The rental market in the Denver area might be starting to show signs of stabilization after months of runaway growth.

“From a renter standpoint, it’s going to start looking better over this next year,” said Cary Bruteig of Apartment Insights LLC in Denver. “The rent growth should slow down. They may be able to get some concessions on new leases, and they’ll have more properties to choose from.”

The average rent for an apartment in the metro area in May was $1,309, up $129 from the average in May 2014, according to a report Wednesday from Axiometrics. Occupancy rates hovered just above 96 percent.

Only Oakland, Calif., and Portland, Ore., experienced faster rent growth than Denver during the same period, according to the Dallas-based firm, which tracks apartments in the 50 largest metro areas nationwide.

But the 11 percent year-over-year increase in May that was reported by Axiometrics was actually slower than it has been in recent months, down from 12.8 percent in February, the fastest annual increase since 2009, when Axiometrics started reporting monthly on the Denver market.

By year-end, rent growth in Denver is expected to slow to 6 percent, said Stephanie McCleskey, vice president of research for Axiometrics.

In the past month, some apartment communities have started to offer concessions and discounts again, particularly in areas where there has been a lot of construction, said Nancy Burke, vice president of government affairs for the Apartment Association of Metro Denver.

That’s a “big indicator” that the boom in new multifamily construction might finally be starting to have an impact on the market, she said.

“I don’t think it’s going to be overnight. I think it’s going to be a year or two down the road where it slowly stabilizes,” Burke said. “Things are definitely changing.”

The vacancy rates are showing signs of change, as well, if all the new units still in the initial leasing phase are included, Bruteig said.

In the first quarter, the overall vacancy rate for the metro area, including properties in the lease-up phase, was 8.9 percent, up from 7.9 percent a year ago, according to Apartment Insights data. In the Central Business District, the vacancy rate, including lease up, was more than 20 percent.

Bruteig estimates 11,000 new units will be completed by the end of the year. If rental rates are the same as last year, when 9,200 units came online, that will leave about 3,000 apartments open, he said.

There are roughly 300,000 apartments metrowide.

Ken Schroeppel, founder of DenverInfill.com and a planning and design instructor at the University of Colorado Denver, said by his analysis, there are more than 4,500 multi-family units under construction within just a 1.5-mile radius of the D&F Tower at 16th and Arapahoe.

“When those enter the market within the next year or so, I think that will be a real test to see how strong that demand is and if we’re finally catching up,” Schroeppel said.

Emilie Rusch: 303-954-2457, erusch@denverpost.com or twitter.com/emilierusch