PRINCETON, NJ -- President Barack Obama's job approval rating has been 50% or higher in each of the last four Gallup Daily tracking figures, including a 51% rating in the latest three-day rolling average, from Sept. 23-25. This nearly matches the level of approval for Obama that Gallup found at the end of the Democratic National Convention earlier this month. His approval then dipped into the 40s by mid-month before rebounding to 51% late last week.

More generally, September is turning out to be one of Obama's best months in over a year: he is on track to average roughly 49% job approval this month, up from 45% in August and 41% in September 2011.

At the same time, the president is enjoying increased support from voters in Gallup Daily tracking of presidential election preferences. Registered voters favor Obama over his Republican challenger Mitt Romney by 50% to 44% in Gallup Daily tracking from Sept. 19-25. As is seen with his job approval rating, voter support for Obama is now similar to where it stood toward the end of the Democratic convention, after a week in mid-September when the race had collapsed to a tie.

Bottom Line

Several important events have taken place in the past month that may indicate the boundaries in which the final stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign will play out.

First, the Republican National Convention produced no bounce in support for Romney, leaving the race a virtual tie. Next, the Democratic National Convention boosted Obama's support by three percentage points, not big by historical bounce standards, but enough to give him a significant lead for the first time since July. The race then tightened again, possibly reflecting a fading of Obama's convention bounce or a backlash against Obama over anti-American violence in the Mideast, including the death of the U.S. ambassador to Libya on Sept. 11. The race remained close over several days when the primary news focus was on Romney's Sept. 18 comments about the "47%" of Americans who are dependent on government, but most recently has reverted to a six-point lead for Obama.

Over the same period, Obama's job approval rating has ranged from 43% to 52%, levels historically associated with either near-certain defeat or near-certain re-election for an incumbent. Obama is currently at the high end of that range, and has had more good days than bad this month, in terms of achieving job approval ratings of 49% or better. But there have been enough dips below that to suggest the race is far from over.

Looking forward, with three presidential debates scheduled and two more jobs reports coming out before Election Day, there is plenty of opportunity for voter preferences to swing back and forth in this range, even without further international incidents or campaign controversies.