a friendly reminder: Hillary can’t win

March 4, 2008 by twitterpaters

by twit

from Newsweek and the department of ‘math is tough,’ with emphasis added:

Hillary Clinton may be poised for a big night tonight, with wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Clinton aides say this will be the beginning of her comeback against Barack Obama. There’s only one problem with this analysis: they can’t count.

I’m no good at math either, but with the help of Slate’s Delegate Calculator I’ve scoped out the rest of the primaries, and even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don’t look good for Clinton. In order to show how deep a hole she’s in, I’ve given her the benefit of the doubt every week for the rest of the primaries.

… So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal. For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead.

Newsweek has a little more to add:

Clinton’s only chance rests with winning over party elders, and the 794 superdelegates who are free to vote for whomever they choose regardless of the primary or caucus results in their own state.

oh, and one more thing:

Democratic officials involved in the conversations said Obama was lining up a package of superdelegates — the party insiders whose votes help select the Democratic nominee — with plans to announce their support as a bloc.

UPDATE!

From the Associated Press via My Way News:

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) – Hillary Rodham Clinton finally had a confetti night. The Democratic presidential hopeful claimed victory in the Ohio primary Tuesday night and said that means, “We’re going strong and we’re going all the way.”

and Karl Rove is laughing a good maniacal laugh right about now.

UPDATE!

From ABC News:

Clinton would need to win 94% of all the remaining pledged delegates to hit the magic number of 2,024. … So, clearly they both are going to be relying on superdelegates to secure the nomination.

From the New York Times:

But for all the millions of votes Mrs. Clinton has now won, simple math is still her enemy.

From the Associated Press via Yahoo News:

It doesn’t get any better for Clinton after Tuesday. Just for kicks, pencil the New York senator in for landslide victories in Wyoming, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky plus narrow victories in North Carolina, Montana and South Dakota — scenarios that give her a hefty benefit of the doubt and then some. And what happens? She still trails Obama. Her only hope is that a solid majority of the nearly 800 superdelegates support her over Obama. Party rules allow them to act independently, but it’s almost unfathomable that these political animals would not ratify the results from primaries and caucuses.

UPDATE!