THE BIG QUESTION

Can this team finally win under Alex Smith?

An ideal system and offensive-minded coach give Smith his best

chance at succeeding for a franchise that drafted him first overall

in 2005.

Coach Jim Harbaugh’s arrival – and experience as an NFL quarterback – was enough to convince

Smith to return on a one-year,

$5 million deal. Smith took this

opportunity so seriously, he led

offseason workouts both on the

field and in the classroom during

the labor lockout.

What makes the West Coast

system so ideal for the cerebral

Smith is its detailed nature and

reliance on shorter, quicker

routes. The 49ers ran a similar

look in Smith’s rookie season

under coordinator Mike McCarthy, but now they have a bastion

of proven weapons in Frank Gore,

Vernon Davis, Braylon Edwards

and Michael Crabtree.

Smith has gone through six coordinators and two significant shoulder

injuries, and now he is on the

clock more than ever to produce a

winning campaign. If this season

doesn’t end in the playoffs, then

don’t expect the 49ers to award

him a fourth contract

3 REASONS THEY MAKE THE PLAYOFFS

1. They win the mediocre NFC West, which last year sent a 7-9 Seattle Seahawks team into the NFC playoffs.

2. Coach Jim Harbaugh’s energy, enthusiasm and overhauled schemes spark a roster cloaked with seasoned starters.

3. They score. A lot. The 49ers have not ranked among the top-20 scoring teams since Jeff Garcia, Terrell Owens and six other offensive starters left after 2003.

3 REASONS THEY DON’T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS

1. They have five road games in the Eastern Time Zone, where they’ve gone 1-21 since 2003. They’ll try bucking that trend by staying in Youngstown, Ohio, between Weeks 3 and 4 road games at Cincinnati and Philadelphia.

2. The passing game falters behind, (a) inefficient quarterbacks, (b) relatively young linemen, (c) drop-laden wide receivers, (d) all of the above, plus other familiar excuses

3. A revamped secondary is feasted upon by quarterbacks Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Josh Freeman, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger.

SCOUTING THE DIVISION

Arizona Cardinals (5-11, 4th place)

Acquiring quarterback Kevin Kolb from the Philadelphia Eagles has helped the Cardinals forget about their 2010 starting trio of Derek Anderson, Max Hall and John Skelton. Tight end Todd Heap also joined coach Ken Whisenhunt’s offense, which still revolves around wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, the NFL’s highest-paid receiver with a recent deal guaranteeing him $50 million.

The Cardinals gave up Pro Bowl cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to land Kolb, but they used the fifth-overall pick to draft promising playmaker Patrick Peterson out of LSU. A strong start could be parlayed into a surprising season, which ends with four of their last five games at home.

St. Louis Rams (7-9, 1st-place tie)

More positives are expected from quarterback Sam Bradford in his second season. His new offensive coordinator is Josh McDaniels, who parlayed that role with the New England Patriots into a dismal head-coaching start with the Denver Broncos.

Aside from veteran running back Steven Jackson, the Rams don’t offer Bradford many weapons. Staring wide receivers are likely Mike Sims-Walker, Brandon Gibson and Danny Amendola. One-time 49ers guard Harvey Dahl joins an offensive line that returns the rest of its starters.

Defensive end Chris Long, who had a sack in each game against the 49ers last season, is complemented on the pass rush by James Hall and first-round draft pick Robert Quinn.

After a Week 5 bye, the Rams play four of their next five on the road, at Green Bay, Dallas, Arizona and Cleveland.

Seattle Seahawks (7-9, 1st-place tie)

Long-time quarterback Matt Hasselbeck left for the Tennsessee Titans, and his immediate replacement is Tarvaris Jackson, with Charlie Whitehurst the top backup. New receiving targets include Sidney Rice, Jackson’s former Minnesota Vikings teammate, and tight end Zach Miller, who was the Raiders’ most consistent weapon.

Despite upsetting the New Orleans Saints to open the playoffs, the Seahawks dumped several veterans (see: linebacker Lofa Tatupu, safety Lawyer Milloy) in favor of deploying the league’s youngest group of starters.

Second-year coach Pete Carroll’s former USC-Stanford showdowns with Jim Harbaugh help spice up this NFC West rivalry. Former Raiders coach Tom Cable was brought in to rebuild an offensive line that added ex-Raiders guard RobertGalleryand two rookies on the right side: tackle James Carpenter and guard John Moffit.

DIFFERENCE MAKERS

ILB Patrick Willis: A Pro Bowl choice and fierce tackler in each of his four seasons, he’ll be asked to pressure quarterbacks more often and crank up his career sack total of 15.

LT Joe Staley: Injuries limited to nine games each of the past two seasons, including a season-ending broken leg last Nov. 14.

TE Vernon Davis: If Braylon Edwards and Michael Crabtree can stretch the field, look forDavisto have an even bigger year in the West Coast offense’s tight end-friendly scheme.

RB Frank Gore: A co-captain with Willis, Gore just got a three-year contract extension and is within 1,242 yards of 49ers all-time rushing leader Joe Perry.

SS Donte Whitner: A 2006 first-round draft pick of the Buffalo Bills, Whitner should become the secondary’s leader, especially if he adds to his paltry total of five career interceptions.

DATE TO CIRCLE

Nov. 24 at Baltimore. What’s Thanksgiving night without family? The NFL Network will play that up in this matchup between 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh and his brother, Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh. On the field, we’ll see two of this era’s best inside linebackers, Ray Lewis and Patrick Willis.