Surging New Democrats pull into the lead

Conservatives, Liberals tied for second

TORONTO June 16th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1281 Canadian voters, more than one third will vote NDP if a federal election were held today (34%), and this puts the official opposition in first place in the polls, with the Liberals (28%) and the Conservatives (26%) in a tie for second place. The Bloc Quebecois (7%) the Green Party (5%) and other parties (1%) are not competitive.





The NDP vote is characteristic of the youngest (43%), the least wealthy (39%) and the wealthiest (37%), in BC (30%) and among the best educated (43%).

The Liberal vote is common to older voters (45 to 54 and 65+ - 31%), the wealthiest (34%), in the Atlantic provinces (38%, down from 53% two weeks ago) and Ontario (31%). among Anglophones (31%) but not Francophones (15%), and among females (29%) but not males (26%).

The Conservative vote is characteristic of the oldest (29%), males (30%), the wealthier ($90K to $100K - 34%), in Alberta (39%, down from 49% two weeks ago) and among the least educated (30%). There is little appeal for this party among Francophones (16%) or mothers of children (23%).

In Ontario, all three parties are essentially tied (Conservatives - 30%, Liberals - 31%, NDP - 33%). In Quebec, the NDP leads (31%), with the Liberals (24%) and the newly resurgent Bloc (26%) tied in second place. The Conservatives do not contend in Quebec (15%). In Alberta, the NDP is very close (35%) behind the dominant Conservatives (39%).

Of note, one sixth of those who voted Conservative in 2011 will vote Liberal this time (14%) and a tenth will vote NDP (10%). Among those who voted Liberal in 2011, as many as one quarter will vote NDP this time around (25%). Of those who voted NDP last time, just one tenth will vote Liberal this year (13%), a figure which used to be in the high 20s and low 30s.

With respect to our last sounding of public opinion two weeks ago, The NDP have essentially changed places with the two other parties (June 5 - Conservatives - 31%, Liberals- 32%, NDP - 28%).

Thin NDP minority government seen

If these results are projected up to a 338 seat House of Commons, the NDP would capture a minority of 120 seats, 50 fewer than needed for a majority. The Conservatives would be very close with 112 seats, and the Liberals would take 86. The Greens would retain their Leader’s seat and the newly resurgent Bloc would take as many as 18 seats. If André Arthur runs as an independent, he would retain his seat.

Harper’s approval tumbles, Mulcair’s up

Prime Minister Harper has the approval of just more than one quarter of voters (28%), down from one third two weeks ago (33%) and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is an abysmal -34, down from -27 last time. These are the lowest approval ratings we have recorded for this Prime Minister. Tom Mulcair’s approval has risen to half (49%) from less than that (46%) two weeks ago, and his net is a very positive +24. Justin Trudeau has seen his approval stay in the same band (40% now, 38% two weeks ago) as does his net score (a neutral -1 now, +2 two weeks ago).

Despite NDP lead, voters expect Conservative victory

Despite voting intentions that clearly point to an NDP preference, most voters now expect the Conservatives to win the election (30%) after giving this measure to the Conservatives and the Liberals equally (31% each two weeks ago). Now the Liberals are seen to be in second place (26%), tied with the NDP (25%).

"Well, we can’t speak of a tie anymore, or a hung parliament. The NDP own first place fair and square, and their leader’s approvals are soaring, while the Prime Minister's favourables are plumbing new unexplored depths. It may be wondered at this point, however, if the NDP aren’t cresting too soon, four months out from E Day," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.