The headline Thursday was about fare evasion — a presentation rejected by the TTC because of its questionable methodology before it was ever made public claimed riders may have been ripping off the TTC to the tune of $49 million per year. That’s about twice the number the TTC has attributed to fare evasion in the past.

“It’s obviously comforting to know that we weren’t kind of blowing smoke,” said councillor and TTC board member Joe Mihevc, who has mused in the past about fare evasion rates. “We hear it from our public; we see it. Those of us who ride the TTC, we see it on a daily basis.”

I certainly do hear that from the public, too. But I ride the TTC on a daily basis, too, and I don’t know how everyone else is so sure.

“Just ride the streetcar,” they say. I do.

It’s because I ride the streetcar that I know well that there is no way to easily spot fare evasion there: the streetcar policy is that riders get on by any door they like and must only produce proof of payment if asked. If they have a pass or a transfer, they do not have to show it to anyone to board — on the new streetcars, in fact, there is no one to show it to.

But those who email me often suggest the sheer number of people boarding by the rear doors and just taking a seat must be getting away with something. Historically, more than half of TTC riders use Metropasses. Many more are transferring from another route. You would expect, in the proof-of-payment system, the vast majority of fare-paying riders to look as if they haven’t paid.

Well, that’s what I’d expect. But my experience of the world is that many, many people suspect — strongly and resentfully — that whoever is next to them must be getting away with something.

People point to students who they think are obviously over the age of 12 paying no fare, claiming to be children. Again, I wonder, how are they all so sure? I coach a hockey team that has a 12-year-old on it who is significantly taller than I am. My own little brother was almost six feet tall by the time he was 11.

I mean, obviously there is some fare evasion. Some people sneak in, and always have. I’ve written before about why I don’t think it’s that big of a problem for the TTC, and why I don’t think they should consider it a priority (and why other big transit systems around the world do not sweat it that much). The TTC’s management has historically also said they don’t think it’s that big of a problem. Their spokesperson says the same now.

The buried presentation in question points out that things like the no-collector, proof-of-payment streetcar system have made it easier to evade payment. Which is true. But they have also made it far easier, I think, for the TTC to assess the scope of the problem on streetcars.

They have fare inspectors who randomly check for proof of payment. Presumably the TTC has an idea of how many people those inspectors confront each day and how many fines they hand out. At least for these routes — suspected to be one of the big growth areas for fare theft — the TTC should already know how frequently people are caught without proof of payment.

And let’s be clear: not all of those caught are actually evading the fare.

Reader, it happened to me. I forgot my Metropass — I am a subscriber to the plan — in my jacket at my desk at work in April. Because I didn’t have to show it to anyone, I didn’t realize it wasn’t in my pocket until I met the fare inspector. Despite my honest explanation and my offer to either pay a cash fare or walk back to the office to get my pass, I got a fine. And paid it.

That was on top of the $134 pass I’d already bought. Considering the earlier pass that never arrived in the mail and the one that arrived a month late, since I’ve subscribed to the “discount” plan the TTC has been costing me hundreds more than I ever spent on tokens. That’s not fare evasion. It’s the opposite — I have overpaid my fares by a substantial margin this year. I cannot be alone in that.

Now, one thing we can all be sure of is that the TTC has recently suffered from a fair amount of what you might call fare repulsion. The machines accepting tokens and payments on streetcar platforms are often out of service. The Presto machines and gates, too, seem to be out of order a good deal of the time. At one point early this year, the TTC estimated Presto gates were out of order 12 per cent of the time.

So some riders make mistakes, other riders get confused, other riders try to pay their fares and are unable to do so. These all seem like obvious problems.

But many of these problems will solve themselves when the Presto system is fully implemented. When it replaces passes and transfers, then everyone will always have to tap on, and everyone will always have that proof on their card. Presumably the machines will more consistently work. And the proof of age for children and students alike will be built right into the Presto cards themselves.

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Much “fare evasion” will resolve itself with Presto improvements. But I’m pretty confident that it will not resolve the certainty among riders that everyone else on their vehicle is probably cheating the system somehow. Whatever the actual rate of fare evasion, the rate of angry suspicion is always far higher.

Edward Keenan writes on city issues ekeenan@thestar.ca. Follow: @thekeenanwire

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