The mind often wanders during the armpit of the offseason. And, if you’re like Travis and myself, whose baseball team’s irrelevancy will only be overshadowed by the heat during the dog days of summer, your mind REALLY starts to wander. About the Miami Dolphins, naturally.

While it’d be nice to have dreams of Brian Flores hoisting a Lombardi Trophy, that’s not where mind has gone. At least not yet, as I do really like Brian Flores and the staff he’s assembled. There are big concerns, of course: Is Steve Ross really going to see this rebuild through, or will the Dolphins be big spenders this offseason? Is our franchise quarterback on the roster now? What is really in a hot dog? Valid questions, yes, but mine are more precisely focused on the defensive side of the football.

I have specific concerns at each level of the defense and examining those is how I chose to cope with my football withdraw. Let’s look at each of them.

1) How many of Miami’s incumbent Defensive Linemen will take to the style of play in the Brian Flores defense?

Let’s start by acknowledging that the real strength of this defense is that it is amorphic. There are no defined personnel grouping or schematic packages that have to be played on a weekly basis. If you remember my deep dive piece, we detailed that in 2018 the Patriots most frequently used 4-2-5, 3-3-5, and 3-2-6 packages. None of those are the antiquated 4-3 or 3-4 packages, which the Patriots used a grand total of 97 and 13 snaps respectively.

Because of this change, Miami’s defensive linemen will be asked to play in multiple ways, not just attacking vertically up the field as Miami did in the Wide-9 under Vance Joseph and Matt Burke the past three seasons. Miami’s defensive linemen will, at times, have to play down (horizontally) the line of scrimmage. At times they’ll have to attack a gap vertically*. At times they’ll have to read-and-react. At times, a DE or NT may have to two-gap (not the whole line, just one or two players at a time, given the formation and play design).

*Quick aside. I feel like this is worth mentioning at this point. Samuel Gold (@SamuelRGold) did a FANTASTIC breakdown of the Patriots defense against the Rams in the Super Bowl. And yes, the Patriots did task their D-linemen with attacking vertically up the field. Pay attention to what they did, and how they did it, and who they used as an edge defender that wasn’t named Hightower or Van Noy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLmyRYJHt4o&t=135s

I think by now 99% of Dolfans have seen just about every highlight clip of Christian Wilkins at Clemson, and we know he can likely do most what I listed above. Really, two-gapping is the one thing I’d question, but I don’t think he’s who they’d have in mind to ask to do that anyway. Personally, I think that role likely ends up belonging to Joey Mbu. I’m more concerned with Davon Godchaux, Vincent Taylor and Akeem Spence.

If you follow Travis on Twitter and/or read his piece about Vincent Taylor from earlier this week, there’s a great example of what it means to play horizontally down the line in one of his tweets:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1145796652545916928

In the clip Taylor is able to make the play on the screen despite lining up from the backside, playing 3-technique. This is a prime example of being able to play horizontally down the line.

I highlight this because of the contrast in styles from the Wide-9. Miami’s D-linemen will be asked to do this a lot more in this Patriots-rooted scheme. That’s not to say this is a 2-gap scheme, it isn’t, but there will be times that the 1-technique or nose tackle (shade/zero-technique) is asked to 2-gap. There will also be times when a 2-gap responsibility falls to one of the two linebackers likely to be on the field. More on that later.

In this clip below, from Pro Football Focus (@PFF), you’ll see one example of another concern. Davon Godchaux likely figures to be the guy tasked with replicating what Malcom Brown did for the Patriots as their primary 1-technique DT. In this clip, Godchaux slants at the snap into Detroit’s LG Frank Ragnow, a player that both Travis and I liked a lot and gets taken for a ride.

https://media.profootballfocus.com/2019/07/RagnowCropped.gif

Also, note on this play that Jerome Baker is the SAM backer on the offense’s left side. He wins with is first step off the snap, but is easily stymied by TE Luke Willson, a foreboding sign of a concern we may be faced with this year.

As I mentioned before, there are going to be a lot of personnel packages and formations used in this defense, so it will be up to Patrick Graham and Marion Hobby to figure out which roles each player is suited for, and how they’re best used. At this point in time, if I were to create analogous roles, my guess would be:

Malcom Brown ==> Davon Godchaux

Lawrence Guy ==> Christian Wilkins

Adam Butler ==> Vincent Taylor, Akeem Spence

Danny Shelton ==> TBD out of a group of Joey Mbu, Jamiyus Pittman and Cory Thomas

Miami doesn’t have as much size and power as the Patriots across the board. The challenge for the players and coaches, once roles are determined, is how do they use a bit more athleticism and quickness to make up for a lack in power up front?

