49ers must juggle personnel to keep window open to contend

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After falling agonizingly short of winning the AFC Championship Game in January 1996, Jim Harbaugh's pain was lessened by thoughts of a seemingly successful future.

The Colts' quarterback, then 32, found some solace in the belief he'd have more chances to win a Super Bowl. However, Harbaugh never won a playoff game the next two seasons with Indianapolis, or in his final three years with Baltimore and San Diego.

"I really felt there would be other days," Harbaugh said this month. "And as it turned out, there were no other days. That was the only day."

Harbaugh offered that memory two days before last week's NFC Championship Game, a 23-17 loss to Seattle that marked the third straight year that the 49ers' season ended excruciatingly.

In 2011, Kyle Williams fumbled away a chance at a Super Bowl berth in overtime. In 2012, the 49ers came up 5 yards short of a Super Bowl title. This season, they fell 18 yards shy of a return trip.

Now, entering the offseason, it's reasonable to ask: Will there be other days for the 49ers?

Last week, Harbaugh, who knows firsthand how windows of opportunity can slam shut, feigned ignorance when asked if his team's title-hunting days could be over.

"I don't understand windows," Harbaugh said. "It's confusing in terms of football. So back today competing."

Harbaugh's message, as always, was that he is focused on getting a bit better each day. It's the mantra he has preached since he arrived in 2011. "It's so simple it just might work," he's often said. It's worked well enough to produce a 36-11-1 record and two NFC West titles.

Looking ahead, it's hard to envision the 49ers, whose 12-4 record this season was topped by only two teams, suddenly plunging from the league's elite.

Of their 22 offensive and defensive starters in the NFC title game, 17 are under contract for the 2014 season, including each of their eight Pro Bowl selections. That total doesn't include injured starting fullback Bruce Miller, or cornerback Carlos Rogers, who started all 16 regular-season games before a hamstring injury limited him to a backup role in Seattle.

"We have to keep these guys together," tight end Vernon Davis said. "You run into problems when guys leave, can't afford guys. But if we can keep the majority of guys together, we'll have a good shot of making it again."

With a lucrative contract extension possibly looming for quarterback Colin Kaepernick, keeping all their core players probably isn't realistic. In fact, Rogers, 32, and running back Frank Gore, 30, are logical candidates to take pay cuts, or be released if they balk. Rogers and Gore will combine to count about $14.5 million against the 2014 salary cap, according to Overthecap.com.

In 2013, the 49ers had the luxury of paying Kaepernick a relative pittance - he earned a base salary of $740,844 - and that allowed them to beef up the roster.

In March, they traded a sixth-round pick for wide receiver Anquan Boldin, whose $6 million salary was too rich for the salary-cap-strapped Ravens. Baltimore, of course, had just signed its quarterback, Joe Flacco, to a six-year, $120.6 million extension.

Now Kaepernick's potential payday could prohibit the 49ers from signing Boldin, who is an unrestricted free agent after he had the most receiving yards (1,179) by a 49ers wide receiver since 2002. In addition, safety Donte Whitner, cornerback Tarell Brown, center Jonathan Goodwin and placekicker Phil Dawson are free agents.

"In this day and age, with the salary cap, it's tough to keep teams together," Goodwin said. "You have your window of opportunity with certain groups of players. Hopefully, there are ways to work around that and keep guys here. Until we hear anything, you really don't know. But we have a special group of guys here, and it would be nice to give it another shot."

There will no doubt be some notable losses, but the 49ers will be able to replenish their roster with at least 11 draft picks, including five in the first three rounds.

They also could receive contributions from two intriguing players who had "redshirt" rookie seasons in 2013. Both defensive end Tank Carradine and running back Marcus Lattimore were viewed as first-round talents, but they slipped to the second and fourth rounds, respectively, because of knee injuries that prematurely ended their college careers.

They didn't play a snap this past season, but they could eventually replace two stars who have been instrumental to the 49ers' success since 2011. Gore is the oldest offensive starter under contract, and Justin Smith, 34, is the oldest defensive starter under contract.

In the salary cap era, the ability to replenish the roster with lower-priced young talent is the key to success. Last year, for example, the 49ers parted ways with All-Pro safety Dashon Goldson, who was capably replaced by first-round pick Eric Reid.

This offseason, with a bushel of draft picks and an already loaded roster, the 49ers appear poised to make another Super Bowl run.

As Harbaugh knows, however, there are no guarantees.