BRUNCH EDITION -- QUEST FOR SILVER: How ESPN/ABC stole Nate Silver from The New York Times -- Young data guru promised Oscars role; may expand franchise to education, economics, weather Presented by

BEHIND THE CURTAIN – COURTING NATE SILVER: The battle for data whiz Nate Silver, fought secretly and aggressively by several of the nation’s top news executives for the better part of a year, was won by ESPN and ABC News (both part of The Walt Disney Company) after the 35-year-old was promised extensive air time, a role in the Oscars (airing on ABC through at least 2020), and a digital empire that may include websites devoted to weather, education, economics and other topics. When it came to money, Silver was aggressive but not greedy, according to people familiar with the negotiations. Instead, he was focused on how he could expand the franchise he had built around FiveThirtyEight (the total number of electoral votes). FiveThirtyEight.com began as a standalone blog in 2008, and became part of NYTimes.com in 2010 as part of a three-year licensing agreement that ends next month.

In a stroke of luck for Silver, the negotiations began shortly after the frenzy over his 2012 forecasts showing President Obama would be easily reelected, which had become a running topic on cable news and late-night television – and even drew a shout-out from the president himself. There was early interest from NBC and Bloomberg. But for many months, Silver’s conversations have pitted ESPN/ABC against The Times. Executive Editor Jill Abramson led the Times negotiations, and retaining Silver was such as high priority that publisher and chairman Arthur Ochs Sulzberger Jr. and CEO Mark Thompson were involved. The reasons Times executives were so obsessed with Silver were both financial and psychic:


--On the financial side, Silver was a huge traffic driver for NYTimes.com in political years. On Election Day 2012, The New Republic’s Mark Tracy called Silver a “One-Man Traffic Machine for the Times” and “The Times’s biggest brand”: ““FiveThirtyEight is drawing huge traffic,’ … Abramson told me … ‘What’s interesting is a lot of the traffic is coming just for Nate.’ … [E]arlier this year, somewhere between 10 and 20 percent of [visits to The Times’s politics coverage] included a stop at FiveThirtyEight, last week that figure was 71 percent. … Silver’s blog has buoyed more than just the politics coverage, becoming a significant traffic-driver for the site as a whole. Earlier this year, approximately 1 percent of visits to the New York Times included FiveThirtyEight. … Yesterday, it was 20 percent.”

--On the psychic side, Abramson and Washington Bureau Chief David Leonhardt, another key player in the drive to keep Silver, saw his brand-within-a-brand as a wave of the future. They wanted Silver to bring his secret sauce to other areas of coverage. And they want to develop other Nate Silvers, in the mold of Andrew Ross Sorkin’s pioneering DealBook. So Silver’s role as the template increased his value to The Times.

Silver had told The Times that he wanted to expand to weather, economics and anyplace else at The Times that had statistics and numbers he could bring to life. He had already begun doing that, with “Claims on I.R.S. Are Challenged By Probability,” which ran in the paper, as did an examination of Chief Justice John Roberts’s use of statistics, along with “Health Care Drives Increase in Government Spending” and “Congressional Proposal Could Create ‘Tax Bubble.’” In December, Silver had his first front-page story in the print paper.

Early this year, The Times laid out a plan that would give Silver a staff of six to 12 bloggers to focus on a variety of topics, modeled on Ezra Klein’s Wonkblog at The Washington Post. The plan was so specific that it named Megan Liberman, an up-and-coming deputy news editor at The Times, as Silver’s editor. As recently as last month, some executives at The Times were confident Silver would stay, mainly because they had given him everything he had asked for. Silver is very interested in prestige, and the prestige of The Times was a huge deal to him. But Silver, who first made his name with forecasts for Major League Baseball players, still loves sports. At times, he felt unwelcome in the Times Sports section, and seemed to struggle to fit into its culture. The section is among the most innovative at the paper, but not in the areas that are Silver’s wheelhouse.

