On 1 September, Poland commemorated the outbreak of the Second World War. Just over 80 years ago, Nazi Germany attacked its neighbour in a strong westward push, later joined by the Soviet Red Army through Poland’s eastern border. A decade ago, the 70th anniversary was marked by the attendance of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the start of a short-lasting reset in Polish-Russian relations.

This time round Russia was not invited, and the star performance was meant to be provided by US President Donald Trump. While the current Polish government has frosty relations with many other EU member states and is facing criticism for its disrespect of the rule of law and media freedom, the good relationship with Trump provides much-needed relief for Warsaw.

New transatlantic partnership

Contrary to former US President Barack Obama, Trump has offered no criticism of Poland’s backsliding of democratic standards. Moreover, bilateral cooperation in terms of military and energy has intensified in recent years.

The Trump administration has upheld and boosted rotational deployments of US forces in Poland, both within NATO and bilateral frameworks, as initially set out by the Obama administration.

The current Polish government has lobbied intensively in Washington to increase further the number of US troops and to change their status from rotational to permanent. The Polish Ministry of Defence offered to invest two billion dollars for this increased presence and to name a dedicated facility “Fort Trump”.

The appeal to the president’s vanity and commercial instinct appeared to have been fertile.

Last June, at a joint press conference with Polish President Andrzej Duda at the White House, Trump announced that the US presence will be increased by another 1,000 troops – although Poland will foot the entire bill.

More details were scheduled to be announced during Trump’s visit to Warsaw in the context of the 80th anniversary of the start of WW2. In addition to the agreement on the increased presence of US troops, there would be an accord on Warsaw’s readiness to purchase F-35 aircrafts and related defence contracts with US companies.

Trump was also meant to announce that Poland would join the visa-waver programme. Finally, there were indications of a several technological agreements, including a declaration about 5G – effectively excluding Huawei technology from the Polish market.

No shows

While the expectations on the Polish side were major, the entire event was dependent on Trump’s presence as a key pull factor. His late cancellation, just a day before the planned commemorations, failed to provide the Polish government with a much-needed diplomatic boost.

Had it not been for Germany, which was represented by its President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Chancellor Angela Merkel, the commemorations would have gone dramatically flat.

Although Merkel did not plan to attend and had no role to perform at the commemoration, she made a last minute appearance to emphasise the importance of the anniversary. No other major power had a similar representation of the highest political level.

With the US represented by Vice President Mike Pence, no major agreement was signed. There was only an accord concerning the 5G technology that would keep Huawei out of the Polish market.

Responding to the pressures from the US administration, Poland also cancelled plans to impose a digital tax, which would have had an impact on Silicon Valley giants such as Google and Facebook.

Whilst these decisions maybe strengthening Poland’s relations with the Trump administration, they are clearly one-sided.

Mercurial military whims

One Trump decision, announced a few days after the commemorations, was in fact to cut funding for the European Deterrence Initiative that included US military installations in Poland.

Poland’s security and its geopolitical conditions are incomparably more favourable today than they were in 1939. 80 years ago, Poland was squeezed between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union, both of which were raising territorial claims against Poland.

There was no NATO and no European Union. Poland’s security rested first and foremost on an alliance with France, later joined by the United Kingdom. This raised expectations that never materialised. What followed was a tragedy not just for Poland but for the entire world.

Today, Poland is a member of the EU and NATO, and it is simply a stronger state with fewer internal problems. The current international system is more peaceful and the United States remains engaged in Europe, at least for the foreseeable future.

Yet, it is difficult not to see some parallels with the situation from 80 years back. At the outbreak of the war, Poland was isolated in the regional context and it was desperately clinging to security assurances from its remote allies. As the attendance at the ceremonies on 1 September have shown, today’s Poland is not exactly the flavour of the month of the international community.

While Poland’s bilateral alliance with the US may seem strong, it is very much one-sided and rests chiefly on the Trump administration. This is not exactly a sound strategy to base the nation’s security on and is a repetition of past mistakes.

The WW2-commemorations have demonstrated in a symbolical sense that Poland’s modernisation and security relies primarily on its membership of the EU and a close relationship to its next-door neighbour Germany. At the same time, there is no doubt that Poland’s security requires a strong engagement of the United States.

Transatlantic cooperation has suffered from mounting disagreements between Germany and the Trump administration in the US. Sooner or later this will affect also Poland. Alas, the current leadership in Warsaw does not seem to recognise this.

This article is part of the #DemocraCE project.