There were smiles, hugs, and laughs all around as the second-biggest NDP caucus in Ontario political history met for the first time this morning at a downtown Toronto hotel.

In some ways, it’s a great time to be a New Democrat. The party won seats it had never won before (including the seemingly impregnable Liberal stronghold of Toronto–St. Paul’s). And it won seats by margins of victory previously unimaginable (Toronto–Danforth by 24,807 votes; Parkdale–High Park by 22,586 votes).

For just the third time in Ontario history, the NDP is the official Opposition at Queen’s Park. And the caucus has perfect gender balance: 20 male MPPs, 20 female MPPs.

The scene as NDP leader Andrea Horwath met with her new caucus today. (Video: Steve Paikin)

As members arrived for their first post-election caucus meeting, there was a sense of genuine warmth as they greeted one another. Hamilton Mountain’s Monique Taylor hugged Oshawa’s Jennifer French for what seemed like five minutes — they were both so delighted to be returning to the legislature. Even Taylor shook her head in disbelief: “We won every single poll. Every single poll,” she said, marvelling at her 11,515-vote margin of victory.

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Conversely, French’s experience echoed that of many New Democrats: a victory, but a narrower one than last time. She won Oshawa by only 1,607 votes, as the Liberal vote collapsed and the Tory vote came on strong.

Marit Stiles was all smiles, having taken back the riding of Davenport from the Liberals. She had the third-largest margin of victory among NDP members: 19,051 votes. She and Ontario’s first MPP of Tibetan origin, Bhutila Karpoche, shared a happy moment together. Karpoche had the second-highest margin of victory, in Parkdale–High Park.

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And Gurratan Singh, younger brother of federal NDP leader Jagmeet, was on hand. He quipped: “We don’t look much alike, but I’ll admit we do sound alike.”

There really were some historic moments today. The new opposition leader Andrea Horwath embraced rookie MPP Sol Mamakwa, of Kingfisher Lake First Nation. Mamakwa will represent Kiiwetinoong, one of two new northern ridings created for the 2018 election with the aim of ensuring that the province’s Indigenous and francophone populations in the north would be adequately represented at Queen’s Park.

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Nevertheless, despite all the good feeling, there was a rather large elephant in the room: all these MPPs know that the unusual nature of this election means it might perhaps have been the party’s best chance at victory in a long while. A discredited Liberal party and deep concerns about Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford gave the New Democrats — with their likeable leader and her electioneering confidence — an opening.

With a little more than a week to go, some polls showed the NDP within striking distance of victory. However, a couple of unforced errors late in the game might have hurt their chances.

Horwath’s “happy warrior” demeanour in the first leaders’ debate on Citytv caused her party’s polling numbers to shoot up 15 points in one week. But a snippier, more argumentative Horwath showed up for the third leaders’ debate, hosted by the CBC. Then she expressed unwillingness to consider any circumstances under which back-to-work legislation might be appropriate to end a labour dispute, which gave the Liberals an opportunity to paint the NDP as radical. The Tories also skillfully created doubt about several NDP candidates whose past utterances and actions ranged from controversial to inexplicable. Following these events, surveys suggested that victory was beyond reach — but a darned good second-place showing was the consolation prize.

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“The campaign was five days too long,” joked campaign director Michael Balagus at this morning’s gathering.

The NDP will face tough questions in the months ahead. Did Horwath just fight her last campaign as NDP leader? Leading a party into four general elections is extremely rare in this day and age. Dalton McGuinty did it in 1999, 2003, 2007, and 2011 (one loss and three wins). Bob Rae did it in 1985, 1987, 1990, and 1995 (three losses and one win). Bill Davis did it in 1971, 1975, 1977, and 1981 (all victories). Will Horwath join that list in 2022?

At some point, although probably not for a year or two, the new Opposition leader will need to make clear whether she plans to stick around and give it one more try, or whether 14 years at Queen’s Park is enough.

But those decisions are for another day. Today was a day to drink Orange Crush and enjoy the NDP’s newfound status as the official Opposition.

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