Coloradans narrowly support a statewide tax increase for schools and bigger setbacks for drilling, according to a new poll from the University of Colorado’s American Politics Research Lab.

In the first public poll results released on these issues, 58 percent of respondents said they would vote yes for Amendment 73, which would raise taxes on individuals making more than $150,000 a year and corporations. Because it’s a constitutional amendment, it needs 55 percent to pass.

Meanwhile, 52 percent of voters said they support Proposition 112, which would require new oil and gas wells to be at least 2,500 feet away from buildings.

“I don’t think anything is in the bag,” said Anand Sokhey, one of the poll’s authors and a CU associate professor of political science. “There’s still time for those numbers to move around, especially with independent voters.”

The online survey of 800 registered voters was conducted between Oct. 12 and 17. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. The third annual poll commissioned by CU was completed by YouGov, a worldwide polling company.

Historically, online polls are less accurate than live interviews over the phone. However, YouGov has a B rating from FiveThirtyEight, a news organization that specializes in covering polls. YouGov accurately predicts outcomes 88 percent of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight.

A 2016 poll conducted by CU with a different polling firm accurately predicted the outcome in races and ballot issues it surveyed voters on. However, it was less accurate in predicting the spread between winners and losers.

The 2018 poll also found:

In the race for governor, Democrat Jared Polis has a 12-point lead over Republican Walker Stapleton, 54 percent to 42 percent.

Sixty-three percent of voters said they would vote yes on Amendment 74, which would require state and local governments to compensate property owners when regulations reduce their value.

More than 80 percent of voters support Proposition 111, which would cap the interest rate on payday loans at 36 percent.

Voters are also strongly in favor of an effort to take politics out of congressional redistricting: 78 percent said they support Amendment Y. If passed, it would create a new commission of Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliated voters to draw congressional boundaries.

The poll didn’t ask voters about Amendment Z, which would create the same redistricting structure for state House and Senate districts, or two transportation measures, Propositions 109 and 110.

Denver Post Voter Guide

Read all of The Denver Post’s election coverage — including stories, endorsements and candidate Q&As — in our 2018 Voter Guide.

Sokhey said he was surprised to see such large spreads in a variety of contests, including the governor’s race. While other public polls released since the primary have consistently put Polis in the lead, it has been by smaller margins.

“I think Polis has been a bit more effective in terms of getting himself out there,” he said.

The survey also had a 9-point spread between Democrats and Republicans on a generic ballot question for Congress. Fifty-three percent of respondents said they’d vote for a Democrat for the U.S. House of Representatives compared to 43 percent for a Republican. The results track with other national polls, Sokhey said.

“It’s not a good year for Republicans — nationally,” he said. “They’re running against the wind.”

President Donald Trump’s approval rating — 41 percent in the CU poll — is an apparent drag on Republicans here in Colorado and nationally. Colorado’s unaffiliated voters are especially unhappy with the president: 56 percent disapprove of his job in the White House.

“We seem to be seeing Colorado mirror the national trend and narrative,” Sokhey said.

Congress’ approval is even worse, according to the poll. Nearly 75 percent of those polled said they had an unfavorable opinion of the nation’s lower chamber.