Should we welcome a country called Kurdistan to the community of nations? That question, first uttered seriously a century ago, has suddenly become more urgent. On Monday, the Kurdish people who make up half the population of northern Iraq voted overwhelmingly in an advisory referendum (92 per cent) to secede from the U.S.-backed Iraqi regime and form a new country.

The Kurdish vote immediately provoked a furious response from Baghdad – a response that could lead to a violent confrontation – and a confused range of responses from countries that have otherwise supported the Kurdish people.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded as other leaders of countries that have struggled with secession movements did: "As a Quebecker, I'm very sensitive to other countries weighing in on internal decisions around the future of a country or separation questions," he said on Monday, and declined to take a stand. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded by ordering his ministers and officials not to comment, according to Reuters, despite the fact that Israelis have often supported Kurds, who are in a position not unlike Jews before 1948. It could well be that Mr. Netanyahu suddenly realized that Kurds now look more like Palestinians after 1948. As such, he joined a chorus of silence around the Kurdish vote.

Story continues below advertisement

In other words, a lot of friends of the Kurds have become less friendly when it comes down to an actual real-life Kurdistan. That is not to say that endorsing a Kurdish state is the right decision today.

As a rule, ethnic nationhood is a terrible idea – an idea that, after it sprang into popularity in the late 19th century, was responsible for many of the worst atrocities and horrors of the 20th. Because no territory has ever been truly multi-ethnic, nationhood tends to multiply, rather than end, the violent repression of ethnic, linguistic and religious groups. And it tends to press its populations into homogeneity and away from pluralism, the opposite of what makes nations succeed.

As Canadians have learned the hard way, it is far better to encourage the formation of multi-ethnic federations with special distinct society rights for regionally concentrated minorities. That's what the Kurds won for themselves in northern Iraq; it's what they were nearly granted in their territory in southeastern Turkey a decade ago, before Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan turned angrily against them in his shift away from democracy.

There are exceptions to the rule – cases where the physical and political threat to a minority group is so devastating and total and potentially genocidal that the only viable solution is the creation of a new state, in which they are a majority. Ethnic states have become tragic necessities exactly three times in history: The creation of Armenia in 1918, of Israel in 1948 and of Kosovo between 1999 and 2008.

Kurds, unlike Britons or Catalans or Californians, do have some compelling reasons to seek independence. They have been victims of terrible mistreatment by successive Iraqi regimes, including a genocidal chemical-warfare murder of 100,000 at the hands of Saddam Hussein. They face genuine peril today.

But a solution to the Kurdish crisis would have to extend far beyond northern Iraq (where Kurds, thanks to oil wealth, have already won a stable semi-autonomy that ought to be preserved). The situation of Kurds in Syria and Turkey is dire, as their militias were the most important fighters against Bashar al-Assad's Syrian regime and against the self-proclaimed Islamic State. Now that Russia has effectively ensured a civil-war victory for Mr. Assad, Kurdish communities in Syria face a frightening future. So do Turkey's Kurds, who are subject to a terrible war of vengeance from Ankara (as well as the sometimes extreme actions of their own militias).

A wider Kurdistan carved from Kurdish-plurality portions of Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Iran might seem the obvious outcome – but Kurds haven't sought that, because it would be unimaginable in any real-world Middle East. Like most such solutions, attempting it would cause far greater devastation and death than its existence would ameliorate.

Story continues below advertisement

And that is the fundamental calculus of secession: Will it create more misery than it solves? In the case of the Kurds, at the moment we are better off supporting other, non-national solutions.