The familiar Washington narrative on the scrum for the U.S. Senate has been rinsed, recycled and delivered once again: Republicans are primed to pick up the six seats necessary to capture control of the upper chamber. The midterm atmosphere sure looks ripe, the polling appears favorable but, as it did in 2010 and 2012, the most competitive batch of races will likely come down to candidate quality. It’s the key component that stifled GOP chances before, and could very well again. This is the first installment of U.S. News & World Report’s Senate 7 – a rolling monthly summary of the seven hottest races in the country and who’s winning them. If the election were held today, the GOP looks well-positioned for pickups in West Virginia, South Dakota and Arkansas but the party could very well turnover Kentucky. A closer look at the most competitive contests demonstrates why a Senate majority in 2014 is again no slam dunk for a Republican Party that remains at war with itself. [READ: Kentucky Senate Showdown Gets Hotter]

Alison Lundergan Grimes

Timothy D. Easley/AP

1. KENTUCKY – The polls in the marquee Senate race of the year are deadlocked but every day that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell isn’t ahead of Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, it’s a win for the fresh-faced challenger. Grimes has already tapped into her family’s close relationship with the Clintons, drawing former President Bill Clinton to Louisville this week to help frame the choice and fill her campaign coffers. A visit by Hillary Clinton seems close to inevitable down the road. Bluegrass State voters don’t like McConnell – just a third approve of the job he’s been doing for 30 years – so the question is whether he and outside forces can make Grimes an unacceptable alternative by branding her a liberal lackey of President Barack Obama. This, of course, assumes McConnell disposes of another nagging distraction: His May primary opponent, Matt Bevin. In an interview with The Washington Post, Sen. Rand Paul, who has endorsed McConnell, wouldn’t even say his colleague would survive the challenge from the right. “We’ll see what happens over time,” he replied.

Who Won February: Grimes

Latest Poll: Grimes 46 percent, McConnell 42 percent (Courier-Journal/SurveyUSA, Jan. 30-Feb. 3, 1,082 registered voters)

Rep. Tom Cotton, R-Ark. Danny Johnston/AP

2. ARKANSAS – No incumbent is more vulnerable than Sen. Mark Pryor, the sole Democrat in the state’s congressional delegation. Outside conservative groups have declared him a top target for 2014, and it’s already draining his campaign account. Another disadvantage for Pryor: Unlike in other races across the country, the GOP establishment and conservative wings are wholly united behind Rep. Tom Cotton, a veteran and Ivy League graduate. Cotton’s playbook is straightforward so far – tie Pryor to Obama and the Affordable Care Act. It seems to be working. GOP group Americans for Prosperity launched its first attack against Pryor this month in the form of a three-week blitz. Pryor’s hit back was attacking Cotton on Medicare and a vote against the farm bill, but those issues haven’t proven to be trump cards yet in a state where Obama’s popularity lies in the basement. Pryor consistently trails in polling.

Who Won February: Cotton

Latest Poll: Cotton 45 percent, Pryor 40 percent (Rasmussen Reports, Feb. 4-5, 500 likely voters)

North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis Gerry Broome/AP

3. NORTH CAROLINA – Here’s another example of a crowded GOP primary field waging an ideological battle for a shot at the very vulnerable Sen. Kay Hagan. Thom Tillis, the speaker of the North Carolina state house, maintains a slight polling lead over his GOP rivals, including the Rand Paul-endorsed Greg Brannon. But the complex primary issue matrix is already on display: This week, Tillis came out forcefully against a minimum wage hike, which he called an “artificial threshold.” The move might help him win credibility among the far right, but raising the minimum wage remains popular among the general election voter pool and may mobilize Democrats to get to the polls. But Hagan, who has consistently lagged behind Tillis in surveys, has endured nagging questions about Obamacare. During one recent encounter with media, an aide instructed her to “keep walking.”

Who Won February: Draw

Latest Primary Poll: Tillis 20 percent, Brannon 13 percent, Heather Grant 13 percent, Ted Alexander 10 percent, Mark Harris 8 percent (Public Policy Polling, Feb. 6-9, 305 likely voters)

Rep. Bill Cassidy, R-La.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

4. LOUISIANA – There’s a possibility Senate control won’t be decided until after Thanksgiving, because of the unique election law in the Pelican State that forces a Dec. 6 runoff if no candidate crosses the 50 percent mark in November. The four-candidate field – three Republicans and Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu – could ensure a protracted fight. With $4.2 million cash on hand, Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy has more money in the bank than some incumbents, making him an acute threat to a fourth Landrieu term. Though a reliably conservative vote in the House, he’s not pure enough for outside groups like the Senate Conservatives Fund and The Family Research Council’s Tony Perkins. That dynamic could hamstring Cassidy, a low-key physician, if either tea partier Rob Maness or state Rep. Paul Hollis gains traction. But he's fortunate not to have to face the smaller, more conservative electorate that rule primaries.

Who Won February: Cassidy

Latest Poll: Landrieu 45 percent, Cassidy 44 percent (Public Policy Polling, Feb. 6-9, 635 registered voters)

Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska

Alex Wong/Getty Images

5. ALASKA – Another state, another fight for the soul of the GOP in a primary. The triangular drama is concentrated between two more establishment candidates, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell and former Bush appointee Dan Sullivan and wild card Joe Miller, the tea party candidate who won the 2010 GOP Senate primary and then lost statewide to Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, who ran as a write-in candidate. Even worse for Republicans: The primary season is long, culminating in late August. Sen. Mark Begich is in better shape than Pryor, Hagan or Landrieu and if Miller can carve out another win, he’ll be in an even better position to secure a second term.

Who Won February: Begich

Latest Primary Poll: Sullivan 30 percent, Treadwell 25 percent, Miller 20 percent (Public Policy Polling, Jan. 30-Feb. 1,442 primary voters)

Michelle Nunn Kevin Wolf/AP Images for A Billion + Change

6. GEORGIA – If Republicans wake up Nov. 5 just short of a majority, the primary race that’s percolating in the Peach State now could be the reason. A seven-way scrum for the nomination – including three congressmen, former Susan G. Komen executive Karen Handel and Fortune 500 CEO David Perdue – will likely last through the end of July with a runoff. And there’s really no clear leader. The Republican establishment nightmare? If Rep. Paul Broun – the most unapologetically ideological and sharp-tongued of the lot – is one of the last two standing. “I think the one who has the clearest path, the best chance of making a runoff is Paul Broun,” says Todd Rehm, an unaffiliated Georgia-based GOP consultant who runs the Georgia Pundit website. The donor class, on the other hand, appear to be gravitating to Rep. Jack Kingston, whose fundraising prowess has allowed him to get on television already with a bio spot. But the biggest impact of the muddled primary has been allowing Democrat Michelle Nunn to garner favorable press, stockpile millions and tact to the center. “She is going to be a competitive candidate,” says GOP strategist Joel McElhannon, who is not working on any of the campaigns.

Who Won February: Nunn

Latest Primary Poll: Rep. Phil Gingrey 19 percent, Karen Handel 14 percent, Rep. Paul Broun 13 percent, Rep. Jack Kingston 11 percent, David Perdue 8 percent (The Polling Company Inc., Jan. 31-Feb. 1,600 likely voters)

Rep. Cory Gardner, R-Colo.

David Zalubowski/AP

7. COLORADO – Rep. Cory Gardner’s pending entrance into the Colorado Senate race is the best news the National Republican Senatorial Committee received all month. The deal involving 2010 nominee Ken Buck to get out of the race to make way for a rising star who carries less baggage may look unseemly for a moment, but the transaction won’t matter much to voters in the end. Given Sen. Mark Udall’s middling approval ratings and the deteriorating atmosphere in the Centennial State for Democrats, Gardner gives the GOP hopes to elevate Colorado into a top-tier slugfest, if he can soothe over bruised feelings from the primary shuffling.

Who Won February: Gardner

No recent public polling



