After what’s been a mostly God-awful year at the movies, the fall festival season has felt more necessary than ever, a warm hug after eight months of being repeatedly slapped in the face.

Shot-in-the-dark speculation over next year’s awards race has been replaced with far more informed predictions, a guessing game still, but one that’s already easier to play. By this time last year, we’d already seen six of the eight best picture nominees and so with Venice, Telluride and Toronto out of the way once again, we can sift through the hits and misses to figure out what films and performances will have enough power to motor their way through to February.

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Let’s start with Venice, a festival that’s become a reliable launching pad for the surer bets – in previous years Birdman, Gravity, The Shape of Water, Roma and La La Land all debuted – although this year’s crop offered up a more mixed bag than usual. The biggest story came from an unlikely place: a DC movie from The Hangover director Todd Phillips. Grimy origins tale Joker would have arrived with a question mark no matter where it landed but playing in competition at arguably the most prestigious film festival in the world, it was an even wilder curio, the highest profile slot a comic book movie has ever snagged. Reviews were mostly rapturous, especially for star Joaquin Phoenix in the lead, and it went on to win the festival’s biggest prize, the Golden Lion, one of only six American films to do so in the last 30 years. It continued to impress in Toronto although some pushback began and negative reviews started to flood in, criticising its superficial emptiness and potentially worrying effect on what’s set to be a massive audience. At this stage, I’d bet heavily on a nomination and even a win for Phoenix but the film might struggle to sustain itself with voters who might be repelled by its subject matter and (*whispers*) one-note vacuity.

After winning last year’s Golden Lion with Roma, Netflix returned with their second Noah Baumbach project, the bittersweet divorce drama Marriage Story. It was met with universal acclaim (after both Venice and Toronto, it’s one of the rare films to sustain a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes) and while Baumbach’s films haven’t typically scored with the Academy (his one nomination was in 2006 for the screenplay of The Squid and the Whale), most agreed that this was his finest and most expansive film to date. Nominations for stars Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson, both on career-best form, seem like sure things while Laura Dern’s eye-catching turn as a tenacious lawyer should also snag her a supporting actress nod, thanks largely to a powerful speech she gives on how society judges mothers. There’s a lot going for it (it’s also set in the entertainment industry which voters love) but it feels like the kind of film which might not seem splashy or important enough for the Academy to give its top prize to although I can see it scoring with a lot of critics circles.

There were also polite reviews for James Gray’s long-gestating space epic Ad Astra and Steven Soderbergh’s financial satire The Laundromat but both were commonly seen as awards race non-starters while the less said about Kristin Stewart’s muddled Seberg, the better.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Matt Damon and Christian Bale in Ford v Ferrari. Photograph: Merrick Morton/Fox

Away to the mountains soon after for Telluride, a more boutiquey festival that over a long weekend tends to premiere a more starry, and more mainstream, bunch of contenders – previous festivals have welcomed Wild, The Imitation Game, Moonlight, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, 12 Years a Slave and Ladybird.

This year, one of the safest conclusions is that Renee Zellweger will be making a flashy awards season comeback with her role as Judy Garland in Judy. The film received mixed notices, with many critiquing its by-the-numbers storytelling, but almost everyone was in agreement over Zellweger’s effective performance and the Academy loves an off-screen narrative, the former winner returning to the fold after years in the wilderness. There was another safe bet in the shape of Ford v Ferrari, starring Matt Damon and Christian Bale, which seems to be taking the slot of this year’s boringly solid “I guess so” contender, the kind of film no one really gets excited about but no one truly hates. The audience at the Toronto premiere responded with a great deal of enthusiasm, more so than some of the later reviews. Acting recognition depends on how Fox decides to campaign the two leads, one of whom will likely to be demoted to supporting, but you can expect it to take the eighth best picture slot before promptly being forgotten about by March.

Critics admired the effects in sturdy Felicity Jones/Eddie Redmayne ballooning adventure The Aeronauts, while recognising its cliches, suggesting its awards chances might be slim while most found Edward Norton’s labour of love/vanity project Motherless Brooklyn to be a misfire. There was early buzz and early enthusiasm for Krisha director Trey Edward Shults’ bold and stylistic A24 drama Waves, with some comparing it to Moonlight, but by the time it showed at Toronto, reviews started to sour. It could still be an Independent Spirit Awards contender but anything bigger is unlikely. Most seemed to like The Two Popes, a film that also went on to be a big hit with audiences in Toronto, and Netflix’s papal drama, starring lead/supporting actor contenders Jonathan Pryce and Anthony Hopkins, could be a reliable awards mainstay this season while finally, Adam Sandler could see himself in the running for a best actor trophy for his barnstorming turn in the Safdie brothers’ exhausting drama Uncut Gems, but the film’s abrasiveness could turn some voters off.

