The Bundesliga returns on August 24th with the traditional Friday fixture of the champions kicking it off. Bayern Munich will face Hoffenheim at home. There are plenty more fixtures that are interesting in the opening weekend and the season on the whole promises to be a good one. There are new managers for some big clubs, exciting transfers throughout the league and something that the league has never seen before. For the first time in Bundesliga history, Hamburger SV, the dinosaur of German football, will not be in the league after being relegated last season. But let’s talk about the teams that are in the league, and how their season will shake out.

FC Augsburg

2017-18 record: 10-13-11 41 points 12th place. 43 goals for 46 goals against.

Augsburg will begin their eight straight season in the Bundesliga after being promoted for the first time in 2011. They were comfortably midtable and not involved in the battle for relegation. Michael Gregoritsch was the top league goal scorer for the club after coming over from Hamburg before the season. Another player who stood out was Icelandic international Alfreð Finnbogason, who scored 12 goals in 19 league matches, which included two hat tricks in the first half of the season. Rani Khedira was a newcomer in the midfield and did well in his role defensively. Their best run of the season came early in September when they won three in a row, including a 1-0 win over RB Leipzig. They failed to win consecutive league matches at any other point in the season.

They’ll start the season at newly promoted Fortuna Düsseldorf who according to the bookies are going to be the worst side in the league this year. The next match will be tougher, hosting Borussia Monchengladbach before the international break. Then after the break they are away to another team projected to struggle in Mainz. They will need a good result on match day four against Werder Bremen because the next game will be away to Bayern Munich on a Tuesday night. Bayern are always an extremely difficult game, but especially when they are at home during the Oktoberfest period.

Augsburg weren’t huge spenders in the summer transfer window. The most interesting might be Fredrik Jensen, a young Finnish winger who comes over from FC Twente in the Netherlands. Andre Hahn is an experienced Bundesliga forward who has also played for Germany once. His goal scoring return isn’t the best for a striker but he is not a bad player overall. Augsburg’s biggest improvements may come from within, as most of their key players are young and hitting their prime. If Finnbogason can stay fit for the full season and Gregoritsch develops more they should be able to comfortably avoid relegation. I wouldn’t expect them to hit the heights of the 2014-15 season when they finished fifth, but if things break right and these players really gel, it is possible.

Bayer Leverkusen:

2017-18 record 15-10-9 55 points, 5th Place. 58 goals for 44 goals against

Last year’s hard luck fifth place team was Bayer Leverkusen, losing out on the champions league spot to Borussia Dortmund because of a difference of three goals over the season. They were also four goals behind third place Hoffenheim as all three of these teams finished with 55 points. This was an improvement over the prior season, as they slipped down to 12th after things were in disarray in the second half of the season. Leverkusen were a champions league club for most of the past few years and surely would like to have been in it this year, but they will now have a great chance of going far in the Europa League. Heiko Herrlich’s first season in charge of a big club proved to be a successful journey for him and his team can definitely get better in the upcoming season. Initially there were some doubts about him, as the team opened with just two wins in their first eight league matches. Things did get on track eventually as they went unbeaten from September 24th until after the winter break when they had to face Bayern Munich again. The best win of the season was just after that, a 4-1 win away at Hoffenheim.

The outlook for Leverkusen seems pretty bright. Herrlich will be in his second season as manager, and the young talent on the team is among the best in the league. Leon Bailey had a fantastic debut season in the league and is still only 21 years old. Julian Brandt is 22 himself and was a bright spark off the bench for Germany in the World Cup and also had a decent season. He could do with adding some assists to his game as he only had three in the league last season and he should be getting more for the positions he plays in. Kai Havertz had a good year and is only 19. Benjamin Henrichs and Jonathan Tah are 21 and 22 respectively and both have already been capped for the German national team, and Mitchell Weiser joins from Hertha BSC as a player who could play right back or right wing and he’s only 24. There’s so much potential for all these players and they can add to a solid group of experienced players to help mount a great campaign.

The senior players on the team include Karim Bellarabi, and the Bender twins, Sven and Lars. They will add stability to the young players and provide consistency, especially as the Bender twins will probably be needed in a holding midfield role. Bernd Leno left for Arsenal, but Lukáš Hrádecký signed on a free after his good season at Eintracht Frankfurt and many consider him an upgrade at the goalkeeper position. Kevin Volland took a step forward to score 14 goals last year and if he can contribute that many again with the young players stepping up, it would provide a lot of firepower. Leno was the only significant player who left. Long time prolific striker Stefan Kießling retired but he only made eight appearances last year and ended his career as Leverkusen’s all time leader in games played

With the mix of these exciting young players and the older players Leverkusen feel like they are under the radar. Their direct competition all lost significant pieces and some of them have new managers. They could win the race for second place that the league has become, and if things all go according to plan, challenge Bayern at the top of the table.

Bayern Munich:

2017-18 record: 27-3-4 84 points, 1st place. 92 goals for 28 goals against.

What can you say about Bayern Munich? Bayern Munich is Bayern Munich. The most dominant run in the history of the Bundesliga continued last season with a sixth straight title win, and after a little rocky period it was pretty smooth sailing to the top of the table. That rocky period, combined with a disappointing Champions League game against PSG and a reported disconnected between him and the squad, led to Carlo Ancelotti being replaced by Jupp Heynckes. Heynckes returned for a last hurrah to help Bayern easily win the league again. Now Niko Kovač comes in from Eintracht Frankfurt as an unproven manager at the top level. The transition is almost similar to when David Moyes took over at Manchester United, except Bayern’s squad is vastly superior to the rest of their opponents in the Bundesliga.

The squad is not refreshed with new talent, as Leon Goretzka is the only new signing. He replaces the outgoing Arturo Vidal, even though they aren’t completely the same type of midfielder Goretzka is a bit more dynamic and other players can still provide the defensive stability. Some players are returning from loan spells, and it will definitely be interesting to see how much Serge Gnabry plays this year. A newcomer from last season who is still on loan is James Rodriguez, who was very good in his first Bundesliga season. James was pulling the strings often, contributing 2.8 key passes per game, the best in the league. . Robert Lewandowski won the top goalscorer award yet again, and he has shown no signs of slowing down. He did make some noise about Bayern not spending enough during last season and looked like he might want to leave but that talk has died down. With him, the addition of Sandro Wagner, league assist leader Thomas Müller and contributions from several others there is no shortage of goals in this team.

If you had to pick a concern with this team it might be age. Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery are both in their mid 30s and are injured quite a bit. Mats Hummels and Jérôme Boateng are both 29 and looked off the pace at the World Cup, albeit in a very small sample. The players aren’t ancient but there will a few hitting 30 soon and the squad could do with a refresh. A position they could a prospect to would be striker, with Lewandowski at 29 and his backup Sandro Wagner at 30. But this shouldn’t really be a problem for this season.

Overall, this Bayern Munich team is still the strongest in the league, but in theory this might be the best chance for someone to end their title streak. If Niko Kovač fails to carry on the success of his predecessors, a team from the next tier will need to step up and close the 21 point or more gap between them and the top dog of Germany that is FC Bayern Munich.

Borussia Dortmund

2017-18 record: 15-10-9, 55 points 4th place. 64 goals for 47 goals against.

One of those teams that will be looking to pounce if Bayern do slip up is of course the last team besides Bayern to win the league, Borussia Dortmund. They had a roller coaster ride throughout the season and especially in the first half. The summer window was a bit chaotic with Ousmane Dembélé leaving for Barcelona somewhat late on and then using the 105 million euro transfer money to get some replacements for him. Andriy Yarmolenko came in and did not light up the league as they would have liked. There were other ins and outs but despite all the changes and new manager Peter Bosz taking over to start the season, the league campaign got off to a great start. They won six and drew once in their opening seven games, including a 5-0 win over Köln and a 6-1 win over Borussia Monchengladbach. Then things took a turn. Dortmund went nine games without a win in the league, with a 4-0 lead turned into a 4-4 draw at home in the Revierderby against Schalke being a huge blow. They also failed to win any of their Champions League group stage matches, including two against Cypriot club APOEL. After a 2-1 home defeat to struggling Werder Bremen, Peter Bosz was removed from his position. The replacement was Peter Stöger, a curious appointment given he had just been sacked by Köln after having the worst ever start to a Bundesliga season.

The second half of the season or as they call it in Germany, the rückrunde, started with three straight draws in winnable games after Stöger had gotten back on track with two wins in his first two matches. The January transfer window saw Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Marc Bartra leave the club with Michy Batshuayi coming in on loan to fill in at striker. The Belgian was able to score twice on his debut to get Stöger a win over his former club Köln 3-2. Things went fairly smoothly for a while until they went to the Allianz Arena and got thumped 6-0 to Bayern. In the end they narrowly qualified for the Champions League on goal difference and part of the reason was the return of Marco Reus who scored seven goals in his 11 league games.

Reus will be a key player again for BVB, because of the lack of depth at striker. He’s not a classic center forward that you usually think of. There isn’t one of those in Dortmund’s squad. If Reus picks up another injury, who will fill his shoes is not really clear. Possibly Maximilian Philipp, but he hasn’t really ever been a prolific goalscorer and isn’t an out and out striker. The new manager Lucien Favre returns to Germany after having success with Nice in France. He is known for quick counter-attacking football which has been synonymous with the modern day Dortmund. That doesn’t require a big center forward who is good in the air. Thomas Delaney is joining from Bremen will be a good midfield player who isn’t as good in the attacking third but will be important screening the center backs if Dortmund get into matches where there is a lot of back in forth action as many teams in the Bundesliga love to play on the break. Axel Witsel is also joining after having a decent World Cup for Belgium and these two players should really solidify the midfield.

