PARIS — More than two years after the revolt broke out against the regime of Bashar al-Assad, it is fair to say that Russia’s policies are succeeding, whereas the West’s analysis and actions are failing.

Thanks in large part to Russia’s military, political and diplomatic support, the Syrian dictator’s regime has not fallen and his repression continues relentlessly, unimpeded by a paralyzed U.N. Security Council. The West has been unable to shape events on the ground, with its “red lines” apparently fading into insignificance.

But Russia’s success to date, while significant, will be short-lived. President Vladimir Putin has made his point, and it is now in Russia’s own interest to cooperate with the West and help foster an end to the bloodshed in Syria.

Not only is the opposition militarily and politically disunited, but its most ferocious jihadist elements are in the ascendant, benefiting from the weaponry liberally provided by their rival patrons in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. After Afghanistan and Iraq, an easy-to-get-to Syria has also become the primary magnet for large numbers of foreign jihadist wannabes, who may return armed and trained to commit acts of terror in the West. That development makes it increasingly unappealing for the West to send arms to the rebellion, and it is doubtful whether the recent lifting of the European Union’s arms embargo will be (or should be) followed through.