It’s well known that the Championship is a mad league, far more dog eat dog than almost any other. That said, most seasons follow a broad pattern; one team makes the running and is obvious champions for most of the year (Leicester, Cardiff, Reading), there’s usually a decent battle for second, and then someone sneaks into the play offs off the back of a 12 game winning streak.

This year has somewhat bucked the trend. Instead, going into the final 12 games we’ve got a glorious 8 way battle for promotion. At various times, we’ve seen break aways, but but they’ve all been pulled back into the peloton.

So I decided to do some more boring number geekery to see what the underlying stats, particularly in the games between the top 8 might look like.

Derby

Games remaining against the top 8: Middlesbrough, Watford, Brentford (h), Norwich, Wolves (a)

It’s fair to say that Derby (probably the best team I’ve seen at the Vic this year) have a decent track record against their fellow contenders, having not lost at home (won 2, drawn 2) and having won 2 of their 5 away games so far. On average they take 2 points per game at home and 1.4 away from these games, so look likely to take 6 points from their remaining games at the iPro and a statistically impossible 2.8 from their away trips.

Against the rest of the division, Derby have been garnering over 2.2 points per game on home turf, and a more than decent 1.75 away from home. With 3 home games and 4 away against the rest of the division, they’ll be looking at taking around 14 points across their 7 games against the rest.

Predicted final points total: 87 (Champions)

Middlesbrough

Games remaining against the top 8: Ipswich, Wolves (h), Derby, Bournemouth, Norwich, Watford (a)

Undefeated at home, having won 3 and drawn 2, Boro’s road form hasn’t been quite so good, with 2 losses and one win away from the Riverside. They average 2.2 at home, but just one away. With 4 away trips to come, this could prove their achilles heel.

Whilst their outstanding defence has meant that they’ve conceded less than a goal a game, Boro average less than two points per game home (1.92) and away (1.86) They’ve got 4 home games, versus two away, which should bring home 11 points for them.

Predicted final points total: 83 (joint 3rd)

Norwich

Games remaining against the top 8: Derby, Middlesbrough (h)

Norwich have a superb record against their fellow top 8 clubs, having amassed 23 points overall. Their home record of won 3, drawn 1 lost 1 gives them an average, like Derby of 2 points a game – and so in theory should be looking at 4 points from their remaining 2 games against the other dog fighting clubs.

Against the rest, Norwich have average 1.83 points at home, versus 1.7 away. With 4 games remaining at Carrow Road, and 6 away, they should be looking at adding an additional 18 points to carry them over the line.

Predicted final points total: 84 (2nd)

Watford

Games remaining against the top 8: Ipswich, Middlesbrough (h), Wolves, Derby (a)

The Orns have the worst record of any of the clubs against the rest of the top 8, having gained just 8 points from the teams around them, having identical home and away records of won 1, drawn 1, and lost 3 for an average of 0.8 points, home and away. Quite how they’ll get 3.2 points from the remaining four games is anyone’s guess.

Home or away, against the rest Watford have been sensational, averaging 2.4 points at home and 2.08 away. With a mix of 4 home and 4 away, we should be looking at adding 18 points to our total.

Unfortunately, that terrible form against the top 8 could cost us automatic promotion.

Predicted final points total: 83 (joint 3rd)

Bournemouth

Games remaining against the top 8: Middlesbrough (h), Ipswich (a)

Eddie Howe’s much lauded Cherries have been reasonably effective both home and away, picking up 17 points in total, and will somehow look to gain 1.8 points from their meeting with Middlesbrough. Away from home, they average 1 point a game, so a draw against Ipswich wouldn’t be unlikely.

Against the rest, the south coasters have been very average at home, only taking 1.72 points per game, being far stronger on the road – taking 2.18 points per game. They’ve got 4 home and 5 away games to come, and are looking at adding about 17 points.

Predicted final points total: 81 (joint 4th)

Ipswich

Games remaining against the top 8: Brentford, Bournemouth (h), Middlesbrough, Watford, Wolves (a)

The Tractor Boys have been strong at home against their fellow promotion chasers, only dropping points to (of all people) Norwich at Portman Road. Away from home, they’ve been similarly hard to beat having won 1 and drawn 2 of their four games. Of their remaining games against the top 8, (2 home, 3 away) they’ll be looking at around 9 points.

Against the rest, they’ve averaged just over 2 points per game at home, but only 1.5 on the road (the lowest of the top 8) With 4 home and 3 away games to come against the rest, they’re looking at around 13 points extra.

Predicted final points total: 81 (joint 4th)

Brentford

Games remaining against the top 8: Wolves (h), Ipswich, Derby (a)

Arguably the season’s surprise package, the Bees have won 3 & lost 3 at home against their fellow promotion chasers for an average of 1.5 points per game, but have really struggled on the road, taking just 0.6 points per game in losing 4 and winning just 1. With 1 game remaining at home, and 2 away, they’re looking at gaining 3 points.

Against the rest, they’ve been much more successful reaping 2.18 points per game at Griffin Park, and 1.8 on the road. With 6 home and 4 away games to come, this should see them add 20 points to their total.

Predicted final points total: 81 (joint 4th)

Wolves

Games remaining against the top 8: Watford, Derby, Ipswich (h), Bournemouth, Middlesbrough (a)

Last season’s League One Champions have carried some of that form into their return to the Championship, and although having tailed off somewhat, have fought their way back into contention for a second successive promotion under Kenny Jackett.

Against the top 8, the Wanderers have been formidable at Molineux, reaping 2.25 points per game in winning 3 and losing 1. Away from home has been less good, seeing just 1 win (at Vicarage Road in a terrible, terrible boxing day game) and 4 losses giving them an average of 0.6 points per game. With 3 home and 2 away games to come, they’re looking like taking 8 points from those remaining games.

Against the rest, the midlanders haven’t been anywhere near as effective at home, taking 1.7 points per game (winning 6, drawing 4 and losing 3) versus a very decent 1.92 points on their travels. With 3 home games and 4 away, they can be looking at picking up around 13 more points. It won’t, unfortunately, be enough for them though.

Predicted final points total: 78 (8th)

That final (predicted) table:

Derby 87 Norwich 84 Watford 83 M’boro 83 Brentford 81 Ipswich 81 B’mouth 81 Wolves 78

(NB: goal difference isn’t involved in this table – it’s only points being predicted. In essence 5th,6th and 7th places are totally up for grabs)

So, even by the mad standards of the Championship this is going to be tight. The final day always sees some drama, but this year could top anything previously. Ipswich and Bournemouth are the only teams on the road, facing Blackburn and Charlton respectively. The rest are at home against Wigan (Brentford), Reading (Derby), Brighton (Boro), Sheffield Wednesday (Watford) and Millwall (Wolves) All teams that may well have nothing to play for.

It’s going to be carnage…….

For context, the spread of the last four seasons has been:

2013/4 2012/13 Champions Leicester 102 Cardiff 87 Second Burnley 93 Hull 79 Sixth Brighton 72 Leicester 68 2011/12 2010/11 Champions Reading 89 QPR 88 Second Southampton 88 Norwich 84 Sixth Cardiff 75 Nottingham Forest 75

So it’s comparably tight to 2011/12 and 2010/11 from sixth to top. Similar points total too….