California Primary Thoughts

The California primary is in the books. Okay, not exactly. There are still plenty of ballots to be counted and actually some ballots with a Tuesday postmark can be accepted up until tomorrow. The post-election count favored Democrats until 2016. At that point Democrats started trying to get their voters to vote earlier. More early Democratic votes meant less late votes. I reserve the right to revise this based on changing tallies.

A big question people have been asking for over a year is whether 2018 will be a wave election for Democrats. Some assume it’ll be a wave and the question is how big a wave. California’s top two primary can provide a great indicator because everyone who can vote in November can vote here and they can vote for anyone regardless of party. So it’s similar to the November election.

It wasn’t a great night for Democrats because:

Their average statewide two party margin was 61%-39%. That’s nowhere near the 70%-30% they got in the 2016 primary or the 66%-34% Hillary Clinton got in the general election.

It was a great night for Democrats because:

They don’t need to be at 70%-30% or 66%-34%. The November 2014 margin was 57%-43%. That was a very Republican year but if they end up 61%-39% in November they’ll be very happy.

It wasn’t a great night for Democrats because:

They only finished with more votes than Republicans in one of the Clinton won congressional districts. Democrats have been killing it in special elections all over the country and they didn’t kill it in one district.

Democrats and the DCCC outspent Republicans roughly $35 million to $8 million in six Clinton districts in the primary. That’s general election levels of spending for them. While Democrats usually outspend Republicans it’s unlikely to by such a big margin. They spent a ton of money and just did decently well.

It was a great night for Democrats because:

Yes, Clinton won those districts in the primary and general election in 2016 but Democrats running in those districts didn’t do well. Even though the electorate wasn’t as Democratic as the 2016 primary electorate Democrats did a lot better. They lost CA-45 by 20 points in the 2016 primary. Right now they lost it by 9 points. They cut the margins significantly in 6 of the 7 Clinton districts. In the past there was a big difference between Presidential and congressional vote totals. Democrats cut that gap significantly with this primary.

Republicans weren’t that close in any Democratic district. The closest margin was 5 points in CA-24. If that goes up by a few points we’ll likely declare all the Democratic districts safe. Even in the very Democratic 2016 Republicans almost beat Ami Bera in CA-7. Democrats would love not to play defense.

We don’t know how the primary will translate to the general. In 2014 Democrats stood a shot in any district Republicans won by 10 points or less. If Democrats close any gap that’s 10 points or less they’ll flip 6 districts.

I think Democrats set the bar way too high when they were talking about the election. They not only were going to take the 7 Clinton districts but they were going to beat Tom McClintock, Devin Nunes, and Duncan Hunter. They aren’t taking any of those and beating David Valadao looks like a long shot.

Republicans currently hold 26% of the congressional districts. Donald Trump was the worst performing Republican ever statewide and he took 34% of the vote. So Republicans already hold a disproportionately small share of the districts. That Democrats can still take more despite only getting 61% of the statewide vote is remarkable. The bar needs to be a bit lower. Democrats are running a bunch of political outsiders against Republicans who’ve won a lot of elections. It’ll be a good night if Democrats take three of the six Clinton districts in November.

Right now I’d make Democrats favorites only in CA-49 but I’d also make Republicans favorites in only CA-45. CA-10, 25, 39, and 48 are toss-ups, IMO.

It wasn’t a great night for Democrats because:

They crashed and burned in state senate races. Now I know that some people don’t care about legislative elections and Democrats sure didn’t spend $35 million on them. But they did spend $4 million against the Josh Newman recall in SD-29. Hillary Clinton won the district 54%-41%. That should be a slam dunk to beat the recall. Newman was recalled 59%-41%. In California recall elections the second question is who you vote for to replace the office holder if the recall is successful. Republicans won that 59%-41%. They didn’t come any closer there.

It wasn’t just SD-29. Clinton won the neighboring SD-34 by 23 points. Democrats lost it by 26. Clinton won SD-14 by 23. Democrats lost it by 11. Clinton won SD-12 by 20 points. It’s a small consolation they only lost it by 1 point.

How is it possible for Democrats to do well in the congressional election but bomb in state senate elections? It’s not like they didn’t want to win the senate seats. Losing SD-29 is an embarrassment. It costs them their 2/3 super majority and sends a signal to any Democrat in a swing district that they could be recalled with one wrong vote. Was it just money? I’m sure Republicans would like to think that it was. They weren’t extremely outspent in the senate elections. So if they spent more on par with Democrats in the congressional elections they would’ve done better.

I think that explanation is a bit simple. Still, the senate results should give the GOP hope for the congressional races.

It was a great night for Democrats because:

They stole a Republican assembly seat. Rocky Chavez’s AD-76 had 6 Republicans and 2 Democrats. Each party took roughly half the vote. The 2 Democrats got 25% each. They’ll advance top two. So whatever happens Democrats get a pick up there. What makes it more embarrassing is that Chavez could’ve run for re-election. Instead he finished a distant 6thplace in the CA-49 congressional race.

Democrats also look like they’ll finally pick up the San Bernadino AD-40. They won the primary by 7.

It wasn’t a great night for Democrats because:

Democrats look vulnerable in AD-32, 60, and 65. They didn’t do state senate bad in the assembly races but they could end up losing a seat in November. Republican Catherine Baker holds a very Democratic Bay area seat. They didn’t come close against her. This doesn’t really qualify as a bad night. They already have a super majority in the assembly. When you’re winning as much as they have they can afford a couple of bloopers.