Iowa State at Baylor

Betting Line: Baylor +2.5

Over/Under: 56.5

Iowa State was able to shake off their loss against Iowa a couple weeks ago as they beat ULM 72-20 last week. The Cyclones were led by 435 passing yards from Brock Purdy on just 27 passes. Tarique Milton had 142 receiving yards and Deshaunte Jones had 100 of his own. Purdy will need another solid game this week. Iowa State found a bit more success on the ground, but not much in terms of running back play as Purdy and backup quarterback Re-al Mitchell were the two leading rushers for the Cyclones. Knee Nwangwu, Sheldon Croney Jr., and Jirehl Brock have all been getting their fair share of carries and none of them have made much of it. I think Iowa State will be very good on offense if they can at least be a threat on the ground. Defensively, the Cyclones will need to account for a good quarterback in Baylor’s Charlie Brewer. The Cyclones have to be sure to stay strong in pass coverage, especially against Denzel Mims, Baylor’s leading receiver. Datrone Young and Anthony Johnson will have a tough task in front of them, but it is definitely doable.

Baylor had a bit of a concerning performance last week against Rice as the Bears won just 21-13 against a Rice team who has lost twenty five of their last 27 games. Charlie Brewer had a good day through the air but Baylor heavily struggled on the ground. Brewer led the team in rushing yards and no running back had over 39 yards on the ground. Baylor also will be playing against a solid Iowa State defensive front. JaQuan Bailey and Ray Lima are very good defensive linemen for Iowa State and Baylor will need to do well at holding them off. Baylor.’a offensive line will have a tough task ahead of them, it they need to perform. Baylor needs to solve their issue of not as good running back play. Defensively, the Bears will be dealing with a very good quarterback in Iowa State’ Brock Purdy. If Baylor can contain Purdy, that will be a good start. The other key will be to prevent big plays. Iowa State has had many explosive plays this season and Baylor con not surrender momentum that easily.

Prediction:

Iowa State proves they are still good with a 33-31 win, but Baylor covers the spread. This game will be fun.

USC at Washington

Betting Line: Washington-10

Over/Under: 59

USC got a very nice 30-23 win last week over top 10 Utah. Kedon Slovis went down early, leaving Matt Fink, who was the third string quarterback at the start of the season, to take the reigns. Fink made the most of his opportunity, completing 21/30 passes for 351 yards and three touchdowns. Fink will get the nod this game with Slovis out still. Fink got a ton of help from USC’s receivers, especially Michael Pittman Jr. who had 232 receiving yards against Utah. If the receivers can create separation again, it will be a big help. Fink also had the benefit of being protected well by USC’s offensive line. This was a bit of a surprise as it has been a weakness the last couple seasons. If the offensive line continues to do well, it will make things a lot easier for this pass happy offense. On defense, the Trojans should try to bring pressure early. Washington quarterback Jacob Eason makes some great throws and has a very strong arm, but he can get erratic at times. If USC can force him into same bad throws, it will grant their defense a lot of favors. Safety Talanoa Hufanga led the team in tackles last week and will miss this game with a concussion. He will be a tough absence to fill for USC. The Trojans still have a good group of linebackers led by Palaie Gaoteote IV and John Houston Jr. I expect them both to be bringing pressure and blitzing often.

Washington had a very strong team win over BYU with a score of 45-19. Jacob Eason had a very good day at quarterback, completing 24/28 passes for 290 yards and three touchdowns. Eason’s main target was Aaron Fuller who had eight catches for 91 yards. Sean McGrew stepped in nicely for the United Salvon Ahmed at running back and ran for 110 yards. Ahmed is questionable for the game against USC so McGrew has to be ready to carry the load if need be. Eason will need to continue to be accurate with the Ball this game. He can not get sloppy with his throws or USC will punish him for it. On defense, Washington’s cornerbacks will have their work cut out for them. Cornerbacks Elijah Molden and Kyler Gordon and nickel back Myles Bryant can not get burned by the likes of Michael Pittman Jr., Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tyler Vaughns. Washington also could do well in exploiting USC’s weaker offensive line and putting pressure on an inexperienced quarterback.

Prediction:

Washington proves too much for USC as they win 38-24.

Clemson at North Carolina

Betting Line: Clemson +26.5

Over/Under: 61

Clemson had another dominant win last week as they blasted Charlotte 52-10. The Tigers also took out their starters in the first half as they held a 31-0 lead with eight minutes left in the second quarter. Trevor Lawrence struggled a bit to start the season but looked good on Saturday. Lawrence is still an elite quarterback and struggling for him is just looking human. North Carolina has a solid run defense, but I believe Clemson has an offensive line good enough to overcome that with ease. Travis Etienne is also an elite back that I see North Carolina struggling to stop. I expect Clemson to handle their business offensively, but they need to avoid any missteps up front if they want to cover the spread. On defense, I think Clemson can clobber North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell. Howell, a true freshman, has done well, but facing Clemson’s defensive front will be a whole different beast. Xavier Thomas and the defensive line could wreck North Carolina’s offense with a successful pass rush. North Carolina has a solid duo at receiver in Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome. Clemson needs to do well in coverage against them. AJ Terrell and Derion Kendrick need to be sound in coverage if they want to get the easy win. Even though North Carolina has their strengths, strengths, Clemson should cruise here.

