TORONTO — What if Matt Nichols leaves Winnipeg?

It’s a question that isn’t getting a lot of play so far because one of free agency’s underlying assumptions is that Nichols will be a Winnipeg Blue Bomber in 2017.

Fair, probably, as the Bombers need Nichols and Nichols needs the Bombers.

The second-year Bomber had his breakout season in 2016, leading his team to its first playoff appearance since 2011. And while Nichols helped the Bombers succeed, the Bombers gave Nichols his first opportunity to succeed as well — to become a regular Canadian Football League starter.

Like always, there’s a but.

It took Nichols until his fifth professional season, at age 29, to finally break out and become the quarterback many believed he’d be. And while he played like a top quarterback in 2016, is that what his future holds? That’s the question the Bombers must ask themselves.

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Kyle Walters was fortunate to wash his hands clean of Drew Willy’s contract after the former starter was benched this season. It turns out Willy wasn’t the quarterback the Bombers thought he was when they ponied up to give the Buffalo graduate starter’s money.

Nichols is a year younger but hardly any more experienced than Willy was at such a point.

Obviously those two quarterbacks aren’t similar but the point is, the Bombers have to tread carefully. A reunion between Winnipeg and Matt Nichols makes the most sense out of anything, but at what cost? Does Walters believe Nichols is the long-term answer at quarterback or merely a stop gap?

The difference in salary between stop gap and ‘the guy’ is substantial.

And what if Nichols leaves Winnipeg? That might be the biggest domino to fall this off-season — maybe even bigger than Darian Durant.

Nichols leaving Winnipeg would put a quarterback on the market who’s coming off a career year and just hitting his prime. It would also leave a hole in the Winnipeg Blue Bombers’ depth chart.

The Bombers don’t have a suitable replacement for Nichols right now but possible external candidates could be Durant, James Franklin, Henry Burris and Ricky Ray, among others. Last year’s backup in Kevin Glenn, currently headed towards free agency, could also be an option.

Nichols, on the other hand, could be in for an unlikely reunion with Chris Jones in Saskatchewan; a renewed partnership with Drew Willy in Toronto; or a chance to start ahead of Vernon Adams Jr. in Montreal. The other teams have established starters under centre.

It’s more question than answer at this point, and there’s a pretty good chance Nichols re-ups before free agency kicks off on Feb. 14. But if not, who knows the cause and effect?

No one can be sure but it’s a storyline that should be watched closely this off-season, especially in the coming months.