SHE danced, she joked and she got to the end without the stage collapsing. Theresa May’s speech to the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham was a triumph of low expectations. After last year’s catastrophic effort was marred by a stage invader, a coughing fit and a broken backdrop, this year’s went without a presentational hitch. It was in the content that the trouble lay.

The week before, Labour had outlined a bold, if badly flawed, vision of post-Brexit Britain at its own party conference. Mrs May’s speech was well crafted and convincingly delivered. But she failed to put forward ideas of a similar scale to Labour’s. The few policies she announced—a plan to let councils borrow more to build houses, and the continued freezing of fuel duty—were small-bore. A promise to end austerity came with no explanation of how. “Conservatives will always stand up for a politics that unites us rather than divides us,” she promised. Unfortunately for the prime minister, what most unites the Conservatives is a feeling that her time in office is coming to an end.

A host of MPs are jostling to position themselves for the moment when Mrs May leaves (or is forced out of) Downing Street. This week’s conference turned into a ministerial catwalk, with suitors flaunting themselves before the MPs and Tory activists who will pick the party’s next leader, and thus Britain’s next prime minister.

The day before Mrs May’s speech, Boris Johnson, her least-subtle would-be successor, hosted a 1,500-strong rally in which he set out an undisguised alternative plan for government. Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, tried to fire up party members by likening the European Union to the USSR, and ended up infuriating EU ambassadors. Sajid Javid, the ambitious home secretary, promised to give taxpayers the £39bn ($50bn) that Britain owes the EU, if the country leaves with no deal. They are the front-runners in a long list of pretenders (see chart). Mrs May’s eventual departure could trigger the most open leadership contest in decades. The next leader must clear two hurdles. First, he or she must win the support of fellow MPs, who select a shortlist of two. The next hurdle is to win over the party’s 124,000 members, who have the final say. Appealing to both of these groups is a difficult trick to pull off. MPs and activists may belong to the same party, but they are very different constituencies.

Take a chance on me

Two-thirds of Tory MPs were elected after 2010. Although many are strongly Eurosceptic, most have turned their attention to the questions Britain will face after it leaves the EU. At one event James Cleverly, the party’s deputy chairman, joked that he didn’t “give a shit” about the Brexit process. Fringe meetings saw earnest discussion of the housing crisis, the struggling high street and how to reinvigorate local government. Labour is “setting the rules of the game”, complained Lee Rowley, an astute member of the Conservatives’ 2017 intake. The overwhelming consideration for most MPs in choosing a leader will be who can best keep the opposition from power, rather than who has the best lines on Brexit.

This may not be the case for the rank and file, for whom Brexit trumps nearly everything. Tory activists are “markedly Eurosceptic”, says Paul Goodman, the editor of ConservativeHome, a website for Tory activists. In Birmingham it was the hardline Brexiteers who were greeted with most excitement by members (see Bagehot). Young activists queued for three hours to see Mr Johnson.

Members may be sceptical of the Damascene conversion of ministers like Mr Hunt, who backed Remain but now claims he would vote for Brexit if he had his time again. (Mrs May, another Remainer, has always refused to answer this question.) Mr Javid also voted for Remain, though mainly because at the time it looked like a sensible career move. Those who backed Leave from the beginning, such as Penny Mordaunt, the international-development secretary, may have an edge that makes up for their inexperience. Although the party membership is male, pale and stale, it can be far-sighted. In 2005 it plumped for a 39-year-old David Cameron over an older and more right-wing David Davis, points out one former Downing Street staffer.

It may yet be some time before the contest gets under way. To trigger a leadership challenge, 48 Tory MPs—15% of the total—must submit letters of no confidence in the prime minister. Many are reluctant to do so while the negotiations with Brussels are in their final, crucial phase. Should Mrs May survive until Brexit day, on March 29th, her fortunes may improve markedly. If she reaches a deal with Brussels, she will be unwilling to go quietly, believes one MP. What’s more, if a leadership challenge is triggered and she survives it, under the party’s rules a fresh challenge cannot be launched for another year.

Perhaps with this in mind, many ambitious, highly rated young MPs like Rishi Sunak and Tom Tugendhat have so far kept a low profile. The Conservative Party has a regicidal streak, but those who are seen to bring down a leader rarely end up with the prize, say old hands.

Whoever steers Britain into its post-Brexit era will face a grim task, with an exit deal that is likely to leave no one satisfied, frail public institutions, a fragile economy and a Labour Party increasingly setting the economic agenda. They will need big ideas as well as powerful rhetoric. Even then, they will have little to dance about.