POLITICO Playbook: Did Trump just threaten a shutdown over impeachment? Presented by Amazon

President Donald Trump left the door open to shutting down the government over impeachment when speaking to reporters on the South Lawn on Sunday, Nov. 3. | Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo

DRIVING THE DAY

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP just made this month much more … interesting. Speaking on the South Lawn on Sunday, the president left the door open to a government shutdown in 17 days. First, he said “no, no, no” when asked if he would shut down the government because he is being impeached. Then he said, “It depends on -- it depends on what the negotiation -- I wouldn’t commit to anything. It depends on what the negotiation is.”

REMEMBER: The government shutdown date is Nov. 21 -- Congress’ last day in session before the Thanksgiving break. Congress will revolt at the idea of a shutdown, and Democrats are never going to relent on impeachment because of a funding crisis. Some in the Capitol believe they can override the president’s veto of a spending bill. Needless to say, if the president is toying with a shutdown in his mind, this month might not be on autopilot as some may think.

IMPEACHMENT TODAY: The House is out, but four witnesses are scheduled for depositions today. All of them -- OMB’s Robert Blair and Brian McCormack, and the NSC’s John Eisenberg and Michael Ellis -- are expected to skip their meetings with the impeachment investigators. (hat tip: Andrew Desiderio)

THIS WEEK: Democrats are signaling that they’ll release the transcripts of the depositions conducted so far. On Sunday night, Trump alleged that Democrats might manipulate these records for political purposes. As Kyle Cheney explained, this is implausible: Not only were Republicans in the room for these encounters, but witnesses are also able to return to verify and sign off on the records.

THE FIREFIGHTER IN CHIEF ... L.A. TIMES: “As wildfires burn across California, President Trump lashes out at the state on Twitter,” by James Rainey: “Autumn in California now comes not only with fierce, wind-driven wildfires but with routine claims from President Trump that the state’s leaders are to blame for the disasters, followed by assurances from experts that the president doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

“The cycle renewed again Sunday, when Trump tweeted that Gov. Gavin Newsom and U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) had failed to properly manage the state’s forests, causing a string of recent blazes.

“Newsom ‘has done a terrible job of forest management. I told him from the first day we met that he must ‘clean’ his forest floors regardless of what his bosses, the environmentalists, DEMAND of him. Must also do burns and cut fire stoppers,’ Trump said in an early-morning missive on Twitter.

“A few hours later he concluded a slam on Democrats for their impeachment inquiry against him, concluding, ‘Corrupt Adam should clean up & manage the California forests which are always burning!’” LAT

WHAT TRUMP IS FIXATED ON -- “Trump inches closer to outing purported whistleblower,” by Rishika Dugyala and Sarah Ferris: “President Donald Trump on Sunday reiterated his calls to reveal the name of the whistleblower behind the complaint that led to the House’s formal impeachment inquiry, mentioning unconfirmed reports about the person’s identity and possible ties to the previous administration.

“Trump sought to discredit the whistleblower, linking the individual to his Democratic predecessor, President Barack Obama, as well as former CIA director John Brennan and former national security adviser Susan Rice — two of Obama’s top aides.

“‘There have have been stories written about a certain individual, a male, and they say he’s the whistleblower,’ Trump told reporters outside the White House. ‘If he’s the whistleblower, he has no credibility because he’s a Brennan guy, he’s a Susan Rice guy, he’s an Obama guy. And he hates Trump.’ ‘Now, maybe it’s not him. But if it’s him, you guys ought to release the information,’ the president added.” POLITICO

-- “Trump's impeachment inbox,” by Daniel Lippman: “President Trump doesn’t think House Democrats’ impeachment inquiry should get any media coverage.

“Meanwhile, he’s ravenously consuming news about the subject — primarily through a friendly lens. From the Oval Office to the White House residence to Air Force One, he’s closely tracking how Republican members of Congress are digesting the latest revelations on his handling of Ukraine, and monitoring their statements for any sign of hesitation or perceived disloyalty.” POLITICO

CLIP AND SAVE -- “Your guide to a year of Trump legal landmines,” by Darren Samuelsohn and Josh Gerstein

Good Monday morning.

NEW … WSJ’S MIKE BENDER is writing a book. “Selling Trump: The Inside Story of the 2020 Re-Election Campaign” will give “an unprecedented look at the business of presidential campaigns and the marketing of Donald Trump’s political brand, going behind the scenes on key decisions for the Trump team during the 2016 and 2020 elections.” Matt Latimer and Keith Urbahn of Javelin represented Bender. Sean Desmond will edit the book for Twelve Books.

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THE NEXT FRONTIER OF THE CULTURE WARS? -- NYT’S JEREMY PETERS in Arlington, Va.: “A Conservative Push to Make Trans Kids and School Sports the Next Battleground in the Culture War”: “From the 12th floor of a glass office tower in the Washington suburbs, a campaign to sway the governor’s race in Kentucky on Tuesday is being waged with an alarmist claim that has little to do with the race itself: If Democrats have their way, soon boys will be able to compete against girls in school sports.

“This scenario, presented in a pair of ads that are appearing on computer screens and smartphones across Kentucky, is the work of a little-known group funded by anonymous donors called the American Principles Project, which in recent years has focused on fighting more familiar clashes in the culture wars over same-sex marriage and abortion rights.

“The group is limiting its work to Kentucky for now, but strategists say it has bigger ambitions. It is effectively running a pilot program for the 2020 election that will help it determine how it could use the debate over transgender rights to rally conservative voters in support of President Trump.

“The results could inform what type of campaigns social conservatives run in the future — and answer whether the delicate and deeply personal questions around gender identity are the next major wedge issue in American politics or, as recent experience suggests, something that most voters and politicians would rather not see politicized.” NYT

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2020 WATCH … TEXAS TRIBUNE: “Democrats don’t have a candidate who would beat Trump in Texas today, poll finds,” by Ross Ramsey: “None of the top Democrats seeking the presidential nomination would beat President Donald Trump in Texas in an election held today — and neither would either of the Texas candidates in that race, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

“Joe Biden of Delaware, the former vice president, is running 7 percentage points behind Trump in Texas, as is U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont falls 5 percentage points short in a head-to-head with the president among Texas voters. And the two Texas candidates also lag behind Trump: former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of El Paso (who dropped out of the race Friday, after the poll was completed) by 6 percentage points, and former U.S. Housing Secretary and San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro by 13 percentage points.” Texas Tribune

-- NYT’S KATE KELLY and LISA LERER: “As Warren Gains in Race, Wall Street Sounds the Alarm”: “[F]rom corporate boardrooms to breakfast meetings, investor conferences to charity galas, Ms. Warren’s rise in the Democratic primary polls is rattling bankers, investors and their affluent clients, who see in the Massachusetts senator a formidable opponent who could damage not only their industry but their way of life. …

“Interviews with more than two dozen hedge-fund managers, private-equity and bank officials, analysts and lobbyists made clear that Ms. Warren has stirred more alarm than any other Democratic candidate. (Senator Bernie Sanders, who describes himself as a socialist, is also feared, but is considered less likely to capture the nomination.) …

“‘Everyone is nervous,’ said Steven Rattner, a prominent Democratic donor who manages the wealth of Michael R. Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor. ‘What scares the hell out of me is the way she would fundamentally change our free-enterprise system.’” NYT

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WAPO: “Sanders, Warren seek to clarify their differences as the fight for Democratic left intensifies,” by Chelsea Janes, Sean Sullivan and Isaac Stanley-Becker

TRUMP’S MONDAY -- The president will meet with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at 11:45 a.m. in the Oval Office. He will host the 2019 World Series Champions, the Washington Nationals, at 1:30 p.m. on the South Lawn. Trump will leave the White House at 4:10 p.m. en route to Lexington, Ky., where he will speak at a campaign rally at Rupp Arena at 7 p.m. Afterward, the president will return to Washington.

PLAYBOOK READS

PHOTO DU JOUR: Police in riot gear ask a woman to take off her mask outside a train station amid continued protests in Hong Kong, on Sunday, Nov. 3. | Dita Alangkara/AP Photo

BOSTON GLOBE: “‘I’m going to have to end up leaving my own country’: How Trump’s travel ban affects one family,” by Zoe Greenberg in Montreal

BACKSTORY -- “Inside Ukraine’s Push to Cultivate Trump From the Start,” by NYT’s Mark Mazzetti, Eric Lipton and Andrew Kramer: “Petro O. Poroshenko, Ukraine’s president until May, waged an elaborate campaign to win over Mr. Trump at a time when advisers had convinced Mr. Trump that Ukraine was a nest of Hillary Clinton supporters.

“Mr. Poroshenko’s campaign included trade deals that were politically expedient for Mr. Trump, meetings with Rudolph W. Giuliani, the freezing of potentially damaging criminal cases and attempts to use the former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort as a back channel.

“From the start, Mr. Poroshenko’s aides also scrambled to find ways to flatter the new American president — advising their boss to gush during his first telephone call with Mr. Trump about Tom Brady, the star New England Patriots quarterback whom Mr. Trump has long admired.” NYT

WE’LL ALWAYS HAVE PARIS … AP’S SETH BORENSTEIN : “For more than two years President Donald Trump has talked about pulling the United States out of the landmark Paris climate agreement. Starting Monday he finally can do something about it.

