There are 12 solo artists on the BBC longlist – and only one true band. Why? Look to music industry economics for the answer

The announcement of the BBCs annual Sound of … list never feels like a moment of celebration for those of us (most of us) whose blackened little hearts have been shrunken by years of cynicism towards a music industry that rarely favours the brave.

Like the Brit Awards and the Mercury Music Prize, this list takes the middle path. It reads like a pastiche ("a young man with a gravelly voice … he has supported Tom Odell"). Pop long since ate itself and this is what comes out the other end.

Interestingly, 12 of the 15 shortlisted are solo artists, while the other three are duos. There are as many Brit School graduates as there are actual bands: one apiece. And even then that one band – Royal Blood – are a two-piece. Of course, duos can be bands, but the BBC news themselves have been swift to report that "bands are out of fashion".

I've yet to see hard evidence of an actual shape-shifting cabal of music biz insiders who meet twice a year to snort toot from a special stash of the 70s good stuff, drink the blood of the X Factor rejected, and casually decide which artists are going to shift product for the next two quarters; but these lists don't help my general suspicions that such a group exists. Besides, we all like a good old moan at the music industry don't we? That what's it's there for.

While previous winners of the BBC Sound Of … accolade – Little Boots (first place in 2009) and the Bravery (first place in 2005) – may not have reached the dizzy heights, there has nevertheless always seemed something preordained about the selections. Chosen artists are those forecasted to have the biggest marketing budgets.

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Ellie Goulding (2010's winner) did not get where she is through talent alone, but because her label had enough money to spend on the nine producers of her debut album. And even then it took a Mumford-produced cover of an Elton John song used as John Lewis Christmas advert campaign and handily, performed at the wedding reception of the future king of England, to capitalise. These doors just do not open for artists on labels like, say, Big Dada on Wichita. I'd argue that Haim have enjoyed a degree of success this year exactly because they won the poll in 2013. It's pop as self-fulfilling prophesy.

And even then the pollsters get it wrong – for every Lady Gaga (voted sixth in 2009) there's a Daisy Dares You (the same position the following year); for every Vampire Weekend a Joe Lean & the Jing Jang Jong (sixth and seventh in 2008). For every Adele or Jessie J, a Mario, Just Jack, Kubb, Tali, Gemma Fox or Mona.

The "bands are unfashionable" line is a misleading assertion. Really, the story is: the big record labels cannot afford to sign and develop bands. Or, rather: many bands simply cannot survive because everyone is stealing their music for free. Yes, stealing. So labels don't bother with them any more.

Tellingly, as a music journalist the big thing I've noticed this past year is the sheer number of bands I've interviewed during their lunch breaks while working jobs at, say, the local council or in the admin office of universities. These are bands with several albums out, who tour America on their holidays. Once we'd have chatted for hours – now interviews are squeezed between sandwiches and that meeting with Sandra in Accounts.

But great bands still exist, so why does the list not include Nottingham quartet Baby Godzilla, currently the most exciting new heavy band in the country, or unhinged rickets-stricken Dickensian urchins Fat White Family? Why no head-bending skronk jazzers Melt Yourself Down? Because all are too volatile and fringe for an industry-backed poll that relies on fiscal success to keep its job. Solo artists are easier to manage and cheaper to sustain.

This list is the inevitable outcome of an ailing business wracked by years of bad decisions and wasted money, and a public who simply no longer want to pay for their art. In times of crisis all risky creative bets are off.