Opinion polls prove not just wrong but embarrassingly wide of the mark. An outsider dramatically and unexpectedly becomes the favourite to take the Republican Party nomination for the presidential election of one of the world’s great powers. Sound familiar?

But forget Trump for a moment. There are now two questions that need answering about François Fillon, the man who defeated Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppé to win the first leg of France’s own right-of-centre primary last night.

The first is this: is he capable of beating the Front National candidate Marine Le Pen in next May’s election?

The second: If he does win, will he be the tax-lowering, regulation-burning, private-sector liberating Thatcherite that his country so desperately needs?

Let’s take them in reverse order.