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In any case, here are the key arguments that the media is citing to support this conclusion.

1. North Korea’s capital is in lockdown

Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital, has been reportedly locked down since Sept. 27. This lockdown is a general travel ban preventing anyone from entering or leaving the capital, although it also applies to citizens of the city.

In a coup scenario, the lockdown could either be an attempt to prevent possible defectors or coup plotters from fleeing the city after an unsuccessful attempt, or it could be a move by the putschists to impose order after successfully seizing control.

It is also possible that there’s no coup at all, and that the lockdown signals that something else is afoot, like a further purge of officials whom Kim finds disloyal.

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2. Kim Jong-Un has not been seen for over a month

Kim Jong-Un, the supreme leader of North Korea, has not been seen in public since the start of September. North Korean state media has chalked his absence up to health concerns. A video in July and another video in September showed Kim walking with a limp. It is also thought that the leader might be suffering from gout, due to his preference for strong alcohol and fatty food.

The rather heavyset Kim has also been spending an awful lot of time on his feet lately; one South Korean media report says the Supreme Leader has been undergoing surgery for resulting ankle fractures.

There’s at least one sign the health rumors might be causing confusion or unrest inside of North Korea, or that the country’s leadership realizes it may have a situation on its hands: On Sunday, senior North Korean officials reversed course and said there was no problem with Kim’s health.