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The latest scuttlebutt on U.S.-China trade talks suggest the Dec. 15 tariff round won’t go into effect. Looking beyond the chatter, there’s a good reason to expect a delay: for the U.S., the December tariff round would have more costs than benefits. Using granular trade data, Bloomberg Economics calculated what share of U.S. imports from different tariff tranches come from China. For the first tranche a mere 7% of the total came from China, allowing imports to be sourced from elsewhere and the disruption to the U.S. economy to be contained. For the final tranche, the share of Chinese goods is a scary 86% and fallout would be elevated.