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Economists size up 2019

It’s time for economists to make their predictions for the year ahead. Among the main questions: What are the biggest threats to the U.S. economy, and will the country fall into a recession?

Trade tensions are the top concern. About 47.3 percent of the economists surveyed by the WSJ said the continuing conflict between the U.S. and China was the biggest economic risk of 2019. About one in five cited disruptions in the financial markets as their biggest worry, and 12.7 percent were most worried about a slowdown in business investment.

Don’t sweat rising interest rates. Only 7.3 percent of the economists polled by the WSJ said Fed rate increases were the biggest threat to the economy. Economists told the WSJ and Reuters that they only expect two increases next year.

Expect a recession soon(ish). Over half of the economists polled by the WSJ expect a recession to start in 2020, and slightly more than one in four expect it in 2021. Just one in ten expect a recession next year. Economists surveyed by Reuters put the chances of a recession in the next two years at 40 percent; Pimco has put the odds of one next year at 30 percent. Make of all that what you will.