Hello again, fellow rookie draft fans! In January of each year I do an annual expert rookie mock to see how values shift from now until the NFL draft. This year I’m doing mocks every month to track player movement. The January Expert mock is no longer as necessary, but it has become tradition and fun, so we did it anyway! This year’s annual expert mock included:

Doug Veatch – UTHDynasty.com

Rumford Johnny – formerly of 2MUGsFF.com

Sigmond Bloom – FootballGuys.com

Rob Leath – DynastyLeagueFootball.com

Scott Fish – DynastyLeagueFootball.com

Rich Hribar – XNSports.com

Matthew Freedman – RotoViz.com

Ryan McDowell – DynastyLeagueFootball.com

Chad Parsons – UTHDynasty.com

Jon Moore – RotoViz.com

Shane Hallam – DraftTV.com

Shawn Siegele – RotoViz.com

Here is the ADP chart for the six mock drafts we did in January. Below it I will go into a few things I have found interesting over the course of these mocks and it’s resulting average draft positions. I started each of these drafts right after the NFL’s deadline to declare for the NFL draft and they took less than a week. Two mocks were entirely composed of analysts from various sites in the fantasy football industry. I single these out so you can see what, if any, differences there may be. The other mocks were comprised of dynasty rookie draft enthusiasts from the DLF reader community and twitter. If you would like to sign up for future startup, rookie, or devy mocks, please signup here!

Rank Player ADP Annual Expert Mock Mock 2 Mock 3 Mock 4 Mock 5 Expert Mock 1 Todd Gurley, RB – Georgia 1.7 3 2 1 2 1 1 2 Amari Cooper, WR – Alabama 2.5 1 3 2 4 3 2 3 Melvin Gordon, RB – Wisconsin 3.2 5 1 4 1 2 6 4 Devante Parker, WR – Louisville 4.2 4 4 6 3 5 3 5 Dorial Green-Beckham, WR – Missouri 6.3 6 5 7 7 8 5 6 Kevin White, WR – West Virginia 6.3 2 9 3 5 12 7 7 Jaelen Strong, WR – ASU 8.3 7 10 10 8 11 4 8 Jay Ajayi, RB – Boise State 8.8 10 11 8 6 7 11 9 Devin Funchess, WR – Michigan 8.8 8 6 11 11 9 8 10 Tevin Coleman, RB – Indiana 10.7 11 12 12 10 6 13 11 Marcus Mariota, QB – Oregon 11.0 12 17 5 18 4 10 12 TJ Yeldon, RB – Alabama 11.0 9 7 13 13 10 14 13 Duke Johnson, RB – Miami 11.5 15 8 9 12 13 12 14 Sammie Coates, WR – Auburn 13.5 20 13 16 9 14 9 15 Ameer Abdullah, RB – Nebraska 14.5 13 15 14 14 15 16 16 Maxx Williams, TE – Minnesota 15.7 14 14 17 17 17 15 17 Mike Davis, RB – South Carolina 18.0 22 19 15 15 18 19 18 Jameis Winston, QB – Florida State 19.7 19 16 19 21 22 21 19 Nelson Algholor, WR – Southern California 20.5 18 22 22 25 16 20 20 Stefon Diggs, WR – Maryland 21.5 21 21 21 24 25 17 21 Devin Smith, WR – Ohio State 22.5 23 28 20 23 19 22 22 Javorius Allen, RB – Southern California 22.7 24 18 30 20 20 24 23 Vince Mayle, WR – Washington State 25.2 17 29 25 22 32 26 24 David Cobb, RB – Minnesota 25.3 29 24 23 16 21 39 25 Rashad Greene, WR – Florida State 26.0 27 27 27 26 24 25 26 Breshad Perriman, WR – Central Florida 27.0 16 38 29 27 29 23 27 Ty Montgomery, WR – Stanford 29.3 25 25 28 30 37 31 28 Josh Robinson, RB – Mississippi State 29.7 28 23 18 28 49 32 29 Justin Hardy, WR – ECU 29.8 41 20 39 35 26 18 30 Jeremy Langford, RB – Michigan State 32.8 37 31 26 34 31 38 31 Davante Davis, WR – UNLV 33.0 26 44 35 37 27 29 32 Tyler Lockett, WR – Kansas State 33.3 31 26 32 29 41 41 33 Deontay Greenberry, WR – Houston 34.3 30 41 34 38 36 27 34 Karlos Williams, RB – Florida State 36.3 32 36 42 19 46 43 35 David Johnson, RB – Northern Iowa 37.5 33 40 31 39 49 33 36 Brett Hundley, QB – UCLA 40.8 36 49 38 43 45 34 37 DeAndre Smelter, WR – Georgia Tech 41.7 40 49 49 33 49 30 38 Phillip Dorsett, WR – Miami 41.8 47 45 24 49 49 37 39 Tony Lippett, WR – Michigan State 42.8 43 49 40 49 30 46 40 Titus Davis, WR – Central Michigan 43.2 46 49 49 42 38 35 41 Malcolm Brown, RB – Texas 43.5 35 42 43 45 47 49 42 Antwan Goodley, WR – Baylor 43.7 49 39 49 48 49 28 43 Nick O’Leary, TE – Florida State 43.8 49 43 33 49 49 40 44 Kasen Williams, WR – Washington 43.8 49 35 49 32 49 49 45 Terrell Watson, RB – Azusa Pacific 44.3 34 49 36 49 49 49 46 Trey Williams, RB – Texas A&M 44.5 49 32 49 46 49 42 47 Jesse James, TE – Penn State 45.0 38 49 49 49 49 36 48 Zach Zenner, RB – South Dakota State 45.2 39 37 49 49 49 48 49 Darren Waller, WR – Georgia Tech 45.2 49 49 49 36 39 49 50 Jamison Crowder, WR – Duke 45.5 49 49 49 49 28 49 51 Austin Hill, WR – Arizona 45.5 48 47 44 41 48 45 52 Matt Jones, RB – Florida 46.2 49 49 41 49 42 47 53 Garrett Grayson, QB – Colorado State 46.3 49 33 49 49 49 49 54 Josh Harper, WR – Fresno State 46.3 49 34 48 49 49 49 55 Devon Cajuste, WR – Stanford 47.0 49 49 37 49 49 49 56 Donatella Luckett, WR – Harding 47.7 45 49 45 49 49 49 57 Jahwan Edwards, RB – Ball State 47.8 42 49 49 49 49 49 58 Tre Madden, RB – Southern California 48.2 49 49 49 44 49 49 59 Jeff Heuerman, TE – Ohio State 48.5 49 49 46 49 49 49 60 Kyle Prater, WR – Northwestern 48.7 49 49 47 49 49 49 61 Marcus Coker, RB – Stonybrook 48.8 49 48 49 49 49 49

