This article was published 28/12/2018 (637 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

A strong majority of Manitobans think marijuana legalization hasn't been the cannapocalypse after all — far from it.

In fact, more than seven in 10 believe the process of reforming Canada's weed laws has gone "fairly well" or "very well" since legalization on Oct. 17, according to a Probe Research poll of 1,105 Manitoba adults for the Winnipeg Free Press.

More than 70 per cent of Manitobans believe the process of reforming Canada's weed laws has gone "fairly well" or "very well" since legalization on Oct. 17, according to a Probe Research poll. (AP Photo/Sean Murphy)

"My impression has been that Manitobans have come quite far, really, on this issue of legalization in the last 18 months, two years," said Probe senior researcher Mary Agnes Welch.

"But even I am a bit surprised by how many people feel like this was kind of no big deal."

Less than 18 months ago, Manitobans had plenty of pre-legalization concerns. An August 2017 Probe online survey for CTV News found Manitobans were generally "uncomfortable with key aspects of the looming legalization of marijuana," expressing concern over everything from the legal age to use the drug to the idea that their kids could choose it over alcohol.

The new poll numbers suggest approval of legalization in Manitoba goes well beyond people who regularly use cannabis. Even though nearly 71 per cent of Manitobans now take a favourable view of legalization, a similar proportion — 73 per cent — don't plan to purchase pot.

Twenty-seven per cent said they plan to purchase cannabis, or already have, in response to the survey conducted in late November and early December.

"Clearly, the crowds in the stores demonstrate that there is a market out there, and I think this data also shows that," Welch said.

"Maybe it's a little higher in these numbers than the past, but we're also seeing, I think, more people being willing to acknowledge that they have used cannabis or that they plan to.

"So maybe we'll see that number go up a bit as the stigma declines."

"Clearly, the crowds in the stores demonstrate that there is a market out there, and I think this data also shows that." –Mary Agnes Welch, Probe Research

Twelve per cent of Manitobans polled were willing to say they bought cannabis since legalization. A closer look at those purchasers suggests good news for both the federal and provincial governments, both of which want to use legalization to stamp out the black market for the drug: cannabis users in Manitoba appear to be choosing the new, legal market over the illicit alternative.

Eleven per cent of all Manitobans reported buying marijuana from a licensed retailer, more than double the five per cent who bought from an unlicensed source.

Some respondents said they got marijuana from both legal and illicit sources, so those two figures overlap.

It's encouraging that Manitobans appear to prefer the legal market, said Delta 9 Cannabis CEO John Arbuthnot, especially in light of an inconsistent supply at stores in the province.

"I think it speaks, as well, to what we've been assuming all along, and that is that Canadians, overall, want to be legal," said Arbuthnot, whose company both produces government-regulated marijuana in an east Winnipeg facility and sells it at a provincially licensed store in St. Vital.

RUTH BONNEVILLE / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS FILES Delta 9 Cannabis store's first customer in line, Steven Stairs, reacts to his first purchase Oct. 17.

"They want to go through legal channels, they want to go to a store and find product that's tested and safe and approved."

Arbuthnot said Delta 9's Winnipeg store hosts as many as 700 shoppers on an average day, with closer to 1,200 transactions on a busy day.

Only about 10 per cent of Delta 9's cannabis sales occur online, a proportion he thinks will increase over time.

"Since prohibition is over and legalization is here, we've always anticipated that there would be a lot of popularity for this product, which there certainly is," said Matt Ryan, vice-president of marketing for National Access Cannabis, which holds seven of Manitoba's 16 legal cannabis store licences under the name Meta Cannabis Supply Co., and operates 14 NewLeaf Cannabis stores in Alberta.

Ryan said his company's stores are seeing "trends very similar to alcohol, where Thursdays, Fridays and Saturdays are hot days for cannabis."

Of course, not everyone in Manitoba is thrilled with the rollout.

Twenty-nine per cent of respondents felt legalization had gone "not very well" or "not well at all." Those people were more likely to live outside of Winnipeg, more likely to be older and male and more likely to support Brian Pallister's Progressive Conservative government.

"I think political ideology really underpins that group of people who say it's not gone well," Welch said.

Political Take on Pot Click to Expand 39 per cent of Tory supporters were concerned about the Oct. 17 marijuana rollout 21 per cent of NDP supports were concerned about the rollout 14 per cent of Liberal supporters said they were concerned

The poll's findings bear out her analysis, since survey participants were asked to rank possible reasons to explain their take on legalization.

For example, among the 29 per cent of Manitobans who felt legalization has gone poorly, 40 per cent said their top reason was simply that legalization was a bad idea. An additional 16 per cent ranked that as their second or third reason.

Other Manitobans were most disappointed in legalization for reasons related to public health and safety. Fifty-six per cent of respondents who said legalization hasn't gone well cited concerns about impaired driving as one of their top three reasons, which was highest among women and older Manitobans.

"I think there is still a significant worry — and I bet it's even a worry among people who generally support legalization — there is this lingering worry about impaired driving," said Welch.

"It's a legitimate worry."

That hasn't been borne out on the road, RCMP say.

"Since legalization, Manitoba RCMP has not seen any increase in cannabis-impaired driving," Cpl. Julie Courchaine said.

"However, we have seen several charges under the Highway Traffic Act for improper storage of cannabis in a vehicle."

RUTH BONNEVILLE / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS FILES Delta 9 Cannabis store co-owner, John Arbuthnot, is all smiles as he stands outside his store on Dakota St. on opening day.

Winnipeg police aren't willing to say yet what the experience has been in the city. In November, impaired-driving countermeasures co-ordinator, Const. Stephane Fontaine, said it takes months to confirm drug-impaired driving arrests for statistical purposes.

Even some Manitobans who presumably use cannabis were of the opinion that legalization hadn't gone well. Twenty-two per cent of respondents who took a dim view of legalization cited "not enough product available" as one of their top reasons, and that response was highest among respondents aged 18 to 34. Twenty-one per cent said legal cannabis was "too expensive."

Welch cautioned that those figures represent small sample sizes, and could be less reliable.

RUTH BONNEVILLE / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS FILES Opening days have been busy, including at the Meta Cannabis store on the Long Plain First Nation in Winnipeg.

"There have been stories from across the country about supply shortages, so I don't think it's an isolated, Manitoba issue," Arbuthnot said.

"I was in store (recently) and we had about 15 different cannabis products and two oil-based products. Ultimately, we'd like to have 60 or 70 cannabis products at any given time, so obviously there's still a lot of work to do to get to a point where stores are... well-stocked, with a broad enough selection of (inventory) that you're satisfying everybody."

The Probe Research poll for the Winnipeg Free Press used random-digit dialing to reach adults across Manitoba, who answered the survey questions online from Nov. 27 to Dec. 6. The representative sample of 1,105 Manitobans included 251 randomly chosen members of the Probe Research panel. The survey results have a 2.9 per cent margin of error, 19 times out of 20.

solomon.israel@freepress.mb.ca

@sol_israel