Below are my season predictions for this upcoming year, I simulated all games between FBS schools (excluding Liberty) using my computer rankings. These rankings are based on last years performance adjusted for players lost and incoming players. Coaching changes are hard to quantify so teams that made drastic changes have the biggest range of outcomes compared to the projections.

AAC

AAC-East Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff UCF 8 0 11 0 597 258 54.3 23.5 30.8 TEMPLE 5 3 6 5 265 268 24.1 24.4 -0.3 S FLORIDA 5 3 8 3 356 255 32.4 23.2 9.2 CONNECTICUT 2 6 2 9 246 434 22.4 39.5 -17.1 CINCINNATI 1 7 1 10 222 351 20.2 31.9 -11.7 E CAROLINA 0 8 0 11 215 483 19.5 43.9 -24.4 AAC-West Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff MEMPHIS 7 1 9 2 510 350 46.4 31.8 14.6 SMU 5 3 5 6 367 398 33.4 36.2 -2.8 HOUSTON 5 3 6 5 272 258 24.7 23.5 1.2 TULANE 4 4 4 7 343 398 31.2 36.2 -5 NAVY 4 4 5 7 309 384 25.8 32 -6.2 TULSA 2 6 2 9 315 416 28.6 37.8 -9.2

It looks like we are in for a rematch of last years AAC championship game between UCF and Memphis which UCF won 62-55 in an absolute barnburner. UCF is projected to once again go unbeaten with a mediocre non-conference schedule with the toughest games at North Carolina and home against Florida Atlantic. No teams project to be in contention with those two teams as no team is predicted to win more than 5 conference games, but the middle of the conference should be incredibly competitive with 6 teams projected to go 5-3 or 4-4.

ACC

ACC-Atlantic Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff CLEMSON 8 0 11 0 375 122 34.1 11.1 23 FLORIDA ST 6 2 8 3 287 233 26.1 21.2 4.9 LOUISVILLE 5 3 7 4 311 320 28.3 29.1 -0.8 NC STATE 4 4 6 5 308 289 28 26.3 1.7 WAKE FOREST 3 5 5 6 327 292 29.7 26.5 3.2 BOSTON COLLEGE 2 6 4 7 233 267 21.2 24.3 -3.1 SYRACUSE 0 8 1 10 205 349 18.6 31.7 -13.1 ACC-Coastal Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff VIRGINIA TECH 7 1 10 1 292 158 26.5 14.4 12.1 MIAMI 7 1 10 1 334 184 30.4 16.7 13.7 N CAROLINA 5 3 6 5 281 281 25.5 25.5 0 PITTSBURGH 4 4 4 7 200 302 18.2 27.5 -9.3 DUKE 4 4 6 5 214 220 19.5 20 -0.5 GEORGIA TECH 1 7 2 9 214 314 19.5 28.5 -9 VIRGINIA 0 8 0 10 158 284 15.8 28.4 -12.6

In the Atlantic Clemson should roll to another division championship as Florida State rebounds from their miserable season last year to finish second in the division but not quite back to competing with Clemson level. Louisville should still have a solid team but their upside is limited to how the replace the legend of Lamar Jackson at the QB position. In the Coastal it should come down to Virginia Tech and Miami, VT has had some injuries on the defensive side of the ball in the pre-season but getting Miami at home still gives them a slight advantage. Virginia Tech also avoids both Clemson and Florida State in cross-divisional play while Miami has the traditional game against Florida State which could make a big difference in the end.

Big Ten

Big Ten-East Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff PENN ST 9 0 12 0 452 169 37.7 14.1 23.6 OHIO ST 8 1 11 1 498 191 41.5 15.9 25.6 MICHIGAN ST 7 2 10 2 296 201 24.7 16.8 7.9 MICHIGAN 5 4 7 5 295 206 24.6 17.2 7.4 MARYLAND 3 6 5 7 269 389 22.4 32.4 -10 RUTGERS 2 7 3 9 171 288 14.3 24 -9.7 INDIANA 2 7 4 8 230 301 19.2 25.1 -5.9 Big Ten-West Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff WISCONSIN 7 2 10 2 371 142 30.9 11.8 19.1 IOWA 7 2 9 2 290 192 26.4 17.5 8.9 NORTHWESTERN 5 4 7 5 250 218 20.8 18.2 2.6 NEBRASKA 3 6 5 7 247 353 20.6 29.4 -8.8 MINNESOTA 3 6 5 7 225 270 18.8 22.5 -3.7 PURDUE 2 7 5 7 243 260 20.3 21.7 -1.4 ILLINOIS 0 9 1 10 137 312 12.5 28.4 -15.9

The Big Ten East right now is in flux with everyone waiting to see what happens with the Urban Meyer situation at Ohio State, even taken he will be there Penn State has the slight advantage getting Ohio State at home but the game is as much of a toss up as it can be. It remains to be seen how losing Offensive Coordinator Joe Moorhead affects the offense in addition to losing star Saquon Barkley but I think Penn State will be as good as the past two years. Michigan State returns a lot of players but will be behind both Penn State and Ohio State when all is said and done. As for Michigan they are projected to have an elite defense but once again their offense is projected to struggle as it has seemed to do under Jim Harbaugh recently, there’s hope that Shea Patterson can be a star which would help tremendously. In the West, Wisconsin is projected to win yet another division title albeit just barely over Iowa. Wisconsin will have just as good if not a better team than last years 12-0 squad but this year has a much tougher schedule with road games against Iowa, Northwestern, Michigan, and Penn State. Some Nebraska fans have high hopes in Scott Frost’s first season as head coach but I think it will take time for him to grow the program back into a nationally competing team, especially with a tough cross-divisional draw of Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State this year.

Big 12

Big 12 Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff TCU 8 1 9 2 317 231 28.8 21 7.8 OKLAHOMA 8 1 11 1 522 335 43.5 27.9 15.6 OKLAHOMA ST 6 3 8 3 380 318 34.5 28.9 5.6 TEXAS 6 3 9 3 392 261 32.7 21.8 10.9 IOWA ST 5 4 6 5 276 257 25.1 23.4 1.7 KANSAS ST 5 4 6 5 343 308 31.2 28 3.2 TEXAS TECH 3 6 5 6 281 324 25.5 29.5 -4 W VIRGINIA 3 6 4 7 333 331 30.3 30.1 0.2 BAYLOR 1 8 1 10 240 334 21.8 30.4 -8.6 KANSAS 0 9 1 10 173 395 15.7 35.9 -20.2

The Big 12 is the conference I have the least confidence in predicting correctly this year with Oklahoma replacing Baker Mayfield it could be a wide open race. Judging by the teams projected point differentials it is conceivable that any of the top 8 can win any game and in turn win the conference. Baylor is still not quite back but should see improvement soon from Matt Rhule’s squad and then Kansas has a team too.

Conference USA

C-USA East Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff FLA ATLANTIC 8 0 9 2 394 228 35.8 20.7 15.1 MARSHALL 7 1 8 3 226 174 20.5 15.8 4.7 MIDDLE TENN ST 6 2 7 4 228 231 20.7 21 -0.3 CHARLOTTE 3 5 3 8 141 272 12.8 24.7 -11.9 W KENTUCKY 3 5 4 7 186 259 16.9 23.5 -6.6 OLD DOMINION 1 7 2 8 181 241 18.1 24.1 -6 FLA INTERNATIONAL 1 7 2 9 210 287 19.1 26.1 -7 C-USA West Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff LOUISIANA TECH 7 1 8 3 307 259 27.9 23.5 4.4 UAB 6 2 8 3 324 250 29.5 22.7 6.8 NORTH TEXAS 4 4 5 5 312 290 31.2 29 2.2 UTSA 4 4 6 6 222 218 18.5 18.2 0.3 SOUTHERN MISS 4 4 5 6 235 286 21.4 26 -4.6 RICE 2 6 2 10 176 329 14.7 27.4 -12.7 UTEP 0 8 0 11 124 315 11.3 28.6 -17.3

With apologies to Lane Kiffin for this rat poison it’s obvious his team is the favorite in the conference this year after winning it last year. They have the ability in the non-conference to shock the world with games against Oklahoma and UCF in which I think they will be very competitive in both. Marshall is the only real opposition in the East for FAU and they do host FAU but Kiffin’s team should still win the division. In the West UAB shocked everyone last year with a 6-2 record after coming back from the dead as a program, them and Louisiana Tech should be the favorites this year to win the division. Louisiana Tech gets the Blazers at home this year and that could be the deciding factor.

Independent

Independent Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff NOTRE DAME 0 0 11 1 395 174 32.9 14.5 18.4 MASSACHUSETTS 0 0 6 4 284 294 28.4 29.4 -1 ARMY 0 0 5 4 232 201 25.8 22.3 3.5 NEW MEXICO ST 0 0 5 4 190 183 21.1 20.3 0.8 BYU 0 0 5 6 159 260 14.5 23.6 -9.1

Notre Dame is a sneaky pick for a playoff team this year with a solid yet not impossible schedule and returning a lot of good contributors from last years team. As for the rest of the independent teams it looks like we’re in store for mostly mediocrity which for teams like UMass and New Mexico State is actually pretty good and they would be happy with making a bowl game.

MAC

MAC-East Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff OHIO U 7 1 10 1 401 225 36.5 20.5 16 BUFFALO 6 2 8 3 288 225 26.2 20.5 5.7 AKRON 4 4 4 7 179 254 16.3 23.1 -6.8 MIAMI OHIO 4 4 6 6 262 237 21.8 19.8 2 BOWLING GREEN 1 7 1 10 249 351 22.6 31.9 -9.3 KENT ST 0 8 0 11 123 352 11.2 32 -20.8 MAC-West Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff W MICHIGAN 6 2 8 3 330 311 30 28.3 1.7 E MICHIGAN 6 2 7 4 211 209 19.2 19 0.2 N ILLINOIS 6 2 7 5 260 245 21.7 20.4 1.3 TOLEDO 5 3 6 5 338 260 30.7 23.6 7.1 C MICHIGAN 2 6 3 8 210 277 19.1 25.2 -6.1 BALL ST 1 7 1 10 155 362 14.1 32.9 -18.8

Everyone’s favorite conference should give us some excellent MACtion all year long with tight division races to be expected. Ohio and Buffalo should be the class of the East while the West should be highly competitive amongst the foursome of Western, Eastern, NIU, and Toledo.

Mountain West

MWC-Mountain Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff WYOMING 7 1 9 2 309 186 28.1 16.9 11.2 BOISE ST 7 1 9 3 345 241 28.8 20.1 8.7 UTAH ST 6 2 7 4 300 245 27.3 22.3 5 COLORADO ST 3 5 5 6 274 304 24.9 27.6 -2.7 AIR FORCE 2 6 3 8 264 374 24 34 -10 NEW MEXICO 0 8 0 10 149 298 14.9 29.8 -14.9 MWC-West Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff FRESNO ST 7 1 10 1 301 184 27.4 16.7 10.7 SAN DIEGO ST 6 2 8 3 329 224 29.9 20.4 9.5 UNLV 5 3 6 5 305 308 27.7 28 -0.3 NEVADA 4 4 6 5 320 296 29.1 26.9 2.2 HAWAII 1 7 2 10 223 348 18.6 29 -10.4 SAN JOSE ST 0 8 0 11 143 383 13 34.8 -21.8

Surprising to some Wyoming expects to get better even though they lost 1st round draft pick QB Josh Allen, but he really didn’t play that well last year on what was a young team. The division should be a toss-up between them and Boise State, the game between the two is at Wyoming which could be a determining factor and both play other division favorite Fresno State. As for the Mountain division Fresno should be the favorite after last years shocking rise in the first year under Jeff Tedford, with San Diego State being its usual solid self challenging at the top.

Pac 12

Pac 12-North Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff WASHINGTON 9 0 10 1 431 155 39.2 14.1 25.1 STANFORD 7 2 8 3 388 283 35.3 25.7 9.6 OREGON 6 3 8 3 419 294 38.1 26.7 11.4 CALIFORNIA 3 6 4 7 276 320 25.1 29.1 -4 WASHINGTON ST 2 7 3 8 246 309 22.4 28.1 -5.7 OREGON ST 0 9 0 11 169 478 15.4 43.5 -28.1 Pac 12-North Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff ARIZONA 8 1 10 1 425 289 38.6 26.3 12.3 UTAH 6 3 7 4 266 270 24.2 24.5 -0.3 USC 6 3 7 5 367 296 30.6 24.7 5.9 COLORADO 4 5 4 7 243 315 22.1 28.6 -6.5 ARIZONA ST 2 7 3 9 335 423 27.9 35.3 -7.4 UCLA 1 8 2 10 323 412 26.9 34.3 -7.4

Washington should be the class of the league this year by far, they should not lose to any Pac 12 team this season and should be in the conversation for the playoffs regardless of the result in the season opener against Auburn. Stanford and Oregon will be competitive in the North as is usual but neither have quite the talent to compete with the Huskies. In the South welcome to the Khalil Tate hype train, with the addition of Coach Kevin Sumlin and another year of Tate Arizona should win in what is expected to be a wide open division this season. Utah and USC both will challenge Arizona for the top spot but USC may struggle a bit this year compared to expectations. The projections are no fan of UCLA after losing Josh Rosen but hiring Chip Kelly should give them a bit of a boost. Also Herm Edwards coaches at Arizona State for some reason, that should go well.

