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CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 WELLIN 03867 01 OF 02 182125Z 73 ACTION PM-04 INFO OCT-01 EA-07 ISO-00 CIAE-00 H-02 INR-07 L-03 NSAE-00 NSC-05 PA-01 PRS-01 SP-02 SS-15 USIA-06 ERDA-05 ACDA-07 OMB-01 COME-00 EB-07 LAB-04 SIL-01 /079 W --------------------- 114992 R 180320Z OCT 76 FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2146 INFO CINCPAC CNO WASHDC SECDEF WASHDC AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMCONSUL AUCKLAND C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 1 OF 2 WELLINGTON 3867 CINCPAC ALSO FOR POLAD SECDEF FOR ISA E.O. 11652: GDS TAGS: PFOR, MNUC, NZ SUBJECT: IMPACT OF NPW VISITS ON NEW ZEALAND/US RELATIONS: AN ASSESSMENT SUMMARY: OPPOSITION LEADER ROWLING, DURING A RECENT VISIT IN WASHINGTON, IS WIDELY REPORTED BY NEW ZEALAND PRESS TO HAVE TOLD SECRETARY KISSINGER OF A "GRAVE DANGER" OF BACKLASH AGAINST UNITED STATES IN VISITS OF AMERICAN NPWS TO NEW ZEALAND. EMBASSY DOES NOT SEE THAT NPW VISITS HAVE YET OR ARE LIKELY TO BECOME PERSUASIVE POLITICAL ISSUE. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF SPONTANEOUS ANTI-AMERICAN BACKLASH. SHOULD SUCH BACKLASH OCCUR IN THE FUTURE, IT WILL LIKELY BE RESULT OF STIMULATIVE EFFORTS BY LABOUR PARTY ITSELF. EMBASSY IS CONCERNED, HOWEVER, THAT LABOUR PARTY (A) PAINTING ITSELF INTO CORNER RE NPW ISSUE AND (B) CONTINUING A FOREIGN POLICY WHICH TENDS TOWARD PROMINENT "THIRD WORLD" ROLE RATHER THAN THAT OF ACTIVE ALLY. WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED THAT ANY DECIDION TO DISCONTINUE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 WELLIN 03867 01 OF 02 182125Z OR DRASTICALLY CURTAIL PERIODIC NPW VISITS WOULD BE CONTRARY TO THE EXPRESSED WISHES OF PRIME MINISTER MULDOON AND WOULD REPRESENT A CONSIDERABLE VICTORY FOR ROWLING, A MAN WHO HAS CONSISTENTLY VOICED ANTI-U.S. SENTIMENTS SINCE LOSING PRIME MINISTER'S POSITION. END SUMMARY. 2. NEW ZEALAND PRESS HAS GIVEN WIDE AND PROMINENT PLAY TO REPORTS OF NPW-RELATED CONVERSATION WHICH NEW ZEALAND OPPOSITION LEADER BILL ROWLING IS SAID TO HAVE HALD IN WASHINGTON OCTOBER 2 WITH SECRETARY KISSINGER. WHILE WE HAD NOT KNOWN THAT SUCH A CONVERSATION WAS TO TAKE PLACE AND, IN FACT, WE HAVE RECEIVED NO CONFIRMATION THAT A KISSINGER/ROWLING CONVERSATION DID OCCUR, ACCORDING TO LOCAL REPORTS ROWLING ALLEGES THAT SECRETARY HAD NOT BEEF FULLY AWARE OF THE DEGREE OF NEW ZEALAND OPPOSTION TO VISITS OF AMERICAN NPWS. FURTHER THAT "HE (SECRETARY) IS GOING TO SATISFY HIMSELF AS TO THE DEGREE OF SUBSTANCE TO OUR VIEWPOINT". REPORT CONTINUED THAT ROWLING SAID HE TOLD SECRETARY THAT USG WAS "PUSHING IT" BY SENDING SECOND NPW HARD ON HEELS OF FIRST, AND THERE WAS A "GRAVE DANGER OF BACKLASH AGAINST THE UNITED STATES" IF AMERICANS WERE SEEN TO BE VISIBLE EXPRESSION OF NUCLEAR INTRUSION INTO NEW ZEALAND. 2. THIS PAST WEEKEND, MR. ROWLING RETURNED TO NEW ZEALAN AND WAS AGAIN PROMINENTLY BEFORE THE MEDIA WITH FURTHER REPORTS ON HIS NPW CONVERSATION WITH SECRETARY KISSINGER. WHILE ROWLING HAS BEEN CAREFUL TO INDICATE ONLY THAT THE SECRETARY WILL "LOOK AT" THE NPW ISSUE, HE HAS LEFT THE CLEAR IMPRESSION THAT THE RESULT OF THE SECRETARY'S ASSESS- MENT MIGHT BE ALTERATION IN PRESENT U.S. POLICY ON NPW VISITS. TO WIT: QUOTE DR. KISSINGER DID NOT REPEAT NOT GIVE ANY UNDERTAKING TO ME AT ALL ABOUT THEIR (USG'S) PRESSURE, (BUT) HE CERTAINLY DID GIVE ME A VERY CLEAR IMPRESSION THAT HE WOULD WANT TO HAVE A FURTHER LOOK AT THE SITUATION TO SEE WHAT THE IMPLICATIONS WERE FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF THE DEPARTMENT OF STATE, AS OPPOSED TO A MILITARY POINT OF VIEW -- WHICH IS THE ONE THAT I THINK WE'VE LARGELY SEEN UP UNTIL NOW. UNQUOTE. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 WELLIN 03867 01 OF 02 182125Z 3. AS DEPARTMENT KNOWS, THE BAN ON NPW VISITS BEGAN UNDER A NATIONAL GOVERNMENT TWELVE YEARS AGO. BAN WAS BASED, AT LEAST IN PART, ON ABSENCE IN US LAW OF ABSOLUTE NO-FAULT LIABILITY FOR ANY ACCIDENT OR INCIDENT INVOLVING AMERICAN NPWS. THIS BAN CONTINUED UNDER NATIONAL GOVERNMENT THROUGH 1972 AND UNDER THE LABOUR GOVERNMENT FROM 1972 TO 1975. IN ADDITION, HOWEVER, LABOUR GOVERNMENT ADOPTED AS CENTRAL ELEMENT OF ITS FOREIGN POLICY THE SOUTH PACIFIC NUCLEAR WEAPONS FREE ZONE (SPNWFZ) AND SUCCESSFULLY CO- SPONSORED A 1975 UNGA RESOLUTION TO THAT EFFECT. THE SPNWFZ REMAINS A KEY PROVISION OF THE LABOUR PARTY MANIFESTO TODAY. FURTHERMORE, THE LABOUR PARTY'S MOST IMPORTANT SUPPORTER, THE NEW ZEALAND FEDERATION OF LABOUR (400,000 MEMBERS) VOTED IN ITS 1976 ANNUAL CONFERENCE TO SUPPORT ANY UNION "THAT CHOOSES TO RESORT TO DIRECT ACTION OPPOSING NUCLEAR- POWERED OR ARMED VESSELS" IN NEW ZEALAND WATERS. 4. THE DECISION OF PRIME MINISTER MULDOON AND HIS NATIONAL GOVERNMENT TO ABANDON THE SPNWFZ AS UNWORKABLE AND TO WELCOME AMERICAN NPWS TO NEW ZEALAND PORTS WAS NOT REPEAT NOT A PLANK IN NATIONAL'S 1975 ELECTION PLATFORM. ALTHOUGH MULDOON DID MAKE HIS POSITION ON NPWS KNOWN DURING THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN, NATIONAL CANNOT CLAIM AN ELECTORATE MANDATE ON THIS ISSUE BECAUSE THE POOR STATE OF NEW ZEALAND'S ECONOMY OVER- SHADOWED OTHER ISSUES. THERE IS NO REPEAT NO REASON TO BELIEVE, HOWEVER, THAT MULDOON'S DECISION WELCOMING NPWS IS UNPOPULAR WITH MAJORITY OF NEW ZEALANDERS. AS A MATTER OF FACT, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE EVIDENCE TO THE CONTRARY. CONFIDENTIAL NNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 WELLIN 03867 02 OF 02 182139Z 73 ACTION PM-04 INFO OCT-01 EA-07 ISO-00 CIAE-00 H-02 INR-07 L-03 NSAE-00 NSC-05 PA-01 PRS-01 SP-02 SS-15 USIA-06 ERDA-05 ACDA-07 OMB-01 COME-00 EB-07 LAB-04 SIL-01 /079 W --------------------- 115230 R 180320Z OCT 76 FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2147 INFO CINCPAC CNO WASHDC SECDEF WASHDC AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMCONSUL AUCKLAND C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 2 OF 2 WELLINGTON 3867 CINCPAC ALSO FOR POLAD SECDEF FOR ISA 5. LABOUR HAS ENDEAVORED TO MAKE NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND NUCLEAR PROPULSION THE MAJOR FOREIGN POLICY ISSUE. THEY HAVE ADDITIONALLY TRIED TO BRIDGE THE GAP BETWEEN FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC INTEREST IN THE ISSUES BY ANNOUNCING OPPOSITION TO NUCLEAR-POWERED ELECTRICAL GENERATION AND THEN LUMPING ALL ASPECTS (NUCLEAR WARHEADS, NPWS AND NUCLEAR ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION) UNDER ONE LARGE "ANTI- NUCLEAR" HEADING. LABOUR GIVES EVERY EVIDENCE OF BELIEVING THAT BY ELECTION TIME IN 1978, THE NUCLEAR ISSUE AND ALL ITS RAMIFICATIONS CAN BE AN IMPORTANT MATTER IN LABOUR'S FAVOR. 6. EMBASSY QUESTIONS THE VALIDITY OF LABOUR'S BELIEF. THERE HAS CERTAINLY BEEN NO REPEAT NO SPONTANEOUS PUBLIC REACTION OPPOSING NPW VISITS. WHILE THE WATERSIDE UNIONS HAVE REFUSED TOWORK THE PORTS DURING NPW VISITS, THEIR ACTIONS REFLECT, IN THE MAIN, THE RESENTMENT OF THE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 WELLIN 03867 02 OF 02 182139Z UNIONS AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT OVER THE GOVERNMENT-IMPOEED WAGE FREEZE. WE DOUBT THAT MORE THAN A HANDFUL OF UNIONISTS REALLY BELIEVE THAT NPWS ARE A THREAT TO THEIR HEALTH AND SAFETY. NPWS ARE, HOWEVER, A CONVENIENT PRETEXT FOR DISRUPTIVE AND EXPENSIVE STOPPAGES. IN SHORT, IF THE NEW ZEALAND ECONOMY WERE STRONG, WAGES HIGH AND UNEMPLOYMENT DOWN, WE BELIEVE OPPOSITION TO NPW VISITS WOULD BE MUCH LESS EVIDENT. 7. IN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, MR. ROWLING HAS BEEN TALKING TO THE SECRETARY ABOUT A SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY. SUCH ANTI-AMERICAN BACKLASH AS MAY OCCUR FROM US NPW VISITS WILL BE LARGELY THAT GENERATED BY THE LABOUR PARTY ITSELF AND THE FEDERATION OF LABOUR. WE HAVE SEEN A BIT OF THAT ALREADY IN THE LABOUR PARTY MEMBERSHIP TRACT CIRCULATED BEFORE THE TRUXTON VISIT (SEE WELLINGTON 3225 NOTAL) WHEN LABOUR MADE BUT VEILED REFERENCE TO THE UNITED STATES: QUOTE: LABOUR WANTS TO MAKE NEW ZEALAND INDEPENDENT -- LABOJUR WILL NOT KOW-TOW TO ANY COUNTRY'S NUCLEAR BULLYING, OR GIVE UP OUR INDEPENDENCE TO SHELTER UNDER ANOTHER COUNTRY'S "NUCLEAR UMBRELLA". UNQUOTE. 8. INTERESTINGLY, A PUBLIC OPINION POLL COVERING THE PERFORMANCE OF GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION DURING THE JULY- AUGUST PERIOD HAS RECENTLY BEEN RELEASED. JULY-AUGUST WAS A PERIOD WHEN INDUSTRIAL PROBLEMS, THE ALL-BLACK RUGBY TOUR OF SOUTH AFRICA AND NPW VISITS WERE THE EXCLUSIVE HEADLINE FARE OF NEW ZEALAND MEDIA. POL INDICATES THAT LABOUR FAILED TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH VOTERS TO THESE ISSUES. 31 PERCENT APPROVED OPPOSITION'S PERFORMANCE IN AUGUST COMPARED WITH 35 PERCENT LAST APRIL. 45 PERCENT APPROVED GOVERNMENT'S PERFORMANCE IN AUGUST COMPARED WITH 47 PERCENT IN APRIL. 