



Climate change is going to drastically alter Canada’s weather patterns regardless of how quickly global carbon emissions are cut, according to new climatology maps published by the Prairie Climate Centre.

The Climate Centre’s models show two possible outcomes, one depicting a low carbon scenario, where the international community immediately takes steps to tackle climate change, and a high carbon scenario, which is currently the path the planet is currently on. The centre based its projections off seeing how closely historical projections mirrored the climate records that were eventually recorded.

Climate change means most Canadians will experience significantly warmer and wetter winters by 2080, and significantly drier and hotter summers. While some may welcome a warmer climate, the drastic temperature increase will be damaging to Canada’s ecosystems and will be felt even in its big cities. And it won’t warm up significantly enough to keep snowbirds from making their annual migration to Florida and the Caribbean.

View photos Projected temperature changes for Canada between 2051-2080. Graphic from the Prairie Climate Centre More

The Arctic, in particular, will warm up at a faster rate than the rest of Canada. “If you remove snow and sea ice, you get sunlight, instead of bouncing back into space, sticking around and continuing to warm the climate,” says Ryan Smith, a climate change researcher at the Prairie Climate Centre.

But it will still be unbelievably cold there. “It’s -50 in the Arctic in the winter, so 12 degrees warmer is still around -35. It’s still quite cold, just quite a bit less cold than it would be otherwise,” he says.

Major cities like Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Calgary and Edmonton could be looking at a Christmas season 4-6 degrees Celsius warmer than today.

View photos Spring season rainfall is expected to increase across most of Canada. Graphic from the Prairie Climate Centre More

When it comes to the colder seasons that dominate Canada’s climate, southern Canada is expected to receive higher levels of precipitation during the fall, winter and spring which means there will be repeats of the floods hit that Ontario and Quebec this year.

But come summer, major forest fires look like they will be an annual event in western Canada. High carbon modelling shows that most of B.C. will experience drops in precipitation of at least five per cent during August. The southern third of the province is looking at a drop of more than 20 per cent. Southern Alberta also faces the same dry future. The dryness won’t be as noticeable in the rest of the provinces, although many still face drops in precipitation of up to 10 per cent.

View photos Rainfall in the west could to drop by up to 20 per cent, according to the projections. Graphic from the Prairie Climate Institute More

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