Here is my fifth edition of my Big 12 Power Rankings this season. We’re currently in the midst of the slowest time in college basketball — the two weeks during finals and around the holidays. Each team in the Big 12 has only played one game since last week’s Power Rankings post came out on December 7th. It was the roughest week yet for the conference as a whole, as the league went 6-4 in the last seven days. We’re starting to see some potential concerns for some of these teams, which I’ll break down in this post.

All of my previous Power Rankings posts, as well as the season previews I wrote, can be found at this link. For any newcomers, below is a blurb I wrote in my first Power Rankings post this season. (If you’ve been here before, go ahead and skip ahead to the good stuff.) The below inset is what I’ve decided is essentially my mission statement for this weekly article. Give it a read if you’re new.

“Two of my favorite basketball writers on the Internet are Zach Lowe and Luke Winn. I guess I should say “were” for one of those guys as Luke Winn was hired by the Toronto Raptors (!) in the summer of 2017 as Director of Prospect Strategy. Lowe covers the NBA and Winn did cover college basketball for Sports Illustrated. The best part about reading these guys is that you learn something new about basketball, whether it’s a team or a player, every time that you read their stuff. They inform you in intelligent ways without relying on the standard hot take-isms or journalistic tropes. They notice things about teams or players while watching games and then show it to their readers, whether through game clips or data-based analysis, and they do it in a way that is digestible and thought-provoking. I do not have the talent that these two guys have, but my goal is to provide you with a similar look at the Big 12 every week with my weekly Big 12 Power Rankings post. I will rank the teams 1 through 10, but that’s not really what matters here (but feel free to let me know if your team should obviously be ranked 5th instead of 6th). What I want to provide are statistics, analysis, game clips, or just random observations that I’ve made that help you to learn more about a team or a player on that team. And sometimes, I just might include a funny anecdote or item about a team if there’s a slow week. Some weeks, I’ll write more about some teams than other teams. The bigger the game or a week a school has, the more likely I am to go a little deeper on them. Everyone will get their fair share in the end. Just like Lowe and Winn, I want to inform you and give you thought-provoking and compelling analysis on the Big 12 that you’re not getting anywhere else on the Internet. Alright, let’s jump in.”

Alright, let’s dive in. As per usual, here’s a breakdown on the key Kenpom statistics and metrics that will be shown for each team every week. These will always be shown right below the header for each team. Ken Pomeroy’s blog post explaining these metrics can be read here.

• Ranking and AdjEM: The ranking signifies where a team ranks nationally in Kenpom’s AdjEM. AdjEM is Adjusted Efficiency Margin; it is the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency. The margin is “adjusted” to account for strength of competition, expected outcome, and recency. The idea of “adjusted” is explained in much clearer detail by Pomeroy here.

• Adj. Offense: Also known as Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Adj. Offense is shown on a per 100 possessions basis, so a rating of 112.3 would represent 112.3 points scored per 100 possessions. This will include the team’s adjusted efficiency number, their rank nationally, and their rank in the Big 12.

• Adj. Defense: Also known as Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This works the same as Adj. Offense, but is for a team’s defensive efficiency. Adj. Defense is shown on a per 100 possessions basis, so a rating of 98.7 would represent 98.7 points allowed per 100 possessions. This will include the team’s adjusted efficiency number, their rank nationally, and their rank in the Big 12.

• Adj. Tempo: This shows the number of possessions per 40 minutes. A data point of 71.8 would mean this team plays 71.8 possessions per 40 minutes. This will always include the team’s adjusted tempo, their rank nationally, and their rank in the Big 12.

All statistics used in this post are from Kenpom, Synergy Sports, College Basketball Reference, Hoop-Math, or T-Rank. All clips are pulled from WatchESPN or uploaded games on YouTube. So if I haven’t pulled many clips on your team, it’s because their games can’t be found on those platforms, not because I don’t want to. Once conference play rolls around and basically every Big 12 game is on ESPN, the clip count between teams should even out.

1. West Virginia Mountaineers (Last Week: 2nd)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 9-1, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 11th, +22.72

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 114.5, 19th, 3rd

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 91.7, 11th, 4th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 74.4, 28th, 2nd



That’s right! There’s a new #1 in my rankings. This may be silly because Kansas is still Kansas, but it just feels odd keeping them in the top spot currently, especially when you compare the play of West Virginia since their only loss on opening night to Kansas’ recent performances.

West Virginia is Press Virginia yet again this season. They are currently the 2nd best team in the nation at forcing turnovers, with a defensive Turnover Rate of 27.9%. Only Stephen F. Austin is ahead of the Mountaineers in that metric currently. They have recorded steals on 14.2% of their defensive possessions, which is currently 3rd in the nation. They are spearheaded by Jevon Carter, who I have previously described as a “rabid terrier” on a basketball court. Carter is 4th in the nation in Steal Rate — currently at 6.1%.

In the renewal of the Backyard Brawl this past weekend, I almost felt bad for Pitt at times against West Virginia’s pressure. Pitt is bad. Quite bad. They don’t have the talent nor the experience to handle West Virginia’s intense ball pressure. Here are three possessions from that game that highlight the Mountaineers never-ending assault of their opponents. They don’t ever stop harassing you.

In this first clip, Pittsburgh faces a typical West Virginia press after a made basket — ball pressure on the inbounder and ball denial on every possible inbounds pass. It’s one of the more simple steals West Virginia will grab all season, but what I love about this clip is the immediate transition from defense to offense.

It’s so obvious that Bob Huggins drills the importance of this transition from defense to offense into his players in practice. Two quick passes and they’ve got a layup attempt at the rim, which they end up missing, but the miss doesn’t matter to me. I love the flair of the two passes after the steal. These dudes freaking love doing this to their opponents, and it shows.

In this second clip, let’s all marvel at the ease in which West Virginia enters into a trap and full-court pressure after a missed basket.

I can’t imagine how frustrating it is to be Pittsburgh, specifically the player who grabs the rebound. You work hard to get a defensive stop and a rebound. This is your time to relax. Let’s get an outlet and go see if we can finally score. Nope. The rebounder is immediately engulfed with a trap and throws it away. That has to just be a total bummer. That’s the perfect way to describe playing West Virginia. “Can you guys just chill for like a sec? You’re bumming me out.” Seriously, look at this screenshot. Grabbing a rebound is supposed to be fun.

In this last clip, we see a bit of West Virginia’s occasional strategy in the halfcourt — their 1-3-1 halfcourt trap. This used to be Bob Huggins’ old reliable when West Virginia was in the Big East, before they embraced the Press Virginia style of play.

There’s nothing overly complicated here. It’s a standard 1-3-1 halfcourt trap, but it’s another way for West Virginia to cause confusion and force mistakes from their opposition. And even if opponents don’t turn it over, it’s a nice alternative look which can make the opposition settle for jumpers rather than attack. The slight moment of reprieve from the fullcourt pressure actually puts opponents too at ease.

Only two more games in the non-conference portion of their schedule (Coppin State and Fordham) before their December 29 opener in Stillwater against Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers should enter conference play at 11-1.

Coming Up: 12/20 vs Coppin State

2. Kansas Jayhawks (Last Week: 1st)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 7-2, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 7th, +24.19

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 115.3, 16th, 2nd

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 91.1, 8th, 2nd

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 72.1, 75th, 4th



So one week after I talk about the improved Kansas defense the Jayhawks gave up 95 points, 1.11 PPP (points per possession), and 14 three-pointers to Arizona State in their 2nd straight “home” loss to a Pac-12 opponent. (Are we calling the loss to Washington in Kansas City at the Sprint Center a home loss or not? I know Kansas slapped down the Jayhawk at midcourt and have it listed as a home game on their schedule, but it really doesn’t feel like a home game.)

I still think that the Arizona State game was more of an aberration and due to Arizona State’s guards playing incredibly well than some gigantic sign that Kansas is now suddenly awful or anything, but I am a bit concerned about a few things. I’ll dive into the 3-point defense later, but first, let’s examine two statistics about this particular Kansas team that worry me.

Kansas currently has two stats in their statistical profile that stand out for their outlier-ness from previous Bill Self teams — their FT Rate on offense and their defensive 3PA/FGA (3-pointers attempted per total field goals attempted). First, let’s look at their FT Rate.

This chart shows the FT Rate for every Kansas offense each season since Bill Self arrived at Kansas.

That extreme data point for the 2018 season is quite the sight. This Kansas team does not get to the FT line at all. They are currently 350th out of 351 teams nationally with a FT Rate of just 19.6% (calculated by simply taking FTA/FGA). The closest Big 12 team to Kansas is Iowa State, who ranks 259th currently with a FT Rate of 30.7%. The highest individual FT Rate on the Kansas team is Mitch Lightfoot at 30.8%, but Lightfoot has only shot 8 FTs. Behind him is Udoka Azubuike at 28.4% who has shot 21 FTs through nine games. There are just not a lot of guys on this team getting to the line (obviously). By comparison, last year’s Kansas team had Frank Mason and Josh Jackson who both had FT Rates above 40%.

I’m not sure how Kansas solves this problem. This is a jump shooting team. Svi Mykhailiuk, Malik Newman, and Devonte’ Graham are jump-shooters. Lagerald Vick gets into the paint frequently, but often finishes acrobatically to avoid contact rather than seeking it out. Kansas shouldn’t want Azubuike at the FT line, as he only shoots 43% there. Marcus Garrett doesn’t have a high enough usage rate. There is no Frank Mason or Josh Jackson. Those guys got to the hoop pretty much whenever they wanted to, and searched for bodies to bounce off of to get a whistle. Those types of players are not on this roster. Kansas won’t have a FT Rate of 19.6% all season, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they were at the bottom of the Big 12 all year.

For this second chart in this week’s edition of shocking charts, check out Kansas’ defensive 3PA/FGA for each Bill Self season.

If I didn’t know any better, I’d say I was looking at a chart showing Bitcoin’s price with that steep incline. (Boom. Nailed it.) Seriously though, no Bill Self Kansas team has ever allowed opponents to chuck 3-pointers like this. They are currently 297th in the nation in 3PA/FGA at 42.1%. They’ve had a few opponents who have been willing to fire at will — Arizona State, Syracuse, and Texas Southern each attempted over 30 3-pointers. Nonetheless, this is concerning. Ken Pomeroy has written about this often, but for the newcomers, here’s a quick explanation:

Your opponents’ 3-point FG% is affected by randomness and a high degree of variance. Someone is not likely to take a 3-pointer unless they are reasonably open, and if they are reasonably open, that 3-pointer going in or missing is not impacted by the defense. It’s impacted simply by whether or not the shooter made the shot. The defense has no control over the 3-pointer once it is released. Therefore, the best 3-point defense is to simply not let your opponent shoot 3-pointers — hence the 3PA/FGA statistic.

Based on that logic, Kansas current defensive 3PA/FGA statistic is obviously worrying. It’s very tough to make it through six games in March if you’re allowing your opponents to shoot that many threes. Your risk of losing increases, as eventually, one opponent could get hot and suddenly you’re going home.

Now if you’re a Kansas fan and you’re a believer in fate and coincidences and oddities, I have a potentially encouraging factoid for you. What is the previous season under Bill Self with the highest 3PA/FGA for a Kansas defense? Well that would be 2008 — Bill Self’s lone championship as a head coach. That team finished 287th in the nation, allowing opponents to shoot 3’s 38.3% of the time. So maybe keep letting your opponents launch those long-range shots I guess?

