[stag_dropcap font_size=”50px” style=”squared”]I[/stag_dropcap]t has not been an easy start to D’Angelo Russell‘s career. With all things considered, you could probably label it as rocky of a start as a second overall pick could have in the league – outside of when Larry Brown refused to play Darko Milicic meaningful minutes, which is a stance I will always have. With Russell, though, it was different. He was selected by the Los Angeles Lakers right after the Minnesota Timberwolves took the best rookie in recent memory, aka Karl-Anthony Towns. While Towns has been producing a season so historic that it puts him into the company of Hall of Fame big men, Russell has been quietly mired in a situation that would leave most rookies dejected. And while he has shown some fight in his post-game interviews, Russell’s shown even more on the court. For it’s not just Towns that can find his name put into the company of greats this season as a rookie, but rather Russell, as well. He’s certainly lived up to the lofty pick.

After one season at Ohio State, a season in which the left-handed point guard averaged 19.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.0 assists on 45-41-76 shooting, D’Angelo Russell was taken with the second overall pick in the 2015 NBA Draft by the Lakers. Now, some at the time saw it as a surprise. The pick made complete sense, but there were detractors who screamed from the mountaintops that Los Angeles should have selected talented low-post center Jahlil Okafor out of Duke. Nevermind the fact that playing Okafor and 2014 Top 10 pick Julius Randle together in the front court would have been a defensive disaster waiting to happen. Okafor’s presence has hampered the Philadelphia 76ers so much at times that they have oftentimes resorted to benching him late in games because of his lack of defensive understanding.

Either way, the Lakers picked Russell and some didn’t like it. It seems to happen with nearly every draft pick teams make. There are those who like it, those who don’t like it, and then there are those in the middle who just frankly don’t care and want the team to pick someone who pans out no matter who it is. That’s just the nature of the business, so to speak. Fans want who they want, but they want whoever it is that’s picked to actually work out or else it’s years of wasted development.

What can’t be disputed so far, though, is just how well Russell has played. Sure, he’s had hiccups here and there, but you have to remind yourself that he’s a 19-year old rookie making the jump from college to the NBA after just one season. He wasn’t in college a long time, and he’s had to adjust from being the main ball-handler for his team to being a stationary target quite often. Yet, there are times that he flashes just what makes him so downright special as a player. Whether he’s taking the ball coast-to-coast, running a pick-and-roll, or just flat out making a pass that most guys can’t make, you see the potential there. The kid is fluid in nearly everything he does. His shot doesn’t exert much energy, he pushes the ball at a quick but not fast pace, and he simply understands offensive construct.



There’s a level of calm whenever he’s on the floor. It looks like the game comes exceedingly easy for him. Not always, but a lot of the time. He’s also helped the Lakers when he’s been on the court – well, as much as anyone can help this edition of the Lakers. As it stands, Los Angeles has a Net Rating of -10.6 in the 1321 minutes that Russell has been on the floor. While that looks bad, and it is bad, it still is an improvement over when he’s not on the floor. The team’s Net Rating without him is -12.0, which has been accrued over 1132 minutes. It goes far beyond just on-off splits, though. His general play has been good.

Russell’s shooting 57.7 percent inside of 8 feet this season, a figure that ranks 7th among the 14 rookies that have attempted at least 100 shots within that range this season. Russell’s shooting better from than range than Okafor, Justise Winslow, Frank Kaminsky, Kristaps Porzingis, Stanley Johnson, Jerian Grant, and Emmanuel Mudiay. Of the six players above him, only Devin Booker (60.0 percent) could be classified as a perimeter oriented player. The rest – Richaun Holmes, Larry Nance Jr., Willie Cauley-Stein, Towns, and Nikola Jokic – are primarily big men. Not to mention that Russell is right on par with Russell Westbrook in the 16-to-24 foot department. Westbrook has made 40.4 percent of his 99 attempts there while Russell’s made 40.0 percent of his 95 attempts. These are all indicators that the young guard might have a bright future ahead of him.

Even driving to the basket is a strength for Russell. On his 138 registered drives this season, he’s shooting 48.7 percent, which is the best mark on the team among the five players with at least 50 drives. He’s also passed out on 40 of those drives, but it’s only resulted in 9 assists. Among the five Lakers with at least 50 drives, Russell ranks first in field goal percentage, first in free throw percentage, first in points percentage, third in pass percentage, third in assist percentage, and first in turnover rate. According to Shot Analytics data, Russell also is shooting 56.1 percent on shots inside of 5 feet when a defender is with three feet of the shot attempt. He’s able to finish at a respectable rate even amongst the trees.



Among all guards on the team, Russell ranks second in isolation points per possession (0.97) and Effective Field Goal Percentage (38.2 percent). Only Lou Williams bests him in both categories. Russell’s PPP on those 36 isolation possessions ranks close to the 77th percentile. While he rates very low on the pick-and-roll ball-handler list at 0.74 points per possession, you must also remember that it doesn’t account for passing. And passing is Russell’s calling card right now.

Russell generates 7.3 potential assists per game. That number is tops on the Lakers, and it puts him into company with Kyrie Irving (7.4) and Paul George (7.3). That’s really not bad company. It should be noted that Los Angeles ranks 29th in potential assists per game as a team, with just 37.6. Only the Toronto Raptors (37.1) are lower. In essence, they don’t pass the ball a lot and they resort to isolation offense more than any other team in the league. Isolation possessions account for 10.5 percent of the Lakers’ offense, and their 0.72 points per possession on such plays ranks 28th. Going back to Russell, the issue is that he only records 3.3 assists per game. That tells you that the team is blowing nearly 55 percent of his assist chances per contest. That’s not good. Normally, among the top guards in assists, that figure is under 50 percent.

This is spelled out in the other numbers, as well. For instance, D’Angelo Russell has passed Kobe Bryant the ball 365 times this season. Bryant’s taken 137 shots, but he’s only made 38.0 percent of them. In fact, the only players on the Lakers to have made at least 40.0 percent of their shots off of Russell passes, minimum 20 field goal attempts, are Brandon Bass (48.9 percent) and Jordan Clarkson (43.3 percent). If guys aren’t making shots off of your passes then you’re not going to get an assist for your troubles. It’s a tad shocking, I know, but it is what it is. You can put a player in the right spot with the right pass, but you can’t put the ball in the net for him. Russell’s array of no-look passes, bounce passes, and general craftiness have seemed to catch his teammates off-guard sometimes. On more than one occasion, big man Roy Hibbert has fumbled a pass that was right on the money. Once again, you can’t make the basket for him. Despite that, Russell is in pretty elite company for a rookie.

List of rookies 20 years old or younger to average 16-4-4 per 36 minutes Name Year Line (Points-Rebounds-Assists) Effective Field Goal Percentage True Shooting Percentage D’Angelo Russell 2015-16 16.1 – 4.9 – 4.4 48.3% 50.0% Tyreke Evans 2009-10 19.5 – 5.1 – 5.6 47.3% 52.9% Russell Westbrook 2008-09 16.9 – 5.4 – 5.9 41.4% 48.9% Chris Paul 2005-06 16.1 – 5.1 – 7.8 45.6% 54.6% LeBron James 2003-04 19.1 – 5.0 – 5.4 43.8% 48.8% Lamar Odom 1999-00 16.4 – 7.7 – 4.1 46.7% 52.1% Chris Webber 1993-94 19.7 – 10.2 – 4.0 55.2% 55.9% Magic Johnson 1979-80 17.9 – 7.7 – 7.3 53.4% 60.2%

The preceding table illustrates all the rookies, age 20 or younger, to record at least 16 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists per 36 minutes since the stats started being tabulated in 1946-47. In other words, D’Angelo Russell is one of just eight players in history to accomplish this monumental feat. One of the eight is already in the Hall of Fame (Magic Johnson), two of the others will definitely be in the Hall of Fame (LeBron James and Chris Paul), and two more could see themselves actually reach it (Chris Webber and Russell Westbrook). Lamar Odom had a great career, but he’s likely never to get into the Hall of Fame. Tyreke Evans is the major outlier here. He had a historic rookie season only to subsequently decline every season after that, for the most part, and he’s had trouble recreating that rookie year magic.

But Russell doesn’t appear to be another Evans. He’s already as good of a mid-range shooter as Westbrook is, and he’s finishing inside of 8 feet on par with a guy like Tony Parker right now. The real meat and potatoes part of Russell’s development might be his three-point shot. Yet, even that has hope attached to it. Despite shooting just 32.9 percent from long range this season, he’s managed to shoot 35.7 percent on catch-and-shoot attempts. He’s also shooting 38.5 percent on uncontested threes, a figure that should, based on progression, go up in the upcoming seasons as he gets stronger and more comfortable with his shot in the league.

