This article is part of a series that examines predictions about the future. So far, we've looked at predictions for 2025 and explored 2004 predictions about online voting, cybersecurity, health care, politics, broadband access, family and the Internet of Things. If you want to discuss this series with us and potentially be included in a future article, join the U.S. News Futurology Facebook group.



Like health, the technological revolution that would disrupt education has been heavy on optimistic predictions, but short on change. Schools still look much the same as when our parents or grandparents attended: teachers stand in the front of classrooms, lecturing on different topics, while students try to pay attention and learn something. What they learn is later tested and grades are awarded based on their improvement or the knowledge learned.

Computers in schools have skyrocketed in the past two decades and by 2000 most had Internet. Still, the model is much the same, no matter what a student uses to do assignments, take tests or access the library.



Lindsey Cook for USN&WR; Source: National Center for Education Statistics

In 2004, experts imagined a different landscape for education by 2014. Here's what they thought and how it has turned out:

Formal education

2004 prediction: Enabled by information technologies, the pace of learning in the next decade will increasingly be set by student choices. In 10 years, most students will spend at least part of their “school days” in virtual classes, grouped online with others who share their interests, mastery and skills.

















































“The biggest impact on the world will be universal access to all human knowledge," he said. "The smartest person in the world currently could well be stuck behind a plow in India or China. Enabling that person – and the millions like him or her – will have a profound impact on the development of the human race. Cheap mobile devices will be available worldwide, and educational tools like the Khan Academy will be available to everyone. This will have a huge impact on literacy and numeracy and will lead to a more informed and more educated world population.”

Coursera's President and Co-Founder Daphne Koller says the company is headed toward this model.

"We would like to have 3,000 courses that are on all the time so that you can have education the same way you have water, by turning on the path," she says. "If you want to learn something, we want to be there for you, across a range of difficulties and across a range of languages."



Online resources are particularly important for sectors that need more applicants than schools are churning out, such as the technology sector where online certifications have popped up everywhere to train potential coders. The most population course on Coursera is "Programming Mobile Applications for Android Handheld Systems" by the University of Maryland, which had a high enrollment of 250,051 learners.



While the type of learning predicted in 2004 hasn't reached K-12, learning is moving online. As one expert predicted, "the role of the Web and Internet as a critical SUPPLEMENT to the activities in the classroom, both K-12 and college," instead of a replacement.



Flipped classrooms are gaining traction and students can check their grades, submit assignments and view lecture notes online. In K-12, online learning is used to make up snow days. Schools also use online learning for credit recovery and to increase course offerings. Half a million teachers use Khan Academy lessons in their classrooms, according to its website.



Some schools have moved entirely online. Oregon Virtual Academy is an online, public charter school and some schools are replacing teachers with computers. More than half of states have state virtual schools. While many virtual state schools are growing, schools in Colorado, Hawaii, Iowa, Mississippi, Texas and Utah are shrinking – some drastically so.



Courtesy Keeping Pace with K-12