The polling reveals the Liberal Party was so worried it also sought to enlist the support of sympathetic 2GB "media jocks" Alan Jones and Ray Hadley to "do a job" on high-profile independent candidate James Mathison, who was attracting a significant primary vote away from Mr Abbott, as well as the Nick Xenophon Team candidate Marie Rowland.

"It would be good if Ray Hadley and Alan Jones could deliver a strong message about Warringah being under threat and perhaps do a job on Xenophon and Mathison. Mathison's tweets and blogs will include some material that might concern voters about him," the research says.

The polling found that 44 per cent of voters said they would vote Liberal. This is known as an unaided vote because the question does not name the candidate, just the party.

But when the same voters in Warringah were asked whether they would vote for Mr Abbott, that primary vote fell 10 percentage points to 34 per cent. This is known as an aided vote and is a truer reflection of how people will vote.

This was almost half the 61 per cent primary vote Mr Abbott received at the previous 2013 election.

The poll found the Labor candidate was on 19 per cent, the Greens on 15 per cent, Mr Mathison on 15 per cent and Ms Rowland on 9 per cent. The fear was that Mr Abbott would lose to an independent or Labor once preferences were distributed.

On a two-party preferred basis, based on the way preferences flowed, Mr Abbott, on an unaided basis, would have narrowly held the seat over Labor by 51 per cent to 49 per cent, the research said.

But on the more accurate aided vote, he would have lost by 57 per cent to 43 per cent.


Resources allocated

The research concluded "it goes without saying that the seat needs some resourcing in the final week", including an intervention by Mr Turnbull and Mr Howard.

Given Mr Abbott's drop in the primary vote went largely to Mr Mathison, he and the demographics which most supported him became the prime target for the final week of the campaign.

These were males and females aged between 35 and 49, especially the men, and women aged between 50 and 64

Mr Turnbull was enlisted because he was vastly more popular in Warringah than Mr Abbott.

The polling found both men had 100 per cent name recognition among voters but Mr Abbott's net favourability, which is his positive ratings minus his negative ratings, was minus 40 per cent while while the federal Liberal Party had a net positive of 17 per cent.

Only 31 per cent believed Mr Abbott deserved to be re-elected.

Mr Turnbull had a net positive 21 per cent Mr Howard a net positive of 26 per cent and Labor leader Bill Shorten had a net minus 33 percent.


In robocalls to target voters during the final week, Mr Turnbull said: "Hello, I'm Malcolm Turnbull. I'm ringing to let you know that your electorate is one of just 15 that is crucial to forming a stable government and preventing the chaos of a hung Parliament in uncertain times.

"This Saturday, every single vote will count, I need you to vote for Tony Abbott so together we see things through, for jobs our economy and our country. Thank you for your time."

On election day, Mr Abbott suffered a nine-point primary swing but still won comfortably with a primary vote of 51 per cent.

On a two-party basis, after preferences were distributed, he defeated Greens candidate Clara Williams-Roldan by 62 per cent to 38 per cent. Mr Mathison won 11 per cent of the primary vote.

One senior Liberal recalled there was some scepticism at the time about the accuracy of the polling but given the frantic final days of the campaign, and the realisation the government could lose, nothing was left to chance, especially given the changing demographics in Warringah.

The polling found that those attracted to Mr Mathison were "economic conservatives but social trendies", who were protesting over gay marriage, climate change and offshore processing. They also liked Mr Turnbull and wanted a strong economy and jobs "to support their inner urban lifestyles".

The existence of the polling and Mr Abbott's precarious pre-election position was hushed up during the campaign and has not been known publicly until now.

Relations between Mr Turnbull and Mr Abbott remain at rock bottom with Mr Abbott now frequently speaking out against government policy and warning than unless his proposals are adopted, Labor will win the next election.

NSW powerbrokers on both sides of the factional fence believe there could be a preselection challenge against Mr Abbott but hardheads warn against it, saying it would make him a martyr and put pressure on Mr Turnbull to save him, all creating an enormous distraction.