So there we have it: an energy-sapping defeat for the Democratic party and its allies, and a huge morale boosting win for the Republicans. Coupled with the latest lacklustre job figures, this defeat is more bad news for the Obama campaign – even if the consequences of tonight's recall election are a faint echo by November.

Soon, in the next week or two, there's the prospect that the Supreme Court will overturn Obama's signature healthcare reforms, and then the White House will find the sobriquet "beleaguered" hung around its neck.

With five months to go until the election in November, time is running out.

For Scott Walker, it's not impossible that Mitt Romney could see him as a vice presidential candidate. And why not? He appears to have improved on his 2010 election performance in spite of everything thrown at him. Republicans have been talking about him as a future presidential candidate for some time – and he has now shot into the party's superstar league.

The night's other losers were CNN and the people that release early exit poll data. Good night and thanks for reading.

Gary Younge files his final thoughts from Wisconsin, and explains why the Democrats lost a bold fight:

First, the Republicans have a get-out-the vote operation that is every bit as dynamic as those of the Democrats and organised labour. Recall supporters made themselves believe that those huge turnouts in Democratic areas were all for them when it was actually Republicans coming out behind enemy lines.

Hey guess what, they updated the Wisconsin exit polls again. Now Scott Walker had a 14 point lead, and Obama leads Romney by 51% to 44%. Thanks a lot, exit polls.

In other news, the captain of the Titanic should watch out for icebergs.

The Guardian's Rory Carroll files from Appleton, Wisconsin:

Walker, a newly minted superstar of the right, struck a conciliatory tone when addressing euphoric supporters. "Bringing our state together will take some time, but I hope to start right away. It is time to put our differences aside and figure out ways that we can move Wisconsin forward." He became the first governor to survive a recall election. Two others who faced the same test – in 1921 and 2003 – lost. He justified the restrictions on unions as necessary to balance the budget, making him a darling of those pushing for fiscal austerity. "I'm elated. It's an indication of what's to come," said Jake Jacobs, a schoolteacher and author, amid whooping celebrations at Republican campaign headquarters in Appleton. "This united the Tea Party and limited government conservatives."

Should we be surprised that the Republicans won all the Wisconsin recall races? No, says master of the recall election, Joshua Spivak:

Right now, the Republicans are looking good for all races in Wisconsin. What is the history of clean sweeps in recall elections? The answer is very good.



In the previous three instances of multiple recalls on the state level (North Dakota, 1921, Idaho 1971, Michigan 1983), there were clean sweeps. Idaho and Michigan are most similar to the Wisconsin race, as they were in different district on the same day (though Idaho had a lot of overlap).



But that's not the whole story. In the multiple recalls in one city/jurisdiction that have occurred this year, most have been clean sweeps.

"Now it is time for Wisconsin to move on," says Scott Walker. "Tomorrow is the day after the election," he notes, utterly correctly.

"A few minutes ago I talked to Mayor Tom Barrett." There are a few boos. "No, no, no, the election is over," Walker scolded mildly.

I wonder if Romney will put Walker on his VP short list to reinforce #wirecall results & try to make WI swing. — Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) June 6, 2012

Now Walker says he's learned a lot in the last two years, and says he "rushed in to fix things," and that he should have talked more. And he wants everyone in the state legislature to come over for "brats and burgers ... and some good Wisconsin beer".

Scott Walker takes the stage, and he lacks Tonette's electricity as a speaker. But then a Chevy Volt lacks Tonette's electricity.

Walker runs off a long list of thank yous, including to his mother's chocolate chip cookies.

Meanwhile, AP has now called three of the four state senate races in Wisconsin for the GOP. Republicans lead in the last race by 63-37.

Oh and here's Tonette Walker – yes that's the correct spelling – preparing to introduce her husband Scott for his victory speech. "Thank you for the doors you've not done," she says. Sorry, "knocked on".

Tonette's doing an awesome job here, hats off to her. "I'm incredibly proud of my husband, in my opinion he's the best governor Wisconsin's ever had," she says. "Now here's my husband, the only governor to be elected twice in one term!"

Milwaukee mayor and Democratic candidate Tom Barrett is now making his concession speech: "I just got off the phone with Governor Walker and congratulated him on his victory," he says, to scattered boos from the crowd.

"Please, please, please remain engaged, remain involved – we will continue to fight for justice and fairness in this city and state," says Barrett.

With nearly 80% of the Wisconsin recall vote in, Scott Walker has an 11 point lead over Tom Barrett. So it wasn't just the exit polling that was wrong, it was every single poll that showed this to be a close race.

We're still waiting on Scott Walker to give his victory speech. In the meantime, Politico's Dylan Byer's mildly scolds CNN for running reheated Piers Morgan diamond jubilee coverage while Fox News and MSNBC were breaking news with Scott Walker's dramatic win.

Byers includes side-by-side video clips of the cable networks as the news from Wisconsin broke:

CNN has no obligation to cover the Wisconsin recall, and one could argue that CNN doesn't need to break that political news, or spend the 10 o'clock hour speculating on the potential political ramifications of the various outcomes. But I highly doubt that CNN would make that argument.

Er, kind of oblique but in summary: CNN did a crappy job.

Scott Walker gives his first post-election interview to AP:

In his first interview since beating back a recall challenge, Governor Scott Walker tells The Associated Press that the victory "feels good." Walker said Tuesday that, "it's time to put our differences aside and find ways to work together to move Wisconsin forward." Walker says he plans to meet with his cabinet Wednesday. He also wants to invite members of the Legislature to gather over burgers and brats as soon as next week to talk about ways to bridge the political divide that has gripped the state for more than a year.

Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus twists the knife in a statement congratulating Scott Walker on his victory tonight:

After tonight's results, Democrats and the Obama campaign are surely nervous. As Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz said, this election was a 'dry run' for the presidential election. But after President Obama actively avoided Wisconsin and Tom Barrett, one of his earliest supporters, it is hard to imagine how he can now come back to Wisconsin and credibly ask for his party's support in November. The president abandoned his base in this recall, so he shouldn't be surprised if they return the favor in November.

So what about all those reports of high turnout in Wisconsin? Again, we've all been there before. But what may have happened is simple: redistricting since the last election changed precinct boundaries, meaning different patterns of turnout compared with recent history.

The other possibility is what was seen in 2004: the Kerry camp was delighted at voter turnout. But they failed to see that Republican turnout was also up.

Mitt Romney lays on hands:

I congratulate @ScottKWalker on his victory in WI. Tonight’s results will echo beyond the borders of Wisconsin mi.tt/LxWkwA — Mitt Romney (@MittRomney) June 6, 2012

Echo to ... Illinois? Michigan?

MSNBC's Chuck Todd has a point:

Most important result from the exit poll: the 60% who said recalls are ONLY appropriate for OFFICIAL misconduct. — Chuck Todd (@chucktodd) June 6, 2012

That's the best way to reconcile Walker's win with the Obama result in the exit poll data.

You can be excused if you wish to place no value on exit polls from Wisconsin tonight, but it seems that 17% of those who voted for Scott Walker said they will vote for Barack Obama in November.

So maybe Obama was smart not to go to Wisconsin?

Aaaand AP calls Wisconsin for Scott Walker too.

Oh, and so far in the four recall senate districts, the Republican candidates are winning in each race by around 10 percentage points.

On the bright side, maybe Orly Taitz will get the Republican nomination for the California senate seat.

Oh yes and someone at CNN finally switched off Piers Morgan's blather and projected a win for Scott Walker in Wisconsin.

It sounds like Tom Barrett actually did worse than in 2010. The big difference seems to have been in absentee ballots.

Fox News also calls it for Scott Walker – and his lieutenant governor Rebecca Kleefisch also holds on, according to Fox News's projections.

According to Sean Hannity, this proves that Mitt Romney will win every state with the possible exception of Delaware in 2012.

Yes, for those of you disappointed based on the earlier exit poll numbers: relying on early exit poll numbers is the way to madness. Did you learn nothing from 2004?

So far it's just NBC News calling Wisconsin for Scott Walker – but Fox News can't be far off making its call. CNN, meanwhile, are recycling Piers Morgan's desperate bid for a knighthood by sucking up to the Queen from earlier today.

NBC News has now called the recall election for Scott Walker – so he's survived.

Tricky business, signs when your name is Walker.

One has to wonder whether the signage at Walker's election night event was properly thought out. #wirecall twitter.com/natashaloder/s… — Natasha Loder (@natashaloder) June 6, 2012

Not the best effort.

This just in: Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets dramatic news:

latest exits adjustment nowhas it walker 52, barrett 48 — Craig Gilbert(@WisVoter) June 6, 2012

If true then that's it then, Walker's won. Game over.

Presumably, the change in the figure came from adding later data from the field. But that's quite a swing from the slightly earlier poll showing an even 50/50 split.

With about six per cent of precincts reporting, the New York Time's Nate Silver likes Scott Walker so far:

Exit polls show a tie, but Walker's numbers look pretty decent so far in rural Wisconsin. Dems will need huge Milwaukee/Madison turnout. — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) June 6, 2012

Let me say this: if Walker wins, as seems likely, there will be some very, very happy Republicans around.

By the way: anyone wondering about the main photograph at the top of this page, Reuters reports that it is a mural showing a collage of visiting Hispanic artists who performed in the area, located at the Hispanic Heritage Center in Milwaukee.

The Huffington Post doesn't just publish "side boob" microsites, it also has this fantastic Wisconsin voting chart that allows you to compare tonight's voting to the 2010 results.

Let's dive into the exit poll data from Wisconsin:

• Union households made up about a third of the electorate, and about two-thirds of them backed Tom Barrett, about the same level of support he received among the group in 2010

• Barrett improved on his 2010 performance among African Americans, those with incomes below $50,000 and independents. Barrett won 95% of the African American vote, up from 87% in 2010

• Both Walker and Barrett retained more than 9 in 10 of those who backed them in 2010. Walker marginally won independent voters by 50%-49%

• About one in 10 voters said they did not vote in 2010 – and they broke heavily for Barrett

• About 9 in 10 in early exit polling said they decided who to vote for before May. Those who did make up their minds in the final month of the campaign supported Barrett by nearly 30 points

More from the exit poll – and it may be tight in the recall race, but Wisconsin voters still appear to be backing Barack Obama come November.

