Expected Points Added on 4th Down

In an attempt to better inform the XFL team and league personnel and partners on fourth-down decision-making, Optimum Scouting built a decision-making model based on NFL expected points added (EPA) over the last decade.

This model takes into account the value of (a) converted fourth down, (b) alternative values of punts or field goals, and (c) risk of attempting fourth downs based on NFL averages.

Below is a chart that lists the optimum fourth-down option (between “Go For It”, “Punt” and “FG”) relative to distance and field position, based on our projections: