China’s government habitually fudges its economic growth data, so if it’s admitting to a 6.8% year-on-year contraction in the first three months of this year we can only guess at how bad the truth is. One thing is certain: The economic fallout from Covid-19 is only beginning for a country that claims to have the outbreak under control.

Official gross-domestic-product data released Friday showed China’s first contraction since it emerged from Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution in 1976. Research firm Capital Economics estimates...