The GOP nominee likely won a reprieve by exceeding low expectations at Sunday's debate. He may have stopped, at least for now, the stampede of Republicans who were fleeing from his campaign after a video emerged Friday of him discussing women in vulgar and sexually aggressive terms.

But one truth is emerging from the wreckage of one of the most intense 72 hours in modern American politics: Trump has virtually no path right now to the 270 electoral votes he will need to capture the presidency in 28 days.

Trump intensified his scorched earth strategy Tuesday with a tweetstorm in which he blasted Speaker Paul Ryan and John McCain and declared the " shackles have been taken off me and I can now fight for America the way I want to."

Trump's puzzling tactic of merely trying to energize his base supporters without demonstrating a broader strategy to win over more moderate voters, is pushing top Republicans into an even more precarious position. Because the debate wasn't a total flop, Trump made it harder for them to completely break with his floundering campaign at a time when his drag on the ticket could cost them control of the US Senate, and possibly even the House.

"He basically reminded Republicans of the reasons why he's their nominee -- on Obamacare, judges, and the attacks on Hillary Clinton," said Lanhee Chen, a Republican strategist and CNN commentator who is also a fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. "Those are all things that made Republicans very comfortable. It makes it harder for officeholders and candidates to leave him."

Conundrum for Republicans

The conundrum for Republicans came into greater focus Monday. A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll taken after Trump's tape surfaced found Hillary Clinton surging to an 11-point lead among likely voters in a four-way race for the White House. And without formally revoking his endorsement of Trump, House Speaker Paul Ryan cut the nominee loose and said he would no longer defend him, instead devoting his energy to securing the congressional majorities.

But Trump's running mate, Mike Pence, and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus stood by the nominee Monday despite the bleak prospects.

Pence congratulated Trump on the debate and said he never considered leaving the ticket -- even as dozens of Republicans called on the nominee to step aside over the weekend.

"I'll always keep my conversations with Donald Trump and my family private," Pence told CNN's Alisyn Camerota on "New Day." "But it's absolutely false to suggest that at any point in time we considered dropping off this ticket."

Running with Trump, Pence said, "is the greatest honor of my life."

Preibus, meanwhile, put to rest talk that the RNC was ready to cut Trump off to devote resources exclusively to congressional races.

"Nothing has changed in regard with our relationship," Priebus said in a call with RNC committee members, according to sources on the call. "We are in full coordination with the Trump campaign. We have a great relationship with them. And we are going to continue to work together to make sure he wins in November."

For her part, Clinton and her allies are steadily becoming more bullish. The campaign is eyeing whether to spend money in additional states.

"There is always a chance," Clinton communications director Jennifer Palmieri told reporters Monday. "It's the kind of thing that we are day-to-day on and we have to see how these states are looking and if that is a smart thing to do."

Priorities USA, the leading super PAC supporting Clinton, is preparing to expand beyond the presidential race and potentially run television ads focused on a handful of competitive Senate races, CNN's Dana Bash reported Monday. Until now, Priorities USA has spent the 2016 election cycle entirely focused on getting Clinton elected. The fact that they may use their resources to also promote Democratic candidates in down-ballot races suggests how increasingly confident they are in a Clinton victory.

Still, there are signs of caution in Clinton's world. Trump's decision to hold a pre-debate press conference with women who have accused Bill Clinton of sexual impropriety in the past shocked many of Hillary Clinton's aides. They said the move didn't intimidate Clinton, but there is an acknowledgment inside Clinton's campaign that if the wheels completely come off Trump's operation, the attacks could grow even more personal.

"This was supposed to be his big moment," Palmieri told reporters. "His threat, he followed through and it had no effect, so I don't know what he is going to do as an encore."

Frustration among establishment Republicans

The St. Louis debate underscored the long-running frustration among establishment Republicans that Trump has made no real effort to moderate his tone in a fashion that would reassure and win over independents and swing voters in the blue states that he must flip to win the White House.

