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1. Alex Reyes, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 70 80 60 60 50/55 80

Background: Chalk this up as one of the most dominating performances in recent memory, regardless of however short it was. Reyes, fresh off the disabled list and fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, rattled off a 27.0-inning run between the minor and major leagues that was, simply, breathtaking. The flame-throwing right-hander fanned a whopping 44, handed out just seven walks, surrendered only seven hits, and did not allow a run of any kind. Reyes, of course, began his rapid rise from relative obscurity as soon as he toed a rubber for the Johnson City Cardinals as an 18-year-old in 2013. And he continued to turn heads – as well as break bats – with every leap up the minor league ladder. He fanned 137 in only 109.1 innings as a 19-year-old in the Midwest League. The New Jersey native racked up a whopping 151 punch outs in 101.1 innings of work the following year, most of which was spent with Palm Beach and Springfield. He split the 2016 season dominating the competition for Memphis and St. Louis. And then his elbow gave out and he missed the entire 2017 season. For his career, Reyes is averaging 12.4 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in 357.1 minor league innings. And he’s recorded a 54-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 50.0 major league innings to go along with a barely-there 1.44 ERA.

Analysis: Well, the fastball’s still a plus-plus offering. Reyes’ heater was sitting in the mid- to upper-90s in his first – and only – start with the Memphis Red Birds last season. And it hovered around 95 mph during his time with St. Louis in 2018 as well. Reyes also mixes in a lethal straight change with fade, generating tremendous tumble down-and-out of the zone, and a wipeout slider sitting in the high 80s. But it’s his high-RPM’d hellacious curveball that’s become his best secondary weapon. Simply put, it’s haunting. As always, Reyes shows clean, repeatable mechanics and his control seemingly improved despite the long injury layoff. He was consistently not only around the plate, but missing off the dish, not on it – though with a power-packed repertoire like this, it doesn’t really matter. Legitimate, as always, front-of-the-rotation caliber potential just waiting to be unleashed up the big leagues for an extended period.

Ceiling: 6.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2016

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2. Nolan Gorman, 3B

Hit Power SB Field Overall 40/45 60/70 30 50/55 65+

Background: Considered the best power bat in last year’s draft crop. Gorman’s list of accolades extends well beyond becoming the Cardinals’ top pick in the 2018 draft. The lefty-swinging third baseman: originally committed to attend the University of Arizona early in his freshman season; he won the MLB High School Home Run Derby following his junior year and then won the Under Armour All-America Homerun Derby; and just a few months later he starred for on the 18U Team USA team, going 2-for-3 in the Gold Medal winning game. Gorman, the 19th overall pick last June, signed for $3,231,700 – the recommended slot bonus. St. Louis sent the young slugger to the Appalachian League to begin his career. And it looked like Godzilla wreaking havoc on a small town. In 38 games with Johnson City, the 6-foot-1, 210-pound slugger belted out 10 doubles, one triple, and 11 homeruns en route to hitting .350/.443/.664. His batted cooled considerably, though, after a late-season promotion up to the Midwest League; he hit .202/.280/.426 in 25 games with the Chiefs.

Analysis: Let’s just jump right into it. Consider the following:

Since 2006, there have been 103 different 18-year-old hitters to receive at least 150 plate appearances in the Appalachian League. Gorman’s 183 wRC+ mark leads them all.

Let’s continue…

During that time frame only two 18-year-old bats posted at least a 160 wRC+ with a double-digit walk rate and a whiff rate below 24%: former top prospect Travis Snider, who batted .244/.311/.399 in 630 big league games, and – of course – Nolan Gorman.

The concern with Gorman heading into the draft was whether he’d make consistent enough contact to fully take advantage of his plus-plus power potential. And he helped alleviate some of those concerns with his performance in the Appalachian League, though he did punch out in more than a third of his plate appearances in Low Class A. Gorman also struggled against left-handers as well, batting .250/.291/.462 against them in a small sample size. Strong, quick-snapping wrists help generate easy bat speed. . A year into his pro career and I’d peg his ceiling at .250/.340/.540.

