There seems to be an ongoing narrative in Ann Arbor about “growth” and “development” that labels what’s transpired here as something of a boom town, an area of unchecked and rampant development that threatens the very fabric of our community. People see the retail and rooftops at the edges and perhaps most importantly the shiny new buildings downtown and the perception is we are experiencing a period of high growth, particularly in this extended period of economic expansion following the Great Recession. This has rankled me for some time because here’s the thing: it’s not even close to true.

I pulled data from a number of places to illustrate. One caveat here, the definition of Ann Arbor and the area is different depending on the data source and period of time. For the purposes of this post, I am largely focusing on the city of Ann Arbor and adjacent townships and leaving aside Ypsilanti for now. Thus subject market area is Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Township, Barton Hills, Scio Township, Lodi Township, Pittsfield Township, and Superior Township, generally encompassed in Zip Codes 48103, 48104, 48105, 48108, and 48109. First, just for a sense of bearing, here is the population for that selected geography:

Year Population 10 Year Growth 1900 20,994 1910 20,656 -1.61% 1920 24,958 20.83% 1930 35,471 42.12% 1940 45,074 27.07% 1950 76,597 69.94% 1960 93,375 21.90% 1970 130,785 40.06% 1980 146,900 12.32% 1990 159,480 8.56% 2000 186,174 16.74% 2010 197,252 5.95% 2020 221,471 12.28%

This data is from SEMCOG and that rosy 2020 number is obviously a projection but let’s say it holds true. The average growth over the last 100 years has been 23.99% per decade, 25.32% since WWII. Thus this decade, while a pickup from the previous 10 year period would still be half the population growth of an average decade. Hardly a “boom town”.

I also looked at development, both across all types and just focused on housing. Here is housing permit data, also from SEMCOG.

Year Single Family Two Family Attach Condo Multi Family Total Units 2000 850 10 163 63 1,086 2001 708 34 202 287 1,231 2002 624 8 414 120 1,166 2003 733 12 507 56 1,308 2004 646 12 370 217 1,245 2005 456 4 301 101 862 2006 186 12 114 64 376 2007 146 12 228 107 493 2008 93 4 21 100 218 2009 74 6 4 165 249 2010 125 2 35 0 162 2011 121 2 0 321 444 2012 165 4 22 348 539 2013 223 0 78 342 643 2014 202 4 21 440 667 2015 220 4 38 464 726 2016 244 4 66 347 661 2017 214 2 181 487 884 2018 284 0 206 764 1,254 2019 205 36 32 457 730 2000 to 2019 totals 6,519 172 3,003 5,250 14,944

This data is readily accessible in just the last two decades (I will continue mining for further back and will post an update) but it’s obvious that in recent times, current housing permits are no anomaly and certainly down from the early 2000’s, up from the recession.

Here is data compiled from CoStar regarding multi-family properties and year built.

Era All Units Market Rate Units Student Units Pre-1900 239 217 7 1900-1909 923 791 126 1910-1919 303 271 32 1920-1929 332 229 103 1930-1939 51 51 0 1940-1949 31 25 5 1950-1959 1,221 800 4 1960-1969 9,907 8,188 984 1970-1979 10,926 8,171 494 1980-1989 4,524 3,916 120 1990-1999 3,546 2,717 48 2000-2009 1,599 614 692 2010-2019 2,646 1,080 1,203 Total 36,248 27,070 3,818

Boom town appears to be from 1960 to 1980 here. The only thing that has really picked up is student housing which will be covered in more detail below.

Here is square footage of all commercial properties that CoStar tracks by year built. Again, recent development across the area approaching half of historic highs and down significantly from even recent years.

Era Square Feet Pre-1900 711,000 1900-1909 1,900,000 1910-1919 364,000 1920-1929 100,000 1930-1939 477,000 1940-1949 736,000 1950-1959 2,300,000 1960-1969 13,500,000 1970-1979 11,700,000 1980-1989 11,400,000 1990-1999 11,200,000 2000-2009 8,300,000 2010-2019 6,000,000

It’s pretty clear from just about any relevant piece of data that Ann Arbor is not experiencing some sort of out-sized development boom. In fact, growth is relatively modest historically, a far cry from even recent times. The 1960’s and 1970’s was a legitimate boom, relatively speaking.

No analysis would be complete without looking at the one outlier, likely the one driving the conversation the most, that being student housing. Since 2000, there have been 1,842 units of student housing added, representing 5,197 beds. In just the past decade, nine private high-rise student housing projects have been completed in the greater downtown area, dramatically changing the skyline. However, it’s important to note that the university enrollment has grown by 8,613 students since 2000. Even adding in the university’s new dorms, North Quad (450 capacity) and Munger Graduate Residences (630 capacity) there’s still 2,366 more students than beds built over the same time period. Furthermore, all of those developments are walking distance to campus with limited parking and are scheduled to pay annual real estate taxes of nearly $17,000,000(!). In short, if you’re an Ann Arbor resident, those projects are the just about the best thing that can happen, housing students close to campus, keeping cars off the road, and paying boatloads of taxes.

As always, to each his or her own but the data doesn’t lie.