The United States national team will be watching the World Cup from their living rooms after disastrously failing to qualify for next month’s tournament in Russia, but in the eyes of former manager Jürgen Klinsmann it’s not for lack of talent.

Klinsmann, who has resurfaced in a series of interviews this week after an extended period of radio silence following his removal as USA manager in November 2016, believes the Americans could have reached the semi-finals in Russia.

“I realistically saw a group growing into the World Cup 2018 that could go into a semi-final,” Klinsmann told Yahoo Sports in an interview published Thursday.

Klinsmann was relieved of his post in November shortly after the US lost successive games to Mexico and Costa Rica early in their doomed qualifying campaign. The team briefly recovered under replacement Bruce Arena and appeared positioned to qualify after earning a rare point at Mexico’s Estadio Azteca, but a stunning final-reel defeat to Trinidad & Tobago, when they needed only a draw with the world’s 99th-ranked team to secure a play-off spot, sealed their fate.

Still, Klinsmann believes the United States would have managed to put the moribund qualifying campaign, where they scratched out 12 points in 10 matches, behind them in Russia: “The World Cup has nothing to do with the four years prior to that. It’s a completely new chapter.”

He added: “We almost didn’t qualify for Italy in 1990 with Germany ... We had to win our last game against Wales, and I still remember that Mark Hughes missed a 100% chance two minutes before the end of the game. He had a free header and he put it over the bar. If he puts that in, we’re not going to Italy. And then we won the World Cup.”

It’s possible Klinsmann’s assessment is grounded in the United States’ track record for punching above their modest weight in major tournaments. USA are one of only eight countries – along with Argentina, Brazil, England, Germany, Mexico, Holland and Spain – to have reached the knockout stage at three of the last four World Cups. They managed to halt Spain’s 35-game unbeaten streak during a memorable run to the 2009 Confederations Cup final and consistently show well in their continental championship.

Still, it all feels a bit quixotic after the USA’s failure to survive perhaps the most lenient of World Cup qualifying paths, where the margin for error is as friendly as it gets.

Klinsmann oversaw the national team for 98 matches following his appointment in 2011. His 55 victories, against 28 losses and 15 draws, rank second all time behind Bruce Arena’s 83. But his record against opponents ranked in the top 20 of Fifa’s world rankings – two victories, eight losses, two draws and a minus-10 goal differential – was the worst in modern national team history.

The gulf in class was showcased at Copa América Centenario in 2016. Although the US reached the semi-final they were thoroughly outplayed when they came up against the best sides in the tournament, losing 2-0 to Colombia and 4-0 to Argentina.

Klinsmann said he believes the Copa América experience would have served the players well in Russia.

“It was so valuable to play Copa America because it gave the players a sense of where they were, that they can beat South American opponents, good teams like Paraguay, Ecuador,” he said. “I think it was really huge for that group of players.”