An 18 point haul from captain Sergio Aguero and a further 12 from Graziano Pelle, along with 7 a piece from Alexis Sanchez and Dele Alli, meant that our recommended XV brought home a respectable 59 points for Gameweek 33. With the largest double gameweek of the season now upon us, read on as we analyse the defensive and attacking odds for Gameweek 34, where we have taken into account both games for those players and teams that play twice in our implied chance percentages. In a slight break from tradition, we have chosen to save money by filling our bench with cheap players who are likely to start, allowing us to put out the strongest possible starting XI as we aim to maximise our points potential.

Defensive odds

Team Clean Sheet Odds Implied chance Man Utd 1.53 & 2 83% Arsenal 2 & 1.91 76% Liverpool 2.88 & 2.55 60% Man City 3.75 & 2.45 56% West Ham 4.6 & 2.62 52% Newcastle 2.8 & 6.5 46% Watford 3.3 & 4.75 45% Everton 3 & 5.75 44% West Brom 2.62 & 10 44% Tottenham 2.45 41% Leicester 2.7 37% Norwich 2.88 35% Sunderland 3.4 29% Chelsea 3.6 28% Swansea 3.6 28% Southampton 3.8 26% Crystal Palace 9 & 6 26% Bournemouth 4 25% Stoke 4.75 21% Aston Villa 10 10%

With an extremely favourable double gameweek that includes home clashes against Aston Villa and Crystal Palace, Manchester United top the bookies defensive rankings with an 83% chance of keeping at least 1 clean sheet. The Championship-bound Villains have only scored once in their last 5 away games, whilst Alan Pardew’s men have been lean in front of goal lately, scoring just 3 goals in their last 4 outings, blanking in 2 of those. As a result, the Red Devils will be confident of adding to the 10 clean sheets already accrued at Old Trafford in the league this term. David de Gea represents a solid option between the sticks, whilst Timothy Fosu-Mensah has seemingly usurped Matteo Darmian at right back following some impressive performances of late.

Arsenal’s (76%) favourable double header sees them welcome both Palace and West Brom to The Emirates. With 2 clean sheets in their last 3 games, the Gunners back line will be looking forward to facing the aforementioned Eagles and Tony Pulis’ men, who are the 3rd lowest scorers away from home in the division, having mustered just 12 goals in 16 games. Hector Bellerin’s attacking threat sees him make our squad following a goal and 3 assists in his last 4, whilst Gabriel represents a cheap route into Arsene Wenger’s defensive unit.

Liverpool (60%), Manchester City (56%) and West Ham (52%) all enjoy a pair of fixtures too and make up the top 5 defensive prospects for the gameweek. However, with our keeper and 3 starting defenders covered by our double-ups on United and Arsenal, we choose to avoid the rotation risks at Liverpool and City, who are both still involved in European competitions (at the time of writing), and choose cheap double gameweek players in order to hoard finances for our front 7. We draft in Angelo Ogbonna for coverage of the Hammers’ defence, whilst Everton’s Joel Robles satisfies our goalkeeping requirements off the back of a 14 point haul in Gameweek 33, and Newcastle’s Jerome Lascelles occupies the final place on our bench in light of his double, albeit we do not expect him to feature for our squad.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from Bournemouth (25% – home to Liverpool), Stoke (21% – home to Tottenham) and Aston Villa (10% – away to Man United) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Goalscorer Odds Implied chance Sergio Aguero 2.5 & 1.73 75% Marcus Rashford 2.2 & 2.2 70% Daniel Sturridge 2.5 & 2.1 69% Alexis Sanchez 2.75 & 2.05 67% Danny Welbeck 2.75 & 2.05 67% Romelu Lukaku 2.4 & 2.63 64% Roberto Firmino 3.25 & 2.63 57% Andy Carroll 3.75 & 2.4 57% Odion Ighalo 3.3 & 2.88 55% Kevin de Bruyne 4.1 & 2.75 52% Aleksandar Mitrovic 3 & 3.75 51% Jesse Lingard 3.2 & 3.4 51% Dimitri Payet 4 & 2.88 51% Saido Berahino 3.2 & 4 48% Harry Kane 2.2 45% Jamie Vardy 2.25 44% Ross Barkley 4.1 & 4.5 41% Diego Costa 2.55 39% Georginio Wijnaldum 4.5 & 4.75 39% Connor Wickham 6 & 4.75 34% Graziano Pelle 3.2 31% Stephane Sessegnon 5.5 & 6.5 31% Dieumerci Mbokani 3.25 31% Jermain Defoe 3.25 31% Riyad Mahrez 3.25 31% Nordin Amrabat 6.75 & 6 29% Alberto Paloschi 3.6 28% Callum Wilson 3.75 27% Dele Alli 3.75 27% Gylfi Sigurdsson 3.8 26% Sadio Mane 4 25% Yannick Bolasie 8.5 & 6.5 25% Josh King 4.25 24% Wahbi Khazri 4.35 23% Pedro 4.35 23% Bojan 4.5 22% Xerdan Shaqiri 6 17% Robbie Brady 7 14% Jordan Ayew 7 14% Jack Grealish 11 9%

Despite missing a penalty in the Champions League midweek, Sergio Aguero retains the faith of the bookies and our captain’s armband for the 3rd week in a row, with a 75% chance of netting over the course of the double. The Argentine will travel to London to face Chelsea before heading to the North East to tackle Newcastle. In their last 6 games each, the Blues and the Toon have managed just 1 clean sheet between them, highlighting their lack of defensive resolve and Aguero’s resulting potential. Having netted in both of his last 2 league outings, further profits could be just around the corner for Sergio.

Marcus Rashford (70%) joins Aguero upfront courtesy of a couple of tasty fixtures against the porous defences of Aston Villa and Crystal Palace: the pair have conceded 106 goals between them this term. United’s latest prodigy has burst onto the scene over the past few months, bagging 6 goals in 11 appearances in all competitions, and at a price of just £4.5m looks a handy enabler for Gameweek 34 squads. Romelu Lukaku (64%) completes our front 3. Despite no goal in 4, the Belgian powerhouse has still managed 18 this season and represents the Toffees’ chief threat ahead of a home game with Southampton (no clean sheet in 7) and a trip across the Mersey for a derby date with fierce rivals Liverpool. Further appeasing our faith is the fact that Big Rom bagged in both of the reverse fixtures earlier this campaign (2 vs Southampton, 1 vs Liverpool).

With 3 goals and 3 assists in his last 5 games, Alexis Sanchez (67%) is our 1st midfield pick. A tasty pair of home ties against Crystal Palace and West Brom, both who have relatively little to play for, bodes well for the Chilean as Arsenal look to cement a top 3 finish. Kevin de Bruyne (52%) is another premium-priced midfielder who makes our XI having returned from a spell on the sidelines with aplomb, striking 3 times in 4 appearances domestically and in Europe. Facing the same leaky defences as teammate Sergio Aguero, a double up on City’s main attacking outlets is called for.

Roberto Firmino (57%) and Dimitri Payet (51%) complete our midfield quartet this time round.

A double against Bournemouth and Everton, who have 2 clean sheets between them in their last 10 games, brings Liverpool’s Brazilian attacker onto our radars following a sparkling run of form that has seen him card 7 goals and 4 assists in the league since the turn of the year. Meanwhile, the mercurial Payet has also been in strong form this calendar year, notching 4 goals and 5 assists for the Hammers in the top flight. A visit to The King Power won’t be easy, seeing as Leicester have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 6 home games, but a home clash with Watford on Wednesday could prove profitable, given that the Hornets haven’t registered an away shutout in their last 7 attempts. With only £4.5m of our budget remaining, Danny Drinkwater, who has chalked up 2 goals and 6 assists this term, makes our bench and completes our squad.

Other viable options for our front 8 include Daniel Sturridge (69%), who has 2 goals and an assist in 3 league outings, Danny Welbeck (67%), who looks to have cemented to forward role at the tip of Arsenal’s potent attack, and Manchester United winger Jesse Lingard (51%), but the trio miss out on our recommended XV due to squad selection and/or budget restraints.

The Gameweek Squad

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Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter.