Update: after widening by 2bps earlier, Malaysia CDS is now +4 at 167bps and starting to move as macro "analysts" finally catch up on the entire story and comprehend the implications.

* * *

Malaysian CDS rose to near 3-month highs and the Ringgit has spiked over 300 pips - back near recent lows - after the Malaysian slushfund government investment fund 1MDB is reportedly in default. This is exactly the scenario we laid out last week that initially sent the currency lower and CDS higher, as the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund has by all appearances started a potential waterfall default on Malaysian sovereign debt (due to cross-default triggers at the sovereign).

As we reported one week ago, Malaysia government investment fund was put into default by the Intl Petroleum Investment Co. Moments ago, the 5 day grace period on the missed $50.3 million payment on the TIAMK 5.75% 2022s privately placed by 1MDB Energy (Langat) expired, and as Bloomberg reported, 1MDB is now officially in default after missing its interest payment.

The big question now is - as SocGen explores - Given the default of 1MDB, Could a Malaysian Sovereign Default Occur?

While we await confirmation of whether the missed $50.3m on the TIAMK 5.75% 2022s privately placed by 1MDB Energy (Langat) has been made good as we approach the end of the five-day grace period today (25 April 2016), wire service reports (e.g. Bloomberg) indicate that 1MDB has met with holders of the Malaysian Ringgit (or MYR) SUKUK bonds which were issued by the 1MDB to “seek waivers from triggering cross default”.

We understand that the dispute over the non-payment of the missed $50.3m coupon which was originally due on 18 April 2016 relates to the now widely reported dispute between the two guarantee providers on the 5.75% TIAMK 2022 bonds – namely 1MDB and Abu Dhabi’s International Petroleum Investment Corporation (or IPIC). The dispute relates to the alleged non-conformance of terms to a ‘side’ agreement between the two parties made in May/June 2015 in relation to IPIC assumin the obligations on the $3.5bn of 1MDB bonds issued in 2012, including the TIAMK 2022s (both the 5.75% TIAMK 2022s – which were privately placed – and the 5.99% TIAMK 2022 public bonds).

We understand that the latest “waivers from triggering cross default” were sought by holders of MYR 5bn of SUKUK bonds issued by 1MDB and which carry an explicit guarantee by the Government of Malaysia (or GoM). The MYR SUKUKs were presumably issued by 1MDB’s predecessor, the “Terengganu Investment Authority Berhad” (or TIA) in May 2009, prior to the name change to 1MDB in September 2009 following its takeover by the federal government. We understand that the MYR SUKUKs were issued in eight tranches of 5.75% 30-year paper of between MYR600m and MYR650m for MYR5bn in total – they will mature in May 2039. The language of the explicit guarantee states that a default will occur (and possibly cross-default) when (among other things): “... the Issuer fails to or makes default in the payment of any amount (whether principal, profit or any other amount) due from it under the IMTN [i.e. the SUKUK bonds] or any of the other transaction documents on the due date (whether formally demanded or not) or on demand ...”. We believe the waiver sought from the holders of the MYR SUKUK issue could be to avoid triggers on the GoM’s other debt/liabilities.

It is also worth keeping in mind the following disclosures made by the GoM in the Supplement (dated 19 April 2016) to their Offering Circular (dated 11 April 2016) for the dual-tranche $2bn of USD SUKUK bonds (10-year and 30-year) that was issued last week:

“As at the date of this Supplement, this dispute [i.e. between 1MDB and IPIC] concerning the obligations of 1MDB and IPIC under the IPIC Term Sheet] has yet to be resolved. If the interest payments under the 2022 Notes are not made on or before April 25, 2016, it would constitute an event of default thereunder, which could result in acceleration of the 2022 Notes and could result in cross-defaults or cross-acceleration of other indebtedness of 1MDB by the relevant creditors (emphasis ours). The total principal amount of such other relevant indebtedness of 1MDB which could become due and payable as a result of the foregoing, and to which the Government is potentially exposed by way of guarantees for such debt is RM5.8 billion [USD1.48bn equiv.]. In addition, the Government is potentially liable for up to U.S.$3.0 billion in principal, plus interest, under its letter of support as set out above [namely the OGIMK 2023s]. If 1MDB were unable to make such payments as they become due, the Government does not believe that any amounts that it would be required to pay with respect to the indebtedness of 1MDB would be material to the Government.”

Should the $50.3m coupon for the 5.75% TIAMK 2022s remain unpaid after today, we would think (although details are unavailable) the coupon would need to be paid within ten days of the bond trustees invoking the bond guarantee after receipt of the 75% quorum. In the meantime, the non-payment of the missed coupon is especially credit negative for the IPIC bond complex, especially given the existence of cross-default language in the IPIC bond complex which we understand (based on reports e.g. The Edge) could total some $16bn of the company’s bond debt.

As for the 1MDB bond complex, despite the lack of cross-default language with regards to the the 4.22% OGIMK 2023s and the 5.99% TAIMK 2022, the presence of the “explicit” guarantee by the GoM in relation to the MYR SUKUK bonds could risk cross-default triggers at the sovereign. We note that 5-year MALAY CDS are currently indicated at 162 (vs ~155 as at the end of last week). The 4.22% OGIMK (which carry a Letter of Support from the GoM) were last indicated (on Bloomberg at 89.5 /91.00 (or at Z+469 bp), with the 5.99% TIAMK 2022s at 99.125 100.50 (or at Z+463 bp).