Baltimore Orioles Q&A with National Analysts

The Winter Meetings have long passed, and the calendar is preparing to change to 2015. As January arrives, it is only a matter of weeks until Pitchers and Catchers report for the start of Spring Training.

To look at where the O’s currently stand, and to forecast what could be forthcoming during the remainder of Winter – we’ve reached out to several analysts who cover the game. BSL thanks the following for giving their thoughts.

Mike Axisa, CBS Sports

Jason Collette, ESPN SweetSpot, RotoWire

Nick Faleris, Baseball Prospectus

Bryan Grosnick, Beyond the Boxscore

Matthew Kory, Forbes

Matthew Pouliot, NBC Sports / Hardball Talk, Rotoworld

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

BSL: With Markakis now in Atlanta, the Orioles will have a new starter in RF. To replace him, the O’s could go with an existing option (De Aza or Pearce), sign a Free Agent such as Rasmus or Aoki, or pursue a trade. (Jay Bruce and Seth Smith have been named as potential targets. If Smith was obtained, he would likely man Left, with De Aza in RF, and Pearce at DH.) What option is most attractive to you? (EDIT: Smith was traded to Seattle Tuesday night, after the analysts had responded to this question.)

Axisa: Since acquiring Bruce figures to be rather expensive despite his down year, I’d target Seth Smith if I was the Orioles. He can crush righties but will need a platoon partner for lefties. He should come relatively cheap — a good but not great prospect or two — and fits the roster well. The O’s probably won’t be able to replace all the offense they lost in Markakis and Cruz this winter, but Smith will help.

Collette: A deal for Smith makes sense with Delmon Young back in the fold as they would make a nice offensive platoon. Smith can’t hit lefties while Young should only be facing lefties.

Faleris: I’m not sure there is a pressing need at an outfield corner, and would probably be content working with in-house options and rolling the dice on whomever makes the most sense on a short-term deal. I don’t see impact on the free agent market, and Baltimore may be better positioned utilize resources to lock up in-house talent over the next eight months. Further, there should be ample opportunity to find a rental in-season if an upgrade is needed along the way.

Grosnick: Given the O’s needs in other areas (depth, rotation, etc.), I’d go with non-trade options, and roll with whom the team has rather than spending money that would go to another area. Steve Pearce has earned an everyday spot (hopefully DH), and De Aza would be fine in right, especially given the need for decent defense alongside Adam Jones.

Kory: Jay Bruce is an intriguing buy-low option if the Reds are indeed looking to move him after a tough season. He fits what the Orioles do well, i.e. hit for power and play strong defense. Like always though, the answer to this question depends on the specifics. How much will Bruce cost to obtain? How much are Rasmus and Aoki looking for on the free agent market? De Aza represents an in-house bounce-back candidate, though he’s never achieved as high a level of productivity as Rasmus or Bruce. The most attractive option is going to depend on what it costs to go with that option, and that includes the cost of acquiring the player and paying the player. So, even if Rasmus is the best option, he might require a two or three year deal, which could push him out of the bargain bin. To me, Pearce has to be in the lineup. He’s likely not a five win player going forward as he was last season just based on his career as a whole and simple regression, but even if he’s a three win player in 2015 he’s likely the best and cheapest option available. The Orioles know this (and Billy Beane doesn’t run them so, unlike Josh Donaldson, Pearce won’t be traded) so he will be in the starting lineup. That leaves left field open and, as of now, De Aza is probably the best option because he’s already under team control. But if Bruce is available as a salary dump, his two year, $25.5 million deal becomes intriguing.

Pouliot: Given that Bruce would surely cost a bundle, I’d go the Rasmus route. He’s been awfully inconsistent, but he’s 28, his lows aren’t as low as some like to think and he’s merely a year removed from playing at an All-Star level. Camden Yards is also pretty much the perfect place for his left-handed power. If he wants a one-year, make-good contract, Baltimore is the perfect spot for him to try to rebuild his value. And if he wants a two- or three-year deal, I’d be just fine with that, too.

BSL: Davis was All-World in ’13, but suffered through a horrible ’14 even prior to the 25 game amphetamine suspension which ended his year. He made $10.35M in ’14. What do you think he will make in arbitration this year? I anticipate most forecasts will split the difference between his ’13, and ’14 seasons; and project his ’15 season to resemble his 2012 year. What are you expecting from him this coming year?

