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My article about why and how Turkey should intevene in Idlib which I wrote 3 month ago but couldn’t publish anywhere because my ideas were too “speculative”. After the decleration of the Idlib operation by Erdogan, you could now decide if it was speculative or a good prediction of the future:

Deciphering contours of Turkey’s imminent Idlib operation

Ömer Özkizilcik

Al-Qaeda affiliated Hay‘at Tahrir al Sham increased its dominance over the northwest of Syria after its capture of the strategical Bab al Hawa border crossing to Turkey from its main rival Ahrar al Sham. While US-backed YPG fights against ISIS in Raqqa, Russian-backed regime militias fight ISIS in the east and south of Maskanah and Iranian-backed regime militias fight in the Syrian Desert against US-backed rebels, it is time for Turkey to get the control over Idlib without using its own troops. Turkish-trained rebels in northern Aleppo can create a new anti Al-Qaeda alliance with rebels based in Idlib region to start the fight against Hay’at Tahrir al Sham (HTS). This new alliance with enough foreign support and a well-planned strategy will disband the former Al-Qaeda structure in Idlib area. The emerging safe-haven for HTS in Idlib has to be confronted by Turkish backed rebels, before the entire area will be captured by pro-regime militias.

Turkey offered the US-administration to capture Raqqa with rebels trained by Turkey, but this offer was rejected. The training program for rebels in the Euphrates Shield area is still continuing. Turkey will be able to use these trained forces for any further military campaign in Syria. It seems unlikely that Turkey will start a military operation against YPG in Manbij or Tal Abyad until the Raqqa campaign is finished. Even after the Raqqa campaign, Turkey may not be able to start a profound military operation against YPG. The budget projection of Pentagon for 2018 clearly shows that Pentagon is planning to back YPG after the completion of Raqqa operation. But one thing is certain: When ISIS is eliminated in Syria; the focus will be on Al-Qaeda.

The Future of Idlib

After the former official branch of Al-Qaeda, the Al-Nusra front publically abandoned their link to Al-Qaeda and changed its name to Jabhat Fath al Sham, this move was seen by the US administration as a foolish attempt which does not include any sustainable change of the group. Additionally Jabhat Fath al Sham created a broader coalition called Hay’at Tahrir al Sham (HTS) with other islamist groups and the formerly US-backed Nureddin Zengi Movement. The new formation is led by Abu Jabir, the former leader of Ahrar al Sham. But insiders told the author that he is a “leader under Muhammad al-Jolani”, the former leader of Al-Nusra and the new military leader of Hay’at Tahrir al Sham.

During the creation of Hay’at Tahrir al Sham and afterwards, HTS abolished some Syrian rebel brigades like Jabhat al Shamiya, Suqour al Sham, Festaqem Kema Umirt, Jaysh al Mujahiddeen and the Idlib branch of Jaysh al Islam. Even though 1000s of Ahrar al Sham’s fighters deserted to the new formation of Hay’at Tahrir al Sham, Ahrar al Sham was able to gain more by accepting these abolished brigades as new units of Ahrar al Sham. With these new members, Ahrar al Sham claims to have 25.000 fighters under its control. Since then, tensions between Ahrar al Sham and HTS have not calmed down and the readiness of Ahrar to act against HTS improved. HTS on the other side constantly tries to extend its areal control in the region. Ahrar al Sham, as the strongest rebel faction, stays in the area as the last obstacle for HTS to gain full control over Idlib area. Many units of Ahrar al Sham who defected to HTS returned back to Ahrar al Sham.

More and more, with the increasing control of HTS in Idlib, the region around Idlib is seen as a ‘safe-haven’ for Al-Qaeda. After the defeat of ISIS, the international community will have its new target in HTS. Russian and Iranian backed regime militias may start a campaign to conquer Idlib region with the approval of the international community in the name of “War against Terror”. This campaign will lead groups like Ahrar al Sham, Feylaq as Sham and others to unite with HTS to resist against regime militias. This resistance will lack legitimacy and therefore foreign backing. The Russian-backed regime militias will have to use genocidal tactics to conquer the area which will end in a massive refugee flow towards Turkey. Turkey as the country with the hugest amount of hosted refugees will have to deal with a new massive refugee crisis and will lose its leverage in Idlib area to its enemy in Damascus. Additionally, Al-Qaeda will remain in the area and start a guerilla tactical war which will result in a decade-long insurgency. Revolutionary factions in Idlib may become a terrorist.

Options for Turkey

The biggest fears of Turkey against a military campaign in Idlib area is the possibility of losing a huge number of Turkish soldiers and the danger of retaliations of HTS aliened Al-Qaeda cells inside Turkey with terrorist attacks. If Turkey does not act in Idlib, Turkey will lose its leverage firstly to HTS and then to the regime. Therefore Turkey needs to start a well-planned campaign with the acceptance of the USA and even Russia.

