After allowing an average of 119 points in the first two games of their first-round series against the Miami Heat, both losses, the Charlotte Hornets turned things around to win Game 3 96-80 at home on April 23.

There were plenty of explanations for how much better Charlotte's defense performed, including a change to the team's starting lineup, better energy and the effect of home-court advantage. But Hornets coach Steve Clifford, who had publicly downplayed the importance of adjustments after Game 2, offered a simpler reason.

"Coach [Pat] Riley is the person that gets credit in this league when anybody says, 'It's a make or miss league,'" Clifford told reporters in the postgame news conference. "The nights when you make, you look good. The nights when you miss, it looks bad."

Clifford's comments might sound like a reductive coaching cliché to outside observers. But they're not.

Advances in statistical analysis have allowed us to better separate the quality of a shot from the outcome of a shot. And these advanced stats support Riley's idea that the result of a game has one dominant factor: whether shots go in or not.