The Final Four is nearly here, and FiveThirtyEight’s Neil Paine is hard at work trying to figure out just how the games may go. According to FiveThirtyEight’s March Madness predictions, Oregon has close to a 50-50 shot at beating the Tar Heels while South Carolina will have to defy our numbers once again in order to advance. In the video above, Neil highlights key factors in each matchup that could contribute to victories for the underdogs and more drama in Phoenix.