Some corners of the G.O.P. may be blinded by Donald Trump’s hopeful forecast for a “red wave” as the midterms approach, but the nightmare facing the party is quite real. With the most polarizing president in history leading the charge, Republicans are facing a likely Democratic takeover, with polls finding that voters favor a generic Democrat by an average of 8 points—enough, according to historical trends, to flip the House back into Nancy Pelosi’s hands. Though Republicans have managed to hold several seats in special elections, the general election has presented the G.O.P. with two problems: first, an unprecedented surge in Democratic turnout, and second, a spate of lackluster (or even overtly bad) candidates. They’ve already encountered this phenomenon in the form of national embarrassment Roy Moore in Alabama, as well as in Pennsylvania, where Rick Saccone lost in part thanks to sheer apathy. Meanwhile, some of their worst candidates—such as Duncan Hunter, a sitting Republican congressman facing multiple charges of campaign-finance fraud—can no longer be taken off the ballot.

Even without a slate of exceptionally unimpressive contenders, House Republicans face a brutally simple calculus: of the 48 seats that are considered competitive, 41 are held by Republicans, and only 7 are held by Democrats. Republicans will lose their majority if Democrats flip more than 23. Moreover, the national party’s resources are not unlimited. Politico reports that the G.O.P. has thus begun to streamline its efforts—or, less politely, to purge itself of deadweight, almost-certain-to-lose candidates in order to fund surer bets. “At this point in the cycle with a field this large, difficult choices will have to be made,” Brian Walsh, who oversees the pro-Trump America First Action super PAC, told Politico. “Such is the world we live in now.”