President George W. Bush lands on an aircraft carrier and declares “Mission Accomplished” in 2003. America is still involved in Iraq. (White House)

With the daily bombshells coming out about Donald Trump’s alliance with the Russian government, it’s easy to ignore the many mini-scandals going on. Last week it was revealed that the Trump administration had ordered the Pentagon to draw up plans for a strike on Iran.

This was shocking but not surprising. The Trump administration has long wanted to change the Obama’s administration policies of containment and dialogue, for a more aggressive stance.

Here are five reasons why that’s a really bad idea:

The last war in the Middle East went so well. It’s shocking to think that any American would want to start another war in the Middle East when the last one went so well. We’re still dealing with the fallout from the Iraq war. President George W. Bush’s military adventure has been described as “the worst foreign policy disaster since Vietnam.” Winning the war was easy, but America lost the peace — badly. Iraq was left in disarray, law and order broke down and it also created ISIS, a terrorist group even worse than Al-Qaeda. Even Al-Qaeda operatives balked at the atrocities ISIS was willing to commit such as burning prisoners of war alive and slavery. ISIS grew out of Iraqi soldiers who were held captive in large American jails after Saddam Hussein was overthrown. Trump blamed ISIS on Obama, but like most things he says, it was incorrect. Apart from setting back the American taxpayers more than $1 trillion, the war also caused a mass exodus from the country, led to massive corruption in the Military-Industrial Complex and killed more than 5,000 Americans and at least 100,000 Iraqis. But it got “Dubya” reelected!

It’s shocking to think that any American would want to start another war in the Middle East when the last one went so well. We’re still dealing with the fallout from the Iraq war. President George W. Bush’s military adventure has been described as “the worst foreign policy disaster since Vietnam.” Winning the war was easy, but America lost the peace — badly. Iraq was left in disarray, law and order broke down and it also created ISIS, a terrorist group even worse than Al-Qaeda. Even Al-Qaeda operatives balked at the atrocities ISIS was willing to commit such as burning prisoners of war alive and slavery. ISIS grew out of Iraqi soldiers who were held captive in large American jails after Saddam Hussein was overthrown. Trump blamed ISIS on Obama, but like most things he says, it was incorrect. Apart from setting back the American taxpayers more than $1 trillion, the war also caused a mass exodus from the country, led to massive corruption in the Military-Industrial Complex and killed more than 5,000 Americans and at least 100,000 Iraqis. But it got “Dubya” reelected! Did anyone talk about the cost? As Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) said, no one talks about the cost when it comes to military adventures. But when you bring up universal healthcare, the first Republicans say is “How are we going to pay for it?” This was something that Bush II never considered during the Iraq war. He actually slashed taxes while he was conducting the war. This has never happened in recorded history! The Iraq and Afghanistan wars have cost more than $2 trillion combined, and yet the Trump administration wants to start another costly war? According to Col. (rtd.) Lawrence Wilkerson, a conflict with Iran would be significantly more costly. Iran is twice the size of Iraq, and it would require a 10-year commitment and about 500,000 troops, according to Wilkerson.

As Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) said, no one talks about the cost when it comes to military adventures. But when you bring up universal healthcare, the first Republicans say is “How are we going to pay for it?” This was something that Bush II never considered during the Iraq war. He actually slashed taxes while he was conducting the war. This has never happened in recorded history! The Iraq and Afghanistan wars have cost more than $2 trillion combined, and yet the Trump administration wants to start another costly war? According to Col. (rtd.) Lawrence Wilkerson, a conflict with Iran would be significantly more costly. Iran is twice the size of Iraq, and it would require a 10-year commitment and about 500,000 troops, according to Wilkerson. We would be fighting someone else’s war. Neoconservatives have long wished for a war against Iran. They seem to love wars, as long as it’s not their children doing the fighting. This is not surprising since the United States is still currently involved in two major wars. Iran would be the third. But Israel and Saudia Arabia want to see the Iranian regime removed. Israel is concerned that a potentially nuclear-armed Iran could launch a strike against them. The Saudis and the Iranian regime have been longtime enemies over their religious differences. (The Saudis are Sunni Muslims, while the Iranian mullahs are Shiites.) The Saudis are also threatened by Iran’s growing power in the region. However, both Saudi Arabia and Isreal would rather have American soldiers do the fighting. So both regimes have been whispering to neocons about how they would like to see the Iranian regime taken down. If you think that’s an outrageous concept, consider the fact that American military personnel are currently supporting the Saudis in their bloody war in Yemen. The conflict has killed up to 50,000 people and lead to a huge humanitarian crisis.

