Well it is time for college football to truly start this weekend. Without further ado, here are my week one previews. If you are looking for a specific game, they are listed in order of start time and date. The point spreads and over/under marks are as of when I wrote that game’s preview.

Boise State at Florida State

Betting Line: Florida State -6.5

Over/Under: 54

Analysis:

Boise State finished last season with a 10-3 record. While 10 wins is always good, they suffered a disappointing loss in the Mountain West Championship game and had their bowl game cancelled so they could not end on a good note. On offense, the face of Boise State’s team has recently been quarterback Brett Rypien. With Rypien gone, (after I am pretty sure that he was there for about 29 years) the Broncos will turn a new leaf. They have decided to be a bit bold and go with true freshman Hank Bachmeier as the starting quarterback for this game. Bachmeier was a blue chip recruit, but it will still be tough for him to play his college debut against a solid team and storied program on the road. The Broncos will need to find good play at running back. Alexander Mattison was their starter last season and has since left for the NFL. Mattison was a true workhorse, averaging 23 carries per game, leaving few other backs on Boise State’s roster with true experience. Robert Mahone looks to be the new starter but Andrew Van Buren will get some looks as well. If Boise State can use the ground game to ease Bachmeier into things, it will make the offense go more smoothly and make passing easier on Bachmeier with play action. Thankfully, the Broncos return every starter on the offensive line from last season, which will help out a young quarterback and the new blood at running back. If Boise State wants to have offensive success, they will need to establish the run game early. On defense, the Broncos need to play aggressively up front. Florida State running back Cam Akers is very good at fighting through tackles and not going down on first contact. If they can swarm Florida State’s offensive line, it will make things easy on the Broncos. Boise State boasts a solid secondary led by cornerback Avery Williams and safety Kekoa Nawahine. If they can do well in coverage, Florida State will also have a hard time. Boise State is also trotting out a new punter and kicker this season. They both will likely be called upon in big moments with some pressure. They can not flounder in those moments.

Florida State is coming off of their first losing season since 1976. The program was under a lot of disarray last season but still has a lot of talent on their roster. At quarterback, the Seminoles will start James Blackman after he won the quarterback battle over Alex Hornibrook. Blackman is a solid quarterback, but will need his offensive line to protect him. Florida State’s offensive line faced some injuries last season and often looked like they were held together by duct tape. While he has put on some weight, Blackman still has a skinnier build and can not afford to be hit constantly. Blackman will need to be at least a bit protected. Florida State also needs some receivers to step up against a stout Boise State secondary. Tamorrion Terry looks to be the best receiver the Seminoles have and he will be someone to look to. It will also be nice if Cam Akers and the ground game can develop. Akers could have been a standout running back last season if his line blocked well for him. That can still work but the offensive line can not force him to constantly have to fight with tacklers. If the offensive line can hold up, Florida State should be fine on offense. Defensively, Florida State has a prime opportunity. With Boise State starting a true freshman at quarterback, it will likely be easy for the Seminoles to rattle him if they can get pressure. Edge rushers Leonard Warner and Janarius Robinson can really impact the game if they do well. Florida State also has a very talented secondary with cornerbacks Asante Samuel Jr. and Stanford Samuels and safety Hamsah Nasirildeen. They already should lock down Boise State’s receivers but if they can get a pass rush too, they can make this game tortuous for Boise State’s new quarterback.

Prediction:

Florida State’s talent is just too much as they win 27-17 and cover the spread.

Alabama vs Duke

Betting Line: Alabama -34.5

Over/Under: 58

Analysis:

Up until the National Championship game, Alabama looked borderline unbeatable as they won every regular season game by over 20 points. While they were blown out by Clemson, Alabama was and is an elite team. Tua Tagovailoa will probably be the first overall pick in the draft next spring. If Tagovailoa can get going again on Saturday, Alabama’s offense can be borderline unstoppable. If Alabama can get the passing game going with Tagovailoa and receivers Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle, and Henry Ruggs, it will be a wrap. One source of mild concern for Alabama is that Najee Harris and Brian Robinson, the first two running back on their depth chart, will be suspended for the first half, as will starting receiver DeVonta Smith and starting linebacker Terrell Lewis. This leaves Jerome Ford, the third string running back for the Crimson Tide, to take the brunt of the carries. For the first half, Ford needs to at least do decently enough to keep Duke’s defense honest. If the offensive line can block well for Ford, it should also be no problem. On defense, even more tough news came out for Alabama as linebacker and reigning leading tackler Dylan Moses fore his ACL in practice this week. This leaves Markail Benton as the likely starter. If Alabama can stop the run, their defense should be in good shape. If they can also put pressure on a fairly inexperienced quarterback, it could cripple Duke’s offense.

