There are some great matchups this week to write about, but I’m going to choose to feature perhaps the least important one. The Raiders visit the Panthers, a forgettable game in almost all respects. Both teams have losing records and have been eliminated from the playoffs. There are no records to be broken or rivalry to be fought. But there is one quirk.

The oddsmakers have made Carolina a 9.5-point favorite despite the fact that it has only won one more game than Oakland (4-10). Although the Panthers have home-field advantage, that’s typically worth only about 2.5 points. The point spread is suggesting that the Panthers are a much stronger team than their record (5-9) indicates. The oddsmakers have learned something the prediction model has known for many weeks now: that Carolina is a strong team that fell victim to some very bad luck, particularly early in the season.

For most of the season, the Panthers have stuck out like a sore thumb near the very top of my efficiency rankings, costing the model credibility and inviting criticism week after week. They’re currently ranked the fourth-most efficient team in the league, owning the sixth-most efficient offense and the seventh-most efficient defense. Comparing the Panthers’ and Raiders’ core stats illustrates how drastically the two teams differ.

Team netYPA Run SR% Int% Fum% D netYPA D Run SR% D Int% Pen Rate OAK 6.4 35 2.5 1.4 6.9 60 2.1 0.45 CAR 7.1 44 2.3 1.3 6.0 56 1.9 0.40 Avg 6.3 41 2.7 1.3 6.3 57 2.7 0.42

Carolina’s numbers are solid across the board, except in defensive interceptions, which is the least stable of the core numbers. The most stable and predictive of all stats is offensive pass efficiency, in which Carolina ranks tied for third in the league behind Washington and Denver.

This can’t be much comfort for disappointed Panthers fans who had high hopes in 2012, but at least they can expect a fairly strong regression upward in 2013.

Here are the game probabilities for Week 16.

Pwin GAME Pwin 0.51 Atlanta at Detroit 0.49 0.43 New Orleans at Dallas 0.57 0.29 Tennessee at Green Bay 0.71 0.54 Indianapolis at Kansas City 0.46 0.40 Buffalo at Miami 0.60 0.39 San Diego at NY Jets 0.61 0.56 Washington at Philadelphia 0.44 0.43 Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 0.57 0.48 St. Louis at Tampa Bay 0.52 0.23 Oakland at Carolina 0.77 0.72 New England at Jacksonville 0.28 0.26 Minnesota at Houston 0.74 0.19 Cleveland at Denver 0.81 0.56 Chicago at Arizona 0.44 0.50 NY Giants at Baltimore 0.50 0.47 San Francisco at Seattle 0.53

Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, statistics and game theory.