Enrollment at the University of Missouri is expected to decline by 2,600 students in the fall, aggravating a bad budget situation and making it likely the pain will extend for several years as the shrunken fall freshman class filters through to graduation.

Vice Chancellor of Finance Rhonda Gibler, in an interview ahead of a campus budget forum Wednesday, said campus divisions have been told to plan for 2 percent cuts to general fund budgets for fiscal years 2018 and 2019 in addition to 5 percent cuts ordered for the year that begins July 1.

�We won�t know for some time if 2 percent is a solid number,� Gibler said. �It is probably not; it will probably be something different from 2 percent.�

The decline in tuition revenue is now estimated to be $36.3 million, up from about $20 million. The total shortfall is more than $46 million, up from $32 million when interim Chancellor Hank Foley ordered the 5 percent cut in February.

The shortfall will be mitigated by new state funding of about $9 million, Gibler said. There is also a proposal going to the Board of Curators to increase tuition for out-of-state and professional students, raising about $5 million, she said.

The campus operations budget for the current year is $1.2 billion, with about $305 million from tuition.

Gibler, Foley and Provost Garnett Stokes were expected to lead a forum on the budget beginning at 1 p.m. in the Jesse Wrench Auditorium of the Memorial Union. A second forum will be held at 8 a.m. Friday in the Mark Twain Ballroom of the Memorial Union.

In February, Foley instituted a hiring freeze, tempered by allowances for needed personnel, and a freeze on salaries and wages. Foley�s directive was based on a $32 million shortfall from unavoidable new expenses and a decline in enrollment of about 1,500 students, including 900 first-time freshmen. It was intended to save $20 million, with the balance to come from reserves and cuts in later years if needed.

The latest enrollment figures point to a decline of 1,400 first-time freshmen, to about 4,800, and 1,200 other students, Gibler said. For every 100 fewer Missouri undergraduate students who are on campus, the university loses $1 million in tuition revenue. That rises to $2.5 million for 100 fewer undergraduates from outside the state.

The mix of incoming students will change in the fall, Gibler said. The campus has drawn about 60 percent from the state and 40 percent from outside in recent years, she said. Projections for the fall anticipate that about 67 percent of the new students will be in-state students, she said.

Past trends show that the year after a freshman class arrives, it loses members who leave school or fall behind, a trend that slows but continues in the third year. The trend for the senior class is for it to grow as students transfer, catch up or remain on campus for a fifth year.

The reduced incoming freshman class is likely to be the new normal condition for the campus, Gibler said.

�We will have several years in a row we have to do some reduction in our budget,� Gibler said. �It is impossible to predict how much we will rebound in the next fall. We can�t take this as a small bump in the road and that we will be back to business as usual.�

At commencement this week, 5,606 students will receive 6,229 degrees. That will be the largest graduating class for many years, said Neil Olson, dean of the College of Veterinary Medicine.

�It will be substantially more than we will graduate four years from now and next year,� Olson said.

At an MU Council of Deans meeting Friday, Gibler laid out the budget difficulties, Olson said. The deficit in the incoming freshman class is just a part of the problem for next year, he said, but it will set the trend.

�It is not just a one-time hit,� Olson said. �It is a recurring hit for the deficit you get in one year, unless you magically get 1,500 more sophomores, and that is just not going to happen.