Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. You don't improve four years in a row

Despite turbulent waters, the ship still sails. For two years, Utah has achieved the level of "league average Pac-12 team." Considering the depth of the conference and turnover in the coaching booth, that's a pretty good thing. But despite renewed job security, Kyle Whittingham will probably struggle to make further improvements. The Utes are likely destined again for the No. 25-40 range in the rankings. For now, holding your own in an awesome league has to be enough. -- The 2015 Utah guide

Shows what I know. Utah and Whittingham managed to exceed my expectations, if only by a little bit. The Utes raced to a 6-0 start by holding off Michigan and Cal at home and beating the everliving daylights out of Oregon on the road. After losing three of five, they finished with wins over pseudo-rival Colorado and longtime rival BYU to reach the 10-win mark for the first time in their Pac-12 existence.

Utah's F/+ ranking over the last three years: 32nd, 29th, 22nd. The win total in that span: five, nine, 10.

After a four-year stumble following a 13-0 2008, Whittingham's Utes have reestablished themselves as a competitive, top-30 program. Whittingham has dragged the program forward despite nearly constant turnover on his coaching staff and revenue that doesn't quite match that of most of the Pac-12.

And now he's outlasted his BYU counterpart, Bronco Mendenhall, who left for Virginia. Kalani Sitake, Whittingham's former defensive coordinator, now leads the Cougars.

The short version (Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports)



2016 projected wins: 6.6



Projected S&P+ ranking: 39 (6 in Pac-12)



5-year recruiting ranking: 46 (9 in Pac-12)



Biggest strength: The pass defense should be fantastic, with a well-seasoned secondary and pass rusher Kylie Fitts.



Biggest question mark: Does this offense have any big-play threats? Any at all?



Biggest 2016 game: Besides the obvious (BYU, Sept. 10), we'll say at Cal (Oct. 1). It is a tossup game that will determine whether Utah is fighting for a bowl bid or a division title.



Summary: Utah loses enough on offense that a fourth straight year of improvement appears unlikely. But the Utes' defense should again be strong, and ... it feels weird to have low expectations for a Whittingham team. 6.6: 39 (6 in Pac-12): 46 (9 in Pac-12): The pass defense should be fantastic, with a well-seasoned secondary and pass rusher Kylie Fitts.: Does this offense have any big-play threats? Any at all?: Besides the obvious (BYU, Sept. 10), we'll say at Cal (Oct. 1). It is a tossup game that will determine whether Utah is fighting for a bowl bid or a division title.Utah loses enough on offense that a fourth straight year of improvement appears unlikely. But the Utes' defense should again be strong, and ... it feels weird to have low expectations for a Whittingham team.

Now here's where I doubt Whittingham and the Utes again. And I've got math on my side.

With 11 years of F/+ ratings in our back pocket, here's what we know about continuous improvement. On average, only about 50.4 percent of FBS teams improve their F/+ ranking over the previous year, only about 19.7 percent improve twice in a row, 6.1 percent improve for three years in row, and 1.5 percent improve for four years in a row.

It's really hard to move up each year in a zero-sum universe. There are more good coaches than there are successful coaching performances. Even if you are an excellent coach, and even if you establish a winning trajectory, you still hit potholes.

So this is where Utah regresses, at least temporarily, right? Maybe? There are still games to be won in a division where Colorado is still struggling and where the Arizona schools are resetting. But it is very rare to improve for four years in a row.

If Utah regresses a bit in 2016, it will be because of the offense.

Whittingham kept his staff mostly intact this year, and offensive co-coordinators Aaron Roderick and Jim Harding return. This is the first time since 2008 that he'll have the same offensive coordinator arrangement for two straight years.

But he has to replace his top two quarterbacks, his top rusher, his top three wideouts, and a three-year starting center. Returning production is at a minimum, and even though the offense wasn't great, you still tend to regress when you lose the basic components of your passing game.

