As voter approval erodes, Collins appears to be taking a political approach to impeachment

An upcoming vote on whether to remove President Donald Trump from office could be the toughest of Sen. Susan Collins’ career.

The four-term Maine Republican is headed into what’s expected to be her most competitive reelection battle this fall. She’s facing a backlash back home over her support for Trump’s Supreme Court pick, Brett Kavanaugh, and for her vote in favor of a sweeping GOP tax bill. And while her impeachment vote isn’t expected to determine Trump’s fate, it could be momentous in deciding whether she holds onto her seat.

“That Kavanaugh vote was huge,” said Mark Brewer, a professor of political science at the University of Maine. But “impeachment is impeachment,” he added. Even if the Senate doesn’t act to remove Trump from office, which is widely expected, “it’s still a very weighty and consequential vote.”

Collins — like some other senators — has stressed that she intends to be an impartial juror during the Senate’s impeachment trial and that it’s not appropriate for her to declare in advance how she intends to vote.

When she last voted on impeachment, after the Senate trial of President Bill Clinton in 1999, Collins also kept her decision close to the vest. She announced the day of the vote that she would opt to acquit Clinton on both impeachment articles, the Portland Press Herald reported at the time.

Ahead of that vote, Collins described how she approached the impeachment trial. “The facts, the evidence, the law, the Constitution, weigh most heavily in making my decision, but I am mindful of the fact the framers gave this decision to the Senate rather than to a court in order for there to be a broader perspective brought to the issue,” she said then, according to the Associated Press.

Collins’ office did not respond to a request for comment about how politics are playing into her decision this time around. But some political observers suggest that recent comments from the Maine Republican indicate that politics are indeed on her mind as she approaches the consequential vote.

Asked by Politico this month about an impasse between Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) over trial parameters in the Senate, Collins said, “I don’t think Chuck Schumer is very interested in my opinion since he’s just launched a website in Maine and just committed an additional $700,000 in additional negative advertising from the Majority Forward PAC.”

She added of Schumer, “I don’t think he’s really very interested in doing anything but trying to defeat me by telling lies to the people of Maine. And you can quote me on that.”

Despite this, Collins told reporters in Maine on Friday that she was working “with a ‘fairly small group’ of Republican senators and party leaders to ensure trial rules would allow House impeachment managers and Trump’s lawyers to call witnesses,” the Bangor Daily News reported.

“I am hopeful that we can reach an agreement on how to proceed with the trial that will allow the opportunity for both the House and the president’s counsel if they choose to do so,” she said.

‘What’s the least bad option?’

Politically, the impeachment vote is fraught for Collins, who’s trying to maintain an appearance of independence from Trump while holding support from the GOP base she’ll need to win reelection in November, according to political experts in Maine and in Washington.

“Senator Collins is in a tough spot,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan newsletter Inside Elections. She’s one of only two Senate Republicans running for reelection in a state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, and she has to form a coalition of voters who support Trump and who oppose Trump, so any vote she takes is going to anger somebody.”

Brewer of the University of Maine said of Collins, “I don’t think she has a good course of action here.” She’s probably trying to figure out, “what’s the least bad option of me in terms of reelection,” he said.

That’s not to say she’s only thinking about politics, Brewer said, “but it’s also natural as an elected official who wants to be reelected, she’s trying to figure out how the options in front of her might impact her reelection chances.”

Last fall, about 35 percent of Maine voters approved of the job Collins was doing, compared to 50 percent who disapproved, according to a poll from the left-leaning group Public Policy Polling. She trailed a generic Democratic Senate candidate 44 percent to 41 percent in the 2020 Maine Senate race, that poll found.

Public Policy Polling also found that 53 percent of Mainers supported Trump’s impeachment, compared with 44 percent opposed.

“It’s going to be hard for Susan Collins to get reelected if she opposes impeachment,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. “She’s already lost a lot of her crossover support from Democrats, and that would cause her to lose even more.”

Holly Burke, a spokesperson for the Maine Democratic Party, said there’s an appetite among Maine voters “for a truly independent voice and someone with real integrity.” However, she said of Collins, “I don’t think she’s indicating that she’s going to stand up to her party” on impeachment.

Marie Follaytar, co-founder of the progressive group Mainers for Accountable Leadership, believes there’s a good chance Collins will vote for conviction, but not for moral or Constitutional reasons. “It’s one way she could attempt to win back some moderate Democrats who are inclined to see Margaret Chase Smith in Senator Collins, who she lost when she voted for Kavanaugh and the tax scam.”

According to Follaytar, the two factors that will make the most difference are the proximity in time to the primary filing deadline for her race and the margin in the Senate — if her vote isn’t needed by her fellow Republicans, she may be more likely to try to use it to win back Democrats and independents.

“It’s more likely to be a political calculation than a moral stand. She’s already given indications of this by citing Schumer’s fundraising,” said Follaytar.

Challenge from the right?

A vote to acquit Trump could risk Collins’ support from the GOP, however, which might be even more costly politically.

“I think she would lose reelection,” said Gonzales of Inside Elections.“I think that she would alienate some Republican voters” while “Democrats who are upset over Kavanaugh are still going to be upset about Kavanaugh, even if she votes to remove the president.”

Ron Bonjean, a GOP strategist and former U.S. Senate aide, agreed that there’s little for Collins to gain politically by voting to oust Trump from office.

“Voting to remove the president would infuriate those who are supporting Trump, and that makes all the difference in an election like this,” he said. “Voting for removal won’t give her any credit with Democrats; they’re still likely going to vote for their candidate.”

Derek Levasseur, a conservative activist and former police officer from Fairfield, dropped his primary bid against Collins in the fall, but with a Senate impeachment trial expected in the coming weeks or months, it’s possible that Collins will be forced to vote ahead of the March 16 filing deadline for primary candidates. The Republican primary vote will be held on June 9.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Friday that the House could vote on a resolution this week to appoint managers and transmit articles of impeachment to the Senate.

Lauren McCauley contributed to the reporting.

Photo: A mobile billboard calling on Sen. Susan Collins to impeach President Trump was spotted in Bangor and at sites across Maine. | Courtesy of Mainers for Accountable Leadership