The British government and leaders of BP came out fighting for the company's new Russian strategy today, dismissing criticism in the US and saying the tie-up with the Kremlin's oil group was the right way to face the future.

Lord Howell, the foreign minister, used a BP briefing on future energy trends to express the coalition's "great admiration" for the share swap with Rosneft, which he argued would allow it to take advantage of a changing business landscape.

Bob Dudley, chief executive of BP, dismissed US criticism of the deal as "unusual comments", saying he did not expect any wider backlash in the US. "I think most people recognise that a 5% shareholding [by Rosneft in BP] will not change our direction," he said. There had only been limited criticism, with most people "very, very thoughtful". He said there was no question of BP turning its back on the US in favour of Russia: "Our commitment to the US is as strong as ever."

A member of the US Congress has suggested the share swap could threaten national security, and referred to BP as "Bolshoi Petroleum"; damaging comments in a country where BP is still unpopular because of the Gulf of Mexico spill.

The Russian deal, under which BP is taking a 9% stake in Rosneft and plans to explore for oil in the Arctic, has also been attacked by environmentalists.

City analysts have been more supportive, putting out "buy" notes on BP which have pushed up the share price, and describing it as a welcome opportunity for the company to move on from a difficult 2010.

Lord Howell – a minister in the Thatcher era – Dudley and Christof Ruehl, BP's chief economist, turned out to launch Energy Outlook 2030, the firm's latest prediction of energy trends, which also gives them an opportunity to further plug the importance of the $16bn (£10bn) Russian deal announced late last Friday night.

BP's forecast for the next two decades continued to emphasise the role played by fossil fuels, increasingly gas, but also oil and coal.

The company expects carbon emissions to grow by 27% – even though scientists have warned about runaway climate change if carbon dioxide levels are not stabilised. BP believes a growing population, rising energy demand in Asia and other forces will overwhelm attempts by governments to introduce caps on greenhouse gases.

"We are not as optimistic as others about progress in reducing carbon emissions," said Dudley. "But that doesn't mean we oppose such progress. As you probably know, BP has a 15-year record of calling for more action from governments, including the wide application of a carbon price ... for me personally it's a wake-up call, not something any of us would like to see happening."

BP expects oil to be the slowest-growing fuel over the next 20 years but still believes any increases in demand can be met by new supplies from Iraq and Saudi Arabia in particular, without prices "going through the roof".

While coal will decline after a period of boom owing to industrialisation in China the use of gas will continue to increase, according to Ruehl. BP expects the three fossil fuels to converge on market shares of 26%-27% by 2030, while nuclear, hydro and renewable power will each have a market share of 7%.

Wind and solar power and biofuels would account for 18% of the growth in the energy supply over the next 20 years, meaning a per annum increase of over 8% for renewables overall – four times higher than gas.

Still BP sees little basic penetration of the global car market by 2030 of electric vehicles, one of many predictions that are likely to appal environmentalists.

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