President Trump's job approval rating has jumped to 47 percent in a new poll from the Washington Post and ABC News, his highest-ever mark in the series. He is only three points underwater (47/50) among registered voters, according to the numbers. As usual, there are red flags for Team Trump peppered throughout the data -- but some of the top lines suggest that if the US economy remains in strong shape one year from now, the incumbent will be formidable, in spite of his perennially mediocre-to-poor public approval levels. In this snapshot, Trump's standing is essentially the same as Barack Obama's at this point in the 2012 election cycle:

President Trump’s approval rating has hit the highest point in his presidency, according to a new poll by the Washington Post and ABC News. The poll, which was released on Sunday, found that 47 percent of registered voters approve of Trump’s work inside the White House – a five point jump since April. Fifty percent of registered voters, however, still disapprove of Trump’s job in office. In comparison, Barack Obama’s approval rating during the same time in his first term was 46 percent...Despite [more than] six out of 10 Americans saying that Trump has acted in ways that are unpresidential, one-fifth of those voters still approve of the job the president is doing.

In addition to the survey showing Trump's overall approval rating on the rise, a majority of registered voters also give a thumbs-up on his handling of the economy. On that crucial front (in case to you missed it during the long holiday weekend), job growth beat expectations in June, relieving concerns about May's underwhelming unemployment report. And then there's the historic milestone that passed largely unnoticed last week:

No sign of a slowdown // Trump economy continues to grow.



“Hiring rebounds as U.S. economy adds 224,000 jobs in June; unemployment rate at 3.7 percent” https://t.co/WTE8oR5Ssd — Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) July 5, 2019

“Today’s jobs report shows the U.S. economy continues to create jobs at a strong pace even as we enter the longest period of economic expansion on record,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Bank. https://t.co/rKlchrrRir — The White House (@WhiteHouse) July 5, 2019



In another finding that will please the president, a strong majority of survey respondents oppose Congressional Democrats initiating an impeachment process. Speaking of said Democrats, they seem to have grown awfully quiet on that front, haven't they? That may change when Robert Mueller testifies on Capitol Hill next week. Fewer than three-in-ten voters say Trump's actions are "fitting and proper," while more than twice as many call his conduct "unpresidential" -- once again underscoring the fact that the president's own personal comportment is a real threat to his re-election prospects. As for the WaPo/ABC poll's (still statistically meaningless) hypothetical head-to-head battles, the president trails former Vice President Joe Biden by a substantial margin, but is statistically tied with the rest of the field's top contenders:

Hypothetical matchups among registered voters in this poll:



Biden 53%, Trump 43%

Harris 48%, Trump 46%

Warren 48%, Trump 48%

Sanders 49%, Trump 48%

Buttigieg 47%, Trump 47%



Sampling error +/- 3.5 https://t.co/PmLgbXpcmc — Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) July 7, 2019



Last week, we highlighted 2020 Democrats' risky embrace -- including among the "moderates" -- of taxpayer-funded healthcare for illegal immigrants, which is unpopular among voters. Even less popular is the proposed elimination of private insurance, forcing every American into a mandatory government-run system. Democrats are leaning into aggressively left-wing policies that could alienate many of the voters they counted on to win the 2018 midterms, and will need again to defeat Trump. In another example of this disconnect, liberals were fuming over the Trump administration's supposedly 'racist' proposal to revive a simple citizenship question on the 2020 US census (a move that may or may not have been shelved after a temporary setback at SCOTUS). A new YouGov/Economist poll shows that most Americans are...pretty strongly in favor of that intuitive and inoffensive move:



I'll leave you with this concerning early indicator for Trump's re-elect, with the opposition's just-discussed extremism lurking as a realistic mitigating factor: