Imagine you’re a stock market investor or an analyst whose job it is to advise those investors. How do you put a value on the shares of a publicly listed oil company?

You can estimate the value of the skills of the company’s engineers, managers and other employees. There’s the brand, reputation and the culture of the company to factor in too. There’s also the worth of its equipment and various physical investments to consider.

Yet the bulk of the value of any oil company inevitably derives from its reserves of the black stuff (along with gas and coal) in the ground; assets that are expected to be extracted and sold over time.

But what if you knew that the company would never be able to get these assets out of the ground? What if they were destined to be “stranded”? What would happen to the value of the oil company then?

Some analysts – including the Bank of England – are urging financial markets to start thinking much more seriously about the possibility of tens of trillions of dollars of “stranded assets” in the energy sector and the profound implications for share prices.

Because if governments around the world deliver on their promises to decarbonise their economies and limit the rise in global temperatures this century to 2 per cent above pre-industrial levels, then those assets really can’t see the light of day. Either they will be forbidden from being sold, or there will be no demand for them because we will have new clean means of energy production.

10 photographs to show to anyone who doesn't believe in climate change Show all 10 1 /10 10 photographs to show to anyone who doesn't believe in climate change 10 photographs to show to anyone who doesn't believe in climate change A group of emperor penguins face a crack in the sea ice, near McMurdo Station, Antarctica Kira Morris 10 photographs to show to anyone who doesn't believe in climate change Floods destroyed eight bridges and ruined crops such as wheat, maize and peas in the Karimabad valley in northern Pakistan, a mountainous region with many glaciers. In many parts of the world, glaciers have been in retreat, creating dangerously large lakes that can cause devastating flooding when the banks break. Climate change can also increase rainfall in some areas, while bringing drought to others. Hira Ali 10 photographs to show to anyone who doesn't believe in climate change Smoke – filled with the carbon that is driving climate change – drifts across a field in Colombia. Sandra Rondon 10 photographs to show to anyone who doesn't believe in climate change Amid a flood in Islampur, Jamalpur, Bangladesh, a woman on a raft searches for somewhere dry to take shelter. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable places in the world to sea level rise, which is expected to make tens of millions of people homeless by 2050. Probal Rashid 10 photographs to show to anyone who doesn't believe in climate change Sindh province in Pakistan has experienced a grim mix of two consequences of climate change. “Because of climate change either we have floods or not enough water to irrigate our crop and feed our animals,” says the photographer. “Picture clearly indicates that the extreme drought makes wide cracks in clay. Crops are very difficult to grow.” Rizwan Dharejo 10 photographs to show to anyone who doesn't believe in climate change Hanna Petursdottir examines a cave inside the Svinafellsjokull glacier in Iceland, which she said had been growing rapidly. Since 2000, the size of glaciers on Iceland has reduced by 12 per cent. Tom Schifanella 10 photographs to show to anyone who doesn't believe in climate change A river once flowed along the depression in the dry earth of this part of Bangladesh, but it has disappeared amid rising temperatures. Abrar Hossain 10 photographs to show to anyone who doesn't believe in climate change A shepherd moves his herd as he looks for green pasture near the village of Sirohi in Rajasthan, northern India. The region has been badly affected by heatwaves and drought, making local people nervous about further predicted increases in temperature. Riddhima Singh Bhati 10 photographs to show to anyone who doesn't believe in climate change A factory in China is shrouded by a haze of air pollution. The World Health Organisation has warned such pollution, much of which is from the fossil fuels that cause climate change, is a “public health emergency”. Leung Ka Wa 10 photographs to show to anyone who doesn't believe in climate change Water levels in reservoirs, like this one in Gers, France, have been getting perilously low in areas across the world affected by drought, forcing authorities to introduce water restrictions. Mahtuf Ikhsan

But the lure of short-term profit has a way of obscuring this kind of logic with impenetrable smog. A 1991 public information film produced by the global oil giant Shell has come to light. The video warns explicitly about the extreme weather, floods, famines and climate refugees that are a likely consequence of global warming. The film also noted that the science of climate change was “endorsed by a uniquely broad consensus of scientists”.

Yet none of this stopped Shell, over the following two decades, lobbying against concerted government action to curb carbon emissions and investing heavily in further fossil fuel extraction. “Shell told the public the truth about climate change in 1991 and they clearly never got round to telling their own board of directors,” notes Tom Burke of the environmental think tank E3G.

The lesson of Shell’s film is that it’s naïve to imagine oil companies will take unilateral action that will negatively impact their share price. But what about investors? Might they wise up, force a correction in asset prices and drive a change in corporate behaviour?

That increasingly seems naïve too. At the moment the financial markets are assuming the energy industry’s fossil fuel assets will be extracted and burned, not stranded.

The United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change, signed in December 2015, was hailed by the environmental campaigner Al Gore as the moment when “the community of nations finally made the decision to act”. But there has been no fundamental readjustment of energy stock prices since then. Indeed, the imminent flotation of a tranche of Aramco, the Saudi state oil giant, is widely expected to create the most valuable company on the planet.

Climate change protests around the world Show all 25 1 /25 Climate change protests around the world Climate change protests around the world People rally to promote climate protection in Rome, Italy Climate change protests around the world Hundreds of demonstrators gather in front of City Hall in Los Angeles, California EPA Climate change protests around the world People hold hands to form a human chain during a gathering called by ecologist organisations in Marseille, southern France, to protest against global warming a day ahead of the United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP21) held in Paris Climate change protests around the world Demonstrators clash with French riot police during protests on Place de la Republique, ahead of the COP21 World Climate Change Conference 2015 in Paris, France Climate change protests around the world Demonstrators clash with French riot police during a protest on Place de la Republique ahead of the COP21 World Climate Change Conference 2015 in Paris, France Climate change protests around the world A group of people perform during a rally to promote climate protection in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Climate change protests around the world A protester sits next to his sign that reads 'Monsanto the Devil Incorporated ' as he joined hundreds of demonstrators who gathered in front of City Hall in Los Angeles, California EPA Climate change protests around the world Environmentalists dance during a protest near the Place de la Republique after the cancellation of a planned climate march following shootings in the French capital, ahead of the World Climate Change Conference 2015 (COP21), in Paris, France Reuters Climate change protests around the world People protest next to characters dressed as wild animals during a march against climate change near the Monument to the Revolution, in Mexico City AP Climate change protests around the world Protesters carries a banner while they take part in a protest about climate change at New York City Hall steps in lower Manhattan, New York Reuters Climate change protests around the world People take part in a protest about climate change around New York City Hall at lower Manhattan, New York Reuters Climate change protests around the world People rally to promote climate protection in Piazza Castello, Turin, Italy Climate change protests around the world A woman holds a globe during a protest for the global climate day in Lugano, Switzerland Climate change protests around the world Yemenis hold banners as they participate in the Global March for Climate in the old city of Sanaía, Yemen Climate change protests around the world Protesters dressed as Santa Claus take part in a protest about climate change at New York City Hall steps in lower Manhattan, New York Reuters Climate change protests around the world People gather at the Legislative Palace in Montevideo, during the Global Climate March to demand action on climate change telling world leaders on the eve of a crunch UN summit that there is "no planet B". From Sydney to London, humid Rio to chilly New York, at least 683,000 hit the streets in 2,300 events across 175 countries at the weekend, co-organiser and campaign group Avaaz said, calling it the largest number of people to protest over climate change all at once Getty Images Climate change protests around the world Climate change protests around the world Demonstrators participate in the Global March for Climate in Athens, Greece Climate change protests around the world A man wearing a Bernie Sanders mask leads hundreds of demonstrators who marched near City Hall in Los Angeles, California EPA Climate change protests around the world Patricia Hauser joined hundreds of demonstrators who gathered in front of City Hall in Los Angeles, California Climate change protests around the world A woman holds a poster of a sick Earth as she joined hundreds of demonstrators who gathered in front of City Hall in Los Angeles, California EPA Climate change protests around the world Hundreds of demonstrators march around City Hall in Los Angeles, California EPA Climate change protests around the world A demonstrator holds cut-out of US Democratic Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders as she joined hundreds of demonstrators who gathered in front of City Hall in Los Angeles, California EPA Climate change protests around the world George Patten holds a sign that reads 'No Fracking Ever!' as he joined hundreds of demonstrators who gathered in front of City Hall in Los Angeles, California EPA Climate change protests around the world Gabrielle Sosa wears 'Rising Sea Levels' sign as she joined hundreds of demonstrators who gathered in front of City Hall in Los Angeles, California EPA

The state of politics in the most intensive per capita user of fossil fuels among the large advanced economies – the US – is hardly propitious either. It is true that a proposal for a simple domestic carbon tax has recently been presented to the White House by a group of senior Republican statesmen, including James Baker, George Shultz and Henry Paulson. And Donald Trump’s Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, a former boss of Exxon Mobil, has in the past advocated such a tax, which economists agree would provide an immensely powerful incentive for firms to reduce emissions.

But other elements of the Trump White House and the Republican Party are preparing to roll back the moves taken by President Obama to reduce US carbon emissions through a regulatory clampdown on energy firms. Scott Pruitt, the new head of the Environmental Protection Agency appointed by Trump, is a climate change sceptic who sued the EPA more than a dozen times when he was Oklahoma attorney general. Trump himself has dismissed climate change as a hoax, designed by the Chinese to disadvantage American industry.