The Padres are in the midst of an offseason of possibility, if not quite probability.

So at next week’s winter meetings, where virtually every team will be included in at least a couple rumors virally spreading around Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino, it will be something of a surprise if anything tying the Padres to a momentous move comes to fruition.

General Manager A.J. Preller dreams big and rules out nothing. He is certainly capable of surprise.

He showed that in the rock star winter of 2014-15. Three summers ago, he essentially remade a minor league system. Last spring, the Padres penned Eric Hosmer to the richest deal in team history sooner than most expected such a signing.


Despite Preller’s hints and the private assurances of others that the Padres are unlikely to pull off anything audacious this offseason, it can’t be ruled out.

They are always at least inquiring, talking about what if.

However, following two-plus months of internal talks and proposals and rankings and re-rankings of their players and others they might want, the organization remains committed to the process playing out, to its own players’ improvement indicating when the time has arrived to make the final push.

The Padres’ aggressive prudence is encapsulated in their pursuit of Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto.


Talks regarding Realmuto go back more than a year, and the Padres will be among the dozen or so other clubs conversing with the Marlins at next week’s winter meetings regarding the catcher who is widely considered baseball’s best.

Despite having Austin Hedges and Francisco Mejia in the majors and two other highly thought-of catching prospects, the Padres have never wavered in their interest in Realmuto, who they see as a potential difference maker of the highest order.

But multiple factors – not least among them the Padres’ belief they are a year away from realistically contending for the postseason – make it unlikely they will swing such a deal this offseason.

Realmuto, who will turn 28 in March, is eligible for free agency after the 2020 season. That means the Padres would be guaranteed to have him for only one season in which they expect to contend.


According to sources familiar with the team’s interest in Realmuto and the organization’s long-term plans at catcher, where they expect highly regarded Luis Campusano could be ready by ’21, essentially renting Realmuto is palatable. But a possible short-term acquisition does affect what the team is willing to give up to get him.

Another example of the Padres’ approach is their agreeing to a two-year deal with Garrett Richards last month.

While significant signings and trades have commenced around baseball, all the Padres have done is get a starting pitcher who won’t be ready to contribute until 2020.

The Padres will pay Richards $7 million to rehab from Tommy John surgery and help provide guidance for their young staff in 2019 before asking him to anchor their rotation in ‘20.


Giving Richards at least $15.5 million demonstrates commitment. It also suggests where the priority in that commitment is.

When speaking of a payroll push the Padres have promised when they are close or addressing the possibility of making a blockbuster-type trade to acquire an elite pitcher or position player, Preller often uses a certain phrase, saying the team wants to “line it up with our competitive window.”

That window has not opened.

The Padres are not going to force it ajar.


That doesn’t mean they aren’t checking it all the time.

The Padres’ expectation is the groundwork they have laid the last few months, especially that concerning possible trades, will yield at least some movement in Las Vegas, where Monday commences the first of four frenetic days.

The Padres hope to get a starting pitcher and a third baseman, or at least get a better idea what it will take to acquire one in the weeks following the meetings. They also remain in talks regarding utility infielders.

It would not be surprising to see them work a deal for Yankees pitcher Sonny Gray, though the sides are not all that close just yet. The Padres should have at least an indication by the end of the meetings where they stand on the possibility of a two-year deal with shortstop Freddy Galvis. Wil Myers, it appears, barring other teams significantly upping their offers, will start somewhere on the field for the Padres in 2019.


Here in speculation season, where it is sometimes impossible to differentiate between rumors and reality, where even the most accurate of reports are often missing context of some sort, we don’t know much.

What we do know is Preller and others in the organization talk about 2019 as a continuation with some supplementation. The focus on the upcoming season comes with an eye toward the one after it.

We also know that whatever amount of actual dealing there is, Preller is always wheeling.

“We’ve had a lot of conversations,” he said Friday. “We’re prepared with some different scenarios, where they might be headed. … We’re looking forward to really the next few weeks.”


kevin.acee@sduniontribune.com