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Theresa May faced Conservative dismay over Brexit today as a poll showed more than half of the party’s supporters do not expect Britain to get a good deal.

Nearly two thirds of adults say that the Government will mainly be to blame if the UK gets a bad deal on leaving the European Union, according to the YouGov survey. It also showed that 48 per cent of Tory backers hold this view, compared with 43 per cent who disagree.

More than half of people who voted Tory in last year’s election (58 per cent) think it is unlikely that Britain will get a good deal, with just 23 per cent believing the country will manage to negotiate a beneficial exit.

And more than eight in 10 Conservative supporters (84 per cent) believe the Brexit process has been a mess, with just 10 per cent holding the opposite view.

Two thirds of them believe it is likely that many of the promises made by Leave-backing politicians will be broken, according to the poll for the People’s Vote campaign which wants the public to have a final say on the Brexit deal that the Government is hoping to strike before the UK quits the EU in March next year.

A majority of Leave voters (57 per cent) now say the Government will largely be to blame for a bad deal; nearly three quarters of Remain backers hold this opinion.

The findings come ahead of the annual Tory conference in Birmingham at the end of September. The Prime Minister is facing the threat of a revolt if she presses ahead with her Chequers Brexit blueprint.

The poll was also published the day after Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab unveiled 25 papers on how Britain would seek to cope if it crashes out of the EU.

David Lidington, the de facto Deputy Prime Minister, admitted that a no-deal scenario was not “desirable” and that it would mean more red tape for businesses in the UK and the EU for cross-border trade.

He also defended Chancellor Philip Hammond who is under fire from Tory Right-wingers after repeating warnings that Britain’s economy could suffer a 10 per cent blow over 15 years if there is no deal, and that borrowing risks being about £80 billion higher a year.

Why the Remainers would win if there is another referendum Commentary: Peter Kellner Britain would vote to remain in the EU by 53 to 47 per cent if a referendum were held now. In a conventional poll of around 1,000 voters, a six-point gap could be the result of a sampling error. But in YouGov’s survey of more than 10,000 people, the risk of sampling fluctuations is far smaller. Moreover, YouGov polled people who reported their vote at the time of the referendum. This latest survey is able to compare how these same people, who backed Brexit by 52 to 48 per cent then, would vote today. The five-point increase in Remain support, from 48 per cent to 53 per cent today, is real. The shift towards Remain has been driven by a deep disenchantment with the Government’s performance in the Brussels talks. Ominously for Theresa May and Dominic Raab, more people who voted Conservative in last year’s election (48 per cent) agree rather than disagree (43 per cent) the Government would be to blame for a bad deal. If the referendum tapped into a widespread public unease with Britain’s political establishment, the current negotiations have done nothing to dispel that. Only 24 per cent of the public trust the Government to take the right decisions on Brexit, while 63 per cent don’t. Once again, the poll contains grim news for the Prime Minister: fewer than half who voted Tory last year trust the Government while an almost identical number distrust it. Nor has Parliament’s reputation improved, with 26 per cent of the public trusting it and 61 per cent distrusting it on Brexit. These findings suggest that a crisis at Westminster this autumn would not just be about the UK’s future relationship with the EU. It would also be about something far deeper: the ability of our politicians to lead our country effectively when the stakes are high and the consequences of failure catastrophic. Peter Kellner is the former president of YouGov

Downing Street stressed that these forecasts were “preliminary and very much a work in progress”.

Mr Lidington added that if the timetable for an agreement on a trade deal slipped from the EU summit in October into November that would be “manageable”.

The People’s Vote poll showed Tory supporters are evenly split over whether they trust the Government to make the right decisions on Brexit, with 46 per cent saying they don’t and 45 per cent saying they do. The general public is even more sceptical, with distrust running at 63 per cent and trust at 24 per cent. Parliament scores almost identical results, 61 per cent to 26.

If there was a referendum today, 46 per cent of adults would vote to Remain in the EU, with 41 per cent backing Leave. Six per cent would not vote, and the same proportion “don’t know”.

Among people who voted Leave in the 2016 referendum, 84 per cent would do so again, with eight per cent switching to Remain, and six per cent saying they “don’t know”.

Among the 2016 Remainers, 89 per cent would stick with their vote, six per cent now back quitting the EU, and three per cent “don’t know”.

With Tory Right-wingers threatening to torpedo Mrs May’s Chequers Brexit plans, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said he believed Parliament would only approve a Brexit deal that was consistent with the “letter and spirit” of the referendum result.

Labour MP Chuka Umunna, who backs another public vote on Brexit, accused Leavers of trying to blame the “whole botched process” on Brussels, adding: “It won’t work because people know the problem is down to the way they have handled Brexit itself.”

The Chequers proposals would keep close ties between the UK and the EU on trade in goods and give Britain more freedom over services.