It was billed as the climate change election, and the climate lost.

Despite enduring its hottest year on record and a series of environmental calamities that have brought the climate emergency into sharp relief, Australia has voted for the centre-right Liberal party and its coalition partner, and against taking forceful action on the climate crisis.

The ruling Coalition looks set to be returned to government, albeit possibly with the support of independents, in a remarkable victory given that the Labor opposition has won every opinion poll since mid-2016.

The election was framed by many as a great climate showdown. The Coalition has held power over a tumultuous six years, during which two prime ministers have been toppled and it has suffered from catastrophic infighting, largely over energy policy, as it has has been unable to agree on taking action on the climate crisis or even agree as to its reality.

The Labor party, which proposed introducing a target of reducing emissions by 45% by 2030, said the difference between the parties’ policies on the climate crisis was “night and day, black and white”.

The Coalition has proposed a “climate solutions” fund that pays polluters to lower their emissions. Experts have questioned whether this will achieve Australia’s commitment under the Paris agreement to lower emissions by 28%. The Coalition has also said it would support new coalmines and, just two days before the election was called, pushed through environmental approvals needed to progress the controversial Adani coalmine project near the Great Barrier Reef.

Scott Morrison, a former treasurer, took over as prime minister in 2018 from Malcolm Turnbull, his more moderate predecessor, after Turnbull lost his party’s support trying to push through an energy policy. Turnbull took the prime ministership in 2015 from his Liberal party rival Tony Abbott, who once called climate change “crap” and during the election campaign bet a voter $100 that the climate would not change within 10 years.

Morrison has said he is committed to action on the climate emergency but for many people the moment that encapsulates his view on the issue came in 2017 when he addressed parliament while brandishing a lump of coal, laughing and goading the opposition during a debate about climate change, saying: “Don’t be afraid. Don’t be scared. It won’t hurt you. It’s coal.”

In a poll of 100,000 voters before the vote, the environment was the number one issue for most respondents but over the course of a bruising election campaign the Coalition sought to frame the vote as one on Labor’s economic management.

In his victory speech, Morrison called his party’s election a “miracle” and said his team would work to deliver on the jingoistic promise for voters that Morrison has been making since he fired the starting gun on the election campaign five weeks ago.

“They’re looking for a fair go and they’re having a go and they’re going to get a go from our government,” said Morrison.

The Coalition offered few policy proposals throughout the campaign, save for tax cuts, instead attacking the cost of Labor’s broad suite of policy offerings, which included tax reforms and increased spending on health, education and the environment.

Morrison also framed the election as a popularity contest between himself and the opposition leader, Bill Shorten, a former union leader who has had consistently poor personal approval ratings and has struggled with a public perception he is uncharismatic, uninspiring and unmemorable.

“Clearly on climate action, amongst others, parts of our nation remain deeply divided,” Shorten said in his concession speech. “For the sake of the next generation, Australia must find a way forward on climate change.”

It was thought that the death of Bob Hawke, an enormously popular Labor prime minister, on Thursday, just two days before the election, might provide a bump in the polls for Labor, reminding voters of Labor’s economic track record. But the Hawke effect did not eventuate.

One of the few seats the government lost was that of Tony Abbott, who lost the Sydney seat he has held for 25 years to a high-profile independent, Zali Steggall, a barrister and winter Olympian.

A coalition of grassroots groups disillusioned with Abbott’s views on same-sex marriage, women’s rights and climate change campaigned strongly for his removal.

“I can’t say it doesn’t hurt to lose, but … I’d rather be a loser than a quitter,” Abbott said in his concession speech. He said what mattered more was the “stupendous result” across the country.