Football Manager is a fantastic game, but it is fundamentally flawed as a football simulator. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not trying to criticise the game, I just feel that a machine will never be able to replicate a human’s ability to adapt and create. Yes, the best teams in Football Manager are formidable, but they lack certain tactical aspects that can not be replicated in the match engine. For example, one important aspect of Chelsea’s title-winning 3-4-3 was the ability of their wingbacks to either overlap or underlap the opposition depending on the positioning of the winger. This isn’t replicable in Football Manager, with wide players largely forced either inside or outside, depending on role rather than context.

So what does this mean in Football Manager? In one word: predictability. The bounty of analysis tools available means that it is increasingly easier to predict exactly how the opponent is going to play. Furthermore, opposition managers rarely adapt, especially in direct response to your side.

Yet teams in Football Manager are still true to life. All teams have strengths which they try to play to. They have star players (comparatively) who they try to get the most out of. Most importantly, they also have weaknesses, either individually, collectively (AI squad-building is fairly poor, with a lack of joined-up thinking) or due to mistakes made by the manager. Therefore, analysing an opponent and creating a game plan in Football Manager is quite similar to how it should be done in real life.

The example of a real-life game plan I’m going to use is actually the same match-up I will be tackling in this blog. Celtic vs Aberdeen, the 2017 Scottish cup final, and my proudest day as an Aberdeen fan. That may sound odd considering that we lost the final 2-1, to a goal in the 93rd minute, but let me explain why. Firstly, the city real gathered together around the team. The city itself, as well as lots of smaller communities in the shire, dressed up storefronts red, in support of the team. Secondly, just look at this display, devised, set up and paid for by the fans.

Thirdly, the moment Johnny Hayes put us ahead, wow, it’s those sort of moments that those who don’t follow football don’t understand. Those moments just can’t be put into words. (Ignore the fact we conceded 90 seconds later)

Finally, the performance, a tactical masterclass from McInnes. Much maligned for his negative tactics in big games, McInnes employed a man-marking system which put Celtic on the back foot for much of the game. They struggled to play from the back, their key players were denied space, and bar an Armstrong longshot, they offered very little in the first half. Towards the second half, Aberdeen began to tire, Celtic’s superior fitness showed and eventually Rogic managed to evade the tired Considine to secure Celtic’s unprecedented treble.

For more detailed analysis, read here: https://spielverlagerung.com/2017/05/31/celtic-overcome-combative-aberdeen-in-scottish-cup-final/

In my mind, when creating a game plan, the following issues need to be addressed (I’ll talk about a few more in depth later):

What result do we want? Do we want to play for a draw? Do we need to score a couple to overcome a deficit on aggregate? How can you achieve your goals when you don’t know what they are in the first place?

Do we want to play for a draw? Do we need to score a couple to overcome a deficit on aggregate? How can you achieve your goals when you don’t know what they are in the first place? What are the strengths of the opponent? How may they use these strengths? How can we combat this?

How may they use these strengths? How can we combat this? What are the weaknesses of the opponent? How can we exploit these?

How can we exploit these? How do the opposition play? How do we stop them doing this?

How do we stop them doing this? Who are the opponents key players? How can we reduce their influence on the game?

With these points in mind…

How should we defend? Sit off and restrict space? Push high?

Sit off and restrict space? Push high? How should we attack? Can we hold possession in their half? Hit them on the counter? Rely on set pieces?

Finally, and most importantly

How do we dictate the game?

Now, this doesn’t just mean possession. Look at Iceland’s draw with Argentina for example.

Looking purely at the stats, it would be easy to say that Argentina had control of the game. They registered 78% of possession, taking 27 shots, although only 7 were on target. Then how on earth can I argue that Iceland controlled the game? Iceland didn’t control the ball, they controlled the opposition. Iceland’s well-organised defence dictated what Argentina was able to do on the ball. Most of Argentina’s possession was in the midfield third, often aimlessly passing around the back, struggling to find space in dangerous positions. So while Argentina dictated possession, Iceland dictated the areas where this possession took place. Ultimately Argentina’s game plan failed, and Iceland’s worked, so in my mind, Iceland controlled the game.

