2018 Tennessee Primary Preview

This Thursday we kick off our Act 2 of primary season, with the Tennessee primary; there is also a general election in Shelby County. Polls close at 8p ET Thursday and we will be liveblogging.

TN-Gov (R, D) : At the top of the ballot is the gubernatorial race; both sides have primaries for the seat, which is open as Gov. Bill Haslam (R) is termed out.

Rep. Diane Black (R) is the best-known candidate in the field. Black has represented a district covering Nashville’s northern and eastern suburbs and rural areas to the east for four terms. She also has a compelling personal story of growing up poor and being a single mother. Black has been a mainstream conservative and risen to leadership as House Budget Chair. However, in spite of her traditional insidery profile, she has shed that mantle and tacked strongly toward the antiestablishment side in this race, particularly emphasizing her social conservatism. Black also has some self-funding ability, which has allowed her to keep pace with her wealthy major rivals.

Businessman and Haslam Administration official Randy Boyd (R) is Black’s major rival. Boyd was a former CEO of the Invisible Fence company before becoming economic development commissioner for Haslam. Boyd is running as an establishment conservative to even something of a moderate, which might be surprising for a red state. However, Tennessee’s GOP establishment and primary electorate have always been quite moderate, and Boyd is benefiting from that network and his close Haslam ties; he is thought to have the implicit support of the Governor. Boyd could have a significant geographic advantage, as he is the only one of the four who does not hail from metro Nashville, instead coming from the primary-vote-rich Knoxville area. Those advantages have been able to combat Black’s name recognition, and the two are generally roughly tied in recent polling.

Businessman Bill Lee (R) runs a large HVAC contracting company and has had significant self-funding ability. He is running as a generally establishment-leaning conservative with a fiscal conservative emphasis. Lee is probably making the most active push to court rural voters, touting his rural upbringing, which could be a viable niche as all four candidates live in cities or suburbs. However, he doesn’t have Black’s name recognition or Boyd’s establishment ties. Thus, Lee was polling behind his two main rivals. That said, there is a sense that he might have had a late surge as Black and Boyd hit each other agressively in recent weeks.

State House Speaker Beth Harwell (R) was initially considered likely to be a strong candidate for her strong insider pull at the Capitol. Harwell has represented the upscale southern part of Nashville for three decades, and as Speaker has been a mainstream establishment conservative with a fiscal issues focus. She has had good fundraising and However, her campaign has never really gotten off the ground, as her bland establishment conservatism has proven unexciting. Harwell is also the only one of the four major gubernatorial candidates who is not wealthy enough to self-fund. Thus, she has generally been polling poorly.

There are also three Some Dudes in the GOP race. The race has been nasty and expensive all around. Overall, CW has been pegging it as a Black vs. Boyd contest with no clear favorite between the two, though Lee’s self-funding may enable him to have a slight chance to surprise.

Democrats have their first seriously contested primary for the Tennessee Governor’s seat since 1994. The front-runner is ex-Nashville Mayor Karl Dean (D), who served two terms before terming out in 2015. Dean was known as mayor as a business-friendly moderate liberal, particularly on fiscal issues. He is continuing to run in that mold for this race, hoping to follow in the footsteps of his predecessor as Nashville Mayor, ex-Gov. Phil Bredesen (D). Dean’s pragmatic moderate positioning could make him a formidable general election candidate, however, he seems a poor fit for the Dem base even in the red state, which could leaven an opening to his left.

Dean’s rival is State Rep. Craig Fitzhugh (D), the House Minority leader. Fitzhugh has represented a rural district north of Memphis for a quarter-century, holding on as the once solidly-ConservaDem area became more GOP-friendly. He is running to Dean’s left, particularly on economic issues, preaching a kind of blue-collar left-wing populism that once sold well in the south but went extinct as the region shifted to the GOP. Fitzhugh has a key endorsement from the teachers’ union.

There is also a non-serious Some Dude on the Dem side. Dean is generally thought the clear front-runner for Dems, though Fitzhugh could have a chance to surprise on grassroots enthusiasm. In the general, Tennessee’s deep-red lean means that the GOP nominee will likely start out as the favorite, though both Dean and Fitzhugh are credible candidates with a chance to pull the upset. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Likely R.

TN-Sen : The other statewide election is for the US Senate seat being vacated by retiring incumbent Bob Corker (R). The race does not have seriously-contested primaries.

Seven-term Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) is the presumptive GOP nominee and the favorite for the seat. Blackburn is a mainstream grassroots-friendly conservative from the Nashville suburbs, who has generally been a front-bencher within the GOP caucus. Her strong rapport with the grassroots was enough to foreclose any serious primary opposition. However, Blackburn is somewhat to the right of the state’s relatively moderate GOP establishment, which has left her open to what could be a surprisingly serious general election challenge.

2000s-era ex-Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) is attempting to make a comeback in this race. Bredesen was a very well-regarded Governor, but he has not been on a ballot in 12 years and a state race is very different from a federal one in a red state.

While some polls have shown the race competitive or even with a slight Bredesen lead, CW is that Blackburn is still a moderately strong favorite unless the environment deteriorates significantly for the GOP. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean R.

TN-2 (R) : TN-2 is an R+19 seat covering the bulk of the Knoxville metro area as well as a small amount of rural territory to the northeast. The seat is open as longtime incumbent Jimmy Duncan (R) is retiring. There are four major GOP contenders for the seat.

Knox CE Tim Burchett (R) was considered the clear front-runner when he entered the race; indeed, it is thought that Burchett was able to coax Duncan into retirement with the threat of a primary challenge. Burchett is very well-known from his long political career, including a decade and a half in both chambers of the legislature before eight years as County Executive for Knox County, which comprises some 60% of the seat. Burchett has raised the most from donors in the field, and has strong connections to the area’s GOP establishment. However, like much of the area’s GOP establishment, Burchett is a relatively moderate, chamber-of-commerce type Republican. Given that this is a very conservative area, that position has led to an opening for three candidates running to his right.

State Rep. Jimmy Matlock (R) is the best-funded candidate in the field, thanks to moderate self-funding. He has raised slightly more than Burchett overall, though slightly less from donors. Matlock has represented a deep-red seat in Knoxville’s southwest exurbs for twelve years. He is a more ideological conservative than Burchett, with some antiestablishment tendencies. However, he does have some significant institutional support, most notably Duncan’s endorsement. Matlock has been under fire for his poor legislative attendance record, as well as for some suspisciously-timed ads promoting his tire business that sound a lot like campaign commercials in all but name.

National Young Republicans Chair and attorney Jason Emert (R) has become a factor in the race thanks to $350K in self-funding. Emert has strong institutional connections from his party service, and is attempting to run as the most Trumpist candidate in the field. He also got significant free media for an ad in which he literally builds a wall. However, his funding and institutional support trails both Burchett’s and Matlock’s. He has a chance to win, but more likely is that his candidacy could work to Burchett’s advantage by splitting the antiestablishment vote with Matlock.

Veteran and National Guard officer Ashley Nickloes (R) has had poor fundraising, though enough to run a credible campaign. Nickloes has also received significant buzz for her compelling biography, strong charisma and campaign skills. She somewhat straddles the establishment-antiestablishmen t divide. However, her name recognition, institutional connections, and fundraising trail her main rivals, and thus Nickloes looks like a long-shot to prevail.

There are also three Some Dudes in the race. Overall, CW seems to be pegging this race as Burchett being a very slight favorite over Matlock, with Emert having a chance to surprise. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

TN-6 (R) : TN-6 is an R+24 seat covering Nashville’s northern and eastern suburbs as well as rural mountain territory to the east around Cookeville. The seat is open as incumbent Diane Black (R) is running for Governor and there are three serious GOP candidates.

Gov. Sundquist Administration official John Rose (R) is by far the best-funded candidate, thanks to over $2M in self-funding; he has also fundraised well from donors. Rose has had a diverse career in business as a farmer and software executive, interrupted by a brief tenure as state Agriculture Commissioner in the early 2000s. In spite of his relatively establishment-friendly biography, Rose has in this race run more toward a position straddling the line between establishment and antiestablishment Republicans. His cash advantage likely makes Rose the one to beat in the race, though he does face two serious rivals.

Retired judge Bob Corlew (R) has raised almost nothing from donors, but he has been well-funded thanks to $1.5M in self-funding. Corlew served for three decades as an elected local judge, during which time he was best-known for presiding over a trial over technical issues related to zoning for a mosque, during which some observers interpreted his stances as overly hostile to the mosque. Corlew has tacked toward the establishment side in this race.

State Rep. Judd Matheny (R) has represented a rural seat at the district’s southern tip for sixteen years as an antiestablishment conservative. Matheny entered the race even before Black announced a bid for Governor. He has had mediocre but credible fundraising, though that has put him far behind both Rose and Corlew in the cash department thanks to his rivals’ self-funding. Matheny has a major endorsement from the NRA though, which could combat his cash disadvantage.

There are also two Some Dudes in the race. Overall, Rose looks like the clear front-runner, but both Corlew and Matheny could have chances to pull the upset. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

TN-8 (R) : TN-8 is an R+19 seat with its population based in the Memphis suburbs; it covers most of the white-majority parts of the Tennessee Memphis area. The seat also includes the Jackson area and rural territory at the state’s northwest corner.

Incumbent David Kustoff (R) is seeking a second term. A former US Attorney, Kustoff won a narrow plurality in a crowded field for this open seat two years ago. He has generally been a backbench establishment conservative in Congress, with his most notable moment being when he was threatened by a woman in a politically-motivated road rage incident last year. Kustoff’s profile is a good fit for the seat, but he does face a primary rematch with the man who came in second two years ago, falling short to Kustoff 27-23.

Perennial candidate and ex-Shelby County commissioner George Flinn (R) is once again trying for this seat. Flinn has a very strong non-political resume, as a wealthy radiologist who also owns a regional chain of radio stations. He also won a term as a county commissioner in 2006. However, Flinn just has never quite learned the concept of when to sit out a cycle or how to pick a race, as since 2010 he has lost two runs for this seat and one for TN-9, a US Senate primary, and a State Senate race. Flinn would have been written off long ago if not for his habit of continually self-funding absurd amounts of money ($3M in this race). But in the old adage of spending more vs. spending smarter, Flinn comes down on the side of spending more, as his ads have often been amateurish and his own campaign skills mediocre. Thus, he is unlikely to pull an upset in this race.

With Kustoff’s incumbency, he is likely to be a strong favorite, though Flinn’s immense cash means this race should be at least worth an incidental look. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

One other House Race in the Volunteer State is worth an incidental mention.

TN-7 is an R+20 seat covering the Clarksville area, Nashville’s wealthy southern suburbs of Williamson County, and a large chunk of rural territory west of Nashville. The seat is open as incumbent Marsha Blackburn (R) is running for Senate. Quite surprisingly for a Safe open seat, the GOP primary is totally uncontested. State Sen. Mark Green (R), a physician and veteran, has been a grassroots conservative favorite in his six years representing the Clarksville area. His bid to become Army Secretary was torpedoed by liberal opposition, but he is looking likely to get a pretty good consolation prize in the form of this seat. Two Dems are in the race; both have fundraised somewhat credibly but face incredibly uphill odds in the deep-red seat. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Safe R.

Shelby County, TN : Shelby County covers essentially all the Tennessee portion of the Memphis area, including the city and its (middle-class) northeastern and (wealthy) eastern suburbs. Anchored by Memphis (which contains 2/3 of its population), Shelby County has a population of 940K, roughly half black and half white. Unsurprisingly, it is solidly blue in Presidential elections, with a PVI of D+12. However, Republicans are far more competitive in local races thanks to gaping disparities in both off-cycle turnout and candidate quality for local races. Today, there is a general election for the County Executive post, which is open as incumbent Mark Luttrell (R) is termed out. County Trustee (Treasurer) David Lenoir (R) is the GOP nominee. He has raised the most by far and has the endorsement of Luttrell and multiple local officials. Lenoir is running as a mainstream to slightly moderate establishment conservative, and his political base is in the wealthy and vote-rich eastern suburbs. For Democrats, State Sen. Lee Harris (D) is the nominee. He has strong establishment connections and is running on a relatively standard-issue mainstream liberal platform. Harris is considered a rising star on the area’s surprisingly thin Dem bench and considered one of the few Memphis black Democrats who can appeal to moderate voters. However, he has been criticized as a ladder-climber with few accomplishments in office. The race has been seen as highly competitive, especially with amped-up Dem turnout and the fact that this year will see the first seriously-contested Dem gubernatorial primary since 1994. Thus, there is overall no clear favorite.

Legislative Specials : There are also two legislative specials today, both Louisiana Rules Top Two, one high-profile preliminary in Texas and one runoff in Mississippi.

