Team captains pose at the NRL finals series launch at ANZ Stadium. In 2015, it was the Cowboys, also winning their inaugural title, made more dramatic by a victory in extra time, courtesy of the game's most lovable player, Johnathan Thurston. It was Souths turn in 2014, the fairy tale of the once "pride of the league" who had been culled from the competition in the wake of the Super League war. Yet another redemptive story for the most Old Testament of sports. You could argue the NRL were also delighted when the Roosters won in 2013.

Paul Gallen and his teammates celebrate their grand final win last year. After all, any opportunity to get Roosters' chairman, Nick Politis, off the back of the suits at RL Central would be welcomed, albeit briefly. So who is the NRL/ARLC's choice as 2017 champions? It would have to be a team from Sydney's western suburbs, given the last one to win a grand final was Wests Tigers in 2005. The merged Wests-Balmain club hasn't made the 2017 play-offs, so they're out, along with the disappointing Bulldogs, winners in 2004.

The Panthers won in 2003 and are in the semis but their form in the past two games has been very ordinary. That leaves the Eels, who finished fourth and tick all the NRL boxes. They haven't won a premiership since 1986; they have, potentially, the biggest following in Sydney. They move into a new stadium at Parramatta in 2019, meaning that if they win this year's premiership, it will be a great lead-in for ticket sales, even if they will be playing in the interim at the fan-unfriendly ANZ stadium. There's another compelling reason why the NRL administration would love to see the captain of the blue and golds hoist the premiership trophy.

The NRL put the club into administration, after working with the NSW government to sack the board and dismiss the executive following proof of alarming salary cap excess and breaches of corporate governance. While the punishment of officials was firm and fair, the sanctions against those who gained most from the salary cap over-spending – the players and their agents – were let off comparatively lightly. It meant that the Eels could come back competitively the following season and now, here they are, in the top four. Not only are the executives at RL Central entitled to pat themselves on the back but the resurrection of a great club is a bulwark against the rise of the AFL's Greater Western Sydney Giants. Last year, the AFL Commission wanted an all-Sydney grand final – Swans versus the Giants – to justify their expansion policy.

The AFL heavies didn't get their wish but will continue to spend $20m a year on the Giants until they win a flag and pull supporters away from rugby league in Sydney's west. Perhaps the NRL could consider an alternate strategy to countering AFL and look south to Melbourne. In 2006, the year of the Storm's second grand final, the number of registered rugby league players in Melbourne was 650. This year, it is a little under 4000. Now, these are fair dinkum players, ones who play in an organised competition, with teams and referees and mostly on adult-sized fields. They are not kids given a T-shirt and a sticker at an Auskick clinic and counted in submissions for government grants.

Instead of asking who does the NRL hope wins the premiership, we should consider the fans. Until NRL boss Todd Greenberg's response to the incendiary comment from Cronulla five-eighth James Maloney about everyone other than players being "accessories", the only past or current administrator I heard mention the fan was former NSWRL boss, John Quayle. It was in reference to the Storm's round-24 match against the Knights in Newcastle when he said how many league lovers in the Hunter were saying they were looking forward to seeing Melbourne's big three – Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk – play together for the last time. As it transpired, Cronk withdrew but the point is the Newcastle crowd didn't attend just to watch their Knights. It was also the sublime skills of a team which had won a minor premiership with three rounds left that they paid their hard earned to see.

It's fashionable to hate Melbourne amongst Sydney's young who follow NRL on iPhones but fair-dinkum leaguies can put aside club and city loyalties to appreciate skill. A referee, by nature of the pressure of his work, must love the game. Loading It follows that he would reward skill, rather than the team on whom headquarters heaps its hopes.