With a few more revolutions of the first soccer ball kicked in Wednesday’s semifinal shootout between Argentina and the Netherlands, the entire tenor of the World Cup could have changed.

Dutch defender Ron Vlaar took the opening kick in the shoootout and his low screamer to the right side of the goal was emphatically blocked by Argentina’s goalkeeper Sergio Romero. That Netherlands miss set the tone for the Argentinian blowout that was to come.

But what viewers didn’t see was what happened after the block. While networks across the world quickly cut to the celebration on Argentina’s sideline, the deflected soccer ball was sent high into the air, toward a disappointed Vlaar, who had to dodge the ball while it landed. When it did, the ball was full of spin that caused it to check backward like a Phil Mickelson wedge shot. With Romero off celebrating his save, the ball trickled toward the goal line, but remarkably came to a stop directly on the chalk. A few more inches and it would have given the Netherlands one of the most unlikely scores in World Cup history.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DZACTqM76o

It’s not unprecedented for a blocked penalty kick to roll back into the goal, though never in the opening kick of a shootout in a World Cup semifinal. What would have happened if this one had pulled the trick?

First, there would have been major controversy about whether the goal would have counted. When the ball spins toward Vlaar, he comes ever-so-close to touching it. After watching the replay dozens of times, he appears to dodge it, but it’s far from conclusive.

Would the referee have seen it the same way? He and Vlaar exchange looks when the ball checks up on the line, but it’s not clear whether the ref is waving him off because the ball didn’t cross the line or because he believes Vlaar hit it, thus nullifying anything that happened after. Either decision would have resulted in a major controversy.

But let’s say the goal was awarded. How would the rest of the shooutout have been affected? Argentina still won 4-2, so Vlaar’s goal wasn’t the decider. But his opening miss put the Netherlands in a huge early hole while a buoyed Argentina was facing goalie Jasper Cillessen, who had never saved a penalty kick in his life. Essentially, it was all but over after Vlaar’s miss.

Could avoiding the negative energy of the opening miss have turned the tide? If Vlaar’s shot had rolled back a few more inches, would Lionel Messi have been tighter for his first shot? Would this be Argentina’s payback for Maradona’s Hand of God goal from 1986? Or would it all have been a mere footnote to the Argentina-Germany final that’s to come?