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When Finance Minister Joe Ceci unveiled the provincial budget in April, crude oil prices had just crawled back from the dark, subterranean depths of below US$30 a barrel.

It was a bleak economic period. Hundreds of pink slips were going out on a weekly basis across Alberta.

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The province predicted benchmark oil prices would average $42 for the year, but felt so uncertain about the situation — or wanting protection from the downside — the government built a new “risk adjustment” factor into its $51-billion budget.

Ceci lowered his revenue projections by $700 million, based on an even lower oil price expectation: $36 a barrel.

Six months later, job losses are still occurring. The provincial unemployment rate rose to 8.5 per cent last month and Alberta remains in recession.

Benchmark oil prices, however, have climbed above US$50 a barrel. A tentative deal by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has given hope the fragile market is recalibrating.