DES MOINES, Iowa — In the broader battle for the GOP’s presidential nomination, you could compare Marco Rubio to a surfer out in the deep, patiently waiting for a wave.

On Tuesday here, it was a bit of a wipeout.


With his family in tow, Rubio dutifully braved the miserable weather and made the requisite stops at the Iowa State Fair. He admired prized livestock, performed his stump speech from atop the famous soapbox and, as they all do, tended to a cut of loin on a hot grill at the Pork Tent as cameras clicked away.

“What kind of burgers are these?” he absentmindedly asked the congressman at his side before taking a single bite of tenderloin sandwiched into a white bun.

All the while, a video was going viral showing Rubio’s light toss Monday evening of a football hitting an Iowa kid in the face.

When he stopped at a booth to participate in an informal weeklong poll of fair-goers, who drop kernels of corn into Mason jars of the presidential candidate they support, his own jar was almost empty.

“Oh, it’s the second jar,” he observed, dropping in his lone kernel (Donald Trump is on his seventh jar six days into the fair). “That’s good.”

While he is indulging the media’s insatiable appetite for photo-ops and laughing off his own pratfalls, Rubio and his campaign evince a quiet confidence, a deeper awareness that none of it matters — not the corn kernel poll at the fair or the more methodical surveys showing him stuck in the mid-single digits everywhere.

Rubio World does not share the political class’s consternation about which of the early states he plans to focus on or why he’s yet to shoot to the front of the pack. The answer, of course, is obvious: He doesn’t want to yet.

“Show me the candidate who was first place in August who ended up winning in February,” said Terry Sullivan, Rubio’s campaign manager, after an event at a downtown coffee shop Tuesday. “What’s hot in the summer isn’t in winter.”

Sullivan’s is a simple strategy to leave Republicans in early states, doted on far more by other candidates to this point, wanting more of Rubio — recognizing that, however many waves may come, the one you want to ride won’t crest until December or January.

It may be Jeb Bush’s self-bestowed nickname, but if there is truly a “tortoise” in this race, it’s Rubio. And while political observers here understand the strategy, many share a sense that Rubio may be playing it too cool in the state that is, with enthusiasm waning for Scott Walker and with Jeb Bush stuck at 5 percent in the polls, actually his for the taking.

“He could be the sleeper here, but he’s not committing to the state” said Doug Gross, a prominent attorney who supported Mitt Romney four years ago and remains uncommitted. “To me, his is the biggest missed opportunity so far.”

“No one wants to peak in August, but you’re going to put yourself in a bind if you don’t leave yourself time to get everywhere,” said Craig Robinson, a GOP activist who runs The Iowa Republican, a website focused on the caucuses. “The sky’s the limit for this guy but the has to make himself available for Iowans.

“There’s no excitement here for Jeb, but his campaign is doing all the right things,” Robinson continued, noting that Bush’s campaign has around 10 staffers in the state now and is opening its second Iowa office this week.

“Marco Rubio would absolutely destroy him if he engaged in Iowa. He doesn’t have the negatives Jeb has with the enthusiasm gap. I think Iowa’s his opportunity, but if he misses that, I think winning the nomination gets very difficult.”

Rubio now has five paid staffers, working along with two unpaid advisers. (The campaign had planned to have Rubio mark the opening of its office here on Wednesday morning, although the day’s two events here were cancelled so he and his family could get back to Miami where his children begin school on Wednesday.)

“We have a plan to be here a lot and to do very well here,” said state Sen. Jack Whitver, Rubio’s state chairman. “And, frankly, the people here like him, and the more we get him in front of people, the more votes we win. After that debate, we saw a big uptick in the amount of people interested and now open-minded to him, so we feel very good about where we’re at.

“We plan to play here, we have a significant amount of ads bought and we plan to do well.”

Rubio’s campaign has already reserved more than $5 million in Iowa TV air time for the fall and winter as part of an early $10 million buy across the four states at the front of the primary calendar.

While Bush’s Right to Rise super PAC is sitting on an overwhelming financial advantage, Rubio’s campaign has the most cash on hand at the start of the third quarter of any Republican in the field, and more coming in.

“His debate performance helped his fundraising,” said Brian Ballard, a Tallahassee lobbyist who is supporting Bush but also has close ties to Rubio. “I know that some guys from Florida who’d been sitting on their hands sent him some money.”

When reporters asked Rubio Tuesday morning why it had been nearly a month since his last trip to Iowa, he pointed to the obvious excuses: his work in the Senate, the importance of fundraising and visiting a number of important states.

“We look forward to coming back quite often, especially as we get closer to the caucuses,” he said.

Anna Dixon of Bettendorf listens to Marco Rubio speak during a visit to the Iowa State Fair, Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2015, in Des Moines. | AP Photo

When he took to the soapbox, a speaking stage at the fair sponsored by the Des Moines Register, the rain was picking up again. Standing under a tent, the soaring, sunny rhetoric belied the weather.

“The 21st century can be greater than the 20th century. It is fully within our reach,” Rubio said, outlining a plan to “modernize” the country’s economy, its higher education system and to keep the homeland safe.

In making each point, Rubio, 44, emphasized how “the old ways no longer work.” During his remarks at the fair and later during the lunch hour before 100 people inside West End Salvage and Coffee Shop, he drew again on his own biography as the son of Cuban immigrants.

“America doesn’t owe me anything. But I have a debt to America I will never repay. This is a nation that literally changed the history of my family,” he said, asserting that he, better than any of his rivals, can assure that “the American Dream doesn’t just survive, but that it reaches more people and changes more lives than ever before.”

Rubio’s rhetorical gifts and inspirational background often draw comparisons to President Barack Obama, which can make campaign staffers wince (like Obama in 2007, Rubio also opted to drive bumper cars at the fair Monday night). But there’s no escaping that those unique abilities are also part of his appeal.

“We need someone who can communicate that conservative message,” Whitver, introducing Rubio, told the crowd at the coffee shop. “There is no more articulate messenger for the conservative movement than Marco Rubio. If we want to accomplish our goals as conservatives, we need someone who can sell that message.”

That’s what Iowa Republicans found in Sen. Joni Ernst, whose personal charisma and broad appeal helped her win a competitive primary last year en route to a hard-fought victory in November. Rubio’s staff, three of whom (Alex Conant, Jahan Wilcox and Todd Harris) worked on Ernst’s campaign, see a similar path for him based on a broad appeal — a candidate who’s “conservative but not scary,” as Sullivan puts it.

But conservatives here are still waiting to be won over. And they want more than speeches.

“He’s an up and comer. The question is: this time or next time?” said Tony Vola, who came from Sailor Township with his wife to hear Rubio Tuesday. “He’d be a fine vice president, but I don’t know yet if he can be president. I know he can talk. I want to see him lead.”