“The Arctic environmental system has reached a “new normal”

By NUNATSIAQ NEWS

You won’t find much encouraging news in the 2017 Arctic Report Card.

The annual update on how the Arctic is faring environmentally, released Dec. 12 by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, says you have to look back more than 1,500 years—“and likely longer than that”—to find such a rapid and large-scale mix of sea ice decline and warming temperatures in the Arctic.

Over much of the past 350,000 years, you would have seen regions of year-round sea ice in the Arctic, along with occasional ice-free periods.

That pattern lasted until about 5,000 years ago, when modern sea ice conditions developed, the report card says, but now “the Arctic Ocean is presently experiencing changes in ocean temperature and sea ice extent that are unprecedented in the observational time period.”

And there appears to be little chance of turning back to what we used to know.

“There are many strong signals that continue to indicate that the Arctic environmental system has reached a ‘new normal,'” the report card says.

These signals include those higher temperatures in the Arctic Ocean, which delay the formation of sea ice in the autumn.

That will come as no surprise to the south Baffin community of Pangnirtung, which experienced record-breaking warm temperatures last month and where residents, even in early December, headed out boating on waters that in years past would have been frozen.

As well, warm temperatures continue to thaw the Arctic’s permafrost, the report card says.

Major findings of the 93-page report include:

• Warmer air temperature: Arctic air temperature continues to increase at double the rate of the global mean air temperature increase. The average annual air temperature over land was the second highest after 2016 in the observational record, with a temperature 1.6 C above the average for 1981 to 2010. The Arctic Report Card 2016 also pointed to increased Arctic warming and Arctic air temperatures, which were the highest since 1900.

• Declining sea ice: This year’s maximum winter sea ice extent, measured each March, was the lowest ever observed, while this year’s minimum sea ice extent, measured each September, was the eighth-lowest on record. Sea ice is also getting thinner each year, with year-old ice at 79 per cent and multi-year ice just 21 per cent. That’s compared to 1985, when multi-year ice accounted for 45 per cent of Arctic sea ice.

• Arctic Ocean plankton blooms increasing: Springtime melting and retreating sea ice allow more sunlight to reach the upper layers of the ocean, allowing for more plant growth in the Arctic Ocean since 2003.

• Greener tundra has increased “substantially:” Overall vegetation, including plants getting bigger and leafier, and shrubs and trees taking over grassland or tundra, increased across the Arctic in 2015 and 2016, as measured by satellites following three to four years of continuous declines.

• Snow cover: For the 12th consecutive year, snow cover in the Canadian Arctic was below average in June, with communities experiencing earlier snow melt. There has also been an overall decrease in end-of-winter snow depth on sea ice cover in the western Arctic over the past 10 years.

On the positive side, the NOAA report card notes there was less melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet. The melting began early in 2017, but slowed during a cooler summer.

However, the Greenland ice sheet continued to shink this past year, as it has since 2002 when measurements began.

“The rapid and dramatic changes we continue to see in the Arctic present major challenges and opportunities,” said retired Navy Rear Adm. Timothy Gallaudet, the acting NOAA administrator, who led the news conference to release the report card. “This year’s Arctic Report Card is a powerful argument for why we need long-term sustained Arctic observations to support the decisions that we will need to make to improve the economic well-being for Arctic communities, national security, environmental health and food security.”