There is a whole lot of fear mongering right now among the worst NFL fanbases across the league. For the Miami Dolphins, the fear is that this team will fail to successfully acquire their preferred target at quarterback — and the pathway to that failure is to not acquire the 1st-overall selection in the 2020 NFL Draft. Naturally, the inclination is to assume the worst in this fan base — and why not. The football gods have not been kind to the Miami Dolphins over the course of the last two decades, why would their fortunes turn around now?

Rest easy, Dolphins fans. At least for now. Because while Miami is not the only winless NFL team to this point in the season and three more one-loss teams are bearing down their backs, the fact of the matter is Miami is still the overwhelming favorite in the clubhouse. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has simulated the remaining games of this NFL season 10,000 times and the Miami Dolphins hold a 70% chance to walk away from the year with the worst record in football. As a matter of fact, the Dolphins are projected to finish with the worst record all by themselves — the current projections position the Dolphins at 2-14, while the Cincinnati Bengals are projected to finish 3-13.

And while the Dolphins have a 70% chance to finish with the top pick, the Bengals are in second with just 17.6% odds.

Last week, Miami’s odds sat at 73.5% and the Bengals were given a 15.4% chance. So yes, the standings right now are quite messy and can be unsettling for Dolphins fans. But taking this one week at a time, the Dolphins are still sitting pretty to get their pick of the litter for the 2020 NFL Draft.