Mike Bloomberg holds 7-point lead on Trump in Michigan, poll shows

WASHINGTON – Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg is running an atypical campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, avoiding the early voting states and instead pouring millions into TV ads and hiring staff in other places.

A new poll indicates it may be working in Michigan.

Bloomberg has opened a 7-point lead in a head-to-head matchup with President Donald Trump in the state, according to a poll released Wednesday by EPIC-MRA of Lansing that shows the former mayor gaining ground with independents, moderates and other key constituencies.

His 49%-42% lead is the largest among all the Democrats, though 9% remain undecided with voting for the Democratic nomination getting underway in Iowa on Feb. 3. Michigan's primary is March 10.

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump 50%-44% and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont holds a 50%-45% lead on the president in the survey, for which 600 likely voters were polled between Thursday and Sunday.

The poll, which has a margin of error of 4 percentage points, also shows South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg with a 47%-43% lead on Trump and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts edging the president 48%-45%.

It’s far from certain that Bloomberg, a late entrant in the race, can win the Democratic nomination, especially if one of the other candidates gets on a roll and wins several of the earlier caucuses or primaries. At present, he is fifth in the RealClearPolitics.com average of national polls for the Democratic nomination, with about 6% of those polled nationally supporting him, and well behind Biden (27%), Sanders (19%) and the other leaders.

But the new poll — which was not commissioned by the Free Press but was released to it and out-state media partners exclusively — indicates that Bloomberg is striking a chord with some voters who may have objections to Trump but find some of the other Democrats too liberal for their tastes.

“Part of it is, people still want a change,” said Susan, a freelance editor in the Grosse Pointes who didn’t give her last name out of concern that expressing her opinion could lead to reprisals, with political feelings running high. She said she couldn’t consider Sanders or Warren — she disagrees with their plans for government-run health care — but that she also feels Biden perhaps has been part of institutional Washington for too long.

“I think that’s the appeal of Bloomberg,” she said. “He’s someone who is outside the system but has leadership skills … (and) there is a hope for some kind of bipartisan ethic that will get something done and move the country forward.”

The poll indicated that Bloomberg’s lead was not necessarily a firm one, however. For instance, while he led with self-described independents, 44%-39%, over Trump, that matchup included 17% undecided. Sanders (47%-46%) and Biden (46%-42%) had slimmer margins with independents but the number of undecided voters in each of those matchups was smaller, suggesting they’re on more solid ground with that key voting bloc for now.

Bloomberg’s favorability rating, too, was the lowest among all the Democratic candidates, at 26%, and his unfavorability rating was 34%. But his undecideds, at 24%, were also much higher than the other candidates, leaving room for growth, good or bad.

And Bloomberg clearly has made inroads with certain voters.

For instance, in answering one question, 44% of respondents said they would vote to replace Trump and another 19% said they would consider voting for someone else. Thirty-four percent said they would vote to reelect.

All of the leading Democrats, Bloomberg included, scored extremely well — as expected — among those who said they definitely planned to vote for someone other than Trump.

But only Bloomberg and Biden did better than Trump among that 19% of voters who said they would consider voting only for someone other than the president. Among that group of voters, Bloomberg got 49% to Trump's 30% in a head-to-head matchup against the incumbent. Biden got 48% to Trump's 39%.

Bloomberg also does better with white voters (Trump 48%, Bloomberg 43%, with 9% undecided) than any of the other candidates while doing just about as well with black voters. And while all of the Democratic candidates are doing far better than Trump in metro Detroit, it is Bloomberg (58%-34%) doing the best — in part because, according to the poll, only he and Sanders lead Trump in Macomb County, which helped deliver the election to the president four years ago.

Bloomberg leads Trump 51%-41% in Macomb, according to the poll, and Sanders 49%-45%. Because of the smaller sample size from one count, however, the margin of error would be far greater than 4 points, and should be taken into account.

Trump is solidifying support among Republicans

Trump also got good news out of the poll, which clearly indicated that he has continued to firm up his support among Republicans, despite only 41% of the overall sample giving him a favorable assessment as president and 54% giving him an unfavorable rating.

Bernie Porn, EPIC-MRA’s pollster, said it’s clear in fact that Trump’s reelection chances are far better than those favorable/unfavorable ratings would suggest and that he has built back support with some key blocs of his own, including white voters overall and Republican women, who now look to be backing Trump overwhelmingly.

"It is better for him than it has been in the past. The only reason the Democrats are winning is because the state is more Democratic (than Republican)," Porn said.

Trump continues to perform better than the others among voters without a college education (leading Biden, the closest challenger, 54%-40% among this group), among men in general (Trump leads Bloomberg 50%-42%; women overall favor the Democratic candidates) and, in most cases, with voters over the age of 50 (the exception being Bloomberg). He leads all the Democratic candidates outside of metro Detroit, though he significantly trails them all in southeastern Michigan, which is where the bulk of the state's population is located.

Brent Huddleston, a 33-year-old process server in Hudsonville, in west Michigan, said he didn’t vote for Trump four years ago — voting for a third-party candidate on the ballot — because he was turned off by Trump’s behavior and his tweets.

He has since warmed up to the president, though he still questions Trump’s use of social media to attack opponents regularly.

“I think he’s done a lot that he said he was going to do, which is a little different than what we’ve been used to over the last several decades,” he said, explaining that while he’s not a huge fan of tariffs or debt, he believes Trump has taken a stronger line with China and approved tax cuts that have helped the economy.

Positive signs for Sanders, Biden as well

While the poll didn’t ask voters who they liked in the March 10 Democratic primary, it showed Biden with the highest net favorability (plus-3), which is calculated by subtracting favorability from unfavorability ratings (44%-41% in Biden’s case).

For the others, net favorability was as follows: Sanders minus-1 (44%-45%), Warren minus-7 (32%-39%), Buttigieg 0 (27%-27%) and Bloomberg minus-8 (26%-34%).

Biden and Sanders, especially, could clearly find other good news in the poll as well.

Besides holding a possible lead in Macomb County, for instance, Sanders also appeared to have overcome what has long been seen as problems attracting support in the African American community.

The poll indicated that among blacks in Michigan, Sanders leads Trump 89%-8% — which is better than any other Democratic candidate, including Biden (86%-9%), who has been seen as having more traditional support in that community. Again, because of the smaller sample size, however, the margin of error would be larger.

Sanders also does better with respondents who are members of labor unions than any other candidate, getting 53% of that vote in a head-to-head with Trump compared with his 45%. (Biden beats Trump with that group 50%-45%, Bloomberg does so as well, 50%-43%.)

As for Biden, the former vice president enjoys considerable strength with all the key voting blocs. Perhaps more importantly, outside of metro Detroit — where he is effectively tied in levels of support with Sanders and Bloomberg in a race against Trump — he is the only candidate to come within a point of the president (Trump 48%, Biden 47%) in the rest of the state.

Gwen Chapo, 77, of Alpena will only commit to maybe supporting Biden if he wins the nomination. She pretty much has concerns about everyone running and just how committed they are to helping the country. But she sounds like she’s going to support whomever it takes to get Trump out of office.

“He’s a liar, he’s a user of people,” she said of the president. “He’s just a monster as far as I’m concerned. And he talks about the press — that makes me furious. He’s the most un-good man I’ve ever encountered.”

Read more:

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Contact Todd Spangler: tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @tsspangler. Read more on Michigan politics and sign up for our elections newsletter.