Aggregates Of All Major Polls For Last 18 Weeks

Of course, this rate may not continue. It could increase, or decrease, in general. But it has been extremely consistent and extremely strong; and if it stays generally the same (or increases), for just 2 more months, Bernie's popularity will exceed Hillary's, and he'll be set to win the Democratic Primary.

Breakdown:

~ Bernie Sanders has increased in popularity among likely Democratic Primary voters, every single week, for the last 10 weeks; and for 94.4% of the last 18 weeks.

~ The gap between Bernie and Hillary has decreased every single week for the last 7 weeks; and for 14 of the last 18 weeks.

~ The gap between Bernie and Hillary has been decreasing at an accelerating rate, and regularly, for the great majority of the past 18 weeks.

~ The gap between Bernie and Hillary decreased at the greatest speed over the most recent of these 18 weeks: a 10.7% gain for Bernie, in a single week – cutting the gap by almost a third.

Three Probable Scenarios:

~ Bernie has gained on Hillary at an average of 1.15% per week, over the last 18 weeks. Even if the current trend ceased accelerating, and simply continued at a linear rate, Bernie will still be more popular than Hillary in 21 weeks from now – about 5 months. Which is before any of the primaries start.

~ BUT: With the average rate of acceleration we've seen, of .853% per week additional gain, the stats show Bernie surpassing Hillary in a mere 6.5 weeks – about 4 months before the primaries begin. This is the most likely scenario, statistically speaking. You can look at the chart and see for yourself how the gap has been closing faster and faster, for months; and how it's been closing the fastest of all over the last few weeks.

~ Finally: statistical changes in recent weeks are more significant than statistical changes in the earliest weeks, when it comes to predicting immediate future trends. So, if we base our predictions on just the last 3-6 weeks of changes, instead of the last 18, we see the gap decreasing by 4.0% to 5.2% per week -- far beyond the 18 week average of 1.15% per week. If this continues, we can expect Bernie's popularity to surpass Hillary's in just 5 weeks. And that's without even including the existing acceleration.

Conclusions: The Sanders Surge is solid, consistent, and rapid. It has been increasing or accelerating virtually every single week, for the past 18 weeks; and especially during the most recent, most relevant ones. With or without calculating for acceleration, and whether you look at recent weeks or go all the way back to the start of his campaign, these polls strongly suggest that Bernie's popularity will surpass Hillary's – and will do so months before the first primaries even start.

So: unless something dramatically changes in Hillary's favor, Bernie is set to beat Hillary, in the polls, and by a huge margin. And keep in mind that it is equally possible for something to dramatically improve this already-winning rate of change in Bernie's favor, too.



Therefore: Any way you look at it, based on all the polls, Bernie is well on track to winning the Democratic primaries. That is the most likely scenario, statistically.

Now there are various big negative events, or big positive events, that are likely to come, and that will change these numbers. I've seen about as much evidence for each. For example: the more popular Bernie gets, the more seriously he's taken, and the more popular this allows him to get. Or the view that his gains will slow down as he advances into more mainstream Democrat territory. Or: when Bernie picks up a relatively mainstream running mate, such as Joe Biden, this will help him increase his gains greatly. There are countless such points, each with varying degrees of validity. And I've seen people put them together in dramatically different combinations.

Regardless of those issues, The Sanders Surge remains well established, consistent, and rapid. And while only a fool would say the nomination is all wrapped up for Bernie, it would be equally foolish to say he's NOT on track to win.

Which means we just went from “Bernie Can't Win”, to “Bernie CAN Win”, and are now on to...

BERNIE IS ON TRACK TO WIN

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SOURCES:

→ Polling Data From RealClearPolitics.com(combined aggregates from all major polls: CNN, Gallup, PPP, NBC/WSJ, Quinnipiac, ABC, and so on)

