Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce will head to Europe for a seven day whirlwind trip to map out Australia's agriculture trade future post-Brexit Credit:AAP But as desperate as Labor is to win Queensland, the Coalition is just as desperate to hold it. Every major party's most marginal seat – Capricornia for the Nationals, Forde for the Liberal Party and Herbert for Labor – sit in Queensland. And in a Parliament governed by a majority of one, holding those seats has become more important than ever. It's why the issue of Adani's proposed coal mine in the Galilee Basin is being treated with kid gloves by all sides. Championed by the Coalition (despite what it could do to the industry in other states) and shown a turned cheek by Labor (which needs to support it for those critical mining economies in the central north while showing environmental responsibility in the south-east), Adani has presented a minefield the majors are still learning to navigate. Leading the charge for the Coalition is Nationals' leader Barnaby Joyce.

The Deputy Prime Minister has personally intervened to settle two issues that were threatening to derail the Coalition attempts to keep the electorate happy since the election: a dispute between landholders and Defence over the compulsory acquisition of land, and wrangling an industry code of conduct to settle a fight between sugar growers and the companies they sell to. His role is not only to keep Coalition electorates blue, but stop the momentum of disgruntled Nationals voters drifting One Nation's way. "You have to understand the nature of Queensland, it moves in bulk," he says. "We've been down to a phone box, the Labor Party have been down to a phone box. The polarity in Queensland is different and it has seismic shifts. So you have to get it."

Mr Joyce is determined the Nationals will fight the battle for Queensland on jobs and the economy. He points to Matt Canavan, who is considered a rising star in the LNP, and the work he is doing to bring attention to central and north Queensland. Senator Canavan, who doubles as the Resources Minister and Minister for North Queensland, is very deliberately based in Rockhampton, helping fend off Labor's appeal in a traditional working class region. Beyond his interventions, Mr Joyce is taking a personal interest – he's made 14 visits to the state since the election, one of a growing conga line of federal politicians, ministers and their shadows traipsing north, all seeking to make that connection that could turn one of those crucial electorates. In that same time, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has made 13 visits to the state himself, including a big chunk of the crucial post-budget week, selling his economic plan to the people he needs the most to buy it. Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has made 23 visits to Queensland since the election, including 14 visits just this year – holding town halls and heading out to the regions, while the "Bill Bus", a 2016 election staple, was also recently sent on a listening tour down the state. He too wants to fight for voters' hearts on jobs and the economy. And with Queensland coming tantalising close to delivering government to Labor – with Capricornia and Forde sitting on a knife's edge, he senses blood in the water.

"I think the Coalition have taken Queensland for granted," he said. "What have they done for Queensland? Most of their infrastructure expenditure was just spent on finishing programs started under the previous Labor administration." The last time the sunshine state received so much attention from the federal sphere was when its leader declared his intention to take on Bob Hawke while at Disneyland. But unlike the Joh-for-PM days, this time that focus is serious. Twenty-one of Queensland's 30 federal seats belong to the Coalition. Labor won eight in 2016, while Bob Katter retained Kennedy. Despite losing Longman and Herbert to Labor in the election, it regained Fairfax from Clive Palmer, giving it a net loss of one. NSW only delivered the government two more seats than Queensland, despite its mass of electorates. Victoria finished the election with just 17 Coalition seats.

In a game of numbers, Queensland holds all the cards – eight of its electorates, including Immigration Minister Peter Dutton's, are considered in play. The victor of Operation: Win Queensland takes the prime minister's chair. It's been more than three decades since the Gold Coast, Australia's sixth largest city, has had a senator of any party based on its shores. Since losing the last of its hard won Queensland seats in the 2012 state election, Labor had all but abandoned the region to the Liberal Party, at all levels of government. But with government in sight, Labor now wants a piece of it back. It's Senator Watt's job to help make that happen. "As one of my Victorian colleagues put it to me, the road to government runs through Queensland," Senator Watt said, his sleeves rolled up against the Queensland winter heat. "There is no doubt the federal election will be won and lost in Queensland – every serious political player would recognise that. "Labor has underperformed, federally, in this state. And it is hard for us to win. But not impossible. There is a lot of space for us here, a lot of people who feel they have been under-represented. I'm here to show them that Labor has delivered for them in the past, and can deliver for them again."

One Nation's momentum may have been slowed in its home state, but Pauline Hanson remains popular. Both major parties are dedicating resources to quell the drift of supporters to the outlier party, but without answers to Queensland's unemployment issue, which sits as one of the highest on the mainland and reaches double digits outside of the south-east, their efforts are hamstrung. With a state election due to be held between now and the next federal election, both the major parties are looking at the impact One Nation and the Greens will have on their vote. The last election saw Queensland produce its lowest primary vote for both parties since World War II. Greens senator Larissa Waters also points to the economy. "Millions of Queenslanders are enduring the lowest wage growth in a generation, hundreds of thousands of Queenslanders are paying massive rents, or are one mortgage payment away from default," she said. "Hundreds of thousands of young people can't afford a house or can't get a job. "And all the two old parties do is dole out favours to their mates to pay back the millions they get in political donations."

ABC election analyst Antony Green believes the state campaign will interact with the federal one – but said Labor still faces a battle in a state that traditionally leans to the right at a national level. "That has always been a problem for the Labor Party in Queensland. It may do well at a state level, but at federal levels, the central periphery of politics becomes very dominant," he said. "The argument about Melbourne versus Canberra, or Sydney versus Canberra rarely comes up. But Queensland versus Canberra does come up. In Western Australia it comes up, in Tasmania it comes up, in South Australia it comes up, it is just that it is much harder for Labor to do well in Queensland federally, than it is at state level." But Mr Green points out it is a long time until the next federal election. And there is an electoral redistribution to come. That has already seen the LNP move to protect Mr Dutton's seat of Dickson, submitting to the electoral commission a boundary change that would move conservative voting pockets out of Longman, and Lilley into Mr Dutton's seat.

Former Herbert MP Ewen Jones, who was the surprise casualty of the 2016 election and regularly talks to Mr Turnbull to help the Coalition stay on top of north Queensland issues, believes voters just want to be listened to. It's a state with "real problems", he said, which needs "real answers". Paula Graeber, who lives on the Gold Coast more than 1400 kilometres away from Mr Jones, agrees. Loading "Just listen to the people and what they want," she said.

"It doesn't seem that hard."