One of the most consistently entertaining tools to come out of the 2016 election so far is the FiveThirtyEight election forecasting map. If you haven't become deeply involved with it yet, head over there and click around. Don't worry, I'll wait.

Welcome back! The map is actually a variety of different maps and forecasts. You can choose to see the "polls-plus" forecast, which is "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8."

You can also do "polls-only" and see just what the straight polls predict. And then, for real up-to-the-minute information--what feels like the pulse of the nation, if you want to get dramatic--you can check out the "now-cast," which is "who would win in an election today."

Though Hillary Clinton led in the now-cast poll since it began June 8, after the Republican National Convention, from July 25 to July 29, Donald Trump jumped ahead. But now, Clinton has her most commanding lead yet. Today, now-cast predicts that there is a 92 percent chance Clinton would win the general election if it were held today.

Trump has had a difficult week. It's even been reported that top Republican operatives are trying to figure out what would happen if he dropped out of the race.

Nate Silver, the editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, says that "the now-cast is very aggressive."

"It's much more confident than polls-plus or polls-only," Silver says of the model. "It weights recent polls more heavily and is more aggressive in calculating a trend line."

If the now-cast is too aggressive for you, the polls-plus forecast gives Clinton a 74.2 percent chance of winning the election to Trump's 25.8 percent and the polls-only puts her at 79.8 percent to Trump's 20.2 percent.

Trump's campaign announced Thursday that Trump would be coming to Portland this month.

"Mr. Trump is taking Oregon very seriously," says Jacob Daniels, the Trump campaign's State Director of Oregon. "He believes he can win here."

The now-cast put Trump's chances of winning Oregon at 2.9 percent. Both of the other forecasts put his chances of winning Oregon at between 9 and 10 percent.

-- Lizzy Acker

503-221-8052

lacker@oregonian.com, @lizzzyacker