Winston Peters is more likely to squeeze out ACT and the Maori Party than the Greens.

OPINION: Metres of online commentary have been taken up talking about the possibility of NZ First squeezing the Greens out of Government in a potential three-way Centre-Left Government after September 23.

But much less understood is the existential threat Winston Peters and his party represent to the three smaller parties on National's side of the House.

In truth he is set to hold the key - as in "of the jail" - for the political futures of all three.

Winston Peters has targeted the Maori Party, and objected to the use of Te Reo in Parliament.

If Peters grabs the balance of power and opts to install a Labour-led Government it would almost certainly require the active support of the Greens - or at the very least their abstention - giving them some bargaining power. He may try to marginalise them, but they would not be devoid of influence.



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But if instead he puts together a Government with National the two parties between them would have an overwhelming majority in the House. On current polling they would have something like 68 seats in the 120 or 121 seat Parliament.

That would leave the Maori Party, ACT and United Future surplus to requirements for a majority.

Stuff Prime Minister Bill English has stated his preference to his current support parties over NZ First.

If Peters had an incentive to sideline the Greens, even when they could play a pivotal role on confidence and supply votes, imagine what attitude he might take to the three minor parties.

In that scenario they would bring nothing but ballast to key votes in the House.

And that's before you consider Peters attitude to ACT's David Seymour ("a cuckolded political prostitute") and the Maori Party (a separatist entity based on seats he is moving to get rid of).

Why would he dial any of them into positions of influence, let alone ministerial or Cabinet posts?

Prime Minister Bill English has made his play to avoid the clutches of NZ First, hobbling his own candidates in Epsom and Ohariu and effectively making ACT leader David Seymour and United Future leader Peter Dunne the de facto National candidates. He has gone so far as saying he would vote for them, not his own National candidate, if he was enrolled in those seats.

National's candidate in Ohariu Brett Hudson has pledged to carry through on that and vote for Dunne rather than himself.

But what if English and National fail in that push to reforge the current governing arrangements, with support from one, two or all three minnows? Then it's difficult to see how (or why) he would resist for long a demand from Peters to leave them shivering on the cross benches.

There is no doubt Seymour gets it.

He has been hammering the message that only a larger ACT can keep out of power Peters - who he has called "an ongoing national disaster" and who he has lumped into a "cabal of crooks" with Green co-leader Metiria Turei.

But it is not a one way street.

Just as ACT could be crucial in keeping Peters from power, it is at least equally likely NZ First will be in a position to return the favour.

And ACT would be in a dreadful position sitting on the cross benches, with no role in Government, nugatory influence through its vote(s) and no friends in Opposition.