This report summarizes an IPC-compatible analysis of Local Government Areas (LGAs) and select Internally Displaced Person (IDP) concentrations in Borno State, Nigeria. This analysis follows a July 2016 multi-agency alert which warned of Famine and builds off of the October 2016 Cadre Harmonisé analysis (Annex Figure 1) which concluded that “Since the CH analysis … does not give enough information about the reality in the LGAs, it was identified that further analysis is needed for Borno State where two senatorial zones had been found in Emergency (Phase 4), to determine whether or not there is actually Famine (CH Phase 5) occurring in some areas of the state.”

In response to this need for additional analysis, and in light of newly available information, FEWS NET conducted an IPC-compatible analysis for Borno. The process began by compiling all available information on food consumption, livelihoods, nutritional status, and mortality, as well as information on contributing factors, including FEWS NET analysis of crop production, market functioning, accessibility, and humanitarian assistance in the northeast. Given the lack of up-to-date LGA-level population statistics, FEWS NET also conducted an analysis of available displacement information to estimate the current population of LGAs in Borno. FEWS NET staff used this collection of information to classify LGAs and camps in Borno using IPC-compatible analysis protocols.

IPC Review: This report has undergone an IPC Real Time Quality Review (RTQR). Undertaken by staff from the IPC Global Support Unit, Action Against Hunger, and the UN World Food Programme, the review aimed to assess both the plausibility of the analysis and the degree to which IPC protocols were followed. This review concluded that the evidence presented converged towards the report’s conclusions. However, the RTQR noted that the analysis was constrained by the limited availability and quality of food security data. For example, in Bama LGA, though rapid field assessments, reports from local authorities, and multiple mass screenings all suggested very high levels of acute malnutrition, no representative nutrition surveys have been conducted in this area during 2016. Based on these two conclusions, the RTQR recommended that the analysis be forwarded on to the IPC’s Emergency Review Committee (ERC) for a final determination.

The IPC’s ERC is a four-member group comprised of emergency food security and nutrition analysis experts. The purpose of the ERC is to provide final vetting of IPC or IPC-compatible analyses that propose that Famine has occurred, may occur in the future, or is only being prevented by the provision of humanitarian assistance. Following its review, key conclusions of the ERC include the following:

There is enough evidence to classify an Elevated Likelihood that a Famine occurred in Bama and Banki towns, and is likely to have occurred in specific enclaves in the inaccessible areas of Borno State where similar conditions persisted if caveats identified by the ERC are respected. There is enough evidence to state that there is an Elevated Likelihood that a Famine is on-going in inaccessible areas of Borno State if caveats identified by the ERC are respected. There is enough evidence to state that there is an Elevated Risk that a Famine will continue in inaccessible areas of Borno State if caveats identified by the ERC are respected.

Annex Figure 21 provides more detail on the caveats/qualifications identified by the ERC. In particular the ERC emphasized that these conclusions rest on a reasonable, but unverified assumption that significant populations remain in inaccessible areas and face conditions (e.g., access to food, income, and humanitarian assistance) similar to those found in other areas that were once inaccessible (e.g., Bama LGA).

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