What’s up guys, I’m Taco and I’m gonna be sharing my insight with you guys on everything PGA DFS. No other DFS Sport offers a multi-day experience and PGA gives you 4 days of action to sweat. Each tournament varies in strategy so I’m going to be going over tournament-specific strategies each week and break down the courses based on analytics of previous winners and the types of challenges each course brings to the table. For the sake of convenience I’ll be limiting my analysis to DraftKings scoring, as it’s by far the biggest platform or DFS PGA.

General Scoring Strategy

In a standard cut event like this one a field of players (usually 100+) will play 1 round per day for 2 days then after the 2d round the field will be cut down to (typically) 70 players and ties. It’s crucial to get your players through the cut or else they don’t accrue any points in the 3rd and 4th round and they won’t get any bonus for high finishes. You can see a breakdown of the fantasy scoring here.

Birdies (3 pts) and eagles (8 pts) are worth significantly more than the points you would lose from bogeys (-.5 pts) and double bogeys or worse. (-1 pt) This means that players who score more birdies- even if they bleed it back with bogeys- are worth more than players who par a lot. For example, if a player gets 4 pars (.5 pts) that’s good for 2 pts. If a player gets 2 birdies and 2 bogeys that’s good for 5 pts even though they both shot even par for those holes. This means that players with high Birdie or Better % stats are coveted when it comes to fantasy scoring.

In cash games it’s all about getting your guys through the cut. Try as hard as you can to roster 6 guys who will make the cut. Even 5/6 players through the cut will cash the majority of the time. In GPP games you need to land the winners and big scorers. Eagles are important for scoring points in GPP and those come mostly from long drivers who can hit the green in 2 on par 5s. Examples of these kinds of players are your ‘bombers’ like Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, and Justin Thomas. In cash games you often times want to target safer players who have good driving accuracy, short game, and don’t get themselves in trouble often like Jim Furyk, Matt Kuchar, Zach Johnson, and Patrick Reed.

A look at the Sony Open

I’ve made a spreadsheet that lists course history of finishes along with salary and odds for this week here

Sony Open 2016 Spreadsheet

Course: Waialae Country Club

Location: Honolulu Hawaii

Par: 70

Length: 7020 yds

The typical golf course is a par 72 and ~7200 yards so this course is particularly shorter and has more par 3s than your standard course. This favors players with better short games and limits the advantage of long drivers. A look at performances of the top finishers of the last several years show this course favors driving accuracy over driving distance and most importantly good putters. Each of the last 4 winners of this tournament ranked in the top 8 in Strokes Gained: Putting (the most telling stat for determining putting strength) in the event, while 2013 and 2012 winners Russell Henley and Johnson Wagner ranked outside of the top 50 in driving distance. Other stats that stick out are Greens in Regulation and Approaches 150-175 Yards.

Course History Picks

Jimmy Walker $12,200

Jimmy is the 2-time defending champion at this event and lapped the field by a staggering 9 strokes last year. He also finished T4 in 2011. It’s no surprise he’s the most expensive player as this is by far his most dominant course and expect him to have heavy ownership despite his price. He’s the tour’s best putter and has dominated in almost every statistical category here over the last 2 years.

Matt Kuchar $11,500

Kuchar boasts 4 straight top-8 finishes here and it’s no surprise as he’s the one of the kings of short courses. This is the kind of course that caters to his dink and dunk game perfectly and he’ll make a strong cash play.

Harris English $10,200

In the last 3 years here English has finished 3rd, 4th, and 9th. Harris has never really been one to win tournaments, but his superb putting and accuracy in the key range of 150-175 yards bodes well for him to continue his run of success in Honolulu.

Charles Howell III $9,700

Howell tends to play much better early on in the season and has 4 top 10s in the last 6 years while never missing a cut. Err on the side of caution with Howell however as he’s a much different type of player than your typical par 70 guys. He’s a bomber and not a very good putter but in his 2nd and 3rd place finishes here he was near the top in putting. Use him in GPP instead of cash.

Steve Stricker $7,200

Stricker hasn’t played here in 3 years but he’s historically done very well here. He fits the player mold perfectly as a short game specialist and has a knack for making cuts. His price tag is cheap and he seemed to be over his injury towards the end of last season.

Current Form Plays

Kevin Kisner $11,700

Kisner had a breakout season in 2015 and has really turned it up over the Fall/Winter season with a breakthrough win, then a 2nd place finish. He turned in a 9th place performance last week at the Hyundai although he was top 3 all week until regressing a little on Sunday. His putter’s been hot and he’s been hitting greens at a good rate, particularly on par 5s which is key.

Will Wilcox $9,000

Okay so he hasn’t played in a while but he sure had a magnificent last half of 2015. He’s a statistical monster who was 4th on tour in Greens in Regulation, 10th in Eagle average, 2nd in Total Driving, 2nd in Sand Save %, and 20th in Proximity to Hole. He posts either posts high finishes or misses the cut completely. Wilcox makes for a very strong GPP play.

Patton Kizzire $8,800

The frontrunner rookie of the year already has 2 top-5 finishes this season and is a par 3 specialist. His driving skills aren’t very good at all yet but he has solid putting skills and has flashed a clutch factor in later rounds. Look for him to stay hot at a course that really suits his game.

Peter Malnati $7,500

Malnati already has a win in the Fall season and is fresh off an incredible showing last week at the Hyundai posting a T6 in a star studded field. He’s a putting specialist who ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Putting and this is a putter’s course.

Plays Based on Odds

The following players stand out as players the oddsmakers like better than DraftKings has them salaried: