Tempo is Key.

Although fast pace, up-and-down basketball is something almost everyone enjoys watching, it’s not necessarily a winning strategy. Per kenpom, this only 5 out of the top 50 teams in adjusted tempo made the tournament. Out of these 5 teams, only one is left- the 50th ranked North Carolina Tarheels. North Carolina has proven to be one of the very few teams that can consistently win while playing fast-paced basketball. Over the last 10 years, only one champion has had a top 100 adjusted tempo rank- you guessed it, UNC. The next-fastest champ of the last 10 seasons? The 112-ranked Duke team of 2012.

This really hammers home the point that I’m trying to make, which is if you’re not Roy’s team, you probably aren’t going to win it all with a fast-breaking, run-and-gun team. Gonzaga is the outlying team here. Even though they have the 13th-best offense in the nation (per kenpom), they run at the 73rd highest adjusted tempo. Per hoop-math, the Zags also take 26.6% of their initial shots in transition, which is not a high figure compared to the other three remaining teams. So, while the bulldogs like to run, they don’t force shots in transition and they know when to slow it down and feed it to their bigs. Gonzaga has a good chance to break the mold of slow-paced champions by next Monday.

On the other hand, North Carolina is used to playing in transition. Joel Berry and Justin Jackson love to push it up the floor after getting an outlet pass. North Carolina’s great defensive rebounding numbers and 68th ranked steal percentage fit their transition offense perfectly. Using hoop-math again, UNC takes the highest percentage of its initial shot attempts in transition, at 31.1%.

Even Luke Maye’s game-winner (!) was produced by a quick transition after Kentucky scored. Credit to Theo Pinson here, who saw that UK was struggling to match up, and pushed the ball ahead. UNC has mastered the transition game, which is why they are still my favorite to win it all even with their unusually high tempo.

That leaves South Carolina and Oregon, the two slowest teams left in the tournament. Frank Martin relies hugely on its guards to break down defenders off the dribble and create offense on their own. They have the 104th rated offense, per kenpom, so it’s good for them that their way to win is to slow the game down. The ‘cocks have the 138th ranked tempo, right on par with the 10 year average tempo rank of champions, 165.2. The way South Carolina can beat Gonzaga is if they have another almost-perfect defensive showing, and can slow the game down completely and capitalize on open outside shots.

Oregon is way slower than everyone, even South Carolina, at 240th in the country in adjusted tempo. The fighting Ducks have the 16th most-efficient offense in division 1, and are currently on a tear, led by Tyler Dorsey, Mr. March himself. Even though point guard Payton Pritchard is a freshman, he knows beyond his years when to push the ball and when to slow it down. This mix of fast and slow offense and an inside-outside attack make the Ducks extremely dangerous, especially if Dorsey can keep shooting the ball at a ridiculous clip (34–51 from the field in the NCAA tournament).

Does Experience Matter?

According to kenpom, there is a total of 3 freshman who play more than 40% of possible minutes on a Final Four team- Zach Collins of Gonzaga, Payton Pritchard of Oregon, and Malik Kotsar of South Carolina. All 4 of these teams are full of experience, and lack the one-and-done talent of other powers in the country. The average experience of this year’s Final Four teams is 1.77 years, compared to the last 10 years champions’ average of 1.64 years, which is skewed towards the younger side by 2012 Kentucky (.77 years of experience) and 2015 Duke (1.06 years of experience). Both teams were full of freshman who left for the NBA shortly after. Outside of those two teams, the past champions have all been an experienced group of players. Last year’s Final Four was full of star seniors who lead their teams. Ryan Arcidiacono, Daniel Ochefu, Marcus Paige, Brice Johnson, Buddy Hield, and Michael Gbinje all played huge roles on their teams. The same is true for this year’s Final Four. Gonzaga has Przemek Karnowski, South Carolina has Sindarius Thornwell, Oregon has Dylan Ennis and a host of important juniors, and North Carolina has Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks.

North Carolina has the oldest team of the four, followed by the other 1 seed, the Zags. Oregon is close behind, and South Carolina is at an okay 1.56 years. Experience is clearly an important factor in winning it all, and North Carolina looks to have the slightest advantage in this category.

Free Throws Will be Very Important

Remember when Sindarius Thornwell scored 44 points in a quadruple overtime game? So do I. He also went 21–33 from the free throw line that game. Although that’s not a great percentage, he got to the line a LOT, which is an easy way of getting points when needed. Thornwell and South Carolina are an average team from the line, only shooting 69.9% this year, but they got to the line a lot. 23% of their total points were from the line, good for 24th in the country (per kenpom). In a grind-it-out, slow game, free throws are absolutely key to getting a win. Unfortunately for the ‘cocks, their opponent shoots free throws pretty well.

Gonzaga doesn’t get to the line a ton-only 19.8% of their points are free throws-but they capitalize when they are at the line. The Zags shoot 71.8% from the line, and have multiple players who shoot it well on the court at all times. All signs point to Gonzaga having an advantage in almost everything heading into this game.

In the primetime game, both teams are about even, as you can see above. A minor difference that could come up big, however, is that Oregon doesn’t start a player who shoots less than 69.8% from the line. UNC’s Kennedy Meeks shoots just 63.2% from the line, which could cause problems if the game slows down and becomes a slug fest, exactly what Carolina doesn’t want.

Who has the advantage?

Based on all statistics shown previously, and by almost all measures, Gonzaga has a big advantage over the Cinderella Gamecocks. My pick is Gonzaga in a close one, if Nigel Williams-Goss and the rest of the backcourt can be steady with the ball.

The second game is more of a toss-up. If UNC can get out and run, they could put this one away by the half, but Oregon is very solid at stopping transition offense. Both teams are very experienced, and both teams have great coaches who will figure out ways to keep this game close. I’m taking the Heels in a close one, and I think this could be a classic.

No matter what, this will be a very interesting Final Four, and I can’t wait to watch.