It was the first of a series of election and voting-related bills Gov. Ralph Northam (D) signed a week ago.

Democratic lawmakers were pleased. House Majority Leader Charniele L. Herring (D-Alexandria) praised all concerned for “breaking down barriers to voting,” and Sen. L. Louise Lucas (D-Portsmouth) said the package of bills would help create “more access to the ballot box, not less.”

AD

There’s little doubt new laws like automatic voter registration and (in 2022) same-day voter registration will expand the pool of potential voters in any election.

AD

But will any of the measures Northam signed affect voter turnout or, the bigger question, favor one political party over another?

I asked University of Richmond professor Daniel Palazzolo for his insights.

He said “a more open democracy doesn’t necessarily mean a more vibrant democracy.”

That might come as a shock to partisans, who equate ease of ballot access with more votes cast.

Palazzolo said the laws like expanded early voting, longer voting hours, repealing voter identification requirements and automatic registration do, indeed, expand access. “But," he said, "laws that expand voter access, by themselves, don’t increase voter turnout.”

AD

The theory of lowering barriers “is compelling,” Palazzolo said.

“Yet, most studies show that voter turnout depends more on the candidates, the issues, and efforts made by candidates and parties to register and mobilize voters than on modest changes in election law.”

AD

Which takes us back to campaign fundamentals and solving the trickiest variable of all: Getting voters interested in what a particular campaign is selling.

Because this boring old stuff still matters, Palazzolo says “we are more likely to see the rate of voter turnout in Virginia vary from election to election than to reach and maintain a consistently higher level” after the new laws take effect.

AD

The changes Northam signed “are about providing access to the ballot, which is an important democratic value, but voter turnout requires more than greater access.”

Palazollo said the research on the effects of more and earlier absentee voting, for example, have shown “limited or null effects on turnout.” That’s partly because states such as Virginia already have absentee voting.

As for dropping the photo ID requirement, Palazzolo said that the ID requirement implemented in the commonwealth in 2014 had, at best, a minimal effect on turnout.

AD

Repealing the requirement may have sent a necessary and pointed civic message, but don’t expect a wave of voters to show up at the polls now that it is gone.

AD

The one measure Palazzolo thinks could change turnout is the same-day registration law that will take effect in 2022.

“This is one to watch,” Palazzolo said, because it has “the most potential for increasing turnout of a small number of voters.”

Another change that could have a much more profound effect on turnout, and potentially election outcomes, is removing the constitutional barriers to restoring felons’ voting rights.

Though strides have been made on this issue since the McDonnell administration, Palazzolo said making restoration automatic for felons who have served their time is something Virginia still needs to do.

That’s not to disparage what the General Assembly accomplished. Palazzolo said lawmakers have “established a new norm for a more open, accessible and progressive voting system in Virginia.”

AD

AD

“A more inclusive democracy is a good thing,” he said. Just don’t expect the numbers of people voting to increase or for one party to reap all the benefits of the changes.

Candidates and campaigns are still the key to turnout. At least now, though, we won’t have to lie about that family trip to get an absentee ballot.