As if the June 2016 referendum and this year's snap election hadn't produced enough tremors in Britain, Bill Emmott welcomes another "political earth shake," suggesting it's time to form a new party, taking advantage on the "division, disarray, and distrust in the established parties." He points out how "neophytes" like Macron, Trump etc. had successfully wooed disaffected voters who reject mainstream parties.

The author is urging young Britons to follow Emmanuel Macron's example, by capitalising on the polarisation and fragmentation of the political landscape to change the country's course, instead of adopting the wait-and-see approach of mainstream parties. Within Labour, those who don't support Jeremy Corbyn's "left-wing economic and foreign-policy stance" are waiting patiently for the right moment to "recapture their party." Many Tories, "who think Brexit is leading the country to disaster" are doing the same.

The victory of Macron's centrist party in the May and June elections reminds the author of Britain under the hugely unpopular Margaret Thatcher in the early 1980s. The Labour Party was deeply divided and couldn't capitalise on the malaise. It plunged into the wilderness, chosing Michael Foot as leader, who pledged to unilateralism - leaving Nato and the European Community. The party split in 1981, with four members - "alarmed by its leftward shift and anti-EU stance" - defecting and forming their Social Democratic Party. The SDP – "in alliance with the small Liberal Party" – soared to an astounding 50% in the polls in 1982.

The sharp turn of the Labour party to the left in the early 1980s was a response to Margaret Thatcher's economic policies - austerity measures that led to deep recession and soaring unemployment. The victory over Argentina in the 1982 Falklands War revived Thatcher's fortunes. The Tories "ended up winning the 1983 election in a landslide," and the SDP "won 25% of the national vote... But they ended up with a mere 23 seats. It was all downhill from there." Labour didn't fare better - it was out of power for 18 years.

The author says the situation is different today and still can offer an "opportunity for newcomers," despite Britain’s "first-past-the-post electoral system, based on single-member constituencies," from which established political parties benefit more than fledgling parties.

Momentarily neither Labour nor Tories can win big as shown in the recent election. Theresa May failed to win a landslide as anticipated and the Labour's gain had much young voters to thank for who reject a hard Brexit. Does this suggest "that British voters are up for grabs" as the author believes? He thinks "Europe and Brexit is not the issue that British voters care about most today."

He says, Corbyn "ran on the same Brexit policy as May." Yet "on issues like jobs, hospitals, schools, and the welfare state, their approaches contrasted sharply." The Labour party under Corbyn is seen as a reprise of Michael Foot's in the early 1980s. In 1977 Reginald Ernest Prentice left James Callaghan's cabinet and joined the Conservatives because of the party's "Marxist dogma."

The author says "to defeat the establishment parties, therefore, a new political movement would have to stand, first and foremost, for restoring public services, reviving the economy, and rebuilding trust. A strong relationship with the EU should be pitched as a means to advance these goals, not as a goal in itself."

It remains to be seen whether "such a movement" will be created in the coming months, when the opportunity arises. The author is watching closely "whether leadership ambitions and divisions over Brexit consume the Conservative Party and...whether the recent rebellion of more than 50 senior Labour members over Corbyn’s Brexit policy escalates."

Indeed, in hindsight one could question what would have become of the SDP had Britain not fought and won the Falklands war. Nevertheless the author says the motto of the British special forces: “Who Dares Wins” is still a good guideline for anyone with courage.

