This probably isn’t intended to be a policy change. The terms and conditions always permitted the organization to cancel the event, without refund, in the event of an “act of God”, which arguably includes a pandemic of this nature. It may be more relevant if the organizers cancel the event at a time when the spread of the virus is more contained and life is returning to normal.

We have always faced the possibility that a permit would not be issued and the event would not proceed as planned (i.e., might not proceed with the org’s involvement). This would also permit the organizers to cancel, without offering a refund.

Ultimately, in the event Burning Man 2020 is cancelled, what the org would do about ticket refunds is anyone’s guess. A significant portion of their budget relates to year-round expenses, so they need some revenue to continue the organization regardless of whether the event occurs. However, they also appear to have a significant cash reserve (around $14.5 million as of 2018).

I believe it is unlikely if the event were to be cancelled, the org would simply cancel tickets without recourse. My guess is they would offer a refund to all purchasers, but allow people to roll their tickets forward into 2021 or 22. Absent this, they would likely simply give refunds, and ask for people to donate a portion of the ticket refund to the org to help sustain it until 2021. They might also do some fund-raising efforts to cover the budget gap and retain a cash cushion, a tradition dating back to at least 1997, and Larry’s famous “hay bail” speech. (Some people are still getting free tickets every year for pulling through for the event in ‘97). While anything can happen, the org is dependent upon a permit from the BLM, which seems unlikely to be granted. Fingers crossed, but the chances of event happening this year seems slim.