comments by Vincent Verhei

Welcome to the results of the 12th annual Football Outsiders Awards -- the best and worst players of the year, as voted on by you, our readers. For those curious about the FO Award winners in past years, you will find links to each of the previous FO Awards articles on this page.

Who is your choice as Offensive MVP for 2014? (Last year's winner: Peyton Manning)

Not a lot of controversy here. Rodgers was in the league's top three in touchdowns, passer rating, yards per attempt, yards per completion, and touchdown rate, and he had the lowest interception rate in the NFL. In Football Outsiders' numbers, he was a few ticks behind Ben Roethlisberger for the DYAR crown, and way ahead of everyone else in DVOA. Oh, and the Packers won 12 games in the regular season, one more in the playoffs, and took the Seahawks to overtime in the NFC Championship Game. That all helps. The voting wasn't close, but most of the other candidates have obvious credentials as well. You've got the rushing DYAR leader, the rushing DVOA leader, the receiving DYAR leader among running backs, the rushing DYAR record-holder for quarterbacks, the passing DYAR leader, and four other playoff quarterbacks. Andrew Luck finished higher than his numbers (10th in DYAR, 12th in DVOA) would suggest, but he presumably got a "this guy's teammates suck" boost from voters. (After all, that's why we listed him as a nominee in the first place.)

Who is your choice as Defensive MVP for 2014? (Last year's winner: Luke Kuechly)

It can be hard at times to express the statistical dominance of J.J. Watt. He led the league with 43 Defeats, of course. (A defeat is any play -- tackles, passes defensed, fumbles forced, or interceptions -- that prevents the offense from gaining first-down yardage on third or fourth down; stops the offense behind the line of scrimmage; or results in a turnover.) But he did that as a defensive lineman; the next seven players in Defeats are all linebackers. (To be fair, that includes Kansas City's Justin Houston, a 3-4 outside linebacker who often plays with the responsibilities of a lineman.) After Watt, the top pure lineman in Defeats was Jason Pierre-Paul of the New York Giants, with 27. Only 13 linemen in the league reached even half of Watt's total. And Watt was versatile, too. He led the league with 26 Pass Defeats, and was tied for second with 17 Run Defeats. (Tampa Bay's Lavonte David was first with 26.) Further, Watt wasn't just a highlight machine. He made small plays too, leading all linemen in successful plays and total plays. When you compare Watt's Defeat numbers (to recap, 26 pass, 17 run, 43 total) to the average of the next ten linemen (14.0 pass, 10.1 run, 24.1 total), you start to understand the monstrous gap between Watt and his peers. (Also, while we're here, we should point out that Bobby Wagner was 32nd in total plays, 15th in successes, and tied for 39th in Defeats ... and Tony Dungy voted for him for MVP of the entire league.)

Who should be the NFL MVP, your choice for Offensive MVP or your choice for Defensive MVP?



54.9% Defensive MVP 45.1% Offensive MVP

Basically, this was our way of naming an Offensive MVP, while simultaneously asking whether Watt should win the MVP award. And the answer was a resounding "yes." By filtering the results of the last three questions, we find that 52.5 percent of you effectively voted for Watt for NFL MVP, followed by Rodgers (28.2 percent) and Brady a distant third (3.7 percent). The bottom of the table is just as fascinating as the top. Seventeen total players got at least one "vote," including Luke Kuechly (3), Justin Houston (2), and DeAndre Levy (1).

Who is your choice as NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year for 2014? (Last year's winner: Keenan Allen)

We ran this last year for Keenan Allen, so we can just update it for Beckham. Highest receiving DYAR by a rookie wide receiver, 1989-2013:

Randy Moss, 1998 MIN: 428 DYAR

Odell Beckham, Jr., 2014 NYG: 394 DYAR

Michael Clayton, 2004 TB: 389 DYAR

Keenan Allen, 2013 SD: 342 DYAR

A.J. Green, 2011 CIN: 288 DYAR

Lee Evans, 2004 BUF: 284 DYAR

Marques Colston, 2006 NO: 258 DYAR

Remember, Beckham missed the first quarter of the season. In fact, no receiver last year had more DYAR than Beckham after he hit the field in Week 5. He also led the league with 108.8 receiving yards per game, an all-time rookie record, becoming the first freshman to hit triple digits in more than half a century. A case can be made that in his first season, Beckham was already the best receiver in the league.

