

EU Referendum: in the absence of a plan … 24/02/2016

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Britain is a deeply Eurosceptic country says the



The newspaper is citing



Its work finds that two-thirds of the electorate were unhappy with Britain's current membership terms. But, when given a straight choice between staying or going, 60 percent thought Britain should stay in, compared with 30 percent who believed the country should "withdraw", with ten percent undecided.



The Centre concludes that for euroscepticism to translate into support for withdrawal, voters also needed to be convinced of the economic case for leaving. At present, most are not. No less than 40 percent believe Britain's economy would be worse off if we left, while only 24 percent anticipate conditions improving.



This is despite well over half (57 percent) of respondents believing that immigration would be lower if Britain left the EU; just nine percent believe it would increase. But that is not enough to turn the tide.



The crucial element, it appears, is that voters



The thing is, we didn't need this research to tell us this. Time and time and time again, we've been making this point, saying that concern about the effects of EU membership, on its own, is not enough. We must present an alternative vision and be able to reassure people that we are capable of realising it, thereby neutralising fears of economic disaster.



It is not too late to turn this around, but there is very little time. If by the end of the campaign, leavers are still promoting exit strategies that would presage economic disaster or - at the very least - considerable uncertainty (which, electorally, has the same effect) - then we are doomed. Britain is a deeply Eurosceptic country says the Independent , but voters are still likely to decide to remain in the EU when forced to choose in the referendum.The newspaper is citing research from the National Centre for Social Research which, it says, highlights the dilemma for the "leave" campaign.Its work finds that two-thirds of the electorate were unhappy with Britain's current membership terms. But, when given a straight choice between staying or going, 60 percent thought Britain should stay in, compared with 30 percent who believed the country should "withdraw", with ten percent undecided.The Centre concludes that for euroscepticism to translate into support for withdrawal, voters also needed to be convinced of the economic case for leaving. At present, most are not. No less than 40 percent believe Britain's economy would be worse off if we left, while only 24 percent anticipate conditions improving.This is despite well over half (57 percent) of respondents believing that immigration would be lower if Britain left the EU; just nine percent believe it would increase. But that is not enough to turn the tide.The crucial element, it appears, is that voters must be reassured that there will be no adverse economic consequences from leaving the EU. We have to be able to convince people that leaving will be practicable and safe and will not present an economic penalty – exactly the job that Flexcit was intended to do.The thing is, we didn't need this research to tell us this. Time and time and time again, we've been making this point, saying that concern about the effects of EU membership, on its own, is not enough. We must present an alternative vision and be able to reassure people that we are capable of realising it, thereby neutralising fears of economic disaster.It is not too late to turn this around, but there is very little time. If by the end of the campaign, leavers are still promoting exit strategies that would presage economic disaster or - at the very least - considerable uncertainty (which, electorally, has the same effect) - then we are doomed.

Thus, unless the "leave" campaign is prepared to rally around a credible exit plan, the outcome of our referendum is all too predictable – an almost exact re-run of the 1975 result. There is no other possible outcome unless we bite that bullet.





