POLITICO Playbook: Impeachment Day. Here’s how it will go down. Presented by Amazon

President Donald Trump is set to attend a rally in Michigan as the House votes on his impeachment Wednesday night. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo

DRIVING THE DAY

TWENTY YEARS, 11 MONTHS and 29 DAYS after NEWT GINGRICH’S House impeached BILL CLINTON, NANCY PELOSI’S House will vote to impeach DONALD TRUMP, tattooing an asterisk on the 45th president’s legacy and giving new definition to Republicans and Democrats alike.

FOR HOUSE REPUBLICANS, it’s the coda on three years of unshakable and at times irrational support for TRUMP. For the first time in history, the impeachment of a president will feature no votes from the minority party. That’s a fact Republicans boast about, and Democrats scowl at, but it’s significant no matter which way you read it. An era of bitter partisanship that began in the Clinton years is reaching its pinnacle today.

HOUSE DEMOCRATS have, quite shockingly, fallen almost uniformly behind the impeachment, defying conventional wisdom and political gravity. From Oklahoma City to rural upstate New York, Orange County to exurban Chicago, PELOSI’S Democratic Party has locked arms on this vote to close out 2019. We enter this historic day knowing with certainty how practically every lawmaker will vote, save Wisconsin Rep. RON KIND, who has kept his intentions characteristically close to the vest. (Minnesota Rep. COLLIN PETERSON has signaled he’ll vote no, and New Jersey Rep. JEFF VAN DREW, who is expected to become a Republican, says he will vote no.)

BOTH REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS agree on this much: The other side is making a monumental and defining mistake. TRUMP summed up both parties’ view of their opposition in his rambling letter Tuesday: “history will judge you harshly.” The president was referring to Democrats, who he says are conducting an “impeachment charade.” DEMOCRATS say Republicans have turned into charlatans who are unable to criticize their own.

LIKE SO MUCH IN THE TRUMP ERA, it’s truly difficult to judge the long-term impact of the House’s behavior and tenor over the last year. The Intelligence Committee -- once a bipartisan beacon in the House -- is irreparably split, unable to conduct two-party oversight because of deep disdain between its two leaders. The Judiciary Committee has become a fiery cauldron of venom. The two parties’ leaderships don’t like each other and don’t believe the other side is on the level.

ON WEDNESDAY’S HISTORIC PROCEEDINGS: TRUMP’S schedule is practically clear until around 4 p.m., when he will fly to Michigan for a political rally, so we must assume that he will be watching the House floor carefully. We will be there, so stay tuned.

WHAT THE DAY WILL LOOK LIKE … AT 9 A.M., THE HOUSE will gavel in, and soon thereafter, it will proceed to impeachment. The House first has to debate the “rule,” which sets the guidelines for debate -- we expect that procedural vote at some time in the 10 a.m. hour. The House will then move to six hours of debate on impeachment -- a very long time compared with other legislative matters. That time is equally divided between the minority and majority. Watch out for Republicans to pull some procedural maneuvers, and ask for unrelated votes, which would elongate the process.

IMPEACHMENT needs a simple majority of those present and voting to pass. The House has four vacancies, so if everyone is present and voting, 216 is the magic number, not 218.

THIS IS JUST A GUESS, but it’s looking like it will be a late night. Votes could be in the 7-8 p.m. neighborhood -- if not later. We can’t imagine they’ll allow themselves to vote too late, but there is the potential for a bizarre split-screen effect, with Democrats (and Justin Amash) voting to impeach the president while he whips up the crowd in Battle Creek, Mich.

FOR THE HISTORY BOOKS … TODAY’S DEAD-TREE FRONT PAGES ON THE MORNING OF IMPEACHMENT … NYT: “Trump’s 6-Page Diatribe Belittles Impeachment as an ‘Attempted Coup” … WaPo: “Before a day of reckoning, a fiery last stand” … WSJ, bottom right, small tease: “Trump Lashes Out at Pelosi”

-- WHAT IT MEANS FOR TRUMP’S LEGACY: “‘Tainted’: Impeachment will trail Trump forever,” by Meridith McGraw and Daniel Lippman

ON PELOSI -- HEATHER CAYGLE, JOHN BRESNAHAN and SARAH FERRIS: “Trump impeachment clouds Pelosi's second act”: “Speaker Nancy Pelosi stood in front of her members on Tuesday morning and gestured to a bright red poppy pinned to her coat.

“Pelosi received the memorial pin while attending the 75th anniversary of the Battle of the Bulge in Belgium over the weekend. Some of the few-surviving veterans of that epic fight — the bloodiest for Americans during World War II — had pulled her aside to say Democrats were doing the right thing by impeaching President Donald Trump. ‘As so many of those veterans just kept saying, “Keep on going,”’ Pelosi recounted in the closed-door meeting. ‘“Get this done.”’ …

“[A]t age 79 and in her 17th term in the House, Pelosi has never been better, according to interviews with nearly two dozen Democrats. Her command of legislation, her control over her caucus, her ability to confront a historically hostile president and GOP-run Senate on equal terms is unparalleled. She’s the one person in Washington who can beat Trump at his own game, though she never wanted to play it. …

“Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), who challenged Pelosi for party leader after Democrats failed to win back the House in 2016, now sings her praises. ‘Nancy Pelosi is the absolute best politician that the Democratic Party has seen since Lyndon Johnson, in my opinion,’ Ryan said. When asked if he could have done what Pelosi did if he were Democratic leader, Ryan added: ‘Probably not. … She’s literally in a class by herself.’” POLITICO

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… FOR THE NEXT EPISODE … BURGESS EVERETT and MARIANNE LEVINE: “Schumer weaponizes impeachment trial debate”: “Chuck Schumer is working carefully to get buy-in from the entire Senate Democratic Caucus for his gambit to line up Trump administration officials for the president’s impeachment trial, hoping party unity among Democrats could lead to surprising results on the Senate floor.

“Schumer said in an interview Tuesday there has been ‘no dissension’ among his 47-member caucus, giving him an outside shot at getting vulnerable and independent-minded Republicans to back his plan to bring the acting White House chief of staff to testify.

“Schumer’s calling card during his three years as minority leader has been unity: No defections on Obamacare repeal or tax cuts, just a handful on Supreme Court nominees and little party infighting compared to the Republicans and President Donald Trump. He emphasized that he discussed his plan during party meetings to drive a hard bargain with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell over the parameters of an impeachment trial.

“But when the going gets tough and vulnerable senator Doug Jones and moderates Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are forced to choose whether they acquit the president or remove him from office, Schumer’s ready to back off. ‘I always talk to my members and give them my logic,’ Schumer said of the upcoming impeachment trial. ‘No one’s going to lose a committee assignment or be drummed out of this or drummed out of that because they do something I don't want. That’s not how I operate.’” POLITICO

TOLD YA THEY’D DO THIS! … MEL ZANONA, ANITA KUMAR and DARREN SAMUELSOHN: “White House working to feature Trump’s House allies in impeachment trial”

WHAT TRUMP IS FEELING … WAPO’S ASHLEY PARKER: “Trump appears resilient as he faces the ‘very ugly word’ of impeachment”: “Poised to become on Wednesday only the third president in U.S. history to be impeached, President Trump remains remarkably resilient, wounded but not fatally so as he turns toward his 2020 reelection campaign.

“Unbowed and unapologetic, Trump is charging through impeachment much as he has wrestled with previous crises in his presidency — attacking his perceived enemies, spinning falsehoods, promising vengeance and firing off tweets, all while cycling between fits of indignation and bouts of confidence and good cheer.”

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WHAT THE DCCC IS READING … IN THE POLL that Brad Parscale released to show the impact of impeachment on House Dems, it showed that lowering prescription drugs is the top priority for voters. HOUSE DEMOCRATS just passed a bill to lower prescription drug prices!

JOHN F. HARRIS COLUMN: “Impeachment and the Crack Up of the Conservative Mind”: “On this day of righteous fury — the nation’s second presidential impeachment in 21 years — I have a special request.

“I want to hear from someone, anyone, who meets two standards. One, this person is a supporter of Donald Trump and his Republican backers in Congress who believes the impeachment proceeding is illegitimate and unfair.

“Two, this person is ready in good faith to convince me that he or she would also oppose impeachment and believe the whole matter to be terribly unfair if the facts in the Ukraine matter were exactly the same in every respect but these: That Hillary Clinton was in the White House and she had asked a foreign leader to investigate her potential GOP opponent in the 2020 reelection.

“Does such a person exist? I have my doubts, but my standards for the search are lenient. … If so, send an email to an account, [email protected], that we have set up in a spirit of curiosity, not judgment, to understand how people take the positions they do on impeachment without cracking up. There may be little suspense in this constitutional drama — a House impeachment Wednesday, a Senate acquittal sometime over the next month or so — but we might as well use the occasion to learn about the workings of the political mind. Not just your mind, but mine, too.”

Good Wednesday morning.

LATEST ON THE DEBATE … PBS NEWSHOUR/POLITICO DEBATE COVERAGE … Our colleagues in LA have another set of strong stories ahead of Thursday’s debate. DEBATE DEETS … The debate hub

-- CAMBRIDGE READ: “How Harvard Made Buttigieg The Moderate That Progressives Love To Hate,” by Michael Kruse in Cambridge, Mass.

-- NEW NERDCAST: ANNA is in LA and spoke to Scott Bland about the Democratic primary. Listen here

2020 WATCH …

-- HMM … “Buttigieg omitted high-powered bundlers from disclosure,” by Maggie Severns: “Pete Buttigieg’s presidential campaign omitted more than 20 high-level fundraisers from a list of top bundlers it disclosed last week.

“The public list of bundlers, featuring more than 100 people who have raised at least $25,000 for Buttigieg, was meant to bring a close to more than a week of feuding between Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren over campaign transparency. But the list left off a number of people the Buttigieg campaign had previously touted as top donors in an internal campaign fundraising report obtained by POLITICO.

“They include uberwealthy supporters such as Boston power broker Jack Connors Jr. — who declared he was ‘all in for Pete Buttigieg’ in a June fundraiser invite — and Hollywood producer Jordan Horowitz, whose films include ‘La La Land.’ Buttigieg also omitted hedge fund investor John Petry; William Rahm, senior managing director at the private equity firm Centerbridge Partners; Nicole Avant, the former U.S. ambassador to the Bahamas; and former U.S. Ambassador to Italy John Phillips.” POLITICO

-- NYT’S REID EPSTEIN: “Pete Buttigieg Quit Playing Nice. And It’s Working”: “[Buttigieg’s] aides say they have been successful in drawing Ms. Warren and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont into advantageous policy fights on free college and eliminating private health insurance, which Mr. Buttigieg opposes. And in Iowa, where Democrats famously say they don’t like negative campaigning, Mr. Buttigieg has not been punished for going on the attack — in fact, he has been rewarded.

“But on Thursday, Mr. Buttigieg may be in for some payback. As the polling leader in Iowa, the first caucus state, he is likely to draw substantial fire from most of the six other Democrats debating onstage at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. If so, it would be Mr. Buttigieg’s first experience as the primary punching bag, an honor that has gone to Mr. Biden and Ms. Warren in previous debates.” NYT

-- “Biden is ‘a healthy, vigorous, 77-year-old,’ according to his doctor,” by Natasha Korecki and Marc Caputo … The letter

-- SCOOP: “RNC fires Trump campaign state director in New Hampshire,” by Gabby Orr and Trent Spiner: “State director Eric Mitchell was cut loose last Friday from the joint operation between the president’s 2020 campaign and Republican officials in the Granite State because of persistent issues with his performance.” POLITICO

TRUMP’S WEDNESDAY -- THE PRESIDENT will leave the White House at 4:25 p.m. for Andrews, where he will fly to Battle Creek, Mich. At 7 p.m., he will speak at a political rally, and at 8:50 p.m., he’ll fly back to D.C. He is slated to land around 10:15 p.m., and he’ll be back at the White House at 10:35 p.m.

PLAYBOOK READS

FEATURED VIDEO -- "These are the mistakes 2020 Dems can't make in the next debate," by Krystal Campos: Our reporters covering the 2020 presidential election dive into the candidates’ past performances and what they need to do to deliver at this week’s debate.

JON FAVREAU took to Twitter to vehemently disagree with our top of Playbook on Tuesday (which you can review, if you’d like, and here is Favreau’s retort). So, he writes in here:

“Want to understand the politics of impeachment? Just look at OK-5, one of the reddest House seats in the country held by a Democrat.

“In 2016, Trump won this R+10 district by 13 points, 53-40%. But polling tweeted out by Trump’s own campaign manager shows that 45% of voters in OK-5 now support his impeachment and removal, with 52% opposed.

“Even more telling: Asked how they’d feel if their congresswoman, Rep. KENDRA HORN, voted to impeach, 60% said it would either make them more likely to re-elect her (28%) or make no difference (32%).

“Horn and other frontline Dems did what they believed was right. But while undoubtedly courageous, Trump’s own polling suggests it wasn’t suicidal. These Dems had a choice: Appease some anti-impeachment Trump voters, or maintain the surge of Democratic enthusiasm that helped elect them in 2018. Almost every single one of them picked the latter.

“Bottom line: It’s foolish to predict what effect impeachment will have on an election that’s 10 months away.”

QUOTE DU JOUR … CNN’S JAKE TAPPER on RUDY’S TRIP TO UKRAINE: “This is like if in the middle of the Clinton impeachment, Bill Clinton was out dating on the town. Just flaunting this.”

COURT WATCH -- “Surveillance court demands answers from FBI for errors, omissions in Trump campaign investigation,” by WaPo’s Devlin Barrett: “The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court on Tuesday ordered the government to explain what the FBI will do to ensure the bureau does not mislead judges again when applying for surveillance orders like those used in the 2016 investigation of the Trump campaign.

“The four-page order from Judge Rosemary M. Collyer, the presiding judge of the secretive court, publicly rebuked the FBI for 17 omissions and errors contained in applications to monitor the electronic communications of Carter Page, a former Trump campaign adviser.” WaPo

BRIEFLY NOTED -- “William Taylor, Top Diplomat in Ukraine and Key Impeachment Witness, Is Stepping Down,” by NYT’s Lara Jakes: “William B. Taylor Jr., the top American diplomat in Ukraine who described for Congress and the public what he saw as President Trump’s efforts to pressure Kyiv to go after political rivals, said on Tuesday that he was stepping down from his post.

“In a brief email to The New York Times, Mr. Taylor said he would leave in early January because his temporary appointment to Ukraine last June is set to expire. Under the Vacancies Act, political appointees in an acting position can hold office only for about 200 days. Earlier in the day, people familiar with the planning had suggested he would leave by the end of December. ‘The administration will nominate a permanent ambassador soon,’ Mr. Taylor said. He did not elaborate. His departure was first reported by NBC.” NYT … The NBC scoop

-- EARLIER: “Trump team weighs ambassador pick for Ukraine as ties fray,” by Natasha Bertrand and Nahal Toosi: “Among those being considered to replace [former ambassador Marie] Yovanovitch is retired Lt. Gen. Keith Dayton, a 40-year Army veteran who now serves as director of the Pentagon-affiliated George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies in Germany, according to several people familiar with the search. The president likes Dayton, a Senate aide said, and the former general is ‘willing to take on the job.’” POLITICO

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DAN DIAMOND: “Democrats say HHS stonewalling probe into Verma’s PR contracts”: “Four senior Democratic lawmakers said HHS must turn over more documents about Medicare and Medicaid chief Seema Verma's extensive use of public relations consultants, claiming the department has largely been uncooperative with their investigation.

“The lawmakers said information so far provided by the health department has prompted new questions about Verma’s role in shaping communications contracts, including some that helped burnish her personal brand.

“‘HHS has not fully cooperated with our investigation,’ the Democrats wrote to the health department on Tuesday in a letter first shared with POLITICO. ‘The documents that have been produced to date raise concerns that HHS is holding back significant amounts of relevant information.’” POLITICO

BEYOND THE BELTWAY -- “‘They’ve been blindsided’: Silicon Valley wakes up to Sacramento,” by Katy Murphy in Sacramento

VALLEY TALK -- “You Might Be Buying Trash on Amazon—Literally,” by WSJ’s Khadeeja Safdar, Shane Shifflett and Denise Blostein: “Just about anyone can open a store on Amazon.com and sell just about anything. Just ask the dumpster divers.

“These are among the dedicated cadre of sellers on Amazon who say they sort through other people’s rejects, including directly from the trash, clean them up and list them on Amazon.com.” ...

“Many The Wall Street Journal contacted wouldn’t give details about their listings, said they stopped selling dumpster finds or no longer listed them as new, didn’t respond to inquiries or stopped communicating. Some said they feared Amazon would close their stores.

“So the Journal set out to test whether these claims were true. Reporters went dumpster diving in several New Jersey towns and retrieved dozens of discards from the trash including a stencil set, scrapbook paper and a sealed jar of Trader Joe’s lemon curd. The Journal set up a store on Amazon to see if it could list some of its salvaged goods for sale as new. It turned out to be easy.”

MEDIAWATCH -- “The Human Toll of the 2019 Media Apocalypse,” by GEN’s Maya Kosoff

-- LISTICLE: “Mediaite’s Most Influential in News Media 2019” … FWIW: 1. Sean Hannity and Rachel Maddow; 2. Jeff Zucker; 3. Matt Drudge; 4. Suzanne Scott and Jay Wallace; 5. George Stephanopoulos.

