SPFL Premiership 2015/16 Preview



If we’re all honest with ourselves, we’ll admit this: last season was pretty great. Aberdeen made it interesting at the top all season long, Dundee United and Inverness gave involving stories all season long. We had the most fun a Premiership playoff could ever give and we had some damned good football with it.



You could say I’m overly positive and pushing Scottish Football too much, but it’s true. Compared to the preceding two seasons, won by a pedestrian Celtic side with the most interesting thing to happen being Hibs imploding in ever more spectacular fashion, last season was brilliant. And we’ve seen Aberdeen bolster their personnel, an imperious Hearts side join the Premiership and Celtic not lose their best players for the third summer in a row. How could you possibly get more excited?

Well, I’ve got one message for you: Stop.

Because I can put my neck on the line and honestly say that all that competitive fun and games we had last season isn’t going to happen again.

But why? We have all the right ingredients. We have fans excited. We have better footballers in the league than we have had in the past five years. So what’s wrong?

Unlike last season, where the race at the bottom was wide open and the road was clear for a side to break from the pack and challenge Celtic, this season, the league is very clearly divided into three distinct echelons of four. There is the top four - Celtic, Aberdeen, Hearts and Dundee United. There are the middle four floating around the edge of the top six - Dundee, St Johnstone, Inverness and Motherwell - and finally the bottom four of Ross County, Partick Thistle, Hamilton Accies and Kilmarnock. The gap between each echelon is a real gulf in class and the gap between the top and bottom of each echelon is large also.

That top echelon is, not surprisingly, topped by Celtic. Many will expect Aberdeen to seriously challenge Celtic, but the simple fact is that they won’t. With the signing of Nadir Ciftci, they have an option up front aside from Leigh Griffiths with two caveats - firstly, that plan A isn’t working and secondly, that Ciftci has his head on straight. Many would say, with evidence, that Deila sorted out Leigh Griffiths so why can’t he do the same. To counter, there is the fact that Leigh Griffiths’ misdemeanours pale in comparison to Ciftci’s bites, kicks and manhandling of referee’s. Griffiths is a reformed Ned, Ciftci has, at times, acted like little more than a petulant child and a raw thug, albeit one who will naturally link well with Gary Mackay-Steven and Stuart Armstrong.

The fact is that, unlike last season, Celtic are going to hit the ground running and not drop 10 points in their first 8 games like last season. Having lost Jason Denayer and replaced him with Dedryck Boyata and also replaced Adam Matthews with Saidy Janko, Celtic have not just done their business early for the first transfer window in recent memory, they have also managed to look far more settled for doing it. The Celtic of the back end of last season with Johansen, GMS and Armstrong and also with Kris Commons and even James Forrest mucking in up front were a very good football team and, as even some of Celtic’s most ardent critics would admit, a good watch. That side has not gotten any weaker over the summer and, with even transfer talk about Virgil Van Dijk seemingly going a bit quiet, Celtic are a side who have had a good summer to bond and get better. It was their weak start last season that gave Aberdeen a sniff - when they clicked, they put 17 points between themselves and the Dons in a few weeks. A Celtic that clicks from day one will do the same and more.

It leaves second place wide open, though. The rest of our top echelon of Aberdeen, Hearts and Dundee United all come in from different angles. We have Aberdeen who proved last season that they were a cut above, Hearts who are true dark horses after dominating the Championship but being completely untested against Premiership sides and we have Dundee United who have managed to underachieve consistently but always have the ability in the side for this to be their year in the sun.

To focus on Dundee United first, this is the true test of Jackie McNamara’s mettle. Many, myself included, thought his association with the club would end this summer after a truly dismal second half of the season all but signed his death warrant. Yet here we stand with him still at the club, albeit minus Nadir Ciftci. The manner in which the side fell to pieces and into acrimony after the departures of Gary Mackay-Steven and Stuart Armstrong was scary but there were extenuating factors and it was certainly difficult to pick themselves back up from the floor after their month of Celtic.

It’d be very easy to look at that run of form from February onwards and make the assumption that there isn’t much to be optimistic about, but that would be too simplistic. McNamara was forced to change his entire set up mid season thanks to sales whereas now, with Ciftci already gone, he has time and opportunity to find a settled squad safe in the knowledge that there probably won’t be any major sales until next summer. And it’s not as if there isn’t plenty of talent at the club. An attacking set up chosen from Dow, Erskine, Muirhead, Spittal, Telfer and Aidan Connolly (who will be a star) is something most clubs will be envious of before you get into the next next generation like Ali Coote. They still look a little light at the back and there is still debate over what John Souttar’s best position really is, considering his positive cameos in midfield towards the end of the season but they are still better than most sides in the division.

But, the fact remains that the real test is on the manager. Dundee United have the quality to get into Europe year in, year out but have failed to do so. Three consecutive McNamara seasons with three consecutive failures to get into Europe will surely be the end of him. Dundee United have gradually obtained a (well-deserved) reputation for losing their heads when it matters and cutting out that behaviour while also growing into a new look, more youthful team that must surely qualify for Europe for McNamara to keep his job - after failure in the Scottish Cup Final vs St Johnstone and a total collapse last season, this year he has to deliver.

When it comes to delivering, Derek McInnes can certainly say he does with his Aberdeen side having given Celtic a challenge last season comparable to what Rangers would have pre-2012 in many seasons. Looking for weak spots in the side is difficult and the addition of Graeme Shinnie brings a lot to them. So why will they not get as close to Celtic as last season?

There are two key reasons - the first is that Celtic are not going to start as slowly as last season, so there will be far less margin for error. Secondly, Aberdeen went three months unbeaten last season and it’s hardly unreasonable to say confidently that they won’t repeat that feat this time around. Considering those two factors are why they got within 15 points of Celtic, we can safely say that, as they were both pretty unique, that that gap will widen. If it closes, then that will be a pretty incredible feat.

And there is cause for concern. 6 months on and Kenny McLean is still nowhere near his St Mirren best and while there is clearly a very good player there and no reason why he shouldn’t reach the heights, McInnes has tried to tinker with his formula to get the best out of him, which has been to the detriment of the side as a whole and it’s hard to dispute that Aberdeen started to go off the boil when McLean was brought into the first team. The goalkeeping situation appears to not have improved with Scott Brown having to now play second fiddle to Liverpool loanee Danny Ward. They may well have solved the left back problem, but the Kenny McLean problem could prove to be far more harmful if it’s his form doesn’t sort itself soon. Even so, they could still be the second best side in the league.

I say “could” because there is the other member of this top tier to mention - Hearts.

Providing a good analysis of where Hearts will end up is a thankless task. Normally, when a side comes up to the top tier, there’s a line of form you can draw through them to make an educated guess like we could with Dundee and Hamilton last season. However, for Hearts, they got relegated, formed an entirely new side under an entirely new set up and ethos and their line of form is simply that they were better than the sides in the Championship but worse than Celtic, which only leaves about 11 positions that they could possibly fill because they didn’t face any other Premiership sides than Celtic.

Like I said, a thankless task.

So we can only go off what we do know - Hearts demolished everyone in the Championship, only bothering to appear vulnerable long after the title had been wrapped up. That lead may have been deceptive as Hibs, who were clearly the second best side in the league, only started their recovery process in October but few would argue that Hearts were a cut above in their consistency and ruthlessness. If we’re honest, they were a Premiership side playing Championship teams. Now, the fights are a bit fairer.

And what exactly does that mean? It’s hard to doubt that Hearts are a cut above those at the bottom end of the league, but against a resolute, well drilled outfit like Inverness or St Johnstone? Or against a side like Aberdeen or Dundee United? Well, those will be very interesting games.

Hearts are a better side than even last season, extraordinary as that was. Pallardo has settled into the side after a brief settling in period, Juanma and Gavin Reilly give them a more effective option up front than El Hassnaoui and maybe even Genero Zeefuik and, you know, Juwon Oshaniwa, a Nigerian international that was linked with Celtic has joined the Neilson regime. This is undoubtedly a smart side but with one or two doubts. Firstly, how will they deal with not having things their own way. Unlike last season, Hearts will lose games. They will have dodgy runs. They will wobble at times. In 10 weeks of Premiership football, they will be tested more severely and put under harder pressure than they were at any point during their 10 months in the Championship. The second challenge is the step up itself - just how will players who had to go through the trauma of the relegation season like Callum Paterson and Sam Nicholson react? Will it be their imperious Championship form or their less imperious form of two seasons ago?

As much as we simply don’t know, Hearts have to be in this top echelon. They don’t have superstar players, but they do have a very solid, hard-working team ethic, much like, say, a St Johnstone, but with better players across the pitch. If we consider the Saints as a solid consistent top six benchmark and also appreciate that Hearts simply have better players, then Hearts must be up there by default. If things go right for them, they could easily be second. But the Top 4 is, at least, fairly assured.

Below this come a closely matched group of sides whose principal aim is to just get into the top six and then, if one of the top sides disappoint (I’m looking at you, Dundee United), to take advantage and get into Europe.

Two of those start this season already in Europe. Inverness were a comfortable third last season but, having had significant departures over the summer, it is unlikely that such a feat will be repeated this season. In losing Marley Watkins and Graeme Shinnie, they have lost two of the top ten players in the entire league last season and without Billy McKay or his replacement Edward Ofere, it is hard to see exactly where much of the side’s attacking thrust comes from. In essence, they are in a similar position to St Johnstone a season ago having lost Stevie May - they are likely to go from a solid side with some exciting attacking outlets to a simply solid side. A lot of responsibility will be placed on Ryan Christie to make up for the loss of Watkins to actually drive the side forward and create chances for new signing Dani Lopez.

It’s simply difficult to see Inverness as anything other than considerably weaker than the side that won the cup last season. This doesn’t make them a weak side, however. They will still be experienced and resolute through the centre, and that should be enough to keep them in the top six or, at least, out of any trouble at the bottom of the table.

One side who had more than their fair share of trouble at the bottom last season were Motherwell. I’ll admit to some umming and ahhing over whether their aim should be top six or just to stay up. The difficulty in assessing Motherwell lies in their inconsistency. Last season had some truly dismal results in it, but on the occasions that Ian Baraclough got the attacking set up right and everything clicked, they were breathtaking as best evidenced by the relegation playoff game where they put Rangers to the sword. If that Motherwell turns up for most of the season, then they will be safe and challenging in the top six.

The issue is that we all know that Motherwell will be, like last season, a fleeting occurrence. But there are some reasons to be positive. A side that just a couple of weeks ago had lost more or less their entire attack have dragged Lionel Ainsworth back into the club and in bringing in Louis Moult, who was prolific at Wrexham, they have a striker who is no worse than a John Sutton-type which they have lost, plus there is the possibility of Scott McDonald returning also. Losing Lee Erwin is a real detriment but if Motherwell can keep it together and play near their peak on a consistent basis, they will have a very good season. Their downfall last year was the period before Ian Baraclough - now they’ve adjusted to his style and now they aren’t in a race to avoid relegation against a Ross County who magically became unbeatable, there is no reason to expect them to be in deep trouble this season, at least not now they’ve made the signings and extended the contracts of the players they needed most. Putting them at this level above the relegation race reflects the difference in players like Lionel Ainsworth and Marvin Johnson between those lower down.

Motherwell’s antithesis is undoubtedly St Johnstone. Where Motherwell excelled at being inconsistent, St Johnstone plodded along into fourth place. It’s very easy to be cynical about a side who managed to get to 4th place in the league and into Europe having scored less than a goal a game in the league all season (the only team other than St Mirren to do that), but they also conceded less than a goal a game in the league all season (and only Celtic and Aberdeen did that). And if you wanted a personification of the word “Dour” you would likely draw a portrait of Tommy Wright.

