I seriously doubt that either Clinton or Bernie would get the number of votes/delegates in the primaries that they got in 2016. Bernie benefitted from being the only viable alternative after O'Malley dropped out very early in the primaries. Both had devoted supporters, but, as in ANY race, there were also many choosing between two choices that they could support, but would have preferred other (in many cases not known) choices.



I suspect that even if some Democratic leaders have NO intention of running, they would play with the idea with the media because they then get more coverage and are heard more. Not to mention, it is nearly impossible for any politician who has ever run to say "no" strongly enough that the media won't ask again. Hillary has said "no" pretty strongly, but the media tries to get statements that they then suggest as her leaving open the door - such as asking her if she would like to be President, right after she denied she was running. Obviously she wanted to be President and thought she would be a good one - that's why she ran. It's not just Hillary, the media did the same to Kerry - he answered Morning Joe that he was not planning a run or talking to anyone - to which MJ said - You didn't rule it out. As he has done his book tour, he diverts the question to saying no one should be talking of 2020 - 2018 is too important. While that ends the conversation, the pundits have suggested it means he is running. (One good clue is that in 2006 when he really considered the idea, he reopened his Johnkerry.com blog on his never closed Johnkerry.com site - he closed that site when he became Secretary of State and it is still not there and - to my knowledge, there is no alternative site.)



In fact, we will know by mid next year who is actually hiring people and putting together a team. We will know who is visiting NH and Iowa AFTER THE 2018 election. (While it is true that anyone interested in 2020 - not in a race of their own - will be out now, so are people like Obama.)