TX-SD-19 is a D+5 seat roughly analogous to the congressional TX-23, stretching from the suburban south and west sides of San Antonio to rural West Texas, plus a bit more of the poor, heavily Hispanic south side of urban San Antonio. The seat is vacant as the prior incumbent, Carlos Uresti (D), was convicted of corruption. Four Democrats and three Republicans are facing off. However, both of the best-funded candidates are Dems. Ex-US Rep. Pete Gallego (D) represented most of the district from 2012 to 2014, though his two subsequent congressional losses have tarnished his star somewhat. He also hails from the relatively vote-poor rural west of the district. Gallego’s main rival is State Rep. Roland Guttierez (D), who has represented part of San Antonio’s poor southeast side for a decade.Guttierez has some liabilities of his own, however, as he has a long history of tax liens, breach of contract suits, and other financial problems. There are few ideological differences between the two as both are moderate liberals. The other two Dems seem longer-shots. State Rep. Tomas Uresti (D), brother of Carlos, lost his State House seat in the primary this year and is now seeking to fall upward; however, he is not running a particularly serious campaign and his last name is not exactly an asset. The final Dem, attorney Charlie Urbina-Jones (D), seems non-serious. There are also three Republicans in the race. 2016 nominee Pete Flores (R) seems the most serious, as he took 40% two years ago, though he has raised very little this time. He faces two other Republicans, school board member Jay Alaniz (R) and 2018 State House candidate Carlos Antonio Raymond (R), who seem long-shots. There is also a Libertarian in the race. Overall, it looks like a runoff is very likely, and any two of Gallego, Gutierrez, and Flores could advance. MS-LD-77 is a rural R+18 seat around Mendenhall, southeast of Jackson. Puckett councilman Hayes Patrick (R) led rancher Price Wallace (R) 34-29 in the first round three weeks ago; there is no clear favorite in the runoff.

Flip over for TN Legislative Primary Previews!

Tennessee Senate :

TN-SD-2 (R) is an R+27 seat in the Smoky Mountain foothills south of Knoxville around Maryville and Gatlinburg. Appointed incumbent Art Swann (R), a former State Rep., has strong name recognition and establishment support. However, he is facing a serious challenge from antiestablishment-leaning veteran Scott Williams (R). Swann looks like a slight favorite but an upset is possible. The third Republican, businessman Wes Maples (R), seems a longer-shot.

TN-SD-13 (R) is an open R+13 seat around Smyrna and Murfreesboro in Nashville’s southeast suburbs. Rutherford CE Ernest Burgess (R), who is more establishment-oriented, is facing off with antiestablishment-leaning State Rep. Dawn White (R). Both are well-known and well-funded, and there is no clear favorite. The primary winner will be favored over graphic designer Kelly Northcutt (D).

TN-SD-19 (D) is a D+31 seat covering northwestern Nashville, downtown, and small parts of the southeast side. Four Democrats are facing off. The two front-runners seem to be State Rep. Brenda Gilmore (D), a liberal longtime pol, and pastor Howard Jones (D), who is more moderate and has the endorsement of the outgoing incumbent. There is no clear favorite between the two. Two others, ex-Nashville councilwoman Sandra Moore (D) and nonprofit exec and 2014 Indie candidate George Thomas (D), who took 9% of the vote four years ago, seem like longer-shots but could surprise.

TN-SD-27 (R) is an R+15 seat covering the Jackson area and including a strip of rural areas to the northwest corner of the state. Incumbent Ed Jackson (R) is facing a rematch with 2014 candidate and Dyer County commissioner Brandon Dodds (R). Jackson defeated Dodds by 18 points for the open seat four years ago and is thus likely the favorite again, though an upset may be a possibility as Dodds is running to Jackson’s right.

TN-SD-29 (D) is an open D+33 seat covering the Whitehaven area of southern Memphis, the downtown area, and the middle-class white northern exurb of Millington. State Rep. Raumesh Akbari (D) should be a strong favorite to move to the upper chamber over Shelby County commissioner Justin Ford (D). Ford comes from a very prominent memphis political family, but his name has lost a lot of its pull in recent years with multiple corruption scandals. Ford himself also pled guilty to domestic violence last year. Thus, Akbari seems the clear favorite.

TN-SD-31 (D) is an R+3 seat covering the largely wealthy eastern part of Memphis, the upscale suburb of Germantown, and the rapidly-bluing mixed-race middle-class suburb of Cordova (technically part of the City of Memphis). Three Democrats are vying to take on incumbent Brian Kelsey (R) in a competitive general for this left-trending seat. Graduate student Gabby Salinas (D) has a very compelling story of being a Bolivian immigrant who beat a childhood cancer at Memphis’s St. Jude Hospital and returned to work there as a researcher. Salinas is likely favored over hospital chaplain David Weatherspoon (D), though Weatherspoon is also serious and could pull the upset. The third Dem seems non-serious.

TN-SD-33 (D) is a D+34 seat covering the southeast part of Memphis east of the airport as well as parts of the inner city and a few middle-class parts of East Memphis. Incumbent Reginald Tate (D), who is somewhat moderate, is facing a challenge from his left in nurse and businesswoman Katrina Robinson (D). The incumbent should be favored but an upset may be possible.