Denver Broncos 2018 Goal: QB

Since their win in Super Bowl L and the retirement of Peyton Manning, the Denver Broncos have had arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. Trevor Siemian showed flashes of talent in the first four games of the 2017 season but ultimately regressed to his 7th round pick pedigree. Paxton Lynch was a disaster at the Broncos’ helm and had difficulty staying healthy and learning a pro-style offense. It is therefore unsurprising that, at the conclusion of Denver’s dreadful 5-11 2017 season, GM John Elway made it clear the Broncos offseason priority would be finding a new quarterback.

In 2018, a number of veteran QBs could be available through free agency or trade, including Tyrod Taylor, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Sam Bradford, Case Keenum, and Kirk Cousins. Early reports are Cousins is someone the Broncos intend to pursue.

Unfortunately, signing Cousins may not be a realistic move for the Broncos. Denver will have about $27 million in cap space in 2018. Cousins is set to make $34 million next season if the Redskins choose to franchise tag him, though Head Coach Jay Gruden has indicated he wants Cousins signed to a long-term deal. That deal is projected to be in the neighborhood of $100 million over four years.

If the Redskins do part ways with Cousins, the Broncos will have a hard time winning a bidding war with the Jets or Browns. Denver’s front office does not restructure contracts, and cutting Aqib Talib or C. J. Anderson would not be enough to match the cap space that other Cousins suitors possess. If the Broncos do not find a new signal caller through free agency, they will select one in the 2018 NFL Draft, which boasts a number of talented quarterbacks.

Here are four possible choices I think they could target:

Sam Darnold

Redshirt Sophomore – USC

Darnold threw for 4136 yards and 26 touchdowns with a 63.1% completion percentage in 2017. He also threw 13 interceptions and rushed for 5 touchdowns.

Darnold’s sophomore season was markedly worse than his 2016 campaign, when he threw 31 touchdowns with just 9 interceptions. He has struggled with decision making and confidence but has excellent arm strength and accuracy. Scouts have praised Darnold’s ball placement and anticipation, drawing comparisons to Andrew Luck.

Darnold and UCLA’s Josh Rosen are the consensus top QB prospects in the class, making them potential #1 picks for Browns GM John Dorsey, who is rumored to dislike Rosen. Likewise, Rosen has signaled disinterest in playing for the Browns. Add in Rosen’s concussion history and off-the-field issues, and Cleveland will likely pass. Darnold offers a strong passer to compete with DeShone Kizer and lead their rebuild.

My Early Prediction: Landing spot: #1 – Cleveland Browns

Josh Rosen

Junior – UCLA

Rosen threw for 3717 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He also rushed for 2 touchdowns.

Rosen is the best pocket passer in the 2018 QB class. His mechanics and vision are solid, and he plays under center, which is rare for a college quarterback.

Teams worry about his maturity, character, and durability. Rosen missed part of his sophomore season with a shoulder injury and this year’s Cactus Bowl with a concussion.

Giants President and CEO John Mara has ordered his front office to find a franchise quarterback and successor to Eli Manning. Marc Ross, VP of Player Evaluation, has personally scouted Rosen. With Darnold off the board, the Giants will take Rosen and give their new Head Coach a franchise quarterback for the future.

My Early Prediction: Landing spot: #2 – New York Giants

Josh Allen

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Redshirt Junior – Wyoming

Allen threw for 1812 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He also rushed for 5 touchdowns. His 2017 QBR of 52.6 ranked 75th in the nation and a shoulder injury sidelined him for Wyoming’s final two regular season games.

Allen only completed 56% of his passes in 2017 and threw 15 interceptions in 2016. He is widely regarded as a work-in-progress but draws comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger for his physical toughness and potent arm strength. No QB prospect in the past decade with a completion percentage as low as Allen’s has become a solid NFL starter. Analysts predict him going anywhere from the #1 pick in the first round to somewhere in Day 2.

John Elway loves QBs with raw physical tools, height, and arm strength (see: Paxton Lynch). But Elway is also in win-now mode with a strong defense and won’t add another project QB to his roster, especially not one who had far worse stats in college than Lynch did. I see Allen going to the Cardinals, who can develop him behind Blaine Gabbert or a veteran QB signed to replace Carson Palmer.

My Early Prediction: Landing spots: #6 – Jets, #13 – Redskins, #15 – Cardinals

Baker Mayfield

Redshirt Senior – Oklahoma

The 2017 Heisman Winner, Mayfield threw for a staggering 4627 yards, 43 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He added 6 more touchdowns from scrimmage. Mayfield’s 2017 QBR of 92.6 was the nation’s highest.

A fiery competitor and leader, Mayfield has average arm strength, but excellent accuracy, anticipation, and ball placement. He’s a dangerous runner and extends plays with ease.

The Broncos front office skipped the Rose Bowl, but will directly coach Mayfield in the Senior Bowl. They are rumored to be interested in taking him at #5 if they don’t sign Cousins.

Although John Elway may discount Mayfield for his below-average height and hand size, Elway also values “swagger” and “confidence” as hugely important in prospect success. Perhaps Mayfield’s poise was partly why the Broncos wanted him on their Senior Bowl team.

I expect Mayfield to impress Broncos QB coach Mike Sullivan and OC Bill Musgrave in Mobile. His Oklahoma career 70% completion rate and 12.0 adjusted passing yards per attempt are both higher than Andrew Luck’s were at Stanford.

If Denver misses on a QB in free agency, and John Elway doesn’t trade Cleveland a fortune for the #1 pick, the Broncos are a good bet to take Mayfield at #5.

My Early Prediction: Landing spots: #5 – Broncos, #6 – Jets, #13 – Redskins