Brexit polls: Remain has ‘consistent’ 53-47 lead, but it’s based on non-voters showing up ‘If we take first of all the questions that simply ask people Remain versus Leave we have a narrow but consistent Remain majority’

One of Britain’s top polling experts has said his model shows voters’ desire to remain in the EU is currently commanding a “narrow but consistent” majority, but warned this depends on non-voters who back Remain turning up to vote in any future referendum.

Sir John Curtice, Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde, told BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme on Tuesday that Remain is polling ahead of Leave, as he discussed the Labour Party’s decision to endorse a second referendum between Theresa May’s Brexit deal and staying in the EU.



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But the respected polling expert warned that a great deal of uncertainty abounds over the intentions of voters who make up the slim majority for Remain.

He said: “If we take first of all the questions that simply ask people Remain versus Leave we have a narrow but consistent Remain majority.”

“At the moment my running average says it’s Remain 53 per cent Leave 47 per cent, but it needs to be understood that a lot of that lead and movement since 2016 is not because of people changing their mind but rather because those who did not vote two-and-a-half years ago are at least two-to-one in favour of Remain. So the question is: would they turn out to vote?”

Labour’s move

Read More Theresa May attempts to win over Remain supporting Tories ahead of crunch meaningful vote

Labour announced on Monday night it would back a so-called “people’s vote” on the Brexit deal and Remaining inside the EU would be an option on the ballot paper. Such a move does not yet command sufficient numbers in the House Of Commons, as a number of Labour MPs are strongly against a second referendum.Sir John said polling on a vote between the Prime Minister’s deal and Remain, as Labour is proposing, shows Remain even further ahead, but this would freeze out more hardline Brexit voters.

He said: “There’s then a smaller collection of polls which have asked how you would vote in a referendum between Remain and Mrs May’s deal, in that Remain tends to be rather further ahead, because there is a considerable minority of Leave voters who say, don’t know in response to that question.”

“And certainly, one of the reasons those on the Leave side will not like this referendum is that it rules out effectively the Brexiteers preference of leaving without a deal, which we know for around half of leave voters that is their first preference.”

“So that’s, therefore, going to be something where fighting that referendum on that narrow leave proposition is arguably more difficult for the leave side than the wider proposition.”

The Independent Group

Labour’s big policy move has been brought around in part as an attempt to stem the flow of defections to The Independent Group, a bloc that has been formed by pro-EU Labour and Conservative MPs who are angry over their parties stance on Brexit.

Polling conducted by Yougov over the weekend appeared to show the bloc would gain 18 per cent of the vote if it became a party and contested the next general election. This would put it five percentage points behind Labour.

And initial polling suggests there’s plenty of potential support for a new centre party: 18% of those who would vote currently back @TheIndGroup (should they choose to stand) https://t.co/9eRSHMSxOs pic.twitter.com/ezNYSwGwsp — YouGov (@YouGov) February 26, 2019

But the UK’s first past the post electoral system puts new parties at a considerable disadvantage against Labour and the Conservatives. In the 1983 general election the SDP-Liberal Alliance, made up of MPs who had also broken away from Labour, gained over 25 per cent of the vote share but just 23 seats in Parliament. UKIP faced a similar issue gaining 12.6 per cent of the vote in 2015 but getting just one MP in the Commons.

First past the post, where MPs who win the election in each seat go to the Commons where a majority can form a government, disadvantages smaller parties whose supporters may be spread in smaller numbers across many seats.