Establishment Republicans are reckoning with something they thought would never happen: That it might soon be too late to stop Donald Trump.

With the controversial businessman the clear front-runner heading into Nevada and next week’s Super Tuesday contests, there’s an emerging consensus that the odds of dislodging him are growing longer by the day. Whispered fears that Trump could become the Republican nominee have given way to a din of resigned conventional wisdom – with top party officials and strategists openly wondering what the path to defeating him will be.


“If anyone else in this field had gone second-first-first in the first three contests, we would all be saying that it’s over,” said Mike DuHaime, a former Republican National Committee political director who guided Chris Christie’s presidential bid.

“I think it’s uphill, and Washington underestimates how uphill it is – and that’s because they’ve persistently underestimated Trump,” said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who sought the Republican nomination in 2012. If he wins Nevada, Gingrich added, “What is it that’s supposed to stop him?”

The biggest hurdle confronting the mogul’s four rivals is that they continue to divide support among themselves. In each of the three contests that have been held so for, the anti-Trump field has fractured, making it impossible for any single contender to surpass him. A similar dynamic could play out again in Nevada, with Trump failing to win a majority of support but still earning more than his opponents.

While the field has winnowed somewhat in recent days, the compressed nature of this year’s Republican primary calendar means there is precious little time for the anti-Trump field to consolidate. Should Trump notch his third consecutive win on Tuesday, some foresee him steamrolling through Super Tuesday a week later, when a quarter of the party’s delegates are awarded. A batch of newly released polls show him with sizable leads in several of those states, including Massachusetts and Georgia.

“Either Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio would have a shot at the nomination, but I don’t see how they can stop Donald Trump while both of them are splitting votes,” said Al Cardenas, a former Florida Republican Party and American Conservative Union chairman who had supported Jeb Bush. “I don’t see either senator, both of whom have strong-willed backers, dropping out any time soon. Maybe after March 15, but will that be too late to stop Trump?”

Trump still faces challenges, however. One prospect is that Republican groups launch a concerted offensive to take him down – something GOP elites have been discussing for months but haven’t yet acted on. Following Bush’s exit, some top donors to Right to Rise, the super PAC that had been supporting him, have been in discussions about turning the group into an anti-Trump vehicle, according to a source close to the group. A Right to Rise spokesman, Paul Lindsay, said no determination had yet been made on how the group would use its remaining funds, and the group's top strategist, Mike Murphy, denied any plans to use the money against Trump. Right to Rise entered the year with nearly $60 million on hand.

Another, perhaps far greater danger is that Rubio, who is emerging as the clear favorite of party leaders, coalesces the support of the Republican establishment and takes the baton as the anti-Trump alternative. Following Jeb Bush’s withdrawal from the race, Rubio has quickly moved to win over the former Florida governor’s backers, including top lawmakers and donors. One, Dirk Van Dongen, the president of the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors and a longtime Bush family contributor, said in an email late Monday that he was joining the Rubio campaign.

Rubio is pushing to lock down others. According to three sources familiar with Rubio’s schedule, the Florida senator is preparing to embark on a March fundraising tour of Florida that will take him throughout the state. On March 11, Rubio plans to meet with some of the state’s biggest Republican bundlers in a bid to vacuum up fundraising dollars that helped to powered Bush’s bid.

While Bush himself hasn’t yet settled on endorsing Rubio, those close to the former governor – whose relationship with the senator had grown tense in his campaign’s final weeks – expect him to get there. If he does endorse, Rubio would be expected to land the support of still-uncommitted Bush family loyalists like Jack Oliver, a veteran Republican Party fundraiser.

To some in the GOP leadership, Bush’s exit from the contest has reignited hopes that a fractured party establishment will eventually unite. Still, eating into Rubio’s vote share is John Kasich, a moderate Ohio governor who is charting a course through the Midwest – if he survives long enough to contest primaries like Michigan’s, to be held on March 8.

One senior party operative on Monday evening described “building irritation” with Kasich among GOP elders for staying in the race when has such a narrow path to the nomination – but said there was no consensus on the best way to force him out.

“Too many people don’t find Trump presidential and he reinforces that regularly. Now, our problem is we need to get the race down to two to three candidates to capitalize on it,” said Henry Barbour, a Republican National Committeeman from Mississippi who has been an outspoken voice in calling for his party to unite behind a single anti-Trump contender. “But there’s ample time.”

To dislodge Trump, though, Rubio must first defeat another rival: Cruz. People briefed on Rubio’s game plan say he’s planning to launch an all-out assault on the Texas senator, labeling him as a dishonest figure while appealing to evangelicals, a group that Cruz had been counting on – a strategy Rubio used with success in South Carolina. “Watch Rubio go nuclear on Cruz,” one source briefed on the plans said.

If Rubio is able to go after Cruz effectively, many in the party hierarchy envision the makings of a one-on-one race. They are hopeful that Cruz will find himself stretched by fighting a two-front war against Trump and Rubio, both of whom have targeted the Texas senator in recent days and who are likely to do so in Thursday’s GOP debate.

“Cruz now strikes me as the candidate in the most vulnerable position, because his outsider message is being drowned out by Trump and his core constituency – evangelicals – don’t seem any more drawn to him than they are to Trump or Rubio,” said Steven Law, the president and CEO of American Crossroads, a prominent Republican group founded by Karl Rove.

But if Cruz is vulnerable, so too is Rubio, who has yet to win a state and can point to few upcoming contests where he is the favorite. Cruz has campaigned aggressively across the South, which figures heavily in the delegate math and on Super Tuesday and March 15 in particular.

However the race unfolds, many are beginning to wonder if the Republican establishment has already been defeated at its own game. For all its planning and plotting, nothing has been able to halt Trump’s rise.

“It’s unlike any year that I can remember,” Gingrich said. “Maybe he knows something Washington doesn’t.”