opinion

Scott-Nelson race of vital importance to Florida, country | Our view

Once upon a time, a Rick Scott-Bill Nelson Senate race might have been a slam-dunk — for the Democratic incumbent.

Nelson, who entered the U.S. Senate in 2001, has cruised to big reelection victories in a closely divided “purple” state. He’s a steady hand at the wheel as a low-key, moderate legislator who’s managed to sidestep many of Washington’s most controversial political spats.

Scott, by contrast, seemed a doctrinaire conservative for much of his political career. The business executive rode the Tea Party wave into the governor’s mansion in 2010, and throughout much of his tenure he did little to disappoint the faithful. He was staunchly pro-gun; he never met a tax cut he didn’t like; he slashed spending even when doing so was arguably unwise.

While those positions may have thrilled his partisans, Scott never convinced more than 49 percent of Floridians to vote for him in either of his successful gubernatorial runs.

But in recent months Scott has appeared to moderate considerably. And it makes him into a formidable candidate in what is shaping up as a clash of the titans, a race which will surely be one the hottest and most closely watched in the nation.

MORE: Five big questions about a Scott Senate run

Without endorsing either candidate — we may choose to do so at a later date — we hope, at least, this race will be good for Florida, in that the scrutiny and neck-and-neck nature of the contest will force Scott and Nelson to address issues that matter most to voters, highlighting the many challenges facing the Sunshine State.

The polls, so far, are close; each candidate has his party’s base firmly in his camp. Nelson has the name recognition and track record. Scott, by contrast, would seem to have a large albatross in the form of President Donald Trump hanging from his neck.

But there’s far more to this than initially meets the eye.

Scott has attempted to use Nelson’s time in the Senate to his advantage, arguing that the incumbent has accomplished remarkably little during his tenure.

And while Trump could be a factor in the race, it’s worth remembering Trump polls better in Florida than in much of the rest of the country. Scott will surely take steps to distance himself from the president — though not by too much.

Scott has his weaknesses. The environment is arguably Florida’s most important political issue, but Scott has never been seen as an ally. Treasure Coast residents will recall he declined to even visit the region during the toxic algae crisis of 2016.

And his deep cuts to public education and his decision to sign controversial education bills in recent years infuriated parents and activists.

Scott will benefit from his ability to run on his record as Florida governor, while simultaneously claiming to be a political outsider keen on changing hidebound Washington. He will point to his record on job creation yet insist that despite eight years at Florida’s helm, he’s no career politician.

Two other recent developments may work in his favor.

First, during Hurricane Irma last year, Scott was conspicuous in his leadership. He declared a state of emergency early and urged residents to prepare. As Floridians fled north and gasoline supplies waned, he waived tolls and directed state police to escort fuel trucks to stations along evacuation routes. And he quickly visited the hardest-hit areas to help jump start relief efforts.

Should this hurricane season prove as active as last year’s, the impression made by all of this may fade; but we suspect some of it will linger, as it should.

The second “X” factor is Scott’s recent moderation on guns, in the wake of the Parkland school shooting. Scott had an “A+” rating from the National Rifle Association, but his embrace of new regulations after the shooting angered the NRA as well as many of its dogged partisans.

Scott, who might once have been considered at the far right edge of gun politics, can now claim to be a pragmatic moderate at a time when that stance is likely to resonate with many voters.

None of this is to sell Nelson short. He has long favored greater gun restrictions, has sought to ban offshore drilling and has consistently argued in favor of expanding Medicaid. Given tough federal disclosure laws, Rick Scott’s vast personal wealth will be open to scrutiny like never before, and Nelson’s campaign will surely pounce.

And Nelson will likely miss no opportunity to point out that Scott is buddy-buddy with one of the most unpopular presidents in recent memory.

But given the amount of money that will be poured into this race, and the fact that Nelson has been deemed one of the nation’s most “vulnerable” Democrats, this may well be his greatest challenge.

We’ll be watching closely as the race unfolds and we get a better idea of what it may mean to us — and the nation as a whole.

Editorials of Treasure Coast Newspapers/TCPalm are decided collectively by its Editorial Board. To respond to this editorial in a letter to the editor, email up to 300 words to TCNLetters@TCPalm.com.