As of today, we are exactly six months away from the 92nd Oscars and many of the top contenders have yet to be released. However, with most of the major festival lineups being announced and the awards race narratives taking shape, we are starting to get a vague picture of what awards season will look like. In this two-part series, I will be looking at most (if not all) of the top contenders in major categories, in no particular order, and gauging their chances at the upcoming Academy Awards. Let’s dive in!

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Oscar Chances: VERY HIGH

Potential Categories: Picture, Director, Lead Actor (DiCaprio), Supporting Actor (Pitt), Supporting Actress (Robbie), Original Screenplay

Let’s start with the first and most obvious film, arguably the only legitimate contender to be released thus far in 2019. Tarantino’s latest film is a massive love letter to Hollywood, something that Academy voters will definitely gravitate towards. It’s his least violent and most “normal” film in ages, so it’s not like he will alienate those older voters like some of his past films might have. There are two major obstacles standing in this film’s way: its July release, which means the conversation could peter out by the time voting begins, and controversy surrounding Tarantino for one thing or another. What will it be this year: his alleged mistreatment of female characters, his proliferation of violence, his connection to Harvey Weinstein, or his rumored abusive tendencies in the director’s chair? Rest assured the conversation will pick up in full force come December/January. That shouldn’t affect DiCaprio and Pitt’s chances in the acting races, where I believe they are both the frontrunners to win it all. Margot Robbie has a shot at making it, but I believe she’s much more likely to make it in for another film…which I’ll discuss right now!

Fair and Balanced

Oscar Chances: HIGH

Potential Categories: Picture, Director, Lead Actress (Theron), Supporting Actress (Kidman & Robbie), Supporting Actor (Lithgow), Original Screenplay

This is the Vice of 2019: a political biopic with a satirical edge, written by The Big Short‘s Oscar co-winner Charles Randolph. It follows the behind-the-scenes happenings of Fox News, particularly the relationship between head honcho Roger Ailes and the many female pundits he harassed while in power. Assuming it’s even remotely good, this will be a goldmine for acting nominations, with several ladies (Charlize Theron, Margot Robbie, Nicole Kidman) and one man (John Lithgow) sure to make a lot of noise. I’m sure the screenplay will also draw attention, although I’m not so sure about Jay Roach at the helm, since he’s previously best known for comedies like Austin Powers and Meet the Parents. Then again, if you told me five years ago that Adam McKay and one of the Farrelly brothers would be Oscar winners I wouldn’t have believed you. So who knows?

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Oscar Chances: MEDIUM-HIGH

Potential Categories: Picture, Director, Lead Actor (Hanks), Supporting Actor (Rhys), Adapted Screenplay

The past two years have seen a resurgence in public affection for Mr. Rogers. And with the Rogers documentary getting snubbed at last year’s ceremony, I’m sure voters will look to rectify things by nominating this in major categories. Tom Hanks is the most obvious inclusion, and if the film underperforms and only earns one or two nominations, he’s the most likely to make it. Marielle Heller is a dark horse Directing nominee; she made waves with Can You Ever Forgive Me? last year and could get a boost if there is a big push for a female nominee as there often is (although Greta Gerwig will give her a run for her money). Matthew Rhys could also make his way into the conversation; he’s become a television darling in the past two years winning awards for his work in The Americans, so he could make the jump to the big screen in the same way Allison Janney and Regina King did in the past few years.

Ford v. Ferrari

Oscar Chances: MEDIUM-HIGH

Possible Categories: Picture, Director, Lead Actor (Damon), Supporting Actor (Bale), Original Screenplay

Formula One films haven’t fared too well at the Oscars this decade, with films like Rush and Senna underperforming despite critical raves. But this could very well be the one to break through to the Oscars, with a star-studded cast and major studio putting big money behind it. This is the perennial “dad movie” of 2019, a mainstream thrill ride with enough prestige to earn nominations, so I expect this to earn many nominations if the film is a box office hit, which it is certainly poised to be. Matt Damon and Christian Bale are almost locks for the acting categories as two former winners that the Academy clearly loves, while director James Mangold could get some love after making this and 2017 favorite Logan back to back.

Jojo Rabbit

Oscar Chances: HIGH

Possible Categories: Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Johansson & Mackenzie), Supporting Actor (Waititi), Adapted Screenplay

So far this Hitler satire is generating quite a bit of buzz, largely on the strength of writer-director Taika Waititi. This is his passion project that he’s been dying to make for ages, and was finally given the freedom to make it after a string of big-budget hits (and some likely behind-the-scenes politics, since he signed on to a mystery Fox Searchlight project releasing next year before Thor 4). It could be a player in the Best Picture category, but its most likely places to make waves are in the Supporting Female (Scarlett Johansson and Thomasin Mackenzie) and Adapted Screenplay categories. This is ScarJo’s year between this and Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story (to be discussed in Part 2), and she’s very likely to earn at least one acting nom between the two, if not both. And while the Academy does have a natural aversion to “weird” films like this one, films like The Favourite in recent years indicate they are open to fresh stories and styles.

Harriet

Oscar Chances: MEDIUM

Possible Categories: Picture, Lead Actress (Erivo), Original Screenplay

The Harriet Tubman biopic comes out in the heart of awards season in late December, indicating the studio has high hopes for its Oscar chances. However, the first trailer was less than enthralling, and the film bears some similarities to recent films like Selma and The Wife, which haven’t fared all that well at the Oscars outside of one or two nominations. Cynthia Erivo is almost certainly making it in for her leading role as Tubman, and many pundits have her pegged as the frontrunner in the category. It would take something truly special for this to make it into Picture and beyond, so unless it gives us something that biopics haven’t done to death already, I’m staying bearish on Harriet until further notice.

The Goldfinch

Oscar Chances: MEDIUM

Possible Categories: Picture, Lead Actor (Elgort), Supporting Actress (Nicole Kidman), Supporting Actor (Wilson), Adapted Screenplay

Not gonna lie, I’m stoked for this movie for one reason and one reason only: Roger Deakins is the cinematographer. This novel adaptation stars Ansel Elgort as a survivor of a terrorist bombing in his childhood. It’s hard to say how much hype there will be for this one in such a crowded year, but it has Amazon Studios behind it and a good mix of young and veteran stars (Elgort, Nicole Kidman, and Luke Wilson), which could attract attention. Deakins is almost guaranteed a nomination at this point, especially if the film shows up in above-the-line categories, but I am a bit doubtful about it and will reserve judgment until I’ve seen the film next month.

The Laundromat

Oscar Chances: MEDIUM-HIGH

Possible Categories: Picture, Director, Lead Actress (Streep), Supporting Actor (Oldman & Banderas), Adapted Screenplay

The latest Steven Soderbergh project tells the story of the Panama Papers. Remember them? Those documents exposing major off-shore tax evasion that were supposed to change the world but were ignored instead? It’s definitely an explosive and timely subject matter with a star-studded cast and crew full of former winners, from Soderbergh to actors Meryl Streep, Gary Oldman, and Antonio Banderas. The biggest problem is that this is a Netflix film, which means it will be splitting attention between their two big-ticket items The Irishman and Marriage Story. Will that kill the film’s chances at nominations? Not necessarily; Meryl Streep is a good bet in Actress while it could sneak into Picture and Screenplay if the stars align. And if the film ends up being amazing (unlikely but possible), it might jump the ranks for Netflix when it comes time to market their films and put awards campaigns together.

The Farewell

Oscar Chances: MEDIUM-LOW

Possible Categories: Picture, Lead Actress (Awkwafina), Adapted Screenplay

The other possible contender that has released already this year is this lovely little A24 drama about the Chinese family saying goodbye to their ailing matriarch. The film I would liken it most to is 2017’s The Big Sick, which had aspirations for Best Picture but had to settle for a lone screenwriting nod. But with such insane critical notice and great word-of-mouth so early into its theatrical run, it isn’t impossible to see this entering the awards conversation this winter. The two most likely places it can compete are in Screenplay for Lulu Wang, who has become a conduit for diversity discussions in Hollywood in the wake of her film’s release, and Lead Actress for Awkwafina, a rising comedic star with her first stellar dramatic performance. Both are slight long shots, but not totally impossible depending on how strong the categories end up being.

