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— Breaking News —

The virus has had another day of rapid growth. In yesterday’s post, we predicted that cases would continue to grow rapidly to top 10 thousand in 24 hours (well above some other predictions). The latest update (as of 9:30 pm EST Jan. 30) shows 9800 cases. We’re now expecting the last update of Feb. 1 (i.e. 24 hours from now) to push that to over 13 thousand cases as the virus shows no sign of slowing down.

To start, perhaps the most concerning is the potential for asymptomatic spread – something that the CDC and China have argued about the possibility of, with the CDC stating they don’t think it is.

Now, a top US infectious disease doctor has stated there is no doubt that the virus can spread in asymptomatic people. So far, the CDC has issued no comment, however, this is concerning for obvious reasons. As images of airport checks filled the internet in the early days of the virus, the key aspect was that for the potential 5 million people who left Wuhan, and any subsequent ones, they were monitored using fever checks.

Should this US top infectious disease doctor be correct, these checks will have turned out almost meaningless in containing the virus, as anyone in the 1-14 day incubation period would have gotten through. This could cause significant further spread in the virus and points to a need for much stricter quarantine procedures. Fortunately, most countries evacuating citizens from Wuhan have stated that they’ll be quarantining those who arrive for 2 weeks.

Separately, conflicting reports have begun to emerge over the first case on New York City. Separate reports have emerged about the the U.S.’s 7th virus case being confirmed in New York City and other officials denying the virus. At this point, discussions remain to be seen, however, as a major city the question of a case in New York City is when and not if.