Annastacia Palaszczuk’s Labor government in Queensland is in front of its Liberal National party rivals, with One Nation polling 13%, according to a quarterly state snapshot of voting intentions in the Guardian Essential poll.



The new polling also suggests the Nick Xenophon group was attracting 18% of the vote in South Australia before Xenophon revealed his decision late last week to return to state politics to contest the state election next March.

The South Australian breakdown puts Jay Weatherill’s Labor government ahead of the Liberals on the two-party-preferred measure 52% to 48%, with Labor’s primary vote on 37% and the Liberals’ on 30%.

A separate Galaxy poll of 516 voters in the state seat of Hartley, published on Wednesday, also put Xenophon ahead of the incumbent Liberal Vincent Tarzia 53% to 47% on the two-party-preferred measure.

Labor has held government in South Australia since 2002.

Queensland is also on the verge of an election contest and the new data puts Labor well ahead on the two-party-preferred measure 54% to the LNP’s 46%. Queensland politics splits five ways. Labor’s primary vote is 35%, the LNP is on 34%, the Greens are on 10%, One Nation is on 13% and the Katter party on 2%.

Essential allocates One Nation preferences based on voter behaviour in previous elections, where the distribution split more or less evenly between Labor and the LNP. That methodology may be favourable to Labor and boost its lead in this particular snapshot.

The coming Queensland election will be a key marker of One Nation’s performance and will be closely watched given its federal implications and the number of marginal federal seats in the state.

The state breakdowns are compiled from polling conducted online between July to September. The sample sizes were 3,723 (New South Wales), 2,319 (Queensland), 2,859 (Victoria), 948 (South Australia) and 1,212 (Western Australia).

The two-party-preferred vote in each state is calculated based on estimated preference distribution of the previous election – except for Queensland, which is based on an average of the two previous elections.

The data suggests Daniel Andrews’ Labor government is in front in Victoria and Mark McGowan’s Labor government is ahead in WA on the two-party-preferred measure 54% to 46%, with One Nation currently polling 8%.

The picture is different in NSW, where Gladys Berejiklian’s Liberal government is ahead of Labor, 51% to 49%.