This is the most exciting World Cup ever (so far!)

This has been an exciting World Cup so far. How exciting?

The most exciting, if you go by the most goals scored per game and the least number of ties.

After the first round of group play – in other words, after each team has played one and only one game* – we compare the number of goals per game compared to previous World Cups where each team had played one and only one game. We use data back to 1970 for comparability purposes, even though the sample size is small.

If you prefer charts to graphs:

So far 2014 is the most goals per game in modern history. Two quick points:

1. At this point, World Cup 2010 in South Africa had the least number of goals. So we went from the least amount of goals (“most boring”) in 2010 to the “most exciting” in 2014. 2. There two closest World Cups – 2002 and 1982 – both had big outliers. In 2002, Germany destroyed Saudi Arabia 8-0. Likewise, in 1982, Hungary scored 10 (!) against El Salvador. Usually lots of goals by one team means it isn’t an exciting game, plus it throws off our numbers as a gauge of how exciting a game is. So if we trimmed the excess goals, then World Cup 2014 would be even more of an outlier in terms of more goals scored per game at this point in time.

But what about ties? We know the games aren’t blowouts, but if they were all high scoring ties, then that would probably be considered a mundane World Cup.

So far, World Cup 2014 is tied with 1970 for least likely to have games end in a tie! In 1970, there was just 1 tie, but there were half the number of games, so the percentage is the same.

In 2010, there were lots of ties AND few goals at this point in time. The number of ties later regressed very close to the overall mean. While the number of goals per game stayed abnormally low through group play, when 2010 reached knockout play, the goals per game were actually a bit above the mean.

So far, this has been a very exciting World Cup. Here’s to more great games!

* By definition, these numbers do not include the Brazil vs Mexico 0-0 tie, since it was the second game for both teams. These numbers are all apple-to-apple comparisons: first round in group play for every World Cup, teams played its second game.