AT THE beginning of the 2016 election cycle, Republican strategists had little reason to question whether the 38 electoral college votes in Texas—the biggest red state in America—would eventually go to their party’s nominee. The last Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state in a general election was Jimmy Carter, in 1976; four years ago Mitt Romney won the state by a 12-point margin. It has been more than 20 years since Texas voters elected a Democrat to any major state office, and the 2014 mid-term elections offered no evidence that the Republican Party's hegemonic hold on power is weakening. Some Democrats had convinced themselves that shifting demographics meant it had to be, only to be cruelly disappointed. Republicans once again won all the major state-wide contests-by roughly 20 points, rather than the usual 10 or 12.

So many were surprised on September 6th when an online survey by the Washington Post showed Hillary Clinton ahead in the state, leading Donald Trump by one point.

The notion that Democrats have a chance at winning the state is less absurd than it might appear. It would be wrong to dismiss the results of recent elections, but it would be equally foolish to ignore the idiosyncrasies of the present campaigns. The new poll is not the first to suggest the possibility of a big surprise in Texas: last month, a survey by Public Policy Polling found Clinton trailing Trump by a mere six points. In the 2016 presidential election, it would appear, the question is not whether Democrats can turn Texas blue; it is whether Donald Trump will do so.

Looked at from that perspective it is easy to see why Democrats may now have an unanticipated opening in the state. Mr Trump has never been hugely popular with the state’s Republican leaders or voters. He received no significant endorsements prior to the Texas primary, in March, which he lost, by a 17-point margin, to the state’s junior senator, Ted Cruz. Since then, most Texas Republicans seem to have stoically united behind their party’s presidential nominee; few have declined to do so as explicitly as Mr Cruz did at the Republican National Convention in July. But it is not surprising that there are a sizeable number of Texas Republican voters who have lingering objections to Mr Trump’s bid for the presidency. Polling has found him underperforming in a number of red states, and it is natural that Texas should be among them. The state, which is famous for favouring Republicans, has many deeply conservative voters. On key issues like trade and immigration, Mr Trump is starkly at odds with state tradition.

Few of Mr Trump’s Texan supporters, meanwhile, seem to be applying themselves to the task of rallying the troops with much enthusiasm. “It’s a bitter pill to swallow, you know?” said George P. Bush, the Texas Land Commissioner, during a meeting of conservative activists last month; all the same, he continued, one must endeavour to stop Mrs Clinton.

The Hispanic vote offers a particularly stark illustration of the difficulties faced by Republicans in Texas in 2016. In the past, Republicans in the state have not lost Hispanic voters by blistering margins. That is in part because they have tended to avoid making sweeping indictments of Mexicans and Mexican-Americans, or supporting presidential candidates who peddle such views. The opportunity the Republican Party has offered Democrats this year is historic. There is no way of telling whether they will be able to take it. But it is increasingly hard to insist that it would be futile for them to try.