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In the interim, Trudeau’s early promise as a democratic reformer has taken a beating because of his repeated meddling in nomination battles he promised would be open, most egregiously that of erstwhile Tory Eve Adams. And his early casual openness, driven by the need to avoid mistakes, has given way to a more guarded public persona. Some of this, such as the tempering of earlier florid ticks in his speaking style, has helped him. But the loss of spontaneity has not.

Trudeau’s difficulty now is that while he was trying to keep out of trouble, husbanding his lead in the polls, waiting for the big policy reveals to swing momentum in his favour, events were moving. Mulcair continued slapping Tory enforcers around in the Commons, solidifying his reputation as a principled bulldog. Then, Rachel Notley showed New Democrats can be competitive anywhere.

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There is one obvious way for Trudeau to leap this ditch, though it carries risk. He could try to tap the same vein Notley recently did in Alberta, by reclaiming his place as the anti-politician politician. He could speak repeatedly and off the cuff with authenticity and wit, scrumming until reporters are tired of the sound of his voice. All summer long, he could wade into town halls and other unscripted settings, giving the lie to the most damaging point in the narrative prepared for him by his opponents, which is that he’s in over his head.

Trudeau would have to do all this, of course, without making a single major gaffe. The pressure would be brutal. But isn’t that moment fast approaching anyhow? If the trend revealed by EKOS and a smattering of other recent polls holds, Trudeau’s days as the favourite are over. He needs to drop the gloves (or lace them up, depending on which sports metaphor you prefer), and tackle the Conservative narrative head on.

Otherwise he runs the risk of being permanently defined by it, just as Michael Ignatieff and Stephane Dion were before him.