2016 Tour Down Under Stage 4 Preview

THE ROUTE

A terrible day for GC favourites, crosswinds and a difficult but not decisive last climb mean tension, nervousness and possibly crashes as well if the forecast rain comes to fruition. Exposed roads along the coast from Goolwa will provide the bordures, while the Crow’s Nest Road climb and lumpy approach to the finish make for a day fraught with danger for the GC men, and just right for an opportunist out of the hunt for the overall

THE FAVOURITES

As this is a totally different route to previous finishes into Victor, past results can be thrown out the window. As a general rule we can expect the riders who are good on the flats and who did well in Sterling to do well here, but really this should be taken as an I have no idea day, so I don’t want to talk too much about individual riders. The break also has a strong chance today, probably the strongest of the Tour.

Taken as individuals I would actually call Daryl Impey (OGE) the favourite today, but he will be most likely protecting Simon Gerrans, who has a small chance of repeating yesterday’s win. Reijnen (Trek) and Lobato (Movistar) are two more GC non-contenders who could strike out on a finish.

Steele Von Hoff (UniSA) has a chance as his team’s lead rider, as do Renshaw (Dimension Data) and Manuele Boaro (Tinkoff), although the latter may also be called in to protect his teams’ unheralded GC guy, Jay McCarthy.

Candidates for breakaway victory include Adam Hansen (Lotto), Ryder Hesjedal (Trek), Thomas De Gendt (Lotto), Valgren (Tinkoff), Riblon (AG2E) and a gaggle of others.

***** -

**** -

*** Reijnen, Lobato, The Break

** Gerrans

* Impey, Von Hoff, Renshaw, Hansen

THE INTRIGUE

Will it ran and will the wind pick up? Either eventuality is possible given the forecast, and if both happen it will be a wild race unlike most other races considering there will still be a great deal of heat weighing down upon riders. Given the descent after the KOM, it is very possible and attack from some down on GC will stick on the climb or from far beforehand. No one really knows what will happen.

ONWARDS

While time gaps may not be made, superfluous efforts today will be paid for on Willunga Hill tomorrow. Having to work to hard for themselves will hurt the riders with weaker teams. Alternatively the day could be very easy for the majority and as such they will be favoured with the day of recuperation.

Classics men will look to prove their worth today, with most D.S. sure to look for those who can protect a hilly or mountain specialist in this sort of terrain and these sort of conditions. Great work from Stannard in protecting Henao, for example, could earn him one or two GT spots as all have difficult flat stages.