Illinois' Bruce Rauner remains the most vulnerable governor in America. | Seth Perlman/AP Photo The top 10 governor's races of 2018 Illinois' Bruce Rauner leads POLITICO's latest list of governorships most likely to flip, and Scott Walker is a new addition.

While Washington obsesses over congressional elections and gyrations in the generic ballot, the 36 races for governor across the country this fall could be the most consequential contests of 2018.

Special and off-year elections across the country suggest a possible Democratic wave that could reduce the party's historic deficit: Only 16 of the nation's 50 governors are Democrats. But 23 of the three-dozen gubernatorial races this year are in Republican-held states.


These races are critical to both parties' plans over the next four years: They can have a major impact on President Donald Trump's efforts to implement a conservative agenda, and many of these governors will play an important role in the redistricting process following the 2020 Census, shaping political maps for the coming decade.

Much has happened since we last updated our governors' race rankings late last year. In Illinois, both parties' front-runners have been besieged by their primary opponents, with just three-and-a-half weeks until voters go to the polls to pick the nominees. The Ohio primary isn't until May, but both parties have fights ahead there, too. In Alaska, the sitting, independent governor's approval ratings have plummeted, raising GOP hopes of taking back the Republican-leaning state in the fall.

As governors from across the country descend on Washington for the annual meeting of the National Governors Association, here is POLITICO's updated list of the 10 governorships most likely to change parties in November.

1. Illinois — Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner is running for reelection. (Previous ranking: 1)

Rauner remains the most vulnerable governor in America — but much has changed ahead of the March 20 primary. Rauner's primary challenger, state Rep. Jeanne Ives, is running incendiary television ads aimed at turning conservatives against the incumbent. But things may be even more unsettled on the Democratic side: Controversial comments by self-funding front-runner J.B. Pritzker about African-Americans has widened an opening for his opponents in the primary. State Sen. Daniel Biss has emerged as a top competitor to Pritzker in the primary and points to polls of him leading Rauner in the general election. Both Rauner and Pritzker have been forced to begin airing attack ads against their two main primary rivals. Rauner and Pritkzer, both billionaires, are still likely to win their bruising primaries, setting up the general election to be among the most expensive state races in the nation's history.

2. Maine — Republican Gov. Paul LePage is term-limited. (3)

No clear front-runner has emerged among the handful of candidates in Republican gubernatorial primary to succeed LePage, but state Senate President Mike Thibodeau and former state Health and Human Services Commissioner Mary Mayhew are positioned to vie for the nomination. Democrats are eager to retake control of the governor’s mansion — and while state Attorney General Janet Mills leads the primary field, attorney Adam Cote and former state House Speaker Mark Eves are running competitively in the primary, racking up endorsements and strong fundraising numbers.

New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez’s approval ratings are underwater. | Juan Labreche/AP Photo

3. New Mexico — Republican Gov. Susana Martinez is term-limited. (2)

Democrats face a contested primary: Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, the front-runner, has to fend off state Sen. Joe Cervantes and businessman Jeff Apodaca. Republican Rep. Steve Pearce is set to coast to the GOP nomination. Nevertheless, Democrats are bullish about their chances in New Mexico. Martinez’s approval ratings are underwater, and Hillary Clinton won the state in 2016. Also fueling Democratic optimism: Other prominent Democrats, like Sen. Martin Heinrich, are the heavy favorites to win their respective races.

4. Nevada — Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval is term-limited. (5)

Even if 2018 is a wave election for Democrats, Republicans could still come out holding on to Nevada’s governor’s mansion, where Sandoval remains popular, and state Attorney General Adam Laxalt holds a strong position at the front of the Republican primary for governor. Laxalt is competing against businessman Jared Fisher and state Treasurer Dan Schwartz in the GOP primary, but most polling shows Laxalt comfortably ahead. Democrats have a heated primary on their hands between Clark County Chairman Steve Sisolak and Clark County Vice Chairwoman Chris Giunchigliani. Giunchigliani has picked up endorsements from EMILY’s List and the Nevada State Education Association, while Sisolak has been endorsed by other influential unions, like the Clark County Education Association.

