Younkers closures could cost Iowa 800 jobs. But will the retail sector notice?

While the bankruptcy of Younkers' parent company Bon-Ton could put hundreds of Iowa employees out of work, local experts predict it won't put much of a dent in the local retail economy.

"This is a loss," said Dave Swenson, an Iowa State University economist, "but overall the retail sector isn't even going to notice it."

A hearing was scheduled for Wednesday afternoon for a Delaware bankruptcy judge to sign off on the sale of Bon-Ton Stores Inc. to a liquidation firm for $775.5 million. The transaction assures the end of Younkers, which operates four stores in the Des Moines area and 17 across the state.

► Previously: Younkers stores in Iowa could close as company heads to liquidation

The company has already notified the state that it could lay off as many as 800 workers across Iowa. State and federal law requires employers to give 60 days advance notice of certain plant closings and mass layoffs.

But those figures are likely conservative: Only eight of the company's 17 Iowa stores are listed on an Iowa Workforce Development log of expected layoffs.

That includes the Younkers stores at Merle Hay Mall in Des Moines as well as Valley West Mall and Jordan Creek Town Center in West Des Moines. Another 50 work at the Southridge Mall location puts the total central Iowa Younkers workforce at more than 400 people.

Swenson said employment in a regional economy is a function of consumer demand. And consumer demand for retail hasn't significantly changed, Swenson said.

The Des Moines-area economy continues to expand. So the dollars Iowans spent at Younkers will likely now move to other local stores, increasing their demand for workers, Swenson said.

"We would expect the region’s retail sector to be able to absorb a good fraction of those workers," he said. "This notwithstanding, the retail sector is going to remain strong in the region."

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In fact, Iowa Workforce Development's online jobs listing show hundreds of retail job openings in central Iowa. In March, employers in Polk and Dallas county were looking for nearly 500 retail sales workers and more than 700 retail supervisors.

And employers across the state routinely complain about not being able to find qualified workers for job openings. Iowa's February unemployment rate of 2.9 percent tied for the nation's overall sixth-lowest rate, underscoring the state's thin labor pool.

► More: Reynolds wants $18 million to address Iowa's workforce shortage

Swenson said Younkers employees in smaller towns may struggle more to find work after the closures. But all retail workers are constrained by some degree of specialization, particularly at a department store, where workers could build expertise in one corner of the store. Many of the employees likely don't even work enough hours to collect unemployment benefits, Swenson said.

"It just is the nature of retail," he said. "It's not the same as losing a dozen or two dozen factory workers in a small town."

West Des Moines will see the largest loss of jobs as Younkers closes two of its largest local stores there. Younkers officials notified the state they would lay off 164 people at the Valley West Store and another 108 at Jordan Creek.

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"In the overall scheme of things that's not significant," said Clyde Evans, economic development director for West Des Moines. "Granted, it's very significant for those people that are going to lose their jobs. But with the way the economy is and the number of open jobs out there, I would think most folks wouldn't have a hard time finding a new job."

And if the displaced workers can't find suitable work in retail, plenty of other industries are hiring.

"There’s openings in all sectors," Evans said. "You can drive around town and you’ll see help wanted signs out almost all over."

Still, the closure of all Younkers and Bon-Ton stores could leave some of the company's more specialized workers with few options for comparable work, said Anne Brouwer, a retail analyst at Chicago-based McMillan Doolittle.

"For some of the hourly employees, they may be able to find comparable pay and benefits elsewhere," she said. "But for management level people that may be a lot harder."

Like other sectors, jobs in retail continue to evolve. And employers increasingly demand specific technical skills or expertise of their employers.

"A lot of these people are going to lose their jobs and its not easy today to find a new job in retail," Brouwer said. "Some of those people will be young enough and skilled enough to find other opportunities, but it's not going to be easy for a lot of the people who maybe don't have the most current technical skills."