North Carolina had two exciting wins to start the season, but fell to 2-2 after they lost Appalachian State 34-31 last week. The Tar Heels fell behind in the first quarter and never regained the lead. Sam Howell started to show cracks at quarterback as he threw two interceptions and had one of his fumbles returned for a touchdown. He still threw for 323 yards and three touchdowns but he has to take care of the ball. North Carolina also needs to be able to not get blown up in the battle of the trenches. Clemson has a very good defensive front and could wreak havoc on the Tar Heels if they are not careful. If the offensive line can hold their own, it will give Howell more time to throw, the receivers more time to get open, and it will allow the run game to develop as well. If Charlie Heck does play, (he is listed as questionable) it will help out. Dazz Newsome needs to be able to show his athletic abilities at receiver this week. If he can get open, it will give the offense a nice home run threat. Defensively, North Carolina will be spread thin. I think they will need to have a safety play over the top in order to ensure they can cover the likes of Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross. Higgins and Ross are big receivers as well so the Tar Heels have to be tough in coverage. Myles Woolfolk is listed as questionable and will need to play if North Carolina wants to really feel safe at all in pass coverage. If not, then Myles Dorn will really have to pick up the slack. North Carolina also needs to be able to not just get run over by Travis Etienne and Clemson’s run game.

Prediction:

Clemson’s talent and coaching are just too much for North Carolina as the Tigers take home a 48-14 win.

Virginia at Notre Dame

Betting Line: Notre Dame -11.5

Over/Under: 50.5

Virginia did win last week, but they still had a rough go of it against Old Dominion. The Cavaliers were behind 17-0 at one point in the second quarter. They got it together to win 28-17 but some things were a bit concerning. Virginia could not get anything going on the ground, and Bryce Perkins was not quite as effective as usual. Perkins will need to make things happen both through the air and on the ground for Virginia to win this game. If Virginia wins this game, it will be behind the arm and legs of Perkins. Virginia also needs to generate a run game outside of Perkins. Wayne Taulapapa and PK Kier need to get something going. Virginia also needs to be better than 1/11 on third down. Defensively, Virginia will need their cornerbacks to play tough against Chase Claypool, Cole Kmet, and Notre Dame’s receivers. Claypool is a big receiver and Kmet had his breakout game at tight end last week. Bryce Hall can be trusted to lock up whoever he goes against but his fellow cornerbacks need to pick it up. I expect them to press on the line, which would force a fairly weak armed quarterback to beat them deep. Virginia had 11 tackles for loss against Old Dominion last week and it will be great if they could come close to replicating it. Outside linebacker Charles Snowden had a great game against Old Dominion as he racked up two sacks, 3.5 tackles for loss, and 15 total tackles. He will be a player to watch on Saturday.

Notre Dame might have lost at Georgia last week, but I still was impressed by their performance as they played it close with a 23-17 loss playing at the third ranked team in the country. The Fighting Irish struggled to run the Ball effectively against Georgia and will need to turn that around in this game. Tony Jones Jr. has had to step in for the injured Jafar Armstrong and struggled last week. If Notre Dame can be effective on the ground, it will open up the passing game a great deal. Part of this is also on Tommy Kraemer and the offensive line, who will need to do well in run blocking. Ian Book did well against Georgia but will need to take care of the ball better, as he threw two interceptions against Georgia. I feel like they need to throw Cole Kmet and Chase Claypool more jump balls, and this could work against Virginia. They will need to account for an elite cornerback in Virginia’s Bryce Hall. If Notre Dame can find success against Hall, their offense will be in a significantly better place. Defensively, Notre Dame will likely have to put a spy on Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins. I expect the spy to be Jeremiah Owusu-Karamoah, who plays the rover spot. Owusu-Karamoah is second on the team in tackles but will have his hands full against a dual threat like Perkins. I expect Owusu-Karamoah to play, but he is listed as questionable for the game. If he does not play, I expect backup rover Paul Moala and strong safety Jalen Elliott to also play a role in containing Perkins and I expect him to fill it well. If defensive ends Khalid Kareem and Julian Okwara can do well in the pass rush, it will also go a long way.

Prediction:

Virginia keeps it interesting but Notre Dame wins 30-21.

