ONE company you might expect to make three-dimensional (3D) printers is HP, a giant in the world of two-dimensional printing. There are similarities between inkjet printers and desktop 3D printers, which deposit successive layers of molten plastic instead of liquid ink in order to build up solid objects. So HP should know something about the technology. And it already has a big customer base into which it could sell such machines. Indeed, many desktop 3D printers can already be found in offices next to their 2D counterparts. But apart from a brief liaison with Stratasys, a Minneapolis firm which made some 3D printers for HP, nothing has appeared. That could change next year because HP is finally preparing to enter the market, Meg Whitman, the firm’s chief executive, has revealed in recent meetings with analysts. Although short on detail, Ms Whitman talked of making 3D printers that offer good value in different segments of the consumer and industrial market.

But has HP missed the bus? Ms Whitman describes the 3D printing industry as being an “acorn” which could grow into a business with good long-term prospects. Instead of buying an existing producer, like Stratasys, or the other publicly-traded market leader, 3D Systems, based in South Carolina, she says HP will develop its products “organically”. The company certainly has the resources to do that, but to be a success it will take more than just being big.

The 3D-printing business is small, but growing and changing quickly. The original use of 3D printers was to make prototypes and models of parts. Yet last year 28% of the $2.2 billion spent on 3D-printed products and services was for the production of final parts in manufacturing, reckons Wohlers Associates, which tracks the industry. These 3D printed finished goods range from hearing-aid shells to dental crowns, medical implants, jewellery, repair parts and aerospace components. In 2003 such products generated barely 4% of 3D-printing revenue.

This could be a challenge for HP’s salesforce, which mainly sells to IT departments. Many 3D printers have found their way into design offices and research labs because individuals entranced with the technology have badgered management to buy one. As potential customers these people are picky—and they have a dozen or more different types of 3D printing technology to pick from. As more of the machines turn into production tools, HP’s salesmen will need to get down and dirty with production managers, who have their own very specific requirements. At the top of the market, 3D printers that can produce items in metal by laser-sintering powders (a speciality of a number of European firms) can cost $500,000 or more. These tend to be purchased more like capital goods.

Because of its size, HP should be able to drive prices down. But in the consumer end of the market these are already relatively low. There are a number of 3D printers costing around $2,000, like those made by Brooklyn-based MakerBot (which was bought by Stratasys earlier this year). And some Chinese-made 3D printers sell for less than $900. But the idea that every home will one day have one is, at least in the foreseeable future, a fantasy. Home users tend to be garage tinkerers and those involved in arts and crafts.

If HP can make a general purpose, inexpensive, reliable and easy to use 3D printer, it should do well. But to succeed it needs to overcome some of the technology’s shortcomings. One of these is software. 3D printers are driven by software, but without some knowledge of how to handle computer-aided design programs, printing an object can be tricky. So elegant and easy-to-use software should be high on HP’s list of things to do.

And it is not just the price of the machine that needs to be competitive, but also the materials which 3D printers use to manufacture things. At present some 3D printing firms adopt the 2D-printer model of selling machines cheap but charging a fortune for the “ink”. That is unlikely to be sustainable, because open 3D-printing systems that will allow users to source and produce their own printing materials are being developed.

The quality of 3D printed objects is improving, but more progress is needed. If HP comes up with a machine that can economically print multiple materials then potential buyers would take note. At present, different machines are needed to print different materials, which is one of the reasons why some companies do not want to buy their own 3D printers and instead use a service provider like Shapeways, Materialise or Sculpteo to print their wares.

However it is dressed up, HP is late to this business. Sometimes, though, it is the late entrants who clean up with new technology because they can avoid the mistakes of the pioneers. But 3D printing has been around in various forms (it used to be called stereo lithography) for some 25 years and a number of companies are already rather good at it.