Donald Trump faces a Presidency-defining test in tomorrow's Obamacare vote. Will the conservative elements of the party trust him with their political futures and unite the Republican party or will they instead stick with the deep-pocketed conservative advocacy groups that fund their campaigns? The answer to that question will have far-reaching implications that could ultimately determine the fate of Trump's entire Presidency. Failure in the House could result in Trump launching an all out Republican civil war which will obviously result in minimal accomplishments over the next four years while success could help to unite a fractured party.

As we pointed out yesterday, Trump recently offered up a stern warning to Conservatives who choose to oppose his healthcare plan. In typical fashion, Trump was quite direct, telling Republicans they could "lose their seats" and the House majority, in 2018 if they fail to repeal and replace ObamaCare. Per Reuters:

“He warned us that there are consequences if we don’t come together for us as a party and also for individuals,” Representative Richard Hudson of North Carolina said after the meeting. “He wasn’t threatening in any way. He was just giving us a pretty clear warning.” Trump also told Representative Mark Meadows of North Carolina, an outspoken critic of the bill, that he was "coming after" him, according to people in the meeting. Meadows later said the president was joking.

But, despite the hard sell, according to NBC, the following 27 House Republicans, as of this morning, are still leaning toward a 'no' vote tomorrow:

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH)

Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC)

Rep. Justin Amash (R-MI)

Rep. Dave Brat (R-VA)

Rep. Raul Labrador (R-ID)

Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL)

Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA)

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY)

Rep. Tom Garrett (R-VA)

Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtin (R-FL)

Rep. Leonard Lance (R-NJ)

Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV)

Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-OK)

Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX)

Rep. Mark Sanford (R-SC)

Rep. John Katko (R-NY)

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA)

Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC)

Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC)

Rep. Rick Crawford (R-AR)

Rep. Lou Barletta (R-PA)

Rep. Ted Yoho (R-FL)

Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-TN)

Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH)

Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ)

Rep. Rod Blum (R-IA)

Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD)

Ironically, several of the Conservatives who currently oppose Trump's healthcare plan counted themselves among his most ardent supporters during the 2016 Presidential campaign as many mainstream Republicans refused to back his candidacy.

But, a yes vote from those Conservatives could cost them the support of very powerful funding sources, including the Koch network which spent over $250 million in last year's election alone, and would almost certainly result in primary challenges in 2018.

The Koch network spent an estimated $250 million on last year’s election. The Koch-run Americans for Prosperity, which has chapters in more than 30 states and boasts that it can deploy 3.2 million citizen activists, spent almost $14 million on the 2016 elections, according to federal records. Freedom Partners, another Koch entity which largely targeted Democrats with attack ads, spent $30 million. Tim Phillips, president of Americans for Prosperity, would not say directly that Republicans who support the bill will face consequences next year, but noted, “Members of Congress know how serious we take a vote like this.” James Davis, a spokesman for Freedom Partners, said “network organizations will stand with principled lawmakers who will oppose the House healthcare proposal.” Davis said the Koch network would spend between $300 million and $400 million ahead of the 2018 elections.

“For me, this healthcare bill is an absolute no-brainer,” said Representative Devin Nunes of California, a close Trump ally. “Any conservative group who opposes it, I don’t even understand how they can categorize themselves as being a conservative group.”

Meanwhile, even if it passes the House, the bill faces a difficult path in the Senate, where several conservatives have declared their opposition. Veteran House members recall in 2009, when then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi forced a vote on a bill that would cap carbon emissions. The bill did not pass the Senate, and many Democrats from coal states lost their seats in the 2010 elections for their votes.