PASSENGER growth has risen again on National Rail -- and the rate of growth is also going up.

It reached 6.7 per cent in the three months from November.

The Office of Rail Regulation said total journeys, as reported by the Lennon ticketing database, reached 429.8 million in that quarter, which is the highest recorded in modern times.

If repeated over a full year, the resulting total would be higher than the landmark 'demobilisation' year of 1945, even allowing for the fact that Lennon counts individual 'legs' of journeys and therefore exaggerates the total compared with historical figures.

The total of passenger kilometres also rose again, by 6.5 per cent. Passenger kms are boosted by the fact that the average rail journey is significantly longer now than in former times, and have probably reached an all-time record. However timetabled train kilometres increased hardly at all, by just 0.5 per cent. which implies that some trains are becoming more crowded.

In a related development, an updated version of the industry’s long-term rolling stock strategy says increasing passenger numbers, withdrawal of Pacers and delays to planned electrification schemes mean there is a “short-term requirement” for between 350 and 500 'non-electric' vehicles, and possibly as many as 19,000 new electric vehicles by 2044.

The short-term need for additional non-electric vehicles is despite the number of new electric vehicles which are to be built during Control Period 5 (up to 2019) and in the early years of CP6, which is “now approaching 3,800,” according to the strategy. It says: “This represents a capital cost of more than £6 billion, at an average build rate of 12 vehicles per week, compared with an average of just four vehicles per week in the five years of CP4 (2009-14)."

It also comments that: "Vehicle owners and train operators have also become increasingly innovative at adapting and extending the lives of older vehicles." Two current examples of this are the proposals to convert former London Underground D78 stock from electric to diesel traction, and leasing company Porterbrook's 'Evolution' project to rebuild Class 144 Pacers, making them compliant with tighter disabled access rules which come into force towards the end of this decade.

The report has been prepared by a pan-industry steering group chaired by Richard Brown, former chief executive and chairman of Eurostar.

It adds: "Some new and additional non-electric vehicles will be required in CP5 and early in CP6, as a result of the existing levels of crowding and continuing strong growth of passenger demand on some non-electrified routes, the assumed replacement of the ‘Pacer’ vehicles and the rate of completion of the committed programme of electrification.

For the longer term, it says that: “Peak and off-peak passenger growth across all market segments is forecast to continue and it will be necessary to expand the rolling stock fleet to avoid crowding.”

It adds: “Analysis indicates that between 13,000 and 19,000 new electric vehicles will be required over the 30 years to 2044.

“Electrification will in many cases permit longer trains, and will enable diesel trains to be transferred to non-electrified routes, where growth has been constrained by lack of sufficient vehicles.

“The modelling of electrification and growth demonstrates a reduction in rolling stock unit costs of more than 30 per cent in all scenarios. The strategy emphasises the resulting benefits to passengers, including improvements to punctuality and reliability.”

Of the growth in passenger numbers between last November and January, the ORR said: “This is the highest number of journeys recorded in a quarter since data collection began in 2002-03, and a 6.7 per cent increase on the same quarter last year.”

London and South East recorded the highest growth, eight per cent, but passenger kilometres only grew by 6.8 per cent.

By comparison, long distance intercity journeys went up by 5.1 per cent but passenger kms grew 6.9 per cent, indicating passengers making longer journeys. And the growth in journeys was more than twice that allowed for in HS2 Ltd’s business case.

Regional services also recorded growth in the last quarter – 3.1 per cent more journeys, covering five per cent more passenger kms.

Compared to other European railways the ORR said: “Since 2008 the number of passenger journeys has increased by 23 per cent. This is the biggest increase in journeys of any EU country that reports to Eurostat.”