House for Sale 1.jpg

(Courtesy photo)

The third-quarter is "on the books" for southeast Michigan's real estate market, leaving just three months for listings, sales and price trends to shape 2016.

Realcomp, the multiple listing and data service for Metro Detroit Realtors, released its monthly totals this morning.

According to Realcomp's look at September 2016 compared to September 2015:

The median sale price was up 9.2%, from $146,000 to $159,500

Monthly sales were down 5%

Communities with the most September sales: 1) Detroit 2) Warren 3) Livonia 4) Sterling Heights 5) Canton Township

Average days on market was down by 3 days

Beyond the monthly totals, the start of the fourth quarter provides a chance to assess the direction of the year. Here are five notable things about this market:

1. It's still about inventory.

The number of houses available to sell has defined the real estate market in southeast Michigan for many years. It's spurring more home building and driving up prices.

Third-quarter numbers from Realcomp show that's not just continuing - it's becoming more acute.

"This is the lowest inventory that we've had in five or six years," said Karen Kage, CEO of Realcomp.

Listings for an 18-county region - from Hillsdale through Wayne County and north to the Thumb area - show a 34 percent drop in listings this September over last year. The year-to-date drop is 8.6 percent.

2. And inventory is affecting price.

The median sales price in 2016 for the four counties comprising Metro Detroit was $167,000, up from $158,500 a year earlier. That's on 38,498 closed sales. In September, which recorded 4,561 sales, the median sales price was $173,500 - much higher than the yearly average.

Sellers, on average, are getting 97.2 percent of their list price so far in 2016 in Metro Detroit, up from 96.9 percent.

The highest median sales prices in September were recorded in Livingston County ($239,000), Grosse Pointe areas ($235,000) and Washtenaw County ($225,000).

3. Some areas are selling faster than others.

Realtors track the number of days a house is on the market as an active listing to get an idea of how long it's taking properties to sell.

A look at September 2016 compared to that month a year earlier shows that some hot markets got even hotter a year later:

* Ann Arbor leads the region at 34 days on market, down from 40 in September 2015.

* Oakland County is right behind, but it stayed at 35 this year and last.

* Wayne County is at 36, down from 39. If you take Detroit out of the Wayne County mix, the total is a region-leading 32, down from 38.

And these communities cooled off a bit in the year-over-year comparison:

* Detroit, jumping to 56 from 47.

* Shiawassee County, jumping from 69 to 86.

* Huron County, jumping from 178 to 327 (but that's only on 13 sales and 75 listings).

4. Making assumptions about the market? Use the latest information.

Data points like online real estate estimates and your friend's aunt's experience selling a home a few months ago will only go so far right now in guiding a decision to buy and sell.

The numbers are changing by the month, according to the latest from Realcomp. This September had 13.2 percent fewer listings than last September in Metro Detroit, and that helped drive up the median sales price by 7.1 percent. Both exceed the percentages found in the year-to-date report, showing how a single month can affect pricing.

Thinking you need to wait until the spring market to sell? It could be worth your time to see what a listing could mean for you this fall.

"You may be nicely surprised." That's what Kage said when I asked what advice she'd give to someone who's been contemplating a move.

5. Condos have fewer "months supply of inventory" than houses.

Shared ownership of common areas isn't for everyone. But in this market - and across southeast Michigan - people are buying condominiums at a faster pace.

When comparing the number of new listings to the closed and pending sales, Realcomp shows that there are 2.3 months of condo inventory available - compared to 3.5 months for houses.

The numbers are from September 2016, and they're a sizable drop from a year earlier, when there was 3.9 months of condo inventory and 5.5 months of house inventory.