If the political obsessives who hang out at the popular progressive online community Daily Kos get to decide who the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee is, then Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren will be smiling and batting away confetti on the convention stage in Milwaukee next summer.

But the broader Democratic constituency still has pangs for a candidate who isn’t even a Democrat, independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, as well as for the tried-and-true Democratic warrior Joe Biden.

Back in April, a Daily Kos straw poll showed a dominate Sanders reel in 40 percent support in the crowded primary field. Warren landed in third place with 12 percent. Five months later, it’s a very different story. The latest Daily Kos online poll has Warren at 39 percent and Sanders at 17 percent, with former Vice President Biden next at 11 percent.

Month by month the online poll has shown Warren advance while Sanders, the progressives’ darling during the 2016 Democratic primaries, fall back. It’s now reached the point, Daily Kos wrote, that the straw poll shows “the beginnings of a consolidation around Warren.”

This is very good news for the former law professor from Massachusetts. But will the love of Daily Kos progressives be enough?

Probably not. The Democratic Party is still a big tent. A lot of its voters view both Warren and Sanders, with their calls for Medicare-for-all, new taxes on high earners and an economy transformed for climate change, as too far left.

The latest data from pollster Morning Consult shows that Biden, the best-known centrist in the race, continues to hold a significant lead in early primary states. He’s pulling in a combined 32 percent support in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

Sanders comes in second in the Morning Consult early-primary survey, with 21 percent. Warren stands at 17 percent. No other candidate reaches double figures.

Morning Consult’s national numbers are almost exactly the same as those for the early-primary states. Biden, who seeks to shore up Obamacare and add a public option to it rather than create a Medicare-for-all system, is at 32 percent nationally. Sanders scored 20 percent and Warren 16 percent.

With Iowa’s February kickoff caucus coming into view on the calendar, Democratic candidates lagging in the polls are seeing fundraising dry up -- and some are beginning to drop out of the race. There’s still time for a breakthrough from California Sen. Kamala Harris (8 percent Morning Consult national poll) or South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg (5 percent), and maybe even from former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke (3 percent) or businessman Andrew Yang (1 percent). But the door is closing fast. As we head into the fall, with the next televised debate on Sept. 12, it’s increasingly looking like a three-person race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

-- Douglas Perry

@douglasmperry

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