Patience will help Guerrero get going at the plate The Blue Jays’ prized prospect is off to a slow start offensively because he’s trying too hard to make things happen, Steve Phillips writes.

Steve Phillips TSN Baseball Insider Archive

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is off to a slow start offensively (3-for-18, .167 with six strikeouts) as teams have clearly committed to a plan of attack against him.

Pitchers keep pounding the outside corner. They’re throwing the fastball away and then throwing sliders on the same plane and breaking them off the plate, trying to get Guerrero to chase. He has punched a couple hits to right field but hasn’t had much success so far. He has been a bit undisciplined and overaggressive, chasing a few balls out of the zone.

Guerrero has seen only 27.1 per cent of the pitches thrown to him land in the strike zone. The average hitter sees 42.8 per cent of pitches in the zone. Effectively, he’s being treated like an elite slugger. In fact, the lowest zone percentage of any of the 179 qualified hitters so far this season is Minnesota’s Eddie Rosario at 34.9 per cent.

These numbers indicate that Guerrero needs to be patient. He has to force pitchers to throw the ball back over the plate. In order to do that, he has to take the pitches out of the zone and not swing at them. That’s where Guerrero has had a bit of a struggle. He’s swinging at 37.1 per cent of the pitches out of the zone, while the average major leaguer swings at only 29.8 per cent off the plate.

Guerrero is trying a bit too hard to make things happen, rather than taking what he is given. Young hitters get to the major leagues and want to show that they can hit. Sometimes the best way to do that is to take pitches and force the pitcher back in the zone. If they want to walk you, let them walk you. I have no doubt he will figure it out.

Defensively, the young third baseman has been a pleasant surprise. He’s shown improved footwork and range. Last summer, he struggled to make throws on the run – especially when his body was moving away from first base.

Guerrero made a nice play in his debut on a short-hopper that he threw while moving. He made another excellent play where he positioned his feet in anticipation of needing to make a strong throw. He made a very athletic play moving to his left and diving to rob Albert Pujols of a base hit on Tuesday. I know people rolled their eyes when the Jays’ front office said Guerrero had to keep working on his defence in the minor leagues, assuming it was solely about service time manipulation. The reality is that he did need to work on it and he obviously has improved.

I have to admit that I was shocked when Jays’ manager Charlie Montoyo pinch ran for Guerrero in the ninth inning of a tie game in his major-league debut. Guerrero had doubled and stood at second base as the winning run. Montoyo didn’t hesitate to substitute Alen Hanson for the young slugger. I understand the goal is to win the game and Hanson is a faster runner, but, it was his debut. I would have thought that Montoyo might let the young man finish what he started. It isn’t like Guerrero is a bad baserunner. He isn’t slow; he’s just not as fast as Hanson.

One can make an argument that pinch running for one of your best hitters in a tie game in the ninth inning is a mistake because if the run doesn’t score, the best bat is no longer available in extra innings. Montoyo may have thought it was appropriate because Guerrero was batting fifth in the lineup. There will come a time when Guerrero locks himself in as the third batter in the lineup. At that point, it won’t be acceptable to pinch run for him.

What does the future hold for Stroman, Sanchez?

Marcus Stroman (2.20 ERA) and Aaron Sanchez (3.09 ERA) are off to good starts this season. Other than a broken fingernail for Sanchez, they’ve been healthy and productive.

The best thing for the Jays and the two young veteran starters is that they continue to pitch well. For Stroman and Sanchez, it would put them in the best possible position to be part of a winning team and to get offered a big contract. For the Jays, it would put them in a position to consider extensions or trades. Both are due to be free agents after the 2020 season.

The reality is that no matter how well the two righties perform between now and July 31, I don’t know that there is anything they can do to get me to trust their predictably. I would be willing to offer a three-year deal at most because of their health issues and performance variance. That would take Sanchez through the age of 30 and Stroman to 31.

If there isn’t a deal to be made, a trade at the deadline is most likely. If there isn’t an appropriate deal, moving them in the off-season is an option as well. Worst-case scenario, the Jays hold one or both of them until next year’s deadline and make a deal then.

Spitting Seeds

- Home runs are going through the roof again. We’re on another record-setting pace in 2019. The scary thing is that April is usually the least offensive month of the season because of weather. This year, the ball is flying out of ballparks everywhere. In fact, the average distance of home runs is way up as well. There are a number of reasons for the early homer binge, including higher pitch velocity and the launch angles of swings. Another popular hypothesis is that the ball is juiced. There have been studies that show the balls have a lower drag coefficient than in the past, which means they sail further. It’s also worth noting that the major-league ball is being used at Triple-A for the first time this season and homers have also spiked there. Entering play Friday, Triple-A teams were averaging 1.28 homers per game. At Double-A, where they aren’t using the major-league ball, teams are averaging 0.73 homers per game.

- It wasn’t unexpected, but Phillies fans have already started booing Bryce Harper. It seems like the honeymoon is over. Harper handled it well with humility and understanding, but he’s in a tough spot because his contract has created unrealistic expectations. The fans look at him as one of the top players in the game, but the truth is he’s good but not one of the best. Unless the fans lower their expectations, Harper will always feel like a disappointment. He has a career .898 OPS. So far this season he has an .848 OPS. Sure, it is a little less than his average, but it’s not that far off. He’s a high-strikeout, high-walk guy with some power who is a below-average defender. Harper can look great for two weeks and then look completely lost for two weeks. He had an elite MVP season in 2015, but he is not a consistent MVP candidate. Plus, Harper is a streaky offensive player. If the fans don’t change their views, Harper better get hot and stay hot or it could make for a tough relationship.

- The Nationals fired pitching coach Derek Lilliquist on the same night that Washington starter Stephen Strasburg became the fastest pitcher ever to reach 1,500 strikeouts. Nationals pitchers are ranked 13th in the NL in ERA. The bullpen has been extraordinarily bad, carrying a league-worst 5.87 ERA. It is a results-oriented job. Mike Rizzo, the Nats’ GM, said the firing had to do with preparation issues and that the front office had been contemplating the move for a while. I have fired coaches in season for the same reason. Sometimes the change worked and sometimes it didn’t. But when things are going poorly you sometimes have to make a change.

- There has been a lot of energy in Chicago as shortstop Addison Russell’s 40-game suspension for a violation of MLB’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy came to an end. Fans and media have had a lot of different opinions about Russell getting a second chance. The club has decided to option Russell to the minors. He’s only been able to play six games as part of a rehab assignment, so the Cubs thought it would be better for him to go to Triple-A to get more at-bats. Plus, Russell is going to play second base in the minors because he lost his position to Javier Baez. There are no scholarships in Major League Baseball, so Russell now must earn what he gets back in his career. This is the right move on so many levels. By all indications, Russell has done the right thing in his recovery and been accountable for his actions. But one doesn’t get rewarded just for doing the right thing. Now he has to go earn it on the field. The Cubs are handling things properly, but now it’s up to Russell.