It is not obvious that Russia and China want the European Union to be an independent and active global player. In the next five years, Europe will be vulnerable and emotionally unstable because of the election of top EU leaders from among openly incompetent politicians or respected leaders with limited access to the necessary resources. Russia and China should use this opportunity to consolidate their strategies and approaches toward Europe, which is a geographic neighbor, a major economic partner and, sometimes, a source of political concern for the two great powers.



Despite its economic scale and market attractiveness, modern Europe is not an influential global player. The reason lies in the increasing inability of the leading EU countries to forget about their national interests and their leaders’ personal preferences in order to strengthen the EU institutions and their global prestige. Without close integration supported by the people, there are fewer chances than even in the mid-20th century that Europe’s opinions on regional issues, not to mention global matters, will be respected.

The 2018-2019 political season is ending with fierce bargaining over the appointment of political leaders to the EU top positions. The most important of these posts, or rather the only ones that carry practical weight, are the posts of President of the European Commission and President of the European Council. Both posts will be held by individuals with questionable achievements at the national level. They were nominated in a secret deal between the leading EU heads of state and government who had little interest in the candidates’ personal ambitions and talents.

The political outcomes of this for the next five years are weak EU institutions and an imbalance of influence in favor of the leading EU states whose top officials have clearly indicated their unwillingness to cede at least part of their political clout and popularity to Brussels. Therefore, it is unlikely that the European integration processes will overcome their system-wide crisis. This is very sad, but the foreign policy consequences are more important for Russia and China, which are using their opportunities to formulate a constructive alternative to the Western policy that does not offer any global public benefits.