The U.S. House of Representatives just released its draft of the NASA Authorization Act of 2020, which would re-organize NASA's human spaceflight program, narrow and delay lunar exploration goals, and prioritize the effort to send humans to Mars by the early 2030s. The legislation stands in contrast to the Trump Administration's current policy of returning astronauts to the lunar surface by 2024 and establishing a broad, sustained lunar presence thereafter.

The bill, H.R. 5666, was introduced late Friday night by the Democratic and Republican leaders of the House's space and science committees. The bipartisan legislation spans over 100 pages and touches on nearly every aspect of the U.S. civil space program. In this analysis, I will focus solely on its directives for human exploration.

HR 5666 presents a dramatically different vision from the White House's current human spaceflight plans, and also stands at odds with its counterpart Senate bill introduced last year. And unlike annual funding bills, legislation of this type is not required to keep NASA open and working. For these reasons, it is unlikely to become law as-is.

But it is significant, nonetheless. And the key to its significance—and to correctly understanding its intentions—is how it considers the role of Mars in defining human spaceflight goals. HR 5666 takes the position that Mars is a near-term (< 20 years) goal and attempts to craft a serious policy framework in support of that effort. By implication, it considers the current lunar return program, Artemis, as primarily a lunar-focused effort that will direct resources away from the Mars goal, and attempts to limit its ambitions accordingly.

If nothing else, the presence of HR 5666 demonstrates the precarious nature of the Artemis program and its 2024 landing goal. Its aggressive timeline has now failed to gain support in both the Republican-led Senate and the Democratic-led House of Representatives. Artemis exists due to executive fiat alone. Absent political consensus, its future is thus highly contingent on a small number of individuals retaining political power.

The NASA Authorization Act of 2020

Authorization bills set policy and recommend—but do not provide—funding for NASA. Unlike appropriations, which must be passed annually, authorizations are not required for federal agencies to continue operating year-to-year. As such, there can be gaps between legislation; the last NASA authorization bill was signed into law in December of 2017.

The Republican-led Senate released a draft of a new NASA authorization late last year. It contained a number of modest provisions, including supportive language for commercial lunar landers, an endorsement of a sustained lunar presence starting in 2028, and support for major human spaceflight programs, including the Orion, the SLS rocket, and an improved upper-stage. Notably, it did not endorse a 2024 landing goal for the Moon.

The House's authorization bill is far more ambitious. Among its provisions for human spaceflight, it would:

Establish a new "Moon to Mars" directorate within NASA, and set a lunar landing goal for 2028 followed by a crewed mission to orbit Mars by 2033.

Designate the Lunar Gateway station as the "Gateway to Mars" to serve as a "testbed for the systems and operational techniques needed to transport crews to, from, and during operations in Mars orbit or on the surface of Mars."

Direct NASA to begin work on a Mars Transport Vehicle to provide "crewed transport to and around Mars."

Require NASA to submit a long-term budget for the Moon-to-Mars effort.

Prioritize crew time and research on the space station to efforts that enable the Moon to Mars goal.

Set a goal of "at least" 2 crewed lunar landings per year after 2028 but prohibit the Moon-to-Mars directorate from funding "non-critical path activities...that do not contribute to the goal of landing humans on Mars in as sustainable manner." It explicitly forbids a continuously-crewed lunar outpost and lunar in-situ resource utilization.

Upgrade the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, including an enhanced Exploration Upper Stage, and require all lunar surface missions to use the SLS as their launch vehicle.

Prohibit NASA entering into public-private partnerships to develop crewed lunar landing services. It functionally mandates that a new lunar lander be developed via traditional "cost-plus" contracting methods currently used for the SLS and Orion crew capsule programs—a move that favors established aerospace contractors like Boeing—and functionally eliminates competition from new commercial entrants like Blue Origin and SpaceX.

Again, this legislation does a lot. But consider it within the framework mentioned earlier: that the Moon should serve as an interim stepping stone in the effort to send humans to Mars. With the notable exception of the obvious, embarrassing industry handouts regarding the SLS and lunar lander, the bill otherwise reflects a serious attempt at policymaking for sending humans to Mars.

Note that I said a serious attempt at policymaking—it's not a realistic one for reasons I will get in to. But let's pause for a minute to consider where HR 5666 came from. While it represents a significant disruption to NASA's current plans for Project Artemis, it is absolutely consistent with extant space policy and is responsive to President Trump's vision for NASA—arguably more so than the plan currently pursued by his own administration.

Is the Moon a Stepping Stone or a Cornerstone?

Theoretically, there is no disagreement on the goals of human spaceflight in the United States. Since 2005, it has been law that "[NASA] shall establish a program to develop a sustained human presence in cis-lunar space or on the Moon…as a stepping-stone to future exploration of Mars and other destinations." In 2017, President Trump signed Space Policy Directive #1, which stated his administration's official policy was to "lead the return of humans to the Moon...followed by human missions to Mars." Congress passed legislation later that year requiring NASA to develop a human spaceflight roadmap that would "begin with low-Earth orbit, then address in greater detail progress beyond low-Earth orbit to cis-lunar space, and then address future missions aimed at human arrival and activities near and then on the surface of Mars." Mars is the clear goal. The rub is in how you get there.