Welcome to TRF’s Week 13 Edition of Playoff Pontificator. For this go around we will look at all six possible outcomes for the Oakland Raiders, ranging from 9-7 to 14-2.

We will concentrate on breaking down the various pathways to an Oakland Raider divisional crown. Doing so will also give us insight into how likely it will be for the team to earn a bye or secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The point regarding the bye is worth noting since the winners of the AFC West and AFC East currently have at least a 96% chance of securing a highly coveted week off in early January.

Ok it’s time to roll up our “e-sleeves” and get knee-deep into where the situation stands for the 9-2 Raiders as we swing into Week 13….

First, we will tackle the 2 most unlikely (yet still possible) scenarios. The win ‘em all and lose ‘em all outcomes. While we all would love to see a 14-2 finish, actually achieving such a record would not be easy (even for those with the word ‘Homer’ in their handle). On the opposite end of the spectrum, it is fair to say that a 9-7 finish would appear to be an even more unlikely end result. Still, primarily for academic purposes, we will include these two outcomes as part of our statistical analyses.

14-2

At 14-2, the Raiders would beat everyone (vs. Buff; @KC; @SD; vs. Indy; @Den). Obviously, the odds that Oakland wins the Division in this case would be 100%. The team would also be assured of receiving the #1 Seed—thanks to the NFL’s common game tiebreaker. Under this scenario, Oakland would be 5-0, one better than New England’s 4-1 record (Bills). Even if NE were to go 14-2, the road to Houston would still go through Oakland. (Take a moment to let that satisfying sentence fully sink into your Silver and Black brain.)

9-7

Under the “harrowing, alternate universe scenario” associated with a 9-7 record, the team would obviously not win another game. I realize that some of you may be gritting your teeth just thinking about this but don’t worry, I’ll be sure to move along as quickly as possible. This won’t be hard to do since the math is painfully simple. At 9-7 we have a 0% chance of winning the AFCW (or getting a bye, obviously). Speaking of bye, you may be wondering if a 9-7 record would send us home altogether. Well, more than likely, yes. However, the unpolished, slightly greenish silver lining in all this is that the odds are not quite 0%. At 9-7, the Raiders would still have a 9% shot at making the dance as a Wild Card, despite executing a faceplant to end all faceplants.

10-6

Going 10-6 is obviously better than 9-7. The biggest impact of that one extra win would be a significant increase in the likelihood of making the playoffs, which would now range between 63% (beating Indy) and 81% (defeating the Broncos). Still, even if 10 wins managed to get the Raiders into the post season, this still would be a team looking for answers. While this record may get the Raiders into the dance, it’s highly unlikely that 10 wins would be enough to capture the Division. The odds of winning the AFCW would range between a <1% (beating Indy) to 17% (winning on the road in KC). The only non-zero shot at getting a bye would be if Oakland wins in KC on Thursday Night Football (8%). There is essentially no shot at locking up home field advantage (Seed 1) at 10-6.

13-3

At 13-3 most Raider fans would be quite content (yours truly included). As you likely noted by now, we are not going in numeric order. I listed 13-3 at this point since it the possibilities associated with this record are relatively easy to calculate since we would only lose one of the remaining five games. At 13-3, the odds of taking the AFCW (and getting a 1st round bye) would be 100% in all cases except under the condition of a KC loss. Even in that case, the Raiders chances of winning the AFCW (and getting a 1st round bye) would still be 92%. As for home field advantage, Oakland’s chances would range between 82-89% with the lowest possibility resulting from a loss to KC.

11-5

Ok, now we are getting into the outcomes that have “more degrees of freedom”. Or put simply, more stuff can happen here. At 11-5, few fans are going to be thrilled watching the team go 2-3 down the stretch, but with 3 tough division road games on the docket this outcome is not pure fantasy, unfortunately. Below, I list the likelihoods a little differently given the complexity/range of possibilities associated with an 11-5 record. These results make it quite evident that beating the Chiefs is by far the biggest single outcome that would help the Raiders. I’ve ranked the outcomes below in order of ‘bye likelihood’. Also, while not explicitly shown, it should be noted that in all scenarios the Raiders make the playoffs at 11-5.

Beat the Chiefs and Broncos: 74% bye/win division; 10% Seed 1

Beat the Chiefs and Chargers: 61% bye/win division; 9% Seed 1

Beat the Chiefs and Colts: 55% bye/win division; 7% Seed

Beat the Chiefs and Bills : 45% bye/win division; 9% Seed 1

Beat the Broncos and Colts: 27% bye/win division; 4% Seed 1

Beat the Broncos and Bills: 26% bye/win division; 4% Seed 1

Beat the Chargers and Broncos: 24% bye/win division; 5% Seed 1

Beat the Chargers and Colts: 18% bye/win division; 3% Seed 1

Beat the Chargers and Bills: 14% bye/win division; 2% Seed 1

Beat the Bills and Colts: 14% bye/win division; 2% Seed 1

12-4

Last, but by no means least, we now take a look at what could happen if the Raiders ended up going 12-4. Similar to the 11-5 final record, there are several ways the Raiders can get to 12-4. As you can see below, the best-case scenario would be to sweep the remaining Division games. Here’s a closer look at the possibilities.

Beat the Chiefs, Broncos and Chargers: 99% bye/win division; 53% Seed 1

Beat the Chiefs, Broncos and Bills: 93% bye/win division; 49% Seed 1

Beat the Chiefs, Chargers and Bills: 93% bye/win division; 49% Seed 1

Beat the Chiefs, Broncos and Colts: 93% bye/win division; 47% Seed 1

Beat the Chiefs, Chargers and Colts: 93% bye/win division; 47% Seed 1

Beat the Bills, Chiefs and Colts: 88% bye/win division; 46% Seed 1

Beat the Bills, Broncos and Colts: 64% bye/win division; 34% Seed 1

Beat the Broncos, Chargers and Colts: 64% bye/win division; 33% Seed 1

Beat the Broncos, Chargers and Bills: 64% bye/win division; 32% Seed 1

Beat the Bills, Chargers and Colts: 60% bye/win division; 31% Seed 1

So there you have it. Where do you think we will end up? Obviously no one (without a time machine) knows. That said, if I had to guess, I think the most likely outcome would be a 12-4 finish. If one of these three wins occurs in KC, Oakland is highly likely to take the AFCW crown and receive a week of rest before the real tournament begins at 12-4. As for the securing number 1 Seed, that would be a toss up even with a win at KC. If the path to SB LI ends up going through Foxboro, so be it. I for one would love to see a SnowBowl rematch 15 years later. It would be a spectacular chapter to add to an already remarkable season. However this time, we would have to ensure a much more palatable ending… 😉

Written by: tuckrulefool