The following are the major matchups in this week’s game plus Gator Bait Magazine Editor Marty Cohen’s Keys to Victory for Florida:

UF RUN OFFENSE VS. LSU RUN DEFENSE

For the first time this season when all four tailbacks were available, what many have been clamoring for finally came to fruition – Jordan Scarlett was treated like a number one tailback. Maybe it took an egregious fumble in South Carolina territory on Mark Thompson’s only carry to cement the deal, but Scarlett got the bulk of the carries Saturday against South Carolina and he delivered with a career-high 134 yards on 20 carries. He has clearly been the Gators’ best running back all season, and why he was not utilized in that fashion is a question for others. But behind a patchwork offensive line that by the middle of the second quarter did not have one player who started the season opener at the same position, the Gators ran the ball pretty effectively. LSU’s defensive front is a different beast than South Carolina’s, third in the SEC in allowing just 114 yards per game on the ground. Alabama is the only team that averaged better than four yards a carry against LSU (4.2) and there have been very few explosive plays on the ground against the Tigers – the longest gain allowed has been 35 yards. The Gators need to establish a ground game for many reasons, but it’s a task that’s easier said than accomplished.

EDGE: LSU

UF PASS OFFENSE VS. LSU PASS DEFENSE

The battle of self-proclaimed DBU’s takes place and judging by numbers alone, LSU doesn’t have much of a case. The Tigers are giving up nearly 200 yards a game in the air (198.3), fifth in the SEC and opponents have completed 56.7 percent of their throws, while Florida foes have completed a puny 43.5 percent. One thing both secondaries have in common – not many touchdown passes allowed, LSU just five and Florida six. With Austin Appleby back under center, the Gators were efficient last Saturday, but not explosive. Appleby completed 17 of 21 passes, with two drops, but only threw for 201 yards. The Gators will need some big plays in this contest, and will actually have to try a few downfield. Antonio Callaway was a huge factor against LSU last season and will need to continue his resurgence in Baton Rouge. It’s incumbent upon the offensive line to give Appleby time in the pocket, and the graduate transfer has to take advantage. Perhaps more important, he’s got to remove the sloppy element we’ve seen – the Gators can not afford a poor decision to throw into heavy coverage, like we’ve seen, and can not afford a botched snap near the goal line, like we’ve seen, twice. To win this game, the Gators are going to have to be at the top of their deal in all phases, and it has to start with Appleby.

SLIGHT EDGE: LSU

LSU RUN OFFENSE VS. UF RUN DEFENSE

There’s little to be gained by playing the “what if?” deal, but it’s too bad we won’t be treated to a Florida defense at its healthiest trying to derail LSU’s potent running attack. It would have been a heckuva matchup, but without linebackers Jarrad Davis and Alex Anzalone, end Bryan Cox Jr. and safety Marcus Maye, the Gator defense will be short-handed in trying to slow down Leonard Fournette, Derrius Guice and Co. The Gator defense was terrific in completely stifling South Carolina last weekend, and rookie linebackers David Reese and Kylan Johnson were outstanding in starting debuts. But this is a whole different deal this Saturday. The Tigers pounded out 390 yards on the ground in their last outing at Arkansas, the third time in six SEC games they’ve topped 300 yards. And it’s not just Forunette, who is battling some ankle issues, but his “understudy” Guice blazed for 252 yards on the ground against the same Arkansas defense that held the Gators to 12 yards rushing a week earlier. Obviously this is the key to the whole shooting match – if the Gators can’t slow down the Tigers on the ground, it’s going to be a long afternoon. It’s incumbent upon both Joey Ivie and Caleb Brantley to have the game of their lives, because there is a noticeable dropoff when they’re on the sidelines. It’s not a big deal against South Carolina, it could be costly against LSU.

EDGE: LSU

LSU PASS OFFENSE VS. UF PASS DEFENSE

This is not where LSU does the majority of its damage offensively – the last four games, the Tigers have only throw 21 passes per game behind quarterback Danny Etling, the fellow Purdue transfer. But they can be explosive in the air, with 19 completions of more than 20 yards. With as much attention as the Gators will need to slow the running game, cornerbacks Quincy Wilson and Teez Tabor will be left in plenty of one-on-one coverage and frankly, Tabor needs to pick it up a bit. He’s been burned a number of times and would have given up a 59-yard touchdown last week if not for an easy dropped pass – can’t happen Saturday. The Tigers only complete 14 passes per game and have 8 touchdowns in nine games, but the Gators can’t slip and let a long one or two get completed. Even without Maye, this is an area the Gator need to win decisively.

EDGE: FLORIDA

SPECIAL TEAMS

Simply put, Florida must dominate here for any chance to leave Baton Rouge with the East title. The Gators are superior in many elements – better punter, better kicker, better coverage and return game. Punter Johnny Townsend, arguably the best in the nation, has to be at his field-flipping, pinning-‘en-deep best. Eddy Pineiro has to boom his kickoffs through the endzone and take advantage of every field goal opportunity. And Callaway has to continue his punt return resurgence that he unveiled last week – remember he brought one back for a touchdown against LSU last season. The Gators have to take advantage of decent but not great Tigers’ special teams. Punter Josh Growden is middle-of-the-pack in the SEC and kicker Colby Delahoussaye has hardly been used, just 9 field goal attempts on the season (he’s made 6 with a long of 44 yards). With Les Miles no longer around, the fear of the trick play burn here has diminished.

EDGE: FLORIDA

INTANGIBLES

Yes there’s been plenty said and written about this one, who and how and where it was moved, the game originally supposed to be played in Gainesville on Oct. 8. LSU players, administrators, fans and media were particularly chirpy about this – so be it. Yes there’s an advantage for LSU playing at home, mitigated a bit by the noon kickoff. There has been some enmity built up, and it’s interesting how LSU’s interim coach likes to tell folks his team is 4-1, ignoring the two losses before he took over. Regardless, there is plenty at stake here and LSU gets the slight nod simply because of where the game is held.

SLIGHT EDGE: LSU

OVERVIEW

Not many folks are giving Florida much of a chance, deemed a two-touchdown underdog. Yes LSU is playing better under Ed Orgeron, but you’d think the Tigers beat the New England Patriots four times (not Missouri, Southern Miss, Ole Miss and Arkansas) the way they’re viewed now. LSU is much like Florida, has yet to beat a good team all season, evidenced by the 29-30 record of the six teams it’s beaten. The Tigers are certainly playing better now than early in the year, but this isn’t a slam dunk.

EDGE: LSU

KEYS TO VICTORY

FAST START

We beat this drum every week, but it was easy to see how critical getting off to a good start helped the Gators last week. In two of his three starts, Appleby has been terrific in the first half, and it’s essential for the Gators to not fall behind early. Opponents have only scored 20 points in the first quarter on LSU (Florida’s only given up 17), so an early score or two would be a huge benefit.

RUN THE BALL

No different than the main factor in every game plan, but it’s essential that the Gators have some success on the ground. Not only does it take some heat off Appleby, but it also serves the purpose of keeping the defense rested and Fournette, Guice and those guys on the sidelines. It’s a major test Florida’s patched-up offensive line has to ace.

LET IT ALL HANG OUT

No conservative game plan, no “taking what the defense gives you,” no giving too much credit to the opposition – let it fly. There is an SEC East title on the line, which Florida has won only once since 2009, and the Gators are about a two-touchdown underdog. So take a few chances, get creative, be daring – in other words, go for it. This is a chance to make-or-break a season that hasn’t produced much in the way of highlights. Here’s that opportunity.

MARTY’S PREDICTION: LSU 27, FLORIDA 16