Scott Walker's greatest weakness in his bid for a third term as Wisconsin governor might be his 2016 run for president. | Dominick Reuter/AFP/Getty Images Elections ‘Scott Walker fatigue’ haunts Republicans Signs that the Wisconsin governor is ripe to be taken down are everywhere.

GREEN BAY, Wis. — There’s every reason to believe this is the beginning of the end for Scott Walker.

His presidential bid crashed and burned. He’s running for a third term as governor in what figures to be a hostile midterm for the Republican Party. Polling shows that the independent voters who were so critical to Walker’s wins in the 2012 recall and 2014 reelection are breaking away from him.


After years of futility, Democrats here are convinced they finally have him cornered.

“He’s stuck with a bad environment. He’s stuck with a long incumbency, and he’s stuck with a short general election,” said Tom Russell, a Wisconsin-based consultant with the Democratic Governors Association.

The signs that Walker is ripe to be taken down are everywhere. His opponent, Schools Superintendent Tony Evers, has a slight lead in recent polls and there’s evidence that critical suburban voters are shifting leftward.

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Three former Walker aides have even turned on the governor, with two cutting ads for Evers. And Walker has quickly gone negative on Evers, including in a new, highly charged ad .

Just as important, Democrats are running a populist candidate they believe is made for the moment — Evers, who built momentum from decisively winning a crowded primary and went on to raise $1 million in his first week as the nominee.

A career educator, Evers presents a crisp contrast with Walker, who’s held elected office for more than two decades. Democrats have seized on a “Walker fatigue” message that blames him for a teacher shortage, deteriorating roads (“Scottholes” as one group calls them ) and rising health care costs.

The governor’s real soft spot in his bid for a third term, however, might be his 2016 run for president. His detractors hold it up as evidence that Walker is more concerned about his political ambition than the people of Wisconsin. TV ads are already panning Walker’s White House run, saying he can’t be trusted to stick around for a full four-year term.

It clearly hits a nerve with Walker.

Concluding a statewide fly around in Waukesha on the first day of the general election campaign last month, Walker began moving away from a press scrum, taking no further questions. But when asked whether the people of Wisconsin could trust he was committed to a full term as governor, given his 2016 presidential run, Walker stopped dead in his tracks.

“Tony Evers ran for superintendent for a four-year term and a year after, he’s running for governor. You ask him the same question?” Walker asked a reporter, pointing to the reporter’s voice recorder, then pressing: “That’s on the record, right? You’re going to ask him the same question?” (POLITICO later asked Evers’ campaign; the answer was “yes.”)

Walker then responded directly about his intentions.

“Of course, 100 percent. I’m running for governor, I’m going to be here for four years,” Walker said, noting he went on a statewide listening tour after he gave up his presidential ambitions. “I came back and did listening sessions in all 72 counties. It’s what influenced our budget, the changes we made in education … it all came out of us going right back to the roots.”

“A lot of people have said I could have easily gone off and done something else — could have joined the cabinet, could have gone to the private sector, but instead I’m committed to being governor,” Walker said.





For all the storm clouds surrounding Walker’s prospects, few in either party are willing to write him off. As he runs for a third term, his job approval ratings remain in a fairly narrow band , never dropping too low or soaring too high.

He’s also cash-flush, given the $8.6 million Walker and the state party reported in the bank in July. On top of that, the Republican Governors Association is expected to invest $5.7 million in preserving Walker’s governorship. Walker can boast of a healthy state economy and an unemployment rate that stands at 2.9 percent — he paints Evers as beholden to unions and says an Evers victory would mean higher taxes and would stall that humming economy.

Walker’s durability and resilience — he’s been running and winning tough elections since his early 20s — inspires confidence among Republicans. He’s the last man standing among a Wisconsin GOP triumvirate who ascended to national prominence in the Obama era only to see their fortunes sputter during the Trump presidency.

House Speaker Paul Ryan is not running for reelection; Reince Priebus, the former Republican National Committee chair, was ousted from his position as White House chief of staff after a chaotic six months.

“I don’t think anybody thinks that this is isn’t going to be the most competitive governor’s race in the country," said Brandon Scholz, a Republican strategist and former Wisconsin GOP party executive director.

