AFP

A RIOT in Bern, letter bombs at centre-right politicians' homes: these are not what one expects in Switzerland. Extremists on left and right have dominated the news in the weeks leading up to the general election on October 21st. As ever, the focus is on the far-right Swiss People's Party (SVP) of Christoph Blocher, who is justice minister in the federal government. Yet neither his bluster nor that of his opponents is likely to lead to a big shift in voting.

Mr Blocher and his chums took control of the SVP in the 1990s. He used the referendum system to keep Switzerland well away from the European Union, and he persistently blamed immigration for the country's ills. His brand of populist nationalism struck a chord with many Swiss citizens. The party doubled its share of the national vote in 12 years to reach 26.7%, ahead of the three other main parties, at the 2003 election. With the biggest share of parliamentary seats, the SVP won a second ministerial post in Switzerland's seven-strong federal government, at the expense of the Christian Democrats. This was the first time that the “magic formula” power-sharing arrangement among the four parties had changed since 1959, and it put the SVP on the same footing as the Socialists and the centre-right Radicals.

Yet for all the headlines, the SVP's rise seems to have all but halted. Opinion polls give it roughly the same vote as four years ago. Mr Blocher's transition from anti-establishment government critic into justice minister has done little for his ratings. Polls suggest that he is one of the least popular ministers. He often alludes in public to disagreements with his six cabinet colleagues, a practice that is frowned on by most consensus-minded Swiss.

The SVP's tone continues to be shrill, and it draws accusations of xenophobia, especially from the left and in francophone western Switzerland. The party wants a referendum to ban the construction of minarets at Muslim places of worship. A poster depicting three white sheep kicking a black sheep off the Swiss flag has triggered protests, culminating in a riot in Bern on October 6th when hundreds of left-wing extremists clashed with police during an SVP election rally. The SVP insists feebly that the poster is aimed at expelling foreigners convicted of crimes, not at immigrants in general.

With the economy ticking over quite healthily, immigration and the environment have emerged as the biggest issues for Swiss voters. The first may help the SVP, but the second is boosting the Green Party, now the fastest-rising political force. It may even break through the 10% mark for the first time. Some political analysts conclude that the SVP has reached a plateau from which it will eventually fall back. “I think the SVP will decline once Mr Blocher isn't there. They'll lose 5% in one go,” says Hans Hirter of the University of Bern. But that may be some time off: Mr Blocher is just 67.