Dortmund are there and thereabouts among the top four teams. I don’t know if they’ve done enough to challenge Bayern Munich in terms of adding to their squad. What they will be counting on is the development of exciting young players like Christian Pulisic, Jadon Sancho and Alexander Isak to add to their attack. And they will need it because nearly 44% of their league goals were from players no longer on the team.

Borussia Mönchengladbach:

2017-18 record: 13-8-13, 47 points, 9th place. 47 goals for 52 goals against.

Who’s the least popular guy at a Borussia Mönchengladbach game? The guy who starts the chant “give me a B”! That joke is bad, even if I was telling it in Germany it still probably wouldn’t get a laugh. Gladbach finished a disappointing 9th place given the players they have available to them. They should have finished above the two teams directly above them, Stuttgart and Frankfurt. A four match losing streak from matchday 20 to 24 dropped them from fifth to tenth and they never really recovered to compete for a European place. They also didn’t score a goal in this stretch. Goal scoring from midfield was an issue. The big three attacking players of Thorgan Hazard, Lars Stindl and Raffael scored 25 of the 47 league goals, with defender Matthias Ginter the next highest scorer with five.

These issues weren’t really addressed in the transfer market. Instead their big purchase was Alassane Pléa from Nice for about 25 million euros. Plea is a quick winger-forward who will fit in with Mönchengladbach’s quick blitzing attacking style, but his goal scoring record isn’t the best for a forward. Jannik Vestergaard was the biggest player to leave in the summer and the center back will have to be replaced internally if no else is brought in before the transfer window slams shut. A player who would be nice to have in the squad is Ibrahima Traoré, made just seven appearances from the bench. He looks to be injured again and a timetable for when he will return is unclear.

While this team has a lot of talented players, it’s tough to see where they will improve. Denis Zakaria and Christoph Kramer are solid central midfield players but their lack of creativity somewhat limits the upside of Gladbach. They will hope that Raffael will be able to make more than 23 starts which will help their attack. Fabian Johnson is another player who if he can make it back to pre injury form and really contribute on the wing. So the upside is there from returning players, and if Hazard takes another step forward maybe this team will push for the Europa League place. It is difficult to see them pushing into the Champions League like they did a few years ago.

Eintracht Frankfurt:

2017-18 record 14-7-13, 49 points, 8th place. 45 goals for 45 goals against

A team that had a fantastic season by their standards was Eintracht Frankfurt, winning the DFB Pokal and finishing in eighth place. The eighth place might have been higher than people were expecting to start the year, but after being as high as third in the middle-late stages of the season, fans might have been wanting more. The club’s form took a dip after it was announced that manager Niko Kovač was going to be joining Bayern Munich after the season, losing four of the final five league games. This would have cost them a Europa League spot, but the victory in the cup final over Bayern clinched qualification. The season ahead will be another interesting one, with a European campaign and a new manager.

Adi Hütter takes over after winning the Swiss Super League with Young Boys. This ended Basel’s long run of dominance and his win percentage in his career is a respectable 58%. A lot of their good work in the transfer market came from buying players that were on loan permanently. These include defender Carlos Salcedo and World Cup standout Ante Rebić . They also added winger Nicolai Müller who infamously injured himself seven minutes into the season last year after scoring a goal for Hamburg and only returned for one more game. Another player who can help sustain their level of success from last year is Marco Fabián, who had terrible injury luck and was only able to make seven league appearances after being perhaps the best player on the team in 2016-17. Two important players the Eagles, or Die Adler in German, lost in the transfer window were the rejuvenated Kevin-Prince Boateng and young winger Marius Wolf. Wolf lead the team in assists with eight, so they could use someone to step up on the creative side. Lukáš Hrádecký is gone, replaced by Danish international keeper Frederik Rønnow who also replaced him at Brøndby.

A player to watch this season is 20 year old Serbian forward Luka Jovic. He scored eight goals in just 929 Bundesliga minutes last season, for a goal about every 116 minutes on the pitch. For a comparison, the league’s second leading goal scorer Nils Petersen scored about every 149 minutes on the pitch. Jovic attracted enough attention to make Serbia’s World Cup squad. The club has an option to buy him from Benfica after his two year loan and if he performs anything like he did last season it will be a no brainer to keep him on board.

The outlook for Frankfurt looks pretty decent. There have been some growing pains showing early with a bad 5-0 defeat to Bayern in the Super Cup at home and a shocking upset in the Pokal to fourth tier side SSV Ulm. We saw Köln struggle after qualifying for the Europa League last season and Frankfurt have to be careful on those weeks where they are playing multiple matches. I would say a 7-9th place finish is a realistic goal again.

Fortuna Düsseldorf

2017-18 record (Bundesliga II) 19-6-9 63 points, 1st place. 57 goals for, 43 goals against

Our first of the promoted sides is Fortuna Düsseldorf, back in the Bundesliga for the first time since 2012-13. They were promoted as champions and it was a pretty easy ride as they were in at least in a playoff spot from matchday three onward. The challenge now is moving up to big time, and trying to retain the status of being a Bundesliga club. Over the past five seasons, only Eintracht Braunschweig went up and down after one season, but that includes anomaly’s like RB Leipzig’s second place finish and even Stuttgart’s seventh last season. The deck is still stacked against these promoted sides, but Düsseldorf have done some business to help themselves stay in the league.

The names and talent of the players brought in from the transfer market are not going overwhelm anyone. Diego Contento is experienced in the Bundesliga having made 49 league appearances for Bayern Munich. Marvin Ducksch will get a chance to show his talent after being a highly regarded prospect in Dortmund’s academy and never really breaking through. Ducksch almost got promoted himself this season with Holstein Kiel before losing in the playoff to Wolfsburg. He had a fantastic return of 18 goalsand 12 assists in the 33 matches last season and at only 24 years old can in theory keep improving. Three players who were on loan at the club last season will be sticking around, Davor Lovren, Benito Raman and Jean Zimmer. One who won’t be in the squad this year is Genki Haraguchi, who performed well in Japan’s World Cup matches and during his second half loan spell. His compatriot Takashi Usami could step into his role as a winger, and contribute even more than his eight goals in just 14 starts last year.

The problem for Düsseldorf will be in defense. Kaan Ayhan is the only center back with experience at any top level, at that was a lot of games off the bench for Schalke a few years ago. Conceding 43 goals in the second division isn’t terrible, but with the attacks of the top clubs that number will obviously be much higher this year. 51% of the possession in the Bundesliga II doesn’t bode well either. Manager Friedhelm Funkel once had a decent level of success with Eintracht Frankfurt when they made the cup final, but his last job in the top flight was with Hertha Berlin way back in 2009-10 and they got relegated that season. Some sports books have made Fortuna Düsseldorf a -125 favorite to be relegated, or 55%. We’ll have to see if they can prove them wrong.

SC Freiburg

2017-18 record: 8-12-14 36 points, 15th place. 32 goals for 56 against.

After coming in seventh place the previous season, Freiburg narrowly escaped the relegation playoff by three points last year. They were unable to capitalize on the higher than expected finish when they lost in the third Europa League qualifying round, and that poor result really started them off on a downward trajectory to start the season. They won once in the first 12 matches, and suffered a few drubbings like 5-0 against Bayern Munich and 4-0 against Bayer Leverkusen. Freiburg sat in 17th place, their low point of the season, until they went on a surprising nine match unbeaten stretch. This had them sitting comfortably above danger until a brutal five game losing streak had them in the playoff zone with three games remaining. They were able to win two of the final three games to avoid playing in the worst game for a Bundesliga club, the relegation playoff.

Looking at the numbers doesn’t make Freiburg look any better. They scored the second fewest goals and allowed the second most. Nils Petersen scored an amazing 15 of their 32 league goals and without him they would surely be looking at relegation. A big win for them in the has been holding on to him, although the market for a 29 year old might not be huge. The ins and outs of the summer haven’t been too inspiring. Marc-Oliver Kempf left and was replaced by former Köln defender Dominique Heintz. Most of the other transfers did not involve a first tema player coming in or going out.

Manager Christian Streich used a number of different formations last year, rotating a lot between a back three and a back four. The most common formations were a 3-4-3 and a 4-4-2. The 3-4-3 conceded 24 goals and the 4-4-2 conceded just 14. The back four might provide more stability if they opt to use that more consistently this season. Freiburg are in for another tough season in all likelihood. They will need Petersen to continue to lift them because if not, it’s hard to see where the goals they need will come from.

Hannover 96

2017-18 record: 10-9-15, 39 points 13th place. 44 goals for 54 goals against.

Hannover would have been happy to stay in the league after a one year holiday in the second tier, but with the way their season started out 13th place feels disappointing. They started out winning three of their first four games, and not losing any of the first six. The standout win was over Schalke 1-0, but none of the other five games were against teams who finished in the top ten. After a 4-2 win over Dortmund on matchday 10, they were flying high in fourth place. Their form fell off after this win and nearly fell off a cliff when they lost all five matches from matchday 24 to 28. Luckily at this point they had basically clinched safety and didn’t get sucked into the relegation scrap. This along with the transactions this summer make Hannover a tough team to predict going into this season.

Three of Die Roten (the Reds) most important players left, and all of them have joined Bundesliga rivals. Salif Sané was perhaps their best player, a commanding center back who also chipped in with four goals. His 5.7 aerial duels won per game was the best in the league and now he will be using that talent at Schalke. The second leading goal scorer on the team last year was Martin Harnik, who also was very important in the 2016-17 promotion year. He is getting on a bit at age 31 but his nine goal is nothing to sneeze for a mid to low table side and will need to be replace. Felix Klaus was deployed in many different roles, from central midfielder to attacking midfielder and sometimes a winger on either side, he proved his use a number of

times. He often provided danger from taking direct free kicks including in the famous win over Dortmund.

These players all needed to be replaced and Hannover have not done too poorly trying to do so. Kevin Wimmer comes in on loan from Stoke, and he will try to get his career back on track in Germany after having success at Köln. He’s not as good of an aerial center back as Sané but he does play an intelligent game which is why he signed for Spurs in the first place. Bobby Wood comes on loan from Hamburg, he’s a speedy American forward who’s goal scoring in the Bundesliga II hasn’t translated just yet but it will most likely be beneficial to not play for the lowest scoring team in the league this year. Genki Haraguchi comes on loan and he can replace Klaus as a bit a jack of all trades playing winger or more centrally. Haraguchi played well for Japan at the World Cup including a goal in the last 16 match against Belgium. Walace is another player from Hamburg and the Brazil international is pretty adept at screening the back four and breaking up opponents passes in his own third. These signings are usually more than a mid table Bundesliga club will make, and it will be interesting to see how they all gel together.

Another thing to look out for will be what formation Hannover will play. The 4-4-2 was the most successful in terms of winning games, as they won four of the six times they used it. I imagine using a back three will be difficult with Sané no longer there in the center to head any balls away. If Hannover’s goal is to be mid table side this year, they have a decent shot of achieving that.

Hertha Berlin

2017-18 record: 10-13-11 43 points, 10th. 43 goals for 46 goals against.

Known as Die Alte Dame or the Old Lady, Hertha Berlin entered the season off back to back Europa League qualifications. This time they actually were able to make it into the group stage, unfortunately that’s as far as they would go. Nevertheless, it’s been impressive to see how they have re-established themselves as a solid Bundesliga club without real danger of relegation after their fifth season back in the top flight. Having a club in the top flight in the capital is important for the Bundesliga as a whole, to show the game off to foreigners who may visit Berlin. The Olympiastadion in Berlin is quite unique as it’s the only German stadium that was not built for football. Let’s look at what the chances are of the fans that go to that stadium will be happy this season.

Tenth place was a down tick from where Hertha finished the last two years. Somewhat surprisingly, their top goal scorer was 33 year old Salomon Kalou. Fans of the Premier League might be shocked to learn that he is still playing at a relevant club and playing well. Another player who stood out for the Old Lady is left back Marvin Plattenhardt, and he was able to make Germany’s world cup team as a result. The other player who excelled in wide areas for Hertha was Mitchell Weiser, but he’s off to Leverkusen now. Davie Selke had ten goals in his debut season and should be the first choice striker. This a team that has some decent talent in their squad.

This talent has one area which desperately needs improving: shots. Hertha only got off 9.4 shots per game last year, the lowest in the league. They perhaps were being very patient as eight percent of their shots came from inside the six yard box, which is up there with the highest in the league. In games when things aren’t going well, shooting from just inside the 18 yard box or even outside the box more may help. If it doesn’t lead to goals directly, it could lead to rebounds or corner kicks which could result in a goal. A problem also could have been lack of creativity in the midfield. Fabian Lustenberger and Per Skjelbred are both solid midfielders but the team could use someone to play through passes instead of looking wide or long most of the time.

Hertha Berlin still have a good team, but I don’t know if the Europa League is in reach this year. The ninth or tenth place spot seems to be where they will fit into the table.

TSG Hoffenheim 1899

2017-18 record: 15-10-9 55 points, 3rd place. 66 goals for 48 goals against

How do you follow up a record high league finish? By finishing even higher the next season. Hoffenheim will be in the Champions League again, but this time they don’t have to go to a pesky playoff round and they will be in the group stage. The transformation of the club since Julian Nagelsmann took over has been remarkable. Since Nagelsmann will be joining RB Leipzig after this season, it’s important for Hoffenheim to establish themselves as a consistent top four contender and build a platform for the next manager to build on. Another thing that would be beneficial to Hoffenheim’s long term prospects is if they can prevent Bayern Munich from taking their best players.

After last season, Bayern decided they needed to take Sebastián Rudy and Niklas Sule from Hoffenheim. This was a blow as these were two of their best players and this really hindered the club at the start of the season. They did get Serge Gnabry on loan in the transfer. Gnabry had an excellent season, he was ranked as WhoScored.com’s sixth best player in the league. He will be returning to Bayern this year, leaving a gap in the squad from a playmaking standpoint. Kerem Demirbay is the man they are looking to fill that void, with his 1.6 key passes per game being higher than Gnabry’s 1.2. However another gap is at forward, with Mark Uth now joining Schalke and Sandro Wagner leaving in January for, guess who, Bayern Munich. No one was really brought in as an obvious replacement for losing these players. Between Gnabry, Uth and Wagner, 31 league goals are no longer with the team. Andrej Kramaric could step in and score more if he starts more than 22 games this year. Joelinton is slated to start as the second forward in the 3-4-1-2 or 3-5-2 formation, but he didn’t exactly light the world on fire with goals playing in the Austrian Bundesliga.

All of these reasons plus the fact that Nagelsmann has already announced that he is leaving this year are why I’m down on this team going into the season. We saw what the announcement that the manager is leaving did for Frankfurt towards the end of last year. The squad depth also looks somewhat thin for being in Europe. Their third place finish also seems a bit deceiving as they hovered between seventh and ninth for a large part of the rückrunde. A reason for optimism would be Julian Nagelsmann, who has proven to be a brilliant young tactician. He has shown in the past that he can still be effective when he loses players, and will need to prove that again if TSG Hoffenheim want to qualify for the Champions League again next year.

FSV Mainz 05

2017-18 record 9-9-16, 38 points, 14th place. 38 goals for 52 goals against.

Germany’s carnival club, or Karnevalsverein, practically pulled out a circus trick to avoid the relegation zone all year, and not having to play in the playoff either. They looked destined for that dreaded playoff before a bump in form and then surprising wins at the end of the season over Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig. They did manage to stay above the automatic relegation spots all season long, thanks to Hamburg and being generally awful at most points of the season. It’s looking like they might be in another fight to stave off relegation this year, as some sports books have them as the third favorite to be playing in the second tier next season. Here are a few reasons why they could be in trouble.

Yoshinori Muto was the team’s leading scorer with just eight goals last year, and he’s moved onto Newcastle. Abdou Diallo played well at center back, so well in fact that he’s signed for Dortmund. Young defensive midfielder Suat Serdar is now with Schalke. Defender Leon Balogun is also gone, and is replaced by talented but unproven Phillipp Mwene. That is a lot of outgoing talent for a side that wasn’t flush with it to begin with. Alexander Hack will be relied upon to play for Diallo. He was solid in his 15 appearances last season is very good in the air. Other than that, it’s tough to see where replacements will come from.

A way for Mainz to improve their results doesn’t necessarily have to do with the players on the pitch, but with tactics and a game plan. Manager Sandro Schwarz will need to create a plan to score goals with the squad he has, and that could come from set pieces. We’ve seen teams in the past overachieve by being able to score from free kicks, corners and even throw ins. Mainz tied for last with nine set piece goals last season, and when your team only has 46% of the possession you need to make the most of these opportunities. Alex Hack could be a good target for these situations, as he won 4.8 aerial duels per match last season. This is something that Mainz should be working on to get the goals they will need to stay in the division.

FC Nürnberg

2017-18 record (Bundesliga II): 17-9-8 60 points, 2nd place. 61 goals for 39 goals against.

Der Club has reached the top flight yet again, and it may be surprising to learn how much history of success this team has. They have been German champions nine times, but only once since the formation of the Bundesliga. Since that happened things haven’t be as good for them, being relegated eight times. They are still a giant club, with a stadium that holds 50,000 fans. History is history though and like fellow promotion club Fortuna Düsseldorf, Nürnberg could find themselves back in division two by season’s end.

Nürnberg got second place last year in the 2.Bundesliga, but they could have easily have finished top as they lost to Düsseldorf on the last day of the season. They boasted the second stingiest defense in the division, with 39 goals conceded in the 34 game season. They also scored the second most goals, with leading scorer being midfielder Hanno Behrens with 14. It was also surprising that the leading assist maker was right back Enrico Valentini with 11. Both of these players were excellent and two of the best players in their league. They will definitely need to be good again because there weren’t many additions to the squad. Robert Bauer was an Olympian in 2016 and is a decent signing to play right back. Christian Mathenia joins from Hamburg and will challenge Fabian Bredlow to be the number one goalkeeper. Törles Knöll had a good goal scoring record for Hamburg II but hasn’t played at the senior level yet.

This team certainly won’t jump off the page as definitely good enough to stay up. The sports books have them at even money to be relegated this year. Something that could be key is home form. With a stadium that holds close to 50,000, the backing of the crowd will need to make Max-Morlock-Stadion a fortress to spur their team on to some good results.

Rasenballsport Leipzig

2017-18 record 15-8-13, 51 points 6th place. 57 goals for 53 goals against.

The most hated club for the other German clubs and the fans is without question RB Leipzig. This youtube video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoPRAAqaA04 done by Tifo gives a great explanation of why the club is hated so much. It boils down to how they are trying to change the establishment that is German football. They see it as corporate greed infiltrating the game, which is very bad for fans. If you go to a game in Germany, you might be shocked that you can get a ticket for only 18 euros and beers and sausages for about three euros each. This is refreshing especially if you come from England, where tickets can cost around 60 to 70 pounds. The fan experience in Germany makes the games very fun.

No matter how well liked they are, the team has played very well in it’s two years in the Bundesliga. After finishing second, expectations were sky high for the second year in the league. 54.5 million euros were spent in the summer, and it paid off to start as they were in second again going into round 14 when they hit a four game winless slide that saw them go into the winter break in fifth. While they ultimately ended up in sixth, they were just two points off of third. One loss turning into a win would have made a disappointing season an acceptable one. Instead of playing on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, they are playing on Thursdays. This facilitated some changes for Die Roten Bullen going into this season.

