2018 California Legislative Primary Preview

I am breaking out the previews for California legislatures into their own diary, because California is just so huge and there’s a lot to pay attention to in these races. The other Super Tuesday states will come in a separate diary Saturday Morning. California’s legislature of course uses the California Rules Top Two format, where the top two contenders in the primary advance to the general in November. California’s primary vote shares are semi-informative; while they can give you a general idea of how the race shapes up, wild swings in vote share between June and November have been known to happen. I am previewing here what I believe are all the races that don’t just feature an incumbent coasting to re-election. I will break out the contested races from the straw polls with only two serious candidates. But first I’ll start off with the Legislative Recall & Legislative Special Elections.

Legislative Recall : One State Senate seat is up for a highly contentious recall vote next week.

CA-SD-29 is a D+5 (but historically-Republican) seat centered on upscale suburbs of northern Orange County around Fullerton and Yorba Linda, but also including Diamond Bar to the north. Incumbent Josh Newman (D) picked up this seat very narrowly on Hillary’s coattails in 2016 in a considerable upset. Republicans have succeeded in getting a recall of Newman on the ballot over Newman’s support for a gas tax hike, which could be a very salient issue in this commuter-heavy district. As you may recall, California recalls operate as a plebiscite on the incumbent (recall yes/no) followed by a first-past-the-post all-party general in which the incumbent is barred from running to succeed himself. Republicans have gone all-in on the Newman recall, while Democrats have gone all-in on stopping it. The legislature has even resorted to some dirty legislative tricks to try and torpedo the recall, though those have failed. Three Republicans and Three Democrats are vying to succeed Newman if he is recalled. The likely winner if Newman is recalled is his 2016 rival, ex-State Rep. Ling-Ling Chang (R). Chang has strong GOP establishment support. However, her bid may be complicated by two rivals. Fullerton councilman Bruce Whitaker (R) has some support from the antiestablishment side of the party, most notably State Sen. John Moorlach (R). A third Republican, businessman George Shen (R), is also running a serious campaign. Vote splitting between the Republicans could open the door for a Democrat to sneak through even if the recall succeed. Two Dems seem largely non-serious, but the third, ex-Cerritos Mayor Joseph Cho (D), could sneak through on liberal votes if the GOP vote is split. This race is highly contentious, and it looks like a coin-flip whether Newman will be recalled or not. If Newman is recalled, Chang still looks like the front-runner, though there is a chance Whitaker could upset or vote-splitting could allow Cho to replace Newman.

Legislative Specials : There are three standard legislative specials in California this week as well; legislative specials use Louisiana Rules Top Two. There is one preliminary race for a Senate seat and two runoffs for House seats.

CA-SD-32 is a Hispanic-majority D+18 seat in LA’s lower-middle-class southeast suburbs around Downey and Norwalk. Ex-State Sen. Tony Mendoza (D) resigned ahead of expulsion proceedings for sexually harassing his staffers, but he is running to get his seat back. Eight Democrats and two Republicans are running, meaning there is a realistic possibility the two non-serious Republicans, 2014/16 State House nominee Rita Topalian (R) and businessman Ion Sarenga (R), could both make the general. There are six serious Democrats vying to replace Mendoza, all of whom have some establishment support. To run them down, they are: 2000s-era ex-State Rep. and Norwalk councilman Rudy Bermudez (D), Pico Rivera councilman and ex-mayor Bob Archuleta (D), Montebello Mayor Vanessa Delgado (D), Montebello councilwoman Vivian Romero (D), Artesia councilman Ali Taj (D), and community college board member Vicky Santana (D). None of the six has come close to consolidating support of the local establishment, and thus the prospect of them splitting the vote thoroughly enough to allow two Republicans or Mendoza and a Republican through is a realistic possibility. Two other Dem Some Dudes are non-serious. This seat is also up for the full term in a California Rules Top Two format, with substantially the same candidates; the two non-serious D candidates are not on the full-term ballot while a different D Some Dude not in the special is seeking the full term.

CA-LD-39 is a D+26 seat in the poor Hispanic-majority northeastern San Fernando Valley. Nonprofit exec and city official Luz Rivas (D) led the crowded first round by a wide margin with 43% and is the prohibitive favorite in the runoff over 2012 nominee and 2014 State Senate candidate Ricardo Benitez (R). Several also-rans from the special are contesting the race for the full term, but Rivas should be the strong favorite.

CA-LD-45 is a vacant D+19 seat in the central and southwestern San Fernando Valley. County advisory board member Jesse Gabriel (D) took first in the crowded first round by a wide margin with 33% and is the prohibitive favorite in the runoff over 18-year old college student Justin Clark (R). Several also-rans from the special are contesting the race for the full term, but Gabriel should be the strong favorite.

California Senate Contested Races :

CA-SD-4 is an R+5 seat covering the northern Central Valley, including Chico and Yuba City, as well as a slice of Sacramento’s northeast suburbs around Roseville. Incumbent Jim Nielsen (R) will likely head to a general with casino worker Phillip Kim (D); there is also another D some Dude in the race who seems non-serious. Nielsen should be a strong favorite in the general.

CA-SD-8 is an open R+6 seat covering the mountains around Yosemite, plus nibbles of eastern Central Valley suburbs from Fresno to just shy of Sacramento. Fresno County commissioner Andreas Borgeas (R) is the clear favorite for the open seat. Tom Pratt (D), an insurance agent who was previously a school board member in Santa Monica, has the party endorsement and should be favored for the second spot over 2014 nominee Paulina Miranda (D).

CA-SD-12 is an open Hispanic-majority R-held D+9 seat covering most of the west-central Central Valley, including Turlock and Merced, and then crossing the mountains to include Salinas. Four candidates are running, two Democrats and two Republicans, meaning this seat is probably the most chaotic Senate race from a partisan point of view. State Rep. Anna Caballero (D) has the strongest political resume of the four. She also has the strongest establishment support, including the official state Dem endorsement. However, she hails from Salinas, far from the bulk of the district. The other Dem in the race is Fowler councilman and 2016 CA-21 congressional candidate Daniel Parra (D), who may have higher name recognition in the Central Valley, but is considered a weak candidate (his initially-touted bid for CA-21 fizzled quite dramatically). For Republicans, Madera County commissioner Rob Poythress (R) and 2014/16 CA-16 congressional nominee Johnny Tacherra (R) have split establishment support almost equally. This is a Dem-leaning seat, but also one where the Hispanic Dem base is likely to be low-turnout. So any two candidates advancing – including a Top-Two lockout by either party – is a realistic possibility, though right now I would bet on Caballero advancing with one of the Republicans. If one D and one R advance, the general will be highly competitive.

CA-SD-14 is an Hispanic-majority R-held D+10 seat stretching from central Fresno through the rural Central Valley to the Hispanic-majority southeast part of Bakersfield. Three Democrats are vying to take on incumbent Andy Vidak (R). Sanger councilwoman Melissa Hurtado (D) and school board member Abigail Solis (D) have split establishment support, and there is no clear favorite between the two for the right to advance with Vidak. A third Dem, 2014/16 State House nominee and Tulare County Dem chair Ruben Macareno (D), seems a longer-shot. Vidak has proven a very strong incumbent and the Dem base in this seat is overwhelmingly poor, low-turnout Hispanics who are unlikely to be energized this year. However, with the Dem environment an Dem pickup is possible.

CA-SD-16 is an open R+13 seat covering most of the Bakersfield area, plus Tulare and the High Desert around Barstow. Ex-State Rep. Shannon Grove (R) has unanimous GOP establishment support and is the near-prohibitive favorite to take the seat. Two others are vying to advance with her. 2014 nominee and ex-Needles councilwoman Ruth Musser-Lopez (D) is probably likely to take second on the Dem base, but minister and 2016 Bakersfield Mayoral candidate Gregory Tatum (R) might be able to sneak into second place.

CA-SD-18 is a Hispanic-majority D+28 seat covering the eastern and central San Fernando Valley. Incumbent Bob Hertzberg (D) was involved in a minor #pervnado incident when he was criticized for aggressive hugging. However, he seems to have retained most of his support. Hertzberg should be favored, but will head to a general with one of three rivals. Bail bondsman Roger Sayegh (D), who is running as a moderate, might make the general competitive if he peels off enough Dems from Hertzberg, but it’s probably more likely one of the two Republicans advances and renders the general moot.

