David Duke

Back in January of last year, former Ku Klux Klan Grand Wizard David Duke flirted with challenging House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, a fellow Republican, in the November jungle primary for Louisiana’s safely red 1st Congressional District. Duke kept silent about a possible bid until this week, when he told the Daily Beast that he’s “very seriously set up an exploratory committee,” and expects to decide in a few days. Louisiana’s filing deadline is July 22.

Scalise, who reportedly once labeled himself “David Duke without the baggage,” earned some ugly headlines in December of 2014 when it emerged that he had given a speech back in 2002 to a group run by Duke. Scalise claimed he didn't know the organization had anything to do with the infamous neo-Nazi, and he denounced all that Duke stands for. Duke was not happy about Scalise’s response, and Duke now says that the shootings of five police officers in Dallas has encouraged him to get in. Duke’s not exactly being subtle about what type of campaign he’d run, saying that, “Unless European Americans stand up, they are going to lose everything they care about in this country.” Duke also has emerged as an enthusiastic supporter of Donald Trump, and Trump has been reluctant to denounce him.

Back in the late 1980s and throughout 1990s, Duke emerged as a notable figure in Louisiana GOP politics, to the dismay of state and national GOP leaders. Duke won a state House seat in 1989 in suburban New Orleans, but lost his 1990 U.S. Senate bid and 1991 gubernatorial race. As recently as 1999, Duke came close to making the runoff for the old version of this congressional district. However, as we noted last year, Duke won’t have an easy time unseating Scalise if he gets in. Back in the 2004 open-seat race here, Duke's longtime ally Roy Anderson ran (as a Democrat!) and could only muster up 7 percent of the vote.

Duke himself doesn’t exactly seem beloved either: A February 2013 PPP poll gave him a 9-77 unfavorable rating statewide with Republicans. It's also worth noting that in the faithful 1991 gubernatorial race between Duke and Democrat Edwin Edwards, Duke did poorly in the areas that make up the 1st District (he even lost the very conservative St. Tammany Parish, an impressive feat for a Republican).

And if Duke does take on Scalise, he can't count on a low-turnout primary carrying him to victory. In Louisiana, all the candidates will run together in November during the high-turnout presidential contest. In theory, Duke could keep Scalise from taking a majority and force him into a December runoff, but that won’t be easy. Scalise has a long career in suburban New Orleans politics, and he doesn’t appear to have alienated enough conservative voters to cost him re-election against any opponent. Democratic voters also would almost certainly unify behind Scalise in a runoff in the face of a Duke victory.