Less than six months after Cricket Australia’s protracted standoff with its players concluded, the governing body is preparing for another clash – this time with TV executives. As the curtain calls on another summer of cricket, so too has the five-year broadcast rights deal with networks Nine and Ten. Up for auction now is all international cricket in Australia, plus the men’s and women’s Big Bash Leagues.

Chief executive James Sutherland and his team are aiming for a landmark $1bn deal for the years 2018 to 2023 (up from $590m), and hoping to follow the AFL and NRL, both of which saw an exponential rise in their most recent rights deals.

But that may be wishful thinking. Nine has been urged by financial analysts to drop their long-time association with cricket (or get more coverage for the same price it is currently paying), while Ten, which acquired BBL rights in 2013 for an industry-steal of $20m a season, has new owners (US network CBS) who may not be willing to stump up the $50-60m a season some say the BBL is now worth.

The likes of Foxtel or Optus, on the other hand, may see this as an opportunity to pounce. After losing the popular English Premier League rights and seeing a drop in A-league ratings, Foxtel, especially, is desperate to acquire exclusive summer content to reel in potential subscribers. The CEO of the newly-combined Foxtel-Fox Sports entity, Patrick Delany, has said they want to acquire all cricket rights. Optus too may be considering a tilt to further strengthen their sports offering to subscribers.

Thankfully for cricket fans without pay-television, they would be forced to on-sell all matches involving both Australian national teams to a free-to-air network as anti-siphoning laws prevent these from being shown exclusively on pay-tv.

The same protection, however, is not afforded to the BBL or WBBL, which have no legislative shield. And herein lies the issue. CA has said in the past it wants the Big Bash to remain in front of a pay wall. If a pay-TV provider were to present a large bid for BBL rights, Sutherland may be forced to decide between investment and exposure.

CA recognises the huge importance of the Big Bash in luring and maintaining young fans – new research shows the BBL is a clear favourite cricketing format for children aged between the ages of five and 15 – and any deal that denies access to those without pay-tv could have long-term ramifications.

But, broadcast rights do account for up to 80% of CA’s revenue, and it is unlikely CA would accept anything less than a significant increase on the newly-expired deal, given the BBL’s huge success. A joint bid between a pay-tv and a free-to-air provider is also a distinct possibility, whereby certain matches would be simulcast on both, while others would only be available to paying subscribers.

Much like the BBL, the WBBL has seen a steady rise in viewers over its three seasons, and the chance of it falling into pay-tv hands is perhaps even greater than that of the men’s competition. Last month the federal government awarded Fox Sports a $33m grant to support coverage of women and niche sports. CA has not stated whether it wishes to package both leagues under one network, as was the case with Ten, which broadcast 12 of 59 matches this season.

CA has, in the past, shown loyalty to incumbent broadcasters and many would argue that Ten deserve that same right. It is largely through their innovation and production that the format has succeeded through primetime Australian summers. But loyalty invariably has no place in rights negotiations.

It is possible that the doom and gloom forecasting by the free-to-air executives could be negotiating posturing – a downplaying of their ability to stump up what CA hopes for. Seven West Media chief executive Tim Worner said recently that free-to-air sport bidding has ‘reached a tipping point’. But CA will argue their products, especially the Big Bash, have never been stronger and deserve to follow other sports that have received a recent financial windfall.

Sutherland said after signing the last deal in 2013 that the revenue from it “is very important to our ability to invest in the continuing development of our sport”. Others will argue the best investment in the game is ensuring exposure to a maximum set of eyes.

The England and Wales Cricket Board, back in 2005 moved its entire televised cricket schedule to pay-tv provider Sky Sports after actively lobbying for cricket’s removal from the UK’s version of the anti-siphoning list. Sky’s investment in the game was unprecedented, however cricket’s popularity dropped on the back of no terrestrial exposure, and is yet to return.

While CA upcoming negotiations bear little resemblance to the ECB’s given all international cricket played in Australia is protected, the same issues of access for the Big Bash remain. Rights negotiations are a process of valuing every aspect of the game, and the value CA’s places on Big Bash remaining free for all will be seen in the coming months.