On August 31, the Thursday of the first week of the regular season, Bovada updated its Heisman Trophy odds.

The Pac-12 had four contenders:

USC’s Sam Darnold: 9/2

Washington’s Jake Browning: 18/1

UCLA’s Josh Rosen: 25/1

Washington State’s Luke Falk: 33/1

Stanford’s Bryce Love wasn’t on Bovada’s 21-player board.

Arizona’s Khalil Tate: Who?

Yet by season’s end, Love and Tate were the only west coast players in the discussion. (Love finished second to Baker Mayfield; Tate wasn’t a top-10 finisher.)

That unexpected development was, in a sense, entirely predictable: It followed the same arc as several recent Heisman journey from the west coast to Manhattan.

Prior to the 2015 season, Cal quarterback Jared Goff was the conference’s top candidate. Christian McCaffrey, who would finish second, wasn’t so much as a third-tier candidate.

Prior to the 2016 season, McCaffrey and Rosen were the Pac-12’s top candidates. Browning, who would finish sixth, wasn’t a reasonable consideration (or even an unreasonable one).

The 2017 season played out in similar fashion:

None of the four conference’s four contending quarterbacks finished in the top 10, while Love, a first-year starter, dominated the spotlight and Tate, a first-week non-starter, swiped a month’s worth of attention.

As we look to ’18, the conference has a handful of clear frontrunners: Love, Tate and Darnold, with a nod to Browning, as well.

(I’m assuming, for the purposes of this exercise, that Rosen turns pro. Darnold and Love may, as well. But Rosen seems far more likely than not to depart.)

But if 2018 plays out like 2017 and 2016 and 2015, the Pac-12’s top Heisman candidate is not currently considered a top candidate.

Here are the Hotline’s favorites to become the favorite:

1. Oregon QB Justin Herbert.

Might have entered the Heisman discussion in ’17 if not for the broken collarbone but, as a result, is perfectly positioned: Poised for a huge season behind four returning starters on the offensive line but free of the pressure and hype that will accompany Love, Tate and Darnold through the offseason.

The Ducks’ cupcake non-conference schedule won’t provide an early showcase opportunity, but Herbert’s numbers should prop up the campaign until Pac-12 play provides the necessary lift.

Were I to bet a nickel on one player from the west coast to receive an invitation, Herbert would be the pick.

2. USC TB Ronald Jones.

Trojan tailbacks, like Trojan quarterbacks, have an inherent advantage in Heisman campaigns, courtesy of the seven previous winners.

Jones has rushed for 1,486 yards this season — enough to carve his own identity in the same backfield as Darnold.

If the latter turns pro, the spotlight shifts to Jones. If Darnold stays, the attention diminishes but the Trojans are better positioned to execute offensively.

What Jones needs: Darnold to return and the coaching staff to recalibrate the offense, with the running game taking on greater significance.

3. Washington TB Myles Gaskin.

Having another first-rate but attention-free season (1,282 yards). That trajectory will change in September if he produces a breakout season-opener against Auburn in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

With three starters expected to return up front, the Husky offense seems well-suited for Gaskin to play a role fit for the national stage:

It’s well-managed and efficient with Browning in charge but not overly reliant on the aerial game.

4. Stanford QB K.J. Costello.

No program in the west, including USC, has done a better job recently of producing Heisman candidates than Stanford — five runner-up finishes in nine years — and in four instances (Toby Gerhart, Andrew Luck I, McCaffrey and Love), it was a dark-horse campaign. Related Articles Saturday Night Five: My Heisman ballot, Oregon picks Cristobal, the surprising COY vote, Wilcox stays put, Riley heads home

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Costello gained the requisite experience over the second half of the season, and produced enough big plays, to lay the foundation for a legitimate campaign.

Yes, he’d have to escape Love’s shadow. But as we saw with McCaffrey in ’16, repeat campaigns can be easily derailed.

5. Arizona State WR N’Keal Harry.

Huge talent who averaged 13.7 yards per reception as a freshman and has the speed and size (6-foot-4) to become an unstoppable playmaker on the perimeter … if the Sun Devils become more efficient in the passing game with senior-to-be Manny Wilkins.

The Heisman is a difficult journey for receivers, however: Michigan’s Desmond Howard, in 1991, was the last wideout to win it.

That backdrop, not talent, explains Harry’s position on this list.

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