A quick note before getting into the actual article: This is the 2nd part of a series I’ll be doing leading up to the draft breaking down the strengths of different prospects. The first one I did was on Jaren Jackson Jr. which you can find right here.

Anyway, you came here to read about Marvin Bagley so here’s some stuff about him.

Marvin Bagley should be dominating high schoolers, instead he’s dominating college kids. Photo by Lance King/Getty Images

Bagley is probably the most polarizing player at the top of the draft. Many people believe he’s a top 3 player in this year’s class thanks to his elite athleticism and motor, while skeptics worry about just how skilled he really is and where he will play in the NBA.

Athleticism

As an athlete there really aren’t any questions with Bagley, he’d be a top tier athlete even among NBA players. He’s incredibly fluid with plenty of bounce even off of one foot which helps him finishing at the rim (where he’s shooting 79.4% per Hoop-math.com). While a lot of players are truly great athletes, not all of them are good functional athletes in an actual game setting. That isn’t the case with Bagley, as he constantly goes up for rebounds/putbacks on his second jump, runs in transition, and moves all around the court with relative ease.

It’s rare to see guys that are 6’11 run the fast break themselves, but when you are as smooth and explosive as Bagley is combined with some nice ball handling skills you get a guy who is a terror to stop in transition:

This play is also a good display of Bagley’s intelligence, he does a terrific job of keeping the ball away from the defender and then he’s just too explosive to stop at that point.

And on this dunk against Florida State he displays that he doesn’t need to build up momentum to get up and throw it down:

Offense

As a scorer, he isn’t just flashy dunks either. He scores in the post a bit as well because that’s just what college big men do, but with post scoring being ushered out of NBA offenses I don’t think you’ll be seeing much of that at the next level. He’s a strong finisher and has a developing jump shot that I believe in eventually becoming part of his game. Even though Bagley’s jump shot isn’t falling at a great rate mechanically it looks good. Maybe the release isn’t super quick but there isn’t some crazy hitch to it or anything and it’s a nice fluid motion for the most part:

I’d expect him to be used as a pick & roll threat a ton early in his career, where his quickness and explosiveness will be a nightmare to stop as long as he has a capable passer that can get him his opportunities in those situations. He also has the ballhandling skills necessary to beat bigs off the dribble and score for himself, as he does on this play:

He’s also a very good offensive rebounder, owning a 14.1% offensive rebounding rate, he’ll be able to create second chances for him and his teammates pretty easily.

Overall Bagley shouldn’t have much trouble scoring in the NBA, he’s too good of an athlete who fights for offensive rebounds and putbacks very well while still possessing the potential to be able to stretch the floor in time.

Defense

Probably the biggest questions surrounding Bagley deal with his defensive fit in the NBA. A lot of people are worried that he won’t be able to play the 5 defensively because he isn’t necessarily strong/long enough to be a primary rim protector and others worry about his problems in college with rotations/communication. His situation at Duke definitely doesn’t help his situation either, as he plays with Trevon Duval/Gary Trent Jr/Grayson Allen who aren’t exactly locking down the perimeter and then with either Wendell Carter or Marques Bolden staying in the paint, leaving Bagley in a very awkward spot.

There’s no doubt he’s not been a great defender at Duke so far, but I think there are still plenty of reasons to believe in him on that end. First of all, as mentioned extensively above, he is a tremendous athlete with quick feet and good lateral agility. He should be able to switch onto guards effectively in time and I think can be a weakside rim protector.

In the above clip, you see that despite some poor communication between him & Grayson Allen, Bagley is still able to make up for the mistake by catching up and blocking the shot. His athleticism gives him plenty of margin for error, even if he doesn’t have a Mohamed Bamba-esque wingspan.

Keep in mind when watching him that he isn’t even 19 yet and hasn’t been asked to do what he’s doing at Duke before in his basketball career. Yes there are issues with consistency and with closeouts, but he’s still super young, not in the best situation, and is only going to get better in time.

Overall

There isn’t any question that Marvin Bagley is a great prospect, but in a top-loaded draft class where does he stand? Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images

So, what do I think of Marvin Bagley III? Well, in a lot of classes I think he’d be the top pick. His fluidity, explosiveness, motor, and just pure production for someone who should still be in high school are all fantastic. But in this class while he’s still a top 5 pick he falls in the 2nd tier of guys behind Luka Doncic for me with DeAndre Ayton, Trae Young, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Michael Porter Jr. On offense I do really believe he can be a very good scorer so long as the jumper does come along. Defensively he needs to react faster, especially off-ball. He needs to communicate better and just make rotations quicker, and I’m confident he can do that if given the time.

I also think he’s a relatively safe bet to be at least a starter in the NBA, and that’s something I don’t know anyone in his tier outside of maybe Jaren Jackson can provide, as there are some significant questions about the others. His motor is terrific and he’s at least going to be a very good energy player for a team. Clearly Bagley has some questions to answer as far as how he fits at the next level, but I’m confident that thanks to his activity level and motor he can develop quickly into a potential All-Star.

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