UFC 204 is coming up soon and the main event is a bit of a letdown to fans of competitive matchups. Join us as we take an in-depth look at one of the more compelling fights on the card.

The UFC’s current middleweight title picture is an embarrassment of riches. Yoel Romero is coming off a seven-fight winning streak including names such as Jacare and Lyoto Machida, as well as a win over Derek Brunson that looks increasingly impressive each time he fights. Jacare Souza’s only loss in the last 5 years came in a questionable decision to Romero, but aside from that he’s recently dominated Vitor Belfort and Gegard Mousasi. Former champion Chris Weidman was given a chance to reclaim his title at UFC 199, but an injury ended his luck. Finally, there’s Luke Rockhold, the man Michael Bisping upset to capture the title after Weidman pulled out.

Romero or Jacare seem like the most sensible options for the next title shot, but instead the UFC has decided to make the middleweight contenders fight amongst themselves while they trot Bisping off to fight Dan Henderson at UFC 204. Henderson famously knocked Bisping out in devastating fashion at UFC 100, but he’s since faded to a shell of his former self, losing to every top middleweight he’s fought along the way.

The sport of MMA has taught us time and time again that counting anyone out is a great way to end up shocked. This lesson has been reinforced in recent weeks by Eric Spicely and Brandon Moreno, one brought in as a sacrifice to the Brazilian crowd, the other a short-notice replacement who most gave little chance.

But we can allow for the possibility that Henderson might shock us while still admitting that the matchup is not compelling. The proverbial “puncher’s chance” rarely makes for an interesting matchup, especially when that puncher is as one-note as Henderson has been recently.

Fortunately, the co-main event is a truly compelling matchup between Vitor Belfort and Gegard Mousasi. Both men sit precariously on the fringe of contention, Belfort having been knocked off recently, while Mousasi has struggled to string together quality wins.

The outcome of this fight has relevant consequences for the division. It could provide the momentum Belfort needs to spring himself into one last title run, or it could represent Mousasi finally getting the big win that will propel him into the upper echelon.

The Dreamcatcher

Mousasi primarily attacks with his two longest weapons – an incredibly versatile jab and an inside leg kick. He uses his jab to set a comfortable distance and keep his opponent a step away from him. He’ll show the jab when his opponent moves into the pocket to scare them off, or while retreating to break their rhythm on a combination.

When opponents start trying to parry or give ground to avoid the jab, he’ll flick a jab to get them backing up and catch them with an inside leg kick as they move out of range.

The extra step of distance that Mousasi keeps give him time to read the entries of his opponents and counter or disengage. When he wants to cover the distance himself, he’ll hide his entries behind a jab, keeping his feet underneath him while he advances to set up the right hand.

His sense of distance is so great that he is rarely forced to check leg kicks, instead he’ll just slide out of range before or after landing his own.

Setting such a large distance and consistently keeping himself out of range when attacking gets frustrating for opponents to deal with, and their entries will often get progressively more desperate.

Mousasi kept Thales Leites on the end of his jab until Leites began throwing caution to the wind and running in, at which point Mousasi would tag him with a counter straight. Dan Henderson was knocked out shuffling onto Mousasi’s right hand after struggling to find entries early.

Mousasi is something of an all-terrain fighter, capable of playing the outfighter as well as corralling an elusive opponent, but he seems most comfortable moving forward. He uses the jab to back his man up while keeping himself out of range on the front foot. Careful, patient footwork allows him to line a circling fighter up by taking small steps and pivoting on his rear foot to keep his back to the center of the Octagon.

It’s difficult to draw Mousasi into counters as he advances because he does so gradually. Large, explosive forward movements are a counter-puncher’s dream, but Mousasi keeps his feet under him when he moves forward and covers his entries with the jab. Even so, Mousasi has a tendency to overextend himself on his straight right while moving forward and leaving his rear foot behind.

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The Phenom

In recent years, Vitor Belfort has learned to temper his aggression with experience and develop a fundamentally sound kickboxing game. Like Mousasi, he keeps an extra step of distance between himself and his opponent. Belfort will fill that distance with kicks and the occasional straight, but his best work with his hands is done on the counter as his opponents step in to cover that distance. He’s largely one-sided, heavily favoring his rear side, but he has a solid counter lead hook when opponents step onto him with their straight.

Belfort’s game is built around the traditional southpaw double attack. Straight lefts bring the opponent’s hand in front of their face to parry and get them slipping off-line, headkicks bring their arm tight to the side of their head and keep them upright.

Each one starts with a similar motion – and can be easily feinted into the other – and attacks the openings that are exposed by the other. Focus too much on defending the straight and you’ll slip right into a headkick. Focus too much on the headkick and you remain bolt upright with a hole down the middle of your guard.

The best technical performance of Belfort’s career came against current champion, Michael Bisping. The straight and headkick were manipulating Bisping’s guard and creating openings for one another, and Belfort went to work with body kicks to create an additional threat that plays upon the others, something he’s since mostly abandoned. Bisping struggled to get his own offense going because Belfort was able to time him with counters when he stepped in.

Belfort has a solid counter hook when opponents try to step in on him with the straight.

Although he will charge forward and swarm when he has opponents hurt, Belfort has recently been fighting mostly off the backfoot. At range, he circles almost solely toward his rear hand. He’ll feint direction changes once in awhile, but rarely ever commits to moving toward his lead side when backing up.

This helps encourage guys to walk onto his rear punches and kicks, but it makes his movement predictable and allows him to be lead into strikes. Lyoto Machida had success against Mousasi by changing directions rapidly and stepping one way with a punch before pivoting out the other, something Belfort would be wise to add into his game.

Experience has made Belfort a more patient and intelligent fighter, but his performances are often marred by mind-boggling decisions. It seems after a certain point in a fight that isn’t going his way, Belfort begins looking for an out.

I don’t know how else to explain pulling guard against one of the best top players in the known universe and attempting to punch his way out of Chris Weidman’s mount. This is the kind of decision making we expect from Milana Dudieva, not a veteran of the sport.

Gameplans

Mousasi has been winning fights with his offensive wrestling lately and it seems likely that he’ll try to implement it against Belfort. Belfort is very difficult to take down in the open, but Jacare would back him up to the fence and shoot in just to get his back on the cage. Mousasi will have trouble taking Belfort down directly with shots, but he can use them to push Belfort against the fence and work his clinch game.

Belfort struggled with Weidman’s patient footwork and refusal to walk onto counters. If Mousasi is able to maintain his distance with the jab and keep his feet under him as he advances, Belfort should have trouble intercepting him as he moves forward.

On Belfort’s side, he needs to actively draw out the punches from Mousasi that he wants to counter. If you wait on Mousasi to throw the jab before trying to counter, you’ll be stuck on the end of it all night. Belfort needs to jab with Mousasi and feint entries in order to get him throwing the jab when Belfort wants him to. This is especially important because Mousasi will throw jabs to draw counters and exploit the resulting openings. If Belfort is able to take the initiative by using feints and throwaway punches to draw out Mousasi’s jab, the counters will come easier.

Belfort’s habit of circling to his rear side takes him out of the path of the jab and encourages Mousasi to throw the right hand. This could be useful if he can get Mousasi over-extending on the straight and start catching him with counter hooks, but it’s also easy to envision Belfort getting in trouble for circling predictably. Mousasi scored a brilliant knockdown over Thiago Santos by cutting him off with right hooks to stand him still for some big uppercuts.

This fight is Mousasi’s to lose if he can deny opportunities for Belfort’s counter punches and use the clinch to slow it down early. Belfort is as dangerous as anyone in the first round but tends to fade as the fight goes on. Expect to see Belfort come out swinging and give Mousasi trouble early, but Mousasi will likely take over in the later rounds if he’s able to weather the storm