Block I has traditionally belonged to BSP, Block II to BJP and Block III to SP. While this looks pretty simple, it gets complicated because of overlapping vote banks – (i) upper caste and dalits in case of BSP and BJP, (ii) Rajputs and OBCs in case of BJP and SP, and (iii) Muslims in case of SP, BSP as well as Congress.

Caste blocks and their dynamics

Block I, comprising Brahmins, dalits and Muslims (49 percent of population), was the traditional vote bank of Congress until late 1980s, with an upper caste chief minister at the helm. This model was replicated by Mayawati in 2007, only difference being, a dalit replaced upper caste as CM. BSP has historically ended up with 25-27 percent of vote share due to this block with 2014 being an exception when it received only 19.8 per cent of the vote share. Within this group, more than 70 percent Jatavs have voted for Mayawati, who belongs to this community. More than 50 percent of other SC/ST have historically voted for BSP except for Lok Sabha polls where BJP made a significant dent bagging 45 percent votes.

Block II, comprising of upper caste, Jats, OBCs and other SC (60 percent of population), was developed by BJP in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. It was able to make a dent in the OBC vote bank of SP and dalit vote bank of BSP to create this social coalition, helped by the fact that Narendra Modi is an OBC himself. BJP has historically got 15 per cent vote share in last three assembly polls, but this dramatically improved in Lok Sabha polls. On an average more than 50 percent of Brahmins and Rajputs have voted for the BJP in the past elections. It overtook SP as the first choice of OBCs in 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

Block III, comprising Rajputs, Yadavs, OBCs and Muslims, accounts for 68 percent of population. This group has traditionally supported SP. BJP over the years has been able to break into the OBC vote bank of SP, which was able to wean away a section of Rajputs from BJP. It has historically received 20-22 percent vote share from this block. On an average more than 60 percent Yadavs have voted for SP in the past elections. In any elections SP has received maximum Muslim support.

BJP gave new meaning to caste blocks in 2014 Lok Sabha elections

BJP had received majority of votes across caste groups except for Yadavs and Jatavs in May 2014, bagging 42.6 percent vote share. If it is able to maintain the same performance then it will be a clear winner. However, even hardcore BJP supporters know that the performance can’t be repeated as the Modi factor has been absent in successive state polls and local issues have dominated.