“We have two Australias,” says regional economist Terry Rawnsley. “One which has benefited from a generation of economic change including deregulation, reduced trade barriers, technological change and globalisation is in the inner cities. Then we have another Australia which has struggled with these changes, including the loss of manufacturing jobs, increased job insecurity, little growth in wealth.” Loading Morrison's aim to be a unifier is very ambitious, but his newfound hero status could help. Despite winning government with just a two-seat majority, he has been hailed a conquering champion. Malcolm Turnbull's single-seat win in 2016 was deemed a devastating political setback. The contrast underscores the importance of expectations in politics. Not one major polling series gave the Coalition a two-party lead in nearly 200 results published through the entire last parliamentary term, analysis by William Bowe, editor of The Poll Bludger website, shows. Labor was such a strong favourite on betting markets one bookmaker paid out for the ALP before polling day.

While the result was a surprise, the numbers in parliament haven’t shifted much. The Coalition won 76 seats in 2016 and the latest count suggests it will have 78 in the new Parliament which has gained an additional seat after electoral redistributions. Just nine seats are set to change hands – the lowest since 2001. A tale of two countries. Credit:Kate Geraghty The Coalition won a little more than 51 per cent of the vote after preferences, the third time in the last four elections Australian voters have split close to 50:50. “You might argue that if the polls weren’t out there’s nothing much surprising about this election result,” says Bowe. “A Coalition government got a third term, like they usually do. If you ignore the polls it fits pretty well with the rhythms of electoral history in Australia.”

Even so, voting trends exposed some deep political fault lines. Loading One runs though Australia’s capital cities, home to two-thirds of the population. Inner-metropolitan areas, which have experienced strong economic conditions over the past five years generally swung to Labor, or in some cases, the Greens. But the Coalition polled well in outer suburbs and most regional areas. In Sydney and Melbourne there were striking swings against the Liberals in the party's traditional strongholds. The defeat of former prime minister Tony Abbott, at the hands of independent Zali Steggall, in the harbour-side seat of Warringah was emblematic of the trend.

And yet about 70 kilometres west of Warringah the Liberals won the seat of Lindsay, on Sydney's western fringe, with a decisive swing. The party is also likely to win the neighbouring electorate of Macquarie from Labor, although the result remains in doubt. In Melbourne there were notable swings to Labor and the Greens in the Liberal bastions of Kooyong, Higgins and Goldstein. But the party comfortably held the outer urban seats of Casey, Deakin and Flinders foiling Labor hopes of strong gains in Victoria. Posters in Warringah on election day. Credit:AAP Inner-Brisbane also saw swings to Labor but, again, the Coalition was dominant in the outer suburbs and picked up seat of Longman on the city’s northern fringe. The Coalition also performed especially well in the “mining seats” on Queensland’s north coast where there is widespread concern about jobs security.

Analysis of two-party preferred swings across all 151 electorates by associate professor Ben Phillips, director of the Australian National University’s Centre for Economic Policy Research, revealed a strong correlation between blue-collar workers and a swing to the Coalition, particularly in Queensland. Loading Overall, voters in areas with lower incomes and lower levels of education were most likely to shift to the Coalition, even though they stood to benefit from many of the redistribution polices put forward by Labor, including increased spending on health, education and childcare. However, in areas with a high proportion of voters earning more than $100,000 a year and among those holding a bachelor’s degree, the swing went against the Coalition. “We found the higher educated and higher income groups did shift to Labor, as was expected prior to the election, but the working class didn’t seem to follow them,” says Phillips.

He also found a strong correlation between regions with a high proportion of Christians and a swing to the Coalition. Regional economist Terry Rawnsley says perceptions about economic security were crucial to the election result. In places where economic performance has been strongest over the past five years, voters were more likely to opt for the changes offered by Labor, he says. Where growth has been weaker, voters tended to choose the political status quo. Voters in Bondi. Credit:Janie Barrett “If you are economically secure you can start to think about doing something about climate change or inequality,” says Rawnsley, who is an economist with the consultancy SGS Economics and Planning. “But if you are worried about the economic outlook then financial matters come first in your considerations.” Rawnsley’s research shows economic growth in regional Australia has been much slower in the decade since the 2008 global financial crisis than during the decade before it. Growth in Australia’s regions has also lagged Australia’s big cities, especially Sydney and Melbourne. Many big, globally integrated cities across the world are becoming less connected to their hinterlands.

The election results suggest the economic and political interests of inner-urban Australia are diverging from other parts of the country. And Rawnsley believes these two Australias often struggle to understand each other. Loading “Inner cities don’t understand the role and importance of mining, the struggles the agricultural sector faces in managing the land in a changing climate and lack of opportunities,” he says. “The economy of the inner city isn’t understood by the rest of the country. Producing bespoke knowledge services, and the value they produce for the economy, result in intangible outcomes which can’t easily be explained.” The 2019 election can’t be labelled Australia’s Trump or Brexit moment. But there were some parallels, especially to the Brexit vote in the UK, where metropolitan London voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union while in most English regions a majority voted to leave.

Bowe says many regional voters are hostile towards political concerns expressed by those in the “globally connected knowledge economies” of the big cities. Loading “That is the story of the US presidential election and it’s the story of Brexit,” he says. “This is cutting across the traditional cleavages of class-based party voting.” A major cause of division is climate policy. Social researcher Rebecca Huntley says those living in inner-urban electorates were more comfortable with Labor’s more ambitious climate policies because they feel economically secure. “They know the economy is in transition to something but they can clearly see a place for themselves and their children in that economy,” she says.

But many outside the major cities, especially communities dependent on mining, can’t see themselves in that economy. Rawnsley’s analysis shows Australia’s regions have become much more dependent on mining in the decade since the global financial crisis. Mining’s share of economic output in regional Australia has grown from around 9 per cent in 2008 to almost 21 per cent in 2018. That structural change shift could make the politics of climate change even more difficult to manage in years to come. Climate policy has now played a crucial role in the past five elections and has caused havoc for both major parties. And it is certain to dominate several more. Huntley says the election also highlighted generational divisions, especially the debate over Labor’s policy to scrap some benefits that flow to self-funded retirees.