New England Patriots

FPI's odds to win the Super Bowl: 43%

Seed: No. 1, AFC | Record: 14-2 | Up next: Texans/Raiders/Dolphins

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New England's season has been defined by overcoming absent contributors. First, it went 3-1 in the first four games of the season while Tom Brady was suspended. More recently, the Pats went 8-0 without star tight end Rob Gronkowski in the lineup. The Pats have run the ball more effectively than in years past and got an 18-touchdown season out of LeGarrette Blount, who came within one carry of becoming just the second Patriots back in the Bill Belichick era to finish with 300 rushing attempts in a season.

And yet, one of the reasons the Patriots have done so well in 2016 has been their ability to keep guys on the field. After returning third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett to the roster in December, the Pats finished the year having placed just three players on injured reserve: Gronkowski, fellow tight end Greg Scruggs and linebacker Jonathan Freeny. The rest of the league averaged just over 12 players on injured reserve by the end of the campaign, while the 11 other playoff teams have an average of 9.7 players on IR.

Brady has been able to keep a post-Gronk offense afloat, so the defense might determine how far the Patriots go this postseason. It looks great this season, having finished the year allowing a league-low 250 points, but Matt Patricia's defense isn't as good as it seems. It's a middling 16th in Football Outsiders' DVOA statistic, which accounts for down, distance, game situation and the quality of the opposition on a play-by-play basis. That final condition is important here: The Patriots played the easiest slate of opposing offenses in the NFL this season.

The offense also left New England's defense with the longest average starting field position in football to defend; opposing offenses needed to go 75.1 yards for a touchdown. The difference between the Patriots and a league-average team's field position amounted to 612 yards over the course of the season, which is a decent chunk of change for a team that allowed 5,223 yards this year.