This series rolls along to look at the Colorado House of Representatives. A while back we did the CO Senate, where Dems are trying to flip the majority, and are favored to do so. If that occurs, they would need to hold the governorship as well as this chamber to complete the trifecta. Entering the fall 2018 elections, Democrats hold a 36-29 advantage in the 65 person chamber, meaning that the GOP needs 5 flips to get the majority, which is a bit of a tough task. But let’s take a look anyways:

Colorado House Ratings

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R 3 (D) 34 (R) 25 (R) 38 (R) 22 (R) 17 (D) 27 (R) 47 (R) 43 (R) 29 (D) 37 (R) 50 (D)

Likely D: 3, 17, 29, 50

3rd District: Jeff Bridges

The first district on the list is located in Englewood and Littleton with incumbent Democrat Jeff Bridges, who won his first term in 2016 by a narrow 5 point margin. This is a D+4 district that supported Clinton by 17, though it was significantly closer in 2012, so it should give Bridges a boost in 2018, as will a better national environment. He’s facing Toren Mushovic, a Navy veteran who has raised a credible amount of money, though he is still in a 2-to-1 hole compared to Bridges, which makes it an uphill climb. This isn’t an easy race for Democrats but it’s one they should win, given all of these factors.

17th District: Tony Exum Sr.

Welcome to the NH-01 of Colorado State House districts. Anyone who is familiar with national House politics probably knows how Carol Shea-Porter (D) and Frank Guinta (R) have faced each other in endless rematches in New Hampshire’s 1st District which essentially mimic the national environment. The same thing happens here in HD-17. Tony Exum Sr. and Catherine “Kit” Roupe are now facing each other for the third straight time. Exum held the seat in 2014 when Roupe beat him on the back of the national environment. Then he beat her in 2016 and they meet again in 2018. However, this is a D+4 district, though it had a huge Obama → Trump swing, even if Clinton still won it in 2016, so it’s not simple politically. Still, Exum has more money and with good winds behind his back, he should be clear for another term.

29th District: Tracy Kraft-Tharp

Our next Likely D seat involves Tracy Kraft-Tharp in a third straight D+4 seat and she’s never been a super strong incumbent. Despite it being a Dem-leaning seat, she’s won by 8, 5, and 9 points since she was first elected in 2012, meaning she has yet to put the stranglehold on HD-29. Still, she is much better funded than her 2018 opponent, self-employed dude Grady Nouis, which gives her a strong leg up, hence the Likely D rating.

50th District: Open (Young)

Our first open seat is such because incumbent Dave Young is not running for re-election. This creates a race for the open D+3 seat, though Democrats are still favored to hang on. Their nominee is Rochelle Galindo, a former Democratic organizer and the first openly gay person to be elected to City of Greeley government. The Republican candidate is Michael Thuener, an army veteran. Neither candidate has a ton of money, though Galindo has more currently, and in a Clinton/Obama seat in 2018, it’s just hard to imagine the Republicans picking this one up.

Lean D: 34

34th District: Alex Winkler

Here’s our only favored pickup, and it comes in a weird way. In 2016, this D+6 seat was won by Democrat Steve Lebsock. In 2017, Lebsock had a #MeToo scandal come out and his fellow Dems asked him to resign from the chamber. Ever the egotist, Lebsock switched parties as a f*** you to Democrats for forcing him out, which ensured his successor would be a Republican. Alex Winkler was appointed to take his spot. However, Winkler of course has never run for office in this seat and he’s in a Clinton +10 district, so it’s fair to say he starts out as a significnat underdog against Northglenn City Councilman Kyle Mullica (D) in the fall.

Tossup: 25, 27, 37

25th District: Tim Leonard

First up in the Tossup column is Tim Leonard’s HD-25, located on the outskirts of the Denver area. Leonard first ran for office in 2010, losing the general election, before running for the open HD-25 in 2016 and winning by 4 points. That margin, along with the close R+3 PVI, makes it a top Democratic target in 2018. Public Relations Professional Lisa Cutter is in the race for Team Blue and she already has more money than Leonard, meaning he’s going to be in one tough fight in the fall.

