The recent transfer of two deepwater drilling rigs from the Gulf of Mexico to waters elsewhere prompted critics of a government drilling ban to repeat predictions of a mass flight that would wreck the region's economy and severely curtail U.S. energy production.

But nearly eight weeks after Interior Secretary Ken Salazar announced a six-month moratorium on deepwater drilling, 31 of the 33 rigs that were operating in the Gulf when the Deepwater Horizon exploded remain there.

While at least one other rig could be moved soon, several experts say an exodus is unlikely. Oil companies have found few other promising reservoirs where they could immediately transfer their rigs. Moreover, an expected surplus of newly built rigs next year will make it easier to replace rigs that do leave.

"The dire predictions will not come to pass," said Amy Myers Jaffe, head of the Baker Institute Energy Forum at Rice University.

Oil companies are finding formulas to keep leased rigs in the area, such as agreeing to pay standby fees to drilling contractors or doing maintenance or other work unrestricted by the ban. Two oil-industry analysts predict that only about one-fourth to one-third of the Gulf's deepwater rigs will end up leaving, and many will eventually return or be replaced.