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Nationally, the NDP is polling at a little under 12 per cent – eight points below where they were when thrashed in the Oct. 19 election. But it’s the poll numbers from Quebec, the epicentre of the “Orange Crush” that propelled the NDP to second place in the 2011 election, that must be particularly galling – if not downright frightening – for those who presumed support for a traditionally left of centre federal party was part of la belle province’s political DNA. At 15.5 per cent support in Quebec the NDP is in a dead heat with the federal Conservatives, nearly five points behind the Bloc Quebecois and a staggering 27 points behind the Liberals.

Perhaps a new leader or clearer message might turn those numbers around. But another possibility the NDP may have to consider a week from today is that its political luck – be it in having had leaders like Jack Layton and adversaries like Stephen Harper – has finally run out. Certainly the latest numbers from Quebec – the NDP’s supposed launch pad on the road to government – suggest support in this province for the NDP was, for a while, 100 miles wide but never more than an inch deep – and lest we forget, this was supposed to be the party’s stronghold.

Despite its committee’s recommendations for reform and renewal, the NDP’s pitiful showing here in Quebec and elsewhere in the country suggest it may well be on its way to staking out a claim on the fringe of Canadian politics long before the next election. And that, far more than Mulcair’s leadership, should be cause for serious concern.

Because once it sinks in that the NDP’s grip on political irrelevance seems assured, it really won’t matter who’s in charge.

Montreal Gazette news columnist James Mennie can be heard weekdays at 4:35 p.m. on the Aaron Rand Show on CJAD 800.