Metrolinx is pushing ahead with plans to include two controversial GO Transit stations in a major expansion of the regional rail network, despite revelations that the former transportation minister interfered to win their initial approval.

In a speech at the Toronto Region Board of Trade Monday, Phil Verster, the chief executive officer of Metrolinx, announced that after a second round of study the agency will recommend all 12 stations its board endorsed in 2016 should advance to the final planning stages of GO’s regional express rail program.

The list includes Kirby and Lawrence East stations. As the Star has previously reported, in 2016 former transportation minister Steven Del Duca pressured Metrolinx, an arms-length agency of the provincial government, to change planning reports to recommend the two stops, despite them not being supported by initial studies.

Kirby is in the Vaughan riding represented by Del Duca, a Liberal MPP. Lawrence East in Scarborough is a key component of Mayor John Tory’s SmartTrack plan.

Speaking to reporters after his speech, Verster declined to weigh in on the political interference that affected the first round of approvals, saying he was focused on “where we need to go in the future.”

The CEO, who joined the agency in October, said the updated station analyses are impartial and speak for themselves.

“Therefore I’m not looking to the past at all, I’m looking to the future in terms of how we do things, and it’s an exciting time for us to be in a place where the data is very clear, and the processes are very clear,” he said.

Initial business cases for Kirby and Lawrence East determined the stations would lead to a net loss of ridership on the GO network, and a report Metrolinx commissioned recommended neither be considered for at least another 10 years.

But Metrolinx’s new analysis of 19 potential new GO stations employed assumptions the earlier reports did not.

Most importantly, the initial analysis assumed trains would stop at each station on a line. That risks driving away “upstream” riders who board at the start of the trip, because stopping at the new station would add travel time and make the service less attractive.

By contrast, the new analysis considered express service at some stations, meaning some trains would bypass some stops to avoid inconveniencing upstream riders.

The new criteria resulted in better outcomes for several stations. Metrolinx concluded the 12 new stops would cost a total of $2.1 billion, but deliver benefits of $6.7 billion over a 60-year period.

Six of the stations Metrolinx is recommending are part of Tory’s SmartTrack scheme, and in an emailed statement the mayor said the agency’s new analysis “makes it clear the case for SmartTrack is getting stronger.”

“We are getting on with building SmartTrack because it can be done quickly, and will provide relief faster for TTC riders on the Yonge-University-Spadina line,” he said.

But while the mayor’s office proclaimed the Metrolinx study “confirms SmartTrack benefits will substantially outpace costs,” that is only true when the stations are considered as a group.

Individually, only two of the SmartTrack stations, Liberty Village and East Harbour, have benefits that outweigh their costs. The remaining four SmartTrack stops — Finch, Gerrard-Carlaw, Lawrence East, St. Clair-Old Weston — fall short of breaking even.

The Star's Ben Spurr takes a look at the proposed $100-million Kirby Go Station in the riding of Ontario Transportation Minister Steven Del Duca.

The other stations being recommended to advance are Bloor-Lansdowne, Spadina-Front, Breslau, Innisfil and Mulock.

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The costs of all but two of the 12 stops have risen as Metrolinx has refined its designs.

The agency wouldn’t release the price tag for individual stations, but according to a source with knowledge of the analysis, the capital costs for Kirby have increased from the initial estimate of about $100 million, and are now estimated at $237 million. The cost of Lawrence East has risen from about $26 million to $155 million.

In addition to the 12 already approved stops, Metrolinx is also recommending a 13th station, Park Lawn in south Etobicoke, be considered for the expansion.

An initial analysis determined the stop would be too close to the existing GO station at Mimico, and recommended it not be built.

But Metrolinx has determined the business case could be significantly improved by instituting “split service” that would see trains alternate between stopping at Mimico and Park Lawn.

Metrolinx is recommending the agency do further analysis of the station before advancing it to the final planning stage.

The news was welcomed by local Etobicoke politicians who have been pushing for Park Lawn to bring transit relief to the congested Humber Shores neighbourhood.

“There is a strong business case for it given that the area is one of the fastest growing communities in the city,” said Peter Milczyn, Liberal MPP for Etobicoke-Lakeshore.

“I am pleased we are making progress toward building this new transit hub.”

The Star reported Sunday that in addition to Kirby and Lawrence East, Del Duca also pressured Metrolinx to approve Park Lawn and a station at Highway 7-Concord in Vaughan in 2016, but the agency didn’t endorse them tat the time.

In January, Del Duca was reappointed to the ministry of economic development as part of a Liberal cabinet shuffle.

Metrolinx will present its recommendations to the agency’s board on March 8. It expects to arrive at a final list of stations for the $13.5-billion regional express rail program by the end of the year.

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