The NFL draft is a fascinating phenomenon. This seemingly mundane event in which NFL teams choose college players to join their ranks has become incredibly popular in America: The first round of the 2014 draft drew 32 million viewers, a number that topped every 2014 championship-winning game in the other Big Four sports: Game 7 of the 2014 World Series (the most-watched World Series game in the last four years) drew 23.5 million viewers, Game 5 of the 2014 NBA Finals was watched by 22.4 million, and Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals saw just 6 million people tune in. This spectacle – again, in which nothing even remotely resembling action occurs – has captured the attention of American sports fans such as myself. The draft itself is highly intriguing, as there are a vast number of college players to watch film on, research, and project to the next level. Each team develops a strategy for the draft, deciding how they grade each prospect, what they feel are their positions of greatest need, if they would rather choose a polished, instant-impact player or a raw prospect with freakish athleticism but unrefined technique, and more. These strategies are never apparent until the draft is completed (if they ever are at all), but that doesn’t stop amateur scouts from imagining scenarios for how the selections will play out. Here is my attempt at divining the first round of this year’s draft (not including draft day trades, which will inevitably shake up the whole round):

Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff, QB California

This pick is all but guaranteed at this point. The Rams gave up a huge haul of picks: a first round pick, two seconds, and a third in this year’s draft and another first and third next year. They clearly view either Jared Goff or Carson Wentz as a potential franchise quarterback, and that is by far the most valuable commodity in football. Given the risk inherent in this trade and the fact that LA will likely expect this QB to start immediately, I expect them to take Goff. He has been the top quarterback on most people’s boards for quite a while and is far more polished than Wentz. He may not have the physical upside that Wentz does given his slender frame and lesser arm talent, but he has a very high floor and seems to be a relatively safe pick given his high football IQ and experience. Goff’s three-year NCAA career saw him start 37 games and throw for over 12,000 yards with 96 touchdowns and just 30 interceptions. His short- and mid-range accuracy is already well developed, and while arm strength isn’t his defining characteristic, he is very capable of putting enough zip on the ball to fit it into tight windows. There are some concerns about how he will transition from the wide-open, shotgun-oriented Bear Raid to a pro-style offense that asks him to operate from under center, but his excellent pocket presence and footwork mean the transition should be manageable. There may be a learning curve as he adjusts to a new scheme and deals with the Rams’ lack of weapons in the passing game, but his skillset is refined enough to trust with the starting job and an NFL strength program could make him the franchise QB that the team has been lacking for the last decade.

Alternate Pick: Carson Wentz

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Philadelphia Eagles: Carson Wentz, QB North Dakota State

Rumors of the Eagles’ desire to draft a quarterback have lingered all offseason, but many fans thought they were put to bed when the team Rumors of the Eagles’ desire to draft a quarterback have lingered all offseason, but many fans thought they were put to bed when the team signed Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel to contracts worth up to $56 million combined with $34 million guaranteed . Turns out, no one knew just how desperate Howie Roseman and Doug Pederson were to add a young signal-caller to the fray. They followed up the Rams-Titans deal with a similarly massive pick package to move from the eighth pick to the second: a first, a third, and a fourth this year, a first next year, and a second in 2018 for #2 this year and a conditional fourth next year. The Eagles now hold only two picks in the first four rounds of this year’s draft, so they appear to be putting a lot of faith in this pick to have a huge impact on the team over the next few years. This could be a match made in heaven, as the Eagles get a rare shot at a potential franchise quarterback and Wentz gets a season to adjust to NFL speed while learning from a former #1 overall pick (Bradford), a cerebral film junkie (Daniels), and a ten-year NFL quarterback and former QB coach (Pederson). It’s easy to fall in love with Wentz’s physical profile (6’5″, 237 lbs), big arm, and mobility and see all the tools of an elite NFL quarterback, but some of his mechanics and mental skills (looking off safeties, reading multiple options) are still underdeveloped. Wentz has great arm talent and can sling it with the best of them, but it will be important to improve his accuracy in what will most likely be a West Coast-influenced offensive playbook. He is a quintessential high-risk, high-reward pick at QB, but that risk – which mostly lied in concerns about his ability to master the mental side of the position – can be mitigated by Philadelphia’s situation.

