by Cian Fahey

There is one legitimate criticism of Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers came under fire this week from Fox Sports' Colin Cowherd. Cowherd wants us to criticize Rodgers more because Pro Football Focus said that the Packers have the second-best roster in the NFL. Cowherd saw this ranking, accepted it as gospel, then went into a diatribe where he criticized Rodgers for not winning more than seven playoff games over the course of his career. The foundation of Cowherd's argument is that Rodgers has had everything he has needed to win multiple Super Bowls. His only specific criticisms of Rodgers the individual are “he holds the ball too long,” “he's not the greatest leader,” and “he can be moody and cocky.” Save for holding the ball too long, none of those criticisms can be explored in on-field analysis.

When a great quarterback is consistently great but doesn't win multiple Super Bowls, we go in search of fabricated reasons why. It can never simply be that football is a team game and the quarterback has limited control over the outcome of results; it must always be an inherent flaw in that individual's make-up if his team underachieves. Leadership, personality, and ability in the clutch are the pillows into which these analysts fall back. This was emphatically highlighted with how analysts (including Cowherd specifically) spoke about Cam Newton last year. Newton's Panthers were winning, so he suddenly became a good leader and his confidence was no longer an issue. It couldn't have been that Newton was always a leader or that his confidence was never an issue, or that the team around him (along with his own play) improved to the point that they became one of the best teams in the league. That's too outlandish a scenario.

Rodgers is really only under the microscope right now because of the season the Packers just had.

After throwing away a 16-0 lead in the 2014 NFC Championship Game thanks to a special teams blunder and defensive collapse, the Packers entered the 2015 season with high hopes. Those hopes were quickly dashed when Jordy Nelson tore his ACL during the preseason. Nelson wouldn't play a snap all year, and the Packers offense was suddenly lacking in talent. Rodgers makes every player around him better, and he does so more than any other player in the league, but no quarterback can turn an offense with incompetent receivers at every position into an effective passing game. Rodgers worked miracles to maintain a 35-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio while dragging the Packers passing game to 16th overall in DVOA. As a passer, Rodgers consistently elevated his incompetent weapons by throwing receivers open with anticipation and precision. In the pocket, he elevated his pass protection with his balance, athleticism, and awareness to constantly move into the best possible position to give his blockers leverage against their assignments.

What Rodgers couldn't do was catch the ball for his receivers.

Catching the ball has been an issue for Packers receivers over the past two seasons. Even when Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb were fully healthy in 2014, Rodgers' receivers combined for 48 failed receptions (defined here as accurate passes that fell incomplete or were intercepted because of a wide receiver's mistake), losing at least 445 yards and five touchdowns. Those numbers would have ranked 10th, 15th, and ninth in 2015. Without Nelson in 2015, Rodgers lost more receptions to his receivers than any other quarterback. He had 64 failed receptions (one more than Cam Newton and Ryan Tannehill and one of only five quarterbacks with at least 60) for at least 635 yards (only two quarterbacks lost more) and 10 touchdowns (no other quarterback lost more than seven). Rodgers was losing completions on accurate throws more than ever before, so it was no surprise that his completion rate hit a career-low 60.7 percent after not falling as far as 63.6 percent since his first season as a full-time starter, while his 6.7 yards per attempt was his lowest since the same year, when he finished with 7.5 yards per attempt.

The plays that Rodgers was losing to his receivers could have been offset by big plays, but without Nelson on the field the Packers didn't have a reliable deep threat. Rodgers had only six 40-plus-yard plays in 2015 after throwing 15 40-plus-yard plays in 2014. Nelson accounted for eight of those 40-plus-yard plays in 2014, two more than everyone on the roster had in 2015. It wasn't Rodgers' accuracy that fell off; he was still putting the ball in the right spots to every level of the field with great consistency.

This chart tracks all of Rodgers' throws from the 2015 season. Rodgers was accurate on 79.2 percent of his throws last year, according to the Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue. Twelve quarterbacks had a higher accuracy rate than Rodgers, but six of those were within 0.5 percent. While this chart offers a visual representation of exactly where Rodgers threw each of his passes, it can be difficult to discern exactly how accurate he was to each area of the field. To better highlight Rodgers' accuracy, here are two more charts that track the accuracy of Rodgers' passes from the 2015 season. Both have been created from the same data, but the first chart is broken down by Football Outsiders' ranges, and the second is broken down by Pre-Snap Reads' ranges.

