Ben Driebergen

The case for Ben winning: It’s pretty easy to see the scenario for a Ben win. For weeks now, Ben has been public enemy number one. Everybody has wanted him out and yet, there he is, still alive and well on the island. Ben’s case is one of perseverance and sheer hunger to stay in the running for a million dollars.

Before he became a nomad, Ben was also “King Arthur”. Though he insisted that everybody in the “Knights of the Round Table” alliance was equal, it was clear that Ben was their leader. People were linked with him in various ways. Ashley, JP, and especially Chrissy had become close to him from sharing the Heroes tribe together. Lauren had become his number one from spending time in the minority on Yawa beach together. He pulled Devon close to him by sharing Ryan’s idol, both snatching Devon as an ally and breaking Devon’s trust in Ryan at the same time.

Because he was such a power player, the target inevitably came to him as the numbers dwindled. Sensing danger, Ben was able to pull out idols to save himself…two weeks in a row. At final five, Ben has the chance to find yet another idol and pull off an unprecedented three week run of idol plays.

In a sense, there are a lot of parallels between Ben and Mike Holloway. Both were players in a majority alliance that pulled some moves that put them squarely at the bottom. They were both able to find ways to stay immune, forcing the other players to turn on themselves while riding immunity as long as possible. The big difference between both players is that Mike mostly won challenges to stay immune while Ben found idols to stay immune. It remains to be seen if that difference will matter to a jury if Ben makes it to the end.

The story is Ben wins: From the opening minutes of the season, Ben has received attention for his marine past. We’ve seen him talk about the PTSD he’s experienced from his time out to sea. He’s talked about his wife and kids, and how they saved him from being “one foot in the grave”. In terms of personal moments, nobody has gotten more airtime than Ben and his family. If Ben were to win the season, it’s obvious that the finale would be of time as a marine, his coping process from leaving that line of work, and the change he’s undergone on the island and how it’s helped him heal some wounds.

Chrissy Hofbeck

The case for Chrissy winning: Love her or hate her, Chrissy has been playing hard all season. She’s seen the corner “moms” get painted into on Survivor and has definitely ensured it would not happen to her. Nobody on that jury sees Chrissy as a mother. They may be angry with her, but not because she was sweet to them and suddenly cut them with no regards for their feelings. No, if people are angry with Chrissy, it’s because she got the better of them.

From day one, Chrissy was a major player. She got the super idol from Ryan and chose not to use on Katrina (remember her? She was part of the season). Post-swap, she had a hand in both Roark and Ali going home, allowing Chrissy to enter the merge with her hand-picked JP and Ryan alliance. In terms of forming the initial anti-Healers movement, Chrissy was a monumental player. Her ties with Ben and Ryan were a major reason that the group was able to get together in the first place.

When things flipped on her after Lauren put together her counter-alliance, Chrissy didn’t go down without a fight. In a spot where she likely would have voted off after JP, Chrissy pulled through and won an individual immunity. Later, she won a second immunity just for good measure. For somebody who was vomiting after the first immunity challenge, Chrissy “immunity beast” is a nice little arc.

Recently, she was able to flip Devon back to her after his defection a few weeks prior. Devon was forced to choose Chrissy and Ryan, or Ashley and in the end, he cut his ride-or-die. That was because Chrissy could offer something Ashely could not: a legitimate final three alliance that has a shot to make it to the end.

Chrissy’s biggest challenge will be facing the jury. We already know that Jessica, Joe, and Desi (especially Desi), are not big fans of Chrissy. She is going to get lambasted by the jury if she makes final tribal council. It will be important for Chrissy to keep a level-head, speak about her game while trying to appease the angry jurors as much as possible, and give off a positive vibe. There is still a chance for Chrissy to pull this off despite the vitriol that may be coming her way. It will be all about how she handles it (if she’s in the final three).

