Five months after a historic midterm that turned Orange County’s congressional delegation from mostly red to all blue — and nearly 11 months before California’s 2020 Presidential primary — no fewer than eight Republicans have officially launched campaigns to take those seats back in 2020.

What’s more, several other well-known Republicans are considering running in ’20, with more announcements expected soon.

The wave of early interest suggests the GOP is anxious to test whether last year’s Democratic wave in Orange County was a one-off created by huge political spending by outside interests, or a new normal brought on by political and demographic change.

That’s particularly true for the House seats flipped last year by Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, (CA-45) and Rep. Harley Rouda, D-Laguna Beach, (CA-48). In those two districts — plus CA-49, held by Rep. Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano — voter registration still favors Republicans over Democrats. A fourth district that touches the county, CA-39, now held by Rep. Gil Cisneros, D-Yorba Linda, only recently turned blue, by just 1 percentage point.

For now, political insiders suggest all four seats are favored to stay blue. Next year will be a presidential election year, and Democrat voters are expected to turn out in higher numbers than they did in the midterms. Also, President Donald Trump — who has lost ground with the type of suburban Republican voters who used to control Orange County politics — is expected to be on the ballot.

But at this same point in the ’18 election cycle, those same insiders would have told you Democrats were underdogs in the seats they now control. It’s evidence of just how quickly politics can shift.

Not last year’s Republicans

Many of the GOP candidates being courted to run in Orange County this cycle seem to match up with a national push by the party to increase its racial and gender diversity. Several GOP challengers in Orange County are expected to be Asian-American women.

That effort, in part, is a response to the idea that women and minorities who otherwise might consider GOP values and candidates have grown frustrated with a party increasingly catering to rural white voters.

It’s unclear if more diversity among GOP candidates will translate into more enthusiasm among GOP voters. It’s also unclear that Democrats will be able to muster the same kind of voter and volunteer enthusiasm to hold seats in ’20 that they churned up in their successful effort to flip House seats ’18.

Early reports suggest freshmen Democrats in the House are raising a lot of money for their re-elections. And Andy Orellana, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said the party is investing in local field managers to “capitalize on and harness that enthusiasm in 2020 across Orange County.”

On the other side, the question is whether the National Republican Congressional Committee and other GOP groups will see Orange County seats as worth trying to flip back. Media is so expensive in Southern California that the GOP potentially could win several seats in the Midwest for what it costs to win a single seat locally.

But Torunn Sinclair, spokeswoman for the NRCC, notes that money is just part of the equation. Democrat incumbents will have to run on their records and public statements, and she argues that their views are too far to the left for a county that, on paper, remains purple.

All of the early action adds up to a prediction everyone seems to agree on, summed up by Cal State Fullerton political science Professor Scott Spitzer:

“Orange County is going to be, once again, unusually, ground central in the congressional campaign.”

Already going after Porter

In November, Porter, a consumer protection attorney who taught at UC Irvine School of Law, beat two-term incumbent Rep. Mimi Walters by 4.2 percentage points. Since then, as a new representative, Porter has generated some buzz by asking tough questions of banking executives during committee hearings. She also supports Democratic positions on healthcare, environment and campaign finance reform.

Porter’s three-month record in congress has prompted three Republicans — all members of city councils — to begin active campaigns for the seat: Donald Sedgwick, a city councilman in Laguna Hills and owner of a wholesale jewelry company; Greg Raths, mayor of Mission Viejo and a retired Marine colonel; and Peggy Huang, a councilwoman from Yorba Linda and deputy state Attorney General.

But the big 2020 question in both parties is whether Porter will face a rematch with Walters.

Two days after the election — even before Porter had been declared the winner — Walters’ camp filed a 2020 Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission. That could have been a procedural move or a sign that Walters intends to run again. For now, it’s unclear. Neither Walters nor her former campaign chair responded to requests about her intentions for 2020, though observers say she’s not expected to run.

State data shows voter registration in CA-45 favors Republicans by about 5 points over Democrats.

Rouda faces new challengers

Rouda was a businessman and political newcomer last fall when won his first-ever campaign. But next year, Rouda won’t be running against the district’s long-time representative, Republican Dana Rohrabacher. That might make Rouda’s second campaign unexpectedly tougher.

Rohrabacher, a 15-term incumbent, had become known as “Putin’s favorite congressman” for his Russia-friendly views. What’s more, while Rouda campaigned by saying he wanted to go to congress to fight climate change, Rohrabacher told coastal voters that he disagrees with the idea that climate change is a man-made problem.

In Washington, Rouda has taken a leadership role in climate talks. Also, in the first quarter, his re-election effort reportedly banked more than $500,000 from nearly 3,000 donors, indicating he’s already in campaign mode.

But the 48th district, which covers much of coastal Orange County and stretches into Garden Grove, has the highest concentration of GOP voters still left in the county, with Republican registration outpacing Democrats by about 8 points. As a result, the seat is drawing attention from GOP candidates, declared and otherwise.

Three Republicans are already in the race: Brian Burley, an information technology entrepreneur who works as an analyst at USC; Caleb Sturges, a data scientist and economist for Peter Thiel’s nonprofit, The Seasteading Institute (which hopes to build floating cities on the ocean), and James Bradley, a Laguna Beach businessman who unexpectedly finished third last year in California’s U.S. Senate primary.

Two other Republicans, both Asian women — Michelle Steel, supervisor for the Second District, and former state senator Janet Nguyen — might jump in. Both women are experienced in local politics and connected to enough money to be serious contenders if they choose to take on Rouda.

Action building in south O.C.

Levin, a former environmental attorney, won by a wider margin than any other newcomer in Orange County, beating Republican challenger Diane Harkey last fall by about 13 percentage points, or nearly 38,000 votes. The arrival of a progressive Democrat in the seat that stretches from south Orange County to northern San Diego County marked a huge political switch, as the retiring Republican Darrell Issa — once known as the GOP’s “attack dog” — had represented the district since 2000.

In Washington, Levin has been named chair of the House Veterans’ Affairs Subcommittee on Economic Opportunity. Closer to home, he’s reported raising more than $430,000 in the first quarter, with some $650,000 cash on hand.

Levin also already faces challengers.

San Juan Capistrano Mayor Brian Maryott, who ran in the primary last year, has filed paperwork to mount another challenge. He argues that Levin is “too extreme” for a district that’s still narrowly red (Republicans outpace Democrats by about 4 points) citing the congressman’s support for the Green New Deal plan to combat climate change. And another local Republican — Steve Knoblock, a former council member in San Clemente — also has filed paperwork to challenge Levin, though it’s unclear if he’s actively campaigning.

Lisa Bartlett, supervisor for Orange County’s Fifth District, could become the biggest name to challenge Levin. She says she’s been approached about running for the seat. But, for now, she’s not in.

Nothing going — yet — in 39th

Cisneros, a Navy veteran and political newcomer who won a $266 million lottery in 2010, beat Republican Young Kim by 3.2 percentage points. The seat was vacant following the retirement of 13-term Republican incumbent, Rep. Ed Royce.

In office, Cisneros has focused on issues related to veterans, backing bills to expand benefits and protect benefits for former service members who are medical marijuana patients.

Officially, Cisneros isn’t yet being challenged for reelection. But Kim, a Korean American who served on the State Assembly and worked in Royce’s office for many years, is widely expected to make a bid. Reached by phone Monday, Kim said she wasn’t ready to make an official announcement.

Other OC Congressional seats

Three other districts (CA-46, CA-47 and CA-38) are either entirely in Orange County or touch parts of it, and all are represented by incumbent Democrats — Rep. Lou Correa, D-Santa Ana; Rep. Alan Lowenthal, D-Long Beach; and Rep. Linda Sanchez, D-Whittier. Voter registration data shows Democrats outnumber Republicans by wide margins in all three districts.

To date, those incumbents face no official challengers, and it’s unclear if any known Republican contenders are considering campaigns.