It’s late January so it’s time for the Academy’s yearly announcement of films that deserve Oscars but more that do not (2018 edition). To be fair to the Academy, this year’s crop of nominees look pretty solid. Let’s take an extremely biased look at the main categories and see who should win, but who will probably win because reasons.

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread

Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out

Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (Should win) (Will win)

Denzel Washington – Roman J Israel, Esq

A very strong field and honestly all very deserving winners but ultimately this is Gary Oldman’s year. He’s won the Golden Globe, the S.A.G and he’ll get his hat-trick with the Best Actor Oscar (weirdly his first, I mean surely he should’ve been nominated more, right?). His main competition will be Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread, a film about haunted cotton, I presume (Phantom Thread has yet to be released in the UK at the time of writing, don’t judge me), but with this reportedly being his swansong film, maybe the Academy will give Day-Lewis that fourth Oscar he so clearly needs.

Best Actress

Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Should win) (Will win)

Margot Robbie – I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird

Meryl Streep – The Post

Frances McDormand better win her second Oscar for her absolutely stunning portrayal of a grieving mother in Thee Billboards...who has decided to stop giving a fuck and propel the local police force into finding her daughter’s killer. It’s funny, heartbreaking, subtle and bombastic. She has to win. Her only competition is Sally Hawkins but, like Oldman, McDormand already has the Golden Globe and S.A.G under her belt. It’s hers.

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project

Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water

Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World

Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Should win) (Will win)

I know I’ve gone for a third category in a row where should and will win match up but it’s Sam Rockwell’s year. Consistently brilliant performer who is criminally underrated will win for Three Billboards…his performance was comically note-perfect and showed a great range throughout. His co-star Woody Harrelson was fantastic as always but Rockwell’s only competition realistically is Willem Defoe for the wonderful Florida Project.

Honourable mention to Christopher Plummer for blagging a spot purely just to piss off Kevin Spacey. However in 2018, it’s Sam’s town.

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J Blige – Mudbound

Allison Janney – I, Tonya (Will win)

Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread

Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird

Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

Slight confession here – I’ve not actually seen any of the films aforementioned through sheer laziness (Mudbound) or because they have yet to be released in the UK (the rest). So I won’t tell you who I think should win but based on awards won already I’ll say Alison Janney as she’s cleaned up already a la Oldman and McDormand.

Best Director

Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk

Jordan Peele – Get Out (Should win)

Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird

Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread

Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water (Will win)

I know I’ve not seen The Shape of Water. I know Del Toro is a cracking director but Get Out was such a wonderful surprise and a pitch perfect debut directing gig from Jordan Peele. Suspense was ratcheted up in those opening 45 minutes and chaos reigned in the following 45 so well thanks to Peele’s excellent direction. The scene with the cop pulling over Chris and Rose to the “Give me the keys!” scene. It’s like Peele was slowly tightening a belt around your chest. Stunning. However only one female director in the shortlist in Greta Gerwig? Where’s Patty Jenkins for Wonder Woman? SHE MADE THE DCEU RELEVANT AGAIN AND THAT NO MAN’S LAND SCENE WAS SPINE-TINGLING. SPINE. TINGLING.

Best Picture

Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Get Out (Should win)

Lady Bird

Phantom Thread

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Will win)

Best Animated Feature

The Boss Baby (Better not win)

The Breadwinner

Coco (Better win)

Ferdinand

Loving Vincent

Are you taking the piss? Coco better win.

I’ve given a lot of love to Three Billboards, but Get Out deserves the win. It’s well shot, acted, written, directed and took all the money for Universal studios and was smarter than pretty much every horror/thriller in the last ten years. But all the awards wins so far are pointing to an Oscar for Best Picture for Three Billboards – I just can’t see it being denied come the big night. There’s a possible outside shot for Dunkirk or Shape of Water but I think Christopher Nolan is going home empty handed, the academy will reward Del Toro personally and feel that’s enough. And Martin McDonagh is gonna drown in gold.

So agree? Disagree? Have your say down below and we can see who’s right when the winners of the 90th Academy Awards will be announced the night of March 4th 2018.