“I see no reason these governments are going to willingly take significant steps by themselves to open their systems and hand power to someone else, be it a parliament or whomever,” said David Roberts, director of the Qatar office of the Royal United Services Institute, a research group based in London.

The crackdown began in 2011 after the start of the Arab uprisings. There were no protests in the Emirates, and in March 2011 the government announced $1.6 billion in infrastructure projects for less developed areas, widely seen as part of an effort to avert discontent.

That month, more than 130 activists, including academics and a few dozen Islah members, submitted a petition to the ruling sheiks calling for Parliament, controlled by the sheiks, to be freely elected and given full legislative powers. A month later, five prominent activists and government critics, most of whom had not signed the petition, were arrested and tried on charges of insulting the rulers. All got prison terms but were pardoned the next day.

The most prominent, Ahmed Mansoor, says that since then he has been beaten up twice, his car has been stolen and about $140,000 has disappeared from his personal bank account. He accuses the government of trying to intimidate him and says it refuses to return his passport. The government has not commented on his case, but says it uses legal means to uphold stability.

In mid-2011, the crackdown turned to Islah, which had operated legally in the country since 1974. In 1994, its headquarters in Dubai were shut down, so the group’s leaders moved here to Ras al Khaymah.

But starting in 2011, seven of its members were stripped of citizenship and scores were arrested, many held incommunicado for months without charge, according to Human Rights Watch and family members. The government dismantled the group, changing its name and appointing a new board.