House GOP shrugs off immigration pressure from Latinos

Rebekah L. Sanders | The Arizona Republic

PHOENIX -- When Democratic U.S. Rep. Ed Pastor tries to persuade Republican colleagues to back comprehensive immigration reform, he says the responses are predictable.

Many confide they'd like to support it, but given that a majority of GOP House members represent white districts, they lack a large Hispanic constituency clamoring for change. If they were to support reform, they fear, a primary challenger would use it as a club.

It's a situation that supporters of immigration reform say they run into time and again.

The simple political math is that while Republicans on a national scale want to court Latinos, members of the House GOP represent few of those Latino voters.

Across Capitol Hill, U.S. senators serve entire states, many of which have large Hispanic populations. And with Latinos one of the fastest growing demographics in the country, senators foresee an increasing number of potential voters in their ranks.

In the House, by contrast, Republicans represent only one-third of the country's 33 million voting-age Hispanics, according to an Arizona Republic analysis of census data. And more than 70% of Republicans, or 169 out of 234 GOP members, represent districts where voting-age Hispanics make up less than 10% of the population.

It's no wonder then, some observers say, that comprehensive immigration reform, which sailed out of the Senate on a bipartisan vote last month, is facing a tougher time in the House.

Pastor, who represents the most heavily Hispanic district in Arizona, based in west Phoenix, said many of his Republican colleagues tell him, "Ed, I got to worry about a primary. I'll look at (immigration reform) and we'll talk, but that's a concern."

Even in Arizona, with one of the largest numbers of Hispanics in the country, nearly half, or 47%, are represented by just two congressmen: Pastor and fellow Democrat Raúl Grijalva of Tucson. Both are Latino.

The rest of Arizona's Hispanic population is spread among three House Democrats and four Republicans. Latinos of voting age make up 12% to 22% of those districts, compared with close to 60% for Pastor and Grijalva.

Groups advocating for reform are trying to persuade House Republicans to look at the big picture: the future of the party and the country.

They argue the GOP cannot focus solely on immigration issues that appeal to conservatives, such as border security and high-skilled worker visas, without also agreeing with Democrats to create a path to citizenship for the country's estimated 11 million illegal immigrants.

Advocates include typical left-leaning groups such as unions and minority coalitions, but also a broad array of interests typically allied with the right, such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and evangelical Christian pastors.

"What we are telling those politicians is they have to look for the good of the country and not the short-term political calculus," said Héctor Figueroa, a New York activist with the Service Employees International Union, which is pushing for reform. "The reality is 11 million people are here to stay."

Figueroa said Republicans risk permanently alienating Hispanics if they oppose comprehensive reform. More than two-thirds of Latino voters said they would blame the GOP if immigration reform failed, according to a poll commissioned by the union. That would translate into losing elections, big and small, he argued.

"It's going to start to have a tsunami effect," Figueroa said.

Conservative groups, however, believe the GOP can win Hispanic support without supporting the Senate bill, including its path to citizenship.

"It's conventional wisdom in Washington that Republicans have to support 'amnesty' if they ever want to win a national election again," said Dan Holler, spokesman for Heritage Action, an advocacy group based in Washington. "We don't see 'amnesty' as a silver bullet to winning Hispanic votes."

Instead, GOP lawmakers need to stop focusing on immigration, Holler said. Instead they should explain why conservative policies are good for everyone, including Latinos, he said.

"Talk about jobs, talk about the EPA, talk about 'Obamacare.' We think if they do that, then they can win votes from their constituents, and it doesn't matter what demographic you slice that into," Holler said.

After the 2012 election, which saw seven in 10 Latinos vote for President Barack Obama, GOP leaders concluded that they need to build a bridge to Hispanics. Immigration reform looked like one opportunity.

"If the Latino population is unified — a big if — and they have the power to elect you, I'd expect a lot of people responding to the Latino population," said Justin Levitt, an expert on political districts at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles.

But Republican rank-and-file members of the House don't feel that pressure.

Out of 30 House districts that have a majority Hispanic population, Republicans represent just three.

On top of that, it appears in general many Americans are lukewarm on the way immigration reform is going in Washington.

Though the public largely supports elements such as border security and a path to citizenship, a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll showed, many Americans are not exactly thrilled with the Senate's comprehensive package. Forty-six percent were in favor of it and 44% against, with opponents feeling much more strongly about their views.

While the Hispanic population in House members' districts offers a "very rough proxy" for support of the Senate's comprehensive immigration bill, Levitt said, it's not a direct link.

Young volunteers from a pro-immigration group called Promise Arizona have been canvassing neighborhoods twice a week in Republican Rep. Matt Salmon's district.

"People like Matt Salmon and Trent Franks and even David Schweikert are potential votes, in our estimation," said Promise Arizona leader Petra Falcon. "They need to be reminded Latinos are engaged more than ever. And the ballot box is where people express what they care about."

But the GOP congressmen say they remain opposed.

Rep. Paul Gosar, a Republican from northern Arizona who also opposes a path to citizenship, thinks it's irrelevant how many Hispanics he represents. He said he listens to all of his constituents and that immigration crosses ethnic boundaries.

"To just listen to Hispanics would be absurd," said Gosar, whose district includes the close-to-the-border city of Yuma and is composed of 15% voting-age Hispanics. "This isn't just about Hispanics. This is about Asians, this is about Africans, this is about Indonesians. This is about the whole fabric of America and that when you are coming to this country, you are coming to the rule of law."

Though the nation's roughly 40 million immigrants come from around the world, more than half come from Latin America, census figures show.