As summer wanes, you would have to look long and hard to find a Liberal who would bet a loonie against Justin Trudeau entering the party’s leadership race.

But the near certainty of a Trudeau leadership bid is, at this moment, a double-edged sword for the floundering third party.

For some, a summer of leadership dreaming is about to crash against some autumn realities.

The party, however, is more concerned about heading off the dreaded “coronation trap.’’

Even while acknowledging Trudeau’s celebrity-status and his potential as a game-changer, those prepared to back him inevitably raise concerns about the man’s experience, gravitas and his readiness for the task of rebuilding a damaged brand.

In short, they want to see him tested under fire.

There is a fear that a Trudeau candidacy will scare off those capable of providing that test, because there is precious little upside for one of a trio of sitting MPs to spend the money needed to mount a credible campaign with the outcome pre-ordained.

As Liberals look ahead to a caucus gathering in early September, conversations with insiders are providing the early outlines of a race which will soon begin to take shape.

Trudeau, 40, is in a class of his own, but there is a second tier that is right now comprised of MPs Dominic LeBlanc, 44, of New Brunswick, 63-year-old Marc Garneau of Montreal and 52-year-old David McGuinty of Ottawa.

Just below that tier is a grouping that will include those who lost their seats in 2011 but will try to convince the party that, despite that, they should still be able to lead the party.

That tier so far is led by Martha Hall-Findlay, the former Willowdale MP who finished last in the 2006 leadership race but has hinted strongly at another bid.

Then there is a final tier that has already declared candidates Deborah Coyne, a public policy consultant, Shane Geschiere, a 32-year-old Manitoba paramedic and government economist Jonathan Mousley.

Expected candidates include George Takach, a Toronto technology lawyer and David Bertschi, who ran unsuccessfully for the party in an Ottawa-area riding last year as well as a list of others who are contemplating a run to raise their profile or strut their bona fides for later dates.

This group needs a Trudeau candidacy for cover, but also need some serious contenders or they will be ignored.

The category which is so far barren — the white knights.

Leadership of a third party with an uncertain future will not lure Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney or Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty, a couple of pipe dream candidacies that show no hints of materializing.

Of the trio of MPs who could challenge Trudeau, LeBlanc has perhaps the strongest pedigree, experience and roots in the party — if he can muster the requisite fire to take on his buddy.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

He also has more to contemplate than others.

He could run a potentially risk-free candidacy, and raise his profile nationally, but as a longtime friend of Trudeau’s with his history in the party and Atlantic Canada, he would be guaranteed a senior post in a Trudeau-run party without spending the money or expending the effort of a losing campaign.

His personal life would also take a hit — he is married to Provincial Court Judge Jolene Richard, and she would be prohibited from joining him on any campaign.

LeBlanc and Trudeau just spent a good chunk of time together while the Papineau MP and his family vacationed on the East Coast.

It was capped by a lunch Friday, and, while sometimes a lunch is just a lunch, at other times a lunch can shape the future contours of a federal leadership race.

It is too early for either man to signal any decisions made during lazy August days, but both should have made a final decision by the time Liberals gather in Montebello.

For many would be leaders, the summer dreaming of leadership has been too often clouded with nightmares of crushing debt, irrelevancy in a party coronation and the uncertain future that such a prize would bring.

No one knows what the future holds for the Liberals, whether under Trudeau’s stewardship or not.

But there is consensus that a Trudeau stumble would be disastrous if there was no one credible in the race to pick up the pieces.

Tim Harper is a national affairs writer. His column appears Monday, Wednesday and Friday. tharper@thestar.ca

Read more about: