In the latest milestone of Orange County’s shifting political milieu, Republicans’ share of voter registration has fallen below 40 percent for the first time in the county’s history.

That’s 8 percentage points more than the Democrats’ share but marks an ongoing slide from Republicans’ 22-point dominance in 1990, the GOP’s zenith in the county, according to county elections statistics updated this week.

The growth in voters with no party preference – at 24 percent, up from 10 percent in 1990 – is a key part of the shift. While Democrats’ current 32 percent share of registration has stayed fairly constant since 1990, the GOP share has fallen from 55.6 percent.

One major factor is the county’s burgeoning ethnic diversity, with Latinos particularly more likely to align with Democrats. Another is that older, white voters – where GOP support is strongest – are dying off and being replaced by younger voters turned off by the party’s traditional stances on gay, immigration and climate change issues.

“This is a generation where kids are coming out (as gay) in K-12,” said Jodi Balma, a Fullerton College political scientist. “These are their friends, their cousins, their brothers. And they’ve seen the superstorms hit New York and New Jersey.

“As for immigration, the dreamers (undocumented immigrant students) are very visible on campus. They’re their friends, their classmates who are being threatened with deportation.”

GOP rhetoric on social issues is often loudest at the national level, while many Republicans in the county and state are focusing more narrowly on education, limited government and an improved business environment.

Orange County’s growing wave of GOP Asian candidates, in particular, are often more amenable to immigration reform and social programs than earlier generations of Republican candidates. And while the county GOP’s job is to register voters, raise money and get out the vote – rather than promote policy – the organization also reflects a shift in emphasis.

“In communities that we haven’t traditionally been strong in, we’re focusing on the issues we have in common,” said county GOP Chairman Fred Whitaker, specifying that the emphasis in Latino communities is on educational choice and making it easier for small businesses to succeed.

Whitaker said he’s “not all that concerned” by the latest numbers. He noted that another county GOP initiative is to win back former Republicans who have joined the growing ranks of independent voters. His focus is on the long term.

“It took more than 20 years to have this decline and it’s not going to be turned around overnight,” he said.

GOP dominates elections

But it’s not all bad news for county Republicans. While their dominance in voter registration is loosening, their stronghold of most elected positions continues largely unabated.

“While registration will probably continue to decline, that doesn’t mean they won’t continue to win elections,” said Raphael Sonenshein, a longtime Cal State Fullerton political scientist who now heads up Cal State Los Angeles’ Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs. “While Republican registration is declining, Democratic turnout is declining.”

Indeed, since Republican registration dipped below 50 percent in 1999, county Democrats have gained little ground in elected offices. For partisan districts wholly contained in the county, Democrats have one congressional seat and one Assembly seat – the same as 16 years ago. And they’ve lost the one state Senate seat they had at that time.

Last year, the GOP Asian wave included now-state Sen. Janet Nguyen and now-Assemblywoman Young Kim winning local seats that had been held by Democrats.

Democrats briefly held a seat on the county Board of Supervisors – technically a nonpartisan position – but Republicans have held all five positions since 2007. And Republicans continue to dominate on most city councils, school boards and water district boards, which can serve as springboards to higher office.

Henry Vandermeir, who took over in 2013 as chairman of the county Democratic Party, is intensely aware of this GOP dominance.

“These are all things I inherited and I’m still working on,” he said. “After decades of neglect, it’s going to take some time to rebuild that infrastructure of candidate recruitment and campaign assistance.”

One of the changes is that he’s established an ongoing voter registration program – instead of just focusing on election years. He said signing up new Democrats has gotten easier in recent months.

“It started when (Donald) Trump and those guys started with their rhetoric,” he said. “I’ve got to thank them for that.”

He’s also launched a candidate school to help neophytes get up to speed, and he’s directed party efforts to north and central parts of the county where Republicans are most vulnerable.

The results are increasingly apparent in voter registration, if not elected offices.

At the beginning of 2012, Democrats had a majority of registered voters in just four of the county’s 34 cities. They now have a majority in seven cities, including the addition of the county’s largest city – Anaheim. Democrats have a majority in the second-largest city, Santa Ana, and are 100 voters away from a majority in the third-largest city, Irvine, where Republicans had an 18-point advantage in 2000.

But Anaheim and Irvine are also symptomatic of Democrats’ struggle. In Anaheim, just one of the five council members is a Democrat. In Irvine, Democrats lost their council majority to Republicans in 2012.

Independents grow

The shifting voter registration is moving the county in the direction of statewide statistics, where Democrats are at 43 percent, Republicans are at 28 percent and those with no preference at 24 percent. Third-party voters make up the balance.

The difference between state and county trends is that while Democrats and Republicans alike are losing market share statewide to voters with no preference, Democrats are holding their ground in the county – thanks is large part to new Latino registrants.

But the phenomenon is not countywide. One reason Vandermeir is focusing on the central and north parts of the counties is that Republican dominance of south Orange County remains strong.

“The county has become two counties,” said political scientist Sonenshein, who declined to predict which party’s efforts will be prove most fruitful in the future.

“The jury’s out,” he said.

Contact the writer: mwisckol@ocregister.com; @MartinWisckol