Putin also surely understands that reform is the moment of greatest vulnerability for a Russian leader (just ask Mikhail Gorbachev). And Putin’s intent is always to maintain control, as recent prosecutions attest.

Putin went from being a largely non-ideological technocrat in his first two terms to being to a staunch conservative nationalist, sacrificing political pluralism and economic diversity. His third-term policy choices have narrowed his options.

At the top of his fourth term “to do” list is finding the money to keep the ship of state afloat. Putin has been plagued by revenue shortfalls, largely due to the continuing economic sanctions by the U.S. and EU and the dramatic drop in oil prices. He attempted to cajole offshore money home by offering an amnesty and tried taxing foreign companies owned by Russian citizens. Nothing worked.

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So he has recently pursued more creative ways of raising money, most notably by demanding that state-owned companies pay 50 percent of their profits in dividends. This money largely finds its way back to the state treasury.

Putin could, of course, get lucky: The price of oil and other raw materials could rise. But for the immediate future, Russia faces low growth, declining foreign investment, permanent U.S. sanctions, high military expenditures and an aging population that expects state support. Balancing these core economic and social concerns — and their related constituencies — remains a high-wire act that is bound to occupy Putin’s time and attention.

The most challenging political issue confronting Putin’s fourth term will also be a hangover from his current one: corruption. It has proved the one issue that galvanizes the Russian people into protest.