New census estimates show losses downstate that began in 2017

New York City declines are the result of a drop in the number of legal immigrants

Current trends suggest that state will further lose ground to Texas, Florida and California by 2020

Upstate, deaths are outpacing births as population ages and birth rates decline

More state residents are saying "I Leave NY," though Ontario, Monroe and Tompkins are among the few upstate New York counties showing signs of slight growth.

Statewide, the number of people calling New York home dropped by 48,500 to 19.5 million in 2018 compared to the year before, according to newly released U.S. Census Bureau population estimates. that's a one-year decline of 0.25 percent. The nation witnessed 0.6% population growth.

"Nine states lost population, New York being one of them," said Jan Vink of the Cornell University Program on Applied Demographics.

Ontario County, one of the most consistent growth area in this part of the state, did add about 250 residents from 2017 to 2018, according to the census bureau estimates.

Tompkins County grew by about 100 and Monroe had a net gain of about 40 residents. Erie and Onondaga also added population in that one-year period. Twelve other New York counties, all in the eastern part of the state, show population increases as well.

The percentages gains were tiny, much less than 1 percent. But they nonetheless were positive signs amid a sea of negativity.

All 45 other New York counties lost population last year, and the losses, which have previously been concentrated in upstate, have spread to New York City, Long Island and the Lower Hudson Valley.

The new census estimates show Queens, Brooklyn, Bronx, Suffolk and Westchester counties lost population between July 2017 and July 2018, continuing losses that began in most cases in 2017.

Even Manhattan showed a slight decline last year. Richmond County, home of Staten Island, showed a small gain.

The New York City declines are due primarily to a noticeable drop in the number of immigrants from overseas since the advent of the Trump administration and very large increases in the number of borough residents moving to other counties within New York or in other states.

"In New York City and surrounding areas, domestic migration has changed from positive to negative," Vink said.

Impacting the year-over-year comparisons, particularly downstate, was a Census Bureau change in methodology in estimating the change in net international migration.

"Foreign (legal) immigration has been propping up the state population," said E.J. McMahon from the conservative leaning Empire Center for Public Policy.

The backslide continues a three year string of statewide population declines. Still, since the 2010 Census, New York's population has grown by 0.85%, 164,000, to 19.5 million, as estimated by the Census in July 2018.

"Since the most recent census, New York state gained 164,085 residents, a growth of 0.8%. This growth percentage is far behind the national growth of 6.0% since 2010," Vink observed in a report examining the estimates.

In upstate, deaths are outpacing births, a result of an aging population and a declining birth rate, Vink observed.

Current trends bode ill for New York in the upcoming 2020 Census, Vink said, with the state expected to lose ground to Texas, Florida and California, among others.

In 2014, Florida surpassed New York for third in total population.

Cuomo blames Trump for NY troubles

New York's population stagnation and its decline in many parts of the state has been an issue for Gov. Andrew Cuomo to contend with, and a point of criticism from Republicans, including President Donald Trump.

In February, Trump told reporters at the White House that he loves upstate New Yorkers, but said, "They’ve been treated very badly."

The president continued: "If New York isn’t gonna treat them better, I would recommend they go to another state where they can get a great job."

Cuomo has cast blame on potential future population losses on Trump's policies, particularly on the president's federal tax reforms in 2017 that limits income-tax deductions on state and local taxes to $10,000 a year.

The Democratic governor said he fears the deduction cap could mean wealthy people may choose to move to lower-tax states. New York and other states with high taxes, like New Jersey and Connecticut, are suing the federal government over the so-called SALT cap.

Cuomo said last month that New York's population has slightly increased since he took office in 2011. Data shows that's mainly because of new births and immigration; meanwhile, about 1 million moved to other states over the past decade.

Trump "would like to see people leave New York. I believe that," Cuomo said March 13 during a speech in Peekskill, Westchester County.

"They passed a federal tax reform bill two years ago, all the attention was on the tax cut for the rich corporations and the richer Americans. But down in that tax code there was a little provision, that said we're going to eliminate the deduction of state and local taxes."

More:New York faces a shortfall of $2.3B in tax revenue and blames Washington

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The impact of population declines

New York's struggles with its population has been seen in various ways.

For one, New York may lose as many as two congressional seats in next reapportionment in 2022, potentially dropping it from 27 members to 25 members.

"It is expected that New York will lose one more representative in the House," Vink said.

Further, McMahon said upstate population losses could further shift the influence of both houses of the state legislature downstate when districts are reapportioned following the 2022 full Census.

New York'spublic colleges, mainly its community colleges, have also dealt with a declining enrollment fueled by the state's regional population declines.

Also, student enrollment in its public schools have continued to fall. The 2.6 million students is the lowest level in nearly 30 years, according to the Empire Center.

More:Trump to 'upper' New Yorkers: Pack your bags!

More:New York's job growth: A tale of two states

Southern Tier particularly weak

Some areas are suffering far worse than others.

Southern Tier counties such as Broome, Tioga, Chenango, Allegheny and Chemung continued their years long population slide.

Here's some examples:

Broome, for example, lost, 25 people a week, on average between 2017 and 2018, extending a more than eight-year string of weakening population numbers.

In the Adirondacks too counties encountered out migration.

The state's least densely populated county, Hamilton, lost 1%, 47 residents over the period, to drop to 4,434 in an area 50 percent larger than Rhode Island.

Since 2010, Hamilton County lost one of every 12 residents. Delaware County, largely located within the Catskills, saw one of every 14 residents flee.

On the other extreme, Saratoga County is added 20 residents each week, on average, from 2017 to 2018.

Numbers in Monroe County were flat at 742,000 over the year, but still 1,900 fewer than the number recorded in the 2010 Census, a 0.25 % decline.

were flat at 742,000 over the year, but still 1,900 fewer than the number recorded in the 2010 Census, a 0.25 % decline. Watertown-Fort Drum had the dubious distinction of ranking among the top five metro areas with the worst population declines on the nation, 1.2%.

For the second consecutive year, Westchester County recorded a population loss of 1,700 to 967,600 on top of a 1,300 decline in the from 2016 to 2017.

The two year decline was not enough to offset the Westchester population gains recorded from 2010 to 2016 as the county readies to exit the decade with a total population increase over the past eight years of 18,500.

It was a mixed bag for the balance of the lower Hudson Valley counties with Rockland, Dutchess and Orange reporting gains, and Putnam and Ulster recording slight losses.

More:New York's job growth: A tale of two states

More:Is New York's population decline impacting college enrollment? SUNY says yes

Upstate numbers weak

From 2010 to 2018, 46 of New York's 62 counties, virtually all in upstate, reported population declines.

The numbers were largely unchanged in the year-over-year comparison, with 45 counties seeing population losses, but the mix included a larger percentage of downstate counties.

While nationally 44% of the nation's counties lost population between 2017 and 2018, 73 percent of New York's counties slipped.

Pockets of strength exist in New York, but they are few:

Saratoga County , for instance, added more than 10,500 people, a 4.8% increase, since 2010, to 230,000.

, for instance, added more than 10,500 people, a 4.8% increase, since 2010, to 230,000. Orange County is showing some resilience in recent years, leading New York in population gains from 2017 to 2018, up 2,100 or 0.6% to 382,000.

Four of the fastest growing counties on percentage basis were in Texas and three were in Florida, based on the Census Bureau estimates.

Sean Lahman of the USA Today Network contributed to this report.

Contains reporting by Steve Orr.

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