More than 80% of the 130 confirmed candidates fighting the first elections for police and crime commissioners this autumn are male, according to the latest official analysis.

There are fewer than 100 days to go to the election on 15 November of the first commissioners with the power to hire and fire chief constables and set budgets in the 41 police force areas in England and Wales outside London.

The home secretary, Theresa May, has already made an 11th-hour attempt to rescue the policy by securing £3m from the Treasury to fund an ad campaign in October amid ministerial fears of an embarrassing flop, with low turnouts and poor-quality candidates.

However, a recent commentary by the influential website ConservativeHome suggested that even on the Conservatives' current discouraging polling figures they could still end up "winning" these elections by taking 21 of the jobs with Labour taking 20.

The PCC elections will be held the same day as Westminster byelections in Manchester Central and Cardiff South where sitting MPs have quit to stand as police commissioners. There is already speculation that the byelection in Corby and East Northamptonshire, where the Conservative Louise Mensch is quitting, will also be held on the same day to neutralise the impact of an expected Labour victory.

The analysis by the Association of Police and Crime Commissioners (APCC) shows that Labour has a complete slate of candidates in place for 15 November and the Conservatives have named their hopefuls in all but five force areas: Gwent, North Wales, South Wales, South Yorkshire and Merseyside.

The Liberal Democrats initially decided nationally to pass up the chance of fielding candidates but have now entered the fray with local parties advertising for candidates in six areas, including Manchester. So far the party has adopted official candidates in three areas – Avon and Somerset, Northamptonshire and Surrey.

Things have already got messy for the party in Devon and Cornwall, where Brian Greenslade, who was the Lib Dem leader on the Association of Police Authorities, risks being suspended from the party after declaring his intention this week to stand as an independent. The party has already said it will field an official candidate in Devon and Cornwall and the North Devon council leader risks being disciplined if he stands against them.

The APCC analysis shows that 43 independents have confirmed their candidacy. But May will be unsettled to discover that her hopes of attracting high-profile, high-quality candidates from beyond the world of politics appear to have flopped. The Falklands hero Simon Weston is among those who have dropped out.

Instead, the list of independents includes four English Democrats, one leading light of the English Defence League, and a Monster Raving Loony. The most high-profile independent is the magistrate Ann Barnes, who is resigning as chair of the Kent police authority to stand as the county's PCC on an anti-police-privatisation platform.

As equality minister, May will also be disappointed to find that 81% of the confirmed candidates are men. While the latest list includes male former ministers such as Lord Prescott, Alun Michael, Tony Lloyd and Michael Mates, the most prominent women standing are the former solicitor general Vera Baird and the ex-minister Jane Kennedy.

Even those Conservatives who have been selected are not necessarily likely to endear themselves to May. The party's official candidate in the West Midlands, Matt Bennett, has already declared he will abandon the force's private partnership plans.