Row over document intensifies after further leak reveals issue of police resources had been raised

This article is more than 2 years old

This article is more than 2 years old

Tackling serious violence is not a law enforcement issue alone, according to a key government strategy published amid a row over the impact of police numbers on a surge in violent crime in Britain.

The impact of police levels is conspicuous by its absence from the government’s much-hyped serious violence strategy, which was published by the Home Office on Monday after the Guardian revealed department research had concluded that the fall in the number of police was likely to have contributed to an increase in knife and gun crime.

The leak threatened to overshadow the broader findings of the strategy, such as the impact of drug markets, social and economic disadvantages and social media, at a time when deaths on British streets, particularly in London, have surged. There have been more than 50 suspected murders in the capital this year.

Amber Rudd, the home secretary, said she had not seen the leaked research papers but a further release to the Guardian late on Monday revealed the issue of police resourceswas clearly raised in the executive summary of the document, suggesting that the authors considered it among the most important conclusions.

It reads: “Serious violence within a drugs context is likely to be facilitated by four other factors: i) a shift in police resources meaning less proactive policing … and falls in arrests/charges relating to serious violence and drug trafficking offences.” The summary also lists social media and increases in homelessness as contributory factors.

The final 115-page document contains little about effect of increasing or decreasing police numbers, despite the research seen by the Guardian being clear on its findings and marked “official – sensitive”. The report was commissioned by Rudd.

Home Office statistics show the number of police officers fell from 143,734 in March 2010 to 123,142 in March 2017.

Rudd said earlier it would be a mistake to focus on the falling numbers.

A graph on police-recorded robberies in the leaked research paper features on page 25 of the final document.

The strategy appears to fall in line with the home secretary’s position, who in her foreword to the document says: “I am clear we cannot arrest our way out of this issue.”

In document continues: “Our overarching message is that tackling serious violence is not a law enforcement issue alone. It requires a multiple-strand approach involving a range of partners across different sectors.”

The strategy will be backed by £40m of Home Office funding and a new offensive weapons bill to ban the sale of corrosive liquids to the under-18s and introduce tougher restrictions for buying knives online. It focuses heavily on the links between illegal drug markets, particularly for crack cocaine, and violent crime.

Between 2014-15 and 2016-17, homicides where either the victim or suspect was known to be involved in using or dealing illicit drugs increased from 50% to 57%, the report reads.

“Evidence suggests crack use is rising in England and Wales due to a mix of supply and demand factors,” it says.

While a rise in violent crime can partly be attributed to improved recording, other data suggests there has been a genuine rise.

Hospital figures show admissions owing to assault by sharp objects increased by 18% since 2014-15.

In preparation for the launch of the strategy, officials prepared a document in February on the factors behind the rise in violent crime.

Leaked to the Guardian, a section on police resources says: “Since 2012-13, weighted crime demand on the police has risen, largely due to growth in recorded sex offences. At the same time officers’ numbers have fallen by 5% since 2014.

“So resources dedicated to serious violence have come under pressure and charge rates have dropped. This may have encouraged offenders. [It is] unlikely to be the factor that triggered the shift in serious violence, but may be an underlying driver that has allowed the rise to continue.”

A highlighted box emphasises the point: “Not the main driver but has likely contributed.”

The final strategy advocates possible use of “hotspot policing” and other forms of targeted policing where there is proven evidence of effectiveness. This does not mean an increase in police numbers, but rather a redistribution of officers, including community support officers, to neighbourhoods identified as being crime hotspots.

The strategy does not advocate increased use of stop and search, saying College of Policing and the Home Office research shows changes in the use of the controversial method only have minimal effects, at best, on trends in violent crime, even when measured at the local level.

Looking at individual drivers behind violent crime, the strategy says it shares similar risk factors with other types of crime and antisocial behaviour and will also link with other “poor life outcomes” such as low educational attainment, poor health and unemployment.

“Consequently socio-economic improvements, strengthening ties to family, school and non-violent norms are key areas for reducing violence,” it said.

A study looking at 80 firearms offenders convicted in England and Wales found most came from disrupted family environments and more than half reported being excluded from school, the report said.

The strategy also flags an increase in the number of “vulnerable” people in society as being a possible factor behind the rise in violent crime, including homeless adults, children excluded from school and children in care.

This echoes lines in the latest leak of Home Office research to the Guardian, which says that “increases in homelessness and children either excluded or in care, which raises numbers of people susceptible to both drug use and recruitment into selling/running”.

Young people who became involved in gangs were characterised by childhood disadvantage, including family poverty and living in high crime neighbourhoods, it said. Therewas also “strong evidence” that rival gangs were using social media to promote gang culture, taunt each other and incite violence, the document said.