In brief

Preventive measures taken domestically and globally to stem the spread of the coronavirus will have an immense negative effect on economic growth. We expect real GDP to grow by 0.8% in 2020/21 (July-June), after registering a 2.8% contraction in 2019/20. We forecast that the ruling PTI will complete its term, ending in 2023, with the military's tacit support. Nevertheless, there will be considerable risks to political stability. Relations with India will remain strained.