The following discussion took place a couple of days ago on EchoTV in Hungary. The presenter on the program welcomed György Nógrádi, a national security expert, economist, and professor of military science. The conversation ranged over the migration crisis, national security issues, political affairs in Europe, and — what else? — today’s election in the USA.

Many thanks to CrossWare for the translation, and to Vlad Tepes for the subtitling:

Transcript:

00:18 Good evening. You are watching “Free Europe”.

00:22 About a month ago, on October 2nd, the population of Hungary

00:26 voted on the issue of mandatory [migrant] quotas. Most of the voters, 98% of them,

00:32 said NO to accepting the migrants.

00:36 What has happened since then in Europe?

00:40 Is it safer, or just the opposite — did the continent

00:44 become more dangerous?

00:48 Did any visible steps the EU during the past couple of weeks

00:52 show any results in stopping the flood of migrants?

00:56 In today’s show we will search for answers for the above questions.

01:02 Since the closure of the West Balkan migration route, around 77,000

01:06 migrants have been stuck in southern Europe — as estimated by German officials.

01:10 Most of them are in Greece, about

01:14 6,000 of them on the Greek islands.

01:18 Although the Balkan route is closed, a lot of migrants have made it to Serbia.

01:22 Because from 2,000 in June, their numbers

01:26 increased to 6,300 today.

01:30 From the direction of Italy the flood of migrants is continuous.

01:34 According to international organizations,

01:38 more than 3,800 drowned while attempting

01:42 to reach the European coast. The endless flood of migrants

01:46 forced the Pope to state: he is worried, and that integration is important,

01:50 but we must differentiate between refugees and economic migrants.

01:54 Governments should only accept as many migrants as they realistically are capable of integrating.

02:00 Here I would like to welcome György Nógrádi, a national security expert.

02:04 Good evening. —Good evening.

02:08 I would like to start with a question here, because you are one of the top three experts

02:12 who could answer it.

02:16 Do the American government, the world powers, the different groups,

02:20 such as the Bilderbergers or media empires like CNN,

02:24 have any interest in stopping the war in Syria,

02:28 to stop the migrant crisis?

02:32 Lot of people think, maybe just based on

02:36 American movies, that these organizations

02:40 or even the American military industrial complex

02:44 needs continuous hotspot

02:48 centers of crisis in the world.

02:52 Is there such connection, or this is just fiction?

02:56 Interesting question, and the clip was interesting too, which I would like to reflect on later.

03:00 What we must consider: Tuesday there will election in the USA.

03:04 Incredibly interesting.

03:08 In the history of the country there was no example of two such

03:12 unpopular people competing. As an added fact,

03:16 both are close to 70. The whole campaign was mud-slinging, so nobody talked about

03:20 taxes, finances, defense politics, how they will react, what are the strategies…

03:24 One side, Trump brought up Hillary Clinton email scandal,

03:28 which he was completely right about. He brought up Hillary Clinton’s

03:32 financial affairs, the large and suspicious amounts that flowed into their foundation.

03:36 When Bill Clinton finished his eight-year presidential term,

03:40 they were in the red; now their private wealth is more than $50 million.

03:44 I calculated how much money they had to have “earned” daily,

03:48 it must have been pretty hard to do it in an honest way.

03:52 Not long ago I returned from Norway, where the Norwegian government openly stated they contributed

03:56 to Hillary and the Clinton Foundation. Now they are more careful, because before the election

04:00 the situation is not completely clear. This could be a topic for another discussion.

04:04 Trump: He has no idea about the world! Hillary Clinton: she was pretty mediocre

04:08 as Secretary of the State. We must see this is how the world looks today.

04:12 I always say, one can love the US or hate it.

04:16 Without the US the world can’t function properly and handle its problems.

04:20 The world needs a police officer, but the question is: what type?

04:24 The one Donald Trump can bring or what Hillary Clinton represents?

04:30 The role of United States is decreasing in the world.

04:34 But this decrease still means that for the foreseeable future it will be the

04:38 leading power of the world. In satellite intelligence gathering, nobody comes close.

04:42 Technological know-how, in military technologies, they still have a strong lead.

04:46 This US is one of the three global players.

