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All that is on top of the 6-per-cent increase recorded year-on-year in 2016-17.

The government will cling to its “fiscal anchor” crutch — that, despite an extra $20 billion in public debt, growth in the economy means the debt-to-GDP ratio is still on a downward track. But this government’s Achilles heel is that it is prepared to keep spending with borrowed money.

I think Team Trudeau may be misinterpreting the license for ‘modest, short-term’ deficits as a tolerance for bigger, longer ones, at their peril

An opinion poll the Angus Reid Institute published last week asked people who would consider voting Liberal at the next election whether they agreed or disagreed with the government running deficits this year and next, rather than offering the balanced budget Justin Trudeau promised in 2015 he’d deliver those years. Four in 10 disagreed — and, to repeat, those are people who consider themselves “likely” or “maybe” Liberal voters.

“The takeaway is that I think Team Trudeau may be misinterpreting the license for ‘modest, short-term’ deficits as a tolerance for bigger, longer ones, at their peril,” said Aaron Wudrick, federal director of the Canadian Taxpayers’ Federation.

Yet running deficits twice the size as promised, with no plan to return to balance, and no sign that spending is being reined in, is a recipe for future disaster. History suggests recessions come along every eight years or so — and we are overdue. The recent jitters in the stock market over slower growth and tighter U.S. monetary policy may well foreshadow tougher times ahead.

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates eight times since December 2010, which has strengthened the greenback and squeezed emerging markets. There is limited room in Canada, or anywhere else, to fight a downturn with reduced rates, which means even more government spending would be the weapon of choice.

Canada may have the lowest net government debt level in the G7, but the economic surge revealed in the latest annual report suggests it could easily have been lower still. Winter is coming, and Trudeau’s Liberals are ill-prepared.

• Email: jivison@nationalpost.com | Twitter: IvisonJ