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Let’s be frank. Alberta’s climate change policies are almost entirely about symbolism. Whatever we choose to do will have almost no measurable impact on global temperatures, although we seem intent on wrecking our own economy in the process.

That’s the stark message of a new Fraser Institute report, titled How Alberta’s Carbon Emission Cap Will Reduce Oil Sands Growth.

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The 17-page study, released Tuesday, estimates Alberta’s proposed 100 megatonne ceiling on oilsands carbon emissions — which places an effective cap on future output — could cost the provincial economy more than $250 billion of foregone oil production, or roughly 3.34 billion barrels in total, between 2025 and 2040.

Based on current oilsands production growth estimates, the report estimates that the 100-megatonne cap, a key part of the Alberta NDP government’s ambitious climate change plan, will be reached by 2025, just nine years off.

The payoff for Alberta’s economic sacrifice? A projected reduction in global greenhouse gases by 2040 of (wait for it) 0.035 per cent, the study says. That’s it. A fraction of one per cent.

The “good” news? If producers manage to sharply reduce the emissions intensity of bitumen production, the Fraser study concludes, the cumulative lost value of all that production could be as little as $153.4 billion.