Here’s the idea that’s freaking people out: “$100 million in Minnesota taxpayer child day care fraud is going to Islamic terrorists.”

It doesn’t look like all of that is true — but parts of it are.

There’s a lot of smoke — and a lot of fire — around this story, which KMSP-TV/Fox 9 broke this week and has sent lawmakers and bureaucrats at the state Capitol into action. And these actions and reactions have been all over the place, ranging from hunkering in echo chambers to demanding answers to pouncing on red political meat to, well, everything in between.

It’s hard to keep track — and easy to get the facts wrong. Let’s try to keep track.

STEP 1: WATCH THE FOX 9 REPORTS

The main one is titled “Millions of dollars in suitcases fly out of MSP, but why?”

A second report is important, too, since it backs up some of the assertions. Both reports were led by reporter Jeff Baillon.

Here’s what the reports say: There’s child care fraud going on. It might be $100 million. Some of it might be going to terrorists. There’s $100 million in cash in suitcases leaving MSP. Some of that money heads to the Middle East or East Africa, including Somalia. Some of that money probably gets skimmed by terrorists. The reports cite a combination of sources, ranging from those with names and firsthand knowledge to anonymous sources, whose credibility can’t be judged from outside.

Here’s what the reports do NOT say: “$100 million in Minnesota taxpayer child day care fraud is going to Islamic terrorists.” Although the report does suggest that’s possible, no source involved with the report actually said that.

But that doesn’t mean this isn’t important. So let’s get into it.

CHILD CARE FRAUD

This is real. There are 10 open investigations and a number of closed cases, including convictions. The state has closed 13 centers since it formed a fraud investigation unit in 2014, officials have said.

Patterns are similar: Someone opens up a child care center and accepts children of poor parents who qualify for state taxpayer day care subsidies. The center bills the state and gets the money.

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But here’s the catch: The day care center doesn’t really provide day care. Parents sign the kids in and sign them out, providing the center with needed paperwork to bill the state. The parents might get a kickback for this lie.

And yes, most, if not all, of the fraud cases that fit this mold are run by immigrants from East Africa, including Somalia and Kenya, officials said.

HOW MUCH FRAUD?

No one seems to know for sure, but it’s at least tens millions of dollars, based on previous investigations.

It’s almost certainly not as big as $100 million, according to Chuck Johnson, acting commissioner of the Minnesota Department of Human Services. He told Minnesota Public Radio that figure was not “credible” because it would account for half of the state’s child care assistance program. He reiterated that point to lawmakers Tuesday, saying that some of the dollar amounts that have been floating around in the halls of the Capitol are simply impossible.

“You can’t defraud us for more than you’ve billed us,” he said, urging caution about some of the elements, or inferences made from, the KMSP report.

However, a state whistle-blower on Tuesday told lawmakers he believes that fraud is rampant.

“I’ve had investigators tell me it’s closer to 80 percent fraud rate,” said Scott Stillman, a former state investigator. He was a key source for KMSP, drawing on his years of work at the state’s digital forensics lab. He examined the cellphones and computers of suspected fraudsters.

But the department’s own inspector general was skeptical of that point by Stillman.

“I don’t think it’s anywhere close,” Inspector General Carolyn Ham told state senators, who held a hearing on the issue Tuesday afternoon.

$100 MILLION?

The KMSP report says that the $100 million figure is how much money, in cash, was reported through federal security checkpoints at MSP, as is required by law, when someone carries a pile of cash out of the country. The report cites anonymous sources for that figure, as well as figures suggesting the flow of cash out of MSP in recent years has climbed sharply.

Immigrants who don’t, or can’t, electronically transfer that money to relatives in their home countries instead carry it there directly. This is generally legal. However, criminals might also do this — especially since investigators have generally cracked down on organized crime and terrorist operatives trying to electronically transfer funds.

TERRORISM?

It’s possible that some money that flies out of MSP is going directly to terrorists. However, the theory that KMSP’s sources state — and the one being given credence by many Minnesota officials and lawmakers, is this: If a terrorist group controls a region in a foreign land, they act like mobsters, shaking people down and skimming money off the top.

It’s unclear how much that is actually happening with taxpayer funds that were fraudulently obtained.

This is what Ham told a Senate panel Tuesday afternoon: “In none of our cases have we had specific evidence of terrorism.”

So … fraud? Yes.

How much? Not sure.

Terrorism? Don’t know.

LAWMAKERS RESPOND

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