Rival governments in Tripoli and Tobruk unlikely to sign long-awaited agreement, with experts warning it could cause further fragmentation

Libya’s future is on hold awaiting the signing of a national unity agreement brokered by the United Nations but rejected by the rival governments that have presided over months of chaos in a country witnessing the growing strength of Islamic State.

The UN said that the signing had been delayed for logistical reasons but would go ahead in Morocco on Thursday. Libya-watchers expressed doubts that it would happen, but warned that if it did it could mean the country had three governments instead of two.



Britain hopes that a unity government, to be run by a nine-strong presidency, will invite western powers to mount airstrikes against Isis positions, allowing David Cameron to avoid another Commons vote before dispatching RAF jets. Agreement, hammered out in Rome last weekend, was hailed as “historic” by the US and Italy.



The long-awaited deal was supposed to have been signed on Wednesday after months of wrangling and opposition from hardliners in the opposing administrations that have claimed power since the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi by Nato-backed rebels in 2011.



In a related move, the new UN envoy for Libya, Martin Kobler, met Gen Khalifa Heftar, who commands the armed forces loyal to the eastern-based government, which is recognised internationally.

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Leaders of the rival parliaments in Tripoli and Tobruk met on Tuesday for the first time since the latest fighting started over a year ago. But both dismissed the UN agreement on a unity government as a foreign imposition.



“We met to find a solution of the Libyan crisis and to let the world know that we are able to work [out] our problems by ourselves,” said Aguila Saleh, the president of the House of Representatives in the east. Nuri Abu Sahmain, the head of the Islamist-led General National Congress in Tripoli, said it would consider parts of the UN accord.

Each side is backed by the powerful armed groups that have dominated the Libyan scene since Gaddafi’s fall, and it is unclear how they will react to a political agreement.

“If a government of national unity is formed, there are likely to be factions from both governments that refuse to accept its legitimacy,” warned the Soufan Group, a US-based thinktank. “The fledgling government will likely have a fight on its hands before the ink is dry.”

With signs that many key factions will oppose an agreement, the UN initiative risks worsening the chaos, experts said. “We will end up with an extra government,” predicted the analyst Mohamed Eljarh. “We will not have a unity government. They [Libya parliament leaders] called for postponing. I think it would be foolish from the UN side if they ignore that call.”

In the background is mounting international concern about the growing strength of Isis fighters in the coastal city of Sirte, reinforced by new arrivals from the frontlines of the so-called caliphate in Iraq and Syria.



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Isis units are battling for control of Ajdabiya, a strategically important town that is gateway to the eastern oil ports. In response, Libya’s small air force is pounding their positions outside the town, but western officials think only international airstrikes can push them back.



The terror group already holds 150 miles of coastline around Sirte, giving it a potential springboard for attacks across the Mediterranean. In the past few months it has taken advantage of Libya’s growing chaos to capture oilfields in the Sirte basin.

Diplomats fear the loss of the oil ports will cement Isis control, while French and US reconnaissance flights have already begun in preparation for possible airstrikes. As with Syria, Isis has expanded into the vacuum caused by civil war.

“The rise of the Islamic State in Libya was a deliberate strategy by the group’s leadership in Syria, which recognised the opportunity presented by the severe instability in the country,” said the Soufan report. “Libya represents an additional profit centre for the Islamic State, and a new destination for foreign fighters – particularly those from neighbouring Tunisia and Algeria.”