The back-to-back news conferences from Washington’s two most powerful economic voices presented a study in contrasts. Taken together, they described a healthy economic expansion further stoked by Trump-era stimulus that could be diverted by Trump-driven uncertainty.

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Powell — measured to the point of hedging on several key fronts, businesslike and brief in his answers — pointed to a fundamentally strong economy as justifying the central bank’s decision to hike interest rates by a quarter-point for the third time this year while penciling in a fourth for December. Yet he warned of a “rising chorus of concerns from businesses all over the country about disruption of supply chains, materials cost increases,” from the administration’s trade confrontations.

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“If this, perhaps inadvertently, goes to a place where we have widespread tariffs that remain in place for a long time, a more protectionist world, that's going to be bad for the United States economy,” Powell said. (Watch the whole news conference here.)

Later, Trump — blustery, boastful and at times rambling over the course of 81 minutes before the White House press corps — sent a clear message he is in no hurry to wind down trade fights with China and Canada. (See it here.)

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The president said he rejected the opportunity to have a one-on-one meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. (Trudeau spokeswoman Eleanore Catenaro denied that the Canadians had sought a meeting with Trump, CNBC reports.)

“Because his tariffs are too high,” Trump said. “He doesn't seem to want to move, and I've told him forget about it.”

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With that, he signaled that negotiators will likely blow through a self-imposed Sunday deadline to work through several sticky issues remaining between his administration and Ottawa on a revised North American Free Trade Agreement.

The president said he is weighing whether to slap tariffs on auto imports from Canada and slammed the Canadian trade team. “That’s the mother lode. That’s the big one. We’re very unhappy with the negotiations and the negotiating style of Canada,” he said. “We’re not getting along at all with their negotiators.”

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On China, Trump pointed to tariffs his administration has imposed on $250 billion of imports from the country, “and they’re paying 25 percent on that. They're paying billions and billions.” In fact, American importers of Chinese goods pay those duties, frequently passing them along to their customers in the form of higher prices. And while the Trump administration is assessing a 25 percent levy on $50 billion of Chinese goods, it is so far collecting 10 percent on an additional $200 billion of imports from duties it started enforcing Monday. (That rate is scheduled to climb to 25 percent at the start of next year.)

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“This has never happened to China, and I like China, and I like President Xi [Jinping] a lot. I think he's a friend of mine. He may not be a friend of mine anymore,” Trump said, pointing to a commentator who he said argued that “China has total respect for Donald Trump and for Donald Trump's very, very large brain.”

The president also accused China of interfering in the 2018 election, citing in part a four-page advertorial Beijing sponsored over the weekend in the Des Moines Register that highlighted how the trade war is pinching American farmers. He claimed inaccurately that soybean prices have risen. From my colleague Heather Long:

Trump said he has more evidence of Chinese electoral interference. “It’ll come out,” he said. “It didn’t come out of nowhere, that I can tell you.”

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And he said the Chinese stock market has taken a 30 percent-plus pummeling over the last several months, a claim the Toronto Star’s Daniel Dale fact-checked:

Powell delivered an economic report card that would mostly please the president. “Our economy is strong. Growth is running at a healthy clip. Unemployment is low. The number of people working is rising steadily, and wages are up. Inflation is low and stable. All of these are very good signs,” he said, crediting Trump’s tax cut with providing some extra oomph. He also warned that, while there’s no evidence for it yet in macroeconomic data, an escalating trade war could put a crimp on that momentum. “It’s a risk,” Powell said. “The tariffs might provide a basis for companies to raise prices in a world they’ve been very reluctant and unable to raise prices.”

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Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist for Capital Economics, said Powell calibrated that message. “As a character, at least compared to recent Fed chairs, he’s very politically savvy, so he’s very careful about what he’s saying,” he said.

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On Wednesday, that meant leaning more on the available data about the trade war’s impact so far and less on his own extrapolations about where it could be headed. “It sounds like the Fed is going to be very data-dependent on this,” says Alicia Levine, chief market strategist at BNY Mellon Investment Management. “I think to this point, there’s very little macroeconomic impact, which is why the U.S. markets remain strong while the rest of the world is kind of weak.”

That could change, Levine said, if in a worst-case scenario an extended row sets off shocks in Asia that ricochet through emerging markets.

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JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon pointed to another indirect threat this week: The possibility that uncertainty depresses business investment. “If people start reducing investment, if people start moving their supply chains around, that we have seen already moves the markets a little bit,” he said in an interview with CNBC.

Already, the Associated Press reports, a growing number of iconic brands, including Ford, Walmart and Procter & Gamble, are warning that tariffs are raising their costs and prices. Ford CEO Jim Hackett said Wednesday that Trump's metals tariffs are costing the company $1 billion and threatening to jack up prices across the industry.

But Powell also emphasized that trade policy is outside his brief — and made clear his intention to focus on what's in it, even in the face of criticisms from Trump. “We've been given a really important job to do on behalf of the American people by Congress, and we've been given the tools to do it," Powell said in response to a question about what he makes of the barbs from the White House. “My colleagues and I are focused exclusively on carrying out that mission.”

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True to form, Trump didn’t match Powell’s restraint. “I am not happy” about the rate hike, Trump said in his press conference. “I'd rather pay down debt or do other things, create more jobs. So I'm worried about the fact that they seem to like raising interest rates. We can do other things with the money.”

TRUMP TRACKER

TRADE FLY-AROUND:

— The U.S. and Japan to open direct trade talks. The Washington Post's David J. Lynch: “Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed Wednesday to begin direct trade negotiations, in a move that could reshape two of the world’s largest auto industries and offer American farmers better access to Japanese consumers. ... Negotiations will begin soon on a deal that would fall short of the comprehensive free-trade agreement that Trump had initially promised, governing goods trade and some services transactions, according to a joint statement by the two governments... The United States said it agreed to ‘refrain from taking measures against the spirit’ of the joint statement, an indication that Trump will hold off on imposing auto tariffs until the talks run their course.”

— China announces tariff reductions. The Associated Press's Joe McDonald: “China announced more tariff cuts Wednesday on imports of construction machinery and other goods, but took no action to address the U.S. complaints about its technology policy that are fueling an escalating trade battle. The move reflects the Chinese government’s desire to stick to plans to make the economy more competitive and its intention to press on with state-led development of industry. It gave no indication the reductions would apply to U.S. goods, on which Beijing has imposed additional taxes of 5 to 25 percent. The tariff cut, effective Nov. 1, applies to 1,585 types of goods including construction equipment, industrial machinery, paper products and building materials. It is the second reduction in less than a year following a cut last November for food and consumer goods.”

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How China seizes foreign technology. The Wall Street Journal's Lingling Wei and Bob Davis: “Beijing leans on an array of levers to pry technology from American companies — sometimes coercively so, say businesses and the U.S. government. Interviews with dozens of corporate and government officials on both sides of the Pacific, and a review of regulatory and other documents, reveal how systemic and methodical Beijing’s extraction of technology has become — and how unfair Chinese officials consider the complaints.

"China’s tactics, these interviews and documents show, include pressuring U.S. partners in joint ventures to relinquish technology, using local courts to invalidate American firms’ patents and licensing arrangements, dispatching antitrust and other investigators, and filling regulatory panels with experts who may pass trade secrets to Chinese competitors . . . U.S. companies have long complained that Beijing pressures them to hand over intellectual property. More recently, their concerns have escalated as China turns into an advanced rival in industries ranging from chemicals to computer chips to electric vehicles.”

The dispute is about more than trade. WSJ's Greg Ip: “A decade ago, the growing mutual dependence of the U.S. and Chinese economies earned them the nickname ‘Chimerica.” Now, as both dig in on their trade dispute, some see an economic cold war looming in which the U.S. and China seek to lead competing economic blocs. ‘Neither China nor America wants to be part of Chimerica anymore,’ says Brad Setser, a China expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. ‘The Chinese don’t want the technological dependence, and the U.S. doesn’t want the persistent trade deficits.’ . . . The situation has no precedent in post-war history.”

— U.S. farmers suffer despite payments. WSJ's Jesse Newman: “The Trump administration has started compensating U.S. farmers for damage tariffs are doing to their business. Many farmers say the payments won’t make up for lost sales to China and other foreign markets they were counting on to buy the huge amounts of crops and meat being produced across the Farm Belt... U.S. farm income is expected to drop 13% this year to $66 billion, according to the Department of Agriculture, extending a yearslong slump in the agricultural economy. . . . The USDA said it has paid $35 million to farmers so far, especially in Iowa, Kansas, Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin. Nearly 49,000 farmers have applied for the aid.”

— U.S. to move on without Canada. Bloomberg News's Jenny Leonard and Eric Martin: “The Trump administration will publish the text for its bilateral trade deal with Mexico on Friday, which will likely exclude Canada but leave open the possibility for the country to join the agreement later . . . Under U.S. trade law, the text of the pact has to be published 60 days before it’s signed. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said Tuesday that the U.S. is moving forward with the pact by Sunday so current Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto can sign it before leaving office on Dec. 1... Lighthizer said on Tuesday that trade talks with Canada will continue even after the Sunday deadline. The U.S. and Canada may even carve out a separate deal, he said.”

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Trudeau says he's in no rush. Reuters's David Lawder: “Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Wednesday shrugged off U.S. pressure to quickly agree to a deal on NAFTA and indicated it was possible the three member nations might fail to conclude a new pact . . . ‘We will keep working as long as it takes to get to the right deal for Canada,’ Trudeau told reporters at the United Nations. He has repeatedly said he is ready to walk away from the talks rather than sign a document he thinks is bad... Speaking separately, Canada’s ambassador to Washington said that on a scale of 1 to 10, the chances of an agreement by the Sept 30 deadline were 5.”

— World trade court near collapse. Reuters's Tom Miles: “The supreme court of world trade is close to breakdown after the United States turned down a last-ditch petition to reappoint one of the four remaining judges at the World Trade Organization. . . . The WTO normally has seven judges but after a U.S. campaign to block appointments and reappointments only four remained. Wednesday’s meeting of the WTO’s dispute settlement body was the last chance of reprieve for Shree Baboo Chekitan Servansing, a trade judge from Mauritius, before his term expires on Sept. 30.”

MELTDOWN WATCH:

MARKET MOVERS

— Returns disappoint. Bloomberg News's Sid Verma and Luke Kawa: “Even as U.S. stocks flirt with records, investors are staring at a cross-asset landscape that hasn’t been painted with this much red since the depths of the financial crisis. The dollar’s upswing, brewing price pressures and cracks in the synchronized growth story have pushed asset returns into negative territory across much of the world. This year is on track to deliver the lowest share of positive returns adjusted for inflation across 17 major asset classes since 2008, according to Morgan Stanley. Real yields are on the verge of breaking into a higher post-crisis range, threatening more damage to besieged portfolios.”

Global stocks moved lower as investors digested the Fed's moves. WSJ's Georgi Kantchev: "The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.2% in midmorning trade, dragged down by Italian and Spanish stocks. Asian markets mostly fell. On Wall Street, futures pointed to a broadly flat opening for the S&P 500. The index fell on Wednesday for the fourth straight session."

Companies expect lower profits. CNBC's Jeff Cox: “After consecutive quarters of near-record profit growth, companies are starting to lower expectations. With third-quarter earnings right around the corner, S&P 500 companies are cutting their outlooks at levels not seen since the first quarter of 2016, when corporate America was in a profits recession. In all, 98 companies have offered guidance — 74 have provided a negative outlook, meaning they expect earnings to come in below Wall Street estimates, while just 24 have been positive.”

— New home sales bounce back. Reuters's Lucia Mutikani: “Sales of new U.S. single-family homes rebounded in August after two straight monthly declines, but the underlying trend still pointed to a weakening housing market against the backdrop of rising mortgage rates and higher home prices. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday new home sales rebounded 3.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 629,000 units last month. July’s sales pace was revised down to 608,000 units from the previously reported 627,000 units. ... ‘Despite the August increase, sales are still on a downward trend after peaking in November of last year,’ said Andres Carbacho-Burgos, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.”

POCKET CHANGE

— Study: Big companies drive wages down. WSJ's Sharon Nunn: “Large corporations like Amazon.com demand low prices from suppliers. That holds down consumer costs, but may also crimp worker pay. Average hourly wage growth has ticked up in recent months, but still remains well below levels seen before the recession and in earlier decades. Some of that decline results from the growing market power of large retailers — big businesses that are able to demand low prices from manufacturers and shippers, according to a recent report in the American Sociological Review. ‘These businesses are able to impose downward pressure on prices from their suppliers, which often comes out of [the supplier’s] costs, often labor costs,’ said Nathan Wilmers, the report’s author.

"As large firms like Walmart, Target and Amazon command increasing market share in the retail industry, they narrow the field of buyers for companies that make and move consumer products. The suppliers may not find other businesses that can purchase their goods or services in such volume.” (Amazon.com founder and chief executive Jeffrey P. Bezos owns The Post.)

— Blankfein leaves $40 million on the table. Bloomberg's Stephen Gandel: "Lloyd Blankfein, who is exiting the CEO suite at Goldman Sachs this week, once called the performance targets in his compensation agreements 'hardly aspirational.' It turns out they were tougher than he thought. When Blankfein departs, he will miss out on at least $40 million, and possibly much more, in deferred compensation, the majority in cash, because he did not achieve those targets, underscoring the bank’s recent struggles and how badly he misjudged opportunities for the firm. Most of the lost potential pay dates to 2011, when Goldman put in place what became a rolling eight-year incentive plan."

— Cadillac relocates to Detroit. WSJ's Mike Colias: “General Motors Co. is moving its Cadillac headquarters back to Detroit, nearly four years after relocating the luxury brand’s home base to New York City’s trendy SoHo neighborhood. Steve Carlisle, a longtime GM executive who took over Cadillac in April, confirmed the move, saying in an interview that he wants the brand’s leaders to be closer to GM’s vehicle design and engineering hub in suburban Detroit, especially as GM prepares to roll out several new Cadillac models in coming years.”

— Health-care costs burden small businesses. The Hill's Niv Elis: “Small Business Owners say that the most important issue affecting them is the cost of health care, according to the National Small Business Association’s annual Politics of Small Business Survey. When asked what issues they raised most with elected officials, 40 percent of the surveyed owners said health care costs. Local issues were second on the list at 28 percent and tax reform came third with 37 percent.”

MONEY ON THE HILL

— Trump pledges not to shut down government. The Post's Erica Werner and Damian Paletta: "Trump pledged Wednesday that he would not allow the government to partially shut down next week, backing down from his demand that Congress appropriate billions of dollars for new construction of a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico. Keeping the government open after Sunday would require Trump to sign a bipartisan spending bill from Congress, something he had resisted committing to for weeks. But Wednesday, with anxiety building on Capitol Hill, he suggested that he planned to acquiesce. The bill would fund the military and some other government programs through September 2019 and other government operations through Dec. 7. The House passed the legislation 361 to 61 on Wednesday and sent it to Trump."

— GOP ditches tax law as midterms approach. More from Erica and Damian: "Republican campaigns have largely abandoned touting the GOP tax law ahead of the November midterms, with many pivoting instead to divisive issues such as crime and immigration in an effort to motivate conservative voters. The decision to play down the top legislative achievement of [Trump] and congressional Republicans comes as the law’s popularity has eroded and public sentiment has crystallized around the belief that it was primarily a boon for the rich. Democrats, in turn, have gone sharply on offense against the law in a number of races, instead of struggling to defend their 'no' votes as Republicans had predicted would occur.

"House GOP leaders, who continue to view the tax law as a positive, will hold a vote this week on a bill to make the law’s rate cuts permanent for individuals, not just for corporations as is currently the case. But even as they seek to refocus attention on the law, some are all but conceding that the messaging battle is already lost."

CHART TOPPER

From Bloomberg's Zoe Schneeweiss:

DAYBOOK

Today

Coming soon

House Financial Services subcommittee hearing on “opportunities for financial markets in the digital era” tomorrow.

THE FUNNIES

A New Yorker cartoon from Teresa Burns Parkhurst:

BULL SESSION

Trump says China is “attempting to interfere in upcoming 2018 election”:

Michael Caputo loses temper on CNN panel: