As the calendar approaches March, many dynasty leagues are preparing for first year player drafts. While the recently released 2019 Top 500 Fantasy Prospects includes the vast majority of first year player draft prospects, it may be difficult to separate such players from the pack. As such, these rankings specifically focus on this subset of prospects, diving even deeper than the Top 500! Further, two additional top 25 rankings based upon upside-only and on-base percentage follow the main rankings.

To see where the prospects below now fall in the overall rankings, you can obtain access to the updated (January) Top 600 Dynasty League Players with a small donation. Note, however, some prospect rankings have changed since I updated the Top 600.

2019 Top 125 First Year Player Draft Prospects

Rank Player POS. SEC. POS. Age 2018 Level ETA 1 Casey Mize DET RHP - 21.91 GCL, A+ 2020 2 Nolan Gorman STL 3B - 18.88 APP, A 2021 3 Nick Madrigal CHW 2B - 22.04 AZL, A, A+ 2020 4 Jarred Kelenic SEA OF - 19.70 GCL, APP 2021 5 Yusei Kikuchi SEA LHP - 27.78 NPB 2019 6 Jonathan India CIN 3B SS 22.29 APP, PIO, A 2020 7 Joey Bart SF C - 22.29 AZL, NWL 2020 8 Alec Bohm PHI 3B - 22.65 GCL, NYP 2020 9 Victor Victor Mesa MIA OF - 22.69 N/A 2020 10 Xavier Edwards SD SS 2B 19.64 AZL, NWL 2022 11 Trevor Larnach MIN OF - 22.09 APP, A 2020 12 Travis Swaggerty PIT OF - 21.61 NYP, A 2020 13 Julio Pablo Martinez TEX OF - 23.02 DSL, NWL 2020 14 Jordyn Adams LAA OF - 19.44 AZL, PIO 2022 15 Nico Hoerner CHC SS - 21.88 AZL, NWL, A 2020 16 Matthew Liberatore TB LHP - 19.39 GCL, APP 2022 17 Grant Lavigne COL 1B - 19.59 PIO 2022 18 Cole Winn TEX RHP - 19.34 AZL 2022 19 Brady Singer KC RHP - 22.65 N/A 2020 20 Seth Beer HOU OF 1B 22.53 NYP, A, A+ 2020 21 Jordan Groshans TOR SS 3B 19.38 GCL, APP 2022 22 Marco Luciano SF SS - 17.55 N/A 2023 23 Triston Casas BOS 3B 1B 19.20 GCL 2022 24 Malcom Nunez STL 3B 1B 18.05 DSL 2023 25 Alek Thomas ARI OF - 18.92 AZL, PIO 2022 26 Connor Scott MIA OF - 19.47 GCL, A 2022 27 Shane McClanahan TB LHP - 21.92 GCL, APP 2020 28 Logan Gilbert SEA RHP - 21.90 NWL 2020 29 Jackson Kowar KC RHP - 22.48 A 2020 30 Ethan Hankins CLE RHP - 18.85 AZL 2022 31 Grayson Rodriguez BAL RHP - 19.37 GCL 2022 32 Ryan Weathers SD LHP - 19.39 AZL, A 2022 33 Daniel Lynch KC LHP - 22.36 APP, A 2020 34 Orelvis Martinez TOR SS - 17.36 N/A 2023 35 Parker Meadows DET OF - 19.41 GCL, NYP 2022 36 Brice Turang MIL SS 2B 19.35 AZL, PIO 2022 37 Jeremiah Jackson LAA SS - 19.01 AZL, PIO 2022 38 Mason Denaburg WAS RHP - 19.64 GCL 2022 39 Bo Naylor CLE C 3B 19.10 AZL 2022 40 Noelvi Marte SEA SS - 17.45 N/A 2024 41 Kyle Isbel KC OF - 22.07 PIO, A 2021 42 Nick Schnell TB OF - 19.00 GCL 2022 43 Greyson Jenista ATL OF - 22.31 APP, A, A+ 2021 44 Richard Palacios CLE 2B - 21.87 AZL, NYP, A 2021 45 Cole Roederer CHC OF - 19.51 AZL 2022 46 Josh Stowers NYY OF - 22.09 NWL 2021 47 Jake McCarthy ARI OF - 21.66 AZL, NWL 2021 48 Lenny Torres CLE RHP - 18.45 AZL 2022 49 Mike Siani CIN OF - 19.70 APP 2022 50 Simeon Woods-Richardson NYM RHP - 18.50 GCL, APP 2022 51 Kevin Alcantara NYY OF - 16.71 N/A 2024 52 Jeremy Eierman OAK SS - 22.55 NYP 2021 53 Misael Urbina MIN OF - 16.92 N/A 2024 54 Steele Walker CHW OF - 22.66 AZL, PIO, A 2021 55 Luken Baker STL 1B - 22.05 GCL, A 2021 56 Anthony Seigler NYY C - 19.77 GCL, APP 2022 57 Ryan Rolison COL LHP - 21.71 PIO 2021 58 Adam Kloffenstein TOR RHP - 18.59 GCL 2022 59 Jonathan Ornelas TEX 3B SS 18.84 AZL 2022 60 Alvin Guzman ARI OF - 17.44 N/A 2024 61 Jameson Hannah OAK OF - 21.63 NYP 2021 62 Gabriel Rodriguez CLE SS - 17.10 N/A 2024 63 Blaze Alexander ARI SS 2B/3B 19.80 AZL, PIO 2022 64 Alexander Vargas NYY SS - 17.41 N/A 2023 65 Joe Gray MIL OF - 19.04 AZL 2022 66 Josiah Gray LAD RHP - 21.27 APP 2022 67 Brennen Davis CHC OF - 19.41 AZL 2022 68 Diego Cartaya LAD C - 17.56 N/A 2024 69 Nick Decker BOS OF - 19.49 GCL 2022 70 Kody Clemens DET 2B - 22.87 A, A+ 2021 71 Osiris Johnson MIA SS - 18.44 GCL, A 2022 72 Richard Gallardo CHC RHP - 17.56 N/A 2024 73 Osiel Rodriguez NYY RHP - 17.35 N/A 2024 74 Terrin Vavra COL SS 2B 21.88 NWL 2021 75 Tristan Pompey MIA OF - 22.01 GCL, A, A+ 2021 76 Tristan Beck ATL RHP - 22.76 GCL 2021 77 Griffin Conine TOR OF - 21.71 GCL, NWL 2021 78 Owen White TEX RHP - 19.64 AZL 2022 79 Jarren Duran BOS OF 2B 22.56 NYP, A 2021 80 Kris Bubic KC LHP - 21.61 PIO 2021 81 Brandon Howlett BOS 3B - 19.54 GCL, NYP 2021 82 Nick Dunn STL 2B - 22.16 NYP, A 2021 83 Tyler Frank TB 2B SS/3B 22.20 NYP 2021 84 Nick Sandlin CLE RHP - 22.22 AZL, A, A+, AA 2019 85 Jayson Schroeder HOU RHP - 19.37 GCL 2022 86 Lyon Richardson CIN RHP - 19.19 APP 2022 87 Juan Guerrero COL SS - 17.55 N/A 2024 88 Aaron Ashby MIL LHP - 20.84 PIO, A 2022 89 Tanner Dodson TB RHP OF 21.89 NYP 2021 90 Brock Deatherage DET OF - 23.54 GCL, A, A+ 2020 91 Blaine Knight BAL RHP - 22.75 NYP 2021 92 Cal Raleigh SEA C - 22.34 NWL 2021 93 Durbin Feltman BOS RHP - 21.94 NYP, A, A+ 2020 94 CJ Alexander ATL 3B - 22.70 GCL, APP, A+ 2021 95 Raynel Delgado CLE SS 2B/3B 18.98 AZL 2022 96 Ryan Jeffers MIN C - 21.82 APP, A 2021 97 Starlyn Castillo PHI RHP - 17.09 N/A 2024 98 Jayce Easley TEX 2B SS 19.66 AZL 2022 99 Ryder Green NYY OF - 18.90 GCL 2022 100 Nicholas Northcut BOS 3B - 19.79 N/A 2022 101 Micah Bello MIL OF - 18.69 AZL 2022 102 Griffin Roberts STL RHP - 22.79 GCL, A+ 2021 103 Alejandro Pie TB SS - 17.16 N/A 2023 104 Sandy Gaston TB RHP - 17.28 N/A 2024 105 Francisco Alvarez NYM C - 17.36 N/A 2024 106 Niko Decolati COL OF - 21.63 PIO 2021 107 Carlos Cortes NYM 2B - 21.74 NYP 2021 108 Michael Grove LAD RHP - 22.28 N/A 2022 109 Freddy Valdez NYM OF - 17.31 N/A 2024 110 Josh Breaux NYY C - 21.48 GCL, NYP 2021 111 Eduardo Garcia MIL SS - 16.72 N/A 2024 112 Cadyn Grenier BAL SS - 22.41 A 2021 113 Grant Little SD OF - 21.72 NWL 2021 114 Gage Canning WAS OF - 21.93 NYP, A 2021 115 Owen Miller SD SS 3B 22.37 NWL, A 2021 116 Aaron Hernandez LAA RHP - 22.32 N/A 2021 117 Will Banfield MIA C - 19.36 GCL, A 2022 118 DaShawn Keirsey MIN OF - 21.88 APP 2021 119 Junior Sanquintin CLE SS - 17.22 N/A 2024 120 Alexander Ramirez LAA OF - 16.58 N/A 2024 121 Lawrence Butler OAK OF - 18.72 AZL 2022 122 Sean Hjelle SF RHP - 21.89 NWL 2021 123 Jose Rodriguez TEX C - 17.48 N/A 2023 124 Alex McKenna HOU OF - 21.56 NYP, A 2021 125 Antonio Gomez NYY C - 17.38 N/A 2024

Observations

Recommendation: Trade Down

This draft class does not possess a consensus top prospect. Further, fantasy minds across the industry differ as to the order of the top of the class. Naturally, and understandably, the value difference among the top five is nominal, and the next nine are also quite close. Arguably, the order of the top 15 prospects is a matter of personal preference. As such, I highly recommend owners with early picks to trade down.

Merrill Kelly

Merrill Kelly is a 30-year-old prospect, and a former member of the Tampa Bay Rays organization. The Diamondbacks recently signed him as an international free agent acquisition after he spent several years in the Korean Baseball Organization. Technically, Kelly is not a “first year” player. However, he is almost certainly available in most, if not all, leagues. On these rankings, he would slot at 92, after Blaine Knight.

Notable Unranked Loud Debuts

Cal Stevenson, OF, Toronto Blue Jays (.369/.511/.523 with 21 stolen bases and a 24-to-64 strikeout-to-walk ratio)

Zack Shannon, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks (.354/.439/.677 with 14 home runs in Pioneer League)

Nathan Eaton, OF/2B/3B, Kansas City Royals (.354/.427/.581 with 5 home runs and 19 stolen bases in Pioneer League)

Keegan McGovern, OF, Seattle Mariners (.268/.351/.523 with 15 home runs in Low-A Midwest League)

David Fry, C/1B/3B, Milwaukee Brewers (.315/.406/.563 with 12 home runs in Pioneer League)

Gus Varland, RHP, Oakland Athletics (0.95/0.82 ERA/WHIP, 38 IP, 50/8 K/BB)

Adam Wolf, LHP, Detroit Tigers (2.19/1.14 ERA/WHIP, 37 IP, 32/12 K/BB)

Rodney Hutchison, RHP, New York Yankees (1.97/1.00 ERA/WHIP, 32 IP, 31/6 K/BB)

Ryan Feltner, RHP, Colorado Rockies (0.88/0.65 ERA/WHIP, 30 2/3 IP, 39/4 K/BB)

James McArthur, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies (0.54/0.81 ERA/WHIP, 33 1/3 IP, 35/11 K/BB)

Upside-Only Top 25

The first year player draft rankings consider three, separate fantasy tools for both hitters and pitchers. Importantly, a fourth “tool” analyzed is risk, which considers a multitude of factors, including, but not limited to, fielding, level, opportunity, industry reputation, age, and injury history. What would the rankings look like focused solely on upside?

