By Daniel “Tafokints” Lee

We’re just a week out from Evo 2016, but trying to pick the Super Smash Bros. Melee favorite heading into the event is difficult at best.

The events at WTFox 2, which wrapped up on July 3, makes it even more confusing. In an odd sequence of events, Joseph “Mango” Marquez won the tournament without dropping a single set, Adam “Armada” Lindgren noticeably struggled in bracket, and Juan “Hungrybox” Debiedma finished in fifth, his worst placing this year.

Looking back further into 2016 doesn’t clarify much. Armada ended 2015 with a well-deserved first place on the annual SSBMRank, but the gap between him and everyone else has shrunk considerably. Hungrybox has been dominant with seven majors wins this year, Mango has been incredibly consistent, and Leffen has shown flashes of greatness despite the general lack of practice. Going into Evo 2016, how do the four best players in the world stack up?

View photos Juan “Hungrybox” Debiedma at CEO 2016 (Rose Silvestre) More

Hungrybox

If you told me a year ago that Hungrybox would win seven majors by Evo, I would have laughed in your face. Yet, here we are in July, and Hungrybox has been mostly unstoppable. Most players retain good records because of their low sample size and their hesitancy to travel when they feel less than 100%, but Hungrybox has traveled to far more events than anyone else and logs multiple wins over players that once gave him trouble. In fact, prior to WTFox2 , he was undefeated against everyone below the Top 4 on the 2015 SSBMRank.

Rank Player Score 1 Hungrybox 2363 2 Armada 2351 3 Mang0 2318 4 Leffen 2288 5 Mew2King 2178

Table 1: Glicko Ratings (Aug 2015 – Present / Data courtesy @moby_osman)

Quantitative measures also favor Hungrybox as the best of the bunch. Glicko ratings examine a player’s match history and assigns a predictive rating with some degree of variance. His consistency against the field and overall record against elite talent has given him the slight edge over Armada. His stellar record, large sample size, and major wins are all sound arguments for putting him in first even with a poor performance at WTFox 2.

View photos Adam “Armada” Lindgren (Adam Lindgren) More

Armada

Armada has travelled to fewer events, largely due to the fact that he lives in Europe, but he’s outperformed Hungrybox in three out of five of them and has a better head-to-head record. Sometimes, Armada’s excellence is taken for granted because of how long he’s been a stellar player. While Hungrybox has been amazing in 2016, Armada has performed at that level for years.

Considering how reluctant Smash fans were to remove Mango from the throne last year, it’s also important to consider how much work Armada has done before handing the crown to Hungrybox. From the second half of 2015 to 2016, Armada won Evo 2015, The Big House 5, Genesis 3, and both Smash Summits. While Armada has underperformed (by his standards) in recent tournaments, he has always shown up at the events that matter the most.

View photos Joseph “Mango” Marquez (Cloud9) More

Mango

Mango has been lurking in the shadows with seven second place finishes in 2016. It’s unusual to describe him as “consistent,” however, especially when looking at his overall career. His 2015 included a 17th place finish at HTC Throwdown, among several other lackluster performances, but his 2016 has been remarkable. It’s interesting to see how quickly people forget that Mango was the heavy favorite at most events just two years ago.

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