Mr Danby dismissed the survey's findings, saying no independent mainstream polling had placed Labor third in the seat. Michael Danby hands out his how to vote cards on election day. The Labor MP has rebuffed a directive from party headquarters that he preference the Greens ahead of the government, and in parts of the electorate distributed a how-to-vote card that places Liberal candidate Owen Guest ahead of Ms Hodgins-May. He defended his decision to prefer the Liberals on social media earlier this year by saying it was "purely symbolic" as his preferences would not be distributed. Asked which candidate they were most likely to vote for, 42 per cent of 1357 voters surveyed between Wednesday and Saturday backed Mr Guest.

Ms Hodgins-May was supported by 27 per cent, ahead of Mr Danby on 25. Six per cent said they would vote "other". When that 6 per cent were asked who they would preference, the three-party split became Liberal 45 per cent, Greens 30 per cent, Labor 25 per cent. The poll has a 4 per cent margin of error, and was weighted based on population estimates from the 2011 Census and the last federal election. Based on these numbers, the Liberals would need only about one in five Labor preferences to take the seat. Mr Danby accused the Greens of conducting a "self-serving and unreliable" push poll. "My office has received numerous complaints from residents in the community that the Greens' robo-calls were asking questions proceeded by deceitful statements about my position on numerous issues, including a false statement that I do not support marriage equality," he said.

Lonergan Research chief Chris Lonergan denied that marriage equality was mentioned before people were asked how they would vote. "It's absolutely untrue," he said. Ms Hodgins-May said the poll showed ALP preferences could be decisive. "If Labor fails to rein in Michael Danby then they run the real risk of handing the seat to the Liberal party, which could be pivotal in who forms government in a tight election," she said. But Mr Guest said the seat remained a three-way race. He said the flow of Labor preferences if it fell to third was unclear as Mr Danby was distributing two how-to-vote cards, placing the Liberals ahead of the Greens for the Jewish community in and around Caulfield, and the Greens ahead of the Liberals in other parts of the electorate. "He's painting it as if he's standing up to the ALP to his Jewish constituents when in fact he's playing both sides," Mr Guest said. Mr Danby said his supporters were "assisting voters to allocate their preferences as they choose".

Labor has held the bayside seat, which takes in South Melbourne, Albert Park, St Kilda and Elsternwick, since 1906. Mr Danby has been the member for 18 years. His margin was reduced to 3.6 per cent in 2013, when Greens preferences lifted him above the rising Liberal vote. The MP's website shows the official Labor how-to-vote card for this election, authorised by Victorian Labor secretary Noah Carroll, which preferences the Greens at 5 and the Liberals at 7. But a card seen by Fairfax Media, authorised by Mr Danby, places Ms Hodgins-May at 7 and Mr Guest at 5. The card placing the Liberal candidate higher was handed out by Mr Danby at an early voting booth.

Use the slider to compare the official Labor flyer with the flyer Labor MP Michael Danby has been handing out to voters. His defiance of the national executive has deeply angered ALP officials. Some in the party have said it was equivalent to a Labor member running against an endorsed ALP candidate. Greens national co-convener Giz Watson has written to Labor national secretary George Wright saying that Mr Danby was in breach of a written agreement between the two parties. "I believe this will have a material impact on the election, and could result in a Liberal government – an outcome neither of us want," Ms Watson wrote. When quizzed about the incident in the past, Mr Danby has defended his stance by citing Ms Hodgins-May boycott of a Jewish candidates' forum, saying it made it impossible for many of his supporters to give the party a higher preference than the Liberals.