A banner depicting Ayatollah Khamenei, being torn down by protesters in Iran on 30 Dec 2017. (Image: Screen grab of Twitter video)

The developments in Iran are so remarkable at this point that it wouldn’t surprise me to see a significant change in the regime, or a credible harbinger of change, in the next 2-3 days.

I’m not predicting such a change. But I am saying I wouldn’t be surprised to see it. Things are moving fast.

I promised you a timeline in the title, and that is further below. The grab-bag of updates here is not the timeline. I think you’ll find it worthwhile sticking around.

The individual updates are astonishing. First, a map view of how widespread the protests are. They’ve been spreading across Iran since Thursday, 28 December.

https://twitter.com/AlirezaEshraghi/status/947195031143747584

Map of #IranProtests, steadily spreading across the country pic.twitter.com/HhiQ6iLWOz — Lisa Daftari (@LisaDaftari) December 30, 2017

They are growing in dozens of cities. Some Iranians are pointing out how important it is that they are strong and growing in the peaceful, loyal hinterlands analogous to “flyover country” in America. In other words, this is not a single, urban demographic; this is the whole nation.

This is from a little town of 100,000 called Yasuj, somewhere in between Isfahan and Shiraz, not even on a main road. These places have long been considered the regime's base of support. pic.twitter.com/daFSm6sS6O — Borzou Daragahi ???????? (@borzou) December 30, 2017

Here's another clip from the town of Jahrom, a city of 115,000 about 100 miles southeast of Shiraz. This is Iran's flyover country. pic.twitter.com/IqAGvzX0yN — Borzou Daragahi ???????? (@borzou) December 30, 2017

Regime security forces have now felt it necessary to use lethal force, and appear to have killed as many as seven protesters, possibly in two locations (Khorramabad and Doroud; since Doroud is near Khorramabad, this may refer to the same incident, and mean only 3-4 deaths have occurred).

#Update72– In response to the death of four protesters-shot at by the #IRGC forces- protesters in #KhorramAbad burned the governor’s office. Governors in Iran are all have ties to the IRGC or security services.#IranProtests pic.twitter.com/jceF8pupjJ — Raman Ghavami (@Raman_Ghavami) December 30, 2017

#Iranprotests: Unconfirmed reports: Three killed as security forces open fire in the southern town of Doroud. In Shiraz, people take down Qaseem Soleimani poster. Chants in Tehran: Reformist, hardliner, the game is soon over. In Tehran, they take down Khamenei pix. pic.twitter.com/yxKPRvWtg5 — Ali Safavi (@amsafavi) December 30, 2017

Not clear where this occurred:

At least one small city – the whole city of Kashan – is said to be under the control of protesters as of Saturday evening. There is no word on whether that situation has remained static.

Hmmm… Big, if true. Seat of ancient Persian culture lying on main hwy between Tehran and Esfahan. But also bulwark of regime loyalty. Would be huge indicator https://t.co/UzKyUIQ2dk — J.E. Dyer (@OptimisticCon) December 30, 2017

https://twitter.com/AlirezaNader/status/947217147658465281

Access to the Internet has reportedly been shut down by the authorities. That happened in the late morning in the U.S. on 30 December, so it was later in the day on Saturday in Iran.

‘Iran cuts off internet access in several cities as mass protests continue’ #IranProtests

https://t.co/lqxBqMdgK6 — Rita Panahi (@RitaPanahi) December 30, 2017

This is something the U.S. can help protesters with. There is no need to go into detail on that; I hope the Trump administration is moving on it with alacrity.

I did notice a drop-off in longer videos and original tweets from inside Iran, after the report that the Internet was shut down. Much shorter video clips seem to be coming now from a few tweeps who apparently are still able to receive updates from inside the country.

In a relatively recent development, it was reported that protesters have taken over a radio station in the town of Arak, near Tehran.

Breaking: Iranian protestors now control the Radio/TV building and prison of the Arak town in central Iran. pic.twitter.com/QTawCi3uKj — PM Breaking News (@PMBreakingNews) December 30, 2017

That is interesting and significant, if it’s true. Arak is the site of Iran’s contentious plutonium reactor (including the heavy water production plant for it), and at any time is swarming with regime security presence. Protesters gaining control of an infrastructure element like a radio station in Arak would be a sign of at least audacity by the protesters, and perhaps organization and ability as well.

We’ll see what comes out of that if there is follow-on reporting.

A report is also circulating that a top member of the clerical council in Qom – the council headed by Ayatollah Khamenei – has expressed support for the popular protesters. That doesn’t mean anything specific is going to be conceded to the protesters. But it does mean, at the least, that at least some on the council see a need to appease the people. Perhaps it even portends genuine empathy with their position and concerns.

In nearly 40 years, I don’t recall ever seeing the council evince such a need to adapt before. It would presumably be because the protesters are boldly tearing down banners with Khamenei’s picture and burning them, right in front of armed security forces.

Khamenei is the focus of #iranprotests ire. His posters are being toppled all over Iran

pic.twitter.com/sT99pm2etY — Alireza Nader (@AlirezaNader) December 30, 2017

They’re doing the same thing to posters of Qassem Soleimani, the head of the IRGC Qods Force who a week ago was thought to be one of the most popular regime figures in the country.

In #Shiraz, #Iranian public tears up and burns the picture of Al Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, #IRGC's main man in #Syria #Iraq #Yemen, involved in multiple neighboring countries. #IranianProtests حمله انقلابیون خشمگین در شیراز به بنر… https://t.co/AIf8DYuRwJ — Ahmed Quraishi – TV Team (@Office_AQPk) December 30, 2017

And the Islamic Republic version of the Iranian flag:

A protester in #Iran burns an Iranian flag. This is the version of the flag with the word “Allah” on it which was added to flag after the Islamic Revolution of 1979. #IranProtests #تظاهرات_سراسرى #يحدث_الان_في_ايران #متحد_شویم #IranProtest pic.twitter.com/UCeASRO05w — Armin Navabi (@ArminNavabi) December 30, 2017

There are reports from across Iran of crowds chanting blessings on Reza Pahlavi, the son and heir of the late Shah (who lives in the United States).

The Iranian people are chanting, “Reza Shah, Bless Your Soul” Seems Iranians want to return to the way things were before the Islamic Revolution, Obama… you putz! #IranianProtests pic.twitter.com/q0ty0isUcL — Boston????????Bobblehead (@DBloom451) December 30, 2017

And the cry is being repeated across the country that Khamenei should step down, the people don’t want an Islamic Republic, and they are sick of the regime putting the nation’s resources into Hezbollah and foreign wars.

#Update60– This is very significant.#Abhar the stronghold of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei joined. This is massive.

Protesters are asking(respectfully) the supreme leader to step down.#IranProtests pic.twitter.com/rsWTylniAG — Raman Ghavami (@Raman_Ghavami) December 30, 2017

It should be noted the Iranian state-run media (like the American media ignoring the #IranianProtests, cuz it's bad for Obama) sez there are only 50 protesters w/a few leaders. These folks in Tehran are chanting, "Death to Khamenei." #IranProtests pic.twitter.com/ba3MmdS9fh — Boston????????Bobblehead (@DBloom451) December 30, 2017

Iranians in the city of #Mashhad

chant: "No Gaza, No Lebanon, our lives are devoted to Iran" expressing resentment towards Iran's Islamic regime for financially supporting #Hezbollah and #Hamas while ignoring it's own citizens. pic.twitter.com/DRPjssynVP — Tarek Fatah (@TarekFatah) December 30, 2017

They have even shouted “Death to the Revolutionary Guard!”

In a "first" for #IranProtests, demonstrators chant "Death to Revolutionary Guards!" in city of Rasht pic.twitter.com/cLyq9stz4H — Joshua Dov Caplan (@joshdcaplan) December 30, 2017

Meanwhile, this is an interesting look at the attitude reported from Iranian army troops.

7) Many officers and soldiers in the army and police forces are saying that they will not shoot at the people. This is a very terrifying point for Tehran. That is why the IRGC is deploying more troops to west, north-west, and north of the country. — Raman Ghavami (@Raman_Ghavami) December 31, 2017

The strange case of the mainstream media

One particular aspect of this situation is starkly astounding. The major media in the U.S. (and the larger West) have finally started covering it. They have no one on the ground in Iran reporting for them. But instead of conveying accurately the picture emerging from the sources we all have access to, they are silent about it, declining to acknowledge what the picture actually looks like.

It would be one thing if they relayed that picture and expressed reservations or skepticism. Some editorial commentators and analysts are doing that. Others, equally seasoned and credible, believe the picture is accurate. That’s all fair enough.

But astonishingly, major outlets CNN and the New York Times on Saturday went further, not only declining to report the information coming over social media, but actually using images and information themes from the Iranian regime – as the basis of their own coverage. In other words, they repeated the Iranian regime propaganda as if it were news they were certifying.

https://twitter.com/omriceren/status/947142542201622529

Thus, if you went by their reporting, you could easily think there were only a few “scattered” protests on Friday, followed by a pro-regime rally on Saturday, and little else. The pro-regime rally seems to have involved about 2,000 people – nowhere near the numbers turning out for three days in a row to mount anti-regime protests in dozens of Iranian cities.

https://twitter.com/omriceren/status/947154981379067904

There is no predicting where this will leave us in a week. But here is the timeline I promised you at the beginning.

The timeline

For months now, progress against ISIS inside Syria has seen Iran-backed militias edging closer to Israel’s northern border alongside Syrian regime troops. In early November, a tentative ceasefire framework was reached by Russia, Jordan, and the U.S. that would allow the Syrian regime – and hence Iran-backed forces – to occupy and control territory as close as 10 kilometers from Israeli-held territory in the Golan Heights.

Israel registered a firm objection to that. But in December, Syrian and Iran-backed troops were working their way toward the fateful line.

On Wednesday, 6 December, Trump affirmed U.S. recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, and announced that he would move the U.S. embassy there.

The weekend of 9-10 December, however, a border tour in southern Lebanon by the commander of an Iran-backed militia did nothing to allay Israeli concerns about the advance of Iranian armed power.

The following week, a spate of news and think-tank reports highlighted Israel’s ongoing objections to the situation in Syria and Lebanon, and the warnings from Netanyahu that Jerusalem could not stand by for more dangerous developments.

A seminal but virtually unnoticed event occurred that week (the week of 11 December), when the U.S. made its last monthly payments to anti-Assad Sunni militias in the “Southern Front” area of Syria; i.e., Quneitra and Daraa provinces on the Syrian side of the Golan. The practical meaning of that is that the resistance to the Syrian regime and Iran-backed militia forces in that area dropped off considerably after mid-December. (The move by the U.S. was part of the ceasefire framework negotiated with Russia and Jordan in November. Basically, we agreed to stop funding the fight against Assad and Iran in that part of Syria. The map below, from 2016, is for orientation; its depiction of force dispositions is more than a year outdated.)

By 24 December, the troops of Assad and the Iran-backed militias were assaulting the last (Sunni) rebel-held enclave in Quneitra from positions east and south of Beit Jinn, which lies about 7 miles from Israel in the Golan.

On 27 December, the Syrian regime and Iran-backed militia forces were reported to be “on the verge” of capturing Beit Jinn. Eliminating all resistance in the village would give them full, unimpeded control of the Quneitra border area with the Golan. Their armed forces would be without opposition, 7 miles from Israel.

On 28 December, the massive protests in Iran began.

The Iranian regime is now preoccupied with internal problems on a scale it has not seen since its installation in 1979.