• An expected strong “yes” vote in the Iraqi Kurds’ referendum on independence is not likely to lead to a separate state anytime soon.

It could provide Kurdish leaders with leverage in talks with the central government in Baghdad, in particular over the contested status of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk.

Meanwhile, in neighboring Syria, even some longtime rebel supporters have grown war-weary and started to embrace the inevitable: President Bashar al-Assad looks as though he is there to stay.