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Geologist Dr. Norman Page left a comment which I’ve decided to upgrade to a post. In it he writes solar and La Nina observations fit well with his recent paper showing that climate is controlled by natural orbital and solar activity cycles.

Dr. Page is among a growing number of scientists who share the general view that natural solar and oceanic cycles are mostly driving the climate, just as they always have in the past.

Warming has already peaked, cooling ahead

And as a result, Dr. Page believes that the millennial temperature cycle peaked at about 2003/4 and the earth is now in a cooling trend, which will last until about 2650. Read background here.

Recently he published a paper titled: “The coming cooling: usefully accurate climate forecasting for policy makers“.

Models “unfit for purpose”

His paper argues that the methods used by the establishment climate science community are not fit for purpose and that a new forecasting paradigm should be adopted. A number of papers have been published over the recent years pointing out that climate models have been far short of reliable.

In the paper’s abstract Dr. Page writes that the Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between various quasi-cyclic processes of varying wavelengths and that it is not possible to forecast the future unless there’s a good understanding of where the earth is in time in relation to the current phases of those different interacting natural quasi periodicities.

“Temperature decline in the coming decades and centuries”

He presents evidence specifying the timing and amplitude of the natural 60+/- year and the all important 1,000 year periodicities (observed emergent behaviors), which he and other scientists maintain are so obvious in the temperature record.



Fig. 8, HadSST3 temperature anomaly: “Over the last 135 years an approximate 60 year periodicity is clearly present in the temperature data.”

He projects cyclic trends forward and predicts a probable general temperature decline in the coming decades and centuries.

Large divergence by 2021

He also estimates the timing and amplitude of the coming cooling, writing: “If the real climate outcomes follow a trend which approaches the near term forecasts of his working hypothesis, the divergence between the IPCC forecasts and those projected by his paper will be so large by 2021 as to make the current, supposedly actionable, level of confidence in the IPCC forecasts untenable.”

The 1991 millennial solar activity peak is seen in Figure 10 neutron data.

Dr. Page notes that there is a varying lag between the solar activity peak and the corresponding peak in the different climate metrics because of the thermal inertia of the oceans. In the abstract he writes:

It has been independently estimated that there is about a 12-year lag between the cosmic ray flux and the temperature data – Fig. 3 in Usoskin (28).”

Page says this correlates with the millennial temperature peak seen at 2003/4 in the RSS data in Fig 4,

Fig 4. RSS trends showing the millennial cycle temperature peak at about 2003 (14)

Page also says that since the strong El Nino peak anomaly of 2016, the temperature has “declined rapidly” and: “The cooling trend is likely to be fully restored by the end of 2019.”

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Dr. Norman J. Page

Email: norpag@att.net

DOI: 10.1177/0958305X16686488

Energy & Environment

0(0) 1–18

(C )The Author(s) 2017

journals.sagepub.com/home/eae