Author: Nan Wang (@Tobrepeels on Sleeperbot)

Nan is a co-founder and CEO of Sleeperbot. He is a Niners fan and his favorite player of all-time is Jerry Rice.

Prior to the start of the season, Allen Robinson (“A-Rob” or “AR15”) was lauded as a certifiable fantasy football stud, mentioned in the same breath amongst other “elite” fantasy football players. His late first round / early second round draft position(ADP 14.3) was bolstered by bullish optimism, and expectations were high that the 3rd year receiver would continue to build on a stellar sophomore campaign where he had 80 catches for 1400 yards and 14 TDs.

As we reflect on his performance at the midpoint of the season, Robinson has turned out to be a disappointment. Through 8 weeks, he has only 32 catches, 366 yards and 3TDs — mediocre stats for his position and clearly not in the realm of others in his draft cohort.

What is especially worrisome is that despite his underperformance, there is still room for it to get worse. While many Robinson owners are hoping for a reversion (up) to the mean, the fact of the matter is that the Jaguar’s schedule was actually easier the first half of the season . The team has a brutal schedule against the Chiefs, Texans, Lions, Bills, Broncos, Vikings, Texans, Titans, and Colts to close the season. Notably, the Broncos, Texans and Vikings rank #1, #2, and #4 in passing defense in the league, respectively.

The preseason hype is gone, and I find it hard to believe that Robinson will come anywhere close to his production from last year, especially when factoring in matchup difficulty going forward. In fact, if they don’t make any drastic changes to the status quo in Jacksonville, Robinson may struggle to even eclipse 1,000 yards receiving (he is on pace for 836 yards with 9 games remaining).

So why has Robinson struggled so much this season, and what can we expect for the second half?

Well, most star players can usually find their way out of a rut, but in Robinson’s case much of his underperformance can be attributed to externalities beyond his control. Sure, he needs to shoulder responsibility for drops on catchable passes like the one below, but there are a myriad of other malaises plaguing the Jacksonville offense that need to be factored in. Whether he likes it or not, Robinson is affected by larger systemic problems within the Jaguar’s offense, including misguided play-calling, a weak offensive line, and a Quarterback who is struggling mightily with accuracy issues. I don’t see these being fixed quickly, and fully expect Robinson’s struggles to continue into the second half of the season.

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Part of the blame rests with Jacksonville’s coaching staff, who have effectively “caged” their top Jaguar this season with poor play calling.

One of Robinson’s advantages is that he is a deep threat — At 6'3 with “hops” like an IPA, he excels at meeting the ball at the highest point and outcompeting smaller defenders. He is dangerous in the open field, especially on deep post routes and streaks down the sideline. Last season, Robinson led the league with 31 catches of at least 20+ yard, and had an average depth of target (“ADOT”) of 17.5 yards on his routes. He was known widely around the league as someone capable of torching secondaries.

The play below showcases his prowess as a deep playmaker — Allen Robinson runs straight down the left sideline and attacks the ball in the air on a deep 21 yard streak. By positioning the ball high and away from the safety, it basically turns it into a one-on-one jump ball. Robinson feasts on cornerbacks in these situations, and these were the types of plays that fantasy owners drafted him for early in the season.

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This season, the Jaguars have been much more conservative on the play calling. They like to run a lot of 3 WR sets with Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Marqise Lee; but rather than unleash Robinson deep, often decide to relegate him to short 5-yard slant and 6–8 yard out routes. We see a lot less of the play above, and much more of the types of short plays below (from Week 8 against the Titans).

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By keeping Robinson to shorter routes, it limits his explosiveness and does not allow him to wreak havoc in the open field. The play calling is symptomatic of a Jaguars offense that has been afraid to attack deep — Robinson will get an occasional fade or post route for 15+ yards, but those are few and far between, and nowhere near how he was utilized last year.

As a result, Robinson has only four 20+ yard catches on the season, and his ADOT has dropped dropped to below 13 yards. He has zero plays for over 40+ yards this year, down from six a year ago. By playing him on more short routes, the Jaguars are under-utilizing his strengths and negating whatever advantages he may have had against smaller opposing secondaries. His height, explosiveness, and jumping ability are relegated to the background, and he is being forced on routes where he has to compete on precision, timing, and speed. Robinson is a fine route runner with reasonable speed, but opposing secondaries have now adjusted to playing him physically on shorter routes and negating many of his natural advantages. The Jaguars have an “AR15” at their disposal, but are currently using him as a Musket.

In the play below you’ll see Robinson run a quick slant from the left side of the field. A slight bump by the Titans linebacker blows up the timing and causes Bortles to “overthrow” the route, resulting in an incomplete pass. In these types of plays you take away the advantages Robinson has over his defenders, and allow defenders to throw him off his game.

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The Jaguars recently fired offensive coordinator Greg Olson and promoted Nathaniel Hackett internally to shake up the offense. Clearly something had to change on the offensive front, and whether this move was merely to find a scapegoat for the team’s woes, or a true concerted effort to make changes is still to be seen. Either way, sub-optimal play calling is just one of the issues.

Another issue at hand seems to be the inconsistent play of Quarterback Blake Bortles. No matter how talented a Wide Receiver is on paper, he is effective only to the extent that his Quarterback can deliver the ball. Unfortunately for Robinson, the chemistry between him and Bortles just isn’t there this season.

Bortles has thrown at Allen Robinson a total of 70 times already through 7 games (avg. of 10 targets per game), amassing over 908 Target Yards through the air in the process. Robinson clearly has seen the opportunities — since the start of the season (through week 8, including a BYE), only 11 players have been targeted more in the entire league. He has the same number of targets as Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr., but has failed thus far to translate those opportunities into top-tier fantasy performance.

The problem is that not all opportunities are created equal — many of the passes have been uncatchable, or thrown into routes with tight coverage. Of the 70 total targets, Robinson has only reeled in 32 receptions (an abysmal 45.7% catch rate). Through week 8, he has amassed 604 missed opportunity yards, #4 in the league behind only Mike Evans, Terrelle Pryor, and Will Fuller. Robinson and Bortles are not on the same page, and its clearly not due to a lack of trying.

Breaking down game film, we noticed a few patterns that may shed light on Bortles’ inconsistency. One of the most glaring issues is his throwing mechanics — Bortles has one of the slowest deliveries of any Quarterback in the league, largely due to his obnoxiously long wind up.

Proper Quarterback mechanics suggest that you hold the ball close to your chest and bring it up only when ready to throw, so as not to tip off the defense. When delivering the football you also don’t want to exaggerate the throwing motion, but rather deliver it quickly and efficiently with a “flicka da wrist.” Let Tom Brady demonstrate below.

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Contrast this with Bortles. Not only does he stare down the direction he intends to throw to, but his long wind up gives opposing secondaries extra time to jump a route. Bortles almost looks like he is trying to pitch a baseball rather than throw a football.

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Elite Quarterbacks excel at reading defenses pre-snap, and making split second adjustments post-snap. Peyton Manning was a master of the pre-snap routine, and Tom Brady continues to pick defenses apart with his post-snap judgment. Bortles, unfortunately, exhibits few of those traits.

He has a tendency to decide where he wants to throw pre-snap despite what the coverage is giving, and fails to go through his progressions and adjust when required. Case in point is the video below — the moment the ball is snapped, Bortles locks in on Allen Robinson and tips everyone off on where the play is going. He exacerbates the situation with the slow wind up and delivery. You’ll notice that not once does Bortles go through his receiver progressions. The defense knows the whole time where the play will go, and the safety cheats left, the linebacker cheats up, and by the time the ball is in the air there are three defenders surrounding Robinson stalking the errant pass. Result: Interception.

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The Jaguars have contracted Adam Dedeaux (a Motion Mechanics Expert) to work with Bortles on his throwing motion, but a lifetime of habit is not changed overnight. Just look at the many cases of Tiger Woods trying to change his golf swing and how that worked out.

For the remainder of the season, Robinson will be fighting an uphill battle of a new offensive coordinator trying to implement a new system, and a Quarterback trying to retool his throwing motion. While he hasn’t made it any easier for himself with dropped balls, these are large enough obstacles that I expect it will continue to hinder his efficacy.

I have resigned myself to the fact that the production through the first 8 weeks is more norm than outlier, and as a Robinson owner, I am now trying to figure out what to do because I don’t expect him to explode in the second half and make a meaningful impact on my fantasy season. At this point, he barely cracks my roster as a WR4 and is a trade-able asset.

My recommendation to others in a similar situation is to highlight the target numbers, especially the 15 targets he received last week, and offload him to a more optimistic league-mate. Sell him aggressively based off of “potential” and “involvement” with the knowledge in the back of your mind that those are all fluff words meant to deceive. Spin it how you will — new offensive coordinator, Bortle’s working on his mechanics…just try to extract maximum value for him while you can.

For me, the longer Allen Robinson stays on your roster the harder it will become to offload him if he continues to underperform. Right now is the perfect time to spin this as a salvage opportunity, and use it as bait for someone in your league who isn’t afraid to wish upon falling stars.

Otherwise, you’ll just get 9 more games of this:

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