The party’s hopes hinge on come-from-behind wins in battleground races. | JAY WESTCOTT/POLITICO Doubtful forecast for GOP takeover

Even Republicans are saying it: The GOP Senate takeover they all thought was almost a sure thing a year ago now looks like a coin flip at best.

POLITICO surveyed more than a dozen top Republican strategists last week to gauge the party’s outlook for the upper chamber coming out of the conventions and into the election home stretch. None called the task impossible, but most said the path to the Senate majority is much narrower than even a few months ago.


The diminished mood is a product of unforeseen events — like Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe’s surprise retirement — and underwhelming candidates.

North Dakota and Montana, once thought to be fairly easy pickups for Republicans, have remained stubbornly close, thanks to weaker-than-expected GOP contenders and strong Democratic campaigns. Missouri’s been moved out of the sure-win column after Todd Akin’s debacle. And the GOP’s once-high hopes in New Mexico and Hawaii are fading as the party confronts daunting blue-state demographics.

It’s a marked change from the beginning of the cycle, when most GOP operatives were brimming with confidence about netting the four seats needed to wrest power from Democrats. The new, hard reality is that the party’s hopes hinge on come-from-behind wins in razor-close battleground races in Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

“Objectively, call it 50-50,” said longtime Washington power broker Charlie Black, who is confident about a three-seat gain but not sold that the party can reach four.

“Can we get there? I don’t know. Might be tough,” said Republican ad maven Doug McAuliffe, who counts Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell as a client.

“It’s no given Republicans take the Senate back,” offered American Majority President Ned Ryun. “It’s still realistic, … but it’s not a done deal or slam dunk.”

Club for Growth President Chris Chocola pegged his party’s chances at a takeover as “slightly probable.” American Conservative Union Chairman Al Cardenas acknowledged that Snowe’s retirement and the controversy that’s enveloped Akin in Missouri has curbed his optimism.

“We’ve had two changes that have raised the bar a bit,” conceded the former Florida GOP chairman.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a Washington-based GOP operative who has his hands in several races, offered a dimmer view.

“Republicans are undeniably in a worse spot than a few months ago,” he said. Former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle and former New Mexico Rep. Heather Wilson haven’t panned out, and former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp has exceeded expectations, the strategist added.

“Six months ago, I’d say Republicans ended up with a 2-seat majority. Now, I’d say dead even,” he said.

The same three battleground states poised to determine the presidency — Virginia, Ohio and Florida — are likely to tip control of the upper chamber. And like the race for the White House, Republicans trail — albeit by a smidgen — in all three.

“It probably comes down to places like Florida and Ohio. I think they’re both tough. The Republicans are going to have to do everything right, and they’re going to have to have the [political] environment to help them,” said Chocola.

Republicans are most confident about banking wins in Nebraska and Wisconsin, a pair of open seats where the ideological contrast and demographic makeup favor the GOP candidates. Former Gov. Tommy Thompson’s win in Wisconsin’s fractured Republican primary last month buoyed GOP spirits about seizing a seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl.

After those two states, it gets more dicey for Republicans.

Their next two best opportunities — in Montana and North Dakota — should be aided by Mitt Romney’s presidential coattails.

Yet Rep. Denny Rehberg in Montana and Rep. Rick Berg in North Dakota have struggled to pull away from their Democratic opponents. Sen. Jon Tester and Heitkamp have defied expectations with adept, mistake-free campaigns that have kept them within striking distance.

Republicans say both contests are still eminently winnable. But there’s a sense of unease because Rehberg and Berg are underperforming the top of the ticket. So national leaders are being forced to devote more time and resources to the states.

“You’ve got the seat in Montana that’s in play that probably shouldn’t be,” said Mark Stephens, a former executive director of the National Republican Senate Committee who served as chief strategist to Sen. Ron Johnson’s 2010 campaign. “There’s a few candidates out there now that are not as strong as they could be.”

Another potential pitfall is developing in deep red Indiana, where national Democrats have spent more than $700,000 over the summer to help keep Rep. Joe Donnelly competitive against state Treasurer Richard Mourdock.

A GOP operative tracking the race called Indiana “a pretty big concern. Donnelly has a lot of body armor. He does seem to have a patina that makes the attacks sink in less. We need a serious effort to snap that into place.”

Furthermore, most Republicans have all but conceded races in Maine and Missouri — a pair of potentially crippling losses that would’ve been unimaginable at the beginning of the year.

“A lot of people were very discouraged by the Todd Akin thing. We virtually gave away three seats last time by nominating the wrong person,” GOP pollster Whit Ayres said, referring to the party’s 2010 nominees in Delaware, Nevada and Colorado. “It’s like déjà vu all over again.”

Democrats have repeatedly hinted and Republicans have long assumed that popular independent former Maine Gov. Angus King will ultimately caucus with Nevada Sen. Harry Reid.

Barring a late decision by Akin to exit the Missouri race for a replacement, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill is now better positioned to capture a second term than ever.

“It’s difficult to see how Akin wins in that race under present circumstances,” said Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist, who has spoken to the congressman recently and is holding out hope he’ll step aside ahead in the next two weeks. “He’s an engineer. He can count.”

Polls show the party clutching to low single-digit leads in Massachusetts and Nevada, the two seats most vulnerable to a Democratic takeaway. But even the most diehard Republican operatives concede that Sen. Scott Brown could run a flawless campaign and still come up short if President Barack Obama’s Bay State margin is sweeping enough to lift Democrat Elizabeth Warren.

Even master strategist Karl Rove was caught musing to donors at the Republican National Convention about the party losing either Maine or Massachusetts. “If we lose one, it starts to get a little bit edgy. If we lose two, we’re in real difficulty,” Rove said, Bloomberg Businessweek reported.

It all means that the deadlocked race in Virginia, as well increasingly competitive contests in Ohio and Florida, will take on enhanced importance in the closing eight weeks.

The George Allen-Tim Kaine contest in Virginia hasn’t budged outside the margin of error all cycle. Two of the most recent public polls had them in a dead heat.

Meanwhile, both Ohio GOP state Treasurer Josh Mandel and Florida Rep. Connie Mack have overcome sputtering starts to claw into range against Democratic incumbent Sens. Sherrod Brown and Bill Nelson, respectively.

Polling in the Ohio and Florida races has been inconsistent, but the trend has been toward the Republicans.

Mandel, an ambitious 34-year-old, has slashed a double-digit deficit to pull close to even with the first-term Brown.

Mack’s task in the Sunshine State against Nelson is a taller order. The Republican congressman trails Nelson in fundraising and is seen as less likable, according to polls. Mack has been dogged by controversies surrounding his history of personal debt and bar fights, as well as his recent crusade against a top political reporter in Florida.

Privately, some GOP pros are fretting about Mandel and Mack.

“The money guys may like Mandel because it’s easy to raise against Brown from every corner of the party, but it’s tough to find anyone in the field who gives him much of a chance,” said another GOP strategist requesting anonymity.

Those vulnerabilities make Romney’s performance in Ohio and Florida — as well as Virginia — all the more critical for the Senate hopefuls.

“Connie Mack needs to rise to the occasion. His numbers need to move up,” Cardenas said. “But there’s a lot of money pouring into Ohio by our guys. That’s a toss-up. If Romney wins Ohio, we might win that.” said Cardenas.

“It’s easy to see that whichever presidential candidate carries Virginia, the Senate race goes with that,” added Brian Nick, a North Carolina-based GOP operative and former NRSC spokesman.

In one indication of the hyper-competitiveness of the sprawling Senate map, Democrats aren’t making bold predictions about keeping the chamber. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray has refused to play oddsmaker, while Reid has said it could go either way.

New York Sen. Chuck Schumer has gone the furthest, saying Democrats are “very likely” to hold on to power.

But the fact that some Republicans floated the prospect of a three-cycle timeframe — ending in 2014 — to return to the majority shows how much the terrain has changed.

“At the beginning of the cycle, there was a lot of optimism that the pick-ups could be substantial,” said Stephens. “I think it’s more measured now.”