(CNN) The eyes of the national media -- and national donors -- are on the June 20 special election runoff in Georgia's 6th district between Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel. But a week earlier, Virginia Democrats will choose their party's gubernatorial nominee -- a primary race that may ultimately tell us more about the national playing field and the state of the Democratic party than the contest in Georgia or anywhere else.

At root, the race in Virginia mirrors the unfinished fight of the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries between the pragmatic establishment and the ideological left. In 2016, that was Hillary Clinton versus Bernie Sanders. In 2017, it's Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam versus former Rep. Tom Perriello.

Northam started the race with a clear headstart -- financially and organizationally. As the sitting lieutenant governor, he had much of the backing of the party establishment; Terry McAuliffe, the sitting governor, Tim Kaine, the last governor and now a senator, and Mark Herring, the Commonwealth's Attorney General all endorsed Northam last year.

That trio of endorsements was meant to be a show of force that closed out the possibility of a Perriello candidacy -- or a run by anyone else.

But as we saw in the Clinton-Sanders fight, the establishment's ability to dictate its wishes to its base is very, very limited. Perriello ran relentlessly to Northam's left, casting himself as the candidate of the Sanders and Elizabeth Warren wing of the party.

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