Entering the 2017 off-season, Lance Lynn was probably feeling pretty good about his pending free agency. He was coming off a year in which he posted a 3.43 ERA over 186.1 IP, and posted career bests in WHIP, GS, and hits per 9. Save for a missed season in 2016, when he was recovering from Tommy John, Lynn had no less than 175 IP in a season and actually led the National League in starts in 2017.Couple this with the fact that Lynn was just 30 years old, I think it’s safe to say that Lynn thought his payday was coming. However, this failed to be the case. As most people know, the 2017 off-season saw owners become very reluctant to spend money on free agents despite record high revenue numbers, which prompted cries of collusion from the MLBPA and fans alike. Lynn was personally victimized by this lack of spending, and as result had to hold out to March to sign a measly 1yr/$14mm deal with the Minnesota Twins.

Now fast-forward to the 2018 off-season, where once again, Lynn had to test the waters of Free Agency. In 2018, Lynn produced career worsts in ERA, WHIP, BB/9, and H/9 while also giving up the highest percentage of hard contact rate in his career. However, it is important to note that not only did Lynn pitch for two different teams in 2018, he also had two different pitching profiles with those two teams, respectively. Firstly, in his time with Minnesota in 2018 Lynn had a below average strikeout rate and had the highest walk rate of any pitcher min. 100 inning, to go along with a dreadful +5 ERA. However, when he got to New York he had an above average strikeout rate, increasing it from 21.3% to 26.4%, and was able to drastically improve his walk rate from 13.2% to 6.1%. In New York, Lynn was also able to post a .258 expected wOBA to go a long with a minuscule 2.17 FIP, which ranked in the top 15 and top 5 in the league post-July, respectively. Secondly, another thing that drastically improved when Lynn went to the pinstripes was his effectiveness against righties. An absurd metric that captures this improvement is in his time with the Yankees, Lynn posted a 38:1 K:BB ratio against righties! 38:1!! One factor that could be contributed as the cause of this improvement is the adjustment Lynn made with regards to where he stands on the rubber. Apparently during a Minnesota road trip in late July, Lance started placing his feet closer to the third base side of the pitching mound, while also adjusting the way his right foot was placed on the rubber. According to former Twins pitching coach Garvin Alston, this was all in an attempt to get Lynn’s glutes more active in his delivery, and promote synchronization between his lower and upper half. Taking a look at baseball savant, the data supports this proposition by Alston:

So now that brings us to the contract that Lynn secured from Texas this off season that will pay him $30 million over the next three years. Did Lynn really improve that much over the course of 54.1 IP with the Yankees, to warrant a non contender with very little hope of making the playoffs within the foreseeable future to shell out $30mm? And what change of heart did Texas undergo in the span of a year that they decided to give a player who limped into a 1 year deal last march, a three year guaranteed deal especially after he is coming off what was arguably the worst year of his career? I guess it all boils down to how much emphasis you place on peripherals in a short sample. Lynn significantly improved his fastball value and location while with the Yankees and Texas is banking on this being the new norm for the 6”5, 280 pound righty. Lynn also significantly squashed the homeruns when he made the move over to the Pinstripes, as well as reducing the amount of quality contact and you can bet that the Rangers are betting on this trend continuing, with signing of Lynn to this multi year contract.