Hailed by Michael Salfino of the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” the Prospect Digest Handbook is a perennial favorite among baseball enthusiasts, minor league fans, and fantasy general managers. Now back for its fifth season, the Prospect Digest Handbook is the definitive guide to the minor leagues.

1. Sixto Sanchez, RHP

Background: Signed out of San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, for an exceptionally paltry sum, just $35,000, Sanchez has been turning heads since jumping stateside two years ago. Standing a less-than-imposing, almost Pedro Martinez-esque, 6-foot and 185 pounds, Sanchez was literally – and figuratively – almost unhittable in the Gulf Coast League as a 17-year-old: In 11 starts with the club’s GCL affiliate he posted an impeccable 44-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 54.0 innings. The impressive part: he finished 2016 with a 0.50 ERA, a 2.26 FIP, a 2.64 xFIP, and a 3.30 DRA (Deserved Run Average). The Phillies, never an organization that shied away from aggressive promotions, assigned the then 18-year-old to the South Atlantic League at the start of last season.

Sanchez didn’t disappoint.

In 13 starts with the Lakewood BlueClaws, the wiry fire-baller tallied an impeccable 64-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 67.1 innings of work. The front office, still governing the teenager’s workload, sent him up to the Florida State League in early August for another five – mostly dominant – starts. Sanchez finished the year with a career high 95.0 innings pitched, punching out 84 against just 18 walks en route to tallying a 3.03 ERA and an even better 2.66 xFIP. Opponents, by the way, batted a paltry .210/.255/.264. For his young career, Sanchez is averaging 7.5 strikeouts and just 1.6 walks per nine innings to go along with a 2.47 ERA.

Projection: Before jumping into the analysis, here’s something to consider: since 2006 there’s been only thirteen 18-year-old pitchers to throw at least one inning in any of the three High Class A leagues. And only one of them – Deolis Guerra – tossed more innings than Sanchez did with the Clearwater Threshers.

Sanchez was incredibly dominant during his 2017 campaign. He walked just 18 hitters last season, but here’s the kicker: 11 of those 18 free passes came in just three games. In other words, he walked seven over other his other 80.1 innings – or an average of 0.78 walks every nine innings. Not only is he blessed with sniper-like precision, Sanchez routinely hits triple-digits with his fastball. And according to one article by Philly.com, scouts are already throwing around some hefty comparisons like Pedro Martinez and Jose Fernandez. But do they fit?

With respect to his work in the Sally, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s a list of 18-year-old pitchers to post at least a 25% strikeout percentage with a sub-4.0% walk percentage in the South Atlantic League (min. 50 IP): Sixto Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner. Though the latter missed more sticks on average.

Other than a slight frame size, Sanchez hasn’t raised any red flags: he misses bats, hands out as many free passes in a year that some teenagers issue in a week, and has dominated against significantly older competition. If he can avoid the injury nexus – and I sincerely hope he does because it’ll be fun to watch – the ceiling is limitless.

Ceiling: 5.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2019

2. Jhailyn Ortiz, RF

Background: Signed out of the Dominican Republic for a hefty $4 million a couple years ago. The organization pushed the big investment straight into the Gulf Coast League for his debut two years ago. And the then-17-year-old corner outfielder responded with a secondary skill set-driven .231/.325/.434 with nine doubles, one triple, and eight homeruns to go along with eight stolen bases. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by an impressive 29%. The front office once again aggressively challenged him in 2017, sending him up to the New York-Penn League. In 47 games with the Williamsport Crosscutters, the 6-foot-3, 215-pound prospect slugged .302/.401/.560 with 15 doubles, one triple, and eight homeruns. He also went 5-for-6 in the stolen base department as well. His production in the NYPL topped the league average mark by a staggering 85%.

Projection: Let’s just jump right into to it. Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 18-year-old hitters to top the 150 wRC+ mark in the New York-Penn League (min. 150 PA): Victor Robles and Jhailyn Ortiz.

Robles, who tallied a 168 wRC+ in the NYPL in 2015, quickly ascended to become one of the game’s top prospects shortly afterward. And Ortiz’s overall production – and power – dwarfed his former 18-year-old counterpart’s. Now to be fair, Philly’s youngster also swung and missed with a greater frequency as well (12.6% vs. 25.1%). Ortiz’s K-rate will need to be monitored as he progresses up the ladder. But he’s shown plus- to plus-plus power potential with a solid walk rate. At worst, he becomes a Three True Outcomes hitter. At best, if everything breaks the right way, well, true stardom isn’t out of the question. One final thought: he’s been abysmal in the outfield and given his weight, a future shift to first base isn’t out of the question.

Ceiling: 4.0- to 4.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

Background: A sabermetric darling with a nose for first base via the free pass, Crawford, the 16th overall pick in the 2013 draft, spent the majority of the year with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs for the second consecutive season. The lefty-swinging shortstop, a perennial Top 100 prospect, turned in an easily overlooked campaign: in 127 games with the club’s International League affiliate, Crawford batted .243/.351/.405 with 20 doubles, six triples, and a career high 15 homeruns, the first time he’s reached double-digit dingers since his first full season in the minor leagues. Crawford’s overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 14%. Long recognized as the club’s heir apparent to Jimmy Rollins’ throne at shortstop, the position is Crawford’s to lose in 2018 as the club sent incumbent starter Freddy Galvis to San Diego for prospect Enyel De Los Santos. Philadelphia promoted the young middle infielder up to the big leagues in early September for a trial run in an effort to get his feet wet; Crawford, for his part, struggled mightily, batting a lowly .214/.356/.300 with just five extra-base hits in 87 plate appearances.

Projection: Here’s what I wrote about the promising shortstop in the 2016 Handbook:

“Crawford was the only qualified 20-year-old hitter in the Eastern and one of just three in any Class AA level. But here’s something more impressive, a list of players younger than 21-years-old in Class to post a walk rate above 12% since 2006:

That’s it; five players in the last eight seasons. Ready to be impressed again? Good. Here’s a list ranking the players by their strikeout rate, lowest to highest:

P. Crawford, 11.1% Colby Rasmus, 19.4% Wil Myers, 20.9% Jon Singleton, 23.6% Travis Snider, 27.4%

Crawford has a well-rounded offensive toolkit: above-average speed, something in the range of 25 to 30 stolen bases, solid average power with 10- to 12-homeruns and 30+ doubles in his future, a walk rate that should settle in between 9.0% and 10.5%, with a hit tool capable of posting perennial .300 averages.”

And here’s what I wrote when I ranked him as the club’s top prospect in last year’s Handbook:

“Despite a bit of a down year from the young shortstop – his overall production with the IronPigs was 10% below the league average – there’s nothing to dissuade me from last year’s analysis when I pegged him as a 4.0- to 4.5-win player. He actually put together a very Crawford-like line during a 43-game stretch between June 11 and July 30, hitting .308/.369/.414, which also happens to be completely in line with his career numbers. One final note: according to Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics, Crawford’s been an above-average defender over the past two seasons.”

At this point there’s very little to add in terms of his individual skills. Instead, let’s see how Crawford’s numbers in the International League stack up against his peers, historically speaking. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, here’s a list of 22-year-old hitters to post a wRC+ mark between 110 and 120 in the International League (min. 350 PA): Andy Marte, Austin Jackson, Carlos Sanchez, Giovanny Urshela, and L.J. Hoes. Only Jackson, who owns a career 103 wRC+ mark in the big leagues, has been a capable starter.

Obviously, it’s not a ringing endorsement for Crawford’s future. So let’s take a different approach:

Since 2006, only three 22-year-old hitters have posted at least a 13% walk rate in the International League: Crawford, Jesse Winker, and Yoan Moncada, all three being widely recognized as Top 50 prospects.

Crawford’s an interesting case in prospect analysis. He’s performed well, without truly dominating, since entering Class AA three years ago. And it looks like he’s going to be a low average, high OBP, moderate power big leaguer – which is certainly valuable. But he’s no longer a lock to be a perennial All-Star contender. And don’t be surprised to see him struggle for a year or two in the big league before figuring things out, especially if he struggled against LHP like he did in 2017.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017

4. Jorge Alfaro, C

Background: It was a bit of an odd, rollercoaster-like year for the club’s top catching prospect. Alfaro, who was originally acquired with Nick Williams, Jerad Eickhoff, Jake Thompson, and Alec Asher from the Texas Rangers in exchange for ace Cole Hamels (as well as Jake Diekman and cash), began the year on a hot stretch in the International League: he batted an impressive .289/.316/.410 with seven doubles, two triples, and three homeruns across his first 40 games. But then his bat cooled considerably and he entered an offensive ice age for the next two-plus months; he batted a lowly .190/.267/.304 over his next 176 plate appearances. Then, with nothing to lose, the front office promoted him up to the big leagues and – for whatever reason – Alfaro rediscovered his stroke, slugging an impressive .318/.360/.514 over his next 29 games. For his eight-year minor league career, the 6-foot-2, 225-pound backstop owns a solid .262/.321/.427 with 135 doubles, 20 triples, and 74 homeruns in 634 total games.

Projection: Here’s what I wrote about the Columbian catcher when I ranked him as the club’s fifth best prospect in last year’s Handbook:

“Defense and power – that’s the name of Alfaro’s game. Last year he gunned down 44% of would be base stealers and paced all Class AA catchers with 15 homeruns. The walk rates will definitely limit his ceiling, but, again, [MLB] is so bereft of catching talent that he could easily be one of the game’s better backstops within two years.”

One season later and it’s still the same thing, unsurprisingly: Alfaro, according to Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics, has been a +21 defender behind the plate over his past two minor league seasons. He also caught one-third of the potential base thieves with the IronPigs in 2017 as well. Defensively speaking, he could be one of the better backstops in the majors. Clearly. Offensively speaking, he’s a lock to slug 20 homeruns with the Phillies. But, again, his low walk rates will significantly depress his value – a la Kansas City’s Salvador Perez.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2016

Background: Tucked away in the shadows of another two-way player, Brendan McKay from the University of Louisville, Haseley – nonetheless – is forced people to take note of his work on both sides of the ball for the Virginia Cavaliers in 2017. As a true freshman three years ago, the 6-foot-1, 195-pound southpaw/center fielder hit a mediocre .250/.355/.322 with 11 doubles, a trio of triples, and one dinger. On the mound, he appeared in 11 games, five of which were starts, throwing a combined 28.2 innings with 17 strikeouts and 11 walks en route to tallying a 2.20 ERA. The Florida native followed that up with a breakout year on both sides of the ball in 2016: he slugged a robust .304/.377/.502 with 19 doubles, six triples, six homeruns, and three stolen bases; as a hurler he tossed 78.0 innings, the second most innings behind 2016 second round pick Connor Jones, with a ho-hum 48-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with a 1.73 ERA. Haseley spent the following summer playing for the Orleans Firebirds of the Cape Cod League. In 41 games, he batted .266/.352/.392 with seven doubles, one triple, and three homeruns. He failed to make an appearance on the mound though. Last season, as with many of the draft class’s top juniors, he elevated his production level. In 58 games for Head Coach Brian O’Conner, Haseley set career bests in batting average (.390), on-base percentage (.491), slugging percentage (.659), homeruns (14), stolen bases (10), strikeout-to-walk rate (21-to-44), and strikeout rate while on the mound (7.30 K/9).

Philadelphia, in a break from the organization’s draft mantra, selected the collegiate outfielder with the eighth overall pick last June. Haseley’s selection marked the first time since 2000 that they grabbed a collegiate hitter in the opening round. That collegiate bat chosen in 2000, by the way, was none other than Chase Utley. After coming to terms with the franchise on a deal worth $5.1 million, roughly $400,000 more than the recommended slot bonus, Haseley split his professional debut between the Gulf Coast, New York-Penn, and South Atlantic Leagues, slugging a combined .284/.357/.405 with 13 doubles, two triples, and three homeruns. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 26%.

Projection: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about the University of Virginia stud heading into last year’s draft:

“Unlike his two-way counterpart at Louisville, there’s very little debate that his long term future is already decided. He’s a solid Division I pitcher, one that would likely get a few sniffs around the middle rounds, but his patience and developing power make him a potential Top 10 pick come June. Similarly with nearly every other notable Virginia hitting prospect, Haseley displays an impeccable feel for the strike zone. He’s currently sporting a career 103-to-111 strikeout-to-walk ratio and he’s walked in over 15% of his plate appearances in 2017. The power’s ticked up from a slightly below-average skill set to one that profiles as a 15-homer threat in the professional ranks. Whether or not he can hack it in center field given his lack of blistering speed, is an entirely different question.

Consider the following little tidbit:

Since 2011, here’s a list of collegiate hitters that have hit at least .380/.470/.650 with a strikeout rate below 10% and a walk rate of at least 14% (minimum 200 PA): Adam Haseley (who currently exceeds each of those thresholds at the time of this writing).

Haseley looks like a slightly lesser version of former Razorback outfielder (and current Red Sox stud) Andrew Benintendi. As far as ceiling goes, his is a .290/.360/.430.”

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

6. Adonis Medina, RHP

Background: Overshadowed by some of the more recognizable arms the system was developing with the BlueClaws last season. Medina, nonetheless, was one of the farm’s more pleasant surprises in 2017. The wiry right-hander had a string of three seasons where his strikeout numbers ranged from poor to mediocre. Last year, however, the 6-foot-1, 185-pound hurler easily surpassed his previous career high as he averaged 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings. Medina made a career high 22 starts in the South Atlantic League, throwing 119.2 innings with an impeccable 119-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He finished the year with a 3.01 ERA, a 3.34 FIP, a 3.37 xFIP, and a 3.40 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

Projection: According to a July 17th report by Matt Gelb of The Philadelphia Inquirer, Medina admitted that a tweaked slider led to the surge in strikeouts. And it was one helluva surge. Consider the following:

Only one 20-year-old pitcher – Paolo Espino – met the following criteria in the South Atlantic League between 2006 and 2014 (min. 100 IP): 25-27% strikeout percentage and a walk percentage between 6.5-8.5%.

Espino’s largely been a Quad-A type arm, though he finally cracked a big league roster for the first time in his career last season. Medina’s arsenal suggests something along the lines of a potential mid-rotation starting pitcher, though he’ll need to avoid the impending injury nexus. Espino, on the other hand, showed an 88 mph fastball during his debut.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

7. Cornelius Randolph, LF

Background: Fun Fact Part I: Five of the top 10 selections from the loaded 2015 draft have already made it to the big leagues – Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi, Carson Fulmer, and Ian Happ. Fun Fact Part II: Of the three high school players – Brendan Rodgers, Kyle Tucker, and Cornelius Randolph – taken among the top 10 picks, only Randolph has yet to face off against Class AA pitching. Fun Fact Part III: Randolph’s alma mater, Griffin High School, has produced two other highly touted prospects – Tim Beckham, the top pick in the 2008 draft, and Telvin Nash, a third round pick a year later. Fun Fact Part IV: Randolph was one of just three 20-year-old qualified hitters in the Florida State League last season; the other two being Ke’Bryan Hayes and Alejandro Salazar. Fun Fact Part V: Of the aforementioned group of 20-year-olds in the FSL last season, Randolph’s overall production paced the group.

Standing a rock solid 5-foot-11 and 205 pounds, the lefty-swinging left fielder appeared in a career-high 122 games with the Clearwater Threshers, hitting a solid .250/.338/.402 with 18 doubles, five triples, and 13 homeruns. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 18%.

Projection: Going back to Fun Fact Part II, if it weren’t for an early season shoulder injury, which knocked him out for a couple months two years ago, there’s a distinct possibility that Randolph would have sniffed at least a handful of game in Class AA in 2017. Here’s what I wrote about the former first round pick when I ranked him as the club’s third best prospect in last year’s Handbook:

“So there’s an awful lot going on here in terms of noise vs. meaningful data. Randolph was getting his first taste of full season ball and, of course, the shoulder injury – both of which certainly depress his overall production line (.264/.347/.343). But digging deeper into the numbers, it’s easy to see the promise of the lefty-swinging outfielder. Strong plate discipline: he posted 57-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Glimpses of power – especially near the end of the year. Some speed. And despite all the obstacles he faced in 2016, his overall production topped the league average mark by 10%. I expect him to have one of the better minor league seasons in 2017.”

Outside of a vacuum, Randolph’s production line wasn’t among the minors’ finest showings last season. However, after a bit of an adjustment period at the start of the year – he batted .188/.279/.328 over his first 34 games – Randolph made the proper adjustments and slugged .276/.362/.433 with a 134 wRC+ over his final 88 contests. He has struggled a bit against fellow southpaws, so that bears watching as he moves up the minor league ladder.

Finally, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, only one 20-year-old hitter – Jorge Polanco – posted a wRC+ between 115 and 125 with a double-digit walk rate in the Florida State League (min. 350 PA). Polanco, by the way, owns a 95 wRC+ through his first 211 big league games.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

8. Scott Kingery, 2B

Background: From looking completely lost in the Eastern League in the second half of 2016 to transforming into the second-coming of Babe Ruth in a do-over in the first half of 2017. Kingery, who batted a lowly .250/.273/.333 in a 37-game cameo with Reading two years ago, rebounded – hugely – by slugging a robust .313/.379/.608 with 18 doubles, five triples, and 18 homeruns through his first 69 games. His production in Class AA last season, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a whopping 66%. The Philadelphia front office bumped him up to the minors’ final stop, Class AAA, late June and, quite predictably, his bat cooled considerably (though he still hit a respectable.294/.337/.449 in 63 games with the IronPigs). Overall, Kingery, a second round pick out of the University of Arizona in 2015, slugged an aggregate .304/.359/.530 with 29 doubles while setting career highs in triples (eight) and homeruns (26). He also swiped 29 bags in just 34 total tries. His finished the year with an impressive 143 wRC+.

