Warriors in four.

First off, Mike Conley's face is broken, and that's obviously terrible for Memphis. Even if the guard were healthy, though, I'd probably pick Golden State in four games in this Western Conference semifinals matchup. Such conviction is a fantastic setup for me looking even dumber than usual.

I played up how much trouble the Pelicans were for the Warriors, and Golden State ended up sweeping. Perhaps the opposite will happen this time around and the Grizzlies will overperform the prediction.

My self-centered superstitions aside, I just don't see this series going well for the Grizzlies. The main arguments in their favor rest on descriptors like heart, experience, pride, grit and grind. To be sure, these factors could matter. I'm just not certain how to extricate the real from the mythology when we talk in sports clichés.

On the Grizzlies' upside, they have a great defense -- fourth-ranked overall. There's an issue, though. The Warriors aren't just really good -- they're also really weird. Their two primary scorers convert inefficient shots (pullup 3s) at efficient rates. This goofy-foots defenses designed under the premise that such players don't exist. It's quite possible to have a great defense that somehow isn't set up to stop Golden State's particular kind of attack. In the case of Memphis, I believe it's probable.

The Grizzlies have a defense based on thwarting drives and walling off the paint. They ceded the third-fewest shots inside 5 feet and augment that success by rarely fouling. The Warriors are 23rd in total drives (not pace-adjusted) and 26th in free throws taken (pace-adjusted). They've managed to produce the second-ranked offense without barreling toward the hoop in search of contact.

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The Grizzlies and their burly bigs compose a stingy post-up defense, third-ranked overall, according to Synergy Sports. The Warriors don't really bother posting up unless it's the occasional Andrew Bogut hook-shot allowance. While Memphis has certain defensive qualities that translate to any situation (Marc Gasol, Tony Allen, shared chemistry), much of what makes it a successful defense isn't applicable to the team it's facing.

The Grizzlies' defensive weaknesses can, however, hurt them in this series. The first thing I look for in a Warriors opponent is how well they guard the 3-point line. Memphis was mediocre at it this season (12th-most 3-point shots allowed, pace-adjusted). The second thing I look for is transition defense, as Golden State plays the fastest pace and boasts the most efficient transition attack. According to Synergy, the Grizzlies ranked 16th in transition defense. While that size helps Memphis wall off would-be drivers, it's less help in a full-court track meet.

That brings me to Zach Randolph, who might have more trouble in this series than expected. Old-school basketball minds (well, Charles Barkley, mostly) would look for Z-Bo to dominate Golden State's front line, specifically Draymond Green. He might even have some offensive success when matched up against the smaller Green.

The issue for the Grizzlies, though, is how much the Warriors can punish Randolph on defense. The most recent time these teams faced off, Golden State exploited Randolph in 1-4 (with Curry and Green) pick-and-rolls, and Golden State won in a blowout. It was an echo of last season's final game between these two teams, when Golden State closed out their first win in forever against Memphis by running Curry repeatedly at Randolph.

Z-Bo has deft hands and deft feet, but coordination isn't quickness. Sluggishness on the arc against Curry is death. There's also the matter of Green's evolution this season into a one-man fast break. That, too, presents a problem for the plodding Randolph. He can't just be a bully. He also has to moonlight as a distance runner.

If you're leaning on something, anything, to bolster a case for Memphis in this series, you might look to historical track record. The Grizzlies had won 11 in a row against the Warriors until March 29, 2014.

Bogut has some thoughts on why that precedent might be misleading, though: "The offense changed this year. Last couple years, we ran a lot of isolation stuff and that plays right into Memphis' hands. You keep the ball on one split line of the court and try to iso and that's what they're all about.

"When you swing the ball side to side, and get their guys in pick-and-rolls, move the ball, I think it's a bit more tough to guard."

I would tend to agree with Bogut on this. The Warriors' new offense doesn't provide the Grizzlies a target to load up against. They move the ball side to side, like the San Antonio attack that's bedeviled Memphis in the recent past.

Unfortunately for the Warriors, my prediction doesn't automatically decide a series like a computer game simulation. Games still have to be played -- games that could surprise us. Fortunately for the Warriors, they aren't playing a team that specializes in taking away the things they do well -- yet.