Despite hype of El Niño Grande, California rainy season starts with a whimper

Scientists say there’s a 95 percent chance a strong El Niño will hit the Northern Hemisphere over the winter. It might not bring an end to California's four-year drought though. El Niño is a rascal, and it just might trick us this winter.

(Lake McClure on March 24, 2015 in La Grange, California) less Scientists say there’s a 95 percent chance a strong El Niño will hit the Northern Hemisphere over the winter. It might not bring an end to California's four-year drought though. El Niño is a rascal, and it ... more Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images Image 1 of / 9 Caption Close Despite hype of El Niño Grande, California rainy season starts with a whimper 1 / 9 Back to Gallery

Many Californians have already mentally deposited oceans of rainwater into our depleted reservoirs, thanks to the hype surrounding a projected Godzilla El Niño this year. The only problem is that actual deposits haven't really amounted to much just yet.

Bay Area National Weather Service officials released a friendly reminder Monday that we haven't really seen any relief from our drought at this (very early) point in the rainy season. In fact, we are pacing well behind normal yet again.

"Although we are still not to the typical rainy season around the Bay Area, it is worth noting that we are already off to a drier than normal start," Bay Area NWS officials wrote on their local Facebook account. "San Francisco has picked up only 26% of its normal rainfall from June 1st, while Oakland has only received 14% of normal for the same period."

Here are a couple of graphs illustrating the situation:

Rain totals through late October 2015.

Still, NWS officials say these early totals are no need to panic.

"Since it is early in the rain season, we can quickly make up the deficit from just one or two storms," NWS climate observers said.

The first sprinkle in that process is expected Wednesday, when much of the region will get a quarter of an inch or so of the wet stuff. That warning shot has some stores stocking up on rubber boots, plastic sheeting and other essentials for riding out wilder weather.

Another round of rain could be on its way for November 1, but even that may not amount to much.

Wednesday isn't our only rain chance over next 7 days. Look at Sunday night: #cawx pic.twitter.com/o8Wq41MXFB — Paul Deanno (@PaulDeannoKPIX) October 27, 2015

Climatologists have been drawing comparisons between this year's El Niño pattern and the one the Bay Area experienced in 1997-98, when a relatively mild Fall gave way to damaging downpours after the new year.

Forecasters have long pegged Southern and Central California for the heaviest rain in coming months, but with El Niño in the tropical Pacific gaining strength and warm pockets of ocean water expected to add moisture to the atmosphere, federal forecasters have broadened their bullishness over the last few weeks.

While El Niños have historically meant above-average rain in Southern California, only the strongest have correlated with wet weather farther north.

Projections released last week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggest that the Bay Area has anywhere between a 33 and 50 percent chance of increased rainfall this year. The place with the highest likelihood of surpassing normal rainfall isn't Southern California, it's Florida.

El Niño Grande may prove large enough to hit us hard by January, but it's clearly time to to stop counting those droplets before they fall.