17:44

In the spring, around the time Philip Hammond was preparing his first budget, some of those close to him suggested that the March budget was never intended to be that special because he was saving his big, structural changes for the autumn. Since then, the world has moved on somewhat and he came to the Commons today having made little impact with pre-budget announcements and with the expectation bar at what seemed like a Treasury all-time low. It felt as if he would be doing well not mess up.

And actually, by those criteria, he has succeeded. The budget was well received by his colleagues and, so far, nothing has fully unravelled. True, the Office for Budget Responsibility has exposed his main headline-grabbing measure, the abolition of stamp duty for first-time buyers for homes worth up to £300,000, as a £600m gimmick that will just push up prices. But, even though it would be nice to live in a world where bad policy always amounts to bad politics, sadly we don’t, and it is hard to see Hammond suffering any penalty for his home owner subsidy (apart from when he realises he has not got £600m to spend on something else). The Tory tribe (MPs and newspapers) will never complain about a tax cut, and it is not a measure that will be voted down in the Commons. (For example, we can’t even be sure Labour will vote against it.)

Otherwise, it was a mildly expansionist budget, with Hammond turning the taps on to the value of £9bn just as the UK is leaving the EU. The Tory Brexiters who view Hammond with suspicion will like the extra money for hard Brexit contingency planning. Hammond did a bit to allay concerns about universal credit. And there was some more money for the NHS. Not enough, NHS England say, and Hammond’s failure to even mention social care shows that this was not a budget with long-term ambition. But it will probably see him through. For now.

That’s all from us.

Thanks for the comments.