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Our data tell a slightly different story, however, and it is one that is most worrying for the Prime Minister.

We conducted an analysis that considers the impact of five factors on Conservative vote choice. The first three factors are standard demographic ones: age, gender, and province. The other two factors are respondents’ evaluations of the responsibility of the Prime Minister for the Duffy scandal and whether respondents voted for the Conservatives in 2011. By considering all of these variables at the same time, we can estimate the marginal effects of each, independent of other variables, especially whether voters have voted Tory in the last election.

The results do not bode well for the Conservative Party. Indeed, they show that past Conservative voters are the harshest punishers of the Prime Minister if they believe he is responsible for the scandal.

Among those who voted for the Tories in 2011, the effect is stark. The average Tory voter from 2011 gives the Prime Minister a responsibility score of 5 points (on our 0–10 scale). If that assessment increases by just one point, their probability of voting Tory declines by 10 percentage points.

Now, let’s consider a respondent who told us they voted for a party other than the Tories in 2011. If such a respondent feels the Prime Minister bears no responsibility for the Duffy scandal, their probability of voting Tory in this election is 11 per cent. (The Tories, remember, do not have a lot of second choice support in the electorate.) If they believe that Prime Minister is completely responsible, their probability of voting Tory falls to 2%. The Tories do not rely much on these voters, but the effect is still devastating at the margin.

Attributions of responsibility may not be likely to change much over the remainder of the campaign; indeed, I suspect the Prime Minister is very pleased the Duffy trial has adjourned. But if those assessments do change, there are even stormier waters ahead for the Tories.

Peter Loewen is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto.