Patch 7.0 might just be one of Nintendo’s biggest changes yet. It’s at least rival to the 3.1 patch that took Olimar and Pichu out of top tier and brought up a lot of low tiers. With all those changes comes the most fun part: the gamble. Everyone in Smash is busy speculating which buffs and nerfs will shift the whole tier list.



I’d like to join in and add a fun twist to it, just like with the last patch article (hey, at least I got the buffs right). Like last time, I’m going to put a percent chance next to each prediction. This time, the predictions will be movements in the tier list, which is super tricky to predict since it isn’t subjective. It’s predicting opinions, and no one ever has the same opinions about character strength.



So I’ll add a few qualifies to make sense of it. I’ll add “niche” to mean in some tier lists, “majority” to mean in most tier lists, and “consensus” to mean in nearly all tier lists. So a joke example would be “Joker will be low tier, consensus, 90%.”



If you aren’t caught up with the patch changes yet, you can check out the full patch notes here and you can get an overall idea at a glance using this infographic from Justin “Popi” Banusing. Now let’s get started.

#SmashBrosUltimate Patch 7.0 is here, and with it comes A LOT of changes to the game's roster.



Notable Changes:

– Shield fixes to over 30 characters

– Nerfs to ZSS, Palutena and Joker

– Major Sheik and Cloud buffs



Check out what's new in the infographic below! pic.twitter.com/0Iew0KBxeY — Justin B. (Popi) (@PopiSSB) January 29, 2020

Palutena and Joker will drop to high tier

Niche, 90%

This list item is all about expectations, not reality. Were the nerfs to Joker and Palutena really that big? It’s hard to say. Pro players are pretty split on the matter and we won’t know until at least a week, probably a month.



However, I know Smash players well enough to know that any meaningful nerfs on a top tier will make them drop on a niche subset of tier lists. I expect Joker and Palu will see instant drops like Olimar and Pichu saw, followed by slow readjustments. The knee-jerk reaction makes the niche level easy to call but those adjustments and individual opinions make these nerfs a lot harder to call for the majority of tier lists.

Smash Ultimate will be more fun

Majority, 80%

This patch saw a ton of shield buffs and fixes. Basically, Nintendo went around most of the cast and adjusted their shield size up and put some invulnerability on parts of the hitbox to reduce shield poking and make it feel more consistent. These shield changes might just be the biggest quality of life buff Ultimate has ever gotten.



In Ultimate, shield poking feels like one of the most inconsistent and wonky parts of the game and it’s in no small part because of all the unique character models in the game. Ridley isn’t too big for Smash but he was kinda too big for his shield. Somehow, so was Olimar. Even after all the shield changes, Nintendo probably still has more to fix. But this is a great step in making the game feel more consistent and make a core function – blocking – feel like it works as intended.



Since this nerfs shield pressure, we could see defensive play become more prevalent but I bet that the game will actually become more fun to play and watch. That’s not just because of shields. It’s also because Nintendo buffed kill power for a lot of characters, which should increase the pace of the game.

Samus will be high tier

Majority, 80%

If you’ve been watching the good Samuses in this game, I think this will be a cold take. Samus was moving up tier lists before they buffed her, now she’ll just move faster. In truth, she started the game underrated because we as a playerbase overvalued kill power, which she lacked.

We also misunderstood how her play pattern worked. Now that we see players like Marcel “quiK” Romagnuolo maximizing her, we can see that she has an insanely good advantage state. Her charge shot can cover every ledge option with different timings, she combos at almost all percents, her damage is nuts.



And now she can kill at reasonable percent with raw options. Her up throw, up smash, and down smash all have more knockback and can kill up to 20% earlier. I think up throw is the biggest change since her smash attacks are hard to land and Samus can force opponents to shield. Her dash attack also doesn’t have a sour spot early hit any more, so it kills more reliably, which is good because she does have kill confirms into dash attack. Just to top it off, now her z-air works a lot better too.



Samus is in the building! Honestly, I’m here for it. She can be annoying to fight but she’s one of Nintendo’s absolutely coolest legacy characters.

Rosalina will be high tier

Consensus, 75%

Rosalina didn’t get a direct buff but she benefited more than most from this patch. Prior to this patch, her shield didn’t cover Luma most of the time. That meant opponents could easily knock the little star bodyguard away from her by putting out a hitbox she has to shield. That forced Rosa players into a lot of suboptimal situations where they needed to slow down to rescue Luma, put Rosa behind Luma, or lose the little star in favor of a punish.



Now Rosa gets to actually keep her bodyguard closer to her body and use shield more liberally. Combine this change with the fact that Samuel “Dabuz” Buzby and Noriyuki Kirihara have already been slowly pushing this character up tier lists, and I think you have a consensus high tier.

So um, Rosa's shield now protects Luma from projectiles properly.



She -may- have become a top tier with that and the nerfs both directly and indirectly to the top tiers.



Definitely better than Olimar but that was true even pre patch lol — 💋 Liquid | Dabuz 💋 ✈💺🛩 (@DabuzSenpai) January 29, 2020

Young Link will be top tier

Consensus, 60%

I’m having a bit of fun with this one. Putting Young Link as a majority high tier or even top tier would be a lot more reasonable but patch time should be a spicy time. And Young Link might have gotten more buffs than any other character in the patch.



Like Samus, Young Link could rack up the damage but couldn’t close the stock. Nintendo fixed that by making his up smash and up air kill earlier. They also buffed his z-air, which now opens up brand new kill confirms. This character was already fast, combo-heavy, good on offense and defense, and at one point in contention for top tier. I think Young Link can be a consensus top tier but it will take a player stepping up and getting results. The playerbase exists but it could take time for them to get there.

Sheik won’t move

Majority, 55%

Sheik got some of the coolest buffs to the patch. She has less landing lag with her needles, which opens up some cool combos and kill confirms now that she can land and chase down an opponent. Her up special also has stronger knockback and her side special is more reliable. These buffs are solid but I think they won’t move her in a lot of tier lists for meta reasons.



Right now, Sheik isn’t a favored pick. James “VoiD” Makekau-Tyson is probably her best representative and isn’t as focused on competitive play as he’s always been. Sheik doesn’t have the same playerbase as a lot of other characters because Ultimate has a lot of rushdown characters that perform a similar role for less effort and more reward. Some tier lists will see the buffs and react quickly but I don’t think we’ll see the competitive wins needed to move her in most tier lists.



However, I could see VoiD and other players proving me wrong and I hope they do! Sheik is cool.

Ryu or Ken will be top tier

Majority, 45%

The Shotos just keep getting buffs. In this case, Nintendo probably buffed them to compensate for how bigger shields hurt their shield break and pressure set ups. Whatever the reason, Ryu and Ken now have even more combos and damage potential. Their down smash can be cancelled into specials, their down tilt has a new angle leading to new combos, their tatsu is safer to use since in neutral, and Ryu’s Hadouken has more shield pressure so it pins opponents down more.

YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS pic.twitter.com/mgo5Er7BnT — Riddles (@Riddlesmk) January 29, 2020

Ryu and Ken already rank pretty high in terms of potential, right next to Shulk and the Ice Climbers. They have a lot of tools that will take time to master, so a lot of people reasonably believe they could become top tier given time and effort. I could easily see a world where Riddles and other top Shoto mains wreck a bracket, get some upset wins, and put their characters into top tier on a lot of lists.



However, I could see Ryu and Ken staying in the high tier because of a lack of safe aerials or a high-risk style or just a lack of immediate results. I lean towards them staying high tier just because people are slow to change their minds but I wouldn’t be surprised if they moved up.

Do you think the changes from Patch 7.0 will put Young Link into top tier? No way, high tier at best 57%, 12 votes 12 votes 57% 12 votes - 57% of all votes

Yes, it will be glorious 33%, 7 votes 7 votes 33% 7 votes - 33% of all votes

Nope, won't budge him at all 10%, 2 votes 2 votes 10% 2 votes - 10% of all votes Total Votes: 21 Voting is closed Poll Options are limited because JavaScript is disabled in your browser.

There are some notable buffs I didn’t talk about here, mainly Cloud, Zelda, Dr. Mario, and Olimar. For Cloud and Zelda, I didn’t think there was much interesting to speculate on. Both characters should have an easier time existing and will probably move up tier lists. They’re popular characters so the most interesting (but also most toxic) speculation will be if people get sick of them or not.

Olimar’s shield fixes seem important but I can’t tell by how much and Dr. Mario is a mystery to me. I’ve read he has new kill confirms and now one of the best out of shield options in the game but he’s still slow and has a bad recovery. And who plays him? Genuine question. The Doc is an unknown quantity.

On an interesting note, this patch hard-targeted mid tiers that were already on the cusp of success. Previous patches went after a lot of low tiers so 7.0 may end up the most visible patch yet. We could see an immediate change in the way the competitive game looks. Exciting stuff!