Coronavirus in Sweden: What the data shows about the hands-off and deeply divisive approach to the Covid-19 outbreak Swedes are taking the directive to stay at home without strict government intervention

As the world grapples with the coronavirus outbreak, politicians and the public are taking a vested interest in how outliers like Sweden are dealing with the pandemic.

The country, which is usually hailed as a role model for its policy, has opted for a hands-off approach in regulating the coronavirus outbreak.

Swedes are taking the directive to stay at home without strict government intervention, and have been ordered to self-regulate and follow social distancing rules, without closing businesses or schools.

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The move has divided critics. Anti-isolaters are heralding Sweden’s approach as a victory for common sense, with some right-wingers praising the country’s preservation of its economy amid the coronavirus outbreak. But the usual plaudits from the left have fallen into silence, with concerned citizens believing the approach is leading the country into catastrophe. In reality, the data shows that Sweden’s approach is more complex than the hot takes suggest.

Work life balance, collective responsibility

Everyone in Sweden is urged to stay at home if they are at all sick, practice social distancing, avoid non-essential travel within the country, work from home if possible, follow good hygiene practices, and avoid non-essential visits to elderly people or hospitals. However, has not been legally enforced – which as previously discussed, relies on the country’s high level of trust in its health service and policymakers.

Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Report, which tracks movements across the Sweden’s 21 counties, gives us an idea of whether Swedes are complying with the rules.

First off, the data shows a negligible difference in the number of people working from home in comparison to usual across the 21 counties.

However, as more than two thirds of Swedes already work online from home at least some of the time, with around a third doing this on a daily or weekly basis, according to The Swedish Internet Foundation, a large number of its workforce will already work at home In Stockholm, the largest county in the country, retail activity has dropped by -42 per cent, while in Västra Götaland, the second largest county, it has dropped by -45 per cent, and by a third in the third-largest, Skåne. The data suggests a swell of activity at local parks, with an average of 84 per cent more people across the country venturing to green areas than usual. In the third largest country, Skåne, Swedes are roaming around parks 98 per cent more than usual, suggesting a large migration of activity to the greener areas that have been mandated for activity. However, it is hard to track whether Swedes are following social distancing rules in these areas, as well as the length of stay in the parks. Some data is missing. While Sweden accounts for the three largest counties, which are at least triple the size of the other sparsely populated counties, it does not account for 12 out of 21 counties, which have not provided enough data for analysis.

Neighbouring nations

Looking at Sweden’s neighbours, which share a similar social structure and population density, the nation’s approach looks starker.

Health data from the IHME predicts 285 people will have died in Finland by 4 August, 356 people will have died in Noway, 806 will have died in Denmark, and 10,854 will have died in Sweden.

According to the data, Finland has restricted mass gatherings, and shut down businesses, schools, universities and non-essential services, but it hasn’t implemented a stay at home order or limited travel. In Sweden, only mass gatherings with more than 50 people have been shut down.

Comparing the two countries does have its limitations. Finland has a population of 5.5m people; Sweden’s 10.23m is nearly double, and its neighbour is arguably more isolated than Sweden, which borders three other countries. It also does not account for Sweden’s herd immunity theory paying off later on, which could protect the country when the virus is projected to resurface. But as the statistics show, fatalities would have to skyrocket by 4139 per cent in Finland to match the country’s death rate.

Compared to the rest of Europe, however, Sweden is faring much better. Looking at the number of deaths alone, the UK must contend with a projected 31,929 deaths by 4 August, Italy expects 26,867, Spain is predicted to hit 25,104. Apart from in Germany, which has a low figure of 6,124 deaths by August 4, Sweden is faring significantly better than the rest of Europe.

What does it mean?

Sweden is not doing brilliantly or terribly compared to other countries.

In comparison to its neighbours, which share the most similarities in social policy, geography and population in Sweden, the country looks like it is faring badly. As of 23 April, 2021 people have lost their lives to coronavirus in Sweden.

But on a global stage, Sweden’s outlandish tactics appear to have paid off as Swedes adhere to government guidelines without the police using intimidating tactics to maintain the peace.

Outside of the figures, the devastating impact of the deaths is too complex to analyse, with the longevity of the formula, the comparatively higher death rates in care homes and the frustrations of the country’s wider scientific community all hanging in the balance.