Test cricket is a remarkably stable format. The balance between bat and ball has shifted a little back and forth, but has stayed broadly the same since before the war - unlike in one-day cricket.

Likewise, the fundamental fairness of the format has remained unchanged for 40 years. There are some good tosses to win, but in general the two teams start the match with the same chance of victory. In the period from 1980 to 2014, the team batting first won 32 per cent, and the team batting second won 36 per cent.

Recently, though, a trend has emerged that could represent a profound shift in the balance of the game. Since the start of 2014, the team batting first has won 111 (55 per cent) of the 201 Tests played, and lost only 56 (28 per cent). Some of this discrepancy could be natural variation, but it is unlikely that all of it is.

Since the advent of covered pitches, the rough equilibrium between batting and bowling has been maintained by two opposing factors. On the one hand, the team that bat first have slightly better batting conditions. Although the second innings is generally the best time to bat, the fourth is by far the worst, and so, if time were not an issue, you would expect the team batting first to win more than they lose.