“What’s at stake is whether this primary is going to go to 50 states, or whether it could end at some point before we go through all 50,” said Iowa Democratic strategist Jeff Link, who said he plans to caucus for Clinton. | AP Photo Clinton confronts her Iowa nightmares If Hillary Clinton falls short in Iowa, there's a good chance of a long and drawn out nomination fight.

DES MOINES, Iowa – For Hillary Clinton, Iowa is as much about a psychological victory as it is about the delegates.

It's the state that revealed the cracks in her façade eight years ago, when she suffered a devastating third place finish. This time, she signed off on a strategy that poured money and time into the state in part as political redemption, a chance to vanquish the ghosts of 2008. A repeat losing scenario, many Democrats agree, would once again raise questions within the party about whether she can go the distance.


“What’s at stake is whether this primary is going to go to 50 states, or whether it could end at some point before we go through all 50,” said Iowa Democratic strategist Jeff Link, who said he plans to caucus for Clinton. “If she can win here and marry that with a victory in South Carolina and maybe Nevada, that damages Bernie Sanders’ ability to argue that he’s more than a one-trick pony.”

Clinton allies are confident she can win the nomination even if she loses here. But given Sanders’ ability to raise money almost at the same pace as Clinton – his campaign announced Sunday that it raised a massive $20 million in January alone – an Iowa victory would have far reaching effects, lasting well beyond the February early state window. A victory in a state once thought to be within Clinton’s grasp would provide the incentive for him to carry on well into Spring, especially if it was followed by a victory in New Hampshire – where he currently leads the former secretary of state in polls. The proportional delegate system is another motivating factor for Sanders to remain in the race. Some Democrats said they could see him taking his fight all the way to the convention floor in July.

One scenario that Clinton allies fear is if the Republican field begins to clarify while Sanders and Clinton remain locked in an elongated primary battle that nobody planned for.

“Both the GOP and Sanders unloading on Hillary Clinton with the same messages for months? That wasn’t the plan,” said one ally close to the campaign. “If Sanders wins Iowa, he wins New Hampshire big, and then inevitably feels he has to really go negative to move the needle in the states that follow. All of his attacks are essentially character attacks, previewing the GOP attacks on her. It doesn’t work, he loses in the end, but she’s significantly softened up.”

Those with deep ties to the Clinton camp said they expect that a defeat here would also prove psychologically damaging for her campaign operatives – a second Iowa loss would linger as an open wound and it would likely lead Clinton to begin second-guessing strategy. It’s already started as the race has tightened -- POLITICO reported earlier this month that Bill Clinton has started phoning campaign manager Robby Mook daily to express concern about the strength of the campaign ground game in the March voting states.

For now, the campaign is feeling cautiously optimistic. Clinton’s internal polling shows her ahead of Sanders, multiple sources said. A defeat would not be a death blow, but it would also change the strategy for a campaign that for months said it was laser focused on the first four voting states.

“A win in Iowa would be a moral victory,” said Mo Elleithee, who served as Clinton’s traveling press secretary in 2008 and spent two months on the ground in Iowa. “To have fallen behind in some polling and then to come back and win -- it would be a validation of the organization they spent so much time and money trying to build.”

A loss, he said, would mean “they’ve got to recalibrate and get ready for that long haul.”

What an Iowa win would mean for Bernie Sanders Gabriel Debenedetti on what a win would mean for the momentum of the Bernie Sanders campaign.

Clinton operatives for weeks have been lowering expectations in New Hampshire, and Sanders is putting up a real fight in Nevada to exercise his own demons – to prove he can be a viable candidate in a state with a diverse population. In Nevada, where the state party runs caucus training sessions, insiders said they have seen “a ton of Bernie people showing up to caucus trainings since January.”

But before then, Sanders still has to prove his viability. If he loses Iowa, the Clinton campaign could write off a loss in New Hampshire as nothing more than a close-to-home state advantage for the Vermont senator. “But if Bernie were to win,” said a Democratic strategist supporting Clinton, “It says something about momentum and it sticks another knife in that she’s yesterday’s news.”