Whittingham is one of the best in the country at piecing together a salty two-deep through disparate recruiting outlets -- local JUCOs, unrated or low-rated Utah high schoolers, and second-tier options from California and Florida -- and he will do so again in 2016. But further progress will be difficult this fall. Just like I thought it would be last year.

This is Bill C's daily preview series, working its way through every 2016 team. Catch up on the Pac-12 so far!

Record: 10-3 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 22 | Final S&P+ Rk: 27 Date Opponent Opp. F/+ Rk Score W-L Percentile

Performance Win

Expectancy vs. S&P+ Performance

vs. Vegas 3-Sep Michigan 8 24-17 W 73% 42% +5.0 +1.0 11-Sep Utah State 53 24-14 W 72% 70% 0.0 -4.0 19-Sep at Fresno State 103 45-24 W 55% 64% +6.6 +6.0 26-Sep at Oregon 23 62-20 W 98% 100% +57.4 +53.0 10-Oct California 29 30-24 W 68% 58% -6.1 -1.5 17-Oct Arizona State 50 34-18 W 95% 100% +8.1 +9.5 24-Oct at USC 17 24-42 L 53% 31% -12.2 -14.5 31-Oct Oregon State 107 27-12 W 70% 94% -12.0 -9.0 7-Nov at Washington 13 34-23 W 84% 83% +17.1 +12.5 14-Nov at Arizona 77 30-37 L 32% 10% -17.8 -13.0 21-Nov UCLA 28 9-17 L 47% 14% -9.4 -10.0 28-Nov Colorado 94 20-14 W 69% 79% -14.8 -10.5 19-Dec vs. BYU 35 35-28 W 81% 80% +6.2 +4.5

Category Offense Rk Defense Rk S&P+ 30.8 53 19.4 14 Points Per Game 30.6 55 22.3 31

2. Course correction

I got yelled at by Utah fans a lot in the opening weeks of 2015. S&P+ liked the Utes but didn't LOVE them. Their brief rise to No. 3 in the AP poll, sparked by a stunning destruction of Oregon, only moved the S&P+ needle so much when combined with decent-not-great performances against Fresno State, Cal, and Utah State. The Utes didn't appear to be following a sustainable formula, and the late-October course correction was a little bit mean.

First 6 games :

Record: 6-0 | Average percentile performance: 77% (~top 30) | Performance vs. S&P+ projection: +11.8 PPG (+2.7 without Oregon) | Yards per play: Utah 5.6, Opp 5.3 (+0.3)

: Record: 6-0 | Average percentile performance: 77% (~top 30) | Performance vs. S&P+ projection: +11.8 PPG (+2.7 without Oregon) | Yards per play: Utah 5.6, Opp 5.3 (+0.3) Last 7 games :

Record: 4-3 | Average percentile performance: 62% (~top 50) | Performance vs. S&P+ projection: -6.1 PPG | Yards per play: Opp 5.1, Utah 4.7 (-0.4)

Utah followed a loss at USC with a good performance against Oregon State and a great one against an improving Washington. Then they played maybe their two worst games against division rivals Arizona and UCLA before rebounding.

Perhaps the good news is that, even if or when the offense does regress in 2016, this is a defense-driven team. In Utah's four best games (i.e. the four in which they hit the 81st percentile or higher), the Utes only averaged 5.3 yards per play, only a little bit better than what they averaged in the other nine (5.0). The defense, meanwhile, allowed just 4.8 yards per play in those games, impressive considering all four opponents ranked in the Off. S&P+ top 50.

This Utah defense has a lot to replace in the front seven, where three of the top four linemen and each of the top three linebackers are gone. But there's continuity in the back, where you tend to need it the most. And if we assume that the front seven is only going to fall so far -- it's hard to imagine a Utah that doesn't have boulders and missiles up front -- then the defense should still be solid enough to win quite a few games.

