Patrick Beverley has been annoying lately.

If you’re like me, Beverley was a nobody until the first round playoff series between Houston and OKC when he exploded onto the scene. Beverley was everywhere against OKC –clearly demonstrating that he’s lightning fast, a pest on defense, and aggressive as they come (2.8 fouls per game this season). Considering also, that Kevin McHale and company apparently love Pat’s game — there’s a lot to like about Beverley as a fantasy asset.

Alas, his production thus far has been pedestrian at best; mixing useful stat lines with disappearing allusions.

When Beverley is on though, get the fuck out of his way. Check out his November 9th box score against CP3 and the Clips: 46%fg, 100%ft, 19pts, 3 3ptm, 3asts, 5rbds, 4 stls, 2 blks, 3to. That’s a line that makes all fantasy teams better. The problem is, however, that he hasn’t been ‘on’ very often. Anyway, let’s take a closer look at the numbers.

Beverley is only averaging 42%fg, 85%ft, 1.4 3ptm, 9.3pts, 2.1asts, 4.2 rbds, 1stls, 0.6 blks, 1.4to this season. Below is his game log with some noteworthy observations:

Game Log Game FG 3PT FT. Rebounds. Misc. Date Opp G Min M A % M A % M A % Off Def Tot Ast TO Stl Blk PF Pts Nov 19 BOS 1 23 6 9 .667 2 3 .667 2 2 1.000 0 4 4 1 1 0 0 3 16 Nov 16 DEN 1 27 4 7 .571 3 4 .750 0 0 .000 2 3 5 2 0 0 1 2 11 Nov 14 @NY 1 27 2 6 .333 1 5 .200 0 0 .000 1 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 5 Nov 13 @PHI 1 42 4 8 .500 1 5 .200 3 4 .750 3 6 9 5 0 3 1 4 12 Nov 11 TOR 1 24 0 5 .000 0 4 .000 1 2 .500 1 3 4 0 3 0 0 4 1 Nov 9 LAC 1 38 6 13 .462 3 8 .375 4 4 1.000 1 4 5 3 3 4 2 5 19 Nov 7 LAK 1 34 1 10 .100 1 5 .200 0 0 .000 3 1 4 4 1 1 1 5 3 Nov 5 @POR 1 29 5 9 .556 1 3 .333 1 1 1.000 4 0 4 1 0 0 0 2 12 Nov 4 @LAC 0 0 0 0 .000 0 0 .000 0 0 .000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nov 2 @UTA 0 0 0 0 .000 0 0 .000 0 0 .000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nov 1 DAL 0 0 0 0 .000 0 0 .000 0 0 .000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oct 30 CHA 1 10 2 4 .500 1 3 .333 0 0 .000 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 5

A lot of his production came from just a few big games — another game like this per week and his total production skyrockets.

Beverley currently ranks 9th in rebounding, 4th in blocks, 33rd in steals, and 19th in threes among point guards. This is the heart of Beverley’s upside and appeal.

among point guards. This is the heart of Beverley’s upside and appeal. Given his recent inconsistency, there’s a fair chance his rankings improve significantly.

His shooting has been ugly, hopefully a product of rust.

Categorical Marginal Analysis: Patrick Beverley vs Steve Blake

The other day my brother asked me if he should pick up Beverley or Steve Blake (51%owned), I responded by endorsing Beverley enthusiastically. I was wrong then, there’s no doubt about that — Blake dished out an unreal 16 assists a few nights ago. But take a look at the marginal breakdown between Beverley and Blake this season:

Steve Blake — 40%fg, 77%ft, 2.2 3ptm, 9.8pts, 7.3asts, 3.2rbds, 1.1 stls, 0blks, 1.8to

Patrick Beverley — 42%fg, 85%ft, 1.4 3ptm, 9.3pts, 2.1asts, 4.2 rbds, 1stls, 0.6 blks, 1.4to

On the margin Beverley wins 5-4

Blake takes: threes, points, assists, and steals

Beverley takes: fg%, ft%, boards, blocks, and turnovers.

Some other observations include:

Beverley shot 42%fg’s in his rookie season last year, as he gets rolling and gains experience, I’d expect him to become more efficient.

Blake is a career 40% fg shooter.

Blake offers a significant advantage in assists. If you’re struggling in assists, or simply value assists highly, Blake is probably a better option for now.

Blake’s role is not guaranteed the whole season, Beverley is a larger part of his teams long term plans, despite dealing with a timeshare.

Although Blake has been a better scorer so far, he’s never averaged more than 11 ppg since 2003. I wouldn’t expect his scoring numbers to maintain when Kobe’s back.

This is probably the best Steve Blake can play, whereas Beverley is just at the tip of the iceberg.

Regardless of recent history, I’d prefer to own Beverley. His explosiveness and versatility separates him from nearly everyone else on waivers; he simply has much more upside than most available players. Obviously Beverley is a work in progress: he’ll be inconsistent at times, and like many young players, inefficient too. He’s a gamble, there’s no doubt about that — but he’s a high ceiling guy with a medium-high floor. Just to be clear, I’m not buying his current production; Beverley’s value relies on what he might be doing a month from now. He hasn’t really even played well yet and he still ties hot commodity Steve Blake on the margin.

When he does get in a groove, though, Beverley will leave Blake in the dust. I’m not saying you should go drop Steve Blake right now, he is quite useful over the short term. All I’m saying is that when January rolls around, don’t be the guy watching Steve Blake struggle to post 10 and 5 when Beverley is lighting up nights like Nov. 9 more and more often.

Buy a powerball ticket, not a scratch off.

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stats courtesy of: rotoworld and yahoo! sports

gif courtesy of: Arrested Development via someone on tumbrl.

second photo courtesty of: http://www.fanpop.com