The House Freedom Caucus is fractured as the bloc of archconservatives confronts a make-or-break decision after the election: whether or not to try and oust the second speaker in barely over a year, Paul Ryan.

Some members of the group are flirting with mutiny in private conversations with one another. Others are considering quitting the group if the caucus takes such an extreme measure. A third cluster wants to use its leverage over the upcoming vote for speaker to secure rules changes that would empower conservatives.


But no one seems to have the slightest clue as to what they’ll actually end up doing.

The discord adds a layer of uncertainty surrounding Ryan’s future. Republicans will return to Capitol Hill in mid-November most likely with a significantly slimmed-down majority. Multiple caucus members itching to push Ryan further to the right have anonymously floated the possibility of running someone against him — if not to boot him, then to extract concessions from him.

But while the caucus could conceivably round up the handful of votes it would take to deny Ryan another term as speaker, the group does not yet have a viable alternative who could get to 218 votes. Indeed, it’s still unclear whether the Freedom Caucus will even go after Ryan, in part because several of its members like him — and some believe doing so is counterproductive to their mission.

“In general, as conservative as I am, I have consistently been supportive of our leadership because I know from the inside the equation they’re dealing with: It creates an appearance that they aren’t trying hard when that isn’t the case,” said Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.), a caucus member who backs Ryan. “New leadership will only be doomed to the same scenario. There is no one in the world that can change that.”

Caucus co-founder Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) told a local radio station last week that chatter about removing Ryan was “picking up steam” because of the speaker's decision to distance himself from Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. His constituents, Meadows noted, felt Ryan had been disloyal to the party. “There will be real discussions after Nov. 8 on who our leadership will be and what that will look like going forward,” Meadows said.

Meadows, however, quickly walked back those comments, saying he was expressing only what his constituents are feeling and not suggesting that a movement is afoot to remove Ryan. On Wednesday, he tweeted congratulations to Ryan for helping pressure the Defense Department to stop trying to take back bonuses mistakenly given to some veterans.

Despite the recent flurry of speculation, there is no organized effort within the Freedom Caucus at the moment to take out Ryan, though several members privately concede they would like to. The group has not met in person or by phone to coordinate strategy for the lame duck session since Congress went on recess in late September. Members did recently discuss convening in Washington before Election Day, but no meeting was scheduled.

Several Freedom Caucus members in recent months have expressed frustration that while the group has perfected the art of blocking GOP legislation they find too accommodating to the left, they haven’t secured enough legislative victories.

They want Ryan’s help, specifically by changing House rules. One idea would require legislation or amendments with a certain number of co-sponsors to automatically get a floor vote.

Several senior Republicans doubt Ryan would agree to such a request. GOP leaders, sources note, have a duty to protect members from tough votes that can come back to hurt them in elections, one of the main reasons they hold back.

Caucus members have to decide how far they’re willing go if Ryan and his leadership team don’t give in. Many in the group see leadership elections as a prime opportunity to exert their leverage.

Weeks before conservative commentator Sean Hannity encouraged the group to oust Ryan for parting ways with Trump, the caucus was weighing a request to postpone leadership elections until after the lame duck session. A delay would buy its members time to make their case to leadership and their colleagues in exchange for their support. (Ryan’s office hasn’t shown a willingness to delay the speaker election, which is expected to take place the week after the election.)

Some caucus members want to go further and withhold votes from Ryan unless he gives in on the rules changes. And heavy Republican losses in November would probably mean more sway if they tried.

If Democrats pick up 15 GOP-held seats, Ryan could afford to lose only 13 members and still retain his gavel. That’s a small margin for error: A year ago, when almost the entire caucus was euphoric about Ryan taking over, he still lost nine votes, most of them Freedom Caucus members. Now his honeymoon is over.

Allies of Ryan's say he’d walk away before engaging in a protracted battle with his own conference to keep his post. Unlike former Speaker John Boehner, who long aspired to the job, Ryan only reluctantly decided to take it.

Some caucus members are skeptical that they should go this route anyway, because they don't have a candidate to replace him.

“If you want to kill the king, fine, but you have to have someone in the wings to replace the king,” said one Freedom Caucus source, who added: “I don’t think Ryan is terribly secure, either. ... [But] we can’t just say, ‘Paul Ryan’s got to go.’”

The caucus could lose members if it decides to go after Ryan. Already, multiple House Republican sources told POLITICO they expect several members not to rejoin next year.

Ryan’s spokeswoman, AshLee Strong, said in a statement that “Speaker Ryan has worked hard to have an open and good relationship with the House Freedom Caucus, and he looks forward to working with them in the future.”

Indeed, Freedom Caucus members generally applaud Ryan for being more responsive to them than Boehner was. Ryan meets with their leaders weekly and hears them out, to the chagrin of some other top Republicans.

Ryan has also helped some caucus members politically. In early October, he raised $100,000 at a New York fundraiser for vulnerable Rep. Scott Garrett of New Jersey. The speaker has also maxed out contributions to Rep. Rod Blum of Iowa and donated to Reps. Mick Mulvaney and Mark Sanford of South Carolina, Alex Mooney of West Virginia, Barry Loudermilk of Georgia and Warren Davidson of Ohio.

“Speaker Ryan’s leadership has been a breath of fresh air,” Blum, who’s in a tough reelection fight, said in a statement. “He is always willing to listen and operates the House in an open way that gives each member a voice.”