A quarter of the season is already done. It feels like the season just started -- no way we're already 25% done! Okay, hissy fit over. We've had a few surprises, both good and bad, as well as teams being just what we expected.

What do we know about the NFL so far? We know that all the preseason analysis and conjecture is for naught. The Chiefs were ranked 22nd to start the season, Redskins 11th, Saints 12th and Titans 26th. I'm not going to do a big comparison of the season. That'll come around Week 8 or 9 when I look at the rankings for that week compared to the rankings from Week 1 just to see who the biggest surprises are and the biggest disappointments.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking AFC West 12.9875 AFC East 13.6000 NFC North 15.0375 AFC South 15.6250 NFC West 15.7750 NFC South 16.2250 AFC North 19.1500 NFC East 23.6000

The AFC West is now the highest-ranked division in the NFL, with the NFC East now the weakest. I bet nobody saw that coming. The difference between the NFC East (8th) and the AFC North (7th) is wider than the gap separating the AFC West (1st) and the NFC West (5th).

Stock Rising

Team Week 4 Average Week 5 Average Difference TEN 18.278 11.146 7.132 CLE 23.778 18.354 5.424 SDG 20.375 15.083 5.292 DET 16.250 11.188 5.062 KC 10.014 5.896 4.118

Stock Falling

Team Week 4 Average Week 5 Average Difference CIN 10.111 16.063 -5.952 NYJ 16.583 21.188 -4.605 CHI 7.944 12.292 -4.348 BAL 9.694 13.979 -4.285 DAL 12.722 16.792 -4.070

Remember how I like to view the "Objective vs. Subjective" table as kind of a "Most Overrated" and "Most Underrated" teams list? It doesn't always work out that way — it's not a steadfast rule by any means — but this week it does correlate. Cincinnati and Chicago were the two most "overranked" teams last week.

Subjective Average

Subjective Broncos 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1.083 0.250 Seahawks 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1.917 -0.250 Saints 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3.333 0.500 Patriots 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 3.667 0.583 Chiefs 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 5 5 6 5.417 2.833 Colts 6 9 6 9 6 6 6 10 7 6 6 10 7.250 4.167 Bears 9 7 10 7 10 8 9 8 5 7 9 8 8.083 -3.416 49ers 8 11 7 6 7 11 10 5 13 8 7 7 8.333 3.917 Lions 10 6 9 10 8 7 7 9 14 11 8 12 9.250 6.583 Dolphins 7 10 8 8 12 9 8 14 11 9 10 15 10.083 -2.083 Packers 12 13 16 11 11 13 12 7 12 10 11 5 11.083 0.167 Bengals 11 12 12 14 13 15 11 13 6 13 15 9 12.000 -5.333 Texans 15 8 15 13 14 16 16 11 10 12 12 14 13.000 -1.833 Ravens 14 15 14 12 16 10 15 12 9 14 16 13 13.333 -4.833 Titans 13 14 11 16 9 12 13 15 15 15 13 18 13.667 3.000 Chargers 17 16 17 17 15 17 17 17 17 17 14 16 16.417 2.666 Cowboys 18 17 13 15 17 21 18 16 18 18 17 11 16.583 -3.916 Falcons 16 18 18 18 19 22 19 18 16 16 18 17 17.917 -3.250 Browns 20 19 21 21 18 14 21 19 21 19 19 20 19.333 6.334 Bills 23 20 22 20 20 18 14 20 23 20 20 22 20.167 3.583 Panthers 21 23 23 19 25 20 20 21 20 21 21 19 21.083 -0.250 Cardinals 19 25 19 22 23 19 22 25 24 23 22 24 22.250 0.917 Jets 22 21 20 27 26 25 24 26 19 24 23 25 23.500 -3.333 Eagles 27 22 25 24 28 23 23 22 25 22 26 21 24.000 -3.583 Vikings 24 26 24 26 21 26 26 27 22 27 25 23 24.750 3.250 Rams 26 24 27 23 22 24 27 24 26 26 27 26 25.167 -4.000 Redskins 25 27 26 25 24 27 25 23 27 25 24 27 25.417 1.416 Steelers 29 29 29 28 29 30 29 29 29 30 28 29 29.000 -1.750 Raiders 28 31 28 31 27 28 30 30 30 28 29 30 29.167 -0.417 Giants 30 28 30 30 31 29 31 28 28 29 30 28 29.333 -1.916 Buccaneers 31 30 31 29 30 31 28 31 31 31 31 31 30.417 0.000 Jaguars 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 0.000

Observations:

SPORTING NEWS, YOU HAD ONE JOB! If it weren't for SN, the Broncos and Seahawks would be a unanimous 1-2.

