Days after his party was dealt a blow in the midterm elections in the US, Donald Trump flew to France for the 100th anniversary of the end of the first world war and took out his anger on one of his favorite targets – America’s allies. Trump got into a war of words with the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and when world leaders paid their respects at the cemeteries of the fallen soldiers, Trump preferred to sulk in his hotel room rather than honor the fallen.

With the 2020 presidential campaign about to begin, Trump’s childish and dangerous foreign policy is only going to get worse.

Trump’s foreign policy is dominated by his desire to “win”, defined narrowly as drawing plaudits for Trump personally, and often connected to campaign promises. Pull out of the Iran deal; check. Withdraw from the Paris climate agreement; check. Withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal; check. Forget the fact that these moves have been harmful to US national security; Trump thinks they are victories in his mano-a-mano foreign policy in which he squares up against foreign countries in pursuit of the “better deal” and rips up any deal – no matter how advantageous to the United States – that he did not strike.

With Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives, Trump can no longer easily advance domestic legislative priorities. Like his predecessors who faced opposition control in Congress, in the next two years Trump is likely to focus more on foreign policy. While foreign policy is dominated by unpredictable external events, and issues like North Korea and Iran will remain prominent, expect Trump to try to advance what he thinks are foreign policy “wins” in the context of his re-election campaign.

Trump ramps up Macron spat by mocking France in world wars Read more

Breaking alliances. Trump has long railed against America’s allies, viewing alliances as protection rackets in which the United States protects countries in return for payments – which, of course, is not true. Returning from France this month, Trump again attacked US allies: “It is time that these very rich countries either pay the United States for its great military protection, or protect themselves”. The growing tensions with Europe are spiraling: both the French president and German foreign minister have called for Europe to develop strategies to deal with the threat posed by the United States, a development inconceivable just a couple of years ago. The transatlantic alliance could face a breaking point, and don’t be surprised if the president with a notoriously thin skin attempts to withdraw the United States from Nato. And as Trump continues to convince himself that diplomacy with North Korea is going well, Trump could agree to end America’s alliance with South Korea and remove US troops from the Korean peninsula – two top asks of Kim Jong-un that also happen to be Trump priorities – as part of some perceived grand deal with Kim Jong-un.

Chinese “meddling” in US politics. Trump’s go-to strategy to deflect negative attention is gaslighting. So, as Robert Mueller’s investigation picks up the pace and accusations of Trump campaign collusion with Russia in the 2016 election grow louder, Trump will wield accusations of supposed Chinese interference in US politics as a cudgel on the campaign trail. As part of a more assertive China policy, Trump has taken to accusing China of supposedly interfering in US elections and politics to help Trump’s opponents by targeting tariffs against Trump political allies and deploying propaganda. As a response to the accusation that Trump got help from Russia in 2016, look for Trump to accuse Democrats of doing the same thing with China (which, of course, is beyond preposterous).

Trump hails 'wonderful new trade deal' with Mexico and Canada Read more

Trade wars. On trade, Trump has two modes: trade war and self-proclaimed (but fake) victory. On those trade disputes that Trump has renegotiated – the revised US-South Korea trade deal and the new US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) – Trump will claim victory in the run-up to 2020, even though the deals do little to nothing for America. But where Trump sees no deal, he is more likely to double down with tariffs, again regardless of the fact that they are doing little beyond benefiting certain favored corporate allies. Unless he can spin new deals in the coming months, as the campaign season gets going watch out for an even hotter US-China trade war, and perhaps a renewal of the transatlantic trade war. As the transatlantic relationship frays further, Trump may lean more on trade criticisms of Europe, as he did with a tweet taking aim at the lack of tariffs on French wine amid his recent dispute with Macron.

A white nationalist immigration policy. Sending the US military to the border with Mexico as a political stunt in the days before the midterm election to stop a non-existent threat reinforced just how far Trump will go to gain an electoral advantage – and just how central racism and xenophobia are to how he appeals to his political base. As 2020 approaches, Trump is likely to push even harder on his racist and un-American immigration policies. Watch out for the unveiling of more restrictive policies on refugees and legal immigrants, and potentially more outrageous, and dangerous, stunts like sending the military to the border.

Trump’s foreign policy has been devastating for US national security and the world. Trump has demolished America’s influence abroad, turned America’s closest friends away from us, and emboldened America’s adversaries. But in Trump’s eyes, this is victory. Expect the next two years to be filled with an even more virulent form of “America First”.