Joseph S. Nye says: “No one knows what China’s future holds.” Reading his commentary, one raises the question how long the current form of governance will last. For the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), it is all about political survival. It explains why the leadership and its apparatchik are desperate to preserve power, ruling with an iron grip on every aspect of the society. The CCP believes it is its leadership’s duty to determine what is in the best interest of the Chinese people.

The author warns against any doom prophecy, because “there is a long history of faulty predictions of systemic collapse or stagnation.” For the time being, “neither outcome is likely,” and the CCP looks forward to marking its 100th anniversary in 2021. There are no signs of regime change looming on the horizon, contrary to numerous forecasts of the CCP's demise in the past. However, China “is facing several challenges that are far more serious than many observers seem to think.”

The People’s Republic will celebrate its centenary in 2049. Countries like Japan, the US, Germany, or Britain, do not worry much about the future of their political system, because they will most likely maintain the status quo in the decades to come, even if Britain would become a republic. But with China, any thought about its future is accompanied by apprehension. Due to its size, any chaos following a regime change would have destabilising effects on the rest of the world.

The author highlights “at least five major long-term problems confronting China.” The country has been grappling with low birth rates and an aging population, despite abolishing its one-child policy. It will be ill-prepared for the rising health costs, which will pose a huge burden on the economy.

For decades, leaders had been complacent, reluctant to oversee judicial reforms that address inequalities and grievances. Discrimination against migrant workers in urban areas, land grab and resentment against corrupt officials could spark social unrest.

Far from instituting further market reforms, Xi Jinping is intensifying efforts to entrench China’s hybrid model of state capitalism, in which politics and economics are inseparable. Strong government intervention had helped create a debt-fueled economy and boost export, thanks to subsidies to state-owned companies that can beat its overseas rivals with lower prices.

The monolithic CCP seeks to “strengthen the Party’s monopoly on power;” while failing to adapt to the political reality on the ground – the rise of a burgeoning urban middle-class. With rising incomes and living standards, the young and educated demand reforms: democratisation, political pluralism etc. “As economic growth slows and social problems increase,” the Party will resort to nationalist rhetoric in order to distract people from their real problems.

China has an image problem abroad, due to its crackdown on activists and dissidents, its mass surveillance, and detention of ethnic minorities. Authoritarian regimes are not concerned about China’s human-rights record. Yet Beijing does care about its global image – it has been spending billions on burnishing it. But it has not been a “good return on its investment,” as Beijing has failed to “increase its attractiveness to other countries.”

The author has not mentioned environmental concerns. China is grappling with the rising number of sources of pollution in the country, from 5,9m in 2010 to 9m today. His conclusion is that “China is a country with great strengths, but also important weaknesses,” and that the US “should avoid exaggerating either.”

There is no way to stop China from rising, and “the US-China relationship will be a cooperative rivalry.” He also points out: “No country, including China, is likely to surpass the US in overall power in the next decade or two, but the US will have to learn to share power as China and others gain strength.” He urges the US to maintain its “international alliances and domestic institutions.” It will have “a comparative advantage,” if it has international backing in its foreign policies. A message that Trump will hardly heed.