You might think it obvious: If you leave your keys unattended in the car with the engine running in any populated area, there’s a decent chance an opportune thief might call it a free lunch.

But apparently not.

While car thefts in general are on the decline in the United States over the past decade, one type of theft is actually on the rise: Cars stolen because the keys were left inside.

A new report by the National Insurance Crime Bureau released today found that between Jan. 1, 2012, and Dec. 31, 2014, 126,603 vehicles were reported stolen using a key, with 33,954 in 2012, 42,430 in 2013, and 44,828 in 2014 –– now 6.7 percent of total car thefts.

In these instances, there was a sizable rise in numbers during the winter months, as owners were more likely to leave their keys in the ignition to warm the car up prior to driving. (The summer months also see an upturn in vehicles stolen as owners crank up the air-con to cool it down, but not to same degree as in winter.)

“Am I shocked by these numbers?” said NICB President and CEO Joe Wehrle. “Not one bit. In fact, I’m sure the numbers are probably higher, because we are only able to determine the thefts where the car was recovered with the keys inside, or where someone admitted they left the keys in the car or the ignition. Many times that is not admitted in the police report or the insurance claim.”

California topped the list of states for vehicle thefts with keys, amassing 19,597 over the three-year period, versus Texas in second with 8,796. While it belies the theory of cold-weather starting as a major cause, those two states have the highest rates of car theft overall. In all but 9 percent of these cases, the vehicle were recovered and returned to their owners –– unless you live in and around Detroit, an area in which there were twice as many unrecovered vehicle thefts compared to any other place in the country.

As one might expect, the majority of thefts were involving older cars; after 2004, that number drops substantially due to technology like remote start becoming a more common feature. The report also said that the most likely day for thieves to strike is on a Saturday and a Monday.

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Just last Monday, in fact, a 2001 Toyota Corolla was stolen from a family’s driveway in Fairfield, Calif. The car was switched on at 4.45 am to warm it up, with a sleeping eight-year-old boy strapped in the back by his father, Paul Guzman. Guzman then returned inside his house for a few minutes to grab his stuff, but when he came back he found his Corolla and son had vanished. Fortunately, upon discovering the sleeping boy, the car thief abandoned the machine a few miles down the road.

Maybe we, as people, trust too much. Perhaps those of us driving older cars assume we’ll be less of a target. Or maybe it’s because we hate being cold.

Whatever the reason, an astonishing amount of cars every year get stolen due to people leaving the keys in the ignition or in places like the cupholder. You’d think we’d know better, but evidently we don’t. And every year, the tally continues to rise.

