It probably comes to no surprise that the top two most consumed beverages in the world are tea and coffee, respectively. Growth prospects for both beverages show positive trends with dominant growth occurring in the Asia-Pacific regions. Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) are projected to be around 6–7% for tea and coffee from 2018 to 2024. Currently, China is the number one tea producing country, while Brazil is the number one coffee producing country in the world. In this article, only the Arabica type of coffee plant will be discussed as opposed to Robusta (a lesser quality type, and thus cheaper to grow), which is most commonly used for instant coffee mixes.

Climate, Geography, and Production

Figure 1

There is a remarkable similarity in the environments for which tea and coffee are able to grow and produce their optimal flavors. It is the subtropical regions, between the Tropic of Cancer and Capricorn, where coffee thrives for multiple reasons. Coffee plants need average temperatures between 15–24ºC (59–75ºF), and any moment of frost can kill the entire coffee plant and even decrease production for years following, like in Brazil, 1975. While the tea plant’s optimal annual mean temperature for growing sits right in the middle of this range, the tea plant can survive a light frost. On the contrary, if temperatures rise above this sensitive range for coffee or tea plants, then photosynthesis can become slower. Rainfall is very important for both plants as well, with coffee and tea both needing 1500mm–2500mm of rain in a year. With tropical and subtropical climates also comes high humidity, which tea and coffee plants love (70-90% during the growing season). Since water is able to hold heat better than most natural substances, the temperature in regions with dense fogs and/or located near large bodies of water can be moderated to quite desirable effect. Altitude also has a large, beneficial effects on the growth of coffee, its flavors, and even marketing.

The world’s highest rated teas and coffees come from regions between 1000m–2500m (3280ft-8200ft). Within subtropical regions, the high elevation provides excellent draining on the hillsides while providing consistently misty air. Orographic lift provides the explanation as to how this high elevation climate forms in the first place. As far as the coffee bean is concerned, the higher the altitude, the more dense the bean grows. The higher density of the bean results in more acidity, producing an overall better flavor and aroma in many respects. Nonetheless, coffee and tea are quite sensitive to climate as will become more apparent later.

Taiwan

What makes Taiwan so special? It would seem a bit pointless to be comparing tea growing climates with that of the coffee plant’s without some sort of further connection. Well, Mainland China and Taiwan happen to produce world class teas, with Mainland China being the largest tea producer in the world. With growing environment conditions as similar as they are, there doesn’t seem to be much of a reason not to grow coffee here as well. Coffee consumption has been growing strongly in the past decade, and what was once only a western beverage culture is now bleeding into the East. In addition to numerous bubble tea vendors, specialty coffee boutiques continue popping up in China and Taiwan. Presently, Taiwan relies on imports to fuel its internal coffee consumption, since current production only meets 15% of total demand. So, only a small portion of this specialty coffee makes it out of the country, which currently represents the larger market for coffee consumption. There is one particular region of Taiwan that shows great promise as a new coffee “mecca”, with potential to rival countries such as Jamaica, Ethiopia, and Guatemala in terms of quality (but certainly not in production size). It is the clean air of a mountainous region known as “Alishan” that draws attention due to the high elevation (2000m-2500m) and ideal climate. Alishan is already a huge name in the tea world, producing the most famous oolong (wulong) tea in the world, which some describe as the “champagne of tea”. For all the information you could imagine on what makes Alishan tea special, I encourage you to visit this page by Nick Kembel.

So, if Alishan is able to grow such a pristine tea, then it should equally be able to grow coffee plants. First, let’s look at some climate-related numbers for the Alishan, Taiwan region. Remember, temperatures between 59–75ºF are ideal for coffee plants. Average monthly temperatures sourced from NOAA show the following (year range unknown, since Google is not specific and NOAA’s websites are… not too great):

NOAA

Not bad at all, just a little on the cold side during the winter months. Importantly, there is another feature, day/night temperatures difference, that makes this high mountain region very suitable for growing tea and coffee.

Both, tea and coffee, plants have a direct relationship between extremes of day and nighttime temperatures and coffee [and tea] quality.

