There are now 46 days until Brexit and there is no sign of parliament approving the prime minister’s exit agreement with the European Union. We are now in the last chance saloon for parliament to stop a no-deal Brexit. Why?

If the withdrawal agreement and political declaration on the future trading relationship – which the PM has finalised with the EU – is not approved by parliament, the only way to stop the UK leaving without a deal is either: to revoke the Article 50 letter sent by the PM to the EU notifying them of our intention to leave; or to extend the two-year Article 50 process that expires on 29 March, which is possible with the unanimous agreement of all other EU member states. There is not sufficient support in the House of Commons for the former but there may be for the latter.

On the EU side, the contacts I speak to – both at the EU Commission and on the EU Council – are clear the bloc would entertain a short extension up until the end of June for a specific purpose, like a “people’s vote” or to allow more time for the Commons to reach a consensus on a way forward. On the UK side, it is clear that we will not be practically ready to leave on 29 March even if the Commons eventually were to back the PM’s deal. We have several major pieces of primary legislation and hundreds of pieces of secondary legislation to process and not enough time. Yet, there is no guarantee the PM will seek this extension before it is too late, if at all.

For any extension to be granted, the request will have to be agreed by EU leaders when the EU Council meets on 21 March. The agenda for that summit is set during a two week preparatory period and the UK will have to ask for the request to be put on the agenda in advance, so by 7 March in four weeks’ time. It follows that the Commons would have to pass the necessary legislation to force the PM’s hand and legally require the government to request an extension to stop no deal by 7 March. This legislation would need to pass both houses in parliament and come into force by that date at the latest.

Those of us working on a cross-party basis in the Commons to ensure an extension is sought, to stop the country falling off the cliff, estimate we would need around two weeks to get the legislation through. Thus it would need to start its passage through parliament by the start of next week.

Britain Before Brexit: Northwest England Show all 12 1 /12 Britain Before Brexit: Northwest England Britain Before Brexit: Northwest England Liverpool Subverting the message of peace preached by one of the city’s favourite sons. War continues and is never really over Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northwest England Bolton A boarded-up shop front painted with Friday night vomit. Regurgitated food and liquid and bile adorn British weekend streets. It’s the sign of a body saving itself from self-poisoning Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northwest England Preston The bus station is a grade II-listed building. There are wonderful frames, with leading lines, repetitions of numbers and angles, soft light, hanging clocks. People wait to be taken elsewhere Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northwest England Carlisle The first thing I see in the city is a drunk man lying on the floor of the train station. He can’t walk, is completely unresponsive, and has a blank, vacant expression on his face, as if he’d just had his memory erased Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northwest England Liverpool Dismantling the tree of love, one heart at a time, until it’s bare and loveless and wintry. The city has made love one of its symbols since the Beatles told the world it’s all you need. I wonder what will become of these plastic hearts Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northwest England Blackburn Making a joint with one arm under angels, the other in a sling. I don’t stick around to find out how he rolls it, singlehandedly or otherwise Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northwest England Preston People browse the outdoor market, tempted into sales. I’m there to look at them, and in this scene they mix with boxes of music in working order, a Disney wink, and a limp Union Jack Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northwest England Liverpool I’m impressed how humans are dwarfed by human-made structures in the urban environment. The building is gigantic, geometrically solid and powerfully symmetrical, while the tiny man slouches, humanly imperfect and asymmetrical Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northwest England Blackburn The play on words for this new development is a footer to the town’s skyline, along which run the grey heights of a multi-storey carpark, Chapel Street Church spire, and the faint tops of houses Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northwest England Carlisle I’m led into the train station by a man on his mobility scooter. I photograph him and his sign, then take the train to Preston. I thought it was strange how someone could be so proud of a city, with all its details and complexities Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northwest England Bolton It’s one of the sickly contradictions of advertising: you can save money by spending it. Here it is presented as the headline of Bolton market, put so simply, yet still so complicated Richard Morgan/The Independent Britain Before Brexit: Northwest England Liverpool When people stop to speak to rough sleepers it always looks so unbalanced. The different social positions of the interaction are exaggerated by the visual dimensions, with passer-by almost always standing above, leaning over, talking down Richard Morgan/The Independent

Labour is going to try to force ministers to hold a final “meaningful vote” on the PM’s deal by 26 February but, given the above, that will be too late. Not enough Tories would support such moves by the Labour frontbench in any event (they might if it came from the backbenches). That is where the votes this week come in – they are crucial in ensuring sufficient time is allotted in the parliamentary timetable for legislation stopping no deal to pass, regardless of the wishes of ministers, before the March EU Council.

As things stand, the PM is due to give a statement to the Commons on Wednesday asking for more time to get legally binding changes to her deal in relation to the Irish backstop, to stop there being a hard Irish border. We will vote on this on Thursday and will be able pass amendments to her motion to ensure time is provided for the Commons to do what is necessary to force a request for an extension to be made, if we can assemble a majority.

The last time we sought to pass a measure for this purpose was when Yvette Cooper’s amendment was voted on last month. All the opposition parties whipped their MPs to vote for it, but 25 Labour MPs failed to support Yvette’s amendment – quite extraordinary given the economic damage a no-deal Brexit would do to all communities. Seventeen Conservative MPs also rebelled but that was not enough to offset the Labour rebellion.

So in order to get a cross-party amendment through which paves the way for parliament to stop the government running down the clock – which risks the UK falling off the cliff without a deal – we must both reduce the Labour rebellion and increase the Conservative one. If the Labour rebels can be persuaded this is not a move to delay Brexit indefinitely, their numbers may dwindle. On the Tory side, I have spoken to several ministers who are considering their positions and are now contemplating resigning from government to vote for such a measure which would increase their numbers. On the one hand, when I speak to these ministers, they bemoan their lack of influence on the PM and the way she bows to pressure from the right-wing ERG; on the other hand they claim to have more influence within government than on the backbenches. A complete contradiction.

On the basis of the evidence, these “sensible” ministers’ influence has been minimal, otherwise government policy would have shifted weeks ago. Yesterday, Heidi Allen, the Conservative MP for South Cambridgeshire, tweeted the following: “It is completely irresponsible to keep delaying, sensible ministers who are worried, MUST step up this week. Parliament can find a way forward & end the no deal risk if given the opportunity, but we backbenchers can’t do it w’out their support. They know who they are. Country 1st.” She is spot on. If they want to influence the outcome of Brexit, now is the “sensible” time to resign and vote accordingly, otherwise it will be too late. There is a huge amount at stake here. History will not forgive those who act as bystanders.

Time for TMOs in football?

So, I watched England thrash France in the rugby yesterday, hot on the heels of the victory against Ireland last week, and very pleasurable it was too! I’m more of a football man myself though I like watching the odd game of rugby (with a Guinness in hand) when I can but I don’t profess to be an expert in either. I can’t remember when they were introduced but it seems to me that the television match official (TMO) – who the referee can ask to study the footage of the game to help them make decisions – during top class rugby matches has been a great addition to the game. And the fact you can hear the interactions between the ref and the players – they carry body-worn cameras – surely must act as an incentive for the players to behave in the right way on the field, setting a good example particularly to younger people watching. If millions can hear you swearing at and being unreasonable to the ref, you will think twice about it. It did make me think – why not use TMOs and broadcast the referee/player interactions in top flight footie matches too?