Each month, PublicPolicyPolling polls the 2012 presidential race. While they have included Ron Paul, a sitting Republican Congressman and the 1988 Libertarian presidential nominee, for some time in their polls of the Republican primary, this is the first in time in a long while that a pollster has tested Dr. Paul’s odds as an independent. From the pollster’s blog:

PPP’s monthly look ahead to the 2012 Presidential race finds that Ron Paul could play a major role as a third party candidate. He gets 13% in a hypothetical three way contest with Barack Obama getting 42% and Mitt Romney 36%. Paul would draw his support in such a scenario from conservative leaning voters who are unhappy with the Republican party. 44% who say they would vote for him are Republicans compared to 41% independents and 15% Democrats. 49% are conservatives, 37% are moderates, and 14% are liberals. But only 26% of them think Congressional Republicans are doing a good job to 61% who disapprove.

Interestingly, 13% would still not qualify for the Commission on Presidential Debates, even though nobody can deny that such a figure is a significant level of support for a candidate in a nationwide contest.

Some have interpreted this to mean Paul would play spoiler to the GOP candidate in such a contest.

In the comments of the PPP blog, one of the pollsters claims Paul has no chance to claim the Republican nomination. I am a bit more skeptical. Paul claimed 10% of the vote in the Iowa caucus in 2008, and since then has found supporters on the state party’s central committee and an existing campaign infrastructure in his satellite organizations, the Campaign For Liberty and Young Americans For Liberty. In addition, his strength appears to be growing in New Hampshire, where a recent PPP poll has Paul at 13%. This is third place, behind Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, and represents a significant uptick in support from his 4% showing in 2008. If Paul has a good showing in these first two primary battlegrounds, it is at least plausible that the libertarian could become the Republican nominee.

I have not heard any rumors that Rep. Paul is considering an independent bid for President. Nevertheless, as a third party candidate he would have significant advantages. If Dr. Paul managed to get into the debates, his anti-war position would likely play better in the general electorate than the Republican primary. In addition, getting on the ballot would likely be easier than other 3rd party candidates due to potential support from both the Libertarian and Constitution Parties.