L AST YEAR Emmerson Mnangagwa strutted around the World Economic Forum ( WEF ) declaring his country “open for business”. This year Zimbabwe’s president did not even make it to Davos. Instead, on January 21st, having cut short a foreign jaunt that was meant to end at the WEF , he arrived home to a country in chaos.

Since January 12th, when Mr Mnangagwa sparked protests by announcing a 167% rise in the price of petrol, Zimbabwe’s security forces have meted out violence on a scale not seen for a decade. In the days after the price hike soldiers, police and militiamen from Zanu- PF , the ruling party, went house to house across the country beating, shooting or letting slip dogs on residents as young as 11.

Over the past week the violence has become more targeted, but no less brutal. Opposition activists have suffered from a campaign of “systematic torture”, according to the Zimbabwe Human Rights Commission. A doctor from another NGO says that it knows of 12 killings, 78 cases of gunshot wounds and hundreds of assaults, but that these are a “fraction” of the total.

Prisons are bursting. At least 11 opposition MP s have been arrested, as well as the leaders of three of the biggest trade unions. So has Pastor Evan Mawarire, a Christian activist. Hundreds of ordinary folk, including children, are also in jail.

Upon his return Mr Mnangagwa promised an investigation into the violence. “If required, heads will roll,” he wrote on Twitter. Few believe he cares about the truth. An inquiry last year into the killings of six civilians after elections in July was a whitewash. And he has never explained his own role as Robert Mugabe’s intelligence chief in the massacre of thousands of people in the Matabeleland region in the 1980s.

Zimbabweans are familiar with police violence and intimidation. But many are scratching their heads as to why this time it has been so harsh. One theory is that Constantino Chiwenga, Zimbabwe’s vice-president, saw an opportunity to cause chaos while Mr Mnangagwa was out of the country and make it seem that the president was not up to the job. Mr Chiwenga, a former head of the armed forces, is widely thought to want to be president, and was angry that in December Mr Mnangagwa secured the support of Zanu- PF to run again in 2023. He also has financial interests to protect.

A second theory is that, rather than there being a split at the top, Mr Mnangagwa and Mr Chiwenga are engaging in a macabre game of good cop, bad cop. In this version of events the president’s absence is convenient: he can return home, after opponents of his regime have been vanquished, and claim to be cleaning house.

Both theories have their merits. Zanu- PF is fractious and filled with people who thirst after power and loot. If an opportunity arose for Mr Chiwenga to amass more power, logic dictates that he would happily seize it.

But it is also implausible that the president was not party to the decision to send the police and army onto the streets. When he announced the rise in fuel prices he warned protesters that “politically motivated activities will not be tolerated.” Mr Mnangagwa was met off the plane by Mr Chiwenga, his comrade of many decades, whom one of the president’s daughters has described as “a brother to Dad”.

Whatever the truth about the causes of the violence, one thing is certain: ordinary Zimbabweans are suffering. As the economic crisis worsens, the temptation to thump opponents will intensify. On January 23rd soldiers were beating minibus drivers into lowering fares that had risen because of the higher fuel price.

Western governments have condemned the atrocities of the past fortnight. But their influence is limited. South Africa, home to perhaps millions of Zimbabweans, is more important. Yet Cyril Ramaphosa, the president, is tone-deaf. He told reporters in Davos that Zimbabwe has “embarked on democracy and a path of real recovery”. In this he follows his predecessors, who turned a blind eye to abuses in Zimbabwe and hoped things would improve in time. The protests, fuel queues and collapsing economy suggest a new approach is needed.