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ALEX Salmond is facing an uphill battle to win the referendum – despite support for independence rising to the highest level this year.

A major new poll shows 39 per cent of Scots are planning to vote Yes on September 18 compared with 48 per cent who will vote No.

That means the Nationalists must convince almost all voters that remain undecided – 13 per cent – to back their vision for a separate country over the next six months.

If the don’t knows were excluded from today’s poll, it would give a referendum result of 55 per cent No and 45 per cent Yes.

The survey of more than 1000 Scots also showed that men are leaning towards independence – Yes 46 per cent, No 44 per cent – but women remain strongly opposed to Salmond’s plans – Yes 33 per cent, No 51 per cent.

And worryingly for Scottish Labour, almost a quarter – 24.1 per cent – of those who voted for them in the disastrous 2011 Holyrood election are planning to go against the party in the referendum and vote Yes.

In comparison only 16 per cent of SNP voters are planning to vote No.

The results come in a major new survey carried out by respected pollsters Survation for the Daily Record and our partners at Dundee University’s Five Million Questions project.

The Daily Record will be running a similar poll every month to track Scottish public opinion in the run-up to the referendum.

A similar poll for Survation last month found support for Yes was 38 per cent and No 47 per cent – meaning both side have gone up by one per cent.

At 39 per cent, no poll has found higher support for independence since last summer.

Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive of Survation, said the relative lack of movement may indicate a hardening of views, leaving the Yes campaign with a struggle to shift numbers in their favour.

The results come after a dramatic few weeks in the referendum debate during which Chancellor George Osborne has ruled out an independent Scotland sharing the pound with the rest of the UK and a number of prominent businesses have warned of the dangers of a Yes vote.

Yes Scotland chief executive Blair Jenkins last night described the findings as “excellent” for the pro-independence camp.

He said: “What this poll clearly indicates is that ‘Project Fear’ is failing and that increasing numbers of people are realising that Yes promises a better future for themselves, their families and for Scotland.

“With six months still to go to the referendum, this poll shows support for Yes has risen to the highest level this year despite the scaremongering over the pound and business.

“The fact is the No campaign have played what they believe are their ace cards and have utterly failed to trump Yes.”

Jenkins also said it was “extremely significant and encouraging” that a quarter of Labour voters in 2011 are already backing Yes.

He suggested Tory welfare cuts and the Yes campaigns message that an independent Scotland would be fairer is beginning to change some people’s minds.

He added: “People are carefully weighing up the consequences and costs of a No vote – not least the costs to Scotland’s economy, as well as Westminster’s attacks on hard-working families and vulnerable people – and, as a result, support for Yes increases.

“Only a Yes vote can deliver real opportunity for Scotland.”

But Better Together campaign director Blair McDougall said the poll showed Scots don’t want

independence.

He said: “Most people in Scotland remain unconvinced by Alex Salmond’s obsession with independence.

“The interventions from some of Scotland’s largest employers, such as Standard Life, and even the SNP’s own figures yesterday, show that leaving the UK would be a big risk that we simply don’t need to take.”

ANALYSIS: SMALL GAP BUT STILL A MOUNTAIN TO CLIMB

Michael Marra, Director of Five Million Questions, University of Dundee

THESE polling figures are close enough to maintain interest in the debate with six months to go.

But the hill for the Yes campaign to climb remains considerable.

Everyone who is currently undecided has to make the leap to independence.

Evidence from referendums around the world tells us people become less likely to vote for change the closer they get to polling day.

Winning from here for Alex Salmond would be an astonishing achievement.

Little wonder then that both campaigns are looking for “a moment”.

Setting the referendum aside, as the public are proving remarkably adept at doing, fortunes for the SNP remain buoyant.

Three years on from their victory of 2011, they are still riding high in Holyrood voting intentions.

So while SNP members will be downbeat with independence looking set to be rejected, SNP ministers will be slightly happier in private as they look set to keep their jobs.

Scottish Labour’s conference in Perth in a couple of weeks’ time will be dominated by talk of further devolution.

This is part of the strategy to win in September.

But is the relentless focus on the constitution hindering rather than helping their chances of resting back power in 2016?

If Yes Scotland need a game-changer then Scottish Labour need a sea-change.

And it’s becoming increasingly clear that winning big in the referendum is not it.

'NO' FOR INDEPENDENCE BUT SNP STILL MOST POPULAR

THE SNP look set to lose the independence referendum but sail to victory again at Holyrood.

Our exclusive poll found the Nationalists are still the most popular party to hold power at the Scottish Parliament by some way.

The results show 45 per cent of Scots would vote for them on the constituency vote while 40 per cent would give them their support on the regional list.

By comparison, closest rivals Labour are on 34 per cent on the constituency vote and 28 per cent on the list.

That could see a repeat of the results in May 2011 when the SNP won 69 seats and formed a majority government after four years in a minority administration.

Labour were heavily defeated then, moving from 46 seats to 37 in the 129-seat Parliament.

Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon last night said the continued support for the SNP was “remarkable”.

But a Scottish Labour spokesman said: “Since the last Holyrood election, Scottish Labour has enjoyed success in parliamentary by- elections, council elections and has a remarkable record in council by-elections.

“We will continue to fight for every vote as we look forward to the UK general election in 2015 and the Holyrood election in 2016.”