It’s Golden State Warriors v Cleveland Cavaliers Part III. Guardian writers look at what each team must do to win. And whether Draymond Green will explode

This year’s winner will be ...

Golden State Warriors, 4-2. LC

Golden State, 4-2. DG

Golden State, 4-3. (Note: this prediction is partly based on the fact that we need a dramatic seven-game finals just to salvage this utterly forgettable postseason) HF

Golden State, 4-2. BAG

Golden State, 4-2 AR

What the Warriors need to do to win ...

Not let the moment get to them. Last year, the Warriors were on the brink of a second straight title but let external distractions get to them. Steph Curry, in particular, seemed influenced by family and friends who attached themselves to him through the playoffs. As long as he and the rest of Golden State’s players are focused they will win easily. LC

Make shots. The story of the Warriors losing their 3-1 lead in the finals last year was that their field goal percentage dropped from 46.7% in the first four games of the series to 38.7% in the final three games. Undoubtedly that had a lot to do with Cleveland’s defense and LeBron James using his lightning-speed superpower to execute chase-down blocks. But the Warriors also missed open looks. If that changes, so will the outcome of the series. DG

They need to approach this series as if they’re the prohibitive underdogs rather than the favorites. Also, obviously, they have to stay healthy and avoid any suspensions. If Curry was at 100% last postseason and Draymond Green managed to reign in his crotch-kicking exploits, they would almost certainly be aiming for their third consecutive championship right now. HF

Keep on keeping on. Golden State’s regular season might have the appearance of a letdown after last year’s record-breaking 73-win campaign, but only six teams in NBA history finished with better than the Warriors’ 67 victories. They enter their summit meeting with the Cavaliers on a head of steam: a perfect 12-0 in the playoffs and winners of 27 in a row with Klay Thompson in uniform. Their conventional lineups are difficult to defend; when they deploy small-ball, five-out lineups that sacrifice a full-time rim protector in favor of five players who can bury three-pointers, the task becomes nearly impossible. BAG

Keep working as a team and don’t let the pressure of the finals tear them apart. The Warriors are a well-oiled machine, and as long as a key player doesn’t try to outshine the others or a bench player doesn’t try to overtake the game, the championship is theirs for the taking. AR

Kevin Durant and the making of an unlikely NBA finals villain Read more

What the Cavaliers need to do to win ...

Play much better defense than they have this season. Cleveland can’t rely on James to carry them defensively, especially with a team that has as many weapons as Golden State does. Cleveland can score as well as anyone but getting into a shooting battle with the Warriors is not a formula for a second straight title. LC

Have LeBron and Kyrie Irving at their best. If the pair have their A-game for most of the series, and if they can expose Curry’s defense again this year and run the pick-and-roll to perfection, the Warriors may have to spend the offseason courting Chris Paul or Gordon Hayward as the latest missing piece to their superteam. DG

The Cavaliers need to be at their best from the very second Game 1 starts. Because of the whole “playing in the Eastern Conference” thing, the Cavaliers haven’t faced a team that has had a legitimate chance at beating them in a seven-game series (or a five-game series, honestly). The “flip the switch” option won’t be there if they find themselves down early here. HF

As you might have read somewhere, the Warriors blew a 3-1 lead to the Cavaliers in last year’s finals. But not even a Cleveland big three headlined by the greatest player in the history of basketball will be able to repeat if Golden State are allowed to get out on open road. The Cavaliers will need to do what they did last year and wear down Curry with double screens and aggressive drives, make the Warriors waste energy in half-court defense but run selectively to bank enough fast-break points to outscore Golden State. The good news? They’re as healthy and rested as they’ve been for any of their three finals dates with the Warriors, and the in-form Kevin Love – who, fun fact, has never lost a playoff series – has never looked better in a Cleveland uniform. BAG

