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1. A fresh start for all

Let's be honest: if Florida State's improbable 13-0 start had happened to a different team, it would have been a thrill.

TL;DR Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports



Projected S&P+ ranking: 17



5-year recruiting ranking: 3



Biggest strength: The potential at running back and receiver is off the charts.



Biggest question mark: The trenches are questionable, offense because of inexperience and defense because 2014's depth troubles might not be solved.



Biggest 2015 game: Win at Clemson (Nov. 7), and FSU might be the favorite to win the league in a rebuilding year.



In one sentence: With new pieces, youth, and a couple of wafer-thin units, FSU probably won't be a national contender, but the Noles have an excellent chance of winning a fourth straight ACC title. : 17: 3: The potential at running back and receiver is off the charts.: The trenches are questionable, offense because of inexperience and defense because 2014's depth troubles might not be solved.: Win at Clemson (Nov. 7), and FSU might be the favorite to win the league in a rebuilding year.With new pieces, youth, and a couple of wafer-thin units, FSU probably won't be a national contender, but the Noles have an excellent chance of winning a fourth straight ACC title.

If an NC State or Pitt had won 13 straight games, almost all by small margins or last-second heroics, it would have been a sweetheart underdog story. We'd have talked about clutchitude and belief and togetherness. We'd have been rooting for this team to reach the College Football Playoff despite the fact that it was clearly not top-four-caliber. (We'd have also assumed it would get smoked by Oregon.)

The underdog run is the most adored of March Madness traditions, and in the first year of the Playoff, we had one. Only, we hated it.

Instead of an out-of-nowhere surprise, this underdog was the defending national champion. The Seminoles were full of blue-chippers and familiar faces, none more familiar (for better and worse) than that of Jameis Winston, the former Heisman Trophy winner and future No. 1 pick. No one enjoys a favorite playing the role of underdog.

Like an aging NBA center, the Seminoles were a step slower and more hobbled, able to turn it on at the last possible second and not a moment before. And it took a while to notice. The big names played big roles -- Winston, Eddie Goldman, Mario Edwards, Rashad Greene, Tre' Jackson, Cameron Erving, Nick O'Leary, Jalen Ramsey -- but injuries and youth created unexpected holes. That the Noles were able to pull games out at the last minute was incredible; that they had to was a sign of things to come.

The Noles mastered the art of running out the clock for a majority decision instead of going for a knockout. Until the Florida game, they never really played poorly. They just never really played well.

They needed a late onside kick to fend off Oklahoma State. They needed a miraculous fumble recovery to force overtime and beat Clemson. They fell behind NC State by 17 points in the first quarter and Louisville by 21 points in the second. They needed a (correct) offensive pass interference call to negate a last-second Notre Dame touchdown. They took their first lead against Miami with three minutes left and needed a last-minute red zone interception. They needed a missed field goal to avoid overtime against Boston College. They created half as many scoring opportunities as Florida in a confusing win.

Florida State became the perfect team for the battle between stats and "just winning." The numbers caught on to FSU from Day 1 and never treated the Seminoles like an elite team. The Seminoles never played like one. But until they lost a game, that didn't matter.

Against Oregon, the FSU offense began to make the mistakes opponents always made, blowing scoring opportunities in the first half and losing the football like it was greased in the second. The defense, a glaring issue all season, was hopeless. In suffering his first collegiate loss, Winston briefly lost control of his body, and that was that. The Winston era ended with 27 wins and a devastating loss.

Ignoring the week-to-week drama -- and I am, of course, referring to the games on Saturdays and the Internet warfare that went on from Sunday to Friday (2014: the year #FSUTwitter came into its own) -- Florida State's recent history actually tells us a pretty easy story.

With 2014's No. 15 F/+ ranking, the Seminoles have finished between 12th and 19th for four of Jimbo Fisher's five seasons. (The exception: the No. 1 finish in 2013.) The offense failed to coalesce and help an elite defense in 2011-12, the stars aligned in 2013, and then the defense fell apart in 2014. The end products were about the same, with the results differing because of close-game outcomes (a 2-3 record in one-possession games in 2011 led to a 9-4 finish; a 7-0 record in 2014 got the 'Noles to 13-1).

