Bitcoin Price Analysis: January 17’s New Moon

People are asking whether bitcoin will revisit $10,000 or even $5,000 in a crypto winter before mooning to $25,000 or $50,000. Last month, Ari Paul at Block Tower Capital placed a million dollar futures bet on bitcoin $50,000 by December 2018 just before the 30 percent price drop. He apparently missed the author’s memo from December 20, 2017.

You can practice trading bitcoin futures here.

I agree with Dan Larimer of Steemit that bitcoin futures divert money away from bitcoin itself. The futures markets are a side bet on the price of bitcoin without actually buying and holding any. Some institutional investors are averse to holding bitcoin and feel uneasy about the real security risks of keeping cryptocurrencies. The risk of loss can not be insured.

On December 22 in Bitcoin Buy Risks and Opportunities the author called for a fifth wave of exhaustion to the key $10,000 zone. This did not occur and that is why we are in zig zag, corrective action to this day. The main reason $10,000 has remained out of reach is because of the powerful confluence of 50 percent retracement zones above it on the monthly and weekly charts.

Bitcoin, monthly

Bitcoin, weekly

The bitcoin price is bounded above by the 23 percent and 38 percent Fibonacci retracements on the monthly and weekly charts and bounded below by the 38 percent retracement on the monthly, weekly AND daily charts. These zones are like magnets that attract the price then repel it when it gets too close. You will observe the same price behaviour around key psychological levels in uncharted price territory.

The triangle on the hourly chart has until the super (at perigee) moon on January 31 to resolve up or down:

Bitcoin, Hourly

Key levels are; $12,000, $12,840, $16,350, and $17,200.

There is also a total lunar eclipse January 31.

This bitcoin corrective triangle pattern is the reason why bitcoin market cap has declined as investors seek greener pastures in ethereum, litecoin and ripple.

Binance has buy and sell wall graphics that are useful in conjunction with support and resistance on charts.

The vertical lines represent orders to buy and sell bitcoin. In this chart the pressure to sell at $18,000 is at 90 and the pressure to buy at $10,000 is about 68.

Bitcoin forks have traditionally been a reason to buy bitcoin. However, the allure of free coins to be had from forks may be waning. There are numerous forks in the works but the usual hubbub is absent and the bitcoin price is not jumping.

Not to worry, the Canadian branches of Kentucky Fried Chicken now accepts bitcoin, even if the transaction fees exceed the purchase price of the meal.