Geoff Pender

The Clarion-Ledger

The potential for the first truly competitive gubernatorial race in Mississippi in 16 years is creating a political buzz even three years out from the 2019 statewide elections.

Two popular and powerful politicians, Republican Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves and Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood, are eyeing the open seat Gov. Phil Bryant will leave. Neither has officially announced a candidacy. But Reeves running is considered a foregone conclusion by GOP leaders. Democrats are pushing Hood to run as they have for years, but this go ‘round he appears to be seriously testing the water, fundraising and meeting with campaign operatives.

"I do think he wants to run and I do think he will run, and I think a lot of people are encouraging him to run,” said Marty Wiseman, political science professor and longtime former director of the Stennis Institute of Government. “… I do know that Hood is asking a lot of questions and doing a lot of investigative work on who does polling and who does strategizing. It’s more than just pondering.”

But Alan Lange, founder of the Republican-leaning Y’all Politics blog, doubts Hood will actually run for governor.

“I think it’s good politics for him to be talking about it because it clears the field on his side of the aisle,” Lange said. “However, I just don't sense he has the stomach to run against an extremely well-funded Tate Reeves unless political winds change drastically … Both he and his mentor (former AG) Mike Moore before him have a history of not answering the bell for higher office in the past.”

Many Democratic leaders believe Hood running on top of the ticket could provide a sorely needed boost after last year’s dismal showing. A little-known and unfunded truck driver, Robert Gray, astonishingly won the party’s gubernatorial nomination. He didn’t vote for himself in the primary and wasn’t around immediately after his victory because he was hauling a load of sweet potatoes out of state. Many Democrats were demolished down the ticket in the general, giving the GOP a state House supermajority for the first time since Reconstruction.

Reeves has been full-on politicking across the state for months and doing something he does well: fundraising. Reports aren’t due for months, but Republican politicos estimate he’ll have around $3 million by early next year and potentially double that come the start of real campaigning.

In one of the reddest states in the country that has elected Republican governors exclusively and statewide officeholders mostly since 2003, Reeves is considered the heir apparent. He’s now a seasoned politician, he runs a tight ship with his campaigns, and he won his two general elections for lieutenant governor by 80 percent and 60 percent.

But Hood, who’s been called “the last Democrat in Dixie” and is the state’s lone Democratic statewide elected official, has been an anomaly for that same period of time. He hasn’t just squeaked by as well-funded Republicans challenged him for AG. He’s trounced them, receiving a large crossover Republican vote.

How has he managed this, in a state that has voted overwhelmingly Republican on most other top-ticket races? Opinions vary.

“I think he speaks directly to Mississippians in a completely earnest way and has shown he’s fighting for all of us,” said David McDowell, director of the Mississippi Democratic Trust. “Mississippians recognize real.”

Republican politico and author Andy Taggart said: “I think people respect (Hood) as not being just a wild-eyed liberal on key social issues, that he appears to be a man of genuine faith and that matters to people of Mississippi, and that he does not march to the drumbeat of the national party.”

State Sen. Chris McDaniel, a leader of the conservative and tea party movements in the state GOP, said Hood has enjoyed voter forbearance as a Democrat while running for AG that he won’t get as a gubernatorial candidate.

“I just don’t believe Mississippi would elect a Democratic governor in this environment,” McDaniel said. “It’s one thing to elect a Democratic officeholder if they’re simply in a position of enforcing laws. It’s quite another to elect a Democratic governor or lieutenant governor, particularly those who are soft on fighting Obamacare.”

New state Democratic Party Chairman Bobby Moak said: “(Hood) has been right on the issues — law and order and protecting families and people’s homes. He speaks about these issues almost to monotony, and it’s everyday issues that he understands and that he does something about and that moms and dads and grandparents latch onto.”

Reeves, it would appear, views Hood as a political threat. At the recent Neshoba County Fair, he devoted much of his stump speech to bashing Hood, tying him to Washington Democrats and the national party. Should Hood and Reeves square off for governor, this will be an oft-recurring theme from Reeves.

Jonathan Compretta, who has managed past Hood campaigns, said this line of attack is a straw man and one that Hood has successfully fended off before.

“It doesn’t work,” Compretta said. “That’s just the sort of thing politicians say about Jim because they don’t really have anything else of substance. They try to use Obama’s name as some sort of weapon. It hasn’t worked. People realize Jim is independent … He doesn’t look at polls or anything else when he makes a decision about what to do. He just does the right thing and moves on.”

But Republican Party Chairman Joe Nosef said he believes that as AG Hood has been able to pick and choose his issues carefully and avoid many. He said he won’t be able to do that running for governor.

“When we get into the issues, people will wonder how in the world he could even be considered for governor,” Nosef said. “Jim Hood’s answer to everything is a lawsuit.”

Nosef joked that he hopes Gray the truck driver will run again and be the Democratic nominee atop the ticket.

“He really seemed like a nice fellow,” Nosef said.

Moak vowed that "you won’t see that happen again at the Democratic Party.” He said the party “has a good bench” of candidates. He said he can’t promise his party will have a serious challenger for every statewide race, but it will take the fight to Republicans in many in 2019.

Trial lawyer money

Reeves is a consummate fundraiser and planner, and the state Republican Party — although it’s suffered some in-fighting in recent years — has been playing chess with elections while the Democratic Party plays checkers. A Reeves gubernatorial campaign will be well-funded and well-run, and, if he’s the GOP nominee, the state Republican machine will be cranked up for him.

“There’s the old phrase, Democrats fall in love and Republicans fall in line,” Wiseman said.

Hood likely won’t be able to lean on his state party for support and money — it’ll probably be the other way around: The party is looking for him for momentum and to help with fundraising down-ticket.

Running for governor in Mississippi is no longer a parochial, low-budget affair. Hood would have to raise $3 million or so just in hopes of being outspent only 2 to 1.

“You can’t just go rent a Winnebago and ride around the state — that’s almost a waste of time these days,” Wiseman said. “… Democrats are going to have to — I won’t say rebuild — but build their infrastructure and technology. You can’t run without the databases and get-out-the vote techniques and workers.”

But supporters note Hood has always been able to raise “enough” money.

“Take into consideration what his opponents have raised, plus what third-party groups spent — he’s always been outspent,” Compretta said. “But that said, he’s raised what he needed.”

Wiseman said he expects “the trial lawyers will be getting re-engaged if he is the candidate.”

“That used to be where the strong Democratic Party got the majority of its money,” Wiseman said. “They took the hit with tort reform and turned that spigot off. I think if Hood can tap back into that, he can raise money.”

Hood also has the potential to convince the national Democratic Party he stands a chance and receive help and funding from Washington.

Moak says the national party “has not written Mississippi off as red” and he’s been encouraged by conversations about getting its help.

But Reeves and the GOP have worked hard and will continue to try to make both those sources of money politically toxic.

“Lawsuit money and trial lawyer influence — we have just barely gotten out of the Wall Street Journal editorial pages of being the worse place for jackpot justice,” Nosef said. “… Dickie Scruggs has gotten out of prison. He still has a bunch of money. Maybe he can help (Hood).”

One of Hood’s responses in the past, and a likely one in the future, is that he and trial lawyers have brought in $3 billion to the state in lawsuit settlements or judgments against companies that wronged Mississippians.

A Republican primary?

One major question for a Reeves gubernatorial candidacy is whether he would face a serious challenge in a Republican primary. That would help a Democratic challenger, if Reeves or another eventual GOP nominee had to spend down their war chest and be softened by political fire before the general.

At this point, no potential serious Republican challenger to Reeves has surfaced. Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann appears to be eyeing the lieutenant governor post and Treasurer Lynn Fitch the attorney general seat. House Speaker Philip Gunn hasn’t shown any overt 2019 gubernatorial aspirations nor have other obvious potential candidates.

But that could change. The lure of an open seat for governor is strong, and Reeves has at times butted heads with fellow Republicans, and it’s nearly impossible to run the Senate as lieutenant governor without making some enemies.

“If you asked a year ago, I’d have said (a GOP primary) was pretty likely,” Taggart said. “Now, I don’t know that we will see anyone else who would be considered a top-tier candidate … But Gov. Haley Barbour used to say, ‘the Republican nomination is a valuable thing, and few people are going to get it without some challenge from someone.’”

Nosef said, “I think it’s probably 50-50” on whether there would be a serious Republican primary for governor next cycle.

McDaniel, a Republican who has at times been at odds with Reeves in the Senate, said he thinks a Republican primary for governor in 2019 is definite.

“I say that only because in this type of environment, I don’t believe that any politician is safe, including me, and that’s a good thing,” McDaniel said. “I think primaries as a general rule are a good thing to make politicians more responsible to the rule of the people. I think conservative primaries are an even better thing, to force Republicans to be accountable to the people.”

McDaniel’s name has come up as potential for statewide office after his narrow loss for U.S. Senate in 2014. He said he hasn’t decided anything but, “I believe there will be challengers up and down the ticket.”

Lobbyist and politico Hayes Dent said he believes the size of the field for governor and other offices “depends on what the Legislature does over the ’17 and ’18 sessions” and how the budget and economy fare.

Dent says he believes Hosemann will run for lieutenant governor, but beyond that “it looks like there will be a lot of musical chairs.” Dent said a Reeves-Hood matchup “would certainly be a barn burner of a race.”

McDowell said: “I think we are going to have three years of opportunity for Republicans to make a strong case for electing Democrats in 2019 … and I agree with Chairman Moak, we are going to have a great slate of candidates this time.”

Said Nosef: “Good policy makes good politics, and we’ve just got to continue to show the public how meaningful it is for a Republican majority to exist … Obviously, (Democrats') biggest asset is that they start with such a high floor vote for governor. A steering wheel could run and get 41 percent of the vote.”

Nosef has also been mentioned by politicos as a possible candidate for statewide office in 2019.

“As far as you know, I don’t have any thoughts of running for office,” was Nosef’s response.

Compretta said last week that Hood still has not decided on a gubernatorial run in 2019.

“That is obviously a decision that Jim and his family would have to make,” Compretta said. “I know he’s gotten a lot of encouragement. At the end of the day, what Jim will weigh is whether he believes he can make a difference. I definitely think he can.”

Contact Geoff Pender at 601-961-7266 or gpender@jackson.gannett.com. Follow @GeoffPender on Twitter.

QUOTES

"I do think he wants to run and I do think he will run and I think a lot of people are encouraging him to run." — Marty Wiseman

"... I just don't sense he has the stomach to run against an extremely well-funded Tate Reeves unless political winds change drastically ... Both he and his mentor Mike Moore before him have a history of not answering the bell for higher office in the past. If Hood had fire in the belly to be governor, Mississippi Democrats wouldn't have had a truck driver for a nominee in 2015." — Alan Lange

"There's nothing that would be more exciting for me as chairman than to see Jim Hood ink up those papers for running." — Bobby Moak

"I think we have to plan for Jim Hood to be just as tough a candidate as he has been in the past three cycles ... A steering wheel could run and get 41 percent of the vote ... I don't think it could happen, but we are still obsessing over that, because we realize how we could easily lose if the right mix of the planets line up." — Joe Nosef

"(Reeves) is going to be tough to beat, from a money standpoint, and in so many other ways ... But I do think Hood could give him a serious race." — Wayne Weidie

"You've got two statewide elected officials who have both won their races overwhelmingly and are both very formidable." — Andy Taggart

The (presumed) candidates

Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves

Republican

Age: 42

Hometown: Florence

Political history: First elected state treasurer in 2003, served two terms; elected lieutenant governor in 2011; re-elected 2015.

Winning percentages in general elections: For treasurer: 52 percent, 60 percent

For lieutenant governor: 80 percent, 60 percent

Attorney General Jim Hood

Democrat

Age: 54

Hometown: New Houlka

Political history: Served eight years as district attorney for north Mississippi's 3rd Judicial District; first elected attorney general in 2003; re-elected 2007, 2011 and 2015.

Winning percentages in general elections for AG: 63 percent, 60 percent; 61 percent, 55 percent