From the minute she announced her campaign for Governor in May 2017, up until the polls closed on August 28th, former Congresswoman Gwen Graham of Tallahassee was seen as the favorite for the Democratic nomination, but as soon as the election day totals started to roll in it all came crumbling down for Graham, in a result reminiscent of what happened to Hillary Clinton on election night in November 2016.

Graham, the daughter of popular former Governor Bob Graham, had carefully cultivated a moderate brand for herself rising from Leon County Schools to become a one-term Congresswoman after winning a narrow upset victory in the 2014 FL-02 house race over Steve Southerland. From the minute she won that House Seat she was seen as rising Democratic star. It was clear she had her sights set on a higher office, and court mandated redistricting helped expedite her exit from the House and move towards the race for Governor.

From the Tampa Bay Times to the FEA, Emily’s List. To Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn, Graham racked up endorsements that ensured she maintained her status as the frontrunner, even while she was outspent by Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine and wealthy businessman Jeff Greene in the final months of the race. Graham also led nearly every poll conducted in the last 40 days of the primary, some by comfortable margins, while other candidates moved up and down the ladder. In the end though, it was an Andrew Gillum surge that resulted in her 31% ceiling not being enough to win.

That ceiling was her ultimate downfall, as despite her efforts she was never able to consolidate more than a third of the state’s Democratic primary electorate behind her, an electorate that is predominantly women and voters over 50 that should have been naturally predisposed to her candidacy. Graham turned out her loyal supporters early and via mail, but late deciders rejected her safe politics for Andrew Gillum’s politics of hope and possibility. As improbable as Gillum’s victory seemed before the primary, after the primary the signs were clear that Graham was a weak front-runner and surge from any of her main challengers would have knocked her off, it’s the same reason Levine stayed competitive in the race throughout, and Greene entered the race in the first place, despite his massive personal liabilities. Graham felt comfortable with the lead she had, and like the rest of her campaign, reacted passively while the candidates around her engaged in aggressive politicking.

What cost Graham was a bland, uninspiring campaign, she lacked energy, and spark, and never proposed anything that made Florida Democrats feel like 2018 would be different after they were demoralized by multiple cycles of statewide defeat at the hands of an increasingly extremist Republican party that has now spawned the right wing Ron DeSantis as its nominee for Governor.

Graham played it safe in a cycle where Dems were seeking bold leadership and inspiration, something that Gillum ended up offering primary voters in spades on healthcare, criminal justice, public education and many other issues. Democrats didn’t hate or disagree with Graham, but her overly consulted campaign resulted in closing argument TV ads insisting she was “bold” without offering anything bold at all and insisting she was the most electable candidate arguments she should have already won.