Saturday, September 14th, 2019 (7:19 am) - Score 7,280

Several industry sources have indicated to ISPreview.co.uk that they now expect the Government to water down Boris Johnson’s (Prime Minister) pledge to cover the United Kingdom in “full fibre” (FTTP) broadband by 2025, which will instead be replaced by “gigabit” or “gigafast” terminology (i.e. delivery by more than just full fibre).

Privately the government appears to be acknowledging something that was obvious to most in this industry from the moment Boris Johnson first called the 2033 aspiration “laughably unambitious,” before adding that he could “unite our country” by delivering “full fibre for all … in five years at the outside”. Similarly expressed later as “fantastic full-fibre broadband sprouting in every household.”

We have already covered in detail why this was never going to be an even remotely realistic target (here), although we fully welcome the greater focus on full fibre that he brought to the table. Since then the Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport (DCMS) has had the perhaps unenviable task of meeting with ISPs in order to try and figure out how they can deliver on such a commitment.

Luckily DCMS has a lot of talented people working within its wings (e.g. the Local Full Fibre Networks / Building Digital UK teams) and as we understand it, following meetings with some major industry players (the usual suspects like Cityfibre, Openreach, Virgin Media and various other stakeholders), there has now been an acceptance of reality at the top that full fibre for all by 2025 is simply not viable.

In our summary of all this last month we concluded that Boris may have to perform somewhat of a political fudge by watering down his definition of “full fibre,“ such as by including other Gigabit (1Gbps+) speed capable technologies like Virgin Media’s hybrid fibre coax network. Virgin already covers a little over half of UK premises and will soon be capable of 1Gbps speeds via the DOCSIS 3.1 upgrade (here).

The adoption of “gigabit” instead of “full fibre” language could also be harnessed to cover an even wider range of technologies than Virgin’s HFC, such as some fixed wireless / 5G networks or potentially even G.fast (e.g. when fed from a nearby remote node on telegraph poles or very near [tens of metres] to homes by a cabinet). Over the past week we did try to get an official comment from DCMS but our attempts were met with silence.

As one industry source told us, “[the government] are not happy, they know fibre is the answer.” Another source couldn’t confirm what others had told us but did say, “we believe that there will need to be a shift … Consumers don’t care what connects them as long as it’s reliable, performs well and there’s enough bandwidth for future household needs.”

The above approach (add Virgin etc.) is more plausible but there still isn’t a magic fix for tackling the final 40-50% of premises in the space of just 5 years (mostly rural, slow to reach any VERY expensive). Boris will need to pull a pretty big rabbit from his hat and we’re keen to see what that looks like, although this is at least more realistic than the original target. On the other hand it raises the question of when we can now expect every home to get access to a full fibre service or if that aspect has now been totally abandoned too.

The signs of this shift in language may already be happening. The recent 2019 Spending Round, specifically its performance indicators section for full fibre, made reference to the “number of premises passed with gigabit-capable networks.” Yesterday a speech by Boris Johnson at Convention of the North in Rotherham similarly saw him say, “And so we in this new government are supporting gigabit broadband – which is a lot I understand – for every home by 2025, eight years earlier than previously promised … Gigabit broadband sprouting in every home.”

The last example above is particularly clear since the Prime Minister is using almost exactly the same language as he did before, albeit with “gigabit” being in place of “full fibre.” Sorry Boris, we did notice.

UPDATE 17th September 2019

After waiting a long time for a response the Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport (DCMS) has finally responded to our hails for clarification.

A DCMS Spokesperson told ISPreview.co.uk: “This Government wants to deliver world-class, gigabit-capable digital infrastructure across the country and will announce further details on how we will achieve this as soon as possible. We are investing over £650 million in full fibre broadband until the end of 2021 and are committed to creating the right opportunities for investment as we speed up the roll-out of this technology.”

Reading between the lines, there’s no mention of that 2025 full fibre for all pledge above (this change in language is of course specifically what we were asking DCMS about) and their primary message is now clearly focused upon delivering “gigabit-capable digital infrastructure across the country.”