Wichita State, San Diego State, Michigan—we hope you're enjoying your stay in the NCAA tournament. According to the statistical whizzes at the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective, it won't even last through the week.

John Ezekowitz, a junior at Harvard and the HSAC president, completed a model that empirically shows the likelihood of upsets in Thursday's and Friday's games. He found that 12th-seeded Virginia Commonwealth (pictured)—a surprise Final Four team last season—is the low seed with the best chance to win, giving...