

John Robb is a globally-recognized author, technologist, and

entrepreneur specializing in the complex systems of insurgency and

asymmetrical warfare. His book, Brave

New War, is an Amazon best-seller and established his expertise as

a researcher & military consultant. He has been featured in the New

York Times, The Economist, and the Wall Street Journal. His daily

thoughts are collected on his blog, Global Guerrillas.

I asked him some questions about his work, our times, and the shifting

landscape of governance & power…

In your book Brave New War you explore the changing nature

of warfare. What are some recent examples of insurgency, resource

conflicts, or terrorism that you feel best illustrate this new

landscape?

Here's an interesting story that may do the trick. Back in 2004, the

US military was getting trounced in guerrillas in Iraq. Worse, the US

military establishment didn't know why. Didn't have a clue. To correct

this, I began to write about how 21st Century warfare actually worked

on my blog, Global Guerrillas. Essentially, I concluded that guerrilla

groups could use open source organizational models (drawn from the

software industry), networked super-empowerment (freely available high

tech tools, network information access, connections to a globalized

economy), and systems disruption (the targeting of critical points on

infrastructure networks that cause cascading failures) to defeat even

the most powerful of opponents, even a global superpower.

The new theories of warfare I developed on the blog proved both

predictive and very popular. As a result, I spent a lot of time on the

speaking circuit in Washington DC (DoD, CIA, NSA, etc.). Of course,

since my work was on a blog everyone could read it, even the

guerrillas themselves.

So, it was a little surprising although not

unexpected when I got an e-mail in 2009 from Henry Okah, a leader of MEND (the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta). He invited me to Nigeria and stated that he was an avid reader of my

blog.

It was a moment out of history, as if the UK's General Liddell Hart

(the originator of blitzkrieg armored warfare) got a note from

Germany's tank General Heinz Guderian in 1939, thanking him for his

work. Here's why: MEND's campaign against Shell (the oil company) and

the Nigerian government between 2006 and 2008 was a great example of

how I thought 21st Century warfare would be fought. The organization

structure was loose and organized along the lines of an open source

movement. Lots of small autonomous groups joined together to take down

the country's oil infrastructure by targeting vulnerable points in the

network (Nigeria is a major global oil exporter). During 2007, they

were able to take out one million barrels a day of oil production.

This shortfall was the reason oil prices rose to $147 a barrel. Those

high prices had a negative global economic impact: the start of a

global recession and a spike in default rates in US sub-prime

mortgages (due to higher driving and food costs). That spike in

sub-prime mortgage default rates radically accelerated the demise of

our grossly over leveraged global financial sector, which in turn led

to the financial panic of 2008.

In short, MEND's disruption campaign, yielded tens of trillions of

dollars in global economic damage for tens of thousands of dollars

spent on making the attacks. That's a return on investment (ROI) of

1,000,000,000%. How do nation-states survive when an unknown guerrilla

group in a remote corner of the world can generate returns on that

magnitude? They don't.

The United States is suffering both the economic decline of

its industry and the ongoing dismantling of the social welfare

apparatus supporting the citizenry. In your opinion, will this

inevitably lead to some form of armed insurgency in America?

Yes. The establishment of a predatory and deeply unstable global

economic system – beyond the control of any group of nations – is in

the process of gutting developed democracies. Think in terms of the

2008 crisis, over and over again. Most of what we consider normal in

the developed world, from the middle class lifestyle to government

social safety nets, will be nearly gone in less than a decade. Most

developed governments will be in and out of financial insolvency.

Democracy, as we knew it, will wither and the nation-state bureaucracy

will increasingly become an enforcer for the global bond market and

kleptocratic transnational corporations. Think Argentina, Greece,

Spain, Iceland, etc. As a result, the legitimacy of the developed

democracies will fade and the sense of betrayal will be pervasive

(think in terms of the collapse of the Soviet Union). People will

begin to shift their loyalties to any local group that can provide for

their daily needs. Many of these groups will be crime fueled local

insurgencies and militias. In short, the developed democracies will

hollow out.

How big of a domestic threat is there from the

narco-insurgency in Mexico and the growing power of Latin American

gangs in America?

Very big. A threat that dwarfs anything we face in Afghanistan (a

useless money pit of a war). It's not a threat that can be solved by

conventional military means, since the problem is that Mexico is a

hollow state. Unlike a failed state like Somalia (utter chaos), a

hollow state still retains the facade of a nation (borders,

bureaucracy, etc.). However, a hollow state doesn't exert any

meaningful control over the countryside. It's not only that the state

can't do it militarily, they don't have anything they can offer

people. So, instead, control is ceded to local groups that can provide

basic levels of opt-in security, minimal services, and jobs via new

connections to the global economy – think in terms of La Familia in

Michoacana.

The real danger to the US is that not only will these groups expand

into the US (they already have), it is that these groups will

accelerate the development of similar homegrown groups in the US as

our middle class evaporates.

Do you see a diminishing role for the state in large-scale

governance? Does this compel communities to do it for

themselves?

Yes, large scale governance is on the way out. Not only are nearly all

governments financially insolvent, they can't protect citizens from a

global system that is running amok. As services and security begin to

fade, local sources of order will emerge to fill the void. Hopefully,

most people will opt to take control of this process by joining

together with others to build resilient communities that can offer the

independence, security, and prosperity that isn't offered by the

nation-state anymore. However, this is something you will have to

build for yourself. Nobody is going to help you build it.

In what ways are the new methods of insurgency & terror

instructive towards building strategies for resiliency?

Here are a few of the parallels:

* Powerful technologies. Inexpensive tools that make it possible

to produce locally what it used to take a global economy to produce.

* Networks. The ability to draw on the ideas of hundreds of

thousands of people working on the same problems through open source

tinkering networks. The ability to create new economic networks that

accelerate prosperity.

You're currently writing a book about local resiliency.

What are the primary global drivers behind your interest in

resiliency?

Yes, I am. It's about building resilient communities. Communities that

offer energy independence, food security, economic prosperity, and

protection. What are the global drivers that make resiliency

important? Simply: stability, prosperity, and security is going away.

You will soon find you are on your own, if you haven't already. If you

do nothing, you will suffer the predations of gangs, militias, and

corrupt bureaucracies that will fill the void left by retreating

nation-states. If you want to avoid this fate, you can build resilient

communities that not only allow you and your family to survive intact,

but to thrive. My goal with my new book, is to provide people with a

road map on how to build resilient communities from scratch.

What is the core messages you have to communities about

preparing for the coming age?

Produce everything you can locally. Virtualize everything else. The

value of your home will be based on the ability of your community to

offer energy independence, food security, economic vitality, and

protection. Survivalist stockpiles and zero footprint frugality are

pathways to failure. Think in terms of vibrant local economic

ecosystems that are exceedingly efficient, productive, and bountiful.