How to BRich: Ownership rates on Fan Duel week 3

By Benny11 DFS BRich11,

Let’s face it, we all want win the $120K prize for the Sunday Millions on Fan Duel this weekend. With that goal in mind, I enter a $2 line up in the Thursday NFL snap each week in order to gauge ownership levels. The Snap is the perfect proxy in my opinion because it has the exact same number of Entries as the Sunday Millions (57,471). Keep in mind that these rates will change, because thankfully Bobby Rainey is not an option again this Sunday and there are quite a few people sitting pretty with Julio and the Falcons D that are going to need to swerve onto some other plays as well. Matty Ice, Vincent Jackson, Devin Hester, Harry Douglas, both kickers, and Stephen Jackson also made a few rosters so the percentages seen here should all probably be about 10% higher Sunday. Here is a list of the guys who’s ownership rates are worth noting. Remember this is not to persuade or dissuade you from playing these guys. It’s more a guideline for you to follow when making your decisions on who to fade and who to swerve onto in order to differentiate yourself. Here’s what I noticed:

High Owned Guys

QB

Drew Brees 14.7%

Kirk Cousins 10.6%

Andrew Luck 9.1%

Tom Brady 8%

Jay Cutler 7.7%

Matt Stafford 7.7%

Aaron Rodgers 6.2%

RB

Darren Sproles 25.8%

Demarco Murray 20.6%

Giovani Bernard 16.2%

Ahmad Bradshaw 13.4%

Knile Davis 12.5%

Alfred Morris 9.4%

Arian Foster 8.4%

Lesean McCoy 7.3%

Steven Ridley 7.1%

WR

Calvin Johnson 27.5%

Julian Edelman 23.8%

Jordy Nelson 20.6%

Brandon Marshall 13.9%

Jeremy Maclin 11.9%

Golden Tate 11.2%

Steve Smith 9.8%

Mike Wallace 9.4%

Cordarelle Patterson 9%

Reggie Cobb 8.8%

Andre Johnson 7.8%

Sammy Watkins 7.7%

TE

Jimmy Graham 21%

Antonio Gates 11.3%

Zac Ertz 9.7%

Niles Paul 9%

Martellus Bennett 6.5%

Greg Olsen 6.4%

Delanie Walker 6.1%

Defense

Patriots 21.5%

Texans 15.9%

Saints 10.4%

Analysis

There seems to be a lot of points chasing going on this weekend and in some cases it is warranted and in others I’m not so sure. Brees and Graham is the most used Combo by far, but there’s a good deal of Graham on other teams sans Brees as well. He had a monster game last week and people are expecting him to do it again Sunday, so despite his ownership level he is a FADE at your own risk. Davis is interesting as everyone is hopping on the bandwagon after his work last week in relief of Jamal Charles. Only problem is Charles is practicing today and those owners will have to sweat out whether or not he plays. Stafford being a little more owned the Rodgers is interesting to me. I know Vegas has Lions as the favorite, but I like Rodgers as the road dog to throw the ball more often and have the bigger game. The percentages are not that far off and it is the highest O/U of the week and one of the closest spreads so we should see some scoring as evidenced by Jordy and Calvin being two of the top owned WRs. Edelman is intersting at that rate on a half PPR site as well. He has been Brady’s go to target, but I would not put him in the Megatron and Jordy category just yet. I do not see Kirk Cousins as having a 30+ point upside for a GPP. I think at his price he is a quality cash game play, but I would not bet on him being the top QB this weekend and that is pretty much what you need to win a GPP. Lastly the Pats D at 21.5% seems a ittle out of whack. I will always fade the highest owned Defense, because I’m fairly confident that someone else will score more points. Defense is tough to predict and I’m not sure why people are so high in them.

Low Owned Guys

QB

Nick Foles 3.8%

Phillip Rivers 2.7%

PEYTON MANNING 1.9%

Tony Romo 1.9%

Andy Dalton 1.4%

Russell Wilson 1.4%

Ryan Tannehill 1.2%

RB

Khiry Robinson 5.7%

Terrence West 4.5%

Shane Vereen 3%

Matt Forte 3%

Zac Stacy 2.3%

Marshawn Lynch 2.1%

Lamar Miller 2%

Bernard Pierce 2%

Eddie Lacy 1.4%

Donald Brown 1..5%

Danny Woodhead 1.3%

Darren McFadden 0.4%

WR

TY Hilton 4.6%

Andrew Hawkins 4.1%

Alshon Jefferies 2.9%

Wes Welker 2.2%

Emmanuel Sanders 2.2%

Marcus Wheaton 1.7%

DEMARYUS THOMAS 1.6%

Victor Cruz 1.3%

Michael Floyd 0.6%

TE

Larry Donnell 4.4%

JULIUS THOMAS 3.8%

Owen Daniels 2%

Dennis Pitta 1.7%

Jared Cook 1.3%

Defense

Panthers 4.2%

Cowboys 3.6%

Lions 1.5%

Dolphins 1.5%

Seahawks 1%

Eagles 0.7%

Analysis

First thing that jumps off the page is you can stack the Broncos this week and be contrarian. I realize Seattle is a great defense and a really tough place to play, but you will not see Peyton and Demaryus under 2% or Julius under 4% again for the rest of the season barring injury. None of them are cheap which I think contributes to the low rates, but if they do hit and you have them it just about guarantees you a cash. Forte at 3% I can understand going up against the #1 ranked Jets Rush defense. I still think he gets value on PPR sites, because the Bears should be throwing all over the Jets horrible secondary. That’s why if Alshon Jefferies is healthy enough he could make a great sneaky play at under 3% as the Jets bracket Brandon Marshall to try and contain him. at his price, I was expecting to see more love for Khiry Robinson. Judging by the Brees and Graham ownership I think people are thinking that Saints are going to throw a lot Sunday, but I still feel that Khiry will get a big workload. If you agree and are fading Brees/Graham it should differentiate you if he hits. Hopefully he does not pull a Bobby Rainey. TE is interesting to me this week. I have no problem using Donnell at a low price with good production. He is $100 cheaper then Niles Paul and Paul is the flavor of the week, so most people will pass over Larry if that is the salary range they are looking to spend down there. He has been a huge part of the offense as Eli looks panicked and his eyes dart to Donnell first. Pitta being lower owned then his teammate Owen Daniels is interesting. He is a little banged up so I can only assume people think he may sit. Pitta is superior to Daniels if all other things are equal. Jared Cook is the most interesting TE to me. We are already hearing rumblings that

Dallas can not defend the TE as evidenced by the torching TEs have given them to date. Cook is not a star by any means, but he could be a sneaky good option at low ownership that produces a nice stat line. Lastly, I like Carolina’s Defense more then the 4% ownership respect they are getting. I could easily leave the rest of the Ds on that list where they are, but the Panthers intrigue me as a low owned play to consider.

THE TAKEAWAY

People are chasing performance again and it is no surprise. I think Peyton and his WR are worth consideration and so is Nick Foles who plays in the second highest O/U game this week. Rodgers and Stafford are reasonable considering that Vegas line as well, but remember that those WR for them are very popular so even if they have monster games, there’s gonna be a lot of company in the standings with them. There’s quite a few low owned, low priced RB punts as well. Whih of them will hit is anyone’s guess, but you need some exposure to them in case they do. Low Owned, Low cost guys like Sproles and Bradshaw last week helped push some guys to the top of the leader boards. Remember that saving there is the only way to get the Calvin johnson, Jordy Nelson, Jimmy Graham type salaries in your line up if you want to spend up at TE and WR.

Keep in mind that these numbers are only a guideline to give you an idea of where others are at. Just because a guy is high owned does not make him an automatic fade and just because a guy is low owned does not make him a good play. There’s certain high owned guys you simply can not fade and expect to make up those points. The key is figuring out which guys you can safely fade for a lower owned player at that position without taking on too much risk. Doing so and using the extra money saved to pay up where you think you can not fade is how you build winning line ups. I wish I had the answers for you on who to play and who not to, but if I did then I would be in possession of Dean’s fabled Almanac and I would already be winning “ALL THE MONEY”. Good luck Grinders, hope you enjoy reading this as much as I did putting it together. Let’s all go win this weekend.