Tired of winter yet? Another snowstorm is on the way, followed by another blast of frigid Arctic air. (Aristide Economopoulos | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com)

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By Len Melisurgo | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

The key ingredients for a blockbuster snowstorm on Thursday appear to be locked in: Cold air already in place, and lots of moisture on the way.

However, one huge factor that remains uncertain is the exact track of the storm system that will move up the Atlantic coast Wednesday and intensify as it moves toward Cape Cod on Thursday. The precise track will mean the difference between a minor nuisance snow event or a potentially sizable snowstorm for New Jersey and New York City.

Weather forecasters say if the center of this storm system moves far offshore, this storm will be a bust for most of the Garden State and the Big Apple. However, if the center tracks closer to the Atlantic coast, the storm has the potential to dump as much as 10 to 12 inches of snow over many parts of our region.

During the past two days, computer guidance models have been very inconsistent on where the storm is most likely to end up. That’s why many snowfall projections have ranged anywhere from 1 to 6 inches, and some forecasters have been predicting snowfall totals as high as a half foot to a foot.

"It's a game of inches," said Sarah Johnson, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's regional forecast office in New Jersey. "How close (the center of the storm gets to the coast) makes a big difference. If it just wobbles thirty miles to the west, then we could see bigger impacts farther west."

UPDATE: Blizzard warning issued for parts of N.J.

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All day Thursday meteorologists are going to be glued to the new GOES-East satellite watching a truly amazing extratopical "bomb" cyclone off New England coast. It will be massive -- fill up entire Western Atlantic off U.S. East Coast. Pressure as low as Sandy & hurricane winds pic.twitter.com/6M4S3y75wT — Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 2, 2018

'Bomb cyclone'

Some weather experts are referring to the impending January coastal storm as a "bomb cyclone" because the low-pressure system that is moving up from the Florida area is expected to rapidly intensify as it works its way toward eastern New England and eastern Canada.

If the storm's central pressure drops substantially during a 24-hour period, that would result in a strengthening process known as bombogenesis.

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Here's how much snow the National Weather Service is predicting for most of New Jersey, as well as parts of Maryland and Delaware. The snow forecast for northeastern sections of New Jersey, New York City and Long Island are included in a map below. (updated Wednesday morning)

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The latest forecasts

The National Weather Service is currently calling for 4 to 6 inches of snow in coastal sections of New Jersey, from Monmouth County down to Cape May County, and 3 to 4 inches in western sections of Monmouth and Ocean, as well as in parts of Burlington, Atlantic and Cumberland counties.

The weather service is predicting 2 to 3 inches of snow in Middlesex, Mercer and Camden counties, and 1 to 2 inches of snow in northeastern counties like Bergen, Essex and Hudson.

UPDATED FORECAST (WED., JAN. 3)

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Here's how much snow the National Weather Service is predicting for northeastern New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, the lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut. (updated Wednesday morning)

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Worst-case scenario (low probability)

If the worst-case scenario occurs — if the storm tracks closer to the coast — some sections of New Jersey could get hit with as much as 8 to 12 inches of snow, the National Weather Service said. However, as of early Tuesday evening, that scenario has only a 10 percent probability of occurring.

"There's still a potential for both (scenarios) — an offshore track and a track closer to the coast," said Mitchell Gaines, a weather service meteorologist. But the more likely scenario, he said, is the one that calls for far less snow.

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This is the worst-case scenario for Thursday's snowstorm, with the National Weather Service giving these snowfall projections only a 10 percent chance of occurring.

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Higher snow forecast

At least one local meteorologist, Steven DiMartino, who owns the NY NJ PA Weather company in Freehold, is anticipating higher snowfall totals than the National Weather Service is forecasting.

DiMartino is projecting a wide swath of 6 to 12 inches in eastern sections of New Jersey, as well as in New York City and Long Island, and 3 to 6 inches across northern and western sections of New Jersey.

"If the storm tracks closer to the coast, heavy snow can be expected to impact further west," he said in a Twitter post Tuesday afternoon. "A track further east, snowfall totals will be half of what is forecasted."

Matthew Potter, a meteorologist at WeatherWorks Inc. in Warren County, said he is fairly confident the core of the storm system will remain far off-shore, so he believes most of New Jersey won't be getting too much snow.

Potter is anticipating 2 to 4 inches or 3 to 6 inches along the state’s coastal areas, and 1 to 3 inches in the Mercer, Middlesex and Somerset region of Central New Jersey. He said some heavier bands of snow could set up along parts of the Shore, so it's possible some places could get 6 inches or perhaps 8.

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First Call Snowfall Forecast for January 4, 2017 ***HIGH VOLATILITY***



Technical and non-technical discussions on the way.https://t.co/GQqOZnryBg pic.twitter.com/vNnwC2eL3z — NY NJ PA Weather (@nynjpaweather) January 2, 2018

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When will the storm begin?

Snow is expected to start falling late Wednesday night, around midnight and continue into Thursday morning and afternoon. The storm should wind down by Thursday night, forecasters said.

As the storm system will come from the south, the snow will begin in South Jersey and work its way north.

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Sub-zero wind chills

As the storm moves north, it is expected to rapidly strengthen, delivering strong winds from the northwest that will push temperatures even colder than they already have been during these frigid recent days, the National Weather Service said.

By late Thursday, steady winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected across New Jersey, with possible gusts over 30 mph, creating bitter wind chills as temperatures fall from the 20s into the teens, the weather service said.

Thursday night, gusty winds coupled with temperatures that will drop into the single digits and low teens will freeze the Garden State deeper with sub-zero wind chills. Well-below-freezing temperatures are expected to linger through Friday and Saturday.

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Snow is expected to start falling late Wednesday night and continue Thursday morning and afternoon. (Dominic Serrao | For The Star-Ledger)

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Winter storm watch

Early Tuesday, the National Weather Service issued a winter storm watch for five New Jersey counties in advance of the snowstorm.

The watch is effective from 9 p.m. Wednesday through 7 p.m. Thursday in Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth and Ocean counties, along with the southeastern area of Burlington County.

UPDATED WATCHES & WARNINGS (WED., JAN. 3)

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So, if central central pressure of a LOW drops twice the rate of "bombogenesis" is that "hyper-bombogenesis"?? GFS and ECMWF think so... #winter pic.twitter.com/wrGxUYwXTX — Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) January 1, 2018

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Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.