Ever since the news that a new soccer league was on the horizon, I’ve wondered what it might look like and who the participants might be? This is part one of what I hope will be a multi-part series on the proposed new third division of American soccer, NISA. I apologize in advance.

Why are we here?

American soccer is a dynamic and quickly changing place. This is especially true in the divisions below MLS. When USL and NASL were both given provisional D2 status in January of 2017, a huge void in the soccer “pyramid” opened up.

For 2017, there is no one to fill that void. Up until few months ago, we were left to wonder who would fill that void in the future. Then we found out that USL would be launching a D3 league in 2019. Recently, renowned American soccer bad ass Peter Wilt announced a project to fill that void starting next year in 2018.

Let me preface all of this by saying I’m just some super obsessed lower division soccer dude. I don’t have “anonymous sources” telling me things. I will substantiate my musings and ramblings the best I can, but know they are just that: ramblings and musings.

Chattanooga FC’s “The Chattahooligans” — PC: Ray Soldano

History

For American soccer the question is always stability. From the time of the original NASL, soccer fans have been repeating “this time it’s real.” Over the last 20 or so years, they seem to have been proven right. MLS, whatever you think of it, seems to be stable. Attendance grows, revenues grow, and expansion continues. Sure we’ve seen the Tampa Bay Mutiny fold, and Chivas USA go “on hiatus” but we’ve had a pretty good run. Take a glance below MLS however and you will find a litany of clubs and their corpses strewn throughout recent history.

Ramblings and musings: let’s get nerdy

With that preface, what does the new D3 league (NISA) Mr. Wilt is proposing have to do to fill the void? A lot, actually. There are way more questions than answers at this point. Here we go!

Peter Wilt’s presence gives the proposal instant credibility. Few have similar success and experience in American Soccer circles. Wilt has played a major role in the Chicago Fire, Indy 11, WPS, the Chicago Red Stars, and various other projects. His track record and expertise are almost unparalleled in American soccer today. There are few people who know as much about building a successful soccer team in the craziness that is American soccer as Wilt has likely forgotten.

Wilt at the helm is as good as it gets. What’s next? The first round of teams will be critical. Who they have could make or break the league even more than finances or league office support. Or maybe even more than Wilt, since he’ll cede operational control to the owners. Will they get Chattanooga, Detroit, Grand Rapids, Tulsa, Wichita, Atlanta? Can they poach USL teams looking to cut expenses? Current USL teams like Harrisburg or Pittsburgh, or proposed NASL expansion teams like Chicago could be great candidates. Prospective NASL expansion groups could launch for a couple years in NISA and then move up to NASL with or without pro/rel (Wilt stated as much). USL D3 will certainly have the inside track for current USL teams, but maybe the offer of more control and freedom could entice some teams and owners. Existing pro clubs could add needed expertise for amateur clubs making the jump.

The market void is absolutely there and ambitious ownership groups everywhere will be looking at this first group and their success/failure. Who is in the first group becomes that much more important.

Wilt has stated that NISA will pursue D3 “full compliance” with no waivers. This means a minimum of 8 teams with 1,000+ seat stadiums, and each team with a controlling owner (more than 35% ownership of team) with a net worth of 10+ million. Can they find enough markets *and* ownership groups? Poaching successful amateur teams will be key. Teams will need adequate facilities. How many NPSL and PDL teams have pro level facilities? One thousand seated capacity isn’t that crazy, but it’s also nothing to sneeze at. If you haven’t attended many NPSL or PDL games, you’d probably be surprised how many facilities don’t have that many permanent seats, don’t have changing rooms, and/or no concessions.

Finley Stadium in Chattanooga, TN — Not your typical NPSL venue

Are the cost estimates accurate and realistic? The stated goal of ~$15 tickets is reasonable for fans, but is that enough to keep teams solvent? Successful amateur teams will not be eager to price out current fans, especially the casual fan. Are proposed sponsorship totals realistic? Can national sponsorship deals provide a base of funding for teams, especially those with smaller markets and potentially less local sponsorship opportunities?

The proposed NISA season is ~32 games. ~16 home and away. Average attendance in USL was ~3500 in 2016 (wiki). Using the rough figures cited in the Midfield Press Article and subsequent interviews, can those proposed 8–12 teams average almost as many fans as USL teams did in 2016? If not, they’ll need significant sponsor help. 800k was a sponsorship figure cited. That’s quite the chunk of change. Can teams get more?

If anyone understands these figures and challenges, it’s Peter Wilt and his consulting group, Club 9. Club 9 will be provide resources and consulting to amateur teams making the jump. Club 9 also appears to have a private equity arm. In theory, they could help match investors and existing teams together. Have a team but no owner worth 10 million? Have 10 million and want to buy into an existing team as opposed to the uncertainty of starting from scratch? Could be an interesting formula.

Look at a city like Birmingham. New-ish NPSL team that is doing the right things and growing. City that has been rumored for USL expansion. Do their ownership group have the pockets and ambition to go pro? Maybe. Can they be connected with investors? Better facilities?

The names change but there are a tons of similar cities and lower league teams throughout the county. ~175 teams in just the PDL and NPSL. Can they get top 10–15 markets and “best matches” from those leagues and convert them into successful, stable, pro teams?

How about regional rivalries? If, for example, Atlanta and Chattanooga join, there is an instant rivalry. Same with Grand Rapids and Detroit. As a Chattanooga fan, I can attribute some of Chattanooga FC’s success to geographic rivalries. Everyone wants to beat Atlanta. Someone from Nashville? Beat em! Knoxville? Rewrite Rocky Top! Can they find geographic pockets of teams with natural (or easily developed) rivalries? Regional rivalries are more important to team stability/success than travel costs, Wilt states, and I agree with him. Rivalries generate buzz. Rivalries sell tickets. Rivalries get fans to be invested. This will be a top priority.

