COVID-19 cases could peak in Henderson County as far off as mid-May to early June, according to President and CEO of Pardee UNC Health Care Jay Kirby, adding that locally we are just now seeing “the outer bands of a hurricane.”

He shared his opinions based on recent models and data to the Henderson County Board of Commissioners Friday.

“Today I am not here to lead, guide or direct your governance, what I am here today is to tell you what Pardee hospital, its frontline nurses and its medical staff are up against,” Kirby said.

He explained that the data he is receiving from medical experts is alarming.

“In the next two to three weeks we are prepared, and we hope we are wrong, for over 500 hospitalizations in Henderson County,” Kirby said, adding that 250 of those will possibly need ventilators.

Kirby said he is relying on the experts for the data, which shows that 15% of COVID-19 patients require hospitalization, 45% of whom will require a ventilator.

He asked for community support from across the board for those that are “going to run to this.”

“Police officers run to gunfire, our firefighters to fire, and our soldiers run to war, and Pardee will run to this head on, but I need your help,” Kirby said. “I need PPE (personal protective equipment) so when they run to this fire we have the masks, goggles, gloves, and the gowns for them to feel safe and secure caring for the most critical.”

Kirby said he also needs additional ventilators, as Pardee currently has 18.

“That is woefully under what we need,” Kirby said, adding that is true for all hospitals in North Carolina.

“The United States of America has less ventilators than what will be required; that is true to Western North Carolina and that is true of Henderson County. So we’ve got two to three weeks and you’re going to see changes at the hospital.”

AdventHealth recently received a shipment of ventilators and now has 15, with more ordered, according to Director of Communications Victoria Dunkle.

Kirby estimated that Mission Hospital in Asheville has around 100.

Kirby noted that around five patients at Pardee were on ventilators Thursday, but none were COVID-19 patients.

He emphasized the importance of remembering even when hospitals become overloaded with COVID-19 patients, there will still be “sprained ankles and kidney stones” to deal with on top of everything else.

Commissioner Charlie Messer asked about reports that some ventilators can now have more than one person hooked up to it at a time. Kirby said that ability is not currently an option at Pardee, and is not widely available to most hospitals.

Approximately 340 tests for COVID-19 had been administered in Henderson County as of 9 a.m. Friday morning. Of that number, eight had tested positive as of Friday, and Kirby expects that number to tick up to 15-20 by next week.

Roughly 140 tests are still pending results.

These tests were done either at the drive-thru tests sites previously offered by Pardee and AdventHealth and at the local health department.

As of Friday afternoon, the state has 763 confirmed cases of the virus in 60 counties.

Kirby pointed out that a reported 80% of people with COVID-19 are asymptomatic. “So there are many more of those folks out there that have this.”

The majority of testing is through LabCorp, and there is an eight-to nine-day delay for results. For patients experiencing symptoms in the hospital, results can come back through the University of North Carolina health system at a faster rate of one to two days.

The Pardee drive-thru test site at Blue Ridge Community College ran out of supplies for testing several days ago. Kirby said more have been ordered, but the demand right now is high.

Emergency rooms and intensive care units will be some of the ones hit the hardest when demand for treatment for COVID-19 increases.

Pardee is already moving staffing around to increase preparedness, which has meant cutting back on primary and urgent care services.