-- Indira Lakshmanan is joining National Geographic as senior executive editor. She previously was executive editor at the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting, a POLITICO Magazine contributor and a reporter at Bloomberg News.

PLAYBOOKERS

Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at [email protected].

IN MEMORIAM -- PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION: “Bob Kinkead, celebrated Washington chef with flair for seafood, dies at 67,” by WaPo’s Emily Langer

SPOTTED: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) at Joe’s Seafood on Tuesday. … Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio) having dinner together at Montmartre on Tuesday night. … Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.) riding the Red Line by himself Tuesday evening, getting off at Dupont Circle.

SPOTTED at a 25th-anniversary celebration of The Washington Diplomat at the residence of Colombian Ambassador Francisco Santos, co-hosted by Qorvis: Maureen Orth, Margaret Carlson, Michael Petruzzello, Matt Lauer, Samantha Sault, Sean and Rebecca Spicer, Scott Thuman, Kate Michael, Howard Mortman, Kenny Day, Kevin Chaffee, Craig Gordon and R. David Edelman.

SPOTTED at Farmers and Distillers on Monday night for the launch of the Bipartisan Cause to Cure Parkinson’s, which will throw a Feb. 10 fundraiser to benefit the Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson’s Research: co-chairs Justin Griffin and Matt Keswick, Alyssa Farah, Andrew Mills, Erica Arbetter, Andrea Holtermann, Maria Giannopoulos, Justin Freeh, James Sonne, Laura and Mike Rigas, Alex Schriver, Chris May, Joe French, Robert Brooks, Paul Alfonso, Megan McCarthy, Kirsten Fedewa, Christian Clansky and Ozzie Palomo.

TREASURY DEPARTURE LOUNGE -- Seth Unger is now VP of government and public affairs for GBX Group, a Cleveland real estate firm. He previously was deputy assistant Treasury secretary for public affairs.

TRANSITIONS -- Lauren Scott is now deputy press secretary for Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). Scott, who recently married Chase Scott (pic), previously was scheduler and press secretary for Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.). … Tamar Thompson is now VP for U.S. government affairs and head of the D.C. office for Alexion Pharmaceuticals. She most recently was head of federal executive branch strategy and state government affairs at Bristol-Myers Squibb. …

… Zachary Hosford is now deputy director of the German Marshall Fund’s Asia Program. He previously was senior foreign policy adviser to Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.). … Robert Greenstein, founder and president of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, will step down at the end of next year, after almost four decades. Announcement

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, is 62. What she’s doing for her birthday: “I am celebrating with my wife, Rabbi Sharon Kleinbaum, and friends. We always try to do something that neither of us has done yet -- so we’re going to the new MoMA and seeing ‘Fiddler on the Roof’ -- in Yiddish!” Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Rep. Bill Posey (R-Fla.) is 72 … Matt Schlapp, chairman of the American Conservative Union and co-founder of Cove Strategies, is 52 … WSJ’s Jeanne Cummings and Andrew Restuccia … former A.G. Ramsey Clark is 92 … Nick Geale … Robb Watters, managing partner at the Madison Group … Google’s Lindsay (Conwell) Stanton and Jesse Suskin … Rachel Streitfeld, senior producer for CNN’s “State of the Union” … Jennifer Scoggins Hanks, director at DCI Group … Rich Luchette … POLITICO’s Ryan McCrimmon … Kate Holliday, director of emerging channels and tech at A4 Media (h/t Jordan Lieberman) … Danielle Moon, legislative assistant for Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) (h/t Sungkwan Jang) … Jackie Levin, executive producer of the third hour of the “Today” show … Hawk Haines …

… Frank Coleman, SVP of public affairs at the Distilled Spirits Council … CNN’s Lisa Respers France … Dov Zakheim … Jon Prior … Julie Donofrio (h/t Tammy Haddad) … Dwight Holton is 54 … Elissa Dodge, EVP at Qorvis Communications … Brunswick’s Linus Turner … Jesse Glicker ... Max Mounkhaty … Liz Halloran, deputy communications director for the Human Rights Campaign … Philip Bennett, scheduler for Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) … Fred Sainz, director of corporate comms at Apple ... Denise Forte … Noam Neusner ... Micah Lasher ... Brendan Kelly ... Lee Spieckerman ... Kristina Budelis ... Spencer Sharp ... AP’s Will Lester is 67 ... Wes Coulam, executive director of Washington Council Ernst & Young ... Anna-Claire Whitehead ... Tyler Lechtenberg ... McCall Johnson … Wendy Strout

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