Gary Johnson has spent much of this week apologizing, after he asked: “What is Aleppo?” during a live television interview on Thursday.



But by Saturday, when the Libertarian party presidential candidate held his first campaign rally since the gaffe, he had come to see what he calls “Aleppo day” as a positive.

“It increased fundraising, increased attention,” he told the Guardian as he prepared to address supporters at a hotel in Times Square, in New York City.

“Potentially, this may be a pivotal event in actually contributing to us winning the election.”

It remains to be seen how Aleppo day (Johnson’s official explanation for not recognizing the name of the city at the heart of the Syrian civil war is that he was “thinking about an acronym”) will affect the former New Mexico governor’s popularity with voters.

Prior to Thursday, Johnson was averaging 9% in nationwide polls, according to Real Clear Politics, which would be the best performance by a third-party candidate in 20 years.

The problem is that 9%, aside from not being enough to win the election, is also not enough for Johnson to make the televised presidential debates alongside Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. And it is very important that he does.

“There’s no way that we win if we’re not in the presidential debates,” Johnson said on Saturday. His supporters know that too.

“Let him debate, let him debate,” was a recurring chant during his rally at the Marriott hotel.

To be included in the debates – the first is on 26 September – candidates have to reach 15% in an average of mid-September polls by ABC-Washington Post, CBS-New York Times, CNN-Opinion Research Corporation, Fox News and NBC-Wall Street Journal.

Even before Thursday’s debacle, Johnson was lagging in those surveys. A 6 September poll by CNN/ORC had him at just 7%; in a Fox News poll from 31 August he was at 9%. His emergence as a somewhat viable third-party candidate, however, has led to clamor for the threshold to be dropped.

Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, 2012 Republican candidate Mitt Romney and former California governor and Predator star Arnold Schwarzenegger are among those who have criticised the process.

Johnson isn’t going quietly. In September last year, the Libertarian and Green parties filed a lawsuit against the Commission on Presidential Debates, demanding that candidates who are on the ballot in enough states to have a chance of securing 270 electoral college votes, and are eligible to serve, be included. In August, it was dismissed by a federal judge.

We’re contrary to the other candidates. All they do is wanna kill each other. It’s about presenting a rational thought Gary Johnson

If Johnson does get to debate – and he has just spent $3m on television advertising in an attempt to raise his numbers – he will be up against two historically unpopular politicians. He would be able to offer himself as a more palatable alternative.

“We’re so contrary to the other candidates,” he said. “All they do is get up there and wanna kill each other. It’s about presenting a rational thought on all the issues of the day.”

One of Johnson’s well-known issues of the day is his attempt to legalize marijuana. He is the only presidential candidate who admits to being a regular cannabis user (he likes edibles best) although he has stopped using the drug during his campaign, and says he would not partake if elected president.

Johnson’s openness toward drug use has earned derision from some of the rightwing media, despite his extolling the virtues of fiscal conservatism on the trail. He would scrap the Affordable Care Act and he told the crowd on Saturday he wanted to see the sharing economy – the idea behind things like AirBnB and Uber – expanded to all types of business.

“It’s Uber everything. It’s Uber electrician, it’s Uber plumber, it’s Uber doctor,” he said, to cheers.

‘I’d be the compromise’

Johnson gestures as he speaks with the media. Photograph: Bryan R. Smith/AFP/Getty Images

The last time a third-party candidate took part in presidential debates was 1992. Ross Perot, a billionaire businessman running as an independent and focused on balancing the federal budget, debated Bill Clinton and incumbent president George HW Bush.

Perot was in a far stronger position than Johnson. In June 1992, he actually led the polls – he had 39% in one Gallup survey – and was able to use his vast fortune to buy up half-hour blocks of TV time. But even with these advantages, Perot ended up with 18.9% of the vote – a lot, but not enough to secure any electoral college votes, let alone the 270 needed to win.

Johnson might not have to win 270 either. One of his planned routes is as unorthodox as his open discussion about the best marijuana highs. He believes he can become the next president by essentially spoiling Clinton and Trump’s chances.

He told the New Yorker in July that he was aiming to win a swathe of states in the west – including his home state, Utah and the Dakotas – and thus prevent Clinton or Trump from reaching the 270 electoral college votes needed to win. If no candidate reaches that total, the House of Representatives decides who will be the next president.

“Democrats are not going to cross over the line to change to Trump, and Republicans are not going to go over the line to support Clinton. They’re going to have to compromise, and I’d be the compromise,” Johnson said.

Tom Tancredo, a five-term US congressman from Colorado, ran for governor as a third-party candidate in 2010. He won 36.4% of the vote for the Constitution party, beating the Republican candidate, Dan Maes, into third.

He will not become president. There’s nothing he can do. Going on national TV and saying ‘What is Aleppo?’ didn’t help Tom Tancredo

Still, Tancredo said, it was “next to impossible” for a third-party candidate to reach the White House.

Johnson “will not become president. There’s nothing he can do,” Tancredo said. “And going on national TV and saying ‘What is Aleppo?’ didn’t help him.”

Aside from the Aleppo debacle, Tancredo said “the party structure is so entrenched that unless there are incredibly amazing circumstances that develop, you’re not going to overcome that structure”.

In Tancredo’s case, those circumstances were a particularly weak Republican candidate.

“By the last week of the campaign, every Republican elected official at almost every level had made an announcement in support of me over the Republican candidate,” he said.

Despite that backing, 11.1% still voted for Maes and the Democrat John Hickenlooper won with 51% of the vote. Some voters are almost impossible to convince, Tancredo said. “They see the ‘R’ and they vote for the ‘R’ and that’s all there is to it.”

Rick Tyler, a Republican strategist and former Ted Cruz aide, said there was nonetheless a desire for an alternative.

“The race is to see if Hillary Clinton can assemble more people who dislike Donald Trump than Donald Trump can assemble people who dislike Hillary Clinton. But that’s not what people really want to vote for.”

If Johnson can make the debate stage, Tyler said, he will need to find a succinct way to articulate Libertarian values.

“He needs to combine his issues under a broad thematic that government can work in a limited way and to get people to believe there could be an explosion of economic activity that could create jobs.”

As for Johnson’s backdoor path to victory – via a House of Representatives vote – at the moment it seems unlikely.

In a Washington Post-Survey Monkey survey of all 50 states, Johnson’s best performance was in his home state, New Mexico, with 25%. But Clinton had 37% of the vote there and Trump 29%. In Utah, Johnson polled third, with 23%. He failed to break 20% in any other states.

Tyler said he did not believe this was a realistic way for Johnson to become president.

“It’s a pipe dream,” Tyler said. “And I won’t mention what he’s smoking in his pipe.”

Additional reporting by Ben Jacobs

This article was amended on 16 September 2016. Tom Tancredo is a five-term congressman, not a two-term congressman as we originally had it.