Inside one of the vehicles, a tall, 43-year-old Saudi dissident by the name of Osama bin Laden, was busy plotting his next move. As his convoy sped away, towards the remote Hindu Kush, the chances of a Cruise missile landing anywhere near him in the immediate future receded almost to nothing.

And yet one of the new president's first decisions - assuming he ever makes it into office - will be whether to launch another US missile strike against Afghanistan.

The signs are ominous. Over the weekend, the US positioned its naval ships a few miles away from the Pakistani coast, in readiness for a possible attack.

Since October 12, US investigators have been searching for hard evidence implicating bin Laden in the attack on the USS Cole in Yemen, in which 17 US sailors died. But bombing his deserted camp would be a futile and preposterous gesture.

The fact that Afghanistan is in such a mess, and run by an Islamic fundamentalist movement, is, after all, partly the fault of the US.

It was the US that helped to train and equip the Mujaheddin back in the 1980s, as they waged their war against the invading Soviet Union.

One of the fighters who benefited from such US largesse was an obscure volunteer from Saudi Arabia with close links to its royal family - Osama bin Laden.

In 1986 the CIA even helped him build an underground camp at Khost, where he was to train recruits from across the Islamic world in the business of guerrilla warfare.

Twelve years later, the Americans bombed the same camp after holding bin Laden responsible for the devastating US embassy bombings in east Africa.

Some 34 people were killed in the Khost attack. Bin Laden left the camp an hour earlier.

By this stage, American policy had come full circle. The cold war over, a new generation of Mujaheddin leaders had sprung up - the Taliban.

Bin Laden's jihad against communism was transformed in the 1990s into a war against the west in general, and the US in particular. Having played Frankenstein, the CIA is now chasing after its very own monster.

Another missile attack will merely add to Afghanistan's misery. The country is already in the thrall of a massive and unreported humanitarian catastrophe.

In the south and west, there has been virtually no rain for three years. The road from Herat, close to the Iranian border, to Kandahar, the southern desert city, winds through a series of half-abandoned villages and giant empty riverbeds.

Some 12m people have been affected; of whom 3m are close to starvation. Pakistan's decision, last week, to shut its border with Afghanistan, has cut off the only escape route for drought-affected families.

When the UN imposed sanctions a year ago because of the Taliban's refusal to hand over bin Laden, the suffering in Afghanistan increased. The move has not hurt the elite Taliban, who are well off.

They continue to receive generous support from Pakistan. It is ordinary Afghans who have suffered.

Those in jobs earn a salary of around $4 a month, not enough to live on. Women who have been forbidden by the Taliban from working congregate outside the few functioning restaurants in bombed out Kabul every lunchtime, in the hope of getting something to eat.

The US is right about the nexus between bin Laden and the Taliban's secretive spiritual ruler, Mullah Mohammed Omar. The two men speak every day on their satellite phones and go fishing together - sometimes with grenades, sources say.

Mullah Omar is even rumoured to have married one of bin Laden's daughters, a claim that the Taliban deny.

Bin Laden, a multi-millionaire, continues to bankroll the Taliban's war in the northeast. His own Arab fighters take part in the battle at the frontline. No amount of US pressure is likely to persuade Mullah Omar to give up bin Laden.

The Taliban may be medieval. They are certainly uncompromising. And they are often barbarous.

But the uncomfortable reality for western policy makers is that they now control 95% of Afghanistan. With help from Pakistan, the US's erstwhile cold war ally, the Taliban are poised to complete their victory over the opposition led by General Ahmad Shah Masood, possibly as early as next summer.

If Mr Bush or Mr Gore ever make it to the White House, they need to begin a robust but constructive dialogue with Afghanistan.

The alternatives are far worse: the spread of jihad, and the spectre of an Islamic revolution in nuclear Pakistan.

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luke.harding@theguardian.com

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Useful links

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