2016 Tour Down Under Stage 3 Preview

THE ROUTE

It’s all about Corkscrew Road today, the climb of 2.5km at 9% is the most difficult challenge at the Tour thus year, and is certainly steep and long enough for the pure climbers to get separation and a gap that could be held until the finish 6km later in Campbelltown.

THE FAVOURITES

A totally different set of riders will look to light it up today, and as such these predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.

The major favourites must be Richie Porte (BMC) and Rohan Dennis (BMC), both can win the stage solo with their ability to hold a gap going downhill and on the flat, and whoever is chosen as the leader on the road will have a very good domestique setting the pace before and inevitable attack.

Team Sky’s challenge should come from Sergio Henao, with Geraint Thomas looking to be lacking form somewhat, the Colombian rider has the acceleration to jump away on the climb harder than anyone else. Pozzovivo (AG2R) could also win in a similar situation, and other outside chances include Arredondo (Trek) and Machado (Katusha).

Riders who could hang on to small group going over the climb and win a small finish, as unlikely as that scenario seems to be include the leader McCarthy (Tinkoff), Gerrans (OGE) and Vakoc (EQS).

A break could certainly make it today, with many riders sitting up during the finale yesterday and some of the major teams looking to palm off bonus seconds to minimise the damage to their GC leaders.

***** -

**** Porte, Dennis

*** Ser. Henao

** Pozzovivo, Arredondo, The Break

*Gerrans, McCarthy, Vakoc

THE INTRIGUE

Who and when? Corkscrew Road will inevitably bring attacks, but the difference between a small group making it and a solo attack exploding the peloton near the bottom can not be stressed enough. The leader McCarthy and major favourite Gerrans will be hoping the action gets started as late as possible but whether that happens is down to how the pure climbers feel on the day.

ONWARDS

This is the biggest day for the GC fight, as those who find Willunga Hill too easy to create gaps will need to go today. Henao and Pozzovivo’s GC hope can cetainly be pinned on today, as without a gap they won’t be able to shield themselves from Gerrans and co. and their inevitable bonus seconds, that could even crop up in Victor Harbor.

For some riders this will prove a decent test of their form on short and sharp climbs, and with these climbs coming up in Paris-Nice and the Ardennes for example, we should see their best effort as they compete for team spots or leadership.