Narendra Modi's show of strength is Amethi may be vital to dent the dynasty's hold, but it may not be enough to end dynasty. For that to happen, alternate centres of power have to be created in the Congress beyond the Gandhis

If the purpose of the Narendra Modi extravaganza in Amethi yesterday (5 May) was to give another push to the tottering image of India’s longest-serving political dynasty, now into its fifth generation (Motilal, Jawaharlal, Indira, Rajiv and now Rahul-Priyanka), he could not have chosen a better time or venue.

Though the Gandhis have been defeated before in their bailiwick – in 1977, for example – that defeat was largely related to the huge mistake made by Sanjay Gandhi in forcing compulsory sterilisation on an unwilling population. It is worth recalling that just as north India destroyed the Congress, the south went the whole hog for the same party. The defeat of 1977 was thus an aberration in the long history of the Gandhi dynasty’s success in politics.

But 2014 could be different. This time, if Modi is successful, he could actually put the dynasty on the road to permanent decline. Because it will fade out not when it gets defeated by an unexpected wave in one election, but when it is comprehensively defeated on broadly positive planks – like development, stability and governance.

These have always been the calling cards of the Gandhi dynasty, and if these very planks are used to defeat the Gandhis, the country would have crossed a watershed. It would mean the country is willing to let go of its infatuation with empty family-led emotionalism.

Modi is obviously an aggressive campaigner, and the purpose of his Amethi rally was to mock the Gandhis in their own homes so that the people start looking at them as mere mortals, and not demi-gods.

If you want to end dynasty, you need to show that they can be beaten, and there is no magic or aura surrounding them. This is exactly why Modi took the approach of aggressively debunking the entire family’s performance. If he manages to show that Rahul can be defeated, or even brought down several pegs, he has probably done serious damage to the aura of invincibility surrounding the dynasty.

From a psychological point, he has already scored several points.

First, he made Rahul’s failure manifest by not only mocking him as Shehzada, but by forcing his sister to come and campaign for him.

Second, even though there is a media consensus that Priyanka has more charisma than Rahul, and could thus be the dynasty’s attack weapon of the future, the fact remains that she has not been questioned seriously about anything. The media has been following her around like Mary’s lamb, but her best lines have been just empty shells.

For example, she said BJP leaders were running away “like rats”. The media played this up as though it was a great comeback line. Was it? Modi just disproved her by landing up in Amethi in full force. Not only that, the people actually missing in action are her brother Rahul and hubby Robert Vadra. The last time, the latter was roaring around in his mobike claiming he could join politics too. “I would definitely contest if the people so desired.” It took Priyanka to make a denial on his behalf. And now, she is the one defending Vadra on his dubious land deals.

Third, Priyanka’s defence against Modi’s attacks on her family, including her father, was family honour. Modi had said Rajiv had insulted Telugu pride by behaving badly with a Congress CM (T Anjiah), and that Rahul had insulted the PM by calling his ordinance to protect convicted MPs as “nonsense”. Priyanka did not address any of the points made, which are a matter of record. Instead, The Hindustan Times quoted her as saying this: “They have insulted my martyr-father. The people of Amethi will not forgive them for this.”

Essentially, Priyanka is saying no one can say anything about her father or her family, and is hoping that Amethi’s voters will think this defence is more important than their broader welfare. A feudal expectation, no doubt.

The big question, though, is whether all the Modi rhetoric is enough to send the dynasty packing. I doubt it. It will actually need one or two consecutive defeats for the dynasty to diminish, as is evident from the Congress party’s resurgence in 1980 after a drubbing in 1977, and its second coming in 2009, after a weak win in 2004.

A clue to Modi’s thinking on dynasty came in today’s interview in The Times of India (probably his best so far), where he has said that if the Congress party fails to obtain more than 100 seats, it could be in decline. He said: “Their target is to somehow cross the hundred-seat mark so that their leadership of the Congress party is not challenged. However, I see all possibility of the Congress falling below the hundred seat mark and if that happens, there will be a serious churning within Congress over the issue of leadership.”

On the emergence of Priyanka as a future political rival, he seemed unsure. He said: “It is for the Congress party to take these decisions post the election results. However, it seems odd that a national party like the Congress should not be able to think beyond the Gandhi family for providing leadership.”

This is where Modi may be underestimating the strength of dynastic thinking in the Congress. The truth is political parties represent ideas and culture, and with every turn of the economic or cycle, defeated ideas come back into the reckoning.

The BJP itself fell to two seats in 1984, but bounced back in 1989. It peaked in 1998-99, and then crashed in 2004 and 2009. It is bouncing back again this time.

So, it is not the number of seats the Congress wins that matters to the survival of dynasty, but the inability of the Congress to produce leaders within who can challenge the Gandhi clan. The last major revolt involved the exit of Sharad Pawar, but it did not lead to further revolts.

To end dynasty, the Congress must develop real alternate centres of power.

This did not happen in the past because the dynasty never allowed independent leaders to emerge in the states and till this happens the party will remain dynastic.

If Modi really wants to end dynasty, the answer lies in how he handles Congress Chief Ministers and what he does to strengthens them. His real slogan should not be ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’, but ‘Dynasty-mukt Congress’. His idea, that the country should be run in partnership between the PM and CMs, can be a critical element in ensuring this. If he really means it, he can build direct partnerships with Congress CMs and make sure that they remain in power, especially if they take a line independent of the Gandhis.

Ending dynasty calls for strengthening the regional leaders of the Congress so that they can strike out on their own. That is the key. The rhetoric in Amethi is good as far as it goes, but it won’t end dynastic thinking in the Congress.