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President Obama won Michigan by 10 points in 2012 and the GOP got the blame for the government shutdown. But Republicans' election chances still look rosy here in 2014.

(AP Photo)

The government shutdown was bad for Republicans, but probably not bad enough to cost them any congressional seats in Michigan next year.

Democrats have seen signs of life in polling and in national congressional rankings, as Americans blame the GOP for the 16-day shutdown that cost the economy $24 billion.

And President Obama won Michigan by 10 points in 2012. But the congressional delegation is split 9-5 in the GOP's favor (they drew the maps in the last redistricting process) and that's how it's likely to stay in 2014.

Still, the Cook Political Report last week changed its rankings in 15 races, moving 14 in the Dems' direction. Two races are in Michigan -- the 3rd District seat held by U.S. Rep. Justin Amash (R-Cascade Twp.) and the 7th District seat held by U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Tipton).

The report shifts Amash's Grand Rapids-based seat from solid to likely Republican. The district has a strong GOP base, which means it's a long shot for Dems -- who don't have a candidate -- to topple one of the shutdown's biggest cheerleaders.

Amash's biggest threat is in the Republican primary, with Grand Rapids businessman Brian Ellis jumping in. He's trying to outflank Amash on issues like abortion, since he voted "present" to bar tax dollars from Planned Parenthood.

But although GOP establishment types have dreamed of bouncing the two-term Tea Party favorite, they'll face an uphill battle. You can't get further right than Amash in fiscal policy -- he's twice voted against GOP budgets he said didn't cut spending enough -- and the powerhouse DeVos family is funding him.

Cook moved Walberg's Jackson-based seat from likely to lean GOP. Another Tea Partier, Walberg has long been a Democratic target, with now-gubernatorial candidate Mark Schauer beating him in 2008.

But Walberg took back his seat during the 2010 GOP wave and has a nice perch, representing conservative southern counties.

Democrats basically conceded the seat in '12 with a no-name candidate, but former House Speaker Pro-Tem Pam Byrnes is running in 2014. U.S. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has thrown some cash her way.

Dems are heartened by recent MoveOn.org polling showing Walberg losing to a generic Democrat by 8 points. But people don't get to vote for "Generic Democrat" on the ballot, so such polls are not terribly accurate.

To underscore that point, MoveOn's poll also showed safer-than-safe, longtime Republicans losing. "Generic Dem" would trounce U.S. Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) by 13 points. U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Howell) would lose by 3 points.

Trust me. No one at the Democratic National Congressional Committee will spend a penny to oust Upton and Rogers.

There are two other seats that Democrats covet. The northern 1st District represented by U.S. Rep. Dan Benishek (R-Crystal Falls) has long been a battleground, but he's crushing Democrat Jerry Cannon in fundraising.

There's also the 11th District held by U.S. Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (R-Milford), considered an accidental congressman, since the reindeer rancher won in '12 after U.S. Thad McCotter was felled by a signature-gathering scandal.

Bankruptcy attorney David Trott wants to knock Bentivolio out in the primary, and is raising serious cash. Pelosi is recruiting former Secretary of State candidate Jocelyn Benson, but she only stands a chance in the western Wayne and Oakland County district if Bentivolio is the nominee.

Election Day is more than a year away, and it's not hopeless for Democrats, who can raise money, define their opponents and hope the GOP makes more mistakes.

But it looks like clever redistricting will be enough to save Republicans' bacon next year.