Go inside the numbers and matchups that will decide Saturday night's showdown between the Chicago Cubs and the Cleveland Indians in Game 4 of the World Series, and then vote for which team will win at the bottom of the page. The Indians lead the series 2-1.

How we got here

The first 1-0 World Series game since 2005 was a tense affair that came down to Cody Allen striking out Javier Baez on a high, 2-2 fastball with the winning run in scoring position. The Indians became the first team with five shutouts in one postseason (and the Cubs became the second team to be blanked four times). The Cubs went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position and the Indians went 1-for-5 -- Coco Crisp dropping a little flair into right field in the seventh for the game's only run. -- David Schoenfield

Inside the pitching matchup

Tale of the tape: World Series Game 4 starters Corey Kluber 2016 stats John Lackey 3.14 ERA 3.35 1.06 WHIP 1.06 .216 Opp BA .218 3.98 K/BB 3.40 6.5 WAR 2.5

When Corey Kluber is on the mound: Kluber is making his fifth postseason start and second on three days' rest. He has given up two runs in 24⅓ innings, surrendered only one home run, held batters to a .193 average and struck out 30 percent of the batters he has faced. In other words, he's going for a Madison Bumgarner-type run here.

In Game 1, Kluber had pinpoint command of his two-seam fastball, getting it to run on the inside corner to left-handed batters. Case in point: He got Anthony Rizzo, who popped up eight times all season, to pop up three times with inside fastballs. How effective has that fastball been in the playoffs? Let's check the numbers:

Regular season: .274/.350/.483

Postseason: .175/.267/.225

Wow. Kluber is throwing it just as often as he did in the regular season -- 49 percent versus 51 percent -- although with much greater effectiveness. He normally throws that pitch inside 30 percent of the time; the number was 42 percent in Game 1. But he could change plans in Game 4: Against the Blue Jays and Red Sox, he worked the outer half of the plate more often.

Those two-seamers and cutters set up his great breaking ball -- a sweeping curve/slider hybrid that held batters to a .115 average and has been one of the most dominant pitches in the game the past few seasons. The other thing that made him effective in Game 1 was that he often pitched backward -- starting off with an offspeed pitch and then going to the cutter or two-seamer with two strikes. The Cubs' best hope might be that he's not as sharp on three days' rest (the two runs he gave up came on his other short-rest start against the Blue Jays). -- Schoenfield

Corey Kluber and John Lackey will be on the mound for Saturday's crucial Game 4. Getty Images

When John Lackey is on the mound: He's making his 23rd career postseason start but went only four innings in each of his two outings this postseason, giving up 10 hits, five runs and five walks. Unless he's dealing, you have to think Joe Maddon will be looking at another quick hook, especially with the Cubs trailing in the series.

Lackey still has good stuff, even after turning 38 a few days ago, as he recorded a career-high strikeout rate. He comes at batters with a four-seam fastball at 91-92 mph that he moves around the strike zone, plus a slider, curve and occasional changeup. The slider that dives off the outside corner to righties is his go-to wipeout pitch, especially against righties, who hit .122 against it. He doesn't throw it as often to lefties, but they hit just .133 against it. Overall, righties had a .251 OBP compared to .322 against lefties, so Terry Francona might go with Carlos Santana again in left field to get another left-handed bat in there. -- Schoenfield

Player in the spotlight

Kris Bryant has just one hit in 11 at bats through three games in the World Series. Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Kris Bryant. Or pick the Cubs' offensive player of your choice. Dexter Fowler has a .263 OBP in the postseason. Rizzo has a .298 OBP. Addison Russell had those big home runs against the Dodgers but is hitting .167 with one walk and 11 strikeouts. Bryant, however, is the guy who will win the NL MVP award. He has had a solid postseason with a .280/.368/.440 line, but he also has hit only one home run in 13 games. In a postseason that hasn't featured much offense -- teams are hitting a collective .219 -- home runs are vital. The Cubs could use one from their big slugger. -- Schoenfield

Did you know ...

Kluber in Game 1 became the 12th pitcher to throw at least six scoreless innings against the Cubs this season. Of the previous 11, only three faced the Cubs again later in the season (Jimmy Nelson, Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw). They combined to go 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in the start following the scoreless outing. -- Lee Singer, ESPN Stats & Information

What will decide the game Saturday night

The formula for the Indians this postseason has been to get an early lead and bring Andrew Miller in to shut the door. With Miller throwing only 17 pitches in Game 3, he should be available to pitch multiple innings again in Game 4.

The Indians are 8-0 when scoring first this postseason and 1-2 when they don't. The Cubs are 7-1 when scoring first and 1-4 when their opponent does. So an early lead for either team would go a long way toward bringing home a victory in Game 4. -- Singer

The man in blue: Marvin Hudson

Hudson calls strikes slightly less frequently than his peers, but he rates close to average (30th out of 80). The one area in which he favors the pitcher is on pitches that are on the inside corner to a right-handed hitter. He tends to call strikes often there.

However, neither Kluber nor Lackey comes inside often. They both ranked in the bottom 15 among ERA-title qualifiers in terms of frequency of throwing an inside pitch. The area in which Hudson is a less-likely strike caller is at the top of the zone. That could be notable for Indians catcher Roberto Perez, in that Perez's greatest strength is getting the high strike call.

One thing to keep an eye on for Lackey is if he's getting calls at the bottom of the strike zone (all three Cubs catchers are good at that).

With regard to Kluber, remember that his 45 percent called-strike rate in Game 1 was his third-highest in a start this season. Kluber consistently got calls on close pitches from Larry Vanover. The Cubs took nine pitches that are historically called strikes 50 to 75 percent of the time. He got eight called strikes on those nine pitches -- Mark Simon, ESPN Stats & Info

Choosing sides: Who will win?

The Cubs like to trumpet their ability to get better the more they see a pitcher, and they certainly proved they could do it against an ace last round with Kershaw. Kluber was terrific in Game 1, but the Cubs had some quality at-bats and he'll be hard-pressed to paint the corners as effectively. But basically, I just can't see the Cubs losing two in a row at home to fall behind 3-1. Chicago gets even. -- Bradford Doolittle

So now that the World Series is upside down, it only makes sense the Cubs will beat Kluber after losing with their ace on the mound Friday. Having better success against a pitcher they've seen recently has been a trend with them all season, so this time they'll scratch just enough across to beat the Indians and even the series 2-2. -- Jesse Rogers

The Cubs won 103 games this season for a reason, and they have every right to believe Cleveland can't just walk into Wrigley Field and take two straight. But the Indians are now 9-2 in the postseason, and they radiate a sense of belief in themselves. They're about as loose as a team can get under circumstances this intense, and they're never more confident than when Kluber is on the mound. I think Kluber, Miller and Allen get the job done and the Indians win again to put the Cubs in a major hole. -- Jerry Crasnick

Where the series stands

The odds have swung from 61 percent Cubs winning before Game 3 to 59 percent Indians winning entering Game 4 (according to FanGraphs). Miller threw only 17 pitches in Game 3, so he's available for multiple innings if needed (and if Francona can work around having to pinch hit for him). Both managers emptied their benches in Game 3; I'd expect the same thing in Game 4 as these low-scoring games in NL parks turn into chess matches. The Cubs are the heavy favorites in Game 5 with Trevor Bauer slated to face Jon Lester, but they don't want to go back to Cleveland needing two wins. -- Schoenfield