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Say this for him: Ron Paul puts his money where his mouth is. Over the past 16 years, the dollar-doom-and-gloom prophet has invested heavily in gold-mining stocks. It's his hedge against what the Texas Republican congressman and perennial presidential candidate calls "The Great Inflation," which he has long preached is inevitable, given the profligacy of the federal government and the easy monetary policies of the Federal Reserve. Fortunately for Ron Paul and his army of gold-bug disciples, the "stopped clock" investment strategy finally seems to be paying off. Gold and gold futures prices have been hitting record highs.

Gold-mining stocks, where Paul has the bulk of his money, have also hit pay dirt, albeit rising at a slower pace. Gold is up about 28% this year, through Thursday, to $1,823.80 a troy ounce, and 106.8% since 2009. In the same periods, the NYSE ARCA Gold Miners Index is down 2.9% and up 78.6%. The S&P 500 is down 9.3% and up 26.3%.

In his most recent financial disclosure, which covers the year 2010, Paul had $1.6 million to $3.5 million in gold- mining stocks. He also has a stake in three bear-market funds—and has for many years.

With gold hitting record highs, Paul's "stopped clock" portfolio looks like it's finally paying off. Reuters/Jim Young/Landov

In all, Ron Paul's portfolio amounts to a super bearish bet against the U.S. economy. If the country had defaulted on its debt earlier this month, he likely would have made a bundle. The congressman voted against House Speaker John Boehner's plan to lift the nation's $14.3 trillion spending cap.

TO OUR SURPRISE, Paul's financial disclosures reveal no holdings of physical gold, gold coins, or gold equivalents like certain exchange-traded gold funds, which is confounding, given his strident advocacy of the metal as an insurance policy against the almost-certain debasement of the currency by politicians and central bankers. So we dug around a little. In his financial-disclosure form for the years 1994 through 2002, Paul reported holding "semi-numismatic" coins worth between $100,001 and $250,000. But from 2003 onward, they were never mentioned again.

Rachel Mills, the congressman's press spokesperson, said Paul, who generally is garrulous on the topic of hard money, did not wish to comment. According to the 2010 guidelines by the House committee on Official Conduct, "Personal property, if held for investment or the production of income, must be disclosed if it meets the reporting thresholds. Collectibles can include, but are not limited to, works of art, vintage automobiles, stamps, jewelry, precious metals, rare coins, and books."

Based on his congressional financial disclosures going back to 1994, Paul is a buy-and-hold investor who seldom cashes in his winning picks. He's owned shares of Agnico Eagle Mines (ticker: AEM), Barrick Gold (ABX) and Goldcorp (GG) since at least 1994. And he made additions to his gold-mining portfolio in 2003, the year the U.S. invaded Iraq, adding a dozen new mining stocks to his portfolio, while selling shares of Barrick Gold and his entire stake in Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX), which he had owned since at least 1994. He unloaded $27,440 worth of Pan American Silver warrants, purchased in January 2003, as the stock market was tanking in February 2008. In 2010, he sold $50,000 to $100,000 worth of his Goldcorp shares with hardly any gains.

Paul, who vows that as president he would abolish the Federal Reserve, also owns stakes valued at $1,001 to $15,000 apiece in three contrarian mutual funds: Federated Prudent Bear (BEARX); Rydex Dynamic Nasdaq-100 2X (RYVYX), an inverse bet on the Nasdaq; and Rydex Inverse S&P 500 Strategy (RYURX), which bets against the S&P 500. And he owns $1,001 to $15,000 worth of Dundee Corp. (DC-A.Canada), a Toronto-based investment management firm heavily into minerals.

Paul's investment strategy is a financial planner's nightmare. Most pros say that gold-mining stocks should be a small part of a diverse portfolio because the shares tend to outperform in bull markets but underperform in bear markets. Mining stocks, for example, were among the most dismal performers in 2008.

David Christensen, CEO of ASA Gold and Precious Metals (ASA), a closed-end fund, told us that mining shares have historically been more volatile than hard gold. If bullion went up 10%, for example, you'd see a 20% gain or more in gold-mining stocks, he said. But lately that has changed. "In the last six to nine months, gold-mining shares have not exhibited that amount of leverage," said Christensen. He thinks exchange-traded funds trading in gold, which are a more efficient way for investors to own bullion, have drawn off some investment dollars from gold-mining shares.

Paul has been predicting disastrous inflation since President Richard Milhous Nixon took the U.S. off the gold standard in 1971. According to his scenario, inflation will be so severe that people will abandon the dollar and insist on hard money like gold for payment.

A 2010 blog post expands on the idea. Massive inflation, he wrote, "guts the savings and earnings of the people, who have very limited options for protecting themselves against these ravages. One option is to convert their fiat currency into something out of reach of central banks and government spending, such as gold or silver."

But if he's wrong, bullion prices likely will pull back as the born-again gold bugs rush to take profits. Gold-mining shares would pull back even more if history is any guide, taking a lot of the glitter of Ron Paul's gains.

Pot of Gold: Ron Paul's Top 10 Holdings Return*Return*Size ofCompany/Ticker1-Yr3-YrHolding / GG19.13% 17.00%$500,001 - $1,000,000 / ABX12.2415.49$250,001 - $500,000 C Stock / NEM 1.1212.02$250,001 - $500,000 / AEM1.135.88$100,001 - $250,000 / AU2.0219.33$100,001 - $250,000 / IAG3.6952.07$100,001 - $250,000 / MVG39.979.75$50,001 - $100,000 / PAAS22.724.71$50,001 - $100,000 / SLW74.5149.54$50,001 - $100,000Virginia Mines / VGMNF.OTC28.0531.11$15,001 - $50,000Gold48.3431.61S&P 5006.04-1.25*All returns are as of 8/18/11; three-year returns are annualized.

Sources: Bloomberg; OpenSecrets.org / GG19.13% 17.00%$500,001 - $1,000,000 / ABX12.2415.49$250,001 - $500,000 C Stock / NEM 1.1212.02$250,001 - $500,000 / AEM1.135.88$100,001 - $250,000 / AU2.0219.33$100,001 - $250,000 / IAG3.6952.07$100,001 - $250,000 / MVG39.979.75$50,001 - $100,000 / PAAS22.724.71$50,001 - $100,000 / SLW74.5149.54$50,001 - $100,000/ VGMNF.OTC28.0531.11$15,001 - $50,00048.3431.616.04-1.25*All returns are as of 8/18/11; three-year returns are annualized.Sources: Bloomberg; OpenSecrets.org

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