AUBURN, Alabama -- Auburn is not that far off from competing for an SEC championship, but don't expect it to happen this year, says college football prognosticator Phil Steele.

The key, as always, is winning the Iron Bowl, which Alabama has won three out of the last four years, including a 49-0 victory against Auburn last season.

"The talent level is not a 49-0 difference," Steele said in an interview with AL.com on the eve of SEC Media Days. "Last year was an Auburn team just trying to get out of the season and an Alabama team that wanted to dominate its rival. There's not that big of a gap between the two teams talent wise. I think Auburn can play more competitive this year and once they get to that level of being more competitive in the game, then all of a sudden the recruits get better."

Steele expects the Tigers to reach the Independence Bowl this season and compete in some tough games, but he expects Gus Malzahn's first team will be an underdog in as many as seven games.

His three teams prime for an upset are Ole Miss, Tennessee and Arkansas. Only Ole Miss is a home game for Auburn. He believes all three teams are "bowl caliber squads," and he expects Auburn will be playing with "more confidence" under Malzahn, whose hurry-up, no-huddle offense fits the personnel returning to the Plains.

"Last year I thought the switch from the spread offense to the pro-style attack was disastrous," Steele said of the 2012 offense led by Scot Loeffler.

The defense will also improve from its No. 79 ranking (second-to-last in the SEC) last season, when it allowed 421 yards per game. He expects defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson's unit to finish somewhere near the top 30 nationally with the 17th-best defensive line and a group of defensive backs ranked No. 33.

"He's got good talent to work with this year, so he's going to look like a genius at the end of the year," Steele said.

A few more highlights from Steele, whose preseason magazine is considered to be the most accurate on the market:

-- He projects junior college transfer Nick Marshall to win the Tigers' quarterback job.

-- He believes defensive stats in the SEC will take a hit this season with more and more teams switching to hurry-up offenses (Auburn, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Texas A&M). He compared it to the arguments in recent years concerning defenses in the Big 12 and those lauded in the SEC.

"With the hurry-up, spread offense coming to more and more programs you're going to see a little more scoring in SEC games," he said. "What Malzahn does is he just hits you where he aims. He goes and does a tremendous job game planning. I think he sizes up the weaknesses of the opponent and comes out with play-calling that is not predictable and really has great success with it. One of the keys is having the quarterback that can run and pass because that really opens up the playbook and he has the potential this year."

-- When will Auburn compete for the SEC West title again?

"Two to three years," he said. "I think when you look at 2010, Auburn was coming off nine-, five-, eight-win seasons. No one really expected them to be there and then boom some guy named

Cam Newton

came in and that helped a little bit and they went 14-0 to win the national title. In college football with the 85-scholarship rule, teams can rise quickly. I don't see it this year for Auburn. I can't see them jumping up there and being a contender in the West, but two to three years is clearly a possibility and I think Malzahn is getting the good recruits."