As the average cost of a Toronto-area home climbed 20 per cent in September over the same month last year, the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) promised to closely monitor new mortgage rules introduced on Monday.

The changes announced by Finance Minister Bill Morneau include a “stress test” on all new insured mortgages and stricter tax exemption laws for real estate. They are aimed at preventing consumers from taking on too much debt, but are also designed to inject some calm onto the country's hottest housing markets.

That includes Toronto, where, inside the city limits, the cost of a detached house averaged $1.3 million last month, according to TREB figures released on Wednesday.

But it will be at least the end of the year before it's known what, if any impact, Ottawa's announcement has, said TREB's director of market analysis.

"Any time you're seeing policies that could influence the demand, there's a few different ways it could play out,” said Jason Mercer. “In the past, we've seen a mix where some households may take a step back and temporarily reassess their situation, others may look at different housing types or different areas to purchase a home.”

And for some, it won’t affect their decisions at all. “They'll continue on as they have," he said.

A TREB news release notes that the effect of the demand for housing is amplified significantly in the Toronto region by the lack of supply, something the government measures won't necessarily address.

In fact, despite a shortage of new listings, the number of September sales rose 21.5 per cent to 9,902 transactions compared to the same month last year.

The only housing category with declining sales was semi-detached homes in the city. Those dropped 3.5 per cent due to a lack of listings and detached home sales in Toronto were well below the regional average, with only a 4.7 per cent increase.

The average home price in the region in September was $755,755, up from $627,867 a year ago. That includes condos. In Toronto, the average price was $764,872 compared to $750,549 in the 905 communities.

The average condo price across the region was $422,002, with city apartments selling for $334,294 on average, about $80,000 more than units in the regions outside Toronto.

Under the new federal rules, starting Oct. 17 all insured mortgage holders will have to qualify at the five-year Bank of Canada rate, a condition that was previously only applied to those with shorter fixed or variable terms.

Later in the fall, Ottawa plans to increase the insurance criteria on mortgages for 80 per cent or less of the property’s value.

The new rules won’t apply to current mortgages and owners renewing their loans.

Responding to concerns about the role of off-shore investment in pushing prices in the scorching Vancouver and Toronto markets, Morneau is also removing a tax exemption for foreign owners.

The changes to mortgage rules and capital gains taxes for foreign buyers probably won't halt the upward trends of the Toronto market because there are so many factors that make the region attractive, said Philip Brown, broker of record with Keller Williams Neighbourhood Realty.

When it comes to indicators of economic health and stability such as population growth and a diverse economic and industrial base, "Toronto is unique to any other city in Canada in that it ticks all of those boxes," he said.

A lot of the activity that drove the real estate fervour in Vancouver was based on it being an attractive investment, said Brown.

"Toronto offers people a really safe place to put their money, it gives them all the things in an area that would want you to move there or to hold onto real estate there, rather than seeing it as a speculative flip," he said.

For the same reason, Toronto's condo market has continued to thrive when for years people predicted its crash, said Brown.

As well as investors, condos have attracted first- and second-time buyers who have chosen townhomes and condos as an alternative to moving away from their preferred location.

"It just moved people that are making their buying choices based on lifestyle, rather than budget, to take up all of the excess capacity in the condo area," he said.

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With files from Sunny Freeman