British Columbia has seen its population grow by more than two million residents since 1976, going from 2.53 to 4.58 million people (in 2013). This overall growth of 81 percent translated to an average annual rate of expansion of 1.6 percent. That said, actual rates of annual growth deviated around this average, achieving several peaks and troughs. After relatively significant annual increases in the early-1980s (the 3.0 percent growth in 1980 being the most notable), average growth rates fell towards one percent through the mid-1980s as the provincial economy, and migration to BC, slowed.

Through the late-1980s to mid-1990s the province’s population expanded more rapidly, driven in part by the pull of a growing provincial economy and in part by the push of both slower economic growth in eastern Canada and the impending transfer of Hong Kong’s sovereignty from the United Kingdom to China in 1997. Overall, the years spanning 1987 to 1997 saw the province’s population grow at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent, with peaks of three percent seen in both 1990 and 1994.

Following this period of above-average growth, BC’s economy slowed, resulting in population growth falling just below one percent in 1998 and further to 0.5 percent by 2002. The 1998 to 2008 period saw the province’s population expand at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent, characterized by lows of 0.6 percent in 2002 and 2003 and a peak of 1.4 percent in 2008.

Considering the most recent past, population growth in BC—and in many other Canadian provinces—picked up steam through the late-2000s, reaching a peak of 1.4 percent in 2008 and 2009. The Great Recession of 2008/09 resulted in an abatement of growth both provincially and nationally, with annual population growth rates dipping to one percent in 2012. Current estimates for 2013 show a slight uptick in the growth rate, to 1.1 percent.

In looking ahead, the provincial population is projected to grow by a further 41 percent by 2041 through the addition of 1.87 million residents. Changing demographics will see annual growth rates fall below historical levels over this period, however, as they would average 1.1 percent between 2013 and 2041. That said, BC is expected to experience the second-fastest rate of growth over this period when compared to other Canadian provinces, behind only Alberta. In absolute terms, Ontario—with its large population today—is projected to add the greatest number of residents by 2041.

Components of Future Demographic Change

Migration will continue to be the predominant driver to population growth in BC in the coming years, with net international migration (as opposed to net inter-provincial migration) continuing to have the greatest influence on the province’s population, just as it has since the early-1990s. More specifically, the process of people moving to BC from other countries (including both permanent and temporary residents) would add an average of more than 47,000 people each year to the province between 2013 and 2041. While above the 39,000 currently being added annually (and the 32,000 added annually over the past three decades), this sustained level of net immigration would still be below the peak levels seen in the mid-1990s (45,000 annually) and in the late-2000s (47,000 in 2007 and 52,000 in 2008).