The Brexit party has launched its general election campaign, threatening to take votes in both Tory and Labour heartlands. However, due to a heavily divided electorate, experts explain why their claims are far from straightforward.

Can Nigel Farage’s Brexit party really dent the Conservative vote?

Yes, it can. Experts say that in recent years the Conservative vote has been directly impacted by Farage, whether that is from his previous party, Ukip, or his current party. “The two things are directly related,” said Robert Ford, a professor of politics at the University of Manchester.

Polling has previously shown that between 50-60% of the 2015 Ukip vote went to the Conservatives in 2017, and when the Conservatives did less well in 2015 it was because the Ukip vote soared. Far more of the former Ukip voters of 2015 drifted to the Tories in 2017 than went to Labour, which is why, Ford suggests, “all things being equal the Conservatives stand to lose more from the Brexit party standing”.

Chris Hanretty, a professor of politics at Royal Holloway, University of London, said: “I think that targeting Labour might be the kind of thing you do to remain politically relevant while not hurting the Conservative majority that can deliver some form of Brexit.”

Is Farage right to say the party might have success in Labour heartlands?

This is a bold claim considering the majority of Labour voters in leave constituencies were remain supporters, according to Ford. Although many Labour MPs have talked publicly about the fact they need to represent their Labour leave voters, academics suggest the proportion of Labour leavers has been overstated.

“The Labour leave voters are much fewer in number than people seem to think,” said Hanretty.

In the Nottinghamshire constituency of Bassetlaw, for example, the majority of Labour voters backed remain. Further evidence that the Brexit party hit the Tories harder than Labour comes from the British election study after the 2019 European parliamentary election, where 60-70% of Brexit party voters had the Tories as their second preference, not Labour.

Why do the Lib Dems matter?

The Liberal Democrats might at first seem irrelevant to the Brexit party’s possible success, but the performance of the Lib Dems in marginal seats could affect results significantly, either ushering Farage’s party to victory or snatching it away. Ford said many of the seats are “four-way equations”, balancing Labour, Lib Dem, Tory and Brexit party votes.

Even marginal Mansfield, where the Lib Dem vote in 2017 was just 697, could be a volatile seat and one to watch if it eats into the Labour vote. Polling since the European parliament elections shows the remain vote is roughly evenly split between Labour and the Lib Dems. That makes losses of remain voters to the Lib Dems a big problem for Labour, and in turn could split the vote enough to allow the Tories or Brexit party a victory in certain seats.

Will the Brexit party take any seats?

Some do not rate their chances, with Hanretty saying: “I’m generally pessimistic that they will win any seats.” Farage said his strategy was to go after seats in the north-east, Wales, the Midlands and the Kent coast, and he believes there are 150 where there is a reasonable chance of success.

