Most national-level Democrats are skeptical of pouring resources into Doug Jones' bid, given the conservative tilt of the state. | Jeronimo Nisa /The Decatur Daily via AP National Democrats eye shot at Alabama upset Attorney Doug Jones sets up a perfect contrast with Republican Moore, Democrats say. But the odds of victory are long.

If Democrats are ever going to have a shot — however remote — at a Senate seat in Alabama, this is it.

At least that’s the immediate reaction within the local party and among some excited national Democrats on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, in the wake of conservative firebrand Roy Moore’s primary victory over Sen. Luther Strange.


Republicans say Democrats are deluding themselves. President Donald Trump won Alabama by 28 points last year and the state hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in over two decades. The Democratic nominee, Doug Jones, has struggled to raise campaign cash.

But Moore provides the perfect contrast with Jones’ resume as a civil rights warrior, and an upset is not out of the question, Democrats argue.

So now, these Jones-backing Democrats are asking, will the cavalry arrive in time?

National Democrats have been monitoring the race from afar, hoping for a Moore win that would energize their base.

Jones has spoken repeatedly with Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez — including as recently as last week, when he joined Alabama Rep. Terri Sewell in Washington for a Congressional Black Caucus Foundation conference. He has been in touch with officials from the party’s Senate campaign wing. Members of the Congressional Black Caucus have been pushing party officials to send him cash and manpower before the December election.

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The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is poised to start polling the state as it weighs whether to invest in the race. Former Vice President Joe Biden is flying in for a Jones rally in Birmingham next week. Operatives aligned with the former U.S. Attorney are expecting a gush of campaign cash in the coming days.

“I just keep coming back to the number 51 percent. The last time Roy Moore was on the ballot against a Democrat, in 2012, he won 51 percent, on the same ballot as Mitt Romney, who carried the state with 60 percent," said Zac McCrary, a Montgomery-based Democratic pollster.

"So we see Moore as much weaker than any other Alabama Republican, [and] it’s obviously a better political climate for Democrats than last time Moore was on the ballot,” he added.

Still, most national-level Democrats are skeptical of pouring resources into Jones' bid, given the conservative tilt of the state. They're still feeling burned by criticism for their involvement in failed special election campaigns in Georgia and Montana this Spring. Senate and House members remain wary of spending political capital on a race so heavily weighted to the Republican, no matter how despicable they find Moore.

To make matters harder, the local party infrastructure is in bad shape — no Democrat has won a statewide seat there in nearly a decade, and three-term senator Howell Heflin left the chamber in 1997. Plus, Jones’ under-manned campaign team just underwent a shakeup, quietly replacing its campaign manager late last month.

And while Democrats expect that an unpopular Trump will be a drag on Republican candidates, a July Gallup survey revealed that his popularity rating is 15 points higher in Alabama than nationwide. That’s made it hard for Jones to raise gobs of online cash by spreading anti-White House invective — something he’s refused to do — like other special election candidates this year.

Polling on the general election has been sparse nearly three months out, but an Emerson College survey released Monday gives the controversial Moore a 52-to-30 percent lead over Jones. Democrats still insist that Jones can peel business-oriented GOP members and moderates away from Moore.

"After years of embarrassing headlines about the top public officials in this state, this race is about the people of Alabama and about choosing a candidate with character and integrity they can be proud of," said Jones in a statement Tuesday night. "I am running so the people of Alabama can be proud of their next senator."

At a time when the country’s politics are defined in large part by a racial divide, a number of Democrats have been pushing their colleagues to jump in on behalf of Jones. The 63-year-old former U.S. attorney prosecuted a pair of Ku Klux Klan members behind the 1963 bombing of 16th Street Baptist Church bombing in Birmingham, which killed four African-American girls.

“There’s a unique opportunity given how extreme ... and divisive the former Supreme Court justice has been. And I think that, to me, is exactly the opposite of what the people of the country are looking for,” said Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, who rallied with Jones in Birmingham in August.

A handful of African-American lawmakers in Washington have led the push for party leaders to get behind Jones, who was endorsed early by civil rights hero Rep. John Lewis of Georgia. House Assistant Democratic Leader Jim Clyburn of South Carolina and Congressional Black Caucus Chairman Cedric Richmond of Louisiana recorded robocalls on Jones' behalf during the primary, as did his longtime friend Biden. DNC Associate Chairman Jaime Harrison also traveled to Birmingham early this month to back him.

But no senator has rallied with him, and the DSCC has yet to send him a large check or staff. (Its chairman, Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen, did transfer him $5,000 from his own leadership PAC, according to Federal Election Commission records.)

Asked whether the party would commit to spending money in the race, Van Hollen said he'd take his cues from the Jones campaign rather than dictate the race from Washington.

"We're looking at all our options. We have a really good candidate," Van Hollen said in an interview. "We think the people of Alabama want a senator they can be proud of ... and that's Doug Jones and certainly not Roy Moore."

And while the DSCC and DNC have circulated a handful of fundraising emails for Jones, his campaign is still a small operation that’s been sitting back the GOP runoff unfolded, counting on the bruising contest to significantly weaken his eventual opponent.

Jones had less than $100,000 in his campaign account by the end of July, according to the last available federal filing. But as more Democrats have turned their attention to the race in recent weeks, his fortunes have improved: he brought in roughly $100,000 more from small online donations last month alone, according to ActBlue data. Now, Jones advocates are betting on a surge of new cash coming from interested Democrats around the country after Moore’s win.

Still, many admit their best-case scenario may be an under-the-radar race that takes Moore by surprise despite Trump's interest in the race. That could look similar to some other recent Democratic victories in the South, like the South Carolina special Congressional election in June that saw candidate Archie Parnell lose by just 3 points, or the 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial race in which the Democrat beat a scandal-plagued Republican Sen. David Vitter.

“In Lousiana, for Jon Bel Edwards to be elected governor, he needed several things to break the right way to be elected, and it happened. And we’re starting to see that,” said McCrary. “I’m optimistic that some of the national institutions will get involved if these breaks keep going the right way."

Burgess Everett contributed to this report.