Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and Democratic challenger Fred Hubbell have told two very different stories about the health of Iowa's budget, and they've laid out starkly different road maps for the state's future tax policy.

Now, the Republican governor is claiming that a Hubbell victory in November's election for governor will mean higher taxes for Iowa families.

The claim

In an ad currently airing on television, the Reynolds campaign charges that Hubbell plans to increase income taxes on Iowa families.

"Liberal Fred Hubbell wants to raise taxes," the narrator says.

The ad, funded by the Reynolds campaign, also makes a specific claim about how much those purported tax increases could cost local families.

"Hubbell’s plan will increase taxes on Iowa’s families by up to $1,000 a year," the narrator says. "That’s easy for Hubbell, but it’s six weeks of groceries for the rest of us, a mortgage payment or diapers for a year."

The ad is peppered with quotes directly from Hubbell about his plans to re-examine tax cuts enacted earlier this year. They include the candidate saying, "We're gonna have to peel back all those tax cuts."

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The dispute

Reynolds bases the claim on an interview of Hubbell during a June 2018 episode of Iowa Press.

Hubbell did make those comments on the show, but his campaign said he was speaking about the potential damage ongoing trade wars could have on state revenues. An Iowa State University study released in September showed that Iowa farmers could lose as much as $2.2 billion, losses primed to ripple through Iowa's economy and the state budget.

"So, I think if you sat here today, and today’s world is what you’re going to have in January, we’re going to have to peel back all those tax cuts because our state is not going to be able to afford that," he said.

On that program, Hubbell said he would have vetoed the $2 billion tax-cut package the Legislature approved and Reynolds signed into law in May. He previously called the move fiscally irresponsible.

Moderator O. Kay Henderson, a Radio Iowa reporter, acknowledged that Hubbell planned to undo the individual tax cuts and asked him to specify plans for already enacted corporate tax cuts.

"I'm talking about all the tax cuts," Hubbell answered. "I said very clearly I would have vetoed the law if I had a chance to veto it because it's fiscally irresponsible."

But where does the governor's $1,000 figure come from?

The Reynolds campaign points to estimates on how much the tax cuts could eventually save Iowans: The Iowa Department of Revenue projects a married couple with two dependents earning between $48,000 and $52,000 per year could save $963 annually in tax year 2024 under the new tax plan — if certain state revenue goals are met.

Our findings

Reynolds is correct that if Hubbell were to enact a total repeal of her tax cut package, it could cost a family of four nearly $1,000 per year. But that's a big if — for two reasons.

First, the projected value of Iowa's tax cuts are not guaranteed.

Legislators built in so-called revenue triggers to this year's tax-cut package to ensure tax cuts don't decrease state revenue so much as to jeopardize the budget. In essence, the tax cuts get bigger only if revenues grow by certain levels.

More:Will you save money when Iowa's GOP tax cuts become law?

And those triggers make a big difference on the value of the tax cuts.

That same family of four the Reynolds campaign uses as the basis for its ad is projected to save only $199 in tax year 2021, according to the Iowa Department of Revenue.

Second, it's unclear what exactly Hubbell plans to do with Iowa's tax policy.

Hubbell has charged that the GOP tax bill tilts too far in favor of the wealthy: nearly half of the $433 million taxpayers are projected to save in tax year 2021 will go to those earning $250,000 or more. (That group represents about 2.5 percent of all Iowa taxpayers.)

Hubbell certainly has expressed an interest in rethinking the current tax structure. Much of his campaign rhetoric has centered on a push to reform tax credits — which he frequently calls "wasteful corporate giveaways." But he has not released a formal tax plan.

Still, he said he plans to reduce state tax burdens on lower and middle earners, particularly the nearly 40 percent of Iowans who struggle to afford the basic costs of living. In an Oct. 2 meeting with the Des Moines Register editorial board, he saidany tax cuts should come only after the state increases funding for education, healthcare and infrastructure. Then, tax cuts should focus on the middle class, he said.

Still, the candidate did speak of rolling back "all the tax cuts" on his Iowa Press appearance in June, because of his concerns that the state could not afford the associated loss of revenue. We find Reynolds' claim to be partly untrue.