

Last week, US President Donald Trump accused Jews who vote Democrat of showing “either total lack of knowledge or great disloyalty.” This week, a senior scientist with Gallup aggregated a number of polls and interviews to show that despite Trump’s commentary, Jews in the US are highly likely to identify as Democrats, to vote for Democratic candidates and to express views that are highly loyal to Israel.

“There is little evidence of a change in these trends, or that this situation creates the kind of Jewish cognitive dissonance that Trump asserts should be the case,” wrote Frank Newport in a report released Tuesday.



Newport aggregated surveys conducted by Gallup between February and December 2017, the same year that Trump took office. The polls show that 68% of Jews identified as Democratic, or as independents who leaned toward the Democratic Party, back then. At the same time, only 28% of Jews identified or leaned Republican.



In 2018, the numbers were slightly lower for Democratic at 59% versus 36% for Republican. But, so far this year, using an aggregated sample of Gallup polls conducted from January through August 2019, 65% of Jews identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party versus 30% Republican.



Trump has no doubt, through both rhetoric and action, shown support for the Jewish state. He moved the US Embassy from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv, recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights, pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – unofficially known as the Iran deal – and approved a $3.3 billion military aid package to Israel, among other moves.



But his latest comments were the first time he has drawn a connection between his support of Israel and the Jewish vote. “If you vote for a Democrat, you’re being very disloyal to Jewish people and you’re being very disloyal to Israel,” he said.



This should be important to Jews, as data show that the American Jewish community, despite recent rhetoric, has a favorable view of Israel. A March 2019 Gallup poll found that the overwhelming majority of Jews were more sympathetic to Israel than the Palestinians. Additionally, said the recent report, 95% of Jews have favorable views of Israel.



“Presumably, American Jews are aware of Trump’s actions, and the data clearly show that Jews have strongly positive views of Israel,” wrote Newport. “Nevertheless, Trump’s actions in support of Israel to date have done little to shift Jews’ political allegiance.”

Gallup’s aggregated data from January through August of 2019 showed a 29% Trump job approval rating among Jews, with 69% disapproval. Over this same period, Trump’s overall job approval rating was 42%.



And, of course, exit polls from the 2016 election showed that of the 3% of voters who identified their religion as Jewish, 71% voted for Clinton and 23% for Trump.



Newport noted that Gallup’s ongoing estimates show that about 2% of American adults – and up to 2.2% – identify their religion as Jewish. As such, “Even if Trump were to succeed in bringing more Jews over to the Republican side of the political ledger... the Jewish vote is not likely to make a huge difference in the presidential election.”