Following a record breaking October and an excellent first weekend of November, Universal hopes to keep the ball rolling with this weekends release of The Grinch, the lates animated feature from Illumination Entertainment, which is poised to take first with an opening of over $60 million. Meanwhile, Sony and Paramount with two R rated action titles, The Girl in the Spider’s Web and Overlord, though both may struggle to top $10 million.

The Grinch is certainly launching a bit early for a Christmas title – a full two weeks before Thanksgiving – which may or may not work in its favor. Over the Thanksgiving holiday, it faces early competition from Ralph Breaks the Internet, but if it launched closer to Christmas it would have to deal with Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, both of which are looking like hefty contenders. As a result, slipping The Grinch into an earlier spot shouldn’t be too much of an issue, especially considering how immensely popular the story is; for reference, the 2000 live-action adaptation scored the fifth largest opening of all time at its release.

Illumination titles typically come cheap, and The Grinch is no exception; the title carries a price tag of just $75 million, a fraction of the $200 million that has become standard for Pixar. Additionally, total prints and advertising costs were reportedly in the range of just $80 million, meaning this will generate an immense amount of profit for Universal. Of the 7 fully animated features produced by Illumination, 6 of those were able to pull in more than $500 million a piece.

Next up is Overlord, the new Paramount genre thriller set in World War 2. It’s been a bit of a troubled road getting the film into theaters, however, as it was originally reported that it was set to be the next installment in the Cloverfield anthology. However, after The Cloverfield Paradox was dumped to Netflix with nearly universally negative response, it seems likely that the studio decided to release it as its own creation and ditch the branding. It also was originally scheduled to be released on the 26th of October – a natural date for a horror thriller – but had to escape when it became clear that Halloween was going to be a monster of a competitor.

As a result, Overlord isn’t going to be able to screen in as many IMAX or Premium screens as expected, since it will be sharing them with The Grinch and Bohemian Rhapsody. Overlord was produced for a fairly modest $38 million – less than half of what was originally rumored – though that doesn’t matter for much if it fails to deliver an opening this weekend. Tracking has it between high-single digits to low teen millions, which would be very disappointing considering the reviews and unique premise.

Next up is Sony’s reboot of the Dragon Tattoo franchise, in the form of the very clumsily titled The Girl in the Spider’s Web: A New Dragon Tattoo Story. The original US adaptation of Dragon Tattoo was released in 2011, where it rode a massive wave of buzz, but didn’t do particularly well, collecting just over $100 million domestic on a budget of $90 million. As a result, plans for a full trilogy helmed by director David Fincher were scrapped, and the franchise existed in limbo for some time, until Don’t Breathe director Fede Alvarez was attached to direct the spin-off title, under a new cast and with a much smaller $43 million budget.

Spider’s Web seems like a far more accessible title, sacrificing the originals mammoth 160 minute runtime and bleak, brutal R rated torture sequences for a more mainstream action title – a move which garnered mixed responses after its initial trailer dropped. Right now, Sony is expecting an opening of around $8 million, which would be thoroughly disappointing if they’re expecting to turn this into a franchise.

Amazon is shifting their emphasis onto Beautiful Boy and away from Suspiria, as the Steve Carrell Drama will expand further into 777 locations, while Suspiria is clocking out with no plans to expand into more locations, despite a current domestic gross of just $1.2 million versus its $20 million price tag. Among holdovers, Bohemian Rhapsody should be at $30 million, plus or minus a bit either way, while The Nutcracker should take a hefty blow against much more appealing competition from The Grinch.

Predictions

The Grinch – $61 million Bohemian Rhapsody – $31 million The Nutcracker and the Four Realms – $10 million Overlord – $9.6 million The Girl in the Spider’s Web – $9.1 million