NEW DELHI: India’s vast but underground satta market , which sees heavy election betting, is as of now projecting the Bharatiya Janata Partyled NDA as falling short of a majority in Bihar and the Nitish Kumar-Lalu Prasad alliance getting a narrow majority.But the market is also saying it is waiting for the fourth phase of Bihar polls , slated for November 1, for another assessment.ET spoke to a number of big players in the satta market, who take bets and calculate the odds. They spoke on the condition they not be identified. For Bihar’s 243-seat assembly, Friday’s bets were being offered with a projected tally of 110 for BJP-led NDA, with BJP’s own tally projected at 94.NDA falls short of a majority (122 seats) in this projection. And this is a sharp drop from the early-middle October projections by the satta market – a comfortable majority of 150 seats for NDA, and 108 for BJP.Correspondingly, projections for the Nitish-Lalu alliance have shifted from below 100 in October to 127-129 currently. Interestingly, the satta market is giving Lalu Prasad ’s RJD more weight in the overall alliance tally. The close contest that’s Bihar polls has been reflected in the see-saw projections of the satta market. When bets were being taken first, BJP-led NDA were clear favourites.After the first two phases of Bihar polls, the satta market gave the Nitish-Lalu alliance 145 seats. But after the third phase, the satta market reckoned BJP has recovered some ground but not enough and it scaled down the alliance’s seats to below 130, but still giving it a majority, albeit a narrow one.Market participants say the fourth phase of Bihar polls is crucial if odds are to change in favour of BJP. The fourth phase is scheduled for November 1. BJP leaders have said the party doesn’t expect much from the fifth phase, on November 5. Results are to be announced on November 8. The party with pretty much unchanged fortunes in satta market projections is Congress – it started with projections in single digits and the satta market reckons it’s still stuck there.