Who has the edge in Nashville transit vote as election arrives?

After a contentious campaign that's seen Nashville furiously debate the future of transportation in the city, a referendum on funding a new transit system is finally here.

Neither side is making any grand predictions on the outcome at this late stage, but some political observers give a slight edge to the opposition.

Forecasting the election has been a struggle given the absence of any prior election like it, early voting turnout far higher than most predicted, and the set of unusual dynamics ahead of the historic vote, including the March resignation of Mayor Megan Barry, the project's onetime top supporter.

Voting runs from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Tuesday in the local primary election and transit referendum. Three days later, early voting kicks off Friday in the special mayoral election triggered by Barry's resignation.

The transit proposal, backed by Mayor David Briley after Barry first introduced it last fall, would raise four taxes, including the sales tax, to pay for light rail, rapid bus, bus service expansion and other transit improvements.

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The cost would be $5.4 billion to build while requiring long-term revenue of nearly $9 billion, once other costs are factored in such as interest and operational expenses.

More than 59,000 people voted early, including more than 11,600 on the final day of early voting, putting the overall vote total on pace to reach around 95,000.

Multiple internal polls over the past month by candidates who had explored bids for mayor and other candidates have shown the transit referendum losing by anywhere from 6 to 14 percentage points.

Will divisions in base cost transit supporters?

But some observers are wary about putting too much stock in the polls because predicting who will vote in the transit referendum is tricky.

Still, there's a general feeling among neutral followers that the referendum is more likely to fail than pass.

Pat Nolan, a veteran Nashville political analyst for WTVF-TV, said the final day's spike may have been the result of organized get-out-the-vote efforts from the pro-side.

Nevertheless, he cited evidence to suggest the pro-transit side could finish slightly behind in early voting, meaning they would need to reverse the outcome on Tuesday.

"I'm leaning towards thinking it will not pass," Nolan said. "But you have to remember in elections, it's not what the mood of the community is, it's the mood of the voters who get out and vote.

"Among the proponents, I see some divisions among the groups that you would thought would be more solidly behind it."

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He pointed to Nashville's nine Metro Council districts that are predominantly African-American as possible bellwethers for the election as a whole.

John Geer, a political scientist from Vanderbilt University, which oversaw a poll in early March that found the referendum up by 14 percentage points, said it's hard to predict how the race will go because it's all about turnout.

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"You certainly hear lots of anecdotal evidence about the anti-transit people having an upperhand, but it's just that — it's anecdotal," Geer said. "So, I'd be surprised if it's not close.

"Part of the problem for the pro-transit people is that the messaging I don't think has been very effective," he said. "But I think there's just a lot of people who think we need to do something about transit. Even if it goes down, I suspect some version will come back up under different messaging within two years because something's got to be done."

Both sides say they're optimistic

Leaders from the Nashville For Transit Coalition and NoTax4Tracks, the transit opposition group, both claim high turnout helps them. They're each planning to continue door canvassing and phone banking and television commercials through the finish line.

Equipped with more than twice as much financial resources, the transit coalition — backed by the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce and business heavyweights — has outspent NoTax4Tracks overwhelmingly on television.

The transit coalition raised more than $383,000 between April 1 and April 21, giving them nearly $2.9 million for the entire campaign. NoTax4Tracks raised $205,000 during that same time, raising their fundraising to nearly $1.2 million overall.

Transit proponents acknowledge they got off to a slow start during the early voting period, but they say they grew more encouraged as the days continued.

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The transit coalition has spent much of their campaign material in the final weeks of the campaign trying energize their primarily Democratic base.

Above all, they've slammed the anonymous donors that have helped bankroll the NoTax4Tracks campaign — "dark money," they call it — as well as the involvement from Republican activist and Nashville auto dealer Lee Beaman.

"We're optimistic and enthusiastic about where we'll be tomorrow," transit coalition spokesman Kelly Brockman said, adding the pro-transit campaign team knocked on about 9,000 doors over the weekend.

Efforts have been geared toward getting people to the polls

"The big push is go vote, go vote, go vote — of course, for (transit)," she said.

Early voting indicated solid turnout among Republicans, who polling has suggested are more likely to vote against the plan.

Even though there are no Republican candidates in any local race, 24 percent of voters asked for a Republican and transit ballot during early voting, while another 13 percent asked for a transit-only ballot.

Sixty-three percent of voters asked for a Democratic ballot — but that likely includes some Republicans who wanted to vote on races such as judge, sheriff and Davidson County court clerks.

The transit plan is believed to be more popular among young voters than old voters. But an analysis from Harpeth Strategies, a firm led by Councilman Dave Rosenberg, found that 35 percent of voters have been 65 or older while 34 percent of the vote has come from voters ages 50 to 64.

Rosenberg's firm also polled 345 of the people who voted early, finding 60 percent of them voted against the referendum and 38 percent for it.

"I'm comfortable where we are. I'm hopeful, but I'm not making any predictions," said Jeff Eller, a consultant for NoTax4Tracks, a political action committee boosted by mainly conservative donors.

"I'm confident we've done what we've needed to do to get our message across, but I also know that we've been vastly outspent, not only in television, but the ground game as well."

Briley: Election 'opportunity to take action'

Darden Copeland, managing director of Calvert Street Group, a consultant for the transit coalition, said the referendum has attracted people who might not usually vote in the county's May primary election.

"When those people vote, they tend to pull the ballot for transit," Copeland said. "We've always said high turnout is good for us"

He said the coalition has identified an additional 11,000 people who have said they support transit but have not voted yet. He said there's another 15,000 people who said they are likely to support transit but have not voted.

"The only poll that matters is the one on election day," he said. "I think it's going to be closer than we wanted it to be, but I'm confident that Nashville will rise to the occasion. At the end of the day, they realize traffic isn't getting any better."

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A statement from Briley — who replaced Barry as the top salesperson for the project when Barry resigned — did not make a election night prediction.

"Tomorrow we all get to vote on the future of the city," Briley said. "We all know something has to be done. Nashville is at the traffic breaking point, and the region is growing by almost 100 people a day. Tomorrow is the opportunity to take action and move forward without gridlock."

Reach Joey Garrison at 615-259-8236, jgarrison@tennessean.com and on Twitter @joeygarrison.

Election day

Davidson County voters get to decide on raising four taxes to pay for a $5.4 billion transit plan. Local county primaries also are on the ballot.

Polls open: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Don't forget: Bring your photo ID in order to cast a ballot

Results: Check Tennessean.com Tuesday night for complete coverage.