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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 001202 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, KDEM, KCRM, SNAR, MX SUBJECT: PRI PRESIDENT OPTIMISTIC FOR PARTY'S FUTURE Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Charles V. Barclay. Reason: 1.4 (b), (d). 1. (C) Summary. CDA met with PRI President Beatriz Paredes for an April 24 breakfast. Discussion ranged from President Obama's recent visit to the PRI's prospects in the July legislative elections. Overall, Paredes was optimistic about the party's chances in the upcoming votes, as well as the 2012 presidential contest. She also implied that relations with the PAN will worsen, including in the next Congressional term, should PAN continue its electoral strategy of heavily criticizing and accusing the PRI of being tied to drug trafficking. End Summary Pleased With President Obama's Visit ------------------------------------ 2. (C) CDA opened the April 24 breakfast meeting with Revolutionary Institutional Party (PRI) President Beatriz Paredes by soliciting her take on the April 16-17 visit from President Obama. Paredes replied that she thought that the visit had gone very well, and admitted that she is a biased observer as she is a "fan" of the President. She thought it was important the President had the opportunity to see for himself -- albeit on a short trip -- the realities of Mexico and to better understand its security challenges from an on-the-ground perspective. 3. (C) Several other bilateral issues were raised during the course of the breakfast, including the question of arms trafficking across the border and delays in disbursing Merida Initiative funds. The conversation was cordial with Paredes appearing to appreciate domestic U.S. sensitivities in treating the gun control issue. CDA explained why Merida implementation had been slow in some cases -- including a change in the U.S. administration and a multi-faceted negotiation process oftentimes involving several Mexican government agencies. She also noted where programs were already well underway. July Legislative Elections -------------------------- 4. (C) Paredes noted that the PRI is positioned going into the July Chamber of Deputies elections to become the largest party in the lower house and could even snag an absolute majority. Paredes pointed to the party's success in local elections over the past two years as indicative that the PRI still maintains a large core of loyal supporters throughout Mexico, which will undoubtedly benefit the party in July. Paredes argued that the PRI's 2006 presidential electoral debacle was the result of a bad candidate rather than an outright rejection of the party by voters. She also said that the PRI's weakness in Mexico City tends to give the impression that the party is more fragile nationwide than it really is. The party president said that the PRI will certainly pursue its own program and will drive initiatives in Congress, particularly should it win an absolute majority, but offered no specifics on the kinds of proposals it planned to make. 5. (C) As a plurinominal candidate for a federal deputy seat, Paredes is virtually guaranteed a seat based on her high ranking on the party's candidate list. Nevertheless, she said she was content as PRI president and had not wanted to pursue the position. Instead, she noted that her entrance into the Chamber was part of a broader party strategy to put its key leaders in Congress. She claimed she has no plans to be the leader of the PRI legislative bloc, but would reconsider depending on the needs of the party. PRI vs. PAN ----------- 6. (C) Paredes was unequivocal in her criticism of the PRI's primary rival, the National Action Party (PAN), maintaining it had proven unable to grow out of its role as an opposition party and into a real leadership position. She said that the PRI would have been far more effective than the PAN has been in treating the security program without offering how the PRI would have governed differently. She also argued that the PAN is mistaken in its present electoral strategy of MEXICO 00001202 002 OF 002 intensified criticism of the PRI and accusations that it is a party marred by ties to narcotics trafficking. The PRI has supported the PAN on 95 percent of its initiatives in Congress, including major legislation such as pension reform, judicial reform, and an energy reform 'lite.' She described the PAN's acrimonious approach to its major congressional partner as very risky. Paredes implied that relations between the two parties -- including in Congress -- will become increasingly rancorous next session should the PAN continue with the negative campaigning. PAN would be better off to "focus less on polls and more on politics." Presidential Politicking ------------------------ 7. (C) Paredes declined to discuss in detail the PRI,s election process or plans for the 2012 presidential election. The elections are three years out, she explained, and the party still needs to focus on the six gubernatorial votes in 2010. Nevertheless, she indicated that Mexico State Governor Enrique Pena Nieto would be the strongest candidate, particularly if he successfully stewards PRI victory in his state,s 2011 gubernatorial elections. (Note: There is probably little risk of a non-PRI candidate capturing the governorship. The PRI has ruled Mexico State for decades.) Paredes revealed little about her own rumored presidential ambitions, claiming that she is working to ensure that the PRI wins the presidency rather than working to capture the slot herself. She clearly believes that the PRI has a very good shot at winning the 2012 contest. Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / BASSETT