Axisa: MLB Trade Rumors projects $11.8 million for Davis and their arbitration model is very good, so I expect him to earn something close to that. As for his output, I think it’ll be right about the midpoint of his 2013 and 2014 seasons. Hitting 53 homers is very, very tough to do and I don’t think it’s fair to expect anyone to do that again. He has shown he is a true talent 30-homer guy though, so I think 30-35 homers with a sub-.330 OBP and a 110-ish OPS+ is a reasonable expectation for 2015.

Collette: Power is costly in arbitration, and Davis should get north of $12M. He reapplied & received his TUE for 2015, so at least that’s off his mind. .240 (league hit .251 last year) with 35 homers is where I see him in 2015.

Faleris: With apologies, my current involvement in this off-season’s arbitration process precludes me from commenting publicly on cases until they have been settled or finalized. As far as 2015 production, I am fairly confident things won’t be as bleak as they were in 2014 (how could they be, right?). But there is a book out on Davis and he’s going to have to show an ability to adjust. That means not getting pull-happy, and avoiding early extension and prematurely opening his hips, which I believe played a part both in limiting his coverage on the outer-half and sapping some of that big raw power as he was worked away. Get back to a more balanced approach and taking what’s given to you – the power is easy and natural and will follow with more regular solid contact. 2012 is the easy “middle ground” answer, and as fine a starting point as any.

Grosnick: With Davis’s suspension over, and his exemption for the use of said amphetamines renewed, I’d expect his season to be about 110% of his 2012 production, or not too far from his Steamer projection. 30 homers, improved walk rate over 2012, and defensive numbers that will drag him down in terms of WAR metrics.

Kory: It sounds like a weak answer, but I’d expect something better than his 2014 but worse than his 2013. Last season Davis simply didn’t hit the ball as hard as he had in 2013. His fly balls didn’t go as far, he didn’t hit off-speed pitches as well in particular, and then there was his success against the shift, which is to say he had far, far less success against the shift than in ’13. It’s difficult to look at the numbers and say what the problem was last season. It’s possible that just as Davis started to figure out the mental aspect of hitting his body lost just enough to age that he started missing pitches by an inch. That leads to bad habits which leads to more bad habits and in the end he never recovered. To answer the question specifically, I don’t think the Orioles can go into 2015 expecting the 2013 version of Chris Davis. If they get that then hooray, but they’re going to have to plan to the extent they can for the 2014 version and make up that production elsewhere on the roster. Healthy Matt Wieters and healthy Manny Machado, if indeed they exist, should help tremendously.

Pouliot: That .827 OPS that Davis finished with in 2012 seems just about right, probably with a lower batting average and more walks. Davis seemed so lost at the plate as last year went along, but even so, he hit 26 homers in 450 at-bats and the jump in his strikeout rate wasn’t all that prodigious. His swinging-strike percentage was completely unchanged. My guess was that all of his struggles against the shift got into his head and just compounded his problems. I don’t think he’s any sort of lost cause, and at the $12 million or so he’ll make next season, he should still be an asset.

BSL: Going into ’14, my assumption with Wieters was that the O’s would allow him to play out the remaining two years (through ’15) on his contract; and allow him to walk. He was off to a positive start prior to being lost for the year. How does the injury impact what you think the O’s should be looking to do with Wieters (push for an extension, let him play out ’15, look to trade) this off-season?

Axisa: I don’t think it really changes anything. He’s a Scott Boras guy and Boras almost always takes his top clients out on the open market. You can be sure he’ll be looking to top the Russell Martin and Brian McCann contracts next winter. The O’s could try to push for an extension while his value is down, but I doubt Scott goes for it. At the same time, they’d be selling low if they try to trade Wieters. I’d keep him, try to win with him in 2015, then try to re-sign him after the season.

Collette: He’s a Boras client so he’s going to hit the free agent market as nearly all of his clients do. He was hitting for a good average last year, but his batting average on balls in play was also well above his career norm despite no demonstrative change in skill. We’re still talking about a guy that has yet to slug over .450 in a full season.

Faleris: Baltimore will have to wait and see with Wieters. My guess is that he’s likely to end-up signing elsewhere, as I don’t see an obvious negotiating sweet spot where Wieters would get the type of extension offer he wants coming off of a lost season and Baltimore would get the discount it probably deserves in taking on the added risk associated with that missed time. Hope for a productive year that allows you to make a qualifying offer and see what he’s looking for in free agency when the time comes.

