CON 41% (-6); LAB 44% (+14); LD 6% (-2); UKIP 2% (-2); Others 8% (-3) Survation for Good Morning Britain - Monday June 19th Link to tables: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/GMB-June-17th.xlsx Headline voting intention results (change since June 5th) CON 41% (-1); LAB 44% (+4); LD 6% (N/C); UKIP 2% (-1); Others 8% (-1) Methodology: Survation interviewed 1,005 UK residents aged 18+ using a combination of demographically pre-balanced mobile and landline data, conducting fieldwork 16th – 17th June. Voting intention results (change since Poll 1 May 9th) CON 41% (-6); LAB 44% (+14); LD 6% (-2); UKIP 2% (-2); Others 8% (-3) Poll 1 9th May 15th May 22nd May 30th May 5th June 19th June CON 47% 48% 43% 43% 41% 41% LAB 30% 30% 34% 37% 40% 44% CON Lead 17% 18% 9.0% 6% 1% -3%

Survation’s methodology, unique in the industry, predicted GE 2017 accurately. We did not have a special “turnout filter” - simply put, we took people at their word in terms of their intention for vote for a party. Other polling companies chose, to varying degrees, to disregard what voters told them, boosting their CON lead over Labour in their headline numbers. Full details here: http://survation.com/survation-most-accurate-pollster/

Today's Poll There has been a dramatic change in the fortunes of the two main parties since we conducted our first poll for GMB, on May 9th, with Labour having come up from 17 points behind the Conservatives, to 4 points ahead in our latest poll. A number of possible trends have emerged from this six week period that we will explore in more detail in the coming days. There was certainly some net switching of Conservative voters to Labour. Conservative policies such as the ending of the triple lock, the so called “dementia tax” and the introduction of means tested winter fuel payments may have discouraged older Conservative voters from turning out. Labour benefited much more than expected from the decline in the vote share for UKIP. Working class voters in areas like the North and the Midlands did not, as had been thought likely, switch to the Conservatives from UKIP, but instead returned to voting Labour. Where UKIP voters did switch to the Conservatives in large numbers, it was mainly in seats that were already safely Conservative. The stated turnout among the young (of which there are only rough estimates at this stage) in this election increased significantly above the 2015 levels of around 43% and 50% for the 18-24 and 25-34 groups. Voters who had previously voted Lib Dem, in both 2010 and 2015, did not return to the party, with Lib Dem vote share contracting nationally from the last election. If an election was called tomorrow, our latest figures would make Labour the largest party in terms of seats, but still short of an overall majority (source http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ 0 Party 2017 Votes 2017 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats CON 43.5% 318 41.0% 2 37 -35 283 LAB 41.0% 262 44.0% 46 0 +46 308 LIB 7.6% 12 6.0% 0 2 -2 10 UKIP 1.9% 0 2.0% 0 0 +0 0 Green 1.7% 1 1.0% 0 0 +0 1 SNP 3.1% 35 3.1% 1 9 -8 27 PlaidC 0.5% 4 0.5% 0 1 -1 3 Minor 0.7% 0 2.4% 0 0 +0 0 N.Ire 18 0 0 +0 18 Questions Imagine there was a referendum tomorrow with the question “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” How would you vote? (Undecided refused removed) Remain 51% Leave 49%

Do you support or oppose the following statement? “There should be another referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU when negotiations are complete”. Support 38% Oppose 57% Don’t know 4% What would you say is the number one issue that decided your vote at the last General Election? Brexit 12% NHS 10% Tribal Loyalty (always vote Labour / Conservative etc) 8% Economy 8% Party Leader 8% Immigration 7% Welfare 3% Education 3% Local Candidate 2% Housing 1% Defence 1% The cost of Living <1% Pensions and retirement <1% Other (please state/write) 27% Don’t know 8% Do you support or oppose the following statement? “Theresa May should resign as Prime Minister following the General Election result”. Support 45% Oppose 48% Don’t know 7% Which of the following party leaders do you trust the most to negotiate the best deal for Britain leaving the EU? Theresa May 52% Jeremy Corbyn 39% Don’t know 9% Which of the following is closest to your view? The current Conservative-led government will be best to negotiate a good deal for Britain leaving the EU 35% A coalition of all political parties, would be best to negotiate a good deal for Britain leaving the EU 60% Don’t know 5% Brexit negotiations are due to begin on June 19th. In light of the General Election result, which of the following is closest to your view? Brexit negotiations should be delayed 32% Brexit negotiations should not be delayed 65% Don’t know 3% In the light of the General Election result, which of the following do you prefe A “hard” Brexit, involving leaving the EU single market and customs union 35% A “soft” Brexit, not involving leaving the EU single market and customs union 55% Don’t know 10%

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