Analysis: Support for League party led by Italy’s hardline interior minister has risen from from 17% in March to about 30%

The popularity of Italy’s hardline interior minister, Matteo Salvini, is growing as he taps into the emotions of a nation in despair and seizes on them as if he was still on the campaign trail.

Nowhere was this more evident than at the state funeral on Saturday for 19 of the 43 people killed in Genoa’s Morandi bridge collapse last Tuesday. Cheers and hugs greeted Salvini, also deputy prime minister and leader of the far-right League, and his coalition partner, Luigi Di Maio, the leader of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), as they arrived at the ceremony.

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In contrast, deep disdain for Italy’s previous government was reflected in the insults hurled at members of the centre-left Democratic party.

In what some describe as a watershed moment, many Italians are not only counting on a robust and swift response to the tragedy from their new leaders but are also depending on them to resolve chronic problems, from high unemployment to corruption, that have weighed the country down for decades.

More pertinently, some are looking to Salvini, a man admired among supporters for his consistency as much as he is despised by critics for his anti-immigration rhetoric, as their saviour.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Salvini leaves after the state funeral for victims of the Genoa bridge disaster. Photograph: Simone Arveda/EPA

The 45-year-old has been riding the crest of a wave since general elections on 4 March, now commanding strong support in both the League’s traditional northern territories and the poorer south. The party’s backing has almost doubled from 17% in early March to about 30%, according to the most recent opinion polls. Just over two-thirds of its new supporters are those who abstained in the general election, while the rest were previously voted for the Democratic party, M5S or Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia.

His hardline approach to immigration, which has involved Salvini denying docking rights to several migrant rescue ships since June, is a key factor in his party’s growing support.

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“A significant number of abstainers now sympathise with Salvini,” said Antonio Noto, the head of polling firm, IPR. “He is also building consensus in the south, with former M5S voters now supporting the League.”

“People see him as a ‘strong man’ – immigration was an important theme during the election campaign and it continues to be,” he added.

A poll earlier this month found that 60% of Italians were confident in the coalition government. As investigations into the cause of the Morandi bridge collapse continue, even those wary of politicians feel they have little choice but to have faith in their leadership.

A cordial note towards Salvini was also struck by Andrea Bocelli after the minister was among guests at the famous tenor’s holiday home in Forte dei Marmi, Tuscany, on Saturday night. “I have never done politics in my life, but let’s give them time,” Bocelli told local reporters afterwards. “By nature, I am inclined to have faith … if the game gets played badly, then it’s bad, but if it’s played well, then I will reiterate my confidence.”

The unusual encounter, which came hours after the Genoa funeral, was arranged by Susanna Ceccardi, the mayor of the nearby Cascina, which in 2016 was the first town in Tuscany to fall to the League after 70 years of leftwing leadership. Pisa, Siena and Massa followed suit in local elections in June this year.

“The change was mainly due to the fact that the left never went to the poorer areas or defended the people there,” Ceccardi said of the League’s gains in Tuscany.

Davide Cinini was a supporter of the Democratic party in Pisa before joining the League in 2015. “So many people, especially since March, support Salvini,” he said. “The left no longer responds to the needs of people. Salvini is like one of us, he doesn’t hide … he comes to see us, speaks to us, takes photos with us.”

In July, Salvini said during a television debate that he didn’t like to “spend time in the office”, preferring to “go to the squares” to speak to people directly and “tell the truth” that journalists don’t. A master communicator, his social media accounts often features selfies taken across Italy with supporters – on the street, at a beach, or in a bar.

A source at the interior ministry claimed voters were responding to Salvini pursuing his strategy “with force and courage”.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Matteo Salvini and his supporters during his election rally at the Mostra D’Oltremare in Naples. Photograph: Kontrolab/LightRocket via Getty Images

But as the summer subsides, looming economic challenges, such as the presentation of its fiscal targets in late September, are likely to dictate whether his popularity will be sustained. The government has threatened to flout EU deficit rules in order to fulfil pledges of tax cuts, a guaranteed income for the poor and scrapping a planned increase in VAT.

“The Genoa effect will likely be short-term … support will probably fall after the [2019] budget law,” Noto said.

Meanwhile, as the number of migrants arriving by sea slows, as is normal in the autumn and winter, Savini’s credibility as interior minister is likely to be put to the test.

“The role is serious and needs to be carried out with care, not raising fears,” said Enzo Bianco, an interior minister between 1999 and 2001 and mayor of Catania until June.

“Right now, he is not at the ministry being an interior minister, he is doing politics, which for him is a strategy that works – he gathers consensus by exploiting fear and rancour, which are the most evident emotions today. It is very much populist politics. You need to decide – do you keep responding to these emotions, or guarantee security?”