Clinton dodges on transcripts again

HILLARY CLINTON DODGES ON TRANSCRIPTS AGAIN — Hillary Clinton was asked again at CNN’s town hall on Tuesday night whether she would release the transcripts of her paid speeches to Goldman Sachs and other banks. Again, she said she would if everybody else did. “Why is there one standard for me and not for everybody else?,” she asked. This is an artful dodge, of course. Bernie Sanders has said he will release the transcripts of any paid speech he made (and there aren’t many of them, and none to Wall Street).

And the Democratic contest is the one in play right now. Republican voters are much less concerned about what their candidates may or may not have said in paid speeches. Sources who either attended or have watched Clinton’s Goldman speeches have repeatedly told MM that they can’t imagine her releasing the transcripts because of all the friendly things she said about the bank and the financial industry in general.


But analyst Van Jones made an important point about this on CNN Tuesday night. Democratic voters who are concerned that Clinton is too centrist and too close to Wall Street (and really want to know what she said in her paid speeches) are already with Sanders. He needs to be able to grow his coalition beyond hardcore, anti-Wall Street liberals. And continuing to hammer Clinton over her ties to bankers isn’t going to do that. Clinton really has no incentive to release the speech transcripts, so don’t expect it to happen.

NEVADA RESULTS: TRUMP WINS — CNN called the Nevada caucuses for Donald Trump immediately after the voting ended. Florida Senator Marco Rubio was running second closely followed by Texas Senator Ted Cruz. Check Twitter or flip on the TV for the rest of the results this a.m..

THE TRUMP PHENOMENA — Neil Bouhan of BMO emails: “The Trump campaign, in many ways, resembles the 30-year bull market in US Treasuries. Many great investors and traders have been steamrolled trying to call the bottom in yields. ‘Rates just CAN’T go any lower!’ And yet … ”

MM ON THE GROUND — Your humble columnist is in Florida and had a long chat with an Uber driver about Trump (yes, Tom Friedman-style). The driver, a nice younger guy with kids who umpires spring training baseball, said he likes Trump because he can’t stand traditional politicians and wants major change in Washington. But he said he was unsure of what Trump would actually be able to do as president and was considering flipping to Rubio.

His dad, however, is deeply in love with Trump and would never consider changing his vote. What’s this worth? Not very much. But it did help demonstrate, at least to us, that not all of Trump’s voters are motivated by all his anti-immigrant rhetoric. And it offered a tiny, anecdotal microcosm of the challenge Rubio faces in convincing skeptical voters that he understands their frustrations and can offer them hope of significant change.

ON SECOND THOUGHT … DON’T BREAK UP THE BANKS — PIMCO’s Christian Stracke on the case to not break up the biggest banks: “Regulations are already helping. Since the crisis in 2008 — 2009, we have seen a wave of improvements in bank regulation and supervision, from the application of Basel III enhanced capital and liquidity requirements to much of the Dodd-Frank Act, robust stress testing and the move to greater transparency in bank risk disclosures.

“Also, several large banks have shrunk their balance sheets and reduced their operational complexity in recent years in the context of the emerging ‘living will’ resolution frameworks that require banks to plan ahead for a worst-case scenario. … A breakup could prompt another credit crunch. At least in the short term, we could expect any move to break up big banks would be disruptive to those banks and to many of their peers, and that disruption could easily spill into reduced lending activity.” http://bit.ly/1R00wW6

GOP GIVES A HARD NO ON SCOTUS — POLITICO’s Burgess Everett and John Bresnahan: “Senate Republicans will deny hearings to a Supreme Court nominee from President Barack Obama, senators said after a private meeting on Tuesday afternoon among Judiciary Committee Republicans. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said the panel had agreed to block even cursory hearings for any Obama nominee to fill the vacancy left by Justice Antonin Scalia's death. …

“On the Senate floor on Tuesday morning, McConnell quoted older remarks from Democrats, including Vice President Joe Biden and Sens. Chuck Schumer and Harry Reid, in defending his decision to prohibit confirmation of a new justice”

MM SIDENOTE — For Republicans who fear the wrath of the base in primary challenges, stopping the SCOTUS nomination in its tracks is perfectly logical. In addition, allowing hearings would potentially make a “no” vote politically difficult. Dems say they will make Senate Republicans running for re-election in swing states pay for this “obstruction.” We’ll see. They may be right.

GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING — Email me on [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @ morningmoneyben.

DRIVING THE DAY — Nevada caucus results will, hopefully, be fully upon us … House Financial Services Committee subcommittee has a hearing at 10:00 a.m. on “The Impact of the Dodd-Frank Act and Basel III on the Fixed Income Market and Securitizations” … House Ways and Means Committee has a hearing at 10:00 a.m. on the “Global Tax Environment in 2016 and Implications for International Tax Reform” … New home sales at 10:00 a.m. expected to dip to 520K from 550K.

THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES — Jon Prior on possible Fannie, Freddie settlement talks — and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m. — please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 [email protected]

CONSUMER HITS THE BREAKS — Bank of Tokyo MFJ’s Chris Rupkey: “Apparently the consumer is not as immune to all these nervous financial market headlines we have seen because all of a sudden in February the bottom fell out of consumer confidence falling to the lowest level in some time. We hope the consumer doesn't lose heart here because consumer spending is two-thirds of the economy and if the consumers stop spending like the drop in confidence suggests the economy could be in trouble here”

TRUMP’S CHALLENGE — WSJ’s Janet Hook and Arian Campo-Flores: “The Republican presidential campaign will barrel out of the Nevada caucuses and onto a much bigger battlefield, an 11-state contest that is a crucial test of whether … Trump will continue his march to the nomination or be slowed by another candidate. The March 1 Super Tuesday primaries cut deeply through the Bible Belt, featuring many of the most conservative and religious states in the nation. Mr. Trump is leading in polls in nearly all the states voting that day. He is most vulnerable in Texas, where home-state Sen. Ted Cruz is ahead.

“Since none of the states is winner-take-all, Mr. Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio have a chance to pile up delegates under rules that split them proportionally. Mr. Cruz will be working to win the backing of more evangelical Christians after a third-place finish in South Carolina, staff tumult and charges of underhanded campaign tactics. He has invested heavily in these southern states and will be battling Mr. Rubio, who is trying to gather establishment support to emerge as the leading alternative to Mr. Trump.” http://on.wsj.com/1KIUQmV

FUN CLICK: BORIS JOHNSON FOR PRESIDENT! — Reuters’ BreakingViews’ Richard Beales imagines London Mayor Boris Johnson getting kicked out of the UK and running for president in his native U.S.” http://reut.rs/1TEcxXi

MID-SIZE SECURITIES TRADERS LAUNCH GROUP — POLITICO’s Zachary Warmbrodt: “A set of middle-market investment banks and securities dealers including BB&T and Raymond James is trying to concentrate its lobbying power in a new trade group they're branding the American Securities Association. The group will be an umbrella organization that includes the existing Bond Dealers of America and the new Equity Dealers of America.

“The focus of the group will be influencing what its members see as a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach to financial regulation. Stephens chief operating officer Curt Bradbury will chair the association, and former Bloomberg LP senior director of global government affairs Chris Iacovella will be the equity affiliate's chief executive.”

DOJ WANTS APPLE TO CRACK MORE PHONES — NYT’s Eric Lichtblau and Joseph Goldstein: “The Justice Department is demanding Apple’s help in unlocking at least nine iPhones nationwide in addition to the phone used by one of the San Bernardino, Calif., attackers. The disclosure appears to buttress the company’s concerns that the dispute could pose a threat to encryption safeguards that goes well beyond the single California case.

“Apple is fighting the government’s demands in at least seven of the other nine cases, Marc J. Zwillinger, a lawyer for the company, said in a letter unsealed in federal court on Tuesday. Apple said it had received nearly 11,000 requests from government agencies worldwide for information on roughly 60,000 devices, and it provided some data in roughly 7,100 instances.” http://nyti.ms/1Qb2OBQ

JPM PAINTS HAPPY PICTURE — NYT’s Nathaniel Popper: “JPMorgan Chase executives painted a positive picture of the American economy and the bank’s business at their annual investor day, but they failed to beat back the pessimism that has battered bank shares and the broader stock market in recent months. The bank … saw its share price fall throughout its investor day on Tuesday after disclosing during the morning that it is putting aside an additional $500 million to cover potential losses from falling oil prices.

“The stock ended the session down 4.2 percent, falling more than the broad indexes. On Tuesday, the bank’s executives were fighting against new economic data from the Conference Board showing that consumer confidence fell in February to a seven-month low.” http://nyti.ms/20Ua768

SAUDI RULES OUT OIL CUT — FT’s Gregory Meyer in Houston and Anjli Raval in London: “Saudi Arabia has ruled out a deal by major producers to cut oil output and warned high-cost operators such as US shale drillers to trim costs or go bust in a stark message that triggered fresh pressure on crude prices. Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi said a lack of trust between the world’s biggest producers meant a cut in production ‘is not going to happen’. He said the kingdom would instead push for a co-ordinated production freeze to help balance a market swamped with an excess of crude which has taken oil prices to their lowest level in more than a decade.” http://on.ft.com/1PY1uo6

FIRST LOOK: SENATE GOP CONFERENCE RIPS OBAMA ECONOMY — In a video going out this morning, Senate Republican Conference Chair John Thune (R-S.D.) “explains how the sluggish Obama economy is harming middle-class Americans in very real ways” http://bit.ly/1OtP8zM

DISTRESSED DEBT INVESTORS HEART DEMS — Per Debtwire’s annual North American Distressed Debt Market Outlook: “Contrary to popular belief that the finance industry favors the Republican Party, 46 percent of respondents will be voting for a Democrat in the upcoming election. 64 percent say having a Democratic president is more beneficial to capital markets and 67 percent say it’s better for the economy overall”

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