POLITICO Playbook: Biden the durable Presented by Amazon

Despite the chatter about Joe Biden’s shortcomings, he still has a comfortable lead in the primary, having barely budged after enduring weeks of tough criticism from the left. | Ethan Miller/Getty Images

DRIVING THE DAY

THE BIG TAKEAWAY FROM THE LATEST QUINNIPIAC POLL on the presidential race: JOE BIDEN’S durability.

DESPITE THE CHATTER about Biden’s shortcomings, he’s still in the mid-30s, having barely budged after enduring weeks of tough criticism from the left and fending off sharp attacks in his first two Democratic primary debates.

AND HERE’S THE BEST NEWS FOR BIDEN: The poll showed that 49% of voters believe the former VP has the best chance of beating President DONALD TRUMP. And 50% of voters say they believe that electability is more important than nominating a candidate who “shares your views on issues.”

A few other observations … HUFFPOST’S MICHAEL MCAULIFF notes that ELIZABETH WARREN gained ground, going from 15% to 21%. And NYT’S ALEX BURNS made the good point that BERNIE SANDERS also went up, from 11% to 14%. So even though they are seen as each other’s chief political obstacles, both Warren and Sanders are on the upswing -- at least, that is, according to this latest Q poll.

The top results: Biden 32 (-2 since July), Warren 21 (+6), Sanders 14 (+3), Harris 7 (-5). The poll

SNEAK PEEK … BIDEN will speak in Burlington, Iowa, this afternoon at 2:30 Eastern time, and he will directly take on TRUMP’S response to the mass shootings in El Paso and Dayton, Ohio. Biden will say: “At moments when we have been tested most, American presidents have stepped up.

“President George H.W. Bush renouncing his NRA membership. President Clinton after Oklahoma City. President George W. Bush going to a mosque shortly after 9/11. President Obama after Charleston. Presidents who led … who opposed hate … chose to fight for what is best of the American character.

“We don’t have that today. We have a president who has aligned himself with the darkest forces in this nation. And that makes winning the battle for the soul of this nation that much harder.”

FURTHER, BIDEN will also say: “Trump offers no moral leadership; no interest in unifying the nation, no evidence the presidency has awakened his conscience in the least. Instead we have a president with a toxic tongue who has publicly and unapologetically embraced a political strategy of hate, racism and division.

“So it’s up to us. We’re living through a rare moment in this nation’s history. Where our president isn’t up to the moment. Where our president lacks the moral authority to lead. Where our president has more in common with George Wallace than George Washington. We are almost 330 million Americans who have to do what our president can’t. Stand together. Stand against hate. Stand up for what -- at our best -- this nation believes.”

THE PRESIDENT and first lady Melania Trump will travel to Dayton and El Paso today. His public schedule did not give any details about what the president will do there. But he tweeted that he will meet with first responders, law enforcement and victims.

THE PRESIDENT’S LEAD-IN MESSAGE … @realDonaldTrump at just before midnight: “Beto (phony name to indicate Hispanic heritage) O’Rourke, who is embarrassed by my last visit to the Great State of Texas, where I trounced him, and is now even more embarrassed by polling at 1% in the Democrat Primary, should respect the victims & law enforcement - & be quiet!”

-- EL PASO TIMES: “El Paso braces for Trump visit: Medical workers petition against visit, groups plan joint vigil”: “President Donald Trump was expected to be greeted with denunciations from some El Paso leaders when he visits Wednesday.

“U.S. Rep. Veronica Escobar, along with the Border Network for Human Rights and Women's March El Paso, plan a gathering at 12:30 p.m. in Washington Park. That's down the street from University Medical Center, where Trump is expected to meet with survivors of the shooting Saturday that left 22 people dead. Organizers say the event is meant to honor those killed, call for gun control and confront white supremacy. …

“Meanwhile, area medical workers began a petition asking University Medical Center, a hospital treating several of the wounded shooting victims, not to host Trump.” El Paso Times … The petition, which is signed by nearly 1,000 people

-- DAYTON DAILY NEWS: “Oregon District shooting: President Trump coming to Dayton today,” by Anthony Shoemaker and Jessica Wehrman: “[Ohio’s Republican Gov. Mike] DeWine said he think[s] it is ‘appropriate’ for President Trump to visit Dayton.

“‘I think it’s always appropriate for a governor or the president to go where there is sorrow, to go where people are hurting. My understanding of the visit is that’s what it’s focused on,’ DeWine said Tuesday in Columbus during an address unveiling proposals to fight gun violence. …

“Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley [D] said she will greet the president, but said his ‘rhetoric has been painful for many in our community and I think people should stand up and say they are not happy if they are not happy he’s coming,’ Whaley said. … U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, said he will not meet with the president during his visit to Dayton.” DDN

-- AP: “Dayton, site of latest mass shooting, warily awaits Trump”

Good Wednesday morning.

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GAINING STEAM … NYT’S SHERYL STOLBERG on A1: “‘Red Flag’ Gun Control Bills Pick Up Momentum With G.O.P. in Congress”: “Congressional Republicans, under intense pressure to respond to this weekend’s massacres, are coalescing around legislation to help law enforcement take guns from those who pose an imminent danger — a measure that, if signed into law, would be the most significant gun control legislation enacted in 20 years.

“Such ‘red flag’ laws might not be as momentous — or controversial — as the now-expired assault weapons ban or the instant background check system, both of which were enacted in 1994 as part of President Bill Clinton’s sprawling crime bill.” NYT

BUT, BUT, BUT … SENATE NOT COMING BACK, PER CNN’S MANU RAJU: “Senate GOP scrambles to find legislative response in the wake of two deadly shootings”: “On a private conference call Monday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell discussed the steps ahead with three committee chairmen and Sen. John Cornyn, whose state of Texas was home to one of the shootings from the weekend.

“What was not considered during the roughly 15-minute call: Bringing the Senate back to session during the August recess and moving on the House-passed universal background checks bill as Democrats have demanded, according to sources familiar with the private call.

“Instead, McConnell urged Cornyn and the committee chairmen -- Senate Health Chairman Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Senate Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Senate Commerce Chairman Roger Wicker of Mississippi -- to look into whether new legislation is warranted that would meet the goals laid out in President Donald Trump's Monday remarks and that could win bipartisan support.

“According to the sources familiar with the discussions, Alexander plans to look into whether any new remedies are needed in ensuring those with severe mental health issues don't have access to guns. Wicker will review whether any new legislation is needed in overseeing the content of violent video games, the sources said. Graham wants to advance so-called red flag legislation to empower localities to deny individuals access to guns if they pose a threat. Other legislative proposals could come out of these discussions as well, the sources said.” CNN

-- HEATHER CAYGLE and SARAH FERRIS: “Dems pressure congressional leaders to act on gun control and white supremacy”: “House Democrats are demanding Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell immediately return to Washington so the Senate can vote on gun control legislation in the wake of two deadly mass shootings over the weekend that left at least 31 people dead.

“The move comes as a separate group of Democrats, led by Reps. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.) and Veronica Escobar (D-Texas.), urged Congress to work on legislation to combat domestic terrorism — and suggested in a letter that Speaker Nancy Pelosi also cut recess short for House members.

“In a letter likely to be delivered Wednesday, Democrats are calling on the Kentucky Republican to bring up two House-passed measures that would strengthen federal background checks for gun purchases. The two bills passed the House in February, but McConnell has refused to hold a Senate vote on the legislation.” POLITICO

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WHAT REPUBLICANS SAY PRIVATELY -- REP. MIKE TURNER (R-OHIO) -- whose district includes Dayton -- put out a statement with this headline: “TURNER Supports Restricting Military Style Weapon Sales, Magazine Limits, & Red Flag Legislation”: “I strongly support the Second Amendment, but we must prevent mentally unstable people from terrorizing our communities with military style weapons. I will support legislation that prevents the sale of military style weapons to civilians, a magazine limit, and red flag legislation. The carnage these military style weapons are able to produce when available to the wrong people is intolerable.”

THE OBSTACLES TO ACTION: It doesn’t seem as if either the Senate or House is going to interrupt its six-week vacation to come back to pass gun control legislation. So here are a few challenges worth thinking about over this August.

