The recent poll tallies for Brown/Whitman are:

SurveyUSA 10/21-25: 46% Brown (D), 38% Whitman (R) MOE=4.1%

Link to poll release here PPP 10/23: 53% Brown (D), 42% Whitman (R) MOE=3.92%

Poll release here Suffolk Univ. 10/21-24: 50% Brown (D), 42% Whitman (R) MOE 4%

Poll release here FOX (Pulse Opinion Research) 10/25: 50% Brown (D), 41% Whitman (R) MOE 3%

Link to poll data here

I have a feeling that Brown's one-two punch of simple but direct ads may have been the coup de grâce against Whitman's atypical "tax and spend Democrat" attacks. The "Mirror" ad had her doing some synchronized swimming with Schwarzenegger, illustrating Whitman as another shrewd Republican businessperson running in a state that's gotten screwed by shrewd Republican fatcats. The whole undocumented maid dustup was a credibility issue for Whitman, mainly because of her shifting stance on immigration.

When Whitman does a post-mortem on her campaign, she will most likely realize, if she hasn't already, that pouring one's personal fortune into a race and pandering to certain groups (police/fire, Latinos, women, etc.) isn't a surefire path towards getting elected. Meg bet the farm that overexposure and financial advantage would be the key to a win. Unfortunately, she underestimated both her opponent and the savviness of California voters. And when that opponent spends about a tenth in campaign funds and can get a strong message out using one's own words, you know you're in trouble. So unless Brown slips on one fatal banana peel, or unless the polling data is grossly flawed, this race is now most definitely his to lose.

As for Carly Fiorina, her path to failure is one that has its share of precendents, from her maligned tenure as the CEO of HP to her gaffes as a one-time spokesperson for the McCain/Palin campaign in 2008. Some have looked at her recent hospitalization as a publicity ploy to gain sympathy votes in a tight race, but that is, of course, inconclusive. Carly's misstep (one in a series of many in her professional career) was her tea party/Sarah Palin outreach, a faction with little to no clout in this state as far as major elections are concerned.

For Boxer/Fiorina:

SurveyUSA 10/21-25: 45% Boxer (D), 40% Fiorina (R) MOE=4.1%

Link to poll release here PPP 10/23: 52% Boxer (D), 43% Fiorina (R) MOE=3.92%

Link to poll data here Suffolk Univ. 10/21-24: 52% Boxer (D), 43% Fiorina (R) MOE=4%

Link to poll release here FOX News 10/23 (Pulse): 48% Boxer (D), 44% Fiorina (R) MOE=3%

Link to poll data here

Both Republican candidates bet on the whole "throw the bums out" meme to get ahead, but after eight years of a stonewalling Republican legislature and Gov. Schwarzenegger, voters knew better. The "career politician as boogeyman/woman" tactic was also a recurring theme, but that clearly didn't resonate with a majority of the electorate.

Nate sums it all up thusly:

At this point — especially with Mr. Brown having at least 50 percent of the vote in several of the surveys — Ms. Whitman’s chances probably rely on there being systematic errors in the polling, rather than her being able to do anything in particular in her last week on the campaign trail to narrow her deficit. There’s an argument, however — which also has implications for Carly Fiorina, the Republican Senate candidate — that some of the polls suggest a heavier Democratic turnout than it is realistic to expect in this political environment.

And that points to the bigger picture. GOP candidates rely on big money and dominance on the airwaves, while Democrats push to get out the vote. So there should be no question whatsoever on who is using the winning tactic.

Looks like 11/2/10 will be a really good day for Californians.