This map could be a lot less red after November

We’re less than a week away from the Midterm elections, so it’s time to get excited! Given that we are in the final five days, it’s time to begin wrapping up all the analysis that I have done this election season and to give some final condensed projections about election night. Back in the summer, I did extensive coverage about state legislatures and today I am here to give the condensed finale.

Projected Flips

- New York Senate: The GOP holds a 1 seat majority in a blue state thanks to a single turncoat Democrat and lots of ancestral ticket splitting. However, a plethora of open seats give Democrats a ton of opportunities and they are virtually assured to take back control of the state’s upper chamber. Thus, it wouldn’t shock me if Democrats gain more than 5 seats in the chamber to take a decisive majority.

- Colorado Senate : Republicans have a 1 seat majority and there are just two good pickup opportunities for Democrats and both have GOP incumbents. However, they are in suburban Denver, the same place that US Rep. Mike Coffman (R) looks to be essentially finished off. If Coffman is going down with the ship, it’s not hard to see how at least one, if not both, of these incumbents lose and Dems take control.

- Maine Senate: 1 seat majority. Lots of Dem opportunities. It’s probably gonna flip. Moving on.

Tilting flips

These are chambers where if I had to pick a side to win, I would feel comfortable picking the opposition party, but I am not nearly certain enough to project a flip.

- Michigan House : Republicans are facing increasingly dire headwinds in the Wolverine State, especially in suburban Detroit, where they could lose as many as 9 seats, the amount needed to lose control of the chamber, in just that region. Things are pretty bad in the rest of the state too, with a poll pegging Democratic challengers up big in two districts in Kalamazoo and Battle Creek, and Team Blue has strong candidates in places like Monroe, Mount Pleasant, Muskegon, Traverse City, Ludington, Benton Harbor, and Menominee. With Republicans increasingly worried about huge blowouts at the top of the ticket, the down-ballot wave seems more probable than not to sweep Dems into power here.

- New Hampshire House: I don’t have any specific analysis because of its convoluted, multi-member district system. However, because of that, it is the most reactionary chamber in the nation, swinging violently with any kind of change in the national winds. It is rare that the New Hampshire lower chamber does not flip with a wave and assuming Democrats win nationally by a number akin to what they’re leading by in the generic ballot, given history, it is reasonable to expect them to take this chamber.

- Minnesota House: The GOP maintains a 77-57 majority in the lower chamber of Minnesota, with Democrats needing 11 flips to take over. A lot of key GOP-held seats are in the Twin Cities suburbs, which creates a good opportunity for a chamber flip, so long as Democrats don’t get massacred outstate. Given how bad the poll numbers are for US Reps. Erik Paulsen (MN-03) and Jason Lewis (MN-02) in the suburban Twin Cities, it seems rather likely that things are also pretty bad for the down ballot Republicans. I think Team Blue are favorites to win control but we’ll see.

Tossups

- Michigan Senate: Republicans hold a 27-11 edge but due to a strict term limit law that will leave 2/3 of the State Senate without incumbents for the November elections, Democrats have a real opportunity to make significant inroads. Control of the chamber likely rests on how bad things are for Republicans in suburban areas.

- Wisconsin Senate : Democrats need to flip two seats and protect their own seats. The D-held seats in question are SD-1, SD-25, and SD-31 and Democrats seem favored to hold onto those. The question is whether they can flip two of SD-5, SD-17, and SD-19.

- Florida Senate: Democrats are in a 24-16 deficit, meaning they need a 4 seat gain + the Governorship to snag control. No Democratically held seat is in danger, while SD-8, SD-16, SD-18, SD-22, and SD-36 are the most closely contested GOP-held seats. SD-20, SD-23, SD-24, and SD-25 are also on the peripheral as key races in the Sunshine State.

- New Hampshire Senate: New Hampshire’s Senate is also up in the air, with a 14-10 Republican edge. Democrats need three seats to take a majority and there are a lot of seats in play. Republican-held seats 2, 7, 8, 9, 12, and 24 are worth watching, while Democratically-held SD-1 is in play due to a scandal. That chamber is a pure tossup.

- Iowa House : Lastly, in the Hawkeye state, Republicans control the lower chamber 59-41, but with every seat up for grabs, Democrats are hoping a blue wave rips across the heartland thanks to President Trump’s low approval rating in the state. There are a multitude of seats in play, mostly all Republican-held, and I would recommend this Bleeding Heartland article for more coverage in addition to my own write-up of the chamber from back in June.

Chambers with Republican advantages

- Arizona House: Arizona’s House of Representatives has multi-member districts and it is currently a 35-25 Republican majority, meaning 6 is the magic number for the Dems here. It’s tough to forecast exactly what’s going to happen in these crowded, multi-member elections (like in New Hampshire), though districts 6, 8, 10, 17, 18, and 28 are the races I would watch in particular. The GOP is favored to hang on but it’s not at all implausible that this chamber could flip.

- Arizona Senate: Republicans are up 17-13 in the state’s upper chamber, but there are some real opportunities for Democrats. In particular SD-6, SD-21, and SD-28 are up for grabs, while SD-17 and SD-20 are on the outside realm of flip possibilities. Republicans are still favored to retain control but this state could see a change of power if Democrats have a good night.

- Pennsylvania House: This is a behemoth of a chamber, with Republicans holding a 121-82 advantage going into November, meaning Democrats need to flip 20 seats to snag the majority. The bad news is that is a ton of seats. The good news is there are a lot of opportunities in the Philadelphia suburbs, a place that Team Blue will likely do quite well in at the Congressional level. I fully expect Dems to make significant gains, probably in the double digits, but 20 is a steep number and so I give the GOP the edge, though a big wave could narrowly wash away the Republican majority.

Tsunami Territory

- North Carolina House: Both chambers of NC’s legislature were redrawn after a court ordered the legislature to redraw the map after the old one was struck down due to it being an illegal racial gerrymander. But make no mistake: while Democrats are guaranteed a few seats thanks to the new map, this is nearly as brutal of a gerrymander as before. Still, if a blue tsunami comes, it could topple the GOP edge in the lower chamber of North Carolina, where Dems will need a 16 seat gain to take control. The most likely scenario is Team Blue gaining in the high single digits, but this is on the radar.

- North Carolina Senate: Similar story in the upper chamber. A new map guarantees a few Dem pickups, but the path to the majority is quite hard, as Democrats need a net gain of 11 seats to win control. Once again, mid-single digits is most likely, but if a huge wave comes, we could see a big upset here.

- Montana House: Big Sky Country is one of those weird areas that votes Republican most of the time but likes the right kind of Democrats. A decade ago, Democrats actually controlled some of the legislature in Montana, though they haven’t in awhile. Still, the State House in Montana is only 59-41 R, so in some universe where Democrats do extraordinarily well on Tuesday night, this could be a sleeper chamber.

Democratic Defense:

- Alaska House: Democrats hold this chamber thanks to a number of Republicans caucusing with them, some of which have now become independents. Nominally, it is a 22-18 majority, but it’s really 17 elected Democrats, 18 elected and faithful Republicans, and then 3 Republicans caucusing as Democrats and 2 Republicans caucusing as Independents who side with Democrats. That’s a mouthful. So can Democrats hang onto control of this chamber? The good news was that 2 of the 3 GOP turncoats survived their primaries and are likely to stay in the fold (HD-15, HD-32). Additionally, only 1 D held seat is in play. Thus, that gives the Dem caucus a likely 18 seats. The two independent seats are going to fall to the Republicans in all likelihood, giving them 17 seats. Then there are 5 tossups, 3 faithful Republican-held, 1 D-held, and 1 Republican caucusing-as-a-Dem held. This is a mess and it may take weeks to sort out control.

- Connecticut (both): Democrats have been gashed in the State of Connecticut at the legislative level during the tenure of unpopular Governor Dan Malloy, reducing their majorities in this blue state to rather slim numbers. That said, given that Democrats appear poised to hang on to the Governor’s mansion with relative ease, this is just probably not the right year for Republicans to make the tremendous gains that they would like. Still, there is the outside chance that one of these two chambers could flip D → R.

Chambers that won’t flip but could see significant movement

- Wisconsin House : One of the most notorious gerrymanders in the country, Wisconsin R’s have put the lower chamber of the state legislature on lockdown thanks to the 2011 redistricting. Entering November 2018, the GOP holds a 64-35 edge in the chamber and are not going to lose that in November. That does not mean however, that Democrats won’t make gains. In all likelihood, they will. The following districts are the key ones to watch: 14, 50, 68, 96, 42, 49, 50, 51, 68, 85, 88, 92, and 96, though others will likely be close. A Democratic gain in the mid-to-high single digits is most likely.

- Ohio Senate (and House): Republicans hold a 24-9 advantage in this incredibly gerrymandered map but Democrats do have some opportunities in 2018. 4 GOP-held seats were won by either Clinton or Obama with a few other seats on the fringe, many of them open seats. In the lower chamber, Republicans also hold a big 65-34 majority, but Democrats again could gain a handful of seats, potentially high single digits.

- Florida House : Democrats are facing a gerrymandered map and need to gain 19 (out of 120) seats to get a majority. Probably not going to happen in one night. However, a strong night from Democrats and they could easily gain 8 or 10 seats, with higher gains possible. One of the most fascinating questions in these elections is whether the levee finally breaks in South Florida with ticket splitting Cubans who vote for Democrats for President but Republicans for state legislature. There have been some signs of this occurring in special and county-level elections in the past year and if it did, Democrats could make pretty significant gains in the chamber. Probably not enough though. If you want to read more, I recommend this piece from Matthew Isbell.

- Pennsylvania Senate : Republicans hold a gaudy 34-16 edge on this brutally gerrymandered map but because of that, Dems have nowhere to go but up. Only 25 of the 50 seats are up this fall so it’s nearly impossible to see this chamber flipping in 2018. But with a good November, this could become a tossup chamber by the time 2020 rolls around. SD-6, 10, 12, 16, 26, 38, 40, 44 are all in play and it’s not hard to see how Dems net 4 or 5, with potentially 7 or 8 flips possible if a large sized wave comes.

- Illinois Senate (and House) : Democrats already hold a majority in the Illinois Senate but they have a chance to grow it significantly, with 6 GOPers serving in seats Hillary Clinton won and several others in narrow Trump seats. Thanks to Gov. Bruce Rauner’s (R) likely disastrous demise at the top of the ticket, Republicans are fearing for the worst down-ballot, and that could bring Democrats mid-to-high single digit gains in both chambers of the legislature.

- Washington House: Democrats currently hold just a 50-48 majority in the lower chamber of Washington State, a pretty firmly liberal state. However, that slim majority is probably going to get blown up into a large majority this November as the primary showed pretty grim results for Republicans. The high range for potential Democratic gains would be 18 seats while the bare minimum is likely 4-5. This chamber could get pretty ugly very quickly if the GOP is not careful.

- Iowa Senate : Iowa Democrats held the State Senate for a decade, from 2007-2017, but finally lost it when Donald Trump won at the top of the ticket by 9 points in 2016. They currently sit in a 29-20-1 hole, with that one independent retiring in a very red seat, so it is essentially a 30-20 GOP edge. To make matters worse, only 25 seats are up in 2018 and this is a very bad map for Dems, with a lot of seats that voted for both Obama/Trump. Dems have opportunities to flip seats in SD-7, SD-19, SD-41, and SD-47, but the path to 25 just isn’t really there. Rather if they can simply flip two or three GOP-held seats and hold onto all their seats, that would be a big win and would put the chamber back in play for 2020. If you want to know how Obama/Trump Midwestern voters are behaving politically in 2018, this is a chamber to watch.

Conclusion