Caltrain currently runs it's baby bullet service from San Francisco to San Jose in both directions during morning and evening rush hour.

Analysis of data provided by caltrain.com for 2016 ridership during weekdays clearly reveals that the baby bullet service during morning rush hour comes to an end while ridership demand is still pretty high.

See analysis here:

https://twitter.com/KrisMurti/status/892655448590917632

Ideally ridership numbers should reflect a rise & fall (as seen with the evening data in both directions).

Notes:

In the analysis I have not included limited (2xx) service trains. They do to some extent affect specific data points, but if it did affect the outcome it would do it to both morning and evening scenarios.

For each direction I have provided the "net" addition ( number on - number off) of passengers for the first few stops from the departing station as this represents the number of passengers getting "picked up" by these trains.

The data is matched with the old schedule that was in effect in 2016 and can be accessed in the links below. If anything the 2017 schedule is even harsher with the last bullet leaving SF at 8:35 am (used to be 8:56 am)

The motivation for this analysis comes from anecdotal and personal experience of not being able to board the last bullet at the 22nd street station because the bike car was full. A follow up analysis should look into the bikers data.

"Old" schedule (2016)

Ridership Stats for 2016