Photo: Paul Rudderow

The more things change, the more things stay the same.

Despite some shiny new pieces in the lineup and the promise of a new tactical system, once again the Union disappointed in a loss to Toronto FC — their ninth loss in an eleven-match winless streak against the Canadian champions.

One match in a new tactical system isn’t enough data to get a complete understanding of how the Union’s new 4-4-2 diamond shape, high-pressing tactics, and revamped personnel will end up working this year.

But even though it’s just one data point, there’s quite a bit we can scratch out of this match.

Like a window in your heart

The starting XI had its fair share of surprises. Some make sense due to injuries suffered in preseason — notably Sergio Santos, who missed several preseason matches, was left out for Cory Burke.

Other choices made… less sense. The newfangled diamond midfield seemed extremely bereft of steel (and I’m not just talking about Bethlehem products). Haris Medunjanin as the base of the diamond is fine if he gets some protection. Ilsinho is… not that protection. (More on the Medunjanin problem later.)

How to explain these choices? Think about it this way. Union manager Jim Curtin essentially deployed the same set of players he would have used in last year’s 4-2-3-1, just in a different shape. This seems to be, in essence, Curtin preferring the personnel he trusts over tactics. Ray Gaddis gets the start over Olivier Mbaizo, even though Mbaizo is likely a better fit in this system. Medunjanin and Ilsinho start in roles better occupied by players who have more defensive stability. Consequently, one open question after Saturday’s match is whether Curtin will in fact tweak his lineup to better fit the shape and tactics that he and Ernst Tanner have agreed to use this season.

And here we come to the Derrick Jones situation. It is clear, if you listen to how Curtin speaks about Jones compared to most of the players on the team, that Curtin does not trust the Academy product. He seems to hold him to an impossibly high standard in order to earn a start — something to the effect of “he needs to dominate in training every single day” on the Philly Soccer Show last week. Obviously Curtin sees Jones more than I do, but it’s also true that the Union won two of Jones’s three starts last year, and he was the best player in blue in the third game.

Despite the talk about a youth movement, Curtin still prefers an ancient midfield — the average age of Philly’s starting four was 31.5. If Jones can’t crack the 18 with the club this starved of players who have his skillset, something is seriously wrong. At the very least, he deserves the opportunity to either sink or swim.

That right side has to work hard all night

Though the finishing wasn’t there for the Union, there are positives to take away from an attacking performance that produced a decisive advantage in shots on goal (17 to 8).

Last year’s Union tilted pretty significantly to the right.

With two midfielders in Borek Dockal and Alejandro Bedoya who preferred to drift right, a tricky winger in Ilsinho, and a right back who loved to combine with all three in Keegan Rosenberry, the Union tended to find most of their joy down the right-hand side, with Fafa Picault seemingly isolated over on the left.

This pattern wasn’t as apparent in the Toronto game, and there are a few reasons why. One, of course, is that the fullbacks are different. Gaddis isn’t anything like Rosenberry offensively, and Kai Wagner looks to be an upgrade over Gaddis from an attacking perspective on the left. You can see this with a look at their heat maps, with Wagner much more involved than his veteran counterpart.

Another is that the two-striker system seemed to offer the Union a more diverse way of attacking a defense. Rather than pinging a ball to C.J. Sapong to then turn out to the wings, both Picault and Burke made themselves available as targets. Their heat map, too, is relatively balanced on both sides of the pitch.

Although Marco Fabian leaned slightly to the right side, it wasn’t as extreme as what we were used to seeing last year. These factors, taken together, led the Union to mount a relatively balanced attack at the Toronto goal, with 36% of attacks coming down the left side and 40% coming down the right side.

Hopefully, this is a sign that the 2019 Union will be less predictable in their attacking play than the previous edition of the club.

If you be my bodyguard…

Unfortunately, we now have to talk about Haris Medunjanin.

I’m not going to beat the point to death, mostly because Matt Doyle over at MLSSoccer.com summed it up nicely.

Armchair Analyst: How Philly’s 4-4-2 asks Medunjanin & Fabian to track late runs – and how they didn’thttps://t.co/lAhHXQMwCa — Matthew Doyle (@MattDoyle76) March 4, 2019

I’m not as inclined to blame Fabian here — in both goals, Bradley is clearly Medunjanin’s man, and he just switches off completely to allow fairly easy goals.

Medunjanin does bring a lot to the side offensively, and it seems from Curtin’s postgame praise that the Bosnian isn’t leaving the lineup entirely. Given that he’s not likely to suddenly develop defensive tenacity, the best solution is likely to bring in a different player at either the base of the diamond (shifting Medunjanin to the left and Bedoya to the right) or on the right who can provide something different. Candidates at the base include Jones and Warren Creavalle, while Brenden Aaronson and Anthony Fontana are options on the right (as are Jones and Creavalle).

The status quo, however, cannot stand.

Help you learn to help yourself

This iteration of the Union promised tactical flexibility, and we got it with the desperation switch to a 3-5-2 once Toronto had established a two-goal edge.

It’s tough to say much about the way this worked in practice. The Union drew a penalty from this shape and had a shot cleared off the line by Aurelien Collin’s evil twin, Laurent Ciman. They also looked mostly ineffective from the 80th minute on and ended up conceding the final goal thanks to a defender playing out of position. Some positives, some negatives.

It’s worth pointing out here how having a destroyer in the midfield also tracks neatly onto a switch to the 3-5-2. The way the Union ran it on Saturday, Kai Wagner ended up playing as a third center back rather than as a wing back. This is where he was when Nick DeLeon forced him into a turnover that led directly to the third goal. If you have a player like Jones or Creavalle on the pitch already, one solution is to drop that player between the two center backs and play in a quasi-stopper role. The benefit is that this pushes a player like Wagner up to a more natural wing-back role, where he can both provide width in the attack and offer some defensive cover. The way the Union ran it on Saturday, Wagner is taken out of the attack, and doesn’t get much support from Picault in an out-of-position wing back role.

At this point, the 3-5-2 is quite an experimental look. It will be interesting to see whether the Union return to it as the season progresses.

Hello darkness, my old friend

From a macro perspective, this match continued two disturbing trends.

Last year’s Union tended to come up small in big moments — the U.S. Open Cup final, the two matches against NYC FC. A home opener isn’t on the same level, of course. But having brought in a record signing, promising a newfound tactical flexibility that would allow the Union to make a run to the top of the Eastern Conference, and facing an opponent that should have been ripe for the picking, the team wilted. Bad defensive lapses and an inability to finish cost the Union not just a result — but also a chance to start out on the right foot with an understandably skeptical fan base.

The specter of another slow start, too, haunts the Union. The 2017 and 2018 sides both started extremely slowly — the 2017 side started 0-4-4 and didn’t manage a win until May, while the 2018 team also huffed and puffed until the middle of May (2-5-2 for 8 points in nine matches). With a murderous schedule over the next few weeks that includes road dates with Sporting Kansas City and Atlanta United followed by a home clash with the pesky Columbus Crew, the Union will need to up their level quickly to avoid digging a major hole.