Photodisc

ONE of the few certain facts surrounding the disappearance of an Iranian former deputy defence minister is his name: Ali Reza Asghari. Most of the other circumstances are hotly disputed. Has he defected, as most westerners and many Arabs are assuming? Or was he abducted by Mossad or the Americans, as Iran's police chief and some of the Arab press speculate? Is he still in Turkey (where he disappeared), as the police chief believes or in Europe, as others claim? Some say that he is on his way to America; others that he slipped his family out of the country quietly before his trip.

Iranian sources denied that part of the story to a Turkish newspaper, saying his wife had called, concerned about him. The same newspaper said that Iran knew of three calls he made from his mobile phone when he arrived in Turkey: two within the country and one to Egypt. Despite the contradictory claims it seems clear that he disappeared around February 7th while in Istanbul.

Iran did not confirm his disappearance to the Turks for ten days. Turkey's foreign minister, Abdullah Gul, has said that his country is working with Iranian intelligence to find him, and other Turkish officials say he is still there. But this could be mere diplomatic courtesy, to spare the Iranians the embarrassing confirmation that Mr Asghari is lost to them. Iran's silence is probably one of sheepishness.

Little timidity was apparent in the statement of one American intelligence official who told the Washington Post that Mr Asghari is co-operating willingly with western intelligence, and that America has complete access to what he is saying. What might he know? Possibly he has information about Iran's nuclear programme. Western countries believe it is designed to build bombs. Iran denies the charge. Iranians insist that Mr Asghari has been “out of the loop” for years, and anyway had nothing to do with the nuclear programme. Milliyet, a Turkish newspaper wherein some of the more tantalising reporting on the story lies, says Turkish security sources believe Mr Asghari does know about Iran's nuclear work.

Whatever knowledge he has of Iran's nuclear capabilities, Mr Asghari will be almost as tempting a catch for what else he knows. He was a high-ranking commander in the Revolutionary Guard, which leads Iran's terror activities abroad. Mr Asghari was the organisation's head in Beirut in the 1980s. The Israelis believe he played an important role in the creation of Hizbullah. Some even call him the “founder” of the Lebanese Shia militia.

The many terrorist attacks carried out by the group include bombings of the American marine barracks, and the American and the French embassies in Beirut in the early 1980s, and the bombing of a Jewish cultural centre in Argentina in 1994. Mr Asghari may also know about the attack on an American army facility in Khobar, in Saudi Arabia, in 1996, and more besides. Israelis may suspect he can shed light on the fate of Ron Arad, a pilot shot down over Lebanon in 1986 and believed to have been passed on to the Iranians.

This is of more than historical interest. His connection to the Revolutionary Guard might put Mr Asghari in a position to know quite a bit about Iran's involvement in Iraq. American officials have recently claimed that Iran is arming Shia militias in its troubled neighbour with sophisticated armour-piercing weapons. Some worry that this could be used as a casus belli if America decides to strike at Iran. If Iran is indeed innocent, Mr Asghari's testimony might slow down any drive towards hostilities.

It is not clear why he might have defected, and his motivations will determine what he reveals. Israeli sources told Al-Sharq al-Awsat, an Arab newspaper in London, that he was bitter at his removal from his post as deputy defence minister. Such commonplace frustrations are often the source of surprising changes of allegiance. But there is much more still to be learned about why he left Iran, for which he was so long a soldier, and what use he may be to its western adversaries.