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Hot take: Jul 2

Doubt it: Jul 9

Doubt it: Jul 16

Nope: Jul 23

Nope: Jul 30

Doubt it: Aug 6

Maybe: Aug 13

Maybe: Aug 20

Maybe: Aug 27

Maybe: Sep 3

Maybe: Sep 10

Maybe: Sep 17

Maybe: Sep 24

Nope: Oct 1

Doubt it: Oct 8

Doubt it: Oct 15

Doubt it: Oct 22

Doubt it: Oct 29

This is far and away the most likely date for an election after the Prime Minister announced he was bringing the Senate back to vote on the ABCC and the registered organisations bill, and would call a double dissolution if those bills are rejected.However in the unlikely event that the bills are passed then the election will be a normal half-Senate election later on in the year.School Holidays — ACT, NSW, NT, QLD, TAS, VIC, WAWhile this is still within the double dissolution window, Malcolm Turnbull has said that the date will be July 2 if a double dissolution is called.School Holidays — ACT, NSW, NT, QLD, SA, TAS, VIC, WAThis is the last possible Saturday to hold a double dissolution election, but Malcolm Turnbull has said that the date will be July 2 if a double dissolution is called.School Holidays — ACT, NSW, NT, SA, TAS, WAThis is the start of a two-week electoral black hole — Malcolm Turnbull can't hold a double dissolution election, and he also can't hold a normal election (a full House of Representatives and half-Senate poll).This is because a double dissolution election can't be called within six months of the House of Representatives expiring (November 12), but a normal election can only be called within a year of the Senate term expiring (30 June 2017).With a campaign, that means the earliest possible date for a normal election is August 6.This date is still within the two week electoral black hole — Malcolm Turnbull can't hold a double dissolution election, and he also can't hold a normal election (a full House of Representatives and half-Senate poll).This is because a double dissolution election can't be called within six months of the House of Representatives expiring (November 12), but a normal election can only be called within a year of the Senate term expiring (30 June 2017).With a campaign that means the earliest possible date for a normal election is August 6.This is the first possible date for a normal election (a full House of Representatives and half-Senate poll). But it's also the day of the Rio Olympics Opening Ceremony, which would kick off around 10:00am AEST on polling day.Now, it's not like the Olympics are being held in Australia, but we're a sports-mad nation, and it could influence the decision to go on this day.The Rio Olympics are still on, but there are no major events.The Rio Olympics winding down by now, and there are no other major events on this Saturday.This would put a poll on the same day as NT Election Day. That doesn't rule the day out completely, but it might stretch electoral volunteers.Alternatively the Federal Government could push the NT poll back by two months.Pencil this date in as a strong possibility if the Government decides to hold off until September — there are no other major events on this date that could conflict with an election.September 10 is also a strong possibility if the Government decides to hold off until September — there are no other major events on this date that could conflict with an election.There are no major events standing in the way of a September 17 vote, but school holidays are beginning.School Holidays — QLDSeptember 24 can't be discounted as a possible date, but a large swathe of the country is in school holidays, which will complicate a vote for families on holidays.School Holidays — ACT, NSW, QLD, TAS, VIC, WAOctober 1 will never be Election Day. It's AFL Grand Final day, and the day after is NRL Grand Final day.There would have to be a serious scheduling problem to send voters to the ballot box on this day. Can you imagine the outrage?Early October could still be a possibility, as the Prime Minister has said an election will be held in the "normal time", being August, September or October, but school holidays makes this less likely.School Holidays — ACT, NSW, NT, SA, TAS, WAThis would put a poll on the same day as ACT Election Day. That doesn't rule the day out completely, but it might stretch electoral volunteers.The Federal Government can also push the ACT election back to the first Saturday in December.School Holidays — SAOctober 22 is a possible polling date, but it is getting late in the year.And given talk of an election has been building all 2016, there could be a risk of voter fatigue if a poll is held this late.October 29 is a also a possible date, and likely to be the last date considered by the Prime Minister.There is still the risk of voters being fed up if a poll is held this late.