ESPN’s recruitment drive was led by President John Skipper along with Marie Donoghue, senior vice president of global strategy, business development and business affairs, who reports to Skipper; and David Cho, publisher of ESPN's Grantland website. Bill Simmons also talked to Silver, adding a celebrity push.Silver’s youth and credibility were hugely attractive. The model they proposed to Silver was Bill Simmons, “The Sports Guy,” who has a personal megabrand within the ESPN brand through his “B.S. Report,” blogs and podcasts. ESPN kept Simmons in part by making him editor-in-chief of a new ESPN website, Grantland.com, devoted to long-form journalism. In the quest for Silver, ESPN enlisted ABC News, which could provide a high-profile platform during elections and conventions. And Silver clicked with ABC’s political personalities: George Stephanopoulos, Jonathan Karl, Jeff Zeleny and Rick Klein.

ESPN has deep pockets, and the rich, multi-platform offer to Silver, funded mostly by ESPN, is a drop in the bucket. Under the deal, to be announced soon, his flagship will return to FiveThirtyEight.com, which currently clicks through to NYTimes.com. The business model mirrors Grantland’s: a strong, independent brand that ladders up to the bigger brand of ESPN (and, in this case, ABC News). Nate will appear on the air on ESPN and ABC, and will get “verticals,” or web hubs, devoted to a variety of new topics. He’s very interested in education, so there’s been a lot of conversation about that. And, of course, weather and economics. His Oscars predictions did well for The Times, and now he’ll work for the TV home of the Oscars.

Silver informed Abramson of his decision on Friday. She was none too pleased – a yearlong strategy, up in smoke. And Abramson is sensitive to the perception of Disney raiding The Times: Don Van Natta Jr., who was part of two Pulitzer-winning teams at the Times and produced muscular exposés on the British tabloid hacking scandal, became a senior writer for ESPN at the beginning of 2012. And Times correspondents Jeff Zeleny and Susan Saulny were named ABC correspondents in February. In response for a request to comment, The Times provided a 21-word statement: “We valued our partnership with Nate, particularly during the 2012 election campaign, and we wish him every success in the future.”

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2013 WATCH – “Debate shows Virginia race all about trust,” by James Hohmann in Hot Springs, Va.: “They traded shots over ethics and jobs, transportation policy and Obamacare. But the 90-minute showdown between Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Terry McAuliffe on Saturday was fundamentally a debate about trust. As in: … you just can’t trust the other guy. Polls show a huge swath of the Virginia electorate still unsure what to think of the two men trying to lead the Old Dominion. So each candidate spent their first debate trying to fill in the blanks, by casting his opponent as too slick by half. McAuliffe, in Cuccinelli’s telling, is someone who professes to care about the state — but is actually an unprincipled D.C. wheeler-dealer with a shady business past whose ego led him to run for governor. Cuccinelli, McAuliffe countered in so many words, has said before that the economy is his driving concern — only to quickly reemerge as the zealot on social issues that has made him a hero of the religious right. ‘You are the true Trojan horse of Virginia politics,’ McAuliffe told his Republican rival. … Virginia needs a governor they can trust, not someone who tells them what they want to hear,’ Cuccinelli said …

“The lively debate at the Homestead resort in southwestern Virginia foreshadowed three months of nastiness in store before the November election. Both candidates were disciplined, sticking to the core messages that polls indicate give them the best chance of moving voters. McAuliffe benefited from the debate’s heavy emphasis on the scandal swirling around Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell. Cuccinelli did not initially disclose gifts from the businessman at the center of the firestorm, Star Scientific CEO Jonnie Williams, Sr., and invested in the company’s stock without reporting it. … Democrats believe this attack, which they plan to push with millions of dollars in ads, can give them the decisive advantage on the question of trust. … Cuccinelli called on McAuliffe to follow his lead and release eight years of tax returns, something the Democrat pushed Mitt Romney to do last year but has thus far refused to do himself. … When the candidates got to question each other, McAuliffe noted that Cuccinelli, as a candidate for the state legislature in 2002, told voters he would focus on transportation, only to pivot back to social matters … Cuccinelli said voters should be suspicious that McAuliffe would pad state public works contracts to benefit his union supporters, and mocked the Democrat for claiming a share of credit for the bipartisan transportation package.” http://politi.co/134Mbzb

