The awkward squad are getting their verdict – and attack lines – in early on the Tory European campaign. David Davis lambasted the coordinated CCHQ attacks on UKIP last night, telling Guido that they have only driven more voters to UKIP:

“The only way to fight UKIP is to occupy their ground. Cameron has started to try and do that, but it’s too late… They only react when they are panicking and then no one believes it.”

Basher says he has come round to Lord Tebbit’s ‘forgotten Tories’ idea; Thatcherites who abandoned the party in 1992, and have not voted since, have been awoken. They’ve not come back to the Tories though. He predicts a 32 24 22 win for the ‘kippers, with the Tories in third and an unexpectedly high turnout for a Euro-vote. Consider this a preview of next week if those numbers are correct.