A framed print hanging in Riverside Mayor William “Rusty” Bailey’s office of a red trolley passing the Fox theater is a look into the city’s past and, Bailey hopes, a glimpse of its future.

Riverside, like many U.S. cities, was served by streetcars until the mid-1950s, when fixed trolley lines gave way to more flexible buses and cars. Today, streetcars are back in vogue and popping up around the country. Tucson, St. Louis and Cincinnati are expected to start service this year.

Bailey said he believes Riverside should join the dozens of cities building or expanding modern streetcar lines for two reasons: A streetcar would improve transportation and make it possible to live and work here without a car, and it would spur development of offices, shops and apartments in its path.

“The No. 1 goal of this is a more robust public transportation system,” Bailey said in an interview. “One of the No. 1 outcomes is economic development. This is an answer to (the loss of) redevelopment.”

A study that’s now under way is expected to answer some of the many unknowns about the project Bailey has dubbed “Riverside Reconnects”: What’s the best route? How much would it cost, and who would pay? And how much power would it have to attract private development and boost the city’s economy?

The cost of a Riverside streetcar line is unknown, but the city’s high-end estimate of $25 million per mile would work out to $300 million for the proposed 12-mile system.

The preliminary plan is for a first phase running along University Avenue from UC Riverside to downtown, and a later segment from downtown to the southwest city limits along Magnolia Avenue. No decisions have been made on the location or number of stops, or whether the line would have a dedicated lane or share the road with traffic.

Other cities’ streetcar experiences have been mixed or are inconclusive because many are still in planning stages.

Among existing systems, performance varies widely and in most cities the transportation benefit “is really seen as secondary to the economic development (goal),” said Jeffrey Brown, an associate professor of urban and regional planning at Florida State University who has studied streetcars.

Streetcars are slow — those Brown studied averaged 4-7 mph — and some don’t run frequently enough or at the right times to serve commuters. There are also little solid data on how much economic development is a direct result of streetcar lines, Brown said.

Opinions of Riverside residents and business owners also vary widely, but Bailey should have plenty of time to try to win them over. The study is expected to take about a year, and a consultant working on it estimated it could be eight years before passengers are hopping on a Riverside streetcar.

BACK TO THE FUTURE

From the early to late 1800s, streetcars evolved from horse-drawn vehicles into electric cars that drew power from overhead wires. They allowed cities to expand beyond their densely populated cores and reached their height of popularity in the early 1900s, when they served not just cities but regions, said Arthur Guzetti, vice president of policy for the American Public Transit Association.

The rise of the automobile in the 1920s began to eat into streetcar ridership, and by the 1930s many of the original streetcar systems were deteriorating and made less economic sense to maintain, he said.

Streetcars have seen a revival as people have begun moving from suburbs back to cities, Guzetti said. (U.S. Census data from 2013 show more than 75 percent of the nation’s metropolitan areas grew in population since 2012.) People like them because they’re energy-efficient and community-friendly — some of the same reasons they initially worked, he said.

“The streetcars create a sense of place,” Guzetti said. “It’s a way to shape your community. It’s a way to spark economic development. It’s a way to attract younger generations.”

Around Southern California, Los Angeles and San Diego have seen success in the past few years with streetcars, though they operate within the sort of larger light rail system that Riverside lacks.

REASONS TO RIDE

On a recent weekday morning, every space in the parking lot of the Expo Line’s Culver City station was full. Passengers included a young woman with a toddler in a stroller, a young man in a plaid shirt and black Chuck Taylors listening to music on his smartphone and several people who wheeled bicycles onto the streetcar.

The Expo Line runs between Culver City and downtown Los Angeles, where it connects with other light rail service. An extension to Santa Monica is under construction.

Some riders use it in addition to their cars, but for others, it’s a replacement.

Since his car broke down, Frank Hernandez, 43, has been riding the Green Line from home in Downey to work at the California Science Center, and he planned to ride the Expo Line somewhere to get lunch.

“I think the trains are a big part of getting around town immediately and quickly,” Hernandez said, adding, “It is nice to not have to worry about traffic, read a book, listen to music or even take a nap.”

Since it opened in 2012 the Expo Line has been “very, very popular,” serving nearly 30,000 annual riders — well above a 2020 projection of 27,000 riders, said Rick Jager, spokesman for the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority, or Metro.

San Diego’s system carries commuters to work, visitors and residents to Petco Park and the convention center, and students to and from San Diego State and other colleges, San Diego Metropolitan Transit System spokesman Rob Schupp said.

Launched in 1981 to help move thousands of people from the Mexican border to jobs in the city, San Diego’s trains “led the renaissance of light rail development,” Schupp said. In 2011, it added the Silver Line, a downtown loop traveled by a restored 1946 trolley car.

Train operator Allan Ingram said rail enthusiasts have come from Germany, England, New Zealand and all over the United States specifically to ride the vintage streetcar.

Software application developer Brian Wisma, 27, said he rides San Diego’s modern trolleys and buses daily to get to work and added that he’d use public transit even if his employer didn’t pay for his bus pass.

DEVELOPMENT MAGNET?

Bailey and other streetcar supporters believe the Riverside Reconnects project could help traffic, parking, air quality and the city’s economy.

College students would be a target audience, with UCR and La Sierra University directly on the route. Out-of-town visitors could park elsewhere and ride into downtown for events such as the Festival of Lights, which draws thousands of people between Thanksgiving and New Year’s, said Jay Eastman, a Riverside city planner working on the streetcar project.

Bailey said a family could get rid of one of its cars and ride the streetcar instead, saving gas and maintenance costs that could be spent at local businesses or invested in their home.

Perhaps most importantly, the mayor expects new development to sprout along the streetcar route, bringing new residents and businesses to the city.

He points to Tucson, where Sun Link, a 4-mile modern streetcar line, is set to begin service later this month. Officials there tout more than $800 million in public and private investment on or near the route.

Compared with five years ago, “The development along the line has changed the landscape completely,” said Shellie Ginn, streetcar program manager in Tucson’s transportation department.

“What was once a place where you had government offices, attorneys, courts, has now turned into a place where people want to come, hang out, go to a show, eat at fabulous restaurants.”

In San Diego, Matisse Bistro owner Othman Jamati said he saw fewer customers during 18 months of construction on the trolley line, but overall the trolley’s impact on his restaurant has been good.

He opened the bistro about nine years ago in a building so close to the line you can feel the floor rumble when the trolley passes. Customers bring their kids and take a table by the window to watch.

“It’s an asset that makes it very unique,” he said.

But about a block from the trolley stop, Sabrina Café and Deli manager Maria Weaver said being next to the line hasn’t helped her, and the dust, noise and equipment from construction have impeded business.

“We don’t really get much business from the trolley,” she said, adding that riders in search of snacks and drinks often go to the 7-Eleven right at the stop.

Brown, the urban planning professor, said it’s hard to evaluate the economic impacts of streetcars because “The studies that have been done have been really simplistic.” One from Little Rock, which opened its line in 2004, simply drew a buffer zone around the line and suggested all new development within the area was due to the streetcar, he said.

CALCULATING COSTS

Although supporters say businesses have invested millions or even billions in cities because of streetcar projects, some skeptics warn that streetcar buyers should beware of the true costs and realistic about possible benefits before they invest.

Guzetti, of the American Public Transit Association, said most cities use a combination of federal, state and local funds to build their projects. An analysis by the association showed that among 14 cities with streetcar projects, federal dollars accounted for 45.7 percent of funding on average, city/county sources covered 20.5 percent and transit agency money averaged 11.7 percent. State, regional and private sources each averaged less than 10 percent of costs.

Some cities have created special taxing districts to fund streetcars, and Bailey suggested the possibility of an agreement that would put some property and sales taxes into the streetcar system. Portland sold bonds backed by parking garage revenue.

Some systems have seen ridership grow faster than expected, but news reports abound of cost overruns. Construction of a 4.5-mile line in Arlington, Va., was more than $100 million above earlier projections, and operating costs for Atlanta’s 2.7-mile route were expected to be at least double what was assumed.

Brown said Portland helped encourage people to ride its streetcar – or use a bus or bicycle – by raising parking prices.

As for economic development, streetcar boosters say the long-term investment of fixed rails — as opposed to changeable bus routes — gives developers confidence to build. But others, such as the Libertarian think tank the Cato Institute, contend that more permissive zoning and, in some cases, financial subsidies drive development along streetcar lines.

Officials need to take transportation needs and development goals into account to create a successful streetcar project, said Ron Golem, principal at BAE Urban Economics, which is conducting Riverside’s streetcar study. That could mean changing zoning to encourage development along the line, he said.

“You sort of really need to do all these things to get the maximum bang for your buck,” he said.

And although building streetcar infrastructure is more expensive than planning a bus line, both systems require ongoing funds because fares don’t cover operating costs.

San Diego’s “farebox recovery” — how much of the system’s costs are recouped from riders — is about 50 percent for the trolleys, higher than the average for public transit, Schupp said. Metro’s Jager said Los Angeles recovers 26 percent, and officials hope a planned fare increase will boost it to 33 percent.

RIVERSIDERS DIVIDED

In Riverside, some business owners along the proposed route say the streetcar could be a boon.

“It adds charm to the area,” Magnolia Flowers owner Lowana Richardson said. And it would help bring college kids to the area — “those that do not like the stigma of riding the bus.”

But Michael Velez, who manages Richardson’s shop, said he doesn’t think the city needs a streetcar.

“My opinion is it’s going to cost way too much,” he said. “Why invest in getting a rail car to come down when there’s a lot of streets that haven’t been fixed?”

At Keyes Mane Design, owner and barber Charles Keyes said that without knowing the cost of the project, it’s hard to say whether it would benefit Riverside. But, he added, if streetcar tracks took the place of on-street parking, “It would be a disaster.”

UCR students also seem divided on the streetcar plan.

English student Tariq Abdulrahman, 29, said he has a car and doesn’t see a streetcar being useful to him because he never goes downtown.

Policy and business major Maureen Acero, 21, said she’d ride a streetcar if it were faster than bus service, but she wondered how much the project would cost.

If Riverside builds something like what San Francisco has, she said, “I could see that adding to the aesthetics of the city.”

Bailey said a streetcar line would be an investment in the city’s future, another transportation option that would work with the existing bus system and attract new development.

“We want people to ride the system, and to do that we want to make sure we have the greatest value (and) lowest cost,” he said.

Guzetti, with the American Public Transit Association, said in evaluating streetcar projects, the important question is whether cities that have built them like what they have.

The Metro rail network in Washington, D.C., was criticized throughout planning and construction, Guzetti said, but “now that it’s done, no one says we made a mistake.”

Brown said officials planning to build streetcars ought to look at what they want to accomplish and talk to cities that have tried it.

“Most cities should really be very careful (when) making this type of investment about what they think this is going to do for them,” he said.

Contact the writer: 951-368-9461 or arobinson@pe.com