How will Penn State do at NCAAs this year? The team race may hinge on how healthy Jason Nolf is by mid-March, because the projected number of points the Nittany Lions will earn will drastically change with and without Nolf.

All of Happy Valley knew something was up when it saw the stone set in Nolf's eyes during his match at Rutgers this past Sunday. Whether by sleight of hand or twist of fate, something had happened to the knee of the reigning 157-pound national champion, and it wasn't good.

The prognosis came back better than PSU fans' worst fears, but they will still have to wait on a bed of nails with an equally proverbial thorn twisting in their side until they find out for sure if Nolf will wrestle in Cleveland.

Until then, Penn State won't know if it will have to live with or without Nolf in the lineup. In the meantime, we'll crunch the numbers to find out what we can expect in March.

WITH OR WITHOUT NOLF

According the simulation we've run through our Wrestling Compubot 5000 (TM), the NCAA championship will come down to the following odds, with a healthy Jason Nolf.









As the rankings stand today, it's a statistical dead heat between Ohio State and Penn State for our simulated championship. Below is a table of the top five NCAA teams' odds to win the 2018 title and the expected number of points scored, according to SimuBot WrestleTron 3000 (TM).





TEAM PCT TO WIN AVG SCORE Penn State 50.50% 120 Ohio State 49.00% 120 Iowa 0.20% 76 NC State 0.10% 68 Missouri 0.10% 67





But without Nolf, it's much more likely that that the Nittany Lions will give themselves away at the tournament. Meanwhile, Ohio State will be eager to take advantage and claim its second title in four years.

Below are the odds of winning for the top seven teams (the team race also opens up a bit with Nolf not competing).





Below are the percentages and expected team scores, according to CalcuBot WrestleMatic (TM).





TEAM PCT TO WIN AVG SCORE Ohio State 78.90% 122 Penn State 17.80% 100 Iowa 2.10% 81 Missouri 0.50% 70 NC State 0.50% 70 Michigan 0.10% 60 OK State 0.10% 58





The odds may be in the Buckeyes' favor without Nolf competing, but it still won't be easy. Ohio State also has to stay healthy and perform up to seed, and nothing is for certain in the grueling three-day final tournament.

To get a better sense of how Nolf's absence might affect the rest of the field, we can use the same WrestleTron CyberSimulator 4000 (TM) to see how the top five teams will finish, first with Nolf:





And now without Nolf:





The wrestling season is a long slog for every team, but through the storm they all reach the shore. All wrestling fans can agree that the NCAA tournament is better with Nolf than without him, so we join them in wishing him a speedy recovery. We hope U2 share the same opinion.