Elfrid Payton is Everything or a Cajun Black Hole that will destroy the Orlando Magic MagicalRamblings Follow Jul 13, 2016 · 5 min read

At first glance, my beloved Magic had a divisive offseason to put it mildly. Depending on who you talk to, the Magicians either



A. Shored up their frontcourt rotation while giving up a prospect who hasn’t developed and a late lottery pick in Sabonis

or

B. Created a logjam in the frontcourt after getting robbed by OKC for Oladipo

Whichever scenario that you buy into, chances are we both agree on one thing: Elfrid Payton will be the starting PG for Orlando this season. What most people don’t talk about (and let’s face it, who is actually talking about the Orlando Magic in the middle of July?) is just how vital his development is, not only for this season, but for the franchise as a whole.

At first glance, there’s a lot to like about the kid from the swamps of Louisiana. He stands 6'4", handles the ball well, displays good court vision, seems to have that “it” factor that you look for in players when closing out games, and has great hair to boot. Granted, none of these qualities show up in the box score, but still nice to see during the doldrums of yet another losing regular season. One of my fonder memories over the past couple years was watching EP put up a triple-double against the Dallas Mavericks on ESPN during his rookie year. It was a typical gritty performance from him, but under the big lights it seemed as if he turned it up a notch. He instantly cemented his place in my mind as a player to watch on this team. He runs the pick and pop well with only one legitimate big man (Jason Smith. Andrew Nicholson. Dewayne Dedmon. How many NBA fans actually knew those three names last year?), and gets into the paint seemingly at will.

Unfortunately, all of these qualities that endear him to fans are offset by statistics that do show up in box scores. Payton cannot shoot the ball. At all. I loathe to say a professional’s shot is broken, so I’ll say that it’s a mess instead. He shot 44% from the field, 33% from deep, which at first glance isn’t as bad as it could be. Good players have had worse seasons. However, when watching games, a trend appears: virtually every jumper he takes is an open catch and shoot jumper. That is when the shooting numbers begin to be slightly alarming. Defenses in the NBA are always looking for edges, no matter how slight. It’s why Steve Kerr assigned Andrew Bogut to guard Tony Allen a couple of years ago. People tend to forget among the Warriors mania that the Warriors were down that series, and switching the assignment allowed the Warriors to force Tony Allen to beat them from the outside. Spoiler in case you’re watching the NBA on a 2 year tape delay: It didn’t work. Allen couldn’t shoot enough, the Warriors packed the paint, and here we are. Sticking a player like Payton who the defense can leave completely alone with minimal consequences on the perimeter is conceding an edge to every opponent in today’s NBA, and the Magic aren’t talented enough at any one position to offset it. This lack of shooting permeates to when Payton is running the offense as well. Opponents go under literally EVERY screen against him. Not joking. Watch a Magic game from last year and find a play where someone goes over a screen against him and I’ll buy you a beer. Because of this, he can’t penetrate (easily) on drives, and without a truly dominant big man to draw some attention from him, it can make watching offensive possessions a bit of a chore.

So clearly a pretty big wrinkle, if not an uncommon one. We see players that can’t make it in the NBA every year, so why is Elfrid Payton so important to the future of this Magic team? Point guard is a pretty deep position, and it should (in theory) be relatively straightforward to sign an aging veteran in the offseason that would be a better fit with this roster. This would all make sense, in a vacuum where there weren’t any expectations from the ownership. The fact of the matter is, the Magic have been bad for the past 5 years. Awful actually. In the midst of this rebuild, it’s easy to praise GM Rob Hennigan for his savvy trades (The Fournier trade most recently has been a resounding success) and smart drafting (Oladipo, Payton, Gordon). However, one of his prize picks (Oladipo) has just been shipped off, and the franchise hasn’t sniffed the playoffs in years. After the Scott Skiles debacle, Josh Robbins (a typically well sourced beat writer in Orlando) leaked that one of the main reasons for his departure was a clash over Payton. The front office (read: Hennigan) saw Payton as the franchise point guard of the future. Skiles clearly did not. If the franchise were to cut ties with Payton, he will have cost them a head coach, a Philadelphia lottery pick, and time that could have been dedicated to either signing another PG, or drafting another young guard (Emmanuel Mudiay springs to mind, though his shooting isn’t any better). General managers have lost their jobs over much less than losing that many assets. If the Elfrid Experiment (trademark pending) doesn’t work out, it wouldn’t be out of the question to wonder about Hennigan’s job security. With a new GM comes change. Change means more losses, more rebuilding, more apathy in the Orlando area from a fanbase whose peak is slightly engaged as it is. But who knows. It could all work out, right? Maybe Elf comes back with a serviceable shot that could convince a few defenders to step out on him from time to time. Maybe there will be just enough spacing on the floor with Fournier, Ibaka, and Vucevic to allow him to penetrate deep into the paint, which he is clearly comfortable doing. Or maybe his jumper will never be there. Maybe the spacing doesn’t figure itself out. Maybe the Magic miss the playoffs, Hennigan gets fired, and the franchise deals their “point guard of the future” in the first step to rebuilding a team that never really fit together, and was just athletic and young enough to convince us otherwise for a couple of years. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time I’ve watched something like this happen. Good luck Elf. I’m counting on you this season. I think we all are.