It’s been a chaotic first four episodes in Survivor: David vs. Goliath, and this episode may have topped them all. Last week, we saw the Goliaths attend their first tribal council, and loose cannon Jeremy somehow managed to turn a 9-1 vote against Natalie into a 9-1 vote against him. However, that wasn’t the most significant event to come out of last week’s episode.

That turned out to be Bi Nguyen’s injured knee, which came into play again only minutes into episode four. As the two tribes gathered in front of Jeff Probst, Bi stepped forward and announced that due to her knee injury and the fact that she’s an athlete, she would be withdrawing the game. And just like that, Survivor: David vs. Goliath was down to 16 – just in time for a tribe swap. After a hasty buff draw, we had three new tribes of five – and Carl. The truck driver was unlucky #16, left without a tribe and headed for exile island.

Of course, as we know on Survivor, Exile Island can be a blessing in disguise. Instead of battling to survive in a new tribe dynamic, Carl was sent to an island with an advantage waiting for him. After a daring search through crashing waves for a marked coconut, Carl claimed the advantage – but it wasn’t an idol. It was a new Idol Nullifier, which can be played on a specific player at any tribal council to nullify any idols played on them. It’s a new wrinkle in the increasingly idol-heavy game – but it starts to feel a bit too much like a rock-paper-scissors battle of advantages.

But at least Carl wasn’t a David tribe member on a new tribe, as Survivor history repeated itself from Ghost Island – all three new tribes wound up with the Davids (who had seven members to the Goliaths’ nine after Bi’s departure) wound up in the minority on all three tribes, 3-2. Despite this uniformity, all three tribes had very different dynamics.

Tiva (Green) – John, Christian, Gabby, Alison, Dan

This team was almost frighteningly functional from minute one. John quickly stepped into a role as a charismatic but laid-back tribal leader, while Christian befriended him. It was Gabby, though, who found herself on the outs – and the insecure young woman’s paranoid streak came back in full force. If she wasn’t target #1, her isolating herself likely made her so.

Vuku (Orange) – Davie, Alec, Natalia, Kara, Elizabeth

This tribe was divided from the get-go. Natalia, Kara, and Alec were all young Goliaths who got along, and seemed to be like an unbreakable alliance. But cracks started emerging almost immediately, as Kara befriended Elizabeth based on their mutual country upbringing, and Natalia became almost ridiculously paranoid and determined to get Elizabeth out.

Jabeni (Purple) – Natalie, Nick, Mike, Angelina, Lyrsa

With two of the biggest characters of the game on the tribe in Nick and Natalie, it’s no surprise the gaming started fast and hard. Nick wasted no time forming a bond with Mike, even giving their alliance a half-assed new name. Mike was non-committal, but the best thing working in the Davids’ favor was, once again, Natalie. She went right back to her old habits of arrogantly ordering everyone around, and potentially set herself up for a fall.

Then came the three new tribes’ first test, as they faced off in an immunity challenge. With Gabby, Angelina, and Kara as callers, the blindfolded tribe members carried their callers through an obstacle course, followed by competing in a ball puzzle – while still blindfolded! After a rocky start on her new tribe, Gabby quickly found redemption by leading her tribe to victory and a massive pastry reward. Then it came down to Kara and Angelina battling for second place and immunity, with only seconds separating them. In the end, it was Angelina who pulled it off for Jabeni, sending Vuku to tribal council.

From there, all hell broke loose. Paranoia consumed the Vuku tribe almost immediately. With the Goliaths looking unbreakable, Elizabeth went looking for an idol. Davie, who has the idol, had no intention of playing it to save her and instead proceeded to throw her under the bus as hard as possible to the Goliaths. Natalie continued to push Elizabeth as the boot, shutting down all talk of Davie and attempting to intimidate her tribe into voting her out. That’s a pretty big Survivor no-no. Sure enough, she seemed to alienate Alec, and Davie took full advantage of those cracks.

At tribal council, those cracks broke wide open and resulted in a wild last-second scheming and whispering session. In the end, none of the Goliaths voted together. Natalia voted for Elizabeth, Kara voted for Davie – and Alec voted with the Davids to make Natalia the fifth person to leave Survivor: David vs. Goliath. After a tense stand-off and shout-off between Natalia and Alec – the nastiest post-Tribal Council face-off since Michaela was voted out in Survivor: Millennials vs. Gen X – Carl left with the Vuku tribe and the game began once again.

Now, I’ll look at the dynamics on these new five-person tribes and rank the contestants on each from safest to most vulnerable in episode five.

Tiva:

1. John

The Mayor of Slamtown is in a leadership position, and hasn’t been ruffling any feathers with his style. With two Goliath members on his side and a David quickly earning his trust, he’s in no danger.

2. Dan

Not only does he have an alliance protecting him, but he has an idol in his pocket. He should have little trouble making the merge.

3. Alison

The young doctor has been playing a low-key game so far, and there’s no real reason for any of her tribe to turn on her.

4. Christian

Out of the two Davids, he’s made the better effort to ingratiate himself to the Goliaths. John will likely want to keep him around for at least one tribal council, and it’s hard to see why his tribe would disagree.

5. Gabby

Gabby redeemed herself with her challenge performance today, but she’s still the tribe’s most notable social outcast. She should be an easy boot if they go to tribal council – but the tribe is so stacked she may coast to the merge.

Jabeni:

1. Angelina

On a tribe with the two most unpredictable Goliaths and two Davids, she’s sitting pretty as the de facto leader. She could wind up on the wrong side of a vote, but no way is she the target.

2. Nick

The most aggressive player in the game, Nick found himself in the minority but wasted no time trying to find his way out. His attempt to make a new alliance with Mike might not save his tribe, but it’s likely to save his own hide for at least one tribal council.

3. Mike

Mike’s found himself as the likely swing vote for the first Jabeni tribal council, but that’s a double-edged sword. He already has a reputation as squirrelly due to his idol hunt in the first episode, and if he hedges too much, the vote could turn around on him.

4. Natalie

Oh, Natalie. After last episode, I thought we might be headed for a redemption arc for her. This episode, she was right back to her old ways and seemed to be turning her own tribe against her. She could easily become a consensus boot.

5. Lyrsa

Although Natalie is the bigger target, the smart strategic move for the Goliaths would be to pick off a David first. Lyrsa has basically been irrelevant since her close call in episode two, which means her time in this game will likely be coming to a close soon.

Vuku:

1. Davie

Davie pulled off one of the biggest upsets in recent Survivor memory this episode, and now he’s basically running his tribe. With an idol in his pocket and an overall good reputation in the game, Davie will be around come the merge.

2. Elizabeth

Despite Davie throwing her under the bus this episode, Elizabeth now only has allies in the Davids, she’s close with the one remaining Goliath, Kara. It’s hard to see how she goes home next time.

3. Carl

Carl is a newcomer to the tribe dynamic, which is always a tricky place to be. But with two natural allies and an advantage in his pocket, he’ll have to work pretty hard to screw this up.

4. Kara

Now in the minority and coming off a nasty blindside, Kara is in a very bad position. The good news is, she’s not perceived as a threat and could sneak by for a while.

5. Alec

There’s one cardinal rule in Survivor, and that’s that traitors are rarely rewarded – especially if they betray their tribe without thinking through the implications. Alec is now in the minority, with an ally who no longer trusts him, and is the bigger threat of the two Davids. He’s all but done if Vuku loses again.