Let’s take a trip to Fantasy Island.

You won’t get a tan, a mai tai or a souvenir T-shirt on this island, but you will get a glimpse of the A’s future.

The immediate future of the A’s, on the field, was decided by Wednesday’s American League wild-card game against the Yankees in New York. Oakland lost and it’s on to next season. For the organization, however, the long-term goal is a new ballpark, maybe on Fantasy Island.

Fantasy Island is actually Howard Terminal, a huge parking lot for shipping containers. It sits on the Oakland Estuary, a few blocks from Jack London Square.

The A’s have narrowed their search for a ballpark site to Howard Terminal and the Coliseum, where they currently play. Team President Dave Kaval says the team will pick a site by the end of this year, and the new stadium will be ready for the 2023 season.

That seems like fantasy to A’s fans, who have endured decades of missteps, fake-outs and dead-ends by the team in its quest for a new ballpark. However, under Kaval’s leadership since November 2016, the fantasy has edged closer to reality.

I visited Howard Terminal to determine whether it is a desolate, wind-ravaged and polluted wasteland, as portrayed by some critics — including the team itself a couple of years ago — or a charming waterfront site with great fixer-upper potential.

“Island” is poetic license, although there is water on one side of Howard Terminal, and it is cut off from civilization by railroad tracks, a freeway and other obstacles. But the romantic-island allusion is helpful in picturing 50 acres as a boutique ballyard surrounded by a hip village, as the A’s envision.

Along with my visits, I interviewed Kaval, Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf and others, for updates and insights.

Kaval spoke by phone from the A’s corporate offices at Jack London Square, with a view of Howard Terminal.

How is the view?

The ever-enthusiastic Kaval waxed poetic. He sees Howard Terminal as another Wrigley Field or AT&T Park, ballparks surrounded by vibrant urban communities.

“You’ve been to AT&T (the Giants’ ballpark), maybe PNC (Pittsburgh’s riverside ballpark), there’s an allure to being on the water,” Kaval said. “I’m sitting here looking at Howard Terminal. ... This is a beautiful part of the Bay Area. One of the best views probably in the entire state of California. ... You have an active waterway, the estuary, boats going up and down. There are things to see.”

The waterfront adds charm to the site, but a ballpark would not face the water directly, the way the Giants’ ballpark faces McCovey Cove. Contrary to earlier artist renderings, an A’s ballpark here would not directly face south to the estuary because of MLB sun-angle requirements. So no home runs hit into Kaval Kove.

Kaval said there are three potential configurations: the ballpark facing the northeast (Oakland skyline), southeast (partial view of estuary and Alameda) or east (downtown, with a bit of estuary).

How’s the weather?

Weather is a vital factor. Remember Candlestick Park? Last year, Matier & Ross reported that the A’s conducted a climate study at Howard Terminal and found it extremely cold and windy. Kaval declined to show me the weather study but painted a rosier picture.

“We know the weather’s better (at Howard Terminal) than at AT&T,” he said. “We’ve studied it, we have a report, it’s clear. The key thing about the weather in the East Bay is you’re not subjected to the fog. ... There is more wind at the Howard Terminal site than at the Coliseum. We’ve done a lot of work comparing (Howard Terminal) to the Coliseum. The ambient temperatures and thermal comfort (at HT) is pretty similar to where we currently play.”

I visited the site on two late afternoons, the windiest times, and found it breezy but pleasant.

“It can get windy,” said Gayle Byrd, a security guard checking in trucks at the terminal entrance. “We’re not protected by anything. It’s not too-too cold, but there’s a lot of soot and dust blowing sometimes. And smoke bellows out of whatever they burn (at next-door Schnitzer Steel). They burn a big incinerator and you see the smoke.”

How will fans get there?

Fan access is an issue. Parking would be limited, although Kaval said there are 9,000 parking spots within a mile. The nearest BART station is about a 25-minute walk, an urban wilderness adventure.

“We’re looking for multiple ways (for fans) to access the site,” Kaval said. “There’s going to be no silver bullet. It’s going to require multiple modes.”

He mentioned ferries and a gondola, “which is something we’re spending a lot of time researching ... and could move up to 6,000 people per hour.”

(Note: Los Angeles is studying a proposal for a similar Union Station-to-Dodger Stadium gondola.)

What’s the deal with that big-dog neighbor?

One enormous hurdle is Schnitzer Steel, a busy and noisy scrap-metal processing operation next door to Howard Terminal. Schnitzer officials have long expressed opposition to a ballpark here, at least partly because of likely disruption to the steady stream of big trucks rolling in and out of Schnitzer all day along the narrow access road that the company would share with a busy ballpark.

An agreement would have to be reached. Schnitzer could sell and move, but that’s a slim possibility, because the company loads ships at its dock, and would be hard-pressed to find a comparable location.

Asked if Schnitzer would be willing to move, company spokesman Adam Simons said, “Schnitzer Steel is a large, industrial facility, and it’s no small undertaking (to move), that’s for certain.”

