However, you’ll notice that when the team switched to a back 3, Robinson did just fine. The average pass difficulty he’s asked to attempt drops significantly and his performance against this xPass score improves and the xG per touch for and against improves with safer passing options on either side of him as well as more realistic buildup options altogether. As context, across the league, the outside CBs in a back 3 attempt more difficult passes than CBs in a back 4 pair, who attempt more difficult passes than a CB in the center position of a back 3. This is intuitive when you think about how roles and passing options shift between a back 4 and a back 3 in buildup.

You could imagine then how if Miles Robinson is a critical player for the team in 2019 (and he is, he is one of the few Atlanta players that reportedly actually received the financial commitment from the club he was looking for this offseason), de Boer might feel he can get the best out of him by hiding him deep inside the buildup machine of a back 3. I should note that Robinson is young still and appeared to improve in this capacity as the season went on and has looked better on the ball in the few preseason games I’ve seen so far this year (update: Oh no! He’s injured now!).

Leandro Gonzalez Pirez will surely be missed by Atlanta fans after three years of team success to accompany being one of the best center backs in the league. When Atlanta United successfully built out of the back in 2019 it was through him and mostly him alone. It’s easy to remember the painful giveaways and the overly optimistic forays forward, but when you’re shouldering your entire team’s ball progression from the back, these things will happen, especially when you’re having to pass to Brek Shea from time to time. With Gonzalez Pirez having transferred to Xolos, someone else on the back line will have to step up and fill LGP’s shoes. So far in preseason it looks like this might be Franco Escobar at the right center back position, who’s doing his best LGP “Libero” impression taking up aggressive positions in buildup, trying to spray balls around the field, going for a walkabout from time to time and generally yelling at everyone as the ball cycles around the way LGP did. Escobar also has this bonus ability where the team can easily transition to a 4-3-3 if he ever blacks out and wakes up high and wide on the right flank in possession, which happens from time to time.

In a back three I would expect possession to tilt from the left in 2019 over to the right in 2020 at the initial phases of buildup. If Escobar can find LGP’s vision and passing form but maintain greater ball security, it will be an unprecedented success. Conversely, if Atlanta plays in a back four, I expect buildup on the right to continue to be a problem given the manager’s footballing philosophy and what we know about Robinson early in his career, and Fernando Meza (more on this later on) will need to carry the load.

Question: Can Atlanta United’s Midfielders maintain possession, and successfully navigate it to the front three while also winning balls in defense?

The starting midfield spots are a question mark heading into 2020, but it appears at the moment that of Jeff Larentowicz (1,600 minutes in 2019), Eric Remedi (2,200), Emerson Hyndman (1,100), Mo Adams (100 minutes), and Matheus Rossetto (new arrival), we might see 2 of Larentowicz, Hyndman, and Rossetto start in a 3-4-3, or all three start in a 4-3-3 with Larentowciz the best ball winner, Hyndman the cleanest on the ball (see charts above), and Rossetto looking like a more dynamic and dangerous Hyndman in the limited minutes we’ve seen of him. Twice in a row Larentowicz and Hyndman have partnered in midfield and with varying degrees of success in preseason. They failed to truly dominate a USL team in Birmingham Legion and failed to get the better of a second division Mexican side in Leones Negros, and to be fair to them, it’s just a ton of space to cover off the ball, while also being the critical linking pieces in attack. I once made the case against Eric Remedi at defensive midfielder more generally but admit he brings a bit more mobility and forward thrust that you might need in a pair. Emerson Hyndman for his part is a much more attacking CM (almost a playmaker) and put up the third highest xG Chain per 96 on the team last year behind Josef and Pity Martinez.

In my estimation Larentowicz/Hyndman lacks the range and combined toughness to control a midfield on their own, Larentowicz/Remedi lacks the quality on the ball, and Hyndman/Rossetto lacks the steel; however, a midfield three of Larentowicz/Hyndman/Rossetto feels extremely right with plenty of quality, awareness, and enough dynamism and movement. The trouble of course is that if you play a midfield 3, the only way to get Barco/Pity/Josef all on the field together is to play a 4-3-3, which a) the team has played sparingly in preseason and b) has the center back distribution problem in Robinson that I highlighted above. You can plainly see the dilemma then.

Attackers, I’ll be brief

If you can’t make a front three of Ezequiel Barco, Pity Martinez, and Josef Martinez work then it’s on you as a manager. And to be clear, I think there are real risks that this won’t work. I’m a broken record, but not everyone can be on the ball all the time. You need multiple players stretching space and running into the box to create chaos, not just Josef Martinez. Both Barco and Pity prefer to stand on the ball and pick out these passes rather than make the sprints time and time again. Regardless, this one will be on de Boer. It’s solvable.

The Biggest Problem: What is going on with the squad depth?

After a year of ups and downs but ultimately a successful season, Atlanta United have returned only 55% (!?) of the team’s minutes from 2019, an overhaul on par with Orlando City’s 2019 offseason and only narrowly more stable than Vancouver in 2019 and Chicago Fire this year.