NFL 2019 Offensive Rookie Of The Year Odds: Kyler Murray The Favorite, David Montgomery Undervalued

(USA TODAY Sports)

The NFL Draft is over and now we focus on training camps opening up in two months. Kyler Murray went first overall to the Arizona Cardinals and barring a disaster, he’ll start Week 1 versus the Detroit Lions. Shortly after the final pick in the draft was made, FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey released NFL odds to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 2019. Murray is the early +260 favorite, followed by Dwayne Haskins (+750) and Marquise Brown (+1000).

We break down the odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year and look at some players who represent value for bettors, including the Bears’ new running back.

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NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds (FanDuel)

Kyler Murray the Early Favorite

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It’s not surprising to see Murray open as the early +260 favorite. The Heisman Trophy winner enters a good situation in Arizona under new head coach and offensive whiz Kliff Kingsbury. Murray will start from Day 1 and even on a team that finished 3-13 in 2018, he should put up impressive stats as a rookie, both as a passer and a runner.

The Cardinals also added receivers Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler in the draft. They will join last year’s second-round pick Christian Kirk and future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald to give Murray more weapons than Josh Rosen had to work with last season. Add in running back David Johnson and Arizona has the pieces in place for Murray to excel in Kingsbury’s fast break offense.

I actually think there is some value with taking Murray +260 now. If he plays well in his first two games, Murray’s odds will shorten even more. If you like Murray to win Offensive ROY, jump on him now.

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Dwayne Haskins was the third quarterback selected in the NFL Draft but he’s the second favorite behind Murray to win Offensive ROY at +750. Those odds look s little short to me but I can certainly see Haskins winning the starting job in training camp with only Case Keenum and an injured Colt McCoy standing in his way. I’d be more interested in Haskins if he were 10/1 or longer, so I’ll pass for now.

Daniel Jones went before Haskins at pick No. 6, much to the dismay of some Giants fans. Oddsmakers don’t have much confidence Jones will win Offensive ROY. He opened at +2300, behind Murray, Haskins and second-round pick Drew Lock. His odds should be closer to 30/1 but with FanDuel stationed in New Jersey, they adjust to the local market. However, most Giants fans are so salty about the pick, they probably won’t be rushing to the window to bet on Jones.

Overvalued Players

While there is some value taking the favorite Murray, there are a few other players that appear to be overvalued based on the early odds. The one that really stands out to me is Lions TE T.J. Hockenson. Hockenson is a great player but first-year tight ends rarely make a huge splash in the NFL and they never win Offensive ROY. Since the award was first given out in 1967, no tight end has ever won Offensive ROY. Not once in 51 years.

Hockenson will help Detroit’s offense but he has no chance to win the award. He’s way overvalued at +1300 and the same goes for Noah Fant at +2300. I’d rather put money down on a player like RB Josh Jacobs at +1200, who has a much better chance to win the award.

The other player I wouldn’t even consider right now is Drew Lock. There’s a chance Lock could end the season as the Broncos’ starting quarterback if Joe Flacco struggles. However, Flacco will start the year under center and even if Lock takes over around Week 6, he’ll be too far behind Murray and others to win the award. Lock is Denver’s quarterback of the future and even if he sees time in 2019, it won’t be nearly enough to win Offensive ROY. A hard pass on Lock at +1700.

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Undervalued Players

The best value on the board right now is clearly RB David Montgomery at +3500. I was really surprised to see Montgomery open at that number and I don’t expect it to last long, so grab it now. Some players enter a perfect situation and that’s the case with Montgomery and the Bears. A tough, physical runner, Montgomery was a workhorse in college at Iowa State where he led the nation by forcing 109 missed tackles last year.

Chicago traded Jordan Howard to the Eagles this offseason, while Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis are more complementary backs than every-down options. It would be surprising if Montgomery doesn’t open the season as the Bears starter. He’ll be featured on a Super Bowl contending team that wins with defense and running the football. There’s a lot to like about Montgomery at +3500.

The other player I like is Colts WR Parris Campbell at +2100. Indianapolis was starving for receivers last year and only added Devin Funchess this offseason. Even with Funchess in the mix, there is very little talent behind T.Y. Hilton. Campbell has an opportunity to step right in and become the Colts’ starting slot receiver.

One of the best route runners in the draft, Campbell is an example of talent + opportunity leading to first-year production. It also doesn’t hurt a rookie receiver to have Andrew Luck throwing him the ball. I like Campbell to have a more productive first season than A.J. Brown (+2100) and N’Keal Harry (+2100), so I’ll take a shot on him to win Offensive ROY at +2100.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Picks

Kyler Murray +260

Josh Jacobs +1200

Parris Campbell +2100

David Montgomery +3500