January 17, 2017

It is election time and Punjab has thrown several possibilities regarding winners and losers, yet there is a fear that the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party may not be able to duck anti-incumbency factor this time around. Ruling for the past 10 years, the SAD-BJP combine may find itself in a trough with less chance to overcome simmering discontent arising out of drug menace, unemployment and poor law and order. However, to say that there is a wave or push in favour of certain party will be fraught with exaggeration. Captain Amrinder Singh, the former Chief Minister of the state is trying to pump in energy and drive to bring the Congress back to power. He is daring to tame the lion. The 75-year-old scion of the Patiala royal family who is the chief ministerial face of the Congress, has asked his party’s high command to allow him to contest from Lambi, Punjab Chief Minister Prakash Singh Badal’s home constituency. Whether he contests from this assembly seat or not, his aggressive positioning has galvanized the party. Then former BJP MP Navjot Siddhu’s joining of the Congress has imparted further dynamism to the party. However, it is the Aam Aadmi Party which seems to have changed the course of political narrative in the state. Bereft of chief ministerial face, the AAP has challenged political might of the SAD-BJP combine and the Congress. Even though it has suffered setbacks owing to split, expulsion of leaders, the AAP continues to have an advantage against Akalis and the Congress. Its’ tirade against Badals (Prakash Singh Badal and his son Sukhbir Singh Badal) is lapped up by people who are unhappy with their 10-year of misrule. In that way, by all accounts the election for 117 seats on February 11 is very crucial, as it would enable the electorate to decide whether they want status quo or a change in the state’s political system.

Who will win election?

Both the Congress and the AAP, which is contesting the election in alliance with the Lok Insaf Party, have a chance to bring a change in the state. In the 2014 parliamentary polls, the AAP had bagged four Lok Sabha seats in Punjab, besides securing 30.40 per cent vote. On the other hand, the Congress won three seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls–a loss of five seats from the 2009 parliamentary polls. Yet it managed to corner 33.10 per cent vote, more than what the SAD, the BJP and the APP had secured in terms of vote share. In 2012 assembly election too, the Congress had more vote share than the SAD, the BJP and others. Even as it won 46 out of total 117 assembly seats, the party was able to secure 39.92 per cent vote. These statistics show that the Congress, despite having larger vote share, failed to convert it into seats. Complacency and factionalism within the state Congress were cited as reasons behind the party’s poor show in the last assembly and parliamentary polls. However, this time, the Congress is raring to go for a kill. The party is trying to en-cash on resentment against the Badal family and continued decline of state on all major fronts like employment generation, agriculture, power, road and law and order. In contrast, the AAP, which is campaigned vigorously by Delhi Chief Minister and party chief, Arvind Kejriwal, is trying to win voters’ support by attacking the Congress and the ruling SAD-BJP dispensation. Ridding the state of corruption and drug menace are pledges of this rookie party. It is claiming to have a sway over disenchanted youth and women folks who have often complained against the government for its failure to act against mushrooming drug peddlers and rise of crime against women. But the rookie party is not able to clear its slate on the issue of its funding sources and Sikh radicals’ support. Both the ruling dispensation and the Congress are accusing the AAP of getting support from Sikh radicals sitting in Canada, Britain and Pakistan. These parties also target Kejriwal as an outsider with no connect with Punjab’s cultural ethos. In fact, the SAD-BJP combine is harping on this aspect more than the Congress. Peace and development are key planks of this combine. But to say that the ruling alliance is an underdog will be too early to say.

Polling strategy of political parties

It should be noted that youth constitute around 30 per cent, while Dalit forms over 31 per cent of the total population in Punjab. Women accounts for more than 93 lakh of the total registered voters in the state. Yet youth has largely proved to be a deciding factor in win or loss of a party. Along with this, Dalit voters have also played a significant role in making a party ruler or a luckless opposition group. Voting pattern of last few years shows that Dalit voters have refused to be seen as a committed vote bank of a particular party, rather they have voted strategically, in keeping with their aspirations and political interests. There are total 34 reserved constituencies in the state as such, every party in the fray wants to play Dalit cards to their hilt. The AAP, contesting on 113 seats, while its alliance partner Lok Insaf Party on four seats, has fielded 32 Dalit candidates in the election. Its star campaigner is Bant Singh, a Dalit whose hands and a leg were chopped off after he fought for justice over the alleged gang-rape of his minor daughter. The Congress has fielded 34 Dalit out of 117 candidates. By doing so, the party has shown that it doesn’t want to commit the same mistake it did in 2012 assembly polls. Both Dalit and Hindu voters had largely deserted the Congress after seeing its apathy in fielding Dalit and Hindu candidates. In order to strike a balance it has fielded more Dalit candidates this time. But the SAD and the BJP, contesting 94 and 23 seats respectively in the election, are ready to enact their social engineering experiment once again. Of the total 29 Dalit candidates, the SAD has fielded in the election more than 20 are new faces, while the BJP has three new faces out of five Dalit candidates it has fielded. To woo Dalit, the ruling party has taken out ‘Dalit Yatra’ which will conclude at Ramtirath a few days before the polls in February.

You may also like to read Punjab Opinion Poll

Punjab Election Date 2017

Conclusion

Even as opinion polls conducted by India Today, ABP news, VDP Associates, Huffington Post and C-Voter are at odds with each other, political scenario in the state suggests that this would be the toughest election ever. For example, if poll conducted by India Today-Axis gives the Congress an advantage over the SAD-BJP combine and the AAP, ABP-Lokniti gives the SAD-BJP combine clear majority over its rivals. But then VDP Associates in its opinion poll makes the AAP a clear winner. It gives the AAP a hopping 93 seats in the assembly polls. In this situation, no one can predict what way election will move. But certainly demonetization is not as much a core issue as seen in Uttar Pradesh.

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