The quality of the forecast provides information about the probability of the respective weather forecast arriving.

In general, our weather forecasts distinguish between the three categories of short-, medium- and long-term weather forecasts.

Forecast quality of short-term forecasts - weather forecast

Short-term forecasts or weather forecasts can be found here in the respective weather month. The short-term forecasts are more detailed in the weather patterns such as wind, rainfall and center of gravity, temperature, sun or cover. These weather forecasts range from 1 to 7 days, with the forecasting quality being very high for day 1 and lower for day 7. Things are different with stable weather conditions - here, too, a high forecasting quality can be given for day 1, which, for example, does not drop as much until day 7 as it does in uncertain weather conditions. Short-term forecasts are marked with the term weather forecast. The following table explains by way of example how the progress of the forecasting quality can look.

Forecast quality of medium-term forecasts - weather forecasts

Medium-term weather forecasts are issued whenever a likely weather event is imminent but not yet certain - thus giving a rough trend beyond the 7th day which direction the weather is more likely to take. In the medium-term weather forecast, the detailed forecasts are rather rough and mainly refer to which weather phenomena can occur. The rough approach increases the forecasting quality compared to the detailed short-term forecast. These medium-term forecasts are marked with weather forecasts. The following table explains by way of example how the progress of the forecasting quality can look.

Forecasting quality of long-term forecasts - weather trend

Long-term weather trends are usually found in the season forecasts, or each month receives at the beginning of the long-term weather trend, which is updated at certain intervals. Long-term forecasts or weather trends are controversial in meteorology, as the probability of arrival is often called into question. Long-term forecasts are extremely crude and include only basic weather trends. This rough grid again increases the forecasting quality compared to the medium and short-term forecasts. These long-term weather forecasts are marked with weather trend. The following table explains by way of example how the progress of the forecasting quality can look.

Weather trend

In addition, there are weather trends that can extend over a much longer period. The weather trends deal exclusively with the temperature trend (too warm / too cold) and the possible precipitation behavior (too wet / too dry). The weather trend is part of our weather trends in the form of long-term forecasts of the respective weather models (experimental basis!).

Learn more about the reliability of a weather forecast on WeatherBonk