THE 2018 AFL season won’t take place on paper. But if it did, 100,000 times, this is what would probably happen.

AFL stats gurus Champion Data have released the results of their massive simulation of the season ahead, spearheaded by statistician Karl Jackson.

They have given every club a percentage chance of making the top eight — and given how the numbers average out over the 100,000 simulations, there are no clear favourites or obvious losers.

Adelaide is the most likely to claim the minor premiership, finishing on top 17 per cent of the time, but three other clubs are given a 10 per cent or more chance as well — Sydney (16%), Port Adelaide (14%) and the GWS Giants (10%).

Round 18

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But even the Crows missed out on the September places entirely in 20 per cent of simulations.

In every AFL season with the top eight finals format, at least two teams have dropped out of the finals spots from one season to the next, and this is predicted to happen in 2018 as well.

The surprise comes from who moves up and who drops out. Many experts are tipping Melbourne to replace West Coast; but the surprise comes with Essendon ranked 10th, with a 38 per cent chance to play finals.

Replacing them is Collingwood, with Nathan Buckley’s men given a 63 per cent chance of playing finals and predicted to finish seventh on average.

Results of 100,000 simulations of the 2018 season.



Methodology here (https://t.co/tOe2LP1B8Y) but with tweaks to how improvement/decline is modeled.



Takeaway: Pre-season simulations aren't overly informative. pic.twitter.com/YhdfYMkc9k — Champion Data AFL (@championdata) March 2, 2018

That would come as a shock to many, particularly given the Dons played finals in 2017 and then recruited for the now, while the Pies missed September and then did very little in the trade period.

There is a large group of teams rated as at least some realistic chance to play finals, from fifth-placed Richmond (65%) all the way down to 12th-placed West Coast (34%).

There’s then a bit of a gap down to Hawthorn, who made the top eight in 26 per cent of simulations, and then another gap to a very tight race to avoid the bottom four.

North Melbourne is rated the best chance to claim the wooden spoon, finishing last 21 per cent of the time, just behind Brisbane (18% to finish 18th), Carlton (14%), Fremantle (13%) and Gold Coast (11%).

It would perhaps be surprising to some that the Suns, despite being without Gary Ablett this season, are rated the best of that group.

So how much should we read into all of this?

Well, Champion Data were ahead of the pack on tipping Port Adelaide last year. They predicted the Power to win 13.8 games when few had them in their top eight. They won 14.

They also tipped Hawthorn to slide and win just 11.6 games — in reality they won 10 games plus a draw.

So they know what they’re talking about quite a lot of the time. Nathan Buckley will certainly be hoping so.

But even they are taking it with a grain of salt, tweeting the takeaway from this research was that “pre-season simulations aren’t overly informative”.

CHAMPION DATA’S 2018 PREDICTIONS

TEAM - CHANCE TO MAKE TOP 8 - CHANCE TO FINISH LAST (if above less than 1 per cent)

1. Adelaide Crows - 80 per cent

2. Sydney Swans - 79%

3. Port Adelaide - 76%

4. GWS Giants - 69%

5. Richmond - 65%

6. Geelong Cats - 64%

7. Collingwood - 63%

8. Melbourne - 60%

9. Western Bulldogs - 48% - 2%

10. Essendon - 39% - 3%

11. St Kilda - 38% - 3%

12. West Coast Eagles - 34% - 4%

13. Hawthorn - 26% - 6%

14. Gold Coast Suns - 16% - 11%

15. Carlton - 13% - 14%

16. Fremantle - 13% - 13%

17. Brisbane Lions - 10% - 18%

18. North Melbourne - 9% - 21%