High-speed rail advocates in California have long dreamed of the day when bullet trains would revolutionize transportation, and they're counting on voters to pony up nearly $10 billion to bankroll what would be the nation's first true high-speed rail line.

Proponents have been pushing high-speed rail for 25 years and always fallen short. But they say a confluence of events – rising fuel prices, gridlocked roads, jammed airports and concern about global warming – present the best chance yet to bring bullet trains to America. "We have a perfect storm ... those four factors make a perfect case for high-speed rail," Ron Diridion of the state's High Speed Rail Authority, recently told the San Francisco Chronicle.

We've heard this before. There once was talk of a bullet train between Los Angeles and San Diego, and of a line linking L.A. and Las Vegas. Both were shot down. Will things be any different this time, and will America finally follow Europe and Japan in embracing high-speed rail? If it does, it will require changing how we live and how our cities grow.

Proposition 1A would authorize $9.95 billion in bonds to finance the first phase of an 800-mile high-speed rail line that would connect the San Francisco Bay Area with Los Angeles. Several transportation, environmental and business groups say it would offer a faster, cheaper and greener travel while easing the strain on California's notoriously backed-up highways and airports. Trains would make the 400-mile run between the two cities at about 220 mph (considerably faster than the 150 mph top speed attained by the Acela Express linking Washington, D.C. with Boston). The trip would take about 2 1/2 hours and cost riders $55, according to the High Speed Rail Authority.

The project is expected to cost $32 billion, with extensions to San Diego and Sacramento adding another $10 billion. State officials are banking on taxpayers, Uncle Sam and private investors sharing the costs equally. Construction could begin as early as 2011 and trains might be running by 2020. Advocates claim the largest public works project in state history would create as many as 160,000 construction jobs and spur 400,000 more jobs once the system is up and running.

Some opponents warn the final tab could be closer to $80 billion. Regardless of the final cost, taxpayer advocates and the California Chamber of Commerce argue California can't afford it. Repaying the $9.95 billion bond issue over 30 years would cost $19.4 billion, with annual payments hitting $647 million. That's a lot of coin for a state that already spends 6.1-percent of its budget on debt service. Opponents also say final tab might be closer to $80 billion. Even some rail advocates and transportation experts say the current proposal would never work.

"It's technologically impossible to do what the High Speed Rail Authority claims can be done, for any amount of money," Prof. James Moore, director of the transportation engineering program at the University of Southern California, told the Los Angeles Times. "When it comes to predicting the actual cost of systems like this, I just say a zillion and leave it at that."

Voters may be leery of spending any money, given the state of the economy, the collapse of Wall Street and California's budget deficit. And then there's the fact a Metrolink commuter train crashed in L.A. last month, killing 25 people. That could make the high-speed line a tough sell.

Of course, it isn't enough to simply build a high-speed rail line. As the Chronicle notes this morning, if bullet trains are going to work here like they do in Europe and Japan, California – and, by extension, America – must develop and live in denser cities while expanding public transportation. "It's a lifestyle change we're talking about," Noriyuki Shikata of the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs says. "It affects how people lead their lives."

It remains to be seen whether people are pony up for high-speed rail, let alone make the changes that might be needed to ensure its success, but polls show the proposition passing by a slim margin.

Post updated 11:45 a.m. and 1:00 p.m. PST.

Image by California High Speed Rail Authority.