UPDATED: Brown Polls Show Raimondo and Elorza Leading

Two new polls from Brown University's Taubman Center - their first since April and a revamping of their polling efforts - shows Gina Raimondo leading in the race for Governor and Jorge Elorza leading the Providence Mayoral contest.

The two outcome were done in different polls with different sampling sizes.

The last Brown University poll released in April of 2014 came under widespread criticism for its methodology.

Since then, Professor Marian Orr was replaced by Jim Morrone. In addition, it was announced that the Watson Institute at Brown and the Taubman Center would merge.

Elorza's campaign issued the following statement moments after the release of the Brown poll, "This poll confirms what our grassroots campaign has learned from thousands of residents, door to door in every neighborhood of our city. Voters want honest leadership for a new direction in Providence, and Jorge is their choice for Mayor. Our campaign is gaining the kind of momentum that will be hard to stop heading into the final days of this important election."

In response to the poll, Cianci released the following statement, "We aren’t worried about this poll at all. We have a strong ground game in every corner of this city, and our internal polls have us well ahead. We have hundreds of volunteers out in the field and on the phones every day. I can feel the energy when I am out there campaigning. It doesn’t matter what Brown University says on October 23rd. The only thing that matters is that on November 4th the people of Providence will stand up and vote for the experienced leadership that will put an end to a decade of decline.”

See the Brown University press announcement below:

Two new public opinion surveys by Brown University’s A. Alfred Taubman Center for Public Policy and American Institutions find that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Raimondo, and Providence mayoral candidate Jorge Elorza, also a Democrat, lead their respective opponents by 10 points.

The first poll surveyed a random sample of 1,129 likely registered Rhode Island voters about statewide races, the Providence mayoral race, a statewide ballot measure, the state of the economy, and government approval ratings. This poll was conducted Oct. 14-17, 2014, and has an overall margin of error of 2.9 percent. A second poll surveyed a random sample of 500 likely registered Providence voters about that city’s mayoral race. It was conducted Oct. 21-22, 2014, and has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

The governor’s race

Raimondo leads the governor’s race with 41.6 percent of likely voters choosing her. Men and women support Raimondo at nearly identical rates. Republican candidate Allan Fung has 30.5 percent of likely voters, and Moderate candidate Robert Healey is at 9.1 percent. However, 18 percent of voters are still undecided about their choice for governor. Likely voters of all ages support Raimondo in greater numbers than Fung with the exception of one age group: Among voters ages 40 to 49, Raimondo and Fung are in a statistical tie. A majority of Democrats (55.4 percent) plan to vote for Raimondo, with a strong majority of Republicans voting for Fung (64 percent). Among voters who identify as Independent, Raimondo (38.6 percent) has a slight edge over Fung (34.1 percent). Among voters with no party affiliation, Fung leads with 36.6 percent and Raimondo has 28.9 percent.

The Providence mayoral race

In the poll conducted Oct. 14-17, 2014, a sample of 500 likely Providence voters favored Democratic candidate Jorge Elorza (47.6 percent) over Independent candidate Vincent A. Cianci Jr. (37.2 percent). Three percent chose Republican candidate Daniel Harrop and 12.2 percent were undecided. Cianci’s strongest support came from Republicans (67.9 percent), with 17.9 percent of this group choosing Elorza. A majority of Democrats favor Elorza (55.3 percent) with 31.9 percent of this group choosing Cianci. Among likely voters identifying as Independent or unaffiliated, the two frontrunners are in a statistical tie, with both candidates garnering about 40 percent of these groups.

In a follow-up poll conducted Oct. 21-22, 2014, Elorza was found to lead Cianci by a nearly identical margin, with 48.4 percent of voters choosing Elorza and 38 percent choosing Cianci. This margin reflects both likely voters and respondents who indicated that they had already voted (5.6 percent of the sample). Harrop drew 2.8 percent of the vote, and 9.6 percent indicated that they are still undecided with less than two weeks remaining before the November 4, 2014, general election.

Other statewide races

In the race for general treasurer, likely voters are favoring Democratic candidate Seth Magaziner (47.0 percent) over Independent Ernest Almonte (33.1 percent) with 19.8 percent still undecided. Democrat Nellie Gorbea leads the race for secretary of state (37.7 percent) over Republican John Carlevale (23 percent), but 39.2 percent of voters remain undecided. In the race for lieutenant governor, undecided voters (46.6 percent) greatly outnumber those who favor Democratic candidate Daniel McKee (29.3 percent), Republican candidate Catherine Taylor (20.2), Moderate candidate William Gilbert (2.4 percent) and Libertarian candidate Tony Jones (1.5 percent).

Constitutional Convention

The poll asked likely voters about state ballot Question 3, which, if approved, would call a convention to revise the Rhode Island Constitution. A third of voters said they know nothing at all about Question 3 and 31 percent said they know a fair amount or a great deal about this question. Forty-two percent of voters would approve Question 3; 26.8 percent would reject it; and 30.9 don’t know how they will vote.

Pessimism about state government and the economy

Nearly eight in 10 Rhode Island voters (78 percent) are dissatisfied with how the state is governed, and just 14.9 percent were satisfied. When asked to compare the effectiveness of Rhode Island’s government with other states, a strong majority (61.2 percent) felt that Rhode Island is doing a worse job, 28.6 percent felt the state government is doing about the same as other states and just 4.3 percent feel Rhode Island’s government is better than other states. Nine out of 10 voters think Rhode Island’s economy is in not-so-good or poor shape, and just 7.3 percent rate the local economy as excellent or good. However, a majority (60.3 percent) says their personal finances are excellent or good, and 36.4 percent say their finances are not so good or poor.

James Morone, professor of political science and director of the Taubman Center, will be available for interviews and further analysis during the day at 401-863-1573.

Related Slideshow: 10 Factors - Cianci or Elorza

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