After nearly a week without polls the sentiment on Betfair is moving back to REMAIN

REMAIN is edging back up on the Betfair exchange. Now a 71% – was 68% 2 days ago pic.twitter.com/bFB9eM39JC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2016

Could all this change when we get some new numbers?

From a straightforward trading perspective there is a good reason to back IN at the moment. The third week of the month is when we get the phone polls which have been showing very solid IN leads. For whatever reason they all seem to come together and I’m expecting three or perhaps four this coming week.

So if the phone surveys follow their usual pattern there’s a strong chance that sentiment will move a touch more to IN which for those like me who trade that is worth a punt.

Nothing, not even Mr. Johnson and Hitler, have prompted shifts to OUT since before the weekend.

What will really move the market in the other direction is if one or more of the phone polls has the fight getting closer to what the online surveys have been showing.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB



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