Turnbull only just ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, having dropped 12 points in a month

This article is more than 2 years old

This article is more than 2 years old

If Malcolm Turnbull hits 30 Newspolls trailing Labor, he will have to explain why he shouldn’t go as prime minister, Tony Abbott has warned.

Turnbull is only narrowly clinging to his preferred prime minister status following upheavals that continue to disrupt his government, the latest Newspoll reveals.



Despite registering a 14-point lead at the start of February, Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has collapsed by 12 points over the past four weeks as the Barnaby Joyce affair has taken its toll.

Turnbull is now sitting on 37% as preferred PM, just ahead of the opposition leader, Bill Shorten, on 35%, according to the poll published by the Australian on Sunday night. The two men were sitting at 45% to 31% at the start of February.



And the Coalition is again trailing Labor in the two-party preferred vote, 47% to 53%.

It marks the 28th consecutive poll the government has been behind Labor under Turnbull’s leadership.

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When Turnbull challenged Abbott for the prime ministership in late 2015, he cited 30 consecutive Newspoll losses as a reason why Abbott had to go.



He said at the time: “The one thing that is clear about our current situation is the trajectory. We have lost 30 Newspolls in a row. It is clear that the people have made up their mind about Mr Abbott’s leadership.”

But in December last year, Turnbull said he regretted using the metric of “30 Newspolls” because it had become a distraction. He said Abbott had to be replaced in 2015 because he had not been providing the economic leadership Australia needed and he was not treating cabinet properly.

But Abbott has jumped on this week’s Newspoll, saying Turnbull will have to explain why his 30-consecutive-poll metric shouldn’t apply to him.

“I never made the polls the be-all and the end-all, I never turned the poll into the ultimate test of leadership,” Abbott told 2GB radio on Monday.

“It was the prime minister who set this test and I guess if he fails the test it will be the prime minister who will have to explain why the test was right for one and not right for the other.

“It will be up to him to tell us all why the test doesn’t apply in his case.”

The last few weeks have been consumed by news about Joyce, who resigned as Nationals leader and deputy prime minister a week before this poll was conducted.

The poll of 1,657 people was conducted between Thursday and Sunday. On Saturday, Joyce sparked controversy again by publicly casting doubt on the paternity of the child of his former staffer and now partner, Vikki Campion, who is expecting in April.

Then in an interview with Fairfax Media on Sunday Joyce suggested the identity of the biological father was “a grey area”, but said it made no difference because he intended to raise the boy as his own. On Monday he told reporters in Tamworth personal questions were off limits.



“Anything that’s personal in nature is nobody else’s business but mine and Vikki’s, nobody else’s business,” Joyce said. “So we’re not here to be part of some ongoing litany of discussions about this.”



In an attempt to get the government’s messaging back on track in recent weeks, the government has been pursuing a “Kill Bill” strategy by refocusing attention on Shorten’s union links and his criticism of the Adani coalmine.

But the strategy hasn’t boosted the government’s position in voters’ eyes. Its primary vote has risen by just one point to 37%, while Labor’s rose by the same margin to 38%.



However, the satisfaction ratings of both leaders have fallen, with Turnbull dropping two points to 32% and Shorten down by one to 33%.

Labor frontbencher Michelle Rowland said the government was too focused on attacking Shorten.



“If they spent more time focusing on the Australian people ... they would see much better results,” she told Sky News on Monday.

Nationals minister Keith Pitt, who will be sworn back in to the frontbench on Monday, conceded it had been a messy start to the year, but said his constituents weren’t interested in the gossip and rumours.



“I don’t work on the set of Days of Our Lives. This is a serious building where serious decisions are made and we continue to be focused on that,” he told Sky News.

