by Aaron Schatz

As I've detailed numerous times over the past two months, the NFL just doesn't seem to have any really great teams this season. That's a big reason why the Philadelphia Eagles are still No. 1 in DVOA despite yet another loss in Week 9.

Yes, I know it seems absurd to have a 4-4 team at No. 1, but it makes more sense when you look closer at all of Philadelphia's individual games as well as the performance of the rest of the league in 2016.

Last week, I detailed some of the reasons why the Eagles are at No. 1 right now. Essentially, they have mixed three big wins and one gigantic win (over Pittsburgh) with four very close losses which have positive DVOA ratings because they came against the other good teams of the NFC East. Yes, the Eagles are in last place, but this is a last-place team that has outscored its opponents by a combined 57 points. Also, contrary to all the September stories about the Wentz Wagon, the Eagles are doing this entirely with defense and special teams. They lead the league in both categories, with a big gap between the Eagles and every other team. Meanwhile, the offense ranks 23rd.

The Eagles drop from 28.6% to 27.5% in total DVOA this week, but that's a small drop. They weren't going to drop much more after a very close loss to another good team. Both the Giants (11.3%) and the Eagles (18.3%) had good DVOA ratings for Sunday's game. The Eagles gained 6.0 yards per play compared to 5.0 yards per play for the Giants, with an equal number of turnovers. Plus, the system is going to reward the Eagles' defense for an interception that put them in prime scoring position (the Giants' 34), even though they didn't score from that position because the game situation forced them to go for it on fourth-and-10. With a gap of a few percentage points between the Eagles and the rest of the league, they weren't going to fall into second place based on this game. Meanwhile, below them, the DVOA system was surprisingly nonchalant about the No. 2 Cowboys dismantling Cleveland (23.2% DVOA after opponent adjustments), while the No. 3 Broncos got their asses whupped and dropped three spots. So Philadelphia is still No. 1.

Someone asked me on Twitter if having Philadelphia ranked first in DVOA shows that DVOA is flawed. The answer is that of course DVOA is flawed. All statistical ratings systems are flawed. We will never perfectly measure what the true quality of every NFL team is in the current week. There are things DVOA captures too much, or not enough. There is also value to subjective analysis that helps us consider the issues that DVOA does not incorporate, such as the importance of current injuries or the knowledge of which ratings should be discounted because circumstances have changed since September. They programmed a computer to be the greatest chess player in the world, only to discover that the greatest chess player is not a computer or a human being but rather a human being and a computer working in tandem. Figuring out the best teams in the NFL is no different.

Normally, a team such as the 2016 Eagles would be ranked third or fourth, and we would all be sitting here saying, "Wow, isn't it interesting that DVOA likes the Eagles so much even though they are just 4-4." But the Eagles look more out of place because there just aren't any great teams to be ranked higher than them this season. The Cowboys would probably be ranked higher if they had one dominant win on their record that matched the Eagles' 34-3 stomping of Pittsburgh. The Seahawks would probably be ranked higher if they had not lost to the Rams in Week 2. The Patriots would probably be ranked higher if not for the Week 4 game where they started an injured third-string quarterback and got shut out by Buffalo. But none of those things are true.

The Eagles are the worst team ever to be ranked No. 1 in DVOA at midseason. Only two teams come close.

The 2011 Jets were a similar team to these Eagles: 5-3 at midseason with 30.2% DVOA despite having a poor offense. That Jets team was 20th on offense, second on defense, and third on special teams after Week 9. The Jets actually collapsed somewhat over the second half of the season, going 3-5 over the final eight games and dropping to 10th in DVOA by the end of the year. Just like it is weird to see the Eagles ahead of the Cowboys right now, it was strange to see the 5-3 Jets ahead of the undefeated (and No. 2 in DVOA) Green Bay Packers at midseason. However, that Packers team excelled in part by winning close games, and they weren't historically great despite the eventual 15-1 record. 2011 ended up as one of only six seasons since 1989 (and the most recent) where no team ended up with DVOA over 30% at the end of the year.

The year before, the 2010 Giants ranked No. 1 in DVOA at midseason with 30.9% DVOA and a 6-2 record. The 5-3 Eagles were right behind them at 30.5% DVOA. However, 2010 is a strange year where the eventual two best teams (New England and Pittsburgh) really surged in the second half of the year. Like the 2011 Jets, the 2010 Giants declined at midseason, finishing 4-4 over the last eight games and ninth in DVOA. However, the 2010 Eagles did not decline. They also finished 10-6, so they were 5-3 in their last eight games, and they finished the year third in DVOA behind New England and Pittsburgh.

However, these Eagles do not have the best DVOA ever for a 4-4 team. That honor belongs to... another Philadelphia team. The 2006 Eagles are the only other team to ever lead the NFL in DVOA with a 4-4 record. That team was even better, with 36.1% DVOA after Week 9. And that Eagles team showed that DVOA was right about them, as they went 6-2 over the last eight games of the year.

The other 4-4 team with a higher DVOA than these Eagles was the 2005 San Diego Chargers, who ranked third with 34.3% DVOA when they were 4-4. That was a really weird year for the Chargers. They outscored opponents by 106 points but finished only 9-7. The early part of the year looked a lot like the first two months of the year for the current Eagles. Their first four losses all came by four points or less, while their wins came by scores of 45-23, 41-17 (over the defending champion Patriots!), 27-14, and 28-20.

[ad placeholder 3]

By the way, the whole "DVOA loves the Eagles" thing is very strange. We've always assumed this is based on the way that the Andy Reid offense is built to make consistent small gains that move the chains. However, that assumption makes no sense if you look at this year's ratings. The Eagles are No. 1 entirely because of defense and special teams, not because of Doug Pedersen bringing the Reid offense back to Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the actual Andy Reid offense seems to be somewhat underrated by DVOA, as the Chiefs are 11th (and 21st in offense) despite a 6-2 record. All this Eagles talk also may be for naught because the Eagles' remaining schedule is the hardest in the league. Don't be surprised if the Eagles are still ranked No. 1 in DVOA at the end of the year but finish 8-8 or 9-7 and out of the playoffs. (More likely, given how the Patriots have played since Tom Brady's return, the Eagles will end the year No. 2 in DVOA but out of the playoffs.)

Anyway, the whole "no great teams in 2016" issue goes beyond just the Eagles. Dallas also has the lowest DVOA for any team ever ranked No. 2 at midseason. Atlanta is No. 1 in offensive DVOA, but only two teams have ever been No. 1 in offense at this point with a less impressive rating (2008 Giants, 1997 Broncos). On defense, the Eagles don't stand out as unimpressive compared to past No. 1 defenses, but the rest of this year's great defenses have all taken a step backwards. With Denver, Seattle, and Minnesota all giving up big offensive games this week, the Eagles are now the only defense below -20% for the year.

Meanwhile, Houston stands out for having a winning record despite ranking 30th in DVOA. (Detroit stands out to a lesser extent, ranked No. 27 with a 5-4 record.) The Texans have the lowest DVOA ever for a team with a winning record through Week 9, while Detroit ranks 10th.

Worst DVOA by Team with Winning Record Through Week 9, 1989-2016 Year Team W-L DVOA Rank Final

W-L Final

DVOA Final

Rank Playoffs? 2016 HOU 5-3 -26.6% 30 -- -- -- -- 2012 IND 5-3 -22.5% 27 11-5 -16.0% 25 Wild Card 1990 CIN 5-4 -20.3% 22 9-7 -12.3% 21 Won AFC Central 2010 CHI 5-3 -19.0% 25 11-5 2.4% 14 Won NFC North 2007 DET 6-2 -17.1% 25 7-9 -29.0% 29 Missed 2015 MIN 6-2 -14.9% 26 11-5 5.7% 11 Won NFC North 2002 BUF 5-4 -14.1% 26 8-8 -8.0% 23 Missed 1996 IND 5-3 -13.3% 23 9-7 -12.2% 22 Wild Card 2006 SEA 5-3 -12.7% 24 9-7 -13.0% 24 Won NFC West 2016 DET 5-4 -12.4% 27 -- -- -- --

* * * * *

Once again this season, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 17 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in DVOA and DYAR. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend, beginning at 11am Eastern on Friday. We will also tweet out images of these players from the @fboutsiders Twitter account on most Fridays. The best player of each week, the Football Outsiders Hero, will require you to collect a set of the other four Football Outsiders players that week, plus a certain number of Football Outsiders collectibles available in Madden Ultimate Team packs.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 9 are:

LG Kelechi Osemele , OAK (FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS HERO) : Oakland RB had 29 runs, 126 yards, 3 TD on runs going left or up the middle.

: Oakland RB had 29 runs, 126 yards, 3 TD on runs going left or up the middle. LOLB Mark Barron, LARM : Led team with 9 tackles including a sack and three run tackles for a yard or less.

: Led team with 9 tackles including a sack and three run tackles for a yard or less. DT Maliek Collins, DAL : 2 sacks for 16 lost yards.

: 2 sacks for 16 lost yards. HB Mark Ingram, NO : No. 2 among Week 9 RB with 64 DYAR (158 rushing yards, 13 receiving yards, 2 TD).

: No. 2 among Week 9 RB with 64 DYAR (158 rushing yards, 13 receiving yards, 2 TD). WR Robert Woods, BUF: Led all Week 9 WR with 67 DYAR (caught 10 of 13 passes for 162 yards, 8 first downs).

* * * * *

All stats pages are now updated through Week 9 of 2016. There may be some errors because of technical problems with the play-by-play feeds this week, so feel free to let us know if you find any of them. Snap counts, playoff odds, and the premium DVOA database are also fully updated.

Update: Unfortunately, the technical issues with NFL feeds mean we will not be able to update drive stats or pace stats for an unknown period of time. We are working on a solution to the problem, but until then, those pages will not be updated.

* * * * *

[ad placeholder 4]

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through nine weeks of 2016, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. Opponent adjustments are currently at 90 percent strength; they will hit 100 percent next week. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 PHI 27.5% 1 27.8% 1 4-4 -7.8% 23 -24.5% 1 10.8% 1 2 DAL 21.7% 2 22.3% 2 7-1 20.8% 2 -1.2% 14 -0.3% 17 3 SEA 20.6% 6 19.8% 5 5-2-1 1.6% 14 -17.7% 6 1.3% 10 4 ATL 20.4% 5 22.1% 3 6-3 24.3% 1 8.0% 24 4.1% 6 5 NE 19.3% 4 21.0% 4 7-1 18.4% 3 1.7% 18 2.6% 8 6 DEN 14.4% 3 15.2% 6 6-3 -6.0% 22 -19.8% 2 0.7% 13 7 GB 9.4% 7 9.0% 7 4-4 4.3% 11 -7.7% 7 -2.6% 22 8 MIN 8.9% 8 8.5% 9 5-3 -10.3% 25 -18.1% 4 1.1% 12 9 OAK 8.5% 11 8.6% 8 7-2 17.6% 4 10.3% 27 1.2% 11 10 BUF 5.6% 9 6.3% 11 4-5 13.2% 6 6.3% 22 -1.3% 20 11 KC 5.5% 10 5.4% 12 6-2 -5.3% 21 -6.2% 11 4.6% 5 12 MIA 4.7% 18 6.9% 10 4-4 -4.3% 20 -6.3% 10 2.8% 7 13 SD 4.7% 14 4.4% 13 4-5 0.9% 15 -7.6% 8 -3.8% 25 14 NYG 3.8% 17 3.8% 15 5-3 -2.7% 18 -7.2% 9 -0.7% 19 15 WAS 2.8% 16 4.1% 14 4-3-1 6.1% 9 3.8% 21 0.5% 15 16 CHI 2.5% 15 3.7% 16 2-6 1.8% 13 -0.1% 16 0.6% 14 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 PIT 2.1% 12 0.2% 18 4-4 5.6% 10 3.0% 19 -0.6% 18 18 ARI 1.8% 13 1.4% 17 3-4-1 -10.5% 26 -18.2% 3 -5.9% 30 19 CIN -0.9% 19 -0.4% 19 3-4-1 12.5% 7 7.6% 23 -5.8% 29 20 NO -1.9% 23 -1.4% 20 4-4 17.3% 5 16.2% 29 -2.9% 23 21 TEN -4.0% 22 -4.1% 21 4-5 10.1% 8 8.9% 26 -5.1% 27 22 BAL -4.1% 20 -5.0% 22 4-4 -24.5% 32 -17.8% 5 2.6% 9 23 CAR -6.8% 21 -7.3% 23 3-5 -1.0% 17 0.6% 17 -5.3% 28 24 LARM -10.3% 25 -7.9% 24 3-5 -21.3% 30 -6.2% 12 4.9% 4 25 TB -11.4% 26 -12.9% 26 3-5 -3.8% 19 3.6% 20 -4.0% 26 26 IND -12.4% 28 -12.0% 25 4-5 0.5% 16 19.8% 30 6.9% 2 27 DET -12.4% 24 -13.2% 27 5-4 3.8% 12 21.3% 32 5.0% 3 28 JAC -13.5% 27 -13.7% 28 2-6 -12.2% 28 -0.5% 15 -1.8% 21 29 SF -22.3% 29 -24.6% 29 1-7 -11.6% 27 10.4% 28 -0.3% 16 30 HOU -26.6% 30 -27.6% 30 5-3 -23.5% 31 -3.4% 13 -6.6% 31 31 CLE -32.5% 32 -32.2% 31 0-9 -8.1% 24 20.7% 31 -3.8% 24 32 NYJ -32.6% 31 -33.1% 32 3-6 -17.2% 29 8.0% 24 -7.4% 32

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).