During my recent wanderings thru the Longhorn football interwebz, I encountered an interesting discussion regarding the current state of the offensive line. Many are concerned, and rightfully so, about the right tackle position. Coach Herman stated that as of the first week of fall practice, Elijah Rodriguez would start at RT if they were playing tomorrow. Notwithstanding the fact that they are so early in camp, many within the Longhorn community took to the forums to express their concerns. Rodriguez didn’t come in with much fanfare, being a low 3 star ranked guy that was scooped up right b/f signing day in 2014 by Joe Wickline. Rodriguez has demonstrated that multiple coaching staffs recognize his flexibility on the line, as he has played pretty much everywhere. He had some real issues at LT last year when Connor Williams missed a game, but performed better at guard. His play during the spring game where he started at 1st team RG was surprisingly better than last year’s performances. Anyways as forum threads typically go the discussion spiraled into various directions, but one particular path intrigued me. Basically the topic was what is the current state of the offensive line relative to championship football and assuming its not quite there, when does that change. So I went digging to understand what exactly championship offensive line play looks like and how does that compare to what we saw from Texas last year. Guided by the following statistics I built the below chart comparing Texas rankings to the Top 9 final BCS rankings. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaol

The top chart shows the running statistics and the bottom one shows the passing. As you would expect Texas had a 2000 yd rusher and their running numbers are quite good. In fact the stuff rate was truly elite ranking 3rd and the ability to pick up short yardage as demonstrated thru the Power rank was better than most in the top 9. The rest of the rushing stats show Texas to be a top 50 rushing unit and actually comfortably avg within those Top 9 teams. The passing statistics tell a different story, as Texas appears to be worse than any of the Top 9 teams, although Ohio St wasn’t much better. Ohio St offensive line appear to clearly have the best run game stats, so maybe they have some real good maulers that struggle in pass pro. Anyways the most eye opening thing to me is that the top 9 teams in the BCS aren’t exactly playing perfect in the run and passing games. For those that think D’onta Foreman is solely responsible for the Texas rushing stats consider Penn St. Saquon Barkley is an absolute stud, and yet the Penn St rushing stats are easily the worst in the Top 9 and much worse than Texas. So then I wondered beyond the stats, how about tracking the number of All-conference players at the Top 9 schools to identify championship level line play.

As you would expect after seeing the terrible run game stats from Penn St, they are the only team in the top 9 lacking all-conference lineman. From a comparison perspective Texas actually fits in fine. So what exactly is championship line play? It appears its not as clear as I originally assumed, but I think it starts with having 5 guys that all perform reasonably well. If even one player on the line doesn’t do his job or win his individual battle, the result is typically a negative play. Now obviously scheme and helping with pass pro with a RB or TE can help to account for deficiencies, but I would say starting with 5 players that are all at or exceeding average conference level is where you start. And unless your blessed with fortune, most teams need at least 3 more lineman behind them that can go in and be at that average level. Also, it appears the common pattern in the top 9 is to have 2 to 3 players who are in the upper tier of your conference and at least one of them needs to be a first teamer.

So what is the current state of the Texas offensive line. Well we definitely have the first teamer with Connor Williams at the critical LT position. The inner lineman trio of Vahe, Shackleford, and McMillon are not future 1st round picks like Connor, however I do think they can be pretty good college players. McMillon was the 2nd best lineman we had last year, and if continues to develop will be an upper tier guard in the conference. Vahe has the feet and power to be an upper tier guard, but must improve his pass protection and his execution of assignments. Shack was an honorable mention all-conference player last year, but I think some of that came from him being a true freshman and exceeding expectations. I’m not sure if he will be an upper tier center this year, b/c he’s still only a sophomore. So what about RT? This is the position causing the consternation and again rightfully so. The current options are Rodriguez, Nickelson, and Okafor. Of these three only Okafor has the athleticism to project to an upper tier lineman. The issue here is he might not be ready mentally and that could make him an inconsistent piece that flashes excellence mixed with assignment gaffes that get the QB injured. Rodriguez and Nickelson are upperclassman with assignment discipline, but can either of them play at conference average? My projection would be that Texas could have a top 3 in the conference line this year if that happens, and be right at the cusp of championship level line play. In order for that to play out, the health of the lineman must stay in tact and the RT play has to be at around average. There is certainly no guarantee of that happening, if it doesn’t the line will probably mirror last year as long as Connor Williams is still playing LT. Which is to say, they will show some signs of good line play, but the pass protection issues will still plague them.

What does the future project? Next year Connor Williams will be cashing NFL paychecks, and so the search for the new LT will be the talk of the summer. The inside OL should all return and probably be better, especially if Pat Hudson is ready to start. That would mean you’d have an inside pool of Vahe, Shack, McMillon, and Hudson. That means high level depth, something that we haven’t seen in a long time. I would suspect that Denzel Okafor will finally be ready to start and how well he plays will go a long way. Even if he starts, its hard to imagine him jumping into an all-conference 1st teamer his first year starting, unless he wins the job this year and really starts to grow. The LT position is an even scarier proposition. The depth chart has two good prospects in JP Urquidez and Jean Delance, but both of the guys aren’t really ready to play yet and I’m not sure they’ll be ready next year. Texas might need to dip into the JUCO world and find a ready made player to at least perform at that conference average next year. If they were to be at conference avg at both tackles and upper tier at all 3 inside spots, they might end up being a pretty good line. The reality is they must really start stock piling high level prospects, b/c you really need lots of options in order find the right mix and have the necessary depth to sustain a championship run.