New England

Oakland loss + Kansas City win

The Patriots are already in pretty great shape. Just how weak is the AFC playoff field? Alex Smith is the third best quarterback, if that tells you anything.

An Oakland loss gives the Patriots the 1-seed and home field throughout the AFC playoffs. A Chiefs win as well would move Kansas City to the 2-seed and ensure that the Pats would not have to play both Pittsburgh and Kansas City, the two other teams with their usual starting quarterback and any realistic chance of winning in New England on the road. The Patriots have a top-3 passing offense and rush defense, but the run game is lacking with a poor yards per carry so that’s the one bugaboo, especially if they get in a cold, snow game.

In this scenario, the Pats get to play either Tom Savage, Matt McGloin, or Matt Moore to get a home game in the conference championship. Can’t ask for much more than that.

Oakland

Win + New England loss + Kansas City loss

Assuming the Raiders can’t go back in time and take Derek Carr out last week with a 19-point lead in the fourth quarter, this will have to do. A Raiders win and Patriots loss would give Oakland the 1-seed and home field advantage, and frankly that’s the only shot they have at this point.

Matt McGloin is not a good NFL quarterback, but the Raiders have a strong offensive line and excellent run game so that’s their best hope now. The defense is not good, allowing the 4th worst yards per carry (YPC) and 2nd worst yards per pass attempt (YPA), and nine of the twelve wins so far have come by just one score so there’s a lot of smoke and mirrors. Oakland needs a pair of home games and some continued magic.

A Chiefs win ensures Oakland a bye week even if the Raiders lose this week, but it also moves K.C. to the 6-seed in this scenario and a road game against Pittsburgh. Assuming the Steelers win that one, that would give the Raiders a home game against the backup-led Texans or Dolphins in the conference semifinals. Any other matchup and they’ll be underdogs now.

Pittsburgh

New England win + at least one of Oakland wins or Kansas City loses

Status quo looks pretty good for the Steelers. Pittsburgh is the 3-seed either way, and a Patriots win means the Steelers would face the Dolphins in round one. Pittsburgh will go on the road to the 2-seed after that, so a Raiders win or Chiefs loss confirms their potential trip to Matt McGloin’s Oakland. The Steelers might be favored by a touchdown in that game, even on the road against a team coming off a bye.

If Oakland remains the 2-seed, Pittsburgh becomes the AFC’s second favorite after New England. The Steelers are tied with the Patriots for the longest win streak in the NFL right now at six games and they have a balanced offensive attack and are a real threat.

Houston

New England loss + Kansas City loss + Oakland win

Houston is rooting for the same thing as the Raiders — a 1-seed for Oakland and a first round home game for the Texans against Miami. This scenario means they could have games against Matt Moore and Matt McGloin for a shot at the AFC title game for the first time in franchise history.

Don’t count out the Texans just yet. They have the best pass defense in football outside of Denver, and that’s the perfect antidote in the AFC with the teams in the field. Their own passing attack has an abysmal 5.9 YPA this season, worst in the league, but new quarterback Tom Savage is at 6.7 YPA these last two games — only bottom eight!

Kansas City

Win + Oakland loss

It’s pretty easy for the Chiefs. A win against the Chargers combined with a Raiders loss, and they jump to the 2-seed and at least one home game instead of playing on the road the entire playoffs. If Kansas City jumps back to the 2-seed, they become the AFC’s second biggest threat since they would host Pittsburgh in the conference semis, should the Steelers make it there.

You could argue that a Chiefs win, Raiders win, and Patriots loss combo might be better. That would give Kansas City a road game against Houston followed up by a likely road game in Oakland, and it would guarantee that the Chiefs wouldn’t have to play both New England and Pittsburgh. But it would also mean three road games and no week off, so it’s not the preferred path. The Chiefs only real weakness is a below average run defense.

