<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/in-fani_12.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/in-fani_12.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273 400w, https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/in-fani_12.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551 800w" > File photo of rough sea conditions caused by Cyclone Fani over the Bay of Bengal in Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh. (N Kanaka/BCCL, Visakhapatnam)

A low-pressure area—where the air pressure is lower than the surrounding, leading to a stronger cyclonic circulation—is forecast to form over the south Andaman Sea towards the end of April.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed the forecast on Sunday’s weather bulletin, adding that the low-pressure area would form around April 30 and is very likely to intensify further during the subsequent 48 hours. The system is forecast to move north-northwestwards and then curve towards north-northeastwards from April 30 to May 3.

If intensifies, the storm could move towards the east coast of India and could be the first cyclone of the 2020 North Indian Ocean cyclone season.

Currently, a wind convergence along the Indo-Gangetic plain and the moisture incursion from the Bay of Bengal has brought active thundershowers over eastern and northeastern India. The wet weather is likely to prevail over the next four days with the possibility of isolated heavy rain spells, hail storms and gusty winds.

Only the GFS model, used by IMD, has predicted that the low-pressure area will become noticeable at the end of April or early May around Nicobar Island and progress northward while developing. Experts say that it is too early to predict whether the system will intensify into a cyclone. The prediction confidence is low right now, and there is no agreement among models at this moment.

However, the IMD has forecast squally winds with speed reaching up to 50 kmph over the Andaman Sea, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the East Bay of Bengal from April 30 and May 3. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough over Sumatra coast, Andaman Sea and adjoining east and the southeast Bay of Bengal, starting April 30. Fishers are advised not to venture into these areas.

If the system intensifies into a cyclone, it will be named Amphan, as per the naming guidelines set by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The name Amphan is suggested by Thailand and will be the last name from the original naming list for cyclones over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal published in 2004. WMO guidelines stipulate that the countries in the region must name storms in any ocean basin. For the north Indian Ocean, eight countries suggest the names, including India.

In 2019, the Indian Seas witnessed eight cyclonic storms as against the normal of five. It was only in 1976, that more than seven cyclones formed over the north Indian Ocean, making 2019 a rare exception.

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