FLORIDA KEYS — On a water-front plot of paradise in the Florida Keys, Rep. Carlos Curbelo and state and local government officials dug shovels into the sand beneath their feet to symbolize breaking ground on a new affordable apartment complex.

Overflowed water, from high tide flooding, encroached on the land steps away from the politicians, where developers plan to build the homes meant to keep residents from leaving parts of Curbelo's South Florida district that could become uninhabitable because of rising sea levels.

Curbelo, facing re-election in the bluest of Republican-incumbent districts — Florida’s 26th — is staking his political future on addressing what most scientists say is the cause of this problem, climate change.

The centrist Republican is aggressively tackling the challenge forced upon him, introducing a carbon tax bill months before his election at the risk of inflaming critics in his own party — which has long denied climate change, and is skeptical of government intervention to address it.

“At the beginning it was tough on the Republican side,” Curbelo said during an interview with the Washington Examiner in his Miami-based district office, located unassumingly on the second floor of a strip mall with stores that offer mobile phones, haircuts, and dry cleaning services. “There was a lot of cynicism. I fought that with humor. When people dismiss me, I say OK, when my district is under water, I am going to go run against you.”

He is not exaggerating.

The Union of Concerned Scientists conducted a study this month that found 12,100 homes in Curbelo’s district, stretching from south Miami down to the Florida Keys, are at risk of chronic flooding by 2045. Those homes are worth a collective $5.5 billion.

"Within the state of Florida, this is one of the most vulnerable congressional districts and communities," said Kristina Dahl of the Union of Concerned Scientists. "That's saying a lot because Florida itself is one of the most vulnerable states to sea level rise."

Beating the odds

Curbelo is succeeding so far with his plans to survive a potential Democratic wave this year in a district in which Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 16-point margin of victory in 2016 was larger than that in any other district in which an incumbent Republican is running for re-election.

He handily defeated his Democratic opponent that year by 12 points. Last month, Curbelo trounced a right-wing primary challenger. Around that same time, the Cook Political Report moved his general election race versus Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell from "toss-up" to "lean Republican." A poll released last month by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, representing House Democrats in elections, found Curbelo with a 7-point lead over Mucarsel-Powell among likely voters.

Local political experts say Curbelo’s legislative efforts to address climate change have helped his standing with voters.

“His Democratic opponent certainly cannot say Curbelo is a climate denier,” said Kathryn DePalo, a political science professor at Florida International University. “On that issue, he is front and center. So that is not something that would work as an attack, that he doesn't care or understand, because he does.”

While DePalo says climate change is generally not an issue that motivates voters, even in Florida’s 26th district, she said constituents expect their representatives to not dismiss the issue.

"If Curbelo took the Republican line of, 'there is nothing to see here or do here,' it would hurt him in this district," DePalo said. “They’d say: 'Well, open your eyes and walk outside.'"

Stephanie Basil, a resident of Key Largo, could not see a way to the local hospital to deliver her twin boys when Hurricane Irma struck the Florida Keys a year ago, forcing a mandatory evacuation.

Basil and her husband, Adrian, fled north to Miami, taking Route 1 — the only road in and out of the islands — for her to give birth.

Though Curbelo is careful not to link any specific hurricane to climate change, scientists say rising sea levels make storms more destructive, and a warming atmosphere leads to more rain.

A registered Democrat, the 31 year-old Basil sees the science as conclusive, and says she plans to vote for Curbelo this fall because he does too.

“He is probably the only Republican I’d vote for because he cares about climate change,” Basil said during a one-year Hurricane Irma anniversary event that Curbelo attended this month in Marathon, a city located in the middle of the Florida Keys. “I was a biology major, so it's something I really take seriously, especially because where we live, it really affects us.

“It does bother me that there could be a chance if we don't act, my kids may not have this place, or we might lose our home one day,” Basil added.

Major sea level rise

Basil is not wrong to worry about the future viability of these islands, a sad reality for people who make their life in the Florida Keys, which are not only for tourists seeking thrills and chills on the water or slices of Key lime pie.

