Heatwave to end within days but Met Office says near-record sea temperatures likely to result in hotter, drier autumn

This article is more than 2 years old

This article is more than 2 years old

The UK’s warmer than average weather could last until October, although the current heatwave is only expected to last for another two days.

In a briefing for local authorities, the Met Office said that above-average temperatures were more likely than below-average ones between August and October.

Temperatures in parts of the UK were set to edge past 30C (86F) on Monday, with yet another hot day forecast for Tuesday when the mercury could reach 34C in Essex or Norfolk.

However, not all of the UK will experience clear blue skies – much of Scotland and Northern Ireland will start the week with some rain, and fresher, cooler weather is expected to stretch from the middle of the week into the weekend across the country, with maximum temperatures likely to dip to the mid-20s on Wednesday.

The Met Office has forecast that “patchy cloud and rain will affect many northern and western parts, with some heavier showers in the far north and west”, although “very warm sunshine will continue for south-eastern areas”.

It said the weather will be cooler from Wednesday, with sunshine and showers for many in a continuing theme that will bring “a risk of hail” in the north towards the weekend, and rain in the south-west.

In the longer term, the Met Office’s analysis has suggested hot, dry conditions could return and continue into the autumn.

“Sea surface temperatures close to the UK have reached near-record levels as a result of the prolonged hot and sunny weather,” it said.

“This also increases the chances of above-average UK temperatures, particularly in the early part of the forecast period.

“For August-September-October, the Met Office long-range prediction system, in agreement with systems from other prediction centres, shows an increased chance of high-pressure patterns close to the UK.”

The three-month outlook suggests a greater likelihood of high-pressure systems near the UK, meaning settled conditions are more likely than unsettled weather.

Warmer than average temperatures – 19C, 16C and 13C for August, September and October respectively – and below-average rainfall is therefore more likely.

The prediction follows a balmy weekend, as British holidaymakers headed to beaches and hundreds of thousands partied at Brighton’s annual Pride event, where Britney Spears and Nile Rogers performed.

The hottest temperature on Sunday was 30.2C, recorded in Northolt, greater London.