The close federal election race has prompted widespread predictions of a minority government after the Oct. 19 vote. The only question is: will it be a Conservative, New Democrat or Liberal minority?

I don’t think a Conservative minority is a real possibility, even if the Tories stand first in the seat count. Here’s why:

“Voters elect governments,” said Prime Minister Stephen Harper in last week’s televised leaders’ debate. “They don’t elect coalitions that make up the government later.”

Harper is wrong. Under our parliamentary system, voters elect MPs, and the prime minister of the day must retain the confidence of those MPs to stay in office. After nearly a decade of Harper rule, it is difficult to believe that any of the opposition parties would choose to keep him around. They would almost certainly combine to defeat his government at the first opportunity.

Aha, you say: the opposition parties ganged up on Harper in 2008, and he still managed to survive.

Indeed, three opposition parties — Liberals, NDP, and Bloc Québécois — did form an alliance against Harper in 2008. But they never got a chance to vote him out because Harper persuaded Gov. Gen. Michaëlle Jean to prorogue Parliament.

Harper used the time he had bought himself to portray the opposition parties as undemocratic “losers” who were trying to overturn the election result. He zeroed in on the Bloc’s involvement and suggested the separatists would be running the country.

The strategy worked. By the time Parliament resumed sitting several weeks later, the opposition alliance had fallen apart.

But 2008 is different from the scenario I envisage in 2015, in a couple of important ways.

First of all, the Bloquistes are unlikely to have the balance of power, as they did in 2008 with 49 MPs. They have been reduced to a mere handful of seats in Parliament.

Secondly, the Liberal leadership is not in flux, as it was in 2008, when Michael Ignatieff was positioning himself to replace Stéphane Dion.

What about the Byng-King precedent? Could Harper not just demand another election if he lost a non-confidence vote in Parliament?

Byng-King is an unfortunate part of our political mythology. Facing a vote that he was sure to lose in the minority Parliament of 1926, Prime Minister Mackenzie King asked Gov. Gen. Lord Byng to dissolve Parliament and force an election. Byng refused and instead called on Conservative Leader Arthur Meighen to form a government. When Meighen’s government was itself narrowly defeated in Parliament, an election ensued. King’s Liberals won it by running against Byng.

Many take from this episode the lesson that the Gov. Gen. must follow whatever advice flows from the Prime Minister of the day, no matter how wrong-headed or self-serving. Hence, Jean acceded to Harper’s request for prorogation back in 2008.

But in both 1926 and 2008, the prime minister had not yet been defeated in a vote in Parliament.

Also, Byng was a British lord. That enabled King to portray his refusal as foreign interference in Canadian affairs. Today’s Gov. Gen., David Johnston, is as Canadian as could be. He even plays hockey.

There is another more recent precedent than Byng-King to consider: 1985 in Ontario. The election that year resulted in a minority legislature. While the Conservatives under Frank Miller were still on top, after 42 years of Tory rule in Ontario the opposition Liberals and New Democrats thought it was time for a change. The NDP signed an accord agreeing to support a Liberal government.

Miller reacted much as Harper did in 2008. He called the opposition parties “an unholy alliance” and “hijackers.” But when they combined to defeat his government in the Legislature, Lieutenant-Governor John Black Aird called on Liberal Leader David Peterson to form a government. The same scenario could apply in the days following the Oct. 19 election.

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In summary, there is nothing inevitable about the continuation of a Conservative government even if the split opposition vote in the upcoming election leaves Harper in first place. On the contrary, a minority result likely means the end of Harper and his government.

The one possible stumbling block is the frosty relationship between NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau. But I think their respective parties will force them to get together rather than keep Harper in power.

Ian Urquhart is a former senior editor at the Star.

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