× Expand David Michael Miller

This is an important election. I know that’s not an original or startling thought. In just a little over a month, Wisconsin citizens will cast their votes in a number of hugely important races up and down the ballot.

If polling data and special election results turn out to be accurate predictors, it could be a good night for Democrats. Tammy Baldwin is strongly favored to return to the U.S. Senate. Tony Evers continues to hold a small but relatively steady lead in the polls over Gov. Scott Walker. Evers’s lead is more impressive considering his campaign has spent the last month weathering millions of dollars of negative, dark-money attack ads. If it’s a particularly good night for Democrats, they could even unseat Congressman Glenn Grothman, and win control of the state Senate.

However, as exciting as these victories might be, the gerrymandered maps passed by Republicans all but ensure that conservatives will remain in control of the Wisconsin Assembly. When Republicans took control of state government in 2010, they rewrote the legislative maps heavily in their favor. In doing so, they didn’t win the Assembly for two years, they won it for a decade.

Even if Democrats win the statewide vote by a significant margin, Republicans can easily hold on to a solid majority. It’s happened before.

In 2012, President Barack Obama cruised to reelection in Wisconsin and Baldwin handily beat back a challenge from former Gov. Tommy Thompson. That enthusiasm was matched at the local level as Democrats running for Assembly received 174,000 more votes than Republicans. However, thanks to the undemocratic district maps that had just been put into place, Republicans won 60 of 99 Assembly seats across the state. Democrats got 53 percent of the vote and only 40 percent of the seats.

It’s depressing stuff, whether you are a fan of Democrats or just democracy. These maps have given Republicans the security to pass an endless wave of garbage legislation without running the risk of electoral consequences and constituent accountability. Without fear of competitive elections, they have been able to do whatever they wanted. The massive giveaways to the wealthy and huge corporations, the horrific conditions in the youth prison, the destruction of public lands and water, the constant attacks on the populations most affected by poverty — it all goes back to those damn maps.

But there is a light at the end of a decade-long tunnel. New legislative maps will be drawn in 2021. The person who wins the governor’s race in November of this year will have the power to sign or veto those new maps. If Evers wins the governor’s race, he will have the power to single-handedly prevent the 2020s from being another lost decade for Wisconsin Democrats.

If Evers vetoes the maps, the federal courts will draw up new district maps. It is extremely unlikely that Republicans would hold the two-thirds majority in both legislative chambers needed to override the veto. This scenario is exactly what happened in 1991 and 2001 when neither party held a monopoly on the legislative and executive branches. As a result, our legislative elections were more competitive during those decades than they’ve been since 2012. While going to the courts is not as ideal as a nonpartisan redistricting commission, it’s far preferable to the single-party fever dream we’ve been living in.

Now, winning the governor’s race isn’t the only way to stop Republicans from another decade of running Wisconsin in democracy-lite mode. If Democrats did manage to win control of the state Senate, creating divided chambers, the maps go to the courts before the governor is even involved. Additionally, while I think it is a long shot, the lawsuit challenging the current maps has been kicked back to the lower federal courts where attorneys for Democratic voters still hope to see the maps overturned in time for the 2020 election.

While winning Senate races and courtroom cases are viable strategies, a victory for Evers is by far the easiest, clearest path to a win for Democrats. For any Wisconsin Democrat who has loathed the last eight years — i.e. all of us — it’s time to go all in for Evers. Even if the polls look good, the consequences are far too great to take this race for granted.

The winner of this gubernatorial election will shape legislative maps that will remain in effect until the day before my son turns 18. He’s currently 3.

This November, Democrats may not be able to elect a truly representative Assembly to serve next year. But they’ll be shaping the Assembly that enters the chamber in 2023. And 2025. And 2027. And 2029. And 2031.

As I said at the top, this is an important election.

Alan Talaga co-writes the Off the Square cartoon with Jon Lyons.