During the daytime, the plant will receive sunshine and carry out photosynthesis, which produces the organic substances that ultimately give the tea or coffee its flavor. During the nighttime at high altitudes, the temperatures can reach a very cold (but not freezing) temperature that slows the plant’s metabolic process, preventing it from consuming energy (the organic substances).

Now let’s look at average rainfall:

Adding these numbers up, gives an average annual rainfall of 2,218mm. This falls within the established 1500mm-2500mm range, though a little on the high side with monthly variances (ex. typhoons) around 500mm. Even with higher rainfall, the very effective natural irrigation of Alishan’s terrain makes this less of an issue.

Challenges

There are a few challenges with the Alishan region when it comes to harvesting teas or coffees. First, this land has areas owned by the Tsou indigenous people who wish to protect the environment. Protecting the environment in which high mountain teas exist is a huge discussion topic in and of itself because of deforestation and erosion. However, there are certainly instances where the Tsou people have either taken part in tea growing themselves or are involved in a partnership involving the promotion of their culture and resulting in some economic stability. Coffee farming has the potential to have this same exact type of relationship with the aboriginal tribes (like in 2012). The other concern is high labor costs in this region, as it is difficult to work in. However, competing with top international brands and their volume should not be the goal for local farmers here. It is the sheer quality and traceability that gives Taiwan tea (and soon coffee) its advantage in the market. Not to mention the added benefit of hand-picked leafs in these smaller farms; this same attention to detail in harvesting can extend to coffee as well regarding the removal of unripe, insect-infected, or moldy beans. Even Jamaican Blue Mountain coffee can contain “up to 30% bad beans,” so delivering a supreme quality followed by smart marketing can give “Made in Taiwan” coffee beans its pedestal.

Climate Challenges

With coffee being so sensitive to climate, rising temperatures are already causing shifts in the “Coffee Belt” seen in Figure 1 earlier. In fact, temperatures in this region have been increasing on average 0.16ºC per decade, which correlates to an average shift of 46km per decade. Therefore, the coffee-growing regions will become farther away from the equator as time passes. Given this trend, temperatures in the coffee belt are expected to rise by 2.1ºC by 2050. Because temperature has such a dramatic effect on the coffee plant (fungus growth, pest outbreaks, etc.), suitable regions for growing could decrease by 56% for Arabica type coffee. If you hone in on one particular coffee growing region in Colombia, then (using increased spatial resolution) calculations show the effects can actually be even more severe than current Global Climate Models (GCMs).

Focusing on Coffee Belt, including Colombian-growing regions

Details on how the map was formed are explained in Columbia University’s The Earth Institute paper from 2016 titled, “The impacts of climate change on coffee: trouble brewing”. Basically, almost all of the coffee growing regions between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn show decreases in production potential, while areas along these bounds show increases in suitability.

The paper shows that Brazil presents the largest loss of suitable growing regions, however it also has the most gain in new regions becoming suitable. The report then goes on to say that while

Taiwan equally “loses its entire allotment of suitable areas (of which it is currently using none), it also shows the largest percentage increase in suitable regions, gaining 50% more than it loses.”

Conclusions

At the present, Taiwanese coffees seem to remain at a hefty price due to super small-scale private plantations as well as higher labor costs compared to the other big coffee-growing economies. For this reason, Taiwan coffee must maintain a supreme quality for consumers in order to gain higher profits. A cup of sweet, floral, light-medium roasted Alishan coffee is quite possibly a sleeping dragon to the rest of the world. Moreover, it appears one Taiwan tea seller known as, “Mountain Stream Teas,” has discovered the idea of selling coffee from the same Taiwan farms they source their tea from. For his new launch into coffee, owner, Matt, says the first round of tasting comparisons will be sent out for the February subscription service box. In his latest email newsletter, Matt says,

“The winter months in Taiwan are traditionally the down time for most tea farmers but we have more than a couple partner farms that are starting to change that. The winter months are also the harvest season for coffee in Taiwan and we are excited to show the world what Taiwanese coffee is all about and bring tea along for the ride.”