Duke put up a solid 8-5 season in 2018. This offseason, the Blue Devils have had to make a lot of changes on offense with players graduating. Quentin Harris will be taking the reigns as starting quarterback. While he has started before, facing Alabama will be a whole different beast. Harris will need to be calm and poised in the pocket of the Blue Devils want to move the ball at all through the air. The offensive line also needs to hold their blocks well and not allow Alabama to make very many big plays. Tackles Robert Kraeling and Jaylen Miller will need to block the edge well. Running back Deon Jackson is Duke’s best skill position talent and he will need to do well also. On defense, they need to bring pressure on Tua Tagovailoa. If they can bait him into making quick throws, Duke could throw off Alabama’s offensive rhythm. Duke also needs to do well in coverage as Alabama is loaded with talent at receiver. Mark Gilbert and Leonard Johnson need to be sound in coverage and not get walked over by Alabama’s receiving corps. Duke also needs to be solid in special teams. Winning the field position battle can go a long way. While I think a near miracle needs to happen for Duke to win this game, I think they can keep things interesting for a bit if they can have a diverse offensive attack and put pressure on Tagovailoa.

Prediction:

Alabama is just too much for Duke as they win 52-14. Alabama wins and covers the spread.

Northwestern at Stanford

Betting Line: Stanford -6

Over/Under: 47.5

Analysis:

Northwestern had a pretty strong season in 2018 as they went 9-5 and won their first division title in the Big 10. While Northwestern is trotting out a new quarterback, I do not have a ton of concern about early jitters. Hunter Johnson was the top ranked quarterback in the recruiting class of 2017 (ranked higher than Tua Tagovailoa and Jake Fromm) and I think will do quite well for the Wildcats. He had all of last fall and spring to learn the offense as well. I believe he will do well, but he also will have some pressure on him to do so in this game. If he can play well, Northwestern has a much better chance of winning this game. The Wildcats have a solid ground game with Isaiah Bowser, which will also help them out. What they need is for their mostly new look offensive line to not have any early struggles. If the offensive line does not hold up very well, it will put all of the weight on Johnson. I think good offensive line play is the key to this game for the offense. Receivers also need to get open and create separation against a good Stanford secondary and very good cornerback in Paulson Adebo. On defense, they need to be able to at least compete against Stanford’s offensive line. Stanford has always had a great offensive line under David Shaw and this season will be no different. Defensive ends Joe Gaziano and Samdup Miller will be matched up with two very good tackles, Gaziano especially as he will be going against Walker Little often. If they can hold their own in these matchups, it will be a big help for Northwestern. The Wildcats will be using two new starters at defensive tackle and they can not let Stanford pound the ball inside either. While they have a great middle linebacker in Paddy Fisher, he can not do all of the work. Northwestern’s defense is something I am less worried about, but they need to not get run on easily in this game. Defending the pass, the Wildcats need to be able to stop Stanford tight end Colby Parkinson especially in the red zone. The safeties and outside linebackers on this team will need to not get outmuscled for catches by the 6’7” Parkinson.

Stanford fought through many injuries last season and ended up going a solid 9-4 on the season. Stanford has a solid quarterback in KJ Costello who really proved himself last season. What Costello does need is good offensive line play and time to throw. Costello goes through his progressions at quarterback very well but needs the time to do so. Stanford also will have some new faces at receiver and will need one of them to step up. They have a solid group of receivers but none of them have proven themselves to be a go to guy. If one of the receivers can emerge, it will really help Stanford’s offense out. Colby Parkinson will need a good game at tight end. Parkinson will be a great security blanket and check-down option for Stanford. On defense, they should be focused on stopping the run. Northwestern has leaned on the run game mostly in the last few years. If they can slow that down, it will put Northwestern in a tough spot. While Northwestern does have a solid quarterback in Hunter Johnson, he is not going to be good enough to win the game on his own. If Paulson Adebo and Obi Eboh can stay sharp in coverage as well, it is going to be extremely hard for Northwestern to get anywhere on offense.

Prediction:

Stanford wins a very hard nosed game 21-17. I expect the Cardinal to figure things out more on offense, but for Northwestern to cover the spread.

