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Re: Data update

in the meantime, one correction to the email I sent. MI is 48-43 (+5) On Mon, Mar 7, 2016 at 11:57 PM, Elan Kriegel <ekriegel@hillaryclinton.com> wrote: > Ah -- sorry. Will have someone from team pull > > On Mon, Mar 7, 2016 at 11:49 PM, Joel Benenson <jbenenson@bsgco.com> > wrote: > >> I think Mandy’s Q was what is the horserace in MI among AA voters? >> >> >> >> *From:* Elan Kriegel [mailto:ekriegel@hillaryclinton.com] >> *Sent:* Monday, March 07, 2016 11:48 PM >> *To:* Mandy Grunwald >> *Cc:* David Binder; Jennifer Palmieri; Jim Margolis; John Anzalone; John >> Podesta; David Dixon; Joel Benenson; rich@dixondavismedia.com; Navin >> Nayak; Oren Shur; Robby Mook; Heather Stone; Marlon Marshall >> *Subject:* Re: Data update >> >> >> >> Sounds like the table with horserace didn't come through on some people's >> emails. Sorry about that. In non-table form: >> >> - MI: 49-43 (+6) >> - MO: 50-44 (+6) >> - OH: 53-37 (+16) >> - IL: 54-39 (+15) >> >> In Michigan: >> >> - We are actually assuming Af-Ams will be closer to 20% >> - We are leading white women, 52-42 and trailing white men 36-56 >> - There was not any significant movement in the last few days of our >> calls (though we didn't do any calls post-debate) >> >> >> >> On Mon, Mar 7, 2016 at 11:10 PM, Mandy Grunwald <gruncom@aol.com> wrote: >> >> Thanks Elan. >> >> >> >> Can you please let us know the horse race by race? >> >> Are you still assuming 23% of vote is AA ? >> >> >> >> And could we please know the horserace for white men/white women? >> >> >> >> Finally, has there been any movement in the last few days? >> >> >> >> Many thanks >> >> >> >> Mandy >> >> Mandy Grunwald >> >> Grunwald Communications >> >> 202 973-9400 >> >> >> >> >> On Mar 7, 2016, at 10:10 PM, Elan Kriegel <ekriegel@hillaryclinton.com> >> wrote: >> >> Hey everyone, >> >> >> >> The table below includes the most recent results from our analytics field >> surveys. >> >> >> >> <image.png> >> >> >> >> We will discuss the rest of the states on tomorrow's call, but below are >> some notes on Michigan: >> >> - *Timing: *All of the calls were conducted before yesterday's debate >> (many were conducted before the weekend). >> - *Gender gap: *We are losing men 39-53 and leading women 54-37. >> - *Election Awareness deficit did not close: *Our voters >> (particularly people of color) are still much less likely to know when the >> debate is than Sanders' supporters. This is my biggest fear for tomorrow. >> - *Public Polls: *Many people have asked about the recent public >> polls. The biggest difference between our surveys and the public polls is >> composition of the universe. Generally, the public polls assume more people >> of color and fewer young people will vote than we do. If this is the case, >> we will obviously do better, but given the recent polling we are not as >> confident. I have attached a memo that gets into that in more detail >> >> Please let me know if you have any questions. >> >> >> >> Thanks, >> >> >> >> --elan >> >> <20150306MichiganPolling.pdf> >> >> >> > >