Despite headwinds, Democratic Governors Association says Missouri is 'wide open' in 2020

After scoring victories in Kentucky and Louisiana this month, the Democratic Governors Association is turning its attention to Missouri for 2020.

In a memo sent last week, Marshall Cohen, the organization’s political director, offered a sunny take on Auditor Nicole Galloway’s chances against Republican Gov. Mike Parson next year, calling it a “wide open” race that could be close given “the right resources.”

Early polling on the race to this point shows Parson with a healthy lead, and experts say Galloway faces an uphill battle.

Parson also boasts a significant advantage in fundraising thus far.

The DGA could help with money, though, and while its poll of 921 likely 2020 voters earlier this month also showed Parson leading Galloway, 45 percent to 36 percent, Cohen wrote that the deficit was no reason to despair.

He pointed out that Parson’s number was below the 50 percent threshold strong incumbents have heading into an election year and that additional poll questions suggested Galloway has room to expand her appeal.

Galloway led Parson 65 percent to 16 percent among Democrats polled, for example, which Cohen said indicated she would gain additional Democratic votes as she becomes better known among party faithful.

Cohen also predicted Galloway could do well with undecided voters, who the poll indicates are mostly Democrats who don’t like President Donald Trump, a Republican, and are far more likely to support Galloway than Parson after hearing basic facts about each candidate.

Galloway may also have the potential to attract more Missouri women to her cause: she led Parson by two percentage points among those polled after they heard her biography.

Political experts have said each group would be critical in a potential Galloway victory, which would likely rely on huge turnout among loyal Democrats in the major cities and winning on-the-fence voters turned off by Trump, who endorsed Parson in September.

Parson, on the other hand, is described as an incumbent embraced by Republicans, supporters of the president and white voters, but relatively unknown to Democrats and African Americans and weighed down by his support for a new law banning abortion after eight weeks of pregnancy except in cases of medical emergency.

Half of the voters polled said that law made them less likely to support Parson, including 20 percent of Republicans and Trump supporters. The eight-week ban has yet to take effect as attorneys debate its legality in court, but Parson gave full-throated support for the idea, telling reporters that he supported the ban even in cases of rape or incest because “all life has value.”

Related: Here are Missouri Gov. Parson's top supporters

Cohen also emphasized 40 percent of those polled couldn't rate Parson's performance since taking over the top job for the resigning Eric Greitens last year.

"These results show the race in Missouri starts close and moves quickly to a jump ball, that Parson is vulnerable and unknown and Galloway has a uniquely appealing cross-party appeal," Cohen, the DGA strategist, wrote.

It’s not clear exactly how much the association will do to capitalize on the situation. As of Tuesday afternoon, state records showed no contributions to Galloway’s campaign or allied political action committee, and the association generally doesn't get involved until after a candidate wins a primary.

The association spent plenty on its wins this year, though, cutting checks worth more than $6 million to PACs supporting Democratic candidates in Kentucky and Louisiana, according to state records.

The association also provided smaller amounts to former Missouri Attorney General Chris Koster in his failed run for governor in 2016.

The Galloway campaign was predictably cheery about the memo, which could be key to drawing national money and attention to the race.

“This confirms what we’ve known all along,” spokesman Eric Slusher wrote in a statement. “There is a clear path to a Galloway victory because of (Parson’s) extreme positions and record of delivering only for well-connected insiders instead of working families.”

Steele Shippy, the governor’s campaign manager, had the opposite impression in an interview.

He pointed out that every public poll to date has shown Parson with a healthy lead and said people appreciate his efforts to improve access to good-paying jobs as well as his stances against abortion and impeaching the president.

“I think the people understand and see that the governor is leading the state in the right direction,” Shippy said.