2019 FifthQuarter FSU Season Preview

It might still be sweltering outside, but one thing is for certain – people in garnet and gold are practicing football and we’re less than a month from taming the Boise St. Broncos in Jacksonville.

Feels good, don’t it?

We’ve suffered through the first bowl-less winter, spring, and summer that most of us have ever known. We’ve gotten our just (and unjust) desserts from the rival gators and canes (uncapitalized out of spite). We’ve fired some coaches and gotten new ones. We’ve gotten rid of some players (#ByeFelicia) and brought in some dudes.

Are you as ready for football as I am?

In this preview, we’ll go through the predictions of our staff as well as our community. We’ll also look at our opponents’ offseasons and how that affects the prediction. You ready? Let’s go.

FSU vs. Boise State (Jacksonville, FL)

8/31, 7:00pm

Returning: WR CT Thomas, TE John Bates, LT Ezra Cleveland, LG John Molchon, Garrett Larson, RG Eric Quevedo, NT Sonatane Lui, Nickel Kekaula Kaniho, CB Avery Williams, S Kekoa Nawahine, S DeAndre Pierce.

Leaving: QB Brett Rypien, RB Alexander Mattison, WR Sean Modster, A.J. Richardson, RT Andres Preciado, DE Durrant Miles, STUD Jabril Frazier, DT David Moa, WLB Blake Whitlock, MLB Tyson Maeva, Tony Lashley, CB Tyler Horton, K Haden Hoggarth, P Quinn Skillin.

Advanced Stats – Projected Record: 9.8-2.2

2018 Boise State:

Final S&P+: 28th

Offensive S&P+: 12th

Defensive S&P+: 38th

Offensive Success Rate: 12th

Offensive Points/Possession: 101st

Defensive Success Rate: 46th

Defensive Points/Possession: 82nd

2019 Boise State:

Projected S&P+: 24th

Offensive S&P+: 41st

Defensive S&P+: 22nd

We start and end the season quite the same way – playing a team who likes to wear orange and blue. ugh. Horrible. Boise State loses a lot off of their 2018 squad which finished 1st in the Mountain West (regular season) with a 10-3 record. They lost to Fresno State in the championship game and got rained out in their bowl game against Boston College. The ‘Noles should be glad that they’re first up on the docket, as the Broncos will be breaking in new signal-caller Chase Cord. They also lose 1900 receiving yards from receivers Sean Modster and A.J. Richardson and nearly 1600 all-purpose yards from tailback Alexander Mattison. Their defense also loses quite a bit from all 3 levels, but projects to be better on the whole.

FSU vs. Louisiana-Monroe

9/7, 5:00PM

Returning: QB Caleb Evans, LT Trace Ellison, LG Devin Jackson, Jr., C Bobby Reynolds, RG T.J. Fiailoa, RT Eastwood Thomas, TE Josh Pederson, DE Sam Miller, Donald Louis, Jr., DT Jaylen Veasley, P Mark Deaves

Leaving: RB Derrick Gore, WR Marcus Green, D’Marius Gillespie, NT Derion Ford, WILB David Griffith, BUCK Collin Turner, CB Rhoy Williams, Marcus Hubbard, S Wesley Thompson, K Craig Ford

Advanced Stats – Projected Record 5.1-6.9

2018 LA-Monroe:

Final S&P+: 105th

Offensive S&P+: 87th

Defensive S&P+: 108th

Offensive Success Rate: 32nd

Offensive Points/Possession: 34th

Defensive Success Rate: 111th

Defensive Points/Possession: 80th

2019 LA-Monroe:

Projected S&P+: 103rd

Offensive S&P+: 91st

Defensive S&P+: 105th

Regardless of how we start against Boise State, we should notch a win against the Warhawks, who went 6-6 out of the Sun Belt. They project to be the 103rd best team in the nation this year. While returning their QB and all 5 offensive linemen, they do take a step back on the outside, losing their most explosive and consistent receiver. They’ll also lose some decent pieces on defense. All in all, just be thankful it’s not a noon game.







