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This year could mark a breakthrough for the Opposition Progressive Conservative Party, but it could just as easily be the time that P.E.I.’s Green party turns heads across the country.

Confounding over 100 years of history, the Island is headed into an election year that will likely feature a three-way fight.

The Liberals and PC parties have traditionally traded power back and forth, but the upstart Green party, which has been leading – by a hair – in recent opinion polls has grown into a significant challenger.

The leaders of both parties expressed optimism about the futures of their respective parties in year-end interviews with The Guardian.

PC leader James Aylward, who is still the official leader of the Opposition despite announcing his intention to step down in September, said his biggest priority for the year is to ensure the foundations of the PC party remain strong.

“Number one right now, for the party itself, is to elect a new leader," Aylward said.

The party is preparing for a leadership convention in early February. Five leadership candidates – Kevin Arsenault, Allan Dale, Shawn Driscoll, Dennis King, and Sarah Stewart-Clark – will also face off in three leadership debates over the course of January, this first is tonight at Kaylee Hall in Pooles Corner at 7 p.m.

The party has seen its popularity drop in recent opinion polls, falling from 28 per cent in November 2017 to 20 per cent in November 2018. Despite this, Aylward said the party succeeded in achieving concrete change in the legislature in 2018.

Six private members bills introduced by PC members were passed in the legislature over the course of the year. One will require incoming judges to receive training in sexual assault law, while another allowed workers who are suffering from PTSD to access workers compensation.

"For an Opposition to successfully bring six pieces of legislation to the floor, have them debated and have them passed is unprecedented. It's unheard of, really," Aylward said.

The attention generated by the PC leadership contest could result in a boost in opinion polls for the next PC leader.

Green leader Peter Bevan-Baker also believes his party has made gains in the legislative arena.

The party saw the passage of its first private members bill in November, which will allow arts, culture and clean technology organizations to access funding from Innovation P.E.I. A series of Green party amendments to legislation governing the sexual assault policies of post-secondary institutions was also passed by the legislature.

But, Bevan-Baker believes improvements to the internal structures of his party have perhaps had a more significant impact on P.E.I. politics.

"I think the party has matured at extraordinary speed - we had to. We've grown explosively in a very short time. That demands that you create proper structure in your party," Bevan-Baker said.

In 2018, the party put in place a process for screening potential candidates, updated its constitution and nominated candidates in 15 districts across the Island.

"We're being viewed by Islanders as a possible government-in-waiting,” Bevan-Baker said.

One challenge for the party will be the coming referendum on electoral reform, due to coincide with the next election. The Green party has long championed the issue of electoral reform, but legislation governing the referendum will not allow it to be a strong proponent.

Pro-electoral reform groups could pull resources and volunteers away from the party’s electoral efforts.

"We are going to hand off the heavy lifting in terms of advocacy for proportional representation in that referendum to the appropriate places,” Bevan-Baker said.

"Our job in the next election is to win seats in the house."



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