On Wednesday evening, Sakic dealt oft maligned rearguard Stefan Elliott to Arizona for Brandon Gormley, another young defensive prospect. This move doesn’t come as a shock to many; Elliott has struggled to establish himself at the NHL level, and was one of two Avalanche RFAs who hadn’t signed a qualifying offer this summer (Freddie Hamilton being the other).

Context of Trade

Elliott, originally selected 49th overall at the 2009 NHL Draft, was a much heralded prospect during the Greg Sherman era. Elliott was able to exit the defensive zone with ease, could marshal a power play, and had a deadly wrist shot from the point. He’s been a consistent offensive force in both the WHL and AHL, but a combination of defensive errors, poor “puck luck”, and the emergence of Tyson Barrie have kept him from earning a permanent spot in the Avalanche line-up.

Undeniably an impactful player from a shot generation perspective, Elliott has been continually passed over since Joe Sakic and Patrick Roy took the helm two summers ago. At times, one has certainly gotten the sense that Sakic and Roy wish to move on from a player left over from a previous era of drafting, a theory that’s been at least partially confirmed by Elliott’s voyages through waivers. Enter Brandon Gormley.

Gormley was selected 13th overall in the 2010 NHL Draft by the Coyotes, following a standout year with the Moncton Wildcats in which he recorded 60 points in a combined 79 regular season and playoff games, helping the Wildcats to the Memorial Cup along the way. Going into the draft Gormley was ranked as the 4th best prospect by several scouting bureaus and media members, including Bob McKenzie’s TSN outfit. However, on draft day defensemen such as Gormley and Cam Fowler slid down the board, to the surprise of many.

Gormley has produced offense and been successful at every level, which begs the question: Why were the Coyotes so willing to part with him? Coyotes blog “Five For Howling” provided a few of the answers I was looking for. From the sounds of it, Gormley’s jump to the NHL didn’t go as smoothly as one might hope. Gormley had injury issues, didn’t mesh well with Dave Tippett’s coaching style, and was stuck behind a number of similar, more developed prospects on a Coyotes team that had spent 5 of their previous 10 first round picks on defensemen. In fact, rumour has it that Gormley was openly unhappy with circumstances in Phoenix. So is this merely a change of scenery for both players involved in the trade?

Not exactly, but I’ll get to that in just a bit.

Scouting Report

In order to gain some sense of how a player’s development has progressed, I often find it helpful to read through their scouting reports chronologically. In this case, we’ll take a look at Gormley solely from the perspective of ESPN’s Corey Pronman, for consistency’s sake. While I don’t always agree with Pronman’s opinions, it certainly can’t be argued that Pronman is one of hockey’s foremost prospect experts, and his write-ups and analysis are top notch.

I’m having difficulty locating Pronman’s 2010 Draft Rankings, but here’s his take on Gormley circa August 2011;

The Good: Gormley regularly gets praise across scouting circles for his hockey sense, as he’s an incredibly smart and poised player from the back-end. In fact, when asked about Gormley, one NHL executive used the word “smart” about every third word in a lengthy scouting report when describing him. He has a panic threshold like few in the prospect world and has the look of a player who plays the game half-asleep but yet is several steps ahead of his competition. Gormley rarely turns the puck over and is a very dependent in moving the puck out of his zone. He doesn’t try to go for the highlight reel play much but he can and will make mid-distance passes if the play is there. He moves well in all four directions, and while he doesn’t have a dangerous top gear, he can stay with faster forwards going backwards just fine. Gormley was a two-way force for Moncton, playing over 30 minutes a night due to the coach’s confidence in his high-end ability at both ends of the rink, and he played those minutes despite suffering several notable injuries throughout the season. He’s well-conditioned and even by the time the end of the season came around when he played a stint in the AHL he was still performing at the same desirable performance level. The Coyotes won’t rush him, but his game is advanced enough right now to potentially play significant NHL minutes in 2011-12. The Bad: He has to physically grow a lot and while he’s progressed from last year when he was very physically immature, another year of seasoning could do him some good before his NHL debut. Gormley also doesn’t really use his body, although it doesn’t deter much from his defensive value. Projection: An average first pairing defenseman who safely projects as a below-average first pairing defender.

Pronman on Gormley, last summer;

There are some concerns about the fact that Gormley hasn’t graduated to the NHL yet, and he may be tailing off as a prospect. I think that’s a reasonable issue to bring up, but for me, the lack of graduation is more about Arizona’s depth chart as opposed to the player — he scored 36 points in 54 games for the Coyotes’ AHL affiliate this past season. Praise for Gormley’s hockey IQ is echoed by anyone who has seen him play. He’s a quality two-way defenseman who has continued to improve on the physical components of the game. However, I will echo the common concern that this upcoming season has to be the one in which Gormley secures a full-time NHL gig.

And here’s what Pronman had to say about Gormley following Wednesday’s trade;

A former not just good, but elite prospect, has seen his stock plummet since turning pro. In evaluations, a critical turning point for Canadian players is that jump from Major Junior to the pros. In a matter of months to a year, a so-so prospect can become a very good one, and a great one can quickly underwhelm by “proving the concept” so to speak, that they can or can’t play in a top professional league. Gormley’s strength as a U20 was his hockey sense, and his ability to control a game at both ends. As a pro, he’s struggled with the physicality as well as the speed of the game, often getting exposed with outside speed, but also decision making unlike his Junior incarnation. He’s an example of many that have happened and many more to come, of the extreme variance in prospect development, and why you need to constantly re-evaluate players year to year. That being said, while he longer is anywhere [sic] in the same realm of prospect as the Gormley from a few years ago, his vision, creativity, and positional play can still possibly get him a full-time NHL job. Maybe he can turn things around and elevate himself, crazier things have happened.

In short, Gormley still projects to be an NHL-level defender, he just hasn’t had much of a shot yet. Although some aspects of his stalled development are worrying, the tools that made him so highly regarded in the first place are still there in spades.

Brandon Gormley: A Diamond in the Rough?

As mentioned earlier, Brandon Gormley has experienced success at every level he’s played at. Following his whirlwind draft season, Gormley returned to the Moncton Wildcats and tallied 47 points in 48 regular season games. In 2011-2012, Gormley put up another 27 points in 26 games for the Wildcats, helped Canada to a bronze at the World Juniors, then was traded to the Shawinigan Cataractes and led them to a Memorial Cup, tallying 9 points in 6 tournament games. A pretty tidy junior career, all things considered. Reports out of Portland have been positive as well, with Gormley averaging 0.52 PPG over the previous three seasons, while playing demanding minutes on an abysmal Portland team.

It’s difficult to glean anything of significance from Gormley’s stats at the NHL level, given that he’s only played 32 games over the previous two seasons. Still, he has shown some promising progress since his debut. His CF%Rel last season was 1.12, up from -8.75 in 2013-2014, and his GAR improved similarly from -0.11 to 0.75. Given that 5 of the Avalanche’s 7 defensive regulars performed at a sub-replacement level last season, it’s hard not to be optimistic. However, Gormley’s 2014-2015 CPM was a lackluster -5.74, which is slightly concerning.

Conclusions

At the end of the day, this is a no-lose situation for the Avalanche. Sakic was able to convert a player he’d previously waived for a smart, young defenseman with top 4 upside. If Elliott flourishes in Arizona while Gormley stagnates, Sakic will be lambasted, but it appears to be a savvy move at this point in time. Gormley is younger than Elliott, has a first-round pedigree, and by all accounts is still on-track to be an NHL regular, even if he doesn’t realize the full extent of his potential. Elliott has be stagnating in the AHL for a number of seasons, and it was time for both parties to move on. The Coyotes fan base also seems fairly irate at the loss of Gormley, which obviously isn’t something you base an opinion on, but sweetens the pot nonetheless. A large part of the reason they’re upset is that if Coyotes GM Don Maloney really wanted Elliott, then he could have had him for nothing last season, and it’s tough to argue with that logic. Good on Sakic for making the best of a disadvantageous situation.

Additionally, Roy’s familiarity with Gormley should not be discounted. Roy coached the Remparts during the years that Gormley starred in the Q, and if the Avs were after Gormley, you can bet that Roy had a substantial amount of input.

I would be quite surprised if Gormley didn’t make the Avalanche this fall. In my mind, the Avs’ defensive depth chart going into camp looks something like this;

1. Erik Johnson

2. Francois Beauchemin

3. Tyson Barrie

4. Nikita Zadorov

5. Brandon Gormley

6. Zach Redmond

7. Brad Stuart

8. Nick Holden

9. Nate Guenin

10. Duncan Siemens

11. Chris Bigras

12. Mason Geertsen

Brad Stuart is a lock to make the team, so Gormley will most likely be competing with Redmond, Holden, Guenin and Siemens for his spot. However, Gormley is no longer waiver-exempt and it would be foolish for the Avs to risk losing him to another team for nothing, so don’t expect to see him bouncing back and forth between the AHL and the big club. It’s NHL or bust for young Gormley. In a vacuum, I would be thrilled to see him paired with a dynamic skater like Barrie, but we’ll have to wait until camp to see how Roy intends to structure his defensive corps. Follow me on Twitter for more Avalanche insights as we approach the beginning of the 2015-2016 NHL Season!

Trade Grade: B+