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1. Forrest Whitley, RHP

FB CB SL CU CH Control Overall 70 70 60 60 60 50/60 80

Background: In the conversation as one of the better pitching prospects in recent memory. Whitley has the size – 6-foot-7 and 195 – and projection to go along with a high level of electricity pulsing through his right arm that would make Nikola Tesla jealous. The one thing that Whitley hasn’t been able to accomplish in his meteoric career is quite simple: eclipse the 100-inning threshold. The 17th overall pick in 2016, the lanky right-hander’s workload was carefully governed during his first full season of action in 2017. And Whitley got popped for a PED – which he claimed for an unknown substance given to him by a friend to help him stay awake on a long drive – and subsequently suspended 50 games to start last season. He also hit the DL briefly with a mild oblique strain in early July as well. When he was on the mound, which wasn’t often last season, Whitley was…well…Whitley-like. In eight starts with the Corpus Christi Hooks, the Paul Bunyan-esque hurler fanned 34 and walked 11. He compiled a 3.76 ERA and a 3.49 DRA (Deserved Run Average). For his career, Whitley is averaging a whopping 13.3 strikeouts and 3.3 walks per nine innings.

Analysis: Not only does he belong in the conversation for one of the best pitching prospects over the past couple years, but his arsenal is one of the deepest as well – five pitches deep, to be exact. Whitley’s fastball explodes with ease from his hand, sitting comfortably in the mid-90s with incredible late life. He complements the 70-grade, plus-heater with four offspeed offerings – all of which are plus. Whitley’s curveball, an 81-mph pitch, simply buckles knees – a lot of knees. He’ll also mix in a plus slider, a plus cutter (which may be the slider that’s thrown harder), and a fantastic fading, diving changeup, which he throws with deceptive arm speed. Whitley’s control is average, but it’s likely to see another tick up – possibly two – as he continues to develop/gain experience and playing time. He’s a legitimate top-of-the-line caliber arm.

Ceiling: 6.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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2. Kyle Tucker, OF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 60 60/65 50 50 75

Background: The fifth overall pick in the 2015 draft. Tucker, the younger brother of big league outfielder Preston Tucker, continued his rapid ascension through the Astros’ crowded farm system. The 6-foot-4, 190-pound outfielder split his debut between the Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues. He spent time with Quad Cities and Lancaster the following year. And then split the 2017 season between the Carolina and Texas Leagues. Last season, the H.B. Plant High School product squared off against the Pacific Coast League. And he came out on top. In 100 games with the Fresno Grizzlies, Tucker the Younger slugged a scorching .332/.400/.590 with 27 doubles, three triples, and 24 homeruns. He also swiped 20 bags in only 24 total attempts. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 55% and 46%, respectively. Tucker also worked his way into the Astros’ lineup for 28 games last season as well, batting a puny .141/.236/.203 with two doubles and one triple.

Analysis: Ignoring everything else but Tucker’s terrible big league debut last season, consider the following: (Note: keep in mind he hit .141/.236/.203)

Tucker’s average exit velocity, 90.7%, was nearly 4.5 mph higher than the league average.

His hard hit percentage, 45.1%, was nearly 11-percentage points higher than the league average.

And, yet, he barreled only two of the 51 balls he put in play, or roughly 4% – which is 2% below the league.

Not only does Tucker swing it, but he swings it with authority – even in a dreadful big league debut. The former prep star has a chance to five-tool player during his peak years. Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 21-year-old hitters to post at least a 140 wRC+ mark in the Pacific Coast League (min. 350 PA) – listed in descending order: Kyle Tucker, Anthony Rizzo, and Adam Jones. Rizzo, the hulking Cubs first baseman, owns a 131 wRC+ mark in 1,061 big league games. And Jones, the five-time center fielder, is sporting a 107 wRC+ total in 13 seasons.

If he swings it like an All-Star, plays like an All-Star, and carries some elite company…well, then…he must be an All-Star.

Ceiling: 6.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2018

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3. Corbin Martin, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 60 55 60 60 60 65

Background: Mired in Texas A&M’s bullpen as a little-used, oft-times erratic reliever over his freshman and sophomore seasons, Martin, who battled a severe case of the yips when it came to throwing strikes, morphed into a dominant starting pitcher over the course of his junior campaign. In 24 appearances for long-time Head Coach Rob Childress, 13 of which came via the start, Martin tallied an impressive 95-to-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 87.3 innings of work. Houston snagged the lottery ticket in the second round, 56th overall, and signed him to a slightly below-slot deal worth an even million dollars. The 6-foot-2, 200-pound right-hander blew through his debut with a surprising amount of ease, posting a 2.20 ERA with 43 strikeouts and nine walks across 32.2 innings, most of which were spent with the Tri-City ValleyCats. The organization aggressively pushed the former Aggie straight up to the Carolina League to start the year. But that lasted all of four appearances – incredibly dominant appearances, mind you – before spending the rest of the season in Class AA. Martin finished the year with an aggregate 2.51 ERA across 122.0 innings, recording 122 strikeouts and just 35 walks.

Analysis: Martin hardly looks the same pitcher he was coming out of college. He’s not only a consistent strike-thrower, but he’s consistently making pitcher’s pitches – with his entire arsenal. The well-built right-hander barely breaks a sweat throwing his plus-four seam fastball, locating it down and away as well as any pitcher in the minor leagues. His changeup has taken massive strides since his college days, going from an average offering to another plus-pitch. Martin throws it with exceptional arm speed and often has batters way out in front or simply beating it into the ground. His slider, the third plus pitch in his repertoire, doesn’t feature a lot of movement – but it is late movement, which tunnels incredibly well with his fastball. His curveball is a tight, 12-6 breaking ball that falls into the above-average category. Martin very well could ascend upwards of a #2/#3-type starting pitcher at full maturity – especially if he was locating as well as he was in 2018.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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4. Josh James, RHP

FB SL CH Control Overall 75 55 60 50 60+

Background: Late. As in late round draft pick and late-blooming top prospect. James was drafted in the 34th round – the 1,006th overall player chosen, by the way – in the 2014 draft. And he barely moved the prospect needle for the first couple of seasons in pro ball. But slowly, like a snail with a rocket strapped across its back with a long fuse, James plodded along. And then…BOOM! Top prospect status. The firebolt-slinging right-hander split time between three different levels last season, his fifth professional campaign. Between Corpus Christi and Fresno, the 6-foot-3, 206-pound righty racked up a staggering 171 strikeouts – against just 49 walks – in only 114.1 innings of work. James also appeared in six games with Houston, throwing another 23.0 innings with a 29-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. For his minor league career, he’s averaging 9.8 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings with a 3.61 ERA.

Analysis: James’fastball has three separate modes: the get-over-for-strike-one mid-90s offering; the what-the-hell-was-that pitch on the black for strike two; and – of course – the one where the hitter just hears it zoom by. On top of the plus-plus offering, James mixes in a plus, mid-80s slider and a Bugs Bunny-esque, spin-yourself-around changeup. It’ll be interesting to see how the front office handles James moving forward. He’s clearly big league-ready and could very easily slide into a strong position as a middle-of-the-rotation caliber arm. But the club may ultimately fill his potential rotation slot with another veteran. And they could, simply, value his triple-digit heat in the pen more as well.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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Hit Power SB Field Overall 55 60/65 35 50 60+

Background: The Astros’ path to the Houston organization was a bit of an odd journey: The Dodgers originally signed the hulking slugger for $2 million in June of 2016; a month-and-a-half later Los Angeles flipped the Cuban-import to the Astros for dominant, late-inning reliever Josh Fields. Alvarez burst onto the scene with a stellar 2017 season, hitting an aggregate .304/.379/.481 with 17 doubles, three triples, and a dozen homeruns in only 90 games between Quad Cities and Buies Creek. Last season the front office pushed the then-21-year-old prospect up to the toughest minor league challenge, Class AA, and he breezed right through it. And Alvarez spent the second half of the year in the Pacific Coast League. In total, the 6-foot-5, 225-pound first baseman/left fielder slugged a hearty .293/.369/.534 with 21 doubles and 20 homers. His production topped the league average line by 39%, per Weighted Runs Created Plus.

Analysis: The gargantuan prospect is just beginning to tap into his plus-power potential. Never cheated on a hack in his life, Alvarez shows an impressive ability to spray the ball all around the diamond – which includes showcasing his impressive opposite power. The Cuban-import doesn’t swing-and-miss as much as a typical power-hitter does and he’s willing to draw the occasional walk as well. He should team up with Kyle Tucker to provide a boost of nitrous come midseason or if the club gets in trouble with injuries. In terms of peak, Alvarez should settle somewhere around .280/.350/.540 – which is essentially Jesus Aguilar’s performance for the Brewers last season.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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Hit Power SB Field Overall 55 60 30 50 60+

Background: An article by Scott Keepfer of the Greenville News (02/15/2018) had an interesting little story about Beer. Right-hander Paul Byrd, who earned more than $37 million during his 14-year big league career, described a previous encounter with the now 6-foot-3, 195-pound first baseman/outfielder: “I was throwing him sliders, curveballs and change-ups and he would hit them all. And I was thinking, ‘This guy is off the charts.’” Byrd would go on to describe Beer’s future rather succinctly: “I saw an unbelievably sweet, smooth swing. I told him he could hit in the big leagues.” As Keepfer recounted, the three-year Clemson stand out was just 13-years-old at the time. And, so, the legend of Seth Beer was born. The Lambert High School product began his collegiate career sooner than most, graduating high school early in an effort to begin his time with the Tigers. And it proved to be the right move. Beer burst onto the scene with a loud, dramatic arrival: in 62 games for Head Coach Monte Lee, the developing middle-of-the-lineup thumper bashed 13 doubles and 18 homeruns en route to batting a scorching .369/.535/.700. The best part of his dominant showing? The then-19-year-old posted an impeccable 27-to-62 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He spent the ensuing summer playing for Team USA, though his bat cooled considerably (.178/.315/.267). Beer’s production took a noticeable dive during his sophomore campaign for the Tigers two years ago. In 299 trips to the plate, he cobbled together a still impressive .298/.478/.606 triple-slash line, walloping 34 extra-base hits (17 doubles, one triple, and 16 homeruns) while showing his trademark saber-friendly approach at the plate; he finished the collegiate season with a 35-to-64 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Unfortunately, for the 2017 Dick Howser Trophy semifinalist, he once again struggled mightily against elite pitching during his second tenure with Team USA, batting a lowly .232/.368/.304. With enough hype and hoopla surrounding him as a potential #1 overall pick, Beer got off to a frigid start to 2018. Near the end of March he was sporting a lowly .232 batting average, but a mid-season hot stretch more than buoyed his overall numbers: in a career-high tying 63 games, Beer batted .301/.456/.642 with 11 doubles and 22 homeruns; he finished the year with a 36-to-54 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Houston drafted him in the opening round, 28th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $2.25 million. Beer made stops with three separate affiliates during his debut, hitting .304/.389/.496 between his time with Tri-City, Quad Cities, and Buies Creek.

Analysis: Here’s what I wrote about the promising middle-of-the-lineup thumper heading into the draft:

As saber-friendly as any collegiate hitter I’ve seen over the past several years. Beer’s list of accolades includes: being named the first freshman to win the Dick Howser Award, given to the best collegiate player, a two-time All-American, and a Golden Spikes Award finalist. So let’s breakdown how his numbers stack up against recent history. First, let’s take a look at his otherworldly freshman production. Consider the following:

A few interesting notes: ignoring Beer for a moment, six of the remaining 12 hitters – Collins, Gillapise, Hiura, Lewis, Peterson, and Ramsey – were all first round picks. Beer, of course, accomplished this feat as a freshman. Here’s the best news for Beer: he was the only hitter among the group to post a walk percentage north of 20% and a sub-10% strikeout percentage. Now let’s take a look at his work as a sophomore, though let’s focus solely on his peripherals/plate discipline:

Since 2011, here’s a list of Division I hitters to post a 20% walk rate, a sub-12.5% strikeout rate, and an ISO north of .300 (min. 250 PA): Seth Beer, who accomplished it during his freshman and sophomore seasons.

This year his numbers are down – drastically. His patience at the plate is at an all-time low; his power is declined for the second consecutive season. But I like Beer – a lot. Even in a bit of a disappointing season, he’s showing phenomenal plate discipline and power. If he can play a passable left or right field, Beer could be a regular All-Star at the big league level – though there’s some added risk due to his struggles with Team USA. I still think he’s in the running for a Top 5 or Top 10 pick. In terms of big league comps, Beer looks like a poor man’s Kris Bryant or Paul Goldschmidt. Or better yet: an improved version of Eric Thames, the 2017 version. In terms of big league ceiling, I’d think .260/.370/.530.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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FB SL CH Control Overall 65 60 50/55 45/55 60+

Background: My favorite arm in the entire 2017 draft class. Bukauskas, a slight-framed right-hander, was a dominant, consistent ace atop the University of North Carolina’s rotation the majority of three-year tenure. The 6-foot, 196-pound right-hander left the ACC school with a combined 294-to-96 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 242.2 innings of work. Houston grabbed the former Tar Heel in the opening round, 15th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $3.5 million, slightly below the recommended slot bonus. Bukauskas made only three brief starts between the rookie league and short-season ball during his debut, posting a 9-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 10.0 innings. Last season the ill-effects of a Spring Training car accident would interrupt his first full year of action – he would hit the DL in late April for nearly two months – but it wasn’t enough to stop him from reaching the Texas League before the season’s end. In total, the Virginia-native tossed 59.0 innings across five separate levels, fanning a whopping 71 against 24 free passes. He finished the year with an aggregate 2.14 ERA and a 2.51 FIP.

Analysis: Here’s a brief snippet from Bukauskas’ pre-draft analysis from two years ago:

“Easily my favorite pitcher in the entire draft class. The lone knock on Bukauskas is his frame size. With that being said, though, the North Carolina coaching staff has done a fine job limiting his workload throughout his amateur career. Big, big time strikeout ability with better-than-average control. Bukauskas’s production is far more impressive than former Tar Heel – and 2010 seventh overall pick – Matt Harvey. If his likely sub-6-foot frame can prove to handle the rigors of taking the ball every fifth day in professional baseball, he has the potential to blossom into a bonafide frontend starter.”

After a solid, though injury-marred 2018 campaign, there’s nothing to suggest Bukauskas doesn’t ascend toward the top of a big league rotation, not even a slipped disc in his thoracic spine. The former UNC ace attacks hitters with a lively mid-90s fastball that generally hovers in the 95 mph area code. He spots it well and isn’t afraid to challenge hitters in on their hands. His slider, which was viewed as – arguably – the best in the 2017 draft class, adds a second plus weapon to his arsenal. The breaking pitch floats between a traditional slider and a cutter, at times showing my north-south movement. His changeup, which wasn’t thrown frequently in college, flashes above-average. Beyond Bukauskas’ small stature, at least in terms of big league starting pitchers, is whether his control takes another leap forward. His walk rates have been just north of the league average since his days as an amateur, but I ultimately think he winds up with above-average control/command. His mechanics are clean and repeatable. As it stands today, even without a tick up in control, I think he’s quite capable of putting together a Mike Foltynewicz-type performance (circa 2019) where he average 9.9 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 with a sub-3.00 ERA.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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8. Cionel Perez, LHP

FB SL CH Control Overall 65 65 50 50 60+

Background: Houston signed the highly touted Cuban import to a $5.15 million deal in 2016. And roughly two years later the diminutive lefty was working out of the Astros’ bullpen. Perez, who stands a generously listed 5-foot-11 and 170-pounds, looks like a firm breeze would blow him off the mound. Regardless, though, the La Habana, Cuba native put up monster-sized numbers during his second stateside season. In 20 appearances with Corpus Christi and Fresno, 11 of them coming via the start, Perez recorded 89 strikeouts against just 28 walks in 73.2 innings of work. He tallied a barely-there 2.08 ERA and a 2.77 FIP. Perez also tossed an additional 11.1 innings with the big league club as well, recording 12 strikeouts and handing out seven free passes to go along with a 3.97 ERA.

Analysis: Essentially a two-pitch pitcher who will flirt, rarely, with his third. Perez succeeds off of two lethal offerings: a mid-90s fastball and a deadly, mid-80s slider that shows late, hard tilt down-and-in on right-handed hitters. (Note: Many scouting reports indicate he throws a slider and a curveball; I believe they’re one in the same. He’ll just vary the break and velocity.) Perez’s third option – a changeup – is average, at best. The Cuban import has a lightning-quick arm that allows him to throw his fastball without a ton of effort, despite his small stature. Houston started transitioning Perez into a full-time relief role in the second half as the club geared up for a playoff run, but he has the arsenal to ascend to a #2/#3-type status – as long as his sub-6-foot frame allows him to do so. One final note: his slider, by the way, averaged slightly more than 2600 RPMs during his brief big league debut.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2019

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9. Cristian Javier, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 55 55 50/55 55 40/45 65

Background: Part of baseball’s version of Ripley’s Believe It or Not: there were 510 minor league arms that reached the 100-inning threshold last season; Javier, an overlooked prospect heading into 2018, finished first in swinging strike percentage with 17.0%. Fellow Astros arms Brandon Bailey and Peter Solomon finished second and third, by the way. Signed out of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic in 2015, Javier has consistently flashed utter dominance during his first three seasons in pro ball, posting double-digit strikeout rates, though his control’s been trending downward with each passing season. Last season, Javier split time between Quad Cities and Buies Creek, throwing a career best 110.0 innings, posting an otherworldly 146-to-50 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with a 2.70 ERA. He’s averaging a healthy 11.7 strikeouts and 3.4 walks per nine innings.

Analysis: Just another one of these high ceiling, potentially dominant future big league arms that the club has somehow cornered the market on. The slight-framed right-hander offers up a solid repertoire (fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup). Javier’s curveball is a big 12-6 hammer. And his changeup, thrown with phenomenal arm-speed, almost floats to the plate with impressive movement. The control’s been trending in the wrong direction for the past several years, though it plateaued firmly in the below-average category last season. His feel for the strike zone faded down the stretch, likely as result of tiring as he easily surpassed previous workloads. Javier’s a volatile prospect, but he’s the type you bet on though.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2019

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10. Bryan Abreu, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 60 80 N/A N.A 40 50

Background: Moving at a snail’s pace along the development curve. Abreu, a 6-foot-1, 175-pound right-hander, spent two seasons with the club’s foreign rookie league affiliate, another year in both stateside rookie leagues, one full season in the Appalachian League, and – finally – he cracked the New York-Penn and Midwest Leagues last season – his fifth year in the farm system. Splitting time between Tri-City and Quad Cities, the Dominican-born hurler tossed a career high 54.1 innings, recording a whopping 90 strikeouts against 23 walks. He tallied an aggregate 1.49 ERA and a 2.51 FIP. For his – length – career, Abreu’s averaging 11.1 strikeouts and 5.5 walks per nine innings.

Analysis: Prior to last season Abreu’s controlled fell somewhere between bad and craptacular. But things seemed to click for Abreu and the rest, as they say, is history. Some fun facts about his breakout campaign:

He pitched six full innings in one of his 14 appearances, but he managed to fan at least 10 hitters twice.

He fanned at least six hitters eight different times.

He walked one or fewer hitters seven times.

Wicked, wicked curveball that is the stuff of children’s nightmares. Abreu also throws a plus fastball, which hovers around 94 mph most of the time. Reports also indicate he throws a slider, and a changeup. (Note: I did only saw the fastball and curveball during the time I saw Abreu pitch.) The control’s likely going to keep him out of the rotation long term, but he could be lethal as a fastball/curveball relief arm. The curveball may be the best in the minor leagues. Period. It’s absurdly wicked; It’s incredible. It may very well get him to the big leagues alone.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.