During the 35-day shutdown earlier this year, the Census Bureau dipped into carryover funds to continue operating. Another long shutdown could throw the agency into chaos in the final days before the tally begins. | Getty education Budget gridlock imperils 2020 census

The 2020 census is already expected to be the most expensive and complicated head count in U.S. history — and that’s assuming Congress fends off another budget blowup just months before launch of the massive national tally.

The Census Bureau has no room to veer off-schedule now or delay decision-making as it prepares for a more than $15 billion enumeration, advocates say. But budget uncertainty abounds ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline for funding every facet of the federal government, as congressional leaders and the White House wrestle with a deal to stave off billions of dollars in spending cuts, another government shutdown and a default on the nation’s debt.


That leaves the Census Bureau questioning the certainty of fiscal 2020 funding less than nine months before commencement of the count, which will shape the distribution of federal resources for the next decade.

“Uncertainty increases cost and inefficiencies. And given the short time frame, that’s a real problem for the quality of the census,” said Arloc Sherman, a senior fellow with the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. “They have a big operation that can’t wait. Everything has been timed out to the day for years now.”

The latest budget gridlock could hinder preparation, rack up extra costs and jeopardize the quality of the 2020 census. Already, the groundwork for the count has taken a hit as a result of federal funding troubles. The bureau delayed and canceled key testing in recent years as Congress lurched from one fiscal crisis to the next.

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During the 35-day shutdown earlier this year, the Census Bureau dipped into carryover funds to continue operating. Another long shutdown could throw the agency into chaos in the final days before the tally begins.

Further complicating the count, President Donald Trump’s pursuit of a citizenship question could still drive up costs, even though he called off the effort. The query has already sown fear and confusion among undocumented immigrants and could require more federal resources next year to rectify non-responses, said Mary Jo Hoeksema, co-director of a coalition of organizations called The Census Project, which advocates for an “inclusive and accurate” census.

While the Census Bureau did not respond to repeated requests for comment, Director Steven Dillingham told House appropriators this spring that his agency must have fiscal 2020 funding certainty “to remain on schedule.”

The president's fiscal 2020 budget proposal seeks to increase funding for the questionnaire by $5.3 billion. Even though Dillingham said he was “highly confident” that would be enough, House Democrats panned Trump’s request as “wholly inadequate” and proceeded with passing a spending package, H.R. 3055 (116), last month that included a $7.5 billion hike.

Advocates like Hoeksema endorse the House’s proposed increase, which they say the bureau should receive all at once before the Oct. 1 start of the fiscal year.

“The Bureau is one of those agencies that can’t afford to wait,” Hoeksema said. “They’re not in a position to endure a continuing resolution or a shutdown in the same way that other agencies might.”

But without a broader budget deal, the funding hikes House spending leaders have chosen are expected to change, if not totally fall by the wayside, with enactment of a stopgap spending measure that drags out current levels.

While Senate Republicans do not plan to mark up any of their fiscal 2020 spending bills without a budget deal, Appropriations Chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) has vowed to adequately fund the 2020 census.

“We’ve always met the goal of properly funding the census, and this will be no exception,” he told POLITICO in an interview.

Even if Congress resorts to another continuing resolution, it could fall back on a so-called “anomaly” to boost fiscal 2020 funding for the census, noted Timothy Maney, who served two decades ago as chief investigator for the House panel overseeing the census and is now an executive director at the Chamber of Commerce.

Still, budget worries can impede an agency’s ability to sign long-term contracts, make purchases and hire personnel. And organizations with The Census Project are warning lawmakers this summer that the upcoming count “will be the largest, most difficult enumeration in our nation’s history.”

For the first time, people will be able to respond to the census online, which presents new cybersecurity and broadband access issues. The bureau will also need to hire enough people to collect information from households that don’t initially respond or prefer using a paper questionnaire or telephone feedback, The Census Project noted.

U.S. households are also “becoming more complex,” the group warned, and a greater share of residents are “falling into ‘harder to reach’ categories.”