POLITICO Playbook: A gutting few weeks for the GOP Presented by Amazon

On Thursday night, Texas Rep. Will Hurd -- the only black Republican in the House -- announced he would not run for reelection. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

DRIVING THE DAY

IF YOU ARE A HOUSE REPUBLICAN, this has been an absolutely gutting few weeks. And, truly, if someone is trying to spin you on how the political picture is not that bad for the House GOP right now -- at this moment -- you ought to discount them as a political professional or analyst. Because it’s really, really bad, deflating and discouraging.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT, Texas Rep. WILL HURD -- the only black Republican in the House -- announced he would not run for reelection. He beat Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones by fewer than 1,000 votes in 2018 in a large district that runs the stretch of the Texas-Mexico border -- and she is running again. Republicans like to say this is an R+1 -- fine, perhaps -- but it’s an R+1 that Hillary Clinton won by 3 points, so it’s not much of an R+1.

-- SIDE NOTE: Hurd is particularly close to House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY. When we were traveling with McCarthy for our book just before the 2018 elections, he once startled his Capitol Police detail late one evening after a very long day, agreeing to pay Hurd’s sister a visit at a downtown San Antonio bowling lane. Here’s what he said about Hurd to a group of Republicans during a fundraiser at a restaurant in El Paso just before the 2018 midterms: “Will Hurd is always challenged, but he sets himself apart.”

LET’S REVIEW THE TAPE: In the last two weeks, the following House Republicans have announced they were leaving Congress: Rep. Martha Roby (R-Ala.), one of 13 GOP women; Rep. Paul Mitchell (R-Mich.), a member of leadership; Rep. Pete Olsen (R-Texas), who represents a blueing district outside Houston; Rep. Mike Conaway (R-Texas), a well-respected party elder. Rep. Justin Amash -- an Arab American -- left the party and became an independent. BEFORE ALL THAT: Indiana Rep. Susan Brooks -- the party’s recruitment chair -- decided she would not run again.

A FUN STAT that’s making its way around GOP circles: There are more men named Jim in the House than Republican women running for reelection.

THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS are increasingly white and male. There is no diversity -- quite literally. How can they recruit anything but white men with what their membership looks like right now? If you’re anything but a white man, you look at the House GOP and see very few people that look like you.

HERE’S THE BLEAK REALITY for the House GOP. It’s summer recess, which means lawmakers are home with their families. As soon as the sun will rise, people will be reminded over the summer that being a member of Congress is not as fun as being at home with their kids or family. Plus, being in the minority stinks. This probably won’t get better for Republicans anytime soon. Expect more people to jump ship -- and soon. Rumors are already swirling about another retirement as soon as today.

WE GOT LOTS OF EMAILS Thursday night that the NRCC is now having a worse week than the DCCC. Eh. It’s probably a toss-up.

Good Friday morning. THE PRESIDENT’S TAKE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT’S DEBATE: “The Democrats spent more time attacking Barack Obama than they did attacking me, practically.” More from Gabby Orr on Trump attacking progressives at Thursday night’s rally

SPOTTED: Corey Lewandowski on a 6 a.m. flight from DCA to BOS this morning.

CUE SOME TWEETS … NYT’S ADAM GOLDMAN and KATIE BENNER: “Justice Dept. Declined to Prosecute Comey Over Memos About Trump”: “The Justice Department declined to prosecute the former F.B.I. director James B. Comey after determining that two memos he wrote about his interactions with President Trump contained classified information and examining whether he mishandled the documents, according to people familiar with the matter.

“The F.B.I. upgraded the memos to confidential — the lowest level in the government’s system of classifying information — shortly after the president fired Mr. Comey in May 2017, the people said. Mr. Comey had kept several memos at his home and shared one with a friend when he thought they contained only routine information, but the determination that some memos included classified material prompted the investigation into whether he mishandled them.

“Prosecutors quickly determined the case did not warrant charges, the people said. It is not clear which memos spurred the inquiry, but the upgrade to confidential dealt with foreign relations, a person familiar with the classification review said.” NYT

SCARY -- “Rep. Elijah Cummings’ Baltimore Home Burglarized, Police Say,” by CBS affiliate WJZ’s Rachel Menitoff: “Baltimore Police are investigating after the home of Rep. Elijah Cummings was broken into early Saturday morning. The burglary occurred around 3:40 a.m. at his Baltimore home in the 2000 block of Madison Avenue. At this time, police don’t know if any property was taken. This was several hours before President Donald Trump tweeted criticizing Cummings and his district including Baltimore.” WJZ

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BREAKING OVERNIGHT … AP/BEIJING: “China threatens countermeasures if Trump hikes tariffs”: “China’s government has threatened unspecified ‘necessary countermeasures’ if Trump’s planned tariff hike goes ahead.

