RRH Elections January 2020 Senate Rankings

It is time for this month’s Senate Rankings. Here is this month’s map:

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R DE (Coons)

IL (Durbin)

MA (Markey)

NJ (Booker)

OR (Merkley)

RI (Reed)

VA (Warner) MN (Smith)

NH (Shaheen)

NM (OPEN) CO (Gardner) AZ (McSally)

ME (Collins)

MI (Peters) AL (Jones)

GA-L (Loeffler)

KS (OPEN)

NC (Tillis) GA-P (Perdue)

IA (Ernst)

KY (McConnell)

SC (Graham)

TX (Cornyn) AK (Sullivan)

AR (Cotton)

ID (Risch)

LA (Cassidy)

MS (Hyde-Smith)

MT (Daines)

NE (Sasse)

OK (Inhofe)

SD (Rounds)

TN (OPEN)

WV (Capito)

WY (OPEN)

RRH Elections has made the following 5 changes to our Senate Ratings since our last update in September, 2 in Republicans’ favor:

Michigan Tossup from Lean D || Montana Safe R from Likely R

And 3 in favor of Democrats:

Maine Tossup from Lean R || Kansas Lean R from Likely R || South Carolina Likely R from Safe R

These ratings mean we are currently projecting a net shift in the Senate of between R+1 and D+2.

Flip over for the full narratives!

Nov 2019

Leans Toward Challenging Party:

1.Alabama Lean R (1)

Sen. Doug Jones (D) remains an outright underdog as he seeks a full term in his deep-red state. Jones, as you no doubt recall, won his office in a shock upset in 2017 by virtue of his opponent, ex-State Supreme Court Justice and legendary mall-walker Roy Moore (R), and his myriad of egregious issues. However, Jones still only won by a narrow margin, demonstrating the size and rigidity of Alabama’s huge inelastic conservative base. Perhaps knowing he is more likely than not to lose in 2020 and hoping to keep his options open for an administration position, Jones has not been a vocally conservative Democrat. Though he is one of the caucus’s more moderate members, he has not made a particularly conscious effort to separate himself from the national Democratic Party despite representing a state where national Democrats are toxic. Thus, this seat is obviously Republicans’ best pickup opportunity. There is a chance that Jones could get the good fortune of facing yet another subpar GOP nominee, especially as Moore is running again. However, Moore is toxic with GOP voters and unlikely to get the nomination, and it’s hard to imagine any Republican being quite as toxic as he was. The front-runner for the GOP nod is ex-Sen. and ex-US AG Jeff Sessions (R), who surprisingly announced that he would mount a comeback bid for his old seat at the filing deadline. Due to his statewide name recognition and decades of incumbency, Sessions is likely to start as the front-runner. However, Sessions does have a Sword of Damocles hanging over his head in his frayed relationship with President Trump. As AG, Sessions angered the President by recusing himself from the Mueller investigation, which has led to a distinct possibility that Trump could torpedo Sessions’s campaign with a single angry tweet. Thus, Sessions’s entry was not enough to push out any other major Republican who had been in the race to take on Jones, and a primary runoff is likely. Prior to Sessions’s entry, the front-runners for the nomination were Rep. Bradley Byrne (R) of the Mobile area, an establishment conservative, and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R), who has broad name recognition but is unproven as a candidate. Both have stayed in the race and have criticized Sessions’s relationship with Trump, and one of the two seems likely to advance to a runoff with Sessions. Also in the race are Moore and little-known State Rep. Arnold Mooney (R), who has some self-funding ability. Barring an unlikely Moore nomination, the deep-red lean of the state and presidential-year electorate (which Trump is certain to easily carry) should make any GOP nominee at least a moderate favorite to oust Jones. We are keeping this race in the relatively competitive Lean R category because as an incumbent, Jones will likely be able to command some national resources and could make the race competitive. But make no mistake, Jones’s path to a full term is an exceptionally steep one in any likely scenario.

2. Colorado Lean D (2)

Sen. Cory Gardner (R) is one of just two Republican Senators sitting in a state that Hillary won in 2016, and is thus certain to face a tough fight for a second term. And while Gardner is a strong campaigner, unlike the other Hillary-state Republican, Maine’s Susan Collins (R), he does not have decades of a moderate personal brand. While Gardner has been one of the more moderate members of the Senate GOP caucus and has made some high-profile breaks with GOP orthodoxy, he is still an establishment conservative in a state that in recent years has proven to be more light blue than purple. Thus, Democrats are certain to make the race a priority. Democrats landed their top recruit for this race in ex-Gov. John Hickenlooper (D), who dropped his third-tier Presidential campaign to jump into the race. Hickenlooper is a popular moderate liberal who is likely to be a very strong recruit for the race, and the limited polling of the race has shown him leading Gardner. However, Hickenlooper does still need to get through the primary, and there has been grumbling on the left that he is not liberal enough for the state’s blue tint. Hickenlooper’s biggest-name primary challenger is ex-State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D), who is seeking to restart his career after a Senate primary loss in 2010 and a congressional loss in 2014. Romanoff entered the race before Hickenlooper entered, but has refused to drop out, instead hoping to stay in the race and catch left-wing enthusiasm. Romanoff has fundraised credibly and could pose a threat in the primary, but so far Democrats’ enthusiasm for beating Gardner and Hickenlooper’s personal brand seem likely to make Hickenlooper the clear favorite. Overall, the entry of the strongest possible Dem recruit in Hickenlooper and the light-blue lean of the state mean we are marking Gardner as an outright underdog. However, Gardner should not be counted out and retains real advantages; as we saw in his impressive 2014 win, he is a strong campaigner, and Colorado is also only a light blue and continues to be very winnable for Republicans under the right circumstances. Hickenlooper could also be dogged by a low-burn scandal around his potentially improper acceptance of travel and gifts as Governor. While so far the scandal has not amounted to much, it could potentially provide bad headlines at the wrong time for him. Thus, while we mark Democrats as slight favorites to flip the seat, the race is still highly competitive and Gardner pulling the upset is far from out of the question.

Tossups:

3. Arizona Tossup (3)

Appointed incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R) got a second chance at a Senate seat after narrowly losing the 2018 general election to now-Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D), by being appointed to the other seat by Gov. Doug Ducey (R). McSally now has a two-year term to make her case before a special election in 2020. Emboldened by their victories in 2018 for the Senate race and other statewide posts, Democrats are certain to seriously contest this seat. McSally will likely avoid one problem that handicapped her severely in 2018, a hotly-contested (and late) primary. Her only primary challenger of note is cosmetics company executive Daniel McCarthy (R), who has self-funding ability and could be an annoyance in the primary. However, McCarthy gave off a distinctly gadflyish impression out of the gate by advocating that the US conquer Mexico. Thus, most of the GOP establishment has fallen in line behind McSally’s bid and the general election for this race has essentially already begun. Democrats have coalesced around astronaut Mark Kelly (D), the husband of ex-Rep. Gabby Giffords (D), who entered the race to significant national buzz and multi-million dollar fundraising hauls. Kelly has generally outraised McSally, though both will have more than enough cash to saturate the airwaves. Kelly’s fundraising has scared off primary rivals, most notably Rep. Ruben Gallego (D), and it seems unlikely he will face a strong challenge for the nomination. Polling of the race already shows it very close and it seems certain to be one of the year’s most competitive contests. Kelly is a strong candidate for Democrats, though he has faced some questions about his work for a multi-level marketing company. And while McSally’s campaign in 2018 was somewhat mediocre, she is still a good candidate with a moderate record in Congress and compelling biography of being the first female combat fighter pilot. Arizona has had a significant leftward trend in recent years, and is likely to be hotly contested at the Presidential level in 2020 for the first time in a generation. While early polling has generally shown Kelly with a low-single-digit edge, it is certain to be highly competitive through to the fall. Thus, overall the race definitely continues to belong in the Tossup category.

4. Michigan Tossup (6)

As one of two Democrats in a state Trump carried, Sen. Gary Peters (D) is looking like the second-most-plausible GOP offensive Senate target after Jones. Peters is an establishment liberal and among the most backbench of Senators, with a recent poll showing him having low statewide name ID. However, his campaign skills should not be underestimated; aided by a subpar opponent, he won by a surprisingly large double-digit margin in 2014 in spite of the GOP wave. Though Democrats swept the statewide races in 2018, Michigan appears to be on a rightward trend, as evidenced by Trump carrying the state in 2016 and Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) winning by a surprisingly modest 6-point margin last year. Republicans’ recruit to take on Peters is their 2018 nominee, businessman John James (R). James, a young and well-spoken Iraq veteran and business owner of African-American heritage, became a national conservative star last year with a strong and well-funded campaign. He has quickly coalesced all-but-unanimous support from Republicans. James also posted a very strong fundraising quarter, outraising Peters by $1M. Polls have shown the race competitive, though generally with a Peters lead in the low-single-digits. Overall, Peters’s incumbency, inoffensive Generic D profile, and proven skill from the 2014 race are strong assets in a purple state. However, being generic can be something of a double-edged sword, as Peters’s ability to outrun the Democratic baseline is most likely not great, and James could be a strong and relatively unconventional recruit for the GOP. If Trump is winning the state again or coming close, James getting over the top seems well within the realm of possibility. Overall, James’s strong fundraising and candidate skills lead us to push this race over the line into the Tossup category, and it seems likely to be one of the most competitive races of the cycle.

5. Maine Tossup (5)

It seems likely that perhaps the biggest loser from the Impeachment tribunal has been Sen. Susan Collins (R). Collins historically has had one of the strongest personal brands of any Senator, with a long history as one of the Senate’s most moderate members and strong campaign skills that allowed her to take the seat in an upset in 1996 and easily turn back strong challenges in 2002 and 2008. However, there is some reason to think the 2020 race may be her toughest re-election fight yet. Collins’s pivotal vote for Kavanaugh and defense of him on the Senate floor has enraged many liberals, though it has endeared her to Republicans and almost certainly means she will not face a serious primary challenger. Additionally, as arguably the most moderate member of the Senate GOP caucus, her every breath has been scrutinized in the impeachment process, which has left her not particularly endeared with either side; a recent poll had her favorability ratings flipping to negative territory, an unfamiliar position for the Senator. While Maine has seen a mild rightward trend, it is still a blue state and likely to be carried by the Dem nominee. Combined with increasing polarization in congressional races and a map bereft of many better targets, that situation seems likely to lead national Dems to focus on the race. Democrats have a credible “B” list choice to take on Collins in State House Speaker Sara Gideon (D), an establishment liberal who generated considerable national buzz and received the DSCC endorsement. However, Gideon’s campaign has stumbled out of the gate with revelations that she illegally used PAC funds to reimburse her personal political donations. Gideon received a slap on the wrist for the illegal maneuver, which was properly disclosed, but the bad optics could be a problem for her. Two other Democrats are also in the race, lobbyist and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Betsy Sweet (D), who could get to Gideon’s left in the primary, and Google executive Ross LaJeunesse (D), who could have self-funding ability. Collins likely needs to clear 50% to win thanks to Ranked Choice Voting, where votes from (mostly liberal) third-party candidates redistribute. That task should still be manageable for Collins, who has not taken below 58% in any of her three re-election runs, even with her compromised crossover support. With Democrats increasingly training their fire on this seat as a top pickup opportunity, it looks like this year could be Collins’s toughest race since her initial Senate election back in 1996. Thus, we are pushing the race over the line into the Tossup category due to the potential for straight-ticket Dem votes to carry the day. However, with Collins having proven campaign skill and a historically-strong brand, her strength should not be underestimated, and the race remains toward the GOP-leaning side of the Tossup range.

Leans Toward Incumbent Party:

6. North Carolina Lean R (4)

North Carolina likes swapping out its Senators, as it has not gone more than 6 years without at least one Senate seat turning over since 1972. Sen. Thom Tillis (R) could break that streak if he wins a second term. Tillis is an establishment conservative and known as a key architect of conservative policy, particularly in his prior work at the state level as House Speaker. Tillis will not face a serious primary challenger, as investor Garland Tucker (R) dropped out at the filing deadline, removing a potential headache. As North Carolina is a very pale shade of red, Tillis is likely to be a top Democratic target in the general, but Democrats will be settling for only a “C” list recruit here. The Democratic establishment favors ex-State Sen. Cal Cunningham (D), a veteran who lost the primary for the 2010 US Senate race (in spite of having the most establishment support) and has not won elected office in 20 years. However, Cunningham has been the only Dem to fundraise credibly, which was enough to get him the DSCC endorsement. Two primary rivals are running to Cunnigham’s left; State Sen. Erica Smith (D) is a little-known legislator from the poor, rural northeast part of the state, while Mecklenburg County commissioner Trevor Fuller (D) is a bold progressive with little name rec outside his home county; both have had little fundraising but could yet mount serious campaigns. So far Democrats look more likely than not to settle for Cunningham, who is not a terrible recruit but no one’s idea of a rockstar. Overall in the general, North Carolina is a purple state and the race seems likely to be highly competitive. However, Trump is more likely than not to carry the state, Tillis is an incumbent, and Cunningham seems a thoroughly mediocre recruit for Democrats. Thus, we feel comfortable marking Tillis as a moderate favorite to hold the seat.

7. Georgia (Loeffler) Lean R (7)

Gov. Brian Kemp (R) shook up the race to finish the term of resigned Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) when he tapped finance executive Kelly Loeffler (R) as his appointee for the seat. Loeffler, who will seek to finish the term as an incumbent, is an interesting candidate; a top executive at the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange, she could present a could present a compelling outsider establishment conservative profile to win over potentially-waffling suburban Republicans. However, Loeffler seems unlikely to have the GOP field to herself. Rep. Doug Collins (R), a mainstream conservative with a good rapport with Trump, was snubbed by Kemp for the appointment in spite of an endorsement from Trump. Collins now seems more likely than not to challenge Loeffler in the Louisiana Rules Top Two race for the seat on a more populist and Trumpist platform. The race between Collins and Loeffler seems likely to split the state’s GOP down the middle between Loeffler’s more suburban and fiscally-focused base and Collins’s more rural and populist-Trumpist one. Democrats could potentially capitalize on that cleavage, but for now they are still struggling to find top-tier recruits for the seat. A pair of “B” to “C” list Democrats are in the race, businessman Matt Lieberman (D), son of ex-CT Sen. Joe (D), who fundraised credibly in his first quarter in the race, as well as ex-US Attorney Ed Tarver (D). Minister Rapahel Warnock (D), who preaches at MLK’s former Ebeneezer Baptist Church, is also seriously considering a bid, though Warnock has declined overtures to run before, and several other Dems have been speculated as having some interest. The potentially nasty race between Loeffler and Collins could be a boon to Democrats. However, Georgia has been fools’ gold for the party in recent years, as despite minority and upscale white influx, the state has maintained a light but very consistent red lean. Trump is also likely to carry the state unless he is losing by a landslide. Additionally, with Democrats unlikely to unite behind a single candidate who could shoot for the 50% mark in November, the real race for this seat is likely to be the runoff in January, when turning out Democrats once again will be an additional challenge. Thus, we start Republicans as moderate favorites in this race, but the potential for a nasty internecine GOP feud continuing all the way to November means Democrats have the potential to capitalize.

8. Kansas Lean R (11)

Sen. Pat Roberts (R) will, as expected, retire after four terms. Republicans will have a crowded primary to succeed him, as the one potential field-clearer in the race, US SoS Mike Pompeo (R), has repeatedly declined a bid in spite of continual whispers that he was reconsidering. Four major Republicans are in the race. Rep. Roger Marshall (R) is an establishment conservative with some moderate tendencies who represents the GOP-primary-vote-rich rural western part of the state. State Senate Pres. Susan Wagle (R) is one of the few candidates who can bridge the large divide between the state party’s moderate and conservative wings, and ex-Johnson county commissioner and former NFL player Dave Lindstrom (R) could have some name recognition. However, Republicans are most concerned about the fourth candidate in the race, ex-SoS Kris Kobach (R), a polarizing antiestablishment conservative who blew the 2018 gubernatorial election with a poor campaign but retains strong appeal to the GOP base. Kobach receiving the nomination is likely a prerequisite for Democrats to be competitive here, but that is looking like an increasingly probable scenario. Democrats’ likely nominee is State Sen. Barbara Bollier (R->D), a former RINO from the Kansas City suburbs who switched parties and entered the race to significant establishment backing. Also in the race is Manhattan councilwoman Usha Reddi (D), who seems a longer-shot in the primary. Bollier’s GOP background and moderate platform could make her a credible contender against Kobach in spite of the deep-red lean of the state. With Kobach looking more likely to get the nomination, we are pushing the race over the line into the Lean R category. However, do not overstate the case here; the federal race and presidential year should leave any Republican, even Kobach, at least a moderately strong favorite. This is notably the only seat in the entire Senate that has been held by the GOP for 100 years. But with the potential for both a flawed GOP nominee and for Democrats to make a serious play here, we are pushing the race into the more competitive Lean R category.

Likely to Stay with Incumbent Party:

9. Georgia (Perdue) Likely R (9)

Georgia’s leftward trend means Democrats seem likely to target Sen. David Perdue (R) as he seeks a second term. Perdue has announced he will run again; as an inoffensive establishment conservative, he seems unlikely to draw a serious primary challenger, especially with Loeffler’s seat also up for grabs. Somewhat surprisingly, Democrats have a seriously contested primary for this seat as four low “B” to “C” list Democrats piled into this race, even as the party continues to struggle with recruitment for the other seat. 2017 GA-6 congressional nominee Jon Ossoff (D) is well-known due to his massive fundraising for the GA-6 special two years ago, but demonstrated mediocre campaign skills there. Ex-Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson (D) has experience as a moderate mayor of the midsize, light blue city, but is little-known statewide. 2018 LG nominee Sarah Riggs-Amico (D) could have some self-funding ability as she is an executive at her family’s trucking firm, though the firm filing for bankruptcy could give her bad publicity. And Clarkston Mayor Ted Terry (D) could have some left-wing grassroots enthusiasm. Democrats have shown enthusiasm for the race, and synergy with two seats up in a left-trending state means that national Democrats are certain to seriously contest the seat. However, Perdue is a decently strong incumbent, Georgia is a light but consistent red, and the state requires runoffs if no candidate hits 50%. That likely means the Dem nominee will need to hit 50% in the first round to win, as turning out poorer minority voters en masse for a January second round will likely be an even bigger challenge than overcoming the lean of the state in November. Overall, with the other seat a more tantalizing target for Dems but signs this race could be competitive as well, we mark Perdue as a strong, but not prohibitive, favorite to hold the seat.

