After Andrew MacDonald went down with an injury, defenseman Evgeni Medvedev will get one last chance with the Philadelphia Flyers, and it just might work

Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Andrew MacDonald will miss Wednesday’s pivotal game against the Detroit Red Wings, due to a head injury picked up Sunday against the Penguins. It was an awkward play that was not penalized, nor will there be any supplemental discipline. Either way, MacDonald is out and listed as day-to-day.

This means that, for at least one day, Evgeni Medvedev will come back into the Flyers lineup. Medvedev has mostly been watching from the press box recently. He has only played one game since March 3, and he wasn’t a part of the Flyers recent surge.

It’s been a strange season for Medvedev. As a 33-year old rookie who speaks no English, part of that was expected. What may not have been expected was Medvedev’s excellence as measured in possession statistics, yet his failure to earn any kind of job security on the Flyers’ blue line.

For much of the season, Medvedev was battling Brandon Manning for a gameday spot. While Medvedev had the statistics, Manning won the battle for the spot. Now Medvedev’s performance will be contrasted against Andrew MacDonald, presumably taking MacDonald’s spot besides Shayne Gostisbehere.

Of course, Andrew MacDonald has had a strange season himself. Still near the beginning of a long, lucrative contract, MacDonald was shocked when he was sent down to the AHL at the beginning of this season. He got his chance back with the big team late in the season when the Flyers opened up cap space with a trade, and Michael Del Zotto’s season ended with an injury.

Since rejoining the Flyers, it’s pretty much been the same old Andrew MacDonald. He has the skating and passing tools, but he’s a very passive defender who prefers to sit back and block shots. The result is a guy who doesn’t hit much and has bad possession numbers. What MacDonald has going for him, however, is reliability. Coaches know what they’re going to get from him, and he can eat some minutes.

Given the idiosyncrasies of both players, perhaps the best way to boil down the issue to restrict it by defense partner; Shayne Gostisbehere. Again presuming Medvedev slides right in alongside Ghost, Ghost is a very different player playing with Medvedev. Judging by possession, MacDonald has not been a good partner for Ghost.

Andrew MacDonald joined the Philadelphia Flyers in mid February. Ghost’s possession numbers saw an uptick at first, but are going down to season lows as time has carried on playing with MacDonald.

Comparing the players directly makes a case for Medvedev.

Both of the charts above tell the same story; the Flyers are much more prolific creating goals and shots when Medvedev and Ghost are paired. When playing with MacDonald, Ghost’s Corsi percentage sits at 47% overall, among his worst teammates, while it is 60% with Medvedev (Ghost’s best combination).

The sample size is larger, as Ghost has played 318 5v5 minutes with MacDonald, and only 107 with Medvedev. It was also different points in the Philadelphia Flyers season. As measured by faceoff positional deployment, however, their usage on the ice is nearly identical. Overall, the statistical evidence makes a strong case that playing with Medvedev unlocks Ghost’s offense and leads to better possession.

Corsi isn’t everything. Medvedev will remain an inconsistent rearguard. A game or two in April isn’t going to change a season-long pattern. It’s not really fair to Medvedev either that his final chance as a Flyer may come down to a game or two at the tail-end of the season, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles. Nonetheless, there’s still good reason to believe that Medvedev can come off the bench and be a very good partner for Ghost in a crucial game or two.