If the election were held now and that swing replicated uniformly, Labor would pick as many 10 seats and a comfortable majority.

The poll of 1207 voters was taken from Wednesday to Saturday last week, at the mid-point of the campaign and in a week when the leaders debated each other twice.

The 52-48 two-party result was the same whether those polled were asked how they would direct their preferences, or if preferences were allocated as to how they fell at the last election. Both One Nation and United Australia Party preferences were allocated 47 per cent to Labor and 53 per cent to the Coalition.

While the headline numbers have tightened, more than half those polled, or 52 per cent, believe Labor will win on May 18. One third, or 33 per cent, predict a Coalition victory.

Only half those voting for the Coalition believe Mr Morrison will prevail, while almost three quarters of Labor voters predict a Shorten victory.

Shorten's approvals rising

The poll also shows that since the campaign began, Mr Shorten has made significant gains on Mr Morrison when it comes to personal ratings.


While Mr Morrison continues to lead Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister, his lead has closed from 11 points to 5 points in a month and is the closest it has been since Mr Morrison became leader in August.

He leads Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister by 45 per cent to 40 per cent. It is the first time since the last election that Mr Shorten has had a 40 per cent rating.

In the past month, Mr Shorten's approval rating rose 4 points to 40 per cent and his disapproval rating was unchanged at 51 per cent.

Mr Morrison's approval rating slipped 1 point to 47 per cent while his disapproval rating rose 5 points to 44 per cent.

The Coalition will launch its campaign in Melbourne on Sunday, May 12, in a bid to minimise expected losses in that state and hold on to power.

Labor acknowledged the significance of Queensland to its prospects by launching in Brisbane, where it needs to take some seats.

Two revamped policies


Mr Shorten used Sunday's official campaign launch to announce two new policies but there was no more of the big spending that was the hallmark of a rally the week before in which $6.9 billion was offered over four years for childcare and dental treatment for pensioners.

On Sunday, Mr Shorten promised that employers who hired someone either under 25 or over 65 could deduct 30 per cent of their salary for a year.

The policy, at a cost of $141 million over four years, would apply to companies with annual turnover of less than $10 million, and which have been operating for more than two years. The deduction will be capped at $50,000 and five workers per company.

"This is the fair go at its very finest,'' Mr Shorten said.

The Labor leader also pledged an additional crackdown on multinational tax avoidance, which the ALP forecasts will raise $680 million over the four-year forward estimate period and $2.3 billion over 10 years.

He also sought to burnish his party's economic credentials by releasing research showing Labor's Australian Investment Guarantee – which allows all businesses to immediately deduct 20 per cent of investment in eligible depreciable assets – could create up to 77,000 jobs and increase average annual wages by up to $1500.

The main thrust of the speech was to stress Labor's unity, relative to that of the Coalition, and its "fairness agenda'', which largely involves boosted spending on essential services of health and education, as well as a focus on wages, all funded by tax changes and increases.

No backdown on franking


Mr Shorten was unapologetic about the policy of ending cash refunds for excess franking credits.

"We are not going to keep sending tax cheques worth $6 billion a year to people who are not paying income tax,'' he said to loud applause.

Nor, he said, was Labor scared of taking policy risks on climate change, saying the Coalition's approach was one of "cowardice and chaos'', whereas Labor's was one of "courage and action''.

Mr Shorten claimed the Coalition would try to bring back its company tax cuts for big business as a price of doing a preference swap deal with Clive Palmer's United Australia Party.

"No-one gets something for nothing from Clive Palmer. Tax cuts for big business will be right in the mix,'' he said.

The poll, which has always had a primary vote inconsistent with that of other published polls, has Labor on 33 per cent, the Coalition on 36 per cent, the Greens on 14 per cent, One Nation on 5 per cent, the UAP on 3 per cent and others on 8 per cent.

Labor is emphasising its unity over the past six years as an attribute. At the ALP campaign launch, former Labor leaders Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd and Paul Keating made a joint entrance, while Bob Hawke, who is in ill health, sent a message of goodwill.

Mr Morrison dismissed the unity argument, saying it was not the only reason Labor lost government in 2013.

"Actually, while that played a part, the big reason was it was a terrible government. They wasted money."