Jim Prentice is the favourite to win the Tory crown, but a new poll suggests the race to become Alberta’s next premier is far from a coronation.

A survey by Insights West finds Prentice with a slight advantage over three other potential contenders — PC cabinet ministers Doug Horner, Ric McIver and Ken Hughes — for the party’s leadership.

Insights West vice-president Mario Canseco said the idea that Prentice could be the PC party’s saviour holds some validity, but the former federal cabinet minister still could face strong competition.

“I don’t think it’s a question of him showing up and the keys to the kingdom being handed to him,” Canseco said Tuesday.

“Prentice needs to connect in a very different way. This is a battle to win back the soul of the party.”

Under fire from her caucus and the public, Alison Redford suddenly quit as premier last month, sparking a search for a new PC leader that will culminate with party members voting in September.

When provided with a list of 14 politicians often mentioned as candidates for the party’s leadership, 26 per cent of respondents said Prentice would be a “good choice” for the top job.

Horner, Alberta’s finance minister, was second at 24 per cent, while rookie MLA McIver — the province’s Infrastructure Minister — was ranked third with 22 per cent regarding him as a good choice.

Former energy and municipal affairs minister Ken Hughes, the only declared candidate in the leadership contest so far, was fourth at 17 per cent.

Other potential candidates who are considering the job were well back: Jobs Minister Thomas Lukaszuk at nine per cent, Justice Minister Jonathan Denis at six per cent, Energy Minister Diana McQueen at five per cent and Conservative MP James Rajotte at five per cent.

Rajotte, MP for Edmonton-Leduc, said Tuesday he won’t run if Prentice, his former federal caucus colleague, joins the leadership contest.

“Whoever will be leader will face some challenges in terms of gaining back the support of Albertans, but I think Jim knows that going in,” he said.

“Albertans will want to see some very specific measures put in place and want to see what kind of person the new leader is before they switch their support back.”

A source close to Prentice confirmed Monday the former Calgary Centre-North MP intends to announce his candidacy for the top political job in Alberta next month. Some observers have already declared Prentice the overwhelming favourite.

The Calgary lawyer served in the Environment, Industry and Indian and Northern Affairs portfolios in the Harper government before leaving federal politics in 2010 to take an executive position with CIBC.

Canseco said Prentice has a clear advantage as an outsider coming into the provincial scene, unlike some of the cabinet ministers who have been involved in the unpopular moves made by the Redford government.

But Prentice still needs to connect to the base of the party and address any concerns that he’s viewed as an interloper, he said. Prentice ran unsuccessfully under the PC banner in the 1986 provincial election, and has only been elected at the federal level.

However, Canseco noted that among PC Alberta voters in the last election, Prentice is still first with 33 per cent saying he’s a “good choice” for the job, compared to 32 per cent for Horner, 27 per cent for Hughes and 26 per cent for McIver.

Lori Williams, a political scientist at Mount Royal University, said the poll indicates a couple of challenges face Prentice, but she believes he has the skill, experience and connections to attract support.

“Jim Prentice hasn’t been in the news for four years, and most people’s political memories are very short. He’s not high profile . . . In spite of that, the fact he’s ahead of everybody else is, I think, quite significant,” she said.

Insights West’s results come from an online poll of 622 Albertans conducted between April 23 and April 26.



With files from Darcy Henton, Calgary Herald

jwood@calgaryherald.com