Social tipping points (PNAS)

A new study, “Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050” in Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS) analyzes the different social tipping points that would be required in order to address the environmental crisis.

The article outlines six crucial tipping points and offers some suggestions about how they could be achieved:

the energy production system human settlements the financial system norms and values the education system information feedbacks

The article concludes that:

Since social-ecological dynamics are subject to complex processes that cannot be fully anticipated, it is not possible to predict when and where exactly tipping points will be crossed. However, the system can be imperfectly navigated intentionally to achieve certain desirable conditions and capacities. The social tipping dynamics are likely to spread through adaptive networks of interactions rather than via straightforward cause–effect systems.

The #FridaysForFuture school climate strikes are then offered as an example of a “transformative pathway” to a social tipping point:

The movement is causing “irritations” in personal worldviews and thus might be changing peoples’ norms and values and the ways of thinking and acting, possibly leading to changes in policies and regulations, infrastructure development, as well as individual consumption and lifestyle decisions. For example, as a result of the massive school student protest in Germany, even the traditionally climate-conservative parties recently started to address climate change issues in their programs. The increasing awareness of the seriousness of climate change might drive an increasing demand for greenhouse-gas emission disclosure of various products and services. It might also drive an increased recognition of the intergenerationally unethical and immoral character of fossil fuels that will furthermore strengthen the legitimacy of carbon mitigation policies, including the removal of fossil-fuel subsidies.

It is great that school children are taking part in raising awareness about climate change, but it is telling that such a modest endeavor is described here as “transformative,” and even then its effect is merely an “irritation” and even then with the caveat of three “mights” and a “possibly” in the space of a single paragraph.

Certainly, social tipping points are extremely valuable. But the article suffers a lack of imagination and a sense of scale. As usual, we need to think bigger. Let’s take it seriously that, “the system can be imperfectly navigated intentionally to achieve certain desirable conditions and capacities,” but navigate it with more purpose, with greater force.

We can get a sense of the surprising achievability of reaching a tipping point via an older study, “Social consensus through the influence of committed minorities” in Physical Review that demonstrates mathematically that it takes only around 10% of the population who are committed to an idea to create a tipping point that will spread across the remaining 90%.

If you think that sounds unlikely, consider this: a decade ago people who discussed the United Kingdom leaving Europe were considered a fringe group of swivel-eyed loons, but now Brexit is a reality.

When the time is right, well-crafted nudges and pressures can move things along very fast indeed. It is our duty to make sure things move in the right direction.