Where might Trump triumph in Europe?

Now, this American president supposedly isn’t the Continent’s favorite cup of tea (or whatever the beverage of European choice is). A Pew Research Center survey found Trump to be "broadly unpopular" worldwide, with 22 percent of those polled trusting him to do the right thing. Barely a fifth of Europeans are confident Trump will do the right thing, and that includes the Trumpophiles in Russia.

But those numbers don't tell the whole story. If you look at his most recognizable personal characteristics (forceful and charismatic to his backers; arrogant and intolerant to the other side) and at his signature policies (opposed to free trade and open borders for migrants, skeptical on regulation and the nanny state, my-nation-first everything), then Trumpism holds more appeal in the Old World than the European chattering classes think.

To determine just how much appeal Trump might have in 47 European countries, POLITICO introduces the Trumpability Index.

There is a method to this not wholly unscientific ranking of where a European Donald Trump would have the best chance of being elected. We came up with 13 categories associated with his brand of politics. Yearning for change is one, yearning for a strongman another. An adversarial approach to free media and an aggressive approach to slashing regulations are there too. Then we assessed how favorably each country would respond to each characteristic, assigned scores based on a ratings system between 1 and 10, and did the math.

Envelopes, please. Here are your top 10 Trump Country countries in Europe:

1. The Czech Republic

The Czech Republic tops the Trump chart: Like in the States, dissatisfaction with traditional political parties (the original right-left parties, the ODS and CSSD, barely clear 10 percent in recent polls) has created an opportunity. If someone like Donald Trump were to run for office, they'd have a strong chance of being elected — and in fact, someone does. Andrej Babiš, who's likely to be elected prime minister in October, has drawn repeated comparisons to Trump in the past, including in a 2015 POLITICO article. Some similarities are obvious: Babiš is a billionaire businessman with no prior political experience who sells himself as an outsider; he’s renowned for making politically incorrect comments, many about migrants coming into the country; and he’s advocated for a hard-line immigration policy that involves not a wall but a “fortress” that keeps migrants out.

But even in subtler policy-based ways, the Czech Republic’s likely next leader has Trumpesque qualities: Babiš supports an increase in defense spending, but was hesitant to increase health care funding when he was finance minister in 2016, making him one of the few European leaders we came across who had anything in common with Trump’s health care policy. And Babiš' response to being compared to Trump did nothing to tone down the impression of him as arrogant. The difference between him and Trump, he has said, is that “Trump has gone bankrupt several times ... I [have] not.”

2. Italy

Before there was Donald Trump, there was Silvio Berlusconi: A flashy, self-obsessed media tycoon who crossed one line after another with his rhetoric, and each time blamed the “hostile media” or "communist prosecutors" for any negative coverage. In the same way the Teflon Donald continually eludes the consequences others anticipate from his "war against political correctness," Berlusconi exudes irreverence without losing support. Before there was the leaked tape of Trump bragging that “when you’re a star … you can do anything” to women, there was a wiretap of Berlusconi boasting that he “only did eight” women the night before, despite having a queue of 11.

While not currently in power — he was convicted for tax fraud and expelled from the senate in 2013 — Berlusconi is making a comeback. When the election takes place in 2018, it’s looking like the three-time former prime minster will be integral to forming a new government. And Trump would be popular in Italy for the same reason Berlusconi might be able to return to politics: A public that's tired of traditional politicians and ready to reject elitist political parties in favor of self-proclaimed populists.

In terms of policy, Trump’s stances line up with Matteo Salvini's Northern League, the far-right party that rivals Berlusconi's party in the polls. Salvini is an unabashed Trump fan, and he too advocates for a hard-line immigration policy, a simpler tax code and a defense of his country's national identity against outsiders.



3. Russia

Russia is the only country in Pew's survey besides Israel where confidence in the U.S. leader to do the right thing increased after Trump's election, which indicates the Russian public sees something they like in the Donald. A political victory for Trump might be possible in Russia if he strengthened his status of strongman — perhaps substituting rounds of golf for bare-chested swims — as Russia tends to prefer alpha-male behavior in the public sphere. Like Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin's popularity is extremely strong in his country's heartland and weakest in big urban centers (although the scale is different — Putin consistently enjoys approval ratings of about 80 percent, while Trump has seen historically low approval ratings of under 40 percent since May).

Putin's policies out-Trump Trump in many ways, perhaps showing what the U.S. president could accomplish if he had 18 years in power and a two-thirds majority in the legislative system. Trump seeks to project military strength; Putin has undertaken major spending to upgrade the military. Trump wants to simplify the tax system; Russia has a flat income tax rate of 13 percent for tax residents. Trump denounces anyone who disagrees with him; Putin's treatment is more deadly, with many critics of his regime dying in suspicious ways. Trump often denies facts and tells the media untruths; lying is an acceptable way of interacting with the press and constituents for Putin.

