People stand on the coast watching the surf produced by Hurricane Matthew, on the outskirts of Kingston, Jamaica, on Monday. Credit:AP While forecasters have been wary about the long-range forecast – beyond three days, tracks can be off by as much as 280 kilometres – they said models on Monday afternoon shifted in response to the strengthening of a subtropical ridge. A strong ridge would steer the storm to the north-west. With the new forecast track shifting the cone of concern over a large swath of the state, including South Florida, state officials warned residents to get serious about preparations. On Monday afternoon Governor Rick Scott declared a state of emergency for the entire state. "If Matthew directly impacts Florida," he said, "there will be massive destruction we have not seen in years, comparable to what we saw in Hurricane Andrew." Forecasters said late on Monday local time that Matthew would likely pick up speed and make a turn towards the north-west on Wednesday. The centre of the storm will move over Haiti on Monday night local time, eastern Cuba late Tuesday and across the south-eastern Bahamas late Tuesday and early Wednesday.

A map showing the expected wind speeds generated by Hurricane Matthew. Credit:NOAA Around the Caribbean, countries evacuated thousands of residents as conditions worsened. Two fishermen have died in rough water churned up by the approaching storm in Haiti, the Associated Press reported. Haitian government officials went door to door warning residents. A security guard sits in front of a store that has been boarded up in preparation for the arrival of Hurricane Matthew in Kingston, Jamaica. Credit:AP Cuban authorities organised a mass exodus and moved more than 430,000 people from the southeast coast.

The Dominican Republic relocated another 13,000 people. While in Jamaica – which replaced its hurricane warning with a tropical storm warning Monday evening – sent buses to ferry residents from harbor towns. US Navy officials shipped about 700 family members from its base at Guantanamo Bay to Pensacola. People arrive with their belongings at a shelter prior to the arrival of Hurricane Matthew in Santiago, Cuba. Credit:AP If it hits Haiti, Matthew would be the first major hurricane to strike a direct blow in 50 years, raising concerns about widespread destruction. Rain poses the most serious threat. Forecasters warn the storm could dump up to 24 inches (600 millimetres) of rain on the country, with as much as 40 inches (more than a metre) possible in some places, likely triggering lethal mudslides. Seas churned up by the massive storm have already claimed two victims in Haiti near the coastal town of Les Cayes – a fisherman, whose body washed ashore on Saturday, and another man who remains missing. A buoy near the storm early on Monday recorded a wave height of nearly 34 feet (10.3 metres). Rain across the region could be "staggering," said National Hurricane Centre Director Rick Knabb. Parts of Cuba are expected to get 8 to 12 inches (20 to 30 centimetres), with as much as 20 inches (51 centimetres) in some locations.

"We will be measuring rainfall in feet, not inches," Mr Knabb said. Hurricane force winds spread across 130km. Tropical storm force winds covered nearly 600km. Matthew is also expected to generate dangerous storm surges, with massive waves likely to raise water well in advance of the storm's arrival. Forecasters warned the south coast of Haiti could see a surge of up to 16 metres. Similar for Cuba's southern coast and higher for the Central and south-eastern Bahamas. Matthew could weaken slightly as it passes over the mountainous islands, but forecasters warn it will likely remain a powerful hurricane when it reaches the south-eastern Bahamas. With punishing weather already hitting the islands, hundreds of people left their homes and began seeking shelter.

But even as parts of the islands began to flood, many residents ignored orders to leave, AP said. In the old port city of Port Royal at the mouth of Kingston Harbor, Government Minister Desmond McKenzie said two buses sent to evacuate residents ferried only two adults and two children to safety. Others in the neighbourhood insisted on staying to protect their homes. Schools will remain closed on Tuesday. At least 1200 people were evacuated to shelters in schools and churches in Haiti. Schools were also shuttered in Port-au-Prince, where residents lined up at gas stations and emptied supermarket shelves. Some worried the city of roughly a million people would not fare well. "We are not prepared," unemployed mason Fritz Achelus said as he watched water pool on a downtown street. The US Coast Guard also posted alerts for Port Miami and other South Florida ports and marinas. . In Cuba, leader Raul Castro and a group of Cabinet ministers oversaw hurricane preparations in the six eastern provinces that could be affected. Hurricane Sandy walloped Santiago in 2012, damaging 137,000 homes and killing 11.

In an effort to improve computer models forecasting Matthew's future track, hurricane hunter planes have been flying into the storm every six hours. A G-IV, nicknamed Gonzo and capable of high-altitude missions, is making twice daily flights to gather information around and in advance of Matthew, said hurricane centre spokesman Dennis Feltgen. Local weather offices are also increasing the release of weather balloons to collect information every six hours, he said. Miami Herald, Reuters