What does Glen Johnson mean to Liverpool?

Glen Johnson is generally known for his offensive prowess, but he is highly disregarded when it comes to defense because of his knack for getting so far forward when Liverpool hold possession in the final third.

With this year being rough on Liverpool, especially in the final third, what does it mean for the defense that has generally been outstanding? Also, who really should start at right back? Should it be Glen Johnson, the player who seems to be a canon when sprinting off into the limelight of the opponents 18 yard box, or Martin Kelly who bossed Ryan Giggs around at Anfield in the FA Cup?

For the hell of it, I have compiled some statistics based on the teams performance with and without Glen Johnson in the line up.

Johnson has started 17 matches in the league this year for Liverpool. The first block of numbers is for Liverpool’s goals against this year in the league. Liverpool have allowed 31 goals this year, third in the league.

In Johnson’s 17 matches, Liverpool have allowed only 14 goals, which lies at .824 gpg against. In the 13 matches Johnson didn’t start, Liverpool allowed 17 goals. That means that Liverpool allow about a half a goal more when Johnson doesn’t play. This goes a long way to debunk the myth that Johnson can’t play defense.

The second block shows how many goals Liverpool has scored this year with Johnson in and out of the starting XI. This year, Liverpool have scored 36 goals in the league. Of those 36, Johnson has been in the squad for half of them in his 17 starts. The other 18 came when Flanagan, Carragher, Kelly or Skrtel were playing at right back.

Liverpool’s goals per game with Johnson is 1.059, and without, 1.385. This is almost .3 goals per game difference. Not as substantial as .5 goals per game against, but still a noticeable difference in the long run. The problem is, that Suarez’s suspension occurred during Johnson’s 17 straight league games which could have skewed the statistics.

These two numbers seem small, but over the course of a 38 game season it adds up. If we use the averages of goals against and for per game, then we can find out Liverpool’s ideal goal differential.

Over the course of a season, if Johnson’s goals per game and goals against per game stay consistent, we can expect to score approximately 40 goals and let in 31 for a goal difference of nine, this means Liverpool will score only four goals in the next eight games, which even I like to think is unlikely.

When Johnson isn’t in the line up, Liverpool would score approximately 52 goals over the season, but let in 49 for a goal differential of three. Liverpool have a lot of work to go to score that many goals, along with letting that many in.

These numbers aren’t perfect since they draw from a small sample size, but you can see that Liverpool should be better off if Johnson is in the line up.

When it comes down to the important things, it’s all down to points anyways, right?

Well here are the numbers. In the 13 matches Johnson hasn’t started, Liverpool have 17 points for 1.308 points per game. In the 17 matches Johnson has started, Liverpool have 25 points, or 1.471 points per game. These two numbers are almost too close to really say there is much of a difference, since they both draw from a small sample size. But over a season, Liverpool would earn approximately 50 points without Johnson and 56 with him. That would mean Liverpool need eight to 14 points respectively to equal the total set by my model.

In conclusion, Liverpool seem better off when they have Glen Johnson in the starting XI. They allow .5 goals per game less and almost .2 points per game more with him in the line up. It seems they sacrifice goals though, earning .3 goals per game less than they would if Johnson didn’t start. Over the span of a 38 games, it equals more substantial numbers. Liverpool would ideally end up with 56 points and a goal differential of nine with Johnson in the line up. Without Johnson, Liverpool would ideally earn 50 points and a goal difference of three goals.

If Liverpool continue on this pace they would end up in 6th (last years table) place with 56 points with Johnson (two fewer points than they ended with last year). Without Johnson, Liverpool would be sitting in 7th behind Everton (again, last years table).

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