A number of fans like to keep discounting the Patriots, saying they haven't looked good at all this year. Don't tell that to the rankers.

Two teams from the AFC West make up the top five.

We're back to parity in the top 12: Six teams from each the NFC and AFC.

Interesting how the Chargers, with their terrible defense, were able to hold the Cowboys scoreless for three quarters, and yet some rankers still have the Cowboys higher. Am I just an annoyed homer? Probably.

Mike Florio over at Pro Football Talk really wants to believe in the Browns, huh?

Same story at NFL.com with the Bills. It wasn't that long ago when pundits were sure the Bills were the fourth-worst team in the league.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective Jaguars 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.000 0.000 Seahawks 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 0.276 -0.195 Broncos 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0.276 -0.195 Saints 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 0.471 -0.427 Patriots 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 0.471 -0.693 Steelers 29 29 29 28 29 30 29 29 29 30 28 29 0.577 -1.343 Chiefs 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 5 5 6 0.862 -0.777 Chargers 17 16 17 17 15 17 17 17 17 17 14 16 0.954 0.092 Buccaneers 31 30 31 29 30 31 28 31 31 31 31 31 0.954 -0.233 Giants 30 28 30 30 31 29 31 28 28 29 30 28 1.106 -0.871 Raiders 28 31 28 31 27 28 30 30 30 28 29 30 1.280 -1.208 Redskins 25 27 26 25 24 27 25 23 27 25 24 27 1.320 -0.755 Bears 9 7 10 7 10 8 9 8 5 7 9 8 1.382 0.276 Falcons 16 18 18 18 19 22 19 18 16 16 18 17 1.605 0.426 Rams 26 24 27 23 22 24 27 24 26 26 27 26 1.625 0.053 Colts 6 9 6 9 6 6 6 10 7 6 6 10 1.639 -0.252 Panthers 21 23 23 19 25 20 20 21 20 21 21 19 1.706 -0.066 Vikings 24 26 24 26 21 26 26 27 22 27 25 23 1.876 0.243 Browns 20 19 21 21 18 14 21 19 21 19 19 20 1.886 0.091 Eagles 27 22 25 24 28 23 23 22 25 22 26 21 2.121 0.021 Cardinals 19 25 19 22 23 19 22 25 24 23 22 24 2.126 0.175 Ravens 14 15 14 12 16 10 15 12 9 14 16 13 2.134 -0.045 Lions 10 6 9 10 8 7 7 9 14 11 8 12 2.203 1.305 49ers 8 11 7 6 7 11 10 5 13 8 7 7 2.285 -0.135 Titans 13 14 11 16 9 12 13 15 15 15 13 18 2.285 1.435 Bills 23 20 22 20 20 18 14 20 23 20 20 22 2.339 0.650 Texans 15 8 15 13 14 16 16 11 10 12 12 14 2.381 0.518 Dolphins 7 10 8 8 12 9 8 14 11 9 10 15 2.397 0.237 Jets 22 21 20 27 26 25 24 26 19 24 23 25 2.432 -0.012 Bengals 11 12 12 14 13 15 11 13 6 13 15 9 2.450 1.271 Cowboys 18 17 13 15 17 21 18 16 18 18 17 11 2.499 0.704 Packers 12 13 16 11 11 13 12 7 12 10 11 5 2.722 -0.110

Observations:

Unanimous that the Jaguars are the worst. No argument here.

Pretty good consensus of the top five teams in the league right now.

Chargers are right in the middle of the rankings, and very consistently so.

Six of the eight most consistent, and six of the eight least consistent teams are in the AFC. So apparently 1/3 of the AFC is pretty obvious, and another 1/3 is an enigma.

