The northern limit of the monsoon continued to pass through Mayabunder in the Middle Andamans on Wednesday. Conditions are favourable for its further advance into adjacent parts of the Bay of Bengal and the North Andaman Sea by Thursday.

Clouds have begun massing over the South Arabian Sea, with Maldives alerted to winds speeding up to 47 km/hr and gusting to 80 km/hr across its atolls, accompanied by heavy rain.

Rain in Maldives



Satellite pictures showed heavy thunderclouds hovering over the region, which lies to the south of Lakshadweep Islands and south-west of Sri Lanka.

A two-day outlook by the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) said that the prevailing westerly-to-northwesterly winds of up to 19 km/hr over the Central Arabian Sea may turn cyclonic, rising to 27 km/hr. This would under watch since signs of further evolution will have implications for the monsoon flows across the Arabian Sea.

Another GMDSS forecast said that the northwesterly-to-westerly winds over South-East Arabian Sea (off Kerala) and around the peninsular tip may start to turn westerly-to-southwesterly (which is monsoon-friendly) over the next two days.

Onset in Myanmar



Khin Cho Cho Shein, head of the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), wrote to BusinessLine that the monsoon advanced into Myanmar on May 15, three days in advance.

A low-pressure area in the Gulf of Martaban, an arm of the Andaman Sea in the southern part Myanmar, is currently driving the monsoon rain into the country, she said.

As per DMH’s outlook, the monsoon is expected to progressively cover the deltaic region, Central and North Myanmar latest by June 4.

The Sri Lankan Department of Meteorology has issued an alert to passing ships that strong to occasional very strong south-westerly winds will prevail along its coast, the seas around Maldives and the Comorin (around peninsular tip of India).

High winds, rough seas



The moderately strong winds over Lakshadweep too are expected to turn from north-westerly to south-westerly.

The seas are expected to be very rough off the Sri Lankan coast, and moderate over Maldives and the Comorin.

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction and the Climate Prediction Centre have maintained the outlook for enhanced rainfall along the Kerala coast during the next two weeks.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said the winds blowing into the Arabian Sea are expected to accelerate after May 20 but may slacken off the Kerala coast during the week that follows.