Real quick, let me dive into the Kansas performance on defense against Arizona State. I’m sure Bill Self had a field day in their film session the day after the game. Kansas’ closeouts were consistently awful all day. Above, I mentioned how opponents probably won’t shoot 3’s unless they are “reasonably” open. Well, Kansas allowed a boatload of reasonably open 3’s to Arizona State’s guards all game. Check out this clip I pulled of some of the particularly awful perimeter defense.

There is some awful perimeter defense and lazy closeouts in just those five possessions. I mean — look at these.

Shit like that can be improved. Close out hard, make your man relocate, but don’t just let him rise up in front of you like that. Maybe this will be a new coaching point for Self, and we’ll see that 3PA/FGA statistic start to return to less concerning levels. It wouldn’t surprise me. If not, hope for that 2008 similarity Kansas fans.

Coming Up: 12/16 at Nebraska, 12/18 vs. Omaha, 12/21 vs. Stanford in Oakland

3. TCU Horned Frogs (Last Week: 3rd)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 10-0, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 20th, +19.81

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 116.7, 12th, 1st

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 96.9, 51st, 9th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 72.2, 72nd, 3rd



TCU has now leaped to being the top ranked offense in the Big 12. Their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at Kenpom is now 116.7 points per 100 possessions. This is yet another great offense coached by Jamie Dixon. Dixon doesn’t get the credit he deserves as a great offensive coach. Since 2004, there’s only been one season a Jamie Dixon-coached team has finished outside the top-40 nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.

I talked about this in TCU’s preview, but usually their greatest strength is their offensive rebounding. That’s not the case this season. Their Off. Reb.% is currently only 30.9%, which ranks 122nd nationally. The previous low for a Jamie Dixon team was his 2010 Pittsburgh squad, which finished 65th nationally with a Off. Reb.% of 34.1%. This year’s TCU team is over 3 percentage points worse than that team. So how is this team so good offensively? They shoot it incredibly well.

TCU currently has the 4th highest team eFG% in the country at 61%. They are 12th nationally in 2-point FG% at 59% and 8th nationally in 3-point FG% at 43%. This team is loaded with good offensive players who are skilled and can shoot it. Dixon uses this to his team’s advantage and runs an offense which has some of the best spacing I’ve seen this season. Let’s watch some clips.

In last Friday’s win over Nevada, TCU posted a PPP of 1.20 and ran a beautiful spread pick-and-roll offense. Check out this first clip from early in the game.

The spacing on that offensive possession is perfect the entire time. Every offensive player has the ability to attack his man off the dribble with room to operate because of the spacing. At every moment, there are at least three shooters on the perimeter, ready to fire. Look at the floor balance in the screenshot below when Alex Robinson enters into a ball screen with Vladimir Brodziansky with 8 seconds left on the shot clock. He has plenty of space to create for himself or others, and that’s exactly what he does.

In this second clip, it’s a different way for TCU to space the floor, but it works just as effectively.

Vladimir Brodziansky has the ball in the post and is surrounded by shooters. If the offball defenders don’t help, Brodziansky has space to go to work. If they do help, he can kick it out to one of his teammates to attack from the perimeter. He does the latter here. Kenrich Williams then attacks a closeout and is able to kick it to an open JD Miller in the corner. It’s perfect offense. And once again, check out the nearly perfect floor spacing when Brodziansky has the ball in the post (I’d prefer JD Miller to be in the opposite corner rather than the opposite short corner, but it’s not awful by any means. He’s in position to attack the offensive glass or get a drop-off pass from Brodziansky).

In this final clip, it’s a late game clock situation at the end of the first half against Nevada.

I’m not sure you’ll see much better ball screen action in college basketball this season. The floor spacing is perfect yet again. Alex Robinson does a great job manipulating the screen the way he wants to. He uses the first screen and then hesitates for a second. He makes both defenders question if a re-screen is coming. When Brodziansky rolls rather than re-screening, Robinson delivers a beautiful bounce pass to Vlad for an easy finish. To reiterate, check out this floor spacing.

