Second, how closely was Iran involved in the back-and-forth? Israeli and US media take it for granted that this was an Iranian move. A closer examination reveals that there is no concrete evidence for that. The images of the wrecked drone do not prove that it was run by Iranians or even manufactured by Iran — the Israeli side argues that it is based on Western technology reverse-engineered by the Iranians after they captured an American drone back in 2011. If we believe this, it remains unclear why the Iranians would expose their secret stealth technology in this situation.

Here the Israeli side is less convincing. It should be seen in the context of two large-scale processes that have been taking place for years. First, Israeli aggression that has been violating Syrian airspace for years now. Estimates place the number of Israeli airstrikes at over 100 so far during the Syrian war, focused on targets that supposedly threatened Israeli security and without taking a formal side in the war (despite a lot of on-the-ground evidence otherwise). While Iran is definitely allied with Assad and must have known about the attack and perhaps even encouraged it, it is impossible to rule out that this was a Syrian decision rather than an Iranian one. After all, it is their country and they would bear the brunt of any further hostility by the Israelis. Recent claims cited by the well-positioned Elijah Magnier reinforce the point — Syria will respond to any Israeli violation of its airspace.

Moreover, public opinion in US and Israel has been against Iran and its government for a long time now, with numerous covert operations against it. Within this narrative, ambiguous events such as this one are immediately ascribed to Iranian aggression. Again, this is not to say that it is impossible that Iran stands behind the attack, but it does fit into a worldview that promotes aggressive action against Iran (mainly by the US). The focus on Iran also avoids any mention of Russian involvement, which we’ll discuss below.

Third, what happened where? The geography in both narratives hardly makes sense. The Israelis say that the drone was downed near the [Jordanian] border while the video they released supposedly show Syria. Reuters claims the drone was shot down above Beit Shean, 35 kilometers from the closest Syrian border. Syria, on its part, denies its drone entered Israeli airspace.

The drone’s mobile command unit is claimed to have been in as-Sukhnah, NE of Palmyra and 330 kilometers from Israeli territory, according to the Israeli side, and Homs (170 kilometers from the closest Israeli border), according to the Syrian side. Interestingly, Syria’s capital Damascus, is less than 50 kilometers away from the Israeli border. The plane crashed near Kibbutz Harduf, which is 85 kilometers from the same point and about 45 kilometers from the nearest border.

Why should the mobile[!] drone control unit be so far inside Syria? How could the F-16 attack deep inside Syria, get hit in Syrian territory and still fly at least 100 kilometers before crashing? Did the drone cross into Israeli airspace? Can Israel legitimately bomb a base so deep in Syria, citing its security concerns? Although we cannot answer all these questions, the narratives are meant to construct different realities. According to the Israeli narrative, the Israeli air force is capable of stopping enemy operations on its only 3–4 miles from the border (rather than deeper inside). It is also confident enough to attack across Syria with impunity. The Syrian narrative emphasizes its capability to affect Israeli airspace.

If the Syrian narrative is true and the Israeli F-16 was shot down tens of kilometers inside Israel, this would be an even greater change in the strategic balance of the region. Syria has long been treated as a weak state torn by its civil war, and Israel was glad to exploit this situation. The fact that Syria — after a long destructive war, no less — was confident enough to engage with Israel sends a clear message against more Israeli intervention.