The best Lib Dem result for a decade A net gain of 75 seats, just two fewer than Labour, and the largest net gains for the party since 2004. A net gain of four councils – better than either Labour (no net gain) or the Conservatives (net loss of two) – and the largest net gain of councils since 2003. Even the defeat of Mr Gladstone was good news. Progress this year also has set up very plausible chances of gaining control of councils such as Winchester, St Albans and Hull in future years. Time to break out the bunting then? In many respects, yes. As I wrote before these elections: When it comes to seats, the starting point is to bear in mind that the party has gained seats only once in the last nine years (stretching back to include pre-coalition contests too, note – the problem with the party’s slipping strength pre-dates coalition). Simply being up this year would be a good break in that trend. And yes, the party did make a net gain of seats, far more than predicted. Not just a good break, a very good break. All the more so as this year’s elections are, perhaps surprisingly considering the dominance of London in the results, usually pretty typical of all the years in the four/five year local government election cycle. Although Caron on Lib Dem Voice wrote that, “This one in the electoral cycle has been historically brutal”, I don’t see that in the figures. Plot out either the vote shares or seat changes each year and you don’t see the cycle that came up this year as being consistently worse (or better) than the other years in the cycle. If anything, the cycle which came up this year has a record of being dead on the trend seen from the previous year and extended into the succeeding year. Which, however, still gives an optimistic conclusion as it suggests that these gains are the sort that most likely herald more next year unless major political events intervene. Add to that the slight upward drift in the party’s poll ratings pre-polling day – up by a smidgen but as it is across the board with nearly all pollsters, there might be a whiff of a real trend there which these results and positive headlines could continue. Plus the very healthy membership renewal rates at party HQ. And the failure of the plethora of new parties to establish themselves as rivals for the Lib Dems (total seat haul for them this time: zero). So you can easily paint a Lib Dem mood to match the baking sun tempting me away from my keyboard as I type. That’s the good news to luxuriate in. It’s not, however, the full picture.