The stampede by food companies to join the “cage-free” egg movement signals big change in the egg industry, but that change may go deeper than many producers and consumers expect.

The recent announcement by Tim Hortons that it will stop using eggs from caged hens by 2025 has received widespread media attention and is being welcomed by animal advocacy groups. A long list of major food companies have now committed to going cage-free, including McDonald’s, Starbucks, Denny’s, Taco Bell, General Mills and Nestle.

Like Tim Hortons, most of these companies have set long timelines to achieve the changeover. Given the complex logistics and substantial investments needed to convert North American egg production to free-run or free-range, the industry maintains it must have time to phase in the change. One thing is clear: If the food retailers honour their public commitments, the egg industry will never be the same.

One lonely holdout against the cage-free movement is Canadian fast-food chain A&W Restaurants. A&W has instead decided to put its money on eggs from hens housed in “enriched cages.” These are slightly bigger than the notoriously inhumane “battery” cages that have long attracted widespread condemnation. Animal welfare groups maintain enriched cages still prevent hens from engaging in key natural behaviours and have pressured A&W to reconsider its isolationist strategy. They argue that, to hens, a cage is a cage. (It’s worth noting that the B.C. SPCA does not certify eggs from enriched cages in its humane certification program.) Moreover, they say that is how consumers will see it and that A&W will find it impossible to convince them otherwise.

While the cage-free movement goes forward at full speed (contrarians like A&W aside), a less-publicized undercurrent of change may have equally significant impacts on egg production and the food industry generally — the rise of the egg substitute.

U.S. start-up Hampton Creek Foods has received massive publicity for its plant-based Beyond Eggs products, which are used in Just Mayo, the company’s popular mayonnaise alternative, and as ingredients in other foods. While Hampton Creek hasn’t yet produced a rival to the fried breakfast egg, the company points out that one-third of all eggs are used in mass-produced baked goods, dressings, sauces and other processed foods. That is where eggs can easily be substituted without changing the taste or texture of the product.

And Hampton Creek is not alone. For example, another California start-up, Clara Foods, is focusing on replacing egg whites as a food ingredient, a $3-billion market in the U.S., with a plant-based alternative.

While these new companies aim to produce more sustainable and ethical products, older, bigger firms have a more traditional motive: profit. Major food ingredient companies have been producing egg substitutes, mainly based on whey protein or soy, for the baked goods industry and others.

They were given a boost by the worst avian flu outbreak in U.S. history in 2015, which sharply curtailed the U.S. egg supply, especially to the baking industry. Bakers turned to substitutes and the ingredient suppliers responded to fill the gap. But the cheaper alternative may have had lasting appeal. As one spokesperson for a food ingredients company told a baking industry journal: “Effective egg replacers have the potential to be a permanent change in bakery formulations.” Another said, “There’s been a lot of informal talk about this and the consensus is that the egg replacement trend may have legs.”

It’s impossible to predict what the egg industry might look like in 10 years’ time, but the current trend toward cage-free production and the emergence of viable egg substitutes could mean fewer eggs being consumed, and those that are will come from a less inhumane production system.