Sen. Marco Rubio speaks to media outside his office on Capitol Hill. | AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster Poll: Rubio, Murphy easily win primaries, but face close contest in November

Sen. Marco Rubio has a marginal 3-point lead over Democratic Congressman Patrick Murphy, according to a new poll of likely Florida voters that indicates the race is close to tied.

“It’s a competitive race. It’s not a slam dunk,” said Brad Coker, pollster for Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the three-day Florida survey of 625 voters that ended Wednesday.


Coker said the Republican incumbent's 46–43 percent lead over Murphy can be considered a tie because of the poll’s 4-point error margin. He said Murphy has room to grow because he’s relatively unknown. Both men are more liked than disliked, but only 21 percent are unfamiliar with Rubio while 59 percent say they don’t know enough about Murphy.

However, the bilingual Rubio has a base in the Democrats’ stronghold of Miami-Dade County and can pull more Hispanic votes than most Republicans, Coker said.

Murphy still leads among Hispanics in the Mason-Dixon poll, but by 49–41 percent. Murphy also dominates the black vote, beating Rubio 79-12 percent. Rubio has a sizable lead among non-Hispanic white voters, 53-36 percent. Men support Rubio 50-38 percent; women favor Murphy 47-43 percent.

An X-factor in the race: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who had been struggling in recent Florida polls. Coker said it’s unclear what effect the presidential race will have down ticket, though presidential election years in Florida tend to bring out more minority and young voters, who generally vote Democratic.

“Rubio can keep the Hispanic voters that Trump is losing,” Coker said.

Republicans backed Rubio over Murphy 80–9 percent, while Murphy had relatively weaker support in his base, with Democrats supporting him 76–15 percent over Rubio. The Miami lawmaker is leading Murphy among independents, 47–40 percent.

Before facing each other, Rubio and Murphy will have to win their Aug. 30 primaries, which the survey by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research suggests will be a blow out for both men.

Rubio leads Republican challenger Carlos Beruff, 61–22 percent, with 15 percent undecided, the poll shows. In the Democratic race, Murphy is ahead of fellow U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson by 55–22 percent; Pam Keith has 4 percent of the vote; 19 percent are undecided. The margin of error in the primary matchups is 5 points.

A Florida Chamber of Commerce poll, released earlier Wednesday, showed Rubio beating Beruff 68–19 percent. Murphy led Grayson 40 percent to 11 percent with 38 percent undecided.

The Florida Chamber poll showed Trump taking 44 percent of the presidential vote to Clinton’s 41 percent, followed by Libertarian Gary Johnson (9 percent) and a generic “someone else” (2 percent) with 4 percent undecided.

POLITICO Florida did not write a standalone news story on the chamber poll because of a lack of demographic data concerning support for the candidates broken down by party or race. The chamber says it will furnish that information Thursday.

CORRECTION: Due to an editor's error, the original version of this article had the margin of error at 3 instead of 4, and said that 22 percent of respondents were unfamiliar with Rubio rather than 21.