--HOW IT’S PLAYING: WashPost, top of col. 1, “Personal jabs by McAuliffe, Cuccinelli.” http://wapo.st/17vw4ym

DEEP DIVE -- L.A. Times 2-col. lead, “Top officers’ quarters are their castles: A Pentagon report sheds light on costs of luxury housing at a time of budget cuts,” by David S. Cloud in Coral Gables, Fla.: “Marine Gen. John F. Kelly works in a fortress-like headquarters near the Miami airport. Starting this fall, he will live in Casa Sur, an elegant home with a pool and gardens on one of the area's swankiest streets. The five-bedroom residence, across the street from the famed Biltmore Golf Course, is provided rent-free to Kelly as head of U.S. Southern Command, which oversees military operations in the Caribbean Latin America. The cost to taxpayers? $160,000 a year, plus $402,000 for renovations and security improvements now underway. Casa Sur is one of hundreds of high-end homes, villas and mansions where senior generals and admirals are billeted, according to a Pentagon report prepared for Congress last month but not publicly released. … The perks for top military brass, a Pentagon tradition, are under increasing scrutiny in Congress at a time when … the sequester [has] forced the Pentagon to cut services, close facilities, cancel training and missions, and furlough 680,000 civilian workers. …

“In the annual appropriations bill for military construction approved by a House committee last month, lawmakers criticized the Pentagon for the ‘excessive cost’ of maintaining ‘large and aging’ homes and for the ‘apparent unwillingness on the part of the [military] services to seek less expensive alternatives.’ … Generals and admirals say they need large houses with high security — as well as cooks and gardeners — because they often host visiting dignitaries or preside at ceremonial events. Keeping pricey properties makes fiscal sense, they argue, because the Pentagon either already owns them or would waste money finding a suitable rental every time a senior officer is moved to a new command. Yet changes are underway. … Three officers assigned to the NATO naval base in Naples, Italy, … have homes that exceed allowable expenses for their jobs, the report says. One of them, the commander of Submarine Group 8, occupies Villa de Lorio, a 6,600-square-foot villa in Naples leased for $172,000 a year. … Leases … will be canceled next year for Villa Anna, home to the commander of Navy Region Europe, and Villa Maria, residence for the operations director of Allied Joint Force Command. ….

“At Ft. Myer, on a bluff in Virginia overlooking Washington, a row of stately red brick Victorians is reserved for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the chiefs of staff of the Army and Air Force and other senior officers. The sequester has forced cancellation of Tuesday swim lessons at the Ft. Myer Officers Club pool, and other base facilities have been closed one day a week. But otherwise the budget cuts have not pinched much yet, base spokeswoman Mary Ann Hodges said. ‘We're a different kind of installation — more ceremonial’ … Generals Row, nine colonnaded Beaux Arts residences for senior Army generals at Ft. Lesley McNair, overlooks the Potomac and Anacostia rivers. Tennis courts and a pool take up part of the parade ground where four conspirators in Abraham Lincoln's assassination were hanged.” http://lat.ms/12Fey7r

REMEMBERING HELEN THOMAS – N.Y. Times A1, with a pic, “50 Years of Tough Questions and ‘Thank You, Mr. President,’” by David Stout, with Mark Landler: “Helen Thomas, whose keen curiosity, unquenchable drive and celebrated constancy made her a trailblazing White House correspondent in a press corps dominated by men and who was later regarded as the dean of the White House briefing room, died on Saturday at her home in Washington. She was 92. … Ms. Thomas covered every president from John F. Kennedy to Barack Obama for United Press International and, later, Hearst Newspapers. … [H]er status [was] ratified by her signature line at the end of every White House news conference: ‘Thank you, Mr. President.’ Her blunt questions and sharp tone made her a familiar personality not only in the parochial world inside the Washington Beltway but also to television audiences across the country. … In 1971, Ms. Thomas married Douglas Cornell, a widower, who was about to retire as a White House reporter for The A.P. and was 14 years her senior. He died in 1982. …

