[text_output]You all know the old adage, where there is smoke there is fire. Well friends, there is thick smoke bellowing from MSG right now, and it’s impossible to ignore the fact that the New York Rangers should be, and very well might be, sellers at this year’s trade deadline. A number of the Rangers UFAs and prominent veterans have been rumored to be either openly available—Nash, Grabner, Holden, Desharnais—or at the very least attainable for the right price: McDonagh and Zuccarello. Further, Larry Brooks of the New York Post recently went one step further and adamantly stated that, “the Blueshirts, we’re told on good authority, view the Feb. 26 trade deadline as a unique opportunity to refresh the roster and replenish the organization, regardless of where the club stands in relation to a playoff spot.”

With all of these rumors, the Rangers social media circles have been buzzing with excitement over what the Rangers could possibly get in return for these players. To say the opinions have been all over the place is to say that Mount Everest is a bit of a hill. We don’t want to put anyone on blast here, but some of the hot takes bandied about the various social media platforms and comment sections of hockey articles are downright hilarious. On the potential return for Ryan McDonagh alone, we’ve seen everything from claiming the Rangers should get a Mitch Marner, Timothy Liljegren and a first rounder for McDonagh on the high end to the Rangers couldn’t even get Miro Heiskanen straight up for him on the low end.

Here, Shawn Taggart and Drew Way will attempt to cut through all the nonsense and provide what they believe are realistic return possibilities for each of the main impending UFAs, and then both will tackle two non-UFAs and have some fun with what could possibly be a return for each of them. In preparing for this article, both Drew and Shawn contacted multiple hockey writers at the national level and specific to some of the teams rumored to be interested in the Rangers players (stick tap to The Athletic for having such helpful writers), in order to help provide some opinions that fall outside of the echo chamber that tends to be the New York Rangers fanbase at times.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2007″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][custom_headline type=”center” level=”h4″ looks_like=”h4″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Impending Unrestricted Free Agents[/custom_headline][text_output]For each player here, we provide their contract situation, a list of potential suitors and comparable recent trades in order to help us set the table for a trade return expectation. After laying the groundwork, Drew and Shawn separately provide their opinions on what the Rangers could realistically expect as returns for the player.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Rick Nash[/custom_headline][image type=”rounded” float=”none” link=”true” target=”blank” info=”tooltip” info_place=”bottom” info_trigger=”hover” src=”2009″ alt=”” href=”https://cdn.newsday.com/polopoly_fs/1.12872791.1483670732!/httpImage/image.jpeg_gen/derivatives/landscape_768/image.jpeg” title=”” info_content=”Photo Credit: Kathleen Malone-Van Dyke” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Contract Details – The question about what is a realistic trade return for Rick Nash is a complicated one, as he has a cap hit of $7.8 million and a modified no trade clause which allows his to submit a 12-team trade list of teams he’d be willing to be traded, which in theory would allow Nash to simply leave off all playoff contenders if his true desire is to not be traded. However, the Rangers also have plenty of cap space, so they could easily retain half of his salary (the maximum allowed by the league) to help increase his value and facilitate a deal to a cap-strapped contender.

Potential Suitors – Tampa Bay could be looking to replace Palat, who is potentially out until the end of March with a lower body injury. Boston and Dallas have tremendous top lines but could be in the market for some additional offensive punch from the wing from the middle lines. Dallas is particularly interesting due to the connection between Nash and their head coach Ken Hitchcock back from their Columbus days together. We actually spoke with a few very smart Bruins fans, all of whom know the ins and out of the team more than either of us, and they all agreed that Nash would be a great fit, for the right price of course. Additional teams we could see as being potential fits include San Jose, Vegas (if they decided to buy), St. Louis and Nashville (if they moved Nash or one of their current LW to the right).

Recent Comparable Trades – Just before the trade deadline of the 2016-2017 season, Arizona shipped off center Martin Hanzal along with an AHLer and a fourth-round pick for an inconsequential prospect, a 2017 first-round pick, 2018 second rounder and a conditional 2019 conditional pick that had the ability to convert to as high as a second. A couple days prior, Dallas shipped off Patrick Eaves (whom was in the midst of a career year at the age of 32) for a conditional second round pick that would convert to a first if the Ducks made it to the Western Conference Final and Eaves played in at least half of their games along the way.

Potential Return (Drew) – Personally, I think the Rangers should aim for the Hanzal return, but realistically will find themselves settling in between that and the Eaves return. I think Nash is a better player than Hanzal, but Hanzal was viewed as a potential top line C at the deadline (which I vehemently disagreed with), and the NHL is still obsessed with size, so that artificially drove up his value. If the Rangers landed a first-round pick and a mid-tier prospect, I’d be very happy. Personally, I prefer NHL-ready prospects to bottom half of the first-round draft picks, so I’d be thrilled if the Rangers could land a meaningful prospect for Nash. St. Louis has a number of strong prospects I’d love; I think Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou are probably off limits, but perhaps they could squeeze out Klim Kostin? From Boston, I wouldn’t say no to a package that included Finnish defenseman Urho Vaakanainen and a second or third-round pick. From Dallas I’d be happy with a similar package of Julius Honka, whom Ken Hitchcock clearly doesn’t trust, and maybe a conditional mid-round pick. The dream would be to pry Erik Brannstrom from Vegas somehow, but that would be foolish of Vegas in my opinion. Then again, George McPhee did once trade Filip Forsberg for Martin Erat, so I don’t think it is out of the question.

Potential Return (Shawn) – While looking at what Drew’s potential return for Nash, it’s hard to disagree with that return, as Rick Nash recently can get you any player that the Rangers would want to pry, most importantly could cop that first-round pick that the Rangers would most certainly like to get. Realistically, the Rangers are best at trying to get a conditional first round pick for Nash. Meaning, it could be at best a first-round pick but has to reach certain criteria. Rick Nash is at best a streaky scorer, he always has been hot and cold, a lot of teams who are in looks for scoring help could end up disappointed knowing that they’re not getting a guy that consistently scores. If teams put that past them and realize his three-zone play, they’re in for a treat. Teams like Nashville, teams like Boston who wouldn’t be mad at having a player of his potential would be perfect suitors for a player of his caliber.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Michael Grabner[/custom_headline][image type=”rounded” float=”none” link=”true” target=”blank” info=”tooltip” info_place=”bottom” info_trigger=”hover” src=”2016″ alt=”” href=”https://cdn.newsday.com/polopoly_fs/1.16276893.1516496748!/httpImage/image.jpeg_gen/derivatives/landscape_768/image.jpeg” title=”” info_content=”Photo Credit: Kathleen Malone-Van Dyke” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Contract Details – Michael Grabner carries a very low cap hit of $1.65, and he does not possess any trade protection features in his contract.

Potential Suitors – This list of potential suitors for Michael Grabner is probably also nearly identical to that of Rick Nash, as both are defensively responsible wingers that could be coveted by a number of playoff contenders. We will add that, while extremely unlikely, the Devils’ system is a perfect for Michael Grabner, and we’ve spoken to numerous Devils fans that have been very open about the fact that they’d happily break down that trade barrier to add Grabner for a potential playoff push.

Recent Comparable Trades – The Patrick Eaves deal discussed in the Nash section is probably by far the best comparison. For additional context, you can look to the Hanzal deal on the extreme high end, and the Brian Boyle deal on the low end, which netted the Lightning an Byron Froese, who is sort of your prototypical AAAA-type forward and a conditional 2017 second-round pick.

Potential Return (Drew) – I understand the skepticism around netting a first-round pick for Michael Grabner, but fact of the matter is he is an elite skater, defensively responsible winger that can help your penalty kill immensely and cost next to nothing against the cap. Oh yea, he has also scored 34 goals during 5v5 play since the start of the 2016-2017 season, which ranks 8th in the entire NHL over that time span, just three behind Patrick Kane and three ahead of Brad Marchand. Personally, I’d set my sites on the types of returns I outlined in the Nash part, and I’d be hard pressed to accept anything less than what Dallas received for Patrick Eaves last year. I honestly think I would rather just hold onto Grabner and have him work with the kids that we hopefully call up later this year than deal him for anything less than the Eaves return. Grabner potentially teaching Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil to jump out of a pool > a second-round pick.

Potential Return (Shawn) – Grabner to me is an interesting guy to look at in terms of value. Especially seeing that it’s all but certain that he is nothing more than a system player. A player that excels in a system put in to place like the one we’re seeing him now in, and opposed to what he was in before the Maple Leafs overpaid him, while he was with the Islanders. He hasn’t done anything over the top to truly state that he can get away from being casted as a system only player. The fear here is that he could lose his scoring touch, and not be a practical resource in 5v5 play because of the system he’s going to be in.