“Even then, though, the withdrawal process takes a year and wouldn’t become official until at least the day after the 2020 presidential election.” AP

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WHAT THE LEFT IS ARGUING ABOUT -- “Can Warren Actually Avoid Taxing the Middle Class?” by The Atlantic’s Ron Brownstein: “The biggest question surrounding Elizabeth Warren’s new Medicare for All plan isn’t whether she has produced a plausible pathway to raising $20.5 trillion over the next decade to fund it.

“Rather, the biggest question is whether $20.5 trillion is actually a plausible estimate of how much her plan would cost.

“Warren’s estimate is considerably lower than most projections for a single-payer system, as her team acknowledged in its own analysis of the plan. Even at a flat $20 trillion, such a plan would cost more than the federal government now spends on Social Security alone or on Medicare and Medicaid combined. Estimates from the nonpartisan Rand Corporation, the conservative-leaning Mercatus Center at George Mason University, and the center-left Urban Institute have each placed the 10-year cost of a single-payer plan at $31 trillion to $34 trillion.” Atlantic

FOR YOUR RADAR -- “Protesters Attack Iranian Consulate in Iraqi City,” by WSJ’s Sune Engel Rasmussen in Erbil, Iraq, and Ghassan Adnan in Baghdad: “Iraqi protesters attacked the Iranian consulate in the city of Karbala, in the latest sign of mounting anger against Tehran’s involvement in the country’s affairs.

“Protesters scaled the consulate’s walls late Sunday while hauling an Iraqi flag. Security forces fired rubber bullets to disperse protesters who were throwing Molotov cocktails over the wall, video footage witnesses provided to The Wall Street Journal showed.” WSJ

-- IRONY: This is happening as Iran commemorates the 40th anniversary of the 1979 takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, per AP.

MEDIAWATCH -- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Michelle Kosinski has left CNN, where she was senior diplomatic correspondent. She was a foreign correspondent at NBC before CNN. A CNN source said that her contract is up, and she decided to leave to do other things. When asked why she left, she told Playbook: “I’ve been at CNN for six years. It’s time.” She was recently spotted at ABC in New York. ABC didn’t respond to a request for comment. (h/t Daniel Lippman)

PLAYBOOKERS

Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at [email protected].

SPOTTED: Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) at Cielo Rojo in Takoma Park, Md., for breakfast Sunday morning.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Ben Smith, BuzzFeed News editor-in-chief. What he’s been reading recently: “I just finished ‘Advise and Consent,’ which was on the bestseller list for 95 weeks starting in 1959 and is now mostly forgotten (h/t Jamie Kirchick). It’s a pure Washington novel that centers on a high-stakes confirmation hearing, and feels both totally relevant today and unimaginable in the extent to which establishmentarian D.C. traditions have been swept aside, for good and ill.” Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Laura Bush is 73 … Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) is 72 … Rep. Carol Miller (R-W.Va.) is 69 (h/t Michael Chirico) … Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) is 48 … Avi Berkowitz … Jeremy Bernard ... Kit Seelye … Blair Latoff Holmes … Craig Stevens … Ashley Estes Kavanaugh … Rima Sirota of the Georgetown University Law Center (h/t Jon Haber) … Michael Fontneau is 35 … Alice Tong … POLITICO’s Gabby Orr, Amanda Eisenberg and Liz Davidson … WaPo’s Mike DeBonis … Eric Wagner of Bloomberg Government … AP’s Alex Sanz … WTOP’s Hillary Howard … Will Shaw ... Michael Clauser ... Emma Kenyon ... Laylee Ghiasi ... Jessica Reis, senior director at Bully Pulpit Interactive, is 36 (h/t Anthony DeAngelo) …

… Ken Weinstein, president and CEO of the Hudson Institute, is 58 … Max Gleischman, SVP at Breakwater Strategy (h/t wife Rachel Racusen) … Rick Ungar is 69 … Casey Martel of Global Automakers (h/t Benjamin Decatur) … Darla Bunting … Amanda Thayer … Julie Siegel, senior counsel for economic policy for Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) ... Jean Roseme … Katie Hughes ... Tim Saler ... Ezra Mechaber ... Florencia Iriondo ... Lucy Tutwiler Hodas … Kevin McVicker ... Trish Turner … Michael Hough is 4-0 ... Aaron White … WSJ’s Elena Chiriboga … Morgan Mohr ... Kari Kant … Jeremy Chwat is 45 … Jared Kleinstein … Edward Luttwak … Massachusetts state Rep. Ken Gordon … Hal Malchow … Julie Tippens … Casey Sinnwell (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) … Lynde Uihlein ... Susan Knapp ... Jacques Haeringer

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