Vote allowing president to run for fifth or even sixth term likely to be rescheduled

Russia may be forced to put off a public vote on amendments allowing Vladimir Putin to hold office potentially until 2036 as the coronavirus threatens to upend a busy political season in Russia.

The Kremlin so far has not rescheduled the 22 April vote that was intended as a public endorsement for Putin’s surprise plan to “reset” his term limits, allowing him to run for a fifth or even sixth term as president under a revised constitution.

But as Moscow and other Russian cities introduce stricter preventative measures against the coronavirus, election officials have discussed the possibility of home voting or other ways to pull off a nationwide plebiscite in a country of 140 million when health officials desperately want to reduce face-to-face contact.

“The vote is set for 22 April, but the health of the country’s citizens is most important,” said Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov. “If the growth of the epidemiological situation gives cause to reschedule then it will be done.”

On Monday the business daily Vedomosti reported the vote was likely to be rescheduled to June because of fears of the disease spreading in Russia. The decision would probably be announced this week, the newspaper said, citing three sources in the presidential administration. One of the sources said the vote as scheduled could coincide with the projected peak for the number of coronavirus cases in Russia.

The spread of the disease could also threaten Russia’s celebration of the 75th anniversary of Victory Day on 9 May, which the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and the US national security adviser, Robert O’Brien, have pledged to attend. The event serves as both a memorial to second world war veterans and as a showcase for Russian military hardware, including aircraft and intercontinental ballistic missile carriers. Russia has already cancelled the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, an important business conference scheduled for June.

Russian officials announced on Monday that they had identified 71 new cases of the disease, bringing the country’s total to 438. Of the known cases, 262 are in Moscow. The country has closed its borders to most foreigners and Moscow’s mayor has announced a new mandatory self-isolation for people over the age of 65 until 16 April, a week before the vote is scheduled to take place.

The coronavirus pandemic has coincided with one of the most consequential political seasons in Russia since 2014, as Putin laid the groundwork this month to potentially becoming the longest-serving ruler since the tsars, outdoing Stalin. Analysts say Putin may not be inclined to serve for another 12 years as president, but needs to leave the option open to avoid becoming a lame duck.

The Moscow-based Centre for Current Policy thinktank said in a note on the effects of coronavirus that a delay of the vote could “negatively affect the perception of government efficiency”.

While the vote is not a referendum and does not have any legal power, it is seen as an endorsement of Putin’s leadership. A delay of the reforms to the constitution, including the amendment on terms limits, could “create the feeling of a dangerous vacuum”, the thinktank wrote.

Public health measures have also had a chilling effect on protests against Putin’s political manoeuvres, with the Moscow government banning public events with more than 50 people present.