The New South Wales cabinet will this week consider whether to restrict irrigators in the Barwon-Darling from accessing water during low-flow events, as the drought in the west of the state deepens.

A highly critical report by the independent NSW Natural Resources Commission a month ago described the Barwon-Darling as “an ecosystem in crisis” and warned that “the current cease-to-flow period is the longest since records began”.

The previous water minister, Niall Blair, brought forward the review of the system’s water-sharing plan after the fish kills at Menindee on the lower Darling last summer. More are expected this year.

The 2012 water-sharing rules were always controversial, amid allegations that late changes were made after heavy lobbying by the cotton industry.

The commission recommended action to address the extraction of water during critical low-flow periods as a matter of urgency.

Controversially, its draft report said the extraction by irrigators during these dry periods had pushed the lower Darling into hydrological drought three years earlier than under normal conditions.

The NRC identified new flow targets to protect critical ecosystems and improve river health – in particular, new rules for A-class licences (the most secure water rights) to prevent pumping when the river falls to a low level.

It also recommended dropping the rules that allow licence-holders to pump in anticipation of flows, and imposing greater protections for environmental flows. That will mean less water for irrigators during dry spells.

Guardian Australia understands the water minister, Melinda Pavey, proposes to adopt some of the recommendations, but not all. However, she will face stiff resistance from senior ministers with responsibility for the environment, who want to go further.

The NSW government has been warned by the Murray Darling Basin Authority that it expects the Barwon-Darling water sharing rules to be overhauled. In a communique last week it noted the NRC report, and said: “The authority reaffirmed its expectation that these critical reforms will be brought forward within the water resource plans that are to be submitted to the Authority by the end of the year. The Authority will not recommend water resource plans to the Minister for accreditation unless the commitments are fulfilled.”

Of the water licensed to be extracted from the Barwon Darling section of the river, 86% goes to the A-class licences, which are held by a handful of major cotton growers around Bourke. Those downstream – mainly graziers and Indigenous communities – are strongly backing the commission’s proposed rules.

Justin McClure, from Tilpa, is the president of the Australian Floodplain Association, which represents those groups. He said failure to heed the recommendations would be another nail in the coffin for the river and those who rely upon it.

“The science is abundantly clear. We need immediate action to give the Darling a fighting chance,” McClure said.

“The demise of many farming businesses and river communities and the erosion of Aboriginal culture will follow – all they way down to the Murray,” he said. “Minister Pavey’s role is to manage water equitably in the interests of all water users, not only irrigators.

“The AFA firmly believes that if the NRC’s recommendations are rejected it is difficult to see a future for anyone along the river.”

Meanwhile the deputy premier and Nationals leader, John Barilaro, has called for the government to abandon the planning process in NSW and build new dams urgently to address the drought.

“We need that line-in-the-sand moment where we stop everything and focus on what is our priority – and it must be water,” he told the Daily Telegraph.

“We need to not spend years consulting on the environmental impact and how communities feel about where we put dams. We need to get a bulldozer into the soil and build them. If we don’t ease the planning requirements nothing will get built for years and years and nothing is more urgent.”



