I was now very agitated about these findings. I kept on restlessly asking myself: is there anyway we could get an authentic empirical validation, based on real, not polled, data?

Then a brainwave hit me. Since January this year, there have been a large number of bye-elections scattered all over the country. What if I compared this treasure trove of actual voting data with what CSDS’s poll captured?

Fortuitously, the time period had a perfect match, from January through May this year.