Attack of the Spread – Week 11 Mike Stroeh

I’m not always wrong about NFL lines, but when I am, it’s about the Kansas City Chiefs. Granted, I’m not alone, especially this week. Nobody in their right mind would have expected the inept Chiefs to not only hold their first lead of the season, but to take the red-hot Steelers to overtime. Granted, once we got to the extra period, Matt Cassel reverted to his true form and threw a game-sealing interception, but the overall effort was there. Of course, it didn’t hurt that he game was played in a monsoon, or that the Chiefs nearly killed Ben Roethlisberger and then danced about it.

Amazingly, that wasn’t even their dumbest taunting penalty of the night. Good job, KC, you’ve given us all hope that there’s always a new level of embarrassing that can be reached.

This week’s Tim Bits:

If only every team got to play that lame fourth-place schedule. The Colts have the 6th or 7th best record in the NFL. The Colts? Yeah, well, they got to play the Titans, Jags, Jets and Browns and the tough games remaining are the Patriots, Lions and the Texans (who will have clinched the #1 seed by week 13) twice. In pro football, good coaching and hot teams are always able to beat terrible teams and due to the head office’s scheduling genius, every franchise rotates taking turns beating, or being, those rotten teams. An entertaining season so far – how can it not be when you get a tie?! Yeah, man, I love the tie. We need more of them. I think college football should play two overtimes and then just stop with a tie. The NFL is far more interesting when the playoff calculations involve comparing teams that are 6-2, 6-3 and 6-2-1. Awesome sauce!

Miami at Buffalo – Line: Buffalo by 1

Tim’s change: Miami by 3

Buffalo plays just good enough to lose by 7-10 every week and Miami only plays well on the road. Hard to figure out which teams will show up to play in this one: do I take the Miami team that has surprised me all season or the team that played against the Titans? The former. I think I will go ahead and predict that Andy Reid will be the coach of the Bills next season – it makes sense to me. He likes the cold, needs a change, has the pedigree and there’s no way the centurion Ralph Wilson will let this disaster continue beyond January. I think Buffalo gets a head start of firing Chan Gailey by losing again, an embarrassing home long to the Dolphins that relegates the Bills to the AFC East cellar.

Mike’s change: Buffalo by 4

Buffalo hung tough with a New England team that was just dying to give that game away. Until their quarterback Fitzpatrick’d all over himself, they were driving to take the lead at the end of the 4th quarter. Meanwhile, Miami got positively smoked, at home, by a Tennessee team that was playing for their collective jobs. The shine is starting to come off the Ryan Tannehill experiment just a bit. Buffalo is far from a good team, but even in their current state they’re better than Tennessee. If somebody can free Tarvaris Jackson from the Negative Zone by game time, I’d bump this up to 6.

Arizona at Atlanta – Line: Atlanta by 10

Tim’s change: Atlanta by 8

Atlanta might want to explode for some revenge after losing their first game, especially in the Saints game where they had first and goal from the 1 in the final 2 minutes and let it slip away. Is this Falcons team the type of squad who can destroy someone? I don’t know – Ryan can throw for 333 yards and still lose a 21-17 game (see Palmer, Carson) so the yards are meaningless. This has the feel of a trap game, with two divisional games following for Atlanta, but can Arizona capitalize on that? Last in rushing, middle of the pack passing and riding a 5-game losing streak where they haven’t broken 20 points – not a recipe to succeed. Seems unlikely that the Cards can keep pace on offense but their defense keeps them in close games and they must try to push the Falcons around physically.

Mike’s change: Atlanta by 3

It’s quite possible that Atlanta will come out in this game and put a royal whuppin’ on the plummeting Falcons, to get everyone back on their bandwagon after they choked away the game against the Saints last week. Unfortunately for them, Arizona’s defense is still pretty good, and has the kind of players to shut down Julio Jones and Roddy White. I don’t see another round of Weekend at Michael Turner’s doing much to move the needle either. For Arizona, is Kevin Kolb back in the lineup yet? He may be itching to reclaim the “most cringe inducing rib injury” mantle back from Big Ben, and Arizona’s crappy offensive line will be all too eager to oblige.

Cleveland at Dallas – Line: Dallas by 7 ½

Tim’s change: Dallas by 5

The Cowboys have a trap game, a previous divisional game and two more after Cleveland leaves town, I don’t think they will enjoyable a significant bump from beating an overrated and schizoid Eagles team. This is the same that lost late to Atlanta and 4 games out of 5. The Browns, without any receivers, have somehow managed a middle of the road and improving passing game. Is it possible Wheeden isn’t terrible? Certainly. Will they win in Dallas? I kinda doubt it. If Dallas still can’t run this is a close game regardless.

Mike’s change: Dallas by 9

Let the building of false hope commence. Dallas’s November surge is almost as much of an annual tradition as the Giants’ swoon. The Cowboys will rattle off a series of deceptively competent games to get back into the division race, only to find some boneheaded way to blow it in the last two weeks. Last week’s win over Philadelphia was nothing to be overly proud of, since half of it came against the deer in the headlight stylings of Nick Foles. Cleveland might be able to keep from getting blown out of this game if Trent Richardson is reasonably healthy, but Brandon Wheeden should not be favored to keep a deficit in the Jerry Dome in single digits.

Green Bay at Detroit – Line: Green Bay by 3 ½

Tim’s change: Green Bay by 6

The Packers had a week off; the Lions played like they did against the Vikings. I am no longer wasting time thinking the Lions will play up to their potential on either side of the ball. The Packers need only show up with some real offense and this game should be theirs. Coupled with the Bears loss to the Texans and the MNF game at San Francisco this week, as well as a possible Cutler injury, now is when the Packers begin their move to win the NFC North crown again. Lay a touchdown – the Lions won’t stop Rodgers and I expect to see Cobb and Nelson in the end zone on more than one occasion.

Mike’s change: Green Bay by 10

Are we all done pretending Detroit is good? Whew, thank God. Minnesota’s beating of them should have silenced the last few voices, especially when their defense made Christian Ponder look like an NFL quarterback again after he’d spent the past month doing his best Sage Rosenfels impression. Green Bay is coming off a bye week, where they managed to only lose one major offensive starter to injury for the season. That’s a banner week for them anymore. Detroit finally figuring out how to run the ball marginally well could help them stay in this game for a while, but a rested Green Bay team should be able to put four quarters of solid football together and win this going away. It won’t hurt that they can smell blood in the water with the Jay Cutler injury in Chicago.

Cincinnati at Kansas City – Line: Cincinnati by 3 ½

Tim’s change: Cincinnati by 7

The Bengals made the Giants look like a ridiculous team. The Chiefs … look like a ridiculous team that will fire their GM, coach, coordinators, let either Charles or Hillis go and find the best free agent to start at QB next season. I don’t know who will be the Game 1 starter in 2013 for KC, but it ain’t gonna be Matt Cassel. Collin Klein? Come on down! This win could announce the Bengals are actually on the heels of the WC hunt. The Chiefs will score 10 points, maybe 13 if they get frisky. All the Bengals need to do is beat that and they will with Dalton and Company. Don’t let the Chiefs tight game against the Steelers fool you – almost everything went their way and the best they could do was convert a long 4th down to kick a tying FG and force OT. Go Bengals

Mike’s change: Cincinnati by 12

I’m actually looking forward to this game to an unhealthy degree. Not because of the football itself, which will likely be dreadful. No, this could be the most openly hostile home crowd since half of Arrowhead was full of Steelers fans. This is the week that the Save Our Chiefs campaign has targeted for their “Blackout Arrowhead” protest against the ineptitude of GM Scott Pioli, coach / small planet Romeo Crennel, and absentee owner Clark Hunt. In fitting Chiefs fashion, there’s even a dispute between Crennel and sort-of-QB Brady Quinn over whether or not Quinn has been cleared to play after suffering a concussion. Honestly the Chiefs would be better off throwing Ricky Stanzi to the wolves in this game than sending nice guy (but terrible QB) Matt Cassel out to face the mob this week. This line is no reflection on whether I think the Bengals are good (I don’t), and more about the dumpster fire that is the KC Chiefs season.

