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By Norm Frauneheim-



It’s a season of declining expectations. Miguel Cotto’s dramatic victory over Sergio Martinez represents the third straight time that pay-per-view numbers for a major fight were disappointing. Once might be an aberration. Twice is cause for concern. But three straight? That’s a trend.

The reported number for HBO”s PPV-telecast of Cotto-Martinez on June 7 was 350,000. The projection was 460,000 to 500,000. That follows reports that Floyd Mayweather Jr.’s decision on May 3 over Marcos Maidana fell short of the one-million mark, an expectation built into the Money May nickname. Mayweather has generated more than one million in six fights — Oscar De La Hoya (2.4), Canelo Alvarez (2.2), Cotto (1.5), Shane Mosley (1.4) Victor Ortiz (1.25) and Juan Manuel Marquez (1.06). Against Maidana, the buy-rate was reported to be about 900,000, although Showtime has not announced a number.

The first domino to fall was Manny Pacquiao’s rematch victory over Timothy Bradley on April 12. The HBO telecast did between 750,000 and and 800,000 according to various media sources. Like Mayweather, Pacquiao failed to meet the million milestone that the Filipino has often surpassed. His PPV average was 1.079 million for seven fights between his victory over Oscar De La Hoya on Dec. 6, 2008 and his majority-decision over Marquez on Nov. 12, 2011 in their second rematch.

The 2014 decline has been blamed on a lot of things, all reasonable. There have been too many pay-per-view shows for ho-hum fights, Top Rank’s Bob Arum told ESPN. There was too much competition for eyeballs on the Cotto-Martinez weekend, when the Los Angeles Kings and New York Rangers played for the Stanley Cup and the Triple Crown was at stake in the Belmont, Martinez promoter Lou DiBella said.

Yes and yes.

But the conversation ignores a very big fly in the troublesome ointment.

Sliding numbers are further confirmation that the promotional feud has taken a toll. It appears that the bitter divide between Golden Boy and Top Rank has begun to heal because of De La Hoya’s initiative. He reached out to Arum and promised to renew a working relationship with ex-Golden Boy CEO Richard Schaefer’s sworn enemy. The move was gutsy, yet risky. It led to immediate turbulence at Golden Boy, the company he founded in 2002. Schaefer resigned. Chief Operating Officer Bruce Binkow soon followed. But it’s hard to know what will happen, long-term.

What the PPV numbers say, however, is that the so-called cross-over crowd, the casual boxing fan, has moved on. It’s safe to say that the cross-over fan isn’t interested in the blow-by-blow coverage of insults exchanged by feuding personalities. Nasty divorces, done over and over again, are tired events. Good fights aren’t. The best of the good just hasn’t happened because of a feud that might be healing, but isn’t resolved.

The guess here is that a key clue to Golden Boy’s future will be revealed this fall. On October 13, a lawsuit filed by All-Star Boxing against Golden Boy involving Canelo is scheduled to go to trial in Florida’s Dade County. The allegation is that Golden Boy signed Canelo when he was still under contract to All-Star.

If it was business as usual, the lawsuit might come and go like so many others have. But these are unusual times, even for a sport that has seen it all. The October trial looms as critical. Canelo is the biggest draw in Mexico, boxing’s biggest market. Retaining his promotional rights would appear to be a cornerstone to Golden Boy’s viability. Whatever happens in that Miami courtroom, it’ll have lasting impact throughout.

Until October, however, the business is in limbo. There are some very good fights, the biggest of which is Canelo-versus-Erislandy Lara on July 12 in a Showtime pay-pew-view fight at Las Vegas’ MGM Grand. But will the cross-over fan watch? The first half of 2014 says no.

That cross-over demographic is critical. It’s what turns a good fight into a blockbuster and what makes Mayweather worth the potential $250 million that Showtime invested in him. Thus far, however, that crowd isn’t there anymore.

For now, the NHL, or horse racing, or the World Cup, or a movie looks as if it’s a better investment than pay-per-view boxing. Winning back that fan is the biggest fight, but doing it is a challenge complicated by a sport that has yet to repair itself.