A study from York University has found that Canada is on track to have between 4,000 and 10,000 positive cases of COVID-19 by March 31 if we stick to social distancing and public health intervention measures.

In the most pessimistic scenario, Canada could expect to see as many as 15,000 new cases by that same date if public health measures are not enforced.

“If measures are enforced, in the optimistic scenario, we can expect that this number is 4,000 cases,” said Nicola Bragazzi, a post-doctoral fellow with York University who co-authored the study.

“Our study wanted to predict the trend of the COVID-19 outbreak in Canada in the absence of implementation and escalation of public health interventions,” Bragazzi said.

The study used a “model free” approach that did not make assumptions about how the outbreak would proceed, as the pandemic is still ongoing. The study instead uses pure data about the outbreak.

“We noticed that the graph of the epidemic was similar to the graph of Italy in the early stage of (their) outbreak,” Bragazzi explained.

Additionally, “Canada is similar to Italy in terms of age group and demographic profile … and also because Canada has a public health capacity which is quite similar to that of Italy” as far as how many hospital beds are available for emergencies.

These measures “can spare (up to) 11,000 cases, if properly enforced and implemented,” Bragazzi said. “If the compliance … of the people to self isolate is high, we can observe a positive effect of the measures.”

He said the findings mean that Canada does not currently need to take further strict measures, such as implementing the Emergencies Act in order to achieve a lower number of positive cases.

Data made available by the federal government as of Wednesday evening shows that 58 per cent of all COVID-19 cases in Canada were due to exposure within the community. As of Monday, 44 per cent were due to community spread. Meanwhile, 40 per cent were either exposed while travelling or because they were exposed to a traveller that had returned to Canada.

In Italy, the government has gone a step further than Canada by banning travel within the country. Mayors in some Italian cities have taken to social media to demand that people comply with orders to stay inside, while police are fining those that don’t comply.

The outbreak has prompted discussion about whether the federal government will move to implement the Emergencies Act — the successor to the War Measures Act — in order to keep the outbreak at bay.

The scale of the pandemic is “clearly something that we haven’t seen in our lifetime,” said Trudo Lemmens, professor of health law and policy with the University of Toronto and the Dalla Lana School of Public Health, though he questioned whether it was necessary to use the act given that provincial and local authorities are “already in a position to impose most essential measures.”

“Restrictions on individual liberty, suspending various businesses and places where people meet, and other measures to impose physical distancing are of course appropriate in a public health crisis,” Lemmens said. However, he added “We have to be careful ... that these restrictions can be realistically implemented and governments or local authorities should take extra measures to implement these measures fairly.”

Public health emergencies fall under the Emergencies Act, Lemmens explained. “We can do a lot without necessarily involve invoking the emergency measures (act), but it would provide a clear basis” if the crisis deepens for the federal government to regulate the distribution and availability of essential goods, services and resources.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

A major issue is that the pandemic is new and information is limited. Data on what prevention measures work best are “not necessarily completely there,” Lemmens said.

Current data reflects that “physical distancing is essential,” but the method to encourage or enforce physical distance is still being worked out, he said.

“It will be important to gather data and social data” about how people respond to health messaging in different countries, Lemmens said.

Finding out why “people respect certain rules, or certain calls for action,” as well as what demographics are best reached by those calls will help influence the methods governments use when we face another pandemic, he explained.

Correction - March 27, 2020: This article was edited from a previous version that misstated the name of the Emergencies Act. As well, the Emergencies Act is the successor to the War Measures Act. It replaced the War Measures Act in 1988.

Read more about: