Latest Guardian Essential poll puts Labor ahead of the Coalition 54% to 46% as voter disapproval of the PM jumps by nine points

This article is more than 1 year old

This article is more than 1 year old

Labor has pulled further in front of the Coalition in the national political contest, and voter disapproval of Scott Morrison has jumped by nine points in a month, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.

The latest survey of 1,028 voters puts Labor ahead of the Coalition 54% to 46% on the two-party-preferred measure, compared with 53% to 47% a fortnight ago – a result that would give Bill Shorten an easy election win.

More voters (41%) approve of Morrison’s performance as prime minister than disapprove (37%), but disapproval has risen from 28% in October, a shift outside the poll’s margin of error which is plus or minus 3%.

Morrison’s net approval rating has been in positive territory since he took the Liberal leadership in bitterly contested circumstances, suggesting voters have been willing to indulge his opening pitch, but the result this fortnight means the prime minister’s rating has slipped from +15 to +4.

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The Labor leader, Bill Shorten, has recorded a five-point increase in his approval rating over the month (33% to 38%) and his disapproval is down one point to 44%. Shorten’s net approval rating remains in negative territory, but there has been an improvement from -12 to -6.

Morrison remains ahead of Shorten as preferred prime minister 41% to 29%, a similar result to a month ago, where Morrison was ahead 42% to 27%.

The bad portents in the new poll follow several scrappy weeks for Morrison and the government. A series of leaks, stumbles and controversies culminated in the loss of Malcolm Turnbull’s former seat of Wentworth in late October – a development that has cost the government its majority in the House of Representatives and emboldened the cross bench.

The Australian Electoral Commission on Monday declared the high-profile independent Kerryn Phelps the winner of the Wentworth contest with a margin of 1,851 votes or 1.2% in two-party-preferred terms after a record 19% swing against the Liberal party.

Ahead of the resumption of parliament for the final sitting weeks before the summer break, Morrison has hit the road, embarking on a campaign dry run in Queensland this week, swinging through several marginal seats critical to the outcome of the next federal election.

The government is hopeful about its electoral prospects in Queensland, a state where Turnbull was considered unpopular, and Morrison is spending a lot of time projecting what his strategists consider to be a relatable persona, with frequent social media posts heavy on vernacular.

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But Shorten and Labor have already done considerable groundwork in Queensland during this term in opposition. The Labor leader has visited Queensland 47 times since the last federal election, concentrating on regional seats.

Labor is already distributing new campaign materials in Queensland highlighting Morrison’s record as treasurer, and emphasising the leadership instability in the Liberal party.

As he attempts to win over Queensland voters, Morrison, who clashed with Turnbull last week, will also have to deal with the first major television interview from his predecessor since the conservative-led leadership coup in August. Turnbull is due to appear solo on the ABC’s Q&A program on Thursday evening.

Voters in the Guardian Essential sample this fortnight were asked about coal-fired power, support for the royal family and a republic in the wake of the recent tour by the Duke and Duchess of Sussex, and about horse racing, with the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday.

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Voters were split about whether the government should provide support to new coal-fired power stations, including indemnifying them against the risk of a future carbon price, an idea floated by the energy minister, Angus Taylor – 39% approved of the idea and 35% disapproved.

A majority of Coalition voters approved (58%) while 65% of Greens voters disapproved. Labor voters were split, with 33% approving and 40% disapproving.

More voters want a republic than oppose that change (44% to 32%), with young people more supportive than voters over 55. There has been a 4% drop in support for a republic since the question was last put in May.

Perceptions of Queen Elizabeth, Prince William and Prince Harry are highly favourable, with 70% having a positive opinion of Prince Harry, 68% of Prince William and 61% of Queen Elizabeth. Prince Charles – the heir to the throne – is less popular, with only 33% having a favourable view.

On horse racing, 8% profess high interest in the sport and 20% have a moderate interest, with 70% say they have low or no interest. Despite only 19% of the sample reporting they regularly bet on horse races, 38% said they would be watching the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday and placing a bet, and 33% say they would be watching the event but not placing a bet.

One in three said they had never been interested in the Melbourne Cup, with 26% saying they had become less interested because of concerns about problem gambling and 29% reporting they had become less interested because of concerns about animal welfare.