Aaron Rodgers Accuracy Rate, 2015 (Football Outsiders Ranges)

Short

(Within 5 Yds of LOS) Mid

(6-15 Yds) Deep

(16-25 Yds) Bomb

(26-plus Yds) Outside Numbers Left 85.7% 41 70.5% 44 60.9% 23 31.8% 22 Outside Hashes Left 94.9% 78 84.8% 33 60.0% 5 60.0% 5 Between Hashes 95.8% 24 94.7% 19 100.0% 7 50.0% 4 Outside Hashes Right 93.1% 72 87.9% 33 100.0% 2 100.0% 2 Outside Numbers Right 87.5% 72 69.2% 52 52.6% 19 50.0% 10

Aaron Rodgers Accuracy Rate, 2015 (Pre-Snap Reads Ranges)

Less than 2 2-10 11-20 21-plus Outside Numbers Left 95.8% 24 68.9% 45 78.0% 41 38.7% 31 Outside Hashes Left 94.9% 59 85.3% 34 91.3% 23 50.0% 6 Between Hashes 94.1% 17 100.0% 15 94.1% 17 60.0% 5 Outside Hashes Right 96.6% 58 82.9% 35 93.3% 15 100.0% 2 Outside Numbers Right 88.4% 43 78.0% 59 63.6% 33 52.9% 17

Having both charts allows us to get a clearer idea of where Rodgers excelled throwing the ball and where he struggled. When you are accurate on 79.2 percent of your passes, you are going to have spikes in your accuracy to certain levels of the field. From a physical point of view, Rodgers can make every throw, and he can do so repeatedly. He can deliver precise passes downfield while moving outside the pocket or delivering under pressure from inside the pocket. If he has to force the ball into a tight window over one defender and past another, he can manipulate the trajectory of his passes to do that. Rodgers, like Andrew Luck, struggled most significantly when trying to throw deep down the left sideline. This could be a trend with right-handed quarterbacks, but one we currently haven't fully compiled the data to confirm.

Rodgers' other struggles with his accuracy stem from the one legitimate criticism you can make of his performances over the course of his career. Rodgers purposely chooses not to set his feet on short throws. He relies solely on arm strength so he can get rid of the ball more quickly. Sacrificing his mechanics for speed is a bad approach, as it causes Rodgers to misplace too many passes that should be automatic for him. This is highlighted better in Football Outsiders' ranges than in Pre-Snap Reads' ranges, but Pre-Snap Reads' ranges give us a better idea of Rodgers' accuracy on intermediate vs. deep throws.

Failure at the catch point plagued the Packers offense in 2015 and artificially depreciated Rodgers' production. Without the big plays that Nelson provided, the Packers couldn't overcome these heightened drop issues. Furthermore, Rodgers lost hidden production in drives that were killed on third and fourth downs. All told, 21 of Rodgers' 64 failed receptions in 2015 killed drives. Five quarterbacks who threw at least 223 passes had 21 or fewer failed receptions in 2015, including Andy Dalton, who had only 18 on 386 pass attempts for the whole season. Rodgers only threw 166 passes on third and fourth downs.

Those are the plays that really crippled Rodgers.

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This is a third-and-5 from the first drive of the Packers' Week 3 matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs. The above GIF only shows the pre-snap portion of the play. This allows us to assess Rodgers' acumen in diagnosing the defense's play call. Rodgers comes to the line early, giving him plenty of time to test the defense's resolve. Bob Sutton typically likes to blitz or disguise his four-man rushes creatively, so pre-snap diagnosis is vital for success against his defense. The first thing Rodgers does is motion Randall Cobb from the left slot to the right. The Chiefs defenders don't communicate at all, and the defender across from Cobb follows him across the field. This suggests that the defense is in man coverage across the board. From there, Rodgers uses a hard count to try and get the defense to show its hand. The movement is slight, but it's enough for Rodgers to figure it out. The deep safety had moved forward and infield, so Rodgers knows that he's not going to drop back towards the boundary side of the field, where Rodgers has one receiver.

After moving Eddie Lacy so he is in position to pick up any potential blitz that Sutton had disguised from the left side, Rodgers now knows that he is going to his man-beating route to the near side of the field (Rodgers' left side).

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The Chiefs are playing Cover-1, and Rodgers knows it. As soon as the ball is snapped, he is manipulating the deep safety with his eyes, holding him in the middle of the field long enough for Davante Adams to run his route at the top of the screen. Rodgers turns and releases the ball just before pressure arrives (his right tackle was beaten one-on-one) and times the throw so Adams can catch the ball almost as soon as he comes out of his break. This is the point of Adams' route when his separation is most likely at its widest. Rodgers even led his receiver towards space upfield, away from the underneath defender, but Adams couldn't make a relatively simple adjustment to catch the ball in front of his face.

This perfect play from the quarterback, a play that came with a very high degree of difficulty, resulted in a punt on the following down.

