Rumor Rater

Hockey Christmas has come and gone.

As is the case every year, the National Hockey League trade deadline produced a flurry of transactions, with contenders loading up on talent for what they hope will be a long playoff run, while those less fortunate unload players and look to the future.

And where there are trades there are rumors.

The rise of the Internet and social media has also given rise to independent NHL insiders, who predict the comings and goings of hockey players throughout the year, with a particular focus on the trade deadline and the start of free agency on July 1.

To die-hard hockey fans, trade deadline rumors can produce excitement, anxiety and, frequently, outright vitriol when they don’t pan out. But just how accurate are they?

In an attempt to settle this question, The Star-Ledger analyzed every rumor published by three prominent hockey insiders – Eklund, HockeyyIndsiderr (the extra letters were likely required to secure a Twitter handle) and Spector's Hockey – in the month leading up to the trade deadline. Each rumor was logged in a database and when the trade deadline passed at 3 p.m. yesterday, analyzed for accuracy and assigned a score akin to the NHL standings system. (see more about how this was done below)

At the end of the day, one of these insiders came out looking like a Stanley Cup contender, while the other two would more likely be holding a fire sale of its players at the trade deadline after a horrid season:

Knowing that each of the insiders did not produce the same number of rumors, the Star-Ledger also tabulated a point-per-rumor average to level the playing field. The results did not show a significant difference, with Eklund and HockeyyInsiderr trailing Spector’s Hockey by a fairly wide margin:

The Results

There are a few things to note about the results:

• It should be said that what each of these insiders are trying to accomplish is incredibly difficult. These deals occur behind closed doors in 30 separate offices spread across two countries. There are loads of moving parts to any deal and negotiations change, fail and rekindle at a moment's notice, often among several teams. It makes pinning down exactly who will move and to where challenging.

To their credit, each of the insiders the Star-Ledger analyzed generally do not alter their blog posts or delete tweets that turn out to be inaccurate. They stand by what they said, for better or worse. They address readers who question their information. And they acknowledge that not everything they report is absolute truth, just what they are hearing from their sources or analyzing on the fly.

• Language is important.

Spector appears to acknowledge this and it shows in his record. Much (but not all) of his rumor analysis appears intentionally vague. The majority of it centers around whether a player will be moved or not -- nothing else.

For example, he said he felt as though new Pittsburgh Penguins forward Brendan Morrow would be traded and he was. He didn't say where. By taking out part of the equation, he's increasing his odds considerably. It may not be as tantalizing, but it works. Insiderr and Eklund, by contrast, almost always list possible destinations for players they publish rumors about. It's an obvious gamble that seems to rarely pay off, but they've got some pretty good bragging rights on the handful of occasions it does pan out.

•There were a couple of high profile blunders.

No one got Jarome Iginla's trade as a 100 percent win (Eklund gets partial credit for reporting that the Penguins were a possibility on March 25). Each, at one point, pegged Iginla to join the Bruins. It's easy to empathize here though as even the Bruins thought they had acquired the Calgary star.

On March 8, Eklund had Anaheim Ducks forward Ryan Getzlaf getting traded with the Toronto Maple Leafs as a frontrunner. Just hours later, Getzlaf signed a lucrative contract extension with the Ducks.

Insiderr decided to break from trade rumors and focus on medical rumors for a day last week. On March 30, a day after Pittsburgh Penguins star Sidney Crosby took a puck to the face in a game, Insiderr reported that Crosby (who was still in the hospital) would be back in action in time for the next game, and that he did not suffer a broken jaw. Not long thereafter, the Penguins announced Crosby had suffered a broken jaw and would be out indefinitely.

• Not much can be gleaned about insider success from team-to-team…yet.

The sample size is simply too small. While nearly 250 distinct rumors were collected, with 30 teams in play, it’s difficult to pin down where the insiders succeeded and failed at that level of specificity. However, should this project continue, it may be something that would be possible as the database grows.

The Devils

On the home front, the insiders didn't exactly have a great track record with the New Jersey Devils.

The Devils have something of a reputation on trade deadline day, in that if something happens, it's not often that anyone knows about it until the team announces it. As such, rumors about the team are often sparing and when they do come up, they rarely pan out.

The Devils did make one trade yesterday, reacquiring former draft pick Steve Sullivan from the Phoenix Coyotes for a 7th round draft pick. Only Eklund picked up on this, all the way back on March 12, when he suggested Sullivan could land with the Devils or one of three other teams. Somewhat surprising, considering Sullivan was thought to be available and Lamoriello has a penchant for reacquiring players that once played for the Devils.

Everything else ended up as a loss for the insiders.

Eklund had the Devils involved in several other rumors, acquiring one of the Canucks' goaltenders, Roberto Luongo or Cory Schneider, Jaromir Jagr or Eric Nystrom from the Dallas Stars, the Calgary Flames' Curtis Glencross or the Florida Panthers' Bryan Campbell, none of which came to pass. HockeyyInsiderr had Danny Heatley coming to the Devils from the Minnesota Wild, Drew Stafford from the Buffalo Sabres and Nystrom as well, while Spector's Hockey steered clear entirely.

Methodology

This wasn't scientific, make no mistake. This was simple data collection and analysis.

Each time one of the insiders put out a rumor, be it on their blog or Twitter, it was logged into a database. The rumors that were used were any that involved an NHL player being traded or not traded prior to the April 3 deadline. The rumors were put into the database under several categories -- insider name, rumor, date, player(s) involved in rumor, player's original team and rumored trade destination(s).

When the deadline passed, the player's actual destination was logged in a separate column, and based on that, the insider is given either a win, loss or overtime loss (a la the NHL standings system) based on the rumor's accuracy. Accurate rumors get a win, inaccurate rumors get a loss and partially accurate rumors get an overtime loss (If a rumor had a player going to one of five teams, and ended up on one of them, for example). Similar rumors (such as reporting the same rumor about a certain player day-to-day) were eliminated.

The insiders' records were then tallied and assigned points, just as they would if they were NHL teams. Since each of the insiders didn't put out the same number of rumors, a point-per rumor rating was also tallied to level the playing field.

Eklund, Spector's Hockey and HockeyyInsiderr were chosen because each is a prominent and popular producer of hockey rumors and have been for several years. Each of these people also operate independently of mainstream media and rely solely on their sources or own analysis to make the calls that they do.

This was something of a pilot project and could be expanded in the future to include mainstream media outlets who employ journalists that also write about hockey rumors.

Author's note: Day-to-day, I'm a data, weather and climatology reporter for the Star-Ledger. But since I was a child, I've been a die-hard hockey and New Jersey Devils fan. I find hockey rumors both maddening and irresistible. With this project there was no malicious intent, I simply sought to answer a question that I've long been curious about using data analysis. I'm well aware there are probably better uses of my time off, but I was curious so I decided to take a look. If you have comments or suggestions, I'm happy to jump in the comments thread to respond.

Update: Eklund responds

In the wake of the Star-Ledger's examination of NHL trade deadline rumors, one of the insiders analyzed, Eklund, reached out to address what he felt were problems with the data presented.

Eklund finished with the poorest record of the three insiders profiled (5-43-6), but he argues the data, as presented, doesn't accurately capture the essence of what he does and how he is effective.

"I hear a small percentage of the rumors that are out there," he said in a phone interview. "If you take the five percent of what I hear and the 95 percent of what I don't, even then maybe only one, two percent of those rumors are actually going to happen."

"I've been doing this for eight years. I have sources," he continued. "If I get a call from one of those sources, I write that and then I just get out of the way. People can trust me or not trust me, I understand that. But I think I've proven myself with what (trades) I've broken as someone who has inside contacts."

This much is true. Eklund has broken a number of trades during his career and has been praised by members of the mainstream hockey media for doing so. To his credit, whether he breaks it or not, Eklund does accurately report each trade that is confirmed for his readers and rarely is more than a few minutes behind any other member of the media in doing so.

This study, however, only sought to analyze how often rumors pan out. It does not address who confirmed a trade and when because this would have involved a time consuming analysis of Twitter and blog time-stamps across a vast media landscape. If this project is pursued in the future, it may be something that is added.

It is also important to reiterate that just because a rumor is reported and doesn't pan out, it does not mean such a discussion did not happen between teams regarding a player. Hockey trade negotiations are fluid, change rapidly and can fall apart or rekindle at a moments notice, as the analysis noted.

Eklund also noted that each of the three rumor producers profiled are distinct. Eklund, himself, is a veteran of the hockey rumor mill and seeks specificity in what he reports based on what his sources tell him. HockeyyInsiderr is similar, but is a relative newcomer who has garnered a strong following quickly. Spector's Hockey is more of an analyst, combing the Internet for rumors and providing his own take based on his understanding of the hockey landscape.

"For me, there's breaking stories, there's rumors, there's getting the details of a finalized trade," he said. "Those are all different aspects of my job. Spector, who I respect and get along with very well, is never going to break a trade, because that's not a part of what he does. He's a pundit, essentially, and a good one."

It was noted in the Star-Ledger study that each of the three people profiled operate in a different manner, and that Spector's success is tied directly to the vague, non-specific language he uses. Each were chosen because while they may have different approaches to rumors, they are all playing in the same playground.

In terms of rumors, and rumors alone, Spector's approach lends itself to far more accurate, if vague and less exciting, results. Eklund and HockeyyInsiderr, by contrast, report with specificity using their own sources, which lends itself to more inaccurate results overall, but more tantalizing and impressive results, when they're right.

Inherently, not every rumor Eklund, or any other insider, reports is going to pan out. His goal, in terms of rumors, appears to be to give readers a window into a dimly-lit world of backroom deals and ever changing negotiations -- which he has achieved with great success since he began HockeyBuzz nearly a decade ago.

See the Star-Ledger's full study below.

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