SEXUAL ASSAULT SOARS: The Pentagon knew its latest report on sexual assault in the military was very bad news. After years of insisting it was making progress in curbing sexual assault and sexual harassment in the ranks, the department found its numbers showed an alarming 44% increase in assault against women in 2018 compared with 2016.

To try to get ahead of the wave of outrage the report would generate, the Pentagon rolled out a series of memos, videos, and reports on its website intended to show it got the seriousness of the problem, beginning with a memo from Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan in which he wrote, “To put it bluntly, we are not performing to the standards and expectations we have for ourselves or for each other. This is unacceptable.”

THE NUMBERS: There are many ways to look at the data: by gender, or service, or reporting rates, or prosecution rates, but none of the numbers tells a good news story. The 44% increase refers to the number of active-duty female service members who were victims of sexual assault in 2016 (4.3%) and 2018 (6.2%). The rate for men was basically unchanged at 0.7% More than 20,000 service members said they experienced some type of sexual assault, but only a third of them filed a formal report.

The Marine Corps is the service with the highest rate of sexual assault of women, 10.7%, followed by the Navy at 7.5%, the Army at 5.8%, and the Air Force at 4.3%. Sexual assault is most prevalent in the enlisted ranks from E-3 to E-5, with alleged perpetrators often of the same rank, or slightly higher, as their victims.

GILLIBRAND’S FURY: The news was breaking as Gen. James McConville was testifying at his Senate confirmation hearing to be Army chief of staff. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., who has been pushing for reforms in the military justice system for years, was barely able to contain her outrage .

Waving a chart from the Pentagon report, Gillibrand directed her ire at McConville, the Army’s vice chief. “I am tired of excuses. I am tired of statements from commanders that say ‘zero tolerance.’ I am tired of the statement I get over and over from the chain of command. ‘We got this, ma’am, we got this.’ You don't have it, you're failing us," she said.

And Gillibrand made it personal, referring to McConville’s grown children, sitting behind him in uniform, all members of the military like their father. “Will you take this as seriously as you would as if it was your daughter?” she asked pointedly. “Will you take this as seriously as if it was her?”

“Yes, senator,” McConville replied.

McSALLY’S TAKE: Unlike Gillibrand, who wants to give the responsibility for handling sexual assault and harassment complaints to professional prosecutors, Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., who says she was raped while in the Air Force, wants commanders to step up. "I very strongly believe commanders need to keep responsibility and accountability to address this issue,” McSally told reporters yesterday.

“The numbers released today confirm that that the time is now to impart lasting change within the military and that it is more urgent than ever,” McSally said in a statement. “We must not allow women and men to be assaulted while serving our country and we must create an environment that is safe. It’s clear that there is more to do and I won’t rest until we have a bill that combats military sexual assault on the President’s desk.”

MAKING HARASSMENT A CRIME: One of the reforms sought by the Pentagon is to make sexual harassment a stand-alone crime under the Uniform Code of Military Justuce. Unlike rape and assault, harassment is not specifically decribed in the UCMJ, and military prosecutors have to use broader charges, such as conduct unbecoming, that do not capture the severity of the offenses.

The Pentagon is now drafting a proposal to add sexual harassment to the Manual for Courts-Martial.

MARINES ARE THE WORST: As noted, the worst service when it comes to sexual assault is the Marine Corps, with the population most at risk being female Marines 24 years old and younger, serving in the ranks private through corporal.

“The results are disturbing and a clear indicator the Marine Corps must reexamine its sexual assault prevention efforts,” said the Corps in a statement. “The Marine Corps is committed to purging these criminal behaviors from our ranks, taking care of victims, and holding offenders accountable.”

The Marine Corps says it is already implementing new policies to “further educate and empower frontline leaders, young company grade and noncommissioned officers, with the knowledge, training, and tools to swiftly address instances of sexual harassment, gender discrimination, or sexual assault within their units.”

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre ( @jamiejmcintyre ) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance ( @kjtorrance ). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here . If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense .

HAPPENING TODAY: Randall Schriver, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, will brief reporters on the Pentagon’s 2019 Report on Military and Security Developments in China. (Apologies for yesterday, when I mistakenly reported the briefing was Thursday.) The briefing will be live streamed by the Pentagon at 11 a.m. at www.defense.gov .

THE CHINA REPORT: The report itself was released yesterday and describes how China is focused on creating a “world-class” military with the aim of emerging as the preeminent power in the Indo-Pacific region. A few key takeaways:



In 2018, China’s leaders continued to advance an ambitious agenda of military modernization while pursuing economic growth and improving technological strength.

China’s leaders increasingly see the United States as adopting a more confrontational approach in an attempt to contain China’s rise.

Recognizing that programs such as “Made in China 2025” and the “One Belt, One Road Initiative” have sparked concerns about China’s intentions, China’s leaders have softened their rhetoric when promoting these programs without altering the programs’ fundamental strategic goals.

CIVCAS DEBATE CONTINUES: The U.S. military is engaged in a never-ending debate about the toll American military operations in general and airstrikes in particular have taken on innocent civilians caught in war zones.

The Pentagon says its rules of engagement are more protective of civilians than is required by the law of armed conflict, arguing that “while civilian casualties are a tragic and unavoidable part of war, no force in history has been more committed to limiting harm to civilians than the U.S. military.”

Nevertheless, an unclassified version of a congressionally mandated report released yesterday puts the number of civilians the United States killed in 2018 at approximately 120 and the number injured at 65. The report concludes there were no credible reports of civilian casualties from U.S. military operations in Yemen or Libya in 2018.

Independent groups such as Airwars claim the actual number is 10 times higher , at least 1,224, with more than 800 civilians killed in Iraq and Syria alone. The American Civil Liberties Union also claims changes in reporting requirements under the Trump administration have resulted in less transparency.

“The administration failed to comply with Congressionally-mandated reporting requirements in a clear effort to conceal from the American public the true toll of its lethal strikes abroad. These numbers simply are not credible,” said Hina Shamsi, director of the ACLU’s National Security Project. “As the Trump administration doubles down on the secrecy of its killing of civilians abroad, Congress needs to continue exercising its oversight power. The civilian victims, their families, and the American public deserve greater transparency and accountability.”

FAILURE TO OVERRIDE: The Senate yesterday voted to sustain President Trump’s veto of a measure that would have ended U.S. involvement in the Yemen civil war. Republicans mostly stuck with the president, denying Democrats the two-thirds majority needed to override.

The measure to override was authored by Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., who is running for president and believes the U.S. military's involvement is unauthorized by Congress. It had the backing of seven Republicans.

"The bad news today: we were unable today to override Trump’s veto regarding U.S. intervention in this horrific war in Yemen,” Sanders said in a statement. “The good news: for the first time in 45 years, Congress used the War Powers Act to reassert its constitutional responsibility over the use of armed forces.”

HOW MANY HATS?: A new analysis from the Heritage Foundation examines the question: Do U.S. Cyber Command and the NSA need separate commanders or should the current “dual-hat” structure be maintained? The director of the National Security Agency simultaneously serves as the commander of U.S. Cyber Command.

While acknowledging there are compelling arguments for both sides, Heritage researcher James Di Pane comes down on the side of keeping the dual-hat arrangement, which he says fosters a collaborative relationship, faster decision-making, and more efficient resource allocation.

“The dual-hat arrangement leads to faster decision-making because one person is ultimately responsible for both missions,” Di Pane writes. “If there is a conflict between the two organizations, a single boss can make the call quickly on which course to take.” But he says ultimately the decision should be based on what will enhance cybersecurity and protect the close relationship between the NSA and Cyber Command.

ISIS RAMADAN RESURGENCE: The Institute for the Study of War says it expects ISIS to mark the holy month of Ramadan, which begins next week, with more attacks. “ISIS has continued to expand its operations each year around Ramadan despite its setbacks in Iraq and Syria, proving that its loss of core terrain has not significantly disrupted its ability to design and execute global campaigns,” Brandon Wallace with Jennifer Cafarella write in their latest analysis .

They conclude that last month’s deadly Easter Sunday suicide attacks in Sri Lanka foreshadow what will likely be a deadly campaign by ISIS during Ramadan 2019. “ISIS now typically uses the month to conduct major spectacular attacks targeting foreign countries.”

Among the signs ISIS is trying to make a comeback: the rare video statement by leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi released last month.

JUST TO BE DOUBLY CLEAR: The office of Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Fla., took exception to my characterization yesterday that the congressman was “confused about all the statements coming from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.”

In an exchange in Wednesday’s hearing of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, Diaz-Balart was questioning Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan about Turkey’s insistence on taking delivery of Russian S-400 air defenses, which the United States says is incompatible with participation in the F-35 program.

“Do the Turks understand that if in fact they go ahead with these Russian missiles that it is impossible for them to receive the F-35? Has that message been sent clear enough? Is there any possibility that they haven't understood the message?” Diaz-Balart asked.

“He was, in no way, confused by the Turkish statements,” said his press secretary Laura Hernandez in an email. “Rather, he wanted to ensure that the Turks understood that it was either the F-35 or S-400 missiles, not both.”

“There's no confusion on our part” was Shanahan’s response to Diaz-Balart’s question.

