The hurricane center noted that, while the forecast track of the storm had shifted somewhat to the south by Wednesday morning, “The threat to life from storm surge and rainfall will not diminish, and these impacts will cover a large area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves.”

So what does this have to do with climate change? Plenty. A warming planet doesn’t cause individual hurricanes, of course; they’ve been with us forever. But the effects of climate change have been linked to higher storm surges and rainier storms, and research suggests that powerful storms will grow even stronger in coming years as ocean waters grow warmer. There is even evidence that climate change causes hurricanes to linger longer, which Florence is expected to do.

Last year, according to one study, Hurricane Harvey got a 38 percent boost in its rainfall capacity from climate change.

For now, it’s most important if you’re in the path of this storm to get out of the way and to urge family and friends threatened by Florence to do the same. Mark Schleifstein, the science writer for NOLA.com and The Times-Picayune, laid out a warning in a stark tweet on Tuesday: “Live along areas of the N.C./S.C. coast ordered to evacuate and not going to do it? Keep an ax in your attic. And write your Social Security number on your arm, so officials can identify your body.” Brrr.

Now, here’s my colleague Lisa Friedman. From here on, she and I will be leading off the newsletter with the biggest climate stories of the week. We’ll continue to have original reporting and links to other coverage. And each newsletter will also offer a tip: one thing you can do to reduce your personal carbon footprint. So stay tuned for that, below.