Attack of the Spread – NFL Week 10 Mike Stroeh

I’m not sure why someone decided it was a good plan to front-load every Sunday with games, and then leave us with three bad games to close the day. Maybe to let everyone rest up, run errands, and reconnect with their families before the Sunday night game? Whatever the reason, it was compounded last week when my local Fox affiliate decided to run infomercials rather than show an actual game, forcing me to either watch the awful Cincinnati / Denver game or the FlexSeal dude for 3 hours. It was a tougher call than you’d imagine.

This week’s Tim Bits:

An interesting season so far as the two best teams, Atlanta and Houston, feel decidedly vulnerable even though nobody seems to be stopping them. I think Atlanta is trying to set the tone for ‘most tepid hot streak’ and Houston can put it together, but will they?

Indianapolis at Jacksonville – Line: Indianapolis by 3

Tim’s change: Indianapolis by 5

I would have said 3 as well. A rookie-QB-led team as a road favorite? That’s how impressive Luck has been and how desperately the Jags seem to want the first pick. It is a solid race between this sorry not-as-teal-as-you-remember team and the woeful Chiefs. As with the Panthers (until last week) I will not take the Jaguars in any game until they prove there is talent on the roster. And there isn’t. Where’s MJD? 70 yards per game and 1 TD on the ground all season? The Jags should be looking South about 200 miles and watch how the Bucs are riding Doug Martin like he’s in the Breeder’s Cup.

Mike’s change: Indianapolis by 7

Any chance Jacksonville had in this game evaporated as soon as I heard that MJD is basically riding a Rascal around the team facilities. Even with him playing, I wouldn’t like the Jaguars in this game. Indy is in the classic letdown / trap game position here, coming off an emotional win and an even more emotional speech by their coach, Chuck Pagano.

Sorry, got a bit dusty in the Batcave there for a minute. Anyway, any trap game potential here is negated by the fact that Jacksonville is truly awful. If they keep up this pace, their new owner Super Mario will hit the warp zone and land them in LA sooner than later.

NY Giants at Cincinnati – Line: Giants by 4

Tim’s change: Giants by 5 ½

Is Denver that different from the Giants? Both feature a good passing game and occasional good running so why would this week’s result be different from the effort the Bengals gave last week at home? Last week the Giants went 3 and out with a punt 3 times in the 4th quarter and finished the final period with something like -20 yards. Just sick – Eli’s worst game ever I think. I want to pretend that the Bengals are an improving squad – but they are not. There is no pressure on the Giants to win as they will clinch the NFC East even with a 9-7 record so, I’m not worried and the Bengals don’t make anyone worry.

Mike’s change: Giants by 2

The only thing left for Tom Coughlin to accomplish in his career is to land on the coaching hot seat in the season following a Super Bowl victory. New York is in their annual midseason funk, which is probably made worse this year by the fact that the rest of their division is horrible, and they know they can coast to a 9-7 or 10-6 record and make the playoffs. Junior Manning should have a decent game against the Bungles, since Cincy CB Terrance Newman has lots of experience as a Cowboy with not stopping the Giants offense. I can’t come up with any logical reason why Cincinnati should keep this game close, but the Giants lost to a Redskins team quarterbacked by Rex Grossman twice in 2011, so logic doesn’t apply to Giants games.

Tennessee at Miami – Line: Miami by 6

Tim’s change: Miami by 7

Miami is going to be the worst 7-9 team that does nothing for me in a long time. Pay tribute to the schedule gods for giving this Dolphins squad a lineup that matches well against inferior foes. Tennessee is a decidedly inferior foe. The Titans will not finish with the worst record in football but they are almost certain to finish third in this division. The corpse of Chris Johnson never got to play because the team fumbled themselves into a 4 touchdown deficit after 15 minutes. Hard to get the run game moving when you are down 28-2. Miami gave up 300 first half yards to the Colts and the only team with fewer talented receivers than Indy is Miami. I’ll ride the home team.

Mike’s change: Miami by 3

This is one of those “if the team is ever going to do something, it has to be now” games. Tennessee played like a bad Division II team last week, although to their credit it was against the buzz saw that is the Chicago Bears defense. Still, allowing 50 points in the NFL is really hard. Even the Saints haven’t done that yet this year, and they are on pace to have the worst defense in NFL history. Owner Bud Adams put the entire organization on notice following that embarrassment, so if they can’t motivate themselves to at least keep the game within a score, they all deserve to be fired. For better or worse, Jake Locker may make his return to the lineup this week, so at least the passes that miss the receivers by seven yards will be thrown harder. Miami is much improved this year, but I still don’t trust them to cover a big spread at home, especially with Ryan Tannehill limping around in the backfield.

Detroit at Minnesota – Line: Detroit by 2

Tim’s change: Detroit by 3

I would have said Detroit by 2. The Minnesota Ponders are in relapse, giving away the good grace they earned with early season wins against bad teams and the Lions are going to catch them at exactly the right moment. Detroit found the run offense against the woeful Jags and a team with Calvin Johnson that can also run is the kind of team you don’t want to meet in the wild card game. This is the week where Detroit either becomes a factor in the NFC Norris division or hangs below in the wake of the Bears and the Pack. Make or break game for both teams and I will call the playoff chances dead for whichever squad turns up in the ‘L’ column this week.

Mike’s change: Minnesota by 1

I’m not quite ready to jump off of the flaming, sinking wreckage of the Vikings bandwagon, but I’m close. Christian Ponder has been firing shots into his own ship Luke Skywalker style for the past month, with no real signs of stopping. Adrian Petersen may strangle him in the backfield if this keeps up. Leslie Frazier is definitely doing his part to keep the coaching legacy of the ’85 Bears players alive (Ron Rivera and Mike Singletary, I’m looking at you, while ignoring Jeff Fisher). Meanwhile Detroit has climbed back to .500 after a terrible start to the season, but I still have problems taking them on the road when Calvin Johnson hasn’t fully recovered from taking a Madden to the knee. I see Minnesota barely squeaking this one out, in spite of Ponder’s best efforts.

Buffalo at New England – Line: New England by 11

Tim’s change: New England by 13

I would have said 11 as well. Oh, Buffalo – do you want Chan Gailey to get fired? Do you have someone in mind? Do you think Sean Payton might come north into the snow to be your salvation? Buffalo is the team with the most talent that celebrates the annual maneuver to do nothing with it. What happened to the big defensive signings? What happened to Fitz becoming the man? Where’s Stevie Johnson? Is it off looking for the unnecessary ‘i’ in his name? Buffalo played tough for 2/3 of a game against the Texans and New England is coming off the break. I see no reason to think Buffalo will hang close.

Mike’s change: New England by 18

The last time these two teams played, Buffalo hung tough for a half until New England engaged Super Pursuit Mode and never looked back. I think we have enough evidence at this point to say that Chan Gailey has joined the Norv Turner All Stars, as a good to great coordinator that keeps tricking teams into letting him be a head coach. Not that anybody is going to set the world on fire with Ryan Fitzpatrick as his quarterback. Did Tarvaris Jackson get frozen in Carbonite when he was transported from Seattle to Buffalo? Unless Mario Williams is able to put Tom Brady out of the game, which seems unlikely since I’m not sure the $100 million man could run me down right now, New England should be able to name the score.

Atlanta at New Orleans – Line: Atlanta by 2 ½

Tim’s Change: Atlanta by 4

The Saints win will move this line as the Falcons no-respect tour goes by you to the Bayou. Atlanta is clicking in every facet of the game. The Falcons aren’t great against the run, but since New Orleans doesn’t run it won’t matter. The Saint defense isn’t stopping anyone. I don’t want to call this a make-or-break game, but if New Orleans doesn’t win this game Atlanta will clinch the division around the same time I am eating my second helping of mashed potatoes and pumpkin pie.

Mike’s change: Atlanta by 8

Remember how I mentioned that New Orleans’ defense is historically bad? Apparently Vegas hasn’t received the memo yet. The Saints running game got a lift last week with the return of Chris Ivory, but his return is vastly offset by the loss of Darren Sproles for the next 4 – 6 weeks. Sproles was maddening to watch in San Diego, for both good and bad reasons, but he’s got a great chemistry with Drew Brees and works his role in the Saints offense to perfection. This will be another breakout game for Zombie Michael Turner, to pad his stats a bit more and trick people into thinking he’s still alive. I’m slightly worried by the “Can they go 16 – 0” stories that are starting to proliferate around this Falcons team, but I think they hold things together for at least another week.

St. Louis at San Francisco – Line: San Francisco by 11 ½

Tim’s change: San Francisco by 8

St. Louis isn’t as impressive on the road as they are at home, not that they impress in any locale. The 49ers aren’t a blowout-likely team. If you asked me to pick one team to win every game for the rest of the season by exactly 7 points it would be San Francisco. With the Ram offense still off track I don’t consider them an upset likelihood; however, a blowout is more than I’d be willing to go for.

Mike’s change: San Francisco by 14

I held onto the “St. Louis will drag everyone down to their level” belief longer than I should have, which resulted in the Billy Goats getting demolished by New England last week in Jolly Ol’ England. No more, this is just a bad team. Jeff Fisher will get things turned around eventually, but there’s just not enough talent there, especially on offense, to keep this game close. San Francisco isn’t flashy on offense, but they’re going to pummel the Rams for 60 minutes. There will be lots of Frank GORE GORE GORE in the highlights from this week.

San Diego at Tampa Bay – Line: Tampa by 3

Tim’s change: Tampa by 4 ½

Tampa will, naturally, be overrated after a big win; however, Tampa has been playing close to folks all year long. Even during the bad games they have been in the hunt. San Diego seems to only be bringing their ‘A’ game against laughable opponents. Honestly, they must love Norv out in the coastal sun because they have had chance after chance to lose and get him fired and it never happens. As for the game, the Buc offense looks like it has gelled and I just don’t know what to expect from the Chargers.

Mike’s change: Tampa by 7 ½

No way was I fooled by the San Diego victory over the hapless Chiefs last week. The final score was skewed by KC’s abomination of a 4th quarter. The Chargers were also using multiple players who had only been on the team for a week, and still won the game. In short, Kansas City is the worst team in the NFL and any victory over them should come with multiple asterisks. Besides, the stories that leaked before the game that Norv would be fired if they lost guaranteed that San Diego would win, because whatever God there is wants me to abandon my Chargers fandom. Tampa Bay was looking solid on offense even before the explosion by the Muscle Hamster last week in Oakland. Expect a big game from Vincent Jackson in his first matchup against the team that inexplicably wouldn’t pay him like a #1 receiver.

Dallas at Philadelphia – Line: Philadelphia by 2 ½

Tim’s change: Dallas by 1

Two teams struggling to not get their coach fired. Philadelphia has Vick, McCoy, Jackson, Maclin, Celek – and yet this team is 3 close plays away from being winless. I know Dallas might not have Murray and Dez but I just don’t care – I am not taking the Eagles until they put together four straight quarters of play without a ton of turnovers or failed red zone chances. Dallas is the kind of team that Sean Payton would have at 6-2 right now. Too bad he doesn’t coach this team.

Mike’s change: Pick ‘em

This game will only be interesting to see which quarterback can self-destruct more spectacularly. Mike Vick is committing turnovers like he’s in tryouts for the opposite team, while Tony Romo seems to be forgetting that Brett Favre had his enormous leash as a “gunslinger” because he won a fair number of games first. Both teams are constructed more like fantasy teams than actual teams, and seem to be coached about as effectively too. I don’t think Andy Reid would be without a job for very long when he does get fired, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he brings his fight against Diabeetus to Kansas City in the offseason. For this game, though, I think Dallas will do enough to not lose, while Philly does everything it can to give the game away and cause a riot in the stands.

Denver at Carolina– Line: Denver by 4

Tim’s change: Denver by 7

I said I wouldn’t take Camolina again until they won. They did, in unimpressive fashion over a Washington team that is rapidly becoming exactly who we thought they would be. Denver, just the opposite, is playing far above what I expected on defense. I thought this was a 9 win team, 10 max, and a wild card but they, despite the record, are playing far better defense that anyone would dream for them. The offense is doing enough every week and I don’t see anything from the Panthers to make me think they are going to avoid double-digit losses this season.

Mike’s change: Denver by 1

Everybody seems just a bit too high on Denver right now. Cincinnati is not good, and the Broncos were working really hard in the third quarter to give that game away. Seriously, Peyton, two INTs to Terrance Newman on consecutive passes? Were you trying to cheer him up or something? I’m more inclined to view this as a trap game than the Indy / Jacksonville game. Carolina is pretty awful, but they at least looked like an NFL team last week as opposed to whatever it is they’ve been trotting out there so far this season. Plus the talking heads will have trouble trying to explain Cam Newton outplaying Peyton Manning, even for just a week. This is more of a “joy of chaos” pick than anything based in reality.

Oakland at Baltimore – Line: Baltimore by 7 ½

Tim’s change: Baltimore by 5

Baltimore trailed until the 4th and were outgained by the Browns. Blech. If the Raiders were any good at all I’d love to make this line even closer but McFadden isn’t producing and Carson Palmer is… Carson Palmer. The Raiders’ 3 wins are a lucky one over the Steelers at home, the terrible Jags at home and the league-worst Chiefs. I think this will be close and sloppy and I won’t give anyone the huge chance at a win if there aren’t 9 turnovers but nothing indicates this as a Raider victory.

