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Photo by Codie McLachlan/The Canadian Press

The premier and prime minister look destined to collide.

But, if it’s clear the prime minister plans to beat the Conservatives with the cudgel of climate change, failing to pursue the expansion of Trans Mountain, after spending $4.5-billion of taxpayers’ money to buy the existing asset, would be a massive U-turn for Trudeau.

As recently as January, he said that diversifying Canada’s oil markets by building a pipeline to the ocean is an “absolute priority”.

Yet, having watched Notley’s failed attempt to promote a pipeline, while trying to please environmentalists, it is conceivable that Trudeau will be persuaded the electoral math demands he come down on one side or other. He remains vulnerable to the accusation from the NDP that climate leaders don’t build pipelines. By mothballing plans to expand TMX he would help steal progressive votes from the NDP and, in all likelihood, govern in perpetuity.

Still, the risks would be enormous.

For one thing, the fight would be totally contrived. The carbon emissions cap was not scheduled to kick in until 2030 and oilsands emissions, at around 70 megatons a year, are well short of the proposed limit.

For another, the move would send many Albertans into a state of apoplexy. While Trudeau may feel he has nothing to lose with voters in the province, does he really want to poke the bear of Western alienation and perhaps spark a national unity crisis?

The premier and prime minister look destined to collide

Then there is the reaction in the rest of Canada. An Ipsos poll last year suggested 56 per cent of respondents across the country support the TMX expansion, with a clear majority backing it even in B.C. How would these voters react to a government that sacrifices economic growth on the nebulous grounds of a cap on emissions that is not set to kick in for another 11 years?