Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) has connected the East Bay with San Francisco and the Peninsula for over 40 years (history summarized here). Since 2010, ridership has increased from 335,000 daily riders to 423,000, representing a 25 percent increase. Overcrowding and delays have also increased throughout the system, while punctuality and user satisfaction have decreased significantly.

In response to recent growth trends, BART plans to evolve its current service to accommodate the distinct needs of suburban commuters and frequent transit users within the region’s core. This article focuses on operational improvements that BART should complete to adequately serve its growing ridership over the next ten years.

2015 Ridership Analysis

Every month, BART aggregates its turnstile data and produces a ridership report. During July 2015, BART reported 10 stations with more than 10,000 exits. The lists below summarize BART’s ridership trends on weekdays and Saturdays.

Weekday Top 10 Exits

Embarcadero (48,489) Montgomery St (45,628) Powell St (29,671) Civic Center (22,786) Downtown Berkeley (14,944) 12th St Oakland City Center (14,036) 16th St Mission (13,239) 24th St Mission (12,728) 19th St Oakland (12,511) Balboa Park (10,904)

Saturday Top 10 Exits

Powell St (23,560) Embarcadero (21,123) Montgomery St (10,989) Civic Center (9,670) 16th St Mission (8,667) Downtown Berkeley (8,639) 24th St Mission (7,826) Balboa Park (5,669) Coliseum (5,657) SFO (4,745)

As the lists indicate, the 4 Downtown SF stations are the four busiest in the system, with roughly 68 percent of all trips originating from or headed to there. Downtown Berkeley, the two Mission St stations, and Balboa Park also rank in the top 10. The two Downtown Oakland stations place in the weekday list, but are replaced by the SFO and Oakland Coliseum stops on Saturday.

2015 Service Changes

BART has recognized its recent ridership growth and is working to combat peak hour overcrowding. Beginning September 2015, BART will increase service on all lines as shown in the infograph below.

The Pittsburg / Bay Point Line receives the most significant change, with more “short-run” trips between Pleasant Hill and Montgomery St (24th St Mission in the afternoon). By reversing more trains before the ends of the lines, BART can use fewer carriages to provide more service along the busiest segments of the system. The carriages saved will be used to increase train lengths and further relieve overcrowding on the other lines.

After these service increases are implemented, the Warm Springs Extension will open by January 2016. Due to fleet size limitations, documents indicate that the station will receive a consistent 15 to 20 minute service until BART receives new train cars. Fremont – Daly City trains will be extended to the station on weekdays, with Fremont – Richmond service extended to Warm Springs / South Fremont at all other times.

Potential 2016 Service Improvements

With BART’s fleet spread thin, it is unlikely that peak hour service can be improved further until new train cars arrive in 2017. Nonetheless, there is room for off-peak service improvements, especially on weekends.

Sunday Service Increase: Sunday ridership is 75% that of Saturday, but BART provides only half the level of Saturday service on the Richmond, Fremont, and SF lines. Running the Richmond – Daly City (Red Line) service with twenty minute headways would double train frequency at the Berkeley and Downtown Oakland stations, while reducing the maximum wait for a train from 14 minutes to 9 at the SF stations. Due to lower ridership south of Oakland, the Fremont – Daly City Line would continue to not run on Sunday.

Evening Service Increase: Currently, all SF riders heading to Richmond and Contra Costa County are served by one train every twenty minutes after 7:00 PM. Crowding can be alleviated by extending the direct Richmond service to 8:00 or 9:00 PM.

Friday / Saturday Late Night Service: Many riders have advocated for late night rail service as seen in cities such as New York, DC, and Chicago. Currently, the last train to the East Bay departs Embarcadero at 12:26 PM, with OWL service beginning shortly thereafter. While 24-hour service to the outlying ends of the system is infeasible, the inner core from Richmond to Daly City can be served by one service on a twenty-minute headway, similar to that of the NYC subway. The late-night Richmond – Daly City service would extend operating hours from midnight to 2 AM on Friday and Saturday nights, boosting the late-night economy of the region.

Improvement Priorities – 2017 to 2025

With weekday ridership likely to hit 500,000 by 2025 (a twenty-percent increase), BART has completed its Sustainable Communities Operation Analysis (SCOA) report, which provides an expected guideline to future service increases over the next 15 years. The suggested improvements listed in the report should be implemented as follows:

Introduction of New Train Cars: Beginning in 2017, new BART trains (dubbed the Fleet of the Future) will be gradually introduced to replace current cars. The new trains will differ from the existing fleet by reducing the number of seats per car in favor of increased standing room and a third door in the middle of the car. These train cars should significantly reduce dwell time at busy stations during peak hour by allowing customers to board and disembark more quickly. The new fleet will be needed to provide not only maximum capacity into SF at peak hours, but also service to Berryessa in suburban San Jose after 2017.

With automated announcements and electronic signs to be introduced as well, these trains will likely be dispatched first on the Pittsburg / Bay Point Line and Richmond – Millbrae Line. These two lines are not only the two busiest in the system, but the lines with variable routes (e.g. commute short-turns and different weekend terminals).

Frequency Improvements: Under current signaling, the Transbay Tube, which links SF and the East Bay, is at capacity in the peak direction on weekdays from 7:40 to 8:25 A.M. A train arrives in SF every 2.5 minutes on the following 15-minute takt:

Pittsburg / Bay Point – SFO

Dublin / Pleasanton – Daly City

Pittsburg / Bay Point – Daly City (Rush Hour)

Richmond – Millbrae

Pleasant Hill – Montgomery St (Rush Hour)

Fremont – Daly City

Lengthening all Transbay trains to 10 cars is currently the only means to increase capacity. Even with all trains at max length, the Transbay Tube is likely to be at capacity by 2025. To increase service beyond this cap, several major projects must be completed.

Second platform at Embarcadero Station : The current bottleneck of the system is located at Embarcadero. Because Embarcadero was not in initial BART system design plans, it was effectively built as an infill station late in construction. As a result, its relatively narrow platforms generate high congestion and induce delays as passengers board and exit trains. Building a second platform south of the eastbound track will be needed to reduce congestion and realize higher frequencies.

: The current bottleneck of the system is located at Embarcadero. Because Embarcadero was not in initial BART system design plans, it was effectively built as an infill station late in construction. As a result, its relatively narrow platforms generate high congestion and induce delays as passengers board and exit trains. Building a second platform south of the eastbound track will be needed to reduce congestion and realize higher frequencies. Train control modernization and traction power capacity upgrades : Current signaling, dating back to the 1970s, can only support 24 trains per hour. A new signaling system would enable trains to run closer each other, allowing for 30 tph. Additional service from south of Lake Merritt would be introduced with a 12-minute takt as follows: Pleasant Hill – SFO Berryessa – Glen Park Richmond – Daly City (Rush Hour) Richmond – Millbrae Pittsburg / Bay Point – Daly City Dublin / Pleasanton – Daly City

: Current signaling, dating back to the 1970s, can only support 24 trains per hour. A new signaling system would enable trains to run closer each other, allowing for 30 tph. Additional service from south of Lake Merritt would be introduced with a 12-minute takt as follows:

The infographic below summarizes BART’s operations plans for sometime around 2030. Upon the modernization of the fleet and train control, peak headways will shift from the current 15 minutes to 12. Every outlying terminal will have a minimum of 5 direct trains to SF, and Pleasant Hill will receive 6 minute headways. Five remaining train slots (out of 30) can be used to provide additional peak service to relieve overcrowding as necessary.

Beyond Operations: Capital Construction

A 2-minute headway in SF should be able to handle expected ridership growth over the next 35 years. Nonetheless, the Bay Area continues to urbanize, with increasing demand for transit-friendly origins and destinations. The next article on this blog will take a look at physical infrastructure projects such as new stations and new lines that BART should undergo to increase regional mobility.