Retail stores may take a big hit: 100,000 locations could close by 2025 – a trend accelerated by the COVID-19 outbreak – if more Americans opt for online shopping.

Analysts at Wall Street firm UBS said in a research note this week that the pandemic could alter behaviors, leading more shoppers to continue buying online. Shoppers who do go to stores may not linger, they said.

“Even when stores do open, it may take a while before people will regain their confidence about being safe in crowded places,” UBS analysts Michael Lasser and Jay Sole said in a note to clients.

Clothing, electronics and home furnishings stores would be affected the most if online shopping increased to 25% of retail sales up from its current 15%, according to the investment banking firm. Enclosed malls would be under pressure as stores closed. Based on the number of malls in 2019 and population growth estimates, about 100 malls would close, some of which would probably be redeveloped for other purposes, the analysts said.

Smaller retailers would be hurt the most while large chains such as Walmart, Target and Costco might benefit from the shuttering of underperforming retail stores, UBS said. Dollar stores and home improvement retailers such as Home Depot and Lowe's should also be beneficiaries.

The expected store closures would continue trends among the industry and consumers for years: The average household spent more than $5,800 shopping online in 2019, an 11% year-over-year increase. Online retailers have ramped up order fulfillment capabilities. Amazon, for instance, had about 190 million square feet of fulfillment space in 2019 versus 12 million in 2009, and online home furnishings seller Wayfair's fulfillment space grew to 15.5 million square feet in 2019 from 795,000 in 2014- 2015, according to UBS.

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A wide range of retail stores remain closed amid the pandemic, and some companies furloughed or laid off workers. Stores such as Forever 21 and J.C. Penney were already struggling, and Papyrus, Modell’s Sporting Goods and Art Van Furniture announced plans to liquidate.

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