Mississippi State at Auburn

Betting Line: Auburn -11

Over/Under: 47.5

Mississippi State had a very nice 28-13 win over Kentucky. Quarterback Garrett Shrader had a very good performance, going for 180 yards through the air and another 125 on the ground. The Bulldogs averaged 9.2 yards per play when Shrader ran or threw the ball. While his performance was quite impressive last week, it looks like Tommy Stevens will likely get the start at quarterback. Stevens looked shaky earlier in the season but that could have been due to a shoulder injury, and I think sitting out last week helped him out. Stevens is a good dual threat and has experience in head coach Joe Moorhead’s system. Mississippi State will have to win the battle against Auburn’s defensive line which is a monstrosity of a unit. Stevens will need to be able to make throws on the run. Running back Kylin Hill has been a great workhorse for the Bulldogs this season, going for at least 110 yards in every game so far this season. Yards will come a bit harder this game, but I think he can still grind some out, especially if the offensive line holds their own. On defense, I think Mississippi State needs to aim to stop the run, and put pressure on Bo Nix. I think if Mississippi State forced a true freshman quarterback to beat them through the air, it can be a tough challenge. Auburn can be deadly running the ball with JaTarvious Whitlow and Shaun Shivers, and if they can be neutralized, it will be huge. Defensive tackles Fabien Lovett and Lee Autry will be very important players this game as will middle linebacker Errol Thompson as they have to stop Auburn from just running the ball straight up the gut.

Auburn had a very good performance last week as they traveled to College Station and took down Texas A&M 28-20. The game was not as close as the score would make it seem as Auburn led 21-3 at one point. The Tigers absolutely handcuffed Texas A&M on the ground, allowing just 56 rushing yards and 2.7 yards per attempt. Mississippi State does have a better ground game, but Auburn is up for the challenge. Derrick Brown might be the best defensive tackle in the country (I am sure every reader is going crazy because of someone I just forgot about) but is listed as questionable for the game with what is just being called an “upper body injury”. If Brown plays, it will give the defensive front a boost. If not, they still have a good path to success. Tyrone Truesdell and Marlon Davidson are very good players in their own right. They will be looking to slow down a very good running back in Mississippi State’s Kylin Hill. If they can keep Hill from carrying the offense, Auburn will be in a good spot. I think Mississippi State might struggle to really push the ball downfield as they will either play a freshman or someone recovering from a shoulder injury at quarterback. Either way, Auburn can find success easily by stopping the run. On offense, the offensive line needs to hold up. If Auburn can get JaTarvious Whitlow going early on the ground, things could get out of hand quite fast. I think Whitlow, Shaun Shivers, and even backup quarterback Joey Gatewood on occasion can lead to a very good ground game for Auburn. If they get ahead early, they can just chip at Mississippi State’s defense.

Prediction:

This game looks like an interesting one, but I think Auburn survives and wins 24-17.

Ohio State at Nebraska

Betting Line: Nebraska +17.5

Over/Under: 67

Ohio State took care of business last week with a 76-5 win over Miami Ohio. The Buckeyes were completely dominant as they have been this whole season against a pretty weak schedule so far. Ohio State’s offense has been led by the excellent play of quarterback Justin Fields. Fields completed 14/21 passes for 223 yards and four touchdowns last week. Fields also has made a very big impact on the ground. If he can continue with this, Ohio State will be mowing down Nebraska’s defense. On the ground, JK Dobbins has done quite well in his first season as the lead back. The one thing that worries me for Ohio State’s offense is that this will be the first big road test for Justin Fields. Still, I think he and the rest of the offense has the talent to pull this off still. On defense, the Buckeyes will be expending a lot of energy on Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez. I expect Chase Young to be able to handle his matchup at defensive end and make things very difficult for Martinez. If the Buckeyes can put pressure on him and his spy can do well, I expect Ohio State’s talent advantage to shine through in all other matchups.

Nebraska had a bad start last week but ultimately gutted out a 42-38 win over Illinois. Adrian Martinez carried a heavy load at quarterback as he threw for 327 yards and ran for another 118. While Martinez needs a good game for Nebraska to win or even keep it close, he also needs some help. That help looks to be running back Wan’Dale Robinson and Maurice Washington. If those two can make the run game be reliable, it will prevent Ohio State from being able to sell out against the pass. JD Spielman had an impressive 159 receiving yards against Illinois and will look to be a prime target again this week. The Cornhuskers also will need to hold off Ohio State’s elite defensive end Chase Young. Young is a physical freak who will be a top five pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. If they can keep him away from Martinez, it will help Nebraska tremendously. On defense, the Cornhuskers need to spy Justin Fields as he is a great dual threat. They also will need to play tough against a more physical back in Ohio State’s JK Dobbins.

Prediction:

Ohio State runs away with this game late as they bring home a 41-20 win with College GameDay in Lincoln.

To be notified when I post, follow my Instagram @impassionedsportsnerd. Last week, I was 5-2 against the spread. I am 18-10-2 on the season.

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