A monster haul from captain Harry Kane (34 points), along with double-digit returns from Michail Antonio (15) and Alexis Sanchez (11), plus clean sheets from Laurent Koscielny (8), Danny Rose and Thibaut Courtois (6 each), saw the Bookies’ Advantage squad register a bumper 98 points in Gameweek 21 (with 56 being the gameweek average).

Can the bookies continue to triumph? Read on as we present the odds and analysis for Gameweek 22 …

Defensive odds

Team Best clean sheet odds Implied chance of a clean sheet Chelsea 1.7 59% Arsenal 1.75 57% Liverpool 1.91 52% West Brom 2.2 45% Man Utd 2.25 44% Southampton 2.38 42% Bournemouth 2.5 40% Middlesbrough 2.7 37% Everton 3 33% Man City 3.3 30% West Ham 3.3 30% Crystal Palace 3.7 27% Leicester 4 25% Tottenham 4.6 22% Watford 4.8 21% Sunderland 4.8 21% Stoke 5.6 18% Burnley 13 8% Hull 13 8% Swansea 14 7%

5 clean sheets in their last 7 games, coupled with a home game against basement dwellers Hull, sees Chelsea top the bookies’ defensive rankings with a 59% chance of keeping a clean sheet this weekend. With the Tigers blanking 5 times in 10 road trips so far this term, and scoring just 0.6 goals per game away from home on average, Antonio Conte’s men will be confident that they can add to the 6 clean sheets they have already accrued at Stamford Bridge this season. Marcos Alonso reminded us just why he is the pick of the Chelsea defence last time out with an explosive 21 point haul. The Spaniard takes his place in our starting XI as vice-captain.

Arsenal (57%) rank second for Gameweek 22 courtesy of 3 clean sheets in their last 4 games and an Emirates meeting with Burnley. The Clarets are the worst travelling side in the division from an attacking perspective, having blanked in 6 of their 9 matches and averaging just 0.33 goals per game on the road. Laurent Koscielny secured a 9 point return for his owners last time out and his bonus point potential sees him make our squad again this time round.

Liverpool (52%) and West Brom (45%) rank third and fourth ahead of plum home clashes against Swansea and Sunderland respectively. Jurgen Klopp’s men have recorded 3 shutouts in their last 6 outings, whilst their opponents have blanked in 3 of their last 5. Dejan Lovren is the cheapest secure route into the Liverpool defence and makes our XI. He is joined by Ben Foster, who will take strength from the fact that the Black Cats have failed to find the net in 5 of their 10 away games this season.

To fill the remainder of our defensive slots, we opt for Stoke’s budget friendly Lee Grant (£4.0m – 18%) as our backup keeper, with Sunderland’s Donald Love (£4.0m – 21%) and Swansea’s Stephen Kingsley (£4.0m – 7%) taking the second and third spots on our bench respectively.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from Burnley (8% – away to Arsenal), Hull (8% – away to Chelsea) and Swansea (7% – away to Liverpool) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Best anytime goalscorer odds Implied chance of scoring Diego Costa 1.6 63% Olivier Giroud 1.75 57% Alexis Sanchez 1.76 57% Daniel Sturridge 1.8 56% Divock Origi 2 50% Zlatan Ibrahimovic 2.05 49% Eden Hazard 2.05 49% Sergio Aguero 2.2 45% Roberto Firmino 2.23 45% Salomon Rondon 2.3 43% Romelu Lukaku 2.38 42% Philippe Coutinho 2.38 42% Pedro 2.55 39% Callum Wilson 2.6 38% Harry Kane 2.7 37% Adam Lallana 2.8 36% Christian Benteke 2.9 34% Willian 2.95 34% Alvaro Negredo 3 33% Nacer Chadli 3 33% Mesut Ozil 3.3 30% Jermain Defoe 3.45 29% Nathan Redmond 3.55 28% Dusan Tadic 3.55 28% Andy Carroll 3.6 28% Henrikh Mkhitaryan 3.6 28% Nolito 3.75 27% Troy Deeney 3.75 27% Alex Iwobi 3.75 27% Kevin de Bruyne 3.75 27% Junior Stanislas 3.75 27% James Milner 3.75 27% Paul Pogba 3.8 26% Cesc Fabregas 3.9 26% Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 4 25% Cristhian Stuani 4 25% Kevin Mirallas 4 25% Matt Phillips 4 25% Son Heung-Min 4.1 24% Jamie Vardy 4.1 24% Yaya Toure 4.2 24% Raheem Sterling 4.2 24% Dele Alli 4.25 24% Michail Antonio 4.5 22% Gaston Ramirez 4.5 22% Peter Crouch 4.7 21% Ross Barkley 4.8 21% Victor Anichebe 5 20% Christian Eriksen 5.1 20% Ahmed Musa 5.1 20% Emre Can 5.1 20% Marko Arnautovic 5.3 19% Manuel Lanzini 5.5 18% Bojan 5.5 18% Yohan Cabaye 5.5 18% Shinji Okazaki 5.5 18% Gerard Deulofeu 5.5 18% Andros Townsend 5.6 18% Adama Traore 5.8 17% Gylfi Sigurdsson 6 17% Fernando Llorente 6 17% Sam Vokes 7 14% Robert Snodgrass 7.5 13% Etienne Capoue 7.5 13% Ryan Mason 15 7%