He would be a beast as someone who can really push the play defensively, and most importantly during the penalty kill. So what teams need help on the penalty kill, and a good solid speedy third or fourth liner? Teams like Pittsburgh, teams like Tampa who are struggling there could get a solid depth winger. What could he get in return? While it’s nice to see a player of his caliber could get a conditional first-round pick, realistically I’m thinking he’s going to get a second-round pick in return. He’s a very intriguing player but has to be placed in the right system to be consistent.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Nick Holden[/custom_headline][image type=”rounded” float=”none” link=”true” target=”blank” info=”tooltip” info_place=”bottom” info_trigger=”hover” src=”2019″ alt=”” href=”https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/nick_holden1.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=1200″ title=”” info_content=”Photo Credit: Getty Images” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Contract Details – Nick Holden has an identical $1.65 AAV as Michael Grabner, and similarly does not carry any trade protection on his contract.

Potential Suitors – Who wouldn’t want a top line defenseman like Nick Holden!? Kidding aside, if deployed properly, Holden is a solid, third-pairing left-handed defenseman with decent offensive ability. The Winnipeg Jets just lost Jacob Trouba to a reported ankle injury and he likely won’t return for 6-8 weeks, so they could be in the market for a stop-gap. While a trade with the Penguins is unlikely, they are a team that always seems to be able to scrape the bottom of the barrel and maximize the talents of flawed defenseman. The Dallas Stars have a fantastic top defensive pairing in Klingberg and Lindell and they have additional talent on the right side (e.g. Julius Honka), but Ken Hitchcock loves him some “reliable” veteran defenseman.

Recent Comparable Trades – Dallas traded Jordie Benn to Montreal at the deadline last year for a fourth-round pick and defenseman Greg Pateryn, who has oscillated between the NHL and AHL for the past few seasons. It should be noted that Benn was not an impending UFA, and still had one additional year left on his contract. Carolina traded impending UFA Ron Hainsey to Pittsburgh for AHL forward Danny Kristo and a 2017 second-round pick. Also around the deadline, Arizona traded impending UFA Michael Stone to Calgary for a 2017 third-round pick and a conditional fifth rounder in 2018.

Potential Return (Drew) – To be completely candid, I would trade away Nick Holden for a bag a hockey pucks just to clear the roster spot and allow the Rangers to call up Ryan Graves, John Gilmour or Neal Pionk. However, the Rangers can get more than a bag of hockey picks when looking at their recent comparables. Personally, I’d be happy with the Michael Stone return of a third-round pick and a conditional fifth, and I’d be perfectly fine with at the very least recouping the fourth-round pick the Rangers traded away to acquire him during the 2016 draft. A friend of mine tried telling me the Rangers should get a second rounder for Holden; if that happens I will drive Holden to the facilities of the acquiring team myself right now.

Potential Return (Shawn) – I agree with Drew, give me a bag of pucks, or some free ice time and I’ll drive Nick Holden to the airport myself. With teams in the west looking for defensive depth to help them shore up their defense, I’m sure a guy like Pete DeBoer in San Jose, or as mentioned above Ken Hitchcock, he would be someone “reliable”. A fourth-round pick is something I would be okay with, because he can get us something of value, even though it’d be a fourth-round pick, you can still get lucky, and get some gems from this round in the draft. Something that would be very Ranger like, as they do have some luck in the later rounds in the draft.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]David Desharnais[/custom_headline][image type=”rounded” float=”none” src=”2020″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Contract Details – The Rangers signed Desharnais to a one-year deal this past offseason with a $1 million cap hit and no trade protections.

Potential Suitors – A number of teams could be in the market for a depth center with decent playmaking ability such as Desharnais, including Columbus, Pittsburgh and New Jersey. Unfortunately, all of these teams are in the Metropolitan division, so not likely the most ideal trade partner. Looking outside of the Metro, most playoff contenders are pretty set at the center position, but we could see some of the teams we identified as needing help with playmaking on the wing (Nashville, St. Louis, Dallas, Boston and Tampa Bay) to make a move for Desharnais and have the flexibility to switch guys between center and the wing as needed. Winnipeg could also potentially be an interested party, particularly due to the recent injury of their top line center Mark Scheifele.