The bar for Trump was undeniably low Sunday night. But unlike the first debate, he did successfully launch attacks on Hillary Clinton's record.

Still, they were attacks designed to rev up the conservative base: criticizing her handling of the Benghazi attack, excoriating her judgment in using a private email server, and attempting to shift the spotlight on to past troubles within her marriage.

He thrilled his supporters by asserting that if he were President, he'd appoint a special prosecutor to look into her "situation," and throw her in jail -- immediately drawing Twitter comparisons to a dictator of a banana republic.

Kellyanne Conway, Trump's campaign manager, hailed the debate as a victory and insisted the Trump campaign would welcome back any Republican who had rescinded his or her endorsement.

"We hope what they saw on display last night was somebody willing to take the case to Hillary Clinton," Conway said on "CBS This Morning." "If those members can live with giving the next three or four Supreme Court justices over to Hillary Clinton, they should think about that."

Winning back women

Speculation before the debate had centered on how Trump might try to win back women offended by his assertion on the 2005 tape that his fame gave him license to grope and kiss women he had just met.

Photos: Donald Trump's rise Photos: Donald Trump's rise President-elect Donald Trump has been in the spotlight for years. From developing real estate and producing and starring in TV shows, he became a celebrity long before winning the White House. Hide Caption 1 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump at age 4. He was born in 1946 to Fred and Mary Trump in New York City. His father was a real estate developer. Hide Caption 2 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump, left, in a family photo. He was the second-youngest of five children. Hide Caption 3 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump, center, stands at attention during his senior year at the New York Military Academy in 1964. Hide Caption 4 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump, center, wears a baseball uniform at the New York Military Academy in 1964. After he graduated from the boarding school, he went to college. He started at Fordham University before transferring and later graduating from the Wharton School, the University of Pennsylvania's business school. Hide Caption 5 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump stands with Alfred Eisenpreis, New York's economic development administrator, in 1976 while they look at a sketch of a new 1,400-room renovation project of the Commodore Hotel. After graduating college in 1968, Trump worked with his father on developments in Queens and Brooklyn before purchasing or building multiple properties in New York and Atlantic City, New Jersey. Those properties included Trump Tower in New York and Trump Plaza and multiple casinos in Atlantic City. Hide Caption 6 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump attends an event to mark the start of construction of the New York Convention Center in 1979. Hide Caption 7 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump wears a hard hat at the Trump Tower construction site in New York in 1980. Hide Caption 8 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump was married to Ivana Zelnicek Trump from 1977 to 1990, when they divorced. They had three children together: Donald Jr., Ivanka and Eric. Hide Caption 9 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise The Trump family, circa 1986. Hide Caption 10 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump uses his personal helicopter to get around New York in 1987. Hide Caption 11 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump stands in the atrium of the Trump Tower. Hide Caption 12 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump attends the opening of his new Atlantic City casino, the Taj Mahal, in 1989. Hide Caption 13 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump signs his second book, "Trump: Surviving at the Top," in 1990. Trump has published at least 16 other books, including "The Art of the Deal" and "The America We Deserve." Hide Caption 14 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump and singer Michael Jackson pose for a photo before traveling to visit Ryan White, a young child with AIDS, in 1990. Hide Caption 15 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump dips his second wife, Marla Maples, after the couple married in a private ceremony in New York in December 1993. The couple divorced in 1999 and had one daughter together, Tiffany. Hide Caption 16 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump putts a golf ball in his New York office in 1998. Hide Caption 17 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise An advertisement for the television show "The Apprentice" hangs at Trump Tower in 2004. The show launched in January of that year. In January 2008, the show returned as "Celebrity Apprentice." Hide Caption 18 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise A 12-inch talking Trump doll is on display at a toy store in New York in September 2004. Hide Caption 19 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump attends a news conference in 2005 that announced the establishment of Trump University. From 2005 until it closed in 2010, Trump University had about 10,000 people sign up for a program that promised success in real estate. Three separate