Projection: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about the small-ish second baseman heading into the 2015 draft:

“Kingery spent his first two seasons with the Wildcats showcasing a better-than-average eye at the plate, but he’s showing far less patience this season, walking in just over 5% of his trips to the plate [at the time of the writing]. That number will likely jump back up to around 7.5% to 8.0% in the professional ranks. A little bit of speed, not a whole lot of power despite the .515 career slugging percentage, but a strong hit tool. In terms of absolute upside, think Dustin Pedroia 2014 – .278/.337/.376. Roughly a league-average offensive performer, but that comes with the risk of his production being so inflated by his home park.”

And here’s what I wrote about him when I ranked him as the club’s eleventh best prospect in last year’s Handbook:

“I still think the initial analysis holds true: doubles power, decent-ish eye at the plate, solid hit tool, and a .278/.337/.376-type ceiling. Kingery actually got off to a blistering start in the Eastern League, going 17-for-53 in his first 12 games. Expect him to head back to Class AA and then finish up in the International League. A late-September call-up seems like a long-shot, but it’s possible I guess.”

Reading’s home park is incredibly, incredibly hitter-friendly. Just in recent seasons, homeruns totals by both Dylan Cozens and Rhys Hoskins exploded during their time with the Class AA affiliate. However! However, Kingery’s home/road splits in the Eastern League varied by a slight margin, not as much as one would suspect: .317/.375/.620 (home) vs. .309/.383/.596 (road). Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2014, here’s the list of 23-year-olds to post a 150 wRC+ or greater in the Eastern League (min. 250 PA): Carlos Santana, Casper Wells, Chih-Hsien Chiang, Luke Hughes, Michael A. Taylor, Michael Taylor, Ryan Strieby, and Sean Ratliff.

Santana, Wells, Hughes, A. Taylor, and Taylor have big league experience. And here are their respective career wRC+ totals in the big leagues: 123 (Santana), 93 (Wells), 67 (Hughes), A. Taylor (83), and 36 (Taylor).

Obviously, Santana, who posted the best plate discipline by a huge margin in Class AA, is the outlier.

Now consider his production in the International League, historically speaking:

Between 2006 and 2014, here’s the list of 23-year-olds to post a wRC+ mark between 115 and 125 in the International League (min. 250) with their respective career wRC+ in the big leagues: Yonder Alonso (107), Lars Anderson (28), Martin Prado (107), Cesar Hernandez (101), and Zach Walters (67).

Again, among both studies there are roughly four league average-ish bats, which is – as I forecasted three years ago – the ceiling in which Kingery is likely to peak. Throw in some solid defense and he should be a better-than-average second baseman.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

9. Enyel De Los Santos, RHP

Background: Acquired from the Padres this offseason for veteran infielder Freddy Galvis. De Los Santos, who didn’t make his professional debut until he was 19-years-old, has continued to quickly, efficiently move through the minor leagues. Last season the lanky 6-foot-3, 170-pound right-hander spent the entirety of the year working out of the rotation for the San Antonio Missions in the Texas League. In a career high 150.0 innings of work, De Los Santos posted another strong strikeout-to-walk ratio, 138-to-38, en route to tallying a 3.78 ERA, a 3.64 FIP, a 3.72 xFIP, and a borderline dominant 2.51 DRA (Deserved Run Average). For his three-year professional career, De Los Santos is averaging an impressive 8.3 strikeouts against just 2.8 walks per nine innings with a 3.70 ERA.

Projection: De Los Santos has moved around quite a bit consider the short duration of his professional career. The Mariners, who originally unearthed the Dominican-born fire-baller, shipped him to San Diego after his debut season in exchange for veteran right-hander Joaquin Benoit. And then, of course, San Diego shipped him to Philly for veteran infielder Freddy Galvis two years later.

I originally ranked him as the Mariners’ tenth best prospect following his debut, writing:

“Signed for a measly $15,000 out of the Dominican Republic in July 2014, De Los Santos is proving to be quite the impressive little find. He’s tall, lanky, and made quick work out of both low level stops last season. The sample size is only slightly bigger than the typical incoming rookie, but he’s certainly one to watch in the coming years.”

A couple years later he remains very interesting. He’s always shown a strong feel for the strike zone and his swing-and-miss percentage crept back up in Class AA after a down year. But there’s a ton of sneaky upside here. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, only three 21-year-old pitchers – Zach Davies, Jameson Taillon, and Jon Niese – met the following criteria in the Eastern League (min. 100 IP): 21.5-23.5% strikeout percentage with a 6.5-8.5% walk percentage.

Davies, in just two big league seasons, totaled 5.5 wins above replacement for the Brewers. Taillon earned 2.9 fWAR in 25 starts last season for the Pirates. And, of course, Niese was a reliable league average starter before slowing down a couple years ago. Don’t be shocked to look up in a year or three and see De Los Santos sporting some quietly impressive numbers, though he may be homer-prone in Philadelphia’s home park.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

10. Thomas Eshelman, RHP

Background: One of my all-time favorite collegiate arms. Not because of his dominance, though, but because he’s such an intriguing case study. Eshelman was as efficient pitcher as there ever was – or likely will be. Across 376.1 career innings with Cal State Fullerton, the 6-foot-3, 210-pound right-hander coughed up just 18 free passes – or an average of 0.43 walks per nine innings. And his high level of success continued in the minor leagues, spanning two different organizations – Houston and Philadelphia – and 281.0 career innings. Last season Eshelman, who was originally drafted in the second round and later traded to the Phillies as part of the Ken Giles swap, spent time between Reading and Lehigh Valley last season, throwing a career best 150.0 innings with an absurd 102-to-18 strikeout to walk ratio. Eshelman tallied a 2.40 ERA and a 3.55 FIP.

Projection: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about Eshelman heading into the 2015 draft:

“He’s not overpowering so he’ll likely get overlooked by some of the bigger arms in the class (Walker Buehler, Dillon Tate, Phil Bickford, Carson Fulmer, Michael Matuella), but Eshelman is a safe, fast-moving back-of-the-rotation caliber arm that could easily be in the big leagues within a season-plus of the draft.

Something to watch when he does make his pro debut: groundball totals. If Eshelman proves to be an above-average worm-burner, watch out. In terms of big league comparison, think Cincinnati’s Mike Leake.”

And here’s what I wrote when I ranked him as the Phillies’ sixth best prospect in last year’s Handbook:

“And I still think he’s going be a very reliable big league starter, despite the ho-hum 5.00+ ERA in the Eastern League. And here’s why:

It’s important to remember that when he made the jump to Class AA, easily the minors’ biggest test, Eshelman had around 70.0 innings between that and his work in college. Talk about a fast development curve (like I suggested two years ago).

Four clunkers with the Fightin’ Phils really, really skewed his overall numbers. So let’s break it down… The four clunkers: 14.1 IP and 23 ER. The rest of his stint in Class AA: 47 IP, 12 ER, and a 2.30 ERA.

Even with the clunkers thrown in, his overall FIP in Class AA was a strong 3.29. Plus, he suffered from a poor .373 BABIP.

Convinced yet? You should be… Think of him as a lesser version of Aaron Nola, although not by much.”

So let’s update that a bit? With respect to his work in the International League last season, consider the following:

Since 3006, here’s a list of 23-year-old to post sub-3.0% walk percentage in the International League (min. 100 IP): Thomas Eshelman.

Expanding the walk percentage a bit, here’s the list of 23-year-olds to post a sub-4.0% walk percentage in the International League (min. 100 IP): Eshelman, Kevin Slowey, Adam Wilk, Josh Banks, Justin Germano, and Yonny Chirinos.

Slowey was a league average starter before his career was derailed by injuries. Wilk was the prototypical soft-tossing southpaw with a below-average fastball and had a couple cups of big league coffee. Banks and Germano are essentially the right-handed version of Wilk. And Chirinos is still developing in the minors. Obviously, the line between success and failure isn’t great for pinpoint artists. But Eshelman is going to be the outlier. Pencil him in as a strong #4/#5 starter for the next decade-plus. He’s going to be a Josh Tomlin-like clone.

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player

Risk: Low

MLB ETA: 2018

Author’s Note: All statistics mentioned were gathered from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, ClayDavenport.com, or Baseball Prospectus.