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Last week, the EU moved to punish Poland over its refusal to accept refugees by taking away its voting powers in the European Council. But if the row escalates much further it could push Poland out of the bloc, according to Renata Mienkowska, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw. Ms Mienkowska explained the EU is unlikely to be able to punish Poland, which has refused to accept refugees into the country since the refugee crisis began in 2015. It will need a unanimous vote by all other EU members to ban Poland from voting on the European Council.

But the bloc is unlikely to achieve this, given the EU has also moved to punish Hungary and the Czech Republic for the same transgression, and the three nations are likely to back once another. Ms Mienkowska told Die Zeit: “The EU has tried to intervene on several occasions, but too little and too late. “Unanimity is needed for the withdrawal of the right to vote in the European Council - it does not exist because Hungary is on the side of Poland. “Only action against both countries at once would work. But within the EU people still shy away from this last resort.”

Getty Poland has clashed with the EU over refugees

Given this option probably will not work, the next step would be to bring Poland in line on the refugee issue by twisting its arm financially. But this could have the opposite effect to what the EU desires, and send the Polish government out of the EU entirely. Ms Mienkowska said: “If need be, it would be possible to intervene by restricting EU funds. “However the government may have no interest in remaining in the EU after 2020, after the next parliamentary election and at the beginning of the new EU budget period. If it does not pay off financially, Poland could say goodbye.

“It hurts me to say that, but an EU exit from Poland is absolutely possible.” She said she did not believe prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki wanted Poland to still be in the EU in three years’ time. The refugee dispute is the latest in a series of clashes between the EU and Poland's ruling Law and Justice party. In his first policy speech since being sworn in as prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki said he was opposed to a multi-speed Europe and Warsaw wants to have a say in forming the future of the bloc. Deeper eurozone integration has been dubbed a "multi-speed" Europe because it would lead to different rates of convergence within the 28-member bloc.

Getty Polish PM Morawiecki has railed against EU plans for a 'multi-speed' Europe