THE capital is now under siege from the waters slithering down from the north towards the Gulf of Thailand. Shops, businesses and government offices in Bangkok cower behind makeshift concrete parapets and piles of sandbags. Bridges and elevated expressways are filling up with fleets of parked cars, to spare them from the deluge below. And all the time people speculate about just how bad it might get in a city the Europeans once called the Venice of Asia.

Despite the defences, there is likely to be some flooding. The government desperately wants to divert water around the capital, to east and west, but the volume is too great. The desire to save densely populated Bangkok is understandable. But the strategy is angering those in the northern suburbs, where neighbourhoods are filling up with water as the sluice gates remain closed. An admirable steadfastness among Thai people is wearing thin.

Even if much of central Bangkok is spared, the flooding has had a dramatic enough impact already. Over 400 people have died and about 1.6m hectares (4m acres) are now under water. South-East Asia's second-largest economy has been battered. So, too, has the reputation of the new government under Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, elected in a landslide just four months ago.

The economic consequences could persist for months, if not years. Take the experience of one midsized textile manufacturer, representative of many sodden local businesses. The owner employs about 2,000 people at two factories. One factory has been overwhelmed by water almost 1.5 metres (4 feet) deep. The other is now under threat. The employees from the first had to be evacuated, although about 100 have stayed behind to look after what is left as best they can. They live in the factory's dormitory, and survive on food deliveries brought in by boat.

The owner estimates that if the factory remains under water for a full month, it could take two months more to clean up. But so badly has his supply chain been affected that it will take a further three months before he ships out his first end-product again, ie, next April—a loss of about half a year's production. He is insured for damage to his property, but not for his loss of earnings. The latest estimate of the total flood damage, from the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce, is $17 billion. The central bank has slashed its forecast for economic growth this year from 4.1% to 2.6%.

Thailand is an attractive destination for overseas investment, and foreign companies, particularly Japanese ones fleeing a strong yen, have been badly disrupted. A quarter of Japan's 2,000 manufacturers in Thailand, located in the vast industrial estates north of Bangkok, have been hit by the floods. Divers have been used to salvage valuable equipment from submerged plants.

For some, the consequences have been severe. Honda's main car plant at Ayutthaya, north of Bangkok, has been shut since October 4th. Normally 6,000 workers churn out 240,000 cars a year, a twentieth of Honda's global output. The company is not sure when the factory will reopen. It has withdrawn its earnings guidance for the year, admitting that it was in a “really tough spot”. Toyota and Mitsubishi have also been affected. Canon says that the Thai floods may cut annual sales, mainly of printers and cameras, by ¥50 billion ($690m).

Perhaps Thailand's longer-term prospects are not so bad. If foreign manufacturers move their plants, it will probably be to drier places in Thailand. The impact on the government is another matter. No one blames Ms Yingluck for the lapses in planning and water management that exacerbated this fiasco, let alone an unholy slew of rain this year. But her critics say she should have better co-ordinated the response. Little was done to force provincial governors to work out a common strategy. The prime minister and the governor of Bangkok have even rowed in public over which of them has authority to open particular sluice gates. Not a glorious start to Ms Yingluck's term in office, and it is unclear that people's memories of it will recede with the floodwaters.