Preseason rankings of any kind are a daunting task. But preseason rankings of MLB starting rotations? Yikes.



It doesn’t take much for a top-tier caliber rotation to crumble and end up at the bottom of the pack over the course of the grueling 162-game season. For example if Clayton Kershaw gets hurt (please, baseball gods, don’t let this happen), the Dodgers staff suddenly isn’t so impressive. In other words, it’s pretty much impossible to accurately predict which starting rotations will thrive and which will fail. But, you know what? That’s what we’re going to try to do.

Now before we get into the rankings, let me be crystal clear: I know exactly what I’m getting myself into by ranking the rotations of all 30 MLB teams. If you’re the type of person who’ll throw a tantrum if the 16th ranked rotation doesn’t seem as good as the rotation ranked 15th, please just save yourself a brain aneurism and ex out of this page. These rankings aren’t “correct,” neither are yours, and the truth is neither of us know what the hell is going to happen in 2016. Not a damn clue.

So if you’re still reading, I’m assuming you’re OK with me having an opinion. Great! Here are the preseason starting rotation rankings- made at the end of January when the offseason is still in full swing- that don’t matter whatsoever:

30. Philadelphia Phillies



It’ll be interesting to see what promising 22-year-old righty Aaron Nola can do this year, but for now the Phillies staff will sit right here at the bottom of the barrel. Jeremy Hellickson (4.62 ERA with Arizona last season) isn’t going to make any magic happen as this team rebuilds, but at least Phillies fans will get the chance to see some young, exciting arms in action.

29. Atlanta Braves

The only reason the Braves aren’t dead last here is Julio Teheran, who I believe will have a bounce-back season in 2016. The rest of the projected rotation consists mostly of guys I had to look up because while I consider myself “knowledgable” about baseball, I’m not an encyclopedia. That doesn’t bode well for this Braves squad, which like the Phillies is in a rebuilding phase.

28. Colorado Rockies

Ho-hum…another season, another puke-worthy Rockies pitching staff. The extraordinarily mediocre Jorge De La Rosa anchors the rotation once again, and what follows are a group of guys who couldn’t keep their ERAs under 4.00 if the human race depended on it. Seriously, if aliens invade earth and demand the Rockies rotation keep their ERAs under 4.00 or they’ll wipe us all out, we’re so screwed. I think I just unintentionally came up with an idea for a baseball version of Space Jam.

27. Minnesota Twins

I’m officially scared to death of being critical of the Twins ever since my unbelievably inaccurate 2015 preseason American League Central projections where I had them finishing last (feel free to click this link and laugh/call me a big dumb idiot). That being said, I’m going to be critical again (damn it). I’m not about to get excited over a rotation with Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana as the 1-2 punch followed by three guys you couldn’t name if you had a gun to your head (if you can name them, good for you, show-off).

26. Milwaukee Brewers

The Brew Crew didn’t do anything to improve a rotation that, to put things in simple terms, sucked in 2015. Matt Garza, who Milwaukee put a ton of stock in when they acquired him, fell off the face of the earth in 2015 and posted a 5.63 ERA (that’s NOT good). Wily Peralta and Jimmy Nelson leave much to be desired as top-of-the-rotation guys, and nothing about bottom of the rotation is going to make Brewers fans optimistic.

25. Baltimore Orioles

Losing Wei-Yen-Chen hurts, because now the rotation lacks a starter the O’s can trot out every fifth day and feel confident they’ll get a quality start. That isn’t an ideal. Each guy in the rotation has enough potential to put together a solid year, but that potential isn’t good enough to rank Baltimore any higher than this spot.

24. Cincinnati Reds

The bad news: No more Johnny Cueto or Mike Leake. The good news: Homer Bailey will return from Tommy John surgery and…well that’s pretty much it. Though, Raisel Iglesias could take a step forward in his second season while Anthony DeSclafani attempts to prove capable of being a reliable front-end of the rotation arm. It’s certainly not a great staff, but there’s at least some reason for positivity.

