The India Today Opinion Poll conducted in the politically-crucial state of Uttar Pradesh has given the BJP a clear majority in the seven-phase Assembly election starting next month announced today.

The survey, conducted in October and December last year, shows Prime Minister Narendra Modi's demonetisation move has had no impact on voters, and has instead increased the BJP's vote share.

HERE'S ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW: The survey shows the BJP's vote share increasing from 31 per cent in October (before note ban) to 33 per cent in December. In terms of seats, that translates to 206-216 seats the saffron party may expect to win in the 403-member Uttar Pradesh Assembly. In the 2012 Assembly election, the BJP commanded a 15 per cent vote share and won 47 seats. The ruling Samajwadi Party is likely to emerge as the second largest party with a vote share of 26 per cent in the latest survey, translating into 92-97 seats. In a do-or-die battle, Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party is neck-and-neck with the Samajwadi Party in terms of vote share, and might win 79-85 seats. The Congress, which has not ruled Uttar Pradesh for 27 long years, is barely a contender with six per cent vote share and seats in single digits (5-9). The other parties in the state - Rashtriya Lok Dal, Apna Dal, the Left and others - might win 7-11 seats. The February-March election will test the popularity of Modi's decision to ban Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes in India's most populous state. Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav emerges as a clear choice for the next CM with 33 per cent of those surveyed wanting him to return to power. Uttar Pradesh will begin voting on February 11 and go on till March 8. Votes will be counted on March 11.

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