Mayor Rob Ford’s election-minded proposal to freeze property taxes in 2014 and 2015 is struggling to win council support, with even some of his allies voicing early skepticism.

But both right- and left-wing councillors say they are concerned about the potential impact on city finances and services.

“We should be setting a tax rate where we at least cover our costs,” said Councillor Paul Ainslie, a member of Ford’s executive committee. “So if the mayor can do it and cover our costs, I’m all for it. If we can’t do that, that’s when I start to have issues with it. Because to me it’s not fiscally prudent.”

The city’s long-term fiscal plan says the tax rate should be increased annually to match inflationary cost increases. Chief financial officer Cam Weldon has repeated the case for rate-of-inflation hikes at budget committee meetings.

But Ford has touted his 2011 tax freeze as one of his key achievements. His proposal now for a two-year freeze could give him powerful ammunition for the 2014 campaign — whether or not council thwarts him.

Councillor David Shiner, a member of the executive who was council’s budget chief under Mel Lastman, is also unenthusiastic about the proposal.

“I’d love to freeze property taxes, but I wouldn’t support a freeze — or I’d have concerns supporting a freeze — if it meant a reduction in the services that citizens of the city of Toronto enjoy,” Shiner said.

Councillor Peter Milczyn, a third member of the executive, said a tax freeze “might be a viable thing to do” if the city continues to see growth in revenue from property assessments, as is expected, and Ford achieves a “truly balanced” 2013 budget that does not rely on the use of reserve funds.

But, he added, “we’re working our way out of having unsustainable budgets. So if we can have a sustainable budget with a 0 per cent tax increase, then that’s fine. If it means going back to the old way of doing things, of using creative accounting and one-time money, then no, it’s not sustainable, and we shouldn’t be doing it.”

Ford did not campaign in 2010 on freezing taxes — Toronto’s tax rate is the lowest in the region — but he successfully passed a freeze for 2011. His 2012 budget included a 2.5-per-cent increase.

A two-year freeze would be somewhat easier to achieve if the inflation rate remains exceptionally low: it was 1.2 per cent in May. But that is far from certain, and some 30,000 unionized employees are due for a 1.75-per-cent salary increase in 2014 and another 2.25- per-cent increase in 2015 under the deals negotiated by Ford’s administration.

Police officers are due a 2-per-cent increase in 2014. Council may also increase the salaries of non-union city staff, which Deputy Mayor Doug Holyday has recommended, and an arbitrator will likely give transit workers a raise as well.

Councillor Shelley Carroll, a former budget chief and a possible mayoral opponent, said Ford should have asked city staff to study the potential impact of a tax freeze rather than “marrying them” to it at the outset. And Ford’s request, she noted, comes after cuts to bus service and other services.

“Setting these hard targets that are below the inflation number is leading to the fraying of services all across the board,” Carroll said.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

“Residents pay us to come here and really weigh the impact, really know what the impact would be on people’s lives. Rob Ford messaging on a number now, and drawing a line in the sand with it, is not city-building. It’s just campaigning.”

Councillor Adam Vaughan, another possible mayoral opponent, said Ford is putting forth the proposal to “set himself up to fail and make himself look like the martyr again” for campaign purposes. He said Ford has “no hope in hell” of getting a freeze through council.