Recent Comparable Trades – David Desharnais was actually traded last year from Montreal to Edmonton for Brandon Davidson, an at-the-time 25-year-old left-handed defenseman whom has struggled to make his mark on the NHL. However, Desharnais was coming off of a few injury riddled seasons and was in the midst of the worst year of his career, so his value was much lower than it is now, so this isn’t the best comparable. More accurate comparables include Victor Stalberg going from Carolina to Ottawa in exchange for a third-round pick; at the time Stalberg had 9 goals and 3 assists, compared to Desharnais’ current 5 goals and 17 assists. Vancouver somehow pried Jonathan Dahlen, a clear top-100 prospect at the time (likely closer to top-50) from Ottawa for Alexandre Burrows. We would also point to the previously mentioned Boyle trade (Byron Froese and a conditional second) as a decent comparable here.

Potential Return (Drew) – This one is tough for me, because I believe the teams that could use Desharnais the most (Devils and Penguins) are also the least likely to engage in serious trade talks with the Rangers at the trade deadline. While Desharnais has put up some abysmal advanced stats on the season (currently has the lowest 5v5 relative Corsi for % among Rangers forwards with at least 200 minutes of ice time), he still leads the team in 5v5 assists with 14, so he has some value. Looking at the recent comparables, I’d be very happy with the Victor Stalberg return of a third-round pick, and I’d settle for a fourth.

Potential Return (Shawn) – So looking at teams that would need a player like he comes from our division. We know that teams within the division, really wouldn’t be trying to do business with us. Yet, teams like Columbus, New Jersey and Pittsburgh may want to consider looking at picking them up to add that much needed depth forward. Another team that could look at him out in the west? Winnipeg. The Jets are lacking some veteran leadership and also lacking some middle help that they could use on their bottom six. He’s not the flashiest guy for the powerplay, or not the strongest on the penalty kill, so just having him there for added depth would be fine. Realistically? I’m looking for a third, but if we got a fourth-round pick for him, I really wouldn’t complain.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”center” level=”h4″ looks_like=”h4″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Additional Potential Trade Options[/custom_headline][text_output]In addition to the impending unrestricted free agents, the Rangers could also look to deal some of their younger soon-to-be restricted free agents or some of their veterans under team control beyond this year. Going down this route would for sure be a bit harder to stomach, as the Rangers would likely be giving up a much more valuable piece than any of the above mentioned UFAs, but it also could potentially land the Rangers a much more coveted prize in return. In this portion, Shawn and Drew tackle four prominent players they feel the Rangers should listen to offers on if the goal is to truly revamp this roster for next year. Please note that unless otherwise stated, neither Shawn or Drew are saying the Rangers must actively shop these players and trade them to the highest bidder at the deadline. Instead, they think these players are guys that the Rangers should listen to offers on, and if they get the exact return they are looking for, consider pulling the trigger.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Ryan McDonagh[/custom_headline][image type=”rounded” float=”none” link=”true” target=”blank” info=”tooltip” info_place=”bottom” info_trigger=”hover” src=”2025″ alt=”” href=”https://therangerzone.files.wordpress.com/2016/04/ryan-mcdonagh-profile-good-pic-12-6.jpg” title=”” info_content=”Photo Credit: MSG Photos” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Contract Details – McDonagh has a year and a half left, on is four-year $4.7 million-dollar contract, expected to be an UFA after the 2018-2019 season. He has a modified no-trade clause, meaning he needs to give a list of 10 teams he does not want to be traded to.

Potential Suitors – While Shawn was writing his initial piece on possibly trading McDonagh, he was looking at potential suitors and the potential return we could get for him. He had an idea of Dallas, Toronto and Edmonton as potential destinations for McDonagh.

Speaking with people who closely follow and write for these teams, they thought that while a good idea, this wasn’t something that the teams were thinking about. When speaking with Carolyn Wilke who follows the Dallas Stars “I don’t think the Stars are going to be looking for a top-pair defenseman, considering Klingberg and Lindell is literally one of the best pairs in the league.” Okay fair.

Shawn then looked at the situation in Toronto, and with them being top-heavy in LHD, and looking for RHD help, this wouldn’t help with the immediate need that they need on defense, though honestly, wouldn’t be surprised if they at least looked at McDonagh, because they’re going to be dealing with some tight cap-room soon with the impending deals for Marner, Nylander and Matthews coming very soon.

Lastly, Shawn spoke with Jonathan Willis, who covers the Edmonton Oilers for the Athletic. Willis said “I don’t think such a trade would make much sense for Edmonton. The Oilers are loaded to the gills with left-shot defenseman. If they were to make a deal, they’d need to send one of them out, and its decent bet that they may do that anyway to address one of their major needs.”

Willis also expressed the Oilers difficult cap situation, and the fact that while having McDonagh for a year and a half would be nice, the Oilers are not contending currently for a playoff spot, it would waste that half year.

Recent Comparable Trades – The only deals we thought of when it came to trading its captain/star defenseman for a high-level return was the recent 1 for 1 was the deal that sent P.K. Subban to Nashville for Shea Weber. This deal shook the foundation of both teams defensively, and you saw the immediate impact Subban had for his new team. This situation, whoever we’d get in return for would make an immediate impact like Subban did. Some might point to the Adam Larsson deal that landed the Devils Taylor Hall, but nothing can be gained by looking at Peter Chiarelli if your hope is to gain any perspective into the actual value of players.

Potential Returns (Shawn) – I think while looking at McDonagh a 1 for 1 situation is probably something that we’re going to have to consider for a player of his caliber. While I said a deal with Toronto is unlikely, it’s something I would still seriously consider, because of the whole issue with which forwards to sign when the time comes within the next year. I’d look at a player like William Nylander, because he is that dynamic center, and if we’re looking to also replace a center, Nylander would be someone who would the first, and possibly only piece I would heavily consider.

If you’re looking for a defensive return, I’d look at Honka or Lindell from Dallas. Yes, they don’t need a top-pairing defenseman but hear me out. McDonagh wouldn’t be the center of attention, he would be allowed to play his game, and not be under the microscope. We’d see him be comfortable and get his game back, not saying that he wouldn’t be comfortable in Toronto but he’d be shined under a different light.

Potential Returns (Drew) – I would drive McDonagh to Toronto right now if they coughed up William Nylander for him straight up. Point of me saying this is, I would be completely and utterly stunned if it happened. If Toronto were to get into the fray, I think a package along the lines of Kasperi Kapanen, a first-round pick and another piece (maybe Jeremy Bracco or another pick) could suffice. A Colorado Avalanche fan reached out to me on Twitter asking about a potential deal sending McDonagh to the Avs, and he said IF there was a condition on the first-round pick where the Rangers only get it if McDonagh re-signed, he thinks a package of Cale Makar and the pick would be fair, and I agree. I’m not as high on Julius Honka as many others are, and I would put my foot down and demand Miro Heiskanen in a package if Dallas wants McDonagh. I mentioned this on Twitter recently and got an emphatic NO from Stars fans, to which I responded that’s fine, then you don’t get McDonagh.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Kevin Hayes[/custom_headline][image type=”rounded” float=”none” link=”true” target=”blank” info=”tooltip” info_place=”bottom” info_trigger=”hover” src=”2029″ alt=”” href=”https://content.sny.tv/assets/images/2/9/0/209448290/cuts/USATSI_9681385_ewoxxt6c_2dg95vve.jpg” title=”” info_content=”Photo Credit: John Hefti” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Contract Details – Kevin Hayes is on his final year of his 2-year bridge deal that he signed, making an AAV of $2.6 million-dollars. He’ll be an RFA at the end of this year, and is arbitration eligible meaning that if they don’t sign him, or he doesn’t accept a qualifying offer, he would be selling his worth in front of an arbiter. This could get tricky for the Rangers, if they don’t agree to the number the arbiter gives them.

Potential Suitors – So looking at potential suitors for Hayes was hard, because in the end I really don’t want to get rid of him for practically nothing. We thought about it, and thought that he would probably be good out in the Western Conference.

One we are looked at as a possible suitor for Hayes was reuniting him with Chicago, but with their cap situation, it would be next to impossible to sign him to a long-term deal. Another team we looked at and watched close this season is Colorado. He would do wonders on that team, helping them down the middle even more and continuing in that role that he seemingly has fallen in love with. We would be sad to see him go, but Hayes in Colorado wouldn’t be bad for him.

If we had to look at teams in the Eastern Conference. The only team we would want to see him possibly go to is Carolina. Carolina is still retooling, and still trying to find their identity. They likely wouldn’t mind having a center of Hayes’ ability on the team if it meant giving us a package centered around someone like, oh I don’t know, Aleksi Saarela.