Grosnick: Too valuable to let him play out and walk, the Orioles should look to extend Wieters if he comes back strong, and – sadly – sell low if his productions slips substantially. Catchers who can hit and play defense are too hard to find.

Kory: I don’t think it impacts it at all. Injured players are worth less on the trade and free agent markets because of the uncertainty surrounding their production post-injury and Wieters is no different in that regard. The Orioles weren’t likely going to be able to extend Wieters before the injury anyway and it’s unlikely he’ll accept a reduced contract offer following the injury as he’s going to still want top dollar only one year out from free agency. If the Orioles want Matt Wieters long term they’re going to have to outbid the market after the 2015 season.

Pouliot: At this point, it’s really hard to imagine an extension coming together; he’s never shown any signs of wanting to give a discount. I’d keep him in the hopes of winning this year and while also rooting for Yasmani Grandal to have a breakthrough season in Los Angeles. If the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox are all happy with their catching situations. it’ll be that much easier to re-sign Wieters in free agency. And I do think he’s a keeper.

BSL: For the second consecutive season, the O’s most talented all-around player (my opinion) saw his season end early with a knee injury. What is your level of concern about Machado’s health going forward, and what do you anticipate from him (general terms) over the next couple of years?

Axisa: I agree that Machado is their most talented all-around player but the production doesn’t match the hype just yet. He’s an all-world defender but he’s basically been a league-average hitter in nearly 1,300 plate appearances. I feel like most people consider him a star when he isn’t there just yet. Anyway, I am concerned about his health because he’s already had surgery on both knees despite being only 22. That might sap his mobility and hamper his range a bit. They aren’t the type of injuries that could derail his career like, say, a pitcher blowing out his shoulder, but they’re a concern. How they could they not be? Hopefully Machado makes it through 2015 completely healthy. I’d like to see what he could do.

Collette: His production has been very consistent for a young player. His 2013 and 2014 slash lines are nearly identical, but the decline in strikeout rate last season was a bit alarming. His Steamer projections show a slight bump in power, but overall, something very much in line with what 2013 and 2014 were. I can’t argue with that.

Faleris: I think the knee is a huge concern, if for no other reason than we know there are structural issues at play and he has yet to handle a full-season major league workload. Hopefully he’ll enjoy a healthy 2015 that will allow him to continue to refine his approach and start tapping into the raw power that’s bubbling just below the surface. If healthy, I expect to see a talented defender that grows into solid middle of the order power. That should also prevent pitchers from getting so aggressive early in the count, force them to work the margins, and give Machado a chance to get his OBP up around 50-points higher than his average, which would complete the offensive package. Could be a .285/.335/.485 type – basically Anthony Rendon with a little more pop and a little less on-base ability, though Rendon’s overall feel and much better contact rates make him a less volatile bet.

Grosnick: Health is a skill, and the biggest predictor of future health is past health. That having been said, I expect three-win seasons from Machado for the foreseeable future as his bat improves and his defense does not.

Kory: There has to be a heightened level of concern for Machado’s health. Knee injuries are serious and Machado, now all of 22 years old, has had two of them, and in consecutive seasons. The injuries likely mean a few things. First, there’s now fully legitimate concern about Machado’s ability to play a full season. That’s the kind of thing that you have to just wait and see about. The Orioles will need to build in some depth at third base to plan for the possibility of his absence. Second, there’s Machado’s defense. Were he still at shortstop, this would likely be a bigger concern. Still, working knees are vital to defense at any position. His otherworldly arm will still be there in all its glory, but the fast twitch movements necessary for success at third base may be slowed a bit by two reconstructed knees. We’ll have to wait of course, but it would be reasonable to think this latest surgery may mark the end of the ‘Manny Machado: best defensive third baseman in baseball’ era. Third, you worry about his hitting. The second injury came while swinging at a pitch from the batters box so there may be some mental scars that need healing, at least initially, but Machado’s speed and thus BABIP could also be affected. I’d love to shrug this all off, to say the talent we all saw on display in 2012 and ’13 will still be there in full, but two serious knee injuries in two seasons are tough to ignore. If he can stay healthy, I’d anticipate the talent to be one of the best players in the game will still be there, but whether or not he can is now an open question.

Pouliot: At least it wasn’t the same knee both times. I don’t claim to know enough about Machado’s abnormalities to predict whether he’ll go on to have a relatively healthy career. I hope so. I particularly hope he stays healthy this year, since he still has a ways to go offensively and he really needs the at-bats. The bat speed and ability are there to make him one of the AL’s best players.

BSL: Leading up to the 2014 season, the O’s had been quiet during the Winter prior to their February additions of Jimenez and Cruz. In Baltimore it has been debated if the Jimenez signing was the sole result of the O’s correctly reading the market; realizing that the draft compensation tied to him would eliminate other suitors – or was it also a bit of fortuitous luck that he remained as an available option? Further to that, would they have signed 2014′s Most Valuable Oriole (Cruz) if they had not already given up their 1st round pick for Jimenez? You can go round-and-round with that line of thinking. Since the ’14 season ended the Warehouse has again been quiet. In addition to the loss of Markakis, the O’s have additionally seen Cruz and Miller leave. Are you currently anticipating the O’s making any acquisitions of note, or do you believe they will go with essentially with what they have?

Axisa: Well, at this point the only big free agents left on the board are Max Scherzer and James Shields, and I would be surprised if Baltimore committed $20+ million annually to a pitcher. I supposed they could make a trade for Cole Hamels, but otherwise there aren’t any trade targets to be had. Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, et all have already been dealt. I think last offseason was a combination of luck and reading the market well. Remember, the pitching market developed very late because everyone was waiting for Masahiro Tanaka to be posted. The Orioles were rewarded for their patience with Cruz but Ubaldo was clearly a flop. Ervin Santana was still available and I felt at the time he was the better target, and certainly that’s the case now in hindsight. I do think the O’s will add a few pieces, maybe someone like Smith to help fill the outfield, but I don’t see any big ticket items falling into their lap late in the offseason like last year.

Collette: I think they mostly have their roster in place. They can go get an outfielder from San Diego, who has way too many on their depth chart.

Faleris: Based on what we’ve seen out of this front office, I would not bank on seeing an “acquisition of note”, and that may be fine. It’s already a very solid team, and you should have funds available to start locking-up your in-house foundational players, which is probably more important than forcing a move in free agency just so you feel like you are being proactive in adding pieces. As an aside, I’m not sure I’d describe the Jiminez signing as “fortuitous”, but hopefully he’ll eat innings and put up solid number four numbers overall going forward. That’s not so bad for the price.

Grosnick: I anticipate that the Orioles will not make a big move, but rather smaller supplemental moves. Another starter, depth, etc. I’m not expecting Scherzer.

Kory: That likely depends on whether or not the Orioles can increase payroll. Last season they spent $107 million on player salaries according to Cot’s Contracts. This year they’re projected to spend around $112 million assuming the roster doesn’t change (that they keep De Aza, for example). Maybe as much as any team the Orioles could use a Cole Hamels or a Max Scherzer, but taking on that kind of salary doesn’t seem to be the Orioles thing. I would expect Dan Duquette to keep shopping in the bargain bin (as he did so successfully last season) for at least another year. After 2015, Wieters, Davis, and Chen will be free agents which will clear up significant payroll space and also require the team to acquire their replacements. If the Duke is still in Baltimore by then (assuming the rumors of him heading to Toronto or Minnesota don’t come to fruition) I’d expect one or two larger additions to the payroll, possibly in the form of a top starting pitcher.

Pouliot: Is Delmon not exciting? Besides the hole in right field, I’m not sure it’s worth trying to do much else right now. I’m not necessarily thrilled with the idea of Pearce/De Aza/Young/Lough covering two lineup spots, but I also think it’d be worth giving up prospects in the hopes of marginal upgrades. Between those veterans, Christian Walker and Henry Urrutia, the Orioles should prove fine in the end. It just might take a while to sort out what works and what doesn’t.

BSL: 2014 was mostly a mess for Jimenez, with his mechanical changes in September giving some hope going forward. With plenty of money owed to him, and his value at a low; it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the O’s would be able to move him this Winter (unless they ate a lot of money, or swapped him for another player with significant money owed). As is, the O’s have 5 other starters (Tillman, Gausman, Norris, Chen, Gonzalez) they can feel good about. Should the O’s look to move one of Norris, Chen, or Gonzalez – or do you believe they should bring those 6 starters back, and figure that depth is a good thing?

Axisa: If they can dump Jimenez, they absolutely should. There’s basically nothing in his track record that suggests he can be even an average MLB starter across a full season. He had a nice finish to 2013 — most of those starts came against the punchless Astros, Twins and White Sox, by the way — but he has an 88 ERA+ over his last 673 innings. That’s just who he is now. If the O’s can unload him, they should. Otherwise I’d keep everyone else and enjoy the depth. Norris, Chen, Gonzalez, all of them.

