John Kasich

How accurate is a photo posted to Gov. John Kasich's re-election Facebook page? Truth in Numbers checked the facts.

((Associated Press))

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Gov. John Kasich boasted about how the state has increased new businesses under his watch in a photo posted to his campaign Facebook page and on his Twitter page.

The photo claims Ohio is on pace to create the most new businesses in history, using data from the Ohio secretary of state's office to back up its claims.

The photo was "liked" more than 1,200 times on Facebook, but some commenters said the chart was misleading. Judging by the bar chart alone, five times as many businesses were formed in fiscal year 2014 than in fiscal year 2010, under then-Gov. Ted Strickland, a Democrat.

Northeast Ohio Media Group measured the post's accuracy with our fact-checking feature Truth in Numbers. We began our analysis Monday, the same day we invited readers to come up with their own scores using our form.

Here's what we found and the average scores from reader responses:

Scoring

Our score Reader score Are the words literally accurate? (0-3 points) 2 2.4 Is the message accurate? (0-3 points) 1 2 Is the message fair? (0-2 points) 1 1.4 Does the message have substance? (0-2 points) 1 1.2 Total score (10 points): 5 7

Here's the photo as it appeared on Kasich's Facebook page (click the image to see the full-size version):

Our Analysis

Are the words literally accurate? (0 to 3 points)

The chart has several checkable claims.

First, the chart cites the Ohio secretary of state as a source for the new business filings in small print. The small print also notes the filings are for the first six months of each year.

The first step to starting a business in Ohio is registering with the secretary of state's office. The office keeps track of all "new business filings" declaring the formation of a "business entity."

"New businesses" is a wide umbrella considering "business entity" includes for-profit, non-profit and professional corporations, limited liability companies, partnerships, limited partnerships and limited liability partnerships. Filing in Ohio does not mean a company will begin operations, be profitable or create jobs, according to the secretary of state.

Secretary of State Jon Husted, in his press releases announcing filing numbers, even recognizes "these numbers can't provide a complete picture of Ohio's jobs climate." We'll return to this point in the next section.

The numbers in the chart match those provided by the secretary of state's office, except for two years. Kasich's chart says 44,443 new businesses filed in 2011 and 41,891 filed in 2010, under then-Gov. Ted Strickland. That's a difference of 2,552 businesses.

Records from the secretary of state's office show 43,988 new businesses filed in 2011 and 41,945 filed in 2010, a difference of 2,043 businesses.

Second, the bar graph does not list the scale used. As is, it would appear the new businesses in the first six months of 2014 were nearly five times greater than in 2010. The numbers tell us that's not exactly true.

Finally, the chart claims the state is on pace to create the most new businesses in its history, backing up the claim with the total number of new business filings during the first six months of the past five years.

The number of new businesses has steadily climbed since 1803 -- the earliest year the secretary of state recorded new businesses. Not taking into account population and law changes since then, the most new businesses were recorded in 2013 -- 89,735. Assuming the rest of 2014 continues to outpace 2013, this statement is accurate.

Score: 2 points

Is the message accurate? (0 to 3 points)

A business entity can be a new retail store, a nonprofit organization or a guy who decides to separate his weekend furniture-building income and assets.

By our estimates, the bar graph uses a scale from 40,000 to 50,000, which makes it seem as though there were nearly five times as many new business filings in 2014 than in 2010.

Using this scale makes it seem that the number of new businesses more than doubled under Kasich's watch than Strickland's -- a great accomplishment for a governor seeking re-election.

Here's what the data looks like when we set the scale at zero:

Because the graph is attempting to show growth, it may have been more appropriate to show the year-over-year change as a percentage.

Here's what that looks like:

Looking at growth as a percentage, the first six months of Strickland's last year in office showed a higher increase than three of the last four years under Kasich.

The results are more pronounced when you look at the full year's numbers:

(We plotted the graphs using the free tool on the National Center for Education Statistics Kid Zone website.)

Score: 1 point

Is the message fair? (0 to 2 points)

The post's main assertion -- that new businesses are increasing under Kasich -- is slightly misleading.

First, there's no guarantee those business entities are little more than a tax savings mechanism or that they will succeed. And the graph does not take into account the number of businesses that have failed, which would paint a more complete picture of business activity in the state.

Going back a few more years, we see that the number of new business filings has steadily increased over time, with a small dip in 2009.

2006 (January through June) 41,664; (total for the year) 79,653 (Republican Gov. Bob Taft)

2007 (January through June) 41,401; (total for year) 77,582

2008 (January through June) 41,145; (total for year) 77,858

2009 (January through June) 39,691; (total for the year) 75,854

2010 (total for the year) 80,273

2011 (total for the year) 82,601

2012 (total for the year) 88,068

2013 (total for the year) 89,735

Score: 1 point

Does the message have substance? (0 to 2 points)

Jobs and the economy have been hot political topics during the past few election cycles, but the numbers Kasich uses in this graph do not tell us much about either.

But Husted, in his releases, call the filings an "important indicator of economic activity" that add to the discussion of how to improve the state's overall business climate.

Score: 1 point

Overall score: 5 out of 10 points