Turkey has trained nearly 10,000 rebels in Euphrates Shield area and the training programme goes on. They are well equipped and learned a lot while fighting under the command of Turkish Special Forces. On 8th of June, the Hawar Kilis Operation Room published a statement demanding HTS to stop its recent aggression in Marat al Nouman, which is located between Idlib and Hama. Some brigades like Festaqem Kema Umirt have fighters in Idlib area and in Euphrates Shield area. One member of Festaqem told to the author that they only wait for Turkey to allow them to cross from Euphrates Shield area to Idlib via Turkey to change the balance of power in their favor.

Turkey has to build up an operation room which includes Euphrates Shield rebels; FSA factions in Idlib area, FSA aligned islamist factons like Feylaq as Sham and the rival of HTS like Ahrar al Sham for better coordination. This alliance would have the main problem of convincing Ahrar al Sham to side with FSA and to combat HTS. The MOM operation room is already trying to unite rebels in the north under the command of the Northern Front Operation Room to challenge the dominant role of HTS in the region. But the main rival of HTS in the region is Ahrar al Sham and they are excluded in this Northern Front Operation Room. The MOM operation room still doesn’t want to work with Ahrar al Sham and Ahrar al Sham itself doesn’t want to work with the MOM operation room.

To convince Ahrar al Sham for a new Turkish-backed anti Al-Qaeda operation, the leadership needs to be given to Ahrar al Sham or at least Suqour al Sham. Suqour al Sham has strong ties to Ahrar al Sham and a good relation to FSA brigades. They could meditate between them. The other point is how Idlib area will be ruled after HTS is dismantled. One of the main arguments of HTS against these groups will be that they will not rule by Sharia law. To be ruled by Sharia law is also a popular demand in the region. By officially declaring that the areas will rule according to the Unified Arab Code of the Arab League which is based on Sharia law, more of HTS would defect and it will become easier to convince Ahrar al Sham which recently adopted the Unified Arab Code.

If the operation doesn’t give Hay’at Tahrir al Sham fighters the ability to defect, the entire campaign will be very costly and rebels would lose a huge amount of well-trained and motivated fighters against the regime and its allies. Therefore, the operation should aim to dissolve HTS and to gain the control over the former HTS-held areas. Many factions inside HTS and even a part of former Nusra would desert rather than kill or be killed in a war against Syrian rebels. Hardliners inside HTS may resist, but their power would be limited. The new anti Al-Qaeda rebel alliance would gain massive international legitimacy and it would become easier for international backers to support them.

In this scenario the role of foreign militias like Turkistan Islamic Party will become important. If these groups side with HTS, the whole operation will get extremely complicated and bloody. Foreign militias are known for their high fighting abilities. The new anti Al-Qaeda rebel alliance will have to make a deal with the foreigners and guarantee them protection in exchange for at least neutrality. For these negotiations, the relations between Ahrar al Sham and foreigner groups like Ketibat Imam Buchari could be useful. The point of air-support for this campaign would also be decisive. Air-support for rebels against HTS would change the balance of military power in favor to rebels, but it would decrease the possibility of defections from HTS to rebels and it will be harder for rebels to justify such an action, especially for brigades like Ahrar al Sham, Feylaq as Sham, Suqour al Sham and it will be an argument for foreigners to fight alongside HTS.

Conclusion

The whole campaign -well-planned and decisive- could take as much time as the tensions in eastern Syria stay high. While USA, Russia and Iran are averted, Turkey would be able to establish a new balance of power in Syria. Strengthened with the Idlib campaign, Turkey can try to turn against the YPG on its borders or try to connect Euphrates Shield area and Idlib area by capturing Afrin. The idea formulated by Ibrahim Kalın, the spokesmen of the Turkish president, to deploy Russian and Turkish forces in Idlib will alienate rebel factions from Turkey and many would rather side with HTS than to work with Russia who bombed them massively over the past months. It would be better to deploy Turkish troops to strategic positions after the defeat of HTS in Idlib region to increase the efforts for a solution in the Syrian crisis.

To sum up, the entire Idlib region will become the next target after the defeat of ISIS. Day by day, HTS is increasing its control over the region. If Turkey does not act against HTS while USA, Russia and Iran are busy in the eastern parts of the country, the Russian and Iranian backed regime allied militias will start a campaign which will have political and humanitarian catastrophe for Turkey. A new formed anti Al-Qaeda alliance of all northern rebels with Turkish backing could change the balance of power in Idlib and even dissolve Al-Qaeda elements in the Idlib region. Nevertheless, it will be not be easy but a well-planned and organized campaign has a high chance to achieve its goals. Local powers in Idlib like Ahrar al Sham, Feylaq as Sham and FSA combined with trained Euphrates Shield rebels and possible defection from HTS may succeed to disband former Al-Qaeda elements in northern Syria without risking a decade-long insurgency by Al-Qaeda.

A succesfull anti Al-Qaeda operation in northwest Syria will also open new opportunities for western countries to increase their influence on the ground and their position at the negotiation table with the Syrian regime and its backers. The main argument of the Syrian regime and its backers to undermine any peace-process will be no longer. The western countries, who only work with the PKK affiliated YPG on the ground, will be also able to diverse their partners on the ground.