JOSH BUCHANAN

July 2, 2018

The year 2018 is half way complete and according to SRAR’s new stats for June, the market is continuing its slowdown and ratios are getting worse. The number of sales for the month was only 345 which is down nearly 50 from last year and 185 from 2014 when sales numbers peaked. The number of listings continued to slide and produced just 858 which is down by just over 100 compared to last year and down by 171 compared to 2015 when listings peaked. With a significant fall in sales numbers and a slightly disproportional fall in listings compared to last year, the sales-to-listings ratio fell one point from 0.41 to 0.40.

When compared to the 5-year averages for June, this year fell behind in sales by just over 100 units but also saw 62 fewer sales which created the sales-to-listings ratio drop from 0.50 to 0.41. As should be expected when supply significantly outnumbers demand, prices are continuing to drop. A monthly-basis price comparison isn’t really worth paying much attention to but it is interesting to see how this June fell as much as $30,000 compared to previous years.

For YTD numbers, this year now has 180 fewer sales than last year, exactly 700 fewer listings and a sales-to-listings ratio that is better by two points compared to last year. The average sales price for 2018 now sits at $333,977 which is down by over $15,000 compared to last year and roughly $22,000 compared to the peak in 2015.

When looking at 5-year averages for YTD numbers, this year has produced some very poor numbers. Sales are down from 2,072 to 1,686 which is a drop of 386 or 17% and listings are down from 4,856 to 4,378 which is a drop of 478 or 10%. The sales-to-listings ratio is down from 0.43 to 0.39 and the average MLS sales price is down by roughly $17,000 or 5%.

Conclusion:

The market continues to weaken and slow down but we have yet to see any kind of major catalyst to speed up the process. There were some instances where it appeared as if something may brewing that would trigger a quicker and more severe price correction in the market, however, nothing truly transpired. In a society that has gotten used to quick and easy fixes, it looks like this is going to be a very slow and painful correction that has already gone on for 4 years and has no obvious signs of turning around. If you’re tired of waiting for prices to bottom-out before buying property, I don’t blame you. However, with all ratios we’ve been seeing this year, don’t expect to buy something in 2018 and see any kind of value appreciation in the near future.

Josh Buchanan isn’t employed by anyone, is not compensated in any form for this blog and does not benefit in any way from your real estate decisions.