The Boston Celtics project to be one of the best teams in the NBA, but there are several teams hoping to prevent their march to an 18th championship in franchise history. To preview the Celtics' top rivals, MassLive's Celtics beat writers Tom Westerholm and Fred Katz are breaking down each matchup in detail. Next up: The Houston Rockets.

Previously…

How the Celtics match up with the Philadelphia 76ers

How the Celtics match up with the Los Angeles Lakers

How the Celtics match up with the Golden State Warriors

If the Warriors were so unbeatable last year, the Rockets were the only team who didn’t realize it. Houston took a three-games-to-two Western Conference Finals lead on the Golden State before an injury to All-Star point guard Chris Paul predated two consecutive losses and a series defeat.

The Rockets, still second-best in the Western Conference, have a chance to go to the Finals again this season, albeit a small one. If they get there and play the Celtics, here is what to expect:

(AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

Last Year's Results

It was fitting that the Celtics and Rockets split their two-game season series in 2017-18, considering both games came within one possession. The Celtics won the first matchup 99-98 after slithering guard Marcus Smart took a couple of charges in the final seconds that Houston star James Harden totally and completely thought were the right calls. The second game was a late-season slugfest that Houston sped through with a 123-120 victory.

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(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

When They Play

Dec. 27: @ Houston

Mar. 3: @ Boston

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(AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)

What is Houston’s biggest change?

The Rockets openly engineered themselves to match up against the eventual champion Warriors last year. They just barely missed out on producing the league's most efficient offense, a barrage that also harbored one of the greatest isolation attacks of all time. And in the process, they pieced together a defense specifically built to counter Golden State.

They signed versatile defenders P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute to add to the stringy Trevor Ariza, the stocky Eric Gordon and the ever-feisty Chris Paul, who came over in a trade. The strategy was prescient: implement a switch-dependent defense from day one so that when the Warriors come around during the Western Conference Finals, there’s already about 90 games of familiarity there.

Houston can play this year similarly. But it doesn’t have the personnel that turned its defense into one of the league’s more stifling a season ago.

Ariza signed with the Phoenix Suns. Mbah a Moute, who battled shoulder problems all year and missed most of the conference finals, went to the L.A. Clippers. The Rockets brought in forward James Ennis, guard Michael Carter-Williams and, most famously, 10-time All-Star Carmelo Anthony, who could slide Tucker to the starting small forward spot.

All the moves mean Houston may not be able to execute exactly the same as it did last year. Of course, the Rockets are still overridden with talent.

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(AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

So, who can the Celtics attack defensively?

The answer starts with Anthony, whose role is uncertain for the moment.

Some reports indicate the future Hall of Famer (yes, future Hall of Famer) could come off the bench. Doing so would mean an obvious change in sentiment from a year ago, when Anthony wouldn't even hear out the possibility of becoming a reserve with the Oklahoma City Thunder. If he is in the starting lineup, it grows tougher for Houston to send its bigs to the perimeter.

Anthony’s flaws become more exploitable during a playoff series. That showed during the Thunder’s six-game loss to the Utah Jazz in last season’s first round. Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell called for ball screen after ball screen until he could get Anthony to switch onto him. The veteran forward would often break coverage in doing so. Once Mitchell got what he wanted, a one-on-one matchup with a 15-year veteran far heavier-footed than he, the game was his. By the end of the series, the Thunder were sitting Anthony during closing time.

There is, however, a major difference between what Utah did to Anthony and what the Celtics could: Boston wouldn’t need to worry about forcing switches. It could go right at him.

Assuming the Celtics’ projected starting lineup (or at least their projected most used lineup) is in the game — meaning point guard Kyrie Irving, wings Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward as well as center Al Horford — Anthony would be guarding someone who can create against him from the start. Hayward can iso and score for himself or find others. So can Tatum. Brown isn't as optimal a choice as the first two, but he can facilitate offense on his own.

Even Horford could find ways to take advantage — either with or without the ball. He can set screens and send the Rockets defense into confusion. He can create from the top of the key. Old-school posting up might not be the way to go, considering Anthony’s best defensive trait is probably his strength. (That’s one of a few reasons Anthony could end up playing center with bench lineups, a role the Rockets used Tucker in last season.)

But the Celtics can iso on Anthony. They make him guard funky pick-and-roll combinations that have him defending the front ends with someone like Harden defending the screeners. (Both players are more comfortable guarding opposite ends of such plays.) Boston can attack from there. You can bet that’s exactly what it'd do as long as Anthony received time in the series.

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(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

Give me some stuff about P.J. Tucker.

Tucker found success playing the 4 and 5 spots last year and switching onto smaller players. This year, when he could step into the starting lineup, he’ll have to start against smaller guys more.

Guarding wings is not a massive adjustment for Tucker, one of the league's best defenders. And defending small forwards and power forwards isn't all that different in 2018. Tucker is more than capable of doing it. But sliding Tucker to the 3, where he would have to go if Anthony were the starting power forward, could open up matchup possibilities for the Celtics.

Boston doesn't have to deviate from sticking its five best players in its starting lineup, but it can use three-guard units against Houston groups that play a front court of Tucker, Anthony and Capela. Using Irving, backup point guard Terry Rozier and Smart together could be enough to bother Tucker, who's stocky and quick, but isn't as dominant against small guards as he is against bigger perimeter guys.

Houston could counter by using Ennis, a rangy defender, in place of Anthony. It could pull Tucker or Anthony for one of the league's best sixth men, Eric Gordon. And Gordon is a better player than Tucker in a vacuum. The three-guard lineups, though, could help keep one of the Rockets' best defenders a bit more inconsequential in the series. And Rozier's and Smart's abilities to handle and create while still battling bigger guys on defense make such a move possible.

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(Bob Levey/Getty Images)

What does Al Horford’s presence mean for Clint Capela?

Capela has become one of the league’s best centers defending away from the rim. It’s one of the many reasons the Rockets assembled such high-caliber defensive work a season ago. And he’s still getting better. He’s 24 years old and continually improves from season to season.

But here’s where Horford’s value shows. He’s simply too good of a shooter at this point for Capela to hang around the rim and worry about paint deterrence. It’s not like Capela becomes unplayable in those moments. He’s too disciplined a defender for his impact to disappear just because of a stretch 5. But he can’t be as handy.

It’s similar to the effect the Celtics saw during this past season’s Eastern Conference Semifinals, when Boston bogged down 76ers center Joel Embiid’s defensive contributions enough that Philly switched the man who finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting off Horford and onto forward Marcus Morris. Embiid wasn’t bad in that role. He just couldn’t be the NBA’s second-best defender. And next year’s roster, which projects a healthy Hayward, doesn’t include a non-creating wing like Morris to hide a big on.

Capela defending Horford also means lanes to the rim could open up more, especially if Anthony, a leisurely help defender, is the power forward next to him. And it means not as much rim protection when guys actually get close.

The Celtics’ drivers, namely Irving, whose bouquet of layups is as rosy as anyone’s, can benefit from the situation.

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(Omar Rawlings/Getty Images)

So, who is guarding whom?

The Celtics’ starters project as Irving, Brown, Tatum, Hayward and Horford. The Rockets’ project as Paul, Harden, Tucker, Anthony (more on this in a few paragraphs) and Capela.

Capela guarding Horford is the obvious matchup. Paul would defend Irving, as well. The nine-time All-Star remains one of the league’s most disciplined and generally annoying defenders into his 30s. The rest is not quite as intuitive, though Anthony guarding Brown seems like the safest assignment for Houston. Brown won’t work with the ball quite as often as Tatum or Hayward.

That leaves some combination of Tucker and Harden on Tatum and Hayward with Tucker taking the higher-usage player of the two (probably Hayward).

Keep in mind, as well, that Houston coach Mike D’Antoni has shown no issues at all with smaller players guarding bigs. In this case, that could refer to “mismatches” that include Horford or backup center Aron Baynes. Harden has routinely defended power forwards for the past two seasons, and though one clip of YouTube lowlights irreparably damaged the reigning MVP’s defensive reputation (because that’s how we judge defense in 2018, apparently), he’s been successful pushing and elbowing with bullies. The stout Tucker, meanwhile, played the 5 in plenty of 2017-18 reserve crews.

Houston doesn’t have to close with this lineup, either. It could insert Gordon into a finishing or starting group, too.

And that leads to two essential questions about the Rockets’ makeup…

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(Tim Warner/Getty Images)

What role will Anthony take?

Anthony bookended his only season with the Thunder with two of the NBA season's most quotable moments. A reporter asked him at September's media day about the possibility of coming off the bench. He chuckled and responded with a light-hearted inquiry of his own: "Who, me?"

His tone changed but position didn’t when the same reporter asked a nearly identical question at the end of a season that turned out the worst of his career: Coming off the bench was “out the question.”

