Our initial analysis has been outright confirmed and at least two Russian Su-57s have been forward-deployed to Khmeimim Air Base in western Syria. Satellite imagery dated February 23rd, 2018 shows two of the aircraft parked on the base's tightly packed fixed-wing tactical aircraft ramp.

It appears that one of the aircraft wears the "shark" scheme, first seen of fifth T-50 prototype "Blue 055," while the other seems to wear a similar paint job, albeit with less contrast and a "pixelated" or "digitized" design first on T-50 "Blue 509."

Blue 055 suffered a bad engine fire during a ground run in 2014, resulting in severe damage to its airframe. The aircraft was returned to flying condition in 2016 by using parts from an unfinished T-50 prototype.

Another satellite image appears to show an Su-57 cocooned in modular barriers on the base's southern ramp area, possibly taken at a later time than the image above. We must note that the origin of this image has not been confirmed.

The barriers, which can be used to create temporary revetments, have began to appear at the base following a series of attacks, one of which was executed via a group of GPS guided drones, in early January.

Some sources have claimed two additional Su-57s arrived the day after the initial pair, with images showing a pair of the jets flanked by Su-35s approaching the base. From what we can tell, this is just another angle of the first pair arriving, but with limited information available, we cannot rule out the presence of four Su-57s instead of just the pair.

Russia usually sends batches of four high-end tactical jets to the Syrian theater at a time, and just two would make generating sorties very challenging, especially considering the aircraft is still quite immature. But there are roughly a dozen Su-57s (also known by its pre-operational T-50 designation) in existence, and many of them are early prototype models. So the idea that Russia would commit four to Syria at such an early time would be a bold move, but not really an unexpected one.

We have discussed the reasons why Russia would execute such a surprise deployment of their most technologically advanced combat aircraft, but beyond the marketing and tactical aspects of the operation, Moscow's choice to send the Su-57 to Syria shouldn't be surprising, as we have said it would be just a matter of time.

The country has a more flexible rubric for deploying an asset into an operational combat theater than the U.S., which could be seen by some as one luxury of having little opposition oversight, especially by the media, of major defense projects. It also is indicative of how Russia develops its weaponry, which allows for greater operational risk early on in the system's lifecycle.