Simons, when asked if Schnitzer opposes a ballpark next door, said carefully, “I think that the existing infrastructure issues at that site are well-documented. Schnitzer’s hope is that the A’s are able to build a ballpark that makes sense for all of Oakland.”

Lately, Schnitzer has been softening, at least publicly, its leave-us-alone-and-go-away message to the A’s. Schnitzer did recently warn the A’s that its noisiest grinding/shredding/crushing operations take place between 6 p.m. and 6 a.m. Hardly a ballpark ambiance-enhancer.

Kaval talked around questions about Schnitzer, not mentioning the company by name and saying, “We hope to craft a partnership (with all neighborhood interests) that’s a win for everyone.”

On the possibility of paying Schnitzer to move, Kaval said, “We’re focused right now on co-existing with all the stakeholders on both properties.”

Schaaf said, “As I’ve talked to the A’s, they believe there’s a path to co-existence. Schnitzer is a very valuable business in our city. It is important that we preserve industrial uses on our working waterfront.”

Co-existence would be challenging.

Byrd, the security guard, noted, “There’s this fiber-looking stuff. It looks kind of like dirty cotton, you see it on the ground. (Inspectors) come out every so often to get samples. The man who collected it says it’s hazardous, but he wasn’t wearing a mask or anything.”

I don’t know the origin of the mystery substance that collects on the ground in clumps like steely dryer lint, but I did find a place where it could be harvested: along the railroad spur that runs next to Schnitzer.

I parked behind Schnitzer one night and took in the awesome show. Massive cranes, like playful mechanical dinosaurs, grab huge gobs of scrap metal and toss them onto a mountain of crushed cars and old refrigerators, which are fed into a colossal grinder/shredder.

The operation is more breathtaking than postgame fireworks, but seemingly not ballpark-friendly.

Are the trains a major annoyance, or romantic mood-enhancers?

Trains are part of the challenge and part of the charm of Howard Terminal. About 36 passenger trains roar past every day, and many freight trains.

“We get stopped (coming in and out of the Terminal) all the time by long, slow trains that go on forever, then stop and back up,” said Byrd, the security guard. “What if the pitcher’s getting ready to throw and you’re on the other side of the tracks, waiting for the train?”

A more positive spin, from Kaval: “Having the vitality of the trains running around can be exciting. It shows that the area has hustle and bustle to it.”

Will the politicians play ball with the A’s?

Schaaf said she has a “slight preference” for the Howard site over the Coliseum, but her main interests are that the A’s build a ballpark in Oakland, and that they do so without Oakland’s money.

The A’s waterfront option gained steam in late September when Gov. Jerry Brown signed a bill to prevent environmental complaints from significantly stalling the construction of a ballpark at the terminal.

I asked Schaaf if she worries about Oakland losing the A’s to another city.

“I think I’ve demonstrated that I’m very clear about my values,” the mayor said, “and that I don’t operate from a place of fear. I took the position that I took with the Raiders because I am very painfully reminded every year when we pass a budget about the bad deal that we got into to (entice) the Raiders to move back to Oakland. And I’m not going to repeat the mistakes of the past. I’m not going to prostitute my city’s future for the pride of having a sports team.”

Whichever site the team chooses, there will be major neighborhood upgrading. The A’s plan to do extensive commercial and residential development around their ballpark, creating a village.

And if the A’s choose Howard Terminal, Schaaf said, “I’m going to want to see a fantastic redevelopment of the Coliseum area that is going to be beneficial to the surrounding communities.”

Speculation and rumors fill the air. Such as: The A’s are pounding the Howard Terminal drum in order to leverage a better price on the Coliseum property. ... The A’s will wind up declaring no deal on both sites, going to MLB and saying, “Oakland is unworkable, let us move.” ... A’s owner John Fisher wants to get approval on both sites in order to enhance the team’s value so he can sell it.

I asked Schaaf if she is convinced that Fisher, typically stingy with his baseball money, plans to build a ballpark and isn’t just setting up a sale.

“I’m convinced John Fisher is serious about building a ballpark,” Schaaf said. “I have reasons to believe that he is not even thinking about selling the team. He is someone with deep roots in the Bay Area, and I believe that he is putting a lot of careful thought and energy, as well as his resources, into this project.”

But is Fisher’s alleged determination to build a ballpark in Oakland and Kaval’s drive and enthusiasm enough to make it happen?

The outlook is muddied by the fact that the A’s made an offer in March to buy the Coliseum site and are still awaiting a reply from the city and county, which jointly own the property. The clock is ticking on Kaval’s open-in-2023 timeline.

“We definitely have a schedule,” Kaval said. “This is important to the A’s, important to the community. It’s going to mean thousands of jobs, billions in economic development. We want to make sure we can look at both sites in an intelligent way. ... We don’t want (Howard Terminal) to be our only option. ... But at some point, we’re going to have to make a decision.”

Does that mean that a lack of response from the city and county might cause a delay in the ballpark timetable? Kaval didn’t give a definitive answer. So for A’s fans, the line between fantasy and reality remains blurred.

Scott Ostler is a San Francisco Chronicle columnist. Email: sostler@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @scottostler