Independent Gov. Bill Walker (left) dropped out of the governor's race last week and endorsed former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich. | Becky Bohrer/AP Photo Elections Alaska governor's race turned upside down by incumbent's late dropout The campaign now features Republican Mike Dunleavy and Democrat Mark Begich, a former senator.

Republicans’ surest chance to pick up a governorship in 2018 has suddenly turned into the weirdest, least predictable campaign in the country.

Alaska’s governor’s race is newly up for grabs after independent Gov. Bill Walker abruptly dropped out of the race last week, turning a steady three-way contest that showed Republican Mike Dunleavy leading comfortably into a volatile head-to-head matchup with former Sen. Mark Begich, a Democrat who could notch an improbable political comeback after securing Walker’s endorsement.


Walker’s supporters have flocked to Begich’s side. When Alaska Survey Research polled the race in mid-October, it found Dunleavy at 43 percent but leading both Walker and Begich by double-digits. A new poll the firm conducted from Friday — the day Walker dropped out — through Monday found Dunleavy with a small lead over Begich, 48 percent to 44 percent. (Walker, whose name will still be on the ballot, picked up 5 percent support.)

“Now we have a two-person race, even though we have three people on the ballot,” said veteran Alaska political consultant Jim Lottsfeldt, who has worked for candidates in both parties. “Dunleavy can be defeated. But when you split the left, you can’t beat him.”

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Tumult is tradition in Alaska politics — the state has not reelected a governor to a second term since 1998, with resignations, primary challengers and victorious third-party campaigns tripping up four governors since then. But even here, the late drama grabbed attention: Begich raked in over $150,000 in mostly online donations since Walker’s Friday endorsement.

Republicans hope that once the chaos dies down, Dunleavy will regain full command of the race. The Republican initially kicked off a run in 2017 before dropping out to deal with health issues. But Dunleavy re-entered the race and ran away with the Republican primary in the summer — and appeared to be coasting to the governorship after that, too.

“I think that a three-way race was a near-certain Dunleavy victory, but I think that in a two-way race, Alaskans are going to have a very clear differentiation now, between a person who wants to move the state forward and a person who time after time has shown that he wants to take extreme measures to do things his way rather than what’s good for Alaska,” said Rick Whitbeck, a vice-chairman of the Alaska Republican Party.

Still, Frank McQueary, a former Alaska Republican Party vice chairman, conceded that “Begich will always have a fighting chance” in Alaska. He added: “I'm not sure they can stir up enough to take out Dunleavy, but I’m sure they’re looking very hard.”

Begich still faces an “uphill battle, but it was a little more climbable than it was a week ago,” said Andrew Halcro, a former state lawmaker who ran for governor in 2006.

With the incumbent governor out of the race, Begich has quickly consolidated establishment support on the left, after facing initial criticism for running against Walker. The Alaska AFL-CIO, the state’s largest union, jumped on-board Begich’s campaign, as did the state chapter of the National Education Association. “There has never been a starker contrast between two candidates and their vision for public education than exists between Mark Begich and Mike Dunleavy,” the state NEA’s PAC said in a statement supporting Begich.

The campaign is turning on funding for state programs, especially Medicaid. When Walker announced he was suspending his campaign, he specifically cited protecting the expansion of Medicaid as a reason he wanted to see votes against Dunleavy combined under one banner in the election.

Walker opted to expand Medicaid himself in 2015 after the state Legislature opted not to pass a bill expanding the program. But Dunleavy has criticized the move during campaign events and said at a recent debate that “we need to make sure the programs we have in place are managed well.” One of Dunleavy’s six major policy planks is cutting state spending.

Walker said as he dropped out that Dunleavy would “cause the most vulnerable to suffer the brunt of the additional $1 billion in budget cuts he vows to make to education, rural Alaska and those receiving health care.”

In campaign ads, Begich has made pledges on “guaranteeing school funding” and criticized Dunleavy for cutting “funds for law enforcement.” By contrast, Dunleavy’s website lists reducing state spending as one of his six major policy points while also bringing “jobs and investment into Alaska.”

Halcro said that Dunleavy’s campaign is echoing the populist conservative themes of a recent governor: Sarah Palin. But he cautioned that one reason this year’s race could be closer than Palin’s 2006 election is that the state’s budget situation has changed for the worse.

“Dunleavy is playing the same role that Palin played 12 years ago,” Halcro said, positing that “today, it doesn’t work. You have a state that has a much more dire fiscal situation so the stakes are much higher.”