FSU @ Virginia

9/14, 7:30PM

Returning: QB Bryce Perkins, WR Joe Reed, Dejon Brissett, Hasise Dubois, LT Ryan Nelson, LG Chris Glaser, C Dillon Reinkensmeyer, DE Mandy Alonso, Eli Hanbach, NT Jordan Redmond, SLB Charles Snowden, BUCK/MLB Zane Zandier, BUCK Robert Snyder, CB Bryce Hall, FS Joey Blount

Leaving: SB Jordan Ellis, HB Olamide Zaccheaus, TE Evan Butts, LG R.J. Proctor, RG Jake Fieler, RT Marcus Applefield, NT Dylan Thomson, WLB Chris Peace, CB Tim Harris, Sabre (SS) Juan Thornhill

Advanced Stats – Projected Record 7.6-4.4

2018 Virginia:

Final S&P+: 42nd

Offensive S&P+: 62nd

Defensive S&P+: 31st

Offensive Success Rate: 38th

Offensive Points/Possession: 98th

Defensive Success Rate: 21st

Defensive Points/Possession: 62nd

2019 Virginia:

Projected S&P+: 41st

Offensive S&P+: 71st

Defensive S&P+: 23rd

I hate orange and blue. The colors aren’t complementary, no matter what your art teacher said. This game will likely be the yardstick by which FSU’s season will be judged. Virginia loses a good bit off an average offense, including a thousand-yard receiver. They do like to run their QB, so FSU will need to look out for Bryce Perkins. Their defense stands to get better, even after losing a couple of pieces. We’ll definitely see if the changes made in the offseason stand up to a good team.







FSU vs Louisville

9/21, TBD

Returning: QB Jawon Pass, Malik Cunningham, RB Hassan Hall, WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TuTu Atwell, LT Mekhi Becton, C Cole Bentley, T.J. McCoy, DE Amonte Caban, Tabarius Peterson, DT G.G. Robinson, ILB T.J. Holl, C.J. Avery, Dorian Etheridge, OLB P.J. Blue, Nick Okeke, CB Cornelius Sturghill, P.J. Mbanasor, FS Khane Pass

Leaving: WR Jaylen Smith, TE Micky Crum, LG Linwood Foy, RG Kenny Thomas, RT Lukayus McNeil, DT Henry Famurewa, SS Dee Smith

Advanced Stats – Projected Record 4-8

2018 Louisville:

Final S&P+: 98th

Offensive S&P+: 102nd

Defensive S&P+: 99th

Offensive Success Rate: 102nd

Offensive Points/Possession: 108th

Defensive Success Rate: 128th

Defensive Points/Possession: 35th

2019 Louisville:

Projected S&P+: 87th

Offensive S&P+: 86th

Defensive S&P+: 78th

This year’s Louisville team doesn’t look like it’s going to be the dumpster fire it was last year. Gone is Rick Pitino Bobby Petrino, in comes Scott Satterfield from Appalachian State. Who knows? Maybe Satterfield will be able to decide on a quarterback. If so, then maybe he’ll be able to deal with new faces on the right side of the O-Line. Maybe the defense will progress more, as it’s returning most of its key parts. If FSU doesn’t end up sending the Cards home unhappy, then we have bigger problems than we know. Look for this one to be less close than last year’s inexplicable coaching decision/gift.

FSU vs NC State

9/28, TBD

Returning: RB Ricky Person, Jr., WR Emeka Emezie, Tabari Hines (via Wake & Oregon), RG Joshua Fedd-Jackson, RT Justin Witt, DE James Smith-Williams, DT Larrell Murchison

Leaving: QB Ryan Finley, RB Reggie Gallaspy, Jr., WR Kelvin Harmon, Jakobi Meyers, LT Tyler Jones, LG Terronne Prescod, C (Rimington Trophy Winner) Garrett Bradbury, DE Darian Roseboro, NT Eurndraus Bryant, LB Germaine Pratt

Advanced Stats – Projected Record 7.4-4.6

2018 NC State:

Final S&P+: 35th

Offensive S&P+: 29th

Defensive S&P+: 54th

Offensive Success Rate: 20th

Offensive Points/Possession: 89th

Defensive Success Rate: 62nd

Defensive Points/Possession: 91st

2019 NC State:

Projected S&P+: 47th

Offensive S&P+: 61st

Defensive S&P+: 41st

Ryan Finley is with the Bengals, and (apparently very sweaty) Garrett Bradbury is with the Vikings. 2 other offensive linemen graduated. Therefore, NC State’s incredible 2.2% sack rate should go up. Right? RIGHT? Look for the ‘Pack to take a step back, as they lose a lot off their very efficient offense. They add a few transfers at quarterback (#triggered), receiver, and linebacker to try to plug some holes, but this should be a good time for FSU to exact a measure of revenge at home.