Neoconservatives have long wished for a war against Iran. They seem to love wars, as long as it’s not their children doing the fighting. This is not surprising since the United States is still currently involved in two major wars. Iran would be the third. But Israel and Saudia Arabia want to see the Iranian regime removed. Israel is concerned that a potentially nuclear-armed Iran could launch a strike against them. The Saudis and the Iranian regime have been longtime enemies over their religious differences. (The Saudis are Sunni Muslims, while the Iranian mullahs are Shiites.) The Saudis are also threatened by Iran’s growing power in the region. However, both Saudi Arabia and Isreal would rather have American soldiers do the fighting. So both regimes have been whispering to neocons about how they would like to see the Iranian regime taken down. If you think that’s an outrageous concept, consider the fact that American military personnel are currently supporting the Saudis in their bloody war in Yemen. The conflict has killed up to 50,000 people and lead to a huge humanitarian crisis. It would put an enormous strain on the military. The American military is currently still fighting two major conflicts and involved in 76 counterterrorism operations around the world. This puts an enormous strain on America in terms of finances and human resources. The military has been so strapped for personnel during the recent conflicts that soldiers often go on multiple deployments. This was displayed in the movie, “American Sniper,” where Navy SEAL Chris Kyle is deployed to Iraq four times. This put a huge strain on him and his family. Society also feels the effect. We’re currently dealing with a large number of cases of Iraq war vets who are dealing with PTSD. Homelessness rates usually shoot up after the end of a major conflict too. Also, returning vets often lead to another form of domestic unrest. In 2009, David Johnson, a Department of Homeland Security intelligence analyst, warned of a coming wave of right-wing domestic terrorism. He suggested some soldiers who returned from the Iraq war could grow frustrated with the poor economic conditions and take up arms against the government. This report was so controversial, it was suppressed by the administration and ridiculed by the right-wing media. However, there have been links between military personnel and violent right-wing groups. “The past two decades have seen multiple attacks from right-wing extremist veterans, from Wade Michael Page, who trained at Fort Bragg, to the group of former and active-duty soldiers in Georgia, who collected weapons to carry out a plan to assassinate President Obama,” said David Sterman in “The Atlantic.” Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh served during the first Iraq war before becoming disillusioned and turning on his country. More recently Lance Cpl. Vasillios Pistolis was expelled from the Marine Corps, after he was discovered to have participated in the Unite the Right March.

A lot of other Americans could be fear mongered into believing Iran is an existential threat and would also get behind Trump. Dubya wrote the playbook, all Trump has to do is follow it.

It’s the perfect “Wag the Dog” scenario. “Wag the Dog” was a 1997 movie in which a scandal-plagued president launched a phony war to distract the American people. Who does that sound like? And sadly this would work again. Bush II did it during the Iraq war. After he narrowly squeaked by Sen. John Kerry in the 2004 presidential race, many pundits said, “Americans don’t like to change horses in midstream.” During the run-up to the Iraq war, Vice President Dick Cheney and other White House officials were reading books about how former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher used the Falklands war to win reelection. If Trump launched a war against Iran, all the jingoistic Republicans would rally around him. Fundamentalist Christians, who believe in End Times fantasies, would also fall in line because they think a war with Iran would bring Jesus back. A lot of other Americans could be fear mongered into believing Iran is an existential threat and would also get behind Trump. Dubya wrote the playbook, all Trump has to do is follow it.

I would like to think that cooler heads and professional soldiers would talk the Trumpists out of this war. But many of them are gone. Former Defense Sec. Gen. (rtd.) James Mattis quit after he realized Trump seemed to be following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s lead. Gen. Anthony Zinni also resigned from his State Department post and former White House Chief of Staff Gen. John Kelly was fired.

One thing we’ve learned about Trump is to expect the unexpected. He was willing to pull out of NATO, so I could easily see him going to war with Iran, if it distracted the public from his problems and won him reelection in 2020.