The first two weeks of the NFL season have provided the usual unexpected and wild finishes. We’ve seen a number of upsets, close calls, and blowout wins so far as teams try to find their rhythm after limited training camps and no preseason.

There are tons of results and trends to sort through after a wild week, and in an effort to keep you updated throughout the 2020-21 season, TheLines is providing weekly updates to our Power Rankings.

The futures landscape is constantly changing and the Chiefs are tied with Ravens as Super Bowl favorites with +500 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The Power Rankings below look beyond futures odds and predict the actual potential of each team on a weekly basis, thus helping fans think ahead when playing seasonal, Daily Fantasy Football, or placing bets at sportsbooks.

Here are Nate Weitzer‘s Week 3 NFL Power Rankings.

ALSO READ: NFL Week 3 odds and lines comparisons at US Sportsbooks

2020 NFL Power Rankings: Week 3

# Team Chg Rcrd 1 BAL Ravens Baltimore’s defense is making opponents one-dimensional and Lamar Jackson leads an offense that has seemed unstoppable during the regular season. The reigning MVP has tossed 6 TDs without an interception and is sporting a nearly perfect passer rating through two wins. 1 0 - 0 - 0 2 KC Chiefs Patrick Mahomes provided another magical comeback and Harrison Butker hit a clutch 58-yard FG to save the Chiefs from a shocking loss to Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Perhaps that will scare KC into focus as they look to shake off the Super Bowl hangover. 1 0 - 0 - 0 3 SF 49ers They certainly bounced back with a resounding win against the weak Jets, but the Niners are now dealing with injuries to several key players including Jimmy Garropolo (ankle), George Kittle (knee), Raheem Mostert (knee), Richard Sherman (calf), Deebo Samuel (foot), and Nick Bosa (knee), who is likely done for the season. 0 - 0 - 0 4 SEA Seahawks Hopefully you read our rankings and placed some action on Russell Wilson to win MVP when his odds sat at +600 prior to Sunday’s spectacular performance against the Patriots stellar secondary. His athleticism, accuracy, and Football IQ are a lethal combination. 1 0 - 0 - 0 5 NO Saints Playing without Michael Thomas (ankle), the Saints essentially imploded in Las Vegas on MNF, committing 10 penalties in a poor defensive effort while Drew Brees struggled in a second straight start to open the season. Still, Sean Payton’s club will be fine. 2 0 - 0 - 0 6 BUF Bills Josh Allen set new career highs with 417 passing yards and four TDs in what turned into a narrow win at Miami. The breakout candidate is 57-for-81 passing with a 125.8 rating through two starts and Stefon Diggs (16-239-1TD) looks well worth the trade investment. 0 - 0 - 0 7 DAL Cowboys After a disastrous start and sleepy middle to Sunday’s home opener, the Cowboys found a way to pull out an unlikely win against the poor Falcons. Stud LT Tyron Smith (neck) should be back soon, but RT La’El Collins (hip), LB Leighton Vander Esch (collarbone), and CB Anthony Brown (rib) are on IR and the Cowboys secondary has been shredded so far. 0 - 0 - 0 8 GB Packers The NFC North is ripe for the taking with Minnesota and Detroit showing little promise in either of their first two games. Green Bay took care of business with Aaron Rodgers producing 85 points in two division wins, yet their defense still looks shaky. 1 0 - 0 - 0 9 NE Patriots There are new faces throughout the Patriots defense, but Bill Belichick still has that unit playing at a high level, even if they couldn’t solve Wilson. Cam Newton can make the Pats one of the most consistent offensive teams in the red zone. 2 0 - 0 - 0 10 TEN Titans Derrick Henry has been stopped in the backfield consistently over the Titans first two games and it’s fair to wonder how motivated he’ll be while playing under the franchise tag. Tennessee’s usually impressive defense has turned in some poor quarters of play. 2 0 - 0 - 0 11 PIT Steelers James Conner was able to rumble for 106 yards on a short week and Ben Roethlisberger continued to showcase his powerful arm with 311 passing yards and 2 TDs against a good Broncos defense. Pittsburgh has one of the best defenses in the NFL and now has a multi-faceted offense. 1 0 - 0 - 0 12 LAR Rams Despite losing Cam Akers (ribs) and Malcolm Brown (finger) mid-game, the Rams’ offensive line bullied an NFC East side for a second straight week and allowed Jared Goff to complete his first 13 pass attempts en route to a 37-19 win at Philadelphia. 1 0 - 0 - 0 13 TB Buccaneers The Bucs responded to their Week 1 loss with a strong start and found success running against Carolina’s soft defense. Yet their 31-17 win was actually much closer than it appears on paper, as their secondary started showing familiar flaws while yielding two 100-yard receiving days. 3 0 - 0 - 0 14 IND Colts After giving up a monster passing line to Gardner Minshew, the Colts defense held Kirk Cousins to 113 yards with three picks and a 15.9 passer rating in a blowout win. 3 0 - 0 - 0 15 ARI Cardinals Granted their second bout came against Washington’s feeble offense, but the Cardinals defense looks dramatically improved and Kyler Murray is quite clearly a dual threat with superstar potential. 1 0 - 0 - 0 16 HOU Texans Facing the top two teams in our Power Rankings to open the season left Deshaun Watson with little margin for error, and he no longer has running-mate DeAndre Hopkins to try and crack those elite defenses. 1 0 - 0 - 0 17 ATL Falcons We’re actually moving the Falcons up a spot despite their late collapse in Dallas. Atlanta’s defense has been serviceable against two of the best offenses out there and Matt Ryan is dropping dimes to his dangerous receiving corps. 1 0 - 0 - 0 18 LV Raiders Even with two offensive lineman going down with injuries, the Raiders bullied a stout Saints run defense and sprung Darren Waller for a huge night in their home opener. Maybe Jon Gruden had a long-term plan in mind when he arrived and unloaded Khalil Mack. 4 0 - 0 - 0 19 MIN Vikings This team is built to play from ahead and run the ball to victory. Yet if the Vikings defense can’t stop anybody, Kirk Cousins will be forced into more bad scripts and could make more costly mistakes. 5 0 - 0 - 0 20 CLE Browns They were all smiles while running over the toothless Bengals defense on Thursday night, and the Browns might gain a little more confidence by beating Washington next week. Then this team could unravel during a brutal 3-game stretch against the Cowboys, Colts, and Steelers. 1 0 - 0 - 0 21 LAC Chargers Galvanized by a strong debut from Justin Herbert, the Chargers defense put the clamps on Patrick Mahomes and company through three quarters and nearly pulled off an AFC West shocker. This team will be far more dangerous if Herbert starts going forward. 5 0 - 0 - 0 22 PHI Eagles In recent seasons, the Eagles were vulnerable in certain areas, but they could always stop the run. Now run defense is another issue and protecting Carson Wentz is an even bigger problem, with Philly sporting the worst turnover margin (-5) in the NFL. 2 0 - 0 - 0 23 DEN Broncos The Broncos have battled two of the better teams in the NFL with several key players missing time. We’ll see how long they can sustain that competitive level with Courtland Sutton (knee) done for the year and Drew Lock (shoulder) out indefinitely. 2 0 - 0 - 0 24 CHI Bears The Bears are easily the most fortunate 2-0 team in the NFL, having benefited from a head-scratching collapse by the Lions and an unfortunate injury to Saquon Barkley that hamstrung the Giants offense. 0 - 0 - 0 25 JAX Jaguars Gardner Minshew deserves consideration as a Top 15 QB and the Jaguars coaching staff is doing a great job of setting him up to utilize his weapons. Jacksonville’s defense has lost a ton of talent, but has only allowed 3.8 YPC and one rushing TD to two great running teams. 4 0 - 0 - 0 26 DET Lions There simply isn’t much fight from this Lions team and it’s fair to wonder if Matt Patricia has lost the locker room. Perhaps getting Kenny Golladay (knee) back along with key secondary players will help Detroit right the ship. 1 0 - 0 - 0 27 MIA Dolphins Ryan Fitzpatrick diagnosed some weaknesses in the Bills secondary and nearly beat his old team, but Miami’s secondary couldn’t hold up. The Dolphins are yielding a league-worst 131.1 passer rating and giving up 10.6 yards per attempt, numbers that could get even worse if Byron Jones (groin) misses time. 0 - 0 - 0 28 CIN Bengals Joe Burrow is going to make fantasy owners happy if the coaching staff lets him throw 60-plus times when the Bengals experience negative game scripts. The No. 1 overall pick has the goods, yet the Bengals defense remains one of the least physical units in the game. 2 0 - 0 - 0 29 CAR Panthers Christian McCaffrey is set to miss 4-6 weeks so the Panthers will truly get to see what they have in Teddy Bridgewater. Carolina’s defense won’t be stopping anyone, so volume is ensured for Bridgewater and his receivers. 1 0 - 0 - 0 30 NYG Giants With Saquon Barkley (knee) done for the season, the Giants might struggle with their morale in the coming weeks. Daniel Jones has already taken seven sacks and committed four turnovers. 7 0 - 0 - 0 31 WAS Football Team The Football Team came back to Earth with a non-competitive loss in Arizona after shocking the Eagles in Week 1. 0 - 0 - 0 32 NYJ Jets No resistance from the Jets in their home opener against the 49ers. Former Jets players continue to shine for other franchises and Adam Gase is now left trying to get the most out of limited talent. 0 - 0 - 0

How to use NFL Power Rankings

Stay tuned for updates to our power rankings all season long! These can serve as a valuable tool for placing NFL futures bets or planning how to bet on NFL games.

