Back in mid-May, I looked at the biggest movers in terms of called strikes plus swinging strikes (CSW%) from 2018 to 2019. Now that we are past the mid-way point of the 2019 season, pitchers have larger samples. Larger samples are always better because there is less variance. A lower variance means less regression one way or the other. We can start really trusting the numbers we have seen from the pitchers below. The CSW% metrics developed by Pitcher List has shown to be more effective than using just swinging strike rate (SwStr%) in terms of a pitcher’s success and strikeout rate. Below is the updated table as of the All-Star break. A positive delta is an increase in CSW% this year compared to 2018 and a negative delta is a decrease of CSW%. All of the starting pitchers have at least 650 pitches in either season.



Pitchers - Largest CSW% Changes 2019-2018

player_name Team Delta (2019 CSW-2018CSW%) David Hernandez CIN 7 Lucas Giolito CHW 6.3 Ariel Jurado TEX 6 Amir Garrett CIN 5.8 Luke Jackson ATL 5.4 Wander Suero WAS 5 Emilio Pagan TB 4.9 Jake Diekman KC 4.9 Matthew Boyd DET 4.5 Roenis Elias SEA 4.4 Frankie Montas OAK 4 Drew Pomeranz SF 3.9 Lance Lynn TEX 3.6 Jake Odorizzi MIN 3.6 Caleb Smith MIA 3.5 Tyler Glasnow TB 3.4 Martin Perez MIN 3.4 Felipe Vazquez PIT 3.3 Scott Oberg COL 3.2 Noe Ramirez LAA 3.1 Tyler Mahle CIN 2.9 Kyle Gibson MIN 2.8 Kirby Yates SD 2.7 Mike Minor TEX 2.6 Kenley Jansen LAD 2.5 David Price BOS 2.4 Blake Snell TB 2.2 Derek Holland SF 2.2 Luke Weaver ARI 2.2 Matt Barnes BOS 2.2 Jeff Samardzija SF 2.2 Stephen Strasburg WAS 2.1 Trevor Williams PIT 1.9 Sonny Gray CIN 1.8 Homer Bailey KC 1.7 Jalen Beeks TB 1.7 Cole Hamels CHC 1.6 Noah Syndergaard NYM 1.6 Brad Hand CLE 1.5 Charlie Morton TB 1.4 Luis Castillo CIN 1.4 Shane Bieber CLE 1.4 Trevor Bauer CLE -1.6 German Marquez COL -1.7 Jon Gray COL -1.8 Masahiro Tanaka NYY -1.8 Matt Strahm SD -1.9 James Paxton NYY -2 Zack Greinke ARI -2.2 Jhoulys Chacin MIL -2.2 Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD -2.2 J.A. Happ NYY -2.2 Collin McHugh HOU -2.3 Michael Wacha STL -2.3 Rick Porcello BOS -2.4 Sandy Alcantara MIA -2.4 Carlos Carrasco CLE -2.5 Dereck Rodriguez SF -2.6 Zach Davies MIL -2.6 Jason Vargas NYM -2.7 Vince Velasquez PHI -2.7 Patrick Corbin WAS -2.8 Julio Teheran ATL -3.1 Mike Foltynewicz ATL -3.1 Jacob deGrom NYM -3.3 Zack Godley ARI -3.4 Brad Peacock HOU -3.4 Reyes Moronta SF -3.6 Nick Pivetta PHI -3.7 Edwin Diaz NYM -3.8 Zack Britton NYY -3.8 Max Fried ATL -3.9 Dan Straily BAL -4 Hector Rondon HOU -5.4 Jeremy Jeffress MIL -6.2 Blake Treinen OAK -6.4 Sean Doolittle WAS -7.3

Risers

The complete table and Goolge sheet can be found here. League-average CSW% is 28.6%. I have included some relievers to this list that provide some interest for the second half. Notice the number of Cincinnati Reds on the list of CSW% improvers. That’s a credit to the new Pitching Coach Derrek Johnson. If Raisel Iglesias continues to struggle, I could very easily see David Hernandez (34.8%) or Amir Garrett (35.3%) fill in given their elite CSW rates. I realize Hernandez hasn’t been great this year but a .380 BABIP and a crazy-low 56.6% strand rate are to blame. Garrett has the elite velocity we look for but throws from the left side. Iglesias is still the closer but if he loses his job, a committee could be formed in Cincinnati where both Garrett and Hernandez should be owned.

You’ll notice from the Google Sheet that the elite closers have CSW% that is typically north of 32-33% ala Felipe Vazquez (33.7%), Kirby Yates (33.8%), and Brad Hand (37.4%). Kenly Jansen has surprisingly shown up on the CSW improvers list sitting at a 33% CSW rate. He was bad last year so it’s nice to see this improvement. I think he’ll be just fine going forward and will be a top 8-10 closer this year. This brings me to Brandon Workman, Emilio Pagan, Jake Diekman, and Noe Ramirez. All have improved their CSW rates this year and could be potential closers before the 2019 season is over. In deep leagues, I’d grab them because, at a minimum, they should provide solid strikeout numbers with a vulture save or two.

Now to the starters. No surprise here, Lucas Giolito still tops the list and he’s actually improved since the mid-May article! His boost in strikeout rate is for real but as I mentioned two months ago, his control and command could cause some issues. We’ve seen this come to fruition as Giolito has struggled with walks in his last five outings. He’s struggled to find the zone and get ahead of hitters consistently. I’m a believer in his improved strikeout rate but think he’s more of a 3.50-3.75 ERA pitcher going forward this year. Given the rise in home runs and ERA across the board, he’s still a top 25 starter even as regression sets in.



Matt Boyd is back near the top of the list in terms of starting pitchers. He was essentially league-average in 2018 and now he’s among the elite starters. The metric that’s most impressive to me is the fact that he improved K-BB rate by 12.3% from 2018 (15.2% to 27.5%)! Yup. His K-BB rate is higher than his strikeout rate from last season. Improvements of that significant typically yield better results than an improvement of just 0.50 on his ERA. The rise in home run rate is partially to blame but so is an elevated BABIP. Given the fact that Boyd allows fly balls over over a 40% clip, I’d expect Boyd to lower his ERA in the second half. I’m buying this breakout. He’s a possible trade candidate, so hopefully he ends up in a better situation if that happens.

Remember how I discussed the Reds bullpen, well, they also have a bunch of starters in the improvers list including Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Luis Castillo. All of these Reds starters have CSW% well over league-average. In fact, both Castillo and Mahle are just over 31% and Gray at 30.9%. The new pitching coach, Derek Johnson has done wonders for that staff. Unfortunately, their home park is brutal for home runs. However, each of these three starters have increased their ground ball rates by at least four percent to counteract the Park and elevated home run rates. Castillo is a top 12 SP going forward while Gray settles just inside the top 30 and Mahle around 50.

Speaking of teams with three starters on the plus list, we have the Twins and Rangers. To be fair, Ariel Jurado is only in this list because his CSW% was a paltry 21% in 2018. So his current 27% CSW% is still below average. I’m not buying. I’m not as impressed with Martin Perez as he sits about one percent below-average in 2019. However, I am impressed by the rejuvenated veterans in Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Jake Odorizzi. Among these four I actually like Lynn and Gibson the most out of this group. I think both Minor and Odorizzi are a due pretty steep correction in their numbers.



For Jake Odorizzi, he’s giving up a ton of fly balls. At an over 50% fly ball rate, he’s been fortunate to have a home run per fly ball rate of just 8.9%. In 2017, the last time the balls were juiced, his HR/FB rate was 15.5%. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) is .411 compared to an actual .335 SLG. He’s averaging 93.0 MPH on batted balls between the launch angles of 20 and 39 degrees compared the league-average rate of 91.3 MPH. Best case scenario, he might carry a league-average 15% HR/FB rate going forward. For Minor, he’s been great in terms of limiting fly ball exit velocities at just 88 MPH. However, his strand rate is at 86.5% which is over 11% higher than his career rate. With a 15.5% K-BB rate, he’s due some negative regression. To be clear, both of these guys have improved from previous years, but are not sub-3.50 ERA type pitchers.

Decliners

Starting with the relievers, I had no idea Sean Doolittle was struggling that much in his CSW rate. He’s currently at 24.8% CSW%, so I’m extremely concerned. His walks have doubled from last year and his strikeout rate is down 10%. He’s not in danger of losing his job but I would not look to acquire him as a top 10 closer going forward. Blake Treinen is out as the Athletics’ closer and his dip in CSW rate is a huge reason why. He’s below league-average at 27.8%, and I don’t expect him to get his job back. It’s amazing how fickle closers are. He was a consensus top three closer coming into this season and is essentially devoid of value at the All-Star break. Jeremy Jeffress and Hector Rondon were considered options as potential closers as recently as last season. Both have been respectable but are pitching over their heads thus far. I can’t see either having any value going forward. As much as I like Reyes Moranta for the Giants, given his youth and decrease in CSW%, I don’t believe he becomes the closer when Will Smith is dealt. I think it will be either Sam Dyson or Mark Melancon, whomever remains after the deadline.

Now to the starting pitchers. Try not to freak out about seeing Jacob deGrom at -3.3%. His 2018 Cy Young season was not likely repeatable. He was able to dominate with a very good but not elite 32.7% CSW%. He is a great pitcher and his strikeout rate is only 1.5% lower than it was last season. He’s going to be fine and a top five SP ROS. For Patrick Corbin, he’s still sitting at a very solid 30.2% CSW% and the only difference is he isn’t getting as many swings outside the zone. That just means his walk rate has gone up a tick and his strikeout rate is down a bit. I’m also not budging on Corbin as a top 15 SP going forward.

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Here are some pitchers I will not be buying back into fo the second half. Nick Pivetta, Mike Foltynewicz, Rick Porcello, JA Happ, and Michael Wacha to name a few. All of these pitchers had at least a small amount of varying success last season with above-average to average CSW rates. This year, all have dipped to below the league-average CSW rate. I was definitely off of Michael Wacha, and Rick Porcello coming into the season but was completely wrong about Folty and Pivetta this year. You win some, you lose some, but you’ve got to know when to jump off the train.



I’ve discussed my concerns with Masahiro Tanaka in my most recent FantasyPros article here.

I wanted to say how impressive it has been for Carlos Carrasco to maintain a 31.1% CSW rate even after being diagnosed with Leukemia. I’ve enjoyed watching him pitch for half-a-decade now and wish him all the best. Get well soon Cookie!.