27th District: Lang Sias

With an R+2 PVI, HD-27 is one of the swingiest seats in the chamber. It’s a Clinton/Romney seat found in Arvada in suburban Denver and has been represented by Lang Sias since 2015. In 2016, Sias won 54-41-6 in a three way race, so he’s in no way a sitting duck. He will be facing mining consultant Brianna Titone this fall and the two have about the same amount of money. If I had to wager, I’d make Sias a small favorite to hang on, but he is in no way secure, so tossup is appropriate.

37th District: Cole Wist

This is the best Democratic flip opportunity among the tossup seats. Cole Wist won re-election in 2016 by about 9 points but he has stiff competition in 2018 for this R+1 seat. He is facing veteran Tom Sullivan, whose son was one of the victims killed in the Aurora movie theater shooting in 2012. Sullivan has $35,000 in the bank to Wist’s $8,000 in the last reporting period, which is a huge warning sign for the incumbent, and it seems like at this point in time Sullivan is a favorite. It’s a Clinton +6 seat that is rapidly getting bluer and it’s an uphill battle for the incumbent.

Lean R: 38, 47

38th District: Susan Beckman

HD-38 was an open seat in 2016, which Beckman won by 16 points, running way ahead of Trump in this district that Clinton actually won. That makes her a pretty tough incumbent to dislodge, though Democrats have CFP Chris Kolker, a pretty solid candidate. It’s one we have to wait and see until the fall to get a great read on if Dems have a real shot to flip, so for now Lean R is appropriate.

47th District: Open (Reyher)

Here we have an open seat for an R+7 district in southern Colorado by Pueblo. Democrats have recruited teacher Bri Buentello to run for this seat, while the Republicans have quite the candidate. Team Red recruited rancher/author/Green Beret Don Bendell, who has written 26 books as part of the conservative literary movement. His wikipedia page is something to be seen, and he appeared at a Colorado rally with Trump late in the 2016 campaign, even making a joke that was… questionable. As of the latest filing period, Buentello had a hefty $36,000 in the bank, while Bendell had basically 0, which is a little odd. This is in no way an easy district for Democrats to win but it’s certainly a very strange race and one to keep your eye on.

Likely R: 22, 43

22nd District: Open (Everett)

Another open seat, HD-22 encompasses Columbine in suburban Denver and has an R+7 PVI. Incumbent Justin Everett is not running for re-election, leaving a race between lawyer Todd Kastetter and small businessman Colin Larson. Larson is currently running a better campaign, with more money in the bank, so we consider him a favorite in a Trump +8 district, but it’s not totally secure, so Likely R makes sense.

43rd District: Kevin Van Winkle

One of the best names in any state legislature, Kevin Van Winkle is the Republican incumbent for HD-43, located in the southern outskirts of Denver. It has an R+8 PVI, making it not the most obvious pickup opportunity, but it’s one that should be on the board. He won by decisive margins in his last two elections, but it was only Trump +6, so it’s a seat to look out for. Nonprofit dude Barrett Rothe is the Democratic candidate and he is at least decent, but likely R is the obvious rating here.

The Path to a Republican Majority

There’s no clear path at the moment for the Republicans. The main obstacle they face is that the seats Democrats hold all have D PVI’s, which are pretty hard to flip when the national winds are in your face. Furthermore, Republicans didn’t do themselves any favors by not even challenging a pair of decently weak Democratic incumbents in HD-59 and HD-62. In order to get a majority, Republicans would have to hold all their seats and then flip all four of the seats in Likely D, which is pretty hard to see right now.

The Bottom Line

So overall, this chamber looks like a Dem hold, and like in New Mexico, there is a higher probability that Democrats expand their majority, rather than lose it. This part of the potential trifecta is the easiest for Dems to accomplish, and so we have an overall chamber rating of Likely D.

Chamber rating: Likely D

Estimate if election were held today: D+1 to D+5