Donald Trump took 25 percent of support, followed by 23 percent who opted for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. | AP Photo Cruz surges in Iowa ‘It’s game time,’ a spokeswoman for the Texas senator says after a new poll shows him deadlocked with Trump.

Ted Cruz, buoyed by tea party support and the backing of much of the conservative wing of the Republican Party, has surged to a virtual tie with Donald Trump in Iowa, generating the kind of momentum his team thinks will carry him deep into primary season.

“Sixty-eight days until Iowa,” said Cruz spokeswoman Catherine Frazier, when asked whether the Texas senator was peaking too soon. “It’s game time.”


A Quinnipiac University survey released Tuesday found Cruz essentially deadlocked with longtime poll-leader Trump in Iowa: Trump stood at 25 percent and Cruz at 23 percent, within the margin of error. That’s more than double Cruz’s standing in the Oct. 22 Quinnipiac poll and it follows a Sunday survey, released by CBS and YouGov, that also placed Cruz in second place in Iowa, at 21 percent, trailing Trump but beating previous Iowa leader Ben Carson.

Cruz’s team was counting on this.

For months, their candidate lagged both Trump and Carson, in Iowa and nationally. Carson was cutting into Cruz’s base of evangelical support while Trump locked down some of the same tea party activists who had previously made Cruz a national star. But Cruz stuck close to his script, refusing to criticize the candidates who were luring away his natural base while people close to his campaign insisted he had plenty of time to move numbers before needing to go on offense.

So instead, he stayed under the radar all summer, organizing in the early states and in those that vote in March, and focusing on fundraising, announcing last month that he had more cash on hand than any other GOP candidate. Now, his campaign is boasting one of the most robust operations in the country, with more than 100,000 volunteers nationwide and 2,500 in Iowa. He’s also organized in every county in the first four voting states.

That level of organization has convinced leading conservatives that Cruz’s campaign can keep up with his rising numbers, and that he is not a flash-in-the-pan candidate in a cycle that has already seen a number of boom-and-bust contenders, including Scott Walker.

“Ted is making all the right moves,” said Tony Perkins, one of the most influential evangelical leaders in the country, who is currently unaligned but is weighing an endorsement. “He’s moving in the right direction, working hard to galvanize that support. One of the things he’s doing that I think is extremely important is, he’s building a campaign machine that can go the distance.”

Plus, in the past few weeks, after praised debate performances and some important conservative endorsements, the new polls have further reflected the growing sense among prominent Republicans that Cruz is likely to be around for the long haul.

That change has taken place in part thanks to Carson, who in the wake of the terrorist attacks in Paris has struggled to articulate a coherent foreign policy vision while Cruz sought to play up commander-in-chief credentials. Carson’s supporters have begun to shift to Cruz, with the CBS/YouGov poll finding that “Cruz's move has come directly at the expense of Carson, as nearly one-quarter of his voters switched.”

“We do know these folks are evangelical, there aren’t a lot of other options in the field to go with, which would suggest the support for Cruz is going to stick, though you never know,” said Patrick Murray, director of Monmouth University’s Polling Institute. “These numbers are small right now, but it’s been happening in every poll. That’s where we see the trends.”

He went on to add that Cruz has “definitely not” peaked. “This is still happening. We’re still in the midst of this,” he said.

Matt Schultz, Cruz’s Iowa chairman, said the poll numbers Tuesday position Cruz to build more headed into the new year, when voters make serious commitments to candidates ahead of the Feb. 1 caucuses.

“I think there’s still a lot of room for us to grow,” said Schultz, a former Iowa secretary of state. “I’m excited about where we are right now ... we have momentum, we’re steadily building. I think it’s a positive sign going into January.”

But being able to demonstrate strength by December, as Cruz is doing, is also an important part of the effort to secure state and national endorsements. Groups of leading conservatives have for months been meeting to decide whether there is a conservative candidate around whom they can coalesce, and to have the most impact, endorsements from key leaders are likely to come well before the caucuses, as soon as next month or even late this month.

“We have to win,” Perkins said, stressing that he is still undecided about whether, and whom, to endorse. “This isn’t about just a good showing. This is about winning.”

Bob Vander Plaats, a leading Iowa social conservative who hosted seven presidential candidates at a forum last week, is also expected to make an endorsement around Thanksgiving or soon after — and is thought to be examining which candidates demonstrate staying power. Cruz, with movement in the polls as well as organization and money, is thought to be the favorite for that nod.

Cruz already is benefiting from the support of Rep. Steve King, an influential Iowa conservative who came out in support of him last week, as well as from Iowa radio host Steve Deace, who is influential with evangelical voters.

“I would say, from this distance today, with the endorsement of Steve King, Steve Deace and other Iowa evangelical leaders, [Cruz] looks very formidable on Feb. 1,” said David Lane, a prominent Christian conservative who is unaligned and has hosted many of the presidential candidates at conservative gatherings and meet-and-greets with pastors.

One challenge, though, is Trump: He has consistently led Cruz, and everyone else, in the polls for months. And as Cruz has risen, so too has fellow Sen. Marco Rubio, who has been seeking to raise questions about Cruz's national security credentials and is ramping up his efforts in Iowa.

Cruz’s campaign still sees a path that puts its candidate ahead, though. According to his team, even if Trump or another candidate wins Iowa or another early state, Cruz is in a strong enough position to stay in the race into March, when a string of conservative and religious states get a chance to vote.

Doug Gross, a seasoned Iowa Republican who is not tied to any candidate — and is no fan of Cruz’s — said he expects Trump will fade at least some before the caucuses, and that Cruz will benefit well before March 1.

“Once people start to have second thoughts, to the extent they do, about Trump, those … tea party Republicans will start gravitating toward Cruz,” he said, noticing that that dynamic has already played out among home schoolers and evangelicals who were initially for Carson but are now drifting Cruz’s way.

“I think he’s got staying power,” Gross said. “I expect him to win Iowa.”

Nick Gass contributed to this report.