Election call: It is Obama COMMENTARY

Call me a fool, but I'm not waiting until a week from Tuesday.

I'm calling the Texas Democratic primary today.

It's Barack Obama.

My projection is based on the numbers.

"But the polls have been notoriously off base," said a colleague.

That's why I'm not relying on the polls, although they are showing Obama pulling even.

I'm basing my prediction on early voting patterns.

The Texas Secretary of State's Office has posted the totals for the first three days of early voting in the state's 15 largest counties.

Turnout is up dramatically across the state compared to the first three days of 2004, especially for Democrats.

But what tells the story is where it is up most dramatically.

Not a bad jump, but . . .

Among the top 15 counties, the ones where Sen. Hillary Clinton is expected to fare the best with the help of older Hispanic voters are:

•El Paso, where the percentage of registered voters voting in the Democratic Party in the first three days was 2.7 times what it was in 2004.

•Hidalgo, the border county where McAllen is the largest city, where the Democratic turnout was 1.6 times that of 2004.

•Nueces County, which includes Corpus Christi, where the turnout was 2.5 times that of 2004.

•Cameron County, including the border city of Brownsville, where for the first two days (I was unable to get the third), the turnout was 3.1 times that of 2004.

So in Clinton country turnout is up 50 percent to 200 percent. Not bad.

Big cities and suburbs

But in the counties that are seen as Obama country the increases ranged from 400 percent all the way up to 870 percent:

•Harris County saw 8.3 times as many people vote in the Democratic primary as in the first three days of 2004.

•Dallas County went up a stunning 9.7 times.

•Tarrant County, including Fort Worth, voted at 7.6 times the 2004 rate.

•And Travis County, home of the People's Republic of Austin, turned out at 5 times the 2004 rate, which was already one of the highest in the state.

These numbers are particularly striking in light of the assertion by Clinton officials that they are concentrating their efforts on the early vote. It appears they need to concentrate harder.

I ran these numbers by Royal Masset, Austin-based Republican strategist and former political director of the state party, and SMU political scientist Cal Jillson, who is knowledgeable about state and Metroplex politics.

They both agreed that the turnout differential described above boded well for Obama. But both were equally impressed by what is happening in traditionally Republican suburban counties.

In Collin County, which includes the upscale Dallas suburb of Plano, the Democratic turnout was nearly 12 times as much this year as four years ago. In Williamson County, just north of Austin, the turnout was seven times as much.

And in Tom DeLay's Fort Bend County, the turnout in the Democratic primary was 15 times what it was four years ago.

In all three suburban counties, significantly more Democrats have already voted this year than Republicans — a striking shift from four years ago.

Something new going on

In 2004, 4 times as many Republicans voted in Fort Bend's first three days as Democrats. This year the Democrats pulled in 5,259 voters to the Republicans' 4,103.

"That has to be Obama," said Masset. "Hillary would attract the normal Democratic people. Clearly there is something new going on in these counties."

One of the things going on is a shift among independents. As exit polls have shown in other parts of the country, Obama does well among independents. And some independents may be going where the action is in the primary but haven't yet committed for November.

And some Republicans are voting in the Democratic primary.

Houston Republican campaign consultant Mary Jane Smith says a number of her Republican friends tell her they are voting for Obama in the Democratic primary.

"They'll come home in the fall," she said.

Smith said she would prefer they vote for Clinton, because Hillary would help some of her clients by turning out more otherwise dispirited Republican voters in the fall.

But her friends are afraid a Democrat might win the White House, and they want to make sure it isn't Clinton.

But Republican interlopers are likely a small part of these numbers.

One part of the dynamic is a dirty little secret that I'd ask you to keep to yourselves.

Texans have done an excellent job of perpetrating the myth that we are different than the rest of the nation.

We are. But not nearly as much as we'd like to think, or we'd like the rest of the nation to think.

The same factors that carried the last 10 states for Obama will carry Texas.

You can write to Rick Casey at P.O. Box 4260, Houston, TX 77210, or e-mail him at rick.casey@chron.com