Maxime Bernier has taken a firm lead of the Conservative leadership field, now that Kevin O’Leary is out of the running.

According to the latest iPolitics CPC Leadership Tracker, powered by Mainstreet Research, Bernier is the first choice of 31.18 per cent Conservative party members.

Mainstreet reached 1,004 Conservative Party of Canada members from April 29 to 30 and found, with a margin of error of +/- 3.09 per cent, 19 times out of 20, that Bernier is members’ first choice, followed by Andrew Scheer at 22 per cent.

Erin O’Toole has 11.25 per cent followed by Kellie Leitch with 8.17 per cent and Lisa Raitt at 5.48 per cent.

Mainstreet Research President Quito Maggi said the race isn’t over, “but it’s almost over.”

Maggi said there would have to be a drastic change in the nature of the contest — an unexpected deal or a new coalition of candidates — for another candidate to pass Bernier now.

He said Bernier’s lead is widening and that trend will continue.

Mainstreet Research also found that, following O’Leary’s endorsement of Bernier, most of his supporters did flock to the Bernier camp. Almost 42 per cent of former O’Leary supporters have shifted their support to Bernier, while 18.48 per cent of former O’Leary supporters say they’ll support Scheer.

Before O’Leary endorsed Bernier, most of O’Leary’s second choice support was going to Kellie Leitch.

Maggi said Bernier’s current polling strength is evidence that O’Leary and Bernier succeeded in staging a smooth transition of O’Leary’s supporters.

The iPolitics CPC Leadership Tracker, powered by Mainstreet, will be tracking the Conservative leadership race until members pick the next leader on May 27. For additional information on methodology and to subscribe to in-depth updates, click here.