Guy Verhofstadt points out that sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 following its annexation of Crimea and aggression in Eastern Ukraine, will expire next month. This inspired Putin to host the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, which takes place this week. Verhofstadt is enraged that Italy's prime minister Matteo Renzi and president of the European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker have accepted Putin’s invition, providing the Kremlin with an opportunity to cozy up to Europe, and "with a propaganda coup ahead of the parliamentary elections" later this year. While some EU leaders have contemplated easing sanctions, the author says, Angela Merkel is the only, who is willing to remain tough on Putin.

What worries the author is the fact that European members of NATO have failed "to fulfill their defense-spending commitments" in recent years, with an average spending below the "promised level of 2% of GDP" or even much less. Having Europe unable to "uphold its side of the collective defense bargain," and "more important" its failure "to build up a genuine European defense community," the US has been bearing a huge share of the burden. In March Obama told Jeff Goldberg that America's allies in Europe were "free riders." Two weeks later this rhetoric has lent "credence to Trump’s reckless claims" about the Europeans "exploiting an 'outdated' alliance at the expense of American taxpayers."

The author suggests that the EU would need to have a "broader" strategy" to "demonstrate its strategic value to the US," by reining in "the Kremlin’s provocative behavior." It has "failed to exercise the soft-power options" at its disposal to resist Putin's aggression in Ukraine. The problem is that the "overly assertive Kremlin" sees the modern Ukraine as an illegitimate nation, and will always seek to maintain dominance over its former satellite state. With the annexation of Crimea, Russia had violated international law. Apart from losing "full control of its borders," Ukraine is engulfed by a frozen conflict in eastern Ukraine. In the absence of a "reliable truce, it will remain politically unstable in the years to come, dashing Ukrainians' hope to join the EU and NATO.

At the recent G7 summit in Japan, leaders had "pledged to prolong the sanctions until both the 2014 and 2015 Minsk agreements are fully respected." However in the EU, there is no consensus on "stronger measures aimed at Putin and his cronies, "with diplomats from Hungary, Cyprus, Italy, and others softening their stance toward Russia." Indeed, the Kremlin has been successful in undermining mainstream liberal values in Europe by supporting ultra-right parties. Its "lobbying efforts seem to be having an impact."

The author urges Juncker and other EU leaders to "place EU priorities at the forefront" - "the preservation of Europe’s post-Cold War political and security architecture, the protection of the territorial integrity of European countries, and respect for the shared norms embodied by institutions like the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the Council of Europe. As long as Putin refuses to "support these priorities," there will be no "loosening of /existing economic/ sanctions."

When it comes to Ukraine, emotions run high in Russia. There is little hope that the Minsk agreement be "implemented fully." As long as Putin remains in power, there may not be a "full withdrawal of Russian forces and military equipment from Ukrainian territory, and restoration to Ukraine’s government of complete control over its border with Russia." Ukraine is too weak, and the EU too preoccupied with its crises to deal with Moscow's rogue behaviour. A Trump presidency might even weaken Europe further more, and there is no guarantee whether Congress would still uphold "America's Magnitsky Act, which targets Russian officials responsible for gross human-rights violations."