May 27, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Harrison Barnes (40) warms up before game five of the Western Conference Finals of the NBA Playoffs against the Houston Rockets at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Rockets 104-90 to advance to the NBA Finals. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

How Do The Thunder Match Up Against The Warriors? by Tony Loedi

With the Golden State Warriors hoping to agree to extensions with Harrison Barnes and Festus Ezeli before the Oct. 31 deadline, there’s been nothing but speculation as far as what sort of contracts they’d be able to command from the defending champs’ front office. There just haven’t been any concrete numbers to go off of…until now.

According to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports, the Dubs offered Barnes a four-year, $64 million extension, serving as a starting point for negotiations since the offer was turned down by Barnes’ camp.

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With negotiations starting at an average of $16 million per season — already $1 million more per year than I had originally projected for him as his max value — the question needs to be asked: Is Harrison Barnes asking for too much by turning down that type of money?

To spare you the suspense, no.

In a vacuum, a player that averaged 10.1 points and 5.5 rebounds per game last season isn’t worth $64 million-plus over four years. Barnes is effective as a guy who can knock down open corner threes provided by defenses paying too much attention to Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, and he’s a good, versatile defender, but to this point in his career, he hasn’t proven he’s worth that kind of money.

However, NBA contracts are never negotiated in a vacuum, and when the other prevalent factors of this discussion are taken into account, it’d be in the Dubs’ best interest to get Barnes locked down this year before he hits restricted free agency next summer.

There's a sense among some GSW people that Barnes could do more in an expanded role — a role that can't really happen here. — Ethan Strauss (@SherwoodStrauss) September 21, 2015

For one thing, Barnes holds an extra bit of leverage with the Warriors coming off a championship season, even as a player in a secondary 3-and-D role. For another, his defense on Zach Randolph in the second round of the playoffs was a big reason Golden State was able to come back from a 2-1 series deficit (and in such convincing fashion).

At 23 years old, Barnes is nowhere near his ceiling, which would undoubtedly be higher in an expanded role on a different team. But with Andre Iguodala getting older and Barnes clearly possessing two-way potential, the Dubs will have to pay up to keep this young, talented core together and continue grooming a contender from within.

It’s unlikely Barnes would ever be a player putting up 15-20 shots a night with the Warriors, but if he values winning and is okay with his role staying the same, it’s in his best interest to work out an extension before the deadline as well.

But most importantly, it’s worth remembering that the NBA’s salary cap is set to explode by a projected $40 million over the next two summers. What may seem like an overpay now will pale in comparison to the kind of offer Barnes might receive as a restricted free agent next summer.

A four-year extension in the $68 million-$70 million range might be what it takes to get the deal done, which seems like an awful lot for a guy who has been, to this point in his career, little more than an athletic 3-and-D player. But NBA Finals MVP Iguodala isn’t going to last forever and Barnes’ ceiling is much higher than he’s been given credit for.

I’ll tell you one thing: I’d rather give Harrison Barnes $64 million+ over 4 years than give Tristan Thompson $90 million+ over five — Gerald Bourguet (@GeraldBourguet) September 21, 2015

Sometimes to keep a good thing together, overpaying becomes the only option to keep everyone happy. After Draymond Green took a discount this summer with a five-year, $82 million extension, the Warriors might need to overspend on Barnes to keep him around for the long-term and nip this thing in the bud.

Harrison Barnes is definitely taking a chance on himself by turning down that kind of guaranteed money, but there’s no question he could conceivably make a lot more next summer if the two sides can’t agree on an extension over the next few weeks.