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Hong Kong. A city of nearly 7 million people bordering China, recognized as a world financial center, now a fierce battleground between the China Model and Western values.

Just one week after an already historic million-person march against the controversial extradition bill, Hong Kongers decided to take to the streets again in massive numbers to show their growing dissatisfaction with their government.

Shortly after noon on June 16, about three hours before the scheduled start of the latest rally, swarms of people wearing black shirts began flowing into the Mass Transit Railway (MTR) stations of Central, Admiralty, Wan Chai, and Causeway Bay on Hong Kong island.

Some were holding signs reading “Students Didn’t Riot” and “Demand Accountability for Shooting, Withdraw Charges,” while others held fresh white flowers in memory of an anonymous protester who died the night before after falling from rooftop scaffolding as he unfurled a protest banner.

This protest movement, the biggest in Hong Kong since it was handed over to China in 1997, was triggered by Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s attempt to push through the Fugitive Offenders and Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters Legislation (Amendment) Bill, known as the “extradition bill.”

The bill would nominally enable Hong Kong to extradite fugitives from justice to territories with which Hong Kong has no formal extradition treaty, but critics contend that anybody living in or passing through the former British territory who Beijing wanted to silence could be sent to China and subjected to its arbitrary judicial system.

That’s why the legislation has not only sparked major internal conflict in Hong Kong but also drawn considerable concern overseas. Further tarnishing the images of the Beijing and Hong Kong governments was the use of violence used by police to quell an additional protest on June 12, held to prevent the bill from undergoing a second reading by the Legislative Council that would have put it on the verge of passage.

A Sensitive Time

These massive protests have come at a difficult time for Beijing. With the trade skirmish between the United States and China seemingly escalating, and U.S. President Donald Trump not ruling out imposing higher import duties on more goods from China imported into the U.S., Beijing has sought to find a way out of the dilemma by enlisting more allies.

But the turmoil that has arisen in Hong Kong has created “a general environment in which it is not just Hong Kong’s problem but is also affecting China,” says Ivan Choy, a senior lecturer in the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Department of Government and Public Administration.

With reputations on the line and the need to prevent the conflict from escalating further, especially with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump expected to meet at the G20 Summit in Osaka at the end of the month, this “family affair” was being closely watched.

So on June 15, the Hong Kong government announced it was suspending deliberation of the extradition bill in the Legislative Council because there was no longer the urgency to do so and said it would try in the future to seek consensus among the many parties involved.

A day later on the 16th, after a huge rally that drew 2 million Hong Kongers according to organizers, Lam apologized and stressed that there was no timetable for reintroducing the bill.

“Mrs. Lam’s decision represented the biggest single retreat on a political issue by China since Xi Jinping became the country’s top leader in 2012,” wrote the New York Times.

The government appeared to take a step back, but Hong Kongers, who wanted the bill permanently scrapped, remained dissatisfied.

“If [the bill] is withdrawn, then we’ll see if she [Carrie Lam] is willing to fully reflect on herself and if she will withdraw the charges against those arrested and investigate police violence,” said Wu Chi-wai, the chairman of Hong Kong’s Democratic Party, part of the city’s pan-democracy camp, in an interview with CommonWealth Magazine before the demonstration.

Hong Kongers are often seen as being politically apathetic, so what was it this time that triggered such anger?

“We see this as Hong Kong’s ‘Last Stand,’” said Johnny Lau, a well-known commentator who as a reporter witnessed the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration in 1984 that led to the handover of Hong Kong to China in 1997.

“Once the extradition law is passed, Hong Kong will be almost totally ‘mainlandized.’ Even the due process so coveted by Hong Kongers will no longer be respected.”

If the “Occupy Central” protests in 2014 that fought unsuccessfully for universal suffrage to choose Hong Kong’s leader represented the pursuit of democracy, then the 2019 “Anti-Extradition” movement represents the drawing of a line in the sand on issues on which Hong Kongers are not willing to compromise: the rule of law and freedom.

“In the Occupy Central rally, there were a few things we were trying to get, and there were many ways to try to get them, so our strength was easily dispersed. But this time, we are defending our bottom line. The common goal is very clear,” said Billy Li, the convener of the Progressive Lawyers Group, a Hong Kong civic group.

Strength around a Common Goal

At the root of that bottom line is a widespread lack of trust in China’s judicial system.

“Even though political prisoners cannot be extradited, it will be hard to guarantee in China’s special judicial environment that she [Lam] won’t trump up charges to achieve political ends. If that’s the case, how will you be able to prove your innocence,” wondered Li, a lawyer himself.

Li explained that not only are provisions on transferring suspects in the anti-extradition law controversial, but under the new law it would be the chief executive who makes the final decision on surrendering the suspect to a requesting country. Because the new law would not require legislative review of the case, as had existed for extradition cases in the past, there would be no oversight mechanism to prevent abuses.

Also, courts would only be empowered to review documents and evidence but could not examine whether a suspect was actually guilty of the alleged offense, which would ultimately undermine the independence of Hong Kong’s judicial system, Li argued.

To the people of Hong Kong, this potential loss of judicial independence represents far more than a chilling fear of the unknown; it is already a fact of life.

In 2015, for example, Causeway Bay Books owner Lam Wing-kee “disappeared” after distributing books offering salacious accounts of the private lives of Chinese Communist Party officials that were banned in China. Lam said he was detained by Chinese “special forces.”

Then there was the abduction of Chinese tycoon Xiao Jianhua from the Four Seasons Hotel in Hong Kong by Chinese security forces in 2017. Add to that China’s detention of dissidents such as Liu Xiaobo inside its borders, and it is not surprising that Hong Kongers are skeptical of their government’s talking points pledging that safeguards were in place to protect their freedoms and rights from Chinese intervention under the new system.

Because the extradition bill stepped on this line in the sand, even the Hong Kong business community that normally stands with Beijing and the Hong Kong government on most issues came out against the measure to protect its own interests.

One Hong Kong business association representative who often visits China on business explained to CommonWealth why the extradition bill left the private sector feeling so uneasy.

He said that since the 1997 handover, when Hong Kong companies have gone north to do business, they have often had to go along with unwritten rules of the game, the legality of which is extremely hard to judge given the close government-business relationships that exist in China.

“Nobody has any idea if they violated any laws or insulted anybody doing business in China over all those years. When they [China] want to give you a hard time, they can use any excuse they want to do so. Politics and business are inextricably connected,” he said, explaining why businesspeople in Hong Kong feel so insecure.

Destroying ‘One Country, Two Systems’

The international community sees the bill as a governance problem under the “one country, two systems” approach that in theory at least allows Hong Kong to run its own affairs with a high degree of autonomy. Other countries fear that if the extradition bill were to pass, Hong Kong’s judicial system would no longer be independent from China’s.

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Members of the United States Congress have even publicly threatened to reevaluate Hong Kong’s special status granted under U.S. law, with the possibility that it could lose its classification as an independent economic and customs area. That would undoubtedly affect its relations with other countries.

Hong Kong has been able to maintain its status as an international financial center and attract foreign investment since it was handed over to China 22 years ago precisely because of the autonomy and general freedom of interference from Beijing guaranteed under the “one country, two systems” model.

“If Hong Kong’s [status as an independent customs area] were canceled and China opened up other cities, what do you do?” wondered a high-level figure in Hong Kong’s financial sector.

In effect, a piece of legislation has left Hong Kong’s position as an entity separate from China, and its future, in a precarious position.

At the ceremony when Hong Kong was established as a special administrative region (SAR) of China on July 1, 1997, then Chinese President Jiang Zemin gave Hong Kong’s first chief executive Tung Chee-hwa a calligraphy scroll reading “Tomorrow Will Be Better.”

It was meant as a symbol of confidence in Hong Kong’s future development after returning to the embrace of the motherland.

“From 1997 to 2003, China’s government adopted a ‘hands-off approach’ toward Hong Kong. It did not get involved in the special administrative region’s affairs,” Lau, the commentator, recalled.

Under the Sino-British Joint Declaration, Beijing agreed that “the current social and economic systems in Hong Kong will remain unchanged, and so will the lifestyle” for 50 years. It also said that under the one country, two systems framework, Hong Kong would “be vested with executive, legislative and independent judicial power” and have independent finances, and a “Basic Law” was established to carry those policies out.

“China had two reasons for pushing one country, two systems in Hong Kong. One was to create a model to show Taiwan; the other was to prove to the world that it wanted to promote reforms and open up, and use Hong Kong to make money and develop its economy,” Lau said.

Because of China’s commitment to “one country, two systems,” “Hong Kong people governing Hong Kong,” and a “high degree of autonomy,” the fear of Chinese power Hong Kongers had before the handover gradually turned into anticipation. Hope emerged that China might slowly adopt Western-oriented systems and values.

“My generation of people in Hong Kong at one point felt we could change China and make it freer and more like Hong Kong,” said 50-something commentator Simon Lau, a former policy advisor to the government.

No Changing China

But the commitment to keep Hong Kong’s independent status unchanged for 50 years has quietly changed in step with the changing face of China’s relationship with the world.

Johnny Lau has taken part in Hong Kong’s most important protest movements – the 1967 Riots, the July 1 protest march in 2003, and Occupy Central. He observes that when 500,000 people took to the streets in 2003 to oppose Article 23 of the Basic Law, it set off a sense of crisis within China’s government.

“After that, China’s attitude toward Hong Kong went from a hands-off approach to a ‘hands-on approach.’” Johnny Lau said.

The 2003 demonstrations that shook China were held to oppose Article 23, which required Hong Kong to enact a security law probating “treason, secession, sedition, or theft of State property.” The failure to push a security law through amid the huge protests led China to get more involved in managing Hong Kong, with the key turning point coming when Xi Jinping took power in 2012.

Since then, the Chinese government has stressed that it exercised “overall jurisdiction” over the special autonomous region, insisted that Hong Kong people governing Hong Kong meant that “patriots form the main body of administrators,” and supported Hong Kong’s “integration into China’s national development.” Those words, coupled with the tough actions taken to crack down on the Occupy Central movement, highlight Beijing’s gradual suppression of Hong Kong’s autonomy.

With that transformation has come a shift in the geographical center of political power in Hong Kong, from Central where the SAR government is located to Sai Wan, home to China’s representative office in the SAR – the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government.

From China’s intervention in choosing the Hong Kong chief executive and in legislative elections and its crackdown on Occupy Central to its subsequent tightening of control over the local media and social groups, Hong Kongers have noticed huge changes before even half of the 50 year period of “no change” has passed.

“The Chinese love asking why when Hong Kong never had democracy under British rule are Hong Kongers so eager to make trouble now?” Simon Lau said as he compared British and Chinese rule in Hong Kong.

“In the past, the British government in Hong Kong used an ‘invisible hand’ to indirectly rule Hong Kong. Now, the Chinese government is directly ruling [Hong Kong] and its only worry is that you can’t see its hand.”

Under British colonial rule, Hong Kongers may not have had democracy, but they did have the rule of law and freedom, values that have disappeared when colliding with the sharp power of a rising China.

“When young people see nine leaders of the Occupy Central convicted for their roles in the movement [on public nuisance charges], and [China’s] suppression of dissidents and its treatment of people in Tibet in Xinjiang, can they really trust and identify with you?” Simon Lau said.

Without Freedom or the Rule of Law, Just an Average Chinese City

Johnny Lau believes the people of Hong Kong have long left behind the days when being able to earn a living was enough for them. A maturing civil society has inexorably created momentum to vie for the right to participate in politics, Lau argues, making any return to the era when money trumped self-respect and dignity unlikely, no matter how China suppresses the former British colony.

From opposition in 2012 to a “national education” program, Occupy Central, and protests against the “one place, two checks” system for a high-speed rail between Hong Kong and Guangzhou, to the latest rallies against the extradition bill, these acts of resistance all prove that “the power of Hong Kong’s people is mushrooming. As long as everyone is willing to stand up, that is the greatest achievement,” Johnny Lau said.

The reality of the situation, and one Hong Kongers seem acutely aware of, is that without freedom or the rule of low, Hong Kong will be diminished, eventually fading into nothing more than a mediocre Chinese city.

A businessman who has served as a member of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council said Hong Kong has been blessed by a geographical location that has it facing the world with China behind it to the north, positioning it for its longtime role as a middleman. Because of that, however, Hong Kong has grown accustomed to making money quickly through a few specific businesses – financial services, property, travel, and trade – but it lacks a broader industrial base.

If foreign funds were to pull out, Hong Kong would be rendered helpless, the businessman argued.

That is especially true as China has aggressively developed other cities, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen that now have higher GDPs than Hong Kong. Since the handover more than 20 years ago, Hong Kong’s GDP as percentage of China’s has fallen from nearly 20 percent to less than 3 percent.

The source predicted that outside of Hong Kong’s strengths – its institutions and international orientation – “in other areas, Hong Kong will eventually be ‘mainlandized’ and become the same as any other Chinese city.”

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Entering an Era of Political Turmoil

Can the authorities in Beijing face up to the changing mindsets of Hong Kong citizens and adjust their approach to managing the city? The odds are strongly against it, especially given that the Chinese government’s top policy priority is maintaining national security and stability, leaving it hard-pressed to stay out of Hong Kong’s affairs.

“The central government’s attitude used to be whatever we can’t do internally we’ll have Hong Kong do it. Now, the approach is if it can’t be done internally, then it can’t be done in Hong Kong,” said the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Choy. “China has total regulatory power over Hong Kong, and it cannot allow it to become a national security gap.”

The latest protests against the extradition bill have given Hong Kongers belief that their resistance can succeed. Though Carrie Lam had refused to step down or withdraw the bill as of June 19, she indicated at a press conference on June 18 that the bill would not be revived during the Legislative Council’s current session that ends in July.

But over the long term, as long as China does not change the way it administers Hong Kong and continues to move the one country, two systems framework closer to “one country, one system,” Hong Kong’s future and fate remain firmly in the hands of China’s authoritarian government.

On June 12, Hong Kong police used violence to disperse protesters, and photos of Admiralty’s empty, smoke-filled streets that shocked reframed this modern financial center as something of a front line in a Middle East war.

As China’s window to the world, Hong Kong has long straddled Eastern and Western culture and served as a meeting point for the two worlds. The anti-extradition bill protests have again put Hong Kong in the global spotlight, now as a battleground for Western values to face off against a rising China.

Source: AP

Mounting Dissatisfaction

Five years ago, on the eve of the Occupy Central protests to fight for universal suffrage, Ding Xueliang, professor emeritus in Hong Kong University of Science and Technology’s Division of Social Science, made a prediction that has stood the test of time.

He said that as Hong Kong’s middle and low-income classes grow increasingly dissatisfied with the SAR’s governance and feels growing pessimism over the interaction between China and Hong Kong, street protests will inevitably become more frequent. He believed then that Hong Kong would emerge as China’s most troublesome frontier.

In fact, one could say the anti-extradition bill protests should not be seen as the end of Hong Kongers’ collective street demonstrations, but rather just the beginning.

“Hong Kong is entering an era of political turmoil,” Simon Lau observed.

Reuters has reported that some Hong Kong tycoons started moving their personal wealth offshore because of the extradition bill, with one starting to shift more than US$100 million from a local Citibank account to one in Singapore. Is the calm of Hong Kong, the Pearl of the Orient, a safe haven on China’s periphery for more than 200 years, about to be extinguished?

Democratic Party Chairman Wu acknowledges that over the past 20 years, as the Chinese government has closed in step by step, Hong Kongers have actually given away many of the rights they should have fought for or defended.

“This has basically functioned like a Trojan Horse. Some people may have felt that doing this could help them obtain the biggest short-term gains, but they didn’t consider the aftereffects. When your wealth has increased from 1 million to 10 million within two years, it can be very tempting. We felt we were being so smart, but we never thought about any option other than relying on China,” Wu said.

Wu said there was a lesson for Taiwan in what has happened in Hong Kong.

“Taiwan should be strong and self-reliant, and depend on its own abilities to survive,” Wu told reporters from Taiwan. “It may be very difficult to do, but if you don’t do it this way, Taiwan will follow in Hong Kong’s footsteps sooner or later.”

Translated by Luke Sabatier

Edited by Sharon Tseng