The Italian federation of doctors has a message for those who build castles in the air based on theoretical modelling of Covid-19, and for those credulous enough to base policy on such models.

“Whoever is handling the numbers is either incompetent or living in a parallel universe,” said Dr Paola Pedrini, head of the federation’s Lombardy chapter, currently facing the pandemic onslaught.

Those dying at home or in care homes are not being recorded as coronavirus deaths. The true death toll is multiples higher. “We don’t want data confusion to hide the general responsibility for the ‘Caporetto’ of the Italian health system.”

The Battle of Caporetto was where the Italian front across the Isondo collapsed in late 1917 under a combined Austro-Hungarian and German attack, despite General Cadorno’s policy of "decimation" for underperforming regiments.

By all means let us have a lively national debate over the rights and wrongs of shutting down normal economic and social existence for three to six months in order to save lives, but let it be based on reality. Only then can we make an informed moral decision.

We have a "real time" laboratory before our eyes. What is happening at the Italian coal face is not remotely consistent with claims being made by some that the death rate from Covid-19 is akin to seasonal winter flu at about 0.1pc.