How did a two-year-old local admissions/recruitment scam in Madhya Pradesh acquire the political momentum to potentially alter perceptions and power equations within and outside India's ruling party, BJP, and its ideological parent and occasional sparring partner, RSS?That's the most important question on Vyapam, the shorthand description of a small town scandal that now threatens to have very big impact on some political VIPs, and investigations into which is supposed to end by July 15, as ordered by the Supreme Court.What'llhappen to MP chief minister, RSS favourite and potential BJP national figure Shivraj Singh Chouhan? How that plays out will determine key equations at the top of national BJP and BJP-RSS relations. ET spoke to nearly 20 people in MP, in national BJP leadership, in RSS, in Congress and in investigative agencies for this story. Some spoke on record but most participated in the story on the condition they not be identified, citing political and procedural "sensitivity".In Chouhan's favour so far are the facts that STF/SIT haven't named him or his wife, Sadhana Singh, that he ordered a special inquiry pretty early after the scam broke, that so far courts haven't agreed to a CBI inquiry (Chouhan says he isn't opposed to one either), that he's an RSS favourite.Against the CM are the facts that the noise around the scam is getting louder by day, that Congress is aggressively targeting him, including meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the issue, that a forensic expert is said to have claimed CM's name figured in documents, that a CBI probe is not a dead issue, that national BJP's internal powerplays are a factor that can come into play.Political leaders on all sides keeping a watch on Vyapam developments are looking at a Congress delegation's meeting with the PM two weeks back with great interest. Digvijay Singh, Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia, among others, met the PM. They presented to him what they claimed was an "original excel sheet" that they alleged links Chouhan to the scam.Digvijay Singh told ET the PM gave them a "good hearing and promised to get back". Singh and others told the PM the allegedly tampered Excel sheet -the "original" was recovered from the computer of accused Nitin Mohindra – is enough grounds for a CBI inquiry.Singh said "in 48 appointments, the initials CM have been replaced with that of cabinet minister Uma Bharati, Laxmikant Sharma and others." BJP partymen played down the significance of the meeting."The doors of the PM are always open for anyone, even the opposition," said Hitesh Bajpai, a BJP spokesperson in MP. But senior BJP leaders say the meeting was significant. "It was a little unusual of the PM to give them time especially when they were making such serious allegation against one of BJP's most successful CMs," said one leader. BJP leaders also point to senior MP BJP leader Kailash Vijayvargiya.Forensic expert Prashant Pandey has said he had given the "original Excel sheets" to him. Vijayvargiya was drafted in by BJP president Amit Shah to help formulate strategy for Haryana assembly elections, which BJP swept. Vijayvargiya's stock is high with BJP's top national leadership, BJP insiders say. He's often thought of as a potential successor to Chouhan, one leader said.While no BJP leader was prepared to second guess the top leadership's thinking on the matter, many party insiders pointed to the fact that Chouhan and Modi had always been two of BJP's most successful CMs before the latter emerged as BJP's national face."Look at recent history," one BJP leader said. "Chouhan was perceived as being close to the Advani-Sushma Swaraj camp that had opposed Modi's PM candidature," he said. Another leader said Advani had indicated to the then BJP chief Rajnath Singh that he would prefer Bhopal to his traditional Gandhinagar seat in Gujarat. This leader said Advani had feared "sabotage".However, MP BJP leaders close to Chouhan dismiss any talk of a Modi-Chouhan rivalry. "There was never any competition between MP and Gujarat," this leader said. He added that Chouhan has always had a good equation with Swaraj as she is a member of Parliament from Vidisha in MP.People close to the MP CM say there are many holes in Congress's case based on files recovered from the hard disk of the Vyapam accused. Among these questions, Chouhan's aides say, are whether the "right hard disk" was sent to the Bangalore-based Truth Lab for forensic checks and how the whistle-blower got the "original" files.They also say it's easy for anyone with basic computer knowledge to tamper with file settings in a computer, and therefore allege Congress's "original" is actually not so.Chouhan himself, in an earlier interview to ET, had said Congress's case was non-existent because he himself had ordered the probe. "If I wasn't here and if I didn't want, then no one would have been able to catch the Vyapam scam…who did the catching? It wasn't the media or Congress leaders. It was Shivraj Singh Chouhan…What can be a bigger evidence of my honesty than this?" Chouhan had told ET.Chouhan had also told ET, responding to charges on tampering with the Excel sheet, that he wasn't foolish enough to have put in a party colleague's name. "I could have put in Digvijaya Singh or Kamal Nath's name," Chouhan had told ET, dismissing the allegation.Congress's Digvijaya Singh disagrees. He's alleged that there are text messages from Sadhana Singh, Chouhan's wife, sent to Vyapam accused Sushir Sharma on May 9, 2012. And that people close to Chouhan are not being interrogated.Investigators ET spoke to say there's been so far no evidence of Sadhana Singh's involvement. Some BJP leaders close to Chouhan also point to the fact that the CM has formally asked SIT to look into Singh's allegations. Chouhan's aides also deny charges by state BJP leaders that the CM ordered a "prompt" inquiry to ensure his political rivals like Laxmikant Sharma, formerly a powerful minister in Chouhan's government, were "in trouble". But that such charges get traded show Vyapam politics is getting uglier.A CBI inquiry or not?Political leaders say a CBI inquiry will change the complexion of the Vyapam scandal. Currently, courts have deemed that a CBI inquiry is not needed and Chouhan always refers to that. CBI officials ET spoke to said there has been no directions to the agency but that it is "informally" looking into facts of the case in the light of the politics around the scam.Some BJP leaders say a CBI inquiry when a Congress government at the Centre, in 2013, didn't order one, would seem like intraparty politics. But some other BJP leaders say nothing can be ruled out. Most BJP leaders agree that in the event of a CBI inquiry, Chouhan's position will become very difficult."If he's asked to step down until he clears his name, it will be politically very damaging for him and could throw open rivalries that are dormant right now," one senior BJP leader said.Another leader points our how neither party president Amit Shah nor PM Modi have given strong statements in support of Chouhan in the light of the mounting Congress pressure.The elephant in the Vyapam room is RSS. This is not just thanks to allegations that senior RSS leader Suresh Soni, who until recently held the key position as Sangh-BJP pointsperson, is involved in Vyapam.RSS is crucial because Chouhan has been a longstanding RSS favourite and because recent changes in RSS job allocations have showed it won't necessarily promote pracharaks deemed to have close relations with top BJP leadership.An aide of Vyapam accused Laxikant Sharma, formerly a powerful BJP minister in MP, had said Soni had given a letter of recommendation. Soni's strong defence notwithstanding, he lost his job as the party-parivar intermediary, to be replaced by low profile Krishna Gopal. BJP and RSS leaders say Soni's influence has severely diminished.But more than Soni's loss of influence or his reported unhappiness with Chouhan, what matters as far as the RSS factor is concerned is that the Sangh's faith in Chouhan appears undiminished.Leaders in BJP and RSS said RSS has always considered Chouhan to be a "model" CM and many Sangh heavyweights would want to see Chouhan play a national role. And RSS is signalling that what it wants may not always be in consonance with BJP's top leadership is absolutely comfortable with. Party and Sangh leaders point to, in this context, to the case of senior RSS office bearer Dattatrey Hosbale.He's widely considered as being close to Modi. Joshi, an RSS leader said, is a strongly committed Sangh leader and his appointment means the Sangh wants "independent" men to lead its dealings with BJP. RSS will make up its mind about Chouhan on its own and Chouhan is close to all important RSS leaders, a BJP senior observed. "He's patient, works quietly and has age on his side", this BJP leader.RSS leaders said the Sangh had noted both BJP's "electoral fiasco" in Delhi and the "governance fiasco" in Jammu and Kashmir. "Everything's on hold till Bihar assembly elections later this year…we will firm up our views after Bihar results", one senior RSS functionary said.BJP leaders say it's likely the political game will get sharper as the deadline for SIT submitting its findings come nearer. If the SIT investigation takes a new turn or if there are any indications a CBI inquiry is being considered, Chouhan's future and BJP and RSS powerplays will get very complicated.Plus, there's a "sting". A CD currently circulating in Delhi's political class allegedly shows the son of a prominent BJP member of Parliament from MP acting as a mediator between alleged Vyapam accused. ET could not independently verify the authenticity of the CD and is therefore not publishing the names of those allegedly involved in this conversation. A senior BJP leader said "this sting can make things uglier in Vyapam politics"."Chouhan has advantages but you never know with investigations and there's much politics around him", another BJP leader said. That's a good way to sum up what Vyapam may yet mean if it travels the full distance from Bhopal to Delhi.



The two Sharmas

MP CM Chouhan had told ET the Vyapam investigations he ordered had caught two big people. The reference was to MP mining baron Sudhir Sharma and ex-BJP minister Laxmikant Sharma.The two Sharmas used to be among the state's most powerful people. Sudhir Sharma, say MP political leaders, was close to both BJP and RSS in MP. And he was close to the other Sharma, Laxikant, as well. Local leaders refer to an income tax investigation into Sharma's finances that had shown the mining baron footing travel bills of RSS leader Suresh Soni.They also point to the fact that Sudhir Sharma got his first mine when BJP came to power in MP and that Laxikant Sharma was the then mining minister. Investigators say it was Sudhir Sharma who used his closeness with Laxmikant Sharma to get prime Vyapam accused Pankaj Trivedi the job of examination controller in the board.Laxmikant Sharma, accused of getting 7 aspirants illegally clear a constable recruitment examination, was at one time thought of as a successor to Chouhan. His ministries from 2003 to 2013 were mining and education, both considered to be plum jobs. Like the other Sharma, he too, local leaders say, had close links with RSS. Prior to entering politics, Laxmikant Sharma was a teacher at the RSS-run Saraswati Shishu Mandir.The tale of two Sharmas is the best proof how much a part of MP's establishment was involved in the Vyapam scam, investigators say.