Source:

March 27, 2004 00:58 IST

The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance is expected to get a majority in the coming Lok Sabha election, according to an opinion poll conducted for NDTV and Indian Express by A C Nielson.



The poll forecast the NDA to bag around 287 to 307 seats against the Congress-led alliance, which is expected to secure around 143 to 163 seats.

The survey, claimed to be the largest-ever opinion poll, covered a sample of 45,000 people in 207 constituencies, 80 per cent of them in rural areas.

Showing a complete sweep for the BJP in the western region, the survey gave the saffron party a total of 190 to 210 seats in the country and the Congress 95 to 105 seats with others accounting for 90 to 100 seats.

In the western region, the survey gave 27 seats to the BJP in Maharashtra and 20 to the Congress, besides one to others. In Madhya Pradesh it said the BJP would secure 26 of the 29 seats and the Congress the remaining three.

In Chhattisgarh, the BJP was projected to get all the 11 Lok Sabha seats, while in Rajasthan the BJP was given 23 of the 25 seats and the Congress two.

In Gujarat, where Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Deputy Prime Minister Lal Kishenchand Advani were shown to have the highest 'feel good' vote, the BJP was far ahead with 24 of the 26 seats with the Congress way behind at two.

In the southern region, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-Congress alliance was projected to win 34 seats, a gain of 21 seats, while the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam was pegged at five seats, down 21, with Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa recording the lowest rating in the country.

In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front was shown to get 14 seats despite Chief Minister A K Antony recording a 27 per cent rating. The Left Democratic Front was pegged at six.

Karnataka presented an interesting picture with the BJP doing well in the Lok Sabha election and the Congress doing well in the assembly election.

In Andhra Pradesh, the Telugu Desam Party and the BJP together were projected to get 34 seats, followed by the Congress and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi getting seven and others one.

In the eastern region, the Left front was shown as getting 34 seats in West Bengal and Congress three, while the Trinamool Congress-BJP was shown as getting five seats.

In Assam, the survey said that Congress would secure seven seats, BJP four and others three, while in Orissa Biju Janata Dal-BJP was given 19 seats and Congress only two.

In Bihar the BJP-Janata Dal-United combine was predicted to win 26 of the 40 seats followed by the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led alliance bagging 13 and others one. In Jharkhand the BJP was given six seats and Congress-Jharkhand Mukti Morcha combine bagging seven, four more than they had won last time, with others getting just one.

In the northern region, the Congress was poised to get seven seats in Punjab and the Shiromani Akali Dal six. In Haryana the Congress was shown to wrest six seats. The BJP and the Indian National Lok Dal would share the remaining four seats.

In Delhi, where the BJP had won all the seven Lok Sabha seats last time, the Congress was poised to wrest five leaving two for the saffron party.

In Uttar Pradesh both the Samajwadi Party and the BJP were predicted to bag 32 seats each, while the Bahujan Samaj Party was shown to get 11 and the Congress five.

The survey put BJP's overall share in the NDA at 70 per cent, ten per cent more than last time, and allies at 30 per cent.

Commenting on the survey report, senior BJP leader Pramod Mahajan said that this time BJP was looking forward to cross the 200 mark.

"It will give stability to NDA and power to us," he said.

Senior Congress leader Kapil Sibal, on the other hand, said he was 'surprised' over the party's showing in Karnataka and Bihar and added that opinion polls could not be totally correct.