The Premier League returns over the course of Tuesday and Wednesday with a full complement of fixtures, so, as is customary, we delve into the betting odds to see how we can make use of the bookmakers’ expertise from an FPL point of view. We’ve done the hard work, so you don’t have to, helping make your Premier League fantasy football decisions as simple as ignoring your manager and refusing to be subbed off…

Title rivals battle it out at the top of the bookies’ defensive rankings

As Manchester City and Liverpool continue to trade blows in the race for the Premier League crown, favourable home matches see them take the top 2 spots in the bookmakers’ defensive estimations for Gameweek 28. The Citizens have a 57% chance of keeping a clean sheet when they host West Ham on Wednesday, whilst the Reds are afforded a 54% chance of shutting out Watford at Anfield. Both sides have 3 clean sheets from their last 5 games in all competitions, whilst they also have the lowest xGC figures in the top flight over the last 6 gameweeks – Liverpool 3.70, City 3.80 – highlighting their resolute back lines.

Hunting in packs: clean sheet odds point to success with a Wolves defensive double-up

Last season’s Championship winners have taken the Premier League by storm, and their success has been helped by a solid rearguard. Not only have Nuno Espirito Santo’s side conceded the joint-fifth lowest number of goals (34), they also have the fourth lowest xGC over the course of the campaign (29.90).

A trip to Huddersfield on Tuesday night offers them the chance for more defensive returns, with the Terriers woefully out of form, cut adrift at the bottom of the table and having scored just once in their last 6 games. With cheap options available, doubling up on the Wolves defence could provide points and boost your budget for other areas of your squad.

Gunners targeting further joy in Gameweek 28

After shutting out BATE Borisov and Southampton at The Emirates recently, Unai Emery’s side will be hoping to make it a trio of successive clean sheets when they entertain Bournemouth on Wednesday. With the Cherries failing to score in 5 of their last 6 away games, and with influential players like Callum Wilson out injured, taking a punt on the likes of Bernd Leno and Sead Kolasinac is far from the worst thing you could do this gameweek.

Aguero set to hammer the Hammers

Sergio Aguero’s devastating home form, which includes hattricks in each of his last two outings at The Etihad, doesn’t bode well for West Ham, who are far from the tightest defensive unit in the division. No player in the league can match the 7 goals the Argentine has bagged over the past 6 gameweeks, whilst only Ashley Barnes can equal the 8 big chances that Aguero has been supplied with over the same period. A man in a rich vein of form, at home against an unconvincing back line, with a 65% chance of scoring according to the bookmakers – avoid the City star at your peril.

FPL Premium striker landscape shifts

With Harry Kane returning from injury early, and immediately getting back amongst the goals, along with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s benching at the weekend (which indicates he is surely set to start at home to Bournemouth on Wednesday evening), fantasy managers now have a big-hitting dilemma on their hands. Aubameyang is given a 57% chance of scoring against the Cherries leaky away defence, whilst Kane, who loves a London derby and is afforded a 42% chance of finding the net, will be looking forward to taking on a leggy Chelsea side. The question is, which combination of premium strikers do you opt for?

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Samba in South Wales?

Richarlison and Everton. Both player and club are woefully out of form. But having had 3 weeks to rest, could a trip to Cardiff, who conceded 5 at home to Watford last Friday, be just the tonic for the Blues’ current malaise? The Brazilian has scored 10 goals in the Premier League this term, double his total from last season, and with Cardiff conceding a league-high 27 chances through the centre over the last 6 gameweeks, a centre forward role for Richarlison could result in a tasty haul. The bookies estimate he has a 42% chance of striking on Tuesday.

Gameweek 28’s Dream Team: