James R. Carroll

The Courier Journal

After two polls in his favor, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell again has slipped behind Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, according to the latest Bluegrass Poll.

Grimes, Kentucky's secretary of State, now leads the veteran five-term senator 46% to 44% among likely voters, the survey found. While that advantage is within the poll's margin of error, it represents a 6-point swing to the Democrat since the last survey in late August.

Libertarian candidate David Patterson had 3% support in the poll, while 7% of likely voters said they were undecided.

Whereas the Aug. 28 poll, showing McConnell leading by 4 points, suggested he might be slowly pulling away from Grimes, "today, McConnell suddenly and unexpectedly looks wobbly," said SurveyUSA, which conducted the poll for The Courier-Journal, Lexington Herald-Leader, WHAS-TV in Louisville and WKYT-TV in Lexington.

Kentuckians go to the polls on Nov. 4 to decide a race that has been close from the start. And opinions are solidifying: The survey found that among likely voters who had made a choice, 82% said they had made up their minds, and only 16% said they might change their minds.

Despite President Obama's dismal job approval ratings in the state (55% unfavorable to just 29% favorable among registered voters), McConnell apparently has had trouble convincing Kentuckians of one of his central arguments: that his opponent would be a rubber stamp for the administration's policies.

McConnell likewise has had difficulty making his case for a sixth term, as he also suffers from upside-down job approval numbers: 48% of registered voters viewed him unfavorably, while 35% viewed him favorably.

Kentuckians' opinions of Grimes are divided: 40% viewed her favorably, while 39% viewed her unfavorably.

But the 6-point shift to Grimes on who to vote for may not be real, cautioned University of Kentucky political scientist Stephen Voss. He said she may have strengthened a little, but not as much as the poll indicates.

"I would take these results with a grain of salt, given that they deviate from everything we've seen recently," Voss said, referring to a number of other polls showing McConnell leading Grimes.

"I don't buy the absolute totals," he said. "I think she's still behind."

But the deeper numbers in the survey do show Grimes' ads — one showing her trap-shooting and another featuring former President Bill Clinton — are helping her gain ground with conservative Democrats, Voss said.

Nationally, Republicans need a net gain of six seats to win control of the Senate. That would make McConnell the majority leader if he wins re-election.

Perhaps the most alarming number for McConnell is that 57% of registered voters surveyed said that after 30 years in office, it's time for him to be replaced. That sentiment was shared by 33% of conservatives and 27% of Republicans.

"I don't think he's that concerned" about problems facing average Kentuckians, said Alma Harbin, 86, of Hodgenville. A retired author of cookbooks, she plans to vote for Grimes.

"He's taken enough from the government," Harbin said of McConnell. "It's time to let somebody else have a turn."

Grimes is being buoyed by shifts in her direction among middle-income voters, those with some college education and Democrats in general. The survey found Grimes doing much better than in the last poll in Eastern and Western Kentucky, and she has improved her lead in the Greater Louisville area from 7% to 16%. A Democrat's strength in Louisville is critical to winning statewide office.

But just under a majority — 49% — told pollsters that Grimes "will simply vote for President Obama's agenda and Kentucky needs someone who can stand up to the president."

That is what Shelley Stutzman, 44, of Louisville, believes.

"She is too much of a follower," said Stutzman, who works for Veterans Affairs. "I think she's going to follow what Obama and the rest of the Democrats want."

Even so, she said she is not enthused about backing McConnell. "I don't have a better option," she said.

What appears to be aiding McConnell is that 47% of registered voters in the poll believe Republicans would do a better job if they were in control of the Senate. Forty-two percent sided with the Democrats.

Slightly more than a third of Kentucky's registered voters — 34% — think McConnell has done a bad job explaining his positions, while almost two-thirds — 63% — think he's has done a good or fair job.

As for Grimes, 27% of Kentucky voters think she has done a bad job explaining her positions, while 66% think she has done a good or fair job.

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 Kentucky adults between Sept. 30 and Oct. 2, including 730 registered voters and 632 who were determined to be likely voters. For results among likely voters, the poll's margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points. For registered voters, the sampling margin was plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.