4. Excess winter mortality by sex and age

In England there were an estimated 21,900 excess winter deaths (EWD) in 2018 to 2019 with 46% among males (10,100 EWD) and 54% (11,800 EWD) among females. EWD are generally higher among females which may partly be explained by the higher proportion of females aged 90 years and over compared with males.

In comparison with the previous winter period, the EWM index in England has statistically significantly decreased for both sexes across all age groups. The largest percentage point differences between the winters of 2017 to 2018 and 2018 to 2019 were among those aged 90 years and over, with the females’ index decreasing from 47.0% to 19.3% and males decreasing from 40.2% to 18.1%.

The highest EWM index during 2018 to 2019 was for males and females aged 90 years and over (18.1% and 19.3% respectively) which was statistically significantly higher than all other ages. Interestingly, the EWM index for males aged 85 to 89 years was statistically significantly lower than all years since the beginning of the time series in 1991 to 1992. In contrast, the EWM index for males aged 0 to 74 years was statistically significantly higher than winters 2015 to 2016 and 2016 to 2017 but was statistically significantly lower than 2017 to 2018.

Figure 4a: Excess winter mortality index was statistically significantly lower across all age groups than last winter in England Excess winter mortality index (based on death occurrences) by age group and sex, England, between 2017 to 2018 and 2018 to 2019 Source: Office for National Statistics Notes: Figures are based on deaths occurring in each period (August through to the following July). Numbers of deaths from January to July 2019 are provisional and have been adjusted to take account of late registrations. The excess winter mortality (EWM) index is calculated as excess winter deaths (EWD) divided by the average non-winter deaths, expressed as a percentage. Figures for England exclude deaths of non-residents. Download this chart Figure 4a: Excess winter mortality index was statistically significantly lower across all age groups than last winter in England Image .csv .xls

In Wales, there were an estimated 1,400 EWD in 2018 to 2019; like England, there were more EWD among females than males.

In comparison with the previous winter period, the EWM index in Wales statistically significantly decreased for both sexes across all age ranges. Like England, the largest percentage point differences between 2017 to 2018 and 2018 to 2019 were observed in those aged 90 years and over with the female index decreasing from 52.3% to 22.1% and the male from 41.5% to 16.5%.

The highest EWM index during 2018 to 2019 was observed for females aged 90 years and over (22.1%), which was statistically significantly higher than all other ages. For males, the highest EWM index was observed in those aged 75 to 79 years (21.1%) which was statistically significantly higher than all age groups except 90 years and over. Interestingly, the EWM index for males aged 80 to 84 years was statistically significantly lower than all years since 2001 to 2002.

Figure 4b: Excess winter mortality index in Wales decreased in 2018 to 2019 for both sexes compared to last winter Excess winter mortality index (based on death occurrences) by age group and sex, between 2017 to 2018 and 2018 to 2019 Source: Office for National Statistics Notes: Figures are based on deaths occurring in each period (August through to the following July). Numbers of deaths from January to July 2019 are provisional and have been adjusted to take account of late registrations. The excess winter mortality (EWM) index is calculated as excess winter deaths (EWD) divided by the average non-winter deaths, expressed as a percentage. Provisional excess winter deaths (EWD) figures for the latest winter are rounded to the nearest 100. Where there are instances when EWD are below 100, an excess winter mortality (EWM) index is not presented. This is the case for females aged 75 to 79 years in 2018 to 2019. Figures for Wales exclude deaths of non-residents. Download this chart Figure 4b: Excess winter mortality index in Wales decreased in 2018 to 2019 for both sexes compared to last winter Image .csv .xls

The substantial reductions observed in both England and Wales since the previous winter shows the fluctuations in EWM. The recent decreases are likely related to the milder weather experienced in the winter months compared with the previous winter and the lower impact of influenza on the elderly in 2018 to 2019, and supports improvement in the efficacy of influenza vaccines (Public Health England, 2019) (PDF, 2.14MB).