Facing a federal indictment for misuse of campaign funds, Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine) is still the frontrunner in the race for the 50th Congressional District — although with a shrinking advantage over Democratic challenger Ammar Campa-Najjar.

According to a Survey USA poll released Monday, Hunter now has an eight-point lead over his opponent, 47 percent to 39 percent, with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.5 percent.

Rep. Duncan Hunter and wife indicted on fraud and campaign finance charges »

× Facing a federal indictment for misuse of campaign funds, Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine) appears to be maintaining his lead over Democratic challenger Ammar Campa-Najjar in the race for the 50th Congressional District — although with an advantage tha


In the June primary, the top two finishers were Hunter, with 47 percent, and Campa-Najjar at 18 percent.

As the field of candidates has narrowed, Campa-Najjar appears to have consolidated support among Democrats and even potentially picked up backing among some swing voters.

“If you’re Hunter, you take heart in the finding that most Republicans are standing by you. If you’re a Democrat, you take heart that it’s so close,” said Jack Pitney, political science professor at Claremont McKenna College. “A lead like this is not very strong.”

The findings seemed to bolster the hopes of Campa-Najjar’s campaign, which released this statement in response to the poll numbers: “Polling has consistently found this to be a close and competitive race and we are gaining ground every day as voters learn more about Hunter’s corruption and egregious behavior.”


Hunter’s campaign didn’t immediately return a request for comment.

Hunter, and his wife Margaret, were indicted in federal court Aug. 21 for using more than $250,000 in campaign cash for personal purchases.

The couple pleaded not guilty on Thursday. Hunter and his legal team have called the charges a politically motivated witch hunt.

Hunter — who has reportedly been stripped of his committee assignments — faces dozens of counts for everything from conspiracy to commit wire fraud and falsification of records to aiding and abetting in the prohibited use of campaign contributions.


Still, Campa-Najjar, the son of a Mexican-American mother and a Middle Eastern father, doesn’t appear to be an obvious fit for the deeply conservative district.

A staunch environmentalist, he’s also the grandson of Muhammed Yusuf al-Najjar, the head of the intelligence wing of the Palestinian political party Fatah, whose members planned the murder of Israeli Olympians in 1972. Yusuf al -Najjar was subsequently assassinated by the Israeli government.

Rep. Duncan Hunter points to his wife and ‘whatever she did’ in campaign finance scandal »

50th Congressional District candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar spoke outside of Federal Courthouse where his opponent representative Duncan D. Hunter was being arraigned in Federal Court in San Diego (John Gibbins / San Diego Union-Tribune)


The Hunter campaign will likely run attack ads pointing out his opponent’s family history in coming months, which could siphon away party resources from other close races, such as for the 49th Congressional District, said Thad Kousser, chair of the political science department of UC San Diego.

“The Republicans will now have to drop some money on this,” Kousser said. “Democrats might not win, but it could help them flip the 49th. The mostly likely impact is outside the district.”

The 50th district, which Hunter has represented since it was redistricted about five years ago, covers much of East San Diego County, including Ramona, Alpine, Borrego Springs and stretches up to Temecula.

Among Republicans, 77 percent said they were standing behind Hunter, with 72 percent saying the indictment either made no difference or actually increased their support for him.


An indictment is not a conviction, so his supporters are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt while Democrats won’t. Carl Luna, a political science professors at San Diego Mesa College

Sixty four percent of Republicans said the charges against him are politically motivated and that they would vote for him even if he were to step down but his name appeared on the ballot.

“An indictment is not a conviction, so his supporters are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt while Democrats won’t,” said Carl Luna, a political science professor at San Diego Mesa College. “The mantra of the age is deny and castigate accusers. Hunter’s playing that game plan.”

Questions about the use of campaign funds have swirled around Hunter since 2016 when the Federal Election Commission and the San Diego Union-Tribune began looking into expenditures such as for private school tuition, oral surgery, video games and airfare.


Most people polled said they had known about the allegations of corruption since before last week’s indictment, including 84 percent of Republicans and 73 percent of Democrats.

“Allegation of corruption have been here for a while,” said Stephen Goggin, political science professor at San Diego State University. “It’s not sudden, so the indictment itself doesn’t change all that much.”

Democrats support Campa-Najjar 85 percent to Hunter’s 8 percent. Independents, also favored Campa-Najjar by 44 percent to Hunter’s 41 percent. About 14 percent of those with no party preference are still undecided.

Many political analysts agreed that the election could hinge on the level of voter turnout among the political parties.


The Survey USA poll, conducted for the Union-Tribune and 10News, surveyed 539 registered voters, from Aug. 22 to 26, who said they were likely to cast ballots in the race for the 50th Congressional District.


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Email: joshua.smith@sduniontribune.com