While everyone’s attention is focused on the Democrat primary in New Hampshire tomorrow night, a new poll shows some significant changes that upend much of the conventional wisdom about the shape of the upcoming contests.

The top line

#NEW National Quinnipiac Poll: Sanders 25%

Biden 17%

Bloomberg 15%

Warren 14%

Buttigieg 10%

Klobuchar 4%

Everyone else 2% or less — Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) February 10, 2020

Notice who has slipped into third place. Ever since Bloomberg entered the race, I’ve said his strategy is to, in poker parlance, buy the pot. Sanders’s support is pretty well locked in an not going anywhere. He’s not going to lose a lot of votes but he’s also damned close to his ceiling. Bloomberg has yet to stand on a debate stage or, as far as I can tell, talk to single potential voter, but he doesn’t have to. Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar are competing for the 75% of the field that is not-Bernie. All he has to do is buy feel-good ads and let his competition tear one another to bloody rags and ride in on Super Tuesday after the rest have convinced America that they are not electable.

Second data point. Using Quinnipiac national polls in a series we can see the downward movement in Biden’s campaign.

Biden support in Quinnipiac polling: Apr 38%

May 35%

June 30%

July 22%

July 34%

Aug 32%

Aug 32%

Sept 25%

Oct 26%

Oct 27%

Oct 21%

Nov 24%

Dec 29%

Dec 30%

Jan 25%

Jan 26%

Now 17% — Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) February 10, 2020

The good news is that he still has more downward mobility.

Biden may or may not have a South Carolina firewall…

One of Biden’s self proclaimed selling points is that he is beloved of black voters. In fact, last Friday night he and billionaire dilettante Tom Steyer got in a heated argument of who had the most black friends:

Biden: I have double the blacks than you do Steyer : No you don't Bernie: I have 9 blacks supporting me 😂😭These clowns are really arguing about who has the most black friends. pic.twitter.com/oMWuX6FjS3 — OakTown ☢ Unfiltered (@hrtablaze) February 8, 2020

Mike Bloomberg is polling nearly as strong among black voters as is Biden. In fact, an old white bolshevik like Sanders isn’t doing all that bad. When you put it side by side with the January 28 Quinnipiac, you can see the total collapse of the myth of Biden’s popularity with black voters:

Biden 52

Sanders 15

Bloomberg 8

Warren 7

Buttigieg 0

Head-to-head match ups are also in the poll. This is the Stage V TDS point of view:

Quinnipiac – 2020 head to head matchups vs Trump: Bloomberg 51-42

Sanders 51-43

Biden 50-43

Klobuchar 49-43

Warren 48-44

Buttigieg 47-43 If these are Trump's numbers after his "best week ever," he's going to have a really bad time in November. Absolutely brutal poll for Trump. — Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) February 10, 2020

I don’t think it is all that useful to argue these kinds of match-ups long before the Democrat candidates are given a meaningful stress test. But I think Ryan Saavedra is correct.

These numbers are BS Quinnipiac is a left-leaning poll and has always had the worst possible numbers for Trump For example, they say Trump is at an all-time high for his approval rating at 43% Gallup said last week Trump was at 49% A 6-point difference is huge https://t.co/FEHUX760uY — Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) February 10, 2020

Trump’s approval here is 6 points lower than Gallup…and the sample is +6 Democrat. One also has to question the sanity of any poll that shows Bernie Sanders breaking 50% and being a better general election candidate than Klobuchar. Realistically, I think we can say that Trump’s competition here is going to be someone like Amy Klobuchar, who will be difficult for Trump to attack without hurting himself, or Michael Bloomberg, who has more money than the Almighty and match Trump at better than dollar-for-dollar in advertising and organization money.

On the whole, this paints a very grim future for both Biden and Warren. Both are hemorrhaging voters. Black voters are leaving Biden for Bloomberg. If Warren and Biden come in fourth and fifth in New Hampshire tomorrow night they will both be nearly broke by the time Super Tuesday rolls around. The question is whether Klobuchar or Buttigieg can fund and build a campaign fast enough to hold off Bloomberg.