Members of Congress will have a lot on their plate when they return from summer recess early next month ― but for some, one of their biggest concerns may be holding on to their jobs come November.

Statistically speaking, many of those members will get to keep their seats: 90 percent of incumbents were re-elected in 2012, even after hitting an all-time approval rating low of 10 percent that year. However, the 2014 midterm elections have already seen some surprising upsets (former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s primary defeat by challenger David Brat, much to the dismay of the beneficiaries of his leadership PAC) as well as some notable withdrawals (a plagiarism scandal led Montana Sen. John Walsh (D) to drop his re-election bid, much to the dismay of his big-name funders).

Do these developments mean that every House and Senate race this fall will be a gripping, dramatic fight to the death?

Well, probably not. But many of them are pretty hot, from our vantage point.

OpenSecrets.org’s Hot Races 2014 database tracks the contests that the Center for Responsive Politics thinks are the most interesting, from a campaign finance perspective. Voters in 44 of the 50 states will be deciding the winner of a Hot Race ― but how do we decide what’s hot and what’s not?

We apply the “Hot” label when a faceoff meets at least one of six criteria:

More than $1 million dollars in outside spending overall

More than $100,000 in outside spending in the previous week

The challenger is outraising the incumbent

More than $250,000 has been contributed by the candidate and/or leadership PACs

More than 50 percent of the total raised comes from out-of-state

At least one of the candidates is female (women still only hold 18.5 percent of all 535 seats in Congress).

As of August 20, 2014, some states (like California and Florida) have multiple hot races. Some, like Texas, have only one. But every state’s elections are likely to heat up as November draws closer, and the money really begins flowing in.

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Speaking of money, though, remember what we said about outside spending in these races? That refers to TV ads and other expenditures made by groups and individuals not affiliated with the candidate’s campaign. To date, outside groups like super PACS and political nonprofits have spent nearly four times as much as they did over the course of the last midterm election in 2010. The 2012 election shattered outside spending records, but the 2014 elections stand to shatter even more ― and races that haven’t previously seen much cutthroat campaigning may be in for a surprise from the outside.

Which brings us to this week’s Politiquizz question:

Which hot race — House or Senate — has seen the greatest amount of outside spending?

The first person to submit the correct answer to [email protected] will win a free OpenSecrets.org bumper sticker. The answer can be found somewhere on our website.

In our last Politiquizz, we asked:

Of the eight members of the House of Representatives already on the ballot for the U.S. Senate in November, which candidate has raised the most money?

Congratulations to Darren from West Islip, New York, who was the first to submit the correct answer:

Rep. Bill Cassidy.



For permission to reprint for commercial uses, such as textbooks, contact the Center: Feel free to distribute or cite this material, but please credit the Center for Responsive Politics.For permission to reprint for commercial uses, such as textbooks, contact the Center: [email protected]





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