из фейсбука, в аналогичной дискуссии: I think that: 1) There are no reliable models, here the skeptics are right, and serious people don't claim this (e.g., IPCC prediction for different scenarios include a lot of uncertainty, as it is clear from their graph, where prediction error is shown). 2) On the other hand, one can say for sure that the human influence _can_ be significant, it is not something obviously irrelevant. (E.g., production of CO_2 is a small percentage of the existing cycle, but it accumulates and it is quite possible that the new equilibrium is much bigger even if the production will not increase.) 3) This uncertainty is often used as the argument against restriction measures, however, it is more a reason to be _more_ afraid. If you have more and more people in your house and hear some sounds like cracking, and do not understand what exactly is the danger of destroying the floor because of the uncertainty of models, the absence of good model is the reason to worry, not otherwise. 4) Economy and human civilization are even less predictable than climate, and one should understand that global warming is not the only (and may be not even the most serious) danger that puts the civilization at risk. 5) So the hysterical slogans "let us do just something" are as bad as the opposite "we don't know for sure, so let us do nothing", and of course missing school classes (especially math and physics ones) for manifestations does not look productive and increases both type of hysteria. 6) But some conservative measures that look simple and do not create new dangers, like some light economic pressure to limit the CO_2 emissions look reasonable. Here we have some experience of changing oil prices that are a good approximation to the consequences of this kind of pressure, and we know that this does not create a lot of troubles if the change is not very fast. On the other hand, keeping the resources for future generations is in general a good idea independent of the warming problems. 7) Finally, when looking at what people say, one should keep in mind that the rational strategy depends on age: the older the person is, the less (s)he has reasons to worry about what will happen in 2050. Still thinking about future is, I think, I good idea even it is not directly useful for some of us.