Over my next few articles, I’m going to be covering the biggest positives (touchdowns) and negatives (turnovers) from the young QBs in 2014. This article will cover Derek Carr’s 12 interceptions in 2014, plus the ten times he put the ball on the ground. First, I’m going to cover some charting data I came up with while watching his passing. Then, on page 2 and beyond, there are my thoughts on the individual plays themselves. You should note that while the section covering each individual play includes the fumbles, the charting data does not.

Here are the articles so far:

One of the first things I charted for each interception was blame. I assigned three categories, which should be self-explanatory:

Blame

QB’s Fault 8 Partially QB’s fault 3 Not QB’s fault 1

By my count, 3/4ths of Derek Carr’s interceptions were his fault. There was one that I don’t blame him at all for, because a catchable pass bounced off of his receiver’s hands. There were a couple that were only kind of his fault, but most of the interceptions he threw were his fault. When you get to the section with the play breakdowns, you’ll see further explanation for how I assigned blame.

Cause

Bad Decision 9 Bad Throw 8 Pressured 5 Great Defense 4 Dropped Pass 2 Tipped By Defense 1

What caused the interceptions?

I think the majority of the throws from the “bad decision” column can be chalked down to Carr trying to force the ball in a pressure situation (whether it was third down, late in the game, or he was actually under pressure). Those situations also led to some poor throws that were right at defenders. While he was pressured on fewer than half of his interceptions, you can definitely tell that the pressure affected his decision and throw on those plays. Two plays were the result of dropped passes (although one of those drops was because of bad ball placement) and there were 4 plays where I credited the defender for making an excellent play to intercept the ball (usually a diving catch). Still, many of the interceptions were ones that Carr could have prevented from happening.

Distance Breakdown

Fewer than 6 Yards 3 Between 6 and 15 yards 6 More than 15 yards 3

What about distance covered? Carr’s average depth of target on these throws was 12.4 yards. Where on the field was he throwing the ball? Here’s a breakdown of each throw:

Location Breakdown

Deep Left Deep Middle Deep Right 1 1 0 Intermediate Left Intermediate Middle Intermediate Right 1 1 4 Short Left Short Middle Short Right 0 3 1

Carr threw half of his interceptions on intermediate routes, and a third of them on shorter distances, so only two of them were on deep routes. From this data and the distance data on his TD passes in the previous article, it would seem that Carr did not target players deep often last year. That would also help explain his low Y/A. Other than that, I don’t really seem many clear trends in the above data, although passes to the intermediate right seem to be a problem for Carr.

Situational Breakdown

Crunch Time 2 Garbage Time 2 Desperation 1

What about the time left on the clock? First, a breakdown of potential game situations, followed by a breakdown by quarter:

Quarter Breakdown

1st Quarter 1 2nd Quarter 5 3rd Quarter 2 4th Quarter/Overtime 4

With the game close and the ball in his hands, Carr threw two interceptions. He matched that with two TD passes in crunch time. He also threw two interceptions in garbage time (compared to 6 TDs), so those were his four 4th quarter interceptions. Other than that, he seemed to throw most of his interceptions in the 2nd Quarter. They were actually normally towards the beginning of the 2nd, so I don’t really think that means anything.

Down Breakdown

1st Down 3 2nd Down 1 3rd Down 7 4th Down 1

Now let’s take a look at the interceptions he threw by down:

Carr threw most of his interceptions on late downs. This tells me once again that he struggled with forcing passes that weren’t there in situations where he needed to make a play.

Route Breakdown

Vertical 4 Checkdown 3 Dig 2 Comeback 1 Post 1 Out 1

What about the kinds of routes he was throwing to?

Interceptions on vertical routes can be common because a lot of the time you’re throwing a jump ball that you’re asking the receiver to go up and get, and if the DB makes a good play he can pick it off. Three INTs on checkdowns is worrying because those plays are supposed to be safe, not turnovers.

Receiver Breakdown

Mychal Rivera 3 Andre Holmes 2 Vincent Brown 2 Darren McFadden 1 Denarius Moore 1 Maurice Jones-Drew 1 James Jones 1 Brice Butler 1

Finally, lets take a look at who Carr was targeting on his interceptions:

Rivera was one of Carr’s favorite targets last year, so it’s not a big surprise that he was also targeted on the highest number of Carr’s INTs. However, Carr tended to spread out who he was targeting when he threw picks.

Since you’re probably tired of tables at this point, for the rest of the article I’m going to break down each TD pass from the film.