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“Looking ahead, proposed changes in EU immigration and asylum policies, including forced distribution of refugees across the EU as well as higher refusal and removal rates, might make Canada a preferred destination over the EU for irregular movements,” it said.

“Further, the rise of nationalist and anti-immigration parties across Europe will likely make it much more difficult for people to immigrate or seek asylum in the EU.”

People who fear for their life are going to claim asylum in a place where they think it’s possible to get asylum.

University of Ottawa professor David Moffette, an expert on Canadian and European immigration policies, said it was possible some refugees would opt for Canada as a result of hardening policies in Europe.

“People who fear for their life are going to claim asylum in a place where they think it’s possible to get asylum,” he said. But he said those capable of choosing between Europe and Canada would be the exception.

Europe remains the top destination because it is more easily accessible, Moffette said. By contrast, Canada received only a fraction of the numbers fleeing conflicts in their homelands and could take many more, he added.

The report also suggests officials failed to anticipate the jump in refugee claims now underway in Canada, predicting an increase of only six per cent between 2015 and 2016. The number of claims referred to the Immigration and Refugee Board actually jumped 39 per cent during that period.

Between 2014 and 2016, refugee claims referred to the IRB increased 69 per cent, from 14,000 to 23,600. Nigeria, China, Pakistan, Iraq and Syria were the top source countries of Canada’s refugee claimants, the IRB said.

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly is to travel to Ottawa on Friday to meet his Canadian counterparts. Among the issues to be discussed are “perimeter security and traveller screening” as well as immigration and refugee policies, his department said.

• Email: sbell@postmedia.com | Twitter: StewartBellNP