While there are no matchups between ranked teams this week, there were a plethora of upsets the last time that was the case. If you are looking for a specific game, they are listed in order of starting time.

Pittsburgh at Penn State

Betting Line: Penn State -17.5

Over/Under: 53.5

Analysis:

After a loss to Virginia in their opener, Pittsburgh rebounded with a 20-10 win over Ohio last week. Quarterback Kenny Pickett is no superstar, but he did well enough to get the job done last week. If he can keep that play up, Pittsburgh should be fine. What Pittsburgh needs to be concerned about on offense is Penn State’s extremely talented front seven. Penn State has a great defensive line led by Yetur Gross-Matos and Robert Windsor as well as a very good linebacking corps led by Micah Parsons. Pittsburgh does pass the ball more than they did last season, but they still will want to establish the run game. The offensive line will need to hold up. Tackle Nolan Ulizio will likely be matched up often with Gross-Matos and he will need a good game. On defense, the Panthers need to do well defending the pass. Penn State has struggled to get consistent play at running back and Pittsburgh can put them in a tough spot if they can hamper Penn State’s passing attack. Cornerbacks Jason Pinnock and Dane Jackson will be looked upon to do just that.

Penn State started off slowly last week as they trailed Buffalo 10-7 at halftime. The Nittany Lions were able to rally though as they brought home a 45-13 win. Quarterback Sean Clifford had a good day as he completed 16/22 passes for 279 yards and four touchdowns. Jahan Dotson had 109 receiving yards and two touchdowns while tight end Pat Freiermuth had two touchdowns of his own. Where Penn State struggled offensively was running the ball. Clifford led the team with 58 rushing yards against Buffalo but after that, no running back ran for more than 30 yards or had a single run of more than 10 yards. While they might be able to use the passing game almost exclusively against lower quality teams and still win, that will not be the case this week. For the running game to succeed, running backs Journey Brown and Ricky Slade need to do well and the offensive line also needs to win the battle in the trenches. Defensively, I think Penn State needs their front seven to continue the good play. While most people could assume Yetur Gross-Matos would be a one man wrecking crew at defensive end, defensive tackles Fred Hansard and Robert Windsor have stepped up too. Micah Parsons, Jan Johnson, and Cam Brown have been a very good trio at linebacker as well. I think Penn State should try to make Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett beat their defense, and not let Pittsburgh’s run game get going. Pickett is not a bad quarterback, but he has never really had to put the team on his back and I do not think he will be able to against Penn State.

It should also be brought up that this has been a hotly contested rivalry the last few times they have played. There is no love lost between these teams and I fully expect them both to play up for this game.

Prediction:

Pittsburgh keeps it interesting for a bit but Penn State ultimately wins 35-17.

Stanford at UCF

Betting Line: UCF -9

Over/Under: 59.5

Analysis:

Stanford got off to a good start against USC last week as they led 17-3 in the first half, but then collapsed and lost 45-20. The Cardinal struggled defending the pass as USC quarterback Kedon Slovis absolutely diced up their defense. Slovis completed 85% of his passes and threw for 11 yards per attempt against Stanford. The Cardinal have a good shutdown cornerback in Paulson Adebo, but the rest of the secondary needs to pick it up this game. Gabriel Davis looks to be UCF’s go to guy so slowing him down will be a good start. Stanford has done pretty well when it comes to stopping the run, and it will help them out a lot if they continue their good play. Offensively, it looks like KJ Costello will return at quarterback after missing the game against USC with a concussion. Costello will be able to challenge opposing defenses much more than Davis Mills could against USC. The offensive line took a huge hit this week when it was revealed that offensive tackle Walker Little, who was projected to be a top 10 overall draft pick, will be out for the rest of the season. The offensive line will need to step up without Little. UCF had five sacks and 16 tackles for loss against FAU last week. While Stanford will be a big step up, it is clear UCF’s defensive front can be dangerous. Stanford must stay strong up front.

