ANGELA MERKEL’S Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian partners (the CSU) are comfortably in front of their Social Democratic (SPD) coalition partners ahead of Germany’s general election on September 24th. The emergence of Martin Schulz as the SPD candidate for chancellor in January caused the party to surge briefly in the polls, before falling back. Its defeat at the state election in North-Rhine Westphalia, Germany’s largest state, in May, was a sore blow for the party and confirmed its relapse.

Meanwhile the nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) has fallen back since last year, when it looked set to be the third-largest party. Even the Berlin terror attack in December failed to give the anti-immigration party a sustained boost. But it is on track to clear the 5% hurdle needed to enter the Bundestag, giving post-war Germany its first six-party parliament (seven, counting the CSU separately).

The CDU/CSU is unlikely to win a majority of Bundestag seats, but it is not clear with which party or parties Mrs Merkel might govern. Most likely are a new grand coalition with the SPD or a new government with one or both of the FDP and Greens. Mr Schulz’s refusal to rule out a “red-red-green” coalition with The Left may hurt him among moderate voters; for that reason he prefers to talk up a “traffic light” coalition with the FDP and Greens. But on the current numbers such discussions are academic: after 12 years at Germany’s helm Mrs Merkel looks safely on track for a fourth term as chancellor.