Russell Street Report NFL Draft Ravens Go Quantity Over Quality at WR

Drafting Bad: Wide Receivers

When it comes to the NFL draft, Ozzie Newsome and the Ravens are revered as one of the best in the business. Their strategic maneuvering in and out of rounds, their knack for finding talent in the later rounds, and their ability to turn picks into star players are all qualities that make this franchise a model of success. But even with that success, there is one area in which the Ravens struggle: drafting wide receivers.

Despite the perception that the team is inept at drafting receivers, they surely have not shied away from the position. In fact, since the team’s inception in 1996, the Baltimore Ravens have drafted at least one wide receiver in 15 of the 19 drafts, and 21 players at the position overall. In a positional breakdown, wide receiver is actually the 3rd most drafted position by the Ravens, only slightly behind Offensive Line (26), and Defensive Backs (26).

And we all know about the success stories of great Ravens wide receivers like Demetrius Williams, Yamon Figurs, and David Reed, right?

Surely the word ‘success’ is a stretch. A huge stretch. The cold hard truth is that of those 21 wide receivers drafted in the team’s history, 4 never played a regular season snap, only 3 survived their rookie contract, and only one has landed a second contract with the Ravens.

Sounds grim, right?

Well it is, but it may not be as bad as we’re led to believe. If we take a league-wide look at the draft position of the top-20 wide receivers in 2014 (based on receiving yards) we can see the breakdown skews towards the top end of the draft:

1 st Round- 10

Round- 10 2 nd Round- 6

Round- 6 3 rd Round- 3

Round- 3 6th Round- 1

That’s a fairly obvious correlation between draft position and results. It also appears that the wide receiver position does not necessarily abide by the ‘diamond in the rough’ rule, as 19 of the 20 players were selected in the top 3 rounds.

This is not to say a late round receiver will never thrive in the NFL. As it so happens, since the Ravens broke into the league in 1996, there have been 6 players drafted in rounds 6 & 7 who have gone on to have top-20 seasons at the wide receiver position: Antonio Brown (6th round 2010), Julian Edelman (7th round, 2008), Pierre Garcon (6th round 2008), Marques Colston (7th round 2006), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (7th round 2001) & Donald Driver (7th Round 1999).

That being said, these players make up 6 of the 182 wideouts drafted in the final two rounds since 1996, showing a true success rate of 3.3%.

Not exactly promising odds.

Honing in on the Ravens’ crop of drafted wide receivers, it’s easy to see why most have fizzled. Here’s the round-by-round breakdown of wide receivers drafted by the Baltimore Ravens since the team’s inception in 1996:

1 st Round- 2 (Travis Taylor, Mark Clayton)

Round- 2 (Travis Taylor, Mark Clayton) 2 nd Round- 2 (Patrick Johnson, Torrey Smith)

Round- 2 (Patrick Johnson, Torrey Smith) 3 rd Round- 2 (Devard Darling, Yamon Figurs)

Round- 2 (Devard Darling, Yamon Figurs) 4 th Round- 5 (Brandon Stokley, Ron Johnson, Demetrius Thomas, Justin Harper, Tandon Doss)

Round- 5 (Brandon Stokley, Ron Johnson, Demetrius Thomas, Justin Harper, Tandon Doss) 5 th Round- 2 (Jermaine Lewis, David Reed)

Round- 2 (Jermaine Lewis, David Reed) 6 th Round- 4 (James Roe, Javin Hunter, Clarence Moore, Tommy Streeter)

Round- 4 (James Roe, Javin Hunter, Clarence Moore, Tommy Streeter) 7th Round- 4 (Derek Abney, Marcus Smith, Aaron Mellette, Michael Campanaro)

It’s very clear that the majority of wide receivers drafted by the Ravens have been later round picks which, while not excusing their failure, helps make sense of the lack of success at the position.

But it’s not all bad. In spite of the late round letdowns, the Ravens did have a few wideouts pan out over the years. Jermaine Lewis remains the sole Ravens wideout to sign an extension with the team after 3 solid years as a receiver and kick returner. Outside of Lewis, Devard Darling, Brandon Stokley and Torrey Smith all managed to play out their rookie contracts. Darling and Stokley headed for greener pastures in free agency, and Torrey is due to hit free agency next month.

Though none of these draft picks have ever turned into a true #1 receiver, it could have been worse for Ozzie and the Ravens. Much worse. Despite the appearance that 1st round wide receiver talent tends to thrive in the NFL, there’s still a fair share of busts out there. And while the title of ‘bust’ is all-encompassing, a bust can come in many shapes and sizes.

Some busts, like Justin Blackmon, can’t seem to grasp the concept of avoiding drugs and alcohol while in the NFL’s treatment program. While others, like AJ Jenkins, simply never caught on. There are also a handful of busts, like Ted Ginn Jr., who couldn’t cut it as a top wide receiver, but have found themselves a niche as a return specialist. Then there’s the question mark busts, like Michael Crabtree, who float in ambiguity somewhere between sorta-bust and true-bust, depending on the year, and how much you want to blame Colin Kaepernick.

Looking in our own backyard, the Ravens are no stranger to the early round bust. Patrick Johnson, a 2nd round pick in 1998, only started 15 games for the team over 4 seasons, and managed a paltry 898 yards and 7 TD’s over 39 games in those 4 seasons before being released. Then there was Travis Taylor, the 10th overall pick in the 2000 draft, who had a decent year in 2002, putting up 869 yards and 6 TD’s, but otherwise came nowhere near meeting expectations for a top-10 pick.

In slightly more recent memory, Mark Clayton was selected in the 1st round of the 2005 draft, and while he was without a doubt better than the likes of Patrick Johnson and Travis Taylor, Clayton never really panned out as a top option, resulting in a trade to the St. Louis Rams at the tail end of his rookie contract.

Perhaps the high risk of failure for wide receivers drafted in the early rounds is the reason for the Ravens hesitancy to draft the skill position early on. Maybe for every AJ Green or Dez Bryant who the casual fan sees taken in the 1st round, the Ravens front office sees flashbacks of Travis Taylor and Mark Clayton, and fears the worst. And perhaps with that fear firmly planted in the back of their minds, the Ravens stick to their ‘Best Player Available’ mantra, as opposed to addressing the specific need of wide receiver early in draft.

At the end of the day, it’s hard to blame Ozzie and the Ravens for their failure to draft a successful wide receiver when the Ravens more often than not wait until later rounds to address the position. And given the crap shoot that is an early round receiver, it’s hard to blame them for the few top picks who never panned out. Perhaps the team does need to take another shot at a high round pick to see if they can finally track down the elusive #1 wide receiver who they’ve failed to find in years past.

Or perhaps they do what they’ve done for years and keep trying to catch lightning in a bottle with the later round picks, while continuing to add veteran receivers via free agency and trades.

Come the offseason, it’s all a guessing game with the Ravens, but one constant will always remain: In Oz We Trust.