The novel coronavirus, COVID-19, is in Alabama.

The virus that has caused the cancellation of pretty much all public events in the country is here. But, aside from the stores running out of toilet paper and other cleaning supplies, why should you care?

After all, if you’re young and healthy, most cases are fairly mild, right?

That’s mostly true. But it’s not about you. It’s not about whether you’ll be OK if you get it - it’s about the rapid spread of the virus, and what rapid spread will do to Alabama’s hospitals.

A widespread COVID-19 outbreak could break Alabama’s healthcare system.

There are roughly 5 million people in Alabama. Estimates project that if drastic measures hadn’t been taken, if events were not cancelled and schools not closed, then 40 to 70 percent of the U.S. population could be infected.

Let’s be conservative and say that 50 percent in Alabama contract it. That’s 2.5 million people. Around 80 percent will have mild symptoms or be asymptomatic. A note here - mild symptoms can range from hardly any symptoms at all to something more like the flu - not a good time, but you don’t need to go to the hospital.

That leaves 500,000 Alabamians who will need treatment at a hospital. Around 5 percent – 125,000 people - will need treatment in an intensive care unit.

There aren’t enough hospital beds in Alabama for that many people.

There were 1,692 ICU beds at Alabama hospitals in 2019, according to the State Health Planning & Development Agency. That’s nowhere near the 125,000 that could be needed in a scenario of rapid spread of coronavirus. Even if you start to look at beds from other parts of the hospital, it’s clear there aren’t enough.

There are just under 20,000 total licensed hospital beds in the state, according to information from the Alabama Hospital Association. But many of those are for psychiatric or rehabilitation purposes. There are only 16,500 licensed beds at Alabama hospitals that have an ICU.

Now, it’s unlikely that 2.5 million people will all get sick at the same time, but that’s what the preventative measures currently in place are trying to accomplish. Social distancing tactics like cancelling March Madness and Cher concerts could slow the spread of the virus enough to give hospitals time to treat some people, while others recover. It could keep hospitals from being overrun.

In a best case scenario, where everyone who needs hospital treatment gets it, the virus is likely 10 times deadlier than the flu. Death rates are all over the map, anywhere from less than 1 percent in South Korea to well over 6 percent in Italy. The difference between those two countries is how the hospitals were affected.

If Alabama is lucky and sees a death rate of 1 percent, 25,000 people could die. In an average year, 50,000 people in Alabama die of all causes. And it’s possible, if nothing is done, that the death toll could be worse.

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Do you have an idea for a data story about Alabama? Email Ramsey Archibald at rarchibald@al.com, and follow him on Twitter @RamseyArchibald. Read more Alabama data stories here.