ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – As fears of war between Iran and the United States subside, Iraqi protesters plan a major return to the streets on Friday. But they face their biggest challenge without the support of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, according to Iraqi security analyst Husham al-Hashimi.



“I believe today will be the important test for the protesters. Can they, without the Sadr Movement, hold a one million [person] protest? If they fail in this, then they won't get stronger,” Hashimi told Rudaw English on Friday.



“They still are in their place, and they haven't evolved very much. If the one million [person] protest happens today, the protester movement is big and powerful and doesn't need the Sadr Movement,” he explained.



Anti-government protesters have been in the streets for more than three months, demanding regime change, constitutional change, and better lives in a country where poverty and corruption are widespread. They have been met with deadly violence, including live rounds and military-grade tear gas. More than 500 protesters and security force members have been killed, according to the UN Special Envoy to Iraq, and at least 17,000 people have been injured.



The protests had the backing of influential cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and the protesters were able to score two partial wins – Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi resigned, though he remains in place as a caretaker, and parliament passed a bill amending the election law, though the changes failed to meet protesters’ demands.



The protests, however, lost steam and dropped off the news agenda as tensions between the United States and Iran captured the world’s attention.



On December 27, an American military contractor was killed and several service members were injured in a rocket attack on the K-1 base in Kirkuk, where US troops are stationed. The Iran-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah was blamed. The US responded on December 29, killing 25 members of the militia, including a commander, in airstrikes. The US then assassinated Iran’s General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad International Airport alongside the deputy head of Iraq’s Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (known as Hashd al-Shaabi in Arabic) Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis on January 3rd. Iran retaliated on Wednesday, launching missiles at US forces based in Iraq.



With the fear that war between the US and Iran with their proxies could break out on Iraqi soil grabbing attention, the voices of protesters demanding foreign countries take their fight outside Iraq’s borders were lost.



Tehran and Washington have both signaled that they do not want further military confrontation. With that breathing space, Iraq’s protesters have called for people to return to the streets. On their Telegram channels, protesters called for people to demonstrate against violations of Iraqi sovereignty and demand an end to foreign influence in the country.



The protesters have prided themselves on their diversity and lack of leadership – saying they are a true grassroots movement that is bound only by Iraqi nationality.



“I believe that the protesters in Tahrir Square and other squares have a variety of cultures. There are liberals, atheists, moderate Islamists, Islamist party members, and civilians. However, I believe all of them support the [Iraqi] regime changing its behavior, including changing the behavior of groups belonging to Hashd al-Shaabi,” Hashimi said.



“I don't believe they have a united vision except for the regime changing its behavior, early elections, and a new Prime Minister. This is what they agree on,” he added.



The head of the UN’s Iraq mission urged Iraq not to forget the protests amid regional conflicts. “Regional security developments should not eclipse domestic priorities and reform demands. The people’s voice, expressed peacefully, must be heeded. Killings, kidnappings, use of live ammunition and threats against protesters must stop; perpetrators to be held accountable,” Jeanine Hennis said in a Thursday tweet.



But the success of the protests is uncertain as Sadr appears to have withdrawn his support.



Mohammed Salih al-Iraqi, a Twitter persona close to Sadr, in a warning to protesters said it will be the “beginning of the end” of Iraq’s “revolution” if slogans such as “we don’t want Marjas [Shiite religious authorities], parties,” among other slogans, are put up in the squares.

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