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Last week, B.C.’s provincial government announced an 11th hour series of provincial restrictions seemingly aimed at blocking construction of a federally approved $7.4-billion expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline.

The move has sparked outrage from Alberta’s NDP government, and spurred promises of a blockade on imports of B.C. wine.

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In these tense times, a common Alberta fantasy is to simply do like Vladimir Putin and shut down the Trans Mountain pipeline, denying a key source of gasoline to an ungrateful B.C.

Below, a look at the economics of doing such a thing.

Vancouver gas prices would indeed spike

Dan McTeague, a senior analyst with GasBuddy.com, thinks a sudden shutdown of the Trans Mountain pipeline could cause Vancouver gas prices to spike above $2 per litre. He pointed to the recent spike in Vancouver gas prices brought about by routine maintenance at Metro Vancouver’s only refinery in Burnaby. If scheduled maintenance can cause noticeable price spikes, “a permanent shut off would cause absolute chaos,” he wrote in an email. However, other analysts aren’t quite as apocalyptic as McTeague. “The logistical system for petroleum products is highly robust,” said Michael Ervin with Kent Group petroleum consultants. A classic example is Hurricane Katrina. Despite a major region of U.S. oil production being shut down with little warning, North Americans were never subjected to particularly devastating price spikes. Although closing the pipeline would cut off 300 gas stations’ worth of fuel to B.C., Ervin forecasts a temporary price spike no higher than 20 cents.