LAWRENCE — Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton campaign insiders shared conviction Friday that unprecedented public comments by FBI Director James Comey regarding an investigation of the Democratic candidate’s use of a private email server tipped momentum irrevocably in favor of the GOP nominee in the final week of the race.

Campaign managers, communications directors and pollsters who had a front-row seat to the showdown between Trump and Clinton gathered at the Dole Institute of Politics at the University of Kansas for a second day of discussion about a 2016 campaign that produced one of the more shocking outcomes in modern U.S. election history.

Clinton won the popular vote by more than 2.5 million votes, but Trump will become president in January because he prevailed with the Electoral College. Campaign polls had left the impression Clinton would prevail on Nov. 8.

Jennifer Palmieri, director of communications with the Clinton campaign, said the decision by Comey to interject the Justice Department inquiry into the race during a July briefing to Congress was unsettling. The FBI director’s criticism of Clinton’s inadequate security measures was viewed as damaging by the campaign, she said, but there was relief there was time to cycle through the coverage before the Democratic convention.

Comey’s extraordinary maneuver in October to reveal the FBI’s resumption of an analysis of Clinton emails was in retrospect the straw that broke the campaign’s back, she said.

"We think the overall impact was it ultimately cost us the election," said Palmieri, who indicated saturation coverage of the FBI’s last-minute plunge into the controversy dominated closing days of the campaign and depressed turnout among likely Clinton voters in battleground states.

‘Match

on gasoline’

John McLaughlin, a pollster in the Trump campaign operation, said the New York billionaire was surging at close of the campaign based on negative public reaction to WikiLeaks disclosures related to potential corruption at the Clinton Foundation. On-the-fence voters were increasingly frustrated by Clinton’s possible role in favoritism shown foundation supporters while she was secretary of state, he said, but Comey’s late-campaign disclosures about Clinton’s emails upended the campaign in Trump’s favor.

"They didn’t want any more corruption," McLaughlin said. "It’s like throwing a match on gasoline."

He said the Trump campaign had paid close attention to polling about what voters viewed as more important — attitudes about Trump’s temperament or Clinton’s corruption. During the last week of the campaign, he said, concerns about Clinton’s downside prevailed.

Trump had predicted an upset victory for months and asserted his unconventional, seat-of-the-pants campaign would defy expectations of a Clinton triumph. Not all Trump campaign insiders were convinced the GOP nominee could cross the finish line in first place.

Alan Cobb, the former Kansas director of Americans for Prosperity and an early hire as a Trump campaign adviser, said he thought there was at best a 50 percent chance Trump would prevail. The attitude of most people hunkered down in Trump Tower on Election Day reflected that sentiment, said Cobb, who served as director of coalitions for the Trump campaign and as a senior adviser.

"I thought we had a chance. Most people in HQ thought we had a shot," Cobb said.

Marlon Marshall, who handled state campaigns and political engagement for Clinton, said he went into the Tuesday election assuming Clinton would win. The early loss of Florida was a "warning sign" of what was to come, he said, as narrow defeats in key states sealed the deal.

"People who made up their mind in the last week went for Trump," Marshall said.

Brash talk

irrelevant

The October release of a 2005 video capturing Trump while bragging in vulgar terms about groping, kissing and attempting, due to his role as a celebrity, to have sex with women was immediately interpreted as a devastating blow to Trump’s candidacy. Trump issued a video statement apologizing for using "foolish" words. It was unacceptable locker room talk that ought not distract from the campaign, Trump said.

Michael Glassner, deputy campaign manager for Trump, said the audio didn’t undermine momentum of Trump rallies that demonstrated a deep desire among voters to press for change in Washington, D.C.

"It had zero impact on that part of the campaign," Glassner said.

Glassner said reaction from Trump’s core supporters was similar in 2015 when the real estate mogul lashed out at U.S. Sen. John McCain, who was tortured and held in solitary while serving more than five years in a North Vietnamese prison. Trump said McCain was "a hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured." Trump’s assessment of McCain earned bipartisan condemnation.

"The base of Trump voters didn’t really seem to care," said Glassner, who argued Trump’s commentary ignited his supporters because people found comfort in words of someone who appeared "authentic" rather than a focus-group tested, micromanaged politician. "That’s what people were against."

Christina Reynolds, the Clinton campaign’s deputy communications director, said the "Access Hollywood" tape of Trump was a big moment in the campaign but not a decisive turning point. Clinton insiders at first thought the "shocking but not surprising" remarks by Trump would show the man to be unqualified to serve as president of the United States, she said.

In the end, she said, that evaluation of voter attitudes was misplaced.

"Donald Trump is not your average candidate," Reynolds said. "We thought they were disqualifying. Others did not."

McLaughlin, the Trump pollster, said the GOP nominee took a quick dive in the polls. However, in a race between the lesser of two evils, Trump had sufficient time to regain his footing. The incident unexpectedly had an positive influence on the Trump campaign, McLaughlin said.

"I think Donald Trump himself got more disciplined after that," he said. "There was enough time to recover."

‘False equivalence’

McLaughlin said a key to Trump’s victory was a strategy to maximize anti-Clinton sentiment, score backing of Libertarians and the undecided, and drive turnout among GOP-leaning, working-class voters who didn’t vote in the 2012 presidential race.

"We were combining the Rust Belt with the Sun Belt again and trying to build a new GOP coalition," said McLaughlin, who said Trump’s showing among blacks and Hispanics ought not be dismissed. "That may be the future of the Republican Party. Donald Trump made a beachhead and started all that."

Clinton communications aide Reynolds said she wasn’t startled Trump counterpunched Pakistani immigrants Khizr and Ghazala Khan, parents of U.S. Army captain killed in 2004 during the Iraq war. The couple appeared at the 2016 Democratic National Convention, and challenged Trump’s call for a ban on Muslim immigration. The same instinct that led Trump to attack the Gold Star family surfaced when he responded post-election to performers in "Hamilton" who directed commentary at Vice President-elect Mike Pence, she said.

She theorized Trump’s indignation in the "Hamilton" episode was a bid to draw attention away from news articles noting conflicts of interest arising from his business dealings and impending presidency.

"He is a master of understanding what makes news," Reynolds said.

Palmieri, the top communications director for Clinton, said one of the greatest fears of the campaign was that news outlets would engage in what was referred to as "false equivalence" when exploring flaws of Clinton and Trump. If a reporter wrote five stories damaging to Trump, she said, there was a sense five uncomplimentary stories needed to be filed about Clinton.

The unusual dynamics of this presidential campaign made it difficult for voters to digest categorical differences between the major-party nominees, she said.

"It plagued us every single day until Election Day," Palmieri said.

Glassner, deputy campaign manager for Trump, said the appearance by former U.S. Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas at the Republican National Convention was deeply appreciated by Trump. Dole was the only former GOP nominee for president to show up at the convention.

"He’s a party man through and through," Glassner said. "He’s a very loyal person. We are very, very grateful."