On Friday, a Washington D.C. hospital admitted a patient with possible Ebola symptons. If the patient is confirmed to have the virus, it would be the second documented case in the U.S.

While we know the public is concerned about the spread of this incredibly dangerous virus, what many may not know is that it has the potential to impact the stock market, and the economy, even if it doesn’t spread.

On Thursday, Yahoo Finance spoke with the Chief Economist at RBS, Michelle Girard, about trends in global markets and the economy, and she brought up the risk Ebola is posing to stocks and the economy.

“People trying to figure out what [a spread of Ebola] might mean, extrapolating forward. [It could be] a very dire scenario. I mean all of that uncertainty is what’s being priced into the market right now… that’s why you see this divergence between what the data are showing and what the markets are doing,” she said.

Yahoo Finance’s Jeff Macke pressed Girard on the real world impact. “Flying around in a vacuumed aluminum capsule [airplane], a petri dish there, and catching Ebola from 300 different people, it seems like it might be an economic headwind. Does this actually manifest itself into cancelled flights and plans?” he asked.

“It certainly depends on how serious and how widespread the situation becomes,” said Girard. “As it stands now, all of that seems very farfetched. Of course, people talk about, ‘What if it becomes airborne?’ And then you have a scenario where the borders are shut and people are afraid to travel, not just internationally, but perhaps domestically. If there are concerns about, as you said, being trapped on an airplane with the potential for somebody to be spreading the virus. Those are all the things that people are worried about, and you can understand that forward-looking investors are beginning to at least price in. [They] feel the need to price in some probability or some sort of risk of that [happening], albeit small.”

In general, though, “The economy here is very solid,” Girard said. “The outlook for the consumer is better, housing [improvement] is kicking in.”

To better understand what Ebola could do to the United States, it might help to look at what it’s done in the economies of West Africa, where the virus has wreaked havoc on the lives and livelihood of thousands of people. The CDC reports more than 3,300 people have died from that outbreak and more than 7,100 cases have been reported.



According to the Brookings Institution: “In addition to the enormous and tragic loss of human life, the Ebola epidemic is having devastating effects on these West African economies.”



The outbreak has impacted nearly ever sector of economic life. For example, quarantines mean goods cannot be transported and trade stalls. In West Africa – trade accounts for anywhere from 20-75% of GDP. Agriculture is impacted – infected people are unable to plant crops and shortages are driving food prices up. Still, “the most influential factor constraining economic activity there is fear.” That’s precisely what economists like Girard worry about with Ebola in the U.S.









Chances are any major outbreak in the states would be contained differently (and hopefully better) than in West Africa, thus limiting its economic impact. For example – many African countries are fighting a stigma tied to the disease that has prevented victims from coming forward – no such stigma exists here.

Still, if people begin to stay home – cancelling travel plans or skipping trips to the mall – that’s when the economic impact Girard warns about could start to kick in.