Photos of various parts of New York City underwater due to Hurricane Sandy have abounded over the last 24 hours: subway stations submerged, water pouring into Ground Zero, and the FDR Drive merged with the nearby river. But these events might not be an aberration in the future. According to various climate change models, the ocean will rise to the highest levels brought on by Hurricane Sandy within the next couple hundred years. We could be looking at a preview of the New York City of 2200.

Granted, predictions of the sea level beyond the year 2100 have wide confidence intervals, and depend greatly on variables like greenhouse gas emissions and how quickly some of the larger ice sheets in Greenland and the Antarctic melt. But even allowing for the world to get its emissions under control within a reasonable time frame, New York will still see the water level rise by several feet, as it did during the hurricane, within the next century or two.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's water level sensor at The Battery in Lower Manhattan, water levels were 9.23 feet above normal at their highest point, which happened at about 9:24pm last night. The water level rise was sustained above five feet for about ten and a half hours, from 2:24pm on October 29 until 1:18am on October 30.

A report published in Nature Climate Change in June projects that on our current emissions path, the sea level will rise 40 inches by 2100 and 7 inches per decade thereafter. At that rate, the sea level would hit the Hurricane Sandy proportions of 9 feet around the year 2200; the five foot rise will occur in just over a century. The same paper notes that even if global warming is held to 2 degrees Celsius, there's a 50 percent probability that the sea level will reach 9 feet by the year 2300—much further out in time.

Another paper published in September 2011 that examines the potential sea level rise to the year 2500 also shows that right around the turn of the 23rd century, the sea level will be up about 9 feet. (There will necessarily be some differences between the global sea level and the one local to New York, but most estimates show the effect in New York to be on par with or greater than the global one). The sea level would rise that high in this projection if greenhouse gas concentrations remained on the high side and these emissions were not stabilized until after 2100.

These projections depend on a number of factors, including the melting of ice sheets. Scientists expect the effects of the melting of ice masses like Greenland and Antarctica to take place over the next few centuries to millenia but cannot pinpoint the pace. It's highly unlikely any of the ice sheets will melt completely before the next few centuries are through. But if even 40 percent of Greenland's ice mass melted, that alone would raise the sea level by a maximum of 9 feet.

The eventual sea level rise won't be accompanied by Frankenstorm-level disaster scenarios, like water pouring in through an elevator shaft. And New York's system for pumping water out of the way of its infrastructure is not to be discounted; already, the subways only function by the grace of a powerful and elaborate water displacement outfit. Still, the hurricane provides a visual reminder of how susceptible coastal cities will be to getting enveloped by a rising ocean.