BOUND BROOK — Jim D'Agostino remembers his business's watershed years all too well, and not in a good way: 1971, 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010.

Those five years mark the times storm floodwaters submerged his downtown Bound Brook sub shop, inflicting hundreds of thousands of dollars in damage and lost sales on him and other business owners.

Now, with Hurricane Irene in the offing, D’Agostino is hoping he won’t have to add 2011 to his list.

Irene, the first hurricane to threaten the U.S. in three years, is on a course to rip through North Carolina on Saturday and continue up the East Coast. Forecasters Tuesday night said the latest National Hurricane Center projections have the storm over Cape May after midday Sunday. But hurricanes are known for their unpredictability.

"There’s a lot of uncertainty with the track right now. The center could be off the coast of New Jersey by Sunday afternoon," said Al Cope, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Mount Holly office.

One projection lands the current Category 1 storm in Cape May by 2 p.m., with the strongest winds on the state’s coast. But Cope cautioned the entire state could feel the Irene’s effects.

Meteorologists say the Garden State could endure heavy rain and strong winds late Saturday through Sunday. How much weather will the storm pack? That’s up to Irene.

"It’s really too early to tell what strength it’ll be once it gets here," said Mitchell Gaines, another meteorologist with the service.

Gaines also said the brunt of the storm is expected to arrive Sunday and noted it would have tropical characteristics. However, he said, land masses and cooler water temperatures would weaken the storm as travels north.

After five hurricanes, tropical storms and nor’easters — including 1999’s devastating Hurricane Floyd — news of Irene has D’Agostino, owner of Lou’s Subs and Deli, groaning "Not again." But he’s also practical.

"We’ve learned in the past that it doesn’t pay to panic," he added.

Instead, D’Agostino and others in Somerset County’s flood-battered towns of Manville and Bound Brook are bracing for whatever comes howling their way.

In their favor, officials and residents say, they have learned a few things since Floyd inundated them in 1999.

"Floyd was nasty because it was the first flood in 50 years or more of that magnitude," D’Agostino said. "There was a learning curve going on."

D’Agostino has since swapped the wood floor in his East Main Street store for ceramic tiles. Electric outlets, meanwhile, are now four feet off the floor.

On a larger scale, the area now has improved communications. Before Floyd, floodwaters had only deluged the area once in 25 years (in 1996) and residents were not prepared for the magnitude of the hurricane’s destruction, said Doug Vornlocker, Somerset County’s director of emergency management.

Since then, Manville has installed four sirens across town and a reverse 911 phone system that can warn people to seek higher ground.

Bound Brook and Manville also are using technology that allows them to track the storms up to the minute.

Manville additionally participates in flood-control efforts with eight surrounding towns, including Somerville and Montgomery. And in Bound Brook, the Army Corps of Engineers is fortifying the area with a series of levees, flood walls, detention reservoirs, pumping stations and bridge alterations.

That system won’t be complete until next year, but officials say it’s already showing results. During a downpour last spring, a section of Bound Brook centered around Talmadge Avenue showed little flood damage. But in a 2007 storm, Mayor Carey Pilato said, the area was swamped by five feet of water.

For now, officials and residents of both towns are hoping their advance planning works, and they’re making whatever last-minute preparations they can in the hope they won’t have another infamous storm to talk about.

"We’re much farther ahead in the game than in ‘99," said Gary Garwacke, Manville’s administrator and engineer.

By Eugene Paik and Victoria St. Martin/The Star-Ledger

Previous coverage:

• N.J. residents urged to prepare for Hurricane Irene

• Hurricane Irene gets stronger, could hit Florida or South Carolina

• Hurricane Irene knocks out power in Puerto Rico, could hit Florida coast by end of week

• Weather coverage from NJ.com