
Young people will have to 'take one for the team' and suffer through coronavirus infections to slash Australia's pandemic death toll and save the elderly, a top disease scientist says.

Epidemiology Professor Tony Blakely from the University of Melbourne said infection of the young would get Australia toward the 60 percent infection rate that conveys 'herd immunity' and negates the virus.

Prof. Blakely also said sealing off hard-hit suburbs would be effective, COVID-19 will spread at schools, the majority of us will have to contract the virus for the epidemic to finally end and 30,000 people could die - and that's the best case scenario.

Prof. Blakely also said the public deserves better information than they're getting from the government about the real impact of the pandemic.

As the country's total number of cases topped 2,363, and Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced strict new rules - even for weddings and funerals - the expert shared several home truths about what the government's apparent 'flatten the curve' response to COVID-19 will mean for the nation.

Young Australians (stock photos, left and right this week) will have to 'take one for the team' and suffer coronavirus infections in order to stop the disease from killing the elderly, a leading epidemiologist has warned. Above, a jogger and a shopper as the lockdown began this week

Sydney's 'red zones': Professor Tony Blakely says an effective option to stop the spread of the virus is by closing some of the country's hotspots. The above graphic shows most COVID-19 cases have been caught in this city's north and south-east

Why we 'need 60 per cent' of the country to catch it

The PM has been faced with two options in the battle against the virus. The first is the 'eradication' method, Prof Blakely said.

If we're wanting to flatten the curve, let's be brutal here -- we actually want young people get infected

That would see the wholesale shutdown of the country for weeks, as New Zealand has begun doing.

The second option is 'flattening the curve' - the path the Federal government appears to be forging ahead with.

That involves the gradual closure of the economy to slow down the spread of the virus until the country reaches 'herd immunity'.

Herd immunity is only achieved when 60 per cent of the population have caught the illness. Other than everyone getting sick, the only other thing that could bring that on is a vaccine.

But if we all caught the disease now and the virus was allowed to 'run feral', Prof Blakely said as many as 130,000 people could die.

But with 'flattening the curve' measures, new drug treatments and more young people getting infected than old people, 'we're down to nearly 30,000 deaths'.

Some 21,000 people in Australia die each year from tobacco related illnesses and 1,255 people died from the flu in 2017.

Young people will have to 'take one for the team'

If Australia is going to 'flatten the curve', the nation's young people will have to 'take one for the team'.

'If we're wanting to flatten the curve, let's be brutal here -- we actually want young people get infected,' Prof Blakely said.

'We actually want the young people to get infected more than the old people.

'That's not talked about - but that's actually what we want.'

The professor said if the country is going to aim for 60 per cent immunity in six to twelve months, 'we want that to happen in the least harmful way'.

Prof Blakely says experts actually need young people to get infected for 'herd immunity' - unless a vaccine comes into play. Above, a young woman shops at Dan Murphys (left) and (right) exercises in Queens Park after the country's went in lockdown

The least harmful way is for as many elderly people as possible to avoid catching the disease.

CORONAVIRUS CASES IN AUSTRALIA: 26,898 Victoria: 20,042 New South Wales: 4,200 Queensland: 1,152 Western Australia: 662 South Australia: 466 Tasmania: 230 Australian Capital Territory: 113 Northern Territory: 33 TOTAL CASES: 26,898 CURRENT ACTIVE CASES: 903 DEATHS: 849 Updated: 8.50 PM, 20 September, 2020 Advertisement

At the same time, younger people would need to have a higher infection rate.

But that has consequences.

Some young people will die.

'There is some risk,' Prof Blakely said.'

There'll still be deaths amongst 20s and 30-year-olds at the end of the epidemic, but a much lower rate.

'It's tricky. But this is what is not being talked about.'

A suburb-by-suburb lockdown would work

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has hinted that major virus hotspots could be shut down, suburb by suburb. That could be a good option, the professor said.

'It would be nearly as effective and far less disruptive (than a full scale shutdown of society),' he said.

'If you have an outbreak of cases in one area, rather than shutting all of Australia down, you could just shutdown areas where the case load is high.

Victorian hotspots: The majority of the state's cases are in 'metropolitan Melbourne', but nine are in Geelong. Health authorities in Melbourne have been less forthcoming about the exact location of outbreaks in the community

'You might get 80 or 90 per cent of the benefit by shutting down five or 10 per cent of the country.'

Sydney has seen local outbreaks in local areas, including backpackers in Bondi coming down with the illness last week.

Three people have died and 11 test positive at Macquarie Park's Dorothy Henderson aged care lodge. And 133 people from the Ruby Princess cruise ship are ill.

Health authorities in Melbourne, the country's next most affected city, are yet to share a detailed map of where the coronavirus has struck.

Meanwhile, in Queensland, multiple have been struck down with the illness after a birthday dinner at a Noosa restaurant, believed to be on March 14.

A mother drops her children off before the government advised parents to keep their kids at home for 'practical reasons'

Open schools will 'keep the virus humming along'

All schools are closed in Victoria from Tuesday and NSW is encouraging parents to keep their kids home for 'practical reasons'.

Prof Blakely said all schools would have closed immediately if the country was going down the 'eradication' method.

But if the country is 'flattening the curve', it doesn't matter if they stay open. That's why the government needs to be open with the public about what its approach is.

'(Keeping schools open) is actually a way of keeping the infection humming along at a rate that might be sustainable,' he said. 'People don't like it but that's the reality.'

He said that was part of the deal of eventually stopping the virus.

'If there is spread happening in schools ... we want them to get herd immunity. We want the people who are most resilient to get infected.'

Epidemic could drag on longer than six months

The professor's own modelling indicates the epidemic itself may drag on longer than six months.

Professor Tony Blakely, an epidemiologist from the University of Melbourne, says the public hasn't been getting enough information about the pandemic - and the government's plans to stop it

Mr Morrison has said the drastic measures will go on for 'at least' that long.

'(The model) suggests it will take longer than six months to wash through society,' Prof Blakely said, and that is if the number of infections hits 100,000 people per day.

'If we need to pull the number of infections per day to less than 100,000, it's going to take longer than six months.'

That number of infections includes about a third who would have no symptoms, and only a small number of those with symptoms would need intensive care.

The professor said the Prime Minister's advisers have better models of how the pandemic will play out than his own.

The problem is the government isn't releasing its forecasts for where the country is going to be.

He said there should be a 'COVID forecast', just like a weather forecast, on the news each night, and where experts say 'if it goes above this number, we'll do this.

'That way people actually feel as though we have some sort of control.'

Overall, the professor said he would give Mr Morrison's 'a 7.5 out of 10' for his measures over the past week, and said he was getting 'reasonably good advice'.

But the country is only just beginning to realise just how difficult these extraordinary times will be.