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1. How far, and how fast?

It's not hard to understand the infatuation.

According to the 247Sports Composite, Tennessee head coach Butch Jones signed the No. 7 class in the country in 2014 and the No. 4 class in 2015. Those include 32 four- or five-star recruits.



According to F/+ ratings, Tennessee's 2014 team was its best since 2007. The bar isn't high -- the Vols had managed only one top-40 finish in that span -- but progress in Jones' second season was undeniable.

TL;DR Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports



Projected S&P+ ranking: 20



5-year recruiting ranking: 13



Biggest strength: The Vols have one of the most disruptive front-seven trios in the country.



Biggest question mark: The offensive line was a clear liability, and we don't know experience will cure that.



Biggest 2015 game: Take your pick. Oklahoma (Sept. 12) is a huge statement opportunity, Georgia (Oct. 10) could be a massive game in the East race, and the trip to Mizzou (Nov. 21) could have postseason implications.



In one sentence: Tennessee has a tantalizing combination of production and upside, and while the schedule probably features too many obstacles, it's not hard to see the Vols topping seven wins for the first time since 2007. : 20: 13: The Vols have one of the most disruptive front-seven trios in the country.: The offensive line was a clear liability, and we don't know experience will cure that.: Take your pick. Oklahoma (Sept. 12) is a huge statement opportunity, Georgia (Oct. 10) could be a massive game in the East race, and the trip to Mizzou (Nov. 21) could have postseason implications.Tennessee has a tantalizing combination of production and upside, and while the schedule probably features too many obstacles, it's not hard to see the Vols topping seven wins for the first time since 2007.

Combine that with Tennessee's name-brand reputation, which tends to result in a race to proclaim a team "BACK," and a great bowl performance, which tends to result in an artificial bump in the preseason polls, and I assumed the Vols would be ranked far too high to start 2015. Like, top-15 high.

In fact, I wrote about the dreaded bowl bump and its harmful effects after Tennessee's bowl win.

Offseason perceptions matter more than they should. A top-30 performance in 2015, which would be accompanied by about eight wins or so, would represent another step forward for Jones. But if we set the bar higher than that and make improvement seem disappointing, that's unfair.

So consider me pleasantly surprised that the pollsters are tapping the brakes. The Vols ranked 25th in the preseason coaches poll; in the SEC hierarchy, that puts them behind Arkansas and Missouri and ahead of Mississippi State and Texas A&M. And it nearly matches their projected No. 26 ranking in the upcoming Football Outsiders Almanac 2015. It is a fair spot, and Jones' Vols will have a chance to exceed expectations.

Jones has used every recruiting trick in the book to bring talent to Knoxville, and he and his staff have proved capable of putting it in position to succeed. For a young team, the Vols weren't particularly volatile last year, and that could say good things as the quality of the product improves.

We're just waiting to see how quickly the product improves. You won't continue to sign top-five classes without affirming your direction on the field, and the hurdles don't end after a 7-6 season. Jones is eschewing some development and five-year depth (quite a few of last year's signees have already left) in exchange for getting uncut talent onto the field. In theory, that could work, but it could cause problems if growth isn't quick enough to maintain recruiting.

The bar is set in a fair place for 2015. The upside is immense, but the Vols are a couple of injuries away from being too young to rise, and the schedule presents countless opportunities for breakthrough wins and discouraging losses.

It's going to be an interesting season in Knoxville.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 24 Date Opponent Opp. F/+ Rk Score W-L Percentile

Performance Adj. Scoring

Margin Win

Expectancy 31-Aug Utah State 52 38-7 W 99% 55.2 100% 6-Sep Arkansas State 66 34-19 W 80% 19.6 70% 13-Sep at Oklahoma 19 10-34 L 27% -14.3 0% 27-Sep at Georgia 4 32-35 L 81% 20.5 38% 4-Oct Florida 32 9-10 L 70% 12.2 37% 11-Oct Chattanooga N/A 45-10 W 96% 40.7 100% 18-Oct at Ole Miss 5 3-34 L 18% -21.8 0% 25-Oct Alabama 2 20-34 L 51% 0.7 2% 1-Nov at South Carolina 38 45-42 W 70% 12.0 60% 15-Nov Kentucky 68 50-16 W 99% 53.7 100% 22-Nov Missouri 20 21-29 L 51% 0.4 15% 29-Nov at Vanderbilt 115 24-17 W 56% 3.3 75% 2-Jan vs. Iowa 63 45-28 W 99% 57.8 100%