Philadelphia at Washington – Line: Washington by 3

Tim’s change: Washington by 7

Note: Line moved from 1 to 3 for Washington due to the Vick injury

Philadelphia will, probably, be without Vick and his concussion – I have no idea if that is good or bad but I do know that some of Foles’ throws last week against Dallas wouldn’t be good enough for a high school game. The Eagles are headed right for a fourth-place NFC East finish. Philadelphia is middle of the road in every category on offense, doing everything, but nothing well or impressively. Washington is coming off the break and will face a rookie QB at home. I think the betting line will fly up with the news of Vick’s absence, regardless of merit, and the home side and Bobby TripleStix will move closer to .500.

Mike’s change: Washington by 1 ½

In a battle to see which coach has done more damage to his reputation in the past three years, I give the slight edge to Andy Reid, only because there really were no expectations for the Redskins for the past two years. RGIII has been a nice story this year, but between injuries and a lack of any major offensive weapons, he can only do so much single-handedly before he gets planted like Michael Vick did last week. Fortunately for Philadelphia, the dawn of the Nick Foles era couldn’t come against a worse defense, unless it had happened two weeks ago prior to the Saints game. Despite Reid’s aversion to the running game, I expect a healthy dose of LeSean McCoy in this game to make up for his woefully unprepared QB, which the Redskins will have little answer for.

Tampa Bay at Carolina – Line: Tampa by 1 ½

Tim’s Change: Tampa by 4

I don’t know how anyone can watch the Panthers’ performance against Denver last week and pick them to beat any team north of Kansas State of Oregon, which is odd because they were keeping things close up until that point. Tampa has played better offense than almost any time in franchise history since Jack Thompson. In a game that defines which team will finish last in the division, I think the Bucs will show the Panthers the door. I like Tampa by even more but I’m going to keep this one close.

Mike’s change: Tampa by 9

I hate to pick Tampa to win big, because it negates any potential batshit insane stuff that coach Greg Schiano might pull at the end of games. That said, Carolina is a pathetic defensive team going up against the suddenly unstoppable Bucs juggernaut. It will be fun to watch Doug Martin and his rookie contract run for hundreds of yards while the insanely expensive Carolina backfield does nothing at all. Cam Newton will be pouting by the middle of the second quarter, running for his life and throwing darts at his receivers’ feet. Tampa is a fringe playoff contender at this point, and I expect them to further solidify that here.

Jacksonville at Houston – Line: Houston by 16

Tim’s change: Houston by 10

When teams play one another twice in one season both games are almost never both a blowout. The Texans blew out Jax in week 2 and, coming off the short week, I can see a small letdown. They have more than enough to win without trying and the Jags are showing hardly anything. Still, I’m not gonna throw a 20 point spread at this game. I’ll take Houston with ease, but in a sleepwalk game similar to the Buffalo game two weeks ago that finished 21-9.

Mike’s change: Houston by 19

To be honest, I haven’t stopped laughing at Blaine Gabbert, NFL Quarterback, since he was drafted three rounds too early simply because he looked like a long haired Drew Bledsoe. Even the staunchest Mizzou Tigers backer wouldn’t have backed him as a top 10 pick, let alone somebody you trade two draft picks away to move up for. His awfulness has only been magnified for the past few weeks as Maurice Jones-Drew remained out with a foot injury. I realize that he has virtually no one to throw the ball to, but he could have 1988 Jerry Rice running routes for him and he’d still miss him by 10 yards. Houston could be looking past this game, but even if they are they should be able to win by two touchdowns. I expect them to remain focused and thoroughly maul the Jags.

NY Jets at St. Louis– Line: St. Louis by 3 1/2

Tim’s change: St. Louis by 4 ½

If you can avoid thinking about either team, go for it. The Rams are tough at home and coming off a clutch performance to earn a tie at SF. The Jets are coming off yet another offensive disaster, unable to score on offense in Seattle. While the St. Louis home advantage is nothing like the Pacific Northwest, it still exist and I’m not picking the Jets again until the score 20 points. Take the Rams and give it.

