This work was supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) including the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led the development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. The analysis in Figure 1 was inspired by work completed as part of the Australian Academy of Science Climate Change Q&A Report, led by the late Professor Michael Raupach. It is to his memory that this paper is dedicated.