Three new releases will hit multiplexes on a traditionally slow post Memorial Day weekend. Those releases are STX’s drama Adrift, BH Tilt’s thriller Upgrade, and Paramount’s comedy Action Point. Of the three, it looks as though Adrift will open highest, though it wouldn’t be at all surprising if none of them hit $10 million. Meanwhile, Solo looks to take a tumble in round two.

Adrift is the latest nationwide release for relatively new distributor STX Entertainment, who’s releasing the $35 million drama into a massive 3,015 locations. June has become a popular target for ocean themed films, with titles like 47 Meters Down and The Shallows both overperforming. Of course, those were shark oriented thrillers, whereas Adrift focuses on the romance and dramatic elements, making them less than perfect comparisons. Based on tracking, the title is targeting a weekend of around $10-11 million, which wouldn’t be a great start considering the budget and scale of release.

Next up is Action Point, the Johnny Knoxville slapstick comedy and spiritual successor to the Jackass franchise. Strangely, the marketing has put no emphasis on the fact that the events are based on a true story, instead showcasing a number of violent gags that made the Jackass brand successful, albeit done in the style of a traditional narrative and ditching the documentary style of previous entries. Tracking has gone down exponentially in the past few weeks, as social media tracking came in on par with previous June flops like Popstar. Unfortunately, a debut of under $5 million is looking more and more possible, which would be a terrible start for the $19 million release.

Finally, Upgrade, which made a splash at its SXSW premiere and subsequently scored strong reviews from critics. BH Tilt has decided to release the sci-fi action comedy into a fairly wide 1,457 locations, putting it on par with titles like The Belko Experiment. That films $4 million would be more of a best case scenario, as tracking has unfortunately placed it at around $2-3 million. While no budget is currently available, it’s hard to imagine it costing more than $5 million or so, so anything above $3 million can’t be considered a huge loss.

Among holdovers, the respective drops of Solo and Deadpool 2 will likely be the biggest headlines for the weekend, as Solo looks to drop over 65% this weekend based on previous Memorial Day comparisons. Considering the film had a massive 31% drop from Friday to Saturday, it will be interesting to see how the traditionally front loaded Star Wars weekend plays out over a summer release, without the boost of Christmas and New Years.

Predictions

Solo – $28 million Deadpool 2 – $21 million Avengers: Infinity War – $10.5 million Adrift – $9.8 million Book Club – $6.2 million Action Point – $4.3 million

Upgrade – $2.1 million