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The latest official Florence forecast puts the odds of any direct landfall in New Jersey at near nil, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Instead, the storm seems destined to crash into the Carolinas as a major hurricane late Thursday or early Friday morning, but that doesn't mean we here in the Garden State are completely out of the woods.

Local stormwatchers say it's where Florence goes after landfall that has them worried.

How will the hurricane come ashore? Does it barrel deep inland or stall over the coast? Is it curving as it strikes land or headed due west?

"If (Florence) stays farther south then we might not get anything from it," said Alex Staarmann, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's station in Mount Holly. "Whereas if it makes landfall in the Outer Banks, if it has some kind of northerly drift to it, then we’re likely to get some impacts."

Those impacts could include heavy rainfall, gusty winds and intense tidal flooding.

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An unsettled ocean is already triggering a beach-chewing surf and coastal flooding concerns here and will continue to do so through the rest of the week.

The threat emanates from the combination of northeastern winds, constant rain and Florence's swells that continue to pulse toward the East Coast.

Leading up to and after this morning's high tide, the National Weather Service is warning that seaside towns in Monmouth and Ocean counties could see moderate flooding, including widespread road closures.

Earlier this morning, the National Hurricane Center announced that Florence has regained Category 3 status, and the NHC anticipates the storm to continue building strength. Florence was reclassified as a Category 4 mere hours later.(Warmer waters and weak counteracting winds) are expected to lead to significant strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and Florence is forecast to be a very powerful major hurricane on its approach to the southeastern United States." reads the latest guidance from the NHC.

Today, September 10, is the traditional zenith peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. After a quiet August, conditions have ripened for tropical storms and Florence is one of three tropical storms — Helene and Isaac are the others — in the Atlantic Ocean right now.

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How powerful is Florence?

As of Monday morning, Florence is a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 130 mph. Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph or higher) extend 140 miles from the center of the storm.

Florence reached Category 4 status on Wednesday but she faced stiff resistance through Friday. The storm rebounded over the weekend.

NASA satellites reported the cloud tops near the center of the storm were nearly twice as cold (minus 113 degrees) on Saturday morning as they were the day before when the storm was being ripped apart by wind shear.

"The colder the cloud tops, the stronger the storms and the greater the capability to produce heavy rain," NASA's latest Florence update reads.

AccuWeather expects Florence to be a Category 4 hurricane by the time she approaches the East Coast.

Category 4 storms produce winds of at least 130 mph and wreak "catastrophic damage" on areas that are directly impacted, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur Wednesday night or Thursday ... and approach the southeastern coast of the United States on Thursday," the NHC says.

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Where is it headed?

This is the million dollar question.

Even though the NHC is now forecasting landfall somewhere between South Carolina and Virginia that is just the best guess at this point. The error bars are about 180 miles, on average, for a storm that is five days away, according to the NHC.

Landfall is unlikely in New Jersey, even a brushing, but the closer the storm gets to us before exiting the ocean increases the risk that it could bound our way in the days after.

As of this morning, Florence is still 1,200 miles southeast of Cape Lookout in North Carolina.

The forecasting models have continued to bend Florence's expected path toward the southwest. That's good news for New Jersey, but bittersweet as it means a destructive hurricane is bound for our neighbors in the Southeast.

The scenario that saw Florence turn sharply out to sea or land only a glancing blow has now become the least likely outcome, according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

“Residents and interests living along and near the Carolina coast and even up toward the Virginia Capes should closely monitor Florence and be ready to put their hurricane plan in place,” Kottlowski said in a post on AccuWeather.com this morning. “If you do not have a hurricane plan in place, do so immediately.”

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What's the risk to New Jersey?

This would obviously be dependent on the track. If this storm is going to make landfall, that would by the end of this week. You can see some of the possibilities in model runs by the GFS, the federal government's official forecasting tool, in the image above.

However, New Jersey will continue to experience at least some of the secondary effects that a storm of this size and strength can create — even if it stays a couple hundred miles away.

Remember Hurricane Jose, which formed a year ago this week. The dangerous surf churned up by Jose, which never made landfall in America, was blamed for the deaths of three bathers on the Shore.

By Wednesday, meteorologists should have a more precise idea of where landfall will occur, which in turn will inform what other factors will influence Florence's path over land, said Staarmann, of the NWS in Mount Holly.

Right now, Florence is expected to "wobble around" — meander and dump rain on whatever unfortunate area she finds herself — after landfall, but that doesn't mean she can't cut a path toward the Northeast.

"A tropical storm like this can keep produce rainfall for several days after it makes landfall," Staarmann said.

A high surf advisory and coastal flooding warning are in effect for the Shore area today and tidal flooding will linger all week long.

"With 4 to 6 consecutive high tide cycles of flooding, there is an increasing concern for prolonged back bay flooding," the Mount Holly office of the National Weather Service writes in this morning's forecast. "Water will have little chance to drain out of back bays in between the high tide cycles, so flooding issues could be exacerbated with subsequent high tide cycles. ... The one to three inches of expected fresh water rainfall could further exacerbate flooding around the back bays as associated runoff will have difficulty draining."

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What should you do?

At this point, the most prudent action is to keep checking with a trusted weather source — the Press will be updating this story as the storm evolves — and to replenish your emergency kit. Watch the video at the top for some basics.

“My suggestion for everyone out there is to check your supplies. Do you have bottled water? Do you have batteries? Prepare like you’re getting ready for nor’easter season anyway," Steve DiMartino, founder and lead meteorologist for Weather Concierge, a private weather forecaster, told the Press last week. "You don’t have to freak out, but it’s better to have those supplies on hand than to have to go out when everybody else is scrambling.”

The other danger to be aware of is the rough surf.

Many Shore beaches closed for the season after Labor Day, which means there are fewer lifeguarded beaches to swim at, especially on weekdays.

Never swim in the ocean without a lifeguard nearby, but that goes double for when rip currents are expected, as they will be in advance of this storm.

Check back at app.com every day to see if severe weather is headed your way.

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Russ Zimmer: 732-557-5748, razimmer@app.com, @russzimmer