Devine Ozigbo is one of only a couple class of 2019 RBs with a legitimate all-purpose skillset and prototype NFL size to match it. Measuring in at his pro day at almost 6' and 222 pounds, Ozigbo is a strongly-built runner with thick, powerful legs. He fits just about perfectly into the physical mold of an NFL workhorse, the 6', 220+ pound runner who carries the ball 15+ times a game; of the 23 players drafted since 2007 who've averaged that kind of workload in their career, 11 of them weigh over 220 pounds and another 8 weigh at least 215. Ozigbo is what a bellcow NFL RB looks like.

Production Profile

Ozigbo is a late-bloomer who flirted with but did not quite meet age-adjusted production thresholds for NFL success (based on players with at least one RB2 season):





Ozigbo never received more than 155 carries in a season and his final year Dominator Rating at Nebraska of 25.4% is in the 43rd-percentile of RBs drafted since 2007. He doesn't have a single really dominant season on his college resumé, and that's a concern for his profile as a prospect; to feel really confident about a guy, you want to see him be one of the best players on his college team from an early age, and Devine Ozigbo just doesn't have that.





What makes me more willing to look past a lack of great production from Ozigbo is his ability as a receiver. Going back to the first year he garnered significant touches for the Cornhuskers, Ozigbo posted two straight seasons of at least 16 receptions, producing upper-percentile Satellite Scores in both of those seasons. Especially impressive for a guy his size, his 37.0 Satellite Score during his senior year is in the 66th-percentile. The big back with that kind of receiving ability is a rare breed: of players drafted since 2007 with Satellite Scores between 35.0 and 40.0, only two have weighed over 220 pounds; the list of 215+ pound backs in that range is David Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Devontae Booker, Mark Ingram, Kareem Hunt, Mikel Leshoure, Felix Jones, Andre Brown, Keith Marshall, and Marcus Lattimore. While Ozigbo doesn't have the production of a surefire great NFL prospect, I believe his rare combination of size and ability to contribute in the passing game makes him a skillset match to a lot of the best RBs in the league.









Rushing Efficiency

Devine Ozigbo was one of the most efficient runners in this class during his final season at Nebraska. He showed big play ability with a Breakaway Rate Over Team (a metric that measures the percentage of a player's runs that went for 20+ yards compared to the rest of his team's percentage) of 1.59%, which was top-10 in the class, but where Ozigbo really stood out was in his ability to consistently pick up positive yardage. His Loss Rate was the 5th-lowest in the class at just 6.45%, and his True YPC (which discounts long runs to a maximum of 10 yards) was the 3rd-highest among 2019 backs at a fantastic 4.56, behind only Maryland's Ty Johnson and Georgia's Elijah Holyfield.





data from cfbstats.com and expandtheboxscore.com





These are encouraging numbers for a player who didn't receive a heavy workload in college. They portend an NFL runner who identifies holes quickly, hits them hard, and is able to extend runs into the secondary. Ozigbo likely won't be a guy who rips off breakaway runs at a high rate against NFL defenders with better speed than those he saw in the Big Ten, but I do expect him to find success by leveraging his size and power in short yardage situations and by using his vision and decisiveness to find and accelerate through holes quickly. Ozigbo also displayed quality ability to make things happen outside the contributions of the blocking he received up front. According to Pro Football Focus, Ozigbo was an impressive producer among 2019 draft eligible RBs in missed tackles forced per attempt, as well as gained well over half of his total rushing yards after contact.



Similarity Scores & Overall Outlook





Athletically, Ozigbo is almost an identical match to Kenneth Dixon and Jay Ajayi, and with just a quarter of an inch in height and one pound in weight separating them, Ozigbo is a virtual Ajayi clone from a physical standpoint.









I want to acknowledge the possibility that Devine Ozigbo is a Dwayne Washington or Andre Brown-level player in the NFL. Of the only four players in our database with Dominator Ratings, Satellite Scores, and Power Scores each as high as Ozigbo's respective marks in those metrics, one of them is Saquon Barkley and the other three are Cedric Peerman, Andre Brown, and Brandon Bolden. While a pretty unique and exciting prospect, Ozigbo is not a sure thing. But, especially in this draft class, if you're looking for sure things, you're not going to find one. Ozigbo checks almost every box, and has an overall profile that compares well to successful NFL runners.





Of all the RB prospects I've evaluated so far this year (as of 3/31), Ozigbo is the only one with at least an 85% match to four or more players with RB2-level fantasy seasons on their resumés. That tells me that it's not a stretch to expect Ozigbo to one day be a high-quality fantasy contributor. His closest overall match in the database is Kareem Hunt at 90.9%, and that 9.1% gap between them is mostly made up of superior production at a small school for Hunt, and superior size and athleticism for Ozigbo. Ajayi, Ozigbo's second closest Path to Success comp, was also a superior producer against lesser competition, but Ozigbo has him beat in projected receiving ability. While he wasn't a supremely dominant force in college, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that Ozigbo in a vacuum is a better prospect than either Hunt or Ajayi were.





Overall, Devine Ozigbo is a strong prospect with a pretty unique combination of size and pass-catching ability. His not getting a combine invite is a shot to the gut for his potential draft stock, but after a strong pro day showing, he will get an opportunity somewhere in the NFL. I believe his versatile skillset will eventually be his ticket to a starting job, and when that happens, I think he has Kareem Hunt/Eddie Lacy-level RB1 seasons in his future. He's the bigger, more explosive Hunt, the smaller, faster Lacy, the Jay Ajayi with receiving chops, and the player that fantasy drafters want Rashaad Penny to be. Ozigbo and Miles Sanders are 1A and 1B for me in this class, and I think you'll be able to get Ozigbo substantially later in dynasty rookie drafts than you will Sanders. He's not the 3rd-round rookie pick he was before his pro day, but he's still not the late 1st-round pick he should be. Let others bite on the David Montgomerys and the Josh Jacobses early on. You'll get the better player later.



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Ozigbo's not being invited to the NFL Combine will likely hurt his draft stock, but he did impress at his pro day. An adjusted 40 time of 4.59 doesn't show elite speed, but it's certainly fast enough to play at a high level in the NFL, especially when considered next to the 81st-percentile (according to playerprofiler.com ) 124.9 Burst Score that Ozigbo produced in the jumps. That's rare explosiveness for a player of Ozigbo's size -- in our database, only 20 of the 63 players with Burst Score marks higher than Ozigbo's 124.9 are at least 220 pounds (with names like Jonathan Stewart, Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, LaDainian Tomlinson, David Johnson, and Saquon Barkley among them). Ozigbo's combination of size, build, and upper and lower body strength produces a 56.5 Power Score, a 75th-percentile mark that indicates strong ability to handle heavy work in the NFL.Our closest pre-pro day match for Devine Ozigbo was Eddie Lacy, a skillset comparison I really liked. As it turns out, Ozigbo is lighter and much more athletic than Lacy, which opens him to up to some other very successful pro comps: