DKS: This is a very serious situation for the United States. Whatever is the importance of Crimea for the United States, which I think is negligible, I think it is very clear that if you allow Crimea to join Russia, it would send a very sobering message to all other countries in the region. It clearly would be a blow to American geopolitical credibility in the region and beyond. We were unwilling to do much in Syria or to do much in the case of Iran, and now we would look willing to swallow this political humiliation in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. So there is no question in my mind that the United States has a responsibility to act. But what Obama is doing is exactly the opposite from what should be done in my view.

First, the president likes to make rather disingenuous comments about what is in the Russian interest. He mentioned that twice in this short statement Friday. To be telling Russians what is in their interest—we should know that this is an exercise in futility. To be telling Russians that they will have to pay costs, well, of course they know that there will be costs. You’re not going to intimidate them by threatening to withdraw from G8 or to expel Russia from G8, to say nothing of just suspending preparations for G8. Russia would obviously want to enjoy the additional prestige of hosting G8 in Sochi, but that is so minor in comparison with Russian neoexistential interests in Ukraine. This is plainly not serious. We are constantly talking about economic sanctions—I have seen Secretary Kerry talking about things that we can do, I have seen a bunch of senators, particularly Senator Lindsay Graham, who after helping to bring the United States into Iraq clearly has forgotten nothing and has learned nothing. If we want to be serious, we have to ask ourselves not only what we can do to Russia—of course we can punish Russia—but also what Russia is likely to do in return. We can inflict severe economic damage on Russia. We can do things which would help to isolate Russia internationally.

But then we should not be surprised if Russia, to compensate for economic losses, and for the loss of prestige, would sign a security agreement with Iran, and would supply Iran with S-300 or perhaps S-400 missiles. You should not be surprised if Russia would do considerably more to support President Assad. And most obviously, you should not be surprised if Russia would introduce a new element of global instability by signing a security agreement with Beijing, and there is a considerable interest in Beijing in strengthening security ties to Russia. So far, Putin has not wanted to pull in that direction, because he wants to have a western option, because he wants to have an American connection. He also does not want to be Beijing’s junior partner. But if you deprive him of the European-American connection, we may alter the geopolitical balance by putting Russia closer to China. There are already discussions in Russia about how they would stop supplying their gas to Europe. They have storage facilities. They can reduce the production of natural gas. You know, this would be a situation very, very painful to Russia. But that would be a situation which may be in many respects worse than anything we have witnessed during the Cold War. We would hear the echoes of 1914.

I think that what we need to do is to tone down our rhetoric and to think seriously about what our objectives are. I do not see how more autonomy for Crimea would affect negatively fundamental American national interests. And I do not see how providing more autonomy to eastern Ukraine, giving them essentially what we allow states to have in the United States of America, would be such a terrible thing either, and it actually would promote stability in Ukraine. I would try to approach Putin, the Ukrainian government, and I would try to negotiate a comprehensive deal. I would tell our protégés in Kiev that we want to protect them, and we would go a long way to do so. But at the same time, they have to constrain their rhetoric, and they have to start responding seriously to the eastern provinces’ requests.