Delay in Assembly elections gives party an edge over NC and PDP, say analysts

The Election Commission’s decision to hold Parliament and Assembly elections separately gives an edge to the Bharatiya Janata Party and allows it to reframe J&K poll politics and stock up vote capital, while reducing the chances of the regional parties to throw up any surprise.

The enthusiasm shown by over 11 mainstream political parties in J&K during the meetings with the EC team on March 4-5 in favour of simultaneous polls was in contrast to their earlier stand. The main regional parties — National Conference and Peoples Democratic Party —had warned against holding elections for Anantnag parliamentary constituency (vacant since April 2016 when PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti became J&K Chief Minister and vacated her seat), urban local bodies and panchayat, citing “unfavourable security situation” all along.

Rural poll test

However, the EC went ahead with the ULB and panchayat elections, notwithstanding a stepped up militancy and rising death counts of civilians at encounter sites, besides the NC and PDP's decision to stay away from the process. The poll results may have been dismal in Kashmir Valley with less than 8% turnout, but Governor Satya Pal Malik congratulated the police and the civil administration for “peaceful polls, with militants failing to even clip a wing of a bird”. So the security apparatus passed a very crucial test ahead of the Parliament and Assembly polls.

In contrast, the EC’s decision to delay Assembly elections on the security grounds, experts said, only allows the BJP to reshape its politics and attempt at favourable alliances with smaller regional parties like Peoples Conference and Independents, if it returns to power at the Centre again.

“Simultaneous polls would have meant easy choices for the electorate on the basis of perceptions the parties shaped up in J&K, whether they ruled or were in the Opposition. However, delaying the polls gives the BJP an edge over the regional parties, like NC and PDP. In case Prime Minister Narendra Modi returns to power in Delhi, voter behaviour is bound to change in the Hindu belt in Jammu,” said Gull Mohammad Wani, professor at the Department of Political Science, Kashmir University.

No grand alliance?

Despite grand alliances being stitched together across the country against the BJP, the Congress, the NC and the PDP are forced to keep their cards close to their chest. The parties are finding it hard to decided on any pre-poll alliances, with the EC decision keeping the suspense alive on the BJP’s State poll plans.

The delay, Prof. Wani said, may not emerge as a game changer for the BJP in the long run. “This delay means little on the ground. People have learnt their lessons the hard way in Kashmir and the choices are made. The voting pattern is already drawn in J&K, with region and religion dominating the poll narratives in the Kashmir Valley, Jammu and Ladakh,” he added.

Early poll advantage

The NC did see a possible boost to its poll prospects in early and simultaneous elections, with the PDP image taking a nosedive in Kashmir after its alliance with the BJP. “Public memory is short. The more the time passes, the more are the chances of people forgetting the PDP’s follies and the bloodshed witnessed during its rule. It will only cost the NC and not the BJP in the Valley. The PDP will be happy with the delay,” said Prof. Wani.

Separate Assembly and Lok Sabha polls will allow the BJP to field the party’s bigwigs like Narendra Modi himself to turn the tide and campaign in J&K. Besides, several decisions taken by Governor Malik may also help the BJP’s poll prospects. Mr. Malik’s decision to grant additional financial and administrative powers to Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council and also divisional status to Ladakh region is being seen as the Centre’s concessions. These measures come at a time when the BJP failed to win a single seat in 14 wards in the urban local bodies elections in Kargil and the party's face, Thupstan Chhewang, former Lok Sabha member, resigned over the BJP’s "negligence of Leh”. Many more measures pushed through the Governor are bound to swing voters’ mood in Jammu and Ladakh.

‘Undemocratic move’

“Continuing with President’s rule only means erosion of the rights of people of J&K. The EC's decision [to hold separate Lok Sabha and Assembly polls] is a conservative move to allow the Central government retain control over J&K in an undemocratic way,” said Prof. Sidiq Wahid, former vice-chancellor of Islamic University of Sciences and Technology, Kashmir.

Another flip side of delaying the elections in J&K is that no political buffer is left between the State and the people of J&K, fuelling more alienation. The delay only perpetuates anger and anxiety over the issue of special status granted under Article 35A and Article 370, which faces counter petitions before the Supreme Court, and would require an elected government to present its case.