NEW YORK WASHINGT ON,DC HARTFORD DENVER CHICAGO GLOBAL STRATEGY GROUP

A new survey conducted by Global Strategy Group of likely 2018 voters

in Minnesota’s 2

nd

Congressional District shows Congressman Jason Lewis in a tight race for his seat. Lewis won by a slim two-point margin in 2016, and currently leads a generic Democratic candidate by just one point. With the primary not until August, the survey used a generic progressive challenger throughout the poll. Facing an already tight race, Lewis risks alienating undecided voters and moderates in Minnesota by continuing to support

Trump’s

anti-environment policies. Plans to cut EPA funding, reduce clean air and water regulations, and open public lands to oil and gas drilling are opposed by sizable majorities of voters in

Minnesota’s 2

nd

Congressional District. Most important, after voters are presented with a short series of critiques of

Lewis’s

positions on a range of environmental issues (along with one message on healthcare or taxes), a progressive challenger moves to a sizeable 9-point lead against the Congressman. These messages have a particularly strong impact among key blocs of voters including independents and non-college voters.

KEY SURVEY FINDINGS:

Lewis starts out in a weak position facing a difficult environment.

This district prefers a generic Democrat

by 4 points when compared to a Republican, and Lewis’s single point lead

in a named ballot is the equivalent of a statistical tie. Both Republicans in Congress (37% favorable to 48% unfavorable) and President Trump (41% favorable to 54% unfavorable) are unpopular. Moreover, fewer voters are favorable towards Lewis (38%) than unfavorable (41%).

Environmental groups and the EPA are popular, but anti-environmental actors like Scott Pruitt and the Koch Brothers are decidedly not.

“Environmental gro ups” are viewed favorably by a

60% to 23% margin and the EPA has strongly positive ratings as well (56% favorable to 34% unfavorable). Meanwhile, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt

1

is well underwater at 18% favorable to 38% unfavorable and the Koch Brothers are known by more than half the electorate and very unpopular, at 20% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable.

Le

wis’

s positions on environmental issues are deeply unpopular

. Many of the policies proposed and/or enacted by anti-environment Republicans like Lewis in Washington

–

led by efforts to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and our public lands to oil and gas companies

–

are quite unpopular, even more than the highly unpopular Republican health care plan.

1

Asked with the label “EPA Administrator”

TO

:

Interested Parties

FROM

:

Andrew Baumann, Global Strategy Group

DATE

:

June 29, 2018

RE

: