No-deal Brexit 'would send food prices soaring and risk recession', claim academics

Emilio Casalicchio

A no-deal Brexit would dramatically increase the price of food, risk a recession and leave Brits living on the continent in “legal limbo,” academics have warned.



Professors from the independent UK in a Changing Europe (UKCE) think tank said the consequences of crashing out of the EU without a deal would be “severe”.

The Government insisted it was not expecting a no-deal Brexit - but noted that it was making preparations for every eventuality.

Ministers have ramped up planning for a no-deal scenario in recent weeks, as the November deadline for negotiations with the bloc looms.

Britain has been pushing for an agreement encompassing trade, security and numerous other aspects of daily life once the UK quits in March 2019.

But talks with EU negotiators have been rocky, while there remains uncertainty over whether MPs would accept the deal the Government is attempting to strike with Brussels.

Theresa May last week played down a previous warning from the Treasury over the economic impact of a no-deal departure - but the risks have been laid bare in a new study by the UKCE.

It said a no-deal Brexit would be “chaotic” because “many of the rules underpinning the UK’s economic and regulatory structures” would simply vanish with nothing to take their place.

Supply chains for UK firms could be severed, with food prices at risk of soaring by up to 7.3% alongside a hike in inflation, the paper said.

It noted that a short-term recession would be “clearly possible,” UK airlines would lose access to EU markets, and supermarkets, medical suppliers and online retailers would be hit by border checks.

The report added that although the rights of EU citizens in the UK would be secure, British citizens living in the EU “would be in legal limbo and reliant on EU member states’ interpretation of the law”.

Professor Anand Menon, director of UKCE, said: “Make no mistake, the impact of a no deal Brexit will be severe. In the short term at least, considerable uncertainty and disruption will result.

“While it is wise to plan for no deal, and indeed attempt to mitigate against the worst aspects of a chaotic Brexit, it makes far more sense to avoid such an outcome altogether.”

'HANGING OVER THE PRECIPICE'

Labour MP Stephen Doughty, speaking on behalf of the anti-Brexit People’s Vote campaign, said a no-deal Brexit would be “disastrous for our country in almost every way imaginable”.

“But the only reasons we’re even discussing this is because the Government is botching Brexit,” he added.

“It’s increasingly clear that both no deal or a bad Brexit deal will be hugely damaging to the future of our country, from the economy to public services like the NHS."

Lib Dem MP Layla Moran, speaking for the Best for Britain campaign, said the report was “a damning indictment on the government and their mishandling of this whole process”.

She added: “No deal Brexit will rip apart our everyday lives and threaten our economy. This now is not project fear - it's near and we are hanging over the precipice.”

But a spokesperson for the Department for Exiting the European Union said: “We do not want or expect a no deal scenario.

"As a result of the significant progress made in negotiations, we are increasingly confident that we will secure a deal with the EU. However, it is the duty of any responsible government to prepare for every eventuality."

The spokesperson added: "We have developed contingency plans with the aim of minimising disruption as much as possible in the unlikely event of a no deal scenario."

NO-DEAL PAPERS

Ministers last month published 25 papers laying out advice to businesses, public bodies and the public on how best to prepare for the possibility of Britain leaving the EU without a deal in March 2019.

The ‘technical notices’ included warnings that card charges on the continent could rise, while Brits living in Europe could lose access to bank accounts and pensions.

They showed that the UK faced a swamp of extra regulation in the event of a no-deal Brexit and would need to negotiate with the EU to ensure key elements of crucial sectors can stay afloat.