In 2009, when a group of AFL and club officials gathered at league headquarters, the concern about Greater Western Sydney wasn’t that it would dominate other clubs. It was quite the reverse.

In these meetings, which would decide how the Giants would be assembled, there was a clear view that the Gold Coast Suns, slated to enter the competition in 2011, were an easier sell and would need less help than the more risky proposition in Sydney’s west.

The AFL then made a philosophical decision which would have enormous consequences for the competition. GWS would be handed significantly more recruiting concessions than Gold Coast, which inhabited a market with SOME Australian football culture.

The “list establishment committee” for the new teams contained club representatives, including chief executives Andrew Ireland (Sydney), and the since departed Ian Robson (Essendon) and Cameron Schwab (Melbourne), veteran football chief Graeme “Gubby” Allan (then Brisbane) and recruiters Stephen Wells (Geelong), Derek Hine (Collingwood) and Brad Lloyd (Fremantle).

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But the AFL, not the clubs, shaped the agenda.

As some who were in the room recalled, David Matthews, who was then the AFL’s head of game development, was one of the fiercest advocates for GWS receiving greater concessions. Of the club officials, it was “Gubby” Allan who pushed hardest for the GWS cause, with Sydney’s Ireland likewise taking the view that the second team from NSW needed extra help.

The chasm between the Giants and Suns has never been larger. Source: News Limited

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There was a fear, as one eyewitness put it, that GWS could be “an absolute disaster” if it didn’t win games.

Matthews would be seconded by the AFL to take over as GWS CEO more than two years later, while Allan was made the club’s first footy boss in 2010. He and Stephen Silvagni would enjoy considerable success in shaping a powerful playing list before Allan’s contentious exit to Collingwood and 12 month suspension.

Today, it is evident that the AFL miscalculated when expanding the competition.

The league loaded up the Giants, plying them with extra picks, a richer academy zone, a larger list and salary cap.

The AFL assumption was based on the reality that Sydney’s west is barren territory for the game.

But what the league — and indeed the clubs and media — didn’t take into account was that, a) GWS would eventually be located much closer to town (in Homebush rather than Blacktown) and, b) that Sydney was becoming a more attractive destination for players than Queensland.

In this eventful post-season, Brett Deledio was happy to join the Giants, who will pay him around $350,000, with Richmond picking up the remainder of his $500,000 salary.

The Suns, meanwhile, have lost Jaeger O’Meara and Dion Prestia and, if Gary Ablett had his druthers, their marquee player would be back at Geelong on a reduced wage.

The Suns, who started one year earlier than GWS, enter the national draft with four top ten picks and are in a partial rebuild. GWS is the clear flag favourite.

Three of the Giants’ No.1 picks, all of whom remain at the club. Picture: Phil Hillyard Source: News Limited

The AFL, clearly worried it has given the Giants too many cards in the recruiting deck, will seek to strip them of picks in the 2017 national draft over the Lachie Whitfield imbroglio.

Gold Coast, as events subsequently confirmed, is a less desirable destination for players than GWS. Most of the Giants actually live close to central Sydney — around Balmain, in the inner west and in the eastern suburbs near the Swans, rather than in the teeming outer west. Ryan Griffen resides on the north shore.

Envious rival clubs say the single greatest difference between what the Giants and Suns received was GWS’s right to sell four prized 17-year-outs (who would be outside the draft) to their competitors. In return for those four teenagers — headed by O’Meara and Melbourne’s Jesse Hogan — the Giants would net 7 additional first round draft picks.

GWS received the following that the Suns did not: 1) two years of access to uncontracted players and to the Northern Territory, rather than one year; 2) larger lists, with up to eight extra spots in years 3-5; 3) a larger salary cap in the first five years (an advantage now removed, prematurely, by the AFL) and 4) the ability to sell those gun 17-year-olds.

In the relevant meetings, the AFL committee believed that the Giants would sell the 17-year-olds for mature players — the clear intent of that rule. But the Giants, who reckon they struggled to land players, gained only first round draft picks instead, in what was a long-term gain.

The upshot was that the Suns, who scored major own goals in recruiting mature players — especially Jared Brennan, Nathan Bock and Nathan Krakouer — would have 5 first round picks since finishing last in their first season (not counting this 2016 draft), whereas GWS would have 14 first rounders in one less year.

The Giants are tipped to take out the 2017 flag. Picture: Phil Hillyard Source: News Corp Australia

The difference in academy talent between GWS and the Suns is likewise vast, given that the Giants have access to the Riverina and border towns such as Albury — at least for now.

GWS also had a lucky break in the initial intake of youngsters from outside the draft, with Jeremy Cameron, Adam Treloar and Dylan Shiel arriving as 17-year-olds. The Suns gained no comparable A graders before their first draft.

As other clubs note, GWS did a superior job in recruiting players from other clubs, landing co-captains Callan Ward and Phil Davis, plus Tom Scully (albeit on ridiculous money) and then bringing in Heath Shaw, Shane Mumford and Griffen.

Another theory of club list managers/recruiters is that the Suns invested too many eggs in the Ablett basket, when they might have picked up two or three players for the price of one, while the Giants benefited from Lance Franklin snubbing them and signing with the Swans.

Had they landed Buddy, the Giants would not have had the money to recruit Mumford and Shaw in that fateful post-season of 2013.

The Giants not only gained experienced players, but they began with more experienced administrators and coaches in Kevin Sheedy and Mark Williams and Allan. When the Suns were established, they appointed a senior coach, head of footy, president and CEO without any experience in those roles.

The game’s expansion, thus, has not gone according to plan. One team is weaker than the AFL expected and running behind schedule, the other is stronger — on the field — than the league intended, to the point that the AFL might need to find a way to hobble it, without crippling it.

The AFL can only hope that this national draft — in which both clubs have excellent hands — will see the belated rising of the eclipsed Suns.