‘High-ranking officer’ appears to contradict Binyamin Netanyahu’s explanation of the causes of the violence and questions the need for lethal force

The Israeli military believes the current wave of lethal violence with Palestinians, which has claimed over 100 lives on both sides in the last two months, will continue in the coming months amid the risk of a further serious escalation.



After a period of 10 days that saw the highest number of Israeli fatalities, and the failure of a mission by US secretary of state John Kerry to calm tensions earlier this week, the bleak assessment confirms the growing view that the current tensions have become a new normal.

The prediction that the violence will continue was made by a senior unnamed Israeli Defence Forces officer who briefed Israeli journalists, and whose assessment was reported in several Israeli papers on Thursday morning.

The assessment emerged as Israel’s defence minister Moshe Ya’alon unveiled plans to construct an additional section of fence to prevent Palestinians from the southern West Bank – a flash point area in recent weeks - from reaching Israel.

Echoing remarks by senior military figures and Israel’s domestic security agency, the Shin Bet in recent weeks, the comments underlined what appears to be a fundamental disagreement between prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his senior ministers and senior security officials over the root causes of the recent dangerous frictions.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest An Israeli soldier guards a bus stop on the occupied West Bank while a yeshiva student prays behind him at the spot where a young Israeli woman was stabbed to death by a Palestinian assailant on Sunday. Photograph: Peter Beaumont for the Guardian

Categorising the recent events as a “limited uprising”, the officer – described as a high-ranking figure in Israel’s central command – warned the violence could continue for months and escalate into a wider conflict. He added that 95% of the attacks were carried out by individuals not directed by militant factions.

“I believe it will be long … I don’t see it subsiding in the next few months and I can’t say whether it will turn into a wider escalation,” the officer told reporters.

“In my estimation, a month of quiet could bring about a decline of the other option, which is a renewed outburst that would lead us to a widespread uprising. We are currently seeing an average of 15 points of rioting every weekday and 40 on weekends, each of them involving from dozens to hundreds of demonstrators. But this could become 20,000 or 200,000 demonstrators.”

Perhaps most controversially the officer revealed that the Israeli military had recommended measures to ease tensions including providing Palestinian work permits, releasing prisoners and providing extra arms to the Palestinian security forces – rejected by Netanyahu’s government.

Most striking about the senior officer’s briefing was the way in which – once again – it appeared to strongly contradict the official government narrative of the causes of the violence which Netanyahu and other figures have blamed on “Palestinian incitement” including by Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas.

Instead the officer said the Israeli military recognised the Palestinian Authority’s efforts to stem the violence, and categorised many of the so called “lone wolf” attackers as “despondent young people, some of them unemployed”.

The officer also criticised the use of lethal force against young Palestinian attackers posing a limited threat, appearing to refer to a high profile incident in which two Palestinian schoolgirls who attempted an attack with scissors in Jerusalem were shot earlier this week and one of them killed.

“Our rules of engagement are more permissive than restrictive, but when you have a trembling girl with scissors in her hands, you don’t need to riddle her with ten bullets. You could kick her or shoot her in the leg.”

The comments came amid a growing sense of hopelessness over the likely trajectory of the escalating crisis in the coming months that has seen mounting criticism of Netanyahu’s handling of the situation.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Palestinian teenagers prepare to clash with Israeli soldiers at a confrontation in Hebron’s Old City, a focus of the recent violence that has claimed 100 lives in two months. Photograph: Peter Beaumont for the Guardian

A slew of newspaper comment pieces in the Israeli media have taken aim at the response both by the government and security forces in recent days.

Writing in the national daily Yedioth Ahronoth earlier this week, Yossi Yehoshua charged that the attacks had “become a routine, which for some reason, has become acceptable. The IDF, it must be said honestly, has no solution to the young terrorists who have no record, no guidance and no infrastructure, who pick up a knife”. In the same paper Sima Kadmon complained: “The question is not whether there will be a terror attack today, but how many and where.”

Twenty two Israelis and foreign nationals have been killed in attacks since mid-September and 203 people have been wounded. Eighty-seven Palestinians have also been killed, including perpetrators shot at the scene.