Speculation has been running riot in Westminster that Theresa May will go to the country, perhaps in just a matter of weeks.

In a meeting held between party chairman Patrick McLoughlin, the Chief Whip Gavin Williamson and Mrs May's aide George Hollingbery, reports suggested they even discussed a date of 4 May.

Downing Street and Mrs May continue to deny this is the plan, and insist she will wait until 2020.

On Monday, the Prime Minister's spokesman went so far as to say "it isn't going to happen".

Why not? On the face of it, the reasons are stacking up to go ahead.


Most obviously, the Tories have a commanding lead in the polls - up to 19 points recently - and the chance to win a raft of Labour seats, which would help with getting legislation through.

The embarrassing U-turn over the Budget plan to increase National Insurance for the self-employed was forced by some 20 backbenchers saying they would not back it.

:: Chancellor announces U-turn on NI tax rises

A small majority will continue to be a problem as tricky Brexit legislation goes through Parliament and Mrs May tries to get her domestic priorities, like grammar schools, past some reluctant colleagues.

Corbyn calls for Labour to unite

Then there is the boost it would provide in Europe.

Senior Conservatives, including former leader William Hague, have said she should bite the bullet in order to strengthen her negotiating hand by showing she has a strong mandate.

It would make it harder for MPs to knock back any deal Mrs May comes back with, or the timetable.

MPs are keenly aware there may not be a better time. The PM is still in the honeymoon period, enjoying high approval ratings, and Labour may yet replace Jeremy Corbyn with a more electable leader.

One veteran of the Gordon Brown era told me he can barely believe Mrs May is, in his view, making his old boss's mistake - squandering her best chance by being cautious.

In the past few days, pressure has escalated. Firstly, because of the Budget.

While the U-turn was a political misstep, it demonstrated how tightly Philip Hammond and Mrs May are hemmed in by previous commitments not to raise taxes - but to keep ring-fences around schools, the police and international aid.

An election would be a chance to set her own manifesto.

The second is the election expenses row, which raises the troubling prospect of by-elections in key seats.

There is a strong case to win them again while support for the Conservatives is high; Labour and Ukip are in disarray and the Lib Dems far from full strength.

Securing an election is harder than it used to be.

The Fixed Term Parliaments Act requires a two-thirds majority of MPs, but Mr Corbyn has made clear that Labour would back a snap election.

Some of his MPs would positively relish the prospect of ousting him and just the speculation has already triggered a fresh round of infighting.

'All our energies should be focused' on Brexit

On 4 May there are council elections in England, Scotland and Wales. To go that early, Mrs May would need to announce it when triggering Article 50 in just over a week's time, which still looks like a very long shot.

So, why is Mrs May so insistent that she won't have a poll? Because there are also compelling reasons not to.

:: Sturgeon: Scotland will keep the pound... to start

With Brexit triggered, scrutiny of Mrs May's strategy and Britain's economic prospects would escalate. Tensions under the surface in the Conservative party could come to the fore.

While many Tories are chomping at the bit to take the fight to Labour, I've spoken to several who are worried about the Richmond by-election effect - losing Remain-leaning seats to the Lib Dems.

Recent developments in Scotland have also complicated the picture. Some MPs say an elected Prime Minister would have renewed authority to refuse a second referendum.

But if the SNP keep all of their existing seats, that could be seen as a mandate for their plans for the new referendum, which is the last thing that Mrs May wants.

The Prime Minister has repeatedly ruled out a General Election, on the grounds that the public want stability.

It would require a major change of heart. But the events of the next few weeks could test the case for holding out.