The 2020 contender’s poll ratings have fallen – but the raucous mood on Tuesday night suggested talk of her demise is rash

In recent weeks, Elizabeth Warren has tumbled from frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination to fourth in the polls, prompting questions about whether she peaked too soon in what has been a tumultuous race. But if the mood at a raucous rally in New York on Tuesday is anything to go by, talk of the Massachusetts senator’s demise is premature.

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Warren took the stage at Kings Theatre, a grand 1920s venue in Brooklyn, following a rousing speech from Julián Castro, who ended his own presidential campaign on Thursday and endorsed Warren on Monday.

It was Castro’s first appearance as a Warren surrogate, and amid chants of “Warren! Warren!” he recalled that during his own campaign he would run into the same problem when trying to win over voters: they had already decided to vote for the woman he has now endorsed.

Warren had jogged to the stage from the back of the theater, high-fiving people as she passed, like a triumphant athlete. She was forced to start her speech on a sombre note, however, as news of Iran launching missiles at US forces had broken minutes earlier.

“This is a reminder why we need to de-escalate tension in the Middle East,” she said. “The American people do not want a war with Iran.” According to the response in the theater, she was right.

Warren has had a difficult couple of months, which has seen her drop back in the polls. At the beginning of October, Warren was, briefly, in the lead nationwide. That brought its own problems: at the Democratic debate that month she was attacked repeatedly by her rivals, as they sought to boost their own profiles.

The clumsy rollout of Warren’s universal healthcare policy – she spent weeks avoiding explaining how she would pay for Medicare for All – didn’t help, and as her national numbers have suffered, her ideological companion Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, the precocious centrist, have nibbled away at her support.

With less than a month until the first vote, in Iowa, Warren and her supporters could be forgiven for being worried. They aren’t showing it, though.

“She’s the best candidate out of all of them,” said Antonius Wiriadjaja, a 36-year-old professor of interactive media. “She’s considered to be trailing, but people also didn’t think Donald Trump was going to win, and here we are.”

There are bright spots for Warren. Although she raised less money in the fourth quarter of 2019 than she had previously, her small-donor-enthused total of $21.2m wasn’t far behind Buttigieg. (Sanders hauled in a mighty $34.5m, way ahead of the other candidates.)

On Tuesday, Warren was fresh from an appearance on The View, where she had sparred with Meghan McCain, the daughter of John McCain and a faithful rightwing voice. McCain’s resolute defense of Republican talking points has tripped up other Democrats who have appeared on the show, but Warren tuned her out to give a thorough explanation of what she would do as president. It was a performance that brought positive coverage.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The actor Maggie Gyllenhaal among the crowd at the Elizabeth Warren rally in Brooklyn. Photograph: Joel Sheakoski/Barcroft Media

“That was a great moment for her,” Wiriadjaja said. “If she continues to do things like that – remind people that what she’s doing is not punishing the rich, she’s making sure that we’re getting the benefits of what had made them rich in the first place – as long as she continues on that path she’s gonna be back to the frontrunner.”

Warren has embarked on a spirited media tour this week, in an effort to give her campaign a shot in the arm. In the past three days she has appeared on five national television shows, and her supporters were in agreement that if Warren is given time to sell her ideas, people will buy.

“I’ve noticed her doing a lot more national press. I think that helps,” said Kim Maynard, a 53-year-old television producer who lives in Brooklyn.

“I think when people see her and see her passion and energy, that really resonates. But I think as a whole in this race people are looking for who they really think is the most electable candidate. The thing is, not everyone agrees on who is most electable.”

Indeed, there are plenty of people seem to believe a candidate with more centrist, or perhaps less ambitious, plans on climate change, healthcare and education would be the better opponent for Trump: someone like Biden, or even Buttigieg.

Warren is aware of this argument, and slipped in a dig at those two rivals on Tuesday.

“You can look oh-so-sophisticated, oh-so-smart, by backing off from the big ideas. ‘Not now! Too hard! We can’t do this!’” she said.

Just in case anyone was in danger of missing the message, one wag in the crowd shouted “Mayor Pete!” as Warren was talking.

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The resulting laughter added to the feelgood mood as the rally drew to a close in Warren’s usual fashion. Her commitment to taking photos with supporters is notorious – her campaign manager has said Warren would consider an event a failure if “even a single person” who wanted a photo didn’t get their wish – and on Sunday Warren apparently took her 100,000th “selfie” with a supporter.

Everyone was going to get a photo on Tuesday, too, Warren said. But with a twist.

“We’re gonna do something historic,” she told the crowd. “Julián and I, for the first time in history, we’re gonna stand here and do double selfies.”

Whether the double selfie is actually historic or not, the offer clearly appealed. At the end of the night hundreds of people lined up all the way to the back of the theater, through the lobby, and into the rain outside. If that level of commitment is anything to go by, Warren will be around for a while yet.