New polling from NBC/Marist and The Atlanta Journal-Constitution mixed things up in our Senate model, with our forecasts in Arkansas and Georgia moving in a Democratic direction. The national outcome remains a coin flip, although the new data tipped our forecast from a 54 percent chance that the Republicans will take the Senate this fall to a slightly better than even chance (52 percent) that the Democrats will stay in power.

Ever since our model, called Leo, debuted, we’ve considered Georgia to be the best opportunity for the Democrats to pick up a Republican seat, and over the past several weeks, it has been looking like less of a long shot. Our Senate model now classifies the race as a tossup, giving the Democratic candidate, Michelle Nunn, a 43 percent chance of capturing the seat in November. But this is highly contingent on which Republican emerges from the primary next Tuesday.