“It’s a real opportunity for” Buttigieg, Link concluded.

In January, Buttigieg crisscrossed the largely rural counties western Iowa, stopping in Harlan, Algona, Arnolds Park, drawing hundred-person crowds. In contrast, Amy Klobuchar and Bernie Sanders reserved their stops to the biggest cities, like Council Bluffs and Sioux City, though Klobuchar did notch a visit to each of Iowa’s 99 counties by late December. Warren, meanwhile, has spent little time in western Iowa in recent months.

In terms of total visits to rural Iowa, the closest challenger to Buttigieg is Andrew Yang, who is also trying to drive up his support in these less-frequented corners of the state.

There’s another benefit to heavy campaigning in Obama-Trump country: Driving a narrative outside the overall caucus results about competing against Trump in 2020, said J.D. Scholten, a Democratic congressional candidate who nearly beat Rep. Steve King in 2018 in a heavily pro-Trump district and is running again in 2020.

"If you look at the pivot counties, which flipped from Obama to Trump, they've had a lot of emphasis in those areas, showing up and organizing there, so that no matter where they end up on caucus night, they can point to their success in these pivot counties, rural counties, and say, 'We've got to win in those places,'” said Scholten.

As Scholten restarts his campaigning for this election cycle, he noted Buttigieg’s recent crowds in Carroll and Chickasaw counties. “I’d kill for half that number of people to show up,” Scholten said.