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Matt Stamey/Associated Press

Just Missed: Kansas Jayhawks (15-3) and Michigan State Spartans (16-2)

Kansas has eight Quadrant 1 wins, which is more than any other team in the country. Several of them are just barely on the right side of the Q1/Q2 border, but they do have neutral-court victories over Tennessee and Michigan State that are going to look great all year long. Not surprisingly, the Jayhawks also have the top-rated strength of schedule.

Had they been able to hang on to win at West Virginia on Saturday, they would have made the leap to the top seed line. However, they fell victim to a "Country Roads" comeback for their third loss of the year. Kansas' next four games are vs. Iowa State, at Kentucky, at Texas and vs. Texas Tech, so there's a great opportunity to climb to a No. 1 seed in the next two weeks.

The Spartans are also oh-so-close to a No. 1 seed following a road win over Nebraska on Thursday. They are now 7-0 in Big Ten play to go along with solid nonconference wins over Texas and Florida.

It was a close call between Michigan and Michigan State, but if the Spartans keep winning, they will absolutely be a No. 1 seed in the next projection. They play three games before our next update, and all three—vs. Maryland, at Iowa, at Purdue—are Quadrant 1 opportunities. They might even enter February as the No. 1 overall seed if they can get to 10-0 in the Big Ten by winning those three games.

4. Michigan Wolverines (17-1)

3. Duke Blue Devils (15-2)

2. Tennessee Volunteers (16-1)

1. Virginia Cavaliers (16-1)

In all my years of doing bracketology, I cannot remember a time when the separation between the No. 1 seeds was this microscopic. These four teams clearly belong on the top tier, but the order is in the eye of the beholder.

Tennessee probably deserves to be No. 1 in the AP poll, but the Volunteers have only played three games against projected tournament teams, beating Gonzaga (sans Killian Tillie) and Louisville and losing to Kansas. Is that really enough for the No. 1 overall seed?

Michigan was our No. 1 overall seed one week ago, but it is 0-1 since then with a loss to a Wisconsin team that had been 1-4 since Christmas. If we're keeping Kansas off the top line for losing at West Virginia, don't we also need to penalize Michigan a bit for its road loss against a struggling opponent? The Wolverines are also the lowest-ranked No. 1 seed on KenPom (No. 6).

Duke has more Quadrant 1 wins (six) than any of the others and has played the most difficult schedule among the quartet, but the Blue Devils have multiple losses, including a home loss to Syracuse that is by far the worst misstep of the bunch. How much should it be "discounted" since Cam Reddish didn't play and Tre Jones got hurt early in the first half, though?

Virginia is still No. 1 on KenPom, but it did just lose to a Duke team playing without its starting point guard. They were neck-and-neck for the entire night, and it was a road game for the Cavaliers, so can we not focus too much on that one result and keep them ahead of Duke? They did annihilate Virginia Tech earlier in the week, after all.

Lots of questions and not many concrete answers, but this is the order we settled on. No reason to sweat it too much with eight weeks remaining until Selection Sunday. These things have a way of working themselves out.