Every so often, a hockey rumour comes up that makes you sit in awe and confusion. Even rarer, you get the awesome plot twist of there being merit to the speculation. Usually, when that’s the case, it involves Flames GM Jay Feaster or Avalanche GM Greg Sherman. Occasionally, the two will band together to create the Watch The Throne of puck absurdity, like the Ryan O’Reilly offer sheet that nearly ended in waivers earlier this season. Fast forward to now, and we have another fun "what if" to discuss.

As reported across the hockey world, the Flames want to make a significant impact at this year’s draft. Since they weren’t able to completely tank, trading for the first overall pick is the best way to do it, and Colorado is the team in possession of that top spot. Feaster’s plan of attack? He offered picks 6 (Calgary’s original pick), 22 (from St. Louis) and 28 (from Pittsburgh) for first overall. Sherman and the Avalanche have since rejected it, but it’s lead to some debate. Should they have taken it? After all, three first round picks are nothing to scoff at. Here’s a look at every 1 for 6/22/28 scenario possible since the draft had at least 28 potential selections:

Year To Calgary (1) To Colorado (6) To Colorado (22) To Colorado (28) Win? 2013 Nathan Mackinnon Darnell Nurse Zach Fucale Kerby Rychel TBD 2012 Nail Yakupov Hampus Lindholm Olli Maatta Brady Skjei TBD 2011 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Mika Zibanejad Tyler Biggs Zack Phillips TBD 2010 Taylor Hall Brett Connolly Jared Tinordi Carlie Coyle TBD 2009 John Tavares Oliver Ekman-Larsson Jordan Schroeder Dylan Olsen TBD 2008 Steven Stamkos Nikita Filatov Jordan Eberle Viktor Tikhonov TBD 2007 Patrick Kane Sam Gagner Max Pacioretty Nick Petrecki TCTC 2006 Erik Johnson Derick Brassard Claude Giroux Nick Foligno COL 2005 Sidney Crosby Gilbert Brule Matt Lashoff Matt Niskanen CGY 2004 Alexander Ovechkin Al Montoya Lukas Kaspar Mark Fistric CGY 2003 Marc-Andre Fleury Milan Michalek Marc-Antoine Pouliot Corey Perry COL 2002 Rick Nash Scottie Upshall Sean Bergenheim Jonas Johansson CGY 2001 Ilya Kovalchuk Mikko Koivu Jiri Novotny Adrian Foster CGY 2000 Rick DiPietro Scott Hartnell David Hale Justin Williams COL 1999 Patrik Stefan Brian Finley Maxime Ouellet Kristian Kudroc CGY 1998 Vincent Lecavalier Rico Fata Simon Gagne Ramzi Abid CGY 1997 Joe Thornton Daniel Tkaczuk Nikos Tselios Brad DeFauw CGY 1996 Chris Phillips Boyd Devereaux Jeff Brown Pavel Skrbek CGY 1995 Bryan Berard Steve Kelly Brian Boucher Jan Hlavac CGY 1994 Ed Jovanovski Ryan Smyth Jeff Kealty Johan Davidsson TCTC 1993 Alexandre Daigle Viktor Kozlov Anders Eriksson Shean Donovan COL 1992 Roman Hamrlik Cory Stillman Curtis Bowen Paul Brousseau TCTC 1991 Eric Lindros Peter Forsberg Dean McAmmond Jim Campbell TCTC 1990 Owen Nolan Scot Scissons Ryan Hughes Brandy Semchuk CGY 1989 Mats Sundin Adam Bennett Adam Foote Jarrod Skalde CGY 1988 Mike Modano Scott Pearson Troy Mallette Paul Holden CGY 1987 Pierre Turgeon Dave Archibald Brad Miller Daniel Marois CGY 1986 Joe Murphy Vincent Damphousse Adam Graves Kent Hawley COL 1985 Wendel Clark Brad Dalgarno Ken Spangler Mike Richter TCTC 1984 Mario Lemieux Craig Redmond Greg Smith Doug Houda CGY 1983 Brian Lawton John Maclean Todd Charlesworth Jeff Jackson COL 1982 Gord Kluzak Phil Housley Brian Curran Rene Badeau COL 1981 Dale Hawerchuk Jim Benning Scott Arniel Steve Gatzos CGY 1980 Doug Wickenheiser Paul Coffey Joe Ward Steve Ludzik COL 1979 Rob Ramage Craig Hartsburg Blake Wesley Tim Trimper CGY 1978 Bobby Smith Behn Wilson Curt Fraser Glenn Hicks CGY 1977 Dale McCourt Doug Wilson Jeff Bandura Don Laurence COL 1976 Rick Green Don Murdoch Reed Larson Bobby Simpson COL 1975 Mel Bridgman Don Ashby Brian Engblom Brad Gassoff CGY 1974 Greg Joly Doug Hicks Bryan Trottier Guy Chouinard COL 1973 Denis Potvin Andre Savard Peter Marrin Jean Landry CGY 1972 Billy Harris Michel Larocque Tom Cassidy Stan Weir CGY 1971 Guy Lafleur Ron Jones Rick Kehoe Curt Ridley CGY 1970 Gilbert Perreault Chuck Lefley Errol Thompson Michel Archambault CGY 1969 Rejean Houle Bob Currier Art Quoquochi Willie Brossart CGY

