Just about a year ago we questioned the "demographic demand" thesis for why the US housing 'recovery' would become self-sustaining and lead to yet another fiscal and monetary 'nirvana'. However, while the 'household formation' meme remains front-and-center among bloviating Fed apologists; the sad facts are that not only is household formation actually still falling but, as a recent Pew Research study finds, a record 21 million young adults are now living at home with their parents.

Since 2007, young adults have grown increasingly likely to live at home. This is a new trend with a stunning 45-year high 36% (21 million) of 18-31 year-olds back with mom-and-pop. By way of corollary, with one-third of all Italian adults living at home (and 61% of young-adults), it would seem arguing that a housing renaissance in the US is around the corner on the basis of demographics is risible at best.

Household formation is falling among the young adults (a new trend)...

as 18-31 year olds continue to be forced to move back in with their parents...

But as we warned 10 months ago, there is massively more room for this to increase...

In Italy a third of young adults live with their parents. In the US "only" 22%. The "demographic demand" argument for housing is very weak — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 19, 2012

as we see in Italy, it can get considerably worse...

According to a report published on Wednesday, almost a third of Italian adults (31%) live with their parents. The highest proportion was among 18- to 29-year-olds, for whom unemployment is particularly high, with 60.7% reported living at home.

So with mortgage rates up, household formation down, and the rotation from full-time to part-time jobs, we suspect the exuberance priced into a 'housing recovery'-based growth renaissance is as unlikely as Ron Paul becoming the next Fed Head.