Matt Garza, fielding a grounder to the mound during spring training drills on Sunday, had his worst season in 2015, going 6-14 with a 5.63 ERA in 26 games. He’s hoping to turn things around. Credit: Roy Dabner / for the Journal Sentinel

By of the

Phoenix — One of the favorite off-season endeavors among fans of the Milwaukee Brewers, as well as media members who cover them, was guessing how many games the 2016 team will win.

Or, looking at it from the other end, how many games the Brewers will lose.

Suffice it to say expectations are low for a rebuilding team that has stripped down its big-league roster in favor of young players who will help transition the Brewers back to contending mode. In fact, the bar has been set so low, you'd have difficulty holding a limbo contest.

If there's one area of the club that might help the Brewers avoid 100 losses, it's the starting pitching. It was one of the main reasons the 2015 club was so bad, but with the rotation returning mostly intact the internal thinking is it has to be better this time around. After all, the starters compiled a 4.79 earned run average last season, ranking 28th among the 30 major-league clubs.

"I'm optimistic that the rotation will be better," said manager Craig Counsell. "It's a way for us to get better. You can see growth in a lot of those guys and the opportunity for more growth."

The way Counsell and general manager David Stearns see it, Matt Garza and Wily Peralta are bound to be better. Garza, who is halfway through a four-year, $50 million contract, had his worst season in 2015, going 6-14 with a 5.63 ERA in 26 games before being removed from the rotation with a month to go. Peralta was limited to 20 starts by a nagging oblique injury and went 5-10 with a 4.72 ERA after winning 17 games the previous year.

The belief is that young righties Jimmy Nelson and Taylor Jungmann are going to get better as they continue to mature and gain experience. Nelson, 26, posted an 11-13 record and 4.11 ERA in 30 starts and led the club with 148 strikeouts in 177 1/3 innings. Jungmann, 26, was sensational for three months after coming up from the minors in early June before running out of gas down the stretch and finishing 9-8 with a 3.77 ERA in 24 starts.

The No. 5 spot in the rotation originally was expected to be up for grabs, with Zach Davies, 23, having a foot in the door after a strong September showing (3-2, 3.71 in six starts). That changed when the Brewers acquired right-hander Chase Anderson in the recent Jean Segura trade with Arizona, giving them an established pitcher who has gone 15-13 with a 4.18 ERA in 48 starts in the majors.

"We have more talent than people expect," said Garza. "We're going to go out there and try to shock everybody."

Truth be told, if not for the remaining two years and $25 million remaining on his contract, Garza would not be in camp. He doesn't fit in the Brewers' massive rebuilding plan, and if he bounces back with a big season, look for Garza's name to be prominent in trade rumors prior to the Aug. 1 non-waiver deadline.

Whether Peralta fits in the rebuild remains to be seen. Had the Brewers put him on the market over the off-season, they would have been selling low. He doesn't turn 27 until May and if he gets in better shape — that was an issue last season — Peralta still might fit in the club's plans.

Peralta said he spent the off-season working on core exercises to avoid a repeat of the oblique issues and is focused on a bounce-back year.

"I'm ready to go," he said. "I just want to be healthy for the whole season. Last year, after I hurt my oblique, I was never the same. I've changed my routine a little bit. I feel stronger. I think we will have a good rotation this year. It's a lot better than people think."

If Counsell knows how he will line up his five starters at the start of the season, he is keeping that news to himself for now.

"We're trying to keep a bigger view of it than just what happens on opening day," he said. "I'll make an announcement at some point (on the No. 1 starter).

"We all get excited about the first (starter) but they'll all pitch the same number of starts throughout the season. ... We're going to have a five-man rotation and I view all those guys as equally important."

Beyond Davies, the Brewers have two highly rated prospects who might be knocking on the door soon in right-hander Jorge Lopez and lefty Josh Hader. Lopez, 23, was the pitcher of the year in 2015 in the Class AA Southern League and got his feet wet with three starts for the Brewers in late September.

One of four prospects acquired from Houston last July in the Carlos Gomez/Mike Fiers trade, Hader, 23, improved throughout the year and raised eyebrows in the Arizona Fall League by throwing in the high 90s with filthy stuff. Once considered a better bet to pitch in relief , he now is considered starting material.

Another pitcher on the not-too-distant horizon is righty Adrian Houser, also acquired in the Gomez deal. Big right-hander Ariel Pena pitched better as a starter than reliever last year at Class AAA Colorado Springs but probably would have to work out of the bullpen to make the Brewers' roster this spring.

"I think we addressed the need we had with depth in the rotation," said Counsell. "You don't use five starting pitchers in a season. You don't use six starting pitchers or seven. ...We are going to need starting pitching depth.

"I think there's reason to be optimistic about the starting rotation because now you have track records with all of these guys. It's definitely a part of the team we need to be stable and we feel it has a chance to be stable."

The Brewers suffered a team-wide collapse at the start of last season, leading to the firing of manager Ron Roenicke after only one month and setting the stage for the massive rebuilding project to follow. The starting rotation was one of the biggest culprits, beginning at the top with Kyle Lohse, who went 5-13 with a 6.31 ERA in 22 starts before being exiled to the bullpen.

As important as starting pitching is, the Brewers never had a chance in 2015. But if you assume the rotation is bound to be better this season — and one need not suspend disbelief to reach that conclusion — the chances of at least matching last year's win total of 68 improve.

The starting pitching will have to be better because the Brewers lost a lot of firepower from the offense during the strip-down of veterans. Is it reasonable to expect Garza and Peralta to be better? Yes. Do Nelson and Jungmann still have room for improvement? Of course. Can Anderson fill innings without catastrophe at the back of the rotation? He can.

Getting innings out of the rotation will be paramount. Of the returning starters, only Nelson exceeded 150 innings in 2015. It's a transitional season for the Brewers and they need stability in that department until the top pitching prospects arrive in the majors to complete the rebuild.

"We don't need guys to have fantastic or surprising seasons," said Counsell. "We just need them to do what they're capable of doing and what they've done in the past when they've been successful. That's all they need to do. It can be an area of strength."

BY THE NUMBERS

11 Pitchers made starts for the Brewers during 2015 season.

16-37 Combined record of first three starters last year (Lohse, Garza, Peralta).

905 Innings pitched by starters in '15, ranking 26th among 30 major league clubs.

1 Complete game last season (Taylor Jungmann vs. Dodgers in LA).

334 Walks by starting rotation in 2015, most in the majors.