The economy is expected to have added 165,000 jobs in July, a drop of about 60,000 from June and possibly the start of a more moderate hiring trend as the economy edges toward full employment.

The jobs report, the most important data of the month, is being released Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, capping a week that saw the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in more than a decade and wild swings in financial markets.

But with expectations for Fed rate cutting tethered more to the issues of trade war uncertainties, global economic weakness and low inflation, the jobs report is unlikely to have much market impact unless it is surprisingly weak.

"If the number is good, so let's say 175,000 or something closer to 200,000, that's not really going to change the Fed's thinking because the Fed already sees labor in a good place and households in a good spot," said Michael Gapen, chief economist at Barclays. "A strong number doesn't really change anything, but obviously a weak number would."

The Fed cut rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, its first rate cut since December 2008. The markets were disappointed by comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that the cut was not part of a longer-term rate- cutting cycle. Even so, the bond market moved dramatically to price in lower rates Thursday, as inflation expectations fell. The downward move picked up even more steam after President Donald Trump threatened more tariffs on China.

The fed funds futures market went from pricing in just over 50% odds of a September hike Thursday morning to nearly 100% by Thursday afternoon.

Gapen said he expects 165,000 new jobs, and the lower number reflects a payback from manufacturing and government sector payroll growth, which where higher than expected in June. He also expects the unemployment rate to decline to 3.6% from 3.7% and average hourly wages to rise by 0.2%. Job growth for the three months ending in June averaged 171,000.