Manny Machado keeps smashing dingers for a Baltimore Orioles team that’s already 17 1/2 games behind the first-place Yankees in the AL East. In his final season under Baltimore’s control, Machado leads the Majors with 15 home runs and ranks second in the American League with a 1.083 OPS. The 25-year-old has been a great player since the day he came up in 2012, but he appears to have stepped up his offensive game just in time to ensure a free-agent windfall in the winter.

Since the Orioles are a revenue-sharing recipient and Machado will certainly sign for well in excess of $50 million, the club stands to gain a draft pick just after the first round upon his departure. But since, come the annual trade deadline, many teams will certainly be willing to pony up something more valuable than that compensatory pick, Machado appears a near-lock to be dealt sometime in the next couple of months.

Machado’s good enough to upgrade every single team in baseball, but not every current contender looks like an obvious fit: The Brewers, for example, lead the NL Central entering play Tuesday but would almost certainly be better off finding a starting pitcher if they want to go all-in for this season.

There’s always some chance the Orioles particularly covet some rando in the Brewers’ low minors and Machado falls into Milwaukee’s lap, just as there are cases for clubs like the Braves, Yankees, Diamondbacks, Mets, Cardinals and even the Astros to push for Machado. Again — he’s real good. But since his acquisition would amount to a half-season rental and the financial burden would be only Machado’s pro-rated 2018 salary, the group of teams that might bid for him this summer is a bit broader than the one likely to pursue him in free agency.

The following is based on no insider information beyond what has been rumored and reported elsewhere, and it mostly represents the outcome of looking at various contenders’ rosters and minor-league systems and trying to identify good fits. Here are the seven most likely landing spots for Machado at the trade deadline:

7. Seattle Mariners

I’m putting the Mariners here because GM Jerry DiPoto seems like a bit of a wild card and they just lost Robinson Cano for 80 games and, if necessary, the postseason due to his PED suspension. But Cano should return sometime in mid-August and Kyle Seager’s entrenched at third, so finding a spot for Machado in the field in Seattle would likely mean moving Jean Segura to second base until Cano returns and trying to figure something out after that.

It probably doesn’t make sense: Given the state of the Mariners’ starting staff after James Paxton right now, it seems like the only way they could viably remain in contention in a competitive AL West would be to add a pitcher or replace Cano’s bat in the lineup immediately. And working out a deal so far in advance of the trade deadline could mean ponying up a bigger haul in young talent to convince the Orioles to move, and the Mariners don’t have a terribly deep farm system right now. Rethinking their inclusion here.

6. Boston Red Sox

The offseason rumor mill held that the Orioles would be reluctant to deal Machado to a divisional rival like the Yankees or Red Sox. If that’s true, it’s preposterously dumb: Fans are going to have to get used to life without Machado one way or another, there’s nothing the Orioles will be able to do in the offseason to keep him away from the big-spending AL East giants, the surest way to draw people back to the ballpark and the broadcast is to build a winning team, and shutting out competition for Machado’s services could only drive his trade price down.

It says here the Orioles know enough to be willing — if not particularly eager — to engage the Red Sox and Yankees in Machado talks, and Boston lands on the list because it has a few more holes in the lineup that need filling, and, likely, a narrower window of contention. Acquiring Machado would likely mean fewer at-bats for young third baseman Rafael Devers, but adding Machado to a lineup that includes Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez would give the Sox a powerhouse offense.

5. Washington Nationals

If the Orioles don’t want to deal with clubs in their division, they must really not want to deal with the regional competitor with whom they’ve been engaged in a convoluted legal dispute over television rights for more than half a decade now. But the Nats are here because it seems almost astonishing how little they’ve done in the past eight months to capitalize on Bryce Harper’s final season under contract, and under the assumption that at some point, someone in the front office will be gazing admirably at Harper’s baseball-reference.com page and be all, “wait a minute — guys! guys! It’s this year. Harper’s gone after this year! Holy crap, holy crap, holy crap, get Duquette on the phone.”

Harper, Gio Gonzalez and the injured Daniel Murphy are set for free agency this offseason, and Anthony Rendon should hit the open market after next year. The Nationals have a handful of promising prospects — including recent call-up Juan Soto — and they’ll have Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in their rotation for years to come, but its hard to figure a time in the near future they’ll appear as viable a World Series contender as they are right now. Machado’s not a perfect fit, but Trea Turner’s defensive versatility gives them the flexibility to figure something out even if and when Murphy and Adam Eaton return and produce.

4. Cleveland Indians

A Jon Heyman report last week suggested the Indians could make a play for Machado despite a fairly crowded infield picture, which already includes younger and arguably better players in Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez on the left side. But as Heyman points out, Ramirez could slide to second and force the struggling Jason Kipnis to the bench or the outfield, and Machado would turn their average offense into a really good one.

The Indians are in a pretty weird spot. Their division is so bad that they could reach the postseason with a .500 record, and their starting pitching is so good that they’ll look like a favorite to go deep into the playoffs when they get there. Their top four starters are all under team control at fairly low costs through the 2020 season, and since they seem to have a way with arms, they’ve got a host of relatively unknown pitching prospects performing well at various levels that might entice the Orioles in enough bulk.

3. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are one of the teams expected to bid for Machado in free agency, but there’s a pretty decent case for them giving the infielder a potential preview this season. Like the Braves, they appear to be emerging from a long rebuild a bit sooner than expected and still have host of highly regarded prospects in their system. But where the Braves’ best pitchers are relatively untested and would enter the postseason in uncharted innings territory, the Phillies’ 1-2 combo of Jake Arrieta and Aaron Nola is strong enough to make them look pretty strong in a short postseason series.

In other words, it wouldn’t be nuts for the Phillies to step on the gas, acquire Machado, and throw open their long-awaited window of contention. It’s worth noting here, though, that I have no idea what it takes to land a rental player of Machado’s caliber in the current big-league climate, which so values young players under team control. The biggest pending free agents traded before the deadline last year were Yu Darvish and J.D. Martinez. The Tigers’ haul for Martinez looked — and still looks — especially unimpressive, and Darvish cost the Dodgers one Top 100 prospect — Willie Calhoun — and a couple of mildly promising but generally unheralded A-ball guys. But Machado’s better than Darvish and Martinez.

What I’m wondering is if a package built around young shortstop J.P. Crawford would be enough to get Machado. Crawford’s on the disabled list right now, but his is the spot where the Phillies could most use an offensive upgrade in 2018. He’s only 23 and he has been an extremely well regarded prospect for about half a decade now, but he has struggled in his first turn through the Majors and never put up huge numbers in the high minors.

Offseason rumors held that the Orioles sought viable big-league ready starting pitchers in a deal for Machado, but that’s a tougher thing to figure out because it’s not clear the Orioles have any idea what that looks like.

2. Chicago Cubs

The Cubs appear the de facto favorite to land Machado, with rumors swirling that they could deal Addison Russell to Baltimore in return. Russell, now 24, has not quite lived up to his massive prospect hype but is nonetheless a solidly above-average big-league shortstop due to his defensive acumen.

But, putting aside that I have little to know idea what the Orioles are planning for the near and long-term future, it’s hard to figure how that deal makes a whole lot of sense for either club. The Cubs have a chance to win the World Series in 2018 and renting Machado does increase the likelihood of it happening, but the Cubs, as currently constructed, should also vie for a championship for at least the next two years after this one: Every single of their position players besides Ben Zobrist is under team control through at least 2020, as is their entire starting rotation and half their bullpen. They would be better for getting Machado in 2018, just as they’ll be better in 2019 if they sign him to a free-agent deal come the winter.

Maybe they see Russell as superfluous, since Javier Baez can also play shortstop and they have options for second base. Plus, Russell’s into his arbitration years and starting to get expensive, so maybe, from the Cubs’ side, giving up three-plus seasons’ worth of Russell’s services for a few months of Machado is worth it for the offensive upgrade. But, wait, does it even make sense for the Orioles?

While Russell is a fairly big name to take on and, again, a proven above-average big-league shortstop, he’s nothing close to Machado’s equal and unlikely to become so anytime soon. And the Orioles, especially given the state of their division, probably can’t make realistic aspersions to contention in 2019 or 2020. If they start tearing it all down immediately and literally everything falls right in their rebuild, maybe they can get back in the mix by 2021. But that’d mean having Russell under contract for only one year of competitive baseball.

I’m not saying it won’t happen, I’m just saying it doesn’t make that much sense to me.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

I know, I know: The Dodgers got off to a miserable start to the season, they’re desperate to stay under the luxury-tax threshold, and most recent reporting has suggested they’re out on Machado.

But wait! Los Angeles has won five of its last six games and the Diamondbacks have completely fallen apart, and though there are three teams ahead of the Dodgers in the division, they’re only 4 1/2 games back of the first-place Rockies. Justin Turner’s back from injury, Yasiel Puig is hitting again, and Clayton Kershaw’s on the mend.

The NL West is still there for the Dodgers to take, their front office has repeatedly shown financial creativity in pulling off trades, and they likely have the quality and volume of prospects necessary to swing a deal with Baltimore. Shortstop Corey Seager is done for the year following Tommy John surgery, and Machado’s going to be the only guy on the trade block good enough to replace him.

This is just a hunch, of course — these are all just hunches. But the Dodgers seem like such an obvious fit as a trade suitor for Machado that I’m ignoring reports to the contrary. And I’ll guess, too, that Matt Kemp goes to Baltimore as part (but by no means the focal point) of the deal. Shuttling Matt Kemp’s contract around as part of payroll machinations is becoming a celebrated baseball tradition, and while Kemp has been the Dodgers’ best hitter this season, he’s probably more valuable to the Orioles: His righty power bat will play well at Camden Yards, the DH will allow his legs more rest, and he’s the type of guy who’d fill seats and sell jerseys while the Orioles wait out the development of whatever young arms they score in the deal.