(CNN) Democrats have been winning elections in places they aren't supposed to since Donald Trump became President.

Any one race can be an outlier, but this Kentucky race -- along with the more than 90 special elections that have been held since Trump became President -- tell a clear story: Democrats are outperforming their baselines by a significant enough margin in special elections so far as to be favored to take back the House in November.

Special elections are far from perfect in predicting future results, however, so we need to be humble about this projection.

Democrats are doing about 13 percentage points better in 92 state and federal special elections held since January 2018 than the presidential baseline (based off the prior two presidential election results with 2016 weighted more heavily) would indicate they would do in a neutral political environment. All told, they're doing better than their baseline in 74% of the special state and federal elections so far this cycle.

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