AFC division races

AFC East

The East is all but wrapped for New England. Miami would need to win out and see the Pats lose out to steal the division, unlikely for any number of reasons at this point. New England finishes up in Denver, home for the Jets, and then in Miami. This week looks like the last real hurdle for the one seed and home field advantage. Both Kansas City and Oakland play Denver again, difficult schedules plus the Pats have a one game lead. Even if New England loses this week, the Chiefs or Raiders would need to win out to steal the one seed. Win in Denver and it’s more or less a wrap. New England isn’t quite there yet but the path is clear. They’ll likely be resting by week 17.

AFC North

Pittsburgh is the clear front runner here with a one game lead over Baltimore and the better remaining schedule. Pittsburgh hosts Baltimore in week 16 and also gets a home finale against the Browns instead of the Raven’s game against the pesky Eagles this week. You never know with the Steelers lately, but they have a great shot to win out and get to 11–5 and a three seed. Even if they don’t win out, a win against Baltimore next week basically clinches the division. Baltimore still controls its destiny though. Win out against Philly and then in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati and the Ravens would be division champs.

AFC South

The South is still wide open with Houston and Tennessee at 7–6 and Indianapolis trailing at 6–7. Despite the three-team race, there’s a clear order here. Houston is still the definite favorite, Brock Osweiler warts and all. They are home for Jacksonville and Cincinnati before going to Tennessee in the finale. That soft schedule likely puts them at 9–6 heading into the final week. If the Titans lose a game before that — and they play the Chiefs this week — Houston will have already clinched the division since they own the tiebreak. The Texans control their destiny and are in if they win out and probably even if they win two of the three.

Tennessee also controls its destiny and will make the playoffs if they win in Kansas City and Jacksonville and then home against Houston. The Titans are just 1–3 in the division so far though, and that may doom them because it costs them the tiebreak and an easy win or two. Lose this week and Tennessee’s best scenario is 9–7 with a 6–6 conference record, probably not good enough to win the division or the Wild Card. This is close to an elimination game. Unless the Titans win in KC, this is Houston’s division.

The Colts are basically out of it. They need to win out in a difficult schedule with road trips to Minnesota and Oakland on tap and they need Tennessee to lose to Kansas City but beat Houston and they need one more Houston loss. In this mess of a division anything is possible, but Colts fans shouldn’t get their hopes up.

AFC West

Denver is technically still alive for the division, but the bad overtime loss to the Chiefs almost certainly doomed them. To win the division now they’ll need to win out over New England, Kansas City, and Oakland and see another Raiders loss and two more Chiefs losses. Not happening.

That means it’s Kansas City and Oakland fighting for the division and the first round bye, most likely as the two seed unless New England falls apart. Though the teams are tied at 10–3, Kansas City is in the lead because of the season sweep, so they win any ties. That means Oakland could technically win out, get to 13–3, and still be the five seed.

Because of that tiebreak scenario and the fact that the Raiders don’t get to play the Chiefs again, the division is pretty simple. The Chiefs still host the Titans and Broncos before a trip to San Diego. Winning out wins the division, but they’d likely need New England to lose twice to steal the one seed. If the Chiefs lose once, the Raiders can win out against Indy and in San Diego and Denver and win the division. Basically Oakland needs to win more of the final three games than Kansas City to take the division and the two seed.

Denver probably can’t win the division, but games the final two weeks against the Chiefs and Raiders will likely decide it anyway.

AFC Wild Cards

New England, Kansas City, and Oakland should take three of the six AFC playoff spots — each clinches with just one more win in the final three. That takes up one of the Wild Card spots as well. If the Chiefs win the next two games and the Raiders lose once, that gives the West to Kansas City and basically locks Oakland in as the five seed, enough so that they could probably even rest in week 17 before a trip to the AFC South champ — not the worst outcome in the world despite missing a bye.

That means there’s really only one AFC Wild Card realistically up for grabs, with the Dolphins, Bills, Steelers or Ravens, Broncos, and Texans, Titans, or Colts pushing for the spot. In all likelihood, three of those eight teams are in while the rest watch from their couches. And it looks wide open.

Denver and Miami are in the best position at 8–5, a game ahead of everyone else, but both have big roadblocks in the way. For Denver, the schedule is brutal — home for New England, at Kansas City, and home for Oakland. The good news is that if they do win out, they’ll control their destiny, beating Miami on the shared opponent tiebreaker. If Denver gets two of the wins they get to 10–6, 7–5 in conference. That would give them a pretty good shot. Just one more win, or none, and they’re probably toast.

Miami has a far easier schedule but will have to navigate it without QB Ryan Tannehill. They play the Jets and Bills on the road before a home finale against the Patriots where Tannehill may return. If Matt Moore can lead Miami to two tough road divisional wins, the Dolphins will be in great shape. If they win one, they’ll probably need to beat New England on the final day. The Dolphins are big fans of the Pats the next few weeks, rooting hard for Belichick to rest his starters week 17. That may be their saving grace.

If both Denver and Miami falter and get stuck on nine wins, which is the most likely scenario at this point, then this thing gets thrown wide open.

The nightmare scenario for AFC Wild Card contenders is for both AFC North teams to win out, but with Baltimore beating Pittsburgh week 16. That would put both teams at 10–6 and give the Ravens the division, but Pittsburgh would have a very strong chance at the Wild Card at 10–6 and 8–4 in the conference. The Dolphins and Ravens beat Pittsburgh in a head-to-head tiebreaker, but the Steelers beat just about anyone else and also win any three-or-more-team tiebreaker. AFC Wild Card teams will be rooting for Pittsburgh to win out and knock Baltimore out of the race, though even 9–7 would leave the Ravens strongly in the mix with an 8–4 conference record. If Miami and Denver falter, the AFC North is the most likely beneficiary.

It’s not possible for both Houston and Tennessee to get to 10 wins since they play each other, so an AFC South Wild Card team would have to be 9–7 — either of those teams or Indianapolis. The Titans and/or Colts would be 9–7 and 6–6 in the conference in that scenario, so they’d lose most tiebreakers. The most likely AFC south Wild Card scenario would be the Texans and Titans winning out until week 17 when Tennessee beats Houston to take the division. That would leave Houston 9–7 and 7–5 in conference, but they still lose head-to-head tiebreakers to Denver and Baltimore. Houston’s best Wild Card shot is to be tied at 9 wins with at least two other teams, none of which include an AFC North squad. They should probably just win the division. An AFC South Wild Card would mean disaster — both for these next few weeks of playoff contenders and for us the viewers watching the playoffs.

Buffalo actually has a solid shot at 9–7 with home games against the Browns and Dolphins before a trip to the Jets. That’s Robert Griffin, Matt Moore, and Bryce Petty at QB. Winning out would give Buffalo nine wins but they’d still be only 6–6 in conference and they’d lose almost any tiebreak scenario. Basically Rex Ryan and Tyrod Taylor are playing for their jobs, but boy do they have the schedule to do it. Then again, a home loss to the 0–13 to the Browns this weekend would surely be the final straw for both.

Most likely AFC playoff scenario

1. New England 13+ wins (home field advantage)

2. Kansas City 12+ (bye)

3. Pittsburgh 10+ (home)

4. Houston 9+ (home)

5. Oakland 11+

6. Miami 10

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7. Baltimore/Denver/Buffalo 9

As open as everything is right now, all but the final Wild Card could well be locked up heading into week 17 in the most likely scenario. That would leave Miami, Baltimore, and Denver in that order fighting for the Wild Card, and again a resting Patriots opponent for Miami would be huge. A Denver home win over New England this weekend would be a double whammy.