In a campaign where Trump’s charisma helped him rise to the top, his inability to resist picking on people—no matter how small or insignificant—is his Achilles heel. And by taking the bait, Trump lunged right into Hillary Clinton’s “artfully designed trap.”

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-- Fresh polling continues to suggest the voters overwhelmingly believe Clinton prevailed in their first showdown:

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FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast gave Trump a 45.2 percent chance of winning on Monday. Today it gives him a 36.2 percent chance.

Likely voters in New Hampshire say by a three-to-one margin that Clinton won, according to a WBUR poll. (Clinton has forged ahead by 7 points in the Granite State).

Only 20 percent of Michigan voters think Trump prevailed, according to a new Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll. The poll puts Clinton up 7 points in the state, though she leads by 21 points among women.

-- The overall sentiment of media coverage, which had been trending more positive for Trump ahead of the debate, has shifted back to become predominantly negative. The GOP nominee has received three times the amount of coverage that Clinton has since Monday, political scientist John Sides tabulates on his Monkey Cage blog. “Clinton’s coverage since the debate has been much more positive than Trump’s and more positive than she has typically received. Indeed, this has been the most positive coverage she’s received since June.”

-- Conservative Charles Krauthammer argues in his column today that Trump planted a “time bomb” for himself by “smugly” bragging that not paying any federal income tax makes him smart: “His great weakness is his vanity. He is temperamentally incapable of allowing any attack on his person to go unavenged. He is particularly sensitive on the subject of his wealth. So central to his self-image is his business acumen that in the debate he couldn’t resist the temptation to tout his cleverness on taxes. Big mistake. The next day, Clinton offered the obvious retort: ‘If not paying taxes makes him smart, what does that make all the rest of us?; Meanwhile, Trump has been going around telling Rust Belt workers, on whom his electoral college strategy hinges and who might still believe that billionaires do have some obligation to pay taxes, that ‘I am your voice.’ When gaffes like this are committed, the candidate either doubles down … or simply denies he ever said anything of the sort.”

-- Whether or not Trump wilted under the bright lights of the Hofstra stage, with 86 million watching, his messy messaging afterwards has only made things worse. First he blamed a faulty mic. Then he started declaring himself a “landslide” winner. But the attacks on Alicia Machado, in particular, cement his image as a schoolyard bully to undecided voters and reinforce concerns among GOP elites that he cannot avoid picking unwinnable fights. “It is a beauty contest,” Trump said on Fox News, offering the latest excuse for his misogynistic fat-shaming. “You know, I mean, say what you want, Bill (O’Reilly), I mean, they know what they're getting into. It’s a beauty contest!”

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Trump just cannot resist starting feuds with ordinary Americans, a flaw he has displayed by attacking a federal judge for being Hispanic and a Muslim Gold Star father whose son was killed in Iraq. He cannot even resist responding to protesters who are escorted out of his campaign events. Matt Viser recounts on the front page of today’s Boston Globe that time that a man, who had not arrived at his event intending to protest, took exception to Trump’s criticism of people who use food stamps. As the man shouted, police escorted him out. “You know, it’s amazing,” Trump told the crowd. “I mention food stamps and that guy who’s seriously overweight went crazy.”

-- Unfathomably, Trump cannot let this story die down and just move on. Overnight, he posted a flurry of angry tweets attacking CNN and then Machado – guaranteeing that cable news spends another day talking about this.

At 10:16 p.m.:

At 3:20 a.m.:

At 5:14 a.m.:

At 5:19 a.m.:

At 5:30 a.m.

Here is how Clinton's campaign chairman responded:

-- The bigger picture: Trump doesn’t get even. He gets mad. The Clinton campaign did psychological profiling ahead of the debate with the goal of getting under Trump’s skin. It seems very obvious that Trump was urged by some of his advisers not to go after his opponent for her husband’s infidelity. He hinted at it near the end but did not go through with the attack, perhaps thinking he could draw attention to the issue without going there. Then his son and his campaign manager claimed that it was courageous and even chivalrous that he did not bring up Bill’s affairs in front of Chelsea. But Trump himself is clearly fixated on this issue in an unhealthy way that distracts him from what should be his core message (one that could actually win the presidency).

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-- Yesterday in New Hampshire Trump once again renewed his threats to go after Bill’s “sordid” history. “We’ll see what happens,” he told reporters. And Trump Tower blasted out talking points to surrogates earlier in the day encouraging them to name Clinton’s mistresses. It’s easy to believe that Trump is doing this because he’s angry he lost the debate, and he’s letting his emotions get the best of him.

GOP operatives and down-ballot Republicans fear the move will backfire and make HRC a much more sympathetic figure. “We should stay above the fray. There’s plenty of material there,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).

