P OLITICIANS LONG for voters to think they are just like them. In the Welsh constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire, which is holding a by-election on August 1st, that means demonstrating farming credentials. At a hustings organised by a farmers’ union, the Labour candidate’s claim of agricultural roots is only slightly undermined by his disclosure that he is a lawyer. The woman from the UK Independence Party, who champions culling badgers and hunting foxes, proudly tells the crowd her father was a farmer. But the Brexit Party’s nominee tops them all. His grandfather was a shepherd on the Brecon Beacons, he says: “One horse, one dog, 14 children.” If the candidates could have arrived by tractor, they surely would have done.

Chris Davies, who won the last election, in 2017, for the Tories with a majority of 8,000, spends much of his time apologising. In April he was convicted of making a false expenses claim after faking two invoices to split a genuine cost (£700, or $870, for office photographs) between two budgets. About 10,000 constituents signed a recall petition, forcing the by-election. Even so, Mr Davies is standing again, hoping his barrister was wrong to claim his career would be in “tatters”. “There was no financial gain in this and no financial intent,” he insists. “It was just a mess-up.”

But Mr Davies’s expense account does not explain the buzz about the vote in Westminster. That concerns the decision by Plaid Cymru and the Green Party not to field candidates, in order to give a better chance of victory to Mr Davies’s closest rival, Jane Dodds of the Liberal Democrats. Pacts are rare in British politics. But if this pro-Remain alliance pays off, more might follow, particularly if there is a Brexit-themed general election later in the year. On the other side of the divide, polls show Tory members are keen for their party to strike such deals with the Brexit Party.

The election will also be a significant first test for Britain’s next prime minister, who will take over from Theresa May on July 24th. Mrs May’s government floundered when the Democratic Unionist Party, which props it up, joined hardline Tory backbenchers in refusing three times to endorse her Brexit deal. If Mr Davies is thrown out, as looks likely, the new leader will be left with a working majority of just three, making the government even more vulnerable to a no-confidence vote. Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson, rivals for the top job, made this point in a local paper advert last week, claiming Mr Davies would “support us in Parliament to get Brexit done”.

Even so, Remainers should not get too excited if the Lib Dems win. Since just over half of voters in the constituency backed Brexit in the referendum, Ms Dodds has not made her pro-Remain stance the centrepiece of her campaign. “Westminster couldn’t be further away,” she says, over an ice-cream in a lavender field. Instead she stresses “community issues”, like better broadband and keeping banks and libraries open. Though Ms Dodds praises the courage of the parties who stood aside for her, the pact is unlikely to make much difference: Plaid Cymru won only 3% of the vote in 2017 and the Greens did not stand.

Tories hope that, in a place where locals cherish generations-old family ties, voters will judge Mr Davies on more than his recent conviction. Some seem willing to accept that he made a mistake. “It’s much ado about nothing,” says one. “I’ve met him a few times and he seems a tidy chap.” At the hustings, a woman struggles to ask a question as a male-voice choir begins a rehearsal upstairs. If the candidates were animals, she asks, what would they be? Mr Davies plumps for a local ram, from “quality stock”. If he defies the bookies’ odds and his barrister’s prediction, he would surely more closely resemble a phoenix. ■

Vacancy: The Economist is looking to hire a staff writer to cover British economics. Journalistic experience is not necessary; the ability to write clearly and entertainingly is. For details of how to apply, visit economist.com/britainjob2019. The deadline is August 4th.