Federal forecasters on Thursday reinforced expectations of a strong El Niño this winter, saying there’s a 95 percent chance the burly weather phenomenon, often linked to rain in California, sticks around until spring.

Equatorial waters in the Pacific remain extraordinarily warm and trade winds that typically push balmy seas away from the Americas remain weak. The conditions portend an El Niño on par with the giants in 1997-98 and 1982-83, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center.