A recent story circulating around the pro football world claims that Deshaun Watson has a weak arm due to being clocked at a mere 49mph at the combine, well below a common tolerated range for Pro QB’s. This is contradicted by ESPN's Sports Science series claiming his throw velocity was 53.5mph. Who do we believe? Is there validity to the claim that this 49mph number reflects his general arm strength in live games? There is no doubt that the overwhelming narrative at this point is that; as a prospect, Deshaun Watson has all of the intangibles and plenty of athleticism, but has questionable arm strength and needs to learn how to play in a pro system.

I intend on examining the claim about his arm strength with a couple intermediate throws to the best of my imperfect, armchair abilities will allow, and hopefully to a standard that will please most readers. Take these results with a grain of salt, as everything is hand timed and imperfect, but hopefully I timed everything reasonably accurately and perhaps I can spur more talented and detail oriented people than I to do their own determinations on even more throws.





Things to note: Times were taken as best as possible via a stopwatch app from the moment the ball was released to the moment it was caught. Velocities calculated are an average over the distance travelled and are likely faster at the point of release due to air friction and other variables.





Throw #1:

https://youtu.be/a6ZOUX5la-w?t=1789

Timestamp: 29:49





Clemson Vs Alabama, 2017 National championship game. Situation: 1st & 10 from the Clemson 26 yard line with 5:54 left in the 4th quarter. Throw is from the left hashmark on the 19 yard line. Ball is completed to TE Jordan Leggett, approximately half the distance from the top of the numbers to the sideline, at the Clemson 36 yard line for a 17 yard gain.

Length a: 36-19 = 17 yards or 51 feet. Length b: 60’ (hash) - 13’ = ~47 feet. Formula for a right triangle: a^2 + b^2 = c^2 51^2 * 47^2 = c^2 c = 69.35’ (23.11 yards)

So I have determined with super complicated math wizardry that the ball travelled approximately ~69.35’ feet through the air on this play.





Next, I must determine the time the ball took to reach it’s target. I took down 25 hand times, and found an average of approximately 0.861 seconds (raw data will be provided).





Now to determine the speed. If the ball travelled ~69.35 feet in 0.861 seconds, that means it was travelling 69.35/0.861, or an average velocity of ~80.54ft/s.





~80.54ft/s = ~54.91mph.











Throw #2:

https://youtu.be/a6ZOUX5la-w?t=1992

Timestamp: 33:12





Clemson Vs Alabama, 2017 National championship game. Situation: 2nd & 10 from the Alabama 26 yard line with 0:19 left in the 4th quarter. Throw is made from the 35 yard line, approximately 1/3rd of the way inside the left hashmark. Pass is caught by TE Jordan Leggett at the Alabama 11 yard line approximately halfway between the numbers and the sideline.

Length a: 35-11 = 24 yards or 72 feet. Length b: 60’ (distance of hash to sideline) - 13’ (half the dist. Between top of numbers and sideline) + 13.33’ (1/3rd the distance inside the hashmark) = 60.33’ 72^2 * 60.33^2 = c^2 c = 93.93’ (31.31 yards)





25 hand times determined an average of approximately ~1.22 seconds of air time.





93.93/1.22 = ~52.49mph





This is but a small 2 throw sample, but I submit this data as compelling evidence that Deshaun Watson has *at least* average NFL arm strength for intermediate throws in the NFL. Deshaun certainly does not throw 49mph floaters on a routine basis, especially in clutch situations. By no means can anyone claim that he’ll have "elite" arm strength, but I hope this can assuage the general discomfort over his arm talent.

A possible explanation for the 49mph number? It was the combine. Being accurate and showing off improved mechanics and footwork may have occupied more of his preparation than displaying arm strength. After all, he doesn't need to make up for his deficiencies by "wowing" people with incredible arm strength, like Mahomes needed to do. Considering that Watson has a calm and patient demeanor and a penchant for using touch, it is possible that he took it easier (or was coached to do so by Jordan Palmer, his QB coach and brother of Carson Palmer) during the combine when he wasn’t in a live action situation.







~ TripStep