MONTREAL—Don’t expect Ford mania to seep into Quebec’s fall election campaign. The opposite is likely to happen.

Rarely have Quebecers followed an Ontario campaign with as much fascination as the one that concluded with a Tory majority victory on Thursday. But that interest was based on a mix of incredulity and relief.

Incredulity that a plurality of Ontario voters would embrace a party led by a politician whose public service and name are so inextricably linked to unprecedented havoc at the top of the municipal administration of Canada’s largest city. And relief at the thought that the electoral scenario that unfolded in Ontario over the past two months will not be a dress rehearsal for the upcoming Quebec campaign.

For many Quebecers, the notion that Ontario voters would risk a replay of the Toronto spectacle on the larger provincial stage is mind-boggling.

And then the job of premier — at least in Canada’s larger provinces — is not usually considered a parliamentary entry position. Not only is Ontario’s incoming premier devoid of parliamentary experience, on the campaign trail he exhibited little understanding of the legislative process. If anything Doug Ford seemed to revel in his relative ignorance of the workings of provincial governments. It could be a steep learning curve, and a long four years.

Quebec’s three main party leaders each have distinct strengths and weaknesses but they are anything but untested on both sides of the national assembly.

François Legault, Jean-François Lisée and Philippe Couillard all held senior portfolios in a Quebec cabinet prior to becoming leaders. They know the parliamentary ropes and understand how the national assembly interacts with Quebec’s civil society. By comparison to Ford they also know their policy files inside out.

Looking at polls that show the more conservative Coalition Avenir Québec in the lead in the province’s voting intentions, there are those who have mused about a grand Ontario/Quebec alliance against Justin Trudeau. For the most part, that’s a pipe dream disconnected from the distinct realities of the two provincial capitals.

The CAQ, the PQ and the Couillard Liberals all have bones to pick with the current federal government. But Quebec, under any party, will not have a dog in some of Ford’s anticipated big fights with Trudeau.

In contrast with Ontario and Alberta, there is not in the national assembly a party that is spoiling for a fight over the federal carbon-pricing initiative. Support for the principle of setting a floor price on carbon emissions crosses party lines. Indeed, whoever is elected premier next fall will be pressing Ford to reverse himself and remain in the current Quebec/Ontario/California cap-and-trade system.

On another front, Trudeau’s plan to lay the foundation of a national pharmacare program seems bound to hit a Ford wall at Queen’s Park. But Quebec has no quarrel with the concept of a public prescription drugs insurance plan. The province has had public insurance in place for people who do not have a private drug plan for the best part of two decades.

More often than not under Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin, the federal Liberals in power in Ottawa found it easier to get along with the Parti Québécois governments of Lucien Bouchard and Bernard Landry — despite their differences on Quebec’s political future — than with those of Mike Harris and Ernie Eves. They shared a common belief in the need for government activism.

As provincial Liberal leader Jean Charest had to spend part of his first campaign in 1998 fending off assertions that he was a Harris clone. It was not meant as a compliment. The last thing the CAQ’s Legault will want in next fall’s election is to be compared to Ford. His Liberal rivals will be sorely tempted to use Thursday’s Ontario Tory victory as a token of the risks involved in letting voter fatigue with an incumbent blind one to the shortcomings of the alternative.

It would be folly to cast the Ontario election as a dry run for next year’s federal campaign. The federal and provincial scenes are not parallel universes. But that does not mean Thursday’s outcome will not hit the morale of Trudeau’s caucus.

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It is one thing to expect the defeat of a close provincial ally and another to witness the rout that has left Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals without enough seats to be officially recognized in the legislature.

There is a federal by-election to be held in 10 days in the Liberal-held Quebec riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord. After this week’s dark Thursday for the Liberals in Ontario, Trudeau needs a win if only to keep the nervous nellies syndrome at bay on his government benches.

Chantal Hébert is a columnist based in Ottawa covering politics. Follow her on Twitter: @ChantalHbert

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