The United States has not helped matters. In response to Maduro’s tactics, in 2014 the Obama administration targeted Venezuela with economic sanctions and cajoled allies into doing the same. Donald Trump’s government has continued this policy. As Joy Gordon wrote in our pages in October, “U.S. sanctions have both worsened the crisis and made it harder for the Venezuelan government to turn the economy around.” The UN Human Rights Council has condemned them as “unilateral coercive measures” in violation of international law. Indeed, the imposition of sanctions looks less like a humanitarian effort to pressure a repressive government than a long-term strategy to undermine the country for ideological reasons—to oppose socialism in our hemisphere and to play power games with our international rivals who support Maduro. The latest round of sanctions is likely to further constrict the economy, inflame international tensions, and bring even more hardship to Venezuelans.

Nor does the team assembled to guide U.S. policy on Venezuela inspire confidence. Elliott Abrams, appointed special envoy in January, has a long history of interfering in Central and South America on behalf of the U.S. government, from securing weapons for a Guatemalan dictator to covering up a massacre of civilians by the Salvadoran military to soliciting funds for the Nicaraguan Contras. The hawkish National Security Adviser John Bolton, following a news conference on Venezuela sanctions, was caught on camera carrying a legal pad on which he had scrawled “5,000 troops to Colombia.” Bolton has bluntly declared that regime change in Venezuela makes for a good business opportunity: “It would make a difference if we could have American companies produce the oil in Venezuela. We both have a lot at stake here.” Republican Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has since the beginning of Trump’s presidency encouraged the administration to demand regime change, and in January 2018 tweeted a call to arms encouraging the Venezuelan military to overthrow Maduro. Trump himself has repeatedly asked what’s stopping the United States from toppling Maduro and has hinted at a “military option.” Such talk is reckless, and it further underscores the administration’s disinclination and inability to engage in skillful diplomacy just when it’s needed most. Many countries—including China, Turkey, and Iran—support Maduro. Russia is especially concerned with preserving Maduro’s presidency; the state-controlled oil company Rosnet has invested $7 billion in Venezuelan oil and stands to lose much if he falls.

Ideally, Maduro will yield to pressure at home and from abroad to call for new elections. The Venezuelan people deserve a just, democratically elected government responsive to their needs and protective of their rights. That government must be seen as legitimate. U.S.-backed regime change, especially if undertaken through military intervention, will guarantee the opposite. Though the United States likes to think of Central and South America as its backyard, it is better that Venezuela’s neighbor to the north refrain from offering the kind of “help” that could bring about an even worse crisis.

- February 6, 2019