The easy scapegoat here is APG — the industry guys signing the local scene king for whatever he’d take. But in fact, it seems there’s no one party totally responsible for what’s become of Thug’s deal. “There are things that Young Thug could have done that he didn’t do,” Jordan said. “He wouldn’t take the time to go meet with a lawyer.” (Young Thug did not respond to multiple inquiries, through reps, to comment for this story.)

This type of situation — an artist signing a production deal, then joining up with a major label — is not uncommon, and usually wouldn’t be an issue, if the original deal-holder was able to negotiate the terms of the new deal. But by implying he was a free agent when he signed with APG, Young Thug essentially forced an unintended partnership between APG and Gucci Mane, without either party’s consent. “Gucci Mane was supposed to negotiate what label Thug would have ended up on, but that didn’t happen,” Jordan said.

It didn’t help that Gucci Mane and Atlantic already had a particularly sticky relationship. Gucci Mane was once signed to Atlantic as a solo act, and his boutique imprint 1017 Brick Squad was distributed by Atlantic. But after his September 2013 breakdown, during which he insulted Atlantic on Twitter, Gucci reportedly was dropped from Atlantic. (The relationship of Gucci Mane’s 1017 label to Atlantic is now unclear — one label rep told Billboard that 1017 Brick Squad is still an Atlantic imprint; another reached by BuzzFeed said “1017 is not a part of Atlantic.” It’s possible that 1017 Brick Squad is operated independently but somehow backed by Atlantic’s parent company, Warner Music Group — perhaps via the Warner-owned distribution arm Alternative Distribution Alliance.)

According to Jordan, APG realized that Thug had a pre-existing deal with Gucci Mane around Thanksgiving 2013. “They thought Gucci was crazy and that he didn’t actually have paperwork signed with Thug,” Jordan said. “Then Gucci produced the paperwork.” That's when Jeff Vaughn, the A&R who brought Thug into APG, called Thug a liar, according to Jordan. (Vaughn declined to speak with BuzzFeed for this story.)

After that incident, APG’s working relationship with Thug unraveled quickly, and Thug’s star rose rapidly. In January, while Kanye was dancing to Thug at clubs, Thug fired his manager, Marcos Rippy, who had brokered the deal with APG. “Other people started getting into Thug’s ear saying they could get him out of the deal,” Jordan said.

In late January, Thug tried to shop for new contracts with a new manager, Akon's brother Abou “Bu” Thiam, and the senior VP of A&R at Columbia Records, Shawn “Tubby” Holiday — who helped create the summer smash “Blurred Lines” as Robin Thicke’s manager — spent time with Young Thug in the studio. “We were interested,” Holiday said. “I think [Thug is] a good artist for a major label; he knows how to make good melodies and he’s got a song that can work not only in the club but also on radio. But he was already signed.”

For Thug to get out of the APG deal, according to Jordan, APG would have to willingly terminate the contract, or Thug would have to fulfill the obligations of the contract — to record and release music. Even so, Thug continued to speak as if he was clear to get out of the APG deal and move elsewhere. During a radio interview with Atlanta’s DJ Drama in January, Thug said he had signed with rapper Future’s Freebandz label, an imprint of the major label Epic, which is owned by Sony.

After just a couple of weeks, Young Thug and Bu parted ways. According to multiple sources, Birdman — the Cash Money Records mogul best known for guiding the careers of Lil Wayne, Nicki Minaj, and Drake — came on as Young Thug’s manager in February.

Birdman's crew YMCMB is “the best imaginable fit for [Thug]," former manager Rippy told BuzzFeed. "He’s been dreaming of working with those guys his whole life.” When asked about his label allegiances these days, Thug trumpets this new affiliation. “Rich Gang to the death,” he said in a March interview with The Fader, referring to the name of Birdman’s management company. (A rep for Birdman said he was unavailable to comment for this story.)

It’s uncertain what Thug, with the backing of his idols, will do now. Thug’s friends have been releasing new Thug songs online, apparently against the will of APG. “They want him to stop putting out music, because they want the focus of Young Thug to be on 'Stoner,'” Jordan said. “But Young Thug’s gonna do what Young Thug’s gonna do.”

All of this uncertainty has become a part of Thug’s appeal. “Isn’t his charm, at least for now, his being fundamentally unwrangleable?” critic Caramanica asked. “You don’t wanna create some romantic idea of a guy who’s an outlaw from the system, but I like the fact that he seems to be operating a bit in the void right now.”

Jordan hypothesized that Atlantic, perhaps now feeling that Thug is a smaller “risk” than it once thought, may try to shift Thug from APG to 300, the new label from veteran executives Lyor Cohen, Todd Moscowitz, and Kevin Liles, which will be distributed by Atlantic. Backed with funding from Google and working with data from Twitter to sniff out trends early, 300 aims to help self-sufficient artists reach new heights, while working with fewer people and less bureaucracy than a traditional record company.

According to Jordan, it may be possible for 300 to sign Young Thug because 300 is in the Atlantic system, and has more sway over Atlantic chairs Craig Kallman and Julie Greenwald than APG CEO Mike Caren. “[Lyor] could go in there and be like, ‘I’ll do the deal with 300, I’ll keep Mike involved and I’ll give Thug and additional advance to keep him happy,'” Jordan said. If Thug does sign a deal with 300, it seems that Gucci Mane will remain involved in some capacity too. “He’ll continue to get money from it and he’ll earn some money up front,” Jordan said. (Through a PR rep, 300 declined to speak with BuzzFeed.)

In the meantime, a Gucci Mane and Young Thug joint album will be released on April 1. (The songs on it were recorded in the summer 2013, before Gucci Mane went to jail, according to the Atlanta publicist.) Another producer, Metro Boomin, will independently release an album of songs he recorded with Thug, under the moniker Metro Thuggin, this spring. Young Thug and Atlanta rapper Rich Homie Quan — who also has a complicated label situation — have plans to release a joint project too, tentatively titled Rich Homie Thug, though they appear uncertain about when they’ll be able to put it out, or whether or not they’ll be able to charge for it: “Coming out, a Rich tape, ain’t gonna tell y’all when. It might be an EP; might not even give y’all no more free music,” Quan said in a March video interview. Standing at his side, Thug looked off in the distance and tossed his head to the side, thinking. “Fans first,” he added wistfully.