Fianna Fáil is in with a chance of retaining three European Parliament seats but Labour could lose all of its three seats, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.

It shows Fine Gael looks on course to retain four Euro seats with Sinn Féin set for a major breakthrough with a good chance of winning three seats in Friday’s election.

In Dublin, Lynn Boylan of Sinn Féin on 23 per cent and Brian Hayes of Fine Gael on 22 per cent lead the field and are almost certain to be elected.

The third and final seat looks like being a three-way battle between Mary Fitzpatrick of Fianna Fáil, Eamon Ryan of the Green Party and Emer Costello of the Labour Party.

Ms Fitzpatrick is in third place on 12 per cent, followed by Eamon Ryan on 10 per cent, Emer Costello on 9 per cent and Nessa Childers on 8 per cent.

Podcast: Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll

Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll on European candidates Pollpictures (PDF)

Pollpictures (Text)

Bríd Smith of People Before Profit follows on 7 per cent with Paul Murphy of the Socialist Party on 6 per cent. Four other candidates are attracting 2 per cent or less.



Crowley surplus

In the Ireland South constituency, Fianna Fáil’s Brian Crowley is far ahead of the field on 31 per cent and his massive surplus will have a bearing on the destination of the final seats.

Sinn Féin’s Liadh Ní Riada with 19 per cent also looks certain to win a seat. Remarkably, Fine Gael has a good chance of winning two seats in the constituency with Seán Kelly a certainty and Deirdre Clune in the running for the final seat.

She looks like being in contention with Grace O’Sullivan of the Green Party who has an outside chance, according to the poll. Labour’s sitting MEP Phil Prendergast appears out of the running on 6 per cent but her transfers could prove vital.

In the Midlands North-West constituency, only Mairead McGuinness of Fine Gael, who leads the field on 18 per cent, looks sure of election.

Sinn Féin’s Matt Carthy is next on 15 per cent and should make it but he cannot afford to lose ground in the final days of the campaign.



Transfer threat

Fianna Fáil should get a seat with Pat the Cope Gallagher on 12 per cent and his running mate Thomas Byrne on 8 per cent. However, poor transfers could be a threat.

Luke Ming Flanagan on 12 per cent and sitting Independent Marian Harkin on 10 per each have a chance while sitting MEP Jim Higgins of Fine Gael on 9 per cent still has an outside chance of being elected if Fine Gael can divide its vote more evenly. Labour’s Lorraine Higgins is on 8 per cent.

The poll was taken last Thursday, Friday and Saturday among a representative sample of 1,500 voters at 150 sampling points around the country with 500 voters in each of the three Euro constituencies. The accuracy level in the constituency polls is plus or minus 4.5 per cent. Almost 30 per cent of voters expressed no opinion or said they would not vote.