The hypocrisy and ideology of the Mexican position would indicate the tariffs are certain to take place. Factually, after Mexico has made their “red line” position clear, one could argue there’s no reason to go through the graduated timeline; the U.S. might as well just start applying the full 25% tariff amount on June 10th.

WASHINGTON/MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico said on Monday it would reject a U.S. idea to take in all Central American asylum seekers if it is raised at talks this week with the Trump administration, which has threatened to impose tariffs if Mexico does not crack down on illegal immigration. […] Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said the country was committed to continuing to work to keep migrants from Central America from reaching the U.S. border.

He said, however, that a proposal favored by some U.S. officials to designate Mexico a “safe third country,” which would force Central Americans seeking asylum in the United States to apply for it instead in Mexico, was not an option. “An agreement about a safe third country would not be acceptable for Mexico,” Ebrard told reporters in Washington. “They have not yet proposed it to me. But it would not be acceptable and they know it.” […] Mexican Agriculture Minister Victor Villalobos said in a statement the proposed tariffs would cause economic damage to the agriculture sector of $117 million a month in both countries. He did not specify at what level of tariffs that damage would occur. […] Mexican trade officials said last week that they would retaliate if the tariffs were imposed, although they did not provide details on what the response would be. U.S.-based Mexican-themed fast-food chain Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc estimated a $15 million hit from the proposed tariffs, and said it could cover that by raising its burrito prices by around 5 cents. U.S. business groups have opposed the tariff plan and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is looking at ways to challenge it, including legal options. […] The Mexican economy, which is heavily reliant on exports to the United States, shrank in the first quarter and would reel under U.S. levies that would start at 5% but could reach as high as 25% this year under Trump’s plan. Goldman Sachs economists gave a 70% chance of the tariffs on Mexican imports coming into effect at 5% on June 10. As a proportion of Mexico’s total U.S. exports in 2018 – $347 billion, according to U.S. data – a 5% tariff implies costs of roughly $1 billion between June 10 and 30. (read more)

According to another report: “U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said he told Mexican Economy Secretary Graciela Marquez in a meeting on Monday that Mexico must do more to help the United States address illegal immigration.” The good thing is Wilbur Ross has been activated.

The U.S. economy is $20 trillion. If Mexican imports are $347 billion total, that’s around 2% of our total economy. Yeah, worst case scenario a burrito goes up a nickel… De nada.

Here’s what Mexico will really do. As they previously said, if Trump goes ahead with a full immigration confrontation, Mexico will try to flood the U.S. with illegal aliens and drugs.

Blackmail is the reality of the unspoken Mexican approach at diplomacy.

♦ In August of 2017 President Trump and Commerce Secretary Ross were discussing their trade efforts within NAFTA and renegotiation with Mexico/Canada on a trilateral basis. However, the U.S. administration said if it doesn’t work, they’d scrap the 3-way NAFTA deal and go one-on-one with individual bilateral agreements. In response, Mexican Economic Minister Ildefonso Guajardo threatened to flood the U.S. with South American illegal aliens, criminals and gang members as leverage:

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico could pull back on cooperation in migration and security matters if the United States walks away from talks to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, the Mexican economy minister said in a newspaper report published on Thursday. “If they do not treat [us] well commercially, they should not expect us to treat them well by containing the migration that comes from other regions of the world and crosses Mexico,” Guajardo said. “Or they should not expect to be treated well in collaboration with security issues in the region.” (LINK)

However, Mexican Minister Ildefonso Guarjardo’s threat was mild compared to a threat in January 2017, when another Mexican official promised to flood the U.S. with South American drugs and gang violence:

♦ In a stunning segment on Fareed Zakaria’s CNN broadcast January 29th, 2017, Mexico’s former foreign minister, Jorge Castaneda, states the Mexican government was willing to counter U.S. President Donald Trump policy by unleashing drug cartels upon the U.S. border.

Watch, and more importantly LISTEN, to his words at 02:10 below (Prompted):

This was the most politically explosive admission by the Mexican government in the past decade. Even Fareed Zakaria realized what was being threatened and quickly attempted to redirect the conversation.

Mr. Castaneda was openly admitting a willingness to promote drug trafficking. Additionally, Jorge Castaneda is so proud of the threat, he posted a video of the discussion on his own YouTube page.

With that political mindset at the forefront, President Trump might as well just initiate the full 25%; call up the military; and tighten all border-crossing entry points. Then watch what happens….

(Tweet Link)