Poll finds 15% say climate change is major threat in next two decades, jumping to 29% for people with direct recent experience of flooding

Britons are more likely to agree the climate is changing than at any time in recent years, with nearly nine in 10 people saying climate change is happening and 84% attributing this somewhat or entirely to human activity, new research has found. Two-thirds say they are concerned by global warming.

When asked to name major threats to the UK in the next two decades, 15% of those polled listed climate change without prompting, putting it in fourth position behind immigration, the economy and health. But among people who had direct recent experience of flooding, the number nearly doubled, to 29%.

Nick Pidgeon, professor at Cardiff University, who co-authored the research, said this showed that there was a clear link between last year’s severe flooding incidents, which left thousands homeless, and the perception of global warming.

“An association between last year’s winter flooding and climate change has been forming in the minds of many ordinary people in Britain, who also view these events as a sign of things to come,” he said.

This link should be used by scientists and politicians to reinforce their message that action on carbon emissions is vital, he added. “In my view they [scientists] should be a bit more decisive in saying extreme weather is one of the risks of climate change,” he said. A poll last August found the floods had caused 27% of the UK public to increase their belief that climate change was manmade.



The science of climate change “attribution” – linking specific extreme weather events to the effects of global warming – is making substantial progress, so it is becoming increasingly possible for scientists to tie particular weather patterns to climate change.

Across the UK, only 13% of the population take the opinion that climate change is not caused by human activity. That contrasts with 2011, when 21% of people said climate change was mainly or entirely the result of natural processes.

The Ipsos MORI survey questioned 1,002 respondents from across the UK, together with another 995 people from five areas of England and Wales that were afflicted by last year’s winter flooding. Of the latter group, 135 respondents had suffered directly from the flooding last winter.

A large majority (75%) of the general sample said the floods were some of the worst events to have happened to the UK in recent years, and 82% said the country had not been prepared for them. Only 36% thought the affected regions had coped well with the impact of the floods. Nearly two thirds (63%) said the floods were caused, at least in part, by climate change.

Most people are also willing to take action on greenhouse gas emissions, and to have the government and businesses take action, the Cardiff poll found. More than eight in 10 said they would buy more energy-efficient appliances and cut down on energy use at home, while 53% said they would be willing to make significant lifestyle changes to address climate change. Four in 10 said they would reduce the amount they travel by car.

UK flood victims less likely to be climate sceptics Read more

Three quarters of people said they supported the UK signing up to international agreements to limit emissions, with 14% neutral and only 7% opposed. On subsidies for wind farms and other renewables, people are split down the middle: four in 10 people support tax increases to pay for more renewable energy, with a similar number opposed and a further fifth neutral. Nearly half support road pricing schemes, with 18% neutral and a third opposed.

When asked what they would do about climate change, including options to change to a green energy supplier or sign a petition, only 14% said they would contact their local MP on the issue. This could provide a clue as to why so many MPs, Conservatives especially, are able to be markedly more sceptical on climate change than the electorate – if voters are not telling them it is an issue they care about, they may be more likely to follow their own inclinations or be swayed by lobbyists.