In this critical analysis, RealSport breaks down the tiniest margins separating Mercedes and Ferrari at the top of the Canadian Grand Prix time sheets.

The margins currently separating Ferrari and Mercedes at the top of the Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix timing sheets are ridiculously minuscule.

Although Kimi Raikkonen may have finished Free Practice 2 a full 0.215s ahead of Lewis Hamilton, the comparison of the race simulations shows that under a tenth is currently separating the two manufacturers.

Ultrasoft runs

In a comprehensive analysis of the FP2 timings, there is just 0.052s difference between the average lap time of Kimi Raikkonen and Valtteri Bottas in their respective ultrasoft long run simulations.

Rather surprisingly, this advantage actually sits with Mercedes.

Although it must be considered that fuel loads are unknown at this time, one of the controlled variables we can take in to account is tyre life.

Valtteri Bottas’ long run, which consisted of seven fast laps, started with nine lap old Ultrasoft tyres whilst Kimi Raikkonen, who also completed seven fast laps, begun his run on ultrasofts that were a lap older.

For this data, Raikkonen and Bottas were the most reliable comparison as they kept their simulations relatively clean and long too (both completed seven fast laps). Lewis Hamilton, on the other hand, only completed four fast laps in his ten lap stint.

Ferrari split their strategies during the first long run simulations in FP2 as Sebastian Vettel did not complete a long run on his ultrasoft tyres and instead opted to complete two separate simulations on supersofts.

During the final simulations in the closing minutes of FP2, Mercedes split their drivers and had Valtteri Bottas run on the soft tyres – possibly to see if this would be a better race tyre.

Supersoft runs

This means, for the supersoft data, we again only have three drivers to compare: the two Ferrari’s and Lewis Hamilton. These statistics are far more uncontrolled as it remains adamantly unclear what fuel loads were run.

Only Kimi Raikkonen managed to complete a large number of laps on supersofts, but his average lap time was ultimately the slowest.

Raikkonen’s team mate, Sebastian Vettel, had no such issues in his second race simulation; he set both the fastest average lap time (over four laps) and the fastest overall time on supersofts with a 1:15.764.

Vettel’s fastest supersoft lap time was exactly three tenths faster than that of Hamilton, his nearest competitor. However, the Briton’s average lap times, over five fast laps, was just 0.002s slower than that of Vettel.

More alarmingly, though, Vettel’s simulation was conducted on supersofts that were eight laps older than Hamilton’s. Despite the relatively low wear rates of the new 2017 Pirelli’s, this further emphasises the pace Vettel has on the supersofts.

Nevertheless, there is an argument against the German’s pace; Vettel’s final simulation was his second long run on the supersofts, however, it was only Hamilton’s first. This extra experience is a potential reason Vettel seemingly extracted considerably more from the supersoft tyres than that of Hamilton and Raikkonen.

So, what’s the point of all this?

Lastly, Valtteri Bottas’ final long run simulations on the soft tyres is something to note. Over five fast laps, he convincingly set an average lap time of 1:16.446 with tyres that started with only eight laps of wear. In comparison, Hamilton, who was lapping on track at the same time, could only muster an average lap time that was 0.212s faster.

If the teams can’t make an ultrasoft/supersoft one stop strategy work, Bottas’ times somewhat proves there is potential for a one stop ultrasoft/soft strategy to be quick.

This could be absolutely crucial in the race as we saw Mercedes perfect a one stop in 2016, that ultimately elevated Lewis Hamilton in front of Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel, who’s two-stop cost him and Ferrari a potential race win.

All in all, the comparison of the ultrasoft long run simulations is the most perplexing. These will be the tyres the top teams will all run in the first stint (if rain doesn’t present itself in qualifying).

Yet, there is nothing to choose between Ferrari and Mercedes which means leading into the first corner and running in clean air will be the key to gaining the upper hand in the race.

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