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David Coletto, CEO of the polling firm Abacus Data, believes that the Liberals’ 2015 sweep was essentially a vote for change. “Trudeau projected hope and change. There is nothing quite binding the non-conservative vote this time,” he says.

Strategists are calling this the “splintering” of the progressive vote, attributed in part to growing awareness and interest in climate issues (and the subsequent association of the Green Party with that cause) and to some extent, a broader dissatisfaction with Justin Trudeau’s projection as a champion of liberal causes versus his execution of them.

If you’re a progressive voter, you have three options

“This election is a cloud of gas. It really lacks definition. Most of the emotion in this campaign is on the right and it is because of their disenchantment with Trudeau. The left is still a bit confused,” said Darrell Bricker, chief executive of polling firm Ipsos Public Affairs.

“If you’re a progressive voter, you have three options: the Liberals, the NDP and the Green Party. If you’re a progressive voter and you’re disappointed with the Liberals, you will consider the Greens or the NDP. If you find the NDP wanting, that makes the Greens look interesting, so it essentially all starts with dissatisfaction of the incumbent.”

Is the Green Party eating into the New Democratic base?

Coletto says his own numbers display a more nuanced story about the battle for the left, specifically between the NDP and the Green Party. “What’s important to note is that the Greens are actually pulling far more votes from the Liberal Party than from the NDP,” he said.