8. Indianapolis Colts

(3-2. Last week: 17)

Sometimes, things make themselves obvious before they are true. When I spoke with then-Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich the week of Super Bowl LII, it took about 10 minutes of a 20-minute conversation for me to figure out that Reich was ready to be a great head coach. From analytics to weekly preparation to offensive and defensive schemes, he seemed to understand everything. Consider all that Reich has overcome this season — from the shocking Andrew Luck retirement, to the retrofitting of Jacoby Brissett in his passing game, to key injuries to key defensive players Darius Leonard and Malik Hooker, Reich just keeps his team rolling. Switching to man coverage against Patrick Mahomes and running the ball right down Kansas City’s throat were two great decisions that turned things in Indianapolis’ favor in their Sunday night upset of the Chiefs, but this is more that just one game we’re talking about — the Colts are an overtime loss to the Chargers and a bad half of football against the Raiders from a 5-0 start. As Brissett continues to develop, and stars such as Leonard and Hooker return to the field, the Colts should be taken seriously as a contender — and it all starts at the top.

7. Seattle Seahawks

(4-1. Last week: 13)

Now that Patrick Mahomes has thrown just one touchdown pass in his past two games, has Russell Wilson leapfrogged him in the MVP race? After bullying the Rams last Thursday night in a 30-29 win, Wilson became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era with 1,400 passing yards and 12 touchdowns with no interceptions. That he has done so with an iffy offensive line and an unknown cadre of receivers outside of Tyler Lockett puts Wilson in rarefied air. Though Wilson has been an exceptional quarterback for a long time (he led the NFL in touchdown passes with 34 in 2017 and bumped that up to a career-high 35 last season), he’s hit an entirely different level of performance. Wilson faces vulnerable defenses in the Browns, Ravens and Falcons over the next three games, so his video game numbers could easily continue.

6. Buffalo Bills

(4-1. Last week: 7)

The Bills are 4-1? Yes, it’s a real thing. And it’s no fluke. They’ve only come up short against the Patriots, they have road wins against the Jets, Giants and Titans, and their defense is one of the NFL’s best. Quarterback Josh Allen is developing nicely as more than a running quarterback, and this has become an ideal team for its city — a tough, wily bunch with the ability to outpunch just about anybody. With a bye coming up in Week 6, Sean McDermott’s team has a lot to be proud of — and a virtual second bye against the Dolphins in Week 7.

5. Houston Texans

(3-2. Last week: 8)

On Sunday, Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for at least 400 yards and five touchdowns with five or fewer incompletions in a game in league history. That he did so at the expense of a Falcons defense that’s one of the NFL’s worst shouldn’t minimize the achievement — after the game, Watson went into an impressive treatise on what Atlanta was trying to throw at him, and he made very clear on the field what he intended to do about it. What’s even more impressive this season is that, given his status as one of the most pressured quarterbacks in the league, Watson has learned to overcome it. Per Pro Football Focus, he has a passer rating of 98.6 under pressure, with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. A Deshaun Watson who is relatively immune to pressure is a Deshaun Watson who can lead the Texans to the top of the AFC South and beyond.

4. Kansas City Chiefs

(4-1. Last week: 1)

Let’s pause before we hear too much about inevitable regression and the NFL figuring out Patrick Mahomes. Yes, the reigning MVP has thrown just one touchdown pass in his past two games and has looked quite mortal against the Lions and Colts, but there are mitigating factors. In Kansas City’s 19-13 Sunday night loss to the Colts, Mahomes was playing on a bum ankle, behind a beaten-up offensive line, and without his two best receivers in Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. He still made several stunning plays and kept his team in the game, completing 22 of 39 passes for 321 yards and a touchdown. Mahomes did overthrow several passes after left tackle Cameron Erving rolled up on his left ankle, and he is struggling more as defenses present him with more man and match coverage. But everything we’ve seen would seem to indicate that he’ll figure it out. A more pressing concern? Only the Jaguars have allowed a higher yards-per-carry average than Kansas City’s 5.3. That run defense is not stopping anybody, and the Colts took advantage. Other teams will as well, because the one sure way to beat Mahomes is to milk the clock and keep him off the field.

3. New Orleans Saints

(4-1. Last week: 3)

From Week 2 through Week 4, Teddy Bridgewater attempted just two passes of 20 or more air yards, with no completions and one interception. On Sunday against the Buccaneers’ ostensibly solid defense, Bridgewater flipped the script with four deep targets and four deep completions for 129 yards and a touchdown. In total, Drew Brees’ backup completed 26 of 34 passes for 314 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Not bad for a guy whose career was in question after a gruesome knee injury a few years back. If Bridgewater can keep this up until Brees returns from his thumb injury, the Saints will be a formidable foe with their dynamic defense — and Bridgewater could well find himself as one of the NFL’s most prized free agents at the start of the 2020 league year.

2. San Francisco 49ers

(4-0. Last week: 12)

Kyle Shanahan might be the most exotic offensive play-designer in the NFL, but there’s nothing ostensibly fancy about the way the 49ers made it to 4-0. Though their rushing playbook should be studied by every other team, this is a franchise that has settled into a comfortable paradigm — they’re going to beat the heck out of you on both sides of the ball, do it again, and ask you how else you’d like it. Their systemic beatdown of the Browns on Monday night was a case in point. Cleveland’s vaunted defensive front had no answers for Shanahan’s inside and outside zone calls, whams, pulls and backfield motions. And the defense? Yikes. Nick Bosa was absolutely unstoppable against the Browns’ offensive tackles, and a team that had two interceptions all last season now has seven through four games. Does the road to the NFC now go through the Bay Area? Tough to argue otherwise at this point.

1. New England Patriots

(5-0. Last week: 2)

No, the Patriots have not faced a Murderer’s Row of quarterbacks this season. And outside of the Ben Roethlisberger-led Steelers on opening night, you could argue that they haven’t opposed a credible offense. Or, we could set that aside and just admit that Bill Belichick’s defense in 2019 is going to be one for the ages. Through five games, the Patriots defense is playing at a pace to outstrip the 1985 Bears and 2000 Ravens, the two defenses most noted as the best of the post-merger era. The Pats have 11 interceptions; Green Bay ranks second with seven. They’ve allowed a ridiculous 4.0 yards per passing attempt. They’ve allowed an opponent passer rating of 44.0; the Bills rank second with a 66.9 rating allowed. The Pats play the Giants on Thursday night, and then the Jets, Browns, and Ravens after that. By then, it may be time to acknowledge that, while they have beaten weaker opponents at times, this defense is historic in its ability to shut everybody down.

32-25 | 24-17 | 16-9 | 8-1

Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar has also covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018-.