Collette: It’s an old cliche, but it is true – you can never have enough starting pitching. I’d rather go into camp with too many guys and see how it plays out around the league. They’re most likely stuck with Jimenez unless they could swap him for another headcase like B.J. Upton, but there’s a $12M difference in money there as well.

Faleris: I’ll tell you what, if the Phillies showed any interest in taking on the risk associated with Bundy and Harvey I’d probably be okay packaging those two with one of Chen or Gonzalez as the foundation for a Cole Hamels deal. He’s expensive, but that’s a contract I wouldn’t mind taking on. The thought of Hamels/Gausman/Tillman at the front of the rotation is pretty exciting, and you should have extra picks between the 2015 and 2016 drafts to restock the farm. There actually isn’t anyone in the system that would be off-limits for me if Philly was willing to make the deal. Of course, I think they get a better combination of players elsewhere, but this is the rare situation where I think trading for the pitcher with a big contract is the right move.

Grosnick: Well, if you have a lot of faith in those six guys going forward, good luck to you, but I don’t. Ditch one or both of Norris and Gonzalez ONLY IF you can upgrade. Otherwise, roll six deep, or even get another guy. Trust me, you’ll need it.

Kory: Depth in starting pitching isn’t a good thing, it’s a required thing. The Orioles needed six starters to make it through the season and they did quite well in terms of starting pitcher health last year. Here is how many starting pitchers each AL East team needed last season:

Yankees: 13

Red Sox: 11

Blue Jays: 9

Rays: 11

That’s an average of 11 starters used per team, a number the Orioles beat by five. My guess is Baltimore will likely need six or more starters in 2015. That all said, if a good deal comes along, make it, but expecting to get through next season with five or six starters is probably wishful thinking.

Pouliot: The Orioles probably could have flipped Jimenez for a bad contract — maybe Nick Swisher or B.J. Upton — but it might have made more sense to keep him. He has just as much chance of being an asset as anyone he would have brought back, and if he’s not… well, at lets you don’t have to waste 500 at-bats figuring it out. You can just bury him in the pen. If I were the Orioles, I’d be open to moving Norris or Chen, but certainly not cheaply in either case. Jimenez’s declining stuff makes him a very difficult guy to trust, but he’d probably be an adequate fifth starter. With Dylan Bundy perhaps an option come May, the Orioles would still be in a pretty good spot, pitching-wise.

BSL: It is not overly plausible that the O’s would consider getting involved with either James Shields, or Max Scherzer, but would you argue for the O’s to pursue either one?

Axisa: Hey, if any team can afford those guys, they should be after them. They’re both difference makers. The O’s payroll has been slowly climbing these last few years and should continue to go up given the new national television deals and their playoff revenue, but they’re going to need some major money to re-sign Wieters, who I think is a critical piece. Tillman, Gausman, and Machado are all going to get expensive soon too, plus they’ll either have to re-sign or replace Davis and Norris next winter. If they can make it work financially, yeah, go for Scherzer or Shields. I’m not sure if the long-term financials make sense for them though.

Collette: No, not unless they could get a bailout from the Jimenez deal.

Faleris: Not for the contracts they are going to demand. I think Baltimore has to go five years to get Shields, which I don’t like, and Scherzer is likely going to be $25-plus million per year for at least six years. Give me Hamels and I’ll worry about rebuilding the farm starting this June. Seriously, Hamels/Gausman/Tillman – get it done…

Grosnick: Yep, but only if the team is looking to increase payroll quite a bit over the next five years. Otherwise there are wiser ways for this mid-market team to spend their cash.

Kory: Scherzer represents an exciting option and I’d encourage any team to go after him. It’s not often a pitcher of his caliber hits the market. Yes, he’ll command a huge contract over lots of years, but the Orioles have the money to spend and last season’s first round draft pick isn’t a high one and won’t be a significant loss. Scherzer is a five or six win pitcher right now and for a team like Baltimore who has some depth in their rotation but nobody who fits the description of an ace, Scherzer would be a tremendous pickup.

Again I’ll turn to the AL East. Last season, the Orioles spent $107 million on player salaries. Boston spent $156 million. New York spent $197 million. Toronto spent $137 million. Adding $27 million per season for Max Scherzer wouldn’t move the Orioles past Toronto into third place on the list. That’s not a reason to spend, of course, but the money is likely there if Baltimore chose to spend it. There aren’t many better options to improve the team with one stroke without having to spend talent than Max Scherzer.

Pouliot: Well, it’s not my money, but I think it’d be worth paying the price to go get Scherzer. Adding a top-10 starter to the mix would make the Orioles the AL World Series favorites headed into spring training. And while you can’t count on any starting pitcher holding up for six or seven years, Scherzer hasn’t displayed any durability issues and he has less mileage on his arm than most pitchers his age. As for Shields… well, if you’re going to go crazy for a starter, I’d say do it for Scherzer.

BSL: Steve Pearce was an important part of the O’s 2014 season. Should the O’s be comfortable on relying on him again producing during his age 32 season?

Axisa: I can’t say I’m confident he will repeat his 2014 season, but I’d run him out there until he shows he can’t do it again.

Collette: Anytime a guy has a career season at age 31 after bouncing around the league, you should look at it with eyebrows raised. Pearce excelled because he hit the snot out of fastballs, particularly up in the zone. He slugged .761 on fastballs in the upper half of the strike zone last season to lead all of baseball. That was 89 points better than the next guy on the list – Jose Abreu. Baseball is a game of adjustments and the league will see those numbers and now try to pound him low in the zone as the Royals did in the postseason.

Faleris: Sure, I don’t see any reason he couldn’t be a .265/.335/.465 bat to go with 20-plus homers That’s a nice little number six bat in a first division line-up. If you need him to be the top run producer on your squad, I would say it’s possible but improbable.

Grosnick: Producing? Sure. Hitting like 2014 again? Heck no. 10-20% above league average for another year or so, then decline.

Kory: They should be, but they should expect a lower level of productivity. That doesn’t mean Pearce won’t be the same guy he was last season, but planning for some regression is the smart thing to do. Still, I’d expect Pearce to start in Baltimore next year and be a productive member of the club.

Pouliot: No, not really. But then, you don’t really need to. I like Walker as the choice to step in for him if he falters. By season’s end, I’d expect Pearce to be playing primarily against lefties, maybe in a left-field platoon with De Aza.

BSL: On the eve of the Winter Meetings, it was reported by ESPN’s Buster Olney, and FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal that Duquette was a top candidate to become the President of the Toronto Blue Jays. On the 24th, MASN’s Roch Kubatko reported that Duquette’s departure remains a possibility. If Duquette were to leave, we wrote about some possible replacements here. In that scenario, who would you suggest that the O’s target? If compensation came back from Toronto, what do you think would be a fair return from the Jays?

Axisa: I don’t think the compensation would be much at all. The Cubs got a minor league reliever for Theo Epstein, for example. It seems like the “trade” return for managers and executives is always underwhelming. As for replacements, they could stay in house with someone like Brady Anderson. Finding people to work with Peter Angelos isn’t easy and Anderson has shown he can and is willing to do it.

Collette: Compensation these days is usually next to nothing; Boston recently released the guy they got from Chicago for Theo Epstein. I’d like to see Kim Ng finally smash through that glass ceiling.

Faleris: I think John Coppolella is going to be a great GM, though it probably comes in Atlanta with him sharing those duties with Hart as of this fall. Baseball Prospectus ran a piece on some top future GM candidates last summer that I think is largely relevant (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23978). Without naming names, there are a couple of folks in the Cardinals, Cubs, and Rangers ranks that could really help Baltimore continue to grow the major league product while improving the acquisition and development front. As far as compensation, I wouldn’t get too excited. A couple of low-minors lotto tickets, of which Toronto has a deep group to pick from, seems most likely. While ownership might not love the idea of letting Duquette out of his contract, you really don’t want to be known as the org that will hire you and then prevent you from leaving if a better job and better fit come along later.

Grosnick: A couple million, or a C prospect. If a front office guy wants to go, they’ll go – though Duquette is one of the guys deserving of a return of some sort.

Kory: I don’t have a name to give as Duquette’s replacement. But even if he were to leave, he has done the team a huge service by making the job of Orioles’ GM desirable again. I’d expect the better up-and-coming GMs in the game to listen more closely to Baltimore’s pitch now than they did three years ago when Duquette was hired. As for a fair return, Orioles fans likely won’t want to hear this, but a fair return would be not much at all. There have been few front office ‘trades’ over the years, but there was one recently when Boston ‘dealt’ Theo Epstein to the Cubs. Red Sox fans and Boston media members kept asking if the return would be Starlin Castro or some other hotshot young player. It turned out the return was a mediocre minor league reliever. In other words, almost nothing. There has been talk that Duquette should return one of Toronto’s top young players. The Orioles can certainly ask, but precedent says they won’t come close to getting anything worthwhile.

