Craig Gilbert

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Donald Trump’s refusal to endorse House Speaker Paul Ryan is a head-turning election story, a new milestone in a bad political marriage and a sign of extreme, ongoing Republican turmoil.

But there’s little evidence in the polling so far that it will seriously hurt Ryan back home in Wisconsin, where the Janesville congressman faces a GOP primary next week against first-time candidate and Trump supporter Paul Nehlen.

Graphic: Ryan's favorability vs. Trump

Surveys this summer show Ryan is much more popular than Trump in Wisconsin. That is true in Ryan’s congressional district and statewide. And it is true for voters both inside and outside the Republican Party.

The polls show no sign of a pro-Trump backlash against Ryan, who endorsed Trump but has repeatedly distanced himself from Trump’s rhetoric and ideas. In an early July survey, Ryan was just as popular in Wisconsin among Republicans who support Trump as he was among those who don’t.

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The polling also suggests Ryan is well positioned in his primary next Tuesday. He has low negatives and lopsided support in his own party. Back home, more than 8 in 10 GOP voters view him favorably.

There is no question Trump has made life very uncomfortable this year for the first-year speaker. Ryan has drawn fire from Trump critics who want him to repudiate his party’s nominee. And he has drawn fire from Trump supporters who want him to stop criticizing his party’s nominee.

Trump’s declaration to the Washington Post Tuesday that he is “not quite there yet” when it comes to supporting Ryan sounded like payback for Ryan’s hesitation to endorse Trump in May, when the speaker said, “I’m just not there right now.”

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It follows Ryan’s defense of the parents of a fallen Muslim American soldier in the midst of their running feud with Trump.

Adding to the political theater, Trump's running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, endorsed Ryan on Wednesday.

Trump’s intervention in the Ryan primary is a wild card. It has abruptly raised its national profile and turned the contest into what some are calling a “proxy war” between Trump and Ryan.

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But given Ryan’s longstanding popularity among home-state Republicans — and the turbulence and discord surrounding Trump’s candidacy right now — the results could be more harmful to Trump in Wisconsin than to Ryan.

Here is a closer look at the numbers:

Ryan’s popularity in his party.

In June and July surveys by the Marquette University Law School, 84% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in the 1st Congressional District had a favorable view of Ryan; only 9% had an unfavorable view.

Among all registered voters in his district — not just Republicans — 53% viewed Ryan favorably and 34% viewed him unfavorably.

These ratings are not just the product of small polling samples and are not just a fleeting snapshot of public opinion. Ryan’s standing in his district is similar to his standing statewide, for which we have much larger polling samples. And Ryan’s ratings today are similar to his ratings in more than a dozen previous polls conducted by Marquette in recent years.

Ryan popularity compared to Trump.

Ryan has a much more positive image than Trump does among Wisconsin Republicans, the polls show. Trump’s standing among GOP voters in the state has improved since the spring. But there’s still a sizable popularity gap between Ryan and Trump.

In Marquette’s June and July surveys, Trump was viewed favorably by 49% of GOP voters in Ryan’s district, compared to the 84% who viewed Ryan favorably.

Among all registered voters in Ryan’s district, Trump was viewed favorably by 25%, compared to the 53% who viewed Ryan favorably.

Ryan’s standing with Trump supporters.

Might Trump’s brush-off of Ryan and praise for Nehlen hurt Ryan with GOP voters who like and support Trump?

It’s possible. But up until now, Ryan’s criticisms of Trump don’t appear to have damaged his standing with pro-Trump Republicans in Wisconsin.

In Marquette’s last survey (taken July 7-10), GOP voters were asked if they thought Trump or someone other than Trump should be the party’s nominee. Among Republicans who backed Trump, Ryan’s favorability rating statewide was 80%. Among “anti-Trump” Republicans — those who wanted someone else as their nominee — Ryan’s favorability rating was 74%.

That is not what you’d expect to see if Ryan’s disagreements with Trump were turning off Trump supporters in the party.

“There is no evidence that the pro-Trump people are less favorable to Ryan. Indeed, if anything they are slightly more favorable” than other Republicans in Wisconsin, said Marquette pollster Charles Franklin, who provided the data for this story.

It is hard to poll accurately in a low-turnout August primary. It’s always possible the people who turn out to vote differ from the broader slice of the electorate captured in most surveys.

But for Ryan to be truly damaged next Tuesday by his conflicts with Trump, at least three things would probably have to be true: that Republican primary voters next Tuesday are a lot more pro-Trump than they were in the April presidential primary, when Trump lost Ryan’s district to Ted Cruz by 19 points; that those primary voters are dramatically more anti-Ryan than most Republicans in Ryan’s district; and that after being very pro-Ryan for years, GOP voters have shifted sharply against the speaker since Marquette’s last poll in early July.

All of that seems unlikely when you consider a few other factors: Trump’s support among Republicans has been weaker in Wisconsin than nationally; it has been weaker in southern Wisconsin (where Ryan’s district is) than in northern Wisconsin; Ryan has heavily outspent Nehlen; and Ryan has a history of working his district hard.

The new wrinkle is that Trump has now elevated his differences with Ryan and elevated Ryan’s congressional primary.

One result is that more will be read into the outcome.

It will be seen as at least a small victory for one man or the other in their strange contest for the soul of the Republican Party.