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Two polls on the weekend agree on one thing—the NDP is firmly back in first place in Quebec.

Both EKOS for iPolitics and CROP for LaPresse have reported a surge in NDP support in the province in the first three weeks of May, at the expense of the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois.

EKOS has the NDP at 29 per cent in the province, the Liberals at 26 per cent, the Bloc at 22 per cent and the Conservatives at 17 per cent. The NDP was even higher in the previous week’s Quebec breakout at 36 per cent, but gave some back to the Bloc in what appears to be a bump related to the election of a new Parti Québécois leader.

Even more dramatically, CROP has the NDP at 42 per cent, the Liberals at 25 per cent, the Conservatives at only 15 per cent, and the Bloc collapsing to just 13 per cent.

Those are back to Orange Wave numbers.

There’s no doubt that the NDP brand has had a great month of May. The federal party has clearly benefited from Rachel Notley’s breakthrough victory in the Alberta provincial election. Suddenly, the NDP look like winners…. There’s no doubt that the NDP brand has had a great month of May. The federal party has clearly benefited from Rachel Notley’s breakthrough victory in the Alberta provincial election. Suddenly, the NDP look like winners….

You’ve only to compare them to the 2011 election results in Quebec. The NDP, with 42.9 per cent of the vote, won 59 seats. The Conservatives, with 16.5 per cent, were reduced from 10 to only five seats. The Liberals, with 14.2 per cent, won just seven seats in the Montreal region. And the Bloc, with 23.4 per cent, won only four seats.

According to CROP, we’re there again.

Among francophone voters, who deliver about 80 per cent of Quebec’s seats, the NDP are at 47 per cent, the Liberals at 20 per cent, and the Conservatives at 15 per cent.

CROP, in the field from May 16-20, sees the NDP up 11 points in Quebec in just one month. It’s not hard to see where. A parked Bloc vote in the suburban ring around Montreal Island, has moved to the NDP. That’s no loss to the Conservatives, who are not competitive in the Greater Montreal region.

But it’s another story in the Quebec City region, known as the ‘418’ (area code), where the Conservatives have been leading for months in both the CROP and EKOS polls. In last month’s CROP, the Conservatives led the NDP 42-24 in the region. Last week, the NDP were ahead 39-34.

Where the Conservatives had been on track to win 12-15 seats in Quebec, the CROP numbers would translate to no more than the five they have now, possibly fewer. EKOS also shows the NDP trending up in Quebec at the expense of the Conservatives, who’ve been as high as 24 per cent there in recent months.

Nationally, the NDP were in first place in last week’s EKOS at 29.6 per cent, with the Conservatives at 28.1 per cent and the Liberals at 26.1 per cent. Allowing for margin of error, that’s a statistical three-way dead heat.

There’s no doubt that the NDP brand has had a great month of May. The federal party has clearly benefited from Rachel Notley’s breakthrough victory in the Alberta provincial election. Suddenly, the NDP look like winners, and Tom Mulcair can’t stop smiling. Angry Tom hasn’t been seen in months. Even in question period, he’s developed a sense of humour. Who knew?

But something else is going on. The NDP is becoming the party of progressive voters, as well as the default choice of those who want to get rid of Stephen Harper. The Liberals, meanwhile, are stuck in the muddled middle between left and right.

Consider the clear differences between the NDP and the Liberals on the mission against ISIS and Iraq and Syria, as well as the national security legislation, Bill C-51.

True to its pacifist origins, the NDP opposed the mission to Iraq from the beginning last fall, as well as extending and expanding it to Syria in debate two months ago.

On C-51, the NDP, again true to its roots as a defender of civil liberties and privacy rights, strenuously opposed the bill. Justin Trudeau and the Liberals supported it, saying they would amend and improve it when they took office.

This is clearly one of the reasons why, in the EKOS poll, voters with university education prefer the NDP over the Liberals by 34-28, with the Conservatives trailing at 25 per cent.

The month of May has also produced no budget bounce for the Conservatives, perhaps because the family tax cut on income splitting, and increase to the universal child care benefit, were pre-announced last fall. Even doubling the limit on Tax Free Saving Accounts to $10,000 per year was leaked well in advance of the budget.

Clearly, all the political benefits from the budget for the Conservatives have already been priced in.

For their part, the Liberals haven’t got anything out of their counter offer on child care and a middle class tax cut. The devil appears to be in the details, which aren’t really clear. Some also contend that Trudeau’s numbers won’t add up to a balanced budget. To make matters worse, Trudeau’s announcement got swamped in all the excitement over the Alberta election.

For those voters offended by the high-handed ways of the Harper crowd, there was yet another reason to be annoyed in the government’s retroactively backdating the bill ending the long-gun registry so that the RCMP couldn’t be charged with destroying data from it. And they tried to sneak it in the back door, making absolving the RCMP of possible wrongdoing part of the budget bill.

And then the last two weeks have been dominated by the debate over the leaders’ debates in the coming campaign. While Harper has clearly broken the monopoly of the consortium of big TV networks by accepting offers from other outlets, he also looks like he’s looking to play by his own rules or not at all.

For those voting Anyone But Harper, Mulcair is starting to look like a pretty viable alternative, especially in Quebec.

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L. Ian MacDonald is editor of Policy, the bi-monthly magazine of Canadian politics and public policy. He is the author of five books. He served as chief speechwriter to Prime Minister Brian Mulroney from 1985-88, and later as head of the public affairs division of the Canadian Embassy in Washington from 1992-94. The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.