Remember draft day 3 weeks ago? Maybe you crushed it and picked up Spencer Hawes or Andre Drummond late? Or maybe you drafted Larry Sanders? Either way, you’re likely scanning the waiver wire with some regularity now.

If you read the 1-4-5 Manifesto last week, you know how highly I regard the concept of categorical marginal value when evaluating waiver wire prospects. Categorical marginal value is a way to conceptualize a player’s output, and therefore value, based on a 9 category system; which is useful for maximizing the yield from your waiver moves. Because waiver targets usually only contribute a few categories to overall production, players who can max out a few needed categories are often the best pick ups. (The exception here being significant changes in player minutes or roles, obviously.) Essentially, categorical marginal analysis is just an evaluation of how many categories a player will noticeably contribute each week. Logically this implores fantasy owners to look for players who produce in multiple, complimentary, categories.

Consequently, its important to set expectations and define your needs before adding assets; go in with an understanding of the relative worth of each category. Here are a few things to keep in mind:

Assists, Steals, and Blocks are the most valuable categories on draft day, as they are they hardest categories to improve later in the season.

are the most valuable categories on draft day, as they are they hardest categories to improve later in the season. Likewise, rebounds and 3’s, and points to a lesser extent, are the cheapest categories during the draft because quality output can found on the wire throughout the season (see: Caron Butler). Focus on rounding out your team with a few of these categories late.

to a lesser extent, are the cheapest categories during the draft because quality output can found on the wire throughout the season (see: Caron Butler). Focus on rounding out your team with a few of these categories late. Choose to focus on either FG% or FT% based on the makeup and nature of your roster. Going after both categories can work, but more often renders mediocrity in both.

based on the makeup and nature of your roster. Going after both categories can work, but more often renders mediocrity in both. Look for complimentary production in categories you’re average in.

Punt turnovers.

Now, preform a categorical marginal analysis of your waiver wire. Here’s an example from my personal league:

Points:

Gerald Green – 13.3pts, 23% owned

Caron Butler – 12.6pts, 21% owned

Andrea Bargnani – 12.4pts, 60% owned

Threes:

Steve Blake 2.6 3ptm, 32% owned

Gerald Green 2.4 3ptm, 23% owned

Caron Butler, 2.0 3ptm, 21% owned

Rebounds:

JJ Hickson 7.7rbds, 41% owned

Caron Butler 6.6rbds, 21% owned

Andrew Nicholson 6.6rbds, 20% owned

Assists:

Nate Wolters 6.2 asts, 7% owned

Steve Blake 5.0asts, 32% owned

Reggie Jackson 4.5 asts, 20% owned

Steals:

Tony Allen 2.3 stls, 43% owned

Gerald Wallace 2.0 stls, 47% owned

Metta World Peace 1.7stls, 32% owned

Blocks:

John Henson 1.4 blks, 20% owned

Robin Lopez 1.4blks, 54% owned

JJ Hickson 1.2 blks, 41% owned

Results:

As expected there are some nice scoring and rebounding options available, while passing and defensive categories appear pretty devoid of complimentary producers. This is why I recommend loading up on floor generals and fly swatters early during the draft. Break this down further and sort the categories by the availability of complimentary production. This reveals the relative marginal value of each scoring category and allows you to identify and gain from rare opportunities when they emerge. Using the previous example, here is the current relative value of each category in my league.

Steals – (0) Blocks and Assists – (1) Rebounds and Points -(2) Threes – (3)

These numbers confirm many of the predictions of the 1-4-5 roster strategy, exhibiting the elevated importance of defensive and passing statistics. Other useful observations include:

Hickson, Henson, and Bargnani are all sliding into starting roles due to injured teammates, legitimately inflating their value for the near future.

Hickson especially presents a tremendous value for someone in need of blocks ; due to the generally infrequent availability of players who compliment rejections with anything.

; due to the generally infrequent availability of players who compliment rejections with anything. Although Steve Blake compliments assists with threes, I probably wouldn’t want to own him. The Lakers simply aren’t a good investment at he moment.

with I probably wouldn’t want to own him. The Lakers simply aren’t a good investment at he moment. No one under steals is worth your time. The guys under assists are definitely stretches too.

is worth your time. The guys under assists are definitely stretches too. Predictably, some interesting and worthwhile players show up under points , 3’s, and boards. These are your quintessential waiver categories and prospects, expect a solid ROI from most guys found here.

, and These are your quintessential waiver categories and prospects, expect a solid ROI from most guys found here. Caron Butler suddenly seems wicked awesome.

Turnovers aren’t mentioned because I hate turnovers and deny the existence of anyone who doesn’t punt them.

Efficiency categories (FG% and FT%) aren’t mentioned because their worth varies from situation to situation. Obviously you don’t want to ignore these categories, but don’t get overly caught up in them either. Remember that efficiency numbers are determined by total ftm/fta, so just looking at player averages can be misleading. Consider Andre Drummond’s mind-blowing 14% free throw percentage, yes 14 fucking percent! Seemingly he’s a guy who’ll wreck your ft% on a weekly basis, however he’s only attempted 7 foul shots all season, 1 per game. Ultimately he won’t effect on your ft% in the long run.