Who is your choice as NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year for 2014? (Last year's winner: Sheldon Richardson)

With three strong candidates, the voters went with talent and ability over on-field production. Aaron Donald had nine sacks in his debut season, first among all rookies and second among defensive tackles. He added a dozen run Defeats, and his 24 total Defeats were second among defensive tackles behind Detroit's Ndamukong Suh (26). C.J. Mosley led all rookies and was fifth in the NFL with 30 Defeats, showing up strong against the run and in pass coverage. Khalil Mack, meanwhile, had "only" 25 Defeats, and most notably, just 4.0 sacks. Our charting data, though still not totally complete and cleaned up, paints a rosier picture, crediting Mack with 28 pressures. Which leads me to a funny story. A few weeks ago, while charting the Raiders-49ers game in Week 14, I tweeted out a GIF of Mack beating Joe Staley for a pressure. Staley himself, apparently doing a vanity search, saw the tweet and replied simply: "dudes a beast." Indeed he is, sir, and our voters have confirmed it. Khalil Mack: dudes a beast.

Who was the best offensive lineman of 2014? (open question, two votes per ballot, top 14 listed) (Last year's winner: Joe Thomas)

Perhaps it's because Ben Muth was singing his praises all year long, or perhaps he's just that much better than everyone else, but Marhal Yanda wins the award, with Tyron Smith his only close competition. Most observers would tell you that Dallas had the league's best offensive line (foreshadowing!), and it shows here, with Smith, Zack Martin, and Travis Frederick all making the top eight. Baltimore and New England were the only other teams with multiple linemen in the top 14. Meanwhile, it says a lot about the talents of Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson that Seattle had a historically great rush offense this season, even though only one lineman finished in the top vote-getters -- and that lineman (Max Unger) missed ten games.

Who is your choice for Unit of the Year in 2014? (New Award)



39.4% Dallas offensive line

26.6% Seattle secondary

11.3% Detroit defensive line

9.9% Buffalo defensive line 4.1% Baltimore offensive line

3.3% Pittsburgh receivers (WR/TE)

3.0% Carolina linebackers

2.2% Denver receivers (WR/TE)

The Cowboys offense had its best DVOA since 2009. In his 11th season, Tony Romo led the league in completion percentage, yards per pass, touchdown rate, passer rating, and Total QBR, and finished second in DVOA. DeMarco Murray led the league in rushing yards, touchdowns, yards from scrimmage, and rushing DYAR. Both owe a significant portion of credit to the big uglies up front. Yes, this was the best offensive line we have seen in some time. Your quarterback needs an excellent day to beat the Seahawks; unfortunately for them, Tom Brady was excellent in the Super Bowl. The Bills led the league in Adjusted Sack Rate, while the Lions led in Adjusted Line Yards, so you can pick your poison there.

Who is your choice for NFL Coach of the Year in 2014? (Last year's winner: Bill Belichick)



46.3% Bruce Arians, ARI

20.5% Bill Belichick, NE

17.3% Pete Carroll, SEA

7.0% Jason Garrett, DAL 5.5% John Harbaugh, BAL

1.4% Jim Caldwell, DET

1.2% Doug Marrone, BUF

0.8% Mike Pettine, CLE

Pete Carroll had to navigate his team through the Percy Harvin disaster, Bill Belichick had to rebuild his offensive line on the fly, but no coach did more with less this year than Bruce Arians. The Cardinals finished the year with their top quarterback, top pass rusher, and top interior lineman on injured reserve (along with five other players), and their top linebacker suspended for the season. However, I am surprised Mike Pettine finished so low. With an offense led by Brian Hoyer, Terrance West, and Andrew Hawkins; with questions about Johnny Manziel looming every week; with Josh Gordon suspended, then ineffective, then suspended again; with a front office relationship so toxic his offensive coordinator ran like hell after the season; with division rivals as good as Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh; with all that going against him, Pettine found a way to win seven games. I voted for Pettine, but then I very nearly picked Cleveland to win the first draft choice before the season started (I eventually chose Oakland), so maybe my perspective is skewed.

(Ed. Note: One other note about Arians. The difference between a team's win-loss record and DVOA involves a lot of intangibles. A lot of that gap is just luck and timing. But some of it has to do with coaching, and the ability of a head coach to navigate his way through more close wins than losses. I feel fairly confident saying that Bruce Arians deserves some of the credit for guiding the No. 22 team in DVOA to an 11-5 record. And that's before you even consider the injuries. And remember, two years ago Arians was head coach, at least for most of the year, of an Indianapolis team that also went 11-5 despite finishing No. 25 in DVOA. -- Aaron Schatz)

Who is your choice for the Bill Arnsparger Award for Coordinator of the Year in 2014? (Last year's winner: Ken Whisenhunt)



27.9% Todd Bowles, ARI defense

14.5% Dan Quinn, SEA defense

14.1% Rod Marinelli, DAL defense

11.6% Teryl Austin, DET defense

11.0% Jim Schwartz, BUF defense 9.1% Gary Kubiak, BAL offense

4.9% Dave Fipp, PHI special teams

3.8% Vic Fangio, SF defense

2.0% Darrell Bevell, SEA offense

1.1% Bill Lazor, MIA offense

Coaches who finish high in this category often win head coaching jobs as a result, and this year was no different. The Jets hired Todd Bowles after the season, while the Falcons hired Dan Quinn, and some reports said that Teryl Austin was their second choice. Bowles, like Arians, wins for overcoming so many injuries on his team, with an aggressive dime scheme. According to ESPN Stats & Information data, the Cardinals were the only team this season to blitz a defensive back on more than 20 percent of opposing pass plays, and they nearly doubled the league average rate.

Who is your choice for the Art Rooney Jr. Award for Executive(s) of the Year? (Last year's winner: John Schneider)



24.6% Bill Belichick, NE

23.8% John Schneider, SEA

14.0% Ozzie Newsome, BAL

8.5% Steve Keim, ARI 8.4% John Elway, DEN

8.2% Ted Thompson, GB

8.0% Jerry Jones, DAL

4.6% Rick Spielman, MIN

The Patriots just barely stopped Seattle from winning back-to-back Super Bowls, and Bill Belichick just barely stopped John Schneider from winning this award for the third year in a row. Belichick gets credit for trading Logan Mankins, signing Darrelle Revis, and finding Bryan Stork in the draft. Schneider's biggest accomplishment was having the courage to admit that the Percy Harvin acquisition was a mistake and moving on, though he also drafted a starting tackle in Justin Britt and signed Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, K.J. Wright, Cliff Avril, and Pete Carroll to contract extensions.

Who is your choice for the John Elway Award for disappointing highly-drafted rookie who turns things around with an impressive sophomore season? (Last year's winner: Alshon Jeffery)

The 52nd pick in the 2013 draft, Jamie Collins had only seven Defeats in his rookie season, but he had 22 in 2014. Travis Kelce missed all of 2013 after microfracture surgery. We wrote in FOA 2014 that it was "possible" he would see the field this year. He ended up leading the Chiefs in catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns, and finished fourth among tight ends in DYAR. Darius Slay had four starts in 13 games as a rookie, but the former second-round pick started every game this year, and helped Detroit finish with the best pass defense by DVOA.

A couple readers asked why we didn't list Le'veon Bell as a nominee here; we felt he didn't qualify because an average DVOA behind a struggling offensive line in 2013 translated to a pretty good rookie year for Bell, not a disappointment.

Who is your pick for the Kurt Warner Award, for a low-drafted (or undrafted) backup who finally has a breakout year as a starter? (Last year's winner: Julian Edelman)

Justin Forsett ran for 1,692 yards and eight touchdowns in the first six seasons of his career, spending time with four teams. In his seventh season, with his fifth team, he nearly matched those numbers, gaining 1,287 yards and eight scores on the ground. He had shown flashes of talent before -- he had games of 123 and 130 yards in November of 2009 with the Seahawks, but the next year Seattle traded for Marshawn Lynch, and Forsett spent four more seasons waiting for another opportunity. When he got it, he made the most of it. Speaking of opportunity, C.J. Anderson might have won this award if Denver had given him more chances early in the year. He had just 172 yards in the first half of the year, but 677 in the second half.

Who is your choice for the Keep Choppin' Wood Award for 2014 (player who most hurt his team, on or off the field)? (Last year's winner: Richie Incognito)

A depressing number of strong candidates here. Adrian Peterson -- who, we remind you, looks like this -- stuffed leaves into his 4-year-old son's mouth and whipped him bloody with a switch. Then, while out on bond for that crime, he told a court official during a drug test that he had smoked "a little weed." If he's reinstated for 2015 -- and that is an "if" -- he would count for $15.4 million against the salary cap, and he told ESPN in December that he saw no reason he should take a pay cut. Trent Richardson finishes second for this award for the second year in a row, so... yay? The former third overall pick had played one snap in the wild card game and then was a healthy inactive the rest of the playoffs. The Colts announced after they had been eliminated that they had suspended Richardson for two games -- which means, if he somehow returns to Indianapolis next year, he'll be suspended for the opener. The Colts were reportedly upset with Richardson for gaining 15 pounds during the season, which doesn't even seem possible, and then no-showing the walkthrough the day before the AFC Championship Game. Richardson claimed a family emergency, but the Colts say they had no idea where he was. Josh Gordon started the year on suspension, had his suspension cut, showed up out of shape, got suspended by the Browns for violation of team rules after skipping a walkthrough, and then got suspended by the NFL for drinking alcohol, from which he was banned under the terms of one of his many earlier suspensions. Ugh.

Who is your choice for the Keep Choppin' Game Film Award for the worst coach of 2014? (Last year's winner: Greg Schiano)



25.8% Marc Trestman, CHI head coach

19.3% Jay Gruden, WAS head coach

17.8% Mike Smith, ATL head coach

11.2% Ken Whisenhunt, TEN head coach 10.8% Lovie Smith, TB head coach

9.8% Rob Ryan, NO defense

2.9% Jedd Fisch, JAC offense

2.5% Dick LeBeau, PIT defense

Marc Trestman completely lost the Chicago locker room. His own assistants were ripping quarterback Jay Cutler in the media, then making tearful apologies to the team. The Bears ended the year on a five-game losing skid, and at one point Trestman, in 2014, decided that starting Jimmy Clausen ahead of Jay Cutler was a good idea. Jay Gruden, like Trestman, seemed at times to be deliberately sabotaging his own quarterback, knocking Robert Griffin in the media and benching him at one point for Colt McCoy. Mike Smith has a defensive background, but under his watch the Falcons defense declined in each of the past three seasons, and they were last in defensive DVOA in 2014.

Who was the least deserving pick for the Pro Bowl? (Last year's winner: Frank Gore)

Presumably, the selection of John Kuhn here is a protest against the antiquated Pro Bowl voting format that insists teams carry a fullback, which is quickly becoming an obsolete position. It's hard to figure out who is the other fullback who maybe should have been named to the team instead of Kuhn and Marcel Reece. LeSean McCoy's name is more easily explained, as the Eagles runner finished 45th in rushing DVOA and 24th in receiving DVOA. A.J. Green also had an off year by his standards, finishing 29th in DYAR and 38th in DVOA. It's not just advanced stats; Green was just 20th in the NFL in receiving yards.

The most deserving offensive player left off the original Pro Bowl roster is: (open question, top 10 listed) (Last year's winner: Alshon Jeffery)

As we noted earlier, you could argue that Odell Beckham was the best wide receiver in the NFL in 2014. The notion that there were eight better players at the position is pretty silly. Though, as it turns out, our voters found a lot of receivers who should have made the Pro Bowl were left out.

A quick note: this year for the first time, we listed specific suggested nominees for this open category (and the next two). The players we suggested, of course, generally received the most mentions. However, we wanted to provide guidance because it can be hard to vote in this category and not know who is in the Pro Bowl as an original selection and who is there as an injury/Super Bowl replacement.

The most deserving defensive player left off the original Pro Bowl roster is: (open question, top 10 listed) (Last year's winner: Lavonte David)

Hey! Pro Bowl voters! The Bucs stink, but Lavonte David is awesome! Similarly, Khalil Mack and Sheldon Richardson were great defensive players who went overlooked because they were on lousy teams. David and Mack (and DeAndre Levy) are also casualties of the way Pro Bowl voters tend to favor specific stats like sacks and thus only 3-4 outside linebackers get voted into the game. (Then, by Pro Bowl rules, defenses have to play a 4-3 scheme, so you get to watch Tamba Hali and Justin Houston try to cover the league's best tight ends. Fun!) Lions GM Martin Mayhew offered up an interesting idea to counter this problem, suggesting that the Pro Bowl specifically designate one team each year as a 3-4 defense and the other team as a 4-3. This takes the front seven players out of their fancy "fantasy Pro Bowl draft," but it would do a better job of properly honoring the year's best players.

The most underrated special teams player in the NFL is: (open question, top 10 listed) (Last year's winner: Cordarrelle Patterson)

Justin Tucker wins this award for the second time in three years, because apparently nobody pays attention to kickoff stats. Adam Jones led the league in kickoff return average and was fourth in punt returns; for a while there, he was actually first in both categories. Thomas was third in punt returns and would have been third in kickoff returns as well, but he didn't get enough returns there to qualify.

