The hype about El Nino is starting again.



The abnormally warm water associated with El Nino disrupts the typically nutrient filled, cooler water that occurs in portions of the eastern Pacific. The water off of Peru is normally enriched by upwelling, which ceases when the tradewinds weaken and warm water shows up from the west. This warm water also happens to be one of the biggest influencers of global weather and climate that we know of. Likewise, the cold phase of ENSO (La Nina), which is characterized by unusually cold water in the equatorial Pacific, also has global impacts on weather and climate.

"The development of an El Nino event appears likely at this point, and potentially a moderate to strong event as noted by the latest data in the equatorial Pacific." -- Mark Willis

At this point, it looks like an El Nino is developing. Above-average sea surface temperatures now exist and the tradewinds have recently diminished or reversed (become westerly) over portions of the equatorial Pacific. In addition, a significant “Kelvin Wave” (in a nutshell, a mass of warm water that extends deep into the ocean and moves from west to east) has increased oceanic heat content to the largest value since 1979. All of these things suggest that the likelihood of an El Nino event, and potentially a moderate to strong event, are becoming more and more likely.NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has continued its “El Nino Watch” as of April 10, which means, “conditions are favorable for the development of El Nino or La Nina conditions within the next six months." The CPC also noted in their most recent update that conditions "reflect a clear evolution toward an El Nino state" and the chances of an El Nino now exceed 50%. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia is now estimating a greater than 70% chance that an El Nino will develop by the northern hemisphere summer.One of the most important things to recognize is that El Nino events are all different. A weak El Nino may not make as much noise as a strong El Nino. However, in a strong El Nino year, there are major impacts to global weather and climate. Here are a few things that typically happen in some of our major markets:. Often times, El Nino means fewer Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea tropical systems because the rising air over the warmer than normal water in the East Pacific ultimately leads to more wind shear in the Atlantic. More wind shear is not good for tropical cyclone genesis (or maintenance). While that’s obviously not a good thing for East Coast surf chances, it doesn’t necessarily mean it's going to be a horrible summer/fall season, either. Nature and its relation with good and bad surf are more complicated than that.Contrarily, the nearby supply of warm water during El Nino years also tends to lead to more frequent and more intense tropical storms and hurricanes in the eastern Pacific. This can lead to more significant S/SSE tropical swells for California and Baja. Other parts of Mexico and even Cabo can also see SW/W swells from these systems.The elephant in the room in relation to surfing during El Nino winters is the more intense and further south storm track that impacts the North Pacific. This can lead to lots of big waves, rain (mountain snow), and coastal flooding for portions of California. If all of that occurs at the same time it might not be great for surfing, but it sure is exciting if you can find a window. During both the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Nino years, we saw strong signals of more intense storms compared to normal in the Gulf of Alaska region. Average pressures in the Gulf of Alaska during these El Nino events were in the range of 10-12mb below normal (stronger storms) during December, January, and February. Those winters obviously led to all-time, epic winters on the West Coast, but also led to a lot of damage and coastal impacts. The energized and further south storm track can also be favorable for bigger waves at NW exposed breaks in Hawaii, Mexico, and even Central/South America.The main signal for Gulf/East Coasters is that the frequency of strong extratropical cyclones that develop in the Gulf of Mexico is significantly higher during El Nino winters. While this can lead to increased precipitation and severe weather for portions of the south and Southeastern U.S., it can also lead to enhanced short period windswell events. We’ll take it.See slides 7 and 8 above.The development of an El Nino event appears likely at this point, and potentially a moderate to strong event as noted by the latest data in the equatorial Pacific. There are a lot of complexities associated with scoring great waves during El Nino years depending on the season, but we think the chances are increasing forA more active East Pacific Hurricane SeasonLess Active Atlantic/Gulf/Caribbean hurricane seasonA more intense and further south winter storm track in the North Pacific andMore intense and frequent winter storms developing in the Gulf of Mexico. Stay tuned.