Oct 28, 2019

The death of the Islamic State’s erstwhile caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, raises major questions about the eschatological group’s future. It is difficult to predict how IS' momentum and popularity will change in Iraq and Syria in the aftermath of Baghdadi’s death. It is also unclear how this symbolic event will play out in terms of the terror group's operations, strategies, tactics, priorities and structure. As the extremist group fights to regain influence and power in these two countries, the ascendancy of Baghdadi’s successor could lead to divisions and internal struggles that severely weaken IS. By the same token, new leadership also has the potential to re-energize the terror franchise and help IS achieve its goals.

It is logical to assume that IS began preparing for Baghdadi’s death long ago. Ever since many state and non-state actors began waging military operations against the group in 2014 — with the capture or killing of Baghdadi a high priority for many of them — he was a target at every moment throughout the final years of his life. In August, the IS-linked Amaq news outlet reported that Baghdadi anointed his successor, Abdullah Qardash. The decision to select a successor was never confirmed by IS, and some have disputed the authenticity of the Amaq statement.

Who is Qardash and why did Baghdadi select him?

Qardash claims to hail from the Quraysh tribe, a requirement for the caliph under Sunni jurisprudence. In addition to his family’s lineage and his education, Qardash’s roles in Iraq under Saddam Hussein, the US occupation and the years of the caliphate’s existence are important factors too.

From the mostly Sunni district of Tal Afar, Qardash, who has Turkmen roots, graduated from the Islamic Sciences college in Mosul. Nicknamed "the professor,” he served in Saddam's army as an officer. Following the US/UK-led invasion and occupation of Iraq and the subsequent capture of the Iraqi dictator in 2003, Qardash joined many other Iraqi Sunnis in turning to violent extremism. Along with Baghdadi, Qardash was imprisoned at Camp Bucca near the Iraqi-Kuwaiti border after being captured by US forces because of his links to al-Qaeda, for which he served as a religious commissary and a general Sharia jurist. While incarcerated in Camp Bucca, Qardash and many other future al-Qaeda/IS militants first met Baghdadi and were influenced by his radicalization, earning the prison the name of the birthplace of IS.