Expected Goals Model

Much of my modelling surrounds the topic of ‘expected goals’ and ‘expected assists’. Essentially, the models use historic data to go beyond basic goals and assists to find the true, long-term value of player actions.

Expected Goal Model explanation

I use Tableau Public software in order to visualise multiple-game shot and passing data. Check out the interactive dashboards in the links below. Some of the dashboards include downloadable team and player xG and xA data:

2019/20 xG Dashboard

2018/19 xG Dashboard

World Cup 2018 xG Dashboard (primed for iPhone 6 upwards)

2017/18 xG Dashboard

2016/17 xG Dashboard

2016/17 xA Dashboard

2015/16 xG Dashboard

Euro 2016 xG Dashboard

2014/15 xG Dashboard

These can be made for all the top leagues in Europe and are an excellent scouting tool. They can be tailored to goalkeepers and managers too.