MUMBAI: If anyone’s looking to refill his or her vaults once currency supplies rise with the same amount of cash as that kept in storage in the years before November 8, perish the thought. The Reserve Bank of India and the government just don’t want you to sliding back into old habits.If you want to know the thoughts of RBI on how much cash it wants you to hold, all that you need to do is to look up a June 23 document titled Payment and Settlement Systems in India: Vision-2018.The “commitment of the Reserve Bank of India is to encourage greater use of electronic payments by all sections of society so as to achieve a ‘lesscash’ society.” It goes on to call for “continued decrease in the share of paper-based clearing instruments’’ and “accelerated use of Aadhaar in payment systems”.Bankers, nudged by the regulator, are coming to grips with the reality that the cash that will be available in the system will be much less than what it was before PM Narendra Modi withdrew Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes. In fact, it’s estimated that, of the total Rs 17.6 lakh crore in currency before November 8, only about two-thirds may eventually end up in circulation as notes. ( Demonetisation accounted for about 86% of notes by value.)“If the entire exercise of demonetisation is to bring down the total cash in circulation , the expectation of supply of notes to match the current one is absurd,” said a banker familiar with the regulatory line of thinking. “If people expect the RBI to be generous with cash, they will be proved wrong.”India’s currency economy, at 12% of gross domestic product, has been abnormal by any standards. It not only showcases the scale of corruption, but also tax evasion by all and sundry. Compare this with Malaysia at 8%, the US at 7.8% and Mexico at 6.7%.What could be the new normal? That will be known on the auspicious day RBI Governor Urjit Patel decides to break his silence on the number. It’s being pegged by some at 8.5-9% of GDP to begin with, going down further subsequently.“We estimate that the new currency-to-GDP ratio may settle at 8% of GDP because of the new normal,” said SK Ghosh, chief economist at the State Bank of India. “Interestingly, this could be lower than the US.”From all appearances, the government and RBI were ill-prepared for the entire exercise, but in all probability this may be a deliberate crash course aimed at forcing a rigid cash-based system into digital mode.Why are the self-proclaimed transparent government and the regulator that have access to data and plans not showing their hand? If the State Bank of India could disclose information on how many notes it exchanged and how much it got in deposits on a daily basis, what holds the RBI back from disclosing the aggregate data it gets every day?Instead of trying to appease the masses by saying that there is “enough cash” and they “need not panic,” concrete numbers on how much RBI planned to release in a particular time period could have actually reduced the panic. But if the central bank said it planned to release just half the currency that came in or just two thirds, that may well have aggravated the anxiety.“Eventually, CIC (cash in circulation) will normalise as economic activity reverts to normal,” said Suvodeep Rakshit of Kotak Institutional Equities. “Though from a long-term perspective, the move towards a cashless economy and low and stable inflation will reduce the need for high CIC.’’Whether the scarcity of cash is intentional or not, the RBI vision document clearly defines the aim of its efforts in the overall scheme of things. “Focus on customer is the final key thrust area of Vision-2018.”