Which is your choice for Game of the Year in 2014? (Last year's choice: AFC Wild Card: Kansas City 44 at Indianapolis 45)



46.0% NFC Championship: Green Bay 22 at Seattle 28 (OT)

30.3% AFC Divisional: Baltimore 31 at New England 35

5.5% Week 6: Dallas 30 at Seattle 23

4.6% Week 16: San Diego 38 at San Francisco 35 (OT)

4.2% Week 3: Denver 20 at Seattle 26 (OT)

1.9% Week 13: San Diego 34 at Baltimore 33

1.8% Week 12: Miami 36 at Denver 39 1.8% Week 12: Dallas 31 at New York Giants 28

1.2% Week 1: New Orleans 34 at Atlanta 37 (OT)

1.1% Week 8: Detroit 22 at Atlanta 21

0.8% Week 2: Philadelphia 30 at Indianapolis 27 (OT)

0.5% Week 7: New Orleans 23 at Detroit 24

0.3% Week 8: Baltimore 24 at Cincinnati 27

I'm pretty sure if we did the voting at the end of the playoffs instead of just after the conference championship games, Super Bowl XLIX would win with 100 percent of the vote. The Seahawks sure played some exciting games this year, didn't they?

Player most likely to breakout in 2014 (open question, top 12 listed): (Last year's winner: Cordarrelle Patterson)

Don't get too excited, Vikings fans. Our readers are not very good at picking breakout players. The last three winners were Matt Flynn, LaMichael James, and Cordarrelle Patterson. Also, the nine of you who voted for Odell Beckham: what the hell? How is he going to break out in 2015? Is that even possible? Is he going to average 200 yards a game?

Player most likely to significantly decline in 2014 (open question, top 13 listed): (Last year's winner: Peyton Manning)

Peyton Manning wins for the second year in a row, though he only picked up 17.9 percent of the vote last year. And hey, he did decline. DeMarco Murray also seems a safe choice, if only because he'll never get 392 carries again. I assume those who voted for Adrian Peterson just never expect him to play again. Because if he comes back, I bet he tops the 75 yards he had last year.

Which of the following teams is most likely next year's surprise Super Bowl contender? (Last year's choice: Tampa Bay)



32.0% Atlanta

26.5% New York Giants

20.9% St. Louis

8.0% Chicago

4.5% Oakland 3.1% Tampa Bay

2.3% New York Jets

1.2% Washington

1.1% Jacksonville

0.4% Tennessee



You guys were really, really wrong about Tampa Bay last year. The funny thing is, we didn't list Atlanta as an option because they seemed like an obvious choice to get back in the playoffs (remember, they went 13-3 in 2012, then 4-12 the next year), and instead they won just six games. So now? Of course, Atlanta seems like a pretty obvious choice to get back to the playoffs.

Which playoff team is most likely to miss the playoffs in 2014? (Last year's choice: San Diego)



23.8% Arizona

16.6% Carolina

15.8% Cincinnati

12.6% Denver

12.2% Detroit

8.2% Dallas 6.6% Pittsburgh

2.1% Baltimore

1.1% Indianapolis

0.5% Seattle

0.3% Green Bay

0.3% New England

The "We don't think Bruce Arians can do it twice in a row" award. Denver's ranking, I think, shows that a lot of voters are expecting Peyton Manning to retire.

The "Get Your Story Straight" Award for best commercial during NFL games this year goes to:

(Last year's choice: Sprint James Earl Jones/Malcolm McDowell )



28.2% Geico "Ickey Woods cold cuts"

26.6% Direct TV Rob Lowe ads

15.5% Southwest Airlines "wedding dancing girl" 14.6% State Farm "Aaron Rodgers/Hans and Franz"

8.2% Honda classic toys ads

6.9% McDonald's "arch enemies"

This is a travesty. Did you people even watch the Skeletor ad? 8.2 percent? Bah. Also, we got a lot of notes from readers who wanted to vote for Kate Upton's Game of War ads for best commercial. So yes, breasts remain popular.





The "John Mellencamp Must Die" Award for most annoying commercial during NFL games this year goes to:

(Last year's choice: State Farm Discount Double Check)



22.8% NFL Shop "Vikings/Bengals/Eagles/Cowboys/Steelers family"

12.6% Papa John's Peyton Manning ads

12.3% Game of War with Kate Upton

11.9% Direct TV Rob Lowe ads

10.7% State Farm "Aaron Rodgers/Hans and Franz" 8.8% Nationwide with Peyton Manning

7.6% Microsoft Surface Pro 3 "Winder Wonderland"

7.4% McDonald's "disaster signs"

5.9% Pizza Hut Blake Shelton "Cheese and bacon in the crust"

Because if there's one thing devoted football maniacs love, it's disloyal bandwagon fans.

That does it for the 2014 Football Outsiders Awards. Once again, thanks to all the readers for voting. Next stop: The offseason!