Striking Oklahoma teachers, the worst paid in the US, won a historic pay rise in the spring. Now, conservative groups have targeted the tax hikes earmarked to pay them, and by November the cash could be gone, leaving schools and educators in limbo.



In March, teacher salaries in Oklahoma were raised by an average of $6,100 a year, a raise paid for by a bill that raised taxes for cigarettes, cigars, motor and diesel fuel and the gross production of energy, and initially a $5-a-night hotel tax.



The decision, in a deep red conservative state, was heralded as a major victory for unions and teachers and came after a series of successful teacher strikes in other conservative states.



But a petition now circulating among Oklahomans and backed by a group of conservative activists could defund the wage hikes, leave the state’s already crisis-racked school system scrabbling to find the funds to pay their teachers and has already triggered confusing calls for a stay of promised tax collection increases as the situation unfolds.



The salary raise was a herculean feat given Oklahoma’s aversion to tax hikes. Thanks to a 26-year-old voter referendum, three-quarters of the legislature must vote yes to any tax increase. The need for a super-majority, and the legislature’s penchant for tax and spending cuts, has had a profound impact on the state’s budget. Oklahoma’s budget for 2019 is 9.4% less than it was in 2009.



Despite this hurdle, Oklahoma Education Association (OEA), encouraged by the successful protests by West Virginian teachers, took to the streets, marching from all parts of the state, to converge on the state capitol.



After heated debate, the bill, without the hotel tax, projected an increase in revenue of $428.5m that could pay for the raises – the first time Oklahoma had increased taxes since 1992.

Oklahoma teachers, students and supporters rally at the state capitol in Oklahoma City on 4 April 4,. Photograph: J Pat Carter/AFP/Getty Images

And though some teachers were disappointed that the brokered deal did not extend to sizable increases in per-pupil expenditures, it seemed for a moment that a new day was dawning. But that victory is now in limbo and educators worry that the situation in Oklahoma’s troubled school system could be about to get worse.



Matthew Williams, a bearded, 6ft 4in product of Oklahoma schools, knows first hand how much trouble his school system is in. In his first job ever, he learned he’d be teaching five advanced US history classes “that were all nine weeks behind because they didn’t have a teacher”.



Williams gained attention during the walkout by biking seven hours from Tulsa to the state capitol in Oklahoma City. He spent nearly the entirety of the walkout at the capitol talking with legislators and presenting some stark data about his school, Booker T Washington, one of Oklahoma’s top-rated magnet schools.



He told legislators that since joining the teaching staff just two years ago, “10 teachers have left and I’ve been through two principals, three assistant principals, and the department chair who hired me is leaving for better pay in Dallas”. Now he worries his data-driven advocacy may have been all for naught.



Moments after the hard-fought victory, a ragtag group of conservatives incorporated as Oklahoma Taxpayers Unite found the nearest microphone to fire a warning shot at what seemed like progress. The announcement of the petition effort was headlined by the former Oklahoma senator Tom Coburn, who got his nickname, Dr No, from his tendency to block any bill that increased taxes on Americans – even blocking bills on his last day in office.

The group wants to take advantage of a clause in the state constitution that allows Oklahomans to overturn any legislation if they can 1) get 5% of voters (now approximated at 41,242) to sign petitions that place a state question on the coming ballot and 2) subsequently, get a majority of voters in the subsequent election to support their state question.



West Virginia’s teachers strike emboldened Oklahoma’s teachers to follow suit Photograph: Tyler Evert/AP

If Oklahoma Taxpayers Unite collects enough signatures by 18 July, the new tax package will be paused. In a last-ditch effort, another group, Professional Oklahoma Educators, has challenged the petition’s legality in the state supreme court with a decision pending. Even Joy Hofmeister, state superintendent of education, has asked the state attorney general, Mike Hunter, to weigh in on whether schools are legally obligated to give those raises. Hunter has yet to comment.



Recent history suggests Oklahoma Taxpayers Unite stands a good chance of overturning the hard-won tax increases. In 2016, Oklahoma tried to raise sales taxes by one cent to generate a projected increase in education funding and teacher pay. When the proposal, State Question 779, was put to the vote it failed, 58.8% to 41.1%.



For the state’s teachers, the vote sent a signal that they were not valued — not even by one cent. For Williams, “it was pretty demoralizing and disheartening”.



Teachers are worried that history could repeat itself this coming election cycle when Oklahomans might to be asked to vote again on a tax hike if the petition successfully gets the signatures. “If we (teachers] get a raise and the revenue measures are vetoed, then some other public service will be underfunded and we will look like the bad guys,” said Williams.



In the meantime the Tulsa-based firm Rosenstein Fist & Ringold, which represents more than 300 school districts, has advised its clients to place renewing teacher contracts on pause. If districts renew contracts with increased wages but the increased tax funding is rescinded by this state question, those districts might be stuck footing the bill through some other means.



And Oklahoma’s school districts do not have those means. Oklahoma’s teachers were already among the lowest paid in the country, making it difficult to recruit and retain them. Educators are leaving the state for better pay. Even the 2016 Oklahoma teacher of the year left for Texas.



In the last decade, teachers across the state have seen student enrollment increase by approximately 50,000, at the same time general funding for education has been slashed by approximately $170m. Some districts have started to implement a four-day school week. Oklahoma’s brand of education is crisis, like many other states around the country.



For now, teachers, principals and legislators are on tenterhooks waiting for 18 July – when the signatures for the petition are due. Williams said he is trying his best to “be hopeful because otherwise it would be far too depressing”.