SEATTLE — An influential modeling institute is forecasting specific reopening dates for states shut down to slow the spread of the coronavirus through their populations. The recommendations are based on projections of when each state’s infections will drop below one per 1 million people.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation says Hawaii, Montana, Vermont and West Virginia could open by May 4, if they restrict large gatherings, test widely and quarantine the contacts of people who test positive.