Reeling from defeat in the midterm elections, Republicans have started to entertain the following hope: The liberal base will force Democrats to nominate somebody totally crazy as their presidential candidate in 2020, ensuring the re-election of President Trump.

The dream that a victorious party will be consumed by radicals, overreach, and become unelectable, has long been a refuge for parties following a major loss. It was the hope Republicans held out after a drubbing in 2006, and that Democrats had after being massacred in 2014. Yet in the presidential elections that followed, those hopes were dashed, as voters sent former President Barack Obama and Trump to the White House.

Looking toward 2020, there is good reason to believe that Trump, despite his low approval rating, will be able to shake off defeat and get re-elected. The U.S. political system gives a strong advantage to incumbents. Obama and former President Bill Clinton both coasted to re-election after suffering devastating losses during the first midterm elections of their presidencies.

Trump has consolidated the support of his party, with 89 percent approval among Republicans, according to Gallup — higher than Obama’s at the same point in his presidency. Trump helped Republicans maintain the Senate by campaigning aggressively in states where he was popular — picking up seats in Missouri, Indiana and likely Florida.

Furthermore, while in 2016, Trump’s candidacy was treated in many quarters as an absurdity, after four years in office, Americans will have become more used to the idea of him as president. And as president, he will be in an even better position to dominate the news cycle.

The liberal base of the Democratic Party is angry and out for blood. But, there are currently two dozen potential presidential candidates and no clear frontrunner . Some of the candidates frequently touted have stumbled in early forays into the national spotlight — whether it was New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker’s “Spartacus moment” or Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s DNA test gambit that backfired badly .

Given how many pundits underestimated Trump in 2016, there’s a reluctance to bet against him again.

Having set all of that, there are a few important things we shouldn’t forget.

Trump ran against the most unpopular Democratic nominee in history . That is, Hillary Clinton was not only less popular than any prior winner, but less popular than any loser — a list that includes Al Gore, John Kerry, and Mitt Romney.

This isn’t to take anything away from his impressive win, which few considered possible, but the reality is that Trump’s victory was relatively narrow and provides him little margin for error in 2020.

Looking back at the 2016 electoral map, let’s say Trump keeps Florida and Ohio, which seem to be moving from classic swing states to ones that tip toward Republicans. That still wouldn’t be enough to get him over the top. He would have to hang on to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan — all states that he won by less than 1 point and where Democrats defeated Republicans during the midterm elections. In each state, exit polls showed a majority of voters disapproved of Trump.

It also doesn’t seem likely that Trump’s brand of populism will help him flip states such as Colorado and Virginia, once Republican states that changing demographics converted to purple and that may be drifting blue — especially if Republicans’ dismal performance in the suburbs continues.

It’s hard to see who emerges from a crowded Democratic field, but remember, Bill Clinton was polling at under 2 percent at the start of the 1992 cycle. At the time, former President George H.W. Bush was seen as so formidable, that there was even a famous “Saturday Night Live” sketch featuring a mock debate of Democrats arguing over which one of them would be the guy to lose to Bush. We all know how that turned out.

The bottom line is that if Republican dreams turn out to be wrong, and Democrats manage to nominate somebody who polls more like a regular Democrat, it wouldn’t take much — just a small shift — to tank Trump.

It’s never a good position to be in as a political party when one’s success is largely contingent on the other side messing up royally.