Large car bombs increasing in Syria

Jim Michaels | USA TODAY

WASHINGTON – The number of car and truck bombs used in the Syrian war has skyrocketed this year, according to U.S. military statistics, reflecting a widening of the war and the growing influence of Islamic militants in the conflict.

The number of vehicle bombs, which generally cause mass casualties and are a signature al-Qaeda weapon, has increased to 62 in the first four months of this year, up from 16 during the same period in 2012, according to the Pentagon's counter-IED agency.

The dramatic increase strongly suggests the conflict has become a magnet for jihadists and regional powers who are attempting to influence the outcome of the fight. The large bombs require components and expertise from outside the country.

Analysts say that some of the expertise and components are coming in from Iraq, where Sunni militants oppose the Shiite regime of Bashar Assad.

"What has happened over the last 10 or 12 years is that we have helped create a generation of bombmakers who are very good at what they do," said Al Sweetser, the research chief at the Pentagon's Joint IED Defeat Organization, referring to the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Most of the improvised explosives are used by rebel groups, analysts say. But Assad's regime is backed by Iran and its proxy Hezbollah, a guerrilla force that also regularly uses makeshift bombs and suicide attacks.

"The car bombs become a symbol of expertise flowing into the country that isn't homegrown," said Michael Rubin, an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute. One group of rebels fighting Assad's regime, the al-Nusra Front, is affiliated with al-Qaeda.

Still, the growing power and sophistication of the improvised explosives do not necessarily mean a growing al-Qaeda presence, some analysts say.

"Al-Qaeda doesn't own car bombs," said Joseph Holliday, a fellow at the Institute for the Study of War. He said the components and expertise are transferable to other groups.

The increasing use of all types of improvised explosives does point to a shift in tactics, as rebels increasingly rely on roadside bombs and avoid direct confrontation with Assad's conventional forces, which are equipped with superior firepower and aircraft.

The overall number of homemade bombs, which the military calls improvised explosive devices or IEDs, has increased to 246 in the first four months of this year, compared with 149 during the same period in 2012. In April, 258 people were killed or wounded by improvised explosives in Syria.

"It may be an indicator that rebels are having less success in going toe to toe with the regime," Holliday said.

"If they're resorting to suicide attacks they don't have good options," Holliday said. "In that regard it is a bad sign for the state of the rebels."

That suggests a hardening of the stalemate in Syria, where neither side can get a decisive advantage.

"Once the situation has metastasized this far … there's not going to be a quick and easy solution," Rubin said.