After the tumult and tragedy of the campaign, it is vital that voters go into Thursday’s vote focused on a sober assessment of the issues.

This is one of the most important decisions Britain will make for generations. It needs to be anchored in a balanced analysis of the likely effects on the British economy of remaining in the European Union.

Official bodies such as the Treasury and the International Monetary Fund have made a series of exaggerated warnings about the effects of leaving, based on improbably precise forecasts that ignore what is actually happening inside the EU itself.

Remaining inside is very worrying for British competitiveness, jobs and prosperity. The financial system, on which everyone in Britain and all its businesses depend, is probably the most vulnerable part of the economy.

Clearly, the headline costs to the taxpayer are going to increase. Brussels is running out of money and that is likely to mean a substantial rise in the UK’s £10bn net contribution.

The EU has delayed a mid-term review of its 2014-20 budget until after the UK referendum. It is looking for more money because it has blown its budget. The EU has identified a gap of £20bn because of a backlog of “unpaid bills”. The UK may have to pay £2.4bn of that.