for the 3G iPhone, it's possible the second quarter will see relatively few iPhones sold.

Assuming Apple sells 1.3 million iPhones in the second quarter, that would be 3 million for the first half of the year. This means Apple would have to sell 7 million iPhones from July through December to get 10 million in 2008, or more than were sold in the first year of sales. Based on those numbers, one can see why analysts with advanced degrees in business and economics might doubt.

It's a good thing Steve Jobs dropped out of college.