If there was ever any doubt that 2018 was a bear market’s year for crypto, the average daily change should certainly clear those doubts.

In 2018, it turns out that Bitcoin has experienced a negative average daily value change of –0.33%, which is the lowest in 9 years of value recording and the only second year for a negative change along with 2014 (-0.25%).

Bitcoin average daily value change:

2010: +0.82%

2011: +0.76%

2012: +0.26%

2013: +1.11%

2014: -0.25%

2015: +0.09%

2016: +0.22%

2017: +0.78%

2018: -0.33%

What’s also interesting to observe is the daily value change of the years before 2014 and 2018. We’ve discussed in the past how the 2018 bear market shows a lot of resemblance to the chart of 2014.

These figures show that 2013 (+1.11%) and 2017 (+0.78%) both had high daily average changes in Bitcoin value, what also worth mention is the consolidation market of 2012 (0.26%) and 2016 (0.22%). This makes sense when you observe the Bitcoin price charts in each of those bullish years:

2013: +1.11% | 2014: -0.25%

2017: +0.78% | 2018: -0.33%

Remember that an asset which declined by 0.33%, needs around 0.5% to return to its initial price (for example if Bitcoin worth $1000 and lost 33% to $666.67 then it needs to raise by 50% now to raise back to $1000).

Assumptions for 2019

If the pattern for average daily change is any indication for future trends, we can expect 2019 to have a daily value change of slightly under +0.1% (recovery or consolidation year). This assumption is supported by the fact that Bitcoin is yet to experience two years in a row where the price at the end of the year was lower than the previous year:

2010 EOY (end of the year) price: $0.29

2011 EOY price: $4.38 (Mid-year price: $29.60)

2012 EOY price: $13.41

2013 EOY price: $817.12

2014 EOY price: $302

2015 EOY price: $429.78

2016 EOY price: $958.24

2017 EOY price: $15,247

2018 EOY price: $3,847.49

2019 EOY price: ?

Source: Coinmarketcap.com

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