Prime Minister Justin Trudeau walks up to the microphone stand to face the media in Hamilton in May 2019. Gary Yokoyama/Hamilton Spectator.

Canadians are divided on what major federal party leader is most capable of strengthening the country’s economy in the coming years, new results from a poll conducted by Mainstreet Research for iPolitics suggest.

The second release of results from the polling firm’s phone survey of 2,651 Canadians — conducted between June 27 and July 2 — shows that 30.6 per cent of respondents said Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer was best equipped to move the Canadian economy forward, while 30.5 per cent opted for Prime Minister and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

A razor thin one-tenth of a percentage point difference falls within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 points, rendering it a statistical irrelevant lead for Scheer on the question of the economy.

Jagmeet Singh was a distant third (among the leaders), with only 7.3 per cent of respondents indicating they believed the NDP leader would best propel the economy. Green Party Leader Elizabeth May followed at 5.1 per cent and 4.2 per cent of respondents chose People’s Party of Canada (PPC) Leader Maxime Bernier.

“Someone else” was chosen by 3.8 per cent of respondents, while 15.7 per cent said they didn’t know. Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet was the choice of 2.7 per cent of respondents.

“The question of which party leader is best able to take the economy forward is usually a key indicator of which leader will win the election,” Mainstreet president and CEO Quito Maggi said in a statement.

“To see these numbers this tight indicates this election could be very close, despite Trudeau’s lead in our polling.”

As iPolitics reported last week, the Mainstreet poll had Trudeau’s Liberals leading the Tories by a two point margin, with 35 of respondents indicating they would vote Liberal and 33.2 per cent planning on casting their vote for the Tories.

BACKGROUNDER: As election nears, Liberals retake the lead from Tories: Mainstreet poll

Canada’s economy has posted record breaking job growth in recent months, with the country’s unemployment rate hitting 5.4 per cent in May, the lowest rate ever recorded by Statistics Canada since it started measuring comparable data in 1976.

A month earlier, in April, the economy added 107,000 jobs, the largest one-month employment gain on record.

Mainstreet’s poll suggests most Canadians are optimistic about the economy and their personal finances, though three out of four respondents said the cost of living has become less affordable and nearly two-thirds think it’s time for a change in Ottawa.

According to the survey, 53.6 per cent of respondents said that they were optimistic about the economy, with the highest numbers recorded in the vote-rich provinces of Quebec (64.4 per cent), Ontario (55.5 per cent) and B.C. (50 per cent). Fifty per cent of Atlantic Canadian respondents also expressed at least optimism in the economy.

Save for B.C., where the strength of the Greens has created a tight three-way race, the Liberals are leading in all of the aforementioned regions and provinces, the poll suggests.

Conversely, the Conservatives are nursing strong leads in Alberta and the Prairies, the only regions where a majority of respondents said they were not optimistic about the economy. In Alberta, where the province’s economy has been hammered by low oil prices, that number was only 36.8 per cent. Across the Prairies, it was 44.6 per cent.

It’s a similar picture when respondents were asked about their own household finances. Overall, 62.6 per cent said they were optimistic about their finances. Over 60 per cent of respondents in Quebec (67.2), Ontario (64.9), Atlantic Canada (62.4) and B.C. (60.7) voiced optimism about their personal finances, while in the Prairies it was 58.5 per cent and in Alberta, it was 49.4 per cent.

As well, 48.5 per cent of respondents said their financial situations had improved at least somewhat over the past four years, while 39.8 said it had gotten worse.

But despite this economic and financial optimism, 76 per cent respondents said the affordability of the cost of living has gotten worse over the past four years. The numbers were highest in B.C. (79.5 per cent) and Alberta (79.5), and lowest in Ontario (73.7) and Atlantic Canada (74.3).

Also, 61 per cent of respondents nationally said it was time for a change in the federal government, with 44.9 per cent strongly agreeing that this would be appropriate. Those numbers are lowest in Ontario (56.4 per cent), Atlantic Canada (56.9) and Quebec (59.3), and highest in Alberta (74.1), the Prairies (69.7) and B.C. (63.8).

The findings, Maggi said, paint a “nuanced picture” of how Canadians see the economy and how it will play out when they vote in October.

“If voters go to cast their ballots focusing on their feelings about the economy and their own finances, then Trudeau will benefit,” he explained.

“But if voters have the desire for change and how unaffordable they think life has become at the forefront of their thinking, then it will be Scheer who gets an edge.”

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