President Obama and his advisers remain cautiously optimistic despite setbacks. For Obama, glass is half full

His party just suffered staggering losses, his no-drama West Wing is besieged and a few outlier Democrats are even demanding he surrender to fate, assume the fetal position and embrace a one-term presidency.

But when President Barack Obama meets with the next House Speaker, John Boehner of Ohio and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky in the White House next week, he’ll walk in as the most popular politician in the room — which still counts for something.


And that is one reason why, nearly a month after the wipeout in the midterms, Democrats both inside and outside the White House detect a few rays of hope knifing through the gloom. They see the makings a serious potential rebound for Obama — if he settles on steady message, the economy finally cooperates and Sarah Palin takes the presidential plunge.

To be sure, Obama’s approval numbers are squishy, especially in must-win states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Yet, he is registering a baseline national approval rating of 42 percent to 48 percent over the past two weeks, better than Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton at comparable points in their presidencies — a reservoir of goodwill he could build upon.

“His standing with the American people ain't all that bad,” said former Bill Clinton adviser Paul Begala. “ Bush was in the 20s with a stronger economy. If Obama can generate some jobs, my party will be fine.”

Veteran Democratic consultant Dan Gerstein, who has urged the White House to focus on rebuilding bridges with disaffected independents and right-tilting Democrats, said the playing field for Obama is actually pretty good, all things considered.

“It’s easy to argue that Obama’s reelection glass is half full,” Gerstein said. “His approval numbers are better than Reagan’s at the same time, his likability numbers are still good, and the matchups, in general, are looking bad for Republicans at a time when he’s reeling. He’s got plenty of time to recover.”

But Gerstein cautions: “On the glass-half-empty side, I see no evidence from Obama himself or the people around him that there is a major growth curve in the offing … that he’ll learn from his mistakes.”

Indeed, Obama seems to have settled into an uneasy holding pattern since his party's electoral setback, focusing on foreign affairs and blaming part of the loss on salesmanship and not policy in a series of low-energy interviews, while his staff frets about an internal reorganization Obama is quietly hatching with interim chief of staff Pete Rouse.

Republicans, by contrast, are in a brassy mood, and Boehner’s own approval rating, which used to be in the 20s shot up to 34 percent a few days after the Nov. 2 election, according to a recent Gallup Poll. At the same time, Obama’s polling dipped — and nearly half of Americans say they’d vote for someone else in 2012, according to a Nov. 24 Marist survey.

Still, Obama’s advisers are cautiously optimistic he’ll be able to exploit new political opportunities not present during the president’s action-packed first two years — and expose GOP vulnerabilities masked when Republicans enjoyed the impunity of occupying a powerless minority.

“We’re not underestimating the challenge, but it could be worse,” said one Obama confidant, speaking on condition of anonymity. “For two years, it was us against the perfect. Now it’s two years of us against them ... Once again, the voters will have a clear choice.”

House and Senate Republican leaders, who since for almost two years were able to attack Obama with abandon, without any governing responsibilities of their own, now have real power and accountability in the eyes of a deeply skeptical American public, Obama’s aides say.

As proof, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs pointed to recent comments Boehner made suggesting the GOP was open to a compromise on raising the debt limit, an issue many tea party conservatives view as non-negotiable.

“I would point you to what I think the incoming House speaker said last week,” Gibbs told reporters last Tuesday. “It’s an issue that we’re going to have to deal with and we’re going to have to deal with — I think his words were — ‘as adults.’”

The White House has also taken note of what it sees as a serious misstep by the typically cautious McConnell, who told a conservative crowd "our top political priority over the next two years should be to deny Obama a second term in office" shortly after the midterms.

Their tack — positioning Obama as Washington’s premier grown-up — would provide Obama with a double boost. In the short term, it would give him increased leverage against Boehner and McConnell in battles over extension of Bush-era tax cuts, raising the debt ceiling and the stalled START treaty. In the long term, it would contrast his steady leadership style against more erratic Republicans.

But Rob Collins, president of the American Action Network, a GOP-friendly group set up to support conservatives, said it won’t work — because independents willing to give Obama a chance in 2008 have left him for good over the stimulus, health care reform and jobs.

“Barack Obama’s map is starting to look a lot like John Kerry’s,” said Collins, former chief of staff to House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.). “Part of this winning coalition was made up of new voters, higher turnout among African-Americans and independents.

“Looking at where these groups poll now, I don't see that coalition performing at the level it did in 2008. Iowa is a bright spot. But Florida, Wisconsin, Indiana, Virginia, New Mexico — these are scary places for him now.” (See: Republicans tear up Obama's map)

For their part, Democrats are hoping that tea party Republicans — an obstreperous and powerful minority that seems to dictating the party's post-election course — will pick early fights with Boehner if the new speaker suggests they deals. Even though Boehner has downplayed the differences, it raises the specter of another Gingrich-esque government shutdown over tax cuts, the debt limit or spending, a prospect that delights many Democrats.

And there’s always the possibility House Republicans, led by Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), could repeat 1990s sins of overreach by pushing ahead with scattershot investigations voters will perceive as politically motivated.

But the biggest possible silver lining for Obama is, “S-A-R-A-H P-A-L-I-N,” according to one Democratic operative who lovingly sounded out each letter of the Alaska former governor’s name.

“There is no doubt that the GOP today is dominated by a half-term resignee who helped her party blow an historic chance to retake the Senate,” Begala said. “[T]he party of Palin is so far to the right it makes Newt look like Che Guevara. If President Obama can move the needle on jobs — a big if, I grant you — I think Mrs. Palin's powerful pull to the fringe can allow Obama to reclaim the center and win reelection.”

Election analyst Charlie Cook, speaking on MSNBC last week, pronounced Obama’s 2012 prospects “scary” — but added, “I think every night, the president’s got to pray for the economy to come back … and for Republicans to nominate Sarah Palin.”

Palin, ever unpredictable and unbeholden to the GOP establishment and gravitating toward a 2012 run, is — for the moment — Obama’s ideal foil. Unlike McConnell, Boehner, Rep. Joe Barton (R-Texas) or RNC Chairman Michael Steele — previous targets of Team Obama — Palin provides Obama’s campaign-focused team with a high-profile opponent whose negatives among independent voters rival his own.

The tricky part is convincing voters she’s the de facto head of the GOP without picking a direct fight with one of the more charismatic counterpunchers in American politics.

Earlier this month, as part of an effort to promote her new book and reality TV show, Palin told ABC's Barbara Walters she could beat Obama, adding, "I'm looking at the lay of the land now."

Last week, Obama — reluctant to engage — told Walters, “I don't think about Sarah Palin."

Just as important, however, is Obama’s relationship with an even more powerful woman in American politics — outgoing Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). They’ll never admit it in public, but White House officials are keenly aware of the fact that the loss of the House unlimbered Obama from Democrats there led by Pelosi who have prodded the president leftward and complained, more or less openly, about his failure to stand up for them.

Even Rob Collins, no Obama defender, sees political advantage for Obama in distancing himself from Pelosi and company.

“Walk away from the Dems,” is his advice to Obama. “Republicans are planning to hand his '08 legislative record around his neck, so compromising to get some other bipartisan accomplishments makes more and more sense” than sticking with House liberals.

So far, Obama seems to be toeing in that direction, signaling willingness to compromise on a temporary extension of tax cuts.

"I believe that if we stop talking at one another, and start talking with one another, we can get a lot done," he said in his Thanksgiving message to the nation.