Ohio voters, wrong only twice when picking the president in the last 108 years, remain nearly split over their choice for the White House, according to a new Ohio Newspaper Poll.

But while the race remains a statistical dead heat, more voters are siding with Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, who has erased Republican Sen. John McCain's previous lead in the Buckeye State and now holds a 3-point advantage, 49 percent to 46 percent.

The poll, when compared with the two previous Ohio Newspaper Polls, suggests the Illinois senator has momentum on his side.

The latest poll of 886 likely voters, conducted Oct. 18-22, also asked Ohioans their views on the Iraq war and national security, issues where McCain holds an advantage. But with the economic crisis eclipsing all other issues, especially in Ohio, Obama has been able to keep the race focused on pocketbook issues, to his benefit.

The poll shows that support for Obama has increased by 7 percentage points since the first poll was taken in mid-September. McCain's support has declined by 2 percentage points since then, and he has lost ground with white voters and with men.

The polls were conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati and have a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

Eric Rademacher, interim co-director of the institute, says that Obama has an edge but that the highly charged race and partisan electorate make the contest similar to the unpredictable one four years ago.

"It is very possible that 2008 could be a repeat of 2004, when the race for Ohio was decided by just 2 percentage points," he said.

The campaign in Ohio, which has been marked by negative television advertising and harsh rhetoric, is also potentially volatile because 11 percent of voters surveyed said they might change their minds. Just 3 percent remain undecided.

The polls were conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati and have a margin of error of 3.3 percent.

Eric Rademacher, interim co-director of the institute, says Obama has an edge, but the highly charged race and partisan electorate make the contest similar to the unpredictable one four years ago.

"It is very possible that 2008 could be a repeat of 2004 when the race for Ohio was decided by just two percentage points," he said.

The campaign in Ohio, which has been marked by negative television advertising and harsh rhetoric, is also potentially volatile because 11 percent of voters surveyed said they might change their minds. Just 3 percent remain undecided.

Both campaigns and special interest groups are trying to sway these voters by flooding them with last-minute negative messages in the mail.

Other Ohio polls

The Ohio Newspaper Poll is one of many surveys recently done in the state. Here are others:



Politico

Obama 52%

McCain 42%



CNN/Time

Obama 50%

McCain 46%

Fox News/Rasmussen

McCain 49%

Obama 47%



Quinnipiac

Obama 52%

McCain 38%

NBC/Mason Dixon

McCain 46%

Obama 45%



SOURCE: realclearpolitics.com

Both campaigns and special-interest groups are trying to sway these voters by flooding them with last-minute negative messages in the mail.

The Ohio Republican Party, for instance, mailed a flier last week that misrepresents Obama's relationship to William Ayers, a one-time member of the Weather Underground, an anti-government group responsible for bombings in the 1970s, including one at the Pentagon.

"This is the story of William Ayers . . . Terrorist. Radical. Friend of Obama," the four-page flier reads on the front. Another one from the party attacks Obama for his support of gun-control bills, though the flier fails to give his complete position on the issue.

A Democratic-leaning special-interest group, Bring Ohio Back, sent voters a flier featuring a picture of a battered woman and including the false charge that McCain doesn't support certain women's issues and the Violence Against Women Act.

"Those kind of messages are really a target for undecided people and those who might change their mind," Rademacher says.

When a voter gets in the voting booth, Rademacher says, these messages could trigger "a second thought."

Undecided voter Diana Schneider of Grove City said her decision will come down to the candidates' positions on two issues: the economy and immigration.

"I'll support the one who will do more to bring the economy back where it was at," said Schneider, 60, a retired federal employee who is still studying their positions. "Until we can get up on our feet and stop shipping our jobs overseas, we need to get people back to work before letting more foreigners in the country."

The presidential race has been defined by the nation's economic troubles, especially the recent Wall Street meltdown and the Main Street credit crunch, which has refocused both voters and the candidates' policies on job creation, taxes and health care.

Throughout the campaign, Obama has argued that McCain, an Arizona senator, would continue the "failed economic policies of President Bush" while Obama would provide relief to the middle class. Obama also has attacked McCain's health-care plan, especially in TV ads.

In the second Ohio Newspaper Poll, released two weeks ago, voters said Obama would do a better job of handling the economy than McCain. But it was only a slight advantage, 47 percent to 44 percent.

McCain charges that Obama's tax plan would hurt small-business owners. More recently, McCain has attacked his rival's plan to raise taxes on the wealthy as tantamount to socialism.

Despite such attacks, the highest-income voters moved away from McCain, compared with previous polls. Of those who said they earn more than $60,000, 49 percent side with Obama, 47 percent with McCain. Obama lost ground with voters earning between $40,000 and $60,0000, though he still holds a 6-point advantage with them. Such demographic data, however, have a higher margin of error than the overall poll because the sampling size of subgroups is smaller.

Delores Balogh of Struthers is a 71-year-old retiree who says she's voting for Obama because she has connected with his economic plan.

"McCain hasn't mentioned anything about our jobs that have been shipped overseas," she said. "I think Obama is intelligent and is focused on things like hospitalization."

The latest poll also asked voters about national security, the top issue in the 2004 election, which helped President Bush defeat Democratic Sen. John Kerry. But the issue has been overshadowed by the economic crisis.

A large part of McCain's candidacy has been his national-security experience, reflected in his ads as well as his campaign's theme, "Country first." And he has an advantage on the issue.

One of every two voters believes McCain would do a better job in dealing with the situation in Iraq. And by a wide margin -- 52 percent to 39 percent -- voters say they believe McCain would do the best job protecting the country from future terrorist attacks.

The presidential race has been defined by the nation's economic troubles, especially the recent Wall Street meltdown and the Main Street credit crunch, which has refocused both voters and the candidates' policies on job creation, taxes and health care.

The Ohio News Organization that commissioned the three recent Ohio Newspaper Polls is a cooperative formed this year by the state's eight largest newspapers to share news and features.

The newspapers in the group include the Akron Beacon Journal, the Blade, the Cincinnati Enquirer, the Columbus Dispatch, Dayton Daily News, The Plain Dealer, the Canton Repository of Canton, and Youngstown Vindicator.

The newspapers commissioned the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati to conduct today's poll, which was done by surveying 886 likely Ohio voters Oct. 18-22. The poll had an error margin of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Two earlier Ohio Newspaper Polls were published in the eight newspapers on Sept. 14 and Oct. 12.

Throughout the campaign, Obama has argued that McCain, an Arizona senator, will continue the "failed economic policies of President Bush" while he will provide relief to the middle class. Obama also has attacked McCain's health-care plan, especially in television ads.

In the second Ohio Newspaper Poll, released two weeks ago, voters said Obama will do a better job of handling the economy than McCain. But it was only a slight advantage, 47 percent to 44 percent.

McCain charges that Obama's tax plan will hurt small business owners. More recently McCain has attacked his rival's plan to raise taxes on the wealthy as tantamount to socialism.

Despite such attacks, the highest income voters moved away from McCain, compared to previous polls. Of those who said they earn more than $60,000, 49 percent side with Obama, 47 percent with McCain. Obama lost ground with voters earning between $40,000 and $60,0000, though he still holds six-point advantage with them. Such demographic data, however, has a higher margin of error than the overall poll because the sampling size of subgroups is smaller.

Delores Balogh of Struthers is a 71-year-old retiree who says she's voting for Obama because she has connected with his economic plan.

"McCain hasn't mentioned anything about our jobs that have been shipped overseas," she said. "I think Obama is intelligent and is focused on things like hospitalization."

The latest poll also asked voters about national security, the top issue in the 2004 election, which helped President Bush defeat Democrat John Kerry. But it has been overshadowed by the economic crisis.

A large part of McCain's candidacy has been his national security experience, reflected in his ads as well as his campaign's theme, "country first." And he has a advantage on the issue.

One of every two voters believes McCain will do better job in dealing with the situation in Iraq. And by a wide margin - 52 percent to 39 percent - voters say they believe McCain will do the best job protecting the country from future terrorist attacks.

Stay-at-home mom Angela Roehrenbeck, 42, of Canal Winchester, says McCain is the clear choice on national security.

"I like the fact that he fought for our country and that he has a record we can see and he has experience," she said.

The electorate in Ohio, though, remains conflicted by the war in Iraq. A majority say the decision to go to war was wrong. But more voters -- 37 percent -- say the war has made the United States safer than the 23 percent who say it has made the nation less safe. Thirty-eight percent said the war made no difference in the country's safety.

Voters break along party lines on the question of whether the next president should set a specific timetable to withdraw from Iraq. Overall, 52 percent of voters do not support setting a timetable.

McCain's hard-line policy on the Iraq war turned off Democrat Drew Abbott, 46, a Cincinnati restaurant owner, small-scale real estate developer and self-described former independent voter.

Abbott says he wasn't initially against McCain.

But McCain's obstinate position became a concern. "I think he is wedded to the concept of our winning," Abbott said. "He thinks we are going to win it. We are not."

Abbott, who has spent a lot of time in Europe, says he is dismayed "at how the world looks at us."

He shared a story about a recent business trip to London, where he was treated by a physician from Iraq. Afterward, she asked if he minded an impolite question: "Why have you destroyed my country?"

"I said, 'I don't know,' and 'I'm sorry,' " Abbott recalled.

Roehrenbeck, however, feels the United States is winning in Iraq. She worries that success there is being overshadowed by the economy and believes McCain needs to stay on that message.

"People always want money in their pockets," she said. "I do think McCain needs to hit home on the economics because that's where people's hearts are right now. People do need to look. Obama will raise taxes."

The poll also asked voters about immigration, which has received virtually no attention from candidates this year.

Fifty-six percent of voters said illegal immigrants should be allowed to become U.S. citizens, while 27 percent said they should be deported. Fifteen percent said the United Sates should allow illegal immigrants to remain in the country to work for a limited time.

With a little more than a week before the election, the poll reflects Ohio's divided electorate that's long been a bellwether. No Republican has ever won the White House without winning this state.

That might explain why McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, have campaigned aggressively in Ohio during the last two weeks. Palin has visited Ohio four times since Oct. 12, appearing one day with McCain, who has visited three times.

He returns to Ohio on Monday.

Plain Dealer Washington Bureau Chief Stephen Koff contributed to this report.