It might seem unlikely that this presidential election could get any stranger, but polls are emerging that suggest Texas might now be in play for the Democrats.

A University of Houston poll published on Tuesday found Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by only three percentage points, within the margin of error, in a four-way race. Also that day, a Washington Post/SurveyMonkey poll pegged Trump’s advantage at only two points, the same as in Florida.

Texas’s 38 electoral college votes, second only to California, make it the ultimate wishlist item for Democrats. For Republicans it is like a vital organ: essential for the body’s survival but taken for granted, almost forgotten, until something starts to go wrong.

Democratic efforts in Texas have lately focused on planting seeds that might germinate in 2020, 2024 or later, when it is presumed that a growing Hispanic, Asian and African American population will increase the party’s chances. The Clinton campaign has not prioritized Texas, moving recently into two other usually deep red states, Arizona and Georgia.

But could the future be now? Could a Republican playground be morphing into a partisan battleground?

On Wednesday, Democrats from Fort Bend County, south-west of Houston, gathered at an Indian restaurant for a presidential debate watch party. They were feeling unusually optimistic.

It’s unreal, it’s surreal. We are known as a red state Cynthia Ginyard, Fort Bend Democratic chair

Red, white and blue balloons swayed in a gentle draft from ceiling air-conditioning vents as about 50 people, two-thirds of them south Asian, munched chicken, bhajis and basmati rice. While the two candidates jousted on television, cutlery clinked.

“It’s unreal, it’s surreal,” said Cynthia Ginyard, chair of the county Democratic party. “We are known as a red state and we know that. Our goal was always to change that. We didn’t realise that the possibility was so near.

“Inasmuch as I want to give us a pat on the back for working hard, some of it just happened along the way,” she continued, citing a big voter registration effort as evidence of the former and an anti-Trump bump as the wildcard element.

Cynthia Ginyard. Photograph: Tom Dart/The Guardian

“I had two people attend the first debate watch party who were Republicans and they said: ‘We figured we’d just come and join y’all, we’re just through with our party.’”

Behind the truth that Texas is a well-fortified conservative castle there are complexities, subtleties and shifts, some related to the economic success that state Republicans like to tout as a hallmark of their leadership.

In the 2012 election, Barack Obama won the state’s four biggest cities – Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and Austin – as well as most of the counties on the border with Mexico. However, such is the Republican stranglehold on rural and suburban Texas that Mitt Romney won the state easily, by 57.2% to Obama’s 41.4%. Obama garnered less than 20% of the vote in a third of Texas counties. Of the state’s 254 counties, only 26 glowed blue.

How will the election be decided? The president is chosen through the electoral college, in which each state is assigned a ​certain ​number of ​votes called ​electoral votes (EVs) ​. Electoral votes (EVs) ​, ​which are tied ​ultimately based on population. California has the most EVs, with 55; eight of the least populous states have only three apiece. Most states give all their electoral votes to whichever candidate wins the state popular vote. ​ as state after state reports results, the candidates' tallies build. Whichever T ​A presidential candidate who claims ​ a majority – ​ at least 270 ​out ​of the 538 EVs ​– ​wins the election. ​Many states' preferences are clear beforehand, thanks to p ​ Polling and precedent mean the preferences of many states are clear beforehand, resulting in a focus on "swing" states ​. The focus on election night is on "swing states" that could go either way ​. Donald Trump needs a sweep of swing states (watch Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, among others) to win.

Fort Bend was not one of them. Romney won it with 52.9% to Obama’s 46.1%. That is tight by Texas standards, making Democrats hopeful that its demographics and Trump’s noxiousness could inspire Fort Bend to flip next month and affect down-ballot races.

Fort Bend is a study in multiculturalism in modern suburban America and in the kind of trends that excite Democrats and alarm Republicans. It is now the sort of place where you are almost as likely to come across a Hindu or Buddhist temple as a firearms store.

Manicured middle-class housing developments chew into former ranch lands 30 miles or more from downtown Houston, as the metropolitan area loosens its belt. Easy access to energy, medical and technology hubs has helped make Fort Bend one of the fastest-growing, most ethnically diverse, best-educated and affluent counties in the US.

The estimated population of 716,000 has grown by 22% in five years. More than a quarter of residents are foreign-born and a fifth of the population is Asian.

“We registered over 4,000 Muslim voters in Fort Bend County this year,” said Shapnik Khan, a 45-year-old law office manager who moved from Bangladesh to the US as a teenager to study and has been in Fort Bend for 20 years. His wife was born in Mexico.

I just think to myself it’s impossible for Texas to go blue. How can it possibly happen? Richard Morrison, precinct commissioner

Back in the mid-1990s, he said, “the area of my house was like a dense forest … deer, coyotes”. Now: “If you go at five o’clock it’s like three miles of traffic.”

Nishan Khan, a 63-year-old real estate agent, came to the US from Bangladesh in the 1980s. “We have all kinds of people,” he said, an H-for-Hillary sticker on his shirt. “It is changing and it is changing for the better … Make no mistake, there’s a huge change because of the GOP’s mistakes and GOP’s head of the ticket.”

Richard Morrison, running for a third term as a precinct commissioner, was more circumspect. “I’m hesitant to predict that it’s going to get over the line now,” he said. “I’m hopeful but I just can’t get over all my experiences in the past. So I don’t know.

Nishan Khan. Photograph: Tom Dart/The Guardian

“I know that we are a very diverse population and very highly educated and we have a bunch of young citizens. I see all those factors but if I was a betting man – and I’m not a betting man – I just wouldn’t feel confident enough to cast my bet.

“There’s no way Texas can flip,” he continued. “That’s just from me looking at it and thinking, how is that even possible? I just think to myself it’s impossible for Texas to go blue. How can it possibly happen? And I’m generally not a pessimistic person, I’m always very optimistic.”

Texas last went Democratic in a presidential election in 1976, backing Jimmy Carter. If the polls are correct, 2016 will be the first time since 1996 that the main parties are within 11 points of each other.

“We’re not an island,” said James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas. “I think one has to expect that as the ground seems to have shifted so dramatically on the national level it was going to affect what’s going on here in Texas as well.”

The Lone Star state was not enthused by Trump even before this summer’s missteps, such as insulting the parents of a deceased Muslim American soldier, which Shapnik Khan said offended the local Muslim community. In the Republican primary in March, Trump finished a distant second to the Texas senator Ted Cruz, mustering only 27% of the vote.

Still, only two years ago, Democrats reeled from a major setback when their high-profile gubernatorial candidate, Wendy Davis, was thrashed by Greg Abbott, losing by more than 20 points and setting the state legislature down an even more conservative path.

Especially given that outcome, current polls are “a pretty shocking development”, Henson said, even if he ultimately expected the presidential race here to be less close than it looks at present because a large number of undecideds will plump for Trump.

“It’s hard not to look at this and feel like there is something of a crisis for the Republican party,” he said. “In a place like Texas they have a significant cushion which they may need to use.”