According to current projections, China's population will finally peak in 2030 with a shrinking labor force and an over-65 population of 240 million. Only Japan has aged faster than China.

China has another very serious demographic problem due to sex-selective abortion and its one-child policy, resulting in a ratio of 120 boys for every 100 girls. It's estimated that the percentage of men in their late 30's who have never married will quintuple by 2030, and this large number of unmarried young men will have a detrimental impact on population growth.

By 2026, both India and China are estimated to have 1.46 billion residents each, but India will start to take 1st place with a growth continuing until 2060, while China's population is expected to decline after 2030.

China Population Growth

The size of China's population has long been a hot political issue in China. After rapid population growth in the middle of the 20th century, the Chinese government sought to limit population growth by introducing the famous "one-child policy."

The scheme, which rewarded couples that agreed to have just one child with cash bonuses and better access to housing, proved so successful that the birth rate of 1.4 children per woman fell below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. As a result, experts are now concerned that China’s low birth rate, combined with its aging population, will damage its future economic development.

The one-child policy was met with a great deal of resistance, particularly in rural areas. Families who breach this policy tend to lie on census polls, so the true population of China may be a bit skewed. This means that Chinese population statistics have become less reliable since the policy began in the 1970s. The policy was ended by the Chinese government in 2016.

Much of China’s economic growth has been attributed to its abundant and cheap workforce, combined with its low social costs. However, with the number of young Chinese falling and the number of elderly Chinese increasing, it is not certain whether China’s economy can continue to grow at the same rapid rate.

China also has an abnormal ratio of male to female births. Whereas in most countries more girls are born than boys, in China the reverse is true. Many suspect that this is because of a preference for boys among Chinese families.

In the year 2010, China took up its most recent official census efforts. The country hired approximately ten million workers to help manage the enormous task of discovering the statistics of over one billion residents. The growth from 2000 to 2010 was roughly 5.8% over the decade.

China Population Projections

China's has slowed significantly since the implementation of the one-child policy, and that slowing is projected to continue. The population is predicted to grow at increasingly slower rates until 2030, at which point the population should actually begin to decrease.