With their 30th overall pick wiped off the board, the Houston Astros will now have their first selection in June’s MLB First Year Player Draft somewhere in the mid-70s. Could their first choice be Tommy Mace, a 6’6″ hurler who appears to be fresh off the Forrest Whitley assembly line?

As most fans now know, the rescinding of the team’s first two draft picks in both 2020 and 2021 are the most damaging team-oriented sanctions imposed by MLB in their mid-January sign-stealing punishment package.

FanGraphs is ranking University of Florida starting pitcher, Tommy Mace at #77, while DraftSite‘s mock draft has him 10 spots higher, at #67. Baseball America goes a little further, ranking Mace at #49, while MLB.com inches him up a couple more spots.

The goal for any team’s scouts and player development squad is to discover the best talent available; when you’re drafting in the 30th hole, landing on two or three players is easier than needing to flex to a good dozen from which to choose by the time the 74th slot comes around.

And, that’s on top of the math that emerges revealing a shallower end to the talent pool by the time the Astros are on the clock.

Similarities With A Former Gator

At 6’6″, 200 pounds, Mace is easily projectable as a starting pitcher, which the junior has been doing on weekends for the Florida Gators. His fastball works in the low 90s, but he’s been known to hit 94 mph.

While adding a curve and a changeup, he currently lacks a consistent putaway pitch. His 86-88 mph slider might just end up fitting the bill, though. He reportedly has a spin rate that would be attractive to the Astros and pitching coach Brent Strom.

Check out this plus-plus slider from @GatorsBB Tommy Mace, he’s sitting 92-93 & the SL has been consistently plus as a weapon @ 86-88. 3 scoreless thus far w/ a firm CH @ 86-88 & CB for strikes at 77-81. High follow for 2020 Draft. pic.twitter.com/wgoSh9BD5k — Vinnie Cervino (@vcervinoPG) April 12, 2019

Mace has been favorably compared to former Gator right-hander Alex Faedo, a 2017 first-round pick of the Detroit Tigers. Weighing in at 6’5″, 230 lbs, Faedo spent all of 2019 on Detroit’s Class AA Erie SeaWolves team as a starter.

Separated at Birth?

But, from an Astros perspective, it’s hard not to notice a similarity between Mace and Houston’s 6’7″ Forrest Whitley, even to the point of bearing a passing facial resemblance to the Astros’ dark-haired phenom.

The Astros’ top-ranked prospect not only worked out a little less this offseason to avoid early wear down in 2020, but gained some “good” weight –40 pounds worth– to get to 230 pounds. So much for the 190-pound “string bean” look.

“I was just so skinny that by the time the season would reach like June or July, I wasn’t ready,” Whitley confided to MLB.com recently. “That showed in 2018 [when I was 190]; I got hurt quite a little bit.”

Whitley, now 22, was Houston’s first-round pick out of San Antonio’s Alamo Heights High School in 2016. Mace, born in November 1998, is a year younger than Whitley, but will be more advanced than Forrest at draft time, having benefited from Florida’s program while growing a little more into his large body, something Whitley had to battle through as a pro.

Whitley moved quickly through Houston’s system and became one of only five high school pitchers in the last 23 years to advance to Double-A in their first full pro season (2017). Whitley joined fellow Astro Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, and Dylan Bundy enjoying that distinction.

What Will Mace Face?

A native of Tampa, Florida, Mace (a lover of cookies’n’cream ice cream) is similarly “skinny,” hanging from 200 to 205 pounds on his 6’6″ frame (some sites list his height at 6’7″). How he ends up landing on a comfortable weight that promotes good health and longevity, while deflecting injury and early-season wear down remains to be seen, regardless of who drafts him.

Mace attended Sunlake High School in Land O’Lakes, about 20 miles north of Tampa. As a 190-pound junior, he posted a 1.14 ERA in nine games, turning heads with 64 strikeouts in 49 innings.

He kept it going the next year for the Seahawks, logging an 8-2 record with a 1.29 ERA, when seven of his 12 starts were complete games. He had 101 strikeouts, yielding only 22 hits and 24 walks over 77.2 innings (0.59 WHIP), earning North Suncoast Pitcher of the Year honors.

Gator Aid?

Not wanting to commit completely beforehand, Mace was philosophical in June 2017, telling the Tampa Bay Times, “Whatever happens happens. The draft is crazy. I don’t want to have any expectations and then have them not happen. I’ll watch [Rounds 1 and 2] just to see how many of my friends get drafted. It’s cool to see all the kids you played with and against get drafted.

“I have two winning lottery tickets right now,” Mace continued, brimming with the confidence of youth. “I either get drafted or I could go to probably, by far, the best pitching guru ball club in college baseball. Either way is a win-win.”

As it turns out, Mace was drafted in the 12th round by the Cincinnati Reds in 2017 but opted to attend Florida, eager to join their renowned hurler-friendly program. It also didn’t help that the Reds had run out of bonus pool money.

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Cutter: 55| Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50

Will His Work With the Blue’n’Orange…

In 2018, as chiefly a member of the Gator bullpen (only six starts in 26 appearances), Mace worked to a 4.16 ERA over 62.2 innings. In his six starts, Mace posted a 3.00 ERA, allowing nine earned runs over 27 innings, with 18 strikeouts and four walks.

A full immersion into the rotation marked Mace’s sophomore season of 2019, as he turned in 16 starts (with a team-high 89.2 innings and 74 Ks), finishing with an 8-5 record. Showing growth and maturity, Mace took over the Friday night starting role in week four, and never let it go.

…Lead Mace to Work For Another Team in Blue’n’Orange?

Whether the Astros draft Mace when their turn finally arrives in June depends a lot on whether they think adding another tall, projectable right-handed pitcher would be beneficial or redundant.

Mace could also propel himself completely out of Houston’s draft reach by turning in a stellar 2020 season with the Gators. But, if Mace happens to land with the Astros, twin towers on the Minute Maid mound around mid-decade would be a marketing dream, and certainly fun to watch.

Plus, both Whitley and Mace are avid golfers, and to see them teeing off as a 13-foot vertical duo (about 2.4 Altuves) at the annual Houston Open would be an added bonus for fans.

FORE!