Deeper cuts through the 2020s to meet the Paris target will depend on governments supporting further expansion

This article is more than 10 months old

This article is more than 10 months old

Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions will stop rising and gradually start to fall over the next three years as the country feels the effects of the recent renewable energy boom, engineering researchers say.

Academics from the Australian National University estimate national emissions will dip by 3%-4% by 2022, ending the year-on-year increases recorded since the abolition of the carbon price scheme.

But they found deeper emissions cuts through the 2020s to meet the target set under the Paris climate agreement would depend on the federal and, to a lesser extent, state governments supporting further expansion of solar and wind by ensuring adequate new electricity transmission and storage.

The new electricity boom: renewable energy makes staggering leap but can it last? Read more

Andrew Blakers, a professor of engineering, said a policy briefing published on Thursday, co-authored with colleague Matthew Stocks, was a “message of hope” about reducing pollution at lowest cost.

“Solar and wind energy offers the cheapest way to make deep cuts in emissions because of their low and continually falling cost,” he said. “If the renewable energy pipeline is stopped or slowed because of insufficient transmission and storage, then emissions may rise again from 2022.”

While the call for improved transmission is near universal, Blakers and Stocks differ from most energy experts in placing relatively little weight on the need for government policy to continue to drive what has been a surge in clean energy investment since 2017.

The current boom is largely driven by the 2020 federal renewable energy target. It led to nearly 3.5 gigawatts of capacity being built last year, three times more than the year before. But the target, equivalent to about 23% of national electricity demand, has now been met, the Morrison government has not replaced it and there is evidence investment has slowed.

A growing number of businesses have signed renewable energy contracts independent of government support, but many analysts say the boom is unlikely to continue without a policy with bipartisan political support to drive the transformation to a cleaner grid.

Blakers said clean technology was so cheap that adequate government support for transmission and storage would be enough to deliver 50% renewable energy by 2024 and 75% by 2030. He said a national energy and emissions policy could lead to an even faster shift, but the change will happen regardless.

According to his analysis, Australia would meet its 2030 target set at Paris (a 26-28% cut in emissions compared with 2005 levels) without relying on controversial “carry-over credits” through cuts in emissions from electricity generation alone, even if emissions continued to rise across the rest of the economy, as projected. He believes the target should be increased.

“I think a lot of people are hooked up on energy policy but we’re doing very well as things stand. A neutral policy is enough to make it,” he said.

This contrasts with other analyses, including government projections, that found Australia was not likely to meet its emissions target under existing policies. Bill Hare, of research and science organisation Climate Analytics, said Blakers’ assessment of what it would take to meet the Paris target did not stack up.

Dylan McConnell, from the Australian-German Climate and Energy College, said Blakers was right to highlight the need for support for improved transmission but disagreed that renewable energy growth would continue at recent levels without policy backing.

He said investors were unlikely to sign contracts for new energy plants when wholesale energy prices were falling to zero during sunny periods. “Unless we have growing electricity demand, a coal exit or a policy ... to encourage renewable energy I can’t see it happening,” McConnell said.

Clean energy set to provide 35% of Australia's electricity within two years Read more

Tristan Edis, from consultancy Green Energy Markets, earlier this year found clean energy would provide 35% of Australia’s total electricity needs within two years as solar power transformed the national energy market.

But he said the pace was unlikely to continue as things stand. “We don’t see the economics of the energy market supporting significant levels of investment in large-scale wind and solar beyond this year without some sort of reward for greenhouse gas abatement.”

Blakers and Stocks recommend the establishment of renewable energy zones to overcome outdated transmission rules and significantly expanding interconnection between states, including the mooted second undersea cable between Tasmania and Victoria.