Esteban Chaves put himself in the perfect position to win his first stage race as a professional when he came out on top in a very dramatic queen stage. The Colombian now just has to get safely through the final stage which takes place on the Yas Marina Formula 1 circuit and should see the sprinters bring the 2015 stage racing season to a close with a spectacular bunch sprint under the setting sun in Abu Dhabi.

The course

It’s a tradition that the biggest stage races end with a criterium-like race in the capital while shorter stage races often see the GC battle go down to the wire on a challenging final day. Despite being just a four-day race, the Abu Dhabi Tour will do like most national tours do: end the race with a circuit race that even takes place in even more attractive surrounding as it is held on the Yas Marina Formula 1 circuit. This should make for a spectacular end to the stage racing season when some of the best sprinters battle it out in Abu Dhabi on the final big day of racing in 2015.

At just 110km, the final stage is a very short one and the entire stage takes place in the Yas Marina Circuit. The peloton will complete 20 laps of the 5.5km circuit which is wide and the surface is in impeccable condition. The first part is mainly made up of long, straight roads but the final two kilomeres are technically pretty challenging, with several 90-degree turns coming in relatively quick succession. There will be turns with 800m and 500m to go and the final right-hand turn comes just 250m from the line, meaning that it will be a sprint where positioning and lead-outs are very important. There will be intermediate sprints at the end of the 5th, 10th and 15th laps.

The weather

Impressively, the riders managed to go all out in a big battle on the final climb despite the brutal heat that again marked the race in today’s queen stage. There will be no respite tomorrow as Sunday will be a sunny day with a maximum temperature of 38 degrees. However, as the stage takes place in the early evening, the temperature is expected to be 32-33 degrees during the race.

There will be a relatively strong wind from a northwesterly direction which means that it will be a cross-headwind in the first part of the circuit and then a long section with crosswind followed by a tailwind part. In the final, technical part, it will mainly be a headwind until the riders turn into a cross-tailwind for the sprint.

The favourites

We had pointed to Esteban Chaves as our favourite to win both the queen stage and the overall but we hadn’t expected him to take the victory in such a dramatic fashion. For once, the Colombian who is very mature and always gauges his effort very well, had gone too early and there is little doubt that Wout Poels would have won the stage if he hadn’t crashed in the final turn. However, the Dutchman can only blame himself for making the mistake and it most hurt for him to have missed out a maiden overall stage race victory in such a stupid way after he already got close in the Tour of Britain earlier this year.

Otherwise the stage was marked by a sudden drop in form for Vincenzo Nibali who was very confident and attacked from very far out. Whether it was the heat or something else is hard to tell at this point but there was a vast difference between the Nibali who left everybody behind in Lombardy and the rider that continued to drift backwards in Abu Dhabi. Instead, it was Fabio Aru who saved the day slightly for Astana by finishing the stage in second.

Astana is still poised to have a rider on the final podium and they have also won a stage. They even have a big chance to double their tally in the final stage. Chaves will go back into survival mode and his Orica-GreenEDGE team will rally around him to make sure that nothing prevents their star from taking the first of what is likely to be many overall stage race wins as a professional.

Meanwhile, the sprinters all dream about winning the final stage. Guardini is just one of the many sprinters that are big Formula 1 fans, and a win on the Yas Marina circuit will be very spectacular. With race taking place under the setting sun, it will be a truly fascinating end to the stage racing season.

The stage will be very similar to a final stage in a grand tour as it has a very similar format. Of course there will be no early celebration as the racing will be on right from the beginning and with the later start and less intensive heat, we may see a few more riders being keen on going on the attack, also because it is their final day of racing in 2015.

We expect a rather aggressive start to the stage and it will probably take a bit more time for the break to be formed. In this kind of final stage, it is often not left to the smaller teams to go on the attack and we could see several WorldTour teams try to join the moves. BMC and Katusha stand out as teams that will try to create a surprise and the sprint teams will have to be on their toes.

Alessandro Bazzana did a lot to lock up the sprints classification today but with three intermediate sprints in the stage, nothing is guaranteed yet. He will be very eager to join the move and the battle for the sprints jersey will be one of the exciting parts of this stage.

In this kind of stage, the gap rarely gets very big and it is unlikely to be any different tomorrow. Orica-GreenEDGE probably don’t have to do much work to defend their lead as Sky and Astana are likely to come to the fore and make sure that the situation doesn’t get under control. Giant-Alpecin have also been keen to work as have Etixx-QuickStep so there should be plenty of interest in bringing the break back. We can expect Sebastian Henao, Paolo Tiralongo, Valerio Agnoli, Cheng Ji and maybe Carlos Verona to spend most of the stage on the front.

The final intermediate sprint comes with 22.5km to go. The early break is unlikely to have been caught at that point but if it has, the door is open for some of the GC riders to sprint for seconds. Ulissi can move into fourth and Valverde into sixth by picking up some bonifications and both are pretty fast in a sprint.

Parts of the circuit are pretty technical but as it is a Formula 1 circuit, the corners are probably some that can be taken at relatively high speed. Hence, it should be relatively easy for the peloton to control the break and it will be a big surprise if this stage is not decided in a bunch sprint.

The sprint will be tricky as there are no less than three turns inside the final kilometre, with the final corner coming just 250m from the line. Even if they don’t require much braking, their presence will make positioning and lead-outs much more important than pure speed.

Nonetheless, we will still put Elia Viviani on top of our list of favourites. The Italian again proved his speed by taking a comfortable sprint win in stage 2 and he will be extremely eager to double his tally on the Formula 1 circuit. However, the Sky lead-out has worked pretty poorly and the train of Andrey Fenn-Ben Swift-Viviani that worked so extremely well in the Tour of Britain has been far from its best.

However, Viviani both showed his great condition and his improved positioning skills when he managed to get onto Sagan’s wheel yesterday and when he got there, the outcome was never in doubt. Tomorrow it will again be important to be near the front when the many turns start and on paper Viviani has the team to make that possible. Even if the lead-out again fails, he has proved that he has the form and skills to do it by himself and as he is the fastest rider in this field, he is our favourite.

Peter Sagan decided not to do the sprint in the opening stage but was back in action on stage 2. After three days of racing, he has got back up to speed and there is little doubt that he will be the protected sprinter tomorrow. Tinkoff-Saxo would love to have their world champion near the front so Sagan should be the captain.

Sagan was nowhere near Viviani in the last sprint but he should have a better chance on the F1 circuit. The sprint is much more technical and the Tinkoff-Saxo lead-out has proved to be the best in this race. Daniele Bennati and Matteo Tosatto have done an excellent job and Sagan is also very good at positioning himself.

Furthermore, Sagan likes this kind of technical finale as he can take the turns at higher speed than most and he has the acceleration to make the most of the late corner. If Tinkoff-Saxo can again drop him off on the front, Viviani really has to be at the top of his game to come around.

Andrea Guardini has already won a stage in this race and afterwards he made it clear that this Formula 1 stage was now his big goal. The Italian is perfectly suited to this kind of short, fast stage which is tailor-made for a pure sprinter like him. He has won such stages in the past and when it comes to speed, only Viviani can match him.

However, Guardini is at a big disadvantage as he only has Alexey Lutsenko who is no real sprinter, to support him. That was costly in stage 2 where he was never even close to the front and had to settle for 20th. Tomorrow he can allow himself to make similar mistakes but it will be difficult to have no support in this kind of technical finale. On the other hand, he has improved his positioning a lot and he definitely has the speed to finish it off.

Giant-Alpecin have been very eager to win a sprint stage in this race and they got close yesterday when Luka Mezgec took fourth. The Slovenian has one chance left and will be extremely motivated in his final race with the German team. He is not as fast as Viviani and Guardini but on paper he has a very good lead-out with Tom Dumoulin and Marcel Kittel. Yesterday Kittel was set back by a puncture but with the German back at the helm, Mezgec will have a much better chance. If Giant-Alpecin can nail the lead-out, Mezgec may overcome his lack of speed to win the stage.

Until now, the only team that have been able to match Tinkoff-Saxo in the finale, have been Etixx-QuickStep. They have lost Tom Boonen but were still very strong in stage 2 where Stijn Vandenbergh, Lukasz Wisniowski and Fabio Sabatini hit the front in the very finale. The outcome was a third place for Sabatini and fifth for Wisniowski. Sabatini is a lead-out man and not a sprinter but in a sprint that is very technical, team support may be enough for him to win the stage.

Sacha Modolo and Davide Cimolai have both had a chance in the first two stages. Tomorrow we expect Modolo to again be the protected rider as he is the fastest and really loves this kind of technical finish. He has won this kind of sprints with a late turn several times in the past and with Cimolai to lead him out, he has a very strong support. If they can finally do things right, this is a real Modolo sprint.

Going into the race, Marcel Kittel made it clear that he would be riding for Mezgec in this race. However, the German has actually been much stronger than expected and his form has not been too bad. He even made it back to the peloton after his late puncture yesterday and he played a big role in the lead-out on the first stage. This is his final race with the team and it is not impossible that he will be given the chance to take one final victory. This kind of short stage is suited to him. The finale is a bit too technical but with Dumoulin and Mezgec at his side, he has a great lead-out and everybody knows that he is the fastest of the fastest.

Andrea Palini has been riding extremely well in this race. The Italian was not regarded as pure sprinter while riding for Lampre-Merida but he has really stepped up his level since he joined Skydive. He has had two races to mix it up with the best and he has been consistently in the top 10 in all the bunch sprints. He is very good at positioning himself which is important in this kind of sprint. He is not fast enough to win but he could find himself in the top 3.

We expect Lampre-Merida to ride for Modolo but it is not impossible that Davide Cimolai will be given the chance. This is not really a sprint for him though as he is more of a rider for the harder finales than this kind of high-speed affair. On the other hand, he will have Modolo to lead him out and that could make all the difference in the technical finale.

Movistar were expecting to ride for Juan Jose Lobato in the bunch sprints but instead it has been Jose Joaquin Rojas who has been in the top 10 for them. That’s no big surprise. Rojas is very good at positioning himself while Lobato is terrible when it comes to the big fight in the end. He is clearly the fastest and has the speed to win but in this technical finale, he will probably again finish outside the top 10. Rojas doesn’t have the speed to win but another top 10 finish is very likely.

Finally, Marco Canola deserves a mention. On paper, Unitedhealthcare should do the sprints for John Murphy but the American has struggled to get into position. Canola has done much better and even though he is not a pure sprinter, he has been in the top 10 twice. Of course he won’t win this stage but as it is more about positioning than speed, he could again be up there.

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Elia Viviani

Other winner candidates: Peter Sagan, Andrea Guardini

Outsiders: Luka Mezgec, Fabio Sabatini, Sacha Modolo, Marcel Kittel

Jokers: Andrea Palini, Davide Cimolai, Jose Joaquin Rojas, Marco Canola, Juan Jose Lobato