Battle for Zendikar is here which means the 11 weeks of Magic Origins season is has drawn to a close. As has become customary I am going to take a look at the data and see what conclusions can be drawn and predictions (sure to go wrong) can be made.

The story for the past seven weeks has been shift to three round events from four round Daily’s. This change, designed to lower the cost barrier to playing Pauper, had a profound effect on the cartography of the format. Truncating the tournament a round earlier means that some of the decks that heavily populated the 3-1 bracket now go unsung. Currently only the 3-0 decks get published so an early loss dooms a player to anonymity. Delver and Stompy - two of the most popular decks in the format - would often finish with a loss. As such these decks have seen their numbers dwindle in recent weeks. While this trend was not enough to knock either of these decks out of the top five in volume, they are appearing once or twice per week instead of per event. On the other side of the fence there are Esper Combo and Mono-Black Control. These decks did not see the same decline as Delver and Stompy.

Digging deeper, we may see some non-metagame factors influencing these results. Now that fewer prizes on the line it makes sense the preferred decks for grinders would see a decline. Both Stompy and Delver fit this mold as they were heavily favored by players who would want to finish 3-1 or better to break even or come out ahead due to prizes. That incentive has vanished. It is not as if these decks are simply no longer being played, but it appears that they have fewer pilots of the same caliber, meaning they show up less.

Mono-Black Control may also have something to do with the changing landscape. The deck is remarkably consistent. While all decks need to draw their spells in a specific order, MBC is less vulnerable to out of sequence draws than Delver and Stompy. Additionally MBC’s removal matches up well against Stompy and at times can overload Delver. The best home for Gray Merchant of Asphodel, MBC has a game plan that can be repeatedly relatively easily and can use Gray Merchant, Corrupt, and Gurmag Angler to end games in short order. Resilient to hate, it makes sense that MBC continues to perform at a high level.

Esper Combo also remains a contender. Already fairly strong against the field, the round reduction aides Esper Combo due to the amount of hate needed to effectively answer the deck. With fewer rounds it is less likely for Cloud of Faeries combo to encounter the proper sequence of sideboard cards to keep it down.

The three round events also bodes well for attrition based value decks. Mulldrifter once reigned supreme in Pauper but the format sped up to a point where paying five mana was a scary prospect. Now, it seems, that with a less grinder-orientated tournament setting that more plodding decks have been allowed to reemerge. This is no more evident than in the surge in Kuldotha Jeskai in the past few weeks.

A deck based around the manipulation of Ichor Wellspring and its ilk, these decks make the most of every card they cast. My issue with them is they spend three cards to try and build a Mulldrifter. While I do not expect this style of deck to vanish anytime soon their presence indicates that the format has slowed down somewhat, indicating that other midrange decks may see play in the future. Combine this with the expensive cards from Battle for Zendikar and Pauper may be entering a time where the format moves into the right hand lane.

The seasonal stats for Origins are broken down thusly. We will be looking at every deck that amassed over 3% of the total winner’s field. That means 17 appearances over 11 weeks, or just over one deck per seven day span. Out of 57 different archetypes, nine different decks beat this threshold. Just missing out are Burn (13 appearances), Hexproof (14) and Simic Combo (16). The most notable deck here is Hexproof, as it made a strong run at the end of the season to catapult itself into the conversation.

We will also be looking at average wins. Now this stat may seem odd as the final seven weeks we only saw decks with three wins. This number is being presented to show which decks performed well in the three weeks of the season. The further north of 3 a deck has in this column, the more 4-0 finishes it accrued in that span. Similarly we will be looking at expected metagame volume. Based off of Frank Karsten’s math, it also relies heavily on the first month of the season to indicate any difference from average. Unless the reporting of Pauper changes in the future, these stats will be retired. Finally we will be looking at the overall percentage of wins earned by a given deck.

On to the rankings.

Archetype Popularity % Win Average Win Earned% Expected% Delver 13.93% 3.15 14.09% 13.45% Esper Combo 11.07% 3.18 11.28% 11.28% Stompy 10.18% 3.04 9.91% 9.66% MBC 8.04% 3.13 8.08% 8.51% Izzet Blitz 6.79% 3.16 6.87% 7.03% Affinity 6.61% 3.22 6.82% 6.96% Dimir Delver 5.71% 3.09 5.67% 5.41% Kuldotha Jeskai 4.11% 3.13 4.12% 4.12% Goblins 3.93% 3.09 3.89% 3.85%

So what does this all mean?

Delver, Stompy, Dimir Delver, and Goblins all performed better than their results would indicate. These decks are not bad, but rather had more 3-1 finishes early in the season. Because of this they trended down as the season progressed. The anomaly here is straight Delve. While over performing compared to its popularity it still earned the greatest win share and has the fourth highest average win score.

Basically, do not sleep on Delver.

Kuldotha Jeskai performed about as well as expected. This is most likely due in part to its surge in the latter half of the season. Because of this it did not have the same discrepancy of scores that decks from the earlier portion of the season and its numbers look relatively flat.

Esper Combo, MBC, Izzet Blitz, and Affinity all underperformed. Mono-Black Control stands out with a nearly half a percentage point delta from its actual volume to what should be expected based upon wins.

Affinity gets a nod for the best average win score. This is deceiving in that it put up eight 4-0s in the first three weeks and then did not do much else. Because of this its win average seems artificially inflated.

Another interesting case is Izzet Blitz, which disappeared for a few weeks and was replaced with a slower version of the deck (replacing cheap instants with slightly more expensive sorceries). The final few weeks saw the return of Temur Battle Rage and had Blitz reassert itself as one of the better decks in the format.

Looking forward Delver, Esper Combo, and MBC all seem to be in the position to continue their success. I would also anticipate seeing attrition decks in the vein of Kuldotha Jeskai gain a foothold. Gurmag Angler is likely to be a huge player in the upcoming season, as it has been since it arrived. As a reaction to this I think that Complete Disregard is a card that should see play in the upcoming weeks. The devoid instant can hit nearly every card in the above decks while also making Gurmag Angler harder to cast. If the format slows down I could see Scour from Existence getting some serious looks and potentially Ruin Processor as a top end that only costs one UrzaTron.

If this does come to pass then Stompy should see a push in the latter half of the season. Stompy has gotten a new removal sink in Blisterpod and the potential for explosive wins with Swell of Growth and Groundswell makes it easy to imagine a more all-in style of Rancor deck.

I for one am going to use this shift to start playing a deck inspired by Rkkxilol:





I’m having a blast playing this version of Jund. The discard package has migrated to the sideboard to make space for a different suite of creatures. Mortuary Mire helps this deck regrow a threat while Invasive Species does yeoman’s work. And hey, it lets me play Satyr Wayfinder.

How are you going to approach the new Pauper?

Keep slingin’ commons-

-Alex

SpikeBoyM on Magic Online

@nerdtothecore

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