Utah vs Oregon

Betting Line: Oregon +6.5

Over/Under: 46

Utah capped off their regular season with a 45-15 win over rival Colorado in the Rumble in the Rockies game. The Utes came up big when defending the run. Colorado had just 60 total rushing yards on less than two yards per rushing attempt and Utah had five sacks and seven tackles for loss. Utah also did well in preventing big plays as Colorado did not have a run longer than 13 yards and had just two plays in total of more than 20 yards. Against Oregon, it will be important for Utah to win the battle in the trenches or at least keep it close. Oregon boasts one of the best offensive lines in the country but Utah has some talent on their defensive front that should be able to hold up. Defensive end Bradlee Anae leads the team with 12.5 sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss and fellow defensive end Mika Tafua had 2.5 tackles for loss last week against Colorado. I think that Anae and Tafua should provide a lot of help on the outside, but the interior defensive line will need to step up. Leki Fotu and John Penisini are both solid players but this will be their toughest test yet. If Utah can at least hold strong at the line, it will create some discomfort that Oregon has not truly had to face when establishing the run. On offense, the Utes will likely look to establish the run game early. Zack Moss has run for 1,246 yards and 15 touchdowns on 6.2 yards per carry. Moss is a very good workhorse back for the Utes and the team is 7-0 when he hits 100 rushing yards and only two of those game were decided by less than 28 points. Quarterback Tyler Huntley will need to be a bit more careful throwing into Oregon’s defense as the Ducks average 1.4 interceptions per game. The Utes lack a true star receiver and their leader in receiving yards is actually tight end Brant Kuithe. Someone will need to step up in a pass catching role and be able to create some separation against Oregon’s secondary.

Oregon won last week, but it was not a win that leads to a ton of confidence as they beat a 5-7 Oregon State team that was starting a backup quarterback just 24-10 at home. This less inspiring win coupled with their loss to Arizona State the week before that has me worried that the Ducks are limping to the finish line. One thing that Oregon struggled with during this game was staying ahead of the chains. The Ducks converted just 3/14 third down attempts, and thus could not keep their drives going. While they did convert 3/3 fourth down attempts, they probably should have converted more third down attempts before that. One thing Oregon needs to do to stay ahead of the chains is to be able to run the ball effectively. Oregon ran the ball fairly well against Oregon State as they had 191 rushing yards as a team on 5.2 yards per attempt. What things will really come down to against Utah will be how Oregon’s offensive line matches up with Utah’s defensive line. The Ducks are loaded with talent in the trenches and that talent needs to show both in run and pass blocking. Center Jake Hanson is listed as questionable for the game due to an undisclosed injury. Even if Hanson does play, he will likely not be at full health, meaning guards Dallas Warmack and Shane Lemieux need to pick up some of the slack. The Ducks also need to watch out for Utah’s star defensive end Bradlee Anae. Anae averages just over one sack every game and giving quarterback Justin Herbert more time to throw will be essential to victory. Herbert will need to be more accurate with the ball than he has been the last couple weeks. Oregon needs to be multifaceted on offense. Receiver Johnny Johnson has taken a big step up this season and he will be called upon often during this game. If he can manage to get some space deep downfield, Oregon should be able to make Utah pay. On defense, I think the Ducks need to try and stop the run. Utah running back Zack Moss is a very underrated player and can tear Oregon’s defense to shreds if they are not careful. Defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux is nursing a hand injury and having him play will be very beneficial as he leads the team with 11.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks. If Thibodeaux does not play, Bryson Young and La’Mar Winston will need to step it up. Against the pass, Oregon has two players with four interceptions in safety Jevon Holland and cornerback Verone McKinley. If they or anyone else, can create turnovers, it will be huge for momentum and the game as a whole.

Prediction:

Oregon keeps it close but Utah ultimately guts out a 28-23 win.

