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So, you’re sitting at your computer with money to invest.

You have made some good money already in the market, but you want more.

Cryptocurrencies have reached a record $185 billion in market value after the bitcoin surge, with the inevitable $200 billion mark right around the corner.

The price movement of top currencies remains a mystery. But it doesn’t have to be.

THE PAIN OF UNCERTAINTY

Cryptocurrencies are volatile, irrational beasts.

Simple methods of forecasting grossly over/underestimate the potential of a volatile currency.

For example, moving averages are used frequently to estimate future prices. Moving averages, however, suffer from many pitfalls that make them poor estimators of volatile markets.

Every great and successful investor has a plan. You will add one more tool to your arsenal today.

A BETTER METHOD FOR ESTIMATING CRYPTO PRICES

In my prior article about estimating the movement of Bitcoin Prices, I spoke of a method that is used frequently in the stock world to estimate prices.

This method is a Monte Carlo simulation using the geometric Brownian motion model.

I won’t cover off on the full methodology here, but essentially I am going to:

Get historical daily prices for 10 top cryptocurrencies Calculate daily returns Simulate a year Simulate a year many times

By the end of the article, you will have the following:

A one-year simulation of top cryptocurrencies

Likely price range of each cryptocurrency

A downloadable model to complete yourself

A note on forecasting, simulations, and recommendations: Monte Carlo simulations are to be used as guidelines and tools, not as gospel. I am not offering financial or investing advice.

BITCOIN

What is Bitcoin?

You know what Bitcoin is, stop it.

One-Year Simulation

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times