“She used to be the apple of his eye and received great protection and privileges.” Edward Schatz professor of political science at the University of Toronto

No one saw it coming.

For more than two decades, Gulnara Karimova was the glamorous fashion designer, the jet-setting diplomat, the successful businesswoman, the flamboyant socialite who brought Sting to the country.

She was also seen as the heir apparent to her aging father, Islam Karimov, who has been the president of Uzbekistan since 1990, ruling with an iron fist and little opposition.

But her status in one of the world’s most secretive and oppressive states has taken a hit, prompting some observers to speculate that the battle for succession has begun.

What remains unclear is whether she is being reined in by her autocratic father or exposed by ambitious competing clans.

No one expected it to be so public.

In the past few weeks, accounts of holding companies associated with Karimova have been frozen, her radio and TV stations have fallen silent, her charities raided, her high-end stores shuttered, and her associates and bodyguards allegedly arrested.

Steve Swerdlow, a Central Asia researcher for Human Rights Watch, says what is happening in Uzbekistan is unprecedented.

It is tough to know what exactly is going on because the country doesn’t allow journalists or human rights observers, said Swerdlow. “But essentially, it appears the contest for power and the question of succession has made a debut.”

Uzbekistan was once part of the former Soviet Union. It is a dry, landlocked country in Central Asia with significant gold and uranium deposits, as well as natural gas reserves. But Uzbekistan has been in the headlines in recent years for cotton slavery.

The world’s fifth-largest exporter of cotton, earning $1 billion (U.S.) annually in exports, Uzbekistan forces its citizens, including children, to pick 3.35 million tonnes of cotton a year.

Now, along with cotton, Gulnara Karimova, 41, is also making news.

It all started to unravel in July, when Karimova was sacked as Uzbekistan’s ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, just as two corruption inquiries began.

Sweden is probing allegations of payments of millions of dollars by telecom giant TeliaSonera to an associate of Karimova.

Switzerland is investigating Karimova associates for money-laundering, which triggered raids on the first daughter’s European properties.

(Germany’s Der Speigel magazine estimated her fortune at $570 million in 2010.)

Karimova took to Twitter to accuse the security services, government officials and members of her own family of extensive corruption. She accused her mother, Tatyana Karimova, of sorcery. Her younger sister, Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva, told BBC Uzbek that she and Karimova hadn’t spoken in 12 years.

Last week, her Twitter account was deactivated.

Why Karimov has allowed his daughter to be publicly humiliated is pure speculation.

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Swerdlow, who was expelled from Uzbekistan in 2010 and now lives in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan, says she may have angered her father by getting into trouble “with money-laundering probes that may cost the regime money and prestige.”

Edward Schatz, a professor of political science at the University of Toronto, says it appears Karimov is trying to rein in his daughter.

“She used to be the apple of his eye and received great protection and privileges from the regime . . . but she has started to be viewed as a potential liability,” he said.

Schatz points out that Karimov is a dictator and he has to demonstrate that he has the will and the ability to move against anyone who might influence the succession process, including his own family.

Something similar happened in neighbouring Kazakhstan, where the regime moved against Rakhat Aliev, son-in-law of the president who was showing political ambition.

Karimov likely perceived similar political ambitions on his daughter’s part, said Schatz, adding her resounding unpopularity also likely played a role in her shocking fall from grace.

WikiLeaks cables have described Karimova as the “single most-hated person” in that country.

Another theory is that Karimov is in failing health and has been unable to keep ambitious ministers, and his family, at bay.

But rumours of his ill-health have circulated for years now.

NATO troops, too, are withdrawing from the region, thus shifting the balance of political forces in countries like Uzbekistan, said Schatz.

“Different factions within the Uzbekistani regime are angling for a piece of what comes next.”

What does this upheaval within the first family mean for Uzbeks?

Swerdlow says this “drama” should prompt western governments to deliver a message to ordinary Uzbeks that the next regime “will not enjoy close relations with the West if the human rights record is not bettered.”

Now, said Swerdlow, “is a good time to deliver that message.”

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