Australia has experienced a sudden outbreak of ideological moderation. Meanwhile, the voices of reaction are getting louder and less restrained, writes Michael Bradley.

Australia Day used to be just a day off. It seemed quintessentially Australian that many Australians had no idea what it signified and the rest of us didn't care.

That comfortable torpor has gone; Australia Day is now another proxy in the increasingly frenzied war over our national identity.

I suspect that, from Malcolm Turnbull's perspective, it's becoming a little too exciting a time to be Australian. The so-called culture wars, which began under John Howard and were re-ignited by Tony Abbott and his support crew, have truly exploded now.

They were always not really about culture but ideology. Culture is just the net result of our behaviours, which are in turn how we express our values. In a national context, what that looks like depends very much on the perspective from which you view it.

Ideology, by contrast, seeks to impose values, grown from the bedrock of inflexible principles. The war of competing ideologies in which we find ourselves is that between the forces of progression and reaction. Calling those forces "left" and "right" misleads, because this isn't about politics. After all, the nominal leaders of the two forces, Turnbull and Abbott, are both "liberals".

This fight over history and destiny has many faces; it reaches into politics, but with equal import into economics, the arts, law, social convention and human rights. The forces of progress pin their arguments on the principles of equality and humanity; that is, the notion that we are all truly equal, and the ideal that we will treat each other exactly as we would be treated ourselves.

Countering this, the forces of reaction (calling them conservatives is also apt to mislead, because they don't always seek to conserve and their preferences are often quite radical) engage a more complex array of truths, some of which conflict. The principle of personal freedom and responsibility underpins much of the reactionary agenda, such as gun rights and the battle against political correctness. But much else - such as preservation of "traditional" marriage - comes from truths which have been revealed (in that case, by God) and which are antithetical to personal freedom. Other banners of the reactive army, such as defence of the Australian way of life from malign influences like Islam, are rooted in much more nebulous truths altogether.

Progressives are prone to confused logic too, of course. Some of the recent debates over what it's not OK to say and who isn't allowed to say it have been less than edifying. However, progressives are unmistakably in the ascendancy at the moment, with a force that future historians may find surprising given how recently the Abbott era came to an end. All eight state and territory premiers and chief ministers, together with the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader, have come out as republicans. Most of our leaders are pro-marriage equality. The voices of moderation, inclusiveness and tolerance of diversity are particularly loud right now, exemplified by the elevation of David Morrison as Australian of the Year.

Tony Abbott has chosen to align himself with a gathering of the American far right. ( AAP: Mick Tsikas )

Morrison presents a particularly problematic challenge to reactionaries. He is male, white, Anglo, Christian, a 37-year-Army veteran, for God's sake, and there he is speaking in fiercely direct words about his priorities - to address domestic violence, promote gender equality and make Australia a republic. Nothing about defending traditional family values and the good name of the military, or promoting the values of mateship and the ANZAC legend. He didn't even mention strong borders.

Perhaps this is "the final nail in the coffin" for the "politically correct joke" the Australian of the Year award has now become, according to the Daily Telegraph. But that is a pretty hard line to run on a former Chief of the Army. He's not even gay. Give it up guys, this hero is unassailable.

It's no wonder the reactionaries are getting a little frothy. But they're not just reacting to a sudden loss of power. Their agenda is permanent, and they don't give up. They also know that they can regain the lead as fast as it went away.

Contrast Australia with the USA. There, a progressive President will be followed by an election which could well see a socialist populist (Bernie Sanders) pitched against a fascist populist (Trump) or Ted Cruz, who has just entered the Australian political debate with this observation on the Howard Government's gun buyback program: "After Australia did that, the rate of sexual assaults, the rate of rapes, went up significantly, because women were unable to defend themselves."

Sure, that's 100 per cent wrong and pretty weird, but he might be the next leader of a nation which has a stronger tradition of secular, human rights based governance than we do. Anyway, happy coincidence that Cruz should intervene in our politics the same day that Tony Abbott announced he'll soon be inflicting himself on America. Abbott will be speaking to his new best friends at the Alliance Defending Freedom, the organisation pledged among other things to defending anti-gay laws throughout the world.

Before I am accused of gratuitous Abbott-bashing, let me say two things. First, he's the one who's freely chosen to align himself with a gathering of the American far right. More importantly, he's the first current or former Australian Prime Minister to do anything of the kind. As the freshly minted poster child of the reactionary movement in Australia, his choices of actions and words have deep significance.

It feels very much like a gathering storm, this current convergence. We have a sudden outbreak of ideological moderation in the Australian political and social debate, so strong that the republic is squarely back on the agenda, it's finally starting to become socially unacceptable to bash women, and our progressively liberal Prime Minister is looking a bit uncomfortably shabby in his non-enthusiasm for pushing actual progressive reform.

At the same time, the voices of reaction are getting louder and less restrained. Remember their demand that marriage equality be put to the people so the silent majority can vote it down? Eric Abetz now declares that he may not abide by the outcome of the plebiscite if it doesn't go his way. Thanks, Eric, for yet another inspired contribution to the nation's moral wellbeing.

Eric and friends are easy meat for a laugh. They're also deadly serious and entrenched in society, here just as much as the US. They wield power and they fight hard. Maybe it's correct to say that they're getting louder because they're losing, but I'm not so sure. I do know that progress towards equality always wins in the end, but there are a lot of dark roads down which we might yet travel before we get there.

Whether Australia Day means something or nothing, a day of celebration or shame, we could usefully follow David Morrison's lead this year and reflect on which way we're heading.

Michael Bradley is the managing partner of Sydney law firm Marque Lawyers, and he writes a weekly column for The Drum. He tweets at @marquelawyers.