New research, April 23-29, 2018

Posted on 4 May 2018 by Ari Jokimäki

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts

1. Projected shift of Köppen–Geiger zones in the central Europe: A first insight into the implications for ecosystems and the society

"We examined a future change of Köppen–Geiger climate classification zones in central Europe in the 21st century using the high‐resolution (10 km) bias‐corrected simulations of two regional climate models following the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. Temperate oceanic climate (Cfb) will remain the dominant climate type in central Europe but it will extent into higher altitudes and replace boreal or colder climate types that will practically vanish by the end of the 21st century. There is a risk of large‐scale expansion of humid subtropical (Cfa) climate in lower altitudes where 20–50% of population lives nowadays. In the end of the century the majority of arable land and permanent crops areas will be in the Cfa zone. A growing occurrence of Cfa‐like or Mediterranean climate‐like (Csa) years will reach up to 50% at some locations where 1.4 million people live today. Almost all agriculturally important areas and two thirds of the current population will be exposed to the occurrence of Cfa‐ and Csa‐like years at least once in 10 years which may result into a lower production of rain‐fed crops as it was the case of of Cfa‐ and Csa‐like years of 2000, 2012 and 2015."

2. Ground thermal and geomechanical conditions in a permafrost-affected high-latitude rock avalanche site (Polvartinden, northern Norway) (open access)

"It is likely that permafrost in and near the failure zone is presently subject to degradation. This degradation, in combination with the extreme warm year antecedent to the rock failure, is seen to have played an important role in the detaching of the Signaldalen rock avalanche."

Mankind

3. When do Indians feel hot? Internet searches indicate seasonality suppresses adaptation to heat (open access)

"State-level heat thresholds ranged from 25.9 °C in Madhya Pradesh to 31.0 °C in Orissa. Local adaptation was found to occur at state level: the higher the average temperature in a state, the higher the heat threshold; and the higher the intra-annual temperature range (warmest minus coldest month) the lower the heat threshold."

4. Planning for climigration: a framework for effective action

5. Integrated urban water management applied to adaptation to climate change

6. CoastAdapt: an adaptation decision support framework for Australia’s coastal managers (open access)

7. Moving toward 1.5°C of warming: implications for climate adaptation strategies

8. Community vulnerability and resilience in disaster risk reduction: an example from Phojal Nalla, Himachal Pradesh, India

9. Responding to Sea Level Rise: Does Short‐Term Risk Reduction Inhibit Successful Long‐Term Adaptation?

10. Climate gentrification: from theory to empiricism in Miami-Dade County, Florida

11. Transformational adaptation of agricultural systems to climate change

12. The interdecadal worsening of weather conditions affecting aerosol pollution in the Beijing area in relation to climate warming (open access)

Biosphere

13. Warming drives higher rates of prey consumption and increases rates of intraguild predation

Study on dragonfly larvae: "Warming increased feeding rates by 42% on average across species but had no effect on activity rate. The magnitude of change in feeding rate was positively correlated with the maximum temperatures species experience across their ranges. Lastly, warming increased rates of IGP twofold, however, species’ behavioral responses alone were not predictive of their susceptibility to become IG prey of other larvae at warmer temperatures."

14. Spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability and its relationship with land surface phenology in central east Argentina

15. Carbonate system parameters of an algal-dominated reef along West Maui (open access)

16. The role of heartwood water storage for sem-arid trees under drought

17. Phytoplankton Increases Induced by Tropical Cyclones in the South China Sea During 1998–2015

18. Phenological sensitivity to climate change is higher in resident than in migrant bird populations among European cavity breeders

"We found that both tits and flycatchers advanced laying in response to spring warming, but resident tit populations advanced more strongly in relation to temperature increases than migratory flycatchers. These different temperature responses have already led to a divergence in laying dates between tits and flycatchers of on average 0.94 days per decade over the current study period. Interestingly, this divergence was stronger at lower latitudes where the interval between tit and flycatcher phenology is smaller and winter conditions can be considered more favorable for resident birds."

19. Use of genetic, climatic, and microbiological data to inform reintroduction of a regionally extinct butterfly

20. Quantifying Australia's dryland vegetation response to flooding and drought at sub-continental scale

21. Long-term impacts of drought on growth and forest dynamics in a temperate beech-oak-birch forest

22. Adaptive management and planning for the conservation of four threatened large Asian mammals in a changing climate

23. Effects of competition and herbivory over woody seedling growth in a temperate woodland trump the effects of elevated CO 2

"Our findings do not support the hypothesis that future increases in atmospheric [CO 2 ] will, by itself, promote woody plant recruitment in eucalypt-dominated temperate grassy woodlands."