Recent Comparable Trades – Looking back to last offseason where Derek Stepan was traded alongside Antti Raanta for Arizona’s first round pick (turned into Lias Andersson) and Anthony DeAngelo. The Rangers lost a strong defensive center in Stepan, who played very good shutting down other team’s top line, was a strong penalty killer and consistently put up 50+ points. Alain Vigneault, as much hatred we spew on this site, has done it right with Hayes, and losing him would command some type of typical, similar return.

Looking at his stats, you can see how he slowly becoming more defensive, rather than offensive. So far through the games he has played he has had 206 defensive-zone faceoffs. His importance in our own end makes him an important piece and quite honestly, not something that the Rangers can easily afford to lose with all of their current defensive issues.

Potential Returns (Shawn) – Looking more at this, a return would have to be a low-high to mid-level prospect. Would start and end there. There would also have to be some type of return that would make the Rangers want to get rid of another defensive minded forward, who plays well in the role he was given.

The Rangers would need to replace him with a highly skilled forward, someone who can play both sides of the puck extremely well, and someone who we can rely on both sides of the puck.

The Rangers would be absolutely silly getting rid of a player of Hayes caliber. I know fans give him a bad rap but you know one thing, he’s a very strong player, and someone who has answered the call, quite well after being thrusted into a new role.

Potential Returns (Drew) – If the Rangers decided to move on from Hayes, my guess is it is because they are confident in Lias Andersson as the potential replacement for him in terms of the two-way game he brings to the table. I really don’t have any strong takes here on what we could realistically expect, but I don’t think we’d need to focus on offense as the return. If Carolina decided to jump into the mix, I’d love to attempt to pry either Brett Pesce or Jaccob Slavin from them, even if it means the Rangers would have to sweeten the pot a bit (which it almost certainly would). I think Connor Timmins and a first round pick would be a fair offer from Colorado if the goal for the Rangers is to just go the prospect route and pick route.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Mats Zuccarello[/custom_headline][image type=”rounded” float=”none” link=”true” target=”blank” info=”tooltip” info_place=”bottom” info_trigger=”hover” src=”2031″ alt=”” href=”https://cdn.newsday.com/polopoly_fs/1.13556710.1497744801!/httpImage/image.JPG_gen/derivatives/landscape_768/image.JPG” title=”” info_content=”Photo Credit: Jim McIsaac” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Contract Details – Zuccarello has one year remaining on his deal after this season before he becomes an unrestricted free agent. He comes with a very reasonable cap hit of $4.5 million and no trade protections.

Potential Suitors – All of the teams that could use Nash or Grabner could most certainly also use Zuccarello, and a few additional teams that might be fringe contenders or are having down years this year but are confident in their chances next year could also potentially join the mix, such as Edmonton, Los Angeles and Anaheim. Due to his reasonable contract, his extra year of team control, his lack of trade protections in his contract and the decent size list of teams that could use his services, a savvy GM could most certainly drum up a bit of a bidding war over Zuccarello’s services.

Recent Comparable Trades – It’s tough to find great trade comparables when looking beyond rentals, and teams like Edmonton who trade elite young forwards for young, cost-controlled but nowhere close to elite defenseman really screw with the market. However, the Martin Hanzal trade (which included an AHL player and fourth-round pick going with Hanzal) can be viewed as the absolute minimum the Rangers could even remotely consider: a low-level prospect, a 2017 first-round pick, a 2018 second, and a conditional 2019 pick. If Jeff Gorton doesn’t get an opening offer that consists of at least a first-round pick and a decent prospect or additional pick, he should hang up immediately.

Potential Returns (Shawn) – Well thinking about what I’d want in return for Zuccarello was honestly hard for me. I don’t want to trade him at all. Trading him would be trading the life line of our team that isn’t named Henrik Lundqvist. To me, this guy is a Ranger through and through.

What would I irrationally want? I want a roster player, and a first round pick for him, maybe two seconds, a first and a high-level prospect. Just because you’re taking the glue guy away from our team, someone who breathes the Rangers through and through. I expect someone who wants to be that way as well.

So, now realistically, what could we get for Zuccarello? Could we see a Hanzal type return for him? Depending on how desperate the team trading with us, sure we could? Realistically, no. I think you’re going to get picks, and you’re going to get a prospect for him. Probably two-seconds, maybe a first, and a mid-level prospect for him. He’s a second liner at best on any other team, presumably more a third-liner on most teams, we have to understand that what we see as a player, isn’t necessarily what other teams see.

