LAB between 25% or just 13% and BRX ranges from 27% to 37%

The final polls on the eve of the 2019 Euros look very confusing and it is hard to find a clear picture. The Tories range from 7% to 14% while the LDs are polling between 12% and 19%.

Only one on the list had any fieldwork taking place today the rest were all closed yesterday thus not picking up any late swing which we know can happen in other elections. How, for instance, have today’s Tory party stories impacted on what voters will do. I can never remember an election when all the talk at Westminster on the afternoon before polling day was of the possibility of the PM being forced out that night.

What we do know is that there is a lot of tactical voting taking place. For many those decisions could come at the last minute. Will, for instance, pro-Remain LAB GE2017 voters stick with their party or could they decide to vote for one of the unequivocally anti-Brexit parties and if so which.

The polling suggests that the Lib Dem message about being the strongest party for remain appears to have had an impact and it might pick up more backing on the day. Certainly it does not seem to have been harmed by Bollocks to Brexit.

The one sure message is that a big proportion of GE2017 CON voters will be going with Mr. Farage who will likely attract former LAB voters as well.

The results won’t be announced until 10pm on Sunday.

I am aware of at least one on the day poll that might give us an indication.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB



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