Dold tries to outrun Trump in blue Illinois

With Maggie Severns, Theodoric Meyer and Kevin Robillard

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MUST TOP TRUMP — “Dold tries to outrun Trump in Clinton country,” by Campaign Pro’s Theodoric Meyer in Grayslake, Ill.: “When GOP Rep. Bob Dold ran for reelection the first time in 2012, he ran more than 8 percentage points ahead of Mitt Romney in his suburban Chicago district — and he still lost. And if Dold is to win reelection this year after reclaiming his seat in the midterms, he may have to outrun Donald Trump by more than twice that margin. ... 'Our job is to make sure people know who we are and what we stand for,’ Dold said in an interview. ‘And I think we will, as we did in the last presidential election cycle, significantly outperform’ the top of the ticket."

— "Dold isn't the only House Republican who may need to outperform Trump by double digits — and has a good shot at doing so. A Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll conducted late last month found GOP Rep. John Katko of New York with a double-digit lead over his Democratic challenger — and running 20 points ahead of Trump in his upstate district, with 53 percent of the vote compared to Trump's 33 percent. Clinton is also expected to wallop Trump in suburbs of Miami, Minneapolis, Denver, and Washington, D.C., where GOP incumbents are running hard to hold their seats.” Full story.

DEADLINE DAY — FEC REPORTS — NRCC raised $9.9 million, had $46.6 million banked at end of September: The GOP House committee also spent $28.7 million as the House battle heated up. Just over $530,000 of the NRCC's money raised came from members, led by Speaker Paul Ryan, according to its FEC report, The DCCC previously announced raising $21.1 million and having $45.5 million on hand after September. The DCCC spent $38.7 million last month.

— “Clinton campaign, allies took $80 million lead into October,” by POLITICO’s Isaac Arnsdorf: “Hillary Clinton and her allies started October leading the money race by some $80 million, cementing in its final phase the most lopsided race in modern campaign finance. The Clinton campaign finished September with $59.7 million in the bank even after unleashing an $82.6 million volley, much more than in any other month of the campaign, according to a new report filed with the Federal Election Commission. Together with her joint fundraising committee and allied super PACs, the Democratic nominee had a whopping $177.9 million to start the last full month of the campaign.” Full story.

— “Trump spending exploded in September,” by POLITICO’s Isaac Arnsdorf: “Donald Trump's presidential campaign spent more last month than in the previous four combined as the Republican nominee unleashed a late surge of ads. The campaign dropped $70.2 million in September, more than twice as much as in any other month this cycle, and entered October with $34.8 million in the bank, ... Media buys took the biggest chunk for the first time, totaling $23.2 million, the report showed. It also bore other signs of a more typical modern campaign, devoting $5 million to data and $1.7 million to polling. But ... [t]he report still featured the signatures of Trump's unconventional campaign: a whopping $20.6 million on digital ads to Giles-Parscale, the website company with no prior political experience; $5.9 million on jetting around to rallies; and $3.8 million on hats and other merchandise.” Full story.

CASH SCRAMBLE, CONTINUED — “McCarthy doles out $23 million to House Republicans,” by POLITICO’s John Bresnahan: “House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy has raised or given $23 million to GOP candidates, incumbents and campaign committees this cycle, according to the latest tally.” Full story.

— Meanwhile … Democratic challengers outraise Kirk, Burr, Heck, McCain: “GOP Sens. Mark Kirk of Illinois and Richard Burr of North Carolina and Rep. Joe Heck of Nevada were all badly outraised by their Democratic challengers in the third quarter, according to their FEC reports, though Burr and Heck retained cash advantages at the end of September. GOP Sen. John McCain also raised less than his challenger in Arizona.” Full story.

— “ Senate Majority PAC ... raised $12.5 million in September and now has $7.3 million on hand. The group said it spent a whopping $17.4 million, mostly on television ads, in the month of September. It still has millions more in ads reserved over the last three weeks of the election.” Full story.

— Feingold raises $1.6M in pre-general period: Democrat Russ Feingold raised $1.6 million in 19 days between the end of the third quarter and Wednesday, the pre-general reporting period. He didn’t release a cash on hand.

