Alia Beard Rau

The Republic | azcentral.com

Arizona's minimum-wage earners appear to be on track for a raise, according to a new Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll that showed Proposition 206 leading by a wide margin.

Of the 779 likely Arizona voters surveyed, 58.4 percent said they were in favor of Prop. 206, while 31.6 percent said they were against the measure. Another 10 percent said they hadn't yet decided how they will vote on the measure in the Nov. 8 general election.

The statewide telephone poll was conducted Oct. 10 to Oct. 15. The poll question's margin of error was plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

A yes vote on Proposition 206, also called the Healthy Working Families Initiative, would increase the minimum wage from Arizona's current $8.05 per hour to $10 per hour by 2017 and eventually to $12 per hour by 2020. It also would require employers to offer paid sick time. A no vote would maintain the current regulations. Currently, the state adjusts the minimum wage annually based on inflation. Employers set their own paid-sick-leave policy.

"This is just confirmation of what we've been saying all along," said Tomas Robles, chairman of the Arizona Healthy Families campaign. "We're knocking on thousands of doors every day, talking to individuals. We're excited that folks are in agreement that our families deserve better."

Lea Marquez Peterson, president and CEO of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce and an opponent of Prop. 206, said she's not surprised by the numbers. She said when people first hear about the idea of raising the minimum wage, they are generally supportive. But when she has a chance to talk to them about the negative impact many small businesses will see — from cutting shifts to raising prices — voters change their minds, she said.

The question now, she said, is whether they can reach enough people by Nov. 8 to turn the tide.

"We are using social media, chamber meetings, small-group sessions, public hearings," she said. "We are trying to get the word out one by one as people realize this is on the ballot."

The challenge, Marquez Peterson said, is making voters aware that Prop. 206 is even on the ballot and getting them to vote beyond the presidential race.

"There's a lot of passion around the presidential election, so I've changed my talking points to ask people to go beyond the top of the ballot," she said. "Pay attention to the entire ballot."

Garrick Taylor, Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry senior vice president of government relations and communications, opposes Prop. 206. He equates the effort to defeat Prop. 206 to pushing a big rock uphill.

About the Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll

The campaign committee supporting Prop. 206 has raised $1.5 million.

About a third of that money has come from out-of-state groups, including national union organizations.

The committee opposing it reports no funds raised or spent, according to the most recently available campaign filings.

However, a number of large, influential business groups, including the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry, have been vocal opponents.

"Hopefully voters will ask why out-of-state labor interests have such a deep fascination with what's going on with Arizona's minimum-wage laws," Taylor said.

Taylor said his organization got involved fighting Prop. 206 because it believed it was the right thing to do to stand up for job creators who will be faced with increased labor costs.

"We are going to do all we can in the remaining weeks to remind Arizona voters that Prop. 206, if passed, will hurt the very individuals proponents claim to want to help," he said. "It will make hiring more expensive. Those at the bottom end of the wage scale and those just beginning their work life are going to see diminished opportunities."

According to the poll, registered Republicans were somewhat split on Prop. 206, while a vast majority of Democrats and more than half of independents indicated they would vote for the minimum-wage hike.

The poll showed the measure is most popular among registered voters with a high-school diploma or less education, individuals who identify their racial background as "other" than white or Hispanic and individuals over age 51.

Robles said the numbers show that minimum wage isn't a partisan issue. And he said it makes sense that Prop. 206 is resonating with older voters.

"A lot of our older voters in the recession ended up having to go back to work and supplement their income or their retirement," Robles said. "They realized the amount of work they were putting in was not being reflected in the salaries."

Also, he said, those adults are the parents of millennials.

"They see their kids graduate from college and get a job with a small salary and they can't move out of the house," he said. "They're starting to see from their own kids' perspective that it's really not like it used to be. They money doesn't stretch."

The overall support of Prop. 206 among registered voters polled has fallen slightly since a similar poll in August. Then, 61 percent of those polled indicated they would support the wage hike; 31 percent were opposed. The remaining 8 percent were undecided.