Offense

Q1 Rk 42 1st Down Rk 84 Q2 Rk 87 2nd Down Rk 80 Q3 Rk 88 3rd Down Rk 115 Q4 Rk 82

3. He kept his coordinators? You can do that?

Andy Ludwig in 2008. Dave Schramm in 2009. Schramm and Aaron Roderick in 2010. Norm Chow in 2011. Brian Johnson in 2012. Dennis Erickson in 2013. Dave Christensen in 2014.

Since 2008, Utah has only once featured an offense that ranked better than 38th in Off. S&P+. The Ute attack has rarely been bad -- it has only twice ranked worse than 54th in that span -- but it has rarely been potent.

At least part of the reason has been a complete lack of continuity. But after Christensen left, a funny thing happened: The new guys actually stayed.

The Harding-Roderick attack was run-first, efficiency-based, and not all that dissimilar to the Christensen attack of 2014. The main difference was that the tempo was a little bit slower. And when your defense is quite a bit stronger than your offense, it's only fair that the offense allow for some rest.

This was a relatively safe attack despite the fact that Utah had an experienced QB. It probably won't be any less stolid with a newbie behind center, especially with speedy junior running back Troy McCormick returning after missing last year with injury. The run personnel is far more proven than the pass personnel.

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp

Rate Sacks Sack Rate Yards/

Att. Travis Wilson 195 314 2095 13 10 62.1% 21 6.3% 5.8 Kendal Thompson 28 36 220 1 1 77.8% 0 0.0% 6.1 Chase Hansen 6'3, 212 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8866 0 1 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0 Brandon Cox 6'2, 205 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8512 Troy Williams 6'2, 200 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8737

















Tyler Huntley 6'1, 190 Fr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8640

4. The starting quarterback will be ... somebody

When JUCO transfer Troy Williams, a four-star prospect per Rivals, signed with Utah in February, it was easy to assume he would end up starting in 2016. And he might! But Williams got dinged up in the spring, and junior Brandon Cox took advantage of first-string reps.

Heading into fall camp, Whittingham says Williams, Cox, and incoming freshman Tyler Huntley will all have a shot at the job. (Former four-star Chase Hansen took a few snaps at QB last season but mostly played safety and will probably do so again.)

Whoever wins will have some decent insurance policies. The line returns five players who started at least seven games last year, plus four-star sophomore Jackson Barton and four-star JUCO Garrett Bolles. The Utes were strong in short-yardage and did a decent job of protecting Travis Wilson, who was a sack-prone scrambler as a younger player.

Other solid assets for any new QB:

Senior running back Joe Williams, who took over for an injured Devontae Booker late in the year and did well, rushing 60 times for 308 yards against UCLA and Colorado. He suffered from the same efficiency issues as the bruising Booker, who was good at plowing ahead for two or three yards but rarely five or six. Still, he was more efficient, and he's only begun life as a regular.

Tight ends Harrison Handley and Siale Fakailoatonga, who combined for 33 catches, a 67 percent catch rate, and a decent (but not great) 51 percent success rate.

Lanky receiver Tim Patrick, who caught nearly three-quarters of his passes in 2014 before missing 2015.

None of these guys are likely big-play artists. But if you're looking to build confidence for your new QB by being able to create third-and-manageable situations, they will help significantly. And once in third-and-manageable, you have McCormick, who is both explosive and apparently good at blitz pickup.

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Rushes Yards TD Yards/

Carry Hlt Yds/

Opp. Opp.

Rate Fumbles Fum.

Lost Devontae Booker RB 268 1261 11 4.7 4.3 34.0% 4 3 Travis Wilson QB 119 654 7 5.5 5.0 45.4% 8 1 Joe Williams RB 5'11, 205 Sr. 2 stars (5.3) NR 104 477 3 4.6 3.6 38.5% 2 2 Troy McCormick

(2014) RB 5'9, 178 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8449 30 178 1 5.9 6.6 40.0% 1 1 Kendal Thompson QB 19 55 2 2.9 4.1 26.3% 1 1 Bubba Poole WR 11 28 1 2.5 5.0 18.2% 1 0 Britain Covey WR 6 4 0 0.7 5.0 16.7% 0 0 Chase Hansen QB 6'3, 212 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8866 4 31 0 7.8 4.5 50.0% 0 0 Marcus Sanders-Williams RB 5'11, 230 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8429 Marcel Manalo RB 5'11, 220 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8560 Armand Shyne RB 6'0, 200 Jr. NR NR Zack Moss RB 5'10, 206 Fr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8389

















Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target

Rate Yds/

Target %SD Success

Rate IsoPPP Kenneth Scott WR-X 66 39 457 59.1% 20.1% 6.9 54.5% 48.5% 1.29 Britain Covey WR-H

60 43 519 71.7% 18.2% 8.7 66.7% 46.7% 1.74 Devontae Booker RB 47 37 318 78.7% 14.3% 6.8 55.3% 46.8% 1.27 Harrison Handley TE 6'5, 250 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8284 33 21 286 63.6% 10.0% 8.7 60.6% 48.5% 1.77 Bubba Poole WR-H 29 24 145 82.8% 8.8% 5.0 72.4% 51.7% 0.85 Tyrone Smith WR-Z 6'4, 205 So. NR NR 28 18 193 64.3% 8.5% 6.9 35.7% 42.9% 1.31 Tim Patrick (2014) WR 6'5, 210 Sr. 2 stars (5.3) NR 22 16 177 72.7% 6.2% 8.0 59.1% N/A N/A Siale Fakailoatonga TE 6'4, 255 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8578 16 12 120 75.0% 4.9% 7.5 50.0% 56.2% 1.16 Joe Williams RB 5'11, 205 Sr. 2 stars (5.3) NR 16 11 84 68.8% 4.9% 5.3 43.8% 18.8% 2.53 Raelon Singleton WR-X 6'3, 210 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8545 7 6 49 85.7% 2.1% 7.0 28.6% 57.1% 0.89 Delshawn McClellon WR-X

7 1 12 14.3% 2.1% 1.7 57.1% 14.3% 0.78 Caleb Repp WR-X 6'5, 210 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8197 6 2 25 33.3% 1.8% 4.2 50.0% 33.3% 1.54 Cory Butler-Byrd WR-H 5'10, 180 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8869 4 1 54 25.0% 1.2% 13.5 75.0% 25.0% 5.75 Kenric Young WR-Z 6'1, 189 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8398 3 3 17 100.0% 0.9% 5.7 0.0% 33.3% 1.50 Evan Moeai TE 6'3, 230 Sr. NR NR 1 1 5 100.0% 0.3% 5.0 100.0% 100.0% 0.50 Kyle Fulks WR-H 5'9, 178 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8489 Alec Dana WR 6'2, 186 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8635 Demari Simpkins WR 5'10, 184 Fr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8472

5. Wanted: big plays

McCormick could be key for another reason: Utah struggled with explosiveness last year -- 49 gains of 20-plus yards in 2015, 100th in FBS -- and that was WITH Britain Covey's unexpected emergence. Covey's gone on LDS mission over the next two years, and including Patrick's 2014 season, the top three returning wideouts averaged 10.5 yards per catch.

Unless McCormick has a big year, it's hard to see how Utah improves its big-play ability. More unknown receivers like Cory Butler-Byrd, Kenric Young, and incoming freshman Demari Simpkins could figure out how to unlock defenses deeper downfield, but in terms of proven quantities, Utah is high on potential efficiency options and low on explosives. [Update: Butler-Byrd has been indefinitely suspended from the program.]

