SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Unless you work in the oil, gas or related mining industries, the job market is unlikely to look brighter in the fourth quarter, and even retailers are glum about hiring for the upcoming holiday season, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.

The Milwaukee firm's quarterly survey of hiring plans found that a net 9% of firms expect to hire in the fourth quarter, down from 12% in the previous quarter, and 18% for the fourth quarter a year ago. This fourth quarter outlook is the tenth consecutive quarter of declining employer sentiment in the survey -- the longest such retreat in more than 20 years.

Manpower's seasonally adjusted net-employment numbers, based on a survey of 14,000 U.S. companies, measure the percentage of firms planning to hire minus those intending layoffs. Manpower doesn't measure the number of jobs. The survey's margin of error is +/- 0.8%.

Among retailers, even the upcoming holiday season doesn't seem to offer much hope: Just 8% of employers in wholesale and retail trade expect to hire in the upcoming fourth quarter, the lowest figure for that sector in 17 years, said Jonas Prising, president of Manpower North America. That category includes department stores, gas stations, restaurants, discount retailers, computer stores and wholesalers, among others.

The industry's "hiring intentions are the lowest we've seen in the last 17 years. That tells you something about what they feel about end-of-year shopping sprees," Prising said. The sector "hasn't been this pessimistic for a long time."

Retailers aren't alone in their pessimism. Overall, this is the tenth consecutive quarter of declines in employers' hiring plans, the longest such retreat since 1986, Prising said.

"The decline has been gradual and is looking very, very different from what we saw in 2000, 2001," Prising said. "That was much shorter and sharper."

See related story on recent jobs data.

If it ensues that employers' outlook for the first quarter of 2009 is equally grim, that would mean a new record for the Manpower survey. "The Employment Outlook Survey in the last 25 years [has not seen] more than 10 consecutive quarters of seasonally-adjusted decline," Prising said. The survey has been conducted for about 40 years but the seasonally adjusted measurement is about 25 years old, Prising said.

Bright spot

One sector is doing well, however: Mining, which the Manpower survey describes as any company involved in extracting resources, including metal and coal mining companies, petroleum and natural gas extraction, stone, sand and gravel quarries, as well as related positions in those industries, such as engineering.

Twenty-six percent of companies in the mining industry expect to hire in the fourth quarter, up from 24% in the third quarter and 21% a year ago.

But other industries are seeing significant drops in hiring expectations, particularly when compared to the fourth quarter a year ago:

Net employment outlook, seasonally adjusted, by industry Fourth Quarter 2008 Third Quarter 2008 Fourth Quarter 2007 Construction 2% 2% 15% Education 10% 10% 16% Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 5% 7% 15% Manufacturing - Durables 9% 12% 18% Manufacturing - Nondurables 6% 10% 17% Mining 26% 24% 21% Public Administration 8% 10% 21% Services 14% 19% 22% Transportation & Public Utilities 10% 14% 13% Wholesale & Retail Trade 8% 10% 17%

Source: Manpower

By the map

There is slight improvement in hiring plans in the West, with 11% of employers planning to hire in the upcoming quarter, compared with 8% in the previous quarter. Still, that's down from 24% a year ago.

In the Northeast, 11% of employers plan to hire, compared with 13% in the previous quarter and 14% a year ago.

In the South, 9% of employers plan to hire, down from 14% in the third quarter and 18% a year ago.

In the Midwest, 8% of employers plan to hire, down from 12% in the third quarter and 17% a year ago.

Manpower defines the Midwest region as Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin.

The West is Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.

The Northeast is Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont.

The South is Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.