Baseball Hall of Fame: Roger Clemens seeks more gains in support as last-chance ballot nears

Gabe Lacques | USA TODAY

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Roger Clemens’ ability to fight on his own behalf, to reinvent himself, to stay in the conversation and the game of baseball was always a superpower of sorts, artificially enhanced or not.

So it seems a little odd that as his window to enter baseball’s Hall of Fame narrows, he has little recourse but to hope the winds of public perception blow in his favor.

This year brings the first of three final shots at Cooperstown for he and Barry Bonds, joined at the hip since 2007 as generational players whose unprecedented feats (seven Cy Youngs for Clemens, seven MVPs for Bonds) are inextricably tied to the strongest circumstantial evidence of PED use for any superstars in the era preceding drug testing.

Clemens has gained ground in his Cooperstown quest, but it remains an uphill journey.

The case for Roger Clemens

Numerically, Clemens’ case is open-and-shut; he’s simply one of the greatest pitchers of all time. Clemens ranks third in career strikeouts (4,672) and pitcher WAR (138.7). He’s also in the top 10 in wins (ninth, 354), adjusted pitcher wins (second, 74.3) and Win Probability Added (first, 77.7), while his ERA-plus of 143 ranks 12th.

He struck out at least 230 batters in seven seasons, posted six 20-win seasons, and eight times led the American League in ERA-plus, first in 1994 and one more time in 2005. Capiche?

The case against Clemens

If rehashing well-worn statistics sounds odious, how about 13-year-old accusations involving syringes, cans of Miller Lite and utility closets in opposing clubhouses serving as steroid injection lounges?

If you’re disinclined to dive deeper into former trainer Brian McNamee’s accusations against Clemens, know that McNamee’s claims are largely viewed as credible, and resulted in Clemens' indictment on six counts of lying to Congress and obstructing justice.

A moderate reversal on the witness stand by Clemens’ teammate and friend (and current Hall ballot mate) Andy Pettitte possibly saved Clemens from a conviction. But it will take much more than that to convince fans and voters alike that Clemens’ late-‘90s career revival wasn’t significantly boosted by PED use.

The Hall’s oft-parsed “character clause” could also be exercised regarding Clemens’ relationship with country singer Mindy McCready, which began when she was 15 and Clemens 28. McCready confirmed a 2008 news report that the relationship turned intimate several years after their initial meeting. McCready committed suicide in 2013.

X-factors for Hall of Fame

Clemens and Bonds have seen gradual upticks in support, with consecutive jumps of at least eight points taking Clemens from 37.5% in 2015 to 54.1% in 2017. He was named on 59.5% of ballots in 2019, leaving a significant but not insurmountable gap to close by 2022.

Clemens is named on 74.0% of the 147 public ballots flagged by vote tracker Ryan Thibodeaux, a slight bump from the 71% of pre-ballot support in 2019. Private ballots, almost always more judicious, knocked 12% off his support last year and a similar deflation would get him over 60%, but not by much.

The combined purge of older voters and newer ones joining the electorate has clearly boosted Clemens, although that alone likely won’t get him over the top. Rather, another moderate shift in collective mindset must occur, one that convinces enough voters that Bonds and Clemens achieved (or would have achieved) Hall of Fame-worthy statistics before their well-documented ties to PEDs began.

Consensus

The Clemens-Bonds saga is unfolding as many envisioned, with both likely needing a final-year shift in sentiment and a wide-ranging outcry that two of the game’s giants belong in Cooperstown, warts and all. The Rocket will need to inch closer this year and next, keeping him in position for one last stand.