Germany has a problem in Brussels: a German president of the European Commission.

The nomination of former German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen in July was seen by many in the EU capital as the icing on the cake for a country long accustomed to having its voice well-represented in European policymaking.

Instead, as she settles into office this week, German officials, lawmakers and lobbyists in Brussels and Berlin say they are bracing for a significant loss of influence.

It’s not just that von der Leyen has had a bumpy start — though controversies over the titles she assigned to her commissioners, and her apparent miscalculations of the political dynamics in the European Parliament, have indeed raised doubts about her ability protect the independence of the Commission from strong-willed national leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron.

More concretely, it’s the worry that, as the first German president of the Commission in more than 50 years, von der Leyen will be under intense pressure to be perceived as a neutral “guardian of the treaties.”

“We will clearly miss the German commissioner" — Daniel Caspary, head of Germany’s CDU in the European Parliament

“Von der Leyen doesn’t want to be seen as the pushy German,” said Judy Dempsey, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank. “She wants to be European first. Her speeches are all about this.”

With von der Leyen taking up the presidency, Germany this time around will not have a commissioner — a position held for the past decade by the former budget chief Günther Oettinger, an influential champion of German interests during his time in Brussels.

“Von der Leyen has a clear duty to keep the Commission together and to make compromise proposals,” said Daniel Caspary, head of Germany’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) group in the European Parliament. “We will clearly miss the German commissioner.”

Gerexit

As one of the EU’s founding members and the bloc’s largest economy, Germany has long played a dominant role in Brussels policymaking. That was especially true in the last years of the prior Commission, when German Chancellor Angela Merkel enjoyed a close relationship with President Jean-Claude Juncker, Oettinger held the budget portfolio and his countryman Martin Selmayr — nicknamed the "Monster of the Berlaymont" for his domineering behavior as Juncker’s chief of staff — was promoted to become secretary-general, the institution’s top civil servant.

Selmayr was closely involved in negotiations on an EU deal for the German road toll, which critics said was discriminatory because it essentially targeted foreign drivers, not Germans. Despite this criticism, Selmayr pushed for a deal between the Commission and Berlin that was reached in 2016 but overruled in June by the EU Court of Justice because of a violation of the bloc’s anti-discrimination laws.

Oettinger — who has launched a shadow campaign to become president of the German car lobby VDA after his Commission job — repeatedly faced criticism in past years for having mainly the German carmakers’ interests in mind, for example when it comes to EU rules on emission standards.

Now with Juncker and Oettinger leaving, and Selmayr having moved to Vienna to become the Commission’s representative to Austria, Germans in Brussels are looking for ways to make up for their departures.

“It would be all the more important for the German government to take an early cross-party position on European issues in order to then effectively promote its interests here in Brussels,” Caspary said.

The question is whether Berlin is up to the task. Even as Germany prepares to take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU in July next year, it finds itself hamstrung by a lame-duck chancellor and a fragile government that has largely paralyzed its engagement on the European stage.

Infighting in the grand coalition between the CDU and the Social Democrats (SPD) led to embarrassment in July, when the chancellor’s coalition partners forced her to abstain on the nomination of von der Leyen, the candidate from her own country, even as every other EU leader voted in favor.

“‘I’m taking the German vote’ has become a synonym for abstaining in Council decisions,” said one German official, who asked not be named.

"This is of course something where we have been pampered over the last few years" — Gunther Krichbaum, senior CDU lawmaker

More recently, Germany’s political handicap was on full display when von der Leyen’s successor as defense minister, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, proposed a plan for Syria that immediately fell flat due to public disagreement between the governing parties.

At the weekend, the Social Democrats elected a new leadership duo who have expressed skepticism about continuing as junior partners in Merkel's coalition government.

Speaking to POLITICO in a recent interview, Oettinger warned that Berlin’s “really impressive” influence in EU politics “could come into some problems” because of political instability at home.

Under-representation

In his interview, Oettinger explained how he and former European Parliament President Martin Schulz, as “the most prominent Germans in Brussels or Strasbourg,” made themselves available to Germans looking for a foothold in the EU institutions. “Our thing was to be present if anybody wants to meet us,” Oettinger said.

He added that von der Leyen would “maybe not so often” be available to listen to German concerns.

Gunther Krichbaum, a senior CDU lawmaker and chair of the Bundestag’s committee for European affairs, said that with Oettinger, Germany was losing an important point person in Brussels: “He had an incredibly strong presence, was always there for getting information or appointments. This is of course something where we have been pampered over the last few years.”

Although commissioners are officially supposed to leave national interests aside when they take up their posts, the reality is that as politicians they are frequently attuned to the needs and desires of their former (and possibly future) constituents back home.

Oettinger was regarded by many in Berlin and Brussels as an important voice for Germany, using his position to champion national interests — for the car industry as energy commissioner, for German publishers when he held the digital portfolio and for all sorts of areas as a powerful influencer during his time as budget commissioner.

“He was the number one go-to-person in Brussels,” said one business representative, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the topic. “It will certainly be more difficult to be heard in the Commission.”

To keep some German influence at the higher echelon of the Commission, von der Leyen has pushed to install Oettinger’s influential head of cabinet, Michael Hager, as chief of staff of Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis. Germans are also expected to serve as heads of cabinet for Transport Commissioner Adina-Ioana Vălean and the Commission president herself.

People close to Thierry Breton, the commissioner in charge of the internal market portfolio, denied reporting by POLITICO that he has appointed another German as his chief of cabinet.

Part of Germany’s challenge, according to Berlin, is that the country’s reputation for influence has been overblown.

“There are many myths about German personnel influence in the Commission,” said a senior German EU diplomat. “If you look closely at the figures, you will see that Germany is under-represented in comparison with other large member states, especially at the Commission’s management levels.”

“If there are too few representatives from Germany, then the position of Germany actually suffers. This is definitely a danger at the moment" — Monika Hohlmeier, Bavarian MEP

Apart from Sabine Weyand, the Commission’s director general for trade, Germany currently holds no leading positions in the institution’s civil service — other than in minor departments like the Internal Audit Service or the Publication Office. When it comes to directors general capable of influencing policy decisions, even some smaller countries like Sweden or the Netherlands have more than Germany.

A recent report by the Court of Auditors found that after Brexit, German will become the least represented nationality in the Commission once population is taken into account.

Monika Hohlmeier, a Bavarian MEP from the Christian Social Union (CSU), said Berlin was not creating enough incentives for top officials to move to Brussels.

“The German government should take a strategic look at the vacancies — what will become vacant in the next few years — and specifically assign civil servants to strategically important areas, like France does, for example,” she said. “If there are too few representatives from Germany, then the position of Germany actually suffers. This is definitely a danger at the moment.”

Leaning on Länder

As German influence comes under siege, some in Brussels are hoping that a castle behind the European Parliament will serve as an important stronghold.

The Bavarian representation, situated in the spectacular building of the former Institut Pasteur du Brabant, is the most impressive example of the manpower and experience that the 16 German regional states — the Bundesländer — bring to Brussels.

Unlike most regional representations in Brussels, the Bundesländer are seldom content to confine themselves to a few office rooms; they’re more likely to own entire buildings, whose size and presence rival some national delegations.

Equipped with legislative autonomy under the German constitution, they are sometimes allowed to participate as observers in Council discussions, including on Brexit. Oettinger described them as “regional embassies” that will “of course” take over some of his job of representing German interests.

“The presence of the Ländervertretungen shows the aspiration to literally fly the flag here and to be taken seriously,” said Bodo Lehmann, leader of the Baden-Württemberg state representation. “One thing are the buildings, the second the human resources, and the third the financial resources that one is prepared to spend on the presence in Brussels,” he added.

The federal states are happy to splurge on organizing policy dialogues or popular society gatherings like the Bavarian Oktoberfest, the Hessian Weinfest and Baden-Württemberg’s New Year reception. This has allowed them to build up a contact network in Brussels that could now come in handy.

“I can imagine that some companies, associations or NGOs will now approach us as an important counterpart for contacts in the Commission,” said Hans Stein, head of the representation for North Rhine-Westphalia.

However, ultimately it was Berlin’s task to step up engagement in the EU, he said: “Germany exerts far less influence than it could.”

Presidency problems

Germany’s weakness in the EU capital comes at a critical time for policymaking, as the Commission sets out its legislative agenda for the next five years and national governments dicker over the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), which will determine EU spending for the next seven years.

These challenges are also looming over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, which Germany takes over in July.

Merkel said recently that the top priority of the presidency should be to forge a common EU position on China, including a flagship EU-China summit in Leipzig next fall that brings together all EU leaders and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Germany’s goal is to create a more assertive stance on trade and industrial and competition policy that would better equip European companies as they compete with emerging Chinese rivals.

That alone is a complex task that will face resistance both from within the Commission and from other EU countries. On top of that, the German presidency will likely have to deal with a stream of legislative proposals stemming from von der Leyen’s ambitious agenda, including action on climate protection and a new migration policy. The political battles regarding her proposals can be expected to kick off during the second half of next year, just as the Germans take over in the Council.

Ahead of that, Berlin will want to use as much of what is left of its leverage in the Commission to influence these proposals before they are even made. “Of course, it is very important to us to be in close contact with the new Commission and to prepare [the presidency] properly,” Merkel said at a press conference following a meeting with von der Leyen in Berlin last month.

The giant money battle over the MFF is another potential headache for Germany, as it now looks increasingly unlikely that any big decisions will be made before Berlin takes charge.

“The big task that still hangs over everything is the MFF" — Angela Merkel, German chancellor

That could put Germany at a disadvantage in the talks, as it is a champion of a more frugal approach to the budget, but would be expected to take a more neutral position during its presidency.

Caspary, the CDU MEP, said he was concerned the whole German presidency would be overshadowed by a political fight over the budget: “Such a presidency can provide some impetus,” he said. “I am afraid, however, that we will rather be in a situation in which Germany cannot make any major proposals at all, because all other states will enjoy the fact that the decision on the MFF will have to be taken under the German Council presidency, with a German president of the Commission.”

Merkel, during her press conference with von der Leyen, did not mince her words: “The big task that still hangs over everything is the MFF,” she said. “We hope ... that Germany will have nothing to do with it.”

This article has been updated.