January 1, 2019

The recent increase in NBA league scoring averages has been a hot topic of discussion for NBA fans, betters, bookmakers and cappers alike. The NBA team scoring average has drastically increased not only from the start of this decade, but even from last season (2017-18) to this season (2018-19).

The 2018-19 team points per game average in the NBA was 110.6 as of February 11th, 2019, as opposed to 106.3 at the same time in 2018. For further clarity, the NBA team points per game average in 2010-11 was only 99.6 – an 11 point margin in just 8 years and a 5 point margin in just one year. By the end of the 2018-2019 season, scoring had increased all the way up to 111.2 points per game

Many believed that the scoring increase in the NBA was due to a greater emphasis by league officials when it comes to calling fouls when a player's "freedom of movement" is obstructed. Last season, NBA teams were called for fouls 19.9 times per game. As of February 18, NBA teams were averaging 21.5 fouls per game. By the end of the season, that number had dropped down to 20.9 fouls per game, an increase of one foul per game.

Fast forward to November 19, 2019, though, and we see that personal foul calls are back up another full foul per game at 21.9 PF calls.

The increase in personal fouls has caused teams to get into the penalty more frequently, which results in additional free throws, and thus, more chances for relatively easy points with the clock stopped.

Another factor that has led to higher scoring in the NBA is the new shot clock reset rule. Per NBA.com, the shot clock will reset to 14 seconds in three scenarios: after an offensive rebound of a missed field goal or free throw that hit the rim; after a loose ball foul is called on the defensive team immediately following a missed field goal or free throw that hit the rim; or after the offensive team gets possession of the ball after it goes out of bounds immediately following a missed field goal or free throw that hit the rim. The NBA’s new implementation of resetting the shot clock to 14 seconds instead of 24 seconds in these scenarios has created more offensive possessions, which has led to more points.

It's no secret that NBA teams have embraced the 3-point shot now more than ever. The NBA league average for team 3-point attempts a game was 31.2 as of February 18, 2018 and only continued to climb throughout the season, finishing at 32 attempts per game. For context, ompare that number to 29.0 in the 2018-2018 season and then to the 33.4 attempts per game we're seeing as of November 19, 2019.

Quite the uphill trend from 2010 when the NBA team average for 3 point attempts per game was only 18.0. That’s an additional 14 three-point attempts a game in just 8 years. The days of dominant big men posting up are becoming obsolete (although some teams like Utah, Memphis, and Miami may tend to disagree). In the NBA, it's slowly becoming a requirement that almost everyone on the floor can shoot a three in order to create spacing. This new style of offense has led to a quicker pace. For example, (in 2018-19) the average team pace in the NBA is currently 99.6; in contrast to 2017-18, where the average team pace was just 97.3. This number is significant considering in just 2010 the NBA league average pace was 92.1. Offenses are moving quicker and looking for threes earlier in the shot clock, which has resulted in more points per game.

From this new style of NBA offense, change in shot clock resets, and increased number of foul calls, the Vegas over/under totals have seen the greatest upward adjustment, which has opened the door for NBA cappers to find more value when betting point totals. “Over” total bets at the start of the 2018-19 NBA season were hitting at a 69% mark, which forced bookmakers to adjust. However, this potential over-correction by bookmakers may leave value for NBA cappers who can analyze when to play the under. As the season progresses, we expect the scoring numbers to level down to a degree, since attrition and the wear and tear of a season generally results in lower team scoring numbers. With that said, this new style of basketball has given NBA cappers the ability to analyze new data sets in order to find value where Vegas over or under corrects based on the new style of play in the NBA, where point totals appear to be on an upward trend.

What really matters most though, is how much the oddsmakers have adjusted for the faster-paced, higher-scoring NBA. As of November 19, 2019, "Overs" have been a losing bet, hitting at a rate of just 47.69%.

Inherently, betting an over is more likely to be unprofitable in the long run because the public will almost always be on the side of the over. The bookmakers are obviously aware of this and can afford to shade point totals up a point or two knowing they will still get even action on both sides. Fading the public will always be profitable long term, and sweating out an under for three hours is no one's idea of a good time. If only it were as simple as placing bets on the over and sitting back and enjoying every drained bucket.

Despite "Unders" being more profitable long-term, there are still ways to get after the "Over" and cash your tickets more often than not. On a team-by-team basis, the Washington Wizards may be the best bet to go over the total on any given night. The Wizards had an "Over" record of 49-32-1 in 2018-2019, hitting at a league-best rate of 60.5%. In 2019-2020 the Wizards are the #6 team in "Over" percentage, hitting at a rate of 60%. Washington also has a league-best net total of +10.7 points in their first 11 games.

﻿Updated November 19, 2019.

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