The Padres have made it a priority to improve their starting pitching. There can be no doubt it is immensely important to them.

Just not that important. Yet.

The Padres want to be better in 2019. But not at the expense of 2020, ’21, ’22, ‘23 and … you get the idea.

In the team’s brief pursuit of James Paxton, who ended up being traded by the Mariners to the Yankees, there was an indication the Padres have a limit as to how much they will give up in order to add.


They are firmly in play for Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard, who several people in baseball are convinced will be traded before the start of the ’19 season. But the Padres’ blunted Paxton pursuit shows they are opposed to overpaying at this point.

For Paxton, a 30-year-old left-hander who has a 3.42 ERA and has allowed a mere 1.19 walks and hits per innings pitched over 102 major league starts, the Mariners got lefty Justus Sheffield, a 22-year-old who is ranked by MLB.com as the 31st-best prospect in baseball.

Padres General Manager A.J. Preller was not interested in discussing who the Padres were or were not willing to give up for Paxton.

A league source, speaking on the condition of anonymity about the talks between the teams, expressed surprise the Mariners went with the Yankees over what the Padres had to offer. But two sources explained that among the multiple scenarios discussed between the Padres and Seattle, the Padres were unwilling to include any of their top half-dozen or so prospects. The Mariners were not after Fernando Tatis Jr., but the Padres were also opposed to letting go of Chris Paddack, Adrian Morejon or Michel Baez.


That helps explain why Preller has said: “Prospect pitching is probably the smart way to go,” and multiple people familiar with the Padres’ short- and long-term plans have predicted it is far more likely they don’t add a top-of-the-rotation piece this offseason.

They would love to acquire Syndergaard, or one of maybe a dozen other quality starting pitchers they are talking about that we don’t know about.

But Preller is performing a balancing act making sure he does not throw away the future while attempting to make it arrive quicker.

The Padres have seven minor league starting pitchers ranked among the top 92 prospects in baseball. Their projected arrivals range from Paddack (35) and Logan Allen (76), who are expected to pitch in the majors in 2019, to MacKenzie Gore (13), Luis Patino (83) and Ryan Weathers (92), who are projected to arrive by 2021 if not 2020. In between are Morejon (46) and Baez (57), possible 2019 or ’20 promotions.


And that doesn’t even include Anderson Espinoza, formerly the Padres’ top prospect, who hasn’t pitched the past two seasons and underwent Tommy John surgery in the summer of 2017.

If even two or three of those eight turn out to be starters who can pitch near the top of the rotation, it could be considered a successful group. The Padres, of course, expect at least that to happen, though they certainly know it might not.

That is one reason they seek an immediate anchor to the rotation who can also be around when they expect to contend in 2020 or ‘21.

Moreover, the Padres want a pitcher who is already what they expect those prospects to eventually be so that pitcher can lend expertise to the youngsters’ development while also providing a bridge until one or more of those prospects is able to assume the mantle of ace. Such an ascension is rarely instantaneous.


While the Padres believe they have the understanding (and thus, the patience) of a great deal of their fans, they also believe tangible improvement in 2019 is imperative to their process. That improvement, they know, is largely dependent on improved starting pitching.

However, the supplement they seek must meet certain criteria in terms of age and contractual control.

Paxton was right at the edge in terms of both.

He is eligible for free agency in 2021, and with Scott Boras as his agent it is a virtual guarantee he won’t be settling for anything less than the top of what his market demands and could begin seeking it from his current team after this coming season.


There are strong indications the Padres value the 26-year-old Syndergaard, who is almost four years younger and would come with one more year of club control, more highly than they did Paxton.

Given Syndergaard’s youth and success (2.93 ERA, 1.13 WHIP in 86 starts), reports suggesting the Mets will be looking for a haul in return, including major league talent, seem reasonable. The Padres have some of that to offer, though their real riches are in the minors.

Their willingness to part with more might be enhanced if they didn’t still have several holes to plug in order to be a consistent championship contender.

But the fact is, the Padres are still building. The reality of that could require them parting ways with a top prospect in order to get a third baseman.


So the next step could well be taken with Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer and Jacob Nix all still in the rotation. It could mean reliever Matt Strahm is the lone veteran infusion along with the anticipated midsummer return of Dinelson Lamet from Tommy John surgery.

And it could mean Paddack and/or Allen are allowed to grow into what the Padres hope they are while the organization waits for more and better players to arrive.

kevin.acee@sduniontribune.com