There’s been a running theme recently on Unionist social media.

It’s the claim that the No vote in 2014 was an anomaly – a rare victory of progressive, internationalist, inclusive politics over the anti-establishment, isolationist, separatist tone that won out in the EU referendum and now the election of Donald Trump.

This was the case back even before and just after the independence referendum, where the Yes movement was being compared to the far-right populist movements of England, France, and the Netherlands:

Of course, the alternative view is rather simpler – that perhaps the forces that won the EU referendum and 2016 presidency also won the independence referendum.

(WARNING: While I’m not going to reproduce any of the material or quotes from some of the individuals or groups listed below on the site, I will be including archived links. While I disagree with many of the views to the most profound degree, neither do I wish to pretend they do not exist: I also want to provide sources for my conclusion as to where they stand on any of the three campaigns. Keep this in mind before you click.)

Right to far-right: Gerry Gunster, (the US analyst who ran the Leave campaign); Arron Banks, (major UKIP donor & co-chair of Leave.EU); Donald Trump (US President-Elect); Nigel Farage (former UKIP leader); Andy Wigmore, (major UKIP donor & Director of Communications for Leave.eu); and Raheem Kassam, (UKIP leadership hopeful & Breitbart London Editor in Chief).

Let’s have a look at some of the individuals or organisations who were involved with, or supportive of, the winning side in the Scottish independence referendum, the EU referendum, and the Donald Trump presidential campaign.

Blood & Honour

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

Breitbart News

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

Britain First

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

British Democratic Party

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

British National Party

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

Candour Magazine

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

Philip Davies MP

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

Michael Fabricant MP

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

Nigel Farage

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

George Galloway

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

Nick Griffin

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

Liberty GB

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

Eddy Morrison (National Front/BNP/others)

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump: SUPPORTIVE

National Action

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

National Front

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

Jacob Rees-Mogg MP

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

Tommy Robinson (Former leader, EDL)

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

Scottish Defence League

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

Iain Duncan Smith MP

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

Donald Trump

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

UKIP

Scottish independence: NO

EU membership: LEAVE

Trump for President: SUPPORTIVE

Now, it’d be unfair to tarnish the anti-independence movement by association with the above organisations and individuals (not that such unfairness ever stopped No supporters from doing just that to Scottish independence supporters, of course).

After all, plenty of professed left-wing, socialist, anti-war folk supported No, Leave, and Trump – George Galloway being the most infamous example. Likewise, there are plenty of people who support only one or two of the above, and found themselves on the losing side of at least one referendum or election.

Of course not every No/Leave/Trump supporter is a racist, or fascist, any more than every Yes/Remain/Clinton supporter was uniquely saintly: the vast majority of people are reasonable, thinking, compassionate human beings who voted they way they did because they thought it was best for them, their family, and their future.

The key difference is that those people have no control over the direction of what happens next. We aren’t getting Super-Devo-Plus-Max, because the parties & individuals interested in such a settlement have no power or opportunity to deliver it. We’re not getting a “Lexit,” because the left-wing Leave advocates have no power in the UK or Scottish Governments. Even in his first few days as President Elect, the likelihood of a tempered Trump is dropping by the day.

(Which is not to say there are no anti-EU, pro-Trump individuals who also advocate Scottish independence: tons of Eurosceptics like Arron Banks, Paul Joseph Watson, and others seemed perfectly fine with it, even encouraging, when it was perceived as bad news for the EU or a perceived soft UK, or they just wanted rid of subsidy-junkie Scotland. On the other hand, I doubt Jim Sillars is a big Trump fan despite advocating a Leave vote.)

The people and organisations listed above are 3 for 3. They got every result they wanted. Look at the post-indyref UK Government: it sure isn’t the government Scotland or progressives in England, Wales, & Northern Ireland voted for. Look at the post-EUref UK cabinet: full of Brexiters and the most right-wing elements of the party. The US cabinet is the same story, amplified on an American scale.

Either Blair MacDougall, Ian Smart, and others really, truly believe that the movement for Scottish independence really is the same as the rhetoric which fuelled a Leave vote in the UK and Trump in the USA, or they don’t and just lie about it. And let’s be unflinchingly clear: even the “moderates” in the “mainstream” parties, not to mention the official No campaign, were not above using their dog-whistle language.

Better Together preyed on fears of “kith and kin” becoming “foreigners”, appealed to shared “bloodlines” and “ethnicity”, and talked of the turmoil of “borders” and the loss of “our land”. Then their parties and papers continued it during the general election, with immigration mugs and endless poisonous headlines about refugees.

They used “foreign” as if it was a curse, an affliction, an undesirable trait – which is exactly what the far-right believes. And now they have the gall to act surprised at the results, and utterly fail to see the same forces at work across the ocean.

And even after the Brexit vote they haven’t learned a thing.

Twiterstorm (sic) tonight. Apparently many Nats don’t undersatand (sic) that “independence” would mean that their English realtives (sic) would be foreigners.

– Alex Gallagher, 6th October 2016 enjoying SNP supporters on my timeline arguing that if we were independent, the English wouldn’t be foreigners

– The UK’s Greatest Economist, 6th October 2016 SNP would turn English people living in Scotland into foreigners in their own country. Of course it’s uncomfortable for them

– Ruth Davidson’s favourite blogger, 15th October 2016

A No vote didn’t stop the forces who were victorious this year. In fact, in 2014 the No campaign rode that tide to victory – indeed, spurred it on with the evocation of its toxic language – because preserving the United Kingdom was worth any cost. Even if it meant turning a blind eye to the deluge looming darkly over the horizon.