The Blue Jays appear ready to dip their toes into the free-agent pool. The problem is they’re starting from the wrong end.

By most accounts, Toronto is going to be an aggressive buyer this winter and the Jays should have more financial flexibility than just about any team in the majors. If ever there was a time to take a run at the biggest names available, this is it.

The annual general managers’ meetings opened Monday in Arizona, where Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg figure to dominate the headlines. Both would be a perfect fit on just about any roster, but particularly in Toronto where the Jays have a young core of position players locked up long term.

The Jays aren’t ready to contend, and adding a potential Cy Young arm likely wouldn’t change that, but it would be a big step forward and increase the chances of winning in 2021. The thing is, it’s not going happen. Not because of president Mark Shapiro, not because of general manager Ross Atkins, but because of the ownership group, Rogers Communications.

Toronto currently has approximately $40 million in guaranteed salaries (all dollars U.S.) for 2020, a number that moves closer to $60 million once arbitration cases are considered. Add in players with one to three years’ service and it still falls almost $100 million short of the payrolls from 2016-17.

The projected costs won’t be on the rise any time soon. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. isn’t eligible for arbitration until after the 2022 season. Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio won’t get there until a year later. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is locked in for another four years at an average of $4.4 million.

The financials look even better next year when Troy Tulowitzki comes off the books. The only long-term contract of note belongs to Randal Grichuk, who is owed $44 million over the next four years. The short-term result is a projected payroll that resembles small-market Tampa Bay more than it does a city the calibre of Toronto.

The Jays don’t disclose spending limits, but the expectation is that the club should be somewhere in the range of $100 million, perhaps closer to $110 million next season. Spending $40 million to 50 million per year on the open market — or through trade — is nothing to sneeze at, and yet there should be the potential for so much more.

Mid-tier free agents who have been linked to the Jays — such as Zack Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and maybe even Wade Miley — would be welcome additions. They would fill an area of need, but an argument could be made that the Jays should be aiming higher. This is an off-season where they have an ability to use their deep pockets to do more.

A frequent excuse is that free agents the calibre of Cole or Strasburg would never come to Toronto. They wouldn’t move to another country, pay foreign taxes and uproot their families. Occasionally that might be true, but overall it’s a stereotype that ignores the most obvious desire of free agents.

Money talks. The Padres likely never would have been Manny Machado’s first choice, but they offered the most cash, so he packed his bags and travelled west. Bryce Harper didn’t seem to care where he ended up. He just wanted a record-breaking deal.

If Rogers was willing to think outside the box, it would approve a large spike in payroll to accommodate the signing of a top free agent to a heavily front-loaded deal. Start the bidding at $40 million per year over the first three seasons and drastically cut the annual salary over the duration of the contract. Pay someone like Cole top dollar now, in exchange for flexibility later when Guerrero, Biggio and Bichette are due large raises. A side benefit of spending more upfront is that the trade value may improve with time, instead of the other way around.

A move like that won’t be possible when the young core needs to be signed through their free-agent seasons. It might not even be doable two years from now when those players are on the cusp of arbitration. The time to strike should be within the next two years, and the current pool of available starters is better than it’s going to be after the 2020 season.

None of this is expected to happen, of course, and that’s an indictment on Rogers, which chooses to operate this ball club as a mid- to lower-tier franchise when it should have a permanent presence as a top-10 market. There’s nothing wrong with a rebuild — the Jays needed one — but Rogers didn’t have to quit spending to make it happen.

Toronto’s payroll dipped to $114 million in 2019, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. There’s a good chance it will be even lower in 2020. That’s inexcusable for this market, especially from an ownership group that has the ability to absorb short-term losses as part of a long-term vision.

There should be benefits to being owned by a corporation. The Jays don’t have one individual who might struggle to pay the bills when revenue is down. There is no risk of bankruptcy. Rogers has deeper pockets than just about any owner in professional sports and yet Toronto rarely benefits from the flexibility that should come with it.

The fan base proved itself during the post-season runs. Ownership has a responsibility to do the same. Shapiro was quoted earlier this year saying there will come a time when the Jays outspend their projected revenue. That time should be now, not when the salaries for Toronto’s in-house stars are on the rise.

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The only issue with adding talent this off-season, instead of waiting another year or two, is the risk of losing money until the team contends and the fans return. Why would ownership be willing to spend upwards of $160 million and operate at a loss until then?

The answer is, they probably aren’t. But Rogers bought 80 per cent of the Blue Jays for $200 million in 2000, and according to Forbes the value of the franchise now sits at $1.5 billion. There have been enough capital gains to offset decades of losses, let alone a year or two. Unfortunately, it’s doubtful the board at Rogers feels the same way.

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca

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