Good morning. A day after historic flooding in Houston the radar is quiet. We also got good news last night when showers over central Texas broke mostly apart before reaching the Houston region. As we clean up today, will Mother Nature continue to cooperate?

TODAY

A flash flood watch remains in effect through Wednesday morning for the entire Houston metro area.

I think things will remain quiet this morning, but we’re still seeing moisture flow in from the Gulf of Mexico, and mechanisms remain to lift that moist air. My guess is that we’ll see development of spotty showers later this morning or early afternoon along the coast, and possibly more organized activity to the east of Houston, which is good because these areas were hit least hard on Sunday night and Monday. Some scattered showers could move inland into central and western Houston later this afternoon.

The big concern will be storms that produce rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, that would fill bayous back up quickly. However at this time I don’t think we’ll see those kinds of rains today over the western part of Harris County, Montgomery County, Waller County and other areas that were hammered. If that changes I will let you know.

WEDNESDAY

Some forecast models show a more organized system of showers and thunderstorms moving into Houston late Tuesday and on Wednesday morning. (Others do not). What concerns me about the potential for this system is that it could have fairly high precipitable water levels to work with.

That means the atmosphere will again be quite moist, and capable of producing heavy rain. In my view this probably represents the best chance of organized shower activity in the Houston region. However, there’s a lot of uncertainty but we’re going to have to watch for this to occur.

THURSDAY

Another day of potentially unsettled weather, with high moisture and enough lift in the atmosphere to cause us some problems with locally heavy rainfall.

The bottom line for the next three days is that we’ve got the right ingredients for heavy rainfall, but they’re not quite as focused as they were on Sunday night. So while we might pick up another 1 to 4 inches of rainfall, with a few areas getting more than that, I don’t think we’re going to see the kinds of explosive rains that we just experienced. I’m not ruling that out, and we’ll be watching for that, but I don’t want to alarm anyone either.

FRIDAY

A cool front arrives Friday to bring us some sunshine for most of the weekend, an end to the rain, and slightly cooler nights.

Posted at 6:45am CT Tuesday