There is a feeling of inevitability about the attack in Paris.

The likelihood must be that the killers were Islamic fanatics, the murder of the journalists and police underlining the degree to which the ferocious religious war being waged in Iraq and Syria now affects all of the world. Regardless of whether or not those who attacked the Charlie Hebdo office have any direct connection with this conflict, it has provided an ideal seedbed for Islamic extremism.

It was culpably naïve to imagine that sparks from the Iraq-Syrian civil war, now in its fourth year, would not spread explosive violence to Western Europe. With thousands of young Sunni Muslims making the difficult journey to Syria and Iraq to fight for Isis, it has always been probable that some of them would choose to give a demonstration of their religious faith by attacking targets they deem anti-Islamic closer to home.

One way of measuring the spread of al-Qaeda-type groups is to look at suicide bombings over the last week. Several of them have inflicted heavier casualties than at Charlie Hebdo. For instance, in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, today, a suicide bomber driving a minibus packed with explosives killed 33 police cadets. On Tuesday, another suicide bomber killed 23 Iraqi soldiers and pro-government Sunni tribesmen in a town in Anbar province north-west of Baghdad.

In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Show all 25 1 /25 In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting Police investigators search for evidence as an unidentified man is detained (L) during an operation in the eastern French city of Reims, after the shooting against the Paris offices of Charlie Hebdo In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting A bullet impact is seen in a window of a building next to the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo's office, in Paris AP In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting Police set up a piece of cloth at the back of a truck as they carry out a body from the offices of French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris Getty Images In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting Police block the roads next to the 'Charly Hebdo' headquarter where a shoutout occurred in Paris In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting A truck tows the car used by armed gunmen who stormed the Paris offices of satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo Getty Images In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting An injured person is evacuated outside the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo's office in Paris In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting French former Youth and Associations Junior minister Jeannette Bougrab (C) is comforted by an unidentified person outside of the headquarters of the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting French Justice Minister Christiane Taubira reacts outside of the headquarters of the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting French soldiers patrol in front of the Eiffel Tower in Paris as the capital was placed under the highest alert status after heavily armed gunmen stormed French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo and shot dead at least 12 people in the deadliest attack in France in four decades In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting Firefighters carry an injured man on a stretcher in front of the offices of the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting A victim is evacuated on a stretcher after armed gunmen stormed the offices of the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting A French Policeman is shot in the head in the street as two masked gunmen stormed the Charlie Hebdo headquarters, opening fire on staff In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting A bullet's impact on the window of the offices of the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris, after armed gunmen stormed the offices leaving at least 10 people dead In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting A police car riddled with bullets during an attack on the offices of the newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting French President Francois Hollande (C) arrives after a shooting at the Paris offices of Charlie Hebdo In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting France's interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve (C, L) and Paris' Mayor Anne Hidalgo (C, R) arrive at the headquarters of the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting Firefighters and police officers gather in front of the offices of the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting Firefighters and police officers gather in front of the offices of the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting Armed gunmen face police officers near the offices of the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting A police officer stands next to the bicycle of a police officer who was hit by a car near the shell of a bullet (bottom R) not far from the offices of the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting Firefighters carry an injured man on a stretcher in front of the offices of the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting Police forces gather in street outside the offices of the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting Firefighters carry an injured man on a stretcher in front of the offices of the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting Firefighters carry an injured man on a stretcher in front of the offices of the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris In pictures: Charlie Hebdo shooting Charlie Hebdo shooting Police officers and firefighters gather in front of the offices of the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris, after armed gunmen stormed the offices leaving "casualties", according to the publication's cartoonist, and "six seriously injured" police officers according to City Hall

The day before, gunfire and a suicide bombing killed the general heading the Saudi border control force and two others on the Saudi-Iraq frontier. A week earlier, on 30 December, a suicide bomb blew up outside the internationally recognised anti-jihadi Libyan government building in Tobruk.

In this widening sea of violence, regardless of who carried out the Paris massacre, it would be surprising if Western European states remained unaffected. One of the characteristics of the modern jihadi movement has been to commit highly public atrocities both as a method of intimidation and as a demonstration of the religious commitment of those carrying them out.

This was a feature of 9/11, suicide bombings in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan and the ritualised murder of journalists and aid workers on camera. An added benefit from the jihadis’ point of view comes if they can tempt the government into an overreaction that helps spread their cause.

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Thus George Bush and Tony Blair played straight into the hands of al-Qaeda by responding to 9/11 by sending armies in. The prison wardens of Abu Ghraib, by mistreating prisoners, and the CIA by torturing them, acted as recruiting sergeants. The counter-effectiveness of that strategy is demonstrated by the growth of al-Qaeda-type jihadi movements 14 years after 9/11.

Can anything be done to reverse the trend towards the spread of Islamic fanaticism? Catching and punishing those responsible for the Charlie Hebdo massacre is not going to deter people who have martyrdom as a central feature of their faith. But bringing to an end, or even just de-escalating the war in Syria, would begin to drain the waters in which violent jihadism flourishes.