From the sensationalist headlines throwing out theories that neither Hartford residents nor our police are buying, to the ever-present discussion in campaign season, the homicide rate this year is getting attention. That number does not include deaths that have not been classified yet, like the incident from early Saturday morning on Bond Street that involved a person dying after being struck by a vehicle driven by someone who did not care to stick around. (That vehicle is described as a gray or silver, two-door Infiniti sedan with dark tints. No description of the motorist has been provided).

The homicide rate for 2015 is high, but taking the longer view, one can see that these rates fluctuate. The following data, provided by the Hartford Police Department, shows how the rate ebbs and flows.

Part 1 Crime Historical Analysis Spread Sheet

Total number of homicides in 2011: 28. Every year since, there has been a gradual decline, until this year.

Everyone has her theories about what is causing this and what would solve violence. The declining police force has been called into question by some residents and by a Staffing and Deployment Analysis conducted for the HPD.

“In order to properly meet the current staffing level,” the report states, “the department should be staffed at 479 officers, but that will not address the unfilled staffing levels that are important to maintain a heightened level of police response.”

The so-called “balanced budget” puts the force at around 410. There are approximately 75 police eligible to retire in the coming year.

Neighborhood groups have expressed concern over this, to receive this message in response:

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One day after Mayor Segarra told two NRZ Committees that “there is no cause for concern,” he sent a letter to Governor Malloy asking for help, calling this a regional issue. On Monday, the mayor met with Governor Malloy, Chief Rovella, and others to see what could be done. The outcome from that meeting: Hartford gets three State detectives and a supervisor who would be working with the Shooting Task Force, along with some other resources.

Is this enough? Is this a bandage? Is this something that could not have been done months ago?

Segarra later announced that HPD would seek to hire 150 more officers. That is not for this year, but spread over three-to-five years.

Not everyone believes that inflating the police force is the answer, but even cynics have strong opinions about how taxpayer funded law enforcement should work.

The report says that a “complete staffing patrol plan would require an additional 48 department members. If HPD desired to fill the complete staffing patrol plan, it would require an additional 108 members to what is currently assigned to patrol. We acknowledge that a portion of the unfilled positions will not be filled again; for example, the majority of the walking beats. However, we recommend adding 60 – 80 officers to the patrol division to reach effective staffing levels.”

Residents routinely ask for police to walk or bike the streets in Hartford, but without the recommended staffing, most of the walking beats will not be operational.

The report continues: “HPD police officers are, on average, on non-discretionary assignments 70% of the time, which is significantly more than the recommended 33% standard. Essentially, officers have very limited time available to perform discretionary duties necessary to police the City of Hartford. Therefore, it is the opinion of DLG consultants, using the available data and the known variables, that a significant increase in patrol staffing is clearly warranted and recommended.”

Those recommendations were made in March, when there had been two homicides, year-to-date.

With the city divided into three major sections and 30 patrol areas, the needs vary. Most calls for service in 2014 came from the South district, with 94,979. The South district includes the Barry Square, Behind the Rocks, Frog Hollow, Parkville, Sheldon/Charter Oak, South End, South Green, South Meadows, and South West neighborhoods. In the same year, the Central district (Downtown, Asylum Hill, West End), had 66,985 calls for service; the North district (Blue Hills, Clay Arsenal, North East, North Meadows, and Upper Albany) had 77,646.

The wait for service? That’s not imagined. The average response time in 2012 was 6 to 7.5 minutes for a “Code A”, a “Code B” response was from 27.8 to 36.4 minutes, and a “Code C” response was from 46.6 to 56.6 minutes. There were some improvements in response time by 2014: “Code A” response was from 5.7 to 7 minutes, a “Code B” response was from 28.4 to 31.8 minutes, and a “Code C” response is from 42.6 to 51.4 minutes.

As we know, sometimes the police are never called. With the institution of ShotSpotter in many neighborhoods, residents have expected that technology would alert police of gunshots, making it seem unnecessary for individuals to place calls. As it turns out, that system gives false reports frequently, and at other times, never conveys that shots have been fired.

To get more insight into what was recommended to the Hartford Police Department before the homicide number hit 19 for 2015, so far, read the full Staffing and Deployment Analysis:

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