10. Iowa Likely R (8)

Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is seeking a second term after an upset win in 2014. As a little-known State Senator, Ernst upset then-Rep. Bruce Braley (D) thanks to the wave, coupled with a very strong campaign portraying her as a no-nonsense blue-collar veteran and farmer. Ernst has become a rising star in office as one of the Republican Party’s relatively few young, charismatic female leaders, and received national attention for her personal disclosure that she was abused by her husband and raped in college. Ernst is helped by a rightward trend in the state, which is looking more like a light-red one in recent years than its prior purple hue. However, Iowa is still swingy overall, as evidenced by significant Dem gains in 2018, and Ernst is likely to face a serious challenge in the general election. Dems largely struck out on recruitment here, as the Democratic field consists of four “C” listers. The DSCC somewhat surprisingly made an early endorsement of Teresa Greenfield (D), who was disqualified from a run for the House in IA-3 last year due to petition fraud in her campaign. Greenfield outraised Ernst in the third quarter, but still is well short of the incumbent’s warchest, and her effort last year suggests her campaign skills leave something to be desired. Three other Dems are in the primary. Eddie Mauro (D), who also lost a bid for IA-3 in the primary last year, seems a decidedly weak candidate after kicking off his campaign by criticizing Ernst’s military service, while former congressional staffer Michael Franken (D) and left-wing attorney Kimberly Graham (D) seem even longer-shots in the primary. Mauro also released an internal poll showing Ernst well above 50%, suggesting the incumbent is in very strong position. With the Dem establishment coalescing around Greenfield, bigger names seem unlikely to make a late entry. With Democrats’ mediocre recruitment, and polling showing Ernst in a very strong position, we feel confident in pushing the race even deeper into the Likely R category. However, Iowa is only light-red; if the cycle becomes poor for Republicans, this race could become one of the first to turn more competitive. But for now the lean of the state and Ernst’s campaign skills mean that the incumbent is a significant favorite.

11. New Hampshire Likely D (10)

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is an establishment liberal who is still well-remembered for her successful gubernatorial tenure in the 90s, giving her some crossover appeal. It is important to note Shaheen was widely regarded as kicking off her re-election campaign to a third term, but she left herself a loophole by saying she “intends” to run. If Shaheen makes a surprise change of course and retires ahead of New Hampshire’s late filing deadline, Democrats have two ready-made names succeed her, as at least one of Reps. Annie Kuster (D) and Chris Pappas (D) will likely run. Despite a state that has long been thought one of the nation’s swingiest, Republicans’ bench in the Granite State is mediocre. The best GOP candidate for this seat, Gov. Chris Sununu (R), has declined a bid to run for re-election. Republicans do some “B” list candidates in the race, particularly retired General Don Bolduc (R), who has an interesting story of working to raise awareness of veteran PTSD, but has not been proven as a candidate and fundraised poorly in his first quarter in the race. Attorney Corky Messner (R) also could be a credible candidate, as he has shown some self-funding ability. However, Bolduc or Messner making it through the primary is far from a given. Ex-State House Speaker Bill O’Brien (R), a polarizing antiestablishment conservative, has strong grassroots ties that could make him a major contender in the primary, but is likely to be a weak choice in the general election. Overall, with New Hampshire in recent years looking more of a pale blue than a true purple, and a largely unproven GOP bench, we mark Dems as substantial favorites in what will still likely be a competitive race.

12. Texas Likely R (13)

Texas Republicans got more than a little bit of a wakeup call last year, when then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) held Sen. Ted Cruz (R) to a surprisingly narrow 3-point win, suggesting the shift to the left the state saw in 2016 could be sustained. However, as Sen. John Cornyn (R) seeks a fourth term, there is reason to think he is in a better position than Cruz was last year. First, Cornyn, an establishment-friendly member of GOP Senate leadership, does not have the antiestablishment Cruz’s problems with the party’s moderate and establishment wings, while retaining a reasonably good rapport with the grassroots. Cornyn does have a primary challenger, businessman and Dallas Wings WNBA team owner Mark Yancey (R). Yancey could have some self-funding ability, but is running as something of a moderate and seems unlikely to be a real threat to oust Cornyn. Cornyn’s second asset is that in spite of Texas’s trend from deep-red to pink, it is still a red state that Trump is likely to carry unless he is losing in a landslide. And third, Texas Democrats do not have an obvious strong contender in the race, with five “B” to “C” list candidates making up the crowded primary field. The biggest names on Texas’s Dem bench, ex-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) and ex-San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro (D), both declined bids here after their Presidential bids failed to launch. Now, the seeming front-runner is 2018 TX-31 nominee MJ Hegar (D), who became a liberal grassroots favorite with a viral intro ad touting her military background last cycle and has raised the most of the field, but is attempting a pretty big fall upward here. Others in the race include State Sen. Royce West (D), a longtime liberal legislator from a deep-blue urban Dallas seat, 2000s-era ex-Rep. and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Chris Bell (D), who has since become a bit of a perennial candidate, Houston councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D), and left-wing nonprofit exec Christina Tzintzun-Ramirez (D). Any of the Dem candidates will face a tough time raising money and getting name recognition across the expansive and expensive state, though Beto did show that it can be done. Texas’s leftward trend can not be ignored, and for the first time in decades, there does seem to be a realistic pathway to a statewide Dem win. But overall, Cornyn still seems a very strong, though not quite prohibitive, favorite for re-election.

13. Minnesota Likely D (12)

Sen. Tina Smith (D) is up for a full term in 2020 after winning a special election last year and has become a backbench establishment liberal in the Senate. Though it has proven inelastic, Minnesota is a light blue state and Republicans seem likely to at least make an effort in this race. The likely GOP nominee is ex-Rep. Jason Lewis (R), a controversial antiestablishment conservative who nevertheless outperformed expectations in winning a purple House seat in 2016. Lewis has a long history of controversial statements from his radio show, which he generally explains as being for entertainment and shock value. In spite of his paper trail, Lewis has proven a decently strong if “B” list candidate in his House runs, and could be a credible contender if the year turns better for the GOP or if Trump is doing better than expected in the Gopher State. But with an incumbent running for re-election in a state that is a light but very consistent shade of blue, Democrats look like fairly strong favorites to hold the seat in a race that is still on the edge of the playing field.

