Hillary Clinton has a monstrous 40-point advantage among the state’s non-white voters, 67 percent to 27 percent. | AP Photo Poll: Trump, Clinton virtually tied in Arizona

Two weeks out from Election Day and Arizona is a toss-up, according to a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday afternoon.

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are deadlocked in Arizona, a state that has gone red in 15 of the last 16 presidential elections and where Trump leads by just 1 percentage point.


In a four-way race, Trump tops the field with 46 percent support among likely voters, followed by Clinton at 45 percent, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 4 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 1 percent. Three percent of respondents are undecided.

Clinton has a 40-point advantage among the state’s non-white voters, 67 percent to 27 percent. Trump, however, has decisive leads with white voters (56 percent to 35 percent), including white men (64 percent to 26 percent) and white voters without a college degree (66 percent 28 percent).

The race is much tighter among white women and white college graduates, with Trump leading narrowly with white women (47 percent to 44 percent) and white college grads (45 percent to 43 percent).

Clinton is already winning, though, according to respondents who said they have voted early. Among those who have reported that they’ve already voted, Clinton leads 52 percent to 42 percent. But Trump has an 8-point advantage among those who haven’t voted yet, 49 percent to 41 percent. About 40 percent of respondents said they’ve voted early.

Incumbent Republican Sen. John McCain, who has distanced himself from the GOP nominee, has a double-digit advantage over his opponent, Ann Kirkpatrick, 50 percent to 40 percent with 4 percent undecided. McCain’s net favorability is +10 (43 percent favorable, 33 percent unfavorable), and his approval rating is at 52 percent.

McCain and Kirkpatrick are virtually tied among those who said they’ve already voted, with McCain leading 45 percent to 44 percent. But 54 percent of those who haven’t voted plan to back McCain, while just 38 percent plan to vote for Kirkpatrick.

The survey of 401 likely voters was conducted Oct. 21-24 via landlines and cellphones. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.