[Vindhya Region is one of the most backward regions of Madhya Pradesh. It comprises Rewa, Satna, Sidhi and Singrauli districts. Ahead of general elections 2019, NewsClick travelled to Rewa, Sidhi and Singrauli districts of the region to understand the mood of voters. This is the third part of the series of ground reports from Vindhya region.]

Rewa: Madhya Pradesh’s Vindhya Region is one of the most mineral-rich, industrial hubs and politically active region of the state which holds key to the throne.

The former chief minister of the state and former governor of Punjab Arjun Singh hailed from the Vindhya region. Another factor that makes this region more important is its proximity with Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, as the area share borders with both the states.

The region has four parliamentary constituency seats – Rewa, Satna, Sidhi and Shahdol. The former two seats – dominated by the upper caste voters – are going to polls on May 6, while the latter two seats – dominated by the tribal and schedule caste voters – will hold voting on April 29.

Since last one and half decade, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been dominating the region. In the recently held Assembly elections, when the state voted in favour of the Congress, the voters of this region trusted the BJP, and gave 24 out of 30 seats to the saffron party. The Congress, which had 12 MLAs in this area, received a major blow, and was left with only six MLAs from the region.

In 2014 parliamentary elections, the BJP has swept the entire region, and had won all four seats.

Voting Patterns

Vindhya region is one of most backward regions of the state despite being mineral-rich. Even after 70 years of independence, the region has been dealing with water crisis, lack of healthcare centres, shortage of schools and colleges, absence of good train, road and air connectivity and dacoits. However, the most important factor when it comes to voting is none of these issues, but caste.

Rewa

Several socialist leaders including Yamuna Prasad Shastri, Maharaja Martand Singh have gone to Parliament from this seat. No party or candidate has ever dominated this seat; what has always played an important rule if, of course, the cast factor.

Since the area is dominated by the upper caste voters, in 13 out of 16 elections, upper caste leaders were victorious. OBC leaders from the Patel community manages to score victory thrice from this seat.

Caste figures (Approximate data)

Total number of voters - 16.66 lakh

Male - 8.85 lakh, Female - 7.81 lakh

Brahmin + Thakur - 9 lakh

OBC - 3 lakh

ST/ST - 3.6 lakh

Minority - 1 lakh

In the ensuing election, the BJP has fielded the sitting MP Janardan Mishra against the Congress’ Siddharth Tiwari. It seems like a lopsided contest because Mishra has a strong hold on the region, and is a sitting MP. Tiwari, a youth, has only the name of his grandfather Sunderlal Tiwari to his advantage [who died recently], with no political experience and no hold in the party as well as in region.

“In this caste-divided constituency, BJP’s candidate Mishra has an edge over Tiwari because the BJP has won all eight assembly seats and has active foot soldiers. But, no one can say that the Congress is giving a walkover to the saffron party. The plus point for the Congress is that the entire Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leadership has joined the party including former MLAs and former MP Devraj Singh Patel (2009-2014). If Tiwari succeeds in reuniting the Congress-BSP workers before elections, the result could be shocking because Rewa has been known for giving unpredictable results,” said a senior journalist of Rewa, Devendra Singh.

A threat to both the Congress and the BJP at this seat is the CPI(M) candidate Grijesh Singh Senger [the only Left candidate from MP] who is popular among the voters in Gurh, Mangawa and Mauganj tehsil. He could easily cut a large chunk of votes of both the parties, especially Congress.

BJP is facing rebellion in almost a dozen of seats out of 29 in MP, but in Rewa, the party leaders and workers remain united. On the other hand, Congress is divided into factions. When asked, senior Congress leader Sarjdar Mangu said, “Despite factions, party workers and leaders are under one umbrella since Siddharth Tiwari got the ticket. We got a major boost as the BSP leaders joined the party, and they have a fixed vote bank in the region.”

Polling will be held in the constituency on May 6.

Satna

Once known for being the bastion of former Chief Minister and Union Minister Arjun Singh, Satna Lok Sabha constituency covers the whole Satna district. The constituency is geographically a part of the Baghelkhand division of the Vindhya region.

The constituency, like in other parts of the state, is dominated by voters belonging to the OBC community Since Satna was home to many tiny princely states, the influence of the Thakur community is still palpable. Satna also has a significant tribal population, with some estimates pegging them at around 20% of the total population.

Caste figures (Approximate data)

Total number of voters -18.32 lakh

Male - 8.25 lakh, Female - 7.37 lakh

Brahmin + Thakur - 43 %

OBC - 13 %

ST/ST - 34 %

Minority - 10 %

Satna is the only parliamentary constituency of the region where the BJP is dominating since 1998, but the victory margin has been shrinking with each Lok Sabha elections Even during the 2014 pro-Narendra Modi “wave”, the BJP candidate Ganesh Singh managed to scrape through with a wafer-thin margin of 8,688 votes against Ajay Singh of the Congress.

It is worth mentioning that Satna is the only constituency of the region which sent two Muslim MPs Gulsher Ahmad (1980) and Aziz Qureshi (1984) to the Parliament.

It is quite clear that three-time BJP MP Ganesh Singh had not gained much ground since 2009. Singh won in 2009 by a lesser margin of 4,418 votes against BSP’s Sukhlal Kushwaha, a drastic fall from his 2004 margin of 83,590 votes against former deputy speaker Rajendra Singh of the Congress.

The BJP has fielded Ganesh Singh again from Satna, while the Congress has given ticket to former MLA Rajaram Tripathi. “As the victory margin of BJP leader Ganesh Singh is shrinking, Rajaram Tripathi of Congress has better chances,” said senior journalist Ashutosh Shukla.

“Upper caste voters dominate the region, and Tripathi is quite a popular leader there. It is difficult to say that BJP is going to win the seat,” he added.

At present, BJP has legislators in five of the seven assembly segments, including Raigaon, Nagod, Maihar, Amarpatan and Rampur-Baghelan, while Congress has only two MLAs in Chitrakoot and Satna assembly seats.

Polling will be held in the constituency on May 6.

Also read: No Water, Electricity, Schools or Healthcare in ‘Adarsh’ Villages of Vindhya Region

Sidhi

Sidhi is one of the biggest constituencies of the state and covers the entire Sidhi and Singrauli districts and some parts of Shahdol district.

Singrauli is the power and cement manufacturing hub of the India. Despite this, the region has no train connectivity. Road connectivity is the only option, but the roads are in a bad shape A patch of 100 km between Sidhi-Singrauli takes up to 5-6 hours, owing to the bad roads.

Water crisis, absence of proper train and road connectivity, displacement, lack of development, healthcare and education are the major issue here.

When we talk about politics, the SC, ST and OBC voters choose the fate of the candidates here They account for 80% of the votes. Just like Rewa, no party or candidate has ever dominated this seat for long, but since last two terms, the BJP has been winning this seat.

Caste equation (Approximate data)

Total number of voters - 18.32

Male - 9.59 lakh, Female - 8.72 lakh

ST / ST - 50 % (Gond - 37 %)

OBC - 28.8 %

Brahmin + Thakur - 18 %

Minority - 3.2 %

At this seat, (which was won by the BJP in 2009 and 2014), the sitting BJP MP Riti Pathak faces a formidable challenge because of ex-MP minister and former CM Arjun Singh’s son Ajay Singh ‘Rahul’, who is eyeing this election as a political lifeline, after losing in 2018 Assembly polls from pocket-borough Churhat.

In the recently held Assembly elections, BJP won seven out of eight seats in the region.

Since the announcement of candidature, Riti Pathak has been facing major resentment from party workers and leaders in Sidhi, Singrauli and Shahdol districts which form part of the Lok Sabha seat.

Recently, ex-BJP MP Govind Prasad Mishra, who won the seat in 2009 and ended the dominance of Arjun Singh’s family on Churhat seat in 1993, quit the BJP over fielding of Pathak again from Sidhi Lok Sabha seat Besides, the sitting MLA Kedarnath Shukla has been openly opposing her candidature which may hurt the saffron party.

This the is the first time Congress candidate Ajay Singh is fighting from Sidhi seat. In 2014, he had contested from Satna, but had lost the seat.

“BJP MP Riti Pathak is facing anti-incumbency, and some senior party leaders have either quit or are opposing her candidature. As the election dates are approaching, the voice of dissent is growing louder. If the BJP succeeded in controlling the rebellion, the party can win,” said senior advocate and political observer of Sidhi, Umresh Tiwari, adding that this time, Congress can win from this seat.

“In Sidhi, BJP and Modi are contesting the election, and not Riti Pathak. But on the other hand, Rahul Singh is fighting the election not Rahul Gandhi or Congress,” said a journalist Jaganath Dwivedi

Shahdol

The Shahdol Lok Sabha constituency, which is reserved for Scheduled Caste (ST) candidates is spread over Anuppur, Umaria, Shahdol and Katni districts of Eastern Madhya Pradesh.

For the BJP leadership, Shahdol is an important seat, and the growing disenchantment of the tribal voters towards the party has been a cause of concern. Congress is expecting that it will be able to snatch the seat from the saffron party.

Because Shahdol shares border with Chhattisgarh, and has massive tribal population in the vicinity of the district, leaders like Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi come here for campaigning. No election can be completed without Shahdol, said senior journalist Ashutosh Shukla.

In 2013, the BJP had won six out of eight Assembly seats, but in 2018 elections, both the parties have four each, with Congress having a better vote share In the eight Assembly seats that fall under the Shahdol Lok Sabha constituency, Congress got over 5.12 lakh votes while the BJP has got 4.90 lakh votes.

No one has dominated this tribal seat. Most of the time, voters chose new representatives for themselves.

In 2014, Dalpat Singh Paraste won this seat as a BJP candidate, but the five-term MP died in 2016 and the bypolls sent BJP’s Gyan Singh to the Parliament Congress candidate, Himadri Singh, whose father Dalbir Singh was a union minister in Rajiv Gandhi government and mother (Rajesh Nandini Singh) was Shahdol MP in the past, lost by 58, 000 votes, by reduced margin.

Caste equation and electorates (Approximate data)

Total number of voters - 16.46 lakh

Male - 8.43 lakh, Female - 8.02 lakh

SC/ST voters - 9 lakh

Brahmin + Thakur + Minority - 3.5 lakh

OBC - 4 lakh

Days before announcement of the Lok Sabha tickets, Congress’ Himadri Singh joined the BJP, and she got a ticket from Shahdol. She is facing a tough challenge against Congress’ Pramila Singh. Also, sitting BJP MP Gyan Singh will be contesting as an independent candidate after denial of ticket to him.

Shahdol is one of the seats where the BJP is facing discontent In the absence of Gyan Singh, the BJP could be hurt in two assembly segments, Manpur and Bandhavgarh in Umaria district.

Though Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP) has a base in Shahdol, the fight will be between Congress and BJP. If it is a close contest, then GGP’s votes may prove to be crucial In 2016, GGP had secured around 70,000 votes here.

The constituency will vote on April 29.

Also read: Elections 2019: Rampant Corruption in Implementation of Govt Welfare Schemes in Vindhya Region