Now that A Raja finally is out on bail what does his political future hold for him? More importantly how safe is he given he is supposed to be the man who knows too much in the case?

Now that the former telecom minister A Raja is out on bail in the 2G case, the most eagerly awaited question in Tamil Nadu is about his political future and his access to the Karunanidhi household.

Will he get a grand reception from the DMK cadres similar to what Kanimozhi got on her release? Will he immediately get to meet Karunanidhi?

How will the new de-facto command-and-control under Stalin handle him? Will Raja have any party-role at all?

And if one goes by Subramaniam Swamy’s warning, will he be safe outside jail?

There are no strong indications from the DMK but sources close to the party say Raja is not Kanimozhi. Kanimozhi was family and is very dear to the DMK patriarch Karunanidhi and hence her return was a different story. Karunanidhi also believed that she had no role in the 2G scam and was a victim of circumstances.

But Raja is an outsider, who made it big through shrewd use of his community base, political opportunities, and acquired-proximity to Karunanidhi through the late Murasoli Maran and Rajathi Ammal, Kanimozhi’s mother.

And the 2G taint that he brought to the party was much bigger than anybody anticipated. It also cost them a critical election.

While she was in jail, Kanimozhi had daily visitors from the party and its first family. When she landed in Chennai on her release from Tihar, she walked into a deafening celebration that made a victor and martyr out of her. It was Karunanidhi’s wish.

But in Raja’s case, he may have to engineer a reception using his political resources from his hometown of Perambalur in southern Tamil Nadu. He has no roots in Chennai.

Karunanidhi’s response to the news that Raja has moved the court for bail was completely devoid of any emotions or anticipation.

“If Ravanan can get bail, why not Raja?” was his cryptic answer.

Ravanan, a close relatives of Sasikala, was arrested by the state police on a series of criminal charges and then let out on bail later.

To another question, if Raja will be given the same kind of reception that Kanimozhi received, Karunanidhi didn’t say much. Veteran DMK observers said the patriarch appeared cold to the idea.

They recalled Karunanidhi’s statement in the beginning of the 2G scam that “bad friends will get you into trouble.” They are still not completely sure if by 'bad friends' he meant Raja or the Congress. Such ambiguous one-liners are vintage Karunanidhi and one has to often read meanings into them.

If the Kanimozhi-household and Karunanidhi do not appear overtly warm towards the jail-returnee Raja, he will have no role of consequence in the DMK. Now that Stalin has ascended to a decisive role, Raja will need his patronage as well.

Even during his peak in the DMK, Stalin’s interest in Raja, at best, has been plain indifference. Other than from Karunanidhi, Rajathi Ammal and the ring of leaders close to her, Raja didn’t have much patronage from the rest of the party leadership.

That the 2G taint was a key reason for the DMK’s rout in the recently assembly elections will be a allegation that Raja will have to fight if he has to persist with his political ambitions. He may still have support in his constituency and his hometown, but to survive in the DMK or move forward an inch, he will need the patronage of both Karunanidhi and Stalin.

During his heydays, Raja used to be a regular fixture in almost all public appearances by Karunanidhi’s public appearances. He also made a virtue out of the proximity and would place himself visibly close to the leader. However, when the 2G scam broke out, he was slowly eased out.

Now the bigger question; will he safe outside jail?

When Raja refused to seek bail while all the other accused in the case left the jail one by one, the biggest speculation in Tamil Nadu was that he preferred to stay back in Tihar because it was safer. The speculation stemmed from the sudden and mysterious suicide of his close accomplice Sadiq Batcha in March 2011 before he was to be questioned by the CBI.

Reportedly, he was the crucial link that could have helped the CBI establish the all-important trail of the 2G cash.

Subramanian Swamy said on 11 May that Raja’s life was under threat outside the jail and hence he should be provided security in case he gets bail. Swamy said Raja “knew too much,” a term that many used to describe Batcha too.

Raja has been smart and shrewd, both as a politician and as an undertrial in the biggest scam in independent India. He maintained a disciplined life in the jail, always appeared defiant, in control in his court appearances and also argued his case vigorously from time to time.

It will be him, and only him, who can decipher what lies s in store for him. That includes his safety as well.