And then there were eight. Or seven if you write off St George, which you’d have to suggest you do. You could even call it six if you don’t fancy the Warriors. Or even five if you don’t rate Penrith despite their last round win over premiers Melbourne Storm. So then there were five? Well, it’s probably six. Or seven. Even eight.

At the precipice of the post-season and four weeks out from Sunday 30 September, no-one has any idea who’s going to win. Each of the final eight standing is rumbling in at various levels of efficacy and picking a winner is nigh-on impossible.

Granted, it is always thus, but in recent years – let’s say since 1998 when the NRL was born – we’ve had a fair idea who’s hot and who’s not. There’s often a standout team or two and a distinct top four. And there’s a claque of clutching, grasping pretenders making up numbers. This year, no premier would surprise outside the staggering Saints or, at a pinch, the Warriors.

Never in the 111-year history of the (Sydney/NSW/national) premiership have four teams finished on top with the same points. Never in the NRL have so few points (34) finished equal first. Never before has the next four finished just a game behind (on 32 points). The Warriors ran eighth, just one win behind minor premiers the Roosters.

Last season, the Storm were minor premiers with 44 points and Cronulla were fifth on 34 points. This year Cronulla’s 34 points ran them equal-first with Storm, Rabbitohs and Roosters. The Warriors in eighth were six points ahead of the Tigers, the largest gap between eighth and ninth in 20 years of NRL.

What can it all possibly mean? For a start: don’t gamble on the NRL. Since 2000 there have been 16 clubs and 12 different premiers. It’s the closest competition in the world.

If you need convincing, a mathematician from University of Technology Sydney, Stephen Woodcock, has explained how the NRL is an outlier, a global anomaly compared with sports leagues around the world. Woodcock’s mathematics deduced that the odds of a repeat premier in the AFL, for instance – or in La Liga, Serie A, the Indian Premier League, the Davis Cup, the NBA and several others – are significantly thinner.

Brisbane’s Darius Boyd and Gareth Widdop of the Dragons pose with the Provan-Summons Trophy. Photograph: Matt King/Getty Images

Brisbane are humming into the finals after wins over Souths (38-18), the Roosters (22-8) and borderline ineffective Manly Sea Eagles (48-16). They’ll play their first match of the finals against the bashed-up Dragons in a nigh-on sold-out Suncorp Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The Broncos are hot at precisely the right time of the year.

The Panthers, meanwhile, suffered a late season slump, which is traditionally a poor time to suffer a slump. Yet in a season such as this, historical trends are for nought. Last Sunday afternoon Penrith welcomed James Maloney back from a break and beat Storm in Melbourne with two men in the sin bin.

The computer says the Warriors can’t win it, but the heart says otherwise. And they certainly have the spine to shake things up with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Shaun Johnson and the in-form Isaac Luke among the best of their kind. On the right wing they have NRL’s leading try-scorer, David Fusitu’a, who can finish in the air and inside the paint if he gets enough quality ball.

Melbourne have a couple of decent players among their spine in Cameron Smith and Billy Slater, the latter playing out the last few games of his incredible time. Cameron Munster is a superstar-in-waiting playing behind a pack full of well-drilled bruisers who “own the ground”; footy parlance for wrestling like it’s the try-outs for the Judo World Cup.

Souths have been a force all year on the back of the thundering, unbreakable Burgess brothers, born-again John Sutton and outside backs with quick, fancy feet. And there’s the great Greg Inglis, still just 31 years old, who looks old and angry, and hungry to wrap his mighty arms around the bronzed frozen-in-carbonite forms of Norm Provan and Arthur Summons again.

You could make a fine case also for the Roosters based on their superstars – James Tedesco, Cooper Cronk, Boyd Cordner, Luke Keary, Blake Ferguson and Latrell Mitchell – and the fact they’re minor premiers for the fourth time in six years. You’ll have to beat the Roosters to get to frozen Provan, but really it’s anyone’s to win.