This month’s special Senate election in Alabama has already been the target of more outside spending than any congressional race in the state’s history. By the time the final FEC reports are filed, it will likely be the state’s record-holder in candidate spending, too.

In 2016, nine states saw their most expensive congressional election ever. With no presidential election to distract donors from down-ballot races, which states can look forward to record-setting races in 2018?

Missouri (Claire McCaskill), Indiana (Joe Donnelly), Montana (Jon Tester) and North Dakota (Heidi Heitkamp) will almost certainly see record spending. West Virginia, where Joe Manchin cruised to victories in 2010 and 2012, is a strong favorite to break its record of $21.1 million. Let’s start with a safe prediction: Virtually every hotly contested Senate race in 2012 will be a major target again in 2018, particularly races with a Democratic incumbent in a red state. (With so few seats up for grabs, even a moderately competitive Senate election usually attracts more money than any House race). That means(Claire McCaskill),(Joe Donnelly),(Jon Tester) and(Heidi Heitkamp) will almost certainly see record spending., where Joe Manchin cruised to victories in 2010 and 2012, is a strong favorite to break its record of $21.1 million.

Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Wisconsin — all currently rated “Lean D” or “Likely D” by the Massachusetts, Connecticut and even Virginia, all among the 10 most expensive Senate races of 2012, are unlikely to attract the same attention as six years ago. Some other states that are still recovering from record-setting elections in 2014 or 2016 might have a tougher time breaking their own records. If 2018 turns out to be a good year for Democrats, races inand— all currently rated “Lean D” or “Likely D” by the Cook Political Report — may not attract as much spending as their 2016 counterparts.and even, all among the 10 most expensive Senate races of 2012, are unlikely to attract the same attention as six years ago.

Michigan, also rated “Likely D”, could be different. The state had a top-tier Senate race in 2012, but incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) eventually defeated Rep. Pete Hoekstra by 21 percentage points. Another Republican representative, Fred Upton, is , also rated “Likely D”, could be different. The state had a top-tier Senate race in 2012, but incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) eventually defeated Rep. Pete Hoekstra by 21 percentage points. Another Republican representative, Fred Upton, is reportedly considering challenging Stabenow. Upton was the 16th-richest House member in 2014 , but he could face an even wealthier primary challenger in musician Robert Ritchie (Kid Rock).

Nevada and Arizona are widely viewed as the Democrats’ only real chances to pick up Republican Senate seats in 2018. Jeff Flake’s race in Arizona — which could have a contested primary on both sides of the aisle — will likely beat the $47.8 million spent on his 2012 election. Nevada’s Dean Heller is widely viewed as the most vulnerable Republican incumbent, but his race will have a tougher time topping the $118.8 million spent on Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto’s open-seat victory last year.

New Jersey is another state that hasn’t seen a top-dollar race in a long time due to its status as a reliably blue state. That could change this cycle if incumbent Sen. Robert Menendez’ is another state that hasn’t seen a top-dollar race in a long time due to its status as a reliably blue state. That could change this cycle if incumbent Sen. Robert Menendez’ corruption trial results in his removal from the Senate. If that happens, Republican Gov. Chris Christie would appoint a replacement and instantly make New Jersey the Democrats’ top Senate target.

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Along with Idaho, Maine is one of only two states whose most expensive election was for the House rather than the Senate (Bruce Poliquin’s victory in 2016). That’s because Maine’s popular Republican senators repeatedly turned back Democratic challenges with ease. When Olympia Snowe retired in 2012, Democrats coalesced around independent former Gov. Angus King, who won handily as Barack Obama carried the state for a second time. Now, however, King is running for re-election in a state that the most recent Democratic presidential candidate carried by 3 points rather than 15. Cook analysis shows the race leaning toward King; every Senate race that Cook viewed as “leaning” or “toss-up” in September 2015 ended up seeing at least $29 million in spending, which would easily beat the Maine record of $17.2 million.

Idaho and Wyoming are the only states that have never experienced the joy of an election with eight-digit spending and are unlikely to have competitive general elections this cycle; however, Rep. Raul Labrador’s retirement means that Idaho’s 1st District could have a competitive Republican primary, and Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso (R) may spend some of his war chest just to deter challengers. Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) is still considering retirement, which could create a high-dollar open seat primary. In Maryland, David Trone — whose self-funding in the Democratic primary almost single-handedly made Maryland’s 8th District the Mississippi could face a replay of the 2014 battle for Thad Cochran’s seat, which saw $23.8 million in spending mostly on the primary. Finally, there are some states so firmly in one party’s column that most of the spending takes place during primary season.andare the only states that have never experienced the joy of an election with eight-digit spending and are unlikely to have competitive general elections this cycle; however, Rep. Raul Labrador’s retirement means that Idaho’s 1st District could have a competitive Republican primary, and Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso (R) may spend some of his war chest just to deter challengers.Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) is still considering retirement, which could create a high-dollar open seat primary. In, David Trone — whose self-funding in the Democratic primary almost single-handedly made Maryland’s 8th District the top race in 2016 for candidate spending — is running again. Trone will need to reach a little deeper into his pockets to beat the state record of $26 million spent on a single race. And if Steve Bannon follows through on his threat to coordinate super PAC spending against Trump-wary Republican senators, Roger Wicker incould face a replay of the 2014 battle for Thad Cochran’s seat, which saw $23.8 million in spending mostly on the primary.

