Foregone conclusions as recently as two weeks ago have been upended. The American League wild card race will go down to the last day absent dramatic performances ( read my thoughts here) and the AL MVP race has become very compelling for two reasons:

Miguel Cabrera has cooled off significantly in the past two weeks, batting .136 with 0 home runs in September (all data through Wednesday, September 11th) 1.has cooled off significantly in the past two weeks, batting .136 with 0 home runs in September (all data through Wednesday, September 11th)

Mike Trout, already having an outstanding year is having an explosive September, batting .417 with an OPS of 1.118. He achieved that OPS without hitting a single home run, but with an otherworldly .563 OBP. 2., already having an outstanding year is having an explosive September, batting .417 with an OPS of 1.118. He achieved that OPS without hitting a single home run, but with an otherworldly .563 OBP.





STILL think Cabrera will win the MVP, but that doesn't mean an analysis between Cabrera and Trout isn't worth undertaking. I'm already on record stating I believe Miguel Cabrera will win the MVP, but I didn't know Cabrera was going to get dinged up and might be slow in recovering any more than I knew Trout was going to up the ante on the season he was already having. I'll also NOT bury the lead--Ithink Cabrera will win the MVP, but that doesn't mean an analysis between Cabrera and Trout isn't worth undertaking.





My primary measure is adaptations of Baseball Reference (B-R) and FanGraphs (FG) WAR values for both players:





















I'll do a more in-depth discussion of the differences between the B-R and FG values in the offseason, but will define what I THINK these values mean. I'll state up front I have no idea how they're calculated but I don't have to know to interpret them.





Rbat is the number of runs the formulae state Cabrera and Trout delivered with their hitting--the differences in the values is far less important than the fact both sets of equations have Trout and Cabrera delivering similar runs. Trout hits for far less power than Cabrera (as does anyone else not named Chris Davis or Paul Goldschmidt) but makes up for it by leading the majors in hits. is the number of runs the formulae state Cabrera and Trout delivered with their hitting--the differences in the values is far less important than the fact both sets of equations have Trout and Cabrera delivering similar runs. Trout hits for far less power than Cabrera (as does anyone else not namedor) but makes up for it by leading the majors in hits. B-R Runs Created shows Trout creating 144 runs and Cabrera a major league-leading 146--essentially a wash.





I like a simple little metric that shows the runs a player created:

Runs + RBI - Home Runs

For Trout and Cabrera it looks like this:

Over 70% of Trout's plate appearances were in the #2 spot in the lineup, not typically a RBI slot. I use this number to see if top-of-the-lineup players overcome the lack of RBI opportunities by scoring runs themselves, and in Trout's case he has, but Cabrera has had a remarkable season--driving in runs AND scoring them as well. It's an idea I'll return to later.





Tne next two WAR factors, Rbaser and Rdp measure how well the players perform on the base paths. Rbaser measures stolen bases and caught stealing, advancing on passed balls or wild pitches, taking an extra base (i.e., going from 1st to 3rd on a single) and reaching on errors. All these items are measures of not only speed but savvy and it should surprise no one Trout receives value in this category and Cabrera doesn't. Rdp is how well players stay out of a double plays, another proxy measure of speed, and these two measures taken together give a thumbnail as to how well a hitter does once he actually gets on base.





The next two factors measure defensive capabilities. The first, Rfield is what it seems, how well the player actually fields his position. I hesitate when I discuss any player's fielding because fielding metrics (with apologies to John Dewan) are downright archaic compared to the advances made in measuring offense. Trout's fielding percent isn't bad but his UZR/150 is down significantly from 2012.

Rpos is an attempt to normalize WAR so that cross-position comparisons can be made, very much like I'm doing here. Cabrera is a third baseman, a position the modern era considers an offensive position in which good defense is a nice bonus but not crucial. Center field, on the other hand, is considered a critical defensive position and rightly so since balls that aren't flagged down become extra-base hits. Therefore, the Rpos number is simply that, a number assigned to a player based on his position (and the percentage of innings he plays at that position). This is how both WAR calculations value each position:





David Ortiz to Joe Mauer, the catcher FG has with the highest WAR (5.0)--right from the start Mauer would have an approximate 2.5 points of WAR advantage over Ortiz just because of the positions they play and NOT due to any other hitting, base running or defensive factor. I understand why this is done, but are MVP voters really going to say "Well, that Trout didn't hit as many homers as Cabrera?" I doubt it, and if they're smart enough to be entrusted with an MVP ballot they should be able to account for differences in position when making judgments. They seemed to be able to do that in 2008 when Dustin Pedroia won with offensive numbers that were good but not stunning--but REALLY good for a second baseman. To use an extreme example, compareto, the catcher FG has with the highest WAR (5.0)--right from the start Mauer would have an approximate 2.5 points of WAR advantage over Ortiz just because of the positions they play and NOT due to any other hitting, base running or defensive factor. I understand why this is done, but are MVP voters really going to say "Well, that Trout didn't hit as many homers as Cabrera?" I doubt it, and if they're smart enough to be entrusted with an MVP ballot they should be able to account for differences in position when making judgments. They seemed to be able to do that in 2008 whenwon with offensive numbers that were good but not stunning--but REALLY good for a second baseman.













The last value, Rrep is the familiar value over a replacement player. I'll include both B-R and FG exact definitions:

B-R--Rrep is the value of an average player over a replacement player given the player's playing time. Replacement level is set at around a .320 team W-L percentage. AL's is 22 runs per 650 PA and NL's is 18 runs per 650 PA. A player's PA is the smaller of actual PA and 4PA/G*G in order to not overvalue leadoff hitters.

FG-- Replacement Runs set at 20 runs per 600 plate apperances

Allow me to distill these definitions down--these players are BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD. Be sure you haven't eaten before you see this list--it shows recent players with 600+ PA and a WAR less than 0:



