Ohio is Governor John Kasich’s home state, and he should do very well there while he controls the Republican apparatus. (full pdf below)

OHIO – […] The bottom has really fallen out on Marco Rubio’s image. For much of the year he’s been among the best liked of the Republican candidates, even if he wasn’t voters’ first choice. Now he’s the least popular candidate, with only 33% of voters seeing him favorable to 51% who have an unfavorable opinion. Even when you combine first and second choices Rubio’s still in a distant last place with 22% to 55% for Kasich, 46% for Trump, and 28% for Cruz.

One of the biggest stories in the GOP Presidential race last week was Mitt Romney’s big anti-Trump speech but we find Romney is very unpopular with the Republican base and that the speech thus likely didn’t do much to hurt Trump. In Ohio just 33% of GOP voters see Romney favorably, to 50% with a negative opinion. In fact if voters had to pick just between Romney and Trump to be their candidate this fall, Trump wins out 52/36. That’s a wider margin than Trump gets head to head against either Cruz (47/41) or Rubio (51/41).

A piece of particularly good news for Trump in this poll is that he does have the most committed supporters. 80% of his voters say that they’ll ‘definitely’ vote for him compared to 71% for Cruz, 58% for Kasich, and 52% for Rubio. Trump has always done well among voters who make up their minds earlier, and that’s reflected in this finding. It might also mean he doesn’t have much room to grow though, raising the possibility of Kasich overtaking him. (read more)