The CBA was ratified by the NFL players. So it seems like a good time to take a look at the 2020 roster and cap space situation.

The Chargers currently have 48 players under contract for 2020. Here are 47 of them, along with their 2020 cap numbers, per Over the Cap:

Edge Melvin Ingram $16,625,000 Edge Joey Bosa $14,360,000 WR Keenan Allen $12,650,000 TE Hunter Henry $11,076,000 CB Casey Hayward $10,750,000 G Trai Turner $9,000,000 LB Denzel Perryman $8,512,500 QB Tyrod Taylor $7,500,000 C Mike Pouncey $7,250,000 WR Mike Williams $6,374,109 TE Virgil Green $3,500,000 S Derwin James $3,378,805 DT Jerry Tillery $2,595,945 G Dan Feeney $2,375,158 S Rayshawn Jenkins $2,309,553 CB Desmond King $2,214,000 T Sam Tevi $2,184,451 G Forrest Lamp $2,141,288 Edge Uchenna Nwosu $1,570,794 S Nasir Adderley $1,075,480 DT Justin Jones $963,535 LB Kyzir White $913,610 T Trey Pipkins $894,269 LB Drue Tranquill $839,702 C Scott Quessenberry $821,063 CB Brandon Facyson $753,334 TE Stephen Anderson $750,000 RB Justin Jackson $750,000 K Michael Badgley $750,000 T Cole Toner $750,000 OLB Malik Jefferson $750,000 QB Easton Stick $744,655 OLB Emeke Egbule $714,239 P Ty Long $695,000 DT Cortez Broughton $694,580 S Roderic Teamer $675,666 WR Jason Moore $675,000 WR Andre Patton $675,000 LS Cole Mazza $675,000 CB Quenton Meeks $675,000 WR Jalen Guyton $675,000 G Koda Martin $613,000 NT P.J. Johnson $610,000 CB Tevaughn Campbell $610,000 T Tyree St. Louis $610,000 WR Tyron Johnson $610,000 TE Andrew Vollert $610,000

Some notes and assumptions about this list:

Ekeler is not in the list, because he had been a restricted free agent, and the details of his new contract have not yet been released, other than that it is 4 years, $24.5M. I will speculate that it is structured something like this: $6M signing bonus, base salaries of $3M, $4M, $5M, $6.5M. If so, his 2020 cap hit would be $4.5M. So I will count him at $4.5M for purposes of this post.

Perryman's contract has been restructured and extended, and those details also have not been released, so his cap number in the list above is outdated. I'm going to speculate that his 2020 cap number will be $5M for purposes of this post.

Henry's cap hit above is the franchise tag value. I assume the Chargers will sign him to a market value contract soon, which Spotrac estimates at 4 years, $35.5M. I don't have any better information than that, so I will assume that is the contract he signs. I will assume that results in a $6M cap hit in 2020.

In my first offseason post, I noted that Feeney, Jenkins, King, and Tevi all earned salary increases due to the Proven Performance Escalator. Their cap hits shown above reflect those raises.

The new CBA increased all minimum salaries effective immediately. Those increases are reflected in the cap hits shown above.

I assume the team will extend Bosa's contract this season, but I assume his 2020 cap hit will not change.

I have seen speculation on this site that Ingram may be traded and that Green may be released as a cap casualty. I don't think either one of those moves should or will happen.

I assume Pouncey will return healthy enough to be expected to start and play the entire season in 2020. So I will not consider him as a possible cap casualty. I also will not consider him as a candidate for contract extension, since I think he needs to prove he can stay healthy before another contract extension.

I am going to assume these players do not make the final roster: TE Anderson, T Toner, OLB Jefferson, CB Meeks, WR Guyton, G Martin, NT Johnson, CB Campbell, T St. Louis, WR Johnson, TE Vollert.