9. OVER THE PAST TEN MONTHS SINCE NATIONAL WAS RETURNED TO POWER, PRIME MINISTER MULDOON HAS BEEN STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF USG FOREIGN AND DEFENSE POLICY AND OF NEW ZEALAND'S ACTIVE PARTNERSHIP IN ANZUS. ROWLING, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS HARDLY BEEN EVEN TEPIDLY CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 WELLIN 03867 02 OF 02 182139Z INTERESTED IN NEW ZEALAND'S CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANZUS AND HAS SELDOM PASSED UP AN OPPORTUNITY TO "GUT" THE USG AS FAR AS AN EFFECTIVE NAVAL DEFENSE PRESENCE IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC IS CONCERNED. WE CAN SEE WITH CLARITY JUST WHO OUR FRIENDS ARE ON THE NPW ISSUE. WHILE WE WILL WANT TO AVOID, AT ALL COSTS, ANY APPEARANCE OF RAMMING NPWS DOWN NEW ZEALAND'S THROUT, TO DISCOUNTINUE OR INDEED TO DRASTICALLY CURTAIL PERIODIC NPW VISITS WOULD BE CONTRARY TO THE EXPLICIT WISHES OF THE PRIME MINISTER. IT WOULD MARK, MOREOVER, A CONSIDERABLE VICTORY FOR ROWLING, A MAN WHO HAS TAKEN SOME VERY ANTI-AMERICAN POSITIONS A LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION. 10. RATHER THAN FEARING AN ANTI-AMERICAN BACKLASH, EMBASSY IS CONCERNED THAT LABOUR IS PAINTING ITSELF INTO CORNER ON NPW ISSUE FROM WHICH IT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY EXTRACTING ITSELF, IF AND WHEN IT AGAIN BECOMES GOVERNMENT. THE CLEAR AND LOGICAL CONCLUSION OF ITS CONTINUED ADHERENCE TO THE SPNWFZ IS FUTURE REJECTION OF NPW VISITS. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT THE TREND WHICH LABOUR SET DURING ITS LAST TERM IN GOVERNMENT AND WHICH IT HAS CONTINUED TO FOLLOW AS THE OPPOSITION PARTY LOOKS MORE TOWARDS A "THIRD WORLD" ROLE THAN TOWARDS THAT OF AN ACTIVE AMERICAN ALLY. WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED THAT LABOUR, UNDER ROWLING, WILL BE PERCEIVED BOTH DOMESTICALLY AND ABROAD AS ANTI-AMERICAN. THE OBVERSE OF THIS, OF COURSE, IS THAT THE STRONG AND WARM WORKING RELATIONSHIPS WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN NATIONAL GOVERNMENT AND USG OVER THE NPW ISSUE MIGHT LEAD TO THE PERCEPTION THAT NATIONAL IS THE PRO-U.S. PARTY -- AND VICE VERSA. (FOR INSTANCE, ROWLING HAS ALREADY INTIMATED TO THE AMBASSADOR SOME SENSITIVITY TO THE LARGE NUMBER OF VIP USG VISITORS TO NEW ZEALAND IN THE LAST TEN MONTHS AS COMPARED WITH THE THREE YEARS OF LABOUR'S RULE). AT THE SAME TIME, THE EMBASSY KNOWS THAT THERE ARE ELEMENTS OF THE LABOUR PARTY WHO ARE NOT REPEAT NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH ROWLING ON THE NPW ISSUE. THROUGH STUDIED EFFORTS BY AMBASSADOR AND ENTIRE MISSION TEAM, WE HAVE ENDEAVORED TO TREAT LABOUR OPPOSITION WITH EVEN HAND AND PREVENT ITS LEADER'S ATTITUDE ON NPWS FROM SOURING OUR RELATIONSHIPS. THIS EFFORT WILL CONTINUE, BUT SOME OF THE PUBLIC POSITIONS ADOPTED BY THE LABOUR LEADERSHIP CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 WELLIN 03867 02 OF 02 182139Z WILL NOT MAKE THE TASK AN EASY ONE. 11. THESE ARE SOME OF THE REALITIES, VIEWED FROM WELLINGTON, WHICH WE ARE CONFIDENT THE DEPARTMENT WILL WANT TO CONSIDER IF, AS FORMER PRIME MINISTER ROWLING SUGGESTS IN HIS PRESS INTERVIEWS, THE DEPARTMENT CONTEMPLATES A RE-EXAMINATION OF THE NPW VISITS ISSUE. SELDEN CONFIDENTIAL NNN