Week 4: Workin’ the Wire

Alllllll Aboarrrrrrrd.

After his 301 yard game in which he completed 74% of his passes, I am purchasing my ticket to board the Wentz Wagon. Doug Pederson has let the rookie sling it 37, 34, and 31 times in his first three games. Those pass attempts have come in three comfortable wins. In games that are close, or the Eagles are playing catch-up, we could easily see 40+ attempts which should translate into some nice fantasy days.

On the other side of the ledger I am ready to move on from Marcus Mariota. He hasn’t looked great through the first three weeks. His 214/0/2 against a Raiders defense that has been torched for more passing yards than any team in the league not from New Orleans was the final straw.

As for the tight ends, it is time to roster Cameron Brate. With ASJ being released, he will get more opportunities. He made the most of his opportunity on Sunday cashing in his 10 targets for 5/46/2.

I liked Zach Miller coming into the season as a cheap option if you wanted to wait at the tight end position. Through two weeks he was non-existent grabbing seven balls for 47 yards. Sunday night, with the ultra-conservative Brian Hoyer running the show, Miller was heavily involved in the short-to-intermediate passing game posting 8/78/2. As long as Hoyer is at the helm, Miller is a viable option.

Start’em

Joe Flacco vs. OAK

My attraction to Flacco (not physical, he looks like Bert from Sesame Street…it’s just not my type) was based on the sheer volume in which he will throw the ball in a Marc Trestman offense. Through three weeks he has not disappointed on the volume front. Only five quarterbacks have thrown it more than Flacco. With the Raiders second worst ranked passing defense coming to town, you can bank on another 40+ pass attempts coming from Flacco. The fact that this will be the Raiders second trip to the east coast in as many weeks won’t make things any easier for them.

Philip Rivers vs. N.O.

Did you watch MNF? At this point, the Saints defense makes the aforementioned Raiders look like the 85′ Bears. The injury to Woodhead has put the full workload of the running game on the shoulders of Melvin Gordon. In his 17 career games he has only carried the ball more than 18 times once. The Chargers run an average of 63 plays per game. By my count, there is going to be plenty of opportunities for Rivers to chuck it against this awful defense.

Zach Miller vs. DET

Miller gets the distinct honor of being the first person to appear in the waiver and start’em section in the same week of my articles. I hope he is proud of this monumental achievement.

As mentioned earlier, as long as Hoyer is throwing the ball he will rely on his accuracy in the short-to-intermediate passing game in which Miller will thrive. Even if Cutler is able to make it back this week, Miller is still a strong play. The Lions haven’t had much success in stopping the opposing tight ends allowing a league high four touchdowns to the position.

Jordan Reed vs. CLE

I know. I know. I said I wasn’t going to nominate “obvious starters,” but we are three weeks into the season and Jordan Reed is the 15th rated fantasy tight end. I have a feeling there are some owners out there who are panicking. Fear not my fellow Reed owners, this is the week he lives up to that late-third round ADP.

Targets haven’t been the issue for Reed. He is averaging a healthy eight per week. The Browns are allowing just a shade under six catches per week to opposing tight ends. The more concerning statistic is that they have allowed 80% of the targets to opposing tight ends to be completed. Stick with Reed, he goes off this week.

Jason Witten @ S.F.

After exploding in Week 1 for nine receptions, Witten has been quiet the past two weeks. A trip to San Fransisco might just be what the doctor ordered. In each of the last two weeks the 49ers have allowed 100+ yards and a touchdown to the opposing tight end. I have said before that Witten offers little upside in standard leagues, but this could be a week where you could get away with using him. A 100 yards might be a bit much to ask from him when you consider he hasn’t hit that plateau since the last game of the 2013 season, but he should be in line for a 6/75 type game and maybe he can find the end zone.

Sit’em

Derek Carr @ BAL

I don’t expect the Raiders to show up this weekend, including Derek Carr. West coast teams coming east for kicks rarely turn out well for the traveling team. Doing it back to back weeks makes it even more difficult.

The Ravens have been tough on opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed the fewest amount of passing yards, and the third fewest amount of fantasy points. Carr has been strong through the first three weeks of the season, but I am looking elsewhere this week.

Eli Manning @ MIN

In case you haven’t realized this yet, the Vikings defense is really good. Cam Newton isn’t an easy quarterback to sack. Well, the Vikings got him eight times last week. Now factor in that they are 3-0 and hosting a MNF game in their new stadium. Sprinkle in the lack of a ground game to keep the pass rush off-balance, and this is a recipe for a disaster game for Manning.

The Vikings are currently sitting about middle of the pack in regards to fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. However, keep in mind that two of those games came against Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers who were almost unanimously ranked as the top two fantasy quarterbacks coming into this season. Additionally, Newton and Rodgers fantasy point totals were boosted by a rushing touchdown, something they won’t have to worry about with Eli.

Russell Wilson @ NYJ

Wilson is expected to play this week despite suffering a sprained MCL in Week 3. He might be on the field Sunday, but he needs to be kept on your bench in the fantasy world. Wilson’s bread and butter is his legs. He has piled up the rushing yards over the years, but that is only the half of it. His mobility allows him to extend plays, which allows his receivers time to get open and make plays down the field. He has yet to surpass 260 yards in a game, or throw for multiple touchdown passes with the banged up ankle. The knee will only make matters worse. Without the mobility he goes from a lethal weapon to a sitting duck…or hawk, whatever.

Jimmy Graham vs. NYJ

Graham had five combined targets in the first two weeks. In Week 3 he nearly doubled his season total and turned those nine targets into 6/100/1.

Is Jimmy Graham back?

It is hard to say. I would like to see another week in which he is heavily involved in the offensive game plan. I am not ready to trust him, despite a decent matchup against a Jets defense that just allowed Kelce to go for 6/89/1.

Gary Barnidge @ WAS

Barnidge finally showed some life last week posting 5/66. It has been a quarterback carousal in Cleveland and it seems he is having a hard time finding the chemistry. He might be able to eventually build some with Kessler, but this week he faces a Washington defense that hasn’t surrendered more than 51 yards to an opposing tight end in any of its first three games. Keep him reserved until there is some stability at the quarterback position in Cleveland.

Stack Play: Newton to Olsen

The Falcons have allowed 10 touchdown passes through three games. My math isn’t the sharpest, but that is over three a game. They have allowed a touchdown to the opposing tight end in each week as well. Let’s review the pertinent information here:

They have allowed more touchdown passes than any team in the league.

They have allowed the opposing tight end to score each week.

It surely can’t be that easy can it?

Hit me up @barkballin.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________

(Click the RED link below to listen)

Major League Fantasy Football Radio: Join Ej Garr, Corey D Roberts, and Coach Jeff Nelson live Sunday October 2nd, 2016 from 11am-12:30pm EST for episode #70 of Major League Fantasy Football Radio. This is a live broadcast and we take callers at 323-870-4395 press 1 to speak with the hosts. We will be breaking down key matchups, discussing fantasy start/sit, some DFS, and handicapping as well.

Jeff is the defensive coach for Freedom H.S. in PA, an 8 year veteran of Major League Fantasy Sports, and 3 time champion. Our special guest is future FSTA Hall of Famer Lenny Melnick. He will join us from 12-12:12:30pm EST. Be sure to tune in.

You can find our shows on I-Tunes. Just search for Major League Fantasy Sports in the podcasts section. For Android users go to “Podcast Republic,” then download that app, and search for “Major League Fantasy Sports Show”

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