At a rally Saturday evening in Wheeling, W.Va, the president declared:

A lot of what we’ve done, some people could say, all of what we’ve done, is at stake in November. Always fragile. We are just five weeks away from one of the most important congressional elections in our lifetimes. This is one of the big, big — in other words, that’s true, I’m not running but I’m really running.

And what about “this horrible, horrible radical group of Democrats?” They “are determined,” Trump continued,

to take back power by using any means necessary. You see the meanness, the nastiness, they don’t care who they hurt, who they have to run over in order to get power and control. That’s what they want is power and control, we’re not going to give it to them.

On Wednesday night, Trump, after mocking Blasey Ford at a rally in Mississippi on Tuesday, doubled down on the idea that the Kavanaugh nomination was a political winner:

Wow, such enthusiasm and energy for Judge Brett Kavanaugh. Look at the Energy, look at the Polls. Something very big is happening. He is a fine man and great intellect. The country is with him all the way!

There are some intriguing twists.

Frances Lee, a political scientist at the University of Maryland, argues that from a political rather than policymaking point of view,

2018 is more important than any election since 1994, when Republicans finally ended the seemingly permanent Democratic majority and ushered in a new era of two-party competition for control of Congress.

Lee notes that “Trump frames the 2018 elections to a truly remarkable extent,” not only as the bête noire of the Democratic Party but as the overwhelmingly dominant force within the Republican Party.

This phenomenon, she writes, became evident in the 2018 Republican primaries, which “featured contests between candidates competing among themselves as to who could be most loyal to the president, with Trump’s endorsement deciding the outcome in a number of cases.”

Lee points out that because of Trump’s centrality and his role in

redefining the Republican Party around questions of ethno-nationalism, if Republicans retain control of Congress, even by a narrow margin, it will be an enormous vindication for the president and will further cement his recasting of the Republican Party around issues of national identity.

Lee makes the case that

Whether Republicans win or lose in 2018, Trump is likely to gain a firmer grip on the Republican Party after 2018 than he currently has. Never-Trump Republicans have had to either renounce their former apostasy or retire from office. And to the extent that the party loses seats, those losses will heavily come from the party’s moderate wing, leaving behind a more pro-Trump Republican Party in Congress.

Lee is on target as far as Republicans in Congress go, but Trump’s status in the party at large, in the event Republicans lose control of the House, Senate or both, is less certain.

If the outcome of the 2018 election amounts to a rejection of Trump, it will open the door to those hungry to challenge him in the 2020 Republican primaries, including — but by no means limited to — John Kasich, the governor of Ohio.

David Robertson, a professor of political science at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, observed in an email that a Republican loss of the House “would reduce Republican control over taxes, spending, trade, and a host of potential policies of interest to the Republican coalition of business and religious conservatives,” and would also

diminish the president’s influence with some Republicans inside and outside of Congress, and stoke interest in a primary challenge in 2020. Finally, Republican donors will question the return on continued investment in President Trump and his re-election.

Like Lee, Leonie Huddy, a political scientist at SUNY-Stony Brook, sees a parallel between 1994 and 2018. She pointed out in an email that

Congressional acrimony directed at a president of the other party in 1994 will be even worse in 2019 if Democrats win the House. Trump is more unpopular among Democrats in 2018 than Clinton was among Republicans in 1994.

Huddy described a likely agenda for Democrats once in control of the House:

Step 1 is likely to be a subpoena for Trump’s tax returns. But there is a slew of other financial issues that could generate investigations and hearings, including whether proceeds from the Trump D.C. hotel violate the emoluments clause of the constitution, and more generally whether the Trump family is profiting in various ways from the presidency. Trump’s personal life is another likely topic of investigation. Trump has been accused of sexual misconduct by multiple women. These accusations are also likely to generate hearings and investigations.

David Bateman, a political scientist at Cornell, agreed with many of his colleagues that a “Republican victory will be interpreted as a validation of its more aggressively ethnonationalist wing,” and that “a defeat will be interpreted as a setback for them and for Trump.”

Still, Bateman, voiced caution.

I don’t see the midterm elections arresting the progress of an otherwise successful political program or overthrowing the ascendant faction of the Republican Party or even throwing the party into disarray — I expect they will quickly regroup, with a more coherent and right-wing caucus and without the burdens of making choices that come with being the majority party.

A Democratic victory, Bateman continued,

will impose some new constraints on Trump, but probably not enough to render him a spent force unwilling to run again (or unable to win) in 2020, let alone disarming his more dangerous tendencies over the next two years.

Many of the most vulnerable Republicans are part of the more moderate wing of the party, as are many of those retiring. As they depart, Bateman notes, the hard right becomes more powerful within the congressional wing:

White Christian nationalism has long been an important part of the coalition, and not only is it not going anywhere but the party’s losses will probably make it more rather than less well-represented in the party.

While Bateman argues that the Trump wing will be fortified within the Republican Party regardless of the outcome in November, Stephen Ansolabehere, a political scientist at Harvard, argues that the future of the party’s Trump wing hinges on the election.