Without a personality advantage, the Conservative side is struggling to overcome the “natural” advantage Labour appears to have had in the capital in recent years. Labour won London at the General Election by nine points the same night it lost the nation by seven, it controls more than twice as many councils as the Conservatives in the city, and even when Boris was personally re-elected in 2012, Labour won the GLA election at the same time.

Voting trends among different demographics have much to do with this. In the last Parliament, the Conservatives successfully crystallised themselves as the party for older voters – but the opportunity cost of focussing so much time, energy and public funding on this group in the form of the triple lock pension, “granny bonds” and support for house prices, has seen the Conservatives’ position slide amongst younger voters. This has therefore harmed them in London, with its much younger population than the country as a whole.

Demographic change is also playing a part, the growing proportion of Londoners from BAME backgrounds creating a challenge for the Conservatives. Among white Londoners, Zac leads Sadiq 44% to 31% on first preferences, but amongst BAME voters, Sadiq leads by 36 points – even after Conservatives controversial leaflets targeting Hindu and Sikh households. The intention of the leaflets on the face of it appears not necessarily to have been to persuade these groups to vote Conservative, but to disrupt Sadiq’s own campaign and reduce the desire amongst these groups to actually turn out and vote. Historically at mayoral elections however, BAME voters have been as likely to turn up to vote as white voters have.

The Conservatives are also facing troubles with the other key part of Boris’s strategy: the “doughnut” - which appears to be crumbling. Sadiq is ahead in inner London, as might be expected (Sadiq: 49%, Zac 26%), but in outer London, the race is neck-and-neck (41% to 42%). Overall, this then leaves the advantage with Labour, and the Conservatives with all the work to do.

Unfortunately for them, their policy offer does not appear to working at the moment – as the public are mostly unaware of it. When asked to identify key pledges from each of the main five candidates, the majority say they don’t know who is responsible for each of the different promises. Just 19% know that it is Zac who has promised to build 50,000.