Reading back it seems I’ve been very harsh on Argentina recently

Luckily, my scouting report for Celtic was a bit more detailed

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That’s a lot of strengths. Basically Celtic are far superior on the ball, and when lost are stronger, faster, more aggressive and harder working in winning it back. Excellent.

Comparing the two squads the only area we are ahead on is that our goalkeeper is agiler than theirs’, although I quickly realise this is Joe Lewis, who is injured. Plus, our midfield has fractionally better leadership. So there.

Before assessing the strengths and weaknesses of Celtic, I must first find out how they play. I wanted to look at their decisive 3-0 away win against Rijeka in champions league qualifying, but as that game wasn’t on TV the stats aren’t available, where’s wyscout when you need it? Instead, I’ll have to look at their 2-1 home loss, when progression was already secured.

Average position with ball

Tierney and Lustig especially bomb forward to support the attack, leaving the centre-backs isolated. Sinclair and Roberts sit slightly narrower, looking to cut inside.

Average positions without ball

Far more compact, as expected, but perhaps there is some space between fullbacks and wingers.

Heat map

Very impressive obviously. Shows Celtics’ desire and ability to keep the ball in the opponents’ final third. They also show a slight preference to the left-hand side.

Pass combinations

Also proves bad reading. Majority of outfield players with 90+ combinations. Again shows preference towards left hand side. Rogic interestingly most important player rather than Scott Brown.

The player I’m most concerned about, however, is defensive midfielder Nir Bitton. As the defensive midfielder, he seemed to be the instigator of attacking moves, constantly being used as a reference point when Celtic looked to consolidate the ball.

Key passes

Two things that become immediately clear from looking at this graphic and watching the highlights of the key passes.

Majority of key passes come from the golden zone (areas just outside the box, centrally) Most key passes are to a wide player in space. Celtic threatened consistently with wide men high up the pitch to receive the ball when possession is lost.

Scoring chances

From watching the highlights of clear and half chances, they all seem to come about in the same way. Celtic are parked in the oppositions’ half, patiently passing the ball about until they create an opening.

General notes

From the highlights, I can see them making the same mistake twice for both goals conceded. Both goals came from long balls over the top, and on both occasions were completely missed by the centre-backs. Celtics’ two first-choice centre-backs, Sviatchenko and Boyata, are out injured, therefore the backup brigade has been called upon.

Ultimately, I’m caught between a rock and a hard place. If I push up, I risk being caught in behind. But if I sit back, Celtic have the quality to pull us apart. If I let Celtic play with the ball, they will create chances and score goals. If I press them, we’ll inevitably leave gaps for them to exploit.

The game plan

I decide to be brave. When Rijeka, a far better side than us, tried to sit back and defend they got pulled apart. I, therefore, am wanting my team to press the opposition up high, preventing them from building-up play through the midfield. This is risky considering the pace of either Griffiths or Dembélé, but this is a risk I’ll have to make.

As the TIs show, the plan is to try to hassle the opponents, preventing them from developing a rhythm. Unfortunately, Christie can’t play against his parent club, so McLean is moved into the Number 10 role, and Tansey becomes the DLP. Shinnie has been moved to the right to nullify Scott Brown and also to act as a roadblock when Sinclair tries to cut in from the left. Reynolds and O’Connor have been chosen to combat the strength and pace of whichever striker Celtic choose. I later changed Lewis’ role to a standard goalkeeper as I suspect his role may be leading to a few slack back-passes and I don’t want to take such a risk in a game like this. I also moved Reine-Adelaide onto the bench in place of Rogers.

