Playoff seeding is unfair? Football is unfair.

Football isn’t fair.

An obvious maxim, perhaps, but sometimes it’s worthwhile to contemplate its myriad forms of unfairness. We witnessed most of them last Sunday in the first legs of the MLS Conference finals, beginning with Will Trapp’s long, familiar pass to the head of Kei Kamara mere seconds into the start of the Columbus Crew’s match against the New York Red Bulls. The on-rushing Kamara headed down to Ethan Finlay, who got it to the feet of Justin Meram and then past Luis Robles, 1-0 for the Crew in which the visiting team were considered heavy favourites to find a way to the final and eventually, a first ever Major League Soccer Cup.

As Crew coach Gregg Berhalter said in his understated way of the fortuitous opening strike: “It [did] change the game a little bit.” The high-pressing Red Bulls managed to exert pressure now and again, with Sacha Kljestan failing to take advantage of a pair decent chances, but perhaps wary of conceding another, New York failed to push for an equalizer with urgency. They paid dearly when Cedrick Mabwati’s shot allowed Kamara to tap in for goal number two.

Which brings us to an entirely different mode of unfairness – MLS’s seeding arrangements in home-and-away series during these playoffs. Some fans might be wondering over the wisdom of awarding the lower seeds home field for the first leg. After all, both Portland and Columbus, playing with all the freedom of teams at home with 180 minutes (at least) of football ahead of them, managed to take decisive leads over cup final favourites FC Dallas and the Red Bulls ahead of the second legs, greatly reducing the likelihood we’ll get to see an MLS Cup featuring the two best teams in the league.

Yet this is how knockout football works. There is no perfect alchemy to ensure the teams which were superior over the entirety of the regular season have a pristine advantage in a two-game decider. A lot can happen in 90 minutes, whether a goal in the first nine seconds, or Dairon Asprilla’s bending golazo in Portland’s 3-1 victory over Dallas.

That’s what makes football unfair, sure, but it’s also what makes it fun.

Columbus should keep on keepin’ on

Berhalter’s Crew will no doubt make some specific tactical preparations for their trip to Red Bull Arena, though one hopes the coach won’t stray too far from what has been a winning formula so far this season, one that will give Columbus their best shot of winning an MLS Cup for the first time since 2008.

Yes, Columbus will be aware that the Red Bulls were uncharacteristically profligate last weekend, managing only two of their 16 total shots on target. They will also no doubt be aware of how Meram’s early goal affected the tenor of the match. Yet there is no obviously compelling reason for the Crew to change their game plan, including the standard “defend until they score and then push up for an away goal.”

Kamara’s instincts for place look intact, Meram and Ethan Finlay enjoyed a good freedom of movement out wide – particularly the latter despite the Red Bulls’ notorious press – and Gaston Sauro will be back to replace his admirable replacement Tyson Wahl alongside Michael Parkhurst in central defense. If the Crew don’t panic facing what will be an aggressive New York team, they should be fine.

Coach of the Year Jesse Marsch must follow script to win

This past week, Red Bulls coach Jesse Marsch was voted the 2015 MLS Coach of the Year. It’s not an insignificant honour, particularly as Marsch was called in to replace Mike Petke, a man popular with fans despite the club’s exit from the playoffs in the Conference finals against the New England Revolution last year. Together with the club’s new binder-toting sporting director Ali Curtis, Marsch helped the Red Bulls win a Supporters’ Shield title despite the departure of Thierry Henry.

And yet despite all that goodwill, here we are again with New York on the cusp of another exit at the brink of the final. Despite the high press, the emergence of Matt Miazga as one of the league’s preeminent defenders, and the continued dominance of Bradley Wright-Phillips up front, the Red Bulls may yet again go down in flames. As the locals say, that’s so metro.

That said, NYRB’s great escape may come from the same elements that gave Marsch coach of the year honours – a relentless high press, good movement through the middle from Klejstan, and some neat finishing from its forward line including Lloyd Sam and Mike Grella. An first half one-two could panic Berhalter’s Crew and at the very least put the game into extra time and thirty more minutes of home advantage for the game-chasing Red Bulls.

Timbers will hope results match style at Toyota Stadium

Who saw the now-very-likely-to-be MLS Cup finalists Timbers coming? Maybe no one, save for Caleb Porter and the team itself.

But back in April, a certain Guardian MLS preview writer said Portland’s season had been frustrating because they “...looked better than their record. Fanendo Adi is sharp in front of goal, Nat Borchers and Liam Ridgewell seem a reasonable centre-half pairing, and Diego Chara and Darlington Nagbe are both capable of technical brilliance in the centre of the pitch.”

Their opponents, incidentally, that weekend were FC Dallas, whom they beat 3-1 for their first victory of the 2015 season after starting with 3 draws and a loss. That result would help kick start the Timbers’ 2015 on their way to a not-always convincing trek to second place in the Western Conference. The two clubs would meet again in regular season play, in late July. The result? 4-1 FC Dallas.

Darlinton Nagbe moves past Victor Ulloa in last week’s first leg. Photograph: Steve Dipaola/AP

Should Portland concede the same result this weekend, they would lose out on their chance at the final. It’s not out of the realm of possibility; Dallas will be rampant at home, buoyed by their lonely away goal. Should Portland however once again to produce a result to match the quality of play the team has often produced this season, they’ll have a major opportunity to win their first ever MLS Cup.

FC Dallas needs to watch those set-pieces

Set pieces live in the strange outer world of football. Analysts sometimes speak of them as if they don’t exist, obsessed as they are with the beauty and allure of open play. Yet unchecked, they can undo otherwise brilliant, attack-minded teams.

Last Sunday, Oscar Pareja’s FC Dallas conceded two set-piece goals against Portland. Dairon Asprilla managed to head down a 23rd minute corner to a player as unmarked as they come in Liam Ridgewell, with neither Zach Lloyd and Matt Hedges apparently not even in the same state, let alone ballpark, to stop him. Then in the 90th minute with the game at 2-1 and FC Dallas looking very competitive heading into the home leg, Nagbe’s corner kick was headed toward goal by Norberto Paparatto. Though his shot was stopped, the bearded wonder Borchers forced the ball past Jesse Gonzalez.

Zach Loyd and Pareja offered some bland boilerplate in response to the shoddy defending, with the former acknowledging dead ball situations were “...something we really need to be more focused on and a little sharper on.” Yet should Dallas manage to get back in the game this weekend against the Timbers, the last thing they’ll want to do is give away free headers late on free kicks and see all their hard work undone.