Former prime minister Tony Abbott wants to stay in Parliament but faces a series of threats to his future. Credit:Nic Walker

The former PM had a simple wish, but it wasn't granted. What happened next has raised three big questions over his future.

Normal text size Larger text size Very large text size As Tony Abbott rose to his feet at the Balgowlah RSL in Sydney's leafy northern beaches, the former prime minister had a simple hope: to be re-endorsed without drama. Seated before him in the Seaforth Function Room last Friday were Liberal Party diehards - an eclectic and uneasy mix of 100 retirees, business figures, former MPs and young apparatchiks from opposing factions. Striding in with a smile following the demise of Malcolm Turnbull, the veteran MP requested the nod from members to return to Parliament for a ninth term. But first he had something to get off his chest. "You all know we've had a bit of trauma, and I've got to say no one knows better than I do just what a tough, rotten business it is when the leader changes," Abbott said. "And having borne the burdens of the prime ministership, I respect Malcolm Turnbull for doing what he did to serve our country and whatever bad history there may be between me and him, as far as I'm concerned he is from this point on a respected former prime minister. "Notwithstanding tweets from New York, he is a respected former prime minister." As some audience members groaned (one was heard muttering 'f--k you'), Abbott went on to note he felt "vindicated" by some of the new policy directions of Prime Minister Scott Morrison. He finished with a call for a unifying show of force behind his preselection: "I think tonight we can give a great example to our country, and a great example to our party, by showing that we are capable of rallying together, uniting together, and giving our country the leadership it wants."


The request was straightforward, but some members fed up with his role in Canberra's leadership convulsions and immovable conservative views on social issues were in no mood to comply. Shortly after his war cry, 32 per cent of members voted against endorsing his preselection. One in three preferred an empty chair to a former prime minister and Liberal leader. Abbott walked out of the RSL club a weakened figure, and facing questions over his political future. Tony Abbott won the blue ribbon Sydney seat of Warringah in 1994. Credit: Twenty-five years earlier, the former journalist and political staffer won Warringah in a byelection. Ringed by beaches, harbours and national parks, the electorate was dubbed "The Garden of Eden" by Abbott, a one-time trainee priest who was quickly touted as leadership material. As Abbott stood in Parliament to deliver his maiden speech, he gave a prescient warning of his political style. "When authority first came to the Warringah district, the inhabitants showed what they thought of government policies by spearing Governor [Arthur] Phillip in the shoulder. I hope I can be a similar goad to government, at least until such time as government serves my electorate better." A senior Liberal who opposed Turnbull's toppling of Abbott in 2015 says "goading" doesn't go close to describing the force of Abbott's interventions: "Tony's actions are destructive, selfish, and driven by bitterness and revenge. Unfortunately, that has proven very effective for him in the past." On his future, Liberal MPs, branch members and some of Abbott's own factional allies believe three options lie ahead for the former PM after last week's preselection jolt. Under the first, Abbott would contest the next election but encounter a popular independent candidate and suffer a career-ending swing. Northern Beaches Council mayor Michael Regan is considered a threat and while he took a swipe this week at the "power plays and ego-driven games taking place in Canberra", did not rule out running. But Abbott's backers argue Regan would be very weak in the ritzy south of the electorate, where Abbott is particularly popular.


Strategists believe the seat's demographics have shifted under Abbott's reign and say many constituents do not share their MP's conservative views on social issues such as the Paris climate accord, renewable energy subsidies and same-sex marriage. Warringah recorded a 75 per cent vote in favour of same-sex marriage in last year's postal survey - the 10th-highest vote in the country and the fifth-highest of the Liberal Party's 76 seats in Parliament. In an environment where there is plenty of speculation about - but little evidence of - Abbott's local unpopularity, the strength of that result shocked conservatives and gave his detractors cause for hope. "That vote, the strength of that vote in Warringah, was probably the first time people realised exactly what is happening in seats like this," says one Liberal Party veteran. "It helped to expose the myth that the base of the Liberal Party is monolithic and all watch Sky News 'after dark'." Warringah is the nation's richest electorate based on median weekly household income, but the majority of wealth is concentrated in the southern end of the seat. The average age in the electorate is 39, and more women live there than the state and national average. Tony Abbott after finishing The Cole Classic in Manly, a suburb in his electorate. Credit:Salty Dingo In an interview with Fairfax Media, Abbott was less convinced the electorate had shifted around him: "I don't think it has changed. I think it has always been the case that there are people who are strongly supportive of a smaller government, free market agenda but not so supportive of a socially conservative agenda." Abbott faced a major test at the 2001 election from Peter Macdonald, a GP and former independent member for the state seat of Manly. Macdonald nabbed 27.77 per cent of the primary vote - a record high for any candidate against Abbott. But Abbott's primary vote held above 50 per cent, ensuring his safety. Abbott built the vote back to 60.89, before it plunged to 51.65 at the last election. A similar swing next year would wipe him out.


ABC election analyst Antony Green says any successful independent would need to steal primary votes directly from Abbott. Green suggests if his primary fell six points to 45 per cent - a smaller fall than the last election - the former prime minister could be defeated. "It would need an independent who can push Abbott's vote under 50 per cent," Green says. "They've got to walk in with a high profile." Green says the closest example was the regional Victorian seat of Indi in 2013, when controversial former Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella's primary vote dropped seven points to 44.68. Popular independent candidate Cathy McGowan received 31 per cent of the primary vote and snatched the seat on preferences. Macdonald has no intention of running again but says demographics have changed since his 2001 campaign and there's "never been a better opportunity" for an independent to sink Abbott. "I'm sure he may have had some sympathy towards him when he was unfairly unseated by Turnbull, but at the time he claimed he wasn't going to be a menace and I think people were tolerant towards him for a little while. But they are now absolutely appalled and disappointed at his churlish behaviour.


"I mix a lot in the community, I talk to a lot of people. I'm not a kingmaker but I still have a network and there's a feeling that 'this is time'." Macdonald says Liberals have been calling to discuss who could stand as a credible independent candidate for Warringah. But any challenger would need to brace for a ferocious fight from Abbott, who has a proven track record of being a tough and savvy political opponent. Before the 2016 election, Liberal Party polling found Abbott could lose the blue-ribbon seat to former Australian Idol host James Mathison, with only 44 per cent saying they would vote Liberal. But that number plunged when people were asked if they would vote for Abbott. Turnbull intervened and he and former NSW premier Mike Baird bombarded the seat with robocalls and mailouts. Abbott didn't dispute the polling's existence but denounced its leaking as "sneaky" and "absolutely corrosive of trust". He noted just three people had the document. One of them was then Liberal Party federal director Tony Nutt. The other two were Turnbull and Abbott. The second and widely discussed scenario for Abbott's future involves Warringah sending him back to Canberra for a ninth term - only for him to lose a preselection challenge from the Liberal Party's increasingly influential moderate faction. The left and right tug of war that ripped apart the Coalition in Canberra last month is also playing out locally in the branches. In a carefully executed sweep through Sydney's northern beaches and northern suburbs, moderate forces have spent the last three years overthrowing conservative incumbents. Backed by kingmaker lobbyist Michael Photios, the march towards Manly has seen Jason Falinski oust Bronwyn Bishop in Mackellar, and Trent Zimmerman defeat the conservatives' John Hart to replace Joe Hockey in North Sydney. Moderate Felicity Wilson also won preselection for the state seat of North Shore, and James Griffin defeated conservative challengers to replace Baird in Manly. In two of those fights, the moderates fended off a push from Abbott's ally, Walter Villatora.

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