Newly installed wind power capacity increased 4 percent, or 52 gigawatts (GW), year-to-year in 2018, the third-highest yearly total on record according to Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables' Global Wind Power Market Outlook update: Q1 2019.

Resumption of wind power capacity growth in China fueled the global rise. “This significant level of investment seen last year was largely driven by a resurgence in China. The lifting of red warnings in key Northern provinces in China unlocked development, contributing to a 37% uptick YoY in the country (+5.6GW), that influenced nearly 2GW of net capacity additions globally last year," highlighted Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables' Research Director Luke Lewandowski.

Expiration of wind power subsidy programs in Europe served as a counterweight. New wind power capacity additions dropped 26 percent year-to-year in Northern Europe and 36 percent in Western Europe. Phasing out of the U.K.'s Renewables Obligation (RO) and feed-in tariffs (FiTs) in Finland and Germany took the biggest toll on growth in Western Europe, according to the report.

Looking out over a 10-year horizon, Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables expects 723 GW of new wind power will come online globally from 2019-2028.

New wind power growth drivers

Phasing out of the U.S. wind power production tax credit (PTC) should spur faster growth in the U.S. from 2019-2021. Wood Mackenzie expects no less than 48 percent of planned U.S. wind power projects over its 10-year outlook to come online during the period. “Mitigation strategies to be employed against execution risk and robust C&I demand both support near-term expectations, while the strengthening of state-level targets and innovation will drive long-term development,” Lewandowski commented.

Looking south, 2019 proved a challenging year for new wind power deployment in Latin America. "Unfavorable dynamics unfolded in Mexico and no awards were given in Colombia's inaugural auction," Wood Mackenzie highlights. More specifically, “the cancellation of Mexico’s long-term auction and a critical HVDC line stymie growth potential puts a greater emphasis on the maturation of developing markets, several of which lack a schedule for the next round of auctions. Despite these challenges, the region boasts a 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 10%," Lewandowski pointed out.

From a longer term perspective, Wood Mackenzie foresees strong wind power capacity growth across the Asia-Pacific region over the 10-year period beginning this year. India's ambitious renewable energy targets and "explosive growth in the offshore sector" will fuel wind power capacity in Asia-Pacific at a 12.2 percent compound annual growth (CAGR) from 2019-2028, Wood Mackenzie predicts.

“Target compliance in India is likely to bifurcate the next decade’s outlook, with near-term challenges posing issues for the 2020 target. Cumulative offshore capacity in the region will reach almost 19GW from just 111MW at the end of 2018, led by growth in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea," Lewandowski commented.

In addition, the resumption of growth in wind power capacity in China will continue, adding momentum to regional growth. The lifting of new wind power capacity red warnings in other Chinese provinces can support 250 GW of new capacity through to 2028, according to Wood Mackenzie's report. Furthermore, offshore wind power's share of annual, new wind power capacity in China will average 18 percent of annual totals from 2022-2028 as a result of onshore grid constraints and saturation.

Looking west to Europe, Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables sees the transition to power auctions in Europe supporting a new level of capacity additions that the market research and investment consultancy expects to average 20 GW per year.

Furthermore, Wood Mackenzie expects commercial and industrial demand for onshore and offshore wind on the part of European companies to proliferate making them increasingly important buyers and drivers of market growth and development. “Offshore remains central to Europe’s outlook, comprising more than 25% of new capacity over the outlook (CAGR of 14%) and penetrating new markets in Southern and Eastern Europe,” Lewandowski said.

Rounding out its global outlook, Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables expects "pioneering development in the Middle East and Africa" to fuel consistent annual growth and 10-year CAGRs of 35 percent and 21 percent, respectively.