With the top 4 strikers in the rankings, Diego Costa (63% – club row/injury), Olivier Giroud (57% – injury), Daniel Sturridge (56% – not nailed on) and Divock Origi (50% – not nailed on), all facing uncertainties over their starting positions, it is the reliable Zlatan Ibrahimovic (49%) who straps on our captain’s armband when he travels to Stoke on Saturday. United’s mercurial Swede has 10 goals and 4 assists in his last 10 matches, and with the Potters conceding over 2 goals per game recently (11 conceded in 5), Zlatan could be on the scoresheet once again.

Joining Ibrahimovic in our front 3 this weekend are Salomon Rondon (43%) and Romelu Lukaku (42%). Rondon has netted 7 goals thus far in the Premier League for the Baggies, 5 of which have come at The Hawthorns. With opponents Sunderland yet to keep a clean sheet on their travels, and conceding an average of 2 goals per game away from home, the big Venezuelan will be looking to improve his tally come Saturday. Lukaku, meanwhile, continued his good recent form by scoring against Manchester City last time out, meaning he has now hit 3 goals, and also registered an assist, in his last 4 appearances. He faces a Crystal Palace side who have mustered a solitary clean sheet at home in 10 attempts.

Aside from the aforementioned big four, the bookies also fancy the chances of Sergio Aguero (45%), but the Argentine is too expensive to command a place in our Gameweek 22 squad.

In midfield, Alexis Sanchez (56%) is the first selection in a heavy-hitting midfield brimming with potential. The Chilean is the joint top scorer in the league with 14 goals and has notched in both of his last 2 outings. With a home encounter against Burnley, who are conceding 2.2 goals per game away from home on average, further returns could be on the cards.

A Liverpool Brazilian double-up sees Roberto Firmino (45%) and Philippe Coutinho (42%) join Alexis in our starting XI. The pair have bagged 6 and 5 goals respectively in the league this season and are expected to line up together against Swansea in Saturday’s lunchtime kick off. With the Swans conceding 16 in their last 6 games away from home, and with the worst overall defence in the division (49 conceded in 21 games), the potential for big points from Jurgen Klopp’s attacking assets is clear.

Pedro (39%) completes our starting lineup ahead of his home game against Hull. The energetic Spaniard has registered 2 goals and an assist in his last 3 starts, and looks a solid option for this weekend with the Tigers in possession of the worst away defence in the top flight, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game. As is customary, Etienne Capoue’s security of starts and occasional attacking returns see him take the first spot on our substitutes bench.

The bookmakers also rate Eden Hazard (49%), but we overlook the Belgian wizard as he is too heavy on the budget.

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