That tells us that, no matter the turnover, the Seminoles have a high floor. That's what solid coaching and great recruiting will do. But with a new quarterback, an almost completely new offensive line, and some thin spots on defense, it's unlikely the stars will align in 2015. Another top-20 performance might be good enough to win a fourth-straight ACC title in a league that might not feature a top-15 team, but that's almost certainly all FSU is playing for.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 13-1 | Adj. Record: 13-1 | Final F/+ Rk: 15 Date Opponent Opp. F/+ Rk Score W-L Percentile

Performance Adj. Scoring

Margin Win

Expectancy 30-Aug vs. Oklahoma State 75 37-31 W 58% 4.6 53% 6-Sep The Citadel N/A 37-12 W 87% 26.0 100% 20-Sep Clemson 14 23-17 W 79% 19.1 50% 27-Sep at NC State 55 56-41 W 81% 20.2 79% 4-Oct Wake Forest 101 43-3 W 95% 39.0 100% 11-Oct at Syracuse 80 38-20 W 82% 21.7 97% 18-Oct Notre Dame 34 31-27 W 84% 22.9 84% 30-Oct at Louisville 23 42-31 W 84% 23.6 77% 8-Nov Virginia 39 34-20 W 77% 16.9 77% 15-Nov at Miami 31 30-26 W 79% 19.2 68% 22-Nov Boston College 36 20-17 W 79% 19.0 75% 29-Nov Florida 32 24-19 W 53% 1.5 16% 6-Dec vs. Georgia Tech 8 37-35 W 82% 21.1 72% 1-Jan vs. Oregon 3 20-59 L 40% -5.7 1%

Category Offense Rk Defense Rk S&P+ 37.9 16 24.3 40 Points Per Game 33.7 34 25.6 51

2. Remarkable consistency

The strangest thing about FSU's 2014 is that, no matter how dramatic it was in real time, it made sense on paper. The Seminoles put up nearly the same level of performance every week. In terms of percentiles, they fell between 77 percent and 87 percent in nine of their first 11 games, falling below that mark against OSU and surpassing it against Wake Forest.

The defensive front seven suffered injury after injury, and the performance barely wavered. Winston was suspended against Clemson, and FSU still put up a 79th percentile performance. You're never going to see less variance than that, especially considering how much the personnel changed from week to week.

That two of FSU's three worst performances came at the end of the season could be randomness, and it could have been reality eventually settling in.

Average Percentile Performance (first 11 games) : 80% (~top 25)

: 80% (~top 25) Average Percentile Performance (last 3 games): 58% (~top 55)

From the second week, FSU was what it was: a good team that knew how to make plays in the fourth quarter. What felt like a mirage was the opposite; the Noles were exactly what they were, nothing more and nothing less.

The wheels did come off. Despite outgaining Florida by 24 yards, the Seminoles created just four scoring opportunities (first downs inside the opponent's 40) to the Gators' eight, which made their 24-19 win their least likely result of the season. They took down an excellent Georgia Tech, but the dud against Oregon finished them off. But hey, even an 80th-percentile performance wouldn't have beaten Oregon.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE Raw Category Rk Opp. Adj. Category Rk EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 0.86 57 IsoPPP+ 131.4 13 EFFICIENCY Succ. Rt. 47.9% 16 Succ. Rt. + 126.9 5 FIELD POSITION Def. Avg. FP 31.0 88 Def. FP+ 98.0 92 FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 4.8 35 Redzone S&P+ 126.1 8 TURNOVERS EXPECTED 27.6 ACTUAL 32 +4.4

Category Yards/

Game Rk S&P+ Rk Success

Rt. Rk PPP+ Rk OVERALL 38 7 6 13 RUSHING 98 19 22 15 PASSING 14 7 1 18 Standard Downs 7 6 12 Passing Downs 20 13 23

Q1 Rk 43 1st Down Rk 7 Q2 Rk 1 2nd Down Rk 26 Q3 Rk 10 3rd Down Rk 3 Q4 Rk 31



Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp

Rate Sacks Sack Rate Yards/

Att. Jameis Winston

305 467 3907 25 18 65.3% 17 3.5% 7.8 Everett Golson

(Notre Dame) 6'0, 201 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8937 256 427 3445 29 14 60.0% 27 5.9% 7.2 Sean Maguire 6'3, 224 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8704 25 49 339 1 2 51.0% 6 10.9% 5.2 John Franklin III 6'0, 183 So. 3 stars (5.6) NR J.J. Cosentino 6'4, 237 RSFr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9066 Deondre Francois 6'2, 191 Fr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9671



















