In the first segment of the debate, Hillary Clinton started out on the defensive on trade, while Donald Trump did a pretty good job of making his case against free trade deals, NAFTA and the like (unsupported by most of the facts though that case may be). Trump also was able to tie that case to an attack on Hillary as a career politician responsible for many of our problems and unable to take them on with new policies. This is an effective attack in a political environment where people think the nation is on the wrong track.

But then, in the second segment of the debate, the two candidates got into a slugfest, and it turned out Hillary is a better slugger than Donald. She went on the offensive on Trump's tax returns. Donald didn't do well in response. And Trump was basically on the defensive, or at best holding his own, the rest of the night. Time after time, Trump spent time defending aspects of his career and some of his statements instead of prosecuting the case for change.

So, after the first fifteen minutes, Trump didn't take advantage of his ability to box Clinton in as a defender of the status quo. Instead, she made her arguments. She isn't great at that--her little mini-speeches are dull and canned. But Trump never was able to get back on the offensive all night, and couldn't resist defending himself against every charge, often unconvincingly, rather than prosecuting the simple case against Hillary that she won't change anything and will keep the country on the wrong track. Clinton mostly seemed calm and collected and more than held her own for the rest of the evening.

I'm not positive Hillary actually won the debate. But I'm sure Trump lost it. He choked.