Liberal Support Ticks Up, But Landscape Unchanged

More disapprove of Trudeau than approve

Toronto, December 15th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1284 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, once again the Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied in support, with the Conservatives seeing support from just under 4 in 10 (39%) and the Liberals (38%) seeing support from a similar proportion.

Conservative support (39%) is very similar what that we saw in November (Nov 9: 38%).

While current Liberal support (38%) has risen slightly since November, (Nov 9: 36%), Liberal support since then is effectively unchanged, as it’s within the margin of error.

Support for the NDP is just over 1 in 10 (12%) and, like the Liberals, hasn’t changed much since November (Nov 9: 14%).

Few say they would support the Green (5%) (Nov 9: 6%), BQ (5%) (Nov 9: 6%), or another party (1%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Conservatives include those aged 45-54 (40%), 55-64 (39%), or 65+ (42%), males (48%), earning $80,000-$100,000 (45%) or the most wealthy (43%), living in the prairies (MB/SK) (59%) or Alberta (58%), and the least educated (43%), with some college/university (40%), or a college/university degree (43%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals include those aged 55-64 (43%), females (45%), the least wealthy (41%), earning $40,000-$60,000 (41%), or the most wealthy (42%), living in the Atlantic (46%) or Québec (43%), and with a post-graduate degree (46%).

If an election were held today, we would expect to see a Liberal minority of 166 seats, with the Conservatives’ serving once again as official opposition with 147.

The NDP would secure 15 and the BQ would win 9. The Green Party would hold their seat.

Trudeau approval down, Scheer and Singh still unknown

Justin Trudeau now sees disapproval from almost half of all respondents (47%), with the approval of just over 4 in 10 (42%). About 1 in 10 (11%) say they do not know. His net favourable score (approve – disapprove) is -5.

Trudeau’s approval remains mostly unchanged since September (Sep 21: 43%) as is his disapproval (Sep 21: 47%).

Andrew Scheer sees approval from just over one-quarter (28%) and disapproval of the same proportion (28%). To the plurality, however, (44%) he remains an unknown. His net favourable score is 0.

Scheer’s support, like Trudeau’s, is most unchanged from September, with his approval (Sep 21: 26%) and disapproval (Sep 21: 30%), in very similar proportions to that month.

In our first test of Jagmeet Singh as leader of the NDP, he sees a very similar line to that of Andrew Scheer with just over a quarter (28%) saying they approve and the same proportion (27%) saying they disapprove.

The plurality say they do not know (45%).

Trudeau the choice for best PM

Trudeau remains the choice for best Prime Minister with almost a third (30%) saying the current PM is still the best choice for PM.

Andrew Scheer is the second choice, with 2 in 10 (21%) saying it’s him that’s the best choice.

None of these is the choice of one-sixth (16%), with Elizabeth May (10%), Jagmeet Singh (9%), and do not know (10%) bunched together. Few believe Martine Ouellet (5%) would make the best Prime Minister.

“It looks as though the Federal landscape has stabilized somewhat, which is good news for the Prime Minister who’d seen his support fluctuate over the past few months,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Andrew Scheer should be pleased with his party’s performance as well, but both Scheer and new NDP leader Jagmeet Singh have the same problem: they remain unknown to a considerable portion of the electorate. Voters can expect to see the two leaders criss-crossing the nation in an attempt to raise their profile while the house is on break.”

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.