Seattle could see the pandemic coming as, to the east, town after town fell. When Spanish flu at last hit the Pacific coast the city was ready. Theatres, saloons, churches and schools were shuttered for five months.

In Saint Paul, Minnesota, the response was different. Worried, perhaps, about the economic effects, the town dithered and reopened after a month. Years later, as Seattle boomed, its economy was still suffering.

Economists believe that the 1918 flu pandemic could offer us a parable. For those countries weighing up the economic cost of intervention versus the lives saved, it is part of growing evidence that suggests the two are not mutually exclusive.

The study, by researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Massachusetts Institute