Ok I wasn’t going to hare in on this. I really, really wasn’t. I don’t have much regard for Gevlon outside of the world of making (absolute fucktons) of money. The man is a sharp shark of a market warrior and his considerable mental gifts are very well focused on his primary goal of making piles of isk.

He is not remotely aware of the history of EvE, the power structures of the major alliances, or the motivations of anyone who doesn’t permanently have their wallet open to chortle over. Let me get to some details here. Recently our gobliny friend posted an op-ed claiming that the Mittani had made his first and last mistake during his declaration of war.

News flash: If it’s a mistake it has a lot of people who made the decision and it is FAR from the Goon’s first mistake.

Goons have a history of two things. Doing something that looks fantastically stupid and turning it into something brilliant; like abandoning all their Sov to kill BoB. This move had every pundit in the game laughing as they expected the Bees to get stomped, and find themselves completely homeless, hopeless, and friendless. Only it worked. BoB collapsed (with help) and the Goons found their strategy, and their spymaster, vindicated.

They also have a history of stupidly squandering success. For example forgetting to pay sov bills. For virtually all their sov. Yeah, goons did that once. It was a *bit* of a mistake.

Goons are also a TOUGH alliance. Their connection to this game (like that of TEST) has nothing to do with EvE, but instead through a massive community entirely outside of the game. If by some disaster Goons get crushed they won’t disintegrate like BoB, -A-, or so many alliances tied to EvE by only EvE. The worst the could conceivably happen would be some coalition members drop out. Some drop in activity. They won’t failcascade any more than they have the numerous times they’ve been chased out of various areas of EvE.

Let’s talk a bit about why Goons are so successful. They have a leader who makes statements, they have a leadership council that makes decisions. I’m guessing these guys would measure up pretty well to a professional military staff. I should know, I’ve been on one. They look at measurable facts, they develop doctrine for each situation, they plan logistics and have replacement ships ready both on their own and through the efforts of coalition members.

That’s the reason for this deployment in actuality; and the players know it. They need a new source of income to support their mammoth SRP. OTEC isn’t exactly controlling the T2 market like they used to. Diversifying their income flow is an absolute necessity and grabbing the moons of Fountain will get them R64 and R32 moons that will allow them to continue an SRP program that includes not only regular BS, but T3s, Fleet BS, and Capitals. You can’t replace them on the budget they are looking for so they approached their members, and their Coalition mates, and said “You want the largesse to continue? You want the gravy train? This is how we get it, show the fuck up.” That isn’t a mistake. That’s a straightforward decision. TEST has been reeling, suffering from leadership crises and the shattering of HBC. Now the non-surprise of PL coming to visit WITH CFC and AGAINST their former Coalition mates, TEST, not to mention the grinding battles launched when CFC deployed two of their “squads” to the south.

Now the CFC is coming with bells on. They have their super fleet, they have their Coalition lined up like good little ducklings, they have a clear and simple motivation of self interest in expanding their available resources. They might have to fight, and fight hard, but The Mittani & Co have had years to infiltrate TEST. Their counters will be picked up and dealt with, the leadership council of CFC will provide a constant flow of guidance and resources while TEST’s scratch team will struggle to keep pace.

The one thing that CFC needs from this, ironically, is good fights. Recently they’ve taken a bit of a pounding in their own turf from 401k and BL. Always being on the defensive is no fun, it doesn’t make people happy, it doesn’t satisfy them and it doesn’t seem like you are achieving much. Taking the offensive is usually far more popular with the legions. It gets them moving, they can see systems flip, they can see the disruption in their enemies, they can brag about their effectiveness with far more emphasis on real achievements that everyone can see. This can forge the newly shrunk Goonswarm and show them that they really are the hard core of the CFC, that they can compete, that they can measure up by their own metrics with their coalition members.

Gevlon would have you believe the greed will turn off the rank and file. It’s their greed that feeds the need for this campaign. They would have you feel that the CFC wave will crash against Fortress Fountain and withdraw, shattering Goons. Goons don’t shatter. Reverses strengthen them because of their shared culture, sense of persecution, and strong sense of community. Goons can be defeated, they can lose, they can be chased to lowsec, but it won’t happen while they are on the offensive. It will happen when they are on the defensive. When they get pounded after being inactive too long, after being off the offensive long enough for the rot to set in.

Gevlon knows his stuff in his arena. This isn’t his arena. This isn’t close to his arena. This isn’t within screaming distance of his arena.