Chris Berman has taken his Swami Sez NFL picks segment seen on SportsCenter to ESPN Chalk. Each week during the NFL regular season, he'll give his favorite picks against the spread here with a little further analysis.

Season record: 24-8 ATS (last week: 3-2)

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Are we going to get the Miami team that beat the Steelers and played the Seahawks close, or the one that we've seen the rest of the season? I give the Dolphins credit for that Steelers win, as it was in the game even before Big Ben got hurt. I'm a little hesitant to take the Bills in a potential trap game with New England on deck (and with LeSean McCoy a game-time decision), but I think they pull this one out. They've covered five of the past six against the Dolphins, including a 41-14 win last year in Miami.

Score: Buffalo 23, Miami 17

Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets

Baltimore has a lot of injuries on both offense and defense, as six usual starters could be out against the Jets. However, I can't take Geno Smith even at home. At least not yet. And remember: Despite all of the injuries, if Baltimore wins and Pittsburgh loses this week, the Ravens will be tied for the AFC North lead at 4-3 with a trip to Pittsburgh looming in Week 9. Baltimore finds a way to pull this one out on the road.

Score: Baltimore 20, New York 17

San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons

I was very impressed with Atlanta's 26-22 loss in Seattle on Sunday. The Falcons are a legit team, but maybe the worm has turned for this 2-4 Chargers squad. You're giving me Philip Rivers in what should be a shootout, and with a sizeable head start? I'm going to take it. Chargers take this one in an upset.

Score: San Diego 31, Atlanta 30

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers

Anyone who doesn't see New England as the favorite to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 51 isn't looking close enough. However, you will never get Pittsburgh at this price in Heinz Field. Yes, the Patriots probably wouldn't lose to Tom Landry, let alone Landry Jones, but Vegas has lured me in with this price. New England wins, but Pittsburgh keeps it close.

Score: New England 24, Pittsburgh 20

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

The Seahawks have a chance to make it easy on themselves here, as they could create some real separation in the NFC West with a win in Arizona -- just as the Cardinals did to them last season. I'll still believe in Seattle if it loses this game, but this would be a big step toward some of the Seahawks' larger goals. I think that defense has something to prove after a poor third quarter against Atlanta on Sunday.

Score: Seattle 24, Arizona 19