The referendum campaign has been deluged by polls and research from all corners, but Lord Hayward's analysis deserves to be taken seriously by both sides. He is the man who identified the "shy Tory" phenomenon that propelled John Major to victory in 1992, and was proved right again last year when he suggested the Conservatives would do much better than the polls suggested.

So how has the Tory peer decided that Brexiteers are on track for victory? He has spent months talking to people, and found that the voters who should be backing Remain according to the polls "overwhelmingly deviate towards the Leave side". They diverge from what the polls suggest to such an extent that Lord Hayward has now concluded that they are "probably over-emphasising the Remain vote".