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But Saudi officials have given a different message in meetings with investors and analysts: the kingdom, OPEC’s largest producer, will accept oil prices below US$90 per barrel, and perhaps down to US$80, for as long as a year or two, according to people who have been briefed on the recent conversations.

The discussions, some in New York over the past week, offer the clearest sign yet that the kingdom is setting aside its longstanding de facto aim of holding prices at around US$100 a barrel for Brent crude in favour of retaining market share in years to come.

The Saudis appear to be betting lower prices – which could strain the finances of some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries – will be necessary to pave the way for higher revenue in the medium term, by curbing new investment and further increases in supply from places like the U.S. shale patch or ultra-deepwater, according to the sources, who declined to be identified due to the private nature of the discussions.

The conversations with Saudi officials did not offer any specific guidance on whether – or by how much – the kingdom might agree to cut output, a move many analysts are expecting in order to shore up a global market that is producing substantially more crude than it can consume. Saudi Arabia pumps around a third of OPEC’s oil, or about 9.7 million barrels a day.

Asked about coming Saudi output curbs, one Saudi official responded “What cuts?”, according to one of the sources.