Administration, Hill, and industry sources do the math on what could be the summer’s most contentious confirmation battle.

Last week, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd aroused the ire of progressive activists when he wondered whether Elizabeth Warren, the former Harvard Law professor who is a leading candidate to head the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, would be “confirmable.” “There’s a serious question about it,” he said on NPR’s “Diane Rehm Show.”

Dodd’s concern is legitimate given that a mere 41 votes can block action in the Senate, and that the GOP has been willing to filibuster even seemingly popular proposals. But, after surveying a dozen insiders over the last few days—congressional aides, industry officials, progressive activists, and a few administration officials—I’ve concluded that the odds are good that Warren would be confirmed if nominated by the White House. (The White House itself agrees—it is "confident she is confirmable," according to a spokeperson.)

Most telling is the basic Senate math. According to two senior Senate aides—one whose boss favors Warren and the other whose boss would prefer an alternative—pretty much every Senate Democrat (and Independent) would find it agonizingly difficult to join a filibuster of Warren’s nomination, which would mean opposing an outspoken consumer advocate at a time of deep anti-Wall Street sentiment. Simply put: Hoping the president will choose another candidate—something that describes several Senate Democrats—isn’t the same as opposing his eventual nominee.

The biggest possible exception to this is Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson, who hasn’t been shy about bucking Democrats on other priorities, like extending unemployment benefits. Nelson returned from the Fourth of July recess anxious about the size of the new agency’s budget and its accountability to Congress. (Though spokesman Jake Thompson says the senator’s concerns have largely been defused, and that he hasn’t taken a position on any potential nominee.) He later fretted that it could become a “rogue agency” under the wrong leadership.

So suppose the entire Democratic caucus were to support Warren except Nelson and another moderate, leaving her two votes shy of the 60 she needs. There are four realistic places to find the additional votes: Republicans Scott Brown of Massachusetts, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine, and Chuck Grassley of Iowa. The first three voted for the final version of financial reform; Grassley supported the Senate version in May.