Dorian is one of the six strongest hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic, but meteorologists are finding its path difficult to predict

Hurricane Dorian: where will the storm hit and what damage will it bring?

Hurricane Dorian is proving a slippery customer. Not only is it one of the six strongest hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic in the past 70 years, but meteorologists are finding its path very difficult to predict because of its wide “cone of uncertainty”. It is impossible to say just where the storm will hit – and with how much deadly force.

Within that fuzzy picture, Dorian has the potential to affect millions in the Caribbean and along the US coast. So what is the current thinking about its path?

Sunday

What we know with certainty is that Dorian will hit the northern Bahamas as a category 5 hurricane, the most powerful on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale, with the potential to cause “catastrophic damage”. It is expected to make landfall on the Abaco Islands, home to about 17,000 people, on Sunday afternoon and Grand Bahama (52,000) overnight and into Monday.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest A handout photo made available by Nasa on 1 September shows Hurricane Dorian over the Atlantic Ocean approaching the Bahamas and Florida. Photograph: Nasa/Handout/EPA

A Sunday morning update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami painted a bleak picture. When a US air force plane specially designed for the purpose was flown through Dorian on Sunday morning, it recorded winds of almost 175mph.

NHC later said Dorian was the strongest hurricane on record to hit the north-western Bahamas, with sustained winds of 180mph.

“This is a life-threatening situation. Residents should take immediate shelter,” the NHC warned. Winds could gust at more than 200mph and islanders could also have to contend with a storm surge of up to 23ft and rainfall of up to 30in in places.

Monday

Though the Bahamas will probably suffer the most devastation, the big question in terms of scale of potential human suffering is where and when Dorian will hit along the east coast of the US, where population density is so much greater. Here, projections become much less definitive.

On Sunday, the hurricane was moving at about 7mph in the direction of southern Florida. That slow speed made it all the more dangerous.

But at some point, probably later on Monday, Dorian is expected to veer towards the north-west, making a direct hit on the coast less likely.

The difficulty is that at this point the projected cone of the hurricane – the probable path of its center – becomes much wider, which renders its path less predictable. Latest projections show its likely trajectory as moving along the US coast and continuing to veer in a clockwise direction as it approaches Georgia and South Carolina, which would avoid the most catastrophic scenario of a direct landfall.

Floridians not fazed as Hurricane Dorian’s path keeps state guessing Read more

Into Tuesday

Such is the awesome size and power of the hurricane, combined with its slow movement, that the NHC is warning that even if Florida does not experience a direct hit, the result could still be disastrous. The agency said hurricane conditions are possible in Florida by late on Monday and into early Tuesday morning.

The NHC also noted that hurricane-force winds of at least 74mph can be expected up to 45 miles from the center of the storm and tropical storm-force winds of up to 73mph up to 140 miles from it. That puts much of the Florida coast, and that of Georgia and South Carolina, in peril.

A stretch of 150 miles of Florida coastline from the northern edge of Fort Lauderdale up to Brevard county was placed under warning that hurricane conditions are possible over the next 48 hours, even if Dorian tracks the coast without making landfall. The potential hazards include a storm surge of up to 7ft around Brevard county.

Tuesday and beyond

The further out the projection, the less certainty there is about Dorian’s path and potential destruction. But the NHC is clear that danger will remain, stating: “Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.”

That will bring the coast of Georgia and South Carolina into the frame, with all the consequent risks of high winds, storm surges and flooding.