You may be thinking of a little cross border shopping this Thanksgiving weekend, but if you believe one economist, it may be better to wait a few months.

Patricia Croft, who retired last week as RBC’s chief economist, expects the dollar to rise to $1.15 U.S. over the next year. She admits it may not be sustained at that level, but she’s convinced we’re going to get there.

No one knows for sure if Croft’s projection will be right — TD Bank’s economists think the dollar will just hit par next year while other banks fall somewhere between TD and RBC.

Where the dollar goes depends on a number of factors, from the health of the U.S. economy, to the strength of commodity prices and the nervousness around global finances. Croft says people are looking for security and Canada’s still one of the strongest G7 nations post-recession.

“The world is recognizing Canada for its positive fundamentals and that’s reflected in the exchange rate,” she says.

Here are a few things to consider as the dollar rises.

1. U.S. Vacation property

Croft says this is one area where Canadians will get an especially good discount. “The U.S. housing market is not recovering anytime soon,” she says. Florida, Arizona and the other sun spots have plenty of cheap housing. In September the median price of a home dropped 9 per cent from a year earlier, on top of declines in each of the past three years.

Factor in a $1.15 loonie and prices are even more attractive. For example, a $300,000 Florida ocean-front condo would cost about $310,000 Canadian today. If the dollar hit $1.15, the price would drop to $261,000. As always, though it’s buyer beware. Here are 10 things to consider when buying a vacation property.

2. U.S. stocks

U.S. stocks could also be a bargain. Blue chip issues and multinational players are already beaten down by recession but become even more attractive at a discount for patient investors .

“People may certainly look at U.S. stocks at a discount,” says Croft.

3. Groceries, books, magazines and travel

Fruit, vegetables and other produce from California and Florida should also be cheaper. Magazine should at least be in line with the U.S. sticker price and Canadian travel agents should be selling discounted vacation packages. Once you get there, the shopping deals are a bonus.

4. Will the savings be passed on?

Bruce Cran, president of the Consumers’ Association of Canada, says we may not see a huge difference when we shop at home.

“Retailers have not been in the habit [of passing on] price changes,” he says. “The dollar has been up and down a few times and they think they’re entitled to whatever falls their way.” He says price differences can be as much as 30%.

The Retail Council of Canada’s Mark Beazley won’t be surprised to see more Canadians shop in the U.S. if the dollar hits $1.15. He says the price gap has narrowed between the two countries, there’s still a lot of pressure on Canadian retailers to compete with American stores.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t sound like Canadian prices will be on par with U.S. goods — or drop further if the dollar stays high for a long period of time.

“U.S. retailers are dropping prices considerably to drive demand,” he says. “Canada is in a different situation. The U.S. retailers get a volume discount, there are high import taxes in Canada and there are higher salaries here.”

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If prices don’t fall, expect long lineups at the border. When the dollar hit $1.10 in November 2007 “Canadians immediately went to the U.S. in droves,” says Cran. “That will happen again. The price comparison is not lost on consumers.”

Croft, who’s now got a lot of time on her hands, admits she’s ready to hop the border when the dollar reaches her target. “Lots of people will head south for vacations,” she said.

Bryan Borzykowski is a freelance writer who is a Moneyville news blogger.