The Republican health care plan being considered by Congress will significantly increase the number of uninsured people, but save the federal government hundreds of billions of dollars, according to an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office. Here are the key findings from the report.

The number of uninsured will grow by 24 million in 10 years.

While President Trump promised “insurance for everybody,” the C.B.O. projects that if the Republican plan took effect today, 14 million more people would be uninsured next year, and by 2026, the number of uninsured would be about double what it is today.

That means that in 10 years, the number of uninsured Americans would be closer to what it was before the Affordable Care Act, President Barack Obama’s signature health law, took effect.

Number of uninsured under the Republican plan

Before Obamacare 57 million In 2026 52 million Now 27 million Projected 2013 2016 2020 2026 Before Obamacare 57 million In 2026 52 million Now 27 million Projected 2013 2016 2020 2026 Before Obamacare 57 million In 2026 52 million Now 27 million PROJECTED 2013 2016 2020 2026

Several main changes under the Republicans’ proposal would cause fewer people to have insurance.

It would substantially cut funding for Medicaid, which covers low-income Americans, and reduce the value of tax credits that individuals use to buy health insurance, pricing many out of the market.

It would also repeal the individual mandate, which requires all Americans to obtain health insurance if they can afford it, or else face penalties.

The mandate, which many Republicans criticize, was created to keep insurance affordable for those who are older or sick.

Without the mandate, many healthy people are expected to drop coverage, driving up prices for those who need it most, and ultimately causing even more people to drop out of the individual market.

To calculate how many people would be uninsured under the Republican plan, the C.B.O., a nonpartisan agency of economists and statisticians, also had to estimate what would happen if the Affordable Care Act were not repealed.

Number of uninsured if the current health law is not repealed

The report concluded that after 10 years, the Republican plan would create 24 million additional uninsured people — the difference between the number of uninsured under the proposed plan and the number if the Affordable Care Act is not repealed.

The plan would reduce the federal deficit by $337 billion over 10 years.

The Republican plan would save the federal government $337 billion by 2026, with the largest savings coming from cuts to Medicaid spending as well as reduced spending on tax credits for middle-income insurance buyers.

Projected cumulative change in deficit under the Republican plan

+$56 billion $0 -$42 billion -$100 -$165 billion -$200 -$300 billion In 2026 -$337 billion 2017 2019 2022 2024 2026 +$56 billion $0 -$42 billion -$100 -$165 billion -$200 In 2026 -$337 billion -$300 billion 2017 2019 2022 2024 2026

The savings would have been substantially larger, but Republicans would also eliminate about $600 billion in taxes imposed under the Affordable Care Act, including taxes on investment income, prescription drugs and indoor tanning.

14 million fewer people will be enrolled in Medicaid in 10 years.

The largest group of people to be affected by the Republican plan would be those with Medicaid coverage. Most of the declines would start in 2020, when the changes to the program would take effect.

Number of people who would lose Medicaid coverage under the Republican plan

0 -4 -8 -9 million -12 In 2026 -14 million -16 million 2017 2020 2022 2024 2026 0 -4 -8 -9 million -12 In 2026 -14 million -16 million 2017 2020 2022 2024 2026

Under the current health care law, 31 states and the District of Columbia expanded Medicaid to cover low-income Americans without children, a group that previously found it difficult to afford insurance.

Several states that expanded their Medicaid programs could reverse course if the Republican plan became law.

The Republican plan does not repeal the expansion but would reduce funding for enrollees who gained access to Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act.

The G.O.P. plan would also limit funding for all enrollees by giving states a fixed sum per enrollee, rather than making an open-ended commitment to provide funding based on need.

Republican leaders have long argued that fixing federal funding for Medicaid would ultimately produce significant savings in the federal budget, and the C.B.O. estimates that changes to Medicaid would decrease direct spending by $880 billion over 10 years.

Premiums will rise by 15 to 20 percent in the first couple of years, but decrease in 2020.

Republican lawmakers cite rising premiums as a main reason for repealing the Affordable Care Act.

The C.B.O. estimates that after an initial rise in average premiums, there would be an overall decrease beginning in 2020. By 2026, average premiums would be about 10 percent lower than under the current law.

But the change in premiums would be significantly different, depending on age, because the Republican plan calls for charging more for older Americans than allowed under the current law.

One of the biggest reasons premiums will go down is because insurance will become expensive for older people, causing them to leave the market, improving the risk pool.

Under the Republican plan, the premium for a typical low-income 64-year-old, after subsidies, would jump to $14,600 a year, from $1,700 a year, but rise slightly for a 40-year-old with the same income.

Net premium for a single individual with annual income of $26,500

Age Under Obamacare Under new plan 21 years old $1,700 $1,450 40 years old $1,700 $2,400 64 years old $1,700 $14,600

While premiums have risen under the current law, it shielded many Americans from increases because a majority of those buying insurance through the marketplaces received tax subsidies from the federal government. The subsidies were on a sliding scale according to income, to help offset some of the costs for middle-income Americans.

The Republican plan, however, changes the way premium subsidies are calculated: they would be distributed by age, instead of income.

That means that middle-income Americans earning just above the cutoff for Obamacare subsidies would get substantially more help paying for their health insurance.

Net premium for a single individual with annual income of $68,200

Age Under Obamacare Under new plan 21 years old $5,100 $1,450 40 years old $6,500 $2,400 64 years old $15,300 $14,600

But experts say that tax credits for those earning more won’t have a meaningful effect in reducing the number of uninsured because most high-earners are already insured anyway.

7 million fewer people will be covered by their employers.

About two million fewer people will be covered through work in 2020 under the Republican plan. By 2026, that number will be seven million, according to the C.B.O.

That’s largely because fewer employers would offer coverage with the repeal of the employer mandate, which required large employers to offer affordable health insurance.