This is already a big week for Brexit. Ministers from the 27 other EU member countries have set the terms for a transitional deal until the end of 2020: that everything will remain the same except for the loss of a British vote, and voice. The only quarrel I would have is that the transition is likely to last longer. But to take phase one of Brexit as a template, it seems very likely that the government will accept the EU’s transition terms.

We also had the leak, to the website BuzzFeed, of the document EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing. This showed that the economy would suffer over the coming 15 years under three scenarios: Norway-style European Economic Area membership (2 per