Hi Anatole,



I too, have written about the oil market, and it appears that until now, we were in perfect alignment, especially on pricing.



However, I've said all along, that since the oil price crash, oil will rebound at a rate of about $10/bbl/per year (beginning in January 2016)



This June (2015) the crude oil price is $50./bbl -- exactly as I had called it in December 2015, and in June of 2015.



June 2016 will see the crude oil price at $60./bbl and June 2017 will see the crude oil price at $70./bbl, and so on. This equation will continue for perhaps 2 decades. (Yes, oil will get expensive again)



There are hundreds of reasons for this; Allow me to cover the Top 3:



1) Except for Iran, it is in the best interests of all the oil-producers to enjoy a higher price for their oil. Consequently, they are all *working around Iran* and setting their production quotas accordingly. This means that Iran can pump more, while the other producers in totality, pump slightly less per month. How much less? Just enough so that the oil price remains stable.



2) Slowly increasing demand will raise the price of oil by $10.00/bbl/per year. All that #1 (above) is doing, is allowing that natural market progression to occur.



3) Over the long term, the most profound change of all is coming to the oil industry (and indeed, has already begun) with oil companies becoming 'Vertically Integrated' organizations. That is where the same company (or a branch of the same company) extracts the oil, refines the oil, and delivers it to the retailer. All oil companies are moving in this direction at varying speeds.



In fact, that largest oil refinery in the U.S.A. (Port Arthur, Texas) is now owned by a Saudi firm, and it is refining Saudi, Venezuelan, and Texas oil. Shell is doing the same thing a few miles away from the Saudi operation. And still other oil companies are doing this around the world.



As Vertical Integration becomes a larger part of the market, we will see the wild oil price swings to which we've been accustomed, begin to disappear -- replaced by incremental price increases, more geared to the final retail prices.



This era of gently rising oil prices and Vertical Integration began in earnest on January 1, 2016, but has been building since 2005.



Oil speculators may hate the fact that we are now in a stable oil market, but the global oil supply and price is far too important to the world economy to be left to speculators -- in whose financial interests it is to wreak havoc in the oil markets, rather than support a stable oil supply/demand/marketplace.



That's just the Top 3 reasons for our new oil paradigm.



As always, very best regards, JBS



