To my knowledge, exactly zero national media members predicted that the Philadelphia Eagles would win Super Bowl LII. That list includes me; I suggested that they were extremely likely to improve and even said that they would go from worst to first in the NFC East on my podcast, but I didn't think they would win the championship at any moment until Brandon Graham strip-sacked Tom Brady with 2 minutes, 16 seconds to go in the fourth quarter in the game.

Does that mean every piece of preseason information you've read is worthless? Of course not. At the same time, though, making preseason predictions limits realistic fans and analysts alike to one of a few teams. The Eagles had a 1.9 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl before last season, according to the Bovada sportsbook, which was tied for 16th-most likely. They had a chance, but nobody in their right mind would have said they were the most likely candidate to win a Super Bowl.

The vast majority of prediction columns are pegging the most likely candidate to win an award or advance to a certain level. This column is different. The goal here is to find the most likely path for each candidate. In other words, figuring out what would have to happen for each of the league's 32 teams to win a Super Bowl if everything (or just about everything) goes right for them.

I'll go through the teams from 32-1 in order of their expected Super Bowl chances, according to ESPN's Football Power Index. Each team's scenario happens in its own universe, of course, since only one team can win the Super Bowl. Nothing is impossible in a world in which Leicester City won the Premier League title as 5,000-1 underdogs, but the teams that start this list will probably need at least one star player in their division to get injured and a lot of other help along the way. In most cases, though, we're just looking to get these teams into the postseason. As we saw with the Eagles and Nick Foles last season, once you get in, just about anything can happen.

Jump to a team:

Projected Super Bowl odds: Less than 0.1 percent

Would FPI break and explode into a fireball if the Browns won the Super Bowl? Hopefully not, if only because the Browns are a bit of a trendy playoff pick in some circles. Our Mike Clay wrote about how the Browns are wild-card sleepers back in May, and the number of bets on the Browns have left them as the biggest liability for sportsbooks in Vegas as the season approaches.

Cleveland should get a healthy bump at quarterback with the additions of Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield, and its minus-28 turnover margin from a year ago is likely to regress toward the mean and flip a couple of victories the Browns' way. If the AFC West and NFC South both decline, the Browns also could end up facing an easier-than-expected schedule. Getting them into the playoffs, though, probably takes lost seasons in Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Projected Super Bowl odds: 0.1 percent

Another team with a new quarterback. The Bills traded Tyrod Taylor and already both acquired and traded AJ McCarron, leaving them with just Nathan Peterman and Josh Allen on the roster. The most plausible scenario for a return to the playoffs is that the Bills get an effective running game while Allen steps in and harnesses his elite physical traits as a deep passer on play-action. The ideal offense here is probably something like the 2008 Ravens, who had Joe Flacco throw the ball only 26.8 times per game.

Those Ravens led the league in takeaways and finished second in defensive DVOA, and while the Bills don't have names like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed on their roster, Sean McDermott's defense is deep at multiple levels and made several high-upside additions in picking up Vontae Davis, Star Lotulelei and first-round pick Tremaine Edmunds this offseason. The Bills proved they can make the playoffs alongside the Patriots last season, of course, but their ideal path would be some sort of lost season in New England and a home playoff game in Buffalo for the first time since 1996.

Projected Super Bowl odds: 0.1 percent

The best way for a team to drastically outplay expectations is to get a dramatic improvement in their quarterback play. Enter rookie Sam Darnold, who will start over 39-year-old veteran Josh McCown in Week 1 against the Lions. McCown played well last season, but Darnold offers a wider range of possibilities. The Jets could be truly bad if Darnold struggles with a middling offensive line and uninspiring receivers, but it's also entirely possible that the No. 3 overall pick transforms their offense. He's one of the favorites to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

It would be asking a lot of Darnold to play like a Pro Bowler from the jump, but it would hardly be a surprise to see Todd Bowles' defense grow in his fourth year at the helm. Leonard Williams is already dominating for stretches of time and ready to burst as the next star interior pass-rusher in the NFL. Williams has 44 knockdowns over the past two years, a number that would typically generate 20 sacks as opposed to the nine Williams racked up. After adding Rams star Trumaine Johnson in free agency, Bowles also has the best secondary of his tenure. A Jets breakout would still require some sort of Patriots collapse, but there's enough young talent here to inspire dreams of a high-variance breakout.

Projected Super Bowl odds: 0.1 percent

The Bucs find themselves as a slightly below-average team in a division with three possible juggernauts in the Falcons, Panthers and Saints. It seems likely that the Panthers will decline in 2018, but the Falcons and Saints are still projected to be among the best teams in the league. The last-placed team in the NFC South won the division the following year in each of the first five seasons of this schedule format, but few people are counting on the Buccaneers to flip the standings this season.

Again, though, it would be foolish to say that the Buccaneers have no chance. While Jameis Winston is suspended for the first three games of the season, the former No. 1 overall pick improved his numbers across the board last season. Tampa's defense was dead last in DVOA, but the Bucs transformed their defensive line by adding five new contributors alongside star Gerald McCoy, most notably Jason Pierre-Paul and first-round pick Vita Vea. Tampa also had the league's second-worst kicking game last season, and Chandler Catanzaro should be an upgrade on Nick Folk and Patrick Murray, though their field goals have been adventures for years running.

