

(I wrote this for my blog last week and thought I would transfer it to here as well. It's about Embiid, so it obviously has merit as far as the Sixers are concerned. It assumes that he returns healthily from his back/foot injuries. I hope others enjoy it.)

Everyone wants to be the Spurs. And really, who can blame them? San Antonio has had an unprecedented amount of success in the 21st century, running off a streak of 17 straight seasons with a winning percentage over .600. They've won five championships and succeeded in a small market town with no real advantages through free agency. Given their success since Gregg Popovich took over, it stands to reason that others would be flocking to emulate what has made them great.

But the secret to the Spurs' success isn't some arcane knowledge of X's and O's; nor is it superior player development; nor is it superior player evaluation (although they do all of those things well). Their secret is that they have a historically great two-way 7-footer who has been one of the most durable players ever.

In his prime, you could surround Tim Duncan with four replacement-level players, and the Spurs would still be good for 50 wins. In fact, they practically did in 2003 and won a championship anyway. That team was bad-- the second highest scorer was a 20-year old Tony Parker in his second season in the NBA. David Robinson was a walking corpse, averaging a meager 8 points and 8 rebounds a game. Manu wasn't Manu yet (He averaged 7 points in 20 minutes a game). Duncan still dragged that team to 60 wins and a championship, and he hauled them through a Western playoff bracket that included Shaq and Kobe in the second round and Dirk's Mavs in the third.

Duncan is not unique. As a dominant two-way center, he guaranteed his team's relevancy for every decade of his prime. The list of others who did the same is long, stretching all the way back to Bill Russell, Kareem, Hakeem, Patrick Ewing, Alonzo Mourning, Shaq, KG, and now Dwight Howard. Every dynastic team in history has been buoyed by a great two-way big man.*

*Michael Jordan's Bulls stand out as an exception, but in truth they prove the rule as well. Jordan was a dominant two-way player from his early years in the league, but as a wing player, couldn't impact the area nearest to the rim well enough to obtain a ring. The Bulls were unable to break through until 1991, when Pippen and Horace Grant had matured into stalwart players on both sides of the ball. Grant (and later, Rodman) was the rim protector Jordan needed to win his rings. Grant actually rated in the Top 10 in defensive win shares in 1991-92 and places in the Top 50 all time.

Even with the added importance of the three-point shot, the rim remains the most important area of the court. It's a simple matter of percentages. Even the best three point shooter is likely to miss 40% of his three point attempts when taking a completely open shot (a rare occurrence in the NBA). Assuming this 60% rate, that would make each possession that ends in an open three pointer from that player is worth 1.80 points per possession. However, if you take the same player and place him two feet from the hoop without a defense, he's likely to shoot 95-100%. Even taking the worse number, each possession ending in an open attempt at the rim is worth 1.90 points, which still rates better than an open three. In no reasonable scenario is a shot from three worth more than a shot under the basket.

This means that having someone who can both protect the rim and score easily around the rim is easily the most important part of building a contender. When MVP Derrick Rose went down for the first time two years ago, many assumed that the Bulls would become a lottery team without him. The truth is that he wasn't even the real MVP of his own team-- Joakim Noah was such an enormous presence on offense and defense that the Bulls won 45 and 48 games the next two years. The two-way center had a far more important effect on the team than the two-way point guard.

The secret to the Spurs' success for the last decade and a half hasn't been their front office or coaching. Both deserve kudos for the job that they've done, especially in assembling this most recent championship team, but once they got a 7-foot franchise player, the rest was easy. In a game in which the main objective is putting a ball into a hoop higher than any human is tall, the best players are always the largest humans. Athleticism, quickness, and skill play into that as well, but if all else is equal, the tie goes to the bigger player.

Duncan has won 50 games (or its percentage equivalent in lock-out shortened years) every year of his career. He has never missed the playoffs and he has only missed the second round three times. In his prime, the Spurs either won the title or they lost to Shaq's Lakers. If you have a player who can pass, score, rebound, and defend as well as Duncan does and who is also 7-feet tall and incredibly athletic, you have a very good shot at the title.

As he has aged, Spurs' management has had to make up for his decline in athleticism by putting a more balanced team around him. Everyone on the team can defend his position, create shots, pass effectively, and shoot jumpers. The superior balance of the team has extended Duncan's prime, but even had that not been the case, he would have remained an effective NBA player far beyond what a normal decline would have predicted. It's part of being able to fully dominate the rim on both ends of the floor-- he will always have value in the NBA. Look at other great 7-footers-- Kareem played until he was 42; Shaq and Hakeem until they were 39; Ewing played until he was 40.When you are as skilled and as competent on both sides of the ball as these players are, and if you're 7-feet tall, it's easy to find a role on an NBA team.

Everyone wants to be the Spurs. And all they have to do is find a two-way, franchise center.

**************

Nobody wants to be the Sixers. Talking heads have been screaming about the ways that they disgrace the sport for two years. Philadelphia represents everything that is wrong with the NBA. By willfully stripping their team down to the bare bones in order to optimize their chances at a high draft pick, the Sixers have put out laughably bad teams the last two years. The league's office even attempted to reform the lottery as a response to the Sixers' blatant tanking, hoping to remove much of the incentive of picking at the top of the draft.

But lost amid all of the hubbub over whether Kentucky would beat the Sixers, or if this Philadelphia team can break the record for most losses in a season, is a simple reality: Everyone wants to be the Spurs, but the Sixers are the closest to actually being them.

Philadelphia picked up Kansas' big man Joel Embiid with the third pick in last year's draft. Embiid was seen as the consensus number one pick a week before the draft, but concerns over a broken navicular bone caused him to drop two spots to the Sixers. The general response to the Sixers' framed it within the context of the 2014-15 season-- the Sixers picked two players (Dario Saric at #10) who can't contribute to this season because they want to continue to have overwhelming odds at a high pick in the 2015 draft.

George Karl said at the time:

"Philly continues to baffle me. It doesn't seem like the Sixers are making any moves to improve right now... You play the game of basketball to win and to compete in an intense way. Joel Embiid wasn't a bad pick, but we're not sure how soon he can contribute. Overall it seems as though they make very few decisions based on winning in the near term."

Even the people who praised the move largely missed the point. Chad Ford wrote:

"Embiid, on pure talent and potential, may be the best prospect in the draft. Had Embiid been healthy and had Saric been available to come to the NBA this year, they would get an A. However, Embiid is likely out the whole season recovering from foot surgery. Saric...won't play in the NBA for a couple of seasons. How do you rebuild without your talent on the floor?"





To answer Ford's question, you don't need to if your "talent" is a dominant two-way player. And make no mistake, that's what Joel Embiid is. Ford was understating his importance when he said Embiid "may be the best prospect in the draft." Embiid is a generational talent. Only Anthony Davis was on his level as an impact player on offense and defense.

Embiid was overshadowed during his time in Kansas because of the hype surrounding Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker, but his impact was unmistakeable during his lone year in Lawrence. His per game averages weren't that impressive, but once his statistics are adjusted for 40 minutes of production he averaged an insane 19 points, 14 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 4.5 blocks. To put that in perspective, his points, rebounds, and assists per minute were all better than Anthony Davis's at the same age. There is no aspect of basketball at which Embiid does not excel. He is an elite scorer, rebounder, passer, and rim protector all rolled into one. History has shown that players like that make your team competitive all by themselves.

You can see Embiid's impact from a more basic perspective as well. With the 7-footer on the floor, Kansas went 21-7 and looked like a legitimate title contender. With him out of the lineup, they went 3-3 to close out the season, and lost in the second round of both of their tournaments. Without his presence around the rim, Stanford's two 6'10 big men combined to shoot 9-15 from the floor and scored 25 points. Georges Niang, a 6'8 power forward who struggles to score against the type of height and length Embiid brings to the table, propelled Iowa State to an upset in the Big 12 tournament.

On a more micro level, his net rating (Team points scored per 100 possessions - Team points allowed per 100 possessions) was +25.7.



There's nothing that Embiid cannot do on a basketball court. He creates shots for himself and for his teammates. He's smart enough and a good enough passer that he can find the open man out of a double team. He is bigger and stronger than almost everyone in the NBA, and just as quick, mobile and athletic as players who are smaller than him. He rebounds, blocks shots, and protects the rim. He does everything Tim Duncan has done for the San Antonio Spurs for the last 17 years.



Joel Embiid may not be able to stay healthy. In that regard, picking him third in a very deep draft was a risk. But the reality is that if he does avoid injury, there is almost no chance that he won't become a dominant player. He commands the paint on both sides of the floor and no other part of the basketball court is as important as the paint. Chad Ford (and almost everyone else) trivialized the importance of the Sixers' having picked him last year. Joel Embiid "may be the best prospect in the draft" is an understatement. He was far and away the best prospect in that draft.

We've all probably watched this, but it bears repeat viewing just to see the way in which Embiid controls both sides of the floor. Oklahoma State was absolutely helpless against him.

Embiid OSU

(Click the link for video)

With his size, skill, and strength, there is no reason that his ability won't translate to the NBA. Assuming he is able to stay healthy after recovering from his foot injury, Philadelphia has found a premier two-way big.

Everyone wants to be the Spurs. Thanks to Embiid, the 76ers may actually be one day.