Fears are growing that the economic impact of the Ebola crisis could lead to unrest and political crises in west African countries

Farmers in Liberia are too frightened to work together in their fields, fertilisers and seeds are stuck on the other side of closed borders, markets are almost empty, people have less money because jobs that involve physical contact with others are disappearing, and prices for everything from cassava to palm oil are rising.

It’s a devastating chain reaction sparked by an unprecedented outbreak of disease in one of the world’s poorest countries. Beyond the high mortality rate and human suffering, aid agencies fear the fabric of a society that endured a brutal civil conflict may be ruined.

Ten months after the Ebola outbreak started in Guinea, evidence is mounting that the crisis may be reversing more than a decade of fitful progress in west Africa.

Simon O’Connell, regional director for aid group Mercy Corps, says that – despite several years of 6%-8% growth and significant development gains – Liberia’s gross domestic product per capita is still only about $450 (£281), a figure below prewar levels in 1989.

“It’s taken that entire period, from the war ending in 2003, to just about get back to those prewar levels,” he said. “Then we see the price spikes, this disruption in access to markets, and also the breaking down of social fabrics, the trust between communities, between different demographics and between communities and governments.

“We are … trying to ensure that this outbreak doesn’t undermine development gains and, of course, there is a risk of that the longer the crisis plays out.”

Before this crisis, Liberia was rebuilding after a 14-year period during which there were two civil wars (1989-1996; 1999-2003). More than 250,000 people were killed in the conflicts. Reconstruction was slow: before the Ebola outbreak, the country had only about 50 doctors for a population of more than 4 million. Now, even that progress has been threatened because of a disease that has killed more than 2,700 Liberians (pdf).

Mercy Corps, which has been in Liberia since 2002, has carried out an assessment of households and markets in Liberia’s remote Lofa and Nimba counties, and around the capital, Monrovia. It found that 55% of households have experienced a reduction in incomes, 60% have higher expenses, and nearly half are eating fewer meals.

There are fewer trucks on the road – either because they are unable to travel during the 11pm-6am curfew or because drivers do not want to venture into remote areas.

Mercy Corps found rice prices had risen by about 20% while commodities such as palm oil had risen by up to 50% in Monrovia. These findings are echoed by other agencies: the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation says cassava prices have risen by about 150%.

Shenggen Fan, director general of the International Food Policy Research Institute, says smaller harvests are expected for both staple and cash crops because of quarantined zones and restrictions on movement in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

“These disruptions in production, labour markets and trade/transportation have serious implications for food security and nutrition of poor and vulnerable groups,” Fan said. “Poor people spend a large proportion – about 50-70% – of their income on food, so rapid increases in the prices of staple foods harm them by reducing their … access to food.

“The health impacts of Ebola are devastating. But without prompt action by national governments and the international community, Ebola can trigger a food crisis that may persist beyond the disease’s lifecycle.”

Ebola has changed the way people farm in Liberia. “One of the major changes is that the kuus agricultural labour system is not functioning as it was previously. This is a pooling of labour and it used to [involve] between 30 and 50 people. It is now being reduced to smaller groups, between five and 10 people. This has led to a significant reduction in agricultural production,” said O’Connell. “It’s a sort of spiralling effect overall, which is compounding the situation.” The famine early warning systems network, Fewsnet, has said about 1.3 million people could need emergency food aid from January (pdf) in the three countries.

Fears are rising that the disease, and the attendant social upheaval, could lead to unrest in countries where a large proportion of the population is young and unemployed. In a September briefing note, the International Crisis Group said the health crisis risked becoming a political crisis.

“Adding social breakdown to the epidemic would create disaster perhaps impossible to manage,” it said. “The Ebola epidemic has exposed citizens’ lack of trust in their governments and the grave potential for deep unrest in these already fragile societies. In all three countries, past civil conflicts fuelled by local and regional antagonisms could resurface.”

US officials are also worried about food insecurity. “We have Fewsnet tracking key indicators like market prices, the price of staples and the ability to get to market. These are all factors that are contributing to rising food insecurity and for that reason, not only are we responding to controlling the outbreak but also looking – through the World Food Programme [WFP] and others – at how to address food security,” said Nancy Lindborg, USAid’s assistant administrator for the bureau for democracy, conflict and humanitarian assistance.

While food shortages are an issue, people’s inability to afford food because of declining purchasing power is also a problem, said Alexis Masciarelli, WFP’s regional spokesman. “What’s important is not so much the prices. It’s more the purchasing power [of households] … Plantations have closed, mines are closed, schools have closed and there is no investment,” he said.

“Liberia remains one of poorest countries in the world, with tremendous needs … this is a humanitarian crisis on an unprecedented scale,” said O’Connell. “Much more mobilisation is needed in a much more multilateral way, much quicker so we can respond at speed and at scale.”