Both pollsters say that, if prior Florida elections are any measure, a battle between Sen. Bill Nelson and Gov. Rick Scott would likely be decided by the slimmest of margins. | Getty In dueling Florida Senate polls, Nelson either leads or is tied with Scott

MIAMI — Sen. Bill Nelson is either tied with Gov. Rick Scott or starting to pull ahead of the likely Republican challenger in what could be the nation’s most-expensive Senate race, according to a pair of dueling polls released today.

In a Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey of 625 registered Florida voters, Nelson is basically tied with Scott, 45-44 percent. That result is essentially unchanged since the firm’s October poll, which found the two tied evenly at 44 percent each.


A University of North Florida poll of 429 likely Florida voters, however, had better news for the incumbent. It showed Nelson leading Scott 48-42 percent. Nelson’s 6-point advantage has grown since UNF’s last survey, in October, when the Democrat had a marginal one-point lead over Scott, 37-36 percent.

The differences between the poll results can be chalked up to different sample sizes and methods (UNF surveyed fewer people but screened for likely voters) and natural variations that occur when different people survey different people from the same population. The UNF poll’s error margin is 4.7 points and Mason-Dixon’s is 4 points.

Both pollsters say that, if prior Florida elections are any measure, a battle between Nelson and Scott would likely be decided by the slimmest of margins. Scott is expected, but not guaranteed, to announce after the March 9 end of the state legislative session.

“Once the mega-millions start flying in here, who knows what’s going to happen?” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker.

In Mason-Dixon’s survey, 42 percent of Florida voters view Scott favorably and 32 percent unfavorably; 3 percent don’t recognize his name and the rest are neutral. For Nelson, 37 percent view him favorably; 24 percent unfavorably and 12 percent don’t recognize him.

President Donald Trump, who narrowly carried Florida in 2016, is viewed favorably by 44 percent of registered state voters and unfavorably by 45 percent in Mason-Dixon’s survey.

“With such little movement over the course of a year, particularly given the strong level of partisanship within Congress and the divisiveness among voters in their views of President Trump, this race may be destined to become the bellwether contest of the country,” Coker said.

In UNF’s poll, 52 percent of likely voters approve of the job Nelson is doing and 20 percent disapprove. For Scott, 63 percent approve and 31 percent disapprove of the job he’s doing. Trump’s ratings: 43 percent approve and 53 percent disapprove.

Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF, said he thinks Scott may have lost some ground in his poll partly due to Trump.

The main shift in UNF’s polling of the Senate race since October has been among the number of Republicans who say they support the Democrat over Scott, 14 percent. But only 7 percent of Democrats say they support the Republican over Nelson. Still, 79 percent of Republicans back Scott in a matchup and 86 percent of Democrats would vote for Nelson. The two are tied among independents, according to this poll.

But in Mason-Dixon’s poll, Scott leads Nelson by 49-38 percent among independents. Democrats favor Nelson over Scott by 81-4 percent and Republicans support Scott over Nelson by 84-9 percent in Mason-Dixon’s survey.

Voters have a tendency to punish the party of the president in power. And both polls sample slightly more Democrats than Republicans. But more Republican voters tend to vote in Florida midterms. If either poll is reconfigured to account for an average midterm turnout, Nelson’s lead evaporates.

“Even though it appears Nelson has a reasonable lead in the poll, the election results will ultimately get determined by who shows up in November,” Binder said. “Historically, Republicans have enjoyed a turnout advantage in midterms, but with the current mood of the country, and a large number of Republican retirements, Democrats are optimistic about an impending blue wave.”