If Bernie Sanders fails to win the California primary next Tuesday, he should immediately end his long-shot campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, even before the voting concludes the following week in the District of Columbia.

That’s according to Democratic members of The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 10 key battleground states — nearly 80 percent of whom said that a loss in California, combined with Hillary Clinton’s virtually insurmountable delegate advantage, would represent the end of the road for Sanders. Only 21 percent said Sanders should take his campaign to the District’s June 14 primary.


“This race has been over for a long time. It's time for Bernie to prove that he is really a Democrat by getting out of the race and enthusiastically endorsing Hillary Clinton,” said a Florida Democrat, who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously. “The stakes are too high for Bernie to continue to pretend he has a chance.”

“If Bernie Sanders stays in the race after losing California, he will be remembered not as a successful champion of progressive ideals,” added a Colorado Democrat, “but instead as just another narcissistic politician.”

“If he doesn't end his campaign on Wednesday morning,” a New Hampshire Democrat added, “he becomes the most unpopular person in the Democratic Party.”

A number of insiders indicated that, given the likely delegate math, Sanders should concede the nomination to Clinton — win or lose in California. Counting publicly declared superdelegates, Clinton is 70 delegates shy of clinching the nomination — a figure she will almost certainly achieve early next Tuesday night, even before polls close in California.

“He should suspend his campaign even if he wins California, because by the time polls close in New Jersey, Secretary Clinton will have clinched the nomination,” said a New Hampshire Democrat.

“Win or lose,” added another New Hampshire Democrat, “Sanders should suspend his campaign. Any pretense that he cares about the Democratic Party is fading away. … Grow up already. You lost. Act like the hero you want people to think you are and get on board with the winner.”

But among the minority of Democratic insiders who disagreed, there was a sense that while Sanders doesn’t have to end his campaign immediately, he should begin the process of delivering his supporters to Clinton.

“He should go to the last primary, and then let his supporters know that they gave it a good shot and it's time to get behind Hillary,” said a Wisconsin Democrat.

“I am far less concerned with when he ends his campaign than how he ends it,” added a Colorado Democrat. “After [California and New Jersey], the reality will be apparent, and moving forward, he has earned the right to stay in this race, but he's got to do it in a way that doesn't put the general election at risk.”

While Sanders’ supporters are underrepresented on the Caucus panel, some of those who responded to the survey are rooting from him, as one Nevada Democrat put it, “Take it all the way to the convention in Philly!”

Added a New Hampshire Democrat: “He has earned the right to go all the way to the convention and fight for the agenda that inspired those of us who supported him.”

Said another: “Sanders has every right to make a play for the superdelegates,” calling it “a system widely reviled at the moment among the rank and file.”

Republicans, meanwhile, are cheering from the sidelines. Said one Iowa GOP insider: “I'm feeling the Bern all the way! The longer this bitter, nasty, divisive campaign continues, the longer it will take [for Democrats] to unify.”

GOP insiders: Trump won’t outperform Romney among Hispanics.

Donald Trump and his surrogates have been touting their standing in some polls among Hispanic voters, but insiders in both parties are pouring cold water on Trump’s claims that he will outperform the GOP’s last nominee among Latinos.

Mitt Romney won 27 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2012, according to exit polls. Nearly half of GOP insiders, 48 percent, said they think Trump will win a smaller percentage this fall, compared to 27 percent who think he will win a larger percentage, and 25 percent who said he would win about the same percentage.

“Romney had better Hispanic field and outreach to Hispanic community and will gain a larger percentage of the vote than Trump,” said a Republican in Florida, where Romney won 34 percent of the non-Cuban Hispanic vote, according to exit polls.

“He is delusional. And, most distressing, many formerly rational party leaders appear to be buying into his delusion,” added a New Hampshire Republican.

Among those GOP insiders who said Trump would underperform Romney’s 2012 campaign, their comments were more quips than expanded analysis.

“Is zero a smaller percentage?” teased an Ohio Republican.

“How do you say ‘not a chance in hell’ in Español?” asked a Florida Republican.

“Slim and none,” joked another Ohio Republican, “and slim has left the room.”

“Smaller,” said a Virginia Republican, “because, you know: reality.”

A Pennsylvania Republican said the “real question” is whether Trump can outperform Bob Dole's 21 percent showing in 1996, the historical low-water mark for Republican candidates.

“Seriously. Donald. Put down the Taco Bowl,” said an Iowa Republican, referring to a much-criticized recent Trump tweet. “Santa Anna wasn't nice at the Alamo, and there's no reason you'll be spared in this battle, either.”

The Republicans who said Trump would run stronger with Hispanics said the political media were mistaking all Latinos for those who are eligible and reliable voters.

“Pundits continue to confuse Hispanic voters with illegal immigrants,” said a Republican in Nevada, where Romney won only a quarter of the Hispanic vote, according to exit polling. “Illegal immigrants don't care for Trump's message, but they don't vote. Hispanic citizens, who were either born here or followed the rules and came to this country the right way, actually support the rule of law.”

“The Acela media make too much of the ‘Hispanic vote’ as a monolithic bloc,” added an Ohio Republican. “It's not.”

Democrats were confident on this question: More than 90 percent said Trump would win a smaller share of Latino voters than Romney. And many said, not only would Trump lose Hispanics overwhelmingly, his inflammatory statements would encourage more of them to register and turn out.

Trump “could speak in fluent Spanish for the rest of campaign and he will still lose a record number of Hispanics,” said a Democrat in Colorado, where Romney won just 23 percent of the Hispanic vote four years ago.

Ultimately, one Colorado Republican said, Trump’s struggles may not be confined only to voters of a specific race or ethnicity.

“I think he will win a smaller percentage of all voters, not just Hispanics,” the Republican said.

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this survey:

Colorado: Ryan Call, Laura Carno, Matt Chandler, Will Coyne, Adam Eichberg, Mark Ferrandino, Cole Finegan, Michael Fortney, Andrew Freedman, Ted Harvey, Craig Hughes, Owen Loftus, Pete Maysmith, Frank McNulty, Karen Middleton, BJ Nikkel, Josh Penry, Rick Ridder, Alan Salazar, Janice Sinden, Pat Steadman, Pat Waak, Steve Welchert, Taylor West, Roxane White, Rob Witwer

Florida: Fernand Amandi, Scott Arceneaux, JP Austin, Tim Baker, Dennis K. Baxley, Slater Bayliss, Dave Beattie, Wayne Bertsch, Ron Book, Pamela Burch Fort, Jose Calderon, Kevin Cate, Kelly Cohen, Gus Corbella, Brian Crowley, Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder, Justin Day, Judith Diaz, Nelson Diaz, John Dowless, Ryan Duffy, Jessica Ehrlich, Joe Falk, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Damien Filer, Marty Fiorentino, Rich Heffley, Nick Iarossi, David Johnson, Eric Johnson, Marian Johnson, Eric Jotkoff, Chris Korge, Jackie Lee, Susan MacManus, Beth Matuga, Fred Menachem, Jon Mills, Joe Mobley, Ben Pollara, Andrea Reilly, Steve Schale, April Schiff, Max Steele, Roger Stone, Richard Swann, Kevin Sweeny, Christian Ulvert, Steve Vancore, Ashley Walker, Andrew Weinstein, Andrew Wiggins, Ryan Wiggins, Rick Wilson

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Jerry Crawford, Sara Craig, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Ben Foecke, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Charlie Szold, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

Nevada: Mac Abrams, Greg Bailor, Barbara Buckley, Yvanna Cancela, Bob Cavazos, Linda Cavazos, Jim DeGraffenreid, Andrew Diss, Peter Ernaut, Ryan Erwin, Chip Evans, Jay Gerstema, Oscar Goodman, Ryan Hamilton, Dan Hart, Pat Hickey, Zach Hudson, Jeremy Hughes, Megan Jones, Lindsey Jydstrup, Adam Khan, Peter Koltak, Roberta Lange, Sam Liberman, Laura Martin, Michael McDonald, Chuck Muth, Erven Nelson, Kristen Orthman, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Jon Ralston, Andres Ramires, Emmy Ruiz, Scott Scheid, Mike Slanker, James Smack, Paul Smith, Jack St. Martin, Mari St. Martin, Daniel Stewart, Brendan Summers, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Michelle White, Ed Williams, Heidi Wixom

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

North Carolina: Don Davis, Francis X. De Luca, Anita Earls, Jonathan Felts, Tami L. Fitzgerald, Dylan Frick, Taylor Griffin, Robin Hayes, Morgan Jackson, Patsy Keever, Theresa Kostrzewa, Michael Luethy, Ray Martin, Thomas Mills, Melissa L. Reed, Chris Sgro, Paul Shumaker, Dee Stewart, Brad Thompson, Bruce Thompson, Charlie Wallin, Doug Wilson

Ohio: Jerry Austin, Greg Beswick, Matt Borges, Erica Bruton, Tim Burke, Janet Carson, Jai Chabria, Martha Clark, Bob Clegg, Damareo Cooper, Jo Ann Davidson, Michael Dawson, Bill DeMora, Cindy Demse, Kathy Dicristofaro, Katie Eagan, Michael Gonidakis, Wes Goodman, Joe Hallett, Ian James, Melissa Klide Hedden, David Leland, Nick Martin, Rhine McLin, David Pepper, Molly Shack, Mark R. Weaver

Pennsylvania: Chris Borick, Larry Ceisler, Valentino DiGiorgio, Jason Ercole, Dan Fee, Charlie Gerow, Marcel Groen, Leslie Gromis Baker, Mark Harris, Nan McLaughlin, Aubrey Montgomery, Christopher Nicholas, Nachama Soloveichik, David Sosar, Todd Stephens, Doc Sweitzer, David Thornburgh, Ray Zaborney

Virginia: Ray Allen, Sandra Brandt, Marc K. Broklawski, Patsy Brown, Janet Carver, John Cosgrove, Brian Coy, Doris Crouse-Mays, Tom Davis, Julie Dime, Abbi Easter, Mike Farris, John Findlay, Joe Fitzgerald, Sean Harrison, Margo Horner, Robert Hurt, Gaylene Kanoyton, Chris LaCivita, Sue Langley, Frank Leone, Robert G. Marshall, Tucker Martin, Ed Matricardi, Susan J. Rowland, Peter Snyder, Susan Swecker, Jo Thoburn

Wisconsin: Meg Andrietsch, Mary Arnold, Kevin Barthel, Mike Basford, Rebecca Bonesteel, Barry Burden, Terri Burl, Jim Camery, Patrick Guarasci, Robert Hansen, Gary Hawley, Marian Krumberger, Emily Nehring, Jason Rae, Brandon Scholz, John Zapfel

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.