“In an interview with The New York Times in May 2006, Ms. Thomas was characteristically uncompromising and unapologetic. ‘How would you define the difference between a probing question and a rude one?’ she was asked. ‘I don’t think there are any rude questions,’ she said.” http://nyti.ms/18wBBcx

--PRESIDENT OBAMA statement: “Michelle and I were saddened to learn of the passing of Helen Thomas. Helen was a true pioneer, opening doors and breaking down barriers for generations of women in journalism. She covered every White House since President Kennedy’s, and during that time she never failed to keep presidents – myself included – on their toes. What made Helen the ‘Dean of the White House Press Corps’ was not just the length of her tenure, but her fierce belief that our democracy works best when we ask tough questions and hold our leaders to account. Our thoughts are with Helen’s family, her friends, and the colleagues who respected her so deeply.”

--STEVE THOMMA, president of the White House Correspondents’ Association: “Helen Thomas was a trailblazer in journalism and in the White House press corps, covering presidents from John F. Kennedy through Barack Obama. Starting with the Kennedy administration, she was the first woman to cover the president and not just the First Lady. At her urging in 1962, Kennedy said he would not attend the annual dinner of the White House Correspondents’ Association unless it was opened to women for the first time. It was. And in 1975-76, she served as the first woman president of the association. Women and men who’ve followed in the press corps all owe a debt of gratitude for the work Helen did and the doors she opened. All of our journalism is the better for it.”

--CARL LEUBSDORF announced her death in a 9:28 a.m. email to Gridiron Club members: “Former Gridiron Club president Helen Thomas, our first female member, died Saturday morning at her Washington apartment after a long illness. She would have been 93 next month.”

--PLAYBOOKERS: Did you have a memorable encounter with Helen Thomas? Please send it to [email protected], and we’ll share some of them tomorrow.

BIRTHDAYS: Bob Shrum (hat tip: Jon Haber) … Jahan Wilcox (@JahanWilcox), Ken Cuccinelli for Governor (hat tips: Alex, Stew) … Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy (hat tip: Andrew Doba) … Gary Crider, Jenn’s dad, is 75 … Rep. James Clyburn is 73 ... John Negroponte ... CNN's Mark “Preston!” Preston ... Teddy Davis, Director of Strategic Communications at Office of the Maryland Governor (hat tips: Patrick Gavin) … Jessica Menter, OMB staffer and diehard Redskins fan, celebrating before getting knee surgery like her hero, RG3 (hat tips: Adam Conner, Kevin Walling) ... Phyllis Rubin of North Grafton, Mass. (h/t Dianna Heitz) … Alysha Love ,, former Attorney General Janet Reno is 75 … Garry Trudeau is 65 … Robin Williams is 62 … MLB All-Star pitcher CC Sabathia is 33 (h/ts AP)

BRITISH OPEN SPOILER ALERT – “Lefty wins Open for 1st time with brilliant finish,” by AP’s Paul Newberry in Gullane, Scotland: “Phil Mickelson has won the British Open with a spectacular finish. Mickelson shot a 5-under 66 Sunday to match the best round of the tournament and win his first claret jug. The celebration began while there were still four groups on the course. Lefty birdied four of the last six holes, capped by a 10-footer at the tough 18th to claim his fifth major title. As soon as the ball dropped in the cup, Mickelson pumped his fists in triumph, knowing it would be hard for anyone to chase down his 3-under 281 total. He headed off to hug his wife and kids while his caddie broke down in tears. Lee Westwood started the day with a two-stroke lead but his chances ended when he failed to make eagle at the 17th. Adam Scott briefly held the outright lead on the back side, but four straight bogeys ended his hopes of a second major title.”

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Jake Sherman @JakeSherman