Team success in the NFL is largely driven by the talent on the roster, but, even in recent history, we’ve seen numerous examples of talented teams underachieving due to poor coaching. And we’ve seen the reverse of that, as well.

Hot take: Coaching matters.

So after I ranked the all of the people in charge of building NFL rosters — you can read our ranking of league general managers here — it’s time to rank those tasked with turning a collection of talent into a team.

I’m using the same methodology I used for ranking the GMs: If I could hand-pick a coach to run a team I was starting from scratch, who would it be? Now, obviously, past results matter, but I’m more interested in what a coach will do going forward; not, necessarily, what he’s accomplished in the past.

I’m looking for a coach who values analytics, understands how to build a winning team in the modern NFL and one who has a good grasp on the strategic aspects of the game. I don’t want a figurehead who spouts off cliches and little else — though there is some value in that.

Admittedly, I don’t value the more nebulous requirements of the job — like managing the locker room and building a winning culture — as much as I probably should. And, like the NFL certainly was during this past offseason, I’m lean more toward offensive coaches. Those biases certainly affected the order of this list, so if your favorite coach is lower than you expected, those are possible explanation as to why.

With that out of the way, let’s get to the rankings…

Rookies coaches

We have no idea what to expect out of any of these guys, so we’re automatically putting them at the bottom of the list. I’ve ranked them based on my own expectations, and I’m fully prepared to be completely wrong about each and every one of them…

32. Zac Taylor, Bengals

31. Matt LaFleur, Packers

30. Brian Flores, Dolphins

29. Vic Fangio, Broncos

28. Freddie Kitchens, Browns

27. Kliff Kingsbury, Cardinals

Kliff Kingsbury and Freddie Kitchens go to the top because they seem to understand how a modern offense should operate. Vic Fangio has been a great coach in this league for a long time, so I’ll put him third. Brian Flores impressed during his lone season as the Patriots’ defensive coordinator, so he goes right behind Fangio. And Matt LaFleur and Zac Taylor go to the bottom because the best thing they got going for them is that they know Sean McVay.

TIER 5: No thanks

26. Pat Shurmur, Giants

I’m putting Shurmur last on this list based entirely on his usage of Saquon Barkley. Not so fun fact for Giants fans: C.J. Anderson, who sat out the middle of the season and admitted he was overweight during his time with the Rams, got more targets out of the slot than Barkley did in 2018.

25. Mike Vrabel, Titans

This might be unfair to Vrabel, who has done something interesting things schematically during his time in Houston and Tennessee, but it’s hard to put a second-year coach who hasn’t won anything during his coaching career higher on the list. Maybe he should be in the next tier but I couldn’t justify putting him over these next two coaches. Get back to me in a year.

24. Doug Marrone, Jaguars

Marrone’s vision for the Jaguars would have made a lot more sense 20 years ago. Despite all of the evidence suggesting that an offense should not be built around the run game, Jacksonville is sticking with the “three yards and a cloud of dust” approach.

23. Adam Gase, Jets

Gase doesn’t seem to get along with his players and his reputation as a QB Whisperer is based on coaching Peyton Manning and that one season where he made Jay Cutler look OK. Somehow, he had no trouble finding a job after the Dolphins fired him.

TIER 4: Meh (or I don’t know yet)

22. Matt Patricia, Lions

Patricia’s first year in charge of his own team was not a successful one by any means, but there were signs that he is capable of turning around Detroit’s defense. His game plans for the Patriots and Rams games were as good as any I saw during the 2018 season. Bill Belichick credited the Lions with providing the Patriots a blueprint to use against Sean McVay’s offense in the Super Bowl.

21. Anthony Lynn, Chargers

This is probably disrespectful to Lynn, but I’m just not sure what he does. At least from the outside looking in, Philip Rivers appears to be the one pulling all the right strings for the offense. Lynn is a former offensive coordinator, so I’m not sure how much credit to give him for the defense. And his game management has never been great. If you think Lynn is too low on this list, I won’t argue with that.

20. Jon Gruden, Raiders

Gruden’s first season back in Oakland wasn’t very good, but I will give him credit for this: His offense was a lot more creative than I expected it to be. There’s nothing wrong with the Raiders’ playbook. It’s the personnel decisions — and Gruden’s influence over them — that worry me.

19. Jason Garrett, Cowboys

The Cowboys offense has been limited by an outdated and uncreative scheme, and that falls squarely on Garrett. With all of the talent on the Cowboys roster, Dallas should be contending for a playoff bye every season. Instead, the Cowboys have typically had to scratch and claw for a playoff spot.

18. Dan Quinn, Falcons

What would we think of Quinn as a coach if the Falcons offense was merely good? The former Seahawks defensive coordinator would probably be best back in his previous role. To be fair, Atlanta’s defensive struggles in 2018 had a lot to do with the team’s complete lack of injury luck.

17. Ron Rivera, Panthers

Rivera has won a lot of football games, but having franchise-carrying talents like Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly at his disposal has helped. A lot. The Panthers offensive and defensive schemes have never been overly impressive, and it appears that the success of Carolina’s defense during the team’s 15-1 season had a lot more to do with then-defensive coordinator Sean McDermott.

16. Jay Gruden, Redskins

I have no doubt in my mind that Gruden is an underrated offensive mind, but that doesn’t necessarily make him a good coach. We’d have a better idea of his coaching ability if the Redskins could ever stay healthy.

15. Bill O’Brien, Texans

I don’t know if I’m too high or too low on Bill O’Brien, but “middle of the pack” feels right for a coach who has made the playoffs with Brian Hoyer but hasn’t really won anything despite always having good talent to work with.

TIER 3: Definitely good coaches

14. Sean McDermott, Bills

Sean McDermott should have gotten a few Coach of the Year votes for the job he did in 2018. Remember: The Bills were getting some 0-16 talk before the season. McDermott had to pick his starting QB from this group: Nathan Peterman, A.J. McCarron and Josh Allen, who had no business starting his rookie season. Somehow, Buffalo’s receiving group was even worse. The offensive line was a mess. But McDermott’s defense was good enough to carry the Bills to six wins. McDermott can coach.

13. Matt Nagy, Bears

The Bears defense carried the team to the playoffs but that doesn’t mean the offense wasn’t well-designed. Nagy brought a shrewdly designed scheme to Chicago, which helped make Mitchell Trubisky look a lot better than he was. With a better QB — maybe Trubisky will develop into one in 2019 — Chicago’s offense would be among the best in the league.

12. Frank Reich, Colts

It’s possible that I’m anointing Reich too quickly, but his debut season with the Colts could not have gone any better. He finally put Andrew Luck in a modern offense and figured out how to protect him. He also made tough but analytically-sound choices en route to getting Indy back to the postseason. And his former team, the Eagles, struggled in the areas that Reich oversaw during their Super Bowl campaign. Josh McDaniels spurning the Colts may have been for the best.

11. Kyle Shanahan, 49ers

Among active NFL head coaches, only Pat Shurmur has a worse career winning percentage than Kyle Shanahan. That’s hard to reconcile, but no coach is winning with Brian Hoyer, C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens behind center. Especially not with one of the league’s worst defenses. Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in the league. Give him a solid defense and a quarterback to match — his record with Jimmy Garoppolo is very good — and Shanahan will produce. His poor record is the result of poor front office management, not coaching.

10. Bruce Arians, Buccaneers

Arians has exactly one playoff win on his resume, which does not concern me one bit. Whether intentionally or not, his play-calling is analytically sound, which is rare for a coach who is considered old school. Players seem to love to play with him, and the Cardinals went from a competitive team to the worst in the league right after he left Arizona. This doesn’t really have anything to do with his coaching ability, but Arians has done more to promote diversity in the coaching world than any coach in NFL history.

