Biden pulled away with a large margin of victory on Saturday that took place in the Palmetto state primary. It’s the one state that the Biden campaign had been banking on to go big or go home and a state that should be instrumental in the revival of Biden’s waning campaign for president. But, is it too late? Was the South Carolina primary simply too late for Biden to revive his campaign for president before Super Tuesday? Here’s why I think that might be the case.

Super Tuesday is a mere three days after the South Carolina primary which means that there will be very little time for the polls to adjust if there is a Biden surge following the contest. Yet there’s a number of reasons why Biden may still not be out of the woods when it comes to the Super Tuesday contests.

Firstly, Biden won’t have a slew of high black voter states available to him on Super Tuesday. At absolute best he’ll have North Carolina and Alabama with Tennessee and Arkansas to a lesser degree. This will likely be the states that Biden will win on Super Tuesday, or at least have the best chance of winning. But those are some very mid-tier states when it comes to delegates those four states have 257 delegates total. For contrast, Texas has 228 and California has 415. Yet, as this isn’t the Republican primaries, even if he wins those states in the popular vote he’ll only get a portion of those delegates. If Sanders or anyone else can run close margins with him, then a delegate tie in each state may be likely. Regardless, many of the large states up for grabs that night have large Hispanic populations, like California and Texas, where Sanders has been polling overwhelmingly with Hispanic voters. This leads me into my next point.

California and Texas, two of the largest contests, are up for grabs Tuesday night. Biden has been polling relatively close to Sanders in Texas but he’s way behind in California, the largest state for delegates. Of course, Super Tuesday is more than just Texas and California. However, Biden certainly isn’t going to win in Vermont, Maine, Minnesota or Massachusetts and that’s a problem for Biden if he wants Super Tuesday to be seen as a continuation of his momentum from South Carolina. Super Tuesday may end up acting as a bit of a speed bump for Biden writ large.

Finally, and the point I believe is the most important, early votes have already started coming in and by a lot to boot. Some estimates have more than two million early votes in for Texas and three million for California with many other Super Tuesday states having relatively high early turnouts as well. This is not good news for Biden to say the least and may very well mute his win in South Carolina significantly. If people were voting based off the results of the first three contests, then Biden would seem more like a mid-tier candidate rather than an upper-tier one like Sanders. Biden came fourth, fifth and a distant second in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada respectively and that’s not an amazing track record for the former front-runner.

It’s certainly not impossible for Biden to win big on Super Tuesday, but I believe that he’s got a lot of things working against him. From states that have smaller black populations to the high early voter turnout that happened well ahead of South Carolina, this is a recipe for Biden to be disadvantaged rather than advantage by the largest contest of the primary season.

Curtis Fric Owner and operator of the non-partisan Polling Canada and Polling USA accounts. See author's posts