Why didn't teams see Jeremy Lin's potential? NBA

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Linsanity blindsided Kobe Bryant, so much that the future Hall of Famer took weeks to properly word his frustration.

His target? The front-office talent evaluators who failed to draft Jeremy Lin, cut him from two NBA teams and sent him to the Development League four times.

"They would all be fired if I was owning a team," he said before an All-Star Game practice session in February. "I hear this stuff about how he came out of nowhere, and I think it's a load of crap. You can't play that well and just come out of nowhere. There has to be something there, and everybody missed it."

Linsanity is long dead now, with Lin sidelined by a meniscus tear. How the saga might change scouting, however, is a discussion that continues.

Back in May 2010, a FedEx delivery driver named Ed Weiland wrote up a sunny projection of Lin on HoopsAnalyst.com. Citing two-point field-goal percentage and RSB40 (combined rebounds, steals and blocks per 40 minutes), Weiland argued that Lin might have been the No. 2 point guard in that year's draft behind top pick John Wall.

This type of analysis echoes the sabermetrics that helped spawn "Moneyball" in Major League Baseball, but the NBA has not been gripped by a similar revolution. Even those who espouse advanced statistics, such as the Houston Rockets, aren't infallible - the team had Lin for less than two weeks of December preseason play before waiving him.

The problem is not exposure; players draw attention as early as middle school. The problem is assessing potential.

FILE - In this March 7, 2012 file photo, New York Knicks' Jeremy Lin, left, shoots over San Antonio Spurs' Tim Duncan during the first half of an NBA basketball game, in San Antonio. Emerging NBA star Jeremy Lin has signed a two-year contract with automaker Volvo to promote the company's cars around the world but especially in Asia. The Chinese-owned company said in statement Tuesday, March 20, that Lin will participate in Volvo's worldwide corporate and marketing activities as a brand ambassador. The contract will focus on China, the United States and other Chinese-language markets in Asia. (AP Photo/Darren Abate, File) less FILE - In this March 7, 2012 file photo, New York Knicks' Jeremy Lin, left, shoots over San Antonio Spurs' Tim Duncan during the first half of an NBA basketball game, in San Antonio. Emerging NBA star Jeremy ... more Photo: Darren Abate, Associated Press Photo: Darren Abate, Associated Press Image 1 of / 1 Caption Close Why didn't teams see Jeremy Lin's potential? 1 / 1 Back to Gallery

"There were people who evaluated him. They just didn't think he would be this good," says ESPN analyst Jay Bilas, who adds that he had ranked Lin in the 60s or 70s - a player he thought could make an NBA roster.

Why Warriors let Lin go

NBA scouts concur. "All these games are on TV now. All the D-League games are in the media archives," one said. "There's really no excuse not to see players or to understand who a player is. (But) you may not be able to project, to look into the crystal ball like, 'Jeremy Lin, I foresee this.' "

The Warriors say they released Lin in order to free up payroll and a roster spot for their frontcourt. With Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis in the backcourt - as well as lottery pick Klay Thompson - they didn't see a need for more guards.

"If you say I was stupid to let him go, I have to stand up to that, but our need (for a big man) is still the same," general manager Larry Riley said. "There's going to be a huge reluctance to let somebody go now, if you think he has any value at all."

Riley hints at a greater problem. When teams hand out 10-day contracts - the sort Lin was serving immediately before his rise - they are generally guided by need. The Warriors, having lost big men Ekpe Udoh (trade) and Kwame Brown (injury), recently tried out Mickell Gladness and Keith Benson in the equivalent of NBA purgatory. Each is listed at 6-foot-11.

If gems such as Lin are to be found, the search for long-term talent might need to trump the desire to fill immediate holes.

Even so, Bryant's tirade might have been a little harsh.

Lin needed a rare confluence of events to emerge. Last summer, he shored up his three-point shot, bulked up and added 3 1/2 inches to his vertical leap. A lockout-compacted season made it difficult for teams to scout him. Then-head coach Mike D'Antoni's loose reins gave him confidence.

Houston GM Daryl Morey might regret letting Lin go, but he also recognized that the guard would not have had the same success off his team's bench, tweeting: "@JLin7 is a very good player but Linsanity was not happening here this year."

Still, Lin's case might not spark sweeping change in how the league evaluates talent.

No straightforward fix

In the five drafts before 1999, only one international player without American college experience - Dirk Nowitzki - was taken with a lottery pick.

In 1999, the San Antonio Spurs drafted Argentina's Manu Ginobili 57th overall, the second-to-last pick. Two years later, they plucked Tony Parker out of France with the 27th pick. Both became All-Stars and won three championship rings.

In the five drafts after 2001, teams spent a total of 11 lottery picks on overseas talent.

The Jeremy Lin story, on the other hand, does not lend itself to any sort of straightforward fix. Neither the Ivy League nor the Asian American community is a burgeoning, untapped resource. Players such as Penn senior Zack Rosen might draw a few more scouts to their workouts, but the country's academic powerhouses aren't turning into John Calipari-style pro farms anytime soon.

Agents play key role

Big-time prospects also stand in the way of underdog stories like Lin's. First-round picks not only receive guaranteed contracts - pressuring teams to see early returns on their investment - but also often are attached to powerful agents. Sixteen years ago, Arn Tellem bluffed the New Jersey Nets into passing on a 17-year-old named Kobe Bryant, helping Los Angeles land him.

It's a simple formula: If their clients succeed, agents tend to get more clients and more money.

"They get a client signed, they want that guy playing as many minutes as possible," a Western Conference scout said. "It's hard for those guys that are drafted in the second round or whatever the case may be to work their way in.

"Eventually, though, those guys that are good are gonna work their way to the top. The cream rises to the top."