There are some headlines in the media today which suggest the UK faces another stormy start to winter before conditions turn cold into January, based on the latest Met Office three month outlook for contingency planners.

As we’ve discussed previously, the outlook is not like a normal weather forecast. It’s an experimental and complex outlook based on probabilities which is designed specifically for those who plan ahead for various contingencies based on possible likelihoods.

It assesses the likelihood of five different scenarios for both temperature and rainfall for the whole of the UK for the whole three months, based on the most probable prevailing weather patterns.

It’s a bit like the science-equivalent of factoring the odds on a horse race and like any horse race, it’s always possible the favourite won’t win.

This is why the outlook has to be used in the right context. So it’s useful for contingency planners, but not that useful for the public who want to know when we might see unsettled weather or which weekend looks good for an outdoor event.

What does the current outlook say?

Our latest three-month outlook suggests an increased risk of milder and wetter than average conditions for the period November-December-January based on our seasonal forecasts and those from other leading centres around the world.

It states “For November-December-January above-average UK-mean temperatures are more likely than below-average” and “Latest predictions for UK-mean precipitation favour near- or above-average rainfall for November-December-January”