Objective Average

Objective Seahawks 2 3 1 2 3 4 2 2 2.375 0.403 Broncos 1 1 4 1 11 1 1 1 2.625 -0.958 Saints 4 2 2 4 1 6 4 4 3.375 2.292 Colts 5 6 6 5 8 5 5 7 5.875 3.903 Patriots 7 15 3 3 6 7 6 3 6.250 -1.028 Chiefs 3 8 11 8 4 2 7 8 6.375 5.403 Titans 8 9 9 9 5 9 10 10 8.625 11.264 Dolphins 19 14 5 13 2 11 8 5 9.625 -2.625 Panthers 6 12 12 10 20 3 3 14 10.000 0.667 Texans 17 7 8 15 7 15 11 9 11.125 1.319 Lions 13 4 18 11 22 10 15 12 13.125 3.542 Chargers 12 10 17 16 9 17 12 17 13.750 7.917 Ravens 23 29 7 7 14 22 9 6 14.625 -3.736 Bills 10 20 10 22 17 13 13 16 15.125 2.986 Falcons 14 11 14 17 12 27 16 19 16.250 -3.361 Bears 11 28 20 12 23 8 19 11 16.500 -5.278 Packers 9 19 23 6 27 18 18 15 16.875 -0.986 Cowboys 16 21 21 14 13 16 14 21 17.000 -4.222 Browns 24 16 16 21 15 12 17 18 17.375 4.514 49ers 18 23 15 18 10 25 20 13 17.750 0.694 Jets 20 13 13 25 18 19 21 22 18.875 -5.875 Bengals 15 18 22 19 25 20 22 20 20.125 -6.569 Eagles 26 5 27 27 21 21 25 26 22.250 0.750 Cardinals 27 22 19 24 19 26 24 23 23.000 1.889 Buccaneers 22 26 24 26 26 14 23 27 23.500 -2.722 Vikings 21 24 25 20 28 24 27 24 24.125 2.208 Redskins 28 27 29 23 29 23 28 25 26.500 2.167 Giants 31 17 28 29 24 31 29 29 27.250 -3.917 Rams 30 32 26 31 16 29 31 30 28.125 -3.347 Steelers 25 25 30 28 32 30 30 31 28.875 -1.653 Raiders 29 30 31 30 30 28 26 28 29.000 -4.556 Jaguars 32 31 32 32 31 32 32 32 31.750 -1.083

Observations:

Now using DVOA for the Football Outsiders rank.

Seahawks surpass the Broncos this week for the "Objective" top spot.

Most of this is because BeatGraphs ranks the Broncos as 11th, even though Denver is undefeated.

Despite being undefeated, Denver's wins have come against weak teams. Football Outsiders lists the Broncos as having the third-easiest schedule so far. This could account for the low BeatGraphs ranking.

Team Efficiency really likes the Eagles.

Wow, four of nine sites have the Panthers listed 10th or better.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective Jaguars 32 31 32 32 31 32 32 32 0.433 -1.828 Seahawks 2 3 1 2 3 4 2 2 0.857 -1.582 Colts 5 6 6 5 8 5 5 7 1.053 -2.468 Saints 4 2 2 4 1 6 4 4 1.495 -0.665 Titans 8 9 9 9 5 9 10 10 1.495 -3.062 Raiders 29 30 31 30 30 28 26 28 1.500 -3.447 Redskins 28 27 29 23 29 23 28 25 2.345 -0.955 Steelers 25 25 30 28 32 30 30 31 2.472 -1.765 Vikings 21 24 25 20 28 24 27 24 2.522 -0.103 Cardinals 27 22 19 24 19 26 24 23 2.739 -0.739 Bengals 15 18 22 19 25 20 22 20 2.804 -3.947 Chiefs 3 8 11 8 4 2 7 8 2.870 -3.709 Chargers 12 10 17 16 9 17 12 17 3.152 0.992 Cowboys 16 21 21 14 13 16 14 21 3.240 -0.152 Broncos 1 1 4 1 11 1 1 1 3.314 2.647 Browns 24 16 16 21 15 12 17 18 3.462 -0.233 Patriots 7 15 3 3 6 7 6 3 3.700 -0.210 Texans 17 7 8 15 7 15 11 9 3.756 -1.054 Jets 20 13 13 25 18 19 21 22 3.919 -1.738 Buccaneers 22 26 24 26 26 14 23 27 3.937 -1.350 Bills 10 20 10 22 17 13 13 16 4.136 -0.659 Giants 31 17 28 29 24 31 29 29 4.380 -2.816 49ers 18 23 15 18 10 25 20 13 4.684 -1.392 Falcons 14 11 14 17 12 27 16 19 4.737 -0.081 Rams 30 32 26 31 16 29 31 30 4.885 0.836 Lions 13 4 18 11 22 10 15 12 5.061 -1.420 Dolphins 19 14 5 13 2 11 8 5 5.290 1.318 Panthers 6 12 12 10 20 3 3 14 5.454 -0.835 Packers 9 19 23 6 27 18 18 15 6.431 -1.133 Bears 11 28 20 12 23 8 19 11 6.577 -0.828 Eagles 26 5 27 27 21 21 25 26 6.906 -0.243 Ravens 23 29 7 7 14 22 9 6 8.321 0.218

Observations:

At least the Jaguars are consistent.

The Ravens are all over the board.

If you take out the Team Efficiency rating, Philadelphia is actually relatively consistent in the mid-20s.

Packers and Bears are a statistical mess.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Broncos 1.083 2.625 1.854 -0.354 Seahawks 1.917 2.375 2.146 0.076 Saints 3.333 3.375 3.354 1.396 Patriots 3.667 6.250 4.958 -0.222 Chiefs 5.417 6.375 5.896 4.118 Colts 7.250 5.875 6.563 4.034 Dolphins 10.083 9.625 9.854 -2.354 Titans 13.667 8.625 11.146 7.132 Lions 9.250 13.125 11.188 5.062 Texans 13.000 11.125 12.063 -0.257 Bears 8.083 16.500 12.292 -4.348 49ers 8.333 17.750 13.042 2.305 Ravens 13.333 14.625 13.979 -4.285 Packers 11.083 16.875 13.979 -0.410 Chargers 16.417 13.750 15.083 5.292 Panthers 21.083 10.000 15.542 0.208 Bengals 12.000 20.125 16.063 -5.952 Cowboys 16.583 17.000 16.792 -4.070 Falcons 17.917 16.250 17.083 -3.305 Bills 20.167 15.125 17.646 3.285 Browns 19.333 17.375 18.354 5.424 Jets 23.500 18.875 21.188 -4.605 Cardinals 22.250 23.000 22.625 1.403 Eagles 24.000 22.250 23.125 -1.417 Vikings 24.750 24.125 24.438 2.729 Redskins 25.417 26.500 25.958 1.792 Rams 25.167 28.125 26.646 -3.674 Buccaneers 30.417 23.500 26.958 -1.361 Giants 29.333 27.250 28.292 -2.917 Steelers 29.000 28.875 28.938 -1.702 Raiders 29.167 29.000 29.083 -2.486 Jaguars 32.000 31.750 31.875 -0.542

Observations:

The top six is pretty well defined.

Sharp delineation from Colts to Dolphins, then again from Browns to Jets.

It looks like there are only two powerhouse NFC teams so far this year.

Almost three spots separate the Raiders from the Jaguars.

Ravens and Packers have the same overall average.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Jaguars 32.000 31.750 0.300 -1.320 Seahawks 1.917 2.375 0.625 -1.101 Saints 3.333 3.375 1.014 -0.798 Raiders 29.167 29.000 1.375 -2.933 Colts 7.250 5.875 1.584 -1.247 Steelers 29.000 28.875 1.627 -1.504 Redskins 25.417 26.500 1.878 -0.942 Chiefs 5.417 6.375 1.990 -2.820 Vikings 24.750 24.125 2.179 -0.092 Broncos 1.083 2.625 2.238 1.651 Cardinals 22.250 23.000 2.418 -0.426 Chargers 16.417 13.750 2.496 0.481 Patriots 3.667 6.250 2.685 -0.064 Browns 19.333 17.375 2.801 -0.544 Cowboys 16.583 17.000 2.826 0.223 Giants 29.333 27.250 3.074 -2.265 Texans 13.000 11.125 3.144 -0.363 Titans 13.667 8.625 3.182 -0.261 Falcons 17.917 16.250 3.345 -0.048 Rams 25.167 28.125 3.637 0.226 Dolphins 10.083 9.625 3.833 0.723 Jets 23.500 18.875 3.851 -1.599 Bills 20.167 15.125 4.028 -0.362 Lions 9.250 13.125 4.094 -0.222 Buccaneers 30.417 23.500 4.269 -1.692 Eagles 24.000 22.250 4.745 -0.360 Bengals 12.000 20.125 4.753 -0.899 Packers 11.083 16.875 5.389 -0.474 Ravens 13.333 14.625 5.552 -0.127 49ers 8.333 17.750 5.761 0.417 Bears 8.083 16.500 5.954 0.061 Panthers 21.083 10.000 6.567 -0.071

Observations:

Consistency towards the extremes.

Funny how the Eagles and Ravens are at the bottom of this list when their Subjective and Objective rankings are so close to each other. Just shows the individual rankings aren't consistent.

Seven of the nine least consistent teams are NFC teams.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj 49ers 8.333 17.750 9.417 3.223 Bears 8.083 16.500 8.417 1.861 Bengals 12.000 20.125 8.125 1.236 Packers 11.083 16.875 5.792 1.153 Lions 9.250 13.125 3.875 3.042 Rams 25.167 28.125 2.958 -0.653 Patriots 3.667 6.250 2.583 1.611 Broncos 1.083 2.625 1.542 1.209 Ravens 13.333 14.625 1.292 -1.097 Redskins 25.417 26.500 1.083 -0.750 Chiefs 5.417 6.375 0.958 -2.570 Cardinals 22.250 23.000 0.750 -0.972 Seahawks 1.917 2.375 0.458 -0.653 Cowboys 16.583 17.000 0.417 0.306 Saints 3.333 3.375 0.042 -1.791 Steelers 29.000 28.875 -0.125 -0.097 Raiders 29.167 29.000 -0.167 4.139 Jaguars 32.000 31.750 -0.250 1.083 Dolphins 10.083 9.625 -0.458 0.542 Vikings 24.750 24.125 -0.625 1.042 Colts 7.250 5.875 -1.375 0.264 Falcons 17.917 16.250 -1.667 0.111 Eagles 24.000 22.250 -1.750 -4.333 Texans 13.000 11.125 -1.875 -3.153 Browns 19.333 17.375 -1.958 1.820 Giants 29.333 27.250 -2.083 2.000 Chargers 16.417 13.750 -2.667 -5.250 Jets 23.500 18.875 -4.625 2.542 Bills 20.167 15.125 -5.042 0.597 Titans 13.667 8.625 -5.042 -8.264 Buccaneers 30.417 23.500 -6.917 2.722 Panthers 21.083 10.000 -11.083 -0.916

Observations:

The 49ers looked good this week, but apparently it wasn't as good as pundits like to think. Their "overranking" actually grew.

The 49ers, Bears and Bengals are ridiculously "overranked" and their success should be taken with a grain of salt.

Just imagine if the Panthers could put things together. They'd be scary good.

Best Matchups for Week 5

Opponents (Ranking) Game Time Ranking Difference Bills (17.646) at Browns (18.354) Thu, Oct. 3, 2013, 8:25 p.m. ET 0.069 Texans (12.063) at 49ers (13.042) Sun, Oct. 6, 2013, 8:30 p.m. ET 0.979 Lions (11.188) at Packers (13.979) Sun, Oct. 6, 2013, 1 p.m. ET 2.791

Whoever would have thought the Browns and Bills would be headlining the "Best Matchups" list? Not this guy.

Worst Matchups for Week 5

Opponents (Ranking) Game Time Ranking Difference Broncos (1.854) at Cowboys (16.792) Sun, Oct. 6, 2013, 4:25 p.m. ET 14.938 Chargers (15.083) at Raiders (29.083) Sun, Oct. 6, 2013, 11:35 p.m. ET 14.000 Patriots (4.958) at Bengals (16.063) Sun, Oct. 6, 2013, 1 p.m. ET 11.105

I thought last week that Jacksonville would be on the "Worst Matchups" list every week, but I was wrong. I think many expected the Broncos/Cowboys and Patriots/Bengals games to be closer than the rankings indicate.

Sources

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