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BY PETER MCKENNA

GUEST OPINION

There is no mistaking that the Green Party of Prince Edward Island is generating a fair amount of media buzz these days. Media outlets such as The Globe and Mail, Maclean’s magazine and The Walrus have all been wondering about what is happening with the Greens in P.E.I.

A good many political observers are asking whether the Green party is actually for real. Are they serious contenders in the next P.E.I. provincial election— most likely slated for spring of 2019? Moreover, is it possible for the Greens to form government in P.E.I.?

The most recent Corporate Research Associates (CRA) poll released in early December showed the Green party leading the party pack with 37 per cent support — with the provincial Liberals at 36 per cent and the Progressive Conservatives at a worrisome 20 per cent.

But it’s worth highlighting here the fact that the Greens stood at roughly 25 per cent in popular support in November of 2017 (up from 10 per cent voter support in the 2015 provincial election). They have been growing in support ever since and have now seemingly plateaued or stabilized at 37 per cent.

One can’t be faulted for wondering if that is the ceiling for Green party backing in P.E.I. In other words, has the party reached its political peak? And, perhaps more important, will its support start to slowly decline as the anticipated provincial election date nears?

The governing Liberals are very nervous about the Greens and the very real prospect of a minority government scenario in 2019 (it would be the first minority situation in P.E.I. since 1890). The government has been touting its excellent economic/fiscal record at every turn and spending money on high-profile initiatives like schools and mental health programs.

The central problem, however, is that Premier Wade MacLauchlan is less popular than the party’s overall standing – he sits at a lowly 24 per cent.

These numbers — no matter what the Liberal government spin is on the economy — spells very bad news for the provincial Liberals in the spring — unless, of course, a change in party leadership takes place. And that is highly unlikely to happen.

The PC party, which is in the midst of a leadership campaign, is basically lost in the political wilderness — having gone through five party leaders in the last few years. And the current cast of five aspiring candidates, with nary a single sitting MLA among them, will do little to improve their electoral prospects.

So, what does all this mean in terms of the electoral hopes of the Island Greens? Can they capitalize on what appears to be a favourable political climate for them in P.E.I.?

The one critical asset that the Greens have going for them is their party leader, the widely-popular Peter Bevan-Baker. In that same CRA poll, he comes out on top as the preferred leader, with respondents placing him at 37 per cent (almost 15 points ahead of MacLauchlin).

There is no doubting the fact that Bevan-Baker is the most popular politician in P.E.I. right now — and has been for over a year. But can he translate his personal favourability numbers into actual electoral districts for the Greens?

While it’s true that provincial party politics in Canada these days is mostly leader-driven, it is not always the case in P.E.I. The calibre of individual party candidates matters a great deal when it comes to Islanders marking their ballots. It has had some trouble in the past enlisting attractive standard-bearers to run in the province’s 27 ridings. There is also some concern that Green party support is a mile deep (in certain areas) and an inch wide. That is, it has solid pockets of support in urban areas.

What this all means is that no one knows for sure what the spring of 2019 is likely to hold. But it is certain to be — depending on the three-party voter splits — the most competitive P.E.I. provincial election in a long time.

- Peter McKenna is professor and chair of political science at the University of Prince Edward Island