There could be trouble in the upper house for Berejiklian government but results won’t be known for two weeks

A wide range of minor parties look set to win seats in the New South Wales upper house after last Saturday’s election, threatening to give the Coalition a lot more trouble with a bigger and more diverse crossbench in its next term. Counting will take two more weeks, with many unknowns still to be resolved.

The Coalition held 20 of the 42 seats in the upper house in the last parliament, allowing it to pass legislation usually with the support of the two members of Fred Nile’s Christian Democratic party (CDP). The Greens had five seats, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers two and Animal Justice one.

It was inevitable that the Coalition would lose ground in 2019, defending 11 seats with a vote sufficient to elect only up to eight or nine members.

The first round of counting identified only above-the-line votes for seven parties – the six that previously held seats, plus One Nation. Counting of all the other votes is now under way, with about 10% of the statewide vote counted. This is not a random sample, with some electorates significantly overrepresented.

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There are some things we know about how parties are performing.

The Coalition has definitely won seven seats, and probably an eighth. That would mean a net loss of three. Labor has won six seats (up from five) and is in the hunt for a seventh. The Greens have won two seats, and the Shooters one. Neither party appears to have a chance at gaining another seat. Mark Latham’s One Nation ticket has won at least one seat, with a chance of a second.

That leaves three seats still in play.

We have less information about other parties, but the race for the final three seats looks set to be between Animal Justice, Keep Sydney Open, Sustainable Australia, the seventh Labor candidate, the second One Nation candidate, Christian Democratic Party MLC Paul Green and the former federal Liberal Democrat senator David Leyonhjelm.

The independent MLC Jeremy Buckingham, formerly of the Greens, appears to have fallen far short of retaining his seat.

Preferences may well be crucial to deciding the final seats, even if a relatively small proportion of voters have chosen to mark them. The centre-left parties have diligently preferenced each other, while the right-wing parties are largely going it alone.

Animal Justice received third preferences from Labor, the Greens, Keep Sydney Open and Sustainable Australia, which should give them an edge in a close result.

So far Labor, the Greens and Animal Justice can count on 18 upper house seats between them. The Coalition, Christian Democrats and One Nation hold 19, with the Shooters holding two. So the winners of the final three seats could make a big difference to the balance of power.

Whatever happens, life will get more difficult for the government as it tries to pass legislation through the upper house. Only in the best-case scenario for the Coalition, where the Liberal Democrats, Christian Democrats and One Nation all won seats, would they be able to do without the votes of the Shooters, an interesting dynamic following the conflict between the Shooters and the Nationals in the last term.

The final preference distribution will be on 12 April.

This article was amended on 29 March 2019 to correct the number of seats won by the Coalition, Christian Democrats and One Nation from 18 to 19.



