The 2020 race is now well underway. Every day brings fresh developments; just this morning, democratic socialist Bernie Sanders entered the fray. With over 10 Democrats already announcing exploratory committees, or committing to a run, and several big-hitters still expected to throw their hat in the ring, this election cycle looks to be the busiest in recent memory, even eclipsing the famously crowded Republican Primary of 2016. For political junkies, the next two years promises to be entertaining, if nothing else.

The leaders of America’s closest allies might disagree, however. In 2016, American voters (and the world) were bowled over when they woke on the morning of November 9th to discover the real-estate mogul had proved every naysayer wrong and beaten Hillary Clinton to the White House. America’s allies are praying that it doesn’t happen again. Unlike Clinton, whose presidency would’ve followed a predictable trajectory familiar to policymakers in Sydney, Paris, or Madrid, Donald Trump had spent the campaign tearing into the post-war foreign-policy consensus. America’s relationships with the developed-democratic world were not alliances, but deals — and bad ones, too.

Trump has attacked the frugality of his NATO partners for their defense spending, even spontaneously suggesting that allies should spend 4 percent instead of the agreed 2 percent, much to the chagrin of other leaders whose style is not to spar in front of the cameras and make policy on the hoof à la Trump. The president has threatened trade wars, and has consistently framed the European Union as a global rival to the United States (akin to how previous presidents have viewed China and the Russian Federation). Multilateral meetings with Western allies demand constant attention to Trump’s ego. Yet despite overtures to accommodate his profound narcissism, Trump continues to frame America’s alliances as transactions — not partnerships.

Until the night of the election, the leaders of NATO and the EU will have no choice but to stand by and watch the contest unfold. While the instinct to intervene in the debate will be strong — plenty of leaders would no doubt like to pour scorn on Trump, as he has done to them — the cleverest among them will know this is just as likely to help as it is to damage him. President Obama’s pro-EU intervention in the UK’s Brexit debate in 2016 is widely believed to have helped the Leave campaign win victory, even though 91 percent of Brits approved of his time in the White House. The simple fact is, people don’t like being told what to do by others — even by friends.

Obama was not perfect. His “natural tendency of chairing meetings, even if he [was] not the official chair,” according to Herman Van Rompuy, former President of the European Council, irked many of his allies. His rush to propose solutions on behalf of those who would have to carry them out seemed, to many, typical of America’s arrogance. Obama had what Trump didn’t, however: a profound love of books and knowledge that brought with it an appreciation of Europe’s history. Obama’s ability to spin that into stirring rhetoric in service of the Western world’s common values won him many friends, and convinced most to overlook his foibles. Obama also wasn’t George W. Bush, which helped.

There is a sense of urgency, too, about what many see as a closing era in European and Western politics — an age of adults in the room. The floodwaters of populism are splashing at Europe’s ankles, threatening — at a moment’s notice — to engulf the continent in a wave of introverted and recalcitrant politics. Italy, Hungary, and Poland have already succumbed. Austria is half way there and Scandinavia could be next. Trump’s reelection in 2020 could spell doom for the post-war consensus.

Europe’s titan, Angela Merkel, is committed to leaving the chancellery in 2021, and with her departure comes an inconceivable amount of instability. Having been at the top table of European politics since 2005 (the year Bush began his second term), Merkel has seen leaders and crises come and go. Her party’s new leader, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, another severe character in the mold of Merkel, is favorite to take over, but a general election stands in the way of the succession. After 16 straight years in power for their CDU party, victory is far from certain.

Diplomats and politicians are hopeful that, upon Merkel’s departure, she will continue to chair the Western alliance in the absence of American leadership. Preferably, as UN Secretary General, President of the EU Commission, or head of the 29-nation NATO alliance. This desperation at the sight of Merkel’s departure may speak to the fragility of Europe’s institutions — and the continent’s profound lack of confidence — more than anything else.

In France, the centrist wunderkind, Emmanuel Macron, looks increasingly likely to lose to a more radical and disruptive successor in 2022. Radical socialist Jean-Luc Melenchon and far-rightist Marine Le Pen are his most likely successors at the time of writing. Both display worldviews that are as dubious about the Western alliance as Trump’s. Although they come from radically different political traditions, both are profoundly skeptical of the European Union and its drive towards increasing centralization. Both, too, would look to re-visit the web of international norms and agreements that bind the Western world together, much like Trump.

The country’s Gilets Jaunes (“Yellow Jacket”) movement is a mish-mash of far-left, far-left, and anti-establishment anger, lacking in coherence and without a defined set of goals. Despite this, the rage is palpable, and Macron has so far tied with his predecessor, the Socialist Francois Hollande, as the most disliked French president in history. Europe has always functioned best when Franco-German relations are at their warmest. The replacement of Macron with someone less dedicated to the preservation of Europe could bring chaos.

If reports of a surprise election in the UK are to be believed, another far-leftist with no truck for the West’s military and economic alliances, Jeremy Corbyn, could be Prime Minister by the end of the year. That’s without factoring in Brexit, the biggest upset in European politics since the fall of the Berlin Wall, and a development that leaves the European Union weakened, and the U.S. without a key ally in the room.

The West and its institutions are in dire need of reform and reinvigoration. The European Union’s fracture along East-West and North-South lines look set to continue without end; Russia is deploying its power in ever more nefarious ways; and China is intent on folding the entirety of Asia (and beyond) into its sphere of influence. It is in the best interest of the world that these developments are checked by a strong alliance of democratic nations — the West; America’s traditional allies.

Western leaders and policymakers (for the most part) know this. It’s why it is absolutely crucial that Trump fails in his bid for reelection next year. The world cannot take another four years of America retreating from its role as leader of the free world; it matters now more than ever. So, if you see a leader of a Western country blue in the face, please don’t panic. They’re holding their breath, and for good reason.