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Calgary will go from having one of the country’s top performing economies in 2014 to among the worst this year, according to a Conference Board of Canada report one city business leader says may be too optimistic.

The board’s Metropolitan Outlook, which examined 13 major cities across the country, said Calgary’s economy — significantly weakened by the dramatic decline in oil prices — will see real gross domestic product plunge from 5.1 per cent in 2014 — second only to Edmonton’s 5.2 per cent — to negative 0.5 per cent this year, the first contraction in Calgary since 2009.

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It said the low oil price and resulting economic downturn will have sweeping consequences, including a noticeable slowdown in net migration.

“This, along with sagging consumer confidence, will result in a sharp plunge in housing starts,” the report states. “Accordingly, construction output is poised to fall sharply. Similarly, primary and utilities output is on track to shrink for the first time in six years, hampered by the plunge in oil prices.”