A: There's still too many variables in play, especially this season, and here's why: It could come down to whether the NBA, before this season, adjusts the way the lottery works. In other words, if the lottery system changes and makes it less profitable to tank, it might not be as easy to predict four wins apiece against the 76ers and Magic, and maybe even against Bucks. Suddenly, those teams might actually try to win a game or two. I think this Heat team, with its questions and center and with its limited depth, looks somewhere between 43 and 45 wins. Any higher number will not come down to Spoelstra as much as it would to Dwyane Wade and his availability. The Heat can only push for wins as hard as Wade is able/willing to push.