LOS ANGELES—The box-office Force is strong with “The Rise of Skywalker”—but not as strong as with previous Star Wars movies.

The final installment of Walt Disney Co.’s most recent trilogy of the space saga, which opens Thursday, is expected to make about $200 million this weekend in the U.S. and Canada, according to preliminary industry estimates. That is slightly less than its immediate predecessor, “Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” which made its debut to $220 million in 2017, and further behind the 2015 installment, “The Force...