Baylor vs Oklahoma

Betting Line: Oklahoma -9

Over/Under: 64.5

Baylor had a nice win last week as they boat raced Kansas 61-6. Baylor did quite well defending pass as they had four interceptions in their win. Against Oklahoma, things will be a bit tougher. The Bears did alright in pass coverage against Oklahoma three weeks ago, but CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma’s top receiver, did not play. Cornerbacks Jameson Houston and Raleigh Texada need to be ready for a tougher matchup this time around and hold their own in coverage. I think they should try and press at the line and force Oklahoma to throw it deep, which does not suit the strengths of Jalen Hurts well. Against the run, Baylor needs to make sure Jalen Hurts is not able to scramble easily. It is likely Baylor will use a quarterback spy and they definitely need to, especially on obvious passing downs. On offense, the Bears need to establish the run game. In their previous loss against Oklahoma, Baylor barely gave any carries to their running backs and it out a ton of pressure on quarterback Charlie Brewer. If John Lovett or JaMycal Hasty can get going on the ground, it will help things run more smoothly offensively. I think the Bears also have a matchup advantage with receiver Denzel Mims against Oklahoma’s cornerbacks. Mims is not too tall as he stands 6’3”, but he is very good at making contested catches and I think he should be able to make plays over Oklahoma’s shorter cornerbacks. If Brewer can be accurate in his passes to Mims, I think they could really exploit Oklahoma with this.

Oklahoma came out with their fifth straight win over Oklahoma State in the Bedlam game last week as they won 34-16. It looks like head coach Lincoln Riley has finally taken my advise and has started to run the ball with Kennedy Brooks more and it is paying off. With his increase in carries, Brooks has run for 533 yards over the last four games on 6.6 yards per carry. I think by making this change, it is making their offense more balanced and is letting Jalen Hurts succeed with a lighter workload. Against Baylor, I expect the Sooners to run the ball with Hurts and Brooks as has been the trend recently. I think that while they have had success through the air, it is good to let Hurts run with the ball more as he is a dynamic dual threat and the increased focus on the run should allow the passing attack to more easily take shape when they turn to it. Another wrinkle to add to this game that was not in their first matchup with Baylor is that receiver CeeDee Lamb will play. Lamb will be a first round pick this spring and is very good at winning one on one battles with cornerbacks. On defense, I think they need to make Baylor try and beat them with the run game. Baylor’s leading rusher averages just more than 50 rushing yards per game, and I think they are much more comfortable airing it out. This does mean that their cornerbacks will have to hold their own against Baylor’s Denzel Mims, who has a height and strength advantage over their cornerbacks. Parnell Motley has done well in coverage as of late, but this will be a tough task for him. If Motley or Tre Brown can hold down coverage well, I think Baylor’s offense will have a hard time moving the ball consistently.

Prediction:

Baylor hangs around but Oklahoma keeps control of the game and wins 35-24.

Georgia vs LSU

Betting Line: LSU -7

Over/Under: 55.5

Georgia wrapped your their regular season with a 52-7 win over rival Georgia Tech in Clean, Old Fashioned Hate. Georgia was completely dominant on defense, allowing just 139 yards on 2.3 yards per play. While their steak of not allowing a rushing touchdown all season was snapped, the Bulldogs have a very strong defense especially up front. If the Bulldogs want to continue to be as effective against the run, they need to get some penetration into the backfield. LSU’s offensive line does a very good job in run blocking and pass protection so this will be no easy task. Putting any kind of pressure on LSU’s Joe Burrow has been rare for LSU’s opponents but I think Georgia is more than capable of pulling it off. Against the run, their linebackers need to do well in pursuit. Cornerbacks Eric Stokes and DJ Daniel will be key players on the defense as they will have the not so easy task of covering LSU’s Ja’Marr Chaae and Justin Jefferson. While I am not expecting a full shutdown, if they can at least force Burrow to throw into tight windows, they will find success. On offense, the Bulldogs need to find a new receiving threat. Lawrence Cager looked to have established himself as the top guy but he is out for the rest of the season with an ankle injury. George Pickens is Georgia’s most consistent deep threat and a solid target this season, but he is suspended for the first half of this game for fighting against Georgia Tech. This leaves Dominick Blaylock and Demetris Robertson as the top two targets to start the game. One of them will need to create separation and be able to get open while playing the role of primary receiver at least until Pickens can play. Running back D’Andre Swift will play, but he is nursing a shoulder injury. This puts more pressure on the offensive line to create a clear path for him. Thankfully for Swift and Georgia, the Bulldogs have what is likely the country’s best offensive line unit. Quarterback Jake Fromm will have some pressure on him this game that he has not been used to having this season. He has done well in big moments before as he played very well against Alabama last season, but he has regressed a bit this season and I think new offensive coordinator James Coley (who is not very good at his job) does not fully trust him. He is going to have to make some plays if Georgia wants to really be successful on offense.

