Eight-point game! It's a footy cliche that gets wheeled out every time two competitors for a finals or top-four spot face off against each other. But the evenness of this crazy season means some matches in the lead-up to September could make or break certain clubs' hopes. Which games are really important?

We've measured how each side's finals chances will be affected by each of this weekend's games, using a measure called 'swing' points that we've liberally borrowed from our ESPN colleagues at FiveThirtyEight. Swing points are quite straightforward - they measure the difference in a team's chances of making the finals based on which side wins or loses a particular game.

For example, we think the Bombers will have a 49 percent chance of making the finals if they beat Carlton this weekend, but their chance will plummet to just 13 percent if they lose. That 36 percentage point difference is the 'swing' in Essendon's finals chances based on the result of that game. But each game doesn't just affect the teams out on the field - the Bombers-Blues game also has a meaningful effect on the finals chances of the other clubs that are trying to squeeze into the eight. All up, there are 71 'swing' points on the line in that game.