Everything you need to know about Sunday’s regional election being billed as a plebiscite on independence from Spain

This article is more than 5 years old

This article is more than 5 years old

This article is more than 5 years old

Catalonia heads to the polls on Sunday to elect the 135 members who will sit in the region’s 11th parliament. Billed as a plebiscite on independence, the vote will be the most important Catalan election since its parliament was first elected in 1980.

How did we get here?

Before the previous election (in 2012), the Catalan parliament adopted a resolution asserting “the right of the people of Catalonia to be able to freely and democratically determine their collective future through a referendum”.

In the elections that followed later that year, the mostly pro-referendum parties – Convergence and Union (CiU), Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), Initiative for Catalonia Greens-United and Alternative Left (ICV-EUiA) and the the Popular Unity Candidature (CUP) – won the most votes and seats.



However, the CiU party of Catalonia’s president, Artur Mas, lost 12 seats, and he had to rely on the support of the ERC to secure the numbers needed to form a government.

Despite their differences, and diverging factions within, the pro-referendum parties were able to muster enough votes in 2013 to pass a declaration that affirmed Catalonia’s right to self-determination, and set forth the beginning of a process to call an independence referendum.

But Spain’s constitutional court declared the declaration void and unconstitutional.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau, whose leftwing Barcelona en Comú is allied to the Catalonia Yes we Can (CSQEP) party. Photograph: Emilio Morenatti/AP

Since then, the size of demonstrations has got bigger and bigger – and support for a referendum has intensified.

The Spanish government, though, has remained firmly opposed to an independence vote, declaring attempts to hold one illegal. Technically speaking, Madrid is on the right side of the law because in order to hold a legally binding referendum the central government would need to transfer authority to the region (just like in Scotland’s referendum) – and it says it won’t.



The standoff led the Catalan government to call a snap election, the third in five years, and to label Sunday’s vote a plebiscite on independence.

How many Catalans support independence?

It’s complicated. In November 2014 Catalonia held an informal consultation, in which more than 80% of participants voted in favour of an independent Catalan state.

But even the organisers of that vote wouldn’t claim the 80% figure should lead to independence, nor does it mean that a majority wants independence.

About 2.3 million people cast a ballot in that participatory exercise, which, using census data, would roughly translate into a 36% turnout.

At the last election, more than 2 million people voted for the parties that supported the pro-referendum declaration. In votes prior to that, support for pro-independence parties was relatively steady on around 1.5 million.

On the specific question of full independence, polls show Catalonia is quite evenly divided.

And the same polling also reveals important nuances: the “against independence” camp is split down the middle between those content with the status quo and those who want more powers handed over to the region, for example through a federal arrangement.

What is evident is that, if a referendum were to be held, how the electorate is defined (who gets to vote) and the offer/s on the table would be crucial factors.

However you interpret these numbers, though, three trends are clear:

Catalans are split over the question of independence. There isn’t a clear majority either way.



A majority isn’t happy with the current constitutional setup and relationship with Madrid.



The numbers supporting pro-independence or pro-referendum positions have increased noticeably over the past five years.



Who are the parties standing in this election?

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Human towers, or castellers, in Tarragona. Photograph: David Ramos/Getty Images

Catalonia’s political landscape has changed substantially since the 2012 election.

This will be the first regional election in which the Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) and Democratic Union of Catalonia (UDC) run separately, following the dissolution of the Convergence and Union (CiU) in June 2015.

The UDC will run on its own, while CDC is running with the ERC, Democrats of Catalonia (DC) and Left Movement (MES) under the Together for Yes (JxSí) banner. Members of the pro-independence Catalan National Assembly (ANC), Òmnium and the Municipalities’ Association for Independence (AMI) also support Together for Yes (JxSí).

Outgoing president Mas is the platform’s candidate.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Artur Mas, Catalonia president and CiU leader. Photograph: Matthias Oesterle/Zuma Press/Corbis

Together for Yes says it will proclaim independence within 18 months, if there is a parliamentary majority to do so.

The other openly pro-independence party is CUP.

The leftwing ICV and EUiA parties are running in an alliance with anti-austerity Podemos and Equo, called Catalonia Yes we Can (CSQEP), a platform similar to Barcelona en Comú, which won elections in Barcelona earlier this year.

Although independence isn’t directly supported, the group is in favour of a consultation on the relationship between Spain and Catalonia and its leaders are sympathetic to Catalans’ right to decide on self-determination.

On the unionist benches, the position on independence is clear.

On the centre-right, there’s the Catalan branch of the People’s party (PP), the party of prime minister Mariano Rajoy; and on the centre-left, the regional affiliate of the socialist party PSOE (although it should be noted that several of its members have abstained in the past on votes about the right to a referendum).

Also on the centre-right are the liberal party Citizens (Cs), which over the past few months has gone from small regional party to polling above 10% nationally.

47% of the 1,281 candidates standing in Sunday’s election are women.

How does the election work?

The 135 members of the Catalan parliament are elected in four districts using proportional representation: Barcelona (85), Tarragona (18), Girona (17) and Lleida (15).

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Pro-independence marchers with their faces painted with the Catalan Estelada flag. Photograph: Francisco Seco/AP

A list must take at least 3% of the vote in each district in order to win seats.

68 seats are needed for a majority.

There are 5.5 million voters on the electoral role. And there will be 2,697 polling stations open on election day.

You can find more data about the election here.

What do the polls say?

If the election result matches the polling, the secessionist parties will have the majority they need to move forward with their plans to proclaim independence within 18 months.

But the independence debate is only one factor – albeit the most significant one – to follow in this election.

With a Spanish general election due later this year, other numbers of interest will be the support garnered by the anti-austerity vote and by the surging Cs, as well as the performance of Spain’s two main parties, the PP and PSOE.

How to follow election day

The Guardian will be covering the election in depth, with a live blog detailing the results as they come in on Sunday evening; all related coverage will be here. The paper’s Spain correspondent, Ashifa Kassam, tweets at @ashifa_k.

Polls open at 9am (8am BST) and close at 8pm (7pm BST).