Description

The pre-election polls significantly under-estimated the size of the Conservative lead over Labour at the 2015 General Election, with nearly all the final polls calling the ‘horse race’ as a dead heat. The failure to predict the Conservative lead in the vote share has led many commentators to question the value and robustness of polling methodology, with some prominent figures even calling for polls to be banned in the final weeks preceding an election. In response to these events, the British Polling Council and the Market Research Society instigated an independent inquiry into the causes of the discrepancy between the final polls and the election result, chaired by Professor Patrick Sturgis of the University of Southampton. In this half day event at the Royal Statistical Society, the polling inquiry panel will present their findings and preliminary conclusions about the factors which led to the polling miss. Agenda:

13.00 Registration opens (coffee/tea)

14.00 Welcome and overview of the Inquiry, Patrick Sturgis, University of Southampton

14.15 Presentation of preliminary findings by the inquiry team

15.15 Q&A from the floor

16.00 Close