Sam Bradford had a strong preseason, and he enters the season as the unquestioned Cardinals starter. AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth

Projected Super Bowl odds: 0.1 percent

The Cardinals also hope that an upgrade at quarterback can spur them forward. Arizona is swapping out the trio of Carson Palmer, Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton for Sam Bradford, Josh Rosen and Mike Glennon, and when you remember that the Cardinals went 5-4 with Gabbert and Stanton under center, it's not crazy to imagine them piecing together a more impressive season. Arizona, fourth in defensive DVOA last season, brings back stars in Chandler Jones and Patrick Peterson.

Like the Buccaneers, though, the Cardinals' odds are less about their talent and more about the NFC West, which includes three possible playoff contenders in the 49ers, Rams and Seahawks. Their path to the playoffs (and then to the Super Bowl) probably requires those teams to all struggle. It's not crazy to imagine a scenario in which the 49ers have growing pains and lose a bunch of shootouts, the Rams fall apart amid a disastrous locker room and some second-year regression from Sean McVay's offense, and the Seahawks' roster reveals itself to be among the league's worst outside of Russell Wilson and Earl Thomas. Getting all three of those things to occur at the same time might be tough, but there's unquestionably a world in which it happens.

Projected Super Bowl odds: 0.2 percent

Adam Gase spent the offseason attempting to recalibrate the culture in Miami, but the most important addition the Dolphins might have made is getting back quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who was posting career-best marks for yards per attempt and passer rating when he went down with a partially torn ACL in 2016. Tannehill's athleticism should help spring the running game, and if the Dolphins trust Kenyan Drake enough to give him 250 touches, they might find they have a franchise running back. The quiet addition of Josh Sitton also upgraded the weakest part of the Dolphins' roster from a year ago.

If you squint, you might also see a defense that could emulate what the Eagles did a year ago, with plenty of depth along the edge at pass-rusher and a secondary built around rangy safeties in Reshad Jones, T.J. McDonald and first-round pick Minkah Fitzpatrick. This time last year, Gase was basically getting the Sean McVay press as one of the most promising young coaches in football. He didn't lose his ability to coach overnight. If the Patriots slip, the Dolphins might be the team best-positioned to pounce in the AFC East.

Projected Super Bowl odds: 0.3 percent

The Giants' core of top-level talent -- most notably Odell Beckham Jr., Landon Collins, Damon Harrison, Janoris Jenkins and No. 2 overall pick Saquon Barkley -- ranks among the best in the league. In 2016, the four pros were each among the best players at their respective positions. Last year, Harrison was the only one who didn't decline or miss time due to injury. The Giants can't be great if those guys aren't playing at a high level.

The second tier for the Giants will be what might propel them forward. Can young players such as Eli Apple, Evan Engram and rookie guard Will Hernandez play consistently effective football? Will expensive defenders Olivier Vernon and Alec Ogletree finally solve the Giants' problems at linebacker? And if Nate Solder can fix the Giants' pass protection woes at left tackle, is there life left in Eli Manning? The answers to these questions have to be a "Yes" for the Giants to be a Super Bowl contender.

Projected Super Bowl odds: 0.3 percent

People might be sleeping on Washington, which posted the league's highest pressure rate (34.1 percent) on defense in 2017 and only saw its season fall apart once its offensive line was ravaged by injuries. Washington's five projected starting linemen combined to miss 24 games, with Morgan Moses the only lineman to start all 16. A line with Trent Williams and Brandon Scherff could be one of the better units in the league if their stars stay healthy, and while Washington lost Kirk Cousins this offseason, it might very well have upgraded by acquiring Alex Smith.

The NFC East could be more of a competition than it seems given some questionable offenses. The Giants still don't have much of an offensive line and still have major questions about their quarterback. Dallas' offensive line is already struggling with injuries, and it probably has the worst receiving corps in football for Dak Prescott. Even the defending champs in Philadelphia are going to have Carson Wentz missing to start the season while subsequently playing his way back into game shape. The Eagles should still be the favorites to win the division, but we only have to look to last year to find what a team coming off a 7-9 record can do in the division.

Projected Super Bowl odds: 0.4 percent

Another in the line of teams desperately trying to get their offensive line working, the Broncos have seemingly been in a steep decline since winning Super Bowl 50 in 2016. John Elway's magic touch seems to have worn off since Peyton Manning retired, but it's not difficult to imagine the Broncos turning things around. Even in an off year, the Broncos ranked 10 in defensive DVOA last season, and that was before adding No. 5 overall draft pick Bradley Chubb. The best pass-rush duo in football arguably already resides in the AFC West, but it wouldn't be a shock if Chubb and Von Miller gave Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram a run for their money in the years to come.

It's not difficult to imagine the AFC West opening up for the Broncos, especially with the Raiders seemingly self-destructing before the season even starts. The Chargers and Chiefs both have incredibly high ceilings, but neither is a guaranteed quantity heading into 2018. If Case Keenum plays like the guy who posted a 98.3 passer rating in Minnesota in 2017, the Broncos will be in the thick of things in the AFC.