Since making the switch from Anfield to the Etihad in 2015, Raheem Sterling’s record stands at 230 appearances, 89 goals scored in all club competitions – an impressive record for a winger. Guardiola’s arrival in particular saw Sterling transform from an exciting winger with erratic finishing to someone he could depend on for a source of goals. His numbers for 19/20 at first glance look good, with a return of 20 goals from 39 games in all competitions. However, he has struggled of late and City fans have voiced their concerns at his performances, we take a closer look at why that has been the case.

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Sterling’s season can be divided into two halves. From August 4th – October 26th (13 goals in 14 games) and November 2nd – March 8th (7 goals in 25 games). This decline can happen for players in teams who go through hot streaks and eventually regress to the mean. Although Manchester have been inconsistent this season ( by their ridiculously high standards), one thing they remain consistent in is match domination and chance creation, therefore Sterling cannot use a starvation of service as an excuse.

Having scored in just 2 of his last 11 league appearances, and none in his last 6, the picture is clear in terms of his goal troubles, but what about the chances falling his way? Let’s take a closer look at his league stats.

Appearances Goals Total Shots xG Chances Created 9 7 33 6.65 21

Appearances Goals Total Shots xG Chances Created 15 4 39 7.15 15

Breaking it down by xG, we can see an overperformance by Raheem in period 1 and an underperformance in period 2. However, these numbers aren’t alarming. Football is often decided by fine margins and the fact according to xG, Sterling should’ve scored 7 goals instead of 4 isn’t something that’s going to cause him sleepless nights.

That being said, 3 goals from his last 24 shots is concerning. His recent goal drought can be explained by a lack of quality chances. 0 goals from his last 6 games, but the highest xG registered in any of them is 0.77, during a 1-0 victory over Sheffield United in which he took 5 shots. The fact xG doesn’t expect him to have scored 1 goal suggests his chances were quite difficult. The pitfalls of this model of course is it doesn’t explain who is to blame in the short term. Is it Sterling’s team mates, his movement, or simply Sheffield United’s well drilled defence? However, over a long term trend, as seen in the above table, an underperformance of 3 goals in those 15 games are no coincidence given his lack of goals in recent appearances.

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There was a time goals weren’t something expected of Sterling. Up until 17/18, his best season league total was 9. Guardiola’s arrival to the blue side of Manchester was transformative for Sterling, and in 17/18 and 18/19, those totals were 18 and 17 respectively. To showcase that this is no fluke and that Sterling’s game genuinely developed into him being a reliable finisher, the 17/18 xG was 18.83, and 18/19 was 15.91, very close to the true numbers, with the latter being a marginal overperformance.

It’s not just the goals Sterling needs to worry about, his assist numbers in the two title winning seasons were 11 and 10. In 19/20 so far, he has registered just 1 assist, for David Silva’s goal in a 2-0 victory away to Crystal Palace. However, given his xA of 5.93, some blame lies at the door of his team mates for failing to put away quality service from the England international.

We don’t believe that any of these figures show a player in decline, nor do we expect the recent drop in form to last forever. Sterling is a player in his prime and Guardiola’s arrival elevated his game. His international form has also seen an upswing. Following a disappointing World Cup campaign (from a personal perspective), the winger played a pivotal role in England’s Nations League game away to Spain, scoring a brace as the three lions edged out their Spanish counterparts 3-2. Up to that point, his international record was 2 goals in 46 games. Now, he has scored 11 goals in his last 10 games for his country.

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The football coming to a halt while the world deals with coronavirus would’ve disappointed many in the game, but for Raheem, it represents a chance to recharge and come back stronger when things eventually return to normal. Currencies in the economy might be expected to suffer the effects of this pandemic, but it might be good for Sterling.