Analysis: how the dramatic shift in British politics is clear in this election

The Guardian’s editor-in-chief takes a look at what the candidate lists can tell us about this election and the way Britain’s political dynamics have changed.

This election is set to be fought between the centre and the right, according to Guardian analysis of the candidate lists.

The August 2019 general election got underway today and promises to be closely fought. And, like any election, it comes with many of the traditions of British democracy: manifestoes being harshly scrutinised; leaders trotting up and down the country to spread their message, and talk down the messages of other parties; and the relatively new tradition of the electoral commission publishing the list of every candidate running this election. The Guardian is aiming to produce a comprehensive profile of every candidate seeking a vote in this election, but, even without that, the candidate list illustrated a dramatic dynamic shift that has been tangible at Westminster since the Greens withdrew from the Traffic Light Coalition (Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green, and, in the most recent case, Plaid Cymru) earlier this term.

First, a bit of history. The rise of the Radical Socialist redefined the underlying currents of British politics, taking the far-left mainstream and conquering the left in the process. When the RSP dramatically collapsed – taking the left in general with it and opening the way to Conservative dominance – this created a new power dynamic in British politics. Britain’s elections began to become fought between two clearly-defined ideological electoral blocs: the left and the right who largely endorsed each other in elections and worked together in opposition. This dynamic was repeatedly threatened, first by Green withdrawal from a TLC opposition in the winter of 2017, and then the formation of a grand coalition government of the Conservatives and Labour, which damaged alliances and led to the creation of the Liberal Alliance opposition coalition.

Even then, the dynamic withheld. Labour’s withdrawal from that government prior to the next election allowed them to heal relations with the Green party who they formed an official opposition with. Relations with the Liberal Democrats also healed, and there were endorsement deals in that election. But this reflected one of the central features of this dynamic: that more centre parties (the Liberal Democrats on the left and the Classical Liberals on the right) never felt particularly comfortable part of their ideological bloc.

They were stationed much closer to the centre of British politics, but you would be hard pressed to argue that there was a clearly defined centre bloc. The Liberal Democrats and Classical Liberals cooperated closely with one another, yes, but the Liberal Democrats also worked closely with the left, and the same for the Classical Liberals on the right. The proof that a centre bloc never really existed was in the way that, following the demise of the Liberal Alliance, the Liberal Democrats went back to the left, leading a TLC opposition, and the Classical Liberals who joined a right wing Brexit Coalition. The temporary formation of a makeshift centre was facilitated by a Liberal Democrat leader and prime minister (TheNoHeart) from his party’s right, and a Classical Liberal leader and deputy prime minister (CDocwra) from his party’s left.

But, my contention is that, that changed this term for a number of reasons. Firstly, the Green party eventually left the Traffic Light Coalition amid a great deal of acrimony following the formation of splinter far-left grouping the People’s Movement, led by former Prime Minister ContrabannedtheMC, to whom the Greens promised his Oxfordshire and Berkshire seat in a by-election – a promise that went down exceptionally badly with the Liberal Democrats. They threatened to withdraw from the coalition, but it was finally the Greens who pulled the plug, leaving the coalition with bitter recriminations against Labour on Twitter. This all but shattered relations on the left in a way that even the Grand Coalition did not.

Secondly, the party was already in the midst of a polling decline before its exodus from the opposition, and was now losing some of its biggest names and most moderate members. In an attempt to resurrect their fortunes, they conducted a merger with the People’s Movement with a new internal faction structure, rebranding to Green-Left. This did not last long. Soon the People’s Movement splintered off once again, but what that whole episode showed was that the Greens had turned away from traditional centre-left allies to find its salvation in the far-left – as demonstrated by its manifesto.

Thirdly, the Social Democratic party formed. First they were the Independent Social Democrats, and most doubted that they would last as a significant national force. And then they won more votes than the Liberal Democrats in the Holyrood elections and rebranded as the SDP. Seeing Labour as having moved too far left, the SDP set itself up as a progressive alternative for centre-left voters bored of a political dichotomy.

Fourthly, Labour rocketed in the polls to top 20% of the vote for the first time since before their departure from the Grand Coalition in 2018. At the same time, the SDP and Classical Liberals rose, while the Greens and the Liberal Democrats fell. For the first time in a long time it is actually starting to look feasible that there could be a Labour prime minister in Downing Street in the form of Secretary_Salami. But, in modern Britain’s electoral system you must be able to form a coalition in order to secure a majority in the House of Commons. The dynamics were clear for Labour: if they want the keys to No 10 they cannot rely on the traditional left alone – neither the Green party, with whom relations had soured and who had secluded themselves on the far-left nor the declining and crisis-stricken Liberal Democrats. Ideologically, Labour had more of an affinity with them, but strategically it made no sense.

