Nancy Pelosi is in the market for a new successor.

The California Democrat had a favored recruit in Rep. Chris Van Hollen, but his decision to run for retiring Sen. Barbara Mikulski’s Senate seat has opened a power vacuum in the caucus.


While Pelosi has given no sign she’s relinquishing her 12-year reign as House Democratic leader anytime soon, Van Hollen’s exit means that more than a dozen members who’ve languished on the second and third tiers of influence can begin jockeying for promotions.

Looking at the contenders, it’s a good bet the next-generation leadership team will be more diverse, younger and more willing to split with Democratic traditions like the rigid adherence to seniority.

“Nothing is automatic when Nancy leaves,” Rep. Raúl Grijalva of Arizona said. “Nothing.”

With an eye to his future, Rep. Joe Crowley has been burnishing his liberal bona fides after getting dinged for being too moderate early in his career. The New York Democrat has also won support from key members of the Congressional Black Caucus, and he’s raised millions in campaign money for colleagues in tight races.

Meanwhile, Reps. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Terri Sewell of Alabama, both relative moderates in the caucus, have already started moving up the ladder. Sinema, the first openly bisexual member of Congress, cut an unconventional path to the upper echelon, calling on the president to delay parts of Obamacare and voting against Pelosi on a number of controversial bills.

Sewell is known for her sprawling network in D.C., and has earned a reputation within the CBC as a team player who can advance the caucus’ agenda within the party. She’s well-liked by the current African-American leaders and has struck up a friendship with Pelosi since being elected in 2010.

The coming succession could also be a prime opportunity for Rep. Elijah Cummings, a respected and senior member of the CBC, to move up. He’s battled firebrand Republicans like Darrell Issa of California on national TV, while staunchly defending the administration from attacks. And in a party that still favors seniority, Cummings could have an edge.

As leader, Pelosi has run a tight operation and built a large network of allies and donors, which gives her substantial sway with members. She’s shaken off any challenges to her leadership, and even after the 2014 midterm elections, which proved disastrous for Democrats, she’s given no sign that her tenure is winding down.

For months, Pelosi had positioned Van Hollen as the top contender to move up in House leadership. He was the go-to policy leader on economic issues, and her allies hosted intimate dinners for the Maryland Democrat with key African-American and Latino members.

His Senate run, though, has intensified the behind-the-scenes scheming over who will take over when she leaves and other senior leaders, such as South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn, the assistant Democratic leader, retire. Interviews with more than three dozen lawmakers and senior staffers reveal a Democratic Caucus rife with ambitious newcomers eager to move up the ranks — and prepared to battle it out if a leadership post opens up.

“There is a pretty large talent pool … in the Democratic Caucus that could emerge whenever the next generation of leadership is called upon. There is a lot of talent,” Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly said.

Hoyer likely to be challenged

House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer is next in line to replace Pelosi, but he’s sure to be challenged by younger members when Pelosi steps aside, given that it will be the first time the position will have been open in more than a decade.

If Hoyer successfully replaces Pelosi, it’s unclear how long he would retain the minority leader post. The 75-year-old could be close to 80 by the time the job becomes available, if Pelosi holds on for even a few more years.

And Hoyer would almost surely have to weather challenges from another Democrat. That’s one of the reasons he’s been cultivating allies within the junior ranks. He’s tapped three rising stars — Sinema, Sewell and Rep. Joaquin Castro of Texas — as chief deputy whips and is helping newer members win leadership posts. He was a driving force behind Washington Rep. Denny Heck being named the recruitment chairman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Experience is also on Hoyer’s side — he served as majority leader from 2007 to 2011 and took over the minority whip post in 2003. And members privately acknowledge that few members are prepared to match Pelosi’s fundraising prowess.

Last cycle, Pelosi raised more than $67 million for the DCCC — a mammoth amount compared with Hoyer’s $3.9 million or the $18 million raised by New York Rep. Steve Israel, another member often cited as a potential heir to Pelosi.

She tapped the New York Democrat to lead the party’s intrachamber evaluation of its message — and with the departure of Van Hollen, Israel is one of her closest allies in the mix of would-be leaders. But to move up, the former DCCC chairman would have to overcome criticisms that he failed to push Democrats into the majority twice when he led the campaign arm.

There also will be criticism that Israel is too tight with Pelosi and fresh blood is needed atop the caucus.

A senior staffer close to Israel said the New York Democrat is focused on his new role as the messaging guru for Democrats and isn’t yet actively seeking out a new, more senior post.

“He’s in this place where he is really happy about his new position and hasn’t really gotten beyond that,” the aide said. “There is not anything specific at this point he is doing to prepare. It’s early.”

Minority members looking up

The Democratic Caucus already has more black, Hispanic and female members than white males, and members want that diversity represented in the top jobs.

Rep. Xavier Becerra, the chairman of the Democratic Caucus, is the party’s highest-ranking Hispanic member. But he’s considering a run to replace retiring California Sen. Barbara Boxer, and members said the spotlight is shifting toward other up-and-coming Latino members like Rep. Ben Ray Luján, current chairman of the DCCC, and Reps. Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico and Tony Cardenas of California.

Cardenas was elected to lead the BOLD Pac — the fundraising arm for the Congressional Hispanic Caucus — as a freshman, and he’s set an ambitious goal for raising money. The California Democrat beat Castro in a secret ballot for the post, which gives him access to a network of fundraisers often overlooked by national Democrats.

Grijalva, a former vice chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, said he expects any would-be leadership contender to make significant outreach to Latinos before announcing a bid.

“Our caucus has a very young group, and I anticipate that whoever is running the show for our side will understand there will have to be special attention paid to Latinos,” Grijalva said. “As we go further into the process, that will be one of our asks.”

Any leadership team will also have to contend with the ambitions of the current sophomore class. The 47 lawmakers elected in 2012 represent a sizable block of the 188 Democrats in Congress — and they’ve formed a close bond after many in their ranks had to survive contentious reelection battles in November.

Members of the group are generally more moderate and willing to cross party lines, and they are already questioning long-held traditions like the adherence to a strict seniority system in the House.

Yet the class is experiencing some churn as members explore other options. Rep. Patrick Murphy of Florida has announced a bid for Sen. Marco Rubio’s Senate seat, and Sinema has been quietly exploring a Senate run in Arizona. Rep. John Delaney of Maryland has also indicated he’ll explore a bid for Mikulski’s seat and is often named as a potential Democratic challenger to Republican Gov. Larry Hogan in 2018.

There will also be a coordinated effort to bring a member of the CBC into the upper ranks of Democratic leaders if Clyburn retires.

CBC Chairman G.K. Butterfield (D-N.C.) said that when Clyburn, a dean among African-American members in the House, departs, black lawmakers will push hard to see someone from their ranks elected to one of the three top spots in leadership.

“It’s imperative that we have an African-American in the top leadership of the Democratic Caucus. All of the Democrats understand that,” Butterfield said. He predicted a “free-fall” if Pelosi, Hoyer and Clyburn all step aside around the same time.

The CBC would has a deep roster to pick from. Cummings has cultivated a national presence after going toe-to-toe with Issa and other GOP critics of the Obama administration. Democratic Reps. Karen Bass of California and Joyce Beatty of Ohio are well-respected within the caucus, and the current seniority-based succession system could favor them.

Rep. Emanuel Cleaver has also emerged as a potential force. He helped whip early support for Rep. Frank Pallone in the New Jersey Democrat’s ranking-member race against California Rep. Anna Eshoo on the Energy and Commerce Committee, and he was a driving force behind the CBC’s aggressive response to a caucuswide discussion of term limits for ranking members that flared up earlier this year. The Missouri Democrat is also a senior whip.

“I do not think it would be orderly. You’ll see some slates emerge,” Butterfield said.

CBC members also point to younger lawmakers like Reps. André Carson of Indiana, Hakeem Jeffries of New York, Marc Veasey of Texas and Sewell as their next generation of leaders.

One non-CBC member who could potentially see big support from the group is Crowley, the Democratic Caucus vice chairman. Crowley has been slowly positioning himself as a viable option for one of the top three spots since joining leadership in 2012.

Crowley ran a contested race against Rep. Barbara Lee of California, an African-American, for his post that year but impressed a number of his supporters in the CBC when he released them to vote however they wanted after Lee jumped into the race. An aide for a senior CBC member said this “classy” gesture will pay dividends for Crowley in the future. Rep. Charles Rangel of New York ultimately gave Crowley an endorsement speech in the Democratic caucus.

And Crowley is also setting himself up as a top fundraiser for Democrats in tough races. He held an event last Wednesday with the Democrats’ 15 so-called frontline members in vulnerable seats at the Democratic Club and plans to max out his donations for the 2016 election cycle. During the 2014 midterm elections, Crowley contributed $1.6 million to lawmakers in contested races — bringing him to close to $8.5 million in total contributions over the last decade.

He’s also trying to shed the moderate reputation he earned as a freshman. He’s been an outspoken advocate for harsher penalties for hate speech, and he authored a letter calling on members to support Carson after he was placed on the Intelligence Committee as that panel’s first Muslim member.

And, of course, Van Hollen could choose to stay in the House — although that’s highly unlikely. Pelosi has publicly mused that she wants her top deputy to stick around in the House, and a number of ardent Van Hollen supporters are quietly letting the Maryland Democrat know that he’ll have their support if he opts out of a Senate race.

Van Hollen would be incredibly well-placed if he does forgo his Senate run. For two months before his surprise Senate bid, Van Hollen was storming the Hill to build a larger network of support. He was one of the select group of members invited by President Barack Obama to dinner during the House Democrats’ issues retreat in Philadelphia. He’d been carefully reaching out to Hispanic and black members to engage with the two minority caucuses early in the budget process and had been holding meetings with sophomore and freshman members since November.

Grijalva, also the co-chair of the Progressive Caucus, said Van Hollen’s trip to Philadelphia to engage with the liberal wing of the party did not go unnoticed.

“The progressive caucus has been an outlier for so long that that gesture was important,” he said. “The politics, certainly in these leadership roles, the proof is in the pudding and the budget is pudding, quite frankly.”

But Van Hollen has a very good chance to win the open Maryland Senate seat. And that means Democrats will be looking to the next generation of lawmakers.

“We have a very full bench from top to bottom,” said Rep. John Larson, the former chairman of the House Democratic Caucus. “This is going to be a pivotal election in 2016 … [and] there is a very talented field of people we have in the House.”

John Bresnahan and Anna Palmer contributed to this report.

Correction: a previous version of this story misstated Rep. Grijalva’s position in the Hispanic Caucus.

CORRECTION: Corrected by: Terry Mulcahy @ 03/25/2015 12:38 PM Correction: a previous version of this story misstated Rep. Grijalva’s position in the Hispanic Caucus.