July 27, 2015

The U.S. and Turkey Have A *Something* Plan

According to several news reports the U.S. and Turkey have agreed to do something in north Syria. But there seems to be no agreement on anything else. There is disunity about the aim of something as well as on the target of any something operation. The means of achieving something are in dispute. Even the geographic space in which something is supposed to happen is undefined. The only agreed upon issue besides doing something is to throw the Kurds, the most successful force against the Islamic State so far, under the bus.

Consider all the caveats and general vagueness in the NYT report about the "agreement":

BAGHDAD — Turkey and the United States have agreed in general terms on a plan that envisions American warplanes, Syrian insurgents and Turkish forces working together to sweep Islamic State militants from a 60-mile-long strip of northern Syria along the Turkish border, American and Turkish officials say. The plan would create what officials from both countries are calling an Islamic State-free zone controlled by relatively moderate Syrian insurgents, which the Turks say could also be [...] [...] many details have yet to be determined, including how deep the strip would extend into Syria, [...]

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“Details remain to be worked out, [...] ”

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[...] the plan faces the same challenges that have long plagued American policy in Syria.

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Whatever the goal,[...] raising the question of what they will do [..]

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[...] questions also remain about which Syrian insurgents and how many will be involved in the new operation. [...] relatively moderate have been trained in a covert C.I.A. program, but on the battlefield they are often enmeshed or working in concert with more hard-line Islamist insurgents. In another complication, gains for such insurgents would come at the expense of Syrian Kurdish militias

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Turkish officials and Syrian opposition leaders are describing the agreement as something [...] But American officials say [...] it was not included in the surprise agreement reached last week

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[...] United States officials said Turks and Americans were working toward an agreement on the details of an operation [...]

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That is an ambitious military goal [...] American officials emphasized that the depth of the buffer zone to be established was one of the important operational details that had yet to be decided.

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Insurgents, as well as their supporters in the Syrian opposition and the Turkish government, are already envisioning the plan as a step toward [...]

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American officials in recent months have argued to Turkish counterparts [...]

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But until now [...]

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By contrast, the new plan [...]

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“Any weakening of ISIS will be a privilege for us on the battlefield,” Ahmad Qara Ali, a spokesman for Ahrar al-Sham, an insurgent group that often allies with the Nusra Front, Al Qaeda’s Syria affiliate. [...]

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Such Syrian Arab insurgents would gain at the expense of the People’s Protection Units, a Kurdish militia known by the initials Y.P.G. that is seeking to take the same territory from the east. While the United States views the group as one of its best partners on the ground, Turkey sees it as a threat; [...]

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[...] challenges to this border strategy still remain, American officials acknowledged. [...] American officials [...] conceded [...]

(Did we notice the new "relative moderate" category the NYT introduced here for anti-Syrian insurgents? This especially for Ahrar al Shams like ilk who are nearly indistinguishable from AlQaeda.)

The vagueness of this "agreement" lets me assume that the Turks railroaded the U.S. negotiators with their surprise announcement about the use of Incirlik airbase last week. That announcement came after a phonecall between Obama and Erdogan. Did they really agree on anything but throwing the Kurds under the bus, with Turkey now shelling their positions in Syria?

Or is this vagueness about the strategy an administration ploy to make it look as if it is dragged into its policy by an ally. If things go wrong it could then always blame Turkey for overreaching.

Or the administration intentionally committing to nothing and just giving Erdogan enough rope to hang himself?

Would the Obama administration even have the legal authority to support the "moderate" AlQaeda "rebels" with airstrikes? So far it could not name any.

Whatever.

This something plan has little chance of achieving anything but more war and chaos in Syria, Turkey and Iraq. Something will fail.

Posted by b on July 27, 2015 at 14:42 UTC | Permalink

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