Capital’s population could reach 9.8 million by 2025 due to overseas arrivals and high birth rate, says Office for National Statistics

The population of London grew at twice the rate of the UK as a whole between 2011 and 2015, and could reach almost 10 million by the middle of next decade, official figures show.

In mid-2011, the population of the city stood at 8.2 million, but over four years it increased by 469,000 to just under 8.7 million, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

The arrival of almost 200,000 people from overseas each year, and an average of 130,000 births a year drove the city’s growth, and offset the high numbers leaving the city for other countries and the rest of the UK.

The ONS figures show the population of London increased by 5.7% between mid-2011 and mid-2015, compared with growth of 2.9% for the UK as a whole. Over the same period, the cost of housing in the capital has rocketed – Land Registry figures show that the average price of a property rose by 47% between June and 2011 and June 2015, from £285,906 to £419,474.

After Greater London, Bristol was the city that saw the biggest boom in residents, with its population rising by 4.5%, or 49,000, to 1.1 million.



“Differing levels of population growth across different cities and regions are often a reflection of the economic strength of the location, with areas where the economy is performing strongest often experiencing most population growth,” the ONS said.

London, with its robust economy, has attracted far more movers from overseas than other parts of the UK, the figures show. Over the four-year period in question, an average of 192,000 people a year moved to London from abroad – including Britons who have returned after a period living overseas – while 95,000 moved in the other direction.

Net international migration to Greater London averaged 97,000 a year, out of a figure of 236,000 for the UK as a whole.

“London’s attraction to immigrants no doubt reflects its status as a major employment centre and international hub,” said the ONS.

“With its high ethnic-minority population it may prove especially attractive to people wishing to join family or others from that cultural background. In addition, for people heading to the UK, London is somewhere they are more likely to have some pre-existing awareness of than other parts of the country – perhaps because of previous visits, but also simply because it has a higher profile as the UK capital.”



Because many immigrants are young adults, the comparatively high immigration to Greater London affects all its other population dynamics, the ONS said. Over the period in question, there were an average 130,000 births in the capital each year and just 48,000 deaths.

The figures also showed large numbers of people leaving Greater London for other parts of the UK. Each year an average of 63,200 people left the capital, with the 22- to 29-year-old age group the only one where more people moved in.



Among 30- to 44-year-olds, 33,600 more people moved out of Greater London than into the city each year, while amongchildren that figure was 31,700.

In contrast, Bristol saw more people move in from around the UK, with net internal migration averaging 3,700 a year between mid-2011 and mid-2015. The population of Edinburgh was also boosted by internal migration, with 2,700 more people moving into the Scottish capital than out. House prices in those cities have also increased.



The ONS said that, based on recent trends, the population of Greater London was projected to grow by 12.7% between 2015 and 2025, to 9.8 million people. Across the whole of the UK, the biggest projected increase is among those aged 65 and over, where the population is expected to grow by 21%. In London, this age group is projected to grow by a quarter over the decade.

Neal Hudson, UK housing market analyst at property firm Savills, said council tax data suggested the number of homes in London had grown by 3.5% between March 2011 and March 2015.

“That highlights some of the pressure on London’s housing stock: more people trying to squeeze in, therefore more overcrowding and more upwards pressure on rents,” he said.

Hudson said that the number of people in their late 30s and early 40s who were leaving London was also down on the levels before the recession.

“They were staying put as a result of improving schools, the credit crunch limiting moves, etc, and so there were fewer opportunities for younger people to replace them on the housing ladder,” he said.

