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Former NOAA, veteran meteorologist David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations predicts the coming 2018 hurricane season could be even worse than 2017’s already harsh season. The reason: natural cycles have the Atlantic in an active phase.

Image: NASA, public domain.

Last year Dilley predicted already in February that the southern tip of Florida would be hit by a major hurricane, one that would move northward through the state after making landfall, and that this southern Florida zone overall would enter the strongest and most active hurricane cycle since the period from 1945 to 1950 (65 to 70 years ago).

In his February, 2017 forecast he predicted the USA’s record 12-year run without a major hurricane hit would end in a big way. And it did.

Dilley’s forecasting is not based on global warming, but rather on natural weather cycles that the globe experiences over years, decades and even centuries. The 45-year veteran meteorologist boasts that his Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) forecast was “the only organization correctly predicting last year’s Atlantic hurricane season and destructive landfalls.”

Dilley says that “some United States zones are currently in their strongest hurricane landfall cycle in 40 to 70-years.” This is a Natural Climate Pulse Cycle that produced extremely active and dangerous hurricane conditions in some zones back in the 1930s and 1940s – and is now repeating.

Mr. Dilley predicts that 2018 will be somewhat of a repeat of 2017 – and possibly another record breaker.

He says: “We can expect 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, potential for 4 United States hurricane landfalls – 2 of which will likely be major impact storms” and that there is the potential for 6 named storms making United States landfalls. On the average, the entire Atlantic Basin has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes.

“The reason for another destructive hurricane season is 3-fold,” says Dilley. “The ocean water temperatures continue to run warmer than normal across most of the Atlantic Basin, and especially in the Caribbean region and the Atlantic near the United States. This is very similar to the ocean temperatures of last year, and this will again be conducive for tropical storms and/or hurricanes forming and/or strengthening close to the United States.”

Mr. Dilley also expects the Bermuda-Azores High Pressure Center will again be in a favorable location – thus allowing more named storms to maintain strength – or strengthen as they move from east to west across the Atlantic toward the United States.

Then there’s the last item, Dilley says: El Niño. GWO’s model indicates that the Tropical South Pacific Ocean temperatures where El Niño events typically form – will warm significantly during late winter and approach weak El Niño conditions during the spring- much like the El Niño scare of last year. However, all years are not the same – therefore it could mature enough to form a very weak El Niño, but not strong enough to dampen the hurricane season. Historical records indicate that moderate to strong El Nino events dampen hurricane activity – whereas years with very weak El Niño conditions can be associated with active hurricane seasons if a Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle is in place – and it is.