It's true that Romney positioned himself as an immigration hardliner during the 2012 primary cycle, but another way to put that is that he changed his persona on the issue at the last moment and won anyway. Nothing in the history of GOP primaries suggests supporting "beefed up enforcement + path to citizenship" in 2013 is going to hurt Rubio's prospects as primaries ramp up 2015. If Romneycare, of all things, wasn't a dealbreaker for the primary electorate of 2012, why would a failed attempt at immigration reform be a dealbreaker in 2016?

That isn't to say Rubio will win the GOP primaries, just that he has a chance.

The widespread enthusiasm he inspires among Republicans has always been a mystery to me. Is there any depth to the man? Any ability to communicate in anything other than conservative boilerplate? I haven't seen evidence of it. (At the same time, conservative boilerplate got him elected to the U.S. Senate and fawned over by figures throughout the conservative movement. Who knows what qualities he'd surprise us with if success required them?)

Here's the thing about forecasting GOP primaries: It's a mistake to proceed as if these contests unfold rationally, or as if the political analysis offered by Rich Lowry and Bill Kristol is necessarily sound.

Remember Sarah Palin? Remember how frequently Bill Kristol's predictions are wrong? *

I don't pretend to understand the parts of the conservative base that treated the former Alaska governor as a would-be savior, or elevated Herman Cain, or imagined that Michele Bachmann could seriously contend for the presidency, or dismissed Jon Huntsman, or flirted with housing-subsidy historian Newt Gingrich, or embraced Rick Santorum even as they complained about Bush-era excesses. But the skill of appealing to those voters is something Rubio has demonstrated in the past, and there's no reason to think he won't hit on a way to do it again going forward.

He's also always appealed to the GOP establishment. Immigration won't change that either. He'll don a navy-blue blazer with gold buttons, fundraise at the Balboa Bay Club, and everyone will fawn.

The 2016 election will be a crazy free-for-all. Some candidates will just be there trying out for Fox News gigs! Right now, no one can claim to know its trajectory, let alone to have a clear path to the nomination. What kind of candidate the GOP chooses will depend in part on how strong the Democrats seem. Senator Rubio nevertheless has as good a chance as anyone, or at least as good a chance as he ever did. Come debate time, he may flame out, Rick Perry style, or catch fire. For the time being, rumors of his political death are greatly exaggerated, and should be ignored.

__

* Let me remind you. Here are some forecasts Kristol made prior to Election 2008:

"This fall, the Democratic Congress will end up being more of a problem for Obama or Clinton than Bush will be for the Republican nominee."

"... The GOP has lucked into having as its nominee John McCain, one of the most popular politicians in America. What's more, conservatism as a set of ideas is in pretty good shape. 'Neoconservative' thinking on America's place in the world has beaten back attempts to revive the crabbed 'realism' of some congressional Republicans in the 1990s as a plausible approach for dealing with the world of the 21st century."

"Sarah Palin is quickly proving to be more than a match for the mad, mad media. Having foolishly started a war with her that they can't win, the liberal media would be well advised, for once, to implement their own favorite war-fighting strategy: cut and run."

"The Democratic candidates have, as Joe Lieberman said last week, 'emotionally invested in a narrative of defeat and retreat in Iraq.' They've also politically invested in such a narrative. It was a bad (and dishonorable) investment. It may well cost them the 2008 election."