On the 21st of August this year Liverpool made the bold decision of signing the controversial Mario Balotelli for around $25 million. Liverpool manager Brendan Rodgers himself claimed the signing was a “calculated risk”, and with his unpredictable nature there is no doubt that Balotelli is a risk for the Anfield side. The question is: how well calculated was it?

There is no questioning Balotelli’s talent and there hasn’t been since he became the youngest Internazionale player to score a Champions League goal all the way back in November 2008. In fact, if his talent was the only consideration for Liverpool when the purchased the Italian striker they most likely would have been happy to pay twice as much for him, but one of Balotelli’s biggest criticisms has been his inability to consistently play to his full potential.

This is a large part of the reason Balotelli is such a risk. In his second season for Manchester City it seemed as though Balotelli had taken his game to the next level as he concluded the Premier League season with 13 goals in just 23 appearances, however the next season Balotelli would only find the back of the net once in 14 appearances.

Balotelli’s unpredictable nature has been similarly replicated in his international career. After his move to his former rivals AC Milan Balotelli seemed reenergized for club and country alike. From 2012 to the start of 2014 Balotelli was key for Italy scoring 11 goals in 22 appearances yet 2014 would prove less prosperous for Balotelli and after an underwhelming World Cup Balotelli now finds himself exiled from the Italian squad. However the decision Italian manager Antonio Conte made to remove Balotelli from the squad was not simply down to his performances but the other factor that makes Balotelli a risk.

Balotelli’s unpredictable nature on the pitch certainly replicates his nature off the pitch. To claim Balotelli is a lightning rod for controversy is a great understatement and while some stories such as driving into a women’s prison and setting his apartment on fire by lighting fireworks in the bathroom simply provide amusement other incidents have had a more dire effect on his standing in the team.

Other incidents including when Balotelli was still playing for Inter and appeared on a show wearing an AC Milan shirt and his famous squabble with then manager Roberto Mancini are just a few examples of actions that had the potential to effect his team and his own performances in a negative manner. While it is worth mentioning the press have never particularly endeared themselves to the Italian, Balotelli’s erratic off field behavior is certainly something that Brendan Rodgers would have spent many hours worrying about.

Taking all this into account is it simply the case that Rodgers is an idealist and feels he can find the best in Balotelli on a more consistent basis than any of Balotelli’s previous managers? Not quite, as there are some facts that will give Liverpool fans some closure over their new signing.

While Balotelli’s performances from season to season can vary substantially his overall statistics at his three previous clubs; Internazionale, Manchester City and AC Milan, suggest that Balotelli’s rises and drops in form largely cancel each other out. At each of these three clubs his goals to league appearances ratio has never dipped below 1 in 3, which is certainly respectable. This means that even with the slow start he is having at his new club, Liverpool should have faith in him as it is almost inevitable he will turn it around.

Balotelli’s transfer history is also something Liverpool will find refreshing. The amount Liverpool paid for Balotelli is very close to the amount AC Milan paid for him which was also very close to the amount Manchester City paid for him. The money these three teams spent on Balotelli on varies by a few million dollars. This has been the case even with Balotelli’s spectacular shifts in form which means Liverpool can take heart in knowing if the transfer doesn’t work to their satisfaction the may still recover their costs, minus his wages. In fact at 24 Balotelli is nearing his peak and in a couple of years could well be more valuable than ever.

Mario Balotelli may never be the most consistent source of goals for Liverpool, but his statistics suggest that he will score plenty. His controversy may also at times hinder his performances but ultimately other teams will value him regardless. This means that, while it is perhaps naïve to assume Balotelli will show nothing but his good side at Liverpool, he is a risk worth taking nonetheless simply for the impact he can have when he is in form.

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