14. Kentucky Likely R (14)

Senate Majority Leader “Cocaine” Mitch McConnell (R) has never been particularly beloved at home, with his main focus being as a faithful and ruthless implementer of conservative priorities in DC. However, McConnell benefits from being in a conservative state that is only growing more solidly red, and strong campaign skills backed up by an efficient team few pols at any level can match. Thus, McConnell looks to be in strong position to retain his seat. His good rapport with the President means McConnell will not face a strong GOP primary challenge, as in 2014, with his only rival of note this year being ex-State Rep. Wesley Morgan (R), a gadflyish moderate who lost a re-election primary last year and endorsed the Democrat. Dems’ most likely nominee is veteran and 2018 congressional candidate Amy McGrath (D), who fundraised well for a red-leaning Lexington area House seat last year, and raised a ridiculous $10M from national liberals upset with McConnell in her first quarter in the race. McGrath, however, did stumble out of the gate, with flip-flopping statements on Kavanaugh that gave the impression she was unable to decide whether she should adopt liberal positions to please her donors or moderate ones to please the red state electorate. Democrats have one other serious candidate in the race, State Rep. Charles Booker (D), but he is running to McGrath’s left and would likely be an even weaker general election nominee. On paper, McConnell’s insidery nature and low personal popularity, combined with McGrath’s ability to tap a Niagara Falls of national cash, could give Dems a realistic opening, and thus we leave this race on the edge of the playing field out of an abundance of caution. However, McConnell’s campaign skill coupled with the lean of the state mean the odds of any Dem actually toppling him are very small. Thus, national Democrats are more likely to see this race as a chance to tie the Majority Leader down to his home state for a while, and potentially embarrass him with a close shave, rather than a legitimate pickup opportunity.

15. New Mexico Likely D (15)

Sen. Tom Udall (D) became the first truly surprising Senate retirement of the cycle, or indeed in several cycles, when he bailed out of seeking a third term. However, it is looking like his retirement will not actually make the race much more competitive. Democrats have essentially cleared their primary field for Rep. Ben-Ray Lujan (D), who secured the DSCC’s endorsement and pushed his major primary rival, SoS Maggie Toulouse-Oliver (D), into dropping her bid. Most other big-name Democrats have decided against bids as well, meaning Lujan could get a totally free ride in the primary unless someone makes a late entry. As far as the general goes, New Mexico is not heavily Democratic, but just blue enough to be consistently frustrating for Republicans; statewide GOP candidates can often come somewhat close, but Democratic Senate nominees usually don’t have to sweat more than a little. So far Republicans seem to have had mediocre recruitment here, with a four “C” list choices. 2018 nominee and businessman Mick Rich (R) ran a somewhat credible campaign but is still little-known, while meteorologist Mark Ronchetti (R) is well-known from his time on local TV but is unproven as a candidate. Gavin Clarkson (R), a low-level Trump administration official and professor who lost a sacrificial-lamb run for SoS last year, and pro-life activist group director Elisa Martinez (R) are also in the race and could have a chance to surprise. The open seat and light-to-medium blue nature of the state leads us to leave the race on the edge of the playing field, but Lujan’s cleared primary and Republicans’ mediocre recruitment mean the race remains only on the very edge of the playing field. Thus, we mark Lujan as a very strong, but not quite prohibitive, favorite to hold the seat.

16. South Carolina Likely D (19)

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) seems to have markedly improved his standing with the GOP base over the last two years thanks to his defense of Kavanaugh and warming relationship with Trump. In particular, his high profile in the impeachment proceedings seems likely to insulate him from a GOP primary challenger in spite of his past moderate stances. However, his involvement as a Trump defender has been something of a double-edged sword due to the surge in funding from national liberal donors for his rival. Dems’ likely nominee is ex-SCDP chair Jaime Harrison (D), who has received a surprising amount of national Democratic enthusiasm for such a tough race and has fundraised very well with a warchest well into the 7-figures. Harrison has also shown some signs of being a strong candidate in his own right with some well-received videos about reaching out to the state’s poorer residents on non-partisan quality-of-life issues. While South Carolina is a fairly inelastic red state, Harrison’s cash haul, strength as a candidate, and appeal to national Dems can not be ignored, and out of an abundance of caution we are tipping this race onto the very edge of the playing field. However, that is not to overstate the case; South Carolina is a red state that Trump is likely to carry easily, and Harrison for now still has a very difficult row to hoe in getting the large amount of crossover support necessary to pull the upset. Thus, overall, Graham should still be the very strong favorite to hold this seat, though we now see the race as on the very edge of the playing field.

Safe for Incumbent Party:

17. Montana Safe R (16)

Sen. Steve Daines (R) is an inoffensive establishment conservative incumbent in a medium-red state, and thus despite sitting in a seat which never elected a Republican prior to his 2014 win, he does not seem particularly vulnerable as he seeks a second term. Even after his Presidential campaign ended, Dems’ most serious potential Daines rival, Gov. Steve Bullock (D), re-iterated that he was not interested in a Senate bid, and has since shown no signs of re-considering that decision. If Bullock made a late reversal and jumped in, the race would become competitive, but polling suggests Daines would still be a moderate favorite. It’s not over until the filing deadline, but with Bullock showing no signs of reconsidering, Montana Dems are mostly left with “C’ list options to take on Daines. Helena Mayor Wilmot Collins (D), who has an interesting story of being a Liberian refugee, looks like the biggest-name contender in the race, with veteran John Mues (D) and nonprofit exec Cora Neumann (D) also running. However, any non-Bullock Democrat is likely to face a very uphill fight against Daines, and so far none of his rivals look obviously up to the task. While there is still time for Democrats to put the seat back in play by recruiting Bullock or one of the other Dems upping their game, for now we see that as unlikely enough to shift the race just off the edge of the playing field. Thus, we now mark Daines as a prohibitive favorite for a second term.

18. Mississippi Safe R (20)

With filing closed, Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is set to face a rematch with her 2018 opponent, ex-Rep. and Clinton Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy (D), as she seeks a full term in 2020. Neither Hyde-Smith nor Espy faces strong primary challengers, clearing the way for a rematch. The 2018 special election race was somewhat close at an 8-point margin, but there is reason to think that Espy is unlikely to have any better luck this cycle. The special election last year was oddly-timed, which gave the media a chance to focus on the race – and go all-in for Espy by using some minor Hyde-Smith gaffes to paint her as racist (while also studiously ignoring a number of corruption scandals in Espy’s past). While Hyde-Smith’s political skills are not exactly great, the special election campaign rubbed many conservative Mississippians as the media trying a little too hard to make fetch happen with Espy, and Hyde-Smith retained essentially unanimous GOP support. Espy is a more credible candidate than average for Mississippi Dems given the anemic state of the Dem bench here, but with Trump on the ballot and Hyde-Smith having two more years of incumbency, it seems unlikely he can garner the requisite crossover support to pull the upset. While Hyde-Smith’s underwhelming 2018 win, her questionable political skills, and Espy’s credibility lead us to mark this race relatively high up in the Safe category, we still feel the inelastic conservative lean of Mississippi is strong enough to mark the GOP as prohibitive favorites to hold the seat.

