Under Ted Thompson, the Green Bay Packers had very particular athletic thresholds that they valued at almost every position. After studying Thompson’s recent drafts, we can pinpoint which prospects would have been more or less likely to be drafted by the Thompson Packers. [By the draft, we mean the first four rounds. Nothing after the fourth round matters. After pick #133 this year, go hang out with your family. They miss you.]

Now, I know what you’re thinking: Why the hell should I care what Ted Thompson would have done if Brian Gutekunst is the team’s general manager now?

I have two answers:

The Thompson-style of drafting, with an emphasis on developmental athletes, did not happen by accident. He is a product of former Packers general manager Ron Wolf, who might be best known as Al Davis’ right-hand man with the Raiders. Because athleticism is valued in this Davis-Wolf-Thompson tree, it would be pretty surprising if Gutekunst, who became a scout under the Wolf administration and stayed in Green Bay through the entire Thompson administration, went against his wiring. Green Bay has added three major free agents this offseason: cornerback Tramon Williams (who returns to the team), tight end Jimmy Graham and defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson. All three of them passed through the athleticism thresholds, at least as prospects, for players that Thompson disproportionately targets in the draft. From this perspective, Gutekunst is closer to Thompson 2.0, a Thompson who acknowledges free agency, rather than a full-blown paradigm shift.

So, let’s get right into it. With these athletic filters, I believe it’s easier to map out who the Packers are more likely to target at running back, wide receiver, tight end, the offensive line, the defensive line, edge defender, and cornerback. The positions that I don’t believe Thompson had a type for during his run were quarterback (not very athleticism-dependent), off-ball linebacker (they almost never used top-four round picks at the position) and safety (where lesser and/or smaller athletes in the secondary typically play….beggars can’t be choosers to some extent.)

At the end of this article, I present my 2018 Packers Draft Board. But first, here is a breakdown of what I believe are the important historical numbers to use in determining their board:

Running Backs

● 4.55-second 40-yard dash

● 7.00-second three-cone

Running back, along with cornerback, is one of two positions with multiple outliers. Prior to last season, only Eddie Lacy, who was projected to go a full round before where the Packers drafted him, stood out like a sore thumb. While Jamaal Williams now joins him on that list, Brandon Jackson, Alex Green, Johnathan Franklin (RIP), James Starks, Aaron Jones and the traded-for Knile Davis all came from a specific mold.

Wide Receivers

● Height 5117 (an eighth-inch short of 6’0” in human talk)

● Weight 191 pounds

● 4.56-second 40-yard dash

● 7.08-second three-cone

The wide receiver mold for the Green Bay Packers is one of the most consistent under Thompson. For a decade, he was drafting the same athlete over and over again. He didn’t value top end height-weight-speed, but the Packers did filter out the low end. The one exception was Randall Cobb (height), who was projected to go about a round higher than when the Packers selected him.

Tight Ends

● 4.69-second 40-yard dash

Down to the Packers’ three tight end signings over the last three offseasons, they’ve been pretty consistent in valuing straight-line speed at the position. Only Richard Rodgers, who was as bad as a forced pick as I can recall in the Thompson era, breaks that mold. Before the 2014 draft, there was not one mock draft where Rodgers was a top-100 pick

After five tight ends came off the board in the first 65 picks of that draft, the tight end-needy Packers called their shot on Rodgers, seemingly after the well had dried up. Crockett Gillmore, another tight end, was picked one selection later. Another tight end didn’t have his name called for the next 56 picks. They needed a body and they didn’t get much more than that in return.

Offensive Linemen

● 1.80-second 10-yard split

● 7.70-second three-cone

● 4.75-second short shuttle

The offensive line, like wide receiver, has very strong tendencies. Down to late-round picks, the Packers continue to pull from a hyper-specific mold. It’s worth noting that every player on the list, other than Corey Linsley (college center), was also a college blindside tackle. Josh Sitton, at least for a stint at UCF, was a right tackle for a left-handed quarterback. Athletic, positionally-ambiguous former college tackles were one of the successes of Thompson’s run.

Defensive linemen

● Speed 40 (-0.30) [explained here]

● Agility (0.08) [explained here]

I used density-adjusted athleticism for defensive linemen and edge defenders because I would guess that’s how NFL teams would measure athleticism at these positions. Bodies can vary so much that you have to create a sliding scale on the defensive line of scrimmage, compared to more stationary filters at, say, receiver or cornerback (positions of space.)

As you can see, the only defensive lineman who doesn’t look like the rest on paper was Khyri Thornton, a former third-round pick who only lasted a year on the team. If you’re keeping track at home, the only real “hit” from the “broken mold” group of draft picks is Randall Cobb, who was essentially a sawed-off version of what they were already looking for. The other players who bucked the Packers’ trends didn’t make an impact on the team by the time their rookie contracts ran out.

Edge Defenders

● Speed 40 (-1.21)

● Agility (-0.65)

Four of the five picks that the Packers have spent on pass-rushers over the last nine seasons are still on the team. That’s as much of a reflection of how few times that they’ve gone to bat for outside linebackers as anything else.

Cornerbacks

● Height 5107 (an eighth-inch short of 5’11” in human talk)

● 4.57-second 40-yard dash

● 6.83-second three-cone

At this point, it’s impossible not to notice the Packers filtering out shorter cornerbacks. While they don’t demand elite long speed (though they do tend to move slower cornerbacks into the slot), they have drafted quality three-cone times almost exclusively. The exceptions are Pat Lee and Quinten Rollins, who were both second-round picks and have started a combined 16 games for Green Bay over their careers.

What the 2018 Green Bay Packers Board Could Look Like

Below is a horizontal board (split by position) of players who haven’t failed the Packers’ filters for their positions. The grades assigned came from NFLDraftScout.com, not my own personal thoughts on these players. If we follow the Green Bay filters described above strictly, this is our cheatsheet to the first two days of the draft.

Color Significance:

● Green: Completely passed athletic filters.

● Yellow: Partially passed athletic filters.

● Grey: Not enough information.

Click on the image for a larger version:

With that being said, let’s be Use-Your-Brain All-Stars here. If a player is 0.03 seconds off on a three-cone, I don’t think we have to throw these filters out the window. If that’s the furthest that Gutekunst strays from Thompson’s draft tendencies, we can always adjust these filters by hundredths of a second or next draft cycle. Two cornerbacks, Iowa’s Josh Jackson and Boston College’s Isaac Yiadom, were the players who came to mind when I was crunching these numbers. They were both slightly slower in the three-cone than what Thompson typically targeted, but when a team needs cornerback help as much as the Packers do currently…..I’m not sure it matters.

Happy draft week! Spend time with your kids on Day 3! Remember that the draft is four rounds!