By Adnan Khan

After half a decade war the bloody battle for Syria’s largest city – Aleppo, is coming to an end. The loss of the city by the rebels was surprising considering that in the middle of 2015, according to IHS Jane’s Information Group, Bashar al-Assad controlled an area only the size of Belgium, a mere 17% of Syrian territory, whilst the rebels had seized 83% of the country. With the help of both Russia and Iran, al-Assad has been able to turn the tide with a brutal siege upon the residents of Aleppo. The capture of Aleppo will mark the biggest victory for al-Assad since the uprising began and the heaviest blow it has dealt the rebel groups, but the victory may well turn out to be al-Assad’s curse.

Bashar al-Assad did not achieve victory in Aleppo through the capability of his armed forces and security services. His forces were not armed with more advanced weaponry than the 250,000 civilians in East Aleppo or the 8,000 – 10,000 rebel fighters. The battle for Aleppo in reality was between Russia’s air force and Iran’s mercenaries filling the rank and file of the force that fought for Aleppo. The Syrian army was led by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and supplemented with thousands of Shi’a militia from Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Lebanon and with air power provided by Russia. Despite all this power it has taken over half a decade to retake the city. It has taken over a year, with significant external support to even retake the city and then it was only taken through Stalingrad style tactics of razing the city to the ground. The concentration of so many troops and resources on Aleppo is what it took to defeat a few thousand rebels. This is not a sign of strength.

[pullquote align=”right” color=”” class=”” cite=”” link=””]The concentration of so many troops and resources on Aleppo is what it took to defeat a few thousand rebels. This is not a sign of strength.[/pullquote]

As the war has dragged on for half a decade, al-Assad faces a serious manpower shortage. By some esti­mates the Syrian army has shrunk from around 300,000 per­son­nel to below 150,000 today.[1] The Syr­ian mil­i­tary in 2015 was hav­ing prob­lems putting enough men on the battlefield. Bashar al-Assad tried to fill the military ranks with foreign mercenaries. Hizbullah filled some of the ranks, but the overwhelming majority are Shi’a militia organised by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran. But while most of loyalist forces of al-Assad were busy conducting operations in Aleppo, ISIS overran Palmyra.[2] Capturing any area is requiring the mass concentration of troops and this is leaving other areas poorly manned and vulnerable to attack and capture. Al-Assad has tried to fill loyalist ranks with foreign militias, but even the influx of fighters from abroad has not adequately compensated for years of casualties, desertions and defections. Simply put, al-Assad’s overstretched forces will have trouble not only seizing new ground but also finding the troops to hold it and all of this takes place with al-Assad completely reliant upon foreign troops.

The loss of Aleppo by the rebels is a strategic loss, but it frees up rebel groups from governing Syria’s largest city, allowing them to focus on guerrilla warfare and extracting a huge cost for al-Assad’s victory. Governing territory effectively by the rebel groups was always a challenge and led to competition between the rebel groups over resource rich areas. They were required to administer areas with little resources available as many areas had been severely bombed. Al-Assad will now have to muster a force to hold Aleppo which will require long supply lines from the centre and the South of Syria. These supply lines will also need to be protected which will require further manpower and resources, something al-Assad just doesn’t have. If the rebel groups resort to guerrilla warfare and in small units attack different parts of the supply line that maintain the occupation of Aleppo, this will bleed the al-Assad regime which is already struggling with its manpower, finance and economy in decline. Winning territory over your adversaries is one thing, holding it is completely different.

For the regime in Damascus the battle to endure has been very costly. Syria’s economy is in dire straits. Government-held territories have offered economic stability relative to most bombed-out rebel positions, which has been a powerful draw to Syrian citizens to support al-Assad. But as the conflict has worn on, the economic conditions and living standards in these havens have deteriorated. The ISIS operation to retake Palmyra, for instance, led to the capture of most of the regimes remaining energy fields. The costs of financing military forces and repairing damage from the war will only increase al-Assad’s dependence on foreign sponsors. How committed both Russia and Iran are to Syria remains to be seen when the battle has gone on for over half a decade and is consuming ever more resources. The potential weakening of this financial lifeline will continue to be an ever-present risk for al-Assad. Reinvigorated by the fall of Aleppo, the al-Assad regime will press on with the war, though a military victory remains a remote prospect. The people and rebels, too, are no more inclined to accept a peace deal that allows al-Assad to stay in power, regardless of the setback that Aleppo’s loss represents. Although the capture of Aleppo will be a decisive moment in the battle for Syria, by no means will it be the tipping point that brings the conflict to a swift end.

Though al-Assad and his loyalists will celebrate their victory over Aleppo, this may be short lived as it will consume a lot of resources to maintain the city, resources the regime just does not have. It has taken half a decade for Bashar al-Assad to achieve his most crucial victory. His victory in Aleppo was achieved through slaughtering the people and bombing the town to dust. The rebels formed at most 10,000 troops and despite all the might of Russia and Iran it took so long for the forces of al-Assad to regain the city. A total military victory would take the al-Assad government years to achieve, if such a victory is even possible.

[1] http://www.wsj.com/articles/syria-armys-weakness-exacerbated-by-draft-dodgers-1433544837

[2] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-aleppo-idUSKBN1400H4?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+(News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News)