BURNABY—Twenty minutes before the first Burnaby South byelection debate, a sudden influx of People’s Party of Canada supporters with shiny signs and newly minted pins filled all the remaining chairs in the room.

And they were ready to be heard, not just seen.

The following two debates — attended by roughly 100 people, on average — were dominated by this group’s grievances. They were louder and rowdier and far outnumbered the supporters of any other national party in the House of Commons.

The third debate descended into chaos when the topic of immigration arose, leading to finger-pointing and shrieking in the audience.

“Canadians first,” yelled several in the crowd, donning PPC pins. Roars from the crowd drowned out the candidates as others shouted “racist” and “fascist” in response.

This is one face of an increasingly visible populist movement in Canada. And experts say it’s not going anywhere any time soon. More and more, there is less common ground in what we consider to be Canadian values, and experts say the nation’s shift toward populism heralds a new chapter in Canada’s life. Political discourse is only expected to become more entrenched and vitriolic ahead of October’s general election.

Frank Graves is the president of Ottawa-based EKOS Research Associates. He’s been tracking what he calls “ordered populism” or what economists refer to as drawbridge-up thinking.

While populism can operate either on the left, right or even centre of the political spectrum, Graves said that is not what is emerging in Canada. Instead, it’s ordered populism which is bubbling up in the values of the right and far-right.

Its members are largely religious, have reservations about diversity, are deeply pessimistic about their economic future, are disdainful of media and government and are convinced that climate change matters far less than their own survival.

“What unifies populism is a dispute between the so-called pure people and the corrupt elite. And that is definitely what Trump, Brexit, Ford and the PPC is going after,” he told Star Vancouver.

Maxime Bernier, the leader of the PPC, is speaking a “far more authentic” version of what those in the ordered populist camp want to hear, Graves added.

“One of the big question marks for me (is) will that actually convert into impact in the next election?”

After a messy split with the Conservative Party last year following his loss in the leadership race, Bernier — an MP from Beauce, Que. and a former cabinet minister in the Stephen Harper era — announced the launch of the People’s Party of Canada, made official with Elections Canada this January. He’s since been touring the country.

Burnaby South’s Laura-Lynn Tyler Thompson — a former Christian radio host, anti-abortion activist and vocal opponent to British Columbia’s student education plan on sexual orientation and gender fluidity — was one of his first picks to run as a candidate. Her support could be an early indicator of the PPC’s chances in the upcoming general election.

Tyler Thompson will face off against federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh — vying for his first seat in the House of Commons — Liberal Richard Lee, Conservative Jay Shin and independents Valentine Wu and Terry Grimwood on Monday in Burnaby South.

Byelections will also be held that day in York—Simcoe, Ont., a seat previously held by former Conservative cabinet minister Peter Van Loan, and in Outremont, Que. The latter riding was home to former NDP leader Thomas Mulcair.

Each time Tyler Thompson said “Canadians first,” — which occurred multiple times at every debate — the crowd would swell into visceral cheers. Thompson directly appealed to prevalent anxieties in the riding about public safety as she repeatedly brought up the case of Marissa Shen, a 13-year-old Burnaby South girl who was murdered in the region. A Syrian refugee, who was employed in Canada and had family here, is the accused. Allegations are still being tested in court.

Despite common assumptions that the populist movement camp is dominated by disaffected white males, Thompson’s supporters in Burnaby South are composed of a majority of Chinese-Canadians. She told the Star that’s because of her strong roots in some of the community’s churches.

In an interview with the Star on Thursday, Bernier said his party is indeed populist — but a “smart populist party.”

“Usually when you are a populist politician, you appeal to the emotion of people. I’m not playing with their emotion. I’m playing with their intelligence,” he explained, claiming the PPC is the only party with solid policy platforms. “We are the People’s Party working for the people … and I am proud of that.”

People are finding less and less common ground when it comes to Canadian values — and that is certainly going to matter in the upcoming election, Graves said.

While politics are often fickle and ever-changing, values change at a glacially slow pace. For instance, at the turn of the century Canadians were more “open” when it came to ideological orientation — which Graves said is a terrific predictor of values — 50 per cent of Canadians agreed that they were neither to the right or the left.

