Agency becomes first major meteorological bureau to declare weather phenomenon which can bring severe droughts to south-east Asia and Australia

This article is more than 5 years old

This article is more than 5 years old

Japan’s weather bureau said on Wednesday that an El Niño weather pattern, which can trigger drought in some parts of the world while causing flooding in others, had emerged during the summer for the first time in five years and was likely to continue into winter.

That marks the first declaration by a major meteorological bureau of the much-feared El Niño phenomenon, which had been widely expected to emerge this year.

El Niño - a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific - can prompt drought in south-east Asia and Australia and heavy rains in South America, hitting production of food such as rice, wheat and sugar.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast last month that the possibility of an El Niño pattern forming this winter was higher than the 50% it had projected in its previous monthly prediction.

But on Wednesday it said that an El Niño had emerged between June and August, continuing into November.

“We can’t tell whether or not El Niño will continue until spring, but we can say that there is a higher chance of it continuing in the winter,” said Ikuo Yoshikawa, a JMA forecaster.

The Japanese weather bureau does not classify or predict the size of El Niño, he said.

Last week, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said that climate models suggest El Niño weather conditions would occur over the next three months, although related weather patterns are already being witnessed.

The US weather forecaster also projected last week a 65% chance of El Niño conditions during the Northern Hemisphere winter and into spring, up from a 58% chance predicted early in November.