Christopher R. Hill says Russia has been accused of seeking to scuttle an historic agreement signed between Greece and Republic of North Macedonia in June resolving the 27-year-long diplomatic dispute over the official name of Macedonia and overcoming their mistrust. In the past Greece had objected to the name Macedonia, fearing territorial claims on its eponymous northern region. Athens had vetoed its neighbour's bid to join NATO and the EU.

The “hard-won” agreement “received an overwhelmingly positive response from the international community.” Yet both Greek and Macedonian authorities complained about Russian meddling, like funding anti-government protests in both countries. The Kremlin also “pushed Russian-oriented businesses in Macedonia to foment violence in the run-up to the September 30 referendum,” which allows the Macedonian people to have a say on the new name. Greece’s Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras had survived a no-confidence vote in parliament over the deal to end a decades-old dispute over the name of neighboring Macedonia.

The author says Russia’s mischief infuriates Greece, and the Kremlin has fully underestimated the “agreement’s importance to the Greek government.” The relationship between Moscow and Athens had traditionally been close, partly because of their shared Orthodox faith. Greece has sided with Moscow in several international disputes, like “watering down an EU statement” against Russia for its alleged nerve-agent attacks in the UK earlier this year.

There are approximately 190,000 ethnic Greeks and Pontic Greeks in Russia concentrated along the country’s Black Sea coast and in the North Caucasus Stavropol region. Russian investment in Greece racked up since the Euro crisis in 2010, after the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, made a broad overture to Moscow as a way to bring his country out of its debt and currency impasse.

However, Russian-Greek relations have in the past often promised more than they deliver. Besides Athens is restricted by its EU and NATO memberships. As Russia “has made no secret of its desire to weaken NATO,” it explains why it seeks to derail the Prespa agreement, “hoping to prevent Macedonia from joining the alliance.” Putin resents NATO’s eastward enlargement, that had brought former Soviet states into the Western fold. “But Macedonia was never a member of the Warsaw Pact, nor is it especially vital to Russian interests.”

The author says, given these malign activities, “neither friend nor foe should tolerate Russia’s foreign policy. The Kremlin has stepped up its policy of interfering secretly in other countries’ political processes.” It does not hesitate to hunt down and eliminate former members of its security services inside NATO member states. He says, “looking ahead, it will be important to remember that Russia’s foreign policy is motivated not just by spite and bitterness, but also by a nagging awareness of its own decline.” The Greek and (North) Macedonian leaders “have acquitted themselves well by responding to Russian aggression honestly and courageously,” and other leaders should “have the mettle to do the same.”