Alternate Pick: Jared Goff

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San Diego Chargers: Laremy Tunsil, OT Ole Miss

San Diego is the real winner of these trades. Since they are already set at quarterback, they effectively have the first overall pick of players on their board. They are currently rolling with King Dunlap at left tackle, which is not a good idea when you play in the best pass-rushing division in the league (Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware on the Broncos, Tamba Hali and Justin Houston on the Chiefs, and Khalil Mack on the Raiders). Tunsil is a mammoth physical specimen who uses his incredible physical gifts to overpower defensive linemen in both the run and pass games. He is one of the best tackle prospects in a long time, maybe since Joe Thomas in 2007, and would be a lock to start for the Chargers from day one. It is likely that he would begin his career on the right side of the line as former RT DJ Fluker moves inside to guard, but he has the tools to become one of the league’s premier LTs very quickly.

Alternate Pick: Jalen Ramsey

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Dallas Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott, RB Ohio State

Jalen Ramsey might be the best pick in this situation, but Elliott would be the flashy choice for a team that struggled to find an identity on the ground in 2015 and Jerry Jones has never been one to shy away from the spotlight. Even though I personally think this is too early to take a running back given their short shelf lives and the value that can be found in later rounds, I’m not convinced that the Cowboys have the same mindset. Darren McFadden was serviceable last year, but he will be 29 when the season opens and is extremely injury-prone. Dallas’ defense ranked in the middle of the pack last season and has a promising defensive back in Byron Jones, but the offense struggled mightily at times. The Cowboys’ “win now” window is closing fast as age and injuries shorten Tony Romo’s career, and Elliot has the well-rounded skillset to contribute as a three-down back immediately. He is one of the best prospects in recent memory (behind Todd Gurley but better than anyone else since 2012) at the position with the easiest transition between college and the pros; as a runner, he has an excellent combination of speed (4.47 second 40 yard dash) and power to beat defenders to the edge or break tackles up the middle. He also has demonstrated success as a receiver and is an exceptional pass blocker, putting him in a position to explode onto the NFL scene behind the league’s best run-blocking line and reinvigorate the Dallas offense.

Alternate Pick: Jalen Ramsey

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Jalen Ramsey, FS/CB Florida State

It would be a shock to see Ramsey – who has been on the fringes of the #1 overall pick discussion in recent weeks – slip this far, but the Jaguars won’t complain. They have built a quietly solid secondary and just added Pro Bowl free safety Tashaun Gipson, but Ramsey would be an immediate upgrade at either safety or cornerback. He has incredible athleticism and the size (6’1″ 209 lbs) that teams are looking for in outside cornerbacks, but has experience at CB, FS, and STAR (FSU’s hybrid safety/linebacker position). The biggest question is exactly where he will play (although his question is “At which of these positions will he be more dominant?”, not “Can he play either of these positions consistently?” like a typical hybrid prospect). He has the physical tools to completely shut down one side of the field in a press-man scheme by bodying the receiver out of the play, but his coverage instincts, change-of-direction abilities, and catching skills need a bit of work if he’s going to play CB full time. He has the straight-line speed and tackling ability to be a force from the safety position, but safeties are significantly less valuable in today’s NFL than boundary cornerbacks. Nonetheless, he is up there with Tunsil as one of the most physically dominant players in the draft and Gus Bradley would be happy to take him and worry about where he fits later.

Alternate Pick: Joey Bosa

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Baltimore Ravens: Joey Bosa, DE/OLB Ohio State

Once considered the top prospect in the draft, Bosa’s stock has fallen a bit. While this is mostly due to other prospects rising rather than his own outlook diminishing, Bosa’s 4.86 second 40 yard dash at the combine may have some teams concerned. He dominated other drills, turning in the fifth-best broad jump, the second-best three cone drill, and the second-best twenty yard shuttle among defensive linemen. His game at OSU was never predicated on speed; rather, he used his power, hand technique, and short-area quickness to run over, through, and around offensive tackles. The speed concerns may scare away some 4-3 teams that wanted to use him as a pure edge rusher, but his other attributes make him a perfect fit in Baltimore’s hybrid 3-4 defense. He will be able to step in immediately to fill the hole left by Courtney Upshaw’s departure. Like Upshaw, he will be expected to set the edge against the run while Terrell Suggs acts as the pass rushing specialist on the other side. If the Ravens need to move to a four man front, Bosa can shift to the line and play as a three or five technique.

Alternate Pick: Laremy Tunsil

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San Francisco 49ers: DeForest Buckner, DE Oregon

This is more than just a “Chip Kelly Oregon bias” pick. The Niners have serious holes on their defensive line as opposed to slightly less serious holes in their linebacker corps, thus the selection of Buckner over Myles Jack. Buckner has seen a meteoric rise in the rankings recently, and for good reason. His 6’7″ frame is pretty much the prototype for a defensive end in San Francisco’s 3-4 scheme, and he has the athleticism and production to match. Last year, the 49ers drafted fellow Duck Arik Armstead with the seventeenth overall pick, and Buckner is essentially just a souped-up version of Armstead. Chip Kelly is not afraid to go against conventional wisdom to grab players that he loves (see Taylor Hart, Josh Huff, Jordan Hicks), and Buckner’s 10 sacks last season while usually being double teamed show that his pass rush abilities are exceptional despite the natural leverage limitations of being such a mammoth man. A solid defensive line would eat up blockers to let the linebackers, the core of the 49er defense, roam free and make plays on the ball.

Alternate Pick: Myles Jack

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Cleveland Browns: Myles Jack, LB UCLA



Alternate Pick: Paxton Lynch

. This was a great spot for Cleveland to trade down to, as Elliott and both QBs going in the top ten effectively guarantees that they will get one of Bosa, Buckner, or Jack. Jack may be the most likely of the three to fall given the mixed opinions on how his medical recheck went . The Browns have a litany of defensive needs, and Jack, like Ramsey, is the kind of player you take when he is available and worry about fitting in later. He is a top-tier athlete who played linebacker, cornerback, safety, and even running back at UCLA before his junior year was cut short by a knee injury. He would be an excellent fit in Ray Horton’s 3-4 defense as a player who could play immediately as a coverage inside linebacker while occasionally moving to the outside to cover slot receivers or rush off the edge. He has the speed and agility of a running back and is capable of moving sideline to sideline to make a play. He may fit a little better in a 4-3 so that he can avoid having to fight through traffic and engage blockers, but having a player of his versatility would allow Cleveland to take full advantage of a variety of hybrid 3-4 looks to throw off the offense. He is a bit of a risk due to his injury, but with six picks in the top 100 as well as multiple extra high picks in 2017 and 2018, the Browns are exactly the kind of team that can take such a gamble on upside and not be devastated if the worst happens (and Jack falling due to injury may be exactly the kind of market inefficiency new Chief Strategy Office Paul DePodesta may be looking for).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Vernon Hargreaves, CB Florida

Hargreaves is the premier cover corner in the draft, displaying all of the technical traits that teams are looking for in their secondaries. He may not be the physical specimen that Ramsey is, but he is still a premier athlete and is a more polished player at the moment. He doesn’t have ideal size at 5’10”, but his 39 inch vertical jump at the combine (good for fourth among CBs) shows that he can hang with taller receivers. He has incredible instincts in zone coverage and has demonstrated the ability to bait a quarterback into an errant throw and then fly in for the interception, but he is also highly physical and can hold his own in man coverage by using his fluid hips to mirror the receiver’s routes. Tampa just signed Brent Grimes, but he is coming off of a down year (ranked 60th in the league by Pro Football Focus) and there are no proven candidates to start across from him with veteran Alterraun Verner appearing to fall out of favor with the coaching staff. Hargreaves, who was born in Tampa and played college ball just two hours away in Gainesville, has the ability to develop into a shutdown cornerback and would give the team a legitimate star on the perimeter.

Alternate Pick: Ronnie Stanley

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New York Giants: Ronnie Stanley, OT Notre Dame

The Giants have plenty of holes on this roster that they could look to fill here, but Stanley happens to be the best player available and play a position of need. New York’s interior line is looking good with Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg performing well at guard and center respectively, but their tackle situation is a mess. The recent loss of longtime starter Will Beatty after a string of injuries forced rookie Ereck Flowers into the starting LT spot and placed human turnstile Marshall Newhouse at RT. Flowers, last year’s first round pick, has a lot of natural talent but was not given time to develop his technique before being thrown into action and performed very poorly in pass protection. He is likely more suited to play on the right side where he can use his size and strength to overpower defenders in the run game while avoiding the opponent’s most dominant pass rushers. Stanley is a prototypical NFL left tackle, with extremely well-developed footwork and hand usage technique but a lack of elite athleticism. He could slot in as a day one starter at LT and upgrade the entire offensive line immediately.

Alternate Pick: Leonard Floyd

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Chicago Bears: Jack Conklin, OT Michigan State

Chicago made a move to upgrade its offensive line this offseason by signing Bobby Massie to play left tackle next to a decent interior of Matt Slauson, Hroniss Grasu, and Kyle Long. However, they still have a huge hole at right tackle, and Conklin may be just the man for the job. He isn’t an elite athlete (although he did run a 5.00 second 40 yard dash at the combine) and there is room for him to improve his technique, but he plays with incredible strength in his hands and upper body and has the mean streak necessary to be a top tackle in the league. His time at MSU demonstrated his strength as a pass-blocker as he gave up just four sacks in 38 career games, but he also has the physical abilities to be a force in the run game as well. He would likely plug in as the starting right tackle immediately, but could potentially supplant Massie (who has primarily been a right tackle during his career) before his three-year contract is up.

Alternate Pick: Shaq Lawson

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New Orleans Saints: Shaq Lawson, DE Clemson

The Saints have one of the best all-around defensive ends in the league in Cameron Jordan, but the depth at the position is razor-thin. Another year of Bobby Richardson starting on the outside is not going to cut it, as he was an adequate run stopper but contributed nothing as a pass rusher. Shaq Lawson isn’t an athletic freak who will bend the corner and speed around tackles for crazy sack totals, but he is a high-effort player who is equally capable defending the run (17 stuffs in 2015) and rushing the passer (12.5 sacks). He has a great feel for playing with both speed and power and has a variety of moves that will allow him to set the edge or hunt down QBs for a Saints team that finished second-to-last in the league in both rush yards and pass yards allowed per game. Jordan is a great player but not a prototypical 4-3 end, and picking up Lawson would go a long way towards helping the team build its new defensive identity under Dennis Allen.

Alternate Pick: Sheldon Rankins

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Miami Dolphins: Mackensie Alexander, CB Clemson

Back-to-back Clemson Tigers are selected as Miami looks to fill its hole at CB opposite the newly acquired Byron Maxwell. The Dolphins’ corners struggled last season, all ranking outside of the top 50 in Pro Football Focus’s ratings, and Maxwell (93rd) needs to completely turn around his play from last year. This may seem a little early for Alexander, who measures in at 5’10” and recorded just eleven pass breakups and zero interceptions during his two years at Clemson. Those numbers don’t do justice to Alexander’s coverage talent – the low volume stats can be attributed to the fact that quarterbacks rarely threw at his receiver. Over the two seasons, he was thrown at 106 times (about 4 times per game) and gave up an amazing 30% completion rate. He also didn’t allow a single touchdown in his career, an amazing statistic in the era of high-flying air raid and spread offenses. He plays with an unshakable confidence in himself and his skills and is not afraid of matching up with anyone. It might take him some time to get his bearings in the NFL when he is tasked with following more precise route runners, but his tenacity and innate coverage instincts will provide him a high long-term floor and if his ball skills catch up to the rest of his abilities, NFL QBs might learn not to pick on him too.

Alternate Pick: Ezekiel Elliott

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Oakland Raiders: Sheldon Rankins, DT Louisville

It sounds weird to say, but Oakland doesn’t really have many glaring holes in their lineup. That puts them in a position to draft Rankins, a high-ceiling player who would complement their existing defensive pieces well. Justin Ellis and Dan Williams are listed at 334 lbs and 315 lbs respectively and are able use that size to eat up blockers, clog rushing lanes, and stop the run. While the Raiders boast an impressive arsenal of edge rushers in Khalil Mack, Aldon Smith, and Bruce Irvin, they do not have a consistent source of interior pressure. Rankins is one of the best interior rushers in the draft and is capable at generating pressure from multiple spots along the line. He played as a 3-4 defensive end at Louisville, but with his combination of speed, power, and hand usage technique he has all the makings of an elite three technique player in a 4-3 front. Plugging him into the starting lineup next to a space-eating nose tackle like Ellis or Williams would give him the ability to shoot a single gap and attack the quarterback while drawing blocker attention away from Mack, Irvin, and the other outside rushers.

