[H]ere’s how daunting it is for Donald Trump right now in Nevada, with six days left in early/mail voting, which is usually 60 percent or so of all votes cast:

If you assume he and Hillary Clinton get 90 percent of their bases (and almost no poll shows Trump doing that well), and she loses indies by 20 points (and most here show her up with indies) she STILL wins the state by 2 points.

Let’s suppose Republicans end up coalescing and he gets 90 percent and she gets only 80 percent of Democrats ― a highly unlikely scenario, to put it mildly ― he would still need to win indies by at least 10 points to win the state.