Celtic Line-up

Thank you FM Jesus. Celtic make a number of changes, presumably with champions league qualifying in mind, but maybe they think we’re mugs. Lustig, Forrest, Bitton and Brown are conspicuous in their absence. ‘Tony Ralston starts at left back ahead of both Lustig and Gamboa. While he’s certainly one for the future, his attributes at this point are very average. In response, I push GMS into the AML strata to isolate him 1-on-1. Kouassi Eboué starts infront of the back four. Far from possessing the ball-playing capabilities of Brown and Bitton, Eboué is rather average. A composure attribute of 8 suggests we may squeeze a mistake out of him. Despite all of this, Celtic still have several fantastic players who could cause us real problems.

The game

In the first five minutes, no team seemed to control the game. It all seemed very muddled, with ourselves getting outpaced on the counter-attack. As a result, I instructed the team to keep the ball and lower tempo, just for a few minutes.

After 10 minutes, we had 70% of the ball, and were preventing Celtic from breaking on us. GMS was winning his duel with Ralston easily, tearing past him several times before delivering disappointing balls.

We quickly create a chance. Reynolds finds space in the box but glances, Tansey’s free-kick narrowly over. Celtic are on the ropes. Celtic create their first chance of the game after 18 minutes, by far the best chance of the game thus far. They counter us from our own free-kick, Roberts fired wide when 1-on-1 with Lewis.

As much as I love this game, I could write a long list of things I hate about it. High on that list is Corners, principally defending them. Unfortunately, that’s exactly how Celtic opened the scoring after 25 minutes. Perhaps I am asking too much, but when a loose ball falls within a yard or so from my defender on the far post, I expect him to, I don’t know, fucking kick it. What I do not want is for him to simply stand there, not even turning, not engaging with the ball or the opposition. I’m sure he had no clue that Leigh Griffiths was on hand to tap the ball in. Our goal nearly came just before halftime, McLean shooting just wide after a well-worked free-kick routine.

At half-time, Celtic had just about wrestled back control of the match. What was clear that a high line would not work against Celtic, as I had underestimated their pace. I had also not realised how awful defensive AI is when running towards their own goal, but that’s out of my hands. I, therefore, revert to a standard defensive line and ask my team to retain possession, as we seemed to be resorting to hoofs to Rooney late in the half.

Our first clear-cut chance came on 50 minutes. Rooney came deep to collect the ball, played a fantastic ball to GMS whose inch-perfect cross could not be converted by Greg Stewart at the back post. Despite being on top for the first portion of the second half, we conceded a seemingly fatal second goal. I can’t begrudge this one, it was simply a moment of magic from a special player in Patrick Roberts. He picked up the ball outside the box, and curled an unstoppable shot into the top corner. In all honestly, I felt at this point the game had gone. I changed highlights from full match to comprehensive to save time. Yet the very next highlight saw us get back into the game. Shay Logan, who up to that point had had a terrible game, produced an inch-perfect cross for GMS at the back post to head in. As I push for an equalizer, I pulled back Tansey into the DM strata to prevent Celtic breaking on us. As men pushed up to grab an equaliser, Celtic scored a third late on, Sinclair and Griffiths breaking in behind before the latter put the ball into an empty net. As a final insult, Shinnie was sent off for one of those moronic 15 yard jumping tackles that aren’t present in real life football.

I could simply copy and paste my conclusion from the last blog. Again, we controlled possession and prevented the opposition from playing the way they wanted. Yet again it came down to a silly set piece goal, while we ourselves fluffed easy chances. The main difference was our defensive shortcomings. There have been lots of positives from these first difficult matches, but we have a lot to learn. I don’t want to just be valiant losers for the duration of this save.

Edit: Upon reflecting on the game, It’s fairly obvious to see why we lost- I considered the opponent’s strengths and weaknesses, without considering my own. A pressing system should work against most teams in Scotland, but perhaps not against Celtic with a notably pacey front line. I also stuck too close to my ideology, in regards to the formation. Quickly I noticed that I should have been playing with a defensive midfielder to control the space in front of the defenders. Stupidly, I felt as if I couldn’t stray away from the 4-2-3-1/4-4-1-1 after including it in the ideology post. In retrospect, a formation with a defensive midfielder, such as a 4-1-2-3, would have been far more appropriate.