Ahead of a crucial council debate that starts Wednesday, Mayor John Tory (open John Tory's policard) and those who support a “hybrid” option for the east Gardiner have cautioned that removing that part of the expressway and replacing it with an eight-lane boulevard could increase travel times by as much as 10 minutes.

But that oft-cited delay does not reflect the plans actually being considered by council.

Tory repeated the claim without qualification at a speech to the Empire Club of Canada on Monday. It was also featured in a letter to councillors sent Monday from a pro-hybrid coalition.

The 10-minute figure is not Tory’s invention. It stems from a University of Toronto study commissioned by the pro-hybrid group that includes CAA South Central Ontario — which has been actively lobbying councillors.

That study, released last month, looked at two possible “remove” options — one that is pedestrian-friendly and one more geared toward vehicular traffic.

But neither is consistent with what’s before council.

The study’s “pedestrian oriented” model presents the 10-minute delay as a worst-case scenario — an extra delay if travelling on the Gardiner from Park Lawn Rd. in the west end to the east end at peak hours. The study shows the average increase in network travel time is actually two minutes.

Civil engineering professor Baher Abdulhai explained that authors of the U of T study created their own scenarios to add to the growing discussion on the Gardiner. The 10-minute delay was not given any special prominence in the report. He said he’s not aware of the specific data or configurations being considered by the city — nor was that factored into the study.

“The options that I’m showing you are the only options that we studied,” he said.

The main difference is that the study’s “pedestrian oriented” model assumed enough time for pedestrians to cross the boulevard in one go.

The second scenario — the “traffic oriented” option — assumed a two-stage crossing, where pedestrians would only have time to get to the median before the light changed. In that case, delays were not expected to be significant, Abdulhai said. The worst-case delay was just 4.5 minutes.

The city, meanwhile, has put forward an “optimized” remove option — one that is before council this week. On average, that option would cause just a 52-second increase in travel time.

John Mende, the city’s transportation services director for Scarborough, said the timings were adjusted so the option now before council would allow just two-thirds of pedestrians to make it across the boulevard in one go. It allows for both one-stage and two-stage crossing — much like the present crosswalks on University Ave.

“We’re trying to improve the travel times east-west and minimize the delays,” Mende said. “That’s why we said, maybe we can reduce the north-south green time, which requires some more pedestrians to stop halfway.”

He said having only one-stage crossings is ideal for pedestrians, as the U of T model allows, but that’s probably not realistic.

“They’re just measuring something different than what we feel is the appropriate measure to indicate the impacts of the remove option,” Mende said.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

Tory said Monday that, regardless of which numbers are cited, there is always a negative impact. “The bottom line is this — not one estimate by anyone has said that commute times won’t be increased, and I don't accept that we're going to increase commute times.”

Ultimately it’s up to council to decide whether the delay is worth the cost.

Read more about: