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Oregon is weighing a proposal to offer a free two-year community college education.

(Doug Beghtel / The Oregonian / 2011)

A proposal to make community college free to Oregonians would cost the state from $10 million to $250 million a year, depending on which students are eligible and whether room and board are covered, national experts have concluded.

Oregon's governor and legislature want to dramatically increase the proportion of Oregon adults who earn college degrees and credentials. The 2013 Legislature voted to study offering two years of free community college as one way to accomplish that.

Oregon's Higher Education Coordinating Commission completed that study, mostly by relying on experts at the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, and forwarded it to the Legislature Thursday.

One big question: If the state opted to make community college free, would it pay the full cost for students to attend, including room and board, or would it only fund tuition and fees?

If the state did the latter, it would spend a lot less -- but virtually all the money would go to students from middle-class families, commission members noted.

That is because low-income students qualify for Pell grants of about $5,500 a year -- enough to cover community college tuition and fees. In other words, community college is already free, by one definition, to Oregonians from families earning less than about $50,000 a year.

At least 70 percent of students who attend community college in Oregon qualify for Pell grants, according to Patrick Kelly, a top official at the national higher ed management center.

If the state were to offer to pay all community college tuition and fees not covered by Pell grants or parents' federally-designated "expected family contribution," and limited the benefit to recent Oregon high school graduates who enroll in community college full time, that would cost the state $10 million to $13 million. Between 10,000 and 13,000 students would be covered.

But the yearly costs and number of participants would increase, in some cases dramatically, if those limits were changed.

For example:

Cover recent grads who attend part time too: $16 million to $20 million for 16,000 to 21,000 students.

Limit the benefit to full-time community college students but offer free tuition to all adults who need it, not just recent graduates: $25 million to $32 million for 30,000 to 43,000 students.

Cover two years of tuition for all ages enrolled full or part time: $56 million to $74 million for 70,000 to 104,000 students.

What would really raise the pricetag, however, would be to cover the full $14,500 yearly cost of attending community college, including room, board and books. It is those expenses that are the biggest barrier to low-income Oregonians enrolling in and remaining enrolled in community college, Kelly said.

If the state were to pay the full cost of attendance not covered by Pell grants, the "expected" family contribution and state opportunity scholarships for all recent high school graduates enrolled full time in community college, it would cost the state $23 million to $31 million a year, the national center estimated.

Again, raising limits on which students are eligible would increase participation and costs.

Open the program to recent grads who enroll part-time too: $35 million to $50 million.

Open the program to community college students of all ages: $165 million to $250 million.

Spending $250 million more on higher education would be a huge stretch in state budget that currently devotes bout $700 million a year total to operating universities, community colleges and state financial aid.

Gov. John Kitzhaber asked the higher ed commission earlier this year to tell him how it would spend an extra $125 million a year over the next two years -- 20 percent above and beyond what it would cost to extend current higher education operations. Free community college did not make the cut. Neither did the tuition-free college finance plan known as Pay It Forward.

Instead, the commission said it would spend nearly all the $250 million this way:

$100 million to begin to pay off bonds the state issued for construction at universities, community colleges and Oregon Health & Sciences University. The state has no choice but to spend that money, higher education executive director Ben Cannon explained.

$73 million to add to the budgets of the state's seven universities and 17 community colleges.

$66 million to

Neil Bryant, a member of the Higher Education Coordinating Commission chairs the subcommittee that looked in depth at the free community college proposal.

"It was a great discussion -- a little bit mind-boggling, but we were all fascinated by it," he said.

Bryant said the full commission needs to think more about how free community college would fit in with those spending proposals and the commission's overall goal of raising Oregonians' college attainment. "We weren't sure how to compare it with the other things we have been talking about," he said.

The commission will debate that next month and forward its recommendations to the Legislature, he said.

-- Betsy Hammond