FSU @ Clemson

10/12, TBD

Returning: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Travis Etienne, WR Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross, Amari Rodgers, LG John Simpson, RG Sean Pollard, RT Tremayne Anchrum, CB A.J. Terrell, Nickel Isaiah Simmons, SS K’Von Wallace, FS Tanner Muse

Leaving: WR Hunter Renfrow (finally), TE Braden Galloway, LT Mitch Hyatt, C Justin Falcinelli, DE Clelin Farrell, Austin Bryant, DT Christian Wilkins, Dexter Lawrence, LB Kendall Joseph, Jalen Williams, MLB Tre Lamar, CB Trayvon Mullen

Advanced Stats – Projected Record 11-1

2018 Clemson:

Final S&P+: 3rd

Offensive S&P+: 5th

Defensive S&P+: 3rd

Offensive Success Rate: 7th

Offensive Points/Possession: 28th

Defensive Success Rate: 4th

Defensive Points/Possession: 8th

2019 Clemson:

Projected S&P+: 3rd

Offensive S&P+: 3rd

Defensive S&P+: 8th

The schedule makers were very kind, scheduling Clemson after a bye. What difference will it make? None at all, honestly. Clemson is going to steamroll us unless either a) EVERYBODY and their backups get hurt, or 2) All our players get replaced with the football version of the Monstars. Luckily, they lose all 4 of their starting D-Linemen and off their front seven in general. Unluckily, they replace them with folks that are nearly just as good. What else do you say? We gonna get whooped.

FSU @ Wake Forest

10/19, TBD

Returning: QB Sam Hartman, Jamie Newman, RB Cade Carney, WR Sage Surratt, LT Justin Herron, RT Nathan Gilliam, DE Carlos Basham, Jr., DT Miles Fox, Buck Justin Strnad, MLB DJ Taylor, CB Essang Bassey, Amari Henderson, Nickel Luke Masterson

Leaving: RB Matt Colburn II, WR Greg Dortch, Alex Bachman, LG Phil Haynes, C Ryan Anderson, RG Patrick Osterhage, DE Chris Calhoun, DT Willie Yarbary, Zeek Rodney, Rover Demetrius Kemp, FS Cameron Glenn, SS Chuck Wade, Jr.

Advanced Stats – Projected Record 6.2-5.8

2018 Wake Forest:

Final S&P+: 57th

Offensive S&P+: 48th

Defensive S&P+: 64th

Offensive Success Rate: 70th

Offensive Points/Possession: 113th

Defensive Success Rate: 58th

Defensive Points/Possession: 70th

2019 Wake Forest:

Projected S&P+: 62nd

Offensive S&P+: 64th

Defensive S&P+: 61st

This matchup doesn’t make me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. We can only hope that the TV folks don’t give us the noon slot on a second straight road game after getting whipped by Clemson. Wake is a veteran team who always plays good defense. They return most of their skill position weapons outside of Greg Dortch and a lot out of their secondary. They may be weaker up front on both sides of the ball, but they did take on a DT transfer from Old Dominion. Dave Clawson is quietly turning the Deacs’ program around one piece at a time.

FSU vs. Syracuse

10/26, TBD

Returning: RB Moe Neal, WR Sean Riley, Taj Harris, Nykeim Johnson, LT Ryan Alexander (USA Transfer), C Sam Heckel, RG Evan Adams, DE Alton Robinson, Kendall Coleman, NT Josh Black, CB Christopher Fredrick, Scoop Bradshaw, Nickel Trill Williams

Leaving: QB Eric Dungey, RB Dontae Strickland, WR Jamal Custis, TE Ravian Pierce, LT Cody Conway, LG Aaron Roberts, RT Koda Martin, DT Chris Slayton, MLB Ryan Guthrie, OLB Kielan Whitner, SS Evan Foster, FS Andre Cisco

Advanced Stats – Projected Record 6.7-5.3

2018 Syracuse:

Final S&P+: 40th

Offensive S&P+: 44th

Defensive S&P+: 60th

Offensive Success Rate: 41st

Offensive Points/Possession: 62nd

Defensive Success Rate: 35th

Defensive Points/Possession: 111th

2019 Syracuse:

Projected S&P+: 56th

Offensive S&P+: 59th

Defensive S&P+: 54th

Again with the orange and blue theme. Syracuse loses not only a major part of their offense, but their unquestioned leader in Eric Dungey. They also lose quite a few good pieces all over the offense. The same can be said for the defense, but watch out for the Orange’s defensive end tandem – they’ll test FSU’s tackles for sure. Only time will tell if the Orange can take a step forward.

