The first thing to know about the Environmental Protection Agency’s important proposed power plant emissions rules is this: they’re not the same for everyone. The EPA’s expectations of states vary depending on their existing energy combinations, the age of coal “fleets” (which are a target for phasing out), and political considerations.

While the Obama administration wants a 30% nationwide CO2 emissions cut by 2030, that looks very different depending on the state. Washington will have to cut its emissions by 72%, and, by 2030, will be allowed to emit only 215 pounds of CO2 per MWh generated. North Dakota will have to cut emissions by just 11%, and can emit 1,783 pounds of CO2 per MWh generated in the state.





“It doesn’t treat the states equally, it grades on a curve. But it seems to be calculated to nudge each of the regions along on a trajectory that they’re on already on,” says Steve Piper, an associate director at SNL Financial, which put together the map below. “It suggests a political consideration that there’ll be less resistance if the states are encouraged to take the steps they’ve already taken.”

With Piper’s help, we picked out five states to show the differences.

California, which is expected to cut its emissions 23% by 2030, already has an aggressive renewables target. Last year, it introduced a mandate for a 33% clean power by 2020. The interesting in the EPA regulations is how nearby states might follow. “The the rest of the west is somewhat expected to apply a similar trajectory to renewables–not necessarily 33%, but it’s EPA judgement that the capability is there,” says Piper. “The rest of the west is being pulled along by California, in having more renewables potentially by this regulation.”

Arizona is one of those states. It is expected to cut emissions by 52%–the second highest level of any state. The state’s Department of Environmental Quality is now considering legal action over the target.

Texas also has a big target: 39% by 2030. “Texas built a substantial amount of new coal from 2000-2010, putting it in a position to need a high percentage of reductions against its baseline,” Piper says.