The Golden Globes kick off a new decade in television with a battle of the streaming titans – Netflix leads with 17 nominations in television – featuring some of film’s pre-eminent names, from Meryl Streep to Reese Witherspoon to Michael Douglas. The Emmys have already anointed Fleabag, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel and Chernobyl, but it’s unclear if their reign will continue at the Globes, which are notoriously difficult to predict. Game of Thrones is nowhere to be seen and with several freshman shows (The Morning Show, The Politician) represented, it’s a new era of TV – and could be anyone’s game.

Best limited series or TV movie

Jared Harris in HBO’s Chernobyl. Photograph: AP

Nominated: Catch-22 (Hulu), Chernobyl (HBO), Fosse/Verdon (FX), The Loudest Voice (Showtime), Unbelievable (Netflix).

The biggest story of this category is arguably the snub of Ava DuVernay’s When They See Us, her limited series on the Central Park Five for Netflix, in favor of less-feted series The Loudest Voice (on Roger Ailes and sexual harassment at Fox News) and George Clooney’s adaptation of Catch-22. DuVernay’s main competition at this year’s Emmys, HBO’s Chernobyl, remains represented at the Globes and is likely to take home a well-deserved win for brutal history told compellingly. That is, if there isn’t an upset from Netflix’s surprise hit Unbelievable or the well-acted Fosse/Verdon.

Will win: Chernobyl

Should win: Chernobyl

Best actor (female) in a limited series or TV movie

Michelle Williams as Gwen Verdon in FX’s Fosse/Verdon. Photograph: Eric Liebowitz/BBC/FX

Nominated: Kaitlyn Dever, Unbelievable; Joey King, The Act; Helen Mirren, Catherine the Great; Merritt Wever, Unbelievable; Michelle Williams, Fosse/Verdon.

This race is tough to call as it’s stacked with both established and new talent, from Helen Mirren as Catherine the Great to a breakout turn by Joey King in The Act. The odds probably favor the critical darling Michelle Williams, who already won an Emmy (and delivered the night’s best speech) for her take on Gwen Verdon. But the Globes are known to anoint a surprise newcomer, which bodes well for Kaitlyn Dever, whose gutting portrayal as disbelieved rape survivor Marie in Netflix’s Unbelievable was truly remarkable, or her co-star Merritt Wever, whose warm, empathetic good cop was one of the series’ aces.

Will win: Michelle Williams, Fosse/Verdon

Should win: Kaitlyn Dever, Unbelievable

Best actor (male) in a limited series or TV movie

Sam Rockwell as Bob Fosse in FX’s Fosse/Verdon. Photograph: Michael Parmelee/AP

Nominated: Christopher Abbott, Catch-22; Sacha Baron Cohen, The Spy; Russell Crowe, The Loudest Voice; Jared Harris, Chernobyl; Sam Rockwell, Fosse/Verdon.

As with the best actress race, the best actor in a limited series or TV movie is difficult to call, but more for lack of a standout than tough competition. The Hollywood Foreign Press could go on an outside chance with Christopher Abbott’s solid starring turn in Catch-22, or Borat star Sacha Baron Cohen’s pivot to a serious dramatic role in the Spy, or Russell Crowe’s heavily prostheticized take on Roger Ailes in The Loudest Voice. But it’s likely to come down to the Emmy-nominated stars of two of the more lauded miniseries this year: Jared Harris in Chernobyl and Sam Rockwell as Bob Fosse in Fosse/Verdon. (The Emmy went to Jharrel Jerome of When They See Us, snubbed here.)

Will win: Sam Rockwell, Fosse/Verdon

Should win: Sam Rockwell, Fosse/Verdon

Best supporting actor (female) in a series, limited series or TV movie

Meryl Streep in Big Little Lies. Photograph: HBO

Nominated: Patricia Arquette, The Act; Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown; Toni Collette, Unbelievable; Meryl Streep, Big Little Lies; Emily Watson, Chernobyl.

In a category full of established, beloved talent, it could be anyone’s game – the Hollywood Foreign Press loves an off-chance win and could go with Toni Collette’s steely performance as a rape detective in Unbelievable or Emily Watson’s take on a nuclear physicist searching for truth in Chernobyl. Never discount voters’ love for The Crown (and Helena Bonham Carter’s takeover of the role of Princess Margaret) but this award seems likely to head to a shelf with other trophies – Patricia Arquette won best actress in a limited series last year for Escape from Dannemora, and her deeply studied performance as real-life Munchausen-by-proxy patient Dee Dee Blanchard holds the series together. But we’ll give the edge to the one and only Meryl Streep, whose 34th (!) nomination for her scene (and meme) stealing guest role on Big Little Lies breaks her own record.

Will win: Meryl Streep, Big Little Lies

Should win: Patricia Arquette, The Act

Best supporting actor (male) in a series, limited series or TV movie

Andrew Scott as the Hot Priest in Fleabag. Photograph: Luke Varley/BBC/Two Brothers

Nominated: Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method; Kieran Culkin, Succession; Andrew Scott, Fleabag; Stellan Skarsgård, Chernobyl; Henry Winkler, Barry.

Sorry Alan Arkin (The Kominsky Method) and Stellan Skarsgård (Chernobyl), but there are three clear frontrunners here: Kieran Culkin as smarmy younger-son Roman Roy on Succession, Henry Winkler’s much-lauded acting coach on Barry, and Andrew “Hot Priest” Scott for Fleabag. There are cases to be made for each actor – Culkin’s breakout second season on Succession has earned deserved praise, and Winkler was the favorite to win last year (Ben Whishaw won instead for A Very English Scandal) – but this is the year of Fleabag, and there’s no second season of Phoebe Waller-Bridge’s critical darling without the Hot Priest.

Will win: Andrew Scott, Fleabag

Should win: Andrew Scott, Fleabag

Best actor (female) in a TV series – drama

Jennifer Aniston in Apple TV Plus’s the Morning Show. Photograph: AP

Nominated: Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show; Olivia Colman, The Crown; Jodie Comer, Killing Eve; Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies; Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show.

The drift from film stardom to prestige TV reaches high tide in this category, with three Hollywood mainstays holding court in TV land: Nicole Kidman (Big Little Lies), Reese Witherspoon and Jennifer Aniston for The Morning Show (not to mention Oscar winner Olivia Colman for the Crown). The Morning Show has its detractors, though most have praised Aniston’s performance as the chastened morning news anchor Alex Levy; it’s the most interesting work she’s done in years, which should be enough to seal her the win, though it should go to Comer, who already took home an Emmy this season for her beguiling, baffling (in the best way) performance as hitwoman Villanelle on Killing Eve.

Will win: Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show

Should win: Jodie Comer, Killing Eve

Best actor in a TV series – drama

This image released by FX shows Billy Porter in a scene from “Pose.” On Monday, Dec. 9, 2019, Porter was nominated for a Golden Globe for best actor in a drama series. (JoJo Whilden/FX via AP) Photograph: JoJo Whilden/AP

Nominated: Brian Cox, Succession; Kit Harington, Game of Thrones; Rami Malek, Mr Robot; Tobias Menzies, The Crown; Billy Porter, Pose.

Billy Porter is the only returning nominee in this category (won last year by Richard Madden for Bodyguard) and is probably the favorite for his showstopping turn in Pose, though Rami Malek could give him a run for his money with a third nomination for Mr Robot (he’s already won the Globe for best actor in a movie last year for Bohemian Rhapsody). It’s the Globes, though, so don’t count out the trio of Brits: Brian Cox as patriarch (and single best deliverer of the line “fuck off”) Logan Roy in Succession, Tobias Menzies as Prince Philip in The Crown, and “loner throner” Kit Harington’s final season as Jon Snow.

Will win: Billy Porter, Pose

Should win: Billy Porter, Pose

Best actor (female) in a TV series – musical or comedy

Kirsten Dunst in Showtime’s On Becoming A God In Central Florida. Photograph: Liz Von Hoene/Showtime

Nominated: Christina Applegate, Dead to Me; Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel; Kirsten Dunst, On Becoming a God in Central Florida; Natasha Lyonne, Russian Doll; Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag.

Two-time defending champ Rachel Brosnahan returns again for Mrs Maisel, which is never short of awards-season love, though a three-peat seems unlikely, as does a win for Christina Applegate’s return to TV with Dead to Me. More promising is critical love for Natasha Lyonne in Russian Doll and Kirsten Dunst’s plucky 90s MLM-schemer in the under-seen On Becoming A God In Central Florida. But given the omnipresence of Fleabag this season, the edge here goes to Phoebe Waller-Bridge.

Will win: Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag

Should win: Kirsten Dunst, On Becoming a God in Central Florida

Best actor in a TV Series – Musical or Comedy

Paul Rudd in Netflix’s Living with Yourself. Photograph: Eric Liebowitz/AP

Nominated: Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method; Bill Hader, Barry; Ben Platt, The Politician; Paul Rudd, Living with Yourself; Ramy Youssef, Ramy.

This year sees two newcomers from wildly different series: Ben Platt in Ryan Murphy’s bombastic The Politician and Ramy Youssef, creator and star of a Hulu series based on his experience growing up as a Muslim Egyptian American in New Jersey. Odds, though, tip in favor of the veterans; last year’s winner Michael Douglas returns with another nod for The Kominsky Method, and could snag a repeat if not for the critical love behind Bill Hader’s Barry or general belovedness of one Paul Rudd, playing multiple parts on Living with Yourself.

Will win: Paul Rudd, Living with Yourself

Should win: Bill Hader, Barry

Best television series – musical or comedy

Phoebe Waller-Bridge in Fleabag. Photograph: Luke Varley/BBC/Two Brothers

Previous winners The Kominsky Method (2019) and The Marvelous Mrs Maisel (2018) could nab another win here (as could HBO’s Barry or the critically divisive yet starry freshman season of The Politican – it’s the Globes) but let’s be real: this is the year of Fleabag. After a buzzy second season and Hot Priest discourse snowballed into a major triumph at the Emmys, a Vogue cover for creator and star Phoebe Waller-Bridge, and numerous best-of accolades, Fleabag’s it-girl-ness makes picking the British dark comedy less of a risk for the Golden Globes. Waller-Bridge is a star AND has zeitgeist genius credentials – an excellent awards show combo – but that doesn’t diminish from the true revelation that was Fleabag season two.

Will win: Fleabag

Should win: Fleabag

Best television series – drama

Shailene Woodley, Zoë Kravitz, Reese Witherspoon, Nicole Kidman and Laura Dern in the second season of Big Little Lies. Photograph: HBO

Nominated: Big Little Lies, The Crown, Killing Eve, The Morning Show, Succession.

With the wrap of last year’s winner, The Americans, and only one returning contender, the consistently good (if under-awarded, as a show) Killing Eve, this category could go anywhere, even perhaps to the very uneven (if entertaining) freshman season of The Morning Show. But the edge belongs to heavyweight Big Little Lies’ second season, though it should go to Succession’s consistently brilliant sophomore effort, which boasts perhaps the best ensemble cast on TV.

Will win: Big Little Lies (HBO)

Should win: Succession (HBO)