If I could presciently predict the stock market, I wouldn’t be writing for a living, but the recent market correction, which has political pundits fulminating and Wall Street prognosticators trembling, should be viewed for what it really is: a good thing. Sure, the stock markets are in free fall, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down around 10 percent from its high this past January, and a top Chinese tech executive is sitting in the clink somewhere in British Columbia. But the markets had become frothy. The bull market is now close to 10 years old, which you would think would lead to less euphoria and a more rational approach among the investment class. In all, this humbling shouldn’t elicit freakish panic. In some ways, this was all inevitable.

Another way to look at it, however, is that the market has become the ultimate Donald Trump bullshit detector. Those familiar with Trump’s pre-presidential career knew that he was a questionable business practitioner, a dubious trust-funder who had bankrupted at least four of his casino companies. We knew that his airline was garbage, and that he made a terrible investment in the Plaza Hotel. But the U.S. equities market, which can sometimes react more out of sense of hope than to experience, was slow on the uptake. The Dow powered up something like 50 percent after Election Day, because so many others believed that Trump was a frugal, tax-cutting conservative who would drain the swamp and repatriate jobs through immigration and tax policies. And for a time, he appeared to be playing the role on television. Trump temporarily prevented Carrier from closing an Indiana plant. He reduced the corporate tax rate from 35 to 21 percent, helping to boost the G.D.P. growth rate to 3.5 percent for a quarter—what the economist Larry Summers called a “sugar high.”

Now, at the end of 2018, the reality of Trumpism is finally, finally beginning to hit home. The tax-rate reduction was an artificial boost to corporate profits, with little of that upside going to employees. The reality of the tax cuts is also coming home to roost in the forms of a trillion-dollar budget deficit and a national debt of $21.5 trillion. It turns out the guy who once boasted about being the “king of debt,” and who relies on other people’s money, is treating the government like he ran his business. It’s worth remembering that the federal government is the largest borrower in the world; rising interest rates on a rising debt base will naturally increase deficits. More important, Trump is a high-beta president, which may be kind of fun if you are a hedge-fund manager making a big bet on the direction of the euro; but when you have your short fingers on the nuclear codes, it’s a lot less humorous or worth the gamble. The risks are very high, and so far the rewards have been very few indeed. According to the markets, the risk of the Donald no longer justifies the reward of the Donald. What the market is also saying, I think, is that his presidency is over, not that a recession is approaching.

One of the main things that has kept Trump afloat these past two years has been the rising stock market and its penchant for making new highs. And Trump knows that, too; that’s why he keeps referring to the stock market as a referendum on his performance as president. What the stock market is really telegraphing, as it sinks lower and lower, day after day, is the obvious: he’s fired. Investors should sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.

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