Republican gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie, right, is at 48 percent while Democratic challenger Ralph Northam, left, is at 47 percent, according to a Monmouth University poll. | Steve Helber/AP Poll: Gillespie, Northam deadlocked in Virginia governor race

Three new public polls show next month’s Virginia gubernatorial race within the margin of error.

A Monmouth University poll — the most recently conducted of the surveys, all released Tuesday — shows Republican Ed Gillespie, a former Bush administration official and Republican National Committee chairman, in front of Democrat Ralph Northam, the commonwealth’s lieutenant governor, 48 percent to 47 percent.


Libertarian Cliff Hyra is at 3 percent, and 3 percent of likely voters are undecided.

Last month, Northam had a 5-point lead in Monmouth’s polling, 49 percent to 44 percent. The shifts in both candidates’ vote shares are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Taken together, the Monmouth poll — along with new surveys from two Virginia schools, Christopher Newport University and Roanoke College — point to a close race in the most closely watched election of 2017. Both parties are using the Virginia contest to test-drive messages and read tea leaves ahead of next year’s midterms, when 36 states will hold gubernatorial elections.

“This has never been more than a 5-point race in Monmouth’s polling, and that means either candidate has a very real shot at winning this thing,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Virginia voters are sharply divided along geographic lines, the Monmouth poll shows. Northam leads in Northern Virginia — defined as Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties, along with the independent cities contained therein — by a 2-to-1 margin, 64 percent to 32 percent. But farther west, in broad expanses of the commonwealth west of Interstate 95, Gillespie leads by a nearly identical margin, 64 percent to 31 percent.

“As the northern and western parts of Virginia revert to their partisan norms, the battle for swing voters will occur right down the I-95 corridor,” Murray said.

The Monmouth poll suggests Gillespie’s attacks — he has run television advertisements attacking Northam for what he says are the lieutenant governor’s lax policies on immigration and crime — have moved the needle. Asked which candidate they trust to handle crime, 40 percent of likely voters say Gillespie, compared to just 24 percent for Northam, a wider margin than last month.

The other two polls give Northam a slight lead. The Christopher Newport University poll shows Northam ahead of Gillespie, 48 percent to 44 percent. Hyra, the libertarian, is at 3 percent, and 5 percent are undecided.

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Northam’s lead has tightened from a week earlier, when the Democrat was ahead by 7 points, 49 percent to 42 percent.

The Roanoke College poll gives Northam a slightly larger, 6-point advantage, 50 percent to 44 percent. Hyra is at 2 percent, and 4 percent are undecided. Last month, Northam led Gillespie by 4 points, 47 percent to 43 percent.

Most polls throughout the general election have given Northam the edge. Without the Monmouth poll, but with the Christopher Newport and Roanoke surveys included, Northam leads the RealClearPolitics average by 5 points.

The Monmouth poll was conducted Oct. 12-16, surveying 408 likely voters. In order to be part of Monmouth’s samples, voters must have cast ballots in two of the past four elections, or be newly registered since January 2016.

The Christopher Newport poll was conducted Oct. 9-13, surveying 642 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Roanoke College surveyed 607 likely voters, contacted from a list of all registered voters, from Oct. 8-13. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

