Since we just commemorated former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi’s birth anniversary two days ago, it may do well to start with a counterfactual relating to his period. Most people by know the events relating to his massive victory in 1984 and his downfall in 1989. There was this enormous upsurge of hope and optimism for the future, the faith vested in a young leader, who, stricken by personal tragedy, nevertheless appeared fully committed to ushering in a new era for the nation. We also know that this promise was unfulfilled. The heightened corruption, minority appeasement, increasing communal divide and the slow implosion of an economy quickly turned hope into despair and despair into anger. An anger that raged with unusual intensity during those heady election days ending Rajiv Gandhi’s tenure as PM and ushering in India’s second experiment with non-Congress government since 1947.

Now, let’s speculate a bit and imagine that the Congress party instead of being on the defensive about all those corruption charges and electorate anger in the campaign of 1989 actually went on the front foot praising Mr Gandhi and his efforts to clean up corruption and end the reign of power brokers. That was his promise back in 1985 when he took over. A promise that was not kept but imagine that the Congress deployed all resources in the summer of 1989 to paint Mr Gandhi as a reformer out to improve governance and quality of life. So, push aside Bofors, rising prices, corruption and talk about the Bombay speech of 1985 and the call to root out corrupt, all in a desperate effort to retain the throne. Don’t talk about the last three years and only talk about the first as if the bad part of the reign simply did not exist! It didn’t happen of course but it wouldn’t have been unthinkable or unrealistic! All political parties turn desperate from time to time and while the Congress was indeed desperate, they did not adopt this particular tactic!

Now, flash forward to August 2018. Last week, the government released GDP back series data showing that economic growth twice under the UPA regime had crossed 10%. First was in 2007/0-8 by 10.3% and the second was in 10/11 by 10.78%. Growth under the old series had touched 9% but never entered double-digit territory. This was enough for Congress and its band of supporters in media to go to town about the UP’s economic prowess and its stewardship of the economy. P Chidambaram, former finance minister, said that the numbers prove that the UPA had handed over an economy in an upswing in 2014. “The numbers prove the dictum that truth cannot be suppressed for ever and that the truth has a way of emerging amidst a torrent of lies and distortions,” he said last week.

Now, remember the new data series didn’t say growth was spectacular throughout the 10-year-UPA reign. The high point of growth in the 2004-2014 period was 2010/11 when the economic bounced back under fiscal stimulus and recovery from the global financial crisis! Growth thereafter slid steadily till it touched 6.6% in 2013/14 even as other macroeconomic indicators worsened. Current account deficit widened to 5.7% of GDP, trade deficit climbed to 6.72% of GDP in 2012, inflation stayed stubbornly at near 10% levels with food inflation still higher and in double digits. Stock markets tanked, the rupee plunged and India became among the fragile five in summer of 2013 causing a crisis of confidence in the country’s ability to manage its finances in a prudent manner.

This is the reality but what the Congress and its supporters are doing is quite similar to the hypothetical example cited above. They are claiming superior economic stewardship skills solely based on the first UPA reign and attempting to brush aside the calamitous second term when India almost succumbed to a crisis largely of its own making. By talking up the period when growth was higher and faster, they are trying to show that they are better at economic management than the Narendra Modi administration which has not had growth above 8% till now!

As a political tactic, this is smart but also predictable! In a world where social media hyperventilation and Whatsapp activism has reached unheard of heights, it is also unworkable! The reality of UPA 2’s disastrous economic mismanagement is unlikely to be forgotten in a hurry! Ordinary citizens still remember the back-breaking inflation and businessmen are unlikely to forget the policy paralysis. Corruption, mismanagement right from the prime minister’s office to the local MLA was the bane of the UPA and the Congress and that image has stuck as senior politicians like Mr Chidambaram fight cases and new details of irregularities emerge almost every day.

True, the Narendra Modi government has not managed to grow the economy to the level of the UPA-1 high growth years. Two back-to-back drought years and disruptions like demonetisation and GST have weighed on growth. The Modi government also reacted late to the banks bad loan problem though a massive clean-up exercise involving the bankruptcy courts is underway. Farm growth is still sluggish and it will probably take years to deliver sustained agricultural growth given the many complexities and regional variations across the country.

But the Modi sarkar has to be commended for one thing. A sustained effort to fix structural macro economic problems, revive investor confidence and boost growth. Fiscal deficit is down from its high perch during the UPA years, confidence of creditors has risen, inflation has been tamed though high prices could still play spoilsport. FDI numbers continue to rise every year and direct tax collections have been robust with the number of filers going up at a decent pace.

One direct result of improved macroeconomic stability is relative market performance in 2018 at a time of global and emerging market turmoil. Far from succumbing to panic like it did in 2013 during the taper tantrum, markets have been remarkably stable at least since May this year. The equity markets are among the best performers in EM so far this year. The rupee has fallen to all-time lows but is still better than many EM currencies and investor confidence has not fallen off the cliff like in 2013.

The Congress’ claims of better economic stewardship during its 10-year-reign also has to be taken with a large pinch of salt. A biased look at a data and statistics will only give a distorted picture. For instance, the UPA-1 did not link oil prices to market rates thereby distorting its impact on inflation in 2004-08. The fiscal deficit picture was also skewed as oil bonds, given to oil companies for borrowings, were never a part of the budget. The budget never reflected the true nature of the government’s liabilities. Imagine what would have happened if the RBI had raised rates to stave off high inflation caused by rising oil prices and fiscal slippages. We could have well had a slowdown well before the global financial crisis in 2008.

I don’t want to take away credit from what the UPA-1 did. All governments should get credit even if some of the policies that led to high growth were implemented in previous administrations. But some perspective is needed before we rush off to say that UPA and the Congress were better economic managers. The reality is they were not. They could not sustain growth and a mixture of corruption, disastrous economic management resulted in a deep crisis from which we are only now recovering. Manmohan Singh can claim that history will be kind to him but he should remember that history remembers Rajiv Gandhi as a failure. As a man whose era was marked by corruptiona scandals, out of control government spending leading to the spectacular crash of 1991!