China is pushing outward. The country has made steady moves to reclaim its role as the pre-eminent power in the Pacific Rim. This expansion, however, differs from those made at any other time in its history. For most of China's existence, it was a continental power endowed with sufficient resources with an economy driven by self-contained markets. External trade was a factor but moved mostly by land, primarily via the Silk Road. Sea trade also did occur, but China's coast was generally a liability — a point of incursion to protect from raiders and hostile powers. China was not compelled to explore the seas and seek new lands.

Until recently, modern China hewed to this pattern. This began to change by the late 1990s, when China's economic boom started to strain domestic resources. At the turn of the century, imports of key commodities began to outstrip domestic production, exports ballooned and China became reliant on maritime transport. The very success of China's economic growth brought new vulnerabilities.

Because the United States maintains effective control of the world's oceans, this is a difficult move for China. Beijing has opted for a two-pronged strategy: diversifying away from sea routes with its Belt and Road Initiative and building up its naval strength, capacity and reach. But the push to solidify its claims to maritime territory is upsetting the balance of power in the Pacific Rim and challenging a pillar of the U.S.-centric world order: freedom of navigation.

Many Waters

China's reorientation toward the sea is particularly disruptive given Asia's geopolitics. Although Europe and Asia share the Eurasian landmass, their geopolitics differ fundamentally. Europe, a continent crowded with nations vying for space, is defined by land borders that ebb and flow like the tides. East Asia, by contrast, is defined by the sea and ringed by populous coasts, a space defined by maritime transit and resources. The sea serves as both the barrier and the pathway between the mainland and the archipelago. Europe's land borders might be contentious, but they can at least be clearly delineated. Maritime borders are ephemeral and subject to diverse concepts of use and passage.

What has emerged is a rising sense of competition and even potential conflict in the South and East China seas, driven by fear of losing control of key supply lines, competing maritime territorial claims, differing interpretations of maritime agreements, and competition for resources in these seas themselves. Much has been said about competition over sub-sea mineral resources, from claims of vast potential reserves of oil and natural gas to seabed methane and ocean mining. Although oil and natural gas reserves are actively exploited around the periphery of these seas, little significant exploration has been done in much of the contested areas, and assertions of a "second Arabian Gulf" are greatly exaggerated.

But there is one very real and actively exploited resource in those waters that is often overlooked: fish and other marine foodstuffs. Clashes over fishing grounds are frequent, volatile and mostly out of the control of the various regional governments. Given the size of the seas, maritime patrols are infrequent. The absence of strong regulation or enforcement allows room for gray areas to be exploited and territorial waters to be violated. Poor regulation and enforcement of boundaries make the security situation even more opaque and complex. Fishermen are both exploited by and exploit nationalist government sentiments and willfully push the boundaries of fisheries. As with the agricultural sector, the fishing industry and its countless small-scale producers, can have a disproportionate effect on political decision-making.

Feeding Asian Growth

In Asia, fish and other marine foodstuffs play a greater role in diets than in the West. Seafood production is an important source of employment and a vital component of national economies. Asian fisheries make up half the global total capture production, and six of the top 10 producers of marine products are in Asia.