The direct line must have rang. Just as expected, and right on cue.

Initial Jobless Claims - Claims Edge Down From Higher Levels; Lowering Payroll Forecast to +200k from +275k

Actual: 439,000

Previous: 445,000

Consensus: 440,000

Released: Thursday, April 01, 2010 at 08:30 (New York time)



Claims Edge Down From Higher Levels; Lowering Payroll Forecast to +200k from +275k

BOTTOM LINE: Initial and continuing claims both decline modestly from upward-revised bases. The total number of claimants receiving benefits - including those on extended programs - rises about 240,000 in week ended Mar 13. Consistent with the analysis presented in last night's daily comment, we are lowering our estimate for March nonfarm payrolls to +200k from +275k.



KEY NUMBERS:

Initial claims -6k to 439k in week ended Mar 27 vs. median forecast 440k.

Continuing claims -6k to 4.662 million in week ended Mar 20 vs. median forecast 4.618 million.



MAIN POINTS:

1. Initial claims for the week ending Mar 27 were in line with expectations, falling 6,000 from a base that was revised up slightly. Continuing claims for regular programs followed a similar pattern, falling 6k - also from an upward revised base - in the week ended Mar 20.



2. However, as noted in last night's daily comment, the key outstanding issue for tomorrow's report on payrolls in March is the total number of people receiving benefits during the survey week (week ending Mar 13). That figure rose 238,000 to a level roughly equal to the figure reported for the Feb 13 week. Based on these results, we are lowering our estimate for March nonfarm payrolls to +200k from +275k. The underlying assumptions are +25k in underlying net hiring (vs. +50k previously), +100k for a weather rebound (unchanged), and +75k for temporary Census hires (vs. +125k previously).