“The Commerce Ministry said Trump’s announcement is a violation of his agreement with President Xi Jinping in June to revive negotiations aimed at ending their fight over Beijing’s trade surplus and technology ambitions.

“The ministry said if the U.S. measures took effect, ‘China will have to take necessary countermeasures to resolutely defend its core interests.’ The statement issued Friday continued, ‘All the consequences will be borne by the United States.’” AP

-- WSJ: “Trump’s China Tariff Threat Roils Markets Around the World,” by Steven Russolillo and Joanne Chiu: “The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.5%, led by losses in the basic resources sector. AMS, the semiconductor company, was the worst performer in the region with a drop of 13%.

“In Asia, most regional stock markets declined. Benchmarks in Japan and Hong Kong retreated more than 2%. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite dropped 1.4%. Equities in Australia also weakened.”

-- BEHIND THE SCENES … BLOOMBERG: “Trump Resisted Mnuchin’s Proposal to Warn China of New Tariffs,” by Jennifer Jacobs, Jenny Leonard, Shawn Donnan and Saleha Mohsin: “President Donald Trump resisted giving Beijing advance notice of his intent to slap a new 10% tariff on $300 billion in Chinese goods in an Oval Office meeting before he announced the duties, according to several people familiar with the discussion.

“During the meeting, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer briefed Trump on their talks in Shanghai this week with their Chinese counterparts. While the White House called the talks ‘constructive’ in a statement issued Wednesday, Trump concluded that the two U.S. officials actually came away with nothing, the people said.

“‘When my people came home, they said “we’re talking, we have another meeting in early September,”’ Trump told reporters as he departed the White House on Thursday for a campaign rally. ‘I said “that’s fine, but in the meantime, until such time as there’s a deal, we’ll be taxing them.”’” Bloomberg

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THE COLD WAR WASN’T SO BAD ANYWAY … AP: “U.S.-Russia arms control treaty dies; U.S. to test new weapon,” by Deb Reichmann: “The United States plans to test a new missile in coming weeks that would have been prohibited under a landmark, 32-year-old arms control treaty that the U.S. and Russia ripped up on Friday.

“Washington and Moscow walked out of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty that President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev signed in 1987, raising fears of a new arms race. The U.S. blamed Moscow for the death of the treaty. It said that for years Moscow has been developing and fielding weapons that violate the treaty and threaten the United States and its allies, particularly in Europe.” AP

ELIANA JOHNSON: “Trump to sanction Russia over chemical weapons use”: “President Donald Trump has signed an executive order imposing sanctions on Russia for its use of chemical weapons in the 2018 attack on the Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter, according to two U.S. officials.

“The Trump administration imposed an initial round of sanctions last year, as required by a 1991 law. The same law requires the president to impose a second round of sanctions if he cannot determine that the state in question has stopped using chemical weapons — and U.S. intelligence agencies were unable to make that determination with regard to Russia, which continues to deny responsibility for the attack on the Skripals.” POLITICO

MEMO FOR SENATORS … WAPO: “Trump’s pick for national intelligence director is disengaged from committee work on Capitol Hill, officials say,” by Shane Harris and Greg Miller: “President Trump’s nominee to be the nation’s next spy chief is regarded as a relatively disengaged member of the House Intelligence Committee and is little known across the ranks of spy agencies he has been tapped to lead, according to interviews with congressional and intelligence officials.

“Though Rep. John Ratcliffe’s membership on the House committee is perhaps his most important credential for the top intelligence job, officials said he has yet to take part in one of its overseas trips to learn more about spy agencies’ work. The other new lawmakers on the panel have done so or are scheduled to travel in the coming months.

“It is also unclear whether Ratcliffe (R-Tex) has spent much time at the headquarters of the CIA, the National Security Agency or other parts of the sprawling U.S. intelligence community that he has been nominated to direct.” WaPo

-- DOES THIS MAKE TRUMP more or less likely to stick by him if the going gets tough?

WHAT CAN GO WRONG! … L.A. TIMES: “This California town wants to be a 2nd Amendment ‘sanctuary city’ for guns and ammo,” by Hannah Fry in Needles, Calif.: “In the coming months, city officials hope to somehow cajole the state to allow Needles and possibly other border towns to be exempt from rules on purchasing ammunition, which would allow people here to buy ammo from out of state, and honor concealed carry permits for people who have obtained them outside California.” LAT

2020 WATCH …

-- WHAT EVERYONE IS ASKING … “When Will the 2020 Democratic Field Start to Shrink?” by NYT’s Sydney Ember and Katie Glueck

-- “Nevada GOP may use poll to endorse Trump, not caucus,” by Las Vegas-Review Journal’s Debra Saunders: “The Nevada Republican Party is planning to use a poll of its central committee members to re-nominate President Donald Trump for a second term, rather than the usual caucus process, according to a draft resolution.

“The party will still conduct its precinct caucuses in February, but only to elect delegates to the various county conventions. Those delegates will in turn elect representatives to attend the state convention, where delegates will be nominated to travel to the party’s national convention in Charlotte, North Carolina in August 2020.” LVRJ

TRUMP’S FRIDAY -- The president will make an announcement on “EU trade’” at 1:45 p.m. in the Roosevelt Room. He will leave the White House en route to Bedminster, N.J., at 4 p.m.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) … Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D). Panel: Eddie Glaude Jr., Kasie Hunt, Eliana Johnson and Pat McCrory.

CBS “Face the Nation”: Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas) … Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) … Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) … Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.). Panel: Amy Walter, Jeffrey Goldberg, David Nakamura and Susan Page.

CNN “State of the Union”: Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J). Panel: Terry McAuliffe, Rick Santorum, Stephanie Rawlings-Blake and Kristen Soltis Anderson.

ABC “This Week”: Al Gore. Panel: Rick Klein, Heidi Heitkamp, Stefanie Brown James and Jonah Goldberg.

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Panel: Guy Benson, Charles Lane, Jerry Seib and Gillian Turner.

CNN “Inside Politics”: Jonathan Martin, Catherine Lucey, Toluse Olorunnipa and Heather Caygle.

PLAYBOOK READS

PHOTO DU JOUR: President Donald Trump works the crowd at his Cincinnati campaign rally Thursday night. | John Minchillo/AP Photo

BEN SCHRECKINGER in POLITICO MAGAZINE: “Biden Inc.”: “The day the Bidens took over Paradigm Global Advisors was a memorable one. In the late summer of 2006 Joe Biden’s son Hunter and Joe’s younger brother, James, purchased the firm. On their first day on the job, they showed up with Joe’s other son, Beau, and two large men and ordered the hedge fund’s chief of compliance to fire its president, according to a Paradigm executive who was present.

“After the firing, the two large men escorted the fund’s president out of the firm’s midtown Manhattan office, and James Biden laid out his vision for the fund’s future. ‘Don’t worry about investors,’ he said, according to the executive, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing fear of retaliation. ‘We've got people all around the world who want to invest in Joe Biden.’

“At the time, the senator was just months away from both assuming the chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and launching his second presidential bid. According to the executive, James Biden made it clear he viewed the fund as a way to take money from rich foreigners who could not legally give money to his older brother or his campaign account. ‘We've got investors lined up in a line of 747s filled with cash ready to invest in this company,’ the executive remembers James Biden saying.” POLITICO Magazine

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THE BOSTON GLOBE: “Kennedy family announces death of Saoirse Hill, granddaughter of Ethel Kennedy,” by Danny McDonald, Sofia Saric and Kellen Browning: “Saoirse Kennedy Hill, the 22-year-old granddaughter of Robert F. Kennedy, died of an apparent overdose Thursday at the Kennedy compound, according to her family and law enforcement officials.

“A statement released by Kennedy Hill’s family Thursday night confirmed her death without providing a cause. A source familiar with the investigation said she died at the home of her grandmother, Ethel Kennedy, the 91-year-old widow of Robert F. Kennedy. ‘Our hearts are shattered by the loss of our beloved Saoirse,’ the family said in the statement. ‘Her life was filled with hope, promise and love. . . . We will love her and miss her forever.’” Boston Globe

IN THE MIDDLE EAST -- “Saudi Arabia allows women to travel without male consent,” by AP’s Aya Batrawy in Dubai, United Arab Emirates: “Saudi Arabia published new laws early Friday that loosen restrictions on women by allowing any citizen to apply for a passport and travel freely, ending a long-standing guardianship policy that gave men control over women.

“The changes are a potential game-changer for Saudi women’s rights in the kingdom. The legal system has long been criticized because it treated women as minors throughout their adult lives, requiring they have a man’s consent to obtain a passport or travel abroad. Often a woman’s male guardian is her father or husband, and in some cases a woman’s own son.” AP

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WHAT WALL STREET IS READING … NYT: “Leon Black Plays Down Ties to Jeffrey Epstein but Is Silent on 2011 Deal”

VALLEY TALK -- “FTC Antitrust Probe of Facebook Scrutinizes Its Acquisitions,” by WSJ’s Brent Kendall, John McKinnon and Deepa Seetharaman: “The Federal Trade Commission is examining Facebook Inc.’s acquisitions as part of its antitrust investigation into the social-media giant, seeking to determine if they were part of a campaign to snap up potential rivals to head off competitive threats, according to people familiar with the matter.

