All sides stand firm

With a deal on the customs union already in the bag, all eyes are on the meaningful vote amendment. Most of the last year’s 11 Tory rebels, led by the former attorney general Dominic Grieve, have indicated they will stand firm. Their number was boosted on Tuesday morning by the resignation of Philip Lee, and rumours were swirling at Westminster that others might yet join the rebel alliance. But the Tory backbenchers might not be alone in digging in. Downing Street has officially ruled out backing Grieve’s 11th-hour amendment, tabled on Monday night, making it unlikely to be put to a vote unless No 10 reverses its decision. If both sides stand firm, a government defeat is on the cards.

Last-minute government offer

Despite the chief whip, Julian Smith, dining with Grieve on Monday night, the rebel alliance has not yet been convinced by the government’s own amendment. “I do remain hopeful of a compromise on the meaningful vote,” one potential rebel said. The solicitor general, Robert Buckland, has hinted at a government concession at the despatch box, but Grieve and the others have yet to bite. When the Commons last decided on the meaningful vote, in December, ministers offered last-minute concessions at the end of the debate, but it prompted shouts of “too late” from the Tory rebels, who then went on to defeat the government. If MPs accept that the government’s offer of more talks is made in good faith, then the prime minister could escape a damaging parliamentary defeat, but she would emerge weakened.

Tory rebels bow to pressure

Grieve and other Tory rebels have suggested they could back the Lords amendment, which has a much more expansive role for parliament, if the government does not compromise further. But they have come under intense pressure from the whips and the prime minister herself not to destabilise the government. She told her cabinet on Tuesday morning: “Anything which undermines the government at home would make negotiations with the EU more difficult.” The rebels have long experienced attacks from the rightwing press, and the remainer Anna Soubry claimed that at least one MP would not vote with their conscience because of threats to their personal safety or that of staff or family. If the Tory rebels bow to pressure and back the government’s amendment, No 10 will breathe a big sigh of relief.

Labour Brexiters let government off the hook

Labour whips believe they have persuaded all but the most hardline of their Brexit-backing colleagues to support the meaningful vote, increasing the chances that the government is defeated. One Labour insider said: “It was always going to be close but we hope all Labour MPs heed our call for parliament to be given a meaningful vote.” Jeremy Corbyn intervened personally in December to persuade leavers, including Denis Skinner and Graham Stringer, to support the original Grieve amendment, which the Lords has sought to strengthen. The prospect of delivering a damaging blow to the Conservatives was just too tempting. Only two – Kate Hoey and Frank Field – voted with the government. If even a couple more joined them this time round, they could hand May her victory.