Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s call for a Sangh-mukt Bharat is likely to fall flat on its face. Even as a slogan, it is shop-soiled, a copy from Narendra Modi’s Congress-mukt Bharat. As a political clarion-call for aggregating all anti-BJP parties under his leadership, presumably to give himself a crack at the Prime Ministership in 2019, it will be short-lived.

Reason: there are simply too many political leaders with their hats in the ring, and Nitish Kumar’s only chance is a Deve Gowda-like coalition that usually tends to fall in a year or two. Any formation backed by the Congress from the outside will not last beyond two years. And when such coalitions fall, it is usually the party that stays outside – the BJP, in this case – that gains in the end.



Here are five reasons why Nitish Kumar should rethink his slogan and tailor his ambitions down.



First, the BJP and the RSS are joined at the hip. So it is not possible to have a Sangh-mukt Bharat unless the idea is expanded to a BJP-mukt Bharat. This is a clear impossibility as things stand now. The BJP is the rising power, even after the loss of Delhi and Bihar to poor strategy.



Second, the Sangh, despite its quasi-political role, essentially has a cultural focus. It is a Hindu organisation, and the idea of India trying to get rid of its largest Hindu organisation with deep roots in the country is laughable. It is possible to envisage a Gandhi-mukt Congress, since it is only about delinking the party from one family, but trying to separate India from its much, much larger family – the Sangh Parivar – is highly improbable. Even the Sangh’s enemies do not wish to see it disappear, because the RSS provides a perfect foil for their own “secular” politics.



Third, Nitish Kumar has his own balancing act to do. If he seeks a national stage, it can come only at the cost of Bihar. It is unlikely that Lalu Prasad will ever agree to see Nitish grow bigger than him unless the latter is willing to let Lalu (or his son) run Bihar. Will Nitish give up the bird in hand for a national prize in the bush, when that prize depends on heading a shaky coalition? The logic of a rainbow coalition is that it must have a weak leader; a strong leader like Nitish cannot head a hydra-headed coalition with many other leaders of equal stature.



Fourth, Nitish’s ambitions on the national scene will be circumscribed by two other parties with national claims or hopes. The Congress under Rahul Gandhi can’t allow Nitish to grow beyond Bihar; and this holds true for Arvind Kejriwal, too. Three leaders with the same ideas and same antipathy to the Sangh is two too many. Three is a crowd in any leadership stakes. And we haven’t even counted Mulayam Singh or Mayawati, who too nurture prime ministerial ambitions. Outside the BJP and Congress, there are simply too many PMs-in-waiting to allow anyone to remain at the top for long.



Fifth, the last time someone attempted a Sangh-mukt Bharat strategy – in 1980, when the Janata Party fell apart on this issue - Indira Gandhi romped home. In 1990, when Mandal politics indirectly attempted the same idea, the Sangh and the BJP emerged stronger. In 1996, and 1998, when the same logic was applied to prevent Vajpayee from becoming or remaining PM, the BJP came to power two years later.



You may or may not like the BJP or its mentor, the Sangh, but there is no wishing them away.



Nitish Kumar will discover that soon enough. His best bet is, in fact, to kiss and make up with the BJP in Bihar, and ensure longevity as Chief Minister. Vying for Prime Ministership will reduce him to a footnote in history – like Deve Gowda and IK Gujral.