Sen. John McCain is back in D.C. after his cancer diagnosis. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo null Inside the GOP mindset on health care ahead of today's votes

BREAKING LAST NIGHT: SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-ARIZ.) is coming back to “continue working on important legislation, including health care reform, the National Defense Authorization Act, and new sanctions on Russia, Iran and North Korea.”

THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW is whether 51 Republicans will vote for the motion to proceed -- a procedural question that allows the Senate to debate the health care bill.


TRUMP THIS MORNING -- @realDonaldTrump at 6:27 a.m.: "Big day for HealthCare. After 7 years of talking, we will soon see whether or not Republicans are willing to step up to the plate!" ... at 6:38 a.m.: "ObamaCare is torturing the American People.The Democrats have fooled the people long enough. Repeal or Repeal & Replace! I have pen in hand."

BURGESS EVERETT, SEUNG MIN KIM and JEN HABERKORN: “McConnell spent the day cajoling his members and meeting with Vice President Mike Pence to plot strategy. The majority leader was still short of the votes to even open debate, and Republicans still don't know what they’d be voting to allow debate on if they agree to go along with McConnell on the procedural vote.

“If [McConnell] manages to round up the 50 votes, it would be a huge political victory. The office of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) announced late Monday that he would return to the Senate, but the undecided positions of about a half-dozen senators have left McConnell with a tiny margin for error, and no one's quite sure what his end game is.” http://politi.co/2tEuNdj

-- HERE IS A BRAIN DUMP ON THE STATE OF PLAY FROM ONE SENIOR GOP STRATEGIST: “It has been abundantly clear that policy disagreements are not the ultimate barrier to moving forward. They’ve had months to work that out. There is a contingent of GOP senators who refuse to accommodate their concerns in negotiations in the hopes of avoiding a vote altogether. The only way to change that dynamic is to hold a vote that provides the opportunity to put every senator on record as to whether they are willing to debate Obamacare.

“A yes vote brings an open amendment process where every senator will have the opportunity to amend, improve, and ultimately decide whether the final product is worthy of their support. Conversely, if some Republicans are more comfortable dealing President Trump a loss than debating Obamacare, this vote will provide the opportunity to make that clear to their constituents since most have represented otherwise for the past seven years.”

FROM A SENIOR SENATE GOP AIDE: “It’s time to vote; it’s time to get on the bill. We pulled back twice for different reasons but it’s time. In fact it’s past time. Republican Senators know the issue and the solutions. They’ve been discussing it for months. To fail not to get on the bill is not a resolution after four election cycles of promises. If we get on the bill, amendments can and will be offered. But that cannot happen unless we get on the bill.”

WSJ EDITORIAL: “Can Republicans Govern? Some Senators want to talk forever about health care. Time for a vote”: “Mitch McConnell is scheduling another showdown vote in the Senate—the third attempt—as early as Tuesday on a motion to proceed to debate on health reform. Succeed or fail, the Republican Majority Leader is right to demand this moment of political accountability. … Members have been debating among themselves for weeks, they know or should know the bill’s essential policy choices, and the bill isn’t getting prettier with age. That’s especially true on Medicaid reform and spending, which is the chief gripe of the so-called moderates led by Rob Portman of Ohio. They keep demanding more money. They keep getting it, but it’s never enough.” http://on.wsj.com/2uSR9rj

THE OPEN QUESTIONS …

-- THE UNDECIDEDS, per POLITICO Pro health-care guru Dan Diamond (@ddiamond) and Burgess, SMK and Jen: Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah), Dean Heller (R-Nev.), Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). PROBABLE NOS: Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.).

-- ALSO KEEP IN MIND: The Senate, at this point, doesn’t even know what it’s voting on. The order of amendments has been an open -- and critical -- question. Burgess, SMK and Jen: “Republicans are strongly considering a strategy that would tee up two separate votes -- one on the repeal only and another on the plan the Senate has been working on to repeal and replace Obamacare. If one fails, ‘you set up a vote on the other one,’ said Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.). The theory behind the strategy is that by making that assurance, Republicans could pick up votes to start debate from ardent conservatives as well as waffling moderates.”

-- AND WHAT’S NEXT? If the Senate passes something, does Speaker Paul Ryan keep the House in to try to pass it? Or does he move to go into conference -- the formal negotiating process between the House and Senate that could force the conversation about health care for months. There would be tremendous pressure to do something.

VP MIKE PENCE met with McConnell last night, and his office is touting the outside groups supporting voting for the motion to proceed. The list http://politi.co/2vVrL13