Tony Windsor is looking more likely than ever to run against Barnaby Joyce in the upcoming election as polling reveals the former independent could beat the new Nationals leader if he receives Labor and Greens preferences.



A Reachtel poll of 712 residents in the seat of New England conducted on 11 January found 32.2% would vote for Windsor as their first preference if he returned – compared with 39.5% for Joyce.



The poll, obtained by Guardian Australia, found 11.2% would vote for Labor and 4.6% would vote for the Greens with 6.2% nominating others including other independents with 5.1% undecided. The Palmer United Party attracted just 1.3%.



The polling results suggest if the majority of Labor and Greens preferences flowed towards Windsor, Joyce – who has been Nationals leader for less than three weeks – could lose New England.



When the “undecided” respondents were asked which way they were “leaning”, 30.6% were leaning towards the Nationals, 19% were leaning towards Labor and 16.3% were leaning towards Windsor.

Of the remainder, 29.1% of undecided respondents were leaning towards others including other independents, 2.8% were leaning towards the Greens and 2.1% were leaning towards the Palmer United party.



Joyce has held the seat since Windsor retired in 2013, citing health and family reasons. At the time, Windsor’s critics accused him of running from local anger over his decision to side with Julia Gillard’s minority government in 2010. Joyce gave up his Queensland senate spot to contest New England prior to Windsor announcing his retirement.



But it is looking increasingly likely that Windsor will run against Joyce, though the 65-year-old told Guardian Australia on Sunday night that “I am not over the line yet”.



If Windsor runs, it would set up a competition around local and national issues including climate change, drought sustainability, the National Broadband Network, renewables and land usage – particularly the $1.2bn Shenhua Watermark coal mine on the Liverpool Plains.

A group of local farmers and Indigenous groups have fiercely opposed the mine but it has received support from the NSW National party and some townspeople.

The mine received approval from the NSW Baird government and the federal government under its environmental powers. Last week, the Land and Environment court ruled in Shenhua’s favour in a case brought by the local Landcare group and the NSW Environmental Defenders Office regarding the loss of koala habitat.

A local Liverpool Plains farmer, Rosemary Nankivell, has organised a GetUp! community petition urging Windsor to run for the seat on the grounds that the Coalition was trying to devolve environment powers to the states.

“The Coalition have been doing their darnedest to skip over these safeguards, devolve approvals to the states, and make it easier for projects to be approved,” Nankivell says in her petition.

“Regardless of what he says about standing up for the Plains: Barnaby Joyce has been silent, allowing these measures to be scuttled.”

The mine was given conditional approval by environment minister Greg Hunt after a review by the Independent Expert Scientific Committee under the “water trigger” established by Windsor and the Gillard government. At that time, Joyce suggested the “world had gone mad” and said he had done everything in his power to stop the mine.

Joyce has consistently said Windsor is free to run but has criticised the GetUp! petition as an “indictment of Australia’s political freedom”.

“Everybody knows that GetUp! is a lobbyist group from the left and they are going to push for candidates from their political spectrum,” Joyce told a local newspaper.

“It is their right to support independents against the Coalition.”