A day after the India Meteorological Department lowered its monsoon forecast, the government on Wednesday swung into action to brace itself for any eventuality. It said it had a contingency plan prepared for a little over 600 districts. (The country has 676 districts.) Besides, efforts were on to stabilise prices of pulses, rice and wheat.

The government will also announce the minimum support prices for kharif crops in a fortnight, which will provide direction to farmers on what to sow, agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh told reporters here.

Besides, work for more days than stipulated by the rural employment guarantee scheme would be offered in districts receiving less rain, officials said.

Also, the government would rely more on gas-fired plants to meet the deficit in hydroelectric power. Hence, additional gas supply is being made available to restart 14,000 Mw in June-September to meet the hydro-power shortage. Moreover, coal generation and supply is being increased, Power Minister Piyush Goyal said.

To meet drinking water shortage, special trains might be run, apart from monitoring water levels in reservoirs, which can drop to alarming levels if rains fail. Authorities would be directed to calibrate the release of water from major dams, officials said.

"I am hopeful that there will not be a big loss in agriculture or economic growth," Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh said at a press conference today. The monsoon forecast comes a few days after data showed farm and allied sector production contracted for the second quarter in a row in January-March.

Singh said the Centre had a contingency plan for 580 districts, with efforts on to add 30 districts of the Northeast into the scheme.

"The Indian Council of Agriculture Research is distributing short-duration seeds. We have talked to the Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture on updating advisories," he added.

Some experts, however, were sceptical of these plans.

Said Sudhir Panwar, president of Kisan Jagriti Manch and a member of Uttar Pradesh Planning Commission: "To me, district-wise contingency plans have little impact on ground. What the government could do in case of monsoon failure is that for rain-fed areas, it could give some alternative work like extra days in MGNREGA (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act) and for areas that are irrigated, it could give diesel subsidy or increase the power supply, so that the cost of production doesn't escalate and his margin is maintained."



Finance ministry officials said the government was better equipped to deal with a drought now. "The impact of a failed monsoon will only be felt once the kharif sowing season starts. For now, there is not much cause for concern," a senior finance ministry official said. The official said the government had a number of policy options to tackle a drought, including interest subvention and lowering taxes on fuel. "Even for something like interest subvention for farmers, it will only be in the worst affected regions," he added.

The government has decided to include pulses in the price stabilisation fund from which states can draw money to purchase and distribute them to consumers.

If prices still rise, the government will import pulses, the minister said. "Our pulses production in 2013-14 was 19.2 million tonnes, which dropped to 17.3 million tonnes in 2014-15. We imported 4.5 million tonnes in 2014-15. We have adequate pulses and will import more as needed," Singh said.

The agriculture ministry was heeding Andhra Pradesh's request for supply of pulses, Singh said. "Any other state that wants pulses to cool prices can approach us," he added.

"Pulses are a burning issue ... I want to assure we will ensure adequate supplies to state governments from our own stocks. If required, we will import," Singh said.

Retail prices of pulses have risen by up to 64 per cent in the last one year. In the national capital, retail prices of tur, urad and moong have already crossed Rs 100 a kg against Rs 72-97 a year ago.

Monsoon rain, projected at 88 per cent of the long period average, is expected to be lowest in the northwest, comprising major grain producing states Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. The other vulnerable belt is Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat.

Rice, oilseeds, sugarcane and pulses could be affected. The Food Corporation of India's grain stock on May 1 was 59.13 million tonnes against a requirement of 41.12 million tonnes. Singh said his ministry was launching an insurance scheme to guarantee the income of farmers. "The scheme will be operational by the end of this year," he added. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had earlier raised the compensation for agricultural loss to one-and-a-half times. "If earlier a farmer was receiving Rs 100 as compensation, now he will get Rs 150," the prime minister had said.

CONTINGENCY PLAN



AGRICULTURE

Contingency plans for 580 districts in place and for another 30 districts in east India being framed

State governments to sell pulses at cheap rates in case of a shortage

FOOD & CONSUMER AFFAIRS

Could offload wheat and rice stocks from central pool into open market

RURAL DEVELOPMENT

Might expand mandays under MGNREGA to more than 100 days in worst drought-hit districts

WATER RESOURCES

To monitor water levels in reservoirs

POWER

Coal- and gas-fired power plants being readied to meet deficit of hydro-power

FINANCE MINISTRY