One of four potential scenarios that Port Metro Vancouver planners are contemplating has Vancouver evolving by 2030 into a “lifestyle oasis” for rich people — spelling bad news for the port.

The crystal-ball gazing, undertaken by some 100 port stakeholders earlier this year, is part of a long-term planning process the port initiated in 2010.

At that time, four possible scenarios were outlined, all of which were updated in the latest planning exercise, with help from academics and futurists.

A business as complex as a port, after all, must prepare itself to confront shifts in climate change targets, global trade patterns, and even public attitudes about local industrial land use.

The goal, explains the port’s website, is “to reach agreement on what the port may look like over the next 20, 30 and even 40 years.”

While the lifestyle oasis scenario — which the port refers to as “Local Fortress” — is not deemed most likely to materialize, it does not seem all that far-fetched.

It envisions a Lower Mainland with expensive homes and wealthy residents, relying on an economy fuelled by the services sector, tourism and local agriculture.

In such circumstances, the port foresees slower growth, with residents focused on their personal well being, the community and a healthy environment.

A Deloitte report on the planning event, titled Port 2050 Scenarios Update, adds further detail on this Local Fortress scenario:

“The wealthiest segments of the (global) population look for safe places to store and preserve their capital. Vancouver, with its natural beauty and location on the Pacific Rim, is seen as an attractive real-estate market and a place to retire and enjoy the lifestyle.”

Foreign buyers would continue inflating property prices and creating more competition for the limited industrial land around Burrard Inlet that might be needed for new port infrastructure.

Export commodities like coal would get redirected to alternative ports.

First Nations would assert land rights, vetoing further industrial development, while community opposition would nix both infrastructure projects and industrial development.

Meanwhile, young people would move to the suburbs for more affordable homes, creating a labour shortage.

Local manufacturing would become the priority and, by 2040, “the region has become a lifestyle bubble for many, a place to retire and retreat.

“For those who can afford it, the Lower Mainland is still a pleasant place to live and visit.”

All this, of course, would spell trouble for the port, which needs industrial space and a supportive community tolerant of port-related inconveniences like noise and congestion.

While the Local Fortress scenario is viewed by the port as “plausible,” a combination of two other, less-problematic scenarios are considered more relevant to Port Metro Vancouver’s future.

One is identified on the port’s website as “The Great Transition,” whereby growth increasingly would pay heed to the environment and human well-being in addition to the economy.

This scenario foresees a coexistence of carbon fuels and alternative energy approaches.

The other is labelled “The Rising Tide,” predicated on a world of increased global competition for natural resources, climate instability and a growing gap between rich and poor. Such conditions would make B.C. stand out as “a safe bet in a risky world and a reliable source for much needed resources.”

A fourth, once again less-likely scenario is referred to as “Missed the Boat”. It has the Pacific Gateway forfeiting business opportunities and losing competitiveness due to a lack of community support and poor planning among industry, government and Vancouverites. Trade volumes in this scenario would shift to East Coast ports.

The Deloitte report notes that the objective of the port’s extensive forecasting exercise is to rehearse “for multiple futures (which) strengthens an organization’s ability to recognize, adapt to and take advantage of changes in the industry over time.”

If nothing else, the website offerings and Deloitte report make the observer realize how precarious Port Metro Vancouver’s operations really are in a fast-changing and highly tempestuous world.

byaffe@vancouversun.com

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