Marcio Carvalho (Abzan) vs Grzegorz Kowalski (R/G Eldrazi)

Game 1

Game 2

Game 3

Analysis

R/G Eldrazi

Abzan

Grzegorz Kowalski snuck into the top 8 with an unexpected R/G Eldrazi deck that ended up winning the Grand Prix Lyon 2018 in an epic upset over Marcio Carvalho's Abzan deck. Both players were exceptional, making few if any mistakes or bad calls, but hindsight being 20/20, we can now dissect their gameplay to find causal factors for each loss.Turn 1: Carvalho plays Nihil SpellbombTurn 1: Kowalski plays Noble HierarchTurn 2: Carvalho plays Fatal Push on Noble HierarchTurn 2: Kowalski plays 2nd land (Forest) passes turn with 2 untapped lands. End of turn, Carvalho sacrifices Nihil Spellbomb and exiles all cards from Kowalski’s graveyard, pays 1 and draws a card.Turn 3: Carvalho plays Marsh Flats and searches up a land. Plays Liliana of the Veil. Plusses up. Kowalski discards.Turn 3: Kowalski plays Eldrazi Obligator and swings at Liliana (reduced to 1 loyalty counter).Turn 4: Carvalho (life-14) plusses Liliana and plays Tarmogoyf (5/6)Turn 4: Kowalski (life-17) plays Eldrazi Obligator and swings in with both at Liliana (dies). Carvalho blocks one with Tarmogoyf (Obligator dies). Kowalski plays Birds of Paradise. At end of turn, Carvalho plays Fatal Push on the remaining Eldrazi Obligator.Turn 5: Carvalho swings in with Tarmogoyf. Kowalski’s life total drops to 12. Carvalho plays Grim Flayer (with delirium it is 4/4).Turn 5: Kowalski plays Reality Smasher and passes the turn.Turn 6: Carvalho (life-14) swings in with Tarmogoyf reducing Kowalski’s life total to 7.Turn 6: Kowalski draws an Eldrazi Obligator. He plays a Noble Hierarch and swings in with Reality Smasher reducing Carvalho’s life to 8.Turn 7: Carvalho swings in with Grim Flayer (4/4) reducing Kowalski’s life total to 3. He looks at the top 3 cards in his library (Grim Flayer trigger) and puts Lingering Souls into the graveyard. He immediately flashes it back putting two 1/1 creatures with flying on the battlefield.Current board state: Carvalho has the following creatures: Tarmogoyf (untapped 6/7), 2 1/1 flyers (untapped), and Grim Flayer (tapped). Carvalho has 3 tapped lands. Kowalski untaps with 1 Birds of Paradise, 1 Noble Hierarch, and 1 Reality Smasher and 4 lands. Carvalho’s life total is 8 and Kowalski’s life total is 3.Turn 7: Kowalski plays Endbringer (5/5). Passes turn.Turn 8: Carvalho untaps and plays Inquisition of Kozilek and forces Kowalski to discard the last card in his hand (Eldrazi Obligator). Carvalho swings in with Tarmogoyf and 2 flyers. Kowalski chump blocks with Endbringer (dies).Kowalski’s life is reduced to 1. At end of turn Carvalho flashes in a second Lingering Souls. Passes turn.Turn 8: Kowalski draws and pays a Noble Hierarch and attacks with Reality Smasher (able to pump up to 9/7 with trample). Carvalho blocks with Grim Flayer. Kowalski scoops.Kowalski mulligans to 6. Keeps, scrys, leaves the card on top of the library.Turn 1: Kowalski plays Noble Hierarch.Turn 1: Carvalho plays land and passes turn.Turn 2: Kowalski plays Matter Reshaper.Turn 2: Carvalho plays Abrupt Decay on the Noble Hierarch.Turn 3: Kowalski swings in with Matter Reshaper reducing Carvalho's life to 16. He plays a second Matter Reshaper.Turn 3: Carvalho's fetch lands brings him down to 15 life and he casts Liliana of the Veil. He uses her -2 ability to have Kowalski sacrifice a Matter Reshaper.Turn 4: Kowalski plays Thought-Knot Seer and exiles Damnation from his opponent's hand. He swings at Liliana and kills her with Matter Reshaper.Turn 4: Carvalho plays Dark Confidant. Passes turn.Turn 5: Kowalski plays Dismember and kills Dark Confidant. He swings in with two creatures and takes Carvalho's life down to 8. He plays Scavenging Ooze.Turn 5: Carvalho scoops.Carvalho mulligans to 6. Kowalski keeps.Turn 1: Carvalho plays Overgrown Tomb tapped and passes.Turn 1: Kowalski plays Ancient Stirrings and finds an Eldrazi Temple.Turn 2: Carvalho plays Dark Confidant.Turn 2: Kowalski plays Matter Reshaper.Turn 3: Carvalho