The entry of a sitting Trinamool Congress MP, Saumitra Khan, into the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could be a sign of the changing political fortunes of the saffron party in Bengal.

The defection of Khan, who is reputed to have worked hard for his Bishnupur Lok Sabha constituency and enjoys a clean image, triggered rumours of some more sitting and former Trinamool MPs and MLAs joining the saffron ranks.

But it is not just Trinamool leaders and workers joining the BJP that signals a surge in the BJP's acceptability and popularity in Bengal. Proof of that lies in the huge crowds that the party has been attracting at its rallies, street-corner meetings and other programmes across the state.

Though the BJP's ‘save democracy’ yatras in Bengal are yet to take off due to the ongoing court battle triggered by the Bengal government's efforts to scuttle them, the ‘law violation’ programmes and small rallies addressed by a host of party leaders, including some mid-ranking ones who are not so well-known, have been attracting good crowds.

State BJP president Dilip Ghosh says that these crowds, and the “enthusiastic response” that the party has been receiving through its various mass contact programmes, prove that the “tide is turning” in BJP's favour in Bengal.

Trinamool Lok Sabha MP, Anupam Hazra, who was expelled from the party along with Khan (as soon as Khan joined the BJP), is one among four other Trinamool MPs who are said to be in touch with the BJP leadership. At least eight Trinamool MLAs are reportedly ready to break ranks with their party and join the BJP.

The BJP leadership is looking forward to a favourable order from the Supreme Court on the party’s petition challenging the Bengal government’s bar on the holding of the ‘save democracy’ yatras.

“A galaxy of top leaders of our party, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and our president Amit Shah, apart from many Union ministers, will address scores of rallies in Bengal as part of these yatras. That will energise our cadres and attract more people to our party,” said Ghosh.

The poaching of Trinamool MPs, legislators, leaders and workers by the BJP is a well-crafted strategy to demoralise Trinaool cadres. The BJP’s task has been made easier by the style of functioning of Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee.

“She (Mamata) is quick-tempered and insults even senior leaders in front of everyone. She is also so insecure that she will not tolerate any one in the party becoming popular beyond a certain point. She does not allow her MPs and MLAs to get credit for the hard work they do. She wants all the credit for herself. So a large number of Trinamool leaders are very unhappy. But they are scared of leaving the party because they know how vindictive she can get,” said a former Trinamool legislator from North Bengal who did not get a party ticket in 2016 because of (as he puts it) his growing popularity among the people of his constituency.

Another popular grouse among many Trinamool leaders is that Mamata Banerjee gives tickets only to celebrities and those who lack a popular support base. “Most of the Trinamool MPs and MLAs thus have no standing among the masses and depend on Mamata Banerjee to win.

It is her charisma that gets them votes, and so they are totally dependent on the party chief. Without her, they count for nothing. But the grassroots leaders, the ones who have worked for the party and built the party, are never rewarded with tickets since Mamata Banerjee fears they could become more popular or powerful than her and could eventually challenge her or her nephew (her anointed successor Abhishek Banerjee),” said the former president of a district unit of Trinamool. He was unceremoniously removed from his post a couple of years ago.

Thus, many organisational-level leaders of the Trinamool are very unhappy with their party leadership and it is these people that the BJP is in touch with. Most of them had been close to Mukul Roy , who was Mamata Banerjee’s closest lieutenant and had helped build the Trinamool.

Roy had a fallout with Mamata Banerjee and was suspended from the party; he joined the BJP later. “Mukul Roy knows most booth-level Trinamool workers and has kept in touch with many leaders and workers of the Trinamool. Many of them will either join the BJP before the Lok Sabha elections or covertly help the BJP,” said a senior state-level BJP leader.

The aggressive stance adopted by the BJP has helped. “In all elections since 2011, the BJP has emerged as the runners-up and displaced the Left and the Congress to the sidelines. The BJP is the principal opposition party in Bengal now.

The BJP has also won many gram panchayat seats in the last rural polls. There exists a latent anger among the people against the Trinamool, but the voter in Bengal needs to know that the BJP has the wherewithal to put up a fight against the Trinamool. Only then will he support the BJP. By going all out against the Trinamool, the BJP has shown that it is serious about challenging Mamata Banerjee and dislodging her from power,” said a senior BJP office-bearer.

He pointed out that at all the small towns and villages across Bengal where BJP leaders have been addressing rallies, the gatherings have been spontaneous. “People are shedding their fear of the vindictive Trinamool and are flocking to our rallies. That is a very good and encouraging development. Earlier, people would be scared to come to our rallies because of fear of retribution by the Trinamool. Now, Trinamool workers and local-level leaders themselves come to our rallies,” said state BJP chief Ghosh.

Ghosh attributed the growing support for the BJP to a sharp rise in unemployment, a stagnant economy, farm distress, increasing poverty and lack of development in the state. All this, coupled with “Mamata Banerjee’s blatant minority appeasement that actually does nothing for the minorities”, says Ghosh, has led to growing anger against the Trinamool.

“People have realised that despite Mamata’s tall talks, nothing has happened in Bengal and the state has actually declined in all spheres. People see and suffer the corruption by Trinamool leaders and are disgusted with the extortionist ‘syndicates’ that enjoy the Trinamool’s patronage. That is why I say that the BJP is gaining a lot of popularity in Bengal,” said Ghosh.

Ghosh is confident that the growing support for his party will show in the next Lok Sabha polls, before which, he adds, Trinamool will suffer more defections (to the BJP) from its ranks. Bengal, thus, is headed for politically interesting times.