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Donald J. Trump remains, as of the publication of this story, President of the United States of America. By all accounts he enjoys television, well-done steaks, and undermining the collective social, political, and economic structures that have developed over the past two-hundred and forty some-odd years. The President is viewed by some as a savior, by others as a tool towards ends more noble than his means, and by a majority as an embarrassing, if not cataclysmic, agent of chaos and regression. The one thing that all (most?) can agree on is that, one day, he will be referred to as Former President Donald J. Trump.

But in what manner will this divisive and famously unpredictable President achieve this categorical transformation? While I will leave it to others to ruminate on the Kobayashi Maru scenario of an assassination or the morbid predictions stemming from health outcomes common to 70-year old men with diets rich in meat and stress, there remain a number of potential routes by which President Trump might find himself hitching his last ride to Mara Lago as the leader of the free world.

Eight Glory-Filled Years

President Trump might repeat the (historically unusual) success of the last three presidents by winning reelection in 2020 and eventually retiring after having served two full and impactful terms. Schools and parks would be named after him to honor his grand achievements, and the name “Donald” (plus whatever its female equivalent is) would become resurgent as proud parents seek to associate their infants with the President’s steadfast opposition to anything that discourages his own sense of self-worth.

This scenario is curiously absent in most discussions of President Trump’s potential legacy.

Four and Done

A scenario first posed to me by a scholar at a prominent local-area think tank would have President Trump simply decline to run for a second term. While his competitive spirit and bonsai-like cultivation of his easily-bruised psyche would suggest Mr. Trump would be loath to turn down an opportunity to fully cement his historical importance, that same ego-protection algorithm would, according to this theory, prompt the President to want to avoid an embarrassing loss.

Losing to Hillary Clinton, as Mr. Trump likely expected would happen in November of 2016, would hardly have been problematic for the carefully constructed Trump ego-system – he was the long-shot candidate facing an entrenched “Washington insider” and a system “rigged” against him. His messaging towards the end of the campaign (and indeed throughout much of the primaries) was organized precisely to leverage his position as the outsider who came close but was defeated by the elite interests in Washington. This would have positioned him well as a profitable thorn in the side of both parties as he evolved his brand into the vanguard of a white nationalist media empire.

However, losing the Presidency in 2020 after he had every opportunity to fulfill his campaign promises to radically reform and re-engineer the political dynamics of Washington would be much more difficult to twist into an ego-mollifying success. While 2016 proved that we should be wary of making predictions, the base which provides him with a steady-stream of adulation remains insufficient to win a campaign sans external assistance in the form of an unpopular opponent, help from a long-time U.S. antagonist, and quirks of an antiquated electoral system that will not be so easily overlooked next time around. The reelection of President Trump is by no means impossible, but history suggests the challenge he would face after four years would be significant. As such, Mr. Trump could simply declare “mission accomplished!” and wash his hands of the whole mess, having successfully (and permanently) added his face to the border of collectable dinnerware for the remaining tenure of the Union.

Impeachment, Conviction, and Removal from Office

Given the increasingly convincing (and alarming) evidence of collusion between staff at the highest levels of the Trump campaign and Russian intelligence, there has been serious discussion that the President will be removed from office by impeachment in the House and conviction by the Senate. This is clearly a dream scenario for many liberals (and likely many conservatives as well) – but history and political reality suggest that the removal of President Trump via this often discussed but little-used constitutional mechanism is unlikely.

Only two Presidents have ever been impeached by the House of Representatives – Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton. The Johnson case is complex, but in short he ran afoul of radical members of his own party who advocated for a more aggressive approach to reintegrating the Southern states after the Civil War. Clinton’s impeachment has been characterized by many as strategic overreach by the Republican majority in the House who sought to leverage the President’s lewd indiscretions into a victory over the man who had managed so often to outmaneuver his opposition on both ends of the political spectrum. Neither Johnson nor Clinton were convicted by the Senate.

The one President who very likely might have been removed via the process of impeachment and conviction was Richard Nixon. President Nixon, being politically astute enough to know when he had been beaten, avoided that fate by resigning. However, as Watergate reporter Elizabeth Drew recently noted on The Ezra Klein Show, Republicans in Congress at the time resisted calls for impeachment until the amount of evidence and the toxic relationship between Nixon and the public grew to the point where their own political careers would have been imperiled had they not advanced impeachment proceedings. Drew suggests that that threshold may not be as easily met in today’s climate, given the combination of hyperpartisanship and gerrymandered districts.

I would add that, unlike Nixon, the threat of impeachment would in all likelihood prompt Trump to stay and fight, rather than resign. Nixon, despite his mercurial and paranoid personality, was a man who by many accounts desired to do right by the country. His resignation saved him some small amount of shame, but also prevented the United States from the public and divisive spectacle that impeachment would have caused (as the country would later experience – and may in fact still be experiencing – as a result of the Clinton impeachment). Donald Trump has shown little evidence of truly caring for anything other than his own interests, as well as a capacity for defining his legacy in his own imagination free of the pesky constraints of reality. I suspect if Donald Trump were impeached or even convicted and removed from office he would simply declare “Fake history!” and formulate a more salutary legacy supported by sycophants and carefully groomed in his mind for the remainder of his days.

Triumphant Resignation

Given what we know about President Trump’s personality and personal inclinations, the most sensible strategy for him exit office in my view would be to simply declare he has achieved the goal of “making America great again” and resign in triumph. As noted above, the President is adept at twisting his own perception of reality to suit the demands of his ego, and equally adept at influencing his most ardent followers into performing the same mental contortions. Moreover, the job of President is difficult on its best days, and no amount of golf or fine dining while on the job can block out the endless litany of duties (mundane and otherwise) that every President simply has to deal with. Trump enjoys power, but he also dislikes constraints. By stating that he has secured his legacy “faster than any President in history!” he can simultaneously be free of the responsibility of office, market himself as the most effective President ever (so much so that he needn’t complete a full term), and then spend the rest of his days mocking his successors for their failure to succeed as he did. Unlike Nixon, neither reality nor the good of the nation will bear significant influence on President Trump’s decision-making process.

Granted, this scenario is predicated on there being a lull in the thus-far constant stream of self-inflicted calamities that have been the hallmark of the Trump administration’s first few months in office. President Trump is adept at shaping a uniquely self-serving internal worldview, but he also abhors looking like a “loser.” As such, he would avoid resigning unless and until he believes that the resignation would not be seen as capitulation to his political enemies (which grow in number each day). He also would likely leverage the timing of his resignation to the fullest effect – if I had to guess, he would aim for a date after January 20th, 2019 so as to limit President Pence’s own legacy to a maximum potential of 6 years.

All of this is, of course, mere speculation. The primary lesson taught by Donald Trump to the world is that one can never be sure what to expect. But it may very well be the case that the quickest way to be rid of President Trump is to convince him, for a moment, that’s he’s done what he came to Washington to do and would be happier to be free of the burden of governing (or whatever term would more appropriately describe Mr. Trump’s activities as President so far).

Though I strain my ears to listen, I do not hear the drumbeat of Trump opponents pursuing this particular strategy. Maybe he’ll make it the full eight years after all!