Category Offense Rk Defense Rk S&P+ 32.5 40 18.3 12 Points Per Game 28.9 65 24.2 36

2. We probably shouldn't overstate the improvement

Using the percentiles above, there are two ways to look at Tennessee's 2014. First, there's the overarching narrative: Tennessee was scuffling along until Joshua Dobbs took over at quarterback against Alabama, and then the Vols took a big step forward.

That is true ... to a degree.

Average Percentile Performance (first 8 games) : 65% (~top 45 | record: 3-5)

: 65% (~top 45 | record: 3-5) Average Percentile Performance (last 5 games): 75% (~top 30 | record: 4-1)

Tennessee went from averaging 4.4 yards per play without Dobbs to 5.5 with him. However:

There were still a couple of duds (4.1 combined yards per play against a good Missouri defense and a bad Vandy defense).



A lot of those yards came against South Carolina, Kentucky, and Iowa, which had defenses outside the Def. S&P+ top 50.



The defense grew leaky. After allowing 4.7 yards per play through seven games, UT allowed 6.1 in the final six. South Carolina averaged 8.6, Iowa 6.4 (though a lot of Iowa's damage came in garbage time). A thin D didn't have a ton to offer good offenses and faded.

If we turn the prism, we see a team that maybe didn't improve or regress, but just did far better against lesser teams.

Average Percentile Performance (vs. F/+ top 20) : 46% (~top 70 | record: 0-5)

: 46% (~top 70 | record: 0-5) Average Percentile Performance (vs. No. 21-plus): 84% (~top 20 | record: 7-1)

Almost everybody produces better results against worst teams, yes, but Tennessee seemed far more reliant than most on a talent advantage. The Vols got drubbed by Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Alabama, and couldn't hardly move the football against Missouri. They maybe beat Georgia without an untimely quarterback injury, but for the most part, they didn't have enough to compete against really good teams.

Lesser teams could offer little resistance. The Vols let a tossup against Florida slip away and sleep-walked over Vandy, but they sliced through bad defenses late in the year, and bad offenses couldn't pretend to move the football early on.

This is a surprise, considering how young Tennessee was. And while it probably means the Volunteers are going to be limited against a schedule that features four teams projected 12th or better, it could mean they handle business against just about every other team.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE Raw Category Rk Opp. Adj. Category Rk EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 0.80 91 IsoPPP+ 110.3 44 EFFICIENCY Succ. Rt. 41.6% 65 Succ. Rt. + 104.2 54 FIELD POSITION Def. Avg. FP 28.0 30 Def. FP+ 105.0 20 FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 4.3 76 Redzone S&P+ 95.7 76 TURNOVERS EXPECTED 21.0 ACTUAL 22 +1.0

Category Yards/

Game Rk S&P+ Rk Success

Rt. Rk PPP+ Rk OVERALL 93 41 38 44 RUSHING 92 33 27 39 PASSING 71 47 42 54 Standard Downs 34 29 42 Passing Downs 44 44 50

Q1 Rk 38 1st Down Rk 43 Q2 Rk 24 2nd Down Rk 40 Q3 Rk 64 3rd Down Rk 74 Q4 Rk 72

3. Great at nothing, bad at nothing

It's hard to use full-season numbers to judge the Tennessee offense, considering the turnover at quarterback.

Justin Worley began as UT's starter, and Jones intended to redshirt true sophomore Dobbs. But Worley got hurt and struggled, and backup Nathan Peterman didn't inspire much confidence. So Dobbs' redshirt was torn off midway, and while his numbers were in no way eye-popping, they were better than Worley's and Peterman's.

It's still pretty impressive to see UT's rankings above. The Vols were between about 27th and 55th in almost every category. They created good field position for their defense (with help from good punts and kickoffs) and struggled to finish drives in the end zone, and in just out every other category they were above average.

That's encouraging. Dobbs was a sophomore, running back Jalen Hurd was a freshman, and freshmen combined to start 20 games on the line. Then-junior Pig Howard led the way in the receiving corps, but it was virtually freshmen and sophomores after him.

With reasonable year-to-year improvement, this offense could go from being above average at everything to being good at everything.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp

Rate Sacks Sack Rate Yards/

Att. Justin Worley

157 252 1579 12 8 62.3% 28 10.0% 4.9 Joshua Dobbs 6'3, 212 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.9276 112 177 1206 9 6 63.3% 12 6.3% 5.9 Nathan Peterman

10 20 49 0 0 50.0% 2 9.1% 1.2 Quinten Dormady 6'4, 213 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9029 Jauan Jennings 6'4, 202 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9257



Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Rushes Yards TD Yards/

Carry Hlt Yds/

Opp. Opp.

Rate Fumbles Fum.

Lost Jalen Hurd RB 6'3, 230 So. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9793 190 899 5 4.7 3.9 38.9% 1 1 Joshua Dobbs QB 6'3, 212 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.9276 92 551 8 6.0 4.6 54.3% 4 2 Marlin Lane RB

86 300 1 3.5 4.3 23.3% 2 1 Justus Pickett RB

22 64 0 2.9 1.8 22.7% 0 0 Justin Worley QB

17 97 3 5.7 2.0 64.7% 5 3 Pig Howard WR 5'8, 187 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9063 15 96 2 6.4 3.3 66.7% 0 0 Deanthonie Summerhill RB

15 41 0 2.7 0.6 26.7% 0 0 Derrell Scott RB

11 40 0 3.6 4.0 36.4% 0 0 Devrin Young RB

10 49 0 4.9 1.8 60.0% 1 0 Von Pearson WR 6'3, 187 Sr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9292 8 27 0 3.4 1.8 25.0% 0 0 Nathan Peterman QB

7 35 1 5.0 2.4 71.4% 1 0 RD Abernathy IV

(Cincinnati) RB 5'7, 161 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8047 132 511 5 3.9 3.7 32.6% N/A N/A Alvin Kamara RB 5'11, 210 So. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9760

















4. Nobody. Get. Hurt.

If Dobbs has to miss time, Tennessee's probably playing a true freshman at quarterback. If Hurd gets hurt, it's JUCO transfer Alvin Kamara (a former Alabama signee) or bust. Through both graduation and transfer, UT has lost almost all of last year's backfield two-deep beyond these two, and all bets are off if either or both go down, particularly Dobbs.

You could do worse than hanging your hopes on these two. Dobbs isn't an incredible playmaker, but he's mature for his experience level and has shown he can manage a game pretty well and make plays when he needs to (just ask South Carolina). He's got plenty of growing to do -- in nine games against teams not named Kentucky, he has a passer rating over 125 just twice -- but there's no reason to assume he won't grow.

Hurd passes the eyeball test. He's a mean runner, and he grew into the go-to role. After averaging a paltry 4.2 yards per carry through seven games, he averaged 5.5 in the final six. He had 21 carries for 125 yards against South Carolina and 16 for 122 against Iowa.

Hurd's a bit of a 'tweener: he's not efficient enough to be valuable without explosiveness. Of the 54 FBS running backs with at least 190 carries last year, he ranked 33rd in opportunity rate (percentage of carries gaining at least five yards) and 48th in highlight yards per opportunity (basically, the magnitude of his successful carries). He was a freshman, sure, but 22 of the 54 players on this 190-carry list were freshmen and sophomores, and others graded out much better.

Line play was an ongoing issue, and while he wasn't breaking off 50-yarders when the line did its job, that probably prevented him from establishing much of a rhythm. Plus, it probably isn't a coincidence that his numbers improved when Dobbs took over. Dobbs' mobility gave opponents one more thing to account for, and it took eyes off of Hurd.

With Hurd and Dobbs back and the line more experienced, it's safe to assume the run game will improve.

What about the passing game? Hard to say. Virtually every wideout and tight end returns (sans senior Von Pearson, who might not), but despite epic recruiting rankings, nobody was much of a downfield threat. Coordinator Mike Bajakian aimed for efficiency over explosiveness and sometimes got it.

With Bajakian leaving for a spot with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jones replaced him with veteran Mike DeBord, a pro-style coach's pro-style coach. DeBord was the play-caller for Michigan's 1997 national title run and spent five seasons as an NFL assistant and two as a Michigan administrator.

If you've got the talent, an old-school, pro-style (whatever that means at this point) approach can work. And perhaps it means more play-action opportunities for receivers to stretch the field.

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target

Rate %SD Yds/

Target NEY Real Yds/

Target RYPR Pig Howard WR 5'8, 187 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9063 83 54 618 65.1% 19.5% 55.4% 7.4 -33 7.4 86.2 Marquez North WR 6'4, 224 Jr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9575 53 30 320 56.6% 12.4% 47.2% 6.0 -52 5.9 44.6 Von Pearson WR 6'3, 187 Sr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9292 46 38 393 82.6% 10.8% 71.7% 8.5 -47 8.7 54.7 Josh Malone WR 6'3, 198 So. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9818 46 23 231 50.0% 10.8% 63.0% 5.0 -62 5.1 32.2 Jalen Hurd RB 6'3, 230 So. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9793 41 35 221 85.4% 9.6% 46.3% 5.4 -182 5.3 30.8 Jason Croom WR 6'5, 235 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9122 35 21 305 60.0% 8.2% 51.4% 8.7 48 8.8 42.5 Ethan Wolf TE 6'5, 240 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8890 32 23 212 71.9% 7.5% 56.3% 6.6 -60 6.7 29.5 Josh Smith WR 6'1, 205 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8210 15 10 135 66.7% 3.5% 60.0% 9.0 15 9.0 18.8 Johnathon Johnson WR 5'9, 185 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8400 15 10 117 66.7% 3.5% 66.7% 7.8 -3 7.5 16.3 Daniel Helm TE

15 6 37 40.0% 3.5% 40.0% 2.5 -44 2.2 5.2 Marlin Lane RB

14 11 78 78.6% 3.3% 78.6% 5.6 -50 4.8 10.9 Alex Ellis TE 6'4, 236 Sr. NR NR 9 6 115 66.7% 2.1% 55.6% 12.8 43 12.9 16.0 Vic Wharton WR

8 5 64 62.5% 1.9% 75.0% 8.0 3 6.1 8.9 Devrin Young RB

5 4 31 80.0% 1.2% 60.0% 6.2 -16 6.1 4.3 Cody Blanc WR 6'3, 202 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8327 A.J. Branisel TE 6'4, 237 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8503 Neiko Creamer TE 6'3, 233 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8584 Preston Williams WR 6'4, 180 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9763



Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Career Starts Honors/Notes Marcus Jackson (injury) LG 6'2, 308 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9011 17 Kyler Kerbyson LT 6'4, 317 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8839 13 Jashon Robertson RG 6'3, 310 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8625 13 Mack Crowder C 6'2, 290 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8600 12 Jacob Gilliam RT

7 Coleman Thomas C 6'6, 308 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8584 5 Brett Kendrick RT 6'6, 308 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8296 2 Dylan Wiesman LG 6'3, 305 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8352 2 Austin Sanders LG 6'5, 307 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8793 0 Dontavius Blair LT 6'8, 295 Jr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9099 0 Charles Mosley OL 6'5, 350 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8948

Ray Raulerson OL 6'5, 279 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8472

Drew Richmond OL 6'5, 310 Fr. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9732

Jack Jones RT 6'5, 289 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9404

Chance Hall RG 6'5, 317 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8585

Venzell Boulware OL 6'3, 303 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8837

Zach Stewart OL 6'4, 310 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8649



5. The OL will determine UT's fate

Adjusting for opponent, Tennessee's line may not have been as bad as we thought. The Vols did have to face Georgia and Missouri from the SEC East, Alabama and Ole Miss from the West, and Oklahoma in non-conference play. There's a lot to account for in that group of defensive fronts.

