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The stamp issue, however, has been ironed out, according to multiple licensed producers the Financial Post has spoken to over the last couple of months, including Aurora Cannabis and Canopy Growth Corp.

“It seems to me, sheerly based on official government data, that the flow out of the door is smaller than the amount of raw cannabis supply they have,” said Armstrong.

“But I think perhaps this is unsurprising given that up until October 2018, the industry was medical, so they were sending out tiny packages of product through Canada Post and suddenly have to deliver truckloads of cannabis,” Armstrong added.

The latest financials from both Canopy and Aurora, two of the biggest licensed producers in Canada, say that they are currently each achieving an annual “run-rate” of up to 70,000 kg of cannabis.

Aurora has stated that when all its production facilities are fully-licensed and growing at capacity, it will have the potential of scaling up to 500,000 kg. Canopy doesn’t provide a total estimate of production capacity based on quantity, but it is currently only utilizing one-fifth of its total production space on a square footage basis, based on an analysis of its latest financial statements.

Aphria Inc, another large grower, says that it will be able to reach a capacity of 255,000 kg by the end of 2019, while Quebec-based Hexo Corp. has projected an annual run-rate of 108,000 kilograms by the end of the year.

If those target numbers are actually met, meeting domestic recreational and medical demand will most certainly not be a problem, if one were to base demand on Health Canada’s projections.

“Something’s definitely going on with getting supply to consumers, that’s one of the possibilities, but I’m pretty sure this will all eventually get resolved,” Armstrong said.

“But I don’t think the problem is with licensed producers not ramping up. It appears to be somewhere else in the supply chain,” he concluded.