1) Recently, I’ve been doing profiles on players I like. I skipped Zion, though I’ll mention now that Jalen Rose, who stated Zion wouldn’t start on the Fab Five when we all know Zion would start over just about anyone, including Webber, probably lacks the perspective to properly assess said player’s potential. But I did cover Brandon Clarke (my current number 2), Grant Williams (my current number 3), Tre Jones, and recently Jarrett Culver.

Other players I’ll get to, should I have enough time, include Jaxson Hayes, Nic Claxton, De’Andre Hunter (Cole will have a really good write up on him coming before then), Jontay Porter, and perhaps Killian Tillie. Players I may or may not have time for, and whom I like relative to their current draft rating, include Josh LeBlanc (he’s not going), Terence Davis, Iggy Brazdeikis, Jarron Cumberland, Bruno Fernando, Isaiah Roby, Juwan Morgan, DaQuan Jeffries, and Eric Paschall.

Players I’m still on the fence about include basically all the freshmen with questionable feel (Reddish, Barrett, Little, Porter et al), Ja Morant (jump shooting, risk/mistake prone, defense), Admiral Schofield, Bol Bol, Neemias Queta, Romeo Langford (though less because of feel than the others) and probably a few others. While I’ll also say, I don’t know enough about Sekou Doumbouya or any of the other Euros.

2) One player I’m not on the fence about is Matisse Thybulle.

Of course, I’m likely his biggest fan when it comes to the NBA draft. And that’s because Thybulle, as a player with potentially elite defensive value and with a projectable 3-point shot plus dribbling, passing and decision-making within the right context, is one who possesses A LOT of upside. Yes, the defense is that good. And the shot is certainly good enough, even if it is fairly stationary and without much diversity, to buy because of it.

(Thybulle doesn’t have shot diversity outside the arc, but over the course of his career he’s hit in-between shots inside the arc with decent enough proficiency, which is important to note).

3) After all, if Thybulle gets minutes, we’re talking about a potential league leader in both steals and steals per minute, a feat that hasn’t been accomplished since Chris Paul did it in 2011-12, with the steals per minute, at the level at which Thybulle plays, the more important indicator of overall defensive value. This is without even going granularly into why Thybulle projects to be great in most phases of defense, or even yet talking about blocks.

4) Here’s the top non-point guard guys in terms of steals per 48 in years 2000-01 to 06-07 and 13-14 to 16-17, with some years missing because it’s basically redundant information. The one threshold being at least 20 minutes per game played. Except in 04-05, because a lot of those guys show up prominently on just about every list. And also with the exception for the year that Manu led the league in steals per minute, for much the same reason.

Just a short break. So with the exception of Larry Hughes and some of the centers, almost every one of these players was known at one point as an above average defender, if not an All-NBA or even defensive player of the year type (Metta, AK47, Tony Allen, Ben Wallace, Iguodala).

Again, we see the same kind of guys populating the list year in and year out. Note that the non-point guard guys who repeatedly make these lists tend to not only be good at steals but good to great at defense on the whole. Steals are not only important plays, but often indicative of other important plays, like deflections, awareness, anticipation and being in the right place at the right time.

Again, several all universe type defenders and lots of good ones. If you know a wing player is going to repeatedly be at or near the top of this list, you can with a reasonable certainty surmise that he’s going to be a valuable defender if not an incredibly valuable one.

5) That brings us back to Thybulle who averaged 5.2 steals per 100 possessions last year and is currently averaging 6.3 steals per 100 possessions. To put that into perspective, Robert Covington averaged 4.0 steals per 100 in his best season (Andre Roberson 3.9. Jae Crowder 4.3. Victor Oladipo 4.6 Michael Carter-Williams 4.7). Kawhi never over 3.0. Marcus Smart at 5.3 was the only non pure point guard defender I can find since sports-reference put up per 100 data with those kinds of steals numbers, and Thybulle’s current season is still something like 15-17 percent better than Smart’s best.

Thybulle is the best wing-sized ball thief that almost any of us have seen in college basketball. I think you’d have to go back way before Marion to Ron Harper, who played in the MAC, to find someone comparable. Really, that far. And Ron Harper was also one of the best defenders of his era.

6) It’s not all because of the zone. Not even remotely close. Matisse Thybulle has legitimate space defending talent. Excellent sense of where to position himself, what the offense is going to do and thus anticipation, elite reaction and hand speed, very good feet, closing speed and a ridiculous and deceptively long wingspan.

