Based on political positioning defined by affiliation in the European parliament, the eight countries on centre-left comprise about 32.5% of the EU’s population

Only a third of the EU is governed by the centre-left

These are challenging times for Europe’s centre-left parties.

Since last year’s European parliament elections, where the centre-right European People’s party (EPP) emerged as the largest bloc, there have been 13 parliamentary and presidential elections in the EU. Of these, the centre-left has won only one – in Sweden.

Following the ousting of Denmark’s centre-left government last Thursday, only a third of the EU’s population of 503 million is now led by a centre-left head of government or state. Austria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, France, Italy, Malta, Slovakia and Sweden are the only EU members that are on the centre-left.

EU heads of government/state NB. For Denmark it is assumed a Venstre-led government will be formed.

Defining the political orientation of a government isn’t as straightforward as it may initially sound.

First, different voting systems make coalitions more likely in some countries than in others. Second, the distribution and separation of powers between the head of government (the prime minister) and the head of state (usually the president, or a monarch) differs across the continent. And third, every pundit will have their own definition of what it means to be centre-left.

However, one definition that can be used is membership of the European council, the EU institution that comprises the heads of state or government of the 28 member states. And political positioning defined by affiliation in the European parliament.

Based on this definition, the eight countries on the centre-left together comprise about 32.5% of the EU’s population. Even including Romania, where there have been disputes in the past between the president’s and the prime minister’s offices on who should attend the council, would take the tally to 36% of the EU’s population.

One explanation for the changing political landscape in Europe is, of course, the nature of electoral cycles. In fact, after the previous Danish election in 2011, the landscape was even more dire for Europe’s centre-left. Back then, only 14.5% of the 28 countries’ total population was led by the centre-left.

Following the vote before that, though, in 2007, it was nearly 45%.

With elections coming up later this year in Portugal and Spain, the centre-left might have the opportunity to rebalance the scales slightly.

In Portugal, the Socialist party led by António Costa has a small lead in the polls. And in Spain, although the conservative People’s party was the largest party in recent local elections (and leads in the national polls), it is set to lose half its regional governments due to the combined support for the socialist PSOE and leftwing Podemos. If a similar result were repeated at the general election, a fragmented parliament may spell the end to Mariano Rajoy’s four years in office.

On the other hand, elections in Poland, also due later this year, will provide little solace for the centre-left. The contest there is between the centre-right Civic Platform (PO) and the more conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party.