One of the most unusual and important Speaker races in history will begin Wednesday, when Democrats decide behind closed doors whether Rep. Nancy Pelosi Nancy PelosiPelosi slams Trump executive order on pre-existing conditions: It 'isn't worth the paper it's signed on' On The Money: Anxious Democrats push for vote on COVID-19 aid | Pelosi, Mnuchin ready to restart talks | Weekly jobless claims increase | Senate treads close to shutdown deadline Trump signs largely symbolic pre-existing conditions order amid lawsuit MORE (Calif.) will be their next leader.

The result of Wednesday’s vote is completely predictable: Pelosi is going to win. But the process surrounding the contest and the political machinations between Wednesday and a Jan. 3 public floor vote for the Speakership are filled with intrigue and uncertainty.

ADVERTISEMENT

“We won’t be surprised when she wins tomorrow,” a Democratic aide associated with Pelosi’s detractors said Tuesday. “But that doesn’t change the fact that there are still more people than she can afford to lose who are not going to vote for her on the floor.”

Pelosi, after ushering Democrats to the majority for the first time in a decade, is facing the toughest threat to her 15-year reign atop the party.

Her supporters and opponents know that in running unchallenged, she’ll win Wednesday’s majority vote for her party’s nomination for the Speaker’s gavel. Victories are also assured for her top lieutenants, Reps. Steny Hoyer Steny Hamilton HoyerOn The Money: Anxious Democrats push for vote on COVID-19 aid | Pelosi, Mnuchin ready to restart talks | Weekly jobless claims increase | Senate treads close to shutdown deadline Vulnerable Democrats tell Pelosi COVID-19 compromise 'essential' Anxious Democrats amp up pressure for vote on COVID-19 aid MORE (D-Md.) and James Clyburn (D-S.C.), who are also running uncontested.

Whether Pelosi can win the 218 votes necessary to be elected Speaker on Jan. 3, when the full House will vote, is another question entirely.

Pelosi’s last challenge as party leader came in 2016, when Rep. Tim Ryan Timothy (Tim) RyanNow's the time to make 'Social Emotional Learning' a national priority Mourners gather outside Supreme Court after passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg Lincoln Project hits Trump for criticizing Goodyear, 'an American company' MORE (D-Ohio) won 63 votes in his failed bid to topple her. Published reports have stated that Pelosi’s opponents were hoping to reach that figure again on Wednesday, even as they lack a candidate to run against her.

Multiple sources among Pelosi’s opponents, however, insisted Tuesday that they never expected to approach 63 votes on Wednesday.

“That’s not accurate,” a second Democratic aide affiliated with the Pelosi critics said. “I don’t know where that 63 number came from, but that is not the group’s expectations.”

“That is not the goal,” echoed the first aide. “We are looking to see if she gets less than 218. If she loses 18 or more votes, that will show that she doesn’t have the support needed on the floor.”

Pelosi’s allies, for their part, are already suggesting the insurgents are setting a low bar in order to manage expectations ahead of the ballot.

“The initial bar should be whether opposition to her is more than it was when Ryan ran [in 2016],” said Rep. Ro Khanna Rohit (Ro) KhannaThe Hill Interview: Jerry Brown on climate disasters, COVID-19 and Biden's 'Rooseveltian moment' Congress needs to prioritize government digital service delivery DeJoy defends Postal Service changes at combative House hearing MORE (D-Calif.).

When a candidate runs unopposed, Democrats typically would move to elect that person by unanimous consent or a voice vote.

But given the public resistance to Pelosi, her opponents will get an opportunity to register their dissent during the Wednesday vote.

Democratic sources said any lawmaker in the room may object to a motion to consider Pelosi’s nomination as Speaker by unanimous consent. They could then request a traditional, secret-paper ballot.

That would give Pelosi critics — including Reps.-elect Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) and Gil Cisneros (D-Calif.), who each flipped GOP-held swing seats this month — a chance to register a protest vote against Pelosi by writing in the name of someone else.

Pelosi met with incoming freshman members Tuesday afternoon in the Capitol, said a Democratic source.

“You all have idealism, integrity, and imagination to make the future better for our country. You come as a size, in diversity, in strength, in experience and brilliance, and integrity that will make a transformative new path on this Congress and therefore in this country. ...” Pelosi told the freshmen, according to a source in the room.

“And we want to remove all doubt to how we go forward in a way that puts our best foot forward on Day 1, in order to show that we can govern. That we that we can govern in a way that is transparent and hopeful and fair. In a way that is bipartisan, frankly," Pelosi added. "Striving for bipartisanship as much as we can and doing so in a way that unifies our country, and not divides.”

Even if there is a vote by ballot, it is unclear whether the vote totals on Wednesday will be released.

Democratic leadership aides said Tuesday there was nothing they could do to prevent lawmakers from writing in the name of an alternate candidate and blasting out a press release trumpeting that they had upheld their campaign promise and opposed Pelosi.

But these aides said they were uncertain whether those write-in votes would be thrown out or officially tallied and made public, saying this is a unique situation.

As Pelosi has won praise from former President Obama and added to her string of endorsements, there’s been speculation that opponents might choose to vote against her on Wednesday but then back her in the public January vote.

A Pelosi dissident, however, scoffed at the idea he would flip.

“I’m very consistent on that. … I love this town. I love this town. You guys are unbelievable,” an incredulous Rep.-elect Max Rose (D-N.Y.), one of at least 10 freshmen who have pledged to oppose Pelosi, told reporters as he emerged from a candidates forum on Tuesday.

The precise number of Pelosi opponents remains unclear, and it has fluctuated in recent weeks.

The insurgent group had drafted a letter earlier this month which collected 17 signatures, before losing Reps. Marcia Fudge Marcia Louise FudgeThis week: House returns for pre-election sprint House to tackle funding, marijuana in September Honoring John Lewis's voting rights legacy MORE (D-Ohio) and Brian Higgins Brian HigginsBiden slams Trump for promoting conspiracy theory about man shoved by police Trump claims 75-year-old man shoved by Buffalo police could be part of 'set up' NY, NJ lawmakers call for more aid to help fight coronavirus MORE (D-N.Y.), who are now backing Pelosi. The detractors got a bump on Monday, however, when Cisneros endorsed the letter, bring the number of signatories back up to 16.

Other lawmakers not on the letter are also vowing to oppose Pelosi.

Rep.-elect Jared Golden (D-Maine) said Tuesday that he won’t be voting for Pelosi on Wednesday. Asked if that means he is going to write a different name down, Golden said: “I’m sure I will, but I don’t know who right now.”

Despite Pelosi’s math problem, her allies remain confident she can pull out a victory when the floor vote rolls around at the start of next year.

“She’ll beat the nonexistent candidate. She’ll get their overwhelming support of the House Democratic Caucus this week. We’ll send her name to the floor on Jan. 3, and come Jan. 3 she’ll have the votes to be Speaker,” Rep. Ted Lieu Ted W. LieuThe spin on Woodward's tapes reveals the hypocrisy of Democrats Larry Kudlow defends response to coronavirus: Trump 'led wisely' Lieu on Trump 'playing it down' on coronavirus: 'This is reckless homicide' MORE, a fellow California Democrat, told The Hill.

To do so, however, will take plenty of cajoling between now and then. And lawmakers on both sides of the intraparty brawl suggested it’s a debate unlike one they’ve ever seen.

“There are a lot of soulful, heart-to-heart conversations taking place among old friends in the Democratic caucus right now,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin Jamin (Jamie) Ben RaskinOVERNIGHT ENERGY: House passes sweeping clean energy bill | Pebble Mine CEO resigns over secretly recorded comments about government officials | Corporations roll out climate goals amid growing pressure to deliver On The Money: House panel pulls Powell into partisan battles | New York considers hiking taxes on the rich | Treasury: Trump's payroll tax deferral won't hurt Social Security House panel pulls Powell into partisan battles over pandemic MORE (D-Md.). “There is a soulful and solemn aspect to what’s about to happen. That’s the mood I’m picking up on.”