The “Fantasy Spotlight” series has been one in which I am highlighting players whose rankings vary somewhat wildly depending on your favorite ranking site. This week’s spotlight is no different. Today, we are putting TJ Yeldon under the microscope.

Fantasy success at the RB position typically stems from 3 things: skill, offensive line play, and opportunity/scheme. We can debate Yeldon 's skill all we want, but that has been debated about since the draft and everyone has their own, unwavering opinion, so I am going to focus on the offensive line play and opportunity/scheme portions of the formula.

Let’s start with the offensive line. One of the common narratives surrounding Yeldon post-draft/pre-fantasy drafts was how awful of a situation he came into. The common thread of this narrative was how poor his offensive line was, which would obviously hinder his immediate real-life and fantasy success. So my first goal was to find out exactly how bad this line was. Naturally, I used PFF ratings to aid my research, and, I was honestly surprised by what I found. Their ratings...weren’t terrible . Don’t confuse that with me saying they were good, because they weren’t, but their line isn’t as much of a talentless wasteland as I anticipated. Their run blocking had a season total ranking of 25th (last place was the Chargers - with a ranking almost twice as bad as the Jags negative ranking; why is nobody mentioning this as a hit on Melvin Gordon’s value?). And that number is even a little skewed. The lineup was shuffled for the first several games of the year, until finally the starting 5 was nailed down. Once this starting 5 was in place, their metrics improved by more than 2 points per game, bumping them up to the 23rd ranked run blocking unit in the league over the second half of the season. More importantly, the team has made a few changes to the line in the offseason, as 2 of the 5 starters have been replaced. Center Luke Bowanko has been replaced by former Raider Stefan Wisniewski , who is a considerably better pass blocker and rated [marginally] better as a run blocker. RT Austin Pasztor , who the team cut in the preseason, has been replaced by former Cowboy Jermey Parnell . Granted, his snap count has been somewhat limited, but he ranks as a much better blocker in all facets of the game than Cleveland-bound Pasztor . Here is a look at a comparison of the 2014 and 2015 units:

2014 Offensive line Position Name Pass Block Screen Block Run Block Cumulative LT Luke Joeckel -14.4 0 -4.3 -18.7 LG Zane Beadles 7.4 1.5 -8.8 0.1 C Luke Bowanko -9.3 0 1.7 -7.6 RG Brandon Linder 10.6 1 4.1 15.7 RT Austin Pasztor -5.9 0 -2.8 -8.7

Total -11.6 2.5 -10.1 -19.2

2015 Offensive Line Position Name Pass Block Screen Block Run Block Cumulative LT Luke Joeckel -14.4 0 -4.3 -18.7 LG Zane Beadles 7.4 1.5 -8.8 0.1 C Stefan Wisniewski -5.6 1 3.5 -1.1 RG Brandon Linder 10.6 1 4.1 15.7 RT Jermey Parnell 3.4 -0.5 4.8 7.7

Total 1.4 3 -0.7 3.7

As you can see, the cumulative “Run Blocking” score moves up a full 9.5 points, a substantial amount in the PFF rating system. A score of -0.7 would rank this unit as the 12th best in the league. Now, that is misleading because I haven’t taken into account any backups, who generally bring the score down (the Jags were ranked 17th last season if backups weren’t taken into consideration, 25th with the backups), but it still means that this unit has a good chance of ending the year ranked in the 18-20 range. And that is assuming no improvement (or regression, for that matter) from anyone on the line. If any improvement at all is seen from perennial disappointment Luke Joeckel (or anyone else), then this line could find themselves ranked in the top half of the league. At the very least, this group shouldn’t be a causal factor in Yeldon not reaching his year 1 potential. Also - not that it means much since it is taking into account primarily 2nd, 3rd, and 4th string play - the Jags ended the preseason as the 9th best run-blocking unit.

Next is the scheme/opportunity evaluation. For this section, I went through the stats of all 10 seasons of new OC Greg Olson’s coordinating career. The first thing I found: Olson is flexible. While some coaches will stick to their offensive stylings no matter how successful they are, Olson is not afraid to adapt and amplify his team’s strengths or hide their weaknesses. For example, in 2006 as the OC of the Rams, Steven Jackson averaged over 27 touches per game. On the flip side, in 2014 as the OC of the Raiders, McFadden (the team’s leading rusher) averaged 12 touches per game. Obviously this can be a good thing or a bad thing for Yeldon . If he succeeds, his OC will FEED him. However, if he flops, he may fade into the background. This clearly makes him somewhat of a risk.

At this point in the evaluation stage, we have another tool at our disposal - the preseason. Specifically the 3rd preseason game, which is commonly referred to as the regular season dress rehearsal. Yeldon 's stats in this game may not have been very sexy, but, as someone who has Yeldon on his Dynasty team, his usage was glorious. Yeldon was the only back to get a carry on the first 2 drives, at which point he was taken out. These 2 drives saw Yeldon get 8 carries, including back-to-back goal line carries (which resulted in a TD), and 1 reception for 12 yards. Most importantly, he stayed on the field for all third down plays, and even when Robinson got to run with the starters on a first-half drive, Yeldon was inserted back into the lineup once the team got to the Red Zone. This game showed just how much faith the team has in him, in all situations. He is slated to be a true 3 down back, who they are willing to using in the passing game, and the team’s goal line back. If the regular season can bring about efficiency with this workload, the sky's the limit.

But let’s pump the brakes here for a minute and establish a reasonable baseline for the rookie. Looking at Olson’s previous years as an OC, 8 out of 10 of his teams his lead rusher averaged 13.1 carries/game or more. 6 out of 10 teams his lead rusher averaged both 13.1+ carries/game and 1.5+ receptions per game. I think both of these are more than attainable for Yeldon , and thus I decided to use them as my baseline. I also used mundane averages of 4 yards per run and 7.5 yards per catch. That would give him the following stats on the season:

210 carries for 840 yards

24 receptions for 180 yards

I then used two different touchdown totals to give a range of outcomes, and compared these totals to last year’s fantasy RB rankings to see where he would rank:

210 carries for 840 yards, 24 receptions for 180 yards, 7 total TDs

Standard scoring - 144 points, RB 19



PPR scoring - 168 points, RB 20

210 carries for 840 yards, 24 receptions for 180 yards, 4 total TDs

Standard scoring - 126 points, RB 22



PPR scoring - 150 points, RB 24

Since you can’t judge his value without knowing how much he will cost you, I looked at his current ADP (as of 9/8):

So it seems pretty easy for me to conclude that, at his current ADP, Yeldon is a value pick. I personally don’t see him being used less that the numbers I gave above. There seems to be little to no indication that Yeldon will be one of the least used RBs in Olson’s long coordinating career. And, given the fact that they want to use him as both a true 3-down back and the primary goal line back, a bump from 14 touches a game to 17-18 wouldn’t surprise me. His efficiency and TD totals may vary, but they would have to waver quite a bit to drop him down from the RB 19-20 range as projected above to the RB 27-28 range where he is being drafted. Even if that were to occur, then that would mean you got the proper return on your investment, which is hardly a bad thing in the 5th round.

From everything that I have read and seen in the preseason, from all the stats and rankings, from the offensive line to the coaching staff, I see Yeldon as a great value at his current ADP. It seems far more likely that he outperforms his RB 27-28 status than it does that he underperforms. He most likely will shape up to be a mid-low RB 2 for your team, or, at worst, a very solid flex play, and he even has an outside shot at becoming a solid, every week RB 2. While the may not be the most likely scenario, the fact that he is likely being drafted as your RB 3 or a consolation RB2 should buffer you from losing any value in your pick.

Here’s to the 2015 fantasy season. Good luck drafting, and bookmark this page for weekly fantasy insights!

StatNerd out,

Eric M.

@ericmcdonald7

@SportsCloset