OTTAWA—Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are in majority government territory, according to the latest survey from Forum Research.

The Forum poll, conducted Dec. 10 and 11, found that more than four in 10 respondents would vote Liberal if an election were held today.

The Liberals now sit at 41 per cent, a five-point jump from Forum’s polling in November. The Conservatives were second, with 33 per cent of respondents saying they’d vote for Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s party.

The opposition New Democrats, led by Thomas Mulcair, are polling a distant third. Less than a fifth of respondents (17 per cent) said they would vote for the NDP, largely unchanged from November.

Forum’s poll positions have not changed since March 2013, when Trudeau took over the third-place Liberals. But over the last six months, the Conservatives have narrowed the gap.

Throughout the period, Mulcair’s NDP has remained in third place. The Forum poll notes, however, that Mulcair’s personal approval rating has increased to 42 per cent. Among approval for party leaders, Mulcair is polling second, with Trudeau at 46 per cent and Harper at 34 per cent.

The Liberals are polling ahead in Quebec and Ontario, two vote-rich provinces crucial for success in the 2015 federal election. Their lead in both provinces is narrow, however.

In Ontario, 42 per cent of respondents said they’d vote Liberal, with 38 per cent lining up behind the government. In Quebec, 37 per cent of respondents said they’d vote Liberal, while 25 per cent plan to vote NDP.

A separate poll released Monday for iPolitics had the race between Liberals and Conservatives much closer. Pollster EKOS has the Liberals at 31.8 per cent, the Conservative government at 30.8 per cent, and the New Democrats at 20 per cent.

The Forum poll surveyed 1,658 voting-aged Canadians on December 10 and 11, and is believed to be accurate within two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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