CLEVELAND, Ohio - Two things are true about finding a so-called franchise quarterback in the NFL Draft.

Nearly all the good ones are picked in the first round.

But even those chosen near the very top of the first round carry a less than 50-50 chance of turning out to be winners. This is the difficulty NFL teams face in trying to fill what arguably is the most important position in all of pro team sports.

What are to odds of success?

To get an idea, we looked back at the 45 quarterbacks chosen in the first round over the previous 16 drafts - starting with the return of the Cleveland Browns in 1999.

17 of these quarterbacks (38 percent) have won a playoff game.

16 of the 45 (36 percent) have winning records as starters during the regular season.

The career passer ratings for only a half-dozen of these quarterbacks is high enough to be ranked in the top half of the league last year.

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Nearly every team would love to land a Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck. But more often, players such as Akili Smith, JaMarcus Russell and Jake Locker turn out not to be the answer.



Cleveland Browns fans know well, having seen their team take four quarterbacks in the first round since returning to the league in 1999. No. 1 overall pick Tim Couch and lower first-round picks Brady Quinn, Brandon Weeden and Johnny Manziel have a combined record of 31-69 as NFL starters.



The record for those taken at the very top of the draft is not much better than first-rounders as a whole.

Eighteen quarterbacks from Couch to Blake Bortles have been picked first, second or third overall in the last 16 years.



Only seven of these very high picks have winning records as starters, and only seven have won playoff games, though recent picks such as Bortles have not had many opportunities yet to build their records.



Fitting both categories are Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Michael Vick and Donovan McNabb. Vince Young has a winning record but no playoff wins. Cam Newton has a playoff win, but is a game under .500 as a starter during the regular season.



Among those picked in the top three who have not panned out to be winners: Akili Smith (3-14), David Carr (23-56), Joey Harringon (26-50) and JaMarcus Russell (7-18).

Yet NFL teams, trying to fill that very important need, keep turning to quarterbacks high in the first round.

Eleven out of the last 16 drafts, a quarterback has gone first overall. These QBs are a combined 445-475-4 as NFL starters in the regular season and 15-17 in the playoffs. Eight of the 15 playoff wins, however, are by Eli Manning.

And all of the quarterbacks have gotten a chance to play. The minimum number of career starts for first-round quarterbacks take from 1996 through 2013 is 14.

Here are some statistics for each of the 45 quarterbacks taken in the first round, beginning with the 1999 draft.

Notes: The players taken in the last few drafts have not had as many opportunities yet to establish themselves. Cleveland.com/datacentral compiled the data based on individual player statistics published by Sports Reference LLC.and the all-time NFL Draft database at cleveland.com/datacentral.

