In another low-scoring week, with the average score a paltry 35 points, Dimitri Payet was the jewel in our otherwise dull crown. And although the correct XI from our squad picks could have netted you 44(!) points, we are never satisfied and will continue to strive for blockbuster scores, so read on as we analyse what the bookmakers have to say about the next round of Premier League fixtures…

Defence

Team Clean Sheet Odds Implied chance Tottenham 1.91 52% Southampton 2.05 49% Man City 2.15 47% Arsenal 2.45 41% Bournemouth 2.5 40% Chelsea 2.7 37% Swansea 2.7 37% Liverpool 2.7 37% Leicester 2.75 36% Watford 3.1 32% Newcastle 3.2 31% Man Utd 3.5 29% West Ham 3.5 29% Aston Villa 3.8 26% Stoke 4.5 22% Norwich 4.6 22% West Brom 4.6 22% Everton 5.5 18% Crystal Palace 8.5 12% Sunderland 9 11%

Sitting atop the defensive rankings this week are Tottenham, with a 52% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Spurs, who have the best defence in the league (17 goals conceded in 21 games), welcome Sunderland to White Hart Lane in Saturday’s early kick off. The Black Cats have scored in each of their last 6 away games, so whilst keeping them at bay will be no easy task, Mauricio Pochettino’s men have proven this season that they are a tight defensive unit, having kept 8 clean sheets thus far.

Southampton (49%), despite their inconsistent form of late (won 2 and lost 4 in their last 6), are also fancied by the bookies to keep a clean sheet this weekend. Visitors West Brom have the joint 3rd worst attack in the league (22 goals scored in 21 games), and with the Saints registering shutouts in their last 2 home games against the potent attacks of Arsenal and Watford, further points could be just around the corner for Jose Fonte and co.

Manchester City (47%) were just 1 of 4 teams to keep a clean sheet in the midweek games, along with Everton, Leicester and the aforementioned Southampton. A home tie with a goal-shy Crystal Palace (0 goals in 3) should provide the platform for further defensive returns, whilst fellow title challengers Arsenal (41%) travel to the Britannia where “Stokealona” lie in wait. The Potters currently have the most potent attack in the league (11 goals scored in their last 6 games), so the Gunners defence may have a tough time on Sunday afternoon.

The best defences in the league over the last 6 games have been West Ham (29%) and Leicester (36%), having conceded 3 and 4 goals respectively. The Hammers travel to St James’ Park to face Newcastle, who are surprisingly the 5th highest scoring home side in the division, averaging 1.5 goals per game. The Foxes may face a slightly easier task as they travel to Midlands rivals Aston Villa, who have scored just 7 goals in 10 home games this term, although they themselves may be buoyed after a first win under Remi Garde last time out.

Defensive assets from Sunderland (11%), Crystal Palace (12%) and Everton (18%) are unfancied by the bookies given their tough trips to Tottenham, Manchester City and Chelsea respectively.

Attack

Player Goalscorer Odds Implied chance Sergio Aguero 1.8 56% Harry Kane 1.83 55% Diego Costa 2.3 43% Olivier Giroud 2.4 42% Jamie Vardy 2.62 38% Shane Long 2.75 36% Alexis Sanchez 2.9 34% Benik Afobe 2.9 34% Odion Ighalo 2.9 34% Daniel Sturridge 3 33% Theo Walcott 3 33% Dele Alli 3.1 32% Christian Benteke 3.12 32% Aleksandar Mitrovic 3.15 32% Kevin de Bruyne 3.2 31% Romelu Lukaku 3.2 31% Riyad Mahrez 3.2 31% Troy Deeney 3.5 29% Wayne Rooney 3.65 27% Enner Valencia 3.65 27% Andre Ayew 3.75 27% Yaya Toure 3.75 27% Roberto Firmino 3.75 27% Geoginio Wijnaldum 3.75 27% Jordan Ayew 3.85 26% Dimitri Payet 3.9 26% Willian 4 25% Anthony Martial 4 25% Bojan 4.2 24% Dieumerci Mbokani 4.25 24% Aaron Ramsey 4.4 23% Marko Arnautovic 4.75 21% Saido Berahino 4.75 21% Connor Wickham 5 20% Jermain Defoe 5 20% Ross Barkley 6 17%

Despite not scoring against Everton on Wednesday (quite the unexpected 0-0 draw), Sergio Aguero once again tops the attacking rankings according to the bookmakers with a 56% chance of scoring against Crystal Palace. Although his opponents have one of the best defences in the league (0.95 goals per game conceded), City and Aguero are a difficult beast to tame at The Etihad, and the Argentine superstar will be looking for his 8th home league goal of the campaign. With Kevin de Bruyne (31%) and Yaya Toure (27%) also amongst City’s attacking riches, the Eagles back line will have to be fully focused come 3pm Saturday.

Harry Kane (55%) and Diego Costa (43%) also blanked on Wednesday, but they sit high in the bookies estimations as they face the leaky defences of Sunderland (1.95 goals per game conceded) and Everton (1.4 goals per game conceded) respectively. Opposite numbers Jermain Defoe (20%), who has scored 5 in his last 2 games, and Romelu Lukaku (31%), 15 league goals this season, represent the best chances for the Black Cats and the Blues.

Olivier Giroud (42%), off the back of his brace which took his league tally to 12 for the season, faces a Stoke side who have been resilient at home this season (10 goals conceded in 10 games). Alexis Sanchez (34%) scored 2 in 2 against the Potters last season and will, as always, represent a threat if he can prove his fitness.

Elsewhere, alluring options include Andre Ayew (27%), who notched his 7th of the season last time out, against a Watford defence on the slide (6 conceded in 3) and Dimitri Payet (26%), who made a goalscoring return to the starting XI in midweek, facing a Newcastle side with the 2nd worst defence in the league (38 goals conceded). Finally, Roberto Firmino (27%) comes into our thinking following a superb brace in Liverpool’s 3-3 draw with Arsenal. The Reds face fierce rivals Manchester United, who have let in 7 goals in their last 3 away games, on Sunday.

After taking into account all of the above information, our recommended squad for this gameweek is…

Goalkeepers: Joe Hart and Kasper Schmeichel

Defenders: Virgil van Dijk, Branislav Ivanovic, Robert Huth, Toby Alderweireld and Aaron Cresswell.

Midfielders: Roberto Firmino, Riyad Mahrez, Dimitri Payet, Kevin de Bruyne and Dele Alli.

Forwards: Sergio Aguero, Harry Kane and Odion Ighalo.

Captain: Dimitri Payet

Vice-captain: Kevin de Bruyne

Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter.

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