The president now faces potential legal jeopardy following his former campaign chairman’s conviction and ex-lawyer’s plea

Q&A: what is Donald Trump accused of and what happens now?

Tuesday was a bad day for Donald Trump. His former lawyer Michael Cohen accused the president of joining in what prosecutors might see as a conspiracy to violate elections laws, and his former campaign chairman Paul Manafort was convicted of eight federal felonies and appears headed for prison.

What happens next?

What has Trump been accused of?

One significant new accusation against Trump emerged on Tuesday. In open court, Cohen said that “in coordination with, and at the direction of, a candidate for federal office” he had made hush agreements with two women “for the principal purpose of influencing the election”.

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The hush money agreements amounted to an illegal corporate donation made directly to a candidate and an illegally large individual donation. The extent of Trump’s involvement was made plain by charging documents which described how Cohen submitted false invoices so that Trump could reimburse him for the payments.

As Cohen’s lawyer, Lanny Davis, said in a statement afterwards: “If those payments were a crime for Michael Cohen, then why wouldn’t they be a crime for Donald Trump?”

Will Trump face some kind of criminal charge?

Probably not. Past justice department guidance has held that a sitting president may not be indicted for a crime, and Trump’s legal team has said (caveat lector) that special counsel Robert Mueller had assured them he would follow that guidance.

Trump could theoretically be indicted upon leaving office, but historically in the US there has not been much appetite for prosecuting former presidents.

What happens now?

The worst scenario for Trump would be for Democrats to gain control of congress in the November midterm elections, and start up corruption investigations possibly including impeachment hearings. Basically, Trump’s fate is in the hands of voters.

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Will the public grow disgusted with the president as he sides with convicted felons such as Manafort who declined to pay taxes on millions in overseas income while buying ostrich jackets and extravagant antique carpets? Or will they get sick of being blatantly lied to by the president to their faces?

Or, on the other hand, will that crucial sliver of potentially wavering Trump supporters agree with the president that it’s all a “witch-hunt”?

“Let’s remember that this is ultimately about Congress and not the courts,” tweeted Eric Columbus, a senior lawyer in the justice department during the Barack Obama years. “Anyone who thinks Trump will face a criminal trial while president is kidding themselves.”

So if Trump maintains his consistent approval rating, he’s all good?

No. Trump is at the center of multiple overlapping state and federal investigations led by Mueller’s investigation of Trump campaign ties with Russia and related matters.

Each arm of the investigation appears capable of revealing potentially criminal conduct by the president or by members of his family, or conduct by Trump that might violate his oath of office – or something else.

The breathtaking multiplicity of fronts on which Trump appears to be legally vulnerable – from his campaign to his business to his conduct in office – is terrible for him, noted Benjamin Wittes, editor in chief of Lawfare, writing in the Atlantic: “The situation gets worse for the president – because nobody, including him, has much idea when the next blow is coming or along which of these fronts.”

Is there a bright side for Trump?

How about this statistic: “Only 28% of young adults say they are absolutely certain they will vote in the 2018 election compared to 74% of seniors,” according to a study by the non-profit PRRI. If the Democrats can’t take Congress, the notion of accountability for Trump may recede farther into the distance.

Trump also has his durable approval rating. In the eyes of the public, he may have been inoculated against certain accusations, such as Cohen’s statement that he was in on the hush agreements, by the fact that his spokesman Rudy Giuliani blurted out the same thing months ago on television, and that Cohen had already released audio tapes appearing to document Trump’s involvement.

Neither Manafort nor Cohen has yet agreed with prosecutors to offer testimony in cases running parallel. But this point of encouragement for Trump is a fragile one. If Manafort, facing the prospect of ending his life in prison, decided to testify against the president, his description of Trump campaign contacts with Russians could expose criminality or additional Trump lies.

If you were Trump, would you be worried?

Yes, over things like the surprise news last week that White House counsel Don McGahn has spent 30 hours with the special counsel and the president’s legal team has little idea what he said; or the fact that the longtime Trump Organization chief financial officer, Allen Weisselberg, has been subpoenaed by Mueller.

With the Manafort guilty verdict, the Mueller team would seem to display, from Trump’s perspective, a somewhat disturbing efficiency. The charging documents against Cohen showed how the special counsel has gained detailed knowledge of the inner workings of the Trump Organization – in the case of the hush payments, at least. If the Trump Organization hosted illegal activity, Mueller might discover it and charge it.

Mueller also appears to be weighing an obstruction of justice charge against Trump. Again, Trump appears to know as little as the public about what is coming next out of the justice department. As national security specialist and historian Tim Weiner told the Guardian last week: “The president of the United States is terrified.”

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What about Russia?

Exactly. Trump has argued that Mueller is currently on a fishing expedition, having lost sight of his original focus on Russia. Unfortunately for Trump, that does not appear to be the case.

In indictments previously returned against Russian individuals and companies, Mueller has documented how Russian agents stole US identities, spied inside the country and carried out a campaign of online hacking and subterfuge to upset US democracy. Many of the Russians’ tactics came to public light for the first time owing to Mueller.

Only Mueller and his team know what’s coming next. In one of the lesser news lines Tuesday, Mueller and the legal team for Michael Flynn, Trump’s former national security adviser, agreed to put off Flynn’s sentencing owing to his ongoing participation in open investigations.

Stay tuned.