The window to win this war is about seven to 14 days.

If the United States intervenes immediately on the scale that China did, our death toll could be under 100,000. Within three to four months we might be able to begin a return to more normal lives.

There are five top priority areas for action:

Public Health Measures

Many seriously affected states have led the way by closing schools, bars, restaurants and nonessential businesses and by issuing shelter-in-place orders. Unfortunately, because this is not uniform across the country, states that do so are experiencing economic distress while still facing threats from neighbors that are slower to put restrictions in place. States that have so far had relatively low levels of Covid-19 could pre-empt stress on their health systems by acting now.

President Trump needs to immediately order the closing of all schools and nonessential businesses and impose a shelter-in-place policy for the entire country. The majority of the population is already experiencing some version of this protocol or feeling the effects economically; we need to standardize these protocols for the full public health impact.

If these measures are complied with fully, then we may be able to lift them slowly in two to three months, when the percentage of people infected has plateaued and the number of new infections is near zero.

The president needs to establish a system of social pressure for local governments to wield to enforce physical distancing strictly but compassionately. He must order mayors to close most streets to vehicular traffic to make them pedestrian spaces, open enough for Americans to be outside at a safe distance. Exceptions can be made for traffic with a clinical purpose (going to a doctor’s office or pharmacy).