The biggest shift towards AAP was observed among the illiterate and school pass-out sections. (PTI photo)

With a turnout of 67 per cent, elections in Delhi concluded on Saturday, and pollsters are back in business.

The India Today-Axis My India post-poll survey, which has a stellar record of predicting correct election results, has projected that the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) might win 59-68 out of 70 seats in the Delhi Assembly. The BJP is predicted to be a distant runner-up with 2-11 seats. Congress is expected to draw a blank.

Barely nine months back had AAP failed to win a single seat in Delhi in the Lok Sabha elections. So how did this transition happen? The answer lies in the details of the post-poll study conducted by India Today-Axis My India on more than 14,000 respondents.

India Today Data Intelligence Unit (DIU) scanned through the educational and occupational profiles of the respondents and compared them with the post-poll survey of 2019 Lok Sabha election.

Our analysis showed that the mass exodus of voters towards AAP was more pronounced among the lesser educated and working class.

Education-wise voting preferences

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, people from all educational backgrounds had overwhelmingly supported the BJP across the country. So was the case in Delhi. Whether illiterate or graduate/post-graduate, BJP was the most preferred party; Congress stood second and AAP third.

In the 2020 Delhi assembly elections, barring professional degree holders (B.E., M.B.B.S., B.Tech., M.E., M. Tech., MBA) who were hardly two per cent of the total respondents, AAP was the leading party across all educational backgrounds.

The biggest shift towards AAP was observed among the illiterate and school pass-out sections. AAP got 23 per cent votes from illiterate voters in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The number climbed up to almost three times 66 per cent in 2020.

Likewise, 8th pass, 10th pass and 12th pass voters also showed a massive shift towards AAP.

Interestingly, as the level of education goes up, the competition between AAP and BJP intensifies. For instance, the vote percentage difference between AAP and BJP was 42 per cent, which reduced to 5 per cent for graduate voters and 2 per cent for post-graduate voters. Among professional graduate voters, BJP was still more preferred than AAP, though the number of such respondents was quite low.

Occupation-wise voting preferences

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, BJP was chosen by people across all occupational categories. In the Delhi assembly polls, barring professionals (doctor/ advocate/ engineer/ CA), AAP was the most preferred party across all occupations.

Here, labourers and skilled professionals (electrician/ plumber/ guide/ pandit/ technician/ carpenter/ auto driver/ driver) gravitated towards AAP the most. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, 21 per cent labourers and 14 per cent skilled professionals had voted for AAP, which increased to 62 per cent and 54 per cent in the 2020 Delhi elections almost a 40 per cent increase in nine months.

Among AAP’s top voters, labourers (62 per cent), housewives (60 per cent) and unemployed (57 per cent) were at the top.

Who lost out?

Exit polls show the BJP is most likely to lose big in the Delhi assembly elections. However, it is to be noted here that the BJP has kept its voters intact. Rather, it is Congress voters who have shown massive support towards AAP.

Between 2019 Lok Sabha and 2020 Delhi assembly polls, BJP lost almost 10 per cent votes across all professions. Congress, on the other hand, lost 24.5 per cent (across all categories), while AAP gained 37.5 per cent. This means a massive chunk of AAP’s supporters come from Congress.

Similarly, across all educational qualifications, BJP lost hardly 6 per cent votes on an average and Congress 25 per cent, while AAP’s average gain was 33 per cent.