So let’s get straight to the point then — Rafael Nadal will face Novak Djokovic in a couple of hours in the Roland Garros quarterfinals. My goal is to breakdown what can be described as typical strengths and weaknesses of the Nadal game against Djokovic [without looking at all the numbers a la Tennis Note 7 and Tennis Note 8]. As a Rafa fan, I want to share my perspective and my observations prior to what Nikita calls #quarterpocolypse.

Rafa’s Strengths

Rafael Nadal hits a tweener against Novak Djokovic in Madrid 2011.

1. The Mind — Rafa has a remarkable ability to be in the moment and play the present point as is. His overwhelming energy and intensity and pure belief on the clay gives him a psychological advantage over his opponents. He is also able to commit to his shots on the big points and trust his instincts. Even if he loses a point, he quickly recovers and resets his mind to focus on the task at hand.

2. “Serve + 1” tactic — If there is anyone that hits a high-quality first shot to follow up the serve, it’s Rafa. This is a quick way for him to get easy points on serve and also save a high percentage of break points.

Rafa serves and follows up with an immediate forehand winner. Watch till 21:48.

3. The Forehand

Heavy topspin balls flying surprisingly fast and are about to sail out of court, only to just clip the line. Sounds familiar?

Rafa’s ability to create both depth and angle with heavy spin as well as powerful shot mechanics is what essentially gives his opponents a total work out. The cross court (CC) forehand is key to set up the fundamental pattern of play — pull the opponent out wide and open up the court to do one of 2 options: (1) hit a forehand down the line (DTL) or (2)wrong-foot the opponent and hit another CC forehand and mentally demoralize the opponent.

Rafael Nadal’s forehand down the line allows him to grab control of the point.

More display of Rafael Nadal’s forehand down the line. Watch till 11:58.

With Novak, Rafa goes for the DTL shot a lot earlier to establish control of the point as Novak’s backhand can do a lot of damage. In fact, the major key difference is this control, which is heavily dependent on his ability to exploit the forehand to forehand exchange with Novak. Take a look at the US Open 2013 final highlights, in which the forehand down the line essentially allows Rafa to dictate play.

Hit deep first, then wide — Hitting deep and neutralizing the angle is essential to keeping Novak on the baseline. If Novak steps in, Rafa is pretty much in trouble. The key behind this tactic is to keep Novak on the baseline and confine his ability to maneuver ball movement horizontally. Novak relies a lot on angles and quick change of ball direction to move Rafa from side-to-side. However, the deeper the ball, the smaller the angles a player can generate on the follow-up shot. Novak is more likely to hit an unforced error or a short ball in a restricted attempt to move Rafa out of lateral court position.

4. Movement/Footwork — Lateral movement is a key part of Rafa’s game. His speed in this “degree of freedom” allows him to control his vertical positioning on the court. He is able to maintain a strong defense only to eventually step in and hit it an aggressive, deep shot with the forehand. In commentary, you will often here the phrase, “from defense to offense,” when it comes to Rafael Nadal.

5. Change-up Volley — Rafa is good at changing up the pattern of play with a forehand down the line followed by an approach to the net. Although used sparingly, this enables Rafa to shift momentum and awaken his aggressive instincts.

6. Slice — A deep, low slice is a preemptive weapon to combat the threat of being cornered into the backhand and spiraling out of lateral court position. The slice also reduces the velocity of the tennis ball as there is more aerodynamic drift in ball trajectory. This does two things: (1) gives Rafa additional time to get back into position and (2) requires Novak to generate more power and introduce an additional variable in shot judgment of depth/angle. Sparingly, Rafa uses the short slice to bring Novak up to the net (when least expected) and make use of the open court for yet another passing shot.

Rafa’s Weaknesses

Photo credit: Yann Caradec

1. Serve — The serve is of course, not so strong. As Nikita illustrated through the numerical trends, Rafa has been struggling to hold in recent times. This really is a combination of not being consistent on serve but also not moving quickly enough to neutralize good returns. In short, the quick-reflex defensive play off the return has been a bit more of a struggle. But not here at Roland Garros, right?

In addition, based on the numbers, Rafa also tends to serve more to backhand of right-handers, which is usually the weaker shot. However, with Djokovic, Rafa must serve a lot more to the forehand from both the AD and Deuce sides of the court. The weaker return also enables him to cash in on the “Serve + 1” tactic.

2. Backhand predictability — Rafa will more often than not go cross court with the backhand. This often plays to Novak’s strengths and an unbalanced Rafa has difficulties not only maintaining control on the backhand side but also cannot run around the ball to hit a forehand. Novak can comfortably anticipate the next ball and can step into the court to seize control of the point.

Rafael Nadal hits an unstoppable passing shot from the back of the court with his backhand.

Now, it would be a mistake to underestimate the devastating ability of the Rafa backhand. Being a natural right-hander, Rafa has an unusual ability to maneuver the ball from just about anywhere on Philippe Chatrier. Rafa’s incredible movement and ability to get low on the shot allows for solid body weight transfer.