Two years after losing office in one term, the Victorian Coalition appears to be making the same mistake as Malcolm Turnbull: pandering to its conservative base largely at the expense of voters in the middle ground. What's more, Guy seems to be falling into the same trap that Tony Abbott did as Prime Minister: allowing himself to be defined predominantly by the things he is against, rather than having a broader vision or a positive story to tell. Perhaps this wouldn't matter too much if the Coalition hadn't vowed to be a different kind of outfit, or if Guy hadn't talked up such a big game – back in the pre-Trump days when it was fashionable to distance oneself from "Toxic Tony" and the less progressive forces within party ranks. Remember, for instance, when Guy told us he wanted the Liberals to do more to "reach out" to the gay community? Since then, the opposition has watered down same-sex adoption laws, vowed to scrap the Safe Schools program, and used its numbers to defeat the two equality bills Labor put forward in the last sitting week of parliament. Remember, too, when he seemed determined to tackle his party's gender gap by setting targets designed to boost the number of women in parliament? Since then, the Liberals have held two preselections for the safe seats of Brighton and Nepean – both of which resulted in strong female candidates being overlooked in favour of the boys and we've hardly heard a whimper.

And remember when Guy declared he wanted to reconnect with voters in regional centres such as Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong – which have been Labor strongholds for years – by "ensuring our brand is relevant, our party is relevant, and that we are keeping with the aspirations of people living in those cities"? Since then, what exactly has the opposition done to achieve those stated goals – in regional Victoria or otherwise? Getting tough on crime is clearly a top priority, but what is the plan, let's say, when it comes to lifting education standards, improving health services or investing in renewable energy? It's the kind of question Victorians will increasingly ask the closer we get to the next election in 2018. After all, Andrews hasn't exactly had a perfect few years (this week's decision to audit his ministers' phones was yet another spectacular own goal) but by the time Labor's campaign begins in earnest, there'll be enough examples of new infrastructure and services to prosecute the case for a second term. Guy's grand mission will be to convince voters that he can offer a better alternative – not just opposition for opposition's sake. Adding to this challenge is the fact that there's a culture war taking place inside the Victorian Liberals at the moment, which some fear is dragging the party further and further to the right.

In case you missed it, hardline micro parties such as Family First and the Australian Christians are being actively recruited in a bid to attract more people from the religious right. Young Turks aligned with party president Michael Kroger are targeting Mormon and Evangelical churches in a bid to boost their numbers within the Victorian branch. And sitting MPs are being challenged by pro-lifers with "extreme" views on abortion, while branch stacking, according to some insiders, is getting "out of control". As one senior Liberal put it recently: "It's horrifying. If we become a more right-wing party there is no way we will win the election." It's a fair point. Victoria remains a fairly left-leaning state compared to other jurisdictions, which partly explains why Abbott was deeply unpopular here and why Turnbull's inability to stand up to his right flank has been a gift that keeps on giving for the Andrews government. If Guy's Coalition is to have any chance of returning to office, it's not going to happen by lurching further to the right, or by saying one thing and doing another, or by being solely defined by the things they oppose. Sooner or later the opposition will have to present a credible agenda to voters in the middle, where elections tend to be won or lost. So far, such an agenda has been sorely lacking. Farrah Tomazin is The Sunday Age state political editor.