The poll numbers represent a 2 per cent swing to Labor since the 2016 federal election, when David Feeney ran a clumsy campaign that relied on Liberal preferences to scrape home with a 1 per cent margin. Mr Feeney’s recent resignation from federal politics forced the byelection, which will be held on March 17. In a captain’s pick by opposition leader Bill Shorten, Labor has drafted in ex-ACTU president Ms Kearney, who had been preselected for the state seat of Brunswick. Her opponent Ms Bhathal, a social worker, has run for the Greens in the northern suburbs federal seat five times.

Greens candidate for Batman Alex Bhathal, flanked by leader Richard DiNatale and Melboune MP, Adam Bandt. Credit:Darrian Traynor The Australian Electoral Commission announced a confirmed field of 10 candidates on Friday. The landline phone poll of 693 voters was conducted by market research company Lonergan Research on Monday and Tuesday nights this week. It found the Liberal Party’s choice not to field a candidate had given the Greens a 1 per cent lift, but less than it needed to get over the line. “Although many consider the Greens to be the front-runners for this byelection, we believe the ALP hold the lead at this stage of the race,” pollster Chris Lonergan said.

“This may be due to differences in the popularity of the Labor candidates, or it may be due to the focus on broader, national issues.” The Greens’ campaign has centred on Adani’s massive proposed coal mine in north Queensland. The party has exploited Labor’s ambivalence towards the project. The Greens say the project will damage the Great Barrier Reef and release billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide. Labor leaders have not opposed the project, although Mr Shorten said on Friday he did not believe it would proceed.

The poll found Batman voters were much more likely to vote for a party that opposed the Adani mine: 76 per cent said they would be less likely to vote for a party that supported it, while 24 per cent said they would be more likely. There was also justifiable confusion about Labor’s position. Forty-four per cent said they believed Labor supported the proposed mine, 28 per cent believed they opposed it and 27 per cent didn't know. Mr Lonergan said it was important for Labor’s chances that it clarified its position on the proposed mine. “If voters believe the ALP will oppose the Adani mine, the ALP has a very good chance of winning this seat,” he said.

“If voters remain unsure as to where the ALP stands, I would expect the Greens to continue to press their advantage in what is clearly a very important issue to voters.” Labor strategists in Victoria are not optimistic about holding on to Batman following the party’s recent rout in Northcote, which sits entirely within Batman's electoral boundary. But they believe the seat is winnable if the Northcote result is replicated in the gentrified southern half of the seat, and there is no swing to the Greens north of Bell Street. Labor lost Northcote with an 11.6 per cent swing to the Greens from the 2014 state result, but still performed better there than it did in the 2016 federal election. Analysis for Inside Story by former Age economics editor Tim Colebatch shows 5.3 per cent of voters swung back to Labor at November’s state byelection.

On Friday it reheated its 2016 promise to extend tram route 11 north from Preston into Reservoir, which held firm as Labor heartland at the last federal election, but where the Greens have been doorknocking to garner support in recent days. The poll suggests the votes of those who dislike Labor and the Greens will be influential once again: 16 per cent said they would vote for another party, two-thirds of whom said they would preference Labor ahead of the Greens. South Australian senator Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives party will run in a bid to claim to right-leaning vote and has preselected David Bailey, a former SAS soldier. The poll provided few insights into the voting intentions of younger people, as respondents skewed heavily towards people aged 35 and older. It also included significantly more women than men.

Its margin of error was 3.7 per cent.