CA-SD-22 is an open Hispanic-majority D+22 seat covering most of the San Gabriel Valley, centered around El Monte. Four Dems are facing off. Ex-State Rep. Mike Eng (D) is the husband of US Rep. Judy Chu (D), who represents much of the area. He is seeking a comeback after terming out in 2012 and has strong establishment support. He likely heads to a general with Baldwin Park councilwoman Susan Rubio (D). Rubio is the sister of State Rep. Blanca (D) and ex-wife of Blanca’s predecessor, State Rep. Roger Hernandez (D). Susan Rubio notably filed a restraining order against Hernandez for domestic violence. She has significant establishment support as well, though somewhat less than Eng. An Eng-Rubio general will likely be very competitive. The other two candidates, Baldwin Park councilwoman Monica Garcia (D) and legislative staffer Ruben Sierra (D), seem like longer-shots to make the general. However, Garcia in particular could have a small chance to upset one of the two front-runners.

CA-SD-28 is an R+2 seat covering the Coachella Valley as well as part of the Temecula Valley. Incumbent Jeff Stone (R) will head to a general with one of two Democrats. Healthcare exec Joy Silver (D) has the party endorsement and is favored for the second spot over nurse and 2014 candidate Anna Nevenic (D). Stone will start out favored but the general could be competitive.

CA-SD-34 is an R-held D+10 seat covering west-central Orange County, including Santa Ana, Westminster, and Seal Beach, plus a slice of southeastern Long Beach. Incumbent Janet Nguyen (R) won this seat surprisingly easily in 2014 but will likely have a tough re-election bid as this already Dem-leaning seat continues to trend left. Ex-State Rep. Tom Umberg (D) likely advances to a general with Nguyen over two Some Dude Dems. Umberg is a “B” list candidate for Dems as he carpetbagged into the seat and has lost four races, but this seat could have a heavy #resistance turnout this year.

California Senate Straw Polls :

CA-SD-2 is a D+21 seat covering the Pacific Coast from the Golden Gate Bridge to Oregon, with Santa Rosa as its largest city. Incumbent Mike McGuire (D) will head to a general with ex-Santa Rosa councilwoman Roni Jacobi (D), who is running to his left and has previously lost bids for State House in 2014 and 2016. McGuire should be a strong favorite in the general.

CA-SD-24 is an open Hispanic-majority D+36 seat covering the city of LA north and east of downtown. DNC vice-chair and union executive Maria-Elena Durazo (D) is the strong favorite for the seat; she will head to a general with chamber of commerce official and 2014 candidate Peter Choi (D).

CA-SD-36 is an R-held EVEN seat covering the Oceanside/Carlsbad area of northern San Diego County and most of southern Orange County around Laguna Niguel. Incumbent Pat Bates (R) will head to a general with Marggie Castellano (D), who produces TV ads for Peru’s tourism bureau. In this historically-R seat, Bates is favored for re-election, though this seat could flip in a Dem wave.

CA-SD-38 is an open R+4 seat covering San Diego’s eastern suburbs as well as the Escondido area to the north. Ex-State Rep. Brian Jones (R) is the clear favorite for the seat over firefighter and elected hospital board member Jeff Griffith (D), who will advance with Jones to the general.

California House Contested Races :

CA-LD-9 is a D+13 seat covering Sacramento’s southern suburbs around Elk Grove. Incumbent Jim Cooper (D), who is moderate by California standards, has strong establishment support and should be favored for re-election, but two rival Dems are also in the race. Businessman Mario Garcia (D) is running to the center and could get crossover support (no Republicans are running); thus, Garcia looks like a slight favorite over realtor Harry He (D), who is running on a left-wing platform. Cooper will likely be favored in the general, but it might be competitive.

CA-LD-11 is a D+11 seat around Vaccaville and Fairfield, and stretching across the Delta to Antioch. Incumbent Jim Frazier (D) is facing two challengers. Professor Lisa Romero (R) likely advances on GOP votes. School board member Diane Stewart (D) seems a longer-shot due to the seat’s large GOP base and Frazier’s incumbency.

