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A popular explanation — that the United States offers equality of opportunity, so there’s less need to worry about inequality of outcomes — doesn’t fit the data. In point of fact, the rate of social mobility in the U.S. is among the lowest among developed countries. Starting points matter in the U.S. more than one would expect from a country that gave rise to the American Dream. A child born to a low-income family in the U.S. has a much smaller chance of moving up the social ladder than does a child born to a low-income family in most other OECD countries, Canada included.

The GOP tax plan is a caricature of what you would expect from a plutocracy

Another class of explanations, as exemplified by Thomas Franks’ “What’s the Matter with Kansas?” is based on the proposition that socially conservative Americans aren’t very smart. Time and again, Republicans campaign on themes designed to appeal to social conservatives, only to focus on regressive tax policies once in power. Low- and middle-income social conservatives end up being worse off economically, but continue to vote Republican anyway.

This is a seductive thesis, and may even be correct. But as an economist, I’m reluctant to put much weight on the idea that people make the same, predictable mistake over and over again. Among other things, this line of reasoning quickly leads to the unpalatable conclusion that some people shouldn’t be allowed to vote in the first place.

Alberto Alesina, Edward Glaeser and Bruce Sacerdote asked, “Why doesn’t the U.S. have a European-style welfare system?” in a 2001 National Bureau of Economic Research working paper. There are many possible answers. For example, if market incomes in Europe were much more unequally distributed than in the U.S., then there would be a greater need for redistributive policies in Europe. This isn’t the case, of course, and it turns out that many of the obvious answers — including, as we have seen, differences in social mobility — aren’t consistent with the data. The one factor that does seem to matter is race.