A pair of five-star prospects will commit Wednesday during the first day of the Early Signing Period. Justin Flowe and Jordan Burch have the opportunity to shift the balance of power in college football.

Sound hyperbolic? It’s not.

The recruiting industry got its start in 2002, and since then every single national championship participant had at least one five-star recruit on its roster. Elite players are both game changers and pied pipers, equally impactful on the field and on the recruiting trail. You simply can’t compete without them.

Recruiting is 247Sports’ specialty, and the Early Signing Period is Christmas come early for our network. That’s why 247Sports likes to remind people of an unquestionable college football truth before all the madness begins: Recruiting rankings matter.

Development, culture and a myriad of other things influence a team’s path toward championships. But you can’t win at the highest level in college football without a strong recruiting base. Think about the 2019 College Football Playoff. Clemson, LSU, Ohio State and Oklahoma each rank within the top 10 of the 247Sports Team Talent Composite. Those teams average eight five-star prospects each.

Urban Meyer called recruiting the “lifeblood” of his programs. Nick Saban once famously complained the 2012 national championship “cost me a week of recruiting.” Dabo Swinney might claim he’s “not trying to win any recruiting wars.” But you know how he got his start at Clemson? As the Tigers’ ace recruiter.

Recruiting. It matters.

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Here’s a little context of the rankings we so often cite. The recruiting industry got its start in 2002 with Rivals and Scout. ESPN first introduced its rankings in 2006, while 247Sports’ first full rankings debuted in 2011. 247Sports also designed the 247Sports Composite, which combines the three major services (Scout merged with 247Sports in 2017) into a single industry consensus.

Taking that 2002 jumping-off point, 247Sports looked at the last 16 years of national championship games and their participants. Among the 14 different teams to appear in a national championship game during that time, not a single program reached the title game without a five-star player on its roster.

That doesn’t mean five-star prospects were stacked amongst each team. Some, like Alabama a year ago (18), have far more than others. Oregon, in 2010 and 2014, had just three five-star prospects.

What those five-star talents represent is a program’s overall recruiting prowess. The ability to land a five star indicates a program’s recruiting acumen. There might not be an abundance of five-star players on the roster, but if you have one five-star than you're bound to have plenty of four-stars too. Rare is the occasion a school attracts a banner prospect without a strong recruiting foundation behind him.

"If you’re a program landing a five-star, you’re a program capable of landing difference makers across the board," 247Sports Director of Recruiting Steve Wiltfong said in 2016.

To that point, of the 34 rosters to compete in the last 17 national title games, 32 of them were formed with at least one top 10 class. Only Oregon, again, was an exception. But even the Ducks were built with fringe top-10 classes; from 2010 to 2012 Oregon finished 13th, 12th and 13th respectively in the 247Sports Composite Team Recruiting Rankings.

Nothing changed in 2019. All four of the CFB Playoff participants claim at least two top 10 classes and five five-star players. Different systems and styles span this 17-year period. One thing stayed the same – a strong talent base.

"When you look at the top programs that are perennial national championship contenders, you typically will see not only true difference makers at the top, but a roster that isn't simply highlight by blue-chip prospects, but built with high-end talent from the foundation," 247Sports national recruiting analyst Charles Power said. "Having the middle and bottom of the roster loaded with former top prospects adds a buffer for attrition via injuries and transfers in addition to establishing a developmental pipeline."

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It’s not just national championship participants whose on-field victories correlate strongly with recruiting success. You can find evidence looking at the top 10 of the final Associated Press poll each season. (Note: We used the AP Poll as an overall representative since our data spans both the BCS and College Football Playoff eras)

With the beginning of our own rankings in mind, 247Sports traced the top 10 of the final AP Poll back to 2011 – using the final AP poll of the 2019 regular season – to see how many of those teams featured at least one five-star player and a top 10 class.

Looking at the nine seasons, just 16 top 10 teams lacked a five-star player: 2019 (Baylor), 2018 (Washington State), 2017 (Penn State, Wisconsin, UCF, TCU), 2016 (Washington, Wisconsin), 2015 (TCU, Houston, Iowa), 2014 (TCU, Georgia Tech), 2013 (UCF), 2011 (Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Boise State, Stanford).

Of the 90 year-end top 10 teams we examined, just 20 percent of them managed to land in the top 10 without inking a five-star prospect.

Overall, 57 percent of teams that ended in the Top 10 of the final AP poll featured at least one top 10 haul in. Every year but 2011 at least five teams in the final Top 10 met that recruiting criteria – you’ll remember 2011 as the season Alabama and LSU played for the national championship from the same conference.

Teams featuring at least one top 10 class made up 73 percent of the teams ranked in the final top 5 from 2011-19.

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It’s important to acknowledge strong recruiting does not guarantee on-field results; it's necessary but not sufficient. Programs with elite recruiting are perfectly capable of performing below the level of their talent. Others have found ways to rise above.

For example, Texas hasn’t finished worse than 25th in the 247Sports Composite rankings with five top 10 classes to its credit since 2011. The Longhorns have still managed to lose at least four games a season every year of that stretch.

Wisconsin hasn’t had a recruiting class rank better than 29th in the last seven years – its 2012 class slotted 65th – but still managed four top 11 finishes during that period.

Mostly, though, sustained winners maintain a flowing talent pipeline.

Alabama is the sport’s gold standard. A major reason why is the Crimson Tide compiled seven straight No. 1 overall recruiting classes from 2011-17 plus another in 2019. That’s translated to nine straight appearances in the top 10 at season’s end.

Right behind the Crimson Tide in terms of Top 10 finishes – counting the current AP Poll standings – over the last nine years are Ohio State (7), Clemson (6), Oklahoma (6), Georgia (5) and Oregon (5). The Buckeyes have the nation’s second-most talented roster. The Sooners, meanwhile, produced back-to-back Heisman winners in 2017-18, the last of which (Kyler Murray) rated as a five-star recruit. Georgia’s inked three straight top three recruiting classes. Oregon’s classes between 2015-18 averaged out to 19th nationally. The Ducks’ classes from 2010-12 had an average finish of 12.7. That’s a good place to start if you’re looking to explain the team’s 29-22 record between 2015-18. Unsurprisingly, the Ducks surged back into contention after signing the best class in program history last cycle.

Some programs like TCU, Baylor and Iowa have popped up in the Top 10 for a year or two. But without a steady year-to-year recruiting trove, their results fluctuate. TCU and Iowa went a combined 14-12 one year after a Top 10 finish in 2015.

Other factors certainly contribute to these falls. Baylor is especially an example of that. But it’s hard for Power Five programs to win consistently without exceptional recruiting classes.

That’s why signatures from players like Burch and Flowe could shift the recruiting landscape.

Burch, the No. 5 overall player in the country, is considering many of the usual suspects (Alabama, Georgia, Clemson). Flowe, the No. 4 prospect in the 2020 class, is doing the same with Clemson. Both prospects could also go against the grain and subtly alter the national landscape.

Flowe could pick Oregon and signal Oregon’s new status as the West Coast’s alpha. He might stay home at USC and stabilize the Trojans’ floundering 2019 effort; USC ranks 80th nationally. Flowe choosing the Trojans would instantly shift the narrative surrounding Clay Helton. Burch staying home in Columbia to play for South Carolina would do much the same for a Gamecocks program coming off a 4-8 season.

One recruit can change everything for a program. When you stack those elite talents up, they create the opportunity for championships.

That’s why recruiting matters.