Last month, a comprehensive report, “Potential Nuclear Power Plant Closings in Illinois,” was released. It was authored by the Illinois Commerce Commission, Illinois Power Agency, Illinois Environmental Protection Agency and Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity. The report deals with the effects that the potential closing of three nuclear plants would have on employment in the state, state income, electricity prices, reliability of power electricity supply and air pollution emissions.

In the media relatively little attention has been given to these long-term effects. Dishearteningly, prominence seems to have been given to the view that the report is merely a ploy for a bail-out for Exelon. The simple fact is, this is not a utility issue, this is a state issue.

A bottom line from the state report is that the reduction in power production from closing the plants would be met only partially by greater wind and solar production or increased energy efficiency. It is estimated that the plant closings would lead to significant losses in economic activity and jobs. Because nuclear plants do not emit carbon and cannot be solely replaced by renewable energy sources, there could be a significant increase in carbon emissions to replace these plants, plus additional costs due to dirtier air for Illinoisans. This would come in the face of increased policy demands to reduce carbon emissions.

AIR—AND ECONOMIC—POLLUTION

The state runs a danger if the potentially significant negative economic and air pollution consequences of allowing these plants to close are ignored. Energy policy has developed into a rather complex mixture of reliance on market forces and government interventions. Changes on both the market and the government fronts are occurring and will continue to occur.

Perhaps residents and businesses would respond with most concern to the finding that the closings could lead to a significant ratcheting up of wholesale electricity costs in northern Illinois, leading to electricity rate increases for utility customers. These impacts in turn would be felt by utility customers, which would affect the viability and attractiveness of the state as a place to live and do business. As is well known, the state is in economic trouble, facing serious revenue shortfalls and a still unresolved pension crisis for which every dollar available is needed. A soundly priced and reliable electric power system is needed to help combat the state's problems.

I have studied the economics of the energy industry and the impacts of potential policy changes for several decades and for many oil, gas and utility companies and associations, including Commonwealth Edison. I also am president of RCF Economic & Financial Consulting, an economic consulting firm.

This a pivotal issue for Illinois, and the way our legislators respond will have long-term ramifications for the future of the state. The impacts of these potential closures will affect our own pocketbooks and health, and our state's economy for many years to come. That makes it too important to ignore. We need to rise above the old threadbare arguments between competing interest groups, and all pitch in to work together on the future of the state as a whole.