There are two ways of looking at Donald Trump’s astonishing response to the Democrats’ attempt to impeach him. Either Trump has finally lost the plot or else he has just guaranteed himself a stunning victory in next year’s presidential election. Whichever view is correct, both signal a rising sea of troubles for the US and the world.

Suggestions that Trump has no idea what he’s doing were reinforced by some unhinged behaviour last week. His ranting about traitors, spies and low-life at a White House event was utterly bizarre, reviving claims that he is unfit for office.

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As usual, Trump turned defence into offence, in every sense. But his bullish tactics staggered Washington. Instead of apologising, he freely admitted asking Ukraine’s president for help in undermining Joe Biden, a leading Democratic election rival. Nor did he deny seeking personal political favours from leaders in Australia, Italy and Britain. He vowed to ask the same of China.

It was an extraordinary display of chutzpah that doubtless delighted many Republicans. But it still looked crazy, given that Trump is brazenly breaking the law. “It is illegal for any person to solicit, accept or receive anything of value from a foreign national in connection with a US election,” said Ellen Weintraub, head of the Federal Election Commission. “I would not have thought that I needed to say this.”

Trump’s defiance is problematic in numerous other ways. Making America’s international relations dependent on private quid pro quos – in Ukraine’s case $391m in military aid and a high-profile White House meeting were allegedly dangled as carrots – is a road to ruin. It amounts to extortion, and invites foreign leaders to behave corruptly, too. As their published texts show, US diplomats saw the danger, in effect, of putting US foreign policy up for sale.

By covertly seeking favours for political advantage, Trump presented US allies with an invidious choice: do as he asked, or risk negative consequences in key policy areas. In Britain’s case, non-compliance could entail problems with a post-Brexit trade deal. There is no proof this happened. But that’s the point. Reports last week that Trump personally sought Boris Johnson’s help to discredit the Mueller inquiry into his Russia links have not been denied.

America’s rivals are not immune from such mafiosi-style arm-twisting. Trump openly suggested that progress in trade talks with China next week could depend on Beijing’s agreement to investigate what he claims, without proof, were corrupt actions by Biden and his son, Hunter. If it were to agree, what might China ask in return? US silence on human rights abuses in Hong Kong perhaps?

He is prepared to obstruct justice, intimidate witnesses, peddle lies, demonise the media, whip up populist hysteria

Whether he realises it or not, Trump has lit a fuse connected to an Oval Office bomb. The move to impeach began after details of his phone call with Ukraine’s president leaked. It has since emerged that transcripts and notes of his phone conversations with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, among others, are also held in a classified White House archive. What private deals may he have cut with them? It’s only a matter of time before Congress subpoenas these records too.

So is Trump’s goose cooked? Not necessarily. For starters, he displays a ruthless, killer instinct his more well-mannered Democrat accusers appear to lack. Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker, resisted impeachment for months. Now she talks not of her fury but of her sadness that it has come to this. This lack of Watergate-style fire and brimstone partly reflects Democratic doubts about Biden, who carries a lot of baggage.

Such self-doubt is wholly foreign to Trump, whose determination to vanquish his accusers and secure a second term knows no limit. As he has already shown, he is fully prepared to obstruct justice, intimidate witnesses, peddle lies, demonise the media, whip up populist hysteria – and, allegedly, fix the 2020 election, just like in 2016.

“As the President of the United States, I have an absolute right, perhaps even a duty, to investigate, or have investigated, CORRUPTION, and that would include asking, or suggesting, other Countries to help us out!” Trump tweeted last week. In his mind, untroubled by ethical, legal or constitutional principles, or any sense of shame, his actions are wholly justified.

Trump and his supporters plainly believe impeachment will backfire. They think claims he explicitly demanded quid pro quos from Ukraine and others cannot ultimately be proven. They will obstruct demands for more witness testimony and transcripts. They will step up mendacious TV ad campaigns vilifying the Bidens. And they will argue, ferociously, that it’s all a Democratic witch hunt, abetted by “fake news” media.

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If impeachment ends with Trump’s acquittal – and given the Republicans’ Senate majority and historical precedent, that’s probable – his “victory”, and the Democrats’ ostensible defeat, will be used as a powerful launch-pad for a second Trump term, regardless of whether his main challenger is Biden, Elizabeth Warren or somebody else.

If on the other hand, it does not go Trump’s way, all bets are off. Serious people, including some Republicans, worry that Trump is the “doomsday president”, determined, if he goes down, to take everyone and everything down with him. If such a point is reached, it is frighteningly unclear whether a goaded, maddened Trump could be trusted to act sensibly and sanely on issues such as Iran and North Korea.

The example of King George III, another American sovereign who lost his reason and his control, comes to mind. From hubris, chaos.