SE Asia CO2 Emissions Set To Double By 2040, As Fossil Fuel Use Continues To Rise.

By Paul Homewood

http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2015_SouthEastAsia.pdf

I made the point recently that it is not just China and India who will be expanding their use of fossil fuels in the next two decades. The same applies to many other Asian nations.

Last year the IEA published its Southeast Asia Energy Outlook. This is the Overview:

http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2015_SouthEastAsia.pdf

Note just how little renewables contribute to rising energy demand. Excluding hydro and bio, it amounts to a mere 42 Mtoe extra a year by 2040 (compared to 2013). Yet fossil fuels are expected to jump by 401 Mtoe. (Note that bioenergy is mainly solid biomass used for household cooking, ie wood!)

What is also striking is that fossil fuel consumption continues to rise well after 2030, as Figure 2.3 illustrates:

There is a babyish belief that developing Asian countries will suddenly switch away from fossil fuels after 2030. As I have repeatedly pointed out, none of them are going to suddenly shut down power stations that are only a few years old, or, for that matter, return their people to a low energy future from which they have just escaped.

All of this will have the expected effect on CO2 emissions, which will more than double by 2040:

Figure 2.9 shows how expensive wind and solar power are, despite regular claims to the contrary.

To put all these figures into perspective, we can compare them with the UK.

Last year, fossil fuel consumption in the UK amounted to 156 Mtoe. The projections for SE Asia are for an increase of 401 Mtoe by 2040.

In fact, the UK, France and Italy could all stop using fossil fuels completely and their saving would be totally cancelled out by the extra SE Asia would use.

NOTES

The IEA projections are based on what they call the “New Policies Scenario”. This is regarded as the central scenario, which they describe thus:

Our central scenario, the New Policies Scenario, assumes the continuation of existing policies and measures as well as the cautious implementation of policy proposals, even if they are yet to be formally adopted. The projections do not assume the deployment of breakthrough technologies, but do allow for efficiency improvements and further cost reductions of energy technologies that are in use or are approaching commercialisation.

In other words, it most definitely is not a “Business as Usual” case, but a realistic assessment which takes account of existing climate policies.