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In the EKOS poll for iPolitics, the Liberals have a substantial lead in likely voters, 41.2% to 33.2%, due to a late change in the pollster’s voting model.

“While looking at our likely voter model, we felt that we might not be giving enough weight to the role of education or age in shaping turnout,” wrote EKOS president Frank Graves on iPolitics, noting that the Liberals have a educated base that is more likely to vote.

The NDP only has the support of 17.1% of likely voters, according to EKOS.

Ipsos Reid says the Greater Toronto Area will be the election battleground.

As of Wednesday, Ontarians are still split on which party they think will win on election day. Half think the Liberals will win, while the other half are divided on whether the PCs or NDP will win.

Nearly 90% of Liberal supporters think their party will win, possibly suggesting that Liberal voters may be complacent. Meanwhile, only 77% of Tories this they will win, which could mean supporters are more motivated to get out and vote.

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Four in ten Ontarians believe NDP Leader Andrea Horwath would make the best premier. She was declared the most likeable leader in a previous Ipsos Reid poll.

According to the EKOS poll of 1,332 eligible voters over three days, their data puts the Liberals near majority territory.

Majority territory is also where Forum Research finds the Liberals. Their most recent survey (released June 10) has the Liberals at 42%, the Tories at 35% and the NDP at 19%.

Forum says their data suggests the Liberals could take 61 seats in the 107-seat legislature, compared to 35 for the PCs and 11 for the NDP. In the 2011 election, the Liberals won 53, the PCs took 37 and the NDP, 17.

According to Threehundredeight.com, a poll aggregator, the Liberals only hold a 1-point lead over the PCs, 37.3% to 36.5%.

However, Threehundredeight.com suggests a weak NDP turnout, even with near tie between Hudak and Wynne’s parties, could result in a Liberal majority.