In our regular-season finale of looking through the NFL team rankings, we reflect on which teams were the biggest surprises and which didn't live up to expectations.

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This is it. The final Power Rankings consensus post of the 2013 NFL Regular Season. Some of you may have noticed that I didn't get an article up last week. I apologize, but with Christmas being on Wednesday and a few other personal issues, it was really difficult to get the commentary together to write the post. I did collect all the rankings last week, however, so the "change in ranking" columns are all based on rankings from last week.

Now that the regular season is over, let's start with a little review, shall we?

Biggest Surprises

Team Week 1 Average Week 18 Average Difference CAR 21.000 3.683 17.317 ARI 25.556 9.439 16.117 PHI 24.000 9.667 14.333 SDG 25.889 12.122 13.767 KC 21.667 9.494 12.173

While all 5 teams on this list did perform better than anyone else expected, I'd say on this list, the Cardinals are the biggest surprise to me.

Biggest Disappointments

Team Week 1 Average Week 18 Average Difference HOU 7.667 30.950 -23.283 ATL 4.444 25.578 -21.134 WAS 11.111 29.983 -18.872 BAL 7.333 18.444 -11.111 NYG 12.444 22.561 -10.117

I'm a little surprised to see Baltimore on the disappointments list. Yes, it's disappointing to see the defending Super Bowl champions go 8-8 and not make the playoffs. But, it wasn't a huge surprised that they struggled a bit this year. We knew they lost quite a bit of talent in the offseason. Maybe expectations were still a bit too high to start teh season.

Notable Quotes

We predicted San Diego would be the sixth seed way back in October, and we continued to stick with it, even after the Bolts dropped to 5-7. That was the result more of our stubbornness than football IQ, but whatever. Look, everyone knows the Chargers got lucky Sunday. Now that they're in, they just need to ball out like they did in Denver in Week 15. That starts with pounding the Bengals on the ground, which means Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead should have 30 carries combined. On the road and against that pass rush, San Diego should not put the game on Philip Rivers. - NFL.com

Forcing their way into the playoff race, the Chargers snuck in assisted by a non-call against Kansas City’s B-team. Regardless, they got the spot and head to Cincinnati after their new-look offense helped them climb 15 spots from their preseason rank. - Pro Football Focus

Who are the Chargers? San Diego went 5-2 against teams that finished with a winning record, and 4-5 against teams that finished .500 or worse. - ESPN

Division Averages

Division Week 18 Average Week 17 Average Difference NFC West 7.9605 7.6447 -0.3158 AFC West 13.5132 13.3421 -0.1711 NFC South 14.9605 15.1053 0.1448 AFC East 16.6184 16.3158 -0.3026 AFC North 17.0526 17.1842 0.1316 NFC North 19.4079 19.8816 0.4737 NFC East 20.0789 19.8816 -0.1973 AFC South 22.4079 22.6447 0.2368

Stock Rising

Team Week 17 Average Week 18 Average Difference GB 18.694 15.356 3.338 NYJ 23.350 20.656 2.694 PIT 16.622 15.122 1.500 NO 6.767 5.883 0.884 CIN 7.367 6.744 0.623

Stock Falling

Team Week 17 Average Week 18 Average Difference MIA 14.511 17.472 -2.961 DAL 16.456 18.067 -1.611 ARI 8.250 9.439 -1.189 BAL 17.306 18.444 -1.138 BUF 21.544 22.578 -1.034

