The future of British-made television programmes such as Sherlock, Strictly Come Dancing and Broadchurch is under “serious threat” due to changes taking place in the industry, Tony Hall, the director general of the BBC, will warn.

The rise of Netflix, Amazon and Apple as forces in TV and a drop in advertising revenues for commercial broadcasters means that the amount spent on making programmes in Britain could fall by £500m a year over the next decade, Hall will say in a speech in Liverpool on Thursday.

A £500m drop is equivalent to more than 20% of the spending on British programmes. A decline of this magnitude could lead to a drop in the volume and breadth of programmes on television, but also the quality of shows, with Hall claiming that distinctiveness, risk-taking, and innovation would all be less likely.

The comments by the BBC director general represent one of the starkest warnings yet about the future of British television.

The £500m hole in funding has been identified in a report by Mediatique, which was specially commissioned by the BBC to look into the future of the industry.

Hall will describe the findings as “worrying” and add: “We have to face the reality that the British content we value and rely upon is under serious threat.”

The most watched programmes on British television this year were all made in Britain: One Love Manchester, the concert after the Manchester bombing, Broadchurch, Britain’s Got Talent, Sherlock and Strictly Come Dancing.

However, new streaming services such as Netflix are focusing on finding international hits rather than investing in domestic markets. As these services grow at a rapid pace, commercial broadcasters such as ITV are battling with a tough advertising market, which is a pivotal source of revenues.

Netflix is reported to have spent £100m on making The Crown, a drama series about the life of the Queen. However, while much of the spending on this programme was in the UK, Hall will say that overall the rise of Netflix, Amazon, and others in TV has not led to increased investment in British content and these global services are unlikely to make up even half of the £500m over the next decade.



“The reality is that their investment decisions are likely to focus increasingly on a narrow range of very expensive, very high-end content – big bankers that they can rely on to have international appeal and attract large, global audiences,” Hall will say.

“Even the most generous calculations suggest they are barely likely to make up half of the £500m British content gap over the decade ahead. And a more realistic forecast points to substantially less.”

Hall will say that the BBC should remain “a guardian of UK production”, with new Ofcom rules designed to force the broadcaster to focus on original British content during primetime”. However, Hall will warn the TV industry has “changed dramatically” and the BBC has to respond, hence the launch of BBC Studios as a commercial production arm that can make programmes for other broadcasters as well as the BBC.

“The BBC has always shown a great ability to adapt to new challenges and make them opportunities. If we get the response right now, and the rest of the industry does the same, then we can safeguard the future of homegrown content and, rather than British content diminishing, we can kickstart a new golden age for British production,” Hall will say.