There is a Russian saying, lyod tronulsya, which means the winter ice on the river has cracked and begun to move, that things have begun to change deeply and significantly. This is what's happening in today's Russia. After what was viewed by many voters as widespread fraud in parliamentary elections earlier this month, Vladimir Putin's authoritarian regime appears vulnerable in the face of growing protests. The question now is, how will he respond?

The billionaire oligarch Mikhail Prokhorov has thrown his hat into the ring...