The sad thing is, despite two national referendums, we won’t have a single electoral statistic that tells us how many Kiwis support a change of flag, says Geoff.

This Thursday, March 24, the second flag referendum results will be revealed and supporters of our old flag will proudly boast "two thirds of New Zealanders voted to keep the existing flag".

Right? Wrong. Very wrong.

Such a result will simply mean two thirds voted not to change it to the alternate blue/black fern design.

In fact many people who hate the old flag have already voted for it as the lesser of two evils. Better to stay with ol' average and have the chance of getting this right next time (and despite political intimidation, there will be a next time), than change to the new slightly-better-than-average design for the rest of our lives.

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The sad thing is that, despite two national referendums, we won’t actually have a single electoral statistic that tells us how many Kiwis support a change of flag. It wasn’t asked in the first referendum. It wasn’t asked in the second referendum.

When you learn market research 101 at university, or from any other training provider, you are taught very early on to be clear on the research answers you want at the end of the process so you can ensure you ask the right questions up front.

The fact that after two referendums, and $26 million, we won’t have this basic statistic is utterly inexcusable, and the people involved for such a blunder must be held to account. After all, a first year student working in isolation wouldn’t have made this mistake.

Survey...

Ignoring your view on the quality of the alternate flag design or the process so far, as a general principle do you support a change of flag?

Yes – we should change our flag

No – we should stay with the current flag

• If it turns out only 40 per cent support a change of flag then we’d know to leave it alone for a few years until support rises to at least 50 per cent.

• If however, 60 per cent support a change of flag then we’d know we got this flag question right, but the flag design process very wrong (which we actually already know anyway).

CLEAR WINNER

Ultimately, the alternate blue/black design won’t win and, whichever side of the fence you sit on, that’s a great thing.

You might not be able to see it now, but over the coming years our great nation will start to proudly display the symbols, colours, and flag designs it loves and a clear winner will start to emerge.

The Canadian and South African flags, both of which are held in such high regard, had shortlists of designs far worse than ours. This created immense debate and divided the nations.

In both situations the process was only saved at the 11th hour by last minute solutions. Similarly, there are great new New Zealand designs we haven’t even seen yet.

A brave political leader and party will ask the question again when the time is right. Any laws blocking a flag change for 50 years, if they even exist, will be changed. Perhaps we’ll even become a republic and force the issue.

Whatever the future, like all the best stories, this is far from the end. There is a twist or two in this flag tale yet.