Twenty eight percent of those surveyed felt the BJP was the party best equipped to provide the state with good governance while 25 percent felt the BJP could maintain law and order.

Dissatisfaction with the Akhilesh Yadav-led government in Uttar Pradesh coupled with dissatisfaction with the UPA government at the center has led to the BJP receiving a dramatic bounce in support in India’s largest state.

The stakes in Uttar Pradesh are high – with 80 seats on offer – and what a CNN-IBN/Hindu poll showed is that BJP is on the rebound thanks to remarkable mismanagement of the state by the Samajwadi Party. Just 29 percent of the respondents surveyed said they were satisfied with the government, while 45 percent said crime had increased and 51 percent felt hooliganism had increased.

“Akhilesh is writing a text book in how to lose popularity during the honeymoon period after an election,” Yogendra Yadav, a senior fellow at the Center for the Study of Developing Societies. “Something is terribly wrong there.”

Yadav was one of the members of a panel analysing the poll data on CNN-IBN. The other panel members were Sandeep Shastri, the Vice Chancellor of Jain University in Bangalore, Journalist Swapan Dasgupta, Professor Ramachandra Guha, author of India after Gandhi and Siddarth Varadarajan, editor-in-chief of The Hindu. They were also joined by Sharad Pradhan, a senior journalist from Uttar Pradesh.

According to Pradhan, Akhilesh should not shoulder the lion’s share of the SP’s debacle because Akhilesh is not in control of the state. There are “five and a half chief ministers in UP, with Akhilesh reduced to half,” Pradhan said. The existence of multiple power centers means no one person can currently exert control over law and order in the state, resulting in a worsening law and order situation.

The result is that 28 percent of those surveyed felt the BJP was the party best equipped to provide the state with good governance while 25 percent felt the BJP could maintain law and order. The corresponding numbers for the Congress were just 13 percent and 11 percent respectively, while the BSP were picked by 19 percent and 22 percent of respondents.

“The difference between Mayawati and Akhilesh – it is not as if Mayawati was not patronising goondas. But she was supreme. Not even the worst of the criminals could dominate her. In Akhilesh’s case, people are lords unto themselves.”

The panelists felt meanwhile, that the blame for the Congress’ poor numbers in the state must lie with the Gandhi family.

“The Gandhi must take total responsibility because they are elected from there, Guha said. “But look at the way the party is run. The state party leader has mostly been a cipher. To revive the party, you need hard, patient grassroots work. Not being done by Rahul or anyone else.”

According to Varadarajan, Rahul Gandhi and the Congress party were irrelevant in the emerging political reality of Uttar Pradesh. “The big story is the double-push that BJP is going to get from the public dissatisfaction with the UPA in the center and the dissatisfaction with the SP in the state just 18 months after state elections.

“It does not surprise me that the BJP is the most attractive option given this limited field,” he said.

The poll showed the BJP were the party of choice of 27 percent respondents, which the projections showed translates into 29 to 33 seats. The BJP won just 10 seats in UP in the 2009 election.

The growing polarisation in the state, particularly in western UP, could also help the BJP, the panelists felt. “I think there has been a substantial degree of polaristion which has already taken place in western UP,” Dasgupta said. But he was also worried that there was a danger in such good news for the BJP so early.

“Even the mere sight of these figures could enter the SP and Cong could enter into an understanding,” he said. “These figures will frighten them. It will propel an understanding, covert or overt.”

The question of the best way for the BJP to take advantage of this situation and increase their advantage came down to whether Narendra Modi would or should run on a good governance platform or a Hindutva one. In a state where 23 percent of voters were undecided, the “strategy you will follow will be critical,” said Shastri.

Guha said that UP had also been beset by the politics of fear rather than the politics of hope so for him, the issue of the campaign was about more than just how the BJP could maximise their advantage.

‘It is the question of the plural fabric of this country. I hope that the BJP talks only of good governance and does not step foot in Ayodhya.”

However, everyone agreed that the Ayodhya issue was not a factor and if anyone tried to make it an issue, they would get no reward. “In Uttar Pradesh, it is going to be an appeal of Modi in terms of electing a good government at the centre,” Dasgupta said.

Meanwhile Sharad argued what the poll overlooked is that “word is being spread around [in UP] and a large number of people believe, that Congress is going overboard to appease Muslims and so is Muyalam [Singh Yadav].”

Sharad said that Muyalam is banking on the Muslim vote and that is why an alliance with the Congress makes sense, because if they split the Muslim vote, it would go against them.

There was some disagreement about whether Modi’s standing from Benares would send out a Hindutva message, but there was no disagreement that UP was hugely important for both national parties in the next election.

“Uttar Pradesh looks even more important than it usually does. In the next four months, even a few points changing from this side to that side would have a big impact.”