​ Newly-released British Election Study data has revealed new insights into why people voted to leave the European Union on June 23rd.



Analysis by the British Election Study team highlights how the vote for Brexit was related to people’s sense of control, nostalgia for the past, ‘social capital’, distrust of experts, and identifying with either side of the campaign. The new data also reveals the extent of ‘Bregret’ (Leave voters regretting Brexit if they thought Remain would win), but states that this was not actually significant in relative terms.



The data found that those with an external ‘locus of control’ - people who tend to believe their lives are controlled by outside forces they cannot influence - were far more likely to vote leave. It also revealed that nearly 80% of respondents who those who agreed with the statement ‘things in Britain were better in the past’ voted to leave, whereas fewer than 15% of those who strongly disagreed did so.



The study found that those with the lowest social capital - the level of a person’s interpersonal networks like family, friends, and community - were almost twice as likely to have voted leave as those with the highest levels.



Predictions from the remain campaign of negative economic consequences seemed to have little impact on the vote – which the researchers think may be down to people rejecting the advice of experts and trusting ‘ordinary people’. People who reported distrust of experts were four times as likely to vote Leave.



The study found that 6% of leave voters said they regretted their decision - however, this was broadly consistent with the 2015 general election, when 8% of Liberal Democrat voters and 6% of Green voters said they regretted their decision when asked. However, the strength of identity with the Leave campaign dropped slightly after the referendum, but identity with the Remain campaign increased dramatically.



Respondents were more likely to identify themselves as remain or leave supporters than followers of a particular party, which the researchers suggest could have a major effect on the future of British politics.