HI Dani,



Anyone who thinks that a Grexit will work for Greece is dreaming in Technicolor.



If anyone thinks that the EU will simply allow Greece to leave the EU in a very La-Te-Da fashion, after the EU has invested so much time, prestige, and treasure to save Greece, they are simply not living in a reality-based world.



Are you kidding me?



Once Greece were to leave, things would not merely continue as if nothing had happened.



I offer a partial list of the probable and logical things that could/would be done by the EU nations in the case of a Grexit...



a) closed borders and closed trade to the EU markets.

b) a backcurrent economic war, where (among other things) Greece's business interests anywhere around the world would be undercut or nullified.

c) dramatically improved EU relations with Turkey to Greece's detriment.

d) Greek registered ships of any kind (including cruise ships) barred from entering EU waters/ports.

e) Landing rights revoked in the EU for Greek airlines.

f) Greek passports not recognized by the EU.

g) Internal EU banking regulations to prevent any EU investment in Greece, and any Greek banks operating in the EU would have their assets seized to help defray EC, ECB and IMF donations to Greece)

h) Hassling the Greek Navy and Greek Air Force anytime it leaves Greek maritime or Greek airspace.

i) Prevent Greek registered ships from passing through the Strait of Gibraltar or the Suez Canal.

j) Undercutting and displacing any trade/defence/political agreements with North African nations.



(That's just the short list of possible actions by the EU, should they choose to punish Greece for leaving the EU)



This would allow the EU to:

1) punish Greece for leaving and send a strong signal to other EU nations that may later consider leaving the Union, that they will become pariah nations.

2) to pick Greece's bones. To purchase stranded Greek assets wherever they may be located on the planet or in the world's ports.

3) to (at long length, after all bones are picked clean, and the point is well made) allow Greece to return to the EU, but this time as a true beggar nation with an even weaker bargaining position than it has now.



Anyone who thinks that some, all, or even more actions, than the austere list I've outlined above, wouldn't immediately come under EU consideration, is hopelessly naive.



Greek leaders would be wrong to assume that there wouldn't be formidable consequences to leaving the EU.



And they would be wrong to leave the EU -- with their present, moderately strong bargaining position -- to exchange it for a much weaker one 10 years later.



In the meantime, I would urge Greek leaders to work *with* the EU and it's institutions, and I would ask the EU to *gently* guide the conversation towards a successful outcome for all parties -- even though a Grexit and a thorough bone-picking of stranded Greek assets might net them much more in the long run.



I always appreciate your fine posts, Dani.



Best regards, JBS



