Hailed by Michael Salfino of the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” the Prospect Digest Handbook is a perennial favorite among baseball enthusiasts, minor league fans, and fantasy general managers. Now back for its fifth season, the Prospect Digest Handbook is the definitive guide to the minor leagues.

1. Brent Honeywell, RHP

Background: “Like a simmering pot of water, Honeywell is edging towards a boiling point. He’s entering his age-21 season and likely will spend a good chuck of it in Class AA. [He’s one] of my favorite arms in the entire minors.” – The Top 20 Breakout Prospects for 2016; The 2016 Prospect Digest Handbook. As I noted in last year’s edition, Honeywell quickly reached that aforementioned boiling point. And, well, one season later he’s moved beyond that and straight into the evaporation stage, mowing down anything that’s standing in his way, leaving a wake of unmatched, older competition in ruins. Originally drafted by the Rays in the second round of the 2014 draft out of Walters State Community College, home to only one big leaguer (Chad Bell), Honeywell has easily surpassed any lofty expectations that hover around top selections.

The wiry 6-foot-2, 180-pound right-hander blew away the Appalachian League competition during his debut, fanning 40 against just half a dozen walks in 33.2 innings of work. The Georgia-born hurler split the following season, 2015, between the Midwest and Florida State Leagues, throwing 130.1 innings with an impeccable 129-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with a 3.18 ERA. Two years ago, once again, Honeywell split time across two different levels.

After opening the year in typical Honeywell-like fashion back in High Class A, the budding ace continued to dominate in the most important minor league level: Class AA. Last season, just his fourth professional year, Honeywell was simply unhittable across his first two starts in the Southern League, throwing 13 innings with 20 strikeouts and four walks, before the front office bumped him up to the final minor league stop. And, of course, he remained brilliant.

In 24 starts with the Durham Bulls, Honeywell struck out a whopping 152 and handed out just 31 walks in 123.2 innings of work. He finished his campaign in the International League with a 3.64 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 2.77 xFIP, and 2.20 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

Projection: Let’s take a brief walk down memory lane. Here’s what I wrote two years ago in the 2016 Handbook:

“Above-average or better control, Honeywell, who’s walked just 5% of the batters he’s faced in his career, has as high of a ceiling as any pitcher in the system – including budding ace Blake Snell. Honeywell has missed a ton of bats, shows poise beyond his years, and could be in the big leagues as soon as 2017 – as another front-of-the rotation caliber arm. And Cal remains a huge fan as well, linking him to Luis Severino, Robert Stephenson, Drew Hutchison, and A.J. Cole.”

And here’s part of the analysis from last season’s Handbook:

“Again, one of the top MiLB arms in the game with a ceiling as a front-end starter – assuming the arm soreness he suffered through early last season. Oh, yeah, he throws a screwball, which is cool by itself.”

So let’s update this a bit, shall we? Let’s see how his production in the International League last season stacks up, historically speaking:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 22-year-old pitchers to post at least a 28% strikeout percentage and a walk percentage of 6.5% or less in the International League (min. 100 IP): Brent Honeywell.

That’s clearly an incredibly exclusive class. So let’s expand it. Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of pitchers – of any age – to post at least a 28% strikeout percentage and a walk percentage of 6.5% or less in the International League (min. 100 IP): Brent Honeywell.

Again, that’s pretty exclusive. So let’s expand it once again. Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s a list of 22-year-old pitcher to post at least a 28% strikeout percentage regardless of walk percentage in the International League (min. 100 IP): Brent Honeywell, Tyler Glasnow, and Jose Berrios. And here are their respective walk percentages during their age-22 season: 5.9% (Honeywell), 8.3% (Berrios), and 14.2% (Glasnow).

And, finally, let’s expand it one more time. Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s a list of pitchers – of any age – to post at least a 28% strikeout percentage in the International League (min. 100 IP): Brent Honeywell, Tyler Glasnow, Jose Berrios, Lucas Sims, and Jaime Schultz.

Simply put, Brent Honeywell is on the short list of top pitching prospects in baseball. On any continent. In any galaxy.

Ceiling: 6.0- to 6.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018 (Note: due to recent elbow surgery, his debut is delayed until 2019)

2. Willy Adames, SS

Background: Unrecognizable largely outside of his original organization. Tampa Bay wisely insisted on Adames inclusion as part of the bounty the club received in the David Price deal. The young shortstop, who was acquired along with Drew Smyly and Nick Franklin, has quietly developed into one of the game’s best up-the-middle-prospects. Despite a largely unremarkable debut showing in the Dominican Summer League in 2013, Detroit aggressively challenged the then-18-year-old prospect by sending him straight up to the Midwest League the following season. And Adames handled the promotion with aplomb: in 125 total games between Detroit’s, and later Tampa Bay’s, Midwest League affiliates, he slugged .271/.353/.429 with 19 doubles, 14 triples, and eight homeruns.

Tampa Bay bumped him up to the Florida State League the following year, 2015, and their heir apparent to the big league shortstop gig batted a respectable .258/.342/.379 with 24 doubles, six triples, and four homeruns.

Then it was onto the single most important challenge in a prospect’s career, Class AA, at the ripe ol’ age of 20. And Adames’ offensive prowess took another step forward. The Dominican-born shortstop strung together a .274/.372/.430 triple-slash line with 31 doubles, six triples, and 11 homeruns. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 35%. With little else to prove in Class AA, Tampa Bay pushed Adames up to the final minor league stop last season. He responded with another saber-friendly triple-slash line: .277/.360/.415 with a 119 wRC+.

Projection: Here’s what I wrote about Adames in the 2016 Handbook when I ranked him as Tampa Bay’s fifth best prospect:

“Similar to Jake Bauers in a sense because Adames is also one of the more underrated prospects in the game, especially considering his position (shortstop). To be fair, though, he remains a work in progress on the defensive side of the ball. With a bat in his hands, though, Adames has a solid eye at the plate – he’s walked in more than 13% of his plate appearances – with pop and a decent hit tool.”

And here’s what I wrote in last season’s Handbook when I ranked Adames as the 26th best prospect in the game:

“Fast forward a year and he’s trimmed his fringe-red-flag territory strikeout percentage down from 27% to a solid 21.3%. The power continued to grow, the patience at the plate actually jumped even higher, and his defense, according to Clay Davenport’s metrics, has been OK. If he continues to take baby steps, there’s no reason his name won’t be in the same group as Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Crawford.”

Lofty praise, right? Consider the following with respect to his work in the International League last season:

Between 2006 and 2016, here’s the list of 21-year-old hitters to post a 115-125 wRC+ mark with a double-digit walk rate in the International League (min. 400 PA): Andrew McCutchen and Melvin Upton Jr.

Adames is an incredibly efficient hitter, showcasing above-average patience, solid contact skills, and there’s 20-homer power potential. Defensively speaking, he was phenomenal last season (+7) according to Clay Davenport’s metrics.

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

3. Jake Bauers, 1B/LF/RF

Background: It seems like a lifetime away, at least to me, but the Wil Myers trade from Tampa Bay was only three-plus years ago. And, boy, was it a complicated one. Tampa Bay sent Myers, Jose Castillo, Gerardo Reyes, and Ryan Hanigan to the Padres. San Diego sent Trea Turner and Joe Ross to the Washington Nationals. And Tampa Bay received Jake Bauers, Rene Rivera, Burch Smith, Travis Ott, and Steve Souza Jr. While Souza has blossomed into a borderline All-Star caliber performer, Bauers has a shot to quietly develop into a viable, better-than-average big league regular. Another one of the system’s exceptionally saber-friendly bats, Bauers, a seventh round pick in 2013, has an extensive history of above-average production. He posted a 128 wRC+ as an 18-year-old in the Midwest League; he ripped through High Class A by tallying a 142 wRC+ in the first half of 2015 and batted a respectable .276/.329/.405 in a second half promotion to Class AA.