That leaves this group of 37 players I expect to make the final roster:

Edge Melvin Ingram $16,625,000 Edge Joey Bosa $14,360,000 WR Keenan Allen $12,650,000 CB Casey Hayward $10,750,000 G Trai Turner $9,000,000 QB Tyrod Taylor $7,500,000 C Mike Pouncey $7,250,000 WR Mike Williams $6,374,109 TE Hunter Henry $6,000,000 - assumed LB Denzel Perryman $5,000,000 - assumed RB Austin Ekeler $4,500,000 - assumed TE Virgil Green $3,500,000 S Derwin James $3,378,805 DT Jerry Tillery $2,595,945 G Dan Feeney $2,375,158 S Rayshawn Jenkins $2,309,553 CB Desmond King $2,214,000 T Sam Tevi $2,184,451 G Forrest Lamp $2,141,288 Edge Uchenna Nwosu $1,570,794 S Nasir Adderley $1,075,480 DT Justin Jones $963,535 LB Kyzir White $913,610 T Trey Pipkins $894,269 LB Drue Tranquill $839,702 C Scott Quessenberry $821,063 CB Brandon Facyson $753,334 RB Justin Jackson $750,000 K Michael Badgley $750,000 QB Easton Stick $744,655 OLB Emeke Egbule $714,239 P Ty Long $695,000 DT Cortez Broughton $694,580 S Roderic Teamer $675,666 WR Jason Moore $675,000 WR Andre Patton $675,000 LS Cole Mazza $675,000

Now let's check the cap situation.









The cap hits for the 37 players above total to $135,589,236. Per Spotrac, the Chargers currently have $8,155,000 in dead cap space in 2020. So accounting for the 37 players above and the dead cap space, the team has $57,396,746 in remaining cap space.





I am going to assume for purposes of this post that Telesco does not make any trades to alter the Chargers' current 2020 draft picks. I further assume all of those draft picks will make the final roster. Spotrac projects those picks to have a collective cap hit of $9,493,852. Deducting that leaves $47,902,894.





This Field Gulls article nicely lays out the cost of the practice squad: For the upcoming season, there will be 12 practice squad spots, with each spot commanding a $10,500 salary per week. Therefore, the full practice squad of 12 players at the new salary of $10,500 each for each of 17 weeks will take up $2.142M in cap space. Deducting that leaves $45,760,894 in remaining cap space.





The team also needs to reserve cap space for IR replacements during the season. I would normally expect $3M to $4M for this. I will be conservative and assume $4M. Deducting this leaves $41,760,894 in remaining cap space.





This is not as much as the numbers that tend to get thrown around, since media reporting typically ignores some of the factors described above.





Now let's move on to talking about completing the roster. I named 37 players above and also assumed all 7 Chargers draft picks will make the final roster. So that is 44 roster spots filled. The new CBA will expand the rosters from 53 to 55 . So there are 11 roster spots left to be filled.





First, let's take a look at the team's free agents . I will start with the Restricted Free Agents (RFA) and Exclusive Rights Free Agents (ERFAs) and make some assumptions:

I assume the Chargers will tender RFAs Rochell and Michael Davis with original round tenders, projected to be $2.127M. I don't expect any other team to compete for their services, so both should make the final roster. I assume the Chargers will not tender RFAs Drango, Culkin, or DeBoer. They could still re-sign any/all of them as camp bodies, but I don't expect any of them to make the final roster. So I'm going to ignore them. I assume the Chargers will not tender Pope, but may sign him to a 1 year, minimum salary deal. More on this later. Trent Scott and Cantrell are ERFAs. I assume the Chargers will sign both of them to one year deals at minimum salaries, but I am going to assume neither makes the final roster, so I'm going to ignore them.