Mike’s change: St. Louis by 2

I almost went pick ‘em on this game, since these teams are pretty much dead even right now. At least for St. Louis, there’s hope for the future, assuming Sam Bradford ever gets into the neighborhood of living up to his ridiculous contract. The Sanchize has been so bad lately I almost think he wants Tebow to be put into the game, just to shut everyone up when they realize how bad he is. New York’s skill position players are, to a man, among the worst in the entire league, so even an All-Pro QB would have trouble winning with this squad, let alone the garbage that New York is throwing out there. I’d have more confidence in St. Louis if they hadn’t completely choked away the game against San Francisco last week. They’ll probably still win, but it will be ugly and close.

New Orleans at Oakland – Line: New Orleans by 4 ½

Tim’s change: New Orleans by 3

New Orleans beat Atlanta but really should have lost. The Raiders, as usual, racked up a ton of passing yards and still got blown out. The Raider run game has vanished while the Saints’ run game might have arrived. The Saints are still moving up, refusing to be out of the playoff picture despite starting 0-4. The Raiders are trying real hard to be a bottom-5 team and I think that’ll continue. I’d love to make this a Saint blowout but the Raiders’ offense, combined with the still-putrid Saint defense prevents it.

Mike’s change: New Orleans by 10

What little hope Oakland had going into this game was dashed as soon as Darren McFadden was scratched from the game. If Oakland can’t run, defenses can key on Carson Palmer, and if he goes into hero-ball mode, even the Saints terrible defense will be able to take advantage. When the Raiders lose, they lose in spectacular fashion, and I expect this to be another example of that. Chris Ivory and Mark Ingram are hitting their stride in the running game, which couldn’t come at a better time, with Darren Sproles still out with a wrist injury. Drew Brees lit up the scoreboard the last time he was in the bay area in the playoffs last year, and look for him to pick up where he left off.

San Diego at Denver– Line: Denver by 7 ½

Tim’s change: Denver by 9

Denver made Cam look stupid last week. Pressure all day, sacks, fumbles, passing while being tackled. If I had to name a defensive MVP this season Von Miller would be in the conversation. The Bronco rushing game isn’t as good as I thought Denver would need it to be to win, but the controlled offense (despite the weekly dropped passes by Thomas) is doing enough every week. The Chargers lost by 10 to Tampa after giving up both a special teams and defensive TD – they deserved a better fate but a Norv-coached team? This is your fate as long as he’s calling the shots. A Denver win gives them a 3 game lead with 6 to play. If the Chargers have anything in the tank they gotta show it now…and they won’t.

Mike’s change: Denver by 15

It only took five years, but someone finally got a reaction out of Norv!

I don’t think this is going to have any kind of notable bump in performance for the Chargers. If they were really wanting to play hard for their coach, they shouldn’t have crapped the bed against Tampa last week. Philip Rivers has been awful this year, even when they were winning games, and he looks almost as done as Chris Johnson. Denver is clicking pretty well right now, and I wouldn’t expect to see the Chargers jump out to a 24-0 lead like they did in their last meeting. I do, however, expect Denver to light up the scoreboard like the second half of that game. Norv still won’t get fired, because I apparently ran over a gypsy or something.

Indianapolis at New England – Line: New England by 9 ½

Tim’s change: New England by 5

The Patriots aren’t closing the way they should – clearly they aren’t fans of Alec Baldwin.

They are doing enough to win but they are also allowing teams like Buffalo, the Jets, the Cardinals, to stay close and make things happen in the 4th. The Colts and their cast of nobody-knows are contending with everyone and sit in the WC right now. The schedule has some tough games coming for Indy but a lot of easy ones as well. A win here virtually clinches a post-season berth with their competition and the possibility of an extended Big Ben absence. I thought the Colts would win 5 or 6 – the way they are playing it could be 10 and the playoffs. It ain’t just Luck, either; the entire team and organization are moving up. A game closer than it should be and I’m openly rooting for the Colts.

