When Amit Shah launched a scathing attack on the West Bengal govt and Mamata Banerjee, he had a clear target in mind: a large section of the lower middle class that has become bankrupt because of the Saradha scam.

By Vivek Bhardwaj

When the Saradha scam exploded in her face, Mamata Banerjee turned into a philosopher and reportedly said ‘ja gechhey ta gechhey’ (what is gone is gone).

Didi can afford to resort to philosophy and for her money, like life, once lost may be something that can’t be regained. And, if you remember her ingenious plan of raising money for repaying those swindled by the Saradha group by exhorting them to light up more and cough up more tax on tobacco, she may also believe in Dev Anand’s romantic credo of blowing away every fikr in dhuan.

But, it is unlikely that Amit Shah believes in either romantic or philosophical piffle. He is a frosty, stern man who is swayed just by the political math of profit and loss. So, naturally, when in Kolkata on Sunday, he must have been influenced by cold, cruel facts and figures.

Here are some of them. An initial report filed by a special investigation team into the Saradha scam, a multi-tier ponzi scheme, revealed that more than Rs 2460 crore were mobilized by the group, which went bust in April 2013.

More than 1.7 million investors—most of them from low-income families—were duped by the swindlers. So far, just around 40,000 have got a part of their investments back. There are 17 lakh families waiting for their money to be returned.

So, when Shah launched a scathing attack on the West Bengal government and the chief minister on Sunday, he had a clear target in mind: a large section of the lower middle class of West Bengal that has become bankrupt because of the scam.

Shah couldn’t have timed his attack better. It came a day after Trinamool MP Kunal Ghosh demanded that Mamata be quizzed by the CBI for her role in the scam. Ghosh is one of the accused in the scam.

Shah is a shrewd man. He knows the TMC vote rests on two pillars in West Bengal: Mamata’s image and its minority votebase. Both are now on his hit-list, manifest clearly in his advice to Mamata that politics of ‘tushtikaran’ (appeasement) doesn’t pay.

The plan is simple: stoke the ‘anti-appeasement’ emotion and simultaneously demolish Mamta’s reputation.

The first comes naturally to Shah and the BJP and there is now dedicated category of voters in every state that believes in the BJP philosophy of ‘divide on religion, unite on development’ politics. Their numbers in Bengal too are growing.

But, it is the ‘attack Mamata’ strategy that could be Shah’s masterstroke in West Bengal.

Mamata’s party is struggling to distance itself from its proximity to the Saradha group. Mamata accepting donations of ambulances, vehicles from the tainted group, its owners buying Banerjee’s paintings for 1.5 crore, the involvement of her erstwhile blue-eyed boy Ghosh in the scam are well-documented and known. There are fears within the party cadres that investigations into deals of media houses owned by Saradha could involve heavyweight like Mukul Roy and Srinjoy Bose.

Obviously, Mamata has a lot to lose if Shah continues to talk about Saradha and Bengal’s voters start believing him. The BJP is at a tipping point in Bengal’s politics. In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the party secured 17 percent votes. With every incremental gain now, it stands to benefit a lot in terms of seats.

The Congress is on the brink of extinction in the state; the Left is marginalized and demoralized. Only Mamata stands in the way of the BJP’s forward march. Ergo, the more Mamata loses, the more the BJP gains.

The Saradha Group managed to gain legitimacy among investors because its name was inspired by one of the biggest spiritual icons of the region.

Shah’s strategy too may find political legitimacy because it targets the biggest political icon of the state.

Mamata beware. Even in politics, ja gechhey ta gechhey.