Discussion

The amount of opioids prescribed in the United States began to decrease in 2011. However, in 2015, at 640 MME per capita, it remains approximately three times as high as in 1999, when 180 MME per capita were sold in the United States (5), and nearly four times as high as the amount distributed in Europe in 2015 (14).

Two prescribing changes appear to be associated with the decrease in MME prescribed per capita in the United States from 2010 to 2015. First, average daily MME per prescription decreased after 2010, both nationwide and in most counties. The largest decreases occurred from 2010 to 2012, following publication of two national guidelines defining high-dose opioid prescribing as >200 MME/day (15,16). It also coincided with studies demonstrating progressively increasing overdose risk at prescribed opioid dosages exceeding 20, 50, and 100 MME per day (9–11) and publications highlighting associations of prescribed opioids with overdose deaths (5,17). Second, the rate of opioid prescribing decreased nationwide and in many counties. Nationally, opioid prescribing rates leveled off from 2010 to 2012, and then decreased by 13.1% from 2012 to 2015. These decreases might reflect growing awareness among clinicians and patients of the risks associated with opioids. Throughout this period, however, the average duration of opioid prescriptions increased, in part because of the continued increase in longer opioid prescriptions (≥30 days) through 2012, followed by a stabilization of the rate, and a substantial decrease in shorter prescriptions (<30 days) after 2012. This pattern, along with the trends in overall numbers of opioid prescriptions, might reflect fewer patients initiated on opioid therapy after 2012, whereas patients already receiving opioids were more likely to continue receiving them. Patients are at risk for continuing opioids long-term once they have received them for >5 days (18), and are unlikely to discontinue opioids after they have received them for 90 days (19), highlighting both the importance of minimizing unnecessary initial opioid exposure and potential challenges in reducing opioid use among patients already receiving them.

From 2010 to 2015, half of counties in the United States experienced reductions in the amount of opioids prescribed, with substantial decreases in certain states. In 2011 and 2012, Ohio and Kentucky, respectively, mandated that clinicians review Prescription Drug Monitoring Program (PDMP) data and implemented pain clinic regulation (20). MME per capita decreased in 85% of Ohio counties and 62% of Kentucky counties from 2010 to 2015. In Florida, where multiple interventions targeted excessive opioid prescribing from 2010 through 2012, (e.g., pain clinic regulation and mandated PDMP reporting of dispensed prescriptions) (21), the amount of opioids prescribed per capita decreased in 80% of counties from 2010 to 2015. During this time, Florida also experienced reductions in prescription opioid-related overdose deaths (21).

Despite reductions, the amount of opioids prescribed in 2015 remained high relative to 1999 levels and varied substantially across the country, with average per capita amounts prescribed in the top quartile of counties approximately six times the amounts prescribed in the lowest quartile. Larger amounts were prescribed in micropolitan counties and in counties with a higher prevalence of diagnosed diabetes and arthritis. The latter finding might represent treatment for pain associated with these or co-occurring painful conditions. However, there are effective nonopioid treatments for pain whose benefits outweigh the harms (13). Reasons for higher opioid use in micropolitan counties might include less access to quality health care and other treatments for pain, such as physical therapy. In addition, persons in rural areas might travel to micropolitan areas, which often serve as an anchor community for a much larger rural region, to receive medical care and pick up medications.

Despite reductions in opioid prescribing in recent years, opioid-involved overdose death rates continue to increase. However, these increases have been driven largely by use of illicit fentanyl and heroin (1). There is no evidence that policies designed to reduce inappropriate opioid prescribing are leading to these increases. Combined implementation of mandated provider review of PDMP data and pain clinic laws reduced the amount of opioids prescribed, prescription opioid-involved overdose deaths, and all opioid-involved deaths (20). The policies were also associated with reductions in heroin overdose deaths that were not statistically significant (20). By reducing the number of persons exposed to opioids and the subsequent risk of opioid use disorder these policies might reduce the number of persons initiating illicit opioid use in the longer term (20).

The findings in this report are subject to at least four limitations. First, QuintilesIMS estimates of dispensed prescriptions have not been validated, and they do not include prescriptions dispensed directly by prescribers (although this likely represents a small minority of prescribed opioids), potentially biasing opioid prescribing downwards. Second, county-level analyses are aggregated by the county where an opioid is dispensed, and cannot account for prescriptions obtained by persons outside of the county. Third, the analysis does not include clinical outcomes. However, previous analyses have found associations between population-level amounts of opioids prescribed and opioid overdose death rates (5), and between prescribed dosages and individual overdose risk (9–11). Finally, because data on the indications for which opioids were prescribed were not available, the appropriateness of opioid prescriptions, or whether opioids were prescribed for acute, chronic, or end-of-life pain, could not be determined.

Although some variation in opioid prescribing is associated with characteristics such as the prevalence of possibly painful conditions (e.g., arthritis), differences in these characteristics explain only a fraction of the wide variation in opioid prescribing across the United States. This variation suggests inconsistent practice patterns and a lack of consensus about appropriate opioid use and demonstrates the need for better application of guidance and standards around opioid prescribing practices (13). CDC’s Guideline provides evidence-based recommendations about opioid prescribing for primary care clinicians treating adult patients with chronic pain outside of active cancer treatment, palliative care, and end-of-life care (13). The Guideline can help providers and patients weigh the benefits and risks for opioids according to best available evidence and individual patients’ needs and safely taper opioids if risks outweigh benefits. The Guideline recommends the use of nonopioid therapies, such as acetaminophen, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory medications, exercise therapy, and cognitive behavioral therapy for chronic pain (13).

Given associations between opioid prescribing, opioid use disorder, and opioid overdose rates (5), states and local jurisdictions can use these findings to target high-prescribing areas for interventions such as academic detailing for clinicians or individual educational visits to clinicians (22), and increased access to medication-assisted treatment for patients with opioid use disorder. Innovative approaches such as virtual physical therapy sessions with pain coping skills training (23,24) can be used to improve access to effective treatment for chronic pain. In addition, states can consider policies that can reduce opioid overdose, including mandated PDMP use and pain clinic laws (20). Changes in opioid prescribing can save lives. The findings of this report demonstrate that substantial changes are possible and that more are needed.