Election 2020 Forecast. 2020 Electoral College Map Prediction November 16 2017

2020 Electoral College ratings (November 2017)



TRUMP: 306(2016) + MN(10) + NH(4) + ME Statewide(2) = 322



DEM: 232(2016) - MN(10) - NV(6) - NH(4) - ME Statewide(2) =210

Swing States: NV(6)= 6

This Map Created with www.Mapchart.net



About the Details

I. TRUMP job approval raiting is increased.

MorningConsult/politico poll 11/2-6, 2017. 1991 RV



https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015f-9dc5-d390-ab5f-bdf7a9a60001



1) Page 1. TRUMP Approval Rating Approve 44% | Disapprove 51%

perhaps with LV sampling, it could be Approve 46% | Disapprove 49%

2) Page 17-18. TRUMP Favorable rating is higher than Democrats in congress. TRUMP 43% > Democrats in Congress 36%





II. Minority voters Support %(VA Election 2017 Exit Poll)

1. VA Gubernatorial Election 2013 Exit Poll

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/11/05/va.gov.exit.polls.1120p.110513.v2.final[1].copy.pdf



1) Black: McAullife(DEM) 90% | Cuccinelli(REP) 8%

1)-2 Black Men: McAullife(DEM) 90% | Cuccinelli(REP) 10%



2) Hispanic: N/A





2. VA Presidential Election 2016 Exit Poll

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/virginia/president



1) Black: Hillary(DEM) 88% | TRUMP(REP) 9%

1)-2 Black Men: Hillary(DEM) 84% | TRUMP(REP) 13%



2) Hispanic: Hillary(DEM) 65% | TRUMP(REP) 30%







3. VA Gubernatorial Election 2017 Exit Poll

https://www.cnn.com/election/2017/results/virginia-governor



1) Black: Northam(DEM) 87% | Gillespie(REP) 12%

1)-2. Black Men: Northam(DEM) 81% | Gillespie(REP) 17%



2) Hispanic: Northam(DEM) 67% | Gillespie(REP) 32%





4. TRUMP Approval Rating among Hispanic

Morning Consult Poll(November 9-11. 179 Hispanic RV) 32%. Perhaps with LV model it could be like 34%ish. compare with Election 2016 Results (Hispanic: Hillary 65% TRUMP 29% Other 6%) increased by about +5%.



https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/171104_crosstabs_POLITICO_v1_DK-1.pdf







5. Minority Support % of Repulbican Nominee

(Election 2013->2016->2017)



1) Black: increased by +3~4%.



1)-2 Black Men: increased by 4%(compare with 2016)



2) Hispanic: Increased by +2~5%

Despite of NOVA(DC suburbs) wave(which favor democratic party) in Election 2017.

Minority Support % of Rep Nominee are increased.

increasement of Minority Support %(of REP) could be higher in other states.





III. Virginia Gubernatorial Election 2017 Results

Despite of Dem’s huge victory(about +9% margins) it also proved Rural area=Tred Republican. Gillespie® got similar % in South West Virginia



South West Virginia

1) Election 2017 : Gillespie® 64% | Northam(D) 34%

https://www.cnn.com/election/2017/results/virginia-governor



2) Election 2013:Cuccinelli® 58% | McAuliffe(D) 34%

So it is very likely Rural Trends might keep going until Election 2020.

High Rural vote share BattleGround States(Election 2016 Exit Poll)

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/michigan/president



Maine 43%, New Hampshire 37%, Minnesota 30%, Michigan 27% Wisconsin 27%, North Carolina 24%, Georgia 23%, Pennsylvania 19%



(National: suburban 49% | Urban 34% | Rural 17% )



New Mexico is kinda likely Dem State. Anyway Rural Vote share in

New Mexico =32%





IV. Election trends&Demogaphics (by State)

1. Nevada

Election 2016 Results: Hillary 47.9% | TRUMP 45.5%. DEM +2.4%



1) The gaps(November 1 2017) Between democrats and republicans in NV decreased by 19.6k voters compare with Nov,2016.



Consiering Turnouts(Election 2016; it was 78.3% in NV) Now Dem’s margins in NV +1.34% smaller than Election 2016.

19.6k x 76.8%(Turnouts) / 1.125 Million (2016 Total Votes in NV) = 1.34%



November 1 2017. DEM 636.9k - REP 537.5k= 99.4k voters

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5143



October 2016. DEM 666k - REP 547k= 119k voters

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4522



Especially most of statewide reduced margins from Clark county(Reduced by 15.7k).



Oct 2016: DEM 510K - REP 337 = DEM +173K

Oct 2017: DEM 487.8k - REP 330.5 = +157.3K

2) in 2016, Green Party nominee failed ballot access in Nevada.

considering even constitution party nominee(Darrel Castle, he got 0.47% in NV ) made it in 2016. perhaps Green party would make it in 2020. Then Dem’s margins in NV might reduced by 1.5~2% fore sure.



1)+2) = 1.34% + 1.5~2%= 2.84~3.34% which is bigger than Dem’s margins in 2016(2.4%).

Plus, as I mentioned above TRUMP approval rating among Hispanic increased by 5%ish. (Hispanic vote share of NV, 18%)





2. Minnesota

82 of 87 counties in Minnesota swung to Republican Nominee(Trump). Especially Rural Area. TRUMP won 79 of 87 Counties in Minnesota.

Minnesota was won by Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by a 1.5% margin.



if current trends continue, on next election 2020 Dem might barely keep 4 counties (Twin Cities and St. Louis and cook.)



Espeically in MN, Rural Vote share is about 30%

Election 2012 MN Exit Poll. Rural: Romney 49% | Obama 47%



Election 2016 MN Exit Poll. Rural(30%): TRUMP 58% | Hillary 35%

in 2020, Rural: TRUMP 65% | Dem nominee 28%. pretty possible scenario. then TRUMP increase his margins of Rural about +14%.

30%x14%=+4.2%Statewide Margins change.



about the details of MN: http://statespoll.com/post/166038989900



MN is a Lean TRUMP states.







3. Michigan

Similar reason as Minnesota. Especially TRUMP might get more votes from Rural Area in MI&WI than He did in 2016.



a biggest democratic county, Wayne county is losing population.

(2008: 1.949 Million -> 2012: 1.793 Million -> 2016: 1.749 Million)

Esp, high Rural vote share in MI(27%)

And TRUMP has still enough space to expand vote margins

2012 MI Exit Poll. Rural: Romney 53% | Obama 46%



2016 MI Exit Poll.Rural: TRUMP 56% | Hillary 38%



Related Post: http://StatesPoll.com/post/166068369445



at this moment MI is a Likely TRUMP states.







4. Virginia

Considering NOVA Wave(Esp Election 2017 results), VA=Trends Dem

At this Moment VA=Likely Dem +6~8%

(unless TRUMP wins among independent in VA more than 15%+ margins plus get 95%ish support of Republican in VA.)





5. Colorado

Colorado is a strange state.



Party Affiliation Statistics: REP and DEM have a similar numbers.

But when election Day, vote share DEM +6~8%.

1) Party Affiliation Statistics 2012.

10/19/2012. Active Voters: Total 2.7Million

REP 912k | DEM 871K



http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/VoterRegNumbers/2012/20121019/VotersByPartyStatus.pdf



1)-2. Presidential Election 2012 Colorado Exit Poll



http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/CO/president/



DEM 34% | REP 29% | IND 37%

2) Party Affiliation Statistics 2016.

11/1/2016. Active Voters: Total 3.27 Million

REP 1.03 Million | DEM 1.04 Million



http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/VoterRegNumbers/2016/October/VotersByPartyStatus.pdf



DEM 32% | REP 24% | IND 43%

3) Current Party Affiliation Statistics



11/1/2017. Active voters: Total 3.37 Million

REP 1.04 Million | DEM 1.05 Million

if mysterious low turnout rates of Republican in Colorado won’t change in 2020. The results might similar as 2016 (unless TRUMP wins among independent in CO by 15%+ margins.)



Colorado: a Lean Dem state (without candidate like McMullin. at this moment about DEM +3~4%)





6. Ohio&Wisconsin



Similar reason as Minnesota. Especially TRUMP might get more votes from Rural Area in OH&WI than He did in 2016.

1) Election 2016 Results

Ohio: TRUMP 51.69% | Hillary 43.56%

Wisconsin: TRUMP 47.22% | Hillary 46.45%



https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president

Click ‘Change from 2012’. Then You can see most counties in OH/WI swung to Republican Nominee(Trump). Especially Rural Area.



1) Ohio TRUMP carried 80 of 88 counties in Ohio.

(Romney carried only 71 of 88 counties in 2012)



Most counties(85 of 88) in Ohio swung to Republican Nominee(Trump).



2) Wisconsin TRUMP carried 61 of 72 counties in Wisconsin

(Romney carried only 38 of 72 counties in 2012)



Most counties(68 of 72) in Wisconsin swung to Republican Nominee(Trump).



if current trends continue it could be possible only 3~4 blue counties left in 2020. Dane/Milwaukee/Iowa + La Crosse(but margins would be less than 10%) . (Menominee would be stay as a blue county also, but it gives just less than 1k vote margins for Dem.)







7. Pennsylvania&North Carolina

1) Election 2016 Results



Pennsylvania: TRUMP 48.18% | Hillary 47.46%

North Carolina: TRUMP 49.84% | Hillary 46.17%



Similar reason as Michigan&Wisconsin.

Plus the gaps(May 2017) between democrats and republicans in NC/PA decreased a lot.







2) Pennsylvania



(1) Trends: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president

Click ‘Change from 2012’. Then You can see most counties(61 of 67) in Pennsylvania swung to Republican Nominee(Trump). Especially Rural&Suburb areas. TRUMP carried 56 of 67 counties in Pennsylvania

(Romney carried 54 of 67 counties in 2012)

if current trends continue, on next election 2020 Dem might barely keep 5 counties in PA(Philly/Delaware/Allegheny/Chester/MontgoMery)

(2) The gaps(November 7 2017) Between democrats and republicans in PA decreased by 101k voters compare with Nov,2016.



Consiering Turnouts(Election 2016; it was 70% in PA) Now TRUMP’s margins in PA +1% bigger than Election 2016.

101k x 70%(Turnouts) / 6.16 Million (2016 Total Votes in PA) = 1.14%



November 7 2017. DEM 4.032Million - REP 3.223 Million= 809k voters

http://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/CandidatesCommittees/RunningforOffice/Documents/2017%20Election%20VR%20Stats.pdf



November, 2016. DEM 4.21Million - REP 3.3 Million= 910k voters

http://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/OtherServicesEvents/VotingElectionStatistics/Documents/2016%20Election%20VR%20Stats.pdf







3) North Caroilna

The gaps(November 2017) between democrats and republicans in NC decreased by 66k voters compare with Nov,2016.

Consiering Turnouts(Election 2016; it was 69% in NC) Now TRUMP’s margins in NC +1% bigger than Election 2016.



66k x 69%(Turnouts) / 4.74 Million (2016 Total Votes in NC) = 0.96%



https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=11%2F11%2F2017

https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=10%2F29%2F2016

November 11, 2017. DEM 2.643Million - REP 2.059 Million= 584k voters

Oct 29th, 2016. DEM 2.71Million - REP 2.06 Million= 650k voters

at this moment, I think NC&PA are Likely TRUMP states.







8. Florida

Election 2016 Results: TRUMP 49.02% | Hillary 47.82%



Demographics & Polls.



1) Latest Poll

(1) Florida Senate Race 2018 Poll. UNF10/11-10/17. 706 RV Scott(Rep) vs Nelson(Dem) My Post: http://StatesPoll.com/post/166769135580



My Analysis(Adjusted %): Scott(Rep) +3.3%



(2) United States Senate election in Florida, 2018. Scott(Rep) vs Nelson(Dem). Mason-Dixon poll 10/17-10/19. 625 RV

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article180923056.html

My Analysis(Adjusted %): Scott(Rep) +6.46%







2) The gaps(September/2017) between democrats and republicans in FL decreased by 64k voters compare with Nov,2016.

http://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-monthly-reports/voter-registration-annual-by-party-affiliation/

September 30, 2017. DEM 4.806 Million - REP 4,54 Million= 266k voters

2016. DEM 4.905 Million - REP 4.575 Million= 330k voters.

at this moment, I think Florida is a lean TRUMP state.







9. Maine

Election 2016 Results: Hillary 47.8% | TRUMP 44.9%



TRUMP carried 9 of 16 counties in Maine.

(Romney carried only 1 of 16 counties in 2012)



1) Trends: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president

Click 'Change from 2012’. Then You can see all counties in ME swung to Republican Nominee(Trump).

The gap was 22k votes(2.9%) in 2016.

if current trends continue in 2020

(1) Except Cumberland and Knox county TRUMP might flip every blue counties in Maine.

(2) TRUMP might increase his votes in Red counties in Maine

(3) Jill Stein might increase +2% in 2020(mostly from Democratic party’s votes)

at this moment, I think Maine is a lean TRUMP state.





10. New Hampshire(Similar as Maine)

Election 2016 Results: Hillary 46.98% | TRUMP 46.61%



TRUMP carried 6 of 10 counties in New Hampshire. (Romney carried only 3 of 10 counties in 2012)

1) Trends: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president

Click 'Change from 2012’.

You can see all counties in NH swung to Republican Candidate(Trump).



2) Jill Stein might increase +2% in 2020(mostly from Democratic party’s votes)



if current trends continue in 2020, TRUMP might flip NH easily.(2016 margins was only Hillary +0.27% in NH.)

at this moment, I think New Hampshire is a lean TRUMP state.





11. Oregon

Election 2016 Results: Hillary 50.07% | TRUMP 39.09%. DEM +10.98%



The gaps(October/2017) between democrats and republicans in Oregon decreased by 10k voters compare with Nov,2016.

Meanwhile Independent voter share is increased by 3.3%.



Perhaps now less Never-TRUMP voter(among REP-Lean REP IND) than 2016.



So, Now I guess Oregon could be like DEM +8%ish.(Still a likely DEM state. But reduced margins compare with 2016.)



2016 Exit Poll: DEM 33% | REP 23% | IND 44%



October 2016: Total 2.577 Million



http://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/registration/Oct16.pdf



DEM 988.8K(38.36%) | REP 716.9K (27.81%) | Other 872k(33.83%)



October 2017: Total 2.661 Million



http://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/registration/Oct17.pdf



DEM 966.9K(36.33%) | REP 705.2K (26.50%) | Other 989k(37.12%)



2016 Exit Poll http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/oregon/president



DEM: Hillary 92% | TRUMP 4% | Others 4%



REP: Hillary 7% | TRUMP 87% | Others 6%



IND: Hillary 43% | TRUMP 41% | Others 16%





2012 Exit Poll http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/OR/president/



DEM: Obama 92% | Romney 7% | Others 1%



REP: Obama 6% | Romney 92% | Others 2%



IND: Obama 52% | Romney 43% | Others 5%