Eight of the 2012 GOP contenders are set to take the debate stage again. | John Shinkle/POLITICO 6 things to watch in Monday's debate

Just five days after they met in Simi Valley, Calif., eight of the 2012 GOP presidential contenders are set to take the debate stage again Monday and pick up where they left off—with a vigorous discussion about Social Security.

The event, sponsored by CNN and the group Tea Party Express, will take place in Florida, a state that serves as a crucial battleground in both the primary and the general election. And that senior-heavy locale only heightens the stakes for the expected battle, which is likely to expand beyond last week’s two-man fight between Mitt Romney and Rick Perry.


“I don’t think Romney is going to take his foot off the gas, especially in Florida, on Social Security,” said veteran Republican strategist Tony Fabrizio. “In fact, we may see him trot out something else…[and] Perry’s trying to prove that he’s not like the rest of these guys. He’ll upset the apple cart and he’s not afraid to upset the apple cart because that’s what’s needed right now.”

While the debate, which starts at 8 p.m., will be televised to a national audience, don’t be surprised to see the candidates work the Florida angle. The state is poised to play a decisive role in the GOP primary and in 10 days the focus will return to Florida.

“This is the warm-up for the very important P-5 debate and straw poll on Sept. 22,” said Florida-based media strategist Rick Wilson, referring to the state’s “Presidency 5” event.

Here are six things to watch for Monday night:

What kind of weapons will Rick Perry bring to the fight?

Perry was ready to attack Romney’s record on jobs from the opening moments of the Sept. 7 POLITICO/NBC News debate, arguing within the first 10 minutes that Texas created more jobs in the past three months than Massachusetts created during Romney’s entire term, and that Romney’s jobs record was worse than that of Michael Dukakis.

The battle lines between the GOP front-runners have changed since then. Job creation is not the only flash point anymore; Social Security is another key area of conflict. The Texas governor has a choice to make: keep hammering Romney on jobs or broaden the scope of his criticism.

If Perry pursues the second option, he has numerous avenues to choose from. Romney’s inconsistent record on social issues has barely come up so far this year — Perry could change that. He’s only taken gentle swipes at Romney’s record at Bain Capital. The Texas governor could get much more aggressive on that, too.

Perry may try to repel Romney’s hits on Social Security by pointing out that Romney once said that a banker who managed a company’s finances like Social Security “would go to jail.” But that’s a defensive line that forces Perry to fight on ground that the former Massachusetts governor has already chosen.

Perry was widely seen as starting strong but flagging in the second half of last week’s face-off. He’ll have to show he has the stamina for the full event, and will need some polish on some of his less lustrous answers, like on climate change and a path forward for Social Security.

Will Mitt Romney come prepared with fresh material from “Fed Up!”?

Romney was loaded for bear at the last debate, more than holding his own and volleying repeatedly with Perry.

He was armed with specifics from Perry’s states-rights tome “Fed Up!,” which provided him with what his team clearly feels is Perry’s most damaging language about Social Security — that the federal program has been, by any measure, “a failure.”

It is likely Romney will come to the stage with other highlights from the book — perhaps some of the edgier ones, like Perry’s description of the Department of Homeland Security, created in the immediate aftermath of Sept. 11, 2001, as the result of an “unprincipled” congressional vote.

But Perry isn’t the only one with a book that could leave him exposed. How will Romney respond if the moderators or another candidate onstage highlight his own less-than-flattering comments about Social Security in his book, “No Apology”?

“All eyes will be watching the manner in which GOP candidates tackle the issue of Social Security — and walk the fine line of support while not defending the status quo,” said Republican strategist Scott Reed.

Does Michele Bachmann take aim at Perry?

Bachmann, who has essentially disappeared in the media narrative as the race has increasingly been treated as a two-candidate race, badly needed a breakout moment in last week’s debate. She didn’t have one.

“You may see Bachmann be a little more aggressive,” predicted Fabrizio.

Sure enough, the Minnesota congresswoman’s aides are already making clear in explicit terms that she’s planning to knock Perry over his Social Security remarks as she scrambles to swing Tea Party voters away from him.

“Michele looks forward to the opportunity to explain the sharp contrast between her view of Social Security and that of Gov. Perry,” Bachmann spokeswoman Alice Stewart told POLITICO. “Michele believes Social Security is an important safety net for Americans who have paid into the program all their lives and the federal government should keep its promise to seniors. She believes it’s wrong for a candidate to make seniors worry about the safety net they are entitled to.”

It seems likely that the candidates will be asked about Perry’s Social Security remarks from last week’s debate. If they don’t, Bachmann needs to be ready to take her shot when an opening presents itself — and to land it with maximum effect.

Can Jon Huntsman build on his last performance?

It took long enough, but Jon Huntsman is finally making good on his campaign’s promise to get aggressive in the GOP primary. Sort of.

In last week’s debate, the former Utah governor told Romney to his face what Huntsman’s been saying in veiled terms on the campaign trail.

“Forty-seven just ain’t going to cut it, my friend, not when you can be first,” Huntsman zinged, referring to Massachusetts being 47th in the nation in job creation under Romney, while Utah was first under him.

For most of the rest of the debate, though, Huntsman was as restrained and mild-mannered as ever. Struggling to gain traction in the polls, he created no memorable moment in Simi Valley that’s likely to have resonated in conservative hearts and minds.

Like the other lagging candidates, Huntsman’s challenge in Tampa will be to avoid being a spectator to the Romney-Perry bout. To accomplish that, he’ll have to do more than just hold up his jobs record and compare it with Romney’s — Perry’s already doing that, and he has a lot more juice on the right than Huntsman.

Who will Rick Santorum be gunning for?

Count on one thing: Rick Santorum will take a swing at one of his opponents Monday night.

At the August debate in Iowa, the former Pennsylvania senator got into a veritable shouting match with Ron Paul over national security. Last week at the Reagan Library, Santorum delivered a cutting attack on Perry’s record on the HPV vaccine.

Exchanges like these have raised Santorum’s profile in the race, though they haven’t lifted his poll numbers. They’ve also made Santorum a bellwether for where the fight will turn next.

If the long-shot conservative comes out with fists flying against Perry — and no one else — it’ll help confirm that the Texan remains the dominant force in the race. If Santorum takes aim at Romney, too, it’ll feed the impression that the race is more fluid.

In any case, Santorum will be expected to defend his title as the anti-Newt Gingrich: the candidate on stage who never whines when he’s drawn into a fight.

Does Perry feed the Perry vs. Paul narrative?

The two Texans, the governor and the congressman, had some of the roughest exchanges during last week’s debate on screen — and off-screen as well, judging from a series of photos that emerged a day later of the governor standing by Paul’s podium, wagging a finger in the congressman’s face and gripping his wrist.

A Perry aide said they were talking about border security. Paul said he didn’t remember the content of the conversation. Neither explanation seems totally convincing from a pair that never actually met before last week.

Regardless, there is clearly no love lost between Perry and Paul.

Paul, who has struggled for mainstream traction, has much to gain by confronting Perry. Perry, on the other hand, doesn’t — but given the Texas governor’s take-no-prisoners style, it is distinctly possible that the two will mix it up again.