Liberals widen gap, Conservatives stall in final poll

NDP down, razor-thin Liberal majority seen

TORONTO October 18th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1373 Canadian voters the day before the federal election, 4-in-10 will vote Liberal (40%), while 3-in-10 will vote Conservative (30%). The 10 point gap between the two parties has increased, 4 points higher since we last polled (October 14, Liberal - 37%, Conservatives - 31%). The NDP have one fifth of the vote (20%), down from about one quarter in our last poll (October 14 - 24%). The Green Party (3%) and the Bloc Quebecois (6%) are not competitive nationally, and very few will vote for other parties (1%).





Liberals Grasping at Majority Government

If these results are projected up to seats in the newly expanded House of Commons, the Liberals would take a slim majority of 171, which is 1 more than required for a majority, while the Conservatives would form the opposition with 109 seats. The NDP would seat 46 members, the Bloc 11, and the Greens would retain their single seat.

Liberals lead in every region but Alberta

Liberals have strong leads in the Atlantic provinces (59%), Quebec (36%) and Ontario (45%). They have smaller leads in the prairies (39%) and BC (37%), but it is only in Alberta that they are surpassed in voter preference by the Conservatives (57%). The NDP are in third everywhere except Quebec (21%) and they are challenged here by the Bloc (22%).

Justin Trudeau seen to be best PM

The largest group of voters, about 3-in-10, sees Justin Trudeau making the best Prime Minister (33%), compared to about one quarter for Stephen Harper (26%), and fewer for Tom Mulcair (20%).





One third vote in advance polls

One third of voters (30%) cast their vote before election day, and this is more likely to have been a New Democrat voter (35%) than either a Conservative (32%) or a Liberal (31%).

“Opinion polls are just snapshots in time, but at this time, it appears the race to govern Canada may be Justin Trudeau’s to lose. Stephen Harper has fallen out of favour and has relinquished the best tool in his box, his reputation for competence, as Trudeau has become entrenched as Canadians’ choice for best Prime Minister. It looks like we may have a new Prime Minister designate on Tuesday morning, and it’s not likely to be Tom Mulcair,” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.