Aug 28, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles left fielder Nelson Cruz (23) doubles in the seventh inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles defeated the Rays 5-4. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

I would not doubt that many Baltimore Orioles fans would undoubtedly say that Nelson Cruz has indeed carried the O’s to the success that they enjoy at this point of the season with a 9.5-game lead in the AL East with only 20 games remaining. There are Birds fans who believe he is obviously also the MVP of the American League.

Do the numbers support the contention that Nelson Cruz has carried the 2014 Orioles? Well … yes, and no.

There is no doubt that he carried them to victory on Sunday afternoon against the Tampa Bay Rays. Going 4-for-5 with a pair of two-run homers and a bases-clearing triple in the top of the ninth inning, he accounted for all seven RBIs in the Orioles’ 7-5 win in 11 innings. A player can’t be much more valuable than keeping his team in the game, sending it to extra innings, and then winning it in the 11th with a monster home run.

However, his times of slumping this season have been as deep and long as some of his home runs. But it is true that even in his down times for production over the summer, some of his home runs were hit at critical moments.

But to illustrate the inconsistencies of his season, consider the following chart …

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For the summer months of June, July, and August – 80 games played – Cruz had a batting average of .214; but in April, May, and September combined it is .335. The team record for the Baltimore Orioles in the three summer months when Cruz was NOT hitting was 52-29, and in the first two months and this first week of September when Cruz has allegedly “carried the Orioles” the team record is only 31-30.

These numbers are a bit startling. In the one-half of the season (exactly 81 summer games) when the Orioles were winning on a pace for 104 victories, Nelson Cruz hit .214 with 15 home runs and 37 RBIs. So, the answer to the primary question would logically be “NO” … he did not carry the team at all. They won 52 games in spite of him.

However, what would have happened to the Orioles in the 61 other games before and after the three summer months if Cruz did not hit .335 with 24 home runs and 64 RBIs in them? They certainly would not have been 31-30, and likely the O’s would have been far enough worse to not have any lead whatsoever in the AL East. So, did Nelson Cruz carry the Orioles? Well, you could argue that “YES” he certainly has.

And all of this raises the question of 2015 and beyond. There is no doubt that Cruz likes playing for Buck Showalter and with the Baltimore Orioles. He is certainly going to command more money than his $8 million bargain price this year. But the inconsistencies delineated above would give significant pause to any sort of all-out crazy deal, calculating his age as well. People have suggested that $15 million per year for three years would be reasonable and workable, even for the Orioles.

Certainly none of us will object if he wants to go on a total tear again for the next five weeks and truly carry the Orioles through a victorious orange October!