Bulgaria is likewise a member of NATO and the Union, but its post-Cold War experience has been far more problematic than Poland’s: It can be judged as anything but a success.

And given the country’s relative proximity to the Middle East, it’s no surprise that a majority of Bulgarians have a greater fear of Turkish hegemony and so-called radical Islam than of Russian aggression.

According to a poll by Alpha Research taken around the same time as the Institute for Public Affairs survey, a majority of Bulgarians do not perceive the war in Ukraine as a major threat, and the annexation of Crimea has hardly altered their generally positive view of Moscow. In fact, Bulgarians tend to blame America rather than Russia for the crisis in Ukraine.

Here’s where it gets interesting, though. Despite Polish concerns over Russia, the majority of Poles oppose weapons deliveries to Ukraine, and an even larger majority are reluctant to let Ukrainians travel freely in the European Union. Confronted with the stark choice between Russia and the West, the vast majority of Bulgarians opt for the West, and more than 70 percent find the Brussels-centered foreign policy of their government to be “balanced and reasonable.”

What explains this disconnect? Why are pro-Russian Bulgarians ready to follow Brussels and anti-Russian Poles not ready to follow Washington?

The answer may be less counterintuitive than we imagine. Poles have understandable doubts about the security guarantees proffered by NATO and the European Union that are rooted in their troubled history with Western security guarantees and their obvious fear of facing the Russian threat alone. They were also burned by their support for America’s war in Iraq.

And while Bulgarians sympathize with Russians, it is precisely because of their familiarity with Moscow’s ways that they do not consider the Putin regime as a model to be followed.