While the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) under consideration in the House would satisfy reconciliation instructions requiring it add no more than $1.5 trillion to the deficit (which is far too much), as written it would violate the “Byrd rule” and thus would require 60 votes to pass in the Senate.

Most significantly, we estimate the legislation would add about $155 billion to the deficit in 2028; the Byrd rule does not allow reconciliation legislation to add to the deficit at all beyond the budget window (which currently ends in 2027).