Scholz said one of Walker’s greatest assets is the strength of a Republican statewide organization that he helped build. “You see how hard Walker’s working: he’s an 8-event-a-day kind of guy. He’s always been a workhorse, all the time. He’s ramped it up even more.”

Republicans contend the Walker political machine, which features a tested field strategy and foot soldiers already in place, will combat those outside forces. They point to the contested Aug. 14 GOP Senate primary, where Leah Vukmir was vastly outspent but still defeated Kevin Nicholson. Walker didn’t endorse in the race, but his son, Alex, served as Vukmir’s political director and the GOP party apparatus went all in for her.

“The fact that she won shows that the Walker organization is as powerful today as it was in 2016 when it was mobilized on behalf of Ted Cruz,” said Republican pollster Chris Wilson, who ran analytics for Nicholson’s campaign, referring to Cruz’s resounding victory over Trump in the Wisconsin presidential primary. “The only area I can speak to with any level of authority is we got our ass kicked by a ground game — a grassroots Walker organization — that will be just as energized in November.”

The import of Wisconsin’s governor’s race is not lost on either party. Toppling Walker, long a symbol of anti-union and conservative policies, would deliver an emotional windfall to the left and serve to shore up a pivotal swing state for Democrats in the runup to 2020.

For Republicans, beating back Democratic enthusiasm in a key Midwestern state Trump unexpectedly won by less than 25,000 votes in 2016, would hold just as much significance.

They expect Evers, first elected statewide as superintendent in 2009, will be at a spending disadvantage against Walker, who’s stockpiled a greater cash reserve than he did at this point in 2014.

But the cavalry is coming for Evers. The Democratic Governors Association has already committed at least $3.8 million, while other major groups expected to give resources to Evers’ campaign include former Attorney General Eric Holder’s redistricting committee, Obama’s Organizing for Action, Tom Steyer’s NextGen America and the Democratic National Committee.

“I don’t think this is about Democratic enthusiasm in Madison and Milwaukee, it’s about Democratic enthusiasm and a backlash to Trump and Walker everywhere in Wisconsin,” said Sachin Chheda, a Democratic strategist and former Milwaukee County party chair.

Chheda points to “a massive shift to the left” in what was once solid Walker territory — including special elections in Green Bay’s Brown County and in the Twin Cities suburbs in St. Croix County.

Democrats also cite three public polls in recent weeks — NBC/Marist , Marquette and Suffolk/Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel — show independent voters are breaking from Walker, a daunting signal given that the state is almost evenly split politically, making them an essential part of the governor’s path to victory.

“What all of those polls said is that independents are going for Evers over Walker by 10 points. Walker has generally won independents when he’s gotten to victory,” Chheda said.

While Walker is expected to again win the vote-rich, GOP suburban counties outside of Milwaukee — he dominates in the so-called “WOW” counties where turnout is high — Chheda said if Democrats can nibble at the margins, it would make it much more difficult for Walker to win statewide.

The Trump factor could play a role in those suburbs. Even Republicans admit Trump’s unfiltered rants on social media and a slew of scandals hitting his inner circle could prompt GOP voters to stay home in November, including those heartened by Trump’s policies on immigration and taxes.

“This guy just says and does things that make you recoil,” Scholz, the Republican consultant, said of Trump. “The balancing test there is: OK, you’ve had victories on issues that you’ve long wanted, but the guy doing them makes you want to throw up in your mouth. What do you do? Do you stay home and not vote? Or do you vote for the folks on the ticket, to make sure that what goes on for Republicans and conservatives, and what goes on in the state capitol is what you want?”

One stat with which both parties can agree is the direction rural voters are leaning, and that’s with Walker. Rural Wisconsin counties with populations of 10,000 people or less have long held steady for Walker, and neither side believes that’ll change in November.

“Scott Walker and Wisconsin Republicans have earned the support of hard-working families in rural parts of the state because they've stood up for them and delivered results,” Walker senior campaign advisor Brian Reisinger said. “Democrats lost touch with those voters a long time ago, and they're not likely to win them back.”