John Ewing

Special for Football Four

PredictionMachine.com's Director of Research and Analytics, John Ewing, takes a look at what the College Football Playoff could look like through 50,000 simulations of Football Four's most likely four-team playoff. Follow John on Twitter @JohnEwing for more notes from his analysis and to let him know what else you may like to see with these projections.

USA TODAY Sports' Football Four selection committee favors Mississippi State, Florida State, Ole Miss and Baylor. It is hard to argue with that Playoff Projection.

Mississippi State is on a roll. The Bulldogs have won three consecutive games against top 10 opponents and have gone from unranked to No. 1 in the Amway Coaches Poll. There is just enough room left on the bandwagon if you want to jump on.

Florida State is the defending champion, and we will learn a lot about the Seminoles after the team's matchup with Notre Dame Saturday.

Ole Miss has knocked off Alabama and Texas A&M in consecutive weeks. The Egg Bowl vs. Mississippi State looms large as the deciding factor on which team from the Magnolia State crashes the playoff.

Baylor's defense can make you sick (allowed 44 points to TCU), but its offense cures all (scored 61 points against TCU, a team taht was No. 4 in FBS defensive passing efficiency before the game). The Bears' offense is a scary proposition for any defense.

How this works

The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and efficiency-adjusted team and player stats (weighted slightly more toward recent games), to play every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the College Football Playoffs.

Football Four Playoff Summary

As they say in boxing, styles make fights. The College Football Playoff won't be any different. How teams matchup with one another will determine which squads advance.

In the first semifinal featuring No. 1 Mississippi State vs. No. 4 Baylor, the Bears have an offensive edge. Baylor is No. 1 in the country in points (52.7) and yards per game (622.5). Where the Bears really get an advantage over Mississippi State is in the passing game. Baylor averages 371 passing yards per game while the Bulldogs have allowed 308.3 yards (bottom 10 in nation) per game through the air.

Baylor advances 55% of the time by an average score of 40-36.

In the second semifinal pitting No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Ole Miss, the Seminoles are the more balanced team. The reigning champs are top 10 in every offensive and defensive efficiency category. The Rebels are very good throwing the ball and defending the pass. However, Ole Miss is outside the top 20 against the run and rank 65th in offensive rushing efficiency (145.8 yards per game). The better all-around team moves on.

Florida State wins 56% of the time by an average score of 28-25.

After 50,000 simulations the most likely national champion is Baylor. Baylor wins 31.5% of all the simulated tournaments. In the most likely national championship game, Baylor defeats Florida State 53% of the time by an average score of 37-34.

Baylor's greatest strength is passing offense; this is also Florida State's biggest (relative) weakness. In a game we expect to be high scoring, the numbers back the Bears.

Based on the analysis, here is the projected College Football Playoff bracket:

Semifinals

No. 1 Mississippi State vs. No. 4 Baylor | Baylor wins 55% of the time by an average score of 40-36.

No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Ole Miss | Florida State wins 56% of the time by an average score of 28-25.

National Championship

No 2. Florida State vs. No. 4 Baylor | Baylor wins 53% of the time by an average score of 37-34.

The likelihoods for each team to win the championship are 31.5% for Baylor, 26.2% for Florida State, 22.8% for Mississippi State and 19.6% for Ole Miss.