23. Los Angeles Angels

Don’t let Garrett Richards’ 2015 season in which he returned from ACL surgery fool you, there’s no reason this guy can’t return to stud status this year. The Angels will need him to do so if they’re to avoid having a dreadful staff. Richards is followed by veterans C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver. The former improved slightly compared to his 2014 season, while the latter struggled to throw harder fastballs than an above-average high school baseball player. The Halos have plenty of guys capable of starting if things go awry, so depth isn’t an issue, talent is (and talent tends to be important).

22. Toronto Blue Jays

Well, that whole David Price thing was fun! But now it’s back to square one for Toronto as they again search for a proven ace. They might have that guy in Marcus Stroman, who’s shown time and time again that he’s capable of taking over such a role. After Stroman, however, things get a bit sketchy. Marco Estrada’s 2015 season was impressive, so the Jays will look for him to build off that rather than regressing back to mediocrity.

21. Oakland Athletics

Sonny Gray is the real deal and Jesse Hahn is a rock-solid number two. After that, it’s really a toss-up. The most likely scenario is Gray and Hahn once again being forced to put the staff on their respective backs, but it’s at least a fairly sturdy group.

20. Miami Marlins

Jose Fernandez is the only reason the Marlins are this high on the list. Acquiring Wei-Yen Chen in free agency helps as well. Unfortunately for Miami, they have nothing else to be happy about except for the return of Giancarlo Stanton. But he isn’t a pitcher, so that doesn’t really help too much here…

19. San Diego Padres

The Padres’ rotation isn’t bad, but it’s not even close to as good as I, as well as many others, expected it to be prior to last season. The talented trio of James Shields, Tyson Ross, and Andrew Cashner was hyped up as a force to be reckoned with, but they turned out to not be anything exceptional. Ross held up his end of the bargain in 2015, but the rest of the rotation needs to step it up if they’re to make any sort of noise this season.

18. Kansas City Royals

The defending World Series champs might be ranked far too low on here for your liking, but their starting pitching isn’t what propelled them to winning it all. That was their bullpen and relentless, scrappy lineup. That isn’t to say their rotation is “bad,” per se, it just isn’t spectacular. Yordano Ventura took a step in the wrong direction in 2015 and got knocked around in the postseason, so he’ll need to figure things out. Edinson Volquez, on the other hand, is solid but no one is referring to him as a true ace.

17. Tampa Bay Rays

You certainly could make an argument for putting the Rays rotation slightly higher on this list, but I’m torn. Chris Archer was phenomenal last season and he’s followed by two solid arms in Jake Odorizzi and Drew Smyly. They need Matt Moore to return to his pre-Tommy John surgery self, and then things could get interesting. I’ll admit, putting Tampa Bay all the way down here at 17th doesn’t feel right, but I’m having a tough time putting them above the teams that follow.

16. Detroit Tigers

The Tigers made the move they needed to make this offseason by signing Jordan Zimmermann, who’ll provide a much-needed boost to this rotation. Justin Verlander’s improvement in 2015 is promising, but Detroit really needs Anibal Sanchez to bounce back from what was an uncharacteristically terrible year. Daniel Norris, acquired in the David Price trade with Totonto, is recovering from thyroid cancer but could prove to be a key contributor down the stretch.

15. New York Yankees

The Yankees’ rotation is sort of an enigma. Masahiro Tanaka was good in 2015, but took a step back compared to his 2014. They’ll need him to produce ace-like numbers while guys like Michael Pineda and promising 21-year-old Luis Severino produce behind him. If everything goes according to plan for the Yankees this year, their rotation could be pretty impressive.

14. Boston Red Sox

I don’t think I need to go into much detail here. If not for the key offseason acquisition of David Price, the Red Sox wouldn’t even sniff the top 15 of this list. But putting a true ace like Price at the top of a rotation does wonders, and optimists would say guys like Clay Buchholz (if he can stay healthy) and Rick Porcello (if he can…uh…figure it the hell out?) could have huge bounce-back years. Though if you’re that much of an optimist, you’re probably not a smart person.

13. Texas Rangers

A 1-2 punch of Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish? Sign me up. The Rangers hope Darvish can return from Tommy John surgery without any setbacks. If that ends up not being the case, Texas might have a problem, but for now let’s assume a healthy Darvish picks up where he left off.

12. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates still have Gerrit Cole, so they’re still going to be on the top half of lists like this one. Francisco Liriano once again will contribute as a nice number-two starter, but Pittsburgh is undoubtedly bummed to lose A.J. Burnett to retirement. Still, it’s a solid group that now includes Jon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong to shore up the rotation.

11. Arizona Diamondbacks

Lots of people are drinking the Diamondbacks Kool-Aid after the team went out and got Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller this offseason, and rightfully so. The addition of Greinke as an ace speaks for itself, and Miller had a stellar 2015 that proves pitching wins aren’t a relevant stat (he went 6-17 with a 3.02 ERA). Oh, and that Patrick Corbin guy behind those two isn’t so bad either.

10. Seattle Mariners

King Felix. OK, now that that’s out of the way, the rest of the rotation is pretty solid as well. Hisashi Iwakuma was re-signed, 23-year-old Taijuan Walker is poised to continue making strides, and the team acquired Wade Miley who struggled in 2015 but could help in the middle of the rotation when it’s all set and done.

9. Houston Astros

When you have the reigning American League Cy Young, you’re pretty much a lock for the top 10 in this list. Dallas Keuchel will look to continue asserting his dominance over AL hitters while Lance McCullers, Collin McHugh, Scott Feldman, Mike Fiers and newly signed Doug Fister each chip in with solid performances, which they’re all more than capable of.

8. Los Angeles Dodgers

As I stated in the intro to this post, this rotation lives and dies by Clayton Kershaw. But that’s just stating the obvious. Adding Scott Kazmir was a great move after losing Zack Greinke, but the rest of the group isn’t anything to write home about. Regardless, any rotation with Kershaw at the top is undeniably special.

7. Cleveland Indians

Corey Kluber didn’t match his 2014 AL Cy Young campaign, but make no mistake about it, he’s still a hell of an ace. He’s again followed in the rotation by one of the better number-two starters in baseball, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar chimes in as a more-than-capable third starter. Altogether, this Cleveland rotation doesn’t have many weaknesses, but it’d be great if they could finally get Trevor Bauer on track. Also, don’t sleep on Cody Anderson. He had a remarkably quiet, yet noteworthy, rookie season in 2015 posting a 3.05 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 91 innings pitched.

6. Chicago White Sox

The obvious attention-grabber here is Chris Sale, but please don’t sleep on Jose Quintana. This is one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball. If Carlos Rodon can step up, build off his solid 2015 season, and be the stud many believe he could be, opposing AL hitters are in for a tough time.

5. Washington Nationals

It’s Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg at the top of the rotation again. Need I say more? Gio Gonzalez is a reliable number-three guy, and after that it doesn’t really matter. This is undoubtedly a top-five group.

4. San Francisco Giants

It’s 2016, which means it’s an even-numbered year, which means it’s time for the Giants to make another World Series run. They’re off to a promising start, as they went out and signed Johnny Cueto to create arguably the best 1-2 punch in baseball this season with him behind Madison Bumgarner. They also signed Jeff Samardzija, and though he had an abysmal 2015 season with the White Sox, he could return to his quality self now that he’s back in the National League.

3. St. Louis Cardinals

You’d think losing John Lackey in free agency and Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery would hurt this rotation, but it still its finds way near the top of the list. Mike Leake was the key addition of the offseason, and having a healthy Adam Wainwright at the top certainly isn’t a bad thing. Jaime Garcia was quietly spectacular in 2015, and if he can come close to repeating that kind of production, St. Louis’ rotation will thrive with Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez in there as well.

2. Chicago Cubs

Jon Lester will reunite with former Red Sox teammate John Lackey in 2016, which forms a hell of a 1-2-3 for the Cubbies with Jake Arrieta as the ace. Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks aren’t slouches at the bottom of the rotation, either.

1. New York Mets

This really should be unanimous. Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard are the best 1-2-3 in baseball at the moment, and the Mets have a talented guy named Steven Matz as the fourth starter who will join in on the fun this year and build off an impressive showing in limited innings last season. Bartolo Colon, who’s somehow still awesome, will hold down the back of the rotation until Zack Wheeler (yet another potential stud) returns from Tommy John surgery. This group is borderline unfair.