Once-reluctant S.F. Mayor Ed Lee says he’ll run for 2nd term

The success of propositions he backed may have given Ed Lee something to smile about. The success of propositions he backed may have given Ed Lee something to smile about. Photo: Pete Kiehart / The Chronicle Photo: Pete Kiehart / The Chronicle Image 1 of / 3 Caption Close Once-reluctant S.F. Mayor Ed Lee says he’ll run for 2nd term 1 / 3 Back to Gallery

Fresh off a handful of local ballot measure victories, Mayor Ed Lee on Thursday erased any doubts about his running for re-election next fall, saying he intends to govern San Francisco for another four-year term.

“I am going to be running for re-election,” Lee said Thursday at an appearance to promote the renovation of the track at Kezar Stadium.

Lee pointed to the success in Tuesday’s election of five ballot measures he championed — ranging from a $500 million transportation bond to raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour — as evidence that voters support his agenda.

“We had a good election night,” the mayor said. “I think based really upon the fact that the voters were so strong in saying that they want these things done, that I’m up for leading that effort and making sure it gets done successfully.”

Political analysts, though, were mixed on the message San Francisco voters sent Tuesday, with some lauding Lee and others describing the mayor’s spotlighting of a handful of ballot measures as a “charade” that obscured deep divisions among San Franciscans about the cost of living in a tech boom that Lee has encouraged.

“Mayor Lee won everything. He has a Midas touch,” said Nathan Ballard, a Democratic strategist allied with Lee. The mayor “looks so strong right now that it could end up being one of those elections where you have only one real candidate along with a dozen nuts, sure losers and naked guys.”

Other analysts said reading that much into the approval of a handful of ballot measures was risky, if not off-base.

“The results are more complex than that,” said Corey Cook, a political science professor at the University of San Francisco. “I wouldn’t imagine that they would enter into a calculus about whether or not to run.”

Future challenger?

They certainly haven’t dissuaded state Sen. Mark Leno, who said last month he was considering challenging Lee, a fellow Democrat in a Democratic city. The election results and Lee’s announcement haven’t changed Leno’s position.

“Many people have been asking me to consider a mayoral run,” Leno said in an e-mail Thursday. “To those who are asking, I am listening.”

A citywide poll in April showed Leno running ahead of Lee, 40 to 36 percent, in a head-to-head matchup in November 2015. The poll’s margin of error was five percentage points. If he enters the race, Leno, who would be San Francisco’s first gay mayor, is expected to capture strong support from the city’s progressive left and the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community. Leno could also draw support from some liberal and moderate voters.

Analysis of election results shows the five winning measures that Lee is underscoring attracted a range of voters, but four of the propositions were either uncontested or faced very minor opposition. The five were:

•Prop. A: A $500 million bond for transit, roadway, bike and pedestrian improvements that faced only minor opposition but needed two-thirds approval to pass.

• Prop. C: Renewing and expanding a property tax set-aside for after-school programs, wellness centers and other children’s programs.

•Prop. I: Renovating the Beach Chalet soccer fields in Golden Gate Park by adding artificial turf, bleachers and lights for nighttime use. It was the only contested measure the mayor backed.

•Prop. J: Raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour by July 2018. This was a compromise measure that Lee worked out with business interests, union leaders and others.

•Prop. K: A watered-down, nonbinding compromise measure on affordable housing.

On election night, Chronicle columnist and former Mayor Willie Brown exulted, “Mayor Ed Lee is having one hell of a night. One hell of a night!”

On Thursday, former Mayor Art Agnos disagreed.

“When you look at each of the measures, there was no fierce opposition,” said Agnos, San Francisco’s last progressive mayor. “There was no extraordinary leadership on his part on those issues. He rode the back of other activists and other community interests and puffed up his resume.”

Lee wouldn’t take positions on the two most contentious measures on the city’s ballot: Prop. E, a tax on soda and other sugar-sweetened drinks, and Prop. G, a tax designed to deter real estate speculators from flipping multi-unit residential properties.

Risk-averse

“When it came to the tough issues, the leadership issues, he ducked them,” Agnos said.

Part of Lee’s success, though, can be traced to consensus- building and reaching agreements to keep dueling measures off the ballot.

“We worked very hard at setting a different tone at City Hall,” the mayor said of his roughly four years in office. “Working collaboratively, and working on things that mattered to people and demonstrating that every day.”

Lee, then the little-known city administrator, was appointed in January 2011 as a one-year caretaker mayor, then seven months later broke his promise not to run for a full term, which he won handily amid a crowded field. He has presided over a tech-fueled economic boom that has seen the city’s unemployment rate slashed by more than half, a resurgence in development and a stabilization of the city’s budget.

That economic success has been accompanied by a spike in evictions and the cost of living, particularly housing. A Brookings Institution report in March found that San Francisco had the nation’s fastest-growing gap between the rich and poor.

The real estate website Zillow recently found that the median rent in San Francisco is $3,845 a month. Under its analysis, someone spending 30 percent of his or her income on rent would have to make $76.90 an hour to afford the rent payment — far more than the coming $15-an-hour minimum wage.

Housing crisis

Lee has described the soaring home prices and lack of housing affordable to middle- and lower-income residents as a “a genuine crisis” and is trying to build housing at a rate unmatched in the city’s modern history. Housing, transportation, parks and family services “are the challenges, now, of our times,” he said.

How the public views Lee’s progress on those fronts remains to be seen.

Jim Stearns, a political consultant who works primarily on progressive campaigns, said the fact that the race between supervisors David Chiu and David Campos for the District 17 seat in the state Assembly had been so tightly contested was a more accurate indicator of the city’s mood. Campos conceded defeat Thursday evening.

Lee and Chiu were two of the prime movers behind the tax break that attracted tech firms like Twitter to the Mid-Market area, and Lee recently signed legislation that Chiu authored to legalize and regulate short-term rentals like those through online site Airbnb. Ron Conway, an investor in both tech firms, is one of Lee’s biggest political donors.

“The closeness of the Campos-versus-Chiu race indicates to me some deep reservations among voters about the relationship with tech money and city government,” said Stearns, who worked on Campos’ campaign. “I think those reservations are going to grow, not diminish, over time.”

How much voters remember November 2014, and whether it gives Lee real momentum, is an open question.

“I’m telling you,” Stearns said, “a year is a lifetime in politics.”

John Coté is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: jcote@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @johnwcote