Augur Weekly posts are public. If someone you know might like this content, please share it!

Share

Election Betting Roundup

Massive swings to the upside (or downside) such as the one in the Steyer | Debate | Qualification market evoke a wide range of emotions. Bystanders experience a wave of excitement, there’s major euphoria for the non-consensus and right, and startling disappointment for those who were ‘playing it safe’.

Prediction market prices plotted on a chart can tell compelling tales of volatile shifts in sentiment as a result of information becoming more complete. In the above Steyer-Debate chart, one can see the various phases of this story. After falling to as low as 2c/share in the afternoon, the market began to adapt to changes in information. The initial stir began picking up steam at ~3:30pm, presumably influenced by insiders privy to the results of a Fox poll that would have surprising implications for Tom Steyer’s eligibility in the January Democratic debate.

The next wave and biggest candle forms at 4pm; as the poll is made public, the price for yes/qualification scaled from 10c/share to 80c/share in a matter of minutes. A frenzy of activity occurs between 4pm-5pm, and amidst the surprise and confusion the price is briefly bid down to nearly 40c/share before rallying all the way to a virtual certainty at 99c/share shortly after 5pm. That’s it, folks. Less than two hours of madness left many shocked, those that capitalized on the 4900% rise ecstatic, and those that were on the other side bewildered.

More examples of huge swings in recent political betting history:

Brexit, 2016

Clinton/Trump, 2016

Trump Impeachment, 2019

A lot has changed since we last checked in on the DemNom market. Elizabeth Warren completed her plunge from pole sentiment position in the Fall to well behind the two current frontrunners, Sanders and Biden. Buttigieg, likewise, saw a reversal in the momentum he was establishing.

The market is currently giving one of Biden or Sanders a 71% probability of winning the race. It remains to be seen whether these two will continue their separation from the field, if Mayor Pete or Warren have one last push, or if a long-shot can begin a swing like Steyer and the debate qualification market.

Coming soon in Q1 2020, Augur will be the only platform for political betting with no limits, the lowest fees, and unbeatable odds.

To receive updates on Augur including this newsletter, sign up below:

Around the Ecosystem

More on Augur

Augur.net

Augur v2: A Tour of the Prediction Protocol’s First Major Upgrade

The Ultimate Guide to Decentralized Prediction Markets

Augur Master Plan

Announcing the Augur v1 Cutoff

Augur v2 Transition Update

The Forecast Foundation has no role in the operation of markets, trades or actions created or performed on the Augur protocol, nor does it have the ability to censor, restrict, control, modify, change, revoke, terminate or make any changes to markets created on the Augur protocol. The Forecast Foundation has no more control over the Augur protocol than anyone else using Ethereum.

Thus, we do not seek to advise others on how to use the protocol. We encourage those in the community who are well educated on Augur to pay it forward and share their ideas for best practices, tips, fixes, etc with the larger community via Twitter, Discord, Reddit, Github, and other community channels. For more information regarding the role of the Forecast Foundation, check out the FAQ.