<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/in-kochi_4.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/in-kochi_4.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273 400w, https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/in-kochi_4.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551 800w" > Waves at Fort Kochi on Sunday evening after the arrival of Southwest Monsoon on Saturday. (Jipson Sikhera / BCCL, Kochi)

This story was updated on Monday, June 10, 03:30 pm.

The monsoon has crossed Kochi and is gradually moving northwards, bringing more rain along the southwest coast state of India. As India welcomes the relief from intense summer heat, murmurs of a cyclone in the Arabian Sea have begun. A low-pressure area in the region that formed last week, intensified into a deep depression on Monday morning and is located around 760 km from Mumbai.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday forecast that the deep depression is likely to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm tonight and further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm by Wednesday morning. Once the system gains enough strength and intensifies into a cyclone, it will be named Cyclone Vayu—a name given by India.

The Weather Channel's Met team predicts that the depression could progress generally northward while gradually intensifying. Waves of more than 6-metre height are forecast along coastal Kerala, Karnataka, and Maharashtra on Tuesday. The storm is expected to be located at or near coastal Gujarat by Thursday afternoon.

Impact on monsoon rainfall

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/in-ker_1.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/in-ker_1.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273 400w, https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/in-ker_1.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551 800w" > Heavy rainfall in Kochi causes waterlogging at Park Avenue Road on Sunday evening. (Jipson Sikhera / BCCL, Kochi)

Amid fears of the tropical system over the Arabian Sea stalling the movement of monsoon, meteorologists believe that this system may not have any major impact on monsoon rains. According to the TWC Met team, the track of the cyclone may allow the continued flow of moist westerly winds into the western coastal regions. There is even a good possibility that this system may enhance precipitation in the western coastal regions including Mumbai. In addition, Vayu may help in faster northward propagation of the monsoon.

IMD has issues orange warning (indicating possibility of heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places) to coastal Karnataka for Monday. Similar warning is issued to Kerala for Wednesday and Saurashtra and Kutch for Thursday.

The cyclone season in the Indian Ocean usually starts in April and ends in December. In between this period, the maximum number of cyclones is observed from April to June and September to December. The extremely severe cyclonic storm Fani, which swept Odisha and southern Bengal region during the first week of May, was the first of this season. The storm killed 64 people while causing a massive loss of over ₹9000 crores in Odisha alone.

Forecast position and intensity

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/in-vayu.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/in-vayu.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273 400w, https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/in-vayu.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551 800w" > Forecast position of Cyclone Vayu as per different models as on Thursday, June 13, 3:30 pm IST. (TWC Met Team)

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the wind intensity of the depression was 45-55 kmph as of Monday morning. The speed is likely to touch 65 kmph (Cyclonic Storm intensity) by Tuesday morning. By Tuesday morning, the cyclone is expected to be around 350 km southwest of Panaji. Beyond Tuesday, models are consistent on the northward trajectory of the storm. It is expected to be on or near coastal Gujarat on Thursday afternoon.

The heaviest rainfall until 5:30 am Friday will be along coastal Kerala and Karnataka, with accumulation of up to 250 mm locally. The TWC Met team warns that the possibility of local flooding is not ruled out. Thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds are very likely across coastal areas in south, west, and north India this week.

IMD predicts that strong winds of 40-50 kmph are very likely to prevail in Kerala, Karnataka and south Maharashtra coasts on Tuesday. Further, as the storm moves north, wind speed is very likely to increase gradually to 50-60 kmph Maharashtra coasts on Wednesday and Thursday. The storm is likely to intensify further by Thursday, with wind speeds of 65-75 kmph over Gujarat coasts.

Sea conditions are very likely to be rough and the fishermen are advised not to venture into sea in these areas during the same period.

Stay tuned to The Weather Channel for constant updates on the tropical system!

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