The faces of immigration

Doubling our bet

Canada needs more immigrants. In some regions and industries, Canada is already short of educated, skilled workers. With birth rates low and lifespans ever longer, those problems will deepen in the future. Worse, our social safety system could become unsustainable. A possible solution is to expand immigration for "economic" migrants – those selected for their skills – to as much as double current levels. This would raise annual immigration to nearly 400,000 by 2016. The coming demographic crunch With baby boomers heading for retirement, eventually there will be only two workers for every senior citizen. This increases the burden on workers for seniors' pensions and other social programs, slows growth and makes labour shortages even more dire. Canada's working-aged population per senior citizen over time, and the same ratio by province Graphic Source: Statistics Canada The Steinbach solution Video The small community of Steinbach, Man., is a microcosm of Canada's dilemma: In the 1990s, it lacked the population to fill needed jobs, then a new provincial program helped it draw more immigrants. Today, Steinbach is transformed, having grown by 60 per cent, with newcomers from 40 countries. The town has pulled together to help integrate the new residents. The labour deficit Canada is facing a looming labour shortage. A million jobs could be going unfilled across the country by 2021 because of a lack of qualified candidates. Sectors facing critical shortages of skilled labour include mining, oil and health care. Alberta is already facing labour shortages and the province anticipates a deficit of 114,000 jobs by 2021. In Ontario, by 2031, the shortfall in skilled labour could be as high 1.8 million according to an analysis of Ministry of Finance data. Graphic Source: Human Resources and Skills Development Canada; Miner Management Consultants; Alberta Human Resources Population: Big choices How big a country should Canada be? The current trajectory (medium growth), shows a total population of 52.3 million by 2061, with annual immigration at 406,700 (a rate of 0.75 per cent). Under the high growth scenario, the rate would be 0.9 per cent annually. Doubling economic immigrants would increase the rate to slightly more than 1 per cent. Population growth Graphic Source: Statistics Canada Immigration's central role Canada's population growth already depends almost entirely on immigration. Following current trends, projections show an annual increase of 386,400 people by 2061, made up of 346,800 net immigrants (406,700 new immigrants minus 59,900 emigrants) and 39,600 net new births. Only about 10 per cent of growth will be due to new births. Medium growth scenario Graphic Source: Statistics Canada

Where do you stand?

Canada has a rare level of national consensus on the value of immigration. The government says it does not want to disrupt that peace. But arguably that consensus is the very reason immigration numbers could increase. How do you see the present and future of immigration in Canada? Plot your position on the Globe's interactive chart, and see how it compares to other people's opinions. How is it affected by your personal experience? Vote: What is your attitude toward immigration? Poll Just how important is immigration to the future of Canada? Chart your perspective, and compare your opinion to others'. Join the conversation

Where the system is failing

It can take years to get in. Some professionals arrive only to be told their qualifications aren't recognized. Unemployment and underemployment are far too common. To address some of these problems, Citizenship and Immigration Minister Jason Kenney is placing more emphasis on language skills, credentials assessment and job offers for newcomers, as well as creating a nimbler application process. But will these changes make immigrants better off? Immigrant incomes are falling behind Since the 1970s, new immigrants overall have fared worse economically than their predecessors. And they are taking longer to catch up to the average Canadian. The graph below shows how far short of Canadian earnings immigrants fall. Male immigrants' earnings over time after arrival, relative to comparable Canadian-born, full-time male employees Graphic Source: Institute for Research on Public Policy

Meet the innovators

While experts, think tanks and bureaucrats put forth their ideas on how to make immigration work better, individual innovators are moving ahead and making the changes they see are needed. From community members with fresh approaches to mentoring and integrating newcomers, to employers who recognize that a diverse work force broadens a company's vision and knowledge, these are the people building tomorrow's Canada today.











Nominate an innovator » Video

A changing picture

Several trends in immigration in the past couple decades stand out. In every province, the proportion of economic immigrants (skilled and educated workers, entrepreneurs and investors and those with Canadian experience) has increased significantly, while family reunification has declined; more are moving West rather than flocking to Ontario and Quebec; and the primary source countries are no longer the U.K. and the U.S., but the Philippines, India and China. Then and now Comparing immigration source countries from 1970 and 2010 and how key measures of immigrant demographics and settlement patterns changed between the 1986 and 2006 census periods. Graphic Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada

How does Canada recruit immigrants?

For years Canada has easily met its immigration targets. But getting the right immigrant mix to ease Canada's demographic dilemma will require a more aggressive effort to court potential migrants – while in competition with other countries with shortages of skilled labour. Steps can be taken in both the private and public sectors to establish more of a presence abroad, offer incentives, promote Canada's image and set up information and support networks. In search of new workers Gallery

Where does your community fit in?

Canadians' perspectives on immigration often depend on where they live. In the biggest cities – Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver – immigration is a long-standing and pervasive element of urban life. In other places, the proportions are often smaller and the arrivals much more recent. Use this interactive tool to find out where the most dramatic changes are happening, and how your own area compares. Enter your postal code to look at immigration in your community

Share your story