The current ratings map

On Monday we began rating state executive row offices by addressing the Attorneys General. Today we will tackle Secretaries of State. The Secretary of State’s office is one of the most important, yet least talked about, offices that will be up for grabs in November is the Secretary of State across 26 different states. As has been demonstrated in the cases of Kris Kobach in Kansas and Jon Husted in Ohio, SoS is the office in most states that determines whether the state pushes for strengthening/protecting the right to vote or trying to crack down through voter ID laws and voter purges. And currently among elected secretary of states , Republicans hold a 24-11 edge. Among those 35 that are up this fall, the GOP holds a 17-9 edge. This presents Dems with an opportunity to make significant gains in these offices nationwide in November. So let’s see how the races breakdown:

Safe D: CA, IL, MA, NM, RI, VT

These are not considered competitive at this time, with Democrats expected to hold these seats with considerable ease. None of these officers were elected with less than 54% in 2014 and given how poor of a midterm that was for Democrats, all of these should net around 60+% of the vote.

Likely D: MN, WI

Minnesota: Steve Simon

Republicans have been dreadful in statewide offices in Minnesota, not having won a single statewide race in the state since 2006 despite it being a pretty swingy state (Trump almost won here!). Yet the drought is expected to continue a little longer, at least at the SoS level. Incumbent Democrat Steve Simon won by 1 point in a very close 2014 race, showing his strength even in a rough year for Dems nationally. He will face former State Senator John Howe in the general election and while Howe is not a terrible candidate, he will be running against the wind in 2018 and that wind should carry Simon to another term.

Wisconsin: Doug La Follette

The SoS of Wisconsin is like the Treasurer of the state, a largely irrelevant position with very little power, and thus this is one of the few races that doesn’t really matter who wins. Wisconsin’s SoS has been Doug La Follete since 1983, managing to survive both the 2010 and 2014 GOP waves, which is indicative of the fact that La Follete is so entrenched he will probably never be beaten. Facing a pair of not terribly notable Republicans, he’s expected to win again. Fun side fact: La Follette is not actually closely related to the famous Wisconsin Senator Robert “Fighting Bob” La Follette. This La Follette was born in Iowa and moved to Wisconsin, and it is described that his great-grandfather was an uncle of the legendary Senator.

Lean D: CT, MI

Connecticut: Denise Merrill

Merrill was first elected to this office in 2010 and then won a narrow re-election in 2014 by a 51-47 margin. She’s looking for a third term in the office and will be balancing two competing forces: the unpopularity of state Democrats in Connecticut and the strong national winds at the backs of Democrats. While the bad reputation that the Malloy government has gotten in CT will hurt Merrill, I still think she’s a favorite given the national environment that 2018 is shaping up to be in her race against former New Fairfield First Selectman Susan Chapman, so Lean D feels appropriate.

Michigan: Open (Johnson)

This is the first projected pickup for the Democrats and it comes in my home state of Michigan. Of the three executive row offices in Michigan (Gov, SoS, AG), this is the one I think will be the second easiest flip for the Dems. Michigan Democrats haven’t held the Secretary of State office since 1995, when longtime (1971-1995) SoS Richard Austin lost his re-election bid to Candice Miller. Since then, it’s been 2 terms of Miller, 2 terms of Terri Lynn Land (R), and now 2 terms of Ruth Johnson (R), who is term limited out. That GOP fatigue could hurt Republicans, but more importantly, Democrats just have a way better candidate. Team Blue is running Jocelyn Benson, who lost in 2010 to Johnson by 5 points, which was by far the best performance by a statewide Dem in that brutal pro-GOP year. That performance impressed a lot of people and Benson is back to finally win the office and she’s racked up a bunch of national endorsements, including from Joe Biden. Furthermore, Republicans really struggled to recruit here, with their candidate being accountant Mary Treder Lang. As of September 15, Benson had nearly $1 M cash-on-hand, while Treder Lang had just $50,000. Polls show Benson up 15 and 9 points, and so this is a projected D pickup.

Tossup: AZ, CO, GA, IA, NV, OH

Arizona: Open (Reagan)

In 2014, the Arizona SoS race proved to be a very close battle, with the Republican Michelle Reagan winning 52-48. This time around, Reagan was toppled in the primary by a wide margin after a contentious race that went full-on culture war after businessman Steve Gaynor, whose whole platform was basically stopping voting from occuring in Spanish, won the primary. Gaynor’s position as pretty far right is a cause for concern with a general election electorate that may see a Democrat elected to the state’s Senate seat. He’s facing State Senator Katie Hobbs and polls have shown it close, with neither candidate close to 50%, which lands this race in the tossup column.

Colorado: Wayne Williams

This is the executive row office in Colorado that probably has the least chance of a Democratic pickup, since it’s the one that has an incumbent, but I still classify it as a tossup. Incumbent Wayne Williams won his 2014 race by just a 47-45 margin and this time around he’s facing lawyer Jena Griswold, who seems fine. The cash-on-hand between the two at the last reporting period is about even, so there doesn’t seem to be an edge there. Thus, any incumbency advantage Williams may have is cancelled out by the national environment and Colorado’s light blue tint, landing this race in the tossup column.

Georgia: Open (Kemp)

Secretary of State Brian Kemp ran for his party’s nomination for Governor (and won), leaving this office open. Democrats have had little statewide success in Georgia in recent years, but this is probably the best chance to win something this year (you could argue the governor’s race is becoming very competitive too). The reason is because Democrats have former US Rep. John Barrow in the race, a strong candidate for this type office. Barrow represented a district that spanned from Athens to Savannah on the eastern part of the state for a number of years until Republican state legislatures kept re-drawing the district to make it more and more red until Barrow couldn’t hold onto it any longer, as he lost in 2014. The key to winning Georgia is running up the score in the African American areas in the southwestern part of the state, doing well in Atlanta and its suburbs, and then not getting crushed in the white rural parts. With Stacey Abrams at the top of the ticket, Barrow can hope to get very good numbers from African Americans in Georgia, and his personal appeal in the whiter places he once represented could be enough to put him over the top. His GOP opponent is State Rep. David Raffensperger, who doesn’t really jump out at you, but having an R next to his name in Georgia is very important. While Georgia has a strong R lean, the national environment and D candidate quality make this a tossup.

Iowa: Paul Pate

While 2014 was a pretty dreadful year all around for Iowa Democrats, one of the most closely contested races was for the Secretary of State office, with Republican Paul Pate winning by just a 49%-47% margin. In 2018, he will be looking to defend his office against businesswoman Deidre DeJear. DeJear has a powerful personal narrative that could be very useful for her in her quest to unseat the incumbent Pate. DeJear was born in Mississippi, where her father had been barred from voting in the pre-VRA south and she came to Iowa to attend Drake University. She is also looking to become the first black woman to ever be elected to statewide office in Iowa. She trails Pate in the cash-on-hand department pretty considerably, but she also spent quite a bit on the primary, so she has time to make it up (last reporting period was July so we don’t have recent data). I expect this to be a close race, and so for now, it starts as a tossup.

Nevada: Barbara Cegavske

Republicans have a stranglehold on Nevada’s executive row offices, but Democrats are trying to end that in 2018. One place to do that is with the SoS, as Incumbent Republican Barbara Cegavske won her term in 2014 by just four points, 50-46. Democrats have drafted State Rep. Nelson Araujo to be their candidate for this office and he certainly seems good enough to flip the seat from R → D. We actually have some polling on this race and it shows Araujo with an early lead, though it has way too many undecideds to really infer anything from it. In a swing state like Nevada in a year like 2018, Democrats would seemingly have the edge, though an incumbent helps Republicans out and lands the race in the tossup column.



Ohio: Open (Husted)

The GOP also dominates the executive row offices in Ohio, but all look to be very competitive and tight races in November. Secretary of State Jon Husted, of voter purge fame, is running for Lt. Gov. on Mike DeWine’s ticket, leaving this office open and making it a high priority for voting rights activists. Democrats are running State Rep. Kathleen Clyde, while the Republican candidate is State Senator Frank LaRose and this is already shaping up to be a very expensive fight. At the last reporting period, Clyde had $1.76 M on hand, while LaRose had $1.6 M in the warchest. While Ohio could be turning red, it’s still a swing state for now, and whatever red tint it has is cancelled out by the national environment, making this a very crucial tossup race.

Likely R: IN, KS, ND

Indiana: Connie Lawson

Incumbent Republican Connie Lawson won her 2014 race by a 57-40 margin. While that was 2014, a good GOP year, she still has a clear advantage entering November 2018. Indiana is a red state and her opponent seems solid, federal judicial clerk Jim Harper. I fully expect Lawson to win another term, perhaps easily, but this race was at least worth mentioning.

Kansas: Open (Kobach)

It is widely accepted that Incumbents are harder to beat as opposed to winning an open seat, yet this race is the one where Democrats probably wish there was an incumbent. Because that incumbent was Kris Kobach, controversial voter fraud aficionado. Instead, Kobach is running for Governor, leaving this seat open. While the GOP is about as popular in Kansas as the Democrats are in Connecticut after an equally disastrous governorship of Sam Brownback, Kansas is still a very red state and that’s important to keep in mind. Still, Democrats are making a very serious play for this office, running former Uber executive Brian McClendon, while Republicans have State Rep. Scott Schwab. A strong D candidate, a helpful national environment, and state level dynamics could put Dems over the top here, but I’m just starting this race off pretty conservatively until we see more data.

North Dakota: Al Jaeger

Weird things have happened in North Dakota’s SoS race. Longtime incumbent Al Jaeger did not get the party endorsement at the convention and so he planned to just ride off into retirement. Then it was revealed that the GOP candidate who had wrestled the nomination away from him was a peeping tom in college and he was forced to essentially drop out of the race. Jaeger jumped right back in, but as an independent with Republican support. Democrats have Josh Boschee in the race, who apparently is a pretty strong candidate, but this is still North Dakota. While weirdness with Jaeger as an independent could create an opening for Boschee, I’m skeptical and so Likely R feels appropriate here.

Safe R: AL, AR, ID, NE, SC, SD, WY

These races are going to be easy Republican holds They are all in blood red states and Democrats do not appear to be making serious plays for them.

Conclusion

As we said at the opening, Dems are not in a great spot nationally with elected Secretaries of State, but this map and national environment presents them with an opportunity to make significant gains. Additionally, some of these races have huge electoral implications, given the role of the SoS in administrating elections and election law. These races provide Democrats with a huge avenue to advance pro-voting reforms and fight back against Voter ID laws and other GOP tactics. Thus, the stakes couldn’t be higher and these are certainly races to keep your eye out for. As of right now, we have one GOP held seat in Lean D (MI), and 6 GOP-held seats in tossup with no Democratic seats in danger of flipping, so it’s reasonable to expect a Dem gain of anywhere from D+2 to D+7 on November 6.