Wide Receiver Target Analysis Entering Week 5

The Gridiron Experts Wide Receiver Targets Analysis series takes you behind the scenes with the most advanced target information, including receiving fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE), air yards, receiver air conversion ratio (RACR), weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) and other metrics.

Adam Thielen and Antonio Brown are the only wide receivers with 50 or more targets entering Week 5. There are nine over receivers with 40 or more targets. Julio Jones (32), Corey Davis (32), Jarvis Landry (31), and DeAndre Hopkins (30) are the only receivers with team target shares over 30 percent. Jones (713), Hopkins (669), and John Brown (662) are the only receivers with 600 or more Air Yards. Cooper Kupp (1.67) currently leads all receivers with 20 or more targets in Receiver Air Conversion Ratio. RACR is an efficiency metric that rolls up catch rate and yards after the catch into one number. It can be thought of as the number of receiving yards a player creates for every air yard thrown at him. Jones (0.84) is leading the position in Weighted Opportunity Rating. WOPR is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards. Other notable wide receivers with high WOPRs entering Week 5 are Davis (0.77), Odell Beckham (0.75), and Thielen (0.73). You can find these statistics at AirYards.com.

When it comes to analyzing the WR positions targets and Air Yards per game are the most predictable statistics on a season to season basis. Fantasy points are a byproduct of a receiver’s targets. This week we will break down all of the wide receiver target leaders with 10 or more targets entering Week 5. As always I will provide a brief analysis of one to two players per tier.

Rk Name Team GM TAR REC YDS PPR 1 Adam Thielen MIN 4 56 40 473 99.3 2 Antonio Brown PIT 4 53 29 272 74.2

Adam Thielen is currently the WR2 in PPR formats, has the second most receptions, the second most receiving, and is averaging 130 Air Yards per game. He also has positive receiving fantasy points over expectation which suggests Thielen is outperforming his target volume.

Rk Name Team GM TAR REC YDS PPR 3 Juju Smith-Schuster PIT 4 49 31 416 78.6 4 Jarvis Landry CLE 4 47 24 312 63.2 5 Julio Jones ATL 4 46 29 502 80.3 6 Odell Beckham Jr NYG 4 45 31 331 65 7 Michael Thomas NO 4 44 42 445 101 7 Golden Tate DET 4 44 28 389 85.8 7 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 4 44 30 443 85.6 7 Stefon Diggs MIN 4 44 27 311 79 11 Davante Adams GB 4 43 28 285 74.5

Michael Thomas, like Thielen, is another receiver outperforming his average draft position. He is the WR1 in PPR formats, receptions leader, has a catch rate of 96 percent, ranked fourth in receiving yards, and has the second most targets in the red zone. Thomas is averaging an insane 6.6 receiving fantasy points over expectation.

Rk Name Team GM TAR REC YDS PPR 12 Mike Evans TB 4 39 29 426 87.6 12 Corey Davis TEN 4 39 22 312 59.2 12 Nelson Agholor PHI 4 39 25 167 50.1 15 T.Y. Hilton IND 4 38 21 294 62.4 16 Quincy Enunwa NYJ 4 37 21 278 54.8

Corey Davis is someone I have been championing for the last few weeks due to his target share and Air Yards per game. It was great to see him go boom statistically in Week 4.

Mike Evans has quietly put together one of his most efficient starts to a season in his career. He is averaging 7.3 receiving fantasy points over expectation. Evans comes out of the bye week with very favorable matchups against the Falcons, Browns, and Bengals. All three of these team defenses rank near the bottom of the league in passing yards allowed per game.

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Rk Name Team GM TAR REC YDS PPR 17 Tyler Boyd CIN 4 36 26 349 73.4 17 Keenan Allen LAC 4 36 24 282 56.2 19 Robert Woods LAR 4 34 24 323 76.2 19 Michael Crabtree BAL 4 34 18 184 42.4 21 AJ Green CIN 4 33 20 297 77.7 21 Brandin Cooks LAR 4 33 26 452 78.8 21 Demaryius Thomas DEN 4 33 20 168 42.8 24 Cooper Kupp LAR 4 32 24 348 84.1 24 Tyreek Hill KC 4 32 23 364 78.5 24 Kenny Golladay DET 4 32 23 330 68 24 Allen Robinson CHI 4 32 19 217 46.7 28 John Brown BAL 4 30 15 338 67.2 28 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 4 30 24 314 72.7 28 Amari Cooper OAK 4 30 21 270 54.9

The season-ending injury to Tyler Eifert will allow Tyler Boyd to see some additional targets. He has a favorable matchup this week against the Dolphins defense.

John Brown is not too far behind Michael Crabtree in targets but has nearly doubled his Air Yards. He is the Ravens receiver to have on your roster from a fantasy football perspective.

Rk Name Team GM TAR REC YDS PPR 31 Geronimo Allison GB 4 29 19 289 59.9 31 Sterling Shepard NYG 4 29 24 229 60.9 31 Marvin Jones DET 4 29 15 233 50.3 31 Taylor Gabriel CHI 4 29 22 193 56 35 Dede Westbrook JAX 4 28 21 294 54.9 36 Randall Cobb GB 3 27 17 194 40.4 37 Phillip Dorsett NE 4 26 16 165 44.5 37 Willie Snead BAL 4 26 18 198 43.8 39 Will Fuller HOU 3 25 17 263 61.3 40 Jordy Nelson OAK 4 24 16 274 57.4 40 Keelan Cole JAX 4 24 17 225 45.5 40 Mohamed Sanu ATL 4 24 16 184 42 40 Antonio Callaway CLE 4 24 10 155 32.2 40 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 4 24 15 141 29.1 45 Tyler Lockett SEA 4 23 17 249 60.4

Antonio Callaway (387) has the second highest number of Air Yards on the Browns behind Jarvis Landry (492). He is averaging 9.5 targets over the last two games. Callaway is in a great position to go boom once he builds rapport with Baker Mayfield.

Rk Name Team GM TAR REC YDS PPR 46 DeSean Jackson TB 4 22 17 424 77.4 46 Chris Godwin TB 4 22 15 193 50.3 46 Ted Ginn NO 4 22 12 135 40.1 46 Donte Moncrief JAX 4 22 12 173 39.3 46 Ryan Grant IND 4 22 18 188 42.8 51 Calvin Ridley ATL 4 21 15 264 78.7 51 Sammy Watkins KC 4 21 14 176 42.7 51 Devin Funchess CAR 3 21 14 185 38.5 51 Brandon Marshall SEA 4 21 10 125 28.5 51 Cole Beasley DAL 4 21 16 185 34.5 51 Laquon Treadwell MIN 4 21 12 121 30.1 51 Chester Rogers IND 4 21 16 134 31.4 51 Kelvin Benjamin BUF 4 21 7 92 22.2 51 Pierre Garcon SF 4 21 11 141 25.1 60 Christian Kirk ARI 4 20 16 149 31.6 60 Courtland Sutton DEN 4 20 8 142 22.2

DeSean Jackson is only averaging 5.5 targets per game, but has a catch rate of 77 percent. He should still be viewed as a boom or bust receiver.

If Courtland Sutton happens to be available in your fantasy league he is someone I recommend you stash. He only has three fewer targets than Demaryius Thomas and has more Air Yards over the last two weeks. Sutton could see some additional opportunities the second half of the season if Thomas continues to struggle.

Rk Name Team GM TAR REC YDS PPR 62 Kenny Stills MIA 4 19 12 224 52.4 62 Taywan Taylor TEN 4 19 14 139 33.9 62 Rashard Higgins CLE 4 19 13 178 30.8 62 Adam Humphries TB 4 19 13 101 23.5 66 Mike Williams LAC 4 18 12 204 50.4 67 Albert Wilson MIA 4 17 12 161 47.9 67 Zay Jones BUF 4 17 10 144 24.4

Mike Williams is another receiver to stash as an upside WR3 if he happens to be available. The Chargers used No. 7 overall pick on him back in the 2017 NFL Draft. Williams is finally healthy and provided fantasy players a taste of what he can bring to the table from a statistical perspective in Week 3. He currently leads the Chargers in Air Yards with 301.

Rk Name Team GM TAR REC YDS PPR 69 Jakeem Grant MIA 4 16 11 152 38.7 69 Tyrell Williams LAC 4 16 10 126 30 69 Danny Amendola MIA 4 16 13 121 25.1 69 Robby Anderson NYJ 4 16 8 108 19.9 69 Martavis Bryant OAK 3 16 9 111 20.5 74 Chris Hogan NE 4 15 8 109 30.9 74 John Ross CIN 4 15 7 79 26.6 74 Terrelle Pryor NYJ 4 15 8 158 23.8 74 Torrey Smith CAR 3 15 7 67 19.7 74 Keke Coutee HOU 1 15 11 109 21.7 74 Trent Taylor SF 4 15 9 64 15.4 80 Paul Richardson WAS 3 14 9 131 28.1 80 Allen Hurns DAL 4 14 7 81 15.1

Success or failure for Keke Coutee comes down to the health of Will Fuller. He was heavily targeted in his rookie debut in Week 4, but Coutee had a depth of target or aDOT of only 3.4 yards. A high number of his touches were manufactured. It remains to be seen how Coutee vertical game translates to the NFL.

Rk Name Team GM TAR REC YDS PPR 82 Jarius Wright CAR 3 13 9 92 24.2 82 Zach Pascal IND 4 13 8 77 21.7 82 Ryan Switzer PIT 4 13 11 55 23.9 82 Chad Williams ARI 4 13 2 30 11 82 Jermaine Kearse NYJ 3 13 6 57 11.7 82 Josh Doctson WAS 3 13 5 48 9.8 88 Cordarrelle Patterson NE 4 12 8 90 25.9 88 Jamison Crowder WAS 3 12 9 79 26.4 88 Chris Conley KC 4 12 9 58 24.8 88 Bruce Ellington HOU 3 12 8 92 23.2 88 Deonte Thompson DAL 4 12 9 83 17.3 88 Michael Gallup DAL 4 12 5 76 12.6 88 Andre Holmes BUF 4 12 6 51 11.1 95 Anthony Miller CHI 3 11 8 60 20 95 James Washington PIT 4 11 5 49 15.9

Jamison Crowder is one of my favorite buy lows at the wide receiver position coming out of the Redskins bye week. He has a mouthwatering matchup against the Saints defense on Monday Night Football.

Secondary wide receivers vs #Saints this year: Chris Godwin- 3-41-1

DeSean Jackson- 5-146-2

Antonio Callaway- 3-81-1

Calvin Ridley- 7-146-3

Sterling Shepard- 10-77-1 Jamison Crowder on Monday night? — Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) October 2, 2018

WHAT COMES NEXT?

This column will be published every week to help you make decisions for the upcoming matchup. I am very active on Twitter (@EricNMoody) and happy to answer any questions our readers have. I also encourage you to put specific questions in the comments for each week’s article. What was most useful to you after reading this column?

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