The current ratings

We’re back for the final installment of my down-ballot executive row office ratings series. Today we look at state treasurers, which a handful of states have elections for. So without further ado, let’s jump right in:

Safe D: CA, IA, IL, MA, RI, VT

These are very blue states (except Iowa). They are not competitive (including Iowa because they have a super longtime incumbent). The end.

Likely D: CT

Connecticut: Open (Nappier)

Democrat Denise Nappier is not running for re-election as Connecticut’s Treasurer, which leaves some exposure in a state where Democrats aren’t too popular at the state level. Still, as can be gleaned from looking at the gubernatorial election, it seems like this is simply not the year for Republicans to have a breakthrough in a blue state like CT, even with all the animosity towards Governor Dan Malloy (D). Which makes the Democratic nominee for this office, Shawn Wooden, a solid favorite over GOP nominee Thad Gray.

Lean D: WI

Wisconsin: Open (Adamczyk)

This is a largely meaningless office in the State of Wisconsin, so much so that there was a referendum earlier this year to abolish the office of State Treasurer. That referendum failed with 60% in opposition and one of the key leaders behind the “no” movement was Sarah Godlewski. The 36 year-old Eau Claire native naturally then became a candidate for the office in the fall election, winning the Democratic nomination in August. Given that the winds are blowing at the backs of the Democrats in Wisconsin and that the GOP doesn’t care much about this office, Godlewski looks like a favorite to win, which puts this seat as a favored R → D flip.

Tossup: CO, DE, FL, NV, OH

Colorado: Open (Stapleton)

State Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R) is running for Governor, which leaves the office in CO up for grabs. Given that Colorado is a slightly left of center state in a D midterm, this is a golden opportunity for Democrats to gain a seat. To do so, they have picked State Rep. Dave Young as their candidate, while Republicans are defending the vulnerable office with businessman Brian Watson. We have very little polling on Colorado this cycle so it’s hard to say what’s going on and I’d have to venture to guess that this race tilts D, but I’m leaving it in tossup for now.

Delaware: Ken Simpler

The Treasurer and Auditor offices are the two statewide offices that Republicans hold in Delaware. Longtime Auditor incumbent Thomas Wagner is retiring and Democrats are favored to gain that seat, which means GOP Treasurer Ken Simpler is the last statewide firewall for Republicans in the First State. Despite Delaware’s blue hue, Simpler is not an easy out, as he was the first non-incumbent Republican to win a statewide office in 20 years when he did it in 2014. That said, 2014 was a friendly GOP year, which complicates his path to re-election. He won by just 7 points in 2014, and the switch in national environments alone wipes out that edge and then some. However, he will have incumbency on his side in his battle with Colleen Davis, a health care professional. This is a tossup.

Florida: Jimmy Patronis

The Sunshine State calls their Treasurer the State “CFO” and it features incumbent Jimmy Patronis running in 2018. However, it is not technically a “re-election” bid because Patronis was appointed to the position by Governor Rick Scott last year. Thus, he has only a soft incumbency behind him and is vulnerable to challenge from Democrats. That refers to Jeremy Ring in particular, a former State Senator. Like most statewide elections in Florida, this will probably tight, and polls indicate that it will be so, albeit with high undecideds at this stage. There’s no rating that makes sense other than tossup.

Nevada: Open (Schwartz)

Incumbent GOP Treasurer Dan Schwartz decided to run for Governor, a decision that ended rather poorly for him. This leaves the Treasurer position wide open in November and drew solid candidates on both sides. Democrats have Las Vegas businessman Zach Conine in the race, while former Las Vegas City Councilman and man-with-terrific-name Bob Beers is the GOP nominee. We have no polling here so we just have to go off of the fundamentals, which point to a tossup.

Ohio: Open (Mandel)

Josh Mandel is term-limited out as Ohio’s Treasurer in 2018, which means it’s anyone’s office for the taking. Ohio is probably the #1 state to watch in terms of statewide row officers, with competitive elections for every single office and Treasurer is just another one of those. Republicans are running Robert Sprague, a State Rep., while Democrats are running Rob Richardson Jr., former Chair of U of Cincinnati Board of Trustees. In terms of candidate quality, it’s probably a small GOP edge but it’s a close enough race to deem a tossup.

Lean R: AZ, KS

Arizona: Open (Klein)

This is another open seat race, this time out in the Valley of the Sun. Republicans have nominated State Senator Kimberly Yee for the race, while Democrats have nominated attorney Mike Manoil. Arizona is still a red-leaning state, even if it may be becoming more swingy, and that gives Yee some advantages in her quest to keep the State Treasurer’s office in her party’s hands. Manoil seems like a viable enough candidate to put this in tossup, but right now, Yee has enough of an edge to call it Lean R.

Kansas: Jake LaTurner

The State of Kansas has been similar to Connecticut in that it is a state dominated by one party, yet the state-level version of that party is rather unpopular. LaTurner is an appointed incumbent Treasurer (formerly a State Senator) which doesn’t give him much incumbency help, but his state’s fundamentals are on his side. Why is this race in play? Well besides those state-level pro-D dynamics, he’s facing a rather legitimate challenge in the form of State Senator Marci Francisco. LaTurner is the favorite entering Election Day, but a surprise would not shock me here.

Likely R: IN

Indiana: Kelly Mitchell

Indiana is a red state and winning statewide is difficult as a Democrat, even in a year like 2018. This is why Indiana’s Treasurer race lands in Likely R, as local legislator John Aguilera (D) faces a very uphill climb in his quest to unseat incumbent Republican Kelly Mitchell. Mitchell won by 21 points in 2014, which was a pretty typical performance for a GOPer in a state like Indiana in a pro-GOP year as 2014 was. She’s a replacement level incumbent, which means the fundamentals are on her side so long as she has the R next to her name and its why this race lands here.

Safe R: AL, AR, ID, NE, OK, SC, SD, WY

These are all blood red states with uncompetitive elections.

Conclusion

Democrats have a real opportunity to gain some seats. As mentioned, Wisconsin is a projected flip and with no seats in any type of danger, a realistic projection for these seats are D+1-6, depending on how well Team Blue does in the key races.