ALBANY — If the school board did nothing, the Albany school district would face a $7.4 million deficit and a 6.4 percent tax hike.

That, however, is highly unlikely, say school officials who stress that they are just now getting out their budget knives and are looking at ways to keep the spending plan – and subsequent taxes – to a realistic level for the 2019-20 school year.

“We know that’s not the final number,” said Bill Hogan, deputy superintendent for business and finance.

The current budget of approximately $249.4 million – nearly a quarter billion dollars – came with a 40 percent share of state funding.

Another 46 percent comes from local property taxes. Homeowners pay $21.93 cents per thousand, counting the STAR tax break. That means the owner of a $160,000 home who gets the STAR exemption pays about $3,500 in school taxes.

Increases have been modest in recent years, averaging 0.63 percent for the past five years. The current year brought a 1.33 percent increase for the district, which serves about 9,400 students and another 2,100 in charter schools.

“We’ve done a good job over the last five years to kind of stabilize and back off on the tax levy,” Hogan said.

Photo: Times Union

One unknown for this year, though, is the amount of state aid that will be available, especially in light of the state's $2.3 billion deficit that Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Comptroller Tom DiNapoli revealed in recent weeks. The result of lower-than-expected state tax revenues, the shortfall could mean less money is available for school aid.

“We’re still trying to figure out the implications of the $2.3 billion deficit they announced,” said Hogan.

For one thing, Hogan said he believes lawmakers, as they have done in the past, will come up with their own budget projections that aren’t as pessimistic as the governor's outlook. That could free up more state money.

“We’re not where we’d like to be at this stage of the process. It certainly is gloomier than it has been in recent years, but we are hopeful that the picture may change at the state level. That could give us a little more breathing space,” said Hogan.

Either way, school officials are already figuring that some wanted additions to their staff of about 1,800 won’t happen this year.

Programs or classes such as percussion or other electives, may have to wait since there is no money for a specialized teacher.

Other wished-for items that may be on hold include additional positions teaching dance, art and health, according to early budget documents.

Other jobs already removed from consideration are an additional English teacher, a family and consumer science teacher, as well as technology, art, Chinese language and French teachers. Those new jobs, some of which were part-time, were requested for O’Neal middle school, according to a budget presentation.

Those aren’t cuts but instead jobs that school leaders want to add but can’t afford.

On the other hand, ongoing state mandates may lead to some additional hires, such as a science teacher position, for covering the lab as classroom lectures.

The Albany district serves a lot of underprivileged students, many of who may need extra attention or help to achieve success. The district, for example, provides free breakfast and lunch for all students who want it.

There is also a wide array of after-school activities and efforts to get parents involved in their kids’ education.

There are two big deadlines for Albany and other schools: The April 1 state budget deadline and the May 21 budget vote. As April approaches, local lawmakers will push to maximize the amount of state help they can get, despite the projected deficit.

“We’re heading for some sobering times here, but the support for education does remain strong,” said Albany Democratic Assemblywoman Patricia Fahy.

rkarlin@timesunion.com • 518-454-5758 • @RickKarlinTU