UCF took care of business last week as they beat FAU 48-14. The Knights did well at shutting down FAU’s rushing attack as the held the Owls to less than three yards per carry. UCF also created quite a few big plays as they had five sacks and 16 tackles for loss on the day. That being said, Stanford will have a very strong offensive line that will be tougher to crack than UCF’s first two opponents. If UCF can come out well in that battle, they will be in a good spot. On offense, UCF has yet to name a starting quarterback for the game. I think it will be Dillon Gabriel, but Brandon Wimbush or Darriel Mack could get the nod. Regardless, UCF will need to establish the run game as Stanford has shut down the run game of both teams they have played. Greg McCrae, Bentavious Thompson, and Adrian Killins are all solid threats on the ground that could collectively test Stanford. If UCF can establish the run game, their offense should be in a good place.

Prediction:

Stanford has everything come together on offense and pulls the upset 30-28.

Arizona State at Michigan State

Betting Line: Michigan State -14.5

Over/Under: 42

Analysis:

Arizona State secured the win last week over Sacramento State, but it was a bit ugly as the Sun Devils beat an FCS foe just 19-7 and struggled to fully separate themselves. What was a bit puzzling for Arizona State was that running back Eno Benjamin was held to 69 yards on 24 carries. Benjamin ran for over 1,600 yards last season and has been an absolute star for Arizona State. For Arizona State to succeed on offense, Benjamin can not get slowed down. The offensive line also has to hold up as Michigan State’s defensive line is one of the best in the country. If that cannot happen, it will be very hard for Arizona State to succeed offensively. Jayden Daniels did well at quarterback in his first two games, but will be going into the belly of the beast at Michigan State which he has not yet done. The Sun Devils will hope to not lean on Daniels as much, but he can not let the moment get too big for him. On defense, the Sun Devils can not take Michigan State too lightly. Brian Lewerke has picked it up through at air, and Arizona State’s secondary can not overlook that. Darrell Stewart Jr. had 185 receiving yards for Michigan State in their last game. Cornerbacks Kobe Williams and Jack Jones have to be ready.

Michigan State had a very strong showing against Western Michigan in their game last week. To start things off, their offense looked as strong as it has been in recent memory. Brian Lewerke had a good day at quarterback as he threw for 314 yards while completing 72% of his passes. Lewerke connected often with Darrell Stewart Jr. who had 10 catches for 185 yards on the day. Elijah Collins ran for 192 yards as well. If they can just have one aspect of their offense flourish like it did last week, the Spartans will be in a good spot. Lewerke also needs to have a good day under center. On defense, the front seven will need to adopt a more attacking strategy. While Kenny Willekes is an absolute beast at defensive end, Raequan Williams and Mike and Jacub Panasiuk (the fact that they speak Polish to each other to call signals will be brought up by the announcers approximately 700 times) are also strong players up front. Joe Bachie and Tyriq Thompson are also very good players at linebacker. This front seven will be called upon to stifle Arizona State running back Eno Benjamin. Benjamin was one of the top rushers in the country last season and will take a lot of work to slow down. The front seven also will look to put pressure on Arizona State’s true freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels. While Daniels did well the first two games, I think it will be tough for a true freshman to handle the pressure brought by players of Michigan State’s caliber.

Prediction:

Michigan State’s defense is just too much for Arizona State as the Spartans come out on top 27-10.

Iowa at Iowa State

Betting Line: Iowa State +1

Over/Under: 42.5

Analysis:

Iowa had a good day with their 30-0 win over Rutgers last week. The Hawkeyes held Rutgers to just 125 total yards and 2.5 yards per play. Rutgers had just one play go over 20 yards. AJ Epenesa did what he does best at defensive end, putting up a sack and four quarterback hurries. Djimon Colbert and Michael Ojemudia both picked off passes. The Hawkeyes will need to be solid in pass coverage as Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy is a very strong talent. I also suspect Iowa could use a spy on Purdy. While he did not show them off in their last game, Purdy can make plays with his legs. If Iowa can slow down Purdy, their defense should be in a good spot. On offense, Nate Stanley has been consistently good for the last three years. While he is not the flashiest, Stanley can get the job done. Iowa has still not quite found their workhorse at running back, but they have a couple of consistent guys. Mekhi Sargent and Toren Young both are getting some carries and have done solid. Ihmir Smith-Marsette did very well in the game against Rutgers as he had 113 receiving yards. Some bad news for Iowa’s offense is that offensive tackle Alaric Jackson is out for the time being. Jackson is an anchor on the offensive line and should end up being a first round pick this coming spring. If their offensive line still comes out on top in the battle of the trenches, I think Iowa will be able to do well offensively.

