by Vince Verhei

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton only threw for 171 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, but that was all he needed to set his latest benchmark. Newton now has 3,893 passing yards this season, breaking Peyton Manning's rookie record of 3,739 set in 1998. Newton also has 14 rushing touchdowns, the most for any quarterback in a single season, rookie or otherwise. Have we ever seen anyone - or anything - like this?

Frankly, no. At Football Outsiders, we use similarity scores to find historical matches for contemporary players. (Similarity scores were invented by baseball analyst Bill James and have since been used by many other statisticians for many other sports.) Our formula uses not just on-field performance, but also factors like size, age, and experience in an attempt to predict each player's future.

Newton essentially breaks our similarity score system. He's on pace for 719 rushing yards. The only quarterbacks who have rushed for more than 700 yards since the merger are Michael Vick, Bobby Douglass, and Randall Cunningham. (Vick has done it three times, and can make it a fourth with 114 yards against Washington next week. Tim Tebow needs 56 yards against Kansas City to join the club.) The system doesn't know to do with all that ground yardage, and tries to match Newton up with occasional scramblers like Mark Brunell and Don Majkowski.

Newton's rushing ability is no fluke, and at 6-foot-5 and 248 pounds, there's no reason to expect his numbers on the ground to dissipate anytime soon. To get a better picture of his performance, let's separate his passing stats from his rushing stats. Since we can't find anyone who could run and throw like Newton, let's start with players who threw like him, then look for those who ran like him.

Projecting Newton's stats over 16 games gives us 315 completions, 525 attempts, 4,153 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, all at the tender age of 22. Here are the 10 quarterback seasons most similar to that since 1978:

Top 10 QBs similar to Cam Newton, passing only Name Year Team G Cmp Att Yds TD INT AGE Peyton Manning 1999 IND 16 331 533 4135 26 15 23 Bernie Kosar* 1987 CLE1 16 321 519 4044 29 12 24 Daunte Culpepper 2000 MIN 16 297 474 3937 33 16 23 Jim Everett 1988 LARM 16 308 517 3964 31 18 25 Ken O'Brien 1985 NYJ 16 297 488 3888 25 8 25 Aaron Rodgers 2008 GB 16 341 536 4038 28 13 25 Dan Marino 1985 MIA 16 336 567 4137 30 21 24 Bernie Kosar 1986 CLE1 16 310 531 3854 17 10 23 Carson Palmer 2006 CIN 16 324 520 4035 28 13 27 Peyton Manning 2001 IND 16 343 547 4131 26 23 25 * Strike year. Stats projected to 16-game schedule

Man, that's a good group of passers. Marino's in the Hall of Fame, Manning is on his way, and Rodgers looks destined to join them. Newton's numbers right now look like what those guys were going in their second, third, and fourth seasons. Daunte Culpepper (remember, this is looking at passing stats only) and Carson Palmer were two of the league's hottest young stars before injuries derailed their careers. And then we have a bunch of guys from the 1980s. That could be a reflection of Newton's strong arm and longball style, which is rare in today's NFL. He's presently averaging 13.2 yards per completion. That would be one of the top 20 rates this century, but it would barely make the top 100 rates of the 1980s.

And Newton, the rusher? He's projected to hit 128 carries for 719 yards and 15 touchdowns. Here are the running backs most similar to that since 1978 (not counting receiving stats):

Top 10 RBs similar to Cam Newton, rushing only Name Year Team G Rush RuYd RuTD AGE Marion Barber 2006 DAL 16 135 654 14 23 Herschel Walker 1986 DAL 16 151 737 12 24 Maurice Jones-Drew 2006 JAC 16 166 941 13 21 Brian Westbrook 2003 PHI 15 117 613 7 24 Ickey Woods 1988 CIN 16 203 1066 15 22 Pierre Thomas 2008 NO 15 129 625 9 24 Chris Ivory 2010 NO 12 137 716 5 22 Brad Muster 1990 CHI 16 141 664 6 25 Blair Thomas 1990 NYJ 15 123 620 1 23 Selvin Young 2007 DEN 15 140 729 1 24

Even restricting our list to running backs, it's hard to find players who have posted seasons like Newton. The touchdown totals start to drop pretty quickly. It's worth noting that Newton's four closest matches started their careers as parts of committees, but would go on to become not just feature tailbacks, but Pro Bowlers. That's the kind of ground game Newton brings to the table.

In short, it's fair to say that Cam Newton has played like a young Peyton Manning and a rookie Herschel Walker all rolled into one. Any questions about who the rookie of the year should be?

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 1. Aaron Rodgers GB 21/29 283 5 0 247 247 0 Rodgers had an off day in a Week 14 win over Oakland, then followed with his worst game of the year in the Week 15 loss to Kansas City. It looked like the start of a bad pattern, but Rodgers rebounded with his best game of the year against Chicago on Christmas night. What's amazing is that at one point in the second quarter, Rodgers was 10-of-14 for just 86 yards, with only four first downs (including one touchdown). From that point on, he was 11-of-15 for 197 yards, with every completion gaining a first down (including four touchdowns). 2. Matt Stafford DET 29/36 373 3 0 236 235 1 Stafford did not throw back-to-back incompletions against San Diego (although he did go sack-incomplete on back-to-back plays in the third quarter). Meanwhile, he had three separate stretches of five or more completions in a row. He also went 6-of-10 on deep passes (more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage) for 168 yards. 3. Drew Brees NO 23/38 307 4 2 150 149 2 Brees now leads Aaron Rodgers by 52 DYAR and Tom Brady by 160 DYAR as the MVP race comes down to the wire. More on this in the DVOA commentary later today. 4. Michael Vick PHI 19/31 293 2 0 131 134 -3 Second quarter: 7-of-8 for 133 yards and six first downs, including a 5-yard touchdown. 5. Tom Brady NE 27/46 304 1 0 130 105 25 As we discussed in Audibles, something changed drastically for Brady between the first half (7-of-19 for 87 yards with three sacks, -32 DYAR) and the second (20-for-27 for 217 yards and a touchdown, with no sacks, 137 DYAR). 6. Cam Newton CAR 12/17 171 3 0 106 93 13 Newton is penalized somewhat for throwing only 17 passes and running only six times. In terms of total DYAR per total play, he would have ranked third this week behind Rodgers and Stafford. In 23 plays, he produced 236 yards and eight first downs. Remember that when we get to Mark Sanchez. 7. Matt Ryan ATL 35/52 373 1 0 103 100 2 8. Dan Orlovsky IND 23/40 244 1 0 94 97 -3 What a weird day on third down. Six or fewer yards to go: three conversions in ten plays. Eight or more yards to go: Five conversions in six plays. 9. Josh McCown CHI 19/28 242 1 2 77 71 6 McCown's last start came four years ago almost to the day, on December 23, 2007, for the Oakland Raiders, in a 49-11 loss to Jacksonville. The Raiders opted to let McCown go after the season and stick with JaMarcus Russell. Two years later, the Panthers let McCown go so they could stick with Jimmy Clausen. Not surprisingly, the guy who couldn't beat out Russell and Clausen had no other takers, and he spent 2010 out of the NFL. The desperate Bears called him a few weeks ago, and McCown left his high school coaching job to put the helmet on one more time. Expectations were low, but McCown managed to not humiliate himself against Green Bay, although he did some stats padding in the fourth quarter, when the Bears were down by multiple scores. He went 11-of-14 (including ten in a row at one point) for 107 yards in the fourth. 10. Matt Hasselbeck TEN 24/40 350 1 2 75 72 3 Hasselbeck had trouble hooking up with Nate Washington. He was just 4-of-11 throwing to Washington this week for 71 yards, with both of his interceptions. Washington has been the target on five of Hasselbeck's 14 interceptions this year. 11. Joe Flacco BAL 11/24 132 2 1 61 48 13 Third-down passing: 7-of-13 for 115 yards, with six first downs and two touchdowns. 12. Charlie Batch PIT 15/22 208 0 1 57 57 0 Batch on passes at or behind the line of scrimmage: 6-of-7 for 24 yards, no first downs, only two successful plays. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 13. Philip Rivers SD 28/53 299 1 2 54 54 0 Rivers threw seven red zone passes against Detroit. The first was an 11-yard touchdown to Malcolm Floyd. The next six, all thrown inside the 5, were all incomplete. 14. Andy Dalton CIN 18/31 154 2 0 46 32 14 Second half: 3-of-9 for 18 yards, one first down, plus a sack. That is how you turn a 20-point halftime lead into a seven-point win. 15. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 15/27 196 0 0 45 29 16 Red zone passing: 3-of-9 for 11 yards, no first downs, plus a sack. And yet the Bills won by 26. 16. Seneca Wallace CLE 19/33 147 1 1 43 46 -4 In the first three quarters, Wallace had 26 passing plays for 109 yards and six first downs (plus an interception). In the fourth quarter, he had 11 plays for six first downs and 66 yards, including a touchdown. 