Jan 23, 2019

On the afternoon of Jan. 21, after another round of the heavyweight fight of the year between Israel and Iran, the Israel Defense Forces' Twitter account released the following tweet: It shows a map of the Middle East, from the Persian Gulf on the east to the Mediterranean Sea on the west, under the headline, “Iran, you seem to be lost.” Four red arrows on the map point to Iran’s geographic location with the caption, “This is where you belong,” while another red arrow points to the Damascus region with the text, “Iran is here.”

This tweet went viral quickly. It reflects the clear Israeli victory in this round as well, portrays Israel’s main arguments about Iranian meddling in another state, and a healthy sense of humor as well. Nevertheless, Israel realized that this was only the first boxing round with many more to come. Over the last year, Iran absorbed numerous blows from its Israeli adversary, but it is far from abandoning ship. A high-level Israeli military source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “[Commander of the Revolutionary Guard] Qasem Soleimani evidently has a strong constitution. He keeps getting beaten up, but shows no signs of admitting defeat.”

The round of blows on Jan. 20 had been carefully prepared by both sides. The Iranians worked on it for many weeks, under the watchful eyes of Israeli intelligence. And Israel, for its part, meticulously prepared its response. According to a wave of publicity in the Arab media on Jan. 20, the strike was attributed to Israel. Israel evidently attacked Damascus’ international airport only a few days after the Russians announced their opposition to continued assaults on this very same airport. This happened on the afternoon of Jan. 20, during a wave of publicity in the Arab media, and then also during the night.

The Russians reacted to the attack only on the afternoon of Jan. 23. A Russian spokesperson said that Israel must stop attacking Syria. A Western diplomat, who spoke with Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, said that the reason the response arrived so late is simple: The Russians are embarrassed. They had assured Israel in the past that the Iranians will remain 80 to 100 kilometers from the Israeli border; and now, this has turned into an empty promise. On the afternoon of Jan. 20, the Revolutionary Guard launched a Ra’ad-type rocket toward Israel, from a base held by Soleimani forces near Damascus. And this is a region they are not supposed to be in at all.

It all began around 1 p.m. on Jan. 20. According to media reports, the Israeli air force carried out an unusual strike in the region of the Damascus international airport. Usually, Israel attacks at night. This time (which Israel has not taken responsibility for) it was carried out in the light of day. This probably was because of an immediate intelligence and operational opportunity that they didn’t want to pass up. The Syrians announced that the assault was halted and the missiles were intercepted. Evidently, their announcement has no basis in reality. On the other hand, an Iranian cargo plane belonging to the Revolutionary Guard, which was making its way from Tehran to Damascus at exactly that point in time, made a sharp U-turn and went home.