According to the Simple Rating System, which adjusts scoring margin for strength of schedule, the Redskins ended the season 1.9 points per game worse than average. The Packers, meanwhile, were 5.3 points per game above average, making Green Bay a 7.2-point favorite on a neutral field. Add in home-field advantage and that drops to 4.2 points. Using Pro Football Reference’s win probability formula, that gives Washington a 39.7 percent chance at moving on.

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From there they will face either the Arizona Cardinals (12.3 SRS) or the Carolina Panthers (8.1 SRS).

The Cardinals, despite their 30-6 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday, are the strongest team, statistically, in the playoffs. Per Football Outsiders, they ranked No. 2 for offensive efficiency and No. 3 for defensive efficiency — one of two teams (Seattle) to be ranked in the top five for both. Washington would only have a 28.4 percent chance at beating them in the division round. The Panthers would be easier, but still long odds at 39.4 percent for a Redskins’ win on the road.

But let’s say the Redskins continue their magical season and beat one of them in the division round — the other likely lurks in the NFC championship game. The probability of Washington running through that gauntlet to Super Bowl Sunday is a meager 5.6 percent, or 17-to-1 odds.

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The easiest path for Washington involves beating Green Bay and Carolina before facing the Vikings in the NFC conference game in Minnesota. That path has a 9 percent chance of occurring, or 10-to-1 odds.

The toughest path involves having to go through Green Bay, Arizona on the road and Seattle at home. That has just a 4.4 percent chance at being successful, or 21-to-1 odds.

After that, the Redskins have to beat the best the AFC has to offer.

Their best chance is against the Houston Texans. Like Washington, the Texans owned a below-average adjusted scoring margin (minus-0.8). The Redskins’ toughest opponent would be the Cincinnati Bengals who, without quarterback Andy Dalton, have managed to win two of their last three games. Over that span, the game charters at Pro Football Focus have backup A.J. McCarron rated as the 11th best passer.

Even if you aren’t a believer in the Bengals, the Redskins would have their hands full with any of the other AFC teams, which is why the betting markets give them just a 1 percent chance at being the last team standing.