Developing new coalmines in the Galilee Basin would cost 12,500 jobs in existing coalmining regions and replace only two in three workers, modelling by the Australia Institute shows.

Job creation has long been an aggressive rallying call for supporters of Adani’s Carmichael megamine and other proposals in the untapped Galilee Basin, which combined would produce 150m tonnes of thermal coal each year.

But the Australia Institute report concludes that even if Australia’s thermal coal exports increase, and the world does not act on climate change, highly automated new mines in the Galilee would on balance cost the industry jobs.

The modelling is based on 2017 analysis by consultants Wood Mackenzie, who work closely with the mining industry. Wood Mackenzie said huge volumes of coal mined in the Galilee would curtail established operations in the Hunter Valley, Bowen Basin and Surat Basin regions.



If the Galilee was to produce 150m tonnes of coal a year, then existing regions would likely curtail production by 115m tonnes a year.

The Australia Institute has now modelled the likely job gains and losses from the development of the Galilee. The institute’s director of research, Roderick Campbell, said the level of mechanisation likely at new mine developments meant there would be an overall negative impact on coalmining jobs, even if export volumes increased.

Campbell said the best way to protect coal jobs was to stop the development of the Galilee. It’s understood that view is shared by many in the resources sector, where some existing miners believe their interests are best served by restricting supply and maintaining near-record export prices.

“Put simply, new mines, in new coal basins, destroy jobs in existing coal regions,” Campbell said.



“Existing coal regions like the Hunter Valley and Bowen Basin can continue to employ significant numbers of coalminers for some years, even as the world moves away from coal. But if governments are determined to subsidise automated new mines into new coal regions they will hasten the demise of existing coal jobs.”

The Australia Institute based its conclusions on the Queensland government’s jobs numbers for the Adani Carmichael mine, which would make it the second most efficient coalmine per tonne in Australia. It was assumed other new mines in the Galilee Basin used similar levels of automation and new technology.

“Due to automation and remote control, many of the jobs created in the development of mining in the Galilee Basin are likely to be in major cities, rather than near to the mines themselves,” the report said.

The Australia Institute discussion paper said the Hunter Valley in NSW would lose 9,000 jobs if the Galilee was developed, based on its modelling of the Wood Mackenzie analysis.

In Queensland the Bowen Basin, which is partly insulated from an increase in the supply of thermal coal because it produces a large amount of the world’s coking coal, would lose 2,000 jobs, and the Surat Basin would shed 1,400 workers. The predicted job losses were compared to a scenario where the Galilee Basin was not developed by 2035.

“Building new coalmines in the Galilee Basin would reduce the overall coal workforce by between 2,680 and 5,800 mine workers in the coming decades,” Campbell said.

It’s in Queensland’s interest not to flood the [coal] market ... because the only result is it will drive down prices Analyst Tim Buckley

Mining and gas companies have recently launched a missive against the “tofu tyrants” they say are costing Queensland jobs by opposing new resources developments.

Campbell said a “just transition” for coal workers could be best achieved by restricting the development of new highly automated mines.

The impact of those mines on the existing industry would be more severe if the world acts to curb the use of fossil fuels, as envisaged by the Paris agreement.

The International Energy Agency has predicted “the end of the boom years for coal” and a halving of global demand by 2040 under a scenario that assumed a Paris agreement baseline.



Tim Buckley, an energy market analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, told Guardian Australia last month that in light of the IEA’s prediction that coal demand would halve, any moves to develop new coal resources would hurt existing miners.

“If we myopically expand new capacity, that will only inevitably mark the end of high prices,” he said.

“It’s in our national interest to have an orderly retreat from coal. Ironically, it’s in the interest of the incumbent industry too. It’s in Queensland’s interest not to flood the market ... because the only result is it will drive down prices.



“That maximises the royalties to the Queensland government. It maximises the profits to coal companies. It also allows decent wages to the workers.”