CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Conventional wisdom has long held that a parent’s incarceration could have negative short- and long-term effects on a child’s development. New research based on data from Ohio’s three largest cities concludes that, in certain cases, a child could benefit from a jailed parent.

In certain criminal cases, a judge might decide between sentencing a criminal defendant to jail or prison, or doling out a punishment that does not include incarceration. The study concludes that in those cases, a judge’s decision to impose incarceration could increase a child’s long-term financial prospects, and decrease the likelihood that child themselves might end up in jail someday.

“The Effects of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio,” a study released Thursday by three university researchers uses data from Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati to measure outcomes for the children of criminal defendants.

The study focuses only on a sample of children whose parents were charged with crimes, said University of Chicago professor Sam Norris, one of the study’s three authors.

“We’re not saying incarceration is going to be positive for every child. What we’re estimating is the effect of defendants who are on the bubble of being incarcerated,” Norris said. “I think this is an important group to study because it’s the group most likely to be affected by any [criminal-justice] reforms.”

Norris, who co-authored the study with University of California Berkeley professor Matthew Pecenco and University of Southern California professor Jeffrey Weaver, said in a phone interview that he was not expecting the data to show incarceration could have a beneficial effect in certain cases.

“We expected that [the data] would make incarceration look worse, and that children would be harmed in a bunch of ways by their parents being incarcerated. But it turns out that’s not true,” he said.

Over the years, numerous studies have found links between a parent’s incarceration and a child’s health or behavioral problems. A 2015 study by the nonprofit Child Trends research center found evidence that a parent’s incarceration could lead to emotional difficulties and a greater likelihood of problems in school.

“For a child to see a parent incarcerated, it causes a huge sense of trauma for the child,” said Tamara Chapman-Wagner, a deputy director with Cuyahoga County’s Division of Children and Family Services. “Not only are they separated from their caregiver, but there’s stigma association with a parent being incarcerated.”

The study released this week concludes the high costs associated with incarceration outweigh the marginal benefits some children might experience. The annual costs that states like Ohio pay to house inmates in state prisons also exceed benefits of a reduction in crime while the inmate is in jail, the study says.

Norris believes the study is evidence that more research needs to be done to determine why some children benefit when a parent is incarcerated. If researchers can identify a reason, it could help shape future criminal justice policies, he said.

“[The data] suggests there are opportunities for public policy that we’ve overlooked,” Norris said. “There’s a lot of resilience in these kids, and in these communities.”

Incarceration could deter children from crime, study theorizes

The study found that if a judge opts to sentence a criminal defendant to jail or prison, it could decrease the likelihood the defendant’s child turns to crime. By the age of 25, those children are 6.6 percent less likely to be charged with a crime, 5.5 percent less likely to be convicted and 4.9 percent less likely to end up behind bars, the study says.

The study offers several theories for why the incarceration of a parent or sibling could benefit a child. If a parent is incarcerated, a child might move to a more stable home environment with a relative or foster parent. That could be even more beneficial if the incarcerated parent has mental-health or substance-abuse issues, or there is physical or sexual abuse involved.

Seeing a parent incarcerated could also serve as a “scared straight” deterrent to dissuade a child from criminal activity, the study says.

Chapman-Wagner acknowledged that there could be some benefits from a parent being incarcerated for a short time. For example, a parent suffering from drug addiction may get treatment while in custody.

But there’s also the chance for a parent to become angry and defiant in prison, which could affect the child once they’re released, she said.

“Every person is different,” Chapman-Walker said. “Part of that is based on resiliency.”

Children are more likely to benefit if the parent receives a short-term prison sentence of less than one year, the data says. The study did not find any statistical significance that a child benefitted if their parent faced a prison sentence of more than one year.

“The fact the effects are somewhat more concentrated among short-term [prison sentences] is at least consistent with there being some deterrent effects on a child,” Norris said. “The fact their parent is incarcerated, to some extent, scares them straight. But if the incarceration stretches longer, they may not see that benefit.”

Furthermore, the study does not find any significant impacts on a those children’s academic performances. There is no evidence to suggest any changes in test scores or GPA, and there’s no evidence they’re more likely to repeat a grade, the study says.

The methodology

The study says Ohio is an “ideal” setting to research criminal justice, because it is broadly representative of the U.S. The average number of people jailed in Ohio – 780 per 100,000 residents – is similar to the national average of 780 per 100,000 residents. Ohio also has crime and recidivism rates that are representative of the national average, the study says.

The researchers collected court records from 2.6 million criminal cases, but used only the records from approximately 801,000 cases that were randomly-assigned to judges from 1991-2017.

The cases involved 462,881 separate defendants, 77 percent of whom were male. Most of the cases involved drug or property crimes, the study says.

The researchers used birth records to link a criminal defendants to their child, and used records from the Cleveland Metropolitan School District to measure a child’s test scores, GPA and attendance.

Finally, the researchers used voting records to determine the neighborhood where the child lived as an adult, and used U.S. Census data to measure the neighborhood’s poverty level.

The study did not find any notable differences in the impacts of a parent’s incarceration depending on the child’s gender or age. It did find that a parent’s incarceration has more benefit to black children, but Norris could not offer a specific reason for that finding.

“Obviously, there are a lot of ways that African-American and white kids are different. One obvious way is that criminal defendants are more disadvantaged if they’re black,” Norris said. “But I don’t think we’ve nailed it down by any means.”

Effects on a child’s education and economic prospects

The “trauma hypothesis” argues that a child is separated from a parent, it could have negative short- and long-term effects. But the study says there is no evidence that a parent’s incarceration impacts a child’s academic performance or long-term financial prospects.

Using CMSD data, the researchers determined a parent’s incarceration does not have large-scale effects on a child’s test scores in school. But it could not rule out small or medium effects.

The researchers did not find any statistically-significant effects on a child’s GPA, the number of times they missed school, or the likelihood of them needing to repeat a grade.

“Across all outcomes, we find no evidence of either a large positive or a negative effect on academic achievement,” the study concludes.

The study also found that children of incarcerated parents tend to move to wealthier neighborhoods as adults. But those neighborhoods still have more people living in poverty than the national average.

“These children are tremendously disadvantaged compared to the national average,” Norris said.