As a result of the not entirely unexpected setback for Arsenal at the Allianz Arena in midweek, Manchester City are now the Premier League’s best hope for Champions League success. They have to be, as they are neither 5-1 down from the first leg nor in danger of relegation like Leicester. This perception may change as soon as their last-16 tie with Monaco starts on Tuesday, though at least Pep Guardiola’s side get to play the first leg at home and ought to have a reasonable chance of keeping interest alive until the return game next month.

That said, a couple of clouds have scudded across the Etihad horizon since victory at Bournemouth on Monday took them back to second in the domestic table. One was the sight of Gabriel Jesus on crutches the next day, confirmation of a metatarsal fracture leading to fears that his first season in England could be over already. The second came a few hours later with Paris Saint-Germain’s impressive 4-0 defeat of Barcelona.

City, too, have beaten Barcelona this season, though never in any of their Champions League meetings in recent years have they posted a result likely to put Guardiola’s former club out of the competition. PSG are clearly responding positively to Unai Emery’s coaching, but anyone checking the Ligue 1 table to see how well they are doing at home would have discovered they are not going quite as well as Monaco.

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While Tottenham already know how dangerous Monaco can be this season, Mancunians might not be ready to recognise an attack led by Radamel Falcao as a threat to European progress. The Colombian endured a miserable season on loan at Old Trafford two years ago and was no better at Chelsea the following season, though it should be remembered that he was still recovering from a serious cruciate injury when he came to England, and when José Mourinho gave him a chance at Stamford Bridge he did so because he was convinced Manchester United had not seen the real Falcao during his time at the club.

That second loan did not work out for either party, though there is evidence that the real Falcao has re-emerged this season back with Monaco. At 31 and with a history of injuries the striker may no longer have the leading names around Europe clamouring for his services, but his scoring rate –almost a goal an hour in the French league – tells its own story.

Falcao played with Diego Costa for Atlético Madrid, but when the Spanish club made him the most expensive player in their history in 2011 the striker he replaced was Sergio Agüero. The Argentinian has hardly been a flop in his six seasons at Manchester City, where his ratio of goals to games has been even better than it was in Spain. Yet if he starts against Monaco it will because Jesus is missing.

Guardiola unceremoniously dropped Agüero when the new arrival from Brazil was ready to play, and though he said all the right things about the deposed striker’s value to the team and reliability as a goalscorer, he did not attempt to deny that his new preference was for a fluid, running front three of Jesus, Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane.

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The City manager even said that he would understand if Agüero decided to leave at the end of the season, and he still might, because presumably when Jesus returns he will be back on the bench and that is not where a 28-year-old striker at the peak of his powers needs to be. What happened to Jesus in the early stages of the game at Dean Court is going to test the professionalism of both Agüero and his manager between now and the end of the season, as well as their ability to make a compromise work.

City are not seriously weakened by the absence of a player they used just in three full games, even if Jesus did manage three goals. With Agüero as attacking spearhead they started the season well enough, though it was ominous when Guardiola declined to go along the Manuel Pellegrini route of claiming he was almost at the level of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo and indicated instead that he wanted more from his player.

Playing without Agüero made City more spontaneous and unpredictable, with Jesus quickly picking up on the speed and movement of those around him. What happened at Bournemouth must be frustrating for Guardiola, though not nearly so frustrating as for Jesus. Agüero is probably not whistling a happy tune either, yet at least he now has an opportunity to show his true worth. City need to think on their feet and keep moving forward. Even with the future on hold the present still has plenty to offer.