ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Richard Band is not someone who makes outlandish predictions just to get headlines.

So I sat up and took notice earlier this week when he wrote to subscribers of his Profitable Investing newsletter that the stock market was ready to "rocket higher" in an "uptrend that could carry the blue chip indexes to all-time highs by late 2008 or early 2009. Dow 16,000 here we come!"

The Hulbert Financial Digest (HFD) has been tracking Band's newsletter since the beginning of 1991. Over the subsequent 17 years, his recommended portfolio has been 35% less volatile than the overall stock market, as measured by relative volatilities. To use a baseball analogy, this shows that Band is more inclined to try to get a base hit than he is to attempt to belt a home run.

Band's conservative approach is crucial to properly interpreting his newsletter's performance. According to the HFD, the newsletter's model portfolios on average have produced an 8.6% annualized return since the beginning of 1991, in contrast to 10.9% annualized for the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index 97199001. But with only two thirds as much risk, we should expect some below-market return.

It turns out that, upon risk-adjusting his newsletter's performance, it equals that of the market itself. That's good enough to place it in the upper echelon of newsletters over this period, and another reason to give weight to his forecast.

Technical factors appear to have led Band to make such a bold prediction, which amounts to a 33% return for the overall market over the next 12 months.

The first has to do with the stock market's internal characteristics when it hit a low earlier this month. Band argues that that low possessed "many striking technical resemblances to the great bear market bottoms of the past."

To be sure, Band wrote that on Tuesday night, and since then the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.47% has dropped 230 points.

But Band says he is not particularly worried. On Thursday night, he told subscribers not to let "Mr. Market wear you out!"

Band continued: "We're in a critical stage for stocks right now, what technical analysts call the 'right shoulder' of a head-and-shoulders bottom. The left shoulder formed on March 10, when the Standard & Poor's 500 index SPX, -0.48% touched its closing low for the year (so far) at 1273.37. The upside-down head came on March 17, when the index broke to a new low intraday but finished at 1276.60, slightly above the March 10 close. Now we're sliding down again to complete the right shoulder of the pattern. If all goes well, the S&P should remain comfortably above the two previous closing lows. Then we can rocket higher in April."

Band adds that when the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders bottom is forming, "the biggest temptation for investors is to throw up their hands and say, 'This market will never go up. It's doomed.' Don't make that mistake. A very powerful and durable rally is in the works. But it may need another couple of days to lift off. Hold the fort and keep the faith!"