Matt Brown may be poised to run away with what was expected to be a three-horse race to become London’s next mayor, a new poll suggests.

In what’s clearly the biggest surprise in the survey conducted exclusively forThe Free Pressby the Forum Poll, neither of the two other presumed front-runners — former city councillor Roger Caranci and veteran councillor Joe Swan — is even close.

Instead, outsider Paul Cheng, a well-heeled businessman who’s spending big money on advertising but has no political experience, appears to be running second.

“We still have six weeks (until the Oct. 27 election) and that’s a long time,” said pollster Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research Inc.

“We never say never but it would be very, very difficult for (Swan and Caranci) to overcome that type of lead,” he said. “I really think it’s a two-man race from here on out.”

Toronto-based Forum polled more than 700 Londoners on Thursday in the first major soundings of voter preferences in the mayoral race.

Brown’s lead early in the post-Labour Day sprint to the election appears huge.

Nearly one-third of respondents — 32% — expressed support for the 40-year-old teacher, who was first elected to council four years ago.

Cheng, a 58-year-old whose political resume is limited to a Reform Party run in 1993, has said he’ll spend as much as $50,000 of his own money on ads — he has a rag-tag campaign team — to grease his run.

The media and bus-stop ads appear to be working, with 19% of respondents backing him.

The poor showings of Caranci and Swan are stunning. They have the support of 8% and 9% of respondents, respectively, putting them just ahead of Arnon Kaplansky, a developer who drew 1% support in the poll.

More than one-quarter of respondents, 26%, indicated they’re undecided.

There’s clearly room for growth for Caranci and Swan, and no guarantee Brown can maintain his lead, or that Cheng will hang onto his support. But the snapshot the poll provides is unexpected.

The persistent left-right split in London politics, between slow-growth and more pro-development politicians, showcased often under former mayor Joe Fontana, who resigned in disgrace late in the term, appears reflected in the numbers — only this time, the right-leaning side seems splintered.

To one local expert, it indicates Swan — who was often aligned with Fontana — and Caranci may be fighting over the traditional right-of-centre vote, while Brown has the other side of the political spectrum to himself.

“Clearly Swan and Caranci are, in my view, dividing the vote among people who believe lower taxes and a focus on economic development in the traditional sense is the way to go,” said Martin Horak, director of Western University’s local government program.

“You’ve got to take (polls) with a grain of salt. What it does tell us is, it’s not a three-horse race in a significant sense. We’ve got one clear front-runner.”

Perhaps most promising for Brown is his showing among older voters, generally considered the most likely to vote. The poll suggests he has 37% support among voters aged 55 to 64 and 42% among the 65-plus crowd.

Cheng’s strongest support, on the other hand, 29%, comes from the youngest voters — those between 18 and 34, a demographic often the least likely to vote.

Caranci support is in the single digits among all age brackets.

Swan’s personal high-water mark is 11%, among those 35 to 44 and 55 to 64.

While Horak is surprised by Caranci’s low numbers, he expected a poor showing by Swan.

Even before learning of the poll, Horak on Friday said: “My sense is Joe Swan is going to be dropping off the map.”

Read the Forum poll here.

SWAN AND CARANCI NEED ‘A BIG IDEA’

The stunningly low support presumed front-runners Joe Swan and Roger Caranci garnered in the first poll of London’s mayoral campaign suggests both campaigns need a dramatic shift.

That’s the view of veteran pollster Lorne Bozinoff, whose Forum Poll found Caranci and Swan pulling single-digit support.

They’re far from finished — and Bozinoff suggests how they can recover.

“Those two need a big idea,” he said. “They need to catch the imagination of the public. (Matt Brown’s) 32% (support) is not insurmountable, but it is difficult to overcome a lead now, when you’re back in single digits.”

The notion of a big idea conjures up memories of former mayor Joe Fontana’s 2010 campaign when two bold promises — a four-year tax freeze and 10,000 new jobs — helped him upset Anne Marie DeCicco-Best, the longest-serving mayor in the city’s history.

Some of the same people who helmed Fontana’s campaign are advising Caranci. At least one person from Fontana’s failed 2006 run is working on Swan’s team.

“They need a major reboot in their campaigns,” Bozinoff said.

patrick.maloney@sunmedia.ca?

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POLL COVERAGE

Saturday: The mayoral race

Monday: Mayoral leadership

Tuesday: Key issues