With sales of the first and biggest Spring title being reported tomorrow, this is as good a time as any to post a review of Stalker’s latest v1wk1 estimates.

Upcoming Releases



Points so far Estimate Rls Date Days to Rls Solcit Date Pts/Day Series 62,095 62,095 2017/04/26 -7 2017/01/21 621 Granblue Fantasy The Animation 18,393 21,604 2017/05/24 21 2017/03/10 354 Idolmaster Cinderella Girls Gekijou 4,352 6,674 2017/07/19 77 2016/11/25 28 Frame Arms Girl * 1,862 5,151 2017/07/26 84 2017/04/06 74 Saenai Heroine no Sodatekata ♭ 1,728 4,756 2017/06/28 56 2017/04/07 72 sin Nanatsu no Taizai 1,711 4,887 2017/06/28 56 2017/03/12 34 Eromanga-sensei 1,655 3,461 2017/06/21 49 2017/03/25 45 Shingeki no Kyojin Season 2 * 1,537 8,237 2017/06/28 56 2017/04/19 128 Natsume Yuujin-chou Roku 1,357 3,034 2017/06/21 49 2017/04/05 52 Starmyu Season 2 716 2,214 2017/07/19 77 2017/04/01 24 Boku no Hero Academia 2nd 689 2,500 2017/06/28 56 2017/04/15 43 Dungeon ni Deai wo Motomeru no wa Machigatteiru Darou ka Gaiden: Sword Oratoria 653 1,809 2017/06/21 49 2017/04/15 41 Re:Creators 646 1,481 2017/06/28 56 2017/04/03 23 Rokudenashi Majutsu Koushi to Akashic Records 610 1,473 2017/06/30 58 2017/04/05 23 Oushitsu Kyoushi Haine 487 1,250 2017/06/28 56 2017/03/24 13 Shuumatsu Nani Shitemasu ka? Isogashii desu ka? Sukutte Moratte Ii desu ka? 486 2,007 2017/07/19 77 2017/04/19 41 Sakura Quest 467 1,186 2017/06/14 42 2017/04/03 17 Tsugumomo 464 1,540 2017/07/28 86 2017/04/04 17 Uchouten Kazoku 2 * 396 1,708 2017/07/26 84 2017/04/07 17 Hinako Note 390 1,068 2017/06/21 49 2017/04/14 23 Clockwork Planet 348 982 2017/06/28 56 2017/03/24 9 Busou Shoujo Machiavellianism 243 483 2017/06/30 58 2017/04/07 10 Ren'ai Boukun 191 578 2017/06/28 56 2017/04/11 10 Fukumenkei Noise 142 474 2017/08/23 112 2017/03/24 4 Twin Angel Break * 116 454 2017/07/28 86 2017/04/03 4 Alice to Zouroku * 66 397 2017/08/25 114 2017/04/06 3 Room Mate 57 183 2017/07/26 84 2017/04/06 2 Sakurada Reset * 53 564 2017/08/02 91 2017/04/24 8 Zero kara Hajimeru Mahou no Sho * 43 194 2017/08/23 112 2017/04/14 3 Atom: The Beginning * 31 62 2017/06/23 51 2017/04/06 1 Love Kome: We Love Rice 24 95 2017/07/26 84 2017/04/14 1 Kabukibu! *

* I have a feeling more shows than usual will be underestimated because Stalker has gotten more aggressive with its high price MSRP penalties. It now extends them all the way down to ¥10k and we’ve seen before that applying the full penalty to sub-¥20k releases usually results in overestimation, sometimes quite significant. The shows with one or more discs subject to the penalty are: Uchouten Kazoku 2, Twin Angel Break, Zero kara Hajimeru Mahou no Sho, Sakurada Reset, Kabukibu!, Alice to Zouroku, Atom: The Beginning, Tsuki ga Kirei, Frame Arms Girl, and Shingeki no Kyojin Season 2.

The above columns show, in order

• Stalker current wk1 points as of February 8, 10AM JST

• Stalker final wk1 estimate as of February 8, 10AM JST

• Release Date

• Days until release (counted in terms of # of days Stalker will add points)

• Solicitation Date

• Points per day, calculated as (CurrentPts / (RlsDate – SolicitDate))

• Expectations as to whether I think actual sales will be higher (Underestimate) or lower (Overestimate) than Stalker’s predictions

• Show title

Comments

Points per day vs Days to release

Points per day is useful for ironing out discrepancies in current points (Why does X have more than Y when Y has a better final estimate), while days until release helps give context to discrepancies in final estimates (Why does X have a higher estimate than Y when Y is currently far ahead). Obviously a title 10 days out will have a smaller relative gap between current and final estimates than a title 40 days out.

Other Comments

• Starmyu Season 2 – Idol boys, s1 significantly underestimated. s2 will be as well, no doubt.

• Granblue Fantasy will reveal its numbers soon enough but but I’m expecting this to be overestimated because its astounding Amazon rankings never seemed quite matched at other shops.

• Tsuki ga Kirei was recently solicited and only has 5 days worth of points so far. Stalker only starts calculating estimates after a week. Right now it has 226 points, and if you did Stalker’s calculation method using 5 days it would have an estimation of 6,673. But with release 147 days away and it currently ranking well due to being half the price of normal releases and solicited a bit late, that number is meaningless.

• Shingeki non Kyojin Season 2 – I feel like I’ve beat this one to death, but yes we’re looking at one of or probably the worst sequel drop in history. From a 52k juggernaut to a sequel estimated to sell somewhere between 3.5k and 8k (depending on whether you take the penalized estimate or not). Said it before and will say it again, do NOT let your big successful franchises languish for years before delivering a follow-up. TIME = DEATH.

• Frame Arms Girl is very weird to estimate. First off, it was solicited an eternity ago, back in November 2016 (8 months before release!). Secondly, it’s better viewed as “plamo kit with a BD attached” than the opposite. v1 isn’t even available for purchase at Amazon anymore as of the last few days, no doubt because they’re taking orders for it as if it’s a figure, not a BD. To make things more confusing, it’s under Stalker’s high price penalty, which is another wrinkle to consider. I’m guessing it’ll go back up for order before release (which is still way off in July) but regardless, it shouldn’t be evaluated as if it’s a normal anime BD.

Seasonal Top 10 Guesses

There’s probably not much point in guessing right now! Granblue will be #1 and Deremas Gekijou should be #2 if the event ticket boost is enough to make up for lower v2-3 sales (it’s a short after all, those just don’t sell that many discs).

Frame Arms would normally seem like #3, but for all the reasons I’ve mentioned above, I genuinely have no idea how it’ll sell. It does have the plamo kits in every volume though, so it won’t plunge after ep 1 like other shows with v1 bonuses. If it’s produced in enough quantity or Saekano is weaker this time around, it’ll be #3.

I have no reason to believe Natsume will pass 6k average since it’s the sixth season and the fifth season averaged 5.4k. Maybe 5k this season.

Saekano s2 I’ll be bullish on because its first season was so heavily underestimated. I don’t think it’ll repeat to that degree this time, but hell, s1v1 only had a 4.2k estimate, but sold 6.6k wk1 and 13.2k total. Even the least underestimated volume sold 6.8k wk1 vs a 5.6k estimate.

Tsuki ga Kirei is a wild card but I’m guessing its estimate will be much lower 2-3 weeks from now so I’m ignoring it for now.

There’s no way the below will be correct in the end, and it could be WILDLY off after #2, but no harm just throwing blind guesses out I guess.

01. Granblue Fantasy

02. The Idolmaster Cinderella Girls Gekijou

03. Saenai Heroine no Sodatekata ♭

04. Frame Arms Girl

05. Shingeki no Kyojin Season 2

06. Starmyu Season 2

07. Natsume Yuujin-chou Go

08. Eromanga-sensei

09. sin Nanatsu no Taizai

10. Dungeon ni Deai wo Motomeru no wa Machigatteiru Darou ka Gaiden: Sword Oratoria

Also it goes without saying that my top 3 shows this season (Sukasuka, Hinako, Alizou) are dead as dirt. New season, same old disappointment!