First our biggest threat, Teddy, now a Category Four Hurricane! It is still heading straight towards Bermuda. However, a turn is still expected before reaching The Rock. The forecasted track has trended a bit to the east again, with the closest point of approach now at 130 miles (yesterday it was 75 miles) early Monday. Indeed, looking at the European and American ensemble model output (see below, adapted from weathernerds.org), we can at least now see the little speck that is Bermuda outside the different model run tracks. However, the storm is still 2+ days away, so things can still change,it is still too close for comfort. Better be prepared than sorry when dealing with a major hurricane! Also, Teddy is producing large swells that can reach the islands. So it might be a good time to go boogie boarding, but be careful!

Elsewhere, the tropical wave we were following (98L) is now Wilfred, the last name on the official list. It still should move north of the islands, and even if it doesn't it looks like it will have weakened into a tropical wave before it even gets here.

Then we have Tropical Depression Twenty-Two in the Gulf of Mexico. That might become a hurricane, but the biggest threat will be the rain. It is a very slow mover, especially later in the forecast when it moves along the coast of Texas... Expect widespread flooding again...

Finally, about 3500 miles away we have Subtropical Storm Alpha, off the coast of Portugal (yes, that country in Europe!). It is expected to be short lived Looking at the storm tracks in my climatology-section, it seems not to be the first time that Portugal gets hit, but it is a rare occasion. Stay safe everybody! (and sssshhhhhtttt, tomorrow is going to be a special day for a special person). -Gert