Cameron Artis-Payne, Nick Marshall

Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall (14) signals touchdown as Auburn running back Cameron Artis-Payne (44) carries the ball over the goal line during the 2013 SEC Football Championship game between Auburn and Missouri at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta on Saturday, December 7, 2013. (Julie Bennett/bennett@al.com)

(Julie Bennett)

AUBURN, Alabama -- Auburn is set to contend for a national championship, but a tough road schedule could prove to be the Tigers' downfall.



College football prognosticator Phil Steele sees Auburn starting the 2014 season ranked in the top five nationally with the potential of posting record-breaking numbers during Gus Malzahn's second season in 2014.



"Auburn is a better team this year than they were last year," Steele told AL.com. "... They did benefit from a couple of plays but overall this year's team, I think, would be favored over last year's team, easily."



Auburn loses left tackle Greg Robinson and running back Tre Mason to the NFL, but Steele sees Auburn adjusting without the stars. No, he said, the problem is the Tigers' schedule. "There are a lot of good teams on that schedule, and even though the numbers may not improve, they are an improved team," he explained.



An early-season road trip to Kansas State awaits on a Thursday night, and the Tigers end their SEC schedule with back-to-back road games at rivals Georgia and Alabama for the first time in school history.



The trip to Kansas State on Sept. 18 should worry Auburn fans, Steele said. He points to the Wildcats' 35-25 loss to uptempo Baylor in Manhattan, Kansas last season. The Bears entered the game averaging an incredible 700-plus yards and 70 points per game, but were held to 446 yards of offense. The Wildcats also led 25-21 early in the fourth quarter.



"Bill Snyder has had success at home against high-flying offenses," Steele said.



Other trap games include trips to Ole Miss and Mississippi State, and a home game against South Carolina. Steele rates Auburn's schedule the fifth-toughest in the country.



Steele's computers predict Auburn's pass production to jump to 245.1 yards per game, which would be an improvement of 41.7 percent compared to 2013. He also believes Nick Marshall -- the first second-year starter at quarterback in Malzahn's college career -- will average more than 6 yards per carry.



"I do believe we're going to see an increase in his passing ability," Steele said.



Steele calls for Auburn to average 38.6 points and 279.9 yards rushing. The defense should improve, too, with one of the best defensive lines in the SEC, he said, and will allow 382 yards per game, an improvement of 9.2 percent from last season.



In the end, Auburn will contend for a national title, Steele said, and the Iron Bowl winner will represent the SEC West in the conference championship.

Steele's preseason magazine hits newsstands June 24.