In state after state, the pattern is the same.

Hillary Clinton’s team swooped in early, organized methodically and captured support from the Democratic establishment. Bernie Sanders arrived late, opened eyes with a few jam-packed rallies and quickly generated a ground game powered by the progressive grass roots.


In the end, Sanders’ chances in the 11 states that vote on Tuesday hinge on demographics. The higher the African-American share of the electorate — the group with which Sanders has most struggled to make inroads, even as he gained popularity within the Democratic Party over the past year — the lower the odds of a Sanders victory.

Here is POLITICO’s guide to the Super Tuesday Democratic landscape.

Alabama: 53 delegates

There’s been almost no public polling ahead of Alabama’s Democratic primary. We do have a key number, though: 51 percent. That was the black share of the 2008 primary vote, according to exit polls, and Clinton is expected to dominate among those voters just as she did in South Carolina.

The one recent poll — a mid-February Public Policy Polling survey — put Clinton ahead by 28 percentage points, driven by a 3-to-1 edge among African-Americans. Clinton also has a critical endorsement from the influential Alabama Democratic Conference, the African-American wing of the state party, and she got a big head start on the ground. She is likely to roll up a comfortable win.

Arkansas: 32 delegates

Move along. There’s nothing to see here.

Bill Clinton’s native state, where he served as governor and Hillary Clinton served as first lady for years, is expected to deliver the Clintons another healthy victory on Tuesday. Arkansas Democrats still feel connected to the Clinton family decades after they moved out of the governor’s mansion, in part because the former president still visits frequently.

“It’s a no-brainer here,” state Democratic Party chairman Vincent Insalaco said recently. “It’s not even a question.”

Colorado: 66 delegates

The caucus format, which often rewards intensity of support and insurgent campaigns, creates one of Sanders’ best chances to notch a Super Tuesday victory and maintain some momentum. An October mega-rally in Boulder drew an enormous crowd and was one of the first moments in which it became clear Sanders’ campaign was tapping into something deep.

He has since committed significant time and resources in Colorado, outspending the Clinton campaign more than 2-to-1 on TV. The electorate is significantly whiter than in the Southern states that vote at the same time, and Sanders’ performance in Nevada suggests he can be competitive with Hispanic voters in the West.

But Clinton is fighting hard for the state too, even though it has twice stung her: once when Jerry Brown defeated her husband in 1992 and again when Barack Obama walloped her in the 2008 caucuses. This year, Clinton has most of the state’s top Democratic officials in her camp. And with opportunity comes risk for Sanders — a Clinton victory here would be a major blow for Sanders’ campaign.

Georgia: 102 delegates

Sanders attracted a big crowd to a recent event held at Morehouse College in Atlanta, part of his campaign tour of historic black colleges and universities. He even predicted a Super Tuesday victory, noting how far his Georgia campaign had come.

If only.

Sanders doesn’t break 30 percent in any recent polls of one of the biggest, delegate-rich prizes on the Super Tuesday map. The African-American share of the Democratic electorate was more than 50 percent in 2008; according to one recent survey, the Vermont senator was getting blown out among black voters, 70 percent to 14 percent.

Massachusetts: 91 delegates

Vermont’s southern neighbor is one of a handful of states in which Sanders’ Super Tuesday outlook is promising.

He has strong grass-roots support in Massachusetts, and Sanders may also reap some reward from the $5.2 million he spent on Boston TV during the New Hampshire primary. Clinton has the backing of most of the state’s top elected officials — though the biggest name in Massachusetts Democratic politics, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, has not endorsed either candidate.

Yet for all of Sanders’ relative advantages in Massachusetts compared with other March 1 states, the three most recent polls in the state show a very tight race. Sanders led by 5 percentage points in one; Clinton led by 5 points in another; and a third poll showed a dead heat.

Minnesota: 77 delegates

With its caucus system and relatively big delegate haul, Minnesota is central to Sanders’ Super Tuesday strategy. He’s drawn huge crowds in the Twin Cities area — and he flew to Rochester for a big rally Saturday night as he was getting routed in South Carolina’s primary. Sanders’ campaign sees the state and its progressive, largely white electorate as right in the senator’s sweet spot.

The Clinton operation recognized his strength in Minnesota and has moved aggressively to counter him; both campaigns, which have vigorous operations in the state, have filled the airwaves with ads.

This is one of two key states to watch — Colorado is the other — when gauging Sanders’ Super Tuesday performance. If he can’t win here, in caucuses that were carried by Tom Harkin in 1992 and were kind to Jesse Jackson in 1988 and Dennis Kucinich in 2004, it’s probably not going to be a very good day for the Vermont senator.

Oklahoma: 38 delegates

The most recent public survey in Oklahoma showed Clinton’s lead over Sanders within the margin of error — and state Democratic officials agree the race is tight.

That same poll suggests Sanders’ anti-Wall Street, income-inequality message has resonated in Oklahoma to a much greater degree than in neighboring Arkansas and Texas. There was evidence of that Wednesday in Tulsa, where Sanders attracted nearly 7,000 people to a rally.

Sanders has also owned the airwaves here: He has more than doubled Clinton’s spending on TV, cable and radio.

Tennessee: 67 delegates

Sanders has barely given Tennessee a look. He hasn’t spent any ad money here and hasn’t even visited. The sparse polling in the state suggests why: Clinton has a big lead in the state, especially among African-American Democrats, who cast more than a quarter of the vote in the 2008 primary.

Texas: 252 delegates

In 2008, Democratic turnout tripled over 2004 and Hillary Clinton captured a must-win victory powered by women, Latinos and rural whites. And this time around, she’s poised to win Texas by a much bigger margin than 4 percentage points.

There have been seven public polls in the state in February, and the RealClearPolitics polling average puts the spread between Clinton and Sanders at 26 percentage points. The latest poll, from Monmouth University, is especially grim for Sanders in the biggest delegate prize to date: Clinton leads 81-8 percent among African-Americans, 75-19 percent among women and 68-32 percent among Latinos.

Vermont: 16 delegates

Even if everything else goes wrong for Sanders on Tuesday, his home state will deliver: He’s capturing more than 80 percent of the vote, according to the two most recent polls.

That’s despite resistance from the state’s top Democratic leaders, many of whom are supporting Clinton. But the grass roots appear to be firmly behind their junior senator.

Virginia: 95 delegates

Clinton has led Sanders by double digits in Virginia in every poll taken this year. She’s powered in part by support from African-Americans, who cast 30 percent of the vote in 2008, and Clinton also has a powerful friend, Gov. Terry McAuliffe, in her corner.

There’s some thought that Sanders might do well in populous Northern Virginia, but even if so, it’s probably not enough to help him carry a large state where he hasn’t even been up on TV.

Hanna Trudo contributed to this report.