Things suck. Who’s fault is it?

Part 1: The Knives Are Out

The Vancouver Whitecaps have been Chivas USA levels of bad in 2019. People are pissed. As they should be. In the words of the late great Jason Botchford “if outrage ends, what is life?” This outrage has manifested itself against head coach Marc Dos Santos. Not so much by anyone who actually covers the team but there is a sort of popular resistance forming in certain corners of the internet. To an extent, I can’t blame them. The Whitecaps are on pace for a pathetic 34 goals and 33 points. They are the first team since Chivas USA to have the most shots against and the fewest shots for. The Whitecaps have one of the lowest budgets in the league but it’s not like Dos Santos has shown a particular knack for getting more out of the group of players than you’d expect.

There are some ways in which the team under Dos Santos has operated that i’m not wild about. The signing of, and subsequent responsibility given too, Andy Rose is a key example. It was very obvious to anyone who looked at any numbers or had watched him play in Seattle that he wasn’t going to be very good. But he was signed and on occasion has worn the captain’s armband. You can say Rose was just a depth piece but I think his signing raises some concerns about what this coaching staff values when they are evaluating players. Similarly the signings of Jon Erice and Lucas Venuto to contracts that far exceeded their actual value is troubling. I assume Dos Santos isn’t the one who negotiates the contracts, after all he isn’t a lawyer, but surely they check in with him since player salaries matter so much in a salary cap league (if either of these assumptions is untrue that would be very problematic).

I also don’t like how slow he’s been to integrate academy players. I don’t know how you can say you’re trying to win every game but play Andy Rose and PC ahead of Norman, Baldisimo, Mukumbilwa, etc. In fairness the approach of “making them earn it” seems to have worked well for Theo Bair, but nobody seems to be asking what the underperforming senior players are doing to earn their place in the first team.

Furthermore there is the matter of Vancouver’s unceremonious exit from the Voyageurs’ cup. You can’t blame that on low spending because the CPL salary cap is less than Fredy Montero’s entire salary. The performance was pathetic and the players not getting up for a game like that does fall on the coach.

Style wise the team has been pretty ugly. Indeed there doesn’t seem to be much of a style other than “oh shit, these players aren’t good enough to play the way we want to so let’s just try and limit the damage until next season.”

Part 2: Putting our Knives Away For The Time Being. Maybe to be Picked up Again Later, Maybe Not

Everything written above is true. You might decide, after reading this article (and not just scrolling to the bottom to leave a comment about confidence scams or whatever), that it’s enough that Dos Santos should be fired. But, like in the famous analogy where the blind men are fondling an elephant, I think the above facts only represent a portion of the truth.

The Vancouver Whitecaps entered MLS when I was 12 years old. I was in grade 7. Next May I will be 22 and, depending on how my schedule shakes out, may have graduated with a BA in History. In that time the Whitecaps have had 5 managers, 14 designated players, and one playoff win. So I think it’s pertinent to ask what structural impediments may have been in place that prevented Marc Dos Santos, a guy who’s won everywhere he’s been before and received near universal praise from everyone he’s ever worked with, from being successful in Vancouver.

First and foremost amongst these structural impediments is the budget. The Whitecaps have always been reticent to pay transfer fees or invest in players with high wages. But up until last season they did at least have a payroll in the top half of the league. People have been calling them cheap forever but 2019 is by far the cheapest they’ve ever been. This season the Whitecaps have the lowest payroll they have ever had relative to the rest of the league. They are the only team without any players earning over $1,000,000, if it weren’t for the salary of Anthony Blondell they’d have the lowest payroll in the league, and five players in the past two years have been bought for transfer fees greater than Vancouver’s entire 2019 payroll. This is the most disadvantaged a Whitecaps manager has ever been financially in MLS, relative to the wages and transfer fees being thrown around by the rest of the league.

But, as we discussed above, it’s not like the low budget has been spent super well. I would argue that the wages now more accurately reflect who the best players in the squad are compared to previous seasons but there is undeniably some waste. There are also some other teams with low budgets who are having success. Let’s have a look at them, shall we?

The first team people always go to is San Jose. With just 1.1 million more in salary the Earthquakes have managed a huge turnaround from a disappointing last place season without major squad turnover. The man credited for this turn around is Matias Almeyda, San Jose’s new head coach. The success of Almeyda is usually used as a cudgel to beat the struggling Whitecaps. “If we’d just hired a big name coach like him” the reasoning goes “then we would have been able to turn things around just like San Jose did.” Maybe that’s true. Maybe Almeyda would have the Whitecaps fighting for a playoff spot. After all his past success came at a much higher level than Dos Santos’. But I wonder, friends, if maybe San Jose did something a little before getting Almeyda that may have set him up for success. Some sort of change to the structure of the club perhaps? Let’s take a trip over to their website to learn more!

Interesting. They hired someone in the front office with a lot of experience to help give the club vision and structure rather than just handing a new manager all of the responsibility and saying “good luck.” Fascinating. I wonder too, if perhaps Almeyda has access to some other resources that help him succeed that Dos Santos might not.