Top 25 Upside-Only FYPD Prospects

Rank Player POS. SEC. POS. Age 2018 Level ETA 1 Casey Mize DET RHP - 21.91 GCL, A+ 2020 2 Nolan Gorman STL 3B - 18.88 APP, A 2021 3 Jordyn Adams LAA OF - 19.44 AZL, PIO 2022 4 Jarred Kelenic SEA OF - 19.70 GCL, APP 2021 5 Xavier Edwards SD SS 2B 19.64 AZL, NWL 2022 6 Matthew Liberatore TB LHP - 19.39 GCL, APP 2022 7 Cole Winn TEX RHP - 19.34 AZL 2022 8 Marco Luciano SF SS - 17.55 N/A 2023 9 Malcom Nunez STL 3B 1B 18.05 DSL 2023 10 Nick Madrigal CHW 2B - 22.04 AZL, A, A+ 2020 11 Trevor Larnach MIN OF - 22.09 APP, A 2020 12 Travis Swaggerty PIT OF - 21.61 NYP, A 2020 13 Julio Pablo Martinez TEX OF - 23.02 DSL, NWL 2020 14 Jonathan India CIN 3B SS 22.29 APP, PIO, A 2020 15 Joey Bart SF C - 22.29 AZL, NWL 2020 16 Victor Victor Mesa MIA OF - 22.69 N/A 2020 17 Alec Bohm PHI 3B - 22.65 GCL, NYP 2020 18 Triston Casas BOS 3B 1B 19.20 GCL 2022 19 Connor Scott MIA OF - 19.47 GCL, A 2022 20 Ethan Hankins CLE RHP - 18.85 AZL 2022 21 Orelvis Martinez TOR SS - 17.36 N/A 2023 22 Grayson Rodriguez BAL RHP - 19.37 GCL 2022 23 Grant Lavigne COL 1B - 19.59 PIO 2022 24 Noelvi Marte SEA SS - 17.45 N/A 2024 25 Kevin Alcantara NYY OF - 16.71 N/A 2024

On-Base Percentage Top 25

In addition, many dynasty leagues do not employ standard 5-by-5 scoring. Rather, many leagues substitute batting average with on-base percentage. The old adage, patience is a virtue, carries new weight in such leagues. Understandably, this shift in scoring has a dramatic impact on dynasty rankings; most notably, among hitters. For first year player draft prospects, it is often unclear how hitting approaches will develop over time. Further, statistical evidence gleaned from college, summer league, or high school performance can be wildly misleading. Consequently, these abbreviated rankings attempt to highlight perceived changes in value based on hitting approach.

Top 25 OBP FYPD Prospects

Rank Player POS. SEC. POS. Age 2018 Level ETA 1 Nolan Gorman STL 3B - 18.88 APP, A 2021 2 Casey Mize DET RHP - 21.91 GCL, A+ 2020 3 Jonathan India CIN 3B SS 22.29 APP, PIO, A 2020 4 Jarred Kelenic SEA OF - 19.70 GCL, APP 2021 5 Yusei Kikuchi SEA LHP - 27.78 NPB 2019 6 Xavier Edwards SD SS 2B 19.64 AZL, NWL 2022 7 Trevor Larnach MIN OF - 22.09 APP, A 2020 8 Alec Bohm PHI 3B - 22.65 GCL, NYP 2020 9 Nick Madrigal CHW 2B - 22.04 AZL, A, A+ 2020 10 Joey Bart SF C - 22.29 AZL, NWL 2020 11 Victor Victor Mesa MIA OF - 22.69 N/A 2020 12 Travis Swaggerty PIT OF - 21.61 NYP, A 2020 13 Julio Pablo Martinez TEX OF - 23.02 DSL, NWL 2020 14 Jordyn Adams LAA OF - 19.44 AZL, PIO 2022 15 Grant Lavigne COL 1B - 19.59 PIO 2022 16 Matthew Liberatore TB LHP - 19.39 GCL, APP 2022 17 Seth Beer HOU OF 1B 22.53 NYP, A, A+ 2020 18 Nico Hoerner CHC SS - 21.88 AZL, NWL, A 2020 19 Cole Winn TEX RHP - 19.34 AZL 2022 20 Brady Singer KC RHP - 22.65 N/A 2020 21 Triston Casas BOS 3B 1B 19.20 GCL 2022 22 Jordan Groshans TOR SS 3B 19.38 GCL, APP 2022 23 Marco Luciano SF SS - 17.55 N/A 2023 24 Malcom Nunez STL 3B 1B 18.05 DSL 2023 25 Alek Thomas ARI OF - 18.92 AZL, PIO 2022

Additionally, you can find more information about the most of the first year player draft prospects above in the articles below.

Jesse Roche's 2019 Prospect Series

Please feel free to post comments, questions, or your own observations!

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