After all the hot takes and misreads and flat-out misinformation I’ve seen about Tuesday’s election in Kentucky, I want to do a quick report from on the ground in the Bluegrass. Perhaps this will help correct some of the stuff that’s out there.

Why Bevin lost

Matt Bevin lost the governorship for one simple reason:

Matt Bevin

As noted by Joe Gerth in the Courier-Journal, “Matt Bevin lost because he was a jerk.” It wasn’t because of some state-wide epiphany about terrible Republican policies; all the other Repubs on the ballot won.

So please, if you are not familiar with Bevinism (our version of Trumpism), do not try to read something into this election that isn’t there. This wasn’t a referendum on Trump, or McConnell, or even Republicans in general. It was largely about getting rid of Bevin.

Why Beshear won

On the other hand, it’s not fair to only point at Bevin in this race. We have to call out what Andy Beshear and his team did as well.

I have friends who worked in the coordinated campaign. One of them, who has worked on Kentucky campaigns for a good while, said this was by far the most professional, well-organized, and effective campaign she had ever been a part of.

Knocking a million doors is no small thing. Knowing where to spend your time, and HOW to spend your time, is no small thing. Being super disciplined in your messaging, and refusing to get drawn into the God-guns-gays strategy of Republicans, is no small thing.

Andy Beshear and company ran a superb race. While Bevin was hosting Trump at a rally with many out-of-state attendees, Beshear was on a bus tour talking to actual voters. When Bevin tried to get Beshear’s goat in the debates by calling him a liar, Beshear stayed calm and on message.

And, for many people, it was also about the issues that Beshear championed: public education, healthcare, felon voting rights. Teachers were a big part of this, as were union people.

What’s next

I also need to correct some mis-reporting about the post-election process.

First of all, there is no recount for gubernatorial elections in Kentucky. The statutes lay out the process, and specifically exempt state-wide offices from recounts.

So, the first step is a recanvass, which Bevin has already requested. This involves simply re-checking the totals from the machines and from the absentee ballots, and resubmitting those totals to the secretary of state. That process will happen on November 14.

The next step is a “contested election” – basically, filing a challenge with the state legislature. This process has been used one time: the year it was passed (1899). It was not a smooth process.

The challenge has to state clear grounds for contesting the election, including what actions it is based on. While Bevin has talked about “irregularities” and “post voter fraud,” he has not put forward any actual details.

And, based on comments from Republicans in the General Assembly, they are not too eager for Bevin to dump this in their lap. Even if he files a challenge, they may refuse to take it up.

Could they? Sure; they have super-majorities in both houses. And, the line of succession is such that the president of the Senate would be acting governor when the legislature is in session, and the attorney general would be when the legislature is out of session.

But the whirlwiind they would inherit from invalidating the election, barring any evidence of actual wrong-doing, would cause the 2020 election to become an entirely different proposition.

What to take from this

There are some lessons to take from this race, although they probably aren’t the ones most pundits (and most readers of this site) want to hear.

First, this has nothing to do with Mitch, directly. You can’t use this as some signal that Mitch is definitely going to lose, as much as we all would like to. (But, see below.)

Second, this is not, by itself, an indication that Kentucky is moving back toward blue. Remember, everyone thought Heather French Henry was a lock for secretary of state, and she lost. The top four vote-getters across the races were Republicans.

On the other hand, this race showed a level of activism and energy that Kentucky Democrats haven’t shown in a long time. It is possible that this can translate to pickups in the state legislature next year. And, it is possible that it can also translate (finally) into ditching Mitch.

And finally, as Robert Kahne points out on our site, Beshear built a win out of four distinct groups: big-city voters, small-town voters, Appalachia, and Northern Kentucky. If the KDP is smart, they will build a strategy around that. We cannot rely on our two big cities to save us; we have to re-build a statewide coalition. And we do that the way Beshear did it – by focusing on the issues affecting people in these areas, and not by just reacting to the standard Repub attacks, OR by becoming Repub-lite.

This was a significant victory, one that we are definitely celebrating in the state. We are hopeful that we can use it as a springboard for other victories in the future. Let’s just be sure we read the results correctly, and learn the right lessons from it.

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