The military effort to defeat ISIL in Mosul is inextricably linked to the Iraqi government’s ability to regain the trust of the city’s civilian population. While verified abuses by Iraqi security forces against civilians should never be tolerated, there are good reasons to believe that ISIL is trying to manipulate accusations of abuse in order to undermine that trust.

On November 10th, Amnesty International issued a report claiming that up to 6 people had been killed in late October by men dressed in Iraqi federal police uniforms in the al-Shura and al-Qayyara sub-districts of Mosul province. A statement from the Federal Police denied that its forces had anything to do with the killings, and in a meeting with officials and representative from Mosul province on November 11th, Iraqi prime minister Haider Al-Abadi reacted strongly to Amnesty’s report, accusing the rights group of conveying “false information” and “creating fear among civilians” that could lead to further displacement.

A statement obtained exclusively from Prime Minister Al-Abadi reveals that his office had already looked into those claims last month: “I ordered an investigation immediately after receiving information, long before Amnesty raised the issue. There is a preliminary investigation underway which shows that what took place is not how Amnesty has portrayed it.”

“Iraqi authorities investigate every claim of human rights violations,” Al-Abadi added, “and Iraqi security forces have clear and strict instructions in this regard.”

Earlier that week, the United Nations’ special representative to Iraq, Jan Kubiš, briefed the Security Council in New York on progress to recapture Mosul from the clutches of ISIL. “We witness the birth of a new Iraq and its security forces, who are welcomed by civilians as liberators,” Kubiš affirmed. “[T]he liberation of Iraq is a fight of all Iraqis in their unity for the future of their country as the common house of all Iraqi people living together in justice, equality, peace and tolerance,” he added.

For many observers who have watched this messy war unfold over the past three years, that may sound like an overly optimistic outlook. But the campaign to retake Mosul is ostensibly a battle for hearts and minds. Clawing back neighbourhoods inch-by-inch, fighting off the incoming waves of suicide car bombs, and diffusing booby-trapped houses in a built-up urban environment – all while avoiding harm to civilians who are used as human shields – is a perilous and painstaking task. There is broad agreement that the success of these operations largely depends on winning over the trust and cooperation of local residents who are trapped under ISIL’s rule. Without that key dynamic – where security forces are perceived as liberators rather than occupiers - Iraqi forces will struggle to minimize both military and civilian casualties.

With Iraqi special forces now advancing into the eastern districts of the city, ISIL knows that its only hope is to continue to feed off past grievances and convince residents under their control that the advancing Iraqi forces are hell-bent on exacting revenge. On November 12th, a graphic video emerged online appearing to show a teenage boy being shot by Iraqi forces and then run over by an army tank. ISIL sympathizers on social media claimed this was yet another example of the sort of treatment that awaited the people of Mosul. But several observers have questioned the authenticity of the video, pointing to the possibility that the killing of the young boy was staged by ISIL.

Human Rights Watch’s spokesperson Belkis Wille told Al Jazeera: "I think we need to exercise extreme caution with videos like this," adding, "There is no flag on the tank in the video. That is a bit inconsistent with what I've seen on Iraqi force tanks…only one man in the video is wearing an Iraqi uniform, and there are no other armoured vehicles in the area."

Numerous videos posted by ISIL themselves showing targeted operations against government forces and civilians have illustrated how their fighters often wear Iraqi army and police uniforms and use captured military vehicles as a means to infiltrate check points and catch their targets off-guard. While there is no denying that on occasions, Iraqis fighting on behalf of the government have been guilty of serious abuses on the battlefield, it is important to “exercise extreme caution” before jumping to conclusions. If allegations do in fact turn out to be faked by ISIL, then journalists and human rights groups risk inadvertently playing up their propaganda.

On the day of the Amnesty report, the United Nations confirmed that two atrocities had been committed by ISIL just days earlier, where some 60 people accused of “treason and collaboration” with Iraqi security forces were executed in Mosul. ISIL hanged 40 civilians dressed in orange clothes marked with the words ‘traitors and agents of ISF’. The following day another 20 people were rounded up and shot dead under similar circumstances.

Both the Iraqi government and ISIL know too well that the outcome of this war will hinge on how they are perceived by local residents. There are many lessons to be learned from Fallujah, Tikrit and Ramadi; one of them is to never underestimate the lengths that ISIL will go to incite fear among locals towards advancing Iraqi forces. For that reason, while it is incumbent on the government to show zero tolerance towards verified abuses, it is equally important for rights groups and journalists to be extra cautious when dealing with accusations of abuse.