Play better defense, especially on the three-point line. Kyle Korver is no match for Thompson, and three-pointers will be a deciding factor. They also need to be aggressive, attacking the rim and protecting their own. Even when the Warriors are down, they can cut a 20-point deficit in two minutes if they have their big four on the floor. They can’t let their guards down, even when they’re up – that’s exactly when the Warriors strike. AR

Which team that didn’t make it would you like to see have seen here

San Antonio. Though the Spurs were blown out in the conference finals they had the Warriors rattled in Game 1 before Kawhi Leonard went down with his ankle injury. A healthy San Antonio team would have given Cleveland a run in the finals and sent Manu Ginobli off in style. LC

Teams other than the Cavaliers and Warriors can make the finals? Sounds like fake news to me. But in this fantasy world, my choice is Team Russell Westbrook/the Oklahoma City Thunder. Imagine the intensity in an NBA finals featuring Westbrook and LeBron. In fact, forget all their teammates. Make it LeBron v Westbrook, one-on-one, best-out-of-seven for the whole thing. DG

The Spurs, I guess? Kawhi Leonard v LeBron James would have been an interesting match-up. Honestly, I’m 100% happy with a third straight Cavaliers/Warriors finals, I just wish that the series leading up to it were actually competitive. HF

The NBA’s top-heaviness can be problematic during the marathon regular season, but Cavaliers v Warriors III is a delicious payoff eight months in the making. No one is complaining, present company least of all. But it would have been fun to watch John Wall, for years one of the NBA’s most overlooked and underappreciated stars, get a crack at a career-defining moment on the sport’s biggest stage with the Wizards, who haven’t made the finals since the dying days of disco. BAG

Washington Wizards. Yes, I have a DC sports bias, but don’t forget that the Wizards did beat the Warriors during the regular season, and Scott Brooks knows Durant’s game like the back of his hand. It would have been nice to see some young blood instead of LeBron’s seventh consecutive trip to the finals, and it would have been nice to have an underdog to root for. AR

Draymond Green is ...

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Draymond Green: good for stories, bad for groins. Photograph: Nelson Chenault/USA Today Sports

Golden State’s fire to go with the more passive personalities of Curry, Durant and Thompson. All champions need one relentless, irritating presence. Green plays that villain well. That he’s also one of the 15 best players in the league only makes him essential to the Warriors’ success. LC

Good for the NBA. Is he a cheap-shot artist who is disliked by most everyone outside the Warriors fanbase? Undoubtedly. But guys like that happen to be good for the league, good for creating storylines and good for drawing the interest of casual fans. But, yes, bad for the groins of opponents. That’s true. DG

Going to make up for last year. While his suspension in Game 5 of last year’s finals may not have been the biggest reason that the Warriors ends up blowing that 3-1 lead, there’s no question that it was a turning point. I’m not saying that we’re going to see a kindler, gentler Green – we’ll get at least one vintage postgame rant from him at the very least – but he will at least reign in the slapstick comedy and the amateur martial arts. HF

Still the key for the Warriors. The 6ft 7in power forward is the secret sauce of Golden State’s exotic lineups when he slides to the five, creating matchup nightmares for opposing teams. His self-immolation was the spark for Cleveland’s historic rally last year. If he keeps his head in the game – and 7ft 1in wingspan on the floor – the Warriors will be tough to beat. BAG

A crucial player with a bad temper. His suspension last year is a huge part of why the Warriors lost their momentum and blew a 3-1 lead. His defense and his attitude are essential for the Warriors to win – as long as he doesn’t kick anyone in the kiwis. AR

The series MVP will be ...

Curry. Since Durant has longed to win a title and left the Thunder for a chance at a ring, he is the popular choice for series MVP. But Curry doesn’t seem as affected by distractions the way he was last season. He will shine in these finals. LC

Curry. Last year’s league MVP wasn’t himself coming back from injury in the finals, but he can put all that behind him – including the 3-1 jokes – with a big performance in victory this year. That said, LeBron will likely be the best player by a significant margin again in this year’s finals. But if they didn’t give the MVP to him in 2015 in defeat, they won’t do it this year either. DG

How about Klay Thompson? He’s become something of the forgotten man, which is understandable since he plays with two former MVPs in Curry and Durant and one of the most controversial figures in the league in Green. If the Cavaliers choose not to focus on Thompson, he can make them pay. HF

It’s been 48 years since a player from the losing team won finals MVP, which is chosen by a select panel of about a dozen media members. The winners’ bias was never more evident than when Andre Iguodala semi-controversially tipped LeBron for the trophy in 2015 (despite 150-1 odds on the eve of Game 1). It’s likely King James would have won it even if the Cavaliers had lost Game 7 last year after he became the first player ever to lead both teams in all five major statistical categories – points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocked shots – over the course of an entire playoff series. He’s the best player on the floor and he’ll take MVP, win or lose, if the series goes the distance. Short of that, I’ll take Curry. BAG

Durant. He’s the most well-rounded player on the roster and will be eager to show that he’s earned this trip to the finals, not just because he’s part of a superteam. He’s got a lot to prove, and a vengeful Durant is a dangerous Durant. Plus he’s been hungry for a LeBron rematch ever since they faced off five years ago. AR

Unheralded bench player to watch

Deron Williams. It’s hard to call a former all-star unheralded, but the Cavs’ backup point guard is the biggest name on a bench that hasn’t delivered much for Cleveland in the postseason. To beat Golden State, the Cavs will need more than the big three to carry them. Getting Williams can play like he did in the conference finals clincher against Boston is a big start. LC

Williams. While he’s no longer making any lists of the league’s top point guards, he provides Cleveland with a big improvement over last year’s backup options of Mo Williams and Matthew Dellavedova. Any extra rest Williams can get Irving will make Irving more of a weapon in a long series. DG

Does Korver count as unheralded? If there’s been one constant about James’s teams in the finals, it’s that there’s always, always, always been a veteran guy who can come in off the bench and immediately start draining threes. It’s the role Korver was born to play. HF

JaVale McGee will play a key role for Golden State. The veteran seven-footer has averaged a modest 7.0 points (on 74% shooting), 3.2 rebounds and 1.1 blocked shots in 10.5 minutes during the playoffs, but the Warriors have outscored opponents by 26.3 points per 100 possessions when he’s been on the floor compared to 14.0 points when he’s on the bench. An unnamed Cavaliers player reportedly said McGee is not “smart enough” to handle Cleveland’s perimeter switches and will be exploited if he’s given substantial playing time, but look for him to rise to the challenge and give the Warriors some valuable burn in the paint. BAG

Iguodala is too obvious, so keep an eye out for McGee. The center will have to cover some big guys who are hard to guard (likely LeBron), and the Warriors will rely on him to get to the rim. AR

One bold prediction

Cleveland will win two games in these finals. Though all the evidence points to a Golden State sweep, it’s hard to bet against James. At some point he is going to take over a game or two enough to steal a victory for the Cavs. This will wind up a closer series than most believe. LC

Durant struggles. Durant’s reputation for going missing in big games isn’t entirely a creation of sports pundits whose income is generated by the heat of their takes. He hasn’t always played well under pressure – and every NBA finals game is full of pressure, especially when you’re the ringless new guy on a team expected to win it all. But lucky for Durant, even if he doesn’t shoot the lights out, he’s got a roster full of teammates now who can. DG

After weeks and weeks of blowouts we’re finally due some competitive games. So how about this for bold: there will be no double-digit wins in these finals for either team. HF

If it goes to seven games, Cleveland wins. But it says here Golden State closes the show on the road in Game 6. BAG

For one night only, LeBron goes cold. Once in a while the King cracks under pressure, and one night at Oracle Arena he will get double-teamed and shoot terribly – but then blame it on something like cramps. AR