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Duncan “Thorin” Shields’ predictions for the 2016 League of Legends eSports scene

Season 5 of League of Legends saw the most significant power shift between the regions in the LCS era. China temporarily rose up to threaten Korea’s spot atop the global scene, winning MSI; Europe moved ahead of North America at all international tournaments with the exception of the IEM IX World Championship, won by TSM; and LMS gave an impressive accounting of itself, with a top four finish at MSI and two teams into the S5 World Championship quarter-finals, providing a legitimate case for them being considered alongside the NA and EU regions.

2016 and Season 6 promises to bring even more chaos, as the off-season has seen barely any top team retaining its 2015 line-up into the new year. In this preview I’ll give you a broad view on the regions, their top teams and who to expect topping podiums throughout 2016.

NORTH AMERICA WILL RISE

(image courtesy of ESL)

While the North American region still struggles to find home-grown talent, its vast coffers and excellent sponsorship opportunities have ensured NA has been able to make many big name signings in the off-season, with more to come at the time of writing. Last season saw NA unable to make a significant impact upon the international scene after TSM’s gradual decline began at MSI. This season will be different, as the sheer amount of talent and investment into infrastructure means it seems almost inevitable NA will enter the World Championship with one or two teams capable of making runs into the quarter-finals and beyond.

TSM’s new team is fire on paper, with every position being filled by a player who was considered a contender for best in his region at his position last year. Rounding out the team with YellOwStaR, who is as yet officially unsigned at the time of writing, should be the lynch-pin final piece for TSM. YellOwStaR is arguably the best shot-caller in the West, has vast experience working with star players and comes with a resume which is near untouchable for Western players. If he can’t command the respect of the stars in his team, then likely no one can.

This is a team with an incredibly high ceiling; capable of a semi-final run at the World Championship should everything go well. I’d have to pick them as my favorite to be the best from the NA region and a team capable of adapting to many meta changes, due to the variety of top talents they have in the team.

NRG have put together a team with a few question marks, but those don’t include Impact and GBM. The West is familiar with the reliable and strong play of Impact, but those who have not watched LCK won’t realize what an exciting talent GBM is. His team was very much built around his play in Korea, but he is capable of strong carry performances game in and game out, which bodes very well for his move to the less competitive North American region, contrasted against his home. NRG has the potential to go far in NA.

The final team who must be spoken about in NA has to be Cloud9. Not only have they reached the last three World Championships, but their past run of success means some of the remaining old players now boast very impressive domestic resumes. Rush is one of the few Korean players who could contend for best in the world at his position and yet is playing in a Western region. The big questions for this team are Top laner Balls, who has been decidedly off for around a year, and how Hai, their shot-caller, will be able to adapt to yet another role-swap, moving to Support.

If things go well, this team can be dangerous due to their coherence, but that is a premise threatened by bringing in such an incredibly aggressive Jungler in Rush and having Hai’s shot-calling balanced out by trying to play a third competitive role in LoL. I’m a lot less sure of this team than the others cited, but they do have some interesting pieces to try and solve the puzzle with.

EUROPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE INTERNATIONALLY RELEVANT

(image courtesy of ESL)

A side effect of NA buying up top talent was the narrative that Europe would suffer, due to not being able to pay or match top salary offers and retain their talent. In reality, Europe, much like China, is a region which will never suffer from talent and it is more a case of how that regional talent is put together into teams. That is exactly where there are still some very promising signs for the European region.

Origen might have had a little help with the bracket draw to reach the semi-final of Worlds, but they are a talented team who showed rapid growth from Challenger to the World Championship. With the addition of PoE, they have shored up one of the few weaknesses in their line-up and this season will legitimately be contending for every domestic title and should be a big name internationally. It’s also worth noting that they are an elite EU team which features only European names, giving them an advantage in terms of cultural synergy.

FNATIC lost a number of their key pieces, but retained Febiven, arguably their most important carry role player, in light of the World Championship. Beyond that, they are apparently set to sign Spirit, who is a monster Jungler capable of taking the title of best in the world at that position. Losing YellOwStaR is huge, since it sees their shot-calling and veteran presence go out of the window, but FNATIC still has some key names and a lot of time to work with that.

