New Jersey may be on track to fall short of tax revenues, a potential loss that could force cuts to programs and services, higher interest rates and pressure on lawmakers to raise taxes.

While some lawmakers see the sluggish growth as evidence the state needs to make tough choices, the Murphy administration is taking a wait-and-see approach. Income tax returns filed in the coming weeks could lead to an "April surprise": higher-than-expected tax revenues.

But the tax picture painted by the first seven months of the fiscal year leaves little or no room for a poor April. In its January revenue snapshot, the Office of Legislative Services said tax collections totaled $16.8 billion. That's 2.9 percent more than the year before, but Gov. Phil Murphy planned on tax revenues growing by 7.2 percent by the end of the fiscal year, on June 30.

At the current growth rate as detailed in that legislative services report, and not accounting for higher revenues in the second half of the fiscal year, the state would fall about $5 billion short of the $33.5 billion in major revenues certified by the governor. The Treasury Department declined to say what its current projection for the end of the year is, but the ratings agency S&P Global Ratings said it calculates a $740 million shortfall if the trend continues.

“A $5 billion revenue shortfall would be impossible based on our revenues to date," treasury spokesman William Skaggs said. "Through the end of January, state revenue is up $500 million, and most of the state revenue comes in during the second half of the fiscal year. For there to be a $5 billion shortfall, we would have to experience a nearly 30 percent drop in revenue for the second half of the fiscal year, which would be twice as bad as what took place during the recession in 2009.”

The sales tax and corporate business tax — two of the state's top three income sources — grew above projections. Collections of the corporate tax were 47 percent higher than the year before, for a total of $1.8 billion through January, but that is primarily due to an increase in the rate agreed to last year. That tax rate gradually declines and will be phased out.

The state's largest source of income, the gross income tax, was down 6 percent for a total of $7.8 billion.

“We are taking a measured approach and intend to wait until after the April income tax filing deadline before we make any definitive conclusions about the year’s total revenues," Treasury Department spokeswoman Jennifer Sciortino said in a statement.

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In the meantime, Murphy is scheduled to deliver his budget speech for the 2020 fiscal year on Tuesday. After nearing a government shutdown last year in a dispute with fellow Democrats over tax hikes, Murphy has not clearly said whether he plans to seek more tax increases to support his plans to expand universal pre-kindergarten, tuition-free community college and funding of Planned Parenthood.

Murphy did say in prepared remarks for a speech to lawmakers in Washington, D.C., on Thursday night that his budget address will include a commitment to "tax fairness for our middle-class families" — a euphemism he used last year to refer to increases — and will put forward "significant savings" to ease the burden of property taxes.

"The budget I will propose in five days will include even bigger steps to move us back to the principles of good governance and sound fiscal practices that our residents demand, that the bond rating agencies want, and which administrations and legislatures of both parties had evaded for far too long," Murphy said, according to a copy of the speech.

But there's little appetite for tax hikes in the Democratic-controlled Legislature, as it's a legislative election year and a faction of Democrats are behind a set of fiscal reforms led by Senate President Stephen Sweeney.

In a statement, Sweeney advocated for the recommendations in his "Path to Progress" report, which include merging state services and selling state assets to help support education and public employee pensions.

“The revenue reports show more economic warning signs that are troubling but not surprising. If they are ignored, there will be consequences for public finances and the important services provided to the citizens of New Jersey," Sweeney, of Gloucester County, said in a statement. "We have to get our fiscal house in order and face up to the tough choices. Tax increases are not the answer. They would only make circumstances worse, especially if we continue to experience any softening in the economy."

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Murphy, Sweeney and Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin went down to the wire last year in negotiating the current year's $37.4 billion budget. Murphy had wanted to restore the sales tax to 7 percent, after it was cut by a fraction under Republican Gov. Chris Christie, and raise rates on incomes over $1 million.

But after intense and sometimes heated discussions that brought the state to the brink of a government shutdown, they compromised on a range of increases, including the corporate tax and a "multimillionaires tax," while leaving the sales tax intact.

Murphy also agreed to a tax amnesty program at the behest of Coughlin, D-Middlesex, as a way to capture revenue. Although a spokeswoman said that "continues to produce much-needed revenue," it isn't a reliable method of income.

"To date, the initiative has helped to generate nearly $282 million," the spokeswoman, Liza Acevedo, said in a statement. "Speaker Coughlin will continue to carefully monitor state revenues as we move through the FY 2020 budget process."