The next premier of Ontario will almost certainly face a spring election.

With Liberal delegates choosing a successor to Premier Dalton McGuinty on the weekend of Jan. 25-27, the clock is already ticking toward the anticipated defeat of the minority Grit administration.

It’s expected the incoming premier will reconvene the prorogued legislature on Feb. 19 — the Tuesday after Family Day — with a throne speech outlining the new government’s agenda.

While the throne speech is a confidence motion, neither the Progressive Conservatives nor the New Democrats want to be seen as clamouring for an election even though a vote that could topple the government would happen after four or five days of debate.

Insiders say it is more likely the opposition parties would gang up on the Liberals after the introduction of the budget expected around March 28.

That would trigger a countdown toward the minority government falling in a confidence vote some time in April, with a provincial election possibly coming May 23.

McGuinty’s surprise resignation last Monday after nine years in power has officials from all three parties poring over legislative calendars to try to calculate when — not if — the election will come.

In the mean time, jockeying to lead the Liberals is well under way with sources saying Municipal Affairs Minister Kathleen Wynne has retained a campaign manager and will announce her candidacy soon.

Health Minister Deb Matthews, another leadership hopeful, said Monday she’s still “talking to friends and family” about her plans.

McGuinty said ministers would have to quit cabinet and a slew of them are actively considering doing so.

They include: Energy Minister Chris Bentley; Education Minister Laurel Broten; Economic Development Minister Brad Duguid; Finance Minister Dwight Duncan; Children and Youth Services Minister Eric Hoskins; Training Colleges and Universities Minister Glen Murray; and Citizenship and Immigration Minister Charles Sousa.

Outside government, former ministers Gerard Kennedy, George Smitherman, and Sandra Pupatello are ruminating about political comebacks. Candidates have until Nov. 23 to join the race and sell party memberships.

Read more about: