Report: Shifting demographics favor Democrats in 2016 unless GOP gains many white voters

A more racially diverse young electorate than ever before could portend well for Democrats not only in 2016 but for every presidential election until 2032, according to a report released Thursday.

On the other hand, a rapidly-growing older white generation combined with low turnout among minority voters might narrowly favor Republicans for cycles to come.

Researchers at the Brookings Institution and American Enterprise Institute, two think tanks in Washington D.C., used the projected demographic of eligible voters for 2016 but with turnout rates and candidate preferences from the last four elections, two in which Democrats were victorious and two won by Republicans.

What they found was that shifting demographics overwhelmingly favor Democrats if current race, age and state voter turnout continue. But if conditions similar to the 2004 elections hold, when white voters came out en masse compared with lower numbers of minorities, Republicans could win narrowly and keep that edge for the next few election cycles, despite the sweeping and rapid demographic changes taking place across the nation and the state.

The report, issued the same day as the last Republican debate before Super Tuesday, offers some insight into how candidates on both sides may need to play to win, not only this year but going forward. The findings come as a Washington Post-Univision poll found Thursday that billionaire entrepreneur Donald Trump fares the worst of all four GOP presidential candidates among Hispanics when matched against Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders.

Trump loses the Hispanic vote to Clinton by 73 to 16 percent, significantly wider than the 44-point margin by which Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney lost Hispanics four years ago. Trump does about the same when competing for that demographic against Sanders.

The Republican loss in 2012, when Romney won only 27 percent of the Latino vote, prompted some analysts to argue that the GOP needs to attract anywhere from 33 to 49 percent of the fast-growing Hispanic demographic to win a general election. But others say the GOP could offset the loss of Hispanic voters by finding enough white voters, a strategy which both Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz seem to be pursuing so far, at least in the primaries.

In the six scenarios considered in the report Thursday, including if more Hispanics and Asians vote Republican, only one yields a GOP popular vote victory in 2016: If the level of Republican support from white voters of all age categories in every state increased by about 5 points, raising the overall GOP margin among white voters by 10 points.

That would be equivalent to Ronald Reagan's advantage among whites in his landslide 1984 victory and is considered the best case Republican scenario. In every other projection, Democrats win the popular vote in 2016, according to the report.

But as the 2000 election of President George W. Bush illustrated, it is possible to lose the popular vote but still win the Electoral College vote. Under the researchers' modeling, Republicans could win the Electoral College vote under only two scenarios, if they either gain the significant amount of white voters described above or if they have the same GOP-favorable 2004 turnout rates and candidate preferences by age, race and state.

The researchers concluded that the shifting demographics favor Democrats in 2016 and that even greater Republican voting among Hispanics and Asians don't alter the Electoral College result. Nevertheless, Republicans can alleviate this impact if they have voter turnout and preferences resembling Bush's 2004 win or if they gain a large enough share of white voters.

The findings could explain why neither the two Republican front-runners, Trump or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, seem particularly concerned about reaching out to minorities and, in fact, might gain from using harsh rhetoric against them.

For more findings, including how swing states could change and projections for the next four cycles, click here. To see an interactive map, click here.