Rob Ford remains competitive in the mayoral election even after taking a seven-week leave from the campaign, the latest poll suggests.

Ford, who plans to return to the city next Monday, trailed Olivia Chow by seven percentage points in a survey conducted on Monday night. Chow beat him by 18 percentage points in a survey on June 6.

That poll was by far Ford’s worst of the campaign. The new poll was his best since mid-April, and it was the first since mid-April in which he was ahead of John Tory. This lends credence to campaign manager Doug Ford’s claim that the mayor’s prolonged absence has not hurt his standing.

Chow had 34 per cent support, Ford 27 per cent, Tory 24 per cent. David Soknacki hit 6 per cent, the highest he has been at any point of the campaign. Karen Stintz was at 3 per cent, her worst showing in relation to Soknacki and tied for her worst showing overall. Another 6 per cent of respondents said they didn’t know who they would vote for.

Despite Ford’s gains in the five-candidate contest, the poll’s overall results offered more evidence that he has a low support ceiling that will make it difficult for him to improve enough to win.

Fifty-eight per cent of the poll’s respondents said they want Ford to resign. And he was viewed favourably by few people who did not already plan to vote for him: his approval rating was 32 per cent, the second-lowest of his term.

Tory retained the highest approval rating: 61 per cent. Chow’s was 57 per cent. Soknacki, at 47 per cent, and Stintz, at 41 per cent, both beat Ford easily.

The Forum Research survey of 890 Toronto residents was conducted via interactive voice response automated telephone calls. The margin of error was three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Since Tory is strongest among older voters who are traditionally most likely to vote and Chow among younger voters, the true support gap between him and Chow might be smaller than the headline numbers suggest.

Stintz’s support has tumbled steadily since the fall, when she polled in the low double-digits. The poll showed Soknacki, a former city councillor, had more support, even though only 63 per cent of respondents said they are aware of him; 80 per cent are aware of Stintz.

Before Ford entered treatment for substance abuse, he urged voters to focus on his fiscal record rather than his “personal” problems. He retains an advantage on money matters: 31 per cent said Ford would best handle the budget, 27 per cent said Tory, 26 per cent Chow.

Ford is also competitive on transit. Asked which candidate has a plan that will “get Toronto moving again,” 27 per cent said Chow, 26 per cent Ford, 23 per cent Tory.

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As usual, Ford was strongest with voters who make less than $40,000, voters age 34 or younger, the least-educated voters, and voters in Scarborough he has long targeted with his “subways, subways, subways” mantra. He dominated, with 49 per cent support, among people with a high school education or less; Chow had 25 per cent, Tory 17 per cent.

Election day is Oct. 27, four months away. Struggling candidates often drop out of the race in the weeks before the vote. In a three-candidate race, Chow had 37 per cent, Tory 29 per cent, Ford 28 per cent.

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