The police force, with a head count already down by thousands, is not likely to receive a huge influx of cash for hiring or overtime costs if times are rough. On Aug. 31, the count was 36,265 police officers, down by about 4,000 from the peak strength in 2000, a result of tight budgets and recruiting difficulties that stemmed in part from a low starting salary. Recently, City Hall has asked the department for $94 million worth of suggested cuts to its budget — or 2.5 percent of its budget — for the fiscal year ending next June, Mr. Kelly said. The administration sought $192 million more in cuts for the following fiscal year, though it is unclear if those cuts will be carried out.

Still, officials here have enjoyed more than a decade of impressive crime reduction — in good and bad fiscal times — and say that even if sharp increases in crime are tied to bad economic conditions, the police are better outfitted than in years past for addressing them.

Image Lisa Walters, at a florists shop on Staten Island, said of crime and the economy: I really havent noticed. I can understand that there could be a relationship. Credit... Ruby Washington/The New York Times

Commissioner Kelly says he always analyzes crime data in a way that allows the department to alter its strategies once trends emerge. At a minimum, he makes decisions about how manpower and resources are allocated every six months, when each new class of rookie officers hits the streets.

Mr. Kelly used a program that assigns the newly minted officers to places that were trouble spots around the city during the last downturn, after the Sept. 11 attacks and the resulting municipal belt-tightening the city faced in 2002 and 2003. By pinpointing neighborhoods — even stretches of blocks within police precincts — and positioning extra officers there, the department drove crime down 30 percent in some places, anchoring overall annual reductions.

Crime in the city is down so far this year, too. As of Oct. 5, the most recent date for which data is available, overall reported crime was down 3.2 percent compared with the same period last year, police statistics show. The number of murders rose — to 400 this year from 359 by Oct. 5, 2007, an 11.4 percent increase — though even the new figure is nearly 9 percent lower than in 2006.

Mr. Bratton, who in the 1990s was the New York City police commissioner, said that poor economic conditions “can be an influence on crime rates,” but not a central cause.