There is a general air of scepticism prevailing that Sarah Palin won't bother running for the Republican nomination in 2012 because, how could she be any more awesome than she is now?

As things stand she gets the bendy straws and Lear Jets, the fancy hotels, the big speaking fees, book and TV deals, all without the messy business of running for anything. After all, she stepped down halfway through her term as governor of Alaska to spend more time collecting free bendy straws.

Personally, I'm not convinced. For one thing her value is partly predicated on her being a contender in 2012. For another thing, why the hell not? Have you seen the rest of the Republican field? Mitt Romney? Mike Huckabee? Or what about someone no-one has heard of, like whatshisname from that place? The fact that Newt Gingrich is a semi-plausible figure in the race tells you everything you need to know. Sarah Palin would be nuts not to run. She said as much to Fox News back in February.



There are flaws in the "Palin is most definitely running in 2012" scenario, such as the fact that even quite a few Republicans don't like her, according to polls. But they don't much like anyone else, either. In any case, the ones that do like Palin adore her and will turn out in Iowa and New Hampshire in January in six-foot-deep snow drifts to caucus and vote, and that's what counts. She is far and away the Republican party's biggest star. And she'd have the Tea Party smoke monster behind her.

Palin herself seems to be getting ready for God to tell her to run, according to this recent outing:

Palin said she and her family have had an "exciting and full ride" since the 2008 presidential campaign ended. Her travels around the country over the last year and a half, she explained, have given her a glimpse of some of the struggles that regular Americans face every day. "If I can help provide some encouragement, some inspiration, some hope for them to get through their battles and make good decisions and get through a challenge, because that's what we've been able to do, then I am going to stay focused on that," she said in the interview, set to air next week. "Whether that's on a local level in my own little town of Wasilla, or in the Oval Office, if it's right, then we will pursue that." Palin said her next move depends, in part, on what God has in store for her. "I do believe that it is a wise thing for us to put our lives in our Creator's hands," she said. "I put my life into God's hands and say, I'm going to do the best that I can every day to bring positive change to people that perhaps need some help. Need opportunity, too."

So what would stop Sarah Palin running for, and winning, the presidential nomination? Two things.

One is the possibility that a coalition of heavyweight Republicans inside the party – Karl Rove, Haley Barbour, etc – coalesce behind a "stop Palin" candidate, which might be Romney but could equally be a Mitch Daniels or Tim Pawlenty type, and throw all their resources behind him. They'd then have to shove all the other semi-plausible vote-splitting candidates (such as Romney) out of the race. (The likes of Huckabee could stay in the race to slice off some of Palin's religio-right support.)

Could that happen? The more plausible a threat Palin is, the more likely this is. But the current state of the Republican party doesn't lend much credence to that idea.

No, the most likely thing to stop Sarah Palin in 2012 is ... Sarah Palin. The question is, can she muster the self-discipline to manage a nationwide presidential campaign? Does she have access to the talent that would enable her to gather a good campaigning team around her? Can she select and retain senior staff and advisors? Because if she can do most of those things, she will probably be the 2012 Republican nominee – and there's not much the rest of the party can do to stop her.

There's a lot of hard work that goes into rounding up caucus-goers in Iowa, and it remains to be seen if Palin has the personal capacity to run such an organisation. So far, though, she's handled her life as permanent candidate in waiting well enough. So maybe she has got what it takes, even if her history suggests otherwise.

Speculating about presidential candidates 20 months before any real votes are cast is a dangerous business. At this point in 2006 it seemed the choice in 2008 would be between President Clinton or President Giuliani, and look how that turned out. But unless an alternative emerges, it's Palin's to win or to lose.