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Photo by Canadian Medical Association Journal / PNG

Lindsay Hedden, lead author and UBC researcher, said governments rely on College of Physicians and Surgeons licensing “head counts” but that may not be the most accurate method of counting doctors because many keep their licences active even when they wind down their practices. “Our findings (based on billing data) indicate that current forecasts likely overestimate the supply of physicians that will be practising in the future and the amount of service they will provide.”

Photo by Jason Payne / PNG

The federally funded research shows that since many doctors reduce clinical workloads leading up to retirement and many retire slightly earlier, “it could make it more difficult for people to access care in the future, particularly in rural areas where the physician shortage already poses a significant challenge,” said Hedden.

Dr. Trina Larsen Soles, president of Doctors of B.C., said that while it’s helpful to have fact-based data for workforce planning, she has reservations about the “implication” that female doctors aren’t “working our butts off.” And she said rural doctors in under-serviced areas become exhausted because they frequently have to work nights and weekends on call.

“As well, while retiring doctors may curtail seeing patients, many still teach, take administrative jobs in health authorities, and work for the College of Physicians and Surgeons. They reinvent themselves in roles that still help the health system.

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“Having said that, we do have a shortage of physicians and it’s going to get worse because of population demographics and that means that we need to find ways of working differently so that doctors are freed up from clerical work so they can spend more time with patients,” said Larsen Soles. She added that she believes the government is “sincere” about establishing team-based practices utilizing allied health professionals like nurse practitioners and social workers.