What will applauding the Russian president’s response to Barack Obama’s expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats mean when Trump takes office?

Trump praises Putin over US sanctions – a move that puts him at odds with GOP

Trump praises Putin over US sanctions – a move that puts him at odds with GOP

After the Obama administration’s tough new sanctions against Russia put the president-elect in a vulnerable political position at home, in his own party and abroad, Donald Trump chose to respond in familiar fashion – with praise for Vladimir Putin.

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The president-elect has repeatedly spoken approvingly of Putin and called for closer relations with Russia. On Friday, he used Twitter to applaud Putin’s restrained response to the expulsion by the US of 35 diplomats and the closure of two Russian compounds.

Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) Great move on delay (by V. Putin) - I always knew he was very smart!

The tweet, like many from Trump that seem calculated to shock and offend, caused a predictable media furore. However, it probably will have done nothing to alleviate the difficult political position in which Trump now finds himself.

The president-elect has been consistently skeptical about the US intelligence consensus that Russia ordered cyber-attacks on Democratic party targets as a way to influence the 2016 election in his favor – the reason for Obama’s new sanctions. At one point, he suggested the culprit might have been China, another state or even a 400lb man in his bedroom.

On taking office in January, Trump might therefore be expected to simply end the Obama sanctions. And as president, he could do so; presidential orders can simply be repealed by the executive branch.

But the situation is not that simple. If Trump did choose to remove the sanctions, he would find himself at odds with his own party. Senior Republicans in Congress responded to the Obama sanctions by identifying Russia as a major geopolitical foe and criticizing the new measures only as a case of too little too late. Some promised a push for further measures in Congress.

Trump may therefore choose not to reverse the new sanctions. If so, he will find himself at odds with the man he so constantly praises.

On Friday, the Kremlin responded to the moves, including the expulsion of 35 suspected intelligence operatives and the closing of two Russian facilities in the US, with a shrug. Putin, it seems, is willing simply to wait until Trump moves into the Oval Office. Trump’s tweet suggested he is too.

But such provocative words could not distract the media and public from another domestic concern for Trump – the growing perception that his predecessor has acted to his disadvantage.

“The sanctions were clearly an attempt by the Obama administration to throw a wrench into – or [to] box in – the next administration’s relationship with Russia,” said Boris Zilberman, a Russia expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

“Putin, in part, saw through that and sidestepped it by playing good cop to [Russian foreign minister Sergey] Lavrov and the [state] Duma, who were calling for a reciprocal response.”

Trump will also face pressure from intelligence agencies, which have concluded that Moscow ordered the election cyber-attacks.

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“There is now a public record of what Russia did and why they did it,” said Zachary Goldman, executive director of New York University Law School’s Center on Law and Security, referring to a joint Department of Homeland Security and FBI report issued on Thursday.

“Even if the sanctions can be unwound, you can’t make that public statement go away.”

Goldman also noted an international element to the situation facing Trump. It is important to note, he said, that the new executive order enables Obama and his successors to take retaliatory action against efforts to influence elections held by “allies and partners”. Germany and France will hold elections in 2017.

On a call with reporters on Thursday, a senior White House official said the US had “every indication” that Russia would continue to pursue such cyber-attacks.



‘All Americans should be alarmed by Russia’s actions’

On the same call, officials expressed confidence that the political risk of appearing to cave in to Moscow would prevent any future administration from unwinding the sanctions.



“If a future president decided that he wanted to allow in a large tranche of Russian intelligence agents, presumably a future president could invite that action,” a senior official said.

“We think it would be inadvisable. As my colleague just said, these diplomatic compounds were being used for intelligence purposes. That is a direct challenge to US national security, and I don’t think it would make much sense to reopen Russian intelligence compounds.”

In his own statement, President Obama said: “All Americans should be alarmed by Russia’s actions.”

In response, Trump repeated his contention that the issue should be left behind, that Americans should be able to “get on with our lives”. But he did agree to meet intelligence officials next week, to be “updated on the facts”.

In a transition team call on Friday, the incoming White House press secretary, Sean Spicer, did not give details of when that meeting would take place or who would attend. No talks were planned with Moscow, he said.

Underlining the challenges awaiting Trump in his own party, most senior Republicans criticized the Obama administration only for acting too slowly.

On Thursday, the Arizona senator John McCain and South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham said in a joint statement: “The retaliatory measures announced by the Obama administration today are long overdue.

“But ultimately, they are a small price for Russia to pay for its brazen attack on American democracy. We intend to lead the effort in the new Congress to impose stronger sanctions on Russia.”

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The Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, agreed, saying: “The Russians are not our friends. And clearly the Obama administration has not yet dissuaded them from attempting to breach our cybersecurity systems, or harass our diplomats in Moscow.”

On Friday, it was reported that McCain, a member of the Senate armed services committee, had scheduled a hearing on foreign cyber threats for 5 January, and called senior intelligence officials to testify.

Analysts were also concerned not with whether the sanctions should have been imposed at all, but rather whether the White House had acted quickly enough, and whether its eventual response was strong enough.

“The sanctions are targeted, not sectoral, and will have a very limited impact,” said Thomas Wright, a fellow and director of the Project on International Order and Strategy at the Brookings Institute. “This will not deter Putin from interfering in French or German elections in 2017.”

Though the strength, timing and effect of the new sanctions are contested, Trump faces a bipartisan consensus. Domestically, any attempt to remove Obama’s sanctions against Russia will be a political non-starter.