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1. Mitch Keller, RHP

FB CB SL CH Command Overall 65 80 55 45 55 60

Background: The long,long time crown jewel of the Pirates’ farm system. Keller was originally selected in the second round of the 2014 draft, sandwiched between a couple of collegiate arms (Spencer Turnbull and Daniel Gossett). Keller, who’s older brother Jon once pitched in the Orioles’ system, hopped, skipped, and jumped through multiple levels at a time between 2016 and 2018. And that trend continued on through his 2019 campaign as well – except the hard-throwing right-hander reached the game’s pinnacle level, multiple times. The younger Keller began the year on a bit of a sour note – he allowed five runs and walked six in 8.2 innings across two brief starts – but quickly got on track and earned his first call up to Pittsburgh for the start of a second game in a doubleheader against Cincinnati. From then on through the remainder of the year the club’s top prospect would yo-yo between Indianapolis and the National League Central Division. In total, Keller would make 19 starts in the International League, throwing 103.2 innings with 123 strikeouts and 35 walks. He made an additional 11 starts with the Pirates, tossing 48.0 innings with a 65-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Scouting Report: The lack of a solid third offering was incredibly concerning to me, so much so in fact, that I listed Keller behind Oneil Cruz as the club’s top prospect heading into last season. But something happened over the winter. Something…career defining. Keller scrapped the crappy changeup – almost altogether – and developed an above-average slider that added a third swing-and-miss option to his repertoire. The slider’s tight with almost cutter-like movement at time, but his trust in the pitch matches that in his 80-grade curveball. In fact, he threw his slider with nearly double the frequency as his curveball – again, the best deuce in the minor leagues – during his stints in the big leagues. Love him. He’s going to win the Rookie of the Year and be on the short list of perennial Cy Young contender barring any career altering injuries.

Ceiling: 5.0-win player

Risk: Low toModerate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2019

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2. Oneil Cruz, SS

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 50/55 50/60 50/45 50 55 60

Background: Acquired along with right-hander Angel German from the Dodgers at the trade deadline three years ago, Cruz has blossomed into a bonafide blue chip prospect since entering the Pirates’ farm system. The 6-foot-7, 175-pound man-child slugged a healthy .286/.343/.488 with 25 doubles, seven triples, and 14 homeruns – as well as 11 stolen bases – in a return to Low Class A in 2018. Last season the Dominican infielder split time between the Florida State and Eastern Leagues, as well as spending roughly two months on the disabled list. In total, the budding star slugged an impressive .298/.356/.475 with 15 doubles, four triples, and eight homeruns in 73 games. And just for good measure: he swiped 11 bags in 15 attempts.

Scouting Report: Just for fun, here are his counting stats prorated over a full 162-game season: 33 doubles, nine triples, 18 homeruns, and 24 stolen bases. The big – pun intended – elephant in the room, obviously, is Cruz’s massive frame size. Standing 6-foot-7, not only would he become the tallest shortstop in big league history (according to Baseball Reference’s Play Index), but there’s only one player who’s played at least 25 games at the position who was 6-foot-5: Mike Morse, who lasted just one season as a shortstop for the Mariners. Cruz is just beginning to tap into his massive, plus power potential. There’s 30- to 35-homer thunder brewing in his bat. Above-average speed, OK-ish contact rates, above-average defense, and proven production against significantly older competition. Ke’Bryan Hayes is the long term answer at the hot corner. So Cruz will have to beat out former top prospect Cole Tucker for the starting shortstop gig. He could – and should – become a full fledged star, a potential face of the franchise. At his peak, Cruz looks like a .280/.350/.480 type hitter.

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

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Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 45/50 40/45 40 50+ 60 55

Background: Fun Fact: Hayes’ old man, Charlie, tied with Andy Benes for fifth in the 1989 National League Rookie of the Year Award, trailing Jerome Walton (the winner), Dwight Smith, Gregg Jefferies, and Derek Lilliquist. The younger Hayes, who patrols the same position as his father, was originally taken by the Pirates in the first round, 32nd overall, of the 2015 draft. Sandwiched between Chris Shaw and Nolan Watson, Hayes has handled a relatively aggressive promotion schedule. Last season the 6-foot-1, 210-pound third baseman – who often masquerades as the great Brooks Robinson – spent the entirety of the year in the International League, sans a three-game rehab stint in the New York-Penn League. In 110 games with the Indianapolis Indians, the slick fielding Hayes batted .265/.336/.415 with 30 doubles, two triples, and 10 homeruns while swiping 12 stolen bases in only 13 attempts. His overall production, per Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus, was 4% below the league average threshold.

