In fact, the people who must do the reopening — state and local officials and businesses — know that even if they (irresponsibly) opened tomorrow, the vast majority of Americans would not feel safe enough to return to congested malls, offices, public transportation, religious services, entertainment venues and recreational spaces. When food production plants in rural states with few cases of the coronavirus continued operation, hot spots soon formed.

Trump’s rhetoric, amplified by right-wing media and Facebook trolls, has prompted mass demonstrations that have the potential to reignite more outbreaks, making reopening even harder to achieve.

AD

AD

In Florida, we will see how many cases develop in wake of Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’s decision to reopen beaches (where social distancing was uneven and few masks were in sight). How many more deaths will it take for Trump and his cult to comprehend that their insistence on a swift reopening absent the right conditions puts lives at risk?

Trump’s advisers are increasingly candid in their warnings. Appearing on ABC’s “Good Morning America," Anthony Fauci, director of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, cautioned that “unless we get the virus under control, the real recovery, economically, is not going to happen.” He warned that demands from protesters to reopen the economy would “backfire”:

Former government officials are even more blunt. Scott Gottlieb, who previously served in the Trump administration as head of the Food and Drug Administration, said on Monday that we will not have adequate testing in the immediate future. “We’re not going to be there. We’re not going to be there in May, we’re not going to be there in June, hopefully we’ll be there by September,” he said. He warned: “I mean, we won’t have the testing that we want until September, I think, in terms of kind of broad coverage. You’re still going to see high positivity rates heading into May.” This does not mean that the same level of restrictions in place now must remain everywhere; however, the faster we reopen, the higher risk of more breakouts and more deaths.

AD

AD

Trump is therefore correct in one sense: With restrictions in place, the recession will be prolonged, likely with high rates of unemployment extending to the end of the year. Steven Rattner, who served as car czar in the Obama administration, calculates that we likely have lost as many jobs as were gained in the post-Great Recession period (about 22 million jobs). Explaining that forecasts are getting gloomier, he tweets: “The severity of the downturn is a moving target. Before the virus, JP Morgan thought the [unemployment] rate in this quarter would be 3.8%. On March 18, they raised that to 6.3%; a week later they raised it to 8.3% and on April 9 they upped it to 20%.” Rattner added that the most recent stimulus package from Congress is "shaping up to be woefully inadequate. In addition to its exhaustion after two weeks, the small business relief program (and the enhanced [unemployment] benefits) are set to expire long before the unemployment is down to reasonable levels.”

Put it all together, and you get an unpleasant and unavoidable picture. We will not readily reopen large segments of the economy until testing expands exponentially, something Trump has resisted taking responsibility for, and as a result we are looking at a prolonged, painful recession. That’s not a “pessimistic” view; that’s reality. Rather than con people into believing there is some easy and quick fix or that this is all the fault of governors, Trump and Republicans would be well advised to move heaven and earth to increase testing and expand the safety net that people will depend upon until the crisis ends with discovery, manufacture and distribution of a vaccine.