HGC 2018, Phase 1, Week 2

North America:

Europe:

Map Picks

Map Pick Priority

Map Ban Priority

Hero Picks

Hero Priority by Region

Less Used Heroes

New Hero Performance

Team/Match Analysis

Team Dignitas - Unquestioned Kings of EU

Zealots and Diamond Skin - Rise of the Mid-Tier

LFM Esports and HeroesHearth Esports - The Children of the Crucible

Team Freedom vs Tempo Storm - And the Top NA Team is....?

Final Thoughts and Games to Watch Next Week

Hello there! I'm CriticKitten. You may know me from my previous segments, 7 Days Later, in which I keep track of how heroes are performing after recent balance patches. Here is a link to my most recent edition of that series. I've also been responsible for writing a segment entitled "Fixing the Meta", in which I discuss possible adjustments to the game to create a more appealing meta. Here is a link to my most recent edition of that series. I am currently hard at work on new articles for both of these segments, so please look forward to those in the future.But today, we're here to talk about the HGC! This is my new running series discussing the stats from the HGC each week. And of course, being the stats nerd that I am, I'm going to cover these matches in waaaaaay too much depth, and possibly drive myself crazy, all for your benefit and enjoyment! So....enjoy!Big shoutout to /u/Borania for providing the stats for HGC Korea!Be warned that there are spoilers in this post, so if you have not watched this week's HGC matches and wish to do so without being spoiled about the results,! Also, keep in mind that these are in-depth posts meant to cover a variety of statistics with tables and graphs. As such, they tend to be very long posts. Just giving fair warning!Each week in the HGC, teams from each region face off against other teams from their region. Each match is a Best-of-5 series, and there are six matches played per week in each region. The matches (and results) for the HGC this week were....vs Team Twelve (3-2)vs HeroesHearth Esports (3-1)vs Gale Force Esports (3-2)vs Spacestation Gaming (3-0)Simplicity vs(1-3)vs Tempo Storm (3-2)Method vs(1-3)vs Diamond Skin (3-0)Leftovers vs(0-3)vs Team Liquid (3-2)vs Fnatic (3-2)vs Method (3-0)The current standings for the league can be found on the HGC site at this location Below is my analysis of this week's HGC action. If you're having trouble reading any table in this article, you can see the table in full-size by clicking on it. Keep in mind that this analysis does not cover every single match directly, nor every single little detail, as that would be an exhaustive list of data that would take literal days to compile. While I always try to discuss all matches, I will focus this analysis primarily on details that I felt were interesting or relevant for this week. You are welcome to request any information that I do not provide in this analysis in the comments below, or on Reddit. I'm happy to share what I have!Below is a list of the pick/win rates of each map this week, as well as by region.1) Infernal Shrines (18% of all games)2) Sky Temple (16% of all games)Tied 3) Dragon Shrine (14% of all games)Tied 3) Tomb of the Spider Queen (14% of all games)5) Towers of Doom (12% of all games)1) Infernal Shrines (22.73% of all games)2) Tomb of the Spider Queen (20.45% of all games)3) Battlefield of Eternity (15.91% of all games)4) Towers of Doom (11.36% of all games)5) Sky Temple (9.09% of all games)1) Sky Temple (20% of all games)2) Cursed Hollow (17.5% of all games)3) Dragon Shire (15% of all games)Tied 4) Battlefield of Eternity (12.5% of all games)Tied 4) Infernal Shrines (12.5% of all games)Tied 4) Tomb of the Spider Queen (12.5% of all games)EU's map picks are much like last week's, though Dragon Shire fell out of favor a bit as it dropped out of the top five. NA and KR's map picks showcase a bit more diversity, as the picks are more spread out and cover 8 of the 9 maps in the game. Worth noting is that nobody seems to be willing to touch Braxis Holdout, effectively making this an 8-map rotation rather than 9.1) Braxis Holdout (banned 75% of the time)Tied 2) Battlefield of Eternity (banned 33.33% of the time)Tied 2) Volskaya Foundry (banned 33.33% of the time)Tied 4) Cursed Hollow (banned 16.67% of the time)Tied 4) Towers of Doom (banned 16.67% of the time)Tied 1) Braxis Holdout (banned 66.67% of the time)Tied 1) Cursed Hollow (banned 66.67% of the