Methodology

From an Overall Perspective...

From a JMU Perspective...

By the Numbers (105 total FCS teams)...

Clinched Conference Titles

CAA (7 Teams Alive)

Big Sky (6 Teams Alive)

Big South (4 Teams Alive)

MEAC (6 Teams Alive)

MVC (7 Teams Alive)

NEC (3 Teams Alive)

OVC (3 Teams Alive)

Patriot League (2 Teams Alive)

Pioneer League (5 Teams Alive)

SoCon (1 Team Alive)

Southland (6 Teams Alive)

Must Win Out to reach seven wins:

Conference Analysis

CAA

Big Sky

Big South

MEAC

MVC

NEC

OVC

Patriot

Pioneer

SoCon

Southland

With five straight victories, James Madison has quietly played itself into the postseason conversation for the NCAA Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) playoffs. Today, with help from a JMU contributing writer, we dig deeper into analysis of the potential field of 24 as teams jockey for position heading into the final two weeks.The FCS Playoffs consist of 24 teams with 11 conference automatic qualifiers (AQ) and 13 at-large bids. In order for a team to be considered for an at-large bid, a team typically needs seven Division I wins, an informal benchmark established by the selection committee. This analysis takes a (slightly purple-glassed) look at the national FCS landscape to determine who has claimed an AQ and who is still eligible to reach the 7-win threshold.The playoffs begin Nov. 29 with eight games at on-campus sites. Eight seeded teams receive byes and then host the winners of the Nov. 29 games on Dec. 6 as teams push to be part of the Jan. 10 FCS Championship Game in Frisco, Texas.We now have our first two playoff teams. With both the Patriot and SoCon AQs decided, this marks the first time two conferences have been clinched with two weeks to go in the five years I have been doing this analysis. The other interesting fact is that there are fewer teams this year that are still alive for an AQ but who cannot reach seven wins.JMU is one step closer to securing a playoff spot with the win over Stony Brook. It is very unlikely that the Dukes can win the CAA's AQ, but eight wins for the Dukes gives them a solid at-large resume to stack up against other potential qualifiers. That means one win in our final two games puts the Dukes in good position. Third place in the CAA is a near lock, which leads to… Next week's game in Richmond against the Spiders. This will be a tough one. True, Richmond lost this past week to a Maine team that is down a bit after last year's regular season title, but most teams have trouble when they have to travel up to Orono. If JMU is able to pull out a win in Richmond and close the year with a win at home against Elon, the Dukes would have a 9-2 record against FCS opponents with one loss against a top-10 team. That resume could even lift Madison into the discussion for a top-eight seed, though the committee might hesitate to put three CAA squads among the top eight seeds.Week-by-week teams still alive for any playoff spot: (AQ or at-large)10/26 – 8611/2 – 6911/9 – 50Week-by-week teams still alive for an at-large spot:10/26 – 6011/2 – 5311/9 – 42Teams that have reached seven wins (without clinching a conference):10/26 – 611/2 – 1011/9 – 19 (includes JMU)Here's the overall playoff eligibility list (teams still mathematically in the playoff discussion). The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach seven wins. Note that some teams might technically have the ability to reach seven total wins, but the selection committee often discounts victories against non-Division I (FBS/FCS) teams for consideration.– FordhamChattanoogaVillanova – 8 winsNew Hampshire – 8 winsRichmond – 7 winsDelaware (1)Albany (1) – cannot win AQWilliam and Mary (1) – cannot win AQEastern Washsington – 8 winsCal Poly (1)Northern Arizona (1)Montana State (1)Montana (0)Idaho State (0)Coastal Carolina – 10 winsLiberty (1)Monmouth (0) – cannot win AQCharleston Southern (0) – cannot win AQBethune-Cookman – 7 winsNorth Carolina A&T – 7 winsSouth Carolina State (1)Morgan StateNorfolk StateNorth Carolina CentralNorth Dakota State – 9 winsIllinois State – 8 winsYoungstown State – 7 winsIndiana State (1)Northern Iowa (1)South Dakota State (0)Southern Illinois (0)Bryant – 7 winsSacred Heart – 7 winsWagnerEastern Kentucky – 8 winsJacksonville State – 7 winsEastern Illinois (0)Fordham – 9 Wins – clinched AQBucknell – 7 winsSan Diego – 7 winsJacksonville – 7 winsDayton (1)CampbellDrakeChattanooga – 7 wins – clinched AQSE Louisiana – 7 winsStephen F. Austin (1)Sam Houston State (1)McNeese State (0)Central Arkansas (0)Northwestern State (0) – cannot win AQMontanaIdaho StateMonmouthCharleston SouthernSouth Dakota StateSouthern IllinoisEastern IllinoisCentral ArkansasNorthwestern StateMcNeese State– UNH easily rolled over URI to stay in sole possession of first place. UNH's final two games are not as easy: hosting Delaware and then at rival Maine. Whether or not they get the AQ, they are almost a lock for the playoffs. One more win will probably get them a seed – and no team is going to want to face UNH in Durham in December. If UNH does falter, Villanova will be looking to capitalize. UNH and Villanova do not face each other, so a two-way tie between them would go to the next tiebreaker: record against common opponents. There's no way to determine this right now. It would be an academic exercise, anyways – both teams would be playoff teams. Three teams are tied for the coveted third place spot – JMU, Richmond, and Delaware. Delaware has by far the hardest remaining schedule of those three against UNH and Villanova. Richmond has a slightly easier road (against JMU and W&M), while JMU travels to Richmond and finishes by hosting last-place Elon. W&M needs a lot of luck to have any shot at an at-large. The CAA is nearly a lock for three spots and could warrant up to five under the right conditions. It's actually possible for seven CAA teams to finish with seven or more wins.– Six teams entered the weekend with only one conference loss. Montana and Cal Poly each lost, dropping the number of first-place teams down to four (EWU, Northern Arizona, Idaho State, and Montana State). EWU is the leader of that pack right now since it stands at 6-1, while the others are at 5-1. However, that could change next week. EWU has a bye, so its record won't change, but Idaho State and Montana State will face off against each other. One of those teams will get their second loss – which will likely knock them out of the AQ race. The other will stay tied with EWU. EWU has beaten both of those teams, so the Eagles own the head-to-head tiebreaker. But who did EWU lose to? Northern Arizona – who does not play Idaho State or Montana State this year. On paper, it looks like NAU will easily at 7-1 since both of their remaining opponents have losing records. But NAU has not beaten any D1 opponent by more than seven points – even the last-place teams – and it lost to a down Northern Colorado team. They are just as likely to finish 0-2 as they are 2-0. So, NAU has the two-way tiebreaker over EWU. EWU has it over both Idaho State and Montana State. The AQ race will come down to the final week.– A much simpler conference compared to the CAA and the Big Sky. Only two teams can win the AQ: Coastal Carolina and Liberty. Both are now at 3-0 in the conference and it will all come down to two weeks from now when they face each other – the winner will get the AQ. The purpose of next week's games, then, is for teams to bolster their cases for at-large bids. Coastal would be almost guaranteed one – having already reached 10 wins. Liberty must win next week if it wants to be able to reach seven wins for a possible at-large bid. The final two teams in the conference, Monmouth and Charleston Southern, must also win out to reach the seven-win threshold. Even with those wins, Monmouth's schedule probably just isn't strong enough for an at-large. For Charleston Southern, I would say that they would actually have a decent shot....provided it wins its final game of the season… at FBS Georgia.– Three teams are tied for first with 5-1 records, while three more teams are sitting one game behind. Nothing is settled here. Importantly, two of those first-place teams made it to seven wins this past weekend: Bethune-Cookman and North Carolina A&T. The only other team that can reach seven wins is the other first-place team, South Carolina State. B-C does have a FBS win, so they could have a good at-large argument if they can get one or two more wins. NC A&T has no real quality wins, so it would be hard to justify them. For SC State, their out-of-conference schedule may not stack up for at-large consideration, but they do have the AQ advantage of beating both B-C and NC A&T head-to-head. For the other three teams (Morgan State, Norfolk State, and NC Central), they must win the AQ. That outcome is very unlikely.– And down goes NDSU! Northern Iowa's takedown of first-place teams over the last two weeks has made the AQ situation much more cloudy. NDSU and Illinois State are now tied atop the MVC with two other teams (including Northern Iowa) one game back. There are too many scenarios involving a lot of strong teams here to go too in-depth right now, but expect the MVC to get numerous playoff bids, though a conference that was once considered for as many as five bids could become a victim of teams beating each other up when it comes to maximizing the potential bids.– There were no upsets this past weekend in the NEC, so all eyes will turn to this coming weekend's game between Bryant and Sacred Heart. If Sacred Heart wins, they clinch the AQ. If Bryant wins, they will clinch the AQ if Wagner also loses. If Bryant and Wagner both win next week, then the AQ will be decided when those two teams meet in the final week. Wagner cannot reach seven wins, so they cannot get an at-large. Between Bryant and Sacred Heart, Bryant looks much more impressive, so they would be more likely to be granted an at-large.– Three teams are left alive: EKU, Jacksonville State and Eastern Illinois. Jacksonville State beat EKU this past weekend, so things are starting to get clearer here. If Jacksonville State beats Eastern Illinois next weekend, Jacksonville State will clinch the AQ. Eastern Illinois would then be eliminated completely since they would not be able to get to seven wins. If Eastern Illinois wins, they would become the favorites to get the AQ. EKU and Jacksonville State are both likely to receive playoff spots while Eastern Illinois must win out.– We have our first official playoff team! With Fordham's win over Bucknell on Friday night, Fordham clinched the Patriot League AQ. Fordham had to do it without their #1 quarterback (a guy who had a 566-yard game a month ago) due to appendicitis. Fortunately for them, Bucknell was without their #1 QB as well. This is great for us. Fordham has been racking up wins with large margins this season. (though against Villanova, they lost by 44 points.) Fordham almost certainly would have claimed an at-large if they lost the AQ. Now all attention will turn to Bucknell. Bucknell has reached seven wins, but their wins haven't been nearly as impressive. If they win out, they'll be at 9-2...which could get them an at-large. But a loss in one of the final two games, their chances will drop significantly. All other teams in the Patriot (including usual playoff stalwarts Lehigh and Lafayette) have been completely eliminated.– Jacksonville and San Diego are tied atop the conference with 6-1 records, while three teams are watching with two losses. Jacksonville beat San Diego early in the season, so they have the tiebreaker if both teams win their final conference games next week. That means Jacksonville clinches the AQ with a win. San Diego would get the AQ with a win and a Jacksonville loss. Both of these teams have reached seven wins – and could possibly make it to eight – but the strength of the league makes it unlikely to produce an at-large team. The other three teams in play (Drake, Dayton, and Campbell) have to root for Jacksonville and San Diego to both lose. That could allow the season to end with as many as four teams tied for first...which would force us to look at multiple tiebreakers. That would be fun.– The simplest conference of all. Chattanooga beat Western Carolina this past weekend to clinch the AQ. This also eliminated all other SoCon teams from the playoffs. (WCU filled their OOC schedule with two FBS and two non-D1 teams) Chattanooga is now playing for a seed. They have had a decent schedule so far, so one or two more wins could get them a home game.– We still have a lot of teams in contention here. SE Louisiana and Sam Houston State are both in first place with 5-1 conference records. Unfortunately, those teams don't play each other this year. (Isn't it amazing how often this happens?) Right now, there is no way to tell who would get the AQ then, since it would depend on where every other team finishes within the conference. Of course, if both of those teams lose a game, there are three other teams looking to jump back in the race. This will likely come down to the final week. The other major question is: "How many teams will reach seven wins?" Right now, only SE Louisiana has made it...and they just got there. Five other teams are possible, but have no wiggle room. This is helping a team like JMU, since this means no bubble teams from the Southland can finish with more than eight wins.