The World Food Organization warns of losses in the grain harvest. Possible causes include climate change and rising meat consumption.

For the second time in this decade, the global grain harvest will not be enough to meet the needs of the world's population. This is predicted by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in Rome and the International Grains Council (IGC) in London. In the agricultural year 2018/19, therefore, almost 30 million tons more are consumed than harvested, estimates the FAO in its latest forecast. The expected total harvest around the globe is estimated at nearly 2.66 billion tonnes by UN staff.

One cause of the current decline is the drought of the past year across much of Europe, resulting in wheat and wheat losses in the EU and Russia.



The consequences of scarce wheat are already being felt in Europe: Producer prices for food - ie the prices demanded by manufacturers - have barely risen in January and February compared with the previous year, according to the Federal Association of the German Food Industry (BVE). But for bread and cereal products, producer prices in Germany increased by 6.3 percent, as the association announced on request. As far back as 2018, on average bread and cereal products had higher price increases than other foods.



Wheat is predominantly intended for human consumption, while the greater part of the maize crop is used for the production of feed for cattle, pigs and other livestock.

Europe's largest distributor of agricultural commodities is the Munich Baywa. Its CEO Klaus-Josef Lutz suspects that climate change is making itself felt. In 2018, the European grain harvest was 6% lower than in the previous year due to drought. "2018 was not the runaway," said Lutz recently. "This is the third and fourth year in a row that climatic capers make our business difficult."



The global granaries are still well filled

A minus in the grain harvest does not mean famine is imminent: the warehouses and warehouses around the globe are well filled. In previous years, grain production had risen sharply. Baywa estimates that the growing global appetite for meat plays an important role in this development. "The truth is simple: people want to eat more meat, so we need grain," said CEO Lutz. "We see that we have declining production on the one hand and higher consumption on the other."

In fact, "We have seen a fairly strong increase in global corn production over the past decade," said FAO economist Abdolreza Abbassian in Rome. He cites two causes: "In the US, corn production for the production of biofuels has been expanded." And on the other side of the Pacific, the Chinese eat more meat.

The expansion of maize production has, according to Abbassian words, no significant impact on wheat production and thus the production of food. "Corn and wheat grow in different places and at different times," said the FAO expert.

London's International Grains Council expects global inventories to shrink both this year and next. The London experts predict a somewhat larger inventory shrinkage of 44 million tonnes in 2018/19 and anticipate a further decline of 28 million tonnes in 2019/20. The last global grain deficit occurred in the agricultural year 2012/13, when US farmers were suffering the effects of a multi-year drought.