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021/2022

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3. Elehuris Montero, 3B

Hit Power SB Field Overall 55/60 50/60 30 50 65

Background: Regardless of which metric you prefer, Weighted Runs Created Plus or Deserved Runs Created Plus, there’s one thing that they both agree upon: the hulking third baseman turned in one helluva performance in 2018. After spending two full seasons mostly struggling with the club’s foreign rookie league affiliate, Montero, who batted a combined .256/.338/.346 in the Dominican Summer League as a young teenager, blossomed into a solid prospect upon his arrival stateside two years ago. In 52 games in the Gulf Coast League, Montero slugged a healthy .277/.370/.468 with 16 doubles, one triple, and five homeruns. St. Louis took the aggressive approach with Montero and pushed him all the way up to the Midwest League for the 2018 season. And the rest, as they say, is history. Montero came out swinging a hot stick from the start, going 13-for-his-first-31, and hardly slowed as the season progressed. And that continued after a move to the Florida State League as well. When the dust settled, the 6-foot-3, 195-pound third baseman had finished with an impressive .315/.371/.504 tripe-slash line, belting out a whopping 37 doubles, three triples, and 16 homeruns.

Analysis: Consider the following:

Since 2006, only three 19-year-old hitters to post a wRC+ total between 152 and 162 with a sub-22% strikeout rate in the Midwest League (min. 300 PA): Eloy Jimenez, widely recognized as a Top 10 prospect in all of baseball, Corey Seager, who owns a 133 wRC+ mark in the big leagues, and – of course – Elehuris Montero.

Remember when your mom used to always warn you that, “You’re only as good as the company you keep.” Well, the same thing applies for Montero, who’s quickly becoming a budding star. Montero shows a nice-and-easy approach at the plate that generates impressive bat speed, though his swing is more geared towards scorching line drives than hitting towering fly balls. Only entering his age-20 season, Montero’s just scratching the surface of what could eventually turn into plus-power, perhaps peaking in the 25-homer territory. He shows decent patience at the plate that may peak slightly better than average with phenomenal bat-to-ball skills as well. Defensively speaking, it looks like he may be able to stay at the hot corner, only further increasing his value. At maturity Montero looks like a bonafide middle-of-the-lineup thumper capable of putting together a .280/.340/.500 triple-slash line, essentially putting him in the Eduardo Escobar/Eugenio Suarez camp.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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4. Malcom Nunez, 3B

Hit Power SB Field Overall 40/60 50/60 30 45 60

Background: Due to previously exceeding their bonus pool the Cardinals couldn’t offer more than $300,000 to Nunez last summer, but it was enough to convince the Cuban import to sign with the storied franchise. Unlike the majority of other international free agents, Nunez stepped right into professional ball in the days immediately after his contract was finalized. Nunez, whom the club had been scouting for several years, looked like the second coming of Ted Williams in his debut in the Dominican Summer League, battering the inferior competition to the tune of .415/.497/.774 with 16 doubles, two triples, and 13 homeruns to go along with a 29-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 44 games. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a mindboggling 138% and 120%, respectively.

Analysis: Incredible bat speed generated through his massive forearms and tree trunk-like legs. Nunez looks like a grown man despite only entering his age-18 season. Plus skills sprinkled across the board – specially the bat and prodigious power potential – with a solid approach at the plate. Physically, he looks like a young Bo Jackson. I’d be surprised if he sticks at the hot corner, but the bat/power potential plays anywhere. On any planet. He’s stiff and robotic and defense, lacking fluidity and agility. His hands look like concrete too. It’s very likely we’ll be talking about him in a year like we are about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr.– though a shift across the diamond to first base is very distinct likelihood.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2022

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5. Lane Thomas, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50 55 50 50 55

Background: Heading down the path of bust-dom. Originally drafted by the Blue Jays in the fifth round of the 2014 draft and handed three-quarters of a million dollars, Thomas was abysmal until the Cardinals swopped in and did the thing that the organization does – whatever it is – and resurrected the former Bonus Baby’s career. Last season Thomas, who was acquired for international bonus money, turned in his finest season to date – by a wide margin, at the top two levels of the minor leagues. In 132 games between Springfield and Memphis, Thomas slugged a healthy .264/.333/.489 while setting career highs in doubles (23) and homeruns (27) while adding in six triples and 17 stolen bases. His overall production for the year, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 20%. Not too shabby for a buy-low prospect.

