Still, with officials and analysts here worried that North Korea might provoke a deadly skirmish sometime soon, to shake the new government of President Park Geun-hye in the South and to destabilize the region, the South Korean military called a news conference on Wednesday to deliver a categorical public warning.

“If North Korea attempts a provocation that threatens the lives and security of our people, our military will forcefully and decisively strike not only the origin of provocation and its supporting forces but also its command leadership,” said Maj. Gen. Kim Yong-hyun, chief operations officer at the military’s Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “We make it clear that we are all prepared.”

The two Koreas’ front-line units exchanged artillery fire in 2010 after North Korea shelled a South Korean-controlled island; that same year, a South Korean Navy corvette was sunk and 46 sailors were killed by an explosion that the South attributed to a North Korean torpedo attack.

South Korea has since vowed to strike back with a deadlier force if North Korea provokes it again.

Despite such warnings, however, officials worry that the North’s young leader, Kim Jong-un, or ambitious generals under him may be thinking that possessing nuclear weapons will allow them to provoke the South with impunity.

“We read their confidence in nuclear weapons behind their aggressive, more provocative rhetoric and actions recently,” said Chang Yong-seok, an analyst at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University. “There is a higher possibility of North Korea attempting a provocation, something that would involve limited causalities but have all the impact that one expects from an armed provocation.”