But now, Graves said that number has dwindled down to 10 per cent.

“Everybody has picked a side,” Graves said. “You live in two incommensurable Canadas, just as there’s two incommensurable Americas. And U.K. And Ontario. And that’s a daunting challenge.”

Values exist in the cultural realm and provide “moral goalposts” on what people prefer society to look like. Unlike discussions of policy issues, debates on values are emotionally engaging which is why Graves estimates the “narrative” of the right is beginning to dominate.

And on the left, the opposite end of the ideological spectrum, there has yet to emerge a populist movement with an equally emotive narrative. While the right begins to have its own conversations about values, Graves said the “open values” of the centre and left remain consistent between Liberals, NDP, and Greens.

Members of this “open society” outlook favour diversity, immigration, trade and globalization, are optimistic about the future, guided by evidence-based policy and believe that climate change is of high priority.

And the gaps between the two groups could not be larger, Graves said.

Since announcing the PPC (which started as an angry Twitter feed last fall), the Star reported Bernier has been fending off the far-right movement in Canada. A Star investigation found that far-right supporters have called on their members to infiltrate the PPC, whether the party is willing or not. As the extreme right has done elsewhere, they hope to move on a new party, bit by bit, to bring the political extreme toward the mainstream.

Indeed, a quick scan of Twitter will find thousands of PPC accounts with many using the hashtag #MadMax.

Meanwhile, the Yellow Vest faction — which started as a labour movement in France but has expanded in Canada beyond economic concerns, delving into anti-globalism, nationalism, anti-government sentiment and xenophobia — looks like it’s here to stay.

Bernier was there to greet the United We Roll convoy when it arrived in Ottawa on Tuesday. Bernier addressed the crowd standing proudly next to a man in a yellow vest and said he was there to promote Canadian unity.

In order to address the economic despair at the root of this rising outrage, Graves said it is important to separate ourselves from its expressions including nativism, xenophobia, racism and misogyny. He warned that without tackling the root causes, these divisions in society will only widen.

“It simply adds fuel to the fire. It denies the populist camp. It denies the fact that there is some empirical reality to the economic anxiety they are facing,” Graves said. “The fact that globalization and these sorts of things haven’t really worked out well for them.”

Ahead of Bernier’s first appearance in Burnaby South on Thursday, supporters sang the national anthem and chanted “We are going to clean Canada up” while they waited for him to arrive. Asked whether the PPC is anti-immigration or espouses anti-globalist views, Bernier insisted that the party’s conviction on immigration will be strong.

“We are not for open borders for sure and we are not anti-immigration. We want fewer immigrants in this country and … more economic immigrants,” he said.

“So I’m saying to these people that don’t believe in immigration that they are not welcome in our party. It’s very clear.”

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According to Graves, immigration will be a ballot-box issue in October. He considers the levels of concern around immigration unprecedented in Canadian history. His private polls show Bernier’s popularity is rising just a few points shy of being a real rival for Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer.

Support for Bernier — whom Graves said speaks to the populist camp in a direct and transparent way — is coming largely from people who would otherwise vote for Scheer. Graves added small-c conservatives are predominantly attracted to ordered populism.

“Whatever Bernier gains is what Scheer loses. It’s that simple,” he said.

Still, he added, it remains to be seen how much ground Bernier will take in October.

When Bernier declared “the death of political correctness in Canada” to his roughly 65,000 Twitter followers, it was heard as siren call for those attracted to ordered populism. Tyler Thompson described shivers down her spine when she saw it and told the Star it was the very reason she decided to run.

“I felt it to be a calling that it was time for people with courage to rise,” she said. “I think Canadians have to stop being afraid of being called names when they speak the truth.”

Tyler Thompson said Canadians who appreciate “family values” are essentially being left behind and that’s part of the reason Conservative members are leaving “in droves” to join the PPC. In addition, she said there’s a silent majority of Canadians who are “sick and tired” of living in fear.

According to a CPC spokesperson, the creation of the PPC has had “no material impact on our membership or on our fundraising.”

Graves is “watching closely” to see exactly where the pool of populist votes may be coming from and we won’t know precisely until October’s election. Since the Liberals won the last federal election in 2015, Graves said there have been dramatic shifts in the demographics and psychology underlying the Canadian electorate.

At the time the Liberals, a centrist party which capitalized on having broad appeal, did equally well with men, women, university-educated people, college-educated people, high school students, new Canadians, the working class, and the middle class, according to Graves’ data.

But that ruling class ideal is taking a nosedive experiencing “tremendous loss erosions” with male, working class and nonuniversity educated voters, Graves said.

“That’s a big gap. It’s part of the resentment that we see in this ordered populist camp towards professionals, intellectuals, scientists, the elite,” he explained. “It’s very hostile because they see these people as the authors in a lot of the problems they have.”

In addition, Graves said the gaps between the psychology of voters could not be wider. Much like it is in Europe and the United States, immigration is at the forefront for Canadian voters now and just at its heels is climate change. That’s no matter what side of the equation you’re on, he added.

The gulf in popular discourse is not going away. And Graves said it’s becoming increasingly apparent that engaging in any sort of dialogue — no matter where you are on the spectrum — is challenging.

In order to hash out rising division between core values, the Liberals, NDP and Greens — as progressive left and centre moderates — must focus on the drivers of the populist movement instead of its symptoms, Graves said. That means directly addressing — and offering up solutions for — economic despair and a magnified sense of external threats.

“Instead of a moral lecture about how awful the inflamed levels of racism and misogyny are, which they are, you have to substitute for the politics of anger, fear and resentment with the economics of hope,” he said.

“Something concrete, something clear. A plan that you can put in the store window that says, ‘Here’s how you actually acquire a better future.’”

The PPC is becoming a vehicle for people who don’t see their views expressed in the larger debate on issues, said Stewart Prest, a political scientist at Simon Fraser University. And Prest questioned whether this was what Bernier had in mind when he launched the party after leaving the Conservatives, adding, he is still using this base’s concerns for political gain.

Bernier began tweeting last year, and has continued to tweet, about “radical multiculturalism” and the “cult of diversity” — both catchphrases cribbed from European populists.

“Radical multiculturalism sounds pretty clearly like code for open-door immigration policy or being accommodating to refugees,” Prest said.

In the meantime, democracies around the Western world are enshrined in a “macro debate” about who gets to “come in and stay” and under what circumstances, he added. But Canada is distinct in the debate — compared to other countries where populism is more aggressive, such as Hungary, where a neo-nationalist party took roughly 46 per cent of the vote — because of its strong tradition of embracing multiculturalism as part of its national identity.

Still, since the 2015 election, Canada has been “tinkering on the margins” of populist movement rhetoric, Prest said. The aftermath of the 2015 election saw the Conservative Party suffer internal strife on how to position itself on exactly immigration and cultural practices within the Canadian context.

Swinging too far to the right hasn’t always worked for them.

Prest pointed to Kellie Leitch, a Harper-era cabinet minister who was accused of dog-whistle politics after championing programs to screen every immigrant for “Canadian values” when vying for the Conservative Party leadership last year. She was condemned as anti-immigrant and nativist and left politics last year.

Notably at the time, leadership rival Bernier, who espoused libertarian views early in his career, dubbed Leitch’s campaign “karaoke Donald Trump.”

Prest said while the Conservative party attempted to “officially” limit that sort of discourse, it seemed to create an appetite for another electoral vehicle. And stories on immigration have a visceral hold on the imagination as they’re rooted in core concepts of identity.

That’s why Burnaby South is an initial test run for these values expressed in “Canadians first” arguments, Prest added.

“We are going to have a test to truly see how much support for that kind of messaging can emerge,” he said. “Canada has never had a debate about multiculturalism out loud, and it seems to be happening ahead of October’s election.”

Read more:

Maxime Bernier’s alt-right problem

Burnaby South People’s Party of Canada candidate alleges Conservative Party is ‘smearing’ her

The issues Burnaby residents say matter most in by-election — and where four parties stand on them

With files from Alex Ballingall and Omar Mosleh

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