Will it be unimaginable in Houston, too? And if it is, will Anthony accept starting but not closing, as he did during Oklahoma City’s final two 2018 playoff games?

There’s not as much risk in signing Anthony as there was when the Thunder traded for him. The Rockets didn’t give anything up to acquire him. He’s making a minimum salary compared to tens of millions of dollars. And he didn’t bring a no-trade clause with him to Houston. If the experiment deteriorates, it’s easy for the Rockets to fix.

Yet, it doesn't have to fail.

Paul is one of his closest life friends. And the Rockets might be the quintessential organization to encourage one of the greatest scorers ever to hoist loads of spot-up 3s that Harden and Paul create for him. He took and made more 3-pointers than ever a season ago. The Rockets, meanwhile, attempted about 45 percent more triples than the Thunder did. If Anthony’s numbers follow that trend, it means he’s taking nearly 10 long balls per 36 minutes.

Of course, the Rockets ran more isolation than any team last season. If Anthony looks at Harden and Paul, two of the league’s most effective one-on-one performers, and wants to do the same, the offense won’t flow as fluidly.

Still, there are basketball reasons to prefer Anthony as a starter. He’ll create loads of space for Harden and Paul if he's willing to chuck spot-up 3s ceaselessly, even if he shoots merely an average efficiency on catch-and-shoot opportunities. Defenders don’t leave 10-time All-Stars open. Certainly, they free them less often than they do James Ennis.

But if Anthony, however, is willing to come off the bench (or at least play with bench units), that leads to another possible adjustment...

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(Bob Levey/Getty Images)

What would a second-string Anthony mean for Eric Gordon?

Let’s say Anthony either comes off the bench or D’Antoni staggers him so he plays with reserve lineups. How does that affect Gordon, who’s now a perennial Sixth Man of the Year contender?

The Rockets staggered Paul’s and Harden’s minutes a season ago so that at least one of them was always on the floor. Harden’s minutes were rigid: He’d exit play at the ends of odd quarters and re-enter about halfway into even ones to finish the half. Paul would fill in for those six-minute stretches at the start of the second and fourth.

It gave Houston two top-notch scorers and handlers with the bench in Paul and Gordon. Around them were a cycle of Tucker, Mbah a Moute, power forward Ryan Anderson, quick-triggered wing Gerald Green and veteran big man Nene, none of which is a creator. This year, Carter-Williams and Ennis enter the pool. But if Anthony acts as a third creator, does Gordon become the tertiary one for 12-to-15 minutes a night?

Gordon was a strong enough bench piece last season that Houston’s reserves thrived even during the more-than-quarter-of-the-season that Paul missed. The Rockets outscored opponents by 5.3 points per 100 possessions when Harden and Paul were both off the court but Gordon was on. When all three were missing, opponents outscored Houston by 21.5 points per 100.

But Anthony's potential presence would carry a change. If he doesn't revise his game, Gordon will.

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(Omar Rawlings/Getty Images)

Exactly what percentage of the game will Marcus Smart be either falling, sliding, slipping, dropping, diving or tumbling?

Can a percentage be greater than 100?

Smart is only five months removed from this:

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Smart’s and Rozier’s presences are why the defensive matchups aren’t as simple as designating one starter on another. The game’s most important moments don’t have to include solely first stringers — for either team.

Smart remains one of the league’s most ideal Harden defenders for unique reasons. Most of the best Harden defenders are elite perimeter stoppers whose discipline helps against the king of NBA foul-drawing. Brown, for example, would fit that category. Smart is incessantly aggressive, but he also flings limbs as interminably as Harden does. It’s frustrating, and it worked a season ago.

Harden shot only 27 percent from the field and 21 percent from 3-point range against the Celtics when Smart was on the floor last year. That success hasn’t carried over to other seasons, when one of the league’s best scorers bucketed at his usual rates. But Smart still made sure to defend in one specific way: falling, sliding, slipping, dropping, driving or tumbling something like 107 percent of the time.

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(Gene Sweeney Jr./Getty Images)

Break it down: How do the Celtics guard Harden and Paul?

It's not like the Celtics threw Smart on Harden for an entire game. Brown began games on the reigning MVP this past season and did an admirable job sticking with him and keeping him off the line, especially for a 21-year-old.

Horford can drop back on pick-and-rolls and switch onto Harden or Paul, if necessary — but tossing him onto either of the game’s best perimeter creators isn’t the preference. Horford has to play a few inches more off guards, which opens up room for Harden to launch his signature, step-back 3. He got Horford with that move more than once after forcing switches this past season.

Dropping back on Harden pick-and-rolls, and leaving the mid-range area free, is an intuitive strategy against a team that will organize mid-game protests of long 2s before actually taking any. Of course, giving up too much space allows Harden, one of the world's two or three best 3-point creators, to kick to spot-ups from there. Big men will be more weary of playing even to the screen against Paul, who will actually take 15-footers, especially from the right side of the free-throw line.

Of course, Boston has to make sure it talks around and after pick-and-rolls. The Celtics had one of the league’s best-communicating defenses last season, thanks in part to Horford. But even that’s not always enough against a group with facilitators like Paul and Harden. The Rockets don’t pass much (they were last in the NBA in total passes last year, per Second Spectrum tracking), but they pass smart.

Here’s Paul setting up a swing around the perimeter for an open corner 3 after both Horford and Irving chase him to the right side. Brown closes out quickly on Tucker, as does Tatum on Harden, but no one gets to Ariza.

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The Rockets will take advantage if a defense requires too many rotations. It’s why many teams play conservative pick-and-roll coverage against them. So, maybe Boston simply goes with something that keeps it out of rotations.

That would mean not helping aggressively off shooters. The Celtics have the one-on-one defenders to implement that. Smart can pester Harden or Paul by himself. Brown has the feet and length to stay in front. Rozier can do some draping. Tatum or Hayward can shift over to Harden. Morris can provide a fresh look off the bench. Irving is the weakest of the perimeter defenders, and he guarded Paul last year, but would have help behind him.

If the Rockets put any two of the Celtics' perimeter players in a pick-and-roll, it's an easy switch for Boston. That's the beauty of playing such interchangeable players. But Harden and Paul are first-ballot Hall of Famers because they can take care of even the best — without direct help from teammates.

The Rockets averaged 119.1 points per 100 possessions, best in the NBA, on plays that ended in Harden isolations, per Synergy Sports. They averaged 115.7, third in the league, on ones ending in isos from Paul. For context, the 2016-17 Warriors, who have the greatest scoring efficiency since NBA.com started tracking the stat in 1996, averaged 113.2 points per 100.

So, it's inevitable. Harden and Paul are creating points almost no matter what.

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(Bill Baptist/NBAE via Getty Images)

How could all this change?

We’re still half-a-year from the NBA’s trade deadline, and just because Houston lost a couple of defensive-minded wings this summer doesn’t mean it will still be lacking there come the spring of 2019.

The Rockets will look to scoop a "3-and-D" contributor, and there are ones who will be scoopable. They may, however, have to get creative.

Most of the Rockets’ highly-paid contributors are under contract for at least the next two seasons. The only one of those who isn’t a wing is Anderson, who has two years and almost $42 million remaining on his contract and who general manager Daryl Morey has notoriously tried to deal for some time now. The roster makeup likely eliminates the possibility of bringing in a player with multiple seasons remaining on his contract from a team who wants to offload 2019-20 money to free up space for next summer, when plenty of organizations will have cap room for a free agency class loaded with stars.

The New York Knicks, for example, could want to exchange someone like shooting guard Courtney Lee, who’s a free agent in 2020, for expiring contracts, an act that would make opening up max cap room in 2019 more feasible. But the Rockets, whose highest-paid upcoming free agents are minimum guys (Nene has a $3.8 million player option next season), would struggle to match salaries with expirings.

Morey could pull in a third team, as he’s tried to do in previous negotiations involving Anderson. And the Rockets GM is one of the NBA’s savviest. A move would be knotty, but don’t doubt Morey’s inventiveness.

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(Omar Rawlings/Getty Images)

How star-studded could the bench lineups become?

If Paul plays with the bench once again this year, there could be more All-Star appearances in Houston’s majority-reserve units than there are in most starting lineups. Paul and Anthony combine for 19. Gordon has a Sixth Man of the Year. Nene has never made an All-Star team but came close in his prime and is nearing 11,000 points and 6,000 rebounds for his career. Anderson is a former Most Improved Player who’s averaged 16-or-more points four times.

The Celtics, meanwhile, are bound to stagger at least one of their starters with the bench. Smart is a big name now on a $52 million contract. Rozier earned notoriety during the spring’s playoff run. Morris, who defended primary options last season, will see time on Houston’s big names.

Infusing Irving or Horford or Hayward into the reserves places All-Star appearances next to Houston’s. It means there wouldn’t be many quiet moments during a seven-game series between these two.

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Fred Katz covers the Celtics for MassLive.com. Follow him on Twitter: @FredKatz.

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