Forecast: Disney+ to reach 126m subs by 2025

Following the results announcement that exceeded even Disney’s expectations, analyst firm Digital TV Research has upgraded its forecasts for Disney+.

Disney+ will be the biggest SVoD winner over the next five years. Disney+ will add 105 million paying subscribers between end-2019 and 2025 to take its total to 126 million.

Disney+ will reach 53 per cent of Netflix’s subscriber total by 2025 – up from only 27 per cent in 2020.

“Much of this initial growth will come from the US, principally due to the attractive bundling of Disney+ with ESPN+ and Hulu,” advises Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research. “ESPN+ and Hulu are not yet available outside the US, but we still expect strong Disney+ take-up globally.”

Five global platforms will have 553 million paying SVoD subscribers by 2025, adding 196 million subscribers between 2020 and 2025.

Netflix will gain 51 million subscribers between 2020 and 2025, revealing that there is still growth left for the most established platform. Netflix will command 44 per cent of the 2025 total for the five platforms; down from 53 per cent in 2020.

HBO Max will have 30 million paying subscribers by 2025 – if non-payers are included, then this figure could be tripled. The same is true for Apple TV+, which Digital TV Research forecasts will have 26 million paying subscribers by 2025.

The SVoD sector received a boost in November 2019 with the roll-outs of Disney+ and Apple TV+. A further lift will come when HBO Max starts in May.