This article is more than 2 years old

This article is more than 2 years old

The government is to release a leaked Brexit analysis that shows the UK economy would be significantly worse off in every modelled scenario after it decided not to oppose a Labour motion calling for the documents to be issued.

The decision came as a second leak from the analysis emerged showing that tightening up Britain’s immigration system after Brexit would cause more economic damage than could be balanced out by any trade gains.



The paper suggested the negative impact of a strict migration regime, in which free movement was replaced with a policy similar to that for non-EU migrants, would dwarf the 0.2% boost to economic growth from a US trade deal.

And the study suggested such growth would even be cancelled out under a more relaxed immigration regime, according to the papers seen by BuzzFeed.

The initial report on the leak revealed that it predicts the UK will end up economically worse off under three possible Brexit scenarios: a comprehensive free trade deal, single market access and no deal at all.

Meanwhile a poll by the Best for Britain campaign group and YouGov showed shifting attitudes, with the public now expressing a preference for free trade with the EU over immigration controls.

The shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, said the move to release the original analysis in full was “a victory for transparency and accountability” after the motion calling for the documents to be provided to MPs and the Brexit select committee was passed unanimously.

Asked by Starmer about when the papers would be released, the Speaker, John Bercow, ruled it should happen “as a matter of urgency”, as decreed in the motion.



After the debate, Starmer said Labour expected ministers to hand over the papers by the end of the week, though the exact timetable has yet to be determined.



Speaking in the debate, the junior Brexit minister Robin Walker said some elements would be redacted if there was a possibility they could affect negotiations with the EU, and the studies would only be available to MPs in a confidential reading room.

“A key part of this is for the government to be able to conduct internal thinking when it comes to preparing policy,” Walker said.

The government has come under pressure to release the documents immediately and to the public, with the cross-party Treasury committee of MPs writing to David Davis, the Brexit secretary, asking for this to happen.

“The document can hardly undermine the government’s negotiating position if it does not consider the government’s desired outcome,” the committee’s chair, Nicky Morgan, wrote.

The climbdown came as Downing Street said Phillip Lee, a junior justice minister, had been reprimanded for tweeting that if such studies showed the economy would be harmed then a change in policy should follow.



No such action has been taken against the Brexit minister Steve Baker, who said economic forecasts by government officials were “always wrong”.

Ministers have dismissed the leaked analysis as interim and incomplete because it does not include the option of a bespoke deal with the EU, which is being sought by the government but about which details have yet to be explained.

A Downing Street source said: “Phillip Lee will recognise that the analysis was initial and probably not worth commenting on. He has been spoken to by the chief whip and reminded that it is best to air his view in private.”

Asked whether the lack of action against Baker meant the minister’s view was official government policy, the source said: “I will stick with what Steve Baker said.”