MLS GW26 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

Why do we love fantasy football so much? If you’re doing poorly in the game, it feels like an endless climb – and everything you do makes you second guess your basic knowledge of the sport. And conversely, if you’re doing well, it makes you realize that sometimes pure luck outweighs all of your research. Case in point: of the four teams on a DGW last week, San Jose (the team with double road games) managed to have seven players in the Dream Team. No amount of skill would’ve said that was the proper course of action when Columbus, NYCFC and SKC were also featuring twice. Like I said, sometimes you need a bit of luck.

And so, here we find ourselves in another round with four teams on a DGW – and the options look about as appealing as San Jose did last round. Do we stick to our common sense and shy away from bad teams, or do we get bold and try to find that poor team on a run of good form? Let’s go to the drawing board.

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#1) Know your DGW Teams

This week we have no teams on a bye, but we have Colorado, Chicago, Houston and NYRB playing twice. Ordinarily we’d all go for the pricier NYRB options and consider the other three to be minor inconveniences to have to navigate around. But if last week taught us anything, we would do well to dig a bit deeper into the matter.

#1A — Chicago Fire vs NYRB(H), ORL (A)

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[/three_fourth]Chicago…what do we do with Chicago? Every time you look at the Fire and try to pull out some positive, they turn into garbage right before your eyes. It’s like Cinderella in reverse. At the stroke of midnight, all of that talent that looks so good on paper turns into a pile of deuced-out diapers.

But surely, there must be something that we can pull out of this team that will augment our fantasy squads, right? Harrison Shipp ($8.1) always seems the most likely choice to be picked up, doesn’t he? But when you consider that he hasn’t hit the 5 point mark in eight matches, he doesn’t look like such value anymore. And Shaun Maloney ($9.5) looked to be the main man for a while — he did have a goal in back to back weeks — but he was sat out in the last match because he’s reportedly being shipped to Hull City.

David Accam ($8.8) and Kennedy Igboananike ($7.4) are probably the two that you’ll want to limit your choices to. Accam is the most talented, and fastest, player on the Chicago squad. He’s got the skills, but his finishing for points just isn’t there yet. You can at least hang your hat on the fact that he notched a pair of bonus points in his last game. And Igboananike had two goals and an assist a couple of games ago, but he blanked in his last match against Colorado. Chances are, he will have a better chance in Orlando than he will against NYRB, and for his price, I’d tag Igboananike as the player of choice from Chicago this week. He’s capable, and his price will leave you freed up elsewhere on the pitch.

As far as defense goes, the Fire only have four clean sheets on the year. And does anybody think that they’ll shutout NYRB and Orlando away? Nobody thinks they will, but look what San Jose was able to do. It may be worth taking a flier on a cheap option just to play the lottery with these guys.

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#1B — Colorado vs HOU (H), SKC (H)

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[/three_fourth]Dare I say I’m a bit bullish on the Rapids this week? Look, they aren’t going to score a ton of goals – that’s just not what they do. But they do defend by the skin of their teeth, and a double home fixture will serve them well here in this scenario. And the Colorado defense has been rather remarkable if you think about it; the most goals they’ve conceded in a match has been three, and they’ve only conceded those three goals in two games all year (against LA and a healthier Seattle squad). They also have a very respectable eight clean sheets for the year on top of that. Consider their competition: both Houston and SKC are teams that do have some offensive competency, but they are also a pair of teams that flow in and out of any kind of decent form. So I would tend to give the advantage to the Colorado defense here.

I think Clint Irwin ($5.4) is a solid pick at keeper if you can afford to burn the transfer. And their defenders are all budget picks as well. Bobby Burling only costs $4.7 right now, and he’s been a nailed-on starter as of late. Yet even though Burling scored a goal a couple of matches ago, there really isn’t anything to differentiate this squad of defenders — the only preference you have to consider is how much you want to spend for roughly the same score no matter which defender you choose.

In terms of attack for Colorado, it’s a bit dicier. Colorado’s last five matches have been pretty abysmal for goal scoring. In fact, during those five games, Colorado have played four matches in which they scored a single goal, and one match that saw them shutout. At least they’re consistent. But use that consistency to your advantage. It’s probably not worth loading up on players like Dillon Powers ($7.7) or Gabriel Torres ($7.5). Unless you absolutely feel that SKC are about to concede another huge goal tally, I would avoid selecting Colorado for your midfield and forward positions.

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#1C — Houston vs COL (A), VAN (H)

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[/three_fourth]Houston are really a mixed bag. When you think of a team that will perpetually just kind of be in the middle of things, you think of Houston. Whether you’re talking about the level of talent, league rank or form — the Houston Dynamo are always just in the middle. And it’s hard to pick middle-team talent for a big week such as this. They have the potential to score big fantasy points, and we could look back on this week and think that Houston were the smart play for a variety of reasons. But more than likely, we’ll look back on this week and see a roster full of players that scored 6 or 7 points on a double.

Before you even look at their players, you can see that Houston were given the most “middle” level pair of games that you could choose from. Away to Colorado and home to Vancouver just isn’t a sexy pairing on any level. But it’s what we have to work with this week.

In keeping with this theme then, it should come as no surprise that Tyler Deric ($4.9) is ranked #11 on the list of fantasy goalkeepers points totals. The joke almost writes itself. Deric has five shutouts on the year, and he’ll definitely break the 100 fantasy points mark on his season this week. But there isn’t a ton of positives that you could take away from his season that would make you take Deric over a Luis Robles or Clint Irwin.

The defenders from Houston are also a bit problematic for owners because none of them come at a great value — and nearly all of them are prone to just give you the standard 3-5 point performance on a good night. If I was forced to find a selection to give, I would lean towards Sheanon Williams ($7.7); the Philly transplant at least has three assists on the year. But even that pick would be stretching it for me.

Attacking potential is quite a bit greater for Houston, but there are issues that have to be taken into account. For starters, Will Bruin ($8.1) has ten goals on the year — but he’s been subbed out prior to 80 minutes in each of his previous five matches. So be forewarned that you won’t be getting a 180 minute player by any stretch if you pick up Bruin this week. Brad Davis ($10.2), on the other hand, has a goal and three assists over his last five matches, and he looks to be in better form than what we’ve seen from him at certain points in this year. The problem that Davis has had all year is his price tag. Just to compare, Giovinco could actually crack 200 fantasy points this weekend, and Brad Davis is still trying to get to 100. Maybe in a DGW such as this, Davis’s cost could be justified.

And for the truly adventurous, Erick Torres ($10.0) has been slowly (painfully slow, actually) introduced into the Houston mix, and he could be quite the surprise differential. Whether casual fans know it or not, Torres is the best player that Houston has — and he’ll only need a chance to prove what a talent he is. Let’s not forget, this is the player that actually made Chivas USA even remotely competitive in their final year in the league. I would watch for the starting lineups to be announced on Wednesday, and if Torres finally gets a start, think long and hard about putting him in your squad.

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#1D – NYRB vs CHI (A), DC (H)

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[/three_fourth]NYRB are the sexy pick for this week, no question. The big-named players and higher level of talent will be found with this team for the DGW. But you’re also going to find the higher prices. I would venture to say that the prices for this team are warranted this week given their favorable schedule, so if you’re going to spend heavily on one team, make it this team. NYRB also have that rare distinction of having as many road goals as they do home goals (19 each way), so seeing them travel right out of the gate shouldn’t be a worry for you.

Defensively, the Red Bulls are hot. They’re on a streak of two straight clean sheets and they’re coming up against the right kind of competition to hopefully keep that streak alive. If you’re worried about DC scoring against them, just remember that DC (even though they’ve played 27 matches and sit in first place) have only managed eight road goals all year. For this reason, Luis Robles ($5.7) is probably the best pick this week in goal. But like I said, you’ll have to find that difference in cost if you buy him over Clint Irwin. The only area that you’re going to find a value in the back is with Matt Miazga ($6.0) — and you should expect to see Miazga in most lineups this weekend.

For the attacking positions, it’s really going to come down to your budget after you make your player sales this week. Bradley Wright Phillips is already up to $11.2, and Sacha Kljestan is sitting at a hefty $9.7. BWP will undoubtedly be favored after scoring a goal in each of his last two matches, but he has actually been outpaced by Kljestan by a point in each of the last two games as well. So if you can’t afford BWP, feel safe that Kljestan is a decent second option for you.

And if you’re looking for a cheap punt, you could always try Mike Grella ($6.2). Make no mistake, Grella is no BWP, but he does have an assist in each of his last three matches. His production won’t blow you away, but in a DGW situation, he’s as likely to net you a double digit gain.

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#2 — Buy wildly, there are no consequences

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[/three_fourth]There is a league-wide wildcard coming next week, so there aren’t any mistakes this week that you will have to stick with for any length of time. Granted, we get the wildcard on a week when ten teams are on a bye…but that’s another issue for another article.

If there ever was a week to be bold though, this is it. Maybe you really do want to load up on all Colorado for the week and try to catch a bit of that magic that San Jose showed last week? You could do that and not be penalized for it next round.

This could be the round where your opponents get caught with a few more differential picks than what you would normally see.

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#3 — Forget about the DGW, and just buy LA?

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[/three_fourth]Last week, LA showed us once again why they will probably win the MLS Cup. Of all of the forwards that were on a DGW, Robbie Keane on a single still managed to tie the high score of the round with 21 points. It’s absurd how good that team is every week….that they play at home. This week could be a little bit different since LA is traveling to San Jose. The last time LA played in San Jose, they lost by the score of 3-1. But that was before Gio Dos Santos had arrived on the scene. This next match in San Jose could be totally different.

Really, outside of Giovinco, Robbie Keane is that player you probably have to have on your team regardless of any other conditions or fixtures in the league. And this will be a problem that we’ll have to face over the next seven rounds because LA doesn’t have any more DGW’s. There will be 17 more times that a team will be on a DGW after this round, so we’re going to have to get used to having these LA players in our squads despite all of the big games going on elsewhere. It’s up to each person to decide how to build their team, but given the choice this week between BWP playing twice and Robbie Keane playing once, which do you choose? The easy answer is to say that BWP is the smart pick. The difference between being smart and statistical is that Robbie Keane scored more in one game than BWP has in his last 3.5 matches. So take that as you will.

It’s up to each owner to do what they think best, but it’s a situation that has to be accounted for. So even if you’re unable to fix your squad to accommodate Keane and Giovinco now, make sure that you use the wildcard next round to make the room needed.

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#4 — Who to sell/keep from Round 25?

It’s safe to say that most owners will probably take some kind of point hit this week. I would expect to see probably as many -8’s as -4’s, but you’ll probably see quite a few that are even deeper than that. And why not? If you can bring in just one player that gets you a goal and an assist, you’ve already made up for the point hit. Easier said than done, right? But that’s the general idea.

A few of your players from last week may still serve a purpose though. Columbus is playing away to NYCFC, and there are always goals to be had in NY. And let’s not forget, those two teams are just horrible in defense, so Kei Kamara, Ethan Finlay and David Villa are still solid picks.

SKC will be traveling to Colorado, and I would start your selling there. Teams typically don’t do as well in Colorado, and aside from that, SKC are just a mess right now. Nobody can pinpoint exactly where SKC fell off the rails, but that train is no longer on the tracks.

And San Jose, like I said above, will be entertaining LA. I guarantee there’s nothing like facing a red-hot LA team to change your winning ways. If you have defenders from San Jose, those should be the first to go. But if you have Wondo or Amarikwa, you could reasonably keep them around based on their attacking form.

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#4 — Captain Picks

The Top Tier — BWP — Bradley Wright-Phillips playing twice is still the smart play, don’t get me wrong. I would expect that given the field of the DGW teams this week, BWP gets more than his fair share of captaincy armbands. I don’t think Chicago puts up much of a fight to NY, and DC just don’t travel well.

The Second Tier — Robbie Keane, David Villa, Giovinco — All of these guys are only playing once this week, but all three of these guys could still end up on the Dream Team given the proper conditions. Robbie Keane is simply on fire, and I don’t expect San Jose to put up as strong of a fight against Robbie Keane with GDS buzzing around the field. David Villa could go off for a hat trick at any time in Yankee Stadium, and with a defense like Columbus has, it might just let him. And Giovinco is Giovinco. He’s the maestro. Toronto get Montreal at home this week, and last week Altidore was benched until Giovinco was done playing his minutes. Maybe Toronto finally caught on?

The Differential Pick — Brad Davis — If you feel you must captain a DGW player simply out of principle, Brad Davis is a sneaky pick that could outpace BWP given the right circumstances. It’s a risky pick, but he could pay off for you.

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MLS GW26 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer This article was written by Guy Sanchez (FootyFantastic)

Follow @Guy_M_Sanchez



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Don’t forget that Guy does have his own MLS blog and we highly recommend a visit as it expands even more upon the current GW – http://www.footyfantastic.com/