What does a time with no sports do to a college football writer, you ask? It prompts him to look at way too many preseason polls. Like, way too many.

I set out on a somewhat simple goal — see what happens when “Team X” starts off in the preseason AP Top 25. I wanted to see how certain teams that always seem to be overrated, handle that success.

In other words, how often do teams in the 21st century finish worse than where they started in the AP Top 25? Here are the percentages for the first batch of teams I ran through (the higher the percentage means the more overrated a team is):

Nebraska: 91%

Notre Dame: 82%

Michigan: 79%

Miami: 70%

Tennessee: 67%

Texas: 63%

Georgia: 58%

USC: 56%

Auburn: 54%

Goodness, Nebraska. Does that surprise anyone? The last 3 times the Huskers started in the preseason Top 25, they finished outside of it. The last 6 times they started in the preseason Top 25, they dropped at least 8 spots. They have just 1 top-15 finish in the last 15 years, yet they started in the Top 25 a total of 12 times in the 21st century. Let’s not forget that fresh off a 4-win season in 2018, Nebraska started off in the AP Top 25 last year. Say what you want about the Tennessee hype train this offseason, but at least if the Vols start off in the Top 25, it’ll follow an 8-win season.

And yeah, of course Notre Dame and Michigan were high there. There’s a reason that it feels like traditional powers who haven’t had sustained championship success in multiple decades topped that list. I’ll be honest, though. I thought Georgia and Auburn would be higher. The more teams I crunched the numbers for, the more I realized that they weren’t bad at all.

Yes, I’ve got more teams!

Texas A&M: 100% (only 7 times)

Florida State: 83%

Virginia Tech: 71%

Florida: 69%

Stanford: 67%

Michigan State: 67%

Oklahoma: 65%

Iowa: 57% (only 7 times)

Ohio State: 55%

Wisconsin: 53%

Penn State: 50%

Alabama: 50%

Clemson: 38%

A few things on that.

Texas A&M’s number, while it is based on a small sample size, is somewhat telling. Of the 7 times that the Aggies started ranked, they finished unranked 6 of those times. The only time they didn’t finish completely out of the Top 25 after starting ranked was in 2013 with Johnny Manziel.

Florida State also obviously gives off the “overrated” vibes. After the Seminoles won it all in 2013, they had a streak of 5 straight years of finishing worse than their preseason ranking.

What stands out most to me when I look at those numbers? This might be boring, but it’s Alabama and Clemson. Think about the expectations that both of those programs have had in the 2010s. It’s much harder to match a preseason ranking of No. 1 or No. 2 than it is, say, No. 17 like a Wisconsin or a Stanford has. Alabama started No. 1 or No. 2 a whopping 9 times during the 10 seasons of the 2010s, and the Crimson Tide finished with a top-2 spot a ridiculous 6 times.

Our editor made the case that Clemson is the most underrated team of the past decade. Well, underrated relative to the preseason poll. This year snapped a streak of 5 consecutive years in which the Tigers improved on their preseason ranking, and that only happened because they dropped from No. 1 to No. 2 after facing off with a historically dominant LSU team. Clemson went 11 years between finishing worse than where they started in the AP Poll.

Obviously this stat makes more sense for programs who have been in the preseason Top 25 a decent amount. I decided to make 7 the cutoff number. Otherwise, I’d have to include a team like Minnesota, who technically would be 100%, but that’s because the Gophers were only ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 once in the 21st century, and they finished that year unranked.

So, in case you were wondering, here’s often teams with at least 7 preseason Top 25 rankings in the 21st century finished worse than where they started:

Texas A&M: 100% (7 times)

Nebraska: 91%

West Virginia: 89%

Florida State: 83%

Notre Dame: 82%

Michigan: 79%

Boise State: 78%

Louisville: 75%

Virginia Tech: 71%

Kansas State: 71% (7 times)

Oklahoma State: 71% (7 times)

Miami: 70%

Florida: 69%

Stanford: 67%

Michigan State: 67%

Tennessee: 67%

Oklahoma: 65%

Texas: 63%

Georgia: 58%

TCU: 58%

Iowa: 57% (7 times)

USC: 56%

Ohio State: 55%

Auburn: 54%

Wisconsin: 53%

Oregon: 53%

Penn State: 50%

Alabama: 50%

Clemson: 38%

That’s 29 teams that meet the 7 preseason Top 25 polls in the 21st century mark. It’s incredible to think that all but Clemson finished worse than their preseason ranking at least half the time. Then again, the margin for error is slimmer for preseason ranked teams than unranked teams.

It’s also noteworthy that even teams like Boise State and West Virginia, who are by no means traditional powers, are still so high on that list. Conventional wisdom suggests that Boise State is the team that doesn’t get enough preseason love, not the other way around.

Does that tell the entire story? No, obviously. There are the teams who start unranked and finished ranked. Boise State actually had 3 consecutive years of starting unranked and finishing ranked before it finally showed up in the preseason Top 25 in 2005 … and then it finished unranked that year.

That’s why this type of thing is worth digging into. Coaches talk so much about handling expectations, and with an 8-month offseason, that’s not such an easy thing to do in today’s college football world.

I always find myself complaining that certain teams are overrated coming into a season. Call it overrating name brands, if you will. Florida State and Nebraska weren’t surprises, but I was under the impression that teams like Auburn, Georgia and USC got too much preseason love in the media poll. This suggests that, generally speaking, they actually handled expectations well in the 21st century.

Why did I think that way? I have certain seasons burned in my brain. I still remember 2008 when Georgia started No. 1 in the country and was loaded with talent, but ultimately didn’t even finish in the top 10. Shoot, that’s not as bad as USC’s disastrous 2012 season when Lane Kiffin’s Trojans started No. 1 and finished unranked. Twice in the Playoff era, Auburn started as a top-10 team and finished outside of the Top 25.

Perhaps I should adjust my thinking. At least I should as it relates to those teams.

As for Nebraska and Florida State, I’ll continue my thinking of “prepare to be disappointed.”