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Lawmakers have less money than they'd previously thought to work with in the budget for fiscal years 2016, 2017 and 2018 under new estimates released on May 17, 2016.

(File photo)

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LANSING, MI -- Michigan won't get as much tax revenue as it thought it would this year, according to a revised estimate released by the House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency and Department of Treasury Tuesday.

The three bodies meet twice per year to estimate how much revenue the state can expect. At a January conference the parties agreed on estimates for the current fiscal year, FY 2016, which runs from Oct. 1, 2015 through Sept. 30, 2016.

But a few months down the road those estimates looked a little too rosy. The parties revised them downward by $174 million, bringing the total amount of general fund and school aid fund the state is working with this fiscal year to $21.8 billion.

A big factor in the downward revision was the Corporate Income Tax. Collections on that tax were lower than anticipated for two reasons: retail sales are down and corporate profits are down in the last two quarters. Passed as part of 2011 tax changes, it's a relatively new tax for fiscal experts to try and predict.

"It's the world of a forecaster that you've got to deal with volatility. Corporate Income Tax is tied to corporate profits, which tend to be more volatile with the economic cycle than everything else," said State Treasurer Nick Khouri. "...It's just the nature of the Corporate Income Tax, and it's something we'll get better at forecasting as we get a little more detail on what's driving the Corporate Income Tax."

The consensus agreement also revised revenue forecasts down by smaller amounts for FY 2017 and FY 2018.

Each agency came up with its own estimate coming into the conference. Here's what those were:

House Fiscal Agency

The House Fiscal Agency projected that total revenue -- general fund and school aid fund -- for FY 2016 would be $149 million lower than January's number.

Senate Fiscal Agency

The Senate Fiscal Agency predicted that for FY 2016 combined general fund and school aid fund dollars would total $21.8 billion. That is $200.7 million below the revenue estimate the parties arrived at in January.

Gov. Rick Snyder administration

The Michigan Department of Treasury had the most optimistic take on Michigan's revenue picture for the rest of FY 2016. The department predicted the combined school aid fund and general fund revenue to be $69.3 million below the January consensus revenue estimate.

Emily Lawler is a Capitol reporter on MLive's statewide Impact Team. You can reach her at elawler@mlive.com, subscribe to her on Facebook or follow her on Twitter: @emilyjanelawler.