Parkland shooting could be 'tipping point' in 2018 races

Republican candidates for governor have plenty to worry about if the outcry from student survivors of the Parkland high school shooting massacre turns into a powerful grass-roots movement rather than a passing election-year radar blip.

Democrats traditionally turn out in fewer numbers in off-year elections, which has helped the Republican Party keep an iron grip on the Governor’s Mansion since 1998, when Jeb Bush first was elected. But political experts say the killing of 14 students and three teachers Feb. 14 at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School could make gun control a defining issue of the campaign and help Democratic contenders.

“The times have clearly changed,” said Susan MacManus, political science professor at the University of South Florida. “And the activism of the students and their parents and grandparents and everyone else has made this a bigger issue and a much more politically impactful issue. I think it has ramifications for any partisan race from the top of the ticket down to local races. The message is loud. And Republicans will ignore it at their own peril.”

More stories from the NeverAgain rally:

►Thousands of students descend on Florida Capitol to demand gun control

► Invoking the memory of their lost classmates, Parkland students urge legislative action on guns

► A day for students to say, 'Never again' at Capitol

► FAMU students feel impact of gun violence, march to support Douglas students at Capitol

► Florida State students march for tighter gun laws

► Local athletes, coaches reflect on Douglas High shooting, #NeverAgain rally

Two top Democratic candidates for governor — Mayor Andrew Gillum and Orlando area businessman Chris King — took part in Wednesday’s rally for stricter gun-control laws at the Capitol. King chartered buses from Central Florida to help people get to the rally.

Gillum took a visible role, leading the March Against Gun Violence from Westcott Fountain at Florida State University to the Old Capitol. The procession of young people, from college students to out-of-town high schoolers, at one point stretched from downtown to campus. They waved signs and chanted, “This is what democracy looks like!”

“You’re speaking for those 17 lives that were unnecessarily and avoidably snuffed out,” Gillum told the crowd of hundreds before the march began. “You’re speaking for the kids and the generation of tomorrow so that they don’t have to take the very same march that you’re taking today.”

The other two major Democratic candidates for governor, former Congresswoman Gwen Graham and former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, did not participate in the day’s events in Tallahassee. Graham was unable to attend, her campaign said without explanation. She visited Parkland in the days after the shooting, meeting with law enforcement and speaking with students and Broward teachers.

Levine planned to visit Tallahassee on Monday as part of a “Rally to Tally for Gun Reform” at the Capitol. His All About Florida political committee launched a $725,000 ad buy in Florida’s major media markets, Tallahassee included, in response to the school shooting. Levine, standing in front of a school bus in the “We Will” ads, calls the Parkland shooting “a wake-up call we can’t ignore.”

“We need reasonable gun regulation, better background checks and a permanent ban on assault rifles,” he said. “And if the Legislature won’t do it, we will.”

Meanwhile, a Super PAC founded by former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords is buying airtime to attack Gov. Rick Scott for signing a bill in 2011 blocking doctors from asking patients about their guns, the Tampa Bay Times reported. The 11th Circuit Court of Appeals later struck down the law. During a CNN town hall on Wednesday, Scott’s likely rival in the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Bill Nelson, criticized him for giving incentives to companies making AR-15s and similar weapons in the state.

Scott, who declined an invitation to appear on the show, met Wednesday with students from Stoneman Douglas High School. He is expected to roll out his own school safety proposals Friday. Scott, who has an A-plus rating from the NRA, has said all options are on the table.

Kevin Wagner, political science professor at Florida Atlantic University, said it’s too early to tell whether the nascent #NeverAgain movement will mark a political turning point.

“Part of the problem is that in the moment, it seems like this could be one of the defining pivotal issues in the governor’s race,” he said. “But it’s February. And a week in politics is forever. Six months is a strikingly long time. We’ve had horrific shootings in the past, including one in Orlando, and sometimes the energy behind the political push doesn’t last as long as you think it will. Some think this one is different, and perhaps it is. But it’s really hard to know.”

Political science experts said the issue will cut both ways — Second Amendment advocates are sure to be energized as lawmakers debate the issue in the closing weeks of session and candidates wrestle with it in the lead up to the election.

“One of the running themes on this issue has always been that Second Amendment and pro-gun rights supporters tend to be more easily activated on these issues while gun control proponents tend to have a number of issues that motivate them,” Wagner said. “It almost certainly would cause intensity on both sides of the issue. If it becomes an essential issue, you’ll see turnout increase on both sides.”

Aubrey Jewett, political science professor at the University of Central Florida, said past mass shootings, including the slaughter of 49 people at Orlando’s Pulse nightclub in 2016, didn’t lead to change. But he said it’s possible a tipping point has been reached with the Parkland shooting.

“Democrats have been calling for more gun control ... and largely they’ve been ignored in Florida,” Jewett said. “They don’t have any power to make any changes on their own because Republicans are in power. So one would think it would probably be helpful to whatever Democratic candidates that are out there and pushing this and might hurt Republicans in the general election. But I don’t know that it will.”

Contact Jeff Burlew at jburlew@tallahassee.com or follow @JeffBurlew on Twitter.