The NFL Draft is full of the unknown, as teams trade around, players fall down draft boards, and analysts and fans alike play armchair GM throughout the three-day event. Sometimes the picks that make the “most sense” never materialize, and we are left scratching our heads. It’s hard to gamble on such an unpredictable event, but without the risk, there wouldn’t be so much possible reward. So how can we dynasty fantasy football owners try to advantage of the madness? We’ll have to do our best to play the contrarian and bet against what people assume will happen on April 23rd.

Quarterbacks:

Buy: Carson Wentz

There’s no denying the truth, the Eagles don’t have a lot of options in the passing game, especially once you focus on their wide receivers. Carson Wentz’s fantasy stats were undoubtedly affected by their lack of speed and talent on the outside, but coming into one of the deepest WR classes ever, that is all likely to change. Alshon Jeffery is a shell of his former self, between the injuries and age. Still, the Eagles have addressed some of their secondary issues, opening up their first-round pick as a prime landing spot for a top wide receiver prospect.

Rumors are circling of the Eagles trading up for CeeDee Lamb, which would be a dream scenario for both Went owners and Eagles fans. Other names like Justin Jefferson, Henry Ruggs, and Jalen Reagor have also been mentioned as possible targets, any of which should excite any owner of Wentz. There’s also a high probability of Philadelphia double dipping in this draft and selecting another receiver prospect in the mid-rounds. Then you add in Miles Sanders taking a step forward, the two tight ends, and hopefully, any improvement from Arcega-Whiteside and the Eagles offense could be a sneaky fantasy goldmine.

People are down on Wentz right now, but once he gets a couple of new shiny weapons, he’s going to be hard to pry out of his owner’s hands. Strike now before there are actual names to fill the void at receiver for the Eagles.

Sell: Ryan Fitzpatrick

It’s time to move Ryan Fitzpatrick, not because he’s old but because he’s probably going to be a backup in 2020. The most popular pick for the Dolphins at #5 for a while has been Tua, but the winds have shifted, and Justin Herbert is becoming the more common pick for media members. Whether this is simply a smokescreen by the Dolphins to dull interest in Tua or their actual plans is currently puzzling many draftniks.

I believe that when there’s smoke, there is fire. Tua’s injuries are pushing him down the draft board, and Justin Herbert is very likely to end up in Miami for the 2020 season. If you can find somebody who believes the Dolphins are drafting Tua and that Fitzpatrick will be starting in 2020, I would take advantage of that and try to get whatever you can out of him.

(Also not to mention the fact that Tua may even be healthy enough to play in 2020, therefore hedging your bet in case Tua still ends up with the Dolphins)

Running Backs:

Buy: Damien Williams

The Kansas City Chiefs are the current Super Bowl Champions, thanks in large part to an outstanding performance by Damien Williams. Arguably the Super Bowl MVP, Williams rushed for 104 yards and a touchdown in the championship game while also catching four passes for 29 yards and another touchdown. There’s a lot of reasons to like Williams going forward. When healthy, he played the role of the lead back in the Chiefs electric offense. The Chiefs also picked up his $2.3 million option this offseason. Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson have created no competition, and LeSean McCoy is a free agent. But most importantly, is the fact that the Chiefs only have five picks in this year’s draft.

The Chiefs have seemed, by all accounts, to be quite happy with Damien as their lead back. While a lot of people are trying to match up a top rookie running back with the Chiefs offense, which would create fantasy gold, it’s a bit of stretch to assume the Chiefs are looking to spend a top pick there. Its more than likely that if they address the position, it will be in the mid-rounds, likely on Day 3, and that doesn’t usually equate to a rookie that will come in right away to take the starting job. Now is the time to buy Damien Williams, while everybody thinks he’ll be replaced because if he’s the unquestioned starter after the draft, his price will skyrocket for the 2020 season.

Sell: Ronald Jones

The hype is high right now with Tom Brady coming to Tampa Bay, and Ronald Jones has been a benefactor. The problem is I’m not convinced Ronald Jones is going to be a great running back, and I don’t think Bruce Arians is that convinced either. The Buccaneers are one of the most common landing spots for the top running backs in this year’s draft, mostly being linked with J.K. Dobbins. Just because a running back is playing with Tom Brady doesn’t mean that they will be a top fantasy player, see Sony Michel.

If the Buccaneers select J.K. Dobbins (or any other top RB) during the draft, Ronald Jones will undoubtedly be out of a starting job and taking over the role of a complementary back. While he could still be relevant in fantasy in that role, he’s not going to have the value that he currently does.

Sell: Marlon Mack

After seeing how this recent poll on Twitter went, I couldn’t help but include Marlon Mack as an extra mention. It seems that a lot of people are expecting Ronald Jones to lose his job by the end of the month, and it can be hard to sell a player for good value if everyone sees it that way. But what about a player that the majority of people are still high on? Sure, Mack doesn’t have the greatest ceiling because of his lack of participation in the passing game, but he just finished the year as an RB2 and got an upgrade at quarterback. So why move him?

Purely speculation from yours truly, but I would not be surprised to see the Colts go running back with one of their picks in the first half of the second round (34 & 44). The team has one of the best offensive lines, already boasts a great defense, and just traded a first-round pick for defensive lineman DeForest Buckner. It’s time for this team to go in all offensive weapons. The Colts are in “win-now” mode with Phillip Rivers, and a real workhorse running back would be one of the final pieces. The top of the second round is a perfect time to draft one of the top running backs in this class, and after the team denied contract extension talks, I think this isn’t the worst bet to make.

Wide Receiver:

Buy: Jamison Crowder

Crowder is one of the few players this offseason who will benefit from their team drafting a WR early. Crowder is one of the best slot receivers in the league and has shown a great connection with Sam Darnold. Going forward, Robby Anderson has moved on to the Panthers, and Breshad Perriman has arrived, so basically, the depth chart is wide open after Crowder. The Jets are another team that is nearly guaranteed to draft a wide receiver early and also likely to double dip during this year’s draft. Crowder will more than likely be the secondary target in the 2020 season, but in PPR leagues, he can still be a solid WR3.

Going forward, Crowder will likely be the only starting receiver who has played with Darnold. This gives him a great advantage, and Darnold will provide him with plenty of targets as the hypothetical WR1 on the team should take on the brunt of the coverage. Crowder will live and thrive with underneath routes and has shown some proficiency in the red zone after finishing 2019 with six TDs in his last nine games.

Sell: Deebo Samuel

Don’t call me crazy on this one, Samuel looked great in the 49ers offense. Going into his second year, and now Emmanuel Sanders is gone, so what am I thinking here? After the 49ers picked up pick 13 in a trade with the Colts. Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb have been some of the more popular names to be connected with Jimmy Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers could go several different ways with their first pick. They could trade down and acquire some more mid-round picks, they could replace DeForest Buckner with a player like Javon Kinlaw, or they could help out their quarterback with a top WR. I’m betting on the latter.

If Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb find themselves in San Francisco, Deebo will likely play second fiddle in the receiving game. He’ll still be used plenty in screens and sweeps, but Lamb and Jeudy would more than likely become the primary target for Garoppolo. While I would not be trading Deebo Samuel for pennies, if you can get a high-value return for him, it’s certainly worth a good and long thought.

Tight End:

There is an overall lack of talent at this position in the 2020 NFL Draft. As such, I don’t feel too strongly about any particular players as a buy or sell. However because most will not be directly replaced, but I’ll still give you one of each.

Buy: Hunter Henry

Whether it’s Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, or one of the rookie QBs at the helm, I’m not sure I believe that Tyrod Taylor will be the starting QB of the Chargers going into Week 1. Currently, with Taylor as the starter, the entire Chargers offense is due for a weak year fantasy-wise. If any of the other quarterbacks listed come into Los Angeles for that job, there will be an immediate spike in value across the board.

Let’s take a look at all sides of the unknown QB in powder blue:

Cam Newton is known for his heavy tight end usage. If somehow Newton lands in Los Angeles it could make Hunter Henry more valuable than before with Phillip Rivers.

Jameis Winston did not target O.J. Howard very much at all last year, but that was likely more due to Arian’s gameplan and less of a Winston dilemma. As for a rookie Q.B., there’s always a lot of factors, but usually, rookie quarterbacks are good for tight ends, as they can act as a security blanket in the middle of the field for inexperienced passers.

Henry won’t be cheap, but if someone is nervous about his future with Tyrod, it might be a good time to swoop in.

Sell: Darren Waller

Here’s another situation with a lot of variables. First of all, there’s a chance that Marcus Mariota could be the starting quarterback in Las Vegas. That would not be good for Darren Waller. There’s another (likelier) chance that he won’t be the number one target for his offense this year. Waller was a PPR monster last year as Derek Carr peppered him with targets, but that can quickly change.

The Raiders have two first-round picks, and there’s a good chance that one of those picks goes to a wide receiver. Once again, the names of Lamb, Jeudy, and Ruggs pop up regularly. Not only will at least one rookie be being added to the mix, but the Raiders have already added Jason Witten this offseason. While not the young man he once was, they gave him $3.5 million guaranteed to be out there on the football field.

With all these new faces in town vying for targets, there’s no chance Waller will see the same number of targets. While it may help him evade the spotlight of defense, it will most likely hurt his fantasy value. Another worry about Waller is his limited history as both a TE and also as a contributor on offense. Now is a great time to ship him off and stay away from the unknown over in Las Vegas.