Mike’s change: New England by 3 ½

At what point is it OK to discuss whether Bruce Arians is a better fit as coach for this Indy team than Chuck Pagano? They were 1 – 2 when Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia, and are now 5 – 1 under Arians and firing on all cylinders. Has an interim coach won Coach of the Year before? Andrew Luck is definitely living up to his #1 pick status, although to live up to the hype he had he may need to cure a leper or two before the year ends. New England has been way too shaky this year, especially in fourth quarters. They really should have lost the game against Buffalo last week, and Indianapolis is playing far better than Buffalo has at any point this season. On paper, New England should be able to score on Indy’s defense pretty easily, but they’ve only played about six quarters of complete football this year. Indy is unspectacular but solid all around, and that will be enough to make the Patriots sweat out another overly close game.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh – Line: Baltimore by 3 ½

Tim’s change: Baltimore by 4

Normally I would make this a closer game, but the combo of the Ravens’ over-easy win and the Steelers not as-easy win leads me to believe neither team took last week seriously. The Ravens have a lot of injuries on defense and while bad teams like the Browns or Raiders are unable to fully take advantage of that, a quality offense like the Steelers will take said advantage. Unfortunately… an offense led by Byron Leftwich and his 7 second passing delivery is not that offense. I won’t take the Steelers against the Ravens without Roethlisberger. (I even spelled that without looking it up!) No Ben=Ravens by 4.

Mike’s change: Pick ‘em

This has far less to do with Baltimore’s annihilation of the pathetic Raiders last week, and everything to do with Pittsburgh being without their most important offensive (Roethlisberger) and defensive (Troy Polomalu) players. Baltimore has yet to play two consecutive really good games, and Pittsburgh has enough on defense to keep this game close. Unfortunately, with Byron Leftwich running the show, with the immortal Charlie Batch backing him up, it’s going to be very difficult for Pittsburgh to score at all. Baltimore atrocious run defense may be their undoing here, but Pittsburgh couldn’t take advantage of a porous Chiefs defense last week. This will be a low scoring, close game, but not because it is a “defensive struggle” like in the past, it will just be ugly football.

Chicago at San Francisco – Line: San Francisco by 5

Tim’s change: San Francisco by 9

I don’t think there’s going to be a QB controversy in San Francisco but Kapernick is not the same player as Smith, offering different skills and better energy. This line will blow up depending on Cutler/Smith’s availability – if both don’t play the 49ers should add to the betting line. The Bears deserve a break because the bad weather contributed so heavily to last week’s home loss but it is your own fault for having Jason Campbell on your team. The Niners, as they have in almost every game, will play a close game that goes down to the final drive before someone wins a nailbiter. I don’t care how good the Bear defense is – with Campbell at QB I don’t think you’re gonna beat the 49ers. If Cutler plays I’d call it a 3 point game but other than that it’s a full TD higher to the home side.

Mike’s change: San Francisco by 3

The same horrible weather that contributed to the Chiefs / Steelers game being far closer than it had any right to be also turned the Chicago / Houston game into an ugly turnover fest. The people blaming Jason Campbell for the Bears loss last week clearly weren’t watching the turd sandwich that Smokin’ Jay Cutler was serving up before he got his bell rung. San Francisco was lucky to not lose the game against St. Louis last week, but at least now they should be well versed in the overtime rules. Alex Smith has passed his concussion test & should play but as of right now there’s been no word on Cutler. I have more confidence in Jason Campbell than most people, especially if he has a full week with the starters in practice, but San Francisco’s defense is not who you want to be making your season debut against. Chicago’s defense should get at least one score out of the not-concussed Smith, but San Francisco should still manage to take the game.

Tim’s Lock of the Week – Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Mike’s Lock of the Week – San Diego at Denver

Last Week:

Tim – 3 correct (1 – 0 locks)

Mike – 6 correct (0 – 1 locks)

Vegas – 5 correct

Season: