Inside U.S. District Judge Jed S. Rakoff's courtroom in lower Manhattan during the two weeks leading up to Opening Day, a jury may determine whether the Wilpon family retains ownership of the New York Mets.

Trustee Irving Picard -- the man charged with recovering funds to distribute to victims of swindler Bernard Madoff's Ponzi scheme -- originally sued principal owner Fred Wilpon, his son, Jeff, the team's chief operating officer, and the family's businesses and charities for $1 billion. Rakoff has reduced the potentially liability to $386 million -- and set the bar high for recovering more than $83 million.

Yet juries are unpredictable, and a big verdict could be a knockout blow to the Wilpons.

In reality, the Wilpons' ultimate financial responsibility in Picard's lawsuit is the least precise of several obligations the family must navigate in the upcoming few years in order to maintain ownership of the Mets.

Cash-flow woes prompted the Mets to seek a $40 million bridge loan from Bank of America and a $25 million emergency loan from Major League Baseball in recent months. So the upcoming obligations appear daunting.

In the interim, the Mets have slashed their payroll by roughly $52 million compared with last season, trying to close what general manager Sandy Alderson identified as a $70 million loss in 2011.

"Normally they're in the steaks sections, and I found them in the fruits and nuts category a lot," agent Scott Boras said at last month's winter meetings, referring to the Mets and their financially challenged West Coast brethren, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Howard Megdal, author of "Wilpon's Folly," who analyzed financial records and other documents in order to chronicle the Madoff-related civil suit facing the Wilpons, cites these other upcoming -- and sometimes recurring -- financial obligations:

• $50 million annual interest payments on the nearly $700 million in bonds used to finance Citi Field construction.

• A combined $50 million in annual interest payments on hefty loans against the team and regional sports network SportsNet New York, of which the Wilpons own 65 percent.

• A $430 million loan against the team that comes due June 2, 2014.

• A $450 million loan against SNY that comes due June 4, 2015.

Even the new $20 million minority ownership blocks -- which team officials maintain will close within weeks and which are designed to infuse cash to pay off the immediate obligations -- can be viewed as loans rather than equity invested in the team. That is because the Wilpons are offering prospective minority partners the opportunity to cash out in six years and be paid 3 percent annual interest.

To add insult to injury, the Mets owe former players handsome sums because of deferred salaries from their playing days.

The Mets once were comfortable pushing salary obligations for their players into the future because the Wilpons were, Picard alleges, getting 18 percent average annual returns on money they invested with Madoff regardless of drastic market fluctuations. So why would it matter if they deferred a player's salary at 8 percent annual interest? They could pocket the sizable difference between the interest owed to the player and what Madoff could make for them.

The most glaring example: Bobby Bonilla, who has not played for the Mets since 1999, went back on the payroll last July. He is owed $1,193,248 annually for 25 years.

Bobby Bonilla, who hasn't played for the Mets since 1999, is owed $1,193,248 annually for 25 years. Bill Hickey/Getty Images

Carlos Beltran -- who was traded to the San Francisco Giants weeks after Bonilla returned to the payroll, during the final season of a seven-year, $119 million contract -- is among the other ex-Mets who had money deferred with interest, according to a source familiar with that contract.

The organization maintains that the $25 million emergency loan from Major League Baseball and $40 million bridge loan from Bank of America will be paid off within weeks, after minority investors close on the purchases of 4 percent shares of the team for $20 million apiece. The existence of the MLB loan originally was not disclosed to the players' association and other teams, but the union eventually learned of it, according to a source with a major league club who requested anonymity.

Team officials declined formal interview requests from ESPNNewYork.com. But one Mets executive, while not acknowledging the precise obligations, predicted the $430 million and $450 million loans -- the latter technically against SNY, not the Mets -- would be refinanced either through the same or other lenders when they are due in two to three years.

But given the need to borrow a combined $65 million from MLB and Bank of America just to limp into 2012, cash flow obviously is an issue, and any of the smaller payments in the interim could trip up the Wilpons, especially if revenue continues to evaporate. Standard & Poor's analyst Jodi Hecht projected a 10 percent decline in stadium revenue during the upcoming season, as compared with the dismal 2011 figures.

Fred Wilpon acknowledged at this month's quarterly owners meetings in Paradise Valley, Ariz., that attendance revenue is a critical cog in being able to keep up with the team's debt obligations.

"This is a tough time," Wilpon told reporters. "We're bearing up, I can promise you that."

The wild card is what the jury decides in the lawsuit brought by the Madoff trustee.

Picard originally sued the Wilpon family, its businesses and charities for $1 billion. That figure included $300 million in profit the Wilpons allegedly withdrew in the six years before Madoff was arrested in December 2008. Picard wanted the Wilpons to forfeit $700 million in principal from that six-year period, claiming the family buried its head in the sand amid warning signs a fraud might be occurring.

After the Wilpons' attorneys successfully had the case moved from bankruptcy court -- which was considered Picard's turf -- to the more friendly U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, Rakoff ruled Picard may only seek money from the immediate two years before Madoff was arrested rather than six years, relying on the federal statute being four years shorter than New York state law.

Rakoff's decision reduced the Wilpons' potential liability from $1 billion to $386 million -- of which $83 million is alleged profit and $303 million is principal.