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In 40 days, Britain goes to the polls to elect a new Westminster government.

Before that, the council elections next week will give us a sure indication of how Scotland intends to vote on June 8.

Every poll and pointer so far suggests three things will come to pass:

1. The SNP will still be, far and away, the biggest party. They will not reach the high-water mark of 2015 with 56 of Scotland’s 59 MPs but they will still be totally dominant.

2. Labour will take an absolute battering all over the country. Even though they hope to have three MPs, it is entirely possible, if not probable, that they will fail to return a single Scottish Labour member to the Commons.

3. The Tories will continue their resurgence and gain seats from the SNP.

(Image: Daily Record/DWP)

And while there are still almost six full weeks of campaigning to go and much to play for, the reason these things are likely to happen comes down to just one, mammoth, all-consuming national political obsession: the constitution.

The SNP want independence at all or any cost. The Scottish Tories want to remain in Britain at all or any cost.

And while Scottish Labour are unwaveringly behind the Union, mixed messages from London Labour have sown the seeds of

doubt about the party’s commitment to Scotland’s place in the UK.

These doubts have spread like a virus amongst committed Labour unionists who are turning away from the bosom of a party they’ve supported all their life.

Now they’re lending their support to the Tories, believing they offer the best chance of halting the SNP march to independence.

While those former diehard Labour voters are fully entitled to protect their cherished place in Great Britain, voting to strengthen the Conservatives’ grip on power is a decision they may come to regret.

Make no mistake, this is a Tory Government driven by right-wing ideology. Whatever it plans, it will not end well for the majority of working class Scots.

(Image: PA)

The Cabinet of Theresa May – the shameless Boris Johnson, Damien Green, Philip Hammond, David Davis, the Scot Liam Fox, et al – are no friends of Scotland.

This newspaper was no fan of David Cameron and George Osborne. But this current bunch demonstrate a nastiness of an entirely different magnitude. The repugnant rape clause is a stark warning about how vindictive this Government can be.

If they are emboldened by an increased majority at Westminster, be under no illusion, things will get worse. And it could get very, very much worse for Scotland.

By way of explanation, we need to wind the clock back to early 2016.

In January last year the Scottish Government were locked in bitter negotiations with the Treasury over a financial settlement required to fund the new powers coming to Holyrood because of The Vow.

These fiscal framework negotiations revolved around the Barnett Formula.

The Treasury team were desperate to cut billions from the Scottish budget. They have been itching to take money away from Holyrood for years and they saw this as a perfect opportunity.

If they got their way, the outcome would have been disastrous for Scotland.

(Image: Getty)

They did not get their way for one very good reason … David Cameron had signed The Vow on the front page of this newspaper.

To stiff Scotland out of billions of pounds would have left his questionable integrity shattered.

So he ordered the Treasury to roll over and agree to maintain Scotland’s funding for five years until a review in 2021. The Treasury was furious.

When Scotland’s settlement comes up for renegotiation in a few short years time, there will be no David Cameron there to protect us, even if last time it was for purely personal reasons.

Next time, the discussions will be led by Tory ideologues and a Treasury department hell-bent on revenge for not getting their way last time round.

The outcome could be catastrophic for the NHS, education, and everything else the Scottish Government pay for north of the Border.

That’s bad enough but here’s the real kick in the unmentionables for those Labour unionist diehards tempted to swing behind the Tories.

The Yes campaign lost in 2014 because they could not offer an economic argument that trumped Better Together’s pooling and sharing promise of staying in Britain.

If the Tories do win a bigger majority this time round and they do rip up Barnett and cut billions from our budgets, the economic arguments for staying in the Union are null and void.

And that may be more than enough to swing a second referendum the way of Yes.

There is also little evidence that the Tories have ever been anything but disastrous for the Union.

(Image: PA)

It was the Tories who propped up Alex Salmond at Holyrood from 2007 to 2011, giving the nationalists the springboard they needed to hold the first independence referendum.

It was the Tories who handed a major boost to Nicola Sturgeon’s 2015 general election campaign by cynically pitting England against Scotland by talking up a fantasy coalition between Labour and the SNP.

And it was the Tories who caused the unholy Brexit mess that has put the prospect of a second indyref back on the table in such short order.

Elections are about choices but it’s not always as simple as a cross in the box. We know a lot of thought goes into the decision.

When people voted for the Tories in the Scottish election last year, it was to clip the wings of the SNP Government at Holyrood.

Through the wisdom of crowds, the voters got exactly what they wanted – the SNP were denied a majority but remained the dominant force in Scottish politics.

But attempting to transfer that nuanced voting decision – and few electorates are more experienced or sophisticated than Scotland’s population – to a Westminster election scenario is wishful thinking.

(Image: PA Wire)

Sure, more than half the voters are against independence and don’t want their votes to be interpreted as some kind of endorsement for Sturgeon’s political vision, as they were after the EU referendum.

It’s understandable that people would want to “send a message” to the SNP about having their votes hijacked for another purpose.

That is the reason Ruth Davidson’s Tories use that as their sly election message.

But if people vote Tory this time, it is for real. A Tory Government – a vicious Tory Government – is what they will get.

That will not be in their own interests or the interests of many of their friends and families.

For Labour voters thinking of lending votes to Tory candidates, there are other choices.

They may not be great choices but they are all better than voting Tory in 40 days.

So be careful what you wish for. You have been warned.