Still, despite a big running back, the Vols stunk in short-yardage and allowed defenders into the backfield, run or pass. They ranked 96th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), and only two teams were worse at preventing passing downs sacks: UCLA and Navy. Dobbs' mobility helped tamp the sack rates down, but he was still sacked nine times by Missouri (six) and Vanderbilt (three).

[Update: Starting left guard Marcus Jackson is likely lost for the year to injury.]

The line's improvement could determine everything from whether Dobbs gets hurt to if Tennessee is able to move the ball against a defense like Alabama's, Georgia's, or Florida's. The experience is far better -- the Vols entered 2014 with six career starts and enter 2015 with 64 -- and now we just have to find out about development.

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Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE Raw Category Rk Opp. Adj. Category Rk EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 0.85 69 IsoPPP+ 122.3 17 EFFICIENCY Succ. Rt. 36.8% 18 Succ. Rt. + 116.6 19 FIELD POSITION Off. Avg. FP 33.6 11 Off. FP+ 107.1 10 FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 4.7 101 Redzone S&P+ 97.6 72 TURNOVERS EXPECTED 22.1 ACTUAL 24.0 +1.9

Category Yards/

Game Rk S&P+ Rk Success

Rt. Rk PPP+ Rk OVERALL 37 16 18 17 RUSHING 67 21 21 26 PASSING 23 11 18 14 Standard Downs 16 13 28 Passing Downs 18 38 13

Q1 Rk 6 1st Down Rk 9 Q2 Rk 53 2nd Down Rk 39 Q3 Rk 10 3rd Down Rk 23 Q4 Rk 91

6. Significant improvement, top to bottom

The offense still has worries. Injuries could wreck the backfield, and we don't know how much the line will improve or what DeBord will have to offer.

On defense, there are far fewer concerns. Tennessee improved from 77th in Def. S&P+ in Derek Dooley's final season to 43rd in 2013 and 12th in 2014, and the Vols return eight of the top nine linemen, six of seven linebackers, and eight of 11 defensive backs.

Tennessee did have a problem with closing drives, games, seasons, etc. The Vols ranked 72nd in Redzone S&P+, fell from sixth in Q1 S&P+ to 91st in Q4, and faded dramatically in November. Injuries played a role, but youth probably did, too: of the 22 returnees, 16 were freshmen or sophomores. Between increased experience and the presence of another crop of impressive freshmen, one assumes depth and closing will be less problematic.

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Derek Barnett DE 6'3, 268 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9164 13 59.5 8.4% 20.5 10.0 0 0 0 0 Jordan Williams DT

13 21.0 2.9% 4.0 2.0 0 4 0 0 Corey Vereen DE 6'2, 253 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8678 13 19.5 2.7% 4.0 1.5 0 0 0 0 Danny O'Brien NT 6'2, 282 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9181 13 19.5 2.7% 4.5 1.0 0 0 0 0 Owen Williams NT 6'2, 295 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8443 12 16.0 2.2% 2.0 2.0 0 1 0 0 Jakob Johnson DE 6'4, 240 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8582 12 11.0 1.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 LaTroy Lewis DE 6'4, 260 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8798 13 7.0 1.0% 5.0 1.0 0 1 1 0 Trevarris Saulsberry DT 6'4, 308 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8494 5 4.0 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Dimarya Mixon DT 6'3, 270 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8618 12 4.0 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Jaylen Miller DE

