The first gameweek where we implemented selection rules to decide on our squad picks proved to be a huge success!

Our recommended XI scored 91 points, a whopping 48 points above the gameweek average, as Roberto Firmino (18), Dele Alli (13), Odion Ighalo (12) and captain Sergio Aguero (12 doubled to 24) all romped home with double-digit returns. And with the correct tinkering from our recommended XV – playing Schmeichel instead of de Gea and Ayew instead of Walcott or Lukaku – you could have ended Gameweek 23 with a staggering 106 point haul!

Read on as we look to eke out further Fantasy advantages from the bookies ahead of Gameweek 24 using our new squad selection rules…

Defensive odds

Team Clean Sheet Odds Implied chance Man Utd 2.05 49% Man City 2.25 44% West Ham 2.25 44% Arsenal 2.3 43% Chelsea 2.4 42% West Brom 2.55 39% Tottenham 2.55 39% Everton 2.62 38% Crystal Palace 2.75 36% Swansea 2.9 34% Leicester 3.1 32% Liverpool 3.3 30% Bournemouth 3.5 29% Watford 4 25% Aston Villa 4.2 24% Stoke 4.5 22% Norwich 4.6 22% Southampton 4.75 21% Newcastle 7 14% Sunderland 7.5 13%

Manchester United top the bookies defensive rankings for the 2nd successive weekend with a 49% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Louis van Gaal’s men host Stoke on Tuesday evening and the Red Devils have the best home defence in the Premier League – just 5 goals conceded in 11 games at Old Trafford. Stoke, meanwhile, have averaged less than 1 goal per game on their travels this term and have blanked in 3 of their last 4 in all competitions. As a result, we keep faith with David de Gea and call upon Cameron Borthwick-Jackson (4.0m) to save budget for midfield and attack.

Manchester City and West Ham come in joint-2nd this week (44% chances of clean sheets), but we promote Slaven Bilic’s men to 2nd place outright by virtue of the fact they have cheaper defenders and a better fixture. The Hammers enjoy a plum home tie with Aston Villa, who are the lowest-scoring side in the division managing just 0.78 goals per game. Attacking right-back Sam Byram and centre-half James Collins therefore make our squad.

Manchester and London clubs dominate the defensive rankings this gameweek as they complete the top 5, with the aforementioned City joined by Arsenal (43%) and Chelsea (42%). The Citizens travel to The Stadium of Light on Tuesday to tackle a Sunderland side who have been shut out in 3 of their last 6 home games, whilst Manuel Pellegrini’s men have the joint-2nd best away defence in the league (11 goals conceded in 11), The Gunners will look to add to their league-high 10 clean sheets this season when they entertain a Southampton team who have struggled for goals on the road this season – scoring just 10 in 11 away ties, the joint-3rd worst in the division. Finally, Guus Hiddink takes his charges across the capital to Vicarage Road where Watford, who have notched just twice in their last 3, lie in wait. For starting security and budget reasons, Pablo Zabaleta, Per Mertesacker and Thibaut Courtois get the nod for our recommended XV.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet rankings tells us that defensive assets from Southampton (21% – away to Arsenal), Newcastle (14% – away to Everton) and Sunderland (13% – at home to Man City) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Goalscorer Odds Implied chance Romelu Lukaku 1.9 53% Sergio Aguero 1.95 51% Harry Kane 2.2 45% Olivier Giroud 2.37 42% Jamie Vardy 2.6 38% Diego Costa 2.6 38% Wayne Rooney 2.7 37% Enner Valencia 2.8 36% Alexis Sanchez 2.9 34% Kevin Mirallas 2.95 34% Emmanuel Adebayor 3 33% Raheem Sterling 3.15 32% Christian Benteke 3.25 31% Dimitri Payet 3.3 30% Roberto Firmino 3.4 29% Salomon Rondon 3.5 29% Odion Ighalo 3.5 29% Saido Berahino 3.5 29% Benik Afobe 3.55 28% Charlie Austin 3.6 28% Riyad Mahrez 3.75 27% Oscar 3.75 27% Juan Mata 3.8 26% Aleksandar Mitrovic 3.8 26% Troy Deeney 4 25% Dele Alli 4 25% Jermain Defoe 4.1 24% Dieumerci Mbokani 4.2 24% Andre Ayew 4.2 24% Yohan Cabaye 4.3 23% Rudy Gestede 4.33 23% Georginio Wijnaldum 4.35 23% Josh King 4.4 23% Steven Naismith 4.6 22% Gyilfi Sigurdsson 4.6 22% Wahbi Khazri 5 20% Scott Sinclair 5.1 20% Bojan 5.2 19% Marko Arnautovic 5.25 19% Dusan Tadic 6 17%

Despite failing to score in his last 4 games in all competitions, Romelu Lukaku still has 15 Premier League goals to his name this term – 1 behind Jamie Vardy in the race for the Golden Boot – and tops the bookies attacking rankings for Gameweek 24 with a 53% chance of finding the back of the net. The big Belgian enjoys a home clash against a Newcastle side who have the 3rd-worst defence in the league (1.78 goals per game conceded) and, as a result of his position atop the attacking ladder this gameweek, is given the captain’s armband.

Sergio Aguero notched twice for the 2nd consecutive league game after he put 2 past West Ham to earn City a point at The Boleyn Ground. The Argentine international is Lukaku’s closest challenger in this round of fixtures with the bookies affording him a 51% chance of netting against Sunderland. Having scored 7 in 7 since returning from injury, Aguero, who has 12 league goals this campaign, will be looking to strengthen his challenge for the top scorer gong against Sunderland on Tuesday, with the Black Cats the worst defensive unit in the top flight (2 goals per game conceded).

Harry Kane (45%) and Olivier Giroud (42%) miss out on our squad due to budget constraints, so it is Premier League top scorer Jamie Vardy (38%) who completes our forward lineup this time out. The England striker, who has scored 16 times to date in an incredible season, was back amongst the goals in the Foxes’ last game against Stoke, having seen both his and Leicester’s goalscoring form dry up over the festive period and January. On Tuesday evening he welcomes Liverpool to The King Power, with Jurgen Klopp’s men keeping just 1 clean sheet in their last 7 away ties, as well as conceding 4 at Norwich last Saturday.

The 1st midfielder to earn a place in our gameweek squad is Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez (34%). The Chilean maestro returned from injury in last weekend’s defeat to rivals Chelsea and served a timely reminder of just what he can produce with a goal and an assist in Arsenal’s FA Cup triumph over Burnley on Saturday. Opponents Southampton had lost 4 away games on the trot prior to their victory over Manchester United in Gameweek 23, so Sanchez and Arsenal should be confident, and the 4-0 humiliation they suffered at the hands of the Saints in December will mean the Gunners are fully motivated to exact revenge.

Kevin Mirallas (34%), Dimitri Payet (30%), Riyad Mahrez (27%) and Dele Alli (25%) complete our midfield selections. 2 goals in his last 4 league appearances sees Mirallas, although a slight injury doubt, make our XI as he faces the same Newcastle backline as teammate and fellow countryman Romelu Lukaku. Payet, flourishing in his maiden Premier League season, enjoys home comforts against rock-bottom Aston Villa. Algerian wizard Mahrez will look to continue his own sensational season (13 goals and 8 assists) as he joins aforementioned teammate Jamie Vardy in taking on Liverpool, whilst Dele Alli scored, assisted and secured maximum bonus last time out away to Crystal Palace – he travels to East Anglia to face Norwich on Tuesday.

Other viable options in the middle of the park according to the bookies include Raheem Sterling (32%), Roberto Firmino (29%), Oscar (27%) and Juan Mata (26%), but they all miss out on places in our squad due to budget restrictions.

The Gameweek Squad

Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter.

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