Back in 2011, congressional Republicans brought the country to the brink of default when they refused to raise the debt ceiling unless their Democratic colleagues agreed to a series of future spending cuts. Thanks to the G.O.P.’s willingness to weaponize the nation’s debts—the payment of which has traditionally been a nonpartisan issue—financial markets experienced their scariest week since the 2008 financial crisis. A similar situation arose again in 2013, when the U.S. hit its $16.394 trillion debt-ceiling limit.

Now, with a Republican president in office, things are obviously different. “The government is not going to default,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said last week, telling reporters that “of course” the limit will be increased. “I don’t see a showdown,” Representative Mark Meadows, chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, told Bloomberg. “I think that all us believe that a debt ceiling increase with the appropriate amount of real balanced-budget directives is accomplishable under this president and a unified government.”

But while newly-minted Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sent a letter to Congress last Wednesday asking lawmakers to raise the debt limit “at the first opportunity,” not everyone in the Trump administration sees eye to eye on the issue. As Bloomberg notes, Trump’s budget director, Mick Mulvaney, “repeatedly said during his time in Congress that the debt ceiling should be raised only in exchange for big spending cuts.” Trump himself lambasted Barack Obama in 2013 for wanting increase the limit, angrily writing:

Of course, now that he’s president, there’s no reason to believe Trump won’t do the exact things for which he criticized Obama from the comfort of Trump Tower. Particularly since he has a lot of things on his agenda that require spending a lot of money, like his grand infrastructure plan, an increase in military spending, and his “great, great” wall.

Some Republicans seem to think that holding the key to the nation’s pursestrings means they’re in a good place to demand concessions from Democrats. “The good news is that you see all this leverage that is up for grabs,” Representative David Brat told Bloomberg. “You’ve got the debt ceiling, you’ve got an infrastructure plan, you’ve got the tax plan and the Obamacare plan. So I think that debt ceiling piece will be tied to—and in my view it has to be tied to—tax reform being in stone.”

But Democrats say they’re the ones with leverage, as the minority party. And, borrowing their arguments from Republicans just a few short years ago, they point out that it would be Trump and Republican leadership, not Democrats, who would feel the heat if the United States gets close to hitting the debt ceiling again. “If Republicans insist on inserting poison pill riders such as defunding Planned Parenthood, building a border wall, or starting a deportation force, they will be shutting down the government and delivering a severe blow to our economy," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement Monday. So far, the markets seem to suggest that Wall Street thinks they’ll blink.