Councillor Doug Ford would win Etobicoke North in a provincial election, giving the Progressive Conservatives their first Toronto seat in years, a new poll suggests.

The Forum Research survey found Ford — older brother of Toronto Mayor Rob Ford — had 46 per cent of support in the riding compared to 39 per cent for three-term Liberal incumbent Shafiq Qaadri and 14 per cent for a New Democratic candidate.

“He’s a star candidate. It’s just the Ford name,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said Monday.

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“This is a Liberal seat and it’s in the 416,” said Bozinoff, noting it’s a rare bit of “good news” for Conservative Leader Tim Hudak in a city that hasn’t elected a Tory MPP since 1999 when Mike Harris was premier.

In the October 2011 election, Qaadri won 48 per cent of the vote, trouncing PC challenger Karm Singh by about 6,000 votes.

Using voice-activated phone calls, Forum surveyed 586 people in Etobicoke North on Saturday and Sunday and results are considered accurate to within four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Ford, a rookie councillor first elected in 2010 the same year his brother won the mayoralty in a landslide, said last week he would run if there is a provincial vote this spring.

“Call an election, (Premier) Kathleen Wynne, in May and I will run. I will guarantee it and we will defeat you,” he said on AM640’s John Oakley Show last Wednesday.

Ford’s father, Doug Ford Sr., was Tory MPP for the old riding of Etobicoke—Humber in 1995-99.

If Wynne’s minority Liberal government is unable to get the April budget passed, Ontarians could head to the polls in May or June.

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