Potential Returns (Drew) – Mats Zuccarello is my favorite player on the entire team, so trading him in particular would be an uppercut right to the feels for me, but it would certainly behoove the Rangers to at least be open to considering offers for him. However, he is now 30 years old (turn 31 before the start of next season), is a small guy that plays a relatively physical style of hockey, and his contract expires after next season.

While his points totals are still on track with his previous few years, he is currently sporting the worst 5v5 relative Corsi for % of his career at -0.83 according to Corsica. Zuccarello is most certainly still a very good player, and brings far more to the team than just his numbers indicate, but his best days are most likely behind him. I also think it is worth noting that Zuccarello clearly has the respect and admiration of his teammates and the organization, and while I am an analytics guy, I don’t think you can just completely discount the effect that trading a guy like that could have. All this said, it would still behoove the Rangers to at least listen to offers from teams in need of his services; you never know if a team will really blow you away with an offer that you just can’t refuse.

To make a long story short (well, this is already kind of long, so let’s say to make a long story slightly less long), I would want a return of a first round pick and a strong prospect to part ways with Mats Zuccarello. Something along the lines of a Connor Timmins and a first-round pick from Colorado might do the trick. I would also take an elite level prospect without the pick, but it has to be the right prospect. I’m talking the likes of Eeli Tolvanen (Nashville), Miro Heiskanen (Dallas), Cale Makar (Colorado) or Robert Thomas (St. Louis) to get the job done without a high pick involved. I know for a fact that Dallas fans would riot if they traded Miro Heiskanen based off of some reactions I got when I said he’d be needed to pry away McDonagh, but that’s too bad. Don’t want to include Heiskanen, that’s fine and I completely understand, but then you can go find another wing to acquire. Am I being unrealistic in a piece with the term “realistic” in the title? Perhaps. But as I said, to pry away Mats Zuccarello from me, you need to give me exactly what I want.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]J.T. Miller[/custom_headline][image type=”rounded” float=”none” link=”true” target=”blank” info=”tooltip” info_place=”bottom” info_trigger=”hover” src=”2032″ alt=”” href=”https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rdwSO49gFXpP6tVZ75FMBwuwTHI=/0x289:2464×1932/1200×800/filters:focal(0x289:2464×1932)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/48599559/505743350.0.jpg” title=”” info_content=”Photo Credit: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]Contract Details – J.T. Miller is in the final year of the bridge contract the Rangers gave him, after which he will be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. The most important contract question here is what would Miller’s next contract look like? Mike Murphy of Blueshirt Banter wrote a great article on what J.T. Miller’s next contract could look like back in December, and the best comparable contracts he identified based on players with similar production at similar ages to Miller include Tomas Tatar, Brayden Schenn and Mike Hoffman, all of whom obtained contracts of four years with a cap hit of over $5.1 million per. Given this, it would be surprising if the Rangers signed Miller to a deal that came in under $5 million per season.

Potential Suitors – Edmonton could be a good fit despite their looming cap issues, as that team is desperate for help on the wing. J.T. would slot in perfectly in their top-6 and because of his youth and RFA control, the fact that they aren’t currently a playoff contender doesn’t really matter. Many of the teams mentioned earlier for Zuccarello could also could be interested in Miller, including Dallas, Nashville and St. Louis. Montreal could also be a team that could use a player like J.T. Miller. The list of potential suitors could be even longer than this, but for the sake of brevity let’s leave it here for now.

Recent Comparable Trades – The Brayden Schenn trade from last year’s draft is a decent comparable. At the time of the trade, Schenn was 25 years old coming off a bit of a down year, and had three years left with a cap hit of $5.125 left on his deal. He fetched the Flyers Jori Lehtera, the 27th pick in last year’s draft and a future protected first round pick. The Derrick Brassard and Mika Zibanejad is another potential comparable here, with J.T. Miller being in the Mika Zibanejad role of the younger player with years of RFA control left. We should ignore the fact that Ottawa included a second-round pick in the deal, because it has been widely reported that the pick was included because the Ottawa owner Eugene Melnyk makes Ebenezer Scrudge look generous with his money, and the pick was compensation for the Rangers paying the bonus owed to Brassard. At the time, Derick Brassard was entering his age 29 season, proved to be an excellent second line center who brings it in the playoffs, and was coming off of back-to-back 58+ point seasons. Brassard also had three more years at a very reasonable cap hit of $5 million per, which increased his trade value as well.

