Dates for Bihar polls are to be announced this week. Pollster turned politician Yogendra Yadav puts on his psephologists hat and tells TOI that he believes the BJP will be the pre-eminent force in Bihar. He also says Nitish Kumar is now a tragic figure.

Q: Bihar polls to be announced any day now, let me ask you to wear your psephologists hat and tell me who has the edge?

A: I no longer have access to the technical and scientific data that I used to, but I can make a few broad points. No matter who forms the government, BJP will emerge as the pre-eminent political force in Bihar. This is a major shift from what Bihar used to be. Remember, BJP used to be the number 3 or number 4 party in Bihar. We cannot be sure of the outcome, that’s a guessing game. But the manner in which the game is being played is BJP vs the rest, all major political formations coming up against the BJP. What this does, is it makes the BJP the number 1 political force in Bihar. In a way this is a tragedy for Bihar because it reverses all the gains of social justice politics of the last two decades.

Q: How so?

A: In the early 90s the entire feudal set up of Bihar was dismantled. This was liberating, a massive change. The caste coalition of the BJP is 80 per cent upper caste, supported by the dalits and the lower OBCs. So the Dalits and lower OBCs provide the numbers and the dominant castes of yesteryear decide the direction, they’re in the driver’s seat. This is the kind of social coalition that the Congress had in the 1950s, but in Bihar its clearly a reversal. So with the BJP’s rise to pre-eminent position, the gains of social justice politics will be reversed. This is the great achievement of Messers Lalu and Nitish, that they have made the BJP in Bihar, what the Congress once was in the entire country.

Q:Is the era of the politics of social justice over in Bihar?

A: What began as a major change of the feudal mindset of Bihar got stuck because social justice did not translate into developmental gains. Lalu Yadav’s first government brought huge changes, the fact of his being there was the huge change. After that, the second and third regimes were a curse on Bihar. Nothing happened or was allowed to happen. Unless the politics of social justice can be combined with something for ordinary people on a day to day basis we have the danger of the gains of social justice being rolled back, without corresponding gains in the governance being offered.

Social justice today is the private company of a caste. Look at appointments in UP, all appointments being dished out to one single caste. How can you possibly sustain this? What moral legitimacy do you have? People will start mocking at social justice, social justice will become a word of hate, if social justice stands only for dominance by a single caste. Social justice politics has let down the cause of social justice.

Q: But isn’t the arithmetic with the Lalu Nitish mahagathbandhan?

A: There is a lot of arithmetic involved so we don’t exactly know the outcome. But remember whenever grand coalitions have been formed against one force, that force emerges dominant. Remember what happened to the mahagathbandhans in the 1970s they were all against Mrs Gandhi and she won. Whenever you have a large grand coalition against one force, a force that wasn’t even the number 2 force in Bihar until recently, what you are doing in the long run is to ensure that it emerges as the pole around which Bihar politics will revolve. That is the long term issue in this election, no matter what the result is. I must make it clear here, I’m not guessing the result.

Q: So will Modi’s chemistry outshine caste arithmetic?

A: Precisely because the Lalu- Nitish alliance has arithmetic on its side which is a euphemism for getting its caste coalitions right, the BJP is getting the opportunity to speak on the chemistry subjects, that is governance, future of Bihar et al which the BJP actually has no track record to talk about. But they are able to talk about it. So no matter who wins, Bihar loses in this election because the choice is between naked majoritarianism versus a completely defocused caste coalition which offers nothing for the future of Bihar, and which includes one of the most corrupt political forces this country has ever seen. So its majoritarianism versus corruption—what a tragic choice.

Q: The BJP’s been consolidating its position since the Lok Sabha gains in Bihar?

A: Of course it has, that’s what every party tries to do. But the question is what are BJP’s opponents trying to do? Gather every political formation to oppose the BJP? This to me is very vacuous politics, even though it may work electorally. It shows the bankruptcy of secular politics in our country. You gather everyone, be it Lalu Yadav convicted in fodder scam, or it could be Sharad Pawar or Congress, as long as everyone’s against BJP, this is supposed to represent some grand secular cause? It does not. If this is what secularism stands for, secularism will become the laughing stock of this country. Secularism is a sacred principles of our nation but it’s also the biggest fraud being played out in politics and what’s happening in Bihar just represents that fraud.

Q: So has Arvind Kejriwal betrayed the anti-corruption movement by standing with a coalition that includes Lalu Prasad Yadav?

A: I don’t see politics in personal terms. But this is the politics of haste, politics of short term of getting power at any cost. We formally don’t have a photo of Lalu and Arvind together, but the mental image is there. This a betrayal of the promise of the anti corruption movement. Once we begin to make these compromises, where will it end?

Q: As far as minorities are concerned, Congress used them as a vote bank but will Modi’s victory in Bihar — if there is one — heighten Hindu muslim divide?

A: Secularism is a sacred idea, it’s a foundational pillar of India. But the way it has been practiced by the Congress and by the RJD is to keep the minorities hostage to fear, keep them hostage to security concerns. Don’t allow them to think about jobs just say we’ll keep you safe from riots. Minorities bought this for a while but they can see through this now. Secular politics has become pathetic and has to be reinvented away from just jod-tod and arithmetic. Mind you, voters are beginning to see the other side too. Hindutva has nothing to do with Hinduism, Hindutva-vaadis don’t understand traditional Hinduism at all. Both are bankrupt which will soon become clear to voters. But at the moment, the bankruptcy of secular politics is being exposed. Secularism is too precious to be left to the secularists.

Q: What do you make of Nitish Kumar today?

A: To me he is a tragic figure. Given his own place in the caste hierarchy, he was uniquely poised to reach out to the those above and those below. He also understood governance and administration. But he gave up too soon. He tried the social justice plus development agenda once and succeeded. But one Lok Sabha defeat has made him surrender to everything he once stood against. Yet his entire career has been one of compromises. He has become a Manmohan Singh like figure who perhaps personally is not corrupt but began to tolerate corruption and presided over a corrupt regime. Then comes final the final compromise with Lalu. He could have taken the stand that even if I lose I will stick with my principles of social justice and development, sit it out for five years. But the unwillingness to sit it out and work for the long term, impatience, the desire to cling to power at all costs, in a way is his undoing.