by Jean-Louis Gassée

Apple-designed ARM architecture processors or traditional Intel x86 processors? And When? As usual, Apple keeps the answer to itself while questions keep caroming around the Web. But, after last week’s iPad Pro announcement, Apple appears to have tipped its hand.

Replacing the Intel x86 processors powering our Macs since 2006 always touches a nerve. The excitement started in September 2013 when Apple introduced its first 64-bit processor, the A7 chip — almost seven years ago!

I noted the event in a contemporaneous Monday Note titled 64 bits. It’s Nothing. You Don’t Need It. And We’ll Have It In 6 Months — it’s still a fun read, if you’ll permit me to say. In it, I quickly jump over sour naysayers, quote strong benchmark numbers comparing the new A7 SoC with Intel and AMD chips, and finally land on the unavoidable Mac CPU replacement speculation [as always, edits and emphasis mine]:

“So, yes, in theory, a future Apple 64-bit processor could be fast enough to power a Mac.”

… which immediately raises a product line transition question:

“Can we see a split in the Mac product line? The lower, more mobile end would use Apple’s processors, and the high-end, the no-holds-barred, always plugged to the wall desktop devices would still use x86 chips. With two code bases to maintain and OS X applications to port? Probably not.”

… and more iPad-cannibalizes-the-Mac conjecture:

“Apple could continue to cannibalize its (and others’) PC business by producing “desktop-class” tablets. Such speculation throws us back to a well-known problem: How do you compose a complex document without a windowing system and a mouse or trackpad pointer?”

These questions have been with us ever since, prompting me to write about half a dozen related Monday Notes in the meantime.

In 2019, I took a closer look at the pros and cons of ARM-ing the Mac.

In Apple: Macintosh Forks, I took the pro side, postulating that while the transition was inevitable, it would “fork” the Mac line; that is, divide it into two prongs: Low-end Macs would be powered by Axx chips similar to those used in iPhones and iPads, while the higher end would keep using more powerful x86 chips.

On the con side, in Apple: No Macintosh Forks. But The iPad… I argued that the Mac should stay with a united line using Intel CPUs, but that iOS would fork into two versions: One for iPhones, the other for iPads offering multitasking features better suited to the larger tablet screens.

That, I thought, settled the question. The Mac would retain the simple domesticity of its x86 partnership, while iOS was bound for a more adventurous life.

But, no. Following another broadly-echoed rumor from notorious and prolific analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, I yielded to the titillation and reexamined my No ARM-ed Mac position.

A March 8th note titled ARM-ed Mac: Not Again Or For Real This Time? came to a non-conclusion conclusion:

“ARM-ing the Mac is easier said than done, regardless of its intuitive desirability.”

And, as I wrote in a follow-up March15th article, the biggest challenge lies elsewhere:

“While the move [to ARM-based CPUs] is intuitively desirable, there are complications under the attractive surface — and a big hole: A Mere Matter of Software. The Mac is no longer the apple of the Apple developer’s eye.”

Comparing installed bases, 100 million for the Mac vs. 900 million for iOS, one sees where developers want to invest their energy and funds. Notwithstanding Catalyst, the iOS to macOS app conversion utility — whose success isn’t yet in evidence — getting Apple developers to invest in the port of their x86 apps to the ARM-ed macOS would be a serious challenge, one that would put the brakes on the new Mac hardware take-off.

Enough dithering. We now have an answer.

Last Wednesday Apple introduced the new iPad Pro that features a Magic Keyboard with trackpad, an ingenious polymorphic cursor, dual cameras, a LiDAR projector-camera (more on that in the postscript), and more, all resting on an iPadOS 13.4 update to support the new hardware.

The new iPad Pro, which comes in two sizes: 11- and 12.9 inch, is a significant step forward for “lean in” applications, productivity programs that let you get things done. Craig Federighi , Apple’s Sr. VP of Software Engineering, demonstrates the advantages of the new trackpad and the long prayed-for “real” cursor in an accompanying video, Introducing the trackpad for iPadOS. In addition to being an esteemed software engineering executive, Federighi, affectionately known as Hair Force One, is a non-pareil demomeister. He makes a convincing case for the novel cursor and multi-finger trackpad gestures that make iPadOS multitasking more approachable.

Of course, the usual grain of demo salt is advised. We’ll know more after we’ve logged enough hours on the new iPad with its Magic Keyboard and trackpad to form the lasting Third Impression, the one that fuels the all-powerful Word of Mouth. Regrettably, the full kit isn’t available until May.

Caveats aside, Apple appears to be all-in on the iPad line. Not only are they beefing up the device’s productivity abilities (at least for top-of-the-line models), the positioning has shifted. In addition to Federighi’s informative video, Apple published a cheeky but relevant commercial titled How To Correctly Use A Computer. The gently mocking tone takes aim at the limitations of traditional laptops, and, more important, proudly announces that the iPad is, indeed, a computer.

An answer to the now age-old ARM-ed Mac question now emerges: With the emphasis on the iPad Pro as a real computer, there’s no reason for Apple to move the Mac off of trusty if perhaps less glamorous Intel processors. Does this mean that iPad Pro sales will cannibalize the Mac? We’ve long known the answer that one. It doesn’t really matter to the company as long as customers enjoy their Apple devices.

As always with Apple, not all questions have been answered. Xcode, the software development environment Apple developers use to write iOS and macOS apps, only runs on Macs today. When will it appear on an iPad Pro? And Apple still hasn’t opened up about the mysterious Ultra Wideband U1 chip in the latest iPhones and now the new iPad Pro. It’s used for AirDrop, sure, but is that all?

Perhaps we’ll get answers during the upcoming June WWDC (Worldwide Developers Conference).

— JLG@mondaynote.com

Postscript: What’s “LiDAR”? It’s a scanner/camera that so accurately measures the distance, shape, and position of the objects in its view that it can transform a living room into a sea of hot lava, or let you select and arrange the virtual furniture in your office. See this short but tantalizing article from The Verge that explains how the iPad Pro’s LiDAR can be used in augmented reality applications.