General Motors has all but bet its future on the Chevrolet Volt, but the government says the range-extended electric vehicle won't save the beleaguered automaker.

"While the Volt holds promise, it likely will be too expensive to be commercially successful in the short term," President Obama's auto task force said in its assessment of GM's restructuring plan.

The panel soundly criticized the restructuring plan GM submitted as part of its request for a federal bailout, saying it relies on unrealistic and overly optimistic projections. The task force believes GM can become a competitive automaker, but only by shaking up its management — which is why Obama essentially fired CEO Rick Wagoner — and accelerating its restructuring.

"A great deal of progress needs to be made," the panel said in its five-page summary (.pdf) assessing GM's proposal, "and GM's plan contemplates initiatives that will take many years to complete."

Among them is the Chevrolet Volt, which the White House calls too little, too late and too expensive.

GM says the range-extended electric car will be in showrooms by the end of next year; the first production prototypes will be on the road in June. The four-door sedan will deliver 40 miles on a charge; a small gasoline engine will recharge the battery as it approaches depletion, extending its range by as much as 200 miles. The car is expected to cost around $40,000.

"While the Volt holds promise, it is currently projected to be much more expensive than its gasoline-fueled peers and will likely need significant reductions in manufacturing costs in order to become commercially viable," the president's task force wrote.

General Motors concedes the car is expensive but argues costs will quickly come down as the technology is established.

"It's the first generation of transformational technology," spokesman Rob Peterson told Wired.com. "It's expensive. We're aware of that. But we think there's a business case for plug-in electric vehicles."

The company plans to sell the Volt worldwide; it will appear in Europe as the Opel Ampera in 2011 and in Australia as the Holden Volt one year later. Peterson says General Motors is already looking ahead to "generation two and generation three" — it unveiled the Cadillac Converj concept at the Detroit auto show — though he wouldn't say what those vehicles might be or when they'll appear.

"As you sell more plug-in electric vehicles, costs will come down," he said. "It won't happen overnight. It won't happen within the first year. But the engineering team is already looking at generation two."

GM likes to boast that the Volt leapfrogs the Toyota Prius and Honda Insight because those vehicles rely in large part on gasoline to drive the wheels. The Volt uses only electricity for propulsion; the engine serves only to recharge the lithium-ion battery. But the task force says GM bet too heavily on the Volt when it should be building better, more efficient small cars.

"GM is at least one generation behind Toyota on advanced 'green' powertrain development," the panel wrote. "In an attempt to leapfrog Toyota, GM has devoted significant resources on the Chevy Volt."

Peterson concedes Toyota clearly has the advantage when it comes to hybrids. But he notes that GM produces eight hybrids and offers 18 vehicles that get 30 mpg or better — more than any other major automaker. The company also has invested in cellulosic ethanol startups and offers a large number of cars that run on E85. It also plans to have the 45-mpg Chevrolet Cruze on the road next year, and the 40-mpg Spark microcar also is in the works.

"They have a head start on us, absolutely," he said, referring to Toyota's hybrid advantage. "But to say we haven't done anything is a stretch. There's no shortage of effort."

Photo: General Motors

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