According to some forecasts, the 2016 Padres will struggle to win as many games as last year’s incarnation, a flashy outfit that faded to 74-88. The projections look even more grim in light of what San Diego has declined to do: tear down and start over.

Many in baseball nonetheless have labeled the Padres rebuilders, seeing no alternative for a path to eventual contention. Now minus Justin Upton , Craig Kimbrel , Ian Kennedy and Joaquin Benoit , a team that’s welcomed a 34-year-old shortstop and 38-year-old closer as its top free-agent additions has raised little buzz and big questions.

Two weeks before pitchers and catchers report for spring training , the Union-Tribune approached the Padres’ owners and top executives about their vision for the upcoming season and beyond. While their replies might be perceived as posturing in an All-Star year — and they continue to maintain that hosting the Midsummer Classic has no bearing on their strategy — their words were presented in no uncertain terms.

If the Padres won’t call this a rebuild, what do they expect in 2016?

“Significant improvement,” said executive chairman Ron Fowler. “We underperformed last year. Our goal is to overperform this year.”

“For us, 2015 was just a step in the process,” said president and CEO Mike Dee. “It was part of a journey, part of the plan. 2016 brings a next step with a new manager and a team we think is going to compete.”

“We’re looking to field a team that’s competitive in the short- and long-term,” said general manager A.J. Preller. “I think the biggest thing is you want to continue to grow, and on the big-league side, it’s going to be fun to watch (manager) Andy Green this season putting players on the field and getting them in position to play better.”

Said lead investor Peter Seidler: “We’re going to try to be in the playoffs this year, and that’s going to be from day one.”

Offseason subtractions, additions Key departures RHP: Joaquin Benoit, Josh Johnson , Shawn Kelley , Casey Kelly, Ian Kennedy, Craig Kimbrel, Bud Norris

, , Casey Kelly, Ian Kennedy, Craig Kimbrel, LHP: Cory Luebke , Marc Rzepczynski

, 1B: Yonder Alonso

2B: Jedd Gyorko

SS: Clint Barmes

3B: Will Middlebrooks

LF: Justin Upton Key arrivals RHP: Fernando Rodney , Carlos Villanueva

, LHP: Drew Pomeranz

C: Christian Bethancourt

SS: Alexei Ramirez

IF: Jose Pirela

OF: Jon Jay

Across the industry, such statements have been met with skepticism.

Following the initial thrill and subsequent letdown of 2015, the Padres traded their top relief arms in Kimbrel and Benoit, drawing praise for the return: a haul of prospects that resembled the beginning of a methodical rebuild. In early December, first baseman Yonder Alonso and second baseman Jedd Gyorko were dealt away in favor of younger, more athletic options in Wil Myers and Cory Spangenberg .

Then Preller acquired a quartet of Rule 5 players and added Christian Bethancourt to a backstop picture already occupied by Derek Norris and Austin Hedges. The last 30 days have featured the signings of right-hander Carlos Villanueva and shortstop Alexei Ramirez to one-year deals that addressed needs without sacrificing flexibility.

What remain are concerns about left field, the back of the rotation and virtually the entire bullpen. More than half of the payroll is devoted to 30-and-over veterans Matt Kemp, James Shields and Melvin Upton Jr. And even as the value of pitching has hit the stratosphere, starters Shields, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner all remain in Padres uniforms.

Meanwhile, the division heavyweights in Los Angeles and San Francisco apparently have company in Zack Greinke’s Diamondbacks.

Yet, reasons exist for cautious optimism, reasons the Padres view as more than sufficient to justify their current course. Among the arguments: The defense can’t be worse than it was last year, the rotation could rebound from massive disappointment, the energetic Green and his staff may provide the spark that was missing.

“We feel like there are additions we made that may not generate the news they did the year before,” Preller said, “but we feel like these are guys who are going to be a fit and complement the roster. That’s been more the focus of the club this offseason.”

There has been another focus, one vital to any organization looking to punch above its weight class.

“We’re strengthening our minor league system, bringing in waves of talent,” Dee said. “But that doesn’t come at the expense of trying to compete at the major league level.

“When we hired A.J., those two objectives didn’t need to be an either/or proposition. We wanted to compete and also build a strong farm system. It’s parallel tracks.”

While payroll currently hovers around $101 million — under last year’s opening-day record of $108 million — the Padres hold six of the top 85 selections in the June draft and a bonus pool projected to approach $13 million. In 2015, San Diego sacrificed its first-round pick to sign Shields and worked with a bonus pool of less than $4 million.

July 2 may bring an even larger expenditure, as the Padres are widely expected to be one of the biggest players in the upcoming international signing period. Preller built a reputation as one of the game’s most zealous scouts overseas, and sources indicate he has been given the resources to fully test that reputation in the Latin American market. Besides the number of rival clubs scheduled to be sidelined by international spending restrictions, the Padres may be motivated to act ahead of the next collective bargaining agreement.

“Those are huge deals of us,” Seidler said of the imminent first-year player draft and international class. “What we feel strategically is, money spent on amateur draft signings is money well spent. It’s basically going to be almost certainly less than what Ian Kennedy gets for one year (Kennedy turned down a $15.8 million qualifying offer from the Padres and signed a five-year, $70 million deal with Kansas City). ... If we get back out of this draft two players that go through our system and become All-Stars, obviously it’s money well spent.”

Of course, no one need remind the Padres of their dismal history of drafting and developing homegrown talent. With a new coaching staff and the front office settling into place, the club’s owners say they are prepared to commit the capital required to buck past fruitless trends.

“It’s a delicate balance between present money and investment for the future, but we’re looking to have waves of talent coming in,” Fowler said, echoing what has become a common refrain. “In order to do that, you have to have currency — money and players who can be traded. We’re looking to have that ability for an extended period of time.”

“It’s clear for the first time since we bought the team (in 2012) it’s really the core of people that we brought in,” Seidler said. “I love what’s going on. I think our No. 1 priority is to build a great baseball organization. And A.J. Preller did not inherit a great baseball organization. He inherited one that was good in some areas. I think, one step at a time — and it’s only been a year-and-a-half for him — he’s putting building blocks in place for us to be great consistently.”

The Padres do not believe that pursuit should detract significantly from the major league product, even as national pundits have warned what can happen to small-to-mid-market teams caught between rebuilding and contending. San Diego has been held up as a primary example, going back to July’s surprising lack of deals.

“I don’t think that’s accurate,” Preller said of the characterization of a franchise stuck in the middle. “There’s always a time and a place to make deals. It’s not as easy as saying, hey, we should’ve traded everyone at the trade deadline. Whether it’s adding or moving players, you’re trying to get value. Last year, we obviously made the decision at the deadline, for example, that moving Kimbrel was something we didn’t want to do. We didn’t want to break up the club, and we didn’t get the value we wanted.

“This year, we got value (for Kimbrel) we think is going to play. With Ian Kennedy, we knew at the end of the day we wanted to get a chance to compete and turn that into a draft pick. That’s more valuable than anything we were offered at the time.

“You’re constantly drawing up scenarios about what’s the best path to take. A lot of that depends on the market, other conversations with teams. One thing we agreed on as a group is it’s not healthy to label things like we have to do this or we have to do that.”

While one ill-timed injury can stagger an entire operation, Dee noted that by 2018, San Diego’s significant salary obligations may be to Kemp alone. (Shields, who is signed through that year, has the option to opt out after 2016.)

“To me, priority No. 1 for the baseball organization is developing and getting high-impact players,” Seidler said. “But I think at the major league level, things can change quickly if you’re not in rebuilding mode. ... Baseball is so fluid. At any point, we’re liable to make moves.”

Call it rhetoric if you’d like. A year ago, the Padres’ attempt at bottling lightning tantalized a fan base. Now, they have little to gain from a public retreat.

Or maybe call it genuine competitiveness.

“I don’t think the term ‘rebuild’ fits what we’re doing at all,” Fowler said. “I’m 71 years old. I’m not looking to have a situation like that for five years.”

Fowler and Seidler both agreed that, if it were up to them, the next CBA will discourage teams from aiming for high draft picks over wins.

In the meantime, the Padres prefer to see the upside in current projections.

“We should be picked fourth,” Seidler said. “That’s probably where we should be picked. But every year, there’s two or three teams picked there that make it.”