Voters north of the Murray expressed their displeasure at the Abbott government's performance in the polls, but their memories of discredited state Labor governments were still very fresh. That wasn't so in Victoria. Queensland Premier Campbell Newman with Prime Minister Tony Abbott. Credit:Harrison Saragossi But the argument is much weaker now. Mike Baird is even more firmly entrenched in NSW, but Campbell Newman enters his race for re-election on level pegging in the polls with the mob that could not even field a cricket team in 2012. Back then, Newman's endorsement was so emphatic that his Liberal National Party won 78 of the 89 seats on offer. Now, there is doubt about whether he will hold his seat. Overwhelmingly, this is a reflection of the unpopular decisions his government has taken on several fronts, including the controversies over anti-bikie laws and clashes with the judiciary. But continuing antipathy toward the Coalition at a federal level is also a factor.

The common denominator, and the key to Labor's hopes of recovering from the annihilation of 2012 in Queensland and the walloping in the 2013 federal election, is the willingness of both Newman and Abbott to inflict pain without a mandate. There is another parallel, too: the failure to admit to mistakes or breaches of trust. This was apparent when Newman was asked after calling the election why, having secured the biggest win in Australian history in 2012, he was in danger of losing in 2015. "That's one for the political commentators," he replied. Newman says he is going early to ensure stability, but clearly sees his best hope of minimising the carnage is to call a short, sharp election when his opponents are unprepared, his constituents are at the beach and Abbott is out of the country or otherwise engaged. He says he wants Queenslanders to think longer and harder about this election than any poll in recent times, but demands their attention in the midst of the holiday season. A big ask. He remains favourite, of course, not least because his majority is so huge, but he is facing the prospect of heavy losses.

One certainty is that Abbott will be as inconspicuous in this campaign as he was in Victoria, notwithstanding the assurance by Newman on Tuesday that he is welcome any time. But that won't spare the Prime Minister from a share of the blame if the LNP does badly, or the need the absorb some hard lessons in a hurry. Follow us on Twitter