The Florida Keys are especially vulnerable to climate change because they are so low-lying and are made of porous limestone that is difficult to protect.

Rhonda Haag, the sustainability director for Monroe County, which covers the Florida Keys, is tasked with preparing the area for climate change and sea level rise.

She says that by 2060, 36 percent of the county’s population could be displaced by rising seas.

In 2015, local officials recall, tidal flooding caused by rising sea levels, and unrelated to rain, caused roads in Key Largo in the upper Florida Keys to flood with 16 inches of water. It stayed that way for three weeks.

"You will see the tide coming up and flooding the roads," said Monroe County Mayor David Rice, a Republican. "It gets a little worse every year. There is a lot of politics around the the issue of climate change and sea level rise. We cannot afford that in Monroe County. We know it's rising because we have been measuring the water for over 100 years."

The county recently launched a first-time project to build two new neighborhood roads to elevated levels, to guard against rising waters. Five years ago, it began constructing all county buildings at elevated heights higher than even what the county’s code calls for.

“We are fairly certain we can make things livable for the next 30 to 40 years,” Haag said. “It's just about planning in advance and making sure we do things right. Then, you are looking at some scary numbers. We know it will be different living in the Keys.”

Haag said the county conducts community outreach events, visiting with residents to describe the threat they face. She claims that most people are receptive to the county's plan to strengthen infrastructure, which will be expensive, even in more Republican-populated areas such as Key Largo.

Modest environmental beginnings

Curbelo, a 38 year-old Cuban-American first elected in 2014, views his role protecting his district from climate change modestly, much like his first job as a former high school basketball referee: A fitting position for a stickler for facts who was too slight to make it big on the court.

“It kind of just happened,” Curbelo said.

Curbelo likes to be outside, and he enjoys South Florida’s beaches with his wife and two daughters, but he’s never considered himself an environmentalist.

“I started my work on the environment in a sober, really unassuming way, just recognizing it’s an important issue for South Florida," he said. "But I never knew it would turn into something like this."

Curbelo’s position on climate change has provoked enemies in conservatives who accuse him of opportunism and castigate him for attaching the Republican name to his preferred policy solution — a carbon tax he introduced just months before voters decide his political future.

“If more Republicans were to start voting in a manner that climate activists desire, many of them would be primaried or not make it to the next general election,” said James Taylor, an environmental and climate policy expert at the conservative Heartland Institute. “Curbelo is in rare situation where he can get away with it because of his Democratic-leaning district and personal charm and political skills. Only a handful of Republicans can get away with that.”

Florida Republican colleagues say Curbelo's leadership demonstrates the political realities that lawmakers in coastal states will increasingly face.

"He is ahead of it," said Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. "People can have a debate about what we can do about climate change, and the causes, but the bottom line is that the rising of sea levels is immeasurable in Florida. So if you represent South Florida or live in South Florida, it's really not something you can ignore. He is doing what he should be doing."

Winning over skeptics

Curbelo often explains the realities of his district to Republican colleagues in Washington, who were initially skeptical of his climate change views.

He advocated legislative action early, signing on as one of 16 Republican sponsors of a 2015 resolution that declared that humans contribute to climate change and said that Congress should work to mitigate it with “economically viable” solutions.

Curbelo quickly burnished his credentials, creating the bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus in February 2016 with Ted Deutch, D-Fla., to “explore policy options that address the impacts, causes, and challenges of our changing climate.” That year, Curbelo had the second highest rating of House Republicans on the annual scorecard of the League of Conservation Voters, an environmental advocacy group.

This position has made Curbelo the voice of an emerging, mostly young, Republican congressional class serious about combating climate change, who have organized by joining the Climate Solutions Caucus, a group that has steadily grown its rank to now consist of 86 equal number GOP members and Democrats.

“Carlos is really the Jiminy Cricket of the Republican conference on environmental issues,” said Rep. Matt Gaetz, a climate caucus Republican member who represents one of the most conservative districts in Florida, the polar opposite of Curbelo’s. “He understands the importance of bringing people together from not just the edges of the center, but the edges of the edges.”

These Republicans are backed by an increasingly vocal collection of center-right advocacy groups that advocate for GOP-led bipartisan action on climate change focused on economically-minded solutions, rather than excessive regulation.

“The huge difference between when I introduced a carbon tax bill is the growing capacity of the eco-right, which is a balance to the environmental left,” said Bob Inglis, founder of republicEn.org, and a former six-term congressman from South Carolina. “We view Carlos as the voice of the eco-right. Sure he faces criticism, but he should know he has people that are supportive. It’s crucial that action on climate change be done in a bipartisan way, because that’s the only way it’s durable.”

The carbon tax risk

Curbelo introduced his carbon tax legislation in July after working on it for a year with environmental and business groups, and even libertarian think tanks, becoming the first Republican in a decade to introduce a national climate pricing bill. Inglis was the last Republican to do so and was promptly booted out of Congress in 2010.

The bill would impose a tax beginning at $24 per ton of carbon dioxide in 2020, rising 2 percent annually above inflation. At the same time, it repeals the federal taxes on gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuels. It would use the revenues from the carbon tax to fund improvements to infrastructure, with some of the money directed to flood-mitigation projects and other initiatives to protect against climate change.

Tony Kreindler of the Environmental Defense Fund said Curbelo's introduction of a carbon tax bill shows his seriousness about addressing climate change.

“If Carlos was merely trying to check the box politically, there are easier ways to do that than introducing carbon tax legislation,” Kreindler said. "That’s the hardest way to do that.”

Liberal critics not satisfied

Liberal groups, however, docked Curbelo environmental points for a vote last year to approve the GOP tax bill that opened a portion of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska to oil and gas drilling.

His critics also knock the sincerity of the Climate Solutions Caucus, accusing it of being a front for members in vulnerable swing districts, with few standards for entrance into the group, and even fewer legislative accomplishments.

“I call Curbelo the chief peacock of the peacock caucus, because they flash their tail feathers and claim to be deeply concerned about climate change and do nothing,” said R. L. Miller of the voter mobilization group Climate Hawks Vote. "It may be true if Curbelo had a strong coalition behind him, he could show the caucus to be a potent political force like the House Freedom Caucus. But the peacocks are not with him.”

Despite that harsh review, Miller acknowledged a “split” in how environmental groups view Curbelo, and said she is not ready to commit to endorsing his opponent, Mucarsel-Powell. The League of Conservation Voters is also staying out of the race.

Head-to-head

Mucarsel-Powell, a former associate dean at Florida International University, has provided few specifics about her plans to combat climate change.

“I would like for my opponent and for every candidate in Congress to show what their plan is for the environment,” Curbelo said. “It's easy to attack other people’s positions when you really have no initiatives or proposals of your own. I haven’t seen anything from her.”

Asked by the Washington Examiner what she would do differently than Curbelo, Mucarsel-Powell attacked her incumbent opponent's voting record.

"When I say I'm going to fight for our environment, I actually mean it," she said in a response to written questions. "Carlos Curbelo has done little in Washington to fight climate change. Washington politicians like Curbelo care more about scoring political points than about doing what's right."

Mucarsel-Powell added that she would move to "end our dependence on fossil fuels" and support Florida obtaining 100 percent of its energy from renewable sources, emphasizing the state's abundant solar power. She would not commit to joining the Climate Solutions Caucus, if elected.

Curbelo said he's focused on policies that could attract the support of both parties.

"The problem is that some of these environmental groups have been corrupted and are actually just extensions of the Democratic Party, and their goal is to elect more Democrats," he said. "That means they are holding out for the day when Democrats have 60 votes in the Senate, a majority in the House, and a Democratic president. So what they are doing by attacking the caucus is they are guaranteeing that we make no progress on environmental policy."

Check the record

Colleagues, and supporters, defend Curbelo's record, and his climate caucus. They say it’s unrealistic to expect significant climate policy under the Trump administration, which does not acknowledge, let alone prioritize, the issue. They also point to small victories, such as when most Republicans of the caucus joined with Democrats to defeat an amendment that would have blocked the Pentagon from studying climate change.

Curbelo has criticized the Trump administration for rolling back climate change regulations. He was also one of the first Republicans to call for former Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt’s exit over ethics and spending scandals.

"For a lot of people on the Republican side, climate denial is no longer tenable," said Joseph Majkut, a climate scientist with the Niskanen Center, a libertarian group that helped Curbelo write his carbon tax bill. "They are uncomfortable with it. The party is aging out of it."

Monroe County Commissioner Heather Carruthers, a Democrat, credits Curbelo for trying to do something about climate change, even if he can’t always deliver.

She is supporting Curbelo’s opponent, Mucarsel-Powell, but not because of his environmental record.

“I’ll admit he has been really good on lots of aspects of the environment,” Carruthers said. “I like Carlos, and we have worked on a lot of things together in the past. But we just need change faster than it’s coming.”

'Relentless' advocate

Curbelo’s Republican climate caucus colleagues credit his persistent, but subtle, style for encouraging them to join the group, and take the issue seriously.

They say he’s good at connecting the impacts of climate change to local districts, rather than forcing the challenges of South Florida onto them.

“If it wasn't for Carlos being completely relentless in talking about it, I am not sure I would have looked at it seriously and found a way to help,” said Rep. Mia Love, the only House member from the conservative state of Utah in the climate caucus.

Love said Curbelo inspired her to seek out the views of Olympic athletes who worry the warming climate could damage Utah’s prospects for hosting the Winter Games in 2030.

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., a 44-year-old facing re-election in a swing district, said he appreciates Curbelo for not closing off the caucus to members who may not share his specific policy views.

All but six House Republicans recently voted for a GOP-leadership backed measure rejecting the concept of a carbon tax.

"The best thing about Carlos is his approach," said Fitzpatrick, a former FBI agent who is one of two Republican co-sponsors of Curbelo’s carbon tax bill. “He talks a lot about getting away from the era of deniers and alarmists, and taking a reasonable pragmatic approach to an issue that affects every single person, not just in this country, but around the globe.”

Gaetz may be the best example of Curbelo’s open-door approach. He once proposed legislation to abolish the EPA.

“The truth is joining was a political liability for me, but I fear the judgment of history on climate change more than the outcome of an election, and I didn't come to Washington to argue with a thermometer,” Gaetz said. “It was encouraging and comforting that Curbelo would be accepting of my nuanced view on environmental reform, which is supporting innovation and not regulation.”

Democrats in the climate caucus also defend Curbelo’s record, and say it would be a setback for bipartisan congressional action on climate change if he were to lose his seat in Congress.

“I really appreciate Curbelo’s work on climate change,” said Rep. Stephanie Murphy, a Democrat who faces a tough re-election race in her central Florida swing district. “I appreciate any member who wants to legislate on facts and science rather than politics."

The future that matters

Because he is so widely identified as the Republican environmental guru, colleagues fear the consequences for climate change action if Curbelo lost his race.

“It would not be a good thing to lose Carlos Curbelo,” said Rep. Tom Reed, R-N.Y. “We need Carlos because of the foundation work he has laid. Only someone like that can use that political capital to have a chance at getting things done.”

Curbelo says he wants to be a part of ensuring a future for his constituents, to help keep their home something resembling a paradise. If he wins, he has a to-do list, including plans to travel to Republican and Democratic districts across the country to sell his carbon tax legislation.

“We have to do more,” Curbelo said. "I am very careful not to be an alarmist because I know I lose people when I do that. But we are running out of time.”

He shrugs at the prospect of losing an election, keeping his life in context to recognize the stakes aren’t so high.

“I am always ready to win or lose every election,” Curbelo said. “I happen to feel very good today, the best I have felt politically since I started running. But no one is indispensable. I happen to be in this position today for a number of different reasons, most of them random. This movement is unstoppable.”