19. Alaska Safe R (21)

Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R) is seeking a second term, and as a backbench establishment conservative in a red state, he should be in good position to get it. However, Alaska has been trending somewhat left as of late which may pique Dems’ interest. Surgeon Al Gross (I/D) has fundraised surprisingly credibly in his first few months in the race and has ties to the state’s Democratic establishment; he seems likely to be the consensus pick to take on Sullivan. Gross could be an interesting recruit for his outsider pedigree and nominal Independent brand, but his platform is staunchly left-wing and he is unproven as a candidate. Gross’s credible fundraising means he could potentially be a surfboard if lightning strikes in a particularly unforseen way, and thus this race has been drifting towards the upper end of the Safe category. However, barring a major GOP unforced error, Alaska’s red lean seems likely to make Sullivan a prohibitive favorite in the general.

20. New Jersey Safe D (22)

About this point is where the “Safe” category transitions from races that could potentially move onto the board if unlikely events happen to ones where a true lightning strike would be necessary to even make the contest competitive. There is little better evidence for how brutal New Jersey is for Republican statewide candidates than the 2018 race, in which a Senator who got out of blatant corruption charges by the skin of his teeth and closeness of his machine connections managed to convincingly defeat a Republican with plenty of money and a compelling biography. Thus, Sen. Cory “Spartacus” Booker (D) looks unlikely to face any particular problem in seeking a second full term. Booker’s high profile and liberal histrionics seem unlikely to present him much trouble in the primary or general. Though his Presidential campaign never got traction, Booker is still likely to be at least on the short list for the VP slot as his African-American heritage, relative youth, and corporate-liberal ideology could be a good complement for many of the front-running Democrats. If Booker makes a last-minute bailout for the VP nomination (and does not take the opportunity to seek both seats at once), there is a deep bench of Dems waiting to succeed him. Foremost among them may be Rep. Don Norcross (D), whose brother George (D) serves as dictator of the southern half of the state and has pull with the machines in the north as well. Other potential candidates could include Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop (D), Reps. Frank Pallone (D), Josh Gottheiemer (D), and Mikie Sherrill (D), and LG Sheila Oliver (D). Republicans have few good options in the Garden State after our bench was nearly wiped out over the last few years. Attorney and pharma exec Rik Mehta (R), who may have some self-funding ability, looks like the most serious candidate to jump into the race against Booker so far. Though the most likely scenario by far is that Booker heads to an uneventful re-election, there is the possibility of him being on the national ticket and something strange resulting. Thus, we are leaving this race relatively high in the Safe category.

21. Tennessee Safe R (18)

After Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) announced he would not seek a third term, this race has seen a very strong front-runner named Bill H. declare, but not the one people had been expecting. After popular ex-Gov. Bill Haslam (R) declined a bid, President Trump surprisingly issued an endorsement of Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty (R) in this race. Hagerty has never sought office before, but the Trump endorsement and his self-funding ability have essentially scared off all established GOP pols. Hagerty thus looks like the very strong front-runner for the seat, though he does face one credible rival in the primary. Surgeon Manny Sethi (R), who has connections to the network of ex-Sen. Bill Frist (R), with whom he worked in his medical career, is also in the race, and could potentially have the cash and connections to be a potential threat to Hagerty. After their strongest possible recruit, ex-Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), went down by a substantial margin in a Democratic wave year, Dems are unlikely to have much enthusiasm for contesting this race. Attorney and veteran James Mackler (D) is starting to look like Dems’ consensus choice, but seems “C” list at best. The race could potentially pop onto the edge of the playing field if the GOP nominee proves weaker than expected. But for now, Hagerty continues to be on a surprising glide path to the Senate, and we continue to mark Republicans as overwhelming favorites to hold the seat.

22. Virginia Safe D (17)

In spite of his narrow re-election victory in 2014 when he was almost caught sleeping, Sen. Mark Warner (D) remains in good position for a third term. Warner’s tenure as Governor in the early 2000s is still remembered fondly, and he is an inoffensive moderate-liberal in a state that seems to be rapidly swinging from purple to blue. Thus, Warner is unlikely to get a particularly strong challenge. Ex-Rep. Scott Taylor (R), who lost a purple district in 2018 amid a minor scandal in his campaign, was initially running against Warner, but dropped out to seek a rematch for his old House seat with now-Rep. Elaine Luria (D). Thus, Republicans are left with only unknowns in this race. A trio of little-known veterans, Daniel Gade (R), Omari Faulkner (R), and Thomas Speciale (R), have been receiving some minor buzz, but all have much to prove to rise to the level of a seriously credible candidate. Thus, Warner remains the prohibitive favorite to hold the seat and we leave this race off the board in the Safe category.

23. Massachusetts Safe D (26)

Sen. Ed Markey (D) is seeking a second full term, but surprisingly has drawn the biggest-name primary challenge of all this cycle, as Heir Force Supreme Allied Commander Joe Kennedy III (D) has decided to challenge him in the primary. Markey began his Congressional career in the 70s and, despite his staunch liberal views, in some ways does seem more of a throwback to Democrats of that era in his aloof, insidery style (not to mention the open secret that he hasn’t lived in the state in decades). Markey has been working to inoculate himself by moving even harder to the ideological left, most notably by sponsoring AOC’s half-baked, pie-in-the-sky progressive wishlist (I’m sorry, “Green New Deal”) in the Senate, and then throwing a temper-tantrum when Cocaine Mitch brought it up for a vote. Kennedy has little resume or accomplishments in his four terms in the House to go on, as he has mostly been a backbech establishment liberal vote. However, this is Massachusetts, and little details like being grossly unqualified tend not to matter much if your name is Kennedy (even if you’re not one of those Kennedies to boot). Overall, the primary is likely to be highly competitive and so far there is no clear favorite, though Kennedy’s name has allowed him to lead the couple polls of the race released so far, and it’s hard to ever bet against a Kennedy in Massachusetts. Regardless of the nominee, they are unlikely to have much trouble in the general election unless the primary becomes incredibly nasty. Republicans have little bench in the Bay State, but might try to run someone credible if the primary, which is among the nation’s latest, looks likely to leave serious scars. LG Karyn Polito (R) would likely be the biggest name on the bench, but is probably unlikely to risk dimming her star ahead of a gubernatorial run in 2022 or 2026. More likely options could include ex-State Reps. Keiko Orrall (R) and Geoff Diehl (R), who lost statewide bids for Treasurer and Senate respectively last year, Taunton Mayor Shauna O’Connell (R), or Romney aide and 2018 Senate candidate Beth Lindstrom (R). However, thanks to Massachusetts’ deep-blue lean, any Republican is likely to face a prohibitively uphill battle against Markey or Kennedy.

24. Wyoming Safe R (24)

Incumbent Sen. Mike Enzi (R) has decided not to seek a fifth term, and somewhat surprisingly, Rep. Liz Cheney (R) has decided not to jump into the race to succeed him, preferring instead to continue on her rapid rise through the House GOP leadership. Thus, it seems likely that Cheney’s predecessor, ex-Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R), will be the new front-runner for the seat. Lummis’s first fundraising quarter was somewhat underwhelming though as Cheney had frozen a lot of the donor base, which could leave an opening for another candidate. Other potential candidates who could enter the race could include investor and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Foster Friess (R), SoS Ed Buchanan (R), Superintendent Jillian Balow (R), Treasurer Curt Meier (R), 2018 Senate candidate and businessman David Dodson (R), and many others, though thus far no major Republican but Lummis has made concrete moves toward a bid. Democrats have no real bench in Wyoming, though 2018 nominee and school board member Gary Trauner (D) somewhat overperformed the generic D baseline and might be a credible choice. Ex-State Reps. Mary Throne (D) and James Byrd (D), who lost runs for Governor and SoS in 2018, could also be potential contenders. As Wyoming remains the nation’s reddest state, Lummis or any other Republican should remain a prohibitive favorite barring something seriously unexpected.

25. West Virginia Safe R (31)

Democrats have notched a surprisingly credible recruit to take on Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) when ex-State Sen. Richard Ojeda (D) entered the race this month. Ojeda is an interesting figure: a decorated veteran who was invited as a guest to the State of the Union, he was elected to a historically-D but now deep-red Coalfields legislative seat in spite of being brutally attacked the day before his first election. Ojeda then ran for the House in 2018 and captured national Dem imagination due to his blunt-talking style and military background; however, he lost due to the deep-red nature of his seat. He then resigned from the legislature to launch a beyond-quixotic Presidential run, dropping that after just a matter of weeks. Ojeda will likely be the strong favorite in the Dem primary over left-wing 2018 candidate Paula-Jean Swearengin (D), but is likely to meet a tough challenge in the general. For her part, Capito has long been popular in the state that has abruptly shifted over the last decade from Democratic-leaning to blood-red in downballot contests, and could lay a quite reasonable claim to the title of her state’s most popular pol. The relatively establishment-leaning Capito does have a potentially serious primary challenger waiting in the wings in religious conservative lobbyist Allen Whitt (R), who is hitting her from the right on cultural and second-amendment issues. However, Capito’s strong personal brand seems likely to leave her as the significant favorite in the primary. Ojeda is a credible challenger who may be able to make the race competitive if lightning strikes or Capito loses the primary. However, the deep-red lean of the state still leads us to mark Republicans as prohibitive favorites to hold the seat for now.

26. Delaware Safe D (23)

Sen. Chris Coons (D) looks likely to coast to a second full term in the blue state that loves its unexciting moderate-liberal Dem pols. No major Democrats have shown interest in a primary challenge, while Republicans have essentially no bench in the state. The only solid name on the GOP’s bench, ex-State Treasurer Ken Simpler (R), was surprisingly defeated in 2018 and would be unlikely to risk a second straight loss on such an uphill bid. 2018 nominee and ex-Sussex County commissioner Rob Arlett (R) could potentially try for a second Senate bid. Delaware is only a light to medium blue, and the summer filing deadline (among the nation’s latest) leaves the GOP some time for a serious challenger to yet emerge, so we are keeping this race somewhat higher in the Safe category. However, overall Coons looks likely to head to an easy re-election win.

27. Oregon Safe D (25)

Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) was just about the only Democrat considering a Presidential run this year who did not ultimately jump into the clown car, as he got a downright chilly reception from his fellow Oregon Democrats when he sought to adjust the state’s ballot laws to allow him to run for both re-election and the Presidency. Merkley is thus running for a third term. The upscale progressive is a good fit for his state, and he seems unlikely to draw a particularly serious primary or general election challenge. Oregon has proven a very tough nut to crack for Republicans, as they have come close several times but been unable to seal the deal. Potential credible rivals to Merkley on the Oregon GOP’s thin bench could include 2016 gubernatorial nominee Bud Pierce (R) and 1998 gubernatorial nominee Bill Sizemore (R), though no major Republicans have made active moves toward the race. For now, with Merkley running for re-election, we leave this race deep within the Safe category, though Oregon’s relatively light blue lean leads us to place this seat not-quite-as-far down the list as the incumbents heading to walkover re-election wins in deep-red and deep-blue states.

28. Oklahoma Safe R (30)

Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) is the last remaining Senator seriously on retirement watch this year. Inhofe will be 86 in 2020, but his intentions on seeking a fifth full term still remain something of a black box. He has openly discussed retirement, a usual dead-giveaway that a Senator is on the outs, but also has raised money for a new campaign. Though Inhofe has shown some desire to stay in office and would likely face little trouble were he to run again in one of America’s most conservative states, he could still pull a late exit. Should Inhofe retire, the floodgates could open for a crowded GOP primary. Potential candidates could include Reps. Tom Cole (R), Markwayne Mullin (R), and Kevin Hern (R), ex-Rep. and NASA official Jim Bridenstine (R), LG Matt Pinnell (R), AG Mike Hunter (R), OKC Mayor David Holt (R), ex-LG Todd Lamb (R), ex-OKC Mayor Mick Cornett (R), and many others. Democrats have a thin bench, but might have an ace in the hole for an open seat. Rep. Kendra Horn (D), one of 2018’s biggest upset winners, could very well take the leap to a statewide bid if the seat is open, as she will likely face a tough race for re-election in a red district (though not as red as the state) that will be radically redrawn in 2022 if she wins. Forgoing that race for a tougher statewide run, but with it a potential 6-year term if lightning strikes, might be an intriguing option. State Rep. Emily Virgin (D), ex-State Sen. Anastasia Pittman (D), and ex-State Rep. Scott Inman (D) could be potential backup D choices, but would likely be much weaker than Horn. However, Oklahoma remains an inelastic, deeply conservative state, and thus Inhofe or any other Republican will start out as a very strong favorite.

