February was #Buidl month at SwissBorg. While we travelled less and attended fewer gatherings, we focused all our energy on the upcoming launch of our Community App in March. Our head of communication Alex Fazel is busy in London producing the first episodes of his 4k vlog series, networking and preparing for the launch of our first app. Our data analyst Bastien Muster wrote an insightful article on the problem with using traditional valuation models for evaluating digital assets. Bastien has also prepared a monthly bitcoin analysis which will be published here every month for the benefit of enthusiasts and community members.

Our website incorporating our new brand identity went live this month and was received with enthusiasm. The SwissBorg website will house our tech and legal blogs plus a new educational series and help centre that aims to raise awareness among those new to the crypto and blockchain space. Our founders, Cyrus Fazel and Anthony Lesoismier are reviving our Youtube channel with a series of vlogs aimed at promoting our app and our vision of the future of finance.

In the coming weeks, we are launching our Community app, visit our website and subscribe to get notified!

New Utility and The Investment App: CHSB Token Valuation

By Bastien Muster

One of the most, or arguably, THE most damaging criticism coming from the off-chain world is related to the actual valuation of crypto assets. Reputable names such as Warren Buffet, Robert Shiller, and Charles Munger have used harsh words, like “rat poison squared”, to proclaim that crypto assets have zero value.

Surprisingly enough, the companies with the highest market capitalisation, such as the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Alphabet), also did not initially fit the past and present valuation models once they emerged but are now generating massive profits.

For the general public and off-chain investors, below are the most common models or tools to value a company and/or its stock price, Dividend Discount Model, Discounted Cash flow model, P/E ratio.

The above valuation models don’t really apply to most blockchain companies due to the fact that their underlying tokens are not linked to profits or offer dividends. This application of old models to crypto companies is the primary cause of concern and the reason behind the harshest criticism from traditional investors who tend to insist that crypto assets have zero intrinsic value. Read more here.

MONTHLY BITCOIN ANALYSIS (MBA)

by Bastien Muster

February 2019

Disclaimer: The information on the Bitcoin Analysis is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended to be distributed or used by residents of any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our Bitcoin Analysis is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our Bitcoin Analysis are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our Analysis (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

Copyright © 2019 SwissBorg, All rights reserved.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Key technical indicators and observations.

BTC/USD (daily): Price, 20-days moving average, RSI(14) and volume. (Source: tradingview.com)

After trading sideways for two weeks between $3,350 and $3,450 with low volumes, Bitcoin tested the $3,300 support level.

If this level did not hold, there was a significant risk that the price would drop to the previous low of $3,150.

On February 8th, the SEC commissioner declared that the highly anticipated Bitcoin ETF will be “eventually” approved. This announcement triggered a bullish movement that quickly pushed the price above $3,600.

After a period of consolidation, the market, driven by Ethereum, had a bullish momentum that had not been seen for several months. We must go back to July 2018 to see an RSI (14) as overbought as it was in mid-February.

The price reached the resistance level of $4,150 where it reversed quickly to the $3,800 area.

What we could expect for the future?

If the price is consolidating at the current level, it is likely that the 4,150$ will be tested again in the mid-term and the probability of triggering a bullish trend will increase if this level breaks. On the contrary, if the level does not hold, it is possible to see a relatively fast fall to $3,500.

Glossary

Moving Average (MA): Trend-following indicator derived from the simple average of the prices on a given time period (for example 20 days).

RSI: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures the magnitude and the velocity of price movements. It is deduced from the ratio between positive and negative price changes in a given period of time. This momentum oscillator, measured on a scale from 0 to 100, indicates if the asset is overbought or oversold (usually, an RSI > 70% will indicate an overbought period while an RSI < 30% will indicate an oversold period).

Support/Resistance: Levels where the prices will tend to stop and could probably reverse its trend. A support level will likely tend to stop the prices dropping while resistance is a level where the selling pressure is higher and will likely stop the price rising. Once a support or resistance level are reached, the price will bounce back or breakthrough the level and continue his actual trend.