Your favorite team is up 3-1, in the 8th inning, on a long Sunday afternoon. Your favorite starting pitcher has just been removed from the game due to a high pitch count, and the bullpen is unleashed to finish up the gem.

Now for fans of certain teams, this situation is the time you get up to go shower or grab a bite to eat -- you know for a prolonged 7th inning stretch. For this certain fan, they get back and the game is done, 3-1 with your favorite starter earning the win.

For other fans of certain unfortunate teams, you get up and come back and the game is 3-4 and the bases are loaded with no one out and before you know it the game is 3-7 and suddenly the TV is off.

Well the point is, in my opinion, there is nothing worse than a bad bullpen. At the same time there is nothing better than a lights out bullpen. When your favorite team, or any team, can make a 9 inning game a 7 inning game, it really takes the edge off over the course of a 162 game season and a prolonged postseason run.

A bad bullpen, just makes a 162 game season seem like a 324 game one, while the 7th, 8th and 9th innings are unbearable to watch and predictably horrible. But somehow, we still watch over and over, somehow thinking that something will change.

In other words a clutch bullpen is going to be lights out in those high leverage situations, leaving you without the slightest sweat.

But a bad bullpen in the clutch is going to predictably blow the lead most times, leaving you disappointed but unsurprised.

Well I am here to tell you that your favorite teams's bullpen may get better, or if it is already fantastic, that it may get real bad, real soon.

Or if you are lucky, your team may just have a bullpen that is performing right at its skill -- what you see may be what you get./

SOME CLUTCH AND NOT SO CLUTCH RELIEVERS

Following requirements: Min 10 IP, at least 5 IP in high leverage, no more than 20 IP in high leverage , at least 5 IP in low leverage, no more than 20 IP in low leverage , and less than 20 IP at medium leverage.

The relievers who have been the best in high-leverage situations (Top-25):

And now the relievers who have been the best in low leverage situations (Top-25):

Let us look at the relievers who have performed much better in high leverage situations as opposed to low leverage situations (Top-25):

The high negative DIFF in wOBA signifies that the given reliever has pitched better in high leverage situations in comparison to their numbers in low leverage situations.





Name IP wOBA IP wOBA DIFF Grant Balfour 12.1 0.146 9 0.412 -0.266 Travis Blackley 5.2 0.166 11.1 0.429 -0.263 Kevin Gregg 6.1 0.075 9 0.335 -0.26 Carter Capps 8 0.156 14 0.41 -0.254 Tony Watson 6 0.113 13 0.362 -0.249 Darren O'Day 9.1 0.105 11 0.32 -0.215 Drew Storen 8 0.252 11 0.467 -0.215 Seth Maness 5.1 0.204 5.2 0.419 -0.215 Brandon Kintzler 5.1 0.121 13 0.331 -0.21 Koji Uehara 8 0.131 10 0.31 -0.179 Ernesto Frieri 13.2 0.222 9 0.382 -0.16 Addison Reed 11.2 0.133 8.2 0.289 -0.156 Jason Grilli 9.1 0.126 7.1 0.279 -0.153 Glen Perkins 9 0.16 8.2 0.31 -0.15 Huston Street 6 0.273 7 0.42 -0.147 David Robertson 11.1 0.197 6 0.335 -0.138 Heath Bell 11.2 0.285 8 0.421 -0.136 Jesse Crain 12 0.149 5.2 0.272 -0.123 Josh Collmenter 8.1 0.146 19.1 0.268 -0.122 Rex Brothers 11 0.201 10 0.312 -0.111 Aroldis Chapman 12 0.171 7 0.278 -0.107 Joaquin Benoit 10 0.171 11.1 0.274 -0.103 Kenley Jansen 13 0.175 9.2 0.271 -0.096 Trevor Rosenthal 10 0.238 10.1 0.322 -0.084 Joel Peralta 7.2 0.172 9.1 0.25 -0.078

And the relievers who have fared better in low leverage situations, in comparison to their high leverage numbers (Top-25):

The high positive DIFF in wOBA signifies that the given reliever has pitched better in low leverage situations as opposed to high leverage situations.

Now we will piece this all together, so that we can get the full picture on how clutch a reliever was in contrast to his performance in all other situations.

Estimating the "Skill" of Hitting with RISP I used similar methods here to estimate the best hitting teams thus far with runners in scoring postion.

Estimating "Clutch Skill" of Relievers

Like we found in the article above, we will use this formula to estimate the uncertainty of the wOBA total for each reliever:

σX=√(wOBA(1.1-wOBA)/(N)) -- via The Book

Then we use the weighted average between the high leverage wOBA and the low leverage-medium leverage wOBA, to find the actual "Clutch Skill" of these relievers.

For instance lets, walk through Rex Brothers together. His wOBA for high leverage is .201±.128 in 11.0 IP. For all other leverages his wOBA is 0.267±.111 in 18.2 IP. Thus, to find his skill we will find the weighted average of both wOBA totals (using the uncertainties as weights):

Rex Brother's wOBA Clutch Skill = (0.201/0.128^2+0.267/0.111^2) / (1/0.128^2+1/0.111^2) = 0.240

Keep in mind, the wOBA Clutch Skill will tell us how the reliever should pitch in the clutch by taking into account how the same player pitches in all leverages.

Now that we have that, lets check out the Top 25, in wOBA clutch skill:

Name IP_HL wOBA_HL IP(N/HL) wOBA(N/HL) SKILL Kevin Gregg 6.1 0.075 14.1 0.182 0.130 Edward Mujica 11 0.133 18.2 0.218 0.178 Jonathan Papelbon 7 0.206 17.2 0.189 0.193 Jason Grilli 9.1 0.126 20.1 0.254 0.197 Glen Perkins 9 0.16 15.2 0.245 0.206 Grant Balfour 12.1 0.146 16.1 0.284 0.207 Jesse Crain 12 0.149 17.3 0.273 0.208 Darren O'Day 9.1 0.105 22 0.311 0.209 Addison Reed 11.2 0.133 18.4 0.305 0.213 Joe Nathan 10.2 0.172 15.2 0.257 0.216 Jim Henderson 6.1 0.206 15.1 0.224 0.219 Luke Gregerson 9 0.29 22.1 0.201 0.222 Tom Wilhelmsen 9.1 0.288 19.1 0.200 0.224 Koji Uehara 8 0.131 19 0.297 0.224 Joel Peralta 7.2 0.172 23.2 0.246 0.225 Phil Coke 7 0.385 12.2 0.173 0.226 Greg Holland 8.1 0.213 15.2 0.234 0.226 Aroldis Chapman 12 0.171 18 0.285 0.229 Ryan Cook 7.2 0.244 21.4 0.227 0.231 Mark Melancon 11.2 0.223 20.2 0.237 0.232 Brandon Kintzler 5.1 0.121 22 0.288 0.236 Jeremy Affeldt 6.1 0.422 16.1 0.194 0.237 Rex Brothers 11 0.201 18.2 0.267 0.239 Sergio Romo 9.1 0.282 15.2 0.220 0.241 Kenley Jansen 13 0.175 20.3 0.304 0.241

And the 25 worst relievers in terms of clutch skill:

BULLPENS "CLUTCH SKILL"

Using the same methodology as above we will find the true "Clutch Skill" of Baseball's bullpens, thus far, descending in "Clutch Skill":

So, now let us look at the Top 5 bullpens with the best luck, meaning that so far they have a large negative differential between their skill and their wOBA in high leverage -- these teams, in theory, are due for some regression towards their skill number:

GOOD LUCK BULLPENS:

Team IP_HL wOBA_HL IP(N/HL) wOBA(N/HL) SKILL DIFF Pirates 79.1 0.221 520.4 0.306 0.292 -0.071 Royals 52.1 0.257 523.1 0.315 0.309 -0.052 Red Sox 61 0.263 555.1 0.319 0.313 -0.05 Rangers 71 0.251 534 0.305 0.298 -0.047 Mariners 68.2 0.255 544.2 0.306 0.3 -0.045

The Pirates clutch bullpen has been one of the best in the game this year, ranking first in WPA, and in high leverage situations, ranking first in wOBA against. However, their performance in all other leverages suggests that perhaps the Pirates relief pitchers are due for some regression in the clutch.

Inversely, the following bullpens have experienced "bad luck" in high leverage situations. As a result, these bullpens are characterized with a high positive differential, meaning that in the future we expect them to improve the wOBA in high leverage to mirror their overall skill:

BAD LUCK BULLPENS:

Team IP_HL wOBA_HL IP(N/HL) wOBA(N/HL) SKILL DIFF Cubs 61.1 0.358 520.2 0.295 0.301 0.057 Dodgers 75.2 0.359 509.3 0.304 0.311 0.048 Braves 52.2 0.326 542.2 0.289 0.292 0.034 Brewers 58.1 0.34 531.3 0.307 0.31 0.03 Mets 66.2 0.342 499.3 0.309 0.313 0.029

Some hope for Cubs and Dodger fans here. Despite their terrible performance in the clutch, the bullpens have been rather effective in lower leverage situations. Either way, these teams could probably see immediate improvement by forgetting both Marmol and League existed (both who are 2nd and 3rd worst in wOBA clutch skill).

Next we will look at starting pitchers who perform well under the pressure, and quantify their skill in doing so.

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All stats via Fangraphs.



