In Arizona’s Republican Senate primary, front-runner Martha McSally is airing ads featuring a video clip of President Donald Trump calling her “the real deal.” Her main challenger, Kelli Ward, is circulating mailers featuring a photo of her smiling alongside the commander-in-chief. The third-place candidate, Joe Arpaio, carries the rare distinction of having received a criminal pardon from Trump: The ex-sheriff recently sent a video of the president praising him to potential donors.

None of the three actually has Trump’s endorsement. But all of them are acting like they do — and the president seems just fine with it, even if many in his party are not.


The president’s decision so far to withhold his endorsement has led to a total muddle, prolonging the GOP slugfest in one of the most important Senate races in the country and allowing the presumed Democratic nominee, Kyrsten Sinema, to get a free pass.

With the Aug. 28 primary less than two weeks away, establishment Republicans have grown increasingly anxious that they’re squandering a critical window of time to define Sinema, who faces a nominal primary opponent. She’s spent millions of dollars running positive TV ads to boost her image and set the terms of the general election, while no Republican groups have countered.

The race is critical to both parties' hopes of controlling the Senate, as Republicans defend a 51-49 majority: If Democrats can capture Arizona for the first time in three decades, it will give them a legitimate opening to retake the chamber this fall.

“[Sinema has] used the time well and quite frankly it's shocking to me that it's gone uncontested,” said Chuck Coughlin, a veteran Republican strategist based in Phoenix. “She's done a good job of narrating her candidacy and they've given her a blank canvass to work on. I think it's a problem for whoever the Republican nominee is,” adding that he expects McSally to prevail in the primary.

Morning Score newsletter Your guide to the permanent campaign — weekday mornings, in your inbox. Email Sign Up By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Dan Eberhart, a major Republican donor based in Phoenix who supports McSally, said while the leading Republican candidate is working hard, “Basically nobody is happy that she hasn’t either put Ward away or aimed her fire at Sinema.”

There are indications McSally still sees Ward as a threat. Her campaign this week went up with two TV ads going after Ward, and a pro-McSally super PAC has been hitting Ward with several attack ads.

Most Republicans are confident in polling showing McSally ahead, particularly with early voting by mail well underway. Coughlin said he thinks the anti-Ward ads are being aired “out of an abundance of caution.”

Still, during a recent phone call, NRSC Chairman Cory Gardner asked the president to endorse McSally, something GOP officials believe would have essentially locked down the race for the congresswoman. But Trump did not give him a yes or no answer.

McSally traveled to New York this week to be on site for Trump signing a defense spending bill. The president gave her a shoutout during his speech, but not an endorsement.

“There’s another member of Congress here today who is not only an Air Force veteran, but the first woman ever to fly a fighter jet in combat in U.S. history and I have gotten to know her very well and she is terrific,” Trump said of McSally.

McSally’s team was quick to highlight the clip in a news release and on Twitter.

While the president has refused to take sides in the contest, Trump aides have been frustrated by Ward’s continued efforts to imply she has the president’s support. Ward recently sent out a mailer to voters showing her photographed with the president, rankling White House aides.

Kelli Ward (left) is circulating mailers featuring a photo of her smiling alongside the commander-in-chief. Joe Arpaio (right) carries the rare distinction of having received a criminal pardon from the president. | Ross D. Franklin/AP Photo

The mailer also included an image of a tweet in which Trump said, “Great to see that Dr. Kelli Ward is running.” But the mailer cut off the rest of the president’s tweet, which was sent in August 2017.

“Great to see that Dr. Kelli Ward is running against Flake Jeff Flake, who is WEAK on borders, crime and a non-factor in Senate. He's toxic!” Trump wrote in the full tweet. (A spokesman for Ward defended the mailer to AZCentral.com, which first reported the omission, saying the message of the tweet remained the same.)

People close to the president say not to expect any firm endorsement in the contest.

“President Trump has not endorsed anyone in the GOP Senate primary in Arizona and any photos or other general expressions of support shouldn’t be read as such,” said someone familiar with the operations of the Trump campaign. “He likes all of the candidates in the race very much and looks forward to supporting our nominee in the fall campaign to replace Jeff Flake in the Senate.”

Two senior Republicans in the state say they expect Trump to hold a post-primary "unity" rally, though the White House hasn’t yet announced any plans for an Arizona trip.

In a statement to POLITICO, Arpaio said he was not bothered by the efforts by Republican leaders to secure a Trump endorsement for McSally.

“At this time my only comment is my relationship with the President speaks for itself. It is no secret that Mitch McConnell and the Establishment do not want me in the US Senate,” he said.

Ward, in an interview in Washington last month, said much the same.

“I know that the Mitch McConnell faction and the establishment pushes [McSally] out as much as they can because that's their insider advantage that I don't have,” she said.

While Republicans continue to slug it out, Sinema’s campaign has run free on the airwaves. She’s spent more than $4 million on TV, running six different ads on health care, her work with veterans and her “record of independence.” Her first ad, launched in April, featured her brother, who is a veteran and police officer.

One-third of Arizona voters don’t identify with either party, and Sinema’s ads have been aimed squarely at those voters — none of them mention the word “Trump” or “Democrat.” The ad campaign has been so sustained that going "negative against her is going to be extremely difficult,” said veteran Arizona Democratic strategist Andy Barr.

Travis Smith, a consultant for McSally’s campaign, brushed aside concern about Sinema owning the airwaves all summer. He said internal polling between April and July showed only a small uptick in Sinema’s favorability rating, while her negative ratings also rose by a slightly higher amount.

National Democrats haven’t had to spend to boost Sinema. Instead, a super PAC, Red and Gold, which was formed this month and hasn’t filed any information on its donors, has spent $1.6 million airing anti-Mcsally ads.

Defend Arizona, a pro-McSally super PAC, launched an ad Wednesday pushing back on the Democratic primary meddling. The group has also been running multiple attack ads against Ward.

“We are focused first on the primary,” said Barrett Marson, a spokesman for Defend Arizona, "and then we will focus on Kyrsten Sinema's liberal record.”