Miami

Win + Kansas City loss + Oakland win

Houston, Oakland, and Miami are all rooting for the same scenario, basically any chance to play each other’s backup quarterbacks instead of a Pro Bowler. Miami quietly had an excellent offense this year, top seven in both YPC and YPA, and they had the second fewest pass attempts this year so that limits the loss at quarterback some. And really, the downgrade from Ryan Tannehill to Matt Moore (if Tannehill is still out injured) is one of the smaller gaps from starter to backup in the NFL. Read into that what you will.

Either way it means Miami would actually have the better QB in a round one game in Houston and then maybe again in Oakland after that. The Dolphins allow an abysmal 4.9 YPC, worst in the league. It will probably be that, and not the quarterback injury, that does them in at some point.

Dallas

Atlanta win + Detroit win + Seattle loss + Washington win

As awesome as the Cowboys have been all season at 13–2, there are still plenty of scary playoff matchups coming in the NFC. Dallas has the best rushing defense in football and an imperial rushing attack, ranked second behind Buffalo. They’re actually a good passing team as well, top-7 in YPA, just with the fewest attempts in the league — a bit reminiscent of Seattle with a lesser known Russell Wilson a few years ago. They pass only when they need to, but the passing attack has been quite effective.

The combination above would leave Detroit hosting Washington in the 3–6 wildcard game. That means no Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs (something every other NFC team will be rooting for) and also gives Dallas a decent shot at facing the Redskins and their terrible run defense after the bye.

The Giants and Seahawks would face each other in the 4–5 game and that’s great for Dallas too since that eliminates one of them. Both are among the top run defenses in football and seem to be the two teams Dallas least wants to play. Hosting Washington and then Atlanta for a shot at the Super Bowl? That seems like the best possible scenario for Cowboys fans.

Atlanta

Win + Detroit win + Seattle loss + Washington win

This is the identical scenario to Dallas above. An Atlanta win gives the Falcons the 2-seed, a bye, and at least one home game. Rodgers and Green Bay are out, and here Atlanta would be hoping for Detroit to hold serve at home against Washington in round one so the Falcons host the Lions after the bye. The best case scenario for every NFC team is a game against the Lions or Redskins. Every other team is a real threat.

Folks might be sleeping a bit on the Falcons, whose passing attack is even more dominant than the Cowboys rushing attack. Atlanta leads the league with an absurd 9.2 YPA, more than a full yard ahead of the Patriots in second. If almost every pass you throw is worth a first down, you can line up against anyone.

Seattle

Win + Atlanta loss + Detroit win + Washington win

Seattle has serious problems offensively, so they’ll need to rely on a dominant defense to carry the day. The Seahawks will have the second best pass defense in the playoffs behind only the Texans, and they led the league with a tiny 3.5 YPC allowed on rush defense. A defense like that makes Seattle the biggest nightmare for teams like Dallas, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh that are all about their offense. The Seahawks are probably the one team that the most opponents will breathe a sigh of relief if they get eliminated.

An Atlanta loss and Seattle win would give the Seahawks the 2-seed in the NFC, along with a bye and at least one home game in a stadium where Seattle is feared. And like the rest of the NFC, they’d much rather see Detroit and Washington in the playoffs than Green Bay. Like Atlanta above, the Seahawks would hope for the Lions to hold serve at home, giving Seattle a home game against Detroit to get to the conference finals.

Green Bay

Loss + Seattle loss + Washington loss

Not what you expected? The Packers have one of the worst pass defenses in football, with the fourth most yards allowed and the highest YPA at 8.0. A matchup against Atlanta looks like a disaster, so Green Bay fans should hope to avoid the Falcons at all costs in the NFC.

A Redskins loss ensures the Packers make the playoffs, but Green Bay might be better off at the 6-seed than at the 3- or 4-seed. Yes it means no home games for a team that would enter the playoffs 3–5 on the road, but it also means a winnable road playoff game against Detroit in the first round and avoiding Atlanta in the conference semifinals. Any NFC path for the Packers will be pretty tough but, weirdly, the 6-seed might be their best bet.

Detroit

Win + Atlanta loss + Seattle loss

If you haven’t caught on yet, Detroit isn’t very good. They have a negative point differential on the season, and eight of nine Lions wins this year have been by one possession. Detroit is 0–4 against playoff teams (1–4 if Washington makes it). The Lions are among the worst defenses in the league in yards per play against both run and pass, so they basically need to keep the defense off the field — but they also have a terrible 3.7 YPC and the fewest rushes in football. How is Detroit winning games? No one really knows.

And yet, despite all that, a victory over Green Bay wins the division while losses by Atlanta and Seattle would give Detroit a very unlikely 2-seed and a bye. They’d be the worst team in the NFC playoffs so that’s honestly their best shot at making it out of the wildcard round.

New York Giants

Loss + Detroit win + Seattle win + Atlanta win

Status quo looks pretty good for the Giants, who are locked into the 5-seed no matter what happens this weekend. These results would knock the Packers out and give the Giants a round one game against Detroit. That’s by far the best scenario for New York since their other possible opponents are quarterbacked by Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers.

The Giants may not be as dangerous as you think, unless you’re a Cowboys fan. New York has the second best rush defense at just 3.6 YPC allowed, but nothing else is too scary. They are bottom ten in YPA passing and third worst with a 3.5 YPC running. The Giants aren’t going to win shootouts against great offenses like Dallas and Atlanta, so it’s defense or broke for the Giants. In a loaded NFC, it may be too much to hope for three road wins this year.

Washington

Win + Detroit win + Seattle loss + Atlanta win

Washington has a bad run defense and an even worse pass defense, so they are in trouble any time they don’t have the football, especially with the loaded NFC playoff picture. The Redskins are top-3 in passing yards and YPA and have actually been quite good running the ball with Robb Kelley too, so they’ll have to win four shootouts.

It’s an uphill battle, but the best scenario is a playoff berth and a road game in Detroit. Win that one and it’s a road game in Dallas, hardly an ideal opponent but a rivalry game so you never know. And Washington’s defense is bad enough that “you never know” is probably their best shot.

Tampa Bay

Win + Dallas win + Detroit win + Tennessee win + Indianapolis win + Seattle loss + Washington TIE + Atlanta win

Bucs fans, it was a nice season. The good news is you’re still alive in the playoff race since a loss by Dallas or Kansas City the last two days would’ve eliminated you — but the bad news is you’re still six more exact results away from a playoff berth, and that includes needing a tie from Washington and New York. All of that would leave a 3-way tie for the final wildcard spot between 9–7 Tampa Bay, 9–7 Green Bay, and 8–6–2 Washington, and that is literally the only way the Bucs can sneak in and grab the 6-seed.

The Atlanta win isn’t needed but if we’re playing make believe, we may as well give the Bucs a game against the Lions in round one, too!

Neutral fans

Green Bay win + Seattle loss + Washington win

Oakland win + Kansas City win + New England loss

If you really have no dog in the fight and just want the most fun playoff matchups possible, this is your best outcome.

In the NFC you get a Green Bay-Washington shootout opening weekend and probably another shootout the following weekend between the Packers and Falcons. You also get a fun battle between Seattle and New York, two gritty defenses and quarterbacks with big playoff resumes, with the winner likely to pose a huge threat to Dallas the following weekend. That’s fun.

In the AFC, this is the best way to give us four contenders, with Oakland as a 1-seed. It also makes things harder for the Patriots since they’d either have to beat both Pittsburgh and Kansas City or win on the road in Oakland in a Tuck Game flashback. The AFC opening weekend isn’t going to be as exciting as the NFC but this sets up Patriots-Steelers and Raiders-Chiefs showdowns in the conference semifinals and that’s some great football.

Enjoy the games, everyone!