The science behind the NFL’s compensatory pick formula is advanced — and not something that is fully public knowledge to this point. But the basic principle is straight forward — the league attempts to compensate (hence compensatory) teams who lose their talent to free agency in the form of NFL Draft picks, with a handful of selections being introduced at the end of every round — beginning with the third.

The Miami Dolphins are — or at least were — poised to cash in on the departure of OT Ja’Wuan James to Denver with one of those premiere 3rd-round compensatory picks.

Every projection at the start of 2019 training camp forecasted the Dolphins to secure one of the top available compensatory picks — with enough years of practice, reverse engineering of the formula and end result have allowed for fairly accurate forecasting of the NFL’s decision making process.

But the Dolphins’ 3rd-round compensatory pick may be in trouble. The latest projection from Over The Cap suggests the departure of James may be downgraded from a 2020 3rd-round pick to a 2020 4th-round pick — thanks in large part to one of the issues that probably helped make Miami’s decision to let James walk easier. Durability.

James has been battling a knee issue since Week 1 for the Broncos — missing time that could prove costly in the NFL’s evaluation of the compensatory pick situation. Here’s what Over The Cap’s Nick Korte had to say on the Dolphins’ pending compensatory pick:

“…Miami’s comp pick for Ja’Wuan James has been demoted to a 4th rounder due to a knee injury he suffered early in Week 1. Unlike with (New York Jets LB C.J.) Mosley, there’s a higher change that this demotion could stick. My forecasting suggests that missing six games–of which James has done half of so far–could be enough to keep his contract valued in the 4th round.” – Nick Korte, Over The Cap

For what it is worth, James is “on schedule” to return within the 2-4 week timetable initially provided when his injury was diagnosed — that according to Broncos head coach Vic Fangio.

From Vic Fangio today: • CB Bryce Callahan (foot) out four-to-six more weeks after procedure. • RT Ja'Wuan James (knee) is "doing good" on schedule with 2-4 week timetable for return. • LB Josey Jewell (leg) and DE Derek Wolfe (ankle) are currently "questionable" — Kyle Fredrickson (@kylefredrickson) September 25, 2019

As if Dolphins fans didn’t have enough to actively root for this season — add seeing James back on the field to the list.