The Fire under Paunovic have routinely played a 4-2-3-1, though they frequently switch to a 5-3-2 when defending a lead. They also ran out a 3-5-2 in the attack at times, with Schweinsteiger dropping deep between the two center backs to control the ball out of the back, and the fullbacks getting high up the field. The lack of a number 10 meant their 4-2-3-1 wasn't wholly conventional - often they played with three more defensive center mids, or a second forward in the hole behind Nikolic. They will likely continue to stick with those options in 2018.

Goalkeepers

Richie Sanchez joined the Fire at the end of 2017, and made two solid starts. Since they moved Lampson, it looks like they trust the 23-year old Sanchez to be their guy in 2018. He did save more than a goal above expected, but, with a very small sample size sticking with Sanchez is a risky move that carries with it some uncertainty.

Backing Sanchez up will be Stefan Cleveland. Cleveland was loaned to USL affiliate Tulsa for his rookie season, where he made only two appearances.

Defenders

The starting fullbacks will likely be Brandon Vincent and Matt Polster, though Polster is dealing with an injury that has kept him out of preseason action so far. Vincent is a more traditional fullback - a good one-on-one defender who can hit in a cross. Polster plays a bit more unconventionally. His development in year two as a right back will be fun to watch. Behind them is Rafael Ramos, who came over from Orlando City in a trade for Cam Lindley’s homegrown rights. Ramos only saw 55 minutes of game time in 2017 after 1015 in 2016, but if he can develop further he could push Polster for starts.

Johan Kappelhof, the MVP of the defense over the last two seasons, will start at center back. Kappelhof is a good passer (3% above expected in the Fire’s own third), and also led the team in tackles and interceptions. The spot next to him is a bit less certain. From preseason it looks like Christian Dean will start in week one. Dean, the third overall pick in 2013, has never lacked talent, but he has had issues staying healthy. He made three starts with the Fire last year after joining in August, before a broken foot ended his season. Lillard will challenge Dean for that spot, though he will probably need time to adjust to the league. A center back partner for Kappelhof remains a position of need.

Midfield

Bastian Schweinsteiger and Dax McCarty will start in the middle. Both were tremendous in 2017. Schweinsteiger does a bit more in the attack - he put up 0.25 xG + xA per 90 to Dax’s 0.15, while McCarty does a bit more on the defensive side of the ball - 2.2 tackles per game to Schweinsteiger’s 1.7. Both and incredibly important to the team’s buildup - they were 3rd and 4th in the league in xB.

Their backups will be a combination of Mo Adams, Drew Conner, and, once he gets healthy, Djordje Mihailovic. Mihailovic, a 19-year old homegrown, played 700 promising minutes before tearing his ACL in the Fire’s playoff game.

Katai and Luis Solignac will likely start on the wings. Solignac scored seven goals to go with four assists in 2017, his best year yet in MLS. He only took about two shots per game, but those shots were of decently high quality - 0.13 xG on average. The average xG of a shot on which he provided the key pass was 0.12 xG, so he both creates and gets chances in dangerous positions.

Daniel Johnson, if he can stay healthy, may be the first off the bench out wide. Johnson played 125 highly entertaining minutes last season before a knee injury from which he found it difficult to regain his form knocked him off track. Johnson attempted 5.7 dribbles per 90 in his eight appearances, a number which over the course of a season puts him in the company of Ignacio Piatti, Justin Meram, and Lucho Acosta. His passing, over small sample sizes, was far above expected across the board (he completed his passes at a rate 10 points better than expected in the final third).

The number 10 role, in lieu of an additional signing, will probably go to Jon Bakero.

Forwards

Golden boot winner Nemanja Nikolic will be expected to continue his goal-scoring form. It should be noted that he played all 34 games in 2017, which is a resiliency that shouldn’t necessarily expect to be repeated. The forward line looks a bit thin behind Nikolic. Alan Gordon is currently in on trial, and he would be a smart signing. Solignac can play up top if need be. Michael de Leeuw is a fantastic option there, in a 2nd forward role, or on the wing, but he ruptured his ACL in October and likely won’t be back until August.

2018 Expectations

As it stands now, the Fire are optimistically only a fringe playoff team - Toronto, Atlanta, NYCFC, and Orlando are all clearly ahead of them. The Red Bulls and Columbus are too. More likely they end up between 7th and 9th. Chicago are thin, and they’re a couple difference makers short of where the top teams are at.

In a different light, this offseason could be spun as a youth movement. Placing some responsibility on Bakero, Adams, Sanchez, Lillard, and Johnson, not to mention the minutes already going to Polster and Vincent, could be seen as a bold and risky decision to embrace youth. That it hasn’t been spun this way by Nelson Rodriguez suggests the front office is trying to make moves, and it doesn’t signal a positive 2018 that so far they’ve struck out.