'Scary' prediction for U.S. kids: 57% could be obese by age 35

Kim Painter | USA TODAY

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A whopping 57% of the nation’s children and teens will be obese by age 35 if current trends continue, according to a sobering new study out Wednesday.

The research, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, goes beyond previous studies suggesting unhealthy childhood weights often lead to adult obesity. It suggests that while heavy children face the highest risk, even those who make it to age 20 in good shape face substantial peril in a world where obesity could soon be the new normal.

“This study is the first to make precise predictions for today’s generation of children,” and the news is not good, said lead author Zachary Ward, a researcher at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. The findings, he said, show the need for stepped-up prevention efforts from infancy through young adulthood.

The current adult obesity rate, just updated by U.S. government researchers, stands at a record 39.8%. The rate in children and teens is 18.5%. Adult obesity is linked with health problems including diabetes, heart disease and cancer.

The new research relies on weight trend data from several studies that tracked individuals over varying periods of time. The researchers used that data to create a model that projects what will happen to today’s children if current trends persist.

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The study does not look at underlying causes. But it suggests that increased risks start accumulating early.

For example, a severely obese 5-year-old child faces an 89% risk of midlife obesity; a normal weight peer has a 53% risk. At age 19, a severely obese teen faces a 94% risk of being obese at 35; a normal-weight peer has a 30% risk.

Overall, about half of the people who will be obese at 35 already are obese at 20, Ward said.

The study is based on “a sophisticated statistical analysis technique that relies on certain assumptions, and those assumptions can be challenged,” said Stephen Daniels, chairman of pediatrics at the University of Colorado School of Medicine. “But I think the assumptions are pretty reasonable and their conclusions are pretty reasonable and, unfortunately, pretty scary.”

Daniels, who was not involved in the study, said the findings reflect “profound changes in physical activity and diet” that are hard to address. We live in a world, he said, where it’s easier for kids and parents to choose “high calorie, low-nutrient” foods and drinks than healthy ones. Meanwhile, he said, kids are often glued to screens that keep them immobile for many hours a day.

Potentially helpful policy changes, such as taxes on sugary drinks, need more research, he said. Beverage makers dispute any possible link between obesity rates and soda consumption.

“We have to figure out how to change our environments,” Daniels said. “We spend a lot of time talking to parents about changes we want them to make, but it’s an uphill climb for them.”