LAS VEGAS — Ted Cruz knows he'll be a center of attention, if not the center of attention, at the fifth Republican debate here in Nevada Tuesday. In the first GOP debate, back in August, questions went to Donald Trump, and Ben Carson, and Marco Rubio, and Jeb Bush, and Trump again before moderators got around to Cruz. (The first question: "How can you win in 2016 when you're such a divisive figure?") It won't be that way this time, with Cruz now leading the RealClearPolitics average of polls in Iowa and in second place to Trump nationally.

The Cruz camp expects attacks to come from Trump, from Rubio, and perhaps a few others. Apart from Trump, whose jabs can come from anywhere — he calls Cruz is "a bit of a maniac" — it's likely most of the criticism will be on national security grounds, with Rubio likely to repeat charges that Cruz is an "isolationist" who voted to "weaken U.S. intelligence," who opposes funding American troops, and would cut aid to Israel.

As the debate approaches, the Cruz team seems unconcerned. They feel Cruz can defend himself toe-to-toe with Rubio on the facts of the issues, and, in a larger sense, they're confident Republicans simply will not buy the idea that Cruz is weak on national defense.

Cruz insiders point to the new Des Moines Register poll, in which Cruz came out on top when Iowa Republicans were asked which candidate they believe will be the best commander in chief. Thirty-four percent said Cruz would make the best commander in chief, compared to 25 percent for Trump and 18 percent for Rubio. In addition, Cruz outscored Rubio, 32 to 13, on the question of who can best combat Islamic terrorism.

The campaign believes Cruz can use the skills he has put to good use in earlier debates — he has a sense of when not to talk and when to talk — to capture a middle ground in the national security conversation. He portrays himself as tough about getting the bad guys — "We'll rebuild our military. We'll kill the terrorists," Cruz says in a new video — but he also expresses caution about engaging in military adventurism and nation building. Cruz believes there's a Republican, and a general election, sweet spot out there, made up of voters who want to destroy the Islamic State but don't want another Iraq.

Cruz doesn't do much in the 24 or 48 hours before a debate. He has just one event, an editorial board interview, scheduled for Monday, and nothing for Tuesday in the hours before airtime. (Both Rubio and Trump have scheduled Las Vegas rallies for Monday.) Cruz's staff puts extraordinary faith in the instincts he has honed through his legal and political career, and they mostly leave him alone before a debate.

So far in the campaign, Cruz has made a talking point of not attacking some of his rivals — a remarkable approach for a man who would win hands-down the title of most divisive member of the United States Senate. Under a hotter spotlight Tuesday, Team Cruz believes he can defend himself and make his points while at the same time not getting down into the weeds with his attackers. It's a strategy that has worked in the past, but on Tuesday Cruz will no longer be one of the pack. He'll be a front-runner — and a target.