Pouliot: Compensation for baseball front office-types makes for a bizarre discussion. A quality GM should be worth at least a couple of very good young players. However, a quality GM is also probably worth 5-10 times as much as his annual salary. If they’re not valued fairly on the market, how are they going to be valued fairly in the odd circumstances that precede a trade?

In the event that the Orioles do need to move on from Duquette, I’d say the first call should be to the Braves to ask permission to interview John Coppolella. The Braves thought Coppolella wasn’t quite ready to step in as GM, which is why they hired John Hart to replace Frank Wren, but I’ve heard nothing but good things about him. Expectations are that he’ll get the job in Atlanta in a couple of years once Hart moves on, but maybe he’ll be disillusioned enough with the recent developments to be open to a move.

Stealing Mike Hazen away from the rival Red Sox would be another option. He was a finalist for the Padres job earlier this winter.

BSL: As is, Baltimore probably projects at around 85 wins. What do you think the Orioles need to achieve between now and Spring Training for you to believe they would be well positioned to repeat as East Division Champs?

Axisa: Find outfield help, figure out how to keep Machado healthy, and commit to giving Gausman 30+ starts. It’s time to stop jerking him around and just turn him loose. I do think the Orioles are still the best team in the AL East but the gap between them and everyone else — they won the division by 12 games, remember — is much, much smaller.



Collette: Get another outfielder. The AL East is as wide open as it has ever been (on paper) for 2015. Every team has as much of a chance to win it as rosters look now on December 31st as they do to finish in the basement. If a Scherzer or a Shields or a Hamels ends up in the northeast, that changes things, but as it stands now, it’s wide open.

Faleris: I think they are basically there, but really like the idea of pushing in on the trade front if it could land someone like Hamels. And again, I don’t think Baltimore necessarily has the horses to get Hamels without moving a Gausman or Machado (neither of whom I’d be willing to include). This should be a capable team that hangs in the thick of it and can look to improve as the season goes on. I am all for a proactive off-season approach, but given where the O’s are as we turn over into 2015, I think it’s more about filling smaller holes and seeing where you stand come June 1.



Grosnick: Logically? About five more wins. The AL East is no longer the AL Beast, but it’ll be competitive. It’s really, really hard to swing a five-win upgrade at one position, so maybe they could go for two 2-3 win upgrades? Say…James Shields and a trade for Daniel Murphy and Bobby Parnell for the infield and ‘pen?

Kory: Adding Max Scherzer would be a nice touch! That would push those win projections into the low 90s. But short of that, health for Matt Wieters, Chris Davis, and Manny Machado will go a long way towards improving those projections. I’m not in love with Baltimore’s starting pitching, but I wasn’t in love with it last season either and that worked out just fine. Adding another top starter would, I believe, be a huge improvement, but I wouldn’t expect that to happen.

Without making any big additions, the Orioles likely don’t project to repeat as AL East champs. But then they didn’t project as AL East champs last season either, so maybe Orioles fans shouldn’t worry so much about those projections. There isn’t a dominant team in the division now, so there’s no reason Baltimore, with health, a bit of luck, and maybe an addition or two at the deadline, can’t find itself atop the division again when the 2015 season comes to a close.

Pouliot: The Orioles are the AL East’s most well-rounded team, which is a blessing and a bit of a curse, since it’s harder to improve without any obvious holes (other than right field). But I think the Orioles have played it right so far this winter. Going to four years to keep either Cruz or Markakis would have been a mistake. It certainly would have been nice to have Miller back in the pen, but the relief corps remains a clear strength without him. Go sign Rasmus and take that team into spring training, leaving room in the budget to get a midseason upgrade or two when the need arises.

Then we’ll see if it comes together for any other AL East team like it did for the Red Sox in 2013. The Blue Jays, Red Sox and Yankees still have clear flaws, and while I think the Rays’ rotation will be plenty good, their offense could doom them to last place anyway. If 90 wins is good enough to take the AL East this year, then I like the Orioles’ chances. But I’d say Boston has a better chance of winning 95 (also a better chance of losing 85).