Voting stickers | Aaron P. Bernstein/Getty Images How California's wave of uncounted ballots could swing results

OAKLAND — Super Tuesday polls have long since closed, but a coming wave of uncounted ballots is poised to reshape California results from the presidential contest through legislative races.

America’s most populous state has sought to augment turnout by dramatically expanding the number of mail ballots to more than 16 million, allowing Election Day voter registration and accepting ballots that arrive up to three days after Election Day.


That means that there are likely millions of votes left to be tallied. While history suggests the late-arriving ballots will skew left, the fact that many Democratic primary voters may have waited to vote until the last possible moment in a fluid presidential primary injects extra uncertainty.

An energized Democratic electorate and soaring registration numbers were expected to boost turnout. If about half of the registered electorate voted — a figure that would represent a few points’ increase over the less-relevant 2016 primary — that means roughly five million ballots are still unaccounted for, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data, Inc. Mitchell predicted that would benefit Democratic candidates.

“We know that ballots counted later always advantage progressives — more Democratic, more younger voters, more minority voters,” Mitchell said.

Counting all of those ballots could take weeks, and the 2018 midterms demonstrate how that accounting is likely to buoy Democrats.

On the evening of Nov. 6, 2018, multiple Democratic House candidates were running behind their Republican rivals. They would eventually overtake their opponents on the strength of late ballots, leading to reversals like former Rep. David Valadao prematurely declaring victory and then weeks later conceding to now-Rep. T.J. Cox.

But there’s an additional wrinkle this year: an unknown number of Democratic primary voters who waited for more clarity in a fractured presidential field before voting. The field swiftly consolidated in the 72 hours before California voted, with the Democratic establishment closing ranks behind former Vice President Joe Biden. That late movement could show up in California ballots.

“They waited and they held onto their ballot,” said Los Angeles County Democratic Party Executive Director Mark Gonzalez, adding that last-minute decisions could be “key to our down-ballot votes.”

It will likely take weeks to know the exact allocation of presidential delegates, which are allocated proportionally to candidates who get at least 15 percent of the statewide vote and at least 15 percent in each of California’s 53 House districts. The California Democratic Party will wait for the secretary of state’s office to certify county results, which does not have to happen until early April.

In the meantime, numerous undecided races for the state Legislature hinge on those outstanding ballots. So, too, could the district attorney race in Los Angeles, where incumbent Jackie Lacey’s large but shrinking lead could presage a runoff against progressive challenger and former San Francisco District Attorney George Gascón.

Supporters of a $15 billion statewide school facilities bond are also pinning their hopes on late ballots. The measure was trailing by a wide margin on Wednesday, but campaign spokesperson Dan Newman projected optimism about that gap closing.

“There are literally millions and millions of ballots still to be counted and with every update, Prop. 13 moves closer to 50 percent,” Newman said. “We won’t know the final results for days, if not weeks, but we remain hopeful that California’s children are going to get the safer, better school buildings they need and deserve.”

Mackenzie Mays contributed to this report.