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While Bank of Canada policy makers expect a sharp second-half rebound as oil production resumes and exports pick up, some investors are hedging their bets. Swaps trading suggests an almost 30 per cent chance Governor Stephen Poloz will cut interest rates by the October meeting to give the economy another jolt.

At the very least, the economy’s lethargy will add urgency to efforts by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Bill Morneau to bolster long-term growth ahead of the 2017 budget.

Based on Friday’s report, here’s what else we know about how Canadian economic output has changed over the past two years:

Stasis

Since May 2014, Canada’s economy has expanded 1.2 per cent. That’s the slowest two-year pace outside a recession in at least six decades, according to Statistics Canada monthly data back to the early 1960s. Until recently, the country typically mustered growth of least 5 per cent over two years.

Over the past 10 months, Canada’s economy has stalled altogether with zero growth. That’s mostly due to Alberta wildfires in May shutting down oil production. But there appear to be deeper forces at play. Averaging GDP over three months in order to reduce the effect of the wildfires still produces the same result: the worst two-year expansion outside a recession in decades.

Oil Industry

Output of mining companies, oil and gas producers and their support sectors plunged 14 per cent in May from the same month two years earlier. Averaged over three months, the decline is only 9 per cent. Excluding the May figures, oil production has held up relatively well in volume terms, even with the oil-price drop.