In a clear pitch to disaffected country voters, Mr Latham, who is vying for a seat in the NSW upper house, described his party as an alternative "for people neglected by the Sydney-centric major parties". "After huge swings in the Orange and Wagga Wagga by-elections, it is clear country people feel neglected by the Berejiklian Government," Mr Latham, who became leader of NSW One Nation last month, said. While One Nation is not expected to win any lower house seats, the government fears the party will wreak havoc in regional areas by cannibalising the National Party's primary vote and exposing even safe seats to the threat of a strong challenger. "All National seats are under threat from One Nation and the Shooters, but the best they can deliver is Labor or an independent," a government source said. "The biggest threat in the world for us is a strong independent." One Nation would not confirm how many seats it planned to contest at the March election, with a spokeswoman noting only that the party was "currently in the process of preselection across the whole state".

Loading Last week, Mr Latham and federal party leader Pauline Hanson posted a video on social media, urging supporters to register their interest in becoming One Nation candidates. In order to secure the quota needed to elect at least Mr Latham, if not additional candidates, to the upper house and cement One Nation as a credible force in NSW politics, the party will need to field as many lower house candidates as possible, and have volunteers handing out how-to-vote cards across as many booths as possible. The One Nation spokeswoman rejected speculation the party had struck a preference deal with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, but said One Nation "remains open to discussions with like-minded parties". "People own their vote in NSW and we will be encouraging them to vote for minor parties and independents rather than the two tired old parties," the spokeswoman said.

Labor candidate for Lismore Janelle Saffin. The state's North Coast is shaping up as a key election battleground. There, the National seats of Lismore and Tweed, and the Greens-held seat of Ballina, are all in play. In Lismore, the Nationals will lose the benefit of incumbency with MP Thomas George retiring on a margin of 2.9 per cent. An interesting three-way race is expected there, with Labor and the Greens both fielding high profile candidates in former federal Labor MP Janelle Saffin and former chief executive of the Environmental Defenders Office Sue Higginson. But beyond these marginal seats, government strategists hold concerns for a number of traditionally safe regional seats where the impact of minor parties, coupled with the retirement of the local member, has heightened the threat of a challenge from an independent.

These include the Liberal-held seat of Albury on the Victorian border and the National seats of Barwon and Dubbo in Western NSW. Internal National Party polling leaked to the media in October showed One Nation polling at 11 per cent in Barwon. One Liberal MP described Albury as being surrounded by "an independent culture in that part of the world". In the neighbouring electorate of Wagga Wagga, independent Joe McGirr was elected off the back of a 28 per cent swing against the Liberal Party in the October byelection. On the other side of the border, the Victorian electorate of Benambra – which sits entirely inside independent federal MP Cathy McGowan's electorate – narrowly avoided falling into independent hands at the recent Victorian state election. Lake Macquarie's Greg Piper says it's difficult to run a successful campaign as an independent. Credit:David Stewart

Lake Macquarie MP Greg Piper, currently the longest-serving independent in the NSW Parliament, said independents were usually only successful if they had established a profile in the electorate prior to running. "While this election seems like fertile ground [for independents], it won't necessarily work out that way in the end," Mr Piper said. “It's actually very hard to run a campaign and get elected as an independent." The battle for Sydney As the Berejiklian government confronts the prospect of minority government, Coalition strategists conceded that a number of seats will be very difficult to hold at the March election. In metropolitan Sydney, the electorates of Coogee, in the eastern suburbs, and East Hills in western Sydney, are considered the most precarious Liberal seats, while the Nationals-held seat of Upper Hunter is regarded as "very dicey".

Bruce Notley-Smith's Coogee seat is under threat. "The demography in Coogee is pretty progressive. No one really expects us to hold it," a Liberal source said. "East Hills is hard but possible. Coogee is hard and not really possible." Labor sources said they were "bullish" about their chances of unseating Coogee MP Bruce Notley-Smith, who is clinging to a 2.9 per cent margin. "Whatever you think about the Coalition government, they haven't done much on the small 'L' issues that resonate in an electorate like Coogee," one Labor MP said. They point to the fact the seat was held by Labor for 37 years before it turned Liberal at the 2011 election rout, which saw Labor wiped from government in a landslide.

Labor sources also downplayed the potential negative impact of the harassment scandal that triggered the resignation of Opposition leader Luke Foley in November. Rather, they expected to see a benefit from switching to new leader Michael Daley, who holds the neighbouring seat of Maroubra. "Daley is from the eastern suburbs. He is better known in the area than Foley was," one Labor source said. East Hills, an historically Labor electorate, is regarded by the opposition as a "must win" seat, and will require only a small swing to demolish the razor slim margin of 0.4 per cent. Incumbent Liberal MP Glenn Brookes is retiring and the party is yet to preselect his replacement. In the Upper Hunter, the local Nationals branches re-endorsed embattled MP Michael Johnsen, despite concerns within the wider party about his performance as a local member and negative media coverage of his financial battle with the family of his former business partner. Labor expects to see a benefit in the selection of new leader Michael Daley. Credit:AAP