Why abandoning the Kurds is awful for international geopolitics and the U.S.

Trump, the Turks and the Kurds, one hell of a spicy cocktail

Over the last couple years there has been a lot of debate about President Trump’s numerous blunders and their impact on the state of the world. This week’s decision to withdraw U.S. troops from the Northern Syrian border looks like just one more geopolitical misstep on Trump’s resume but it will have very real implications on the state of international geopolitics and the relationship between the U.S. and their allies. Why is that?

Overview of the region and proposed Kurdistan border

In the region overlapping Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey (Yes, all of THOSE places…) has historically lived a people called the Kurds. These 25 to 30 million Kurds have not officially had a country despite trying since 1919 and have been persecuted by their stronger neighbors. In 1970, a small region of Northern Iraq was granted autonomous status by the Iraqi government after decades of revolution (renewed in 2005). Due to the “tense” nature of the region the Kurds have taken part in many wars and helped the Americans on many occasions; notably during the 2003 invasion of Iraq to topple the Saddam Hussein regime and also more recently in the fight against ISIS in Syria. The Kurds stand out in the region as being far more progressive than their neighbours on politics (democratic-ish system), religion (official protection of religious minorities including iraqi christians) and women’s rights (although some progress still needs to be done on that front, Kurdish women are miles better off than others in the region and have control of several armed and non-armed organizations). These attributes and the fact that the Kurds are a hardy people with decades of experience in modern guerrilla warfare made them perfect allies for the US to stabilise the region in northern Syria. In fact the partnership was so beneficial that the US Department of Defense (DOD) spent over 252 million USD arming local militia in Syria (including Kurdish forces) and requested approval from congress for an additional 300 million USD for the year 2020 just a few months ago in march 2019 (DOD Justification for Y2020 budget to counter the islamic state of Iraq and Syria, page 17, funding local militias and then throwing them to the wolves has always worked out in modern US history…).

In order to maintain peace between the Kurds and Turkish forces, who were preoccupied the Syrian Kurds would unite with the Turkish Kurds to request autonomy, a “buffer region” was occupied by US troops to block any potential conflicts. However, last Sunday (October 6, 2019), president Trump decided during a phone call with Turkish President Erdoğan to withdraw all U.S troops from the region prompting even Fox News to report Trump went “off-script”. Trump later doubled down on his decision and justified it by saying that after all… the Kurds “did not help [the U.S] win the second world war, they did not help with Normandy.” (Yes Normandy as in, Northern France over 75 years ago).

Given Trump’s complete disregard for the DOD’s strategy and U.S allies, I would like to share an excerpt taken from the letter ex US Marines General and Supreme commander of NATO, Jim Mattis, sent him on December 20 2018. In the letter Mattis mentioned the importance of alliances and announced his resignation from his position as Secretary of Defense of the United States:

“One core belief I have always held is that our strength as a nation is inextricably linked to the strength of our unique and comprehensive system of alliances and partnerships. While the U.S remains the indispensable nation of the free world, we cannot protect our interests or serve that role effectively without maintaining strong alliances and showing respect to those allies. […] Similarly, I believe we must be resolute and unambiguous in our approach to those countries whose strategic interests are increasingly in tension with ours. It is clear that China, and Russia, for example, want to shape a world consistent with their authoritarian model […] to promote their own interests at the expense of their neighbors, America and our allies. […] My views on treating our allies with respect and also being clear-eyed about both malign actors and strategic competitors are strongly held and informed over four decades of immersion in these issues. We must do everything possible to advance an international order that is most conducive to our security, prosperity and values, and we are strengthened in this effort by the solidarity of our alliances. Because you have the right to have a Secretary of Defense whose views are better aligned with yours on these subjects, I believe it is right for me to step down from my position. […]”

It does not take a genius to look at Turkey’s behaviour in recent times, the way they treat their press and the borderline dictatorship state structure they have to understand Jim Mattis’s point on malign actors also applies to them. In fact mere days after Trump announced the withdrawal of US troops from the buffer zone, Turkish military forces crossed the Northern Syrian border and launched a large scale offensive on Kurdish Military forces causing hundreds of casualties and thousands of civilians fleeing the region.

Conflict is likely to escalate even further over the next few days/weeks and one has to wonder, who will the U.S funded Kurd fighters turn to for help if the Turkish army keeps pushing on and they are left with their backs against the wall? Syria’s government and military forces are in no state to interveene (they also despise the Kurds…), Iraq is in shambles too following nearly two decades of conflict… that leaves only Iran with whom the Kurds are in conflict since 1918. There is no good outcome from this for the Kurdish people and their only realistic options for help is the U.N. stepping in or pressure from the international community forcing Turkey to back off.

No matter what happens now, the damage is already done and this incident deals a heavy blow to U.S credibility and soft power. The Trump presidency has already begun to erode the world’s trust towards the U.S on economic matters because of his tendency to make rash decisions and force the hands of partners. The only way to maintain a good business relationship is if both parties feel like they are getting something good out of it and Trump’s “America first” policy is starting to cause damage and sour relationships, complicating world trade.

Abandoning military allies for no particular reasons is sure to raise plenty of concerns amongst nations who previously counted mostly on their alliance with the U.S to ensure their security. In the coming months we are sure to see treaties and alliances shift and be re-negociated as some of the world’s nations start to wonder “what if they would ditch us?”. The U.S’s will not lose position as foremost nation overnight but as Mattis said, the prosperity of the U.S and the free world rests on strong partnerships and spreading democratic values throughout the world. No matter how good of a businessman you are some of these partnerships can’t be bought with money, and you cannot evaluate the value of some relationships solely based on how much they cost you.

We are currently at a turning point in modern history. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union the U.S have been touted as “the leaders of the free world” and have attempted to be an example of what a free nation where everyone has a fair chance to succeed could achieve. Yet recently modern Neoliberalism has taken hold of U.S politics and private interests hold so much sway some go as far as saying the U.S is falling prey to “inverted totalitarianism” (Democracy inc., Sheldon S. Wolin, 2008, Princeton University Press): a democratic system where corporate interests have slowly taken hold of all branches of power. President Trump is a symptom of a much deeper problem in the western world where we grew up being taught to maximize profits and what is good for ourselves individually. Currently, the point is moot on wether or not he should be impeached and that is not in my field of expertise but, Trump being forced to step down before the end of his tenure may serve as a kind of “apology to the world”, a statement proving what he said and did along with his administration over the last few years is not representative of the American people. A fresh start may be what the U.S needs to retake their place as “moral leaders” on the global scene. Then again, the American people may end up deciding all that matters to them is economic prosperity but I’m afraid if they attempt to compete solely on that front, 1.38 billion people may have something to say about it…