It’s Week 4, and your season is completely falling apart. Or maybe that’s just me. You’re looking at the rankings and the articles and you don’t know what to do. Well I’m here to tell you that I don’t either, but I do know that there are some players for whom the top experts have a different opinion than the rest of the pack.

This is a look at where last year’s top 20 overall experts disagreed most with this week’s default ECR. They were top experts last year, so maybe they know more than the crowd this year too, but take these numbers with a grain of salt. Use them as an indicator that you should look closer at the player, the match-up, and other factors, but don’t treat them as your gospel. A negative rank spread indicates that our top experts consider the player to be underrated, while a positive number signals an overrated player. The higher/lower the number the more overrated/underrated the player is.

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Quarterbacks

Top Experts Like Them More

Out of the top 20 quarterbacks in the default ECR, here are the three where the top experts had them doing much better than the ECR.

Default ECR Top Experts Player Name Team Matchup Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Rank Spread Colin Kaepernick SF vs. GB 9 25 17.53 3.37 11 24 16.20 3.03 -1.33 Russell Wilson SEA vs. DET 1 12 5.09 2.27 3 12 4.20 1.94 -0.89 Philip Rivers SD vs. CLE 4 18 11.11 2.27 6 15 10.35 1.93 -0.76

According to the top experts’ rankings, Kaepernick is easily the most underrated QB if you’re looking at ECR. Still, chances are Wilson and Rivers are the two here that are relevant in most leagues.

Top Experts Like Them Less

Out of the top 20 quarterbacks in the default ECR, here are the three where the top experts had them doing much worse than the ECR.

Player Name Team Matchup Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Rank Spread Andy Dalton CIN vs. KC 2 15 7.93 2.33 3 15 9.10 2.64 1.17 Ryan Tannehill MIA vs. NYJ 10 22 15.71 2.19 12 19 16.50 2.01 0.79 Eli Manning NYG at BUF 6 26 12.62 2.44 8 19 13.40 2.46 0.78

Andy Dalton looks like he’s easily the most overrated here. Eli’s looking overrated overall. Interestingly, the top experts also have him with a much lower worst rank than he gets in ECR.

Running Backs

Top Experts Like Them More

Out of the top 50 running backs in the default ECR, here are the five where the top experts had them doing much better than the ECR.

Default ECR Top Experts Player Name Team Matchup Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Rank Spread Duke Johnson CLE at SD 24 54 41.70 5.46 24 48 38.53 5.78 -3.18 Charles Sims TB vs. CAR 32 71 47.54 4.86 36 51 45.12 3.88 -2.42 Shane Vereen NYG at BUF 20 62 39.59 5.25 30 41 37.50 3.26 -2.09 Karlos Williams BUF vs. NYG 5 38 10.57 3.99 5 12 8.80 1.63 -1.77 Bilal Powell NYJ at MIA 25 54 38.65 4.63 27 50 36.95 5.44 -1.70

Duke Johnson is looking pretty underrated. In larger leagues, he might be worth a second thought for your flex spot, depending on the quality of your team of course. Karlos Williams owners should feel encouraged as he is looking pretty underrated, with the top experts having him with an average ranking that places him in the top 10.

Top Experts Like Them Less

Out of the top 50 running backs in the default ECR, here are the five where the top experts had them doing much worse than the ECR.

Default ECR Top Experts Player Name Team Matchup Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Rank Spread Thomas Rawls SEA vs. DET 12 80 41.22 10.28 36 80 47.44 10.15 6.22 LeSean McCoy BUF vs. NYG 13 79 43.63 11.09 45 61 49.71 5.01 6.09 Alfred Morris WAS vs. PHI 16 46 28.70 4.98 21 46 30.80 5.04 2.10 Ryan Mathews PHI at WAS 4 60 25.51 7.78 15 60 27.55 11.16 2.04 Arian Foster HOU at ATL 1 55 22.14 12.01 6 55 23.65 13.55 1.51

Thomas Rawls and LeSean McCoy are both looking massively overrated, but as much as it feels weird to say this about Shady, that likely only means you’re a bit more certain about leaving them on your bench (since this was written the Bills have declared McCoy out for Week 4). Alfred Morris, Ryan Mathews, and Arian Foster all fall a couple spots in the mid-20’s rankings, so I’d definitely take a closer look at the match-up there.

Wide Receivers

Top Experts Like Them More

Out of the top 50 wide receivers in the default ECR, here are the five where the top experts had them doing much better than the ECR.

Default ECR Top Experts Player Name Team Matchup Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Rank Spread Percy Harvin BUF vs. NYG 17 60 31.19 6.01 17 39 28.40 4.94 -2.79 Anquan Boldin SF vs. GB 22 54 32.76 5.14 22 41 30.65 4.40 -2.11 Marques Colston NO vs. DAL 31 66 49.43 5.50 31 59 47.65 6.71 -1.78 Allen Hurns JAC at IND 22 53 35.59 4.72 24 53 34.10 5.64 -1.49 James Jones GB at SF 5 30 19.05 3.61 8 21 17.75 3.01 -1.30

Percy Harvin and Anquan Boldin are looking fairly underrated and maybe worth a look if you’re in a tough spot. James Jones is looking pretty underrated as well, and the top experts have him with a significantly higher floor, with a worst rank of 21 versus 30 in ECR.

Top Experts Like Them Less

Out of the top 50 wide receivers in the default ECR, here are the five where the top experts had them doing much worse than the ECR.

Default ECR Top Experts Player Name Team Matchup Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Rank Spread Sammy Watkins BUF vs. NYG 21 90 40.46 11.57 37 69 46.60 8.63 6.14 Andre Johnson IND vs. JAC 25 84 49.90 8.31 46 76 53.95 8.35 4.05 Eric Decker NYJ at MIA 20 95 40.57 10.47 30 74 43.53 11.34 2.95 Allen Robinson JAC at IND 11 37 20.81 3.92 19 31 23.45 3.37 2.64 Alshon Jeffery CHI vs. OAK 8 55 25.61 7.65 17 55 27.75 8.10 2.14

When these rankings were coming in, Watkins and Jeffery still hadn’t been ruled out. Robinson has a solid matchup against the Colts, but he’s expected to be shadowed by Vontae Davis. This is why Robinson checks in as overvalued but Allen Hurns is undervalued entering Week 4.

Tight Ends

Top Experts Like Them More

Out of the top tight ends in the default ECR, here are the five where the top experts had them doing better than the ECR.

Default ECR Top Experts Player Name Team Matchup Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Rank Spread Coby Fleener IND vs. JAC 2 29 13.22 3.90 7 23 11.80 3.41 -1.42 Greg Olsen CAR at TB 1 5 1.46 0.96 1 1 1.00 0.00 -0.46 Charles Clay BUF vs. NYG 4 13 7.90 1.67 4 10 7.45 1.72 -0.45

Coby Fleener’s rank spread is more than three times as large as the next largest underrated rank spread. He would seem to be someone worth monitoring, especially if Dwayne Allen is ruled out. But, his upside would be limited if Andrew Luck is sidelined as well.

Top Experts Like Them Less

Out of the top tight ends in the default ECR, here are the five where the top experts had them doing worse than the ECR.

Default ECR Top Experts Player Name Team Matchup Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Best Rank Worst Rank Avg Rank Std Dev Rank Spread Larry Donnell NYG at BUF 10 26 17.47 2.62 16 23 18.58 1.84 1.11 Jordan Reed WAS vs. PHI 2 18 5.88 1.94 3 10 6.40 1.85 0.52 Martellus Bennett CHI vs. OAK 1 10 4.38 1.76 2 9 4.80 1.63 0.42

Larry Donnell also stands above the pack in terms of just how large his overrated rank spread is compared to the rest.

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Hopefully this helps. Good luck!

Matthew Rubin is a correspondent at FantasyPros. Follow Matthew on Twitter @mtthewrubiin.