Looking Ahead

The Future of Analysis

Joseph W. Gartin

The field of intelligence analysis is at an inflection point. Behind us, several decades of accomplishment and innovation, chastened at times by errors and shaped by cautious incrementalism. Ahead, a future—as in all knowledge industries—still coming into view but shaped by the powerful and potentially disruptive effects of artificial intelligence, big data, and machine learning on what has long been an intimately scaled human endeavor, often more art than science, and dependent on individual insights and reputations.

Over the past 30 years I have been involved in writing, leading, and teaching analysis. To be sure, analysis is a craft that has not been fixed in amber, but at no time in my intelligence career have we faced a more fluid analytic landscape. Navigating it will be challenging, and in the face of such a challenge knowing where we started is key to charting the future.

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