Notes from the underground.

The real news is what is going to happen to patent budgets at public firms trying to make their Wall Street numbers.

My guess is that the patent budgets are going to drop 25-80%.

Also, China is cutting back on subsidizing patent filings so we are going to see a reduction in the China subsidy. Original US filings are only about 150K and dropping or holding steady.

So, my prediction is that if Trump can’t pull the plane out of the nose dive that we are going to see a large drop in patent filings over the next 9 months at the PTO. I’d guess maybe 30 percent?

The reality is that a large percentage of people see patent filings as junk now and there are large numbers of companies that are now seeing China (CN, KR, JP) and the EPO as better bets than the USA. Many see enforcement in the USA as close to non-existent.

The USPTO is going to feel it. IPR petition went from 1600 to 1200 in a year. I hope those patent judges that are freed up are put to work to get us quick turnarounds on the appeals.

I think we are getting close to the collapse of the US patent system. It feels like a large structure where the support beams have rusted away or been eaten away by the acidic decisions of the Scotus, e.g., eBay, KSR, Alice, Mayo, etc., and the stacking of the CAFC by Obama with judges that are judicial activists that do not think there should be intellectual property.

Will it make a bang or will the spin masters manage to have it ignored by the press? Probably prop up the tools of their trade like Lemley.

Be interesting to see too whether Trump will allow layoffs or will he prop up the workers at the PTO to stop the appearance of layoffs?

I think the prospect for change is close to zero when the profits at SV are at stake and the US election system is controlled by big money with lobbyist there everyday making sure IP rights continue to erode.