Even without the Berejiklian government's political problems, the Coalition is going to suffer losses in the upper house because its 11 positions up for re-election were won in 2011 during the Barry O'Farrell landslide.

On the flip side, Labor should gain seats because it only won five spots that election as voters delivered the party its worst result in 100 years.

Personality and policy splits

But with voters disaffected with both major parties, and the third force in the Greens wracked by personality and policy splits, the other minors are poised to sweep in, particularly those on the right.

Political consultant Glenn Druery, who is offering unpaid advice to a number of minor parties, said he expected One Nation and the Shooters to get three seats between them, two to the Greens and the Coalition and Labor seven or eight each, leaving the last seat up for grabs.

"What is going to happen is the upper house is very likely to be controlled by the right and centre right," he said.

Mr Latham, who is making a political comeback 15 years after leaving federal politics, was unveiled as One Nation's star recruit after flirting with the Liberal Democrats.

Opinion polls put One Nation's support at between 5.5 per cent and 8 per cent, raising the possibility Mr Latham's running mate, former policeman Rod Roberts, could also be pulled over the line.


With the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party expanding its presence and presenting as a viable alternative in the bush to the Nationals, its chairman Mark Banasiak will be elected after rolling incumbent MP Robert Brown for preselection.

Voter confusion

At risk of being squeezed out is Christian Democrat Paul Green, who with party leader and NSW's longest-serving MP Fred Nile has been generally supportive of the Coalition. Mr Nile's term is up in 2023.

Liberal Democrat David Leyonhjelm, who has switched from the Senate to state politics, is the other viable right-wing candidate but may not benefit as much from voter confusion over his party's name as he has in the past because he is listed to the right of the Liberal/National ticket on the ballot paper.

On the left, infighting between its environmental and socialist hard-left factions has left the Greens in chaos. One sitting MLC, Jeremy Buckingham, is seeking re-election as an independent after quitting over claims he sexually harassed a Greens staffer. Mr Buckingham has denied the claims and an independent investigation could not substantiate the allegation.

The turmoil could benefit the Animal Justice Party and Keep Sydney Open, which hopes to harness anger over the city's lock out laws which have dulled its night life.