Then two years ago, at the age of 20, the young first baseman/corner outfielder returned to the Southern League with a flourish, slugging .274/.370/.420 with 28 doubles, one triple, and 14 homeruns. And the club, unsurprisingly, bumped him up to the International League for 2017. Bauers responded with another solid offensive showing: in 132 games, the 6-foot-1, 195-pound first baseman/corner outfielder batted .263/.368/.412 with 31 doubles, one triple, and 13 homeruns. He also swiped a career best 20 stolen bases in just 23 attempts.

Projection: Always a personal favorite of mine, I was on the Bauers Bandwagon long before it became fashionable. Here’s what I wrote in my 2015 Handbook:

“His power really seemed to be developing at the onset of [2014] when he was sporting a .169 ISO, but [it] really trailed off after that. Either way, though, he’s slugged just nine homeruns in his first 159 games. If the power takes a step forward, he has a chance to be a middle-of-the-lineup thumper. If not, maybe like an Eric Hosmer, post hype.”

Here’s what I wrote the following year, in 2016:

“Well, after noting Bauers’ power in the first part of 2014, he posted an eerily similar mark in the Florida State League last year (.166). It’s also incredibly promising that the power he showed in Class AA, .128 ISO, is also the second highest mark of his young career. He might be the best prospect you’ve never heard of – YET.”

And, finally, here’s what I wrote when I ranked him as the 80th best prospect in last year’s book:

“Solid hit tool? Check. Damn fine walk rates? Yup, got those too. Developing pop? Yes. Can the lefty-swinging first baseman handle southpaws and right-handers equally well? Yes, historically. So there’s reason to believe that last year’s struggles against lefties (.236/.344/.340) should prove to be an anomaly. CAL’s a huge fan, tying him to Freddie Freeman, Logan Morrison, and Anthony Rizzo. Not sure his power gets to that point, but he should develop into an above-average big league bat.”

First off, as I pointed out, Bauers’ production against left-handers bounced back in 2017; he slugged .279/.396/.357 against them. Secondly, let’s see how his production stacks up against his peers, historically speaking. Consider the following:

Similarly with Willy Adames, between 2006 and 2016, only two 21-year-old hitters posted a 115-125 wRC+ mark with a double-digit walk rate in the International League (min. 350 PA): Andrew McCutchen and Melvin Upton Jr.

Defensively speaking, Bauers’ production, according to Clay Davenport’s metrics, was stellar last season, the best of his career. He’s not going to be a star in the traditional sense because he lacks power, but there are a couple borderline All-Star seasons in his bat.

Ceiling: 3.5- to 4.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

Background: The irony of life is often too much for Hollywood: Arroyo, the San Francisco Giants’ first round pick in 2013, had a rough go of it last season. After spending parts of five seasons in the minor leagues, the 6-foot-1, 180-pound infielder got the call up to The Show in late April after a blazing start with the Sacramento River Cats (he slugged .439/.471/.682 in 17 games). Unfortunately, he fell flat on his face during his 33-game debut. So San Francisco sent him back down to the PCL for a little more seasoning. A couple weeks later he caught a pitch on his hand and hit the DL for a couple weeks. Then he got hit again. In the same hand. In his first game back from the DL. This time, though, the subsequent injury forced him to undergo surgery and he would miss the remaining few months of the season. Tampa Bay acquired the young infielder, along with Stephen Woods, and Denard Span for veteran All-Star third baseman Evan Longoria this offseason.

Projection: Consider the following comparison:

Player PA AVG OBP SLG ISO BB% K% SB CS Player A 1629 0.300 0.345 0.434 0.134 5.83% 14.86% 18 9 Player B 2737 0.270 0.367 0.391 0.121 13.11% 14.33% 67 35

Now some additional information:

Player A and Player B were both chosen in the first round. Player A was taken with the 25 th overall pick. Player B was taken nine picks earlier at 16.

overall pick. Player B was taken nine picks earlier at 16. Both players are nearly identical in age. They’re entering their age-23 seasons.

Both are middle infielders.

Player A hit .274/.316/.373 in Class AA two years ago and has only spent 25 games in Class AAA. Player B, on the other hand, owns a .265/.367/.402 triple-slash line in parts of two seasons in Class AA but has faltered, badly, in Class AAA, hitting a paltry .243/.342/.369 in 214 total games.

