Here we are at the quarter-pole of the NFL season, and just like every year there are some major surprises. One of the most shocking stat-lines through the first four weeks is Rob Gronkowski’s 1/11/0. At no point in the heat of draft season did I hear even a whisper that Gronk was going to miss any time to start the season. Through four weeks, he has missed two games, and has played limited snaps (14, 39) in the other two. At this point, Gronk owners need to hope that the Patriots had planned all along to ease him back into the action and then unleash him when Brady returns in Week 5.

Enough of the doom and gloom. One of the more pleasant surprises of the 2016 season is the play of Matt Ryan. Through four games he has averaged 368 yards per game and has 11 touchdowns to just one interception. At this rate, he is on schedule to break the single season yardage record by 400+ yards. Of course, having a 500 yard game splashed in there doesn’t hurt the ol’ average. With Ryan being the 20th quarterback off the board, (according to fantasypros ADP) chances are you have another top-tier quarterback on your roster. If you can move the ice-man for the right price, the time is now.

Week 5: Workin’ the Wire

Is anyone out there worried about Carson Palmer? He has produced solid yardage totals in his first four games, but he has only one 20+ point fantasy game to show for it. Now he is entering concussion protocol and his status for Week 5 is highly doubtful with it being a short week. I am by no means suggesting that you give Palmer his walking papers, but he is no longer an auto-start going forward.

Speaking of quarterbacks entering concussion protocol, league MVP Cam Newton will be checking in after taking a hard shot to the head on a two-point conversion run.

If I am a Newton owner, I am not sweating his relatively slow start (two weeks <16 fantasy points). He has faced two of the toughest defenses in the league in Denver and Minnesota. His schedule lightens up considerably.

If Newton or Palmer should miss Week 5, of the two backup options I would lean to Derek Anderson. He looked solid in his relief work Sunday, and gets a Buccaneers defense that has allowed multiple touchdown passes in each of their first four games. I hope that you are not in a situation in which you will be calling on Derek Anderson, but desperate times call for desperate measures.

I don’t live by many rules, but I do have one, and that is to not trust someone with two first names. I am considering making an exception for Hunter Henry. Antonio Gates has missed the last two games, in his absence Henry has filled in admirably hauling in 9/12 targets for 133 yards and a score. Ultimately, Henry’s success is dependent on Gates’s health. Even so, he is worth a stash for as much as Rivers slings it.

Start’em

Derek Carr vs. SD

Carr put on an impressive game-winning drive Sunday that put a hurting on my wallet. Sorry kids, no diapers this week. Even though I wasn’t a fan of what transpired on that drive, I have to respect it.

Carr has been strong all season. He has scored 22+ fantasy points in three of his four games. This week he gets a Chargers defense that has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They have particularly struggled on the road allowing 363 and 331 yards through the air. With the volume Carr is putting it up, (no fewer than 35 attempts in any game) and accuracy, (one interception) I could see him finishing as a top 5 quarterback in Week 5.

Eli Manning @ GB

I know the Packers have only played three games, so it isn’t much of a sample size, but I have a good stat for you.

On the 71 rushing attempts they have faced this season, they have allowed only 128 yards rushing. That is 1.8 yards per carry!

On the other hand, the Packers have allowed 330 passing yards per game. The Giants didn’t have much of a ground game to begin with. The injuries they have sustained in the early part of the year havemade the running game basically non-existent. Eli will be throwing early and often. The receiving trio of Beckham, Cruz, and Shepard is a tough matchup for any secondary.

Martellus Bennett @ CLE

Want to win a bet? The next time you are engaged in a fantasy conversation ask them to name the top 5 fantasy tight ends through the first four weeks of the season. Sure, they will be able to spit out Olsen and Reed. The students of the game will be able to recall Kelce, but no one is going to say Zach Miller at #4 or #5 Martellus Bennett. Being in the top five is even more impressive when you take into consideration that he has two games on his ledger in which he has posted less than 15 yards receiving.

Bennett’s opponent in Week 5, the Browns, have allowed more receptions to opposing tight ends than any other team. Even if Gronk comes to life in Week 5, there will be enough food on the table for them to both eat. I expect Brady to comeback in full F U mode. There will be yards to be had and I expect Bennett to put his name beside a good chunk of them.

Dennis Pitta vs. WAS

The Redskins have done a solid job against tight ends, but as the injuries pile up on the defensive side of the ball, the task becomes more difficult. Last week, Gary Barnidge caught all seven of his targets against the Redskins and I expect a similar output from Pitta. To me he is still a hard sell in standard leagues, but he definitely deserves a look in PPR formats this week.

Sit’em

Matt Ryan @ DEN

I didn’t know it was possible that there would ever be a scenario in which it was easy to bench a quarterback who is coming off a 500 yard passing game, but I think this fits the bill. The Broncos have allowed 22, 11, 11, and 13 points to opposing quarterbacks. The fluky thing about those numbers is that Newton ran for a touchdown against them in Week 1 and Winston put one in this past week. Take away the rushing touchdowns and it turns into 16, 11, 11, and 7. Pretty nasty.

I mentioned it above, but it is worth saying again. If you are stacked at quarterback the time to trade Matt Ryan is now. His value will never be higher. After this tough matchup, he heads back across the country in Week 6 to take on the Seahawks coming off a bye. It won’t help that they give up the third fewest points to opposing quarterbacks either.

Dak Prescott vs. CIN

The Cowboys are running hot winning three straight. Just as hot, is rookie quarterback Dak Prescott who has completed 73, 79, and 72 percent of his passes during that winning streak. I don’t know about your league, but mine doesn’t award any points for completing passes at a high clip. In the stats that do matter, he ranks 18th in yards, and is outside the top 25 in touchdown passes. At this stage of his career, Prescott is a better “real life” quarterback than he is a “fantasy” quarterback.

Kyle Rudolph vs. HOU

It is not easy to sit a guy down who has scored in three straight games, but I am steering clear of Rudolph in Week 5. The Texans haven’t allowed more than 34 yards to an opposing tight end this season. That stat has even more pop to it when you factor in that they have faced three of the previously mentioned top 5 scoring tight ends (Miller, Kelce, Bennett). Add in that they held last year’s TE reception leader, Delanie Walker, to two catches and it is safe to say that whatever they are doing is working.

Eric Ebron vs. PHI

Speaking of teams who have been tough on opposing tight ends, the Philadelphia Eagles have allowed just six receptions to tight ends. On top of the tough matchup, Ebron is banged up. Last week, he needed medical attention in the first quarter. He missed a few series while the training staff was checking out his knee and ankle, but he did return. Ebron has produced, catching at least four passes in each game this season. Likewise, the yardage has been consistent ranging in the 42-69 yard window in each game. If you are satisfied with a 4/50 line, go ahead and run him out there, but this week, his ceiling feels awfully low.

Stack Play: Brady to Gronk/Bennett

Gronk’s performance to this point hasn’t done much to inspire confidence in this pick. However, I am a firm believer that once the Patriots started out 2-0 they shifted to the mindset that anything on top of that was gravy (or icing if you have a sweet tooth). A decision was made that they would work Gronk back slowly and have him ready to roll full bore in Week 5 when Brady returned. This is obviously complete speculation, but if they would have started out 0-2, I have to believe that Gronk would have played more than 53 total snaps in Weeks 3 and 4.

As for the matchup, the Browns have allowed 10 touchdown passes through four games. If you aren’t the sharpest at math that is over two per game. Despite the layoff, I expect Brady to come out looking sharp with Gronk and Bennett to be the main beneficiaries.

Good luck this week. Hit me up on twitter @barkballin.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

(Click the RED link to listen)

Major League Fantasy Football Show: Join Ej Garr, Corey D Roberts, and Coach Andy Macuga live Sunday October 9th, 2016 from 11am-12:30pm EST for episode #71 of Major League Fantasy Football Radio. This is a live broadcast and we take callers at 323-870-4395 press 1 to speak with the hosts. We will be breaking down key matchups, discussing fantasy start/sit, some DFS, and handicapping as well.

Andy is the Head Coach for Borrego Springs H.S. in Southern California, a 4 year veteran of MLFS leagues, and frequent guest on our shows. Our special guest this week is Chris Welsh of inthisleague.com. They do podcasts for all 3 major sports amongst other things. Very entertaining stuff so check them out.

You can find our shows on I-Tunes. Just search for Major League Fantasy Sports in the podcasts section. For Android users go to “Podcast Republic,” then download that app, and search for “Major League Fantasy Sports Show

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