Race Overview

The final Grand Tour of 2013 is here at last! It promises to be grueling, extremely hilly and hot, which means plenty of entertainment for us. In return, VeloHuman promises to be full of content: after this outlook on the overall race, every few days will bring recaps and previews of the stages to come, so check back often. If you just came here for the picks, well, they’re at the bottom, but if you scroll past all the analysis, you’ll miss some names you might not have otherwise considered!

The 2013 Vuelta will put twenty-stages and four jerseys (General Classification, Points, Mountains, and Combination) up for grabs. Time bonuses of 10, 6, and 4 seconds are awarded to the top three finishers on each stage, and bonuses of 6, 4, and 2 seconds are awarded to the first three riders across the lines of intermediate sprints. Mountains are classified (from easiest to hardest) as Categories 3, 2, 1, and (for the marquee summits) Especial.

The first stage is a team time trial, not terribly long or hilly, and stage 11 is an individual time trial, with a small climb in the middle. We’ll call five stages (stages 4, 6, 7, 12, and 21) flat, and an additional three stages (stages 5, 13, and 17) are classified here as “medium mountain” stages, but will likely end in sprints, albeit with possibly reduced bunches. The remaining eleven stages are mountainous and finish uphill: stages 3, 9, and 19 are also classified as medium mountain stages but end with ascents, and stages 2, 8, 10, 14, 15, 16, 18, and 20 all fall into the high mountain class.

With so many uphill finishes scattered throughout the twenty-one days of racing, the Vuelta organizers have guaranteed an intense battle for the overall victory that will rage constantly, rather than slowly building up to a few grueling stages in the last week–though with L’Angliru awaiting the GC contenders as the final summit of the 2013 Vuelta a España, the last week will be more than grueling. Not many pure sprinters are bothering to make the trip. This is truly a tour for the star climbers, and many of the sport’s most recognizable climbing talents (minus recent Tour de France racers Chris Froome, Nairo Quintana, and Alberto Contador) are making the journey to the province of Pontevedra to start the race, regardless of their fatigue level this late in the year.

All-rounder Roundup

As so many major contenders are taking on the Vuelta after already grinding through either the Giro or the Tour this year, and with so many difficult stages offering opportunities for even the best riders to lose huge chunks of time at once, the quest for the GC victory at the Vuelta a España will be very hard to call. On perfect form and targeting this race, Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali would be a strong favorite. He dominated the Giro d’Italia with his combination of elite climbing and relatively newfound elite time trialing, winning the pink jersey with nearly five minutes of cushion over the 2nd place rider, Sky’s Rigoberto Uran. He has already won the Vuelta once, in 2010, and he knows that an opportunity to win two Grand Tours in a year, an opportunity that he has in 2013, is a rare thing. However, after a midseason break from racing, it is hard to tell whether Nibali has the form to take on another three-week Grand Tour as the favorite, especially when his next main target this season is the World Championship race, an event with far more climbing than usual that is being held in his home country. That leaves this competition open for a sizable lot of other contenders, though the question of focus (Vuelta vs. World Champs) exists for nearly every one of them.

Still, the discussion should start with Vincenzo Nibali. Not only is he probably the strongest all-round rider in this Vuelta at his best, he’s also riding at the head of a stacked team. His Astana supporting squad includes Tour top 10 man Jakob Fuglsang (don’t write him off for a top 10 here if he targets it), and capable all-rounders Tanel Kangert, Maxim Iglinsky, Janez Brajkovic, and Andriy Grivko. Even without Kessiakof, they are well-built for the opening team time trial, and the climbing support will be strong (as it needs to be for all the summit finishes). Nibali’s performance at the Tour de Pologne showed a lot of post-Giro rust, but he got back on track at the Vuelta a Burgos, putting in a podium performance with solid climbing legs, rolling in 48 seconds behind Quintana on the decisive final stage.

Given his resume and a recent showing of form, Nibali is my prohibitive favorite, but even with the necessary form, his powerful engine isn’t built to nab bonus seconds in short, steep, close finishes against punchy opponents, and this Vuelta offers many opportunities for those explosive riders, meaning competition will be fierce.

