UPDATE: Via WaPo, the shutdown is happening:

Breaking news: House lawmakers left the Capitol Friday night without passing a budget agreement, ensuring funding for several key government agencies will lapse at midnight. The partial shutdown comes amid an impasse between President Trump and Democrats over billions in federal funding for a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. This story will be updated. White House officials and congressional leaders were in last-minute discussions Friday in search of a deal that would avert a partial government shutdown set to start at midnight. The Senate narrowly passed a procedural vote in the evening the Republican and Democratic leaders said preserved the possibility of a compromise, though no agreement has yet been reached.

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Well, zero hour is approaching. For most of the day, there was no deal to keep the government open, and it looked like a shutdown was very likely. President Trump was adamant that he’s not budging unless the money for part of his border wall was included in any spending agreement. This is month is his last chance to get anything done on that front, as Democrats takeover the House next Congress. It’s now or never.

The border wall is a key campaign promise. It has to happen. With congressional Republicans’ failure to full repeal Obamacare, which they campaigned on for nearly a decade, the inability to get a wall built could have devastating impacts on the GOP with its base voters. Granted, there were health care market intricacies, tax code issues, and other obstacles that made repealing Obamacare much more complicated. This is a wall. No tax codes, no premium markets, no exchanges, no questions about constitutionality etc., it’s a wall.

There are no side negotiations going on now to avert a government shutdown. So unless something drastically changes, we are cruising toward a government shutdown. — Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) December 21, 2018

President Trump knows the Democrats will filibuster, which is why he wanted Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to nuke the legislative filibuster. McConnell is not going to do that. Guy wrote about that today. For a hot second, it seemed Trump was going to sign the senate’s stopgap measure that included zero money for the border wall and funded the government until February. Luckily, the president changed his mind (via WaPo):

President Trump and Congress were locked in an impasse Friday over Trump’s border wall, hours away from a partial government shutdown and with no apparent path to prevent one. Trump’s preferred solution — a stop-gap spending bill containing $5.7 billion for a Mexico border wall — faced near-certain defeat in the Senate, even after the president pressured Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to change Senate rules to allow it to pass. McConnell refused. “We’re going to be working very hard to get something passed in the Senate,” Trump said Friday in the Oval Office before a bill-signing. “Now it’s up to the Democrats as to whether or not we have a shutdown tonight. I hope we don’t but we’ve very much prepared for a long shutdown.” The $5.7 billion border wall and stopgap spending bill passed the House Thursday night, in a last gasp for Republicans there before they turn their majority over to Democrats in January. […] Trump met with GOP Senators Friday morning, demanding wall money and pushing the nuclear option to get it, but he provided few specifics on what he would sign, according to two people present who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door meeting. The meeting frustrated some in the Senate, as the president’s repeated demands for the wall did not include any way out of a shutdown, these people said. Lawmakers of both parties acknowledge Democrats have the votes to follow through on their vow to block the $5.7 billion in border funding from passing the Senate.

It became a game of who would blink first. Trump said it’s up to the Democrats over whether we have a shutdown, but assured them that he’s ready for the long haul should it happen.

Earlier this evening, Fox News' Chad Pergram reported that there was movement for a spending package that included funding for a border wall. On the procedural vote, which became the longest in Senate history, Jeff Flake voted to advance the House bill. Flake had previously said he would be a "no" vote.

From a senior House Republican source on movement regarding a potential spending package for gov't and wall:

There is a sense of optimism now..I think they are trying to clear it with the White House — Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) December 21, 2018

Flurry of action as the procedural vote now becomes the longest in Senate history. Flake, Jones (a Dem), and Corker all just voted aye. Udall voted no. Vote is now tied. — Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) December 21, 2018

Pence breaks tie to get Senate onto House approved spending bill

Vice President Pence has just broken a 47-47 tie in the Senate on the motion to proceed to the House approved spending bill with the money for the wall. — Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) December 21, 2018

The vote was 48-47 with Pence’s ballot &was the longest vote in Senate history.



Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) voted yes as did Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), which was key.



McConnell:

When an agreement is reached it will receive a vote here on the floor



Senate now formally on the bill — Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) December 21, 2018

Corker says no more votes “until a global agreement is reached” — Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) December 21, 2018

Corker helped broker agreement to get the votes so the Senate could actually call up the House passed bill. Worked with McConnell/Schumer & Pence, Mulvaney & Kushner. The deal is no other votes in the Senate until they have a final deal — Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) December 21, 2018

Some of the many Bills that I am signing in the Oval Office right now. Cancelled my trip on Air Force One to Florida while we wait to see if the Democrats will help us to protect America’s Southern Border! pic.twitter.com/ws6LYhKcKl — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 21, 2018

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LAST NOTE: Via Axios they say a partial shutdown is likely, so false alarm, folks.

NEW: The Senate has determined it will not vote on a short-term spending bill until both chambers of Congress and President Trump can come to a consensus, all but guaranteeing a partial government shutdown tonight at midnight. https://t.co/vgSVAhL3NR — Axios (@axios) December 21, 2018