04:50 The second is China, way behind them,

04:54 the third even further behind is Russia. And here is the answer to your question:

04:58 Europe is not a global player. What about Syria then?

05:02 Today there are about 20-22 conflicts/wars across the world. Syria is only one of those.

05:05 It is important, but there are wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, and we could list more.

05:10 The basic question for me always the following, as you asked one version of it.

05:14 Let me phrase it differently: Does anyone in the world have an interest in a united strong Europe?

05:18 The answer is NO, this is not a Russian interest, not a US interest,

05:22 and not a Chinese interest. Everybody wants a divided Europe,

05:26 because this provides a playground: this is what Putin is playing with,

05:30 and so are the Chinese. And this is what the next leadership

05:34 of the United States will play with, too. Look at, for example, how haplessly

05:38 we concluded the agreement with Canada! The minister had to travel home,

05:42 then Trudeau had to come back later to sign the agreement.

05:46 Then everybody can see that this Europe can’t even handle elementary processes

05:50 as EU-28 — now after Brexit EU-27 (countries). That is the problem.

05:54 In the clip we saw the migrants. Let me react with a couple of comments.

05:58 Yes, Greece is a determinative factor. But now Greece is in a financially hopeless situation,

06:01 deep in debt. We must say it: the Greeks will never ever pay back their debt,

06:06 which is close to €400 billion;

06:10 they are not able to and do not want to pay it back.

06:14 From this point we can play around, give them more loans,

06:17 which will be lost again, and they will never pay them back, but in exchange

06:21 they might start paying back their earlier loans, while their debt ratio will become catastrophic.

06:24 In the clip we heard there are two routes: the Balkans and Italy.

06:30 Let’s play it fair, the Balkan route only works

06:34 until we get a grip on the Turks. What is the problem?

06:38 Turkish politics sets some goals which are completely unacceptable for the EU.

06:42 The Turkish authorities in the last couple of hours arrested nine representatives of their Parliament.

06:46 They arrested two Kurdish representatives who were actually loyal to them.

06:50 This is totally unacceptable for Europe.

06:54 As soon as both Minister of Foreign Affairs Steinmeier and Merkel voiced their criticism,

06:58 Erdogan immediately stated that Germany supports terrorism. This is complete bulls***!

07:02 Europe is afraid to talk back. The Turks said this, but nobody was listening,

07:06 that if we do not give them visa-free entry into the EU by June 30,

07:10 they will allow the migrants to flood freely towards Europe.

07:14 They did not receive that. After that they set another deadline: October 31.

07:18 Now it is the beginning of November, and they still did not get it. They are blackmailing Europe!

07:22 What they want? They want to participate in the war against the Islamic State.

07:26 Why would they want that? To ensure their position in the region. What is their position?

07:30 Three steps? First: they want to break up any Kurdish movements.

07:34 But the Kurds are our allies. The second step is to oust Assad from Syria.

07:40 Here we see the Turkish-Russian compromise. The third step is to

07:44 uneasily — but still representing Turkish interests —fight back against ISIS.

07:48 From Europe they demand money, which they more or less receive, visa-free entry —

07:52 if Europe give them this it’s the end — and membership of the European Union,

07:56 which is impossible to give them. This is how we are with them while the migrants go both ways,

08:00 to Italy and the situation deteriorates even further. Obviously winter is coming;

08:04 obviously more and more people will drown in the Mediterranean Sea.

08:08 And now there is a sentiment to only accept as many migrants as the countries can integrate.

08:12 We already have many times more than that. This is true most of the countries in Western Europe.

08:16 What the Hungarian government started to do years ago, to refuse to accept migrants,

08:20 now this idea is accepted and applied by almost all states.

08:24 Yes, this was very important to discuss, because people

08:28 now want to see the bigger picture in this issue.

08:32 At the beginning they just saw that a flood of people began,

08:36 while the Homeland Security Committee of the American Congress

08:40 confirmed two years ago, and as Le Figaro wrote,

08:44 that ISIS hides terrorists among the migrants.

08:48 The question is the following — probably requiring a longer exposition —

08:52 Why is Europe defenseless?

