The abnormally cold air moving over the Great Lakes over the next two weeks will mean one other weather condition at least - lake effect snow.

Three waves of progressively colder air are going to hit Michigan over the next two weeks.

Cold air at this time of year usually takes several days or a week longer than we think to get the lake effect snow machine going. That means it will be next week when the lake effect becomes better put together, and the snowfall map looks impressive.

But before the lake effect weather pattern kicks in, a large area of Lower Michigan may have its first widespread accumulating snow.

Radar forecast at 2 p.m. Wednesday shows an area of snow and rain coming toward Michigan. (weathermodels.com)

A weather system could spread a general snow, not lake effect, across Lower Michigan Wednesday. A few things will go against much accumulation with the Wednesday system. First, it is expected to move through during the daylight hours. Even though it will be chilly, there is enough warmth during the daylight hours to make all snow a slim chance. Even with daylight warmth, much of the data shows the possibility of an inch or two of snow.

Total snowfall forecast from the GFS for Wednesday, November 6, 2019. (weathermodels.com)

The snow forecast above is a total snowfall for Wednesday. Remember there will be melting and sticking, melting and sticking on days like Wednesday. So I would cut the amounts in half as a realistic amount to expect on the grass by late Wednesday. This means a possible one to two inch snow.

Then the first wave of cold hits. This first wave will probably have random, moving areas of lake effect snow. Eventually by next week, the wind flow will lock into a mostly west-northwest flow. Lake effect snow will lock in then also, and start to pile up.

Radar forecast at 8 a.m. Tuesday, November 12, 2019. (weathermodels.com)

The data shows by next week, the wind flow and cold air will get us into a well developed lake effect situation.

Now I’m going to show you a total snowfall forecast through November 12, 2019. Remember, just because you see a foot of total snow, that doesn’t mean there will be that much snow on the ground at any one time. The snow this early melts occasionally during the daylight hours.

Total snowfall forecast through November 12, 2019 from the GFS model (weathermodels.com)

You can definitely see the classic footprint of the lake effect snow machine. It would certainly seem reasonable that over the next two weeks the heart of the lake effect snow belts could get cumulative over a foot of snow.

This amount of snow is at least two weeks ahead of the norm.