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“As we continue to demonstrate that our cost savings that we’ve seen in 2015 are sustained, I will then make decisions on reactivating these oilsands projects which remain the core of our business.”

Ferguson was one of four oilsands executives who shared the stage last month when Premier Rachel Notley unveiled new climate change policies, including a 100-megatonne hard cap on overall oilsands greenhouse gas emissions. Total emissions now are about 70 megatonnes.

Photo by Supplied / CENOVUS ENERGY INC.

Asked if Cenovus felt pressure to accelerate development to get it done under the cap, the CEO pointed out that with expected approval of Phase H at Christina Lake, the company will have a total of more than 600,000 barrels per day of net existing or approved production.

Because of that, he said, the emissions cap is expected to have “no material impact” on the company.

Cenovus shares closed down 33 cents at $18.35 on Thursday. They’ve traded between $15.75 and $26.42 in the past 52 weeks.

In a note to investors, analyst Arthur Grayfer of CIBC World Markets rated the guidance “slightly negative.”

Predicted production of 272,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2016 is below CIBC and consensus expectations, he said, and operating costs are higher because of maintenance turnarounds and higher steam-oil ratios associated with startup of the thermal oilsands expansion phases.

“A saving grace for the company is an expected cash tax recovery of about $100 million, compared to our estimate of a cost of about $100 million,” the note says. “At first blush, the cash tax recovery more than offsets the impact of lower production and higher opex, with a slight positive effect on strip cash flow.”