The draft is less than a month away, but plenty can still change and plenty will. Trades will happen, teams will reach for quarterbacks and the notion of how realistic it is for X player to fall will start to shift.

But we're reacting to this stage right now, and it's the one where the Lions seem poised to make an impact selection with their first top-10 pick in a few years. It could come at tight end or guard, but the value seems best on defense, as is the case for so many parts of this draft.

And so if we start with the conventional, then we have to explore the bigger picture. That's where seven-round mocks can be an interesting exercise, even if the final product will look nothing like the practice rounds.

This is my first of this draft season, using the fancy new simulator over at The Draft Network. To clarify, since this always gets lost in this practice, this is about what I think the Lions would do in these situations given their needs, schemes and what they tend to look for. It's not necessarily what I would do if I were the GM.

Let's get to it:

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Round 1, Pick 8: Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State

The Lions could go a number of ways with this first pick, including drafting a tight end or guard. I think the value of those two positions is much stronger in the second and third rounds than it is in the first, which is the chance to get a star. It was tough for me to choose between Sweat and Florida State's Brian Burns, who I think is a better pure pass rusher, but Sweat fits more of what the Lions look for in a balanced edge setter. He just fits the bill the Lions look for, with 30 tackles for loss and 22.5 sacks combined over the past two seasons in the Southeastern Conference.

The Lions could place Sweat opposite Trey Flowers and really make their defensive line a force, which would allow Matt Patricia to do all the creative stuff he likes to do with every other position on defense. Detroit wanted to get better playmakers to affect the quarterback, and this would complete that task.

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Round 2, Pick 43: Chris Lindstrom, OG, Boston College

Like I said, the depth at guard and tight end in this class is very strong. Lindstrom ends up being the dream come true in this mock draft, as many see him as a first rounder and the clear top pure guard in the class. At 6 feet 4 inches and 308 pounds, his athleticism is off the charts at his position, and he brings years of starting experience at guard and center, which is something the Lions loved in Frank Ragnow.

I don't expect Lindstrom to be available eight picks into the second round, but a run on defenders or quarterbacks could change things and guards do fall sometimes. The Lions would run to the podium in this situation to find the last starter to complete their high-priced offensive line.

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Round 3, Pick 88: Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple

The Lions have picked at their cornerback problem this offseason in signing Justin Coleman and Rashan Melvin, but you can never have too many of them and the Lions certainly don't right now. Coleman is a clear starter at nickel, and they have Darius Slay on one edge, but they need another lengthy and preferably tough outside cornerback to handle the various vertical threats they face. Enter Ya-Sin, who has risen perhaps more than any draft prospect over the past calendar year. In that span, he went from a tiny school in Presbyterian to Temple, where he was an instant leader as well as a first-team all-conference player. With seven interceptions the past two seasons, he brings what the Lions didn't have in Nevin Lawson. At 6 feet 192 pounds with a 4.51-yard 40-yard dash, he brings what they thought they could work around in Teez Tabor.

Ya-Sin will need a little bit of time to acclimate to high-level football, but the Lions have some numbers and he appears like one of the best bets in the draft to take well to coaching. It was tempting to go with Clemson's Trayvon Mullen here, as he also fits Patricia's No. 2 cornerback spot, but Ya-Sin's rise has me thinking his ceiling is even higher.

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Round 4, Pick 111: Kahale Warring, TE, San Diego State

The picks up until this one have been a pretty easy blend of need with the best players available at the time, but there's an opportunity cost to everything, and so far it has been the tight ends. I'm not sold that Jesse James is ready to be a top player here, but he'll be better than anything they had last year and does have the balance and experience to allow them to bring another option along perhaps a little more slowly. That's what rookie tight ends are anyway, and it's what Warring could be from a receiving standpoint after he played in such a run-heavy, pro-style offense at San Diego State, where he was a teammate of Lions fullback Nick Bawden. At 6 feet 5 inches and 252 pounds, Warring is tough and competitive as a blocker and has athleticism to mold in the passing game, where he did score eight touchdowns. He'd be a project to a degree, but he could match James in giving the Lions two tight ends who can block or catch, allowing them to be an equal threat to do either on a given play.

