What makes a great goal scorer? The obvious answer (and probably the correct one) is that he scores goals. However, that can often be an oversimplified version of the truth. Say player A scores 20 goals in a season but takes 15 shots a game, while player B scores 15 goals in a season, while shooting only 3 times a game. What if player A can only play 60% of his teams games? How do we determine which player is truly a better goal scorer? Well, that’s what I wanted to find out.

First, I picked out which stats I feel are important to a goal scorer. They are: Goals per 90, Shots per 90, Shots on Target per 90, Shot % (goals/shots), Scoring % (goals/SoT), and SoT%(SoT/shots). In order to determine which of these statistics are more important, I looked at which stats on the team basis most correlate to points. I found that goals per 90 and shot % were the most important, followed by shots per 90, shots on target per 90, and scoring %, and lastly SoT%. As in previous projects, I decided to rank each player based on how they compared against the rest of the players for each category. Then, using weights determined by the correlation of each statistic to winning, I was able to calculate each players Goal Scorer Rating. Finally, I was able to calculate a weighted score for each player based on the percentage of minutes they played throughout the season.

Based on my ratings (and unsurprising to anyone who follows the EPL), Kun Aguero comes in as the top goal scorer in the league in both unweighted and weighted scores. Aguero gets off the most shots per 90 in the league, as well as scores the most goals per 90. He also has a very high scoring % and SoT%. Diego Costa had the second highest unweighted score, but his lack of minutes due to injury problems hurt his weighted score. On the flip side, QPR’s Charlie Austin had the 7th best unweighted score, but finished 3rd in weighted score due to his high percentage of minutes played. Wilfried Bony proved to be an interesting case, as his unweighted score was near the tops in the league, but his time on the bench at City dropped his weighted score to near the bottom of the list.

As the transfer window comes to a close in a month or so, I feel that these ratings can be an important factor in evaluating each player’s production. If I am a manager looking for a goal scorer to play week in week out, the weighted rating is incredibly important. However, if I have several goal scoring options at my disposal and simply need another to rotate, the unweighted Goal Scorer Rating may be more useful. In either case, the Goal Scorer Rating can provide another tool in player evaluation.

Below are the EPL goal scorers that I found to have an unweighted rating of 50 or more.

(Chart made using Tableau Public)