Close on the heels of the extremely severe cyclone ‘Chapala’ that crossed the Yemen coast, the Arabian Sea has on Friday rustled up a follow-up cyclone named ‘Megh.’

An India Met Department update said that ‘Megh’ was located 840 km East-Northeast of Socotra Island off Yemen, 1,370 km West-Southwest of Mumbai, and 910 km East-Southeast of Salalah, Oman.

No threat here



‘Megh’ does not pose any threat to Indian coast and is currently travelling almost along the same line as ‘Chapala’ did earlier this week.

According to the Met, it will change course to West-Southwest and intensify into a severe cyclone and approach the Gulf of Eden and the Horn of Africa, weakening a round before making landfall.

Evolution of ‘Megh’ in quick succession after ‘Chapala’ is indicative of the considerable traction that the North-East monsoon has achieved over the Arabian Sea, the South Indian Peninsula, Sri Lanka and the Bay of Bengal.

According to most weather models, the Bay is readying to catch up with the action by setting up a storm of its own during the next few days.

The IMD expects a resident cyclonic circulation over South-West (off Sri Lanka) to make the grade as a low-pressure area as early as by Saturday.

Buzz in Bay



Over the next two days that follow, the ‘low’ will make its presence felt by rapidly intensifying into a depression/deep depression, or even beyond, before hitting the Tamil Nadu coast by Monday.

Some models suspect that Tamil Nadu might be bracing for a tryst with a full-scale cyclone, a view shared by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the US Climate Prediction Centre.

The US Centre is ‘moderately confident’ of tropical cyclone development across the Arabian Sea (‘Megh’ is already in the reckoning) and the Bay of Bengal.

Heavy rain outlook



What gives it the confidence is the enhanced convection (cloud formation) here and above average sea surface temperatures. The Global Forecast System ensemble run by the Centre also supports this view.

India Met Department weather outlook for the next few days is as follows:

Friday: Heavy rain at isolated places over Kerala. Saturday: Heavy rain at isolated places over Tamil Nadu. Sunday: Heavy rain at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Wintry conditions



Over North-West India, wintry conditions are settling down with the arrival of cool and wet western disturbances from across the international border.

During the 24 hours ending Friday morning, rain or snow were reported from most places in Jammu and Kashmir, and isolated places in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. Rain or thundershowers lashed the plains over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh.