Wings must slow Lightning's potent offense to win series

Speaking after the Red Wings won their season finale, coach Mike Babcock observed that it looks like his team is going in the right direction.

The Wings start the playoffs Thursday in Tampa Bay, against the team that led the NHL in offense, against the team that led the NHL in home victories. The Wings tumbled in the standings during March and April, but managed to do enough to reach 100 points after three victories in their last five games, good for third place in the Atlantic Division.

"It's nice to see that we're consistent, that we're winning games," captain Henrik Zetterberg said. "Last month hasn't gone the way we wanted to, but we stuck with it and found a way to get into the playoffs. When we do things right, we're dangerous."

Gallery: Meet the Tampa Bay Lightning

Now it's about staying in the playoffs. The Wings were ousted in the first round last year, lost in a second-round Game 7 in overtime in 2013 to eventual champion Chicago and lost in the first round in 2012.

Getting in shouldn't be overlooked — Los Angeles didn't, Boston didn't, San Jose didn't, Pittsburgh barely did — but for that "right direction" thing to hold up, the Wings need to upset the Lightning, never mind that the club is run by Wings great Steve Yzerman, who took over as general manager five years ago.

That means the Wings must solve a team that averaged 3.16 goals per game and won 32 games at Amalie Arena; no other NHL team reached 30 home victories.

"They're a real good team, play a fast game," Babcock said.

Zetterberg said the Lightning "play solid defense, they play good in front of their goalie, their goalie is good, and when they get their chances, they're really effective."

About that goalie, Ben Bishop: He's 6-feet-7 without skates. He has let in seven goals in four starts in April, good for a .946 save percentage for the month, topping his season save percentage of .916. What he doesn't have is NHL playoff experience — but in that regard he might be on even footing with the Wings.

Babcock said after Saturday's 2-0 victory at Carolina that he had decided on his starting goaltender for the playoffs even before seeing Petr Mrazek make 35 saves.

Babcock won't reveal his decision until today, but it sounds like he has settled on Mrazek.

Babcock opted to go with Mrazek in the finale rather than give Jimmy Howard another chance after blaming him for three goals Montreal scored Thursday. Mrazek then backed up that decision with a shutout (he had one March 28 vs. Tampa Bay, too). Afterward, Babcock said: "Every day in our business confirms something or gets you to change your mind."

If he'd decided on Mrazek, he confirmed that decision. If Babcock had Howard in mind (he was an All-Star through the first half and has 45 games of NHL playoff experience), Mrazek might have swayed that decision.

If the goaltending holds up, the Wings could advance. They demonstrated how to counter the Lightning in their previous meeting, holding the team to 24 shots.

"Playoffs," Zetterberg said, "is a new season, everyone just restarts, but we know if we play the way we should, we have a good chance."

That means limiting the damage inflicted by 43-goal scorer Steven Stamkos, whose 72 points tied for the team scoring lead with Tyler Johnson. Former Wing Valtteri Filppula had half the goals this season (12) than in his first year with Tampa Bay (25 goals in 2013-14), but he is an excellent two-way player and passer. Jonathan Drouin headlines the young talent. Anton Stralman (39 points) and Victor Hedman (38 points) highlight a skilled back end.

The Wings will bank on their skilled players, led by Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk, each of whom produced four points in his past two games.

Health always is key in the playoffs, and Babcock has lamented the season-ending injuries of Johan Franzen (suffered concussion in January, hasn't yet been able even to practice) and Erik Cole (spinal contusion), two big forwards. So it is all the more vital to get Justin Abdelkader back because he plays a heavy game and just came through with a career-high 23 goals. He suffered an inflamed right hand April 4, but he has been skating since last week.

"We need Abby back," said Babcock, adding how good it was to see Tomas Jurco return Saturday after an upper-body injury. Jurco hasn't been productive (18 points in 63 games), but Babcock likes what he brings.

The playoffs are about adjustments, and getting Jurco back and maybe Abdelkader, adding prospects Landon Ferraro and Alexey Marchenko, give the Wings flexibility.

If the NHL playoffs prove one thing, it's that anything can happen. The Rangers weren't on many short lists to make the 2014 Stanley Cup final, but they did. The Ottawa Senators are a sleeper darling. The Wings made it hard on themselves the past six weeks, but they won when they needed to, and that's the direction Babcock likes.

Contact Helene St. James: hstjames@freepress.com. Follow her on Twitter @helenestjames.