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THIS MODEL WORKS. DAVID? DAVID: THIS NEW MODEL IS BASED ON WHAT WE HAVE LEARNED SO FAR ABOUT HOW THE VIRUS SPREADS AND HOW EFFECTIVE OUR LOCKDOWN MEASURES HAVE BEEN AT STOPPING THE SPREAD. LET’S CONSIDER TWO SCENARIOS, ONE GREEN, ONE ORANGE. UNDER THE GREEN SCENARIO, CURRENT RESTRICTIONS STAY IN PLACE THROUGH, SAY, MAY 25, A WEEK LATER THAN THE EXTENSION ANNOUNCED TODAY BY GOVERNOR BAKER. UNDER THIS SCENARIO, STARTING MEMORIAL DAY, MASSACHUSETTS BEACHES WOULD AGAIN BE PACKED. BUSINESSES START BACK UP, AND PEOPLE COME TOGETHER TO PRAY. >> IF WE LIFT RESTRICTIONS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS, WE ARE AT RISK OF BRINGING BACK MORE INFECTIONS IN THE COMMUNITY. DAVID: JAG CHHATWAL IS ONE OF THE SCIENTISTS AT MASS GENERAL WHO DEVELOPED A NEW COMPUTER MODEL WHICH PREDICTS THAT LIFTING RESTRICTIONS BY MEMORIAL DAY WOULD LEAD TO A SPIKE IN COVID-19 DEATHS AND HOSPITALIZATIONS BY SOON AFTER JULY 4. >> BECAUSE ACTIVE CASES ARE OUT THERE IN THE COMMUNITY. AS PEOPLE START INTERACTING MORE, DISEASE IS GOING TO SPREAD. DAVID: UNDER THE GREEN SCENARIO, BY THE END OF AUGUST, VIRUS DEATHS IN MASSACHUSETTS WILL SURPASS 27,000, NINE TIMES THE CURRENT LEVEL. AND THE STATE WOULD NEED SEVEN TIMES ITS CURRENT SUPPLY OF HOSPITAL BEDS. ON THE OTHER HAND, UNDER THE ORANGE SCENARIO, THE CURRENT RESTRICTIONS LAST THROUGH AUGUST 31. BEACHES, BUSINESSES, AND CHURCHES WOULD ALL REMAIN EMPTY THROUGHOUT SUMMER. DEATHS IN THE STATE STAY UNDER 5000, AND HOSPITALS COULD EASILY HANDLE THE SURGE. >> OUR MODEL IS SHOWING THAT IF WE CONTINUE WITH EXISTING RESTRICTIONS, WE WILL SEE THE CASES DECLINING. BY THE END OF JUNE, WE EXPECT THE NUMBER OF CASES GO BELOW 100. DAVID: THE MODEL MAKERS ALSO CONSIDERED A THIRD SCENARIO, WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE RESTRICTIONS GOT EVEN TIGHTER, LIKE IN CHINA AND ITALY. UNDER THAT SCENARIO, THE DIFFERENCE BET

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The stay-at-home advisory in Massachusetts is set to expire in less than a week after two months under a state of emergency, but reopening too soon could have a devastating effect.More than 1,500 new COVID-19 cases and 104 deaths were reported Monday. It was another drop in cases from the day before. Gov. Charlie Baker said hospitalizations due to the virus appear to have leveled off in the state.Boston Mayor Marty Walsh said the city will not be reopening Monday.As officials consider extending the advisory statewide, modeling from Massachusetts General Hospital shows lifting that order at the end of May — in four weeks — could result in more than 40,000 deaths by the end of the summer. The prediction is much lower if it's lifted in eight weeks, with about 5,600 deaths. "If we lift the restrictions in the next couple of weeks we are at risk of bringing back more infections in the community,” MGH scientist Dr. Jag Chhatwal said. "Our model is showing that if we continue with existing restrictions, we will see the cases declining."Chhatwal said the simulator is powered by an infectious disease model that looks at the number of active cases, transmission rates, as well as the amount and rate of testing.He believes the data shows that under our current restrictions, death rates from the virus can drop below 5,000 by the end of the summer. If we lift them too soon, he said it may be 10 times that."What we're observing from the model is that we are right at the peak time. Things may be slowing down from this point onward, that's a good sign but that does not mean that we should be lifting any restrictions at this point,” he said.The doctor admits the simulator does have to take in a multitude of variables and that the numbers can always change. However, given where we are now, he does not see light at the end of this pandemic tunnel."I don't see that, unfortunately, at this point. We need effective treatment, we need a vaccine, which is effective and we need people have access to the vaccine until that time it will be a new normal,” Dr. Chhtwal said.Dr. Chhatwal said what we also need is a national coronavirus policy. He believes that with states reopening on their own time frame, it will only cause the virus to spread like it did in the first place -- from state to state.Baker says he will decide this week whether to extend the stay-at-home advisory. He has indicated that he does not believe the state is where it needs to be to reopen.