Elsewhere, there are no official sources to cite, but there are a number of super-team line-ups in the works which can all do a lot of damage if they come to be. Names like VandeR, Jankos, KaSing, Odoamne, Ryu, FORG1VEN, Froggen and Shook have all been thrown around. Combinations of players of their calibre mean that if even one of these super-teams can successfully come together, then EU will again have a very dangerous international side. Europe’s strengths internationally have always come from having a coherent style of play, so the right stars combined can certainly give them the unique regional flair we have come to expect around Worlds.

KOREA WILL BUILD THE NEXT WORLD CHAMPIONS, AS EVER

(image courtesy of lolesports)

Korea faced its toughest test in Season 5, as every member of the top two teams left for huge pay cheques in China. Despite that, Korea accomplished its first ever World Championship final with both teams there representing Korea. In SKT and KOO we saw two Korean teams who were able to use the right super-star players combined with regional supportive talent and build line-ups which had defined styles and a good understanding of where their strengths lay in the game.

Even with those teams undergoing roster moves, both can be expected to remain relevant and have a chance to represent Korea for another year at Worlds. Smeb and GorillA were the key pieces for KOO and they have retained those talents. SKT lost shot-caller and Worlds MVP MaRin, but they still have the luxury of boasting the best player of all-time (Faker) amongst their ranks. Now, word has it that Duke has signed with them. Duke was the MVP of the Spring split and arguably the strongest individual Top laner in the country, just consigned to the NaJin prison for that year and thus incapable of accomplishing top placings as a team.

Even outside of these teams, we have the big spending of IM, who have purchased Chaser and CoCo, two of the best players in the world at their positions. Korea can also always be relied upon to build teams out of talents we thus-far don’t know can be stars. It’s never a question of if Korea can field a world champion, but more of how quickly.

CHINA WILL CONTEND FOR THE TOP SPOT SOME WAY, SOME HOW

(image courtesy of lolesports)

The mess of hybrid rosters of Koreans and Chinese players shows no signs of stopping, with Worlds MVP MaRin headed over to LGD, but that won’t hold China back from having a world class level teams with very dangerous compositions of players. The day has not set on teams like EDG and LGD. Talent has never been an issue for these squads, it was more an issue of infrastructure and being victims of the biggest meta change in history, coinciding with the most important tournament of the year.

One can also never over-look domestic talent in China. The region has consistently thrown up world class level players and rising talents who can quickly blossom into top players. China will put together at the very least one team in the hunt for the S6 World Championship, if not more. From which direction is more difficult to be certain of, with EDG still having the best infrastructure and veterans, but it seems inevitable. Too much talent, too much money and too much time means China will find a way.

LMS WILL BE READY TO UPSET MORE WESTERNERS INTERNATIONALLY

(image courtesy of lolesports)

The LMS region roused itself out of the international slump of S3 and S4 by getting teams to Worlds who were not only able to pull off upsets but even boased legitimately world class international players (Ziv, Maple, SwordArt etc.). For Season 6, LMS has barely lost any of its talents, with most turning down big offers from abroad. That provides LMS with the unique spot of being a big region without too many hybrid rosters. There is already the talent and the drive out there in LMS to be a team who can again be represented in the quarter-finals of the next World Championship.

BETTING IN 2016

Esports betting has long been around, but it has been decidedly niche in the earlier years and only now begun to grow to levels noticeable for those around the industry. With more fans now willing to pay-to-play, this seems a sector certain to see growth in 2016, as fans look to put their money where their mouths are and win big on their favorite players and teams. Dafabet is just one of the global betting providers that is offering increasingly more lines on eSports events to suit fans’ growing appetite for betting.

About the author: Duncan ‘Thorin’ Shields is one of eSports best known journalists. Since 2001 he’s worked with and for numerous high profile online publishers. He hosts a regular League of Legends talk show,Summoning Insight, discussing topics that of interest to hardcore LoL enthusiasts. He also has his own video series, Thorin’s Thoughts, providing eSports enthusiasts with highly entertaining content. We recommend you check them out.