For observers of politics in the Trump era, the script in Ohio is familiar. A special election pits a young and energetic Democrat against an underwhelming Republican, in an area where many conservatives look askance at Donald Trump.

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Recent elections in Virginia, Pennsylvania and Alabama have been defined by suburban insurgencies, delivering flips from red to blue. For Democrats, the question in Ohio is what kind of win they can take from the last such contest before the November midterms. In a Republican stronghold, a narrow defeat would be a moral victory and an encouraging sign. An actual victory would send shockwaves down to Washington.

In Ohio’s 12th congressional district, Danny O’Connor is the Democrat, Troy Balderson the Republican. Vacated when Pat Tiberi retired to take a private sector job, the seat is centered on the northern suburbs of Columbus. It also takes in depressed rural areas that have stood with the GOP since before the New Deal and grad student housing at Ohio State, where support for Hillary Clinton was huge.

The key voters are in the prosperous suburbs of the state capital. There, O’Connor is trying to woo activists energized by opposition to Trump and moderate Republicans in the mould of John Kasich, the Ohio governor who once represented the district and still calls it his home.

On a hot July Monday, O’Connor spoke to voters like Laura Jacobs, a retiree who supported Trump in 2016 but said she planned on voting Democrat because she was “really looking for change”. He also visited a house full of ardent Democrats who pressed him on the possibility of impeachment after Trump’s summit with Vladimir Putin. O’Connor demurred, insisting special counsel Robert Mueller had to finish his work.

In an interview, O’Connor, a 31-year-old elected county official, continued to walk that tightrope between his party’s progressive base and all-important swing voters. He avoided commenting on new liberal causes such as Medicare for All, insisting he just wanted to protect the Affordable Care Act (ACA).

“I think what we have right now is something that’s worth protecting,” he said. “I think there are small tweaks we can make.”

Corporate tax cuts in the recent Republican bill were “a giveaway”, he said, before expressing support for the parts of the bill that affected the middle class. He also said he would vote for a $15-an-hour minimum wage and oppose private prisons.

The district was not looking for “Democratic solutions or Republicans solutions”, he said, expressing willingness to work with Trump on infrastructure and blaming Congress for not acting on the president’s desire for such a plan.

“That hasn’t gone anywhere because the choice was made by Congress to put $1.9tn on the credit card that’s not paid for,” O’Connor said, adding: “An infrastructure bill is something we can work on.”

Balderson, 56, is a state senator whose campaign touts his “conservative grit”. He did not respond to repeated requests for comment. But he has struck his own balancing act with the president. After saying he could not name a single area of disagreement with Trump and as a result losing the endorsement of the traditionally Republican Columbus Dispatch, he has cited tariffs and the family separation immigration policy as areas of particular difference.

Balderson has faced criticism from within his own party for running a lackluster campaign: despite appearances on his behalf by Vice-President Mike Pence and the House speaker, Paul Ryan, he trails O’Connor in fundraising. He is also at a disadvantage in the Columbus suburbs because he comes from Zanesville, on the far edge of the gerrymandered district, as close to West Virginia as it is to the population center.

The Kasich factor

Trump is not the only nationally known Republican to cast a shadow over Ohio. Kasich has become a divisive figure, a Republican much more popular with Democrats and independents than in his own party because of his willingness to break with Trump and his support for expanding Medicaid under the ACA.

Balderson has been a staunch opponent of Medicaid expansion and other Kasich initiatives. He has, however, touted links to the governor in his campaign ads.

O’Connor strongly supports Medicaid expansion. Asked if he thought Kasich had been a good governor, though, he said “that’s a good question”, cleared his throat and said: “I don’t think so.” He particularly criticized Kasich for having the state government take funds away from local authorities.

Kasich has stayed out of the race. In an interview with Guardian, he said: “I would be inclined to be for [Balderson and] probably will be once I can make sure that I am going to see some independence.”

The governor said his concern stemmed from the interview in which Balderson could not name any disagreement with Trump. As the candidate had “now pointed some out”, Kasich said, “we’ll see”.

For O’Connor, the challenge is to win over voters who think like Kasich, those whom David Pepper, chairman of the Ohio Democratic party, described to the Guardian as suburbanites, “particularly women, who were people perfectly happy voting for Mitt Romney and George W Bush but who do not want to vote for Donald Trump”.

Election day is 7 August, just three months before the midterms. For Republicans, regardless of the final result, a strong Democratic performance among those voters will be a sign of trouble to come in November.