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We think of PET as a political lion who governed for a period spanning decades – and he was, largely uninterrupted from 1968 to 1984. But it almost wasn’t so. The Trudeau legacy was almost cut short early on, during his first shot at re-election in 1972.

On the evening of the October 30, 1972 election the initial vote count showed the Liberals at 107 seats and the Progressive Conservatives at 109. Trudeau went to bed that night believing he’d lost. The PCs had a plurality of votes and could work to cobble together a minority government. But then a recount reversed one of those seats, putting the incumbent PM back on top.

Trudeau kept a minority government in place for two years before turning to the voters in 1974 where he scored a renewed majority mandate. The rest is history and Trudeau went on to win again.

But if Pierre Trudeau hadn’t narrowly survived in 1972, that would’ve been it. He’d be a one-hit wonder without an enduring legacy.

This is where Canada is at right now. Justin Trudeau was hugely popular at first but the polls show his support has dropped every year of his first term.

What is his true legislative legacy at this point? The legalization of marijuana. And the Canada Child Benefit. Maybe the carbon tax, if it survives. Other than that, he has few victories to campaign on.

If Trudeau loses now, he’ll be seen as a blip, a curious experiment about what happens when you elect a person to govern a G7 nation based on name recognition and selfie game alone. There will be no legacy. He won’t get to mingle with Brian Mulroney, Jean Chretien and Stephen Harper at special events, but be assigned to the second row with Joe Clark and Kim Campbell.