CA-LD-13 is a D+15 seat covering Stockton and Tracy. Incumbent Susan Talamantes-Eggman (D), an establishment liberal, is facing two challengers. The more serious challenger is ex-San Joaquin County supervisor and 2016 Stockton mayoral candidate Carlos Villapudua (D). Villapudua is slightly more moderate and has high name recognition from his county office; if he advances the general will be competitive. However, a Some Dude Republican, Antonio Garcia (R), is also running, and is probably more likely than not to advance to the general; if Garcia advances, the Dem will be a strong favorite in the general. I would peg Talamantes-Eggman as likely to take first and Garcia a moderate favorite for the second slot, but Villapudua sneaking into second is possible.

CA-LD-15 is an open D+39 seat in the urban East Bay around Richmond. 11(!) Democrats and one Republican are running, meaning it’s an open question whether the lone Republican, college student Pranav Jandhyala (R), can snag a spot and render the general moot, or whether two Dems will advance to a competitive general. There are seven Democrats who have split the establishment’s support; any one or two of them could advance. To run them down, they are: Oakland councilman Dan Kalb (D), Richmond councilwoman Jovanka Beckeles (D), Berkeley councilman Ben Bartlett (D), El Cerrito councilwoman Rochelle Pardue-Okimoto (D), school board member Judy Appel (D), utility board member Andy Katz (D), and Obama campaign staffer Buffy Wicks (D). Four others, 2012/14 CA-11 congressional candidate Cheryl Sudduth (D), attorney Raquella Thaman (D), writer Owen Poindexter (D), and programmer Sergey Piterman (D), seem like longer-shots. In a field this crowded, it’s hard to make anything more than a wild guess as to how it will end up.

CA-LD-26 is an R+7 seat around Visalia, Tulare, and Porterville. Incumbent Devon Mathis (R) is in a very tough fight for re-election. Mathis is under fire for various ideological apostasies, most notably voting for a cap-and-trade plan despite representing a conservative seat. But his personal issues are perhaps even more salient. Last year, Mathis was investigated for allegedly sexually assaulting a staffer, digitally penetrating her while she was passed out drunk. There have also been unconfirmed allegations of Mathis harassing other staffers. And if that weren’t enough, there are allegations that Mathis has a habit of drinking on the job, has been improperly collecting disability benefits, and was abusive toward his children. None of the allegations have been confirmed, but there’s certainly a lot of smoke here. As such, Mathis is facing three rivals. Mathis’s saving grace may be that there is only one Dem in the race, Tulare councilman Jose Sigala (D), who should advance to the general on Dem base votes. Though this is a GOP-leaning seat, Sigala could potentially have a chance against Mathis in the general if the personal issues stay salient. Visalia Mayor Warren Gubler (R) looks like the stronger challenger to Mathis, and has strong support from the local conservative establishment. However, another conservative, rancher Jack Lavers (R), is also running a serious campaign and could split the anti-Mathis vote. My guess is that Mathis is enough of a mess that Gubler will advance with Sigala, but vote-splitting between his Republican challengers could allow Mathis to take a general election spot with Sigala.

CA-LD-30 is an open D+19 seat covering Gilroy and Salinas. Four Democrats and a Republican are facing off, meaning the lone R, businessman Neil Kitchens (R) likely advances to lose the general, making the primary winner-take-all. San Benito County commissioner Robert Rivas (D) has the official Dem party endorsement, as well as the strongest establishment support, and thus looks like the front-runner. However, his main rival, Gilroy councilman Peter Leroe-Munoz (D), has a significant minority of establishment support and could pull the upset, or potentially even sneak ahead of Kitchens to make a D-on-D general if liberal turnout is strong. Two others, Watsonville councilwoman Trina Coffman-Gomez (D) and farmer Bill Lipe (D), are somewhat serious but seem like longer-shots.

CA-LD-33 is an R+8 seat in the High Desert around Barstow, with most of the population in the Victorville area. Incumbent Jay Obernolte (R) will head to a general with one of two Dems; 2016 nominee Scott Markovich (D) looks like a moderate favorite for the second spot over transit worker Scorro Cisneros (D). Obernolte will be a strong favorite in the general barring a mammoth wave.

CA-LD-40 is an open R-held D+6 seat covering eastern San Bernardino and most of Rancho Cucamonga. San Bernardino city councilman Henry Nickel (R) and San Bernardino County commissioner James Ramos (D) will head to a competitive general. The third candidate, teacher Libbern Cook (D), will likely fall well short. Ramos is probably a slight to moderate favorite to pick up this left-trending, diversifying seat in November.