Keep in mind that although San Jose didn’t overturn their roster in the same way the Whitecaps did they still made some important editions like Espinoza, Judson, and Vera, who helped the players they already had to reach their full potential.

Hmm, do the Whitecaps have any of these things? I’ll save you the trouble, no they do not! In fact until extremely recently they had no scouts at all.

But maybe Almeyda is the glue that holds that together. Maybe you still need to get a really top manager to make that structure work. Let’s look at another example. One of my favourites, the Philadelphia Union.

Chart comparing payroll with points per game via @AnalysisEvolved. Philadelphia has 18 more points than Vancouver and 25 more goals while only spending 900k more. #VWFC #MLS pic.twitter.com/CmdcPvt1tw — Caleb Wilkins (@wilkins_caleb24) August 10, 2019

for the price of Montero+50K, Philidelphia have Pryzbylko, Picault and Monteiro who have scored 8x the number of open play goals #VWFC #MLS — Caleb Wilkins (@wilkins_caleb24) August 10, 2019

Philadelphia are top of the Eastern conference ahead of high spending teams like Atlanta United and the underlying metrics suggest that luck has nothing to do with it (indeed the Union may have been a little unlucky). Who is the managerial genius at the head of this team. It’s Jim Curtain! He’s younger than Dos Santos, the Philadelphia job is his first and only head coaching job, and his career winning percentage is lower than Dos Santos’ was doing into this season. So what happened that lead to this huge turn around? Did Curtain suddenly become a genius in both recruitment and managing? Let’s ask Statsbomb.com writer Caleb Shreve. Shreve writes in his article entitled the unlikely success story of the Philadelphia Union:

“It’s easy to look at the success Atlanta and LAFC have had and say that if teams would just spend money they’d be better (and owners should spend more money), but in MLS, in large part because of the restrictive salary cap, teams can be competitive on a smaller budget if they prioritize youth development, make intelligent tactical choices, and recruit with the needs of their system in mind...the Union were not supposed to be on top of the Eastern Conference two thirds of the way through the season. They entered the year with a new Sporting Director, Ernst Tanner; a lame-duck coach, Jim Curtin; and middling expectations.”

Shreve goes on to discuss how Philadelphia has made tactical changes that allow them to control the game without compromising on defensive stability, and how their academy system is finally starting to bear fruit. It’s a really good article, you should read it. But for our purposes I want to narrow in on the section about recruitment.

“While the Fabian signing has not yet met expectations, Tanner has brought some flair to the Union’s recruitment that was previously lacking. He’s brought in players from second and third division in Germany, a striker from the Chilean league, and a midfielder from Ligue 1. Every player has been at least a spot starter, and none of them have performed significantly below expectations when on the field.”

“The least heralded player Tanner brought in has been the most important. Kai Wagner, purchased from the Wurzburger Kickers in the 3.Liga, has been one of the best left backs in MLS. The Union’s system is a great example of how much responsibility can be put on the fullback in the modern game...Wagner is the kind of low risk-high upside acquisition that budget conscientious MLS teams should make more often.”

Interesting indeed. The Union brought in a Sporting Director who used his connections to help a coach find players who’s value wasn’t properly appreciated by the market. Colour me shocked. Are there any other resources Jim Curtain might have that Dos Santos might not?

Do the Whitecaps have any of these thi...AHAHA of course they bloody don’t! I don’t know about you but i’m starting to notice a patter. But once is happenstance, twice is a coincidence and all that. The other two teams who are over performing what their payroll suggests they should be the most are Minnesota United and RSL. Do they maybe have some resources tha...OH COME ON MAN, OF COURSE THEY DO!

Minnesota is a little light on the technical side but they do at least have a sporting director and a director of player personnel. RSL, in addition to an extra 2 million dollars in payroll compared to the ‘Caps, has a general manager and a director of scouting.

In terms of technical staff outside of the coaches the Whitecaps have a couple of video analysts and that’s it. They recently hired some scouts but they weren’t in place while the majority of the squad was being built. I think it’s at least a bit noteworthy that the two signings which have been made since they have been in place, Michaell Chirinios and Tosaint Ricketts have both looked pretty good so far.

Part 3: So, About That Rebuild

One of the things Dos Santos takes the most flack for is that he got rid of so many players and that not all of the players he brought in have been a success. To me this is one of the dumbest possible takes you could have on the Whitecaps. It’s up there in the top 4 bad Whitecaps takes of 2019. The list goes something like this:

Crepeau is a USL quality keeper- Expert The Whitecaps midfield will be good- Me There is no way the Whitecaps will loose to Cavalry- Me again The Whitecaps would be better if they hadn’t got rid of so many players- Experts and fans alike

Let’s review shall we? Dos Santos had no choice on the departure of Alphonso Davies who had already been sold. Kendall Waston and Cristian Techera both asked to leave to pursue other opportunities so there wasn’t much choice there either. This leaves Kei Kamara who most people agree should have been retained and then not much else. Are you seriously going to look me in the eye and tell me this team would be better with Brek Shea, Nicolas Mezquida and/or Sean Franklin in it? Kamara probably would have improved things a bit but the real problem of the 2019 team has been in the midfield and he wouldn’t have been any help there. Maybe Aly Ghazal could have made a difference? But the biggest problems with the Whitecaps’ midfield have been that they are too slow to press, not good enough at carrying the ball forward and don’t play enough balls into the final 3rd. Not exactly things that were in Ghazal’s wheelhouse. The fact of the matter is that, aside from Kamara, none of the players that Dos Santos let go would have made much of a difference.

So looking back at everything we’ve discussed the construction of the squad makes a lot more sense. You had a manager in his first head coaching job in MLS who had no support structure, no foundational players on which to build (except 34 year old Kei Kamara), bafflingly no money despite the sale of Alphonso Davies, and four months to put a team together.

Dos Santos hasn’t really over-performed what he’s been given but what he’s been given is a pittance. He’s been disadvantaged in almost every way a manager could possibly be. He’s been sent into a gun fight with a knife and one hand tied behind his back. You may decide that he should really be making better use of his knife but it’s important to recognize that’s the situation.

Part 4: But Wait Caleb, You Hypocritical Swine, You Argued that Carl Robinson Should be Fired Last Year and He Did Better With Similar Structural Impediments! Why Didn’t he get Such a Nuanced Defence!?

In addition to the popular distaste for Dos Santos there has also been a growing nostalgia for Carl Robinson. The idea being that since this is pretty much the worst the Whitecaps have done in the MLS era that we were too harsh on Robinson and actually he was making the most of what he had. Ahead of writing this article I looked back on my article where I argued that the time had come for a change in management. Honestly, I think I was a little too harsh in some ways. We have learned a lot about how the Whitecaps operate this season and knowing what I know now I probably would have been a little more forgiving. But you know what else? I still agree with most of it. Here are a few important reasons why the situation with Robinson and the current one with Dos Santos are very different.

In Robinson’s first year as the head coach he had the 5th highest payroll in the league and still needed a win on the last day to make the playoffs. I would argue that, due to the chaotic nature of the situation when he took over he should be given a pass for 2014. However if the standard we’re going by is the coach should be judged by what the players do on the field and no other factors should ever be taken into account then surely the 2014 season has to be seen as a disaster. It is after all a much bigger underperformance compared to the club’s payroll than what Dos Santos is currently doing. Robinson had a payroll that was in the top half of the league every single year except his last in charge. True, he didn’t have as much money available for transfer fees as other managers but, going back to our knife in a gun fight analogy, Robinson did at least have a gun even if it was smaller than some of the other ones. Despite his reputation for making the most of a small budget, Robinson actually finished below teams with a lower payroll more times than he finished above teams with a higher payroll. While it’s true that Robinson faced many of the structural challenges outlined above, he never really tried to change them (at least not publicly). His contract was renewed twice while he was manager. These seem like perfect opportunities to say “ok guys, I’ve accomplished some decent things in my time here but if i’m going to be back I need more support. If I get a proper scouting department I know I can lead this club to greatness.” But there is no evidence anything like that ever happened. Dos Santos, in contrast, has been very publicly pushing for structural improvements from day one, even with rumblings that the club was resistant to his request that they hire a technical director. Robinson had 5 years to try and build something and after 2015 things were more or less straight downhill. He achieved a high finish in 2017 but this was due to an incredible degree of luck. Dos Santos has had less than a year. Judging them on the same rubric is nonsensical.

Conclusions:

Next season Dos Santos will have more time to work on assembling the team, scouts in place and (based on reports of the players they’ve tried to sign) maybe even a bit more money to work with. If next season is the same as this one he should probably be fired. It may prove that he just isn’t ready for this challenge at this stage in his career. But pinning all of the struggles in 2019 on him is missing a huge and vital part of the picture. The Whitecaps for the past 10 years have put all of the duties of running the first team which other teams divide amongst several specialists on the shoulders of one person. This arrangement sets managers up to fail, or at least to finish exactly where their payroll suggests they should. If you think firing the coach is going to significantly change that then i’m sorry but I think you’re kidding yourself.

Are there coaches who could do a bit better than MDS has this season? Sure. Everyone is second choice to someone. But i’ve got news for you, fellas (and lasses), those coaches aren’t coming. The Whitecaps have always selected managers who are young and have done well at lower levels. This way if they are successful then the front office were geniuses for appointing them. If they fail then the manager just wasn’t ready for the challenge. Every move the front office has made for the past 10 years has been about preserving their own power. Someone like Vancouver resident Carlo Ancelotti would be a threat to that. The only reason we are seeing any movement on that front is because the resentment of the fans is making the situation untenable. So if MDS is out then his replacement will almost certainly be someone like him.

With all this in mind, I am happy to give him another year. You may decide that you are not. But please consider the full picture first. Consider if your anger is being directed in the right place.

Is Marc Dos Santos “the man?” That’s missing the point. The fact that there is a “man” in the first place is the problem. There need to be several men, and maybe some women (Atlanta United’s head of recruitment, who helped Tata Martino build the seemingly unstoppable juggernaut after only two years, is Lucy Rushton) who give the club a vision and put managers in a position to succeed.