May 30, 2018

The Syrian regime’s position on southern Syria, in particular the rebel-held Daraa province that is part of a de-escalation zone, remains vague following reports last week that Damascus was preparing to launch a major military operation there. Jordan, one of three signatories — in addition to the United States and Russia — to an agreement adopted in November that imposed a cease-fire in southern Syria, is closely following up on developments.

“Jordan wants the de-escalation zone created in [the] south of Syria to remain intact, and we believe that these zones have led to positive results and helped reach a cease-fire in Syria,” an unnamed government source told the Jordan Times on May 27.

On May 28, Reuters quoted an unnamed Jordanian official saying that Jordan is confident that Russia will not allow President Bashar al-Assad’s government to wreck a cease-fire in southern Syria. He said that Russia, the United States and Jordan still see “eye to eye” on the need to preserve the cease-fire.

The Jordanian position followed a strong warning May 25 by the US State Department that the United States was ready to take “firm and appropriate measures” in response to cease-fire violations. The statement was made following news reports that the Syrian army was preparing to move south after a series of victories that ended rebel presence in areas surrounding the capital, Damascus. On May 25, Agence France-Presse reported that the Syrian air force had dropped leaflets over Daraa province warning of an imminent military operation and calling on fighters to drop their weapons. The leaflets also gave fighters a choice between dying and surrendering, and called on rebels to embrace reconciliation while offering to protect civilians.

Jordan and Israel, which share borders with southern Syria, have repeatedly warned that they will not allow the deployment of Iranian militias and Hezbollah fighters close to their borders. Israel wants all pro-Iran militias to leave Syria. On May 28, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was quoted by Haaretz as saying that only Syrian government troops should be deployed on Syria’s southern border. His statement came a day after the same paper reported that Israel believes Russia is ready to talk about a significant distancing of Iranian forces and allied Shiite militias from the Israeli-Syrian border.