The Major League Baseball draft kicks off tomorrow night at 8pm. The Cincinnati Reds will be drafting 2nd, 35th and 43rd overall on Thursday night. Day two will feature rounds 3-10 and day three will have rounds 11-40. Today we are going to take a look at my personal top five draft board. I made a video talking about each of the five players that are on my draft board and you can watch that above. You can also read about them below. It’s worth noting that as I was typing this article that news broke that Delvin Perez failed a drug test that’s given to the Top 200 prospects before the draft – and that certainly will come into play with where he winds up being drafted and he would certainly slide down my draft board because of it, but since I’d like the video and the article to be on the same page, I will keep him where I had him ranked.

5. Corey Ray | OF Louisville

The Good: He shows 5-tool potential with possible above-average power and above-average to plus speed.

The questions: Despite having outstanding speed there are a lot of questions about whether or not he’s going to be able to play center field. His average and on-base percentage were pretty much identical to what the Louisville Cardinals hit as a team, which probably isn’t what you want to see from a player you are taking at the top of the draft. He struck out more often than he walked, which you don’t often see from top end college hitters in their junior seasons.

The case for selecting him: If you are convinced he can handle center field defensively, he’s got a chance to be a superstar. He should steal plenty of bases and he’s got a chance to hit 20 home runs while also having a good average. If you put that bat into center field it’s a very, very good player.

The case against selecting him: If he can’t handle center fielder defensively, his bat loses plenty of it’s luster and he looks more like a solid all-around player than a guy with star potential. That he struck out more than he walked at Louisville may also suggest he’s not quite as polished and ready to move quickly through the system.

4. AJ Puk | LHP Florida

The Good: He arguably has the best stuff in the entire draft among the pitchers. He shows plus velocity from the left side to go with a potential plus slider and a solid change up. He’s shown the ability to dominate at times in college.

The Questions: Despite having such outstanding stuff, the results at Florida have never matched up with that stuff. His walk rate was never strong at Florida and it never improved from his freshman year through his junior year, walking 4.0 batters per 9 innings each season. He was very inconsistent in 2016 – at times struggling against teams he should have run through, but also going out and dominating teams in the SEC.

The case for selecting him: He’s got upside to be a #1 starting pitcher. He’s a big left handed pitcher with elite velocity, a very good slider and a solid change up who racked up big strikeout numbers in the SEC. Short of an injury robbing him of his stuff, at worst he looks like he’s a high leverage reliever.

The case against selecting him: He’s struggled with throwing strikes at a high rate since he joined the Florida Gators. Without better control there’s not much chance he’s going to be able to remain a starting pitcher. Despite his outstanding stuff, the results were never able to match up.

3. Kyle Lewis | OF Mercer

The Good: He’s got arguably the best raw power in the draft and his current power is at the top of the board among 2016 draftees. He’s an outstanding athlete who made big strides at the plate from his sophomore to junior seasons.

The Questions: He had a rather high strikeout rate for a college hitter, much less for one who played in a small conference against many pitchers who won’t have professional careers (minor or major leagues). While it’s a minor question, some scouts believe there’s a chance that Lewis can play center field in the future – though most believe he’s a right fielder.

The case for selecting him: His power potential gives him massive upside to work with. If a team really thinks he can stick in center field it gives him true superstar potential that may not be matched in the entire draft.

The case against selecting him: His contact problems against pitching in the Southern Conference are concerning and make you wonder just how much contact he will make against professional pitchers, which could lead to questions about just how much he will hit and hit for power.

2. Delvin Perez | SS Puerto Rican Baseball Academy

The Good: He has perhaps the best all around package of tools in the entire draft. He’s a true 5-tool potential kind of player. He’s got a quick bat that should help with his average and power, he’s got plus speed and he’s got above-average defensive tools.

The Questions: As noted above, as this was being written it came out that he failed a drug test that’s given to the Top 200 prospects in the draft (reports are that it was for a PED of some kind). There had already been some concerns with his maturity on the field, and now there are questions about his maturity off of the field. His pitch recognition was a question coming into the season, though that talk has cooled off some as the season has gone along.

The case for selecting him: He’s got superstar potential at a position that’s very difficult to fill at the Major League level. While there are some questions about his pitch recognition, his combination of defense and base running abilities at shortstop give him a high enough floor to work with if the bat doesn’t fully develop.

The case against selecting him: In the first draft of this article it wouldn’t have included the failed drug test, but now that we have that information, it’s a pretty big red flag. Aside from that though, the questions about just how much he will hit if he can’t continue to develop his pitch recognition leave him with arguably the lowest floor among the group of players at the top of the draft.

1. Nick Senzel | 3B Tennessee

The Good: He’s the safest pick in the draft. He walked twice as often as he struck out this season for Tennessee and showed off plenty of extra-base hit power with 34 extra-base hits. He’s also a solid defender at third base.

The Questions: The only real question with Senzel is how much home run power he will eventually hit for. He hit eight this season, which was a best for him while at Tennessee. Will he be able to tap into his above-average power potential in the future?

The case for selecting him: He’s the safest pick in the draft, and he’s probably is an every day third baseman. If you believe in the power coming to fruition you’re looking at a potential perennial all-star at the hot corner who should reach the big leagues very quickly with about as well rounded a game as any third baseman in the league.

The case against selecting him: There’s probably not true superstar upside with Senzel. He doesn’t likely have 30+ home run power, and there are some concerns about just how much home run power he will eventually hit for without sacrificing some of his ability to hit for average. If you don’t believe the home run power will reach the 20+ range, then you are looking at a solid every day player, but not someone you can likely build your team around.

It’s a strange year at the top of the draft where no one has really stepped forward and separated themselves from the pack. That could be both a blessing and a curse. The Reds could use that to their advantage in signing a player to an underslot deal that gives them more money to work with later in the draft, where saved money could buy out a talent that drops further than expected due to bonus demands. At the same time, they have their highest pick in the history of the franchise (tied) and no one has separated themselves from the pack and made it clear that they should be the pick. While there have been #2 overall picks that have been complete swings-and-misses, ideally you should be able to identify the guy who was the second best player in the draft at the time and that simply isn’t the case this year. If you look at five different sources you will probably get five different answers as to who the second best talent is.

There is also something very interesting going on here with the news about Delvin Perez and a failed drug test that’s caused him to fall down the draft boards across baseball. How far has he fallen? Baseball America didn’t have him landing in the first 34 picks of their most recent mock draft. The Reds pick 35th. They had been heavily linked to Perez up until the last few days, which likely are a result of them finding out about the failed drug test. If he’s there, would the team select him even with the baggage that comes along with it? It’s certainly a tempting thing and could land them with what it seems that everyone would agree would be two of the top 10 overall talents in the draft assuming they go with someone they’ve also been linked to at the second spot. An underslot deal at #2 and an overslot deal for Perez at #35 could be a very enticing option, even with the risk involved.

The next five draft prospects: #6: Mickey Moniak, #7: Blake Rutherford, #8: Zack Collins, #9: Braxton Garrett, #10: Jason Groome.