So is the Nintendo Switch a strategic, er, switch?

Not really. Nintendo faced a choice: fight Sony and Microsoft for hard-core game fans, or try a new way of appealing to casual gamers. It chose the latter. The Nintendo Switch, to judge from the company’s early marketing, is aimed at people who like games enough to want to play them on dedicated hardware (not just a smartphone) but not so much that they will lock themselves in their rooms all day with a PlayStation or an Xbox. The question is whether enough of those people exist. Serkan Toto, a game industry analyst in Tokyo, doubts it. Nintendo “masterfully captured” casual gamers with the Wii, he wrote on Twitter, but today few are likely to turn away from their phones, especially when it means paying several hundred dollars for a console. “It will be very, very difficult to get them back.”

What does Nintendo have to get right?

Everything, according to Mr. Toto. “They absolutely need to hit all the bases this time,” he said. That includes persuading developers to make lots of high-quality games for the machine. It also means getting the price right. Even committed console buyers are willing to jump between brands if it means getting a better deal; with casual gamers, a steep price could “break the device’s neck,” Mr. Toto said.

What if the Nintendo Switch is a dud?

That would be bad for Nintendo, obviously, but the company is about more than just hardware — especially recently. After years of hostility toward smartphone gaming, it has pivoted to an “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em” approach. And that’s beginning to pay off, as shown by its success in turning its Pokémon franchise into a huge smartphone hit. Its future could lie in unlocking similar value from a game catalog that includes Mario Brothers, Zelda and other popular titles.