It’s hard to say whether any race will come close to last year’s Pennsylvania Senate election, which set a congressional spending record with $176.9 million. It only takes a single self-funder or dedicated super PAC to push a race’s spending into eight digits; nine digits requires sustained efforts by both parties. That’s what we saw in the recent special election in Georgia’s 6th District, the most expensive House election ever. Consider that a preview of what’s to come when newly energized donors and newly formed super PACs turn their attention to marquee Senate matchups.

Most Expensive Races by State (1990-2016)

Cycle Race Candidate Spending Outside Spending Total Spending Winner 2016 PAS1 $52,769,343 $124,106,333 $176,875,676 Pat Toomey (R) 2016 NHS1 $38,148,997 $88,602,242 $126,751,239 Maggie Hassan (D) 2016 NVS2 $30,872,476 $87,895,016 $118,767,492 Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 2014 NCS1 $37,834,040 $77,179,257 $115,013,297 Thom Tillis (R) 2016 FLS2 $59,900,893 $50,486,146 $110,387,039 Marco Rubio (R) 2014 COS2 $33,809,207 $64,313,875 $98,123,082 Cory Gardner (R) 2016 OHS2 $38,438,004 $53,826,270 $92,264,274 Rob Portman (R) 2000 NYS1 $91,808,394 $0 $91,808,394 Hillary Clinton (D) 2012 MAS1 $82,390,661 $8,085,500 $90,476,161 Elizabeth Warren (D) 2014 KYS1 $53,767,626 $33,557,562 $87,325,188 Mitch McConnell (R) 2012 VAS1 $33,911,234 $52,411,186 $86,322,420 Tim Kaine (D) 2014 IAS2 $29,633,134 $55,071,145 $84,704,279 Joni Ernst (R) 2010 CTS2 $78,409,556 $3,076,580 $81,486,136 Richard Blumenthal (D) 2012 WIS1 $35,211,111 $46,249,433 $81,460,544 Tammy Baldwin (D) 2000 NJS1 $78,920,582 $0 $78,920,582 Jon S Corzine (D) 1996 TXS1 $75,142,174 $0 $75,142,174 Phil Gramm (R) 2004 ILS2 $75,118,023 $0 $75,118,023 Barack Obama (D) 2014 GAS1 $45,355,908 $29,516,290 $74,872,198 David Perdue (R) 2016 INS2 $29,247,606 $45,414,406 $74,662,012 Todd Young (R) 2016 MOS1 $28,990,359 $43,550,018 $72,540,377 Roy Blunt (R) 2014 ARS1 $28,527,442 $36,378,155 $64,905,597 Tom Cotton (R) 2014 LAS1 $38,459,712 $25,028,218 $63,487,930 Bill Cassidy (R) 1998 CAS1 $60,768,847 $0 $60,768,847 Barbara Boxer (D) 2014 AKS1 $20,939,613 $38,550,783 $59,490,396 Dan Sullivan (R) 2010 WAS2 $28,912,622 $22,678,313 $51,590,935 Patty Murray (D) 2014 MIS1 $22,645,550 $27,177,988 $49,823,538 Gary Peters (D) 2012 MTS1 $22,896,074 $25,074,044 $47,970,118 Jon Tester (D) 2012 AZS2 $24,232,572 $23,555,639 $47,788,211 Jeff Flake (R) 2008 MNS1 $46,077,150 $0 $46,077,150 Al Franken (D) 2006 TNS1 $44,411,610 $0 $44,411,610 Bob Corker (R) 2004 SDS1 $36,005,713 $0 $36,005,713 John Thune (R) 2014 KSS1 $15,399,144 $17,633,119 $33,032,263 Pat Roberts (R) 2012 NDS2 $12,953,841 $17,095,317 $30,049,158 Heidi Heitkamp (D) 2012 NES1 $18,059,208 $9,005,817 $27,065,025 Deb Fischer (R) 2006 MDS1 $25,980,243 $0 $25,980,243 Ben Cardin (D) 2004 SCS1 $24,561,660 $0 $24,561,660 Jim DeMint (R) 2014 MSS1 $11,782,095 $11,975,657 $23,757,752 Thad Cochran (R) 2012 NMS1 $15,651,593 $6,069,046 $21,720,639 Martin Heinrich (D) 1996 ORS1 $21,210,615 $0 $21,210,615 Gordon Smith (R) 2010 WVS1 $10,263,027 $10,928,824 $21,191,851 Joe Manchin (D) 2006 VTS1 $20,757,465 $0 $20,757,465 Bernie Sanders (I) 2016 ME02 $6,989,595 $10,195,005 $17,184,600 Bruce Poliquin (R) 2012 UTS1 $14,479,256 $1,821,090 $16,300,346 Orrin G Hatch (R) 2006 RIS1 $16,082,056 $0 $16,082,056 Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 2010 DES2 $13,931,605 $1,802,689 $15,734,294 Chris Coons (D) 2012 HIS2 $12,435,328 $2,693,200 $15,128,528 Mazie K Hirono (D) 2004 OKS1 $14,994,202 $0 $14,994,202 Tom Coburn (R) 2016 ALS2 $12,922,222 $1,014,358 $13,936,580 Richard C Shelby (R) 2014 ID02 $3,430,231 $3,135,422 $6,565,653 Mike Simpson (R) 2014 WYS2 $5,483,084 $158,649 $5,641,733 Mike Enzi (R)

Numbers not adjusted for inflation.



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