Boris Johnson may be the last UK prime minister as Scots observe the ‘circus’ in Westminster Our focus groups show Scots are frustrated with ‘messy’ UK politics, says Angus Robertson

The warnings are loud and clear: the new Conservative leader may be the last prime minister of the United Kingdom.

Warnings about the threat to the union are coming from senior figures of the UK parties and not just from the Scottish Government, Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP. They are coming from people like former Labour leader Gordon Brown, former Liberal Democrats leader Nick Clegg and the man who is effectively the deputy UK Prime Minister, David Lidington.

Ex-Labour PM Gordon Brown said that Boris Johnson has a long history of “anti-Scottish invectives”, which eventually “will come back to haunt him”. Former Lib Dem Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg said that Brexit has left the break-up of the United Kingdom “more likely than not”.

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David Lidington told the UK Cabinet that there is a “real risk” of the Union splitting — and the threat of crashing out of the EU is making it more likely.

Opinion polls have shown that a Boris Johnson premiership would tip the scales on independence support and, with Brexit the key issue now determining views on Scottish independence, it’s time to buckle up.

Polling suggests all is to play for

People’s changing views on Scotland’s future really interests me and my research organisation Progress Scotland, which analyses the priorities of people who are open-minded or undecided about Scottish independence.

Polling suggests this group is one fifth of the Scottish electorate and the “Yes” side needs to persuade only one voter in 20 to secure a majority. All is to play for.

In recent weeks we have been conducting focus groups in Edinburgh and Glasgow and, unsurprisingly, the current Brexit dominated political climate was top of the agenda. Feedback from the participants included: “Things are falling apart all over the place”, “I don’t feel as if we are travelling in the right direction” and “I’m actually fed up with it all to be honest. Fed up”.

When asked to give their spontaneous views on the current political scene, voters are overwhelmingly and almost exclusively negative. The themes between the research groups in Edinburgh and Glasgow were almost identical, from confusion and observations that “everything is messy”, to more active negativity such as feeling “unheard” and “angry” and helpless because of the actions taken by the political class, especially driven by the Brexit process.

Strong views were also in evidence on the Tory Leadership, and on both candidates Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt: “I have no confidence in either of them… it proves to me our political industry at the moment is like a circus, so why not have a clown leading us”, “I’m not sure Boris Johnson knows what Scotland is… I think it’s a disaster, just him in general, being in charge of probably the biggest decision of my lifetime.”

What is abundantly clear is that the new UK prime minister faces an uphill struggle to win over Scottish voters. Both candidates are seen as out of touch with voters in Scotland. In particular, participants feel negatively about their attitudes towards the Brexit negotiation and will be alienated if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

The new UK prime minister faces an uphill struggle

Among open-minded and undecided voters there is a desire for clarity on Brexit before the next independence referendum in Scotland, but the focus group research showed a significant majority in favour of another referendum when things are clearer.

In line with a large scale poll for Progress Scotland earlier this year, the majority of participants say that Brexit is influencing their thinking when it comes to questions of Scottish independence. In particular, the spectre of a no-deal Brexit outcome is both concerning to many and seen as the result that would sway views towards supporting an independent Scotland.

One participant said: “I think Brexit could shift a lot of people’s opinions. I voted to remain [in the UK] last time. If there was another referendum, I would seriously think about it… if Brexit happens and it ends up a no-deal Brexit, you wonder how isolated Britain becomes then, definitely, Scotland would be better independent.”

What should worry the incoming UK prime minister is that a clear finding from the research is that many undecided people who voted “No” in 2014 have no ideological barrier to supporting independence. These voters are open to hearing the arguments when a second referendum is called and many actively want to be persuaded, even if, at the moment, they are unconvinced.

The next weeks and months will decide much more than the fate of the new UK prime minister and Brexit, it will determine the fate of the (dis)United Kingdom itself.

Angus Robertson is the former deputy leader of the Scottish National Party