In college sports, a five-star recruit is the cream of the crop. They’re the best players in the nation for their graduating class, but how often does that talent translate to the professional level? How often do five-star recruits make it to the NFL? For this, I’m using the 24/7 Sports recruit rankings from 2000 up until 2012 and will be examining how many of these players were drafted or were on an NFL roster at some point. If a player is listed as an athlete, then they are categorized as whatever position they played.

2000

The 2000 high school class wasn’t a great group in terms of five-stars. D.J. Williams, the #1 overall player, played his four seasons at Miami before being drafted 17th overall by the Denver Broncos, where he played for eight and a half seasons. The best five-star in the class was #11 overall and #3 running back, Willis McGahee. Overall, the five-star players weren’t really elite level guys, which is evident in the fact that only a third of them were draft and less than half ended up on NFL rosters. The class also includes the likes of Terrell Suggs and Vince Wilfork, although both were four-star recruits.

2001

2001’s top-ranked player was running back Kevin Jones, who was drafted 30th overall by the Detroit Lions in 2004. By the end of 2009, Jones was already out of the league. The class’s #2 pro-style quarterback committed to Florida State but ended up not playing a snap of college football, as he decided to play baseball and was drafted #1 overall by the Minnesota Twins. That player was Joe Mauer, who ended up being an AL MVP and six-time all-star. The class also included DJ Shockley, who helped lead Georgia to an SEC title. This class did significantly better when it comes to pro potential as over half of the five-stars were drafted, nearly 70% were on an NFL roster at some point, and all six defensive linemen made it on to a roster. The only tight end recruit was Patrick Estes, who ended up playing as an offensive lineman.

2002

The nation’s top player in 2002 was Vince Young and he proved that he was deserving of the title during his time in college and later on in the pros. This class wasn’t as loaded with big-time names when it comes to five-stars as other classes though, but it doesn’t really affect the numbers as 62% of the class made it on to an NFL roster at some point. All six of the top running backs were NFL players and five of them were selected during the draft. Once again, defensive linemen were a pretty reliable bet to go to the league as five of the seven were pro players.

2003

2003’s class included the likes of Greg Olsen and Heisman-winner Reggie Bush. JaMarcus Russell was also a part of this group, but he was only a four-star player. The top recruit for 2003 was Ernie Sims, an inside linebacker that committed to Florida State. He went ninth overall in the 2006 NFL Draft to the Detroit Lions and would go on to play for five teams before retiring in 2014. The most reliable group in this class was the cornerbacks who saw all five of the top recruits be selected in the draft. Despite this, the overall percentage of five-stars going to the league continued to drop with this class as it went from 62% in 2002 to 61% in 2003.

2004

2004 was loaded with superstar five-star talented. Headlined by number one overall player Adrian Peterson, the class also featured Chad Henne, Marshawn Lynch, Ted Ginn Jr, and Calvin Johnson. Despite all of this phenomenal players, the class was yet another year that the reliability of five-stars going pro dropped, this time more drastically as it plummeted to 55%. The defensive linemen proved that they were usually almost a certain lock once again as seven of the eight went to the NFL.

2005

2005 stayed exactly the same for the percentage of five-stars to go pro, while the percentage drafted slightly improved. The class included Mark Sanchez, Johnathon Stewart, Martellus Bennett, Desean Jackson, Darren McFadden, and Michael Oher among the five-star recruits. The top player for the class was Eugene Monroe, who ended up being drafted 8th overall in 2009. He would go on to play until 2015.

2006

With the class of 2006, things finally started turning around in terms of NFL probability as the 69% of players drafted was the highest up until this point. The top player in the class was offensive lineman Andre Smith, who played his college career at Alabama before being drafted 6th overall in 2009 and is still in the league as of the 2017 season. The class included some other elite five-star players, including Tim Tebow, Matthew Stafford, CJ Spiller, Demarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, and Percy Harvin. Running backs were the story of this class with a whopping nine five-stars with seven of them being drafted.

2007

Dez Bryant, Aaron Hernandez, Golden Tate, and Rob Gronkowski were all coming into college this year, but they were all four-star players. Some of the biggest five-stars including Eric Berry, Jimmy Clausen, Ryan Mallett, Tyrod Taylor, and Cam Newton. It was a great class for quarterbacks and defensive linemen as four of the six top prospects in each position were drafted. The top player in the class was running back Joe McKnight, who was drafted by the Jets but was out of the league by 2015.

2008

Once again, there were a handful of NFL caliber quarterbacks that were four-stars, such as Robert Griffin III, Mike Glennon, Andrew Luck, and Blaine Gabbert. Out of the five-star quarterbacks, both EJ Manuel and Terrell Pryor were drafted. Other notable players in the draft included AJ Green, Julio Jones, and Patrick Petterson. Da’Quan Bowers was the top player. Bowers played in the NFL from 2011-2015 and signed a contract with the Edmonton Eskimos this past season. Receivers were the most likely to be drafted out of this class, stealing the crown away from the defensive linemen.

2009

2009 was the beginning of a big jump in the likelihood of a five-star recruit going to the NFL. It was the highest percentage of players to be drafted up to this point in time. Quarterbacks were the most likely to go pro as all five made it to the league with five being drafted. The class was headlined by the number one overall player Matt Barkley. Other notable players include Aaron Murray, Tahj Boyd, Manti Te’o, Vontaze Burfict, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Trent Richardson. Lamar Miller, Carlos Hyde, Eddie Lacy, Duron Carter, Alshon Jeffery, Jordan Reed, and Zach Ertz were all players that were four-stars in this loaded class.

2010

The class of 2010 doesn’t have a whole lot of guys that are top players in the NFL now or that were even elite players in college and only half of the players were drafted. Despite this, 84% of the class made it to the league in some capacity. The top player in the class was Ronald Powell, who spent most of his NFL career on practice squads. The class was headlined by Marcus Lattimore, Keenan Allen, CJ Mosley, and Alec Ogletree. Defensive linemen came close to reclaiming their crown as the most probable to make the league with seven of the eight making it, but all four linebackers, all four cornerbacks, and both safeties made it to the NFL.

2011

2011 was the best year for five-stars playing on Sundays. It was one of the most top-heavy classes ever. Some of the non-five-stars that were in the top fifty in their position included Cody Kessler, Teddy Bridgewater, Brett Hundley, Devonta Freeman, Melvin Gordon, Kelvin Benjamin, Odell Beckham Jr, Eli Rogers, Chris Conley, Michael Bennett, Johnny Manziel, Cardale Jones, Marcus Mariota, Jay Ajayi, and Brandin Cooks. The NFL talent in this class was insane. Some of the best five-stars included Jeff Driskel, Braxton Miller, Isaiah Crowell, De’Anthony Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Sammy Watkins, Ha Ha Clinton Dix, and Jadeveon Clowney. It’s no surprise that 87% of these five-stars went on to be NFL players. It’s amazing to see how many of the five-stars have become elite level guys considering this is the second smallest group of five-star players during the stretch of time. Five of six running backs went pro and all six defensive linemen made it to the league.

2012

In the final year of this study, we saw 78% of players make it to the NFL. This was by far the biggest class for any one position as thirteen defensive linemen were five-stars and for the first time, at least ten five-stars from the same position went pro. All five offensive linemen were drafted as well. Despite this year not having the highest percentage of players on a roster, it does have the highest percentage of players being drafted at 69%, which is higher than some classes’ percentage on a roster. The class included Jameis Winston, Keith Marshall, TJ Yeldon, Duke Johnson, Dorial Green-Beckham, Stefon Diggs, Jordan Jenkins, Dante Fowler, Josh Harvey-Clemmons, Landon Collins, and Shaq Thompson. This was also the class that brought us four-stars Todd Gurley, Amari Cooper, and Kenyan Drake.

Overall

Overall, only 65% of five-star players ever make it to the NFL and just half of the players are drafted. 65% is insanely high compared to other levels of players, but considering these guys are some of the best in the nation coming out of high school, you would expect even more of them to make it to the league in some capacity. Despite these “low” numbers, the most recent classes seem to be having an upward trend, so these numbers will likely rise in the coming years. I expected a number closer to the recent years, but the first few years were not as accurate. The biggest takeaway I got from this was the fact that the system is improving and five-stars are making the league at a more reliable rate. Cornerbacks were the most likely to go to the league while defensive linemen had the most representatives that made it to the NFL. Offensive linemen and outside linebackers have been the least probable to make an NFL roster. All in all, the five-star players in the upcoming classes should have pretty good chances to go to the NFL based on the trend of classes improving.

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