3. Poor Sean Maguire

Sean Maguire is almost certainly a decent quarterback. He's got good size and a playmaker's instincts, and he's been mentored for three years under an experienced quarterbacks coach (Randy Sanders) and a head coach with previous success as a QBs coach. If he were to serve as FSU's signal caller, he would probably be capable of engineering a top-20 finish.

But our eyes don't forget. In Maguire's single moment in the spotlight, he bombed. Against Clemson in a huge early contest, he completed 21 of 39 passes, threw two costly picks, and grew harried. And that colors our perceptions.

Never mind that Clemson had one of the nation's most elite defenses, with a front four that harried everybody. And never mind that his first career start came in prime time in strange circumstances. He struggled, and now most of us assume that Notre Dame graduate transfer Everett Golson will be FSU's starting quarterback.

Of course, Golson's own successes play into that. He helped Notre Dame to an undefeated regular season in 2012 and was easily the most composed Irish player in a disastrous BCS Championship loss to Alabama. He was magnificent for most of the first half of 2014. Golson shouldered a heavy load; he completed 70 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns to two picks in September, he eased the Irish past Stanford in a home win, and he all but led Notre Dame past FSU in Tallahassee in mid-October.

At his best, Golson is a game manager with upside, a careful quarterback with the elusiveness to make great things happen. At his worst, the mistakes pile up quickly.

Golson was one of only three players to fumble 12 times in 2014. He threw four picks against ASU, and his fumbles were increasingly loopy. After going 7-for-18 with a 62.8 passer rating against USC, he was benched in favor of Malik Zaire.

With protection, Golson can lead you to great things. But now might be a good time to point out FSU's line must replace five players who had combined for 174 career starts. Returning starts up front: 9.

Maguire fits more of a gunslinger model than Golson, and it's not out of the question that an aggressive mentality might be needed with a porous line.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Rushes Yards TD Yards/

Carry Hlt Yds/

Opp. Opp.

Rate Fumbles Fum.

Lost Dalvin Cook RB 6'0, 203 So. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9937 170 1008 8 5.9 6.7 39.4% 4 4 Karlos Williams RB

151 689 11 4.6 4.3 35.1% 3 1 Everett Golson

(Notre Dame) QB 6'0, 201 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8937 87 456 8 5.2 5.3 47.1% 12 8 Mario Pender RB 5'10, 204 Jr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9824 41 206 4 5.0 5.9 36.6% 1 1 Jameis Winston QB

40 207 3 5.2 5.3 45.0% 7 2 Ryan Green CB







6 31 0 5.2 1.4 66.7% 0 0 Freddie Stevenson FB 6'1, 244 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8861 Johnathan Vickers RB 6'1, 215 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8697 Jacques Patrick RB 6'1, 232 Fr. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9821

















Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target

Rate %SD Yds/

Target NEY Real Yds/

Target RYPR Rashad Greene WR-X

143 99 1365 69.2% 29.3% 60.1% 9.5 185 9.6 218.9 Nick O'Leary TE

77 48 618 62.3% 15.8% 67.5% 8.0 34 8.0 99.1 Jesus Wilson WR-Y 5'9, 181 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8681 65 42 527 64.6% 13.3% 61.5% 8.1 20 8.2 84.5 Travis Rudolph WR-Z 6'2, 187 So. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9781 63 38 555 60.3% 12.9% 61.9% 8.8 90 8.6 89.0 Karlos Williams RB

37 29 265 78.4% 7.6% 64.9% 7.2 -74 7.0 42.5 Dalvin Cook RB 6'0, 203 So. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9937 25 22 203 88.0% 5.1% 72.0% 8.1 -49 8.7 32.5 Ermon Lane WR-Z 6'3, 205 So. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9889 19 13 267 68.4% 3.9% 47.4% 14.1 112 14.1 42.8 Kermit Whitfield WR-Z 5'7, 183 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9011 16 11 145 68.8% 3.3% 62.5% 9.1 14 9.1 23.2 Mario Pender RB 5'10, 204 Jr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9824 13 10 56 76.9% 2.7% 69.2% 4.3 -61 4.0 9.0 Christian Green WR-Z

