Getty CONGRESS House GOP obsessed with Boehner's future The speaker's allies believe he's being blackmailed by hardliners.

Speaker John Boehner says he’s not worried about his political future, but the Ohio Republican’s fate has become an overwhelming obsession of House Republicans. His backers believe Boehner is being “blackmailed” by conservative hard-liners into supporting a government shutdown. His critics insist they just want their leader to do the right thing.

The latest flash point for Boehner is the controversy over federal funding for Planned Parenthood. Hard-line conservative Republicans want Boehner to do whatever it takes to shut off funding for the group, even if it means a shutdown. They’re vowing to vote against any spending bill that allows such funding to continue.


The warning to Boehner is obvious: The speaker can either do what they want on Planned Parenthood, or they’ll force a vote to replace him.

Yet to hear Boehner’s friends and supporters tell it, the Ohio Republican is essentially being threatened into supporting a shutdown with no realistic plan on how to win the fight, which they liken to a repeat of the 2013 government closure over Obamacare. These GOP insiders say Boehner has no intention of provoking a showdown with President Barack Obama and Democrats that can result only in a Republican defeat. In the view of many in leadership, including Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), it’s a battle that needs to take place on something other than a must-pass government funding bill.

The disagreement shows just how bad the situation is for Boehner right now. Every piece of legislation that Republican leaders put on the floor, or even think about putting up for a vote, is viewed through the prism of whether it will trigger an effort by conservative hard-liners to replace Boehner. The Ohio Republican’s allies and leadership aides believe there could be a showdown on whether Boehner can remain as speaker in the next few weeks.

“My position has been this month will be telling with what’s going to happen,” said Rep. Raúl Labrador (R-Idaho), among the most vocal members of the House Freedom Caucus, a hotbed of anti-Boehner opposition. “If we’re going to do business as usual, it is going to be very difficult for me to continue with the same leadership that we have now.”

Twenty-five Republicans voted against Boehner for speaker back in January, and Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) reignited the debate when he proposed a motion to “vacate the chair” in late July, essentially calling a vote on whether Boehner should continue as speaker. Those close to Boehner say they expect Meadows or another hard-liner to offer the motion again in coming weeks, depending on what happens with Planned Parenthood. Or it could be offered when Boehner moves to increase the federal debt later this fall or early next year. Or any other time. The shoe is going to drop, these members say, it’s just a matter of time.

“There’s a fuse burning, and things are going to blow up soon,” added a GOP lawmaker close to Republican leaders. “It’s not if it will blow up. The only question is when.”

Boehner and other House GOP leaders are holding a Republican Conference meeting on Wednesday where they will discuss the Planned Parenthood issue, the latest in a series of “listening sessions” that leadership has convened on the topic. Boehner and his top lieutenants have already floated holding a separate vote on Planned Parenthood while several House committees continue to investigate the organization’s activities. They are pushing alternative legislation offered by Rep. Diane Black (R-Tenn.) to impose a “moratorium” on any federal funds going to Planned Parenthood for one year. The Black bill is set to be voted on later this week, although Senate Democrats are expected to prevent it from being taken up in that chamber.

Boehner aides also said no decision will be made on a continuing resolution to fund the government past the Sept. 30 deadline until House Republicans agree on how to handle Planned Parenthood. McConnell told POLITICO last week that he wants to see a CR passed that funds the government until early December, and a similar target date has been floated among House leadership.

“It’s clear we need to let the pressure build up a little bit more, and we’re not there yet,” said a GOP leadership aide close to the issue.

A vote over whether Boehner should remain speaker is not an easy one for many members, and Boehner is aware of the problem for his rank and file back home. Boehner is also unpopular with the right-wing media and outside conservative groups, which see him as an outdated relic of the Republican establishment that needs to be replaced.

Yet the reality is that Boehner — who is still personally popular with the vast majority of members — may be the only Republican who can handle the competing pressures within the GOP Conference. Any realistic replacement — such as Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) or Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) — would not have any more political latitude to operate than Boehner has had.

There are also some Republicans who see the Boehner controversy as an unnecessary distraction that interferes with their broader effort to rein in Obama’s agenda, such as the president’s so-far successful push to enact the nuclear deal with Iran.

“The American people are tired of all of the conference infighting. We must move forward by rallying around the causes that we can all agree on — putting our nation back on track,” said Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Utah).

Boehner, in his characteristically phlegmatic manner, told reporters last week that he’s not worried about what happens to him personally, though he also hedged on whether there would be a government shutdown over Planned Parenthood. To some in the Capitol, it sounded eerily like the language he used before the 2013 shutdown, which lasted 16 days.

“The goal here is not to shut down the government,” Boehner said. “The goal is to stop these horrific practices of organizations selling baby parts. So that’s the goal here.”

Sources close to Boehner say numerous members have approached him privately to pledge their loyalty to him. And they note that Boehner, a prolific fundraiser, spent the weekend in New Orleans and Mississippi raising money for his colleagues. Boehner heads to Seattle next weekend for additional fundraisers, and he has more events set up through October.

For Team Boehner, the image they want to portray is one of “business as usual, nothing to see here,” joked a GOP lawmaker.

“Navigating tough challenges isn’t new to this leadership team,” said Emily Schillinger, Boehner’s spokeswoman. “The speaker is focused on the American people’s priorities and how we can accomplish them. He’s got wide support amongst our members, and he is not going anywhere.”

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), chairman of the Freedom Caucus, tried to avoid being pinned down on whether Boehner should be replaced during an appearance on C-SPAN over the weekend.

“That’s not the question. That may be the question at some point down the road,” Jordan said when he was asked whether there should be a vote to replace Boehner soon.

“It’s a tough job. It’s a darn tough job. He’s got to deal with Barack Obama. He’s got to deal with Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and, frankly, with guys like me. … It’s a very difficult job. I would have done some things different, but every member of Congress would have done some things different.”