Do you have your shovels ready yet? If you do, you might not be using them as much as you did last year.

Although the weather was summer-like earlier this week, it's also mid-October, which means it's that time of the year where Central New Yorkers begin preparing for winter. However, due to the possibility of 2018 being an El Niño year, this year's winter might not be the traditional snow-heavy season the Syracuse area is used to. El Niño technically means "little boy" in Spanish, but this refers more to the time of year the weather event develops in December than it does to the weather changes it causes.

According to the National Ocean Service, an El Niño is a large-scale interaction between the ocean and atmosphere that can develop due to the waters in areas in the Pacific Ocean being warmer than usual. Although this weather event affects much of the world, the effects it has on the Northwest will be what we notice here in Central New York if the El Niño develops. If it does develop, the Syracuse area can expect a milder and less snowy winter. This would mean less shoveling, but it also would mean less chances for enjoying the snow through activities like skiing, sledding, and snowmobiling.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 70% chance of an El Niño developing by the end of 2018, as of September 10. However, the organization also mentions seeing a strong El Niño appears to be unlikely, but it is difficult to predict the intensity of the event. An El Niño does not just affect the average winter weather; it also increases the chances of having storms late in winter. An example of these storms is the 1998 ice storm that devastated some areas in Central New York; and the El Niño from 1997 to 1998 is considered to be the strongest of the 20thCentury by the WMO.

Although no organization is completely certain an El Niño will develop this year, it is still something to be mindful of as we head into the winter months here in the Syracuse area. If you live in Central New York, be sure to keep an eye on the sky and stay tuned to the weather forecast – this winter could be an unpredictable one.