What the sales of skivvies tell us about the economy

DURING the halcyon days of consumer overspending, there emerged a trend of mid-riff bearing starlets not wearing underpants. The hemline indicator suggests skirts are shorter during booms, but fashion gets more conservative during downturns. Perhaps we should have taken the skin exposure a few years ago as an omen.

Somewhat similarly, Alan Greenspan looks at male underwear sales as an indicator of economic activity. Michael Brush reports



Greenspan reasons that because hardly anyone actually sees a guy's undies, they're the first thing men stop buying when the economy tightens. (He told this to National Public Radio's Robert Krulwich years ago.) By extension, pent-up demand means underwear sales should be among the early risers when growth returns and consumers feel confident enough to shrug off "frugal fatigue," says Marshal Cohen, the chief industry analyst with NPD Group, which tracks consumer behavior.

Men's underpants sales were down 12% in January, but have levelled off in recent months. This does not signal recovery, however, because men are not yet feeling confident enough to start replacing their worn-out skivvies. We'll know better times are ahead when sales start to increase.

Sales of women's undergarments are a less reliable indicator. Bra sales have actually remained vigorous throughout the recession. That may be because women consider undergarments a necessary good, it has a lip stick effect (women want to buy a small luxury they can still afford), or during the free-wheeling, no under-wearing days they did not build up an adequate supply to get them through these more austere times.