Behavioral Responses to State Income Taxation of High Earners: Evidence from California Joshua Rauh Ryan J. Shyu NBER Working Paper No. 26349

Issued in October 2019, Revised in May 2020

NBER Program(s):Public Economics

Using administrative income tax data, we analyze the response to Proposition 30, a 2012 ballot measure that increased California marginal tax rates by up to 3 percentage points for high-income households. Relative to baseline rates of departure for their income levels, an additional 0.8% of the residential tax base that landed in the top bracket left California in 2013. Using matched out-of-state taxpayers as controls reveals an income elasticity with respect to the marginal net-of-tax rate of 2.5-3.2 for high-earners who stayed. These responses together eroded 45.2% of state windfall tax revenues within the first year and 60.9% within two years, with the extensive margin accounting for 9.5% of this total. You may purchase this paper on-line in .pdf format from SSRN.com ($5) for electronic delivery. Access to NBER Papers You are eligible for a free download if you are a subscriber, a corporate associate of the NBER, a journalist, an employee of the U.S. federal government with a ".GOV" domain name, or a resident of nearly any developing country or transition economy. If you usually get free papers at work/university but do not at home, you can either connect to your work VPN or proxy (if any) or elect to have a link to the paper emailed to your work email address below. The email address must be connected to a subscribing college, university, or other subscribing institution. Gmail and other free email addresses will not have access. E-mail:

Acknowledgments Machine-readable bibliographic record - MARC, RIS, BibTeX Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w26349