Former minister says more MPs would vote no confidence in government than may admit it

Conservatives stepped up warnings on Monday that a Boris Johnson premiership could lead to the collapse of the government if the leadership frontrunner attempts to pursue no deal.

One former Tory minister said he believed there were many more Tory MPs who would be prepared to take that step than those who would publicly admit it. “I do think at least 10 would vote to bring down the government if the government was taking us into no deal,” the MP said.

“Politicians don’t like to admit that they take this view in public, they like to hedge their bets a bit, but that has been my view for a long time.”

Tobias Ellwood, the defence minister, said he believed at least a dozen Conservative MPs could be forced into voting against the government.

Asked if the Conservatives who felt so strongly against no deal had the numbers, Ellwood told the BBC: “I believe that absolutely is the case. I think a dozen or so members of parliament would be on our side, would be voting against supporting a no deal and that would include ministers as well as backbenchers.”

Ellwood later denied he would be among those MPs prepared to vote against the government in a confidence vote.

“I simply state the huge long-term dangers of no deal to our economy, security, reputation, the Union and our Party,” he tweeted. “I simply forecast there are some who will do all to stop this. Let’s avoid this scenario: leave with a workable deal.”

His statement was retweeted by the Conservative MP Antoinette Sandbach, who is among those who has rebelled over giving parliament a meaningful vote on the deal, as well as efforts to halt no deal.

The Tory MP Guto Bebb, a backer of the pro-referendum People’s Vote campaign, also said he believed there were enough Conservative MPs prepared to stop no deal.

“If a Conservative leader seriously tried to carry out such a policy, they would face almost certain humiliation in parliament, deepen the sense of crisis and paralysis in the country and widen the divisions inside our party,” he said.

“Enough Conservative MPs will put country ahead of party to stop no deal. When that happens we may end up facing an election which no serious Conservative wants.”

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The former Tory chancellor Ken Clarke, who along with Dominic Grieve has publicly said he would vote against a Conservative government to stop no deal, said: “If it is heading for a no deal simply because the government has not got around to doing anything then yes I think I would.

“I’m a lifelong Conservative, that means I’m pro-business, I’m in favour of free markets, I’m in favour of free trade and I think all those should be combined with a strong social conscience because I’m a one nation Conservative. It might trigger an election, it might trigger a change of government without an election under the law we now have.”

Johnson’s opponent, Jeremy Hunt, said the warnings were another reason why he needed to stand up and face scrutiny over how he would avoid such a scenario.

“In that situation, is he [Johnson] going to have an election in order to get a majority in parliament for a no-deal Brexit?” he said. “I think Conservative party members need to know the answer to those questions.”

MPs are also understood to be concerned that new recess dates, set to be confirmed on Monday for the week that the new prime minister takes office, would mean no party or coalition would have a chance to form a government if a confidence vote were lost.

Under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, parties have up to 14 days to prove they can form an alternative government to command the confidence of the House of Commons. The new prime minister is set to take office either on 22 or 23 July, with parliament set to rise for recess on 24 July.

“In the middle of what might be a major crisis, parliament could be absent because it has agreed to be adjourned,” one MP said. “I don’t feel comfortable with that at all.”

Pro-second referendum candidates have previously floated the possibility of forming a “unity government” within the 14-day period if a Tory administration lost a confidence vote.

Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leadership candidate, has said his party would support such an endeavour to form a government with the sole purpose of delivering a new referendum. “Liberal Democrats will do all we can to save the country from a Johnson premiership and to stop Brexit,” he said.

“Johnson could very soon find himself without a majority, and I’m working night and day to secure an emergency national government to deliver a people’s vote.”