If President Obama gives the order, a high-tech fleet of U.S. Navy and Air Force fighters will sweep across Libya. Then the Gadhafi regime would likely strike back, with the second-biggest Surface-to-Air Missile network in Africa – plus the remnants of the dictator's dilapidated fighter force. The ensuing battle would probably be brief but intense. In the end, the U.S. would be able to install a "no-fly zone" over the country, protecting Libyan rebels from strikes from above. But "it would be challenging," Gen. James Mattis, U.S. Central Command boss, warns of a possible air campaign over Libya.

"You would have to remove the air-defense capability, in order to establish the no-fly zone," Mattis adds. "So it — no illusions here, it would be a military operation. It wouldn’t simply be telling people not to fly airplanes."

"Libya possesses one of the most robust air-defense networks on the African continent, falling second only to Egypt in terms of coverage and operational systems," Sean O'Connor, an air-defense analyst, wrote in a May 2010 assessment. "Libyan strategic SAM assets are primarily arrayed along the coastline, ostensibly defending the bulk of the Libyan population and preventing foreign incursion into Libyan airspace."

With rebels holding several cities, it's unclear how many SAMs are still operational. Last May, O'Connor counted 31 long-range SAM sites and 17 radars belonging to the Libyan air force. The bulk of this "strategic" missile force comprises Soviet-designed SA-2, SA-3 and SA-5 systems dating from the 1970s and 1980s. In addition, the Libyan army possesses a large number of short-range SA-6, SA-8, SA-9, SA-13 and Crotale missiles.

For its part, the Libyan fighter force in theory numbers around 200 planes – mostly old Soviet and French designs. Defectors flew two Libyan Mirage F.1 fighters to Malta. Another Libyan fighter crew bailed out of their Su-22 jet rather than follow orders to bomb protesters. It's likely very few Libyan fighters remain operational. Those that do are mostly being used to attack rebels, and wouldn't pose much of a challenge to U.S. and allied planes.

By the same token, O'Connor doubted Libyan SAMs would survive long in a shooting war. "Advances in electronic warfare and [Electronic Counter-Measures] have made many of the older Soviet-era SAM systems obsolete in a modern air combat environment. Libya's ... systems are no exception."

This was true more than two decades ago.

In 1986, the U.S. Navy and Air Force bombed Libyan targets in retaliation for Gadhafi's support of international terrorists. Forty-five American planes expended nearly 400 bombs and missiles on Libyan targets. Just one U.S. plane was lost. "Lieutenant General Vladimir Yaroshenko, a former officer in the Soviet PVO SAM Troops, was assigned to analyze the poor performance of the Soviet supplied SAM systems in that operation," O'Connor recalls. "LTG Yaroshenko has reported his discovery that poor command and control, poor radar coverage, and a lack of appreciation for American anti-radar weapons and tactics precluded effective target engagement."

In the 25 years since, Libya has not upgraded its weaponry – but the U.S. has. The game-plan for a U.S.-led no-fly zone includes F-22 stealth fighters flying from Egypt and the Navy's latest "Block II" F/A-18F Super Hornet launching from the aircraft carrier USS Enterprise. The Raptors and Super Hornets are all equipped with the latest electronically-scanned radars and satellite-guided weapons. As back-up, *Enterprise *also carries older Hornets flown by Marine pilots highly trained in close-range dogfights.

Mattis' caution aside, the Libyan air-defense network "was not capable of repelling an attack over 20 years ago," O'Connor concluded, "and there is no reason to suspect that it will be capable of such action today."

Photo: Navy

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