A major winter storm is still on track for Minnesota Saturday, but I'm seeing some trends that suggest warm air may reach the Twin Cities near the beginning of the storm.

That could keep precipitation as rain for a few hours Saturday afternoon, which would lower overall snowfall totals in the Twin Cities.

The heaviest snowfall totals still look likely north and west of the Twin Cities. And a few "snowburst" hours could bring lightning, thunder and snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour Saturday evening.

Here's an update on thinking based on Friday's model trends.

Warm air layer reaching Twin Cities Saturday?

Models still suggest warm air layer may reach the Twin Cities Saturday. That could mean more rain at the beginning of the storm Saturday afternoon. That would reduce overall snowfall totals in the Twin Cities by a few inches.

The Canadian model has been persistent in pushing the warm air layer as far north as Minneapolis-St. Paul Saturday afternoon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's NAM 3 km resolution model agrees with that trend and paints a band of rain on the storm's leading edge that lingers in the Twin Cities at 3 p.m. Saturday.

NOAA NAM 3 km resolution model for 3 pm CST Saturday via tropical tidbits.

Euro too

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model has been keeping precipitation all snow all week for the Twin Cities. On Friday, the European model finally picked up on the rainy mix at the beginning of the storm. Temperatures in Celsius.

European model forecast for Twin Cities via the Norwegian Meteorological Center.

Here is the likely sequence of events based on the latest model trends.

Rain/ice/snow mix develops in southern Minnesota Saturday morning.

Precipitation (probably rain) reaches the Twin Cities between noon and 3 p.m. on various models. That’s a little slower than earlier thought.

Precip may be rain in the Twin Cities for a few hours Saturday afternoon, changing to all snow from west to east by late afternoon.

Heaviest snow should arrive between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m. Saturday in the Twin Cities. This burst could produce 1 to 2 inches per hour and thunder snow.

Lighter snow into Sunday morning.

Snowfall Totals

If precip stays as rain for a few hours Saturday afternoon, that will lower overall snowfall totals for the Twin Cities.

Right now, I am forecasting 4- to 8-inch snowfall totals in the Twin Cities. The Twin Cities National Weather Service office has been predicting anywhere from 8 to 12 inches.

This Canadian model snowfall output looks reasonable to me at this point. It suggests more like 4 to 7 inches across the Twin Cities with double-digit snowfall potential north and west.

Canadian model snowfall output via pivotal weather.

Warnings up

Regardless of storm details, travel is going to be difficult across most of Minnesota Saturday into Sunday. Winter storm warnings remain up for a large part of Minnesota this weekend.

Here's the Friday afternoon Twin Cities National Weather Service warning language.

Including the cities of Little Falls, Princeton, Mora, Foley, Elk River, Cambridge, Center City, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Hastings, Red Wing, Osceola, Hudson, River Falls, Prescott, Menomonie, and Durand 255 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CST SATURDAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph Saturday night into Sunday. * WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Wisconsin and central, east central and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...From noon CST Saturday to 7 AM CDT Sunday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult.

Stay safe out there this weekend.