Sydney is becoming a tale of two cities, with the western suburbs expected to shoulder most of the growth in housing and population and the eastern suburbs remaining comparatively low density.

The new District Plans for Sydney created by the Greater Sydney Commission, which divide the harbour city into six different zones, reveal a very different idea for the future development of communities depending on the direction you live in.

In the five years to 2021, Randwick, Waverley and Woollahra local government areas will between them build an additional 3,800 homes. These areas are within 10 kilometres of Sydney’s CBD.

By comparison, more than 30 kilometres west of the Sydney CBD is the City of Blacktown. This region is expecting an additional 13,950 homes – nearly four times that number.

Urban Taskforce chief executive Chris Johnson said the eastern suburbs already have a “surplus of amenity but relatively low-rise development” with development-friendly zoning needed across all of Sydney “not just the west”.

“I think there’s some misunderstanding of the natural growth of cities,” he said.

“The hotspot will still be Sydney CBD and the best jobs will still be there. There needs to be some rebalancing back to the east.”

By 2036, the Central District, which includes the eastern suburbs, Sydney CBD and some of the inner west, is forecast to build an additional 157,500 new dwellings by 2036.

But more focus will be on the West Central District, which includes Blacktown, Cumberland, Parramatta and The Hills, where 202,500 homes are needed.

Mr Johnson said attitudes in the east were often anti-development, with “people out in Randwick towards La Perouse who would prefer not much to change”.

Without higher levels of development allowed across the city, he warned it would be difficult to provide the necessary homes for a growing population.

“At the height of development we built 30,000 new dwellings in the last financial year. But if we need 726,000 dwellings over 20 years that’s up to 36,400 new homes a year.”

The District Plans show the biggest growth area in Sydney by 2021 will be Parramatta, with 21,650 new homes required. Even the City of Sydney falls behind this growth, with 18,300 homes on the cards.

But Mr Johnson said the plans provided very little detail on where these homes could go, leaving any discussion of rezoning for future reports.

The eastern suburbs of Sydney will “not see the same growth, both economic and population wise” due to the new focus of Parramatta as the second CBD, Property Council of NSW executive director Jane Fitzgerald said.

“But growth, development and density should be spread equitably across Sydney – we should not have some suburbs shouldering more of the load than others,” Ms Fitzgerald said.

She warned there had been a “reluctance” in some local government areas to look at density.

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Research from urban planners JBA cited by the Property Council found that many of the moves towards higher density amendments to local plans were due to efforts from developers themselves, not the council, with just a third driven by local government.

“In nine of the councils surveyed, developers led no less than 70 per cent of rezonings for all large residential developments,” Ms Fitzgerald said.

In Randwick, Woollahra and Waverley, there were no council-led LEP amendments likely to result in more than 100 dwellings.

For those who live in the west, the increased density could result in a greater proportion of tenants who are looking for a lifestyle near jobs, transport and amenity, Tenants Union of NSW policy officer Ned Cutcher said.

“If anything, we’re going to see a spreading [of renters] and the proportion will grow in the Greater Metropolitan area,” he said.

This could also see lower income renters pushed further away from the western suburbs, University of Western Sydney urban studies lecturer Dallas Rogers said.

“Western Sydney has always been a working class city, the last thing we want is for working class people to be pushed out by rising property prices.

“It can take a generation to move someone from a low-income to a middle-income bracket but it can take a year for property prices to grow.”