17. Tarvaris Jackson SEA 15/27 163 1 0 39 60 -21 First five plays: 14.8 yards apiece, three first downs, including a touchdown. Rest of the day: 26 plays, 6.5 yards each, five first downs, three sacks. He also lost a fumble as a rusher. 18. Kyle Orton KC 23/36 300 1 2 36 41 -5 Orton completed seven of his last eight passes, each while driving for a potential tying or go-ahead score. They totaled 116 yards and netted six first downs, including a game-tying touchdown to Dwayne Bowe. 19. Josh Freeman TB 28/38 274 1 1 35 35 -1 Freeman's second half was incredibly streaky. First 15 plays: 74 yards, no first downs. Next seven plays: 95 yards, six first downs. Last five plays: 12 yards, no first downs. 20. Stephen McGee DAL 24/38 182 1 0 33 25 8 McGee didn't start, but he did lead all quarterbacks this week with 11 failed completions. 21. Chris Redman ATL 6/9 61 0 0 30 30 0 22. Carson Palmer OAK 16/26 237 1 2 30 30 0 Somewhere, Al Davis watched this game and smiled. Not only did the Raiders beat the Chiefs, but they did it an old school, Daryle Lamonica, long bomb way. Palmer went 3-of-6 for 134 yards on deep balls, but just 13-of-20 for 103 yards (plus two interceptions) on the short stuff. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 23. Christian Ponder MIN 8/13 68 0 0 22 17 5 Incredible streakiness, continued. First six plays: 14 yards, no first downs. Next four plays: 38 yards, four first downs. Last four plays: 15 yards, no first downs. 24. Alex Smith SF 14/26 179 0 0 22 31 -8 First half: 6-of-15, 43 yards, two first downs, one sack. Second half: 8-of-11, 136 yards, six first downs, one sack. Did you know that Smith and Eli Manning are tied with Tim Tebow for most fourth-quarter comebacks this year? 25. Matt Moore MIA 17/33 294 3 1 14 14 0 Moore threw 14 deep passes against New England, the most of any player this week, and Reggie Bush threw another. Moore went 5-of-13 for 172 yards, plus an 18-yard DPI. Bush also drew a 17-yard DPI. 26. Rex Grossman WAS 26/40 284 2 1 12 12 0 Third downs: 4-of-10 for 67 yards, only three first downs. Five of his failures came with eight or fewer yards to go, but all three conversions came with nine or more yards to go. 27. Eli Manning NYG 10/27 225 1 1 -12 -12 0 Including DPI calls, Manning has completed 67 of 152 deep balls for 1,974 yards this season, leading the league in all three categories. Against the Jets, he went 1-of-8 for 36 yards on deep balls. 28. T.J. Yates HOU 13/16 132 0 0 -50 -50 0 First half: 5-of-7 for 45 yards (29 of them on one play), one first down, plus two sacks and a lost fumble. Yet somehow the Texans were ahead and halftime and went on to lose. 29. Mark Sanchez NYJ 30/59 258 1 2 -56 -45 -11 In 63 plays, Sanchez produced 271 yards and 14 first downs. Second half: 12-of-31 for 113 yards, only three first downs, four sacks, two interceptions. 30. Kellen Clemens STL 9/24 91 0 0 -61 -47 -14 In 24 plays, Clemens had four first downs. Those four plays totaled 53 yards. This week alone, there were eight different passing plays that went for 53 yards or more. Meanwhile, when Clemens wasn't picking up first downs, he was averaging 1.9 yards on his other 20 plays, including three sacks. 31. Blaine Gabbert JAC 21/42 198 0 1 -90 -91 0 In the first quarter, Blaine Gabbert — Blaine Gabbert! — went 5-of-5 for 68 yards and four first downs. Then he turned back into Blaine Gabbert, finishing up 16-of-37 for 130 yards and eight first downs. 32. John Skelton ARI 23/43 297 2 3 -138 -141 3 Skelton put together this amazing stretch starting in the first quarter and ending in the third: 5-of-14 passing for 49 yards, one first down, with three interceptions and four sacks. And yet the Cards had a chance to win in the fourth. 33. Tim Tebow DEN 13/30 185 1 4 -173 -171 -3 The Broncos never gave Tebow much of a chance against Buffalo. He only had seven plays in the first half, when the game was close. Meanwhile, Willis McGahee, Jeremiah Johnson, and Lance Ball collected 18 carries between them. That led to a 17-7 halftime deficit, and only then, when Buffalo knew Denver had to pass, did Tebow get to drop back regularly. Still there's never a good excuse for four interceptions and a fumble in one half, especially against a lousy defense like the Bills. You can see the ugly totals for yourselves, and that doesn't include Tebow's three sacks. He also ran nine times for 35 yards and four first downs (including a touchdown).

Five most valuable running backs Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Marshawn Lynch SEA 107 1 24 0 71 63 8 Following a Seattle blocked punt in the second half, Lynch became the first player this season to score a rushing touchdown against the 49ers. That score was mainly a result of special teams, but Lynch did plenty of his own damage on the ground. He wasn't stuffed once in 21 carries, and he gained 4 or more yards 11 times. Over the course of the season, the 49ers have allowed runners to gain 4-plus yards on only 40 percent of all runs, the third-lowest rate in the league. Lynch also caught both of the passes thrown his way for 24 yards. 2. DeAngelo Williams CAR 66 2 18 0 59 42 17 Williams was nearly the most valuable running back of the week, and he only touched the ball nine times. His seven carries (all on first down) produced four first downs (including two touchdowns) and runs of 14, 18, and 22 yards. He also caught both of the passes thrown his way for a pair of second-down conversions. 3. Evan Royster WAS 132 0 15 0 55 61 -6 A sixth-round draft pick out of Penn State, Royster didn't play this year until after Thanksgiving, and totaled only 17 carries for 83 yards in his first four games. He ran 19 times for 132 yards against Minnesota, with remarkable efficiency. He wasn't stuffed even one time. He had seven first downs and 12 runs of 4 yards or more, including gains of 11, 16, and 28 yards. 4. Rashard Mendenhall PIT 116 1 35 0 54 33 21 Mendenhall's production basically comes down to three plays: a 35-yard reception in the first quarter (his only pass target of the day); a 52-yard run in the second quarter; and a 1-yard touchdown in the fourth. He was basically replacement level the rest of the way. He's also dinged heavily for playing the Rams. Without opponent adjustments, he would have been the top-ranked running back this week. 5. Darren Sproles NO 67 0 22 1 48 30 18

Least valuable running back Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Tashard Choice BUF 27 0 -8 0 -50 -13 -36 Yes, the worst passer and the worst runner this week played in the same game. Choice ran nine times for 27 yards against without picking up a single first down. His longest run was an 11-yarder on second-and-17. Otherwise, he averaged 2.0 yards per carry. The Bills also threw him five passes. Four fell incomplete. The fifth was caught for an 8-yard loss on third-and-3.

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR 1. Jared Cook TEN 8 8 169 21.1 1 78 Cook's raw numbers speak for themselves. One of his catches was a 4-yard gain on second-and-8. Each of the others gained at least 10 yards and a first down, including a 55-yard touchdown. A third-year pro, Cook didn't go over 100 yards receiving in any of his first 43 games, but he's now done it twice in a row (he had nine catches for 103 yards in the loss to Indianapolis). 2. Jordy Nelson GB 6 7 115 19.2 2 69 Nelson saw seven passes against Chicago. One was incomplete, and one was caught for no gain. The other five balls were all caught for first downs, including gains of 16, 17, and 25 yards, with touchdowns both long (55 yards) and short (2 yards). Nelson is now third in FO's season rankings of wide receivers behind Wes Welker and Calvin Johnson, despite ranking third on his own team in pass targets (behind Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley). 3. Victor Cruz NYG 3 7 164 54.7 1 54 Three catches in seven targets is not very good — unless those three catches go for 29, 99, and 36 yards. The 29-yarder converted a third-and-11. 4. Percy Harvin MIN 5 6 65 13.0 1 53 Four of Harvin's catches led to first downs, including an 8-yard touchdown. The other three gained 10, 9, and 36 yards, and two of them converted third downs. 5. Calvin Johnson DET 4 6 102 25.5 1 51 Each of Calvin's completions gained a first down. His 14-yard touchdown was his shortest catch of the day; the others went for 21, 21, and 46 yards.