-- KEEPING THE ISSUE ALIVE: Since no one is coming back immediately, keeping gun control in the front of the country’s consciousness could be difficult, Democrats tell us. The news moves incredibly quickly, so we could be three crises from now in early September, when Congress has to come back into session.

-- BACKGROUND CHECKS/AWB OR BUST? There’s no doubt Democrats are going to want to go further than Republicans when it comes to gun control legislation. But could Republicans be dragged to the negotiating table, and if they can’t, could Democrats settle for something small, like a red-flag bill? WaPo’s Paul Kane notes that background checks don’t have 60 in the Senate

-- GETTING/KEEPING TRUMP FOCUSED: The president has endorsed various forms of gun-control legislation before backing away. Can anyone keep him focused until September, when Washington snaps back into action?

THE GUN LOBBY … WAPO’S CAROL LEONNIG and BETH REINHARD: “NRA discussed purchasing luxury mansion for its chief executive to use, documents show”: “Documents indicate that the National Rifle Association planned to purchase a luxury mansion in the Dallas area last year for the use of chief executive Wayne LaPierre, according to two people familiar with the records.

“The discussions about the roughly $6 million purchase, which was not completed, are now under scrutiny by New York investigators. The transaction was slated to be made through a corporate entity that received a wire of tens of thousands of dollars from the NRA in 2018, according to the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the ongoing investigation. …

“One property that was considered, according to a person familiar with the plans, was a 10,000-square-foot French country estate with lakefront and golf course views. The four-bedroom, nine-bath home in a gated golf course community northwest of Dallas resembles a French chateau, with a stately boxwood-lined drive, a formal courtyard, vaulted ceilings and an antique marble fireplace, according to its online real estate listing.” WaPo … The 10,000-square-foot home

SCOOP -- TED HESSON: “Exclusive: Visa denials to poor Mexicans skyrocket under Trump’s State Department”: “The number of Mexicans refused immigrant visas to the U.S. because they might become dependent on government benefits skyrocketed under President Donald Trump, according to State Department data obtained by POLITICO.

“Between Oct. 1 and July 29, the State Department denied 5,343 immigrant visa applications for Mexican nationals on the grounds that the applicants were so poor or infirm that they risked becoming a ‘public charge,’ according to the statistics. That’s up from just seven denials for Mexican applicants in fiscal year 2016, the last full year under former President Barack Obama.

“The number of public charge denials for applicants from all nations also rose during the past year. Preliminary data obtained by POLITICO shows 12,179 visa rejections on public charge grounds through July 29 — which puts the department on pace to surpass last year’s total. The State Department disqualified only 1,033 people on public charge grounds in fiscal 2016.” POLITICO

2020 WATCH …

-- MARC CAPUTO in Las Vegas: “‘Warren has built a monster’: Inside the Democrats’ battle for Nevada”: “Kamala Harris hired a dream team of operatives. Joe Biden has solid establishment support. Bernie Sanders heads a volunteer army. And Julián Castro is seen as a ‘sleeper.’ But of the two dozen Democrats running for president, none matches Elizabeth Warren when it comes to campaign operation sprawl, crowd size or buzz among activists and operatives in Nevada.

“‘Elizabeth Warren just has a gigantic campaign,’ said Laura Martin, executive director of the social justice organization Progressive Leadership Alliance of Nevada. ‘There are counties all over rural areas where some campaigns are just doing tours, but she has staff there. And that was a strategy President Obama had in 2008 when he won Nevada.’ Another Democratic operative put it more bluntly: ‘Warren has built a monster.’” POLITICO

-- “Is ‘Bernie or Bust’ the Future of the Left?” by NYT’s Marc Tracy in Atlanta

-- FROM MORNING SCORE’S ZACH MONTELLARO: Andrew Yang raised more than $1 million from the end of last’s week debate through the end of the weekend, his campaign told Score. The campaign said it received donations from just under 38,400 unique donors, and that 34,600 donors were first-time donors. More than 87% of the money donated was from new donors.

