As expected last week, today saw the heat that had reached South Australia yesterday spread into Victoria and drive demand in both regions out of the green zone towards the red zone.

As seen in this snapshot taken from NEM-Watch from 7:45 NEM time this morning, the demand across all five regions is in the “green zone” (being mid-range between the all-time maximum for the region and recent year minimums).

Later in the day the temperatures did not disappoint – with Adelaide well above 40 degrees at 11:30 NEM time, and Melbourne climbing towards 40.

As a result we see in another NEM-Watch snapshot that the demand in those regions has risen out of the green zone and into yellow and orange, with demand forecast for this evening had risen further – above 10,000MW in Victoria, and above 31,500MW across the NEM:

At 13:05 the dispatch price in South Australia spiked on the back of the continuing growth in demand and (as often happens when it’s hot in the state) low production from wind generation in the region. As shown in this updated snapshot from NEM-Watch, the demand forecast for later in the day is still for NEM-wide demand approaching 32,000MW – though we note that an even higher demand is forecast for tomorrow, with price spikes forecast as well.

We see in this snapshot the temperature across the south-east has continued to climb and demand in Victoria has passed 9,400MW on its way to what’s forecast to be a peak demand today only 200MW below the all-time record set in the very hot summer 2008-09.

TO BE CONTINUED… (here)