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WALES’ population is set to increase by 12% by 2033 it was disclosed yesterday – the equivalent of a city bigger than Cardiff.

In just 24 years, the country’s population will increase by 350,000 – hitting 3.35m million in 2033, the Office for National Statistics said.

But although more births than deaths are predicted throughout the period, inward migration – from both the rest of the UK and further afield – is the key reason for the projected population growth.

Wales’ population is predicted to cross the three million mark for the first time by the middle of next year and is projected to increase to 3.14m by 2018.

Across the UK the total will hit 71.6 million in 2033 from just over 61 million now. Of those, 60.7 million will be living in England.

Home Secretary Alan Johnson said earlier this year that he “did not lie awake at night” worrying about the prospect.

All four nations which make up the United Kingdom can expect to see their populations grow over the next 24 years. Compared to Wales’ projected 12% rise, there are predicted increases of 18% for England, 14% for Northern Ireland and 7% for Scotland.

“If the projection is realised, England will have the population of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland combined,” Guy Goodwin, ONS director of population statistics, said.

The number of children in Wales is expected to decrease slightly over the next four years, with around 1% fewer in 2013.

It is then projected to gradually increase to a peak in around 2027 before decreasing slightly over the following six years.

The number of pensioners, however, is predicted to increase throughout the period despite the change to the state pension age. Between 2010 and 2020, state pension age will change to 65 for both sexes, and from 2024 will gradually change in stages to 68.

Yet, despite this, there are expected to be 185,000 more pensioners in 2033 than there are currently – a rise of 29% and potentially a massive problem for an Assembly Government already struggling to provide social services to an ageing population.

A particularly sharp increase in the number of pensioners is expected from 2026 onwards due to the impact of the large number of people born in the 1960s reaching retirement age.

Shadow local government minister Darren Millar said: “This will put huge pressure on local services and social services in particular, not to mention the likely changes in housing needs. All of this needs to be taken into account now, not in 24 years’ time. The Assembly Government must recognise this and plan its budgets now to ensure adequate resources are available and pensioners receive the high quality services they need and deserve.”

The population of Wales is expected to become gradually older with the average age rising from the current 41.1 to 44.2 in 2033. This is due to a combination of a higher life expectancy and fewer children being born.

It will still remain below the average for the UK as a whole, however, and Liberal Democrat MP for Cardiff Central Jenny Willott said yesterday: “Given the Welsh industrial legacy, you could expect geographical differences in life expectancy for older generations. But these figures suggest that the gap in life expectancy at birth between Wales and other parts of the UK has actually grown, not shrunk.”

The biggest driver of population, however, is migration. The Office for National Statistics’ long-term forecast predicts a net migration into Wales of 10,500 a year from 2014 – 7,500 from other parts of the UK and 3,000 from elsewhere.

Shadow Westminster immigration minister Damian Green said: “This shows how irresponsible Alan Johnson was when he said in July that he did not lie awake at night worrying about a population of 70 million.

“The failure of Labour to control immigration has left us in this difficult position.

“A Conservative government would introduce a limit on the numbers allowed to come here to work, as well as other measures to fight illegal immigration.”

Peter Madden, chief executive of Forum for the Future, said: “Population growth will put greater pressure on our public services and increase competition for housing.

“Protecting our environment and meeting climate change targets will become even harder. And unless it is handled properly, social cohesion will suffer.

“These projections are a wake-up call for politicians. They must start planning now to manage population growth in a way which benefits people and the environment and which respects our obligations to the international community.”