ANN ARBOR, MI – Aggressive social distancing could cause the number of COVID-19 patients in Michigan hospitals to peak and begin to decline in May, Michigan Medicine clinicians project.

New forecasting models suggest strong mitigation efforts could bring the projected number of patients at University of Michigan hospitals on May 4 down by as much as 65%, compared to the projected number if less social distancing were practiced, according to Vikas Parekh, an associate chief clinical officer for Michigan Medicine. Though the modeling was made for University of Michigan hospitals, the general reduction could be applied to others in the state, Parekh said in a video news conference.

“This impact is striking,” Parekh said. “It's critical that our community maintains a high level of social distancing to help our healthcare community continue to care for COVID-19 patients and to be able to continue to provide the highest level of care possible.”

Clinicians project that in a worst-case scenario, the peak number of coronavirus patients at UM hospitals could be as high as 5,860 patients on May 4.

With aggressive social distancing, however, the hospitals could have 2,000 COVID-19 patients on that date, before peaking on May 16, at 3,179 patients.

Michigan Medicine estimates aggressive social distancing could decline the hospital system's number of COVID-19 patients by early May, according to models released on Tuesday, March 31. (Graphic courtesy of Michigan Medicine)

Michigan Medicine’s model shows that no social distancing would lead to COVID-19 cases doubling every three days. However, if even 50% of the population limits contact with others, the doubling time slows to more than a week, according to the hospital system’s models.

Aggressive social distancing is defined as staying away from anyone else outside your immediate family and limiting going out to essential errands only, such as grocery shopping or picking up prescriptions. Outside exercise is OK, so long as individuals remain at least six feet apart from each other, clinicians say.

“The goal is to have contact with the fewest possible individuals outside of your household, therefore reducing the risk of transmission of coronavirus,” Parekh said.

Michigan Medicine hospitals have a capacity of 1,000 beds, according to a news release. Leaders say plans to accommodate an upcoming surge include “redeployment of staff, converting other space in hospitals for patient care or converting nearby university dormitories.”

In the hospital system’s worst-case scenario model, adult Michigan Medicine hospitals would exceed capacity on April 10. Under the aggressive social distancing model, the hospitals could exceed capacity on April 21.

Officials also said the hospital system may establish a field hospital of at least 500 beds at the indoor track at the Stephen M. Ross Athletic Campus South Complex on State Street, though a final decision has not been made.

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