Scouting Report: Hayes got off to a bit of a rocky start to the year in 2019, batting a lowly .241/.333/.388 with 20 doubles, two triples, and three homeruns through his first 58 contests. However, once he returned from a fractured left index finger he slugged a hearty .291/.339/.443 with 10 doubles and seven homeruns in 52 games. A slightly better than average eye with phenomenal contact skills, Hayes – for some reason – has been a bit susceptible to left-handers through his career. Beginning in 2017 through last season, here are his yearly OPS totals against southpaws (with his production vs. RHP in parenthesis: .639 (.731), .693 (.855), and .680 (.768). The power is still developing, though it may never get to a 50-grade tool. Defensively, he’s going to win multiple – three, four, five, or more – Gold Gloves and a handful of Platinum Gloves in his career. In terms of offensive ceiling, think Jonathan Villar’s 2019 campaign with the Orioles: .274/.339/.453.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Low toModerate

MLB ETA: 2020

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4. Liover Peguero, SS

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 45/55 35/50 45 50 50 55

Background: Overshadowed by two highly touted amateurs – Kristian Robinson and Jorge Barrosa – as part of the Diamondbacks’ haul on the international scene, Peguero, nonetheless, is developing into quite the prospect himself. After quickly handling the foreign league competition, but floundering in a late season promotion to the stateside rookie league, Peguero ripped through the Pioneer League in the opening half of 2019. In 38 games with Missoula, the 6-foot-1, 160-pound shortstop slugged .264/.410/.559 with seven doubles, three triples, and five homeruns with eight stolen bases. His numbers declined – predictably – upon his promotion up to Hillsboro; he batted .262/.333/.357 with four doubles and a pair of triples with the Hops. Pittsburgh acquired the young shortstop, along with 2019 first rounder Brennan Malone and international bonus money, from the Diamondbacks in exchange for outfielder Starling Marte this offseason.

Scouting Report: With respect to his work in the Pioneer League last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 18-year-olf hitters to post a 150 to 165 DRC+ in the Pioneer League (min. 150 PA): Jesse Winker, Caleb Gindl, and Liover Peguero.

The offensive numbers in the opening portion of the year are a bit misleading. The Pioneer League tends to inflate numbers quite a bit. But…Peguero’s batted ball data was nothing short of phenomenal. According to FanGraphs, the then-18-year-old posted an average exit velocity of 90 mph with a peak of 105 mph. Solid speed, glove, and a hit tool that could climb to a 55-grade. Arizona’s front office seems determined to push Peguero aggressively through the system as long as he proves himself at a level over a reasonable amount of time. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Pirates take a similar approach. Very intriguing upside.

Ceiling: 3.0- to 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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5. Tahnaj Thomas, RHP

FB CB CH Command Overall 65 55 N/A 50 55

Background: Originally signed out of Freeport, Bahamas, as a shortstop by the Indians and immediately converted into a pitcher. The Pirates acquired the promising, albeit raw project with utility infielder Erik Gonzalez for Jordan Luplow, Max Moroff, and big right-hander Dante Mendoza. Thomas, a 6-foot-4, 190-pound right-hander, is coming off of two strong back-to-back seasons in the low levels of the minor leagues. After struggling through his first tour in the Arizona League, Thomas returned to the stateside rookie league with a vengeance in 2018; he averaged 12.4 strikeouts and 4.6 walks per nine innings during his final season in the Cleveland farm system. Last season Pittsburgh pushed him up to the Appalachian League and the Bahamian fireballer took some promising developmental steps forward. In 12 starts with Bristol, he posted a 59-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 48.1 innings of work. He compiled a 3.17 ERA and a 3.77 DRA (Deserved Runs Average).

Scouting Report: Originally a low level lottery ticket that’s increasing his odds of paying off – in a large way. Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 20-year-old pitchers to post at least a 29.0% strikeout percentage and a sub-7.0% walk percentage in the Appalachian League (min. 45 IP): Josiah Gray, a top prospect in the Dodgers’ system; Boone Whiting; Ross Francis; Martire Garcia; and Tahnaj Thomas.

Explosive plus- to plus-fastball with riding, late life. A curveball that may eventually climb into 60-grade territory. And he’ll mix in a changeup, though I didn’t see one. Throw in some improving control / command and Thomas is quietly becoming a legitimate top pitching prospect. The wiry right-hander may see another slight uptick in velocity as he gains experience and strength. This is a bit of an aggressive ranking, but he could eventually settle in as a mid-rotation caliber arm with the floor of a high-leverage relief arm.

