An Open Field

A circuit race comprising nine laps around a 27km loop, GP Ouest France provides just enough tough climbs to keep you guessing until the very end: recent races have come down to late attacks battling a hard-charging peloton full of sprinters to the line. The 2013 startlist reflects this trend, with a number of powerful sprinters and aggressive attackers making the trip to Brittany. Last year saw Edvald Boasson Hagen launch a last minute assault over the final climb of Ty Marrec to catch and pass soloist Rui Costa, while the bunch finished just behind them. 2011 offered a similar result, with Grega Bole striking out with 2 kilometers remaining and just managing to beat a Simon Gerrans-led pack to the finish. With the same route as the 2012 edition, this year’s GP Ouest France is likely to offer a similar script (though neither Gerrans or Bole are here to see it through): each lap around the town of Plouay will drop more competitors, as attackers try to get ahead and stay ahead and the chasers give dogged pursuit. Perhaps a late break will stay clear, or perhaps the peloton will reel all attackers in and give the day to a sprinter, as happened in 2010, when Matt Goss took the victory. The two biggest questions will be: will the pack catch everyone who breaks for glory, and if so, who will be the fastest man left?

There will be no shortage of elite tough sprinter types making the trip, and many of the names that featured heavily in the Vattenfall Cyclassics will do so again here. A few stand out to me. Chief among them is Alexander Kristoff, who took third in the Cyclassics behind John Degenkolb and Andre Greipel. He’s had a phenomenal year with top 10s in so many big, grueling one-day races, including all three Monument Classics he’s taken on so far. In his favor, GP Ouest France is a much harder race than Vattenfall (Andre Greipel isn’t racing, as the parcours is too challenging for a rider like him), and Kristoff is a high endurance sprinter who relishes the sorts of difficulties that could wear down even the others in that class of rider. John Degenkolb has a reputation for a similar skill set, and he is sure to be a threat here, but the inclines here will certainly push him to the limit. It’s been hard to predict Degenkolb’s performance this year, as he has peppered two beautiful wins in with a bunch of duds, and he has a tendency to disappear when you expect him to make a statement. Still, he obviously has the talent and the form, and with so many contenders, a good leadout will be all-important, and Argos-Shimano knows how to lead out its stars. Giacomo Nizzolo has been in the top 10 here in back-to-back years, and he’ll be extra motivated after a very frustrating Vattenfall Cyclassics, in which Lotto’s Marcel Sieberg swerved in front of him in the final moments, causing him to brake and miss out on the last push for the line. He’s looking extremely fast right now. Elia Viviani and Arnaud Demare are also great candidates for a bunch sprint victory. Viviani managed a nice 5th place in that race and has had good results this year, and showing a lot of versatility in the Giro. Demare couldn’t find an opening in Hamburg and came across a disappointing 10th, but he’s shown elite speed very recently and is a decent enough climber that he should be able to hang on. Thor Hushovd leads a very strong BMC team and will look to pick up more results to continue something of a resurgence. Lotto-Belisol’s Jurgen Roelandts loves this sort of terrain. AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, Movistar’s JJ Rojas and Francisco Ventoso, Steele von Hoff of Garmin-Sharp, Hushovd’s teammate Adam Blythe, and Saxo-Tinkoff’s Matti Breschel and Daniele Bennati are other names to watch in a sprint. 2010 winner Matt Goss gets an obligatory mention, and if he manages to stay with the pack he would be, if at his best, one of the fastest men here, but that’s a lot of ifs.

I see Daryl Impey as a potentially better option for Orica-GreenEdge: he’s one of a number of in-betweener type riders who will hope the inevitable cat and mouse game over the hilly profile drops the Degenkolbs and Vivianis, leaving the survivors to fight it out in a very reduced sprint or with late attacks of their own. Impey’s form in the Eneco Tour was impressive: he was at his best on the very trying final two stages of that race, and should be able to hang on if his teammate fails. Greg Van Avermaet also has a fast finish and is coming off of a successful trip to the USA, where he showed off some capable climbing legs; if things don’t work out for Hushovd, Van Avermaet has a chance, as does Taylor Phinney, who has a great combination of straight line speed and endurance, though he doesn’t have much of a climber’s physique. Tony Gallopin’s all-rounder package makes him a candidate to win in either a bunch gallop or an aggressive strike over the Ty Marrec. Michal Kwiatkowksi has not done much since the Tour, but he is an even more complete rider than Gallopin, and should he be on form, he’ll be dangerous. Astana sends a trio of all-round threats in Francesco Gavazzi, Borut Bozic, and Simone Ponzi, who had a very successful Vuelta a Burgos, and can finish hard after a long day in the saddle: keep an eye on him. Cannondale’s inconsistent but talented Moreno Moser, Belkin’s Lars Boom, Sky’s Geraint Thomas, and Lampre’s Filippo Pozzato also fit the bill of versatile fast-finishers.

Edvald Boasson Hagen won last year by bridging the gap between the bunch and a soloing Rui Costa. Costa returns to the start list, and he is one of the best among a third bevy of riders, those who will need to launch up the inclines ahead of the peloton to give themselves a chance at victory. Alberto Contador is also in attendance, and he’s unlikely to pass up a shot at victory if he sees it. Sylvain Chavanel leads a strong Omega Pharma-Quick Step squad in his home country, and with time trialing talents this big, a long distance strike from one of them seems likely. Michael Albasini of Orica-GreenEdge will see this as a perfect opportunity for his style of riding. With so many combative riders on the start list, it would be impossible to name everyone with a shot at breaking away, but I’ll give a few names I think could jump ahead: Ramunas Navardauskas, Katusha’s Alexandr Kolobnev and Simon Spilak, almost anyone from Euskaltel, Rein Taaramae, Wilco Kelderman, and any number of strong Frenchmen, including Julien Simon, Pierrick Fedrigo and the Europcar duo of Rolland and Voeckler. Voeckler looked pretty uninspiring in the Tour de France, but he just won a smaller French stage race (the Tour du Poitou Charentes) and he won here all the way back in 2007. Regardless of the result this year, he’s sure to at least earn some screen time with his signature grimace-heavy attacks.

While many of the same fast men from the Vattenfall Cyclassics are in attendance, the outcome of the GP Ouest France will be far harder to predict, given the aggressive nature of the riding and the varied outcomes of the recent past. All things considered, I’d probably take Kristoff, Nizzolo, and Demare to hang on and lead the pack over the line, but whether they’ll be fighting for second or third behind someone like Greg Van Avermaet or Sylvain Chavanel is tough to say. As usual, I will name the guys I think are most likely to contend for Top 10 placings, but naming Degenkolb, for instance, as an outside top 10 contender doesn’t mean I think he’s going to come in 8th behind a bunch of other sprinters on my list: he’s likely to either be right near the top of the leaderboard, or nowhere to be seen; the same goes for the solo attacker types, as it is just too hard to predict who will get into the right break, and whether they will hang on or get swallowed up and finish well outside the top 50. No matter what happens, it will certainly be an awesome show.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Alexander Kristoff

Podium

Giacomo Nizzolo, Arnaud Demare

Top 10

Thor Hushovd, John Degenkolb, Greg Van Avermaet, Sylvain Chavanel, Daryl Impey, Elia Viviani, Michal Kwiatkowski

Under the Radar Challenger

Simone Ponzi

-Dane Cash

Photo by kaveman743.