We’re sixteen days from the launch of the NFL 2015 campaign. If you’re an NFL fan, then you — like me — are unavoidably thinking that this is the year for your team. Don’t lie, fool, I can tell you’re thinking of a possible 10-6 record, maybe even 12-4, a trip to the playoffs, a couple of upset wins, and then … AND THEN?? … boom, your QB is lifting the trophy.

Of course, imagining this kind of success is well nigh insanity for most us. Over the past decade, unless you root for the Pats, Steelers, Colts or Packers, a winning record and a trip to the playoffs are pretty much a crap shoot. You’re in Vegas, baby, without Rain Man, and the house always wins. By “house” I mean “other teams,” of course. Yes, Seahawks fans, this 10-year measurement of consistency includes you.

Yet still, here you are, dreaming of double-digit wins and the promise of playoff gold. You beautiful, mad fool, you. You are lying to yourself. So am I. So are most NFL fans. So here are the top-10 lies I tell myself every year about my beloved Detroit Lions. Yes, the Silver & Blue made the playoffs last year (which was awesome) and then lost to the ‘Boys on a game-winning drive (which was not awesome), but as my gym coach used to say: “Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile.”

I’ve been around long enough that my head knows what’s coming, even if my heart refuses to accept that. As I slide into that preposterous vat of optimism that is the Baby Oil Wrestling phase of the NFL season, I’m going to share with you the lies I hear NFL fans tell themselves every pre-season.

“Wow, our offensive line looks like it’s finally got its act together!” “I’m just watching for fun this year. I promise. Now tell me where you hid my hammer and knives.” “I don’t know, guys, I think (insert coach name here) is going to turn this around this season.” “12-4, Super Bowl.” “I know we lost (insert Pro Bowl player here) and (insert former starter here) and (insert young player that is absolutely going to be a star, but your team couldn’t afford him), but I think their backups are going to step right in and be just as good! “The Law of Averages says we have to have a winning season. That’s just science, fools.” “This is my quarterback’s year. You watch — few interceptions, few mistakes, and he’ll never try to force a pass or make bad decisions that turn the ball over, because he’s smarter than that. He is, goddamit.” “If we have a winning record, I’ll be happy, that’s all I want!” “I will not be overly optimistic, I will not be overly optimistic, I will not be overly optimistic … “ “I will not scream at the TV this year so intently that i tear vocal cords and splatter spittle on the bar top like an Orangutang flinging poo.”

How about you? Any team-specific lies you find yourself not only saying, but believing, year after year? Tell me in the comments. You too, winning teams, I’m sure you tell yourselves lies as well and I’ve love to read them. Good luck to your squad in every week where they do not play the Detroit Lions (who finally have their act together …).