So while many would want him to go about football a different way, it’s hard to deny that Tommy Wright is one of the most effective managers around. And, along with that, it is fair to say that thinking of St Johnstone as dull and boring is unfair. St Johnstone didn’t score less than a goal a game because they were in any way a bad side, they did it because they sold their best striker and couldn’t replace him. Much as they only conceded under a goal a game not because they sat back, but because they have a settled defensive line up that has the quality to not give up easy goals and that they have the strength in depth to rotate and bring through young players as evidenced by picking up Brad McKay and Joe Shaughnessy. Outside Aberdeen and Celtic, no side is built on stronger foundations and no side has looked to keep that going in the future more than St Johnstone. That they slip into this second echelon isn’t a reflection that they are weaker or more lacking in quality than last season, it’s a reflection that Hearts are there and are good.

St Johnstone are potentially better than last season. While John Sutton, at his age, is no upgrade on Brian Graham, having a fit Steven McLean with a full pre-season behind him definitely is. Combine that with the emerging Chris Kane, who will play more of a role than last season, and you’ve the foundations of a good attack. But, ultimately, we all know what to expect - a team that will be very tough to beat for any opposition, that will be well prepared and well drilled for every game and that will end in the top six thanks to their sheer consistency meaning they pick up more points than their less reliable competitors.

Reliability was not exactly Dundee’s strong point last season, best exemplified by the trading of spankings that occurred in Dundee Derbies last season. However, Paul Hartley, in guiding them into the top six added another line to an achievement list expanding even faster than his waistline. More than anything, though, they enter this season on the promise of one thing - the reunion of Kane Hemmings and Greg Stewart.

Amazing as it seems now, but 12 months ago, most fans would have told you that it was Hemmings who was the better prospect as, more often than not, he was the senior player of the two at Cowdenbeath and his performances vs Dunfermline in the playoff final showed his quality. For Hartley, then, reuniting the two was a no brainer considering that Dundee, aside for David Clarkson’s 8 game streak, weren’t blessed with striking talent last season (Tankulic sends shudders down spines) so Hemmings is a low risk bet. While he hasn’t played at this level before, feeding off Greg Stewart who, if he is as good as last season, is due a Scotland call up will present plenty of chances. Convert those and then Dundee have a 20 goal striker on their hands. If he doesn’t, then Rory Loy will as he makes his long overdue bow at Premiership level. Add in Julen Extabeguren at the back and you have the makings of a very formidable side.

There are doubts - Julen isn’t proven at this level, although considering how he strolled at East Fife should take it in his stride, the central midfield looks weaker than the rest of the side, as do the full back areas and, of course, the worrying results after the split where the players checked out on holiday a month early and got multiple hidings. As such, while it’d be foolish to write Dundee off, it’d likely be even more foolish to put any money on them getting in the top six because they would be prime candidates to be seventh and falling victim to St Johnstone’s methodical consistency compared to Dundee’s more fluctuating fortunes.

Either way, it’s another season where the race for the top six will be a particularly engaging ones as we have two less consistent sides which are fun to watch (Dundee and Motherwell) going up against a good Inverness side shorn of players and the pragmatism of Tommy Wright’s St Johnstone. I would be loathe to bet against St Johnstone making it into the top six simply because Tommy Wright has proven himself to be such a good manager, even if there is the potential for, much like Motherwell last season, the time where their low budget finally catches them out. I doubt it will be this year though. I would also bet against Motherwell making it simply because they do have a lot of ground to catch the others up on, which leaves that final place poised between Inverness and Dundee and, ultimately, that’s probably what we’d want.

We then come to the bottom four. Two years into the relegation play off system and the one thing we can say for sure is that weird things happen in the playoffs. Just think - in two seasons we have seen Hibs throw away a two goal cushion from the first leg to lose at Easter Road to Hamilton Accies on penalties and we have seen an unfancied Motherwell demolish Rangers over two legs and make sure that the last image of the entirety of last season would be the indelible mark of Bilel Moshni’s fist on Lee Erwin’s face. Credit the SPFL, if the point of the playoff was to have excitement and intrigue added to the end of the season, then it’s delivered in spades. And this season, with Hibs and Rangers still in the Championship, 11th place will still be perceived as if it’s a near guarantee of relegation for whichever side is in that spot.