08:56 What they are talking about, which is fresh news: for the anniversary of

09:00 European Economic Community, next spring

09:04 they are planning a new EU constitution.

09:08 The plan of a federal Europe will become a reality,

09:12 maybe with a shared Minister of Finance and a shared Minister of Foreign Affairs,

09:16 and the insubordinate states will be forced to their knees.

09:20 So both these issues together, the weak Europe and the federal ambitions.

09:24 How did these two come together? —This is an interesting question,

09:28 let’s start at the beginning. You referred to the Treaty of Rome, March ’57.

09:32 OK, but this was only signed by six countries. They were, economically, very similarly developed.

09:36 Benelux, France, West Germany and Italy. Let’s leave for now the southern Italian problems.

09:42 The six countries announced economic cooperation which worked perfectly.

09:46 Not 28 countries, not political and military cooperation.

09:50 Second comment: they started to expand the European Union.

09:54 What was the goal? Getting closer to the Russian border.

09:58 Whoever it was possible to separate from the Soviet alliance system. For this reason,

10:02 for the past 25 years the European Union and NATO

10:06 Have moved around 1,000 km closer to the East. As a result they accepted countries

10:10 which were completely unsuitable for membership.

10:14 Those countries were only included with political goals. Based on professional criteria,

10:18 they could never enter into this partnership. Not to the Schengen system, not to the Eurozone.

10:22 The Greeks simply sent fake statistics; this is how they got into the Eurozone.

10:26 They lied! Yes, but the fallout of this now on the shoulders of the whole of Europe.

10:30 Next: What is Europe’s vision of the future?

10:34 One is the French vision: Europe of Nations!

10:38 Decision-making capabilities are in Prague, Budapest, Brussels and Paris.

10:42 The other one is the four-step Europe plan, which says there is village and city,

10:46 region and state, and at the top of it

10:50 the United Europe. Yes, but in the present system the majority of member states do not want this.

10:54 Anything could happen, but Brexit showed this.

10:58 Cameron went through Europe and got the maximum benefits

11:02 for the Brits, but the population

11:06 voted in a 52 to 48 ratio to exit the EU. May said Brexit is Brexit,

11:10 so the Brexit means they will leave. Let’s leave it for now, what kind of

11:14 legal scandals they are having now. Another question: Based on surveys in Europe from the 28th,

11:18 there is not a single nation that would want to accept any migrants —

11:22 mostly. —There is not a single nation that would want to hand over

11:26 any authority to Brussels, and they are afraid to hold any referendums about leaving,

11:30 because now even the Italians who want to leave the EU are the majority.

11:34 Yes, they can try to force things, but there are consequences.

11:38 Juncker — completely incompetent. Let’s say that Merkel made the top three of the EU leaders.

11:42 It’s true! But Europe had a triumvirate that led it.

11:45 Whether this is good or not is a different question.

11:48 This was Paris, London and Berlin.

11:52 At the moment when London fell out, a much weaker quality came into the picture: Rome.

11:56 From that moment Europe was severely weakened. From that moment everything plays out differently.

12:00 And they can say what they are planning for the anniversary of the Treaty of Rome,

12:04 but all those will have dire consequences.

12:08 We will continue from here, but before we do, let’s see what kind of problems

12:12 the European Union must face with the flood of migrants.

12:20 The flood of migrants not only endangers Europe from the direction of Italy,

12:24 but in March the European Union made an agreement with Turkey

12:28 to stop the migrant wave.

12:32 But putting the agreement into practice was only realized in partial results.

12:36 Since they signed it, Ankara has criticized Brussels non-stop,

12:40 and continuously threatened the Union with termination of the agreement.

12:44 This week Turkey stated that if their citizens do not receive visa-free entry soon

12:48 from the European Union, they will renounce

12:52 the migration agreement before end of the year.

12:56 Ankara stated until now they reacted

13:00 to the demands of the EU, even made suggestions,

13:04 but they are not willing to change their anti-terror laws.

13:10 About Turkey I only have one comment left — the Professor must know —

13:14 They have a biometric system they are not willing to hand over,

13:18 and — by international lawyers — they gave refugee status to Syrians.

13:22 So they become the first safe state for the refugees.

13:26 I just wanted to note this because there are numerous open questions here.

13:30 But if you let me —Just one sentence please! You are right!

13:34 Just one comment: We never talk about the fact that there are about four million

13:38 refugees in Iran. And Iran tends to those people.

13:42 Most of them are not Syrian, but from Iraq, and many of them Afghans.

13:46 There is such a chaotic situation there, which Europe knows nothing about.

13:50 And the Turks started to blackmail again.

13:54 Yes, and as you mentioned, in practical terms there is no human rights violation

13:58 That would create an outrage in US foreign affairs, because Turkey is a serious military ally.

14:02 I am talking about the level of average citizen, but that is the official viewpoint of Turkey today.

14:06 Just a minute here. They want to reintroduce capital punishment in Turkey.

14:10 Europe does not do anything about that.

14:14 Merkel does nothing, but saying they are worried about the freedom of the media.

14:18 Sorry, but there is no freedom of press in Turkey at all. This is a very hard issue,

14:22 As a university educator, I can say it, but a politician has a different set of responsibilities.

14:26 When a politician says something, there are consequences.

14:30 For a teacher at a university, there is much less in the way of negative reactions. So in other words,

14:34 Turkish policies are perfectly abusing the fact that Europe — as we discussed at the beginning —

14:38 perfectly laughable, not a global player, and even the Turks can play some

14:42 European states against each other. Yes, I have seen that on CNN, the Christiane Amanpour show,

14:48 where Erdogan said: “what can I do? The people demand executions!”

14:52 Yes once he asked his followers to ask for it… Of course!

14:56 Let’s jump to Paris, just a couple of thousand kilometers away,

15:00 We reach a location, where the migrants have settled in the heart of the city

15:04 and created a tent city for themselves. Jungle!

15:08 This get eliminated, but what will happen to these people?

15:12 They are not refugees, but economic migrants.

15:16 The French do not want them — they do not want quotas —

15:22 so what will happen to them, what will be their fate? To connect this, let me ask you;

15:26 in Germany there will be many important political gatherings,

15:30 could you connect these two topics,

15:34 if Germany has an answer for this — because there are anomalies, too —

15:38 and what can we expect in France? A new president who can change this course,

15:42 Juppé who is more Leftist — even if he tries to run as a right-wing candidate —

15:46 or maybe Sarkozy could?

15:50 Let’s start at the beginning! The migrants of the world would like to get to four possible places.

15:54 USA: rock-hard quota system — forget for now that all kinds of borders and systems can be evaded —

15:58 but protected by two oceans; north: Canada, south: Mexico. There are walls, and permission to fire.

16:02 The second target zone is Australia. They do not let a single migrant in.

16:06 It is very interesting, just got home from the region around Australia.

16:10 if anybody does not like the treatment there they can leave, nobody invited them.

16:14 It is possible to enter to Australia only with government permission. The rest will go to islands,

16:18 where life is … well, harsh. —I tried to phrase it very diplomatically.

16:22 The third target region is the rich oil states in the Middle East.

16:26 Yes, sorry, you really phrased it diplomatically, because we’re talking about places that resemble

16:30 concentration camps. So the rich Arab states in the Middle East do not accept a single soul.

16:34 There is no such thing as a political refugee. Those who can come have to work 10-12 hours daily.

16:38 At the first misstep they will be expelled, never to return. The fourth and last target

16:42 region is Europe, which can’t defend itself. For me the solution is to close the border of Europe.

16:46 If the other three can do this, why is Europe unable to?

16:50 Let’s see: You started with France, I would rather start with Germany.

16:54 For the first time in history, the conference of the Bavarian governing party, the CSU,

16:58 which is two days, and Chancellor Merkel will not attend. Why not?

17:02 Because they are opposed to each other so much on the migrant question.

17:05 What does Bavarian PM Seehofer say?

17:08 We should accept maximum of 200,000 people, Germany can’t integrate more than that.

17:12 How many arrived last year? We do not know! Somewhere between 1.1 and 1.7 million,

17:16 but around 300,000 people have just gone missing. Where they are? Good question!

17:20 What will happen to them? Another good question! When they want to deport someone,

17:24 50% of them go missing the next day. These are very difficult questions.

17:28 What was the goal of the Germans?

17:32 For many decades they wanted cheap labor, so the government and companies

17:36 went to Portugal, Spain, Italy and Yugoslavia, and

17:40 they collected a workforce for themselves. They wanted doctors,

17:44 engineers, teachers, IT professionals. Now what is happening? The people come in,

17:48 “I’m a Syrian university teacher.” Where are your papers? “I don’t have any…”

17:51 This just doesn’t work! There are strange things happening there. I really love Germany,

17:56 I lived there for a long time, visit frequently; this is just not working there.

18:00 Because of the migrant issues, Merkel lost all five regional elections!

18:04 Merkel’s popularity has hit rock bottom. The question is whether

18:08 she will run in the election next spring as candidate for the Chancellor position?

18:12 For now she is supported by one man from the opposition Green party: Winfried Kretschmann,

18:16 PM of Baden-Württemberg, who just got a huge scolding from his party for that.

18:20 Now the CSU’s conference is opening in Munich. What are the topics? One: a limit on migration;

18:24 They will jump at Merkel’s throat for that.

18:28 Second: Political Islam must not exist in Germany! Anyone who is extremist must leave Germany.

18:32 Third: They need to do everything to stay in power after next year.

18:36 They want to block the cooperation of Social Democrats, Greens,

18:40 and the successor of the Communist party.

18:44 So there are brand new directions coming into play… I am sorry Professor,

18:47 but all three point you just mentioned: “Mission Impossible!” simply will not work.

18:50 Well, yes, this is a very hard question, because the real issue is

18:54 whether the Liberal party can even get into Parliament, as they are at 6%-7% right now.

18:58 If they cannot reach the threshold, there are only two possibilities:

19:02 Either there is a leftist government, or the grand coalition remains.

19:06 If they get in… currently none of the parties want a coalition with the AfD.

19:10 They played this game in the past with the Greens, too,

19:14 which I lived through at that time. Today that will not work.

19:18 What will happen in the next election or the next one in four years, nobody can answer.

19:22 And there is no point in arguing about it. German society does not want migrants!

19:26 France: they are approaching their election.

19:30 The French Left is so weak; Hollande has zero chance of staying. He is completely incompetent.

19:34 Jungle: they built a camp at Calais,

19:38 where they built a fence.

19:42 I am sorry, but Hungary was the fifth who built a fence

19:46 and everybody attacked us for it. Four more countries built them, and

19:50 they never got any negative criticism about it.

19:54 Calais, what was the goal? The migrants wanted to cross to Great Britain.

19:58 What was the answer: They do not want any of them! What was the French response?

20:02 After one year they tore it down; then the jungle moved to Paris so, they break it up there,

20:06 and they’ll distribute the migrants all across the country into separate provinces. Yes, but

20:10 the provinces do not want to hear about it either. They have slogans like never before:

20:14 In the protest in Italy the people said: “Back to the sea with the migrants!”

20:18 Obviously that is not a solution. But the Italian plan was to save the migrants.

20:22 I agree! But do not bring them into Europe; take them back where they came from.

20:26 So what if the Libyan government protests? They cannot even go to the toilet without us!

20:30 Everything they have, they got from us. If Europe

20:34 can’t put its foot down, like the Americans, Australians and

20:38 the rich Arab countries did,

20:42 then Europe’s fate is sealed. We have half a minute left. Could you give us

20:45 a short answer to: What will be the fate of the V4 countries?

20:48 Is it possible to have other countries like Austria to join them,

20:52 if not so tightly, but as a loose alliance. Is there any chance of this Central European alliance,

20:56 or this conglomerate? Of course it has a chance. Practically, the V4 agree

21:01 on the migrant question. The V4 have a similar history and none of them has a colonial past,

21:06 so they do not have responsibility and guilt, not like most Western European countries.

21:10 The V4 now has a great opportunity if they are able

21:14 — as so rarely happened in their history — to combine their efforts

21:18 and join forces and represent their goals in a united fashion.

21:22 Anyone who chose to listen to György Nógrádi today can’t be disappointed. Thank you very much

21:26 Thank you very much. This was “Free Europe”. Next we await your attention.