During the campaign, Trump was all about staying away from Syrian involvement. The only thing that we have learned for certain about Trump is that if he promises something, he may do it or he may not. And if he promises not to do something, he may not do it or he may. He will describe either outcome as proof of his resolve. Reversing his campaign promise in this case is therefore, of course, more Trump resolve.

Trump’s personality profile of attacking people just possibly could have been taken as a predictor of military activity. Who could imagine Trump checking out the arsenal at his fingertips without wondering how long it would take such a volatile person to deploy some of it? In fact, one of the more memorable questions he reportedly asked during the campaign was when he was thinking about nuclear weapons: “If we have them, why can’t we use them?” Remember this question when assessing Trump’s newfound professed concern about suffering babies.

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But the most reliable predictor of Trump’s eventual turn to warfare is that eventually he would need it politically. Any review of his candidacy, his program, his personality and his political friends was enough to know that at some point he would run into severe governing trouble. And it doesn’t take a genius (or even a self-described very smart guy!) to realize that the way to galvanize the public behind you in a pinch is warfare. It was as certain with Trump as snow in winter used to be.

The political problem for Trump here is timing. I used to think Trump would wait until nearer an election, 2020 or 2018 at least, to open the bomb bay. Did his absolute reversal of position on Syria have anything whatsoever to do with the political catastrophe that his dystopian administration became right out of the gate? I will leave that assessment to observers as cynical as Trump.

But the trouble with contemporary military engagement is that nobody surrenders anymore. The fight goes on and on and on, and that aspect is no longer good politics. It is all quagmire now, and no V-E Day. It is far easier to get into escalating warfare than it is to get out, a lesson Americans have been learning over and over and over.