Poll: Trump jumps to second among N.H. Republicans

Susan Page | USA TODAY

Real estate magnate and reality TV star Donald Trump has jumped to second place among New Hampshire Republicans, trailing only former Florida governor Jeb Bush in a new Suffolk University Poll.

Bush was supported by 14%, Trump by 11% in the survey of 500 likely GOP primary voters taken Thursday through Monday. They were followed by a dozen other contenders, almost all of them with more electoral and governmental experience than Trump, scoring single digits.

Still, the limits of Trump's appeal were apparent. Asked which candidates should be included on the debate stage — a cast that Fox News says will be limited to those at the top 10 of national polls — Trump finished 11th.

"It's the politics of plurality," says David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "Those who like him are voting for him, and although many more dislike him, the unfavorables are split up among many other candidates so it's not hurting him."

While almost no analyst sees Trump as a potential nominee, his support in the state that holds the first primary underscores his ability to be a player and affect the conversation in the Republican Party in 2016.

Both Bush and Trump officially announced their candidacies last week.

Trump has focused much of his fire on Bush, criticizing him for his support of Common Core education standards and of a path to legal status for undocumented workers. That stance is likely to be problematic for the former Florida governor. In the poll, more than eight in 10 disagreed with the view that illegal immigration is "an act of love," words Bush has used. More than six in 10 disagreed strongly.

The findings included some encouraging signs for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, although he finished fourth at 7%. Rubio had the most positive rating of all the candidates, with 61% of those surveyed having a favorable view of him, 14% an unfavorable one. He trailed only Bush as the second choice of voters and as a candidate voters wanted to see in the debates.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker was third, at 8%.

The top four finishers — Bush, Trump, Walker and Rubio — were followed by retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 6% and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 5%. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina were tied at 4%. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and Ohio Gov. John Kasich each received 2%.

That field seems to be big enough: Seven in 10 say they are satisfied with their choices, up from 55% three months ago.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

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