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This week I’ll be starting a short series on tools to aid in MTG(O) Finance. For now, the series will focus on spreadsheets (such as Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets) and ways to utilize them to both track specs and make buy/sell decisions. I know some people just want to hear about my #BattleOfTix progress, especially since I’ve….excelled in the past couple of weeks. So, the article will basically be split in two, so you can take what you’d like from it. Let’s get started, first order of business #BattleOfTix Update!

Part 1 - Progress Report

So, my portfolio grew pretty well the past couple of weeks. This growth isn’t really attributed to any one thing, rather, the sum of several things going my way.

The $affronOlive Effect

A significant portion of my profits came from $affronOlive’s Devil’s Goggles budget magic brew that came out last week. I focused on three cards: Descent of the Dragons, Pyromancer's Goggles, and Devils' Playground. Combined, these three specs pulled in 114.21 tix for me in profit.

Name Set Price/Card # Bought Avg Sale Price Profit Descent of the Dragons DTK 0.672 81 1.920 101.16 Pyromancer's Goggles ORI 3.700 4 6.828 12.51 Devils' Playground SOI 0.012 49 0.022 0.54 Total 114.21

The Descent of the Dragons spec let me put into good practice avoiding a couple of Deadly Sins. I was pretty confident that the spec would work out, so I went somewhat deep, showing no sign of Meekness. I was also able to contain my Greed and made use of some Dollar-cost averaging. To give you a concrete example, here are all my sales numbers, in rough chronological order. I started selling a few as low as 1.4 tix, just in case they didn’t spike any higher, and I got out close to 2 tix when I felt they were at or near their ceiling:

# Sold Price / Card 4 1.41 12 1.81 8 1.76 4 1.75 5 2.02 4 1.92 4 1.97 6 2.27 2 2.00 32 1.99

Unfortunately, I did waste some of my time on Devils’ Playground, but…you can’t win them all, and I did turn a profit so maybe it was worth it? (it wasn’t)

Getting out of ‘Poor’ Specs

One “catch” to the #BattleOfTix standings is that they use Cardhoarder buylist prices to determine standings. That’s fine for the majority of cards as Cardhoarder certainly has competitive buy prices. However…some of my spec choices happened to be things Cardhoarder’s bots don’t want to buy, which led to several weeks of underestimation of my Portfolio Value. Things like Whisperwood Elemental and some Modern commons/uncommons would drag down my portfolio’s apparent value simply due to the metric we are using to calculate value. I got out of several cards like this at good buy prices and that really helped the apparent value of my portfolio.

Speaking of Whisperwood Elemental, I had the right idea, but poor timing. I was excited to start #BattleofTix, so I picked up 103 copies over the course of just 16 hours, starting on the second day of the competition (4/2/16). They then almost immediately halved in value, which I probably should have seen coming. At the very least, I should have utilized Dollar-cost averaging and not ‘bought in’ all at once. After a few weeks at that low, Whisperwood did recover (and gain a bit), allowing me to make a, albeit meger, 4.34 tix net profit. If I had not been so excited to start #BattleOfTix and waited for the price to fall, then I could have certainly made out better.

I Told You So*

If you look back at my Week 3 article, I pointed out that some cards on MTGO are extremely cyclical, peoridically spiking and then falling back down. I listed several cards I had spec’d in, one being Utopia Sprawl. At that point I had already bought into and sold out of Utopia Sprawl to make just 1.5 tix. Well, Utopia Sprawl plummeted again and I bought in to the tune of 29 copies at 0.39 tix each. Lo and behold it spiked again to > 1 tix and I’ve gotten out at an average price of 0.97 tix each, a net profit of 16.8 tix…not bad for a common.

*Said with tongue firmly planted in cheek

On Not Losing Money

Sometimes you make questionable (read: bad) specs. Maybe you were excited or were lacking a key piece of information (incoming reprint, metagame shift, etc). As I have detailed previously, I’m using this opportunity on #BattleOfTix to learn how to A) take more risks and B) spec in standard cards. In pursuit of these goals, I occasionally forewent logic and reason and bought into cards I wasn’t actually confident would pan out, with the excuse that it would “help me learn to take risks.” Examples include, but are not limited to:

The most egregious are likely Always Watching (hovering ~0.4 tix) and Counterbalance (dropped to ~7 tix). Just the two of those represent 30 tix in losses…assuming I had sold out when the cards lost value. Sometimes you need to swallow your Pride and admit defeat as a card loses value, selling out to prevent further losses. However, that decision should only be made if you believe the card will continue to lose a significant amount (so that you can buy in at that much lower amount). However, if you believe the card will eventually rally (or you missed selling before the price bottomed out), then the correct strategy is often to go deeper! And, that’s exactly what I did for each of these cards.

Name Set # Additional Buys Price / Card New Total # New Avg Cost Avg Price Sold Profit Anguished Unmaking SOI 11 0.77 19 1.09 1.18 1.73 Always Watching SOI 25 0.34 29 0.53 0.58 4.42 Counterbalance CSP 4 7.75 12 8.90 9.27 1.61 Bygone Bishop SOI 29 0.04 40 0.14 HOLDING Falkenrath Gorger SOI 6 0.08 26 0.27 HOLDING

In each of these cases, my spec seemed like it was failing, as the price went down significantly. Instead of outing for a loss, I bought into more copies at this low price point and waited for a recovery. Each time, I sold for less than I what I paid for the initial specs, but I still came out ahead thanks to the additional copies I bought when prices fell. The lesson here is to not get discouraged when it seems like your spec is not working out. In theory, you made a logical and informed decision when you made your initial spec and you believed the price could rise from there. Thus, when prices decrease, rather than being disappointed that you are losing money, it can be seen as an opportunity to buy in at a much lower price. Sure, on paper it looks like I didn’t make a ton of profit by going deeper on these specs, but I’ll take a small profit over a loss any day.

All of this, of course, comes with the caveat that a decrease in price isn’t tied to some event that will cause the cards price to never rebound (massive reprint, banning, something of that sort). If it is just market or metagame fluctuation, it can be profitable to continue to buy and wait until the tide shifts back in your favor.

Current Profits and Portfolio

To increase transparency, I’m going to post all of my closed positions and a pic of my current portfolio. This week, I got lucky with The Rack and Inkmoth Nexus and closed out the Utopia Sprawls I mentioned above. As for purchases, I’ve picked up some Modern targets in preparation for the Modern Grand Prixs this weekend: Orzhov Pontiff, Chord of Calling, Knight of the Reliquary, Huntmaster of the Fells, Proclamation of Rebirth, and Faith’s Reward. This might also be the week Remand finally breaks out so that I can sell the copies I bought in April.

Here’s some data (EDITOR'S NOTE: "Some"):

Date Opened Card Name Set Avg Price Bought # Bought Avg Price Sold Profit Date Closed 4/1/2016 Journey to Nowhere ZEN 0.16 20 0.23 1.39 4/3/2016 4/4/2016 Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas MBS 14.29 1 23.44 9.15 4/4/2016 Week 1 Profit 10.54 4/2/2016 Golgari Grave-Troll RAV 4.74 2 6.13 2.78 4/9/2016 4/3/2016 Caves of Koilos ORI 1.82 4 2.24 1.66 4/9/2016 4/1/2016 Lightning Helix RAV 0.06 28 0.44 10.59 4/10/2016 4/1/2016 Worldspine Wurm RTR 2.25 16 2.26 0.18 4/11/2016 4/1/2016 Primeval Titan MM2 6.76 3 6.81 0.15 4/11/2016 4/1/2016 Purphoros, God of the Forge THS 1.38 17 1.63 4.18 4/12/2016 4/3/2016 Sylvan Advocate OGW 2.39 4 3.06 2.69 4/12/2016 4/1/2016 Glimpse of Nature CHK 1.96 8 2.51 4.37 4/13/2016 Week 2 Profit 26.60 4/3/2016 Kytheon, Hero of Akros ORI 3.87 4 6.71 11.36 4/14/2016 4/1/2016 Remand RAV 1.52 12 1.60 0.95 4/16/2016 4/1/2016 Heliod, God of the Sun THS 0.48 8 0.42 -0.50 4/16/2016 4/2/2016 Life from the Loam RAV 4.29 15 4.32 0.46 4/16/2016 4/8/2016 Utopia Sprawl DIS 0.57 12 0.70 1.59 4/16/2016 Week 3 Profit 13.859 4/1/2016 Shattering Spree GPT 0.41 9 0.53 1.15 4/22/2016 4/3/2016 Llanowar Wastes ORI 1.17 8 2.11 7.52 4/22/2016 4/4/2016 Anafenza, the Foremost KTK 1.99 4 3.01 4.08 4/22/2016 4/3/2016 Hallowed Moonlight ORI 0.26 18 1.13 15.68 4/23/2016 4/20/2016 Oath of Nissa OGW 1.18 4 1.47 1.14 4/23/2016 4/21/2016 Drownyard Temple SOI 0.60 14 0.81 2.99 4/23/2016 4/23/2016 Cryptolith Rite SOI 3.73 6 4.94 7.23 4/23/2016 4/23/2016 Hissing Quagmire OGW 2.66 8 2.97 2.53 4/23/2016 4/23/2016 Dromoka's Command DTK 4.74 4 5.38 2.57 4/23/2016 4/23/2016 Archangel Avacyn SOI 19.54 4 21.42 7.54 4/23/2016 Week 4 Profit 52.422 4/1/2016 Glimpse the Unthinkable RAV 3.89 8 4.36 3.76 4/29/2016 4/3/2016 Evolutionary Leap ORI 0.29 20 0.62 6.63 4/29/2016 4/5/2016 Spell Snare DIS 2.10 6 2.04 -0.37 5/1/2016 4/20/2016 Anguished Unmaking SOI 1.09 19 1.18 1.73 5/1/2016 5/1/2016 Eldrazi Displacer OGW 2.24 10 2.49 2.57 5/1/2016 4/1/2016 Xenagos, the Reveler THS 0.95 52 0.81 -7.06 5/2/2016 4/20/2016 Pia and Kiran Nalaar ORI 0.98 8 1.17 1.52 5/3/2016 4/20/2016 Vryn Wingmare ORI 0.06 16 0.30 3.77 5/3/2016 Week 5 Profit 12.5517 4/29/2016 Descend Upon the Sinful SOI 0.50 22 0.70 4.46 5/5/2016 4/30/2016 Atarka's Command DTK 3.95 10 4.73 7.83 5/6/2016 4/29/2016 Searing Blaze WWK 0.23 8 0.57 2.76 5/7/2016 5/8/2016 Eldrazi Displacer OGW 2.77 7 3.64 6.09 5/8/2016 5/8/2016 Cryptolith Rite SOI 0.83 3 1.21 1.15 5/8/2016 4/2/2016 Whisperwood Elemental FRF 0.23 103 0.27 4.34 5/10/2016 4/20/2016 Oath of Chandra OGW 0.01 8 0.03 0.14 5/10/2016 4/29/2016 Lightning Bolt M11 0.06 16 0.31 4.06 5/10/2016 5/6/2016 Startled Awake SOI 0.53 24 0.89 8.54 5/10/2016 5/7/2016 Descent of the Dragons DTK 0.67 81 1.92 101.16 5/10/2016 5/7/2016 Pyromancer's Goggles ORI 3.70 4 6.83 12.51 5/10/2016 5/7/2016 Devils' Playground SOI 0.01 49 0.02 0.54 5/10/2016 5/8/2016 Slippery Bogle EVE 0.88 11 1.30 4.67 5/10/2016 Week 6 Profit 158.2637 5/3/2016 Sidisi, Undead Vizier DTK 0.13 4 0.30 0.69 5/11/2016 4/11/2016 Counterbalance CSP 8.90 12 9.27 4.42 5/14/2016 4/30/2016 Wingmate Roc KTK 0.65 7 1.06 2.87 5/14/2016 5/13/2016 Abrupt Decay RTR 3.91 8 4.81 7.20 5/14/2016 4/20/2016 Always Watching SOI 0.53 29 0.58 1.61 5/15/2016 4/23/2016 Utopia Sprawl DIS 0.39 29 0.97 16.79 5/15/2016 5/11/2016 The Rack TSB 4.99 7 6.46 10.28 5/15/2016 5/15/2016 Steel Overseer M11 3.62 4 3.93 1.24 5/15/2016 5/15/2016 Inkmoth Nexus MBS 16.73 4 21.05 17.28 5/15/2016 4/1/2016 Torpor Orb NPH 3.06 8 3.41 2.79 5/16/2016 Week 7 Profit 65.1842 Total 339.42

Part 2 - Portfolio Managing Spreadsheet

Here’s where I start a series on spreadsheet based tools. At the moment I’m going to focus on Google Sheets, which all #BattleOfTix competitors are using to keep track of our portfolio, because it is free and works on all platforms. However, many of the things I’ll go over can also be done with Microsoft Excel, it just involves a slightly different execution.

For starters, here is this week’s Google Sheets document. It’s view only. To use it, go to File -> Make a Copy. That’ll put an editable copy on your own Google Drive account that you can use (and follow along with).

I also recorded a video so that you can see the spreadsheet in action, for when the following text fails to fully describe any of the features. I attempted to keep both the video and this section short, so that we can build upon it with time.

This initial spreadsheet is simply about tracking your buys/sells. Over the course of the series, I’ll iterate and add features. The spreadsheet has three separate sheets for you to use as well as a hidden data sheet.

Transaction Log: You input transactions into this sheet. It can keep track of your bank roll and the credit you have on each and every bot, if you so choose.

Current Portfolio: Equations in this sheet pull from the transaction log sheet and populate a list of your current specs, taking all purchases and sales into account. It tracks your total and current investment into a spec as well as providing some links to MTGGoldfish and MLBots to quickly allow you to check prices (MLBots links require you to manually enter the cards collector number at this time).

Closed Positions: When a card’s quantity reaches zero (i.e. you sold all you’ve bought), data for that spec is removed from the transaction log and instead populated in the closed positions log.

Data1: This is a hidden sheet that you shouldn’t need to edit; it’s just an intermediate in assembling the databases within the other sheets. The only intervention would be if you speculated in 400 different cards. I only filled in equations to row 400. So, if you go past that, you’ll just need to go into this sheet and copy the formula to additional cells.

Tracking your transaction is critical for success. It’s difficult to remember how much you paid for every spec. And, if you don’t know how much you paid for it, how will you know if (or how much) profit you made?

The other important aspect of having a spreadsheet to act as a data repository for any info you need to keep. Easy examples would be target buy or sell prices that you’ve decided. Those should be written down so that you can quickly reference them rather than having to go through your decision making process and re-derive these values. Later parts in this series will go into conditional formatting and vlookup commands to aid in quickly assessing if you’ve met any of your metrics (such as target sell price).

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions (particularly about features you’d like in a spreadsheet), I can be contacted via reddit, Twitter (@MTGKaioshin), or email (MTGKaioshin at gmail dot com)