Tax calculator

After a bruising campaign and weeks of voting by mail, today's big tax election may be decided by an onslaught of last-minute voters such as Courtenay Morton and Neil McManaway, two Portlanders who were among a steady stream of voters dropping off ballots Monday at Pioneer Courthouse Square.

Morton, 34, a homemaker, and McManaway, 31, an unemployed architect, voted "yes" on the measures. But opponents of the two tax measures said they are rounding up scads of late "no" votes as well from fence-sitters and procrastinators.

"The election is going to be close enough that those who are still wrestling with a decision and sending in their ballots can have a significant effect," said Pat McCormick, spokesman for Oregonians Against Job-Killing Taxes, the main group opposing Measures 66 and 67.

Tuesday is the last day to vote on whether to increase taxes on higher-income earners and corporations to pay for schools and other state services. Ballots, which have been in the hands of voters for nearly three weeks, must be deposited in one of nearly

. It's too late to mail them to meet Tuesday's 8 p.m. deadline.

So far,

, or about half of Oregon's 2 million registered voters. Tens of thousands more are expected to cast ballots Tuesday as Oregonians continue a trend of voting under the pressure of a deadline.

Secretary of State Kate Brown has predicted statewide turnout of 62 to 64 percent, which would mean another 200,000 votes cast by tonight.

McCormick said he's encouraged by the large turnouts in counties viewed as anti-tax compared with a lower turnout in the Portland tri-county area.

Multnomah County in particular has been lagging behind, which has concerned supporters who are depending on a large "yes" vote in the Portland area to overcome opposition to the tax hikes. Ellen Guiney, spokeswoman for Vote Yes for Oregon, said Portland tends to vote late.

Multnomah "has a whole lot of young voters, and young voters tend to vote late," she said.

Numbers reported by the county appear to back her up. On Monday,

, the most in a single day since the mail voting began Jan. 11.

Both sides said they will continue their full-court press on the phones, scanning voter lists supplied by the state and urging people to get to a drop-off box. Campaign ads will continue running as well on TV and radio.

Other states facing budget shortages will be watching the results closely.

and the

both weighed in with weekend stories about the vote.

"Oregon's vote is seen as possibly a model for other states," said James Moore, political science professor at Pacific University. "Especially since, if it passes, it will be a tax increase that voters actually approved."

Closer to home, the voting has yet again divided the state into competing camps, pitting public employee unions against Oregon's business community. Nike founder Phil Knight weighed in with words and dollars, becoming the biggest single donor to the opposition. Teachers unions contributed millions of dollars to pass the tax increases.

"It's been set up as an either-or, taxes or schools," said Jackson Miller, a Linfield College communications professor who studies Oregon's initiative and referendum system.

To date, supporters have raised about $6.8 million in campaign contributions compared with $4.6 million raised by opponents of the measures.

The two measures would raise an estimated $727 million. That money already has been budgeted for public school spending and other state services. A defeat would require the Legislature to rebalance the 2009-11 state budget when it convenes next week for a short session.

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