Keep tweeting out those #300Club scores. It’s getting fun to watch the Army dominate some Twitter feeds. I haven’t been as active this week due to kids being on Spring Break. But, I did learn something I wanted to point out yesterday afternoon.

My daughter struggles some with history. She’s kind of a science girl. As we were cruising through a history book trying to break things down (research her slate) and budget her time (get a feel for where she should allocate her resources), we started talking about history (previous games and player production). As we poured over her text (Vegas Lines) and looked at her notes (DvP and pace/point up charts), some things started to materialize (weaknesses we could exploit).

History (past stats) may not be a guaranteed indicator of the future, but it certainly can point out things likely to repeat themselves. In history, we learned about Rome and WWII and the political and economical ramifications they brought. We learned what caused those events and possibly how we could have handled ourselves better. This “education” is supposed to help us learn our mistakes so we don’t make them again. Problem is that history often gets forgotten; swallowed up by the immediate present. And, then, history starts to repeat itself.

DFS is the same in a way. We can learn from past stats that player X does well vs Team A. We learn to roster him when his price dips below a certain point because he has brought value in the past. We use this experience to help us build a better roster than the new guy that doesn’t know this stuff yet. However, we can also get so consumed by the immediate present that we lose focus on what we’ve learned and the patterns we can look to when trying to predict an outcome. We try and apply new strategies and techniques; sometimes when we don’t need to. This serves to muddy the waters and overcomplicate things.

I hope my daughter realized history is a guide, not a predictor. I hope she realized history is a tool to help her future. I hope she realized she needs to study it in order to apply it. I hope she realized experience is just patience and process. I hope in writing these articles, you see that the same can be true in DFS. You can only learn from the past if you understand what the pattern tells you, and can apply it to your future process. All that said…….

Fall in, soldiers!! This process isn’t intended to take long. It’s a skim, if you will. You are starting your research by quickly glancing over the day’s slate and gathering your early intel. Our goal is to give you a head start on today’s action. Keith and I will be back later with picks and analysis for the slate for our VIP Insiders, as well as provide answers to questions as much as possible in the VIP Slack channels.

Daily Fantasy Players are priced by many factors. Some of the key factors are the teams’ seasonal averages in points scored and the pace at which they play. We can assume if a team is expected to score more points than they usually do, players from that team are in a better than usual spot to succeed. We can also assume if a team is expected to play at a faster pace than usual, their players are in a better than usual spot to succeed.

VEGAS LINES – It honestly all starts here. 200 is the standard for a game in which we can expect fantasy goodness to appear. But, a lot more factors come into play, too. We don’t try to predict blowouts, but red spreads indicate the possibility. I will also add the NBA is changing. Last season, there may have been one game total over 230. This season, we have already seen more than ever. 190 totals are becoming more uncommon than common. We may revisit the magical 200 someday and call it 215. Either way, I am targeting the highest few games on any slate, regardless of the totals. I use this graphic as a guide.

Road Team Home Team Favorite Spread Total Tip-Off Atlanta Hawks (41-30) at Washington Wizards (35-35) ATL -1 209 7:00 PM Toronto Raptors (48-21) at Boston Celtics (41-30) TBD TBD TBD 7:30 PM Orlando Magic (29-41) at Detroit Pistons (37-34) DET -7 209 7:30 PM Utah Jazz (34-36) at Houston Rockets (35-35) HOU -3.5 200 8:00 PM Sacramento Kings (27-43) at Minnesota Timberwolves (22-48) MIN -2.5 223.5 8:00 PM Milwaukee Bucks (30-41) at Cleveland Cavaliers (50-20) CLE -11 206.5 8:00 PM New York Knicks (28-43) at Chicago Bulls (36-33) TBD TBD TBD 8:00 PM Miami Heat (40-29) at San Antonio Spurs (59-11) SA -11.5 196 8:30 PM Philadelphia 76ers (9-62) at Denver Nuggets (29-42) DEN -10.5 212.5 9:00 PM Los Angeles Lakers (14-55) at Phoenix Suns (19-51) PHO -4.5 210 10:00 PM Los Angeles Clippers (43-26) at Golden State Warriors (63-7) GS -10 225.5 10:30 PM Dallas Mavericks (35-35) at Portland Trail Blazers (36-35) POR -6 214.5 10:30 PM

POINTED UP! – The teams with green numbers for +/- PPG (Points Per Game) are expected to outperform their seasonal scoring averages per Vegas. Teams with red are expected to under-perform.

Team Offense Opponent Team Total PPG Team +/- Toronto Raptors BOS TBD 103 TBD New York Knicks CHI TBD 98.5 TBD Chicago Bulls NY TBD 101.8 TBD Boston Celtics TOR TBD 106 TBD Denver Nuggets PHI 111.5 102.3 9.2 Phoenix Suns LAL 107.3 100.2 7.1 Detroit Pistons ORL 108 102.1 5.9 Portland Trail Blazers DAL 110.3 104.5 5.8 Los Angeles Lakers PHO 102.8 97.7 5.1 Cleveland Cavaliers MIL 108.8 103.9 4.8 Sacramento Kings MIN 110.5 106.4 4.1 Philadelphia 76ers DEN 101 96.9 4.1 Los Angeles Clippers GS 107.8 104.6 3.2 Golden State Warriors LAC 117.8 115.3 2.5 Atlanta Hawks WAS 105 102.6 2.4 Minnesota Timberwolves SAC 113 101.7 11.3 Dallas Mavericks POR 104.3 102.9 1.3 Washington Wizards ATL 104 103.2 0.8 Utah Jazz HOU 98.3 97.8 0.5 Orlando Magic DET 101 100.8 0.2 Miami Heat SA 92.3 99.3 -7.1 Houston Rockets UTA 101.8 106.1 -4.3 Milwaukee Bucks CLE 97.8 99.1 -1.3 San Antonio Spurs MIA 103.8 104.3 -0.5

PACED UP! – Similar to being pointed up, the teams in green should be playing faster than normal while the teams in red should be playing slower. More possessions might mean more opportunity to score points.

Team Offense Opponent Pace Proj. Pace Pace +/- Minnesota Timberwolves SAC 97.5 101.6 4.1 Los Angeles Clippers GS 98.2 102.1 3.9 Toronto Raptors BOS 95.4 98.5 3.1 Los Angeles Lakers PHO 98 100.3 2.3 Atlanta Hawks WAS 99.1 101.4 2.3 Denver Nuggets PHI 98.3 100.4 2.1 Utah Jazz HOU 93.4 95.3 1.9 Washington Wizards ATL 100.4 101.4 1 New York Knicks CHI 95.9 96.6 0.7 Philadelphia 76ers DEN 100.2 100.4 0.2 Golden State Warriors LAC 102 102.1 0.1 Phoenix Suns LAL 100.4 100.3 -0.1 Detroit Pistons ORL 97.6 97.5 -0.1 Dallas Mavericks POR 96.8 96.6 -0.2 Orlando Magic DET 98 97.5 -0.5 Sacramento Kings MIN 102.2 101.6 -0.6 Portland Trail Blazers DAL 97.9 96.6 -1.3 Cleveland Cavaliers MIL 95.4 93.8 -1.6 Miami Heat SA 95.7 93.9 -1.8 Chicago Bulls NY 98.8 96.6 -2.2 San Antonio Spurs MIA 96.3 93.9 -2.4 Boston Celtics TOR 101.2 98.5 -2.7 Milwaukee Bucks CLE 96.5 93.8 -2.7 Houston Rockets UTA 100 95.3 -4.7

TOTAL FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED & DvP RANKINGS – This graphic provides a quick glance at how strong or weak a defensive team plays overall, as well as against a specific position. We are looking for green numbers and trying to avoid red numbers, and we are looking to roster a player from the OPPONENT’s team in the 2nd column. Example, the PHX PG is, theoretically, in great spot.

Team Defense Opponent TotalFPA vs. PG vs. SG vs. SF vs. PF vs. C Los Angeles Lakers Phoenix 30 30 28 28 19 28 Philadelphia 76ers Denver 29 27 17 29 28 30 Sacramento Kings Minnesota 28 22 29 23 30 19 Houston Rockets Utah 27 13 24 30 29 20 Phoenix Suns L.A. Lakers 26 29 30 27 16 11 Chicago Bulls New York 25 28 15 26 23 24 Denver Nuggets Philadelphia 23 17 27 18 25 13 Milwaukee Bucks Cleveland 21 6 25 24 18 22 Orlando Magic Detroit 20 19 5 17 22 15 Dallas Mavericks Portland 19 14 14 8 27 16 Minnesota Timberwolves Sacramento 18 21 22 19 12 7 Portland Trail Blazers Dallas 17 25 19 4 21 26 Golden State Warriors L.A. Clippers 15 26 11 12 15 21 Atlanta Hawks Washington 14 5 21 13 14 23 Washington Wizards Atlanta 13 15 17 25 7 8 Boston Celtics Toronto 12 1 10 22 26 27 New York Knicks Chicago 11 18 16 8 6 18 Los Angeles Clippers Golden State 8 7 6 11 10 17 Detroit Pistons Orlando 7 10 7 5 13 9 Miami Heat San Antonio 5 2 3 16 4 6 Toronto Raptors Boston 4 3 12 6 5 10 Cleveland Cavaliers Milwaukee 3 16 8 3 1 1 Utah Jazz Houston 2 8 2 2 2 2 San Antonio Spurs Miami 1 4 1 1 3 3

Another easy thing to watch is exhaustion control. Many coaches will rest players on the 2nd half of consecutive games. Basketball can take it’s toll and coaches need to keep their players fresh when they can. Players playing back to back games become prime targets for rest or limited minutes, obviously hurting their fantasy production and value to us. We further watch for situations like 3 games in 4 nights or the dreaded 4 games in 5 nights. We also watch traveling teams with particular interest.

BACK 2 BACKS! – Graphics containing teams we should watch for limited minutes and/or rest days. Maybe hard to see the colors, but yellow is caution, orange is a little more caution, and red is just crazy.

Team B2B 2of3 3of4 4of5 Atlanta Boston Yes Brooklyn Charlotte Yes Yes Yes Chicago Cleveland Dallas Denver Detroit Golden State Houston Indiana L.A. Clippers L.A. Lakers Memphis Yes Yes Yes Miami Milwaukee Yes Minnesota New Orleans Yes New York Oklahoma City Orlando Yes Philadelphia Yes Phoenix Portland Sacramento Yes San Antonio Toronto Utah Washington

If you made it this far and appreciate the tips and snippits of advice you are getting, you might want to see/learn more. For information on joining the VIP Insiders, click HERE! You will gain access to:

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Bankroll Challenge rolling results since Feb 22, 2016…..

Date Score Money IN Money Out Profit/Loss Adjusted Bankroll Tues – 8 222.7 6 0 -6 128.9 Wed – 9a 300 7 2.3 -4.7 124.2 Wed – 9b 321.2 7 12.1 5.1 129.3 Thrus – 10 301.5 8 4 -4 125.3 Fri – 11a 279.1 12 2.5 -9.5 115.8 Fri – 11b 336.6 9 30.2 21.2 137 Fri – 18 162.5 Mon – 21 260.2 13 4.2 -8.8 153.7 Tues – 22 n/a n/a n/a n/a 153.7

This Morning Briefing article, again, is not the end-all be-all when it comes to analyzing a slate. This is a first glance to identify targets we may want to dive deeper into. You may, in fact, choose a player in a poor DvP matchup due to other indicators, especially on a short slate night. Don’t overthink this stuff. The concept is to put your players in the best spots to be successful and roll them out. Keith and I will be back later to provide the VIP Insiders with more in-depth player analysis and specific picks for tonight. And, of course, the cheatsheets…… (Remembering, of course, cheatsheets come out on slates 5 games and larger.)