Frankly, I don’t think the GOP has been this unified on foreign policy since Obama took office. And if political handicappers would follow the foreign policy debate a bit more closely, they’d notice that Rand Paul has further isolated himself on the right, in part, by accusing Christian Zionists of war-mongering. You really have to wonder whether Rand Paul is going to do that much better than his father when he’s scared off business Republicans, disappointed Silicon Valley backers on immigration reform (he was for it before he voted against it) and, most important, alienated Christian conservatives. The notion that we should “nation build at home” — voiced by the president and by Rand Paul — is now akin to Neville Chamberlain’s “peace for our time,” a sign of utter and dangerous cluelessness on national security.

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Maybe all these issues will fade by 2016, but mainstream media prognosticators underestimate the degree to which a strong United States and a resolute pro-Israel foreign policy are gateway issues for religious voters. As with pro-abortion politics on the left, Israel bona fides on the right are a strong barrier to entry against a character like Rand Paul who’d contemplate containment of Iran, something so far out of the mainstream that not even J Street would openly advocate it.