The number of people living in Britain is projected to rise from 64.6 million in mid-2014 to 74.3 million in 2039

The UK population will rise by almost 10 million over the next 25 years, according to official estimates.



The number of people living in the country is projected to rise from 64.6 million in mid-2014 to 74.3 million in 2039. More than two-thirds of the increase will be the result of assumed net migration and the indirect impact of people arriving on the birth rate, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

The ONS said: “About 68% of the projected increase … is either directly attributable to future migration [51% of projected growth], or indirectly attributable to future migration through its effect on births and deaths [17% of projected growth].”

The population will rise by 4.4 million over the next decade and is projected to reach 70 million by mid-2027, it added. England’s population is projected to increase by 7.5% by mid-2024, Northern Ireland’s by 5.3%, and Scotland’s and Wales’ by 3.1%.

The average annual growth rate of 440,000 in the first decade means that the UK population as a whole will rise by more than the number of people currently living in Dorset each year.

The estimated growth outstrips the rest of Europe, with the UK’s population estimated to increase by 15% in the next 25 years compared with 3% across the EU as a whole.

Only Luxembourg, Belgium and Sweden are expected to see larger rises, although the projections for Europe were based on figures compiled before the recent migration crisis.

On current trends the UK will overtake France by 2030 and Germany by 2047, becoming Europe’s most populous country.

The ONS also predicts that Britain’s society would continue ageing, with more than one in 12 people aged 80 or over by 2039.

Guy Goodwin, the director of social analysis at the ONS, said: “The UK’s population is set to grow and age. Growth will be at a faster rate than we have seen previously, largely due to the direct impact of international migration and the indirect impact of immigration.

“Despite this, the population will also be older as those born shortly after world war two and during the 1960s baby boom reach the oldest and pensionable ages respectively. The number of people of age 80 or over will more than double over the next 25 years.”

Simon Ross, the chief executive of Population Matters, the UK’s leading charity on population and sustainability issues, claimed that natural resources could not sustain the number of people in Britain or on the planet indefinitely.

“It is imperative that we address the factors contributing to increased numbers. We are all affected adversely by the rapid population growth of recent decades, from pressures on housing and public services to the environment and climate change,” he said.

“It’s time we addressed the population problem, by improving sex education and family planning provision and by increasing public awareness of the strains population and consumption growth place on us. If we are to live sustainably and happily in the long-term, population growth is an issue that cannot be ignored.”

The ONS data is published every two years and is used to inform policies on pensions, migration and care, and the planning of housing and services.

Jonathan Portes, the principal research fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said the projections were unsurprising.

“It all depends on how the population is distributed and managed. Only a small percent of the UK has houses on it, less than 10% is built up in any sense at all. So there’s plenty of room,” he said.

Migration changes both the timing and the magnitude and adjustment the UK would have to make anyway as its population rises, he added.

“To my mind it’s never a question of population rising, it’s a question of how you manage pressures. A suitable response would be to build more housing and improve transport. All the things the government is trying to do.

“In the 1970s, inner London lost one in five of its population, due to economic decline and the complete loss of manufacturing. Inner cities were poor, crime-ridden and undesirable. Those were real economic and social problems. Now we have problems of people not being able to afford a house and congestion. Those are real problems too, but they’re problems of excess.”

Portes also said that net migration makes paying for an ageing population easier, because migrants are more likely to be of working age.

“Migration doesn’t mean that we don’t have to adjust. We still have to work out how to pay in the long term for health and pensions and the rest, but it definitely makes the adjustment easier. And certainly in the short and medium term it makes the government’s task of managing the public finances considerably easier too.”