I have been as puzzled and frustrated as any Democrat by Donald Trump’s Teflon qualities in the face of what seems self-evident: His presidency is a massive failure, and right now it’s a deadly one.

But that doesn’t mean he’s on a glide path to reelection. Nor does it translate into, “Woe is us! Where is Joe Biden? Why doesn’t he DO something? He needs a relaunch! A reset! A dramatic move that catapults him into the public eye! Every day!”

No.

He doesn’t.

He needs to keep on doing what he’s doing: raising money, releasing ads, doing local and national TV interviews, critiquing Trump, planning for vice presidential and Cabinet picks, sharing his policy thinking as it develops. And he needs to keep on being Joe Biden.

That last might be most important of all. Democratic primary voters made clear weeks ago that they want stability, experience and familiarity. Now, fully immersed in a pandemic that has upended our lives, psyches, economy and stature as a world power, add restoration.

And, after weeks of Trump starring in his own daily "Groundhog Day" remake, displaying his insatiable need to make everything about him, we could also use a president who doesn’t need that. Who might actually disappear from view for a day or two or three at a time, and do his job.

Like Biden is doing now.

Reality is Biden's ace in the hole

It is easy to have anxiety attacks about polling, but out of nearly four dozen national polls this year in the Real Clear Politics polling average, Biden loses to Trump in one, ties him in two and beats him in all the rest. As for battleground states, Biden is leading in most of them as well.

Believe your own eyes: Trump’s daily coronavirus performance art has worked so well for Biden that the president left without taking questions Friday and held no briefing on Saturday or Sunday. The national media glare is a better disinfectant than sunlight (not, by the way, a COVID-19 cure) when it comes to exposing the pettiness, contradictions and terrifying ignorance of America’s commander in chief.

Misjudging his country:Chaotic coronavirus presidency is historically divisive and, for some, fatal

Yes, it’s incomprehensible that Biden is ahead by only a handful of percentage points in some state and national polls, and that there is an outside chance Trump could win another term. But Biden has an ace in the hole: reality. It’s empirical. It can’t be spun.

Not for nothing is the economy considered a reliable indicator of election odds in most years. You either have a job or you don’t. You can afford your medical bills or rent or mortgage or retirement, or you can’t. You’re evicted, or bankrupt, or your farm goes under, or not. You’re either satisfied with the president’s economic leadership, or you’re not.

The economy is not the only way reality intrudes on politics. In recent history, as more gay people revealed who they are, more people realized they know gay people and support for same-sex marriage grew.

Guns are another example. The past few years saw a rise in gun deaths and a series of mass shootings that gripped the nation. Nearly 4 in 10 people in a February 2019 poll said they or someone they knew had experienced gun violence. There’s now a broad consensus on the need for expanded background checks and majority support for other restrictions that Trump and his party are blocking.

It doesn’t end there. Some Americans have been affected, and maybe even ruined, by Trump’s trade war with China. Millions have health insurance through the Affordable Care Act that Trump is trying to kill. Hundreds of thousands brought here illegally as children are in limbo over their immigration status, thanks to Trump. All of these people have friends, families and colleagues.

Coronavirus impact can't be spun

And now, the coronavirus chapter. Last week, the progressive firm Navigator Research found that 30% of Americans knew someone infected with the virus. How high is that number now? How high will it go? How many more people already know health care workers and other first responders and worry about their safety? How many have unemployed friends and relatives, or have lost their own jobs?

And, a key question, how many will rightly blame Trump for making this health and economic crisis far worse than it had to be? For Biden, probably enough.

About two-thirds in a Pew Research Center poll this month said Trump was too slow to take major steps to address the coronavirus threat, and are worried that states will lift restrictions too quickly. Nearly three-quarters in the poll said the worst was yet to come.

And in a CBS News poll released Thursday, asked how many deaths would constitute a successful effort to contain the virus, more than half (54%) said there had already been too many or that less than 50,000 was their benchmark. U.S. deaths crossed that line a day later.

Not ready for prime time:Trump's briefings are too dangerous for news media to show live

A competent government is one you don’t necessarily notice or even appreciate. The pandemic that never gets off the ground. The election that doesn’t jeopardize your health or life. The respect for institutions that keep us safe and connected (like NATO and the post office). A president who is calm and rational in a crisis, not a social media agitator or a kibitzer floating dangerous nonsense at his own briefings.

When Biden talks of making voting safe and convenient, of relying on science and preparing for pandemics, of the institutional changes that may be possible given the inequities the coronavirus has spotlighted and the shadow it casts over young people’s futures, it is possible to imagine once again a country that follows the facts, leads the world and cares about its people.

Jill Lawrence is the commentary editor of USA TODAY and author of "The Art of the Political Deal: How Congress Beat the Odds and Broke Through Gridlock." Follow her on Twitter: @JillDLawrence