For years I’ve had this science fiction universe in mind which I call “Our Ascent”. It’s a basically positive, though possibly controversial and probably not optimal vision of the future. While I played with an extreme revolutionary shift in this universe, recent considerations suggested to me that such a shift would be relatively unrealistic. Now I’m in favor of a much more gradual “slow takeoff” scenario. This “slow takeoff” is actually not really slow, as there’s still exponential progress in many areas, but there’s no clear explosion of progress where everything seems to happen at once, or within more or less one year. Even though superhuman intelligence will increase progress immensely and it will amplify itself rather quickly once it found out how to do so, the final effects will be still constrained by a couple of limiting factors, and by the limits to the usefulness of intelligence itself – that is, I assume that increasing intelligence much further will rather soon hit decreasing returns.

Accordingly, I had to design a new timeline for my fictional universe. And here it is:

2010s

This decade may be characterized by increasing economic troubles and slow refinements of already existing technologies, which are hyped as revolutionary nevertheless (comparable to the iPhone and iPad hypes). Alternative energies are on the rise, but they create an increasing burden for the energy grid. It has to be readjusted to the strongly varying input for alternative energies, but energy storage technologies only make slow progress. Brownout and blackouts become increasingly common, which burden the already troubled economy even more. Where austerity measures are enforced to deal with the rising debt levels of national states they typically fail and often result in state bankruptcy. Around the middle of the decade it becomes increasingly clear that Peak Oil has been reached. Consequently, the prices of most products rise sharply. Poverty is on the rise and comes with increasingly frequent civil unrests. Many millions die from starvation due to rising food prices.

2015

Augmented reality glasses are available for around 500$.

2016

Big national initiatives towards establishing smart grids using electric cars, bikes and drones as energy storage units are launched. A large part of alternative energy will go into charging these vehicles.

2017

Millions of households have 3d printers which can at least print with plastics.

Simple telepresence robots available for less than 1000$ are used commonly, especially due to rising transportation costs.

2018

Finally, driverless cars are available, but they are largely unpopular, due to various psychological reasons.

Development of microchips gets stuck at 7nm, due to economic reasons. There’s little money for researching better technologies.

After airborne drones are used for political assassinations their use becomes strictly regulated. Police forces start using armed drones increasingly in reaction to the new threat.

2019

There are universally useful household robots, but only few households are actually able to afford them. Such robots become status symbols of what’s left of the upper middle class.

Bitcoin is firmly established as global secondary currency with which you can pay is almost all places. 1 Bitcoin is worth much more than 1000$US.

2020s

In 2020 a large global economic crash hits the world. In almost all regions of the world unemployment is above 25%, officially – the real numbers are more likely above 50%. Where governments haven’t declared bankruptcy during the years before debts explode and social security systems collapse. In many nations mass starvation is imminent. Because of extreme discontent with the current state of politics, civil unrests and revolutions explode in almost all nations. Even in many formerly democratic countries interrim administrations manage the transition towards direct democracy. SimPol, an initiative to implement global policies in many nations simultaneously gains in popularity. The introduction of basic income guarantees is debated hotly everywhere, but only in few countries such proposals get a majority. Large experiments with reputation based economies begin.

2020

One Bitcoin is worth 10 times more than last year.

2021

One Bitcoin is worth 100 times more than last year.

Somatic gene therapy becomes commonplace

2022

Supermarkets face competition from 3d printing shops.

The Direct Coalition, a confederation of nations governed by direct democracy, emerges as new global superpower.

2023

Publicly shared driverless cars (mostly electric) become popular.

Construction workers (where they haven’t been replaced by robots already) often use exoskelletons.

Gene therapies provide immunity against HIV.

2024

As conventional fuels become extremely expensive, electric cars become hugely popular. More than 50% of all new cars are electric.

Finally, 5nm chips reach the mass market.

Animal tests are phased out, due to the availability of more advanced testing methods.

2025

Wearable computers and non-invasive neural interfaces are now the typical forms of personal computers.

A few people use implanted brain computer interfaces. They increase the speed with which these BCI users interact with software, but hardly provide any other benefits yet.

The first SimPol mediated global tax measures (Tobin tax) become active. Also, geoengineering measures are coordinated internationally.

2026

Widespread medical monitoring implants revolutionize healthcare. Most chronic diseases can be prevented effectively.

More universal 3d printers shift a large fraction of production to private households or 3d printing shops.

2027

Graphene based 3d chips start replacing older microchips.

The first astroid mine starts delivering rare metals to Earth.

Big companies start using nanofactories to produce their goods.

2028

Personal AI helpers and agents become commonplace. Their introduction can avert a sharp rise in unemployment due to increasing robotization of work. With this kind of hybrid intelligence the many humans can stay competitive in the areas which haven’t been automated completely yet.

DIY gene therapy kits are available on the black market. Self experiments that alter the brain chemistry are popular. Many of them yield interesting pathological results.

A few communities and nations secede from the Direct Coalition to form the Repocratic Alliance. In a community of the Repocratic Alliance the political influence of a person depends on their score in a reputation system.

2029

Printed meat becomes competitive to factory farming.

The first really effective anti-aging treatments become available.

Most households have an advanced household robot.

2030s

Breakthroughs in quantum computing at the beginning of the new decade wreak havoc as they are used to crack many of the old encryption codes. Some had enough foresight to transition to effective quantum encryption before these breakthroughs. Many either didn’t have sufficient foresight or were too thrifty to make the transition in time. A short phase of global chaos and the so-called economic Quantum Contraction destabilize global economy and politics. As a result many nations transition to direct democracy and apply for membership in the Direct Coalition, which consequently becomes the clearly dominant superpower. China finally adopts a weird form of semi-democratic communist technocracy, which becomes popular as techno communism. In general, the economy has transitioned to a hybrid money/reputation system. The field of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is making huge progress. It is unclear whether AIs have passed the Turing Test. It is often claimed that AIs only emulate general intelligence. Consequently, the Turing Test is discarded as valid measure for general intelligence.

2031

The upper class lives in houses which are printed rather than built in conventional ways. Their artistic and aesthetical value is quite impressive.

A new class of so called “mutants” appears, which use DIY gene therapy kits to gain new abilities. Many of them are incarcerated for unlicensed use of gene technology. The issue of mutant rights polarizes society.

2032

The Direct Coalition introduces a coalition-wide basic income.

Workable AGI designs are devised. It doesn’t come as full surprise that these AGIs need to be trained in a time consuming process that is similar to human socialization and education. Debates about the rights of these AGIs polarize society even more.

Fear of these new AGIs leads to a swift introduction of strict regulations of AGIs.

2033

Experiments with artificial chromosomes open up unprecedented possibilities in medicine. Many aging processes can be reversed.

2034

The first humans are uploaded via destructive brain scans. The first whole brain emulations run about 100 times slower than real time. It is clear that higher speeds can be reached by optimizing the emulation methods, but it’s not clear which parts of the brain need to be emulated in which detail to retain a really truthful copy of the human mind.

Private nanofactories are available, but their use is monitored closely by new security agencies.

2035

Experimental nanofactories are able to produce the first useful nanobots.

Global dominance of the Direct Coalition is threatened by the rise of the Communist Republic, a federation of techno communist countries.

2036

Advanced brain computer interfaces are developed. These BCI implants can enhance the capabilities of their users dramatically. Users of these BCIs are colloquially called (real) cyborgs. They are often faced with intense mistrust.

The Direct Coalition phases out animal slaughter, culimnating in a complete ban in 2040.

2037

Food printers become common household appliances.

The Direct Coalition pronounces the Universal Declaration of Mutant Rights , which grants morphological freedom to all humans.

, which grants morphological freedom to all humans. Personal AGI assistants become commonplace.

2038

Full reversal of aging is possible.

As previous regulations of AGIs are deemed to be insufficient to control the increasingly intelligent AGIs, a global agency called Artificial Intelligence Constraint Organization Network (AICON, spelled like icon) is founded. AGIs are required to keep each other in check. AICON enforces this requirement on a global scale.

2039

It is commonly accepted that AGIs have reached human level intelligence, at the very least.

Medical nanobots are able to cure the last incurable diseases – at least for those who have access to such treatments.

2040s

Perhaps the most prevalent feeling in the 2040s is that of confusion. With the advent of human-AI hybrids, mutants, AGIs, uploads, cyborgs, and soon uplifted animals few people have an informed clue which group should have which rights, or even how to distinguish all those groups from each other clearly. Politics is becoming increasingly complex and society threatens to disintegrate into clusters of intentional communities based on common values and principles, called scopes. Most still existing nation states are overwhelmed with the complexity and opt to implement the consensus policy of the power block they are part of. At the beginning of the decade almost the whole world is administrated by the three big blocks, the Direct Coalition, the Repocratic Alliance and the Communist Republic. Yet, the immensely fast technological progress during this decade forces all blocks to deregulate massively, as they want to avoid a bureaucratic singularity which would be equivalent to total anarchy as nobody would be able to keep up with the increasingly complicated corpus of laws and regulations. No previous decade has ever seen so much liberty, so much diversity, or so much chaos.

2040

Nanobot based BCIs become available. They eliminate the necessity of complicated operations when it comes to implanting BCIs.

Self-replicating nanobots are developed. “Grey goo” scenarios are considered, but deemed unlikely due to the relative inefficiency of the replication process. Nevertheless, this invention triggers the development of a planetary nano defense system.

Uploads can finally be run at realtime. Ironically, even they require the help of AGI assistants to remain competitive.

2041

Many patients in cryonic suspension have been revived via advanced nanotechnology.

BCIs grant their users technologically mediated telepathic and empathic abilities.

2042

Successful animal uplifting experiments add more complexity to the world.

A first version of the global nano defense grid has been installed.

Costruction of Yggdrasil, a huge orbital elevator commences.

2043

Nanobot based BCIs now enable non-destructive uploading.

Nuclear fusion drives propell spaceships throughout the solar system. The three power blocks found colonies on suitable planets, moons, and asteroids.

2044

Finally, AGIs have come up with useful intelligence augmentation modifications. Thus far, they have been stuck on an all too human level of general intelligence.

Experiments with group-mind technologies confuse everyone.

2045

Surprise: Fusion power goes onto the electric grid. Usually, it’s more expensive than solar power, but can be switched on and off on demand. This reduces the demands on energy storage infrastructure. Nevertheless, it’s not very competitive.

Sensible hedonic augmentation and similar neural augmentations are possible with advanced BCIs. This marks the beginning of the Hedonic Revolution. Finally, humans and other sentient beings can escape the hedonic treadmill. Of course, this innovation is faced with widespread criticism.

2046

Uploads can run 60 times faster than realtime and have access to a vast array of intelligence augmentation modifications. Fierce debates erupt about whether uploads should be subject to the AICON regulations or not.

Versatile swarms of specialized nanobots called shapers can aggregate into useful objects.

2047

AICON comes to a consensus about enforcing less strict regulations for augmented uploads. It’s a widespread view that this represents an unacceptable infringement on privacy and human rights (even though the human right status of uploads still isn’t totally clear). This makes AICON rather unpopular. Protests against AICON regulations are frequent, but ineffectual.

In a stationary orbit around the sun the construction of the Solar Geodesic Collider commences.

2048

The first safe mind merging procedures are developed. Two AGIs or uploads can become one.

A new power block emerges: The Harmonic Consensus. It’s based on a complex synthesis of direct democracy, repocracy, and techno communism which is constantly redesigning itself according to the wishes of its members. It requires direct volition analysis and the management by advanced AGIs or uploads, because it’s totally complicated. Protection of privacy is not a serious priority of the Harmonic Consensus. Especially AGIs and uploads regard the Harmonic Consensus as attractive alternative to the other power blocks.

2049

The moon becomes a rapidly growing colony with millions of inhabitants, most of which are AGIs and uploads. It is powered by nuclear fusion and self-replicating solar panels.

Advanced nanomachines called emulators are invented. They are basically nanomachines which emulate the functions of normal animal cells while also possessing enhanced abilities that are only known from nanobots. Some versions of emulators are also shapers, so that they can be used for aggregating into shapeshifting bodies.

