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YouGov have released their latest Scotland poll and it suggests the SNP surge isn’t fading. The SNP polled 46 per cent and Labour on 27 per cent, in line with recent Scotland-wide polls.

Today’s poll, published in the Times, is the sixteenth Scottish poll released since September’s independence referendum. The first, by Panelbase in early October, gave the SNP a slender lead over Labour. Later that month MORI showed the SNP 29 points ahead, as UK-wide polls had indicated throughout the month.

Since then the SNP have led by at least 10 points in every Scotland-wide poll, and on average they have led by nearly twice as much (19 points). An average of the fifteen polls published since Panelbase’s October poll gives the SNP 46 per cent and Labour 27 – exactly as YouGov did today.

Unsurprisingly, Jim Murphy hasn’t been able to turn around his party’s years-long decline north of the border in a few months. And there is little likelihood he will before election day, now less than eight weeks away. YouGov’s poll tells us as much (link to the tables). Here are eight key findings from it:

1. 85 per cent of SNP voters aren’t planning on changing their minds

Seven in ten current SNP supporters say they will definitely vote for the party. Another 14 per cent say they would be surprised if they changed their minds. Just 7 per cent of them say it’s still possible they may switch, and only 4 per cent say it’s very possible.

Labour voters are actually more likely to switch their vote (possibly to the SNP). They are twice as likely as SNP voters to say it’s possible or very possible that they will. In other words, things could get worse for Labour rather than better.

Labour can’t recover in Scotland without winning over SNP voters. Winning over Lib Dems or Greens won’t help much – neither party polls more than a few per cent in Scotland. The only other significant Scottish party are the Tories, and it’s unlikely Tory voters will suddenly switch to Labour 97 per cent of the way through this parliament.

2. The Scottish Tory vote is holding up fairly well

The SNP is snapping up leftie and protest votes, not conservatives.

3. The SNP do best among 25-64 year olds

The SNP are the most popular party in Scotland among younger voters and retirees, but they’re more popular among the bulk of Scotland’s population: the 25-64 year olds who make up most of the country’s workforce.

Younger voters are more likely to vote for parties like the Lib Dems and Greens, and older voters are more likely to be Conservatives.

4. People aren’t impressed by how divided Labour are

And they think the SNP are united.

5. They are also unimpressed by Labour leadership

Jim Murphy hasn’t yet proved more popular than Ed Miliband. Nicola Sturgeon is thought to be doing well.

6. “Vote SNP, get the Tories”?

Only one in four SNP voters thinks their party’s rise will make a Tory government more likely. Nearly half say voting SNP will make no difference to who forms a government.

Perhaps more importantly, SNP voters would prefer a Tory government and lots of SNP MPs to a Labour government and only a few SNP MPs.

7. Labour shouldn’t rule out a deal with the SNP

While David Cameron is adamant Miliband needs to rule out an SNP deal, only Tory voters agree with him. Labour, Lib Dem and SNP voters all think Labour should keep the option open.

8. Support for independence has ticked up: it’s essentially 50:50

Or it may still be where it was in September. In the fortnight before the referendum polls suggested the race was essentially tied. Either those polls were slightly wrong or the actual decision day narrowed people’s minds.

It’s not clear whether support for independence has really ticked up, but clearly around half the country thinks Scotland should be independent.

Conclusion

Today’s poll reiterates what a trio of election forecasts suggest: Labour will lose around 30 of its 40 Scottish seats in May, and the SNP will win close to 50. May2015’s model, following Ashcroft’s seat polls, suggests the SNP will do even better than that.

Our seat calculator will soon take account of Scotland-wide polls, and our SNP forecast is likely to move closer to 50 (it’s currently 55). Any which way, nothing seems likely to halt a once-in-a-generation election collapse in 55 days.