CA-LD-42 is an R+3 seat covering most of the Coachella Valley and the Twentynine Palms area to the north, as well as part of the Hemet area to the west. Incumbent Chad Mayes (R), a former House Minority leader who was sacked last year, is under fire for both ideological apostasies and personal issues. Mays’s personal issues are relatively minor (he had an affair with his predecessor as House Minority leader, then-State Rep. Kristin Olsen (R)). But his ideological apostasies are significant, as he has embraced the Schwarzenegger mantle of being an unapologetic RINO. Mayes is helped by the fact that he has two Republican challengers and only one Democrat is running. Attorney Deni Mazingo (D) is not running a particularly serious campaign, but almost certainly takes one general election slot unless there is unprecedented Dem crossover support for Mayes. If Mayes loses in the primary, Mazingo may get some outside support as this seat could be a long-shot D pickup opportunity. Two Republicans are running to Mayes’s right. San Jacinto councilman Andrew Kotyuk (R) seems the more serious candidate, as he has support from much of the area’s conservative establishment, including State Sen. Jeff Stone (R). However, Kotyuk’s bid is complicated by a second conservative, former Palm Springs police chief Gary Jeandron (R). Jeandron is nearing perennial candidate status, as he has lost runs for State Rep. in 2008, county commissioner in 2010, and a primary for this seat to Mayes in 2014. However, his name recognition could allow him to gain votes and split the anti-Mayes vote with Kotyuk. Overall, Mazingo and Mayes advancing looks like the most likely outcome, but if conservative fervor is strong, Kotyuk or even Jeandron might have a chance to pull the upset and oust Mayes.

CA-LD-44 is a D+9 seat stretching from Oxnard to Thousand Oaks. Incumbent Jacqui Irwin (D) should head to a general with attorney Ronda Baldwin-Kennedy (R); a Some Dude Dem should likely fall well short. Irwin has proven a strong incumbent and should be favored in the general, though this seat might be on the edge of the playing field as it was GOP-held until 2014.

CA-LD-52 is a D+18 seat covering Pomona and Ontario. Three candidates are facing off. Incumbent Freddie Rodriguez (D) should take the first slot and will probably head to a non-competitive general with local GOP official Toni Holle (R). However, there is a chance school board member Frank Guzman (D) could make the general election competitive if he beats out Holle for the second spot.

CA-LD-53 is a D+37 seat covering downtown LA, Koreatown, and poor urban areas to the southeast. Incumbent Miguel Santiago (D) should take the first spot. He likely heads to a rematch with attorney and 2016 candidate Kevin Jang (D), who took 14% and third place in the primary two years ago. Jang could have a base in the Korean community that may make the general election somewhat competitive. A third Dem in the race, who seems non-serious, will likely fall short.

CA-LD-54 is a D+37 seat covering upper-middle-class to wealthy areas of West LA, along the 405 from UCLA through Culver City to Baldwin Hills. Incumbent Sydney Kamlager (D) won a special earlier this year with 69%. She faces a challenge from Obama admin official Steve Dunwoody (D), who is running to her left and has some far-left support, including from the Nurses’ Union. Research scientist Tepring Piquado (D) and three-time nominee Glen Ratcliff (R) both took in the low teens in the special and might have a slight chance to beat out Dunwoody for the second spot. Two other Dem Some Dudes seem non-serious.

CA-LD-55 is an R-held D+2 seat around Yorba Linda and Diamond Bar. Incumbent Phillip Chen (R) is facing four challengers, two Dems and two Republicans. Chen should take one spot, but who will advance with him is an open question. Two mediocre Democrats could split the vote in this historically-Republican seat, 2012/14/16 nominee Gregg Fritchle (D) and realtor Melissa Fazli (D). Democrats don’t seem particularly enthusiastic about either candidate, though this #resistance heavy upscale seat could be a long-shot pickup target. It is also possible Fazli and Fritchle split the Dem vote enough to allow businessman Scott Lebda (R) to snag the second spot. A third Republican is in the race, who seems non-serious but could improve the odds of a Dem making it to the general.

