Operatives from both parties agree the race is Sanford’s to lose. GOP frets Mark Sanford could blow it

Mark Sanford won over primary voters Tuesday night, but national Republicans aren’t celebrating: Many privately concede the former governor could hand a safe Republican seat to Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch.

The affair that sent Sanford’s political career off the rails only begins to describe his baggage.


Fellow GOP pols don’t like him. Neither do female voters. His campaign is largely an exercise in seeking forgiveness for his transgressions four years ago — a defensive crouch that makes it tricky to take the fight to Colbert Busch, the sister of late-night comedian Stephen Colbert.

( Also on POLITICO: S anford wins, to face Colbert Busch next)

Sanford’s liabilities could force outside groups to spend precious resources doing his dirty work — all to salvage a district that Mitt Romney won by 18 points.

The concern among national Republicans that Colbert Busch could steal the 1st Congressional District seat is so real that they’re prepared to do whatever it takes to shepherd the former Republican governor to victory — including dumping cash into the race, sources told POLITICO. But Sanford forces will have a hard time overwhelming Colbert Busch in the competition for dollars: Her brother is going all out to raise cash for his older sister.

“This race is by no means a slam dunk for Republicans,” said one national GOP official. “If anyone says they know how this race is going to play out, they’re kidding themselves.”

( PHOTOS: Mark Sanford’s career)

Operatives from both parties agree the race is Sanford’s to lose. The district is solid Republican territory and Sanford, despite his flaws, is a gifted retail politician who is universally known. While Colbert Busch’s campaign wasted no time Tuesday night calling Sanford untrustworthy and anti-woman, Sanford framed the general election as a clash of ideologies between a small government conservative and a pro-union liberal.

Still, polling already shows him in a neck-and-neck battle and the warning signs for Sanford — who needed two elections to secure the GOP nomination despite running against a field of relative unknowns — can’t be glossed over:

• Not a single member of the South Carolina congressional delegation has endorsed Sanford, an indication of his weak standing among his would-be Washington colleagues. Two House Republicans backed one of Sanford’s GOP primary rivals. GOP leaders are grappling with how to get the delegation on board now that he defeated former Charleston County Councilman Curtis Bostic in the runoff.

( Also on POLITICO: Poll: Sanford, Colbert Busch neck and neck)

Particular attention will be paid to popular Sen. Tim Scott, whose appointment to the Senate triggered the race for his House seat. Scott has stayed out of the race, but national Republicans will want him to endorse Sanford.

In 2009, though, Scott, then a state representative, signed a letter calling on Sanford to resign. The ex-governor opted to serve out his term.

Sanford’s actions “reveal[ed] a pattern of poor decision making and questionable leadership,” read the letter. “Unless major changes are made, South Carolina will find itself perpetually sidetracked by the disarray that you have brought upon our state.”

In a brief interview Tuesday afternoon, Scott would not comment on the race and said he would decide on an endorsement after the GOP nominee was known.

• Sanford’s support among women is in the tank. According to a Public Policy Polling survey released last week, nearly 60 percent of female voters have an unfavorable view of the former governor. Women make up 55 percent of registered voters in the district.

• To repair his battered image, the former governor has spent his campaign on casting himself as a figure of repentance and redemption. That makes criticizing an opponent — which he didn’t have to do in the primary — very hard to do.

The fact that his opponent is a woman further complicates Sanford’s task.

“It’s going to be virtually impossible for Mark Sanford to attack Colbert Busch. It’s extremely tricky political territory for several reasons,” said Hogan Gidley, a former South Carolina Republican Party executive director.

“One, Sanford can’t effectively execute an apology tour and consistently be on the attack. Two, any political attack on Colbert Busch would be used against Sanford and the party as proof of a perceived ‘war on women.’ Three, we have a huge problem right now with the women vote – so any candidate perceived to be one who disregards women is going to face issues getting votes. Sanford could overcome these things, but it will be very difficult in the current political climate.”

That means national GOP groups such as the National Republican Congressional Committee will have to do the dirty work on Sanford’s behalf, Republicans say. Party officials say Sanford’s weaknesses make it incumbent on outside forces to drive up Colbert Busch’s negatives.

That could be a challenge: Colbert Busch has no voting record to pore over and boasts a solid résumé — she’s a senior-level administrator at Clemson University and has long been active in the maritime industry. Plus, with no real competition in the primary, she’s had the luxury of sitting back for months and watching Republicans fight among themselves.

Then there’s the Stephen Colbert factor: The popular comedian has made it clear he’ll do everything he can to help and has already signed on to host two high-dollar fundraising events later this month.

It all adds up to a potentially wild, unpredictable race leading to the May 7 special election.

“The level of concern hinges on a convergence of events,” said another national GOP official. “There’s a flawed Republican candidate, an interesting candidate on the other side, and it’s an unpredictable special election. You’ve got a circumstance where Republicans could lose the seat. I think if you neutralize one of those three factors, we win. If we fail to neutralize one of those factors, there’s a path to defeat.”

But Colbert Busch is still the underdog. She’s waging her first political campaign against someone who spent eight years as governor and six years in Congress, and was once regarded as a legitimate potential future candidate for president.

And Republicans say they’ll have plenty of ammunition to tie Colbert Busch to a national Democratic Party that’s unpopular in conservative South Carolina, promising to highlight donations she has accepted from labor groups.

“Ms. Colbert Busch has already had the unions pitch in. I thought that was surprising, to play that so early. I was real surprised,” said South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Chad Connelly. “I think that was a real hand-tipper.”

Still unclear is whether the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will see it as worthwhile to throw money behind Colbert Busch. Jesse Ferguson, the DCCC deputy executive director, said the committee has not decided how involved it will be. The DCCC has sent a few staffers to the district to assist Colbert Busch.

South Carolina Democratic Party Chairman Dick Harpootlian predicted that outside Democratic groups would enter the fray. The party’s forces, he argued, would be eager to highlight Sanford as the Republican Party is going through soul searching about how to rehabilitate its image with women voters.

“Democrats can say, ‘This is proof the Republican Party has lost its way,’” Harpootlian said. “What they can say is, they picked a guy who is out of step with the rest of the country.”