Water in the Great Lakes is hovering near historic highs and Toronto Islands residents have begun preparing for a third year of flooding.

“Some people are afraid — their worry is that this maybe is just the new normal,” said Tony Farebrother, chair of the Toronto Island Community Association, adding that residents began sandbagging on Monday in anticipation of spring flooding.

Increasingly, the blame is being placed on climate change.

“This isn’t related to the spring thaw. This is related to global water levels increasing,” said Coun. Joe Cressy (Ward 10, Spadina-Fort York), whose ward includes the Toronto islands and the city’s waterfront community.

“The reality is, climate change is here.”

The islands and parts of Toronto were flooded in 2017 and again in 2019, when water levels in Lake Ontario reached record highs due to wet weather.

The chances of a flood this year stand at roughly 30 per cent, down from 50 per cent earlier in the month, according to Rob Caldwell, Canadian Secretary of the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board. The agency monitors and adjust Lake Ontario water levels, subject to an agreement between Canada and the U.S.

The risk of flooding has dropped considerably as a result of recent dry weather in the Great Lakes basin.

“However, that said, the upper Great Lakes are still pumping record amounts of water into Lake Ontario through the Niagara River as we speak — that is the bad news,” said Caldwell, blaming record precipitation over the lakes in the past 38 months.

Lake Ontario is about 10 centimetres higher than levels recorded at the same time last year and 48 cm above normal for this time of the year. It typically peaks in early June.

“Many of the juries are still out on whether this is an outlier, but more and more it seems to be pointing towards the effect of our changing climate,” Caldwell added.

Toronto islanders aren’t taking any chances. They’ve set up a flood preparation committee that began meeting in January to raise money and fortify against further flooding. A separate group is looking into why Lake Ontario levels are so high and what, if anything, can be done in response, including a more robust approach to lowering lake levels to better prevent flooding in Toronto.

That is a delicate negotiation however, as lowering the water level of Lake Ontario can create problems in the St. Lawrence Seaway. The levels are monitored and lowered as necessary, at a dam near Cornwall, Ont., subject to an agreement between Canada and the U.S.

“After two major floods in three years, everyone on the island is watching the lake levels,” Farebrother said.

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About 675 people live on Ward’s Island and Algonquin Island, two of the many small islands that make up the hook-shaped archipelago in Lake Ontario, south of downtown Toronto often referred to, confusingly, as Toronto Island, singular.

On Monday, members of the Algonquin Island Association began installing large and small sandbags along the seawall protecting them from Lake Ontario, Farebrother said. The association is putting $6,000 of its own money toward the $20,000 that islanders hope to raise to improve flood prevention measures.

Cressy said the city and the federal government have invested $29.6 million toward flood mitigation measures, through the Disaster Mitigation and Adaptation Fund. Three projects have been completed as part of the work and four more are expected to be completed this year.

The city announced Tuesday it is working with the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA) to accelerate flood mitigation work at Toronto Island Park and along Toronto’s waterfront, including construction of a beach curb on Ward’s Island and reinforcement of the existing seawall at Algonquin Island, pending the outcome of engineering investigations.

Construction of a natural barrier at the Eastern Beaches, along the east side of the city’s shoreline, is also planned.

Farebrother said islanders are particularly concerned about keeping Cibola Avenue open. Running the length of the islands, from Ward’s Island in the east to Hanlan’s Point in the west, it is an emergency access road and was closed for a time last year. Cressy said the flood mitigation work includes a geotechnical assessment of raising 200 metres of Cibola Avenue that runs through Toronto Island Park, and 300 metres of Lakeshore Avenue, part of which was underwater in 2019.

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Islanders are also trying to ensure there is an evacuation plan in the event houses are flooded and electrical systems fail.

“There are a lot of elderly and seniors who live on the islands,” Farebrother said.

A spokesperson for the Centreville Amusement Park said they are planning on providing uninterrupted service this year as the property is slightly elevated and inland and doesn’t take the brunt of flooding.

Not everyone is convinced the islands flooding is a result of climate change, including islander Lynn Robinson.

“People attribute this to climate change, but they also attributed very low lake levels to climate change in 1999-2013,” said Robinson, who has lived on Ward’s for 50 years.

“That was a serious problem and everyone gravely decided that was due to climate change. I think it’s tempting to want to say that, but I stay away from it. I think we’re in a don’t-know stage.”

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