11 6 120 54.5% 2.3% 54.5% 10.9 45 11.4 19.2 Freddie Stevenson FB 6'1, 244 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8861 9 7 72 77.8% 1.8% 77.8% 8.0 -10 11.2 11.5 Ryan Izzo TE 6'6, 243 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8715 2 1 7 50.0% 0.4% 0.0% 3.5 -6 N/A 1.1 Jeremy Kerr TE 6'5, 261 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8170 Ja'Vonn Harrison WR-X 6'2, 199 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9187 Mavin Saunders TE 6'6, 258 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.9017 George Campbell WR-Y 6'3, 197 Fr. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9902 Da'Vante Phillips WR 6'1, 203 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9526 Auden Tate WR 6'5, 205 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9025 Jalen Wilkerson TE 6'4, 230 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8727

4. The ceiling is too high to define

If the line holds up and the quarterback play is decent, FSU's offense will score a lot. It will be impossible not to with the explosive upside of the skill positions.

Dalvin Cook fumbled too much last year but breathed life into a struggling running game. His explosiveness is immense, and while he was a freshman, he still put up better efficiency numbers than either Karlos Williams or Mario Pender. FSU immediately boasts one of the ACC's best running backs, but the backups are intriguing, too. Pender still has plenty of upside, Freddie Stevenson is a unique weapon as a fullback with ball-carrying potential, and incoming five-star Jacques Patrick might surpass Pender sooner than later.

There might be even more upside at receiver. Five-star freshmen Travis Rudolph and Ermon Lane were inconsistent (they were freshmen, after all), but they still combined to catch 51 of 82 passes for 822 yards, more than 10 yards per target. Jesus Wilson was a decent efficiency option, star return man Kermit Whitfield still has a chance to turn into a solid No. 3 or No. 4 target, and four-star sophomore Ja'Vonn Harrison waits his turn. And of course, another five-star freshman, George Campbell, will likely force his way into the mix. The potential is astounding.

The biggest issue will be efficiency. Big plays will win FSU plenty of games, but efficiency bailed out the Seminoles last year. They ranked first in Passing Success Rate+, thanks to not only Winston, but Rashad Greene and tight end Nick O'Leary, who combined for a 67 percent catch rate. With a new quarterback, a still-young receiving corps, a new line, and unknown weapons at tight end, FSU's success rates will inevitably falter, rendering the Noles explosive but inconsistent.

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Career Starts Honors/Notes Tre' Jackson RG 42 Unanimous All-American, 2014 1st All-ACC Cameron Erving C

42 All-American, 2014 1st All-ACC Josue Matias LG

43 Bobby Hart RT

37 Austin Barron C

10 Roderick Johnson LT 6'7, 312 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9415 5 Ryan Hoefeld LG 6'3, 293 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8585 4 Ruben Carter RG

0 Kareem Are LG 6'6, 330 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8715 0 Chad Mavety RT 6'5, 327 Jr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9190 0 Wilson Bell RG 6'4, 318 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8415 0 Corey Martinez RG 6'5, 293 RSFr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9061

Alec Eberle C 6'5, 294 RSFr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8727

Derrick Kelly LT 6'5, 310 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8623

Brock Ruble RT 6'8, 313 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8675

Abdul Bello OL 6'6, 300 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9553

Ethan Frith OL 6'7, 299 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8554





5. Uh oh

FSU's line was good, not great. Considering the presence of two All-Americans and the level of experience, that was disappointing. Still, you could do worse than 45th in Adj. Line Yards and ninth in Adj. Sack Rate; FSU almost certainly will do worse this fall.

The Seminoles return nine career starts up front, second-lowest in the country.

The potential is obvious -- left tackle Roderick Johnson was a stud recruit and started for nearly half of last season as a true freshman, and the staff is reportedly high on two former JUCO transfers, Chad Mavety and Kareem Are.