If you want to watch perfect offense, go back and watch the TCU performance against Nevada in the first half of that game (the full game is on YouTube). They were good for most of the game, but that first half was on another level. Dixon has it rolling in Fort Worth, and Big 12 opponents and opposing fans should be nervous. This team will make you look foolish if you’re not careful.

Coming Up: 12/18 vs. Texas Southern

4. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Last Week: 4th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 8-1, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 16th, +21.11

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 112.5, 36th, 5th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 91.4, 9th, 2nd

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 70.5, 149th, 6th



Can we talk about Texas Tech’s home court real quick? I’m not talking about Tech’s homecourt advantage or their fans or anything like that. I actually really like their arena’s seating as it looks like a great place to watch a game. I’m talking about the actual court. Is it the worst court in the conference? Look at this.

Why do we need that stained wood? The NBA has smartly started to transition away from the stained wood, so maybe college basketball is just trailing a few years behind. I just don’t see the need for it. Your colors are red and black, which can look tremendous if you use them properly, but Texas Tech has chosen to substitute out that red/black potential for this stained patio furniture wood color. It’s really bad.

The stained wood in both the paint and the free throw semicircle is especially odd. If I’m being honest, it looks pretty phallic-y. It’s a bit glans-ish. (You will never not see that now when you watch a Texas Tech game; you’re welcome.) If you feel the need to go stained, just do the paint or the FT area but not both.

I know this is probably sacrilegious to say about something from Texas, but does the stained wood outline of Texas have to be SO big? It’s overwhelming. It has an overbearing presence on the entire court. When a player can take a normal 3-pointer and have his/her feet touching the center court logo, your center court logo is too big. The small T within the bigger T would be fine by itself there; I think I’d actually enjoy the simplicity of it. You don’t always need to overthink these things. It is your logo; trust your logo.

One of my favorite writers, Zach Lowe, used to do a ranking of all 30 NBA courts. Here’s a link to one he did while he was at Grantland. I think a post will be coming in the near future that will rank the courts and aesthetics of each Big 12 arena. I have a lot of opinions.

Coming Up: 12/16 vs. Rice, 12/19 vs. Florida Atlantic

5. Oklahoma Sooners (Last Week: 6th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 7-1, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 27th, +18.05

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 113.9, 24th, 4th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 95.9, 41st, 6th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 77.3, 5th, 1st



Oklahoma has always been in the top half or third of the country in tempo, but Lon Kruger’s team is taking it to another level this season. Oklahoma currently is 5th nationally in Kenpom’s Adjusted Tempo metric at 77.3 possessions per game. Take a look at how this Sooners team compares to Lon Kruger’s first six seasons in Norman in that metric.

This Oklahoma team is averaging more than seven possessions more per game than the next closest Lon Kruger team. The increases in possessions/game is partly due to the evolution of basketball. Nearly everyone is playing somewhat faster now, but Oklahoma’s pace is increasing more than most.

There are two ways to have a higher number of possessions in a game. The West Virginia style is spending a short amount of time on defense by forcing your opponents to turn it over or take shots quickly. The other way is to play quickly on offense. This is the Oklahoma style. Their offense has an average possession length of just 13.7 seconds, the 5th shortest in the nation. Compare it to years past in Norman.

Every other Lon Kruger coached team in Norman has been right around an average possession length around 16 seconds — the average was 16.4 seconds from 2012 to 2017. This team is FLYING, comparatively speaking. A lot of this is due to Trae Young. Young plays quickly and finds opportunities quickly, whether that’s through finding his own shot or finding a teammate.

Saturday’s great matchup on the road against Wichita State will be a nice contrast of style. Wichita State doesn’t play outrageously slow or anything — they’re not Virginia. But the Shockers will take their time. They are currently 175th in the nation in Adjusted Tempo at 69.9 possessions per game. The possession count in that game could be indicative of the final outcome.

Coming Up: 12/16 at Wichita State, 12/19 vs. Northwestern State

6. Baylor Bears (Last Week: 5th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 7-2, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 23rd, +18.70

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 112.2, 39th, 6th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 93.5, 20th, 5th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 65.0, 335th, 10th

Baylor is currently in the midst of the easiest part of their schedule, and that’s a good thing, because this team is beat up right now. In Saturday’s win over Randall, Baylor was down to six scholarship players. Terry Maston, Manu Lecomte, and Mark Vital all missed the game due to injury.

I’m a bit worried about this Baylor team. Maston will not be back until some point in January. The depth was already so-so and is now nonexistent in the frontcourt. Here are their first five games of Big 12 play:

• December 29 at Texas Tech

• January 2 vs. TCU

• January 6 vs. Texas

• January 9 at West Virginia

• January 13 at Iowa State

I did this with TCU in last week’s Power Rankings post, but let’s use the Teamcast tool at barttorvik.com. Let’s imagine a worst-case scenario in those first five conference games. Let’s say they lose each road game and split their two home games — I gave them a win versus Texas and a loss to TCU. Look what it does to Baylor’s projected record. Barttorvik projects Baylor to finish 18-13 in the regular season in this particular scenario with a conference record of 8-10.

What would do this for their NCAA Tournament chances? Barttorvik still projects Baylor to be a 10-seed in this scenario, but you start to see some of the volatility of playing in the Big 12. One bad 5-game stretch can greatly harm your outlook, and with Baylor currently suffering through injuries and little depth, there’s not a ton of room for error. Keeping their head above water at the start of conference play will be important for Scott Drew’s team.

Coming Up: 12/14 vs. Texas Southern, 12/17 vs. Savannah State, 12/20 vs. Southern

7. Texas Longhorns (Last Week: 7th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 6-3, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 31st, +17.25

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 107.2, 96th, 10th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 90.0, 6th, 1st

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 68.1, 248th, 8th

I wrote about this in my preseason preview for Texas, and I wish I didn’t have to talk about it time after time with this team, but the perimeter shooting (or lack thereof) is officially a major problem again. In my Texas preview, I wrote this:

Potential Pitfall: Perimeter Play/Shooting I’ve talked about this a lot already, but Texas’s biggest problem last year was their guard play and their perimeter shooting. They arguably had the worst perimeter shooting of any major conference school. They shot 29.2% from 3 as a team, which was 345th in the country. (See the chart I reference in the Texas Tech preview.) They didn’t even shoot FTs well; they shot 65% as a team, which was 322nd in the country. Here was their 3-point shooting last season. So the only 3-point shooter who was good got suspended in January and then left the team this summer. Everyone else was truly bad.

Guess what? Nearly everyone is still truly bad! The only guy shooting well from distance is Andrew Jones, who is currently 16-37 from 3 — a 43% clip. The problem is Andrew Jones is currently injured with a broken wrist and will be out for multiple weeks. Otherwise, it’s really bad. Osetkowski is at 25%. Bamba is at 19%. Roach is at 26%. Davis is at 23%. Febres is at 24%. Coleman is at 27%. The team is at 28% — good for 334th nationally out of 351 teams.

In Tuesday’s loss at home to Michigan, it was more of the same for Texas. They were 5-20 from 3-point range in the loss — it was their 5th game this season where they shot below 30% on 3-pointers. The average 3-point FG% for Big 12 teams is currently right about 37%. Texas has had one single game the entire year where they’ve achieved that percentage.

If I’m a Texas fan, I’m starting to get a bit concerned how similar this team feels on offense to last year’s team. They’re still better. Let’s not completely jump off the bandwagon. Last season, Texas finished as the 177th best offense nationally per Kenpom with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 104.2 points per 100 possessions. This year, Texas has dipped to 96th nationally, with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 107.2. They’re still ahead of last year’s finish, but it’s not considerably better. In their last four games, their average PPP has been 1.01. In their first four games, their average PPP was 1.09. Obviously, competition is a factor, but those first five games included games against Butler and Duke.

Take a look at the chart below, which shows the Four Factors for this season’s Texas’ offense compared to the 2017 season. See what I mean about the similarity between the two years? Their eFG% and TO% are slightly better which accounts for the 3 point difference in Adjusted Offensive Effieciency between this season and last season, but it’s all feeling a bit familiar.

It all comes down to shooting in my mind. In Shaka Smart’s first season in Texas, the Longhorns’ offense wasn’t outrageously good, but it was effective. They were ranked 49th nationally with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 113.0. What was the main difference? That team shot 34.1% from 3-point range while the 2017 team shot 29.2% and this team is currently shooting an even worse 28.4%.

It’s a good thing this team is currently 6th in Kenpom in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Riding that defense is going to be the only thing that gives them a chance to make it to the NCAA Tournament, because this offense looks like the worst in the Big 12 by a fair margin yet again.

Coming Up: 12/16 vs. Louisiana Tech, 12/18 vs. Tennessee State

8. Kansas State Wildcats (Last Week: 8th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 8-2, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 42nd, +15.09

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 111.8, 41st, 7th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 96.8, 50th, 8th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 66.4, 313th, 9th



I hate to sound like a broken record. I don’t want to be an “I told you so” guy. But when you’re right, you’re right. I wrote in my season preview for Kansas State how this team was entirely too dependent on the shooting of Kamau Stokes and Barry Brown, two guys who have been inconsistent shooters in their college careers.

In last weekend’s loss to Tulsa, you saw what happens when those two guys struggle. Brown went 4-13 from the field and 0-7 from 3-point range. Stokes went 3-12 from the field and 1-8 from 3-point range. The result? Kansas State scored 54 points and posted a PPP of just 0.82, by far their worst offensive game of the season. As a whole, the team shot 4-31 on 3-pointers — a 13% mark.

I don’t want to overreact to one game, hence why I didn’t drop them in this week’s Power Rankings. Sometimes, shots just don’t fall. This was one of those games for Kansas State. Xavier Sneed and Dean Wade also struggled — Sneed was 2-8 from 3-point range and Wade was 1-4. So this single game wasn’t all on the shoulders of Brown and Stokes. But this is something that is worth monitoring. As Brown and Stokes go, the win chances of Kansas State so often go as well.

Coming Up: 12/16 vs. SE Missouri State, 12/20 at Washington State in Spokane

9. Iowa State Cyclones (Last Week: 9th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 7-2, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 64th, +10.75

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 111.1, 50th, 8th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 100.4, 102nd, 10th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 70.0, 171st, 7th

Last week, I used the Iowa State space to talk about the play of a current freshman — Lindell Wigginton. This week, I’m going to talk about a different freshman — redshirt freshman Cameron Lard. Lard was suspended for Iowa State’s first two games of the regular season, so the Cyclones are undefeated when the 6’9″, 220-pound big is in the lineup as Iowa State has gone 7-0 since their 0-2 start.

He is currently one of the two bigs off the bench alongside Hans Brase (more on him in a second). Lard is averaging 9.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks while playing only 17 minutes per game. He currently has the highest Offensive Rating on the team at 127.1, per Kenpom. He’s shooting 30-45 from the field (all 2-pointers) — a 67% clip. His Block Rate is 11.8%, which is by far the highest for Iowa State and would rank 3rd in the Big 12 (Lard currently does not qualify per Kenpom’s condition of playing 40% of team minutes over the season).

He has three main responsibilities when he’s in the game — run the floor, rebound the basketball, and protect the rim. He’s currently doing those three things quite well. Here’s Lard in action running the court.

I love that first play. Lard closes out on a shooter after a handoff, and then he’s off. He’s out of the picture immediately. Weiler-Babb pushes the ball up the court and finds the already-planted-in-the-paint Lard for an easy dunk. Those types of plays not only are important because they’re scoring plays, but when you’re playing at home, it juices that Hilton Magic crowd. Rim-running is such an underrated skill in a big guy. It sounds simple. Being able to run fast enough down the court to beat your opponent and then being able to finish easily with a dunk is not overly complicated, but it’s not talked about often. Lard is running the court like Jameel McKay did for Iowa State in 2015 during his junior season.

