It is also instructive to see how sensitive this probability is to changes in state poll results. That is, which states impact the result the most if their polls change in favor of one candidate or another?

In the figure on the left, we see the resulting probability of an Clinton win, given changes in state polls from the five states with the most potential upside for Clinton or downside for Trump.

To keep the figure easy to read, it only includes the resulting probability of an Clinton win. The resulting probability of a Trump win is simply 100 minus the probability of an Clinton win.

As of November 8th, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin have the most potential upside for Clinton. If any of their state polls change by 10% in favor of Clinton (i.e. 5% switch from Trump to Clinton in any state), Clinton's probability of winning increases to around 77%-80% and Trump's probability of winning drops to around 20%-23%.

The results in this plot may not be as informative as one would hope, though. This is due to the fact that this plot shows how the resulting probability of winning changes if a particular state's poll results change by a certain amount. But it doesn't capture the likelihood that that state's poll will change by that amount. Therefore, keep this caveat in mind when interpreting the plot.