Donald Trump is dredging up memories of Jimmy Carter for some Illinois farmers.

The 45th president's trade war with China reminds David Droste of the grain embargo the 39th president slapped on the Soviet Union in 1980. Banned from buying U.S. wheat, Russia ramped up domestic production, transforming into an exporter. Nearly four decades later, Russian wheat undercuts prices for the U.S. crop on the world market.

"The thing about the Russian wheat embargo, we are still paying for that today," says Droste, who farms 2,500 acres about an hour southeast of St. Louis. "That's how long-term this could be if it's not resolved."

Farmers, particularly the soybean growers whose acres spread across Illinois, are paying a steep cost in the geopolitical struggle between China and the United States. China imposed a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soy in July 2018 in retaliation for Trump administration tariffs and added 5 percent Sept. 1. The country has all but stopped buying U.S. soybeans, creating an opening for competitors in South America and the Black Sea region that could reshape the world market in ways not easily undone.

"U.S. agriculture will have to be less reliant on China as a destination for soybeans and other agriculture products" in the future, Ray Young, chief financial officer of agricultural processing giant ADM, warned on July 16.

For the approximately 75,000 farmers in Illinois, permanently losing market share in China could lead to dwindling bank accounts, shrinking credit lines and a rise in foreclosures and bankruptcies.

It certainly means hard choices for farmers this spring. Droste, for example, currently dedicates about half his land to soybeans. The soil in Illinois and Iowa is well suited to the legume, used in animal feed and tofu, among many other products. But the trade war caused at least a 30 percent drop in the price he received for last year's harvest, and if it continues, he may consider changing his crop mix next year.

"Right now we're suited to grow soybeans more than any other crops . . . but if we have a burdensome supply, maybe we have to look at an alternative," Droste says.