The magical mystery withdrawal plan

This lovely chart was a centerpiece of Gen. David Petraeus’ testimony this afternoon before the House Armed Services Committee and House Foreign Affairs Committee. It purports to show the level of U.S. troops deployed in Iraq falling gradually over … some period of time. As withdrawal plans go, it not exactly encouraging.



That bottom line — which would, in this kind of graph, presumably indicate some measurement of time — is a little tough to read. It says, “Leading to Partnering to Overwatch (Tactical to Operational to Strategic).” And in case you have no idea what that means, that’s the general name for the strategy Petraeus outlined today for the foreseeable future.

That’s a perfectly nice name for a strategy, of course, but this chart, while colorful, doesn’t actually tell us anything, except the fact that U.S. troops will eventually be in Iraq in much smaller numbers. Whether that’s in nine months, nine years, or nine decades remains a complete mystery.

As Matt Yglesias (from whom I stole borrowed this graph) said, “Basically, the idea is that about nine months from now, we’ll be back to the number of troops we had in Iraq about nine months ago. After that, more stuff is supposed to change . . . maybe . . . sometime . . . if all goes well . . . maybe . . . at some point.”

Now, to be fair, I should note that the chart, if you look closely, is not completely devoid of dates. It notes that by next summer, Petraeus is prepared to bring the overall deployment down to pre-surge levels, effectively ending the escalation, if the conditions meet with his satisfaction. Except, that’s not particularly encouraging, given that we’ll be out of troops by that point.



I’ll have plenty more about today’s joint hearing tomorrow, but it’s also worth noting that Ambassador Ryan Crocker, who was supposed to have something of a moderating influence on today’s discussion, was surprisingly ineffective and unpersuasive.

In this clip, via TPM, Crocker explains that the surge was intended to give Iraqis breathing room, and it succeeded — Iraqis now have “time and space to reflect on the kind of country they want.” It was, to my ears, the most breathtaking remark of the day.

We’re spilling blood and treasure to give Iraqis time — not to create some kind of political reconciliation, but so they can “reflect” on the kind of country they want? Please. Even Bush administration officials should be able to come up with something better than this.