Javier Baez has been getting quite a bit of acclaim since returning to the Cubs with his reduced strikeout rate. In 2014, Baez had a 42% strikeout rate (K%) in the majors and 2015 value of 22% K% looks to be a huge improvement. Don’t get too excited about this small sample of data as his swing strike rate (SwStr%) points to a strikeout rate which will likely increase quickly.

Historically, a hitter’s strikeout rate correlates almost identically to their swinging strike rate. The reason to use SwStr% instead of K% is because it stabilizes a bit faster. I took all hitters since 2002 who had at least 200 plate appearances in a season and found the linear correlation between their strikeout rate and swinging strike rate. The R-squared between the two values was .947 with the equation working out to:

K% = 2.25 * SwStr%

With this little bit of information, here is a look at Baez’s stats in the majors the past two seasons.

Season: SwStr%, Predicted K%, Actual K%

2014: 19.2%, 43.2%, 41.5%

2015: 18.5%, 41.6%, 22.2%

Baez’s crazy high 2014 strikeout rate is almost exactly in line with the strikeout rate projected using his swing strike rate. His 2015 strikeout rate is almost equal to his SwStr%.

Besides just looking at the predictive nature of SwStr% and K%, how have hitters with near 20% SwStr% done? Since 2002, only 19 hitters have reached the 100 PA plateau with a SwStr% between 18% and 18% which shows how little patience teams have with extreme strikeout hitters.

The list of hitters basically contains catchers or hitters who struggled to stay in the league. Their average K% was 32% and the median value was 31%. Truthfully, I think a K% around 30% would be great for Baez, but if it creeps up into the 35% range, he will likely be less of a fantasy option.

Another rookie with similar contact issues is Joey Gallo. His SwStr% is currently at 22.3% which would project to a 50.1% K%. This season he has 46% K% so far, so his high K% seems legit. Both Gallo and Baez could provide a fantasy team with some good home run numbers, but they will be a huge drain on their team’s batting average.

Don’t buy any of the hype that Baez has turned a corner and is no longer striking out as much. He is missing pitches nearly as much as he did last season and I fully expect his K% to quickly get above 30%. Baez’s owners should look to sell while his value is higher to some other owner who believes in his lower strikeout rate.