In Paris, Premier Li Keqiang unveiled bolder initiatives than had seemed likely under which China would lower the amount of carbon emitted relative to the size of its economy by 60 to 65 per cent by 2030.

Beijing had already pledged to achieve peak emissions by 2030, and may reach that earlier.

Other countries, including Canada, Japan and members of the European Union, have shown their hands ahead of Paris, leaving Australia as one of the last significant economies to declare its intentions.

This is cranking up pressure on an Abbott government that risks being exposed as an outlier in the climate change debate, or, at best, a laggard.

AFR Weekend understands a "whole-of-government review" of options has worked its way through the system and the cabinet will sign off on a final position by around the middle of this month.

A well-placed source told the AFR, Canberra was "edging towards" a similar position to that of the United States and Canada, under which Australia would declare a "relatively ambitious" target. The US has declared a 2025 emissions reduction target of 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels.

Such an outcome would enable Abbott respectably to show his face in Paris along with other global leaders, including Obama and China's President Xi Jinping, to sign a new protocol that would lay out global emissions targets beyond 2020.

Progressive ministers in the Abbott cabinet, including Foreign Minister Julie Bishop and Environment Minister Greg Hunt, are said to be arguing the case that Australia should bring itself into line with a strengthening international consensus on climate.


Abbott is leaning reluctantly towards their point of view, but has needed to be convinced. Sceptics in the cabinet include National Party ministers close to the resources sector.

More than 190 parties will be represented at the United Nations-sponsored Paris conference.

France is devoting significant energy and resources to ensuring the event's success in an effort to expunge memories of the fractured Copenhagen conference of 2009, which ended in disarray.

French pride is involved.

Climate change specialists, interviewed by the AFR on recent visits to Paris and Berlin, said commitments in hand, including those of the largest emitters, the US, China and the EU, were insufficient to avoid 2-degree-Celsius warming over pre-industrial levels this century.

This is regarded as the benchmark to prevent further melting of the polar ice cap and rising sea levels.

Much more, these climatologists said, would need to be done to ensure global warming was kept below the target of 2 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels.

French and German officials spared little in their criticism of what they perceived to be the Abbott government's miserly approach towards preparations for the Paris conference.


They contrasted this stance with that of the previous Australian government, which demonstrated greater engagement on climate.

In Bonn, where officials have been locked in negotiations on a text for Paris, an Australian delegation, led by senior diplomat Peter Woolcott, has proven to be a reticent – even obstructive – participant, according to the Germans.

A senior German official told the AFR Woolcott had appeared to be on a very tight leash in what he could – and could not – contribute to discussions.

Australia proved something of a "black sheep" in these negotiations, the German official confided. He named New Zealand and South Korea as other black sheep on climate.

In Paris, senior advisers to French President Francois Hollande were hardly less restrained, telling the AFR they had been "saddened" by what is perceived in Europe as Australia's backsliding on climate.

What is clearly at hand in Canberra is a moment of reckoning on Australia's international obligations as a responsible middle power. It would be surprising if it chose not to live up to those obligations in such a way that it parted company with its natural constituency, including, particularly, the Americans and Canadians.

Tony Walker is the AFR's International editor. He visited France and Germany as a guest of the French and German governments.