The possible impact of the Social Democrats July 17, 2015

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Irish Politics

The Social Democrats were launched during the week, will they do well and what possible electoral ramifications are there should they do well?

I think they could be the final part of Labour getting totally and utterly hammered at the polls. There were probably quite a number of people come the campaign that were prepared with a heavy heart to vote Labour. They didn’t fancy Sinn Fein, The Left were too Left for them and they hadn’t forgiven FF. Also FF were beginning to rise in the polls as people finally lost patience with the Government and started to forgive FF or at least think they couldn’t do as bad a job as Fine Gael and Labour, that FF had more political sense and wouldn’t have made some of the various recent cutbacks we’ve seen. The new party will appeal to them.

Should they get decent candidates in Dublin Bay South and Dublin Rathdown, Its formation has more than likely scuppered any hope of a TD for The Greens.

For all those centre and centre left voters who felt abandoned by Labour and Fianna Fail but couldn’t vote Left or Sinn Fein, now they have a realistic option other than voting for an Independent.

They may also get those voters who were going to hold their nose and vote for Sinn Fein.

One other thing going for The Social Democrats is that they only have one TD in Dublin. It’s in Dublin where they are likely to make gains and also where there are already a lot of ex Labour people that were elected as Councillors last year.

Despite the poll ratings for Independents, it’s highly unusual for someone to be elected as an Independent without being a Councillor or a high profile person like Mick Wallace. Of our Current Independent TDs all bar Donnelly, Fitzmaurice and Wallace were either Independent or Party TDs or Councillors prior to being elected. Hence the Independents Alliance in that whilst you may be an Independent you are also associated with Shane Ross or John Halligan, that you have a wider sphere than just the constituency.

I was down the West recently for a week and one of the things that struck me was the vastness of many of the constituencies. For instance in Galway West it would be very difficult for an Independent Councillor based in say Oranmore to get a profile in Connemara and vice versa. An Independent Councillor elected in Listowel would find it hard to get any kind of profile in Killarney and so on. Hence the Councillors joining Renua or The Ross Alliance.

The Social Democrats now provide another vehicle for Independent Councillors to increase their profile.

So far their launch, social media and website have been very professional, I’d hazard they will get over 10% in the first opinion poll ….. and make many a councillor regret joining Ross or Renua!