Australia has already met its 2020 greenhouse emissions reduction target, an outcome the government claims enhances its credibility ahead of the Paris climate summit next week, but analysts and climate campaigners say is proof the target was always far too low.



Having foreshadowed for weeks that revised greenhouse projections would mean Australia had already met its 2020 target, the environment minister, Greg Hunt, has confirmed the official figures, showing Australia is 28m tonnes of greenhouse abatement ahead of what it needs to reach the target of a 5% reduction by 2020 based on 2000 levels.

In 2008, when Kevin Rudd was devising the emissions trading scheme, Australia thought it would have to reduce cumulative greenhouse emissions by 1,335m tonnes to get to a 5% reduction. When the Abbott government came to power in 2010, that was down to 755m tonnes. More recently it was assessed at 236m tonnes, and new figures show it is now down to nothing.

The government is also likely to receive up to 16m free tonnes of abatement in the form of international permits from landfill operators who ended up with a windfall gain after the abolition of the emissions trading scheme.

Australia has actually pledged to the United Nations that it would reduce emissions by between 5% and 25% by 2020, with a 5% cut being what we would do even if the rest of the world did nothing, and giving specific conditions for moving to a 15% or 25% target.

The independent Climate Change Authority has found 5% is “not credible” as Australia’s share of the global effort to keep global warming at 2C, and the conditions for a higher target have already been met, but neither major party has said they would move from the minimum 5% goal.

Australia is meeting its minimum goal via accounting rules – most forecasts show its emissions will rise by 2020. The latest analysis by research firm RepuTex shows Australia’s actual emissions will rise 4% by 2020 compared with 2000 levels, and 6% compared with today.

The government is shirking its commitment Kelly O'Shanassy, Australian Conservation Foundation

But Australia will be able to count “carry over”, under the accounting rules governing international emissions calculations, because it “overshot” or did better than the special deal it received at the Kyoto meeting for its first climate change pledge to 2012. (Unlike most developed countries, Australia was allowed to increase its emissions by 8%.)

Emissions have fallen due to the drought, the slowdown in the economy, the decline in manufacturing and to a small extent the impact of the renewable energy target and other climate policies such as the emissions reduction fund.

The deputy chief executive of the Climate Institute, Erwin Jackson, said the new forecasts meant Australia should take on a tougher target.

“Are we going to sit on our hands for the next five years or are we going to look at the conditions for a higher 2020 target? The Coalition was originally assuming its policies would cut Australia’s emissions by 160m tonnes in 2020, so if we are already meeting the 5% target, taking exactly the same policy action should be able to meet a target of 25%,” he said.

“The truth is the actions the government has taken will have the net effect of increasing Australia’s emissions, not decreasing them. They repealed the carbon price and weakened the renewable energy target.”

The Australian Conservation Foundation’s chief executive, Kelly O’Shanassy, said that “when Australia’s minimum 5% target was set, the government said it would increase it when other countries committed to stronger targets. This has happened, but our target remains low. The government is shirking its commitment.

“Strengthening Australia’s 2020 and 2030 targets would send a positive message about the government’s commitment to climate action leading up to the meetings in Paris.”

The government will also take a longer term climate pledge to the COP21 conference in Paris, to reduce emissions by 26% to 28% by 2030.

It argues this is a significant commitment because it is one of the largest reductions on a per capita basis. Australia is and will remain one of the world’s largest per capita emitters.

Hunt will address the national press club today.



