Liberals Losing Ground to Leaderless Conservatives

Trudeau’s net favourable score now only +1

Toronto, March 9th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ amongst 1,340 Canadian voters, the gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives amongst decided and leaning voters has shrunk to just four points.

The Liberals (39%) and the Conservatives (35%) are both down since January, three percentage points, and one percentage point respectively (January 22nd: 42% / 36%).

The NDP (15%) and BQ (7%) have made the biggest gains this month, each rising three percentage points (January 22nd: 12% / 4%).

The Green Party (4%) saw its support decline one point (January 22nd: 5%).

The Liberals (42%) have widened their lead in BC, now topping the Conservatives (31%) by 11.

In the Atlantic region, the Liberals (59%) have seen a considerable decrease in support, losing 7 points (January 22nd: 66%), which contrasts a Conservative (30%) rise in the Maritimes of nine points (January 22nd: 21%).

In Québec, both the Liberals (38%) and Conservatives (17%) are down since January (January 22nd: 42% / 21%). Their loss accounts for a 10% gain for the BQ, which sees its support rise to (27%) (January 22nd: 17%).

In Ontario, the Liberals (42%) and Conservatives (39%) are down since January (January 22nd: 42% / 39%), with the NDP (16%) the main beneficiary of this decline, rising six points (January 22nd: 10%).

In the prairies, the Conservatives (42%) have seen their support dip slightly (January 22nd: 42%) as have the Liberals (29%) (January 22nd: 34%). Once again the NDP (25%) is the prime beneficiary of these declines, rising 7 points (January 22nd: 18%).

Despite falling support, Liberals maintain majority

If an election were held today, the Liberals would win 174 seats, the Conservatives 120, the BQ 23, the NDP 20, and 1 for the Green.

The biggest change since we last examined the Federal landscape is an increase of 19 seats for the BQ, and 5 for the NDP. The Liberals lose 13 seats, the Conservatives are down 11 with the Green Party unchanged. (January 22nd: Liberals 187, Conservatives 135, NDP 15, BQ 4, Green 1)

Trudeau net favourable down, Mulcair up, Ambrose unchanged

Justin Trudeau’s net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) now rests at +1, down five points (January 22nd: +6). His approval rating rests at (45%). He remains popular with those aged 34 and under (49%) and females (51%). While Trudeau is still popular with the majority in the Maritimes (57%), his approval in the Atlantic provinces is down sixteen points (January 22nd: 73%).

Rona Ambrose’s net favourable score is now higher than that of Trudeau at +5, with a (31%) approval for the Interim Conservative Leader.

Tom Mulcair has seen both his favourable score (+5) and his approval rating rise (34%). The increase in his favourable score is +8 (January 22nd: -3).

Trudeau is still the choice of almost 4-in-10 for best PM

Trudeau is still seen by the plurality of voters as the best choice for PM (37%). For the third month in a row, none of these (19%) is the choice of the second most respondents.

“Right now, both opposition parties have no permanent leader, so Justin Trudeau should be able to navigate past his opponents to drive his message, but it isn’t resonating. Of particular concern to Liberal partisans should be his precipitous drop of approval in Atlantic Canada, which has been a region of strength for the Liberals in the last few elections,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.