Democratic strategists said they have seen a remarkable decline in support for Sen. Bob Menendez as his Republican opponent poured $36 million into his campaign. | AP Photo New Jersey Democrats sound alarm over Menendez race

New Jersey Democrats are growing increasingly worried that Sen. Bob Menendez could lose his seat next week in an outcome that would undercut the party’s effort to take back the Senate.

Democratic strategists working on races across the state said in interviews that they have seen a remarkable decline in support for Menendez as his Republican opponent — former pharmaceutical executive Bob Hugin — poured $36 million of his own wealth into his campaign. Hugin has used much of the money to run a seemingly endless stream of negative campaign ads. Even as public opinion polls show the senator up by double digits, some insiders say a post-summer boost, hoped for by team Menendez, never arrived.


Hugin’s relentless attacks, which took a dark turn the last three weeks, have chipped away at the scandal-scarred senator’s standing with suburban voters and women, some strategists said. Menendez, running in a state that has 900,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, is now struggling to hold on to areas where he should have massive support, some said. In several competitive congressional districts, internal polls show votes for Menendez running far behind support for a generic Democrat, one strategist said.

As Menendez’s aides insists they’re “confident” he’ll win, some allies are openly admitting things may not turn out as planned, saying the massive advertising campaign on the other side has been difficult to overcome.

“I think the race is a toss-up,” Loretta Weinberg, the Democratic majority leader of the state Senate, said in an interview. “I think it’s a fight, and we’re all in to continue fighting up until 8 p.m. on Election Day.”

Now, with three days until the election, Menendez is swinging wildly at his opponent, linking him to President Donald Trump, former Republican Gov. Chris Christie and even suggesting — falsely and without evidence — that Hugin was fired under questionable circumstances by investment bank JPMorgan nearly two decades ago. He’s furiously working to get out his base, cranking up the urban turnout machine with the help of Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and others.

All of that is playing out as national Democrats are dumping some $7 million into a state that hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972.

A year after Menendez successfully weathered a high-profile federal corruption trial, New Jersey’s senior senator finds himself again in another battle for political survival.

Hugin — the former CEO of biotech company Celgene — has raised just shy of $39 million, with all but $3 million coming from his own pocket. He gave his campaign $8.5 million in just the last two weeks. A super PAC with ties to Christie has spent more than $5 million on ads to help Hugin.

Menendez, who has to rely on donors, has raised just short of $12 million. He’s received a boost from two super PACs that have spent a combined $4.4 million to help him, and the Senate Majority PAC — a super PAC tied to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer — has spent about $7 million on the race.

Every public opinion poll has shown Menendez in the lead. And, to be sure, many Democrats think the senator will be just fine. But only in recent weeks has Hugin aired two commercials that dredge up old, anonymous and unsubstantiated allegations that Menendez solicited underage prostitutes in the Dominican Republic.

One of the ads, “Her,” shows a woman holding a baby girl as images of disgraced Hollywood mogul Harvey Weinstein flash on a TV screen. A female narrator describes the accusation and, as an image of Menendez appears on a tablet computer with the baby in the background, declares, “I’ll never be able to explain a vote for him, to her.”

The weaponization of the allegation in the final weeks before the election has made it difficult for Menendez to fight back against the attack, which he labeled the “desperate” act of a “slimeball” and a “liar.”

Months of ads had reminded voters about the trial in which Menendez was accused of carrying out official favors for a Florida eye doctor — now a convicted Medicare fraudster — in exchange for campaign cash, private jet flights and lavish Dominican vacations.

Some Democratic operatives say there’s no doubt the attacks have worked. One strategist said Menendez spent the month of October “trying to hold on and just trying to survive.”

The operatives, who are involved in the state Democratic politics, all spoke on condition of anonymity to candidly discuss the state of the race in the days leading up to the Nov. 6 election and so as to not anger Mendendez.

Another operative said Hugin’s final swings at Menendez are an effort to “chop his legs out from under him.”

“They’re running a very, very, very good campaign, and Menendez seems to be just hoping this is over,” the second Democrat said. “I think there’s a significant chance he could lose.”

Much of the Democratic hand-wringing is based on internal polls that people who are privy to them describe as showing a narrowing race. Internal polls conducted in at least four congressional districts where Democrats are hoping to pick up seats — New Jersey’s 2nd, 3rd, 7th and 11th — have shown Menendez with support that’s more than 10 percent lower than that given a “generic” Democrat, according to one strategist who called the numbers “brutal.”

Public polls haven’t reflected that. While a Stockton University poll released in early October showed Menendez leading Hugin by just 2 points, a Monmouth University poll showed Menendez leading by 9. A new Stockton poll released Friday, based on a sample that was younger and less white than the earlier survey, showed Menendez up 12 points. Other public polls have been somewhere in between.

Still, there’s clear distaste for Menendez among many of those surveyed, with just 23 percent in the latest Stockton poll saying they have a favorable view of him and 44 percent having an unfavorable view. Such feelings were expressed in the June primary when Menendez’s unfunded and virtually unknown Democratic challenger, Lisa McCormick, got 38 percent of the vote and won several rural counties.

One problem for Menendez is that some of the largest concentrations of Democratic voters are located in congressional districts that don’t have competitive House races. Those include Newark, Jersey City, Paterson and Elizabeth — the state’s largest cities.

Without a competitive House race to worry about, there’s a fear some voters may stay home. If that happens at the same time voters in the state’s competitive, suburban congressional districts decide they just can’t vote for Menendez, it could be game over for the Democrat, some say.

“If the big cities don’t show up in real numbers, that’s how this thing is lost,” the first strategist said.

While Mendendez’s staff say many events happening now were planned out months ago, it’s clear there’s a focus on driving the urban voters to the polls. On Oct. 30, Menendez held a rally at an African Methodist Episcopal Church in New Brunswick and another rally with seniors in East Orange, a small city near Newark where 97 percent of the population is black or Hispanic.

Booker, the former mayor of Newark and a likely 2020 presidential candidate, attended both events and delivered a rousing sermon on the need to vote, quoting Martin Luther King, invoking former President Barack Obama and blaming voters who didn’t turn out for Christie being elected governor in the state.

Democrats say Menendez is absolutely focused on driving up turnout numbers in such Democratic strongholds, as opposed to focusing end-of-campaign events on the state’s unaffiliated voters, who number nearly 2.4 million — more than all Democrats statewide.

“He’s playing to his base. That’s it. That’s the game plan. It’s not that complex,” said LeRoy Jones, the Democratic chairman of Essex County, where Newark and East Orange are located. “You go to your heart. You go to your core.”

Jones believe Menendez will win. So do the senator’s campaign aides, who also say his focus on driving out the base hasn’t come at the expense of efforts to target suburban voters through policy-focused ads and events.

Menendez is scheduled to campaign with Gov. Phil Murphy, Lt. Gov. Sheila Oliver and Booker in the closing days of the race and plans to hold public events in five cities and four suburbs over the weekend.

“We feel very confident in the senator’s position right now,” Steve Sandberg, a spokesman for the campaign, said. “We believe that New Jersey voters, when they go to the polls, are ultimately going to judge Bob Menendez on his entire record of delivering for this state and improving the lives of its residents.”

But Menendez also seems to be throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks and, in one instance, has turned to a Trump-like tactic to stir up controversy. He has repeatedly tweeted over the last week about Hugin’s departure from JPMorgan in 1999.

“Bob Hugin touts his record for taking a job at Celgene—a failing company with only 6 weeks of cash left,” Menendez tweeted on Oct. 28. “Isn’t it strange that @BobHugin, with a lucrative job at J.P. Morgan, suddenly left to take a job that no one else wanted? Why did you really leave? #Questions4Hugin #NJSen.”

But Hugin’s campaign provided a disclosure form, filed with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, that shows Hugin left as part of a “job restructuring.” The company would be required to disclose if Hugin had been fired or had any securities violations.

“The fact that Bob Menendez — a 25-year incumbent — has spent the last few days talking about this with just 5 days to go tells you everything you need to know about how close this race is,” Nick Iacovella, a spokesman for the Hugin campaign, said in a statement.