The National Hurricane Center is giving this disturbance a 50 percent chance of becoming at least a tropical depression within the next five days, and model forecasts support that outlook. No model is presently forecasting this disturbance to become a hurricane, but most do bring it up to tropical storm intensity within five days.

The disturbance is developing as easterly winds from the Caribbean converge with southwesterly winds from the East Pacific in the waters north of Panama, providing large-scale spin that can serve as the embryo for tropical storm development.

But exactly where this potential storm may go is a wild card. Simply put, the track forecast is a mess.

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There is not a lot in the way of steering currents in this disturbance’s environment, so it may just linger for days, dumping rain on nearby countries such as Nicaragua and Honduras. Alternatively, one of the jet stream troughs digging down into the Gulf of Mexico may be strong enough to pull it northward toward Cuba and Florida. At this point, both scenarios seem equally likely. If it does get snagged by a trough, it would pass over Cuba and possibly south Florida this weekend, although likely as nothing to be overly concerned about.

Should this develop and attain tropical storm status, the next name on this year’s list of storm names is Philippe. Philippe is still an original name from the 1981 list, and it has been used only twice before: in 2005 and 2011.

This time of year, the western Caribbean Sea is the place to watch for development.

Historically, some of the most intense hurricanes ever recorded were born there in late October — a strong reminder that hurricane season is most definitely not over yet. The map below shows tracks of the 19 known major hurricanes that developed during the two-week period from Oct. 20 through Nov. 3.

Examining this map, two features stand out: 1. They tend to form in the western Caribbean and 2. They head toward the north, putting Cuba and Florida at the greatest risk. In fact, South Florida is more likely to get hit by a hurricane during October than in any other month.

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Several of these late-season storms shown on the map reached Category 5 intensity: Wilma 2005, Mitch 1998, Hattie 1961, the 1932 Cuba Hurricane and the 1926 Havana Hurricane.

Incidentally, today is the 12-year anniversary of Hurricane Wilma’s landfall on the Florida peninsula. It made landfall just south of Naples as a Category 3 hurricane with 120-mph sustained winds. Just five days before, it was a Category 5 beast with 185-mph sustained winds and the record-lowest central pressure in the Atlantic of 882 millibars.

Up until six weeks ago, Wilma was the last major hurricane to hit Florida, but, incredibly, both Wilma and Irma made landfall on tiny Marco Island as Category 3 hurricanes!