Prime minister John Key’s call for change was never a step towards a break from the UK. So it is still unclear why the NZ$27m referendum happened at all

Ten months, 10,000 designs, no new flag for New Zealand. What was that about?

How many New Zealanders does it take to change a flag?

It’s the 27-million-dollar question to which, after 10 months, 10,300 designs and two public referendums, we still don’t know the answer – because after all that, the vote was to stick with the same old flag.

That this would be the outcome had been signalled as early as three months into the process. When the longlist of 40 designs was released in August, there was talk of “flag fatigue”, brought on by the lack of enthusiasm for the issue and compounded by the interminable discussion of it.

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Outside the remote island nation, there is a sense that it has wasted an opportunity. From within, it felt from the beginning like a conversation that no one bar the prime minister John Key wanted to have. And even his popularity with the public failed to get his preferred design over the line.

“Key opponents love to say that he does nothing unless the polls tell him to, but that’s clearly not always true,” says Simon Wilson, editor-at-large of Auckland’s Metro magazine. “He’s campaigned actively for the new flag, despite there apparently being no votes in it.”

Calls for New Zealand to establish its own national identity by casting off the Union flag have been made every decade or so since the 1970s, but gained little traction. The issue of a brand new flag seemed to come out of nowhere when it reemerged in January 2014, when Key floated the idea of a referendum in that year’s general election.

Though it was met with a mixed response, Key made it clear that, should he be elected to a third term, the flag change debate would be a priority.

His enthusiasm for the issue not only set up his detractors to oppose it simply on principle, but also seemed at odds with his public persona of “relaxed everyman”. That unflappable, Teflon-esque quality is both a reason for his popularity and a reflection of it. In the lead-up to the 2014 election, Key weathered a high-profile exposé of National’s attack politics by claiming he hadn’t read the book. The dog didn’t eat his homework – he just didn’t do it.

In September of that year, he was re-elected with an outright majority. Details of the flag referendum were announced soon after.

It was never tied to a question of New Zealand becoming a republic, or even of relaxing its ties with the United Kingdom, both of which the self-described monarchist Key is against.

His principal argument was the “sheer confusion” over the similarity between Australia and New Zealand’s flags. “Around the world, people get terribly confused,” he said in an official video calling for change. “You can see pictures of me in the newspaper … [where] they’ve got me in front of an Australian flag.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest This is actually an Australian flag, with John Key. Photograph: David Williams/AAP

Australia’s then prime minister Tony Abbott had the same problem, Key added: “There’s lots of stories about that.”



Key’s enthusiastic campaigning for a new flag for no more compelling or timely reason than he was sometimes asked to stand before an Australian one struck some as a preoccupation with legacy-building. With his stated preference for a silver fern, it was seen as no surprise when it featured on three of the four shortlisted designs.

In late February, two-thirds of those surveyed by research firm UMR – and 47% of Key’s National party voters – agreed that the referendum had been “a distraction and a waste of money”, and that “New Zealanders should send John Key a message by voting for the current flag”.

The preliminary result announced on Thursday showed that 1.2 million people – more than 56% of those who voted – did just that.

Key admitted to being a “bit disappointed”, but rejected suggestions that the process had been a waste of time and money, insisting it had sparked a valuable conversation about what New Zealand “stood for”.

But the majority of voters wanted to keep the current flag, and that would have to be honoured, he said.

“My only request to New Zealanders now would be to rally behind the flag that’s been chosen … to go out and use it, to wave it, to be proud of it, and to celebrate the fact that we’ve got an amazing country.”

Plus, he said repeatedly, the result “was much closer than everyone predicted”. The official result is expected to show round about a million votes for Lockwood’s alternative design when it is confirmed next week.

More than just a failed reform in a temperamentally conservative country, political commentator Morgan Godfery said the result reflected insecurity over New Zealand’s place in the world.

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With home ownership out of reach for many in the main centres, dairy prices plummeting, and increasing migration transforming New Zealand “from a cosy little British outpost to an energetic member of the Asia Pacific region”, key cultural touchstones are under threat or increasingly irrelevant, he said.

“When confronted with such tremendous changes, is it any wonder an overwhelming majority of New Zealanders are discovering new affection for a fixed symbol of national certainty, the union jack?”

The referendum result does not necessarily reflect enduring ties to Britain or even fear of change. It does show that 67.3% of New Zealanders who were able to vote did so, and almost 57% of them preferred the current design to Lockwood’s.

Incredibly, it is still not known how much support there is for a change of flag after an extensive and expensive process exploring exactly that question. It was not asked in the first referendum, which polled New Zealanders for their favoured design from the shortlist, nor the second, which was a straight choice between the current flag and the fern.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The four shortlisted alternative flags: quite fern-heavy. Photograph: www.govt.nz

From a one-tick postal vote, it is not possible to know how many people eventually voted for the current flag – or abstained from voting at all – simply because they didn’t like the proposed alternative.



Key repeated throughout those 10 months that this was New Zealand’s one chance at a new flag. It is hard to say whether that is true. Re-examining ties to the Commonwealth (which was never part of the flag change debate) could result in the removal of the union flag element. For now, at least, it is off the table.

“Absent some major change – like becoming a republic, or joining Australia – New Zealanders won’t be asked about the flag again for at least 15 years, and probably significantly longer,” said Graeme Edgeler, an electoral law expert and blogger. “My advice for those who want a change is to decide on an alternative they like, and start flying it now.”

The most immediate question is whether the expense and extent of Key’s campaign to change the flag will affect his popularity. But commentators predict that the whole sorry saga will slide right off him, just as the reports of National’s “dirty politics” did.

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Edgeler points out that this is the third time a position publicly held by Key has been defeated by public opinion at a referendum: the first was on a law that criminalised smacking children; the second, his government’s asset sales program. “Although the prime minister is more personally connected to this issue than those, I can see no reason why most voters would see this as a vote about Key, or National, rather than a vote about the flag.”

Godfery also doubts that it will damage Key’s personal popularity. “But it’s an embarrassing defeat and undermines his credentials as a campaigner, the bloke who could convince you to sell both kidneys over a pint – yeah, that guy doesn’t exist any more.”

David Farrar, a pollster close to Key who has worked for the National party, predicts that the result will do little to dent the prime minister’s popularity. The referendum has had a polarising impact, increasing levels “of hatred or derangement about him from the left”, but not necessarily swinging votes, he says.

“Likewise, unhappiness over the cost has been an issue for quite a few, but that’s been known for over a year and has not impacted the polls significantly,” he said. “While it’s never great to be on the losing side of any vote, the impact of the referendum has already occurred.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Alternative – rejected – suggestions for the new flag, designed as part of a competition run by the New Zealand government. Photograph: www.govt.nz

Support for National averaged 48% last month in the public polls, just one percentage point down on February last year; one poll shows that 61% believe the country is heading in the right direction.

“Nothing means anything to Key,” said Steve Braunias, a journalist and commentator who wrote a book, Madmen: Inside the Weirdest Campaign Ever, on the 2014 election. “He will – as they say, and as he says all the time – move on.”

Key does look set to move on from the entire episode as though it never happened. By all appearances – every flagpole, uniform, driver’s licence – it didn’t.