Initial thoughts on the 2016 Libertarian Party convention:

Wow, our poll was mostly right. While we didn’t hit everything within our 4.5 MOE, we nailed the final vote winner and final ballot order. Not bad for the first scientific poll to ever pierce the Libertarian veil.

Rather noteworthy, McAfee’s support didn’t fade at all between first and second ballots.

Gary Johnson was a clear winner among Libertarians, but has to make the case to voters during what will continue to be a negative and acrimonious election… Does he have the stomach to pick up the mud and sling it back in order to give voters what they apparently want?

44% did not vote for Johnson. Although his executive credibility as former Governor of New Mexico is apparent, it’s yet to be seen if there is high enthusiasm for Johnson’s second swing at the presidency nor how his lawsuit against the CPD will proceed.

Johnson is certainly the #NeverTrump and #NeverHillary choice among disaffected Republicans and even disaffected Democrats. The money will finally be there for Libertarians, which will be something that has never happened before. It will be interesting to see if it will be used for becoming just another voice at a debate podium or for paving a path to the White House with an effective 50 state strategy.

MOE Analysis:



Second ballot results (final):



First ballot results:



UPDATE: Former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld has been selected as the Vice Presidential nominee after a very contentious first and second ballot, including a very strange moment where Alicia Dearn tried to make him take an oath “not to betray the Libertarian Party”. Weld would not say the exact words but an impassioned plea from Gary Johnson helped squeak him over the top. Two former Republican Governors are now sitting at the top of the Libertarian Party ticket.

Second ballot results (final):



First ballot results:



UPDATE: Highly entertaining convention, including LNC chair nominee James Weeks, who dropped trou while dropping out. We must now call a point of order and are immediately seconded that our eyes need some bleach.

Curiously, reports were being volunteered from the floor about how Trump was making fun of the LP before this outburst, but not after.

Probably because there’s good material now. Not all press is good press.

FURTHER UPDATE: Despite Weeks’ two-minute Napoleon Dynamite dance routine gone wrong, Nicholas Sarwark comfortably clenched his re-election bid for LNC Chair. We’re 2/2 on our poll.

MOE Analysis:



First ballot results (final):

