Want to keep up to date on Welsh politics? Sign up and get political news sent straight to your inbox Thank you for subscribing We have more newsletters Show me See our privacy notice Invalid Email

A Welsh opinion poll on the eve of the General Election shows Labour still well out in front, the Tories second, with Plaid and Ukip level pegging for third.

The Welsh Governance Centre poll, in conjunction with ITV Wales, shows Labour steady at 39%, Conservatives down 1% at 25%, Plaid and Ukip steady at 13% and 12% respectively.

The Lib Dems are on 8%, up by 2%, while the Greens are on 2%, down from 3%.

Professor Roger Scully, of the Cardiff University centre, said: “This final poll suggests the campaign has had only a limited impact in terms of changing the mind of the Welsh voters.”

'Labour in good shape'

He said that Labour’s support has been stable throughout the campaign, a few points above their performance in 2010.

“This suggests that Labour should be in good shape to hold most, if not all, of the seats that they won in 2010.

“However, they may gain fewer seats in Wales than they would need in order to be on course for a parliamentary majority in the Commons,” he said.

Related:

Tory support “remains robust”, added Prof Scully, “something that should help the Tories retain the vast majority of the seats that they won in Wales in 2010,” he explained.

But the Liberal Democrats and Plaid have made some progress, Prof Scully said.

'Hanging on'

“While their overall support remains well below half of the level they won five years ago, they are up three points on the start of the campaign,” he said of the Liberal Democrats.

“If this rise in support is concentrated in their existing seats, the Lib Dems may well have a chance of hanging on to all three of them.”

He said Plaid had made “some modest progress”.

“This is the second successive poll that has placed them – narrowly – ahead of UKIP in third place, and they are up four points on their low-point in a poll early in the campaign,” he said.

Related:

“Nonetheless, on uniform swings Plaid would still be struggling to add to its current three seats.”

“The poll adds further evidence that UKIP’s support is now several points below its high-point last autumn”, he added

'Only Labour can stope the Tories'

The last poll was conducted at the end of April, while this poll was conducted on May 4-6.

A Welsh Labour spokesman said: “With Labour support rising well above the level it was at the last election, this poll shows clearly that only Labour can stop the Tories.”

Related:

Aled Roberts, Chair of the Lib Dem General Election Campaign, said: “This poll shows that we have real momentum building behind our campaign.

“In our key seats we are getting our message across loudly and proudly.