Feel free to continue reading our 2019 predictions but please note that we have also recently published our 2020 art market predictions.

I’m a little late on my art market predictions this year, but I had too much fun with my 2018 art market predictions to keep my crystal ball in the closet. This year, I go deep on two trends that I think will dramatically transform the art market, not only in 2019, but for the next decade: first, increased diversity/inclusion in the art world, and second, the digital transformation of art.

I believe we are on a massive collision course between populations that are becoming increasingly diverse and an art history and art world that is still very white and very male.

Many have told me that nothing changes fast in the conservative art world. However, I am predicting nothing short of a “Moore’s Law” of diversity in art. I believe 2019 will bring double the protests and market shift towards equality from what we saw in 2018, and this doubling will continue annually until we reach visible signs of parity. I theorize that continued pressure on art museums will drive rapid cultural change which will then trickle down and transform the art market.

Equally radical, I believe rapidly evolving technology, specifically digitization, is shaping human lives faster and more dramatically than any other series of events in history. I predict that digital transformation of the art world will lead to the beginnings of the dematerialization of art (as is already happening with books and music). And I argue that rather than a rise in the commoditization of art, we are actually seeing the early beginnings of a move away from ownership by traditional definitions.

I predict that museums, galleries, and auction houses will realize improving diversity/inclusion and focusing on the rapidly shifting intersection of art + tech is the key formula for increasing interest, engagement, and participation in the arts.

The rest of this post dives into why I hold these two beliefs. I try to take a first-principles look at art and its function in society, including its use in museums and private collections. I then take a look at what I believe are two important macro trends — a strong push for diversity and inclusion, and the digital revolution — and make predictions around the impact of those trends on art, its value, and its function in society.

Museums Are Serving an Increasingly Diverse Population