Mr Rudd had led Mr Abbott 45 to 40 on the same question in July, shortly after taking over from Julia Gillard. Potential winners are grinners: Tony Abbott joins a media bus group during his campaign visit to Brisbane, as an opinion poll brought good news for the Coalition. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen On the question of which party voters expected to win the election, 57 per cent predicted the Coalition would win compared to just 31 per cent picking Labor. But Labor still leads by a convincing 20 points on the key indicator of education, 56-36, and has narrowed the gap to the Coalition on the hot-button issue of boat people. A 20-point deficit on asylum-seeker management in July has dropped to just 8 points, with 39per cent preferring Labor's toughened approach to 47 per cent who still favour the Coalition's suite of policies.

Labor's primary vote support, which had climbed as high as 39per cent after Mr Rudd replaced Ms Gillard, has dropped back again by 2 points to be 37 per cent, and is now in danger of slipping further as voters overwhelmingly back the Coalition on the central question of who is the superior economic manager. Tony Abbott and his daughters visit the Ekka in Brisbane. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen The Coalition's primary support improved by 2 points since the last poll to be 46 per cent. The poll was taken before Mr Rudd unveiled his "captain's pick" of Peter Beattie in the Queensland LNP seat of Forde, which Labor hopes will energise its campaign in the Sunshine State and beyond. On the question of who is better able to manage the economy, Mr Abbott has opened a potentially unbridgeable 18 point lead with 56 per cent of respondents favouring the Coalition to Labor on 38 per cent. That represents a 7-point widening in the last month, during which Labor unveiled its shock $33 billion write-down in expected revenue, flagged rising unemployment and abandoned plans to balance the budget by 2015-16.

The poll comes as fresh questions arise over the Coalition's budget strategy, with Labor saying it has blown a $1.5 billion hole in Mr Abbott's claimed $17billion worth of savings. The Coalition's primary support improved by 2 points since the last poll to be 46 per cent. Labor has pulled out all the stops to put a dent in Coalition credibility over budget management in the first days of the campaign, claiming its sums do not add up. But the poll, taken during a week dominated by an interest rate cut and an escalating Labor scare campaign claiming the opposition wants to extend the GST to food, suggests voters so far are simply not buying it. In other findings in the poll, Mr Rudd's net approval rating slipped by 7 points to be just in positive territory with 48 per cent approving and 47 per cent disapproving. Loading

Mr Abbott's net approval remained in negative territory on minus 7, however, with a disapproval rating of 52 per cent to an approval rating of 45 per cent that represented an 8-point improvement. The gap between the pair on the separate index of preferred prime minister also narrowed, with Mr Rudd scoring a healthy 50 per cent, down 5 points, but Mr Abbott improving slightly, up 1 point to 42. with Bianca Hall