Detroit City FC’s “The Northern Guard”— PC: Dion Degennaro

Wilt has stated in interviews they are looking at top 100 MSAs with at least 500k population as minimum requirements, about half of whom do not have pro soccer currently. They have LOIs (letters of intent) from 13 groups, plus an additional 15 or so serious inquiries. Current LOIs are from all over the US. They hope to choose 8–12 and fully vet them for 2018, with 4–6 additional for 2019. Vetting will include venue (beyond min standards), net worth of ownership, realistic and developed business plan, community connection, and regional placement (rivalries).

Profits and losses

Soccer clubs do not usually turn a profit. They are pretty bad businesses, as far as business go. In Soccernomics, the authors write that soccer clubs often turn less of a profit that your average supermarket. Not supermarket chains, but individual supermarkets. And they were referring to Premier League clubs! Paraphrasing Soccernomics: soccer teams who make money are the exception, not the rule. So how do professional leagues woo potential owners? There are certainly suckers out there and there are many dreamers who just want to own a sports team as a play thing. Is that enough? Maybe. If I were running NISA, I would sell them on shaping the future. I believe that will be *the* sales pitch to get successful amateur teams to make the jump; the tantalizing offer of shaping the future of American soccer and its third division. Pro/rel down the line? Sell your team for more money later? Maybe. Shaping the future? Sign me up.

For more info on running an amateur team, especially financial details, check out Dennis Crowley’s awesome posts on Stockade FC listed at the end of this piece.

Pro/Rel

Wilt and NISA have stated their desire to institute promotion and relegation into the future of the league. This would take place after the league was fully populated with 24 teams, include one club up and one down, and hopefully into a fully populated NASL and from the NPSL (with a longer season). You cannot ask a team to relegate from a league with 16 home games into a league with 6 so the NPSL would need to change how it currently operates. How pro/rel could work is a topic for a separate piece. Or you could just read Peter Wilt’s “Pro/Rel Manifesto.” Link is at the end.

Promotion and relegation is a fascinating idea, but far from a guarantee. At this point, neither NASL nor NPSL have actually signed on for eventual pro/rel. Who knows if the NASL will even exist in three or four years. However there is no doubt that the allure of pro/rel will bring some investors (speculators) who will hope to build a successful team and climb the ladder and exit (sell) later on for a much higher valuation, just like investors and entrepreneurs do in other spheres of tech and general business.

Innovation

Speaking of entrepreneurs and tech, enter Dennis Crowley. I had pleasure of meeting Dennis at a Chattanooga FC game in February. Reading his blog posts and seeing the team he has built around him and Stockade FC, it is obvious that he has brought an entrepreneurial and tech style to soccer and his “open source” approach to building a soccer team is a beautiful breath of fresh air. Here’s the million dollar question, can they get guys like Dennis, to sign on and to help shape the future of lower division soccer? Is the allure of shaping the league and future of American soccer enough? You need minds like Wilt and Crowley to innovate and push this thing forward. You need buy-in from ambitious ownership groups that can be flagships like Detroit and Chattanooga. You need a lot of pieces to make this puzzle work.

So what does it all mean?

Circling back to where we started, there is a giant void in American soccer. How that void gets filled will be fascinating. A more “closed” system like USL D3 starting in 2019? Or a more open system with NISA starting in 2018? Focusing on NISA, I think their success or failure hinges on who they get in the first round. Get the right teams, and I think it has a good shot. I think they will push very, very hard for the two biggest stories in amateur soccer, Detroit and Chattanooga. If either Detroit or Chattanooga are missing from year one, the league is already in big trouble. If they are as smart as I believe they are, they’ll throw the kitchen sink at Detroit and Chattanooga year one, and Dennis Crowley (and other innovators) in year two. The league needs excitement, the league needs leaders, and the league needs stability. Can they do it? I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

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If you liked this, part 2 is shaping up to be *waaaaay* nerdier. You’ve been warned.

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Additional reading

I haven’t cited each and every point made here, and many things have been just my ramblings and musings, but here is some reading and listening that I’d recommend and where I’ve sourced much of my info.

1 — NISA debut article with Peter Wilt

http://midfieldpress.com/2017/06/06/exclusive-the-national-independent-soccer-association-nisa-a-new-division-iii-professional-soccer-league-expects-to-launch-in-2018/

2 — Peter Wilt interview

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/soccernation/id1164173801?mt=2&i=1000386577115

3 — Peter Wilt interview

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/no-title/id467180282?mt=2&i=1000386754598

4 — Peter Wilt interview

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/2-up-front-soccer-show/id988601856?mt=2&i=1000389656770

5 — Dennis Crowley and Stockade FC

https://the-cauldron.com/so-lets-build-a-pro-soccer-team-from-scratch-69a7588bb2da

6 — Dennis Crowley and Stockade FC

https://medium.com/@dens/stockade-fc-end-of-season-recap-2016-c2e4d318b364

7 — Dennis Crowley and Stockade FC

https://medium.com/@dens/stockade-fc-in-2017-the-open-source-soccer-approach-to-creating-a-killer-second-season-5eaf30a4caa9

8 — Peter Wilt’s “Pro/Rel Manifesto”

https://www.whatahowler.com/httpswhatahowler-com201701the-u-s-promotionrelegation-manifesto-html/

9 — Soccernomics

https://www.amazon.com/Soccernomics-England-Germany-Australia-Destined/dp/1568584814