The exit poll has Obama getting 54% to Mitt Romney's 42% – and that's a poll that should be more accurate than most state polls at this point, given the circumstances. That must be a disappointment for Republicans.

Gary Younge sees some last minute stragglers dashing in at the last moment to vote in Milwaukee:

At 7.58pm outside the Keenan health centre, recall supporters chivvied up the stragglers: "Come on blood seriously get in there." "You're the on who came to my door," said the young man, struggling to run as his trousers sagged halfway down his legs. "I'm here like I said." A minute later the polls closed to applause.

Gary adds that everywhere he's been has had long lines but no problems.

The first exit poll from Wisconsin – according to CNN – shows a 50/50 split between Scott Walker and Tom Barrett.

Wolf Blitzer has the RNC chairman Reince Priebus on, and he's being low key.

Meanwhile, the Guardian's Gary Younge is touring those polling places in Milwaukee that are reported to have run out of ballot papers. He has some good news:

Been to two of the polling stations - Ben Franklin and the one on West Burleigh. If there was a problem there it's over now. On to the next few

So polls are supposed to have closed in Wisconsin, although state law allows those in line to vote if they are there at the time voting officially ends.

Right then, let's see some more exit polling then.

All this rabbiting on and polls have already closed in New Jersey, where someone named Mitt Romney – if that is his real name – has won the Republican presidential primary.

Yes they are still having those. Ron Paul was second with, let's see, 10%.

There are some other results that may or may not be important. I will note that three candidates running for the Republican US senate nomination in New Jersey have the surnames Kyrillos, Rullo and Qarmout – which are not only awesome Scrabble words but signs that the GOP is more diverse than you might think.

So far Joe Kyrillos is well in the lead.

There was a lot of talk over Barack Obama's non-appearance in Wisconsin during the recall campaign – but it's worth noting that Mitt Romney didn't show his face in the Badger State either.

2. Romney polling/political operation is strong...We all thought a 5-point Walker win. Maybe they saw something else + why he didn't go in. — Erin McPike (@ErinMcPike) June 6, 2012

RealClearPolitics's very clever Erin McPike also wonders why, via Twitter.

The Guardian's Gary Younge is on the ground in Milwaukee, and sends this alarming news:

Many polling locations here in the inner city of Milwaukee are running out of ballots and voter registration forms. Based on the anecdotes I'm hearing from the field, it's safe to say that hundreds and hundreds of people have not voted as a result. Here are specifics: Wards 104, 105: Keenan Health Center, 3200 N 36th St

Wards 110, 111: Children's Outing Association, 2320 W Burleigh St.

Wards 108, 109: Ben Franklin, 2308 W Nash

Other wards: 141, 142, 148 and 170

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel carries a similar report of shortages over an hour ago: "Registration forms and ballots are running out at some City of Milwaukee polling sites."

Some Wisconsin numbers to bear in mind once we see some voting totals later tonight, for comparison with the last election in 2010.

The 2010 governor's race – won narrowly by Scott Walker – saw a total of 2,160,832 votes.

Again, in 2010 – a total of 220,273 votes were cast in Dane County, with 341,017 in Milwaukee, and 188,278 in Waukesha County.

What's making this election live blog especially exciting for me is that the office upstairs is either being rebuilt by drunken teenagers or the CIA has opened a new black site.

With just under an hour to go, what should we be watching out for to judge the winners and losers from the recall election?

• Turnout: it's a cliche of politics but turnout wins elections. In this case, Democrats want to get out the 2008 voters who carried the state for Barack Obama – and then stayed home in 2010 and allowed Scott Walker to narrowly carry the governorship

• Dane County versus Waukesha County: these are the top two vote centres of the state, with heavily Democratic Dane vying against GOP stronghold Waukesha. Turnout in those centres in particular – compared with 2010 – will be important

• Downballot recalls: as well as Walker, the state's Republican lieutenant governor and four Republican state senators are also facing recalls tonight. The Republicans hold a slender 17-16 lead in Wisconsin's upper chamber and a loss of that majority will hurt walker even if he holds on

Wisconsin's recall election has been a year in the making – and it all comes down to tonight, with polls in the Badger state closing in one hour and governor Scott Walker's fate decided.

Already there is talk of recounts and legal challenges – most likely if the result is close, to within less than 10,000 votes – and anecdotal evidence suggests some parts of the state have seen high turnout, raising the prospect of a long and bitter fight.

We'll be live blogging all the results and activity in Wisconsin as it happens, with the Guardian's journalists Rory Carroll and Gary Younge on the ground and taking the pulse. We'll also be covering the elections happening else in America tonight, most notably in California, where a controversial tobacco tax goes before the voters and a gaggle of Republicans jostle to take on incumbent Democratic senator Diane Feinstein.

So sit back and enjoy the show – it could be a long night. Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section below. And you can follow the Guardian team's witty asides and recycled jokes on Twitter here.

Catch up on the rest of the day's action with our earlier live blog here.