Poverty experts in Hamilton say people with low incomes are starting to leave the city because of escalating housing costs.

"From what I see from the data, people are moving further away from Toronto," says Sara Mayo, of the Social Planning and Research Council. "People in Toronto are moving to Peel. People in Peel are moving to Halton. People in Halton are moving to Hamilton. And people in Hamilton are moving to Niagara."

One sign of an exodus from Hamilton, further away from Toronto, is surging demand for real estate in the Niagara Region noted by the Canadian Real Estate Association. Niagara experienced the biggest percentage price jump of any local market in Canada, according to CREA data released in September.

Home prices shot up by 81 per cent in the past five years in that region, a sign of skyrocketing demand from new buyers flooding into that market.

"It's a classic case of drive till you can qualify," said Shaun Cathcart, a senior economist with CREA. "Buyers that are finding Hamilton prices too high, are starting to look at Niagara."

The average price of a house in Niagara is $413,700 compared to $614,800 in Hamilton-Burlington and $801,200 in Greater Toronto, according to the CREA figures. Rental cost numbers are less available, but they tend to follow a similar pattern to the real estate market.

"We certainly know that people are moving because housing prices are too expensive," says Mayo. "We know that housing prices get cheaper as we move westward around the lake and then eastward into Niagara."

The net effect, she says, is that Hamilton's population is still marginally increasing, but not nearly as much as it would with the outflow to Niagara, as well as to the Brant, Haldimand and Norfolk areas.

Tom Cooper, director of the Hamilton Roundtable for Poverty Reduction, says, "Ten years ago it was people coming from Toronto to Hamilton for that very reason. But now Hamilton has become unaffordable, beyond unaffordable. Lots of households are spending 80 per cent of their incomes on rent."

"If you take a browse through the rental listings you'll see the rents have become astronomical in Hamilton," he said. "For those on fixed incomes, and social assistance especially, it is impossible to try to cobble together enough to meet rent in Hamilton.

"It would not surprise me if we were to see more people leaving over the next year," he said.

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