Estimating the potential impact of climate change on Hurricane Florence

CEM group members have been busy this week watching the path of Hurricane Florence in the North Atlantic. Prof. Kevin Reed and Ph.D. Alyssa Stansfield, along with colleagues at LBNL and NCAR, have for the first time used a climate model (CAM5) to produce near real-time experimental forecasts of Hurricane Florence to assess how much human induced climate change has altered the anticipated rainfall, intensity and size of the storm. Results using ensemble forecasts initialized Sept. 11 at 00Z (i.e., Sept. 10 at 8PM EDT) are seen below (click HERE for full pdf).

Hurricane Florence is expected to make landfall along the East Coast on Friday. Check the CEM Group website in the coming days for updated forecasts and analysis!

For questions contact: kevin.a.reed@stonybrook.edu