The beginning of the year was not just bad for the United States economy; it was — on paper at least — the worst quarter since the last recession ended five years ago.

The Commerce Department revised its estimates of first-quarter gross domestic product to show that overall economic activity contracted at a 2.9 percent annual rate, much bleaker than the previous estimate of a 1 percent decline. A combination of shrinking business inventories, terrible winter weather in much of the country and a surprise contraction in health care spending drove the first-quarter fall, which was the worst since the first quarter of 2009, when the economy shrank at a 5.4 percent rate.

What makes the sharply negative number all the more stunning is that it did not feel like an economic contraction at all in the first quarter. Employers kept adding jobs at a reasonably healthy pace. Many measures of business activity and consumer confidence were stable.

Moreover, forecasters are expecting a healthy pop of growth in the second quarter, which ends next week. That was underscored by a separate data release Wednesday showing orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft — a proxy for investment by businesses apart from the most volatile sector — rose a healthy 0.7 percent. That was enough for consulting firm Macroeconomic Advisers to increase its forecast for second quarter growth to 3.5 percent, from 3.3 percent.