

What does Big Draft know?

It knows a lot of things about a lot of people that don’t find their way into scouting reports or media coverage until after the draft, and it’s always a surprise. Jesse Williams fall out of the first round into the fifth round, or Antonio Richardson’s fall from the second round into UDFA were not well modeled by larger media coverage of the draft, but Teddy Bridgewater’s fall out of the top ten was, as was Shayne Skov’s fight for a contract after the draft.

For the most part, missing these pieces of information make it difficult to predict the draft, and big boards from third parties without a strong access journalism background can miss on these players. But that doesn’t mean the evaluations are wrong, or even that they’re worse at evaluating.

Right now, for example, people (including me) are freaking out because Vic Beasley isn’t in Mel Kiper and Todd McShay’s most recent first-round mock draft. Freaking out not necessarily because they are doing anything ill-advised or dumb, but because this is the kind of thing driven by their access to teams. It is, for example, a more extreme inverse version of Breshad Perriman’s constant appearance in the first round of Kiper’s mock drafts.

There are two general approaches to draft coverage: 1) Who is going to pick who and 2) Who is good. Last year, we separated the draft boards into two categories: Forecasters (who do a job more closely resembling question #1) and Evaluators (who are closer to answering question #2 than question #1).

Generally speaking, the forecasters have been or are currently employed by media organizations that thrive on access, and that gives them access as well. Beyond that, people like Nolan Nawrocki (formerly of Pro Football Weekly and NFL.com) publish draft guides that are driven in big ways by the access they have.

Sometimes that access influences the actual talent evaluation, but often it will influence the final grade by speaking to the gravity of character concerns, injury concerns or some other errata.

Last year, unusual clusters of similar rankings at odd points in the charts confirmed (to me) the clear separation between those two groups of draft boards. This year, there are far fewer clusters in that data (it’s a more polarizing draft), but they do show up.

The media haven’t finalized their rankings, however, and we’re missing a lot of big names, like Daniel Jeremiah, Mike Mayock and Mel Kiper, who all have fewer than 100 players ranked. Expect those boards to solidify in the coming week and create starker divisions between the forecasters and evaluators.

Their boards, plus the biggest disagreements and most polarizing players below. If you want to jump straight to the 300-player version of the final consensus board, click here.

If you want to look at what the forecasters are saying right away, click here. For the evaluators, click here.

For alternate boards, click here.

Player Polarity

Most Polarizing

The first thing we’re doing is not looking at the differences between the evaluators and forecasters, but the differences between all boards, and which players are the most difficult to project. Last year, we found that players that drew the hottest takes—Johnny Manziel and Jadeveon Clowney—weren’t necessarily the most polarizing players in the draft as far as player rankings go.

Teddy still found a way high up on the list, though.

We identified three things that generally got a player on this list of top twenty most polarizing players: injury, tape/measureables split (sometimes small players and sometimes slow players) and uneven careers.

We can add off-field concerns to that list, by the way.

The Polar Score below isn’t contingent upon the difference between a player’s highest and lowest ranks (see that Shane Ray is third, not first) even though those things are listed. It accounts for their overall rank and the fact that a difference between #1 on a board and #5 on a board is much bigger than a difference between #70 and #80 on a board.

It looks at unevenness from a lot of boards, not just the outliers. So the fact that one board has Winston as their 34th-ranked player didn’t really have an impact. That Winston’s consistently ranged from #1 to #34 with most of the ranks in between did. So this isn’t a measurement of who drew the biggest outliers.

Polarity Rank Player Polar Score High Low Overall Rank 1 Jameis Winston 9.52 1 34 2 2 Marcus Mariota 3.19 1 25 3 3 Shane Ray 2.73 1 92 15 4 Dorial Green-Beckham 2.70 12 173 33 5 Lorenzo Mauldin 2.29 45 387 89 6 Dante Fowler Jr. 2.15 2 38 5 7 Danny Shelton 2.14 5 86 13 8 Arik Armstead 2.11 9 130 24 9 Byron Jones 2.10 13 168 41 10 DeAndre Smelter 1.88 77 600 188 11 Mitch Morse 1.65 68 450 157 12 Andrus Peat 1.58 9 108 21 13 Todd Gurley 1.49 2 46 9 14 Brandon Scherff 1.48 4 34 7 15 Eric Rowe 1.45 14 208 63 16 Brett Hundley 1.45 5 246 67 17 Tre’ Jackson 1.42 21 308 74 18 Randy Gregory 1.38 2 35 10 19 Frank Clark 1.36 65 450 162 20 Vic Beasley 1.36 3 41 8

So, in this case we have uneven year-to-year careers (Jameis Winston, Brandon Scherff, etc), injury (Todd Gurley, DeAndre Smelter) and a lot of off-field concerns (including Winston; the combination propelled him to a runaway lead), which don’t just include Jameis, but a lot of folks on the list. There’s also players with great measureables and missing or poor tape, and players with some good tape and iffy measureables.

We also have some system fit /scheme issues, with Marcus Mariota, DeAndre Smelter, Shane Ray and so on.

Of note, Mel Kiper’s enthusiasm for Breshad Perriman hasn’t affected the other forecaster boards (yet). Kiper’s board isn’t included yet, but Perriman ranks 36th by the forecasters and 40th by the evaluators.

Anyways, congratulations to Jameis Winston! I’m sure he saw this coming, and I’m equally confident it really won’t matter.

Least Polarizing

If we have a consensus #1, that’s not really news, but if we have a consensus #75? Well, that’s not news either, but it is curious.

Taking a look at the least polarizing players after accounting for draft position can produce some interesting quirks. What makes it such that everyone agrees that Durell Eskridge is basically the 165th-best player in the draft if people can’t agree on the 164 players before him? I don’t really know, but maybe you do.

Unity Rank Player Polar Score High Low Overall Rank 1 Durell Eskridge 0.18 103 248 165 2 Wes Saxton 0.19 98 263 182 3 Sean Hickey 0.19 117 285 170 4 Dezmin Lewis 0.21 75 228 152 5 Duke Johnson 0.21 27 105 55 6 T.J. Yeldon 0.21 41 109 67 7 Jake Ryan 0.22 76 262 157 8 Kevin White (WR) 0.22 3 13 6 9 Vince Mayle 0.23 92 248 155 10 Devin Smith 0.23 29 95 50 11 Tony Lippett 0.23 86 215 122 12 Ladarius Gunter 0.23 116 304 186 13 Quandre Diggs 0.23 80 246 161 14 Rashad Greene 0.24 52 166 76 15 Karlos Williams 0.24 109 289 176 16 Eli Harold 0.25 14 63 32 17 Jamison Crowder 0.25 57 181 111 18 Christian Covington 0.26 59 283 131 19 Dres Anderson 0.27 65 246 167 20 Tyler Kroft 0.27 58 230 118

These are more statistical anomalies than anything. If you have a random distribution of player rankings, some are just going to end up as consensus “picks,” but there are occasionally patterns. Because we’ve adjusted for overall rank, the fact that Leonard Williams is a very strong consensus number one isn’t included.

Quandre Diggs has a lot of fans, but I think people are generally disinclined to rank him as a Top 100 player despite how much they like him because of his height and fit as a nickel corner instead of as a boundary corner. A similar thing may be happening to Rashad Greene on offense, though this time it seems like people are keeping him out of the top 50, not 100.

The only player in the top 20 that shows up here is Kevin White, who was ranked 5th, 6th or 7th by 42 percent of the boards I looked at, an astounding place to be in—especially because he carries a lot of the markers of a potentially polarizing player.

He’s had an uneven career (though this time he ended on a high note, unlike Will Sutton last year and Winston/Scherff this year), comes from a system with projection concerns (though he’s no Tavon Austin/Stedman Bailey in that respect), had surprisingly good measureables and is a relatively unpolished player.

In the top 50 are Devin Smith (who I suppose I stand alone on as a massively underrated player) and Eli Harold, while Duke Johnson is just outside that mark.

Forecasters v. Big Board

Biggest Disagreements

Now we’ll look at the biggest disagreements between the groups of boards, not just the individual boards. Last year, when we looked at the biggest agreements between the groups of boards, the forecasters came out well ahead when it came to… forecasting.

Evaluator Wins Forecaster Wins Ties Top 32 0 2 1 Top 50 0 4 1 Top 100 1 9 1 Top 256 9 31 1

The table above looks at any player who had a Polar Score of 1.0 or higher, and the “win” was awarded to which set of boards was closer to the actual pick in the draft.

If we exclude Taylor Lewan (the tie), that’s a 6-0 win for forecasters in the top 50 and a 9-1 landslide in the top 100. But last year, the forecasters were in much more agreement than this year, at least before these boards finalize. We’ll produce final results when we have CBS’ board update, as well as updates from Kiper, the NFL Network guys, Scouts, Inc., Josh Norris, Matt Miller and more.

For now, the differences can still be demonstrative.

Overall Rank Player Eval Forecast Difference Difference Score 164 Tyeler Davison 138 230 92 2.01 145 Zach Hodges 129 208 79 1.71 254 David Parry 300 197 103 1.56 63 Eric Rowe 52 89 37 1.51 192 DeAndre Smelter 164 246 82 1.35 198 Kyle Emanuel 225 149 76 1.34 249 Chaz Green 284 194 90 1.27 167 Dres Anderson 188 126 62 1.18 184 Justin Coleman 165 241 76 1.17 159 Mitch Morse 178 119 59 1.17 144 Stefon Diggs 168 112 56 1.15 34 Jake Fisher 31 52 21 1.14 39 Byron Jones 37 60 23 1.06 146 Shaquille Mason 128 187 59 1.06 169 Sean Mannion 192 132 60 1.05 225 Xzavier Dickson 260 184 76 1.02

It seems the notion that Sean Mannion is getting the Tom Savage treatment is sort of true, but not to the same degree. Players that show up on this list have a few things in common, but one thing worth pointing out: it’s difficult to find good film of them.

Some of them play in the PAC-12, which is pretty aggressive about taking down videos on the go-to amateur breakdown resource, draftbreakdown.com. Others play for smaller schools or those without a lot of tape on the site, like Byron Jones, Zach Hodges, DeAndre Smelter, Shaquille Mason, Kyle Emanuel, Stefon Diggs and so on.

Does that mean that the forecasters are more correct? It’s intuitive, after all: they have much more resources and can access that game film, or at the very least have access to people who have access to that.

On the other hand, it’s far easier to feed misinformation to those that aren’t well known. It isn’t very credible or useful for a team to attempt to mitigate Leonard Williams’ draft stock. No matter how much a team lies about Williams, he’s going top five (barring something massively unforeseen), so there’s not much to gain from it.

For a player like David Parry, a team could artificially boost him to obscure an interest in someone else, or do the opposite to Zach Hodges—who teams may like a lot, but not talk about in order to keep him quiet. Scouting has a really large reach for a lot of teams, but it’s not perfect in its reach or its market for information.

Expect all this to change once we get those final updates again.

Anyway, screw the PAC-12.

Biggest Agreements

We don’t think Vince Mayle is a top 150 player, but dammit if he isn’t just outside of it.

Overall Rank Player Eval Forecast Difference Difference Score 155 Vince Mayle 154 154 0 0.00 60 Quinten Rollins 61 61 0 0.00 30 D.J. Humphries 30 30 0 0.00 28 Jaelen Strong 27 27 0 0.00 22 Eddie Goldman 22 22 0 0.00 19 Malcom Brown 19 19 0 0.00 6 Kevin White (WR) 6 6 0 0.00 5 Dante Fowler Jr. 5 5 0 0.00 2 Jameis Winston 2 2 0 0.00 1 Leonard Williams 1 1 0 0.00

Jameis Winston has the unique distinction of being the most polarizing player on the individual boards and the clear consensus at number two. That’s for at least three reasons:

James Winston was either ranked one or two by most people or ranked like 20th. People who didn’t like him, really did not like him. So the two consensus boards generally gave him the second rank even if individual rankers did not.

There was no clear #3. The difference in ranking points between #1 and #2 was huge, but the difference between #2 and #3 was equally large. Marcus Mariota, Kevin White, Amari Cooper, Dante Fowler and Vic Beasley all occupied the third or fourth spot in various rankings, and that really diluted the distribution of points, giving Winston enough of a buffer to overcome the eventual #3.

That dilution of points meant Marcus Mariota and Amari Cooper switched between #3 and #4 between the two boards, and in a system that produced ten ties, that’s enough to knock a player out of contention for being a consensus pick between the two groups.

The fact that one of the best draft insiders in the business (of sorts), Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel just published a piece indicating that a number of scouts are comparing Jameis Winston to Jamarcus Russell, a lot of boards could change in short order.

Go to top.

Go to consensus board.

Go to forecaster board.

Go to evaluator board.

Go to alternate boards.

Forecaster Board



If you wanted the forecaster board, it’s below. Quick note—the role and position concepts were described in my last post, but I’ll post the table here again for a quick reminder of what they mean:

And the board:

Rank Player School Role Role Rk Position Pos Rk 1 Leonard Williams USC 5T 1 IDL 1 2 Jameis Winston Florida St QB 1 QB 1 3 Amari Cooper Alabama FL 1 WR 1 4 Marcus Mariota Oregon QB 2 QB 2 5 Dante Fowler Jr. Florida EDGE 1 EDGE 1 6 Kevin White (WR) West Virginia SE 1 WR 2 7 Brandon Scherff Iowa OT 1 OL 1 8 Todd Gurley Georgia RBF 1 RB 1 9 Trae Waynes Michigan St OCB 1 CB 1 10 Vic Beasley Clemson EDGE 2 EDGE 2 11 Shane Ray Missouri EDGE 3 EDGE 3 12 Randy Gregory Nebraska EDGE 4 EDGE 4 13 DeVante Parker Louisville SE 2 WR 3 14 Andrus Peat Stanford OT 2 OL 2 15 Danny Shelton Washington NT 1 IDL 2 16 Melvin Gordon Wisconsin RBF 2 RB 2 17 Landon Collins Alabama SS 1 S 1 18 Alvin Dupree Kentucky EDGE 5 EDGE 5 19 Malcom Brown Texas NT 2 IDL 3 20 Arik Armstead Oregon 5T 2 IDL 4 21 Ereck Flowers Miami (FL) OT 3 OL 3 22 Eddie Goldman Florida St NT 3 IDL 5 23 La’el Collins LSU OT 4 OL 4 24 Marcus Peters Washington OCB 2 CB 2 25 Kevin Johnson Wake Forest OCB 3 CB 3 26 Cameron Erving Florida St OC 1 OL 5 27 Jaelen Strong Arizona St FL 2 WR 4 28 Eli Harold Virginia EDGE 6 EDGE 6 29 Jordan Phillips Oklahoma NT 4 IDL 6 30 D.J. Humphries Florida OT 5 OL 6 31 Jalen Collins LSU OCB 4 CB 4 32 Eric Kendricks UCLA OFOB 1 OFB 1 33 T.J. Clemmings Pittsburgh OT 6 OL 7 34 Shaq Thompson Washington OFOB 2 OFB 2 35 Breshad Perriman Central Florida SE 3 WR 5 36 Dorial Green-Beckham Missouri SE 4 WR 6 37 Benardrick McKinney Mississippi St OFIB 1 OFB 3 38 Owamagbe Odighizuwa UCLA EDGE 7 EDGE 7 39 Carl Davis Iowa NT 5 IDL 7 40 Devin Smith Ohio State SE 5 WR 7 41 Phillip Dorsett Miami (FL) SE 6 WR 8 42 Nelson Agholor USC FL 3 WR 9 43 Cedric Ogbuehi Texas A&M OT 7 OL 8 44 Tevin Coleman Indiana RBF 3 RB 3 45 Preston Smith Mississippi St EDGE 8 EDGE 8 46 Michael Bennett (DT) Ohio St 3T 1 IDL 8 47 Maxx Williams Minnesota TE 1 TE 1 48 P.J. Williams Florida St OCB 5 CB 5 49 Ronald Darby Florida St OCB 6 CB 6 50 Sammie Coates Auburn FL 4 WR 10 51 Jay Ajayi Boise St RBF 4 RB 4 52 Jake Fisher Oregon OT 8 OL 9 53 Ameer Abdullah Nebraska RBF 5 RB 5 54 Denzel Perryman Miami (FL) OFIB 2 OFB 4 55 Duke Johnson Miami (FL) RBF 6 RB 6 56 A.J. Cann South Carolina OG 1 OL 10 57 Nate Orchard Utah EDGE 9 EDGE 9 58 Devin Funchess Michigan SE 7 WR 11 59 Laken Tomlinson Duke OG 2 OL 11 60 Byron Jones Connecticut OCB 7 CB 7 61 Quinten Rollins Miami (OH) OCB 8 CB 8 62 Paul Dawson TCU OFIB 3 OFB 5 63 T.J. Yeldon Alabama RBF 7 RB 7 64 Danielle Hunter LSU EDGE 10 EDGE 10 65 Tre’ Jackson Florida St OG 3 OL 12 66 Stephone Anthony Clemson OFIB 4 OFB 6 67 Tyler Lockett Kansas St FL 5 WR 12 68 Donovan Smith Penn St OT 9 OL 13 69 Mario Edwards Jr. Florida St EDGE 11 EDGE 11 70 Clive Walford Miami (FL) TE 2 TE 2 71 Hroniss Grasu Oregon OC 2 OL 14 72 Hau’oli Kikaha Washington EDGE 12 EDGE 12 73 Rashad Greene Florida St FL 6 WR 13 74 Grady Jarrett Clemson 3T 2 IDL 9 75 Lorenzo Mauldin Louisville EDGE 13 EDGE 13 76 Brett Hundley UCLA QB 3 QB 3 77 Ifo Ekpre-Olomu Oregon NCB 1 CB 9 78 D’Joun Smith Florida Atlantic NCB 2 CB 10 79 Ali Marpet Hobart OG 4 OL 15 80 Alex Carter Stanford OCB 9 CB 11 81 Markus Golden Missouri EDGE 14 EDGE 14 82 Jaquiski Tartt Samford SS 2 S 2 83 Senquez Golson Ole Miss NCB 3 CB 12 84 Henry Anderson Stanford 5T 3 IDL 10 85 Xavier Cooper Washington St 5T 4 IDL 11 86 Ty Sambrailo Colorado St OT 10 OL 16 87 Bryce Petty Baylor QB 4 QB 4 88 Doran Grant Ohio State OCB 10 CB 13 89 Eric Rowe Utah OCB 11 CB 14 90 Jeremy Langford Michigan St RBF 8 RB 8 91 Marcus Hardison Arizona St 3T 3 IDL 12 92 Derron Smith Fresno St FS 1 S 3 93 Garrett Grayson Colorado State QB 5 QB 5 94 Damarious Randall Arizona State FS 2 S 4 95 David Johnson Northern Iowa RBC 1 RB 9 96 Daryl Williams Oklahoma OT 11 OL 17 97 Justin Hardy East Carolina FL 7 WR 14 98 Za’Darius Smith Kentucky EDGE 15 EDGE 15 99 Trey Flowers Arkansas EDGE 16 EDGE 16 100 Rob Havenstein Wisconsin OT 12 OL 18 101 Javorius Allen USC RBF 9 RB 10 102 Kwon Alexander LSU OFIB 5 OFB 7 103 Mike Davis South Carolina RBF 10 RB 11 104 Cody Prewitt Ole Miss FS 3 S 5 105 Charles Gaines Louisville NCB 4 CB 15 106 Tyler Kroft Rutgers TE 3 TE 3 107 Anthony Harris Virginia SS 3 S 6 108 Ty Montgomery Stanford SWR 1 WR 15 109 Josh Shaw USC OCB 12 CB 16 110 Tre McBride William & Mary SE 8 WR 16 111 Gabe Wright Auburn 3T 4 IDL 13 112 Stefon Diggs Maryland SE 9 WR 17 113 Arie Kouandjio Alabama OG 5 OL 19 114 David Cobb Minnesota RBF 11 RB 12 115 Jeremiah Poutasi Utah OG 6 OL 20 116 Ramik Wilson Georgia OFIB 6 OFB 8 117 James Sample Louisville SS 4 S 7 118 Anthony Chickillo Miami (FL) EDGE 17 EDGE 17 119 Mitch Morse Missouri OT 13 OL 21 120 Kurtis Drummond Michigan St FS 4 S 8 121 Jamison Crowder Duke SWR 2 WR 18 122 Jeff Heuerman Ohio St TE 4 TE 4 123 Jordan Hicks Texas OFIB 7 OFB 9 124 Davis Tull UT-Chattanooga EDGE 18 EDGE 18 125 Josue Matias Florida St OG 7 OL 22 126 Dres Anderson Utah SE 10 WR 19 127 B.J. Finney Kansas St OC 3 OL 23 128 Jacoby Glenn Central Florida OCB 13 CB 17 129 Tyrus Thompson Oklahoma OT 14 OL 24 130 Nick O’Leary Florida St TE 5 TE 5 131 Jake Ryan Michigan OFIB 8 OFB 10 132 Sean Mannion Oregon St QB 6 QB 6 133 John Miller Louisville OG 8 OL 25 134 Tony Lippett Michigan State FL 8 WR 20 135 Chris Conley Georgia SE 11 WR 21 136 Josh Harper Fresno State SWR 3 WR 22 137 Gerod Holliman Louisville FS 5 S 9 138 Christian Covington Rice 5T 5 IDL 14 139 Frank Clark Michigan EDGE 19 EDGE 19 140 Darius Philon Arkansas 3T 5 IDL 15 141 Kevin White (CB) TCU NCB 5 CB 18 142 Kenny Bell Nebraska FL 9 WR 23 143 Taiwan Jones Michigan State OFIB 9 OFB 11 144 Reese Dismukes Auburn OC 4 OL 26 145 Ibraheim Campbell Northwestern SS 5 S 10 146 Cameron Artis-Payne Auburn RBF 12 RB 13 147 Rakeem Nunez-Roches Southern Miss NT 6 IDL 16 148 Jarvis Harrison Texas A&M OG 9 OL 27 149 Kyle Emanuel North Dakota St EDGE 20 EDGE 20 150 Ben Heeney Kansas OFIB 10 OFB 12 151 Geneo Grissom Oklahoma EDGE 21 EDGE 21 152 Jamil Douglas Arizona St OG 10 OL 28 153 Antwan Goodley Baylor SWR 4 WR 24 154 Vince Mayle Washington State FL 10 WR 25 155 Max Garcia Florida OC 5 OL 29 156 JaCorey Shepherd Kansas OCB 14 CB 19 157 Darren Waller Georgia Tech SE 12 WR 26 158 MyCole Pruitt Southern Illinois TE 6 TE 6 159 Durell Eskridge Syracuse FS 6 S 11 160 Ben Koyack Notre Dame TE 7 TE 7 161 Adrian Amos Penn St FS 7 S 12 162 Cedric Reed Texas EDGE 22 EDGE 22 163 Matt Jones Florida RBF 13 RB 14 164 Corey Robinson South Carolina OT 15 OL 30 165 Andy Gallik Boston College OC 6 OL 31 166 Lynden Trail Norfolk St EDGE 23 EDGE 23 167 Max Valles Virginia OFOB 3 OFB 13 168 Craig Mager Texas State OCB 15 CB 20 169 Chris Hackett TCU FS 8 S 13 170 Hayes Pullard USC OFIB 11 OFB 14 171 Karlos Williams Florida St RBF 14 RB 15 172 Clayton Geathers Central Florida SS 6 S 14 173 Dezmin Lewis Central Arkansas SE 13 WR 27 174 Martrell Spaight Arkansas OFOB 4 OFB 15 175 Lorenzo Doss Tulane NCB 6 CB 21 176 Leterrius Walton Central Michigan NT 7 IDL 17 177 Austin Shepherd Alabama OG 11 OL 32 178 Jesse James Penn State TE 8 TE 8 179 Quandre Diggs Texas NCB 7 CB 22 180 Robert Myers Tennessee State OG 12 OL 33 181 Mike Hull Penn State OFIB 12 OFB 16 182 Titus Davis Central Michigan FL 11 WR 28 183 Terrence Magee LSU RBF 15 RB 16 184 Xzavier Dickson Alabama EDGE 24 EDGE 24 185 Tyler Varga Yale FB 1 RB 17 186 Jalston Fowler Alabama FB 2 RB 18 187 Shaquille Mason Georgia Tech OC 7 OL 34 188 Derrick Lott Chattanooga 3T 6 IDL 18 189 Mario Alford West Virginia SWR 5 WR 29 190 Kaleb Eulls Mississippi St 3T 7 IDL 19 191 Blake Bell Oklahoma TE 9 TE 9 192 Mark Glowinski West Virginia OG 13 OL 35 193 Sean Hickey Syracuse OT 16 OL 36 194 Chaz Green Florida OT 17 OL 37 195 Jordan Richards Stanford SS 7 S 15 196 Ladarius Gunter Miami FL OCB 16 CB 23 197 David Parry Stanford NT 8 IDL 20 198 Wes Saxton South Alabama TE 10 TE 10 199 Bryce Hager Baylor OFOB 5 OFB 17 200 Corey Crawford Clemson EDGE 25 EDGE 25 201 Nick Boyle Delaware TE 11 TE 11 202 Xavier Williams Northern Iowa NT 9 IDL 21 203 Alani Fua BYU OFIB 13 OFB 18 204 Bobby McCain Memphis NCB 8 CB 24 205 Josh Robinson Mississippi State RBF 16 RB 19 206 Amarlo Herrera Georgia OFIB 14 OFB 19 207 Ryan Russell Purdue EDGE 26 EDGE 26 208 Zach Hodges Harvard EDGE 27 EDGE 27 209 Jamon Brown Louisville OT 18 OL 38 210 Andrew Donnal Iowa OT 19 OL 39 211 Kyshoen Jarrett Virginia Tech SS 8 S 16 212 Austin Hill Arizona FL 12 WR 30 213 Laurence Gibson Virginia Tech OT 20 OL 40 214 Joey Mbu Houston NT 10 IDL 22 215 Anthony Jefferson UCLA SS 9 S 17 216 Darrian Miller Kentucky OT 21 OL 41 217 Zach Wagenmann Montana EDGE 28 EDGE 28 218 Jean Sifrin Massachusetts TE 12 TE 12 219 Nick Marshall Auburn OCB 17 CB 25 220 Bobby Richardson Indiana 3T 8 IDL 23 221 Louis Trinca-Pasat Iowa 3T 9 IDL 24 222 B.J. Dubose Louisville 3T 10 IDL 25 223 Malcolm Brown Texas RBF 17 RB 20 224 Ellis McCarthy UCLA NT 11 IDL 26 225 Zach Zenner South Dakota St RBF 18 RB 21 226 Trey Williams Texas A&M RBC 2 RB 22 227 Rory Anderson South Carolina TE 13 TE 13 228 Trenton Brown Florida OT 22 OL 42 229 E.J. Bibbs Iowa St TE 14 TE 14 230 Tyeler Davison Fresno St NT 12 IDL 27 231 Angelo Blackson Auburn NT 13 IDL 28 232 Shane Carden East Carolina QB 7 QB 7 233 Thomas Rawls Central Michigan RBF 19 RB 23 234 Obum Gwacham Oregon State EDGE 29 EDGE 29 235 Deontay Greenberry Houston SE 14 WR 31 236 Tony Washington Oregon OFOB 6 OFB 20 237 Deion Barnes Penn State EDGE 30 EDGE 30 238 Damien Wilson Minnesota OFB 1 OFB 21 239 Ray Drew Georgia 5T 6 IDL 29 240 Trey DePriest Alabama OFIB 15 OFB 22 241 Justin Coleman Tennessee NCB 9 CB 26 242 Terry Poole San Diego St OT 23 OL 43 243 Jeff Luc Cincinnati OFIB 16 OFB 23 244 Malcolm Agnew Southern Illinois RBF 20 RB 24 245 Travis Raciti San Jose St 5T 7 IDL 30 246 DeAndre Smelter Georgia Tech SE 15 WR 32 247 Adam Shead Oklahoma OG 14 OL 44 248 Justin Cox Mississippi St FS 9 S 18 249 Tayo Fabuluje TCU OT 24 OL 45 250 Rannell Hall UCF SE 16 WR 33 251 Davaris Daniels Notre Dame FL 13 WR 34 252 Jermaine Whitehead Auburn FS 10 S 19 253 Imoan Claiborne Northwestern St NCB 10 CB 27 254 Quinton Spain West Virginia OG 15 OL 46 255 Damian Swann Georgia OCB 18 CB 28 256 Junior Sylvestre Toledo OFOB 7 OFB 24 257 Brian Mihalik Boston College 5T 8 IDL 31 258 Shaquille Riddick West Virginia EDGE 31 EDGE 31 259 Antoine Everett McNeese State OG 16 OL 47 260 Deiontrez Mount Louisville EDGE 32 EDGE 32 261 Julian Wilson Oklahoma OCB 19 CB 29 262 Devante Davis UNLV SE 17 WR 35 263 J.R. Tavai USC OFIB 17 OFB 25 264 Bobby Hart Florida State OG 17 OL 48 265 Greg Mancz Toledo OC 8 OL 49 266 Quayshawne Buckley Idaho NT 14 IDL 32 267 Deon Simon Northwestern St NT 15 IDL 33 268 Vernon Johnson Texas A&M-Commerce FL 14 WR 36 269 Rob Crisp North Carolina St OT 25 OL 50 270 Deshazor Everett Texas A&M OCB 20 CB 30 271 Chad Hamilton Coastal Carolina OC 9 OL 51 272 Kyle Loomis Portland State P 1 P 1 273 Zach Vigil Utah State OFOB 8 OFB 26 274 Casey Pierce Kent State TE 15 TE 15 275 Steve Nelson Oregon St OCB 21 CB 31 276 Connor Halliday Washington State QB 8 QB 8 277 Erick Dargan Oregon SS 10 S 20 278 James O’Shaughnessy Illinois State TE 16 TE 16 279 Marcus Murphy Missouri RBC 3 RB 25 280 John Crockett North Dakota St RBF 21 RB 26 281 Brandon Bridge South Alabama QB 9 QB 9 282 Jordan Taylor Rice SE 18 WR 37 283 Tavaris Barnes Clemson 5T 9 IDL 34 284 Geremy Davis Connecticut SE 19 WR 38 285 Cody Fajardo Nevada QB 10 QB 10 286 Cody Riggs Notre Dame OCB 22 CB 32 287 Justin Manton Louisiana-Monroe K 1 K 1 288 Martin Ifedi Memphis EDGE 33 EDGE 33 289 Jon Feliciano Miami (FL) OG 18 OL 52 290 Miles Dieffenbach Penn St OG 19 OL 53 291 J.J. Nelson UAB SWR 6 WR 39 292 Tevin McDonald E Washington FS 11 S 21 293 Akeem Hunt Purdue RBC 4 RB 27 294 Bryce Callahan Rice OCB 23 CB 33 295 B.J. Catalon TCU RBC 5 RB 28 296 Mark Nzeocha Wyoming OFOB 9 OFB 27 297 Josh Watson Clemson 3T 11 IDL 35 298 Edmond Robinson Newberry OFOB 10 OFB 28 299 Cody Wichmann Fresno State OG 20 OL 54 300 Levi Norwood Baylor SE 20 WR 40

Go to top.

Go to consensus board.

Go to forecaster board.

Go to evaluator board.

Go to alternate boards.

Evaluator Board



And here’s the evaluator board. I added some boards at the last minute here, so there may be some discrepancies between the rank of a player here and the rank for that player mentioned above in the evaluator ranks in the “biggest differences/agreements” rankings.

Rank Player School Role Role Rk Position Pos Rk 1 Leonard Williams USC 5T 1 IDL 1 2 Jameis Winston Florida St QB 1 QB 1 3 Marcus Mariota Oregon QB 2 QB 2 4 Amari Cooper Alabama FL 1 WR 1 5 Dante Fowler Jr. Florida EDGE 1 EDGE 1 6 Kevin White (WR) West Virginia SE 1 WR 2 7 Vic Beasley Clemson EDGE 2 EDGE 2 8 Brandon Scherff Iowa OT 1 OL 1 9 Todd Gurley Georgia RBF 1 RB 1 10 Randy Gregory Nebraska EDGE 3 EDGE 3 11 DeVante Parker Louisville SE 2 WR 3 12 Alvin Dupree Kentucky EDGE 4 EDGE 4 13 Danny Shelton Washington NT 1 IDL 2 14 La’el Collins LSU OT 2 OL 2 15 Marcus Peters Washington OCB 1 CB 1 16 Trae Waynes Michigan St OCB 2 CB 2 17 Shane Ray Missouri EDGE 5 EDGE 5 18 Melvin Gordon Wisconsin RBF 2 RB 2 19 Malcom Brown Texas NT 2 IDL 3 20 Landon Collins Alabama SS 1 S 1 21 Andrus Peat Stanford OT 3 OL 3 22 Eddie Goldman Florida St NT 3 IDL 4 23 Cameron Erving Florida St OC 1 OL 4 24 Kevin Johnson Wake Forest OCB 3 CB 3 25 Eric Kendricks UCLA OFOB 1 OFB 1 26 Shaq Thompson Washington OFOB 2 OFB 2 27 Jaelen Strong Arizona St FL 2 WR 4 28 Ereck Flowers Miami (FL) OT 4 OL 5 29 Arik Armstead Oregon 5T 2 IDL 5 30 D.J. Humphries Florida OT 5 OL 6 31 Jake Fisher Oregon OT 6 OL 7 32 T.J. Clemmings Pittsburgh OT 7 OL 8 33 Dorial Green-Beckham Missouri SE 3 WR 5 34 Eli Harold Virginia EDGE 6 EDGE 6 35 Owamagbe Odighizuwa UCLA EDGE 7 EDGE 7 36 Maxx Williams Minnesota TE 1 TE 1 37 Byron Jones Connecticut OCB 4 CB 4 38 Jalen Collins LSU OCB 5 CB 5 39 Nelson Agholor USC FL 3 WR 6 40 Breshad Perriman Central Florida SE 4 WR 7 41 Michael Bennett (DT) Ohio St 3T 1 IDL 6 42 Carl Davis Iowa NT 4 IDL 7 43 Preston Smith Mississippi St EDGE 8 EDGE 8 44 Jordan Phillips Oklahoma NT 5 IDL 8 45 Jay Ajayi Boise St RBF 3 RB 3 46 Cedric Ogbuehi Texas A&M OT 8 OL 9 47 P.J. Williams Florida St OCB 6 CB 6 48 Benardrick McKinney Mississippi St OFIB 1 OFB 3 49 Devin Funchess Michigan SE 5 WR 8 50 Devin Smith Ohio State SE 6 WR 9 51 Phillip Dorsett Miami (FL) SE 7 WR 10 52 Eric Rowe Utah OCB 7 CB 7 53 Laken Tomlinson Duke OG 2 OL 11 54 A.J. Cann South Carolina OG 1 OL 10 55 Paul Dawson TCU OFIB 2 OFB 4 56 Tevin Coleman Indiana RBF 4 RB 4 57 Ronald Darby Florida St OCB 8 CB 8 58 Duke Johnson Miami (FL) RBF 5 RB 5 59 Denzel Perryman Miami (FL) OFIB 3 OFB 5 60 Danielle Hunter LSU EDGE 9 EDGE 9 61 Quinten Rollins Miami (OH) OCB 9 CB 9 62 Ameer Abdullah Nebraska RBF 6 RB 6 63 Stephone Anthony Clemson OFIB 4 OFB 6 64 Nate Orchard Utah EDGE 10 EDGE 10 65 Brett Hundley UCLA QB 3 QB 3 66 Mario Edwards Jr. Florida St EDGE 11 EDGE 11 67 T.J. Yeldon Alabama RBF 7 RB 7 68 Ifo Ekpre-Olomu Oregon NCB 1 CB 10 69 Clive Walford Miami (FL) TE 2 TE 2 70 Sammie Coates Auburn FL 4 WR 11 71 Damarious Randall Arizona State FS 1 S 2 72 Ty Sambrailo Colorado St OT 9 OL 12 73 Henry Anderson Stanford 5T 3 IDL 9 74 Trey Flowers Arkansas EDGE 12 EDGE 12 75 Tyler Lockett Kansas St FL 5 WR 12 76 Hau’oli Kikaha Washington EDGE 13 EDGE 13 77 Grady Jarrett Clemson 3T 2 IDL 11 78 Alex Carter Stanford OCB 10 CB 11 79 David Johnson Northern Iowa RBC 1 RB 8 80 Tre’ Jackson Florida St OG 3 OL 13 81 Rashad Greene Florida St FL 6 WR 13 82 Xavier Cooper Washington St 5T 4 IDL 10 83 Ali Marpet Hobart OG 4 OL 14 84 David Cobb Minnesota RBF 8 RB 9 85 Josh Shaw USC OCB 11 CB 12 86 D’Joun Smith Florida Atlantic NCB 2 CB 13 87 Jaquiski Tartt Samford SS 2 S 4 88 Donovan Smith Penn St OT 10 OL 15 89 Justin Hardy East Carolina FL 7 WR 14 90 Derron Smith Fresno St FS 2 S 3 91 Mike Davis South Carolina RBF 9 RB 10 92 Tre McBride William & Mary SE 8 WR 15 93 Hroniss Grasu Oregon OC 2 OL 17 94 Lorenzo Mauldin Louisville EDGE 14 EDGE 14 95 Daryl Williams Oklahoma OT 11 OL 16 96 Senquez Golson Ole Miss NCB 3 CB 14 97 Bryce Petty Baylor QB 4 QB 4 98 Jeff Heuerman Ohio St TE 3 TE 3 99 Markus Golden Missouri EDGE 15 EDGE 15 100 Doran Grant Ohio State OCB 12 CB 15 101 Kwon Alexander LSU OFIB 5 OFB 7 102 Gerod Holliman Louisville FS 4 S 6 103 Jeremiah Poutasi Utah OG 5 OL 18 104 Kevin White (CB) TCU NCB 4 CB 16 105 Cody Prewitt Ole Miss FS 3 S 5 106 John Miller Louisville OG 7 OL 20 107 Jamison Crowder Duke SWR 1 WR 16 108 Arie Kouandjio Alabama OG 6 OL 19 109 Rob Havenstein Wisconsin OT 12 OL 21 110 Za’Darius Smith Kentucky EDGE 16 EDGE 16 111 Ben Heeney Kansas OFIB 6 OFB 8 112 Garrett Grayson Colorado State QB 5 QB 5 113 James Sample Louisville SS 4 S 8 114 Anthony Harris Virginia SS 3 S 7 115 Gabe Wright Auburn 3T 3 IDL 12 116 Javorius Allen USC RBF 10 RB 11 117 Jeremy Langford Michigan St RBF 11 RB 12 118 Chris Conley Georgia SE 9 WR 17 119 Andy Gallik Boston College OC 4 OL 23 120 Marcus Hardison Arizona St 3T 4 IDL 14 121 Ben Koyack Notre Dame TE 4 TE 4 122 Tyler Kroft Rutgers TE 5 TE 5 123 Tony Lippett Michigan State FL 8 WR 18 124 Reese Dismukes Auburn OC 3 OL 22 125 Anthony Chickillo Miami (FL) EDGE 17 EDGE 17 126 Adrian Amos Penn St FS 7 S 12 127 Jordan Hicks Texas OFIB 7 OFB 10 128 Shaquille Mason Georgia Tech OC 5 OL 24 129 Zach Hodges Harvard EDGE 18 EDGE 18 130 Jarvis Harrison Texas A&M OG 8 OL 26 131 Antwan Goodley Baylor SWR 3 WR 20 132 Charles Gaines Louisville NCB 6 CB 19 133 Christian Covington Rice 5T 5 IDL 13 134 Ibraheim Campbell Northwestern SS 5 S 9 135 Ramik Wilson Georgia OFIB 9 OFB 12 136 Max Valles Virginia OFOB 3 OFB 9 137 Kurtis Drummond Michigan St FS 6 S 11 138 Tyeler Davison Fresno St NT 6 IDL 15 139 Ty Montgomery Stanford SWR 2 WR 19 140 Lorenzo Doss Tulane NCB 5 CB 18 141 Josh Harper Fresno State SWR 4 WR 21 142 Hayes Pullard USC OFIB 8 OFB 11 143 Josue Matias Florida St OG 10 OL 28 144 Jacoby Glenn Central Florida OCB 13 CB 17 145 Tyrus Thompson Oklahoma OT 13 OL 25 146 Dezmin Lewis Central Arkansas SE 11 WR 25 147 Jamil Douglas Arizona St OG 9 OL 27 148 Kenny Bell Nebraska FL 9 WR 22 149 Quandre Diggs Texas NCB 7 CB 20 150 Jesse James Penn State TE 6 TE 6 151 Taiwan Jones Michigan State OFIB 11 OFB 15 152 Nick O’Leary Florida St TE 7 TE 7 153 Craig Mager Texas State OCB 14 CB 22 154 Vince Mayle Washington State FL 10 WR 23 155 Cameron Artis-Payne Auburn RBF 13 RB 14 156 Sean Hickey Syracuse OT 15 OL 30 157 B.J. Finney Kansas St OC 6 OL 31 158 Rakeem Nunez-Roches Southern Miss NT 8 IDL 17 159 Corey Robinson South Carolina OT 14 OL 29 160 MyCole Pruitt Southern Illinois TE 9 TE 9 161 Chris Hackett TCU FS 5 S 10 162 Josh Robinson Mississippi State RBF 12 RB 13 163 Malcolm Brown Texas RBF 14 RB 15 164 DeAndre Smelter Georgia Tech SE 14 WR 29 165 Justin Coleman Tennessee NCB 8 CB 21 166 Mike Hull Penn State OFIB 10 OFB 13 167 Durell Eskridge Syracuse FS 8 S 13 168 Stefon Diggs Maryland SE 10 WR 24 169 Jake Ryan Michigan OFIB 12 OFB 17 170 Martrell Spaight Arkansas OFOB 4 OFB 14 171 Blake Bell Oklahoma TE 8 TE 8 172 Bobby McCain Memphis NCB 9 CB 24 173 Frank Clark Michigan EDGE 24 EDGE 24 174 Joey Mbu Houston NT 9 IDL 19 175 Davis Tull UT-Chattanooga EDGE 22 EDGE 22 176 Karlos Williams Florida St RBF 16 RB 17 177 Ellis McCarthy UCLA NT 7 IDL 16 178 Mitch Morse Missouri OT 16 OL 32 179 Clayton Geathers Central Florida SS 6 S 14 180 Cedric Reed Texas EDGE 19 EDGE 19 181 Darius Philon Arkansas 3T 5 IDL 18 182 Wes Saxton South Alabama TE 12 TE 12 183 Lynden Trail Norfolk St EDGE 20 EDGE 20 184 Matt Jones Florida RBF 15 RB 16 185 Xavier Williams Northern Iowa NT 10 IDL 20 186 Ladarius Gunter Miami FL OCB 15 CB 23 187 Damian Swann Georgia OCB 17 CB 26 188 Dres Anderson Utah SE 12 WR 26 189 Titus Davis Central Michigan FL 11 WR 27 190 Nick Marshall Auburn OCB 16 CB 25 191 Geneo Grissom Oklahoma EDGE 21 EDGE 21 192 Sean Mannion Oregon St QB 6 QB 6 193 Devante Davis UNLV SE 13 WR 28 194 Mark Glowinski West Virginia OG 13 OL 36 195 Tony Washington Oregon OFOB 5 OFB 16 196 Jean Sifrin Massachusetts TE 10 TE 10 197 Derrick Lott Chattanooga 3T 6 IDL 21 198 Max Garcia Florida OC 7 OL 34 199 Darren Waller Georgia Tech SE 17 WR 33 200 JaCorey Shepherd Kansas OCB 18 CB 27 201 Corey Crawford Clemson EDGE 23 EDGE 23 202 John Crockett North Dakota St RBF 17 RB 19 203 Jalston Fowler Alabama FB 1 RB 18 204 Bobby Richardson Indiana 3T 7 IDL 22 205 Robert Myers Tennessee State OG 11 OL 33 206 Bryce Hager Baylor OFOB 6 OFB 18 207 Jordan Richards Stanford SS 7 S 15 208 Andrew Donnal Iowa OT 17 OL 37 209 Rannell Hall UCF SE 15 WR 31 210 Adam Shead Oklahoma OG 12 OL 35 211 Nick Boyle Delaware TE 13 TE 13 212 Jamon Brown Louisville OT 18 OL 38 213 Austin Hill Arizona FL 12 WR 30 214 Louis Trinca-Pasat Iowa 3T 8 IDL 23 215 Leterrius Walton Central Michigan NT 11 IDL 24 216 Rory Anderson South Carolina TE 15 TE 15 217 Greg Mancz Toledo OC 8 OL 40 218 Quinton Spain West Virginia OG 17 OL 44 219 E.J. Bibbs Iowa St TE 11 TE 11 220 Terrence Magee LSU RBF 18 RB 20 221 Deontay Greenberry Houston SE 16 WR 32 222 Bryce Callahan Rice OCB 19 CB 28 223 Shaquille Riddick West Virginia EDGE 25 EDGE 25 224 Terry Poole San Diego St OT 19 OL 39 225 Kyle Emanuel North Dakota St EDGE 29 EDGE 29 226 Martin Ifedi Memphis EDGE 26 EDGE 26 227 Jeff Luc Cincinnati OFIB 15 OFB 21 228 Tyler Varga Yale FB 2 RB 22 229 Austin Shepherd Alabama OG 14 OL 41 230 Justin Cox Mississippi St FS 9 S 16 231 Amarlo Herrera Georgia OFIB 13 OFB 19 232 Imoan Claiborne Northwestern St NCB 10 CB 29 233 Tevin McDonald E Washington FS 10 S 17 234 Tayo Fabuluje TCU OT 20 OL 45 235 Deion Barnes Penn State EDGE 27 EDGE 27 236 Trey Williams Texas A&M RBC 2 RB 23 237 Cam Thomas Western Kentucky OCB 20 CB 30 238 Alani Fua BYU OFIB 16 OFB 22 239 Deon Long Maryland SE 18 WR 34 240 Anthony Jefferson UCLA SS 8 S 18 241 Dominique Brown Louisville RBF 19 RB 21 242 Kyshoen Jarrett Virginia Tech SS 9 S 19 243 Geremy Davis Connecticut SE 20 WR 40 244 Terry Williams East Carolina NT 13 IDL 28 245 Deon Simon Northwestern St NT 12 IDL 26 246 Jon Feliciano Miami (FL) OG 15 OL 42 247 Rob Crisp North Carolina St OT 27 OL 56 248 Ryan Russell Purdue EDGE 31 EDGE 31 249 Travis Raciti San Jose St 5T 6 IDL 25 250 Trey DePriest Alabama OFIB 14 OFB 20 251 Deiontrez Mount Louisville EDGE 32 EDGE 32 252 Shane Carden East Carolina QB 9 QB 9 253 Brandon Bridge South Alabama QB 8 QB 8 254 Zach Vigil Utah State OFOB 7 OFB 23 255 Miles Dieffenbach Penn St OG 16 OL 43 256 Ryan Delaire Towson EDGE 30 EDGE 30 257 Mario Alford West Virginia SWR 5 WR 38 258 Cody Fajardo Nevada QB 7 QB 7 259 Zach Zenner South Dakota St RBF 21 RB 26 260 Xzavier Dickson Alabama EDGE 28 EDGE 28 261 Detrick Bonner Virginia Tech FS 14 S 24 262 Kaleb Eulls Mississippi St 3T 9 IDL 27 263 Ray Drew Georgia 5T 7 IDL 30 264 Cedric Thompson Minnesota FS 11 S 20 265 Bobby Hart Florida State OG 20 OL 50 266 Gerald Christian Louisville TE 14 TE 14 267 Eric Lefeld Cincinnati OT 21 OL 46 268 Kasen Williams Washington FL 14 WR 36 269 Bryan Bennett Southeastern Louisiana QB 10 QB 10 270 Davaris Daniels Notre Dame FL 13 WR 35 271 Trenton Brown Florida OT 22 OL 49 272 Deshazor Everett Texas A&M OCB 22 CB 32 273 Taylor Heinicke Old Dominion QB 12 QB 12 274 Ben Beckwith Mississippi St OG 18 OL 47 275 Darrian Miller Kentucky OT 26 OL 55 276 Chucky Hunter TCU 3T 10 IDL 32 277 James Castleman Oklahoma St NT 18 IDL 37 278 Sam Carter TCU SS 10 S 21 279 Darius Kilgo Maryland NT 16 IDL 33 280 Chris Bonner Colorado State-Pueblo QB 13 QB 13 281 Angelo Blackson Auburn NT 15 IDL 31 282 Takoby Cofield Duke OG 19 OL 48 283 Dean Marlowe James Madison FS 12 S 22 284 Chaz Green Florida OT 25 OL 53 285 Michael Dyer Louisville RBF 20 RB 24 286 Connor Halliday Washington State QB 14 QB 14 287 Damien Wilson Minnesota OFB 1 OFB 25 288 Blake Sims Alabama QB 11 QB 11 289 Steve Nelson Oregon St OCB 23 CB 33 290 Antoine Everett McNeese State OG 22 OL 57 291 James Vaughters Stanford EDGE 33 EDGE 33 292 Erick Dargan Oregon SS 13 S 27 293 Bernard Blake Colorado State OCB 24 CB 34 294 A.J. Derby Arkansas TE 18 TE 18 295 DeAndrew White Alabama FL 16 WR 44 296 Edmond Robinson Newberry OFOB 8 OFB 26 297 Julian Wilson Oklahoma OCB 21 CB 31 298 J.R. Tavai USC OFIB 17 OFB 24 299 Randall Telfer USC TE 16 TE 16 300 David Parry Stanford NT 17 IDL 36

Choose either board and make them your own. Or look at the few ways we can create consensus boards.

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Updated Consensus Boards

Logarithmic Points Board



The method I’ve been using this year is different than last year in order to create a consensus. In my mind, it naturally reduces the impact of outliers, but really it is designed to reflect the fact that the process of putting a player number one on a board is a big thing—identifying the best player among thousands is significantly more meaningful than the third-best.

In this case, I gave each player points for each rank they got, indexed to the draft value chart—which generally follows a logarithmic point distribution. I made some modifications so that players in the top 500 of any board would get points, not just the top 224.

Adding those points up and ranking players that way made sense to me (and is also part of the reason Winston ranks second)—a player who ranks first and third (3001 and 2434 points on this modified chart) on two different boards would have more points than a player who ranks second on two different boards (2643 points twice on this chart—5286 points are less than 5435).

The difference is not so extreme that a player who consistently ranks second cannot beat a player who gets ranked first often while also getting ranks in the 30s almost as often, but it still privileges players who caught the eye of evaluators more than those who had a ceiling.

With every analyst’s board weighted equally, this is what we end up with using a logarithmic points distribution:

Rank Player School Role Role Rk Position Pos Rk 1 Leonard Williams USC 5T 1 IDL 1 2 Jameis Winston Florida St QB 1 QB 1 3 Marcus Mariota Oregon QB 2 QB 2 4 Amari Cooper Alabama FL 1 WR 1 5 Dante Fowler Jr. Florida EDGE 1 EDGE 1 6 Kevin White (WR) West Virginia SE 1 WR 2 7 Brandon Scherff Iowa OT 1 OL 1 8 Vic Beasley Clemson EDGE 2 EDGE 2 9 Todd Gurley Georgia RBF 1 RB 1 10 Randy Gregory Nebraska EDGE 3 EDGE 3 11 DeVante Parker Louisville SE 2 WR 3 12 Alvin Dupree Kentucky EDGE 4 EDGE 4 13 Danny Shelton Washington NT 1 IDL 2 14 Trae Waynes Michigan St OCB 1 CB 1 15 Shane Ray Missouri EDGE 5 EDGE 5 16 La’el Collins LSU OT 2 OL 2 17 Melvin Gordon Wisconsin RBF 2 RB 2 18 Marcus Peters Washington OCB 2 CB 2 19 Malcom Brown Texas NT 2 IDL 3 20 Landon Collins Alabama SS 1 S 1 21 Andrus Peat Stanford OT 3 OL 3 22 Eddie Goldman Florida St NT 3 IDL 4 23 Arik Armstead Oregon 5T 2 IDL 5 24 Ereck Flowers Miami (FL) OT 4 OL 4 25 Cameron Erving Florida St OC 1 OL 5 26 Kevin Johnson Wake Forest OCB 3 CB 3 27 Eric Kendricks UCLA OFOB 1 OFB 1 28 Jaelen Strong Arizona St FL 2 WR 4 29 Shaq Thompson Washington OFOB 2 OFB 2 30 D.J. Humphries Florida OT 5 OL 6 31 T.J. Clemmings Pittsburgh OT 6 OL 7 32 Eli Harold Virginia EDGE 6 EDGE 6 33 Dorial Green-Beckham Missouri SE 3 WR 5 34 Jake Fisher Oregon OT 7 OL 8 35 Owamagbe Odighizuwa UCLA EDGE 7 EDGE 7 36 Jalen Collins LSU OCB 4 CB 4 37 Maxx Williams Minnesota TE 1 TE 1 38 Breshad Perriman Central Florida SE 4 WR 6 39 Byron Jones Connecticut OCB 5 CB 5 40 Nelson Agholor USC FL 3 WR 7 41 Jordan Phillips Oklahoma NT 4 IDL 6 42 Carl Davis Iowa NT 5 IDL 7 43 Preston Smith Mississippi St EDGE 8 EDGE 8 44 Michael Bennett (DT) Ohio St 3T 1 IDL 8 45 Jay Ajayi Boise St RBF 3 RB 3 46 Benardrick McKinney Mississippi St OFIB 1 OFB 3 47 Cedric Ogbuehi Texas A&M OT 8 OL 9 48 P.J. Williams Florida St OCB 6 CB 6 49 Phillip Dorsett Miami (FL) SE 5 WR 8 50 Devin Smith Ohio State SE 6 WR 9 51 Devin Funchess Michigan SE 7 WR 10 52 Tevin Coleman Indiana RBF 4 RB 4 53 A.J. Cann South Carolina OG 1 OL 10 54 Ronald Darby Florida St OCB 7 CB 7 55 Duke Johnson Miami (FL) RBF 5 RB 5 56 Laken Tomlinson Duke OG 2 OL 11 57 Paul Dawson TCU OFIB 2 OFB 4 58 Denzel Perryman Miami (FL) OFIB 3 OFB 5 59 Ameer Abdullah Nebraska RBF 6 RB 6 60 Quinten Rollins Miami (OH) OCB 8 CB 8 61 Danielle Hunter LSU EDGE 9 EDGE 9 62 Nate Orchard Utah EDGE 10 EDGE 10 63 Eric Rowe Utah OCB 9 CB 9 64 Stephone Anthony Clemson OFIB 4 OFB 6 65 Sammie Coates Auburn FL 4 WR 11 66 Brett Hundley UCLA QB 3 QB 3 67 T.J. Yeldon Alabama RBF 7 RB 7 68 Mario Edwards Jr. Florida St EDGE 11 EDGE 11 69 Clive Walford Miami (FL) TE 2 TE 2 70 Ifo Ekpre-Olomu Oregon NCB 1 CB 10 71 Grady Jarrett Clemson 3T 2 IDL 9 72 Tyler Lockett Kansas St FL 5 WR 12 73 Hau’oli Kikaha Washington EDGE 12 EDGE 12 74 Tre’ Jackson Florida St OG 3 OL 12 75 Ty Sambrailo Colorado St OT 9 OL 13 76 Rashad Greene Florida St FL 6 WR 13 77 Henry Anderson Stanford 5T 3 IDL 10 78 Alex Carter Stanford OCB 10 CB 11 79 Damarious Randall Arizona State FS 1 S 2 80 Trey Flowers Arkansas EDGE 13 EDGE 13 81 David Johnson Northern Iowa RBC 1 RB 8 82 Ali Marpet Hobart OG 4 OL 14 83 Xavier Cooper Washington St 5T 4 IDL 11 84 Donovan Smith Penn St OT 10 OL 15 85 Hroniss Grasu Oregon OC 2 OL 16 86 Jaquiski Tartt Samford SS 2 S 3 87 David Cobb Minnesota RBF 8 RB 9 88 D’Joun Smith Florida Atlantic NCB 2 CB 12 89 Lorenzo Mauldin Louisville EDGE 14 EDGE 14 90 Justin Hardy East Carolina FL 7 WR 14 91 Josh Shaw USC OCB 11 CB 13 92 Derron Smith Fresno St FS 2 S 4 93 Mike Davis South Carolina RBF 9 RB 10 94 Senquez Golson Ole Miss NCB 3 CB 14 95 Tre McBride William & Mary SE 8 WR 15 96 Bryce Petty Baylor QB 4 QB 4 97 Daryl Williams Oklahoma OT 11 OL 17 98 Markus Golden Missouri EDGE 15 EDGE 15 99 Doran Grant Ohio State OCB 12 CB 15 100 Jeff Heuerman Ohio St TE 3 TE 3 101 Kwon Alexander LSU OFIB 5 OFB 7 102 Cody Prewitt Ole Miss FS 3 S 5 103 Garrett Grayson Colorado State QB 5 QB 5 104 Za’Darius Smith Kentucky EDGE 16 EDGE 16 105 Jeremiah Poutasi Utah OG 5 OL 18 106 Rob Havenstein Wisconsin OT 12 OL 19 107 Arie Kouandjio Alabama OG 6 OL 20 108 Jeremy Langford Michigan St RBF 10 RB 11 109 Gerod Holliman Louisville FS 4 S 6 110 Anthony Harris Virginia SS 3 S 7 111 Jamison Crowder Duke SWR 1 WR 16 112 Gabe Wright Auburn 3T 3 IDL 12 113 Javorius Allen USC RBF 11 RB 12 114 Kevin White (CB) TCU NCB 4 CB 16 115 John Miller Louisville OG 7 OL 21 116 James Sample Louisville SS 4 S 8 117 Marcus Hardison Arizona St 3T 4 IDL 13 118 Tyler Kroft Rutgers TE 4 TE 4 119 Ben Heeney Kansas OFIB 6 OFB 8 120 Anthony Chickillo Miami (FL) EDGE 17 EDGE 17 121 Charles Gaines Louisville NCB 5 CB 17 122 Tony Lippett Michigan State FL 8 WR 17 123 Chris Conley Georgia SE 9 WR 18 124 Ty Montgomery Stanford SWR 2 WR 19 125 Jordan Hicks Texas OFIB 7 OFB 9 126 Ramik Wilson Georgia OFIB 8 OFB 10 127 Reese Dismukes Auburn OC 3 OL 22 128 Kurtis Drummond Michigan St FS 5 S 9 129 Ben Koyack Notre Dame TE 5 TE 5 130 Ibraheim Campbell Northwestern SS 5 S 10 131 Christian Covington Rice 5T 5 IDL 14 132 Josh Harper Fresno State SWR 3 WR 20 133 Andy Gallik Boston College OC 4 OL 23 134 Jarvis Harrison Texas A&M OG 8 OL 24 135 Josue Matias Florida St OG 9 OL 25 136 Adrian Amos Penn St FS 6 S 11 137 Tyrus Thompson Oklahoma OT 13 OL 26 138 Jacoby Glenn Central Florida OCB 13 CB 18 139 Antwan Goodley Baylor SWR 4 WR 21 140 Nick O’Leary Florida St TE 6 TE 6 141 Max Valles Virginia OFOB 3 OFB 11 142 Kenny Bell Nebraska FL 9 WR 22 143 B.J. Finney Kansas St OC 5 OL 27 144 Stefon Diggs Maryland SE 10 WR 23 145 Zach Hodges Harvard EDGE 18 EDGE 18 146 Shaquille Mason Georgia Tech OC 6 OL 28 147 Jamil Douglas Arizona St OG 10 OL 29 148 Cameron Artis-Payne Auburn RBF 12 RB 13 149 Hayes Pullard USC OFIB 9 OFB 12 150 Taiwan Jones Michigan State OFIB 10 OFB 13 151 Lorenzo Doss Tulane NCB 6 CB 19 152 Dezmin Lewis Central Arkansas SE 11 WR 24 153 Rakeem Nunez-Roches Southern Miss NT 6 IDL 15 154 Davis Tull UT-Chattanooga EDGE 19 EDGE 19 155 Vince Mayle Washington State FL 10 WR 25 156 MyCole Pruitt Southern Illinois TE 7 TE 7 157 Jake Ryan Michigan OFIB 11 OFB 14 158 Jesse James Penn State TE 8 TE 8 159 Mitch Morse Missouri OT 14 OL 30 160 Craig Mager Texas State OCB 14 CB 20 161 Quandre Diggs Texas NCB 7 CB 21 162 Frank Clark Michigan EDGE 20 EDGE 20 163 Corey Robinson South Carolina OT 15 OL 31 164 Tyeler Davison Fresno St NT 7 IDL 16 165 Durell Eskridge Syracuse FS 7 S 12 166 Darius Philon Arkansas 3T 5 IDL 17 167 Dres Anderson Utah SE 12 WR 26 168 Chris Hackett TCU FS 8 S 13 169 Sean Mannion Oregon St QB 6 QB 6 170 Sean Hickey Syracuse OT 16 OL 32 171 Mike Hull Penn State OFIB 12 OFB 15 172 Geneo Grissom Oklahoma EDGE 21 EDGE 21 173 Clayton Geathers Central Florida SS 6 S 14 174 Lynden Trail Norfolk St EDGE 22 EDGE 22 175 Cedric Reed Texas EDGE 23 EDGE 23 176 Karlos Williams Florida St RBF 13 RB 14 177 Martrell Spaight Arkansas OFOB 4 OFB 16 178 Matt Jones Florida RBF 14 RB 15 179 Blake Bell Oklahoma TE 9 TE 9 180 Josh Robinson Mississippi State RBF 15 RB 16 181 Malcolm Brown Texas RBF 16 RB 17 182 Wes Saxton South Alabama TE 10 TE 10 183 Bobby McCain Memphis NCB 8 CB 22 184 Justin Coleman Tennessee NCB 9 CB 23 185 JaCorey Shepherd Kansas OCB 15 CB 24 186 Ladarius Gunter Miami FL OCB 16 CB 25 187 Xavier Williams Northern Iowa NT 8 IDL 18 188 Ellis McCarthy UCLA NT 9 IDL 19 189 Joey Mbu Houston NT 10 IDL 20 190 Titus Davis Central Michigan FL 11 WR 27 191 Max Garcia Florida OC 7 OL 33 192 DeAndre Smelter Georgia Tech SE 13 WR 28 193 Darren Waller Georgia Tech SE 14 WR 29 194 Mark Glowinski West Virginia OG 11 OL 34 195 Jalston Fowler Alabama FB 1 RB 18 196 Derrick Lott Chattanooga 3T 6 IDL 21 197 Corey Crawford Clemson EDGE 24 EDGE 24 198 Kyle Emanuel North Dakota St EDGE 25 EDGE 25 199 Robert Myers Tennessee State OG 12 OL 35 200 Nick Marshall Auburn OCB 17 CB 26 201 Jean Sifrin Massachusetts TE 11 TE 11 202 Jordan Richards Stanford SS 7 S 15 203 Damian Swann Georgia OCB 18 CB 27 204 Leterrius Walton Central Michigan NT 11 IDL 22 205 Bryce Hager Baylor OFOB 5 OFB 17 206 Tony Washington Oregon OFOB 6 OFB 18 207 Terrence Magee LSU RBF 17 RB 19 208 Devante Davis UNLV SE 15 WR 30 209 Bobby Richardson Indiana 3T 7 IDL 23 210 Andrew Donnal Iowa OT 17 OL 36 211 Tyler Varga Yale FB 2 RB 20 212 Nick Boyle Delaware TE 12 TE 12 213 Jamon Brown Louisville OT 18 OL 37 214 Austin Shepherd Alabama OG 13 OL 38 215 Austin Hill Arizona FL 12 WR 31 216 E.J. Bibbs Iowa St TE 13 TE 13 217 Louis Trinca-Pasat Iowa 3T 8 IDL 24 218 John Crockett North Dakota St RBF 18 RB 21 219 Rory Anderson South Carolina TE 14 TE 14 220 Rannell Hall UCF SE 16 WR 32 221 Adam Shead Oklahoma OG 14 OL 39 222 Amarlo Herrera Georgia OFIB 13 OFB 19 223 Deontay Greenberry Houston SE 17 WR 33 224 Quinton Spain West Virginia OG 15 OL 40 225 Xzavier Dickson Alabama EDGE 26 EDGE 26 226 Justin Cox Mississippi St FS 9 S 16 227 Greg Mancz Toledo OC 8 OL 41 228 Terry Poole San Diego St OT 19 OL 42 229 Shaquille Riddick West Virginia EDGE 27 EDGE 27 230 Jeff Luc Cincinnati OFIB 14 OFB 20 231 Alani Fua BYU OFIB 15 OFB 21 232 Trey Williams Texas A&M RBC 2 RB 22 233 Mario Alford West Virginia SWR 5 WR 34 234 Anthony Jefferson UCLA SS 8 S 17 235 Deion Barnes Penn State EDGE 28 EDGE 28 236 Bryce Callahan Rice OCB 19 CB 28 237 Kaleb Eulls Mississippi St 3T 9 IDL 25 238 Tayo Fabuluje TCU OT 20 OL 43 239 Kyshoen Jarrett Virginia Tech SS 9 S 18 240 Ryan Russell Purdue EDGE 29 EDGE 29 241 Imoan Claiborne Northwestern St NCB 10 CB 29 242 Martin Ifedi Memphis EDGE 30 EDGE 30 243 Zach Zenner South Dakota St RBF 19 RB 23 244 Tevin McDonald E Washington FS 10 S 19 245 Shane Carden East Carolina QB 7 QB 7 246 Deiontrez Mount Louisville EDGE 31 EDGE 31 247 Trey DePriest Alabama OFIB 16 OFB 22 248 Travis Raciti San Jose St 5T 6 IDL 26 249 Chaz Green Florida OT 21 OL 44 250 Deon Simon Northwestern St NT 12 IDL 27 251 Darrian Miller Kentucky OT 22 OL 45 252 Ray Drew Georgia 5T 7 IDL 28 253 Rob Crisp North Carolina St OT 23 OL 46 254 David Parry Stanford NT 13 IDL 29 255 Geremy Davis Connecticut SE 18 WR 35 256 Cam Thomas Western Kentucky OCB 20 CB 30 257 Trenton Brown Florida OT 24 OL 47 258 Zach Vigil Utah State OFOB 7 OFB 23 259 Deon Long Maryland SE 19 WR 36 260 Brandon Bridge South Alabama QB 8 QB 8 261 Dominique Brown Louisville RBF 20 RB 24 262 Jon Feliciano Miami (FL) OG 16 OL 48 263 Steve Nelson Oregon St OCB 21 CB 31 264 Cody Fajardo Nevada QB 9 QB 9 265 Angelo Blackson Auburn NT 14 IDL 30 266 Miles Dieffenbach Penn St OG 17 OL 49 267 Bobby Hart Florida State OG 18 OL 50 268 Davaris Daniels Notre Dame FL 13 WR 37 269 Antoine Everett McNeese State OG 19 OL 51 270 Laurence Gibson Virginia Tech OT 25 OL 52 271 Ryan Delaire Towson EDGE 32 EDGE 32 272 Zach Wagenmann Montana EDGE 33 EDGE 33 273 Deshazor Everett Texas A&M OCB 22 CB 32 274 Damien Wilson Minnesota OFB 1 OFB 24 275 B.J. Dubose Louisville 3T 10 IDL 31 276 Detrick Bonner Virginia Tech FS 11 S 20 277 Terry Williams East Carolina NT 15 IDL 32 278 Thomas Rawls Central Michigan RBF 21 RB 25 279 Gerald Christian Louisville TE 15 TE 15 280 Obum Gwacham Oregon State EDGE 34 EDGE 34 281 Malcolm Agnew Southern Illinois RBF 22 RB 26 282 Jermaine Whitehead Auburn FS 12 S 21 283 Julian Wilson Oklahoma OCB 23 CB 33 284 J.R. Tavai USC OFIB 17 OFB 25 285 Bryan Bennett Southeastern Louisiana QB 10 QB 10 286 Ben Beckwith Mississippi St OG 20 OL 53 287 Connor Halliday Washington State QB 11 QB 11 288 Cedric Thompson Minnesota FS 13 S 22 289 Eric Lefeld Cincinnati OT 26 OL 54 290 Erick Dargan Oregon SS 10 S 23 291 James Castleman Oklahoma St NT 16 IDL 33 292 Taylor Heinicke Old Dominion QB 12 QB 12 293 Kyle Loomis Portland State P 1 P 1 294 Takoby Cofield Duke OG 21 OL 55 295 Michael Dyer Louisville RBF 23 RB 27 296 Kasen Williams Washington FL 14 WR 38 297 Dean Marlowe James Madison FS 14 S 24 298 Edmond Robinson Newberry OFOB 8 OFB 26 299 Chris Bonner Colorado State-Pueblo QB 13 QB 13 300 Vernon Johnson Texas A&M-Commerce FL 15 WR 39

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Weighted Evalucastor Board



For the sake of page-load times and ease of navigation, I’m hosting the other boards and board theories on different Google Docs pages that you can click to, but I will highlight some key differences in this approach. In this case, instead of weighting the boards individually, we can weight the two groups equally. You can find the equal-weight board here.

Of note, it only goes to 200 because washing out the individual boards makes it too difficult to really incorporate rankings of the players at the bottom in a meaningful way.

The biggest rank-adjusted differences with this board from the board where we averaged every individual analyst’s rankings are fairly easy to tell—those that appeared on the “biggest disagreements” list without appearing on the “most polarizing” list had the most movement from the consensus board to the weighted board.

Byron Jones had the most movement, ranking 39th on the consensus board but 48th on the forecaster board, while Jake Fisher (34th to 41), Bud Dupree (12th to 15th) and Trae Waynes (14th to 11th) round out the top in terms of differences.

Also experiencing big changes: Zach Hodges (145th to 164th), Andrus Peat (21st to 17th), Amari Cooper (4th to tied for 3rd), David Cobb (87th to 98th), Jordan Phillips (41st to 35th) and Marcus Peters (18th to 21st).

Other Boards and How They Differ

There are three other approaches I’ll highlight. The first is the averaged rank board, which is what it sounds like: it averages all the ranks (of what are now 30 boards). In this case, a player ranked 1st on one board and 3rd on another board is identical to a player ranked 2nd on both boards. A player with the ranks 1, 1, 1, 3, 4, and 22 is equal to one ranked 1, 5, 6, 6, 7 and 7—which would then reward good players for consistency and penalize bad players for not flashing. It also either rewards or penalizes players who in the eyes of some evaluators either have killer traits or fatal flaws that overwhelm the rest of their evaluation.

Check out that board here.

The biggest difference on that board belongs to DeAndre Smelter, who ranked 223rd on the averaged ranks board and 192 on the consensus board. Others who moved quickly from the consensus to averaged board are Frank Clark (162nd to 187th), Marcus Mariota (3rd to 4th), Byron Jones (46th to 39th), Amari Cooper (4th to 3rd), Mitch Morse (159th to 178th), Ronald Darby (54th to 62nd) and Arik Armstead (23rd to 26th).

That is particularly sensitive to outliers. Ranked 77th on Ian Wharton’s board and 97th on Nolan Nawrocki’s board pushed him up in big ways, which pushed him up in this version of the board. Same with Byron Jones, ranked 13th by NFL Rough Draft.

Ronald Darby’s drop was driven in part by Optimum Scouting’s 106th overall ranking for him, and Kyle Crabb’s 96th ranking didn’t help him either.

Of note, those that ranked Mitch Morse generally put him in the top 150, but he went unranked enough on a lot of boards (some with over 400 players) that he dropped significantly in this version of the board. He may be worth watching.

That could be too sensitive to outliers, but if we still want to follow the same model of treating ordinal rankings arithmetically instead of geometrically (i.e. if we want a player ranked 1 and 3 to tie a player ranked 2 and 2) we could use the median instead. That way a player ranked 1, 1, 1, 3, 4 and 22 would outrank a player ranked 1, 5, 6, 6, 7 and 7, but a player ranked 1, 33, 34, 35, 36 and 109 would tie a player ranked 34, 34, 34, 35, 35 and 35.

Check out that board here.

In that board, the biggest change goes to Corey Crawford, who jumps from 197th to 127th. After that, it’s a bunch of the same thing: Karlos Williams jumps from 176th to 127th. So do Cedric Reed (175th to 127th), Lynden Trail (174th to 127th), Clayton Geathers (173rd), Geneo Grissom (172nd), Mike Hill (171st), Sean Hickey (170th) and Sean Mannion (169th).

The reason for that is because the 127th ranking is the automatic ranking for a player not ranked on any of the top 100 boards, but do appear on boards that go beyond 100. So, that’s not useful. What about a combination?

We’ll look at the interquartile values. That is to say, we’ll dispense of the highest and lowest 25 percent of rankings and average only those in between.

Here is that board.

The biggest difference there is once again Marcus Mariota, but this time positive outliers are eliminated, so he drops from third to 5th. After him is Andy Gallik, who drops from 137th to 157th. The 17th overall ranking that Crabbs gave Gallik has been eliminated, as has been the 69th overall ranking Steve Shoup at Fanspeak gave him. Bobby McCain moves from 183rd to 213, while DeAndre Smelter moves to 221 from 192.

Mitch Morse makes another appearance, going from 159 to 137, while Eric Rowe drops to 73rd from 63rd. Zach Hodges goes from 145 to 164 and Durell Eskridge goes from 165 to 144, virtually swapping with Hodges.

We’ll use the logarithmic math board during the draft with our live coverage here at Vikings Territory, including position and role-specific boards, updating as the draft roles on. Then we’ll grade the draft using these tools in order to keep the best coverage you can find on the draft.

If you know of a big board I should include that I may not have, please email me at [email protected]