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For five years, the volume of crude oil transported on B.C. railways increased dramatically.

In 2009, there were only six carloads of crude pulled by train through B.C.

By 2014, that number had jumped to 5,100 cars.

During that period, there were more than a half-dozen high-profile accidents in North America involving oil by rail, including one in 2013 in Lac-Mégantic, Quebec, which resulted in 47 deaths.

Those accidents occurring during the same period that the volume of oil moving along B.C. tracks increased so dramatically led to concerns for safety. In a July 2014 Georgia Straight cover story, a number of Metro Vancouver mayors voiced alarm and said they wanted more information about hazardous goods moving through their cities.

But since 2014, the stats have taken a nose-dive.

According to data supplied by Transport Canada, the number of train cars that carried crude oil in B.C. dropped from 5,100 in 2014 to 1,200 in 2015.

Transport Canada said it could not reveal data for 2016 but it’s likely the number remained low. The reason Transport Canada gave for withholding information is that only one carrier moved oil by rail through B.C. last year, so the volume is “considered commercially sensitive”.

Beth Lau is manager of crude-oil supply and transportation for the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. In a telephone interview, she said that the decline in oil by rail through B.C. is a result of economics.

Beginning in 2014, the global price of a barrel of oil declined, Lau explained. That contributed to a decrease in the difference between the price of a Canadian barrel of oil compared to the global price. A decrease in the difference between the two made the transport of Canadian oil to international markets by rail less economical compared to alternative sources received by ship or pipeline.

“Once that narrows, then crude by rail becomes, potentially, in certain circumstances, less economical,” Lau said.

Travis Lupick / Transport Canada

She however noted the downward trend observed in B.C. could be about to swing up.

Lau said the volumes of crude oil transported by rail across all of Canada fell during the same period as the decline observed in B.C. But since the start of 2017, at a national level—for which data is publicly available—oil-by-rail numbers have again been on the rise.

Across Canada, the number of export barrels of oil transported by rail hit a four-year low in June 2016, when 1.3 million barrels were moved on railcars that month. (Before 2012, the volume of oil transported via rail in Canada was negligible.)

Since then, that number has risen steadily, to 4.8 million in March 2017.

That’s on par with numbers observed through late 2014, when there was more oil moved on trains around Canada than at any other time in recent history.

“What we’re seeing, nationwide, is that it is starting to peak up in January-February data in 2017,” Lau said.

Travis Lupick / Transport Canada

Ben West is an environmentalist who has worked with Tanker Free B.C. and has organized some of Vancouver’s biggest antipipeline demonstrations. In a telephone interview, he argued that the pipeline-versus-rail debate has become something of a red herring.

“It’s basically a threat the industry has held over people who are concerned about pipelines,” West told the Straight. “Kinder Morgan invested in expanded rail infrastructure at the same time as proposing new pipelines. They want to move as much oil in as many different ways as possible. So it’s not one or the other.”

Looking at the bigger picture, West said the final say on Canadian oil-pipeline development could go to forces much larger than any one country.

“There is this argument that there is this mad rush to get Canadian oil to market and the reality is that Canadian oil is actually relatively difficult to get out of the ground and get to market, whether it is by pipeline or by rail,” he said. “The price of oil dropping has made it fundamentally uneconomic.”