Democrats are scrambling to make the most of the unexpected yet slender opportunity Donald Trump has given them to challenge for the House majority.

Party operatives increasingly believe that Trump’s unpopularity could create a wave that would endanger Republicans’ 30-seat edge in the House. Now, Democrats are diving into the forbidding district-by-district math, scrutinizing under-the-radar and cash-starved House candidates who haven’t gotten attention from Washington thus far, to try and get their campaigns in good enough fighting shape to take advantage of a potential Trump backlash.


The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee last week capped a late recruiting surge, which began as Trump gained momentum in the GOP presidential race, by adding a final candidate in Florida before Friday’s filing deadline, in GOP Rep. John Mica. Trump’s stumbling campaign since he captured the nomination last month has spurred fresh Democratic hope that he’ll drag House Republicans down in November, especially in suburbs that are diverse, well-educated or both — places like Orlando, Florida; North New Jersey; Minneapolis; and even the old Republican bastion of Orange County, California, where a DCCC poll recently showed an unheralded Democrat tied with GOP Rep. Darrell Issa.

“We are going to take back the House and the Senate,” Hillary Clinton declared optimistically after meeting with House Democrats on Wednesday.

It’s still too soon to know whether the House is truly in play, pollsters in both parties say; they expect to have a clearer picture of the landscape in August, after the conventions. In the meantime, House Democrats are racing to make sure they have enough boats to ride a wave — if one comes.

“ There's been a weakening in [Trump’s] numbers, and the question is: When does that seep down into the House? ” said Jef Pollock, a top Democratic pollster in House races.

Republicans remain deeply skeptical that their commanding 30-seat House majority could be up for grabs. “I don’t believe it’s in play at all, ” said Gene Ulm, a longtime Republican pollster. “ I mean literally at all.”

If some Democrats now see a narrow road to the majority, the party is playing catch up after struggling with redistricting in 2012 and a wave election in 2014, which led many to write off their House chances last year. Democratic House candidates are far behind where Republicans were before they regained House control in 2010.

There are now 40 Republican-held districts around the country in which Democratic candidates have at least $100,000 in their campaign accounts, according to the latest campaign finance disclosures. But at this point in the 2010 election, Republicans had more than 80 candidates above that $100,000 benchmark in Democratic-held districts. The GOP went on to win 63 seats and flip the House.

“ Is it possible they could make it all the way? " said one experienced House Republican strategist, who asked for anonymity to candidly discuss the landscape. “ Sure. There are enough competitive seats out there. ”

But “they need everything to break their way,” the GOP operative added. “ Everything. And it never works that way. ”

Democrats are working to put more districts on the map. The DCCC and local Democrats are working to replace a candidate who dropped out of a Michigan district for medical reasons. And the party added a final piece to its recruiting puzzle Thursday when Stephanie Murphy, a Vietnamese immigrant and former Defense Department staffer, jumped into the race against Mica, whose recently redrawn Florida district is more diverse and more Democratic than ever.

The DCCC sees Mica’s suburban Orlando seat as an archetypal district that Trump makes more competitive: young, educated and relatively prosperous, with substantial shares of black and Hispanic voters. Democrats have recently landed new candidates in districts with similar characteristics outside Kansas City, Minneapolis and other large cities.

Murphy is pitching herself as more in touch with the changing district than Mica, a 12-term incumbent. "I don't think it's really about John, ” she said. ” This is district is a lot different than it was when John was first elected. ”

But Florida’s Friday filing deadline was one of the latest in the country, meaning the opportunities to add new candidates are slim. At this point, Democrats’ main objective is to check the traps for candidates in districts that once looked completely out of reach.

One example is Doug Applegate, a lawyer and former Marine colonel who had less than $14,000 in his campaign account earlier this month. Despite that, Applegate won over 45 percent of the vote in his all-party primary this month against Issa, a veteran GOP incumbent whom Democrats have never targeted before. The DCCC polled the district after his strong showing and found a tied race in the Southern California district.

Now, donors have started returning Applegate ’ s phone calls. “ People believe this is a real race now, ” Applegate said.

“ We want to kick the tires on districts like that, where we actually have candidates with good profiles, good stories, ” said Ian Russell, the DCCC ’s political director.

But it’s not clear whether all Democrats in such districts will have the resources they need to win, even with Trump on the ballot.

Take freshman GOP Rep. Ryan Costello, who represents a moderate suburban Philadelphia district. Costello stepped down from his post as a Republican National Convention delegate last week, joining a collection of other wary Republicans from battleground territory who will stay away from Trump’s nomination this summer.

But Costello’s opponent may not have anything close to the resources he’ll need to tie Costello and Trump together in voters’ minds. As of mid-April, Democrat Mike Parrish had less than $16,000 in his campaign account. A number of other Democratic House candidates in similar districts, where President Barack Obama ran close to or even beat Mitt Romney in 2012, are in similar predicaments.

And like many potential Democratic targets, Costello’s seat is located in a very expensive media market. When Republicans retook the House in 2010, their path ran through dozens of rural districts in the South and Midwest where campaigns and especially super PACs could buy a week or two of TV ads for relatively little money. But Democrats’ narrow House path runs through many of the nation’s largest media markets, where the cost of talking to voters multiplies.

Democrats may be left hoping that Trump’s unpopularity will outweigh Democrats ' lack of resources in enough districts to put them over the top. “Republicans are going to have more money to spend in many districts, but they are saddled by the fact that they are on the Trump ticket, ” Russell said.

“There are going to be Democrats who come to Congress who nobody is taking seriously right now, ” added Alixandria Lapp, executive director of Democrats’ main House super PAC, House Majority PAC. "There absolutely will be.”

Still, it’s not clear a Trump wave would break everywhere.

“It ’ s still a lot of work and it's not automatic” that voters will connect Trump and down-ballot Republicans, Russell said.

And while Trump trails in national polls, his numbers have held up relatively well in some blue-collar areas where Clinton is also deeply unpopular, operatives briefed on private surveys have said. Republicans argue that she’ll weigh Democrats down in the same way that Trump could hurt Republicans.

“House Democrats have a better chance at winning the lottery than they do at winning the majority this fall, ” Katie Martin, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement. “ They lack credible candidates in swing districts across the country and they are forgetting one simple thing — Americans do not like or trust Hillary Rodham Clinton.”

Scott Bland and Maggie Severns contributed to this report.

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