HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 2-GAMES-1) Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 2 games to 1. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 2-games-1 MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 2-games-1 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .6875 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2019. sport round site Game 4 rec. series rec. all all all 512-539 (.487) 774-277 (.736) all all H 310-340 (.477) 524-126 (.806) all all V 202-199 (.504) 250-151 (.623) all Finals all 100-99 (.503) 149-50 (.749) all Finals H 62-65 (.488) 102-25 (.803) all Finals V 38-34 (.528) 47-25 (.653) all Semis all 128-133 (.490) 202-59 (.774) all Semis H 73-83 (.468) 127-29 (.814) all Semis V 55-50 (.524) 75-30 (.714) all Qtrs all 140-158 (.470) 222-76 (.745) all Qtrs H 89-100 (.471) 159-30 (.841) all Qtrs V 51-58 (.468) 63-46 (.578) all Prelim all 144-149 (.491) 201-92 (.686) all Prelim H 86-92 (.483) 136-42 (.764) all Prelim V 58-57 (.504) 65-50 (.565) MLB all all 79-62 (.560) 100-41 (.709) MLB all H 44-33 (.571) 58-19 (.753) MLB all V 35-29 (.547) 42-22 (.656) MLB Finals all 43-44 (.494) 59-28 (.678) MLB Finals H 22-25 (.468) 33-14 (.702) MLB Finals V 21-19 (.525) 26-14 (.650) MLB Semis all 36-18 (.667) 41-13 (.759) MLB Semis H 22-8 (.733) 25-5 (.833) MLB Semis V 14-10 (.583) 16-8 (.667) NBA all all 199-208 (.489) 324-83 (.796) NBA all H 125-151 (.453) 243-33 (.880) NBA all V 74-57 (.565) 81-50 (.618) NBA Finals all 30-29 (.508) 48-11 (.814) NBA Finals H 21-21 (.500) 36-6 (.857) NBA Finals V 9-8 (.529) 12-5 (.706) NBA Semis all 42-53 (.442) 74-21 (.779) NBA Semis H 21-40 (.344) 50-11 (.820) NBA Semis V 21-13 (.618) 24-10 (.706) NBA Qtrs all 77-82 (.484) 129-30 (.811) NBA Qtrs H 53-61 (.465) 104-10 (.912) NBA Qtrs V 24-21 (.533) 25-20 (.556) NBA Prelim all 50-44 (.532) 73-21 (.777) NBA Prelim H 30-29 (.508) 53-6 (.898) NBA Prelim V 20-15 (.571) 20-15 (.571) NHL all all 234-269 (.465) 350-153 (.696) NHL all H 141-156 (.475) 223-74 (.751) NHL all V 93-113 (.451) 127-79 (.617) NHL Finals all 27-26 (.509) 42-11 (.792) NHL Finals H 19-19 (.500) 33-5 (.868) NHL Finals V 8-7 (.533) 9-6 (.600) NHL Semis all 50-62 (.446) 87-25 (.777) NHL Semis H 30-35 (.462) 52-13 (.800) NHL Semis V 20-27 (.426) 35-12 (.745) NHL Qtrs all 63-76 (.453) 93-46 (.669) NHL Qtrs H 36-39 (.480) 55-20 (.733) NHL Qtrs V 27-37 (.422) 38-26 (.594) NHL Prelim all 94-105 (.472) 128-71 (.643) NHL Prelim H 56-63 (.471) 83-36 (.697) NHL Prelim V 38-42 (.475) 45-35 (.563)