Conservative governments have long relied on the notion that they are better at handling budgets, the economy and national security. But Tony Abbott has so thoroughly trashed our trust in him that he can no longer draw on this old belief, writes Tim Dunlop.

Back in 2004, then prime minister John Howard announced the upcoming election with these immortal words:

This election, ladies and gentlemen, will be about trust. Who do you trust to keep the economy strong and protect family living standards? Who do you trust to keep interest rates low? Who do you trust to lead the fight on Australia's behalf against international terrorism? Who do you trust to keep the budget strong so that we can afford to spend more on health and education? The election will be about the future of this nation over the next 10 years.

Kind of makes you nostalgic, doesn't it? (If you are a Coalition voter, it probably breaks your heart.)

The point is, it stands in contrast to the situation the current Prime Minister finds himself in and helps illustrate why Tony Abbott is absolutely on course to be a one-term prime minister.

Remember, it wasn't as if John Howard was actually trustworthy. You will recall that members of his own party had described his government as "mean and tricky".

And there was the whole thing of Australia's involvement in the invasion of Iraq and the discredited claims by Mr Howard and others about Saddam's weapons of mass destruction.

Not to mention the children-not-overboard affair and his "non-core promises" debacle.

Nonetheless, Mr Howard's appeal to trust resonated. The genius of his words were that they framed the election around what were perceived as incontestable strengths of Mr Howard himself and of his party and of conservative governments more generally.

Put Howard's words into Abbott's mouth and the effect is comical.

"This election is about trust."

It is hard to think of a prime minister ever who has so completely abused the electorate's trust as the man who currently occupies the office.

His entire pitch to we-the-people was based on an appeal to trust and integrity, and a commitment to do what he promised to do, and he has utterly failed to deliver.

"Who do you trust to keep the economy strong and protect family living standards?"

Again, put those words in Mr Abbott's mouth and you want to laugh.

The economy used to be the effortless trump card of conservative governments, but Mr Abbott - and Mr Hockey - have trashed that advantage.

They came to power bleating about a "budget emergency" that never really existed and have since delivered a worsening economy.

As economist Stephen Koukoulas noted the other day, wages growth is at a 50-year low; unemployment is at the 13-year high; and business investment is down 11 per cent since Mr Abbott declared Australia "open for business".

Their first budget was widely seen as unfair and since then they have not only failed to get budget measures through the Parliament (in a less hostile environment to the one in which Julia Gillard operated), they have failed to paint a convincing picture of how they will proceed.

Mr Hockey's attempt this week to put tax reform on the agenda, for instance, was widely mocked, with Alan Kohler calling it "truly awful" and Peter Martin noting that we can't afford the tax cuts Mr Hockey was flagging.

Their attempt to craft a climate policy was described by Laura Tingle in the AFR as "policy rubbish".

On a straight, one-to-one comparison with Labor, then, Labor look to be superior economic managers, having successfully steered the country through the global financial crisis (GFC) while delivering better outcomes - and off a lower tax take - than Messrs Hockey and Abbott have managed post-GFC.

With world stock markets again turbulent, do you really trust the Abbott Government to deliver good economic management?

Only the most rusted-on supporter could answer yes.

"Who do you trust to lead the fight on Australia's behalf against international terrorism?" Mr Howard asked, tapping into an issue that is always a strong suit for a conservative government, a political strength built on an underlying trust.

Mr Howard eventually lost that trust, but for most of his period in power he was seen as a "safe pair of hands" at a time when the threat of international terrorism was more acute than it is now.

Mr Abbott has again and again turned to national security in order to bolster his political standing, but it simply doesn't ring true.

Sure, people still consider it a serious issue, but Abbott lacks Howard's gravitas, while his propensity to dress up his press conferences with ever-increasing numbers of national flags merely underlines the fact that he is engaged in a form of theatre.

The very nature of national security means that leaders often can't share specific information with voters, and so trust becomes vital. Mr Abbott lacks the credibility necessary to invoke that trust.

"The election will be about the future of this nation over the next 10 years."

When Howard said that in 2004, people had reason to believe that, not only was he looking that far ahead, but that he had some idea of what he was trying to achieve.

Mr Abbott can make no such claim. The entire period of his Government has seen him stumble from one short-term mess to the next, beginning in earnest with their badly received first budget.

In that time, there has been a major challenge to Mr Abbott's leadership, and according to his sieve-like Cabinet, he is on notice again pending the outcome of the Canning by-election in Western Australia. This after he had already been given a "six month" warning.

In other words, the next election is not about the future of the nation over the next 10 years - as it should be - but about the future of the Prime Minister over the next 10 months. Or 10 days. Or 10 minutes.

This is a Government that has ceased to function as anything other than a stop gap and the Coalition "brand" is lying in the dirt.

Sections of the right-wing media might still be in denial about this, but no one else is, not even the business community that is off organising its own policy summit with the ACTU and the Australian Council of Social Services.

For heaven's sake, how much stronger an indication of a lack of faith in Mr Abbott and Co. do you want?

The received wisdom in Australian political circles is that federal governments do not lose after one term. True enough.

But let us remember that Howard himself went close. Julia Gillard went even closer. We have also seen recent first-term state governments lose in Victoria and Queensland. And in Queensland, that one-term government was carrying the biggest majority in the state's history.

And don't forget that Howard as prime minister lost his own seat at the election in 2007, another one of those things that is never meant to happen in Australian politics.

Does anyone think Mr Abbott is less vulnerable?

It isn't just that Mr Abbott himself is seen as unpopular and incompetent. It is that he has brought the entire notion of his Government's ability to manage the economy into disrepute, while destroying the underlying trust necessary to garner support around issues of national security.

"This election is about trust."

Yep, they always are, and that's why Mr Abbott and the Government he leads are in such trouble.

Tim Dunlop is the author of The New Front Page: New Media and the Rise of the Audience. He writes regularly for The Drum and a number of other publications. You can follow him on Twitter.