Potential Returns (Shawn) – Okay, so here’s a guy that if we needed to trade I’d be okay with trading, because as I see it, this is something that makes the most sense. Here’s a guy who doesn’t truly know where he stands with the team. Is he a winger, is he a center? Does his coach even know?

The issue we have here with him too is that he’s not young, he’s going to be turning 25 soon. This type of thing means we already know what type of player we’re getting. We already know what to expect from him. He’s reached his potential. Could we see something more from him? Turning a leaf like Rick Nash and becoming better defensively? That’s up to him. What I will say is that, trading Miller now would be the best thing for the Rangers long term for cap reasons.

I’d want someone who in return is a little more of a defensive minded forward, someone who can be a strong two-way player. I’d want someone who’d be winning that important draw for us. I wouldn’t mind a second-round pick for him either. All I’m saying is this, while his value is still somewhat high, let’s get whatever we could for him. The issue is finding a team that would be willing to go in a situation knowing that he is going to command a salary north of $5 million. Is there a team out there willing to play someone who is inconsistent? The answer of course is yes, but finding that team willing to take a risk on a multitude of reasons would be tough.

Potential Returns (Drew) – In terms of what the Rangers could realistically expect if they decided to trade J.T. Miller, this I’m at a bit of a loss for. Teams rarely trade guys that have put up 50+ point seasons that still have multiple years of RFA control left. However, Miller will likely command a salary north of $5 million this offseason, and Brady Skjei and Kevin Hayes are also due for likely large pay raises. Now, with the Rangers four UFAs discussed above all coming off the books this year, the Rangers can re-sign all of these players; however, if the Rangers want to be players in free agency next year, they might want to consider cashing in on one of their RFAs, getting a nice haul while also freeing up some cap space. If I had to choose one of the looming RFAs to move, it would be J.T. Miller.

Don’t get me wrong, I think J.T. Miller is a very good young player, but I also think that his pure point totals lead to him being overrated a bit. Many fans point to the fact that J.T. is “only” just turning 25 in a couple of months as support for a claim that he is still getting better, but fact of the matter is that multiple studies have concluded that 25 is the average age that NHL forwards peak in terms of points production. So, according to multiple prominent studies, it is not likely that J.T. Miller gets appreciably better from here on out in terms of point production. Sure, there are outliers where players do improve, but it would be silly to base your strategy around hoping that a player is an outlier. I do expect Miller to continue to grow on the defensive side of the rink; he’s currently one of the worst defenders on the entire team according to the data, and the astute eye test doesn’t do him any favors either, so he has plenty of room for growth there.

All of this is a long way to set up the fact that I think J.T. Miller can get a very nice return due to his age, years of RFA control left and point production, but I think he should not be considered an untouchable player, and should absolutely be dealt IF the Rangers receive the right offer. Now, the question of course is, what is this “right offer?”

As far as the realistic returns the Rangers could get for J.T. Miller, I think they are diverse, and can include an older player that is better than Miller, or younger roster players or NHL-ready prospects, or a collection of picks and young prospects. The route the Rangers would go down in this hypothetical scenario likely hinges on exactly what sort of rebuild they would want to go down. Another route the Rangers could go (stick tap to Patrick Cunningham for this idea), is use J.T. to get a youngish roster player than is an inferior player, but also shed the contract of Brendan Smith; his suggestion was J.T. Miller and Brendan Smith’s contract for 26-year-old Florida Panthers defenseman Mark Pysyk.

Personally, if I were GM Jeff Gorton, I would look for either a middle-six roster player and a first round pick, or I would look for a pick and a high-end, close to NHL ready prospect. If Dallas wanted to get involved, I could part with J.T. for a package centered around 22-year-old offensive defenseman Julius Honka and a protected first round pick or conditional pick that could convert to a first. That might seem a bit steep to some, but Honka is clearly not trusted by Ken Hitchcock, so I think you could definitely squeeze a high pick out of them as well. A potential deal from St. Louis I’d be interested in would be Klim Kostin or Jordan Kyrou and a pick. Perhaps the Rangers could pry Kailer Yamamoto and a pick from Peter Chiarelli if he’s desperate to put a more proven wing in the top-6 in Edmonton next season. Richie McKenna reached out on Twitter and suggested 22-year-old Montreal RW prospect Nikita Scherbak and a first round pick. All of these would be strong options that could help the Rangers shed a bit of salary while also recouping good value with tons of upside.[/text_output]