Article by Andrew Beasley

@BassTunedToRed

Statistics correct as at 24thApril 2018.

In my previous article for RedmenTV, I wrote about how Liverpool have been racking up clear-cut chances this season like never before. The rate per match has cooled a little since then, but against West Brom the Reds became only the tenth team in the past seven seasons to record 100 of these Opta-defined golden opportunities in a Premier League campaign.

Liverpool also had two in each leg of their Champions League quarter-final, converting all four to knock out Manchester City. The only issue with monitoring this statistic is that it is subjective. You might think an opportunity is a clear-cut chance, but if Opta don’t then it won’t be recorded as one.

There’s no such problem with shots on target. A shot is either destined to go within the frame of the goal, or it isn’t. As Liverpool are also doing well on this front in 2017/18, I thought it was worth taking a closer look at this too.

The first article I ever wrote about Jürgen Klopp, which was for The Tomkins Times, highlighted how good his Dortmund side were with shots on target at both ends of the pitch, and there’s no doubt he has transferred that attribute to his Liverpool team.

We can combine the figures from the defence and attack to create a team’s shots on target ratio (SoTR). If Team A has seven shots on target and Team B have three, their Shots on Target ratios are 70% and 30% respectively.

It’s meaningless for a single game, but across a whole season it has similar predictive powers to complex expected goal models. Teams tend to finish in the league table in roughly the order of their SoTRs too, so unless you can pull off a 5000/1 Leicester City style title win, a good ratio is essential for success.

The good news for Kopites is Liverpool have been performing at a very high level for the last two seasons. Here are their league figures for the past decade.

You can see in the table that Jürgen’s Reds have posted the best figures since Rafa Benitez steered his side to a second place finish and an 86 point haul. Considering the reputation of that team’s defence, it’s a feather in the cap of the current back line to have posted similar figures for shots on target conceded.

And before we rush to praise Virgil van Dijk, as usually happens whenever the topic of the Reds’ improved defence is raised, the rate per match is virtually identical this season whether he has played or not. Of course, we may see further improvement next season when he is involved for the whole campaign.

The current crop may not amass as many shots on target going forward as the title challengers of 2013/14, but by having a stronger balance between attack and defence they stand a better chance of sustained success.

While the figures posted by the league champions have ranged from 56% (Leicester) to 76% (Manchester City this season at the time of writing), the average over the past decade has been 66%, so you can see Klopp’s team are in the right ballpark.

The figure looks like improving further too. For the 38 league games up-to-and-including the recent 3-0 home win over Bournemouth, Liverpool had taken 70.3% of the shots on target in their matches. Apart from Manchester City this season and Chelsea in 2009/10, no team in the Premier League has bettered that over the past nine years.

Of course, some teams may have had better 38 game runs themselves, but it certainly illustrates the elite level Liverpool are performing at when it comes to balancing defence and attack.

It won’t surprise you to learn a lot of the success of this season’s attack has been thanks to Mohamed Salah. The newly crowned PFA player of the year has been one of the most accurate shooters in Europe’s big five leagues this season, and he’s even been a shade better in the Champions League.

Here’s a table of the 10 Liverpool players who’ve had at least 120 shots in total in the league since the summer of 2011. When sorted for shooting accuracy, the Egyptian king leads the way.

Luis Suárez is the only player to have had more shots on target in a single season than Salah has in 2017/18, but he was less accurate and relied in part upon a remarkable shot volume.

The great figures this season aren’t purely down to Salah either. Roberto Firmino’s shot accuracy has improved with each year he has been at Liverpool, and while Sadio Mané has seen a dip since his debut season, he’s still been above league average.

Although it’s early days for him at Anfield, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain deserves a quick mention here too. He had his best season for Arsenal on this front last year, and his kicked on again this term to the point that his shooting has been more accurate than Coutinho’s was in any of the six seasons he played for Liverpool.

Of course, these statistics are strongly linked to the clear-cut chance figures from the previous article. As they are shots where there is little or no defensive pressure, then they are easier to put on target.

The distance from goal is obviously relevant too. Euan Dewar has written for StatsBomb on how shot locations have improved across the board in recent years, and that can be seen in Liverpool’s numbers too.

In 2017/18, 7.7% of the Reds shots have been in the opposition six yard box, and 14.1% of their shots on target have been taken in the same zone. Both of these proportions are club highs for the past seven seasons.

As with any stat, a good shots on target ratio can’t guarantee success. Nothing can, not even endless supplies of money. But a great SoTR can certainly provide a very solid foundation, and Jürgen’s Klopp team are built on one of the sturdiest bedrocks the Premier League has seen. Let’s hope they can take this further and challenge for the title in 2018/19.

Article by Andrew Beasley

@BassTunedToRed

For more Redmen TV content including podcasts, subscriber exclusives and three new shows every week subscribe now and get your first month for FREE bit.ly/RMTVjoin