Dirk Koetter’s status as one of the league’s brightest offensive minds got him hired as the Buccaneers’ head coach in 2016. His inability to build a defense got him fired in 2018.

Koetter’s tenure in Tampa Bay ended before Black Monday could even begin, capping his head coaching career at three seasons and a 19-29 record. His Buccaneers churned out big yardage this year, but ultimately one of the league’s worst scoring defenses and a never-ending supply of quarterback weirdness made Tampa the league’s most talented non-threatening team.

“We sincerely appreciate the hard work and commitment shown by Dirk over the past several years. Working with Dirk has been a pleasure and we wish him and his family all the best in the future.” Buccaneers owner Joel Glazer said in a statement. “Our search for a new head coach will begin immediately and will be conducted by General Manager Jason Licht.”

ESPN’s Adam Schefter was the first to report Koetter’s firing on Sunday.

That leaves the Bucs searching for a new leader who can either glean the most from former No. 1 overall pick Jameis Winston or chart the franchise’s future without him. Koetter was able to get the most efficient season of Winston’s career back in 2017 — and wound up 3-10 in his starts for his trouble. The next man up will have to determine whether he’s been a victim of circumstance, or just an overrated prospect whose NFL ceiling is “league-average starter.”

Tampa Bay management, however, is already committed to Winston as starting quarterback for 2019.

Buccaneers intend to bring back Jameis Winston as their starting QB in 2019, per sources.https://t.co/Z7ywEBLuq2 — Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 30, 2018

3 reasons why the Buccaneers had to fire Koetter

Koetter jumped at the opportunity to take over as Tampa Bay’s head coach in 2016 after spending the previous year as Lovie Smith’s offensive coordinator. The former Boise State and Arizona State head coach wasn’t the most glamorous hire, but it made sense. He had a track record as a steady offensive mind and the Bucs needed to surround Winston with a coaching staff who could develop the former Heisman Trophy winner’s talents.

Koetter’s first season set up some high expectations after the Buccaneers rebounded from a 1-3 start to a 9-7 finish and a spot just outside the 2016 playoffs. That would be the high point of his head coaching career in Florida. Here’s why.

1. His quarterbacks failed to consistently perform under his guidance

Koetter’s flawed rushing offense put a ton of pressure on his quarterbacks to perform, leaving the Buccaneers’ success on the shoulders of Winston and journeyman backup Ryan Fitzpatrick. This occasionally worked well, like when Winston threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns to beat the Giants in 2017 or when Fitzpatrick outdueled Drew Brees to earn an opening week win over the Saints in 2018.

Those offerings were few and far between. Winston had six games with 350+ passing yards under Koetter, but five of them featured at least one interception and four were losses. He’d thrown 42 interceptions in his first 39 games with the head coach. Fitzpatrick had 15 picks in 14 games. Bad decisions were much more common than eye-opening performances when it came to Koetter’s passing offense.

2. The Buccaneers couldn’t compete in a rising NFC South

The deck was stacked against Koetter as his division quickly became one of the league’s most competitive. The 2016 season saw the Falcons rise up and claim the NFC title. The 2017 campaign was the backdrop for Atlanta, Carolina, and New Orleans to all make the playoffs. 2018 is the year the Saints clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Koetter’s divisional record in his last two seasons was 3-9, and it didn’t seem like that would improve much without a significant change.

3. His defense was a nightmare

Tampa Bay’s defensive ranks from 2016 to 2018:

The Buccaneers’ defensive rankings under Dirk Koetter Year Points allowed Yards allowed Year Points allowed Yards allowed 2016 15 23 2017 22 32 2018 30 24

In fact, Koetter’s offense churned out major passing yards because it was trailing throughout the season. A look at the team’s 2018 advanced stats paints a picture of just how bad the Bucs were, only that picture’s been painted with nothing but black ink mixed with the tears of defense-first football purists:

Even a best-case scenario version of Jameis Winston would have trouble carrying that defense into the postseason.

What’s next for the Buccaneers?

The first step for Tampa Bay will be to figure out what to do with Winston, who is due a fully guaranteed $20.9 million salary after the team picked up the fifth-year option of his rookie contract. Retaining the former top pick gives him one more year to prove his worth as a starter, but the Bucs will likely feel some pressure to decide on a contract extension before the 2019 season starts. If the Buccaneers feel they’ve got the right man to unlock his full potential with a dynamic playbook, they may want to lock him down before an impressive fifth-year campaign makes him a highly desirable free agent.

Otherwise, Tampa could decide to cut bait after next season and start looking to develop its quarterback of the future now, though that would be difficult with a shallow crop of passers available in this spring’s draft and a limited supply of free agent QBs (Teddy Bridgewater? Tyrod Taylor? Case Keenum, maybe?) set to hit the market. There’s no easy answer on what to do with the QB depth chart, but that’ll likely be the first question any interested coaching applicant faces at their job interview.

The next step will be adding playmakers to a ribbon-thin defense. A healthy Kwon Alexander will help — he missed nine of the team’s first 15 games this fall — but there are holes across the lineup that need to be patched with a combination of young prospects and veteran contributors. Same goes for the Bucs’ offensive line; Winston’s sack percentage has risen in each of his last three seasons as the starting quarterback.

Who should Tampa Bay target as their next coach?

The Buccaneers have a wide open field when it comes to candidates for their next head coach. They could find a young offensive guru who has helped get the most out of highly touted quarterbacks by targeting Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy or Rams QBs coach Zac Taylor. They could get an older and more experienced offensive mind in former Packers head coach Mike McCarthy.

They could bring Chuck Pagano back to the league in hopes of adding some extra strength to the defense. Or Tampa Bay could make rising star Cowboys DBs coach Kris Richard their guy. There’s no simple answer to the question; the Buccaneers have a ton of moving parts to consider and holes to patch before they decide on their next sideline general.