Gingrich still may not make Va. ballot

Newt Gingrich has expressed confidence that he's reached the threshold to make the Virginia primary ballot, but GOP insiders familiar with the process say it's no sure thing.

The short version: Gingrich may not ultimately have enough signatures from registered voters on his petition.

The former speaker turned in 11,050 signatures from Virginians, which would seemingly be enough to meet the 10,000 signature minimum the commonwealth requires of candidates to get on the March 6 primary ballot.

But those 11,050 are going to be matched against the the registered voter rolls and many are likely to be thrown out. And of the 10,000 valid signatures, at least 400 a piece must come from each of Virginia's 11 congressional districts. Given Gingrich's admitted last-minute "scramble" to get on the ballot — using paid contractors instead of volunteers — it's likely that he'll have quite a few signatures thrown out.

"There's no way that a candidate who submitted fewer than 12K signatures will be left with the 10K statutory minimum," wrote one veteran Virginia GOP operative not involved in the race.

"I think it's less than 50-50 they make it," said a second Virginia Republican, who supports Mitt Romney.

Gingrich would need about a 90 percent verification rate to clear 10,000 legitimate signatures. A source familiar with Romney's campaign said they assessed approximately a third of their 16,026 VIrginia signatures and found something short of 90 percent verification against the registered voter rolls. And Romney backers collected many of their signatures at polling places during this year's primary and general elections in Virginia whereas Gingrich picked up many of his outside retail stores in the last few days. Needless to say, registered voters are more easily found at the polls than outside a Wal-Mart.

The Virginia deadline is today, and the state party will issue a decision on who made the ballot after Christmas.

Romney is sure to make it because he turned in over 15,000 signatures: The state GOP has said they'll not canvass the petitions of those candidates who reach that threshold.

But as Virginia campaign lawyer Chris Ashby notes, those candidates "who submit 14,999 or fewer, however, will undergo signature-by-signature scrutiny of his or her petitions — something no statewide candidate in recent memory ever has had to endure."