The Dynasty Guru recently released the 2019 Top 500 Fantasy Prospects, representing the culmination of nearly three months of prospect positional rankings (links below). These rankings consider three, separate fantasy tools for both hitters and pitchers. Importantly, a fourth “tool” analyzed is risk, which considers a multitude of factors, including, but not limited to, fielding, level, opportunity, industry reputation, age, and injury history. What would the rankings look like focused solely on upside? With that said, don your rose-colored glasses as we explore the Top 100 upside-only fantasy prospects!

“Upside” is a vague and, occasionally, elusive term. As such, conceptualizing upside can be difficult. For the purpose of these rankings, upside does not mean a 99th percentile outcome. In a perfect world, all prospects develop to absolute peak. For example, diminutive Jose Ramirez blasting 39 home runs is a 99th percentile (or even higher) outcome. These outcomes are highly improbable and often impossible to predict. Thus, these rankings assess upside using future value grades, which represent a reasonable approximation of a player’s ceiling.

To see where the prospects below now fall in the overall rankings, you can obtain access to the updated (January) Top 600 Dynasty League Players with a small donation. Note, however, some prospect rankings have changed since I updated the Top 600.

2019 Top 100 Upside-Only Fantasy Prospects

Rank Player POS. SEC. POS. Age 2018 Level ETA 1 Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. TOR 3B - 20.03 GCL, A+, AA, AAA 2019 2 Wander Franco TB SS - 18.08 APP 2021 3 Eloy Jimenez CHW OF - 22.34 AA, AAA 2019 4 Fernando Tatis Jr. SD SS - 20.24 AA 2019 5 Victor Robles WAS OF - 21.86 GCL, NYP, AAA, MLB - 6 Hunter Greene CIN RHP - 19.64 A 2022 7 Jo Adell LAA OF - 19.97 A, A+, AA 2020 8 Forrest Whitley HOU RHP - 21.54 AA 2019 9 Kyle Tucker HOU OF - 22.20 AAA, MLB - 10 Taylor Trammell CIN OF - 21.54 A+ 2020 11 Royce Lewis MIN SS - 19.81 A, A+ 2020 12 MacKenzie Gore SD LHP - 20.09 A 2021 13 Sixto Sanchez MIA RHP - 20.66 A+ 2020 14 Alex Kirilloff MIN OF - 21.39 A, A+ 2020 15 Brendan McKay TB LHP 1B 23.28 GCL, A, A+ 2020 16 Casey Mize DET RHP - 21.91 GCL, A+ 2020 17 Peter Alonso NYM 1B - 24.31 AA, AAA 2019 18 Alex Reyes STL RHP - 24.58 A, A+, AA, AAA, MLB - 19 Michael Kopech CHW RHP - 22.91 AAA, MLB - 20 Luis Robert CHW OF - 21.65 AZL, A, A+ 2020 21 A.J. Puk OAK LHP - 23.93 N/A 2019 22 Nolan Gorman STL 3B - 18.88 APP, A 2021 23 Nate Pearson TOR RHP - 22.61 A+ 2020 24 Kristian Robinson ARI OF - 18.30 AZL, PIO 2022 25 Jordyn Adams LAA OF - 19.44 AZL, PIO 2022 26 Jesus Luzardo OAK LHP - 21.49 A+, AA, AAA 2019 27 Dylan Cease CHW RHP - 23.25 A+, AA 2019 28 Bo Bichette TOR SS 2B 21.06 AA 2019 29 Nick Senzel CIN 2B 3B 23.75 AAA 2019 30 Keston Hiura MIL 2B - 22.66 A+, AA 2019 31 Brendan Rodgers COL SS 2B/3B 22.64 AA/AAA 2019 32 Yordan Alvarez HOU OF 1B 21.75 AA, AAA 2019 33 Carter Kieboom WAS SS - 21.57 A+, AA 2020 34 Brent Honeywell TB RHP - 23.99 N/A 2019 35 Drew Waters ATL OF - 20.24 A, A+ 2021 36 Jarred Kelenic SEA OF - 19.70 GCL, APP 2022 37 Brusdar Graterol MIN RHP - 20.59 A, A+ 2020 38 Luis Patino SD RHP - 19.42 A 2021 39 Nathaniel Lowe TB 1B - 23.73 A+, AA, AAA 2019 40 Ian Anderson ATL RHP - 20.91 A+, AA 2020 41 Xavier Edwards SD SS 2B 19.64 AZL, NWL 2022 42 Chris Paddack SD RHP - 23.22 A+, AA 2019 43 Anderson Espinoza SD RHP - 21.05 N/A 2021 44 Antonio Cabello NYY OF - 18.41 DSL, GCL 2023 45 Matthew Liberatore TB LHP - 19.39 GCL, APP 2022 46 