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It’s been more than two years since mayor Naheed Nenshi became the cuddly creature in charge of Calgary. One of North America’s first Muslim mayors, approval ratings place his popularity so high in the public mind that the thought of a serious challenger taking him on in this fall’s municipal election seems like a political kamikaze mission.

Despite high debt and three years of tax hikes, hand-painted portraits of the mayor are easily obtained at local art markets. He even has a gourmet doughnut named after him (it’s salted caramel.)

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Yet Mr. Nenshi is, in some ways, a mayor under siege in a city facing major changes.

Forces are aligning against him. A newly opened conservative think-tank is backing a cadre of candidates that could tip a delicate power balance on council. Fighting to gain new powers for the city has put him at odds with the ruling Progressive Conservative Party. And he’s being cast as an anti-suburban mayor in a town notorious for its love of wide lawns and picket fences.