Republicans fear a McAuliffe victory over Cuccinelli could mean a Democratic sweep. What to watch in Virginia

CULPEPER, Va. — Turnout in tonight’s Virginia governor’s election between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Ken Cuccinelli will unquestionably be a lot lower than in last year’s presidential election.

The question is how low it will go.


More than 70 percent of eligible voters cast ballots in 2012; about two in five are expected to do so on Tuesday. If turnout drops substantially below the 40 percent mark – if all the nasty attack ads about legitimately flawed candidates leave a chunk of voters so depressed they decide to stay home or vote for the libertarian – we could be in for a more suspenseful election night than most are expecting.

( PHOTOS: Election Day 2013)

With that in mind, here are the key things to watch as exit polling and returns come in.

Does McAuliffe have coattails?

Cuccinelli’s weakness at the top of the ticket has heightened GOP fears of a Democratic sweep.

Republican attorney general candidate Mark Obenshain is outperforming his running mates by a few points—trailing slightly but still in the hunt. But strategists agree he will almost certainly get wiped out if Cuccinelli loses by six points or more. Democrats say it’s even possible that they could oust Del. Bob Marshall, the social conservative responsible for many of the legislative controversies that have dogged Cuccinelli in Northern Virginia.

( PHOTOS: Terry McAuliffe’s career)

Democrats would then hold all three top statewide offices—governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general—as well as both U.S. Senate seats for the first time since 1969. Party strategists think they might be able to pick up as many as five state legislative seats if it’s a really good night.

The outer exurbs of Northern Virginia are a good place to see if a tidal wave is in the making. Cuccinelli will get crushed in the inner D.C. suburbs of Fairfax, Arlington and Alexandria, but he thinks he can hold his own in the outer suburbs of Loudoun and Prince William County.

Loudoun was long Republican, but it’s become much more competitive. McDonnell won the county, which includes Leesburg, by 22 points in 2009, but Obama carried it by 4.5 percent last year. The Democratic nominee for attorney general, Mark Herring, happens to represent the county in the state legislature.

( PHOTOS: Ken Cuccinelli’s career)

Also watch Republican-leaning Chesapeake, a suburb of Norfolk on the coast. Obama got exactly 50 percent of the vote there last year after McDonnell won by 20 points. If Cuccinelli loses there, it’s going to be a blow out.

Will black voters show up without Obama on the ballot?

Some African-American leaders have expressed concern that black voters will stay home. If they do, the race will be much closer than the polls suggest.

Blacks came out at a higher rate than whites last year, but their participation historically drops off at greater levels in off-year elections than is the case with other demographic groups. African Americans made up a fifth of the electorate last year but only 16 percent in 2009, according to exit polls. Since they vote almost monolithically Democratic, that’s a very big difference.

( SEE RESULTS: 2013 Virginia governor’s race)

The McAuliffe campaign has built a huge portion of its field program around mobilizing black voters. Former President Bill Clinton went into an overwhelmingly black section of Richmond to make an explicit pitch for the community to turn out, and Obama was only a little more subtle Sunday.

Democrats hope to overperform among whites so that they’re not as dependent on black turnout. Obama lost Virginia whites by 24 points last year, and the 2009 Democratic nominee lost by 35 points. McAuliffe’s campaign aims to lose whites by no more than 12 percent, aides say.

Is Sarvis a spoiler?

Libertarian Robert Sarvis, who ran for state Senate as a Republican in 2011, has pulled double digits in some polls largely by attacking Cuccinelli over his views on social issues like gay marriage.

( Also on POLITICO: PPP: Terry McAuliffe up by 7 points)

His strong performance prompted Cuccinelli to attack Sarvis’s libertarian bona fides in recent weeks and talk up his own. The Republican fears Sarvis enough that his final rally Monday was with former congressman Ron Paul, who ran for president three times as a lower-case-L libertarian. That’s in addition to three events with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) last week.

A lot of people who tell pollsters they back Sarvis will probably stay home rather than vote for a candidate who has no shot of winning. But Cuccinelli hopes a bulk of them break his way out of a desire to beat McAuliffe.

Internal McAuliffe forecasts show the first 5 percent for Sarvis probably comes evenly from McAuliffe and Cuccinelli, but anything above that threshold comes two-to-one from the Republicans. Monday’s Quinnipiac poll found Cuccinelli winning 85 percent of self-identified Republicans, while McAuliffe wins 93 percent of Democrats.

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How big is the gender gap?

McAuliffe is outspending Cuccinelli 10-to-1 on TV in the final days. His ads have suggested the Republican would outlaw common forms of birth control, toughen the requirements to get divorced and make it nearly impossible to get an abortion. Cuccinelli says these claims are ridiculous, but he chose not to spend what precious resources he had on defense.

Obama won Virginia by four points last year, with a 9 point lead among women. In 2009, Bob McDonnell got hammered for a 1989 master’s thesis that described working women as “detrimental” to the family. But the Republican still carried women by 8 points on the way to 17-point overall victory.

A Washington Post poll last week showed McAuliffe ahead among women by 24 points (and leading overall by 12 points). A Quinnipiac poll published Monday showed McAuliffe up 14 points among women and 6 points overall.

An unmarried woman shopping recently at Trader Joe’s in Centreville, part of Cuccinelli’s old state Senate district, revealed the extent of his problems. Stevie McCauley, a high school guidance counselor, voted for John McCain and Mitt Romney, but she supports McAuliffe. “It’s choice, it’s gay rights, it’s birth control,” she said. “In general, I try to stay away from people who tell me what to do.” Other women interviewed outside the store said they don’t normally vote in off-year elections, but they will this year to vote against Cuccinelli.

Will McAuliffe make inroads in Southwest Virginia?

Cuccinelli will win this conservative swath of the state, but will he get anywhere close to the 69 percent of the vote that McDonnell received four years ago?

Democrats have invested heavily on television to try to sap Cuccinelli’s strength. They have made hay of revelations that an assistant attorney general in Cuccinelli’s office advised out-of-state energy companies involved in a lawsuit with local landowners over gas royalties. An inspector general ruled the help inappropriate, and ads have noted that one of the companies subsequently gave more than $100,000 to Cuccinelli’s campaign.

Cuccinelli was not aware of the attorney’s actions, but voters may not make that distinction.

Working in the Republican’s favor, though, are coal and guns. McAuliffe embraced Obama’s new Environmental Protection Agency rules, which many rural Virginians see as a “war on coal.” Trying to run up his margin in Northern Virginia, he’s also begun bragging about his “F” rating from the National Rifle Association. Guns are a very important part of the local culture.

Does Cuccinelli’s grass roots army deploy?

Cuccinelli believes he has a very devoted base, mainly of religious conservatives, whose energy is not registering in public polling.

The Republican is an activist at heart, most comfortable on the right and with tea party crowds, and he’s spent the final weeks of the race working hard to get them motivated.

He got loud cheers in Warrenton Monday when he talked about being a “home school family” while introducing his wife. On Saturday, he urged everyone at his rallies to get to church early and stay late to try persuading all of their friends.

Cuccinelli regularly claims that the state party has made more voter contacts in 2013 than it did during the presidential campaign in 2012.

“Below the radar, very quietly, we’ve been pushing very hard and those contacts have been made,” Cuccinelli said. “Is it enough? We’ll find out Tuesday night.”

There are not enough base voters to get a candidate over the top in a purple state during a normal election. But Cuccinelli believes many McAuliffe voters will stay home because they don’t love their guy the way many of his boosters love him. The Quinnipiac poll found that 54 percent of Cuccinelli backers strongly favor him, compared to 39 percent for McAuliffe.

A good indicator will be if Cuccinelli can post large Republican numbers in the suburban counties outside Richmond, Henrico and Chesterfield.

Do independents punish Cuccinelli for the shutdown or McAuliffe for Obamacare?

Both campaigns have tried to nationalize the race in the closing days, on different issues.

Obama and McAuliffe have linked Cuccinelli to congressional Republicans and the federal government shutdown, which disproportionately hurt Virginia. Democrats have tried to make a bogeyman of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) to motivate their voters and bring independents into the fold.

Cuccinelli has linked McAuliffe to Obama and the botched Obamacare rollout. He devoted most of his stump speech the last few days to the health care law, noting that he opposes a Medicaid expansion while McAuliffe supported a public option.

The Quinnipiac poll out Monday showed the candidates tied at 40 percent among independents, with 14 percent for Sarvis.

Cuccinelli predicts that Obamacare will wind up trumping the shutdown in part because it is fresher in the minds of voters. Asked after a rally here in Culpeper what returns he will watch most closely from his boiler room in Richmond, he said the areas he represented in the state Senate and where he lives now.

“I watch my home areas where I know the precincts,” he said. “The people in Northern Virginia tend to be more Washington focused, and that’s where Obamacare comes from. So there is a lot of focus, maybe even more up there than in some other areas, on the impacts this is having.”

Alexander Burns contributed to this report.