Two new statewide polls indicate that Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom of San Francisco and Republican businessman John Cox of Rancho Santa Fe have big leads over other candidates in next month’s primary, positioning them to face each other in the November runoff.

The survey and electoral modeling by Competitive Edge Research & Communication, released Thursday, show that 26 percent of voters are supporting Newsom and 22 percent are backing Cox.

Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democrat, is at 12 percent, Assemblyman Travis Allen, R-Huntington Beach, is at 9 percent, former Superintendent of Public Instruction Delaine Eastin, a Democrat, is at 8 percent, and Treasurer John Chiang, a Democrat, is at 7 percent.

Another poll released Thursday, this one by SurveyUSA, gives Newsom an even more commanding lead at 33 percent with Cox at 17 percent, Allen at 12 percent, Chiang at 10 percent and Villaraigosa at 8 percent and Eastin at 2 percent. The poll was taken May 21.


Cox has been consistently in second or third place, but the Competitive Edge pollsters went so far as to say that he has solidified that position and that other candidates do not have time to catch up. The top two vote-getters, regardless of party, will proceed to the November runoff election.

“The strength of the two leading candidates’ support makes catching them a long shot,” pollsters John Nienstedt and Jenny Holland wrote in an analysis of their survey.

Other recent polls have suggested that the cake is not yet completely baked.


A Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted May 11-20 had Newsom at 25 percent, Cox at 19 percent and Villaraigosa at 15 percent.

And an earlier poll by USC Dornsife and the Los Angeles Times conducted online from April 18 to May 18 put Newsom at 21 percent, Villaraigosa at 11 and Cox at 10 with Chiang, Allen and Easton all several points behind. The poll spanned the start of mail-in voting and President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Cox.

The Competitive Edge poll was conducted May 20-22 and included 501 randomly sampled likely voters. It used a 30 percent turnout model and has a 4.4 percentage point margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level. Participants were interviewed by phone and also by email. The results were weighted based on vote history, how the participant was surveyed as well as the participant’s age, party and gender — a different methodology than some other recent polls.

Newsom’s campaign did not return a request for comment.


Tim Rosales, Cox’s campaign manager, said that the latest poll reflects the campaign’s research.

“We’re seeing that Republicans are really — since the endorsement by President Trump of John Cox — that Republicans are really aligning behind his candidacy,” Rosales said by phone.

While the poll suggests that it might be safe for the frontrunners to let their guards down, Cox’s campaign isn’t slowing their pace, Rosales said.

“We’re not taking anything for granted,” he said. “We are campaigning hard. In campaign years, a week is a lifetime and there are several votes still to be cast. We are campaigning extraordinarily hard up and down the state.”


In a teleconference with reporters on Thursday afternoon, Nienstedt said Cox likely gained ground because of television commercials, including ones from Newsom’s campaign.

The Democrat’s commercials have referenced Cox’s opposition to gun control and support from Trump — two factors that are off-putting to liberal voters but attractive to many conservatives.

In a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1, Newsom would have a major advantage in a head-to-head race against Cox.

“On the Cox side, on the Republican side, they just don’t have enough money and bandwidth at this point to run their own campaign, so, in essence, Newsom is running Cox’s campaign for him,” Nienstedt said.


While Competitive Edge is often used by Republican campaigns and conservative clients, the firm commissioned the poll on its own to provide additional detail about the political landscape.


Twitter: @jptstewart

joshua.stewart@sduniontribune.com

(619) 293-1841

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6 p.m. This story was updated to include comments from the Cox campaign and from the pollster.