| By

Off the keyboard of Geoffrey Chia

Follow us on Twitter @doomstead666

Friend us on Facebook

Published on the Doomstead Diner on October 2015

Discuss this article at the Collapse Narratives Table inside the Diner

THAT WAS THEN, THIS IS NOW… SO WHAT'S NEXT?

(This article includes a FREE satirical sci-fi novel)

Geoffrey Chia is a Australian Physician who has written many provocative articles including "The Brisbane Institute is a Brisbane Prostitute"

THAT WAS THEN

Eric Arthur Blair wrote under the pseudonym George Orwell for unclear reasons, possibly to avoid the flack he might receive as a result of expressing his political opinions. As it turned out, his pseudonym was a badly kept secret. His novel 1984 was more a reflection of the anxieties and social concerns of 1948 (the year it was written), than a prediction of the future world of 1984. In many ways, the terrible dystopia he painted may have been an attempt to galvanise the public of 1948 to oppose the forces of totalitarianism, an attempt to prevent the nightmare of 1984 from actually becoming reality.

1984 is possibly the most important novel ever written in the English language and remains essential reading for everyone today.

I too wrote a satirical dystopian novel "Icecubes in Rockets" under a poorly disguised pseudonym more than 10 years ago. I had certainly received plenty of flack for my condemnation of the invasion of Iraq around that time. As Orwell wrote: speaking truth is an act of treason in an empire of lies.

Here is my novel in full:

DOWNLOAD THE PDF HERE

"Icecubes in Rockets" was more a reflection of the politics and times of 2003/2004 than an attempt to predict the future. It was written in a fit of pique to protest against the US Republican Neoconartists and their devious cabal of psychopaths. Beyond that central theme however, it diverged into multiple seemingly unrelated threads which then came together at the end. The themes remain, unfortunately, all too relevant today. It is clear humans have learned absolutely nothing from the mess we have created. Icecubes is the only epic tale, to my knowledge, where a piece of shit has such a major impact (literally).

A colleague of mine, Professor Frank Lepre, commented (without irony) all those years ago that my story describing the end of the world seemed too optimistic. He was right. Going by current trends in 2015, many events in the novel will clearly never transpire, not least because it will be impossible for humanity to mount multiple missions to Mars. We now face impending energy constraints which all but ensure that the collapse of global industrial society will be complete by 2030. The reasons for this will be outlined in my next article.

THIS IS NOW

As far as historical projections which attempted to plot our future trajectory are concerned, the original Limits to Growth project by scientists from MIT published in 1972, which was relentlessly pilloried by perfidious economists for decades, has held the test of time better than any known initiative so far. LtG projections have been vindicated by reviews in recent years, conducted in particular by Dr Ugo Bardi and Dr Graham Turner. Dr Turner in 2008 and again in 2014 collected updated data, re-ran the computer analyses and demonstrated that real world events over the past 40+ years have closely tracked the standard model of the original LtG projections. Events start to go pear shaped from 2015, exactly what is happening now.

The LtG scientists considered a wide variety of models. Even favourably tweaking inputs in other scenarios using impossibly optimistic assumptions (eg new pollution control technologies which would immediately respond to critical thresholds, or having limitless resources as a result of super-efficient recycling) could not avoid ultimate collapse, because it enabled other aspects of each model (especially population) to spiral out of control. Collapse could be delayed by "band aid" technofixes, but when it eventually occurred was even more catastrophic.

The only realistic scenario which did not result in catastrophic collapse was the "stablised world" model, a multifactorial approach which primarily required the reduction of material consumption and the prevention of excessive population growth (commencing from the 1970s).

Global society today can be likened to a patient who has long pursued unrestrained overindulgence and previously received (but ignored) this advice from his physician: reduce your food consumption and prevent excessive sideways growth, or eventually suffer dire consequences such as a heart attack. Harbingers of the heart attack could be angina, worsening hypertension, worsening diabetes or worsening sleep apnoea.

What we are witnessing today are the harbingers of impending collapse in the form of jittery economies on the verge of breakdown (largely related to Peak Oil and financial bubbles), more frequent record-breaking extreme climate events, worsening pollution (especially in China from industry and in South East Asia from Indonesian forest fires), mass extinctions around the world and regional wars breaking out in vulnerable locations, causing the highest number of refugees since WW2.

Pundits who insist that global collapse can still be avoided, must explain to us in detail just exactly how this can be achieved given our current circumstances. When challenged on specifics, those cornucopians paint vague unrealistic pictures of magical sudden worldwide cessation of industrial/agricultural emissions (which magically does not result in economic collapse, food shortage and dieoff), magical cessation of conflicts, voluntary population stabilisation then decline to a steady state, equitable global distribution of resources, discovery of unlimited unpolluting energy and free movement of all refugees, welcomed without restriction into all the richer countries. Furthermore the environment magically repairs itself despite having 10 billion people consuming tremendous global resources by mid century. Yeah, right.

Promoting forlorn unrealistic hope to the public at this late stage is not only fantasist denial but may well be irresponsible. It diverts the audiences' attention towards useless campaigns and feel-good but ineffective activities. It robs them of the time and energy they could otherwise use to engage in worthwhile action. Our remaining time and energy are finite and must not be squandered.

In the words of Graham Turner himself in 2014, "Regrettably, the alignment of data trends with the LTG dynamics indicates that the early stages of collapse could occur within a decade, or might even be underway. This suggests, from a rational risk-based perspective, that we have squandered the past decades, and that preparing for a collapsing global system could be even more important than trying to avoid collapse." Turner, G. (2014) 'Is Global Collapse Imminent ?', MSSI Research Paper No. 4, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of Melbourne

I believe the only worthwhile action now is to prepare at community level for societal collapse and to strive for local water, food and energy independence, while minimising fossil fuel input. If you can do so, your actions will speak much louder than words. You will then show others how to live a comfortable, low footprint lifestyle and can be a model for others to emulate. Here is one suggestion: http://www.resilience.org/resource-detail/2544932-building-a-tiny-house

Not everyone can be saved, indeed the majority of humanity will die horribly in the coming decades, due to their inability or refusal to change their ways. However those who are able and willing to transform their lifestyles, who can learn how to do more with less, will have hope.

SO WHAT'S NEXT?

Just because global parameters tracked the upside curves of the standard model of LtG closely, does not necessarily mean we will also track the downside curves closely. In the standard model, global population falls smoothly by about half a billion per decade from around 2030 ("falls smoothly" is a euphemism for ordered die-off). I believe catastrophic disorderly sudden die-off is more likely than the smooth (albeit non-linear) downward trends seen in the standard model LtG curves, and will occur sooner than expected. This is not a criticism of the LtG scientists' sterling work, indeed we must acknowledge and admire their outstanding intelligence and foresight and their exceptional ability to process multiple variables simultaneously, utilising appropriate positive and negative feedback loops. However climbing up a slope is always harder and slower, but gravity assisted descent is always easier and faster, especially if you fall off a cliff. Furthermore it is impossible to plug-in the multiplicity of unexpected possibilities into the LtG analytical models and even if we could, it is impossible to know which particular scenario may be our fate. That does not prevent us from pondering some of them. Dr Bardi himself has alluded to the "Seneca cliff", which he feels is more likely than gradual decline. Dr Turner himself has alluded to the "butterfly effects" of unexpected, seemingly small events which can markedly alter the trajectory of societies. Other commentators have used the term "black swan" events.

What does sudden catastrophic collapse feel like? Just ask surviving Syrians who thought they were living semi-normal lives one day, but the next day experienced the demolition of their homes by incoming artillery. I showed that the Syrian civil war was a clear manifestation of the limits to growth in a previous essay, " A beginners guide to how the world really works, Part 1 " http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2015/08/08/how-the-world-works-part-i/ , (bearing in mind that much of the powder keg which constituted the contrived state of Syria was a post European colonial legacy).

The Limits to Growth did not focus on the possibilities of global thermonuclear war, sudden global financial collapse or catastrophic climate events affecting critical food bowls simultaneously which could abruptly destablise society. Nor did it consider acts of targeted warfare (called Jihad by some and terrorism by others) directed at vital areas eg sabotage of the Saudi oilfields or the deployment of mines (and sinking some oil tankers) in the Strait of Hormuz, which will cause sudden catastrophic curtailment of global oil supply (and in turn global financial collapse). Nor did it consider the possibility of pandemics.

One sudden unexpected event (eg abrupt energy, water or food shortage) can lead to others (eg civil or interstate warfare) and yet others more (eg allies of the warring states joining in) and the entire system can decompensate in a chain reaction.

Triggers for warfare may be political and related to blustering reckless brinkmanship in the new "Great Game". For example, if the lunatic Republican Neoconartists once again gain power in the US and decide to bomb Iran (either directly or by their proxy Israel); Russia, now bound by treaty, would come to Iran's defence and this could easily escalate to a nuclear exchange. China, as a BRICS country dependent on Iranian oil, will no doubt be involved. Factoring in the prospect of global thermonuclear war into our future scenario is easy and can be done by any novice without a computer model. Essentially all the curves will go vertical. Resource availability, food production, industrial output and population will immediately crash to near zero. The pollution curve (from worldwide conflagrations) and death rates will go vertically upwards. Simple. In general however it is a waste of time to worry about events we cannot influence, avoid or mitigate. Hence most people in the world (being non-American) should not waste time worrying about possible global thermonuclear war. The only way to avoid the above scenario is for US citizens not to vote a lunatic like Donald Trump (or a moronic puppet like GW Bush) into presidential office, however that may be too much for the rest of the world to ask.

What about financial collapse ? Financial collapse as a consequence of resource scarcity has actually already been modelled by the LtG scientists, because it essentially follows the curve of resource scarcity (primarily oil). However unpredictable financial collapse as a manifestation of bursting bubbles due to market fraud and herd behaviour of the sheeple ( vis a vis the Great Depression of 1929 or GFC of 2008) may be impossible to model. Fraudulent financial bubbles can be identified and tracked (eg the subprime mortgage scheme, unconventional oil schemes, irredeemable debt of the PIIGS countries, indeed the irredeemable debt of all countries) but the exact timing of when they burst and exactly how those collapses will destabilise other parts of the financial system is unknowable. The best we can do is to make rough guesses, as I have outlined in " A beginners guide to how the world really works, Part 2 " http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2015/08/14/how-the-world-works-part-ii/ . Will financial collapses be regional, stuttering and drawn out over several years? Who knows? However it may be more prudent to apply the precautionary principle and assume that one single major financial collapse will set off a cascade of global market crashes and will occur soon. No time like the present to prepare.

What about severe climate events suddenly destroying critical food bowls? At less then 1degC global temperature rise we have seen severe localised events eg loss of 25% of Russian grain production in the summer heatwave of 2010. Cyclone Yasi destroyed the entire banana crop in Queensland in 2011. Unless major rainfall from the current El Nino can resurrect agriculture in California very soon, their production is scheduled to collapse. There are many more contemporary examples of crop failures around the world due to droughts, floods, cyclones or heatwaves which are too numerous to mention, the harbingers of far worse to come.

Some futurists ponder the prospect of a global pandemic wiping out billions of people, in the way the "Spanish flu" wiped out millions after WW1. It is a significant concern to the World Health Organisation that a strain of animal virus could cross the species barrier then achieve person-to-person transmission and spread worldwide.

In many ways this last scenario, the pandemic die off of billions of people around the world, is in fact a highly desirable outcome for the 0.1% who control our morally bankrupt system, so long as they themselves are not affected. We have seen ample evidence beyond any shadow of a doubt that the exploitative and rapacious bankers, industrialists and political dynasties who pull the strings in our global system have zero regard for ordinary people. These puppet masters are the "self serving scumbags" described in my "Icecubes in Rockets" novel. A pandemic dieoff will lead to an immediate and dramatic fall in global carbon emissions and pollution, and a massive reduction in demand for food, water, energy and all resources, while leaving the built infrastructure intact. Many dead bodies will be consumed by scavenging animals and the rest will be fully decomposed after a few years and thus no longer pose a biohazard. Survivors of such a catastrophe will be well poised to reap the benefits of resources now freed up for their use. This will be "enhanced" demand destruction taken to the extreme. We can be certain that this scenario has been seriously considered by TPTB. They are not stupid and we know they are certainly grasping opportunists.

Accordingly, it is my view that rather than a spontaneous zoonosis causing a pandemic and massive dieoff, it is far more likely that a manufactured virus, created and propogated by certain psychopaths, will be liberated in a nefarious act of global mass murder. The perpetrators will of course ensure they and their minions (eg hired mercenaries) are vaccinated before unleashing this terror. The ideal agent to perform this task will be a modified strain of smallpox, the last specimens of which remain only in the possession of the USA and Russia.

Of the two, only the USA under the control of the Republican Neoconartists (if they regain power) is likely to perpetrate this obscenity. They have already amply demonstrated their willingness to commit genocide in pursuit of their greed. These murderers will obviously employ third party proxies eg paid Muslim extremists (in the same way Washington previously used the Taliban to pursue US objectives) to unleash the virus in multiple locations. This will give Washington plausible deniability and enable them to finger blame elsewhere. If you recall, the anthrax mailouts shortly after 9/11, initially blamed on Muslim terrorists, were eventually genetically fingerprinted and traced back to a US military laboratory in Maryland.

In contrast to the USA, the erstwhile USSR previously demonstrated a willingness to dismantle, restructure and ramp down their empire. Moscow's current "belligerence" is merely a response to Washington's needless antagonism of the Russian bear, an overbearing US attempt to undermine Russia's historic sphere of influence. Russia does not tolerate others undermining her interests, but is not a threat to the world at large.

CONCLUSION:

Medical students are expected to study not just common diseases, but numerous rare conditions as well. Why? Because even though a single particular rare condition may never be encountered by a particular doctor in his/her professional lifetime, however due to the very large number of rare diseases in aggregate, that doctor is bound to eventually encounter several patients with (as yet unspecified) rare conditions sometime during his/her future career.

The chance of a single particular improbable catastrophic global event occuring in the short term is low. However there are numerous low probability but high impact potential events, any one of which can cause a teetering complex system to crash suddenly and completely. Hence in aggregate, the likelihood that any one (of many as-yet unspecified improbable events) may occur is actually quite high.

A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. For our complex technological society to function, it is necessary that every one of the thousands of links holding our system together remain intact, however many of those links are now very weak indeed and are on the verge of breaking.

Staving off collapse will require the operation of multiple, magical, extraordinary, complex mechanisms, performing flawlessly and simultaneously, to keep this ponderous, precarious edifice propped up. On the other hand, collapse can suddenly occur as a result of just one single mundane adverse event. Conventional economists would have us believe we can build a Jenga tower vertically forever. They are either liars or fools or both.

In my next article I will outline three lines of argument why global industrial collapse will be complete by 2030, just 15 years from now.