This year, however, it’s a little bit more clear cut than it was 12 months ago as to who will be occupying the bottom of the table. This set of four may include Partick Thistle and Ross County but, for various reasons, they will both more than fancy their chances of staying up and doing it comfortably. Which leaves Hamilton and Kilmarnock squabbling over the trapdoor.

Partick Thistle will, rightly, expect to be fairly safe. Few teams have such a settled line up and, even without the mercurial Kallum Higginbotham, they still possess enough firepower to do what it is that Partick Thistle always seem to do - lose a few then win a couple - and that has always been enough.

They are run on the second smallest budget in the league (Hamilton are the only team on less but that may well have actually changed over the summer) and the biggest signing of their summer has been their new sponsorship deal which, although it came along with the demonic figure of new mascot Kingsley, provides a boost to their finances which really matters to the club considering how cheaply they are run. What else matters is goals and, while they may not have Lyle Taylor any more, Kris Doolan has more than earned the opportunity to have a season as undisputed number one striker at the club and their only (human) signing of the summer so far, David Amoo, is good enough to provide danger from the right to create chances. Alan Archibald is still the well regarded manager who plays football the right way and, much as we look at St Johnstone and consider them a side who will always do enough, it’s difficult not to look at Thistle the same way. They will get the odd result here and there that will make the difference between them and the sides below them but they won’t do much else than that, for financial reasons more than anything.

The only danger on the horizon right now is falling into the same trap St Mirren did which is failing to recognise that a manager who is always able to get the side to do just enough to stay up might also be a manager who is also getting the most out of his side. And, put simply, there are just worse teams in the league than them.

Ross County could be one of those. The Ross County of the first half of last season were dire. The Ross County of the second half, once Jim McIntyre had done what he wanted to in the transfer window, were brilliant. Was that just an upswing in form or is that permanent - that’s the real question mark hanging over them. McIntyre has moved in the market this summer as well, with the big signing being that of Scott Fox from Partick Thistle, which is a definite upgrade from Mark Brown and Antonio Reguero.

But the key signings have been in simply keeping the side from the back end of last season together. McIntyre transformed Liam Boyce physically into a fit, hardworking and less chunky player - he and Craig Curran will be doing all the work to carry Brian Graham to allow him to simply poach. Keeping Raffaele De Vita means they have kept a player whose production in goals and assists turned them around last year. With good young talents in Jamie Reckord and Tony Dingwall and adding in the experience of Ricky Foster (if he can turn around the sharp decline he had at Rangers) means they look a formidable prospect.

The reason they belong in the bottom four rather than challenging for the top six is simply a slight lack in player quality. There’s not a Ryan Christie, a Lionel Ainsworth or a Greg Stewart at the club and that’s what separates Ross County at the moment from being a side surviving and a side who could actually push for the top six. If Jim McIntyre can translate their late season form into a permanent level of performance, however, that opinion will have to change.

When it comes to trying to pin a team down on late season form, Hamilton Accies would be relegation favourites and that it’s likely to be a glorious bunfight between them and Kilmarnock for the season is quite predictable. The incredible start they had under Alex Neil was reversed completely by the drop off under Martin Canning before a couple of more positive results right at the end of the season.

As such, where do Accies lie? Are they the top class side Alex Neil got to perform so well or are they the side who struggled under Martin Canning? And the answer is…

A little of column A and a little of column B. Alex Neil is clearly a brilliant manager and he took Tony Andreu, who scored so many in that early run, with him for a transfer donation…sorry, fee of £1m. Martin Canning isn’t as bad as the rest of the season suggested. Their nadir was Canning’s ridiculous sending off but there were green shoots of recovery at the end. After all, it’s not as if they don’t have some quality players. Dougie Imrie will do his now traditional act of playing well only when the sun shines, but Ali Crawford is growing into the sort of dangerous attacking midfielder that Andreu was and, in signing Christian Nade, they have a player who, while not about to produce 20 goals a season, will hold the ball up for the more talented players around him to hurt teams. He is nothing if not an immovable object for others to buzz around and new Spanish striker Salva Chamorro has a decent scoring record in the Spanish lower leagues.

But these aren’t season changing benefits. Martin Canning is clearly better than his bizarro honeymoon period would suggest, but he isn’t the sort who could raise Hamilton back to the top nor could he raise Norwich to the EPL. You hate to sound harsh about a new manager, but he is very much in the Gary Teale position where he seems nice enough but has an unenviable task. Teale took a side who were dead and buried to relegation, Canning took over a side who could only go downwards in trajectory and, compared to their competitors, their seems less likelihood that that decline will be punctuated by positive results.

Which leaves Kilmarnock.

After saying they were certainties for relegation last season, I must admit to having had a bit of trepidation before being about to say the same for this season. After all, once bitten, twice shy and all that.

However, to look at the evidence, it’s difficult to come to any other conclusion than to say that, one way or another, Killie will occupy one of the bottom two places this season. Every measure one would use to estimate the likelihood is going against them.

Last season, Killie escaped relegation due to two runs of form in the season - once under Allan Johnston and once as Gary Locke’s honeymoon period - that look more and more like a fluke than anything. They’ve lost first team players - Pascali, Chantler, Eremenko and Lee Miller were all regulars last year - and they’ve replaced them with absolute dreck.

And it’s those signings that have rightly drawn the most ire. Jamie McDonald is a good keeper but is a solution to a problem that didn’t exist. Lee McCulloch has gone on presumably high wages to not play and just learn coaching. Making a central midfield partnership of Jamie Hammill and Scott Robinson reunites the midfield Gary Locke had at Hearts and got relegated (and is horribly agricultural). Kallum Higginbotham is a good signing as he will do a lot of running but now, sans Eremenko, there isn’t anyone to give him any service and it’s actually difficult to see where he fits into the side. As for Kris Boyd, his form last season was truly dismal and, if that continues, it’s hard to see what he offers the side aside from a particularly novel way to waste money.

Looking at the prospect of a 4-2-3-1 with the 2-3-1 being Hammill, Robinson, Obadeyi, Highinbotham, Magennis and Boyd, you can see why they have to be in trouble because, while that’s undoubtedly a hard working and powerful line up, it’s totally reliant on Kallum Higginbotham creating everything and collecting knockdowns, which is almost exactly the service he isn’t going to thrive on. So, with a main goalscorer who can’t score, a main creative thrust who won’t see enough of the ball, a defence that had issues last season, is down their most influential centre back and has downgraded at left back and a central midfield that will spend plenty of time suspended, then it’s clear that you have to reserve the bottom spot for Killie.

There are a couple of positives, however. Firstly, Killie have been this bad for a couple of seasons and have become experts at circling the abyss without ever actually going down. Secondly, if you want wide target men, which Killie surely will utilise this season, you would want Obadeyi and Magennis as them owing to their sheer size and both could be accurately described as a proper unit. Put against a side that is filled with smaller players or are a bit light (not that there are many), then Killie could dominate. They also do have young talents they can develop like Lee Ashcroft and Greg Kiltie, and it’s Gary Locke’s talent at that that helped get him the job. But that surely won’t help them this season where, unlike the last two seasons, you simply can’t see there being a team that much worse than them to give them another reprieve.

So there it is. The 2015/16 Premiership. It’s a season where the gaps between the best and the rest have grown and where you’d be hard pressed to expect much in the way of competition at either the top of the bottom. But we’ve many things better than last season already.

We have a full season where Celtic will be operating in the scintillating manner they did when the team and Deila finally clicked.

We have a season where Aberdeen have added real quality to a side that had already proven themselves to be by far the best of the rest.

We have a season where we have a Hearts side that rightly will have come up from the Championship expecting to be in the mix straight away.

We have a season where Greg Stewart is reunited with his most prolific partner.

We have a season where managers who made waves like Ian Baraclough and Jim McIntyre have a full summer and a full setup to show us what they are really capable of without the pressure of imminent relegation.

We have another season where we don’t have Rangers so our cynicism can be held back for at least one more year.

So we have a season where, even though the table won’t be tighter, the talent will shine brighter.

And that’s all we can ask for.