History shows us that political leaders who get addicted to oil revenues suffer at the polls when the price of oil crashes.

And since Stephen Harper made resource development — especially oil — his key economic and industrial policy, might that same fate await him now that the price of oil has tanked and it looks like it is going to stay down there for the foreseeable future?

The link between oil prices and political success or failure is quite clear in Alberta. But also in oil rich countries around the world including Russia and Venezuela.

Peter Lougheed and the Progressive Conservatives enjoyed enormous electoral success in Alberta through the 1970s when the price of oil rose from US$20 to US$100 (inflation adjusted) a barrel. Lougheed retired in 1984 as the oil price was sliding. Could he see how bad it was going to get? In relative terms the crash of the 1980s was deeper than the current one.

His successor Don Getty struggled to regain Alberta’s advantage by investing public money in economic diversification projects. But he couldn’t overcome the disastrous drop in the price of oil and became increasingly unpopular. He even lost his Edmonton seat in the 1989 election and had to retreat to a safe rural riding.

Getty’s successor, Ralph Klein, entered the fray as an underdog but was elected party leader in 1992 and premier about six months later. At the time the oil price was still low and stayed that way through his second election campaign in 1997.

But then Klein got lucky as the price of oil began a steady climb upward. As did Klein’s electoral success. He racked up huge majorities just like Peter Lougheed as the price of oil went over the $100 a barrel mark and stayed there.

Ed Stelmach was next in line and he had the misfortune to govern during the 2008-2009 recession when the oil price tanked again because of the drop in world wide demand. He too became very unpopular and was eventually forced to resign.

Oil prices had bounced back by the time Alison Redford was elected premier and she won the next election handily as the oil price remained high. She was eventually forced to resign because of her extravagant use of public funds for personal travel and accommodation. Did she feel she was untouchable because the price of oil was on her side?

And we all know what happened to Jim Prentice the PCs’ supposed white knight who in the face of drastically dropping oil revenues lost the May election to the NDP by a wide margin and hasn’t been seen or heard in public since.

Of course, there are always other contributing factors to a political leaders’ success or failure. But when the price of oil is on the upswing they act as if they caused it when in reality they have nothing to do with the swings in the price of oil. In Canada we are price takers not price makers.

Terry Lynn Karl, a U.S academic who has been following the links between political power and oil prices since the 1970s points to Russia as a prime example.

“Most people don't understand that the decline of the former Soviet Union was closely linked to the 1986 collapse in oil prices. Putin later took advantage of high prices to build his own personal power. That could be at stake if prices stay low,” she told The Tyee as prices began to tank last year.

Canada is not Russia. But there’s no question that Stephen Harper bet the farm on oil and now that oil is not as lucrative as it once was Canada at large is feeling the impact of a boom-bust economy.

Our loonie has taken a dive. Investment in resource projects is down. Unemployment rates are edging up, especially in the west. Government revenues have shrunk.

Harper says that it’s only the energy sector that is in trouble right now, the rest of the Canadian economy is doing just fine.

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But in the end the energy sector may turn out to be his Achilles heel.