CHANCELLOR ANGELA MERKEL’S party is braced for a backlash at key state polls today over the German leader’s liberal refugee policy.

The right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) is prepared to scoop up the protest vote from angry voters.

More than 12 million voters are due to go to the ballot box to elect three new regional parliaments in the southwestern states of Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, as well as eastern Saxony-Anhalt in the so-called Super Sunday polls.

The elections are the biggest since Germany registered a record influx of refugees, and are largely regarded as a referendum on Merkel’s decision to open the country’s doors to people fleeing war.

“These elections are very important… as they will serve as a litmus test for the government’s disputed policy” on refugees, Duesseldorf University political scientist Jens Walther told AFP.

Surveys in the run-up to the vote showed that support for Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its junior coalition partner Social Democratic Party (SPD) dropping while the populist AfD was steadily gaining momentum and expected to record a surge in backing in all three states.

The CDU was bracing for one of its poorest showings in years, particularly in its traditional stronghold of Baden-Wuerttemberg, with a poll published on Thursday by ZDF public television showing support plummeting by 10 percentage points to 29% — putting it for the first time behind the Greens — while the AfD snatched 11%.

Guido Wolf, the CDU’s leading candidate in the southwest, has described it as the “most difficult election campaign” the party has had to run.

In Rhineland-Palatinate, where the fortunes of the CDU had been rising with the latest poll giving it 35%, the party is seen struggling to defeat the Social Democratic Party, scoring 36%.

The AfD meanwhile is hoping to crack the 10% mark.

In Saxony-Anhalt, where the CDU still commands a large lead with 32%, AfD has 18%, at the heels of the second-placed Left Party, at 21%.

‘A lot to lose’

Merkel has been under intense pressure to change course and shut Germany’s doors after 1.1 million refugees — many of them Syrians — arrived in Europe’s biggest economy last year alone.

But she has resolutely refused to impose a cap on arrivals, insisting instead on common European action that includes distributing refugees among the EU’s 28 member states.

As dissent grew over her stance, AfD has capitalised on the darkening mood.

Founded in 2013 as an anti-euro party, AfD has since morphed into one that sparked a storm in January after suggesting police may have to shoot at migrants at the borders.

Although the upstart party has seats in five regional parliaments and is represented in the European Parliament, it has so far made its biggest gains in former communist eastern states that still lag western Germany in jobs and prosperity.

But its inroads into western states have sparked alarm in a Germany mindful of its Nazi past.

Ingeborg Klumpp, a 74-year-old pensioner, went to vote in Stuttgart in the hope that “with my little cross on the ballot paper, I will contribute to the fact that people won’t vote for the AfD”.

“The campaign of hatred they ran these last weeks was horrible,” she said.

On the eve of the vote, Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere joined calls from both the political mainstream as well as civic and religious groups, urging the electorate to shun AfD.

“AfD has no political programme and no capacity to resolve problems,” he told Die Welt newspaper yesterday. “We must make it clear — this party hurts our country.”

Merkel herself described AfD as a “party that does not bring cohesion in society and offers no appropriate solutions to problems, but only stokes prejudices and divisions”.

She has also shrugged them off as a temporary diversion saying that once her government’s policies show results on reducing migrant numbers, “I’m convinced that from there, the support that AfD is enjoying right now will drop off.”

- © AFP 2016