Instead of our weekly film room breakdown of the New York Jets passing game, we are going to take a step back for a more holistic look at Sam Darnold’s first six starts. Based on the tape, his top line statistics, advanced analytics, passing splits, comparative performance and other random qualitative things we feel like including, how excited should Jets fan be at this point?

Top Line

6 starts, 100% of snaps played

107/179, 59.8%, 1,346 yards (224 yards per game)

7.52 YPA, 83.7 QB Rating

9 touchdowns, 7 interceptions

21 rushing yards, sacked 13 times (6.77% sack rate)

Through six games Darnold’s stat line is:

There are limitations to these numbers but they provide a reasonable baseline on his overall production, which has been encouraging for a 21 year old rookie. The first thing that jumps out is how they address two of the biggest concerns around his game heading into the regular season: his ability to hold on to the football and his ability to attack down the field. Zero fumbles is a pleasant surprise and helps somewhat mitigate an interception rate of roughly one per game. The YPA and the reality that he’s thrown seven touchdowns of 20 yards or longer should be calming some of the arm strength concerns, among other things.

Darnold is pacing for 3,584 yards, 24 touchdowns, 19 interceptions and a completion percentage right at 60 with a YPA well over 7 yards, numbers that compare favorably to other quarterbacks recently in similar situations to him.

Digging Deeper Into The Numbers

Here are a few more advanced analytics and passing game splits on Darnold’s production so far:

Via Football Outsiders

Darnold ranks 20th in both FB Outsider’s DYAR metric (86) and DVOA (-6.9%) metric. The explanation of those metrics are:

Quarterbacks are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the quarterback ‘s performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DYAR (and its cousin, YAR, which isn’t adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here. The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player’s performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn’t adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here. The simple version: DYAR means a quarterback with more total value. DVOA means a quarterback with more value per play.

Darnold is 15th in net passing yards per play, well ahead of all the other rookie quarterbacks. He also lost 85 yards on sacks, while Josh Allen has lost 167 yards and Baker Mayfield has lost 86 yards in less overall playing time. Darnold has only been victimized by 5 drops so far this year, while Cleveland has 12 drops, Arizona has 8 drops and Buffalo has 6.

Darnold is 8th in the NFL in first down percentage on 3rd and medium. His overall splits are included here, with a few highlights below:

Darnold on 3rd and 4-9 is 16/26 for 261 yards, 14 first downs, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception and a 10.0 YPA. There is a large disparity in snaps but he’s been more effective under center than in shotgun. He also has 5 of his 9 touchdown passes on third down and 3 of his 7 interceptions have come on first down.

The Positives

Short Memory: Darnold has not went into a shell after making mistakes. Many times young quarterbacks will lose their confidence after a turnover or a missed throw and let one bad play spiral into a bad game. Right out of the gate Darnold demonstrated an ability to move past a killer turnover when his first pass of the season was a pick six. After that pass he went 16/20 for 198 yards with 2 touchdowns and 0 turnovers the rest of the way. He also was not hesitant about continuing to attack down the field for big plays:

Accuracy/Decisiveness: Darnold has demonstrated a high level of accuracy so far in his NFL career, particularly on third downs and in the red zone. He trusts his arm strength and trusts his receivers in tight windows, even players like Terrelle Pryor, who have given inconsistent effort throughout the season.

The Negatives

Stubbornness: A handful of Darnold’s turnovers have come from stubbornness of sticking with a play or pre-determining a throw before the snap. On his opening day pick six, the Jets schemed up a home run shot backside to Bilal Powell, Darnold should have given up on going to him when he was flushed forward in the pocket and ate the opportunity for a big play but instead he forced the issue. He made a similar mistake last week against Indianapolis when he pre-determined a deep nine route to Robby Anderson and despite pressure in his face and Anderson lacking a step on his defender, put the ball up for grabs.

Mechanical Inconsistency: This interception could be categorized under “stubbornness” as well, as Darnold sticks with attempting a pass to Jermaine Kearse after missing his window to release the football. What compounds the problem is that he’s falling away from the throw due to pressure. The same thing happened on his interception against Indianapolis.

For Comparison’s Sake

Rookie QBs Darnold: 179 attempts, 59.8%, 7.5 YPA, 9 TDs, 7 INTs, 0 fumbles Mayfield: 153 attempts, 55.6%, 7.0 YPA, 4 TDs, 5 INTs, 2 fumbles Allen: 139 attempts, 54.0%, 5.9 YPA, 2 TDs, 5 INTs, 1 fumble (3 rushing TD) Rosen: 90 attempts, 55.6%, 6.9 YPA, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 0 fumbles pic.twitter.com/Nzq8TA5MCd — Joe Caporoso (@JCaporoso) October 15, 2018

Darnold is holding up well against the other first round quarterbacks this season, no matter how much Browns fans want to complain about dropped passes impacting Baker Mayfield (to be fair, they are). At 21 years old, Darnold looks just as, if not slightly more, pro ready than all the other rookies who are 1-2 years older than him.

Darnold’s first six games also put him in friendly company when looking at recent first year quarterbacks who have turned into All-Pro starters. As we mentioned before, Darnold is on pace for 3,584 yards, 24 touchdowns, 19 interceptions and a completion percentage right at 60 with a YPA well over 7 yards. Here is the stat line for Carson Wentz, Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck during their rookie years:

Wentz: 3,782 yards, 62.4 completion percentage, 16 TDs, 14 INTs, 6.23 YPA

Luck: 4,374 yards, 54.1 completion percentage, 23 TDs, 18 INTs, 6.98 YPA

Roethlisberger: 2,621 yards, 66.4 completion percentage, 17 TDs, 11 INTs, 8.89 YPA

What Else?

Without diving too much into the qualitative stuff, Darnold has held up incredibly well as the face of a New York franchise at 21 years old. He has demonstrated a short memory on the field and outside of the Cleveland game, has not really look rattled at all. Jets fans have seen a rattled rookie quarterback recently with Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith and while those are low bars to clear, the discrepancy between Darnold and those two is staggering in year one. He has handled the media well and has already earned the respect of the locker room, while developing a strong working relationship with backup quarterback Josh McCown. One of our running jokes throughout the summer was Darnold being a single minded football robot with limited interests or flashy activity outside the game and while an exaggeration, it has held up pretty well so far.

Overall

Jets fans should be more than happy with what they have seen from Darnold through six games. There has been the expected ups and downs but his production, composure and on field aggressiveness at only 21 years old lines up with, or exceeds, what the Jets expected when they took him third overall. He has two challenging matchups upcoming against the Vikings and Bears so it will be interesting to see how he progressed from his difficult games against the Browns and Jaguars.

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