IN JANUARY I hosted an online debate on gay marriage between Evan Wolfson (pro) and Maggie Gallagher (con). As expected, it was a lively affair, but in her otherwise abstruse remarks, Ms Gallagher noted a simple fact to support her argument: "a majority of Americans consistently reject gay marriage". I also mentioned this lack of support in my own remarks. Almost every time gay marriage has been put to a popular vote, it has failed. Recent opinion polls, meanwhile, have sometimes shown plurality support for gay marriage, but have failed to find clear majorities in favour of it. This has led to optimistic yet ambiguous headlines, like, "Fewer than half of Americans oppose gay marriage".

Today, the news is more clear. According to the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, more than half of Americans now support allowing gay couples to wed.

This milestone result caps a dramatic, long-term shift in public attitudes. From a low of 32 percent in a 2004 survey of registered voters, support for gay marriage has grown to 53 percent today. Forty-four percent are opposed, down 18 points from that 2004 survey.

The battle over gay marriage is not over, of course. Republicans and conservatives still oppose it by a two-to-one margin; evangelical white Protestants by a three-to-one margin. But even within these groups support for gay marriage has grown, and ABC notes that "support has grown sharply among others—notably, among Catholics, political moderates, people in their 30s and 40s and men." (Emphasis mine. Sorry your holiness.)

Once in a while a poll produces an outlier result, but the upward trend in support for gay marriage has been obvious for some time, and the majority milestone finally takes away a plank in the opposition's rhetorical argument. As our online debate showed, the rest of their argument is rather flimsy, while the case in favour of marriage equality is quite strong. More polls like this should lay the groundwork for what could be the next milestone for the movement: when a serious presidential candidate comes out in favour of gay marriage, instead of cowering behind support for states' rights and civil unions. Some are already suggesting that the issue is a political winner for pro-gay rights Democrats. We've certainly come a long way in a very short time.

(Photo credit: AFP)