Ontario’s Progressive Conservative government has convened an expert panel to consider potential changes to the Yonge North and Scarborough subway extension projects, including the possibility of building portions of the lines above ground and reducing the number of planned stations, the Star has learned.

Although the panel has yet to make its recommendations, its mandate appears to open the door to building new rail lines above ground in Toronto’s suburbs. That would mark a drastic departure for Premier Doug Ford, who during his time as a Toronto city councillor joined with his brother, then mayor Rob Ford, to oppose surface rail lines, claiming suburban riders “deserve” underground subways.

According to a six-page confidential document obtained by the Star that details the 13-member panel’s mandate, Metrolinx and Infrastructure Ontario have assembled “a team of expert advisers with Canadian and international experience ... to perform an independent review of TTC plans” for the two politically loaded subway projects, in order “to assess, critique and advise on (their) technical and commercial deliverability.”

The document, dated July 29, states the panel may “consider and evaluate potential alternatives” to existing plans for the two extensions to determine whether changes could “deliver the benefits (of the transit projects) in a faster time frame, at less cost.”

Options the panel is expected to consider include “adding or removing stations,” “changing or removing bus terminals,” and “alternate horizontal and vertical alignments.”

The panel will also be tasked with reviewing the Toronto Transit Commission’s estimates for project operating and capital costs, exploring the potential for third-party development to be integrated with subway construction, and determining whether the projects could be procured using public-private partnerships.

Metrolinx spokesperson Amanda Ferguson wouldn’t clarify the document’s reference to “alternate horizontal and vertical alignments,” but didn’t rule out the possibility the panel could recommend building sections of the rail lines above ground and along different routes than currently planned. Metrolinx is the provincial Crown corporation responsibile for transit planning in the Greater Toronto region.

“The third-party review is part of the due diligence we are undertaking as we move forward in building vital transit for the region,” Ferguson said in an email. She described the purpose of the exercise as guaranteeing the projects “are delivering maximum benefits for least cost.”

In an interview, Markham Mayor Frank Scarpitti, a vocal supporter of the Yonge North extension, said the province hadn’t told him about the expert panel, but he had expected Queen’s Park to perform a review of transit plans as part of its upload of the subway network.

He said he supports the review if it speeds up building transit in his city, but suggested he would oppose any attempt to remove stations from the Yonge extension or to build the line with any transit technology other than a subway.

“Fundamentally it’s a subway, fundamentally it’s the six station-subway, and fundamentally there cannot be a delay to the delivery of this subway to York Region,” he said.

Toronto Councillor Michael Thompson (Ward 21, Scarborough Centre) also said he supported a review as long as it doesn’t delay construction of the Scarborough project. But he predicted that plans to build the extension above ground would be met with opposition.

“I recall discussion when Mayor (Rob) Ford was around, where people were saying, look, I don’t want to see the train. I want to see it going underground. And I think that appetite is still very strong,” he said.

Councillor Josh Matlow (Ward 12, Toronto—St. Paul’s) said the review was further evidence the city should return to plans to build a seven-stop surface LRT in Scarborough.

Council scrapped that proposal in 2013 and replaced it with the more expensive subway option that would serve fewer riders, a move supported by then councillor Doug Ford. Matlow, a strong opponent of the subway plan, noted that if council had proceeded with the LRT it would have opened this year.

“But rather than get it built, city and provincial governments have constantly changed plans to build a subway, ending up with many years of delays, fewer stations and costing far more tax dollars. It’s time for our government to finally do the right thing and move forward with an honest and evidence-based transit plan that puts people before politics,” the councillor said.

The TTC, along with the city of Toronto and York Region, has led planning for the two extensions for years, but in June the Ontario PC government passed legislation enabling the province to take over the projects. The government has said it intends to introduce legislation in 2020 to take ownership of the existing subway network.

The two subway extensions are contentious but have strong local political support and are key parts of the $28.5-billion transit expansion plan Premier Ford announced in April.

The Yonge North extension would extend the TTC’s Line 1 (Yonge-University-Spadina) to Richmond Hill Centre. Current plans call for a 7.4-kilometre line with up to six stations, four of them within York Region and another on the Steeles Ave. border with Toronto. According to estimates published by the province in April, the line would cost $5.6 billion and would be complete soon after 2027.

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The Scarborough project would replace the Scarborough RT and push the TTC’s Line 2 (Bloor-Danforth) north and east from its existing terminus at Kennedy station.

Premier Ford had already pledged to make changes to approved plans for the Scarborough subway extension by adding two stations, effectively reverting to the earlier plan city council turfed in 2016 in favour of a less expensive single-stop extension to the Scarborough Town Centre.

Ford’s government has estimated the three-stop version, with additional stations at Lawrence Ave. E. and Sheppard Ave. E., would cost $5.5 billion and open before 2030.

The current iterations of the extensions have undergone years of study. An environmental assessment for the Yonge North project was completed in 2009, and it has reached the 15 per cent design stage, according to the TTC. The one-stop Scarborough extension had reached about 50 to 60 per cent design and was ready to go to procurement before the premier’s intervention effectively pulled the plug on that process.

Ford’s government had not publicly suggested major changes to Yonge North. However, two sources with knowledge of discussions between the province and local governments told the Star that Metrolinx has floated the idea of deleting planned stations in York Region.

Ferguson declined to answer specific questions about removing stations from the project, or whether Metrolinx still stands by previously published cost and schedule estimates for the two extensions.

According to the confidential document, the panel’s final report is due by the end of September. Ferguson declined to say whether it will be made public, but its recommendations are expected to be included in business cases for the projects that Metrolinx will publish. Ferguson couldn’t immediately provide a budget for the review.

Among the panel’s members are Simon Lane, a former executive with Singapore’s SBS Transit; Fernando Canales, the CEO of engineering consultants TYPSA Inc.; and five officials from the Altus Group, a Toronto-based commercial real estate services and software company.

TTC spokesperson Stuart Green said the transit agency “was not involved in the panel’s establishment or the development of their scope of work,” but its staff has presented the province with information about the two projects and followup meetings are planned.

Mayor John Tory’s spokesperson Don Peat declined to answer specific questions about the panel, including when or if the province informed the mayor about it. But Peat reiterated that Tory’s “priority is that no projects are delayed.”

In a written statement, York Region Chair and CEO Wayne Emmerson said the province and Metrolinx shared their plans for the review with him in July. He said “the Yonge Subway Extension remains the No. 1 transit priority for York Regional Council” and “we applaud the province’s commitment to get shovels in the ground and get this critical subway built.”

The potential design changes the panel is considering for the Yonge North and Scarborough extensions echo modifications the province has already made to the relief line subway. The TTC and city planned to build that 7.4-kilometre subway line entirely below ground, but in April Ford announced the province would replace it with the Ontario Line, a 15.5-kilometre, $10.9-billion line that would run above ground for portions of its route and use smaller train technology than the TTC’s current fleet.

Ben Spurr is a Toronto-based reporter covering transportation. Reach him by email at bspurr@thestar.ca or follow him on Twitter: @BenSpurr

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