Auburn vs Oregon

Betting Line: Oregon -3.5

Over/Under: 56

Analysis:

Auburn had a bit of a rocky season in 2018 as they finished 8-5. The Tigers announced this week that true freshman Bo Nix will start at quarterback. Nix was a five-star recruit, but will be thrust into a pretty tough game. Like I have said with all new quarterbacks, their offensive line needs to protect them and their team needs to be able to run the ball well.This does not bode well considering Auburn often struggled to run the ball since they had an inept offensive line last season. The good news is that Auburn does look to have improved in both regards. They return all five starters on the offensive line and they return JaTarvious Whitlow at running back. If Whitlow and Kam Martin can establish the run game, Nix can get eased into things and the offense can work well. Oregon has a solid secondary and Auburn’s receivers also need to get open. Seth Williams can be a good possession receiver and he will need to make contested grabs. Anthony Schwartz is lightning quick and also will be relied upon to blow the top off Oregon’s defense. If Nix can just be protected and the run game develops, Auburn will be alright offensively. On defense, there will be a bit of a clash of titans between Auburn’s defensive line and Oregon’s offensive line. Auburn’s star studded defensive line with Derrick Brown, Nick Coe, and Marlon Davidson need to come out on top in that battle, especially against a run heavy team like Oregon. I believe the winner of this battle will win the game. Auburn’s secondary also needs to be ready for Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert to test them and launch some balls their way. While Oregon runs the ball often, Herbert can torch Auburn’s secondary if they are not careful.

Oregon finished 2018 with a 9-4 record and looks poised for a run this season with who they have back. On offense, Oregon has the best offensive line unit in the country but will play against an outstanding Auburn defensive line. I think Center Jake Hanson and guards Dallas Warmack and Calvin Thockmorton will all at some point have the task of blocking defensive tackle Derrick Brown. They will need to hold their own against Brown especially since Oregon relies on the run game. The line and running backs CJ Verdell and Travis Dye will also need to have good games for Oregon to establish their offense. Quarterback Justin Herbert has a very strong arm and will also need to be more accurate. Oregon also needs a receiver to step up as they lose Dillon Mitchell who was their clear go to guy last season. If the offensive line outdoes Auburn’s defensive front, they will be in great position to win this game. On defense, the Ducks need to try and cause discomfort with Auburn’s true freshman quarterback. Where Oregon can take advantage of this is by being stout in coverage with Deommodore Lenoir and Thomas Graham. Having good pass coverage is very attainable and will go a long way for the Ducks.

Prediction:

Oregon wins a knockdown drag-out game 21-20 but Auburn covers the spread.

Louisiana Tech at Texas

Betting Line: Texas -20.5

Over/Under: 55

Analysis:

Louisiana Tech went 8-5 last season which was their fifth straight winning season. On offense, the Bulldogs return J’Mar Smith at quarterback. Smith struggles some with accuracy but is not afraid to air it out. One way I think Louisiana Tech can make things interesting is to run the ball well against Texas’s new look defensive front. The offensive line and running back Jaqwis Dancy will have to do well in order for that to work. The Bulldogs also have another opportunity to test Texas with a talented receiving corps led by Adrian Hardy and TCU transfer Isaiah Graham. If they can be a threat to Texas’s defense, the Bulldogs could keep this interesting. On defense, they will need to put pressure on Sam Ehlinger. Jaylon Ferguson is gone at defensive end after having 17.5 sacks and 26 tackles for loss last season, as is the rest of their starting defensive line from last season. The newcomers on the defensive line will need to step up. The Bulldogs have some experience in the secondary with cornerback Michael Sam and safety L’Jarius Sneed. The secondary will need to not get burned by a loaded group of Texas receivers.

Texas had some low moments last season but also came up big in times and had a 10-4 record, their first 10 win season since 2009. At quarterback, Texas has one of the best players in the country in Sam Ehlinger. Ehlinger has a great arm and is a great runner. He has started to draw comparisons to Tim Tebow and I believe those to be apt. While Louisiana Tech has a solid group of cornerbacks, I believe Ehlinger and receiver Collin Johnson can dice through the Bulldogs’ defense. On defense, Louisiana Tech has a solid group of receivers and Texas needs to be stout in coverage. While I think Texas should blow out Louisiana Tech, they can be in for a game if they are not careful. While Texas often overlooks games like these, I am inclined to believe they will not this time around after former Louisiana Tech quarterback andNFL hall of famer Terry Bradshaw called Ehlinger an average quarterback and Louisiana Tech safety L’Jarius Sneed said Texas receiver’s could not handle press coverage.

Prediction:

Texas actually does not overlook this game and wins 38-10.

Fresno State at USC

Betting Line: USC -13.5

Over/Under: 52.5

Analysis:

Fresno State had a very good 2018 season. The Bulldogs went 12-2, won the Mountain West, and beat Arizona State in the Las Vegas Bowl. The Bulldogs has a great season, but will have move on from many key contributors. The Bulldogs have a new quarterback in Jorge Reyna. Reyna has seen limited action in his career. What he will need is for running back Ronnie Rivers to play well. Rivers is one of just three returning starters on Fresno State’s offense. Rivers and Jordan Mims can be a big help to Reyna if they play well at running back. Tight end Jared Price is another player that could help Reyna out a lot. On defense, the Bulldogs lose both outside linebackers and some key players in the secondary. Middle linebacker Mykal Walker will be the best player on this defense and needs to show out in this game. USC has a slew of talented receivers, and Fresno State also needs to be stout in coverage. Cornerbacks Jaron Bryant and Chris Gaston need to step up. If Fresno State can have tight coverage, it will put a lot of ease on their defense.

USC is coming off of a 5-7 season that was a bit rough to endure. With the hiring of Graham Harrell at offensive coordinator, it looks as though USC wants to make some changes. JT Daniels is back at quarterback for the Trojans and will look to improve upon his freshman season. Where USC’s offense really thrives is at receiver. The Trojans have quite a bit of top quality talent with Michael Pittman, Tyler Vaughns, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. If the group of receivers can do their thing, USC will be moving the ball quickly and often. The one concern on offense for the Trojans is their offensive line which struggled last season. While many fans blame it on poor coaching, I do not think that is the sole cause for poor play. Fresno State does not have a deadly defensive line, but they can prey on a weak offensive line if USC does not improve their play. On defense, if they can stop the run and make a new starting quarterback beat them, USC will be in prime position to win. Jay Tufele, Christian Rector and USC’s defensive line will need to do well as will their linebackers in order to stop the run game.

Prediction:

I said I thought Fresno State would win this game in an earlier article I wrote. I feel obligated to uphold that. Give me the Bulldogs to win outright 24-21. There is no way (which means it will probably happen) USC covers 13.5 points. Also there is no doubt that the announcers for this game will constantly talk about Fresno State players wanting to play well in front of their dream school that did not recruit them, and also there will be plenty of highlights shown from the 2005 matchup between these two teams.

Houston at Oklahoma

Betting Line: Oklahoma-23

Over/Under: 79.5

Analysis:

Houston had a bit of a disappointing 8-5 season in 2018. While eight wins seems fine, the Cougars expect to be at the top of the AAC and have not been doing that the last couple of season. This disappointment was evidenced by their firing of Major Applewhite after he was at Houston for just two seasons and hiring on Dana Holgorsen away from West Virginia. The Cougars have one of the most electrifying quarterbacks in the country in D’Eriq King. King had a shortened season in 2018 due to injuries but he still threw for just shy of 3,000 yards and 36 touchdowns while running for 674 more yards and 14 touchdowns. King will need to run wild in this game for Houston to compete. Oklahoma has an experienced secondary and Houston’s receivers will also need a good game in order for the offense to keep up with Oklahoma’s. On defense, the Cougars return just four starts from a unit that already struggled. Their best hope is to try and generate turnovers against a lethal Oklahoma offense. If they can win the turnover battle, Houston will be put into a much better situation to compete and maybe even win.

Oklahoma had a strong season in 2018 as they won the Big 12 and made the playoff. While they lost to Alabama, it was a solid season for the Sooners. Oklahoma will be rolling out yet another transfer at quarterback in Jalen Hurts. Hurts has struggled at really pushing the ball down the field but can run it very well and is accurate from short. If Hurts eliminates the growing pains of a new system, which I believe he will, this offense will be tough to stop. The new look offensive line Oklahoma is sporting also needs to protect Hurts, which I believe they will. Oklahoma needs to protect the ball and not let Houston get the ball in good field position. On defense, the Sooners can not let D’Eriq King just run free. I find it likely Oklahoma will have a player spy King for most of the game. If that player can do his job or if the defense can just not allow quarterback runs easily, Oklahoma should be able to win this game with no sweat.

Prediction:

Houston keeps things interesting for awhile but falls 55-34 and covers the spread.

To be notified when I post, follow my Instagram @impassionedpsortsnerd. Last week, I was 2-0 against the spread.

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