The vast majority of Democratic insiders from the early states don’t believe Joe Biden will run for president, despite evidence that he is seriously considering a 2016 bid.

That’s the assessment of the POLITICO Caucus, our weekly bipartisan survey of the top strategists, activists and operatives in Iowa and New Hampshire. Their responses come as speculation swirls about whether the vice president will jump into the Democratic primary against his longtime colleague, and likely nominee, Hillary Clinton.


“He’s a truly wonderful man universally loved by NH Democrats, but I can’t imagine him undertaking such a monumental underdog effort at such a difficult time for his family and with the massive monetary, people and campaign advantages of the Clinton campaign,” a New Hampshire Democrat said, referring to the recent death of Biden’s eldest son, former Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden.

“An objective reading of VP Biden’s chances of winning the nomination will force him to accept the reality that he should not enter the race for the Democratic nomination,” an Iowa Democrat said.

Biden has held conversations with donors, advisers and strategists about the process, but eight in 10 Democratic insiders don’t think he’ll actually pull the trigger and join the race. They say it’s too late in the game for Biden to mount a serious bid unless Clinton implodes — a prospect that most saw as unlikely — after months of scrutiny of her email practices while she was secretary of state, an issue that has triggered the attention of the FBI.

“He will flirt with it, but at the end of the day he won’t run,” an Iowa Democrat said. “There isn’t a real path here for him to the White House this late in the game.”

“Unless the e-mail thing gets demonstrably worse for Hillary, Biden will heed the advice of his wife and stay out of the race,” said a New Hampshire Democrat, who like all POLITICO Caucus participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely.

Several other insiders pointed to the vice president’s challenging family circumstances, and to the idea that his wife, Jill Biden, is said to be uninterested in another national run. Biden ran unsuccessfully in 1988 and 2008.

“He must be very torn, but in the end I think his head (and Jill’s) will prevail over his heart, and he will recognize that the hill is too steep and the rock too large at this late date,” said a New Hampshire Democrat.

Asked whether Biden should run for president, three-quarters of Democratic insiders said no.

“I have the utmost respect for him. On both a personal and professional level, he is exemplary in every way,” a New Hampshire Democrat said. “However, his time has passed, Hillary is more qualified and it’s too late.”

Others were harsher in responding to that question, saying that if he jumps in, he risks torpedoing much of the goodwill he currently has from the rest of his party.

“Big mistake,” warned an Iowa Democrat. “1) he will Lose. 2) he’ll be labeled a spoiler.”

Added a New Hampshire Democrat: “First and foremost, he is a loyal Democrat and he must know his late entry would not be good for the party; it would also not be good for his legacy; if he runs he will never be as liked and well-respected for his service as he is today.”

“His candidacy would only serve to show division within the party without making a particular ideological argument Democrats ought to [hear] or laying the groundwork for his future,” an Iowa Democrat said.

The responses wereflipped on the Republican side: 65 percent of GOP insiders expect he will run,and more than three-quarters said he should run. Republicans view Biden as occupying the same centrist Democratic lane as Clinton, and want to see him pull support from her. And GOP insiders largely consider Clinton to be struggling, and don’t think Biden has much to lose from taking her on.

“Why the hell not,” said a New Hampshire Republican. “He is at the end of his career and Hillary Clinton is putting in her best effort to destroy her own chances at the White House.”

Given all he’s experienced, the vice president "truly has nothing tolose by running another campaign,” said an Iowa Republican. “History will bekind to him regardless of the outcome.”

Summed up a Granite State Republican: “I think primaries provide a healthy debate for a party, and whether you are a Republican looking to chip away at Hillary or a Democrat who isn’t happy with Hillary, it’s good for everyone that he runs.”

What would stop Donald Trump?

When asked what would sink the campaign of Donald Trump, the bombasticbillionaire who continues to rise in the GOP primary polls, the most popularresponse from insiders was that Trump would eventually sink himself. But therewas plenty of hand-wringing — and there were many potshots — from insiders onboth sides of the aisle who said they were flummoxed by his seeming ability todefy political gravity.

“Let’s see, what if he insulted a POW… wait. If he said the Mexican government is sending rapists across the border… oh, wait. How about if he called Megyn Kelly a menstruating no-talent idiot… that would do it! Wait, what? He already did all those things? Hard to imagine what he could say at this point,” an Iowa Republican said.

“NO ONE HAS ANY IDEA!” wailed a New Hampshire Democrat.

“Hell if I know!” said an Iowa Republican.

Those who offered concrete answers tended to point to the candidate himself, “his mouth,” and the mere passage of time — their belief being that at some point, his trail of controversial comments would catch up to him.

“His shtick will wear thin after a few months and a million dollars of negative TV,” an Iowa Republican said.

“Donald Trump will sink Donald Trump,” a New Hampshire Republican said. “The act will play itself out, the curtain will close, and the audience will go home.”

Others said that if Trump is treated more like a run-of-the-millcandidate than a media sensation, the interest will wear off.

“If the media begins treating him like every other candidate — Republican and Democrat — then he will be forced to run an actual campaign, and not ride a wave of free media coverage that occurs daily with no real accountability or requirement to be substantive or newsworthy,” complained a New Hampshire Republican. “How many Bush, Clinton, Fiorina, O’Malley, Walker, Sanders, or Rubio town hall meetings have been carried live in prime time on multiple national cable news networks this cycle? For that matter, how many national front runners in 2007 or 2011 had their town hall meetings carried live in prime time before there was a nominee?”

And some insiders expressed hope that when the field narrows, more voterswill coalesce around a smaller number of candidates, forcing Trump down in thepolls.

But, cautioned a New Hampshire Republican, the question of what would halt Trump’s rise is “the billion-dollar gold tower question. If someone tells you they know, you know it’s amateur hour.”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus (not all of whom participated this week):

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.