Whilst case numbers in some of these countries are rising quickly, the prevalence of illness is currently orders of magnitude lower than in Hubei Province.

An assessment of the risk of COVID-19 in those countries is based on many factors, including the identification of transmission chains, the number of reported deaths, recent trends in incidence, the incidence of exported cases and modelled estimates of expected numbers of cases based on travel patterns. The ability of countries to respond effectively to infectious disease outbreaks is also an important consideration, along with the feasibility of stringent mobility restrictions given the current phase of the epidemic globally.

With this change in epidemiology, extending travel bans to restrict travel from multiple countries is not likely to be feasible or effective in the medium term. However, it may be appropriate to consider self-isolation or practise social distancing upon return from higher risk regions.