In addition, the Russian government has capped the profit margin for defense procurement programs at between three and five percent. Kommersant’s source was quick to note that while this limited the profitability of the contract, the deal would ensure that United Aircraft Corporation’s (UAC) Komsomolsk-on-Amur production line would be working at or near full capacity for the next decade.

The Russian President said that a 20 percent reduction in unspecified costs allowed for this significant increase. On May 16, 2019, the Kommersant newspaper in Russia reported, citing an unnamed defense industry source, that this was the result of an unexplained change in the aircraft’s internal layout, as well as improvements to the production process due to lessons learned with the beginning of limited serial production.

Putin revealed that the large order of Su-57s would be included in the country’s next upcoming armament procurement plan during a meeting on May 15, 2019 . The day before, six of the jets, approximately half of the flyable examples of the type that Russia has now, had escorted the Russian President as he flew to visit the Russian Air Force’s 929th Chkalov State Flight-Test Center. The Kremlin does have another dozen of the jets on order and had previously expected to buy just 16 more by 2028.

Less than a year after the Kremlin publicly announced that it would be deferring large-scale production of the Su-57 advanced fighter jet indefinitely, President Vladimir Putin has announced plans to buy 76 of the aircraft through 2028. The purchase order has an estimated value of more than $2.6 billion, which would make it the single largest aviation contract in Russian Air Force history, but is also a questionably low figure. Significant questions also remain as to how capable of the new planes will be, given that the first batches will still use underperforming engines , and whether Russia has the resources to keep everything on schedule at all.

UAC is a state-owned enterprise that includes the Sukhoi company. Komsomolsk-on-Amur, situated in Russia’s Far East region, is also responsible for the production of other Sukhoi fighter jets, including the latest model of the popular Flanker family, the Su-35 Flanker-E. Though Putin has announced the planned purchases, the Kremlin has yet to sign a formal contract. This official agreement could easily come at Russia’s annual MAKS airshow, which is set to run from Aug. 27 to Sept. 1, 2019, at the Zhukovsky International Airport outside Moscow. The full estimated cost, around $2.63 billion, also includes additional associated items, including infrastructure upgrades, to support the new aircraft. But there are serious questions up front about how realistic this price tag is. If the $2.63 billion cost is accurate and covers the 76 Su-57s and more, this would equate to a unit price of less than $34 million per jet. This is less than the estimated unit cost of the Su-30MKK Flankers Russia sold to China nearly two decades ago. It seems hard to see how any production line improvements or changes to the aircraft's configuration could lead to such a dramatic price reduction and anywhere near that low of unit price overall. On top of that, Putin seemed to suggest in his comments at the meeting that the cost reductions would make the order for 76 Su-57 no more expensive than the previously planned purchase of just 16 aircraft. It is very difficult to see how it could be possible to buy nearly five times as many planes for the same price with just a 20 percent decrease in costs.

UAC One of the pre-production Su-57s.

It seems more likely that the $2.63 billion would be for an initial batch of Su-57s as part of the full planned procurement program. It is also possible that Kommersant's source simply had incorrect information about the total cost. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov, seemingly aware of how improbable Putin's own comments sounded, subsequently said that the President had merely meant that the overall defense budget would not change, but that it could be necessary to reallocate funds to the Su-57 program to pay for the increased purchases. "This is not about a simple mathematical formula, it’s about the fact that, in general, the budget of the Ministry [of defense], the procurement budget will not increase, but some internal redistribution is, of course, possible and permissible," he noted. But beyond questions about the actual cost of the aircraft, there are is also the matter of the aircraft's actual capabilities. The development of suitable engines for jets has been a particularly persistent issue since the program began in the late 2000s. Sukhoi originally planned to use an advanced derivative of the Saturn AL-31F engine, found on its Flankers, for the Su-57. The advanced fighter jet would have two of these new AL-41F-1 engines. It has since become apparent that these engines do not meet the performance targets the Kremlin has outlined for the Su-57. Saturn is already working on a new, more powerful design, known as the Izdeliye 30, or “Product 30.”

NPO Saturn A briefing slide from Saturn and its partners showing the progression of the AL-31/AL-41F design leading to the Product 30 engine at the far right.