Analysis: Now it’s easy to see what attracted the Blue Jays’ attention in the draft five years ago. Thomas went from a no-hit prospect into one flashing four tools within a season’s time. He showed above-average power and speed with a solid bat and a glove that’s likely to stay in center field. It’s clear to see some of the mechanical changes the organization has made in Thomas’ stance at the plate: he’s more upright now with less bend in his lower half; his hands are quieter; and his bat path shows a bit more loft. There’s some potential starting caliber value to be had here. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, only four 22-year-old hitters posted a 118 to 128 wRC+ mark in Texas League (min. 300 PA): Ryan O’Hearn, Odubel Herrera, Paul DeJong, and Kurt Suzuki. Ignoring O’Hearn’s brief Ruthian debut last season, here are the other career wRC+ totals: 104 (Herrera), 111 (DeJong), and 90 (Suzuki).

Thomas may be one of the more underrated prospects in the game.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021/2022

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6. Dakota Hudson, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 60 50 55 N/A 50 50

Background: From a little used reliever across his first two seasons at Mississippi State University to a dominant, eventual first round selection by the end of his junior campaign. Hudson racked up a 115 punch outs against just 35 walks en route to being named the 34th overall pick three years ago. St. Louis’ brass aggressively challenged the 6-foot-5, 215-pound right-hander by pushing him straight up to the Texas League two years ago – an assignment that lasted just 18 starts before he headed up to the PCL for a seven-game cameo. Hudson returned to Memphis for the start of his third professional season and spent the second half of the year working out of St. Louis’ bullpen. He finished his time with the Red Birds with 87 strikeouts and only 38 walks in 111.2 innings of work. He also compiled a 19-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 27.1 innings with the Cardinals as well.

Analysis: Here’s a little snippet from Hudson’s pre-draft analysis three years ago:

“[He] doesn’t have true ace material, but he should settle in nicely as a #2/#3-type arm. And one that could potentially move quickly through the minor leagues.”

Hudson’s repertoire is – truthfully – a bit underwhelming. His fastball was sitting in the low-90s as a starting pitcher and a few ticks higher working out of the Cards’ pen. His curveball, a tightly-spun 12-6 offering, is average. And his upper-80s/low-90s slider/cutter has become his go-to bread-and-butter offering. It’s a late moving, above-average pitch. Reports indicate he’ll mix in a changeup as well, but I didn’t see one in a couple Class AAA starts and he didn’t throw one during his big league debut as well. Hudson also battled some control yips down the stretch in St. Louis as well – he walked at least one batted in nine of his final 12 appearances – but it should bounce back moving forward. If St. Louis decides to keep Hudson in the pen, he’ll likely slide into an eighth-inning combo role with newly signed Andrew Miller. As a starter he looks like a capable #4, nothing more. One final thought: during his time in St. Louis the RPMs on his slider/cutter and curveball hovered around the league average.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2018

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7. Andrew Knizner, C

Hit Power SB Field Overall 55 40 30 50 50

Background: The further development of Knizner, the club’s seventh round pick in 2016, likely helped facilitate the inclusion of Carson Kelly, considered the long-time heir apparent to Yadier Molina’s throne, as part of the package sent to the Diamondbacks to get Paul Goldschmidt. Knizner, a sweet-swinging backstop, turned a lot of heads after a stellar showing in 2017, which included an aggressive – and successful – promotion from Low Class A all the way to the Texas League; he finished the year with an aggregate .302/.349/.471. The former Tar Heel maintained status quo in his return to Class AA, as well as a late-season promotion up to the PCL. The 6-foot-1, 200-pound catcher batted .313/.368/.430 with 18 doubles and seven homeruns in 94 combined games.

