At the European parliament elections on 22 May, Nigel Farage and Ukip look on course to generate the earthquake they have promised. But on the same day, Ukip will also be fighting local elections up and down the country, hoping to build strongholds that will be essential for success at the 2015 general election.

Having collected data from all of these local councils for the first time, today we can take a unique look at Ukip's growing presence in local elections, their specific threat to Labour and the Conservatives and their targeting of areas being vacated by the moribund BNP and its local strongholds.

First, we found that locally Ukip really is gunning for Labour: targeting working-class areas where Labour is locally dominant in the hope of cementing support among blue-collar voters, and forcing Miliband to promise an EU referendum. Overall, Ukip is putting up more than 2,600 candidates in the local elections, which is more than a threefold increase on the 739 in 2010 (the last time the seats were fought). Many councils are also about to have their first taste of Ukip – 49 councils will see the party go from having absolutely no presence in 2010 to putting forward at least 10 candidates this year. But much of this growth is happening in Labour territory.

Below is an exclusive look at Ukip's local election presence in 2014, mapped for us by the Election Data blog. It shows how Ukip will have a far stronger presence in northern Labour areas in 2014, and how the 2014 elections will be different from last year's county council elections when Ukip broke through in the Tory-leaning shires. In fact, our analysis reveals that a total of 1,074 Ukippers will stand in Labour councils, nearly a fourfold increase on the 287 in 2010. On average, Labour councils will see 14 Ukip candidates each in 2014, compared with only four in 2010.

Ukip map

This has been driven by big increases in the number of Ukip candidates in places such as Sunderland, where the number has grown from zero in 2010 to 24 today. Ukip is fielding at least 30 candidates in the Labour areas of Birmingham and Slough, and at least 20 in Labour areas such as Barking and Dagenham, Bolton, Doncaster, Dudley, Leeds, Newcastle-under-Lyme, North Tyneside, Rotherham, Sefton, Sheffield, Sunderland, Wirral and Wolverhampton. These are big increases. In 2010 only one of these councils (Dudley) saw more than 20 Ukip candidates. Locally, Ukip is now gunning for Labour. The impact of this remains to be seen.

Second, we also found that Ukip is not neglecting Conservative councils. Our second map shows areas where the number of Ukip candidates has increased most since 2010, and demonstrates strong growth in blue territory. In 2010, Ukip did not put forward more than 15 candidates in any Tory-held council area, but this year will stand at least this many in 20 Tory-held areas. The largest clusters are in places such as Croydon (42), Bromley (35), Havering (30), Swindon (20) and Maidstone (19). There are other big increases in Amber Valley, Cherwell, Harrogate, Wandsworth and Welwyn and Hatfield, all of which were "Ukip-free" in 2010 but now have at least 15 Ukip candidates, as Farage continues his quest to win over disillusioned Tories.

Ukip increase map

Third, we found that Ukip is at least trying to overcome its historic weakness in London, where all council seats are up for election. This year will see 463 Ukip candidates stand across 32 London boroughs, compared with only 87 in 2010. But these are not scattered evenly; big clusters are in Croydon (42), Bromley (35), Havering (30), Hillingdon (24) and Barking and Dagenham (21), while Ukip is almost absent in the more affluent London boroughs of Islington, Kensington and Chelsea. The high concentrations of middle-class university graduates, younger voters and ethnic minorities in London poses serious problems for Ukip, which struggles with these groups. The party's best hopes are likely to lie in the struggling, and more homogeneously white, boroughs of outer-east London, where they may capitalise on the collapse of the BNP.

This brings us to a fourth finding, that in some areas Ukip is moving in on territory once held by the BNP. Farage openly admits he is targeting BNP voters and this year we will see whether these voters are receptive. In Barking and Dagenham, once the BNP's greatest success story, the number of BNP candidates has slumped from 17 in 2010 to four in 2014. Ukip's presence has jumped threefold from seven to 21. Similar battles will be seen in areas such as Barnsley, Broxbourne and Oldham, where political space vacated by the BNP is being filled by a resurgent Ukip. Where will all of the 2010 BNP voters go this year?

Lastly, Ukip is also clearly attempting to cement strongholds in areas where the party was previously active. As in 2010, Ukip will fight every ward in Eastleigh, and is now armed with polling data that suggests it could win the seat in 2015. We will now see how Ukip can fare against a still powerful local Liberal Democrat machine. Other areas where Ukip is building on prior activism include Adur, Dudley, Lincoln, Newcastle-under-Lyme, North East Lincolnshire, Plymouth, Rotherham, Sefton and Wirral, which are also areas (or close to areas) where Ukip did well in 2013. Can this momentum continue?