Iowa State is coming off of a bye week, but they looked rough in their first outing. The Cyclones needed triple overtime to beat FCS for UNI. While UNI is one of the best programs in the FCS, it is still a bit concerning. Brock Purdy did well at quarterback but never showed off his deep ball in the game. Deshaunte Jones stepped up at receiver as he hauled in 14 catches for 126 yards. What concerns me about Iowa State’s offense in this game is how they will hold off Iowa’s star defensive end AJ Epenesa. Tackles Bryce Meeker and Julian Good-Jones will need to do well. It would also be nice for the Cyclones to establish the run game. Johnnie Lang and Sheldon Croney look like the two lead backs, but neither of them did too well against UNI. On defense, the Cyclones will be going against a very good Iowa offensive line. JaQuan Bailey and Ray Lima will need to step up in this game. Linebacker Mike Rose will be someone else to watch as he had 3.5 tackles for loss against UNI. This battle in the trenches will definitely be something to watch.

This game is a big time rivalry for both teams that Iowa has won four seasons in a row. College GameDay is also in town for this game, which is their first time in Ames. All of this points to something crazy going down.

Prediction:

Everything I have said has my mind to believe Iowa wins it close, but I am banking on some Ames magic happening and Iowa State winning 20-17.

Florida at Kentucky

Betting Line: Kentucky +9

Over/Under: 47.5

Analysis:

After winning an ugly Week 0 matchup with Miami, Florida had a bye week to sort things out. The Gators looked to have worked out some of the issues in their 45-0 win over FCS foe UT-Martin last week. After struggling against Miami, Feleipe Franks had a great game at quarterback as he completed 25/27 passes for 270 yards. Where some question marks come up are in the run game as Florida had just one player rush for over 50 yards last week, and that was Lamical Perone who ran for 51 yards. Florida was hit with some tough news this week when they found out Kadarius Toney would be out for the foreseeable future. Toney is a very good gadget player for the Gators who is a constant home run threat. What Florida needs this game is for Franks to have a good day. Franks has been a bit inconsistent, and can not afford to have a bad game. Defensively, Florida has had at least 10 tackles for loss in each of their first two games. The leader of the pack right now is Jabari Zuniga who has 4.5 tackles for loss through two games. The Gators look to generate big plays defensively, and I think they should continue to do that. While I think they should focus on stopping the run, their secondary will see a drop off in ability after cornerback CJ Henderson went down with an injury. Henderson was likely Florida’s best defensive player and will not play against Kentucky. Fellow cornerback Marco Wilson needs to step up. Kentucky will be trotting out a quarterback who has not started for them yet and will be questionable through the air. If Wilson can lock up Kentucky recurved Lynn Bowden Jr., then the front seven can just worry about swarming a new quarterback and stifling the run game.

Kentucky brought home the win last week over Eastern Michigan by a score of 38-17. The Wildcats got a nice win, but were hit with some tough news when they found out quarterback Terry Wilson will be out for the rest of the season with a torn patellar tendon. This leaves Troy transfer Sawyer Smith to take the reigns. Smith was solid for Troy but will be playing at a whole different level against Florida’s defense. To ease Smith into things, Kavoisey Smoke (I promise this is a real person’s name) and AJ Rose will need to step it up at running back. The offensive line also needs to do well. If Smith can just play the role of a game manager, Kentucky could be fine on offense. Defensively, I think Kentucky needs to try and dare Florida quarterback Feleipe Franks to beat them on his own. Kentucky can do that by working to slow down Florida on the ground and be stout in pass coverage. Linebacker Kash Daniel will play a huge role in this game as he is the leader of Kentucky’s defense and is often used in coverage.

Prediction:

Kentucky keeps it interesting for their home crowd but can not quite finish the job as Florida wins 23-17.

