Guardian/ICM poll shows nearly as many of its leave voters back second referendum as oppose it

Labour voters are becoming increasingly receptive to reconsidering Brexit, according to a poll that shows even many leave supporters are growing more comfortable with the idea of a second referendum.

The findings of the Guardian/ICM survey may throw into sharp relief the continuing divide among Labour MPs over whether to support the government’s Brexit strategy or call for a wider rethink of the decision to depart the EU.



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Nearly as many Labour leavers are now in favour of a second referendum (39%) as are against it (43%), and a second referendum would attract overwhelming support from the majority of Labour voters who favour remaining in the EU.

Overall, 65% of Labour backers want the public to have the final say on leaving once negotiations are complete, compared with 19% who oppose the idea.

Support for giving the country a final say on Brexit is stronger in Labour-held marginals than in any other type of seat, despite fears that these constituencies could have been vulnerable if the party appeared to question the 2016 EU referendum result.

The poll shows 50% of voters in narrowly held Labour seats want a second referendum, compared with 30% who do not want to reopen the question. In Conservative marginals, which would be on Labour’s target list at the next election, there is modest overall support in favour of the idea.

While only a small proportion said they would make a different choice if asked again about Brexit, Labour voters are three times more likely to have changed their mind than Tories, with 9% of Labour leavers saying they now favour remaining in the EU.

Labour has been struggling since the referendum with how to handle the consequences of Brexit without alienating its historical supporters in the north of England and Midlands – who generally favour leaving – or repelling those in the south who flocked to the party at the previous election in protest over the government’s Brexit policy.

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There remains a deep national divide that presents a challenge to all major parties, but it appears that a more sceptical Labour position on leaving the EU may yet allow it to hold on to its existing seats while simultaneously appealing to disaffected Tory remainers.

Alex Turk, a senior research executive at ICM, said: “There are different implications for the two main Westminster parties.

“The pro-remain lead in Labour held seats has shown substantial growth [since the referendum]. In safe Labour seats, the pro-remain lead has doubled from four percentage points to eight percentage points, while in marginal Labour seats, the remain lead has tripled from three percentage points to nine percentage points.”

ICM said the larger than usual size of the poll, with a representative sample of more than 5,000 people, allows for more detailed analysis of the relative impact of Brexit for the first time.

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Overall, the poll shows less than one-third of those planning to vote Labour at the next election wanted to leave the EU in 2016, compared with 59% who backed remain. Tories, in contrast, are becoming more determined to leave the EU, with 15% of its remain-supporting voters now saying they would vote leave if asked again.

Whatever happens on Brexit, the poll suggests the parties remain neck and neck. Overall, the latest ICM survey shows Conservative support up one percentage point from its previous poll, now matching Labour on 41%. The Liberal Democrats are on 7%, Ukip is on 4%, and the Greens and the SNP are on 3% each.