Cole Winn TEX RHP - 19.34 N/A 2022 47 George Valera CLE OF - 18.38 AZL 2023 48 Marco Luciano SF SS - 17.55 N/A 2023 49 Malcom Nunez STL 3B 1B 18.05 DSL 2023 50 Nick Madrigal CHW 2B - 22.04 AZL, A, A+ 2020 51 Josh James HOU RHP - 26.06 AA, AAA, MLB - 52 Seuly Matias KC OF - 20.57 A 2021 53 Austin Riley ATL 3B - 21.99 GCL, AA, AAA 2019 54 Estevan Florial NYY OF - 21.34 GCL, A+ 2020 55 Jazz Chisholm ARI SS - 21.16 A, A+ 2020 56 Heliot Ramos SF OF - 19.56 A 2021 57 Mike Soroka ATL RHP - 21.65 AAA, MLB - 58 Mitch Keller PIT RHP - 22.98 A+, AA, AAA 2019 59 Jesus Sanchez TB OF - 21.475 A+, AA 2019 60 Matt Manning DET RHP - 21.17 A, A+, AA 2020 61 Bubba Thompson TEX OF - 20.80 A 2021 62 Trevor Larnach MIN OF - 22.09 APP, A 2020 63 Travis Swaggerty PIT OF - 21.61 NYP, A 2020 64 Julio Pablo Martinez TEX OF - 23.02 DSL, NWL 2020 65 Jonathan Loaisiga NYY RHP - 24.41 A+, AA, MLB - 66 Oneil Cruz PIT SS - 20.48 A 2021 67 DL Hall BAL LHP - 20.53 A 2021 68 Andres Gimenez NYM SS - 20.57 A+, AA 2020 69 Shane Baz TB RHP - 19.78 APP 2022 70 Esteury Ruiz SD 2B 3B 20.12 A 2021 71 Jonathan India CIN 3B SS 22.29 APP, PIO, A 2020 72 Yusniel Diaz BAL OF - 22.48 AA 2019 73 Joey Bart SF C - 22.29 AZL, NWL 2021 74 Victor Victor Mesa MIA OF - 22.69 N/A 2020 75 Garrett Hampson COL 2B SS/OF 24.47 AA, AAA, MLB - 76 Jon Duplantier ARI RHP - 24.71 AZL, AA 2019 77 Michel Baez SD RHP - 23.19 A+, AA 2019 78 Corbin Martin HOU RHP - 23.25 A+, AA 2019 79 Vidal Brujan TB 2B - 21.14 A, A+ 2020 80 Alec Bohm PHI 3B - 22.65 GCL, NYP 2020 81 Triston McKenzie CLE RHP - 21.66 AA 2019 82 Luis Garcia WAS SS 3B/2B 18.87 A, A+ 2021 83 Justin Dunn SEA RHP - 23.52 A+, AA 2019 84 Gavin Lux LAD SS 2B 21.35 A+, AA 2020 85 Adrian Morejon SD LHP - 20.09 AZL, A+ 2020 86 Jahmai Jones LAA 2B - 21.65 A+, AA 2020 87 Daulton Varsho ARI C - 22.74 AZL, A+ 2020 88 Dustin May LAD RHP - 21.56 A+, AA 2020 89 Hans Crouse TEX RHP - 20.54 NWL, A 2021 90 Luis Oviedo CLE RHP - 19.87 NYP, A 2022 91 Triston Casas BOS 3B 1B 19.20 GCL 2022 92 Connor Scott MIA OF - 19.47 GCL, A 2022 93 Spencer Howard PHI RHP - 22.67 A 2020 94 Franklin Perez DET RHP - 21.31 GCL, A+ 2020 95 Ethan Hankins CLE RHP - 18.85 AZL 2022 96 Luis Garcia PHI SS - 18.49 GCL 2023 97 Ronny Mauricio NYM SS - 17.98 GCL, APP 2022 98 Julio Rodriguez SEA OF - 18.25 DSL 2023 99 Orelvis Martinez TOR SS - 17.36 N/A 2023 100 Grayson Rodriguez BAL RHP - 19.37 GCL 2022

OBSERVATIONS

Interplay Between Fantasy Formats & Risk Assessment

Often, there is a limit on the number of prospects a team can roster in most fantasy formats. For instance, this limit can be a strict roster size cap (i.e., a team can only place 10 players in the minors) or a restriction on the number of keepers (i.e., a team can only keep 5 prospects or 40 total players). Nevertheless, many leagues restrict rostering and retention of prospects. Consequently, higher upside, extremely young prospects can be costly investments. In formats without restriction, or simply with expansive rosters, these high-upside, high-risk prospects are more valuable. Consequently, the risk and required lead-time of such prospects is not a significant detriment. Further, some owners simply choose to gamble on upside, thinking it is better to risk missing on a potential elite talent than hit on a solid performer.

RISING PROSPECTS

If we ignore risk, and focus only on upside, young players with loud tools made significant jumps in the rankings. Further, players saddled with injuries and who are likely to miss most-to-all of this season receive a boost.

Player Upside-Only Top 500 Difference Malcom Nunez STL 49 162 113 Orelvis Martinez 99 200 101 Marco Luciano SF 48 147 99 Anderson Espinoza SD 43 141 98 Julio Rodriguez SEA 98 196 98 Ethan Hankins CLE 95 185 90 Grayson Rodriguez BAL 100 186 86 Antonio Cabello NYY 44 125 81 George Valera CLE 47 128 81 Cole Winn TEX 46 121 75

In addition, several others vaulted toward the top of the rankings. Notably, Hunter Greene soared from outside the top 40 into the top 10, while Nate Pearson, Kristian Robinson, and Jordyn Adams move from outside the top 50 into the top 25.

FALLING PROSPECTS

Meanwhile, hitters with more muted tools and pitchers without premium repertoire or big arms fell in the rankings. Additionally, players on the cusp of the majors took a substantial hit. Indeed, several top 50 prospects completely fell out of the upside-only top 100, including Francisco Mejia, Alex Verdugo, Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Urias, and Kyle Wright.

NOTABLE RISING PROSPECTS IN NEXT 100

Last year, this section included Kristian Robinson, George Valera, Esteury Ruiz, Luis Garcia, and Julio Rodriguez. This year, these exciting prospects should be strong follows, and a hot start (which, for some, will not occur until June) could elevate them up the rankings.

Catcher : Bo Naylor, Cleveland Indians

: Bo Naylor, Cleveland Indians First Base : Grant Lavigne, Colorado Rockies

: Grant Lavigne, Colorado Rockies Second Base : Tucupita Marcano, San Diego Padres

: Tucupita Marcano, San Diego Padres Third Base : Mark Vientos, New York Mets; Sherten Apostel, Texas Rangers; Jake Burger, Chicago White Sox; Danny Diaz, Boston Red Sox

: Mark Vientos, New York Mets; Sherten Apostel, Texas Rangers; Jake Burger, Chicago White Sox; Danny Diaz, Boston Red Sox Shortstop : Noelvi Marte, Seattle Mariners; Wander Javier, Minnesota Twins; Freudis Nova, Houston Astros; Brayan Rocchio, Cleveland Indians; Jeremiah Jackson, Los Angeles Angels; Antoni Flores, Boston Red Sox; Aaron Bracho, Cleveland Indians; Miguel Hiraldo, Toronto Blue Jays; Gabriel Rodriguez, Cleveland Indians; Alexander Vargas, New York Yankees; Juan Guerrero, Colorado Rockies

: Noelvi Marte, Seattle Mariners; Wander Javier, Minnesota Twins; Freudis Nova, Houston Astros; Brayan Rocchio, Cleveland Indians; Jeremiah Jackson, Los Angeles Angels; Antoni Flores, Boston Red Sox; Aaron Bracho, Cleveland Indians; Miguel Hiraldo, Toronto Blue Jays; Gabriel Rodriguez, Cleveland Indians; Alexander Vargas, New York Yankees; Juan Guerrero, Colorado Rockies Outfield : Kevin Alcantara, New York Yankees; Misael Urbina, Minnesota Twins; D’Shawn Knowles, Los Angeles Angels; Parker Meadows, Detroit Tigers; Jhon Torres, St. Louis Cardinals; Alexander Canario, San Francisco Giants; Nick Schnell, Tampa Bay Rays; Cole Roederer, Chicago Cubs; Everson Pereira, New York Yankees; Mike Siani, Cincinnati Reds; Garrett Whitley, Tampa Bay Rays

: Kevin Alcantara, New York Yankees; Misael Urbina, Minnesota Twins; D’Shawn Knowles, Los Angeles Angels; Parker Meadows, Detroit Tigers; Jhon Torres, St. Louis Cardinals; Alexander Canario, San Francisco Giants; Nick Schnell, Tampa Bay Rays; Cole Roederer, Chicago Cubs; Everson Pereira, New York Yankees; Mike Siani, Cincinnati Reds; Garrett Whitley, Tampa Bay Rays Pitcher: Deivi Garcia, New York Yankees; Zack Burdi, Chicago Cubs; Eric Pardinho, Toronto Blue Jays; Ryan Weathers, San Diego Padres; Mason Denaburg, Washington Nationals; James Kaprielian, Oakland Athletics; Clarke Schmidt, New York Yankees; Jay Groome, Boston Red Sox; Braxton Garrett, Miami Marlins; Lenny Torres, Cleveland Indians; Jordan Holloway, Miami Marlins; Simeon Woods-Richardson, New York Mets; Adam Kloffenstein, Toronto Blue Jays; Richard Gallardo, Chicago Cubs; Osiel Rodriguez, New York Yankees; Chris Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels; Sam Carlson, Seattle Mariners

Further, you can find more information about the most of the prospects above in the articles below.

Jesse Roche's 2019 Prospect Series

Please feel free to post comments, questions, or your own observations!

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