Young arms will be key to 2016 chances for Reds

Whether the Reds can contend in 2016 depends completely on pitching. Yes, I am aware that by the time you read this the Reds could have the longest scoreless drought since probably the Dead Ball Era. As I type, they’ve gone 27 innings without scoring.

But pitching is still the key.

Consider: The Reds have scored about as many runs as the St. Louis Cardinals – 14 fewer in two fewer games – and the Cardinals are the best team in baseball. They’ve done it with exceptional pitching. The team ERA is 2.60. No starter has an ERA over 3.00. They can run a seemingly endless line of relievers out there all with sub-2.00 ERAs.

The Reds aren’t going to go from where they are – 20th in the MLB in ERA – to what the Cardinals are. But if they can shave a half of a run off that team 4.04 ERA, they’ve got a chance to contend next season.

That kind of improvement is a reach considering they’re running out an all-rookie rotation right now. And it’s anybody’s guess who will be starting in late September. Reds manager Bryan Price, in fact, mentioned on Friday a guy I never heard of as a September possibility.

But the Reds’ strategy in the Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake trades was to bring in lots of arms. The Reds added four pitchers, two of whom – Keury Mella and Cody Reed – are on the Reds’ top 10 prospects list. Brandon Finnegan would be as well, but he has too much time in the majors.

The trades improved their pitching depth greatly. The Reds have a lot of guys who project as replacements for Leake, i.e. third or fourth starters. The question is can someone develop into a replacement for Cueto, i.e. a true No. 1?

As it stands going into spring training, the Reds will have only two rotation spots set. Injured Homer Bailey will be one whenever he’s ready. Anthony DeSclafani has earned one of the other four spots. Beyond that? Lots of competition, no locks. Here’s my August 9 power ratings:

RH Michael Lorenzen, 23: Lorenzen has gotten roughed up in his last six starts. He’s given up 25 runs on 34 hits in 28 innings. His ERA has gone from 3.38 to 4.84. That’s about what Cueto’s ERA was his first year in the rotation. Lorenzen has the stuff. It’s learning how to use it.

Lorenzen has gotten roughed up in his last six starts. He’s given up 25 runs on 34 hits in 28 innings. His ERA has gone from 3.38 to 4.84. That’s about what Cueto’s ERA was his first year in the rotation. Lorenzen has the stuff. It’s learning how to use it. RH Robert Stephenson, 22: He has the highest ceiling of anyone in the organization. The results are there this year. He’s 4-1 with a 3.15 ERA at Triple-A, even after giving up five runs in four innings in his last start. Cueto, by the way, reached Triple-A at 22 and was in the rotation the next year.

He has the highest ceiling of anyone in the organization. The results are there this year. He’s 4-1 with a 3.15 ERA at Triple-A, even after giving up five runs in four innings in his last start. Cueto, by the way, reached Triple-A at 22 and was in the rotation the next year. RH Raisel Iglesias, 25: Iglesias’ results have been spotty. But he’s pitching for the first time since really 2013. He threw six innings of one-run ball Friday in Arizona.

Iglesias’ results have been spotty. But he’s pitching for the first time since really 2013. He threw six innings of one-run ball Friday in Arizona. LH Brandon Finnegan, 22: He was one of the three lefties the Reds got from Kansas City in the Cueto deal. He’s 0-3 with a 4.73 ERA in Triple-A and 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA in the majors this year. The Reds are stretching him out as a starter. He’ll likely be up and starting with the Reds in September. We’ll get a better read on him then.

He was one of the three lefties the Reds got from Kansas City in the Cueto deal. He’s 0-3 with a 4.73 ERA in Triple-A and 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA in the majors this year. The Reds are stretching him out as a starter. He’ll likely be up and starting with the Reds in September. We’ll get a better read on him then. RH Keyvius Sampson, 24: A month ago he wasn’t on the radar. Now, he’s in the big-league rotation. Still a long shot, but he’s going to get some starts to prove himself.

A month ago he wasn’t on the radar. Now, he’s in the big-league rotation. Still a long shot, but he’s going to get some starts to prove himself. LH Cody Reed, 22: Another player obtained in the Cueto deal. In his last three starts at Double-A, he’s gone 22 innings, allowed one run on 11 hits, walked five and struck out 25. He throws up to 98 mph. The Reds don’t often jump levels with players, but Reed seems to be a high-ceiling type.

Another player obtained in the Cueto deal. In his last three starts at Double-A, he’s gone 22 innings, allowed one run on 11 hits, walked five and struck out 25. He throws up to 98 mph. The Reds don’t often jump levels with players, but Reed seems to be a high-ceiling type. LH John Lamb, 25: The third guy obtained in the Cueto deal. He’s been outstanding at Triple-A – 9-2, 2.73 ERA.

The third guy obtained in the Cueto deal. He’s been outstanding at Triple-A – 9-2, 2.73 ERA. LH David Holmberg, 24: Holmberg has pitched well when given the chance in the majors, despite stuff that doesn’t overwhelm and so-so Triple-A numbers.

Holmberg has pitched well when given the chance in the majors, despite stuff that doesn’t overwhelm and so-so Triple-A numbers. RH John Moscot, 23: Price really likes Moscot. The injury to his left shoulder kept the Reds from getting a good look at him in the majors this year.

Price really likes Moscot. The injury to his left shoulder kept the Reds from getting a good look at him in the majors this year. LH Tony Cingrani, 26: You can’t completely write him off as a starter. But injuries and lack of a reliable breaking ball make him a better candidate for relief.

Right-hander Keury Mella, obtained in the Leake trade, and left-hander Amir Garrett are on the Reds’ top 10 list as well because of their high ceilings. But they’ve both spent most of the year at Single-A.

The quantity of arms will make for an interesting spring training. If the Reds can get some quality from all that quantity will go a long way to determining what kind of year 2016 will be.