lawsuits -- two class-action suits filed in California and one filed by New York's attorney general -- argued that the program was mired in fraud and deception. Trump's camp rejected the suits' claims as "baseless." And Trump has charged that the New York case against him is politically motivated. Hide Caption 20 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump attends the U.S. Open tennis tournament with his third wife, Melania Knauss-Trump, and their son, Barron, in 2006. Trump and Knauss married in 2005. Hide Caption 21 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump wrestles with "Stone Cold" Steve Austin at WrestleMania in 2007. Trump has close ties with the WWE and its CEO, Vince McMahon. Hide Caption 22 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise For "The Apprentice," Trump was honored with a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame in January 2007. Hide Caption 23 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump appears on the set of "The Celebrity Apprentice" with two of his children -- Donald Jr. and Ivanka -- in 2009. Hide Caption 24 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump poses with Miss Universe contestants in 2011. Trump had been executive producer of the Miss Universe, Miss USA and Miss Teen USA pageants since 1996. Hide Caption 25 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise In 2012, Trump announces his endorsement of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney. Hide Caption 26 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump speaks in Sarasota, Florida, after accepting the Statesman of the Year Award at the Sarasota GOP dinner in August 2012. It was shortly before the Republican National Convention in nearby Tampa. Hide Caption 27 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump appears on stage with singer Nick Jonas and television personality Giuliana Rancic during the 2013 Miss USA pageant. Hide Caption 28 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise In June 2015, during a speech from Trump Tower, Trump announced that he was running for President. He said he would give up "The Apprentice" to run. Hide Caption 29 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump -- flanked by U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio, left, and Ted Cruz -- speaks during a CNN debate in Miami on March 10. Trump dominated the GOP primaries and emerged as the presumptive nominee in May. Hide Caption 30 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise The Trump family poses for a photo in New York in April. Hide Caption 31 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump speaks during a campaign event in Evansville, Indiana, on April 28. After Trump won the Indiana primary, his last two competitors dropped out of the GOP race. Hide Caption 32 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump delivers a speech at the Republican National Convention in July, accepting the party's nomination for President. "I have had a truly great life in business," he said. "But now, my sole and exclusive mission is to go to work for our country -- to go to work for you. It's time to deliver a victory for the American people." Hide Caption 33 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump faces Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the first presidential debate, which took place in Hempstead, New York, in September. Hide Caption 34 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump apologizes in a video, posted to his Twitter account in October, for vulgar and sexually aggressive remarks he made a decade ago regarding women. "I said it, I was wrong and I apologize," Trump said, referring to lewd comments he made during a previously unaired taping of "Access Hollywood." Multiple Republican leaders rescinded their endorsements of Trump after the footage was released. Hide Caption 35 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump walks on stage with his family after he was declared the election winner on November 9. "Ours was not a campaign, but rather, an incredible and great movement," he told his supporters in New York. Hide Caption 36 of 37 Photos: Donald Trump's rise Trump is joined by his family as he is sworn in as President on January 20. Hide Caption 37 of 37

Trump apologized during the debate, and when pressed by debate moderator and CNN Anchor Anderson Cooper, Trump said he had never made unwanted sexual advances on women.

But rather than appealing to women with thoughtful words of contrition or an explanation of how he had changed, Trump again merely dismissed his 2005 comments about women as "locker room banter," before veering incoherently into a tangent about ISIS and beheadings around the world.

That missed opportunity to reach out to voters disgusted by the tape was only amplified by the spectacle that Trump staged before the debate -- parading out three women who had previously accused Bill Clinton of sexual misconduct in the 1990s, in an attempt to unnerve his opponent. Several Republican strategists and donors said they cringed as they watched the bizarre scene play out as a prelude to the debate.

It remains to be seen how voters will greet Trump's strategy of trying to shift the conversation to Bill Clinton's past, and how they will react to his fierce attacks on Clinton, who sometimes fares better among female voters when she is viewed as a victim.

With less than a month until Election Day, Trump has significant ground to make up.