Republican senators and strategists are similarly hesitant to comment on the future of Sen. John McCain’s seat. | Astrid Riecken/Getty Images GOP hopes of holding Senate rise after Arizona deadline

Republicans are increasingly certain that they have taken a potentially disastrous special Senate election in Arizona off the board as of the close of business Wednesday.

Once that hour passes, the GOP believes that Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, a Republican, will be able to appoint a successor to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) if he leaves his seat this year. That person would serve until the next general election in 2020, Republicans say.


That would limit the number of Democratic pick-up opportunities in the November midterms and boost the GOP’s chances of holding the narrowly divided chamber.

May 30 was the last day that a Senate vacancy would trigger a special election this year, according to Republicans’ interpretation of the law. However, Republicans are still prepared for Democrats to challenge that interpretation in an effort to put another toss-up seat on the board.

But Democrats do not appear to have an action plan to try and force a special election. They have studiously avoided the topic of McCain’s potential death — he is suffering from brain cancer — believing it’s too taboo to address publicly despite the massive political ramifications, according to Democratic sources. The Arizona Democratic Party did not respond to a request for comment.

Republican senators and strategists are similarly hesitant to comment on the future of McCain’s seat.

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But a Republican familiar with the issue said the GOP is confident it would prevail in a legal battle over a special election. Democrats are likely to try to press the issue if it comes to that, however, given the low risk of going to court and the high political stakes.

“We anticipate the [Democrats] will try everything they can to make this a 2018 race, but the state law is being interpreted that it should be a 2020 race after today,” a Republican strategist in Arizona said.

Arizona law states that filing day cannot be fewer than 90 days before the special election primary, making the latest possible filing deadline May 30 because the state’s primary is Aug. 28. After Wednesday, Republicans believe Ducey would not hold a special election this November because it wouldn't comport with state law.

And, Republicans said, it would be impossible to prepare for an election on such short notice.

“The filing deadline is today. [It takes] 6,000-plus signatures to qualify,” the GOP strategist said. “How are you going to allow potential candidates to do that? … The ship has sailed.”

McCain is not expected to willingly leave his seat early, according to his GOP colleagues and people who know him. If he dies, some Republican senators have speculated that his wife, Cindy McCain, could be appointed to serve until the 2020 election.

The likely lack of a second open Senate race this year is politically significant: Arizona has become an increasingly competitive battleground state, and another open Senate race this year would increase the chances that Democrats could take back the Senate.

Democrats are defending 10 incumbents in states that President Donald Trump won but are also on offense in Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee and Texas. With the Senate GOP controlling just 51 seats, another special election would widen an exceedingly narrow Democratic path to the majority.

The Arizona race is enough of a headache on its own for Republicans. Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) is retiring this year, and Republicans are dealing with a crowded primary in the race to replace him and take on Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) is the favorite of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), but she must dispatch two conservative primary challengers, former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio and former state Sen. Kelli Ward.

For now, Republicans are upbeat about McSally’s chances because Ward and Arpaio might split the conservative vote. But a second Senate race in the state could have scrambled all that if either Ward or Arpaio left the race to replace Flake and jumped into a special election.