assembly-elections

Updated: Oct 06, 2019 05:57 IST

When the 18. 3 million voters of Haryana turn out on October 21 to elect a new legislative assembly, will they vote along the same lines as they did five months ago in the Lok Sabha polls?

This question is at the heart of the electoral battle that defines the geographically small – the state has just 90 assembly seats -- but strategically important state.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is hoping that the issues remain broadly the same. Nationalism spurred on by the Balakot air strikes played a major role in the party’s clean sweep of all 10 Lok Sabha seats. This time, the BJP hopes the scrapping of Article 370, which bestowed special status on Jammu & Kashmir, will generate a similar sense of patriotic fervor that will override local issues and anti-incumbency.

That’s why the rallying cry for the party, led by chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar, is `Ab ki baar, 70 paar’ ( This time around, we’ll cross 70). That’s quite a leap for an incumbent party which in the 2014 assembly elections won 46 seats.

The BJP’s confidence is based on a strategy that banks on nationalism and other factors working to its advantage.

“Kisan and jawan (the farmer and the soldier) are key issues here in Haryana,’’ said Subhash Barala, the state party unit chief, “So nationalism really plays a major role among voters in the state,’’ he added.

The party’s nationalism plank is based on calculation that Haryana contributes heavily to personnel in the army and the paramilitary forces, and, therefore, what happens at the border resonates deeply with local voters.

The other prong of the BJP’s strategy is the relatively clean image of Khattar, who is the face of the campaign.

The state’s opposition parties have entrenched families leading the electoral fight. The Congress has the Hoodas and Bishnois while the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), and its offshoot the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), have the Chautalas. Unlike them, Khattar does not belong to a political family.

“Khattar is in the mould of [Prime Minister Narendra] Modi,’’ said professor Ashutosh Kumar of Panjab University, “Just like the PM, he is a bachelor and not a dynast. So unlike the other politicians in the state, he’s not seen trying to promote family or children.’’

Kumar argued that many dynasts lost in recent elections because the people were “sick of them’’. In the 2019 general election, the only political scion to win was BJP minister Birender Singh’s son, Brijendra Singh, while former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s son Deepinder Hooda, former minister Kuldeep Bishnoi’s son Bhavya, and former CM OP Chautala’s son Dushyant all lost the polls.

Analysts credit Khattar with efforts to end the so-called culture of “parchi aur kharchi’’ (patronage and payment) in Haryana as well as curb the influence of the powerful Jat community that makes up 25% of Haryana’s population. The BJP claims Khattar has brought in relatively cleaner politics in the state.

Hailing from the Punjabi Khatri caste, Khattar is the rare non-Jat leader in a state dominated by the agricultural Jat community. The Opposition says the BJP is trying to polarise votes between Jats and non-Jat voters, a charge denied by the saffron party.

But there are signs that the BJP’s broad social and non-Jat coalition is forcing Jat leaders in the opposition to change their narrative. Bhupender Singh Hooda told HT that it was a misnomer to call him “a Jat leader.’’

“I am not a leader of Jats only but of all the people,’’ he said.

The BJP has been helped by factionalism and inner party strife in the Opposition camp. The INLD is a shadow of its former self after Digvijay and Dushyant Chautala left the party and formed JJP. The Congress has been torn by factional fights between Hooda and former state chief Ashok Tanwar, who quit the party on Saturday.

“We are the biggest regional party,’’ said Dushyant, alleging that dissent was brewing in the BJP after candidate selection. Chautala said they would attack Khattar on violence that broke in the initial years of his government, such as the riots during the 2016 Jat quota stir and the clashes that killed 30 people in Panchkula following the August 2017 conviction of Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Raheem Singh.

“Khattar wasn’t just the CM, he is the home minister as well. We haven’t seen anything like Panchkula violence in Haryana,’’ said Chautala.

Dushyant and the Congress are united in the belief that the assembly election will be fought on issues different from those in the May general elections. The Congress is hoping it can cash in on law-and-order issues to overcome the open rebellion in its camp. Though Tanwar has been recently replaced as state unit chief by Kumari Selja, the infighting has not been stamped out.

Kumar blamed the Congress for not resolving the brewing discontent. “It is foolishness if Tanwar’s nominees are missing from the list,” said Kumar, referring to the Dalit leader’s allegations that his associates were left out. “There are 20% dalits in Haryana.’’

Even Hooda admitted that his party leadership had been indecisive for too long. “It is better late than never. After the Lok Sabha elections, our workers were demoralised and they saw no hope but that has changed now,’’ he told HT.

It’s not that there isn’t factionalism in the BJP. Dropping two ministers and several MLAs means that the saffron party also has many unhappy people in its ranks.

“In the end, Haryana is dominated by satellite politics-- which means that it is largely influenced by Delhi,’’ said Kumar.