International affairs

Iran nuclear deal, 15 January



We should know by mid-January how serious Donald Trump is about seeking a confrontation with Iran over its nuclear programme. The US president refused in October to continue to certify the 2015 multilateral agreement under which Tehran accepted strict curbs on its activities in return for sanctions relief.

Trump said that either Congress or US allies should fix the “serious flaws” in the deal, or he would “terminate it. The Senate has since opted out of dealing with the matter, and Washington’s allies have insisted that the 2015 agreement cannot be renegotiated.

If Trump refuses to sign a six-monthly presidential waiver due on 15 January, nuclear-related sanctions against Iran will no longer be suspended and the US will be in violation of agreement. The other signatories, including the UK, France, Germany, Russia and China, would then have to decide whether to try to carry on without the US or allow the agreement to collapse. Either way, the Trump administration would have taken a very significant step toward open confrontation.

Winter Olympics, 9 February

The Winter Olympics in South Korea will be both a festival of sport and a test of the increasingly fragile peace in the region.

If the war of words between Trump and the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, is defused, the Olympics could offer the opportunity for a thaw. Seoul has suggested a lull in joint manoeuvres with the US during the Games, potentially opening the way for dialogue.

Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, has been in a war of words with Donald Trump. Photograph: AP

If the two leaders are still playing nuclear chicken, there is a risk Kim might seek to spoil South Korea’s long-planned Games with nuclear or missile test, or another form of provocation. It could make for a very tense fortnight.

Ticket sales are low, but Britain’s 60-strong squad are feeling “bullish” about 10 to 12 realistic medal prospects, having won four in Sochi 2014. UK competitors include the snowboarders Katie Ormerod and Billy Morgan, the speed skating world champion Elise Christie, and Katie Summerhayes and James Woods in the ski slopestyle. Watch out too for three women who could be the stars of the Games. Nigeria’s bobsleigh team of Seun Adigun, Ngozi Onwumere and Akuoma Omeoga are close to securing a historic qualification. “It’s surreal,” says Adigun. “Nigeria have never had anyone in the Winter Olympics. The country’s excited to see that happen.”

Middle East peace process, February



President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is expected to produce a plan for Middle East peace. It is a goal that has eluded many would-be statesmen, so it is a daunting task for the 36-year-old real estate heir.

He does have something going for him. The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu feels beholden to Trump and could be willing to grant concessions that he would never have dreamed of offering to the previous US administration. The powerful if erratic Saudi crown prince, Mohamed bin Salman, is also happy to shatter precedents and tradition, and seemingly keen to make common cause with the US and Israel against Iran.

One possible outcome is a plan that falls far short of dreams of statehood and independence of most Palestinians, who will be under pressure to accept whatever is offered, while Israel and its partners prepare for a conflict with Tehran and its allies.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is likely to strengthen its grip on Syria, rebuilding Bashar al-Assad’s army and fielding proxy forces across the country as Russia withdraws.

Vladimir Putin celebrates his victory in Russia’s 2018 presidential election. Photograph: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

Russian elections, 18 March

Russia will hold a presidential election on a date chosen to mark the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea. The winner has not been in doubt since Vladimir Putin confirmed he would be standing for another six year term. By 2024, he will have been running Russia for 24 years.

There are no serious challengers to Putin extending his reign, but the election campaign will still provide a barometer of the level of discontent in the absence of any significant improvements in Russian living standards and the dwindling appeal of foreign wars.

South Sudan, 9 July

The mandate of the South Sudan’s president, Salva Kiir, and the country’s parliament expire under the transitional constitution, leaving a potentially dangerous vacuum.

There is no sign that South Sudan is ready for a vote, the opposition is in exile and little has been done to implement the 2015 peace agreement that froze its civil war. Conflict threatens to reignite in a country where 7.6 million people are dependent on aid as a result of decades of conflict and misrule.

Brazilian elections, 28 October

Brazil will seek to find its way out of a mire of political scandals and corruption when the second round of its presidential election take place. It will be the first popular vote since Michel Temer took over as president in the wake of the impeachment and removal of Dilma Rousseff.

Temer has just survived serious corruption allegations himself, but his popularity rating is in low single figures. The current favourite to win is the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but only if he takes part. That is in doubt because he faces a suspended sentence for money laundering and receiving bribes. If the sentence is upheld, he would be out of the race, which would be left wide open.

US mid-term elections, 6 November

The extraordinary Senate vote in Alabama gives a foretaste of the nationwide battle to come in the US mid-term elections, in which all 435 members of the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate face the electorate.

Mid-terms tend to be seen as a popular verdict on the presidency, Trump has record low approval ratings and Democrats feel that if they can win in Alabama they could win anywhere.

It is possible the Democrats could conquer the House if the anti-Trump wave is strong enough, but they face arithmetic problems in the Senate. Of the 33 seats up for election, Democrats and their allies are defending 25. To win the Senate they would have to fend off challenges there and capture two Republican seats in Arizona, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas, Utah or Wyoming. Julian Borger

UK

Brexit talks, January

If you thought the Brexit talks dragged on this year, just wait for the sequel in 2018. Phase two of the divorce negotiations starts in earnest in January once the European commission receives its mandate from other member states for discussing Britain’s future relationship with the EU.

Britain and the EU adopt their negotiating positions. Photograph: Virginia Mayo/AP

First on the agenda will be agreeing a transition phase to give everyone some more breathing room - and even longer to keep talking. Working out how long the country will need to spend in this purgatory could be harder. Theresa May has suggested two years, but the EU would prefer 21 months because it aligns with the budget calendar. Almost everyone else thinks it could take much longer.



The EU wants Downing Street to choose between a stripped-down free-trade agreement that covers trade in goods, like the bloc has with Canada, or an associate membership of the single market that includes cooperation on services, like it has with Norway. The UK would like the best of both, seeking bespoke tailoring rather than anything as grubby as an off-the-shelf suit.

Expect to hear lots more about Canada-plus and Norway-minus in the coming months, even if neither model ends up becoming a reality until long after the nation’s eyes have glazed over. Dan Roberts

Local elections, 3 May

Local elections on will see more than 150 boroughs, councils and authorities put some or all of their seats up for grabs. Much of the focus will invariably fall on the four metropolitan boroughs where all seats are being contested – Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester and Newcastle – and the 32 London boroughs.

The good news for May is that all the metropolitan areas and the bulk of the London ones are Labour-held anyway, so the Conservatives have little to lose. She might even hope for some advances, especially in Birmingham, centre of the West Midlands mayoralty, a prize narrowly and surprisingly won in 2017 by the Tory candidate Andy Street.

On the flipside, the general election saw Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour dominate many big city areas, particularly London, where it took four seats from the Conservatives and 54% of the vote, up 10% on 2015.

The elections will also include the first trial in England of asking voters to show ID, a scheme being piloted in five towns. This has prompted some controversy, and if there are complaints about voters being turned away, especially older or more vulnerable ones, expect a storm.

Royal wedding, 19 May

The future Duke and Duchess of Sussex? Photograph: Alexi Lubomirski/EPA

Spring will be busy for royal watchers, with Prince Harry set to marry Meghan Markle. The royal wedding will take place in St George’s Chapel at Windsor Castle and broadcasters from around the world set to record the moment that Hollywood meets the Windsors.

Harry is set to acquire a new title, and the smart money is on the couple becoming the Duke and Duchess of Sussex. Tradition dictates that male members of the royal family receive a title from the monarch on their wedding day, and Sussex happens to be vacant. The last duke was the sixth son of George III back in 1801. Other options include Albany, Clarence, Connaught, Cumberland, Teviotdale and Windsor.

The prince is also set to relinquish his position as fifth-in-line to the throne with the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge’s third child, due in April. Caroline Davies

Social care green paper, June/July



Damian Green – remember him? – announced the timing of the social care green paper in November in his then-cross departmental role as first secretary. Social care is the issue no one wants to grasp, for two simple reasons. The first is that the problem is always getting worse. An ageing population is living longer, but often with long-term health issues connected to sedentary lives and poor diets that require ever more outside assistance.

The second is that people are going to have to pay more for their care, which is not a popular notion. May’s sudden election U-turn happened because of negative reaction to the Tories’ initial proposal, which placed no cap on the amount people might have to provide themselves. A cap was soon added. It is into this political and demographic morass the ministers will need to delve again over the summer. It could be tricky.

Sport

Serena Williams plays Agnieszka Radwanska at the 2016 Australian Open. Photograph: Paul Crock/AFP/Getty Images

Tennis: Australian Open, Melbourne Park, 15-28 January

Serena Williams, who gave birth in September, is on the entry list, making Melbourne Park the first chance in 2018 for a Williams clash with Maria Sharapova, two years after the Russian’s failed doping test.

Sharapova’s 2017 memoir references her rival more than 100 times, including her “thick arms and thick legs”. Williams responded: “I just work hard, I was born with this badass body and I’m proud of it.”

The men’s event also looks promising. Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic all aim to come back strong from the injuries that blighted their 2017. In their path lies Roger Federer, who at 36 is chasing a 20th grand slam title.

Football: Uefa Nations League draw, 24 January

Good news, fans of complex formats. Football’s inaugural Nations League starts in 2018. The new Uefa tournament, designed to replace most friendlies, features all 55 Uefa nations in four leagues: 12 in Leagues A and B, 15 in C and 16 in D, based on coefficient rankings. England are in A, Wales, the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in B and Scotland in C.

Here’s where it gets more involved. At the draw, each league will be split into four mini-groups of three or four nations, who will play each other home and away from September. The sides finishing top of the four League A groups in June 2019 then compete to be overall winner via semis and a final, and there’s also promotion and relegation: four up, four down. The biggest incentive to take it seriously, however, is the backdoor offered into Euro 2020. Four places at the finals are reserved for the winners of playoffs between the winners of the 16 Nations League groups. Uefa’s promise? It will be “the rejuvenation of national team football”.

Boxing: George Groves v Chris Eubank Jr, Manchester Arena, 17 February

Chris Eubank Jr: ‘I am Mount Everest.’ Photograph: Shamil Tanna/The Guardian

Until schedules are firmed up for Anthony Joshua and Tyson Fury, expect the early-year hype to focus on Groves v Eubank Jr. The semi-final of the World Boxing Super Series, a new eight-man elimination competition, sold out in seven minutes without the need for a set-piece trash-talk press conference. They had one anyway. Groves, defending his WBA super-middleweight title, told Eubank Jr he was deluded and said: “No one who leaves himself wide open by throwing punches from his ankles can beat me.” Eubank, channelling his father, responded: “George, you cannot survive the fire I will bring down upon you. I’m a mountain and you’re not going to climb it. I am Mount Everest.”

The Commonwealth Games, Gold Coast, Australia, 4-15 April

Judo is out, basketball is back, women’s rugby sevens and beach volleyball are in for the first time and there are 38 para-sport medal events. England are throwing immense resources at defending their position on top of the table, with a team of 400 athletes and 250 support staff. Greg Rutherford, Katarina Johnson-Thompson and Dina Asher-Smith are among the big names in a 75-strong athletics squad.Watch out, too, for Usain Bolt, not back on the track but in talks over a possible “ambassadorial role”.

Football: World Cup, Russia, 14 June - 15 July

Germany and Brazil are the favourites, and England face the pressure of an easy draw - Group G games against Tunisia on 18 June, debutants Panama on 24 June and main threat Belgium on 28 June. It looks manageable, so it surely won’t be. “We’ve just come from two tournaments where Costa Rica knocked us out, and then Iceland,” says Gareth Southgate. “So it’d be folly for us not to be serious about it.” Watch out too for the official logo, mocked online for looking like an electric shaver or Nemo from Finding Nemo standing on his tail, and the mascot Zakivaka, meaning “the one who scores”. Fifa says: “This is a wolf who radiates fun, charm and confidence, but who also plays fair.”

Hockey: Women’s World Cup, London, 21 July-5 August

Another chance to feel that 2012 spirit, with mid-summer action from the Lee Valley Hockey and Tennis Centre in Stratford, the venue converted from the Paralympic Eton Manor site in 2014. Sixteen nations are taking part, and England, the world No2 team, are drawn in Pool B with the Asian champions India, the US and Ireland. England lost 1-0 to South Korea in the bronze-medal match of the Women’s Hockey World League final in November, but aim to channel the spirit of Team GB’s Rio 2016 gold medal-winning run.

Golf: the Ryder Cup, Paris, 28-30 September

It’s seven years since France won the right to host the Ryder Cup, a controversial call at the time. There was pressure on the committee to pick Spain’s bid as a tribute to Seve Ballesteros, who died days before the announcement, but the Albatros Course in the Paris suburb of Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines made more financial sense.

The US team head to Paris as defending champions and favourites, and captain Jim Furyk’s options looking formidable. Europe’s 12-man lineup will feature the top four on the European points list, the top four outside that quartet in the world rankings and four picks from the captain, Thomas Bjorn. Several rookies are in contention, including England’s Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton, Spain’s Jon Rahm and France’s Alexander Levy. Bjorn says: “I am trying to balance the captaincy with my friendships.” David Hills

Culture

The most ambitious arena show ever created? Photograph: Ollie Millington/Getty Images

Fast and Furious Live, January

Fans of the ludicrously over-the-top action movie franchise will be able to see the first live version, with 18 stunts being recreated for a high-octane arena tour featuring cars, lorries and a submarine. Its producers claim it will be one of the biggest and most ambitious arena shows ever created, up there with Cirque du Soleil’s reinvention of the circus..

Macbeth, National Theatre, Feburary

2018 will mark both 25 years since Macbeth was staged at the National Theatre and since its boss Rufus Norris directed a Shakespeare play. The 1993 Macbeth was poorly received. It became known as the “gas ring Macbeth” because of the blue flame ground lighting, and its director Richard Eyre said he was left feeling tarred and feathered by the reaction. Critics also deemed Peter Hall’s 1978 production a flop and symptomatic of the company’s lost direction. No pressure then on Norris, who has cast Rory Kinnear and Anne-Marie Duff.

Monet & Architecture, National Gallery, 9 April-29 July

There have been countless Monet shows over the decades, some would say too many. The National Gallery, however, says there has never been one devoted to his relationship with architecture, and boldly claims its exhibition will allow visitors to see Monet in an entirely new way. It promises to be genuinely exciting and will feature loans from public and private collections all over the world, many paintings coming to the UK for the first time.

Patrick Heron, Tate St Ives, 19 May-9 September

It may not look much from the outside, but for many Tate St Ives underground extension is a wonder to behold and a game changer for the museum. It gives more space and time on display for the gallery’s wonderful permanent collection and allows important temporary shows, not least a retrospective for one of the greatest British abstract artists, known for his joyful, life-enhancing vibrancy.

Royal Academy Summer Exhibition, 12 June-19 August

It is a British summer staple, as traditional as Wimbledon and disappointing weather. It’s fair to say it features artworks of varying quality, but 2018 marks the RA’s 250th anniversary and curators are promising a show like no other. There will also be an accompanying show looking back at the history of the largest open submission art exhibition in the world. It is part of a huge year for the RA as it opens its redevelopment, linking its two buildings, on 19 May.

Great North Exhibition, Newcastle-Gateshead, 22 June-9 September

Newcastle-Gateshead beat Blackpool, Bradford and Sheffield for the right to stage what is being billed as the “largest event in England in 2018”. The government is giving £5m, and £15m to a legacy fund. Full details have yet to be announced, but the best of northern art, design and innovation are promised over three hub venues - the Baltic, the Sage and the Great North Museum. Mark Brown

Fashion

Frida Kahlo’s vibrant personal collection will be exhibited outside Mexico for the first time at the V&A in London. Photograph: Alamy Stock Photo

The Met Ball, 7 May

Never an event to shy away from a provocative theme, the 2018 Met Ball and the accompanying exhibition at New York’s Metropolitan Museum of Art curated by Andrew Bolton, has already raised eyebrows with its title, Heavenly Bodies: Fashion and the Catholic Imagination. As the most famous and prestigious fancy-dress party on the fashion calendar, the night - which was profiled in the 2016 documentary The First Monday in May - will see the most influential figures in the industry come out to play. Bets are on to see who will, and who won’t, nail the dress code appropriately, and how effectively Bolton tackles the subject.

Frida Kahlo’s Wardrobe, V&A, 6 June-4 November

This vibrant personal collection has never been exhibited outside Mexico before and is slated to include not only clothes, accessories and jewellery, but also prosthetics, photographs and letters. Given that Kahlo is one of the most frequently referenced cultural and style influencers from the 20th century, the retrospective should make for a sweet summer afternoon.

Reebok x Victoria Beckham



Victoria Beckham is taking a leaf out of her old pal Sporty Spice’s book with her forthcoming collaboration with Reebok. Set to launch in late 2018, Beckham promises it will “challenge the traditional notions of fitness wear within a fashion context” and says has gone into partnership with the sports giant because of their shared mission to instil confidence in women. Girl power lives on. Morwenna Ferrier