9 2.0 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Michael Sawyers DT

4 1.5 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Dewayne Hendrix DE

7 1.5 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Kendal Vickers DT 6'3, 288 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7997 Kahlil McKenzie DT 6'3, 327 Fr. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9968 Kyle Phillips DE 6'4, 255 Fr. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9831 Shy Tuttle DT 6'3, 315 Fr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9738 Andrew Butcher DE 6'2, 250 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9018 Darrell Taylor DE 6'4, 228 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9004



Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Jalen Reeves-Maybin WLB 6'1, 225 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9052 13 82.0 11.5% 11.0 2.0 1 0 0 0 A.J. Johnson MLB

10 79.5 11.2% 9.0 2.0 1 2 2 0 Curt Maggitt SLB/DE 6'3, 246 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9310 13 41.0 5.8% 15.0 11.0 0 0 1 0 Cortez McDowell WLB 6'1, 227 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9235 13 14.5 2.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Chris Weatherd SLB 6'4, 217 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8969 13 10.0 1.4% 3.0 2.5 0 1 0 0 Dillon Bates LB 6'3, 225 RSFr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9536 4 4.5 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Kenny Bynum MLB 6'1, 250 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8425 7 4.0 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0 1 0 0 Justin King LB

13 1.5 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Elliott Berry LB 6'0, 217 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8528 Gavin Bryant LB 6'0, 236 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8976 Darrin Kirkland Jr. LB 6'2, 235 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9271 Quart'e Sapp LB 6'2, 200 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9077



















7. A deep, well-rounded defensive front

Tennessee's front seven brings absurd recruiting rankings and proven production in a way few other teams can.

End Derek Barnett, linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin, and end/linebacker Curt Maggitt combined for 46.5 tackles for loss and 23 sacks. This is impressive both in its volume and its well-roundedness. This trio was good at getting to both quarterbacks and running backs behind the line.

The loss of underrated tackle Jordan Williams hurts, and it's hard to count on oft-injured Trevarris Saulsberry to remain healthy. But between Danny O'Brien, Owen Williams, and incoming blue-chippers Kahlil McKenzie and Shy Tuttle, it's hard to worry much about tackle.

Signs point to strong depth, which should bump Tennessee up from last year's No. 21 Rushing S&P+ ranking. And if you can't run against the Vols, good luck trying to fend off this pass rush.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Brian Randolph SS 6'0, 208 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8590 13 76.5 10.7% 1.5 0 2 3 1 0 LaDarrell McNeil FS 6'1, 206 Sr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9554 13 61.0 8.6% 1.5 0 2 3 1 0 Justin Coleman CB

13 36.5 5.1% 4 0 4 5 0 0 Cameron Sutton CB 6'1, 189 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8625 13 34.0 4.8% 4 0 3 13 1 0 Todd Kelly Jr. SS 6'0, 208 So. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9686 13 27.5 3.9% 0 0 3 2 0 0 Michael Williams DB

10 20.5 2.9% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Emmanuel Moseley CB 5'11, 175 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8464 13 17.0 2.4% 2 0 0 6 0 0 Malik Foreman CB 5'10, 187 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8290 13 9.0 1.3% 0 0 0 1 0 0 Rashaan Gaulden DB 6'1, 184 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8773 11 6.5 0.9% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evan Berry DB 5'11, 208 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8934 13 5.0 0.7% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Devaun Swafford FS

13 4.5 0.6% 0 0 0 0 0 0 D'Andre Payne DB

8 3.0 0.4% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Justin Martin CB 6'2, 173 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9069 Micah Abernathy DB 6'0, 186 Fr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.9082



















8. Few worries in the back

Like Jordan Williams, corner Justin Coleman was a nice defensive piece, capable of making plays near to and far from the line of scrimmage. But when he's basically all you lose from a secondary that was pretty good, it's easy to be optimistic, especially considering Barnett and Maggitt are still in uniform.

Tennessee's pass D was wonderfully well-rounded: top 10 in sack rates, top 20 in efficiency, top 20 in big-play prevention. The former and latter are in good hands. Senior safeties Brian Randolph and LaDarrell McNeil are both back, as is blue-chip sophomore Todd Kelly Jr.

