Geelong could miss out on hosting an AFL qualifying final at Simonds Stadium, even though they would have earned the right by beating Greater Western Sydney.

In a decision that would infuriate the Cats, the league could schedule the game at the MCG because, as the ladder looks now, if Geelong earn home advantage they will be the only Victorian final in week one.

There is no way the AFL will play that game in Geelong and leave the MCG vacant for the weekend. Geelong are third, half a game behind the Giants.

If GWS beat the Cats in their round 23 clash on Saturday night at Simonds Stadium, then the Giants will host a qualifying final. It would also mean Geelong are on the road in a qualifying final against either the Giants or Adelaide.

If the Cats have a massive win over GWS they will be barracking hard on Sunday for an upset St Kilda win over Richmond. A Tigers loss could result in them being relegated from fourth to fifth or sixth, meaning they host an elimination final at the MCG.

That would make it far more likely that the AFL lets Geelong play their qualifying final against the Giants at Simonds Stadium – a repeat of Saturday night’s fixture.

Geelong are lobbying to play any home finals, other than the grand final, at their newly-redeveloped ground. But the AFL’s contractual obligations with the MCG and that venue’s much larger capacity means Simonds Stadium misses out if it is the only Victorian match on a finals weekend.

If the ladder stays as it is now, there will be no Victorian games in week one of the finals. The AFL has also confirmed that one of the finals will be played on the Thursday night.

Meanwhile, the AFL is in ongoing discussions with ANZ Stadium about potentially hosting a final. But that would only happen if GWS play Sydney. No AFL games have been played at ANZ Stadium since last year’s finals series.

How week one of the finals looks before round 23:

First qualifying final: Adelaide v Richmond (Adelaide Oval)



Second qualifying final: GWS v Geelong (Spotless Stadium)



First elimination final: Port Adelaide v Essendon (Adelaide Oval)



Second elimination final: Sydney v Melbourne (SCG)



If Geelong beat GWS this Saturday night, the Cats move to second on the ladder and earn a home qualifying final.

If Geelong are the only Victorian final, their game will be played probably at the MCG, not Simonds Stadium.

The only realistic chance of a second Victorian match in week one is if Richmond drop from fourth to fifth or sixth, meaning they host an elimination final.