Analysis: There are very few teams, if any, that can consistently find talent well beyond the opening round of the draft as well as the St. Louis Cardinals. And Knizner, the 226th overall player chosen three years ago, is just the latest example. A hit-tool-driven prospect with a solid glove behind the dish, Knizner is won’t offer much in term of power or patience but there definite starting qualities to be had. He controls the running game and moves well behind the plate. And he shows a short, slashing swing at the plate with solid bat-to-ball skills. His swing doesn’t create much loft, so homeruns will be a rarity for him though. Assuming any late-offseason acquisition – either through a trade or free agency – Knizner’s likely heading into Spring Training as the club’s top backup option.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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Hit Power SB Field Overall 45/50 45/55 35 55 55+

Background: I’ve probably written more about Williams at this point than nearly everyone outside his extended family. A former second round pick all the way back in 2013, Arizona shipped him off to Tampa Bay as part of the Jeremy Hellickson swap following the 2014 season. St. Louis acquired the muscular corner outfielder from the Rays last season – along with Genesis Cabrera and Roel Ramirez – in exchange for disgruntled outfielder Tommy Pham. Williams, fresh off of a ridiculously dominant showing in Class AA in which he slugged .301/.364/.489, continued his maddeningly inconsistent ways at the plate as his production faltered in a move up to Class AAA last season. In 115 games between both organizations’ Class AAA affiliates, the 6-foot-2, 215-pound outfielder batted a disappointingly paltry .252/.307/.379 with 21 doubles and 11 homeruns to go along with four stolen bases.

Analysis: Williams – at brief, fleeting glimpses – looks a like a budding star. And at other points he looks like a future Quad-A bat. Last season he happened to fall into the latter category. The former second round pick’s never been able to fully tap into his above-average power potential thanks to a swing that puts the ball on the ground way too frequently. When he does elevate it, though, he shows impressive opposite field pop. The strides he made with his patience at the dish in 2017 all but evaporated last season. Williams is an above-average defender in either corner outfield position. Given the work the organization did by resurrecting Lane Thomas’ career trajectory, I wouldn’t be surprised to see St. Louis sprinkle the same magic dust over Williams. He’s a boom or bust type of guy: either he figures it out and develops into an above-average outfielder or he doesn’t and languishes in the upper minors for the rest of his career.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2018

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9. Dylan Carlson, OF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 45/50 40/50 35 50 45+

Background: Taken in the back end of the first round three years ago. Carlson, a lanky, projectable outfielder from Elk Grove High School, continued to progress despite the club’s aggressive development plan. Carlson, the 33rd overall pick, turned in a solid, though far from notable debut in the Gulf Coast League, hitting .251/.313/.404. St. Louis sent the then-18-year-old up to the Midwest League where his production – more or less – maintained status quo; in 115 games with Peoria, the 6-foot-3, 195-pound outfielder batted .240/.342/.347. And then after 13 games back in the Midwest League at the start of 2018, Carlson was assigned to Palm Beach for the remainder of the year. In 99 games with the club’s High Class A affiliate Carlson batted .247/.345/.386 with 19 doubles, three triples, and nine homeruns. His overall production in the Florida State League, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by 12% and 15%, respectively.

