Bill Glauber

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

The good news for Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson is he's running ahead of GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump in Wisconsin.

The bad news for Johnson is that he still trails Democrat Russ Feingold, according to Wednesday's Marquette University Law School Poll.

Feingold led Johnson 49% to 43% among registered voters surveyed, with his lead expanding to 53% to 42% among likely voters. A month ago, Feingold held a 7-point advantage among registered voters and a 5-point lead among likely voters.

But compared to the presidential race — where Republican Donald Trump trails Democrat Hillary Clinton by 10 points among registered voters and 15 points among likely voters — Johnson is holding his own.

Graphic:Sizing up the Senate race.

"The Johnson campaign should be happy that they're outperforming the presidential candidate," said poll director Charles Franklin. "On the other hand, outperforming someone who is doing as poorly as Trump is doing right now is a real disadvantage to the campaign.

"So I think the question is, as we get into the fall and as folks come home from vacations, do they tune into the Senate race in a way that they have not yet."

Franklin said the most important thing about the presidential race in its effect on the Senate race is how it drives voter turnout. With Wisconsin being a high turnout state, even marginal shifts in turnout among Republicans and Democrats can sway the final results of down-ballot races.

"What we're seeing right now is Republican and Democratic turnout levels are similar with just a small edge to the Democrats," Franklin said. "But can the presidential race turn that around? The other thing is if a party is not highly motivated for its presidential candidate, if voters don't turn out for that candidate they also don't turn out for people down the ballot."

One silver lining in the poll for Johnson is he leads Feingold among independents by 44% to 42%. Ninety-two percent of Democrats say they'll vote for Feingold and 87% of Republicans back Johnson.

In a three-way race that includes Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson, Feingold had 47%, Johnson 38% and Anderson 7% among registered voters. Among likely voters, Feingold had 50%, Johnson 39% and Anderson 7%.

Johnson and Feingold remain right side-up in voter approval. But Johnson continues to be nagged by a lack of name recognition, with 31% not having heard enough about the first-term senator to have an opinion. Thirty-four percent had a favorable view of Johnson and 32% had an unfavorable view.

Feingold had a 44% favorable rating, 36% unfavorable rating, with 18% unable to give an opinion about the former three-term senator.

The Feingold and Johnson campaigns said they both saw good news in the poll.

Michael Tyler, a Feingold spokesman, said the poll "is a reminder of the clear choice Wisconsinites face between Russ, who is focused on fighting for the middle class and working families of this state, and Senator Johnson who continues to ignore Wisconsinites in favor of corporate interests and the billionaires backing his re-election bid."

Brian Reisinger, a Johnson spokesman, said: "Not much has changed, but what's clear is Ron Johnson is an outsider running his own race. As Wisconsinites tune into this campaign, they'll remember Senator Feingold is a career politician who doesn't know the first thing about creating jobs or keeping us safe — and after 34 years, they'll fire him again."

Gov. Scott Walker continued to be bogged down with a poor job approval rating, a problem he has faced ever since his failed run for president. Walker's job approval remains stuck at 38%, with 59% disapproving.

Voters are split on the state of the state. Forty-five percent of those polled said the state is headed in the right direction and 51% said it was on the wrong track. Thirty percent said the state budget is in better shape than it was a few years ago, 36% said it was in worse shape and 28% said it was about the same.

Asked what should be done to fund transportation, where there's a projected $939 million shortfall in next year's budget, 43% said they would prefer to increase revenue from increasing gas taxes or registration fees to maintain current projects. Another 33% would cut projects to avoid tax increases and just 12% support borrowing more to maintain the current projects.

A solid majority of Republicans, 55%, would support cutting projects, with only 25% in support of increasing revenue. Fifty-nine percent of Democrats prefer increasing revenue, with only 18% preferring to cut projects.

The poll of 805 registered Wisconsin voters was conducted Thursday through Sunday. The full sample had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6%. The sample for the 683 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.0%.

Of those surveyed, 44% identified as Republicans and 47% as Democrats. Those figures included so-called "leaners," those who normally call themselves independents and lean toward a party.