Because the American electorate is rather evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats, turnout becomes the key to electoral success in November. While a lot can happen in nine months, there are five factors that I see discouraging Democrat turnout and helping the GOP.

The Biden family scandals

Thanks to Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler, and the impeachment lynch mob, the lid has been blown off the Biden family's practice of trading on the patriarch's position to enrich themselves. Biden's campaign is imploding, so he won't be on the ballot. But the investigations of Hunter and Burisma are heating up and will cast a pall over the party. Biden was supposed to be the unifier, a tangible link to the reign of St. Barack, whose appeal to blue collars and African-Americans was supposed to recover lost voters and motivate turnout among the most critical segment of the base.

The Democrat party's bungling of the Iowa caucus count

They are supposed to be the party of science, of the smart guys, the ones who can restructure the economy and medical systems, but they can't even count votes. Even with 100% of the vote finally reported, there are protests that errors and inconsistencies are rampant, and even friendly media outlets are reporting the doubts. Trust in the party is tanking. And it is not just Republicans that are mistrustful.

Genuine socialists are trying to take over the party

Among those distrusting the party apparatus are the Bernshevik faction of the Democrats. If the plutocrats somehow can't stop them, a lot of the suburban voters the Democrats have made inroads on will stay home rather than vote for a man who wants to tax away their wealth because it is unfair they live in nice neighborhoods. But if the rule-changing to allow Michael Bloomberg into debates continues to generate obvious favoritism and the superdelegates deny him the nomination, his followers will stay home, or possibly vote for a third party.

Blacks are being aggressively courted by Trump

The State of the Union address scared the pants and skirts off a lot of the smarter Democrats. Van Jones is speaking out. President Trump's question, "What have you got to lose?," has no good answer precisely because the party line of the Democrats is that blacks continue to be oppressed and have nothing. As Nobel Prize laureate Bob Dylan sang, "When you've got nothing, you've got nothing to lose."

With Biden in flames, who is going to motivate the high turnout and support that Democrats need in order to win?

The Democrat party is being purchased by the sixth richest man in the world

Cory Booker and Kamala Harris weren't able to get the rules changed in order to stay on the debate stage, but Michael Bloomberg did. And it is no coincidence that he has donated a hundred million dollars already and will finance the party with unlimited (an any practical sense) funding.

Biden's collapse makes Bloomberg much more likely to either gain the nomination himself or pick a puppet (Steve Bannon says it will be Hillary Clinton, who certainly has a price) to become the standard-bearer.

This so obviously a matter of an oligarch buying political power that motivating a voter base powered by resentment of the rich for 90 years will be impossible.

As Glenn Reynolds always warns, "don't get cocky." But do get ready to exploit these faults in the solidarity of the Democrats' coalition.