Mainstreet Research says the odds of winning the NDP leadership race are in Jagmeet Singh’s favour right now – but no matter who wins, it will take a few rounds of voting before the new leader is named.

Mainstreet ran a series of simulations based on iPolitics/Mainstreet polling, which was sponsored by Friends of Canadian Broadcasting, collected throughout the race to calculate the probability of candidates winning, and concluded that Singh has a 62.4 per cent chance of becoming the next NDP leader. Charlie Angus, meanwhile, won 37.6 per cent of the time in the simulations.

Mainstreet ran 1,000 simulations of the balloting. None of the simulations predicted a first ballot win, and a staggering 983 of them involve a third round of voting.

Singh has only a 1.7 per cent probability of winning on the second ballot.

Pollster Quito Maggi said only Singh and Angus have a reasonable shot of winning at this point, but because “no one in the simulation has a chance to win on the first ballot” it’s still going to be a “serious horse race” between the two.

Complicating matters, NDP members who vote online can change their votes after each count if no winner is declared.

And Singh’s high current probability of winning doesn’t mean he’s got the race in the bag.

“The fact that Charlie Angus wins over 30 per cent of the simulations shows he’s got a very serious, significant chance of winning,” Maggi said.

“It’s just going to depend on where the first ballot lands.”

In order to win, Mainstreet suggests Singh needs to come in at over 36 per cent on the first ballot.

If Singh only takes 32 or 33 per cent of the votes on the first ballot, then the simulations suggest he has only a 6.7 per cent chance of prevailing; in those scenarios, Angus wins the race. But if Singh lands between 36 per cent and 37 per cent, he wins 53.1 per cent of the time.

Singh does get close to a first ballot win in a few of Mainstreet’s scenarios: His ceiling was projected to be a maximum of 48.92 per cent for that first round.

“There’s a possibility that Jagmeet Singh might be able to outperform these numbers, but if he does, it’s going to be a squeaker,” Maggi said.

He said that the probability model Mainstreet used doesn’t account for some factors that could allow for the possibility of a first ballot win (household size, for example — which could have an effect if families come out in droves to vote for a particular candidate). But Singh squeaking out a first ballot win “would be a surprise,” Maggi said.

Niki Ashton, meanwhile, has an 89.4 per cent likelihood of coming in third, while Guy Caron’s chances of a third place finish are much lower: 10.6 per cent.

Maggi said running through three rounds, making it a longer race, would be good for the party because it would create “more buzz” about the race in the wider voting public.

First ballot polls close this Sunday at 2 p.m. (EST). The second ballot count lands on the next Sunday, on Thanksgiving weekend.

The latest round of Mainstreet polling out Thursday shows that Singh has widened his lead to 33.1 per cent support, while Charlie Angus holds a close second place at 26.1 per cent. But Singh also has the weakest second-choice support.