CA-LD-57 is a D+18 seat covering lower-middle-class eastern LA suburbs around Whittier and La Mirada. Incumbent Ian Calderon (D), the House Majority Leader, comes from a very prominent local political family, but also one where relatives have been snared by corruption investigations. Ian though has so far escaped any personal involvement. He likely heads to a non-competitive general with attorney Jessica Martinez (R), the only serious GOP candidate. However, there is a chance that a second non-serious R could peel off enough votes to allow one of two Dem Calderon rivals, professor Justin Valero (D) or realtor Blake Sullivan-Carter (D), into the general, in which case Calderon’s family issues could make the race competitive.

CA-LD-58 is a D+24 seat covering lower-middle-class eastern LA suburbs around Pico Rivera, Downey, and Cerritos. Incumbent Cristina Garcia (D) was considered a rising star in liberal circles, until a few months ago when it came out that she drunkenly groped and propositioned male staffers, as well as made homophobic and racist slurs. Garcia took an unpaid leave of absence but did not resign and is still seeking re-election. Six Democrats and one Republican are vying to take on Garcia, meaning that the Dem vote could be split enough for banker Mike Simpfenderfer (R) to take one general election spot and render the general moot. Four Dems are serious. Legislative staffer Frine Medrano (D) looks like the biggest threat to Garcia. Medrano is a staffer to Senate president Kevin DeLeon and has the backing of his network, which forms a formidable machine in this area. Ex-Commerce mayor Ivan Altamirano (D) has fundraised well and could have a base in his hometown, but was also hit with $15K in ethics fines for conflict of interest violations two years ago. Bell Gardens councilman Pedro Aceituno (D) has a modicum of establishment support from his hometown. Finally, consultant Karla Salazar (D) is also running a serious campaign, but doesn’t have many establishment connections. The fifth Dem seems non serious, while the sixth has stopped campaigning and endorsed Medrano but is still on the ballot. This race is hard to handicap overall, but my gut feeling is that Medrano and Simpfenderfer advance. However, vote-splitting between her challengers could allow Garcia to sneak through. A D-on-D general may also be a possibility.

CA-LD-63 is a D+29 seat in blue-collar southeast LA suburbs around Lynwood, Paramount, and Lakewood. Incumbent House Speaker Anthony Rendon (D) is under fire from the left for killing an unworkable single-payer healthcare bill. He is facing a serious challenge from office manager Maria Estrada (D), who could potentially make the general election competitive on left-wing enthusiasm. However, Estrada will first need to get past 2014/16 nominee Adam Miller (R), who could make the general on the seat’s GOP base and render the second round moot. It seems Estrada is more likely than not to take second.

CA-LD-66 is a D+12 seat around Torrance, Manhattan Beach, and the Palos Verdes Peninsula. Incumbent Al Muratsuchi (D) lost this seat in 2014 before regaining it in 2016. This year he is facing a serious Republican challenger in ex-Torrance Mayor Frank Scotto (R), though the lean and continued leftward trend of this seat probably leaves Muratsuchi a moderate favorite. The third candidate in the primary race, left-wing 2017 LA City council candidate Caney Arnold (D), likely falls well short of Muratsuchi and Scotto, but could take a significant number of votes.

CA-LD-71 is an R+10 seat covering San Diego’s eastern suburbs. Nonprofit exec James Elia (D) likely takes one slot on the seat’s Dem base, but will almost certainly lose the general. Incumbent Randy Voepel (R) should be favored to advance over former Navy SEAL and 2014 CA-53 nominee Larry Wilske (R), though there might a small chance Wilske could pull the upset.

CA-LD-72 is an open R-held D+3 seat in western Orange County around Westminster and Fountain Valley. Four Republicans and a Dem are running, meaning the lone Democrat, businessman Josh Lowenthal (D), son of Rep. Alan (D), will advance. Lowenthal will likely make the general election in this historically-Republican but left-trending and #resistance heavy seat very competitive. There are four Republicans running, but only two are serious, Westminster councilman and Vietnamese TV news anchor Tyler Diep (R) and Pepsi exec and former congressional staffer Greg Haskin (R). The two have split institutional support almost equally and both have fundraised well; Diep seems to be the favorite of the party’s more ideological conservatives while Haskin seems to have stronger backing from more establishment-friendly figures. Two others, a perennial candidate and a non-serious Some Dude, seem unlikely to advance. There is no clear favorite between Diep and Haskin in the primary.

