Polls have closed in French regional elections with the far-right Front National predicted to make gains in the wake of last month’s Paris terrorist attacks.



The first-round regional vote came three weeks after gunmen opened fire at a number of Paris bars and the Bataclan concert hall while suicide bombers struck outside the national stadium in coordinated attacks that killed 130 people and were claimed by Islamic State.

It was the first time an election in France had been held under a state of emergency. Security was stepped up at polling stations, with armed police and soldiers patrolling in the capital and security guards checking voters’ bags.

Under its leader, Marine Le Pen, the Front National had already been predicted to make gains in the regional elections long before the November attacks, but since then polls have shown a boost for her party and a resolve among far-right sympathisers to turn out to vote.

The Front National could top the poll nationwide and come first in as many as six out 13 regions in Sunday’s first round – this would be a historic moment for the party, which has never before held the leadership of a French region.

The final result will be decided in a second round of voting on 13 December. Polls show that the Front National could ultimately take control of at least two large regions. Even winning one region would be seen as a major victory for the party that has never before held these constituencies. The party has been building a grassroots presence across France in order to move from a simple protest vote to a party with a serious strategy to take power across France. Le Pen hopes these regional elections will boost her chances in the presidential race of 2017.

The Front National is expecting its largest vote in the northern region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie, the poorest region in mainland France, with a population of 6 million. The area, hit by the closure of heavy industry, has traditionally been a bastion of the left, with above-average unemployment and poverty rates.

Le Pen, who has gradually built up a local powerbase there, is expected to top the poll and take control of the region. Her campaigning in recent days has focused on security and her warnings of the dangers of immigration in the wake of the Paris attacks. She has also concentrated on local concerns over the issue of refugees and migrants in Calais. Le Pen is hoping to use the region as a northern laboratory and springboard for her presidential campaign in 2017.

Her niece, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, a rising star within the party, is also predicted to win control of the Socialist-run southern region of Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, which includes some of the richest areas in France.

The party is also expected to record high scores on Sunday in the east of France, from Alsace to Burgundy, as well as parts of the centre and south.

Even though the French president, François Hollande, has seen his popularity rise since the attacks, this has not translated into a poll boost for his Socialist party and its candidates. The Socialists currently control most regions, but they are expected to lose the majority of them.

Before the attacks, Nicolas Sarkozy was hoping for a landslide victory for his rightwing Les Républicains party that would boost his personal quest to win back the French presidency in 2017. But the Front National’s growing popularity could hinder candidates on the traditional right.

In recent days, the election campaign has focused on a drive by all parties – and pleas from artists, newspapers and business figures – to limit the rise of the Front National.

The key question is how far the Socialist party is prepared to go to keep the Front National out of power. The Socialists are predicted to come third behind the far right and the right in regions where the far right could go on to win. The key question will be whether the Socialists could consider pulling out of those races or teaming up with long-term political enemies on the mainstream right just to try to stop the Front National winning. It is a risky strategy that has so far divided Socialists.



