After being briefed on provincial modelling, Toronto public health officials say the city risks mass deaths unless dire measures are taken for the next 12 weeks.

Toronto’s medical officer of health Dr. Eileen de Villa announced new orders Wednesday morning, including mandatory home quarantine for people with COVID-19, and anyone who has had close contact with someone infected.

That came ahead of new reporting from Toronto Public Health that there have been 19 COVID-19-related deaths in the city — up 11 since the previous day.

Toronto officials, including de Villa, acknowledged they were imposing the new orders after seeing Ontario’s COVID-19 modelling, but referred specific questions about the projected outbreak numbers to provincial officials — who refused to detail those projections despite repeated questions on Wednesday.

At a press conference at city hall, unusually timed to preempt provincial updates scheduled for later in the day, de Villa outlining the growth in Toronto cases — more than 500 per cent in the last two weeks — and said she is now doing everything in her legal power to help prevent further spread.

“This is not a favourable trajectory,” she said. “And as your medical officer of health responsible for protecting the city’s health — your health — I am deeply concerned.”

Coun. Joe Cressy, the chair of the city’s board of health, said Wednesday that he, Mayor John Tory and others had been briefed Saturday by Toronto’s top medical officials on the state of the virus in the city and the “potential forecast for the future based on provincial modelling.”

“Based on that briefing, we believe there is a fierce urgency of now to implement immediate measures if we are going to stop the unnecessary loss of life and preserve the integrity of our healthcare system,” he said.

Asked if he was worried, Cressy said: “I think we have a narrow window upon which Toronto and our province can prevent significant loss of life and I cannot stress the importance of going hard and going now, which is what the city announced today.”

De Villa would not disclose what that modelling showed, referring questions to her provincial counterparts.

“There are a number of steps that are being taken by the province,” she said, noting she understands those officials are pursuing similar orders on a regional level and they continue to discuss how they can collaborate better together.

Premier Doug Ford refused to discuss the specifics of the modelling numbers on Wednesday.

“There’s different models … If we pick one model over another it sends two different messages,” he told reporters.

“Those models can drastically, drastically change. If we underestimate on one side and we overestimate on the other, and create a panic if we overestimate. But the facts are very clear. We’re going through turbulent waters. We’ve been saying it over and over again: make sure that you don’t congregate.”

Cressy, after listening to the premier’s press conference, told the Star: “In order to understand the urgency of this moment, it’s critical that the public fully understands the immediate risks at hand. Our collected and united response requires it.”

The new orders and recommendations from de Villa build on social distancing and other measures already in place. They will be in force for the next 12 weeks, until June 24. They are:

All individuals with COVID-19 must stay home under the Health Protection and Promotion Act for 14 days. The same order is issued for anyone who has close contact to somebody infected.

Anyone who is not ill or has not travelled is strongly directed to stay home, except for the following reasons: accessing healthcare or medication; shopping for groceries once per week; walking their dogs; getting daily exercise while maintaining physical distancing of at least two metres.

People returning from international travel must stay home, in accordance with an existing federal order.

Anyone over the age of 70, as the province announced this week, is strongly encouraged to stay home as much as possible

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Increased supports for self-isolation for those experiencing homelessness, only essential businesses staying open, and increased cleaning and active screening of employees of all businesses.

De Villa highlighted the growth of infections in Toronto over the past month, from 102 confirmed cases and 43 probable cases on March 18 to yesterday with 628 confirmed cases, another 165 probable infections with 65 people in hospital, 33 of them in intensive care.

That number increased to 653 confirmed cases on Wednesday.

That dramatic spread of the virus has put the city at risk of a deadly explosion of the virus and an overwhelming of the healthcare system now seen in other cities, including New York City.

As of Tuesday, New York, which saw its first COVID-19 case March 1, had almost 42,000 infections and almost 1,100 deaths, with no end in sight, de Villa said.

“That is a very stark picture, but one that is honest and is true and premised on the data in front of us,” de Villa said. “We must absolutely implement stronger measures to avoid the kinds of results we are seeing in places like New York City,” with an overwhelmed health care system and economic and social disruption.

She said her department has also studied places like South Korea that have contained the virus’s spread.

“I am saying in the strongest terms possible that people need to stay home as much as possible,” de Villa said.

De Villa said she will ask the provincial government to further reduce the kinds of businesses that are allowed to remain open. Ford warned Wednesday the list of businesses allowed to be open would change.

“If we do not take these actions today, the city will see substantially increased loss of life, and may not begin to recover, economically and as a society, until the end of 2020,” the city said in a news release.

Tory told reporters he is “locking the city down as much as any municipal government could,” under the emergency declaration made earlier.

The mayor, who was previously in self-isolation after business-related travel, said he does not relish imposing the escalating limits on personal freedom, “but I believe it’s necessary to protect the public and save many, many lives.”

What happens next, he said, is up to all residents.

“You want to go and visit and give a hug to your mother or grandmother as soon as you can. You want to go out to a restaurant and sit on a patio and have a beer. You want to watch your kids once again able to play on a playground without restriction. You want to enjoy a summer festival, go to a Blue Jays game, hang out on the beach with friends. You want to take your dog to an off-leash park once again.” Tory said.

“Getting to those better days will depend on our collective response as a city. We have it in our control to make those better days come sooner.”

As de Villa spoke, Ontario’s chief medical officer announced he is “strongly urging” other municipalities to follow Toronto’s lead. Local public health leaders should invoke a law allowing them to issue orders restricting the movements of COVID-19 patients and their contacts, said Dr. David Williams.

“The powers are in the communicable disease section of the Health Protection and Promotion Act to ensure cases and contacts of people with the new coronavirus are isolated,” said Williams.

With files from Rob Ferguson and Moira Welsh

David Rider is the Star’s City Hall bureau chief and a reporter covering city hall and municipal politics. Follow him on Twitter: @dmrider