Even before Jeb Bush's uninspiring debate performance Wednesday night, his sputtering presidential campaign was working to prevent defections.

Bush's top lieutenants convened with donors in sopping wet Houston on Monday to calm their fears and retrench for the unforgiving haul ahead.



After the confab, Bush's team distributed a 45-page PowerPoint presentation to select reporters, summarizing an optimistic view of the race, touting the Republican candidate's cash and organization, and assuring supporters that early polls are rarely indicative of ultimate success.

But in that leak to select media, the campaign purposely left out more than half of what was furnished behind closed doors.

The full presentation, obtained exclusively by U.S. News, spans 112 pages and includes a trove of new details, including Bush's internal polling, his vote goal in Iowa and his advertising plan for January.

Additionally, while the slides released to the media outlined Bush's overarching argument against Florida Sen. Marco Rubio – that he's the GOP's Barack Obama – the complete offering contains more biting, detailed slights, pointedly questioning the character and ethics of Bush's home state rival.

The document provides a rare behind-the-curtain look at the gritty details of a campaign at a crucial inflection point. Here's a breakdown of the most illuminating pieces of intelligence contained in Bush's 2016 blueprint.





"Marco Is A Risky Bet"

While the slides released to the press highlight Bush's Sunshine State endorsements and Rubio's lack of experience, another page for donor edification gets dirtier.

It's titled "Marco Is A Risky Bet," and it bullet-points Rubio's "misuse of state party credit cards, taxpayer funds and ties to scandal-tarred former Congressman David Rivera."

When Rubio was a state lawmaker, he used the state party credit card for personal expenses, a decision he later called a mistake. In 2005, he and Rivera jointly purchased a home that later faced foreclosure.

Another bullet point says Rubio's "closeness with Norman Braman, who doubles as personal benefactor[,] raises major ethical questions."

Braman, a billionaire auto dealer, is expected to pour $10 million into Rubio's White House endeavor, The New York Times reports. He's also paid Rubio's wife to oversee his charitable work.

The Bush team also mocks Rubio's "tomorrow versus yesterday" argument as one that would be "widely ridiculed by media" should he run against the first potential female president.

The most cryptic slight is left for last: "Those who have looked into Marco's background in the past have been concerned with what they have found."

A Bush aide says that line refers to concerns Mitt Romney's team unearthed when they vetted Rubio for vice president in 2012.

Private Polling in New Hampshire



An internal poll conducted by Bush's campaign of the New Hampshire primary on Oct. 19 and 20 showed Ohio Gov. John Kasich tied with Bush for third place.

Bush's pollsters, Brenda Wigger Gianiny and David Hill, found Donald Trump leading the pack with 26 percent, followed by Ben Carson at 13 percent. Bush and Kasich drew 10 percent each, followed by Rubio with 8 percent.

The campaign measured Bush's favorability rating to be 59 percent, behind Carson's 67 percent but closer to Rubio's 62 percent, Carly Fiorina's 60 percent and Trump's 57 percent. Kasich's favorability is glaringly not included on the slide. But a separate page blares: "Jeb Taking Kasich Voters in NH" and shows their recent trajectories in public polling.

Other slides were inserted to ease anxiety, including one noting that early polls are volatile and have produced a "carousel of frontrunners."

Internal Bush polling also found that only a minuscule amount of voters had "firmly decided" on a candidate, but that Trump counted the most supporters who had made up their mind, at 9 percent.

Somewhat surprisingly, Bush's data found that national security and foreign policy (25 percent) ranked higher on the list of voter concerns than jobs and the economy (20 percent).

And while a majority found Bush would strengthen the military "because he's been endorsed by 13 Medal of Honor recipients," a third of GOPers said Bush "unfortunately relies upon the same core military advisors that his father and brother used."

Bush also won high scores in all three early primary states for his governmental reform plans, which include a law that would dock the pay of members of Congress when they miss votes and hearings. That could explain why Bush tried to use Rubio's poor attendance record against him in Wednesday night's debate. But Rubio was prepared for the incoming attack, and there's little evidence voters will hold his missed votes against him.

$11 Million Ad Blitz in January



The Bush campaign has allotted $10.8 million for an advertising blitz to begin just after the new year, on Jan. 5.

The biggest investment is in New Hampshire, which will vote Feb. 9. Bush has slated $5.6 million for five weeks of broadcast and cable television, radio and digital advertising purchases. The Granite State is seen as close to a must-win for Bush as anything could be. He's made 16 trips there so far, according to The Chase presidential tracker – double the time that he's spent in Iowa.

Bush also will spend $2.7 million on commercials in South Carolina over a seven-week span, ahead of the Feb. 20 first-in-the-South primary.

He's devoting just $1.4 million to Iowa over the four weeks ahead of the Feb. 1 caucuses.

The smallest portion of the pie goes to Nevada, which will hold caucuses on Feb. 23. Bush has earmarked just $191,000 so far for conservative radio, digital and Hispanic media.

All the numbers are likely to change going forward based on resources.

But the campaign also previewed the types of ads it would run, listing "Denisha," a story about an African-American student who took advantage of Bush's voucher program, as a potential spot.



Another pre-produced video called "Why I'm Running" is an upbeat, slickly produced package narrated by Bush himself that could hit the airwaves in a condensed version.

Iowa Vote Goal

The Hawkeye State has always been a lesser priority for Bush, who has struggled to connect with the heavily evangelical, highly ideological base there. The blueprint underscores the delicate balancing act the campaign is seeking in Iowa – not completely writing it off but not going all in, either.

In 2012, Rick Santorum won the caucuses with 29,839 votes. Second-place Mitt Romney was just behind with 29,805.

Confronting a larger field and higher hurdles there, Bush is lowering expectations significantly, but still believes he can reach double-digits.

While he currently averages just 6 percent in polling there, Bush's vote goal, according to the document, is to attain 18 percent of the vote share, or about 23,700 votes. (About 120,000 Iowans participate in the GOP caucuses.)

But Bush's own internal barometer shows how far he needs to go to hit that goal.

The campaign identifies just 1,281 known supporters in Iowa, even after making over 70,000 calls and collecting more than 5,000 emails through mid-October.

It's hard to calculate where an 18 percent showing would place Bush against the rest of the field, but it certainly would exceed expectations.

The Takeaway

Bush is now enduring a new round of hand-wringing about his campaign after he failed to land any lasting blows against his thirsty rivals Wednesday. Some donors will inevitably begin shopping for another horse, advisers inside and out of the organization will gripe and finger-point about the strategy, and another bad round of polling is likely to drop as the calendar turns to November.

The campaign was already fed up with the armchair quarterbacking from his backers, enough to devote one slide showcasing a quote in a news story from an anonymous donor mourning Bush's "death spiral."

"Discipline Matters," the title of the slide barks.

They'll need that message to be heeded in order to make it to their fourth-quarter fundraising rollout, scheduled for Dec. 5 at the trendy Art Basel in Miami. The event is called, "Pop Art, Politics & Jeb."