What a difference a year can make.

For Newbee to go from the top of competitive Dota 2, winning The International 4 against all odds, to becoming the first team eliminated from TI5 and tied for last place is incredibly disappointing to say the least.

Of course, one look at the current incarnation of Newbee reveals a roster that is significantly weaker than the team that narrowly survived the group stage to win it all in 2014. Combined with complacent play throughout the tournament, you get a team that has a very strong claim to being the weakest at TI5.

Leading up to The International 5

Following last years victory at TI4, it took just over a week for Newbee to lose their most valuable asset: team captain xiao8. A master at drafting, xiao8 is arguably one of the primary reasons for Newbee’s success at TI4, not only for his drafting but for his wide selection of heroes that kept opponents on their toes.

His skills are now on full display with LGD Gaming, who are one of the most formidable teams at this years tournament. No matter who Newbee replaced him with, no one could compare to the formidable offlaner and the level of play he brought to the fold.

Also missing from this years lineup is Hao, perhaps the most aggressive carry currently playing Dota 2. That aggressiveness worked wonders with Newbee’s style of play, as he was often backed up on one of his numerous dives by his teammates. While that aggression can more often than not be a detriment to the teams he plays on, with Newbee Hao fit in perfectly. After his departure Newbee retained that aggressive playstyle, but Hao’s replacement, Rabbit, is nowhere near as explosive, leading to an increase in plays that ended in failure rather than nail-biting kills.

Beyond the loss of two of their most valuable players, Newbee failed to leave a mark on Dota 2 following TI4 beyond some minor tournament wins in the fall of 2014. The teams 15th place finish at the the Dota 2 Asia Championships is arguably the low point for Newbee post TI4, as they lost game after game due to sloppy play. If it wasn’t for Newbee’s status as defending champions, it is highly likely that the team would not have been invited to TI5 after their marginal achievements prior to the invites.

Expectations were low heading into TI5, but there was always the chance, however small that may be, for the team to surprise the world once again.

At TI itself

Newbee found themselves placed in Group B, arguably the most competitive of the two groups this year. While Group A contained Team Secret and LGD Gaming, two titans who most predicted would stomp through to the winner’s bracket, Group B contained no juggernauts outside of Evil Geniuses. That’s not to say that the remaining teams in Group B were weak; each of the teams were strong, but in the months preceding TI5 were overshadowed by Secret, LGD and EG.

For Newbee, this was a blessing, as the competitiveness of Group B could have allowed for them to sneak by with a few ties. They did not have to play perfectly each and every game; they just needed to win a series or two in order to survive.

Unfortunately for Newbee, the other teams in the group weren’t willing to be complacent.

In their first match against Virtus.pro, Newbee seemingly forgot how to place wards, leading to numerous ganks in the early game that slowly snowballed VP to victory. Watching the game again, Newbee did not play particularly bad, but VP wasn’t playing particularly well either. The mistakes in ward placement could have been fixed as time went on, but Newbee instead soldiered on, leading to June’s Tusk dying repeatedly for little gain and rendering him ineffective by the 25 minute mark.

Despite this loss, Newbee managed to win the second game of the series on the back of Mu’s Ember Spirit and SanSheng’s Earthshaker, who went 11/2/12 and 3/0/17 respectively. A perfectly reasonable win by most standards, with some great coordination between SanSheng and Mu allowing the team to recover from the mistakes they made in the first game.

And while the series ended in a tie, it set the tone for the remainder of Newbee’s matches in the group stage. Simple mistakes would add up, ending in a a Newbee loss after one big teamfight, while Newbee’s victories came with some great combination plays between Mu and one other member of the team.

Looking back at all of the matches Newbee played during the group stages, none of them are particularly exciting to watch, with most being relatively normal games. No surprise picks, no huge plays that turned games around, and no signs of the Newbee that dominated the winner’s bracket of TI4 — just perfectly average play.

When you’re in competition for $6.6 million, average simply isn’t good enough,

Looking at the statistics for the group stage however, significant problems become apparent. Newbee had the worst gold earning average out of the entire tournament, earning 1,699 gold per minute in the group stages. They also earned the least XP/min, with an average of 1,754. Both of these stats are lower than MVP.Hot6ix, who placed below Newbee in Group B.

This complacency explains why Newbee ended up with a 0-6-1 record at the end of group stages, the most ties out of any team at TI5. The disappointing record is even more frustrating considering that one or two additional victories could have catapulted the team into the winner’s bracket by a narrow margin.

In their loser’s bracket match against MVP Phoenix, Newbee’s TI5 run ended as quietly as it started. Despite holding their ground for most of the game, the game was over the moment March got a three-man Charge of Darkness against Newbee, setting MVP up for an Aegis and a high ground push that Newbee couldn’t come back from.

The Future

Following TI5, it remains to be seen what will become of Newbee. There will almost certainly be a major reshuffle amongst the Chinese teams, so Newbee may survive with a new crop of players under their banner. However, there is a much smaller chance for the team to disband completely, though that chance is much smaller given the power that Newbee’s name still holds as TI champions, despite their recent losses.

Regardless, Newbee needs some form of change, whether that be in their roster, their style or play or even their outlook on Dota 2. Because as it stands, Newbee has no chance of surviving in Dota 2 if they stay on the course they’ve set for themselves.

Newbee is certainly not the first team to win TI and fall short the following year. However, one would be hard pressed to argue that any of the previous winners fell as far or as fast.

Preston Dozsa writes about Dota 2 for theScore eSports. You can follow him on Twitter.