Trying to wipe out Assad’s air power would come with risks, not least the potential fallout from any Russian deaths

Donald Trump ordered an attack on Syria a year ago in response to a chemical attack, resulting in 59 US Tomahawk cruise missiles hitting the Shayrat airbase.

Given that it failed to deter the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, and regime forces from using chemical weapons again, the US president must now decide whether to launch a more punitive strike in the wake of the suspected gas attack in Douma on Saturday.

After the Shayrat attack in April last year, the US claimed to have destroyed 20 planes – described by the defence secretary, James Mattis, as 20% of Syria’s operational air strength – and to have seriously degraded the base. Other reports challenged this, however, saying Syrian aircraft were taking off from the base only hours later.

If Trump needs to send a stronger message this time, one option is to completely destroy Syria’s air force.

Having fought against Syria regularly over the past 70 years, including frequent raids in the past two years, the Israeli air force knows Syria’s strength better than anyone else.

Reuven Ben-Shalom, an Israeli military analyst who spent 25 years in the Israeli Defence Forces, was reluctant to sound boastful but in the end could not help but describe Syria’s military capability as “a joke”.



To take just one indicator, Syria has 15,000 personnel in its air force, according to the Military Balance published by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. Israel has 34,000 and the US 316,000.

Ben-Shalom said Israel’s military superiority would ensure it could destroy the Syrian air force, and US military superiority was many times greater still.



However he added a crucial caveat: the potential confrontation was not just about military capability. “The main issue is the umbrella the Russians have given the Syrians. The Russians are inside Syria.” The US risked launching an attack that started a third world war, he said.

Jeremy Binnie, a defence analyst and the Middle East editor at Jane’s by IHS Markit, said: “The US Navy could potentially use Tomahawk cruise missiles to do a larger version of last year’s retaliatory strike on Shayrat airbase, if it has a sufficient number of destroyers and attack submarines within range.”



Likely targets would be aircraft and other assets that are difficult to repair, rather than the bases themselves.

Binnie said it would seem fair to say the US could carry out a strike four times larger than the one last year. “So if the Shayrat strike destroyed 20% of the Syrian air force, as claimed, then one four times as large would in theory finish it off, but then you would have to factor in any improvement in Syrian air defences. At the same time, there is a risk that if you say you have destroyed the Syrian air force, but miss a few aircraft, you might look a bit silly when they are seen flying.”

Syria has been reinforced by the Russian S-400 missile system. Earlier this year, Syria claimed to have brought down an Israeli F-16 fighter jet that crashed while returning from a raid.

But Ben-Shalom pointed out that things go wrong in war and the downing of the plane had probably been due to a combination of events. In the end, Israel retained “overwhelming domination” of the skies, he said.



The biggest risk facing Trump is not Russian air defence systems but killing Russians. The US administration warned Russia before last year’s attack on Shayrat and, presumably, would do so again. The US also knows the parts of the Syrian bases where the Russians are located. But as Ben-Shalom said, things can go wrong in war.