Player A has no discernible platoon splits. Player B, however, hasn’t solved lefties yet – and likely won’t.

Player A and Player B have been stout defensive players during their respective minor league players.

Finally, Player A was widely panned as an overdraft selection. While Player B was praised as a potential franchise-altering cornerstone.

Which would you take?

It’s a tough call. Player B has the better plate discipline with similar power, but his performance in Class AAA is concerning. Player A owns a better triple-slash line, but lack of patience certainly eats into his projected ceiling. But Player B’s platoon splits likely push Player A above.

Player A: Christian Arroyo.

Player B: J.P. Crawford.

Arroyo owns an above-average bat, 10- to 15-homer potential, low OBPs, and stellar defense. Add it all up and he has the makings of a slightly better than average ball player. And now that he’s no longer blocked by Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik, he’s ready to shine brightly in Tampa Bay.

Ceiling: 3.0 to 3.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017

5. Jesus Sanchez, OF

Background: Keeping with the organizational mantra, Sanchez was an incredibly under-the-radar signing on the international market. The two sides came to terms on a pact worth just $400,000 in 2014. After solid showings in the foreign and stateside rookie leagues in 2015 and 2016, Sanchez blossomed into a legitimate five-tool prospect in the Midwest League last season. In 117 games with the Bowling Green Hot Rods, the 6-foot-3, 210-pound outfielder slugged an impressive .305/.348/.478 with 29 doubles, four triples, and 15 homeruns. He also swiped seven bags in nine total tries. According to Weighted Runs Created Plus, Sanchez’s production topped the league average mark by 30%, which tied for the seventh best mark in the Midwest League in 2017.

Projection: Oh, hell, let’s just jump right into to it. Consider the following:

While not quite screaming future superstar, there’s plenty of big league value. Moustakas has put up All-Star caliber production the past three seasons. Castellanos owns a 114 wRC+ mark between 2016 and 2017. And Polanco’s sporting a career 95 wRC+.

Sanchez offers up above-average to plus-power potential, a decent eye and matching speed, and tremendous value on the defensive side of the ball, especially in a corner outfield spot.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2020

Background: Easily the most intriguing talent in college baseball in 2017 – and quite possibly over the past several seasons – McKay was not only in the running for the best hitter in last year’s draft class, but his performance as a pitcher has some thinking his future could eventually be on the mound as well. McKay, a well-built, 6-foot-2, 220-pound southpaw born in Darlington, Pennsylvania, has garnered a laundry list of accolades throughout his illustrious career. After slugging .308/.418/.431 to go along with some stellar work on the mound (96.2 IP, 1.77 ERA, 117 K, and 34 BB) as a true freshman, McKay was named ACC All-Freshman Team, ACC Freshman of the Year, Freshman All-America by several outlets (D1Baseball, Baseball America, NCBWA, Perfect Game), Collegiate Baseball Freshman of the Year, and the John Olerud Two-Way Player of the Year Award. The hulking southpaw also earned a spot on Team USA as well.

The following season, 2016, McKay more or less maintained his two-way dominance: he slugged .333/.414/.513 with 19 doubles, a pair of triples, and six homeruns while finishing with a 2.30 ERA across 109.2 innings while averaging 10.5 K/9 and 3.45 BB/9. And, of course, the national recognition continued:

All-ACC First Team (utility player/designated hitter)

All-ACC First Team (starting pitcher)

Louisville Slugger Third Team All-America

Perfect Game Second Team All-America

NCBWA First Team All-America

D1Baseball First Team All-America

Baseball America First Team All-America

ABCA First Team All-America

John Olerud Two-Way Player of the Year

McKay also starred on Team USA during the summer as well, hitting .326/.372/.434 to go along with a 1.35 ERA in 13.1 innings of work.

The Pennsylvania-born lefty raised his production on both sides of the ball during his junior campaign last year. In 64 games with the Cardinals, McKay slugged .341/.457/.659 with 15 doubles, one triple, and a career best – by a long shot – 18 homeruns. On the mound, he continued to twirl gems: 109.0 IP, 146 strikeouts, and just 35 walks en route to tallying a 2.56 ERA and an 11-3 win-loss record.

Tampa Bay grabbed the two-way star with the fourth overall pick last June and, at the time of the signing, agreed to a record deal worth $7,007,500. The club, which has eyes on allowing him to continue his two-way ability, sent him to the New York-Penn League for his debut. McKay batted a disappointing .232/.349/.376 with nine extra-base hits. On the mound, the big lefty posted a 21-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 20.0 innings of work.

Projection: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about the former Louisville Cardinal heading into the draft last season:

“Not your typical two-way player like Michael Lorenzen, who performed admirably with the bat but was always destined to become a pitcher. So let’s break down McKay’s abilities separately. To put things into proper perspective, consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2016, there have been two hitters that have averaged at least an 18% walk rate, a strikeout rate between 10% and 15%, and slug at least .700 (minimum 170 PA): Kris Bryant and Will Craig, both of whom were first round picks. If McKay continues to perform as he has, he would be the third member of the group.

Heading into his junior campaign it looked almost certain that the Louisville first sacker had the ceiling as a poor man’s – albeit serviceable – Eric Hosmer once he transitioned to the professional ranks. I would have likely slapped a third round grade on him as a hitter. But his power’s really blossomed into a reliable, above-average, repeatable skill. At the time of this writing, he’s currently among the nation’s most prolific homerun hitters.

McKay complements his thump with an impeccable eye at the plate: he’s sporting a 21-to-36 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his junior campaign and a 96-to-98 strikeout-to-walk ratio for his entire career.

Thanks to the added pop, McKay now profiles as a potential middle-of-the-lineup thumper, one who is capable of hitting .300/.380/.480 during his eventual peak.

Now as a pitcher, I would have slapped a potential late first round grade on the lefty heading into this season. And he’s done nothing but get better. He’s not overpowering in the traditional sense. But he combines a better-than-average arm with moxie to dominate hitters. His control, like a lot of other top prospects during their junior seasons, has taken a big step forward – going from strong to potential elite.

So how good has he been in 2017? Well, consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2016, here’s a list of Division I pitchers to throw at least 60 innings while averaging 12.0 K/9 and fewer than 2.5 BB/9: Danny Hultzen, Luke Gillingham, Trevor Bauer, and Marcus Stroman. Hultzen was the second overall pick in 2011. Bauer was taken by the Diamondbacks one pick later. Stroman was grabbed with the 22nd overall pick in 2012. And Gillingham was a late, late round pick in 2016.

So, where will McKay eventually end up in the professional ranks?

Personally, I’m not certain. Ignoring any potential injury – or injuries – he’s probably a safer bet to develop into a #2/#3-type starting pitcher as opposed to a middle-of-the-lineup thumper. But the potential as a hitter likely outweighs that of a pitcher. I do think it’s too soon to “pigeonhole” him into either role just yet. Instead, I wouldn’t be surprised to see whichever team – the Minnesota Twins – let him make that determination by his performance on the field. Meaning: let him be a two-way player for the first year or so.”

Ceiling: 3.5- to 4.0-win player (Hitter); 3.0- to 3.5-win player (Pitcher)

Risk: Moderate to High (Hitter); Moderate (Pitcher)

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

Background: Finally – finally – after predicting and naming Williams as a breakout prospect in 2014, 2015, and 2016, Williams broke out MASSIVELY last season. Originally drafted by the Diamondbacks in the second round in 2013 and later flipped to Tampa Bay as part of the Jeremy Hellickson deal, Williams slugged a robust .301/.364/.489 with 21 doubles, three triples, and 14 homeruns. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 45%.

Projection: Let’s take a long, long jump back down to my first book four years ago. Here’s what I wrote about Williams:

“Admittedly, there’s not a whole lot of data to go on, but the initial returns are incredibly impressive, especially considering that he’ll play 2014 as an 18-year-old. Williams’ power could be something to keep an eye on in the coming years.”

So let’s just jump right into the numbers. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, only two 21-year-old hitters posted at least a 140 wRC+ mark in the Southern League (min. 350 PA): Evan Longoria and Joc Pederson.

Now to be fair, Longoria and Pederson both posted a 155 wRC+, whereas Williams finished with a 145 wRC+. But it’s still an exclusive club. With that being said, I’m still quite enamored by Williams as a prospect. He’s big and projectable, showcases above-average power, plays passable defense; and he handles both lefties and righties well. My only concern: his walk rates were atrocious between 2015 and 2016, so I’m a bit skeptical of his 9.0% BB-rate.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2018

Background: The University of Virginia – seemingly – has a direct pipeline to the minor leagues over the past several seasons. The school has had an incredible 24 players drafted since 2014, including 10 players chosen in the first two rounds. But the one player who’s likely going to be the best of the bunch wasn’t taken until the fifth round of the 2015 draft. McCarthy was an incredibly lethal bat during his freshman and sophomore seasons with the Cavaliers, slugging .336/.469/.453 and .301/.417/.449, respectively. But back surgery severely sapped his production during his junior campaign, sending his draft stock plummeting – which was much to the benefit of the Rays.

McCarthy posted a mediocre .277/.362/.337 triple-slash line during his debut in the New York-Penn League. But his production the following season spiked back up to his pre-injury numbers: he batted an aggregate .285/.398/.430 with 21 doubles, three triples, and eight homeruns with 19 stolen bases between his time with Bowling Green and Charlotte. Last season McCarthy squared off against the biggest minor league challenge: Class AA. He came out smelling like roses and his production looked like Tony Gwynn. In a career best 127 games, the 6-foot-3, 225-pound first baseman/left fielder slugged .284/.409/.434 with 31 doubles, eight triples, and seven homeruns. He also swiped 20 bags in 25 total chances. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 49%, the second best mark in the Southern League.

Projection: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about the former collegiate star heading into the 2015 draft:

“Quite frankly, it’s a lost year for the unfortunately named McCarthy (Red Scare!). He underwent the knife, looked like a shell of his former self when he came back, and did some pretty serious damage to his draft stock – so much so, in fact, that he may be inclined to head back to Virginia for his senior campaign. McCarthy’s a poor man’s version of former teammate Mike Papi: an OBP machine with a solid hit tool and below-average power, especially for a corner outfield spot.At his best, McCarthy looks like a solid bench option, depending upon his ability – or inability – to handle left-handers. Typical quad-A/fringy big leaguer.”

Whoops. Clearly I was too heavily invested in his injury and didn’t pay enough attention to his stellar production the two previous years. So let’s update this a bit, shall we? Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, only two 23-year-old hitters owned a 145-155 wRC+ mark with a double-digit walk rate in the Southern League (min. 350 PA): John Jaso and Kyle Kubitza.

There’s a stark difference between their respective big league careers, just like their strikeout rates in Class AA. Jason fanned 10.9% of the time; Kubitza punched out a red flag territory-esque 25.9% of the time. McCarthy, for the record, fanned in 17.0% of his plate appearances, which puts him directly in the middle. Personally, I like McCarthy’s odds to develop – quietly – into a nice little corner outfielder for the Rays.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

9. Nick Ciuffo, C

Background: Often times catching prospects take longer to develop. For every Buster Posey there are a dozen – or more – Devin Mesoracos. Cincinnati’s young backstop, who has been riddled with injuries the past couple of years, hardly looked the part of an early first round selection during his first three seasons in pro ball, posting wRC+ marks of 74, 102, and 102. But Mesoraco broke out during his fourth professional, vaulting him back up the prospect charts. Enter: Nick Ciuffo. Originally drafted by the Rays as the 21st overall selection in 2013, Ciuffo was an abysmal hitter through the end of 2016. His best showing, at least in terms of Weighted Runs Created Plus, was his 2014 showing in the Appalachian League when he batted a lowly .224/.289/.333. But, much to the credit of the front office, Tampa Bay has slowly, methodically pushed the lefty-swinging backstop through the minor leagues. And, lo and behold, Ciuffo quietly turned in his best showing to date in 2017 – at the most important minor league level: Class AA. In a career high 102 games with the Montgomery Biscuits, the 6-foot-1, 205-pound backstop batted a respectable .245/.319/.385 with 29 doubles (a career high), one triple (tying a career high), and seven homeruns (one more than his entire career total). Ciuffo’s overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 2%.

Projection: Welcome to the Top 20, Nick Ciuffo. The young catcher’s bread-and-butter comes on the defensive side of the game. According to Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics, here are the number of runs Ciuffo’s saved on a year-by-year basis starting with 2014: +10, +14, +15, and +7. He may be the most valuable defender in the minor leagues, at any position. So, clearly, anything he provides on the other side of the ball is simply just an added bonus. Ciuffo offers up a solid eye at the plate, decent contact numbers, and the power took a tremendous leap forward in 2017. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2014, only three 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria in the Southern League (min. 350 PA): a wRC+ total between 97 and 107 and a walk rate between 8.5% and 11.5%. Those three players are Tucker Barnhart, Trayce Thompson, and Tony Thomas. And here are their big league career wRC+ totals: 82 (Barnhart), 105 (Thompson), and Thomas never made it up to the big leagues.

Barnhart, like Ciuffo, is a defensive-minded backstop and he totaled 2.0 fWAR last season.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

10. Matt Krook, LHP

Background: The Marlins grabbed the hard-throwing southpaw in the opening round, 34th overall, in the 2013 draft. The two sides couldn’t come to an agreement after a post-draft physical reportedly revealed some serious red flags. So the 6-foot-4, 225-pound lefty packed his bags and headed off to one of the premier powerhouses in college baseball: the University of Oregon. Not a bad Plan B. And Krook got off to a ridiculous start with the Ducks: in 8 starts for Head Coach George Horton, Krook compiled a 1.79 ERA, 60 punch outs against 19 walks in 45.1 innings of work. After that, though, he wouldn’t pop back up for nearly two years as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. When he did finally make it, Krook still missed a ton of bats – 11.40 K/9 – but walked nearly a hitter per inning in 15 games with Oregon. San Francisco, which didn’t own a first round pick two years ago, opted to take the mercurial pitcher in the fourth round. Krook would make two brief appearances in the Arizona Summer League before getting promoted up to short-season action for the rest of the year. In total, he threw 40.2 innings, fanned 41, but managed to walk 35. Last season, Krook made 25 appearances for the San Jose Giants, throwing 91.1 innings while averaging 10.35 strikeouts and 6.50 walks per nine innings. He finished the year with a 5.12 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 4.64 xFIP, and a 2.44 DRA.

Projection: Here’s what I wrote about Krook heading into the 2016 draft:

“Such an interesting case. Krook obviously has the pedigree to go in the opening round – again. But will teams be scared off by his surgically repaired elbow? If not, what about his inability to find the strike zone in 2016? Now to be fair, Krook showed solid-average control during his freshman season, so there’s hope that he can bounce back.

Personally, I like him. Quite a bit.

And I think Krook is primed to go with a team with multiple first round picks. Assuming the control/command bounces back he could potentially develop into a #2/#3-type arm.”

Huge, huge strikeout numbers with matching potential. Consider the following:

Since 2006, only 28 pitchers have averaged 10 or more strikeouts per nine innings in the California League (min. 90 IP). Of those 28, six of them – including Krook – averaged more than 5.0 walks per nine innings.

Here’s where it gets interesting: outside of Krook, obviously, each of the other five arms made it to the big leagues. Those five arms: Andrew Chafin, Franklin Morales, Jose Cisnero, Lance McCullers, and Samuel Deduno.

With respect to Krook, there’s some added optimism: over his first six games, he posted a 22-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 17.2 innings of work; the rest of the season, though, he posted an 83-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 73.2 innings – or an average of 10.1 K/9 and just 4.8 BB/9. It’s not great, but it’s definitely improvement. Again, Krook is very combustible. And he doesn’t have a lengthy track record coming out of high school. But there’s a tremendous amount of potential here, I just don’t know if he can corral his power-oriented arsenal enough to stay in the rotation. At the very least, he’s a potential shutdown reliever.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2020

Author’s Note: All statistics mentioned were gathered from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, ClayDavenport.com, or Baseball Prospectus.