SOME READING FOR KEVIN MCCARTHY ... L.A. TIMES’ SEEMA MEHTA: “Orange County, longtime GOP stronghold, now has more registered Democrats than Republicans”: “The county that nurtured Ronald Reagan’s conservatism and is the resting place of Richard Nixon is now home to 547,458 registered Democrats, compared with 547,369 Republicans, according to statistics released early Wednesday morning by the county Registrar of Voters. And the number of voters not aligned with a political party has surged in recent years, and now tops 440,770, or 27.4% of the county’s voters.” LAT

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TRUMP’S WEDNESDAY -- The president and Melania Trump will leave the White House at 9 a.m. Eastern time en route to Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton, Ohio. They will leave the base at 12:45 p.m. to travel to El Paso. They will depart Texas at 4:20 p.m. Central time to head back to Washington.

PLAYBOOK READS

PHOTO DU JOUR: Mississippi Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves celebrates Tuesday night after advancing to a runoff with Bill Waller in the gubernatorial primary election. | Rogelio V. Solis/AP Photo

XI GETTING READY FOR THE LONG HAUL … WSJ: “China Digs In to Outlast U.S. in Trade Dispute,” by Chao Deng and Chun Han Wong in Beijing: “The volley-for-volley trade war between China and the U.S. is accelerating at a time when Chinese President Xi Jinping can ill afford to make concessions, raising the likelihood of a protracted struggle between the world’s two biggest economies.

“Mr. Xi is ordering a celebratory run-up to the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic in October, an event that Communist Party watchers and media say will showcase him as a strong leader of a powerful nation. With his government struggling to rejuvenate a sluggish economy and quell antigovernment protests in Hong Kong, Mr. Xi has little leeway to take steps that would undercut his strongman image.” WSJ

-- TRUMP ALSO MIGHT BENEFIT … L.A. TIMES’ DON LEE: “[T]rump has strong incentives to drag out the fight: Behind a relatively strong U.S. economy and at least the chance of more credit stimulus from the Federal Reserve, he may benefit politically from continuing the confrontation with Beijing because it’s red meat for his political base.

“The potential loser in this international game of chicken is the U.S. economy. Both long term and short term, the White House is playing with fire — and it could end up burning Trump’s reelection bid.” LAT

THE BIG PICTURE -- “Trump’s China battle heads into the danger zone,” by Ben White, Adam Behsudi, and Doug Palmer: “President Donald Trump is pushing his bitter trade war with China into an aggressive and unpredictable new phase, bewildering Wall Street and risking an even bigger slowdown heading into a 2020 election in which the economy was supposed to be the president’s strongest selling point.

“The Trump administration on Monday evening drove the stand-off with the world’s second-largest economy to a new level, officially labeling China a currency manipulator for the first time in a quarter century, enraging Beijing and inviting further retaliation in a bare-knuckled fight that has already slammed U.S. farmers and helped drive American manufacturing close — or into — recession.” POLITICO

THE LATEST IN NORTH KOREA -- “Kim says North Korean launches were warning to U.S., South,” by AP’s Kim Tong-Hyung in Seoul, South Korea: “North Korea said Wednesday leader Kim Jong Un supervised a live-fire demonstration of newly developed, short-range ballistic missiles intended to send a warning to the United States and South Korea over their joint military exercises.

“The official Korean Central News Agency said two missiles launched from a western airfield flew across the country and over the area surrounding the capital, Pyongyang, before accurately hitting an island target off its eastern coast.” AP

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YEAH, SO ABOUT THOSE PEACE TALKS … “Bomb attack on Kabul police station fuels fears ahead of Afghan elections,” by WaPo’s Sayed Salahuddin and Sharif Hassan in Kabul: “A car bomb exploded outside a police station in the Afghan capital on Wednesday, killing at least 10 people and wounding nearly 100, officials and a security source said, heightening security concerns ahead of planned elections next month.

“Taliban insurgents claimed responsibility for the strike, which came a day after the militants and U.S. diplomats spoke of making progress in peace talks in Qatar.” WaPo

THE VIEW FROM MOSCOW -- Here’s what a Russian Foreign Ministry official had to say about Jon Huntsman’s tenure as U.S. ambassador to Russia, per the state news agency TASS: “This is a decision of the administration in Washington. Therefore, his performance should be assessed by the U.S. side as well. Huntsman is a professional. Unfortunately, the domestic political situation in the U.S. did not make it possible to realize the potential of the bilateral ties.”

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MEDIAWATCH … MICHAEL CALDERONE and ALEX THOMPSON: “Democrats’ frustration with the news media boils over”: “A liberal backlash against the news media’s coverage of Donald Trump and the 2020 race was already brewing when the New York Times published a five-word headline Monday night summarizing the president’s reaction to the mass shootings over the weekend: ‘Trump Urges Unity Vs. Racism.’ …

“[T]he furious response capped an outpouring of frustration lately from 2020 candidates, Democratic strategists and left-leaning columnists over everything from CNN’s handling of last week’s primary debate to coverage of race and white supremacists to the years-old gripe that news organizations are too willing to amplify Trump’s words.” POLITICO

-- DEAN BAQUET INTERVIEW: “I don’t believe our role is to be the leaders of the opposition party,” the NYT executive editor tells CJR’s Gabriel Snyder.

-- “Ads Pulled for Gory Universal Thriller ‘The Hunt’ in Wake of Mass Shootings,” by The Hollywood Reporter’s Kim Masters and Tatiana Siegel: “In the aftermath of mass shootings within days of one another that shocked and traumatized the nation, Universal is re-evaluating its strategy for the certain-to-be-controversial satire. The violent, R-rated film from producer Jason Blum's Blumhouse follows a dozen MAGA types who wake up in a clearing and realize they are being stalked for sport by elite liberals.” THR

-- “The Markup, a Tech News Site, Reinstalls Its Fired Editor as Part of a Fresh Start,” by NYT’s Marc Tracy

PLAYBOOKERS

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BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Bruce Friedrich, executive director and co-founder of the Good Food Institute. A trend he thinks doesn’t gets enough attention: “Antibiotic-resistant superbugs could spell the end of modern medicine, and the routine feeding of antibiotics to farm animals is a huge part of the problem. This is a big concern in the United States, but it’s an even bigger concern in China.” Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Robert Mueller is 75 ... Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) is 47 … Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) is 4-0 … Jonathan Swan, national political reporter at Axios, is 34 ... Reason’s Nick Gillespie is 56 … Ron Christie is 5-0 ... Matt Dornic, VP of comms and digital partnerships at CNN ... Andrew Gradison ... CNN’s Dan Merica is 31 … John Mayo … Ray Washburne ... Axios media reporter Sara Fischer is 29 (hat tip: Ben Chang) ... Kim Molstre … Elizabeth Brandler … Alan Keyes is 69 ... Scott Stossel, national editor of The Atlantic ... Kristin Leary ... POLITICO Europe’s Hans von der Burchard ... Alisa Wolking … Kimberly Ellis, partner at Monument Advocacy … MSNBC’s Hollie Tracz ... Jordan Heiliczer of the Asian American Hotel Owners Association ... Jenn Lore London ... Susan Feeney, partner at GMMB ... Caitlin Legacki of JPMorgan Chase … Mary Kathryn Steel … Juven Jacob ...

… former Louisiana Gov. Edwin Edwards is 92 … Brian Steel, EVP of PR for CNBC … Meredith Beaton Didier ... George Kelemen, Texas Retailers Association CEO, is 5-0, celebrating with family on Amelia Island, Fla. (h/t Justin Williamson) … Wesley Derryberry, an associate at Wilson Sonsini Goodrich and Rosati in D.C. … CC Leslie … James Whitlock … Caroline Huddleston Haley ... Felicia Knight ... Daniel Lerner ... UT historian H.W. Brands is 66 … Breanne Deppisch ... Côte d’Ivoire turns 59 on its Independence Day ... Eric Dinallo is 56 ... George Kelemen … Andrew DeSouza … Chad Phillips … TJ Londagin ... Alexis Glick ... Kirsten Borman ... Matt Lehner ... Ryan Pettit ... Anthony Ratekin ... Daryn Frischknecht ... Aissa Canchola ... Tamika Day ... Kimberly Willingham Hubbard ... Meredith Griffanti … Allyn Brooks-LaSure … Cynthia Wieland-Meyer … Shannon Sullivan … Kim Rogers (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)

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