The takeaway from this exercise is three-fold: 1) if this political environment persists, the Dems have a solid shot of re-taking the House; 2) keep a close eye on the “generic ballot” which is the strongest predictor of actual performance, adjusted for gerrymandering effects (anything north of a +6 Dem lead in the generic ballot will likely put the House in play); and 3) at the end of the day, elections are still won and lost based on the popularity of incumbents (and whether they choose to run again – 24 GOP reps are not, versus only 14 Dems so far), the strength of the challengers and the effectiveness of their campaigns. Don’t take any of that for granted. If the Dems want to re-take the House, they have to replicate what they have done in the high-profile New Jersey, Virginia and Alabama wins in 2017, and bring that same level of talent, resource, commitment and energy to a national scale in 2018.