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The threat of a resurgence of coronavirus could be with us for the next four years, prompting the need for some level of social distancing into 2022, says a new Harvard study.

The research, by a team from Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, says that recurrent winter outbreaks of the virus SARS-CoV-2 (the official name of COVID-19) could continue until 2024.

To contain this and prevent health care facilities from being overwhelmed, the study suggests that prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022 unless a vaccine or improved treatment is found or critical care capacity is increased substantially.

The study, published this week in the journal Science, comes as countries around the world consider easing coronavirus shutdowns. In the U.S., which now has the world’s highest infections and deaths, President Donald Trump cited May 1 as a target, but many state governors are forming regional alliances to set their own dates. In Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said this week that non-essential businesses will remain shut for several more weeks, and Ontario extended its shutdown, which was due to expire on April 23, for another 28 days.