The Russian military is holding significant war games in its far west, not far from the border with Ukraine. The war games are adding to international tensions surrounding the Ukraine.

Many, particularly US and Ukrainian officials, have tried to spin this as Russia “massing troops” along the border with Ukraine, and painting it as proof that an invasion is imminent.

In practice the war games were probably meant more as a retaliation for NATO’s myriad wargames along the Ukraine frontier in recent days, and there is no reason to think an invasion is even being pondered.

Ultimately, Russia doesn’t need to invade Ukraine right now, because the troops they were allowed by treaty to keep in the Crimea are more than enough to secure that peninsula through a referendum on secession.