Crossposted at The Progressive Electorate.com

REMEMBER - A 1% or 2% difference in voting for Democrats will be what gives us Speaker Boehner or Speaker Pelosi.

So, what would you say if I told you that most polls this cycle are excluding or marginalizing 49 percent of those aged 25-29, and 38 percent of those aged 18-24. I guess if you didn't count between half to a third of the voters in this age group which Obama in 2008 won by a 34% margin things would look much, much better for John McCain!

So what has caused this massive over-representation of older, more Conservative voters in most polls?

Simple. They are not from cell phone only households.

BIG pollsters avoid polling cell phone only households because it is more expensive to do so, but when pollsters avoid polling this portion of the electorate, which voted heavily in favor of Democrats and President Obama, what they get is a view of the electorate that looks much more conservative than it really is, which ends up looking like a great big victory for John McCain.

And those cell phone only households have exploded in size since 2006.

In four and half years, the percentage of Americans 18 and older who rely on cell phones only has skyrocketed from 9.6 percent to 22.9 percent heraldonline.com

Four years ago excluding or marginalizing cell phone only households from political polls would not have had as big of an impact on polling as it does today.

In excluding or marginalizing cell phone only household, many pollsters are excluding a group that is much more liberal, younger and diverse, and much more likely to support President Obama and vote Democratic.

By the numbers

Who are these cell phone-only people? According to the National Center for Health Statistics: The young: 49 percent of those aged 25-29, and 38 percent of those aged 18-24. The less educated: 25 percent of those with high school educations or less, the most wireless group. Students: 29 percent of people who go to school. Hispanics: 30 percent, the most wireless of any race or ethnicity, with African-Americans at 25 percent and non-Hispanic whites at 21 percent. The poor: 36 percent. Renters, 43 percent. heraldonline.com

I wonder what effects excluding or marginalizing these groups might have had on polling this cycle? Clearly, polls would be more favorable to Republicans, but, as usual, Reality's liberal bias is waiting, rearing it's head over Sarah Palin and pals as usual.

I'd add 2-3 points to every poll I see from here on out.

Is there an enthusiasm gap? Sure, if you only count between half and a third of an age group Obama carried 66%-32% over McCain in 2008.

Is the Republican party headed for a HUGE sweep tin a week from now? Sure, if you under represent 30% of the Latino voters who preferred President Obama over NOT President John McCain by a 67%-31% margin in 2008.

Is the Democratic party totally doomed? Sure, if you under represent 25% of the African American vote that preferred President Obama over NOT President John McCain by a95%-4% margin in 2008.

So, yeah, if you ignore or under represent ALL THOSE PEOPLE, the election in a week from now looks like a HUGE WIN FOR JOHN MCCAIN and friends.

Unfortunately, reality sure does have a well known liberal bias. Could it be that Republicans once again have been living in a sound proof echo chamber of their own making, thus rendering them oblivious to the reality around them and setting them up for a BIG disappointment in a week from now?

The answer truly depends on one thing: YOU!

Now, in case you skipped this at the top of the diary, I will again IMPLORE YOU, if you are pissed that Bush/Cheney and the GOP WRECKED this decade and plan to do the same things they did before, pick up your phone and click the link below . . .

Go to CallOutTheVote.com right now.

Register to phone bank for at least one hour this week, if not more. Do you want to be 100% certain you did your part in stopping John Boehner from becoming speaker of the house? Don't just hope for it, make it happen, and remember, "We are the ones we have been waiting for!"

And if you can, give a little while we still can to help some great Democratic candidates.

Peace

Peace and LOVE to ALL

You can follow me on Twitter @JesseLaGreca