Alright, so you didn’t win the Mega Millions. Despite pooling money with your officemates, family members, or that one person on Twitter who says to follow them to get a piece of their potential winnings, you still had to work the next day. By the way, how annoying are those people?

Well, maybe you can still win your fantasy football league. No matter your situation (unless you are 0-7 and have no notable players), there’s a way into the glory. So, keep your head up! And if you are 0-7 and still caring, bully for you!

With some interesting teams on bye this week, it’s important to check out the defensive streaming options. With six more teams on bye in Week 9, it may be more important to look at your streaming option’s matchup for next week. SIX TEAMS ON BYE. Why, NFL, why?

Week 8 is here – time to dominate!

2018 Fantasy Football Week 8 Defense Stream-O-Matic

Scoring

I use a traditional rotisserie scoring style commonly used in fantasy baseball season-long leagues to give point totals to each team.

Categories

The categories for the chart are listed below along with links to websites that I use to find this data.

Own% : Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues gives us an idea of who is available. This doesn’t factor into the standings.

: Ownership percentages based on ESPN leagues gives us an idea of who is available. This doesn’t factor into the standings. Location : Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, a five-point advantage is given to all home teams.

: Generally speaking, defenses play better at home than on the road. Thus, a five-point advantage is given to all home teams. Wind : The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. Another five-point bonus is awarded to teams playing in such windy conditions.

: The only weather element that has shown a direct correlation with point totals is winds in excess of 15 MPH. Another five-point bonus is awarded to teams playing in such windy conditions. Vegas : Using Vegas odds, the spread and over/under generates a projected game score that the bettors go against. This game score portrays what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed.

: Using Vegas odds, the spread and over/under generates a projected game score that the bettors go against. This game score portrays what the game flow could look like and, therefore, which fantasy football defenses are in a good position to succeed. oSAC% : To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but some quarterbacks don’t show the ability to avoid the sack.

: To gauge how good (or bad) an opposing offensive line might be, look at the sack percentage for that team’s offense. Not only are some offensive lines bad, but some quarterbacks don’t show the ability to avoid the sack. oINT% : The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. Turnover percentage is not used here because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions.

: The opponent’s interception percentage obviously helps in streaming a defense. Turnover percentage is not used here because fumbles can be a little fluky and turnover percentage uses both fumbles and interceptions. FPPG : I use ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses.

: I use ESPN defensive scoring rankings to determine a ranking of the fantasy football defenses. DVOA: Probably the most popular tool for evaluating defenses, the DVOA efficiency ratings are utilized to give a strong baseline to the rankings.

Stream-O-Matic Chart

Overall Defense Own% Opp Location Wind Vegas oSAC% oINT% FPPG DVOA 139.0 Bears 92.4 NYJ 5 0 26 18 26 32 32 128.0 Texans 91.1 MIA 5 0 27 17 21 30 28 118.5 Cardinals 45.1 SF 5 0 20.5 27 25 19 22 111.0 Patriots 68.9 BUF 0 0 28 28 28 12 15 103.0 Steelers 24.0 CLE 5 0 22 25 14 23 14 99.0 Ravens 88.3 CAR 0 0 24 8 8 29 30 97.0 Rams 99.0 GB 5 0 14 21 3 31 23 89.0 Colts 46.6 OAK 0 0 13 19 22 16 19 89.0 Jets 30.8 CHI 0 0 7 14 17 27 24 87.0 Redskins 27.9 NYG 0 0 23 22 7 24 11 87.0 Seahawks 17.1 DET 0 0 8 7 15 28 29 86.0 Eagles 92.7 JAX 0 0 25 13 20 8 20 82.0 Dolphins 22.4 HOU 0 0 9 24 18 13 18 80.0 Chiefs 9.5 DEN 5 0 18 16 23 11 7 79.5 49ers 1.9 ARZ 0 0 20.5 23 24 2 10 79.0 Jaguars 95.5 PHI 0 0 17 20 2 14 26 73.5 Bills 24.6 NE 5 0 4 4 16 17.5 27 71.0 Lions 8.6 SEA 5 0 15 26 12 10 3 71.0 Browns 32.0 PIT 0 0 5 3 11 21 31 68.0 Bengals 5.1 TB 5 0 12 11 27 7 6 66.0 Panthers 46.9 BAL 5 0 16 6 6 20 13 64.5 Vikings 88.3 NO 5 0 10.5 5 1 26 17 62.0 Broncos 46.3 KC 0 0 2 1 9 25 25 54.0 Giants 0.9 WAS 5 0 19 15 5 5 5 52.0 Packers 23.6 LAR 0 0 1 10 10 22 9 40.5 Saints 15.5 MIN 0 0 10.5 12 4 6 8 38.5 Cowboys 19.1 BYE -- -- -- -- -- 17.5 21 36.0 Buccaneers 2.1 CIN 0 0 3 9 19 4 1 33.0 Raiders 0.8 IND 5 0 6 2 13 3 4 27.0 Titans 35.1 BYE -- -- -- -- -- 15 12 25.0 Chargers 66.0 BYE -- -- -- -- -- 9 16 3.0 Falcons 6.5 BYE -- -- -- -- -- 1 2

Defenses on Bye Week: Chargers, Cowboys, Falcons, Titans

Snooze-a-palooza of the Week

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I would rather watch a short film with a bear fighting off a jet than watch this matchup between the Bears and Jets. Maybe something similar to King Kong?

Jokes aside, this game should be pretty low-scoring. As a 7-point favorite in a 45.5-point over/under, the Bears defense should be a locked-and-loaded play this week in the fantasy football world. The Stream-O-Matic agrees, ranking them 1st by a wide margin. However, what do you do with the Jets, who rank 9th on the Stream-O-Matic chart?

