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“They have to have a lopsided gain from the undecideds.”

That undecided vote stands at 22 per cent, which provides some flexibility, said Henry, but the danger for the NDP is that 50 per cent of those polled say the governing party has had a negative effect on their lives.

“When that’s double the opposite, that’s a problem,” he said.

And while the NDP has made gains in popularity, those have largely been in areas where they were already leading, which doesn’t help their seat count, said Henry.

“That makes your vote very inefficient,” he said.

He noted the tail end of the poll was conducted just as evidence was emerging suggesting collusion between UCP Leader Jason Kenney’s 2017 leadership campaign and that of one-time Wildrose party president Jeff Callaway.

Kenney continues to deny the Callaway campaign was run to benefit his own, but Henry said the impact of honesty in the campaign could still fall along partisan lines.

At her campaign launch in Calgary on Tuesday, Premier Rachel Notley was asked if she could overcome years of negative polling in a four-week campaign.

“Polls don’t decide elections, voters do,” she said.

She also defended her government’s record in helping the city during the economic doldrums, citing major infrastructure projects it has funded along with efforts at diversification, including $100 million for high-tech ventures.

But Henry said of 30 Calgary-area seats, there are probably only six the NDP has a chance of winning, “and the NDP isn’t leading in any of them.”

The governing party could be competitive in a few ridings in the province’s north and in Lethbridge, but the UCP generally has rural areas locked up, added Henry.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

BKaufmann@postmedia.com

on Twitter: @BillKaufmannjrn