Florida State at Virginia

Betting Line: Virginia -7

Over/Under: 56.5

Analysis:

Florida State was given quite a scare last week against ULM. The Seminoles got a bit lucky and won the game 45-44 after ULM’s kicker missed an extra point in overtime. Having to gut out a win in overtime over a team that went 6-6 in the Sun Belt last season is not necessarily ideal for Florida State. On offense, Florida State put up points, but their offensive line was still faulty at best. Virginia likes to blitz with their linebackers a lot and they will surely not change that against Florida State. The Seminoles have to figure something out up front on offense and be able to give James Blackman time to throw or not force Cam Akers to have to constantly fight through tackles. Akers did have a good day last week as he ran for 193 yards. He will need to have another big game in order for Florida State to come out victorious here. Virginia also sports a solid secondary and an outstanding cornerback in Bryce Hall. If Florida State can challenge this secondary and if Blackman can make those throws, it will be huge. On defense, the Seminoles probably need to spy Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins. Perkins is developing his arm talent and can kill teams with his legs. Hamsah Nasirildeen will likely be the guy to spy Perkins and he needs to do well at it. Jaiden Lars-Woodbey could also do it, and he needs to play well regardless. Virginia also does not have a good offensive line themselves and Florida State has the talent to exploit that.

Virginia had a good showing last week with a 52-17 win over FCS foe William & Mary last week. Quarterback Bryce Perkins has seen better days, but still had good moments. What Virginia should be concerned about on offense is finding other sources of yardage. Mike Hollins looked good in spots at running back last week and could be that guy at that spot. While I believe he is a very good quarterback, I think that Perkins will struggle if Virginia needs him to do everything on offense and they need to find someone to take some of the weight off of him. Defensively, Virginia has a strong group of linebackers that I think can make life miserable for Florida State’s backfield. Zane Zandier, Jordan Mack, and Charles Snowden are all playmakers at linebacker and will surely be used on blitzes to attack Florida State’s weak offensive line. If Virginia successfully executes that plan, they will knock Florida State’s offense all out of sorts.

Prediction:

Florida State just gets out schemed (and might not be hydrated enough according to head coach Willie Taggart) and Virginia wins 34-21.

TCU at Purdue

Betting Line: Purdue +2

Over/Under: 53

Analysis:

TCU won their season opener over Arkansas Pine Bluff 39-7 and has since had a bye week. One of the biggest storylines surrounding TCU was who they would go with at quarterback and it looks as though a clear answer is not there yet. Head coach Gary Patterson said he still plans to rotate between Kansas State transfer Alex Delton and true freshman Max Duggan. Duggan has more impressive numbers through the air but Delton was more effective on the ground. Whoever does play quarterback will need to be solid on the road. Jalen Reagor is a great receiver for the Horned Frogs and will have to play well. TreVontae Hights had a solid Week 1 and him playing well in this game too will be a tremendous help for TCU. Establishing the run game with Sewo Olonilua and Darius Anderson will also be nice. On defense, the Horned Frogs should be more focused on defending the pass. Purdue has struggled heavily to find a go to running back, but their quarterback Elijah Sindelar has dine quite well and Rondale Moore is still a stud at receiver. Jeff Gladney will be tasked with covering Moore and I think that matchup will be one of the most interesting things to watch on Saturday. If Gladney wins that battle, TCU should win this game.

Purdue evened up their record last week with a 42-24 win over Vanderbilt. The Boilermakers were led by 509 passing yards from Elijah Sindelar and 224 receiving yards from Rondale Moore. What will hurt Purdue is that Sindelar is questionable for this game due to a concussion. If Sindelar can play, Purdue will be in a much better spot. Regardless of who plays quarterback, the Boilermakers need to find a threat on the ground. Against Vanderbilt, Purdue had just 31 rushing yards as a team. They need to balance out their offense a bit more. Good offensive line play can help that too. The obvious key on offense is receiver Rondale Moore. If Moore has a big game, Purdue will be a leg up on TCU. On defense, Purdue needs to be able to cover Jalen Reagor effectively. Kenneth Major will likely be tasked with covering Reagor and will need to do well. The Boilermakers should also be very focused on rattling TCU’s quarterback whoever it is. Linebacker Markus Bailey being out is not ideal as he was the leader of the defense last season and this season. Purdue needs to fill that role with someone who is at least competent.

Prediction:

Gary Patterson cooks up a master plan for TCU who wins 26-21.

To be notified when I post, follow my Instagram @impassionedsportsnerd. Last week, I was 4-3 against the spread and am 11-5 on the season.

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