Less than three weeks remain in the NBA regular season and the injury-ravaged Golden State Warriors have lost four times in two weeks and in the Eastern Conference the Cleveland Cavaliers are closer to ninth place than they are to first. Could this be it? Could this really be the year we don’t get the same NBA finals matchup we always do?

Let’s take a look at all the things that could derail Warriors-Cavs, sport’s true tradition like no other.

Injuries

Warriors: The biggest threat to the Warriors, even more than facing the greatest player of this generation in the finals, has always been injury. Losing one of their stars wouldn’t doom the Warriors – recall they won an NBA title and then a record 73 regular-season games without Kevin Durant at their disposal – but it would make them much more vulnerable in the finals and even well before. Playing without two of their superstars, though? Or three? Then Golden State are just another playoff team.

Steph Curry has missed the last six games due to a right ankle injury, the same ankle that he had surgery on earlier in his career. He is reportedly due back in action on Friday night, but he won’t be joined by Durant. Durant remains out with a rib injury at least until early next month, right around the same time the Warriors hope Klay Thompson will return from a fractured thumb. Without its full complement of stars, the Warriors have dropped four of their last six games. That’s a run that would see them bounced in a playoff series, and it’s just the second time they’ve lost four times in six games since the 2014-15 season.

Verdict: Mild concern. Curry is almost back and Durant and Thompson will be in time for the playoffs. Barring any new injuries, opponents should get the Warriors at full-strength. Sorry, Western Conference.

Cavaliers: There is one Cleveland player who is not injured and he’s really the only one that matters: LeBron James. Kevin Love broke his hand in late January but returned Monday night in a win over the Bucks and put up 18 points and seven boards in just 25 minutes – and was solid again against the Raptors on Wednesday. Tristan Thompson and Larry Nance Jr are also banged up, but those gentlemen are also not LeBron James.

Verdict: No concern. The Cavaliers go where James takes them. As long as he’s healthy, Cleveland can get back to the finals even if he has to pull the rest of them along on a gurney.

Coaching

Steve Kerr has two NBA titles to his name. Photograph: Brett Davis/USA Today Sports

Warriors: The 53-18 Warriors already have three more losses than they have in any of their previous three seasons under Steve Kerr. But, no, Kerr is not exactly on the hot seat. Going 207-39 with two NBA titles in your first three years as a head coach brings a certain amount of job security with it. Ever since that record-setting 73-9 season ended in disappointment in the 2016 NBA finals, Kerr and the Warriors know their goals are all about the postseason. He’ll have them focused and ready to go.

Verdict: Zero concern. The Warriors have a coaching advantage in most any playoff matchup.

Cavaliers: Head coach Tyronn Lue is on an indefinite health leave, putting assistant Larry Drew in charge of the team. (That is, if you are of the belief that anyone other than LeBron has ever been in charge of the Cavaliers.) “For the most part we’ll do what we’ve been doing,” Drew said on Monday. “I don’t want to confuse the guys.”

Verdict: Zero concern. Mike Brown, Erik Spoelstra, David Blatt and Lue have all been the head coach of teams that reached the NBA Finals out of the Eastern Conference over the past 11 seasons. What did all of those coaches have in common? James was on their team. There’s no reason Drew can’t join that (prestigious?) list if Lue’s absence continues.

Internal dissent

Warriors: If injuries didn’t befall the great basketball super-team of our era, another theory was that infighting could undercut their potential. No team with that many stars would be happy with one basketball to go around – or so the idea went. But nearly two full years of the Durant Warriors are in the books now and there are precious few signs of turmoil. Everyone looked happy at Curry’s 30th birthday party a week ago and any frustrations Durant has are able to be relieved via angry posts on his burner Twitter accounts.

Verdict: Nothing to worry about. Kerr not only hired the best talent, but the people around him are happy to work together. Maybe he really should run for president.

Cavaliers: Roster strife on LeBron’s teams always seems one passive-aggressive social media post or unfollow away. The Cavs had what was reportedly a contentious team meeting in late January in which Kevin Love was called out for pulling himself out of a game. But Love has since received full-throated support from James and others after revealing his struggles with anxiety and the Cavs cleared out Derrick Rose and Isaiah Thomas at the trade deadline, creating a more harmonious locker room.

Verdict: Not a concern. LeBron seems to legitimately like his new team-mates. And even if he doesn’t, an angry LeBron is probably an even more dangerous LeBron come playoff time.

Rivals

Chris Paul and James Harden are likely to face the Warriors in the Western Conference finals. Photograph: Rick Bowmer/AP

Warriors: So what could give the Warriors and Cavaliers problems if not injuries, coaching problems or internal strife? The other teams that will take the court against them for a change. Barring a major collapse in the final weeks, the Rockets will have homecourt advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs, the Trailblazers just ran off 13 wins in a row, Oklahoma City has been one of the NBA’s best teams since mid-January and the Spurs will be a hard out if Kawhi Leonard is able to return from injury. There is no easy path to the finals for the Warriors this year.

Verdict: Moderate concern. The Warriors are still the favorites, but they won’t get through their conference this year without playing at their best.

Cavaliers: As remarkable as James’ career has been, all but the most ardent LeBron fanboys and girls will admit that he has been aided throughout his career by soft competition in the Eastern Conference. Kyrie Irving is on a talented – if injury afflicted – Celtics team now and the No1 seed Raptors showed on Wednesday night that Cleveland can only beat them if James is playing at a superhero level. Yes, that’s only two teams with a legitimate shot of unseating Team LeBron, but that’s a significant increase over the usual crop of zero. While seeing LeBron lose an Eastern Conference finals may feel like the Earth stopped spinning, Irving would tell us that the Earth doesn’t even spin in the first place.

Verdict: Legitimate concern. James might be having the best season of his career, yet’s he’s not a shoo-in to even make the NBA finals. That’s how much improvement the Eastern Conference has seen. Maybe next year it will be time for LeBron to give the West a try. In a Warriors uniform.