Romania presidential elections 2019: Exit polls shows incumbent president first followed by former PM, USR leader third, without Diaspora vote

Round two exit poll results can be found here.

Update 2: Partial results after the counting of 91% of the ballots confirm the exit poll results, showing an even wider difference between second and third place. Incumbent president Klaus Iohannis will thus run against former PM Viorica Dancila in the second round.

Update 1: The exit poll carried out by IRES shows incumbent president Klaus Iohannis on first place with an estimated score of 38.7%, followed by former PM Viorica Dancila – 22%, and USR leader Dan Barna - 16.1%. Actor Mircea Diaconu has a score of 8.2% in the IRES survey, followed by Theodor Paleologu - 5.6%, and Kelemen Hunor - 4.6%.

The exit poll carried out by CURS/Avangarde also shows Klaus Iohannis first, with a score of 39%, Viorica Dancila second, with 22.5%, and Dan Barna third – 16.4%. Actor Mircea Diaconu is fourth, with 7.9%, followed by Theodor Paleologu - 6.1%, and Kelemen Hunor - 3.9%.

The exit poll results are valid for 20:00 and don't take into account the massive Diaspora vote. While the vote ended in Romania, it continues in Western Europe and America.

Over 8.68 million people voted in Romania in the first round of the presidential elections, representing 47.66% of the total number of people registered to vote. Thus, the difference of 6 percentage points between Viorica Dancila and Dan Barna translates into about 520,000 votes, a difference that is difficult to cover by the Diaspora vote, where most of the 660,000 votes were likely split between Barna and Iohannis. (Who did the Romanians in Diaspora vote for?)

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The partial results of the first exit polls carried out on the day of the presidential elections in Romania will be released at 21:00, when the voting ends in the country. Two research agencies have carried out exit polls: IRES and CURS/Avangarde.

These exit polls are likely to show the incumbent president in the lead, with a comfortable margin and tight results between second and third places, probably held by former prime minister Viorica Dancila (Social Democratic Party - PSD) and Dan Barna (Save Romania Union – USR).

Usually, the exit poll results come with a delay of one-two hours. Thus, the final exit poll results will likely be available later in the evening.

Moreover, the exit polls only reflect the votes in the country, not those abroad as well. Thus, the actual results of the elections could differ from those of the exit polls, given the record number of Romanians who voters abroad (over 600,000 at 19:00).

The name of the candidate who will join Klaus Iohannis in the second round could thus be known for sure on Monday, November 11.

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