Even though we all hate the rule which limits Olympic teams to five members (soon to be four in 2020), there is one good thing that comes out of it: It gives us all the opportunity to work the jigsaw puzzle of who is going to be on that team—who will go and who will be left home—who will be a star for life and who will have trained their entire life for that one shot at Olympic glory only to be relegated to the inglorious position of “1st alternate” or “2nd alternate.” And come on, if we were all honest with ourselves, we would have to admit that half the fun of this Olympic year is the suspense in wondering who the five girls are going to be on Team USA. We all love suspense and mystery. There is probably going to be very little suspense in the Olympic team final itself. Most likely the USA will easily walk away with the gold. But which five girls are going to make that happen? Now that’s the big question we’re all dying to know the answer to.

So what is the point of this post? Do I have it all figured out? Certainly not. All we have to do is get on youtube and read the comments, and we’ll see that everybody under the sun has an opinion about this forthcoming team. True enough. But let’s be a little more thorough today, shall we? Let’s try our best to lay aside “who I like” and be objective instead. Let’s examine each girl’s potential to make the team, doing our best to get inside the head of Martha Karolyi, because she is essentially the sole determiner of the Rio team.

**Note: I think the question of “Who is the second best all-arounder?” is insignificant to Martha at this point. Gabby, Lauren, Maggie, or even Aly could all easily contend for the all-around silver medal. Martha knows she will have plenty of girls to do all-around, so I don’t think a couple of tenths different in the all-around scores will influence this decision greatly.

Today we will limit ourselves to the following ten candidates:

Simone Biles

Gabby Douglas

Brenna Dowell

Lauren Hernandez

Madison Kocian

Ashton Locklear

Maggie Nichols

Aly Raisman

Mykayla Skinner

Ragan Smith

Certainly others are possible, such as Alyssa Baumann (nice beamer), Norah Flatley (even better, IMO), Bailie Key (is she still alive?), Rachel Gowey (always sad when I think about her luck), Dominique Dawes (if anyone could make a comeback in the next three months, it would be her), etc.; however, these girls have not been seen in international competition this year, we know little if anything of their training, and it seems like they would have a very outside shot at best. Let’s start with the most obvious one….

Simone Biles: How likely is it that the sun will rise in the west tomorrow morning instead of the east? How likely is it that Romania will post the top four qualifying scores on uneven bars at next year’s world championships? This is how likely it will be for Simone to be left off the team. There has never been a greater certainty in the history of gymnastics than Simone making the US team (barring injury, of course). SIMONE: IN

Let’s go ahead and dismiss two ladies from the discussion, despite their talents. Both Brenna Dowell and Mykayla Skinner will not be on the team. Mykayla would never be used on bars or beam (Team USA’s weaker events), and her floor would score poorly against the likes of Simone, Aly, and even Maggie (the current world bronze medalist). The only event where she could offer help and potentially medal is vault. However, her Amanar is nothing spectacular, and if Gabby upgrades as we suppose she will, there will already be four Amanars available for Martha to select from. With the upgraded second vault of Simone, the great improvements of Paseka, and the perennial showing of North Korea’s Hong Un Jong, her chances of a vault medal are also quite minimal. Mykayla offers nothing substantial in the team competition and probably couldn’t bring home an individual medal either. MYKAYLA: OUT

Brenna is not usable on beam. Her vault and floor are “fine,” but nothing Martha would want to use in the team final. That leaves her bars set. Based on potential alone, we have to give Brenna props, but her lack of consistency makes her a risk. After last year’s disastrous qualifying round, it seems that Aly Raisman might be a better pick for bars than Brenna (did I just say that?). This year, her coaches seem to have constructed a safer routine for her; however with bars being her only event of value to the team, Martha would be more likely go with the highly consistent Locklear or the reigning co-world champion Kocian. BRENNA: OUT

After Simone, I think the next most likely team member will be Aly Raisman. I say this not because it is who I would choose, but because I think it is who Martha will choose. We all know her bars are not good. We know her vault has been spotty at best. We know her beam is mediocre, especially with her form and the way the judges have been nit-picking connections. Would Martha take her just for floor (and possibly beam)? I would say “yes.” Martha likes Aly and her work ethic as well as the experience and leadership she brings to the team. That much is common knowledge. However, if that’s all it took to get someone on the team, we should bring back Alicia Sacramone. The reason I believe that Aly will be on the team is that, after Simone, she is the most “sure thing” for a medal that Team USA has—silver on floor exercise. Sure, things can happen. Just look at last year’s world championships. But that was really a fluke. Since that time, no one except Simone can come near to Aly’s floor scores. A medal on floor, a huge boost for the team competition on floor, and the potential to fill in on vault and beam, if necessary—it’s going to be enough for Martha, I think. ALY: IN

We now move on to Gabby Douglas. The way I see it, Gabby has one primary advantage over every other potential candidate. It’s not that she’s currently the second best all-arounder. It’s also not that she is the defending Olympic champion, her experience, her mental toughness, etc., etc., etc. The primary advantage Gabby has over everyone else is that she is the only great bars worker who is versatile and usable on about every event. Typically, if you work bars well, you lack ability on some other apparatus (or two or three). Martha knows that Gabby can fill one of those crucial three bars spots and won’t be dead weight on the other events. I really believe that Gabby is the Kyla Ross of 2014—the perfect table setter—solid everywhere and capable of all-around success, but unlikely to pull in event finals medals. GABBY: IN

Now things start to get a bit trickier. Five girls remain with only two spots left. One thing seems obvious: It is highly unlikely that Martha will take two bars specialists, especially with Gabby already in the mix. That would put the USA in a less than enviable position during qualifying, especially on vault and floor. So while she might take Madison Kocian or Ashton Locklear, she would not take both. So who is the better candidate? Personally, I prefer Locklear. Her bars are beautiful to watch, and she never seems to miss her connections (which can’t always be said of Kocian). However, I think that Kocian has the advantage right now. At a recent meet, her beam set looked much improved. It was high in difficulty and reasonably well-executed. Therefore, in addition to a potential bars medal, she could be used in team final for beam. The same cannot be said for Locklear. Also, Madison’s floor and vault would be preferable to Ashton’s during the qualifying round. Will Kocian make the cut? We’ll discuss that later, but for now….. ASHTON: OUT

Simone, Aly, and Gabby are in. Brenna, Mykayla, and Ashton are out. Stay tuned for Part II where we discuss the pros and cons of Maggie, Lauren, Madison, and Ragan. And be sure to offer your opinions below. (Remember: Strong disagreements are always welcome, as is kindness in the way your present them!)

Article by: Robbie Cruz

Photo credit: Nadia Boyce

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