MPs will finally vote on Theresa May’s proposed Brexit deal tonight after almost two years of negotiations, months of parliamentary debates and a five-week delay.

The “meaningful vote” was delayed in December after the prime minister admitted she was on course to lose, prompting another month of frantic wrangling with the EU.

Having secured few new concessions, Ms May is still expected to suffer a crushing defeat in the Commons, with attention likely to turn immediately to what she does next.

Here is how the historic day will play out...

9.30am – The cabinet will hold its regular weekly meeting in Downing Street. It is likely to go on for several hours, with ministers set to once again discuss how they think the government should respond if the deal is voted down. Members of the cabinet have previously expressed frustration that Ms May remains tight-lipped about her “plan B”, and there is no reason to think today’s meeting will be any different.

12.50pm – The fifth and final day of Commons debate on the proposed Brexit deal will begin. It will be opened by Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, who is likely to re-iterate his view that the proposed agreement is the best available. He will seek to reassure Tory MPs by outlining his expert opinion on why a permanent Northern Ireland backstop would be legally difficult for the EU to justify.

6.30pm – Theresa May will close the debate and make a final last-ditch plea to MPs to back her deal. She is likely to again warn that her agreement is the only one on offer, and that voting it down puts Brexit at risk. She will remind MPs that the country is watching and that voters want them to get on with the job of implementing the result of the 2016 referendum. The prime minister is expected to also repeat her rhetoric about there being better times ahead and emphaise her desire to focus on other matters once Brexit is completed.

7.00pm – Voting on the Brexit deal will begin. 14 amendments have been tabled, and it will be for Commons Speaker John Bercow to decide which ones are put to a vote. Each vote takes around 15 minutes, so the timing of the final vote on the deal itself will depend entirely on how many amendments are called. Assuming Mr Bercow opts for between six and eight, we’re expecting the big vote to take place around...

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9.00pm – Give or take a few minutes, this is likely to be when MPs divide in one of the most historic votes in living memory. The result will be announced around 15 minutes later.

9.15pm – Ms May is likely to give a statement immediately after the expected defeat. She will probably announce her intention to return to Brussels and seek further compromises from the EU.