Major League Soccer announced on Wednesday that Minnesota United will become the league’s 23rd franchise three years from now, beginning play in the 2018 season. The already vibrant community of Twin Cities soccer fans will be thrilled by this news, especially those within the city limits; Minnesota United, who currently play out at a sports complex in the northern suburb of Blaine, MN, will build a new, soccer-specific stadium in downtown Minneapolis. But beyond exciting football-loving residents in MPLS itself, what will the ramifications of this expansion be?

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Minnesota United & Miguel Ibarra’s Future

Minnesota United supporters knew about midfielder Miguel Ibarra long before he broke into the USMNT this year. Ibarra just missed making the Portland Timbers’ roster in 2012, the last player cut. Since then, he’s been the man at Minnesota, who were still known as the Stars when he arrived. Regardless of the team’s name change, since moving from Portland, Ibarra’s star has been in ascension.

Now that his team, too, is set to ascend from NASL into MLS in 2018, are they in a better position to hold onto their young star midfielder? Might Ibarra stay with the prospect of top flight soccer on the horizon?

Not likely, if still possible. Ibarra has two years left on his contract, meaning he’d still need to sign a new deal in order to stay in Minnesota through the beginning of their maiden MLS campaign. Those two years, however, might seem long for a player whose stock is high at the moment, and whose paycheck is likely to be significantly higher at an MLS club than it is in NASL, despite his star status in Minnesota.

ESPN has reported that, according to MN’s front office, “the club won’t stand in his way” should Ibarra decide he wants to pursue opportunities elsewhere, but also, that they have yet to receive an offer for their talisman. With the club willing to sell, albeit for a fair price, and Ibarra fully aware that his earning potential will be far higher—as well as the prestige of the league in which he plays his game—his departure at the end of this season seems likely.

The one thing that remains to be seen is Ibarra’s loyalty to Minnesota United. Should he decide to leave, the midfielder must be forgiven as anything but a turncoat; he’s given Minnesota 3 of his best years, and it’s not as if he’d head to a league rival within the NASL. But, that said, Minnesota did give Ibarra the opportunity of his career, and it was MUFC that provided him the platform from which he seized a place in the USMNT.

Ibarra is, in many ways, in an enviable position. Should he leave his post at Minnesota, few could fault him, and he’s likely find an open door should he wish to return once they’ve qualified for the MLS. If he chooses to stay, on the other hand, he will be lauded as a remarkably loyal footballer—rare these days, it must be said. In the last analysis, I would be surprised if Miguel Ibarra is playing in Blaine, MN next season, but if he is, he deserves our admiration for staying with the club who gave him his shot.

Who, What, When, Where?: MUFC’s Impact on MLS Conferences

MLS has confirmed that they both hope to add a 24th team by 2020, and would consider expanding to an even larger number of teams in the years that follow. This begs a question, however, as to just where MUFC would fall within the league; would they play in the Eastern or Western Conference? To accommodate this year’s two new expansion teams in the Eastern Conference, Orlando City and NYC FC, Sporting Kansas City moved to the West for the 2015 season. With Atlanta and Miami already slated to join up in 2017, the (mid-)West seems Minnesota’s obvious choice.

But how much reshuffling are MLS franchises comfortable with? In 2017, as with this season, two more teams in the “far east” of the US will enter the fold, Atlanta and Miami. If the league follows suit with this season, moving a midwestern squad, or even two (e.g. Chicago Fire or Columbus Crew) to the West in order to accommodate the addition, then what will happen with Minnesota’s addition the following year? Will Minnesota, a team to the west of both Chicago and Columbus, play in the East? Will one franchise or the other be forced to flip-flop, spending 2016 in the East, 2017 in the West, only to return to the East in 2018?

The league is right to pursue expansion aggressively. The quality of the product on offer is on the rise, and investors smartly recognize the potential for growth in both ticket sales and TV revenue in the coming decade. But the league also needs to do right by the organizations that already are in the fold, the teams that, after all, helped build this league in the first place.

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Minnesota United FC: First Year Contender?

This season’s MLS debutantes, NYCFC and Orlando City, are in first and third place in the East, respectively. With NYCFC destined to only get stronger with the addition of Frank Lampard this summer (should Manchester City deign to let him play for the club he’s actually under contract with…), and with Kaka showing he still has a place among the world’s best midfielders, both teams appear poised for playoff runs, early as the season is.

Could Minnesota United do the same in 2018?

In a word, no. The current MUFC ownership is in negotiations with a handful of additional investors for their MLS expansion, but even so, the team is likely to have less sugar from their daddies—and is certain to enter a league with a very, very different landscape—than Orlando and the especially sugary New York City.

As both a former Twin Cities resident (I’ll never forget watching Landon Donovan’s goal against Algeria in the 2010 World Cup at the Nomad World Pub in Minneapolis), and a fan of international football, I hope both that MUFC and MLS grow in the coming years. But it is the latter that has momentum, while the former remains only in the offing. Whether they are in the East, or the West, MUFC is likely to struggle in their inaugural campaign—the growing pains of most new franchises.

Still, Minnesota has an x-factor here: their fan base. Back in the 1970’s, the old NASL team in MN drew crowds in excess of 40,000. If—or, in my opinion, when—that sort of support can be mobilized for the MLS franchise, MUFC will have the fan support to make players want to play in Minneapolis, and the ticket revenue to help pay them. Will they sign a David Villa or Frank Lampard right off the bat? Unlikely. Will they prove, in the footsteps of the NASL-promoted Portland Timbers, that grassroots team growth provides a more satisfying ‘product,’ by providing a more satisfying community? Absolutely.