19 November 2018 (Ottawa ON) – The BC NDP and the BC Liberals find themselves in a statistical tie in the upcoming provincial by-election in Nanaimo.

Also, Jagmeet Singh and Maxime Bernier would lose in their respective ridings if an election were held today.

Those are the findings from three polls in the federal ridings of Beauce and Burnaby South and the provincial riding of Nanaimo.

“The upcoming by-election in Nanaimo is important for both parties as it could let the Liberals take the lead in the seat count in the BC legislature,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “When asking Nanaimo residents what party they would vote for, the NDP lead by eight, but they are virtually tied when Nanaimo residents were asked about what candidate they would vote for.”

Among decided and leaning voters, Sheila Malcolmson of the NDP has 39.8%, while Tony Harris of the BC Liberals has 38.2%.

In Beauce, recently nominated candidate Richard Lehoux of the Conservatives has 37.9% support, while Bernier has 34.7% support among decided and leaning voters.

“Bernier narrows the gap when we ask Beauce residents which candidates they would vote for,” continued Maggi. “But there is no mistake that Bernier would be in trouble if the election were held today.

Finally, 35.9% of decided and leaning voters in Burnaby South said that they would vote Liberal in the upcoming by-election, while 29.3% said that they would vote Conservative. 27.2% said that they would vote NDP.

“Given these numbers, it is surprising to see the NDP clamour for a by-election”, concluded Maggi.

In ridings were parties have not nominated candidates for the next election, respondents were asked about the candidates that were fielded in the previous election. In the case of Burnaby South, no question about local candidates was asked as Singh is so far the only nominated candidate in the upcoming by-election.

The sample sizes and margins of error, in all cases, accurate 19 times out of 20, for each survey are as follows: Beauce: n=616, +/- 3.95%, Burnaby South: n=366, +/- 5.12%, Nanaimo: n=594, +/- 4.02%.

-30-

Mainstreet Ridingpolls 19nov2018 by Mainstreet on Scribd