So while the surveys show the most positive results in years, it's possible that they are only positive relative to how negative people were in 2009, 2010 and 2011, and that compared to the 1980s and 1990s, people aren't actually feeling so confident. The same goes for income: More people than at any point since early 2008 say their finances are improving; that raises the index. But given that most incomes have been stagnant for the past decade or more, improvement does not necessarily translate into objectively good.

Still, the shift is noticeable, and even more so when juxtaposed with what business leaders say and the steps they are taking. Executives seem fixated on the logjam in Washington and the uncertainty surrounding the "fiscal cliff" and tax rates next year. A Wall Street Journal study of 40 major companies found that more than half planned drastic cuts to their investment and spending through the end of this year and into next year in response to the potential for higher tax rates. Business leaders have been aggressively lobbying in Washington these past weeks to make clear to the White House and Congress that if there is no resolution of the "fiscal cliff" the consequences for business will be dire. That is leavened somewhat by other reports, such as yesterday's durable goods orders, that indicate more modest contraction. Still, the prevailing sentiment is, as Dupont's chief executive officer, Ellen Kullman, said, "We're pulling back ... and taking a wait-and-see attitude." Others have been stark. Said Brian Moynihan of Bank of America: "Uncertainty continues to hold back the recovery. Simply put, our clients tell us they will not be aggressive in times of uncertainty."

The current business pessimism and consumer optimism is in sharp contrast to the consumer pessimism and business optimism of the past few years. As the overall U.S. economy has struggled and the situation in Europe has been perilous, businesses - especially larger global corporations - have been doing just fine. From 2009 to 2012, the companies of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index generated double-digit profits and even healthier revenue gains based on booming business in China, Brazil and other emerging economies.

Now, however, corporate profits are slowing, revenue growth is more of a struggle and the haze of Washington isn't helping. Having been sanguine about their prospects as the U.S. economy swooned, companies are glum even as economic activity perks up.

Which of these forces will be determinant? First off, consumer sentiment is a notoriously fuzzy gauge of future activity. How people feel in the present rarely correlates precisely with what they spend in the future; the exception has been when consumers stated intentions to buy big-ticket items such as cars. (Possibly, this is because people tend to save in advance. When they say they plan to but a car in the next six months, they have already set their plans in motion,) Still, income levels tend to be a better predictor of what people will spend, along with the value of their homes and the ease of obtaining credit. Given that incomes are stable and slightly growing, homes values are on the rise and credit is easing, it's a good bet that people will spend a bit more and the overall economic picture will brighten.