How to BRich: Ownership rates on Fan Duel week 4

by Benny11 DFS BRich11,

Hey All, it’s Friday again, so that means it’s time to kick back with a few beers to start your weekend and get a jump on those DF NFL contest for this weekend. As always I played a $1 entry into the Fan Duel dive (57,471) entries to check ownership percentages. For those of you new to the column, I use the dive because it has the exact same amount of entries as the Sunday Millions and ultimately that is the tournament we all want to take down. The Thursday game saw higher then usual usage rates as the combined ownership at the QB position alone was almost 30%. The reason that is important is because those Giants and Skins are no longer available for Sunday’s player pool and those who rostered them are going to have to swerve onto someone else. Standard disclaimer that Injury reports will also skew these numbers. Guys like Cam Newton and Brandon Marshall are 0.4% and 1.5% respectively, but if the news is positive that may change. Jamal Charles and Knile Davis are two other guys whose ownership could spike or fall based on their status. There’s no way to predict exactly how high those ownership rates could climb, so keep that in mind when making your rosters. Here’s the results:

High Owned Guys

QB

Phillip Rivers 16.1%

Matt Ryan 8%

Andrew Luck 7%

Ben Roethlisberger 5.7%

RB

LeVeon Bell 26.3%

Donald Brown 24.3%

Ahmad Bradshaw 16.7%

Demarco Murray 16.3%

Lamar Miller 14.3%

Darren Sproles 7%

Matt Forte 6.8%

WR

Antonio Brown 29%

Julio Jones 21.6%

Steve Smith 17.5%

Julian Edelman 15.6%

Kelvin Benjamin 12.6%

Brandin Cooks 11.7%

Calvin Johnson 11.5%

Jordy Nelson 9.6%

Michael Crabtree 9.3%

Dez Bryant 9.2%

Jeremy Maclin 8.6%

Alshon Jeffries 7.7%

TE

Martellus Bennett 15.8%

Jimmy Graham 15.4%

Antonio Gates 14.8%

Defense

Pittsburgh 18.9%

Atlanta 10.3%

Analysis

There are a couple things that stand out to me here. For starters people Love San Diego this weekend. I can definitely get on board with Phillip Rivers against the Jags. I’m not sure I like his ownership percentages though. If he’s 16% with 1/3 of the field on Eli and Cousins, then he is going to be over 20% come Sunday and that’s just not an ownership percentage I like for any QB. If he hits it doesn’t guarantee you a cash, so it’s a tough arguement to make in my eyes. I actually like his high owned TE, Antonio Gates even less. Gates saw less looks last week overall and in the red zone then his younger couterpart Ladarius Green. I’m not saying that is a rock solid trend that will continue, but the uncertainty gives me pause. Gates could have a huge game this weekend, but so could Green. I don’t like playing russian roulette like that with any spot on my roster.

At RB this week there seems to be a lot of people all on the same guys. The top two priced options of Bell and Murray are very widely used. Both are studs, both have + match ups and I can’t argue with using either. I prefer Bell to Murray, but honestly can not knock you for either. Matt Forte has a tough Match up so I would shy away from him, but he is an option I guess based on usage alone in the passing game. Like him better on a PPR site then FD, but to each his own. The low cost guys this week also seem to be popular. Coming off a 30+ carry performance has everyone using Donald Brown. No arguments with usage, but at 2 yard a carry he will need 50 of them to get 100. What has me perplexed is that everyone is using Chargers either at QB and WR/TE or at RB paired with the defense. I know Jags are not great, but are they bad enough that San Diego is a lock to dominate them? If you think so, then join the masses and roster those Chargers, but I’m not convinced. Lamar Miller is going to burn a lot of people this weekend in my opinion. I’ve seen this story before and he is so inconsistent. He has had other 100 yard games in his past, but he also has followed those up with 30/40 yard performances with no TDs that just kill your rosters. If he was low owned I might roll the dice, but at this rate I will try to find someone who can outscore him. If I was looking, Sproles and Bradshaw would be two guys I might choose to swerve on. I prefer Bradshaw, because while both have averaged 15-20 points so far, Bradshaw looks like he has the more reliable floor. He is the back up in name only at this point as everyone knows he has outplayed T. Rich, the listed starter. Bradshaw catches a few passes and gets a few carries and has the added bonus of also handling some of the punt duties. He is the passing down back and gets some carries in the flow of the game as well. He plays more snaps at this point then T. Rich so he makes sense as a low priced guy for me.

At WR, we see a lot of points chasing. Brown, Benjamin, Julio, and Smith Sr. have all seen their ownership rates triple. It is not a bad thing, but they won’t be the guys to carry you over the hump this week if they are that popular. They may help you, but at almost 30% for Antonio Brown he could still go off for a big day and not help you cash. I also found it interesting that Bennett is higher owned the Graham. Jimmy is the man and despite his price being elevated over Bennett, I still like him better. If Marshall is out I think Martellus becomes even more popular and only stregthens the case to take Graham in my eyes.