So I have accounted for 46 roster spots, and remaining cap space is $37,506,894. On to Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs):

To start off, we can eliminate some players. I assume the Chargers will not attempt to re-sign WR Benjamin, LB Dzubnar, WR Davis, G Groy, DT Sylvester Williams, or LB Brown. I am less certain about TE Kendricks. More on him later. As we all know, Rivers is not returning. With the trade for Trai Turner, I assume the team will not re-sign Schofield, and will plan to make do in 2020 with Lamp or Feeney at the other guard spot. I assume the Chargers will let Gordon walk. It just does not make sense to commit the money he is looking for to any RB in the league today, much less to one who struggles to average 4 ypc and, more importantly, one who did great harm to the team with his 2019 holdout. Sayonara. Despite letting college teammate Gordon go, I assume the Chargers will re-sign Watt. Lynn seems like a coach who will always want a fullback on the roster, and Watt is great on special teams. I will assume a 3 year, $8M contract, where the 3rd year is structured as a possible out year for the team. I will assume he has a $1.5M cap hit in 2020. I think the team should re-sign S Phillips. Hopefully the fact that he missed most of the season will keep his price down a bit, because he played really well (second highest PFF grade on the defense, behind Bosa). I will assume a 3 year, $10M contract, where the 3rd year is structured as a possible out year for the team. I will assume he has a $2.5M cap hit in 2020. With James, Adderley, Jenkins, Phillips, and Teamer on the roster, I see no reason for the team to re-sign Watkins, and I assume they won't. With Tillery disappointing, Jones average to below average, Mebane gone, and my assumption that Sylvester Williams is gone, the team may feel compelled to re-sign Square. He was arguably the Chargers' best interior DL last season (Williams and Broughton each had slightly higher PFF grades, but they combined for 84 snaps, while Square played 402). Yet Square wasn't so good that he should be expensive. I will assume the team re-signs him to a 2 year, $7M contract, with a $2.5M 2020 cap hit.

So I am assuming that Watt, Phillips, and Square are re-signed, reducing remaining available salary cap space to roughly $31M. In total so far, I am accounting for 49 roster spots.





Here is what that group looks like positionally:





Offense (18):

QB (2) - Taylor, Stick

RB (2) - Ekeler, Jackson

FB (1) - Watt

WR (4) - Allen, Williams, Patton, Moore

TE (2) - Henry, Green

T (2) - Tevi, Pipkins

G (3) - Turner, Feeney, Lamp

C (2) - Pouncey, Quessenberry

Defense (21):

Edge (4) - Bosa, Ingram, Nwosu, Rochell

Interior DL (4) - Square, Tillery, Jones, Broughton

LB (4) - Perryman, Tranquill, White, Egbule

CB (4) - Hayward, King, Davis, Facyson

S (5) - James, Jenkins, Adderley, Phillips, Teamer

Special Teams (3):

K - Badgley

P - Long

LS - Mazza

Plus 7 rookies.





Before moving on, IMO these are the team needs in rough order of importance:

QBOTF LT Interior DL RT CB LB RB TE WR3 – less important with Rivers gone, since IMO pass attempts will be down and can go primarily to the top 4 targets (Allen, Henry, Ekeler, Williams)

That is a lot to address with 7 draft picks and $31M in cap space. I will make some assumptions about the draft picks:

I originally expected the team to use the #6 pick to draft their QB of the future. However, they have no left tackle after trading Okung away, and the free agency market for left tackles is weak. So I now expect the Chargers to draft their highest graded left tackle at #6. Given the weakness at OL, I think the team drafts a second OL player. I am going to assume the team signs a veteran to start at RT. Feeney and Lamp are both UFAs after the 2020 season, and, at this time, there is no reason for the Chargers to consider re-signing either of them. So I think the team will draft a G to groom for a year and hopefully step into the starting lineup not later than 2021. IMO this should be the 2nd or 3rd round pick. Similarly, the interior DL is also a weakness. I assume the team will draft one. IMO this should be the 2nd or 3rd pick. With only Ekeler and Jackson identified at RB, I have to assume the team drafts one. I'm thinking 5th or 6th round. WR depth is weak. I assume they will draft one. The team needs a 3rd TE, so I assume they will draft one... although this is not a strong draft for TEs. I think it is possible the team looks to re-sign Kendricks instead or in addition to drafting a rookie TE. Telesco loves to draft LBs, and with the departures of Brown and Davis, they will need to replace them. I assume they will draft one.

So I assumed above that the Chargers will wait on their QBOTF, meaning they will roll with Tyrod and Stick this season. I suppose they could sign a veteran on the cheap to compete, like Mariota, but I don't think they should. There is little reason to believe that Mariota would offer anything more than Tyrod offers. Lynn likes Tyrod, and the team brain trust obviously liked Stick enough to draft him and burn a roster spot on him as 3rd string QB all of last season. So I think they should go with the two of them and see if Lynn can make that work. I am very skeptical, but doing that allows them to strengthen the rest of the roster before finding their QBOTF next offseason.





Looking back at that needs list, I assumed all of them other than QBOTF, RT, and CB were addressed in the draft. I think the Chargers should address RT and CB with veteran external free agents. I also think that, even though I assumed they will draft an interior DL player, it would be good to also sign a high quality veteran. In fact, I think they should go after high quality, expensive players at each of those 3 positions. For example:

RT Bulaga - He is 30. Spotrac estimates his market value at 3 years for approximately $33M. I assume his first year cap hit might be $9M. IDL Linval Joseph - He is 31 and made $9.4M last season. I assume he would sign for 4 years, $45M, where the team would structure the 4th year as an easy out. I assume his first year cap hit might be $9M. CB Chris Harris - He is 30. Spotrac estimates his market value at 3 years for approximately $33M. I assume his first year cap hit might be $9M. Not only would it be great to sign a player of Harris's caliber, it would be extra special to sign him away from the Broncos.

I think the Chargers might have to pay more than market value to sign players like these guys, due to several factors (cost of living/taxes, no QBOTF, no culture/history of winning, coach could be on the hot seat, etc.). But I think they could overpay while holding these cap numbers.





Signing those 3 would mean I have allocated 52 of 55 roster spots. Assuming they each cost $9M on the 2020 cap means there is still about $4M left to spend on those 3 roster spots. Let's look at the positions again and fill in based on some of my assumptions:







Offense (24): QB (2) - Taylor, Stick

RB (3) - Ekeler, Jackson, rookie

FB (1) - Watt

WR (5) - Allen, Williams, Patton, Moore, rookie

TE (3) - Henry, Green, rookie

T (4) - rookie LT, Bulaga, Tevi, Pipkins

G (4) - Turner, Feeney, Lamp, rookie

C (2) - Pouncey, Quessenberry Defense (25): Edge (4) - Bosa, Ingram, Nwosu, Rochell

Interior DL (6) - Joseph, Square, Tillery, Jones, Broughton, rookie

LB (5) - Perryman, Tranquill, White, Egbule, rookie

CB (5) - Hayward, Harris, King, Davis, Facyson

S (5) - James, Jenkins, Adderley, Phillips, Teamer Special Teams (3): K - Badgley

P - Long

LS - Mazza Looking over this roster, first off, that is a killer defense. Adding Joseph and Harris would make this a top 3-5 defense in the NFL. And notice that this does not require using the #6 pick on a defensive player like Simmons to achieve that.

This approach could take 2 of the 3 primary weaknesses on the team -- OL and IDL -- and turn them into strengths. But it does that at the cost of ignoring the most important weakness -- QBOTF.





I think the remaining 3 roster spots should probably include another RB and TE. So I could see the team signing Pope and Kendricks to 1 year, minimum salary deals.





I suppose the last spot should probably be QB3, since Stick has zero experience and Tyrod is a bottom tier starter. The problem is, there is only around $2M to $3M left... so you are talking about guys like Case Keenum, Drew Stanton, etc. Would Lynn really want to add someone of that caliber? I mean, Keenum might beat Tyrod out. Anyway, I think QB3 is the last spot, regardless of who it is. If the team needs to clear some roster space to get whoever they would want, they can probably try extending Ingram or Allen, clearing cap space in the process.





OK, that's it for this round. Thoughts?