When the House convenes the new Congress on Tuesday, Paul Ryan will easily win another term as speaker — perhaps by an even larger margin than when he won the job 14 months ago.

But the outlook for the man once seen as the future of the Republican Party couldn’t be more drastically different this time around.


Back then, Republicans viewed him as the lone figure who could unite a fractured House Republican Conference. Resigned to another White House loss, the traditional GOP establishment looked to Ryan to set its agenda and frame the GOP’s message in 2016. He was widely seen as their most promising White House contender for 2020.

But Donald Trump’s stunning victory turned Ryan’s world upside down. Once arguably Republicans' most popular figure, he's been relegated to playing second fiddle to the GOP's new undisputed leader — in an upended party rendered almost unrecognizable to Ryan and other traditional conservatives.

“Paul is going from the guy everyone looked to to rebuild the party to being a helping hand to the president,” said retiring Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-Ga.). Lawmakers typically fall in line behind the president when their party controls the White House, he continued, so Republicans in Congress won't "have as much freedom ... as they did when [they] were working against a Democratic president."

A House Republican leadership source put it more bluntly. Ryan's "whole political future has taken almost a 180 [degree turn] from where he thought it was going," the person said. "It’s going to be a fascinating six months to watch — how the speaker manages in this new paradigm where he’s not in charge.”

Ryan's conundrum is this: Trump's victory may have saved his speakership. Any challenge to Ryan by Freedom Caucus hard-liners or disappointed Trump supporters has been quashed by the president-elect, who insists he wants Ryan in the job.

In return, though, Ryan now has to follow the path laid down by Trump or risk a backlash from the same forces that took over the party and the country.

That's not the only wrinkle for the party's longtime golden boy: Once widely regarded as one of the GOP's top White House prospects, Ryan has been denied that opportunity by the 70-year-old Trump, at least for the foreseeable future. Conversely, as Ryan has repeatedly pointed out, he's poised to notch far more policy achievements as speaker with Trump in the Oval Office instead of Hillary Clinton.

Indeed, the wonkish 46-year-old will still play a prominent role this year crafting major GOP policies, from dismantling Obamacare to potentially ushering through the largest tax reform package since the 1980s. Trump's lack of policy chops could work to Ryan's advantage, allowing him to put his imprint on legislation in a way few other speakers could when their party controlled the White House.

Still, the GOP Ryan grew up in — the Jack Kemp model of free markets and small government — has been supplanted by Trump’s protectionist populism and anti-immigration drive. And that leaves Ryan's political future uncertain.

“When your party elects a president, that president becomes the head of your party — period,” said a senior House Republican lawmaker. “Paul understands that … I think he understands that Donald Trump is now the leader of the Republican Party.”

Until late October, Ryan wasn’t afraid to criticize Trump. He scoffed at the candidate's proposal to have Mexico pay for a border wall, called one of his controversial comments "the textbook definition" of racism and blasted Trump's plan to ban Muslims from entering the United States. While Ryan didn't name Trump specifically, the speaker also openly warned in August of an ongoing “fight for the soul of our party” — a battle between free markets and free trade verses crony capitalism that picks “winners and losers.”

Since Election Day, however, Ryan hasn’t uttered a negative word about Trump. He's glossed over major policy differences between his own ideology and the president-elect’s, on everything from tariffs to tax breaks for a single Indiana company to Trump's unsubstantiated claim of election fraud.

Ryan's allies and friends say the speaker has made the calculation that he has to play ball with Trump in order to get anything done.

“If he was on the phone with us right now I think what he would say is, 'Look, I have this agenda that we’ve put together on Obamacare, on tax reform, all of these things. I need to get them passed and I need to get them signed,'" said Wisconsin talk radio host Charlie Sykes, a “Never Trump” Republican who is close with Ryan. "So, how much am I willing to swallow in order to get my policy priorities through?'”

Ryan's office said he's enthusiastic about helping usher Trump's agenda through the House this year.

"Speaker Ryan’s one goal has always been to turn conservative policy solutions into law, and he relishes the role of running point to deliver them to President Trump’s desk,” Ryan's spokeswoman, AshLee Strong, said in a statement.

The speaker seems to have come to terms with the new GOP order. At news conferences since the election, he's dodged several opportunities to express his own vision for the new Congress and deferred to Trump's team when asked about plans for major legislation.

Some of Ryan's closest allies insist his new supporting role is actually a good thing for him. He's still very popular among traditional Republicans. And he remains a central player, speaking frequently with Trump and incoming White House chief of staff Reince Priebus, a fellow Wisconsinite and close ally, about legislative plans for this year.

"I think he's in a good place about this," said a top House Republican of Ryan. "He seems very upbeat about trying to get some stuff done with Trump."

Ryan and Trump may never end up being personally close, but getting along with a president from one's own party isn't a prerequisite for serving as speaker. Barack Obama and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) weren't especially tight yet accomplished a great deal during the two years of his presidency when she was speaker. George W. Bush was not close with his speaker, Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.), but they also formed an effective partnership.

Ryan isn’t the only Republican leader having to acclimate to the new Republican reality. The same could be said of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who unlike Ryan mostly refrained from criticizing Trump during the campaign but still kept the GOP nominee at arm's length. The Senate leader is also at odds with Trump ideologically.

But McConnell is in a very different situation politically than Ryan. For one, the Kentucky Republican is 74 and already has his dream job leading the Senate. Ryan still has potentially decades left in politics and never aspired to be speaker. Six weeks before the election, he said he could "never say never" to a future White House bid.

Westmoreland argued that Ryan’s new position in the party might be better for him in the long run. With Trump in the White House, Ryan won't have to negotiate watered-down deals with Democrats, the departing congressman said — deals that drew the ire of the far right.

"Now, think this is a real opportunity for Paul... to show his real conservative principles and push forward stuff he wanted to do before," Westmoreland said. "It gives Paul a little more flexibility."

Ryan has another thing going for him: His young age. He has plenty of time to adapt his image to fit this new populist GOP — or to wait for the party’s pendulum to swing his way once again.