Previous polls in the last month have been tied. Hawley's slight surge after the senator announced her opposition to Kavanaugh may be an omen of things to come.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill came out in opposition to confirming Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court 10 days ago. This move may have been ill advised as polls show she now trails her GOP opponent, Josh Hawley.

Breitbart:

A new poll released by The Missouri Scout on Saturday shows that Republican challenger Josh Hawley has taken a two point lead over Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) in the Missouri Senate race just days after she announced she will be voting against the confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Hawley leads McCaskill by a margin of 48 percent to 46 percent in the poll conducted by Missouri Scout over two days, from Wednesday, September 26 to Thursday, September 27. McCaskill announced her opposition to Kavanaugh on September 19. The second day of the poll was conducted on the same day Judge Kavanaugh and Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, who has accused him of attempting to sexually assault her 36 years ago at a time and place she cannot recall and with no corroborating witnesses or evidence, testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Significantly, the poll found that 49 percent of likely voters said the Supreme Court confirmation process for Brett Kavanaugh has made them less likely to vote for McCaskill, while only 42 percent said it made them more likely to vote for her. The overall seven point deficit for McCaskill on this important question helps explain why Hawley has jumped into a two point lead. Even though the results are barely within the 2.5 percent margin of error, they are different than three national polls conducted earlier in September, all of which showed the race tied.

At least in Missouri, Democratic tactics against Kavanaugh may be backfiring:

Among female respondents, 47 percent said the confirmation process made them less likely to vote for McCaskill, while 42 percent said it made them more likely. Among male respondents, 50 percent said the confirmation process made them less likely to vote for McCaskill, while 41 percent said it made them more likely. Among Non-Partisan respondents, 46 percent said the confirmation process made them less likely to vote for McCaskill, while 39 percent said it made them more likely.

I think you'll find this to be true in most Republican states. The process has been so tainted that voters could be in the mood to punish Democrats for their actions. How much of a difference it might make nationwide remains to be seen.

The bottom line is that McCaskill is going to need a significant number of GOP conservatives to get re-elected. Missouri has more Republicans in it than Democrats and McCaskill's opposition only makes it that much harder for her to overcome the GOP advantage in the state.

The significance of this race cannot be overstated. If the Republicans can flip just one or two Democratic senate seats, the chances of the Democrats taking control of the upper body are reduced to close to zero. Hawley is very well funded and has run a decent campaign so far, making it difficult for McCaskill to attack him as an "extremist" which has been the Democratic playbook elsewhere.