The Bicycle Lock Phenomenon

In Japan, almost all bicycles (and bicycles are extremely common in Japan) are secured by a simple, inexpensive, lightweight ring lock (which could easily be twisted off and removed by a determined child using no tools). Even in dark, small alleys, there will be nice, expensive bikes just leaning against a home and apparently they have very little bike theft.

Here in the USA it is not uncommon to see a bike secured by a lock that weighs as much and at times even more than the bicycle itself. Bike theft is nonetheless quite common.

Does one deter bike theft by ever more sophisticated, costly and inconvenient bike locks? This is the idea of deterrence, the elementary psychological phenomenon of a constantly escalating defense-inviting ever escalating offense (as for example in the case of the "war or drugs" or the "ongoing war on terrorism"). The alternative, psychologically, paradoxically, is to de-escalate or disarm, as the Japanese apparently have in the case of the war on bicycle theft.

I was reminded of the bicycle lock phenomenon when I was reading a news article from the AP wire this morning. It dealt with airplane security in this age of terrorism. It was said that "the authorities" are considering various methods of making airplane travel safer. The list included, as I recall, , lie detector tests, The Israeli Model, profiling, and privatization. Disarmament or de-escalation was not mentioned.

Japan, as you may recall, passed a constitution in 1947, Chapter II of which, reads, in its entirety: Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes. In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized. Neither the US nor the Israeli constitution has such a pacifist clause. Is it safer in the US or in Israel than it is in Japan? As of now, by the way, Japan is the 2nd economic power in the world....

The Arms Race. From the first dreadnaught through the end of The Second War - or for that matter from the first ironclad to the end of The Second War - there was a continuous escalation involving bigger and bigger naval guns, more and more effective armor piercing shells, and thicker and thicker and more and more shell-resistant armoring. WWII US Battleships had at waistline, 16" of armor. They also carried 16" guns. Were we safer?

Cost a buncha money. Many were killed. More were maimed. More were psychologically warped. There was much pillaging, burning, looting, and rapine.

So then-what will work best against a determined opponent who is served by the same experts who serve "us"? Mind reading? Lie detector tests? The Israeli Model? Profiling? Privatization?

What would an application of the bicycle lock phenomenon have to say about this?

P.S. 1/17/10 Came back from a trip to Back East yesterday. Two colleagues gave me a ride from the airport to where I had parked my car. They were surprised to find it absolutely unlocked, with nothing missing or disturbed--just as it had been, on the street, for five days. Getting over the shock, one of them remarked, "it has some kind of a logic to it...."