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. 2015 Starts Career Starts Honors/Notes Siaosi Aiono C 11 32 Isaac Asiata LG 6'3, 323 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8659 13 29 J.J. Dielman RT 6'5, 300 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8323 13 26 Sam Tevi LT 6'6, 305 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8585 13 13 Salesi Uhatafe RG 6'5, 315 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7985 8 13 Hiva Lutui C 6'1, 295 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8964 7 8 Jackson Barton RT 6'7, 310 So. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9043 0 0 Andrew Albers RT 0 0 Lo Falemaka C 6'5, 300 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) NR 0 0 Nick Nowakowski RG 6'1, 295 Sr. NR NR 0 0 Darrin Paulo RG 6'5, 310 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8768



Keven Dixon LT 6'5, 277 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8489



Johnny Capra RT 6'6, 300 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8488



Garrett Bolles OL 6'6, 296 Jr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9428



Jake Grant LG 6'3, 290 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8569



Tucker Scott OL 6'4, 288 Fr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8534



Scott Peck OL 6'6, 310 Fr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8349







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Defense

Q1 Rk 33 1st Down Rk 25 Q2 Rk 7 2nd Down Rk 22 Q3 Rk 13 3rd Down Rk 17 Q4 Rk 65

6. A Whittingham defense is a good defense

Whittingham has dealt with plenty of change at defensive coordinator as well, but the baseline is quite a bit higher. Utah has ranked 31st or better in Def. S&P+ in eight of the last nine seasons, and the only time the Utes were lower, they were still a decent 44th.

Last year, I noted quite a few red flags for the defense. Sitake was replaced by 72-year-old retiree John Pease, one-man pass rush Nate Orchard was gone, and so was half the two-deep in the defensive backfield.

But while the pass rush regressed, virtually nothing else did. Utah was fantastic at forcing passing downs (fifth in Standard Downs S&P+), and while the Utes played things relatively safe in those situations, the pass defense was solid, the run defense was spectacular, and Utah improved from 30th to 14th in Def. S&P+, its best defensive ranking since 2007 (10th).

So much for red flags.

When you're this consistently solid, it seems fruitless to worry too much about turnover. Sure, Pease is back to retirement, but new coordinator Morgan Scalley is an internal hire with quite a bit of experience under Whittingham. Over the last decade, since coming on as a graduate assistant in 2007, he has constantly added responsibilities. By 2015, he was safeties coach, special teams coordinator, and recruiting coordinator. Now, he's given up those latter two roles and taken control of the defense (well, as much as you can take control of a defense with Whittingham running the show).

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Jason Fanaika DE 13 40.0 6.2% 10.5 4.0 0 4 2 0 Kylie Fitts DE 6'4, 265 Sr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9572 13 31.0 4.8% 8.0 7.0 0 10 4 0 Viliseni Fauonuku DT 13 28.5 4.4% 8.5 5.0 0 0 1 0 Stevie Tu'ikolovatu DT

13 21.5 3.3% 6.0 2.0 0 2 0 1 Lowell Lotulelei DT 6'2, 310 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8778 13 19.0 2.9% 5.0 1.0 0 1 1 0 Filipo Mokofisi DT 6'3, 278 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8028 9 15.5 2.4% 3.5 1.5 0 1 0 0 Hunter Dimick DE 6'3, 272 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8162 7 10.5 1.6% 7.0 3.0 0 2 0 0 Pita Taumoepenu DE 6'1, 245 Sr. NR NR 13 8.5 1.3% 6.0 6.0 0 0 1 0 Hayden Clegg DE 6'1, 235 Sr. NR NR 13 3.5 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Pasoni Tasini DT 6'3, 295 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8056 7 2.5 0.4% 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0 Alani Havili-Katoa DT 6'3, 290 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8585 Maxs Tupai DE 6'2, 245 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8993 Leki Fotu DE 6'5, 276 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8632



















Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Gionni Paul ROV 13 86.0 13.3% 13.5 3.0 4 3 2 1 Jared Norris MAC 12 68.5 10.6% 6.5 1.0 0 5 2 0 Jason Whittingham STUD 13 17.5 2.7% 6.0 1.5 0 1 0 0 Evan Eggiman ROV 6'2, 215 Jr. NR NR 13 8.5 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0 Sharrieff Shah Jr. STUD 6'1, 225 Sr. NR NR 13 5.5 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Cody Barton ROV 6'2, 232 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8519 12 5.0 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Christian Drews MAC 6'1, 230 Jr. NR NR 13 5.0 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Uaea Masina ROV

5 4.5 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Sunia Tauteoli MAC 6'0, 220 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7907 Chris Hart STUD 6'2, 245 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8569 David Luafatasaga LB 6'4, 232 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8904 Kurtis Taufa LB 6'2, 230 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8509 Davir Hamilton LB 6'3, 208 Fr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8609



















7. This is a test

It's hard to imagine Utah not producing steady quality with its front seven, but 2016 will test that. End Jason Fanaika, the top two tackles, and a trio of active linebackers (Gionni Paul, Jared Norris, and Jason Whittingham combined for 26 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, and 12 passes defensed) are all gone.

Whittingham brought in two JUCO transfers to compete at linebacker, where no returnee made a single TFL last year. But up front, depth could hold up. Five returnees recorded at least 8.5 tackles last year, and active-as-hell Kylie Fitts is back. The UCLA transfer not only recorded seven sacks but also forced 10 fumbles and batted down 10 passes, and incredibly underrated skill. Though he wasn't particularly active in run situations, he was a one-man havoc rate on passing downs. For that matter, so was senior end Pita Taumoepenu, who recorded only 8.5 tackles last year ... six of which were sacks.

On average, turnover at linebacker doesn't have the impact that turnover in the secondary does, and if Utah can produce competence in the middle of the defense, the front and back should hold up.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Marcus Williams FS 6'1, 195 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8429 13 51.0 7.9% 2 0 5 5 0 0 Tevin Carter SS 12 43.5 6.7% 5.5 0 2 3 0 0 Justin Thomas NB 5'8, 180 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8935 13 38.0 5.9% 1 0 3 6 0 0 Reginald Porter CB 5'11, 185 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7900 12 32.5 5.0% 0 0 0 11 0 0 Dominique Hatfield CB 5'10, 175 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8355 12 30.0 4.6% 1.5 0 4 2 0 0 Cory Butler-Byrd CB 5'10, 180 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8869 13 26.0 4.0% 0.5 0 3 4 0 0 Brian Allen CB 6'3, 205 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.7700 13 21.0 3.2% 0 0 1 3 1 0 Chase Hansen S 6'3, 212 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8866 9 13.0 2.0% 1.5 1 0 1 1 0 Jason Thompson SS 6'2, 208 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7500 11 8.0 1.2% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Boobie Hobbs NB 5'10, 180 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8107 13 6.5 1.0% 0 0 0 1 0 0 Austin Lee DB 5'11, 200 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8597 7 3.0 0.5% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Andre Godfrey FS 5'10, 191 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8575 11 2.5 0.4% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tavaris Williams CB 5'11, 185 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8298 Casey Hughes SS 5'11, 195 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8117 Philip Afia DB 6'1, 195 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8537 Tyson Cisrow DB 5'10, 190 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8438



















8. Continuity where you need it

Pass defense was definitely a relative weakness last year, at least in spurts -- Utah allowed a 133.2 passer rating to Utah State and Fresno State, a 160.3 against USC, a 154.0 against Arizona, and only a 107.4 against everybody else. If problems arose, it was probably on first down: On third-and-4 or more, opponents completed only 53 of 101 passes for 730 yards, four touchdowns, and seven picks (passer rating: 112.4).

With Fitts and Taumoepenu back up front, the pass rush should still be decent. And with everyone but safety Tevin Carter back in the secondary, it's hard to imagine the pass defense doing anything but improving. Carter was strong, but Utah still has disruptive safeties in Marcus Williams, Justin Thomas, and potentially Chase Hansen. Meanwhile, every corner is back, including seniors Reginald Porter and Dominique Hatfield (combined: 4 INTs, 13 PBUs). Whittingham is comfortable enough with the cornerback unit that he okayed Cory Butler-Byrd's move from corner (where he was a four-star JUCO transfer last year) to wide receiver.

There could very well be regression in run defense, but in the pass-heavy Pac-12, Utah's pass defense might improve enough to keep the Utes in the Def. S&P+ top 15 or 20.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2016

Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20

Ratio Tom Hackett 61 48.0 9 21 23 72.1%

Kicker Ht, Wt 2016

Year Kickoffs Avg TB OOB TB% Andy Phillips 5'10, 210 Sr. 81 60.6 20 2 24.7%

Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2016

Year PAT FG

(0-39) Pct FG

(40+) Pct Andy Phillips 5'10, 210 Sr. 47-47 15-15 100.0% 8-12 66.7%

Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Returns Avg. TD Cory Butler-Byrd KR 5'10, 180 Sr. 8 27.9 1 Britain Covey KR 7 24.1 0 Britain Covey PR 21 11.7 1 Boobie Hobbs PR 5'10, 180 Jr. 9 8.8 1

Category Rk Special Teams S&P+ 16 Field Goal Efficiency 2 Punt Return Success Rate 39 Kick Return Success Rate 104 Punt Success Rate 20 Kickoff Success Rate 91

9. No more Tom Hackett :(

The Internet's favorite punter has moved on. JUCO transfer Mitch Wishnowsky, or whoever else might fill Hackett's shoes, has a lot to live up to in both the personality department and the "averaging 48 yards per punt" department.

Luckily, Utah still has some special teams strengths despite losing both Hackett and a strong punt returner in Britain Covey. Butler-Byrd returned a kickoff for a touchdown (though he was incredibly all-or-nothing), Boobie Hobbs took one of his nine punt returns to the house, and Andy Phillips is an incredible place-kicker. The distance on his kickoffs could stand to improve, but this is still almost certainly a top-40 special teams unit.

2016 Schedule Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 1-Sep Southern Utah NR 25.9 93% 10-Sep BYU 35 2.9 57% 17-Sep at San Jose State 92 9.1 70% 23-Sep USC 8 -6.0 36% 1-Oct at California 49 -0.5 49% 8-Oct Arizona 64 8.6 69% 15-Oct at Oregon State 86 7.1 66% 22-Oct at UCLA 12 -12.2 24% 29-Oct Washington 10 -5.7 37% 10-Nov at Arizona State 57 0.6 51% 19-Nov Oregon 18 -3.7 41% 26-Nov at Colorado 82 6.5 65% Projected wins: 6.6

Five-Year F/+ Rk 13.8% (41) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 43 / 46 2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 13 / 8.6 2015 TO Luck/Game +1.7 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 55% (35%, 76%) 2015 Second-order wins (difference) 8.2 (1.8)

10. Same strengths, same weaknesses?

It's not hard to see why Utah is projected to regress -- the offense has to replace production in key areas, and a dominant front seven is retooling.

But while the quality might shift downward, it appears Utah still has the personnel to be a Whittingham-style team. That means attempting to pound away on the ground, leveraging opponents into passing downs, and winning the special teams battle. If the quarterback is up to snuff, Utah should be efficient enough to define the game on its terms, even if the Utes don't have the offensive play-makers to threaten 10 wins again.

Whether Utah regresses a little or a lot, though, could dictate a pretty significant shift in win projection. Per S&P+, Utah is given a greater than 70 percent chance of winning in one game and a greater than 70 percent chance of losing in one game. Ten games fall between 36 and 69 percent, and four fall between 41 and 57. Quick adapting by the new quarterback and new linebackers, or the emergence of a big-play weapon or two on offense, or simple luck of the bounce could make the difference between 5-7 and 9-3.