2050s

One of the central topics of the new decade is that of artillects, artificial intellects which are vastly more powerful than regular humans, and even the typical advanced AGI. It is hotly debated whether to build them, and if yes how they are built and which roles they should play. Another hot topic is that of nature and suffering: Is the suffering in nature acceptable? Is involuntary suffering acceptable at all? What is suffering exactly? And if one should intervene into nature, how should this intervention look like? With the advent of superintelligence the rate of technological progress reaches fantastic proportions. Last but not least, the issue of general sentient rights is still not resolved completely. Uploads, AGIs and uplifted animals still don’t have all the rights which are enjoyed by “regular” humans. Especially, they are not allowed to reproduce freely, because the public fears an uncontrollable population explosion. Generally, it’s considered a fair price for near immortality and mental superiority, but it makes everyone feel a bit uneasy.

2050

Uploads can run 1000 times faster than realtime, and like AGIs they possess slightly superhuman intelligence.

The integrator mind architecture is developed. Integrators are AGIs which organize a group-mind and represent a core that is optimized according to certain criteria desired by the group-mind. For that purpose the integrator scans the minds of the members of the group-mind and copies useful parts of these minds into itself. Then it weaves these parts into its own neural structure to gain the best abilities of all members of the group-mind. Afterwards it can optimize itself or the members of the group-mind further. Because integrators are super advanced, super weird, super intelligent, and super scary, AICON requires extremely strict regulations for them.

2051

Tiny star ships with photon drives can reach speeds up to 10% of the speed of light. They are used by a few uploads and AGIs to colonize the Oort cloud, a sphere of asteroids around the solar system. These asteroids are about one light year away from the sun, so the travel duration is about 10 years.

Advances in hedonic technology allow people to operate on gradients of bliss instead of a combination of positive emotions and suffering. Sentient beings using this hedonic configuration are colloquially called blissies. For most purposes their performance is comparable to that of other augmented hedonic configurations, but they are seen as kinda weird.

It is generally considered that sufficiently augmented uploads and AGIs possess equivalent levels of intelligence. Both of them are called class S1 minds, as opposed to class S0 minds which are below their level of high intelligence. With the advent of integrators, which usually are classified as class S2 minds, this warrants a reduction of AICON security regulations for uploads and “normal” AGIs alike.

2052

The Anima Mundi goes online. It is an integrator for the global group-mind and has a purely advisorial function.

goes online. It is an integrator for the global group-mind and has a purely advisorial function. After 10 years of construction, the orbital elevator Yggdrasil is finally completed.

2053

A general theory of consciousness and qualia is found. Finally, this resolves the discussions about possible philosophical zombies, at least for those who really understand the theory. Another application of that theory is the development of a wide range of qualia modifications, which change subjective percetion in totally interesting ways, but are otherwise mostly useless.

The Anima Mundi clearly surpasses all other minds in intelligence and becomes the first example of a class S3 mind. Others integrators are soon to follow.

2054

All power blocks design different declarations of sentient rights. Those differences crystalize the tensions between the blocks.

The construction of the first version of the SGC (the Solar Geodesic Collider) is completed. It has a length of 5000 kilometers. It shows the viability to create extremely heavy, but stable atoms.

A new mode of communication is developed: The Netcast Protocol. It allows to project whole parts of your mind into other ones communicating with you over Netcast. That way, you can make very sure that the others totally get what you actually want to express. This basic idea becomes the foundation for what is called semantic communication (as opposed to error prone symbolic communication).

2055

AICON develops a Universal Declaration of Sentient Rights , which is enforced in all power blocks.

, which is enforced in all power blocks. A new power block emerges: The Anima Alliance . It is comparable to the Harmonic Consensus, but it grants more privacy rights and is guided by the advice of the Anima Mundi. By now, the Anima Mundi has become a full fledged artilect (according to AICON it’s now a class S4 mind) which is capable of organizing and managing the world relatively effectively. Nevertheless, members of the Anima Alliance are often called “AI god worshippers” disparingly by members of other blocks.

. It is comparable to the Harmonic Consensus, but it grants more privacy rights and is guided by the advice of the Anima Mundi. By now, the Anima Mundi has become a full fledged artilect (according to AICON it’s now a class S4 mind) which is capable of organizing and managing the world relatively effectively. Nevertheless, members of the Anima Alliance are often called “AI god worshippers” disparingly by members of other blocks. The long ongoing debate about voting rights for S1 minds in the Direct Coalition finally divides it and leads to the establishment of two different successors: The Baseline Coalition in which S1 minds have no voting rights and The Universal Coalition in which S0 and S1 minds have equal voting rights.

2056

Starseeds, tiny starships which photon drives are built. They reach speeds of up to 50% of the speed of light. A first wave of starseeds is sent out to colonize nearby star systems. When they arrive at their destination they build bridgeheads, so that visitors can encode their minds into bursts of gamma rays which are decoded at the target system.

A class S4 mind called Athena is created by AICON. Its role is to protect S0 minds from others. When class S1, S2, or S3 minds agree with the surveillance by Athena they are freed from most other AICON regulations.

is created by AICON. Its role is to protect S0 minds from others. When class S1, S2, or S3 minds agree with the surveillance by Athena they are freed from most other AICON regulations. High energy stabilization of degenerate nuclear matter is possible. This kind of femtotechnology is really cool, but requires too much energy to be really useful.

2057

The Harmonic Consensus launches the Nature 2.0 Initiative . They upload the parts of Earths biosphere which are under their control, and turn these parts into a kind of paradise ecosystem, abolishing all involuntary suffering in that part of nature 2.0. Other power blocks condemn this provocative action, but otherwise don’t change their relation to the Harmonic Consensus.

. They upload the parts of Earths biosphere which are under their control, and turn these parts into a kind of paradise ecosystem, abolishing all involuntary suffering in that part of nature 2.0. Other power blocks condemn this provocative action, but otherwise don’t change their relation to the Harmonic Consensus. “Replicators” produce macroscopic goods with atomic precision within minutes.

A splinter group of the Communist Republic turns into the Integrated Republic, which is governed by S2 and S3 minds that are supposed to maximize the well-being of S0 and S1 minds. Due to the resistance of other power blocks it fails to gain a lot of territorry for itself. It only acquires a few asteroids and remains a virtual community in the rest of the solar system. Later on, it participates in the colonization of other solar systems.

2058

A planetary weather control system is established on Earth.

All blocks other than the Harmonic Consensus agree on the Gaia Initiative. It involves cyborgizing all sentient beings in what will be termed nature 1.5 (the part of nature that is not nature 2.0), so that their suffering is slightly ameliorated and their minds are uploaded and stored when they are about to die. However, the uploaded minds will only be initialized if someone volunteers as godfather to care for that being. The Gaia Initiative is executed by a new class S4 artilect called Gaia.

2059

A new kind of construction technology is developed. So-called dispensers use matter beams that they project towards desired locations at which the matter is rearranged into all kinds of desired objects. They are less precise, less energy efficient, and slower than replicators.

2060s

Due to the large increase of S1 population within the Universal Coalition and the Integrated Republic, S1 minds slowly become the dominant factions. Those S1 factions become increasingly discontented with AICON and its intrusive regulations which are mainly based on the paranoia of S0 minds. So, they propose an alternative method of managing security affairs: Via the Codex of Respect. Minds of higher tiers are required to adhere to the rules of the Codex which basically state that they need to respect minds of lower tiers and aren’t allowed to threaten them in any way. This suggestion is met with mistrust. The safety regulations of the Codex are seen as too weak – the only consequence of infringement of the Codex are so-called “Serious Debates” about ethics. The Unversal Coalition and the Integrated Republic are threatened with embargos and even military intervention should they actually abandon AICON regulations. The world is polarized by the question whether these threats are justified or not. These threats are often seen as sign of moral inferiority. Simulations might show whether the Codex is effective enough to guarantee the security of S0 beings, but realistic simulations of sentient beings are ethically problematic.

2060

Now that uploads can run a million times faster than realtime, the priority in research shifts towards improving the energy efficiency of the computing substrates on which they run.

2061

Hedonic enhancement technologies allow states of bliss many million times more intense than anything unaugmented sentient beings can experience.

2062

The Gaia Initiative joins the Nature 2.0 Initiative. This marks the end of involuntary suffering.

2063

Qualia transformation technology allows so-called actors to play suffering sentient beings in realistic simulations without actually suffering. This innovation allows for the realistic simulation of different scenarios to test the reliability of the Codex. It also causes a lot of philosophical confusion.

