Riders waiting for the #54 and other buses, on Pratt Street in Downtown Baltimore.

If you ride the bus in Baltimore, you know that sometimes they simply don’t show up.

Here’s one reason: cut runs.

A bus run is basically a block of service on a route, usually between 2–6 hours. Think of a “run” as part of a bus operator’s shift.

From mid-June to mid-November 2017, more than 2,000 bus runs were cut from service, mostly because of “lack of manpower” a.k.a., operator absenteeism.

Only six runs were cut due to lack of equipment.

The bus runs most often cut were on the LocalLink #54, #53, #22, #21, and #30 routes.

The #54 was cut 141 times.

The #53 was cut 118 times

The #22 was cut 101 times

The #21 was cut 64 times

The #30 was cut 53 times

I had heard many Baltimore-area bus riders complain about no-show buses over the last six months, and MTA staff would often cite cut runs as one explanation.

I was curious how often these cuts occur (MTA doesn’t publish the data), so I filed a Public Information Act request with the agency in November.

Last month, I received a list of all runs cut since BaltimoreLink debuted on June 18: these are runs that were cut before service began, at the division level, from June 18 - November 25.

You can look at the spreadsheets here, where the cuts are organized by route, bus division, and hours of service cut.

(The Central Maryland Transportation Alliance provided some help with data analysis for this post.)

Cut Runs = No-Shows = Longer Waits

Bus riders waiting for the CityLink Gold on North Avenue.

Cut runs are not just numbers on a spread sheet.

For riders, cuts translate into extra time (sometimes hours) spent at bus stops, being late for work or for school, missing appointments, and missing connections to other modes.

Cuts also lead to increased frustration with the MTA and disillusionment with our public transit system.

Below, Baltimore bus riders comment on their experiences waiting for no-show LocalLink #21 and LocalLink #54.

The spread sheet below shows corresponding cut runs for the same routes, dates, and times.

Cut runs for the LocalLink #21 on October 13 and 23 and November 14.

“The #21 scheduled for 7:21am at East and Eastern was a no show. The 7:54am did show and is now filling with people late for school and work. This bus only runs roughly each hour, so this complete miss really causes problems for many. Any reason for this no show bus?” — October 13 “MTA can you please get your act together on Fridays?!!! This is the third Friday in a row on which I’ve waited over an hour for the bus (on different routes, too). This morning, at the Woodberry stop, three scheduled #21 buses in a row didn’t come (the man waiting next to me had been waiting since 7:10 am by the time I gave up and got a different ride at 8:30). We can’t afford to be this late to work! ”— October 13 “Early #21 westbound did not show today. It normally gets to East and Eastern 7:27am. Caught the next bus., another posted about a no show #21 on — October 23. Three (3) times in two (2) weeks, the #21 westbound has not shown. It typically gets to East and Eastern about 7:20am. The next bus then picks up all the late students and workers. — October 26 “The #21 just didn’t show up at stop 10494 on Union Ave. Second day in a row. Guess the driver didn’t show up and the MTA didn’t feel like covering this route. I assume this means the rest of the route also isn’t covered until the next scheduled trip … assuming that driver shows up. Maybe don’t bother waiting outside in the cold right now for the next #21 (as of now, 7:40am).” — November 14

The LocalLink 54 was cut five times on October 30.

“How many NB 54’s should there be between 5:40 and 6:30? Probably more than one. And that bus was too jammed to even think about getting into.” — October 30, 2017

Cut Run Facts

CityLink Navy (in Baltimore Oriole wrapper) on Eastern Avenue in Greektown this summer.

— Of the more than 2,000 cuts, 63 were school cuts: school “trippers” cut because school was not in session (Aug. 29–31, Oct 19–20, Nov. 6, and Nov. 24.)

— The shortest block of service cut was less than one hour. The longest was 7 hours and 58 minutes.

— The LocalLinks that were cut most frequently — #54, #22, and #30 — are also part of MTA’s heavily promoted Frequent Transit Network, providing service about every 15 minutes during the peak and midday service hours.

— The #53, which was cut 118 times, provides partial high-frequency service.

— All CityLink high-frequency routes had some of their runs cut, but the CityLink Red has the most (93 times), followed by CityLink Pink (78 times), CityLink Navy (74 times), and CityLink Green (71 times).

— Three hundred total runs were cut in August, but by September, when school returned to session, that number was 496. In October, that number was 469.

BaltimoreLink promotional sign in a downtown bus shelter.

MTA Weighs In

Kevin Quinn, MTA administrator, said these cuts represent about 1.2 percent of scheduled service and that the agency is actively working on reducing operator absenteeism, which averages about 20% each day. Quinn hopes to reduce it to ten percent.

One way is by giving drivers more opportunities to pull in and out of their MTA divisions and do less street relief, which is easier on the drivers.

Another is by improving the locations of shift change points, which he says will make for a more “synched” system.

Quinn added that MTA is in the process of a “complete review of [its] FMLA, Worker’s Compensation, and Sick Leave programs.”

When asked why higher-frequency routes — which MDOT and MTA promote the most — suffered the most frequent cuts, Quinn said, “It is our intent to never cut service, but if it has to be done, higher-frequency routes are typically selected as they have the highest level of service.”

“If a block is cut on a route that operates every 30 minutes, that in turn will cause patrons to wait an hour for a bus, whereas if service is cut on a frequent network route, a bus that comes every ten minutes will then arrive every 20 minutes, which is not as impactful to our riders.”

Quinn makes a good point.

But if the run cuts disproportionally impact high-frequency service, riders who might be attracted to high-frequency for ease of transfer will have longer waits and be riding more crowded buses.

In theory, individual impacts might be smaller, but in the long run, this could result in reduced ridership. Studies have shown that frequency and ridership are connected.

To put it simply, you can only trim high-frequency service so much before it ceases to be high-frequency at all.

As it stands, the LocalLink #26 and #30 are already proposed for permanent service cuts beginning February 4.

For both routes, mid-day service (from about 9 a.m. — 4 p.m.) could be reduced from every 15 minutes to every half hour, which would take them out of the MTA’s Frequent Transit Network.

CityLink Silver on Light Street in downtown Baltimore.

No Shows Don’t Count Toward MTA On-time Performance

For me though, the most worrisome aspect about cut runs isn’t just their numbers.

It’s that even though they are essentially blocks of cancelled service, the cuts don’t count toward MTA’s on-time performance metrics.

To put it another way, a late bus counts negatively toward on-time performance if it arrives more than five minutes late (or one minute early). Minus one for MTA.

From the riders’ perspective however, if the 2 p.m. bus shows up at 2:15, that’s annoying and inconvenient, but they still get their ride.

But if the 2 p.m. bus doesn’t show up at all, the rider will be waiting for the next bus, which could arrive anywhere from 15–60 minutes later.

The MTA, however, gets a pass.

Look at the table below at the cut runs for CityLink Red on October 9. Then read the Facebook post below the table and you can see the impact of that lack of service on one rider, who has no recourse but to complain to customer service.

Or give up and walk home.

CityLink Red cut runs on October 9, 2017.