With election day almost upon us, we have a little time to take a short break from GOTV efforts and look at how we did in early voting.

Here are the numbers for Texas’ 15 most populous counties:

2008 2012 2016 Harris (Houston) 678,312 700,216 882,580 Dallas 477,228 415,7435 512,168 Tarrant (Ft Worth) 431,799 387,350 480,936 Bexar (San Antonio) 375,784 348,326 436,731 Travis (Austin) 282,848 222,913 357,595 Collin (DFW) 211,637 213,447 289,561 Denton 166,927 163,082 228,928 El Paso 110,132 93,558 142,453 Ft Bend (SW Houston) 148,450 153,090 201,655 Hidalgo (McAllen) 84,650 99,647 132,424 Montgomery (N Houston) 96,982 114,092 145,264 Williamson (Round Rock) 108,077 100,472 153,286 Galveston 71,600 77,762 94,088 Nueces (Corpus Christi) 62,715 56,595 67,099 Cameron (Brownsville) 39,210 42,103 61,339 Cumulative EV 3,346,351 3,188,396 4,186,107 Total Votes (ev & mail in) 3,556,156 3,407,497 4,497,431 Vote % of Registered Voters 42.03% 39.38% 46.08%

So, let’s break these numbers down a little bit.

Overall among these counties, early voting is up 31% over 2012. This, combined with record registration of 15 million statewide, would appear to be good news for Democrats.

Further good news becomes apparent when we see that among blue counties, the EV total was 2,525,290, while in the red counties it was 1,459,162. (I’m counting Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, El Paso, Hidalgo, and Cameron counties as blue, with Ft. Bend a tossup).

The good news is, however, tempered by the turnout percentages, which are 40% in the blue counties and 47% in the red counties. Turnout has been especially poor in heavily Latino El Paso and Cameron counties at 35% and 32% respectively. But it should be noted that Latinos tend to prefer voting on Election Day, and that the turnout in more Anglo blue counties includes Harris at 44%, Dallas at 43%, and Travis at 52%.

As far as the percentage increase in EV over 2012, the largest are in Travis (60%), Williamson (53%), and El Paso (52%). The increase in turnout was just about even in blue and red counties (31% and 32% respectively).

So what does all this mean? Well, it appears that, at least in the population centers, there is no lack of enthusiasm among GOP voters. But it looks like Dem voters just as enthusiastic . And it also looks like we’re going to have to really work at last-minute GOTV efforts among Latinos, which is what I’ll be doing after I finish this up. And of course GOTV among all our voters, particularly in US House District 23, where we have a very good chance of picking up a seat, and District 1, where our chances are much smaller but better than zero.

So, in summary, EV turnout in Texas has been very good, up substantially from 2012. While high turnout usually favors Democrats, there has been high turnout in traditional GOP counties, and the Latino turnout has been disappointing so far. With about 54% of registered voters having not been to the polls yet, GOTV is, as always, critical.

In less than 48 hours we’ll know how this all plays out. In the meantime, if you’ll excuse me, I’ve got some phone calls to make...