The variables one needs to consider when trying to pinpoint MODs valuation are as followes: expected company net profit, percentage of profit sharing, and the ROI that satisfies the market.

Net profit speculations

As Modum may be the first company with such a product (not considering other crypto projects with different markets and solutions regarding logistics as they’re also very new, hence not providing any revenue estimations for Modum) in the field of pharmaceutical logistics, there’s hardly a precedent one can draw upon in order to estimate the company’s revenue.

Seeing how they managed to unexpectedly pull a 5 Billion revenue company on board already (with other NDAs yet to be disclosed), it’s relatively safe to assume that the profit range for the coming (2) years might be at least around 30 million.

Percentage of profit sharing

For this part it is important to keep in mind that the company could easily distribute up to 40% of their profits without compromising their employees pay as they too own (presumably) tokens from previous community votes. Yet it is always best to expect the worst when doing a valuation as this curbs unrealistic expectations; that’s why we’ll adopt a relatively pessimistic payout prognostic of 20%. (similar percentage mentionned in a 2016 presentation by Modum,outdated by now as they did not expect this kind of success this early on).

Payout per token that satisfies the market

Figure 3

Figure 3 shows the average dividend payouts by industry. We could classify Modum as a Technology company, placing it dividend percentage at roughly 3% of a token’s value.

Conclusive estimations based on bad variables

20% of $30M equal to $6M that will be distributed to roughly 20M MOD tokens, meaning that holders get $0.3 in ETH for each token they hold. Expecting this $0.3 to represent 3% of a tokens value would place MOD at $10 a piece.

Yet one needs to keep in mind that these are calculations with pessimistic variable estimations. A more realistic payout of 40% would put the price per token at $20 without changing the the company’s profit variable.

Let’s keep in mind though that Apple paid hardly any dividends, yet I’ve still got to find someone that thinks that investing in them during the 90s would’ve been a bad idea; reinvestments alone let their shares appreciate in value.

The price appreciation of the token is also not taken into account, meaning that an expected payout is enough to push the token well over the $20 mark in the near future. Expected revenue might push the price well above the $40 mark as growth potential for newer companies tends to play a significant role for their market valuation (e.g. Amazon during its first years).

Sources

Check out CaiptainCuc’s reddit post for a better in-depth analysis: https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/7jzocy/modum_future_based_on_fundamentals/ (from before 5B corporate client announcement)

Figure 1: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:C:2013:343:0001:0014:EN:PDF Chapter 9

Figure 2: https://www.startupticker.ch/uploads/Image/Articles/modumsensor.jpg

Figure 3: http://www.dividend.com/how-to-invest/comparing-dividend-stock-sectors-by-yield/