Many of Trump’s closest allies feel this strongly. “It’s totally the wrong direction to go,” Newt Gingrich, who as House Speaker led the charge to impeach the former president, told Karen Tumulty. “He should not let them bait him into a swamp where they can revel in the mud!”

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At the height of the Monica Lewinsky scandal, the then-first lady rode a wave of public sympathy. “Her favorability topped 65 percent in some polls, the highest she ever reached,” Robert Costa and Tumulty note. “Bill Clinton’s own job approval reached 73 percent in the Gallup poll — its highest point — the week that he was impeached by the House, an indication in part that the public saw the punishment as a politically motivated move by the Republicans who controlled Congress.”

-- Emotional attacks have proved to have the most staying power when leveled against Trump. “As Karl Rove used to say back in the day … you beat your opponent not by attacking his weakness but by undermining his strength,” Matt Bai writes on Yahoo. “And emotion … is the only ballast that keeps allowing Trump to bob back up to the surface.” Therefore, to put Trump away for good, “you have to sever Trump’s emotional bond with his voters, or at least strain it.”

-- Danger, Will Robinson: The format for the second debate could be terrible for Trump. All of the aforementioned acrobatics distract from the fact that the next debate is only ten days away. And it’s unclear whether Trump is willing to acknowledge the sheer amount of prep work he must do to rectify his performance before then.

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Paul Waldman on Plum Line argues that the town-hall style of the second debate more naturally plays into Clinton’s strengths: “The questions will be asked by ordinary citizens, and are much less predictable than those asked by a moderator or panel: While they’re almost always substantive, they often raise issues that haven’t been discussed much in the campaign, and can do so from unusual angles. That favors a candidate whose understanding of policy is not only deep but broad.” Moreover, Trump is not accustomed to the town-hall style and it could be awkward if he’s chomping at the bit to retaliate against Clinton and hit harder than he did the first time. Overcompensation seems inevitable. “Just picture the cameras picking up the shocked and disgusted faces of women as he goes after Hillary for Bill’s infidelity, or digs in on his Machado attack,” Waldman writes.

-- There is some buzz that Trump’s advisers are internally pushing the idea of putting Chris Christie in charge of prep. The New Jersey governor is one of "the few" in the inner circle who was "brutally honest" about his shortcomings on Monday, “a source familiar with the discussions” told CNN. Christie also excelled at town halls during his time as a presidential candidate.

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WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING:

-- Leaders and dignitaries from more than 70 countries gathered in Jerusalem for the memorial service of Israeli former Israeli leader Shimon Peres. From William Booth, Sudarsan Raghavan and Ruth Eglash: “President Obama, who was the last to give a eulogy, said that the contribution made by Peres to Israel was ‘so fundamental, so pervasive, it can sometimes be overlooked.’ A younger generation will ‘probably remember him for a peace process that never reached its end’ Obama said, noting that critics on the left wanted Peres to acknowledge Israel’s failings, while those on the right believed he ‘refused to see the true wickedness of world and called him naive.’”

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-- Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also shook hands at the funeral – a brief event that has previously been described as a "one-in-5-years handshake." "Long time, long time," Abbas was quoted as saying to Netanyahu. The Israeli Prime Minister responded: "It's something that I appreciate very much on behalf of our people and on behalf of us." (Rick Noack)

-- Peres told editors at The Jerusalem Post in 2014 that he had to personally intervene to stop Bibi from bombing Iran. The paper held the story until after he passed away.

GET SMART FAST:​​

Federal officials are investigating a train crash that killed one and injured more than 100 after slamming into a Hoboken terminal. New Jersey authorities said it appears to be accidental, but they are working to assess whether equipment failure, an incapacitated operator or other factors may have played a role. ( New Jersey authorities said it appears to be accidental, but they are working to assess whether equipment failure, an incapacitated operator or other factors may have played a role. ( Martine Powers and Michael Laris A scathing Justice Department report finds that the DEA paid confidential informants millions of dollars without appropriate oversight, using sources in ways that “might run afoul of the Constitution.” The 65-page document outlines multiple missteps by the agency, including a case where an Amtrak employee was paid hundreds of thousands of dollars “for information that was available at no cost to the government.” ( The 65-page document outlines multiple missteps by the agency, including a case where an Amtrak employee was paid hundreds of thousands of dollars “for information that was available at no cost to the government.” ( Matt Zapotosky Republican congressional leaders said they might need to revisit a measure that allows victims of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks to sue Saudi Arabia over worries that it will expose U.S. officials to lawsuits abroad. Just one day after Congress overrode President Obama’s veto of the measure, Mitch McConnell said there could be “unintended ramifications” and the issue needs “further discussion.” He blamed the administration for not making a forceful enough case. This infuriated the White House, which says its emissaries have been relaying these very concerns for weeks. White House spokesman Josh Earnest called McConnell’s comments a “deeply embarrassing” display of “rapid-onset buyer’s remorse.” Just one day after Congress overrode President Obama’s veto of the measure, Mitch McConnell said there could be “unintended ramifications” and the issue needs “further discussion.” He blamed the administration for not making a forceful enough case. This infuriated the White House, which says its emissaries have been relaying these very concerns for weeks. White House spokesman Josh Earnest called McConnell’s comments a “deeply embarrassing” display of “rapid-onset buyer’s remorse.” (Karoun Demirjian and David Nakamura) Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte likened his violent war on crime to the Holocaust, saying he is “happy to slaughter” millions of drug addicts just like Adolph Hitler "massacred" millions of Jewish people. "Hitler massacred three million Jews... Now, there's three million drug addicts. I'd be happy to slaughter them," he said. Since assuming office in July, Duterte has overseen a bloody crackdown on drug users, leading to the death of at least 3,300 people at the hands of police and assassins. ( "Hitler massacred three million Jews... Now, there's three million drug addicts. I'd be happy to slaughter them," he said. Since assuming office in July, Duterte has overseen a bloody crackdown on drug users, leading to the death of at least 3,300 people at the hands of police and assassins. ( Emily Rauhala The unarmed black man fatally shot by police in El Cajon had been ordered twice to be deported back to Uganda for criminal charges. The 38-year-old was ultimately allowed to remain in the U.S. after Uganda refused to accept him, but the issue has added another layer of complexity to the political fallout from his death. ( The 38-year-old was ultimately allowed to remain in the U.S. after Uganda refused to accept him, but the issue has added another layer of complexity to the political fallout from his death. ( Tony Perry Cyber experts are sounding the alarm that Maryland’s new online absentee-ballot system is “dangerously vulnerable” to tampering and privacy invasions. (Josh Hicks) The Obama administration agreed to support the lifting of U.N. sanctions on Iranian banks the same day that Tehran released four American citizens from prison. A document was signed to the effect in Geneva on January 17, along with one that committed the U.S. to dropping criminal charges against 21 Iranian nationals and another pledging to “immediately transfer” $400 million in cash to the regime. ( A document was signed to the effect in Geneva on January 17, along with one that committed the U.S. to dropping criminal charges against 21 Iranian nationals and another pledging to “immediately transfer” $400 million in cash to the regime. ( Wall Street Journal Russia dismissed U.S. threats to suspend plans for coordinated counterterrorism operations in Syria, charging the Obama administration with leveling “groundless accusations” even as they continue their week-long bombing campaign in Aleppo. ( charging the Obama administration with leveling “groundless accusations” even as they continue their week-long bombing campaign in Aleppo. ( Karen DeYoung U.N. leaders condemned an unmanned American airstrike that they said killed 15 civilians in eastern Afghanistan, calling for a “complete” investigation of the effort. ( calling for a “complete” investigation of the effort. ( Pamela Constable An Afghan warlord signed a peace agreement with President Ashraf Ghani, urging opposition parties in Kabul to pursue political goals through “peace” rather than violence. But many remain vehemently opposed to pardoning the wanted terrorist, adamant that his return would spark old political tensions. ( . But many remain vehemently opposed to pardoning the wanted terrorist, adamant that his return would spark old political tensions. ( Pamela Constable The Supreme Court agreed to decide whether a federal law that bars registration of offensive trademarks violates free speech. The case will have direct implications on the Washington Redskins. (Robert Barnes) A satellite imaging firm says China has stockpiled some 600 million barrels of crude oil. The number quadruples currently widely used estimates and suggests the country may have as much on tap as the U.S. ( The number quadruples currently widely used estimates and suggests the country may have as much on tap as the U.S. ( Steven Mufson Amnesty International accused the Sudanese army of using chemical weapons against civilians, alleging that 30 such attacks, including some targeting very young children, have been carried out in the past eight months. Officials estimate the brutal attacks may have killed up to 250 people in the region. ( alleging that 30 such attacks, including some targeting very young children, have been carried out in the past eight months. Officials estimate the brutal attacks may have killed up to 250 people in the region. ( AP A Tennessee college student was arrested after donning a gorilla mask and handing out bananas at a Black Lives Matter protest. (Susan Svrluga) The superintendent of Yosemite National Park has stepped down from his post amid a harassment investigation. His decision comes just days after 18 park staffers came forward with complaints of a toxic work environment. ( His decision comes just days after 18 park staffers came forward with complaints of a toxic work environment. ( LA Times Can sweets make bees happy? A new study on bee feelings (yes, that is a thing) suggests the insects feel elevated levels of optimism after snacking on a sweet treat, much like a chocolate bar might affect a human being. ( much like a chocolate bar might affect a human being. ( New York Times A feminist bookstore in Oregon is protesting “Portlandia,” banning the cast of Fred Armisen’s hit comedy show from filming there after six seasons. It is unclear what soured the years-long relationship, but the store now bears a new window sign featuring the name of the show, paired with some other choice expletives. ( It is unclear what soured the years-long relationship, but the store now bears a new window sign featuring the name of the show, paired with some other choice expletives. ( Willamette Week Some pet owners are protesting that Halloween costumes for dogs are too gendered. Stores, for instance, sell nurse's outfits or cowgirl chaps for female dogs, but male dogs gets to be doctors and police officers. These people say this is sexist, and they're trying to organize a boycott. ( Stores, for instance, sell nurse's outfits or cowgirl chaps for female dogs, but male dogs gets to be doctors and police officers. These people say this is sexist, and they're trying to organize a boycott. ( Abha Bhattarai

