It’s been a week equal parts hellish and historic in the British Parliament. The Conservatives lost their majority in a dramatic mid-session defection, a “Rebel Alliance” of Conservative members of Parliament blocked their prime minister’s plans for a no-deal Brexit, and a “Remain Alliance” of the opposition parties effectively took control of the House of Commons. In his first votes as Prime Minister, Boris Johnson was stripped of both his authority and his majority, losing the power to set parliament’s Brexit agenda and losing 23 rebellious Conservative MPs in the process—including his own brother.

Against every campaign promise of the new prime minister, Britain is now poised to request a third extension from the EU, delaying its departure until January 31, 2020. In order to avoid the same series of crises, delays, and humiliations, Parliament is also now certain to trigger an election before this new date. But by pushing Britain to the polls, as the prime minister has intentionally if haphazardly done, he is risking it all: the future of his premiership, the future of his party, and not least of all, the future of Brexit.

The gamble is a familiar one. In June of 2017, former Prime Minister Theresa May made the same decision to call a snap election, hoping to build her majority and consolidate her authority in order to have an easier time passing a Brexit deal. Her efforts backfired as the Conservatives went on to lose their outright majority and Labour went on to pick up 30 seats. Every difficulty she faced for the following two years—intransigent coalition partners who held up negotiations, rebellious colleagues who tried to oust her, and crucial votes which came up short—could be traced at least in part to the failure of that election.

Two years later, the same fate may now await her eager successor. No matter when or how the election arrives, the terms of the election for Johnson will not be favorable. Either it will come in the middle of October and follow an embarrassing no-confidence vote his opposition is currently considering, or, more humiliatingly, it will come in early November after Johnson has been forced to renege on his campaign promise and extend Brexit—an act of surrender that is unlikely to impress the electorate. Worst of all, one cabinet minister suggested to The Times that Johnson could resign in October, hand over the reins to the Labour Party, and subsequently call for a no-confidence vote in the new Labour government.

Brexit has never been messier, but in the eyes of Johnson’s supporters, all is going according to plan, albeit a reckless and risky plan. For them, the prime minister has pulled off an impressive one-two punch these past few days. First he “deselected”— barred from running for reelection—the 21 Conservative MPs in the “Rebel Alliance” who voted against his no-deal Brexit plans. Then he immediately called for a general election. In doing so, Johnson has set himself up to fill the Conservative Party’s candidate lists with his allies and remake his party in his image. That is, of course, if he can win.