And that brings us up to now and the candidate list for this election which confirms what that trend means in electoral term. There is no longer simply a left and right bloc. The centre bloc – termed because it is now a cohesive group that sits in the centre between the left bloc, which is now the far-left, and the right bloc, rather than describing Labour as a centrist party – is now a fully fledged alliance of its own, consisting of Labour, the SDP, the Liberal Democrats and the Classical Liberals. Where’s the proof? Notice Labour’s endorsements. Not a single endorsement of, or from, the Greens or any of the other new far-left parties. The same is true of the SDP while the Liberal Democrats have a couple of endorsement deals with the People’s Movement. It’s less true of the Classical Liberals on the right, but, whereas in previous elections they have heavily endorsed the Conservatives and LPUK, this time there are far more centre-left endorsements.

Yet, Labour’s very left wing manifesto and the reaction of their fellow centre parties to what has been regarded as a strategic misstep – by producing policies far from what their new, closer-to-the-centre allies could accepted – shows that while it was previously the centre parties who felt uncomfortable in the bloc that the voters forced them to work with, now it is Labour. The party wants to be more left wing, but is forced by circumstance to work with the middle and they have had a very hard time squaring that with where the party currently is ideologically. And although it has moved a little bit to the right compared to February, the manifesto remains very left wing in some places, and occasionally more left wing, and has become more centrist in others. Thus, their manifesto reads as an incoherent, uneven vision with no clear, consistent narrative or sense of identity. The party wants to be back on the left, but, unlike the Greens, they want to form a government and cannot retreat to their ideological comfort zone. Previous Labour manifestos could be left wing because the party didn’t need to worry about forming a majority coalition, but doing the same this time was an error and shows us that even those at the heart of the formation of this new political dynamic have not fully comprehended what this means.

Yet, despite that, the centre retains some of the ad-hoc, ramshackled nature that it has always contained. Right wing endorsements are crisp, clean and near universal, with the Tories and LPUK endorsing each other strongly, with occasional endorsements of the Classical Liberals, and one of the Liberal Democrats. The centre meanwhile is a bit of a mess. Besides the Classical Liberals returning the favour with Conservative and LPUK endorsements, while the right has a clean set of endorsements, with just two parties trading endorsements and back and forth across most seats, this is far from true of the centre.

Centre endorsements are a complete smorgasboard. In some seats, two have endorsed each other, while the other have their own endorsement deal. In others, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and SDP have endorsed each other while the Classical Liberals have endorsed the LPUK. And in many seats, the Liberal Democrats haven’t endorsed anyone, nor are the running a candidate. As mentioned, they’ve also endorsed The People’s Movement in a small number of seats – a very minor bridge between the left and centre which are, on the whole, divorced from each other. What this says, like Labour’s manifesto, is that these centre parties have not yet realised that they are now one of the main blocs of British politics. They are no longer divided between left and right. It’s a bit of a strategic coup for the right, and demonstrates how rapidly, and stealthily, this dynamic shift has come about.

This, I would wager, will be the central story of this election campaign, and will be vital in forming a government in the new Parliament. Relationships, dramatic polling changes, and big developments have given the centre more power than ever before. Parties like the People’s Movement, the Democratic Reformists, and the Phoenix Committee are desperately looking to re-energise the left after the near total collapse of the Greens, and many have endorsed each other, and the Greens, forming the new left bloc – what is essentially now the far-left, since the centre-left is now allied with the centre. Ultimately, though, they have no hope of government and are likely too far leftwards for many Labour voters who may be uncomfortable with who their party is now working with. Despite their best efforts, this election is not left v right – as much as Labour might prefer it – but it is instead now centre v right and it makes it one of the most interesting elections in a long time.

The Guardian will continue to cover this story and other stories of the election as they unfold. The Guardian will continue it’s manifesto summaries and analysis soon, with many currently being written. The Guardian is your best source for keeping up with the nuances, twists, turns, and features of this election campaign and what it will mean for the country, with our analysis pieces, op-eds, coverage of the big events, our Agenda Summer 2019 series looking at the big issues of the election, and exclusive interviews. Stick with the Guardian for the next week, and beyond, for your front row seat to history!