History suggests we can’t predict who will emerge as the Democrats’ presidential nominee. Recent history suggests the horse to bet on is Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Giving credit where it’s due, I was alerted to this idea by a recent column by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette’s John Brummett.

To predict what will happen in 2019-20, look to 2015-16. Many Republicans then found President Obama to be objectionable, even illegitimate. A huge field of qualified but same-old-same-old Republican candidates developed. The early frontrunner, former Gov. Jeb Bush, offered a connection to a bygone era but didn’t excite the masses.

One candidate was different. He was famous, didn’t talk like a regular politician, and offered big, simple solutions. He wasn’t a Republican insider; in fact, for much of his life, he hadn’t been a Republican at all.

Donald J. Trump didn’t have the support of the majority of Republicans, but he led the polls while the same-old-same-olds split the rest of the vote. That earned him the center podium at all the debates. Party insiders and pundits (like me) waited for the field to winnow and a conventional alternative to emerge and ultimately win the nomination. Many Arkansas Republican elected officials supported Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

But then Trump started winning states, including Arkansas during the “SEC primary” on March 1. By the time most of the conventional candidates had dropped out, he had built too much momentum, and the remaining alternatives didn’t excite the masses. Trump became the nominee and then, in November, the incoming president.

So now it’s 2019. It’s the Democrats who despise the president. A large field to challenge him has developed — 18 at last count, with more surely coming. The blast from the past, former Vice President Joe Biden, could play the Jeb Bush role, though he’d probably run a stronger race.

Meanwhile, there’s Sanders. Like Trump, he offers big solutions, with “Medicare for All” serving as this election’s “Build the wall.” Like Trump, he’s not really a member of the party, which in some quarters sees him as a threat.

And like Trump, he’s now in first place. He led a recent Emerson College poll with the support of 29 percent of Democratic primary voters, compared to Biden’s 24 percent. The others are splitting the rest, with none breaking 10 percent.

Most of that 29 percent know what they’re getting. They know Sanders is a democratic socialist who wants to tax the rich and create a single-payer health care system, and they like what he’s saying. I don’t know what his ceiling is, but 29 percent may be close to his floor.

We’ll spend the next 10 months following this horse race, which will attract more candidates before it’s done. And then on Feb. 3 we’ll have the Iowa caucuses, which Sanders almost won in 2016 despite Hillary Clinton being anointed by party insiders. Then there’s New Hampshire, which Sanders won. Nevada and South Carolina will follow, and then 12 states, including Arkansas, will vote March 3.

The Democrats don’t have winner-take-all states, so the delegates will be split between candidates who win at least 15 percent. Candidates who aren’t competitive will start dropping out. On the strength of that 29 percent support, Sanders will be winning states and leading the pack early. He may build too much momentum to stop.

The party changed its rules so that its so-called superdelegates only have a vote if a nominee doesn’t win on a first ballot. Then they’d play a big role. So who would they and the other delegates vote for — the candidate who won states and actually excites some people, or some version of Jeb Bush?

There’s a long way to go, but as of April 2019, it’s not hard to imagine a Trump vs. Sanders scenario, along with potentially a credible independent candidacy by Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz and/or maybe someone else.

Republicans might love to see a Trump vs. Sanders contest. Their guy versus a 77-year-old democratic socialist might seem like a safe bet. Surely if their party finds a candidate so objectionable, so would a sufficient number of other voters.

They should remember that, as recent history reminds us, sometimes that candidate wins.

Steve Brawner is a syndicated columnist in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com. Follow him on Twitter at @stevebrawner.