7) The historic numbers tracker: there’s been no one with more than 100 steals and more than 11 blocks. Thybulle has already had 1 season with 101 steals and 49 blocks (there’s only 4 comparable seasons in the database) and is currently on pace to have something like 110 steals and 73 blocks in this season. So from no player ever to have more than two seasons with 100 steals and 12 blocks to one guy having two seasons with 100 steals and over 45 blocks. That’s called lapping the field.

8) Historic numbers tracker part 2: per game numbers. 3 steals and 2 blocks per game. Looking at the sports-reference searchable database, only 45 seasons of even 2 steals and 1.5 blocks per game exist. Of the NBA guys to do it, only Chris Singleton failed, and he went on to great success in Europe. We are talking about Shane Battier, Robert Covington, Shawn Marion, Danny Grenger, Josh Howard, Bo Outlaw, Zion Williamson, Nerlens Noel, and Chris Singleton for guys who got a chance in the league.

9) Historic numbers tracker part 3: per 40 numbers. 4.3 steals and 2.8 blocks per 40. Only Ron Harper and Bo Outlaw ever put up seasons resembling these.

10) Indeed, we haven’t seen blocks + steals seasons like this since Ron Harper and Bo Outlaw. Again, two of the all-time great defenders. Scottie Pippen would be on these lists had he played Division I. Again, another all-time great. Shane Battier and Shawn Marion, though with less extreme steals numbers, had somewhat similar seasons. Danny Green beneath them.

These are the kind of players to whom Thybulle statistically compares in terms of stocks. And compares meaning that he is the king of all of them by quite a bit. Harper. Marion. Outlaw. Battier. Covington. Crowder. Roberson. Marcus Smart. Dwyane Wade. Anfernee Hardaway. Danny Green. Pippen. Oladipo. Iguodala. Ronnie Brewer. Are you beginning to get some sense of a pattern?

11) Thybulle doesn’t need to be all-time great defender to be really valuable on defense, but his event creation + athletic tools + all around defensive IQ/intuition package puts that on the map. Hand speed. Good feet. Setting the angle. Wide base to drive around.

Thybulle matched a career-high, accumulating 7 steals in a victory over USC tonight. 📽: @MatisseThybulle picks the pocket of projected lottery pick, Kevin Porter Jr. pic.twitter.com/BGVOcBfG1D — Jon Chepkevich (@JonChep) January 31, 2019

12) Should the the zone truly be a deterrent to draft investment? Another way to ask this question is to ask if there’s any college zone defenders who went onto to be plus or better NBA defenders?

The question is complicated by the fact that most teams don’t play zone. However, Jayson Tatum’s Duke team played a majority zone and defense is one of his great strengths. Sindarius Thornwell’s South Carolina team’s also basically used him as a weak side centerfielder or space defender much of the time.

Stacey Augmon, out of UNLV in the early 90s, had the reputation, though not the hardware, as one of the game’s better wing defenders, and even late in his career, the On/Off data we do have suggests that almost all of his teams were between 2 and 10 points better when he was on the court than off (this despite not really being an offensive threat). These are Augmon’s age 32 through 37 seasons, when he was clearly on the downside of his career and in only one of them, age 36, was his team better on defense when he wasn’t playing.

Eddie Jones, a close to all-world defender, and Aaron McKie, a bigtime plus guy, both played matchup zone at Temple.

Horford, Noah and Brewer played for Billy Donovan teams that pressed regularly.

Rick Pitino’s defenses almost always have zone and pressing components. We’re talking Francisco Garcia, Montrezl Harrell and Terry Rozier.

Others for whom zone is not the limiting factor: Jerami Grant, Hakim Warrick and Royce O’Neale.

Which is all to say, the anti-zone angle is as ridiculous as the people who are anti-strength as an important quality for basketball prospects. The best zone defenders likely already know how to guard man, and will not need much of a learning curve, just as players who guard the power forward/center position (Roberson, Jimmy Butler, Covington, Kawhi as examples) can easily shift to wing if they have the athleticism to do so.

13) Given all of Thybulle’s defensive strengths, the threshold to get on the court is only passably threatening spot up 3-point jumper. And there’s good reason to think Thybulle may have a passably threatening 3 in him (37 percent for his career from 3 on over 5 attempts per 40 and with over 170 career makes, 78 percent from the free throw line, and a 40 percent shooter on in between 2s as a sophomore/junior, with over 40 makes, though he’s stopped taking and making that shot this year). He also has some ability to handle and pass, although decisions could use some work, that separates him from a player like Handles McDaniels.

Bad read by Thybulle here (should have hit Green sinking to the corner) but ball on a string in tight confines in PNR is impressive. pic.twitter.com/04R2vkPVmQ — Cole Zwicker (@colezwicker) January 24, 2019

14) If Thybulle can perhaps take the 3-point shot from not just passably threatening to elite efficiency (far weirder things have happened if you track the careers of players like Bruce Bowen becoming a yearly 40 percent guy for instance), Thybulle will end up one of the most unsung (i.e. likely underpaid) players of value in the league. And we’re talking big-time value, even if most of that value doesn’t come on offense.

The fact that Tony Allen and Andre Roberson didn’t shoot obscures our minds from an obvious fact: had either of them reliably shot 37 or 38 percent from 3, they would have near hall of fame level impacts, despite still being thought of as just ancillary 3&D players (i.e. they would be at least as good as Shane Battier).

15) Shane Battier is something of a rarity. An elite and versatile defender who also happened to be a near elite spot up 3-point shooter. Danny Green’s best seasons are close to that mold. And few others. Ever. It’s not a coincidence that these guys won championships and regularly played in the conference finals or beyond. It’s also not a coincidence that neither of them ever got paid out on a major deal. That’s what we are potentially talking about with Thybulle.

16) For sure, Thybulle’s shooting is a question. Okay. But the “if he shoots” outcome for Thybulle isn’t just some guy, it’s a major-plus player, and the outcome if he somehow shoots at high efficiency isn’t just a major-plus player in the league but a guy in the running for most valuable dependent offensive player in the league on a yearly basis and one of the best such guys of all time. We’re talking top five to seven type upside in a solid draft, let alone a draft that is supposed to be shot to hell, and Thybulle isn’t only not talked about as a lottery pick, but as even a first rounder. I don’t get it.

Of the guys who should go in the lottery on draft day and probably won’t, Thybulle is the one who is still the most underrated. Perhaps because his offense could bust him in ways it won’t for the others (Clarke, Williams, Tre), but we’re really not properly assessing probabilities and risk/reward and the cost of missing on a draft pick completely versus drafting the next Kelly Oubre or Stanley Johnson or Kevon Looney in being once upon a time freshmen draft picks who were all supposed to be good to great.

Thybulle is currently twice as good as any of them ever were and likely will be. And unlike these guys, whose defense was a make believe skill based on age and looking athletic, Thybulle’s defense is a real skill and will be playable. Playable in the man and playable in space and playable in a way that translates defense into offense in a way that only the best such players do. Unfortunately, most of these players are like Artest or Tony Allen, and have only a passable jump shot or no jump shot at all, but Thybulle still has outs as a potential peak 40 percent 3-point shooter. And even in the case he just gets to passable, his defense is so good he should outperform most of the rest of this draft. Not because this draft is bad necessarily, but because defense in the way that Thybulle plays it is important and valuable too, and as a 6-foot-6 guy with a 7-foot wingspan and positional versatility, becoming more so.

17) We tend to devalue the idea of defense in this era. After all, it’s highly offensive with the best units averaging 118 or 120 points per 100 possessions. Big time stuff. However, think back to the steroid era of baseball when almost no pitcher could stop opposing offenses with consistency. Now think about Pedro Martinez and his ERA over 200 percent better than league average. Think about how much more valuable Pedro Martinez was precisely because he played in an offensive era.

That’s the type of mindset we should have with players like Thybulle and Draymond Green and Jaren Jackson Jr. Think about what Artest or Kirilienko or Garnett or Ben Wallace would have been in this era. And though Thybulle is not remotely Kawhi, he does have one advantage over Kawhi, that specifically fits in this era, in that he’s a space defender extraordinaire, which means you can’t just mitigate Thybulle’s defensive value by playing through players he isn’t guarding, since he’s potentially at his most dangerous when he isn’t guarding the ball. But if you do force him to guard the ball, he can do this, and to a player who has an NBA first step and functional NBA type handle.

Thybulle matched a career-high, accumulating 7 steals in a victory over USC tonight. 📽: @MatisseThybulle picks the pocket of projected lottery pick, Kevin Porter Jr. pic.twitter.com/BGVOcBfG1D — Jon Chepkevich (@JonChep) January 31, 2019

Thybulle’s off ball and on ball skills affect the way opponents play. He affects, or should affect, the very way in which opponents choose to run their offense. And if they aren’t affected, if they don’t alter their offense to avoid or try to work around Thybulle, if they aren’t aware, he makes them pay all the more.

Why are you sleeping?