For the first time in more than 20 years, the Manitoba NDP has fallen to third place among the three main provincial parties, according to a new Probe Research survey conducted earlier this month.

The Progressive Conservatives lead with 43% support among decided voters with the Liberals at 29% and the NDP at 22%. The last three Probe polls have seen a steady decline in NDP support while the Liberals have improved. In the last poll in September, the Progressive Conservatives led with 45% with the NDP in second at 25% and the Liberals third at 24%.

In the 2011 provincial election, the NDP won with 46% of the popular support with the Tories in second at 43% and the Liberals a distant third with 8% support and only one seat.

"We could see the trend going that way and we expected to see the Liberals rise at the expense of the NDP — which is exactly what happened," explained Probe Research president Scott MacKay. "In the process of these two trends — the NDP moving down and the Liberals moving up — they've traded places which has put the NDP in third place which we're just not used to seeing.

"I'm not sure if we were betting on our own numbers that we would expect to see the NDP in third place. But there they are and that's the inevitable reality when we see those trend lines start moving that way."

The poll was conducted by telephone between Dec. 3-15 among a random sampling of 1,000 Manitobans.

MacKay, though, had words of caution for both the Tories and the Liberals.

"The other surprising part is that the Conservatives aren't really in the game," said MacKay, who expects seat-rich Winnipeg to be a three-way race. "Sure, they're well ahead of the other parties but it's not that the erosion of the NDP support is going to the Conservatives. It seems to be going almost directly to the Liberals."

He also wonders about what he calls the "Liberal parking lot," where voters park their support before returning to the NDP.

"I think what some people — especially New Democrats — are hoping for is that this horse-trading between the disgruntled New Democrats and the Liberals will actually revert back again," he said. "(They're hoping) that something will happen and people will take a hard look at the Liberals and decide they can't support them and that support will flow back to the NDP again. It's one of their only hopes and the reason that they're hoping for this is they've seen it happen before."

As well, MacKay wonders about the lack of concentrated support for the Liberals, recollecting

how in the 1995 provincial election the Liberals picked up almost 24% of the popular support but only won three seats.

glen.dawkins@sunmedia.ca

Twitter: @SunGlenDawkins