Victory for England, fireworks from Chris Gayle and a Sri Lankan meltdown: our pundits set out their forecasts for a month and a half of ODIs

Who will win?

Vic Marks Australia. England may have the batsmen but Australia, if they’re fit and firing, have the bowlers in Starc and Cummins, plus a highly motivated Warner and Smith. Two other reasons: they have won five out of 11 World Cups. I’m usually wrong.

Ali Martin England to replicate the 2003 rugby team by turning the previous year’s hard-earned No 1 status into the ultimate silverware. Home conditions, just two knockout rounds – and fresh pitches for these – all help. Possibly.

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Andy Bull Best take a deep breath before I commit to this but England are. Which is a wildly disorienting feeling for anyone who’s followed them in these tournaments before.

Barney Ronay Paywalled TV cricket will be the winner. Beyond that England, unnatural as it is even to suggest it. Or Australia, which feels somehow more comforting.

Emma John The heart says England, the head says they could blow a vital match. The hosts may be ranked No 1 but other teams are more consistent under pressure.

Tanya Aldred To boldly go where the women went in 2017 – England! A ruthless machine, with built-in safety measures all down the order. Throw in brotherly love, steely-eyed Morgan and no fear – the cup awaits …

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Who are the dark horses?

VM New Zealand because it’s always New Zealand with their black caps and kit. They have matchwinners yet they have reached just one final - last time in Melbourne.

AM West Indies. They have beaten England twice already this year, Chris Gayle clearing the rope 39 times in four innings – more than the entire opposition line-up. Andre Russell’s power and Shannon Gabriel’s pace have since been added too.

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AB The West Indies are eighth in the world rankings but they have enough match-winning talent to beat anyone if their captain, Jason Holder, can just keep them all happy.

BR New Zealand. Perennial semi-finalists, so not a surprise. But if Trent and Tim get the white ball to swing for more than three overs they might wreck some brittle top orders.

EJ South Africa are hardly unfancied but they’re certainly a little overlooked. Faf du Plessis could marshall his unstarry team to the semis at the very least.

TA Pakistan. Famously hopeless till it matters, their ludicrously bad fielding during the whitewash by England means only one thing: they’ve got something up their sleeve.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Jason Holder will lead West Indies for the tournament. Photograph: Antonio Olmos/The Observer

Who will be the star player?

VM Jos Buttler. The time is right. He must be near the peak of his powers now; he has experience; he manages risk better yet scores just as quickly. And he is still very hungry. Just hope he stays alert at the non-striker’s end.

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AM This is the World Cup that lands slap bang in the middle of what are surely Virat Kohli’s prime years. As the greatest ODI batsman the game has witnessed to date, he will want to make it count.

AB Chris Gayle, because he always is. He’s retiring right after the tournament’s over so you can be sure he’s going to do something spectacular somewhere along the way and, if he doesn’t, it’ll still be fun watching him try.

BR Kohli is always the star player. Buttler might just be the most devastating presence.

EJ Assuming it’ll be a batsman-gone-nuclear, I’ll plump for Virat Kohli or Jos Buttler. Since Kohli’s captaincy could be as influential as his batting, he has the edge.

TA Kane Williamson. He trains, he surfs, he plays, he chills, he trains, he scores, he leads - quietly, but with utter resolve.

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Who or what will be the biggest flop?

VM Aside from a very damp June there is the possibility (no more than that) of too many dead games towards the end of a marathon exercise to find the semi-finalists. And the absence – for the first time in a World Cup in England – of free-to-air live television coverage.

AM The biggest flop will still be the decision to cut the tournament to 10 teams, regardless of how good it is (and it be should be very good indeed). Scotland proved as much against England last summer.

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AB The legacy. The ECB CEO Tom Harrison keeps saying it’s “a once in a generation opportunity”, but the tournament’s not live on free-to-air TV and no one ever fell in love with cricket because of highlights.

BR Sri Lanka look shambolically under-prepared, indeed England-esque. Any defeat for India is always epic, simply because the presumption of victory is also always epic.

EJ Rudimental at the opening ceremony. Cricket and pop music have never played well together. The official World Cup song shows no sign of beginning a new era.

TA Australia – too much pressure from the long history of success to the visible legacy of sandpapergate in the ranks.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Sri Lanka: under-prepared? Photograph: Mike Hewitt/IDI via Getty Images

My predicted final positions in the round robin are …

VM England, India, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, West Indies, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan.

AM England, India, Australia, West Indies, Pakistan, New Zealand, South Africa, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka.

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AB India, England, West Indies, South Africa, New Zealand, Australia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka.

BR England, India, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, West Indies, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka.

EJ England, India, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, West Indies, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka.

TA India, England, New Zealand, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Australia, West Indies, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh.

I can’t wait for …

VM The semi-finals. That’s when a delicious tension takes over and the carefree swashbuckling can give way to gritty pragmatism since there is so much at stake.

AM The next Justin Langer press conference. With previous hits including the phrases “elite mateship”, “elite humility” and “elite honesty”, the Australia head coach could well be the star of the summer.

AB India v Pakistan at Old Trafford. These games hardly ever seem to live up to the insane levels of hype around them any more but it’s still one of the great rivalries in sport.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest India’s fans during the Champions Trophy match against Pakistan at Edgbaston in 2017. Photograph: Reuters Staff/Reuters

BR England v Afghanistan on a tired pitch at Old Trafford. The actual knockout rounds. Sadly just the two, sadly almost a month and a half away.

EJ The semi-finals. I can’t see the wider public engaging with the tournament until then but, if England are on a roll, it’ll be fun to see the pubs filling with newfound fans.

TA India v Pakistan: 72 years of history – and governmental animosity - condensed into an Old Trafford tinderbox, plus Virat Kohli, Fakhar Zaman and the rest. Just don’t let it rain.