On Trump and trade, are the Trudeau Liberals gripped by wishful thinking?

It’s “impossible to imagine,” Trudeau recently said, any trade action by Trump against Canada that “wouldn’t significantly harm jobs in the United States as well as in Canada.”

He’s probably right. A recent analysis from the C.D. Howe Institute makes exactly that point.

But it’s irrelevant. Trump’s goal isn’t shared economic growth. It’s to be the biggest bully on the block and take what he wants. There might be casualties – but that’s the price of plunder.

And so the implication of Trudeau’s theory – that inter-connected economies mean Trump won’t attack – is wishful thinking.

The C.D. Howe report shows why. US trade action against Canada – and even Canadian retaliation against the US – would hurt Canada more than the US.

When a bully sizes-up that situation, he knows he can threaten a harder punch and a longer reach. Trudeau’s downplaying doesn’t make that danger go away. Trump has already pulled a couple of moves on us.

He’s made no bones about his dislike for multi-lateralism – negotiations between more than one country at a time. President Obama described multi-lateralism as a check on US hubris. Trump isn’t a hubris-checking kind of guy.

On NAFTA, Trump wants to end multi-lateralism so he can bully Mexico. To set it up, Trump sent his advisor Stephen Schwarzman to meet the Liberal cabinet.

Schwarzman – whose personal fortune is over $10 billion – was greeted with open arms. Global Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland hailed him as “my long-time good friend.”

He brought the Liberals a beautiful message – yes, Trump will be brutal to Mexico. But he thinks fondly of Canada. Don’t be “enormously worried” about NAFTA renegotiations, he said.

That’s all it took. The Liberals stood back. Canadians, the Liberals said chins a-tremble, shouldn’t become “collateral damage.” Then, downplaying the danger to Canadians, they suggested Trump wants to go after Mexico, not us.

Was it the right thing to do? There might not have been much we could do for our Mexican partners. But does it mean Trump won’t also go after Canada? He already has.

Last week, when Trump repeated his support for a Keystone XL pipeline, Liberals popped champagne.

But Trump didn’t actually approve the Keystone plan – he invited TransCanada Pipelines to submit a new application. And, on the same day, Trump directed billionaire Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross to create a plan to ensure maximum use of American-made steel in any US pipeline.

You see, under TransCanada’s original plan, 24% of the steel in Keystone’s US section was to come from a Regina steel mill. But when asked about protecting those jobs last week, Trudeau again stood back. It’s not an issue for him, Trudeau deflected, it’s TransCanada’s issue.

Canada needs to be clear-eyed about Trump – not deflect, downplay, enable and appease.

The question is not whether Trump is going to hurt us. It’s how can we work with others to stop him.

Think of that lone Carrier union president who stood up to Trump’s abuse to tell the truth. The Boston mayor who refuses to comply with Trump’s immigration diktats. The millions of women and men world-wide who protested the bully. The Mexican leaders – and soon, leaders throughout South and Central America – condemning Trump’s aggression. It’s in Canada’s interest to work with these brave people, not stand back.

Tom Parkin is a former NDP staffer and social democrat media commentator