Between July 6 and 7, China’s Prime Minister Li Keqiang met with his counterparts from the 16 CEE states in Bulgaria's capital, Sofia, for the 7th16+1 China-CEE Summit. The initiative, launched in 2012, is the key vehicle for China's engagement with the region. However, the 16+1 continues to be plagued by a disparity in the expectations held by CEE states (fuelled by hyperbolic pledges from China to invest in the region) and the inadequate outcomes of the 16+1 up to date.

While 16+1 trade volume has continued to grow, a high imbalance remains, and in 2016, Chinese exports to CEE exceeded imports by twelvefold. On the investment front, the results for the 16 CEE countries have been relatively modest. Premier Li claims that Chinese investments in the CEE region amount to $10 billion, but this number includes significant loans accredited by China to some of the CEE states. Investments made in China by all the 16 CEE countries only amounted to a joint value of $1.4 billion.

On top of this, the flagship Belgrade-Budapest railway project continues to make small progress due to the EU Commission's inquiries into the bidding process, that did not meet EU standards. This case reflects a major issue, which is Western Europe's and Brussels' perception of 16+1 as China’s tool for influencing the EU. In this view, China is seen as attempting to push forward its own political agenda within the EU using economic leverage over the CEE member states. Although this accusation is disputable, given the economic leverage China has over the 11 CEE EU member states[1] is not as high as might be expected, the resultant negative perception has been a thorn in the side of the 16+1 initiative.

However, while the 16+1 may have not lived up to its expectations up to now, the shifting geopolitical landscape may yet change this situation and unlock new opportunities for BRI in CEE, "the Gateway to the EU". The future of the 16+1 is likely to reflect a triangle of relationships between China, the EU, and the US. As the Trump administration pushes its protectionist agenda and engages in a trade war with China, while simulatanously calling the EU "a foe" over trade tensions, China has been making attempts to establish a united stance with the EU. The 16+1 platform has been a major concern for the latter and this year's 16+1 Summit shows Chinese is willing to make concessions towards Brussels and Western European capitals (especially Berlin) to alleviate some of their concerns.

China’s attempts in this regard start even before the summit this year. Firstly, the 2018 16+1 Summit took place half a year earlier than usual. There were no new developments since the Budapest Summit (November 2017) that could justify such a change. Also, there were no plans to increase the frequency of meetings back in November 2017. Quite the opposite, there were rumors that Chinese authorities were contemplating switching the annual summit into a biennial model, as not enough progress was being made on annual basis to justify such frequent meetings. The most likely reason for moving the summit earlier was to position it closer to the China-EU Summit, which took place on July 16. Moving the 16+1 Summit to July 6 – only 10 days apart from the China-EU Summit - has been widely interpreted as an attempt to harmonize the two mechanisms and fully include 16+1 in the wider framework of China-EU relations.

Secondly, these signs went beyond just rhetoric, as China made additional efforts to show its EU partners (especially Germany) that it was willing to adjust its approach towards CEE, adhere to EU regulations and to work jointly with the region. For instance, China's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi, commented that China is actively considering inviting Germany to participate together with China in a trilateral framework along the lines of 16+1+1. What is more, right after the 16+1 Summit held in Sofia, Premier Li visited Berlin. During the visit he stated that China will welcome more investments from the EU and as proof, a preliminary agreement for the construction of a $10 billion chemical complex that is to be constructed by BASF SE in Guangdong was signed. Interestingly, it is to be the first agreement of its type in which a foreign company will be the sole owner.