As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the sixth year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2017. The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2016 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).

The Super Two cutoff will be 2.131. Service time data in this post is now official. The official MLB minimum is not yet known, but we’re using $508K.

If you see any inaccuracies or have questions, please leave a comment or contact us. I should note that we are creating subjective projections for Jose Abreu and Yasiel Puig, outside of the arbitration model, given those players’ existing MLB contracts and the related intricacies. A full post on Abreu can be found here.

Angels (5)

Danny Espinosa (5.113) – $5.3MM

Martin Maldonado (4.156) – $1.6MM

Garrett Richards (4.148) – $7.0MM

Kole Calhoun (3.130) – $6.9MM

Matt Shoemaker (2.166) – $3.8MM

Astros (7)

Nori Aoki (4.148) – $6.8MM

Marwin Gonzalez (4.133) – $3.6MM

Dallas Keuchel (4.089) – $9.5MM

Will Harris (3.102) – $2.5MM

Mike Fiers (3.085) – $4.3MM

Collin McHugh (3.085) – $4.6MM

George Springer (2.166) – $4.7MM

Jake Marisnick (2.145) – $1.1MM

Athletics (5)

Yonder Alonso (5.116) – $4.1MM

Khris Davis (3.104) – $5.0MM

Stephen Vogt (3.084) – $3.7MM

Sonny Gray (3.061) – $3.7MM

Liam Hendriks (3.038) – $1.0MM

Blue Jays (4)

Darwin Barney (5.085) – $1.6MM

Aaron Loup (4.040) – $1.2MM

Ezequiel Carrera (3.039) – $1.2MM

Marcus Stroman (2.148) – $3.5MM

Braves (7)

Josh Collmenter (5.144) – $2.2MM

Anthony Recker (4.000) – $1.0MM

Arodys Vizcaino (3.168) – $1.6MM

Paco Rodriguez (3.120) – $900K

Ian Krol (2.149) – $1.0MM

Tuffy Gosewisch (2.154) – $600K

Brewers (4)

Carlos Torres (4.114) – $2.0MM

Wily Peralta (3.160) – $4.4MM

Kirk Nieuwenhuis (3.112) – $1.6MM

Scooter Gennett (3.071) – $3.0MM

Chase Anderson (2.146) – $3.1MM

Cardinals (5)

Trevor Rosenthal (4.058) – $6.3MM

Matt Adams (4.033) – $2.8MM

Kevin Siegrist (3.116) – $1.9MM

Carlos Martinez (3.073) – $5.3MM

Michael Wacha (3.062) – $3.2MM

Cubs (4)

Pedro Strop (5.156) – $5.5MM

Jake Arrieta (5.145) – $16.8MM

Hector Rondon (4.000) – $5.7MM

Justin Grimm (3.170) – $1.8MM

Diamondbacks (6)

Patrick Corbin (4.105) – $4.2MM

Randall Delgado (4.100) – $1.9MM

Shelby Miller (3.166) – $4.9MM

Chris Owings (3.027) – $2.1MM

Chris Herrmann (3.001) – $1.0MM

Taijuan Walker (2.142) – $2.8MM

Dodgers (7)

Yasmani Grandal (4.115) – $5.3MM

Luis Avilan (3.146) – $1.5MM

Scott Van Slyke (3.151) – $1.3MM

Chris Hatcher (3.146) – $1.4MM

Alex Wood (3.123) – $2.0MM

Josh Fields (3.092) – $1.2MM

Vidal Nuno (3.015) – $1.1MM

Giants (6)

Eduardo Nunez (5.090) – $4.4MM

Conor Gillaspie (4.028) – $900K

George Kontos (3.171) – $1.7MM

Will Smith (3.155) – $2.3MM

Cory Gearrin (3.136) – $1.1MM

Ehire Adrianza (2.131) – $508K

Indians (8)

Bryan Shaw (5.081) – $4.5MM

Lonnie Chisenhall (4.158) – $4.1MM

Zach McAllister (4.077) – $1.7MM

Cody Allen (4.076) – $7.7MM

Brandon Guyer (4.066) – $2.0MM

Dan Otero (3.124) – $1.2MM

Danny Salazar (2.162) – $3.8MM

Trevor Bauer (2.158) – $3.7MM

Mariners (9)

Danny Valencia (5.118) – $5.3MM

Jarrod Dyson (5.088) – $2.5MM

Drew Smyly (4.154) – $6.9MM

Leonys Martin (4.078) – $6.3MM

Jean Segura (4.065) – $7.3MM

Evan Scribner (3.142) – $1.1MM

Nick Vincent (3.067) – $1.5MM

James Paxton (2.151) – $2.7MM

Jesus Sucre (2.137) – $600K

Marlins (6)

David Phelps (4.156) – $5.2MM

Adeiny Hechavarria (4.060) – $3.7MM

A.J. Ramos (4.030) – $6.8MM

Tom Koehler (4.016) – $6.2MM

Marcell Ozuna (3.124) – $4.5MM

Derek Dietrich (2.151) – $1.8MM

Mets (10)

Lucas Duda (5.137) – $6.725MM

Rene Rivera (5.070) – $2.2MM

Addison Reed (5.001) – $10.6MM

Matt Harvey (4.072) – $5.2MM

Jeurys Familia (4.030) – $8.7MM

Zack Wheeler (3.098) – $1.0MM

Josh Edgin (3.097) – $800K

Travis d’Arnaud (3.044) – $1.7MM

Wilmer Flores (3.003) – $1.9MM

Jacob deGrom (2.139) – $4.5MM

Nationals (5)

Jose Lobaton (5.138) – $1.6MM

Bryce Harper (4.159) – $9.3MM

Derek Norris (4.102) – $4.0MM

Anthony Rendon (3.130) – $6.4MM

Tanner Roark (3.055) – $6.1MM

Orioles (9)

Chris Tillman (5.113) – $10.6MM

Ryan Flaherty (5.000) – $1.7MM

Zach Britton (4.158) – $11.4MM

Brad Brach (4.063) – $2.9MM

Manny Machado (4.056) – $11.2MM

Jonathan Schoop (3.027) – $3.4MM

T.J. McFarland (3.006) – $700K

Kevin Gausman (2.151) – $3.9MM

Caleb Joseph (2.145) – $1.0MM

Padres (6)

Carter Capps (4.007) – $1.0MM

Wil Myers (3.104) – $4.7MM

Brad Hand (3.092) – $1.4MM

Brandon Maurer (3.089) – $1.7MM

Christian Friedrich (3.046) – $2.0MM

Yangervis Solarte (3.000) – $2.7MM

Phillies (3)

Jeanmar Gomez (5.063) – $4.6MM

Freddy Galvis (4.021) – $4.4MM

Cesar Hernandez (2.154) – $2.5MM

Pirates (7)

Tony Watson (5.101) – $5.9MM

Juan Nicasio (5.084) – $4.6MM

Jared Hughes (4.162) – $2.5MM

Jordy Mercer (4.095) – $4.0MM

Drew Hutchison (3.165) – $2.2MM

Wade LeBlanc (3.131) – $1.6MM

Gerrit Cole (3.111) – $4.2MM

Rangers (7)

Robinson Chirinos (4.103) – $2.1MM

Tanner Scheppers (4.094) – $1.1MM

Jake Diekman (4.050) – $2.6MM

A.J. Griffin (4.034) – $1.9MM

Jurickson Profar (3.124) – $1.1MM

Jeremy Jeffress (3.104) – $2.9MM

Sam Dyson (2.142) – $3.9MM

Rays (9)

Alex Cobb (5.061) – $4.0MM

Erasmo Ramirez (3.158) – $3.5MM

Brad Boxberger (3.109) – $1.5MM

Corey Dickerson (3.101) – $3.4MM

Brad Miller (3.094) – $3.8MM

Xavier Cedeno (3.060) – $1.2MM

Jake Odorizzi (3.042) – $4.6MM

Danny Farquhar (2.170) – $1.1MM

Kevin Kiermaier (2.131) – $2.1MM

Red Sox (10)

Fernando Abad (5.073) – $2.0MM

Robbie Ross Jr. (4.100) – $1.8MM

Joe Kelly (4.029) – $2.6MM

Drew Pomeranz (4.013) – $4.7MM

Tyler Thornburg (3.057) – $2.2MM

Brock Holt (3.052) – $1.7MM

Xander Bogaerts (3.042) – $5.7MM

Brandon Workman (3.018) – $600K

Jackie Bradley Jr. (2.150) – $3.3MM

Sandy Leon (2.149) – $1.3MM

Reds (4)

Zack Cozart (5.084) – $4.7MM

Blake Wood (4.131) – $2.1MM

Tony Cingrani (3.088) – $1.9MM

Billy Hamilton (3.028) – $2.3MM

Rockies (5)

Jake McGee (5.127) – $6.1MM

Tyler Chatwood (5.039) – $4.8MM

Jordan Lyles (5.021) – $3.3MM

Charlie Blackmon (4.102) – $9.0MM

Nolan Arenado (3.155) – $13.1MM

Royals (3)

Eric Hosmer (5.146) – $13.3MM

Danny Duffy (5.085) – $8.2MM

Kelvin Herrera (4.157) – $5.3MM

Tigers (6)

Andrew Romine (4.049) – $1.2MM

Jose Iglesias (4.036) – $3.2MM

Justin Wilson (4.035) – $2.7MM

Alex Wilson (3.038) – $1.2MM

Bruce Rondon (3.037) – $900K

Nick Castellanos (3.029) – $2.8MM

Twins (5)

Hector Santiago (5.016) – $8.6MM

Brandon Kintzler (5.003) – $2.2MM

Eduardo Escobar (4.128) – $2.9MM

Kyle Gibson (3.056) – $3.5MM

Ryan Pressly (3.053) – $1.1MM

White Sox (9)

Miguel Gonzalez (5.084) – $2.6MM

Todd Frazier (5.071) – $13.5MM

Brett Lawrie (5.055) – $5.1MM

Dan Jennings (3.171) – $1.2MM

Avisail Garcia (3.167) – $3.4MM

Zach Putnam (3.135) – $975K

Jake Petricka (3.044) – $900K

Yankees (7)