From left, are Browns draft picks from 2007: quarterback Brady Quinn (first round, 22nd overall), Eric Wright (second round, 53rd overall) and Joe Thomas (first round, third overall).

Associated Press

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Analytically speaking, as has been the buzz around the Cleveland Browns lately, recent history confirms that offensive linemen are the closet thing to a sure thing in the first round of the NFL Draft.

But if you’re trying to find the so-called franchise quarterback, you might need to assume the increased risk of a potential first-round flop in trying to land your guy.

This is some of what cleveland.com found in scoring results of NFL Drafts going back to 1999 -- the year of the return of the Cleveland Browns -- and studying when AP All-Pros since then were originally drafted. For example, offensive linemen drafted in the first round have gone on to average 12.1 starts a season during their NFL careers, and 86 percent of the offensive linemen picked in the first round before 2014 have started at least 50 games.

In comparison, the quarterbacks taken in the first round have averaged 9.5 starts, with 61 percent starting at least 50 games.



Below is more detail about what we found.

By Rich Exner, cleveland.com



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Rich Exner, cleveland.com

Average starts per season

If you're a team in need of starters, offensive linemen, tight ends and linebackers have been the best bets in drafts since 1999. Offensive linemen taken in the first round have averaged 12.1 starts a season. On the low side are running backs, averaging just 8.4 starts a season.

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Rich Exner, cleveland.com

Second-round is also a good bet for offensive linemen, worse bet for QBs

This chart shows that the second round is also a solid place to find starters on the offensive line -- players taken in that round have averaged 10.4 starts a season, versus 5.2 starts a season for running backs and 5.1 for quarterbacks.

Linebackers (7.9 starts) and defensive backs (7.8 starts) are the next best bets, by this criteria, for the second round.

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Rich Exner, cleveland.com

Long-term starters

If the goal of a draft pick is to find someone who can be penciled into the lineup long-term -- such as Joe Thomas at tackle for the Browns -- again the offensive line is the best bet, followed by tight ends and linebackers.

In drafts from 1999 through 2013, 86 percent of offensive linemen taken in the first round have starting at least 50 games, it's 69 percent for second-rounders and 47 percent for those chosen in the third round.

Running back and quarterback rank lowest in this comparison (62, 24 and 16 percent for quarterbacks and 61, 22 and 13 percent for running backs).

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Lynn Ischay, The Plain Dealer

Center Alex Mack was the Browns' first-round pick in 2009

Shown above with former Browns general manager George Kokinas, left, is center Alex Mack, the team's first-round draft choice in 2009. Mack started all 101 games for the Browns until leaving via free agency before last season.

Mack and Joe Thomas, a first-round pick in 2007, have been among the Browns' best first-round picks since the team's return to the NFL in 1999. Both Mack and Thomas have made first- or second-team AP All-Pro multiple times.

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Rich Exner, cleveland.com

Why first-round picks are so important

First-round picks gain so much attention for a reason: It's where a big share of the stars are found.

Among players named to first- or second-team AP All-Pro teams from 2000-16, more were chosen in the first round (197) than the combined total for rounds three through seven combined (138), cleveland.com found.

By round, nine All-Pros were chosen in the seventh round, 19 in the sixth, 29 in the fifth, 30 in the fourth, 51 in the third, 86 in the second and 197 in the first.

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Rich Exner, cleveland.com

Most All-Pro QBs were first-round picks

When it comes to quarterbacks, first-round picks have proven to be valuable when the right choices are made.

Sixty percent of the drafted All-Pro quarterbacks from 2000-16 were first-round picks. However, the sample size is small. Just 10 drafted quarterbacks have been named first- or second-team All-Pro during this time period.

The first-rounders (six) were Cam Newton, Steve McNair, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan.

The second-rounders (two) were Drew Brees and Brett Favre.

Rich Gannon, drafted in 1987 and an All-Pro in 2000 and 2002, was drafted in the fourth round. Four-time All-Pro Tom Brady was a sixth-round pick.

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A chance to chat during training camp in 2013 are Joe Haden (No. 23) and T.J. Ward (43).

Associated Press

Six All-Pros drafted by the "new" Browns

The Browns, since their return in 1999, have drafted six players who went on to eventually become AP All-Pros -- three offensive linemen, two defensive backs and a wide receiver.

However, one of the these players -- tackle Mitchell Schwartz, drafted in 2012 -- did not make All-Pro until after leaving Cleveland. The others are receiver Braylon Edwards (a 2005 pick), tackle Joe Thomas (2007), center Alex Mack (2009), cornerback Joe Haden (2010) and safety T.J. Ward (2010).

Edwards, Thomas, Mack and Haden were first-round picks. Schwartz and Ward were second-rounders.

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Rich Exner, cleveland.com

Previously: How little height really matters for QBs

At this link, see earlier evaluation of how much height really matters for NFL quarterbacks.

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Pictured clockwise from top left are Santonio Holmes, John Brockington, Archie Griffin, Nick Mangold, Ezekiel Elliott and Joey Bosa.

Marvin Fong, The Plain Dealer, and Associated Press

Previously - 59 Ohio State Buckeyes picked in first round since NFL-AFL merger

Previously in our series looking at the draft history, see the 59 Ohio State Buckeyes chosen in the first round since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970.

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Photo shows Pittsburgh Hall of Fame linebacker Jack Lambert from Kent State University, left, and the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger, during his Miami of Ohio days.

Associated Press

Previously - 51 top picks from Ohio colleges, other than Ohio State

See all 51 players from Ohio colleges, other than Ohio State, who were top-100 picks in the NFL Draft since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970.



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Associated Press

Related - Find every player ever drafted by the NFL

NFL Draft archive: Search by position, college, pro team or name for every player picked in the NFL Draft since the first one in 1936.

Note: Number of games started based on statistics made available by Sports Reference LLC.

Rich Exner, data analysis editor for cleveland.com, writes about numbers on a variety of topics. Follow on Twitter @RichExner.

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