Donald Trump repeatedly claims he’ll beat Hillary Clinton like a drum in 2016 presidential election and that the polls back him up. He’s wrong.

The surprising Republican front-runner may very well win election in November, but that’s not what the polls show. And historical polling data suggests he’ll face an uphill climb.

Going back to last spring, Clinton has led Trump in head-to-head matchups in 43 of 50 polls, tracked by RealClearPolitics.

So far this year Clinton has been ahead in nine of 11 polls, with leads ranging from 1 point to 13 points.

In the two most recent polls this week by ABC/Washington Post and NBC/Wall Street Journal, Clinton is ahead by 9 to 13 points.

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By contrast, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has averaged a 4-point lead over Clinton in the last six polls and is the only Republican who regularly comes out on top against her. But his campaign appears to be dying and he could be out of the race next week if he loses his home state.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has a thin 0.8% edge in the last six polls vs. Clinton. But she’s led in 48 of 59 head-to-head matchups since last spring.

Now, early polls are not foolproof and the 2016 election could be different. After all, no one predicted Trump would race to such a big lead early in the Republican primaries. And Clinton isn’t especially popular with either voters in her own party or the public at large.

Yet early polls usually offer good clues on the strength or weakness of the leading candidates in each party.

In 2012, President Barack Obama led Mitt Romney in 28 of the first 40 polls through early March, with six ties. Although the gap narrowed, Obama won the election 51.1% to 47.2%.

In 2008, Obama led John McCain in 20 of the 29 head-to-head matchups from January through early March. McCain came out on top in polls every now until mid-September. From that point on Obama led every poll and won handily 52.9% to 45.6%.

The era of modern polling — lots of pollsters and lots of polls — really started in 2004. And that’s the election that offers the most hope for Trump.

Democrat John Kerry led President George W. Bush in 16 of the 29 head-to-head matchups through early March, helped by growing fatigue over the Iraq war. Yet Kerry’s margin was slim — Bush was on top in 10 polls with three ties.

The polls swung back and forth until late August, but warning signs about Kerry’s weakness as a candidate were there all along. As Bush began to pull away, Kerry only led in seven of the last 85 polls from September until Election Day. Bush won 50.7% to 48.3%.

Earlier elections did not involve nearly as much polling as recent ones. That’s makes comparisons between now and then less telling.

George W. Bush led in most early polls in 2000 by a small margin over Al Gore. He maintained a 2- to 4-point edge in the final weeks but actually lost the popular vote in the hotly disputed election.

Bill Clinton led in virtually every poll in 1996 against Republican Bob Dole and the outcome was never in doubt. He won 49% to 41%.

George H.W. Bush posted big leads early in 1992 over Bill Clinton, but a poor economy and internal divisions among Republicans put the incumbent on the defensive.

Clinton catapulted to the top of polls by July and never looked back. He won 43% to 37%, with businessman Ross Perot siphoning off 19% of the vote.

Republicans are even more divided in 2016 than they were in 1992 — and that could prove fatal in the fall.

In both 1980 and 1988, Democrats held big early leads in the few national head-to-head polls that were conducted. Yet both Democrats, President Jimmy Carter and Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis, were flawed candidates who inspired little confidence.

Republicans Ronald Reagan, in 1980, and George H.W. Bush, in 1988, took clear leads in the fall polls and coasted to election.