Downing Street is considering a last-ditch attempt to revisit a deal on the free movement of workers before next week’s EU referendum, either by making a unilateral statement of intent or securing an understanding from European leaders that the issue can be examined under the UK presidency next year.

One senior remain campaign source said: “If I said this was not being looked at it, you would not believe me, given where we are in the polls.”

However, No 10 insiders are understood to be concerned that a last-minute pledge would not be credible with voters, and the chances of getting support from European leaders for a new deal are remote, with deep hostility in France and Germany towards unpicking the painfully agreed UK settlement reached in February.

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The preliminary discussions about whether to address migration, the issue that has dominated the referendum debate, may come to nothing, sources said.

There are also divisions within the remain campaign over whether to address voters’ concerns over immigration or to stick rigidly to the current strategy of concentrating on the threat posed by Brexit to jobs, livelihoods and the economy.



Labour leaders, in a sign of desperation on the issue, changed their policy on free movement on Tuesday, 24 hours after the former shadow chancellor Ed Balls said the party needed to support controls on economic migration.



The Labour deputy leader, Tom Watson, backed Balls, saying: “I think we have to reassure people that if they vote remain on Thursday 23 June, that isn’t the end of the reform package for Europe. I think a future Europe will have to look at things like the free movement of labour rules.”

He added: “With freedom of movement, it’s one issue that’s coming up on the doorstep. A future government – whether it be Labour or Conservative – has to hear what voters are telling them and if you look across the continent of Europe, voters are telling political elites the same thing.

“It’s inevitable that whoever wins the next general election will have to make it their negotiating position when it comes to future European reform and David Cameron has the opportunity to do that as prime minister now, if he makes it the priority for Britain’s leadership of the presidency of the EU next year.”

Watson was supported by Yvette Cooper, a former shadow home secretary, who wrote in the Guardian that Britain must build agreement from inside the EU for sensible reforms to free movement.



As part of the changes, she said there needed to be “new kinds of controls and brakes to manage economic migration”.

Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader and a supporter of free movement, will address the issue in a speech later this week, arguing that the UK should use its EU presidency to stop workers being exploited and having their wages undercut.



Some European diplomatic sources acknowledged that details of the UK deal banning EU migrants’ access to benefits had not yet been settled, suggesting some room for flexibility may exist.

They added there was nothing to stop the UK from proposing a review of the consequences of the free movement of labour during its presidency of the EU.

The French government plans to make one more appeal to British voters to stay in the EU, stressing the positive influence the UK has had on the EU, and the importance France attaches to its relationships with the UK. The French are also in a position to back UK opposition to Turkey’s membership of the EU.

However, other European diplomats poured cold water on the idea of reopening discussion about free movement before the referendum.

“The [UK] agreement was hard-fought as it was,” said one EU official. “Many thought the maximum concessions had already been given and too much had been given.”



This was seconded by another EU diplomat, who said last-minute concessions were “totally, fully and entirely ruled out”. The diplomat said: “There was a negotiation last February and it was made very clear that there could be no further negotiations. We are not negotiating over the price of the house, or getting into a bidding war.”

The EU was already “very much in favour of the UK”, the diplomat added, pointing to the UK’s numerous opt-outs and a liberal single market. “You cannot go any further without questioning the whole project.”

One influential senior member of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats dismissed the idea that Cameron could bring the issue of free movement back to the table, saying: “It’s absolutely out of the question that the threat of an exit from the EU is used to blackmail other member states for concessions on individual points.”

Another European official questioned whether a last-minute intervention would have any impact on the electorate in Britain. “Just about every international leader has come out in favour of the UK remaining in the EU and it hasn’t had much effect. This is an internal matter [for the UK].”



A spokeswoman for the European commission said she was not aware of any last-minute offer to the UK being discussed in European capitals. “The commission has negotiated a new settlement for the UK, which takes into account the requirements of Prime Minister Cameron … and the commission stands ready to implement this settlement.”



This leaves the scenario of a single leader or group of leaders making an ad-hoc promise. But analysts cautioned against high expectations. “There could only be some political signalling,” said Daniela Schwarzer, director of the Europe programme at the German Marshall Fund.

“Some of the larger member states could say they understand the British concerns – maybe a group or individual heads of state and government would acknowledge that the issues that move the British public might be tackled – but I don’t see anything more than that.”

She would be surprised if Merkel made a last-minute concession that would allow the British to restrict free movement of people. The German chancellor was balancing her concerns about Brexit with a wish to keep the integrity of EU rules intact. “Always when it comes to making concessions to the UK, there is the question, who else would want this?”



She said Germany’s political class had a very strong attachment to free movement of people, both as a cornerstone of an efficient single market and a political ideal. “There is also the political idea that you don’t want to unravel the soft people-to-people parts of integration.”