Have no fear, African dust helping to prevent hurricanes from forming

Sara Marino | Treasure Coast Newspapers

Show Caption Hide Caption What to know about Saharan Dust in the air Saharan Dust has booked a one-way ticket to respiratory systems across South Texas as it makes landfall.

Residents worried about the likelihood of hurricanes this summer can expect some help from an unlikely source: African dust.

The dust, which is visible as a light fog, is created in the Sahara Desert in late spring and early summer and travels through strong winds to the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf Coast, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

More: Scattered to numerous showers expected this afternoon, evening

Once African dust blows over the water, it creates dry air, and that halts tropical storms from progressing.

The African dust occurs most years, with the majority of the dust over the open water of the eastern and central Atlantic Ocean, said Dan Pydynowski, a senior meteorologist for AccuWeather, a private weather forecasting company in State College, Pennsylvania.

"As tropical waves come off the west coast of Africa, they'll develop in (the central and eastern Atlantic), and the dust has a lot of dry air associated with it and that inhibits tropical development," he said.

"We've been seeing a lot of that over the last week or two."

Paul Walker, a senior meteorologist for AccuWeather, said there's been more dust in the eastern Atlantic Ocean recently.

Pydynowski said the dust comes and goes throughout the summer and makes the days hot and dry.

"It also makes for more colorful sunrises and sunsets, with the dust and the haze in the atmosphere," he said.

More: Strong thunderstorms impacting several Treasure Coast locations

Pydynowski said the dust isn't harmful to the average person, but might affect people with asthma or other respiratory conditions.

According to NOAA, every year, more than 100 million tons of the dust flies across the Atlantic Ocean.

Pydynowski said it's hard to tell when the next influx of dust will blow through Florida because it happens sporadically. However, the most common times of the year to see the dust are June to early August.

Walker said before a hurricane occurs, less dust will be found over the waterways.

What's next?

While the tropics have been quiet in July, perhaps thanks to the African dust, the rest of the hurricane season is expected to be quieter than normal, top forecasters have said.

Colorado State University scientists updated their forecast earlier this month to predict 10 named storms, four of which will become hurricanes. In April, they predicted seven hurricanes.

NOAA's 2018 Atlantic hurricane season outlook Dr. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, and the rest of his team NOAA, are predicting an 75 percent chance that the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will either be near-normal or above normal.

They said their expectation of below-average activity this year is because the Atlantic water temperature is colder than normal, and hurricanes need warm ocean water to develop and strengthen. Also, the odds of an El Niño developing in the next several months have increased.

El Niño is a natural warming of tropical Pacific Ocean water, which tends to suppress the development of Atlantic hurricanes. During an El Niño, strong winds blow across the Caribbean and Atlantic, tearing apart developing tropical storms.

More: 2018 hurricane season may not be so busy afterall

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The Climate Prediction Center gave a 65 percent chance of an El Niño forming in fall and 70 percent during winter.

The National Weather Service has a more conservative outlook for hurricane season.

Jerry Combs, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, said the agency forecasts 10 to 16 named storms, of which five to nine will be hurricanes.

Weekend outlook

For the next several days, the weather appears to be much the same as it has been: temperatures hovering around 90 degrees and a 30 to 40 percent daily chance of afternoon showers.

More: Check our weather page for forecasts

No tropical storm formation is expected in the north Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico for at least the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The agency does not forecast past five days.