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Two seats in the valleys have the largest numbers of potential Ukip supporters of all Labour-held seats according to two political researchers.

Authors of a book called ‘Revolt on the Right’ have described Rhondda, which has an 11,553 Labour majority, as the most Ukip leaning Labour-held seat while Blaenau Gwent, with a Labour majority of 10,516, comes second.

Rob Ford and Matthew Goodwin studied the demographics of voters in seats across England and Wales and identified Ukip voters as those who feel they have been ‘left behind’ and older white working class many of whom left school at 16.

But rather than assessing an immediate threat to Labour strong-holds their research reveals the potential for such seats to switch.

Rob Ford, senior lecturer in politics at the University of Manchester and co-author of Revolt on the Right, said Ukip weren’t “very likely to run strong campaigns in these seats for at least three elections.”

The Ukip strategy revolves around targeting two or three seats where they have a serious chance of seeing an MP in May 2015 rather than building up support in seats over the longer term.

But he and his co-author Matthew Goodwin have identified large numbers of potential Ukip voters in 20 seats across Wales.

He said: “In terms of the kind of voters that live in them these are seats that have an awful lot of white older voters who left school at 16.”

Mr Ford said they made up the majority of Ukip’s support in contrast to voters from ethnic minorities, those with university educations who were economically secure and who had remained unconvinced by Ukip’s message.

At the European Parliament election in May, Ukip came second behind Labour in both Rhondda Cynon Taf - of which the Rhondda constituency forms a part - and Blaenau Gwent.

Although Tory defectors might do little to persuade voters in Labour heartlands, with a strong local candidate Ford believes Ukip have potential – especially in areas where local Labour parties have felt ignored by the central party in the selection of candidates.

Mr Ford said: “The tinder is there on the forest floor, you just need a spark to light it.”

And whereas there were areas of the country that would never support Ukip, like inner London, “there are plenty of other seats that could change including in South Wales.”

Chris Bryant, Labour MP for Rhondda, said: “I will never take the Rhondda for granted, which is why we in the Rhondda Labour team have been delivering thousands of surveys this week, knocking on doors and phoning people so that they can tell us what they think. So far the message coming across is that the Tory-led government has done nothing for the Rhondda, and people desperately want a Labour government.

“Few people in the Valleys who remember the miners’ strike were impressed by Nigel Farage saying he’s the only politician keeping the flame of Thatcherism alive. We know what harm she did.”

MP for Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith identified the lack of any local Ukip structure.

He said: “Ukip have a very low profile locally with few activists and their Leader’s praise for Margaret Thatcher won’t go down well with mining families.

“While I have a reputation as a hard working MP of course I will not take that position for granted and will be holding a street surgery in Blaenau Gwent this week and continue knocking doors from now until May 2015.

“The feedback I hear on the doorstep is that local people want to see the back of the Tory Government in Westminster and want a strong Labour alternative.”

Wales Ukip MEP Nathan Gill said: "Without wishing to cast doubt on what these academics are saying, I'd make the point that during the European Parliament election campaign in May we were consistent with our message whether we were talking to someone who lived in a big house with a driveway or someone in a small flat. We found we got a good reception from people of all classes.

"Having said that, we certainly got a good reception in traditionally Labour, working class areas, which is perhaps why Labour started to focus its attack on us towards the end of the campaign.

"It's no longer the case that people will vote Labour or Tory simply because they have always done so. People will vote for who they like and have been voting Ukip in increasing numbers."