2) Can the Dolphins aggregately create analogs for Dont’a Hightower and Kyle Van Noy, or are we shopping aggressively in 2020?

If you’ve been paying attention this offseason, you’d know that John Congemi reported on “The Audible” that Raekwon McMillan told him that he met with Coach Flores and was instructed to watch film of Dont’a Hightower. You’d also know from a small cadre of sources that Jerome Baker has reportedly been told to watch tape of Kyle Van Noy.

On the surface most Dolfans appear to like and agree with this line of thinking permeating out of Davie. It makes sense, logically. Miami’s two up-and-coming young linebackers ready to be the key cogs on the second level of the defense. But, let’s examine those roles a bit closer. One adage that a lot of Dolfans have gotten used to over the past three seasons is that 3-down linebackers are guys who can stop the run and can cover. That’s not the case with this new defense. New England, at least in recent vintages, have used guys who can stop the run and can rush the passer. That’s not really Baker or McMillan.

Let’s start with the Dont’a Hightower ==> Raekwon McMillan comparison. Hightower is a big, physical, versatile player for the Patriots who is capable of playing off the ball as a MLB, on the edge as a SAM LB, and even playing as a stand-up or traditional DE with his hand in the dirt. I think that Raekwon McMillan is capable of fulfilling about 2/3 of this role.

We know he’s a pretty capable run-stopper as an off-ball MLB. Take your pick from this video from Young Mayo on YouTube. We know he can do that; he was one of the better run-stopping LBs in the league last year. He can also play inserted in gap, as you’ll see on this play against the Jets last year where he nets a TFL:

https://youtu.be/b-nrMx1YLiw?t=167

But we’ve seen the Patriots use Dont’a Hightower in a number of ways that we didn’t see McMillan in during the 2018 season. Here’s an example of Hightower pass-rushing when he’s lined up inserted in the B gap as essentially a 3-techinque against the Rams in the Super Bowl. This GIF is courtesy of SB Nation.

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/13739637/2_56_3rd_Q.gif

This is something that I think McMillan can learn/be taught to do. Same with this where we see Hightower closer to the line of scrimmage playing the run.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/rw/Boston/2011-2020/WebGraphics/Sports/BostonGlobe.com/2018/gifs/patriots/lbs/NED4.gif

Where I think Miami will have to adjust is finding someone who can do the things Hightower can do as an edge player. In this GIF, again courtesy of SB Nation, Hightower is essentially a DE player. He uses a long-arm move to basically walk Rams RT Rob Havenstein back into Jared Goff’s lap and forcing Goff to hurry his throw into a bad incompletion. I DON’T think this is something Miami will do with McMillan.

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/13739613/8_55_3rd_Q.gif

So, what’s the solution? Well, this is where I think guys like Andrew Van Ginkel, Charles Harris, Jayrone Elliott and perhaps Nate Orchard could come into play. I think Miami can use Raekwon McMillan in some of the same coverage responsibilities. But I think Miami’s going to have to figure out an alternative to using McMillan as a 3rd down pass-rusher.

We’ve seen some things from Jayrone Elliott as an edge defender back when he was with the Green Bay Packers in 2014-16. He also led the defunct AAF in sacks earlier this year with 7.5 in 8 games. If Charles Harris is ever going to prove his worth, he’ll likely have opportunities as a stand-up pass-rusher in this defense. He said so himself on “The Audible” last week. More on Van Ginkel in a minute.

To sum up McMillan, I think he’s got a chance to emerge as the leader of this defense and prove to be a key cog in the front seven. Things may not look pretty at the beginning – which will likely be the case with the whole defense (see Detroit’s defensive improvement over the course of 2018 under Matt Patricia for reference) – but I think Raekwon will ultimately become the player I think he can be. The caveat here will be that Miami’s staff will have to be okay with using multiple players to piece together that Dont’a Hightower role, which is something that wasn’t always in line with the corporate way of thinking in Foxboro. But I’m confident in McMillan’s abilities and that he’ll take a shine to this new defense.

As for Jerome Baker, he had an impressive rookie season last year. But this new role will likely prove to have some foreign aspects to it for him. Let’s get one thing out of the way quickly. If he’s being asked to replicate the things Kyle Van Noy does, he’s at a size disadvantage.

Van Noy goes 6’3” 250lbs and has 31 5/8” arms, whereas Baker is 6’1” 225lbs and has a similar arm length at 31 ½” arms.

There are formations, like the 3-3-5 with a Bear front, where the Patriots put Kyle Van Noy as an off-ball MLB (Hightower and John Simon are usually outside in this look). That role isn’t too dissimilar to how Miami used Jerome Baker last year, so there’s fit there. Same with a traditional 4-3 look, which the Patriots used a total of 97 times last year, so there’s some snaps for Baker. But Kyle Van Noy is often lined up on the edge, like a 3-4 OLB’s alignment. Can Jerome Baker do those things?