29. South Dakota Safe R (28)

Sen. Mike Rounds (R) is seeking a second term in one of the nation’s reddest states. Rounds has a long history as a popular Governor and has been a mainstream conservative in the Senate. However, he somewhat surprisingly drew a notable primary challenger in State Rep. Scyller Borglum (R), who is taking him on from a more populist direction. Borglum, who has only served one term in the legislature, seems unlikely to be a major threat to Rounds barring something unexpected. Democrats do have a credible candidate in ex-State Sen. Dan Ahlers (D), but Ahlers is unlikely to be a major threat to Rounds’s incumbency against the deep-red terrain of the state. Should Borglum’s challenge gain more traction, there is a chance the race may become more interesting. But for now, Rounds looks likely to be a very strong favorite for a second term.

30. Nebraska Safe R (27)

Sen. Ben Sasse (R) has emerged as one of Trump’s more fervent critics from the right, which has left him beloved by the conservative pundit class, but that Trump skepticism raised some questions about Sasse’s political footing in his Trump-friendly state. Sasse has not fallen into the Flake trap of repeating Dem talking points and waffling on core GOP policy priorities, and received Trump’s endorsement earlier this year. He has also not wavered on impeachment, which is likely to earn him points among Trumpists. That said, there is still the chance that his lukewarm to cool stance toward the President personally could open him up to a serious primary challenge. While an established pol is unlikely to take on Sasse, an outsider may yet see an opportunity to take the risk of stepping up to challenge Sasse on a more Trumpophilic platform. Though Nebraska is deep-red, there might be a slight chance for Democrats to make the race competitive if Sasse is toppled by a subpar primary challenger. The lone candidate in the race already is Some Dude-ish 2018 candidate and businessman Chris Janicek (D), but ex-Lincoln Mayor Chris Beutler (D), 2018 nominee and Lincoln councilwoman Jane Raybould (D), and ex-State Sens. Bob Krist (D) and Heath Mello (D) could all be realistic options for Dems if Sasse seems more vulnerable. However, with only about a month before the filing deadline, no serious Sasse challenger has emerged from either side. Therefore, Sasse’s seat continues a steady move down the list to join the ranks of the absolute Safest senators.

31. Illinois Safe D (29)

Sen. Dick Durbin (D) is seeking seek a fifth term, and the Senate’s number two Dem is unlikely to face a serious fight in his blue state. Republicans are unlikely to make a serious play for the seat, but do have a somewhat credible candidate in ex-Lake County Sheriff Mark Curran (R). Curran is a moderate former Democrat who served a decade countywide in the large, Dem leaning suburban county before losing re-election by a tiny margin amid the 2018 wave. One potential wrinkle in this race is that it is not totally out of the question that Durbin could withdraw after the primary in order to anoint a hand-picked successor. In the extremely unlikely event such shenanigans happen, Curran could potentially be a credible contender; however, assuming he follows through on his re-election run, the deep-blue lean of the state means that Durbin should be a prohibitive favorite.

32. Idaho Safe R (32)

Sen. Jim Risch (R) has committed to seeking a third term, though he was high on retirement lists at age 77. As a mainstream conservative and one of the few candidates who can bridge the divide between the state’s establishment and antiestablishment conservatives, Risch should be in strong position in his deep-red state. Democrats have little bench in the Gem State; there are a pair of Some Dudes in the race, farmer Travis Oller (D) and businesswoman Nancy Harris (D). One of the relatively biggest names on the state’s utterly anemic Dem bench, ex-State Rep. and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Paulette Jordan (D), has indicated some openness to a bid, but is generally thought unlikely to actually pull the trigger. Even if Jordan did run, she would face extremely uphill odds against an inoffensive incumbent in one of the nation’s reddest states.

33. Louisiana Safe R (33)

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) is likely to be in good position in his deep-red state as he seeks a second term. Cassidy is an inoffensive mainstream conservative and has so far not seemed likely to draw a serious challenge from either Democrats or Republicans, though there is a slight chance that could change before the last-in-the-nation filing deadline in July. Democrats have a decent bench in the Pelican State, though it’s unclear if any of their big names would want to risk the uphill race. Potential credible contenders could include ex-New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu (D), who may see taking one for the team in a tough Senate race as a route to an administration job in 2021, or Shreveport Mayor Adrian Perkins (D). However, no big-name Dem seems likely to run here, and any would face uphill odds if they pulled the trigger. Cassidy should start out as the prohibitive favorite for re-election in the deep red state.

34. Rhode Island Safe D (35)

Rhode Island’s Jack Reed (D) is sitting in one of the bluest states (though the Staten Island Test-passing demographics might mean GOP fortunes could improve in a generation) and has maintained an impressive level of (wholly unnecessary) crossover support from the state’s GOP minority. Rhode Island’s filing deadline is among the nation’s latest, so Reed could yet make a late retirement after four terms, but that seems unlikely; he will be 71 in 2020 and is rumored to have turned down multiple cabinet offers under Obama (including SecDef) because he wanted a longer Senate career. Republicans have no real bench in the Ocean State, and have not had any serious candidates declare interest in taking on Reed. Thus, the incumbent is extremely likely to sail to a walkover re-election win against token opposition.

35. Arkansas Safe R (34)

Incumbent Tom Cotton’s (R) bid for a second term, which was already a walkover, got even easier immediately after the filing deadline when his little-known sacrificial lamb Democratic opponent dropped out of the race, and Democrats interpreted state law as not giving them the opportunity to replace him. Therefore, Cotton will not face any major party opposition for a second term – interestingly for a seat that Republicans themselves didn’t contest just 12 years ago. Cotton’s only rivals are an unknown Libertarian and left-wing Independent who are certain to not pose any threat to his re-election. Thus, this seat now takes over as the #35 safest Senate seat of all.