Throughout my time seriously watching the NBA, the best part about being a Lakers fan was the sense that a potential championship was not far away. An unbalanced trade returning an All-Star (Pau) or big free agent signings (Shaq) were just business as usual. The last team that was remotely a contender was the 2011 team, which was full of aging, overpriced players, and a coach that was ready to retire. Since that season, the management team has conducted business like they were on the cusp of a title, when in reality, they were getting further and further away.

To really understand why the Lakers are one of the worst franchises in the NBA, we need to channel our inner Jack Shepard.

Enter the summer of 2013. The Lakers were destroyed (4-1) by the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2nd round of the playoffs, and they knew wholesale changes needed to be made. I am sure the management team saw a young Thunder team with two All-NBA players and the Miami Heat with 3 Hall of Fame level players, and knew to contend anytime soon, they had to get an infusion of All-Start talent. In typical Laker fashion, they actually pulled it off (sort of). The Lakers acquired Chris Paul from the New Orleans Hornets in a three-team trade with the Houston Rockets. I remember celebrating, knowing that the next chip to fall was Dwight Howard. The trio (hate the term "big-three") of Kobe, Paul, and Howard would be able to contend with the Thunder and Heat. Then, in a blink, the future fell apart. Commissioner Stern vetoed the Chris Paul trade and Lakers were left scrambling. After losing one All-Star point guard, the Lakers decided to pursue another, Steve Nash. Though Steve Nash is a first-ballot Hall of Fame player, he was well past his prime at that point and would give the Lakers the worst defensive backcourt in recent memory. To acquire Steve Nash, the Lakers traded the pick that we will all be so worried about losing draft night, but if the Lakers had gotten one more title, it would have been worth it. Later that summer, the Lakers traded Andrew Bynum to the 76ers in a four-team trade with the Nuggets and Magic to acquire Dwight Howard. The Lakers were geared for a few title runs, then a new future with Dwight Howard as the centerpiece, and then reality set in.

Though obviously full of talent, the 2013 Lakers roster was full of pieces that didn’t fit together. Steve Nash wanted to emulate the "pace and space" system of the Phoenix Suns, Dwight Howard wanted to post-up like the Laker big-men of yore, Pau Gasol didn’t want to shoot 3s and guard power-forwards, and Kobe wanted to be Kobe. After firing Mike Brown 5 games into the season, and a quick stint by Bernie Bickerstaff, the Lakers hired Mike D’Antoni. Even though I should have hated the mid-late 2000s Suns, I loved them. D’Antoni and Steve Nash engineered a style of basketball that has inspired much of the way the modern game is played. That being said, D’Antoni was another piece that didn’t fit the puzzle. After a season full of unhappiness and injuries, sans Kobe due to him tearing his Achilles (which spawned the best commercial I’ve ever seen), the Lakers were swept by the Spurs and the idea of one final Kobe title was dead.

With Kobe injured and never being the same, Steve Nash a shell of his former self and Dwight Howard departing for the Rockets in free agency, the Lakers started their downward spiral that continues to this day.

Now, back to the present…

This offseason is going to be pivotal for the Lakers. If they are able to keep their pick and get a top 3 player, they will have one of the most promising young cores in the NBA. Even if they lose their pick, Russell, Randle, Clarkson, and Nance is still a pretty decent young core. The real decision the Lakers face this offseason is whether to try to turn their young assets into veteran players to try to compete now, or continue their rebuilding effort by building a winning culture around the players already on the roster.

As a Lakers fan, I will be devastated if they decide to go the route they always have. Even the Lakers haven’t been able to build a championship team without acquiring a star through the draft. Though their best player at certain points may have been acquired by trade or through free agency (Kareem/Shaq), players they drafted (or traded for on draft day) remain the players most synonymous with the Lakers Franchise. In my opinion, seeing players evolve through their career and witnessing success with the players you have watched for extended periods of time is the best feeling a fan can have. Yes, winning is always fun, but winning with mercenaries doesn’t mean as much in my eyes. I want to delve into what I think is the best route for the Lakers this summer, as this it is a fork in the road that will likely change the direction of the franchise.

