Berejiklian's leadership is safe as long as she wants the job. Winning a historic third term for the Coalition in March last year cemented it and her handling of the bushfires further reinforced it. Loading But Constance's leadership chances have been given an enormous boost, not by his making but through his vulnerability and brutal honesty. He has cried on national TV, he has attacked the Prime Minister for his inability to read the mood, and he has criticised some of the biggest charities for being too slow in handing out donations. And once he was on a roll, Constance didn't stop. Often looking exhausted and broken, he fronted TV cameras to tearfully talk about the mental health crisis his scorched electorate faces. As one senior minister put it: "You can't confect this sort of tragedy but, when it happens, you don't look a gift-horse in the mouth."

Leading right-winger and NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet is still heir apparent to replace Berejiklian, with a deal cooked up with climate change warrior Matt Kean to be his deputy in return for Kean delivering critical votes from his dominant moderate faction. But the sands are shifting and Constance is no longer an outside chance. Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video Constance's progressive colleagues, even those usually quick to criticise him, are reluctant to point out that he has stayed well away from the climate change debate throughout the bushfire crisis. For now, they are prepared to let that glaring omission pass. He has a strong track record on social issues, from his time as disability minister and his work behind the scenes last year to push through the divisive abortion decriminalisation bill. But Constance's moderate colleagues, whose full support he will need if he is to get to the top, describe him as "almost as brown as the Nationals" when it comes to the environment. They will expect more decisiveness from him on climate change if he wants to be premier.

Loading His chance to lead has previously been seen as a pipe dream because he has had few close friends in the party room (aside from long-time allies such as ministers Stuart Ayres and Gareth Ward). He has also been an outsider in the powerful moderate faction. But this summer has changed that. A long-time Liberal colleague put it this way: "Andrew Constance has the capacity to surge at the right time. He has continually defied gravity." The colleague says he "defied gravity to win the Young Liberal presidency when no one thought he could, he won his preselection when no one thought he could, and then he won his seat when no one thought he could. Andrew Constance is the last person you want to underestimate." Berejiklian's political future remains firmly in her hands, but when that changes, Constance's ability to surge at the right time could see him rise to be the next Liberal premier.