The efficiency piece could be determined by Coleman's replacement, likely one of two sophomores: Emmanuel Moseley or Justin Martin. Moseley showed prime ball skills in limited opportunities, and Martin is a four-star JUCO. Either could team with active-as-hell junior Cameron Sutton to form a nice tandem.

And if you've got Barnett and potentially Maggitt at end, a nice batch of tackles, a couple playmakers at linebacker, steady seniors at safety, and major activity at cornerback ... well ... where's the weakness in this defense?

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2015

Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20

Ratio Matt Darr 80 42.2 11 30 30 75.0% Nathan Renfro

(Maryland) 6'1, 205 Sr. 84 41.5 9 22 21 51.2%

Kicker Ht, Wt 2015

Year Kickoffs Avg TB OOB TB% Aaron Medley 6'2, 189 So. 63 60.1 15 1 23.8% George Bullock 6'0, 210 Jr. 10 60.9 2 0 20.0%

Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2015

Year PAT FG

(0-39) Pct FG

(40+) Pct Aaron Medley 6'2, 189 So. 42-43 19-20 95.0% 1-6 16.7%

Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Returns Avg. TD Evan Berry KR 5'11, 208 So. 14 29.5 0 Devrin Young KR 13 21.5 0 Cameron Sutton PR 6'1, 189 Jr. 14 11.3 1 Jacob Carter PR 8 6.9 0

Category Rk Special Teams F/+ 15 Field Goal Efficiency 45 Punt Return Efficiency 35 Kick Return Efficiency 56 Punt Efficiency 55 Kickoff Efficiency 10 Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency 96

9. Nailing all the basics

UT's special teams unit was a lot like the offense, with few true strengths and no weaknesses. Kick coverage was excellent despite few touchbacks, but the Vols ranked between 35th and 56th in every other category above.

Cameron Sutton returned a punt for a touchdown, Aaron Medley made just about every kick under 40 yards, Evan Berry was explosive (if not consistent) in kick returns. This wasn't LSU-level special teams, but it was good.

The Vols break in a new punter, likely Maryland transfer Nathan Renfro, but return everybody else. Hard to consider that a bad thing.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk 5-Sep vs. Bowling Green 94 12-Sep Oklahoma 10 19-Sep Western Carolina NR 26-Sep at Florida 29 3-Oct Arkansas 12 10-Oct Georgia 3 24-Oct at Alabama 1 31-Oct at Kentucky 52 7-Nov South Carolina 31 14-Nov North Texas 125 21-Nov at Missouri 23 28-Nov Vanderbilt 83

Five-Year F/+ Rk 9.0% (45) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 6 / 13 2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 2 / 1.2 2014 TO Luck/Game +0.3 Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 17 (9, 8) 2014 Second-order wins (difference) 7.0 (0.0)

10. Test after test

It's not hard to talk yourself into Tennessee. The Vols return a ton of starters, welcome another scary recruiting class, and proved enough that predictions aren't based wholly in potential. Ranking this team in the 20s feels safe, but the teens aren't far off.

When it comes to making an SEC East run or posting a high win total, however, the schedule will probably keep expectations tamped down. With a No. 26 projection in the Football Outsiders Almanac 2015, the Vols are given only a 25 percent chance of winning more than eight games and a 46 percent chance of winning seven or fewer.

By October 25, Tennessee will have hosted Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Georgia and traveled to Florida (here's your reminder that the Gators have beaten the Vols 10 consecutive times) and Alabama. The schedule eases up but still includes visits to Kentucky and a Missouri that has yet to lose to Tennessee since joining the SEC.

It's probably too much to ask that Tennessee make some serious run in 2015. Any backfield injury could have serious repercussions. We'll see if their on-field production can remain at a level that can sustain top-10 recruiting, and without going into too much detail, other issues could (justifiably) threaten to prevent a rise.

But Tennessee is going to be strong and could be on one hell of a trajectory.