The race for governor is often the biggest spectacle in Texas politics, and the governor's mansion the biggest prize.

But the contest between incumbent Republican Greg Abbott and Democratic nominee Lupe Valdez is forecast to be not much of a contest at all. Abbott, who in 2014 beat former state Sen. Wendy Davis by 20 percentage points, looms like Goliath on the political landscape, with Valdez lacking the weaponry to take him down. She needs more than five smooth stones.

Democrats have focused much of their attention on the remarkable campaign of Beto O'Rourke, the El Paso congressman who's challenging incumbent Ted Cruz for Senate.

The Cruz-O'Rourke showdown is the marquee race of the season, and could change the fortunes of Democrats and Republicans alike.

With Abbott poised to spend more than $40 million to turn out the Republican vote and in the process help Cruz, the question becomes: does Valdez's presence on the ticket hurt or help O'Rourke?

"Compared to nothing, she helps," said Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University.

Jones said Valdez, the first Latina to win a major-party nomination for governor, could propel the ticket by increasing Hispanic turnout for Democrats and may help candidates in North Texas, where she is well known. There are also risks, he said. Critics contend Valdez is not as knowledgeable about policy as nominees before her. She's vague on issues and prone to missteps when pressured.

"If you compare her to Wendy Davis and Bill White (2010 nominee for governor), she is not even close to being in their league with policy or campaigning," Jones said.

Paul Quinn President Michael Sorrell, who Democrats recruited to run for governor, said Valdez's presence on the ticket will have little impact on O'Rourke's efforts.

"I don't think Lupe makes a difference to this race," Sorrell said. "People view Beto's race as a separate entity from Lupe's race."

Veteran Republican consultant Bill Miller said Valdez could be a problem for O'Rourke and other Democrats because her campaign is so irrelevant.

"The Democrats believe she helps, but in my opinion she hurts," Miller said. "She's not going to be a strong candidate and her race is not a hot race. She's going to be discounted early on and that won't help O'Rourke."

On Thursday, O'Rourke will join Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins for a rally at the Farmer's Market in downtown Dallas. Valdez, the former Dallas County sheriff, will attend the event.

Democrats search for options

For years Texas Democrats have struggled with finding quality candidates to run for governor, and the search for a 2018 candidate became grim when the likes of former Housing Secretary and former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro opted against a campaign, as did his twin brother Rep. Joaquin Castro of San Antonio and state Rep. Rafael Anchia of Dallas.

U.S. Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke spoke at The Rustic in Dallas in April. Paul Quinn President Michael Sorrell, who Democrats recruited to run for governor, said Democratic gubernatorial candidate Lupe Valdez's presence on the ticket will have little impact on O'Rourke's effort to unseat Republican Ted Cruz. (Staff / 2018 File Photo)

As the deadline approached, Valdez and Houston investor Andrew White entered the fray, giving Democratic voters distinct choices. Valdez is described as a progressive, while White is more moderate to conservative.

That meant Abbott, who had been stockpiling campaign cash, would have an opponent. Some Democrats said privately that it would have been better to leave Abbott alone than field a candidate.

Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa said that theory was nonsense, telling The Dallas Morning News that Republicans poking Hispanic voters, the "sleeping giant," was more perilous than Valdez engaging Abbott.

"Abbott is a horrible governor, but a good politician," he said. "He was not, under any circumstances, going to be unopposed."

Valdez has struggled to raise money and her campaign still isn't in full gear, though Democrats contend she's come a long way from the early days of the primary.

After winning the nomination, Valdez said she hopes donors would give her a boost. She did not say how much money it would take to win.

"I think the Democrats will back up a Democrat," Valdez said. "I have no doubt we're going to get the money we need. It's even starting already."

She said her voter turnout operation would make the difference.

"He may have all that money, but we've got the grassroots," Valdez said. "We're going to have all the money we need, but the grassroots and the everyday people are going to be the ones that win this election."

O'Rourke has been a fundraising delight. In the first quarter of this year he posting a total of over $6.8 million, nearly twice as much as Cruz. He's done that without the aid of money from political action committees, refusing to take their cash.

His biggest need is for Democrats to have a united front and turn out base voters, along with attracting some Republicans.

Attracting Hispanic voters

Hinojosa says that's where Valdez is most valuable.

"She helps him a lot," Hinojosa said. "Beto can't win this election unless he gets a high turnout in the Latino community. It's important to have a Latina at the top of the ticket helping."

O'Rourke, though popular with many Democrats, has struggled to gain a solid foundation with Hispanic voters.

Whether Valdez is the tonic he needs is unclear.

In 2014 former state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, a candidate for lieutenant governor, was unable to help Davis increase her share of the Hispanic vote.

Anchia said Valdez's law enforcement background would also be a benefit.

"That could be a really nice compliment to Beto O'Rourke and a contrast to Greg Abbott," Anchia said.

Democratic strategist Matt Angle agreed with Sorrell, the Paul Quinn College president, saying Valdez's presence on the ballot was irrelevant to O'Rourke's effort.

"He's running against a different kind of Republican than Greg Abbott," Angle said. "Abbott is more sour than vanilla pudding, but he's vanilla pudding...The governor's race occupies a different part of the voter's mind."

Angle said Valdez would not impact congressional races either, but could have impact on local and other state races.

Valdez bristles at the notion that she's running an impossible campaign, pointing out that she's been the underdog all her life. One of her campaign narratives is rising from a migrant worker to becoming Dallas County sheriff.

"Please tell me when I didn't have an uphill battle," she said after capturing the nomination.