2064

The Universal Declaration of Sentient Rights is extended to also protect sentient beings only living in simulations.

2065

The SGC is finally extended to a length of 100000 kilometers.

2066

The History Reconstruction Project is initiated. It aims at reconstructing the history of Earth as truthfully as possible. Of course, this will be used to reconstruct persons who have already died before there were any mind backups. For this project a part of the mantle of Earth is turned into computing substrate. Many religious leaders protest against this effort to “play god”. But by now the old religions have lost a lot of their power, so their protests can’t stop the project.

is initiated. It aims at reconstructing the history of Earth as truthfully as possible. Of course, this will be used to reconstruct persons who have already died before there were any mind backups. For this project a part of the mantle of Earth is turned into computing substrate. Many religious leaders protest against this effort to “play god”. But by now the old religions have lost a lot of their power, so their protests can’t stop the project. Replicator technology is highly advanced now. It can produce large goods within seconds and with subatomic precision.

2067

Nuclear descent technology is developed. As opposed to high energy nuclear matter stabilization it creates super degenerate nuclear matter, so called descent matter, which has a lower net energy than normal matter. Thus the nuclear descent process yields a net energy gain. It’s actually much larger than the energy gain from nuclear fusion.

is developed. As opposed to high energy nuclear matter stabilization it creates super degenerate nuclear matter, so called descent matter, which has a lower net energy than normal matter. Thus the nuclear descent process yields a net energy gain. It’s actually much larger than the energy gain from nuclear fusion. A broad consensus that the Codex would be sufficient to guarantee safety for S0 minds emerges. As threats against the Harmonoc Consensus and the Universal Coalition subside, both blocks abandon the AICON regulations.

The Anima Mundi grows and develops further into what is known as a class S5 mind.

2068

The energy infrastructure around the sun now collects 1ppm of its whole energy output. A large part of this massive amount of energy is used to propell a new generation of starseeds which colonize star systems up to 100 light years away and reach speeds of up to 90% of the speed of light.

The Integrated Republic, the Repocratic Alliance, and the Anima Alliance also abandon AICON regulations.

Freedom from AICON regulations enables a group of hive minds to form a new coalition: The Liquid Coalition. Within the Liquid Coalition political influence is roughly proportional to the number of (qu)bits of a sub entity making political demands. Decision making within that new coalition can be compared to decision making within the human brain. Previously, the AICON regulations for hive minds enforced less natural ways of mental and political organization.

2069

The Communist Republic finally abandons AICON regulations. Now, AICON’s power is confined to the Baseline Coalition.

The first visitors from the new colony in the Alpha Centauri system arrive back in the solar system via gamma ray data transmission.

2070s

The 2070s are shaped by the advent of advanced femtotechnology. Its blessings enable the dawn of a new golden era, as it enables the effective colonization of the sun and other extreme regions of the solar systems. Those regions become centers of a new high culture. Nevertheless, all regions benefit from the energy abundance made possible by nuclear descent energy. Politically, the differences between the different power blocks become less important, as the Codex becomes the basis for a universal framework of mutual benevolence. As S1+ minds enjoy greater freedoms they are less eager to serve S0 minds, but still remain greatly helpful. All of these trends culminate in the founding of the Phoenix Federation which will regulate the relations between the different power blocks.

2070

Elaborate construction methods are required to build useful stuff out of descent matter. It’s now possible to create computers out of descent matter which are more powerful than computers made with regular matter.

Phase 1 of the History Reconstruction Project has been completed. History has been reconstructed back to 1870 and those humans who died after that year have been restored.

2071

Ships can be built from descent matter. They are able to withstand the extreme conditions in the photosphere of the sun. Many realize that this is a good opportunity to actually colonize the photosphere of the sun with stations built from descent matter.

2072

New starseeds are made from descent matter. They reach speeds up to 99% of the speed of light and are used for a new wave of colonization of many star systems within a radius of 500 lightyears.

2073

The polar regions of the sun become centers of the new Stellarian culture. A new power block emerges from these centers: The Iridescent Republic, guided by the S5 mind Iris.

2074