JOSH BUCHANAN

June 1, 2018

The monthly statistics for May are now available and according to the SRAR’s numbers, sales numbers continued to show some serious volatility when comparing to last year. The month of May produced just 365 sales which is a decline of 60 units compared to May of last year which equates to a decrease of 14%. The number of new listings continued its steady trend of moderate declines compared to last year. This May produced 939 new listings which is down by 104 units compared to 1043 posted last year. There were significantly fewer numbers in both the sales and listings categories but the proportion was weak enough to reduce the sales-to-listings ratio by 2 points compared to last year from 0.41 to 0.39.

Compared to the 5-year averages for the month of May, this year produced 67 fewer sales but just 34 fewer listings which created a sales-to-listings ratio of 0.39, down significantly from the 5-year average of 0.45 which is already a weak number. The average sales price is also noticeably weak, falling over $20,000 compared to the next lowest May in the past 5 years.

For the year-to-date numbers up until the end of May, 2018 has produced just 1,341 sales which is down by 131 compared to last year and down an incredible 516 units compared to the peak in 2014. Those are 9% and 28% drops respectively. Listing numbers have also taken significant declines compared to last year and the peak year which was 2015. This year was down by 593 units or 14% compared to last year and 716 units or 17% compared to the peak in 2015. The sales-to-listings ratio is currently up 2 points from last year when it was 0.36 at this time. The average sales price for 2018 is down by roughly $14,000 compared to the same time last year.

When looking at 5-year averages for YTD numbers, sales are down 280 units and listings are down 417 units. This calculates to a sales-to-listings ratio worsening by 4 points compared to the 5-year average. With the YTD average sales price currently sitting just under $335,000 and the 5-year average sitting just below $350,000, it means we nearly have a $15,000 decline in the average sales price so far this year.

Conclusion:

We’ve been seeing a very slow and steady decline in the market with lots of reluctance to properly correct and return to balance. What continues to make the market unpredictable is the volatility in sales numbers. March saw a decrease in 27% for sales compared to last year while April jumped up 7% and now May has dropped 14%. If and when sales numbers finally settle down and reach some kind of consistency, it will then be much easier to determine what to expect in the market. If we see more 27% drops, we’re in big trouble but if we see more 7% increases then the market should slowly start to improve assuming the trend in listings continues on the same path.

Josh Buchanan isn’t employed by anyone, is not compensated in any form for this blog and does not benefit in any way from your real estate decisions.