Guernsey population cap policy should end, it is claimed Published duration 5 November 2015

image caption Deputy Jonathan Le Tocq expects the population to rise in the short term before falling again

A policy of trying to cap Guernsey's population should be scrapped, according to senior politicians.

In 2007 the States agreed its policies should support maintaining the population at the then level of 61,175.

But while the island's population rose to 62,500 last year the working population has fallen steadily despite rises in net immigration.

Chief Minister Jonathan Le Tocq said the cap was a "blunt instrument" and "not smart enough" for the island.

He said: "We're already in a situation where those who are in work are effectively in decline.

"Those who are not are actually increasing and that will only get more serious."

Policy Council findings

Its report said: "The fiscal, economic and social repercussions of demographic change are the most significant long-term issues Guernsey faces"

Projections suggest by 2025 the workforce could be 13% smaller, although the overall population could be about the same

Long-term projections suggest the population will fall significantly if a net inward migration of 200 people a year is not achieved

Increasing life expectancy - at a rate of an extra year every five years - is also expected to increase the number of people that have to be supported by the working population

Guernsey's birth rate is currently 1.6 births per woman. A rate of 2.1 is considered necessary to create a long-term stable population in terms of numbers

The high cost of living in Guernsey, in particular the cost of housing, means having a large family is often considered impractical

Increasing the birth rate now would not result in more working-age people until the 2030s at the earliest, with education to 18 or beyond it is more likely to not have an impact until 2040s

Recommends employers need to ensure they have family-friendly policies in place to support workers with children - who are the next generation of the workforce

It also recommends firms whose employees do physically demanding jobs look at ways of supporting them until they reach pensionable age

Deputy Le Tocq continued: "We're a small community and we know the dangers of getting this wrong. It could have quite a major effect on us, which is why the blunt figure, the crude figure of just an overall population is not enough, not sophisticated enough.

"We have the tools through our electronic census system to have a real-time view of the changes that are happening in our population... so it should be possible for us to recognise if we need to get, for example, more nurses.

"If our population needs to increase for a season, which I believe it will need to in order for us to redress that balance, then we can monitor that and it may be that in the future it could come down to even lower than we are at the moment."

The States will vote on the change in December.