Earlier this week, I laid out the gameplan for Conor McGregor to beat Eddie Alvarez at UFC 205. In many ways, the matchup seems to favor the featherweight champion. Alvarez's tendency to get hurt early in fights gives the fast-starting McGregor a sizeable advantage in the early rounds, one which he may see fit to press in light of his apparent stamina issues. McGregor will also enjoy a considerable reach advantage despite moving up from his home division of featherweight--though, in reality, McGregor hasn't fought at 145 in nearly a year. In truth, lightweight is very likely McGregor's optimal weight class, and he should enter the fight in peak condition.

To say that Alvarez is without hope would be a grave mistake, however. Certainly McGregor himself cannot afford to overlook these advantages, and Alvarez would be well advised to use them wherever and whenever he can. The best way to do this is to adhere to the three keys to victory laid out in order of ascending importance below.

3. Move laterally to set up counters

2. Box, THEN pressure

1. Use the jab--liberally

So let's get into it, starting with number three.

3. Move laterally to set up counters

Eddie Alvarez finds himself faced with a conundrum here. As a pressure fighter, McGregor is likely at his most vulnerable when his opponent forces him to retreat and evade, dictating the pace and range of the fight. Yet, on the other hand, is also an excellent counter puncher--while Alvarez is always at his most vulnerable when he leads. Alvarez will likely want to counter, then. There is no single skillset in which Alvarez is most dangerous. His footwork, surprising power, and excellent timing make him very well suited to a counter punching game. As against Rafael Dos Anjos, however, this tack would be a risky one against McGregor. Remember, the featherweight champion is a pressure fighter, and attempting to counter him would grant him the style of fight in which he is most comfortable.

Still, it would be a mistake for Alvarez to pressure wildly from the beginning. He simply isn't defensively responsible when he advances behind combinations, and McGregor is a fast-starter, at his most dangerous in the early rounds. The idea, then, is to box and counter amidst a confusing array of unpredictable lateral movement. McGregor wants to pressure, but nobody wants to chase. The onus is on Alvarez to make him, and then make him pay.

1. As Alvarez retreats, Michael Chandler comes forward.

2. Eddie extends a jab to distract Chandler . . .

3. . . . and then slides back and to his right.

4. Chandler gives chase, and Alvarez prepares his trap.

5. As soon as Chandler commits to a hard forward step, Alvarez is ready with a counter right hand.

6. Both men miss their rights, but Alvarez is now in a good, off-line position to come back with a hook.

7. He does, and snaps Chandler's head back while pivoting to his left.

8. Knowing he still needs to escape his position against the fence, Alvarez jukes to the right . . .

9. . . . before stepping to the left, forcing Chandler to run after him once again.

Timing, like rhythm, can be a difficult concept to explore and explain--but this is a brilliant example of the idea at work. Because Alvarez is forcing Chandler to chase him in this sequence, he has some control over the initiative. In other words, Chandler is reacting to him rather than the other way around, and that means Eddie can set a trap. He does so by stepping away from Chandler's hand, forcing him to pursue in order to line it up. And then, expecting that very attack, Alvarez has a perfect pair of counters locked and loaded. Counter striking is more about anticipation than most realize. Waiting and guessing at one's openings is just too risky; in a sense, it gives the other guy control of the fight. Leading him through hoops and around bends, however, only to meet him with a two-piece at the end? That'll do.

Erratic lateral movement like this, layered with feints and the occasional counter punch, can be extremely frustrating for a pressure fighter. McGregor tends to threaten opponents with his reach and pace, but his cage-cutting is not especially impressive. In fact, many of his best tactics rely on the notion that his opponent will escape, at which point he will line up one of his specialized attacks. One such strike is McGregor's inside angle cross, which I have written about in the past. This punch catches many an opponent off guard, because McGregor lets it fly precisely when his opponent thinks he is safe. The target moves away from McGregor's left hand, stepping to the outside of his lead foot as they have been taught over the course of their entire camp, and McGregor reaches after them, using his reach to strike through at an angle that can't help but produce knockdowns.

