Note: If you are one to believe Trump will no longer be President in 2018 feel free to replace Pence with every mention of Trump in this piece.

Warning: This piece may seem depressing, but there are ways to fix what is to be explained below.

In 2018, Democrats must, must, must win the Senate.

There are many millions of Americans who would like to witness the falling of Trump’s presidency and the dismantling of the Republican Party. That opportunity lies in 2018. Trump will not be on the ballot, but his fascistic aide, the GOP, will be. So, you want to take down a fascist? You want to take down a healthcare hating, immigrant loathing, poverty loving party? Then Democrats must win the Senate.

When I say Democrats must win the Senate in 2018, in reality, they must win everything. They must win Senate races. They must win House races. They must win Governors races. They must win state legislature races. They must win other local and statewide races. Every level of election has its own importance to the survival of the Democratic Party. For example, in 2018, Democrats must win almost all of the Governor’s races if fair Congressional and state legislative maps are to be drawn after the 2020 census. While every election matters, this piece focuses on the importance of the Senate as I hope to illustrate a sad reality. Donald Trump could fall further into the abyss of unpopularity, and yet, his party is almost certain to retain and perhaps gain more power in the Senate.

1: Why must Democrats win the Senate in 2018?

Trump has already replaced one member on the Supreme Court. Over the next few years he could replace up to three more. Anthony Kennedy has hinted that he will retire next year. Justice Ginsburg is 84 and Justice Breyer is 79. The only way for Democrats to stop Trump from replacing them is to win the Senate. They must have control so they can delay, block, and like Republicans did, not allow the sitting President to replace anyone else on the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court is already more Conservative than it has been in a very long time. If Democrats do not win the Senate, then it will be even more Conservative for many more decades.

Repealing the Affordable Care Act is a long process, but Republicans are determined. Just because they recently failed doesn’t mean they won’t try again. Remember, their failed Senate vote lost by one. Republicans could write a terrible, but slightly less evil bill and get that one vote they need to continue the process. The only way for anyone to feel safe is for Democrats to win the Senate.

2: Every Senate seat matters.

In 2006, Democrats needed to flip six seats in order to win the Senate. Three of these six races seemed to be easy flips, but three others were toss-ups. Democrats succeeded in flipping the Senate by winning difficult races by very narrow margins in Virginia, Missouri, and Montana. In 2008, the goal for Democrats was to win 60 Senate seats so they could have a filibuster proof majority. They got what they wanted. What separated them from their 60 seat control to a far less powerful 59? Three hundred votes. Al Franken won his Senate race in Minnesota by just 300 votes. The race was so close that Franken couldn’t join the Senate for six months while he waited for court rulings and recounts. What’s the lesson? The Affordable Care Act needed 60 votes to pass in the Senate. It got 60. If Democrats don’t win Virginia in 2006, there is no ACA. If Democrats don’t win Missouri in 2006, there is no ACA. If Democrats don’t win Montana in 2006, there is no ACA. If three hundred less people vote for Franken in 2008, there is no ACA.

If Democrats ever want to pass anything in the future, they need 60 votes. Climate Change legislation must pass and Republicans have shown no desire to do anything on the issue. People say winning 60 seats again will be impossible for Democrats. I don’t care. It must be done if we want to survive. This means Democrats must not only try to win the Senate in 2018, but must try to win every single seat. Even the deep deep red ones? Yes. You can only get to 60 if you win red states.

3: Opportunity Lost

The best chance Democrats had for taking back the Senate was in 2016. They only needed to hold two seats in tossup races and if they won the Presidency they needed to flip four seats. They lost the Presidency, so they ultimately needed to flip five seats. They ended up holding their two seats but only won two (Illinois and New Hampshire) of the five seats they needed to retake the Senate. Gone were must wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida. Gone were opportunities in North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio. Yes, Republicans had the benefit of incumbency, but when you have to win the Senate, you do whatever it takes.

4: The Senate Map

Michael Moore recently seemed confident that Democrats could take back the House and the Senate in 2018. He said what many hopeful Democrats say — that we only need to win three seats in order to win the Senate. My response — what three seats are you planning on winning? In 2018, Democrats face the worst Senate map in history. They must defend five seats in deep red states that Trump won overwhelmingly, and four seats in states Trump won by a smaller margin. They must, must, must win all of these seats. If they do, that gets Democrats from 48 seats to 48 seats. Where’s the path to 51? The easiest seat for Democrats to pick off will be in Nevada. The second seat people point to is Arizona. Will Trump’s actions give Democrats a better opportunity to win Arizona? Yes, but people are way too confident. People said Democrats could win Arizona in 2016, and they didn’t. I believe Democrats can win Arizona in 2018, but many actions must be taken.

Can anyone tell me where Democrats get to 51? Mississippi, Texas, Nebraska, Wyoming? Yes, Democrats only need to flip three seats to win the Senate, but which three? There is no plan to win the third.

“Beto O’Rourke seems interesting in Texas. After all, he did outraise Ted Cruz in the last quarter of fundraising.”

O’Rourke raised two million dollars. That will get you almost nothing in a state as large and populous as Texas. Cruz will still have a high Republican registration advantage and will be perfectly fine with raising money.

“Won’t Trump’s unpopularity help Democrats.”

Sure. But enough to win?

I believe Democrats must win the Senate which means they must win in deep red states. Unfortunately, there is no plan. Democrats have shown no ability and no blueprint to win in these states. Democratic voters must be given tools and an action plan so they can help Democrats win everywhere. Democrats must win all of this list: West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, and one of this list: Utah, Texas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Mississippi, or Tennessee. The leadership of the Party needs to make this happen.

5: What about 2006?

As mentioned earlier, Democrats did quite well in 2006. In some ways, the 2018 midterms will have similar dynamics. In 2006, Republicans had a very unpopular President in the White House and in 2018 the same is true. In 2006, Republicans had to defend a very unpopular issue (Iraq War) and in 2018 Republicans will have to defend many unpopular actions they and their President have taken. So why can’t 2018 be like 2006?

Voter suppression is far more rampant now than it was in 2006. If people want to vote Democrat, but can’t, that benefits Republicans no matter how unpopular their party is. In 2006, Democrats had to flip Missouri, Montana, and Virginia to win the Senate. In 2018, they already hold those seats. Not only must they win them again, but they must win more seats in even redder states. This post is about the Senate, but let’s include gerrymandering as well. If Democrats want to win the House, they will have to overcome districts that are far more skewed in Republicans favor than they were in 2006.

6: The DNC

After their 2016 election wipeout, Democrats held a race to see who would be the new chairperson of the DNC. All of the potential candidates agreed that the Party must return to a 50 state strategy. Yet no one could explain what that meant. Yes, I know it means fighting in all 50 states. But no one would give specifics. How much money would each state get? How do you plan on raising enough money to send each state what they need? What does fighting and organizing in each state look like? How will the DNC help each state connect with local organizers and progressive groups? How do you plan on recovering the Party’s image so you can sign more people up who will volunteer with their local party? No specifics were given.

If Democrats want to win the Senate, then state parties must be given money to organize. Unfortunately, the DNC is not raising the money they need. Through June of this year they were outraised by the RNC 2:1. Republicans have also taken an edge over Democrats in small dollar donations. Earlier this year, Democrats had their worst fundraising month since 2003. While other Democratic affiliated groups are raising a lot of money, the DNC is not. Why is that important? The DNC provides money to state parties which help them organize for all elections — from school board to the Senate to the Presidency. If state parties aren’t funded, then the Party as a whole will be less connected to their base and to voters overall. A congressional candidate can raise a lot of money by making an inspiring video. But that’s only one Congressional seat. If Democrats want to win everything, then state parties must be funded.

7: The DSCC (Democratic Senate Campaign Committee)

The DSCC is responsible for electing Democrats to the Senate. They will raise a lot of money and they will spend that money in important states. These include every state Democrats currently hold and are threatened to lose, and states they deem are flippable like Nevada and Arizona. However, they will most likely not spend that money on any of the other states Democrats must win in order to win the Senate. They may send a few dollars to Texas, but enough to win? No. You see, the DSCC, like the DCCC, (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) has a history of terrible strategy.

In 2014, the DSCC spent millions trying to flip Kentucky and Georgia. Fine, I would have tried to win these seats too. However, they spent nothing on Maine, on blue state Maine. Yes, Susan Collins was a popular Republican Senator. Yes, she won easily in 2008 when Democrats were winning everywhere. But it’s still Maine. If Democrats really wanted to win Maine, the DSCC should have sent a few million dollars to the Democratic Senate candidate, Shenna Bellows, right away. If she had millions of more dollars she could have organized on a much larger degree at the beginning of her race. She also would have had more money to inform voters of Collin’s not so moderate record. If the DNC wanted to help, they also could have sent a million dollars to the state party, which not only would have helped Bellows, but also would have helped oust racist Governor Paul LePage. If Bellows and state Democrats had more money from the beginning, Bellows could have slowly chipped away at Collins, while increasing voter turnout among Democrats. What happened? The DSCC supported terrible candidates in Kentucky and Georgia who lost, all while Bellows was left to flounder. If Democrats want to win the Senate, then the DSCC must spend money, a lot of money, in Mississippi, and Nebraska, and Tennessee. But they won’t. If they won’t even try to win blue state Maine, then how can we believe they will try to win must wins in deep red states?

8: Outside Organizations

There are many organizations affiliated with the Democratic Party who desperately want to see them win. The problem? These organizations have been affiliated with the Party for so long, that they fall under the same strategic traps.

Earlier this year, The Human Rights Campaign announced that they will spend a record 26 million dollars to help elect pro equality candidates (Democrats). They intend to spend this money to help elect Representatives, Senators, Governors and others, in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. Can anyone see the problem? If Democrats win the Senate races in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, they will still not win the Senate. That means Republicans will appoint more opponents of equality to the Supreme Court and to other courts across the country.

The SEIU (Service Employees International Union) have announced plans to spend tens of millions of dollars in 2018 to help elect candidates who believe in raising the minimum wage, union access, and universal healthcare (Democrats). They plan to spend this money primarily in the Midwest and rust belt states. Yes, it is vitally important that Democrats win Senate, Governors, House, and local races in these states. But once again, if Democrats win Senate races in all of these places, they will still not make it to 51.

“What about Democratic Super-Pacs?”

What about them?

“You don’t trust that they will spend their millions of dollars registering voters, organizing locally, and increasing voter turnout for Democrats?”

No, I don’t. Super-Pacs should be spending their money as I just mentioned. They should heavily organize in communities that generally vote Democrat and in communities that should vote Democrat. They should also execute a massive voter registration plan. Will they? Given their massive failure in 2016, I don’t trust them to do anything right.

Democrats must win the Senate. If the DNC doesn’t have enough money to organize locally, if the DSCC will not give enough money to Democratic candidates in states like Tennessee, and if Democratic affiliated groups ignore these same areas, then how will Democrats win?

9: Alabama

How many Democrats in the country know that there is a Senate race going on in Alabama right now? Democrats have informed no one of this race. What happened to the 50 state strategy? Remember, every Senate seat matters. Betsy DeVos was confirmed by one vote. If Democrats had 49 seats instead of 48, someone bad would have been confirmed as Education Secretary, but it wouldn’t have been DeVos. Plus, say next year Democrats retain every seat they currently hold and win Nevada and Arizona. They will only have 50 seats. If they win those and add Alabama, they have 51. Democrats should have tried to win this seat the second Jeff Sessions was confirmed as Attorney General.

“Wouldn’t it be difficult for Democrats to win this seat?”

Of course. But when the importance of the seat is so high, you must try. Democrats should have sent the state party at least a million dollars many months ago. They also should have worked with the state party on strategies that would help with voter registration, voter persuasion, and voter turnout. In addition, the DSCC should have sent a check of a few million dollars to the candidate of their choice. Democratic Super-Pacs intent on winning in 2018 should also have involved themselves by sending millions of dollars of resources into the state to benefit the Democratic candidate. If all of these actions were taken a while ago, the Democratic candidate, Doug Jones, would possibly have been able to surprise everyone and win.

Who’s the opponent of Doug Jones? A crazy person. Yes there are many who populate the Republican Party, but Roy Moore is truly defined as a racist crazy person. Does that mean he wouldn’t win? Of course not, but it benefits the Democrat. Just looking at an Alabama Senate race, one might think Democrats can’t win. But if the Democrat can take advantage of a crazy person in addition to having millions of dollars to organize and register voters, they can win.

The argument Democrats and outside reporters have given to defend the Democrat’s strategy of ignoring the race, is that nationalizing the race will increase Republican voter turnout. Yeah, who cares? If the Democrat doesn’t have enough money to compete, then they will lose no matter what. I’m not asking Nancy Pelosi or Chuck Schumer to constantly talk about the race. I’m asking that the Party inform people that there is a race, so more people will send money to their candidate. Jon Ossoff didn’t lose his race because it was nationalized. He lost his race because he was a bad candidate with a terrible strategy. “Cut Wasteful Spending!” What does that win you? Nothing.

10: What Must Happen

1. The DNC must find strategies to raise a lot of money

2. They must send a lot of that money to state parties

3. DSCC must spend money on every toss-up Senate race and every Senate race in deep red states

4. DNC must work with outside groups to put more money and organizers on the ground in deep red states where Republicans are incumbents

5. If you want Democrats to win, tell party leadership to treat Mississippi, Tennessee, Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Texas like any other toss-up Senate race. All seats must be treated as flippable.

Summary:

1. Democrats must win the Senate

2. Trump’s unpopularity alone will not win 2018 for Democrats

3. Democrats face worst Senate map in history

4. Voter suppression will only get worse from here until election day

5. As of now, Democrats don’t have a plan to flip must win Senate seats in deep red states

6. DNC isn’t raising enough money to send, to not only deep red states, but to states overall

7. DSCC will not spend enough money trying to flip Senate seats in deep red states (other than Arizona)

8. Groups affiliated with Democratic Party are avoiding Senate races Democrats must win

Every time a member of the Trump administration leaves, people get giddy. Good, these people are terrible. Every time a new poll show’s Trump’s decreasing popularity, people get giddy. Good, Trump is terrible. Don’t let giddiness lead to overconfidence. An incompetent administration and a highly unpopular President doesn’t mean Democrats can overcome a terrible Senate map and flailing Party leadership. Many voters are enthusiastic about defeating Republicans in 2018, as they should be. However, that enthusiasm could melt into despair. The Democratic Party must develop a path to victory if they want to win next year. They must win the house, they must win Governors races, and they must, must, must take back the Senate.

One more time: Democrats must win the Senate. The only way to win the Senate is to win seats in deep red states. The Democrats are not and probably will not try to win these states. What should you do? Make them.