Donald Trump speaks at a March 4 rally in Warren, Michigan. | Getty Michigan polls just the right size for Trump, Clinton

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are well-positioned heading into Tuesday's Michigan primaries, according to the results of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey released Sunday.

Among those likely to vote in the state's March 8 Republican primary, Trump earned 41 percent support, followed by 22 percent for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, 17 percent for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, 13 percent for Ohio Gov. John Kasich and 5 percent undecided. Those results include likely voters who had supported retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, whose campaign came to an end this week after he said he saw no viable path forward to the nomination. Carson received 9 percent when included as a response, with support for the candidate subsequently diffused among the four remaining possible nominees.


Trump holds strong leads among most demographic groups, including among moderates and those identifying as independents. Among those identifying as very conservative, however, Cruz holds a 13-point lead over Trump (43 percent to 30 percent).

With white, born-again evangelical Christians, Trump and Cruz are neck-and-neck in Michigan. Trump received 30 percent of support from that group, while Cruz, who continued to roll out a series of endorsements from the Christian community last week, took 29 percent.

Roughly six-in-10 — 61 percent — said they strongly support their candidate, while 26 percent said they somewhat support and another 12 percent said they might vote differently. Trump supporters are more sure, with 70 percent responding that they will vote for their candidate.

On the Democratic side of the race, Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by 17 points — 57 percent to 40 percent — ahead of Sunday night's debate in Flint. Just 3 percent remain undecided before Tuesday. About 72 percent of Democratic voters with a preference said they are strongly committed to their candidate, while 22 percent said they are only somewhat and 5 percent said they might vote differently. The respective shares of both Clinton and Sanders supporters expressing their level of commitment are both within the margin of error.

Along demographic lines, Clinton and Sanders are split among white voters (49 percent to 48 percent), but the former secretary of state is the leader among likely African-American voters, 76 percent to 21 percent. Those results would appear to suggest that Clinton is poised for another strong showing among African-Americans in Michigan, as she enjoyed on Super Tuesday and last month in South Carolina.

Sanders holds a 27-point lead over Clinton among those professing to be independent, while Clinton leads by an equal margin among self-identified Democrats. Sanders had an edge among those under 45; Clinton among those older than 45.

In a hypothetical general election matchup, Michigan voters prefer both Clinton and Sanders over either Trump or Cruz. Clinton polled better than Trump, 53 percent to 36 percent, in a general election matchup, Sanders topped Trump by a 56-34 margin. Cruz polled better against both Democratic candidates, tailing Clinton by just 7 points and Sanders by 18.

Marist conducted the telephone poll from March 1-3, surveying 482 likely Michigan Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. Among the 546 likely Democratic primary voters, the margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Louis Nelson contributed to this article.