Scott Wartman

The Cincinnati Enquirer

Donald Trump won by losing Ohio.

That's what Princeton neuroscientist Sam Wang told a crowd Wednesday at Northern Kentucky University.

Wang has garnered a reputation since 2004 for predicting presidential elections based on math, including coming within one electoral vote of the exact 2008 presidential election results.

Based on his numbers, Trump is better off because Ohio Gov. John Kasich won Ohio's Republican presidential primary Tuesday. That's because Trump fares better in a three-way race than head-to-head, Wang said.

"If you are in the audience and are an Ohio voter who voted in the Republican primary and voted for Kasich, indirectly, you voted to support Donald Trump," Wang said. "How does it feel?"

Trump's unpopularity, at minus-30 or more in some polls, would make it hard for him to get a majority of delegates head-to-head with Ted Cruz, he said. Kasich's and Marco Rubio's delegates would likely go to Cruz.

"Trump is pretty unpopular," Wang said. "He's less popular than Ted Cruz."

In fact, to stop Trump, Kasich should stop campaigning in some states, Wang said.

Politically that might seem absurd, But mathematically, it isn't, Wang said.

Kasich should avoid states where the winner takes all or most of the delegates, he said. That could mean Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Trump would split delegates, giving Kasich a chance at a contested convention in July.

"He should hang back and let Cruz take all the punches," Wang said.

Wang put Trump's odds of getting the GOP nomination at 90%.

Wang usually sticks to predicting general election results. The drama surrounding this election, however, compelled him to crunch the numbers for the primary.

He acknowledged a primary is harder to predict, given the variability of voter turnout and the effect of separate elections in each state.

What Trump's odds are to become president aren't as clear. Polls on a Trump vs. Hillary Clinton match-up aren't as accurate this far out, Wang said. Wang said it's a foregone conclusion Clinton will get the Democratic nomination barring some calamity befalling the former first lady.

Wang gave an edge to the Democrats in the general election based on an economy that's not in recession and President Obama's improving approval rating.

"The better the approval rating, the better position the president's party is in," Wang said.

Why has a divisive candidate like Trump thrived? Wang blamed former House speaker Newt Gingrich for pioneering tactics like government shutdowns and presidential impeachments for policy disputes rather than negotiations.

This has created a harsher Republican Party, he said.

"Shutting down the government over a policy dispute, that's weird," Wang said. "Negotiation is now considered by a faction as a sign of weakness. The norm has changed."

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