For all the jokes about his competence as a congressman, Devin Nunes pulled off something of a political masterstroke over the last week. Seeking to cast doubt on Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation, his office compiled a memo alleging scandalous misdeeds at the Department of the Justice and the F.B.I., based on classified information that few other people can access. He allowed his colleagues to look at it, then declined to make it public, setting off a social media firestorm around the hashtag #ReleaseTheMemo. Congressman Mark Meadows purported to be “shocked,” and others claimed that the revelations were serious enough to merit firings, and even criminal charges. At the same time, House Republicans are refusing to share the memo with the very agencies the memo claims to unmask, fueling the histrionics on Fox News and on Donald Trump’s Twitter over alleged F.B.I. bias, and whipping the conservative base into a frenzy.

Here’s what we know: the memo reportedly claims that senior F.B.I. officials abused the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which allows U.S. law enforcement to conduct foreign surveillance on American soil. Specifically, it is said to allege that F.B.I. agents sought to conceal the fact that the controversial Trump-Russia dossier compiled by ex-British spook Christopher Steele influenced the agency’s decision to seek a warrant in fall 2016 to surveil Carter Page.

But Republican lawmakers, seemingly by design, aren’t divulging any specifics. On Sunday, the Daily Beast reported that despite multiple requests, the F.B.I. has not seen the memo. “The F.B.I. has requested to receive a copy of the memo in order to evaluate the information and take appropriate steps if necessary. To date, the request has been declined,” Andrew Ames, a spokesperson for the F.B.I., told the outlet. A D.O.J. official confirmed to Politico that it, too, had been denied access.

When asked to explain the committee’s reticence, Congressman Mike Conaway said that F.B.I. director Christopher Wray is “over there by himself,” implying that he’s surrounded by untrustworthy holdovers from the Obama administration. And Congressman Matt Gaetz, a vocal advocate of the memo’s release, told the Daily Beast that officials at both agencies are already familiar with the contents. “I’ve read the memo. Nothing contained in it will surprise them. But it has surprised and horrified many of us,” he said. Others, however, were skeptical. “If this is about F.B.I. abuses, why wouldn’t they share it with the Trump-appointed director who wasn’t at the bureau when the abuses supposedly occurred?” a Senate aide told the Daily Beast. “If this is about cleaning up the F.B.I. like they claim, wouldn’t they want Wray as an ally?”

The overwrought rhetoric, and near-total lack of substance, suggests that the contents of the memo may not live up to expectations. Adam Schiff, the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said in statement that the memo, is “rife with factual inaccuracies” and “is meant only to give Republican House members a distorted view of the F.B.I.” But the panel has moved to prevent Democrats from releasing a minority report characterizing the intelligence upon which the memo is based. As a result, the only thing the public knows is what lawmakers are saying about a partisan document—again, written by Nunes and his staff—based on confidential information that cannot be disclosed.

G.O.P. lawmakers are reportedly considering publicizing the memo through an obscure legislative process that would establish a five-day window for Donald Trump to approve or deny its release. If he were to choose the latter, the decision would be kicked to the full House, which would hold a closed vote on the issue. But releasing the memo could diminish its power—especially if the alleged smoking gun is more smoke and mirrors. Republicans could feasibly bolster their claims by releasing the source material. And Trump could choose to declassify the entire thing, if he actually wanted to. But unless there’s a there there, it’s not clear there would be a point. If the memo is just Nunes’s ramblings, team “witch hunt” loses both credibility and leverage.