It’s one of the biggest mysteries in Republican circles: Why has Sheldon Adelson ― who spent upward of $100 million during the previous presidential campaign ― suddenly stopped pouring huge sums of money into politics?

The conventional wisdom ― that he’s planning to spend millions of dollars to support Marco Rubio but is waiting to see how the Florida senator fares in a few more primaries ― does not explain the severity of Adelson’s political spending freeze, which is more far-reaching than previously known.


According to a dozen donors and operatives who have spoken recently to Adelson or his representatives, the 82-year-old Las Vegas casino mogul hasn’t donated during this election cycle to several of the conservative political groups that have been regular recipients of his largesse. That includes groups that are not engaged in the GOP primary, such as the Koch brothers-backed Americans for Prosperity and the Karl Rove-conceived Crossroads outfits, according to Adelson’s associates.

So far, Adelson and his wife, Miriam, have given relatively small donations of a couple thousand dollars each to about 16 candidates, including Rubio and his rival Ted Cruz, as well as $2.6 million to various federal party committees.

Few of the Adelsons' associates wanted to be quoted talking about the famously temperamental self-made billionaire, who is known for valuing loyalty and holding grudges. But, with Tuesday’s GOP presidential caucuses in his backyard looming, several expressed concern that Adelson’s hesitance could have long-lasting consequences. Time is running short, they say, for major donors to fund an assault to try to slow the momentum of GOP front-runner Donald Trump.

While Adelson, whose political involvement is largely animated by his support for Israel’s defense, is thought to distrust Trump on the issue, an Adelson adviser suggested his boss had no plans to spend big on behalf of — or against — any candidate in the tumultuous GOP primary.

"I don't see any involvement until there is a nominee," the adviser told POLITICO.

If Adelson sticks with that plan — a big "if" given his reputation for writing massive checks with little warning — it could remove a major source of anti-Trump cash and also could hamper Republicans’ general election chances up and down the ballot.

The prospect is a serious source of concern for other Republican megadonors and operatives, who have offered a range of explanations for Adelson's sudden tightening of his purse strings.

“Nobody knows exactly why he’s still on the sidelines or when he might come off,” said one operative with ties to Adelson, “but the party needs him to get in the game before it's too late.”

Sources close to Adelson suggest he doesn't want his cash spent attacking Republicans in a bitter primary, the way it was in 2012, when his family donated more than $20 million to a super PAC boosting Newt Gingrich's long-shot presidential campaign against establishment favorite Mitt Romney. Others cite business concerns, including his company’s whip-lashing stock price and a pending lawsuit that sources say has dominated Adelson’s attention.

The case, involving allegations of impropriety related to his cash cow casino operations in Macau, is set to go to trial in late June, just as the race pivots to the general election, and is expected to require as many as 49 hours of testimony from Adelson. Then there are operatives who suggest he may be withholding massive checks from groups affiliated with the GOP establishment because the party’s congressional leaders didn’t aggressively support an online gambling ban he pushed for in 2014.

And on top of all of it, he and his wife, who plays a major role in his corporate and political affairs, have at times appeared to be divided on the presidential race ― he is leaning toward Rubio, while she is said to favor Cruz. Both candidates are hawkish in their support of Israel, while Rubio has the added advantage of having supported Adelson’s gambling ban. But neither has emerged as a serious threat to Trump, who won a wide victory in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, where Rubio came in second, followed closely by Cruz in third.

Mort Klein, president of the hawkish Adelson-funded nonprofit group Zionist Organization of America said his old friend has long been committed to taking a more deliberative approach than he did in 2012.

“He said all along that he and his wife want to wait and see until what happens after a few primaries before they make a final decision. The last time I spoke to him about this issue was in December, and he said that again to me,” said Klein.

His organization hosted a 2014 dinner at which Cruz received an award for his support of Israel and got to sit next to the Adelsons. On the other end of the spectrum, Klein described Trump as having “no knowledge of the Middle East” and “saying things that aren’t true in any way shape or form.” And he acknowledged there’s some risk in Adelson’s deliberative approach to taking sides in 2016. “As donors like Sheldon wait, Trump may gain momentum. That’s not an unreasonable point, but you’d have to ask Sheldon how he thinks about that.”

An Adelson spokesman declined to answer questions about his boss’s feelings about Trump, his current thinking about the other remaining candidates, or his plans for 2016 political spending more broadly.

The calls for Adelson to enter the race are in some ways the inverse of what was happening at this point four years ago, causing some to wonder whether Adelson learned the wrong lessons from 2012. Back then, Adelson ignored friends and associates who argued that his family's continued stream of checks to the pro-Gingrich super PAC was counterproductive. It was propping up a doomed candidate and hurting the party’s chances of taking back the White House, they warned. Adelson ignored those pleas, explaining to POLITICO that he was supporting the former House speaker, whom he compared to a tasty steak, because “I’m just a loyal guy.”

Houston private equity investor Fred Zeidman, a longtime Adelson friend and fellow GOP mega-donor, was among those urging Adelson to stop funding the pro-Gingrich super PAC. This time around, he said it wouldn’t make sense for Adelson to write a big check to try to stop Trump until a rival candidate emerges as the leading alternative.

“I guess he makes a decision at that point, but at this point, we don’t know who that other candidate would be,” said Zeidman, who supported the since-suspended campaign of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. “And we certainly don’t know about any relationship between Sheldon and Donald Trump.”

Trump has boasted that, because he’s mostly self-funding his campaign, he doesn’t need mega-donors, and he’s blasted his opponents for courting them, contending for instance that Adelson likes Rubio because the casino magnate “feels he can mold [Rubio] into his perfect little puppet.” Yet Trump also has quietly courted megadonors including Adelson, possibly in an effort to keep them from spending against him.

Most of Trump’s remaining rivals for the GOP nomination have flown to Las Vegas to woo the Adelsons, and sources say Rubio continues to call Sheldon Adelson with regular campaign updates.

An Adelson endorsement of Rubio and a huge super PAC check had been expected as far back as October.

“If you had told me months ago that he would not have made a major play in the presidential race by this point, I would have been shocked,” said a Republican fundraiser who has met with Adelson. “I thought he was going to do it after that Vegas debate,” said the fundraiser, referring to the Republican presidential debate held at Adelson’s Venetian Resort Hotel and Casino in December.

Adelson watched that debate from a seat about eight rows from center stage, and multiple sources present described his reactions and body language as more supportive of Rubio than the other candidates.

Rival campaigns speculate that Adelson may have quietly funneled millions into a non-profit group supporting Rubio that isn’t required to disclose its donors. The group, Conservative Solutions Project, has aired at least $7.1 million worth of ads supporting Rubio, according to the Wesleyan Media Project. Conservative Solutions wouldn’t comment on its donors, but sources who work with Adelson insist he hasn’t donated any big money ― disclosed or otherwise ― to groups playing in the presidential race.

The sources question whether Adelson is withholding support from Rubio because of the assiduous outreach from Cruz’s allies and the senator himself. While considering his presidential bid, he met for two hours with Adelson at New York’s St. Regis Hotel, after sitting with the couple at the Zionist Organization of America dinner.

“Miriam is still singing Cruz’s praises,” said a conservative source who has interacted with the couple, adding that Cruz’s allies have made overtures directly to her. “If Rubio struggles, I think there’s a really good chance that money goes to Cruz world,” the source said.

Rubio allies detected a break in the Adelson derby this month when the Las Vegas Review-Journal, which the Adelson family recently purchased in a mysterious deal, endorsed the Florida senator, citing his electability and “deep personal connections” to Nevada.

The paper’s editorial board wrote that “the Adelsons have detached themselves from our endorsement process, and our endorsement of Sen. Rubio does not represent the support of the family.” But Adelson’s critics have alleged that he purchased the paper to influence public affairs in his home state, including the Macau lawsuit, which arises from a former Sands executive in Macau, Steven Jacobs, who claims he was wrongfully fired after clashing with Adelson over what Jacobs said were illegal demands to investigate government officials in Macau for information that could be used to benefit the company.

Though Adelson and his company, Las Vegas Sands, have said they did nothing wrong and that Jacobs doesn’t deserve any compensation, the stakes are enormous, partly because the case could jeopardize his Nevada casino license.

Adelson and the judge, Elizabeth Gonzalez, have clashed repeatedly over five years of proceedings leading up to the trial. She has reprimanded his lawyers for hiding information and disobeyed her orders, and once scolded Adelson during his testimony, “You don’t get to argue with me."

People who have met with Adelson say he talks about the case often and seems preoccupied with how it's going.

But Klein, the head of the Zionist Organization of America, said Adelson has a tremendous ability to juggle complicated tasks. “I’ve known Sheldon Adelson for almost 20 years. I’ve never seen him distracted from anything. This is a man who can focus on everything he needs to focus on, no matter what is going on. He’s an extraordinary talent. Extraordinary.”

He said Adelson “is focused on all his philanthropy, all his business responsibilities, flying all over the world. The man is over 80 and has energy like a 40-year-old.”

The Adelson family’s ownership of the Review-Journal has added yet another complicated and controversial piece to their portfolio. During the negotiations to buy the paper, its editors and reporters were ordered to look into Gonzalez. Since the purchase has been completed, stories involving Adelson are being changed or spiked almost daily, POLITICO New York reported.

The Houston investor Zeidman said Adelson has “certainly enjoyed” owning media outlets in Israel and conceded he might see the Review-Journal “as some way to exert some influence in his community, but you’re not talking about The New York Times or The Washington Post or anything that influences things nationally.”

Florida developer Mel Sembler, another megadonor Adelson friend, said Adelson was “busy with his new newspaper acquisition,” but declined to comment on why he wasn’t giving. Asked how Adelson was doing generally, though, Sembler said “fabulous.”

Alex Isenstadt contributed to this report.

