A woman walks past a PDI-P mural. Major political parties' endorsements may decide the outcome of the Jakarta governor race next year, experts believe. (Antara Photo/Rudi Mulya)

Jakarta. Political parties’ endorsement for Jakarta gubernatorial candidates could prove to be the surprise package in next year’s election, experts said on Wednesday (30/03). This is despite a recent survey showing incumbent governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, or Ahok, who wants to run as an independent in the election, as the top contender for the job.

The Charta Politika poll showed 51.8 percent of those questioned support Basuki, leaving former state secretary and justice minister Yusril Ihza Mahendra at a distant second place with only 11 percent support.

However, the governor race next year will still be determined to a large extent by which candidates the main political parties eventually decide to support, said Yunarto Wijaya, the executive director of Charta Politika.

He identified three big powers in the Jakarta election: Ahok, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and Yusril, the strongest contender for the incumbent so far.

“I can't see Yusril in a head-to-head competition against Ahok though, as he needs to convince the bigger political parties to give their endorsements to him,” Yunarto said, noting that Yusril’s Crescent Star Party [PBB] is a minor party that couldn't even meet the electoral threshold to gain seats at the House of Representatives.

“I don’t think thePDI-P would be willing to give up their seats [at the Jakarta City Council] to support Yusril. They’d rather have their own candidates run in the election,” Yunarto said. The same argument applies for other major parties like the Golkar Party, the Great Indonesian Movement Party (Gerindra) and the National Mandate Party (PAN).

Yunarto said the current political constellation could still change drastically if the seemingly popular "Teman Ahok" (Friends of Ahok) campaign failed to collect the required number of support to kickstart the incumbent’s independent run. He also pointed out the People’s Conscience Party (Hanura) and National Democratic Party (NasDem) still don't have enough support to field their own candidates in the governor race.

“The real surprise could be which candidate the political parties eventually put their weight behind in next year's election," Yunarto said.

A political expert from Indo Strategi research and consulting, Pangi Syarwi Chaniago, said it is still possible that PDI-P will field Surabaya Mayor Tri Rismaharini, or Risma, in the Jakarta governor race.

According to the latest poll, the PDI-P politician would have the support of 7.3 percent of the electorate if she were to run.

“If Megawati [Soekarnoputri, chairwoman of PDI-P] gave her blessings, then Risma would run. It will be like Jokowi all over again – from Solo mayor to Jakarta governor then to the presidency,” Pangi said.

He added that the Jakarta governor race carries a lot of prestige, and political parties will fight tooth and nail to win it.

Jakarta is among 101 regions in Indonesia slated to stage local elections on Feb. 15, 2017.

Other prominent names set to join next year's race include businessman Sandiaga Uno, former minister Adhyaksa Dault and rock star Ahmad Dhani.