The Bears exceeded all expectations last year with a 12-4 record, going way over their season win total of seven, so it’s not surprising bookmakers have their total regressing to nine. However, all of the pieces are in place for the Bears to again hit double-digit wins.

QB Mitchell Trubisky took a big step forward in his second season under new coach Matt Nagy and, after adding LB Khalil Mack right before the season, the Bears ended No. 3 in total defense. They tied for No. 3 in sacks with 50, led by Mack’s 12.5. The defense should again be solid and Trubisky has room to improve.

My Money-Line Estimate (MLE, using the converted money lines from CG Technology’s Week 2-16 advance lines) has the Bears winning 9.2 games, but they’re projected to be favored in 11 games with one push, so their worst-case scenario should be nine wins with a much better chance to go 10-6 or better as opposed to 8-8 or worse.

The Bears and Packers launch the NFC North race as the league kicks off its 100-year celebration with a renewal of the longest-running rivalry in the Thursday night opener. Bookmakers made the Bears 3 ¹/₂ or 4-point home favorites when the schedule first came out. It’s mostly settled at 3 ¹/₂.

The Play: Bears Over nine regular-season wins.