Now that the after-glow that comes from an eight-game winning streak has worn off, having lost five of their last six games, the Toronto Maple Leafs have left their fans questioning their faith in coach Randy Carlyle once again. The Leafs have a very difficult January coming up, when they’ll visit Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose, and St. Louis on the same road trip. Nine out of thirteen games next month are on the road, making up for the fact that they spent the vast majority of the first half of the season at home.

It’s clear that the Leafs needed these December points, in games against weak teams like Carolina and Philadelphia. However, it looks like the Leafs’ unsustainable style of play is catching up to them.

The breakout is one of the most fundamental parts of a team’s game, even in house league. It’s impossible to score without getting out of your own zone safely, therefore, it would stand to reason that an NHL team, like the Leafs, would be able to develop a competent system for that, but no! These are the Toronto Maple Leafs, of infamous incompetence. Not only do the Leafs have a broken strategy, but they’ve kept that same broken strategy for a while, seemingly unable to recognize that their system needs changing.

You see (for those who haven’t #playedthegame), in a typical breakout, the defenceman will pass to a winger near his own blueline, who may either pass the puck off to a centreman, or carry it into the offensive zone. This is relatively standard at most levels, because it tends to work. Randy Carlyle’s system, however, has the first winger or defenceman making a long pass to another winger who is much higher up, often near the red line or offensive blueline. This long pass through the neutral zone is often incredibly risky, and is punished frequently, as seen in this clip:

Nazem Kadri tries to pass across to James van Riemsdyk on the other wing, instead of to (the potentially more open) Mike Santorelli in the middle. The pass is very easily picked off by the Flyers defenceman, which leads to a scoring chance for Philadelphia. This sort of cross-ice pass is repeatedly intercepted, since it’s made in a dangerous area, and is quite a difficult pass to make perfectly.

For argument’s sake, let’s say the Leafs do break out of their zone with possession. What then? Well, clearly the best thing to do is to dump the puck in and go chase it! Right? Alas, not. One of the reasons the Leafs are in the NHL’s top ten in giveaways (despite being bottom five in possession metrics) is their dump-and-chase strategy. Hockey bloggers have advocated ad nauseam the benefits of carrying the puck into the zone rather than dumping it. Throwing it at the end boards, more often than not, means giving the other team possession, due to the obvious fact that their defencemen tend to be closer to the goal line than the attacking forward, as seen in the following clip, where a potential Leafs rush turns into a scoring chance for their opponent:

It does work sometimes, but the fact that the dump-and-chase is part of Randy Carlyle’s game is one of the most significant pieces of evidence that his coaching style is archaic in today’s possession-based NHL. In extreme cases, the dump-and-chase can even cause a risk of injury, when players make dangerous hits while in a footrace for the puck (the exact same situation the NHL tried to eliminate by adopting hybrid icing). Here, Peter Holland isn’t hurt, but it’s easy to see how hits at top speed near the end boards can end badly:

This ineffective system is part of the reason fans are always quick to criticize players like Jake Gardiner. These long plays often lead to bad giveaways, where the player is directly at fault, but the mistake could’ve been avoided in a safer system. That’s not to say that players like Gardiner are excused for some monumental lapses in judgement this season, but it’s hard not to argue that Carlyle’s system has been a contributing factor.

Looking at the Leafs as a whole, it’s unfair to say that Randy Carlyle and his coaching staff alone have brought about the team’s woes. The breakout and dump-and-chase don’t help much in the way of generating scoring chances, and the Leafs’ swarm strategy in their defensive zone (where just one defender covers the point or slot when the puck is in the corner) is probably part of the reason why they’re out-shot almost every night. Despite this, however, it’s ultimately the players who influence the game most, and the fact that a great deal of the roster just hasn’t been up to par should not be dismissed.

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