Some All-Stars aren't afraid to embrace sabermetrics

Steve Gardner | USA TODAY Sports

NEW YORK — By and large, Major League Baseball players are an instinctive bunch.

Ask any player why he has had success or what he needs to do to improve and odds are he'll give you the standard, "I have to stay within myself and not try to do too much" answer.

Occasionally though, there are a few who prefer to go a little bit deeper into the world of self-analysis.

The All-Star Game provided a perfect petri dish to see the different kinds of players who have made it to the top of their profession and find out some of their thoughts about the way the game is played — and analyzed.

The first thing I found out is that many do subscribe to a simple "see the ball, hit the ball" approach. (At least that's all they're willing to admit.)

But there were others willing to go a little deeper about some of their most important statistics.

Chris Davis — O-swing%

One of the biggest stories of the season's first half was the power surge from Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis. He led the majors in home runs at the break with 37, which put him on pace for 62 over a full season.

One pace Davis might not be able to keep up in the second half of the season is his home run-to-fly ball ratio, which sits at a major league-leading 34%. (Pedro Alvarez is the only other hitter currently above 30%. And only one player in the past decade has had a higher HR/FB rate over a full season, according to FanGraphs.com: Ryan Howard at 39.5% in 2006.)

Those numbers might suggest Davis' first half was a fluke. Not quite. "I think I've grown as a hitter," he says. "I've learned a little more about myself and the strike zone, and I've really learned to be patient."

Statistical evidence backs him up. He's not swinging at balls out of the strike zone as much as he has in the past. This statistic is called his O-swing%, and his is 35.4%, according to FanGraphs.com.

"I learned how to be a little more patient at the plate," Davis says. "I used to think when I got up to the plate I had to hit a home run before I got two strikes because there was no way I was going to put the ball in play."

As a result, his walk rate (6.8% through Sunday) is better than it ever has been, and his 28% strikeout rate — while high even for a power hitter — is the lowest it has been since his rookie season.

Add in a significant increase in Davis' hard-hit balls (45%, up from 35% last season, according to BaseballHQ.com), and all the elements have come together for a potentially historic power season.

"He can use the whole field," says last year's American League Triple Crown winner, Miguel Cabrera, who leads the AL in batting average and RBI this season but trailed Davis by seven in homers entering the week. "When you're able to do that, there's no way they're going to find a hole to pitch him."

Of Davis' 37 first-half homers, 13 went to the opposite field.

"I think he hits more for power. I hit more line drives," Cabrera says.

Their duel for the home run title could be one of the most interesting story lines of the second half.

Jason Kipnis — BB/K ratio

One player who started the season hitting like anything but an All-Star is the Cleveland Indians' Jason Kipnis.

Hitting .200 with one homer and four RBI at the end of April, Kipnis found a way to turn things around. By the break, he raised his average to .301 with 13 homers and 57 RBI … and became an All-Star for the first time.

"I've always been a streaky hitter," he says. "I can get as hot as the best of 'em, but I can also get as cold as the best of 'em."

What's his secret?

"When I'm going well, I know I'm spraying the ball all over the field. I'm going to the opposite field. When I'm going bad, you're going to see roll-overs to first and second. You're going to see strikeouts," he says. "When I see that happening, I immediately know — 'Hey, let's get it back to where it needs to be. Let's start going the other way.'"

Sure enough, of his 14 home runs through Sunday, six have been to the opposite field (left), one to center and seven to right field.

With his combination of power and speed (21 steals), Kipnis currently is the top-rated fantasy second baseman, ahead of even fellow All-Stars Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia.

Like Davis, Kipnis is conscious of making sure he's not swinging at bad pitches. To help him stay on track, he checks two key metrics.

"One of them (is) percentages of balls out of the strike zone that you're swinging at," Kipnis says. "And I try to keep a good walk-to-strikeout (BB/K) ratio — even though I've dug myself a real deep hole in strikeouts, as long as you're (below) two strikeouts to one walk, you're doing well."

Jeff Locke — defensive runs saved

One of this season's most surprising All-Stars was Pittsburgh Pirates left-hander Jeff Locke.

Battling for the No.5 spot in the rotation this spring, Locke, 25, has been the Bucs' most consistent pitcher to date. He has posted a 9-2 record and 2.11 ERA despite striking out an average of 6.2 batters per nine innings.

Skeptics will point to a .224 opponents' batting average on balls in play — the lowest in the majors among qualified starters. He also has the worst differential between his ERA and his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which estimates the ERA of a pitcher based on strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed, of any starter this season: 2.11 ERA vs. 3.76 FIP.

Those numbers seem to indicate Locke has been incredibly lucky over the first half. He prefers to think it's because he has pitched efficiently.

"I think that's because the strikeout rate isn't there," he says. "Outs are outs. No one's touching the little white thing at home plate so that's all that matters to me."

He has allowed six home runs in 19 starts, but part of that is because of the extremely pitcher-friendly conditions at home.

PNC Park ranks last in the majors in promoting both scoring and home runs, according to ESPN's Park Factor calculations.

That may be one reason why Pittsburgh has the majors' best ERA. Even more important, Locke says, is the Pirates defense, which ranks third overall in defensive runs saved at plus 32.

"Starling Marte in left field and (Andrew) McCutchen in center," Locke points out, "on most teams, no one gets to a ball in the gap, but these two guys argue over who's going to catch it."

Matt Moore — wins(?)

Although the Detroit Tigers' Max Scherzer got the nod as the AL starter in the All-Star Game, Tampa Bay Rays left-hander Matt Moore can match Scherzer's 13 wins.

But Moore doesn't get caught up in the numbers — at least not his win total.

"I feel very fortunate to have 13 under my name right now," he says. "I think wins and losses have their place, but they can kinda throw you off to a certain extent."

Moore points to his offense as the primary reason for his high win total. Entering his start on Monday, he had an average of 5.58 runs of support, third best in the majors. (Scherzer is first at 5.95).

For Moore, his most important number is innings pitched because of its impact on the bullpen.

"Winning games is great; that's what we're here for," he says. "But if you throw five innings and give up one run and you leave 12 outs for the bullpen, somebody else should probably get a W too. There's a lot of innings to cover there."

Coming from a pitcher, that's music to many sabermetricians' ears.

Follow Gardner on Twitter @SteveAGardner