What will happen next to Cameron? There are three likely scenarios:

Remain wins decisively. The PM is victorious and safe; he can retire when he likes. He will likely announce a fresh legislative agenda, shuffle the Cabinet a little and get on with the job. Remain wins very narrowly. The grumbling on the Right starts: “Remain bullied us, the weather was bad on polling day, the whole thing should’ve been suspended after the murder of Jo Cox.” It’s a coin toss as to whether or not there’s a revolt within the backbenches. Many are not in the mood for further conflict following the tragedy of last week; they recognise the febrile state of the voters. Others, however, are furious. Who would be their stalking horse candidate? Leave wins. The PM is a dead duck. He must resign. But he may want to resign in such a way that doesn’t spook an overspooked market – so he may offer his services during the period of renegotiation. One thing is certain in this scenario: anyone who staked their reputation on Remain won’t be PM after him. Osborne is finished. Theresa May, however, has played it smart during this campaign and been fairly quiet. No one dislikes her right now.

If the first scenario comes to pass, many will forgive Cameron his mistakes and regard him as a wise helmsman. But scenarios two and three, which are more likely, highlight the paradox of Cameroonism. Yes, he’s very good at easing our way through difficulties. But the difficulties are so often of his own making. We are having this referendum because he deemed it necessary to save his leadership. He led the Remain campaign because he wanted to.