The Fix’s Chris Cillizza breaks down how close the battle for the Senate really is. (The Washington Post)

The Fix’s Chris Cillizza breaks down how close the battle for the Senate really is. (The Washington Post)

Prominent Democratic strategists are growing increasingly nervous that the national political environment is not only bad for their side but moving in the wrong direction in the final days before the election, a trend that not only could cost their party control of the Senate but also result in double-digit House losses.

“The environment has settled, and it’s bad,” said one senior Democratic Party operative closely monitoring the party’s prospects. The source added that Democratic candidates’ numbers among independents and seniors — critical voting blocs — have begun to erode. “They are just not as friendly to us as they once were,” the operative said.

Those trends are borne out in several key Senate races — most notably the contest for the open seat in Iowa. State Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is leading Rep. Bruce Braley (D) by 12 points among independents in a Des Moines Register poll released Saturday night. She holds a seven-point edge among all voters.

In conversations last week with more than a dozen Democratic strategists deeply involved in this campaign — a few who were willing to speak on the record — there was widespread pessimism about the party’s chances Tuesday.

“Challenging,” acknowledged Ali Lapp, executive director of the House Majority PAC, a super PAC spending millions of dollars on ads to promote House Democrats, referring to the national dynamic.

Atlanta campaign volunteer Debra Dixon-Wade calls voters on Oct. 16 about the Senate race between Democrat Michelle Nunn and Republican David Perdue. Democratic strategists called the midterm environment “challenging.” (Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

“It’s a very challenging environment,” agreed Penny Lee, a Democratic lobbyist and longtime political aide to former Pennsylvania governor Ed Rendell.

“Unsettled,” offered Democratic pollster Fred Yang.

“The trends are not good,” said Steve Rosenthal, a veteran Democratic and labor strategist.

There were lots (and lots) of reasons given for the difficulties Democrats are facing: The Senate map. The historic trends of second-term, midterm elections — a.k.a. the “six-year itch.” Voter apathy. But the one factor that virtually every person I talked to cited as the biggest reason for the party’s predicament was President Obama.

“This off-year election has become almost entirely a referendum on the president,” said one Democratic consultant involved in many closely fought congressional races. “It’s not just anger at [the Affordable Care Act]. He has become, rightly or wrongly, the symbol of dysfunction in Washington. That has led to a demoralized Democratic base, energized Republicans. And those in the middle have an easy way of venting their frustration, and that is to punish the president’s party.”

Said another Democratic strategist knee-deep in the 2014 midterms: “It is not all Obama, but a lot of it is.” People are “very upset with government,” said the strategist, who, like others interviewed, spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid. “And people think Democrats are in charge, so they are taking it out on Democrats more than Republicans.”

Asked for a single word to describe why this election was looking increasingly bleak for Democrats, another party consultant offered this: “Obama.”

Polling bears out Obama’s negative effect on his party’s chances. In a trio of NBC-Marist University polls released Sunday on the three key Senate races, the president’s approval rating was at 32 percent in Kentucky, 39 percent in Louisiana and 41 percent in Georgia. His numbers were anemic even in states he won in 2012. Obama struggles to break out of the low 40s in Colorado. In Iowa, he barely crests 40 percent in the Real Clear Politics polling average.

Erik Smith, a veteran Democratic operative, pushed back on the “it’s all Obama’s fault” narrative.

“President Obama isn’t the cause of this bad environment, but how candidates have chosen to handle his lower approval ratings has often compounded their problems,” Smith said. “While candidates may want to distance themselves from the incumbent president in their advertising and public statements, the president’s base is still strong and committed to him, and as a result that mixed message dampens their enthusiasm for the candidate. In the end, these Democratic candidates fail to win new support and lose traditional support at the same time by trying to play it too politically.”

It’s also worth noting that although there was significant pessimism among the people we talked to, about half of them held out hope that Democrats could still snatch victory from the jaws of defeat — noting, rightly, that races all over the country remain close despite the eroding environment.

“Given the hand that 2014 dealt us, it’s pretty impressive that so many races are still close enough to win on turnout,” said Greg Speed, president of America Votes, a Democratic-aligned group.

Bill Burton, a veteran of the Obama White House, added: “I think it’s amazing that we’re still even talking about states like Georgia and Kansas in an environment that is this bad.”

True enough. And the unsettled nature of the electorate could well mean that we are in for more twists and turns before Tuesday. “It’s time to stop trying to read the tea leaves,” Rosenthal said, summing up the chaos.

Of course, with the last ads shipped and the last polls conducted, there’s not much to do but try to read the tea leaves. And from what Democrats are seeing, it doesn’t look good. At all.