TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – The American conservative think-tank, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), on Jan. 24 released a brief on Taiwan’s demographic outlook, and how it is likely to impact Taiwan’s national defense capabilities.

The report is entitled “Taiwan’s demographic crunch and its military implications,” and explains that as Taiwan’s elderly population increases to a greater percentage of the total population, more government funds will necessarily be diverted towards the care and accommodation of the elderly.



According to the brief, this will negatively impact the national defense capability of Taiwan in several ways.



First and most obvious, is the decreasing number of able bodied youth available to defend the country and its rapidly increasing population of the elderly. As a 2017 report from the Ministry of National Defense noted “the impact of (Taiwan's) social and economic environment, along with a low birth rate, has been to reduce available manpower, negatively impacting our troop replenishment and operational strength.”

Second, in the event of necessary conscription (i.e. in a full scale invasion scenario), the reduced working age population would create a further burden, which is that siphoning conscripts from the working class would negatively impact Taiwan’s industrial output, which would be crucial to keep at an optimum level of production during wartime.

And third, as Taiwanese society becomes more focused on quality of life for the elderly, representatives serving constituencies heavily weighted in favor of the interests of the elderly are certain to target defense spending to reallocate funds towards pension programs and other social infrastructure to serve their needs.

This will further exacerbate a problem that Taiwan is already dealing with; namely, how to maintain top of the line military technology to keep national defense capability viable.

The report suggests a few simple measures to tackle the problem before the situation becomes too dire. The three primary suggestions are all interlinked with one another.

The report suggests that developing strong alliances with Washington as well as Tokyo are some of the most important foreign policy directives that Taiwan can pursue. As a conservative U.S. organization, it is not surprising that the AEI would suggest that Taipei stick close to Washington.

A second suggestion is that Taiwan should follow the U.S. example and begin transitioning towards an all-voluntary military. By reducing the active-duty force currently filled by young men serving a minimum required service, a smaller core of better paid, and more effective career soldiers could be cultivated.



The costs of maintaining a larger group of less driven and less effective soldiers could theoretically be redistributed to provide for higher quality training, and better incentives to attract long-term service, as well as provide for new technology to balance the decreased manpower.



Related to new technology, the third suggestion is for the military to begin investing in automation, robotics, and new weapons platforms, to create a small, smart, military force that is more technology driven and less reliant on manpower generally.

Given the government’s overall push for Taiwan to become a “smart” society at the cutting edge of technological innovation in the 21st century, it seems logical that the initiative would also extend to the armed services.

The brief from AEI can be read online here.



