UPDATE: This is a series of predictions based on 538 aggregate polling data (dark colors) and my own predictions based on the random firing of neurons in my brain that you should in no way trust (light colors). I'll be periodically updating this throughout the election, and will add a general election map when we know who our nominees will be.SO here's my rough prediction of the nomination:Donald Trump makes fools of us all and forces Ted Cruz from the race after a do or die victory in Indiana. John Kasich suspended his campaign the following day, leaving Donald Trump the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party by the convention in Cleveland. The Republican leadership is in general panic after Trump's victory over Cruz and Kasich; the Never Trump movement begins seriously looking for convention challengers and third party candidates to support, some Republican leaders (more concerned about a President Clinton than a President Trump) endorse the GOP frontrunner, and some begin looking for the door on the party. Down-ballot candidates immediately begin preparing for the worst while the RNC scrambles to find any loopholes in the rules that will disqualify Trump or enable a floor vote at the convention. Despite having 41% of the popular vote, Donald Trump reaches Cleveland with a majority of Delegates, winning the first ballot, and the Republican nomination as the most unpopular nominee in the party's history. Trump, however, will not be the only candidate from a conservative party come November.Bernie Sanders continues to do better in states that have an electorate that is majority white and male, gaining incremental victories in the norhwest and midwest, but is unable to sway voters in the South and Southwest where African Americans and Hispanics make up a larger percentage of the vote. After the March 15 primaries, his successes are never enough to make him a real threat to Clinton, but keep the interest up enough for him to reach the Democratic Convention. At Philadelphia, Sanders makes a passionate plea for Democrats to remember their liberal roots, but calls on his supporters to stand behind the party's nominee in the face of the possibly of a Trump presidency. Rumors of a Clinton/Sanders ticket flutter, but never pick up steam, and are put to rest when Hillary Clinton thanks Bernie Sanders and his supporters for a well fought campaign and immediately begins talking about healing the divide in the country by appealing to moderate Republicans disgusted with the GOP nominee. Clinton states in no uncertain terms that she intends to run to the center in the general.To see the state-by-state breakdown: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/e… 3/8/16 EDIT: Well, We're all dining on crow today after the pollsters blew it in Michigan. Apparently in that state, polling is legally required to be conducted over landlines. Kinda the other end of the spectrum for internet polls.3/22/16 EDIT: I honestly don't know how this thing is gonna turn out. These predictions are largely based on 538 and gut instinct to fill in the gaps, but at this point the Republican party's rules are so screwy that I have no idea what the delegate count will really look like.3/27/16 EDIT: No real changes, but the odds of a contested Republican convention are looking better everyday. Though I may have to switch Cruz and Kasich around given the number of Republicans who are now endorsing the lesser of two evils.4/1/16 EDIT: CNN is saying Cruz is gonna win Washington and Oregon, and 538 has Cruz ahead in California and Wisconsin. Seems Trump's momentum has FINALLY stalled (possibly due to his comments on women as of late).4/28/16 EDIT: Looks like it may all come down to Indiana. If Cruz can stop Trump there, its going to be very difficult for him to make up the difference in California. 538's own estimates have Cruz up by a razor thin margin, so don't hold your breath. Also, there is the possibility that Cruz's announcement of Fiorina as his running mate is him signalling that he's planning a third party run in the event that Donald Trump manages to win the nomination.5/3/16 EDIT: *Flips over table* Fuck it. I give up. Ted Cruz, the petulant little shit, could have staged a coup at the convention, but as of right, now, barring the Republican establishment locking the doors and saying, "Fuck it," Trump is the nominee. The Republican party as we know it is dead, and they dug their own grave.5/4/16 EDIT: What the actual fuck is happening? Donald Trump is now running UNCONTESTED into the last few primaries.