The New Voice publishes updates on the State of the Democratic Primary, covering major news, power rankings, notable shifts, changes, and policies for your information. In addition, we’ve put together for your viewing ease a spreadsheet covering delegate count, popular vote, debate qualifications, national and state polling, and fundraising numbers. This spreadsheet is updated roughly once a week. You can access it here.

The New Voice’s Democratic Primary Power Rankings

1. Joe Biden (+1)

It’s been a good week for Joe Biden. A landslide victory in South Carolina just short of a 30 point margin put him in the front of the field by popular vote, narrowly behind Sanders by delegates. Two moderate candidates, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, both dropped out to avoid splitting the moderate vote, and it appears the Democratic Party has begun to shift its weight behind Biden. He’s received numerous key endorsements over the past four days and the first post-SC poll has a 20 point shift in Biden’s favor in Virginia. While some early ballots have been cast, it appears that the coalescence around Biden may propel him into the lead on Tuesday.

2. Bernie Sanders (-1)

It seems nobody is allowed to be the frontrunner for long anymore; Bernie’s case for the nomination has been dramatically weakened over the course of three days. The once-crowded moderate lane is now just Biden, who is rapidly rising, and Bloomberg, who has faltered quickly after making his first debate performances. Still, Bernie is a massive fundraiser, maintains moderately strong polling, and still stands to compete even if Biden does well on Tuesday.

3. Mike Bloomberg (New Entry)

Bloomberg campaign rally in Johnson City, Tennessee on February 29th

Source: Mike Bloomberg

To be frank, the nomination is more than likely going to Biden or Sanders now. However, Bloomberg, who has invested heavily in Super Tuesday states, polled well in all of them prior to the primary in South Carolina. The doubts about Biden have not gone away due to one remarkable performance, and there may still exist voters who believe Bloomberg to be the most capable candidate, albeit much fewer now.

4. Elizabeth Warren (-1)

Like Bloomberg, Warren doesn’t stand much of a chance to win; there’s a chance she may lose her home state of Massachusetts. Unlike Bloomberg, Warren has also polled lower, underperformed in the first four states (to be fair, Bloomberg hasn’t officially competed yet), and lacks the financial capability of Bloomberg. Warren needs to miraculously outperform all expectations on Tuesday to justify her continuing candidacy.

5. Tulsi Gabbard (New Entry)

At this point, it’s not worth discussing Tulsi’s odds. It is highly unlikely she wins delegates, except from American Samoa or Hawaii, and it is unclear why she is still continuing her campaign. If the convention is contested, she doesn’t have enough goodwill with the party to be awarded the nomination. Still, she rounds out our remaining five major candidates.

Updates from the Campaign Trail

The Party (Joe Biden) vs. Bernie Sanders

The Democratic Party waited until the last moment to put their faith into Joe Biden. If he faltered in South Carolina, they may have chosen to elevate Bloomberg or Buttigieg, in a last-ditch attempt to stall Sanders’ delegate lead. But Biden outperformed nearly every poll, winning with a 30 point margin, and the stars finally aligned for the Biden campaign.

His two chief competitors in the moderate lane, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, dropped out and endorsed him consecutively. Former Virginian Governor/DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe, US Senator (D-Vir) and 2016 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee Tim Kaine have both endorsed Biden, along with Virginian US Representatives Robert Scott, Jennifer Wexton, and Don Beyer. Former Democratic Majority Leader, Harry Reid (D-Nev), endorsed Biden as well, along with fellow candidates Beto O’Rourke (D-Tex), Pete Buttigieg (D-South Bend, Ind), and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), in the days leading up to Super Tuesday. Elected officials from Arizona, California, Texas, Illinois, Colorado, Ohio, and Florida all flocked to his campaign by the eve of Super Tuesday. The Party decides as they say, and the Democrats have gone all-in on Joe Biden.

The game hasn’t changed for the Sanders campaign yet. He didn’t underperform in South Carolina, he handily won Nevada, and effectively tied both New Hampshire and Iowa. While Warren is still vying for the progressive vote on Tuesday, it’s likely much of their shared base will flock to the current frontrunner, to push a progressive platform as far as possible.

Elizabeth Warren speaking at a rally in Virginia

Source: Hillel Steinberg

After Tuesday, there are three possible results. The least likely is that Bloomberg and Warren become narrow delegate leaders and a four-person primary races towards a contested convention. Slightly more likely is that Bloomberg or Warren catch up with Biden and Sanders, and it becomes a three-person race. But based on polling, and the increased binary division of the primary between the progressive and moderate wings of the party, it will likely elevate Sanders and Biden into a head to head competition. This is the defining day of the 2020 Democratic Primary.

Debates

The next debate won’t be until March 15th, in Phoenix, AZ. By then, the effects of Super Tuesday will have settled, and we’ll likely be looking at a 2-3 person debate stage.

February brought us two debate stages: Nevada and South Carolina. While different candidates all had their moments, there was one conclusive result: Mike Bloomberg was much better off before he bought his way into the debates. Quick piling on from Warren followed by the rest of the field quickly stunted the Bloomberg rise and arguably provided Joe Biden with the space to gain his momentum this month.

For full debate coverage by New Voice writer Sasha Rieser, check out their articles here.

On the Horizon

Super Tuesday

Fourteen states and one territory will vote Tuesday, March 3rd, awarding roughly a third of all pledged delegates in the Democratic nomination process. Prior to the exits of Steyer, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar, Sanders was perceived as the clear frontrunner for the total delegate count of these contests. Since their withdrawals (and subsequent notable endorsements for Biden from Buttigieg and Klobuchar), no significant polling has been done outside of the aforementioned Virginia poll, which shows a significant shift towards Biden. This will also be the first time Mike Bloomberg is officially on a ballot, and this is the day he has burned half a billion dollars for. Here’s where things stand as voting begins today.

Prior to Steyer, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar’s withdrawals from the race, Sanders held a plurality in a majority of these competitions, notably maintaining double-digit leads over his nearest competitor in California, Colorado, Maine, and Vermont. Meanwhile, Biden has consistently led Alabama and Tennessee, while nudging with Bloomberg for Arkansas and Oklahoma. North Carolina, Texas, Utah, and Virginia remained close between Sanders and Biden, while Warren and Klobuchar were able to hold onto narrow leads in their respective home states of Massachusetts and Minnesota, while Sanders trailed closely. No polling has been done in American Samoa.

However, those numbers are highly likely to change given the number of major endorsements that have come in for Joe Biden, as the Virginia poll shows. Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, and Virginia are more than likely to be won by Biden. He also wins new edges in Minnesota and Texas, with the blessings of Klobuchar and O’Rourke behind him, but those races may still be a close call between him and Sanders. Meanwhile, Sanders is still the favorite to win California, Colorado, Maine, and Vermont. The trend towards this two-person race will hurt Bloomberg and Warren, with the former most likely underperforming all polling, and the latter who stands to lose Massachusetts to Sanders now more than ever.

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