india

Updated: Jun 07, 2019 00:31 IST

Meteorologists on Thursday said conditions are favourable for the onset of monsoon over Kerala by Saturday, a week after its normal onset date.

But the advancement of monsoon is likely to weaken following the onset, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. Farmers have been advised to prepare for poor rainfall in June.

Large parts of the country are parched because of below-normal pre-monsoon showers that ended in May with a 24% deficit over the long period average. LPA is the average rainfall received during monsoon months in the 1951-2000 period.

According to IMD, an east-west (change of wind direction from easterly to westerly) shear zone has formed across the Lakshadweep­-Maldives-­Comorin area, which is very likely to shift northwards gradually. “An off shore trough is very likely to also develop around June 8, off Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast. In association with these favourable conditions, Southwest Monsoon is very likely to set in over Kerala around June 8,” IMD said in its Thursday bulletin.

But June rainfall will be significantly below normal. “We are expecting normal rains only after June 20. After the onset on June 8, there will not be much progress. Rains will be delayed in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, for example. But for the entire monsoon season, we need not worry now,” said M Rajeevan Nair, secretary, ministry of earth sciences.

“Sowing should not start immediately. Farmers should prepare for the delay. Those working on water management should also plan for water rationing,” he added.

HEAT WAVE CONDITIONS

A western disturbance was to bring rain and thundershowers to Delhi-National Capital Region on Thursday but IMD officials said it likely would not as it had already caused thundershowers in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

“The maximum temperature in Delhi will hover around 42-44 degrees. High temperatures will prevail in Delhi till June 11,” said Sunita Devi, senior scientist, IMD, adding it was difficult to say when monsoon would arrive in Delhi.

“There is no one-to-one correlation between monsoon onset and monsoon advancement. It depends on synoptic conditions. A low pressure area is developing over southeast Arabian Sea, which will impact monsoon advancement. We expect monsoon to be erratic. The normal date for monsoon arrival in Delhi is June 29,” she said.