Democratic polls and focus groups have consistently found that voters react with horror to a 2008 statement by Cuccinelli that the “homosexual agenda” brings about “nothing but self-destruction, not only physically but of their soul,” as well as to Cuccinelli’s opposition to public universities including gay-rights protections in their anti-discrimination policies.

One private Democratic poll taken last month showed that 81 percent of targeted young voters – aged 18 to 29 – called that information a “very strong reason to vote against” Cuccinelli. A March focus group of middle-class, Democratic-leaning women in Virginia Beach found Cuccinelli’s quote about the “homosexual agenda” similarly powerful.

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Public polling reinforces that picture: a Washington Post poll published earlier this month found 56 percent of Virginians now favor gay marriage, including a majority of political independents.

That’s a stark shift since 2006, when Virginia voters approved an amendment to the state constitution banning same-sex marriage with a 57-percent majority.

University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato said that “twenty years have made a world of difference” in Virginia politics, as far as which side of the cultural divide is safer for statewide candidates.

“The gay rights issue here is emblematic. In the Old Dominion, a party associated with gay rights would be headed for a tumble. Now, it’s exactly the opposite. A sizeable majority in Purple Virginia do not consider the anti-gay views of Cuccinelli and Jackson to be acceptable,” Sabato said. “It’s old versus new. If the Democrats had a nominee like Tim Kaine, this contest would be over.”

As Republicans are quick to point out, McAuliffe is not, in fact, a candidate like Kaine, a genial moderate with a long history of involvement in Virginia politics.

If Republicans are sensitive to Cuccinelli’s vulnerability on the cultural front – not only gay rights, but also abortion and gender-related issues – they are just as acutely aware of McAuliffe’s personal vulnerabilities, centered on his spotty record in business and background as a colorful Democratic Party boss.

So even Republicans who view debates over gay rights and gay marriage as losers for the GOP are confident their gubernatorial candidate has a clear path to victory. They are less sanguine about Jackson, who will face the voters apart from Cuccinelli in a separate election for the lieutenant governor job.

Cuccinelli adviser Chris LaCivita said he was unconcerned about Democrats’ ability to motivate their core voters with social issues. When McAuliffe and his allies focus on topics such as gay rights and abortion, he said, conservative voters hear that message, too, and react against it.

“The only way they can motivate their electorate is to demonize Republicans on God, guns and gays in reverse. That is a true definition of a double-edged sword,” LaCivita said. “If the Democrats want to make the election about gay marriage and we want to make the election about jobs and the economy, we’ll take that match-up any day of the week.”

Still, the reaction of the state’s most powerful Republicans to the Jackson nomination underscores just how cautiously the GOP establishment hopes to tread on gay-rights issues. Where Democrats might once have winced at a candidate’s statement unapologetically calling for gay marriage, Republicans have responded to the emergence of Jackson with reactions that range from cautious to downright critical.