Climate change mitigation

Climate change communication

24. Positive energies? An empirical study of community energy participation and attitudes to renewable energy

Emission savings

25. Carbon emission and abatement potential outlook in China's building sector through 2050

26. Universal access to clean cookstoves: Evaluation of a public program in Peru

27. Inventory of methane emissions from livestock in China from 1980 to 2013

28. The contribution of transport policies to the mitigation potential and cost of 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals (open access)

Energy production

29. Climate, economic, and environmental impacts of producing wood for bioenergy (open access)

"We find that increasing bioenergy production and pellet exports often increase net emissions of GHGs for decades or longer,..."

30. Does Russian unconventional oil have a future?

31. Carbon overhead: The impact of the expansion in low-carbon electricity in China 2015–2040

Climate Policy

32. Climate governance through partnerships: A study of 150 urban initiatives in China

33. Governing the global climate commons: The political economy of state and local action, after the U.S. flip-flop on the Paris Agreement

34. Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement



Climate change

35. Analyzing Regional Climate Change in Africa in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C Global Warming World

36. Climate Model Biases and Modification of the Climate Change Signal by Intensity-Dependent Bias Correction

37. Performance of pattern-scaled climate projections under high-end warming, part I: surface air temperature over land

38. Indices of Canada’s future climate for general and agricultural adaptation applications (open access)

Temperature, precipitation, wind

39. The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes, and consequences

"Attribution studies estimate that about a half (40–54%; p > .8) of the global warming from 1901 to 1950 was forced by a combination of increasing greenhouse gases and natural forcing, offset to some extent by aerosols. Natural variability also made a large contribution, particularly to regional anomalies like the Arctic warming in the 1920s and 1930s."

40. Growing Land‐Sea Temperature Contrast and the Intensification of Arctic Cyclones

"By comparing statistics for years with high land‐sea thermal contrast against years with low, we demonstrate that storms over the Arctic Ocean will likely become more frequent and more dynamically intense as the climate warms, increasing the risk to shipping and other human activities."

41. Season‐dependent warming characteristics observed at 12 stations in South Korea over the recent 100 years

42. Maximum and minimum temperatures in the United States: Time trends and persistence

"Our results reveal evidence of significant positive trends in both maximum and minimum temperatures, while the difference between them show a significant negative trend as a consequence of the higher increase in the minimum temperatures."

43. Stochastic modelling of the monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns in India 1981–2015

44. Polarized Response of East Asian Winter Temperature Extremes in the Era of Arctic Warming

45. An analysis of changes in temperature extremes in the Three River Headwaters region of the Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2016



46. Projected changes in seasonal temperature extremes across China from 2017 to 2100 based on statistical downscaling

47. Inter‐decadal change of leading pattern of spring rainfall over southern China during 1901–2010

48. How Accurately Can the Air Temperature Lapse Rate Over the Tibetan Plateau Be Estimated From MODIS LSTs?

49. Trend analysis of annual precipitation of Mauritius for the period 1981–2010

50. Global lake response to the recent warming hiatus (open access)

51. Basin-scale Prediction of Sea Surface Temperature with Artificial Neural Networks

Extreme events

52. Extreme heat waves under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming (open access)

53. Climate Change and Drought: a Perspective on Drought Indices

54. Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Silk Road Economic Belt regions by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi‐model ensembles

55. Declining hailstorm frequency in China during 1961–2015 and its potential influential factors

56. Study of extreme wet and dry periods in Cyprus using climatic indices

Forcings and feedbacks

57. A systematic wavelet-based exploratory analysis of climatic variables

"Shorter-term variations in global surface temperature are associated with internally generated natural climate variability and external climate forcings, while longer-term variations are strongly related to human-induced changes only. In this respect, a long-term component of the net radiative forcing of human activities longer than 30 years displays a statistically significant relationship with global warming and cooling periods identified in the climate change literature."

58. Balloon-borne tropospheric CO 2 observations over the equatorial eastern and western Pacific

59. Spatially Resolved Isotopic Source Signatures of Wetland Methane Emissions

"Concentrations of methane are increasing in the atmosphere. In order to understand the reasons behind such variations, carbon isotopes are used to help identify changes in emission sources and sinks. We present a new global map of the carbon isotope signature associated with wetland methane emissions, the largest global source of methane to the atmosphere. We show how this newly synthesized information can lead to more accurate understanding of the causes of variations in the amount and rate of increase of methane in the atmosphere."

60. Analysis of European ozone trends in the period 1995–2014 (open access)

61. Evaluating year-to-year anomalies in tropical wetland methane emissions using satellite CH 4 observations (open access)

62. Can reducing black carbon and methane below RCP2.6 levels keep global warming below 1.5 °C?

63. Tundra shrub effects on growing season energy and carbon dioxide exchange (open access)

64. Different Global Precipitation Responses to Solar, Volcanic, and Greenhouse Gas Forcings

"For a given global temperature change, the global precipitation change under volcanic forcing is larger than that under solar and GHG forcings. The reason is that the volcanic forcing induces the strongest solar irradiance change in the wet tropics. Among the three forcings we examined, the GHG forcing excites the strongest high‐latitude warming, especially the Arctic amplification of global warming. There is no Arctic amplification of temperature decrease under the volcanic forcing‐induced global cooling. The volcanic forcing weakens the Intertropical Convergence Zone and reduces precipitation. The results suggest that while volcanic eruptions can reduce precipitation, they do not mitigate the Arctic amplification of temperature increase under the GHG‐induced warming."

65. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument: overview of 14 years in space (open access)

66. Assessing Satellite‐Derived Radiative Forcing From Snow Impurities Through Inverse Hydrologic Modeling

67. Clouds over the Southern Ocean as Observed from The RV Investigator during CAPRICORN. Part 1: Cloud Occurrence and Phase Partitioning

Cryosphere

68. Accelerating glacier mass loss on Franz Josef Land, Russian Arctic

"Mass loss from FJL doubled between 2011 and 2015 compared to 1953–2011/2015, increasing from a rate of −2.18 ± 0.72 Gt yr−1 to −4.43 ± 0.78 Gt yr−1. This 2011−2015 rate indicates an acceleration in ice loss from that observed in 2003–2009 by multiple studies using ICESat and GRACE. Glacier thinning rates are spatially highly variable. We observe glacier thinning rates of up to 10 m per year, and in general we see a trend of increased thinning from the NE towards the SW. Glacier retreat is widespread and has led to the creation of at least one new island. Historically, ice wastage from FJL is thought to have been relatively small, but accelerating ice loss may be the new normal for this archipelago in a warming Arctic."

69. A Century of Stability of Avannarleq and Kujalleq Glaciers, West Greenland, Explained Using High‐Resolution Airborne Gravity and Other Data (open access)

70. Volcanic impacts on modern glaciers: A global synthesis

71. Unabated wastage of the Juneau and Stikine icefields (southeast Alaska) in the early 21st century (open access)

"We find strongly negative mass balances from 2000 to 2016 for both icefields, in agreement with airborne laser altimetry. Mass losses are thus continuing unabated."

72. Simulating ice thickness and velocity evolution of Upernavik Isstrøm 1849–2012 by forcing prescribed terminus positions in ISSM (open access)

73. Aspect controls the survival of ice cliffs on debris-covered glaciers

Atmospheric and oceanic circulation

74. How Robust Are the Surface Temperature Fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation on Monthly Time Scales?

75. Gulf Stream Transport and Mixing Processes via Coherent Structure Dynamics

76. Atlantic Multidecadal Variability as a modulator of precipitation variability in the Southwest US

77. Response of North Pacific and North Atlantic decadal variability to weak global warming (open access)

78. Multidecadal fluctuation of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation pattern and its implication

Carbon cycle

79. Temporal Coupling of Subsurface and Surface Soil CO 2 Fluxes: Insights From a Nonsteady State Model and Cross‐Wavelet Coherence Analysis

80. Nongrowing season methane emissions–a significant component of annual emissions across northern ecosystems

81. How does the terrestrial carbon exchange respond to inter-annual climatic variations? A quantification based on atmospheric CO 2 data (open access)

82. An Analytical Framework for the Steady State Impact of Carbonate Compensation on Atmospheric CO 2

Other papers

Palaeoclimatology

83. Spatio-temporal variability of Arctic summer temperatures over the past 2 millennia (open access)

"The spatial average shows a millennium-scale cooling trend which is reversed in the mid-19th century. While temperatures in the 10th century were probably as warm as in the 20th century, the spatial coherence of the recent warm episodes seems unprecedented."

84. Recent climate variations in Chile: constraints from borehole temperature profiles (open access)