2011 was 51st warmest year in Australia!

Despite all the headlines we see, 2011 in Australia was remarkable for its extraordinary averageness. It is a rare year that is more average than 2011 was.

(This email was spotted on it’s way to various government officials. – Jo)

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Guest post from Steve Woodman

2011 was the 52nd coldest year on record in Australia, colder than 1912, 1914, 1915 & 1919

Alarmist propaganda outlets such as the ABC were clearly disappointed by 2011 and were forced to resort to decadal temperatures rather than individual years to provide it with its headlines 1:

“Last decade equals warmest on record: UN”

The article then goes on to say:

“2011 ranks as the 10th warmest year since 1850, when accurate measurements began”

That may be so in a global sense, but if the ABC took a more local perspective, in Australia, 2011 was below the 1961-1990 average (see the graph below) 2.

In fact, 2011 came in at -0.13oC. Of course that would not provide the breathtaking headlines like the ABC used in 2010 3: “2010 the hottest year on record”

A headline like, “2011 was the 52nd coldest year on record in Australia, or if your glass is half empty, only the 51st warmest” doesn’t quite have the same ring, does it?

In fact, in the complete 102 year record kept by the Bureau, last year4 (and, by the way, 2001 as well) is slap dash in the middle.

It is interesting to note that there are 12 years prior to 1960 which were warmer than 2011. These warm years were;





1914 0.27oC 1957 0.03oC 1938 0.26oC 1919 -0.03oC 1959 0.25oC 1936 -0.05oC 1928 0.22oC 1940 -0.09oC 1915 0.2oC 1912 -0.09oC 1958 0.14oC 2001 -0.130C 1942 0.06oC 2011 -0.14oC

It is interesting to note that four of these warmer years occurred between 1912 and 1919. This is surprising since despite this last decade being the warmest ever, two of its years (2011 and 2001) were colder than it was during World War 1!

This is particularly telling when considering that CO 2 concentrations were a mere 301 ppm in 1914 5 as opposed to 389 ppm in 2011 6.

A paradox, surely, yet it shows that the natural variability in past and present temperatures still overlap, despite ever increasing levels of CO 2 .

I remind the Commission of the admission by climate scientist Phil Jones 7 of the CRU (upon whom the IPCC rely for temperature data) that during the 1910-1940 warming period temperatures rose at the same rate as they did between 1975 and 2009 despite there being so much less CO 2 in the air.

Period Length Trend (degrees C per decade) 1860 -1880 21 0.163 1910 – 1940 31 0.15 1975 – 1998 24 0.166 1975 – 2009 35 0.161

Surely this must raise some doubts in your mind as to CO 2 causing runaway catastrophic global warming when we see no difference in the rate of temperature between today and a century ago.

In concert with the decade long pause in global temperature rise, Australian temperatures have also stayed relatively flat since 1995, hardly a sign of catastrophic global warming.

Globally 2012 has started in cool fashion with January 21 being the coldest day in a decade 8.



With the La Nina expected to continue to the end of 2012 9 we can expect this year to be cool as well. Where it ends up in the league table of temperatures is anyone’s guess, but it won’t be the hottest year ever which will make the runaway global warming mantra and the need for an economy wide carbon dioxide tax even harder to maintain.

2 concentrations in the atmosphere the average temperature in Australia during 2011was below the average and was colder than 1912 suggesting natural variability still largely determines the globe’s temperatures.

As always I remind the commission of its duty statement.

The Commission will be required to:

Hold a series of public outreach events to explain:

the science of climate change and issues raised by climate scientists;

the magnitude of the challenge to address climate change;

the role of a carbon price in effectively tackling climate change;

what contribution other policy mechanisms are making;

how a carbon price works and its interaction with the economy and the community; and

the opportunities for Australian firms and communities in moving to a low carbon future

Draw on their expertise and that of the other relevant experts and organisations to prepare targeted information products to help inform the public and build community support for climate change efforts.

Engage in other community forums and public debate as required.

http://www.climatechange.gov.au/minister/greg-combet/2011/media-releases/February/mr20110210.aspx

References & Notes

1 Last decade equals warmest on record: UN ABC news



2 Bureau Of meteorology climate temperature graph can be found at: BOM

3 2010 the hottest year on record Updated January 21, 2011 10:53:00 ABC

4 Bureau Of Meteorology Temperature data – sorted can be found at: BOM Timeseries

5 CO2 in 1914 – 301 ppm NOAA (PDF)

6 CO2 in 2011 – 391.8 ppm NOAA

CO2 in 2011 – Cape Grimm (CSIRO) 388.98 CSIRO

7 Phil Jones’ interview with the BBC can be found at: BBC

8 Lower troposphere temperature can be found at: UAH

9 Note that 5 out of 7 recent forecasts (in blue) expect the La Nina to extend beyond October 2012. NINO 3.4 WUWT

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