Saturday, January 25th will hold no less than five guild or industry awards ceremonies thanks to the shortened Oscar season (including the Annies and the USC Scripter) and here I’ll detail my preview and predictions for the Directors Guild (DGA), American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) and the Cinema Audio Society (CAS).

With the Producers Guild (PGA) going for 1917 and the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) going for Parasite we’re on deck for a real horse race this season as we careen around the corner to the Academy Awards on February 9th. The BAFTAs reveal the week before but their track record this decade, thanks to Oscar’s preferential ballot, has been spotty at best.

The DGA however, is as solid a predictor for who will win the Best Director Oscar as it gets. Were it not for Ben Affleck’s shocking snub for 2012’s Argo, the DGA to Oscar matchup would be 100% for this decade so far. 66% of the time we saw DGA, BAFTA and Oscar all align although, only three times did the DGA-winning director helm Oscar’s Best Picture (Hazanavicius, Affleck and de Toro – see chart below).

This year is a fight between Sam Mendes (1917) for his second win (and his first in 20 years after 1999’s American Beauty) and Bong Joon Ho (Parasite) for his first. The late-breaking 1917 has already defied quite a bit of history to become a frontrunner as a Christmas Day limited release with no festival run but Mendes won the Golden Globe and tied with Bong at Critics’ Choice. But those aren’t industry. They can sometime set the pace (or roll with it, as the CCA tries to do) but the Directors Guild (and BAFTA next week) will tell us where the wind is blowing. Does a Bong win here foretell a Best Picture win in two weeks? It might but I it’s hard to think that the DGA (and the Oscars) won’t be dazzled by the difficulty level of 1917 and if this last decade of director winners proves anything it’s that risky, wild and over the top directorial achievements are what gets you the gold.

The First-Time Feature Director nominees, unlike the all-boys club of the main award, has three female nominees yet, like the directing prize at the Spirit Awards last year, it feels like it will still likely to go a man. Olivia Wilde (Booksmart) was weirdly snubbed here despite earning the most critics’ citations for a first film/first-time director. But Joe Talbot (The Last Black Man in San Francisco) was close behind. Alma Ha’rel (Honey Boy) has probably pressed more flesh than anyone in this category so she’s a distinct possibility as a winner.

FILM YEAR DGA BAFTA OSCAR 2010 Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech David Fincher, The Social Network Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech** 2011 Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist** Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist** 2012 Ben Affleck, Argo* Ben Affleck, Argo** Ang Lee, Life of Pi 2013 Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity 2014 Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman Richard Linklater, Boyhood** Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman** 2015 Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant** Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant 2016 Damien Chazelle, La La Land Damien Chazelle, La La Land** Damien Chazelle, La La Land 2017 Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water** 2018 Alfonso Cuarón, Roma Alfonso Cuarón, Roma** Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

*not Oscar-nominated **also won Best Picture/Film

The 2019 Directors Guild of America (DGA) nominees for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film are:

Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

Sam Mendes, 1917

Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

My prediction: Sam Mendes, 1917 with a good chance for Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)

The 2019 Directors Guild of America (DGA) nominees for Outstanding Directorial Achievement of a First-Time Feature Film Director are:

Mati Diop, Atlantics

Alma Har’el, Honey Boy

Melina Matsoukas, Queen & Slim

Joe Talbot, The Last Black Man in San Francisco

Tyler Nilson and Michael Schwartz, The Peanut Butter Falcon

My prediction: Joe Talbot, The Last Black Man in San Francisco with Alma Har’el, Honey Boy as a possible spoiler.

AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CINEMATOGRAPHERS (ASC)

In this decade, the every winner of the cinematography Oscar was at least nominated for the ASC first, five have won. That essentially eliminates The Lighthouse‘s chances. Blade Runner 2049 will remain the only cinematography Oscar winner to not come from a Best Picture nominee. Emmanuel Lubezki’s record-setting three-year winning streak ran through ASC, BAFTA and Oscar; a feat I can’t imagine happening any time soon. In Roger Deakins’ Oscar-winning year, he also ran the table Blade Runner 2049. It’s unlikely we’ll have a year like 2011 where the prize went to three different cinematographers across ASC, BAFTA and Oscar.

Roger Deakins (1917) will close out the decade with his third DGA win on his way to his second Oscar. Seven of ten years of ASC will be shared by just two people. When they like you here, they really like you.

FILM YEAR ASC BAFTA OSCAR 2010 Wally Pfister, Inception Roger Deakins, True Grit Wally Pfister, Inception 2011 Emmanuel Lubezki, The Tree of Life Guillaume Shiffman, The Artist Robert Richardson, Hugo 2012 Roger Deakins, Skyfall Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi 2013 Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity 2014 Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman 2015 Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant 2016 Greig Fraser, Lion Linus Sandgren, La La Land Linus Sandgren, La La Land 2017 Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049 Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049 Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049 2018 Łukasz Żal, Cold War Alfonso Cuarón, Roma Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

The American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) nominees are:

Roger Deakins, 1917

Phedon Papamichael, Ford v Ferrari

Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman

Lawrence Sher, Joker

Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse

My prediction: Roger Deakins, 1917 (no spoiler).

CINEMA AUDIO SOCIETY (CAS)

Only one time this decade has a non-CAS nominee gone on to with the Sound Mixing Oscar (2014’s Whiplash). This year, 1917 missed CAS but is still the frontrunner for the Oscar. Since BAFTA has a single sound category that encompasses both sound mixing and sound editing, it is not included in the side-by-side comparisons.

Vroom vroom, bitches. This should be Ford v Ferrari‘s to lose, which could give it enough gas going into Oscar voting to also translate that to a sound mixing win. The musical biopic Bohemian Rhapsody won here and at the Oscars but this year’s version, Rocketman, got in at CAS but was Oscar-snubbed. Joker and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood are the only possible spoilers.

FILM YEAR CAS OSCAR 2010 True Grit Inception 2011 Hugo Hugo 2012 Les Misérables Les Misérables 2013 Gravity Gravity 2014 Birdman Whiplash* 2015 The Revenant Mad Max: Fury Road 2016 La La Land Hacksaw Ridge 2017 Dunkirk Dunkirk 2018 Bohemian Rhapsody Bohemian Rhapsody

*not CAS-nominated

The 2019 Cinema Audio Society (CAS) nominees are:

Ford v Ferrari

The Irishman

Joker

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Rocketman

My prediction: Ford v Ferrari with a chance of a Joker spoiler.

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