Sun Belt

Sun Belt-East Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff APPALACHIAN ST 7 1 9 2 328 219 29.8 19.9 9.9 TROY 7 1 9 1 294 174 29.4 17.4 12 GEORGIA ST 3 5 3 8 200 302 18.2 27.5 -9.3 GA SOUTHERN 2 6 2 9 208 306 18.9 27.8 -8.9 COASTAL CAROLINA 1 7 1 10 235 350 21.4 31.8 -10.4 Sun Belt-West Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff ARKANSAS ST 8 0 10 1 347 267 31.5 24.3 7.2 LA MONROE 5 3 5 6 356 374 32.4 34 -1.6 LA LAFAYETTE 4 4 4 7 268 431 24.4 39.2 -14.8 S ALABAMA 3 5 3 8 217 311 19.7 28.3 -8.6 TEXAS ST 0 8 0 11 141 281 12.8 25.5 -12.7

The Sun Belt is introducing a championship game this year, and also the Sun Belt Championship Belt which is just great, and split up the teams in two divisions of five. Appalachian State and Troy should dominate the East division with their game against eachother being the likely tie breaker. In the West Arkansas State should dominate the division and win fairly easily.

SEC

SEC-East Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff GEORGIA 8 0 11 0 411 166 37.4 15.1 22.3 S CAROLINA 7 1 9 2 306 232 27.8 21.1 6.7 FLORIDA 4 4 5 5 238 261 23.8 26.1 -2.3 MISSOURI 4 4 6 5 330 324 30 29.5 0.5 KENTUCKY 2 6 4 7 247 268 22.5 24.4 -1.9 VANDERBILT 1 7 1 10 218 371 19.8 33.7 -13.9 TENNESSEE 0 8 2 9 213 325 19.4 29.5 -10.1 SEC-East Conf Overall Team W L W L PF PA PPG PAG Pdiff ALABAMA 8 0 11 0 471 126 42.8 11.5 31.3 AUBURN 6 2 8 2 328 188 32.8 18.8 14 MISSISSIPPI ST 5 3 8 3 348 234 31.6 21.3 10.3 TEXAS A&M 4 4 6 5 329 329 29.9 29.9 0 LSU 4 4 6 5 273 247 24.8 22.5 2.3 ARKANSAS 2 6 4 7 311 421 28.3 38.3 -10 OLE MISS 1 7 3 8 315 362 28.6 32.9 -4.3

In the first spots in each division you see who you expect, undefeated Georgia and Alabama. However two teams that aren’t always at the top should be in the elite class of SEC teams in South Carolina and Mississippi State. South Carolina hosts Georgia in week two which will most likely end up being the biggest SEC East game of the season with no other team expected to compete for the title. If Mississippi State had got Alabama at home this year I’d say there would be a very good chance at an upset, unfortunately the game is being played in Tuscaloosa. Auburn should again be a solid team and compete in the West but also play Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Expecting an Alabama loss this season would be foolish with their relatively easy schedule. Tennessee fans won’t like their projection but maybe the new coaching staff can help a little but this team won’t be very competitive this year.

Conference Championship Games

AAC: UCF 61, Memphis 35

ACC: Clemson 21, Virginia Tech 11

Big Ten: Penn State 23, Wisconsin 20

Big 12: Oklahoma 30, TCU 29

C-USA: Florida Atlantic 36, Louisiana Tech 21

MAC: Ohio 41, Western Michigan 29

MWC: Fresno State 21, Wyoming 17

Pac 12: Washington 42, Arizona 20

Sun Belt: Appalachian State 27, Arkansas State 26

SEC: Alabama 24, Georgia 16

Projected Playoff Rankings Top 10

Alabama Clemson Penn State Washington Georgia Oklahoma Notre Dame UCF Ohio State Miami

Projected New Years Six

Sugar Bowl: Georgia 40, Oklahoma 26

Peach Bowl: Notre Dame 24, Miami 20

Fiesta Bowl: UCF 37, South Carolina 28

Rose Bowl: Ohio State 46 , Arizona 26

Orange Bowl: Clemson 21 , Penn State 17

Cotton Bowl: Alabama 21, Washington 16

National Championship: Alabama 17, Clemson 14

Another year, another Alabama championship. Looks like my projections are 100% accurate. Thanks for reading.