Ladbrokes report a surge in bets over recent days on TMay being replaced as PM this year and make it evens that she won’t survive. There’s 4/1 on offer that a General Election is called this year, or it’s a 9/4 chance the next one happens in 2019.

Jessica Bridge of Ladbrokes said: “Money talks, and punters think the PM could be out of a job sooner rather than later.”

I’m not sure after having bet in October that she wouldn’t survive 2017. She has shown remarkable resilience and there is still no obvious alternative.

In many ways it is better for her party that she sticks with it and is the PM who takes the UK out of the EU. What happens after March 29th 2019 is a different matter but my guess is that there will always be a reason why the time is not ripe to oust the leader.

Today’s odds from Ladbrokes:

Year Theresa May is replaced as PM

2018 Evens

2019 9/4

2020 or later 11/4 Vote of No Confidence called in 2018

No 8/11

Yes Evens Year of Next General Election

2018 4/1

2019 9/4

2020 8/1

2021 10/1

2022 or Later 7/4

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB



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