Support for Scheer’s Conservatives rises

Toronto, January 31st – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1408 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, Conservative support has risen significantly and now 4 in 10 (43%) say they would support Scheer’s party if an election were held today.

Just under 4 in 10 (38%) say they would support Trudeau’s Liberals.

Conservative support (43%) is up four points over December (Dec 15: 39%).

Liberal support (38%) is unchanged since December (Dec 15: 38%).

Support for the NDP is just over 1 in 10 (12%) and, like the Liberals, hasn’t changed at all since December (Dec 15: 12%).

Few say they would support the Green (3%), which is almost half what their support was in December (Dec 15: 5%), the Bloc sees a similar decline (3%) (Dec 15: 6%). Almost no one says they would support another party (0%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Conservatives include those aged 35-44 (47%), 45-54 (48%), males (51%), the most wealthy (53%), living in Alberta (68%), with a college/university degree (47%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals include those aged 55-64 (42%) or 65+ (43%), females (46%), the least wealthy (50%), living in Québec (46%), and amongst the least educated (39%), some college/university (40%), and with a post-graduate degree (42%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the NDP include the least wealthy (18%), with an income of $60,000-$80,000 (15%), and living in Québec (14%) or BC (17%).

Conservative majority

If an election were held on the date of this poll, we would expect to see a Conservative majority of 181 seats, with the Liberals serving as official opposition with 142.

The NDP would secure 14 and the Green Party would hold their seat. The BQ would not win a seat.

Trudeau unchanged, Scheer and Singh yet to be well-known

Justin Trudeau now sees disapproval from almost half of all respondents (47%), with the approval of just over 4 in 10 (44%). About 1 in 10 (9%) say they do not know. His net favourable score (approve – disapprove) is -3.

Trudeau’s approval remains mostly unchanged since December (Dec 15: 42%) as is his disapproval (Dec 15: 47%).

Andrew Scheer sees approval from just over one-quarter (28%) and disapproval of the same proportion (29%). To the plurality, however, (43%) he remains an unknown, with the respondent saying do not know. His net favourable score is -1.

Scheer’s support is effectively unchanged since December, with his approval (Dec 15: 28%) and disapproval (Dec 15: 28%) basically unmoved.

Jagmeet Singh sees approval from a quarter (26%) and disapproval from just under a third (29%). Almost half (46%) say they do not know about Jagmeet Singh. His net favourable score is -3.

His approval is similar to December, much like the other leaders, with his approval (Dec 15: 28%) and disapproval (Dec 15: 27%) being within the margin of error.

“The Conservatives seem to be benefiting from the mid-mandate blues experienced by the Trudeau Liberals,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “But an election is a long way off, and with Scheer unknown to almost half of voters, he will have a lot of work to do to turn this support into actual votes.”

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.