Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump leads likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 2 points in Iowa, according to a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday.

Mr. Trump had a 2-point, 44 percent to 42 percent, lead over Mrs. Clinton in the poll, with Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson at 6 percent, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 1 percent. The 2-point edge was inside the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

“It’s a toss-up right now, but Iowa could be the leading edge of a Midwest push for Trump,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton received close to 90 percent support among their respective parties, while Mr. Trump had a 4-point edge among independents, 39 percent to 35 percent, with 10 percent choosing Mr. Johnson, and 4 percent choosing Ms. Stein or another candidate.

Mrs. Clinton had a 21-point, 54 percent to 33 percent, lead over Mr. Trump among women, while Mr. Trump had a 27-point, 56 percent to 29 percent, lead among men.

The survey was taken from July 8-11 — immediately following FBI Director James B. Comey’s testimony about Mrs. Clinton’s private email set-up on Capitol Hill on July 7.

Forty-three percent of voters in the survey said they believe Mrs. Clinton acted criminally with her email set-up, while 32 percent said she showed poor judgment, 11 percent said she did nothing out of the ordinary, and 15 percent offered no opinion.

Mr. Comey said Mrs. Clinton was reckless in her private email use, but did not recommend charges in the case.

A polling memo said that unlike other national and state Monmouth surveys, Mr. Trump led among voters under 50 years old. Mr. Trump had the support of 51 percent of those voters, compared to 32 percent for Mrs. Clinton, 7 percent for Mr. Johnson, and 3 percent for Ms. Stein or another candidate.

Among voters age 50 or older, Mrs. Clinton had 50 percent support, compared to 38 percent for Mr. Trump, 4 percent for Mr. Johnson, and 1 percent for Ms. Stein or another candidate.

Though both candidates were underwater in terms of favorability, Mr. Trump’s numbers were marginally better. He had a 33 percent/51 percent favorable/unfavorable split, compared to Mrs. Clinton’s 32 percent/56 percent split.

President Obama carried the state by about 10 points in 2008 and by about 6 points in 2012.

In the state’s U.S. Senate contest, longtime GOP Sen. Charles E. Grassley held a 10-point, 52 percent to 42 percent, lead over Democrat Patty Judge in the survey.

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