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Message to Hillary

From:ntanden@gmail.com To: john.podesta@gmail.com Date: 2016-01-13 00:51 Subject: Message to Hillary

I was thinking I'd send this in the morning. Let me know your thoughts. Hillary I wanted to send you a note with some thoughts. I believe you are going to win the Democratic nomination, even if you lose Iowa and New Hampshire. But how you react to those losses, if they occur, will very much shape the outcome of the race. I was in New Hampshire and people believe that you are going to win the nomination. In tonight’s NYT CBS poll, most people still think you are going to win. So voting for Sanders is a ‘free’ vote to register their anger at the system. That will change if he wins Iowa. Faced with him as a real potential to be the nominee, I believe people will be scared; particularly with Trump or Cruz as the alternative. But it may take a victory for him for that to happen. They will then look at you anew. You will optimize that moment if you respond to that loss well. But it will be up to you. Overall the party is angry at the status quo, rising inequality, a system that is rigged for the rich and are queasy about the establishment. But it will be live to them at some point that they could help make Trump president with a Republican House and Senate. BUT how you respond to a loss will help determine whether you win this race. In every race you’ve run, people need to see in - one form or another - that you actually bleed. It is when you get knocked down or take the punch that they get their measure of you and come to your side. In 2000, we were running basically even until Lazio harassed you to sign his pledge; and Democrats moved decisively in your favor. It also happened in 2008 in New Hampshire: that moment was about you telling people that you are running for them in deeply personal terms – you take these licks because you want to make their lives better. It was also when we started winning in 08: in Ohio in your victory speech where you said you get knocked down but you get back up. That is when we won the rest of the race. And even in this race, when Democrats saw you with poise, calm and grace bear the 11 hour Benghazi committee kangaroo court. When the struggle comes, as it may in Iowa, or NH, or both, it is how you handle that struggle that makes Democrats move to you or not. I believed then and I believe now that contrasting with Obama in Iowa fed their narrative of you as calculating. And today, I believe hard contrasts with Sanders is driving a notion that you are the establishment candidate; because that is what establishment candidates do. As we know, Nh polls don't matter. They will be shaped by what happens in Iowa. If you lose in Iowa, then that gives you an opportunity to say you've been knocked down, but you are getting up to fight for this nomination. Because you hear them (as you said in New Hampshire 8 years ago). You hear them and you will fight for them. We have done lots of work on trust in government. The level of anger amongst everyone is high. The key takeaway is people are so disappointed in Washington that it is radicalizing them. How you act is more important than what you promise because there have been so many promises broken. And they can see how you act. You are on a mission here. You can take your licks as part of that. Because the American people are worth those licks. So many times, that message has worked for you. I hope this is helpful.