For Pete Buttigieg's presidential hopes, Iowa takes on oversized importance

In politics, it's important to peak at the right time.

Just ask Pete Buttigieg. In November, the mayor of South Bend was atop the polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire. He was making a name for himself in the Democratic debates.

But now, a day before caucusgoers pick the winner in Iowa, it's former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont who are surging in the polls.

That's particularly bad news for Buttigieg, who's lately been trailing in third place, just ahead of Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. The now former mayor of South Bend has a narrow path to the Democratic nomination, and it goes right through mostly white Iowa and New Hampshire. Without at least one of those states, he risks becoming an also-ran — and quickly at that.

"He is counting on strong finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire to give his campaign the momentum it needs to remain viable moving forward," said Elizabeth Bennion, a politics professor at Indiana University-South Bend. "These states, where he and his campaign have spent so much time and energy, are critical to his future as a presidential candidate."

Buttigieg has been criss-crossing Iowa lately, including a dozen events the past four days alone. He and his rivals are pressing hard because polling has consistently shown that many Iowans have not made up their minds and remain open to switching candidates.

The bottom line for Buttigieg

In months of campaigning, no single candidate has been able to separate from the pack with a comfortable lead. The state has ping-ponged from one candidate to another, and another, and another.

Even now, the four front-runners remain within striking distance in most polls.

With the race so close, Buttigieg and Biden, among the top-tier candidates, have an advantage over the two senators down the stretch. Sanders and Warren pulled jury duty in President Trump's impeachment trial, drawing them away from the Midwest at a crucial point in time.

Here's the bottom line for Buttigieg. Bennion thinks he needs to win or place second in Iowa and then New Hampshire to remain a viable contender, given his national polling in the high single digits and continuing struggles to reach minority voters. She said a weaker showing could hurt media exposure, donations and his credibility in states where he's not performing as well.

"His campaign hopes that demonstrating Pete’s ability to win the early caucus and primary contests will encourage voters, including African Americans, to take another look," she said. "He recognizes that it is difficult to build a relationship or foundation of trust in a few months when wary voters are more likely to trust people they’ve known for many decades."

He's got the money to stay in the race for the long haul, so long as he remains a contender to wrap up delegates. Barring fourth- or fifth-place showings, he's probably going to stay in until at least Super Tuesday, most pundits think, but there's a difference between staying in and contending.

Then again, some pundits say Buttigieg's chances are slim even if he wins both Iowa and New Hampshire. Those two mostly white states are not indicative of the Democratic base, said Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia, who remains unconvinced early wins will matter much to black voters.

"He has tanked everywhere but in Iowa and New Hampshire," Sabato said. "Buttigieg came onto the scene fresh and new and with so little of a record it was hard to use against him. But his Achilles heel was very much on display in South Bend."

Sabato was referring to Buttgieg's sometimes bumpy relationship with black voters in his own city, never more apparent than when he had to stop campaigning in 2019 when a white South Bend police officer shot a black man he said was wielding a knife. Since then, Buttigieg has been dogged by questions from black voters and protests from Black Lives Matter.

Candidates to watch in Iowa

While Buttigieg potentially has more at stake in Iowa than the other front-runners, he won't be the only candidate hoping to get a boost from an early win.

If Biden wins in Iowa or New Hampshire, he could put an early end to the race for the nomination. He's been leading most polls in the next two states, Nevada and South Carolina, and is positioned to dominate many of the diverse states that go to the polls March 13 on Super Tuesday.

In all, 48% of black voters favor Biden, according to a Washington Post/Ipsos poll released Jan. 11. Sanders was next at 20%, with all of the other candidates in the single digits.

Buttigieg was mired at 2%.

Biden and Sanders, despite their yin and yang ideas for running the country, are beginning to look like the two candidates to watch, in Iowa and nationally.

It seems odd, one moderate and one progressive. But that's the argument Democratic voters are having now. Do they pick a safer bet to take on President Trump? Or do they roll the dice and go with someone who promises bold ideas?

"That's the division within the party," said Andy Downs, director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Purdue University-Fort Wayne. "Do the Democrats nominate a moderate like Biden, who served under President Obama, or does the party go with the 'let's break the system' crowd?

"People are saying Sanders is akin to Trump in 2016, with voters saying they just want to do things differently, but obviously from the left instead of the right."

Early wins for Sanders would bolster his chances, but few pundits expect him to quit anytime soon regardless of the results . Four years ago, Sanders dogged Hillary Clinton to the Democratic National Convention in July, a race where he won important Midwestern swing states such as Michigan and Wisconsin that will vote in the months ahead. He also won Indiana.

Warren, on the other hand, has been falling in the polls much like Buttigieg. Early wins could bolster her chances, pundits say, but loses could put her campaign on uneven footing. And at this point it's hard to say what her endorsement by the Des Moines Register means, if anything.

FiveThirtyEight.com crunched the polling and endorsement data and gave her a 1 in 9 shot at winning Iowa. The news website gives Biden and Sanders each a 1 in 3 chance. Buttigieg is at 1 in 4.

And then there's billionaire Michael Bloomberg, who's skipping Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Instead, the former New York mayor is pouring millions into the states up for grabs March 13 on Super Tuesday, a bold and unusual primary strategy.

There's evidence his plan has merit. He's jumped past Buttigieg in most national polls, landing in the mid teens. That's more bad news for Buttigieg, but it's difficult to say how bad.

"His numbers have moved in a very attractive way," Downs said of Bloomberg. "I think he can make an argument this strategy is something that can work. Then again, if after spending all of that money he doesn't win a single state on Super Tuesday, he may reconsider how long he will stay in and how much more of his money he wants to spend."

But for this month at least, Bloomberg is an afterthought, sidelined until March.

Iowa voters will have their say Monday.

Call IndyStar reporter Chris Sikich at 317-444-6036. Follow him on Twitter: @ChrisSikich.