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Round 5, Pick 146: Devine Ozigbo, RB, Nebraska

The Lions tried to address their second running back spot in free agency with Malcolm Brown, but the Rams matched the offer to keep him in-house. With options dried up, I think they go to this draft class, which isn't great at the position, but running backs are always decent value picks at this stage in the order. Ozigbo burst onto the scene last year after three middling seasons and dominated behind a bad Nebraska line, totaling 1,082 yards and 12 touchdowns on seven yards per carry. He has a bruising frame at 6 feet and 235 pounds, though he has much of it left to unpack. I love running backs who come in with low mileage, and that also makes him a good complement to Kerryon Johnson, who had so much run in college and has ended two straight seasons hurt. Ozigbo has skills in all areas and would help the Lions survive an injury either to Johnson or to Theo Riddick.

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Round 6, Pick 184: Terry Godwin, WR, Georgia

I put wide receiver off this long because I think the Lions will end up signing another, possibly Dontrelle Inman, and because Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay give Detroit the ability to pluck off value picks behind them. I like this receiver class more than most, especially in its depth, and it's a surprise to see Godwin fall this far, though injuries in his last season will do that. At 5 feet 11 inches and 184 pounds, Godwin has the hands and body control to be an inside-outside receiver with the consistency to balance out Detroit's deep-ball players. He'll need some strength and release development as a rookie, but having him learn behind Danny Amendola would be great for this. Godwin could be Detroit's third target by 2020 if all goes well.

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Round 7, Pick 204: Gardner Minshew, QB, Washington State

The Lions are likely to draft a quarterback this year, but it's to be a backup. Attempts to do so with Jake Rudock and Brad Kaaya in the past didn't work out great, but Detroit has extra picks this late and should be able to spot a classic backup type when it sees one. That's what Minshew looks like. He's acclimated to each new stop quickly, including finishing fifth in the Heisman Trophy voting with 4,779 yards, 38 touchdowns and nine interceptions in his first year at Washington State. At 6 feet 1 inch and 225 pounds, Minshew has most of the tools the NFL looks for but needs to develop some arm strength. That isn't always as easy as it sounds, but Minshew's mind and accuracy should allow him to step into a system with Patriots concepts and execute most of what's asked for him, at least in time.

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Round 7, Pick 224: Austin Bryant, EDGE, Clemson

The Lions are looking for backups and moldable parts at this stage in the draft, and I think they'll find some good options for Patricia to work with on defense. One is Bryant, who had some big moments and enough ability to become a player with 30.5 tackles for loss and 17 sacks over two seasons on Clemson's national championship roster. He comes in light against the run, needing better play strength, but he has the potential to add that with a frame that stretches 6 feet 4 inches and 271 pounds with nearly 35-inch arms. Those arms are even longer than Romeo Okwara's, whose length made him a target for Patricia before he became one of the success stories last season. He might seem redundant in that way, but he also fits a type. With the ability to play these different guys inside on pure passing downs, I think Patricia would jump over a player like this still being available in the seventh.

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Round 7, Pick 229: T.J. Edwards, LB, Wisconsin

The Lions finish this draft out on defense, which isn't a problem with how much turnover they've had to assimilate to a new scheme. Edwards is a popular mock to the Lions because his intangibles at the position fit a lot of what Patricia looks for in a middle linebacker. With at least 80 tackles all four years in the Big Ten, Edwards has shown strong play diagnosis against the run and the pass. His 6-foot, 230-pound frame and lacking athleticism won't make him someone you want to play against the pass much, but Patricia's system is about specific downs as it is. Edwards lost a good deal of weight this offseason to try to translate to a more athletic league, which shows his commitment, and Patricia would be happy to bring a player in like that to help on special teams and on scout team.

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The haul

In the end, I came out with these players for the Lions:

Round 1, Pick 8: Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State

Round 2, Pick 43: Chris Lindstrom, G, Boston College

Round 3, Pick 88: Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple

Round 4, Pick 111: Kahale Warring, TE, San Diego State

Round 5, Pick 146: Devine Ozigbo, RB, Nebraska

Round 6, Pick 184: Chris Godwin, WR, Georgia

Round 7, Pick 204: Gardner Minshew, QB, Washington State

Round 7, Pick 224: Austin Bryant, EDGE, Clemson

Round 7, Pick 229: T.J. Edwards, LB, Wisconsin

It went from beefing the lines to finding some skill players, but it's a group that has two Day 1 starters at key positions and then has a handful of players who should be first-year contributors up until Minshew. Detroit's depth at most of these positions just wasn't good enough last year, and I think that becomes an emphasis with the extra picks on Day 3 after plugging a couple of major holes.

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