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Put in context, these new expansions are equivalent to emissions from all vehicles, buildings and electricity emissions in Ontario combined.

This means additional emission cuts at this scale will be needed to get us back on track to meet the framework’s overall commitments. Recent research indicates that if one LNG project is built and if oilsands emissions reach the 100-Mt cap, the rest of the economy has to decrease its emissions by at least 55 per cent for Canada to reach its 2030 target.

It is possible to approve fossil fuel expansions and for the pan-Canadian climate framework to meet its goals. But every single project approved makes it harder.

The way forward is for the prime minister to heed the advice of many experts and require a “climate test.” This would require project proponents to show how new emissions will fit with Canada’s commitments.

This would involve a needs test to determine the global market for petroleum exports in a world that successfully limits warming to well below two degrees.

Approval of more fossil fuel projects should also fit with Canada’s commitments to reduce carbon emissions by 80 per cent by 2050. This means emissions from a new project will need to drop by close to five per cent per year until they reach near-zero in 2050, a challenge for each new multi-decade production approved.

Requiring a climate test would be a reasonable and transparent requirement for new fossil fuel projects. It would show the federal government is serious about meeting targets Canada has committed to. Charges of hypocrisy will be easily fended off, and it will be clear whether the prime minister has struck the “balance” he likes to speak of so fondly.

Tim Gray is executive director of Environmental Defence, which has climate change programming at the federal level and in Ontario and Alberta