Albany

In the little more than three months since Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver's arrest plunged state government into chaos, a precarious sense of normalcy settled on the state Capitol.

The state budget was passed close to the March 31 deadline, and after the standard break lawmakers returned to Albany and began passing the sort of routine bills that fill the active list in April and May. Business as usual.

Things could get unusual this week.

With reports that Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos could be arrested as early as Monday in connection with a corruption investigation, the Capitol is poised to take another tailspin.

Skelos has acknowledged being the subject of a federal investigation, which numerous reports have connected to his son's work for a stormwater remediation firm that secured a $12 million contract with Nassau County, the leader's power base. On Friday, the New York Times and Wall Street Journal reported that arrests in the case, brought by the office of U.S. Attorney for the Southern District Preet Bharara, were imminent.

"It is not unprecedented for a legislative leader to be indicted," Siena College pollster and longtime legislative observer Steve Greenberg said before listing recent Senate leaders who were charged with wrongdoing (Joseph L. Bruno, John Sampson and Malcolm Smith).

"But obviously we have not seen two legislative leaders indicted in such close proximity to each other. ... What will happen in the final several weeks of session in the Senate will very much be an open question given that if Sen. Skelos is in fact indicted you will have the Senate's two Republican leaders (Skelos and Sen. Tom Libous) both under indictment."

"To a certain extent, while we have seen all this before, we are potentially moving into some uncharted territory," Greenberg added.

However, GOP Sen. Hugh Farley of Schenectady expressed optimism.

"We're quite efficient in the Senate," he said. "We always get our work done. The committees are meeting, and we're working very well. I'm very confident about the future. I'm quite sure that Sen. Skelos will be exonerated."

Silver's arrest resulted from another Bharara probe and was initially met with declarations of support from his Democratic conference, which commands an overwhelming majority in the Assembly. His support eroded within four days as members studied the federal indictment against him and weighed the political cost of standing by him through a protracted legal battle.

Skelos' situation presents a very different set of obstacles for his Republican conference, which commands the 63-seat chamber by a bare 32-member majority.

The GOP's partnership with six breakaway Democrats — the Independent Democratic Conference as well as Sen. Simcha Felder — currently gives them a total of 38 votes.

While Silver had weathered scandals before his loss of power, Democratic control of the chamber was never in question.

Skelos took control of the GOP majority following Bruno's retirement at the close of the 2008 session. After Democrats took their own bare majority in that year's elections, Skelos was part of a group of Republicans who convinced two Democrats to switch loyalties in June 2009, pitching the chamber into a monthlong crisis.

Republicans retook control of the Senate in 2010, and managed to maintain it after the 2012 vote thanks to a sometimes awkward power-sharing agreement with the IDC. Republican gains in 2014 gave the party its bare majority, though the partnership with the IDC continues under new terms.

Deputy Majority Leader Thomas Libous, also under indictment for allegedly lying to federal investigators, told Gannett last week he expects to return to work but that when he would appear in Albany this year, if at all, is unclear. He has suffered from complications of ongoing cancer treatment and back surgery — another factor that pitches control of the chamber into limbo.

As was the case immediately following Silver's arrest, an immediate successor to Skelos, if he steps down, isn't obvious. Carl Heastie rose from near-obscurity to fill Silver's seat. It's thought that John Flanagan of Long Island, John DeFrancisco of Syracuse or Cathy Young of Olean could succeed Skelos.

Amid these question marks, it is unclear what legislative business will be accomplished.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo struck a tone of optimism last week — prior to reports of Skelos' impending arrest — when he said that an investigation into the leader is a complication, but it's the governor's job to deal with complications.

mhamilton@timesunion.com • 518-454-5449 • @matt_hamilton10