WE’RE just a week into the season and already some pre-season predictions look shot.

There are so many factors to consider when trying to judge which teams will improve from year to year — list changes, player growth or decline, or even just a tougher draw.

But there’s something few people use to make their predictions, because it’s seemingly impossible to predict — luck.

Luck is the secret factor that has a major impact on team performance from year to year.

Round 18

Luck is implicit in our great game just based on the bizarre shape of the ball that can do whatever it wants and only sometimes what the player wants — as Stephen Milne knows well.

But luck takes many forms and as anyone who watched Round 1’s clash between the GWS Giants and Melbourne can attest, close games involve plenty of luck.

Analysis from Stats Insider reveals that team performance each season is heavily impacted by performance in close games — judged to be any match that finishes with a margin of 12 points or less.

This may seem like common sense by itself. But our research shows that teams often overperform in one season because of how well they did in close games and then go backwards the next season while losing a few more close games — or vice versa with teams that underperformed.

Stats Insider found that seven teams lost more games than they won in 2014 when the margin was 12 points or less. All seven of those teams were better in close games in 2015.

It went the other way too, with four of the six clubs that performed well in close games in 2014 losing more close games in 2015.

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But more importantly, teams that underperformed in 2014 in close games ended up winning more games overall the next season — and vice versa.

Five of the seven teams to have a negative record in close games in 2014 won more games overall for the 2015 season.

That includes Adelaide which went from 1-6 in close games in 2014 with an overall record of 11-11, to 2-1 in close games in 2015 and an overall record of 13-8.

GWS had a similar change, going from 2-4 in close games in 2014 with an overall record of 6-16, to going 2-1 in close games in 2015 with an overall record of 11-11.

Once again, the stat worked the other way too, with five of the six teams that had a positive record in close games in 2014 dropping down the ladder in 2015.

That includes Geelong, which went 7-0 in close games in 2014 with an overall record of 17-5, but then went 3-0 in close games in 2015 with an overall record of 11-1-9.

It also happened to Collingwood, which went 3-3 in close games in 2014 with an overall record of 11-11, but then went 1-6 in close games in 2015 with an overall record of 10-12.

Overall, from 2014 to 2015, 12 out of a possible 17 teams had a connection between their performance in close games and their performance overall — either winning more games in both areas or losing more games in both areas. (Richmond had no change in their record in close games and were not included.)

So what does this mean for 2016? Well, the strong connections shown in these numbers we can make some predictions as to which teams will fall because of how they overachieved in close games in 2015, or rise because of how they underachieved.

Cale Hooker’s late goal against the Hawks in 2015 gave the premiers one of their four losses by less than 12 points for that season. Source: News Corp Australia

TEAMS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE

Hawthorn lost one extra home & away game from 2014 to 2015 while being a massive seven games worse in matches with margins of 12 points or less (4-0 in 2014, 1-4 in 2015).

That sort of sudden change, from being one of the best sides in footy in close games to being one of the worst, is incredibly unlikely to be repeated this season meaning we can expect the Hawks to improve in close games in 2016.

We can expect similar things from Collingwood, who were the worst in the AFL in 2015 in close games (1-6) after being average the year before (3-3).

A jump back up in close games should come for the Magpies even if their performance in Round 1 showed they may not improve overall.

Port Adelaide and Carlton are slightly different cases, as they have both had two seasons of poor luck in close matches.

Both the Power (2-5 in 2014 close games, 3-5 in 2015) and Blues (2-6 in 2014, 1-3 in 2015) improved slightly last season but they were the only sides to have two straight years of below average close game performance.

Expect to see them both improve this year off the back of a few thrilling victories — the Blues certainly got close against the Tigers in Round 1.

Adelaide used a bounce-back season, improving greatly in close games, to reach the second week of the finals in 2015. Source: News Corp Australia

TEAMS EXPECTED TO DECLINE

Adelaide is the poster child for expected decline after being the prime example of the opposite case last season.

The Crows had the best improvement in footy in 2015 in close game performance, jumping up from a 1-6 record to 2-1.

While the latter record isn’t overly out of whack and that could mean the Crows just remain consistent, it’s certainly hard to see them getting a huge amount better again.

The Crows are of course already 0-1 in close games this season after their 10-point loss to North Melbourne in Round 1.

GWS made a giant leap forward in 2015, reaching parity at 11-11 after recording just six wins the year before.

It coincided with improvement in close games as they rose from a 2-4 record in 2014 to a more reasonable 2-1 record last season.

Once again, we wouldn’t expect to see more improvement from the Giants in close games this season — and like the Crows, they’re already 0-1 in such matches in 2016 thanks to their kicking and Jesse Hogan.

But the prime example of a team expected to decline based on losing a few close ones in 2016 will be Fremantle.

The Dockers went 16-6 in 2014 while winning three out of four close games and only got better last season, finishing the home and away season 17-5 with a 5-1 record in close matches — the best in the AFL.

Only the Dockers and North Melbourne had a positive record in close games in 2014 and then improved that record the next season.

So while the Kangaroos (3-1 in close games in 2015) could decline, it’s almost certain to be seen from the Dockers who have had luck on their side for two straight seasons.

And of course, we could add in Geelong, which has gone 10-0 in close games over the past two seasons (7-0 in 2014, 3-0 in 2015).

But we won’t be betting against Danger.