CA-LD-73 is an R+4 seat covering southern Orange County around Laguna Niguel. Manager Scott Rhinehart (D) should take one spot on the seat’s Democratic base. Incumbent Bill Brough (R), who is somewhat moderate, is facing a challenge to his right from Mission Viejo Mayor Ed Sachs (R). Brough is probably favored, but an upset may be possible. Either Republican should start as a fairly strong favorite in this very historically-Republican seat, but this very wealthy seat has a sizeable #resistance contingent that could make the general competitive.

CA-LD-74 is an R-held D+3 seat in coastal Orange County around Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, and southern Irvine. Incumbent Matt Harper (R) is facing four challengers, one Republican and three Democrats. Harper’s Republican challenger is perennial candidate Katherine Daigle (R), an antiestablishment conservative who has lost races for this seat in 2016 and for Irvine Mayor in 2014 and 2016. Daigle could advance with Harper if three Democrats split the vote thoroughly enough. However, one Dem, businesswoman Cottie Petrie-Norris (D), has most establishment support and the official party endorsement, and thus looks likely to advance with Harper. The two other Dems, 2014/16 candidate Karina Onofre (D) and consultant Ryan Ta (D), seem like long-shots. Assuming Harper and Petrie-Norris advance, the general election in this upscale, left-trending and #resistance heavy seat should be competitive, though the area’s Republican heritage probably means Harper starts as a slight favorite.

CA-LD-76 is an open R-held D+5 seat covering the Oceanside-Carlsbad area. Six Republicans and two Democrats are facing off, meaning a D-on-D general is a realistic possibility. Encinitas councilwoman Tasha Boerner-Horvath (D) has more establishment support and is probably favored to advance. However, the other Dem, reporter (not that) Elizabeth Warren (D), has some left-wing support and could potentially take the second slot if the GOP vote is fractured enough. Hoping to avert that scenario, the largest chunk of the local and state GOP establishment is backing businessman Phil Graham (R), stepson of ex-Gov. Pete Wilson (R). However, four other Republicans could complicate Graham’s path. 2014/16 candidate Thomas Krouse (R), who made the general by default both times as no one else ran against the prior incumbent and took around 40% each time, could have strong name recognition; he is running on a libertarian-leaning platform. Three other Republicans, ex-Encinitas Mayor Jerome Stocks (R), Vista councilwoman Amanda Rigby (R), and school board member Mo Muir (R) all could have bases in their respective home areas and each seems to have a modicum of establishment support. The sixth Republican seems non-serious. Overall, I would say that conditions here are close to perfect for a D-on-D general, though it also seems possible that one of the Republicans (most likely Graham, but potentially any of the other four) could move on with Boerner-Horvath. If a Republican advances, the general will likely be competitive.

California House Straw Polls :

CA-LD-5 is an R+9 seat covering the mountains around Yosemite, plus the Madera area. Incumbent Frank Bigelow (R) will head to a general with school board member Carla Neal (D). The incumbent should be a strong favorite barring a mammoth wave.

CA-LD-6 is an R+6 seat in Sacramento suburbs around Roseville and Folsom. Incumbent Kevin Kiley (R) will head to a general with businesswoman Jackie Smith (D). The incumbent should be a strong favorite barring a mammoth wave.

CA-LD-8 is a D+4 seat covering Sacramento’s eastern and southeastern suburbs. Incumbent Ken Cooley (D) has locked down this swingy seat relatively well. Cooley will head to a general with businesswoman Melinda Avey (R) in what looks like a long-shot but on-the-board race for Republicans.

CA-LD-12 is an R+5 seat covering Manteca as well as the eastern suburbs of both Stockton and Modesto. Incumbent Heath Flora (R) will head to a general with public defender Robert Chase (D). The incumbent should be a strong favorite barring a mammoth wave.

CA-LD-16 is an R-held D+17 seat in upscale East Bay suburbs from Walnut Creek to Pleasanton. Incumbent Catharine Baker (R) is an abnormally moderate and strong incumbent who has managed to win twice against the ridiculously tough terrain of this seat. She will head to a general with attorney Rebecca Bauer-Kahan (D), who is running mostly based on partisanship. The race has already become nasty and the general election will be highly competitive, especially as this seat is hardcore #resistance territory.