“The company’s acquisition practices are a central component of the FTC probe, the people said. Facebook disclosed the FTC’s investigation in its earnings announcement last week but provided few details. FTC investigators are examining whether the company and its CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, purchased technology startups to keep them from challenging Facebook’s empire, the people said, some of whom added that the FTC has begun reaching out to the founders of such companies.” WSJ

-- “Pentagon Delays Award of $10 Billion Cloud Computing Contract,” by NYT’s Scott Shane, Karen Weise and David Sanger: “The Pentagon said on Thursday that it was delaying the award of a hotly contested $10 billion contract for a new generation of computing services for the military until the secretary of defense, Mark T. Esper, could review the matter.

“The announcement came just a week after Mr. Esper’s confirmation and two weeks after President Trump said he would be looking ‘very seriously’ at the contract process to move the military to a cloud-computing system. Mr. Trump said his concern was based on what he called ‘tremendous complaints’ from competitors of Amazon Web Services, the division of the merchandising giant seen as the all-but-certain winner of the contract.” NYT

PLAYBOOKERS

Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at [email protected].

SPOTTED: Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) on a delayed flight from DCA to Manchester after the budget vote Thursday. Pic … Julianne Moore at Le Diplomate on Thursday.

SPOTTED at Meridian International’s social secretaries and cultural attachés celebration Thursday night: White House Social Secretary Rickie Niceta, acting U.S. Chief of Protocol Mary-Kate Fisher, Steve Morrissey, Francesca Craig, Alicia Adams, Luke Frazier, David Adler, Jim and Janet Blanchard, Cameron Nezam, Bill Homan, Frank Islam and Debbie Driesman, Karina Gutierrez, Gazelle Hashemian, Stephenie Foster, Ann Stock, Stuart Holliday, Lee Satterfield, Bahamian Ambassador Sidney Collie, Spanish Social Secretary Diane Flamini, and the social secretaries and cultural attachés from dozens of other countries.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- Mike Gehrke is joining GPS Impact as CIO and senior adviser, heading a new Impact Labs division. He most recently was a VP at Benenson Strategy Group.

TRANSITION -- Joel Elliott is now lead Democratic lobbyist at Salesforce. He previously was longtime COS to former Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.).

2020 MOVES -- Londyn Marshall will be chief of staff to the national investment chair for Pete Buttigieg’s campaign. She was previously the PAC manager at PPAF.

-- Andrew Taverrite will be New Hampshire comms director for Elizabeth Warren’s campaign. He most recently has been press secretary at Planned Parenthood.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Sarah Venuto, Democratic staff director on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, and Nelson Perez, VP for U.S. government relations at National Grid, on Wednesday welcomed Nico Venuto Perez, who joins big sister Nora. Pic … Another pic

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Austin Laufersweiler, comms director for Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.), is 28. A trend that he thinks doesn’t get enough attention: “I want to see more reporting on the treatment and management of mental health in America. Life-changing breakthroughs are happening in the field of mental health, and it seems that the more we learn, the more important it is to pair mental and physical health maintenance. I’m hopeful that moving the conversation into the mainstream will help to grow mental health care professions and reduce stigma for people who experience mental illness.” Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) is 62 … Lawrence Wright, New Yorker staff writer, is 72 (hat tip: David Andelman) ... Stephen Cox, deputy associate attorney general, is 42 ... FHA/HUD’s Brian Montgomery … Laura Nasim ... Fox News’ Rich Edson … Hearst Television’s Eric Meyrowitz ... Kristin Carvell Hardwick of GE ... Gigi Sohn ... former Treasury Secretary John Snow is 8-0 … PSI’s Kate Roberts ... Benton Ives is 43 ... Corporate Accountability’s Gigi Kellett ... RNC’s Nick Ballas … Peter Mihalick is 37 … Emily Gershon ... Sarah Bittleman ... Camille Gallo ... Caitlin Huey-Burns of CBS … Hayley Brower of Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.)’s office (h/t dad Greg) … David Eiselsberg … NRCC art director Mary Corley … Matthew Rosenberg, NYT national security correspondent and CNN national security analyst …

… Patrick Ruffini, partner and co-founder of Echelon Insights, is 41 … former Rep. Nancy Boyda (D-Kan.) is 64 … former Rep. Dan Boren (D-Okla.) is 46 … former Del. Ron De Lugo (D-U.S. Virgin Islands) is 89 … Jeff Ballou … Geneva Kropper, director of digital media at Rational 360 (h/t Lisa Zhang) … Seng Peng … Kevin Walling is 34 ... Scott Light … MPAA’s Arlen Valdivia … Daniele Baierlein … Michelle White, COS for Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak ... Dave Mills ... Paul Cheshire ... Vonda Marrow ... Michael Manganiello ... Gil Durán, California opinion editor at The Sacramento Bee/McClatchy … Brynn Barnett ... Sim Khan ... Dan Burrows ... Jennifer Streaks ... Sean Butler is 54 ... Bryce Dustman ... Melissa Leebaert ... Vicki Seyfert-Margolis ... Brendan O’Sullivan

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