May 4, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/iPolitics poll finds the Liberals out front as the campaign begins. The Mainstreet/iPolitics poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“The Liberals led by Stephen McNeil appear poised to win re-election in Nova Scotia as the campaign begins,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “The lead outside the Halifax area is significantly higher than in greater Halifax, but the undecided rate is also higher. The opposition NDP and Progressive Conservatives are very close, just 3 points separate them among all voters, the NDP with a slight advantage at (22%) vs PCs at 19%.”

“The race to watch is in the Greater Halifax region where the NDP trails the Liberals by just 3 points, (28%-25%) among all voters with over 2 in 10 voters still undecided (22%) and the PCs registering a solid 22% as well. The vote splitting here does not favour the NDP and if they are to make gains they will need to look to undecided voters.”

“In the rest of Nova Scotia, the incumbent Liberals enjoy a comfortable 13 point lead among all voters (35%) over the PCs (22%) and the NDP registers in the mid teens (14%). Here we see a higher undecided rate with over 1 in 4 voters indicating they have not decided how they will vote.”

“There are some significant differences in the demographics of the support as well. The Stephen McNeil led Liberals enjoy the support of 47% of decided and leaning men, that is in contrast to just 38% decided and leaning among women. The support for the Stephen McNeil led Liberals is also markedly higher among older Nova Scotians with 53% support among those over 65, 49% among those between 50 to 64, and just 30% among those 35 to 49 years of age. It increases to 37% among those under 35.”

“Jamie Baillie’s support is consistent except among those 35 to 49 years of age where his support is highest by far at 42%. He is also much more popular with women voters, registering 32% support compared to just 26% among decided and leaning men voters.”

“The Gary Burrill led NDP has consistent support except among those over 65 years of age where they have just 16% support among decided and leaning. That number should be cause for concern for the NDP as older voters tend to vote in greater numbers and they must make gains in that group to have any chance of making gains,” finished Maggi.

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Mainstreet -NS May 1-2 by Mainstreet on Scribd