Senior figures in Theresa May’s team privately fear she will lose the second "meaningful vote" on her Brexit deal and are gaming whether they can secure a majority at a third attempt.



As Westminster waits to see if Attorney General Geoffrey Cox returns from Brussels next week with legally-binding changes to the Irish backstop – the insurance policy to prevent a hard border – allies of the prime minister conceded to BuzzFeed News that whatever he comes back with may not be enough to win the second vote on the deal.

Instead, ministers and aides are considering how May could win a potential third Commons vote. The plan is a continuation of Downing Street’s strategy in January, which BuzzFeed News revealed was to hold several votes until they won a majority.

A senior minister said May’s aides were resigned to “peeling off” as many Brexiteer opponents of the deal as possible to bring the scale of defeat at the second vote down from a record-breaking 230 to “the dozens”.

A Whitehall source added that if the deal was defeated by “between 20 and 80” votes then Number 10 is confident it would pass on its third attempt. Ministers are using the terms “MV2” and “MV3” to describe what they now view as the likely second and third meaningful votes.

Integral to Downing Street’s strategy is the EU response to a UK request for an extension to Article 50, which parliament could vote for on March 14. The following week, May is due in Brussels for a European Council meeting with the other 27 EU leaders, where any extension request is likely to be on the agenda.