Trade bill timeline could push Senate to act

Senate aides have circulated a tentative date of mid-April for advancing “fast-track” trade legislation in the recognition that Sens. Orrin Hatch and Ron Wyden have to move quickly to finalize a deal on the bill or risk losing their chance to get it passed by the end of the spring session, several lobbyists and congressional sources have told POLITICO.

Under the proposed schedule, the senators would introduce the trade promotion authority bill on April 13, the day lawmakers return from their two-week recess, followed by a Senate Finance Committee hearing April 15 and a markup on April 21, the sources said.


Negotiations between Hatch (R-Utah), who chairs the committee, its ranking member Wyden (D-Ore.) and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) are taking place at the staff level over the spring congressional break and “continue to make progress,” Hatch spokesman Julia Lawless said, confirming only that the senator hopes to move legislation “this spring.” Wyden has sought to include provisions to give Congress more power and oversight over the fast-tracking of trade deals.

Quick movement on the bill, which the White House is seeking to expedite congressional consideration of a sprawling Asia-Pacific trade deal, could send Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell the signal to carve out floor time in the upcoming six-week legislative period — a session that will be jammed with major issues ranging from the budget reconciliation process to political fallout over the nuclear energy deal with Iran, and from cybersecurity legislation — a priority of the Kentucky Republican — to the highway funding bill.

Meanwhile, the fate of Trans-Pacific Partnership with Japan and 10 other Asia-Pacific countries hangs in the balance. The legislation is considered vital for easing congressional passage of the deal, which would be the biggest in world history, because it would shield it from amendments and put it to a simple up-or-down vote. Before countries put their final offers on the table, they’ve said they want assurance through the legislation that lawmakers won’t be able to tear the agreement apart during congressional debate — and their trade ministers have been growing more vocal about the need for the bill as a TPP gathering meant to wrap up the deal approaches in late-May.

Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, in particular has been at an impasse with the United States over agricultural and auto tariff cuts. Its economic minister, Akira Amari, told the Financial Times this week that President Barack Obama needs to step up his efforts to win support for fast track legislation from fellow Democrats.

Chile’s deputy trade minister, Andres Rebolledo, echoed the point in an interview with POLITICO, saying that negotiations could continue in parallel, “But of course we are aware that it’s important to have TPA before the last minute of the negotiation.”

The tentative dates for introducing and marking up the bill could be an effort to create some momentum for its consideration, a trade lobbyist who is following the issue closely said. And, because Hatch scheduled and then postponed a hearing on the bill in late February, he won’t have to comply with the seven-day notification requirement for hearings. But “that doesn’t solve your issue of floor time,” the lobbyist said.

Since negotiations began after the midterm elections, Hatch and Wyden have winnowed down their differences to a handful of issues, including a provision Wyden is pushing that would make it easier to remove trade deals from fast-track procedures if lawmakers’ negotiating priorities aren’t met.

The two sides are also discussing the content of and process for amendments, with Hatch seeking to make the bill’s path to passage as smooth as possible, congressional aides said. The Utah Republican wants not only to protect the bill, but also to give certain vulnerable Republican committee members, such as Rob Portman of Ohio, opportunities for political cover as they go into elections in 2016 where trade could be a sensitive issue, lobbyists and aides said.

At least one opponent, former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, is expected to attack Portman for his pro-trade stance, which could resonate in the manufacturing state. Giving Portman, a former U.S. trade representative under George W. Bush, an opportunity to offer an amendment on currency manipulation or another worker-friendly issue — without substantively changing what Hatch wants in a final bill — could provide the Ohio Republican with some political cover.

Wyden, too, wants to reach an agreement by the end of this recess, a Democratic aide said. But if the two sides can’t reach one then or fairly soon after, observers say the window for passing a bill in the six-week legislative period could close. McConnell initially promised floor time for the measure in the last legislative session, but took it away when it became clear Hatch and the Oregon Democrat couldn’t reach a deal, trade lobbyists said.

“[T]hat floor time was pretty much given away,” one of the lobbyists said.

On the House side, Ryan was undeterred as recently as last week by the Senate Finance panel leaders’ delay in reaching an agreement on the fast-track bill, telling reporters at a pen-and-pad briefing that he planned to move it and other trade legislation in the upcoming session.

“My goal is to mark up as many trade bills as I can in the spring,” the Wisconsin Republican said, ticking off bills to renew tariff-cuts under the Generalized System of Preferences program, which expired in July 2013, and the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which expires in September.

Right now, several Republicans — some of whom are high-ranking — say they have been left out of the substance of the fast-track talks and are leaning against voting for the legislation, another trade lobbyist said. That means the House Republican leadership will need to do some legwork to bring the conference in line once a bill is introduced, the lobbyist said, adding that intense, coordinated lobbying would have to happen to get sufficient votes in just a few weeks.

But a Republican aide said the votes will be there when the bill comes to the floor. “A lot of members — on both sides of the aisle — are hesitant to throw their support behind something right now because legislation doesn’t exist yet,” the aide said, noting that outside lobbying groups have made a significant push in favor of the bill theory.

“I expect that it [a vote] will be close but will feel much more confident once language actually exists and is introduced,” the aide said.

Still, Hatch expressed worry as late as last week that if he and Wyden couldn’t strike a deal in April the fast-track bill might not get passed at all this year. When asked this week how quickly the bill could move, McConnell’s spokesman Don Stewart said, “It’s a priority for the leader, but I don’t have timing yet.”

Victoria Guida and Doug Palmer contributed to this report.