INDIANAPOLIS – The numbers are cut and dry. Frank Reich should have punted.

Gutsy as it was for the first-year Indianapolis Colts coach to put faith in his players to convert a late fourth down in what became a sudden-death overtime, the math says Reich was coaching with his heart and not his head.

“I'm not playing to tie,” a defiant Reich said after the Colts’ heartbreaking 37-34 defeat Sunday at the hands of the Houston Texans. “I'll do that 10 times out of 10. That's just the way it's got to roll."

While many Colts fans and seemingly all of his players admired Reich’s audaciousness, the truth is that the call to go for it on fourth down was ill-advised. According to numberFire’s win probability model, just before the Colts (1-3) made their failed gambit, they had just a 10.42 percent chance of escaping Lucas Oil Stadium with a victory.

A 10 percent chance of winning hardly seems worth the risk of providing Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense – which had no trouble cutting through a gassed Colts defense in their final three drives of the game – with a golden opportunity to position themselves for the victory.

If 10 percent seems low, consider what had to happen for the Colts to have pulled off the minor miracle it would taken to win. Converting the fourth-and-4 is only the beginning, and even that was more likely to fail than succeed. According to Pro Football Reference, teams have just a 44.3 percent success rate in converting a first down in that situation. That doesn’t take into account that the Colts were playing without Andrew Luck’s top target (T.Y. Hilton) running back (Marlon Mack) and offensive tackles (Anthony Castonzo, Joe Haeg), so the Colts' odd were likely worse.

However, say Chester Rogers makes the diving catch and converts the fourth down, a tie — which Reich could have all but ensured with a punt — remains a wildly more likely outcome than a win. Here’s why:

On the fourth-down attempt in question, Texans cornerback Jonathan Joseph was draped all over Rogers on his curl route, and he likely touches Rogers down in bounds at the Colts' 47-yard-line. That puts the Colts in a jam, as there would have only been 24 seconds remaining when Rogers caught the ball, and the clock is ticking away. They will either have to burn their final timeout, hustle to the line and clock the ball or quickly set up and run another play.

No matter what Reich opts to do, he also must figure out how to move the ball at least another 13 to 20 more yards to get within Adam Vinatieri’s striking distance. Despite his well-earned moniker as the greatest kicker of all time, Vinatieri has never connected on a 60-yard field goal. His career long is 57 yards, and he’s only about a 58 percent accurate on kicks of 50 yards or more in his career.

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Again, considering they wouldn't have a timeout remaining if Rogers had caught the pass, it would have been very difficult to move the ball the distance they needed to, run out the field goal unit and get off an attempt all before time expired.

Add it all up, and the Colts had too much to lose and not a good enough chance at success to excuse Reich's gamble.

As it tough as it might have been to stomach, Reich should have punted and taken the tie. The Colts already were longshots in the AFC South, but following Sunday victories by both the Tennessee Titans (3-1) and reigning champion Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1), their odds took a significant blow.

And not to add insult to injury, but Reich also should not have burned his final timeout in an effort to ice Houston kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn at the end of overtime. That’s not just because he missed his first attempt and redeemed himself seconds later to seal the Texans’ win. It’s because mathematically, giving a kicker two tries at a game-winning field goal is bad idea.

According to a graphic shown by NBC during a Sunday Night Football broadcast last year, kickers are five percent more likely to connect on a field goal on their second attempt. Since 2007, NFL kickers converted on 78.1 percent of the lead-changing field goals in the final minute of a game after a timeout was called. They were only 73 percent successful if no timeout was called.

To be fair, as head coach, Reich has far too much on his plate to have these kinds of numbers top of mind, but someone on the team probably should have let him know: Icing the kicker doesn't work.

Follow IndyStar Sports reporter Jim Ayello on Twitter and Facebook: @jimayello.