Tony Bennett 3-16-14

Virginia and coach Tony Bennett won both the ACC regular season and the tournament. The last 13 ACC teams to do that reached at least the round of 16, and seven made it to the Final Four.

(AP Photo | Gerry Broome)

The tournament brackets are set. The paths of all 68 teams in the NCAA's field of 68 is established. The bickering about who got in and who they were seeded will dissipate soon enough.

Now, though, there are brackets to fill out. And that's what gets the attention of more casual fans (or people who pay attention to college basketball for three weeks out of the year) far more than the who's in/who's out discussions.

So, for entertainment purposes only, here are some trends to keep in mind for the next few weeks:

DO

Send Virginia to the second weekend of the tournament. Since the tournament field expanded to 48 teams in 1980, 14 teams have both won at least a share of the ACC regular-season title and claimed the ACC tournament. The first 13 all reached at least the round of 16, with four claiming national titles and seven getting to the Final Four. Virginia pulled off the double this year, and the Cavaliers seem unlikely to break from that trend.

DON'T

Undersell Syracuse. Yes, the Orange could get blasted by Kansas and will have worlds of trouble against Florida. But it opens the tournament in Buffalo, and is 8-1 all-time within the confines of the Empire State. The lone loss was to David Robinson and Navy in the Carrier Dome in 1986. Since then? Opening weekend sweeps in 1987 (Syracuse) and 2010 (Buffalo) and two wins in a regional in Albany in 2003.

DO

Pick Duke to win twice in Raleigh. Just as Syracuse does exceptional work in the state of New York in the NCAA tournament, so do the Blue Devils when they're plunked down in North Carolina. Duke is 26-3 all-time under coach Mike Krzyzewski in NCAA tournament games played in the Tar Heel State.

The losses? The 1994 national title game to Arkansas (Charlotte), the 1997 round of 32 to Providence (Charlotte) and the 2012 round of 64 against Lehigh (Greensboro). That recent blip aside, look for the Blue Devils to reach the second weekend.

DON'T

Ever pick against Tom Izzo in the second game at a site. Seriously. Never do it. Michigan State is a combined 18-3 in the round of 32, the Elite Eight and the national title game under Izzo. The losses came in the 2003 regional finals (to T.J. Ford and Texas), the 2007 round of 32 (against North Carolina) and the 2009 title game (also against North Carolina).

Do not pick Harvard to beat Michigan State. Do not pick Iowa State or Villanova to beat Michigan State. It's OK to go with Virginia in the round of 16, but Izzo's preparation during a short turnaround is sublime. It's foolish to think that will change any time soon.

DO

Pick at least one team seeded lower than fourth to make the Final Four. Each of the last four Final Fours has featured at least one team seeded fourth or below, with nine such teams accounting for the 16 semifinal slots since 2009. The best candidate to continue this trend is clearly Louisville, the No. 4 seed in the Midwest bracket. Other possibilities: Michigan State (No. 4 in the East), Virginia Commonwealth (No. 5 in the South) and Oklahoma State (No. 9 in the West).

DON'T

Get cute and underestimate the No. 1 overall seed. Seriously, don't pick Florida to get knocked out early. It rarely happens with the top team in the field.

Here are the results for the top overall seed in the last nine tournaments: Runner-up (2005 Illinois), round of 16 (2006 Duke), champion (2007 Florida), runner-up (2008 Memphis), regional final (2009 Louisville), round of 32 (2010 Kansas), round of 16 (2011 Ohio State), champion (2012 Kentucky) and champion (2013 Louisville). The Gators should be safe through the first weekend, and probably longer.

DO

Go with one No. 13 seed to upset a No. 4 seed. There have been nine No. 13 seeds to advance to the round of 32 in the last nine tournaments, and one in all but one tournament in that span (the extremely chalky 2007 event is the exception).

Those No. 13 seeds: 2005 Vermont, 2006 Bradley, 2008 San Diego and Siena, 2009 Cleveland State, 2010 Murray State, 2011 Morehead State, 2012 Ohio and 2013 La Salle. The most likely candidates to be an unlucky 13 for a No. 4 seed? Tulsa (against UCLA) and New Mexico State (against San Diego State).

DON'T

Bother with a No. 16 seed. Everyone keeps waiting for a No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed. And waiting. And waiting. It'll happen someday, but 1s are 116-0 against 16s entering the 30th tournament since the field expanded to 64. Let someone else throw darts; advance all the top seeds into the first weekend and move on from there.

DO

Trust Sean Miller (and, by extension, Arizona). Miller is 11-6 as a head coach in the NCAA tournament, his teams have never lost to a team with a worse seed and he's 5-1 in opening games (with the loss coming with 2006 Xavier, a No. 14 seed as the surprise winner of the Atlantic 10). The latter streak will surely continue against Weber State, and Arizona has an excellent shot at a deep run if it can handle Gonzaga or Oklahoma State in the round of 32.

DON'T

Trust Steve Alford (and, by extension, UCLA). You can never take away the Sweet 16 that then-Southwest Missouri State reached in 1999 under Alford. But in stops at Iowa and New Mexico, his teams owned a 3-6 tournament record with two upset losses in 3/14 games (2006 against Northwestern State while at Iowa, and 2013 against Harvard while at New Mexico). His postseason record should cause some pause, even with UCLA coming off a Pac-12 title.

DO

Pick a play-in winner to reach the round of 32. From Virginia Commonwealth in 2011 to South Florida in 2012 to La Salle a season ago, somebody shipped to Dayton has gone on to win twice more (and VCU went on to the Final Four). Tennessee could easily knock off Massachusetts, and Saint Louis would be vulnerable to either N.C. State or Xavier.

DON'T

Get caught chasing a team a year late. This goes for power conference teams like Michigan, top seeds like Wichita State and one-bid darlings like Harvard. Not everyone can be like Butler and make deeper-than-expected runs in consecutive seasons. All three of those teams are talented and capable, but it will be difficult for all of them to match their success from last season.

DO

Pick Ohio State to win at least once. Buckeyes coach Thad Matta is 9-1 all-time in round of 64 games, and it took a gargantuan effort from Siena (remember Bill Raftery's classic "ONIONS! Double order!" call?) to knock off Ohio State that night. It's pure coincidence, but that game was played in Dayton; the Buckeyes' opponent in this year's tournament opener? Dayton.

DON’T

Pick Brigham Young to win at least once. Guard Kyle Collinsworth's ACL tear didn't keep the Cougars out of the field of 68, but it will hamper them now that they're in. Brigham Young's had a week to figure out how to replace its No. 2 scorer, and that's a tough task at this time of year. Oregon can be erratic, but it should be able to oust the Cougars in the opener for both teams.

DO

Throw out the history book when it comes to Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have never — EVER — won an NCAA tournament game. They are 0-6, most notably falling to Xavier as a No. 3 seed in 1991 and to Penn as a No. 6 seed in 1994. But Nebraska hasn't reached the tournament since 1998, and it has played quite well over the last eight weeks. A victory over Baylor and perhaps even Creighton is attainable.

DON'T

Throw out the history book when it comes to New Mexico. Almost inexplicably, the Lobos have never won consecutive games in the NCAA tournament. New Mexico made it to the round of 32 in both 2010 and 2012, but stumbled once it got there both times. Last year, of course, the Lobos lost as a No. 3 seed to Harvard in their first game. It's OK to pick New Mexico to knock off Stanford, but this program's ceiling hasn't been any higher than that.