Coaching Search

If the Lakers bring back coach Byron Scott, this whole article will be for nothing. The success of a team hinges on the players and the coach to create a culture that promotes growth and learning. Byron Scott has created a toxic environment where the younger players are not being developed properly. His antiquated approach to basketball has failed him at his last three stops as head coach and I will be overly surprised if he ever gets another head coaching position again.

I am not going to predict or make a pitch for a particular coach, but I will make an assessment about what type of coach the Lakers should be searching for. Firstly, the new coach should be willing to accept and use analytics in their game preparation. Failure to use all information available is a sure way to start every game you play at a disadvantage. Secondly, the coach should have a defined style that he can adapt to gel with the roster he has. A good example of this is what Steve Clifford did with the Bobcats/Hornets. Clifford is a coach that wants to play with space and shoot three pointers, but in his first year as coach the roster was not set-up to do that. They were a team with very little offensive talent outside of Al Jefferson, so he modified his system to allow Al Jefferson to be the primary offensive focus. On the back of great defense and smart play, a team with little talent made it to the playoffs. Steve Clifford’s ability to adapt was a huge part of that team’s relative success. Finally, the coach needs to be a good developer of talent. Having the greatest Xs and Os coach of all-time would still not have this Lakers team contending. The future can be very bright for this team, as long as Russell/Clarkson/Randle/Nance are all properly developed, which starts with having a coach who believes in them.

I’m sure there are many coaches in the league that fit the above billing, but the important thing is that the Lakers identify a coach that they think can move the team on from these dismal last couple of years and into a new era of hope.

The Draft

First, the draft is a huge pivot point in itself. By now, everyone knows that the Lakers will lose their pick if it falls outside of the top 3 (They have about a 55% chance to keep their pick). Another interesting subplot is how will each of the three possible picks affect the Lakers strategy going forward. Below is a breakdown of how each of the three picks could potential change the Lakers’ strategy.

Lakers Receive the First Overall Pick:

This would make the year of suffering worth it. I know there has been dissenting opinions about who should be the first overall pick between Ben Simmons (LSU) and Brandon Ingram (Duke). While I believe Brandon Ingram will be a really good NBA player, Ben Simmons has legitimate star potential. His ability to handle the ball, attack the basket, and find open teammates are nearly unheard of at his size. If his jump shot can improve, he will be a multi-time All-Star. Picking Simmons does pose one problem; I don’t think both he and Julius Randle can play together long-term. Ben Simmons is born to be a modern NBA Power Forward and Julius Randle’s lack of length and explosive athleticism will not allow him to play Center in long stretches. If the Lakers do pick Ben Simmons, I would shop Julius Randle around for a young natural center (Willie Cauley-Stein would be ideal) or a wing defender who isn’t a complete liability on offense. A team with D’Angelo Russell and Ben Simmons would be an exhibition of great passing, as long as the coach institutes a system that facilitates their creativity.

Lakers Receive the Second Overall Pick:

This assumes that Ben Simmons goes first overall, but the Lakers would be ecstatic to get Brandon Ingram. He fits perfectly with their current core; he doesn’t need the ball all of the time, he can play both forward positions, and he can shoot three point shots with ease. He is positionally a much better fit than Simmons, but doesn’t have the superstar potential that you want at the very top of the draft. Picking Ingram would also give the Lakers an opportunity to pursue another ball-handler in free agency. If they were to have Russell, Simmons, and Clarkson on the roster, most of the ball handling duties will already be allotted.

Lakers Receive the Third Overall Pick:

This pick is much more interesting than the other options (though by far the least favorable). The 2016 draft has a steep fall off after the 2nd pick and there is no clear consensus on who is the 3rd best player. With no clear consensus, I lean toward taking a player who will fit positionally with the young talent the Lakers already have on the roster. The main needs for the Lakers currently are a wing that can shoot and defend and a mobile defensive center. This leads be to believe that the Lakers should be picking between Jaylen Brown (Cal), Jamal Murray (KY), Buddy Hield (OU), and Jakob Poeltl (Utah). Murray and Hield fit as two guards beside D’Angelo Russell if you (like I do) think that Jordan Clarkson is better off long-term as a 6th man. Jaylen Brown is a prototypical NBA Small-Forward with an NBA body already, but he does need to work on his shot and his passivity. Poeltl is a mobile center that can protect the rim and be a good screen and roll player, two things that the Lakers need desperately. All of these players would be good picks, and scouting seems to be one thing the Laker’s front office is good at, so I am fairly certain they will pick a nice player in this spot. I lean toward Jaylen Brown due to his potential as a two-way player and wing defenders that can also score are worth a premium in today’s NBA.

Not only will keeping this pick give the Lakers another young piece to develop, but it gives them a player who will potentially be far underpaid in the new cap structure, which will allow them to pursue higher value free agents in the future. May the Ping-Pong balls be ever in our favor.

Free Agency

Free Agency will be interesting for the entire league this offseason. With the cap rising to new highs, contracts that would have been outrageous in years past will be the norm, and the teams that can adjust to this new system and still find bargains will have an advantage. Finding free agent bargains is not what the Lakers are all about normally. The Lakers are one of the few teams that typically pursue every major free agent, and then worrying about other pieces later. Last season, when the Lakers spent so much time courting LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Monroe, that by the time they found out that neither player was coming to LA, they were left with mostly non impact players. The front office rebounded fairly well by trading for Hibbert and signing Bass/Williams, but that wasn’t what the plan was. This season, the Lakers should approach free agency with the mindset of getting NBA level talent on the team, not necessarily All-Start talent.

If the Lakers strike out on major free agents this season, they are in danger of becoming the 76ers only with slightly more talent. They will have no real professional voices on the team that can teach them how to be professional basketball players. Also, having the main young guys playing with players that may not be in the league in a few years doesn’t help their development into high-level players. If Kevin Durant wants a meeting, you give him the meeting, but the Lakers shouldn’t be held hostage by their yearning for an All-Star level player. Below is a list of players that I think the Lakers should pursue (not including obvious players such as KD). The players span from All-Star to solid bench guy, but I think all of these players have the type of game that would fit with my vision of the Lakers going forward and have the character that you would want around a team full of young players.

Obviously the Lakers won’t come out with many of those players, especially if they get one or two of the higher priced guys (remember they also have to sign Jordan Clarkson this offseason). I firmly believe that the above list would fit well with the current players on the roster and could help bring some professionalism to the team. Most, if not all of these players bring the three things I believe the Lakers need to progress, a defensive presence in the paint, three point shooting, wing defending. Surrounding D’Angelo Russell with shooters or a big man who can catch and finish in the lane will unlock his passing ability even more. With the current team, he can only show flashes of his passing due to the lack of space and lack of a big-man that can roll to the rim.

One player who the Lakers may pursue is definitely not on my list of players I would want them to sign. Hassan Whiteside will be an unrestricted free agent and enjoys being in the spotlight. He is also a good rim protector and a competent offensive player at the center position. In a vacuum, he seems like an excellent choice for the Lakers, however, his attitude has always been a problem and his volatile personality may become even more on display once he gets his first large contract. The Lakers do need to take risks on players, but I think the downside of the contract and personality is enough to sway me against the Lakers trying to sign Whiteside (who will almost definitely demand the max).

The Lakers need a lot to be good again; a new coach, a new system, more talent, and more professionalism. Even if they navigate this off-season perfectly, they still are far from contending. I want to implore all Lakers fans not to be angry if no major free agents come to the Lakers and they keep eschew the possibility of trading their young players for veterans. Laker’s fans should be happy with this approach; it means that the organization has finally realized that quick fixes are conducive to long-term failure.