Geopolitical Impacts in Politics

The snap election wasn’t predicted to be highly contested at its April announcement, operating in theory as a smooth power consolidation for Erdoğan, with the constitutional changes of 2017 removing the prime minister position, giving appointment control to the president, and changing the role of the president in regard to law making [13]. The impact of Erdoğan winning outright would galvanize a permanence in control for the current ruling party, effectively making Erdoğan the most powerful political leader of Turkey in its modern history, rivaling the Ottoman Emperor in national control [14]. Conversely, the high likelihood for a July run off election could erode nationalist support for Erdoğan, leading to a crisis of faith in his ability to garner support, a trait he has been notoriously famous for in Turkish politics given his massive impact on Turkish foreign and domestic policy [15]. In the event of Erdoğan losing, either in the runoff election or in the very unlikely case of Sunday’s vote, and international shift in political leadership support could easily become a reality, acting as a warning shot for other authoritarian regimes, both near and far. While unlikely to impact countries that feature massive support for their authoritarian leaders such as the Philippines and Russia, countries in the Middle East should become more wary to the spread of political upheaval.

Geopolitical Impacts in Economics

Given the downward trend of the Lira in international market valuation, the economic effect of the election could become much more pronounced. As Turkey currently faces staggering issues with inflation, exasperated by Erdoğan’s reluctance to increase interest rates [16], the impact of continuation down this trend can lead to stagflation, a stagnant economy marred by skyrocketing inflation. In a similar vein in economic history, ultra conservative leader Francisco Franco experienced stagflation in the 1950s in Spain due primarily to his belief in autarky, which crippled the economy until technocrat policy changes led to the Spanish Miracle in 1959 [17]. If Erdoğan loses the election, economic doors between Turkey and the European Union could become more pronounced, which would drastically benefit the struggling Lira in becoming a more utilized global currency [18].

Geopolitical Impacts in the United States

While Erdoğan might not be a household name in the United States, he has been received in mixed taste by United States President Donald Trump, who considers Erdoğan as a friend [19]. Although recently there has been dispute over the content of their January phone call [20], they committed to stay in touch [21]. This dispute is overshadowed though by Trump apologizing to Erdoğan for the treatment his bodyguards received in Washington D.C. [22] when they brutalized American citizens protesting the visiting president [23]. With the continued presidency of Erdoğan on the line, this election has the potential to damage the political relationship between the current US administration and Turkey as a country. With President Trump’s continuous approval of leaders utilizing the same style of authoritarian governance, such as Putin, Duterte, and Kim Jong Un [24], losing a key ally in Turkey could shift the geopolitical perspective of United States foreign policies in the Middle East and Europe, especially if an Ince presidency leads to a revitalized connection between Turkey and the EU, which is currently at odds with President Trump over abdication from G7 and the UN Council on Human Rights [25, 26].

Sources

[1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-election/turkeys-erdogan-main-rival-stage-final-election-rallies-idUSKBN1JJ0EX

[2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/16/erdogan-claims-victory-in-turkish-constitutional-referendum

[3] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-election/turkeys-erdogan-main-rival-stage-final-election-rallies-idUSKBN1JJ0EX

[4] https://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=TRY&to=USD&amount=1

[5] https://www.wsj.com/articles/turkeys-erdogan-strains-to-turn-strongman-rule-into-dominance-at-polls-1529659800

[6] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/erdogan-clings-power-polls-tighten-ahead-turkey-s-snap-election-n885986

[7] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-election-media/erdogans-election-rivals-struggle-to-be-heard-in-turkeys-media-idUSKBN1JG23Z

[8] https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/06/turkey-ince-galvanizes-opposition-hopes-in-elections.html

[9] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-election-poll/poll-shows-turkeys-erdogan-falling-short-of-election-majority-in-first-round-idUSKCN1J124P

[10] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5876881/Turkeys-opposition-leader-Muharrem-Ince-challenges-Erdogan-confront-television-debate.html

[11] http://new-pretender.com/2018/06/09/turkey-how-the-populist-centre-left-is-challenging-erdogan/

[12] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/23/turkey-opposition-supporters-protect-votes-erdogan-steal-election/

[13] https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/04/13/the-turkish-constitutional-referendum-explained/

[14] http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/06/22/erdogan-is-making-the-ottoman-empire-great-again/

[15] http://time.com/4410491/turkey-president-erdogan-history/

[16] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-currency/turkeys-erdogan-calls-interest-rates-mother-of-all-evil-lira-slides-idUSKBN1IC1NV

[17] https://www.forbes.com/sites/timreuter/2014/05/19/before-chinas-transformation-there-was-the-spanish-miracle/

[18] http://www.dw.com/en/could-turkeys-opposition-reset-ties-with-the-eu/a-44308156

[19] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-turkey/trump-praises-turkeys-erdogan-as-a-friend-idUSKCN1BW2SJ

[20] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/25/turkey-disputes-us-version-of-trump-erdogan-phone-call-on-syria

[21] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-erdogan/trump-erdogan-discuss-syria-crisis-agree-to-stay-in-close-touch-idUSKBN1HJ0CK

[22] http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/351461-erdogan-trump-apologized-to-me-over-turkish-bodyguards-attacking

[23] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/erdogan-guards-washington-dc-fight-indictments-turkey-president-visit-donald-trump-a7920126.html

[24] https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/05/donald-trump-praising-authoritarians-rodrigo-duterte

[25] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44427660

[26] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-expected-to-back-away-from-un-human-rights-council/2018/06/19/a49c2d0c-733c-11e8-b4b7-308400242c2e_story.html

Lead Photo credit: AP Emre Tazegul