JERUSALEM — As the bodies have piled up over the past week — four Israelis killed in two Palestinian attacks, four Palestinians slain by Israeli troops — people here have been nervously debating whether they are witnessing the onset of a third intifada.

But even as the violence continued on Tuesday, the very notion of a Palestinian uprising may be outdated, a futile look to history to define events unfolding in profoundly different circumstances.

Most analysts say Palestinians today lack the strong leadership that in 1987 harnessed spontaneous stone-throwing to an organized movement leading to the Oslo Peace Accords, or that orchestrated the campaign of suicide bombings against Israeli buses and cafes starting in 2000. The deep trauma of the second intifada, which claimed the lives of about 3,000 Palestinians and 1,000 Israelis over five years, scarred both societies. Avoiding a repetition of those years has defined much of their politics since.

“Things could happen out of the blue, but that would require a very fast-paced mobilization on the ground that is allowed to jell, and I see the Palestinian Authority and security forces more likely than not retaining the capacity to nip that in the bud,” said Mouin Rabbani of the Institute for Palestine Studies. “Those forces that are seeking to sustain and expand this Palestinian campaign are dealing not only with the forces that at the end of the day managed to successfully neutralize the first and second intifadas — the Israeli military — but perhaps a more effective opponent, their own leadership.”