After news broke last night that Jon Stewart would retire from The Daily Show this year, two things happened in rapid succession: First Twitter burst into flames, and then speculation began in earnest over who Comedy Central would anoint to take over at Stewart’s desk. What began as a zany, satirical spin on nightly news programs under Craig Kilborn morphed into an essential counterbalance to the mainstream political media. Whoever takes over TDS likely won’t get the same freedom to experiment that Stewart did; instead they’ll just need to stay on-brand at the helm of late night’s newest institution, displaying fearlessness and wit in the face of an exhausting political and social quagmire.

But who will that be?

To answer that, consider who Stewart was when he got the job. He was 36 when took over The Daily Show, and though his non-standup career up to that point included supporting roles in Adam Sandler movies and an MTV hosting gig, his standup was already politically charged and he’d performed at the White House Correspondents Dinner (albeit after Rosie O’Donnell and Denis Miller turned down the opportunity). Using those age and material parameters, here are our leading candidates to take over Stewart’s hosting gig—in order of likelihood.

John Oliver, Oct. 14, 2014. Richard Shotwell/Invision/AP

The No-Brainer: John Oliver

If you’re searching for the quickest replacement for Stewart’s ethos, look no further than Oliver, the newest successful former correspondent—and, at age 37, right at about the same point in his career. His stint as guest host while Stewart directed Rosewater was a rousing success, and his jump to HBO with Last Week Tonight has proven that he has the chops to produce analytical and uproarious material at least on par with Stewart’s most incisive comedy (if not better because of the in-depth segments).

The barriers to a reunion are plentiful: there was often speculation that Stewart would leave the grind of a daily program for a weekly show at a premium cable network that affords the creative freedom Oliver already enjoys. But the HBO deal Oliver signed is for two years, which is timed almost too perfectly to the window available now for Comedy Central to drive a dump truck full of money up to his house to convince him to return.

Aisha Tyler, Nov. 11, 2014. Casey Curry/Invision/AP

The Veteran: Aisha Tyler

The elephant in the room during every late-night transition is that female and nonwhite comedians never get a real shot. But Larry Wilmore just got The Nightly Show, so perhaps Comedy Central is the place for progress instead of handing The Daily Show from one white guy named Jon to another white guy named John with a British accent.

But Aisha Tyler doesn’t even need that kind of slant to make her a competitive candidate. She’s been constantly in conversation for late-night hosting gigs, and she deserves to be in this one too. She’s hosted Talk Soup for years, guest-hosted At The Movies With Ebert & Roeper, and holds down Whose Line Is It Anyway?, and though her current gig on The Talk has been successful—so much so that a special "after dark" edition has aired during the transition to James Corden hosting The Late Late Show on CBS—she’s extraordinarily overqualified to be marooned on a daytime panel show.

Wyatt Cenac, Sept. 21, 2008. Shea Walsh/AP

The Returning Champ: Wyatt Cenac

He may have left the show just a hair too early, since it meant missing out on the competition for the guest hosting stint that went to John Oliver, but Cenac has all the credentials necessary to host The Daily Show. He was talented in the field, an incredible foil to Stewart during studio bits across the desk (and he the hilarious voice of the former RNC Chairman Michael Steele puppet), and a ruthlessly satirical standup. Like many correspondents before him, he outgrew his supporting role on the show; unlike many of the others, who were better suited to film acting (Steve Carrell, Ed Helms), variety performance (Colbert), or a show of their own (Rob Corddry), Cenac has earned a shot at the big chair.

Cecily Strong, Jan. 5, 2015. Evan Agostini/Invision/AP

The Competition: Cecily Strong

The painfully awkward struggles of Colin Jost and former TDS contributor Michael Che on SNL's Weekend Update desk have only solidified this point: Cecily Strong is anchor material. She’s hosting this year’s Correspondents Dinner, following in the footsteps of late-night veterans like Stewart, Stephen Colbert, Seth Meyers, Conan O’Brien, Jimmy Kimmel, and Craig Ferguson. If Lorne Michaels can’t see that she deserves a satirical news desk to herself, perhaps Comedy Central could take the talented sketch performer off NBC’s hands.

Samantha Bee and Jason Jones, February 4, 2015. Casey Rodgers/Invision for Butterfinger/AP

The Protégés: Samantha Bee & Jason Jones

Once Jon Stewart got rolling on The Daily Show, he seldom took a night off. In the past 10 years, he’s taken exactly three shows off. Stephen Colbert hosted in 2004 when Stewart’s daughter was born, Rob Corddry hosted an episode in 2006, and the husband/wife team of Jason Jones and Samantha Bee took over on short notice when Stewart came down with the flu last year. Bee is the longest-running correspondent both currently and all-time, surpassing Stephen Colbert back in 2012, with Jones as the next most senior correspondent. We kinda love the idea of married co-hosts, but this one's a long shot: they’re both much older than Stewart was when he took over, and the fact that they were passed over when Oliver got a three-month guest hosting stint speaks volumes.

Jessica Williams, Jan. 26, 2015. Victoria Will/Invision/AP

The Prodigy: Jessica Williams

We know, we know: at 25, Williams is way too young to nab the hosting gig. But she was also frighteningly poised when she made her first appearance on the show three years ago at only 22. She may be young, but she’s gotten where she is on talent and damn funny work. Of the current correspondent crop, she’s the most comically agile and has the best chance to grow into a skilled host with her already seemingly boundless charisma. The Daily Show has slowly turned into a comedy news show about television networks its young audience no longer watches, at the cost of leaving out the online journalism environment that’s ripe for parody and criticism. Williams is the best shot Comedy Central has at finding someone who will figure out how to skewer a newer generation as well.

Hari Kondabolu, July 11, 2014. Al Pereira/Getty

The Dark Horse: Hari Kondabolu

Of all the young but established standups working today, Kondabolu has the most distinctive voice on political and social issues. Plus he’s got late night writing experience: He was on W. Kamau Bell’s phenomenal writing staff during the short-lived FX show Totally Biased. If Comedy Central doesn’t want to take a chance on a firebrand Indian-American with the ambition to take on any and every cultural injustice in his path with fierce sarcasm and incisive wit, then the new host should offer him a correspondent gig immediately.