The current Iowa Senate Ratings

No state saw a more radical shift in 2016 than the state of Iowa. After being slightly more Democratic than the nation as a whole in 2008 and 2012 (Obama won by 10 and 6, respectively), the Hawkeye State became almost 6 points more Republican than the nation as a whole by voting for Trump by 9 points. This led many to believe, due to the demographics of the state, that Iowa may well become a Republican stronghold. This means that 2018 is a crucial year for Iowa Democrats, who have had two consecutive poor cycles, as they must show there are still signs of life. However, there are signs that the state is souring on Trump, with his approval rating being at 44% in February, around the time that the president was at 42ish% nationally, suggesting the state is back in true swing state territory. Furthermore, Democrats have done extremely well in special elections in Iowa since the 2016 election. That’s been the case nationwide, but in Iowa, the effect is really incredible. In the 6 special elections since the 2016 presidential election, Democrats have overperformed Hillary Clinton’s margins by 27.17%(!!!) and Obama’s 2012 margins by 7.33%. In the process, they managed to hang onto a Iowa House seat that Clinton lost 58-37, and did so by a convincing 54-44 margin back in August 2017.

So that leads us to the 2018 elections. Republicans took the majority in the State Senate in 2017 for the first time since 2007 by flipping 6 seats in 2016. That gives them a 29-20-1 majority, though really 30-20, since the 1 independent is in a deeply red seat and is not running for re-election. Unfortunately for Democrats, they have very little chance of flipping the State Senate since only 25 seats are up in 2018 and of those 25, they hold 14 of them. Among the 11 GOP-held seats, there are very few pickup opportunities. So in many ways, this map is a lot like the national 2018 Senate map: if Democrats can hang onto their seats, that alone is a huge victory and puts them in position to flip the chamber in 2020. So let’s look at the ratings chart and then dive right in:

Iowa Senate Ratings Table

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R 15 (D) 7 (R) 41 (R) 13 (R) 27 (D) 47 (R) 19 (R) 29 (D) 49 (D)

* = parentheses indicate which party currently holds the seat

Likely D: 15

15th District: Chaz Allen

Allen represents this western Polk County district that stretches into neighboring Jasper County including Newton. While it has parts of the outer Des Moines area that keeps it blue-ish, the Jasper County area moved sharply away from Clinton, going from Obama by 5 to Trump by 14. Allen won the district rather impressively in 2014, snaring an open seat even in the red wave year (Ernst won here by 9 that year). In 2018, he will be facing Tim Shay, a veteran who has worked in GOTV operations in past GOP campaigns. Shay doesn’t seem like the strongest opponent of all time, and he just filed, meaning he has $0 in the bank, while Allen has $24,000, though Allen burned a lot of cash earlier in the campaign and I’m not sure why. All things considered, due to his impressive 2014 win in a worse environment, this is a Likely D seat that could fall off the board if Shay proves to be a poor fundraiser.

Lean D: 7, 27, 29, 49

7th District: Open (Bertrand)

Ironically, on a post that will be filled with talk about Democrats defending seats, the first seat up in Lean D is their best pickup opportunity. The 7th district located in Sioux City has a PVI of D+1 and is being vacated by the incumbent Bertrand. Obama won here by 15 (57% of the vote), while Hillary lost it by only 5, showing it is clearly left of the state as a whole. Additionally, Democrats have Jackie Smith, a former Woodbury County Supervisor (helpful in a district that’s all Woodbury Co.), while the GOP has Steven Stokes, who appears to be a Some Dude. There is no information on him when you Google him and he had just $1,000 in the bank pre-primary (which was this past Tuesday). All things considered, this looks like an easy Democratic pickup.

27th District: Amanda Ragan

Ragan has represented this chunk of Northern Iowa that includes Mason City since 2006. Her district got considerably redder after the 2012 redistricting, yet she was able to win re-election by 12 points in 2014, showing her strength, as both Brandstad and Ernst were winning this district that year. In 2018 she will face businesswoman Shannon Latham, who as far as I can tell, is not related to former Iowa Congressman Tom Latham. Latham is running a fine campaign with quite a bit of money in the tank, yet it still looks puny compared to the massive war chest Ragan has. In 2018, it’s just hard to see a longtime Democratic incumbent lose anywhere, so we favor Ragan here.

29th District: Tod Bowman

SD-29 is a large chunk of eastern Iowa along the Illinois border, including Jackson County and Dubuque County (though the city of Dubuque is not part of it) and it saw one of the largest swings of anywhere, going from Obama by 5 to Trump by 21. Democratic incumbent Tod Bowman has represented it since 2010, when he won the old version of the seat when it was open (in 2010 of all years(!)). In 2014, he defended it by 9 points, showing he is no pushover. He will be facing Eastern Iowa Tourism Director Carrie Koelker, who is doing okay fundraising-wise, but has a long way to go to catch up to Bowman’s war chest. These facts make Bowman a favorite to win another term in the Iowa Senate, and land this seat in Lean D.

49th District: Rita Hart

SD-49 consists of Clinton County and parts of outer Scott County in Eastern Iowa and it went from Obama by 17 (!) to Trump by 10. Rita Hart first won the district in 2012 by riding Obama’s coattails, but then re-affirmed herself in 2014 by winning a narrow race in the poor conditions for Democrats. In 2018 she’s facing President of the Valley Community School District Chris Cournoyer, who is running a very credible campaign, raising quite a bit of money. However, Hart still leads in the fundraising total and so I consider her a favorite to win re-election, hence Lean D.

Tossup: 41, 47

41st District: Open (Chelgren)

One of the best Democratic pickup opportunities is here in the 41st district, located in southwestern Iowa including Ottumwa. It went from Obama by 8 to Trump by 19, so who the heck knows where it actually is politically. With a retiring incumbent, the open seat presents Dems with a great pickup opportunity. The Democratic nominee is Mary Stewart, a community college person, while the Republican nominee is Marilynn Miller-Meeks, who has run for Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District three times and has lost to Dave Loebsack (D) every time. Both candidates are rather new into the field and so neither has much in the bank, so we’re gonna wait and see on fundraising, but an R+4 PVI district that Obama won decisively is worth making a run at for Democrats.

47th District: Roby Smith

Roby Smith is far and away the most endangered incumbent Republican in the chamber. He represents an R+1 district which is the only GOP-held district that both Obama and Clinton won (HRC won 2 suburban Des Moines districts that Obama didn’t win but those aren’t up this year), located in Bettendorf and part of Davenport in the Quad Cities area. Smith has served since 2011, winning re-election in 2014 by a 56-44 margin. With the 2018 national environment looking totally different than 2014, Smith is going to be in a lot of trouble, though he has a ton of cash in the bank. He will be facing Deere project manager Marie Gleason, who is new to the race so we again have to wait and see on fundraising, but she seems legitimate enough to beat Smith. While he is well funded, no amount of money may be enough to save Smith in a district that is getting bluer.

Lean R: 13, 19

13th District: Julian Garrett

SD-13 is, to put it kindly, a tough district for Dems. Located south of Des Moines in Madison and Warren Counties, it supported Romney by 4 and Trump by 20. The incumbent Julian Garrett won easily in 2014, though he got the seat in a 2013 special election that was close-ish. It’s only really on the radar because retired teacher/businesswoman Vicky Brenner is running a really good campaign for Democrats, already with over $10,000 more in the bank than the incumbent Garrett, despite not being in the race for that long. It’s still a longshot, but with a credible candidate, it’s worth putting on the radar.

19th District: Jack Whitver

This district is located in northern Polk County, including Ankeny, one of America’s fastest growing cities. With an R+5 PVI, it basically stayed the same in 2016, though relative to the state as a whole, that was a huge shift towards Democrats, which is what makes it intriguing. The incumbent Whitver was first elected in 2010 and was not even challenged by Democrats in 2014 and he’s got a large war-chest that will make him tough to beat. However, the district fundamentals do suggest an opening for Dems, and gun control activist mother Amber Gustafson has $28,000 in the war-chest which will give her a shot to compete, but Whitver is still a clear favorite.

The Path to a Democratic Majority

Unlike in Nevada, where there is literally 0% chance of a chamber flip, this one is just highly unlikely. While Democrats are defending some Trumpy seats, the strength of their incumbents and a good national environment makes it seem likely that they will win another term . However, picking up 5 seats is quite a steep ask for Democrats to do, which is the biggest downside to the disastrous 2016 cycle. Only needing to pickup 2 or 3 is maybe doable, but 5 requires winning both tossup seats and both Lean R seats. It’s also worth noting that picking up those 5 doesn’t even give Democrats the majority if Democratic Governor Fred Hubbell (and whoever his Lt. Gov. running mate will be) doesn’t win the November election. However, like in Michigan, it seems likely that big Dem gains in the chamber would be simultaneously paired with a strong gubernatorial showing, where the race figures to be quite close.

The Bottom Line

All in all, Democrats look like they will make gains in the chamber, just probably not enough to flip the chamber . Gaining 2 or 3 seats should be considered a victory for the party, given the tough map, and 2020 will provide a much better opportunity to flip the chamber. On that map, Democrats hold just 6 of the 25 seats that are up, and there are 12 GOP-held seats with PVI’s of R+6 or less. By comparison, this map has just 4 of those seats. If Democrats can narrow the GOP majority and win the governorship in 2018, they can enter 2020 with needing to only flip 2 or 3 seats out of a long list of targets to re-take the chamber. So on the bottom line, we rate the chamber Likely R .

Chamber Rating: Likely R

Estimate if election were held today: D+1 to D+3