The table of players for expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA) over the past 6 gameweeks includes a blend of FPL staples and big differentials ahead of Gameweek 30. Whilst mainstays like Aguero, Aubameyang and Pogba populate the top 20 for xG since Gameweek 24, others are more surprise inclusions. Yes, I’m looking at you, Ryan Babel.

Mo Salah scrapes into the expected goals top 20 by a beard whisker

When talk about a Salah exit was encircling FPL forums during the first half of the season, one unignorable wall stood in many a manager’s way: his incredible underlying stats. The week after some unfortunates finally took the plunge he scored a hattrick away at Bournemouth and has since ridden a wave of form that can only be compared to, well, Mo Salah last season.

But in recent weeks this form has dried up almost as quickly as Liverpool’s hold on the Premier League title and, perhaps more worryingly, so have his underlying stats. With just 2.04xG in his past 6 matches and no double gameweeks on the horizon, managers are once again faced with a difficult choice, only this time, even Salah’s hidden statistical credentials can’t save him now.

Despite his uncharacteristic form, the bookies have still given him a 62% chance of scoring against Burnley – the highest of any midfielder. Can he redeem himself against the Clarets?

Fulham still have some fight

Take a look at the expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) tables and one thing becomes quickly apparent: there aren’t many players featuring in both. Those that do are the usual suspects: Raheem Sterling, David Silva, Raul Jimenez and – of course – Ryan Babel.

Fulham may be as good as relegated, but their season has been a story of defensive woe, not attacking misery. Thus we find Mitrovic and Babel in the top 12 players for xG over the past 6 weeks; an anomaly that may well be compounded if their spirited GW29 performance against Chelsea under Scott Parker is anything to go by.

With an impressive 3.71xG over the past 6 gameweeks, Mitrovic has been a regular in the underlying stats department since his side earned promotion in the summer. He’s been underperforming but has proven himself to be more than capable of a haul this season. If Fulham are indeed going down, the stats show that they could well do it in style.

City are too dominant to ignore

I’m about to tell you something that may shake you down to the very core of your FPL-based beliefs: Man City are actually a pretty good side. If you don’t believe me (and who could blame you?) just take a look at their underlying stats.

Aguero (6.23) tops the xG table over the past 6 matches, consolidated by an impressive 8 goals during that time. The top 4 for xA is dominated by City assets, many of whom have played with reduced minutes in the past 6 matches too. Only the now-injured Pascal Grob (remember him?) supersedes them.

The conclusion will come as no surprise to you: if you don’t have any City assets, you need to think carefully about getting some in as soon as possible. All the signs (oh, and the bookie’s odds for GW30) are pointing to more dominance from Guardiola’s men.

Gameweek 30’s fixtures see plenty of intrigue for Fantasy Premier League managers, with top 6 clashes, bottom half scraps and new manager standoffs all on the menu. We’ve compiled the average xG and xGA for each team over the past 6 weeks, factoring in home and away records, to give us an idea of how these sides should perform this weekend. But what can we make of these stats?

Cardiff to regain their form

There isn’t much to be happy about for Cardiff fans at the moment. A string of defeats, 10 goals conceded in their last 3 games and, most recently, an injury to defensive lynchpin Sol Bamba has well and truly dropped the Bluebirds into a relegation battle they almost looked like dodging at one point. But of the teams playing away from home in Gameweek 30, West Ham travel to Wales with the lowest away expected goals over the past 6 games (0.79).

It could be a blessing for Cardiff, who have conceded 8 goals at the inventively named Cardiff City stadium in the past 2 games played there. A home xGA of 1.44 does little to salve the worries of their supporters, but in West Ham they have an unrivalled opportunity to buck the trend and find some much-needed form on home turf.

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Liverpool defenders beware

Consult the bookies’ odds this week and you’ll see that Liverpool have been given the highest probability of keeping a clean sheet when they host Burnley on Sunday. Whilst Anfield has proven to be the definition of a fortress this season, owners of Liverpool’s backline might be wary of Burnley’s recent form.

The Clarets have the second highest away xG (1.66) of any team playing away from home in Gameweek 30; impressive, considering that includes the likes of Wolves and Spurs. This, combined with Barnes’ impressive underlying stats (4.9xG in his last 6) means that it could be a harder afternoon for Liverpool than many observers are expecting. Nonetheless, they’ll head into the game with an average home xGA of 0.75 – the second lowest of the home sides in action this weekend.

Arsenal Expected to Reign on Solskjaer’s Parade

Though Manchester United have been running riot since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer joined before Christmas, the stats suggest that their impressive streak is due to come to an abrupt end. In Arsenal they visit a side who have been impressive at home; racking up an average home expected goals of 2.53, one that rubs shoulders with the notoriously prolific Liverpool (2.60) and Manchester City (2.67).

Combine this with a surprisingly mediocre average away xGA (1.55) for Manchester United and the outcome seems apparent: Arsenal are likely to score here. Probably more than once. United fans will point to their eye-catching away xG (1.88), the highest of any away team this week, but will have to hope their injury-ridden side are fresh enough after their midweek fixture to put Emery’s side to the sword. Expect goals in this one.

Expected Stats Dream Team Gameweek 30: