Eastern Michigan Eagles Head coach: Chris Creighton (22-40, sixth year) 2018 record and S&P+ ranking: 7-6 (86th) Projected 2019 record and S&P+ ranking: 7-5 (96th) Five key points: After winning more than four games in a season just once in 20 years, EMU has done it three straight times. Creighton deserves a damn statue for that. Still, tons of close losses have held the Eagles back over the last two years and cost them a division title. The offense returns a dynamic QB in Mike Glass III and a couple of explosive receivers. Can the run game actually produce something? The defense returns the best safety duo in the conference but is replacing all of its front-six play-makers with JUCO transfers. Not great. The schedule features five games projected within a touchdown. If the Eagles find their close-game good karma again, an eight- or nine-win season is on the table.

He took Ottawa to the NAIA playoffs, took Wabash to the Division III quarterfinals, and won two conference titles at Drake. When Creighton took the job that no one else wanted in 2014, he had already proved he could build steady programs at the lower levels.

When EMU hired Creighton, I wrote this:

Since going 7-3-1 in 1989, EMU has finished with a winning record just once (6-5 in 1995). Rick Rasnick won 20 games in five years. Jeff Woodruff won 11 in four. Jeff Genyk won 16 in five. Ron English won 11 in most of five. Creighton wasn’t a sexy hire, but EMU isn’t going to make a sexy hire. He wanted the job, which made him attractive, and if nothing else he has shown that he can unearth interesting talent in less-than-fertile areas. And he boasts more head coaching experience than most realistic EMU candidates. I’m intrigued.

Somehow, a school that never wins managed to land a proven winner, even if it required them to look pretty far down the totem pole.

And guess what: after one bowl in 40 years, EMU’s been to two in three. After winning more than four games just once in 20 seasons, the Eagles have done so for three straight. After spending a lot of time as the There Are Too Many Teams in FBS poster child, this program has a pulse. (It’s also still not making a lot of money, and there are still probably too many teams in FBS, but go with it.)

Now just imagine what EMU could do if it could figure out how to win some more close games.

In 2016, the Eagles rode a string of good fortune to their first bowl since 1987. They ranked 97th in S&P+, but they went 5-1 in one-possession finishes to go 7-5.

They’ve been paying for that ever since. After beating Rutgers on a last-second field goal in 2017, they lost six games in a row, all by seven or fewer points. They rallied to finish 5-7, and their S&P+ ranking improved to 90th, but then they started 2018 with another Big Ten upset (20-19 over Purdue this time) and another close-game losing streak: four games, by a total of 16 points.

The rally began earlier this time, though.

They blew a big lead against Toledo but survived, then they beat Ball State to get back to 4-4. After a loss to Army, they ripped off three straight wins to again hit 7-5. A double-overtime loss to NIU, in which they created more scoring opportunities than the Huskies but couldn’t convert enough of them, cost them their first MAC West title. They lost an incredible Camellia Bowl to Georgia Southern, but they had made it back to the postseason, and they had improved again on paper (86th).

There’s plenty of reason to think the rise can continue, but 2019 will be pretty tricky. EMU returns an exciting quarterback (Mike Glass III, who replaced primary QB Tyler Wiegers for much of the season), most of its receiving corps, and some key members from a secondary that ranked first in FBS passing marginal efficiency.

But both lines are getting overhauled. That the passing game and secondary are senior-heavy means there could be a drop-off next year ... and the trench situation must be addressed to avoid one this year.

Then again, Creighton has signed more three-star prospects (18, per the 247Sports Composite) in the last two years than in the previous four (17). The talent level and depth are rising, and maybe there’s less reason to fear departures.

Creighton has crafted a viable team. In Ypsilanti. That’s reason for celebration, as is the fact that he could continue adding bricks to the factory walls.

Related The 2018 advanced college football stats glossary

Offense

That EMU’s offensive radar looks like an exploding firework is probably apt. The Eagles were inconsistent but capable of randomly catching back up.

Their offensive percentile performances ranged from 71 percent or higher six times to 21 percent or lower four times. And in the four games in which Glass saw the most action, the percentiles were 67, 32, 16, and 88. Quite the roller coaster.

Glass overtook Wiegers only to deal with injury issues. He was far more mobile than Wiegers, and while his completion rate (61.5 percent) was lower than Wieger’s (64.8), his per-pass efficiency was higher, and he developed a thrilling rapport with the speedy Arthur Jackson III. In Glass’ four primary games, Jackson caught 14 passes for 272 yards (19.4 per catch) and four touchdowns; in the other nine games, he had 32 for 320 yards (10.0) and one score.

Jackson’s development will be key because while EMU loses only one primary receiver, it was the primary receiver, slot man Blake Banham. Banham’s 2018 backup, Line Latu, outdid Banham on a per-target basis (10.3 yards per target to 9.0), but we’ll see if he can maintain that with more targets.

There was more of a vertical aspect to EMU’s offense when Glass was behind center. He gave a boost to the run game, too, by averaging 7.5 yards per non-sack carry. Unfortunately, that was about the only pizzazz the run game could produce. Aside from a late burst by since-departed Ian Eriksen, the Eagles were one-dimensional, ranking 112th in rushing marginal efficiency. For a team that, under coordinator Aaron Keen, has strived for run-pass balance, that was a drag.

It appears running back Shaq Vann will return. That’s a good thing, at least from a sentimental standpoint. He was the bright spot of EMU’s last awful team — he averaged 5.9 yards per carry as a freshman in 2015, and he started 2016 on fire, too, gaining 166 yards in 21 carries before he was lost to injury. Since his return in 2017, he’s averaged only 4.5 yards per carry. Only 39 percent of his carries gained four or more yards last season.

With Eriksen gone, a spot could either go to a career backup (junior Willie Parker or senior Breck Turner) or, perhaps preferably, a youngster like redshirt freshman Karmi Mackey or incoming three-stars John Branham Jr. or Darius Boone. A product of Columbus, Ohio, Branham is EMU’s most-touted recruit since the immortal Brogan Roback.

If you have to rebuild your line, there’s consolation in having to rebuild a bad one. EMU must replace four linemen who had combined for 96 career starts, but the Eagles ranked in the triple digits in most line stats. Third-team all-conference tackle Steve Nielsen does return, as do two others (sophomore Sidy Sow and junior Jake Donnellon) who have combined for 18 starts. Some recent three-stars could enter the rotation sooner than later. There’s size here (Nielson is 6’6, 318, and Sow is 6’5, 336), and there’s a low bar. Good combo.

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Defense

The defense took a major step in 2017 under coordinator Neal Neathery, shooting from 108th to 60th in Def. S&P+, then figured out how to rise a bit more, to 52nd last fall. The radar shows us most of that growth came one-dimensionally.

EMU had a dynamite pass defense last year, ranking 20th overall in Passing S&P+ and holding opponents to a 55 percent completion rate. They rushed the passer without blitzing — ends Maxx Crosby and Jeremiah Harris combined for 12.5 sacks among 26.5 total tackles for loss — and they used their safeties aggressively.

Brody Hoying was one of the more disruptive DBs in the country, producing 11.5 TFLs to go with a trio of pass breakups. His outstanding dance partner, rover Vince Calhoun (seven passes defensed, two INTs, PFF all-conference), allowed Hoying and others to take risks while protecting the cornerbacks.

Crosby and Harris are gone, as are starting linebackers Kyle Rachwal and Jaylen Pickett (combined: 18.5 TFLs, four sacks, eight passes defensed), and that’s worrisome. Creighton signed a pair of JUCO ends (Grant Trueman and Jose Ramirez), and if one can fill an early role, some combination of Trueman/Ramirez and junior Turan Rush (three sacks as a 2018 backup) could work.

If the pass rush is merely decent, the secondary could again dominate. Hoying and Calhoun are scheduled to return, as are two of last year’s top three cornerbacks (Kevin McGill and Freddie McGee III). Creighton also signed a couple of JUCO DBs, plus a three-star JUCO linebacker in Brandon Burks.

That he inked five junior college defenders tells you a little bit about the depth EMU has to replace, but as long as Hoying is roaming and Calhoun is patrolling in the back, the Eagle defense will remain dangerous.

Special Teams

One life hack for winning close games: dominate in special teams. EMU ... has not. The Eagles were 65th in Special Teams S&P+ in 2016 but have ranked just 104th and 109th since.

Place-kicking was the major issue in 2018. Chad Ryland, a freshman, did make three of five field goals over 40 yards, but while 60 percent is pretty good on longer kicks, it’s horrible on shorter ones — he was 9-for-15 under 40. Jake Julien was a strong punter, at least, so if Ryland can grow into his role, the Eagles could have a pair of legs strong enough to get them back into the double digits in the rankings.

2019 outlook

2019 Schedule & Projection Factors Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 31-Aug at Coastal Carolina 116 6.6 65% 7-Sep at Kentucky 37 -17.7 15% 14-Sep at Illinois 91 -5.2 38% 21-Sep Central Connecticut NR 25.8 93% TBD Ball State 110 9.0 70% TBD Buffalo 97 3.1 57% TBD Kent State 111 9.8 71% TBD Western Michigan 75 -3.4 42% TBD at Akron 124 11.0 74% TBD at Central Michigan 122 9.6 71% TBD at Northern Illinois 76 -8.3 31% TBD at Toledo 78 -7.7 33% Projected S&P+ Rk 96 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 106 / 79 Projected wins 6.6 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -12.2 (112) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 125 2018 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 10 / 9.6 2018 TO Luck/Game +0.1 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 51% (53%, 49%) 2018 Second-order wins (difference) 8.5 (-1.5)

This is what slow and steady growth looks like in chart form:

Creighton’s performance in pushing this green-and-gray boulder up the hill has been incredible. He has brought life to a lifeless program, and while roster balance and turnover could be tricky hurdles — rebuilt lines this year, rebuild passing game and pass defense next year — EMU has more interesting youth than it maybe ever has.

Close-game karma could tell the story in 2019. S&P+ projects EMU as a multi-possession favorite in five games and a multi-score underdog in two. They face the top three projected teams in the conference (all division mates), but they miss the top two projected East teams (Ohio and Miami).

That leaves five games — including a trip to Illinois and an opportunity for a third straight Big Ten win — to determine whether the Eagles are aiming to eke out bowl eligibility or break through.

Team preview stats

All 2019 preview data to date.