SPC AC 190726 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... A threat for a tornado or two may exist across parts of the middle/upper Texas Coast on Monday in association with Tropical Cyclone Beta. ...Coastal Texas... Tropical Cyclone Beta is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to approach the TX Coast as a hurricane on Monday, with a northward turn along/near the coast Monday night. Some 00Z guidance suggests that mid to perhaps upper 70s surface dewpoints will spread inland across parts of the middle/upper TX Coast through the period. Strong low-level shear should also be present, mainly in the northeastern quadrant of Beta's circulation. With that said, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement of Beta on Monday, and a more eastward position over the Gulf of Mexico would reduce the chance for greater low-level moisture to move onshore and lessen the corresponding severe potential. Even with this uncertainty, there is enough of a signal in various deterministic guidance that a favorable overlap of modest instability and enhanced east-southeasterly low-level winds should occur somewhere along the middle/upper TX Coast Monday into Monday night. If this scenario occurs, then isolated low-topped supercells in outer rain bands capable of producing a tornado or two appear possible. 5% severe probabilities and a Marginal Risk have therefore been included to account for this potential. ..Gleason.. 09/19/2020 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z