Recent Russian media coverage and official remarks indicate that a new round of fighting for rebel-held east Aleppo is imminent. Current statements and developments are consistent with past trends that have preceded renewed Russian offensives, including in Aleppo itself. Given the evidence available, a new round of heavy Russian bombardment on opposition areas of Aleppo in support of a major regime ground offensive is highly likely.

On 20 Oct., a unilateral Russian-declared ‘humanitarian pause’ went into effect over Aleppo. The ceasefire’s purpose was to allow civilians to exit the besieged eastern quarters of the city, with the same offer extended to insurgents who wished to lay down their arms. Initially lasting eight hours, the truce was eventually extended to a total of three days, during which time Russian and Syrian airstrikes were halted. While Russian authorities announced the transfer of hundreds of civilians from east Aleppo (with UN aid) and the surrender of large numbers of militants, the UN appeared to be uninvolved in the initiative, and few rebels chose amnesty. No aid entered east Aleppo during the pause.

As the ‘humpause’ (гумпауза) came into effect, Moscow’s motivations began to come to light. Just prior to the start of the halt, the head of Russia’s General Operational Administration of the Russian Armed Forces Sergei Rudskoi called the operation ‘the last chance for terrorists to save their own lives.’ Russian Ambassador to the UN Vitaly Churkin followed this with a remark that the failure of Nusra to abandon Aleppo would have ‘unpleasant consequences’ for the group. Almost immediately following the ceasefire’s beginning, Russian media began reporting on Nusra snipers firing on the humanitarian corridors that had been established. Roughly 24 hours into the pause, the Russian state-affiliated outlet Lenta claimed that ‘over 1,200 militants,’ including tanks and some thirty suicide bombers, were massing for an attack on the city’s western environs. The pro-Russian ANNA News filed a report from the Dahiyat al-Assad area, where Syrian soldiers told them they were expecting an attack. This was shortly followed by an announcement by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that ‘all militants in Aleppo are subordinate to Nusra,’ implying collective responsibility for ceasefire violations. On the evening of 22 Oct., the humanitarian pause came to an end, as Russian experts blamed the US for the continuation of conflict while Russian officials announced that no new negotiations on Syria were planned.

Syrian soldiers interviewed by ANNA News on 22 Oct. indicate the locations of nearby rebel positions. (Source)

Moscow’s justification for its participation in the conflict is the need to aid the Syrian authorities to reclaim their territory from ‘illegal armed groups’ (незаконные бандформирования, a term widely used during the Chechen wars), primarily extremist factions. Russia has long called for the US to separate the moderate opposition from terrorist groups (primarily Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, which Russia still refers to by its previous name of Jabhat al-Nusra). Moscow’s frustration with the intransigence of the international community on the issue grew in early October, when a resolution proposed to the UN Security Council on the exit of Nusra from Aleppo was blocked by the US, UK and France. The US’s failure to delineate moderate and extremist groups is seen as a combination of willful ignorance and proof of the Kremlin’s view that there is no meaningful distinction between Nusra and the many other opposition factions that fight alongside it. This can be clearly seen in maps published by Russian state news organs, which routinely label all rebel-held territory as ‘Jabhat al-Nusra and allies,’ or simply ‘Nusra.’ Given this viewpoint, it’s fairly uncontroversial to assume that Russia has few qualms with annihilating or forcing the capitulation of rebels in Aleppo through overwhelming bombardment, much the same as it did in Grozny, Chechnya in 2000. The Russian Embassy to the United States has even openly compared Aleppo to Grozny, citing the latter, rebuilt with massive federal funding after being flattened, as a favourable example of Russian-engineered peace.

The Russian Embassy to the United States advocates for a Grozny solution in Aleppo. (Source)

The breakdown of the last ceasefire agreement on 20 Sept. was followed by a massive uptick in Russian aerial attacks, almost exclusively concentrated on urban areas of Aleppo and including a strike on a UN aid convoy. The strikes preceded a major regime ground offensive that seized significant territory in the northern part of rebel-held eastern Aleppo and featured a prominent role for the Liwa al-Quds pro-regime militia, with which Russian advisers have an intimate relationship. A new assault will likely focus on Aleppo’s southern environs: the easily-obtainable more open territory near the Handarat camp in the north has already been conquered, while the Ramouseh artillery base and hotly-contested 1070 Apartments district form the most likely path for rebels to attempt to break the siege as they did once before. The city’s south also contains a large concentration of Chechen and North Caucasian fighters, which Moscow would prefer to eliminate in Syria rather than see return. Russia largely wrapped up its public fight against the Islamic State with a triumphant and heavily-televised concert in Palmyra in May, demonstrating to its domestic constituency its short, victorious war against the extremist group. A new resurgence of propaganda, however, including alternate history explorations in which an IS unchallenged by Russia develops battlemechs and conquers the Moon, further indicate that Russia is keeping its citizens prepared for continued fighting. The centrepiece of Moscow’s current battle with terrorism is east Aleppo, and the world and the Syrian opposition should brace for an imminent next round of bombardment and carnage.