Expectations and hype can often muddle the evaluation process for a young player. If too much is unreasonably expected too soon, then production that would be considered successful in most cases can sometimes be overlooked or dismissed as not enough to meet the artificial bar that was set for the player.

Some say that the NFL stands for “Not For Long” which does accurately describe the amount of time most young players get to prove themselves. Baseball players often get three years to develop in the minor league system plus a grace period during their rookie season once they reach the major league level before they’re expected to produce at a rate equal to their veteran counterparts. That’s certainly not the case for rookies in the NFL.

High draft picks will almost always receive a one or two year pass if they don’t produce right away, but by the end of year three—when baseball players are still in the minors or just cracked the major league roster—if they’re not putting up the numbers that many attached to them as expectations in year one, then they’re shown the door.

Many of them will get a second chance in a new city, but their opportunity to improve and climb out of the hole they dug over previous seasons is greatly reduced because of the dramatic decrease in their role and playing time.

There are many examples of guys who were able to overcome the odds in a new city after a disappointing start to their career like Jason Babin or Marshawn Lynch, but considering the average length of an NFL career is between three to five years, the number of players who get buried in that hole far outnumbers the players who are able to climb out. Even if you take the top-end of that range the average player is out of the league before he reaches unrestricted free-agency.

Many factors that can hold players back like poor coaching, injuries or a bad roster around them aren’t their fault, but the excuses won’t matter when they’re eventually sitting on their couch during football season. The mark of a special player is the ability to not make those excuses for themselves and instead overcome the obstacles on the path to greatness.

Thankfully for the Houston Texans and their fans it appears 2013 first round pick DeAndre Hopkins was able to do just that this season.

Having to learn two very different offenses and deal with awful quarterback play over his first two seasons would have held back many players and presented them with reasonable excuses for subpar production, but Hopkins rose above all of that and turned in a very productive season in 2014. So productive that I’m very confident in his ability to establish himself as a true No. 1 wide receiver for the Texans over the next couple seasons.

Hopkins didn’t light the world on fire during his rookie season, but his numbers were pretty favorable to other great receivers in their first year. When you factor in that he was able to match those great players with Matt Schaub in a season long tailspin and Case Keenum just trying to keep his head above water while being overwhelmed by every blitz thrown his way, it really was a remarkable feat.

Hopkins’ Rookie Season vs. Other Rookie Seasons:

Hopkins – 52 receptions, 802 yards, 2 touchdowns

Jerry Rice – 49 receptions, 927 yards, 3 touchdowns

Marvin Harrison – 64 receptions, 836 yards, 8 touchdowns

Cris Carter – 5 receptions, 84 yards, 2 touchdowns

Tim Brown – 43 receptions, 725 yards, 5 touchdowns

Terrell Owens – 35 receptions, 520 yards, 4 touchdowns

Reggie Wayne – 27 receptions, 345 yards, 0 touchdowns

Isaac Bruce – 21 receptions, 272 yards, 3 touchdowns

Andre Johnson – 66 receptions, 976 yards, 4 touchdowns

Hines Ward – 15 receptions, 246 yards, 0 touchdowns

That list of players that I’m comparing to Hopkins represents the top 10 players of all-time on the career receptions list except for Tony Gonzalez who of course plays a different position. Other than Andre Johnson and Marvin Harrison who bested Hopkins in each of the three stat categories, Hopkins compares very favorably to every other player. More than just equaling some of the greatest players to ever play the position during their rookie season, he flat out blew away the production of Cris Carter, Reggie Wayne, Isaac Bruce and Hines Ward in year one.

So maybe the fans who were disappointed after his rookie season were a bit premature in their judgment of his potential.

Hopkins was by no means a consistent “difference-maker” during his rookie season, but when grading his performance on a curve because of the quarterback play he had to deal with, I think it would be hard to argue that he didn’t play well.

As a rookie Hopkins struggled with running his routes consistently and made too many mental mistakes—which eventually got him benched during a game against Oakland by Gark Kubiak—but despite all that his stats were still pretty good and he made big plays like the game-winning catch against Tennessee in Week 2 of that season.

Going back to my earlier comment that what makes players special is their ability to overcome and improve despite obstacles in their way, Hopkins turned those weaknesses from his rookie year into strengths going into his second season. Bill O’Brien praised Hopkins during training camp for the transformation he had seen; Hopkins didn’t rest and rely on his natural athletic ability alone like so many other young players. That improvement then of course transferred over to the regular season when his production level improved greatly despite the quarterback play not taking a huge leap forward.

Those stats from Hopkins in year two also compared favorably to some of the greatest receivers of all-time.

Hopkins Second Season vs. Other Second Seasons:

Hopkins – 76 receptions, 1,210 yards, 6 touchdowns

Marvin Harrison – 73 receptions, 866 yards, 6 touchdowns

Cris Carter – 39 receptions, 761 yards, 6 touchdowns

Terrell Owens – 60 receptions, 936 yards, 8 touchdowns

Reggie Wayne – 49 receptions, 716 yards, 4 touchdowns

Andre Johnson – 79 receptions, 1,142 yards, 6 touchdowns

Hines Ward – 61 receptions, 638 yards, 7 touchdowns

Andre Johnson is the gold standard for this organization and arguably this generation of receivers and Hopkins matched him across the board in their second season. In fact Johnson didn’t beat Hopkins’ year two totals for receiving yards or touchdowns until his sixth and fifth seasons respectively.

Unfortunately the Pro Football Focus stats and grades only go back to 2007, so we can’t compare how he performed against guys like Rice, Carter, Wayne, Johnson, Harrison or Owens in those areas, but we can compare him to the top stars at the position today.

Hopkins this season ranked 11th in yards per route run which only counts the plays where a receiver actually went out into a pattern and wasn’t blocking on a swing pass, running play or screen. This stat helps even the playing field a bit when measuring performance because it eliminates the advantage that receivers who play in up-tempo and/or pass-first offenses receive with the increased targets compared to receivers who play in more run-heavy offenses.

Obviously a receiver for Indianapolis or New Orleans will get more targets than a receiver who plays for Houston or Seattle; this stat eliminates that advantage by taking the average of what they produce when actually used as a receiver. Hopkins finished just one spot below Calvin Johnson in that stat and above guys like Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffrey, Golden Tate and Jeremy Maclin who all had great seasons in 2014.

According to Pro Football Focus Hopkins also ranked as the ninth best deep-threat receiver with zero drops on catchable passes over 20-yards—ahead of guys like Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green, Odell Beckham Jr. and Calvin Johnson—and eighth in overall drop percentage with only three drops on 79 catchable passes thrown his way this season.

Hopkins overall rating of +10.3 from Pro Football Focus ranked 12th among wide receivers this season and was better than or nearly equal to many of the second seasons of the receivers ranked inside the top 10 this year in receiving yards.

Hopkins Second Year PFF Grade vs. Other Current Great Receivers in Year Two:

Besides Odell Beckham Jr.—who is in his rookie year so doesn’t have a second season to compare—those receivers compared to Hopkins make up the top 10 list for receiving yards in 2014. Of those great receivers, only Antonio Brown had a better PFF grade in year two than Hopkins. Call it tough to evaluate Hopkins, but by at least that measure Hopkins had a better second season than Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones or Dez Bryant; that’s damn impressive.

One note on those grades: I subtracted the points accrued from their playoff games to make the evaluation only on the regular season since Hopkins hasn’t played in the postseason. Hopkins wasn’t the reason why the Texans missed the playoffs and he had a great season despite below average quarterback play, so it wouldn’t be right to penalize him by factoring in additional games for the other players.

The purpose of pointing out all these stats and comparisons I guess is two-fold: First to point out how great Hopkins has been over his first two seasons and secondly to caution fans against dismissing a player too soon. Not that the majority of the fan base thought Hopkins was a bum by any means, but listening to talk radio and reading blogs did leave me with the impression that a big chunk of Texans fans felt that Hopkins underperformed and was most likely “just another guy” and not capable of becoming a true No. 1 receiver after watching his rookie season.

We could all use a lesson in patience in regards to how quickly we grade and dismiss young players. By any measure Hopkins has put himself in the conversation for being one of the best young receivers in the game today.

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