Rem Rieder

USA TODAY

It was a brutal night for the media narrative, the polls, the pundits, the conventional wisdom.

The Democratic presidential contest was pretty much over, the story went. Bernie Sanders had peaked, the Hillary Clinton juggernaut was in full command, Clinton would beat Sanders by 20 points in Michigan. Game over. Time for the party to unite and for Clinton to pivot toward the general election and the looming threat posed by Donald Trump.

Except, wait. The Republican establishment at long last had come together to take the party back. Mitt Romney — Mitt Romney!! — had ridden to the rescue. Trump was slowing down, his national lead was shrinking.

Then, on Tuesday, those pesky voters got in the way.

Turns out Clinton's double-digit lead in Michigan was gossamer. Sanders won the state, albeit narrowly, cutting into Clinton's overwhelming lead with black voters while maintaining his dominance among young voters and prevailing among independents.

Postpone the coronation. Sanders isn't going away quite yet. Cue the Rumsfeldian long, hard slog.

Top takeaways from Michigan, Mississippi and Tuesday's other contests

The punditocracy seemed convinced that a couple of Sanders moments in the Sunday night debate — "Excuse me, I'm talking," his ghetto gaffe — would turn off Michiganders. Apparently not so much.

Michigan, of course, doesn't change the overall shape of the contest. The math continues to favor Clinton. Her delegate lead is substantial, and she won big in Mississippi.

But make no mistake: Michigan was an embarrassment for her, and a shock. And next week's battles include some that appear to be on favorable terrain for the Vermont socialist, in states such as Ohio and Missouri.

And Trump? All the establishment angst, the stop-Trump PACs, the Romney intervention, the agonized David Brooks columns can't make him go away.

The Trumpmobile had little trouble navigating those establishment speed bumps. Trump went three for four, handily winning Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii while Sen. Ted Cruz prevailed in Idaho.

Less successful were the cable networks, which couldn't bring themselves to tear away from The Donald's endless and truly bizarre infomercial — Trump steaks! Trump wine! Paul O'Neill! — even when Clinton started speaking. CNN's Ed O'Keefe says given how things were going in Michigan, that might have been just fine with Clinton. But seriously!

Analysis: Trump rolls, as Sanders surprises Clinton in Michigan

As you may have noticed, this is not the first time that the media political narrative has been way off. There are a number of things at play here. One is the obsession with polls, the ubiquitous polls. This isn't new, but there seem to be so many of them this time, and they play a — excuse the expression — huge role in shaping the analysis. They are valuable, but they are not gospel, as Michigan reminds us.

At best they are reflections of how people are thinking at a moment in time, not predictors of how things will play out. But it's easy to forget that, and we often do.

Throw in the very high interest in this year's campaign, particularly among Republicans, whose voter turnout is off the charts; the inexhaustible appetites of cable and digital for more, more, more; and the very human yearning to tie things up neatly, and you get what we have.

Networks refuse to dump Trump for Hillary

Tuesday night's results also contained very bad news for a candidate who has figured prominently in another seemingly misguided piece of narrative, Sen. Marco Rubio. Remember all the talk about the "lanes"? No, not Diane Lane, Penny Lane, Nathan Lane and Night Train Lane, but the idea that there was an establishment lane to the nomination, and Rubio had a good chance to occupy it.

Rubio has been a darling of the politico/media complex. As recently as early February, Politico ran a story headlined, "GOP establishment rallies behind Rubio."

Trouble is, Rubio has drastically and consistently underperformed at the polls, winning only in Minnesota and Puerto Rico. Tuesday was his nadir, as he couldn't crack double figures in Michigan or Mississippi. He's holding out for a win in his home state of Florida next Tuesday, but his prospects there don't seem great.

But, then, you know those polls ...

Follow USA TODAY columnist Rem Rieder on Twitter @remrieder

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