Mary Troyan

USA Today

WASHINGTON — The tax hikes proposed by Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders wouldn't cover the costs of his plan to dramatically expand government services and could grow the national debt by up to $15 trillion, according to a new non-partisan analysis.

Sanders, I-Vt., wants to expand health care, retirement, tuition, infrastructure and energy programs, but the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget says his financing strategy — require wealthy Americans to pay more in taxes — would fall short by at least $2 trillion and possibly up to $15 trillion over 10 years.

“Government would be basically 50% larger than what it has been historically and that’s a jump that we’ve never even heard discussed in a campaign before,” said Maya MacGuineas, the group's president.

The Washington-based budget watchdog group analyzed Sanders’ proposals for universal health care, tuition-free college, increased Social Security benefits, paid family leave, clean energy projects, and infrastructure improvements.

It calculated that Sanders’ major proposals would cost between $17 trillion and $28 trillion combined (not including interest), and his tax increases would raise less than $16 trillion. As a result, the government would have to raise even more revenue or borrow more to cover the difference.

“He would add to the debt at a time when we already have record levels of debt,” MacGuineas said.

The report concluded the national debt would rise to at least 93% of gross domestic product by 2026 under Sanders’ proposals, up from the 86% estimate based on current law.

Sanders wants to use the tax code to expand government services for children, college students, working adults and retirees.

“We really do give him credit for his ideas to pay for all his policies, because it is a lot better than what we’ve been seeing from a lot of other campaigns,” MacGuineas.said Wednesday. “And in an election, too, when people are hesitant to talk about hard choices.”

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The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget also has analyzed proposals by Republican presidential candidates Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and is working on an analysis of Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton's policy proposals.

Sanders’ campaign says his tax ideas would fully cover the cost of his spending proposals without increasing the debt. The campaign's policy director, Warren Gunnels, referred to economists and health care experts who have said Sanders' health care plan would save each person thousands of dollars a year and is "financed in a fair and responsible way."

"Instead of listening to groups financed by Wall Street billionaires, we are listening to millions of Americans who believe that health care should be a right, not a privilege," Gunnels said. "We are listening to bright, young Americans who cannot afford to get a college education. We are listening to senior citizens who cannot make it on $1,300 a month. That's what this campaign is all about."

Sanders' campaign says his major policies would reduce the debt by $2.8 trillion — reaching 75% of GDP by 2026 — compared to current law, according to the CRFB report.

The conflicting conclusions about his proposals are due to differences over how much each program would cost and how much revenue each tax change would generate.

The biggest disparities involve Sanders' Medicare-for-all plan that would provide government-funded health care for all Americans. Estimates vary widely on how much the single-payer proposal would cost and how much it might save in the long run by lowering health care costs. Sanders' campaign says it would save $2.4 trillion over 10 years.

The CRFB's analysis also sharply differs from the campaign on Sanders' plan to provide a four-year college education free of charge for everyone, financed through a new tax on financial transactions. The campaign estimates the tax would raise $2.25 trillion more over 10 years than the free tuition program would cost. The CRFB said the tax would raise about $200 billion less than the program would cost.

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The watchdog group did find that Sanders overestimated costs and underestimated revenues for one of his proposals — to expand Social Security benefits by taxing income over $250,000. The CRFB estimated those changes would save $1.3 trillion over 10 years. Sanders' campaign says the proposal would essentially break even.

The CRFB has consistently called for reining in the national debt, and MacGuineas said Sanders at least tries to make sure his proposals wouldn't make the debt problem worse. But she said some of the revenue that would be raised under Sanders' tax hikes should be set aside for deficit reduction.

“It is a philosophical preference, and he would say that growing the size of government is the priority,” MacGuineas said. “But we would say you would undermine the benefits to the economy and the citizens if you don’t address the debt.”