plays Thoughtsieze. Kowalski discards Scavenging Ooze. Carvalho plays Tarmogoyf (3/4).Turn 3: Kowalski plays Relic of Progenitus and swings with Matter Reshaper taking Carvalho down to 14 life.Turn 4: Carvalho draws another Tarmogoyf and loses 2 life (Dark Confidant). Carvalho swings in with Tarmogoyf and Dark Confidant. Kowalski targets himself with Relic of Progenitus shrinking Tarmogoyf down to a 2/3. Kowalski drops to 15life. Carvalho plays Liliana of the Veil and kills Matter Reshaper.Turn 4: Kowalski plays Reality Smasher and swings in for 5 taking Carvalho's life down to 7.Turn 5: Carvalho takes 2 damage from Dark Confident (life 5). Carvalho discards Lingering Souls to Liliana's +1 and plays Maelstrom Pulse on Reality Smasher.Turn 5: Kowalski plays Reality Smasher and attacks Liliana (dies) and plays Scavenging Ooze.Turn 6: Carvalho draws a Temple Garden with Dark Confidant and plays it bringing his life down to 3. He plays Abrupt Decay targeting Scavenging Ooze then plays another Tarmogoyf.Turn 6: Kowalski plays another Reality Smasher and swings with both.Current board state: Carvalho has 2 Tarmogoyf (untapped) and 1 Dark Confidant (untapped) and 4 tapped lands. Kowalski has 2 untapped lands and 2 tapped and attacking Reality Smashers. Carvalho's life is 3. Kowalski's life is 15.Carvalho double blocks 1 Reality Smasher with a Dark Confidant and a Tarmogoyf and blocks the other Reality Smasher with the other Tarmogoyf.Kowalski plays dismember on one of the Tarmogoyfs.Kowalski wins.You can see from the game play that both of these decks are well matched. Why did R/G Eldrazi win?Game 1, Carvalho fills the graveyards quickly and gets his Tarmogoyf up by turn 4. When his Grim Flayer comes out on turn 5, the tide has turned and Kowalski is on the defensive. Remember the marker....turn 5.Game 2, Carvalho only manages to get some removal out and Liliana before he is pulled apart by Thought-Knot Seer and removal. When Scavenging Ooze is played, Carvalho scoops realizing that his biggest win condition (Tarmogoyf) is now useless.Game 3, Kowalski shows that he sideboarded in Relic of Progenitus, which takes the place of the Scavenging Ooze that gets discarded by Carvalho's Thoughtsieze in turn 3. From that point on, Kowalski controls the size of Carvalho's Tarmogoyfs. Now with graveyard control and a series of Reality Smasher attacks, including a wise decision to not attack Liliana when she was vulnerable, Kowalski, from turn 4, controls the game.Without owing most of Kowalski's win to luck (there was some there-you don't draw 3 Reality Smashers without it), his deck was well suited to disable Carvalho's win conditions. Unfortunately, Carvalho's responses to Kowalski's win conditions never saw the light of day.All in all, both players put forth a great effort, but some good decisions from Kowalski and some bad luck for Carvalho led to a great final game and the rise of R/G Eldrazi.The decklists are below. Your comments and opinions are welcomed.1 Birds of Paradise4 Eldrazi Obligator2 Endbringer4 Matter Reshaper4 Noble Hierarch4 Reality Smasher3 Scavenging Ooze4 Thought-Knot Seer4 Lightning Bolt1 Forked Bolt4 Ancient Stirrings2 Dismember1 Mind Stone1 Stomping Ground2 Wooded Foothills4 Eldrazi Temple4 Cavern of Souls1 Forest1 Kessig Wolf Run4 Grove of the Burnwillows4 Karplusan Forest1 Mountain2 Ancient Grudge2 Chalice of the Void2 Crumble to Dust2 Engineered Explosives2 Grafdigger's Cage1 Kozilek's Return2 Natural State2 Relic of Progenitus1 Tireless Tracker4 Dark Confidant2 Scavenging Ooze4 Tarmogoyf2 Grim Flayer4 Inquisition of Kozilek3 Lingering Souls2 Maelstrom Pulse2 Abrupt Decay4 Fatal Push2 ThoughtseizeArtifact (2)2 Nihil Spellbomb4 Liliana of the Veil1 Liliana, the Last Hope2 Overgrown Tomb2 Treetop Village1 Twilight Mire4 Verdant Catacombs1 Windswept Heath2 Blooming Marsh2 Forest1 Godless Shrine4 Marsh Flats1 Shambling Vent2 Swamp1 Temple Garden2 Damnation1 Duress1 Engineered Explosives3 Fulminator Mage1 Grafdigger's Cage3 Stony Silence1 Tireless Tracker3 Collective Brutality