Leading up to 2019 MLB Opening Day on Thursday, the focus of front offices across the league will be creative bookkeeping. The Yankees are dealing with with a shoulder injury to Luis Severino, while the Dodgers have watched as ace Clayton Kershaw has struggled to overcome a shoulder injury of his own. L.A. is also managing the workload of 24-year-old Walker Buehler, who pitched 137.1 innings last year. Despite having pitching staffs that aren't yet 100 percent, the Yankees and Dodgers still have two of the highest projected 2019 MLB win totals at 97 and 92.5, respectively. But can they hit those numbers if Severino or Kershaw winds up missing more time than expected? Those are the types of questions you have to consider when making 2019 MLB picks on season-long win totals. So, before you enter any 2019 MLB projections, consult the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulated the entire season 10,000 times and found five MLB teams whose Vegas win totals are way off. This same model crushed the 2018 NFL schedule and is beating the books in NBA and college basketball, so you'll want to see what it has to say.

The model performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com the past three years when it came to picking games straight up. Moreover, the model has returned more than $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks the past two years and is up more than $4,000 this season alone on top-rated NBA plays.

Now, it's locked in on Vegas' 2019 MLB win totals. We can tell you the model says the Baltimore Orioles fail to hit their 2019 MLB win total of 57.5.

After an abysmal 2018 season in which the Orioles lost 115 games, both bookmakers and the model project that the Orioles begin making improvements after bottoming out. However, the model disagrees with Vegas about how much they'll improve because they're still focused on their farm system and primarily added replacement-caliber players.

Their most notable addition of the offseason was signing Nate Karns in free agency. However, he's coming off surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome and hasn't pitched since the summer of 2017. Transactions like that won't move teams up the ladder very quickly and Baltimore hasn't been losing long enough to have built a farm system that can help in a meaningful way. That's why the model projects 55 wins for the Orioles, going under their projected win total of 57.5.

The model also generated huge disparities on four other teams, including the Kansas City Royals. They finished with 58 wins last season in a dismal season. Oddsmakers have set their season-win total at 69, and the projection model has a strong opinion on the 2019 fortunes for a Kansas City team that won the World Series four years ago.

So which teams sail past their projected win totals? And how many wins will every single MLB team have this season? Visit SportsLine now to get the five best season win total bets, plus see every team's projected record, all from an advanced computer model that keeps crushing its picks, and find out.