Posted by Gail the Actuary on May 18, 2010 - 12:36pm

I listened to a press conference with NOAA administrators this morning regarding the possibility of oil from the oil spill getting into the Loop Current. Some of the takeaways from the press conference:

1. While tar balls have been found in the Florida Keys, test have not yet been performed to determine whether they are from BP's oil spill. They might be from another source.

2. Any oil that does get into the Loop Current will be very dilute and weathered, by the time it gets to Florida. If oil does go this far, tar balls would be typical of the kind of hydrocarbons one would expect, by the time the oil gets this far.

3. The vast majority of the oil in the oil slick is "dozens of miles" from the Loop Current. What is relatively close is the very tip of a tendril of light oil slick extending to the south. According to a map on the NOAA website (shown below the fold), "Ocean models indicate that the band of oil sheens along the souther edge of the plume which is in a counterclockwise eddy could enter the northeastern edge of the Loop Current."