A new, credible New Hampshire poll has Bernie jumping out to a sizable lead in the state. At the same time, he’s been strong in Iowa, which he could quite plausibly win. A Sanders one-two punch in Iowa and New Hampshire would be an enormous step toward winning the nomination, and would be an outcome in keeping with the collapse of center-left parties around the Western world.


Other indicators of Bernie’s strength are that Democratic voters would be just as excited/concerned about him winning the nomination as Biden:

Getting pretty easy to imagine a Sanders win. Evidence suggests rank-and-file see him as a relatively ordinary Democrat, despite segment of D donors, electeds, etc. who see him as a fringe outlier. If he wins IA/NH, voters could decide to end race quickly and unite vs Trump pic.twitter.com/eUzzFzGMMc — Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) January 23, 2020

And that he’s performing well among non-white voters in the latest CNN national poll:

The CNN poll breaks down race by “white” and “non-white”: White

Sanders 24%

Biden 22%

Buttigieg 18%

Warren 13%

Bloomberg 6%

Klobuchar 6% Non-white

Sanders 30%

Biden 27%

Warren 16%

Yang 6%

Bloomberg 5%

Buttigieg 4%https://t.co/grLDov0XO4 — Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) January 22, 2020

We now are in real crunch time in Iowa, so things can change quickly, but it would be foolish to discount Bernie’s chances of winning the Democratic nomination.