The Rundown

Reuters: Pentagon Warns On Risk Of Chinese Submarines In Arctic

South China Morning Post: U.S. Warships Made 92 Trips Through The Taiwan Strait Since 2007

Defense News: South Korea To Build 3 More Aegis Destroyers Able To Thwart Ballistic Missiles

U.S. News: A Photo of a General’s Family Highlights Civil-Military Concerns

Talk Radio News: Pentagon flows troops to US-Mexico border but not the required reports on that deployment to Congress

Washington Post: Iraq is pushing to build an isolation camp for 30,000 Iraqis who lived under ISIS in Syria

Air Force Magazine: JPO Seeks to Slash F-35A Flight-Hour Costs

USNI News: Navy Taking Major Steps To Prevent Future Physiological Events In Jets

Military Times: Retired CENTCOM commander’s lawsuit against privatized housing owners ‘gives validation’ to issue, advocate says

Defense One: Leon Panetta: In the Global Power Era, Remember the Bin Laden Raid

Calendar

FRIDAY | MAY 3

8:30 a.m. 300 First Street S.E. Mitchell Space Breakfast Series discussion on “The Importance of Data in the Space Domain.” Speaker: Maj. Gen. Kimberly Crider, mobilization assistant to the commander, Air Force Space Command. Register at events.r20.constantcontact.com .

11 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room 2E973. Randall Schriver, assistant defense secretary for Indo-Pacific security affairs, briefs reporters on the 2019 annual report “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China.”

12 p.m. 2168 Rayburn. Defense Forum Foundation Congressional Defense and Foreign Policy Forum on "North Korea: What are the Prospects for Regime Change from Within?" Speakers: Kim Seong Min, founder and director of Free North Korea Radio; Park Sang Hak, chairman of Fighters for Free North Korea; Kim Heung-Kwang, founder and director of North Korean Intellectuals Solidarity; Hu Kwang il, head of the Committee for the Democratization of North Korea; Choi Jeung Hun, commander of the North Korea People's Liberation Front; and David Maxwell, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. www.defenseforumfoundation.org

12:30 p.m. Pentagon Briefing Room 2E973. Ellen Lord, under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, and Eric Schmidt, chairman of the Defense Innovation Board, conduct a press briefing on the Defense Innovation Board's final report of the year-long Software Acquisition and Practices.

1 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: “After Doha, What’s Next for Afghan Peace Talks?” Speakers: Jarrett Blanc, senior fellow, Geoeconomics and Strategy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Scott Smith, technical advisor, Afghanistan, USIP; Scott Worden, director, Afghanistan and Central Asia Program, USIP; Belquis Ahmadi, senior program officer, USIP; Lotfullah Najafizada, director, TOLOnews TV; Johnny Walsh, senior expert, Afghanistan, ISIP. Live stream at www.usip.org/events .

WEDNESDAY | MAY 8

9 a.m. 801 Wharf St. S.W. Foundation for Defense of Democracies event “Rising to the Threat: Revitalizing America's Military and Political Power.” Speakers include retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, former national security adviser; Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, U.S. Central Command head; Rep. Mac Thornberry, ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee; and retired Lt. Gen. Ed Cardon, former U.S. Army Cyber Command head. Invitation only.

10 a.m. 310 Cannon. House Homeland Security Committee hearing on "Confronting the Rise of Domestic Terrorism in the Homeland." Witnesses: Assistant FBI Director for Counterterrorism Michael McGarrity; Principal Deputy Homeland Security Undersecretary for Intelligence and Analysis Brian Murphy; and Deputy Assistant Attorney General for National Security Brad Wiegmann. homeland.house.gov

12 p.m. 800 M Street N.W. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Brookings Institution sponsor an invitation-only discussion on Operation Tidal Wave II and its role in the destruction of the Islamic State’s finances. Speakers: Retired Gen. John Allen, president of the Brookings Institution; David Asher, former State Department official and FDD senior fellow; and retired Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland, former commander of the coalition against ISIS in Syria and Iraq. Moderated by Nancy Youssef, national security correspondent at the Wall Street Journal.

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing on "FY2020 Priorities for Missile Defense and Missile Defeat Programs." Witnesses: Robert Behler, operational test and evaluation director in the Office of the Defense Secretary; James Anderson, assistant Defense secretary for strategy, plans and capabilities; Air Force Gen. Terrence O'Shaughnessy, commander of U.S. Northern Command; Air Force Lt. General Samuel Greaves, director of the Missile Defense Agency; and Navy Vice Adm. David Kriete, deputy commander of U.S. Strategic Command. www.armedservices.house.gov

2 p.m. 2154 Rayburn. House Oversight and Reform National Security Subcommittee hearing on "Veteran and Active-Duty Military Suicides." oversight.house.gov