Still, compared to other units, FSU hasn't recruited like gangbusters up front -- only ("only") five of the 11 players listed above were four-star-plus recruits -- and Are and Mavety might be the only upperclassmen on the two-deep. This is a scary proposition, considering how both Golson (eventually) and Maguire (immediately) responded to pressure.

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Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE Raw Category Rk Opp. Adj. Category Rk EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 0.81 40 IsoPPP+ 112.6 36 EFFICIENCY Succ. Rt. 41.7% 71 Succ. Rt. + 99.3 68 FIELD POSITION Off. Avg. FP 28.9 94 Off. FP+ 99.0 78 FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 4.2 51 Redzone S&P+ 103.4 50 TURNOVERS EXPECTED 26.1 ACTUAL 26.0 -0.1

Category Yards/

Game Rk S&P+ Rk Success

Rt. Rk PPP+ Rk OVERALL 63 45 68 36 RUSHING 73 50 85 19 PASSING 60 50 60 51 Standard Downs 45 66 38 Passing Downs 43 70 31

Q1 Rk 50 1st Down Rk 68 Q2 Rk 61 2nd Down Rk 59 Q3 Rk 51 3rd Down Rk 29 Q4 Rk 80

6. Where did the disruption go?

Winston's interception rate was too high for a Heisman winner and top pick, Williams was far less efficient running the ball than I anticipated, and the offensive line was disappointing compared to expectations.

Still, it was difficult to blame the offense for too much. The Noles only fell from fourth to 16th in Off. S&P+. The main problems were on the other side: FSU fell from seventh to 40th in Def. S&P+.

The reasons aren't hard to explain. Ace defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt left for Georgia, the top three tackles (including stud Timmy Jernigan) left, almost everybody in the front seven missed time with injury, and without players like corner Lamarcus Joyner and linebacker Telvin Smith, there was a leadership void.

Still, considering the level of talent, the depth of the stumble was surprising. A defense that featured four players drafted in the first three rounds (including three members of the front seven) was inefficient against the run and had one of the worst pass rushes in the country.

The problem was havoc -- FSU just didn't have enough. The Seminoles' Havoc Rate fell from 19.2 percent to 15.7, which was at least part of the reasons for their fall from third in Success Rate+ to 68th. Tackle Eddie Goldman and end/OLB Mario Edwards Jr. combined for 19 tackles for loss and seven sacks, but nobody else in the front seven produced at a consistent level. And now Goldman and Edwards are gone.

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Mario Edwards, Jr. JACK

13 34.5 4.5% 11.0 3.0 0 5 2 0 Eddie Goldman DT

14 27.0 3.5% 8.0 4.0 0 1 1 0 Desmond Hollin DE

13 26.5 3.5% 4.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Chris Casher JACK 6'4, 249 Jr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9866 13 21.5 2.8% 3.5 1.0 0 2 0 0 Lorenzo Featherston DE 6'7, 229 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.9121 11 14.0 1.8% 5.0 1.0 0 0 1 0 Derrick Nnadi NG 6'2, 304 So. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9514 9 13.0 1.7% 1.5 0.0 0 1 0 0 Derrick Mitchell, Jr. NG 6'4, 307 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8956 12 13.0 1.7% 1.0 0.0 0 2 0 0 Jacob Pugh JACK 6'4, 247 So. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9657 13 9.5 1.2% 2.0 0.0 2 1 0 0 Nile Lawrence-Stample DT 6'1, 323 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8878 4 7.0 0.9% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0 Giorgio Newberry DT 6'6, 289 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9025 DeMarcus Walker DE 6'3, 277 Jr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9822 Justin Shanks DE 6'2, 325 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9341 Keith Bryant DT 6'2, 304 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9205

















Rick Leonard DE 6'7, 273 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8878 Demarcus Christmas DT 6'3, 302 RSFr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9363 Arthur Williams DT 6'5, 321 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8445

















Josh Sweat DE 6'5, 226 Fr. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9948 Darvin Taylor DT 6'3, 305 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9168



















Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Reggie Northrup MIKE 6'1, 226 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8931 14 91.5 12.0% 4.0 1.0 1 1 1 1 Terrance Smith WILL 6'4, 231 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8830 12 66.5 8.7% 4.5 1.0 2 1 1 0 DeMarcus Walker SAM 6'3, 277 Jr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9822 14 32.5 4.3% 6.0 1.0 0 0 1 0 Matthew Thomas MIKE 6'3, 224 So. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9956 8 23.5 3.1% 2.5 0.0 0 0 0 0 E.J. Levenberry WILL

13 16.0 2.1% 1.0 0.0 0 1 0 0 Ro'Derrick Hoskins LB 6'2, 234 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8760 13 5.5 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Delvin Purifoy LB 6'2, 254 RSFr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9212 Lorenzo Phillips LB 6'3, 230 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8929 Sh'Mar Kilby-Lane LB 6'2, 220 Fr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8993



















7. Injuries hurt

Above, I listed 19 linemen and linebackers who were on the 2014 roster; 16 were deemed four- or five-star recruits by either Rivals or the 247Sports Composite. That FSU managed to rank 85th in Rushing Success Rate+ despite this was jarring.

Equally stunning: the depth of FSU's line rotation. Despite only one tackle playing in all 14 games, only four tackles really played. Nile Lawrence-Stample got hurt four games in, and freshman Derrick Nnadi fell out of favor, but all that really meant was more playing time for hobbled star Eddie Goldman. It's no wonder that the fourth quarter was FSU's worst defensively (80th in Fourth Quarter S&P+).

That leaves coordinator Charles Kelly in an interesting position -- he's looking for both difference-makers and warm bodies up front. Lawrence-Stample is a nice boulder when healthy, and Nnadi showed potential, but there's playing time available for anybody trustworthy. And with so many former star recruits, odds are decent that someone will emerge. But one would have been expected to emerge last year, too.

Linebackers Reggie Northrup and Terrance Smith were steady, and despite turnover, the linebackers did a nice job of preventing big run plays. But without Edwards and Goldman, there's no proven pass rushing presence. Defensive back Jalen Ramsey is the only returnee who had more than one sack last year.

Between the pass rush and disturbing depth at linebacker (five-star sophomore Matthew Thomas had shoulder surgery this summer, and Northrup is still returning from an ACL injury he suffered in the Rose Bowl), FSU will be relying on newcomers to disrupt. [Update: Thomas was ruled ineligible in August.] Without someone -- blue-chip end Josh Sweat (also dealing with a recent injury), JUCO transfer Lorenzo Phillips, etc. -- stepping up, it's hard to see the front seven improving much.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Nate Andrews FS 5'11, 204 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8560 14 79.5 10.4% 0.5 0 3 5 1 0 P.J. Williams CB

13 63.0 8.3% 6.5 1 1 10 1 0 Jalen Ramsey CB 6'1, 201 Jr. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9921 14 63.0 8.3% 9.5 3 2 12 3 0 Tyler Hunter SS 5'11, 204 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8687 14 56.5 7.4% 2.5 1 1 7 0 1 Ronald Darby CB

14 35.5 4.7% 1 0 0 4 1 0 Lamarcus Brutus SS 6'0, 208 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8566 14 11.0 1.4% 0 0 2 1 0 0 Trey Marshall SS 6'0, 203 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9265 11 9.0 1.2% 1.5 0 0 0 0 0 Keelin Smith DB 6'3, 188 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8830 12 5.5 0.7% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nick Waisome CB

12 3.0 0.4% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Marquez White CB 6'0, 179 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8926 12 2.5 0.3% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tyrell Lyons DB 6'0, 219 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8712 11 2.0 0.3% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ryan Green CB 5'10, 198 Jr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9740 Malique Jackson CB 6'1, 171 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8643 Derwin James S 6'2, 212 Fr. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9981 Tarvarus McFadden DB 6'3, 200 Fr. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9908 Calvin Brewton DB 6'0, 178 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8957 Marcus Lewis DB 6'2, 194 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9354 A.J. Westbrook DB 6'0, 180 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8787

8. Where would the 'Noles have been without Jalen Ramsey?

Even with Ronald Darby (second-round draft pick) and P.J. Williams (third), the lack of a pass rush and iffy chemistry combined to form a mediocre pass defense. FSU fell from fourth in Passing S&P+ to 50th.

But it could have been worse; the 'Noles could have been without Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey is a natural nickel back and might have been FSU's best cornerback, safety, and linebacker. He was first on the team in passes defensed and second in TFLs and sacks. He's incredible. He'll take over as a pure corner, and opponents will struggle to get their No. 1 receivers open.

Now to solve the other problems. Since we can't assume the pass rush will be any better, it will be up to some combination of experienced, decent options (safeties Nate Andrews, Tyler Hunter, and Lamarcus Brutus, cornerback Marquez White) and high-upside newcomers (RB-turned-CB Ryan Green, sophomore safety Trey Marshall, and probably incoming five-stars Derwin James and Tarvarus McFadden) to make plays against quarterbacks who have time to throw. James is the bluest of blue-chippers, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him starting from Day 1.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2015

Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20

Ratio Cason Beatty 6'3, 215 Sr. 48 41.0 2 22 15 77.1%

Kicker Ht, Wt 2015

Year Kickoffs Avg TB OOB TB% Roberto Aguayo 6'1, 204 Jr. 96 62.8 49 2 51.0%

Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2015

Year PAT FG

(0-39) Pct FG

(40+) Pct Roberto Aguayo 6'1, 204 Jr. 55-55 18-18 100.0% 9-12 75.0%

Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Returns Avg. TD Kermit Whitfield KR 5'7, 183 Jr. 32 20.8 0 Jesus Wilson KR 5'9, 181 Jr. 10 22.8 0 Rashad Greene PR 15 10.7 0 Jesus Wilson PR 5'9, 181 Jr. 2 9.5 0

Category Rk Special Teams F/+ 50 Field Goal Efficiency 3 Punt Return Efficiency 93 Kick Return Efficiency 123 Punt Efficiency 63 Kickoff Efficiency 31 Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency 77

9. Where did the return game go?

In Ryan Switzer and Kermit Whitfield, the ACC boasted two return men who stole the show as freshman. UNC's Switzer returned five punts for touchdowns in 2013, and Whitfield changed the title game with a fourth-quarter kick return.

Both stunk in 2014. Or at least, neither had many great moments in small-sample opportunities. FSU's punt returns were inconsistent, and the kick returns were some of the least efficient in college football.

One assumes a bounce back because we've seen what Whitfield can do, but without better returns, the effects of the incredible Roberto Aguayo and the improving Cason Beatty will be neutralized.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk 5-Sep Texas State 109 12-Sep South Florida 90 18-Sep at Boston College 49 3-Oct at Wake Forest 89 10-Oct Miami 28 17-Oct Louisville 32 24-Oct at Georgia Tech 19 31-Oct Syracuse 73 7-Nov at Clemson 15 14-Nov NC State 48 21-Nov Chattanooga NR 28-Nov at Florida 29

Five-Year F/+ Rk 39.5% (7) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 3 / 3 2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -6 / -1.4 2014 TO Luck/Game -1.6 Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 11 (4, 7) 2014 Second-order wins (difference) 9.5 (3.5)

10. Better get 'em now, ACC

The rest of the ACC is blowing it. After three straight conference titles, Florida State is in full rebuild mode. The Seminoles will be breaking in a new quarterback and offensive line, and the defensive front seven is searching for new stars. There is too much upside for them to fall far, but a top-15 team could easily end FSU's streak.

One of those teams might not exist. The stats like Clemson, but the Tigers' offensive line just went from shaky to shakier, and all of their hopes are on a quarterback who got hurt three times in 2014. Louisville could be excellent if a bunch of newcomers click, but that's far from a given. Other ACC Atlantic threats are either retooling (Boston College) or not yet ready for a huge run (NC State). On the other side, anybody from Georgia Tech to Virginia Tech to Miami could end up strong, but they all have units to completely rebuild.

In other words, while FSU isn't a slam dunk, the Noles might still be the conference favorites. And considering how many key pieces will return in 2016, another FSU title would represent one hell of a missed opportunity for the rest of the league.

This is a legacy year for Jimbo Fisher. Even if FSU wasn't as good as it should have been last year, the Noles have won 58 games in five years, and with consistent top-5 recruiting, they will keep winning. Any major 2015 success would be a bonus, and that bonus might come to fruition.