UK still predicted to have most deaths in Europe, but forecast lowered from 66,000 to 37,494

A US institute that predicted deaths from Covid-19 in the UK would be the highest in Europe at 66,000 has revised down its forecasts as a result of new data.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, based at the University of Washington in Seattle, now predicts 37,494 deaths in the UK by 4 August, although it said the figure could be between 26,000 and 62,500.

Despite the lower figure, it still predicts the UK will have the highest death toll in Europe.

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Daily deaths at the peak, which the institute still says should be around 17 April, are predicted to be 1,674, or within a range of 650 to 4,000.

The IHME is the leading collector and analyst of global disease data in the world. It says it now recognises that its prediction last week of 66,000 deaths caused alarm. Models are only as good as the data that goes into them. Having included more recent figures, as the institute said it would, the picture has changed.

“IHME expects, going forward, that as the model has more data, the range of possible forecasts likely will narrow,” said a spokesman.

The 66,000 figure was disputed by scientists whose modelling of the likely shape of the UK epidemic is relied on by the government. Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, said last week when the prediction was published that the IHME figures were twice as high as they should have been.

In a note on its website, the IHME explained how it came to the earlier high figures. “Our initial release of EEA country predictions included reported daily deaths through 5 April. For the United Kingdom, daily death data during the week prior to 5 April showed sharp and steadily increasing cumulative daily deaths,” it said.

“Since our last release, we have been able to include four more days of reported daily deaths for the UK (6, 7, 8, 9 April).” A slower rate of increase in deaths, which will have been due to the physical distancing measures taking effect, and better data on what happened in other places in the world where epidemics had peaked, “has resulted in notably lower average projections for the UK,” it said.

It had also received updated information on bed capacity and ICU capacity, it said, and had reduced its forecasts on shortages of those.

Italy is forecast to have the second highest death toll, at 20,000. Spain and the Netherlands are predicted to have 18,000 each and France around 16,000.

“Of countries with the highest reported or projected peak of daily Covid-19 deaths, three – Italy, Spain, and France – appear to have potentially experienced their peaks. Other European countries with relatively high daily Covid-19 deaths that may have already peaked include Belgium (peak on 7 April, 403 deaths) and Germany (8 April, 254 deaths).

“Switzerland, which is not part of the EEA, currently has a predicted peak of 124 deaths (estimate range of 9 to 454) on about 4 May. As increasingly more data becomes available – and/or as countries adjust social distancing policies – these predictions may change,” said the IHME.