Ceiling: 3.0- to 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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6. Travis Swaggerty, CF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 55 40/45 50 50 60 50

Background: Despite a bit of downturn in production during his junior campaign the Pirates drafted for the South Alabama center fielder with the tenth overall selection, bypassing top prospects like Logan Gilbert, Grayson Rodriguez, Nolan Gorman, or Brice Turang – just to name a few. Swaggerty, a wiry 5-foot-11, 180-pound center fielder, split time between the New York-Penn and South Atlantic Leagues during his debut, batting a disappointing .239/.322/.383 with 10 doubles, two triples, and five homeruns. The front office opted to push the young outfielder straight into the California League – in spite of his late season struggles with the West Virginia Power during his debut. And the results were…as expected, more or less. Swaggerty batted a mediocre .265/.347/.381 with 20 doubles, three triples, and nine homeruns. He also swiped 23 bags in 31 attempts. His overall production, per Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 24%.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 21-year-old hitters to post a DRC+ between 120 and 130 with a strikeout rate between 21% and 23% in the Florida State League (min. 300 PA): Marcell Ozuna, Chris Parmelee, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and – of course – Travis Swaggerty. Sans Swaggerty, here are their respective big league career DRC+ totals: 108 (Ozuna), 96 (Parmelee), and 74 (Nieuwenhuis).

A few random-ish thoughts:

The former South Alabama star fits the mold as many of the club’s other top center fielders: a toolsy, defensive-minded athlete.

After a slow start to the year in which he batted .213/.311/.311 over his first 64 games, Swaggerty’s production leapt in another stratosphere over his final 57 contests as he slugged .324/.389/.460.

I’m betting on the second half production; the first half was – likely – due to a learning curve and aggressive promotion schedule.

The power may never push the needle above a 45.

He’s borderline elite in center field with a floor as a low end starter and I think the ceiling still resides in the .280/.330/.400 neighborhood as I wrote in last year’s book.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

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7. Cody Bolton, RHP

FB SL CU CH Command Overall 60 60 60 45 50+ 50

Background: Just another one of the examples of how well the Pirates find – and sign – talent outside the first few rounds of the draft. Pittsburgh selected the 6-foot-3, 185-pound right-hander in the sixth round, 178th overall, in the 2017 June draft and – of course – signed him to an above-slot bonus. Bolton immediately started paying dividends. He posted a 22-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 25.2 innings of work in the Gulf Coast League during his debut. The front office bumped the hard-throwing youngster up to the South Atlantic League the following year, 2018, and he dominated in an injury-shortened campaign. He averaged 9.1 strikeouts and just 1.7 walks per nine innings to go along with a 3.65 ERA. Despite the shortened tenure in Low Class A – he tossed fewer than 50 innings – the Pirates’ brass, once again, challenged Bolton by sending him directly up to High Class A to start last season. After 12 absurdly strong starts he earned a promotion up to the minors’ toughest challenge, Class AA, for the remainder of the year. In all, the Tracy High School product posted an impeccable 102-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 101.2 innings of work.

Scouting Report: Easily, easily the best pitcher you’ve never heard of. Bolton looks like a bonafide upper-part-of-the-rotation caliber arm in the making. I scouted a handful of his games last season. His fastball was sitting – effortlessly – in the 94- to 96-mph range and touching 98 mph several times. He features two types of breaking pitches, though they’re quasi-similar. His slider is a wipeout swing-and-miss offering, sitting in the 87- to 88-mph neighborhood. He’ll also feature a hard, low-90s cutter that he throws the same way as his slider. Bolton, like Mitch Keller, throws a subpar, too firm changeup; though the former’s does show some promising fade and arm-side run. Bolton has the feel of a #3 / #4 type pitcher. With respect to his work in High Class A last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 21-year-old pitchers to post a strikeout percentage between 27% and 30% with a sub-% walk percentage in the Florida State League (min. 50 IP): Brent Honeywell, Wade Davis, Daniel Norris, Cole Sands, Rafael Montero, Victor Arano, and Cody Bolton.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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8. Brennan Malone, RHP

FB CB SL CH Command Overall 65 50 55/60 45/50 45/50 55

Background: Along with Jack Leiter and Matthew Allen, Malone’s name belonged in the conversation for top prep arm in the months heading into last year’s draft. Malone, who committed verbally to the University of North Carolina in the fall of 2016, was lights out for Indian Trail Porter Ridge High School two years ago; in 51.1 innings the hard-throwing right-hander fanned a whopping 76 and compiled a barely there 1.36 ERA. The broad-shouldered right-hander spent the following summer playing for the 18U Team USA National squad, throwing 8.1 innings of working with nine punch outs and nine walks. He was particularly dominant against the Dominican Republic (4.1 innings and 4 strikeouts) and helped propel Team USA to the gold medal game by working three innings against a solid Nicaragua team. Malone transferred to IMG academy prior to his senior season. Perfect Game tabbed him as a 2019 Preseason All-American and All-Region Teams. The Diamondbacks snagged him near the back of the first round, 33rd, and limited his debut to just 8.0 innings between the Arizona Summer and Northwest Leagues; he fanned eight and walked five.

Scouting Report: Huge, burly frame that looks like he should be playing professionally as a tight end or a linebacker. Malone attacks hitters with an impressive four pitch mix: his explosive fastball sits comfortably in the mid-90s with significant run on his two-seamer; his curveball shows solid 12-6 break; his slider, often times resembling a cutter, flashes plus; and his changeup should become an average weapon in his arsenal. Malone’s an interesting prospect because his max effort and massive frame suggest a future reliever. Bu the has the potential to develop into a strong – pun intended – starting pitcher.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022/2023

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9. Quinn Priester, RHP

FB CB CH Command Overall 60 60 N/A 45/50 50

Background: A two-sport star for Cary-Grove High School. Priester, who stands 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds, switched from quarterback to wide receiver and defensive back prior to his final go-round on the grid iron. The squad finished with a perfect 14-0 record, including 8-0 in conference play, as they captured the school’s first state championship since 2009. A commit to Big12 Conference powerhouse Texas Christian University, who locked him in verbally during his sophomore season, Priester went to the Pirates in the opening round, 18th overall, last June. The two sides agreed to a pact worth $3.4 million, just a smidgeon below the assigned slot value of $3,481,300. Priester made eight appearances in the Gulf Coast League and one final, four-inning start in the New York-Penn League during his debut, posting an impressive 41-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 36.2 innings of work. He compiled a 3.19 ERA.

Scouting Report: Here’s what I wrote about the hard-throwing right-hander prior to the draft last season:

“Showing easily repeatable, almost effortless mechanics; Priester attacks hitters with a deadly combination of a lively low- to mid-90s fastball and a sharp, late-breaking curveball – both grading out as plus pitches. His heater will show some solid arm side run at times as well. Reports indicate that he’ll mix in a changeup at times, though he’s mainly a two-pitch hurler at this point. As with a lot of young arms, his third pitch – the changeup – hasn’t been used frequently. Priester looks like a potential mid-rotation caliber arm.”

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 55/60 20/40 60 55 50 50

Background: A representative of South Korea in the 2017 U18 Baseball World Cup, Bae, who batted a respectable .286 with a handful of RBIs and a pair of stolen bases, signed with Pittsburgh for a hefty $1.25 million. He made his stateside debut in the Gulf Coast League two years ago, hitting .271/.362/.349 with six doubles, a pair of triples, and 10 stolen bases (in 14 total attempts). His overall production, according to Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by 24%. The front office maintained status quo and aggressively challenged the youngster by assigning him to the South Atlantic League last season. And the 6-foot-1, 170-pound lefty-swinging middle infielder answered the challenge – resoundingly. Despite missing six weeks at the start of the year, Bae went on to slug .323/.403/.430 with 25 doubles, five triples, and 31 stolen bases. His production topped 58% above the league average mark.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, only two 19-year-old hitters posted a 150 DRC+ or better in the South Atlantic League (min. 300 PA): former Orioles top prospect Chance Sisco, who’s been disappointing in three stints in the big leagues, and Ji-Hwan Bae.

The potential to have a 60-grade hit tool and some defensive versatility. The Eiffel Tower-sized red flag, of course, has been Bae’s lack of thunder in his bat. He’s slugged exactly zero homeruns in 121 career minor league games. On the other hand, Bae belted out 30 extra-base hits in only 86 games last season. Prorating those numbers over a 162 game season: 47 doubles and nine triples. Meaning: the power’s on its way in terms of over the fence production. He’s very intriguing as a potential starting caliber infielder. But the pop has to start showing up in the next couple of years.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.