Manziel's expected competition in the first round of this year’s draft includes Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, and Derek Carr. This past season, the aforementioned four quarterbacks posted the following ratings:

Johnny Manziel: 172.9

Teddy Bridgewater: 171.1

Blake Bortles: 163.4

Derek Carr: 156.3

(Their average in 2013 was around 133.0.)

Each of these marks ranked in the top 15 of college football in 2013. So all four were “good.” However, Manziel and Bridgewater were top-five quarterbacks, so one could argue that on the field, Manziel and Bridgewater were somewhat better than Bortles and Carr.

On-field performance, though, is not the only story. After the season is over, the NFL measures both the physical and mental skills of each athlete it might consider in the draft. At the NFL combine, the players are physically measured (height and weight), run the standard 40-yard dash (among other drills), and asked to take the Wonderlic test. The latter is a 50-question test designed to measure intelligence.

When we look at these four quarterbacks, we see the following measurements:

Player Height

(in inches) Weight

(in lbs.) 40-yard

dash time Wonderlic

Score Johnny Manziel 72 207 4.68 32 Blake Bortles 77 232 4.93 28 Teddy Bridgewater 74 214 4.67 20 Derek Carr 74 214 4.69 23

Of these four, Bortles is the biggest but also the slowest. Manziel—if we are to believe the Wonderlic score—is the smartest. But he is also the smallest.

So what does any of this mean? In terms of where a quarterback is drafted, both what we see on the field and at the combine matters (and it seems the latter matters more than the former). Specifically, according to my research, quarterbacks who are bigger, taller, faster, and smarter tend to hear their name first on draft day. And on this list, it appears taller and faster are the most important: If we look at a one standard deviation in each variable, height and speed have the largest impact on draft position. For each, a one standard deviation improvement moves you about one round up in the draft. That’s both bad and good news for Manziel.

Unlike the other three players listed above, though, Manziel won the Heisman Trophy (in 2012) and plays in one of the top college conferences—a list that includes the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, SEC, and Pac-12. Each of these factors are also statistically related to where a quarterback is drafted (though, as NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah pointed out to Paul Glavic this week, team scouts claim they are generally less concerned with awards than fans think).

So we can see why Manziel might be considered a better choice relative to his primary competition. But will he be a top NFL quarterback, as so many NFL insiders believe?

Consider the following list of names: Brandon Weeden, Blaine Gabbert, Tim Tebow, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jason Campbell, and J.P. Losman. Each of these 11 quarterbacks were taken in the first round of the NFL draft in the past 10 years. And each quarterback has not only lost their starting job with the team that thought so highly of them on draft day, but these quarterbacks are not likely to be starting anywhere in the NFL in 2014.