More and more news headlines and stock market analysts’ reports have started predicting, or at least insinuating, that a recession could be near in the United States.

I’ve been skeptical; the economy may not be great, but I’ve had a hard time envisioning how economic turmoil in countries like China and Brazil and supercheap oil could somehow combine to drag down the mighty United States economy. That’s why my October article on the economic outlook ended not with any bold conclusion, but with the “shruggie” emoticon.

But after thinking about it some more and talking with some people on the pessimistic end of the spectrum, I think I have a handle on how the economy could end up in a substantially worse place by the end of the year.

Here’s that narrative.

What we’re dealing with isn’t just a run-of-the-mill economic slowdown in emerging markets, but the reversal of a 15-year cycle in which capital has flowed into emerging markets year after year while debt grew. Now that’s reversing, and we’re seeing a version of Warren Buffett’s maxim that “you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.”