Propelled by overwhelming support from white women, MJ Hegar is way out in front in the crowded race for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, according to results released Tuesday of an online survey by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs.

But, with nearly half of likely Democratic primary voters saying they don’t know whom they are going to vote for or don’t plan on voting for any of the dozen Democratic candidates, the survey suggests that any one of a handful of other candidates could place second in the March 3 primary and end up competing with Hegar in a May 26 runoff, if, as appears likely, Hegar does not win a majority on Super Tuesday.

Among voters expressing a preference, Hegar, a decorated Air Force helicopter pilot from Round Rock, leads with 41%. Next closest were state Sen. Royce West of Dallas at 12.3%; former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell of Houston, who was the party’s 2006 nominee for governor, at 10.8%; and Austin activist and organizer Cristina Tzintzun Ramirez at 8.3%.

While Hegar is the top choice among Latino voters who expressed a preference, with 22.8%, Tzintzun Ramirez is close behind at 19.6%. With the high-profile endorsements of Tzintzun Ramirez last week from U.S. Reps. Joaquin Castro, D-San Antonio, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., she appears poised to challenge Hegar among Hispanic voters and contend for the second runoff spot.

The online survey was conducted Feb. 6-18 with 1,352 YouGov respondents, resulting in a confidence interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

Amanda Edwards, who did not seek reelection as an at-large member of the Houston City Council in 2019, was running the poorest among what were considered the top tier of candidates based on experience, money raised and newspaper endorsements, placing seventh with only 5% of the vote.

Hegar is the choice of 59.8% of Anglo voters with a preference. Her support among Anglo women, who are expected to account for about 1 in 3 Texas Democratic primary voters, is at 64.7%.

West is the top choice of black voters, at 28.5%, followed by Hegar at 18.1%, Bell at 14.6% and Edwards at 12%.

Hegar leads in all regions except the border. Hegar, who ran a close but losing campaign against U.S. Rep. John Carter, R-Round Rock, in 2018, is most popular in metro Austin, where she is the choice of two-thirds of voters.

The incumbent, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, is facing four little-known rivals in the Republican primary.

The challenge for Democrats is that even Hegar, the best-known candidate, is an unknown quantity for more than half of likely Democratic primary voters. The same is true for 63% of Democratic voters with regard to West and Bell, and more than 70% of Democrats for Tzintzun Ramirez.