Devin Funchess – The slide I previously noted has continued. Last month I mentioned that his ADP had slid down one spot every month. This month he fell from sixth overall to ninth overall. Worse than that, his high of six and low of 11 are his personal worst draft spots of the last four months. People are finally taking note of his poor hands and inconsistency. At this point the downswing is likely to continue as people become more educated on him unless he absolutely destroys the combine or he moves back to tight end. This is a weak tight end class and he would immediately fight Maxx Williams for the top spot. [inlinead]?

Maxx Williams – I mentioned him in my November ADP article and few cared. He makes an amazing play, twitter erupts and now he’s a thing. His ADP climbed from the late third round in October to being drafted 18th overall in the final November mock. His lowest draft slot in January mocks was 17th overall. Even though his highest draft slot was 14th overall this month, I would expect him to climb into the first round of many rookie drafts to a tight end needy owner. No other tight ends are being drafted until the late fourth round. It’s a one man race.

Jay Ajayi, Ameer Abdullah, TJ Yeldon, Duke Johnson and Tevin Coleman – Why am I grouping five running backs here? Drafters cannot decide who they prefer. Individual drafters can, but as a collective the order these guys are drafted in each mock varies greatly. It’s universally agreed that the class is strong in the backfield. However, the players are so closely ranked and drafted that a lot of their value may get placed on the situation they land in. Yes, the NFL changes quickly and a running back’s “situation” can greatly improve due to an injury and other various factors. That said, a running back’s career is also very short on average so landing in a very poor spot could platoon them for a good chunk of their career as more and more running backs enter the league to fight for those spots. It’s up to each person to decide how much they will weigh situation vs talent. The antiquated always take talent over situation theory is generally pretty strong, but it has gotten to the point where situations are being undervalued. I fully expect the tier of running backs after Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley to shift a lot over the next two months until we know where they will land.

Analysts vs the Dynasty Community The two expert mocks had Breshad Perriman (WR, Central Florida) going 16th and 23rd. He went between 27 and 38 in the other four mocks. Something to note that the analysts are starting to value him as a second round pick. The expert mocks also had David Cobb (RB, Minnesota) going 29th and 39th. The four other mocks had him going 24th or higher. His current second round ADP might be in jeopardy. The expert mocks are also valuing Davante Davis (WR – UNLV) much higher than the other mocks. He was drafted in the early second round of both and he was drafted 35th overall or later in three of the four other mocks. [ad5]?