For the sake of debate, I used MyNHLDraft’s mock draft with alterations to 1 and 6 for this season. Best player available is usually the way to go, but with 1-3 and 6-8 being close together, strengths and weaknesses can be considered. I believe that Calgary is more keen to getting an elite centre, so Mackinnon would be their player of choice. Colorado, who seems to be geared to Jones at #1, would likely look to defence again at 6 and select Darnell Nurse.

I’ve also marked the last five drafts as "To Be Decided" in outcome. These players are still young and developing, and results could still go either way, though I’m all but certain that 2010 and 2008 are going to end up with 1st overall being the better choice. Now, with that considered…

In the 35 remaining drafts, having the 1st overall pick is the better choice 20 times (58.8%).

Scouting has gotten a lot better over the years. From 1987 to 2006, just 4 of 20 times does pick quantity win over quality. By comparison, quantity won out 6 of 10 times between 1974 and 1983. The first pick has become a much safer place over time.

2000 goes in favour of quantity, but Rick DiPietro’s injuries play a huge role in that. If he continued to be a top 5-10 goaltender, this wouldn’t be a discussion.

I find it funny that despite Patrik Stefan becoming a bust, he would’ve been the right option in 1999. I guess 7 year old Jeff was wrong about Maxime Ouellet being a sure-fire superstar goaltender.

1990 is probably the most lopsided year. Owen Nolan had a fantastic career, whereas the three players that would’ve been sent the other way combined for 6 games played and 0 points. Nolan was picked by Quebec, who are now Colorado, making it especially fitting.

Similarly, 1997 is pretty lopsided, with Joe Thornton going first and nothing of value being taken at 6/22/28. Daniel Tkaczuk was actually a Calgary pick at 6th, like Rico Fata the net year.

Six of these trades are "too close to call", but in most coses, it’s a matter of just one of the three panning out to be about as good as the #1 pick, and the other two being scraps, rather than a case of overpowering amounts of talent.

While the rumour was a fun one, it looks like Colorado made the right decision here. This also means there was a method to Feaster’s madness, and that putting all your eggs in one basket is smart, as long as the basket is made of diamond. First overall picks are becoming increasingly harder to mess up. Picking a superstar off of a late first rounder is more lucky than it is good scouting. The types of players you pick in those spots are good to have in your core, but are available via free agency much more often than the average first overall pick (Kovalchuk being the only one to really hit the open market in his prime, and even he eventually returned to New Jersey).

With that said, knowing the luck of these two teams, Colorado will pick up the next Stefan. Calgary will respond by picking the next Forsberg at 6, next Trottier at 22, and next Perry at 28, but all three will struggle out of the gate. You know, until they break out after being traded to re-acquire Jarome Iginla for a farewell tour in three years.





