You pretty much had to have Andrew McCutcheon at Coors for $4800 last night or your night was severely

handicapped. These nights happen in MLB from time to time, but wow….three bombs? Dude must’ve been pissed that he had to sit out a Coors game the day before. When I read the DNR and pulled the life support from my lineups, I saw him at 60 pts. Without having an outstanding night from my pitchers, it was Good Night, Charlie for me. I did, however, see some guys with very solid scores. Army members had numbers over 150 in a few places, but the biggest number I saw was the biggest I’ve seen yet for baseball anywhere……279! Whoever that guy is, he had his own 3-homer night for sure. I noticed it won him $40k, too. He deserved it; that was a great score.

Our own @Mawhee290 posted a great score, though. I imagine is was close to his personal best if he doesn’t have a #200Club lineup in the bag yet. Any profit is nice, but this is a very solid night in what the lineup accomplished.

We now have downloadable podcasts for those living life Shawshank style and completely on the run. These pods contain strategy and slate breakdowns alternating days. Today, the plan is to get into what makes a guy a cash player in MLB vs a GPP-only type of guy. I won’t go into it here, but let’s just say

McCutcheon, while a great player and usually a cash type guy, wasn’t a cash guy last night….even in Coors. For more, tune into the podcast as I’m sure we’ll debate that one real good. For a link to the podcasts, look to our website https://www.dfsarmy.com/. And, if you want to interact and don’t have access to our Slack Forums yet, hit me up on Twitter and follow @Choppography .

Full slate of games again today. Again, TIP: Newer players should focus on the smaller slates offered like the Express. You have a better shot since you don’t have as many players from which to choose….and therefore make mistakes. Experienced players can break down a full slate much faster (most of these players have more time, too) and can attack the right spots giving them a decided advantage over you.

Weather concerns: [email protected] – Not much going on early in this game, but as the game wears on the rain chances creep over 50%. This shouldn’t affect starters, but if the game gets called in the 8th for some reason, you lose and AB from some of your hitters. I don’t like these spots. [email protected] – I hate to say it, but this is a similar situation. Tread lightly. [email protected] – This one has 60% chances of rain throughout. I won’t be touching pitchers. But, bats may be in play. I got burned by the NYY/TEX game last night. These are about the only games to watch for in my opinion.

I told you this article would evolve and flow as I try new things, layouts, and formats. So, bear with me as we change things up again a little. Let’s start, though, with the at-a-glance graphic we always do. Again, for details in reading it, you will find those down at the very bottom of Chin Music.

Before we get to the games and players, I plan to give you a quick synopsis of the game and how it relates to others I’m watching more favorably. Below that, you will see who to watch for based on season numbers against that particular handedness of pitcher. Guys outperforming their season numbers over the past week will be in bold. Below that will be a section on impressive BvP matchups. Their salaries are based on FanDuel pricing. You can either look up those stats yourself or take my word for it and save yourself some time. That choice is always yours. I’m not looking a lot farther than OPS, wOBA, and fantasy point production in my numbers before listing a guy. Believe me, they will be relevant players. Hidden gems will slip past me. Oh well.

[email protected] – Gio Gonzalez is a pitcher I like to roll out when facing a team that can swing and miss. He can be a bit up and down, but I like his price tonight again. Only concern is weather. It shouldn’t affect starters much, but it is noteworthy. WAS bats are in play vs Hellickson, but I like other spots more. I’m off Philly again in both pitching and bats. Darin Ruf, though, does have incredible BvP numbers vs Gio……in 26 ABs, he has 9 hits and 3 bombs for a .523 wOBA.

Look for: Gio (9600), Harper (5700), Franco (3500)

BvP watch: Werth (3100), Ruf (2000)

[email protected] – Two middling pitchers might be worth looking into on DraftKings, but I won’t be. I’m not necessarily attacking them tonight, though, either. TOR isn’t hot yet and still remains really pricey. They have nice GPP options, but not really for cash imo. CWS is very similar, but have much cheaper price tags. Todd Frazier does have 2 HRs in 14 ABs vs Estrada.

Look for: Donaldson (4800), Bautista (4600), Carrera (3100), Pillar (2900), Melky Cabrera (3300), Todd Frazier (4000)

BvP watch: Encarnacion (3800), Frazier

OAK @DET – Verlander has been getting blown up his 2nd time through rotations and is just not the same pitcher he once was in my opinion. Sonny Gray is way overpriced on FanDuel for his limited upside in this matchup. Both can be good pitchers, too, so temper expectation with bats. DET does have power when those bats wake up, and OAK is cheap for some of the heart-of-the-order guys you can get. I’m just not stacking anyone. I’m focused elsewhere obviously, but here is who has shown good numbers so far….

