Bud Foster’s Aggressive Consistency

By Jim Johnson

SouthernPigskin.com

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His consistency so exceeds the bounds of reason or rationale or even math, there’s not a coach working that couldn’t learn a thing or two from one of the game’s true masters.



Bud Foster is an institution. On staff at Virginia Tech since 1987, when he moved from Murray State with the great Frank Beamer, he ultimately became the defensive coordinator in 1995.

In the two-plus decades since, his defenses have seen 44 players selected in the NFL Draft. Those defenses have also usually been amongst the nation’s elite, and, perhaps most impressively, almost never been bad.

His consistency so exceeds the bounds of reason or rationale or even math, there’s not a coach working that couldn’t learn a thing or two from one of the game’s true masters. Most of the good ones probably already have, in some form or fashion.

As the very sport and program have changed around him, from the proliferation of the dual-threat quarterback (one of the revolutionaries of which he coached against in practice everyday), to the advent and subsequent permeation of more uptempo attacks, not to mention rule changes, both technological and physiological advancements, as well as unceasing personnel attrition -- from players to fellow coaches and, more recently, his own boss -- Foster has adapted and innovated. In the sea of uncertainty that is college football, he is one of only a few constants.

For point of reference, here is where each of his last ten defenses ranked in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (a rating system based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency), S&P+ (an opponent adjusted metric based on efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers), points per drive allowed (excluding first half clock kills and garbage time), and yards per play allowed:

Using the yards per play allowed rankings as a starting point, Foster has ranked outside the top third of FBS teams just twice during that span. However, even in his worst yards/play year, he ranked 24th in FEI, 23rd in S&P+, and allowed the 21st fewest points per drive. His actual worst defense over that stretch, from 2015, still managed to rank in the the top half of each category. That season aside, and excluding a weird FEI year in 2011 (they were 17th in S&P+, 27th in points per drive, and 26th in yards per play), his worst finish in raw yards per play was 34th. By the advanced metrics, his worst was 27th… Usually good (2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, & 2016). Often great (2009, 2013, 2014, & 2017). Never. Bad.

Virginia Tech can’t recruit like Alabama. It doesn’t have the resources of a blue blood program. Foster sparingly even enjoys the luxury of complementing a top tier offense. In light of his circumstances, this level of continuous success is borderline unprecedented. His squad, year in and year out, presents a puzzle that most offensive play callers can’t solve, yet a look inside the numbers outline a few clear principles that are the foundation upon which he has built some of the best defensive campaigns in memory.

This table depicts his defensive rankings, over the past three seasons, in IsoPPP allowed (explosiveness measure of equivalent points per successful play), success rate allowed (percentage of plays that constitute a ‘win’ for the offense -- 50% of the necessary yardage to move the chains or score on 1st down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third & fourth down), drive finishing (points allowed per trip inside the 40-yard line), turnovers gained, stuff rate (percentage of opposing carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage), adjusted line yards (a metric that attempts to separate what an offensive line does or what a defensive line allows from what the ball carrier does, inasmuch as that’s possible), adjusted sack rate (an opponent adjusted measure of sacks per pass attempt), and defensive back havoc rate (tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles per play).

Starting with the all encompassing numbers, in each of the past three seasons, there has been a significant disparity in the explosiveness (IsoPPP) and efficiency (success rate) allowed by those respective units. That’s something that holds true against both the run and the pass, as well. In some cases, the rankings are almost unfathomably far apart. Obviously, this indicates extreme aggressiveness. A number of defensive coordinators around the country have found varying degrees of success with a bend-don’t-break mentality. Foster spits on that with more of a “we can break some, we’ll just break you more” philosophy.

That said, while a defense that presses and throws caution to the wind to the extent that the Hokies do will be susceptible to big plays, limiting offensive efficiency is actually, in a way, the most effective means of limiting offensive explosiveness. As SB Nation’s Bill Connelly, the creator of S&P+, pointed out, big plays are like the the three pointers of college football -- the only way to prevent them is to prevent any successful plays.

Of course, with a team that allows so relatively few successful plays, the chunk gains they do allow will reflect much more poorly in a metric like IsoPPP. That does not mean, however, that Virginia Tech allows more big plays, in total, than more conservative defenses. In fact, Foster’s groups have ranked in the top four in the ACC for fewest gains of 10+ yards allowed in six of the last ten seasons.

Curiously, given their points per drive success, only once in the past three years have they been especially good as the as the field shrinks. That too could, to some extent, be a symptom of his aggressiveness. It’s a worthwhile tradeoff, though, given the overall scoring numbers. Then again, not coincidentally, when they ranked 5th in points per trip inside the 40-yard line allowed (2017), the defense as a whole was the best in that sample size.

Also of note, they did not once, in the past three years, rank higher than 116th in percentage of solo tackles. It’s a myth that turkeys can’t fly (it actually is… science) because these birds fly to the ball on every snap. All of them do. It’s terrifying.

As denoted by those stuff rates, and, relatedly, the allowed success rates and line yards per carry, the aggressiveness pays undeniable dividends in the run game. The explosiveness numbers are, again, misleading here, as they have ranked in the top half of the ACC for fewest rushes of 10+ yards allowed in five of the last seven years.

Same thing goes for the pass defense. Their efficiency is elite, they get after the passer at a well above average clip, and their secondary makes plays like nobody’s business. They also benefit from not usually needing to blitz on passing downs. They ranked 8th and 13th respectively, in 2015 and 2017, in standard down sack rate, as compared to 57th and 84th on passing downs. So, when they knock opposing offenses off schedule, they can actually play it a little safer. It always helps when the pass rush can get there with four, and seemingly always having a defensive line just littered with dudes sure doesn’t hurt -- nor does the assembly line of NFL talent in the defensive backfield.

That’s why there are questions about his 2018 defense. It seems like, based on the last ten years of data: with good talent comes elite production and with adequate talent comes good production. There’s also apparently a pretty high floor, where, regardless of talent, the performance is still above the mean. Granted, to dismiss Foster as player dependent is foolish. His tenets facilitate, channel, and improve what a lesser football mind could very easily mismanage. Nevertheless, returning the second least production in the country doesn’t bode well for anyone, especially when two of those lost starters were first round picks.

No matter, it’s not like Virginia Tech won’t have stars on that side of the ball. They always do. It’s just that no one knows about them yet. Even after what has been the offseason from hell, with CB Adonis Alexander, CB Jeremy Webb, LB Mook Reynolds, and even co-defensive coordinator Galen Scott all unavailable or gone for a variety of reasons ranging from unfortunate to just plain dumb, there is promise abound.

On the defensive line, tackle Ricky Walker is one of the ten best players, regardless of position, in the ACC, and edge rusher Trevon Hill returns after leading the team in sacks, in 2017. Those two speahead a group that brings back five players who posted a sub-30% allowed success rate last year.

Sure, the linebacking corps will have a totally new look, and it can’t be fun trying to fill the shoes of Tremaine Edmunds and Andrew Motuapuaka, but sophomore Dylan Rivers and incoming freshmen Dax Hollifield and Alan Tisdale are all former four-star recruits. Hollifield was even the highest rated player in their most recent signing class, on either side of the ball.

And, in the secondary, Virginia Tech is right up there with Florida State and LSU when it comes to the argument as to who the real “DBU” is. Personnel attrition? Bud Foster’s never heard of it when it comes to defensive backs.

Safety Divine Deablo has more breakout star potential than anyone in the league. He and Reggie Floyd headline a unit that returns five players with a sub-5% marginal efficiency (the difference between a player’s allowed success rate and the expected allowed success rate based on down, distance, and field position) and a sub-.12 marginal explosiveness (same concept but with IsoPPP), both of which are very strong for defensive backs. Deablo, Bryce Watts, and Jovonn Quillen actually all had marginal efficiency and explosiveness rates that were either 0 or negative, albeit on smaller sample sizes. Factor in a few more well regarded prospects like Devon Hunter and Chamarri Conner, and these guys, if nothing else, at least look an awful lot like the types of secondaries people have become accustomed to seeing in Blacksburg.

No, this 2018 iteration will probably not be one of Foster’s better units. The scary thing is, even if it’s one of his worst, that’s still a lot better than many teams can hope for.

It feels like Bud Foster has been around since football was invented. Yet, through it all, he has not only survived, but thrived. He just doesn’t do bad defenses.

Gang tackling, corners in press, and ears pinned back, underestimating this living legend is aggressively stupid.