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Criticizing Rodgers for holding onto the ball is a short-sighted, surface-level criticism. Rodgers doesn't hold the ball because he enjoys holding the ball, he holds the ball because he is reading the defense correctly. Rodgers had by far and away the best rate of attempts per interceptable pass in both 2014 and 2015. The main reason he is able to avoid turnovers is because of how comfortable and aware he is holding the ball, and how consistent he is with his decision making. If Rodgers had better receivers or played in a different type of offense, the ball would come out much quicker than it does. Furthermore, criticizing him for holding the ball is ignoring the ratio of big plays to mistakes that he makes -- a ratio that falls heavily in his favor -- when he does.

In the above GIF, Rodgers faces a third-and-1 where the defense brilliantly masks its intentions. It's even possible that the Chargers defense changed this play at the very last moment, lucking into perfect timing in their feigned blitz. Because of the game situation and the all-out blitz look with which the Chargers came out, Rodgers had quick throws set up on both sides of the field. When the defense adjusted at the last second, he saw that none of his options were there anymore, but he didn't panic. He held the ball, first using a step outside to create leverage for his initial blocker, then establishing again inside before evading a penetrating defender. All the while, he remained in position to release the ball downfield.

When Rodgers did release the ball, he placed a perfect pass to Richard Rodgers. Rodgers is a very slow receiving tight end who lacks fluidity and ball skills. On this play, Aaron had to lead Richard outside to direct him away from the safety. Aaron did not lead him over the sideline, but Richard still couldn't keep his feet on the ground or get a knee down. This third-down play forced the Packers to punt, costing them 36 yards in the process.

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There isn't a quarterback in the league who is better at converting third-and-longs than Rodgers. There are few things anyone is better at than Rodgers, but this aspect of his game stands out more than most because of the degree of difficulty it typically takes from the quarterback to give his receiver a chance to make a play on the ball downfield like this. The above play was Rodgers' most unbelievable of the season, though it was far from an aberration. On a third-and-13 during the first quarter of the team's playoff game against the Arizona Cardinals, Rodgers made a throw that most quarterbacks wouldn't attempt in seven-on-seven on a Thursday. As he so often did on critical downs last year, Davante Adams failed to complete the catch.



While the throw demands your attention on that play, Rodgers' ability in the pocket should stand out just as much. The Cardinals had a perfectly executed stunt on the right side of their defensive line. They had one defender coming free off the edge and another penetrating through the middle of the pocket. Rodgers not only has the athleticism to comfortably escape from this penetration, he anticipates it while reading the coverage downfield. He moves away and up, constantly moving his blockers into better positions to protect him. This is the kind of subtle action that can be missed in criteria-based grading of individual performances. Even this example is more of an extreme one considering the general help that Rodgers gives to his offensive line.

Rushing Rodgers on dropbacks is like trying to catch Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl. Have you seen Tecmo Bowl Bo? If not, you should get on that right now. Tecmo Bowl Bo simply couldn't be caught because he moved faster than everyone else on the field. Rodgers' athleticism should be discussed more, but with Cam Newton in the league it's easy to understand why it would be overlooked. That athleticism combined with his level of awareness and pre-snap acumen is extremely rare to find.

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It's easy to find examples of Rodgers elevating his offensive line; it's something he does on 90-plus percent of his dropbacks. Rodgers' threat as a scrambler is an afterthought, but his ability to extend plays is at the forefront of most defensive coordinator's minds. Rodgers is the type of athlete and talent that should demand a contained rush, slowing down opposing defensive linemen to ease the pressure on the Packers' offensive linemen before the play even begins. Both of the above examples come from the fourth quarter of the Packers' loss to the Carolina Panthers, a quarter and game which featured a plethora of phenomenal plays from the quarterback to drag a beaten team back into contention at the very end.



Of course, those plays were forgotten for one final error that Rodgers made at the very end, a bad error, but not one that should have completely discounted the rest of the game -- especially considering that no other quarterback would have pushed the Packers to that point for him to make that mistake.

Criticizing Aaron Rodgers more doesn't make any sense. Sometimes a player truly is great and he just happens to be on a team that isn't as good as others with which it competes. Any added criticism for the franchise in Green Bay should be pointed at the general manager. Ted Thompson is the one who built this roster, and despite Pro Football Focus' declaration that it is the second most talented roster in the league, it's a team that is far too reliant on its freakishly talented quarterback to carry them. This offseason, Thompson's big addition to his collection of skill position players that have shown off limitations and inconsistency over the past two seasons was Jared Cook, a founding member of the limitations and inconsistency club.

Let's criticize Rodgers more. Let's also point out how unrealistic Shawshank Redemption was while we're at it. The Harry Potter books? Some of those were pretty childish. The Golden State Warriors lost to the Minnesota Timberwolves when they won 73 games this year, and Muhammad Ali lost a fight or two during his time.