CA-LD-23 is an R+4 seat covering northern Fresno, the suburb of Clovis, and rural areas to the east. Incumbent Jim Patterson (R) will head to a general with professor Aileen Rizo (D). The incumbent should be favored, though this may be a long-shot Dem target in a big wave.

CA-LD-31 is a D+14 seat covering the southern half of Fresno and rural farm country to the south and west. Incumbent Joaquin Arambula (D) will head to a general with university administrator Lupe Espinoza (R). This seat has a big midterm dropoff of its poor Hispanic Dem base, but is still D-leaning, and Arambula has proven a strong incumbent. Thus, this is probably at best an ultra-long-shot for Republicans, though it might come on to the edge of the field.

CA-LD-32 is a D+8 seat stretching from Hispanic-majority neighborhoods of southeast Bakersfield north through farms to Hanford. Incumbent Rudy Salas (D) will head to a potentially competitive general with Hanford councilman Justin Mendes (R). This seat sees dramatic dropoff of its poor Hispanic Dem base in midterms, but Salas, a moderate, has managed to hold it relatively easily. Republicans are enthusiastic about Mendes, however.

CA-LD-35 is an R-held D+2 seat around San Luis Obispo and Santa Maria. Incumbent Jordan Cunningham (R) will head to a general with 2016 CA-24 candidate and farmer Bill Ostrander (D), who also runs a campaign-finance-reform activist group. Cunningham probably starts as a moderate favorite, but the general election is likely to be competitive.

CA-LD-36 is an R-held D+2 seat covering the Lancaster-Palmdale area. Incumbent Tom Lackey (R) will head to a third rematch with ex-State Rep. Steve Fox (D), whom Lackey ousted in 2014 and beat again in 2016. Fox was considered something of a fluke winner in 2012, as evidenced by a 20-point loss to Lackey in 2014 and a 7-point loss in 2016. This seat is trending left, though the Dem base here is more low-turnout downscale minorities. Overall, Lackey is a moderate favorite but Fox could have a chance in a good Dem environment.

CA-LD-38 is an R-held D+2 seat around Santa Clarita and Simi Valley. Incumbent Dante Acosta (D) is facing a rematch with school board member and 2016 nominee Christy Smith (D). Acosta won by 6% in 2016, but this very upscale seat is likely to have a high #resistance turnout this year. Thus, the general election is likely to be competitive.

CA-LD-60 is a D+4 seat around Corona and Jurupa Valley. Incumbent Sabrina Cervantes (D) picked up this seat in 2016 by defeating a Republican incumbent by a strong 9-point margin. However, Cervantes could be vulnerable over her vote for the gas tax hike in a district heavy with supercommuters. Cervantes will head to a general with former prosecutor Bill Essayli (R); the general is likely to be competitive.

CA-LD-65 is a D+9 seat in suburbs of northwestern Orange County around Buena Park and Fullerton. This historically-Republican area has been one of the state’s swingiest districts. State Rep. Sharon Quirk-Silva (D) defeated an incumbent in 2012, lost in 2014, and won her seat back in 2016. Quirk-Silva will head to a general with school board member Alexandria Coronado (R). The continued strong left trend in this seat probably means Quirk-Silva is a moderate favorite, but the race should be competitive.

CA-LD-67 is an R+9 seat in the Temecula Valley around Lake Elsinore. Incumbent Melissa Melendez (R) will head to a general with teacher Michelle Singleton (D). The incumbent should be a strong favorite barring a mammoth wave

CA-LD-68 is an R-held D+1 seat in central Orange County around Orange, Tustin, and northern Irvine. Incumbent Steven Choi (R) will head to a general with businesswoman Michelle Duman (D). Choi should start as a moderate favorite in this historically-Republican seat, but this #resistance-heavy area is trending left and should be competitive.

CA-LD-75 is an R+5 seat covering the Escondido and Temecula areas. Incumbent Marie Waldron (R) will head to a general with attorney Alan Geraci (D). Waldron should start out as a moderately strong favorite in this historically-Republican seat, but this may be a long-shot Dem target in a big wave.

CA-LD-77 is an R-held D+7 seat covering most of northern San Diego proper. Incumbent Brian Mainschein (R) will head to a general with businesswoman Sunday Gover (D). This is a historically-Republican seat but trending hard-left and #resistance-heavy. Thus, the general election is likely to be competitive.