Recycled Climate Crock in the News Again June 24, 2015

I dealt with this one 3 years ago, but don’t be afraid to send it to your Uncle Dittohead or Aunt Teabag.

The Crock is that some kind of dip in the Sun’s energy is imminent, and that’s going to cool the planet. 3 years ago the story was wrapped around a distortion of published research, amplified and hyped by Fox News and a reliable Denial shill.

But physics has a way of asserting itself….

The Independent:

There is about a one-in-five chance of the Sun entering the same kind of cooling phase that allowed “frost fairs” to be held on the frozen River Thames 300 years ago – but scientists warned that the next solar transition will not be enough to save the world from global warming. A rapid decline in the Sun’s activity is making it increasingly likely that within the next half century the world will experience a “grand solar minimum”, which is thought to have contributed to the so-called Little Ice Age in Europe and parts of North America in the 17th and 18th Centuries. However, a study has found that the expected fall in global average temperature resulting from the natural, long-term fluctuations in solar activity will be dwarfed by the projected rise in temperatures due to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.

Financial Times: Overall, however, winters are likely to become milder, the researchers say. “What this study shows is that the sun isn’t going to save us from global warming,” said Met Office scientist, Sarah Ineson, lead author of the study. “But it could have impacts at a regional level that should be factored into decisions about adapting to climate change for the decades to come.”As for the idea that Londoners can look forward to ice-skating on the Thames any time soon, Ms Ineson has sobering news. “Frost fairs on the Thames during the Maunder Minimum owed much to the weir-like design of the old London Bridge,” she said. “Also, the building of the Thames embankments has greatly increased the flow. It’s these developments of the river that primarily ended large-scale freezing of the Thames.”

Responding to Climate Change: According to models which simulate conditions from 2050 to 2099, a possible “grand solar minimum” would cool the planet by just 0.1C. Parts of northern Europe would feel a larger cooling effect of between -0.4 and -0.8C. The planet could overheat by as much as 5C on pre-industrial levels in the same period, if greenhouse gas emissions follow current trends. “The research shows that the regional impacts of a grand solar minimum are likely to be larger than the global effect, but it’s still nowhere near big enough to override the expected global warming trend due to man-man change,” said Sarah Ineson, a scientist at Britain’s Met Office and lead author in a statement. “This means that even if we were to see a return to levels of solar activity not seen since the Maunder Minimum, our winters would likely still be getting milder overall.”