Lard has also developed a nice chemistry with fellow big man, Hans Brase. Brase also comes off the bench, but Lard-Brase might be Iowa State’s best frontcourt combination. Brase is a grad transfer from Princeton who also missed Iowa State’s first two games (he missed due to injury). Brase provides senior experience, floor spacing, and good passing that no other ISU big man does. Check out some of the high-low action that Brase and Lard pulled off in last week’s win over Iowa.

These two mesh well off each other. Lard, Solomon Young, and Jeff Beverly (Young and Beverly currently start in the frountcourt for Iowa State) are somewhat similar players. Each needs to be in or around the paint to be effective. Brase doesn’t. And because of that, it gives Lard ample room to operate when he’s in there with Brase. Some might say either Lard or Brase needs to be in the starting lineup alongside Young. At this point in time, it seems unnecessary to me. Beverly is struggling, but bringing Lard and Brase off the bench provides nice energy and effectiveness in times of need. I wouldn’t fix anything that’s not broken considering the current 7-game winning streak for Iowa State.

Coming Up: 12/16 vs. Northern Iowa in Des Moines, 12/20 vs. Maryland Eastern Shore

10. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Last Week: 10th)

Current Record (Overall/Conference): 7-2, 0-0

Kenpom Ranking and AdjEM: 55th, +13.00

Adj. Offense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 109.6, 62nd, 9th

Adj. Defense (Efficiency, National Rank, Conference Rank): 96.6, 46th, 7th

Adj. Tempo (Possessions/Game, National Rank, Conference Rank): 71.0, 120th, 5th



It’s clear that Mike Boynton’s primary focus for this Oklahoma State team in his first year was to improve defensively. The Cowboys lost Jawun Evans, Phil Forte, and Leyton Hammonds off of last year’s team. The offense wasn’t going to be anywhere close to how good it was last season. But the defense could improve.

Last season, Oklahoma State finished 155th nationally in Kenpom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at 103.5 points per 100 possessions. They allowed over 90 points nine different times. To say defense wasn’t the team’s forte would be an understatement. This season, Oklahoma State is currently 46th nationally in Adjusted Defense at 96.6 points per 100 possessions.

How are they doing it? Mike Boynton has implemented an intense ball pressure, heavy ball denial defense. The man defending the PG is often picking him up full-court, just to let him know he’s there. Brandon Averette seems to particularly enjoy doing this. Off-ball defenders are playing up the line, denying entry passes to the wing and high post whenever they can. There’s an intensity to this year’s defense that wasn’t there last season.

Check out this clip which highlights three possessions from Oklahoma State’s home loss to Wichita State.

That ball pressure and passing lane denial is INTENSE. That type of defense was much more common 15-20 years ago in college basketball. Defenses have become more conservative as ball-handling and player skill has increased. There’s less risk in playing a pack-line defense. You open yourself for easy buckets playing this type of pressure. But when it works, like it did in these three possessions, it works beautifully. I mean, look at this dedication.

In the first possession of the clip above, Lindy Waters and Cameron McGriff are both so dedicated to denying passing lanes that they both scramble to deny the passing lane to Conner Frankamp on the right wing and leave the ball. Obviously, that’s not what you want, but it shows that this defensive style has been successfully ingrained in Oklahoma State’s players.

This defensive style does open up Oklahoma State to some easy baskets. In this clip, you can see what happens when an offense withstands the pressure and finds an open passing lane.

Oklahoma State plays good defense for the majority of the possession but one lost man on a backcut results in an easy basket for Wichita State. Those will happen; Mike Boynton will have to deal with those. But this is the way this team will have to play this season. They will struggle on offense throughout the season; they don’t have the shot creation or playmaking abilities to be great on that end. If they want to have a shot at the NCAA Tournament, defense will be the ticket to get them there.

Coming Up: 12/16 vs. Florida State in Miami, 12/19 vs. Tulsa