Well that didn’t take long.

Sixteen months and 10 days after being sworn into office and Premier Brian Pallister is already talking about raising taxes. I guess we now know who the real Brian Pallister is.

The premier said Wednesday that health care costs are escalating so rapidly, government will have no choice but to either bring in a new health tax or cut services. With the federal government no longer increasing health care transfers to the provinces by 6% a year (Manitoba got a 3.4% increase from Ottawa in 2017), the “stark” reality is that Manitoba has no choice but to either charge Manitobans a health care premium on their income taxes or slash services, Pallister said.

Of course, the premier’s assertions are utter nonsense. He’s creating an entirely false and misleading scenario and attaching a fabricated ultimatum to it. The evidence clearly shows he’s not telling Manitobans the truth. Which is why his tax proposal is hopelessly indefensible.

Let’s go through the numbers.

For starters, Manitoba Health’s budget is not spiralling out of control. It’s up only 1.8% this year compared to last year. And with the savings the Pallister government is pursuing in 2017 and in future years, including a wage freeze for public sector workers, there’s no reason to believe health spending will escalate much beyond that. Also, with government revenues increasing well above inflation — they’re up 3.5% this year — the province is well positioned to cover incremental cost increases in health without a new tax.

You may have heard Health Minister Kelvin Goertzen say that if government doesn’t do something soon to control health care spending, eventually there will only be two provincial government departments left: Health and Finance. The inference is that health spending is growing so rapidly, it’s crowding out spending in other areas of government. That may make for good political rhetoric, but there’s no truth to it whatsoever.

Spending on health care in Manitoba is not taking up an increasingly larger share of the provincial budget. In fact, it’s about the same as it was 15 years ago.

In 2002, health care spending represented 39.6% of the provincial budget. That rose marginally and peaked at 41.9% in 2004. It fell to as low as 35.1% in 2007 and began to rise again, very slowly, to about 39% by 2015, which is where it has levelled off. Health care took up 39.2% of total spending in the 2017 budget, slightly below the 39.9% it was at the year before and about the same as it was in 2002. So the notion that health care is gobbling up an increasingly larger share of the spending pie is entirely bogus.

Pallister is also blaming Manitoba’s health care woes on what he calls federal funding cuts. However, the feds aren’t cutting health care funding. They’re not increasing it as much as they have in the past, something the provinces have known about since 2011 when it was first announced by the former Harper government. But there are no cuts.

It’s interesting to note that while in opposition, not once did Pallister criticize the former Harper government for its plans to reduce Canada Health Transfer increases from 6% a year to a floor of 3%. Pallister has known about the plan for years and he certainly knew about it during last year’s election when he campaigned on a platform to balance the books, cut the PST and control government spending. It’s only now that he’s suddenly flagging it as a problem.

Meanwhile, the difference between getting a 6% and 3.4% increase in the CHT for Manitoba this year only amounts to $33.6 million. To put that into perspective, that’s about half of 1% of Manitoba’s $6.1-billion health care budget. It’s certainly no reason to bring in a new tax. Besides, that’s more than offset by an extra $84 million the province is getting in equalization payments from the federal government this year. All told, Manitoba is expected to receive $147 million more in major transfers from Ottawa in 2017 compared to last year. In fact, Manitoba continues to get the highest per capita federal transfers of any province west of New Brunswick. And Pallister wants to bring in a new health care tax?

Manitobans can’t afford to give more of their money to government. They already pay among the highest taxes in Canada. It’s unfortunate Pallister doesn’t understand that. If he did, he wouldn’t even be contemplating a new tax.

The premier has fashioned himself as a fiscal conservative, a good money manager and a responsible steward of the public treasury.

It turns out he is nothing of the kind.

Manitoba Health spending as % of total budget

2017-18 39.2 %

2016-17 39.9 %

2015-16 39.2 %

2014-15 38.3 %

2013-14 38.1 %

2012-13 38.5 %

2011-12 38.6 %

2010-12 38.3 %

2009-10 37.2 %

2008-09 35.8 %

2007-08 35.1 %

2006-07 41.6 %

2005-06 41.7 %

2004-05 41.9 %

2003-04 40.9 %

2002-03 39.6%

— Manitoba budgets 2002-2017