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I thought I would update all of you on the current Delegate Math for the Republican nomination.

I want to highlight the sheer improbability of a Cruz 1,237 scenario. The way the media and the Cruz team has been portraying his chances as a underdog on the upswing is totally and completely false. He’s running on fumes. Ted Cruz is literally almost eliminated mathematically from getting to 1,237 delegates.

I will repeat this again: Ted Cruz is literally almost eliminated mathematically from getting to 1,237 delegates.

The Current Situation on State Wins:

Delegates Remaining: 805

Delegate Math:

Current Delegates

Trump 752 Cruz 464 Kasich 144

Current Pledged Delegates Needed to Win:

Trump 485 (60%) Cruz 773 (97%) Kasich 1,093 (134%)

Current Pledged/Unpledged/Unbound Delegates Needed to Win:

Trump 485 (48%) Cruz 773 (83%) Kasich 1,093 (118%)





So there is a projected unbound/unpledged delegate count of around 116 delegates. These delegates will decide who they support at the convention. This includes all the unbound North Dakota, Guam, Virgin Islands, and American Samoa delegates. This also includes the 54 CD delegates from Pennsylvania and a few in Louisiana/Wyoming/Oklahoma.





If Trump wins all of New York’s delegates, he effectively eliminates Cruz from the pledged delegate game. Even in the best case scenario, Cruz takes all of Wisconsin’s delegates. He would also take all of Colorado’s and all of Wyoming’s delegates. And Trump will still eliminated him in New York.





The only hope Cruz has at that point is to win every single remaining pledged delegate. He also has to hope to God that he wins every single unpledged/unbound delegate.





The problem: after the next three contests in Cruz friendly territory and Trump’s home state of New York, we head to the rest of the northeastern states. These states are heavily favored Trump territory. These will award Trump with even more delegates. And even worse, most are winner take all or a form of winner take all, which further denies Cruz delegates. In fact, after 4/26 northeastern primaries, Ted Cruz is likely to be completely eliminated and will only be in the race to deny Trump delegates as a #NeverTrump establishment supporter.





Again, after 4/26, Ted Cruz outs himself as an establishment sleeper agent. He will effectively be in favor of Paul Ryan or Jeb Bush to be parachuted into the nomination at the convention. Cruz, along with John Kasich, will be directly responsible for the destruction of the Republican Party. And the election of Hillary Clinton.

State Date Type Allocation Method Voter Access Threshold Requirement Winner Take All If >50% At Large Delegates (AL) Congressional District Delegates (CD) North Dakota 04/01/16 Convention Convention Closed NO N/A 25 3 Wisconsin 04/05/16 Primary Winner Take All CD/ At Large Open NO N/A 18 24 Colorado 04/09/16 Convention District Convention Closed NO N/A 37 0 Wyoming 04/16/16 Convention District Convention Closed NO N/A 17 0 New York 04/19/16 Primary Proportional At Large/ Winner Take Most C-District Closed 20.00% YES 11 81 Connecticut 04/26/16 Primary Proportional At Large/ Winner Take All CD Closed 20.00% YES 13 15 Delaware 04/26/16 Primary Winner Take All CD/ At Large Closed NO N/A 16 0 Maryland 04/26/16 Primary Winner Take All CD/ At Large Closed NO N/A 14 24 Pennsylvania 04/26/16 Primary Winner Take All At Large/ CD Delegate Election Closed NO N/A 14 54 Rhode Island 04/26/16 Primary Proportional At Large/ Winner Take Most C-District Open I/R 10.00% N/A 13 6 Indiana 05/03/16 Primary Winner Take All CD/ At Large Open NO N/A 30 27 Nebraska 05/10/16 Primary Winner Take All Open NO N/A 36 0 West Virginia 05/10/16 Primary At Large/ CD Delegate Election Open I/R NO N/A 25 9 Oregon 05/17/16 Primary Proportional Closed NO NO 28 0 Washington 05/27/16 Primary Proportional At Large/ Winner Take Most C-District Closed 20.00% NO 14 30 California 06/07/16 Primary Winner Take All CD/ At Large Closed NO N/A 10 159 Montana 06/07/16 Caucus Winner Take All Closed NO N/A 27 0 New Jersey 06/07/16 Primary Winner Take All Open I/R NO N/A 51 0 New Mexico 06/07/16 Primary Proportional Closed NO 24 0 South Dakota 06/07/16 Primary Winner Take All Closed NO N/A 29 0