A Victory Map for Gary Johnson Supporters

Each 1 convert 1.8

Many Governor Johnson supporters have seen a map where a win in New Mexico keeps Clinton and Trump from winning an Electoral College majority. As someone who wants a Gary Johnson |Bill Weld administration, that map sets a terrible tone since it may lead Johnson voters outside of New Mexico to think their vote doesn’t matter.

Johnson Victory — What Does it Take?

What do you think it would it take for a Johnson victory? Obviously, some people who currently lean towards Clinton or Trump would need to vote for Gary Johnson. Would each Johnson supporter on average have to convert 2, 3, or 4 people? My first guess was 3 people, what’s yours?

I based my analysis on the following:

* Washington Post poll of 74,000 voters conducted in August with state-by-state results.

* Analysis of polls from Real Clear Politics that show Johnson and Stein are drawing 38% from Clinton, 32% from Trump, and 30% from Other. The ratio of Clinton to Trump is 54% — 46%.

* The Quinnipiac poll of Sep 14 reveals historical voter dissatisfaction with both major party candidates. Among Clinton voters, 54% say they mainly are voting against Trump. Among Trump voters, 66% say they mainly are voting against Clinton. These voters can be swayed to a different candidate.

A Victory Map (1 to 1.8)

I was surprised to discover that Governor Johnson wins when each Johnson supporter converts 1.8 people on average by November 8. Gary wins with 286 electoral votes from 30 states: Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin (Image, Interactive Map)

Victory Map (1:1.8)

I hope this victory map gives “extra juice” to Johnson supporters across the country. There are 30 states in play where your fervor for Liberty and smaller government can make a difference.

A 12th Amendment Map (1 to 1)

To prevent a Clinton or Trump victory and send the selection of President/VP to Congress, every Johnson voter needs to convert one Clinton or Trump voter on average by November 8. In this case Johnson wins 46 electoral votes from the following 8 states: Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Maine, New Mexico, South Dakota, Utah, Washington (Image, Interactive Map)

12 Amendment Map (1:1)

Strategy

Here’s a strategic message for Johnson supporters on social media, you aren’t going to convert any Clinton or Trump supporters on the pro-Johnson areas. You may meet some undecided voters but you’ll also waste time and joust with misguided Trumpeteers and paid Clinton agents. If you want to see either of these maps become a reality, you’ve got to engage with people on neutral social media ground.

Tactics

I’m drafting a follow-on post for how Johnson voters can convert Clinton and Trump supporters. Obviously the Johnson | Weld platform points that appeal to a Clinton supporter are different than those that work for a Trump supporter. If you’ve got any ideas on that topic, please enter a comment or Tweet me.