Analysis: A really intriguing projection-over-production type prospect. Carlson’s approach at the plate is similar to a young Jesse Winker, Cincinnati’s young star outfielder. The Elk Grove High School product shows an above-average eye at the plate with strong bat-to-ball skills with a line-drive slashing swing. His numbers have been slowly trending upward the past couple of seasons, though an immediate breakout isn’t likely as he’s probably headed to the minors’ toughest challenge, Class AA. He could, though, be one of 2020’s biggest risers. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2018 there were only four 19-year-old bats that met the following criteria in the Florida State League (min. 300 PA): 107 to 117 wRC+ total and a sub-20.0% strikeout rate. Those four hitters: Orlando Arcia, Starlin Castro, Cristian Pache, and – of course – Dylan Carlson. Arcia was a solid shortstop before swinging a wet noodle at the dish last season. Castro owns a career 97 wRC+ mark in the big leagues, and Pache has developed into one of the better prospects in the game.

Carlson could wind up being a lite version of Jesse Winker, peaking around .270/.340/.415.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0–win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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10. Griffin Roberts, RHP

FB SL CH Control Overall 55 65 N/A 40/45 45+

Background: Remember the old saying about making a good first impression? Yeah, Roberts never learned that growing up. He got popped – a second time – for a drug of abuse, which he admitted was cannabis, and subsequently suspended 50 games without pay. Oops… A rare 22-year-old junior thanks to his June 13th birthday. Roberts, a well-built 6-foot-3, 226-pound right-hander, was one of the biggest surprises of the 2018 season. Used primarily as a backend reliever his first two collegiate seasons, Roberts made the transition from erratic closer to Wake Forest’s ace. A Midlothian, Virginia native, Roberts made 18 appearances (17 relief appearances and one start) during his freshman season for Manager Tom Walter, throwing just 15.2 innings while recording an atrocious 18-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The hard-throwing right-hander spent the following summer working as a starter for the Amsterdam Mohawks in the Perfect Game League, dominating to the tune of 41 strikeouts and just 15 free passes in 35.0 innings of work. Roberts moved into the closer’s job in 2017, fanning a ridiculous 80 hitters while handing out 32 free passes. He finished the school year with a tidy 2.15 ERA and eight saves. And, once again, he spent the summer working as a full-time starting pitcher. This time, though, it was in the premier Cape Cod League. Throwing a tick over 32 innings for the Wareham Gatemen, he finished tied with Ryan Rolison with the sixth most punch outs in the league (35). Last season Roberts spearheaded the Demon Deacons’ pitching staff by pacing the club in innings pitched (96.2) and strikeouts (130) to go along with five wins, trailing Colin Peluse for the team lead. St. Louis grabbed the broad-shoulder hurler in the first round, 43rd overall, and signed him to a deal worth $1,664,200. He made a couple brief appearances in the Gulf Coast and Florida State Leagues.

Analysis: Here’s what I wrote about the talented, frustrating right-hander heading into the 2018 draft:

The numbers themselves are noteworthy enough (though May 20th):

Strikeouts – tied with potential #1 overall pick Casey Mize for the fourth most among all Division I pitchers

Strikeouts Per Nine Innings – his 12.49 K/9 currently ranks as the 18th best among all DI hurlers

In fact, with respect to his production through his first 12 starts, consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2017, only five ACC (Atlantic Coast Conference) pitchers have averaged at least 12 strikeouts per nine innings (75 IP): J.B. Bukauskas, Danny Hultzen, Brendan McKay, Carlos Rodon, and Marcus Stroman.

That’s some impressive company to keep: each of the five arms being selected in the first round and three of the – Hultzen, McKay, and Rodon – were top five picks. The great differentiator between Roberts and the group: control. Bukauskas, the 15th overall pick by the Astros last June, sported the worst walk rate at 3.33 BB/9. Roberts, on the other hand, is [showing] a bloated 3.72 BB/9. The Demon Deacon showcases an above-average fastball and a wipeout, hard-biting slider which easily flashes plus. But, mechanically speaking, he’s a max-effort guy. Combine that with some problematic control – at best – and it’s not too difficult to see Roberts sliding into a relief role in the professional ranks. It would behoove the drafting team to allow Roberts to continue to develop as a starter given his lack of starting experience, but – again – I wouldn’t hold out much hope. He could be a shut-‘em-down backend arm though, something along the lines of a Cody Allen. “

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021/2022

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.