Look for: Saltalamacchia (2800), VMartinez (2800), Miguel Cabrera (3700), Reddick (3400), Vogt (2600), Coghlan (2500)

BvP watch: Billy Butler (2200) in 84 ABs has .950 OPS and a couple homers off Verlander.

[email protected] – Good God. Bud Norris actually makes Steven Wright a viable pitching option, especially on DK. Wright has Vegas heavily on his side. The Sawx will provide the run support vs Norris (totally stackable fwiw). You won’t get a lot of strikeouts and need to look into his WHIP stats, but I’m very intrigued by his ability to get the win and his price tag tonight. I love targeting Bud Norris. I won’t be using ATL bats, but might just load up on BOS bats, likely very much so if Big Papi (David Ortiz) plays tonight after a couple games of rest.

Look for: Wright (6900), Pedroia (3300), Ortiz (3500), Bogaertes (3700), Shaw (2800), Betts (4500), Markakis (3100)

BvP watch: Pedroia, Ortiz

[email protected] – Mediocre pitching matchups here. Both are targetable, but Tillman’s SIERA is one of the worst on the slate. He has far from elite strikeout stuff and should give up some runs. However, temper expectations, Vegas doesn’t think this game goes bonkers…..neither do I. Rays bats are in play, but I’m not stacking. O’s bats can explode, but I’m not super high on them as they don’t handle lefties well outside of Jones and Weiters. Trumbo might be cooling off a bit…..caution.

Look for: Forsythe (3600), Dickerson (3200), Souza (3200), Kiermeier (2600), Trumbo (3800)

BvP watch: Longoria (3000) in 51 ABs has 17 hits and 7 dongs!, Forsythe 22 ABs with 7 hits, Souza 14 ABs with 4 hits and a dong. Jones (2700) at 24 ABs, 11 hits, 2 homers. Weiters (2400) at 17 ABs with 8 hits and 2 bombs.

[email protected] – Matt Harvey is definitely in play for either format. Great strikeout stuff usually, a heavy favorite and in a pitcher’s park. Only issue is Reds don’t strikeout a lot…..and scratched some runs across on Syndergaard in his last start. Mets should be in line for the win, though, because the pitcher they are tossing out might as well have come from my softball league. Moscot has the worst SIERA on board tonight and only fans 10% of his batters so far this season. I’m looking to attack this guy pretty hard, even in Citi Field with Mets. The Mets have the 6th highest Vegas total on board tonight. I’m off all Reds….period.

Look for: Walker (3700), Granderson (3600), Duda (3400), Cespesdes (4400), Conforto (3800)

BvP watch: No history vs Moscot. Brandon Phillips looked interesting, but it was 6 ABs.

[email protected] – I have no issues rostering Arreita at any price. It’s my belief that you just roster Arietta in cash when you see him. He’s that unhittable right now. Jungerman isn’t going to be on a roster even in GPPs. You can attack him to a certain degree, but I’m not stacking Cubs at their prices against him. There are a couple intriguing BvP matchups against Arrietta in Braun and the cheaper than cheap Aaron Hill. Both have a bomb off Jake. I’m a huge fan of Dexter Fowler right now, but his numbers dipped a bit this week and we might be wary of some regression at this price. A .497 wOBA just isn’t sustainable for months at a time.

Look for: Fowler (4100), Rizzo (4600), Bryant (4400)

BvP watch: Braun (4500), Hill (2100)….Hill is 7/17 vs Arietta….sneaky for cheap.

[email protected] – Cebathia and Perez in the dual lefty matchups in a 9.5 o/u game in a hitter’s park? Nope. I’m on the bats, though. Weather has moved east and we should see a little tonight, hopefully from both dugouts. Both pitchers have SIERAs over 4.00, indicating they are vulnerable. Both teams’ bats are due to wake up soon, too. This would be a neat game to just stack 4 and 4 in GPPs while fading Coors. The potential is there. Look at these prices! Way too low for their potential.

Look for: Castro (3000), Beltran (3000), McCann (3400), Teixera (3300), Ellsbury (3300), Fielder (2900), Beltre (3300), Desmond (3100), Odor (3400)

BvP watch: nothing significant actually outside Adrian Beltre.

[email protected] – Tomlin is an “ok” play, but I like others better…..especially given the weather forecast. I hate to shy away from some of these hitters when facing non-elite pitching. CLE bats being most intriguing vs a new pitcher. But, that weather likely takes me off this game in cash especially.

Look for: Santana (3000), Kipnis (3300), Byrd (3100), Davis (3800), Gomes (3000), Mauer (3200), Dozier (3100), Sano (3400)

BvP watch: Joe Mauer has decent numbers, but nothing eye-popping

[email protected] – Neither pitcher has horrid metrics so far, but neither is worth drafting. It’s Coors. Feel free to pick some bats tonight with no weather concerns. Realize, though, everyone else will be too.

Look for: Raburn (3300), Arenado (5100), Story (4200), Paulsen (2800), Parra (3500), Jaso (3600), McCutcheon (4800), Marte (4500), Polanco (3800), Joyce (3300)

BvP watch: Reynolds (3300) – 15 ABs, 8 hits, 2 deep. CarGo (4000) – 16/5/1.

[email protected] – I’ve been chirping “no lefties vs STL” and was only right with Liriano to open the season. I’m not quite sold, but the Cardinals are scoring tons of runs, have solid lefty numbers right now, and are in a great hitter’s park facing mediocre LHP. I’m on ARI bats, too. Waino is in bad shape right now and I have no reason, until I see it, to think he has corrected anything. There are rumors that his plant foot isn’t recovered from surgery, and of course he’s just not as young as he once was. He has some great starts left in him, I’m sure. But, ARI is a great hitting team, in a great hitter’s park……and swinging hot bats. Another completely stackable game in my opinion.

Look for: Carpenter (4000), Piscotty (3200), Goldschmidt (4800), Segura (3500), Lamb (2800), Peralta (3500), Tomas (3700), Castillo (3700), Drury (2400)

BvP watch: Castillo – small sample, Segura – 19 AB, 8 hits, 1 deep fly.

[email protected] – Tropeanu and Young are SP2s on DK but not on my FD radar. This game is largely meh for me. I have much better games to target elsewhere. Neither team strikes out much, so you better pick the winner if you take a pitcher.

Look for: No one excites me.

BvP watch: Pujols (3300), Calhoun (3200), Soto (2200) – if playing

[email protected] – Iwakuma is in play here for me and won’t be picked up by many. He strikes hitters out ok, but when combined with the free-swinging Astros in his home park, just might be a nice night. -135 Vegas fave helps, too. He allows bats at his sub-9k price tag. McHugh isn’t on my radar.

Look for: Cano (3400), Smith (2600), Martin (2800), Seager (3200), Rasmus (3700), Altuve (4400)

BvP watch: Altuve – 27 AB, 10 hits. Nelson Cruz (4000) – 11 ABs, 4 hits, 2 big flies!

[email protected] – Kazmir is another value pitcher tonight if you want bats. He is a clear favorite going agaisnt a pitcher with a 5.47 SIERA we want to attak. Run support might not be an issue for Kazmir in getting the win. Plenty of bats to choose from here……even possibly a late night hammer of bats, should you go that route.

Look for: Hernandez (2700), Thompson (2300), Gonzalez (3400), Seager (4100), Puig (3500), Stanton (4600), Yelich (3400)

No significant BvP matchups.

How to read the graphic above:

Home and away teams are pretty simple. Pitchers tend to pitch better at home.

Weather matters huge in MLB. Green is good, red is bad. Anything over a “5” should give you pause in rostering a pitcher. Hitters aren’t as affected, but warming up and shutting down and warming up and shutting down isn’t something managers like to do to their pitchers. Any delays will shorten the “lifespan” of your pitcher and affect the opportunity he has to score you points. A “0” indicates a dome team.

Favored team according to Vegas. Vegas P gives the moneyline and by how much the favored team is favored. The bigger the number, the better our pitchers has a shot at earning the win. I typically look for a number larger than 150. Vegas B shows how many combined runs Vegas is projecting the hitters to score. For hitters, the bigger the better. For pitchers, the smaller the better. The last thing you want is your pitcher on the mound in a slugfest.

Park Factor is a rating assembled by combining historical numbers of runs and home runs scored over the past few seasons. This rating is expressed in comparison to the “average” ballpark. Average is a score of 100. The greater the difference from average, the more the park favors hitters (greater than 100) or pitchers (less than 100). This number is not foolproof, though. For example, if we assembled a team of weak hitters and had them play half their games in a great ballpark, we would undoubtedly see a suppressed ballpark factor rating. But, it does give us a great idea on a given slate where we may/may not see runs scored. Use in conjunction with the Vegas B column. If you see a green number in both columns, you can consider rostering hitters from that game.

In researching pitchers, I want a heavy favorite in Vegas, a red number in Vegas B, and good weather. I also want to see a ballpark that’s bad for hitters, if possible. That’s really about it to narrowing down my list of choices for who I’ll start as a pitcher.

In researching hitters, I want a green Vegas B number, good weather (but it doesn’t have to be perfect), and a hitter’s park to play in, if possible. But, mostly I want terrible pitching on the mound. This is indicated by high run totals (green Vegas B) and even the Vegas P column because a team that is heavily favored “can be” facing terrible pitching. But, that’s getting a bit specific for this quick-hitting column. That simple graphic can really tell you a lot in 30 seconds.