Anthony Brindisi is on the verge of clinching a victory in the 22nd Congressional District election after winning the absentee ballot count Friday in two more counties, distancing himself from Rep. Claudia Tenney.

Tenney's chance of a post-election night rally all but disappeared as Brindisi expanded his lead to 3,178 votes on the strength of absentee ballot victories in Broome and Herkimer counties.

Tenney, R-New Hartford, won the absentee count in Oswego County on Friday, but the 125-vote margin (484-359) was not enough to make a significant dent in Brindisi's lead.

With five of the eight counties in the district now finished counting absentee and affidavit ballots, Brindisi seems assured of a victory.

Tenney, R-New Hartford, would need to capture about 78 percent of the uncounted ballots in Oneida, Chenango and Tioga counties to win the election, a vast departure from the Election Day vote in those counties.

"Her path to victory is virtually closed at this point," said Luke Perry, director of the Utica College Center of Public Affairs and Election Research. "It's not going to happen, barring some finding of a tabulation error at the 11th hour."

Nate Silver, editor of the website FiveThirtyEight.com, tweeted Friday, "It's pretty clear that it's over for Tenney."

Tenney did not concede and her campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

Brindisi, a Utica Democrat and member of the state Assembly, declared victory on election night before the race tightened and his lead narrowed to less than 1 percentage point. He led Tenney by 1,293 votes.

On Friday afternoon, Brindisi's campaign declared victory again.

"Throughout the vote counting process we've only expanded our lead," said Ellen Foster, Brindisi's campaign manager. "It's clear that Anthony Brindisi has won a decisive victory."

Brindisi has captured about 60 percent of the combined absentee and affidavit votes, including in two counties that Tenney won easily on Election Day -- Madison and Herkimer counties.

22nd Congressional District absentee ballots

Notes: Totals may not add up because some absentee or affidavit ballots were disqualified or challenged. Totals include affidavit ballots in Cortland, Chenango, Oswego, Herkimer and Broome counties.

County Mailed Returned Brindisi Tenney Oswego 874 745 359 484 Madison 2,228 1,910 1063 739 Oneida 5,324 4,182 0 0 Cortland 1,214 1,090 612 405 Broome 5,093 4,609 2959 1640 Herkimer 1,256 1,238 659 579 Tioga 256 203 0 0 Chenango 1,384 1,153 0 0 Total 17,629 15,130 5652 3847

There have been few places for Tenney to find hope. In tallies of each of the four counties with the most absentee ballots counted so far, Brindisi expanded his lead. Only the county with the smallest total, Oswego, helped Tenney.

Oneida County, with 4,182 returned absentee ballots, will ultimately decide the winner in the race. Brindisi carried the county on Election Day by almost 2 percentage points. It's the home county for both Brindisi and Tenney.

Oneida County elections officials say they expect their hand count of ballots to continue into next week.

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