Early voting is surging in Central Indiana. Here are 3 reasons why.

John Tuohy | IndyStar

Show Caption Hide Caption How to vote in Indiana before Election Day You don't have to be at the polls on Election Day to cast your vote in Indiana. Here's how you can vote early at a polling site or vote by mail if you won't be able to attend.

If early voting is an accurate barometer of interest in an election, then voters in Central Indiana are historically hyped for this year’s midterm Nov. 6.

Residents in Hamilton County are casting ballots at a rate 10 times higher than four years ago and almost as high as in the 2016 presidential election. Similarly, Marion and Johnson counties are on pace for early voting totals far higher than in 2014.

“These numbers are striking … eye-popping,” said Robert Dion, a professor of political science at the University of Evansville. “You normally do not see this kind of intense interest in a midterm.”

Voting started in single sites in all three counties Oct. 10 and will be expanded next week to satellite locations.

U.S. Senate race, Kavanaugh weigh on Indiana voters

Unlike in 2014, Dion and political operatives note, Indiana this year is the focus of one of the tightest and most pivotal U.S. Senate races in the country and voters are motivated by the contentious confirmation battle of Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Hovering over all of that is the divisive election of President Donald Trump in 2016 and passions it has stirred on both sides.

“For Democrats, it comes down to one word, ‘Trump’,” said Joe Weingarten, chairman of the Hamilton County Democratic Party.

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Hamilton County Election Administrator Kathy Richardson said Kavanaugh and the Senate race between incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly and Republican Mike Braun “have piqued interest in this election cycle.”

Dion said voters feel empowered by the state’s pivotal role in the battle for the Senate, which polls show is essentially a dead heat.

“We are in the unusual position of having the closest Senate race, one in which Indiana would determine the future of the Senate,” Dion said. “When races are this close, it makes everyone feel like their vote matters. When they aren’t close and you know what the result will be, both sides don’t even bother going out."

Early voting way up in Hamilton, Marion, Johnson counties

In Hamilton County, 3,084 votes were cast in person in the first five days compared to 356 during that time four years ago. In Marion County, 2,190 people voted in person, compared to 552 in 2014. In Johnson County, 2,291 votes were cast in the first five days, more than half of the county's early voting total of 3,870 four years ago.

Hamilton County Republican Party Chairwoman Laura Campbell, as well as Weingarten, said the Kavanaugh confirmation led to a spike in calls to party headquarters.

"They wanted to engage, to start making phone calls, picking up lawn signs, whatever else they could to help," Campbell said. "But there is also interest in the Senate. I think it is good that people are so engaged."

“I’ve had at least two dozen people call me and ask for Donnelly lawn signs,” Weingarten said. “That is a very high number in a Republican county like this.”

Hamilton County is the state's fourth-biggest, and by many measures its wealthiest, and it leans heavily Republican. Hamilton County voters favored Trump by a 56 percent to 36.7 percent margin over Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, and the county is seen by state party leaders as central to their fortunes this fall.

Several issues fuel early voting spike

A variety of factors can help explain higher early voting in Hamilton County.

One of them, county Republicans contend, is the Kavanaugh confirmation. Campbell points to internal party research that suggests the issue is getting conservatives to the polls and is mitigating the early-voting edge that Democrats often have enjoyed over Republicans.

The research Campbell cites shows an even split in turnout, with 34 percent apiece for Democrats and Republicans, along with 32 percent for independents or swing voters.

Another distinction from 2014, experts noted, is the fact that 2018 is a Senate election year. Such years tend to bring out more voters, not unlike presidential elections.

Lastly, there is just the idea of early voting itself. Both parties have been encouraging it in mailings and phone calls to residents, said Ed Feigenbaum, who publishes the Indiana Legislative Insight newsletter.

"There has been a tremendous push by everyone to get people to the polls early," he said. One benefit for the parties, he said, is it depresses the impact of last-minute scandals, or the "October surprise," because so many people a have already voted.

Whatever the cause, it's apparently working, said Susie Misiniec, elections administrator for Johnson County.

"We are pretty overwhelmed. It caught us off-guard. We are busy nonstop," Misiniec said. "We are starting to wonder if we are going to have anything left to do on Election Day or if everyone will have voted by then.

Call IndyStar reporter John Tuohy at 317 444-6418. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.

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