The boiling over GTA real estate market that has pushed up demand and prices in Hamilton for the past several years is now spilling over into the Niagara region, housing analysts say.

New stats from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) found that Niagara experienced the biggest percentage price jump of any local market in Canada. Homes have shot up by 81 per cent in the past five years, a sign of surging demand from new buyers flooding into that market.

"It's a classic case of drive till you can qualify," says Shaun Cathcart, senior economist with CREA. "Buyers that are finding Hamilton prices too high, are starting to look at Niagara."

The average price of a house in Niagara is $413,700 compared to $614,800 in Hamilton-Burlington and $801,200 in Greater Toronto. So, the further one drives from Toronto, the cheaper housing becomes.

"It's definitely a reasonable assumption that for people who are priced out of Hamilton that they will move to St. Catharines and elsewhere in Niagara," says Anthony Passarelli, a senior analyst with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

"People who are working in the western part of Toronto, would consider moving there as well with a prospect of a GO train extensions down the road."

Limited GO rail service is currently available in St. Catharines and Niagara Falls with expansion plans for the future, making Niagara more of a viable place for commuting into the GTA.

"People along the corridor of Mississauga, Oakville, Burlington and Hamilton will move all the way to Niagara to really be able to afford a home. And I think in these cases they will likely be moving that far because they want to get a detached home," said Passarelli.

Cathcart says he believes the government-imposed mortgage stress test is also a factor in pushing people further afield. Homebuyers often don't qualify for as much mortgage money as before, forcing them to explore options further away from their workplace.

"That was one of the comments when the government brought in these mortgage tighter rules. If you want to prevent urban sprawl, this is not the way to do it," he says.

Housing price increases over five years •Niagara region — 81 per cent ($413,700 average price)

•Hamilton-Burlington — 67 per cent ($614,800 average price)

•Oakville-Milton — 49 per cent ($1.0 million average price)

•Greater Toronto — 57 per cent ($801,200 average price)

—Source: Canadian Real Estate Association

mmcneil@thespec.com

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