time)3) Volskaya Foundry (banned 33.33% of the time)4) Dragon Shire (banned 25% of the time)5) Sky Temple (banned 8.33% of the time)1) Braxis Holdout (banned 75% of the time)2) Volskaya Foundry (banned 58.33% of the time)Tied 3) Battlefield of Eternity (banned 25% of the time)Tied 3) Towers of Doom (banned 25% of the time)Tied 5) Cursed Hollow (banned 8.33% of the time)Tied 5) Dragon Shire (banned 8.33% of the time)Every region is banning out Braxis Holdout at a high level, and Volskaya at a somewhat lower level, and this has continued into week 2. NA also seems to dislike Battlefield of Eternity, which is a decently high pick for other regions, so that may be a good thing. Cursed Hollow continues to be a priority ban of EU, with the only change being an increase in Dragon Shire bans and a subsequent drop in Sky Temple bans. Korea also prioritizes Volskaya Foundry as a priority ban, so it's less likely we'll be seeing any 30 minute Azmodans in international play.1) Greymane (98.51% popularity rate, 41.9% win rate)2) Genji (97.01% popularity rate, 41.03% win rate)3) Hanzo (94.78% popularity rate, 65.12% win rate)4) E.T.C. (66.42% popularity rate, 57.14% win rate)5) Uther (62.69% popularity rate, 63.51% win rate)6) Anub'arak (55.97% popularity rate, 52.38% win rate)7) Lucio (55.97% popularity rate, 45.45% win rate)8) Abathur (55.97% popularity rate, 40% win rate)9) Malthael (52.99% popularity rate, 59.38% win rate)10) Dehaka (50% popularity rate, 50.94% win rate)Nothing too surprising here this week. Genji, Hanzo, and Greymane remain the most popular choices at the assassin role. Genji provides some of the best dive, Hanzo some of the best poke, and Greymane is reliable in both roles. Uther and Lucio are the most popular healers after two weeks, with Rehgar losing favor after a tough first week. E.T.C. and Anub'arak were the most popular tanks overall, with Dehaka and Malthael also very popular as the melee bruiser and solo lane role in a solo-support meta that favors heroes with good self-sustain.1) Hanzo (100% popularity rate, 69.7% win rate)2) Greymane (100% popularity rate, 27.03% win rate)3) Genji (96% popularity rate, 37.5% win rate)4) E.T.C. (88% popularity rate, 64.29% win rate)5) Lucio (86% popularity rate, 58.33% win rate)6) Malthael (70% popularity rate, 66.67% win rate)7) Dehaka (56% popularity rate, 50% win rate)8) Tychus (48% popularity rate, 52.17% win rate)9) Tassadar (46% popularity rate, 73.33% win rate)10) Uther (46% popularity rate, 55% win rate)1) Greymane (95.45% popularity rate, 51.52% win rate)2) Genji (95.45% popularity rate, 42.86% win rate)3) Hanzo (86.36% popularity rate, 54.55% win rate)4) Malfurion (68.18% popularity rate, 53.85% win rate)5) Abathur (65.91% popularity rate, 100% win rate)6) Uther (63.64% popularity rate, 60.87% win rate)7) Gul'dan (63.64% popularity rate, 55.56% win rate)8) Arthas (59.09% popularity rate, 66.67% win rate)9) E.T.C. (59.09% popularity rate, 52.63% win rate)10) Muradin (56.82% popularity rate, 44% win rate)1) Greymane (100% popularity rate, 48.57% win rate)2) Genji (100% popularity rate, 43.75% win rate)3) Hanzo (97.5% popularity rate, 75% win rate)4) Sonya (90% popularity rate, 41.38% win rate)5) Anub'arak (85% popularity rate, 66.67% win rate)6) Uther (82.5% popularity rate, 70.97% win rate)7) Rehgar (72.5% popularity rate, 46.43% win rate)8) Abathur (65% popularity rate, 25% win rate)9) Tychus (47.5% popularity rate, 56.25% win rate)10) E.T.C. (47.5% popularity rate, 44.44% win rate)NA's list saw some relatively minor shuffling, with many of the same top choices being the same. Leoric and Arthas fell off the list in favor of Tassadar and Uther as the region's support meta begins to diversify a bit more, but Lucio remains their favorite healer. EU's seen some big shifts in their hero selections as Rehgar and Malthael dropped off of the top ten. Rehgar's failure to perform last week was likely a strong contributing factor to the rise of Uther. Abathur remains almost entirely composed of bans with very little actual play, as EU and KR are almost afraid to let him show up. Korea's big difference factor is their continued push of the Sonya as a top solo laner and bruiser pick,and also their higher preference for Anub'arak over other tanks. Worth noting that Muradin also had a 47.5% popularity rate in Korea, but had a lower win rate than Tychus or E.T.C., so he didn't quite make the top ten list. Nonetheless, there are some distinct similarities between EU and KR right now, which is not too surprising, but each region continues to experiment with its own regional preferences.Samuro, Sylvanas, XulAzmodan, Cho'Gall, Kel'Thuzad, Nazeebo, Nova, Sgt Hammer, The Lost Vikings, Thrall, ZaryaAlarak, Ana, Chen, Gazlowe, Li Li, Lt. Morales, Murky, Probius, Raynor, Rexxar, The Butcher, Tyrande, Valeera, Varian, Zagara, Zul'jinThanks to the addition of Korea's stats, plus this weekend's new additions, we've now expanded our previous list to 60 heroes played so far this season (51 NA, 46 EU, 45 KR). When removing the lesser-used heroes on the above list, that narrows to 48 total heroes (38 NA, 33 EU, 32 KR). This weekend was a crazy one, with the premiere of Nova and Cho'Gall in HGC 2018 play. However, this still means that only 63.16% of the total hero pool is being utilized with some degree of regularity, which is definitely not a great thing to say across 134 games. It gets worse when you look at specific regions, with only 42.11% of the roster used in Korea and 43.42% in EU. While it doesn't quite meet the meme of "same 10 heroes every game" that Twitch chat adores, it is definitely not encouraging, either.Alexstrazsa (8.21% popularity rate, 27.27% win rate)Hanzo (94.78% popularity rate, 65.12% win rate)Blaze (6.72% popularity rate, 66.67% win rate)Hanzo continues to see high draft priority with great success. We won't know how the recent nerfs have affected him for another week or two, so we're going to have to continue putting up with it for the time being. Alex is still being attempted, though less than last week, and her win rate is likely not going to improve until we see further tweaks to her solo support capabilities. Blaze is the new hotness (pun intended) and saw some experimentation in both EU and KR, though basically no consideration in NA.Let's look at the play by each team this week. We won't be covering all of the teams, of course, as that would make an already long post even longer. Rather, we'll be looking at just a few teams and matches who I felt deserved the extra analysis and attention. Also, remember that I've limited my coverage to NA/EU, since I have not been able to watch the KR games for myself. As such, do not expect any analysis of Korea's current standings.Dignitas went undefeated this weekend, and continued their trend of not even dropping a single map. This was expected between them and Diamond Skin, but for them to also clean house against Method (a team arguably competing for the top of EU) is a very scary prospect. There's essentially nothing that stands out distinctly in this roster to date, with each player having fairly deep hero pools of 5-6 heroes over the course of three different match ups. The only perceived weakness that a team might be able to exploit is perhaps Zaelia's smaller hero pool, which is composed entirely of Malfurion and Uther to date (seen in the graph below). Since Dignitas tends to draft his hero in the first two slots (as the graph below shows), this means a team would need to ban out or steal both of these heroes to exploit this....and it doesn't mean that Zaelia couldn't just as easily pull out some other hero instead. Still, it will be interesting to see if any team tries to exploit this in the weeks to come.Leftovers is the next team to try and stop Dignitas from running the table....but Leftovers has yet to take a single map off of anybody, so it seems a tall order. Nevertheless, they will have to try next week!With the changes to the rules potentially opening an extra EU slot up for international play, everyone's scrambling to be in a position to earn that coveted spot. Previously, you might have thought that discussion was obvious, but this weekend's games threw several monkey wrenches into the European scene. Zealots defeated Fnatic, and Diamond Skin stunned the previously undefeated Team Liquid. Both were 5-game match ups that featured excellent play from teams that many expected to settle firmly into the mid-tier, but are now seemingly refusing to fade quietly into the background, instead pushing hard to be part of the conversation for which team follows behind Dignitas.On the Zealots front, we saw them play with expectations by having adrd swap between Hanzo and Tassadar, with Cris also playing the hero fairly well. This mixed approach seemed to help lend some confusion to the draft and made them harder to predict.As for Diamond Skin, they tried to heat things up with nande on Blaze, but struggled and ultimately ended up with no wins on the hero. They saw greater success after cracking out the more standard E.T.C + Hanzo combo.If Diamond Skin and Zealots want to stay in the conversation for the coveted international tourney slots, they'll have to keep this momentum going, and they'll have a second chance to prove themselves against even tougher opponents! Zealots faces off against Method next week, and Diamond Skin faces Fnatic.In only two weeks of games, we've come to this already. There has been much debate about the strength of these two teams, since both emerged from a Crucible position. Many believed that LFM would be stuck in an uncontested 8th place spot, and there were some who felt that after HHE's first series against Tempo Storm that they might share a similar fate at the bottom. Yet over the weekend, both of these teams showed off the results of their hard work and preparation. LFM came in and defeated GFE 3-2, whereas HHE crushed Spacestation Gaming 3-0, both on the same day. This has shaken up the rankings and pushed both of these teams above their opponents into the 5th and 6th place slots.The big game-changer for LFM was Drated's Hanzo play. He brought some key stuns that gave LFM the advantage in fights just when they needed it.On the HHE side, I have to give props to Mcintyre this week. Almost as if he read my previous article discussing his generally thin hero pool in last week's play, Mcintyre decided "You want more heroes? Fine, have ALL the heroes!". His hero pool has now expanded to 7 different heroes from its previous 1, and while not all of them were successful, this diversity helped bring some degree of unpredictability to the HHE draft, which served them well.HHE and LFM may have earned their places in 5th and 6th respectively, but they'll have to defend it next week! LFM faces a tough match in Team Freedom next week, and HHE faces Team Twelve.Well, apparently for now at least, it's Team Freedom....but only just barely. Let's be clear, Tempo did a great deal of experimentation in this game, and still played a tight 3-2 series. If they had stuck to more standardized drafts, it's entirely possible the results would have been reversed.Freedom owes a good deal of credit to Killuzion (KzN) in my opinion for his insane flexibility in the healer position. To date, he's run 6 different healers in only two weeks. That's absolutely insane and shows a lot of range as far as what he's capable of, so while he might not be making flashy plays, he's certainly able to pick a support that best fits whatever his team wants to run, which has to be a huge boon in the draft.Team Freedom will try to hold their spot in first against LFM Esports, whereas Tempo Storm will have to face two teams: Simplicity and Spacestation Gaming.All of this year's teams in Europe and North America are fighting their hardest to earn a spot among the top. While we have an early glimpse at who might be the best, there's no way of knowing what sort of chaos might shake up the roster in the weeks to come. Here are some games that I think you ought to pay attention to for next week!(Friday, 2/2 @ 2 PM EST)(Saturday, 2/3 @ 12 PM EST)(Sunday, 2/4 @ 12 PM EST)With things in chaos in EU, these three games will help differentiate the top of the pack from the mid-tier!(Friday, 2/2 @ 7 PM EST)(Saturday, 2/3 @ 5 PM EST)Gale Force tries to bounce back from a rough series against LFM and reassert its strength in the region against a pair of teams just as eager to recover from their own tough games!(Sunday, 2/4 @ 7 PM EST)(Friday, 2/2 @ 5 PM EST)HHE faces off against yet another tough opponent. They've clearly grown in only two short weeks, but will it be enough to take on Team Twelve? Meanwhile, LFM Esports also seeks to show off how much they've grown in the last two weeks, but their opponent is the currently undefeated Freedom. Can they possibly hope to topple such giants?Whew! Like I said, lots of data to go through, but this is my take on this week's action. That's all for this week. Please feel free to leave your comments on this week's HGC matches below, or on Reddit. I would also love to hear your feedback on this article and whether or not there are any aspects of the article that you'd like to see improvement on. I'd love to hear your feedback!