In 2000 the CIA’s national intelligence council made a series of pessimistic predictions about Africa. They suggested that sub-saharan Africa would become “less important to the international economy” by 2015; that African democracy had gone “as far as it could go”; and that technological advances would “not have a substantial positive impact on the African economies.”



Clearly, predictions don’t always come true.

Between 2000 and 2012, the number of mobile connections in Africa grew by 44%. In 2011, mobile operators and their associated businesses in Africa has a “direct economic impact” of $32bn, and payed $12bn in taxes. It made up 4.4% of sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP, according to a 2012 report.

But the advances in communications are not the only element defining Africa’s future:

Smartphones

Around 20% of mobile users are now using smartphones in Africa, but companies are determined to get more – if not all – subscribers using them.

Data is addictive

Mobile and tech companies know that data is addictive. Facebook has a very ambitious plan to get everyone in the world, all seven billion of us, online by partnering with mobile companies to offer consumers bits of internet content for free, knowing that they will be willing to pay for more in the future. A bit like a drug dealer giving you your first hit for free.



Also, smartphones mean data, and data means money. MTN Nigeria, a service provider, reported that it yields 3.5 times more revenue from smartphone users, a trend reported amongst other mobile companies.

In 2012 data accounted for 14.3% of mobile service revenues in Africa, but by 2018 this figure is set to double. One conservative prediction published in 2014 suggests there will be 334 million African smartphone connections by 2017, some 30% of the continent’s population.



The Nokia 215 Photograph: Nokia

One of the barriers still facing smartphone use is the price: Huawei’s $100 Ideos smartphone was heralded as the long-awaited entry point into data for the cheaper end of the market. It was a bestseller in Kenya. But Microsoft has now taken it even lower, just two weeks ago unveiling the Nokia 215, a smartphone retailing at just $29.



Drones

Drones are big in tech right now, having crossed over from mostly military usage to consumer-geared unmanned aircraft. However, companies don’t yet seem to really know what people will want to use them for yet.

A spectral version of the Liverpool and Manchester railway

The most immediate and obvious application for drones in the African context is security, presenting a powerful tool for surveillance, and for tracking police or army soldiers as they move in hostile territory.



Banditry is a big problem in many of Africa’s remote pastoralist areas, where police are often forced operate virtually incommunicado. Perhaps drones could have helped prevent the deaths of the 21 police officers who were killed in November last year while pursuing cattle rustlers in the Turkana region in Kenya. Just two years before, 60 officers were killed in a similar case.

Other potential uses have also been suggested. JM Ledgard, a novelist and the director of the Future Africa Initiative at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology wrote in Wired about the “radical” but “possible” plan to use drones to ship cargo around Africa, circumventing the continent’s often ineffective infrastructure.

An Italian-made surveillance drone belonging to the UN’s peacekeeping mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Photograph: Stringer/AFP/Getty Images

This ambitious plan now seems like it will become a reality, as the world’s first commercial cargo drone route is to be operational by 2016. Running 80 kilometres connecting towns and villages, the drones will be capable of carrying small payloads such as units of blood to feed shortages in hospitals across the region. But there is suggestion that the route could quickly evolve to managing larger and heavier craft, “a spectral version of the Liverpool and Manchester railway,” says Ledgard.

Telemedicine and smart fabrics

According to the World Health Organisation, sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 24% of the global burden of disease, but only 3% of the world’s health workforce.

Robotics are being used to slow the Ebola outbreak in West Africa

The poor health infrastructure – and high mobile phone usage – offers an opportunity for technology to bridge this gap, although at the moment, the uptake of telemedicine – the combination of telecommunication and IT to provide clinical care from a distance – remains low.



You might think it’s because of technical issues, such as low bandwidth or poorly qualified staff, but a study has shown that one of the greatest barriers to the adoption of technology in hospitals is that they often add extra steps into the routine clinical workflow, adding a burden to already overworked doctors and nurses.

Still, robotics are being used to slow the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. In Monrovia, a robot created by Vecna Technologies using a two-way communication system – basically an iPad on wheels – enabled doctors to assess incoming patients without physically examining them, reducing potential infections in healthcare workers.

But there’s more. Smart fabrics are currently under development, in which electronic chips are woven into the fabric of clothing enabling doctors to monitor the vital signs of the wearer, such as blood pressure, temperature and pulse rate, and even wirelessly dispatch this information to your doctor.

New technologies are enabling health care workers and doctors to make diagnoses without physical contact, reducing potential infections. Photograph: Baz Ratner/Reuters

Smart fabrics could play an important role in the treatment of non-communicable diseases, which are set to become a much bigger problem in Africa, according to WHO. By 2020, it is predicted that diseases like cancer and diabetes will account for seven out of every 10 deaths, compared with less than half today.

Artificial intelligence and the “e-sangoma”

Imagine this: a computer programme that collects everything a person has ever said on the internet, and every public correspondence available, and uses this data to construct a model of the user: word choice, style, sense of humour, everything.

Simulate a conversation with the ancestors

This kind of “chatbot” artificial intelligence is already being developed, and its creators think that it can be used to simulate conversation with a loved one who has passed away. Granted, this is the creepy stuff of Charlie Brooker’s fictional TV series Black Mirror, but who knows, maybe an enterprising African sangoma (otherwise known as a shaman, or less politely, a witchdoctor) somewhere will use it to simulate a conversation with the ancestors.



This article originally appeared in Mail & Guardian Africa.