Surge in number of doctors and nurses from other EU states leaving renews fears that Brexit could exacerbate staffing crisis

A record number of EU nationals left the NHS last year, renewing fears that Brexit could exacerbate a staffing crisis.

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The figures, compiled by NHS Digital, prompted medical leaders to call for more reassurances to European workers about their future in the UK. A total of 17,197 EU staff, including nurses and doctors, left their posts in 2016, compared with 13,321 in 2015 and 11,222 for 11 months in 2014.

Even though EU staff numbers rose across the period analysed, experts fear the number of people leaving is the more significant trend.

As Britain embarks on fraught Brexit negotiations, the Royal College of Physicians (RCP) and the British Medical Association (BMA) blamed the increase in departures on the prime minister’s lack of assurances about the position of EU nationals resident in the UK. Theresa May has said such a pledge would weaken her ability to negotiate a good deal for Britain as it prepares to leave the trade bloc.

Prof Jane Dacre, the RCP president, said: “These figures confirm our fears that EU doctors are feeling unsettled and, at worst, leaving or planning to leave the UK. We need the government to provide reassurance that we will be able to keep our European colleagues, in the NHS and research, as we will not be able to replace them with homegrown doctors for many years to come.”

The BMA’s council chair, Dr Mark Porter, said: “Following the EU referendum, thousands of EEA [European Economic Area] nationals working in the NHS and wider health and social care system have been left feeling uncertain as to whether they and their families will have the right to live and work here.

“Worryingly, one in four EEA doctors working in the UK have told the BMA that they are considering leaving following the referendum, with many feeling substantially less appreciated by the government. These are people who have dedicated years of service to healthcare, staffing our hospitals, GP surgeries and leading medical research.”

Analysis by the Guardian shows 2,348 doctors from the 27 other EU states left NHS England between July and September 2016 compared with 1,281 in the same period in 2015. That is a rise of 83% year on year. The figures mirror concerns raised about the growing numbers of nurses leaving the health service and the falling number EU nationals registering as nurses in England, which dropped by 92% since the Brexit vote last June.

The NHS Digital data also shows an increase in other members of NHS staff leaving the health service. In total, 6,391 EU workers quit in the three months after the EU referendum, compared with 4,125 in the same period in 2015 – a 55% increase. The increase in the number of EU staff employed by NHS England in the same period was 15%.

A number of NHS staff told the Guardian they knew colleagues who were considering leaving. One health worker from London, who asked to be anonymous, said: “I am worried. I work in operating theatres and I walk into some of them and they are all EU staffed.

“Every theatre in London has a European citizen in it. Heaven help us if they leave. A few of my colleagues have already left – the good ones.”

A midwife from Worcester, an EU national, said: “I do know of quite a few of my colleagues who are considering leaving. Also junior doctors who aren’t eligible for permanent residency because they don’t meet the criteria. It’s a total disaster.”

Jonathan Ashworth, the Labour party health spokesman, said: “Safeguarding the future of these staff should be an absolute priority in the Brexit negotiations. Theresa May and Jeremy Hunt [the health secretary] have been totally negligent in failing to guarantee a future for these staff before article 50 was triggered.”

Concern has also been raised about a slowdown in EU nationals joining the NHS since the referendum. Figures from the Nursing and Midwifery Council show a 90% drop in the number of nurses from EU states registering to join in December.

Barry Pactor, the managing director of TTM Healthcare, an international recruitment company, said: “Since Brexit TTM Healthcare has seen a marked difference in UK perception among EU healthcare professionals.

“Overwhelmingly concern centres on a lack of clarity around their status and not knowing whether they should plan a long-term future in the UK. With such concerns it is unavoidable that EU specialists will choose alternative countries to continue their careers.”

Some were more cautious about linking the departures with the Brexit vote. Jackie Smith, registrar and chief executive of the Nursing and Midwifery Council, said: “This is the first sign of a change and it is too early to say definitively that changes in this area are due to any one reason.”‎

The Department of Health sought to downplay fears of a staffing crisis. “As the secretary of state has repeatedly made clear, overseas workers form a crucial part of our NHS and we value their contribution immensely,” a spokesperson said.

“We are continuing to invest in the frontline: there are over 34,800 more professionally qualified clinical staff, including over 11,600 more doctors and over 13,400 more nurses on our wards since May 2010. Furthermore, there are 30,000 students training to be doctors and over 52,000 training to be nurses.”