— Gray outraises Paul in Kentucky: Democrat Jim Gray significantly outraised GOP Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky in the third quarter, pulling in more than $1.8 million to Paul's $1 million, Gray's campaign announced on Thursday. But Paul still had more cash on hand on Sept. 30, with $1.8 million to Gray's $1.2 million.

GUESS WHO’S BACK — “NRSC returns to airwaves in Indiana,” by POLITICO’s Seung Min Kim: “The NRSC is going back on air next week in Indiana, a hotly contested battleground that's home to a must-win Senate seat for Republicans scrambling to hold onto their majority. After briefly going dark, the NRSC has reserved $515,000 in television spending starting Monday, a committee official said. The new spending is split between the Terre Haute and Fort Wayne markets, according to another source tracking ad buys. Democrat Evan Bayh had enjoyed a massive lead when he made a surprise move earlier this summer and entered the race against Republican Todd Young, but the margin between the two has narrowed significantly in the last three months.” Full story.

Days until the 2016 election: 18.

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Q&A — "DCCC chair: Trump is a great surrogate," by POLITICO's Henry C. Jackson in Los Angeles: "'Donald Trump is shaping this election,' the New Mexico Democrat [ Ben Ray Luján] said, and creating 'one of the most volatile' election cycles of all time, with things often changing 'not just week to week' but sometimes day-to-day or even hour to hour — 'if he’s tweeting,' Luján continued." Full story here.

FOR YOUR CALENDAR — Upcoming Senate debates, per C-SPAN: On Oct. 23 at 10 p.m. EST, Sen. Patty Murray and Republican Chris Vance will debate in Washington. On Oct. 24 at 7 p.m. EST, Sen. Pat Toomey and Democrat Katie McGinty will debate Pennsylvania. On Oct. 26 at 10 p.m. EST in a taped delay, Sen. Marco Rubio and Rep. Patrick Murphy will debate in Florida. On Oct. 27 at 8 p.m. EST, Sen. Kelly Ayotte will debate Gov. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire.

FIRST IN SCORE — Ben Stein plays teacher in new Ferris Bueller-themed Grassley ad: Ben Stein, in an homage to his famous Ferris Bueller’s Day Off scene, repeatedly calls out Patty Judge for missing state meetings and debates in a new ad. “Judge? Judge? Judge?” he asks. “Grassley?” he asks. “Here!” a voice calls out. “He’s always here,” Stein says, as a graphic reminds voters that Grassley has never missed a Senate vote. Watch the ad here.

LATE NIGHT AD-DITIONS — North Carolina: Democrat Deborah Ross turns to Donald Trump three weeks out from Election Day, for the first time putting the Republican presidential nominee in a TV spot. The ad tries to tie Trump to Sen. Richard Burr, who’s continued to support him, and takes a shot at defending her own record. “Richard Burr puts politics ahead of us. He’s exploiting victims of sexual assault to falsely attack Deborah Ross,” the ad’s narrator says. “But Burr has taken a post as a top adviser to Donald Trump,” cutting to the clip of Trump’s controversial comments to Access Hollywood. Watch the ad here.

— Indiana: The U.S.Chamber of Commerce is airing a 60-second ad set to suspenseful music that accuses Evan Bayh of being “more liberal than you would think.” The second part of the ad pivots to Young: “Todd Young, a marine fighting back against years of the Obama administration’s liberal agenda … a trusted and true voice,” a narrator says. Watch the ad here.

— FL-18: With its third ad in the district, Congressional Leadership Fund is rolling out a one-minute, 30-second and 15-second version of an ad that’s half a positive biographical spot on Republican Brian Mast and half an attack on Democrat Randy Perkins. The tagline: “One sacrificed to serve us, the other serves himself. For us, the choice is clear.” Watch the 60-second version here.

— CO-03: Congressional Leadership Fund is targeting Democrat Gail Schwartz for voting to “allow violent criminals in solitary confinement to be eligible for ‘good behavior time,’ which reduced their sentences,” the ad’s narrator says. “The disastrous effects included the early release of hardened criminals.” Watch the ad here.

— CO-06: Democrat Morgan Carroll's new ad ties Rep. Mike Coffman to Trump, including a clip from the 2005 Access Hollywood tape that showed Trump making lewd comments about sexual assault. “Mike Coffman, he said nothing,” said one person in the ad. “That’s not the kind of leadership America needs,” Carroll says. Watch the ad here.

IN YOUR MAILBOX — New American Jobs Fund launches $1.5 million mail campaign: The fund, founded by the League of Conservation Voters Victory Fund and United Steelworkers Works, is dropping nearly $1.5 million on mailers in North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania Senate races. A statement from the group said it will include two flights targeting 1.2 million household to boost Deborah Ross, Catherine Cortez Masto and Katie McGinty.

— LCV to spend against Jolly in FL-13: The League of Conservation Voters is dropping $200,000 on mailers against Republican Rep. David Jolly. The six mail pieces will hit 60,000 households, “detailing Jolly’s terrible record of attacking critical clean air and water protections,” per a statement from the group.

POLLING ALONE — Hassan leads in WMUR/UNH poll: “A new poll from WMUR and the University of New Hampshire shows Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan with a substantial lead over GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire's Senate race. The poll has Hassan with a 48 percent to 39 percent lead over the incumbent, while Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump by 15 percentage points, 48 percent to 33 percent.” Full story.

— Kennedy leads in Louisiana Senate race, The Advocate reported: “State Treasurer John Kennedy has taken a firm lead in Louisiana's crowded U.S. Senate race, according to the latest independent poll, which was released Thursday (Oct. 20). The north shore Republican has pulled ahead with 24 points, followed by Public Service Commission Foster Campbell, D-Elm Grove, at 19 percent, according to the new survey sponsored by Raycom Media and WVUE-TV. Lawyer Caroline Fayard, D-New Orleans, came in third with 12 percent. The poll indicated that U.S. Rep. Charles Boustany, R-Lafayette, who had statistically tied Kennedy in an independent survey in September, fell to 11 percent. U.S. Rep. John Fleming, R-Minden, rounded out the top candidates by polling at 10 percent.”

— “House Democrats release three more internal polls,” by Campaign Pro’s Elena Schneider: “House Democrats released three more internal polls showing challengers surging forward in GOP-held districts Thursday afternoon, where the candidates and outside groups have consistently been tying Republicans to Donald Trump in recent advertising. Two polls from the DCCC show candidates with small 1- or 2-point edges in very tight races, while a third from Democrat Jacky Rosen in Nevada shows her with a 7-point lead over her opponent.” Full story .

— Knight 46, Caforio 44 in CA-25: “An internal DCCC poll has found Democrat Bryan Caforio trailing Republican Rep. Steve Knight by 2 percentage points, in a target district where Hillary Clinton holds a 5-point advantage over Donald Trump.” Full story.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ — “Trump national political director 'steps back' from campaign,” by POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt: “Jim Murphy, Donald Trump’s national political director, is no longer playing an active role on the campaign, according to three sources briefed on the move – a troubling development for the Republican nominee coming just 19 days before the election. ‘I have not resigned but for personal reasons have had to take a step back from the campaign,’ Murphy said in a statement to POLITICO. He did not elaborate on the reasons for his departure.” Full story.

— “Michelle Obama makes play for Arizona,” by POLITICO’s Gabriel Debenedetti and Katie Glueck: “First lady Michelle Obama didn't even need to say the word ‘Arizona’ for the first 20 minutes of her rally here on Thursday to send shockwaves across the state. The very presence of Democrats' most coveted surrogate in the traditionally deep-red state was enough to send the message that Hillary Clinton is taking it seriously, and Obama's appeal to local Democrats just hours after the final debate was designed to make the stakes clear. ... Making the case that this year's race in Arizona is far closer than it was 2012, she recalled her husband's experience: He lost the state by just 280,000 votes, she reminded them.” Full story.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We have proven that we can actually be civil to each other. In fact, just before taking the dais, Hillary accidentally bumped into me and she very simply said, 'Pardon me.'" — Donald Trump, getting in a dig at the Al Smith dinner on Thursday night — which took a sharp turn soon after.

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