It's near certain that this will be a big bang weekend for Bihar. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is likely to meet legislators from his party in Patna tomorrow to finalize their split from their ally, the BJP.Mr Kumar's party, the Janata Dal United or JDU, has partnered with the BJP at the national level for 18 years. In Bihar, they are in the midst of their second term.Their relationship has come undone because the BJP decided days ago to place Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat, in charge of its national campaign. The JDU has been an open critic of the chief minister; it alleges that Mr Modi did not do enough to stop hundred s of Muslims from being killed in Gujarat's communal riots of 2002Sharad Yadav, the President of the JDU, said again this morning that it's not all over for the alliance. But his colleague, Mr Kumar, has made it clear that he's moving on. He admitted yesterday that he is in talks to assemble a "federal front" of regional powerhouses with West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Odisha's Naveen Patnaik.Sources say the BJP will push for Mr Kumar to resign as Chief Minister and then meet the Governor with letters of support from other parties to prove that he should form a new government.

That may not be necessary. The JDU is just four seats short of a majority; independent MLAs or parties like the Congress have indicated they will be willing to help him bridge the gap.