Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2015 Waste Management Phoenix Open from TPC Scottsdale

This Week’s Tournament Preview

All eyes will be on Arizona this weekend as the media frenzy descends upon the desert for Super Bowl 49 in Phoenix and the return of Tiger Woods to the PGA TOUR in Scottsdale. Woods planned his return to the tour at this epic, crowd-packed event, and will embark on a new season with a surgically repaired back.

It’s been 13 years since Woods played in this event, where he finished T5 in 2001. Most will remember that tournament as the time when Tiger asked some fans to help him move a large boulder on the 13th hole which was considered a loose impediment. In case you missed this, it was quite a scene:

Phil Mickelson will also be back in action as the second fan favorite this week coming off a decent showing at the Humana Challenge. Lefty comes into Scottsdale having won the WM Phoenix Open three times and could tie some big names if he manages to notch a fourth (Arnold Palmer, Gene Littler and Mark Calcavecchia).

Keep in mind that this event is unlike any event on TOUR. The tournament usually draws hundreds of thousands of spectators and this year turnout should be even more impressive with the Super Bowl also in town.

The classic par 3 16th hole has an enclosed stadium feel that creates an energetic and dramatic setting rarely seen in the sport, with thousands of screaming fans rooting players on as they approach the tee box. Tiger almost collapsed the stands in 1997 when he aced the 16th.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Overall it wasn’t a bad week despite Bill Haas’ surprise victory. We ended up with 6 out of 7 of our picks over the 54-hole cut line and even more importantly, our “horse for the course” pick Kuchar (who we told you to pick over the favorite Patrick Reed) finished just one stroke back at T2.

We also mentioned that Charlie Hoffman would make a great edition to your DraftKings and other salary cap leagues last week, suggesting his $9,100 value to be considered over Brendon Todd’s $9,100 value. This was a wise prediction to say the least, given that Hoffman finished T2 while Todd missed the cut.

In total, we finished the week with four Top 10 finishes, while our two sleeper picks also managed to put up some solid numbers. One sleeper, Justin Thomas, became the storyline of the week as the 21 year old rookie looked to have a shot at winning the event—if it wasn’t for that troublesome double bogey on his 70th hole. Thomas ended up just two strokes back from Haas and still managed to finish T7, earning us some serious fantasy points in the process.

Finally, our ‘Super Sleeper’ pick Shawn Stefani charged back to finish T15, contributing nicely to our Kuchar/Hoffman/Thomas/Stefani salary cap lineup that combined for a solid fantasy points payday.

Total weekly earnings across all seven picks for the Humana Challenge was $1,135,820, not a bad showing considering the tournament purse was only $5.7 million and our picks took home 20% of it. With another week in the books, we’ve now successfully converted a average weekly tournament earnings of $915,407 in the last nine events of the 2014-15 season. Even better, only six players have missed the cut out of 63 players picked.

The Field

As mentioned, Tiger Woods will return to Scottsdale after a 13 year break from this event. Phil Mickelson will join Woods and ten other players who sit in the Top 25 in World Rankings. That list includes Bubba Watson—who loves riling up the fans on the 16th hole—Matt Kuchar, Jordan Spieth, and Rickie Fowler. Remember that Bubba finished runner-up to Kevin Stadler here last year—who will not be in attendance to defend his title due to a hand injury.

The story will also continue to be Robert Allenby, who will make his first start since he was beaten and robbed in Hawaii after allegedly running up a $3400 strip club bill.

Also be on the lookout for hot 2014-2015 season hitters like Ryan Palmer, Justin Thomas, and Robert Streb, who will all be back in action this week to attempt a desert victory.

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The Course

TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) measures in at 7,266 yards and plays as a par 71. Known for being the most attended and loudest venue on the PGA TOUR, this beautiful desert track was designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish and will show off the recent $12 million face lift that it received last summer.

The course will offer a handful of new green locations as well as significant changes on the par-5 13th hole, but rest assured, the roudy 16th is still set to contain nearly 20,000 screaming fans.

Be sure to check out our fantasy notes segment below to find out more about how the course will play this week and what other factors we’re considering about TPC Scottsdale when making our selections this week.

Weather Forecast for Scottsdale, AZ (from weather.com)

Surprisingly enough, you can actually expect some wet conditions this week in Arizona. Round 1 will kick off with the usual dry 80 degree desert heat but a storm is set to move in on Friday with a 60% chance of rain and temperatures dropping into the low 60s. The rain will continue to threaten into Saturday morning but thankfully we can still expect a beautifully sunny closing round come Sunday.

With the impending rain greens may run a little slower than usual, but the current weather temperatures won’t factor in too heavily into our selections this week.

2014 Results

Kevin Stadler rode his consistent groove to the finish line as Bubba Watson crumbled at the close where he couldn’t save par on the 72nd hole. After bogeys on 16 and 18 by Watson, the door opened for Stadler where he was able to put the pressure back on Watson coming into the 18th.

Watson flew the green with his second shot on 18 and knocked his chip shot 5 feet past the hole. Meanwhile, Stadler managed a two-putt from 10 feet for a closing 68 and simply waited patiently for Watson’s putt, that if made could have forced a playoff. Bubba missed the hole left and victory was in Stadler’s corner for the first time in his career.

Here is a full recap of what happened in the final round of the 2014 Waste Management Phoenix Open:

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

Television Broadcasts Thursday – Friday 3:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST (Golf Channel) Saturday – Sunday 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm EST (Golf Channel) Saturday – Sunday 3:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST (CBS)



Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM) Thursday – Friday 1:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST Saturday – Sunday 1:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST



Mobile Broadcasts Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra app for iPhone and iPad.



This Week’s Fantasy Notes

The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale, while unpleasant to the weekend amateur, can be a easier test to most of the players on TOUR. For 2015 the track will ring in 114 yard longer then it played last year, and some of the bunkers have shallowed.

The three total par-5s all average about 560 in yardage which will allow some of the big hitters to get there in two. We’ll use stats like Par-5 scoring, Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy to help us wade through the sea of stellar players this week.

Lastly, a key stat that a lot of people overlook is the ‘all-around’ ranking. This stat measures how well a player ranks in the categories of Scoring, Putting, Eagle, Birdie, Sand Saves, Greens in Regulation, Driving Distance, and Driving Accuracy and is calculated based on the number of events they played.

The question all fantasy players will have on their minds this week is, “do we go with Tiger?” We’ll help you with that decision in our picks segment below.

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2015 Waste Management Phoenix Open

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Last Week’s Results: Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 Humana Challenge

Matt Kuchar: (Golficity Odds 8/1): T2 ($342,000)

Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 12/1): T24 ($46,170)

Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 18/1): T10 (136, 800)

Charlie Hoffman (Golficity 24/1): T2 ($342,000)

Brendon Todd (Golficity Odds 24/1): MC

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 Humana Challenge

Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 38/1): T7 ($177,650)

Last Week’s Results Salary Cap Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2015 Humana Challenge

Shawn Stefani (Golficity Odds 50/1): T15 ($91,200)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD Stats: 2014-2015 Season

Tournaments Played 2014-2015: 9

Total Fantasy Dollars for the season: $8,238,663 ($915,407 weekly average).

Total Top 10s: 19 out of 63 picks (30.16%)

Total Top 3s: 10 out of 63 picks (15.87%)

Runner-Up Finishers: 3 in 9 events (33.33%)

Total Winners Picked: 1 in 9 events (11.11%)

Total Missed Cuts: 6 out of 63 players picked (90.48% made the cut).

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2015 Waste Management Phoenix Open with other Premium Members.

(Cover Photo Credit)

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