Two new polls this afternoon with very different shares for LAB and the Greens

If LAB had been doing better at recent elections then you might say that Survation has got this right. But Corbyn’s party had a miserable set of locals in May followed up by dreadful Euro elections three weeks later when they slipped down to just 13.6% and could not even maintain position as top party in London. They did, of course, hold Peterborough in June but with a share down 17% on GE2017.

At the Euro election YouGov got the Greens almost dead on and were within a point for the LDs and LAB. Survation had LAB on 23% compared with the UK actual of 13.6%. The firm put LDs on 12% compared with a UK actual 19.6%.

Survation was, of course, the most accurate pollster at GE2017 but, as we’ve seen, being top at one is not always a good guide to the future.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB



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