Photo: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

By: Alex Jenkins (@1788sports, @acjenkins17)

This Sunday, October 22nd, Atlanta United (15-9-9) and Toronto FC (20-8-5) square off in their final regular season game in Atlanta, GA at the Mercedes Benz Stadium.

United and Toronto previously played to a 2-2 draw back on April 8th, at BMO Field in Toronto, Ontario. Héctor Villalba gave United the lead in the 15th minute but Toronto FC equalized shortly after with a Sebastian Giovinco goal in the 20th minute. TFC then took the lead in the 44th minute to go into the half with a 2-1 lead. Villalba would notch his second of the game to tie it up in the 47th and the scoring was finished for the day but the excitement per se, was not. Yamil Asad was given a controversial red card in the later stages of the game that made Atlanta finish with 10 men but they still ended up earning a hard fought point. Key point, United were without Josef Martínez due to a groin injury sustained with the Venezuelan national team.

Things to think about:

Player rest or player form more important for Toronto? With the 1 seed already guaranteed, which includes a first round bye, there is reason to believe that TFC would rest a few of its usual starters. Players like Sebastian Giovinco, Jozy Altidore, Victor Vazquez, Justin Morrow, and Michael Bradley could see little to no playing time in the upcoming game. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if Toronto started most of its usual starting 11 in order to keep their team fit and game ready. Their next game won’t be until October 30th/31st and although that doesn’t seem like a long time for players to be off, that much time off can be more damaging than beneficial. Plus, Giovinco is just getting back from an injury and as a key part of Toronto’s attack, I think they will want him in top form going into their first playoff game. Don’t expect Toronto to throw out some hodge podge team and make it easy for Atlanta to get the three points they desperately need.

How will Atlanta United’s defense handle the star-studded Toronto offense? Leandro González-Piréz is suspended due to yellow card accumulation, so I am assuming Jeff Larentowicz will slide into one of the center back positions alongside Michael Parkhurst. Anton Walkes will be at right back and either Chris McCann, who has been training with the first team again, or Mikey Ambrose will be at left back. Greg Garza is still not 100% back from his injury, so don’t expect him to play. Hopefully Garza will be healthy by the playoffs or else that will be a huge blow for United’s back line. I don’t see Atlanta struggling immensely against Toronto defensively, especially because Larentowicz has played CB for us this year already, but it is always difficult losing a key part of the defensive unit. It is even more difficult when you realize that you are facing the highest scoring MLS team. People are always talking about how lethal Atlanta United’s attack is but Toronto has scored 72 goals this season, 4 more than Atlanta. They are just as prolific, if not better than Atlanta, in terms of putting the ball in the back of the net.

Similarly, how will Toronto handle Atlanta United’s offensive unit? In the first matchup, TFC didn’t have to worry about Martínez due to his injury and that coupled with Asad’s red card made it an unusual match for Atlanta. Well, this time around it will be much different. The front three will be Asad, Martínez, Villalba, and I’d imagine Miguel Almirón will be back in the starting 11 at the attacking midfield position. Toronto hasn’t faced a front 4 like this all year. Look to see Josef more involved and effective compared to the last game United played. TFC’s defense has been a little shaky as of late, so hopefully United can take advantage of this and score quick and early.

Atlanta dropped to the 4 seed after the draw against the New York Red Bulls but they still have a shot at getting the 2 seed or even dropping to the 5 seed. This game is very important for Atlanta, as a first round playoff game at home would be preferred over opening the playoffs on the road. I expect Atlanta to come out hot and look to capitalize early. The game has the possibility of being one of the better games of the season and hopefully it lives up to the hype. United’s playoff fate is in the player’s hands, so rise to the occasion, get the job done, and win this game (unlike the USMNT team, too soon?).

Prediction: Atlanta United 2 Toronto FC 1