Support for the Conservatives is on the rise among Indians

As campaigning gathers pace for Britain’s snap general election, with many polls suggesting a comfortable lead for the Conservative Party, the question remains how Britain’s Indian community will vote. The 1.5 million people within the diaspora constitute a sizeable chunk of the electorate, particularly in areas such as Leicester, or London neighbourhoods such as Southall.

Britain’s Indian community has traditionally voted Labour, though there has been a shift over the decades. “The older generations had very strong links with local Labour parties and there was community voting... Now it’s a mixture of younger generations being assimilated as Asian British and less likely to follow the lead of their parents…and fewer community bonds,” says Dr. Stephen Fisher, professor of political sociology and an expert on political behaviour at Oxford University.

The modernisation of the Conservative Party and concerted efforts by to woo the Indian vote have contributed to the change.

There was a shift at the last general election towards the Conservatives, though this has often been overstated. Research conducted by Dr. Nicole Martin, senior policy research officer at Essex University in the run-up to the 2015 general election, put Indian support for Labour at 69%, against 24% for the Conservatives. This was against 60% support for Labour within the Pakistani community and and 85% within the Bangladeshi community.

“All three groups were still Labour majority even if the Conservatives went up, particularly among Indian voters. My research suggests that the Conservative vote only went up among Hindus, not other Indian heritage voters,” says Dr. Martin.

Complicating the situation will be the outcome of the Brexit referendum last year. While there were efforts by the Leave campaign to woo the Asian voters with promises of being able to go soft on non-EU immigrants once Britain was out of the EU, the results suggest this had only limited impact, and Indians voted clearly to remain.

Not a Brexit vote

British Election Survey data analysed by Professor Fisher for The Hindu found that the vote for Remain was 59% among those of Indian heritage, 72% for those of Pakistani heritage, against 48% for the population as a whole.

“This election has been called because of the referendum but it won’t necessarily be a Brexit election — people will make up their minds about the basis on which they will vote for the parties... It may be that the traditional pattern within the South Asian community to vote for Labor will carry on as usual.”

While the Liberal Democrats have positioned themselves as the only party opposing a hard Brexit (Labour voted in favour of the government’s Brexit authorising legislation and won’t commit to single market membership), they have in the past had limited pull within the South Asian community. The exception was after the Iraq war when some, particularly within the Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities, shifted to them, as Labour and Conservatives adopted a pro-war position, says Dr. Maria Sobolewska, a senior lecturer at Manchester University.

There are many other factors that will come into play, such as current consultation on the introduction of anti-caste legislation, which was used by some groups in 2015 to push Hindus in particular to support the Conservatives. The Labour Party’s shift to the left, and the appeal of leader Jeremy Corbyn will also come into play, as will the extent to which members of the community, particularly younger people, will be motivated to vote, says Dr. Martin.