Sen. Mike Rounds said that his class of a dozen Republican senators views its mandate as confirming right-leaning judges and changing the direction of the nation's courts. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo Congress GOP senators use Kavanaugh to beat back 2020 primary challengers The lawmakers know that one way to fend off a Trump-fueled primary challenge is to back the Supreme Court nominee.

Senate Republicans are making an aggressive play to ward off primary challenges in 2020, digging in behind embattled Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and showing the GOP base that they are fighting on behalf of President Donald Trump’s court pick.

At least 21 Republican senators will be up for reelection in 2020 — including GOP leader Mitch McConnell — and the first step toward keeping their seats with Trump atop the ticket is avoiding a Trump-fueled primary challenge. Many of them, save for Maine moderate Susan Collins, are among Kavanaugh’s staunchest defenders against what they deem a “smear campaign” of sexual assault allegations and inspection of Kavanaugh’s drinking habits.


These senators, many of whom won for the first time in 2014, say they are merely reflecting the intensity of conservative voters who are outraged at what they view as Kavanaugh’s unfair treatment by liberal Democrats and the media. While many will face token challengers at a minimum, the key is to make sure they are aligned with Trump on key issues — and perhaps nothing is bigger going into the next election cycle than defending Trump’s beleaguered nominee.

“I’ve long believed that we not only need to win fights here, but we need to be seen fighting. That’s important,” said Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas), who added he’s planning to run for reelection but expects a primary opponent.

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), who took a Democratic seat in 2014, said that his class of a dozen Republican senators — called the “bear den” within the Senate — views its mandate as confirming right-leaning judges and changing the direction of the Supreme Court and lower courts. A loss on Kavanaugh would be seen as a black mark by their voters.

“If we don’t do a good job and we don’t do everything we can to [confirm] good, solid conservative judges, yeah, they’re going to be mad at us. And they see Judge Kavanaugh as being conservative,” Rounds said. “A lot of them think we’re being played by the Democrats.”





Sign up here for POLITICO Huddle A daily play-by-play of congressional news in your inbox. Email Sign Up By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

But one reason conservatives are angered is that GOP leaders were forced to acquiesce to demands from three undecided GOP senators — not Democrats — to allow the FBI to investigate Kavanaugh. And now all eyes are on Collins and the two other undecided senators: the retiring Jeff Flake of Arizona and recently reelected Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.

For Collins, how she comes down on Kavanaugh could sink her in a GOP primary in 2020 or infuriate liberals so much that she draws a credible general election opponent. In an interview Tuesday, Collins said she will decide whether to run for reelection next year and is fixated in the meantime on making sure she makes the right decision on what could be the biggest vote of her career.

“All I can do is cast the vote I think is correct. If I try to do a political assessment on this vote, it would be wrong given that we’re talking about a Supreme Court nominee,” she said. “No matter how I vote, there will be people who are very unhappy with it.”

That position is isolated from the rest of her caucus, similar to when Collins, Murkowski and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) voted against Obamacare repeal. Meanwhile, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), so often targeted by conservatives in the past for cutting deals on immigration reform and President Barack Obama’s nominees, stole the show during Kavanaugh’s hearing by shouting down “despicable” Democrats who he said are intent on keeping the Supreme Court seat vacant.

Graham is barely concealing the fact that his about-face on Trump is likely to help in his upcoming Senate race in two years.

“I’m getting a lot of credit from people back home for fighting back against what they saw as an outrage. And if you’re surprised by this you don’t know me very well,” Graham said in an interview. “The stakes are pretty high here. I’ll get my fair share of credit. But whether people believe it or not, this is about a system. I didn’t pick this fight.”





Despite the broad defense from the 2020 GOP class, senators from more conservative states like South Carolina and Texas have been more out front than those from more purple states like Maine. And Sens. Joni Ernst of Iowa, Cory Gardner of Colorado and Thom Tillis of North Carolina haven’t questioned Kavanaugh accuser Christine Blasey Ford’s story, as Cornyn and Graham have, even as they continue to support Kavanaugh.

That’s because in the Trump-fueled news cycle, there is some debate about how long a single storyline will resonate. In the Senate races that will conclude next month, Democrats’ votes against tax reform, Obamacare repeal and even Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch have faded amid constant chaos from the White House.

Republicans say Kavanaugh is breaking through in a different way: It’s a fundamental shirts vs. skins exercise in which GOP senators are telling their voters whether they are with Trump or against him. And it’s been on the front page and top of the newscasts for more than two weeks now.

“Kavanaugh has had a longer news half life than anything since President Trump’s been elected,” said Josh Holmes, a former McConnell chief of staff and campaign manager. “It leaves a disproportionately large footprint on the electorate.”

Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), who is retiring, said that if Kavanaugh fails another nominee could be confirmed fairly quickly and before the end of the year. And that could help soothe GOP voters angered at senators who oversaw Kavanaugh’s rocky confirmation process.

“It may seem like it’s a big issue right now, but there will be somebody else nominated” if Kavanaugh is defeated, Corker said. “It’s a window in time that will come and go. What it will affect is midterms. The effect on 2020 will be lesser.”

Yet if Collins were to vote against Kavanaugh, she might have to run as an independent or mirror Murkowski’s 2010 write-in bid if she were to lose a primary, several senators said privately. That’s why few of her colleagues that are set to run for reelection in two years are taking the political risk of publicly questioning whether Kavanaugh should be confirmed depending on what the FBI investigation turns up.

Instead, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) is calling for a criminal referral of Julie Swetnick’s affidavit that alleged Kavanaugh was present during gang rapes. Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) called for a full floor vote on Kavanaugh even as Collins, Flake and Murkowski put on the brakes. Cornyn says the Senate is in a “watershed” moment in which Kavanaugh’s opponents “are saying that due process and presumption of innocence doesn’t apply.” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) is attacking news outlets for a “pure partisan hit job.” And McConnell is decrying the “politics of personal destruction” that Kavanaugh is facing.

For a Republican in the middle of the fight, there’s just no upside to becoming a Kavanaugh skeptic this late in the game. The next Senate cycle starts in a barely a month, after all.

“I’m seeing some data to suggest that this issue has more intensity amongst Republican voters, unlike anything I’ve seen in quite some time,” said Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), another senator elected in 2014. “Top of the chart.”