9. Mike Tomlin, Steelers

There is a certain part of the football world that underrates Tomlin, but even if his defenders will admit that the Steelers have underachieved under his watch. Pittsburgh has only won three playoff games since 2010. Three! With all of the talent they have on the roster. Managing that locker has certainly been difficult — and his best players haven’t always been available for big games — but a better coach (of which there aren’t many) would have come a lot closer to winning a Super Bowl than Tomlin has over the last five years.

8. John Harbaugh, Ravens

Have we gotten to the point where Harbaugh is a little under-appreciated? I think so, and I could very well be under-appreciating him by ranking him at No. 8. He’s been stuck with OK quarterback play throughout his tenure as Ravens head coach and the team is always in playoff contention. We don’t talk nearly enough about the fact that Harbaugh won a Super Bowl with Joe Flacco and a good-but-not-great defense.

TIER 2: Winning wherever they go

7. Mike Zimmer, Vikings

I’ve been stanning for Zimmer ever since the Vikings hired him, and even I can admit that he really needs to put together two good seasons in a row before we can officially elevate him into the elite discussion. His outdated view on offense is a pet peeve, but I don’t know if I’d trust anyone not named Belichick more than Zimmer to put together a defensive game plan for a must-win game. Putting him ahead of coaches who won or been in Super Bowls is tough, but these rankings are about my confidence in these coaches going forward; not what they’ve done in the past.

6. Doug Pederson, Eagles

Pederson is straddling the line between the truly elite coaches and the merely good ones. I think 2019 is the make or break year for him in regard to that discussion. On one hand, the Eagles early season struggles — along with the success Frank Reich had in Indianapolis — raised some questions about his former assistants’ role in designing the 2017 offense. But the turnaround late in the season, after the team lost Carson Wentz, and the playoff win in Chicago showed that Pederson doesn’t need a star-studded staff to coach his team to big wins. I just want to see it for one more complete season before I’m ready to put him in my top-5 — though I wouldn’t take issue with anyone who already has them in theirs.

5. Pete Carroll, Seahawks

Everyone was ready to leave the Seahawks for dead after the mass exodus of veterans last offseason but Seattle was right back in the postseason in 2019 thanks, in large part, to Carroll’s defense. The rest of the credit goes to Russell Wilson’s brilliance. If Carroll was more willing to let Wilson do his thing, and less gung-ho about #EstablishingTheRun, he’d be a bit higher on this list.

4. Sean McVay, Rams

Sure, the Rams laying an egg in Super Bowl 53 is a bit concerning, but it doesn’t overshadow everything McVay has accomplished so far. He’s turned Jared Goff into a quarterback that people think is worth $30 million a year, which might be his biggest accomplishment yet. And if getting out-coached by the GOAT is the biggest stain on your resume, it’s a damn good resume.

TIER 1: Hall of Famers

3. Sean Payton, Saints

I know Drew Brees is a quarterbacking god who makes all of the players around him better, but when he’s throwing wide open touchdowns to guys named Dan Arnold, Austin Carr and Keith Kirkwood — all of those people are real — the coach designing the plays deserves more than his fair share of credit. Along the same lines, Alvin Kamara is special — I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen him get tackled — but 95% of the coaches in the league would not get what Payton has gotten out of him.

2. Andy Reid, Chiefs

I had a hard time separating Reid from Payton but the fact that the former has had so much success without a Hall of Fame quarterback (sorry, Donovan) made the difference for me. I have no doubt that Payton would be successful with a lesser quarterback, but Reid has done it. He’s adapted his offense to quarterbacks with varying skill sets and has his team in playoff position every season. Game management is obviously an issue, but how many coaches are actually good with those decisions? It’s a short list.

1. Bill Belichick, Patriots

The 2018 season may have been Belichick’s most impressive to date. His game plans for the Chiefs and Rams offenses belong in the Hall of Fame, and required every bit of Belichick’s vast football knowledge and strategic creativity. Tom Brady wasn’t at his best last season, and it didn’t matter. If it wasn’t obvious before New England’s run to a sixth Super Bowl win, it should be now: Belichick isn’t just the greatest coach in NFL history, he’s the greatest coach in the history of sports.