by Atul Hatwal

Last year, in the aftermath of the general election it looked like Westminster had learnt that the economy and leadership are central to determining the public’s voting intention at the big electoral tests.

Now we have an EU referendum looming and there’s been a bout of collective amnesia.

Yes, I know this is not a general election but the same formula of economy and leadership is relevant for largely the same reasons as last year.

Immigration is the issue that many Brexiteers think will tip the balance their way. But just as Ukip found last year, they’re misreading the polls.

There is a very familiar gap between the number who view immigration as the most important issue facing the country and those who view it as important to their household’s well-being.

At the general election, 51% thought immigration was the key issue facing Britain but only 21% believed it mattered most to their lives.

Unsurprisingly, immigration was not a major factor in the contest.

In the last poll to ask the relevant questions, by YouGov, from last September – following a summer of daily coverage of refugees travelling to Europe – the number citing immigration as the most important national issue was the highest on record at 71%. But the number who thought it most important for their family was 24% – a gap of 47%.

Think about that for a moment.

Even after a summer of non-stop reporting of fleeing refugees entering Europe, lurid stories from the Calais “jungle” and hyperbolic headlines, the proportion thinking that immigration mattered most for their lives rose by just 3% from 21% at the election to 24% at the start of September.

In comparison, in the same poll, the number saying the economy was the most important issue for their household was 40%. That’s 16% ahead of immigration.

In every single poll conducted by YouGov in the five and half years that they’ve been asking these questions, this gap has never been less than 16%.

The economy will drive voters’ decision and on this terrain the Remain side have a decisive advantage.

As with the Scottish independence referendum and last year’s general election, the economic risk of change will weigh heavily on voters minds.

Today’s letter from business warning against Brexit is a major moment in validating nascent fears.

The petulant reaction of the Leave camp has mirrored that of Labour’s in last year’s general election when the Tories ran a similar letter.

Simply dismissing the concerns of the businesses that employ millions of people as special pleading is foolish.

The public might not cherish big business leaders as national treasures but they do believe that Britain’s CEOs know more about creating jobs and wealth than politicians.

No matter how sceptical or worried voters are about immigration in the abstract, the majority will look to their economic self-interest first.

There’s been much written about identity, particularly about English voters, and how this will be important in the referendum.

This is relevant but almost always those discussing it fail to understand the identity that matters most to voters.

For most people, before they are English, a Mancunian, a member of a minority, part of whatever, they are a worker, a bill-payer and a provider.

I’m reminded of a presentation Alastair Campbell made to Labour’s minority voters campaign committee in 1996.

I was attending as the press officer covering the area and the question was asked whether we’d have a separate manifesto for minority voters. His response was a firm “No.”

Minority voters had the same core interests as other voters: a sound economy, a decent job, good education for the kids and a working health service.

Alastair Campbell was right then and his words from nearly 20 years ago remain right now.

Economic identity trumps cultural definition and Britain’s electoral reality is that every time the economy is on the ballot, immigration is virtually irrelevant.

This alone would make Remain strong favourites but when leadership is factored into Britons’ decision-making, the prospect of a blowout win becomes more likely.

Voters are going to look at the leading representatives of each cause.

In favour of remaining in the EU, there’s the prime minister. For all of his flaws, the winner of two general elections and the only frontbench politician in either the Conservative or Labour party with positive ratings.

In the opposing corner there’s Nigel Farage, George Galloway and now Boris. Politicians best described as characters. Personalities. Celebrities.

Team Brexit is represented by leaders that can win European elections, by-elections and even a Mayoralty. But people who the British public would not trust within a million miles of a decision that could affect their families’ security.

In the case of the London Mayoralty, paradoxically, it was Tony Blair’s fear of the prospect of Ken Livingstone that led him to fillet the office of economic power before the Greater London Authority was even established, making it the ideal perch for a celebrity populist.

Tony Blair’s desire to limit the chances of Livingstone winning would have been best served by giving the Mayor proper tax-raising power.

Ken would have found that voters have a very different calculus when there are real economic consequences to an election, just as Boris will discover on June 23rd.

Quirky loudmouths with a colourful turn of phrase might be worth a tilt to brighten the political firmament when there is little practical impact, but there’s a reason our top politicians are of a certain type.

They are the ones the public trust to make the most important decisions.

The alignment of voters’ personal economic imperative with the positioning of their most trusted political leaders make this one of the most lopsided contests in years.

It’s why the average lead for staying in the EU in telephone polls this year is 15.8%. A landslide.

Online polls admittedly tell a different story on headline voting intention – a lead for Brexit of 1% – but then they also showed a lead for change at the general election and we all know what happened next (telephone pollsters didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory at the end of that campaign with a near miraculous herding in the same range as online but before this strange shift in the final days, they had shown a consistent lead for the Tories.)

For what its worth, here’s my prediction: Britain will vote to remain in the EU by a massive margin, at least 15 points.

Boris will be utterly irrelevant and damaged goods following a defeat on such a scale.

And immigration will remain the electoral dog that never barks at the elections that matter.

Atul Hatwal is editor of Uncut

Tags: Atul Hatwal, Boris Johnson, David Cameron, economy, elections, EU referendum, leadership