LSU capped off their undefeated regular season last week with a dominant 50-7 win over Texas A&M. Joe Burrow has yet another strong showing to pad his Heisman candidacy as he threw for 352 yards and three touchdowns. Burrow has torn apart just about every defense he has faced, but Georgia will be a tough test. If he can continue to be accurate with the ball and make the proper reads, I think he should be fine. Burrow has the benefit of playing with an elite receiving corps led by Biletnkoff Award finalist Ja’Marr Chase. Chase is an elite deep threat as he has 1,457 receiving yards this season. Justin Jefferson adds support as more of a possession receiver with 1,092 receiving yards of his own. If Chase and Jefferson can keep up their recent form, I think Georgia will really have their hands full defending the pass. Where things will be a bit tougher is in the run game. Georgia has allowed just one rushing touchdown all season and just 71 rushing yards per game. The offensive line will need to do well in run blocking and running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire will need to do well at fighting through contact. On defense, I think LSU needs to focus a lot of their energy into slowing down D’Andre Swift and Georgia’s run game. Swift is one of the top running backs in the country and is a very physical runner. He also has the best offensive line in college football blocking for him. I think the Tigers need to blitz outside linebackers Damone Clark and K’Lavon Chaisson often to both stop the run game and to just throw new looks at Georgia’s elite offensive tackles. Right tackle Isaiah Wilson definitely has the NFL in his future and left tackle Andrew Thomas will likely be a top five draft pick this spring. If they can be neutralized or at least brought down from their elite level a bit, it will be huge for LSU’s defense. Against the pass, I think LSU needs to force Georgia to beat them deep. Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm does not have the strongest arm and I think that Georgia does not like taking downfield shots through the air. The Bulldogs have some athletes at receiver, but I think if they have safety Grant Delpit shadowed over the top in coverage, they should be fine.

Prediction:

LSU overpowers Georgia’s through the air and will bring home a 34-20 as Joe Burrow puts a bow on his Heisman candidacy.

Virginia vs Clemson

Betting Line: Clemson -28.5

Over/Under: 57

Virginia had a historic win last week as they beat rival Virginia Tech for the first time since 2003 and secured their first ACC Coastal title. The Cavaliers were led by a huge performance from quarterback Bryce Perkins who threw for 311 yards and ran for another 164 in a 39-30 win. Perkins is a very talented dual threat and has been the heart and soul of Virginia’s offense this season. If Virginia wants to keep things interesting, Perkins needs to have a big time performance again. That can be helped out by his offensive line protecting him. Perkins has often times not been able to fully be unleashed against opposing defenses because he is not given time in the pocket and this week will be another case of that if the offensive line does not hold up. Perkins can also help this out by going through his progressions quickly and not holding onto the ball for too long. Running back Wayne Taulapapa has fallen behind Perkins as the primary rushing threat but he will need to do well with the opportunities he is given. On defense, cornerbacks Nick Grant and Heskin Smith can not get overpowered by Clemson’s elite receiver duo of Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross (I really wish Bryce Hall stayed healthy because him matching up with these receivers would have been fun to see). They both will be at a height disadvantage but can help themselves by keeping tight coverage. Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence had a bit of a problem with interceptions earlier in the season and strong coverage from Grant and Smith could help bring those back. The Cavaliers have five players with at least eight tackles for loss and they will need to be just as strong in pursuit against Clemson running back Travis Etienne. Etienne has 1,386 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns this season. Etienne is a tough guy to bring down and the Cavaliers need to swarm the ball.

Clemson capped off their third undefeated regular season in five years last week as they beat rival South Carolina 38-3 in the Palmetto Bowl. The Tigers were very effective through the air as Trevor Lawrence threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns while completing 72% of his passes. Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross both went over 100 receiving yards and proved to be tough to cover. Virginia might be better defending the pass than South Carolina is, but they still are far from elite. Higgins and Ross also both have a height advantage over Virginia’s cornerbacks and should be able to outmuscle them for contested catches. Virginia’s run defense is built on getting big plays as they are one of the better teams in the country in terms of causing negative plays for opposing offenses. If Clemson’s offensive line can do well in run blocking, Travis Etienne will be tough to slow down as well. On defense, the Tigers will have the tough task of slowing down Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins. Perkins is a very talented dual threat that is Virginia’s best offensive player. The good news for Clemson is that I do not see any other player on Virginia’s offense that can beat them. I think Clemson could really stunt Virginia’s offense by getting a solid pass rush and using a quarterback spy on Perkins. Linebacker Isaiah Simmons leads the team in tackles, sacks, and tackles for loss and will surely play a big role in slowing down Perkins. Defensive ends Justin Foster and Xavier Thomas should feast on a pretty faulty Virginia offense line. I think if Clemson forces someone besides Perkins to find success against their defense, it could shut down Virginia.

Prediction:

Clemson dominates but takes their foot off the gas early and wins 38-13.

Ohio State vs Wisconsin

Betting Line: Wisconsin +15.5

Over/Under: 56.5

Ohio State continued their recent dominance over rival Michigan last week as they beat the Wolverines 56-27. JK Dobbins ran absolutely wild with 211 rushing yards and four touchdowns in the win. Dobbins also had a good day when the Buckeyes played Wisconsin in the regular season as he racked up 163 yards. Dobbins is an elite workhorse back and if he can replicate his performance from the last time Ohio State and Wisconsin played, the Buckeyes will be set up quite well on offense. Justin Fields had another nice day against Michigan and has impressed me with how consistently solid he has been throwing the ball as I worried before the season that he would be a bit more erratic. Fields is nursing a knee injury, so his mobility could be hampered and he might need more time to throw. If the offensive line can grant him that, I think Fields can be a problem for Wisconsin’s defense. Where Ohio State might not matchup the best in their receivers against Wisconsin’s secondary. The Buckeyes do not have real star power at receiver but have a lot of solid options. It would take the offense to a whole other level if they could have one receiver step up this game. On defense, the Buckeyes should and most definitely will be focusing almost all of their energy on stopping Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor. Ohio State really shut down Taylor in their previous matchup and Wisconsin really could not get anywhere without him. Chase Young had an absolutely dominant performance against Wisconsin last time around and anything close to that will be huge for the Buckeyes. Linebackers Malik Harrison and Baron Browning are also playmakers at linebacker and should be used on blitzes fairly often. I think Ohio State’s cornerbacks should be able to handle one on one matchups with Wisconsin’s receivers but they can not get fooled on play action, which I think Wisconsin will try to utilize.

Wisconsin secured their third Big 10 West title in four seasons last week with a 38-17 win over rival Minnesota. The Badgers did quite well against the run, allowing just 2.5 yards per rushing attempt. Unfortunately for Wisconsin, the competition will be heating up a bit as Ohio State’s JK Dobbins is one of the best running backs in the country. Dobbins tore Wisconsin’s defense to shreds when these teams met earlier this season and the Badgers can not let that happen. Linebackers Zack Baun and Chris Orr have 18.5 and 13.5 tackles for loss respectively and they need to be able to step up and make plays against the run. The Badgers also need to be able to prevent Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields from getting too settled in the pocket. Fields will be slowed down due to nursing a knee injury and I think this will make getting an effective pass rush a lot more important as Fields will not be able to evade tackles as well. Offensively, Wisconsin needs to prevent Chase Young from wreaking absolute havoc like he did when they last played. In their last matchup, Young had four sacks and two forced fumbles. Offensive tackles Logan Bruss and Cole Van Lanen need to be able to hold their own if Wisconsin wants to get any sort of offensive yardage. As an extension of this, running back Jonathan Taylor needs to have a big day. Taylor, who was just named Big 10 running back of the year (which I only mention because I find it hilarious how mad Ohio State fans are that he won it over JK Dobbins) has 1,761 rushing yards this season on 6.3 yards per carry. While his numbers are impressive, he was held to just 52 yards on 20 carries against Ohio State earlier this season. If Wisconsin wants a chance at revenge, he needs to bring that up. One way to help out Taylor will also be for the Badgers to have some success through the air. Ohio State has an elite secondary so it will be tough but if quarterback Jack Coan can be accurate and willing to take shots at Ohio State, it is possible to get some big plays through the air. Receiver Quintez Cephus will be a key player for this game. Anything that Wisconsin can do that can remotely prevent Ohio State from loading the box every play to try and stop Taylor will be huge.

Prediction:

Wisconsin keeps it closer than the first time but Ohio State pulls out a 31-17 win.

To be notified when I post, follow my Instagram @impassionedsportsnerd. Last week, I was 3-2 picking against the spread and I am 43-39-3 against the spread this season.

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