Poll: Rick Perry loses the tea party

The new Washington Post/ABC News poll confirms what the Florida straw poll showed last month: Rick Perry is bleeding support from activist conservatives.

In the national survey, Perry’s share of the GOP primary vote has fallen to 16 percent – a tie with Herman Cain and 9 points behind Mitt Romney, who draws support from a quarter of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.


Ron Paul is in fourth place, with 11 percent, followed by Michele Bachmann and Newt Gingrich tied at 7 percent. Rick Santorum takes 2 percent and Jon Huntsman takes half that.

The apparent explanation for Perry’s decline is what you would expect: immigration and debates. Dan Balz and Jon Cohen:

Perry’s support for the Texas policy of providing in-state tuition to the children of illegal immigrants appears to be a significant problem in the GOP race. About two-thirds of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who backs such a policy. Among tea party supporters, nearly eight in 10 say this position is a negative factor. … In early September, Perry had a 3-to-1 advantage over any other candidate among those “strongly” backing the tea party, but his supported has plummeted from 45 percent to 10 percent in this group. Among all conservatives, Perry’s support has been sliced in half, from 39 to 19 percent. Some of his decline may stem from shaky debate showings: A majority of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents who have watched recent debates say the more they hear about Perry, the less they like him.

It’s still too soon to write Perry’s political obituary. His 16 percent of the vote still places him within striking distance of Mitt Romney, whose base of support has not grown beyond the mid-20 percent range despite having had one of the best months of his campaign.

But Romney’s plan for handling Perry has long been to stay focused on his own strengths – on the economy and experience – and chip away at Perry’s credibility on the right. And that’s pretty much what’s happened, as Romney now beats Perry by wide margins on the Post/ABC questions on experience and electability.