Low Owned Guys

QB

Matt Stafford 3.7%

Tony Romo 3.4%

Teddy Bridgewater 3.4%

Colin Kaepernick 3.2%

Nick Foles 2.3%

Blake Bortles 2.3%

RB

Khiry Robinson 5.1%

Pierre Thomas 4.1%

Matt Assiata 3.8%

Eddie Lacy 3.6%

Fred Jackson 3.1%

Reggie Bush 2.7%

Chris Ivory 2.6%

Frank Gore 2.4%

WR

Keenan Allen 6.5%

Golden Tate 6.1%

DeAndre Hopkins 5.8%

Cordarelle Patterson 4.8%

Eddie Royal 4.2%

Malcolm Floyd 3.7%

Jeremy Kerley 3.3%

TY Hilton 1.7%

Brandon Marshall 1.5%

Cecil Shorts 1.5%

Allen Robinson 1.4%

TE

Gronk 2.9%

Zac Ertz 2.6%

Delanie Walker 2.4%

Vernon Davis 1.3%

Analysis

Let’s start with QB as that stands out the most to me. Foles, Kap, and Stafford are all under owned in my eyes. Stafford gets a putrid Jets secondary and that analysis comes from a DIEHARD Jets fan (Benny and the Jets). No doubt in my mind he has a good game with or without Megatron as the way to beat the Jets is through the air and his OC would be a moron to not try to do so. Foles and Kap shapes up a lot like last week. Cousins performance last night proves that there is merit in targeting QBs against the Philly Defense. A half decent Giant defense made him look real bad last night and the 22.5% of people on him were chasing his performance from last week. Eagles pace takes a toll on their Defense as well as the opposition and I would be shocked if Kap didn’t have some pretty good numbers. Remember too that although I think SF wins this game, the Eagles are also a team to target. As bad as that D is, the offense is pretty Legit. Nick foles has thrown for about 300 yards and 3 TDs every game so far and honestly from watching those games he really has not played well. If he misses a few less throws those numbers could easily hit 400 and 4 TDs which would just be a sick day for DF purposes. The last item for review is the Bridgeater vs. Bortles decision. Teddy seemed to be a little bit higher owned which makes sense as he is at home, but from what I saw in Bortles limited action last week, this guy is a QB. He throws it with zip, finds the tight windows, and made good decisions last week. I like Bortles more, but can not fault those who go the other way. Price is just too juicy not to consider for your GPPs.

Of all the RB listed only two are interesting to me. Matt Assiata is literally the only option left in Minnesota for carries. He’s more of a plodder and he won’t break any long runs, but if he gets 20 carries and a few catches he could easily pay off his low price. Do I love him? No, but I like him as a swerve over a 25% owned Donald Brown. The more interesting back to me is Eddie Lacy. The story for Lacy goes like this. He has faced 3 of the best run defenses in all of football to start this season. He has not had success against any of them as could be expected. This week he gets a softer spot and his price and ownership are very depressed. That all adds up to a potential boom for me. He could have another bad game, no doubt, but if he gets anyway near the 1000 yard 10 TD projected floor people had for him this season, then he could have 100 and a TD at under $6K.

WR is all over the map this week and I’m not loving a lot of these guys. Cordarelle gets a rookie QB so there is no certainty there. DeAndre Hopkins had a big week, so the johnny come latelies will be all over him and I honestly prefer Andre Johnson if I had to pick one, and I probably will not be choosing either. San Diego has people on all three WRs in Keenan Allen, Eddie Royal, and Malcolm Floyd. Throw in the ownership on Gates and Green and there’s literally five guys people are looking to for a big game. When I have more then one WR on a team I like, then that means there is no one I really love. Since winning requires maxing points, I would not use any of those guys unless it was just a GPP price play punt. Same goes for Jacksonville. I already said I prefer Bortles, but who do you pair with him? Hearns, Robinson, and Shorts are all candidates and if I had to pick one it would be Robinson. With that being said though I could see any or none of them having a great day. It’s risky, but rostering chalk is not winning anyone a GPP lately, so risk does equal reward.

TE seems to have a lot of potential to differentiate. Gronk under 3%, Davis under 1.5% are my two favorite plays. Ertz is getting less looks as the season goes along, so I will not be on him. Let someone else fall for that trap. He may catch a TD, but I don’t see 8 catch, 100 yard upside from him. Maybe he proves me wrong this week, but it will definitely be without me on him and I can easily live with that.

The TAKEAWAY

I will probably have some exposure to Kap, Foles, and Stafford given what I see here. I expect these rates to be higher as 30% of people who were on Eli and Cousins need to swerve off of them now. My guess is Kap gets the biggest boost just because he is cheap, but do not sleep on Foles and definitely do not sleep on Stafford either. We sometimes get so bogged down in all the analysis and pundits and do not stop to think about some stuff when we make our rosters. Yeah Det/GB looked likely to be a shootout last week, but I told you Friday that Calvin and Jordy were obnoxiously high owned. If you swerved to the second highest O/U game then instead of 15% QBs and 20%+ owned WR,, you got guys owned 7-10% range with receivers around the same. Again here, this is not rocket science, just look at the lines. Looking at the Vegas lines and targeting the guys who are the lowest owned in the highest expected scoring game is the definition of putting yourself on the right side of variance. I’m not saying some of the top owned guys are not better players on paper, but if you can save a few books and have your choice outperform the highest owned guy at that position, then you have a lead over those who took the chalk and most likely more cash to spend elsewhere. That little differentiation could be the winning edge. With that being said, I have a hard time telling anyone to fade Murray, Bell, or Graham this weekend, so you may have to punt somewhere to fit two or all three of those guys in. Good Luck grinders, let’s take down some of these big Prize pools this weekend.