Fortunately for Eddie, he is comfortable moving in both directions, and showed as much against Rafael Dos Anjos, using some clever footwork to line his aggressive opponent up for a vicious, knockout right hand.

Counters do not come only in the form of strikes, of course. Though Alvarez would not be well advised to blatantly tangle with McGregor's hips against the fence--this tactic having exhausted him visibly against Anthony Pettis--a few well-timed reactive takedowns could change the flavor of the fight dramatically. Not only would these takedowns allow Alvarez to steal time and wait out the lingering possibility that McGregor is only dangerous in the first two rounds, but they would further expand his striking arsenal. Layers of attack are important in MMA. It is one of this sport's most fundamental rules: he who transitions, wins.

So take a look at that same footwork-and-feint combo setting up a lovely shot.

1. Once again, Chandler stalks forward while Alvarez fights off the back foot.

2. Alvarez retreats slightly and circles to his right.

3. As Chandler follows, Alvarez times him with another right--but this one is only a feint.

4. Now Alvarez circles back to his left.

5. And Chandler tries to pin him in place with a combination. First the jab.

6. Alvarez dips under the throwaway right hand, at the same time stepping toward Chandler's right with his left foot.

7. Chandler fully commits to his last punch, but Alvarez is already deep on a level change.

8. And he gets in on Chandler's legs. Note the strong position of his right (power) leg near Chandler's left.

9. Alvarez drives, but Chandler manages to pivot away and feed the single leg.

10. Ultimately Chandler escapes.

Obviously, this is an example of a failed takedown, but the idea behind it is strong. Alvarez may be hittable, but he is not actually a bad defensive fighter, strictly speaking. It is when Alvarez comes forward, or plants his feet and throws unregulated combinations that he is vulnerable to clean shots. He seems to switch between defense and offense without ever really doing both at once. When his mind is set on defending, however, he is a fairly difficult man to hit. That defensive craft will be a powerful tool for Alvarez against McGregor, and help him transition from boxing exchanges to wrestling scrambles as in the sequence above.

I daresay that if the man in that example were named Mr. McGregor rather than Mr. Chandler, Eddie would have completed his takedown.

2. Box, THEN pressure

Of course, Alvarez cannot completely ignore McGregor's weakness to pressure. Whereas Alvarez likes to grab initiative by making his opponent chase, McGregor likes to force his opponent to do what he wants rather than merely compelling them. Pressure is one of the linchpins of McGregor's game, and thus the one tactic he is most vulnerable too. So after Alvarez starts the fight sticking and moving, feinting and countering, he ought to change tack halfway through. Wait for McGregor to tire, hurt him the process if possible, and only then press the stamina advantage with a little calculated aggression.

While it is true that Alvarez is at his most hittable when attacking, he is not altogether inexperienced in the world of pressure. Because he is an active feinter, Eddie can actually build some pretty impressive layers on the offense. Take this sequence from his bout with Anthony Pettis.

1. Alvarez comes forward, pawing with his left.

2. Anthony Pettis decides to put a stop to that, grabbing Alvarez by the wrist.

3. Next Pettis leans waaay in with a left hand, indicating that the gap is too wide for effective punching. It is Alvarez who learns that lesson, however, not Pettis.

4. Stepping back into the pocket, Alvarez feints nice and high with the jab.

5. Then feints the right hand . . .

6. . . . and rolls under a potential counter, playing it safe. This low position also gives Alvarez a good view of his opponent, and he notes that Pettis is open for the right.

7. Alvarez steps forward again, once more feinting the jab.

8. This time, the jab is followed by a level change.

9. As Pettis reacts, Alvarez takes the safe route once again, hopping back out of range. This time, however, he has a trick up his sleeve.

10. Alvarez bounces, as fighters often do when they know they are out of range.

11. But this bouncing hides a swift switch to the southpaw stance. Alvarez comes right back forward and flashes a right jab.

12. But only as a set-up for this cracking right hook.

The stance switch here is actually very clever, even if it isn't a tactic a coach would advise every fighter to do. In this sequence, you see, Anthony Pettis adopts a southpaw stance--the same stance that Conor McGregor will use on Saturday. This not only opens up the lane for Pettis' infamous liver kick; it puts his lead foot in front of Alvarez's, and likewise for the lead hands. The result is that Alvarez, unable to pass through solid objects, can no longer advance in a straight line without running into Pettis' leg and being subsequently punished.

His on-the-fly solution is solid. By switching to southpaw, Alvarez reopens the lane down the center, enabling him to advance straight forward and close the distance with an unexpected strike. The surprise is only enhanced by Alvarez's clever obfuscation. He gives Pettis a whole host of feints and threats to worry about before disguising the change of position in some fancy footwork.

By playing to his strengths early, Eddie Alvarez can maintain confidence and stamina--both invaluable resources in a fight with McGregor. But by adapting late and turning up the pressure, he can exploit the limitations of McGregor's style. As we saw in both of the Diaz fights, McGregor's vulnerability to pressure only worsens as the fight goes on.

1. Use the jab--liberally

Like his opponent, Eddie Alvarez is very reliant on his rear cross. For McGregor, it is the southpaw left, whereas Alvarez leans on the straight right. Unfortunately for the Philadelphian, that limitation is far more forgiving for southpaws than it is for plain old right-handers. It is the advantage of simple statistics: southpaws spend the vast majority of their training and fighting time against orthodox fighters, honing their lead lefts over time. Only the most prodigal orthodox fighters could ever hope to catch up. Then there is the matter of McGregor's reach. We spoke at length about the huge advantage offered by Conor's wingspan in Wednesday's McGregor gameplan, and that is an advantage that Alvarez wants to neutralize at all costs. Leading with his right makes virtually no sense in such a matchup, the right hand being the farthest weapon from the target, which will itself be farther away than Eddie is used to.

Essentially, Alvarez needs to revive the educated left hand that, in spots throughout his career, has been one of his most versatile weapons.

1. Michael Chandler pressures Alvarez.

2. In response to a jab, Alvarez slips inside.

3. And then pulls his head back, making sure to avoid any follow-up punches. When he notes that Chandler is squared up in front of him, however . . .

4. . . . he spears him with a long jab, taking an angular step as he connects.

5. And a second time.

6. Though he doesn't get anything else off, Alvarez ends up with a dramatic, extremely advantageous angle as a result of his pumping jabs.

7. True to form, he attempts to follow up with his trademark dart right. Chandler slips the punch . . .

8. . . . and the ensuing exchange gets a little messy, but neither man lands.

9. Stepping back from the brief tangle, Alvarez pumps another jab to get Chandler's attention.

10. Then he throws a right hand to the body.

11. Followed by a left hook.

12. Breaking away, Alvarez sees Chandler still determined to pursue.

13. And he runs him into one last jab, this a bastardized version of the same dart right he tried just moments before.

Increasing the frequency and variety of his jabs can only do Alvarez good. It will make it safer for him to lead, hiding his right hand. When he feints the left, as he always does, it will carry real threat once McGregor has felt the jab a few times. And it will serve as a desperately needed long distance weapon against an opponent who will attempt to keep Alvarez farther away than anyone has in years.

Whether he is countering, pressuring, or simply moving, the jab is an absolutely essential part of Alvarez's gameplan, and a tool without which he has very little hope of winning this fight.

As with the sequence before, there is some promising flow to be witnessed in this last sequence. If nothing else, this is a symptom of Alvarez's vast experience. When he gets a rhythm going, he can transition very naturally from range to range and from phase to phase. The difficulties for Alvarez in this fight are, broadly speaking, Conor McGregor's size, power, and early aggression. To survive, Alvarez needs to bolster that experience with a few small, subtle adjustments. Unfortunately for the former Bellator champ, it does feel like a perfect fight will be required to not only survive the first two rounds, but then to maintain the stamina and endurance to press McGregor where he is weakest.

Say one thing for Eddie Alvarez, though: he shows up. When it matters, he shows up big.

For an in-depth look at this entire matchup, as well as the welterweight title fight between Tyron Woodley and the welterweight scrap between Donald Cerrone and Kelvin Gastelum, check out the latest episode of Heavy Hands, the only podcast dedicated to the finer points of face-punching.