Honey Boy

Oscar Chances: MEDIUM-LOW

Possible Categories: Lead Actor (Hedges), Supporting Actor (Labeouf), Original Screenplay

Shia Labeouf has basically never been in the Oscar conversation, but he has two indie films coming out this year that could generate buzz. The first is Honey Boy, a Sundance fave that he wrote and co-stars in…a semi-autobiographical tale of his own childhood, in which Lucas Hedges plays a younger version of himself while Labeouf plays his own abusive father. From early reactions, it sounds like a raw and very personal story that could be enough to get him some attention this winter. Maybe not in many categories, but in one or two. I can already imagine the “comeback story” narrative being pushed for Labeouf to earn some accolades after a very public period of breakdowns.

Parasite

Oscar Chances: MEDIUM

Possible Categories: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay

Korean director Bong Joon-ho’s latest film has been racking up the gold ever since its debut at Cannes Film Festival, winning top honors there and at several other festivals it has screened at. Neon picked up the film for US distribution in mid-October, a good time for an Oscar contender to start generating buzz. I don’t expect this to be the next Roma, but I say that without having seen the film. It could be amazing, but it’s almost definitely weird and not to the taste of many voters. It’s also competing for attention with another foreign film to be discussed later (Pain and Glory), lowering its chances at above-the-line consideration. Still, if it really is that good, maybe it finds success anyway.

1917

Oscar Chances: HIGH

Possible Categories: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay

This WWI war flick has a lot of buzz behind it, and it could become the Dunkirk of 2019 and make major waves without earning any acting nominations. Rumor has it that the film is shot in the style of one take (a la 2014’s Birdman) and is a unique and creative take on how to shoot war films. The story goes that Roger Deakins and his entire crew jumped ship from the flailing Bond 25 production onto this one at the last second because they believed it could be something truly special. The first trailer wasn’t exactly earth-shattering, but supposedly there is a lot more to it that they aren’t showing us yet, hoping to wow us all upon release in late December. Sam Mendes won the Oscar exactly twenty years ago for American Beauty and could return to glory for this film if it pans out.

Little Women

Oscar Chances: HIGH

Possible Categories: Picture, Director, Lead Actress (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Watson, Pugh & Streep), Adapted Screenplay

Greta Gerwig is back in the Oscar conversation after a successful 2017 campaign with Lady Bird. The fact that she failed to take home any awards that year will probably help her in the long run, since voters who adored her previous film will be more likely to get her nominated again this year for another shot at glory. She also has the benefit of several ladies who’ve found Oscar success before (Saoirse Ronan and Meryl Streep among others) and a beloved story that has been done many times but never found real mainstream success. There is also the narrative that she could win a screenwriting award on the same night as her longtime romantic partner Noah Baumbach (whose film will be discussed later).

Queen and Slim

Oscar Chances: MEDIUM-LOW

Possible Categories: Picture, Director, Lead Actor (Kaluuya), Lead Actress (Turner-Smith), Original Screenplay

The “black Bonnie & Clyde” has a lot going for it, especially its timely themes and stylish visuals. Director Melina Matsoukas’s debut is reportedly slick and a lot of fun while also very socially conscious with a lot to say. Daniel Kaluuya is already an Oscar nominee and should’ve earned a second for last year’s Widows. I fear that this could fall into a similar trap that Widows did – another black-led thriller that failed to perform well at all during awards season. However, it does have a late November release and a major studio behind it (Universal) so I’m not writing it off completely yet. Still, I’m leaving it out of my predictions for the time being until I hear what the conversation sounds like at release.

The Irishman

Oscar Chances: HIGH

Possible Categories: Picture, Director, Lead Actor (DeNiro), Supporting Actor (Pacino & Pesci), Adapted Screenplay

Martin Scorcese’s new flick has been shrouded in secrecy until just a couple weeks ago, when it was announced at a slew of festivals and released a teaser trailer. It had an infamously difficult production, with its de-aging technology reportedly causing issues and causing the budget to balloon out of control. I suspect that will be reason enough for Netflix to push it on the big stage in hopes of getting something back on their investment. But hey, that’s assuming the movie isn’t any good, and it very well could be another Scorcese masterpiece, in which case all of this is moot and it’ll do very well regardless.

Just Mercy

Oscar Chances: MEDIUM

Possible Categories: Picture, Lead Actor (Jordan), Supporting Actor (Foxx), Adapted Screenplay

Just Mercy is the new Destin Daniel Cretton film (the writer-director of the great Short Term 12 from a few years ago), starring Michael B. Jordan as a lawyer fighting to free an innocent man imprisoned for murder (Jamie Foxx). It’s a true story that could resonate deeply with voters and finally earn Michael B. Jordan the Oscar nomination he’s long deserved. After stellar performances in films like Black Panther, Fruitvale Station and the Creed series, it’s about time he got some Academy love! Jamie Fox is already an Oscar winner, but here he gets a juicy, emotional role that could get him back in the conversation for another. I don’t know if the film will have that much staying power in other categories, but I guess we’ll have to wait and see how good the film is before we pass judgment.

The Report

Oscar Chances: MEDIUM

Possible Categories: Picture, Director, Lead Actor (Driver), Supporting Actress (Bening), Original Screenplay

The Report follows Daniel Jones (Adam Driver), an investigator who exposes the CIA’s brutal interrogation practices in the wake of 9/11. Annette Bening co-stars as Senator Diane Feinstein, who joins the cause to expose the CIA and the White House’s immoral actions. This was another Sundance hit that drew particular praise for Adam Driver, who earned his first Oscar nom for last year’s BlacKkKlansman and is poised for more love. I do think this film has some unfortunate crossover with other films in contention this year; The Laundromat tackles similar subject matter while Driver also has aspirations for his role in Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story. And director Scott Z. Burns isn’t exactly a name that commands respect and awards love, so I’m not sure if this is the film that will take the ceremony by storm. Still, it’s earned some love thus far and could have legs.

The Aeronauts

Oscar Chances: MEDIUM-HIGH

Possible Categories: Picture, Lead Actor (Redmayne), Lead Actress (Jones), Original Screenplay

The Aeronauts reunites The Theory of Everything co-stars Eddie Redmayne and Felicity Jones as two 19th century scientists who become stranded in a high-altitude gas balloon. It’s helmed by Tom Harper (not to be confused with Tom Hooper, who is making that dreadful-looking Cats musical), previously best known for his work on Peaky Blinders and other British series. It’s being pushed by Amazon, who other than Disney has the most money to throw at awards campaigns, so if the film is halfway decent I expect it to be pushed hard. I’m not sure how likely a survival flick is to succeed in such a crowded year, even with two proven Oscar stars, but early reception has been strong so I’m certainly not writing it off.

Downton Abbey

Oscar Chances: LOW

Possible Categories: Picture, Lead Actor (Bonneville), Supporting Actress (Smith), Supporting Actor (Carter), Adapted Screenplay

Look, I’ve never seen this show and have no intention of watching the film unless it gets mega-raves. It’s coming out in September, a big no-no for awards hopefuls, and is based on an award-winning television show, which means die-hard fans will be disappointed by the runtime and newcomers will be confused by the unfamiliar characters. This movie would have to be really f&%$@!& good for it to have any shot; otherwise, it can maybe get an actor or two nominated but it will be absent elsewhere.

Us

Oscar Chances: MEDIUM-LOW

Possible Categories: Lead Actress (Nyong’o), Original Screenplay

I don’t think Jordan Peele’s sophomore effort will garner much love this year, unfortunately. It hasn’t had nearly the cultural impact Get Out did, and while it was certainly viewed and enjoyed, the conversation has mostly died out by now. However, it could very well get a boost if enough Peele fans decide to reward him for his continued success and his contributions to the horror genre. I’m especially holding out hope for Lupita Nyong’o and her deliciously-duplicitous performance, but I have a bad feeling she won’t stand a chance either.

Check out Part 2 of my list here!

You also can read my official (way-too-early) Oscar predictions or head over to the home page for film reviews and analyses! Hope to see you again soon.

-Austin Daniel

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