Computers, automation and artificial intelligence could eliminate or profoundly change one-third of all existing jobs in the Phoenix metro area in coming years, a new study warns.

Lower-skilled positions held by women are especially vulnerable.

Specifically, an estimated 649,000 jobs in metro Phoenix — about 35 percent of all current positions — are at high risk of being eliminated or fundamentally changed in coming decades, according to the report by New America.

Another 537,100 jobs or 29 percent of those in metro Phoenix are at moderate risk of obsolescence or fundamental change.

Conversely, technology will create many new positions, including some that don't exist today, the report said.

"Workers cannot expect to stay in one job or industry for 40 years," wrote author Molly Kinder of New America, a group based in Washington, D.C., that studies technological and social trends.

"Automation and artificial intelligence drive some of these changes and will continue to profoundly change what it takes to earn a good living in the future."

MORE: Arizona's largest employers have more workers than ever before

Which jobs are most at risk?

In general, relatively uneducated workers in lower-paying jobs are at greatest risk. This risk is magnified in metro Phoenix, where educational achievement is lower than for the U.S. overall.

Nationally, 87 percent of workers have at least a high school degree and 30 percent have earned one or more college degrees, according to the report. That compares to 81 percent of Phoenix-area residents with high school degrees and 27 percent with college degrees.

"This is especially true of workers with a high-school degree or less, who comprise 45 percent of the workers at high risk of automation in Phoenix and just 18 percent of workers at low risk," wrote Kinder.

Conversely, half of workers in low-risk occupations have earned one or more college degrees.

The average annual salary of workers in jobs that are at high risk of automation is just under $33,000. Meanwhile, workers in low-risk occupations earn about $67,400 on average.

High-risk occupations are considered those with at least an 85 percent chance of being replaced or fundamentally changed by technology. In metro Phoenix, they disproportionately employ women. These include cashiers, office clerks, secretaries and administrative assistants.

Other high-risk fields include retail salespeople, food-preparation workers/servers, waiters/waitresses, cooks, landscapers, receptionists, telemarketers, bookkeepers, construction laborers, accountants and loan officers.

Rising wages may accelerate automation

Rising minimum wages in Arizona and elsewhere, plus a tight job market, also are accelerating the trend to automation, noted Robert Cresanti, president and CEO of the International Franchise Association.

Arizona's minimum wage, now at $10.50 an hour, has risen twice since the start of 2017.

Fast-food companies, for example, are incorporating self-service kiosks, food-preparation machines and even automated bartending equipment.

"Over the last year or so, there has been more technology brought into (fast-food) kitchens than in the prior 15 years," he said during a stop in Scottsdale this week.

Low-risk occupations are those with less than a 50 percent chance of automation. They include medical assistants, home health aides, supervisors of office and retail workers, elementary- and secondary-school teachers, registered nurses, construction supervisors, general managers, computer-systems analysts, software developers, sales managers and financial managers.

Data used in the study came from Burning Glass Technologies, a labor-analytics company. The report also relied on a 2013 Oxford University study that evaluated the ability of computers to perform the underlying tasks associated with various occupations.

New America hosted a day-long, invitation-only event April 20 in the Valley, in partnership with Arizona State University and with support from the Rockefeller Foundation.

Various leaders considered the impact of technology and automation on work in the Phoenix area with the intent of developing plans to capitalize on opportunities.

Reach the reporter at russ.wiles@arizonarepublic.com or 602-444-8616.

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