PUNE: India is likely to face more heat waves this year, after a few thousand people lost their lives in Andhra Pradesh in 2015 due to the weather phenomenon.“As we had El Nino last year, it looks like we will have more heat waves this year,” said M Rajeevan, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).The El Nino forecast issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology during the day said, “El Niño remains strong, but continues its gradual decline. Climate models suggest a return to neutral levels in the second quarter of 2016.”India Meteorology Department, the official forecasting agency, is set to issue its first long range forecast of summer temperatures this year, helping businesses as well as general public.Andhra Pradesh and Telangana witnessed a severe heat wave last year. This year, according to IMD , the winter temperatures have been markedly above normal (5.0°C or more) in most parts of the country, and appreciably above normal (3.1 to 5.0°C) at most places over East Madhya Pradesh Jharkhand and Marathwada.Historically, IMD has been issuing long range forecast of only the monsoon rainfall. However, with changing weather pattern and demand from different sections of society, it will now also issue forecast of temperatures for the peak summer months of April, May and June.“We may issue the forecast of summer temperatures by end of February or by first week of March. It will be an advisory, an outlook. We may not tell when the temperatures will rise, etc. But we will give outlook about how much the temperature may remain higher than normal, the frequency of the heat waves, etc,” said Rajeevan.Along with agriculture, various industries whose business is dependent on the summer season had been asking the IMD to give forecast of summer temperatures. These include manufacturers of refrigerators, air conditioners, ice cream and cold drinks.The weather agency, which has decided to replace terms like ‘drought’ with deficient rainfall’ while issuing its monsoon forecast in 2016 as it “creates panic”, will use its existing ongoing models for the summer temperature forecasts.Rajeenvan said that the El Nino is expected to last for about two more months and that it will not be present during the next monsoon in India.According to the Australian agency, close to the equator, the surface of the Pacific Ocean has now cooled by 0.5 °C since the El Nino peaked in late 2015.Based on the 26 El Nino events since 1900, about 50% have been followed by a neutral year and 40% have been followed by La Nina. Models suggest the neutral state is the most likely for the second half of 2016, followed by La Nina, with a repeat El Nimo assessed as very unlikely.