In short…no.

For this to make sense you need a basic understanding of markets. Markets are driven by supply and demand. If I want to sell a gizmo and it’s an awesome gizmo that a lot of people want (high demand), I can go to market and sell it to the highest bidder. If I want to sell that same gizmo and there is only 1 person who wants to buy it (low demand), I either sell it to him or throw it in the garbage.

More demand = more margin = more profit.

So what does this have to do with healthcare? Well almost everywhere else in the world healthcare providers only have one potential customer, the government that provides a centralized healthcare plan. This gives the government enormous pricing power in keeping healthcare costs low. They have a demand monopoly. In the US we have a fragmented market of demand. Different insurance providers secure different rates from different hospitals depending on how many subscribers they have in the region. This inefficiency is why the US has the highest healthcare spending (2.5x the average!) in the WORLD and some of the worst healthcare outcomes.

Medicare for all works because it breaks healthcare out of private markets and establishes a monopoly with unfair bargaining power (like every other country in the world).

So let’s look at numbers.

The US spends the most by a staggering amount, ~$10,200. The next highest is Switzerland that spends 30% less with ~$7,100. The average is less than half of the US at ~$4,100 and the median is Finland at ~$4,100.

This isn’t anything new, but did you know that the US Federal government pays for 58% of all healthcare costs in the US already?

Yes that means you pay 58% through taxes!

This means if you just look at how much the government (and by extension you, the taxpayer) pay for healthcare in the US, we’re still paying, just through taxes, almost 50% more than the average (45.6% to be exact).

Say it again for the kids in the back.

WE’RE ALREADY PAYING 50% MORE IN TAXES THAN OTHER COUNTRIES FOR WORSE HEALTH OUTCOMES.

The share of US federal spending on healthcare is almost 50% more than the average and only $1,000 less than the next highest spender in the world, Switzerland. In fact, there are only two countries in the world with higher per capita spending than the amount the US Federal Government pays, Switzerland and Norway.

Why? Because the US Federal government has to compete for healthcare services in that same fragmented market and it drives prices up for everyone.

This means Pete’s (and now Elizabeth’s) “natural glide path” is fundamentally flawed. In a fragmented market medicare costs will not come down enough because the demand monopoly will not exist. Costs will not come down, there won’t be a natural adoption of Medicare when there isn’t a significant pricing disparity, and the enormous profits of the pharma and healthcare industry will be protected. Mission accomplished if you care more about corporate profits than American health outcomes.

Before people get all uppity, the reason that Bernie Sander’s healthcare plan has additional costs associated with it is twofold.

His plan is best in class healthcare anywhere in the world, including Switzerland. Bernie wants the best for America and our citizens which means best in class healthcare which means a higher total cost. His analysts priced in a conservative measure for the costs savings of establishing a healthcare monopoly. If they were more aggressive his plan would be cheaper.

So, if anyone ever says “bUt MeDiCaRe FoR aLl Is ToO eXpEnSiVe!” smack them over the head with this article. Here is the reality; if we had medicare for all today, we would be paying less in taxes for healthcare than the current system. Bernie’s Medicare for All proposal is properly budgeted and gets Americans the best healthcare in the world, the way it should be.

Anyone fighting against Medicare for All is either a complete dullard who can’t do basic math, or a shill for corporate profits. Where does your candidate stand?

P.S. If you want to look at my math or have questions on the data/methodology please feel free to leave a comment. Link to the spreadsheet here.