Data just released by the Union Ministry of New and Renewable Energy show that ground-mounted solar plants totalling 9,009.81 MW were set up in 2017-18 — just about meeting the 9,000 MW target for the year. Yet, the cheering must be muted because the target itself was scaled down.

An ‘office memorandum’ of the Ministry dated April 6, 2016, mentions the target for 2017-18 as 15,000 MW. A ‘concept note’ of the Ministry of December 2017, puts the target for the rooftop sub-segment at 5,000 MW for the year.

Downscaling

The 5,000 MW target for rooftop was quietly scaled down to 1,000 MW in subsequent data releases of the Ministry. During the year, however, rooftop solar plants of only 353 MW came up. But that is still not the full story, because the Ministry counts only those rooftop projects that come to it for subsidy.

Regardless, the target for ground-mounted solar plants ought to have, therefore, been 10,000 MW, and not 9,000 MW. The Ministry has not only scaled down the rooftop target of 5,000 MW to 1,000 MW, but also lowered the overall (ground-mounted plus rooftop) target to 10,000 MW. Hence, the illusion that the solar target for the year has been achieved.

Going by the April 2016 memorandum, India should have ended 2017-18 with a solar capacity of 32,000 MW, in its run-up towards the ultimate goal of 100,000 MW by March 2022. What has been achieved is 21,651 MW (20,587 MW of ground mounted and 1,063 MW of rooftop).

A few industry insiders, who do not wish to be named, observed that while the government can revise targets based on ground realities, doing so without giving reasons did not seem right.

2018-19 scenario

So, what is in store for 2018-19? The original target was 16,000 MW for that year, which includes 6,000 MW of rooftop plants.

This is likely to be met, given that solar projects of 14,230 MW were tendered out in 2017-18, most of which will come up this year. In addition, there will be new tenders. But the run-rate is still not good enough for the 100,000 MW target for 2022.

Wind surprise

The wind industry ended 2017-18 with fresh capacity additions of 1,766.25 MW against the target of 4,000 MW. But the fact that the achievement in the first 11 months of the year was 597 MW shows the industry’s resilience.