The chancellor, Philip Hammond, and his fellow Conservatives are being careful to badge the spring statement as a non-event – no tax or spending announcements. The budget in November was devoid of substance, and now Hammond will use his platform to tell the public – desperate nurses, struggling single mums, cash-starved local authorities – to wait. But given the mounting evidence that shows austerity is bad for the economy, growing public dissatisfaction, weakened levels of investment as well as the rising human costs – what is he waiting for? The truth is he’s not waiting; he’s trying to hoodwink us. There is no light at the end of the tunnel because since 2010 we have been in a tunnel that leads only to one place – a small state with government-sanctioned hardship and a weaker economy.

A recent poll for the GMB trade union found that 62% of those polled wanted the spring statement to include a real-terms increase in spending on public services. And almost half (48%) of those who voted Conservative at the last general election think the cuts have gone too far. It’s no surprise that people feel this way – the dire NHS winter crisis, endless news about recruitment problems across key services and homeless people dying in the cold is more than enough to jolt a public outcry.

The Conservatives aren’t stupid – they know people are fed up with austerity and increasingly see it for the cruel ideological project it really is. This is why they have indicated that NHS staff will be getting a pay rise. Never mind that this pay rise of 6.5% means they have to work an extra day; isn’t actually a wage increase and doesn’t even begin to compensate for the 14% real-terms pay cut they have had over the past eight years. And what about other public sector workers? The NHS doesn’t operate in isolation; it relies on local services to organise aftercare for patients, teachers to educate children about healthy eating, HMRC to collect the taxes, and public transport and roads to get patients to hospital.

During an interview on the BBC’s Andrew Marr show, Hammond said the 1% pay cap had been lifted across the public sector. However, this is yet another illusion. Research by the Centre for Labour and Social Studies (Class) for the PCS union found that the majority of departments – including work and pensions, HMRC and transport – didn’t have the money to pay even for an increase of 1% below inflation. When it came to an above-inflation rise of 5%, even more departments fell short. In other words, without further job losses or cuts to public services, government departments can’t afford to give public sector workers a pay rise. Ten years after the financial crash, public sector workers are still picking up the tab for reckless bankers and poor financial regulation. It’s a scandal of epic proportions.

Ending austerity isn’t just a matter of no longer cutting; it requires reversing the cuts and increasing spending

And here’s the thing that everyone seems to have missed – ending austerity isn’t just a matter of no longer cutting; it requires reversing the cuts and increasing spending. However, without a noticeable rise in the tax take, this will inevitably increase public debt. Given that this government is wedded to the idea that debt is always bad, how can the state ever expand again? Ordinarily, it would be by increasing investment to boost our productive potential and create high-waged jobs. But the government’s commitment to eliminating the deficit across all areas of spending means we are stuck with relatively low levels of investment unless we have further cuts to frontline services (which are also investments in our human potential). I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but without a fundamental shift in our economic policy we are doomed.

After the budget last November I was asked to appear alongside some Conservative commentators to discuss the chancellor’s statement on BBC Newsnight. During this I was told that the budget was a success because Conservative backbenchers would allow Hammond to keep his job. I was outraged – economic policy is about the wellbeing of the country, not one man’s job. This time around, with Hammond’s job relatively safe, it will instead be about how well this government can keep up its game of smoke and mirrors. It is now not about if one man can survive, but a whole ideology.

• Faiza Shaheen is the director of the Centre for Labour and Social Studies