The recent budget woes at University of Massachusetts Boston may in part be due to mismanagement and fundraising shortfalls. Yet the difficulties at UMass Boston tell another cautionary tale as well — a harbinger of a mounting strategic challenge facing many higher education institutions. With the rise in nontraditional, older students, and the advent of distance learning that is more affordable, flexible and aligned with employer needs, colleges and universities that focus on expansion of their physical campuses — including residence halls and classroom buildings — and enrollment of traditional 18-22-year-old college students do so at their own risk.

UMass Boston assumed this risk, gambled, and may have lost. Beginning in 2011, the university embarked on a 10-year expansion plan to transform from a commuter school to a traditional university. This plan included building UMass Boston’s first ever dormitory, state-of-the-art laboratories to accommodate new Ph.D programs, and a range of new buildings to replace its dilapidated red brick complex, long in need of repair. Five years in, UMass Boston is staring at a potential $30 million deficit, stagnant enrollment, lower than expected fundraising and no financial relief in sight. And now the news that UMass Boston’s chancellor, Keith Motley, will step down at the end of the academic year.