In 1964, Republican Barry Goldwater suffered a devastating landslide loss to LBJ. Aside from his home state of Arizona, Goldwater carried only five other states, all in the Deep South. Goldwater amassed only 52 electoral votes, to Johnson’s 486.

But even that paltry performance will look “extremely successful” compared to the thrashing that is in store for Donald Trump in November — if you believe Joe Scarborough. On today’s Morning Joe, after reviewing Trump’s disapproval numbers with various demographics, Scarborough said “Barry Goldwater is going to look like an extremely successful candidate.” Interestingly, Nick Confessore of the New York Times disagreed, arguing that the American electorate is so polarized that LBJ-like landslides are impossible today, and that the candidate of either party has a guaranteed base of 48%.

Scarborough- Coming Trump Defeat Will Make Goldwater’s Landslide Loss Look ‘Very Successful’ from Mark Finkelstein on Vimeo.

Let’s look at the electoral map. In order for Scarborough to be right, Trump would have to lose some of the Deep South states that Goldwater carried. So which of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina does Joe say Hillary will win? And even if Hillary did manage to take, say, Georgia, is Scarborough saying that Trump won’t win any states that Goldwater lost? Hillary will win each of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, etc? Really?

JOE SCARBOROUGH: The thing is, Nick, you just look at the numbers right now. I’m loved with Hispanics: 89% of Hispanics disapprove of him. The blacks love me, he says. 94% of black voters disapprove of him. Women love me. I’ll be great for women. What is that? Up in the 70s now? RON FOURNIER: 53% of low-income whites days disapprove of him. JOE: 53% of low-income whites days disapprove of him. We have never seen numbers like this. Barry Goldwater is going to look like an extremely successful candidate. NICK CONFESSORE: I don’t think so. I’m probably going to eat these words, but I don’t think a Goldwater-type landslide is possible in politics today. Americans are too polarized and segmented. DONNY DEUTSCH: Let me give you other numbers beyond the disapproval. You can still disapprove and maybe vote for somebody. 65% of women have said they will absolutely not vote for him. 55% of men, we will absolutely not vote. These are people not just disapproving. There’s just nothing that’s going to happen that’s going to — how does a landslide not come out of that? CONFESSORE: I’m just saying people are polarized by party and party ideas so strong in this country right now, that at the end everybody kind of comes home to some extent. And the amount of voters in the middle that go back and forth has become so small. I think any candidate for a ticket is guaranteed 48% of the vote basically.



