Article content continued

What helped put Scheer over the edge in leadership voting would soon play a major role in bringing him down

So Scheer and Marshall ran a cautious, low-key campaign. Scheer didn’t attack other candidates aggressively. He was friendly to social conservatives. He courted the party’s MPs, growing his caucus endorsements to 32 by the end — the most of anyone. He focused on rural regions with lower numbers of voters, knowing each riding was weighted equally. He championed supply management, and in return, the dairy lobby signed up “thousands and thousands and thousands” of members for him in Quebec, Marshall told the National Post shortly after the vote. Scheer even won Bernier’s Quebec riding of Beauce.

The voting at the May 2017 convention went 13 rounds. Bernier was ahead in every one until the last, when he lost by a sliver. Scheer had started out with just 22 per cent support in the first round, but steadily grew it to 51 per cent on the final ballot.

During the race Bernier hadn’t yet taken on the populist persona that now defines him, but he’d promoted a brash style of libertarianism that would have been a drastic change after Stephen Harper’s leadership. Instead, the Conservatives emerged with what was seen to be a safer choice in Scheer. He was “Stephen Harper with a smile,” not well-known by the public but well-liked within the caucus. Party strategists set to work on marketing him as a credible alternative to Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.

Photo by Fred Chartrand/The Canadian Press/File

But what helped put Scheer over the edge in leadership voting would soon play a major role in bringing him down. A key moment at the leadership convention came after round 11, when Brad Trost — who had a surprisingly strong showing as an outspoken social conservative — dropped off the ballot. Trost’s voters surged to Scheer, jumping Scheer’s support from 30 per cent to 38 per cent, and putting him within two points of Bernier. Scheer owed his victory in no small part to the social conservative vote.