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But according to the cold hard numbers of equalization, the only way Quebec could break this spiral would be to immediately launch into the most dizzying period of economic growth in modern Canadian history.

University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe is one of Canada’s leading experts on the equalization program. According to his calculations, to become a “have” province Quebec would need to swell its economy by roughly one third.

Quebec’s GDP per capita, currently standing at about $47,500, would have to rise to $60,000. Even at China-sized rates of economic growth, this could take upwards of 10 years. It would require Quebec to undergo a Klondike Gold Rush-sized economic boom roughly every few months.

Photo by Library and Archives Canada

Ben Eisen, a senior fellow at the libertarian-minded Fraser Institute, expressed doubts that Quebec could ever hope to achieve “zero equalization” within the course of a single government. “I still think it is a useful aspirational long-term goal,” he wrote in a note to the National Post.

A more realistic timeline is that Quebec’s economy would have to noticeably outgrow Canada’s economy for at least 20 years — a feat that would still be “quite something,” according to Eisen.

In fact, they’re already behind: Despite a booming GDP growth of 3.1 per cent in 2017, Quebec still lagged behind the Canadian average of 3.3 per cent — fuelled largely by massive expansion in B.C. and Alberta.

A common gripe from Alberta (a disproportionate contributor to equalization) is that Quebec could break its equalization dependency by simply doing like Westerners and exploiting their natural resources.