The story if Chrissy wins: There are a lot of angles for a Chrissy win. It would be a story of vengeance for the betrayal she felt at the hands of Lauren, Devon, and especially Ben. She has stated multiple weeks in a row that she looks forward to getting her revenge on Ben. It would also be a story of a “mother” going past that pigeonhole and playing the game that she wants to play. Chrissy has not played up her family whatsoever on the island. She has been cutthroat and game-inclined. Even when her husband came out to visit her, Chrissy’s mind was on the game as she couldn’t help telling him about the immunity she had just won. It would be a story of pure emotion because despite Chrissy wanting to portray herself as a game oriented person, multiple times this season she has lashed out. Her anger, sadness, or disappointment in people or events have come out without Chrissy being able to control it. It has made her much more human, and much more compelling, even if Chrissy herself might not want to see it.

Devon Pinto

The case for Devon winning: We’ve seen the surfer archetype do well many times before on Survivor. In terms of pre-game, Devon definitely had the easiest “schedule” of the five remaining players. He’s attractive and physically fit. People are going to be naturally drawn to working with him… which is exactly what happened. Both Ryan and Ali just made Devon their close ally on Hustlers beach. At the swapped tribe, Devon was immediately brought into the fold by Ashley and became her ride or die. At the merge, he fell into the majority alliance because of his initial tribe colors and was asked into the smaller majority group by Lauren for being trustworthy in her eyes.

If Survivor is about the social game, Devon has something inherent about him that makes him good at it. Many Survivor legends share that same trait. Kim Spradlin oozes the same kind of affable charm which is why everybody on her season basically championed her. The same could be said of J.T., especially in Survivor: Tocantins where people were practically falling over themselves to give J.T. a million dollars. I’m not saying Devon is at their level of skill but I do believe he has the same kind of charming personality and that in itself goes a long way.

From day one, Devon has been in the know. He’s only ever cast one wrong vote which was for Ben at the tribal where he cancelled everybody’s vote. Devon is also the only remaining person to never have his name written down. Despite being this huge, physical guy, nobody has even thought to target Devon at any point during this game. He’s been able to lay low, while also calling the shots at various points in the season, and avoid making too many enemies on the jury.

Even when things flipped on Devon, he fell on his feet. After Lauren was voted out, Devon was in a very clear minority and a huge threat in the end-game. Still, no one even looked his way. In fact, Chrissy and Ryan saw it fit to align with him over somebody like Dr. Mike for a final three. Devon was able to play his way back into a majority alliance with a chance at seeing the final three, all because of the bonds he had made with Ryan and Chrissy in the past.

In the smaller majority alliance, Devon took care of the brunt of the strategy. He was the one to put the double agent plan into motion. When Chrissy won individual immunity and forced the majority to cut one of Joe or Mike, Devon was the one to tell them about Lauren’s double vote advantage to keep Joe and Mike on their side and not rebel to Ryan and Chrissy. Devon has made a lot of prescient game moves this season and if he is able to articulate them to the jury, he has a very real shot at winning it all.

The story if Devon wins: This would be a tale of social skills. A tale of calmness in a sea of turmoil. Everybody this season has been pretty messy. There has been screaming matches, arguments left and right, and alliances breaking down and reforming on the fly. Through it all, Devon has kept a cool head and allowed all of his doors to stay open in the process. It’s hard to imagine Devon yelling like Joe or Ben might and that translates to a very smooth Survivor game.

Mike Zahalsky

The case for Mike winning: Look, I’m not going to sit here and tell you that Mike has played a brilliant strategic game. Of the seven votes he’s attended, Mike has voted correctly on three of them. He already has as many wrong votes as Bob Crowley did in Survivor: Gabon but on two less attempts. We all know how Bob is viewed as a winner within the Survivor community so you can see how Mike might be seen too.

What we can also take from Bob is how he ended up winning the game. He was part of a dominant alliance that was topple early into the merge. Those players ended up on the jury with some salty feelings towards a certain sugary player and by default, votes were thrown onto Bob for being the last of his alliance remaining.

If we look at how this season has played out for Mike, we can definitely see some similarities. Mike was part of a Healers tribe that entered the merge with five players motivated to work together. Unfortunately for them, the Heroes and Hustlers saw that motivation and picked off the Healers methodically. Mike has managed to avoid the axe and remains in the game with three Healers sitting on the jury. Most of them have voiced active dislike for at least one of the other remaining players and Mike has been with them since the beginning. Might he benefit from some sour votes? It’s certainly not impossible.