Mike’s change: Baltimore by 3

Who wants to “accidentally” chop block his own terrible quarterback more, Ray Rice or Adrian Petersen? Baltimore has too much talent on offense (outside of their QB) to be this bad on offense. Their defense is another story. If Oakland still had Michael Bush on the roster to go along with the bipolar Run DMC, I could see them putting up 300 yards on the ground here, thus negating Carson Palmer’s compulsive need to throw the ball to the other team. Since Bush is hanging out in Chicago, I don’t see Oakland doing enough to win the game, and Baltimore will continue to be the worst division leader in the league.

NY Jets at Seattle – Line: Seattle by 6 ½

Tim’s change: Seattle by 8

Am I actually considering giving more than a TD with the Seahawks? Yeah, I am, because the Jets are unmotivated, poorly coached, still have no cohesion or plan on offense and the Seattle home field is one on the Mount Rushmore of tough places to play in the NFL. Who scores for the Jets? 21 points per game and that includes the blowout win over the Colts and the season opener where Buffalo turned the ball over all day long. I can see this as 18-10 Seahawks on the power of 6 field goals and a 2-1 margin for time of possession. Russell Wilson isn’t good, but he’s better than what the Jets are lining up behind center right now.

Mike’s change: Seattle by 11

Everybody who keeps saying Russell Wilson has yet to throw an interception at home seems to be forgetting something. That being said, the Jets are in full on tank mode. Tebow is grumbling about playing time, Sexy Rexy is getting voted “most overrated coach“, quite possibly with his own team heavily contributing, and their best offensive and defensive players are gone for the season. They’re a dumpster fire right now, and Seattle’s stadium is not the place that you’re going to turn things around. This game may answer the question “how many INT’s will it take to get the Sanchize benched?” A-one… a-two… a-three!

Houston at Chicago – Line: Chicago by 1 ½

Tim’s change: Chicago by 3

I think the Bears deserve a little more respect than they are getting and the Texans a little less. While Houston might walk in and score 40, I think it is more likely that the Bear D tries to grind down Arian Foster and hold him to 60 yards on 25 carries. If the Bears rush it out with Forte (slightly nicked up as usual) and Bush this game might actually feature more running plays than passes. Expect to drive home early. One of the best Sunday Night games on the schedule, this game will be a fight to the very end and I always take the home team when that happens.

Mike’s change: Chicago by 6

The start time for this game may be delayed a bit while Chicago finishes scoring on Tennessee again. The Bears should feel a bit insulted by the Vegas line here. Granted, Houston is good, but the last time they played a game against the NFC North, it didn’t exactly go well for them. Chicago right now is playing far better than Green Bay was going into that game, so I don’t see how Chicago is barely a favorite on their own home field. Smokin’ Jay Cutler will light them up (har har). Given the turnover-hungry defense that Chicago runs, is this also a bad time to mention that Arian Foster slipped out of the draft because of fumble problems in college?

Kansas City at Pittsburgh – Line: Pittsburgh by 12 ½

Tim’s change: Pittsburgh by 14

The game only a mother could love. That is, if your mother is a fan of the movie ‘Saw’. The Chiefs are turning the ball over more than anyone, they aren’t using Charles at all, their injuries are piling up and Romeo “Where am I?” Crennell has decided to let someone else call defensive plays – yeah, Romeo, that was the problem, thank goodness you were here to fix that. Bottom line is the Steelers can relax and win this one in their sleep and the Chiefs don’t know where the end zone is. 24-3 and boring.

Mike’s change: Pittsburgh by 21

The people of Kansas City deserve better than this train wreck of a season. There are now more people following the Save Our Chiefs Twitter account than will attend the next two Chiefs home games combined. They can’t even fire someone correctly, as Romeo Crennel “fired” himself as the defensive coordinator because his team didn’t think he was paying enough attention to the offense. I can’t imagine where they got that idea. General Manager Scott Pioli continued his media tour in an attempt to save his own ass, sitting down with Chiefs legend Len Dawson to more or less throw his players under the bus. Oh, and did I mention that Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator is former Chiefs coach Todd Haley, who has gone on the record saying he’ll run up the score against his former employers? This one will be uglier than the Steelers’ throwback uniforms.

Tim’s Lock of the Week – NY Jets at Seattle

Mike’s Lock of the Week – Kansas City at Pittsburgh

Last Week:

Tim – 3 correct (1 – 0 locks)

Mike – 5 correct (1 – 0 locks)

Vegas – 6 correct

Season: