All tied up in Whitby-Oshawa

Second place Liberals surge in in Yellowhead

TORONTO, November 16th, 2014 – In a pair of random samplings of public opinion among 919 voters in the federal riding of Whitby-Oshawa, and 311 in Yellowhead, where by-elections will be held on Monday, November 17, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied in the Ontario riding while the second place Liberal candidate has surged in Alberta.

Whitby-Oshawa

Liberal Candidate Celina Caesar-Chavannes has just less than half the vote (45%) to just more than 4-in-10 for her Conservative opponent, former Whitby mayor Pat Perkins (42%). In comparison, five days ago, candidate results were reversed, but similarly close, with the Conservative at close to half (44%) and the Liberal at 4-in-10 (40%). The NDP candidate, Trish McAuliffe has just one tenth of the vote now (10%), and the Green Party has a very small share (3%). About one fifth of those who voted Conservative in the last federal election will vote Liberal today (18%), while more than 4-in-10 past New Democrats will as well (42%). Few past Liberal voters will vote for another party.





Yellowhead

While Conservative candidate Jim Eglinski has one half the votes (51%), this is down from two thirds five days ago (November 11 - 62%). At the same time, the Liberal candidate, Ryan Maguhn, has seen his share increase from one seventh five days ago (16%) to almost a quarter the day before the vote (24%). The NDP share for candidate Eric Rosendahl, has not changed (November 11 - 12%, today - 13%). More than a tenth will vote for another party (13%).





“Both of these results are very troubling for the federal Conservatives. In Ontario, they're tied in a seat held by one of their most popular ministers, and there appears to be an uprising happening in one of the safest Conservative seats in the country. Neither of these are good signs for the government in the coming election campaign,” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.