Pakistan is ground zero for global warming consequences

Abdul Salam | Special to USA TODAY

Show Caption Hide Caption A heatwave has killed 65 people in Pakistan's Karachi A Pakistani welfare organization says the heatwave gripping the region amid widespread power cuts has killed 65 people in Karachi.

Pakistan contributes less than 1 percent of the world's greenhouse gases blamed for causing global warming, yet its 200 million people are among the world's most vulnerable victims of the growing consequences of climate change.

The nation is facing ever-rising temperatures, drought and flooding that threaten health, agriculture, water supplies and hopes for development of a society that ranks in the bottom quarter of nations, based on income per person.

Pakistan is among 10 countries affected most by climate change, according to the 2018 Global Climate Risk Index released by the public policy group Germanwatch.

Bridging the Middle East and South Asia, Pakistan is in a geographic location where average temperatures are predicted to rise faster than elsewhere, increasing 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius) by the year 2100, according to a 2012 World Wildlife Fund report.

This past April 30, the temperature in the southern city of Nawabshah soared to 122.4 degrees Fahrenheit (50.2 degrees Celsius), the hottest day on earth ever recorded in April, the Pakistan Meteorological Department and World Meteorological Organization said. It was even hotter in the southern city of Turbat on May 28, 2017, when the temperature hit a sizzling 128.3 degrees Fahrenheit (53.5 Celsius).

“We are planning to move to other places due to extreme heat in our area," Nawabshah resident Azhar Rashid said in an interview. "We are surprised by every new summer here starting with high temperatures that badly affect our daily routine and jobs.”

So far this year, more than 60 people have died from the heat in Karachi, the country's largest city. Many more die of heat-related illnesses across the country, but exact numbers of deaths are not kept.

In June 2015, more than 1,200 people died from the heat nationwide and 65,000 were treated for heat illnesses, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority for the Karachi region reported.

Depleting water supplies are another problem in a country where 60 percent of the land receives less than 10 inches of rain per year. Rivers are mainly fed by the Hindu Kush-Karakoram Himalayan glaciers, which are melting rapidly due to global warming.

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Muhammad Akmal, a professor at Peshawar Agriculture University, said Pakistan's rising temperatures are also being boosted because forests are being destroyed as people clear areas for housing and other development. The trend also is resulting in less fertile land for farming.

Akmal said global warming is extending summer-like weather to virtually the entire year, from January until November.

At the same time, “the rise in the use of vehicles causes heat and more ozone-destroying gases that transform the environment into a furnace,” he said.

Pakistan, which has the world's sixth-largest population, is projected to add nearly 100 million people by 2050, causing great strains on its resources. Plus, ambitious plans for economic development could mean the country increases carbon emissions by 300 percent over the next 15 years, as more cars clog roads and demand for electricity expands, according to projections.

The country's government has pledged to reduce emissions by 2030, as required by nations that signed the Paris Climate Accord, but it has not said how it will accomplish that given its development hopes.

Feeding the growing population will be a challenge as the melting of glaciers and higher water evaporation rates caused by hotter temperatures will mean less irrigated water and smaller harvests of staples such as wheat and rice.

“Recently we have seen devastating results of this growing mess," said Aamir Amjad, senior program coordinator at the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom, a liberal policy group. "Humans are forced to migrate and switch their livelihoods, the yield of crops has decreased ... (and) "the cycle of extreme weather has either expanded or intensified.”

Despite all these environmental challenges, climate change has not been a major issue debated during the campaign for a new national assembly to be elected Wednesday. Instead, issues such as corruption and improving social services have dominated the debate among candidates.

A record number of Americans now believe in global warming, poll says According to a new poll by University of Michigan's Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy, more Americans than ever now believe that global warming is occurring.

During the last five years, only the Pakistan Movement for Justice party, favored to score gains in the election, focused on environmental issues in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province by launching a program to plant a billion trees to reduce heat across the province.

“We need to teach new generations about the environment and encourage researchers to conduct empirical studies on climate change issues," Amjad said. "Their findings will help to streamline policies.”

A 2017 report by the Asian Development Bank concludes that northern parts of the country will suffer the biggest increases in temperatures and that water per capita will decrease at an alarming rate in coming years.

The report also warned that extreme climate change events, such as heavier rains that cause flooding, will damage the country's gas, oil, and power infrastructure. Warmer temperatures also may affect the efficiency of nuclear plants, it said.

“There is a need to develop drought- and heat-tolerant crops that show optimum performance even with changes in climate patterns,” the report said. It also called for construction of water storage systems, investment in renewable energy, "improved weather forecasting and warning systems, retrofitting of critical energy infrastructure, and construction of dikes or sea walls.”