The Once and Future Kings: How Cloud 9 can Reclaim the NA Crown

Twenty-Three players, that’s how many have participated in this rivalry. Nine North American splits. Six North American finals appearances featuring these teams. Four seasons of back and forth battles. Three years since one of them has held the title. Only two players remain who were there at the beginning of it all. One more opponent, one more best of five, Cloud9 and TeamSoloMid will face off this Sunday April 23rd for the title of NA LCS champion one more time.

The Narrative:

The league has boiled down to Cloud 9 and TeamSoloMid six times before. Only Jason “WildTurtle” Tran and Zachary “Sneaky” Scuderi, the AD Carries for TSM and C9 respectively, are the only two players that participated in that first clash all the way back in Summer 2013. Both TSM and Cloud 9 were different teams back then. The storyline for those finals was whether or not TSM could stop the powerhouse that was Cloud 9. Last summer the story remained very much the same though the roles were reversed. TSM had gone on their own domination of North America matching the win streak set by that rookie C9 team three years earlier. Much like how TSM was unable to stop C9 in 2013, C9 was could not stop TSM in 2016.

These upcoming finals more closely echo those that took place in Summer of 2014. Back then Cloud 9 had remained the top team in the region for several splits. TeamSoloMid slowly upgraded its players and staff to better combat C9 and take back the NA title C9 had denied them. Over the two most recent splits Cloud 9 has undergone a rebuilding of its own to better combat TSM. Last split Cloud 9’s starting roster parted ways with three of its original line up in order to evolve into something greater. An “Balls” Le, Daerek “LemonNation” Heart, and longtime shotcaller, as well as captain, and face of the Cloud 9 organization, Hai “Hai” Du Lam all left the Cloud 9 starting roster for good. The team brought in former world champion top laner Jung “Impact” Eon-yeong and reinstated William “Meteos” Hartman back to his old position as the C9 Jungler. The team also experimented with the Support position but ultimately settled on Andy “Smoothie” Ta. Lastly Cloud 9 brought in legendary Korean Top-laner and coach Bok “Reapered” Han-gyu to facilitate and develop the team into champions.

Unfortunately for Cloud 9 they came up just short of their goal, as they had to go up against the powerhouse 17–1 TSM. However, much like C9 in Summer 2014 TSM look weaker than they did last split. Their star AD Carry Peng “Doublelift” Yilang chose to take a break from the competitive scene. In his absence TSM reacquired former TSM AD Carry “Wildturtle” though his performance have left much to be desired when compared to his predecessor. TeamSoloMid are the number one team, but their weaknesses are clear. They have flaws that can be exploited and if there was ever a time for Cloud 9 to take back the crown from their long-time rivals it would be now.

In the offseason, Meteos like Doublelift chose to take a step back from the competitive scene. After his departure, Cloud 9 promoted their rookie challenger Jungler Juan “Contractz” Garcia to the starting line-up. Contractz has brought almost a polar opposite Jungling style to C9 than that of his predecessor. He is a much more playmaking oriented Jungler than “Meteos” who opts to get his lanes ahead early. Rather than power-farm himself a gold lead over the opposing Jungler the way Meteos preferred to do. This has led Cloud 9 to mixed results. In the regular season Contractz was a very feast or famine player. The team overall likes to play it safe in the early game and wait till the mid and late game to out-teamfight their opponents into victory. This strategy has led to varying degrees of success for Cloud 9. Against teams such as TSM they fell short of victory in Week 5.

In the hopes of trying to add a new dimension to the team Cloud 9 also picked up rising star Korean top-laner Jeon “Ray” Ji-won. Ray was one of the best carry top laners in the league the previous split and C9 brought him on in the hopes of developing him into the next superstar carry. The results have been what most experts would expect thus far; varied. Ray continues to have moments of both mechanical brilliance and individual stupidity every time he takes to the rift. When Ray is on the rift Cloud 9 elects to put him on a strong 1v1 champion like Renekton or Camille and conform to a split-push strategy. Whereas with Impact they prefer him to play teamfight oriented tanks like Nautilus for teleport flanks, joining in mid and late game teamfights. Both “Impact” and “Ray” have proven to be strong players and the experiment of adding a new dimension C9 seems to be finally paying off.

The Prediction:

It has been three years since Cloud 9 has held the title of North American Champions. This will be their fourth appearance since actually winning the title and, in my opinion, it is by far their best chance to win it all. Before getting in-depth with statistics and analytics I do believe Cloud 9 will defeat TeamSoloMid in the finals. Though both teams have slightly struggled in the regular season trying to make their new rosters work, there is a clear difference.

TSM put Wildturtle back into the lineup and almost immediately realized that things were going to be drastically different from the previous split. To put it simply Wildturtle is not Doublelift. Wildturtle was never going to be able to generate the kind of CS leads that Doublelift could create last split. TSM’s once guaranteed control and pressure bottom lane has instead turned into the primary weakness of the team. TSM has instead been forced to shift their focus to the top lane, with Kevin “Hauntzer” Yarnell becoming the secondary carry of the team.

TSM has had to learn how to play not only without one of their former strengths, but mainly damage control their roster in order to make it work. Once TSM finally figured out how to play with Wildturtle in the lineup things became more stable. TSM still consistently dropped game 1’s in the second half of the split, but the team did look healthier. That is perhaps the best way to describe this current TSM roster. They try to minimize their poor early game and defeat their opponents in the late game.

Cloud 9’s roster throughout the split was not defined by trying to stay at the same level they were the previous split. Rather, they have been working on all aspects of their play to become a better team than they were last split.

C9 added a more active Jungler, another carry threat in the top lane, and improved their existing lanes Cloud 9. This did not come without some minor struggles. Cloud 9 did lose four series in the regular split and a few of them rather poorly. However, these losses are expected out of a team that is experimenting with most of the fundamental aspects of why they were successful.

Cloud 9 experimented in the two most stable positions on their team in spring 2017. Yet, Cloud 9 were not given the same type of leniency of expectation that other teams like Dignitas were. This is primarily due to the fact that they started the split with an 8–0 record. The players themselves said they were shocked by how successful they were, and expected to struggle a lot more because of how inexperienced their new players were.

Cloud 9 have developed new strengths this split, slowly shoring up their flaws and continuing to elevate their game. While TeamSoloMid appears as though they are trying to hold on to their first-place spot without developing the team at all

There is also a case to be made, unlike last split, in terms of individual talent Cloud 9 has the advantage. The most obvious of these advantages comes from the bottom lane. Sneaky and Smoothie have been pound for pound the best bottom lane in the league this split. Despite the fact there is a case to be made Sneaky has had a bit of a down season.

The Jungle match-up is where TSM would have the strongest advantage, though after seeing Contractz and Svenkeren’s semi-finals performances I am a lot less sure of which way it will go. TSM’s strongest players are in the top and mid lane. Unfortunately for TSM, Cloud 9 is one of the only teams in the league that can match up in both of those lanes.

Nicolaj “Jensen” Jensen and Soren “Bjergsen” Bjerg have both been without a doubt the two strongest mid lanes in the league. While I do think Bjergsen is the better player, Jensen has shown he is capable of taking down the king of mid lane in NA. Despite the praise he has received all season, Hauntzer has not actually impressed me very much. His “standout” performances are not on the level Ray and Impact have both shown to be capable of when they hard carry.

The true nail in the coffin comes from the coaching staff. There really is no contest here, while Andy “Reginald” Dinh has a profound impact on TSM he can’t hold a candle to Reapered. Regi is more of an authoritarian leader who motivates the team to do better, rather than proposes a good game strategy. He has Path “Parth” Naidu to back him up and give sounder strategic advice, though we all know how bizarre his drafts can be.

Reapered seems to be able to do both and then some. It is often difficult to judge just how good or what kind of impact the coaching staff has however so even talking about these two is almost hyperbole. What we can say is that Reapered has some of, if not, the best drafts in the league. He has a deep understanding of the game and helped build this team from the ground up. I respect Regi as a leader, but as a coach there is little contest.

This will be a very close series when it really comes down to it. If I was a beating man I would say that this series will go the distance and we will get a full 5 game series.

The Breakdown:

Top Lane: Hauntzer vs Ray/Impact

The most interesting match-up in the series, and perhaps the deciding factor, the top lane is critical for both TSM and C9. Interestingly there are three players to talk about here instead of just two. Hauntzer has had a career split and is likely to win MVP of the league, despite how I may personally feel *cough* Lira *cough*. He has stepped up since the departure of Doublelift and statistically is the best top laner in North America. Last split critics would argue that he did not deserve that title, sighting he was simply the beneficiary of how good the rest of the team was. This split that argument does not really apply since Hauntzer has been one of the main carries on the team.

Hauntzer has the highest KDA of top laners in the league at 4.4 and boasts an impressive 68.1% kill participation, the highest among top laners in the league. Impact and Ray have a 4.3 and 2.4 KDA respectively, as well as 64.9% and 55.3% kill participation. While Hauntzer does have the edge against the C9 top laners in several categories one should keep in mind the fact that Hauntzer has played more games than both of them. Hauntzer has a plus 2 CSD@10, whereas Impact comes in with 1.7 and Ray at -2.6. I found this stat very interesting because Ray was supposed to be a more dominant lane presence than Impact.

C9 elects to use Ray for split-pushing as can be seen by his champion pool. Ray has played 10 games in the regular season and has played a unique champion in almost every single game. His preferred picks are Jarvan the Fourth, his career staple, and Renekton. So, with such strong lane matchups and a player who many perceived to be mechanically brilliant why is he behind? Well this comes down to the amount of attention that Ray attracts to the enemy Junglers.

Ray likes to fight and his playstyle in lane is very focused on winning small trades. This means that he and his opponent are often low, with Ray playing forward in the lane. This preferred style of play attracts a lot of Jungle attention, and explains why Ray dies so often in lane. Ray has 25.7% of his team’s deaths, while Hauntzer and Impact have 21.2% and 19.5% themselves.

Though one cannot ignore the fact that Ray is not playing tanks like Impact and Hauntzer tend to do. Impact and Hauntzer’s three most played champions are Maokai, Nautilus, and Shen. These picks are hardly going to die often, or ever, in the laning phase and only get more difficult to kill as the game progresses. Ray’s combination of playstyle and champion choice that lead him to have a weak laning phase… when you look at stats by themselves.

In game it is quite clear that Ray is not a player that most top laners want to go against. The constant harass and pressure that he pours onto his opponent are noticably annoying to deal with. Especially since Ray is perhaps the most unique top laner in the league in terms of such aggression. Ray’s damage per minute is the highest of all top laners in the league at 467. Even with the lane disadvantages and continued focus against him he is still putting out substantial numbers.

If I were TSM I would stick to their typical strategy in spring and play around Top. Bjergsen and Dennis “Svenskeren” Johnsen frequently roam top together to help Hauntzer get a kill, or pressure the enemy laner off the tower to secure first turret gold. Now with the very tempting idea that Ray will make a mistake TSM can punish him greatly. If I were Cloud 9 with Ray on the rift my advice would be to draw Jungle attention elsewhere. If C9 can successfully get Ray onto a carry pick like Camille or Renekton, while also creating pressure in bottom or by counter Jungling, Sveskeren’s attention will be forced away from Top lane. In this way, C9 can let Hauntzer and Ray fight on their own. If Ray does not make a foolish mistake, as he has been known to do, then C9 should have Hauntzer under their control.

The continued aggression and pressure that Ray creates in lane may also make it difficult for Hauntzer to do what he so often likes to which is to roam mid lane. All throughout spring Hauntzer has left lane when he has a lead after shoving a wave, or when the enemy has backed at an inopportune time. He either invades with Svenskeren to secure a blue buff steal, or more often ganks for Bjergsen. This added pressure in the mid lane propels Bjergsen ahead and allows for him to take the mid lane tower more easily and spread his lead across the rest of the map. If Ray keeps Hauntzer top lane through continued pressure this typical and effective pattern might finally be broken, but that is no easy task.

Ray has incredible performances in more than half of the games that he has played this season. Outstanding triple kills on J4, a great quadra kill on Renekton, and single handedly split-pushing his way to victory on Jayce. Hauntzer is perhaps the more complete package of the two, but Hauntzer has not made these types of plays this split, whereas Ray makes them half of the time that he is on the rift. Now that is a difference of style surely, but if I were TSM and Hauntzer I would not be cockily stating “I’m a lot better than both of them.” Especially when Ray is the weaker of the two top laners that C9 has at their disposal.

Impact has been considered one of the best top laners in the region pretty much ever since he came to NA. Unfortunately this season he has not consistently shown the excellent performances he is known for. Impact was expected to come back to NA an establish himself as the best top laner in the region. Instead his time on the rift was split with Ray, and the times that he was on the rift were not impressive. Impact, like most of C9, had a very bad week 5 during the regular season, which in the minds of many guaranteed Hauntzer’s title as best in his role in the region.

Beyond that week, Impact has been slowing returning to the form that was expected of him back in January. His champion pool mirrors Hauntzer’s which will allow C9 to take away some of Hauntzer’s best champions; like Nautilus. Cloud 9 also plays better as a unit with Impact in the top lane. His TP flanks are better than Ray’s and equal to if not better than Hauntzer’s.

Impact’s critics point to week 5 where C9 lost to TSM and Hauntzer appeared to edge out Impact in almost every way. Though how soon they should forget not even a year ago Impact dumpstered Huni and Reignover, a duo who had dominated the league throughout the year, so bad Huni left the region.

Impact’s carry performances, just like Ray, have been more impressive than the carry performances we have seen from Hauntzer. The TSM Top-laner has had the better season of these three players, but Cloud 9 have many options to choose from when dealing with him.

Jungle: Svenskeren vs Contractz

If you had asked me about this match-up before the semi-finals I would have told you that Svenskeren is the better Jungler. From a statistical standpoint, there is a case to be made against Svenskeren certainly. He has a lower KDA of 3.0 versus Contractz’ 3.7, as well as a slightly higher DTH% during the regular season at 27.4% compared to 24.2%. Svenskeren is an aggressive player, we have known this throughout his entire career. He likes to gank often and has the ability to take over the game. This of course can and does result in him dying due to over aggression or foolish invades.

Although Svenskeren does have a much higher first blood percentage at 36% to Contractz’ 27%. As well as having a lower CSD@10 minutes with -1.7 compared to -4.8. So not only is Svenskeren ganking more often but he is also acquiring more farm at the same time. With nearly identical damage and gold share, 16.8% DMG% and 19% GOLD% each; In the regular season Svenskeren performed better than Contractz.

I also was disappointed when Contractz received the rookie of the split award. I felt that Matthew “Akaadian” Higginbotham’s had much better and impactful performances, and was on a much worse team than Contractz. The few standout performances that Contractz did have are likely the reason that he received the award. His best game of the split he absolutely destroyed Immortals on Rengar racking up 10 kills in something like 7 minutes. Contractz again repeated this type of performance in the semi-final match-up against Phoenix1. Contractz was extremely active in the early game creating pressure mid lane and killing Ryu “Ryu” Sang-wook multiple times. He controlled and significantly reduced Rami “Inori” Charagh’s ability to impact the map, as well as came back after falling behind early against Meteos.

In the post-season, this match-up has become so much more interesting. When compared after their semi-finals showings Contractz appears to have the upper hand with a KDA of 14.5 that dwarfs Svenskeren’s 4.4. Contractz is outputting more damage per minute at 391 in contrast with Svenskeren’s 332 and a DMG% of 21.9% and 16% respectively. I was surprised to see how little damage Contractz was putting out when compared to Svenskeren, though that is perhaps due to the fact that TSM’s games against Flyquest were generally longer than C9’s against Phoenix1.

This begs the question of which version of these two players will actually make it onto the rift? Will Contractz be hard carrying in the early game? Will Svenskeren continue to die endlessly? While I do think that the Jungle match-up is important in the early stages of the game it is probably going to be the least important role in determining the outcome of the series. If we are to follow a trend line then Svenskeren will probably be the slightly weaker player of the two due to his over-aggression, tendency to die for no reason, and lack luster performance against Flyquest.

Mid: Bjergsen vs Jensen

We finally get to talk about the two guys who everyone will have their eyes one. Jensen vs Bjergsen has been the featured match-up every single time that these two teams meet since Jensen arrived all the way back in summer 2015; and with good reason. The mid lane is pivotal to the way these two teams play the game. Both Bjergsen and Jensen are the primary carries on their teams. The way each of these players performs will likely determine which team comes out the victor.

From a statistical stand point Jensen and Bjergsen are similar in most of the major categories. In the regular season, Jensen’s kill participation is enormous at 70.4%, Bjergsen’s is not far behind at 68.7%. It is clear that kills are not happening across the map unless the mid laners of TSM and Cloud 9 are involved. Their KDA is comparable at 5.4 for Jensen and 5.5 for Bjergsen, and their first blood percentage is 20% and 17% respectively. Their CSD@10 is almost identical at 7.4 for the C9 mid laner and 7.8 for TSM’s Bjerger King. As well as sharing similar DMG% numbers at 28% and 27.3% respectively.

Where they begin to differ are in stats such as CSPM, where Jensen has 9.7 and Bjerg is down at 9.0. This was surprising to first learn seeing as how often Svenskeren and Hauntzer hover around the mid lane. We often hear about how good Jensen is in lane, but you can really see the extent of this when you look at the numbers. The difference in their damage is also quite significant, Jensen boasts 588 damage per minute while Bjerg is down at 508.

It is easy to see from a statistical perspective just how impactful Jensen and Bjergsen are for their team. It comes as no surprise that their teams play heavily around getting their mid laner ahead. Though here is where the real separation between these players becomes clear. Jensen may look like the stronger player he tunnels on the mid lane. Jensen is so focused on trying to remain ahead of his lane opponent he almost never leaves the mid lane.

This type of playstyle is fine on a team like Cloud 9 where the rest of the lanes are usually dont need him roaming around. Though against teams such as TSM where their mid laner likes to roam it is problematic. The leads that the enemy can generate by impacting other lanes can result in greater leads than Jensen can acquire by staying in the mid lane. TSM usually have Bjergsen roam from mid for a Jungle invade or to pressure top lane. On picks such as his trademark Syndra these types of roams are devastating.

In terms of individual skill Jensen can and has shown the ability to beat Bjergsen in lane, and Bjerg can do the same right back. Cloud 9 like to draft around saving mid lane for last pick, in order to give Jensen a strong match-up. The drafts will likely be Syndra and Orianna back and forth for each team, perhaps with Cassiopeia sprinkled inbetween.

Orianna is by far Jensen’s most successful pick and the counter pick for Syndra. If there is one thing you can bet on it is that TSM will prioritize Syndra for Bjergsen. I also would not be surprised to see Jensen pick up Ekko. It has developed into a great match-up against Syndra and in the past Jensen has shown preference towards the champion.

My game plan for TSM would be to just continue to play the game the way they always do. Try to get Bjergsen on a strong pick and harass Jensen as much as possible with roams from top and jungle. Then in the mid game have Bjergsen roam and extend his lead to other parts of the map.

For Cloud 9 they should try to disrupt TSM’s typical pattern as much as possible. One way to do this would be to pressure Svenskeren in his jungle pathing, or go super ham in one or both of the side lanes.

Bot: Sneaky/Smoothie vs Wildturtle/Biofrost

Cloud 9 has the much stronger bottom lane coming into this series. There were many questions surrounding Vincent “Biofrost” Wang when after the team in won the league title in summer 2016. Critics were asking how much of the success from the bottom duo was “Biolift” contributing, and how much was he just getting carried by his superstar ADC. Time has eventually proven that Biofrost is a competent laner and talent. Although now being parred with Turtle has shown just how much he was getting carried. In a meta where the traditional best supports in the region like Zaqueri “Aphromoo” Black have completely fumbled on picks like Zyra and MF support it was Bio’s time to shine. Instead Biofrost was just one of the many supports that left everyone wanting more. The lack luster performances of the supports in the region have elevated Smoothie to shine brighter than all the rest.

Smoothie has performed as the best player in his position in North America. He has good roams with Contractz to obtain vision control around mid and in the enemy jungle. Smoothie also contributes a great laning phase, where he and Sneaky often come out ahead of their opponent. Smoothie has a first blood percentage of 23% compared to Bio’s 6%. Their wards per minute are pretty much identical at 1.44 and 1.41 apiece. While Biofrost is certainly not a bad player, Smoothie just looks a lot sharper.

Smoothie has continued his successful play after Worlds, where he looked like the best performing player on Cloud 9. He has stated he is a player whom wants to make plays happen. This is a great addition to C9, seeing as how they have such a poor early game where nothing seems to happen. TSM fans may claim that they win by exploiting these early weaknesses, though they should remember that TSM is not a strong early game team this split either. They try to survive the laning phase and win in the mid to late game. Biofrost is still an effective unit of his team in the supportive style he plays, but I don’t think there is anyone who really would contest that this split it has been all about Smoothie.

That just leaves the AD Carries, who are the only two players who were a part of that first TSM final all the way back in summer 2013. Wildturtle has unanimously been sighted as the primary weakness of TSM this split. His first blood percentage is at 4% whereas Sneaky’s is up at 20% in the regular season. This shows how often C9’s duo is able to beat their opponents, or at the very least, have Contractz come down and impact the lane duo lane into an advantage.

This lack of control bottom is problematic when you are trying to secure control of dragon. Cloud 9 have had pretty good control over the dragon area all split long. TSM have struggled due to how much they require help in the 2v2. This is drastically worse from last split where TSM would be able to get free drakes off their opponents not even wanting to challenge the buff.

Wildturtle’s damage numbers are also not a point of strength. In the regular season Wildturtle’s DMG% was only 23.7% of this team’s damage. Sneaky’s DMG% was up at 26.3%, though you might not think that there is a very big difference there until you look at the gold distribution. Wildturtle is actually earning more gold that Sneaky and has worse damage numbers. Wildturtle’s earned gold per minute is 273.4 or 22.7% of his team’s gold, and his CS% post 15 minutes is at 27.3%. Sneaky’s stats here are 269.5, 22.5%, and 25.7% respectively. These numbers are not very far in Wildturtle’s favor, but when looking at the damage numbers Sneaky is far more efficient with his gold. Wildturtle’s damage per minute is only at 435, while Sneaky’s is at 546. Wildturtle has the lowest damage per minute output of any other AD Carry in the league.

This revelation may lead one to think TSM had to make Hauntzer the secondary carry of the team not by choice, but by necessity. Wildturtle is not carrying in teamfights where he was expected to.

The picks here are fairly boring, seeing as how the entire split the AD Carry pool has remained virtually the same. Sneaky made his name on utility AD Carries such as Ashe, Varus, and is known as the best NA Jhin. Wildturtle is still a solid player, but would take him over Sneaky?

The game plan for TSM should be to try and roam Bjergsen bottom as much as possible. The TSM bot lane probably wont get smashed, but when they went up against Team Liquid’s bottom lane and Doublelift we saw just how much the TSM duo can be abused. C9 should look to try and get a strong lane match-up with Karma and shove TSM under turret. This will allow for ward control mid, in the TSM jungle, and around the dragon pit. It is no surprise here that I am giving C9 the advantage in the bottom lane because they are just all around the stronger players.

Cloud 9 have their best shot to take the NA title in years. The stars seem to be aligning in their favor. Their opponents are extremely flawed. All that remains is for the boys in blue to do what they have been unable to do since 2014: beat TSM in a best of 5.

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