Alternate Pick: William Jackson III

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Tennessee Titans: Laquon Treadwell, WR Ole Miss

Titans fans may insist they don’t need a wide receiver, but I don’t buy it. They have some young talent at the position with Kendall Wright and Dorial Green-Beckham, but none of those players are consistent enough threats to justify passing on a top receiver prospect. Green-Beckham led the team’s WRs with 549 receiving yards as Wright, Justin Hunter, and Harry Douglas all struggled with injuries. The addition of Rishard Matthews in free agency is nice, but Marcus Mariota’s development would be strongly aided by an elite jump-ball receiver like Treadwell. He has taken a hit in the draft process lately due to his lack of top-end speed (4.63 second 40 yard dash), but I think his tape is still the best in this draft. Despite questions about his ability to get separation from cornerbacks at the NFL level, he has the strong hands and aggressive nature required to become a deep threat who fights for (and wins) every 50/50 ball against smaller CBs. His playing style has drawn comparisons to the likes of Dez Bryant and DeAndre Hopkins, two receivers who have had immense success in the league despite subpar straight-line speed.

Alternate Pick: Taylor Decker

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Detroit Lions: Leonard Floyd, OLB/DE Georgia

Floyd is a fascinating player to scout. He’s an athletic freak in the mold of Anthony Barr and has had success playing multiple positions (inside and outside linebacker and rushing the QB from a three-point stance) in Georgia’s 3-4 defense. While he has undeniable talent, his unique set of skills – and deficiencies – makes it difficult to project him at the NFL level. He has good speed, but lacks the bulk to play primarily as a defensive end. While he is aggressive when attacking run plays, he has trouble shedding blockers if he can’t beat them with his burst. His height and fluidity are promising for covering tight ends as a strongside linebacker, but he hasn’t shown a ton of experience in that department. Nevertheless, Detroit is in need of quality depth at linebacker and edge rusher and drafting Floyd gives them the opportunity to solve both of those problems. He might not be a day one starter as he packs on some more muscle and generates more bulk, but he has the potential to be a high level starter at SAM or WILL while kicking down to DE in the passing down subpackages that the Lions love to use. If he reaches his ceiling, Floyd will be a coup at #16.

Alternate Pick: Laquon Treadwell

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Atlanta Falcons: Darron Lee, LB Ohio State

The Falcons have the makings of a very good defense if they can add a few final pieces. They have two solid run-stuffing linebackers in Courtney Upshaw and Brooks Reed, but lack the type of athletic, sideline-to-sideline player on the weakside that can elevate a defense to the next level. Darron Lee would be able to slot right in at WILL and use his elite speed (his 4.47 second 40 yard dash was first among LBs at the combine), agility (4.20 second 20 yard shuttle, third among LBs) and leaping ability (11’1″ broad jump, first among LBs) to be a “defensive weapon”who can make plays from anywhere on the field provided the defensive line keeps him clean from blocks. He is somewhat undersized and doesn’t play with much power, which limits his effectiveness when linemen are able to get to the second level and engage him. He has the ability to roam in zone coverage or take on a smaller slot receiver in man and has shown effectiveness as a situational pass rusher with eleven sacks in his two seasons at OSU. Lee has the physical traits to be the perfect linebacker to counter the modern pass-happy NFL, and Dan Quinn’s defensive pedigree will give him plenty of opportunities to develop the facets of his game that are currently lacking, such as tackling.

Alternate Pick: Leonard Floyd

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Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Billings, DT Baylor

While Indianapolis has the offensive personnel to have an elite offense, their title chances will remain dim unless they can add some major pieces to fix a defense that ranked near the bottom of the league. They could begin that process by upgrading at nose tackle with the selection of Billings, who has the athletic ability to be a force against the run and the pass. He is incredibly strong and puts that strength on display every time he engages a lineman, pushing pockets backwards and manhandling run blockers. His biggest flaws are his play awareness, pad level, and limited arsenal of pass rushing moves, but those are all things that can be taught while his physical profile means he has a high floor and can still be an above-average nose tackle while he is learning. He needs to learn not to rely purely on his strength, but if he can get the mental aspects of the game down he has the potential to be one of the most dominant interior linemen in the league.

Alternate Pick: Ryan Kelly

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Buffalo Bills: Noah Spence, DE Eastern Kentucky



Alternate Pick: Corey Coleman This is a great value pick for Buffalo, as Spence may be the best pure edge rusher in the draft but is at risk of falling due to off-field concerns and a less than stellar combine showing. Spence, who was a top five recruit in the nation coming out of high school and had 8.5 sacks and 15 tackles for loss in two seasons at Ohio State, transferred to EKU after failing multiple drug tests and being declared ineligible to play. He dominated the Ohio Valley conference with 11.5 sacks and an amazing 22.5 tackles for loss in just eleven games, and more importantly he avoided any off-field issues. He isn’t going to be an elite speed rusher, but he tested well in all of the combine drills and has a great ability to combine speed, power, and a varied arsenal of pass-rushing moves to get to the quarterback. Buffalo’s defensive line is the strength of its team with Marcel Dareus, Jerry Hughes, and Kyle Williams, but they are going to miss Mario William’s production (average of 10.75 sacks per year with the team) at the second DE spot. Jarius Wynn, Lavar Edwards, Jerel Worthy, and IK Enemkpali are not bad as far as depth goes, but none has ever had more than three sacks in a season and Enemkpali is the only one who has shown a knack for hitting quarterbacks . Spence should see a good amount playing time right away and could be the steal of the draft if he stays out of trouble.

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New York Jets: Paxton Lynch, QB Memphis

The Jets actually have the makings of a competitive team this year, with strengths at wide receiver, running back, defensive line, and secondary, but will be severely held back if they do not do something about their quarterback situation. With negotiations with Ryan Fitzpatrick continuing to look unproductive, Geno Smith and Bryce Petty are the only passers remaining on the roster. Neither of those options set the team up for success, so it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see the team address the position early. Although opinions on Lynch vary wildly within the draft community, this is excellent value if the team feels he has even a chance to become a franchise QB. He has loads of athletic talent in his 6’7″ frame and has the combination of arm talent, mobility, and poise that front offices covet, although he was often able to win on his athleticism alone against weaker AAC competition instead of exhibiting strong fundamentals. He might need to sit behind Geno to start as he needs a lot of improvement in his ability to make reads on multiple receivers and could use a retooling of his throwing mechanics, but the potential is too tantalizing to pass up at the back of the first round.

Alternate Pick: Noah Spence

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Washington Redskins: A’Shawn Robinson, DT Alabama



Alternate Pick: Jarran Reed Despite winning the NFC East in 2015, the Washington football team has some major holes to plug before becoming a true contender. Perhaps the biggest area of need is on the defensive line, as they lost two of their top four players (in terms of snaps played) from the group that surrendered the seventh-most yards per game on the ground last year. They signed Kendall Reyes to take one of the defensive end spots and still have Chris Baker around, but they need an infusion of talent at the nose tackle position and depth at every spot. Robinson has an NFL-ready body ( and beard ) and can make an immediate impact in the trenches. He played pretty much everywhere on the line at Alabama, but made his living anchoring and two-gapping as a zero-technique nose tackle. At 307 lbs, he looks a little small for the position in the NFL but has shown himself to be an immovable object who can eat up blockers at the point of attack. He will be likely be asked to move around the line and one-gap more in Washington than he did in college, but he has the combination of power and athleticism to adapt to those new situations. Like Billings, his physical gifts should make him a serviceable player right off the bat, and if he can improve his pass-rushing abilities he could anchor the line for a very long time.

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Houston Texans: Corey Coleman, WR Baylor

I personally think that Coleman is the third-best receiver in this class behind Treadwell and Josh Doctson, but he is exactly the type of player Houston needs to add to their offense. They already have big, strong jump-ball receivers in DeAndre Hopkins and Jaelen Strong, but they lack a reliable slot option. Coleman, one of the most productive receivers in the nation last year with 18.4 yards per reception and a whopping twenty touchdowns, has elite speed and agility that would complement the existing Texans’ WR corps well. He could be in a position to thrive right away as a deep threat that can take the top off of a defense. He wasn’t asked to run an especially diverse route tree in college and his hands are somewhat suspect compared to other top WR prospects, but being taken by Houston would allow him to focus on improving those areas of his game without being the primary focus of defensive attention.

Alternate Pick: Josh Doctson

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Minnesota Vikings: Josh Doctson, WR TCU

This scenario with Houston taking Coleman works out perfectly for Minnesota, who needs exactly the opposite kind of receiver. Stefon Diggs emerged last season as a great speed receiver for young quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, but the roster doesn’t have a receiver who can consistently win against tight coverage downfield. Doctson’s playing style is highly reminiscent of AJ Green (although he lacks Green’s height and bulk), as he has amazingly strong hands and an uncanny ability to win jump balls even when he is covered well. It’s possible that Doctson will be covered more often than not as he lacks the speed and athleticism to consistently separate from man coverage, but that won’t matter when he is aggressively boxing out defensive backs and ripping the ball out of the air. I see him as an immediate starter on the perimeter over Jarius Wright, and he would add a unique dimension to the Vikings offense. Teddy’s game doesn’t revolve around the deep ball, but defenses would be forced to respect the downfield threats posed by Diggs and Doctson instead of loading up the box to shut down Adrian Peterson.

Alternate Pick: Michael Thomas

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Cincinnati Bengals: Vernon Butler, DT Louisiana Tech

For a team that gave up the second-fewest points per game and scored the seventh-most in the league last year, Cincinnati has quite a few areas of concern. Although they need to replace Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu at receiver, I see the Bengals targeting a defensive piece to reinforce their aging depth chart. Domata Peko has been a consistent presence at nose tackle for the last decade, but he is 31 and the team needs to plan for how to replace him as he declines. Geno Atkins is Cincy’s most dominant defensive player, but he can struggle to produce when the defense is able to key in on him with double teams so it is important to have another defensive tackle that opposing linemen have to respect. Butler, who is virtually the same size as Peko (6’4″ 323 lbs and 6’3″ 325 lbs respectively), has the size and skills to eat blockers and stop the run as a nose tackle and to push the pocket back as an interior pass rusher. His college productivity left a bit to be desired and he needs to improve on fundamentals such as pad level and moves to get off blocks, but NFL coaching and training could mold him into a force next to Atkins.

Alternate Pick: William Jackson III

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Pittsburgh Steelers: William Jackson III, CB Houston

It’s been nineteen years since the Steelers have drafted a cornerback in the first round, but they’re in desperate need of boundary help this year. Despite spending 75% of their snaps in a nickel package with three CBs, they had the NFL’s third-worst pass defense by yards per game. Senquez Golson still has a lot of potential as a top player in the slot, but another year of Ross Cockrell and 31 year old William Gay trying to cover AJ Green and Steve Smith is not going to cut it for Pittsburgh. Jackson doesn’t have the natural coverage instincts of a player like Hargreaves or Alexander, but he is an ideal athletic specimen who ran a 4.37 second 40 yard dash at the combine (tied for the sixth-fastest among CBs in the last five years) and has the physical tools to be the best defensive back in this draft not named Jalen Ramsey. He is the definition of a ballhawk, tallying five interceptions (two returned for touchdowns) and a NCAA-best 23 pass breakups last season. His transition to the pros may be bumpy as he learns to deal with NFL-caliber route runners, but his upside is through the roof and he could be the lockdown outside defender the team has lacked since Ike Taylor’s prime.

Alternate Pick: A’Shawn Robinson

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Seattle Seahawks: Taylor Decker, OT Ohio State

It’s a good thing that Russell Wilson is highly mobile and can make plays outside the pocket, because he’s going to constantly be on the run behind the sieve that the Seahawks call an offensive line. They traded their best player, left tackle Russell Okung, to the Denver Broncos and could use an upgrade at literally any of the five positions up front. Decker is a big, strong, tough tackle who could lock down the right side of the line for years to come. He probably lacks the raw athleticism to handle speed rushers as a pass-protecting left tackle, but could instantly be productive and open holes for Thomas Rawls in the running game. This pick is a little unorthodox for Seattle, who normally values athleticism and tools over production and fundamentals, but Decker is a player who could go much higher than this and is a significantly better prospect in my eyes than the other fringe first round OTs like Jason Spriggs and Germain Ifedi.

Alternate Pick: Jason Spriggs

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Green Bay Packers: Reggie Ragland, ILB Alabama

Green Bay has a very good secondary and a potent pass rush, but they struggled to stop the run at times, giving up over 150 rushing yards to Bears, Rams, Broncos, and Cowboys running backs and surrendering 40+ QB rushing yards to Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Teddy Bridgewater, and Derek Carr. They could use improvements on both the defensive line and in the linebacking corps, especially on the inside. Clay Matthews handled middle linebacker duties well last year, but

Alternate Pick: Jarran Reed

. Green Bay has a very good secondary and a potent pass rush, but they struggled to stop the run at times, giving up over 150 rushing yards to Bears, Rams, Broncos, and Cowboys running backs and surrendering 40+ QB rushing yards to Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Teddy Bridgewater, and Derek Carr. They could use improvements on both the defensive line and in the linebacking corps, especially on the inside. Clay Matthews handled middle linebacker duties well last year, but the team apparently would prefer to move him back to the edge in 2016. Ragland is suited for a very specific role as a two-down run thumper in a 3-4 scheme, but he plays that role better than anyone else in this draft. An extremely physical player, Ragland’s tackling technique and play awareness are top-notch and he isn’t afraid to mix it up with blockers and to get to the ball. He has some ability as a pass rusher and in zone coverage, but lacks the speed and change-of-direction ability to be a consistent factor on third downs. That may scare some teams, but it could allow him to fall right into Ted Thompson’s lap at the end of the first round.Alternate Pick: Jarran Reed

Kansas City Chiefs: Eli Apple, CB Ohio State

KC doesn’t have a huge number of needs this year and can afford to take a risk on a high-reward player, and Apple fits the bill perfectly. The departure of Sean Smith left an opening at cornerback across from Marcus Peters, who looks like a budding star. Philip Gaines may be able to man that spot in the short-term, but he only played 15.5% of defensive snaps last year and doesn’t look like a preferred option in the long run. Even if Gaines ends up playing well, their depth at the position is still lacking. Eli Apple is very similar to Bradley Roby, another recent defensive back prospect out of Ohio State in that he has all the tools you want in a cornerback – big (6’1″), fast (4.40 second 40 yard dash), and aggressive – but has really poor tape. His positioning skills and coverage technique have a really long way to go to become a starting-caliber player in the league, but the Chiefs could have one of the best defensive backfields in the league if he is able to put it all together.

Alternate Pick: Will Fuller

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Arizona Cardinals: Ryan Kelly, C Alabama

The Cardinals have taken great steps to improve their shaky offensive line in the last few seasons with the acquisitions of veterans Jared Veldheer, Mike Iupati, and Evan Mathis, but the center position remains an area of concern. AQ Shipley is currently slated to start at that spot, but he is 29 years old and has never shown much ability to become anything more than a journeyman backup. Kelly, one of the key architects of Derrick Henry’s Heisman-winning season, is the clear-cut top center in this year’s class, which only has about eight players who should be drafted at all. He has a great frame at 6’4″ and 311 lbs and plays a tough, physical game that blends his power with speed and agility that is impressive for a player of his size. He falls this far due to a lack of positional value, but he has the makings of an elite center and is absolutely worth a first round pick.

Alternate Pick: Robert Nkemdiche

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Carolina Panthers: Emmanuel Ogbah, DE Oklahoma State

The Panthers could look to replace Josh Norman in the first round, but the top cornerbacks are already off the board in this situation and Carolina doesn’t often reach for needs. They totaled 44 sacks last year, good for sixth in the league, but no defensive end had more than six. Charles Johnson is 29 and may not have many more years as a premier pass rusher, so it makes sense to begin grooming an eventual replacement. Kony Ealy is developing well, but the team could look to add a pure speed rusher to add a new dimension to their defense. Ogbah certainly fits that bill, running the combine’s second-fasted 40 yard dash (4.63 seconds) and has the ability to convert that speed to power when needed. He may not offer as much of a well-rounded game as Bosa or Lawson, but he could see the field quickly as a situational pass rush specialist while he learns new moves and techniques from Johnson to elevate his overall game.

Alternate Pick: Eli Apple

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