Owing to the rapid and frightening shift, our world looks very different from what it was a few weeks ago. Social distancing, quarantine, frequent sanitization, check-up units, and lockdowns are the new normal. The fear and anxiety about COVID19 have caused strong emotional surges in people of all ages. The situation in the USA, Italy, Iran, Spain, and other countries is causing horror and panic globally.

As I said in my last post on Covid19- The human brain is wired to be alert to natural threats. Negative biases can make human beings irrational. In these times, people’s attention is largely drawn towards the worst-case scenarios.

So let’s first consider the worst-case scenario: The virus can result in community transmission across different countries. Millions can catch the virus and succumb to the effects of weakened immunity. Countless can die with flooded hospitals unable to deal adequately with heart diseases, asthma, diabetes, and other diseases. The global economy can suffer severe damage with people not going out, businesses staying closed, and unemployment. A vaccine is far off, it may take anything from 18 months to two years to build one.

Photo by Tonik on Unsplash

Now here is a positive as well as a practical outlook that can help calm the panic…

Coronavirus mutates or undergoes small changes in its genome.

Mostly older people and people having severe medical conditions related to heart, lung, and kidney are at higher risk. Since their immune system is already weak or fighting existing conditions, it cannot withstand the effects of COVID19. Other people having decent immunity are most likely to recover. Of all infected, more than 113,700 have already recovered.

Leaving the Hubei province out, only about 0.8 percent of infected people have died in the rest of China. The death rate on a cruise ship is just 0.6 percent. This study says nearly 99% of the fatalities in Italy were those who had previous medical conditions. Covid19 is not as lethal as it is feared, even without a proven treatment.

Covid19 can be contained with responsible actions and significant measures. Acting promptly, Singapore, Hongkong, and Taiwan have taken defining measures to curtail the impact of the virus. Despite being one of the first countries to face the Covid19 onslaught, Singapore has only 509 cases with only 2 deaths. 355 of 509 cases are active, whereas 152 patients have recovered.

Quick border control, aggressive testing & tracking, clear public communication, vigilance, quarantining those exposed, ensuring social distancing, travel restrictions, etc. are the measures being taken. With similar measures, China has also controlled the spread and flattened the Covid19 curve. The country is now preparing to lift the lockdown in the city of Wuhan where the outbreak started.

The impact of the virus is manageable given the healthcare system is not overwhelmed (hospitals are not overrun) and frontline health workers are protected with advanced gears. The real problem is not the treatment of the virus but the spread. The need of the hour is social distancing and a change in people’s attitudes. If the virus is contained, healthcare can effectively deal with fewer infected people and save them. Meanwhile, the work for potential treatment is underway. The first coronavirus vaccine clinical trials have already started and it is expanding to recruiting healthy volunteers for testing.

On priority, resources should be poured more into public health and less into clinical medicine. Public health policies need to come up with standard epidemiological tool kits to stop the spread. No point in putting resources in enhancing the clinical medicine. There is no time for that, the pandemic has already crossed the second stage in most of the countries.

The difference between clinical medicine and public health in the context of Covid19 is simple. Doctors and medical professionals will treat the patients at full capacity, while public health services will stop the spread to keep people safe. Historically, public health services have saved more lives than medicines.

With priorities in check, resources in the right place, and harmonious efforts of everyone, this pandemic can be managed. The worst-case scenario of COVID19 is just a flex of imagination. With all the efforts that are being put, the best-case scenario is on the cards.