5. Alaska — Independent Gov. Bill Walker is seeking reelection. (7)

Walker's approval ratings have plummeted down below 30 percent, according to Morning Consult's polling over the fourth quarter of last year. A trio of Republicans are running in the gubernatorial primary to unseat Walker. Unless a strong Democratic candidate emerges — former Sen. Mark Begich has flirted with a possible candidacy — or Walker’s approval ratings improve, the race could be a strong pickup opportunity for Republicans.

6. Connecticut — Democratic Gov. Dannel Malloy is retiring. (4)

In the second half of 2017, Republicans were optimistic that Malloy’s notably low approval ratings and a large unwieldy primary opened the window for a GOP win in deep-blue Connecticut. But the Republican primary, like the Democratic one, is crowded and has shown no signs of straightening out. A Tremont Public Advisors poll released this week found the generic gubernatorial ballot statistically tied, compared to a GOP lead on the generic ballot last year. Still, a Democratic victory is far from certain, and former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz and 2006 Senate nominee Ned Lamont are competing in a crowded primary.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott is pictured. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

7. Florida — Republican Gov. Rick Scott is term-limited. (6)

Florida is one of four states — along with Nevada, Arizona and Ohio — where the Republican Governors Association has pre-booked a total of $20 million in advertising for the fall. Of those four states, the most money, $9.4 million, is going to Florida. Republicans face a massive, protracted battle in the late-August primary, however, between the well-funded state Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam and Trump-endorsed Rep. Ron DeSantis. The same is true in the four-way Democratic primary between Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, former Rep. Gwen Graham, businessman Chris King, and former Miami Beach Mayor Phillip Levine. The few polls of the primary have shown Graham leading, but a large chunk of those surveyed said they are undecided.

8. Ohio — Republican Gov. John Kasich is term-limited. (9)

Both parties are trying to cull their primary fields ahead of the early May vote. The state GOP central committee endorsed state Attorney General Mike DeWine over Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor, but Taylor has vowed to stay in the race. (Rep. Jim Renacci switched to the Senate race last month, making it a two-way race between DeWine and Taylor.) Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, former Rep. Dennis Kucinich roiled the race when he entered the contest on the eve of the filing deadline. Kucinich, this week, was endorsed by the Bernie Sanders-aligned Our Revolution group, a surprising move since frontrunner Richard Cordray had been scooping up endorsements from former competitors and Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Cordray is still the favorite for the nomination, but he’s being forced to respond to the iconoclastic Kucinich.

9. Maryland — Republican Gov. Larry Hogan is running for reelection. (10)

Hogan's approval ratings remain stellar. A Goucher College poll this week showed 61 percent of Marylanders approve of Hogan's job performance, while only 18 percent disapprove. But take a closer look at Hogan's reelect numbers: Just 47 percent say they will vote to reelect Hogan, while 43 percent say they definitely or lean toward voting for another candidate. The same poll showed a wide-open Democratic primary race. Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker led Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz in the Democratic primary, 19 percent to 12 percent, with former NAACP president and CEO Ben Jealous at 10 percent.

10. Wisconsin — Republican Gov. Scott Walker is running for reelection. (Not rated)

Walker is seeking a third term in 2018, and Democrats are hungry to stop him. A surprise Democratic victory in a state Senate special election last month has Democrats optimistic they might finally topple Walker, who has won three statewide elections since 2010. But there’s no clear front-runner in the primary among the more than a dozen candidates running. Walker’s reelection team has already begun aggressively running a campaign aimed at highlighting the governor’s accomplishments. Walker himself has also made sure to endorse and hold fundraisers around the country for gubernatorial and Senate candidates to help build his network for reelection.

Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order): Georgia, Iowa, Michigan (8), Pennsylvania, Tennessee