The swing state of North Carolina is a key state for the Democrats. If Hillary Clinton bags the state, Donald Trump would have to secure every other swing state to win the election.

Less than two weeks ago, a New York Times poll had Ms Clinton leading by seven points, and the CNN poll had her four points ahead.

Yet early voting data has shown the state is still in fragile territory. A CNN analysis found that Ms Clinton has underperformed president Obama’s 2012 performance in the state and Mr Trump has outpaced Mitt Romney.

Democrats have gained 1.3 million votes so far compared to 990,000 Republicans.

But an early lead does not guarantee success in the Tar Heel state. In 2012, Mr Obama had an early lead but was beaten by Mr Romney on election day.

If the current election follows a similar pattern to that of four years ago, Mr Trump could win the swing state.

The one curve ball so far is the high number of independents who have come out to cast their ballots. Around 810,000 independents have voted, up by 42 per cent since the last presidential election.

Four years ago, independents cast their ballot for more traditional Republican Mr Romney. The former candidate has been a vocal critic of the current Republican nominee, labelling himself a "phony" and a "fraud".

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While votes for Libertarian party candidate Gary Johnson have gone up - expected to reach 5 per cent - the number of African Americans and college students coming out to vote has been on the decline.

One third of Democrats aged between 22 and 29 who voted last time failed to show up in 2016, compared to three-quarters of twenty-something Republicans who did turn up.

Only 82 per cent of the black vote turned up at the polls compared to 2012, as reported by the New York Times.

It is possible the numbers are down due to voter suppression.

Data from insightus has shown that black people are turning out to vote at 91 per cent in the counties where voting is “unimpaired“, and in the 17 counties where voting rights are "impaired", voting goes down to 72 per cent turn out.

US election 2016: the race for the White House in pictures Show all 12 1 /12 US election 2016: the race for the White House in pictures US election 2016: the race for the White House in pictures Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump shakes hands with Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton at the conclusion of their first presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York Reuters US election 2016: the race for the White House in pictures President Barack Obama embraces Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton on stage at the party's convention in Philadelphia US election 2016: the race for the White House in pictures Donald Trump's wife Melania delivered a speech at the GOP convention in Cleveland that was later found to have been cribbed in part from Michelle Obama's 2008 convention address AP US election 2016: the race for the White House in pictures Hillary Clinton talks to reporters aboard her new campaign plane on Labour Day, 5 September, her first 'press conference' since 2015 (Getty Images) US election 2016: the race for the White House in pictures Donald Trump held a joint press conference with Mexican leader Enrique Pena Nieto in Mexico City in August, hours before reiterating his harsh immigration plans at a campaign rally in Arizona Reuters US election 2016: the race for the White House in pictures Bernie Sanders officially endorsed Hillary Clinton, saying his progressive vision for ‘a transformed America’ would be ’best served by the defeat of Donald Trump’ Reuters US election 2016: the race for the White House in pictures Khizr and Gazala Khan appeared at the DNC to slam Trump for his stance on Muslim immigration, citing the case of their son Humayun Khan, who was killed in combat while serving as a Captain in the US Army in Iraq US election 2016: the race for the White House in pictures Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is doing better in polls than any third party candidate since Ross Perot, 20 years ago Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty US election 2016: the race for the White House in pictures Green Party candidate Jill Stein (centre) marches with supporters in Colorado AP US election 2016: the race for the White House in pictures Hillary Clinton and Virginia Senator Tim Kaine at a rally in Kaine's home state in July, days before Ms Clinton tapped him to be her running mate Getty US election 2016: the race for the White House in pictures Trump on the campaign trail with his vice presidential pick, Indiana governor Mike Pence AP US election 2016: the race for the White House in pictures Former Ukip leader Nigel Farage appears at a Trump rally in Mississippi in August, where he told the crowd that he 'wouldn't vote for Hillary Clinton if you paid me'.