How Obama's first 100 days stack up the FIRST 100 DAYS

Inauguration_ph19.JPG January 19, 1981 - President elect Ronald Reagan breaks up as his wife, Nancy, doubles over in laughter during comedian Rich Little's performance at the inaugural gala honoring the Reagans. less Inauguration_ph19.JPG January 19, 1981 - President elect Ronald Reagan breaks up as his wife, Nancy, doubles over in laughter during comedian Rich Little's performance at the inaugural gala honoring the ... more Photo: UPI Photo: UPI Image 1 of / 7 Caption Close How Obama's first 100 days stack up 1 / 7 Back to Gallery

Historians agree on one thing when it comes to evaluating a president's first 100 days: The exercise is an artificial, often superficial construct. It's too short of a time to seriously measure anything substantive about a presidency, and not an indicator of future success.

Look closely, however, said Russell Riley, chair of the Presidential Oral History Program at the University of Virginia, and you'll see that a president's first 100 days often contain the seeds of something that will bloom - or haunt him - later in his presidency. As President Obama's fans gloat about his healthy approval ratings at the 100-day mark, Stephen Knott, an associate professor of national security studies at the United States Naval War College, cautions that former President George W. Bush had a 58 percent approval rating after 100 days in office - and that plummeted over time to record lows.

The seed that could haunt Obama's presidency and derail his ambitious agenda could be an investigation of torture techniques used on terrorism suspects during the Bush administration, analysts said.

"If the country is focused on the Bush torture program all summer it is going to be a huge distraction," said Larry Berman, a professor of political science at UC Davis who teaches a course on Obama's first 100 days. "The people who don't realize this, I think, are the people who supported Obama from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party."

Here is an overview of highlights and lowlights of the early days in office of recent administrations.

Successes

-- Benefited from release of U.S. hostages held in Iran for 444 days - as he was being inaugurated.

-- Former actor used TV addresses to rally Americans to urge Congress to push massive tax cut legislation through Congress - past a Democratic House majority.

-- Hit the ground running with smooth-running transition team and simple agenda: Cut taxes, increase military spending, improve U.S. reputation abroad.

Challenges

-- Transformed image after showing grace and strength after assassination attempt on 70th day of presidency. ("Please tell me you're Republicans," he quipped to doctors treating him.) Poll numbers jumped double-digits. Without being able to peel off Democratic support in the ensuing months, "there would have been no Reaganomics," Stephen Knott said.

-- Didn't sign first legislation until March 31 - day after he was shot.

Fumbles

-- Internal battle between administration's military and budget leaders went public. "It was a remarkably leak-prone presidency," Knott said. "And that contributed to the image of Reagan as a puppet of his advisers."

Bottom line

-- Gallup Poll approval average over 100-day period: 60 percent. (Historical average for presidents since 1953: 63 percent)

Successes

-- Promised a "kinder, gentler America" - a popular but none-too-subtle rip "that caused a tremendous amount of bitterness" among Reaganites, Knott said, many of whom were still serving in his administration.

-- Proposed a plan to help crippled savings and loan institutions.

Challenges

-- An unambitious agenda. It's hard to even contemplate what was going on in his 100 days, because it was more like the ninth year of the Reagan presidency. Said Bush: "I don't even think in terms of 100 days, because we aren't radically shifting things."

Fumbles

-- "Kinder, gentler America" fades after battle over failed nomination of Sen. John Tower as defense secretary "poisoned the atmosphere in Washington for a long time," said University of Pennsylvania Professor Al Felzenberg. Tower's replacement: Dick Cheney, positioning Cheney for a more influential role in President George W. Bush's administration as an architect of Iraq war.

Bottom line

-- Gallup Poll approval average over 100-day period: 57 percent.

Successes

-- Passed Family and Medical Leave Act, which allowed workers at larger firms to take unpaid leave because of pregnancy or medical conditions.

-- Though criticized for failure to get economic stimulus plan through Congress, Riley said: "The heavy lifting done then would prove advantageous for the economy in later years."

Challenges

-- World Trade Center bombed, killing six and injuring more than 1,000.

-- Long standoff with Branch Davidians in Waco, Texas, ends with death of more than 80 people.

Fumbles

-- First two choices to be attorney general - Zoe Baird and Kimba Wood - withdrew their nominations because of illegal household help issues. "He had a bad 100 days, there is no way to sugarcoat it," Riley said.

-- Controversy over "don't ask, don't tell" policy concerning gays in the military drained political capital.

-- Drew partisan fire by appointing first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton to head health care initiative. Failed health care plan contributed to GOP congressional takeover in 1994.

Bottom line

-- Gallup Poll approval average over 100-day period: 55 percent.

George W. Bush

Successes

-- Though he came into office with legitimacy issues after losing the popular vote during a contested election, he quickly established himself to the point where approval ratings remained steady initially, said Gerhard Peters, professor of politics at Citrus College and director of the American Presidency Project at UC Santa Barbara.

-- Began faith-based initiative to appeal to religious conservatives that got him into office - which also inflamed partisan tensions.

-- Proposed largest tax cut in two decades.

Challenges

-- U.S. surveillance plane downed in China, crew detained. Administration gets plaudits for negotiating release after 11-day standoff.

-- "No Child Left Behind" education reform proposed with endorsement of liberal Sen. Edward Kennedy and Rep. George Miller, D-Martinez. Measure later widely panned by educators, Democrats.

Fumbles

-- Declined to participate in Kyoto Treaty on climate change, foreshadowing his administration's view of environment and its unilateralist approach to international issues.

-- Though national security team (Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary of State Colin Powell, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice) was hailed at the time for experience, it would lead country into a poorly planned occupation of Iraq.

Bottom line

-- Gallup Poll approval average over 100-day period: 58 percent.

Successes

-- Only two presidents - Abraham Lincoln and Franklin D. Roosevelt - have come into office with greater challenges, Riley said. "So you have to grade him like you grade Olympic divers - you look at his degree of difficulty. And it is high."

-- "I think he's had as good a 100 days as you can, until" the Bush-era torture memos were released, Berman said. If the country continues to focus on the torture issue, "that would damage a lot of the goodwill he's built up because it would lead to congressional deadlock."

-- Passed a $787 billion stimulus plan, the Ledbetter law requiring equal pay for women and expanded health care benefits for children.

-- Ordered closing of Guantanamo Bay facility, drawdown of troops in Iraq.

-- Praised for decisive handling of pirate hostage situation off coast of Africa.

Challenges

-- "His stand on Afghanistan bears watching," Riley said. "But it's not being paid attention to right now because of the economy."

Fumbles

-- "Poor vetting" of high-level Cabinet candidates - Tom Daschle, Bill Richardson - led to setbacks, loss of high-quality leaders, Berman said.

-- Fuzzy position on whether to prosecute Bush-era figures responsible for torture. "The American people are extremely forgiving but they don't respond well to what they perceive as flip-flopping," Knott said.

Bottom line

-- Gallup Poll approval average over 100-day period: 63 percent.

Sources: Larry Berman, professor of political science at UC Davis, who teaches a course on Obama's first 100 days in office. Stephen Knott, an associate professor of national security studies and a presidential scholar at the United States Naval War College. His second book about Reagan is to be published next month. Russell Riley is chairman of the Presidential Oral History Program at the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Al Felzenberg is a professor of communication at the University of Pennsylvania and author of "The Leaders We Deserved (and a Few We Didn't): Rethinking the Presidential Rating Game." Gerhard Peters, professor of politics at Citrus College and director of the American Presidency Project at UC Santa Barbara.