FOR the past ten weeks French cheminots, or railway workers, have been on strike for two days out of every five. This unusual pattern of rolling industrial action, which gives commuters a three-day respite before the disruption returns, is particularly confusing. Because of their ability to cause chaos, and the popular affection that cheminots enjoy in a country where railways are part of the collective imagination, railway strikes are usually an efficient way to force a capitulation. This time, however, it looks as if the French government is going to get its reform through parliament without ceding much ground. Why?

The legislation is designed to prepare the SNCF, the national railway, for competition from 2020 under pre-agreed European Union rules. One of the measures, applicable to any new employee who joins the company, is an end to the special status enjoyed by railway workers, which includes a job for life. The unions, notably the Confédération Générale du Travail, fear that the reform will also lead to higher ticket prices and a weaker public service, and accuse the government of a secret plan to privatise the railways. The government insists that after 2020, when the SNCF will be turned into a société anonyme (the French equivalent of a PLC), it will remain 100% publicly owned.

Despite the unprecedented strike pattern, the government has grounds for confidence. This is partly because public opinion has, broadly, remained supportive. In 1995, when Alain Juppé, a centre-right prime minister, abandoned pension reform in the face of paralysing strikes, popular support for the strikers had increased as the weeks wore on. This time, it is the support for the government that has increased, from 51% on the eve of the first day of strikes to 64% today. The reform is seen as legitimate. The strikes have been inconvenient, and occasionally exasperating, but not crippling. New technology, from apps to organised ride-sharing to the SNCF’s live updated train schedules, has helped commuters cope. With worries about loss of pay and lack of impact, even the cheminots seem to have lost faith. The share of train drivers on strike has fallen from 77% to just over half. The overall share of railway workers taking part in the strikes has dropped from 34% to just 14%.

Caution is always in order when it comes to the French street. But it now looks as though the government will get its railway reform through without too many concessions. Edouard Philippe, the prime minister, has done a decent job of explaining that it is about protecting public services and giving the French railways a chance to withstand competition. To this end, he has announced that the state will take on €35bn ($41bn) of the railways’ debt—assuming this gets past EU competition rules. From the start, President Emmanuel Macron has been clear that there was “no chance” he would shelve railway reform. By the summer, France may well have demonstrated that, when properly handled, reform is possible.