About a year ago, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont officially announced his presidential candidacy to a handful of reporters on the lawn of the United States Capitol in the middle of a normal day’s work.

There were no screaming crowds, there was no fanfare, and there was little excitement in the media.

“Let me just make a brief comment… I’d be happy to take a few questions, but we don’t have an endless amount of time, we’ve gotta get back.” — Bernie Sanders, announcing his 2016 presidential bid.

Today, things are a little different.

After his stunning win in Michigan, described by FiveThirtyEight as “one of the greatest upsets in modern political history,” rarely does a day go by when the senator doesn’t make a headline — and with good reason. Few could have predicted that a 74-year-old self-described democratic socialist would be fighting Hillary Clinton — arguably the most famous name in American politics — late into March in the Democratic primaries.

Yet here we are.

While it is true that the Sanders campaign has exceeded just about every conceivable expectation one could put forth, the realities are that Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead — both with pledged and unpledged “superdelegates.”

Here’s how the Sanders’ campaign can overcome that.

First, Bernie needs to limit his margins of defeat in Tuesday’s contests, particularly in North Carolina and Florida. Two losses in the 60–40 range would not be deal-breakers, assuming he can keep Ohio and Illinois close and win in Missouri.

Clinton will likely expand her pledged delegate lead to around 280 on Tuesday, and it will likely be the biggest it will get all year.

While a 280 pledged delegate lead seems insurmountable, and is in fact a massive advantage for Clinton (Obama’s biggest lead in 2008 — of which Hillary Clinton was unable to overcome — was less than half of that), there is reason to believe that history might not repeat itself.

After Tuesday, nearly every state that follows is demographically favorable to Sanders. The Clinton blowouts of the South will be in the rearview mirror, and the ball will be in Sanders court to score decisive victories in the upcoming contests.

Out of the 2,042 pledged delegates left after Tuesday, Sanders will need to win about 1,160 of them — roughly 57%.

The game plan for the Sanders’ campaign from then until June 14 will be as follows:

First, Sanders needs to focus on the delegate-rich states left on the map that he has chances to do well in, and he needs to win them by convincing margins: Washington (+20%), Wisconsin (+20%), New York (+10%), Maryland (+10%), Pennsylvania (+15%), Indiana (+10%), California (+20%), and New Jersey (+10%).

Some of these, such as Washington and Oregon, are favorable to him, and he will likely hit his needed target.

Others, such as New York, a state Clinton will undoubtedly be strong in because of her ties there as a senator, will be much tougher battles, and he’ll need to fight hard to eek out smaller victories.

California, with its monster prize of 475 pledged delegates, is the most important primary in the entire campaign, and a sizable win here is the backbone to a Sanders nomination — a loss here will guarantee Hillary Clinton the nomination.

Should Bernie lose in just one of these eight states, the race will be all but over.

Next, he needs to limit his losses to the states where he is likely to perform poorly: Hawaii (-5%), Guam (-20%), Virgin Islands (-20%), Puerto Rico (-10%), and Washington D.C (-10%).

While Sanders could struggle in these contests, they are among the smallest delegate prizes of the entire campaign, so it is in Bernie’s best entrance to shift resources elsewhere. Of the five, his best shot at a win is Hawaii.

Finally, he needs to round out his performance with sizable wins in the rest of his favorable states: Idaho (+10%), Utah (+20%), Alaska (+20%), Wyoming (+20%), Connecticut (+20%), Delaware (+20%), Rhode Island (+20%), Indiana (+10%), West Virginia (+30%), Montana (+20%), New Mexico (+10%), North Dakota (10%), and South Dakota (10%).

Should Bernie Sanders meet these goals throughout the second half of the primary calendar, he will arrive at the convention with a majority of the pledged delegates, and it will be up to the DNC and its superdelegates to choose the nominee. Should he be denied the nomination with a pledged delegate lead, we may be in for a repeat of the 1968 Democratic National Convention, riots and all.

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