As we saw in the Davon Godchaux GIF earlier, Baker’s going to have to bring more to the party if he’s to set the edge when lined up on the LOS, as Van Noy does in these two examples. The first is from @PFF.

https://media.profootballfocus.com/2019/01/VAN-NOY-2.gif

You can see Van Noy get a bit overwhelmed at the snap here, but he’s able to recover and make the tackle. Ask yourself. Can Jerome Baker do this?

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/DefinitiveTenseEarwig-size_restricted.gif

Can Jerome Baker actually rush the pass from an inserted position or on the edge, or is he just an effective blitzer? That’s another question I wonder about with Baker as we’ve never seen him try and swipe hands, dip and rip, use a long arm or an arm-over, etc. You can see Kyle Van Noy get home for a sack in the AFC Championship Game here, courtesy of @PFF

https://media.profootballfocus.com/2019/01/VAN-NOY-1.gif

Without diving in too deep, what I’m getting at is can we really rely on Jerome Baker to play a lot of snaps on the edge, as Van Noy did? I’m not so sure. But, there are workarounds for this. One of them is highlight in Evan Lazar’s brilliant piece about the Patriots use of simulated pressures.

You can read that piece here: https://www.clnsmedia.com/patriots-defense-simulated-pressure-renaissance/ and there are video clips within illustrate how Miami could get more of Baker in pass-rush situations when not inserted in a gap or lined up on the edge of the defense.

My concern here could be assuaged if Miami is able to find a palatable way to use Andrew Van Ginkel in a lot of the Van Noy 3rd down pass-rush roles. Andrew Van Ginkel played for Jim Leonhard at Wisconsin. Leonhard was a Jet under Rex Ryan, whose defense uses a lot of 3-man D-line pressures. Don’t ask how I got down this wormhole, but you can see a copy of the Jets playbook on Nick Saban’s desk in this video: https://youtu.be/Ne_Y_vXk6js?t=26 at the :26 mark. Kudos to Rob Ezell on his Saban impression.

What I’m getting at here is that Saban and Belichick are pals. I wonder if a lot of the pass-rush games we saw out of the Patriots late last year don’t have at least some roots in some of Rex Ryan’s pressure packages. I’ve seen a PDF of Rex Ryan’s 2011 Jets Defensive Playbook. A lot of their pressure packages are rooted in the 3-2-6 formation, something that New England commonly used last year under Brian Flores. Could Miami’s relationships to Belichick (Flores) and Rex Ryan (Patrick Graham who worked under Mike Pettine) and their scouting of Wisconsin products (Deiter, Van Ginkel) have helped them to unearth something here?

Back to Van Ginkel, perhaps he can tag-team with Jerome Baker to complete the Kyle Van Noy role. We’ve seen Kyle Van Noy cover the flats in similar fashion to this play.

https://youtu.be/J7FT-EPIRYQ?t=18

And this play here looks an awful lot like a lot of the pass-rush games we saw the Patriots use with Hightower and Van Noy during their playoff run. Also, it’s worth noting that Miami’s new D-line Coach Marion Hobby, who was in Jacksonville prior to heading south, coached a lot of E-T and T-E pass-rush games in Jacksonville. He also helped recruit Christian Wilkins to Clemson . But here are two examples of Van Ginkel pass-rushing that looks eerily similar to some things we saw the Patriots do with Kyle Van Noy this postseason.

https://youtu.be/J7FT-EPIRYQ?t=72

https://youtu.be/J7FT-EPIRYQ?t=91

So, you can sort of see some things piling up here in terms of how Andrew Van Ginkel could be used. And, honestly, I think a solution might end up being that Jerome Baker ends up playing 600-700 snaps and Van Ginkel ends up playing 200-300 snaps (assuming an average of 1,000 plays) throughout the year. While fans of “Bake” may not like to hear it, I think if the staff is willing to piece-meal together the Kyle Van Noy role as well, then this would be a viable solution in my opinion.

I think the ultimate question as it relates to both of the primary LB roles becomes, is this coaching able and willing to adjust and use multiple players, perhaps up to 4 different key players, to put these two roles together? If not, then Miami will have to overhaul the LB unit not too far down the road.

3) Who is Miami’s Patrick Chung?

“Patrick has always been really good — smart, works hard, does whatever you ask him to do, understands the team concept and is a versatile player, so he can do a lot of different things,” Belichick said.

“Whatever you ask him to do he embraces it and works at it and does the best he can. Obviously as we all gain experience it helps us going forward when we can build off those, and I think like any player that’s played a number of years like he has, you learn a little bit every year.

