As many as 80,000 people could die if there was an outbreak of a drug-resistant infection in Britain, a government forecast has warned.

According to the report, about 200,000 people could fall victim to a bacterial blood infection if there was a widespread outbreak that existing antibiotics could not tackle.

Even routine operations would become high-risk procedures and many elements of modern medicine, such as organ transplants, would be too dangerous, the report said.



The numbers of infections complicated by antimicrobial resistance was expected to “increase markedly” over the next 20 years, it added.

Besides the immediate risks, it warned that “high numbers of deaths could also be expected from other forms of antimicrobial resistant infection” (AMR).

The warnings are contained in the National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies, which was published by the Cabinet Office late last month. It provides guidance on potential threats such as terror, flu and natural disasters.

It stated: “An increasingly serious issue is the development and spread of AMR, which occurs when drugs are no longer effective in treating infections caused by micro-organisms.

“Without effective antibiotics, even minor surgery and routine operations could become high-risk procedures, leading to increased duration of illness and ultimately premature mortality.



“Much of modern medicine (for example, organ transplantation, bowel surgery and some cancer treatments) may become unsafe due to the risk of infection.

“In addition, influenza pandemics would become more serious without effective treatments.”

The assessment continued: “The numbers of infections complicated by AMR are expected to increase markedly over the next 20 years.

“If a widespread outbreak were to occur, we could expect around 200,000 people to be affected by a bacterial blood infection that could not be treated effectively with existing drugs, and around 80,000 of these people might die.

“High numbers of deaths could also be expected from other forms of antimicrobial resistant infection.”

Politicians and scientists have previously warned of the need to find a cure for infections that have become resistant, with David Cameron stating it was a “very real and worrying threat” that could send medicine “back into the dark ages”.

A Department of Health spokesman said the chief medical officer for England, Dame Sally Davies, has repeatedly warned of the dangers of AMR.

She said last year: “The world simply cannot afford not to take action to tackle the alarming rise in resistance to antibiotics and other antimicrobial drugs we are witnessing at the moment.”

In March 2013, she said: “We in the UK are taking this issue extremely seriously and will be publishing a five-year, cross-government strategy in the summer.

“But we can’t really tackle it unless we get coordinated, international action, which is why we’re working in partnership to push it up the global political agenda.

“If we don’t take action, in 20 years’ time we could be back in the 19th century where infections kill us as a result of routine operations.”