Rep. Scott Perry's seat goes from 'likely Republican' to 'lean Republican'

Ed Mahon | York Daily Record

U.S. Rep. Scott Perry's re-election bid is looking more competitive, according to The Cook Political Report.

"At least several Keystone State Republicans are concerned that Perry, a three-term Freedom Caucus member, remains unprepared for a fight in a Harrisburg district that was redrawn in February to be much more competitive and is 41 percent new to him," David Wasserman wrote for the organization that analyzes and rates election campaigns.

Wasserman wrote that:

President Donald Trump won Perry's old district by 22 points. But because of redistricting, Perry is competing in a district that Trump won by nine points.

Some Democrats believe that challenger George Scott's background in the military and as a political outsider matches up well against Perry, an Iraq War veteran and former state lawmaker.

Scott outraised Perry in the most recent fundraising period, although Perry still had more cash on hand.

Wasserman said Perry probably can use Scott’s primary campaign ad, in which he burned a semi-automatic rifle and called for expanded background checks, against him.

"But Perry has never had to run in a competitive general election, and this seat is now much more suburban," Wasserman wrote.

More: Rep. Scott Perry is the only Republican from Pa. pushing for impeachment of deputy AG

More: How worried should Scott Perry and Republicans be about Dem challenger George Scott?

The Cook Political Report has four main ratings: Toss-Up, in which either party has a good chance of winning; Lean, which are considered competitive but with one party having an advantage; Likely, which are not considered competitive at this point, "but have the potential to become engaged"; and Solid, which aren't considered competitive.

Nationally, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently expressed more interest in Scott's campaign, naming him to its Red to Blue program, which gives candidates organizational and fundraising support.

"Since I announced my candidacy last August, this has been about making sure that the people of Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District are truly represented in Washington," Scott said in a news release. "They deserve a representative who works to develop a 21st century workforce, supports quality public education, and ensures everyone can access affordable and quality health care."

Meanwhile, a Perry campaign spokesman told PennLive that the Republican "continues to work tirelessly to rein in the excesses of Washington, lessen the size/impact of our outrageously big government, and ensure our Nation's security - not only to create jobs and opportunity, but to encourage the re-growth of strength and prosperity our country once knew."

Scott is now one of five Pennsylvania Democrats on the Red to Blue list. The others are Scott Wallace and Chrissy Houlahan in the Philadelphia suburbs; Susan Wild in the Allentown area; and Ron DiNicola, who is seeking to represent a northwestern Pennsylvania district that includes Erie.

The newly drawn 10th Congressional District includes all of Dauphin County, much of northern York County and parts of Cumberland county.