MOSCOW — Spain might have done it last time around, but that was a one-off. Yes, there was Italy, too, of course, four years before that. The circumstances this time are completely different, though. And, fine, exactly the same thing happened to France back in 2002, but that’s France.

Germany, obviously, is different. Germany would not be so careless as to make the same mistake.

It would be foolish, even after a chastening 1-0 defeat to Mexico on Sunday, to suggest that Germany, the reigning champion, might not even make it out of the group stage at this World Cup.

When it was pointed out to the country’s coach, Joachim Löw, that three of the last four champions have suffered precisely that fate, he dismissed it as not just a curiosity and a quirk but an irrelevance.

“I have no idea why that might be the case,” he said. “But we will qualify for the next round.”

His confidence, his coolness, is understandable. Germany has too much quality to fall at the first hurdle. Defeat to Mexico is a setback, a test, but there is no reason it should prove fatal.