Record turnout expected in Arizona's primary election — and Democrats are thrilled

Dustin Gardiner | The Republic | azcentral.com

Voter turnout in Tuesday's primary election is expected to shatter Arizona's existing record — and early returns suggest Democrats are largely behind the upswing in enthusiasm.

According to the Arizona Secretary of State's Office, at least 837,998 voters had cast early ballots as of Monday afternoon. That's roughly 23 percent of registered voters.

"It's still looking very likely that we will be at or above 1.1 million votes tomorrow," Garrett Archer, senior elections systems analyst for the Arizona Secretary of State's Office, wrote Monday in a post on Twitter.

"If that happens we break raw and percentage turnout records for an Arizona primary."

The state's existing record for turnout in a primary was set in 2010 — a wave year for Republicans. About 30 percent of registered voters, or 933,650 people, cast a ballot that August.

Arizona could easily exceed that turnout if 260,000 people cast a ballot between now and when polls close at 7 p.m. on election day.

MORE: Arizona Election Day: Here's what you need to know

PRIMARY VOTE PROBLEMS? Tell us your story to assist in our investigation

What to watch for Tuesday

Democrats appear to be the driving force behind the uptick in voter participation. Several key numbers to watch:

• Primary turnout for Democrats is already above 2016 levels in 625 precincts, according to the state's forecast. Republicans have exceeded their 2016 turnout in 28 precincts.

• There are still more GOP voters overall, but the gap in voter turnout between the parties is at its lowest since 1994. So far, Republicans have cast about 55 percent of ballots, compared with 44 percent for Democrats.

• Democrats have seen a sharp increase in voter registration. Democrats have added 21,270 voters since March; Republicans added 5,301 during the same period.

Bill Scheel, a Democratic strategist working on campaigns this year, said early ballot returns show the Democratic base is fired up. He said the enthusiasm boost is largely driven by voters' support for the #RedForEd teacher movement to increase school funding.

MORE: 11 key primary races to watch during Tuesday's primary election

“I think this primary turnout is just another indication that this blue wave is still coming across Arizona quite strongly," he said. “It really is an indication that Arizona is on its way back to being a purple state."

An Arizona Republican Party spokeswoman didn't respond to a request for comment Monday afternoon.

Republicans have said a strong economy and federal tax reform legislation that cut costs for many small businesses could boost the party's fortunes for the Nov. 6 general election.

The GOP still has a significant voter-registration advantage in Arizona: 1.26 million voters are Republicans; 1.22 million are independents; 1.11 million are Democrats.

Which way will independent voters go this election? There are as many independent voters as registered Republicans in Arizona. How will they vote in November? It's hard to say.

READ MORE ON THE ELECTION: