A poll from OnMessage Inc. released by the RNC shows 51 percent of likely voters are less inclined to support a candidate who backs President Barack Obama’s health care bill. Dems roll eyes at GOP polls

Republican groups have flooded the inboxes of reporters and politicos this week with partisan polls spelling doom for Democrats if they pass health care, to the surprise of very few that get sent the surveys.

Republicans tout the polls as proof that House Democrats are casting career deciding votes, and that Barack Obama has bet his presidency on health care reform. But Democrats are less than impressed by the polls showing devastating consequences for the moderates who fall in line with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.


“The bottom line in looking at these Republican polls is that they are skewed in one direction,” Jennifer Crider, spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told POLITICO. “They are not interested in reality. They are interested in creating a false narrative to scare people.”

The Republican National Committee on Wednesday released a poll from OnMessage Inc. – RNC Chairman Michael Steele’s preferred firm – showing that 51 percent of the 1,200 likely voters surveyed nationwide would be less likely to vote for “a candidate who votes for President Obama’s health care bill.” Only 36 percent in the poll said they would be more likely to back a candidate who voted for the bill.

The RNC’s results were similar to the ones found by the Chamber of Commerce and the conservative groups Americans for Limited Government and Susan B. Anthony List.

Susan B. Anthony List – a group backing pro-life candidates – polled Democratic Rep. Bart Stupak’s Michigan district to find that 50 percent would be less likely to vote for Stupak if he dropped his opposition to the bill over federal funding for abortion.

Americans for Limited Government on Thursday released poll results on the congressional districts of 14 Democrats from competitive districts showing more than 50 percent of voters said they would vote against their congressman if they supported health care in 13 of the 14 districts.

And the U.S. Chamber of Commerce picked out ten congressional districts of their own to poll, “all of which showed voters oppose current health care legislation being discussed in Congress, with substantial majorities saying it will raise the cost of their health care,” a press release from the business group touted.

Democrats who spoke to POLITICO said that none of the polls are reflective of anything more than the sponsor’s agenda.

“The numbers that are most telling of what’s going on here are the millions that the insurance industry, as a Chamber spokesman admitted, is pouring in to fund the Chamber’s anti-health insurance reform efforts,” said DNC national press secretary Hari Sevugan.

Democratic strategist Donna Brazile added: “Numbers don't lie, but this is what you get when your polls are paid for by self interested parties like the insurance industry which is working to preserve the status quo.”

The partisan polls have been ignored by most – but not all – national media outlets, which instead usually lean on nonpartisan public polls.

“It is perfectly appropriate for a journalist or a news organization to be skeptical of a survey sponsored by an interest group or campaign,” said Mark Blumenthal, the editor and publisher ofPollster.com.

“On average, they have a 3 or 4 [percentage] point lean to whoever is paying the bill,” said Blumenthal.

Referring to issue polling, he said, “if you look at the wording in the questions on partisan polls it always favors the results they want.”

While most national reporters have kept their distance, the polls do pop up in regional papers – many of which have laid off their most experienced political reporters.

The Chamber of Commerce poll was picked up by the The Las Vegas Review-Journal, The Arizona Daily Star and The Fort Collins Coloradoan – the home town papers of some of Democrats’ most vulnerable congressional members.

Additionally, a survey of physicians sponsored by an industry lobbying group has gotten prominent play in various conservative media outlets during the health care debate, including on some of Fox News’ best rated shows.

But just because the polls commissioned by Republicans may not be completely on the mark, that does not mean they are totally inaccurate.

Democrats have offered little response to the partisan GOP polls, not releasing the district-by-district surveys they frequently conduct – likely a sign that the numbers don’t look good.

And most of the highly reputable nonpartisan firms show that the health care bill is unpopular.

In a Pew Research Center poll released Thursday, only 38 percent said they favor the health care bill, compared to 48 percent who oppose it. Rasmussen Reports also put out a survey on Thursday showing that 50 percent of those polled nationwide would be less likely to vote for their member of Congress if they voted for the bill. Meanwhile, 48 percent of those surveyed in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Tuesday said the health care bill is a “bad idea.”