I’m personally staying far, far away from them. They’ve competed admirably the last few weeks, but the game flow is just not going to work in their favor here. The Bears are an efficient offense and, while Mitch Trubisky still has his bonehead plays, he’s been great through the air and on the ground. That last part is key because, if the Bears were to get up early, this could really turn into a snoozefest. Without an opportunity for turnovers, the Jets are going to be hard to stream.

Barn-Lighting Scoreboard-Burner

Umm, so nothing of note happened last time the Saints and Vikings played, right?

Both of these teams have had disappointing defenses relative to their 2017 seasons. The Vikings have been better recently, but they have beat up on some bad teams. None of them provide the offensive output and diversity that the Saints have. The Vikings defense is very mediocre according to DVOA, which takes into account the opposing offenses.

Meanwhile, New Orleans just made a move to acquire Eli Apple for their secondary. Look, I’m an Apple-believer and all, but considering how amazing this secondary was last year, it’s crazy to think that they need the help that bad. But, here we are in Week 8 of 2018. Do I think they can get back to their 2017 selves? Sure – the return of Mark Ingram as a potential clock-drainer will help and Apple will be a nice outside corner. However, the task this week is too tall with MVP candidate Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs running routes.

You weren’t playing either of these defenses already. I believe it passes the 52-point over/under. That’s going to bode well for all of your DFS lineups with players from these squads.

Notables

Arizona Cardinals, DST3 (45.1%)

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Okay, the Stream-O-Matic and I were wrong on the Arizona defense last week. The Broncos offense actually showed up in a big way on Thursday night of Week 7 and I got burned.

Well, I’m right back at it this week. They are at home against the 49ers, who have turned the ball over 14 times in their last four games (with CJ Beathard starting). One of those games was against these Cardinals, who forced five turnovers and scored a touchdown. This 49ers offense is much worse than even the Broncos can provide. Plus, if you want to retrieve any positivity from that TNF game, at least Arizona got to rest for a few extra days!





Even with the Patrick Peterson trade chatter, I’m rolling out the Cardinals defense as a top 10 play at the minimum. Forget their last performance – it’s a new week!

Pittsburgh Steelers, DST5 (24.0%)

I have a strange feeling about this stream. The Steelers are in the bottom half of the DVOA ratings. With my general rule of thumb to never play below average defenses, this is a red flag. It always makes me uneasy.

So, let’s see just how bad their opponent, the Browns, have been. The Browns offense ranks 30th in offense DVOA ratings for 2018 – good start. Dissecting this to just starts with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, we find some more encouraging news for the Steelers defense in Week 8. Since Mayfield has started games, opposing defenses have averaged 9.1 PPG against the Browns. Included are defenses like the Buccaneers and Raiders. Yikes.

So, maybe my worry is misguided. You should be rolling out the Steelers as a comfortable, high-floor fantasy defense for Week 8. Carry on!

Indianapolis Colts, DST8 (46.6%)

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Sweet mother of pearl, are we playing the Colts defense in consecutive weeks? What is this season of fantasy football?

The Colts defense took care of business last week against the Bills putrid offense, but it was better than expected. They forced five turnovers and only allowed three points. Now, no other offense is quite as offensive as the Bills, but that’s a fantastic outing. Looking at some of the other defenses who failed to do this well impresses me too – Texans, Vikings, and Ravens.

This week, the Colts go on the road to face the Raiders. Now, the Raiders have been trading away talent and blatantly attempting to get a high draft pick. Other than that overtime game against the Browns, Oakland has scored 20 points or less in every game and it’s been getting worse. They are one of seven teams that are in the bottom half of both percentages of sacks allowed and interceptions thrown.

The matchup is juicy, the Colts defense has played well, and you should feel confident in them for Week 8.

Washington Redskins, DST10 (27.9%)

Speaking of teams that are tanking for a high draft pick, the Giants are shedding that salary. If you thought a 1-6 team couldn’t get worse, try replacing Eli Apple and Damon Harrison on defense now. I know these guys don’t affect the offense directly, but making the team worse as a whole will give opposing defenses the chance to capitalize on a one-dimensional offense.

Enter the Washington Redskins, who are turning into an Alex Smith-led team. What I mean by that – it seems like teams led by Smith always have a good defense behind them. He doesn’t turn the ball over and typically can sustain long drives. That bodes well for the defense. In this game, the flow is going to be so heavily in favor of the Redskins that it’s not going to be funny. Like, how the hell are the Redskins only a one-point favorite? Am I crazy? I mean, yes, but not in this case.

I love the Washington defense this week despite their 11th worse DVOA defense rating. The Giants are going to be an offense I’m targeting from here on out for the Eli sacks and lack of team competency.

Early Top 10 for Week 9

To prepare ourselves for the bye-pocalypse, let’s look at the early Stream-O-Matic rankings for Week 9! We won’t have Vegas odds to help us out here, but it’s still fun to get an unofficial first look.

Bears (at BUF) Texans (at DEN) Broncos (vs. HOU) Jets (at MIA) Cowboys (vs. TEN) Bills (vs. CHI) Ravens (vs. PIT) Dolphins (vs. NYJ) Seahawks (vs. LAC) Panthers (vs. TB)

Next week’s options already look terrible. With teams like the Cardinals, Giants, and Jaguars on bye, it’s going to be tough sledding. I personally wouldn’t burn an extra bench spot for any of these streaming options. Just suck it up and take the Week 9 bye week as it comes unless the Bears or Texans are floating around on waivers somehow.

Well, that was an exercise in futility. But alas, we shall try it again next week!

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