Just a week later and all eyes were focused on Toronto, a festival that boasts the most stars if not the most slam-dunks in terms of awards season – previous premieres include If Beale Street Could Talk, Still Alice, I, Tonya, Lion and The Martian. Last year saw Green Book start its shock crawl to winning best picture, giving the festival a much-needed bump, and this year saw a few similarly effective crowd-pleasers spark awards talk. The surprise name on everybody’s lips during the week was Jennifer Lopez, whose performance as a stripper stealing from her clientele in the raucously entertaining fact-based drama Hustlers was praised by almost every critic. It’s a sensational turn in a film that was also largely praised and had many, including myself, predicting a best supporting actress nomination. The Academy already loves her (she’s one of their most used picks to announce an award) and the film is shaping up to be one of the fall’s biggest sleeper hits, everything aligning for a dream campaign.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Photograph: Lacey Terrell/TIFF

Another sure bet from Toronto came from two-time Oscar winner Tom Hanks and his deep-rooted transformation as much-loved kids TV star Mister Rogers in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Avoiding the structure of a traditional biopic, the pic instead positions Rogers as a kindly figure in the life of a journalist interviewing him meaning that Hanks will likely be running as supporting actor which would, astonishingly, be his first nomination in 19 years as he was snubbed for Captain Phillips, Bridge of Spies and The Post. Expect the film to also get best picture recognition with screenings accompanied by pretty much non-stop sniffles. There was a similarly emotive reaction to fact-based legal drama Just Mercy which starred Michael B Jordan as lawyer Bryan Stevenson. The film was seen as boringly made by some but almost all appreciated its powerful narrative and while Jordan’s role might be a bit too muted for Academy attention, it’s likely that Oscar winner Jamie Foxx, playing a falsely imprisoned inmate, will grab a best supporting actor nomination. The film itself is also the kind of solid, tear-jerking, crowd-pleaser that could see it genuinely affecting voters, this year’s Green Book if you will, just without the whitewashing.

One of the festival’s most enthusiastically received films was Rian Johnson’s devilishly entertaining whodunnit Knives Out, a star-studded Agatha Christie homage that had the most ebullient audience reaction I’ve seen for months. It’s probably not an awards contender although if voters react as well as Toronto critics did, then a screenplay nomination could happen. Another audience favourite was Takia Waititi’s second world war comedy Jojo Rabbit, which sees him playing Hitler as cast as a buffoonish imaginary friend. Critical response was mixed but its simple, twee storytelling could work with the Academy who might respond to Scarlett Johansson’s charming supporting performance. The film also received a major boost yesterday winning the festival’s people’s choice award, seen as a predictor of Oscar success. Voters might also warm to Eddie Murphy’s turn in biopic Dolemite is My Name and especially to his redemptive arc off-screen which could secure him a best actor nomination.

Elsewhere the festival saw a lot of half-misses. Impassioned but formulaic Harriet Tubman biopic Harriet received muddled praise for star Cynthia Erivo but not the film itself, Noah Hawley’s wild astronaut drama Lucy in the Sky was seen as a stylish diversion but we won’t see Natalie Portman returning to the best actress category after some scornful reactions while the much-anticipated adaptation of The Goldfinch crash-landed with some of the festival’s harshest reviews.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Yeo-jeong Jo in Parasite. Photograph: AP

Both Telluride and Toronto also provided a major boost to Cannes favourite Parasite, Bong Joon-Ho’s savage satire that many claim could be South Korea’s first ever best foreign language film nominee and even find its way into the best picture race. Cannes also saw Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon A Time in Hollywood launch its steady journey to the Oscars with the film likely to pick up a number of major nominations, maybe including a supporting actor win for Brad Pitt, while Pedro Almodóvar’s autobiographical drama Pain and Glory might push Antonio Banderas into the lead acting race. Sundance also saw deserved buzz for Grand Jury prize winner Clemency and star Alfre Woodard although it might be too small to register for voters while Awkwafina’s charming performance in The Farewell will be a critics circle favourite and possibly, with a strong campaign, creep into bigger awards consideration. Annette Bening’s non-gimmicky turn as Dianne Feinstein in The Report could also slide into the best supporting actress category although the film could be too dense and talky for some.

The year is far from over though and there are a number of big bets we’ve yet to see. One of the biggest is unveiled in less than two weeks, Martin Scorsese’s Netflix saga The Irishman starring Robert De Niro and Al Pacino. It premieres at the New York film festival before a limited release pre-empts its streaming bow. There’s also plenty of buzz around Jay Roach’s Roger Ailes drama Bombshell which focuses on the women who brought him down. While the recent trailer seemed to suggest that Margot Robbie would be the lead, it’s reportedly Charlize Theron as Megyn Kelly who dominates the film and could see her back in the running for the first time since 2005’s North Country. The star-packed cast also includes Nicole Kidman, John Lithgow, Kate McKinnon, Allison Janney, Malcolm McDowell and Rob Delaney making it a strong contender for best ensemble cast at next year’s SAG awards.

Sam Mendes is also returning with his first non-007 film since 2009’s Away We Go and his first world war drama 1917 could be his Dunkirk with an ensemble of younger British actors as well as supporting turns for Colin Firth and Benedict Cumberbatch. This year’s AFI festival will open with Bonnie and Clyde-esque drama Queen & Slim starring Oscar nominee Daniel Kaluuya and the trailer suggests at the very least some stunning visuals thanks to acclaimed music video director Melina Matsoukas. And finally, with a prime Christmas Day release, expect awards aplenty for Greta Gerwig’s Little Women adaptation with a cast that includes Saoirse Ronan, Emma Watson, Laura Dern, Timothee Chalamet and Florence Pugh, who rumours suggest could be the film’s ace.

Ten safe-ish nominee bets

Adam Driver – best actor, Marriage Story

Jennifer Lopez – best supporting actress, Hustlers

Quentin Tarantino – best director, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Tom Hanks – best supporting actor, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Renee Zellweger – best actress, Judy

Jamie Foxx – best supporting actor, Just Mercy

Joaquin Phoenix – best actor, Joker

Brad Pitt – best supporting actor, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Bong Joon-Ho – best director, Parasite

Laura Dern – best supporting actress, Marriage Story