The efforts of Trump’s North Korea policy look to be bearing fruit in the latest wave of sanctions against North Korea. Say what you will about Trump’s bombast, he has a way of goading his opponents into behaving in a self-destructive manner, see the recent NFL debacle. Much the same with North Korea, his escalation of rhetoric and insults has pushed North Korea to reveal the technologies it has developed to the world and put China in a difficult bind. To the extent that China doesn’t want a strong US ally on its border, it also isn’t content with a thermonuclear dictator with a history of rash behavior. They, rightfully to my eyes, see Trump administration as unwilling to back down in the face of aggression against the US and fear the US taking matters into its own hands if the situation continues to escalate. Trump’s overly combative domestic political behavior pays dividends in some respects. So credit goes to Nikki Haley for taking advantage of this leverage at the UN and getting strong international sanctions with very few US concessions. Early signs are that the Chinese will strictly implement the agreed to sanctions. International action was followed up with stringent US financial sanctions when Trump signed an executive order that cut off banks that do business with North Korea from the US financial markets.

The only long term solution is regime change in North Korea and China must be a central player in that process if this is to end peacefully. This will only happen if China sees an independent North Korea as a bigger risk than cooperation in its dissolution. For all the punditry that claims ‘American First’ means ‘go it alone,’ this looks to be an effort with an explicit emphasis on international isolation of North Korea. Historically, sanctions imposed are then traded for promises of better behavior, but if this administration is serious about a permanent fix, expect things to heat up further.

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