Subjective Average

Subjective Seahawks 1 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1.556 0.444 Broncos 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1.556 -0.056 Panthers 3 5 3 3 3 4 3 4 5 3.667 -0.267 49ers 4 4 5 5 4 3 4 3 3 3.889 -0.289 Patriots 5 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4.333 0.267 Saints 6 7 7 6 7 8 6 7 6 6.667 0.533 Bengals 7 6 6 8 8 6 7 6 8 6.889 0.511 Chiefs 10 9 10 9 6 12 8 9 7 8.889 -0.289 Colts 8 8 8 10 10 9 9 8 11 9.000 0.400 Eagles 11 10 9 7 11 7 10 10 9 9.333 0.967 Cardinals 9 13 12 11 9 10 11 12 10 10.778 -2.278 Packers 13 11 11 14 12 11 13 11 13 12.111 5.389 Chargers 12 12 13 12 13 13 12 13 12 12.444 0.256 Steelers 14 14 14 13 15 14 15 14 17 14.444 2.356 Bears 15 18 17 18 14 15 14 15 14 15.556 -1.156 Ravens 16 16 16 15 16 16 16 16 16 15.889 -2.389 Cowboys 17 17 15 17 17 19 19 17 18 17.333 -1.533 Dolphins 18 19 20 19 18 20 18 19 15 18.444 -3.644 Jets 19 15 19 16 19 23 20 18 23 19.111 2.589 Rams 20 21 18 21 20 17 17 20 20 19.333 -0.833 Lions 21 20 22 24 23 18 21 22 19 21.111 -0.711 Titans 22 22 21 23 22 21 22 23 21 21.889 0.511 Giants 23 23 25 20 21 22 23 21 22 22.222 0.778 Bills 25 26 24 22 24 26 24 24 26 24.556 -1.356 Vikings 24 24 26 25 25 25 25 25 24 24.778 0.322 Buccaneers 27 25 27 27 27 28 26 27 25 26.556 -0.556 Falcons 26 27 23 29 26 27 27 26 28 26.556 0.444 Browns 28 29 29 28 29 24 28 28 27 27.778 0.422 Jaguars 29 28 30 26 28 30 30 29 29 28.778 -0.778 Raiders 30 30 31 30 30 29 29 30 30 29.889 -0.389 Redskins 31 31 28 31 31 31 31 31 31 30.667 0.333 Texans 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 0.000

Observations:

Seahawks and Broncos are in a dead-heat now. Both tied with a 1.556 average ranking.

Aaron Rodgers returns to Green Bay. Green Bay shoots up in the rankings.

The Arizona Cardinals, a team not playing in the playoffs, are ranked ahead of the Packers and Chargers, two teams that are playing this weekend. Just goes to show the strength of the NFC West, and the NFC on the whole.

Chargers are solidly holding down the number-12 spot.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective Texans 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.000 0.000 Ravens 16 16 16 15 16 16 16 16 16 0.314 -1.046 Broncos 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 0.497 -0.003 Chargers 12 12 13 12 13 13 12 13 12 0.497 -1.179 Raiders 30 30 31 30 30 29 29 30 30 0.567 -0.458 Vikings 24 24 26 25 25 25 25 25 24 0.629 -0.817 Saints 6 7 7 6 7 8 6 7 6 0.667 -0.933 Seahawks 1 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0.685 -0.315 49ers 4 4 5 5 4 3 4 3 3 0.737 -0.283 Titans 22 22 21 23 22 21 22 23 21 0.737 -0.825 Panthers 3 5 3 3 3 4 3 4 5 0.817 -0.100 Bengals 7 6 6 8 8 6 7 6 8 0.875 -0.406 Redskins 31 31 28 31 31 31 31 31 31 0.943 0.943 Patriots 5 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 0.943 -0.077 Buccaneers 27 25 27 27 27 28 26 27 25 0.956 -0.657 Colts 8 8 8 10 10 9 9 8 11 1.054 -0.956 Steelers 14 14 14 13 15 14 15 14 17 1.066 -0.534 Packers 13 11 11 14 12 11 13 11 13 1.100 0.075 Cowboys 17 17 15 17 17 19 19 17 18 1.155 -0.980 Jaguars 29 28 30 26 28 30 30 29 29 1.227 -0.038 Bills 25 26 24 22 24 26 24 24 26 1.257 -0.576 Cardinals 9 13 12 11 9 10 11 12 10 1.315 0.393 Giants 23 23 25 20 21 22 23 21 22 1.397 0.397 Eagles 11 10 9 7 11 7 10 10 9 1.414 -0.073 Dolphins 18 19 20 19 18 20 18 19 15 1.423 -0.177 Browns 28 29 29 28 29 24 28 28 27 1.474 0.602 Rams 20 21 18 21 20 17 17 20 20 1.491 -0.074 Bears 15 18 17 18 14 15 14 15 14 1.571 -0.173 Falcons 26 27 23 29 26 27 27 26 28 1.571 -0.326 Chiefs 10 9 10 9 6 12 8 9 7 1.663 -0.022 Lions 21 20 22 24 23 18 21 22 19 1.792 -0.583 Jets 19 15 19 16 19 23 20 18 23 2.558 1.289

Observations:

Overall, a lot of consensus across the board. I guess that's easy to do though when we've seen all these teams play 16 games now.

Only 6 teams saw their standard deviation go up this week. 1 team stayed the same (unanimous 32nd-ranked Texans). All the other 25 teams saw their deviation go down.

In Week 1, half the league had a deviation greater than 2.0. Now, only 1 team holds that distinction.

Objective Average

Objective Seahawks 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.100 0.233 Panthers 3 8 3 4 2 3 4 3 4 3 3.700 -0.033 Broncos 2 3 6 3 9 2 2 7 3 4 4.100 -0.211 49ers 6 6 1 2 11 5 3 5 2 2 4.300 0.144 Saints 4 2 5 5 5 7 5 6 7 5 5.100 1.233 Bengals 9 4 8 9 3 4 9 2 10 8 6.600 0.733 Patriots 5 9 7 7 4 10 8 8 8 6 7.200 0.022 Cardinals 10 7 4 6 13 12 6 11 5 7 8.100 -0.100 Colts 13 16 9 8 8 11 10 10 6 9 10.000 0.222 Eagles 8 5 12 12 12 6 13 9 12 11 10.000 -0.222 Chiefs 7 19 16 10 10 9 7 4 9 10 10.100 -0.433 Chargers 12 15 11 11 7 13 11 15 11 12 11.800 0.200 Rams 14 26 10 13 15 15 12 19 13 13 15.000 -0.444 Steelers 15 11 13 15 17 20 18 14 18 17 15.800 0.644 Dolphins 23 20 14 17 6 19 15 21 16 14 16.500 -2.278 Titans 20 22 20 14 14 16 16 16 14 18 17.000 0.667 Lions 16 10 27 19 24 8 17 13 24 21 17.900 0.544 Bears 11 12 26 25 16 18 24 12 22 20 18.600 -0.600 Packers 21 14 22 21 18 17 21 17 19 16 18.600 1.289 Cowboys 17 21 25 16 25 22 14 18 15 15 18.800 -1.689 Bills 18 18 21 20 23 14 22 22 25 23 20.600 -0.711 Ravens 22 29 17 18 19 23 23 20 20 19 21.000 0.111 Jets 24 24 15 26 20 21 26 23 21 22 22.200 2.800 Giants 27 13 19 24 26 27 25 27 17 24 22.900 0.211 Buccaneers 19 31 18 22 21 24 19 29 23 26 23.200 -1.422 Falcons 25 28 23 23 22 28 20 25 27 25 24.600 0.511 Vikings 26 23 24 27 27 29 27 26 26 27 26.200 -0.644 Browns 28 17 30 29 31 30 29 24 31 28 27.700 -0.700 Raiders 31 30 29 28 29 26 30 31 29 29 29.200 -0.200 Redskins 29 27 31 32 28 25 31 30 30 30 29.300 -0.411 Texans 30 25 32 30 32 31 28 28 32 31 29.900 0.544 Jaguars 32 32 28 31 30 32 32 32 28 32 30.900 -0.011

Observations:

Though they're duking it out in the Subjective lists, the Seahawks and Broncos aren't as close in the Objective lists.

Arizona is ranked above 4 playoff teams in the Objective list. Not sure if I'd take comfort in that or be distraught as a Cardinals fan.

Chargers higher than 12th overall in the Objective list.

Jacksonville is still the worst in the league.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective Seahawks 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.300 -0.643 Saints 4 2 5 5 5 7 5 6 7 5 1.375 -0.886 Raiders 31 30 29 28 29 26 30 31 29 29 1.400 -0.014 Panthers 3 8 3 4 2 3 4 3 4 3 1.552 -0.148 Jaguars 32 32 28 31 30 32 32 32 28 32 1.578 -0.017 Vikings 26 23 24 27 27 29 27 26 26 27 1.600 -0.715 Patriots 5 9 7 7 4 10 8 8 8 6 1.721 -0.210 Redskins 29 27 31 32 28 25 31 30 30 30 2.003 0.211 Texans 30 25 32 30 32 31 28 28 32 31 2.166 0.000 Chargers 12 15 11 11 7 13 11 15 11 12 2.182 -0.357 Broncos 2 3 6 3 9 2 2 7 3 4 2.300 -0.078 Packers 21 14 22 21 18 17 21 17 19 16 2.498 -1.704 Falcons 25 28 23 23 22 28 20 25 27 25 2.498 0.265 Steelers 15 11 13 15 17 20 18 14 18 17 2.561 -0.907 Colts 13 16 9 8 8 11 10 10 6 9 2.683 -0.176 Eagles 8 5 12 12 12 6 13 9 12 11 2.683 -0.806 Titans 20 22 20 14 14 16 16 16 14 18 2.720 0.226 49ers 6 6 1 2 11 5 3 5 2 2 2.830 -0.003 Bengals 9 4 8 9 3 4 9 2 10 8 2.836 0.087 Cardinals 10 7 4 6 13 12 6 11 5 7 2.982 -0.962 Bills 18 18 21 20 23 14 22 22 25 23 3.040 0.397 Jets 24 24 15 26 20 21 26 23 21 22 3.092 0.467 Ravens 22 29 17 18 19 23 23 20 20 19 3.286 -0.095 Cowboys 17 21 25 16 25 22 14 18 15 15 3.945 -0.122 Browns 28 17 30 29 31 30 29 24 31 28 4.051 -0.139 Buccaneers 19 31 18 22 21 24 19 29 23 26 4.143 -0.146 Chiefs 7 19 16 10 10 9 7 4 9 10 4.158 -0.485 Rams 14 26 10 13 15 15 12 19 13 13 4.290 -0.110 Dolphins 23 20 14 17 6 19 15 21 16 14 4.544 0.839 Giants 27 13 19 24 26 27 25 27 17 24 4.636 -0.089 Bears 11 12 26 25 16 18 24 12 22 20 5.389 1.306 Lions 16 10 27 19 24 8 17 13 24 21 5.974 -0.577

Observations:

Much less agreement overall in this list than in the Subjective rankings list.

NFC teams take the bulk of the most and least consistently-ranked teams.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Seahawks 1.556 1.100 1.328 0.339 Broncos 1.556 4.100 2.828 -0.134 Panthers 3.667 3.700 3.683 -0.150 49ers 3.889 4.300 4.094 -0.072 Patriots 4.333 7.200 5.767 0.144 Saints 6.667 5.100 5.883 0.884 Bengals 6.889 6.600 6.744 0.623 Cardinals 10.778 8.100 9.439 -1.189 Chiefs 8.889 10.100 9.494 -0.361 Colts 9.000 10.000 9.500 0.311 Eagles 9.333 10.000 9.667 0.372 Chargers 12.444 11.800 12.122 0.228 Steelers 14.444 15.800 15.122 1.500 Packers 12.111 18.600 15.356 3.338 Bears 15.556 18.600 17.078 -0.878 Rams 19.333 15.000 17.167 -0.639 Dolphins 18.444 16.500 17.472 -2.961 Cowboys 17.333 18.800 18.067 -1.611 Ravens 15.889 21.000 18.444 -1.138 Titans 21.889 17.000 19.444 0.589 Lions 21.111 17.900 19.506 -0.084 Jets 19.111 22.200 20.656 2.694 Giants 22.222 22.900 22.561 0.495 Bills 24.556 20.600 22.578 -1.034 Buccaneers 26.556 23.200 24.878 -0.989 Vikings 24.778 26.200 25.489 -0.161 Falcons 26.556 24.600 25.578 0.478 Browns 27.778 27.700 27.739 -0.139 Raiders 29.889 29.200 29.544 -0.294 Jaguars 28.778 30.900 29.839 -0.395 Redskins 30.667 29.300 29.983 -0.039 Texans 32.000 29.900 30.950 0.272

Observations:

Seahawks retain top spot. Nearly twice as good as the Broncos are.

Face it Steelers fans, missed calls aside, the better team made the playoffs.

Interesting how the Chargers basically stand on their own at ~12. The next nearest teams — above or below — are about 3 spots away.

Amusing that the NFC's 6th seed — the Saints — are ranked above the AFC's 3rd–through–6th seeds.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Seahawks 1.556 1.100 0.567 -0.462 Raiders 29.889 29.200 1.141 -0.109 Panthers 3.667 3.700 1.259 -0.093 Saints 6.667 5.100 1.348 -0.641 Vikings 24.778 26.200 1.428 -0.493 Chargers 12.444 11.800 1.651 -0.506 Redskins 30.667 29.300 1.731 0.109 Jaguars 28.778 30.900 1.774 -0.258 Texans 32.000 29.900 1.889 0.208 Patriots 4.333 7.200 2.007 0.000 Steelers 14.444 15.800 2.109 -0.551 Broncos 1.556 4.100 2.125 0.068 49ers 3.889 4.300 2.125 -0.003 Colts 9.000 10.000 2.137 -0.346 Bengals 6.889 6.600 2.148 0.040 Eagles 9.333 10.000 2.202 -0.443 Falcons 26.556 24.600 2.325 0.056 Cardinals 10.778 8.100 2.699 -0.108 Cowboys 17.333 18.800 3.059 -0.207 Bills 24.556 20.600 3.084 0.289 Browns 27.778 27.700 3.109 0.097 Titans 21.889 17.000 3.180 0.047 Jets 19.111 22.200 3.242 0.629 Chiefs 8.889 10.100 3.283 -0.180 Ravens 15.889 21.000 3.499 -1.065 Buccaneers 26.556 23.200 3.503 -0.308 Giants 22.222 22.900 3.514 0.182 Dolphins 18.444 16.500 3.574 0.757 Packers 12.111 18.600 3.789 0.574 Rams 19.333 15.000 3.927 0.140 Bears 15.556 18.600 4.332 0.765 Lions 21.111 17.900 4.783 -0.141

Observations:

5 of the 7 most consistently–ranked teams are in the NFC.

6 of the 7 least consistently–ranked teams are in the NFC.

Patriots deviation did not change at all overall this week.

Chargers continue their season-long trend of being one of the more consistently-ranked teams.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj Packers 12.111 18.600 6.489 4.100 Ravens 15.889 21.000 5.111 -2.500 Jets 19.111 22.200 3.089 -0.211 Bears 15.556 18.600 3.044 -0.556 Patriots 4.333 7.200 2.867 0.245 Broncos 1.556 4.100 2.544 0.155 Jaguars 28.778 30.900 2.122 -0.767 Cowboys 17.333 18.800 1.467 0.156 Vikings 24.778 26.200 1.422 0.966 Steelers 14.444 15.800 1.356 1.712 Chiefs 8.889 10.100 1.211 0.144 Colts 9.000 10.000 1.000 0.178 Giants 22.222 22.900 0.678 0.567 Eagles 9.333 10.000 0.667 1.189 49ers 3.889 4.300 0.411 -0.433 Panthers 3.667 3.700 0.033 -0.234 Browns 27.778 27.700 -0.078 1.122 Bengals 6.889 6.600 -0.289 -0.222 Seahawks 1.556 1.100 -0.456 0.211 Chargers 12.444 11.800 -0.644 0.056 Raiders 29.889 29.200 -0.689 -0.189 Redskins 30.667 29.300 -1.367 0.744 Saints 6.667 5.100 -1.567 -0.700 Dolphins 18.444 16.500 -1.944 -1.366 Falcons 26.556 24.600 -1.956 -0.067 Texans 32.000 29.900 -2.100 -0.544 Cardinals 10.778 8.100 -2.678 -2.178 Lions 21.111 17.900 -3.211 -1.255 Buccaneers 26.556 23.200 -3.356 0.866 Bills 24.556 20.600 -3.956 -0.645 Rams 19.333 15.000 -4.333 -0.389 Titans 21.889 17.000 -4.889 -0.156

Observations:

Are the Packers better again with Rodgers back and they're just being held down by their recent games with Flynn at the helm? Or are the pundits giving them too much credit? We'll find out this weekend.

Pick your reasoning, but the Ravens weren't as good this season as many want to believe.

8 of the 12 teams with an "over-ranking" greater than 1.000 are AFC teams. This includes four of the six AFC playoff teams.

Chargers and Bengals — who square–off this Sunday – are both slightl under-ranked.

7 of the 11 teams "under-ranked" by more than 1.000 are NFC teams

Looking at the bottom 5 of this list, you could easily make a "5 biggest underachievers" list for 2013, and these would be a solid 5 teams on that list.

Sources