Wembley will host the first of three London games on Sunday and the NFL believes the prospect of a permanent London franchise is now moving closer to reality

The figures are almost as dizzying as a crunching helmet-to-helmet hit from a 300lb defensive lineman. On Sunday 84,000 people will pack Wembley when the Seattle Seahawks take on the Oakland Raiders, making it the sporting event with the largest attendance in Britain this weekend.

The same will be true next Sunday when the Tennessee Titans face the Los Angeles Chargers. And the week after the Jacksonville Jaguars return to London to play the Philadelphia Eagles, last season’s Super Bowl champions.

That is 250,000 bums on seats, each paying between £50 and £500 a head, bringing in £25m in gate receipts. And while some will be enjoying the jumbo-finger-waving, XXL-jersey-over-hoodie-wearing, Lite-beer-slurping experience for the first time, a record 47,000 hardcore fans have bought a season ticket to all three London games.

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No wonder Mark Waller, a senior NFL executive, sniffs something in the air. “When we first came to the UK in 2007 it was a great day but it didn’t feel completely like the real thing,” he says. “Now London games have gone from being a novelty to an authentic part of the NFL calendar.”

Next year there will be four NFL games – two at Wembley and two at Spurs’ new ground – and with the Jaguars owner Shahid Khan close to buying Wembley the pieces are fast falling into place for a London franchise, possibly as soon as 2022.

“We are definitely nearer than ever,” says Waller, the NFL executive vice-president of events and international. “The keys for the NFL are: first, is there fan demand to sustain it, and for me the answer is a clear yes. And second, do we have the stadium capacity, availability and optionality to accommodate our games? The fact there is Wembley, Tottenham and Twickenham ticks that box. Having support from sponsors and the government is vital too.”

The NFL backs up its case with research showing nearly four million people in Britain self-identify as “avid” fans – double that of six years ago – and says that Sky and BBC’s viewing figures are also healthier than ever. However, as Waller points out, it needs one of the league’s 32 owners to make a London franchise a reality. “It is not a linear process,” he adds. “The market is ready. The work is being done. Now it just needs the pieces to fall into place, which is predominately going to be owner driven.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson will play his first game in London. Photograph: Troy Wayrynen/USA Today Sports

Not everyone is as convinced. The Seattle cornerback Neiko Thorpe remembers that when he played for the Raiders in London four years ago “there was a lot of cheering for just random stuff” – most likely because many fans were new to the game, or were not cheering for either team.

There are also logistical issues with any future franchise beyond the fact that London is a long way away. Before their 4,800-mile journey to Heathrow the Seahawks shipped 10 tonnes of cargo to the UK – including 1,150 rolls of athletic tape and 500 pairs of shoes for players and staff. It is one thing doing it for a regular season game, when boxes can be packaged weeks in advance, another during the play-offs. However, the NFL is confident it can steadily chisel away at any obstacles in its path.

“This year, for instance, we are playing three matches back-to-back because we have always known that a London team would need to play three or four weekends here followed by three or four in the US to reduce the number of transatlantic trips,” says Waller. “So this is a great opportunity to test the field, the infrastructure and the demand. I think the bigger issues with a London franchise are over attracting the top talent and how players manage families if they are coming over three or four weeks at a time. But I am really comfortable that those things will get solved.”

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The growth of the game in the UK is certainly a good news story for the NFL but off the field things have not been as rosy. The controversy over players kneeling before games and during the Star Spangled Banner to demonstrate against racial inequality and police brutality continues to simmer, with the NFL giving every impression of not wanting to address such a politically hot potato head on.

“The focus now has moved more into what is being done to progress the players’ agenda around social justice and criminal reform,” insists Waller. “If you look at the community work being done by the teams and players to move those agendas forward in their local markets, there is a tremendous amount being done.”

The NFL has also been criticised for being too slow to appreciate the dangers of the sport – last season alone there were 291 cases of concussion, an average of more than one a game – while the growing number of former players with the degenerative brain condition CTE is also a major concern.

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However Waller insists the NFL has been “at the forefront” of making the sport less dangerous. “This year we have definitely focused on taking some of the heavier hitting out of the game and if you look at the results we have the highest scoring start to the season ever,” he says. “Our goal is to find the sweet spot that makes the game safer and yet provides great excitement and entertainment for our fans and I think we are doing that.”

Wembley is certainly likely to enjoy a high-scoring game on Sunday, with the Seahawks, led by their star quarterback Russell Wilson, slight favourites to beat the Raiders. While the Raiders coach Jon Gruden admits he would prefer to be playing at home in Oakland, he appreciates the greater good of his team’s 11-hour flight to London.

“You hate to lose a home game, honestly, but for the betterment of the game, I think it’s exciting,” he says. “It’s great for the game of football.”