Welcome to our Election Update for Sunday, Oct. 28! As of 10:30 a.m., the Classic version of the FiveThirtyEight House forecast gave Democrats a 6 in 7 chance (85 percent) of taking control. The Lite version gave them a 7 in 9 chance (77 percent), and the Deluxe version gave them a 5 in 6 chance (82 percent). Those are consistent with the numbers we’ve seen all week.

Going down the list of seats that might flip, you might notice some familiar names. Just in time for Halloween, several districts that hosted competitive special elections within the last 18 months have come back from the dead. And the similarities are eerie: Based on the Classic version of our House forecast, the expected vote margins in these districts are looking really close to the actual margins of victory from the special elections. In two of the districts, even the same candidates are running.

We’re having déjà vu … Districts that hosted special elections in 2017-18 that are competitive again, based on the Classic version of the FiveThirtyEight forecast* Margin District Special Election Forecast Forecast GOP Chance of Winning Arizona 8th R+5 R+5 77.0% Georgia 6th R+4 R+4 74.1 Montana at large R+6 R+4 72.5 Ohio 12th R+1 R+2 64.2 * As of 10:30 a.m. on Oct. 28 Source: Secretaries of state

This week, we got new polls in three of these contests confirming that they are once again very much in play.

What can we take away from the fact that these districts (plus the Arizona 8th, which wasn’t polled this week but did host a special election earlier this year) are competitive again? Well, obviously, it’s a good sign for Democrats. As you might remember, 2017-18’s special elections took place in strongly red districts and states that typically aren’t close, but Democrats made them competitive anyway; Democrats outperformed the FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of their constituencies by 16 points, on average. If Democrats can match that in November, they’re very likely to win the House.

But it isn’t automatic: There are a few districts we didn’t mention that also held special elections last year, like the Kansas 4th and South Carolina 5th. Despite Democrats coming within a few points of winning both in 2017, both are currently safe for the GOP, according to our model. And of course, even if Democrats match their special-election performances in the districts above, it won’t matter — this time, they need to actually win. Luckily for them, there are enough districts less red than these for them to win the House anyway. But a truly gangbusters performance for the party probably needs to involve picking off a few of these “Lean Republican” seats.