The story if Mike wins: Mike’s story would be a continuation of part of Adam Klein’s story in Survivor: Millennials vs Gen X. Specifically, the angle that Survivor winners are not flawless. With Adam, they showed some very obvious missteps before he marched his way to the end. With Mike, those mistakes would be even further emphasized.

Almost from the beginning, Mike was getting pegged as untrustworthy by Joe for venturing out alone. Mike has horribly misplayed an idol, a move that I still don’t fully understand, and burned half of another for no reason other than to make good TV. He’s been shown getting everything wrong in confessionals. At the tribal council where Ben cast the single deciding vote, Mike was shown convincing Chrissy to switch her vote from Lauren onto Ben, clearly the wrong decision when Ben had an idol. Most recently, he had a confessional in which he proclaimed that Ben would never find an idol… and then Ben found an idol and put Mike in very real danger to go home.

Bob gets criticized for having zero strategic impact on his season. Mike would be more of the same, maybe to an even more extreme degree. He’s a fun personality who clearly loves the game. He’s silly and kind of weird. Mike would be a winner that purely strategic Survivor fans would absolutely hate. He would be adored by the people who watch the show for the characters, much like Fabio Birza before him. This is probably the first and only time Mike will ever be compared to Fabio.

Ryan Ulrich

The case for Ryan winning: From the first few minutes of the game, Ryan was playing hard. He found the hidden advantage at the marooning, the day three super idol. He used that knowledge to form a bond with Devon Pinto, the strongest guy on his tribe. For a seemingly weaker guy, it was important for Ryan to make these bonds with the perceived alpha male so that he would not be targeted early for being a weak link.

After the Hustlers miraculously avoided tribal council, Ryan gifted the idol to Chrissy, ensuring the chance for an ally down the line. From there, the Hustlers went to two straight tribal councils but Ryan was part of the nucleus who was calling the shots. Not once did his name get thrown out as a possible target despite his small stature and obvious difficulty when it came to competing in the challenges. He was seen by his alliance as a dependable player who was also a good strategist.

At the swap, Ryan made his move by approaching Chrissy with the knowledge of his super idol gift. He was the one to make the initial move and engage in alliance talks. As the two come down the stretch still together, it’s important to remember that the Chrissy and Ryan duo only exists because Ryan fabricated it into existence.

I would argue that the post-swap, pre-merge portion of the game is where Ryan had the most impact. He will need to know how to argue this in front of a jury who did not see a lot of this time of his game. He cut Roark, knowing that JP would be a loyal soldier to Chrissy. Because this did not please Ali, his initial hustler ally who had aligned with Roark, Ryan was at a crossroads. Cut Ali and potentially spurn the other two Hustlers left in the game by showing disloyalty, or cut Chrissy and say goodbye to any potential fake idol plan down the road. Ultimately, Ryan chose Chrissy over Ali and so far, that has seemed like the good decision.

Since the merge, Ryan has been on the down low. Early, he was in the majority alliance that picked off the Hustlers. Since the power shift, Ryan has been smart to let Chrissy get angry and put all of the heat on her. Ryan has stayed cordial to those who betrayed him and kept all of his anger for confessionals, this is how it should be done.

Of the people left, Ryan is one of two players who have not had votes count against him. He had two pinned on him at the tribal in which Joe left, but Ryan played his idol and cancelled those votes out. Ryan has not been a dominant physical player but he’s been able to make friends and use those friendships to survive some tough spots. He’s just recently been able to flip back into the majority after spending a few episodes in a very clear minority. That was thanks to his ability to reconnect with Devon after Devon had burned Ryan earlier. Had Ryan not kept his cool in front of Devon, that would have never been possible.

The story if Ryan wins: Admittedly, Ryan’s story is probably the least exciting of the people left. He’s a super fan who’s had this dream for a long time. It’s a story we’ve seen with Todd Herzog but even more explicitly with John Cochran, a comparison that has been forced upon Ryan from the beginning even if I continue to contend that they are nothing alike. Still, that would be the focus of his story. The emphasis would come from his loved one visits with his father and how this has been something Ryan has been hoping to do for years.