Name: Peter Holland

Age: 24 years old

Height: 6’02

Weight: 194 lbs

Experience: 4th Pro Season

Cap Hit: $775,000

Stats: 59GP, 11G, 12A, 29PIM, -1

See below for all advanced stats formulas. It helps!

Corsi Relative: -3.3

– A Corsi relative score of -3.3 indicates that the Toronto Maple Leafs get 3.3 LESS shot attempts than their opponents when he is on the ice (60 minute measurement) as opposed to when he is off the ice.

– This number ranks Peter Holland second last among Maple Leafs centerman and given that he is facing the oppositions third line it would lead us to believe that Holland is best suited against bottom six competition but unlikely to be able to slide onto the second line and provide efficient minutes.

PDO: 1020

– The average PDO for an NHL player should hover somewhere around 1000 (or 100%).

– This metric is derived from the fact that the on-ice shooting percentage of your team, added to the sv% of the opposing goalie, should equal to 1.000 (.920 sv% + 0.08 sh%).

– Peter Holland’s even-strength shooting percentage is sitting at 10.21% for the season, while his on ice save % is .918. Holland is benefiting from inflated numbers on both metrics (relative to the league average) indicating that his +/- is likely to regress if he continues to play this way.

Relative Quality of Competition: 0.002

– Peter Holland has the second lowest QoC Rel among Maple Leafs centerman, indicating that he is playing against the opposing teams third line. Not much to read into here given that Holland will always be playing behind Bozak and Kadri and likely will remain there for the foreseeable future.

– The takeaway from this is the same as we saw in our Corsi Rel analysis, Holland is best suited to play against bottom six players. If he were to be slotted in against the oppositions top six forwards his possession would get worse and he would be exposed even further.

– It should be noted that despite the fact that his possession is lower than desired, Holland is only a -1 on the season, while Leafs are a paltry -47 for the year, so while he may not be possessing the puck his line is at least keeping it out of their net (Note: This is a house of cards, if you continue to be out-possessed by the opposition, the goals against will come).



On/Off Ice +/-: 0.20

On Ice +/- per 60 Minutes: 0.09

Off Ice +/- per 60 Minutes: -0.11

– The Toronto Maple Leafs even strength +/- improved by 0.20 goals per 60 minutes when Peter Holland was on the ice as opposed to when he was not.

– This statistic is a bit mis-leading, as we have already seen that Holland’s PDO is boosting both his offensive and defensive numbers right now. While his PDO isn’t high enough to indicate that Holland’s +/- will fall of a cliff, it should be noted as a point of concern going forward,

Face-Off Zone Starts:

Offensive Zone Start: 38.1% of the time. (Finishes there 47.6%)

– Peter Holland is used primarily in defensive zone face-off situations. This is an odd deployment given that Holland only has a 44.8% face-off winning percentage.

– Given that Holland ranks last among Maple Leafs centerman (in this category) this is absolutely baffling usage on the parts of Carlyle/Horachek. Possession is king in the new world,

you should deploy your best face-off man in defensive zone scenarios to secure the puck and move it out of your zone.

Top Linemate: Jake Gardiner

– This represents the second time in a row that a forward has played the majority of their minutes with a defenceman. Holland and Gardiner are deployed together 37% of the time when Toronto is at even strength.

– Diving a bit deeper into the analysis we see that Holland played with David Clarkson 36.6% of the time this season, which would have made Clarkson his top linemate pre-trade. This couldn’t have helped Holland’s overall statistics in any of the metrics measured above.

NEW: Relative Performance Analysis

– A new feature in the advanced stats series will be analyzing the performance of a player relative to his peers at his position. The chart below provides ice-time, goals, assists, possession and more, relative to the other NHL players.

– Holland’s tableau is consistent with what we have seen in the analysis above. He is deployed as a bottom six forward, has slightly higher than average goal totals and his possession numbers are on-par or slightly below the position he has been slotted into.

– Holland does not appear to be able to handle better competition so his future appears to be in a 3rd/4th line role. His face-off percentage and possession will both need to improve relatively quickly if he wants to be effective in this role.

Conclusion:

– Peter Holland, in his 4th NHL season, appears to be settling into the role of a bottom six player with the ability to chip in some offence.

– His +/- is currently being buoyed up by a high 5 on 5 shooting and save percentage, indicating that his -1 is benefiting from some puck luck and likely to regress.

– Holland appears unlikely to be able to become a top 6 player but with some improvement to his face-off % and a bit more focus on getting pucks to the net in the offensive zone, he could mature into a solid two-way centerman, occupying your third line.

FUTURE: Should remain with the Leafs through a portion of the rebuild but unlikely to be considered a required piece of the core group.

Stay tuned for the next installment of Maple Leafs Advanced Stats Analysis featuring Leafs forward Nazem Kadri.

– Brandon Finley

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Thanks to Behind The Net for compiling the Advanced Stats.

Thank you to Own The Puck for the tableau visuals.

Legend:

Corsi Number = (Shots on Target For + Missed Shots For + Blocked Shots Against ) – (Shots on Target Against + Missed Shots Against + Blocked Shots For)

Corsi Relative = (Corsi Number of Player X) – (Corsi of Team with player X not on the ice)

On/Off Ice +/- = (On Ice +/- per 60 minutes) – (Off Ice +/- per 60 minutes)

Corsi Relative QoC = The weighted relative corsi of a player’s opposition