Prescription drugs. | AP Photo/Matt Rourke Poll: California drug pricing measure in danger after $110 million Pharma push

SAN FRANCISCO — In the wake of a $122 million blitz by major drug companies — the most expensive ballot campaign in state history — voter support appears to have eroded for a landmark ballot measure designed to control skyrocketing drug prices, a new Hoover Golden State poll shows.

The poll shows Proposition 61, the California Drug Price Relief Act, getting just a bare majority of support from state voters, with 51 percent backing the measure, 24 percent opposing, and 25 percent undecided.


Bill Whalen, a Hoover Institution research fellow, says the slim majority in favor strongly suggests Proposition 61 is in danger of defeat because “historically, when people vote late, they vote against.''

But Garry South, senior strategist in charge of the "Yes on 61" campaign, disputed the Hoover analysis, telling POLITICO California that "despite $122 million worth of lies and distortions" by drug firms, proponents are still confident of passage. "We've banked a lot of 'yes' votes with early voting,'' and other major polls, including a September Field Poll, showed 3-1 support for the measure, South said.

The Hoover Golden State poll was released Tuesday as Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders prepared to return to the Bay Area to campaign in support of the measure. Whalen said the new poll numbers suggest that the strategy to rely heavily on Sanders as a star endorser may be one of the factors in the proposition's declining numbers.

The “No on 61” campaign, backed by the drug companies, is “running an emotional campaign, putting veterans in front of you and pushing the patriot card’’ by suggesting passage would boost drug prices for veterans, Whalen said.

But the “Yes on 61” campaign’s ads and billboards prominently feature Sanders, “a politician,’’ Whalen noted. “At the end of the day, he lost the state by eight points to Hillary Clinton in the [presidential] primary," he said.

He said the Hoover Poll showed 73 percent of the measure's backers, asked their top reason for supporting the proposition, cited “the need for more laws to make life-saving drugs more affordable” and a whopping 72 percent said they believed drug companies “profit too much off the suffering of others."

“So why would you feature Bernie Sanders in your ads instead of someone who has been victimized by drug pricing — or someone who has lost someone because they can’t afford to pay for drugs?’’ Whalen said. “Why wouldn’t they fight fire with fire?”

South countered that Hoover Institution is "a conservative think thank" that may be expected to downplay the resonance of Sanders' message. He argued that focus groups and polling show Sanders "has been critical in maintaining our lead in the course of this bombardment from drug companies." In a presidential election in which a heavy turnout is expected among California Democrats, South said, Sanders' message has "really penetrated the electorate ... he's been a huge factor."

South also noted that the "Yes on 61" campaign is currently airing a spot focusing on Martin Shkreli — the drug company executive whom he called the "poster child" of industry greediness — to address consumers' concerns about making lifesaving drugs more affordable.

Proposition 61 would require California to negotiate with drug companies for drug prices “that are no more than is paid for the same drugs by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (DVA)." Because the DVA, which represents millions of patients, can negotiate for drug prices, it pays on average 20 to 24 percent less for medications than other state agencies and “up to 40 percent less than Medicare Part D,’’ backers say. The supporters, who include the 85,000-member California Nurses Association and the AARP, argue that the measure could save both the state and consumers billions of dollars.

Opponents’ ads have included members of the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the 35,000 member California Medical Association, who argue that the measure is flawed because it “covers only an arbitrary group of patients,’’ and does not apply to 88 percent of Californians. They argue the measure would result in a “new, bureaucratic prior approval process” and could result in higher drug prices for veterans.

Proponents of the measure have argued that Sanders’ long support for health-care reform and his stature with progressive voters have made him an effective voice in the fight for lower drug prices.

They also argue that the drug companies have bet heavily on defeating the measure at any cost, and cite a Dec. 16, 2015 piece published in the industry publication, Pharma Exec, in which the ballot measure was described as a potential “pricing disaster for the entire U.S. drug industry.'' The industry story noted that “this state is now poised to serve as 'ground zero' in a massive battle that ultimately may determine whether or not Rx price controls will be implemented any time soon in America.”

The Golden State poll by Stanford’s Hoover Institution of 1,250 registered voters was taken from Oct. 4 to Oct. 14 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.28 percentage points.