FSU vs. Miami

11/2, TBD

Returning: QB N’Kosi Perry, Tate Martell (Transfer from tOSU), Jarren Williams, RB DeeJay Dallas, WR K.J. Osborn (Transfer from Buffalo), Jeff Thomas, TE Brevin Jordan, LT Tommy Kennedy (Transfer from Butler), RG Navaughn Donaldson, RT DJ Scaife, Jr., DE Jonathan Garvin, DT Tito Odenigbo, MLB Shaquille Quarterman, WLB Michael Pinckney, Striker Zach McCloud

Leaving: QB Malik Rosier, RB Travis Homer, WR Lawrence Cager, Darrell Langham, LT Tyree St. Louis, LG Hayden Mahoney, C Tyler Gauthier, DE Joe Jackson, DT Gerald Willis III

Advanced Stats – Projected Record 8.7-3.3

2018 Miami:

Final S&P+: 27th

Offensive S&P+: 66th

Defensive S&P+: 14th

Offensive Success Rate: 109th

Offensive Points/Possession: 41st

Defensive Success Rate: 10th

Defensive Points/Possession: 34th

2019 Miami:

Projected S&P+: 19th

Offensive S&P+: 60th

Defensive S&P+: 12th

And then we come to the National Champions of the Transfer Portal. The Hurricanes took 8 transfers in an attempt to get Netflix to choose them for Last Chance U, but it was in vain. Miami loses a lot on the O-Line, but returns a lot on defense. I personally can’t wait to see how the Tate Martell Backup Saga plays out, as well as all the other transfers. Will they gel as a team or will they fall apart? I’m rooting for the latter.

FSU @ Boston College

11/9, TBD

Returning: QB Anthony Brown, RB AJ Dillon, WR Kobay White, TE Korab Idrizi, LG Hayden Mahoney (Transfer from Miami), RT Ben Petrula, DT Tanner Karafa, SLB Isaiah McDuffie, WLB Max Richardson, CB Brandon Sebastian

Leaving: WR Jeff Smith, TE Tommy Sweeney, LT Aaron Monteiro, LG Sam Schmal, C Jon Baker, RG Chris Lindstrom, DE Zach Allen, Wyatt Ray, NT Ray Smith, MLB Connor Strachan, CB Taj-Amir Torres, SS Will Harris, FS Lukas Denis

Advanced Stats – Projected Record 5.5-6.5

2018 Boston College:

Final S&P+: 63rd

Offensive S&P+: 88th

Defensive S&P+: 32nd

Offensive Success Rate: 110th

Offensive Points/Possession: 43rd

Defensive Success Rate: 51st

Defensive Points/Possession: 43rd

2019 Boston College:

Projected S&P+: 72nd

Offensive S&P+: 81st

Defensive S&P+: 63rd

The Eagles lose a lot of starters off their 2018 roster, including most of their starting offensive and defensive linemen. Their secondary is also impacted, but that’s as much by graduation as it is flashbacks of Tamorrion Terry burning their safeties. The Eagles lost the last 3 games of the season last year, and had their bowl game canceled to boot. We’ll have to see if their hurry-up power offense can repeat its 2018 success.

FSU vs. Alabama State

11/16, TBD

Alabama State is an FCS team out of the SWAC. They were 4-7 last year. They lost 62-13 to Kennesaw State last year. Consider this an additional bye week after having 2 mentally tough games in a row. Next.

FSU @ Florida

11/30, TBD

Returning: QB Feleipe Franks, RB Lamical Perine, WR Van Jefferson, Trevon Grimes, Josh Hammond, C Nick Buchanan, Buck Jon Greenard (Transfer from Louisville), DT Adam Shuler, NT Kyree Campbell, DE Jabari Zuniga, WLB David Reese II, CB CJ Henderson, Marco Wilson,

Leaving: RB Jordan Scarlett, TE C’yontai Lewis, LT Martez Ivey, LG Tyler Jordan, RG Fred Johnson, RT Jawaan Taylor, Buck Jachai Polite, MLB Vosean Joseph, Star Chauncey Gardner-Johnson,

Advanced Stats – Projected Record 7.1-4.9

2018 UF:

Final S&P+: 71st

Offensive S&P+: 97th

Defensive S&P+: 37nd

Offensive Success Rate: 124th

Offensive Points/Possession: 11th

Defensive Success Rate: 39th

Defensive Points/Possession: 49th

2019 UF:

Projected S&P+: 28th

Offensive S&P+: 72nd

Defensive S&P+: 15th

As we have all hoped, the Gators seem massively overrated. A start in the Top 15 of the polls has seemed a little high to me since they debuted. I’m not saying that last year’s production didn’t merit that ranking, but I think a course correction is on the way for the Lizards. The offensive ineptitude that has plagued UF since the departure of Tebow is still there, and might be even more pronounced with the departure of 80% of the Gator O-Line.

Predictions

John: A solid 8-4 with losses to Boise, Clemson, Syracuse, and UF. A definite improvement, but still lots of work to do.

Cory: 7-5, with 8-4 more likely than 6-6. We lose to Miami, UF, Clemson, Wake, and one we shouldn’t – I’m leaning toward BC.

James Coleman: FSU goes 10-2, losing to Clemson and BC.