Eastern European countries are currently controlling the outbreak of coronavirus, reporting quite better results than those observed in the western and southern continents. Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and the UK are the most affected countries in the world after the US.

Poland and Romania are the hardest hit by Eastern European countries, but still far behind Western European countries. Bulgaria, Hungary, Czech Republic, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, and Slovakia are still far better without having a major outbreak of the virus.

It seems that Eastern Europe has avoided the setting of a large hearth, with many countries in the region already confident enough to begin repealing some of the emergency measures. Here are the prerequisites for their decisions:

Early and severe blockade

The World Health Organization (WHO) began encouraging countries to impose blockades in mid-February, citing the success of Chinese tactics in Wuhan – the city, the center of the primary outbreak, was isolated in January after the virus began to spread uncontrollable there.

In general, Eastern European countries were faster than Britain, Italy, or Spain. Poland reported its first case on March 4, and by the time it reported its first death on March 12, major public initiatives had ceased there. By March 25, schools, non-essential stores, and border crossings were closed and non-essential travel was banned.

In contrast, the United Kingdom reported its first coronavirus-infected case on January 29 and its first death on March 5. The government refrained from tightening its actions until March 17, when it banned major public gatherings. On March 25, the UK banned non-essential travel and closed schools, non-essential stores, and borders. Last week, the government said the blockade could remain for several months.

The Czech Republic has also taken swift action. The first case of infection there was reported on March 12. Since March 16, the Czech Republic has been in a complete blockade, with the first death reported on March 22. Czech Health Minister Adam Vojtech said on April 6 that the country could begin lifting restrictions gradually.

Slovakia has imposed one of the harshest blockades in Europe by banning international travel, all public events, and forcing newcomers to a 14-day quarantine. Only 13 people died in Slovakia due to a coronavirus as of Tuesday (April 21), making the country the European country with the lowest death rate per capita. In addition, wearing masks is mandatory in the country.

Slovakia also uses telecommunication data to track people’s movements. Other countries, such as the United Kingdom and Japan, face strong opposition from the public to such measures.

At the same time, Belarus continues to impose no form of blocking, although it reported on Monday the 51st death from coronavirus infection. In March, President Alexander Lukashenko told his fellow citizens that drinking vodka and sauna visits would prevent people from becoming infected.

The worst is yet to come

While it is clear that Eastern Europe has reacted faster to stop the spread of the virus than the West, health authorities in many of these countries have warned that they have not yet peaked.

Despite Belarus’ approach, the outbreak is expected to reach its peak in early May, Health Minister Vladimir Karanik said on Monday (April 20).

Hungary, for example, has reported just over 2,000 cases of infection, and the government of Victor Orban intends to lift the blockade on May 3. However, health experts in the country expect a new boom in the infected next month.

It now appears that Italy and Spain have crossed their peak with the help of blockades, while the UK is currently in the midst of the spread of the pathogen.

Romania also registered an increase in new infections, predicting the outbreak could reach a peak between April 22 and 26.

In Ukraine, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Monday that the epidemic is expected to reach its peak in early May.

The Slovak Ministry of Health predicts that the peak will pass by the end of June despite early and rigorous blocking.

Fewer tests, fewer confirmed cases

“We have one simple message to all parties: test, test, test. Test every doubtful case”, said the WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. However, many countries do not do this, either as a result of policies, logistical problems, or lack of equipment.

Hungary has performed 70% fewer tests than neighboring Austria. Both countries have almost the same population.

Romania, with a population of 19.5 million, has only completed 12,000 tests. The country’s health minister resigned on Friday, shortly after promising to test all residents of Bucharest, which has a population of 2 million people.

Poland, with a population of 38 million, has completed 224,355 tests. Georgia has passed 7,611 tests.

One reason why the number of infections in Germany is so high is because of the massive tests. The government tested more than 200,000 people per week in early March and identified 147,065 cases of Covid-19 coronavirus.

Similarly, one of the reasons Spain has detected 200,000 infections is that the country has managed one million tests.

Health authorities agree that blocking and social distance have saved many lives, and efforts by countries such as Poland should be commended.

Weekly deaths

However, the most important criteria continue to be the average weekly deaths per country, compared to the average in 5 years. It is noticeable that in Uk, for example, the weekly death rates in Week 14 and Week 15 are 60-80% higher than the previous year, or average in 5 years.

For Bulgaria, for example, the value is even lower. This shows that country is not yet affected by the spread of coronavirus. Either being because of the measures (which actually are 4th easiest in Europe) or something else, the country was much less affected by the pandemic.

Similar values can be seen in other Eastern European countries, compared to Western Europe.