NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

Hi everyone, today I’ve got a couple of 4-star bets as well as two more 1-star bets. I am not projecting the Jazz-Kings game because the line is off the board and there are too many uncertain factors at this time (including whether Gordon Hayward will play or not). Let’s run the numbers on the remaining 9 games!

MARCH 29, 2017 SPREAD MONEY LINE Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Hawks -1 +0,6 -110 +105 1,91 2,05 -6,9% 76ers +1 -0,6 +100 -105 2,00 1,95 2,4% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Thunder -6 -3,3 -230 -147 1,43 1,68 -24,5% Magic +6 +3,3 +205 +147 3,05 2,47 X 19,8% Tip: Bet the Magic. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Bucks +8 +6,9 +311 +280 4,11 3,80 X 6,6% Celtics -8 -6,9 -357 -280 1,28 1,36 -11,4% Tip: Bet the Bucks. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Hornets +6,5 +6,9 +227 +292 3,27 3,92 -5,7% Raptors -6,5 -6,9 -255 -292 1,39 1,34 0,9% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Heat -3 -2,7 -147 -132 1,68 1,76 -4,8% Knicks +3 +2,7 +133 +132 2,33 2,32 0,1% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Pacers +5 +5,3 +177 +208 2,77 3,08 -4,8% Grizzlies -5 -5,3 -197 -208 1,51 1,48 0,1% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Mavericks +4,5 +2,7 +180 +135 2,80 2,35 X 12,4% Pelicans -4,5 -2,7 -200 -135 1,50 1,74 -17,1% Tip: Bet the Mavericks. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Warriors +4,5 +5,6 +162 +218 2,62 3,18 -11,4% Spurs -4,5 -5,6 -180 -218 1,56 1,46 X 6,6% Tip: Bet the Spurs. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Wizards +5,5 +4,7 +199 +188 2,99 2,88 4,2% Clippers -5,5 -4,7 -223 -188 1,45 1,53 -8,9% Tip: No value bet.

“GREAT” BETS (4 stars / 5):

I’m betting the Mavericks +4.5 in New Orleans . The big question mark is if DeMarcus Cousins will be able to play for the Pelicans tonight or if he’ll miss a third straight game. My projected lines were made assuming he has a 50-50 chance of playing. If he does, my revised lines would be Mavericks +4 versus Pelicans -4, which would make it a no bet unless the line moves to Dallas at least +5.5. Seth Curry is also questionable for the Mavs, but the impact is relatively minor here. The Pelicans have won their last 4 home games against tough opposition overall: Memphis, Minnesota, Houston and Portland. Each by at least a 13-point margin. Ouch. That’s a cause for concern when betting Dallas. The Mavs have won 2 of the 3 meetings this year (each team won on its own court). Tonight’s match will be the Pelicans’ third game in four nights.

My next pick goes to Orlando +6 at home against Oklahoma City . The Magic are 6-9 since the trade deadline, which is a better record than what they had prior to that date. They have won 3 of their last 5 contests overall. They managed to upset the Thunder on the road 119-117 last November. The Magic have beaten the spread in 8 of the last 10 meetings with OKC. The Thunder are coming off an exciting win after scoring the last 14 points of the game to beat Dallas 92-91. Please note that 77% of the bets on the spread have gone on the Thunder.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BETS (1 star / 5):

I like the Bucks +8 in Boston . Both teams are doing very well these days, but the line is inflated because of the fatigue factor which clearly favors the Celtics. They are coming off two days of rest, while Milwaukee is playing the second of back-to-back games (also a third game in 4 days, a fourth game in 6 nights). Based on some studies I read about the topic, I multiplied the Bucks’ estimated win probability by 78% to get my final projection. More specifically, I had Milwaukee’s chances of winning the game at 33.7% but it was lowered to 33.7% * 0.78 = 26.3% to account for tiredness. Still, I believe the Bucks will cover and could even win the game (even though it won’t be an easy task). Boston was finally able to grab the top spot in the Eastern Conference, thanks to a 4-game winning streak combined with a bad stretch for Cleveland. The only previous matchup between these two teams occurred on January 28 and we can only hope for a similar game as Boston won in overtime.

Finally (but not least!), I am recommending to take the Spurs -4.5 against the Warriors . Golden State is in a similar situation to Milwaukee regarding the fatigue factor, the only difference being that their opponent won’t be playing on 2 days’ rest (only 1). And this time I’m betting against the more tired team. Draymond Green is probable to play despite injuring his ankle yesterday. The Warriors are riding an 8-game winning streak, while the Spurs have won 5 straight. San Antonio needs to win this game if they want to have any chance of grabbing the #1 seed in the Western Conference (they are currently 2.5 games back of Golden State). The first two meetings were clearly in favor of Popovich’s squad, as they won 129-100 on the road and 107-85 at home 18 days ago (a game in which both teams were missing several key players). Can you believe that San Antonio has won 34 of the last 35 meetings at home against the Warriors (the only loss happened last season)?

Thanks for reading!

Professor MJ