There are policy differences between the two: Putin professes to be in favor of international trade while Trump voices anti-trade rhetoric, and immigration is not a key talking point for Putin. But on balance, Trump's combination of machismo, media-denying and military aspirations would go over well in the Kremlin.

4. Turkey

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been in power as prime minister and subsequently president since 2003. Although Erdoğan, unlike Trump, is a seasoned politician, his pitch has echoes of "Making Turkey Great Again": Erdoğan promised to raise living standards in his country (a venture at which he has succeeded) and more recently to restore Turkey's Ottoman-era place as the most influential nation in the Middle East. The two leaders also share strongman tendencies and a propensity to take criticism very personally (Erdoğan has sued more than 2,000 people for insulting him), and both have sons-in-law whom they have rewarded with influential political positions (Erdoğan’s son-in-law Berat Albayrak is energy minister).

Trump and Erdoğan have overlapping core support — both appeal to religious conservatives and pander to nationalists to win elections. However, there are certain characteristics of Trump that would immediately make it difficult for him to be elected in a Muslim-majority country like Turkey: His crude comments about women would not be well-received, and his two divorces wouldn’t help him either. Trump’s isolationist immigration and trade policies would also be out of place in a country like Turkey that has used those two areas successfully as leverage with the West.

5. Hungary

Hungary has proven Donald Trump’s wall is not entirely in his imagination. The country's growing hostility toward immigration resulted in the construction of a razor wire fence along its southern border in an attempt to stop the 2015 influx of refugees.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is a love-him-or-hate-him leader, much like Trump, and their political priorities sync in more sectors than immigration: Trump's hostility toward the "fake media" pales in comparison to the treatment of the press by Orbán, who went as far as shutting down the largest opposition newspaper. Despite this, after seven years in office, Orbán's party remains the most popular in the country.

In terms of treatment of women, Trump's infamous "grab them by the pussy" comments wouldn't be the first sexist rhetoric to surface in Hungarian politics, meaning it might not be an automatic disqualifier: Orbán has no female ministers in his cabinet and, among other incidents, when asked why he fired his female ambassador to Washington, he said: "I don't deal with women's issues."

6. Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan settles midway on the Trump-scale. President Iham Aliyev and Donald Trump concord on three points: media, military and Russia. The latter’s influence on Azerbaijan stems from both its geographical proximity, and close ties between Aliyev and Putin. Russia is asserting itself more aggressively across the neighborhood, and Azerbaijan looks increasingly susceptible to Russian entreaties for collaboration. Azerbaijan’s aspiration to regional eminence has also resulted in the adoption of a Trumpesque policy of continued traditional hostilities, with Trump continuing the war in Afghanistan while Azerbaijan rattles sabers against its local enemy Armenia. Moreover, both Aliyev and Trump maintain a strained relationship with the media, the former even stepping beyond the “fake news” shield by waging an unforgiving war against any critics of the authoritarian regime, while rewarding regime-friendly reporters with free apartments. Trump's reality-bending rhetoric would serve him well in Azerbaijan; Aliyev has railed against human rights and democracy as European and American “double standards” designed to subvert the state.

Azerbaijan also earns an honorable mention for the presence of Aliyev's wife Mehriban Aliyeva, who bears a striking resemblance to Melania Trump and also happens to be vice president. However, Trump's appeal as an outsider coming in to shake up the system wouldn't be terribly effective for Azerbaijanis. Aliyev is second in a political dynasty; he and his father have led the country since the breakup of the Soviet Union, and with his party holding a political monopoly with almost all of the seats in parliament, there's no end in sight.

7. Poland

The ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) that dominates the Polish political scene, led by Jarosław Kaczyński, came to power through a Trumpian tactic: promising a voice and a sympathetic ear to rural Poles who felt that the previous centrist government had left them behind.

Trump and Kaczyński might not appear similar at first: one jets between gold hotels embossed with his name while the other conducts business in an "airless and Spartan bureau;" one tweets his every excessively punctuated thought while the other doesn't own a computer; one has had a string of beautiful wives while the other has never married and lives with two cats. But the two men have their similarities where it counts: as politicians. Both keep to themselves, befriending few foreign leaders; both expect intense personal loyalty from their inferiors; and like Trump, Kaczyński "infuriates about half the country and captivates the rest."

In Poland, Trump's biggest difficulty getting elected would be his brazen flashiness, which would be off-putting to a conservative public, and his insistence on slashing public health care, which would be wildly unpopular — PiS came to power with the promise of one of the most generous social programs in Polish history at the core of their campaign.

8. Bulgaria

Bulgaria already has a wall that Trump can only dream of.

Being tough on immigration plays well in Bulgaria, and the country built a barbed wire fence along its border with Turkey in 2014 to stem the flow of migrants from the Middle East. President Rumen Radev, a former fighter pilot, won last year’s election by vowing that he would not allow the country to turn into a “migrant ghetto.” Prime Minister Boyko Borisov also initially seemed to give his blessing to the activities of nationalist vigilantes who rounded up and intimidated refugees, but later had to tone down his support.

A burly former karate champion, Borisov can deliver macho quips straight from the Trump playbook. When asked in 2014 whether it was time for him to return to the premiership at a period of political disarray, he replied: “When there’s a winter storm, it’s the man who drives the car, because he’s more experienced.”

Much like the current White House, Bulgarian politics are also deeply and murkily interwoven with the interests of the Kremlin and Russian oligarchs.

One major difference with Trump’s America is that Bulgaria is far from protectionist in the face of foreign investment. Unlike the anti-Chinese Trump, Bulgaria has signaled its openness to Chinese investments in sectors such as transport and infrastructure.

9. Malta

The newest alumnus of the presidency of the Council of the European Union, Malta has been under scrutiny in the past six months as it saw the reelection of Joseph Muscat. His is a personality-cult character similar to Trump: he's cultivated a "father of the people" persona, is intent on rising above partisan politics to unify the country, and his book, “Joseph: The best time for the country is yet to come” echoes Trump's rallying cry to Make America Great Again. Despite being under criminal investigation for alleged corruption, Muscat won the snap election he called in June in a landslide, having demolished the opposition by claiming they were spreading malicious lies.

Trump's actual policies would be less successful in Malta than his personality. A former British colony, it enjoys a more liberal health care system and is friendly to foreigners: Muscat, although he led the anti-EU campaign during the 2003 referendum, has changed his tune. He’s also overseen an economic boom based in part on encouraging Russian oligarchs and Chinese magnates to buy Maltese passports, as well as making the island one of the top destinations for online gambling companies.

In 10th place, a tie: France and the United Kingdom

France

At first glance, the election of President Emmanuel Macron seems like the most anti-Trump move a country could make: A poised young centrist who advocates for stability and international cooperation was elected instead of a divisive far-right leader — Marine Le Pen — who supports immigration bans and isolationism.

But Macron and Trump have more in common than meets the eye. Both have experience in the private sector, Trump as a businessman and Macron as a banker. And both presented themselves as radical alternatives to traditional politics in their country. Both also have a fixation with public imagery that has led to strained relationships with the press. And while Macron presents himself as a liberal, some elements of his policies have been branded protectionist. He nationalized a shipyard to block an Italian takeover and he wants to impose more restrictions on cheap Eastern European labor.

That's not to say the two have identical approaches: Macron strives to make the presidency more dignified, declining interviews and creating distance between himself and the public, while Trump has taken the opposite tack, closing the distance between himself and his constituency by spreading his message through social media. No doubt to the relief of the French public, you'd never find Macron tweeting "JOBS!" or "covfefe."

Trump's shamelessness would probably not go over well with the French public, but his strong-handed leadership and country-first rhetoric might. The considerable traction Le Pen's far-right party gained during the presidential election campaign shows that there's a segment of the French public that would like what Trump has to say.

United Kingdom

The contemporary British political figure most like Donald Trump is probably former United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) leader Nigel Farage. Both are brash and unconventional, both cast themselves as political outsiders who play on their commercial background and both used the politics of immigration as an anchor point for their political credo.

But whatever Farage’s successes (he has been an MEP since 1999 and UKIP was a significant factor in making the Brexit referendum happen) he ultimately found little political success in the U.K. He stood for parliament seven times and lost on every occasion — although the British electoral system didn’t do him any favors. That puts a big question mark over whether a British version of the American president would be successful.

Brexit itself was driven in part by the same economic disaffection and isolationist instincts that led to Trump’s election in the U.S. — but there are differences. Most Brexiteers are advocates of more free trade, not less. Also, on health care, the British love of the NHS would mean a Trumpian health system would be a non-starter with the public. Trump’s personal characteristics, too, would be major a turn-off. While his appeals for radical change might get a hearing, the British public is generally wary of strongmen.

Siegfried Mortkowitz, Jacopo Barigazzi, Zia Weise, Jan Cienski, Lili Bayer, Christian Oliver, Harry Cooper, James Randerson and Andrew Gray contributed to this story.