“I’m sure he has done that the last couple of years, but that was never an issue for him like having trouble learning or assignments or things like that. That’s never been an issue with him.” – This was Bill Belichick on Patrick Chung. Belichick also called him one of the best players in the NFL.

Chung is certainly a critical cog in the Patriots defense. He starts at strong safety, but also plays a lot as their third LB, plays in the slot, and has also at times been used as a free safety.

Courtesy of Anchor Sports Network, this GIF shows Chung lined up as the edge defender on the LOS against the Rams in the Super Bowl. Essentially he’s almost playing like a 3-4 OLB would, as he takes on the blocker and makes the stop on C.J. Anderson.

https://media.giphy.com/media/2uIf3dleVOOhHjZBKY/giphy.gif

I wanted to show this first. I think Travis and I are in agreement that Minkah Fitzpatrick is probably slated to be more Devin McCourty than he is Patrick Chung, though there may be a few circumstances where it’s appropriate. In totality I feel like using Minkah in the way Chung was used in the GIF above, I don’t think you could say that you’re maximizing his skillset. Perhaps I’ll do a Devin McCourty è Minkah Fitzpatrick comparison before we get into the bulk of training camp and the preseason. We also have been learning that Bobby McCain is, for the moment, being tried in the Duron Harmon third safety role. This role is being a middle-of-the field 3rd down safety with occasional split-safety duties.

So, with that in mind, who is Miami’s Patrick Chung for 2019? Quite frankly, I’m not sure. Gun to my head I’d start with Reshad Jones. Contract and potentially being traded aside, I think Jones’s prior experience is something Miami might be able to lean on, having played in the box quite a bit under Matt Burke in 2018. My question with Jones would be is he assignment-sound enough?

For example, would Reshad Jones play the gap here and throw himself into an oncoming FB? After another shoulder surgery? GIF courtesy of Deadspin.

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s–NH_pvRlj–/c_fit,fl_progressive,q_80,w_636/xss2izyvcvqv5bafuggd.gif

As much as I love Reshad Jones, I’m honestly not sure if you can rely on him to do those things. Jones can still certainly make plays and is nowhere near as bad as a lot of Dolfans make him out to be despite being on the “Back 9” of his career. If Reshad Jones isn’t in line to try and take on the Patrick Chung role, then perhaps he’s going to be more of a traditional split safety.

Is it T.J. McDonald? Barry Jackson reported back this spring that Miami had T.J. McDonald drop 15lbs to get down to 215lbs, which coincidentally is the same weight as Patrick Chung, and Reshad Jones for that matter.

McDonald, who played a lot more SS last year for Miami than Jones did, also has experience playing in the box as a LB for the Rams during the Jeff Fisher era, prior to joining the Dolphins.

In this GIF, courtesy of Steelers Depot, you can see McDonald (#25) lined up on the edge, taking on the block and making the tackle against Washington.

https://i.imgur.com/pZLSMon.gif

Of course, we’ve also seen T.J. McDonald take a lot of poor angles, especially in run defense. He’s also not as athletic as Reshad Jones is, even when playing in the box, Jones is noticeably faster. So, there’s a give and take with each one. Jones is more dynamic, but less assignment-sound in my opinion, where McDonald will do what he’s asked, but the athleticism isn’t always there.

Long-term, I think this is a position Miami will have to address via free agency or the Draft. For this season, we may very well see all three safeties – Fitzpatrick, Jones and McDonald – get reps doing things that Patrick Chung did for the Patriots.

Overall, these three concerns stick out the most to me in terms of what Miami’s defense could have to deal with this season. The whole team is in a transition year in Brian Flores’ debut season. With that in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised if Miami’s defense gave themselves a “transition” season. It’s imperative that Miami sift through the defensive players on the roster and determine which ones are going to be parts of the future and which ones aren’t. There’s also a possibility we see a transition with the scheme itself.

Miami’s got some personnel deficiencies. We don’t know if Raekwon McMillan and Jerome Baker will be our version of Dont’a Hightower and Kyle Van Noy respectively. Nor do we know who will be our Patrick Chung. And we clearly don’t have a Trey Flowers. With those things factored, perhaps we’ll see Miami play more Diamond/Ruby looks (image courtesy of @JamesALight)

These fronts are pretty similar to what Miami’s Defensive Coordinator Patrick Graham was versed in last year with the Packers. But, I think more use of the 3-3-5, 3-2-6, and 2-4-5 formations – all which can be executed out of different personnel groupings, as the Patriots frequently displayed last year – may provide a good springboard in a transition year until Miami can further beef up it’s defensive line, defensive ends in particular.

In the end, these are my personal points that could become concerns during the season. Time will tell if these are real, or if I’ve spent too much time in the sun during the dog days of summer.