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Reportedly Trudeau as much as had a deal in June at the G7 meeting after Trump is said to have agreed to concessions, but the prime minister threw it all away by grandstanding against Trump in order to score political points. Trudeau’s grandstanding paid off initially — Canadians cheered him and the Liberals for standing up to Trump — but those cheers will turn to jeers once Canadians realize the Canadian economy could tank if we lose our auto industry in the bargain.

Refusing to capitulate now, and dragging out the negotiations over the next year in the hope that Congress will block the bilateral U.S.-Mexico trade deal, would be riskier still. For one thing, Trump has been successful in getting legislation passed — as Senate leader Mitch McConnell boasts, the current Congress has been unusually productive. It would be foolhardy for Trudeau to bet the farm against Trump’s ability to pass a bilateral trade deal with Mexico that also has overwhelming support in the new Mexican government.

An electoral pause in the NAFTA negotiations is his best hope for retaining power

For another, Canada’s opposition parties, not wanting to appear treasonous, are now allied with the Liberals against Trump. But that alliance won’t hold over the next year — it has already begun to crumble — meaning that Trudeau will be in the impossible position of simultaneously taking fire from our opposition parties and from a Trump who knows that he’s in the driver’s seat. Worse, because Trump views Trudeau as having stabbed him in the back after the G7 meeting, Trump may decide to blow up the negotiations just before our federal elections in order to throw the election to the Conservatives. Trudeau can’t afford to put himself and his party in a position of utter dependence on Trump’s generosity and goodwill.