Five Democratic Primaries: Exit Poll Discrepancies and Win Probabilities

Richard Charnin

Updated March 20, 2016

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll (E-book)

LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Election Fraud Overview

This is a summary exit poll analysis of the five March 15 Democratic primaries. It follows previous posts on the Massachusetts and Michigan primaries.

In the five unadjusted exit polls there were 7,220 respondents. Clinton led by 53.2-44.7%.

In the final adjusted polls polls, there were 7979 respondents (759 additional). She led the final adjusted polls (which were matched to the recorded vote) by 55.6-42.4%.

DATA SOURCES

The table below was created by Theodore de Macedo Soares (tedsoares@yahoo.com)

CNN is the source of the state exit polls which were downloaded shortly after closing.

The NY Times is the source of the reported vote counts.

Assuming a 30% cluster effect, the exit poll margin of error is:

MoE = 1.3*1.96 *sqrt [p*(1-p)/N], where p =2-party exit poll share, N = sample-size.

Sanders win probability is P = NORMDIST (V, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)

V = his 2- party exit poll share. His win probability is 80% in MO and 74% in IL.

The probability of the 10% OH exit poll discrepancy is P= 0.00102 (1 in 976):

P = 1- NORMDIST(EP, VS, MoE/1.96,true), where EP=48.1% is Sanders’ 2-party exit poll share and VS=43.0% his 2-party recorded vote share.

Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in n= 15 of N= 16 polls.

P= 0.00026 = 1-BINOMDIST(n-1,N,0.5,true) or 1 in 3855.

There is a 99.9% probability that this anomaly was due to election fraud.

Clinton had 586 (77.2%) of the FINAL 759 respondents, or 21.9% above her unadjusted share. Sanders had 20% (24.7% below his unadjusted share).

He had 37% of Democrats, 64% of Independents, 49% of males and 38% of females. But since the adjusted polls were forced to match the recorded vote, he must have done better in those categories.

In the 2014 elections, 41.6% of males and 43.2% of females voted. In the five Democratic primaries, 43.4% of males and 56.6% of females voted.In the 2014 elections, 82% of voters were white. In the five primaries, 63% were white.

The Chicago Board of Elections proved fraud in an audit to check voting machines. It was not an official recount and will not change the election outcome. A CBOE employee recounting an early voting machine corrected the tally to square with the electoral result, even though the hand-count was off by 70 votes in favor of Clinton.

Effects of Election Fraud on the Delegate count

Officially, HRC has 8,653,327 votes (58.6%), Bernie has 6,115,550 (41.4%). Applying the approximate 6.6% exit poll discrepancy (972,168 of 14,768,877 total votes), HRC has 8,167,189 votes and Bernie 6,601,688 (55.3-44.7%). Clinton leads by 306 delegates (1119-813). Applying Clinton’s adjusted 55.3% share of the current 1932 delegates, she leads by just 204 (1068-864). Super delegates are excluded. Clinton’s votes appear to have been padded in the RED states to increase her delegate count.

Primary Votes/Exit Polls

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1476097125

Delegates

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1368619048

View the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1710111458

Exit Poll CNN Clinton Sanders Margin NC 53.8% 41.7% 12.1% FL 63.7% 35.9% 27.8% IL 48.4% 50.7% -2.3% MO 47.4% 51.1% -3.7% OH 51.4% 47.6% 3.8%

Recorded Clinton Sanders Margin Discrepancy NC 54.6% 40.8% 13.8% 1.7% FL 64.5% 33.3% 31.2% 3.4% IL 50.5% 48.7% 1.7% 4.0% MO 49.6% 49.4% 0.2% 3.9% OH 56.5% 42.7% 13.8% 10.0%

2-party exit poll Clinton Sanders Sampled MoE NC 56.3% 43.7% 1744 3.03% FL 64.0% 36.0% 1632 3.03% IL 48.8% 51.2% 1341 3.48% MO 48.1% 51.9% 831 4.42% OH 51.9% 48.1% 1670 3.12%

Probability Analysis Probability of discrepancy: 1 in Probability of Discrepancy Sanders Win Prob NC 4 28.0% 0.0% FL 22 4.6% 0.0% IL 8 13.2% 74.3% MO 4 22.5% 79.8% OH 976 0.1% 11.4%

Discrepancies in eight of nine exit polls favored Clinton in the reported vote. The average margin discrepancy was 8.5%, The 4.25% vote share discrepancy is far beyond the 9-poll margin of error (approximately 2%)

Cumulative Vote Shares (based on precinct votes) is a likely indicator of fraud.

DATA SOURCES

The tables below were created by Theodore de Macedo Soares (tedsoares@yahoo.com).

CNN is the source of the state exit polls which were downloaded shortly after closing.

The NY Times is the source of the reported vote counts.