Ralf Rangnick comes down from his sporting director role to take back his manager position that he had during the 2015-16 promotion season. He has a lot of experience managing in the Bundesliga but hasn’t managed a Bundesliga club since a rather brief spell at Schalke in 2011. He also will have to deal with the loss of Naby Keita, arguably the club’s best player since they’ve been in the top flight. They didn’t sign anyone to replace him, but the club do have a plethora of midfield options to replace him in the squad. One of them would be Kevin Kampl, who averaged two key passes per game but somehow only finished with three assists on the year. Timo Werner’s goal scoring output went from 21 to just 12 last season, I would expect him to be somewhere in the middle of those two numbers this year. He could be playing alongside young French forward Jean-Kévin Augustin who was able to score nine goals in first season in Germany. These two will form a formidable frontline for opponents, especially if they go up against slower defenders.

It will be interesting to see if Rangnick sticks with the unique 4-2-2-2 formation that former manager Ralph Hasenhüttl used a lot last season. An area they will need to address is the defense. They conceded 53 goals in the league, as many as relegated Hamburg. Two of the three signings they made were fullbacks so that where they felt the weakness was. There is promise from young center back Dayot Upamecano, who is on the shortlist for European Golden Boy as the best young player. If these improvements are made, RB Leipzig will be challenging for the top four once again.

FC Schalke 04

2017-18 record: 18-9-7 63 points, 2nd place. 53 goals for 37 goals against

Schalke were able to secure their best league finish since 2009-10 under new manager Domenico Tedesco. The young manager, who’s name in Italian translates to Dominic German, got the job after just 11 games managing Erzgebirge Aue in the second division. After losing three of the first six games, Schalke turned things around and from September 29th till the winter break, they didn’t loss a match. That includes the stunning 4-4 draw at Dortmund after being 4-0 down at half time. That wasn’t the best streak they went on though. From round 23 to round 28 they won all six matches, and kept a clean sheet in the last five. Their stellar defending is really what lead them to the second place finish in the league.

The standout defender for the team and possibly in the league was Naldo. He had the highest average rating for a defender on whoscored.com, he completed 85.7% of his passes, and he even scored seven goals. Now he will be paired with new signing Salif Sané to form a pair of center backs that dominated in the air all season long. Tedesco favored a back three almost exclusively, and if these two are together with Matija Nastasic it will be hard for other teams to break them down. Schalke’s 53 goals was the lowest total for any club in the top six. So they added Mark Uth from Hoffenheim to bolster their attack, he of the 14 goals last year. Exciting winger/forward Breel Embolo should be fully recovered from his bad ankle injury and could add some goals as well. Unfortunately for the club they lost a crucial player in Leon Goretzka, and they lost him to Bayern Munich. The players that could take his midfield spot are Benjamin Stambouli pushing up from his spot in central defense to play central midfield again. Omar Mascarell who joined from Eintracht Frankfurt having only played nine games due to injury. When healthy Mascarell is a good passer of the ball in midfield and is defensively responsible as well. With Nabil Bentaleb and 19 year old Weston McKennie also available, the team’s central midfield is not a weakness.

One player who had a fantastic season was Daniel Caligiuri. He was fourth in assists in the league with 11, and averaged three tackles and two interceptions a game, both good for tenth in the league. These contributions led to Caligiuri being the second highest rated player in the entire league. This was just a great year for a 30 year old player who has mostly been a journeyman and never capped at any international level.

Some of Schalke’s metrics are troubling if trying to predict them to have as good of a season. They only had 47.9% possession, 12th in the league. Of their 53 goals, only 21 were from open play, 14 were from set pieces and 10 were from penalties. That was four penalties more than any other team in the league. These statistics don’t fit the profile of a team that is a true contender. If they can fix these issues, maybe they will make the top four again. But some of their stats seem unsustainable for another year.

VfB Stuttgart

2017-18 record: 15-6-13 51 points, 7th place. 36 goals for 36 goals against.

When you look up a season of two halves in the football glossary, you would probably see an entry about Stuttgart’s 2017-18 season. They were just chugging along, not doing too poorly for a side that had just come back up from the second tier. Until matchday 14, where they lost five of the next six, and didn’t score a goal in the first four. Manager Hannes Wolf lost his job, and Tayfun Korkut took over with the club sitting in 15th. Mario Gómez returned to the club after struggling with Wolfsburg, and it was like a hero had come back home to save the day. He scored eight goals in 16 appearances and the club turned things around. They only lost once of their final 14 matches, and a four game winning streak to end the season saw them finish in seventh. Unfortunately they didn’t qualify for the Europa League with Frankfurt winning the DFB-Pokal, but the fact they were even in contention for Europe, shows how stunning the end of the season was.

A horrid few months with Bayer Leverkusen in 2017 was the last we saw of Korkut before he came in at Stuttgart. His masterful job to end the season was now backed in the transfer market and some interesting players were brought in. Daniel Didavi returns after leaving the club in 2016, and he can add some goals from midfield having scored nine for Wolfsburg last year. Gonzalo Castro was ninth in the league in key passes per game while playing for Dortmund last year. Pablo Maffeo was highly rated as a prospect from Manchester City, and played decently well for Girona in La Liga last season.

Two key returning players will be Benjamin Pavard and Mario Gómez. Pavard quietly had a very solid season at center back, and then was called upon to play right back for France in the World Cup. Even though he scored one of the goals of the tournament, he only scored once for Stuttgart, so don’t race to go put him on your fantasy team. Gomez will be the key for a low scoring team. He only played in 16 games, and he still scored 22% of the team’s goals. Given how few goals Stuttgart scored, seventh was definitely an overachievement. Given some pretty good additions and a manager who was able to get something out of his squad last season, they will likely be safe and could push for another top half finish.

SV Werder Bremen

2017-18 record: 10-12-12, 42 points 11th place. 37 goals for 40 goals against

Werder Bremen’s season basically looks like they were the train that said “I think I can avoid relegation”. That train chugged along and for the first 21 games and possibly a few more, no one really believed it. They removed Alexander Nouri as conductor of the train and installed Florian Kohfeldt as manager. A push of six wins out of eight between rounds 21 and 28 got them over the hill they needed to climb to not be in the bottom three. With a last day victory over Mainz, they were able to reach 11th, their high point of the season.

Mercurial striker Max Kruse led the team in goals in the league, but he only scored six. Bringing in proven Bundesliga goal scorer Martin Harnik from Hannover should help that. And if it doesn’t the club can turn to an old favorite. 39 year old Claudio Pizarro returns for a fourth stint at Bremen. He is the all time leading goal scorer in Werder Bremen’s history and holds German football’s highest ever goal tally for a foreign player. He only scored once in 16 games for relegated Köln last season so he may not fix Werder Bremen’s problems in attack, but crazier things have happened before. Two players lost were Thomas Delaney and Zlatko Junuzović, key parts of the midfield. They weren’t able to directly replace the defensive solidity that Delaney brought, but record signing Davy Klaassen could be an upgrade on Junuzović’s playmaking ability. They will miss Junuzović’s set piece taking skills, however.

The differences in the results based on the formations played for Bremen are nearly polar opposites. Playing a 3-1-4-2 netted just one win in 12 games and only seven goals scored. When they played in a 4-3-3 they went 7-2-1 and scored 19 goals in the ten games. The 4-3-3 allowed Fin Bartels to play more as a winger than a striker, and the performances from him were much better.

A player I love watching on Werder Bremen is Swedish left back Ludwig Augustinsson. He’s not shy about getting forward and crossing balls in, as you might have seen at the World Cup. He also played left winger at times last season, but if they stick with the 4-3-3 he could see success bombing up and down the left side.

VfL Wolfsburg

2017-18 record: 6-15-13, 33 points 16th place 36 goals for, 48 goals against.

Some of these teams I’ve written about above had very up and down seasons. Wolfsburg tend not to do that. They have high seasons, and they have low seasons. In 2008-09 they stunningly won the Bundesliga on the backs of Grafite and Edin Džeko. Two years later, they narrowly escaped having to be in the relegation playoff. With some shrewd signings they were able to get up to second place and a DFB-Pokal victory in 2014-15, and then went into the relegation playoff two seasons later. This season saw them back in the relegation playoff, defeating Holstein Kiel 4-1 on aggregate to retain their place in the Bundesliga. They went through three different managers throughout the year, ultimately ending the season with Bruno Labbadia at the helm. He didn’t really bring any stability in his short time and with the itchy trigger finger the board have shown, if he doesn’t get off to a good start he could be out the door as well.

A big loss for the team going into next year is Daniel Didavi. As an attacking midfielder Didavi was the club’s leading scorer with nine goals in the league. This was the only major loss from the squad, and they are hoping to add goals from the striker position. Wout Weghorst joined from AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands having a one in two goal rate. The club has plenty of players who have flashed talent in their younger days and with either health this season or just being more consistent, they could help the team grow this year. Riechedly Bazoer has shown promise in the past, he had an off year but is still only 21. Divock Origi returns on loan from Liverpool and he could score more than his six goals from last season. These players who underperformed might do better if they had a manager who would stay around for more than a few months before being fired. Ignacio Camacho performed very well in a holding midfield role but was limited to just eleven games. John Brooks has been a solid center back in the past but was only able to play nine games.

The highers ups at the club have been very volatile in the past few years to the detriment of the club. Finding a manager who will build a platform will be key to the season, and not changing after a few months. Hopefully for Bruno Labbadia’s sake he’s the man to do that. Wolfsburg’s talent should lead them to not be in the bottom three come season’s end. I’m optimistic on their outlook when it comes to keeping goals out of their net. Koen Casteels played well in goal last season. Brazilian fullback William didn’t play as a typical Brazilian fullback, focusing much more on the defensive side of the position. The healthy players at the back returning will help them not concede as well. If they can get their attack going, relegation should not be an issue and they could push for a mid table finish. As long as the behind the scenes issues with management and the board don’t rear their ugly head again this season.