Survey also casts doubts over accuracy of official number of cases

Mumbai: There has a been a 265% rise in cases of dengue in Mumbai in the last five years. Findings of a white paper released by NGO Praja Foundation on Wednesday revealed that number of cases of the mosquito-borne disease has jumped from 4,867 in 2012-13 to 17,771 in 2016-17. The data was obtained from all public hospitals in the city.

The findings are based on a survey carried out in 20,000 households between January and March this year. The report also revealed a discrepancy in the number of dengue and malaria cases registered in government hospitals. “While dengue cases in public sector hospitals were 17,771, the total estimated number of cases as per the survey was as high as 1,09,443. The corresponding figures for malaria were 11,607 cases and 90,703,” the report said.

Srinivasan Raman of Hansa Research, who was commissioned to conduct the survey, said, “Such a huge discrepancy indicates that the BMC has a long way to go when it comes to a proper health maintenance information system. If government authorities do not have access to accurate figures about the prevalence of diseases, how can they evolve appropriate strategies to tackle them?”

Mumbai-based physician Dr. Pratit Samdani said there was a rise in dengue cases three years ago. “But now, we see a sporadic rise and fall. There has not been a sustained rise,” said Dr. Samdani, who practises in several south Mumbai hospitals.

Rise in DOTS drop-outs

According to the survey, the drop-out rate of the Directly Observed Treatment Short Course (DOTS) for tuberculosis (TB) has gone up from 9% in 2012 to 19% in Mumbai in 2016. DOTS attacks the TB bacteria, and timely treatment helps reduce drug resistance. Experts say incomplete treatment a key reasons for the spurt in multi-drug-resistant and extremely drug-resistant TB cases.

According to Milind Mhaske, project director of Praja Foundation, municipal councillors have asked only 45 questions in the committee meeting on TB in the past five years. “This as compared to the 68 questions on naming and renaming hospitals or cemeteries. The civic body seems to have adequate resources, but the priorities are not right,” Mr. Mhaske said.

Civic authorities, however, have doubted the data. According to Mumbai TB officer Dr. Daksha Shah, the current number of cases is not more than 42,000. She said, “Our treatment drop-out rate hovers around 12% to 13%, and the data we have comes from across the public and private sector. The drop-outs are always there due to migration, alcoholism and sometimes due to shifting from public to private sector. But the rate is definitely not 19%.”

Dr. Shah said the data provided by Praja foundation is inaccurate. “We put tremendous efforts in the TB programme and try to reach out to every drop-out. But it is the socioeconomic condition that pushes people to leave the course,” she said.