UTSA picked to win 7 games in 2017 and perhaps much more

UTSA linebacker Josiah Tauaefa during the opening day of spring practice on Monday, March 6, 2017. MARVIN PFEIFFER/ mpfeiffer@express-news.net UTSA linebacker Josiah Tauaefa during the opening day of spring practice on Monday, March 6, 2017. MARVIN PFEIFFER/ mpfeiffer@express-news.net Photo: Marvin Pfeiffer, Staff / San Antonio Express-News Photo: Marvin Pfeiffer, Staff / San Antonio Express-News Image 1 of / 9 Caption Close UTSA picked to win 7 games in 2017 and perhaps much more 1 / 9 Back to Gallery

Diligent football fans find that speculation about next season is always more intriguing than following spring practice drills.

That's why UTSA fans should find Bill Connelly's always-interesting previews during the spring are especially salient this season.

Connelly posted his expectations for UTSA during the upcoming season earlier this morning. It might be the rosiest picture for the football program than in any previous season in the short history of the program.

The season preview is packed with statistical data, charts and a deep analysis of the upcoming schedule. Connelly has the Roadrunners picked to win seven games. But in terms of win probability for their games, Coach Frank Wilson's team is better than 50 percent for nine of them with less than 50 percent probability only in games against Houston (30 percent), at Baylor (14 percent) and the regular-season finale at Louisiana Tech (40 percent).

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Wilson is praised by Connelly for his transformation in his first season as a head coach after never serving as a coordinator before taking the UTSA job.

"When you hire someone mostly known for recruiting instead of coordinator success or college head coaching experience, you don't expect immediate success. P.J. Fleck went 1-11 in his first year at Western Michigan, after all, and in Orgeron's first head coaching gig at Ole Miss, he never turned things around. There's a learning process here, and there's a foundation to be laid. "To be sure, UTSA went only 6-7 with an S&P+ ranking of No. 103 in 2016. The Roadrunners weren't exactly dominant. But the improvement was undeniable: UTSA's S&P+ rating (presented as an adjusted points per game average) improved by 4.4 points on offense, by 1.9 points on defense, and by 1.2 points on special teams. "Most important: UTSA doubled its win total. The Roadrunners overcame a 1-3 start, then walloped bowl teams Southern Miss, North Texas, and Middle Tennessee by a combined 57 points. There were plenty of missteps — a damning home loss to UTEP, a 28-point destruction at the hands of Louisiana Tech — but this level of success wasn't expected. "And then Wilson followed up by signing the No. 3 class in Conference USA, behind only Lane Kiffin's FAU and Southern Miss. "That's pretty good proof of concept in Year 1. Now all Wilson has to do is top himself."

Wilson took a young two-deep roster and stunned observers with what he accomplished in his first season before his recruiting even kicked in. Building a football program isn't supposed to follow that model.

As Connelly points out, the ceiling is high for UTSA in 2017.

And there's a chance that the Roadrunners could be in line for a very special season if a similar improvement occurs in Wilson's second season as in year one.

Tgriffin@express-news.net

Twitter: @TimGriffinBig12