Iraq needs a savior. Despite surplus ground-attack aircraft from Russia and Belarus, Revolutionary Guard soldiers from Iran, and a flood of volunteers from Iraq’s Shi’a population heeding the call of the likes of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani to join the fight against The Islamic State (ISIS), Iraq is still standing by a precipice. Despite claims in the past weeks that they had retaken Tikrit, forces loyal to the Iraqi government have failed repeatedly to make progress. Indeed, the ad hoc nature of the forces being sent into battle, ranging from elite Army Commando and SWAT units to hastily organized militia companies, and the inept leadership sending them to fight have served to embarrass the government and embolden the forces of the Islamic State.

In the political arena, Iraq remains in a dangerous gridlock. Nouri Al-Maliki has still not been convinced to abandon his hopes for a third term as Prime Minister, but the major blocs of the parliament have still not come together to either keep him in power or find a replacement. Far from trying to be the steady hand steering the ship of state, Maliki has consistently forsaken compromises that could bring unity to the country and bolster the resistance to the Islamic State’s advances.

Just when it would seem prudent to work with the Kurds so they could be convinced to bring their military might to bear, Maliki has instead turned to increasingly angry rhetoric that has only served to alienate Iraq’s Kurdish population. It should be no surprise, then, that the Kurdish regions President, Massoud Barzani, would announce the local government’s intentions of holding a referendum to decide whether or not to declare independence.

On the other side of the battle lines, The Islamic State looks as potent as ever. It is yet to face a counter-attack in Iraq worth worrying about. The Kurds are staying right where they have been for weeks. The leader of the young Caliphate, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, holds sway over a territory reaching from the Tikrit area to northwestern Syria, and has even ordered operations launched in fragile Lebanon. Is Baghdad still on the verge of falling? No, but that’s about the only good news to come out of Iraq in the last month.

Until this week. One person has been missing from Iraq’s stage through this whole crisis, someone very important. Iraq has been without its President for a year and half ever since he was sidelined with a devastating stroke, forcing him to seek extended treatment in Germany. The news has come, though; it is confirmed. President Jalal Talabani is coming home.

The announcement by his son Qubud, who also happens to be the Deputy Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, that the President would arrive home on Saturday, July 19th has brought a potential game changing dynamic to Iraq. Jalal Talabani just might be the key to saving Iraq as a unified state.

“A Smile As Broad as the Euphrates”

A large, excitable man, Talabani is “not only genial and urbane,” as former CIA officer Robert Baer, who knew the Kurdish President personally, said in his memoir See No Evil, “he was also a first-rate actor and a world-class politician.” A Kurdish patriot and Iraqi nationalist at the same time, Talabani has long been opposed to dividing Iraq along ethnic or religious lines, as Baer notes.

The founder and Secretary General of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, one of the two major Kurdish political groups in the last few decades, he is the scion of one of the great Kurdish families, just like his rival, Barzani. Strangely enough for a man who spent as much time fighting other Kurdish groups (like Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party) as he did Saddam, Talabani was able to become something of a unifying force in Iraqi politics after the American-led invasion in 2003.

Left to Right: Barzani, Talabani, and Maliki. (Kurd Press)

Like many parliamentary democracies, the post of President is largely ceremonial, but Talabani was able to use it to become the chief mediator in Iraq’s nascent political system. He was a calming force on Maliki, while also being able to be the middle man between the constantly feuding Sunni and Shi’a political factions.

“Talabani’s return at this critical stage in the history of Iraq carries several symbolic implications,” said Abdulaziz Hussein, a member of parliament from the President’s party, to Asharq Al-Awsat. “Talabani has been the security valve of the political process over the last period and his absence has left a very clear impact on it, whether on the level of the relationship between the center [Baghdad] and the [Kurdistan] region, or in terms of the disputes and conflicts between the political blocs.”

If there was ever a need for Talabani’s friendly demeanor and negotiating skills, it is now. The vacuum left by his absence has been filled by anger and mistrust between Maliki and the political opposition. Ailing and fragile, Talabani may have to use what energy he has left to become the savior of a unified Iraq, to help forge a new government while also keeping the Kurdish people from declaring independence.

Hang Together, or Hang Separately

It might be too much to ask of an old man coming off a long and arduous recovery; how realistic is it to expect him to just jump into the fire straight off the plane from Germany?

Expectations are certainly being set low. Some Iraqi political insiders are already casting him off as a spent force who should have just stayed in Germany. Even in his own party, they aren’t as much looking for him to take the wheel again as much as they are looking for his replacement as leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Senior members of the PUK are due to meet soon after Talabani’s return to discuss just what sort of role he should play. They’re not about to set him aside without having a look at him.

Even if his party does stand behind him, there’s no guarantee that he will be just let back into the snake pit that is Baghdad politics. Talabani has been gone for a long time, and it is doubtful that he was ever really kept in the loop, his health being in jeopardy until fairly recently. There is no guarantee that Maliki will accept Talabani taking up his old role as mediator-in-chief, and the old President might find himself being sent packing back to Erbil with warm wishes and a cold shoulder from the Prime Minister.

Talabani also will have to face off against his old rival, Barzani. The two fought a bloody civil war in the mid-90s, and the feud has never really ended, even though both found themselves finally in positions of national importance. Barzani is leading the charge for Kurdish independence, attempting to pave a road towards a state for the Kurds (that he would lead, naturally). Talabani is physically weak, while Barzani is as vigorous and spry as ever, and that alone might finally give the KDP leader the upper hand in Kurdish politics.

The campaign that the returning President would have to wage would be two-pronged. On one front, he would have to square off yet again against Barzani in an attempt to keep the Kurds attached to Iraq. The other front would be in Baghdad, to try to either get Maliki to step down, or form some sort of extraordinary government of national unity that would somehow satisfy all the stakeholders while also keeping the Prime Minister in power.

There are no guarantees. Talabani could just as easily step off the plane and straight into retirement as try to bear the burden of keeping Iraq together. The world might be asking too much of the old man but, then again, these are the sort of times where much is asked. How much does Talabani have left to give? The answer might mean the survival of a unified Iraq.

Garrett Khoury, a graduate of the George Washington University’s Elliot School of International Affairs and an MA Candidate at Tel Aviv University, is the Director of Research and Content for The Eastern Project. Garrett has previously worked with The Israel Project in Jerusalem and The American Task Force on the Western Sahara in Washington, DC.