Except maybe not. At that point, Republicans, far from accepting defeat, will surely start aiming fire at the three Democrats. Their opponents will taunt them about Judge Kavanaugh on the campaign trail. Right-wing money will pour in to their states for pro-Kavanaugh (and pro-Trump) TV ads. Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, will let this play out and may schedule the vote for as late as he can — mid-October, even late October — to make the Democrats sweat.

That will constitute enormous pressure on the red-state Democrats. If they sense their opponents are gaining steam, they may well think: Why should I cast a vote that’s going to cost me my seat? Especially when even if we defeat Judge Kavanaugh, we’re just going to get someone else who’s every bit as conservative?

If one of them moves to a pro-Kavanaugh position, it’s likely that all three will move. Here’s why. There is a standing agreement among minority parties in the Senate that in such situations, no one wants to be the 50th vote. The lone senator who provides the 50th vote can be blamed and reviled. But if all three move together, then one of them can’t be singled out as having cast the dreaded 50th vote. This is one big reason there are so few 50-to-50 votes in the Senate. In fact, when one side sees it has lost, a couple other senators who can afford to cast the vote will often join in to give their colleagues cover.

Beginning to see how this works?

Now imagine a second scenario. Imagine that Ms. Collins and Ms. Murkowski vote no, but this time they are joined by two other Republicans, Jeff Flake of Arizona and Bob Corker of Tennessee. Now, Judge Kavanaugh is down to 47 votes. And more important, the air will be out of his balloon, emotionally. At that point, I think the three Democrats will be fully off the hook.

And, of course, there’s a third scenario (at least!), which I discussed here earlier, and it’s probably still the most likely one. All 51 Republicans stand pat, in which case some Democrats will go ahead and confirm Judge Kavanaugh. But their votes won’t matter. Whether you got 51 votes or 55 or 100, they still call you Mr. Associate Justice.