Projections are a reflection of a player’s expected production and they allow fantasy owners to qualitatively compare how much better “Player A” is than “Player B,” while also providing an understanding of where each player’s strengths and weaknesses are. Plus, they are conservative in nature, so even though some may underperform their projections, many will outproduce them. The key to winning in fantasy sports is by discerning which athletes will produce far above their cost, or rather, the expectations that create those costs.

Some of what experts look for when trying to identify players who possess the upside to heavily exceed those expectations are things like a helpful park factor for players on new teams, stellar advanced metrics, positive statistical trends, and the opportunity for more playing time than expected for young guys. For instance, some saw Christian Yelich’s breakout coming with Milwaukee (a hitter-friendly environment) heading into 2018 after noticing that two-thirds of his career home runs came on the road, away from the notoriously pitcher-friendly ballpark, Marlins Park. Others took note of Blake Snell’s impressive 12.5 strikeouts per nine during a seven-game midseason Triple-A stint in 2017. Doing all the research necessary to find these studs in the making isn’t easy though, so our featured pundits have arrived to lend you a hand, as they share their insight on the players who have the best chances to greatly surpass their projections.

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Q1. What one starting pitcher do you expect to far exceed their current consensus projection and why?

Joe Musgrove (SP – PIT)

“Musgrove is a pitcher I’m very high on coming into 2019. Injuries have really plagued him throughout the last couple years both in Houston and Pittsburgh. He just turned 26 years old and actually finished with the exact same 4.06 ERA he is projected for, but with just a 1.18 WHIP. Musgrove is known for his fantastic control and less for his ability to get swings and misses. Based on his performance in 2018, the ERA estimators show that Musgrove was unlucky last year. His FIP/xFIP/SIERA for last year was 3.59/3.92/3.93.

Musgrove added about 0.5 MPH on his fastball last year, but the big adjustment was his increased usage of his changeup. The changeup became an elite offering for him, as he got hitters to chase the pitch outside the zone over 50% of the time! In addition to getting batters to chase, Musgrove can also throw the pitch for strikes and generate below-average contact on pitches inside the zone. He pairs the elite changeup with his established slider. Between the two-plus pitches for Musgrove, he should be able to bump his strikeout rate to the 23-24% range. Given his 68% first-pitch strike rate, I anticipate another walk rate well-below league average, keeping his WHIP below 1.20. For 2019, I project Musgrove for 11 wins, 3.80 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 160 strikeouts in 163 innings.”

– Max Freeze (Freeze Stats)

“Joe Musgrove will be better than his projection. Musgrove has a really good slider to go with a solid changeup. He induced a swinging strike rate of 11.4 percent and could average close to a strikeout per inning. Musgrove has excellent control and should have a WHIP similar to last season’s 1.18. He can have an ERA around 3.50.”

– Adam Ronis (ScoutFantasySports)

Ross Stripling (SP – LAD)

“Stripling is currently being projected as a part-time starting pitcher for the Dodgers. While that may have been the case last year, he is a virtual lock to end up in the rotation all season, especially with Clayton Kershaw’s shoulder issues. Much like Mike Clevinger’s 120 inning sample size in 2017, Stripling’s dominant 120 innings last year should tell us all we need to know about how great he can be. He finished the year top five in xFIP and had a higher K-rate than both Corey Kluber and Noah Syndergaard.”

– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Jesus Luzardo (SP – OAK)

“I’m turning to a rookie with this one, and the only question will be how long until the A’s promote him after presumably playing the Super 2 game. Luzardo is a stud southpaw in the making, and the only blip on his impeccable resume is an outlier, not a concern. He is a dynamic control pitcher supported by power numbers, and the only time this has been disproven was in a brief stint in the inflated PCL of Triple-A. The Oakland Coliseum is tailor-made for a pitcher of his ilk, and while it may only be 125-ish innings you’ll get, they will be stellar and greatly impact your ratios for the better.”

– Andy Singleton (Razzball)

Q2. What one hitter do you expect to far exceed their current consensus projection and why?

Ketel Marte (2B/SS – ARI)

“I guess I shouldn’t be too surprised seeing Marte with such a low projection. He has hit just .260 each of the last two seasons. However, Marte is still just 25 years old and, per xStats.org, Marte significantly underperformed in terms of batting average in the last two seasons. With expected batting averages of .300 and .288, respectively, there are clearly underlying skills that should begin to surface. There’s evidence of improving power not only with a career-best 14 home runs in 2018, but also a whopping 52 extra base hits as well. He also nearly doubled his barrel rate and increased his hard contact by almost eight percent. Personally, I see a hitter who will continue to develop power and I can envision an increase in home runs to somewhere between 15-18 for 2019.

What about his speed? Marte managed just six steals last year, which is far cry from expectations given his sprint speed where he ranked in the top 15% of Major League Baseball. The 12 triples he hit last year proves he’s got great wheels; it just hasn’t translated into stolen bases. Marte’s high-contact approach combined with a walk rate of nearly 10% should earn him the leadoff spot for the rebuilding Diamondbacks. I expect a boost in batting average with solid on-base skills, which should give Marte additional opportunities to steal bags in 2019. My projections for Marte is 2019 are .281-83-17-59-10.”

– Max Freeze (Freeze Stats)

Max Kepler (OF – MIN)

“Kepler’s projection has him making no improvement, and he will hit 30 home runs. He cut his strikeout rate, improved his walk rate, and improved against left-handers. He increased his fly ball rate to 46.2 percent and had a career-best hard-hit rate. Kepler had a lot of positive trends last season, and it will be reflected in the surface stats in 2019.”

– Adam Ronis (ScoutFantasySports)

Victor Robles (OF – WSH)

“Robles stands out to me as a player the consensus projections are too conservative on. If there is a weak spot in most models, it is playing time estimates for rookies. Robles is a lock to start for the Nationals on Opening Day, which should afford him far more than 496 at-bats over the course of the season. As a result, I expect him to have a quality batting average and hit around 16 homers with 35 steals, 85 runs, and 70 RBIs. At his current ADP, Robles is an absolute steal.”

– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Byron Buxton (OF – MIN)

“I can’t believe I’m saying this, because I’ve been a staunch adversary of his over the years, but…Buxton is who I’m choosing. The pedigree and talent have always been present. He’s been one of the best Quad-A players, batting .300 at Triple-A and flopping in the majors (despite glimpses). His defensive prowess will keep him in games. But the one key I’m looking at is his adjustment to his offseason schedule, in which he started hitting in October as opposed to waiting until January as he had in the past. Let’s also not forget that he added 21 pounds of muscle. A strong start could have us finally seeing the breakout we’ve wanted, which would shatter the current projections.”

– Andy Singleton (Razzball)

Thank you to the experts for naming their standout performers. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and subscribe to our podcast below for more advice all season long.



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