If the American League Most Valuable Player prize were to be awarded tomorrow, an internal investigation would be launched to discover why the baseball writers jumped the gun by several weeks. But, beyond that, two Red Sox and an Angel would likely be the front-runners, while Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez would be worthy of votes, as well.

Not so fast, Baseball Writers’ Association of America! The last two AL MVPs of anything have been handed over to players wearing Houston Astros uniforms.

Second baseman Jose Altuve is the reigning AL MVP (and, in a crowded 2018 field, may receive some votes this year), and Alex Bregman won the MVP glass bat (and Mom’s new car) of the most recently played All-Star Game, slugging the winning home run.

Like the stock market, though, past performance does not guarantee future success, and that’s especially true regarding MLB awards.

Judging by their current numbers, Boston’s Mookie Betts and JD Martinez (the former Astro), Ramirez, and LA’s Mike Trout are certainly worthy of postseason hardware.

Related: Mookie Betts First Half AL MVP

With a September’s worth of games to play, it may indeed be out of the realm of probability to picture Bregman winning the league’s top prize. But, it’s far from out of the realm of possibility.

Related: Apogee Approaching: Big Numbers Propel Bregman Past Stars

The Intangibles

He’s proven he’s driven and motivated, and he’s proven his mettle in big game situations: He twice victimized Cy Young Award candidate Chris Sale of Boston in the ALDS, and went deep against the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw and fellow All-Star Kenley Jansen in the World Series.

Altuve may have paid Bregman the ultimate compliment last October in a USA Today interview: “You’re talking about a 23-year-old kid [now 24] who plays like a 30-year-old veteran. He hits homers, he steals bases. I remember when I was 23 and I wasn’t as good as him, so I feel like he’s going to be a superstar.”

“He’s not scared at all,” pitcher Justin Verlander said, sharing his views on Bregman to the same newspaper. “I think you can see in some of the defensive plays he’s made and some of the home runs he’s hit against the pitchers that he hit them against, he thrives in big moments. When the pressure is on he’s a guy you want in your corner.”

The Tangibles Through August

While Betts holds onto a .342 BA (tops in AL to Trout’s .310, which is fifth), with 29 HRs (tied for eighth, just behind Trout’s 31), 109 R (T-1st, while Trout is seventh with 88), .430 OBP (second to Trout’s .460), and a .643 slugging (second to Martinez’ .654, while Trout sits at .621 in third), he’s first in WAR with 8.9. Trout’s WAR is 8.1, Martinez has a 6.0, Ramirez 7.6, and Altuve 4.7.

Trout boasts helium-infused numbers, as he always does, but like Altuve, has missed valuable time due to injury, and with that, a chance to stay with the others in the numbers race.

Related: Altuve, Betts Duke it Out for 2016 MVP Honors

With a WAR of 6.2 (higher than Martinez’), Bregman has scored 90 runs, topping Trout, and amassed 147 hits, 25 more than Trout, and even one more than Altuve.

Bregman has hit 25 homers, six more than last year (thanks to an offseason training program, documented here), and bit off just a bit more than he could chew by participating in the All-Star Game’s Home Run Derby. This total is way behind his aforementioned challengers.

He’s holding his own in RBIs, though, as his 86 puts him into a fifth-place tie with another Boston banger, Xander Bogaerts. His .394 OBP even outpaces Altuve by a couple of points and lands him in sixth place in the league.

He’s bubbling under, too, with a .531 slugging percentage, good for #8.

And, with a .924 OPS, his sixth place puts him within stone-throwing range of the leaders (Trout, Betts, Martinez, Ramirez, and Aaron Judge, the main 2017 competition for Altuve before the latter’s win).

Bregman’s Advanced Stat X Factor

CBS Sports, getting involved themselves in MVP forecasting, recently floated the little thing called win probability added (WPA), an advanced stat component which purports to “see how much a player has moved the needle for his team on the season. At any given moment in the game, there’s a win expectancy for each team. Based upon historical trends, there’s a certain percent chance each team will win during every single hitter of the game.

“WPA doesn’t only include ‘clutch’ moments, because a first-inning multi-run home run would increase the team’s win probability by a decent margin, but it very much measures a hitter’s impact on his team’s chances of winning a game. Also, WPA isn’t a predictive stat. It does, however, tell us how we got here.”

To hear CBS tell it, the biggest WPA swing of the season makes a good illustration of this stat in its natural habitat (albeit in the other league): “The Cubs were trailing 3-0 with two outs in the ninth inning to the Nationals on August 12. The Nationals had a 90 percent chance of winning, per win expectancy, and without even thinking about the stats involved, that’s pretty reasonable, right?” Then, the lightning bolt of David Bote‘s walk-off grand slam happened: