At this point, there are two guaranteed stages to a Michigan season under Jim Harbaugh:

Massive blowouts of lesser teams Losses to rivals that make you wonder if Harbaugh’s ever going to get over the hump

The latter helped to create 10-win seasons in each of his first two years and got the Wolverines to within a literal inch of the Big Ten title game (and perhaps the College Football Playoff) in 2016.

In 2017, QB issues and youth meant that the blowouts weren’t quite as strong, but they still won five games by 18 or more points though none by more than 25. And thus far in 2018, they’ve re-discovered their sledgehammer, beating three unranked teams (WMU, SMU, and Nebraska) by an average score of 50-11. This past Saturday, they beat Nebraska 56-10 in a game that, considering the halftime score (39-0), could have been even worse.

Unfortunately, before the blowouts, they began the season with a 24-17 loss to Notre Dame. They out-gained the Fighting Irish and outplayed them after halftime but couldn’t overcome an 11-point halftime deficit.

If we count Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State, and Notre Dame as Michigan’s primary rivals, Harbaugh is now 3-7 against them and 27-3 against everybody else in the regular season.

Even two of the wins against rivals only sort of count. One was against a 7-6 Penn State team in 2015, and one was against a 3-9 Michigan State in 2016. Against the good versions of these teams, UM has one win (PSU 2016).

It’s an impressive contrast, and it makes Harbaugh almost impossible to evaluate.

On one hand, Michigan is back up to fifth in S&P+ this week, and if the Wolverines stay around there, it would be their third top-10 finish in four seasons under the khaki-wearing 54-year-old. 2017’s retooling season went worse than expected, but it’s still hard to ask for much more than this, especially at a program that had enjoyed only one S&P+ top-10 finish in the eight seasons since Lloyd Carr’s retirement.

On the other hand, the rivals are looking just fine, too.

Ohio State, second in S&P+, has one of the two or three most talented teams in the country and currently has a projected 68 percent chance of beating Michigan again when the two teams face off in late November.

Penn State is currently sixth in S&P+ (a slight error on Sunday had their rankings reversed, though their ratings were nearly equal). The two teams will take each other on in a virtual coin-toss game (Michigan’s current win probability: 55 percent) on November 3.

After a rough start, Michigan State is back up to 18th in S&P+. The Wolverines will be slight favorites when the in-state rivals play in East Lansing on October 20, but ... well ... they were favored by solid margins in 2015 and 2017. Odds don’t appear to matter all that much to Mark Dantonio.

Harbaugh’s tenure has been defined by rivalry games, and there doesn’t look to be an easy out among this year’s batch.

So we have to wait another month, until the trip to MSU, to figure out what Michigan’s got? Not necessarily.

This week, Michigan will make its first trip to Northwestern since 2014, when the Wolverines logged Brady Hoke’s final win as head coach, 10-9.

Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats are a disappointing 1-2 following an unlikely but humbling loss to Akron. But their disappointments have come mostly on one side of the ball — they’re 96th in Off. S&P+ but still 24th in Def. S&P+. Akron scored 39 points on them, but they needed three return scores to do it. (Like I said, it was an extremely unlikely loss.)

NU isn’t quite as strong against the pass as it has been in years past; in the Wildcats’ two losses, Duke and Akron combined to complete 67 percent with a 176.7 passer rating. Meanwhile, Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson has been as good as advertised since basically halftime of the Notre Dame loss. He’s completed 72 percent of his passes with a 180 passer rating in his last three games.

That, combined with an inconsistent run game, likely means that Northwestern won’t be able to keep up with Michigan for four quarters.

The Wildcats can still shut down the Michigan run game, though. The Wolverines have never had a particularly consistent attack under Harbaugh, ranking between 51st and 79th in rushing success rate in each of his first three seasons. And even this year, despite three straight blowouts, they rank 71st, while NU’s defense ranks 16th.

Michigan is still a run-first team — the Wolverines run the ball 63 percent of the time on standard downs, four percentage points above the national average — so this does offer Northwestern an opportunity to force second-and-9s or third-and-7s. And that plays to the Wildcats’ strength: rushing the passer. Their 10.3 percent sack rate ranks 13th in the country.

If Michigan overcomes this and still puts up plenty of points and yards on Northwestern, that’s a good sign.

Two weeks after the trip to Evanston, Wisconsin comes to town.

The Badgers just survived a trip to Iowa City and are once again the obvious Big Ten West favorites.

Wisconsin’s defense has been inefficient this year. Second-year coordinator Jim Leonhard headed into the season needing to replace much of last year’s secondary, and now the front seven has taken injury hits. The result: a defense that ranks just 82nd in success rate. Opponents are both avoiding third-and-long and converting them when they face them. Despite decent big-play numbers and strong red zone performances, Wisconsin has sunk to 45th in Def. S&P+.

To the extent that the concerns are injury-related, though, the Badgers could be healthier when they come to Ann Arbor.

Meanwhile, their offense will present a pretty significant test. They haven’t finished higher than 25th in Off. S&P+ since Russell Wilson was quarterback in 2011, but they’re currently 12th. Even better, they are third in rush efficiency. The foursome of backs Jonathan Taylor, Taiwan Deal, Garrett Groshek, and Alec Ingold has combined for 250 rushing yards per game.

Quarterback Alex Hornibrook continues to pick his spots well, too — UW is 24th in passing downs efficiency, and on third-and-7 or more, he’s completed 13 of 18 passes for 196 yards, three touchdowns, and no picks.

Michigan’s defense is a different beast than anything else Hornibrook has faced, but while Northwestern will give us some answers about the Wolverines’ offense, Wisconsin should be able to test the UM defense in a way it hasn’t been since the glitchy first half against Notre Dame.

Even with a game against a top-15 team in Wisconsin, S&P+ still gives Michigan a greater than 50 percent chance of winning the next three games and reaching East Lansing at 6-1.

Then, over the next month, come the three rivalry games that will again define the Wolverines’ season.

UM has looked the part for 3.5 games now, but we’ll see if it makes a difference this time.