Yet, even with a shot that hasn’t been as pristine as one would hope right away, he’s still producing a 50.0 True Shooting Percentage and 48.3 Effective Field Goal Percentage. And while those figures seem somewhat low, you have to remind yourself that he’s still just 19 years old, and that he isn’t too far off of where Russell Westbrook (48.9% eFG) and John Wall (50.7% TS) are right now. That’s the scary part of Russell’s rookie season. He’s been about as efficient as some of the game’s premier point guards, and that’s one of those things that cannot be ignored for much longer. He even compares favorably to a sure-fire Hall of Famer when accounting for age.

List of rookies 19 years old or younger to average 16-4-4 per 36 minutes Name Year Line (Points-Rebounds-Assists) Effective Field Goal Percentage True Shooting Percentage Usage Rate D’Angelo Russell 2015-16 16.1 – 4.9 – 4.4 48.3% 50.0% 23.6% LeBron James 2003-04 19.1 – 5.0 – 5.4 43.8% 48.8% 28.2%

That’s not a misprint. Russell and James are the only two players aged 19 or younger to average 16-4-4 per 36 minutes during their rookie seasons. And, on top of that, Russell has been far more efficient than James was at the same age. Their Usage Rate difference isn’t a huge canyon, either. Over the last 25 games, which was when Russell got demoted from starter to bench player, he has a 24.8 percent Usage Rate while still having a 51.8 True Shooting Percentage and 50.0 Effective Field Goal Percentage. In other words, even with an uptick in usage, he’s still found a way to be productive and efficient. Over that span of games, Russell is averaging 12.1 points, 3.4 assists, and 3.0 rebounds, as well as 1.2 steals, in 25.6 minutes per game. He’s been good, and he’s been good at a young age when most players his age are awestruck by the bright lights and big stage. Russell isn’t.

This isn’t to say that Russell hasn’t had some tough moments along the way. He’s been yo-yo’d by human yo-yo Byron Scott. There’s already been more than enough words written about Scott’s incompetence surrounding not just Russell, but everything pertaining to the Lakers organization, so we don’t need to rehash them all too much. The future of the team is the Russell-Clarkson pairing, at least in some capacity. They’ve both had their moments throughout the year, but the fact that Russell is performing well enough at such a young age gives credence that nothing except big things are ahead for him.

And we haven’t even discussed his defense. While the Lakers are an abomination defensively – they rank dead last, by a wide margin, in defensive efficiency – Russell has actually probably been the team’s best guard defender. He uses his 6-foot-5 height and 6-foot-10 wingspan to great benefit. Russell is able to wall guards off quite often and force them into tough shots, but a lot of that goes away in pick-and-roll settings because the Lakers literally have no clue if they’re supposed to ice, switch, or trap anything. You can point to the head coach for that constant misunderstanding.



Russell is a supremely capable defender, and he anticipates skip passes quite well. His basketball mind is probably ahead of his basketball body at this point, and that’s a fantastic conundrum to have right now. While some players are athletically gifted, they also lack the basketball know-how to maximize their athletic talent. Not with Russell. He’s a thinker in a basketball player’s body. It’s like if Confucius inhabited the body of Yao Ming , or if Plato morphed into Giannis Antetokounmpo . We’re talking elite of the elite scenarios here. That’s what Russell could turn into. A philosopher who can read situations and make accurate decisions based on his intuitiveness. There’s no telling what he could do as a two-way player. He could be the next great guard, if not a little Chris Paul-esque in the way he navigates through defenses, probes for the best option, and helps his team defensively.

According to the SportVU data, Russell is holding opponents to 36.1 percent shooting on shots from greater than 15 feet. His length detracts certain guards from getting good shots. That doesn’t mean he’s a shutdown defender or anything, but he has the potential to at least be above-average on that end, if not better. That 36.1 percent that Russell is holding opponents to from greater than 15 feet is also the same percentage that opponents shoot against Patrick Beverely, and no one questions his defensive chops. The potential is just there, and that’s one of the great things about selecting Russell with the second pick.

When Kobe Bryant is finally out of the Lakers’ hair at the end of this season, the reins will be handed over to D’Angelo Russell so that he can reign for as long as he likes. It’s up to him to put in the work required to reach that next level of greatness, but if his early returns are any indication, he seems poised for a wonderfully prosperous career that puts him in the company of the game’s best guards. Much of the talk leading up to the draft this past year was if Russell was the next Stephen Curry or James Harden. He doesn’t need to be either one. He just needs to be the first D’Angelo Russell and carve out his own market. There’s no doubt he’s going to do some magical things out there with the basketball, but doing a few great things is not his limit. Russell might be the great thing when it’s all said and done.