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Too much faith in data encourages overconfidence in our understanding, sometimes disastrously.

One of the public mantras of the Trudeau government is the primacy it attaches to evidence-based policymaking. Never mind that evidence for some of its core policies is non-existent, such as that middle-class incomes need buttressing or pension incomes are at risk. There are many reasons to be skeptical that policies based on evidence produce better outcomes.

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Evidence is rarely unambiguous. Evidence can rule out bad ideas, but usually is unclear about affirming the correct answer. Karl Popper expressed best that rather than confirm something is true, empirical observation can only prove a theory false — famously, data showed all swans were white, until westerners arrived in Australia and discovered black swans. Science progresses funeral by funeral, by disproving, not by proving, results. Does the economy perform better under a monetary policy regime that follows rules or allows discretion? The evidence is mixed, swinging back and forth over time.