China is trying to expand its global military presence and increase its influence in a manner that avoids direct conflict with other countries, and it might set up a military base in Pakistan, a report prepared by the Pentagon has said. Pakistan has also emerged as the biggest market for Chinese arms exports, a focus area in Beijing’s expansion plans, the report titled ‘Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2017’, said.

“China most likely will seek to establish additional military bases in countries with which it has a long-standing friendly relationship and similar strategic interests, such as Pakistan, and in which there is a precedent for hosting foreign militaries,” the report submitted to the U.S. Congress said.

China has termed the assessment “irresponsible”.

The report notes that from 2011 to 2015, of the $20 billion in arms sales that China earned, $9 billion came from Pakistan. China is now the world’s fourth largest arms supplier. China has signed an agreement with Pakistan for the sale of eight submarines of which four each will be built in each country, the report said. Bangladesh and Burma are the other big markets for Chinese arms.

“China is expanding its access to foreign ports to pre-position the necessary logistics support to regularise and sustain deployments in the “far seas”, waters as distant as the Indian Ocean, Mediterranean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean,” the report said, noting the ongoing construction of a Chinese military base in Djibouti.

China’s strategy for expansion is one of “low-intensity coercion”, Pentagon analysts say. “China continues to exercise low-intensity coercion to advance its claims in the East and South China Seas. During periods of tension, official statements and state media seek to portray China as reactive. China uses an opportunistically timed progression of incremental but intensifying steps to attempt to increase effective control over disputed areas and avoid escalation to military conflict. China also uses economic incentives and punitive trade policies to deter opposition to China’s actions in the region. In 2016, China used CCG, maritime militia, and fishing ships to surge its maritime presence at various disputed South China Sea features following July’s arbitration ruling. At the same time, it extended economic cooperation in exchange for shelving disputes with the Philippines. Conversely, China restricted Philippine fruit imports during the height of Scarborough Reef tensions in 2012.”

It would be mistake if Pakistan allows a Chinese base, said former Pakistani diplomat and now Senior Fellow at Fellow at Hudson Institute in Washington DC, Husain Haqqani. “I hope Pakistan does not make the mistake of granting China a military base. A Chinese military base would do little to enhance Pakistan’s security, which Pakistanis believe is threatened by domestic insurgents and India. Pakistan was disappointed by its participation in U.S.-led military alliances in the 1950s and 1960s, when even the presence of a CIA base did not draw in the Americans on Pakistan’s side in conflict with India. China’s trade with India is five times greater than its trade with Pakistan. It will use a base in Pakistan to enhance its military posture in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf but is unlikely to fulfil Pakistan’s expectation of support against India. It will alarm India, the U.S. and Gulf Arab neighbours without any gain for its own security. Instead of a Chinese base, Pakistan should consider changing its security paradigm and focus on eliminating terrorist safe havens as well as normalization with India,” said Mr. Haqqani.

The Pentagon report makes “irresponsible remarks on China’s national defence development and reasonable actions in defending our territorial sovereignty and security interests in disregard of the facts,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told reporters in Beijing.