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There was no starting gun, but the federal election has begun. Between now and October, there will be another budget, a high-profile trial, a summer of touring and glad-handing, and five party leaders fighting for their political lives.

The prospects for an early election are slim. The prime minister is comfortable governing. If this governing is unhindered by the opposition, it is also free of any pretence for forcing an early election. Further, the prime minister has likely reasoned that he is better going into the next election with the budget balanced (or near balance) and with a new suite of tax cuts than he is with the mere promise of these things.

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There is reason for this confidence. Stephen Harper’s polling numbers have been slowly but steadily rising. According to Three-Hundred Eight, the PM has nearly pulled even with Trudeau’s Liberals. If this seems unremarkable, consider that the gap between these parties reached 12 points at the end of the summer. This increase is neither ephemeral or happenstance. IPSOS, who have polled most extensively and consistently, show that Harper’s comeback occurred before the attacks in Ottawa, though these surely increased voters’ estimation. Instead, questions about alternatives have steadily (if slowly) accumulated, and Harper worked through substantial challenges.