As such, there will be a bevy of explosive climbers in attendance to challenge the Shark of Messina. Chief among them are Spanish stars Joaquim Rodriguez of Katusha and Alejandro Valverde of Movistar. Rodriguez is coming off a strong Tour de France in which he finished on the podium. The stage profiles at the Vuelta a España probably have him salivating, but he dug incredibly deep in the last week of the Tour to come up with his third place in GC. He hasn’t raced since, leaving some question marks about his form. He isn’t a stranger to performing at a high level in two Grand Tours per year (he stood on two GT podiums last year), but he did have a bit more recovery time in 2012 between the Giro and the Vuelta. Still, despite a bit of uncertainty, Purito has the talent and, at age 34 riding in his home Grand Tour, motivation will be through the roof. He has performed at an extremely high level in Grand Tours in the past two years, but his could be his best chance to finally win one. He has the finishing kick to pick up seconds on any given stage, and he has improved his time trialing enough that it shouldn’t keep him out of contention, especially not when this edition’s ITT has a categorized climb in the middle of it. If he still has the form, I think his overall package will be enough to carry him onto the podium and possibly even to the overall victory.

Alejandro Valverde’s combination of climbing and finishing power make him another prime candidate for the podium, especially after a heartbreaking Tour de France that saw him lose an insurmountable chunk of time after a mechanical problem on a windy flat stage. Bonus seconds play to Valverde’s strengths, as he is the best sprinter among the elite climbers on the start list, but like Rodriguez, he’s coming off a Tour de France in which he went very deep in the final week (fighting to get back into the top 10 in GC, which he did), and as strong as he is, Rodriguez and Nibali may have a slight advantage in terms of pure climbing. He already has a Vuelta victory on his Palmares and knows what it takes, but this might cut both ways: with the World Championship race parcours almost perfectly tuned to his strengths, Valverde does already have one Vuelta to his name, but no rainbow jersey.

As good as Nibali, Rodriguez, and Valverde are, none of them could be considered even close to being the favorite. This race is just too open, and there are so many questions raised by fatigue and rider motivation. The other contenders include a pack of up-and-comers, and a stable of old veterans. Perhaps chief among the 25 and under crowd are Sky’s Sergio Henao and AG2R’s Carlos Betancur. Betancur won the young rider classification at this year’s Giro, finishing in 5th place. He’s a pure climbing talent, though what he makes up for in climbing, he really lacks in time trialing (he lost five minutes to Vincenzo Nibali in the stage 8 time trial of the Giro). Fortunately, this year’s Vuelta looks perfect for that skillset. However, he has not raced at all since the Giro and at just 23, his resume lacks much evidence for his ability to perform at a high level across two GTs. As explosive as he is, it may be a bit much to ask of him to cruise through three more weeks in peak form.

Sergio Henao, on the other hand, was able to take the Giro at a less grueling pace, riding in support of first Wiggins, and then Rigoberto Uran. He looked great climbing in the Tour de Pologne, finishing 5th, and as he has shown in single day climber’s races, he does have some explosiveness under the hood. He rides at the head of a powerful Team Sky, and Giro runner-up Rigoberto Uran is, apparently, here to support him. Henao’s best Grand Tour performance so far is his 9th place in the 2012 Giro d’Italia, but I think he will improve on that here, possibly challenging for a podium place as one of the top contenders with some of the freshest legs. The aforementioned Uran should not be written off, either; had he not ridden the Giro so hard, he’d be an obvious favorite here, but even with that mileage, he’s still a threat, though he may be more interested in the World Championship race in Italy (after his 2nd place at the Olympics and twice on the podium in Lombardy, Uran must feel the time is right for a marquee single-day win).

Ivan Basso, Samuel Sanchez, Michele Scarponi, and Chris Horner headline the list of cagey veterans looking for statement victories at this point in their careers. Cannondale’s Basso missed the Giro this year and, therefore, has very little mileage in the legs. Only a year ago, he was 5th in that race, and he’s looked okay in recent contests (8th in the Tour de Pologne, 10th in the Vuelta a Burgos). Especially at this age, he might lack the explosiveness for a top finish in GC, but that freshness has to count for something, and his team is 100% committed to him. Samuel Sanchez will love the lumpy profile, but his stage race successes have been dwindling lately, and he put a lot of energy (with unfortunately little return) into the Giro d’Italia. Still, a top 10 performance, especially with his endurance and team support, is not out of the question. Michele Scarponi really isn’t all that old (33), but he has never performed at a high level across two Grand Tours in the same year. 4th place in the Giro is nothing to sneeze at, and suggests he still has plenty of power in the legs, but it is hard to see him nabbing a podium position in the Vuelta. Horner gets a mention for his long list of career successes, a top 10 at Tirreno-Adriatico this year, and no other Grand Tour in his legs in 2013, but I don’t know that I see a top 10 in the cards for him. His teammate Haimar Zubeldia, 36, has so many Grand Tour top 10s under his belt that even without much to talk about in terms of results this year, he gets a sentence here, too.

Joaquim Rodriguez’s Katusha teammate Daniel Moreno took 5th in last year’s Vuelta and, while he did already ride in the Tour de France, he, like Sergio Henao, probably still has some left in the tank, in that his prior Grand Tour appearance seems to have been fully in support of a teammate. Last year, Moreno supported Rodriguez in the Giro and then was given opportunities to make his own mark in the Vuelta. If the script is the same this year, his elite climbing abilities, with no little amount of explosiveness to nab bonus seconds, could put him in the top 10.

Team Saxo-Tinkoff sends a whopping three possible podium finishers to the Vuelta, though all of them have already ridden in a Grand Tour this year and it is yet totally unclear who will be their top rider. On the one hand, the team has declared Roman Kreuziger leader. He is a true all-rounder and after putting in such an impressive Tour performance, he’s a legitimate threat. However, that effort and the upcoming World Championship race, which will play strongly to his Amstel Gold-winning skillset, raise a lot of questions about his motivations; he has even said straight out that he isn’t going for GC, despite being given the leadership nod. That may leave the task up to one of his strong teammates. Rafal Majka, 7th in the Giro d’Italia, is a very capable up-and-comer who just showed with a 4th place finish (and the Points Classification) at the Tour de Pologne that he still has some form. However, expecting two top-tier GT performances out of a 23-year-old rider might be a bit much. And then, of course, there is Nicolas Roche, who, in his 29th year, is surely striving for some kind of big win to add to his palmares. He certainly has the talent for a top 10, though people have been saying that for a long time. By saving his legs on a number of Tour de France stages, he has probably got some energy left for another push. He was a faithful domestique in the Tour de France and then in San Sebastian, and he may feel he has earned some team support, but we won’t know the team’s tactics until the race begins. Roche and Majka will at least be protected if they are not initially team leaders, and whomever this team ultimately decides to rally behind will have some impressive support. Chris Anker Sorensen at least deserves a mention as a potential decent finisher, and Oliver Zaugg, winner of Il Lombardia in 2011 (and so close to a top 10 at the Vuelta in 2008, where he finished 11th), will lend his support as well.

To a lesser extent, Vacansoleil-DCM is in a similar position, with Thomas de Gendt (totally disappointing in the Tour de France), Wout Poels, and Tomasz Marcynski in attendance and all potentially capable of a GC top 10. Only a year ago, De Gendt was on the podium at the Giro d’Italia, and after falling off the pace early in the Tour de France, he showed a flare of ability in the first ITT and then disappeared again. It’s hard to say where he’ll end up in the Vuelta.

For all his climbing talent Daniel Martin can’t be left out of a preview; he has had a stellar 2013 with a Monument victory (Liege-Bastogne-Liege), a stage in the Tour de France, and the overall and a stage in the Volta a Catalunya. In terms of chasing the GC at the Vuelta, however, there are many, many questions about his candidacy as a contender. He looked great at the Tour de France until he caught ill and finished at the back of the peloton for the final week, but strong starts and fading finishes are not new for him on the Grand Tour scene. It doesn’t help that he takes every opportunity to tell the media that he targets stage wins and doesn’t worry much about his position in GC. Additionally, the World Championship race is a target of his this year. Finally, Garmin hasn’t really sent him much help, with most of their star climbers in North America for the USA Pro Cycling Challenge and the upcoming Canadian circuit races. In his favor, the route will be to his liking, full of climbs and low on time trial mileage. He also didn’t push his legs as hard as some of the other top climbers late in the Tour de France, as he was busy battling a cough. Is a top 5 possible for someone like Martin? Sure. Is it possible that he will finish nowhere near the top 30 on GC? Sure.

Belkin’s dynamic Tour de France duo of Laurens ten Dam and Bauke Mollema are both in attendance. Mollema has done very well here in the past, taking 4th and the points classification in 2011, and he’s become a more well-rounded rider since, but he gave his all in the Tour de France and likely won’t have too much left in his tank. Ten Dam was 8th in last year’s Vuelta after riding a Tour de France, so he can’t be written out for a top 10 either, but it’s hard to see him overtaking the fierce competition. It should be noted that Belkin’s Luis Leon Sanchez nabbed 10th place finishes in the 2010 Tour de France and Vuelta a España, but the summit-happy edition of this year’s race might be a bit out of his league in terms of GC.

Movistar’s Eros Capecchi and Benat Intxausti and Euskaltel’s Igor Anton and Mikel Nieve are among the many super-domestiques with the chops to land in the top 10 overall. 24-year old Diego Ulissi of team Lampre has had a decent 2013, placing 7th in Paris-Nice and taking a stage in the Tour de Pologne. He doesn’t have the mileage of a prior Grand Tour in his legs, and if given opportunities, he could make a mark on GC.

Domenico Pozzovivo of AG2R had a fine Giro d’Italia, finishing in 10th place behind his teammate Betancur, and showed good climbing form with a 7th place at the recent Tour de Pologne. As Betancur is a question mark in terms of both form and motivation, AG2R could turn its (admittedly not strong) support to Pozzovivo, who has a number of Grand Tour top 10s on his resume and could add another here.

From the Pro Continental ranks, David Arroyo is fresh off a 2nd overall in the Vuelta a Burgos (behind Quintana and ahead of Nibali). 2010 may seem like a long time ago, but this is a rider who has been 2nd overall in Grand Tour, and, perhaps most importantly, he has not ridden one yet this year. Fresh legs and the support of a Spanish team that will be highly motivated to show their prowess in their home Grand Tour, Arroyo could put in a challenge against a field filled with exhausted contenders lacking motivation.

Lastly, Thibaut Pinot will be at the Vuelta and, for all the jokes that have been made about his troubles with descending and his poor form in the Tour this year, he is coming off a 6th place in the Tour de l’Ain against some big talents and probably has fresher legs than most of the riders at the Vuelta with Grand Tour top 10s on their resumes. Maybe he’ll get back on track? Probably not, but it’s worth a mention.

Even with all those names listed (far more than I outlined for the Tour preview), I’m still not confident that I’ve brought up every potential top 10 rider for GC. This Vuelta is just that open.

Stagehunters

The number of stages that won’t have GC implications is pretty low compared to the Tour de France we just witnessed, meaning that the collection of star stagehunters at the Vuelta is smaller than you might expect. In fact, with eleven uphill finishes, you might see the majority of the Vuelta’s stages won by GC riders, or all-rounders who have fallen off the pace and who will trade the occasional day of recovery in the saddle for shots at stage victories in the mountains. Riders likely to fit into this latter category deserve the first mention in the stagehunter section.

It is quite possible that one or more of even the big three of Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Vincenzo Nibali will turn to targeting stage victories in preparation for the World Championship race. Given the number of uphill finishes and the bonus seconds on offer at each finish line, I’d imagine Rodriguez, Valverde, and Nibali, in that order, are the three most likely winners of the Points Classification’s green jersey. I’d also say there is a very high likelihood that one or more of Roman Kreuziger, Daniel Martin, and Daniel Moreno, the three winners of this year’s Ardennes week, will turn to focusing on nabbing multiple stage wins as well–I’d also bet that one of them is successful in this regard. Rigoberto Uran and Carlos Betancur will probably lead the Colombian charge at the World Championship race, meaning that both could drop their GC aspirations entirely and gun for multiple stage wins in preparation here at the Vuelta.

And for the rest of the stages? There are very few pure sprinters in attendance. Tyler Farrar looks to be the headliner in that department, and he’s looked good this year, with a number of stage top 10s and a win in the Tour of California. There aren’t a ton of flat stages for him to make his mark on, but there is a four day period (stages 4-7) that could put him at the forefront on multiple days in a row. He’ll be challenged by a number of other sprinters and more balanced riders with fast finishes, and in that respect, he’s going up against stiff competition, as some of the sport’s top sprinters-who-can-climb/all-rounders-who-can-sprint are making the trip to this hilly edition of the Vuelta. Gianni Meersman of Omega Pharma-Quick Step won the points classification at the Criterium du Dauphine after already having nabbed two stages each at the Tour de Romandie and the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya. The 27-year old is in his prime with a powerful team backing him, and it is a team that does not really have any GC riders and will therefore be fully committed to winning stages. As hot as he has been this year, and given his skill set, Meersman could be in line for a bucketful of high placings. He can sprint with the best sprinters, he’s more than capable of getting over late climbs, and he’s even capable of longer attacks. If he weren’t contending with so many climbing superstars in a Vuelta with so many summit finishes for the points classification, he might be my pick for that jersey, and regardless, he’s definitely my pick of the non GC-contenders who will finish highest in terms of points.

Edvald Boasson Hagen brings a similar skillset to the competition, though he is a bit of an unknown quantity after a nasty shoulder injury in the Tour de France. If he’s back on form (and he has apparently been training for some time now, having recovered quite quickly), he is, like Meersman, capable of winning on a variety of terrains in a number of different ways. Against a somewhat less challenging field, EBH has a great opportunity to add a few wins to a resume that has lacked a bit of its usual pop this year.

As usual, Orica-GreenEdge is stacked with stagehunters. Young riders Leigh Howard and Michael Matthews are poised to make a splash, especially Matthews, who just won two stages and the points classification of the Tour of Utah to go with his other good results this year. Tour stage winner (and 2012 Milano-San Remo winner) Simon Gerrans will be in attendance for the more difficult stages, and he’s a great bet to nab a stage win, though it’s always very difficult trying to predict just which stage he’ll win, as OGE likes to mix it up. Simon Clarke took a stage win en route to last year’s KoM jersey, and is likely to try for a few long ones again here, as his list of successes is short so far in 2013.

Without Andre Greipel to support, Lotto Belisol will try to place Jelle Vanendert for GC, and look for opportunities elsewhere as they come. Since I don’t see the relatively-unsuccessful-in-2013 Vanendert making much of a dent in the overall, perhaps he and Bert de Clercq will try to pick up a win on one of the many uphill stages, while Greg Henderson will finally be able to sprint for his own ambitions instead of leading out a Gorilla–though at his age (36), expectations are low. Perhaps the Belgian squad will surprise.

Luis Leon Sanchez is back and looks strong again with recent good showings in the Tour de l’Ain and his National Champs races. Belkin has a strong team here, and LL Sanchez is a great bet to deliver a long attack or a victory out of a reduced bunch on one of the medium mountain stages.

Meersman’s teammate Zdenek Stybar just wowed the cycling world with a dominant Eneco Tour, nabbing a pair of stages and the overall victory, showing some true all around talent while everyone else was focused on containing his teammate Sylvain Chavanel. Don’t be surprised to see him rack up a few more results with his aggressive riding; he has definitely arrived as a rider, and in style.

Belkin has Theo Bos, but the former track superstar has been underwhelming this year. He did zilch at the Eneco Tour (he seemed to have trouble making it to the finishing sprints), and despite starting the year with a string of Continental Tour victories, he hasn’t had much success at the top level in 2013. The competition from pure sprinters will be light, giving him a decent opportunity to nab a win, but the result results just aren’t there to back up his bid, leaving me a bit less confident. Vacansoleil’s Barry Markus has just signed on to Belkin for 2014, and after a third place in Scheldeprijs earlier this year (ahead of Bos, and Alexander Kristoff, and Tyler Farrar), he’s primed to show his future team that he’s got the chops to be a supported sprinter.

If you are looking for a few under the radar sprinters, I’ll name a pair of young up-and-comers riding for an Argos-Shimano squad that doesn’t have Marcel Kittel or John Degenkolb to take away stage victories: Reinardt Janse van Rensburg and Nikias Arndt. The former has put together a string of high finishes in WorldTour events in the past few months, and the latter was stellar at the recent Arctic Race of Norway.

For the uphill sprints, Philippe Gilbert will be going all-in to nab something out of his 2013. BMC does not have a GC-oriented squad, meaning Gilbert’s goals will be the team’s goals. As ugly as his knee looked after his unfortunate crash on the Eneco Tour stage that seemed to suit him most, if he’s healthy, there are multiple stages that look great for his uphill bursts, and he looked on good form at the Eneco Tour before it all went wrong.

Fabian Cancellara is also in attendance. He’s looking ahead to the World Championships, and might be hoping for a stage win or two. Surely he’ll be targetting the stage 11 time trial, but he’ll be up against Tony Martin, who seems content to pick off the ITTs in basically every World Tour race he can think of. The Vuelta’s does have a hill, but it’s not a massive one, and that favors these two riders over the GC men. Other contenders for that stage include, obviously, said GC types like Vincenzo Nibali, and also time trialing heavyweights Tanel Kangert, Stef Clement, and Lieuwe Westra (who, unfortunately, crashed out of an Eneco Tour that was going very well for him, after abandoning the Tour de France in its final stage).

The three Pro Continental squads (NetApp, Cofidis, and especially Spanish team Caja Rural) will surely be sending lots of riders up the road as often as possible for maximum visibility. Maybe this is the race in which Amets Txurruka finally stays out front all day for a stage win. Leopold Konig is a name to keep in mind. Euskaltel’s stable of climbers and Vacansoleil’s breakaway artists will likely be out in force for wins on the intermediate stages as well.

VeloHuman Predictions

General Classification Winner

Vincenzo Nibali

GC Podium

Joaquim Rodriguez, Sergio Henao

GC Top 10

Ivan Basso, Alejandro Valverde, Samuel Sanchez, Daniel Moreno, Carlos Betancur, Rafal Majka, Nicolas Roche

Points Classification Winner

Joaquim Rodriguez

Stages

Stage 1: Vilanova de Arousa > Sanxenxo | 27km | Team Time Trial

Stage 2: Pontevedra > Monte da Groba | 176.8km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

Stage 3: Vigo > Mirador de Lobeira | 172.5km | Medium Mountains

Stage 4: Lalín > Finisterra | 186.4km | Flat

Stage 5: Sober > Lago de Sanabria | 168.4km | Medium Mountains

Stage 6: Guijuelo > Caceres | 177.3km | Flat

Stage 7: Almendralejo > Mairena del Aljarafe | 195.5km | Flat

Stage 8: Jerez de la Frontera > Alto de Peñas Blancas | 170km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

Stage 9: Antequera > Valdepeñas de Jaén | 174.3km | Medium Mountains

Stage 10: Torredelcampo > Alto Hazallanas | 175.5km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

Stage 11: Tarazona | 38km | Individual Time Trial

Stage 12: Maella > Tarragona | 157km | Flat

Stage 13: Valls > Castelldefels | 165km | Medium Mountains

Stage 14: Bagà > Andorra | 164km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

Stage 15: Andorra > Peyragudes | 232.5km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

Stage 16: Graus > Formigal | 147.7km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

Stage 17: Calahorra > Burgos | 184.5km | Medium Mountains

Stage 18: Burgos > Peña Cabarga | 186km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

Stage 19: San Vicente de la Barquera > Alto del Naranco | 177.5km | Medium Mountains

Stage 20: Aviles > Alto de L’Angliru | 144.1km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

Stage 21: Leganes > Madrid | 99.1km | Flat

-Dane Cash

Photos by Román P. G., Laurent Brun (photo 2 and 4), Flowizm, and Louise Hyldegaard and Ditte Thieme.