Even when Manchester United were flying during Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s stint as caretaker manager last season, there was something unconvincing about their ‘expected goal’ numbers.



Make no mistake: upon his appointment Solskjaer genuinely refreshed United, and had them playing with more attacking freedom than during the final days of Jose Mourinho, but the numbers suggested they would struggle to maintain that form. United’s first 12 Premier League matches under Solskjaer saw them go unbeaten, with a total goal difference of plus-20: scored 29, conceded just nine. Solskjaer’s permanent appointment was an inevitability.



The expected goals (xG) numbers were less convincing. According to Understat, they should have scored 25.6 goals, and conceded 13.7, for a total xGD of +11.9. This was still a positive situation — but it suggested United’s goal return was almost twice as good as you would expect, based upon the chances...