Excerpt: "Two years after the 2010 midterm elections decimated their ranks, the coalition of conservative Democrats is poised to get pummeled again in November - moving the Blue Dogs dangerously close to extinction."



Blue Dog Democrats may be going the way of the dinosaurs. (art: Matt Wuerker/Politico)

Blue Dog Democrats Face Extinction

By Alex Isenstadt, Politico

ust when the Blue Dogs thought it couldn't get any worse, it did.

Two years after the 2010 midterm elections decimated their ranks, the coalition of conservative Democrats is poised to get pummeled again in November - moving the Blue Dogs dangerously close to extinction.

Of the 24 remaining Blue Dogs, five are not seeking reelection. More than a half-dozen others are facing treacherous contests in which their reelection hopes are in jeopardy.

It's a rough time to occupy the right wing of the Democratic Party.

"It's a tough environment out there," said former Alabama Rep. Bud Cramer, a longtime member of the House Blue Dog Coalition. "Their numbers are down. Redistricting has not been kind to them."

Cramer nailed it: Redistricting is at the root of the Blue Dog problem. The once-in-a-decade line-drawing has forced some of them to compete for seats that have become even less friendly to Democrats - and those seats weren't very friendly to begin with. Utah Rep. Jim Matheson, Georgia Rep. John Barrow and North Carolina Rep. Mike McIntyre are among those who have been thrust into deeply Republican territory after being targeted in GOP-led redistricting efforts in their home states.

All three members are regarded as strong and experienced campaigners who have figured out a way to survive on politically perilous turf. Still, 2012 will prove to be the toughest election any of them has faced. Each has drawn serious Republican opposition and they rank high atop GOP target lists. For months, the National Republican Congressional Committee has been airing TV and radio ads against the trio in an attempt to soften up their support well before the fall campaign season kicks into high gear.

Two other Blue Dogs - Pennsylvania Rep. Jason Altmire and Iowa Rep. Leonard Boswell - have been drawn into districts with another member of Congress, forcing them to wage bitter, expensive brawls against another sitting incumbent.

Altmire, a third-term Blue Dog, now faces Rep. Mark Critz in an April 24 primary. Many Democratic officials believe Altmire is the favorite, reasoning that he has previously represented more of the newly drawn southwestern Pennsylvania-based seat than the more junior Critz, and polls released by both campaigns have shown Altmire leading.

But Critz has fought back aggressively, collecting the endorsements of the area's powerful organized labor groups and former President Bill Clinton, whose backing could help with the area's blue-collar voters.

Boswell, meanwhile, is competing against GOP Rep. Tom Latham in a new southwestern Iowa-based district. While Boswell at first appeared to be the early front-runner, Democrats now worry about his slow fundraising pace compared with Latham's ever-ballooning war chest. Latham has also received air support from American Crossroads, a deep-pocketed third-party group that has crowded the airwaves with TV ads taking aim at Boswell.

For Pennsylvania Rep. Tim Holden, another Blue Dog, redistricting has created another kind of problem. When Republicans redrew his central Pennsylvania seat, they created a district far more liberal than Holden's old one - one at odds with the conservative record he has compiled during his two decades in the House. Holden has drawn a serious primary challenge from Matt Cartwright, a liberal attorney who has called the incumbent out of step with the new district. In a troubling sign for the incumbent, Cartwright outraised him by nearly $300,000 during the first quarter.

For a few Blue Dogs, the problems presented by redistricting are compounded by the challenges of running in conservative Southern states during a presidential election year. Kentucky Rep. Ben Chandler, McIntyre and Barrow must run in states where President Barack Obama's unpopularity threatens to trickle down the ballot and damage their reelection bids.

The NRCC has already launched a vigorous effort tying Barrow to Obama, running TV ads during this month's Masters golf tournament in Augusta, Ga., calling Barrow and Obama "the wrong pairing for Georgia." The committee has also launched a website, "BarrowObama.com," which highlights Obama's endorsement of Barrow during the congressman's difficult 2008 reelection race.

The NRCC has also run TV ads blasting McIntyre for his support for the Obama-proposed economic stimulus package and has run spots showing footage of Chandler praising the president during the 2008 campaign.

Former Louisiana Rep. Charlie Melancon, a onetime Blue Dog leader who lost a 2010 Senate race, said ongoing discomfort about Obama's race in some corners of the South made it hard for Democrats running on the ballot with him. Blue Dogs running in the Midwest, Melancon predicted, would fare better.

"I think in the South, it's going to be quite difficult," said Melancon, who recalled Republicans running a seemingly endless loop of TV ads attaching him to Obama. "If you get tied to the president, it's more about race than the economy or other stuff."

Recognizing the possibility of further erosion, the Blue Dogs have endorsed a handful of candidates looking to win seats, including some who are looking to replace outgoing coalition members. But in each case, the candidates are running for Republican-friendly seats, making their bids uphill.

Andrew Whalen, who serves as a political consultant for the Blue Dog Coalition PAC, dismissed concerns that the group could become nearly extinct, arguing that nearly half of the current members were in strong shape for reelection and that others would survive tough bids.

"The Blue Dog Coalition will continue to be a strong voice in Congress in 2013 and beyond. Our members are all tough, tenacious and experienced campaigners," Whalen said. "More importantly, they have all represented their districts and their constituents well, and that is why they have been and will be reelected."

Cramer likened the plight of Blue Dogs to the one confronting conservative House Democrats following the 1994 midterm elections, when their ranks dwindled. Cramer argued that Blue Dogs would either lose or gain several seats this year and said they would be positioned to rebuild after the election.

Former Tennessee Rep. John Tanner, who survived the 1994 landslide and then helped to found the Blue Dogs in 1995, argued that they would eventually make a comeback.

"At some point, the American people in small numbers are going to rebel against the unbelievable partisanship that grips the place," he said. "It's not there yet, but it's coming."