“You deserve to know what I know when you’re making decisions for yourself, family and community,” a sombre Premier Doug Ford told Ontarians on Thursday. And on Friday Peter Donnelly, president and CEO of Public Health Ontario, finally gave us a glimpse of what Queen’s Park is planning for. The mind floats off in all directions in an information vacuum, so it may shock as many people as it relieves.

With current anti-coronavirus measures in place, Queen’s Park is contemplating 80,000 cases of COVID-19 by April 30, causing 1,600 deaths. All told, Donnelly said, with public health measures implemented, the final death toll in the province could be anywhere between 3,000 and 15,000, over 18 to 24 months.

He had no answer as to when along that timeline some semblance of normalcy might return. That’s frustrating, but understandable: North America is still in the early days of this battle. And the long term is clearly not where public health officials need to be focusing right now. To wit: Donnelly presented a graph titled “Ontario ICU capacity for COVID-19.” Even the best-case scenario of extra beds needed is threatening a line marked “known expansion capacity.” The worst-case scenario is simply horrifying.

“A bit scared” is probably a good place for Ontarians and Canadians to be right now. A government that’s willing to treat its citizens like grown-ups, to level with them about its best guess as to what we’re facing, reduces the risks of panic, complacency and despair all at the same time. This is the genius of transparency. “It’ll be nice outside this weekend, but please stay home,” Ford said at his Friday press conference. “Help us write an ending to this story that future generations will look back on and be proud of.”

The premier has attracted much praise for his performance during this crisis, and it is deserved. His last misstep was advising families to head off on March Break as planned, viruses be damned, but that might as well have been 100 years ago. We were all clutching at optimism. Former premier Kathleen Wynne, who clearly understands Ford, graciously said she heard a man “trying to calm the waters… out of the goodness of his heart.”

Since then Ford has struck the right tone: often visibly alarmed, but calm, scripted and plain of speech. He has been gracious to everyone on the right side of the fight, from doctors and nurses to supermarket clerks and frantic, unemployed people stuck at home, to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, to his fellow premiers of all political stripes, and even to journalists. And he has been galvanizingly withering to those on the wrong side, most notably a few price-gouging businesses who have been helpful enough to offer themselves up as common enemies.

The Trump comparisons were always absurd

More than a few people have remarked: “Wasn’t this guy supposed to be Canada’s Donald Trump?”

Indeed, once upon a time, those comparisons flew thick and fast. But they were always absurd — a toxic by-product of the Canadian media’s mortifying obsession with all things American. No First World politician is remotely like Donald Trump. I have filed many thousands of words over the past decade on what I view as Doug Ford’s inadequacies as a politician, and it would never have occurred to me to compare him to such a transparently awful president.

Ford, too, has levelled many vastly over-the-top accusations against his opponents. But he has basically set them all aside now. While federal Conservatives continue battling federal Liberals on the carbon tax file, Ford has refused to discuss it and happily applauds the feds’ anti-coronavirus efforts. Where once Ford railed at his media critics, now he praises their efforts covering the crisis and informing Ontarians. His relatively plain talk is noticeably more reassuring than the messaging some other Canadian heads of government, who fancy themselves far more polished, are dishing out — Trudeau in particular.

None of that surprises me. But if it surprises a lot of other people, then perhaps that’s a silver lining waiting to be discovered when this crisis is over. So much of Canadian politics is melodrama: angels battling demons, supposedly for the souls of mankind. In fact, the vast majority of combatants are reasonable people who hope for nothing bu9t the best for their constituents and the country as a whole. It shows, right now. Let’s remember that.

• Email: cselley@nationalpost.com | Twitter: cselley