Voter turnout is high in Republican areas of Wisconsin but depressed in Democratic areas

Wisconsin features several key races of national attention. First, one of the Senate races that Republicans need to pick up is in Wisconsin, where businessman and first-time politician Ron Johnson has a small lead in the polls over incumbent Russ Feingold. The race has seen a large amount of local and national money spent in it, and even as little as six months ago, Feingold was considered "safe". Several House seats are also primed for Republican pickups, and most analysts expect the state's governorship to also move to the Republicans.

For Democrat candidates to win in Wisconsin, they typically have to carry high margins in the state's two biggest population centers, Milwaukee and Madison. One difficult hurdle, however, is that both candidates for the governorship are from the Milwaukee area. The Democratic candidate, Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett, has been mayor for several years and has earned a fair share of goodwill. At the same time, however, he is up against Republican Scott Walker, who has seen incredible electoral success as County Executive in Milwaukee County, despite the area being heavily Democratic. Many analysts expect Walker to negate the typical Democrat advantage in the Milwaukee area, and thus carry himself to statewide success.

When it comes down the Election Day itself, it all comes down actual citizens coming out to vote. All the polls, all the questionaires, ads, and pundit analysis comes down to physical voting. So far on Election Day, Republican areas seem far more excited about voting than Democrat-leaning areas. There are no hard numbers publicly available, but a fair amount of anecdotal evidence exists to suggest that in the Milwaukee area, Republicans are outvoting Democrats by significant margins.

For instance, in the western and southwestern suburbs and ex-urbs of Milwaukee, polling stations have been overwhelmed by voters. In these Republican-heavy areas, turnout is anywhere from 50% to 200% higher than at the same time during the 2008 presidential elections. By contrast, in Democrat-leaning wards in the city of Milwaukee proper, voter turnout is considerably lower than in 2008. Personally, my own ward--which leans slightly Democratic--is down about 30% compared to the same time each year.

This is just anecdotal evidence, but it does paint a picture that should be heartening for Republican candidates in the state of Wisconsin. Factors like early and absentee voting, as well as the fact that many people may simply be voting earlier in the day, are all mitigating factors, but the "enthusiasm gap" appears alive and well in America's Dairyland.