Posted on Sep 25, 2008 in Barack Obama, Campaign '08

Poll Position: WTF is Up With the Numbers Lately?

A quick look at today’s polls at Real Clear Politics reveal numbers going in every direction for both candidates. While some polls have Senator Obama leading in the 4-6 point range, others have the race tied or McCain ahead by a couple points. With that in mind, one can safely cast aside the stupid and plain idiotic theory posited by some Democrats that McCain put his campaign on hold as a stunt due to sagging poll numbers.

Generally speaking I find polls useful tools in gauging the overall picture of the race. However, in the past few days it seems the numbers have gone crazy. I have looked at about a ten national polls from the past few days to determine whether there appears to be some discrepancy with the methodology or samples sizes to explain the larger than usual point spreads.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOt85LX2E3c[/youtube]

MSNBC Brain Trust Discusses Bad Polling

The only pattern that I discerned was that McCain tends to do a little better with polls that have over/under age brackets closer to 50/50. In other words, in polls that sample voters 50 years or older in about equal numbers as those who are younger McCain generally does better. In polls that sample 49 year-olds and under in around the 55% sample range Obama does better. So, if one can make a predication it would be that if voter turnout plays out as it has in past Presidential elections, that is age 50 and over constitute close to 60% of the actual electorate, McCain will most likely win. However, if Obama’s efforts at increasing the youth vote pan-out he will win.

So how does that help us right now regarding the current polls with uneven samples and different methodologies? It doesn’t. Just rest assured that the race is close and barring a melt-down during the debates it will remain close to the very end.