Want even more betting news? Sign up for VSiN's free daily newsletter . Listen Live to VSiN's sports betting shows

Want even more betting news? Sign up for VSiN's free daily newsletter . Listen Live to VSiN's sports betting shows

With the All-Star break in the rearview mirror, are the Yankees and Mets poised to experience reversals of fortune for bettors trying to make a fortune at sportsbooks?

Give it some serious thought. Betting smart is often counterintuitive.

The Yankees are great, and are up 11.94 betting units this season (that would amount to $1,194 if you bet a “unit” of $100 per game at prevailing money-line odds). The Mets aren’t, having dropped 18.71 units (an $1,871 loss at a $100 unit bet per game). It’s not unrealistic the Yankees could begin losing money for bettors against inflated money lines just as the Mets turn into money makers after plugging a few leaks.

Consider…

A team priced at -200 on the money line must win 67 percent of the time to break even. The Yankees are going to be priced in that range and much higher throughout the second half of the season. Yet, to this point, they’ve won only 65 percent of their games. Can the Bronx Bombers continue to earn a profit when priced at or beyond perfection?

Though there are a few soft spots left on the schedule (20 games against Toronto and Baltimore), the remaining Yankees slate is far from a cakewalk. A dozen games remain against Boston, a rival long overdue to find playoff-caliber form. There are also home-and-home series with Oakland and Texas from the wild-card race, a road trip to AL Central juggernaut Minnesota, and a much anticipated three-game set at Chavez Ravine against the NL-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (Aug. 23-25). Little margin for error.

VSiN already has talked about the Mets’ schedule softening after the break. Twenty of their next 25 games are against teams currently with a losing record. Three of the remaining five are against San Diego, which is right at .500. The Mets couldn’t swim in the deep end through June and July. This water may be more to their liking.

The Mets can immediately improve just by taking Robinson Cano out of the No. 3 hole in the lineup. Their No. 3 hitters (mostly Cano) have a slash line this season of .230/.298/.392, according to the Baseball-reference website. The National League as a whole is .271/.345/.478. Lower that anvil or take it out of the lineup, and the team gets better.

Bullpen issues have caused headaches, but are often the easiest to fix. History has made it clear that unheralded hurlers can become decent (or great) closers given a chance. The Mets are ready to give some guys a chance. This team will make money for bettors when it learns how to protect leads.

In short, the Yankees caught oddsmakers and sharps napping in the first half of the season. Everyone’s awake now as the pinstripes are about to be challenged. The Mets are so far off the radar it will be easier for an “improved” approach to earn a profit moving forward against a manageable schedule.

Be sure you keep a close eye on day-to-day pricing out of the gate. The Yankees host Toronto for three games this weekend. The Mets can move in the right direction with three games at Miami.