THE DAILY DONALD:

-- Trump’s charitable foundation has never obtained the certification that New York law requires before charities can solicit money from the public, according to the state attorney general’s office. Another scoop from David Fahrenthold: “Under the laws in New York, where the [Trump Foundation] is based, any charity that solicits more than $25,000 a year from the public must obtain a special kind of registration beforehand. Charities as large as Trump’s must also submit to a rigorous annual audit that asks — among other things — whether the charity spent any money for the personal benefit of its officers. If New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman finds that Trump’s foundation raised money in violation of the law, he could order the charity to stop raising money immediately. [Trump could also be forced] to return money that his foundation has already raised.”

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-- Jeb Bush suggested to attendees at a Manhattan Institute luncheon that he's voting for Gary Johnson, according to the New York Daily News' Cam Joseph. “Bush joked about ‘President Johnson’ during a lunch focused on education reform … and in a private conversation before his speech strongly recommended another person present should vote for the gaffe-prone Libertarian nominee. ‘There was an old man talking to Jeb across the table and said, 'I can't bring myself to vote for Hillary and Trump,' and Jeb looked at him and mouthed the word 'Johnson,' silently,’ one person within earshot told the Daily News. ‘If I did get a call several weeks after the election, what would I tell President Johnson — I mean, President whoever,’ Bush said to laughs during the speech. A Bush spokeswoman didn't dispute the comments, though she denied Bush has made up his mind.” His dad has told people he'll vote for Clinton.

-- USA Today’s Editorial Board broke its no-endorsement policy for the first time ever after its members unanimously agreed that Trump is totally unfit for the presidency. “Whether through indifference or ignorance, Trump has betrayed fundamental commitments made by all presidents since the end of World War II,” the board writes. “From the day he declared his candidacy 15 months ago through this week’s first presidential debate, Trump has demonstrated repeatedly that he lacks the temperament, knowledge, steadiness and honesty that America needs from its presidents.”

-- Howard Stern acknowledged Trump was “kinda for the Iraq war” during a 2002 appearance on his show, discussing for the first time the Republican nominee’s reversal on the issue. From Buzzfeed: “I was up late watching the debate,” Stern said. “I hung in until about 10:30 almost, heard my name mentioned, and I went to sleep. It was kinda thrilling. Yeah, oh yeah. Well, it always comes up because, you know, Trump was on our show years ago and said yeah, you know, he was kind of for the Iraq war, us going into Iraq. He was saying he really wasn’t for it, and so they were forced to mention my name. Yeah. It was cool. Good promotion.”

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-- Trump attacked the FBI for granting immunity to Clinton staffers during the investigation of her private email server, suggesting (without evidence) that his Democratic rival may have been secretly granted immunity. "They gave so much immunity, there was nobody left to talk to. There was nobody left, except Hillary. They probably gave her immunity, too," Trump said in New Hampshire, dubbing the group the “FBI Immunity Five.” "Do you think Hillary got immunity? ... She got something!" (Jenna Johnson)

-- Ex-manager Corey Lewandowski took an undisclosed lump sum severance payment from Trump so that he will no longer appear in the campaign's FEC reports. He said he was owed $20,000 a month through the election. That has fueled questions about the propriety of CNN keeping him on their payroll.

-- “Trump, press-shy? The once ubiquitous candidate is moving away from media,” by Paul Farhi: “All of a sudden, he seems to have become press-shy. The man who boosted his candidacy during the primaries by seeming to be everywhere at once in the media has given relatively few interviews to national news outlets in recent weeks other than Fox News. The Republican presidential nominee’s last news conference was on July 27, which means, as of Thursday, he’s gone more than two full months without one. Trump has kept up his once-frantic media appearances with only one network, Fox News Channel. On Wednesday, he phoned in to the ‘Fox and Friends’ morning program. And in the evening he chatted up Bill O’Reilly on ‘The O’Reilly Factor.’ In addition, he is a semiregular guest on Sean Hannity’s prime-time Fox program. But Trump has all but disappeared from venues he frequently appeared on during the primaries.”

DONALD SAYS HE'D RUN GOVERNMENT LIKE HIS BUSINESSES. Four must-reads about that...

-- Los Angeles Times, “Trump wanted to fire women who weren't pretty enough, say employees at his California golf club,” by Matt Pearce: “He wanted only the pretty ones, his employees said (as part of a lawsuit). After the Trump National Golf Club in Rancho Palos Verdes opened for play in 2005, its world-famous owner didn’t stop by more than a few times a year to visit the course hugging the coast of the Pacific. When Trump did visit, the club’s managers went on alert. They scheduled the young, thin, pretty women on staff to work the clubhouse restaurant — because when Trump saw less-attractive women working at his club … he wanted them fired. Initially, Trump gave this command ‘almost every time’ he visited. ... A similar story is told by former Trump employees in a 2012 labor relations lawsuit brought against one of Trump’s development companies in L.A. The employees’ declarations in support of the lawsuit … show the extent to which they believed Trump … pressured subordinates at one of his businesses to create and enforce a culture of beauty, where female employees’ appearances were prized over their skills.”

-- Newsweek’s cover story alleges that Trump knowingly violated the U.S. trade embargo on Cuba in the 1990’s: “Documents show that the Trump company spent a minimum of $68,000 for its 1998 foray into Cuba at a time when the corporate expenditure of even a penny in the Caribbean country was prohibited without U.S. government approval. But the company did not spend the money directly. Instead, with Trump’s knowledge, executives funneled the cash for the Cuba trip through an American consulting firm [called Seven Arrows] … Once the business consultants traveled to the island and incurred the expenses for the venture, Seven Arrows instructed senior officers with Trump’s company … how to make it appear legal by linking it after the fact to a charitable effort. At the time, Americans traveling to Cuba had to receive specific U.S. government permission. … Without obtaining a license from the federal OFAC before the consultants went to Cuba, the undertaking by Trump Hotels would have been in violation of federal law.”

The report could become a significant political liability for Trump among older Cuban Americans in Florida, who have expressed disdain for Obama’s decision to open relations with the country earlier this year, "It is never a good thing when voters feel played and find out the candidate they are supporting is a hypocrite on an issue that carries the emotion that Cuba policy does,” said Florida-based conservative strategist Ana Navarro. Jose DelReal explains. "It is never a good thing when voters feel played and find out the candidate they are supporting is a hypocrite on an issue that carries the emotion that Cuba policy does,” said Florida-based conservative strategist Ana Navarro.

Marco Rubio urged the Trump campaign to answer questions about the case. “The article makes some very serious and troubling allegations. I will reserve judgment until we know all the facts and Donald has been given the opportunity to respond,” the Florida senator said in a statement.

-- Trump told the Securities and Exchange Commission that “distress” caused by the 9/11 terror attacks should earn him leniency in a fraud probe. From the Wall Street Journal’s Reid Epstein and Dave Michaels: “When his casino company was facing a civil fraud investigation over its accounting practices, the New York businessman asked the [SEC] to show mercy because of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Mr. Trump’s December 2001 plea, revealed for the first time … showed how Mr. Trump and his attorneys aggressively resisted the SEC’s claim that [the company’s] conduct amounted to fraud. The company’s lawyers argued that its cooperation with the SEC’s probe and the distress caused by the terrorist attacks ought to win it some leniency. Mr. Trump and his lawyers didn’t get the deal they sought, but the SEC also didn’t impose a financial penalty. Instead, the settlement called for Mr. Trump’s company to ‘cease and desist’ further misconduct." Twelve days after the SEC announced the settlement, Trump wrote to then-Chairman Harvey Pitt to thank him. “We will work very hard to make sure that this situation does not occur again.”

-- Trump’s Atlantic City casinos lost jobs at a greater rate than their nearby rivals, while Trump continued to profit personally. “An analysis by Temple University law professor Jonathan Lipson ranked Trump-branded casinos ‘the worst’ among their peers when it came to jobs over a 14-year period," Peg Brickley and Alexandra Berzon report in the Wall Street Journal. "Mr. Lipson, a bankruptcy scholar, found that Trump casinos shed some 7,400 jobs between 1997 and 2010. That works out, on average, to job losses per casino of 900—37% higher than at other Atlantic City gambling venues in the same period. The Trump casinos on average saw a revenue decline of 42% between 1999 and 2010, compared with a 27% decline for competing gambling halls, according to the Lipson study. ... A review of financial documents from Mr. Trump’s casino days … found Mr. Trump personally netted at least $135 million from his casinos, even as the entities he operated repeatedly sought bankruptcy protection from creditors.”

THE DAILY HILLARY:

-- Clinton is announcing plans for a new national service initiative today, seeking to appeal to millennials during her Florida campaign swing. From John Wagner: The Clinton camp has provided few details about what she plans to propose during her speech, but said the initiative is geared towards voters under 30 and reflect Clinton’s belief that “people want to pitch in and help, whether by rebuilding schools, cleaning up neighborhoods, helping people find jobs or families find housing or any of a million other kinds of service Americans perform every day.”

-- The Democratic nominee expressed doubts about whether the U.S. should go forward with President Obama’s trillion-dollar nuclear upgrade plan, according to leaked audio, breaking with a key White House defense policy during a February fundraising event. From the New York Times’ David Sanger and William Broad: “Mrs. Clinton also suggested she would be far tougher against foreign nations that hack into American computer networks and would kill one of the Pentagon’s pet projects, a nuclear-tipped cruise missile. ‘The last thing we need,’ she told the audience, ‘are sophisticated cruise missiles that are nuclear armed.’ At a moment when Mrs. Clinton and the Obama administration have warned that Russia is trying to influence the American election, the mysterious release of the tape is also certain to raise new questions about the scope of attacks on the Democratic National Committee and the Clinton campaign. A former Defense Department official present at the fund-raiser … verified the contents of the tape, but also suggested its release was part of the same hacking campaign that exposed D.N.C. emails.”

-- Clinton campaigned in Iowa yesterday, hoping to win early votes from politically-difficult terrain that firmly favors her Republican rival. From Anne Gearan and Abby Phillip: “Iowa’s lengthy early-voting window makes it the first battleground state to begin recording ballots this year, and it is among only a few states that allow weeks of in-person voting ahead of Election Day. Democrats hope to use an advantage in organizing power to return the state to their column. ‘We are starting to vote today in Iowa,’ Clinton said. ‘We have 40 days to win an election that’s going to affect the next 40 years of our country.’”

The visit comes as Clinton’s team mounts similar early-voting efforts in North Carolina and Nevada. She also plans to emphasize the issue in Ohio next week. “Early voting is seen as a solution for voters with unpredictable schedules, including lower-wage workers who are more likely to vote Democratic,” Phillip and Gearan write. “This year, Clinton also hopes it is an antidote to a lack of enthusiasm among some Democrats, including onetime Sanders supporters who remain cool to Clinton. Early voting is also seen as her best hope to eke out victories in red states such as Georgia and Arizona.”

-- More than 40 prominent Republicans and independents endorsed Clinton, with a list of high-profile public officials – including three former congressmen, a White House ethics lawyer, and a former Situation Room director – announcing their support for the Democratic presidential nominee on a conference call. (John Wagner)

THE WORLD LEADER QUESTION:

-- In a stunning answer, Trump called Angela Merkel “a great world leader,” praising the German chancellor whom he has regularly assailed on the campaign trail and accused of “ruining” her country. “Well, I think Merkel is a really great world leader, but I was very disappointed ... with the whole thing on immigration. I think it’s a big problem,” Trump told New England Cable News, when asked to name a world leader he respects (the same question that tripped up Johnson). “I was always a Merkel person. But I think she made a very tragic mistake a year and a half ago.” Just last month, Trump sought to draw an unflattering comparison between Merkel and Clinton, calling Germany’s immigration plan a “disaster.” (Jose DelReal)

-- Reporters asked Clinton the same question, and she too said Merkel -- but that is not surprising. "Oh, let me think," the former secretary of state joked, theatrically. "No, look, I like a lot of the world leaders. One of my favorites is Angela Merkel, because I think she’s been an extraordinarily strong leader during difficult times in Europe which has obvious implications for the rest of the world, most particularly our country. Her leadership and steadiness on the euro crisis and her bravery in the face of the refugee crisis is something that I am impressed by." (Anne Gearan)

-- Gary Johnson tried to spin his latest "Aleppo gaffe":

-- The Green Party candidate named a member of the Canadian House of Commons, a member of Brazil's Landless Rural Workers Movement and the leader of the Labour Party in Britain:

THE BATTLEGROUNDS:

-- “Congressional races head into homestretch,” by Paul Kane: “Congressional leaders anxiously left town Thursday for the five-week march to Election Day with some trying to dial down expectations as they brace for the political fallout from an election that could deliver the narrowest margins on Capitol Hill in at least 15 years. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell pointed to seven races that are going down to the wire, mostly across Midwest. 'Knock-down drag-out, sort of like a knife fight in a phone booth,' he said. “Democrats expressed confidence at their electoral prospects but they have become more restrained in their optimism as hopes that the controversial campaign being run by [Trump] would lead to major losses for GOP congressional candidates have faded a bit.”

Minority Whip Steny Hoyer predicts Democrats will pick up 20 House seats, which would be very significant: “It is not beyond the realm of possibility that we take back the House if there’s a wave election created. Right now, we don’t see that.”

-- “Here comes the Republican Senate super PAC blitz,” scoop by Matea Gold: “The Republicans' central Senate super PAC is plowing $21 million more into six key races in the coming weeks as the fight for control of the chamber moves to states more hospitable to GOP candidates. The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC that is part of the American Crossroads suite of GOP big-money groups, is expanding its television buys in New Hampshire, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada and Pennsylvania … At the same time, the group is cutting back most of its planned spending in Ohio, where incumbent Republican Sen. Rob Portman has widened his lead over former governor Ted Strickland. ‘The battle lines are shifting rapidly,’ said Steven Law, the super PAC's president and a former chief of staff to [McConnell].’” Here's a breakdown of where the Senate Leadership Fund is investing its funds and Law's assessment of the state of play:

New Hampshire --GOP incumbent Kelly Ayotte vs. Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan: $22.8 million (an increase of $7 million). "The terrain is tough and Maggie Hassan is probably one of the Democrats' better recruits,” said. Law “[But] we actually feel like the dynamics in that race are starting to improve in our favor.”

North Carolina --GOP incumbent Richard Burr vs. Democratic challenger Deborah Ross: "It's a very tight, competitive race," he said. "The battle at the gubernatorial level is causing some turbulence.”

Pennsylvania--GOP incumbent Pat Toomey vs. Democratic challenger Katie McGinty: $7.5 million (an increase of $1 million). "I think is some of the toughest terrain we have to fight in this cycle, but our view of the race is Toomey is doing remarkably well … and we think we can make up significant ground," Law said.

-- “He fought in World War II. He died in 2014. And he just registered to vote in Virginia," by Laura Vozzella: “The FBI and local police are investigating how at least 19 dead Virginians were recently re-registered to vote in this critical swing state. One case came to light after relatives of a deceased man received a note congratulating him for registering, Rockingham County Commonwealth’s Attorney Marsha Garst said Thursday. Republicans in the state House of Delegates, who in recent years have supported tighter voter ID laws, held a conference call with reporters to call attention to the investigation. ‘Oftentimes we hear our Democratic colleagues suggest that voter fraud doesn’t exist in Virginia, or it’s a myth,’ House Speaker William J. Howell (R-Stafford) said. ‘This is proof that voter fraud not only exists but is ongoing and is a threat to the integrity of our elections.’ House Minority Leader David J. Toscano (D-Charlottesville) said the case was not proof of voter fraud because no one had actually managed to cast a vote in the names of the dead.” -- “New York Times A1, "Ohio, Long a Bellwether, Is Fading on the Electoral Map,” by Jonathan Martin: “After decades as one of America’s most reliable political bellwethers, an inevitable presidential battleground that closely mirrored the mood and makeup of the country, Ohio is suddenly fading in importance this year. [Clinton has not been to the state since Labor Day, and aides said she will not be back until next week] … effectively acknowledging how difficult they think it will be to defeat [Trump] here. Ohio has not fallen into step with the demographic changes transforming the U.S., growing older, whiter and less educated than the nation at large. It is a jarring change for political veterans here, who relish being at the center of the country’s presidential races: Because of newer battleground states, Mrs. Clinton can amass the 270 electoral votes required to win even if she loses Ohio.” “When you look at the diversity of America 30 to 40 years ago, Ohio was a pretty close approximation of the country,” said Michael Curtin, a Democratic state legislator. “It no longer is.”

WAPO HIGHLIGHTS:

-- “They put us through hell’: A Marine abused at boot camp explains why he spoke out,” by Dan Lamothe: “Former Pvt. Thomas Jacob Weaver was in bed late one night … when several drill instructors burst into his platoon’s room. One of them demanded to know where he could find ‘the terrorist.’ Weaver knew immediately who he was talking about: a fellow Marine recruit who was Muslim. ‘We heard the door slam, and then we heard screaming, and then we heard loud noises, and then they left,’ Weaver said. ‘And then I saw [the recruit] come back half-naked … And he told us that they had stuck him in the dryer for a couple of minutes and let him spin.’ That night in July 2015 was one of the last experiences for Weaver at Parris Island, S.C., one of the military’s best-known boot camps.” Within months, he began suffering a breakdown, and was released with an “other-than-honorable discharge.” “Weaver was the first to step forward with allegations that have now spawned the biggest investigation at Parris Island in decades and prompted concerns among defense officials and lawmakers about how the service’s boot camps are run.”

-- “Obama administration may use obscure fund to pay billions to ACA insurers,” by Amy Goldstein: “The Obama administration is maneuvering to pay health insurers billions of dollars the government owes under the Affordable Care Act, through a move that could circumvent Congress and help shore up the president’s signature legislative achievement before he leaves office. Justice Department officials have privately told several health plans suing over the unpaid money that they are eager to negotiate a broad settlement, which could end up offering payments to about 175 health plans selling coverage on ACA marketplaces … The start of negotiations came amid an exodus of health plans from the insurance exchanges that are at the heart of the law. More than 10 million Americans have gained coverage through the marketplaces …But many insurers are losing money on their new customers, who tend to be relatively sick and expensive to treat. As a result, some smaller plans have been driven out of business and a few major ones are defecting from exchanges for the coming year.”

SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ:

Check out this list of candidate endorsements by newspapers:

Amusingly, Trump has an advertisement next to USA Today's editorial calling him unfit for office:

Another Trump item manufactured overseas:

Twitter thinks Rosie O'Donnell should follow Trump:

The Final Five gymnasts took over the White House's Instagram account:

Charles Grassley has a new hat reflecting one of his most successful unintentional memes:

It all started with this tweet:

Charles Schumer held Lou Gehrig's mitt:

Vicky Hartzler has new kittens in the family:

Finally, here's a photo of more than a dozen giant panda cubs in China:

HOT ON THE LEFT: “Officials: West York (Pennsylvania) mayor should resign after racist posts,” from the York Dispatch: “Several West York borough council members have called on Mayor Charles Wasko to step down in light of racist posts he has made on Facebook.” Wasko has posted several pictures on Facebook this year that council members took issue with: One features a picture of a wheelbarrow full of apes with the words 'Aww ... moving day at the Whitehouse has finally arrived.' Another is a photo of a monkey gritting its teeth, to which Wasko added the comment, 'Most think it is Obama's picture......sorry its Moochelles baby photo,' presumably referring to Michelle Obama. Council president Shawn Mauck said this was the first he'd heard about issues regarding the mayor's posts. He was shocked when he pulled up the mayor's publicly visible profile and read them. ‘I almost don't know what to say,’ said Mauck … ‘I kind of want to throw up.’” HOT ON THE RIGHT: “Female chess players forced to wear hijab as governing body awards world championship to Iran,” from The Telegraph: “The world's top female chess players have reacted with horror after being told they must compete at next year's world championship wearing a hijab. Within hours of Iran being revealed as its host country, the prestigious event was plunged into crisis as it emerged players taking part face arrest if they don't cover up. In response, Grandmasters lined up to say they would boycott the 64-player knock-out and accused the game's scandal-hit governing body Fide of failing to stand up for women’s rights. Fide's Commission for Women's Chess, meanwhile, called on participants to respect ‘cultural differences’ and accept the regulations … [Meanwhile], players claim by awarding the event to Iran Fide is turning a blind eye to sexual discrimination.”

DAYBOOK:

On the campaign trail: Trump campaigns in Novi, Mich.; Pence is in Fort Wayne, Ind. Clinton holds rallies in Fort Pierce and Coral Springs, Fla.

At the White House: Obama flies back to D.C. after attending the memorial service and a private ceremony for former Israeli President Shimon Peres. Biden speaks at a DSCC event in New York.

On Capitol Hill: The Senate and House are out.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “He is so under-educated on the issues. He's a danger to the republic.” -- Glenn Beck on Trump

NEWS YOU CAN USE IF YOU LIVE IN D.C.:

-- “A peek of sunshine may be all we get. That’s if we’re lucky,” the Capital Weather Gang forecasts. “Breaks in shower bands, which should dominate the day, are possible but we cannot rule out an occasional downpour here and there. Intensity and coverage should generally be lower than recently. Should. Mid-60s to around 70 is as high as raindrops, cloud cover, and a 10-20 mph northeasterly Atlantic fetch will allow.”

-- The Nationals beat the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-3.

-- Graduation rates for D.C public school students spiked to an all-time high in 2016, with 69 percent of seniors earning their diplomas within four years. The number puts the city’s school system closer to its ambitious graduation rate goal of 75 percent. (Alejandra Matos)

VIDEOS OF THE DAY:

Chuck Todd confronted Trump senior adviser Jason Miller about the campaign touting unscientific polling after the debate (click to watch):

Watch CollegeHumor's spoof of the moment Trump talked up his temperament at the debate:

Michelle Obama helped tape a commercial for FAFSA.gov with CollegeHumor:

Israel is mourning Shimon Peres:

Clinton's campaign cut together this video of the Obamas, Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders campaigning for Hillary: