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There have certainly been surprises at the end of the annual Oscar telecast’s the past decade. “Green Book” wasn’t necessarily a given to win versus “Roma.” “Moonlight” was a joyful surprise over what was believed was an ineveitable winner In “La La Land.” And some believed “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” could absolutely overtake “The Shape of Water.” In terms of competitive races for weeks on end, however, there were really only two true races after the nominations were announced during that span: “12 Years A Slave” vs. “Gravity” in 2014 and “Birdman” vs. “Boyhood” the following year. Earlier in the century, well, things were more interesting.

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“The Departed” vs. “Babel” vs. “Little Miss Sunshine” was a thing in 2007 with each studio thinking they had a shot at the big prize. “Chicago” vs. “Gangs of New York” vs. “The Pianist” was absolutely down to the wire in 2003 (so much so many thought if the latter was released earlier it could have overtaken the Miramax musical down the stretch). But what’s on tap right now? At the start of a new decade? Well, Oscar hasn’t seen anything like this in quite awhile.

After Monday’s Oscar nominations and based on historical precedent there are now six films that legitimately could win Best Picture. That’s right, six. Of course, that will all change after this weekend’s PGA and SAG Awards are handed out, but for this brief week, six nominees have almost as good a shot as any other. Let’s look at the field, shall we?

“Joker,” which leads all films with 11 nominations has the four key branches: Director, Best Actor (Acting Branch), Adapted Screenplay (Writers Branch) and Editing. It also has a BAFTA nomination for Best Film. It has a SAG nomination for Joaquin Phoenix‘s performance and a PGA nod for Best Picture. It’s missing a SAG ensemble honor and a DGA Award nomination which is notable.

“Once Upon A Time in Hollywood” has 10 nominations overall but just three of the key branches: Director, Acting (Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor) and Original Screenplay. It does not have what is considered key to win Best Picture, an Editing nomination. However, it also has a BAFTA Award nomination for Best Film, a PGA nod for Best Picture and a DGA nod for Best Director. On the SAG side it has nominations for both Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt as well as an Ensemble nomination. It also won the Golden Globe for Best Picture – Musical or Comedy if you think that publici relations moment means anything.

“The Irishman,” in theory, has it all beginning with the four key branches: Director, two Supporting Actor nominations (Acting Branch), Adapted Screenplay and Editing. It also has the BAFTA Award nomination for Best Film, a DGA nod for Best Director, a PGA nom for Best Picture, a SAG Ensemble nomination and SAG nods for Joe Pesci and Al Pacino.

“Parasite” has three key branches including Directing, Original Screenplay and Editing. It’s also a BAFTA Award nominee for Best Film, a DGA Award nominee, a PGA Award nominee and, shockingly, a Best Ensemble nominee at the SAG Awards. Does the latter make up for not earning an individual Oscar acting nod? Or does winning that honor make up for it? Ponder. Bong Joon Ho’s drama is only the 12th non-English language film to earn a Best Picture nomination and is also the International Film category frontrunner. And, most importantly, no non-English film has ever won Best Picture. As “Roma” learned last year, that’s one feat that’s very hard to pull off.

“Jojo Rabbit” has almost everything you need from Oscar to win it all except a directing nod. It has a Supporting Actress nod, Editing and Adapted Screenplay. It does, however, have a DGA Award nomination along with a PGA Award nod, SAG Ensemble and SAG Supporting Actress noms. It does not have a BAFTA Best Film nomination.

Despite 10 nominations overall (same as “Irishman” and “Once Upon”) the WWI thriller “1917” has only two of the major categories: Directing and Original Screenplay. The Sam Mendes drama is also nominated for the BAFTA Award for Best Film, the PGA Award and the DGA Award. It took home the Golden Globe for Best Film – Drama, if that means anything.

Again, after the PGA Awards and SAG Awards this weekend this list of contenders should widdle down. Maybe. But for a moment, it’s a bit of a gut decision. And that’s apparent in the latest Contender Countdown.

January 17, 2020

1. “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”

Frankly, the less Quentin speaks in front of a camera, the better Sony should feel about pulling this one out.

2. “Parasite”

If the telecast doesn’t play this remix every time someone from the movie wins an award we don’t know what’s right in the world.

3. “The Irishman”

Unfortunately, Netflix is the wildcard in this campaign until the streaming service wins the big prize. Any other studio behind it and it would be the presumptive frontrunner.

4. “Jojo Rabbit”

Could be the “Green Book” of this year in the sense that it’s enough voters “second choice” that it wins in the weighted voting system. And, yes, we’re assuming “Green Book” took the win in that manner and, no, we have no evidence to back it up. Hey, maybe it just helps us sleep at night, OK?

5. “1917”

I mean, is the momentum still there?

6. “Joker”

In theory, it has everything you need to win and 11 nominations, but unless it wins PGA or DGA it just seems like a stretch.

7. “Little Women”

After all the social media drama, Greta Gerwig may go home with a well deserved Adapted Screenplay Oscar to make up for her Directing nomination “snub.”

8. “Marriage Story”

At worst, it should land the Best Supporting Actress Oscar for Laura Dern. Unless, Florence Pugh or Margot Robbie pull of a surprise.

9. “Ford v Ferrari”

The comeback nomination of the year. The party invite might just be the win.