Of course, you have to account for factors such as travel time, home field advantage, and injuries as the season progresses. Yet early in the season, it’s possible to go against the betting public by sticking to your own process.

Bettors tend to overreact to recent results and are very reactionary in an “update league” like the NFL. Therefore, the betting market shifts to these reactions.

If you stick with the raw data, i.e. metrics on offensive line play, a quarterback’s record at home, and turnover differential, you might be able to cash big early in the season before oddsmakers and the betting public adjust. Trust your data and stay one step ahead with a comprehensive Power Rankings system.

How to handicap NFL games

What does it mean to “handicap” a game? At first, it might seem that you’ll be running advanced metrics and spitting out numbers and point spreads. In reality, handicapping is a fancy bettor’s term for preparing and researching. There’s dozens of game factors that need to be taken into account like injuries, matchups, and metrics but also market factors like line movement and public biases.

Surface-level factors

First are the surface-level factors that can determine a game like home field advantage (though in 2020, that is severely diminished), key injuries, and the weather. For injuries, don’t just browse the fantasy football injury report– a diminished offensive line or defensive secondary can be devastating to a team’s performance. For example, the Washington Football Team was able to record eight sacks on the Eagles’ Carson Wentz and overcome a 17-point deficit and underdog odds due to three key offensive line absences for Philadelphia in Week 1 of the 2020 season.

Traditionally, the home team is given a 2- or 3-point advantage for playing in their home city in front of their home fans. Even without fans in attendance, travel takes a toll on visiting teams and has some (albeit diminished) effect on the line. Also needed for consideration is the weather: rain, wind, and snow can hurt a pass-heavy offense and cold weather might hurt warm-climate teams. Teams playing at altitude (Denver) may also have an advantage over teams that don’t frequently play at altitude (Miami).

Strength of schedule is useful when looking at futures bet. For example, the Houston Texans averaged 23.6 points per game against the 13th-toughest schedule in the NFL in 2019. In 2020, the Texans were scheduled the 8th-toughest schedule in the NFL and traded away star receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Using this information, we can determine that the Texans are likely to see a negative regression in points per game. Strength of schedules are also broken down positionally and should be taken into consideration, as well.

Deeper factors

Beyond those easily-identifiable factors are matchups, schemes, and metrics. If you aren’t a film junkie, don’t worry– there’s plenty of Twitter follows and websites that can help you break it down and make it easily understandable.

Look for size advantages in receivers and defensive backs; players like Julio Jones can make life difficult for a 5’ 8” corner and the Falcons might gameplan to exploit that advantage. Other positional advantages to keep in mind: pass rushers against inexperienced/struggling offensive tackles and athletic pass-catching tight ends against linebackers who struggle defending receivers. Schematic advantages are also worth noting. For example, seasoned vets like Josh McDaniels (Patriots offensive coordinator) or Mike Zimmer (Vikings defensive coordinator) will have an advantage against a first-year play-caller.

Advanced metrics can be telling and expose weaknesses in teams, but with thousands of metrics out there, it can be difficult to tell which are really helpful. NBC’s Warren Sharp is a great resource for finding advanced metrics that make significant differences in outcomes. A quick tab on stats worth paying attention to:

Yards per play (rather than total yards)

Expected points per drive (rather than points per game)

Air yards per attempt (rather than passing yards thrown)

3rd down conversion

These numbers will break down the efficiency and effectiveness of an offense (or defense, if you’re going with allowed) and remove the “garbage time” numbers plenty of players can pile on. Contrary to the belief that stats never lie, stats can actually be the best liars when used incorrectly.

If you’ve really got a handle on the NFL game, a popular focus recently has been on coaches’ understanding of analytics and their willingness to utilize probability factors in their gameplan. For example, failing to use analytics and probability both cost the Cowboys and Broncos opening-week wins (rushing on third and long, hoarding timeouts, settling for field goals inside the three yard line, etc.). Older coaches who’ve rejected the use of modern analytics can move lines (especially over/unders) and are worth keeping tabs on.

Market factors

Outside of the game itself, bettors should understand how lines move and react to sharp bettors and the general public. One thing to remember about public betting: they are easily and drastically influenced by recency bias and nonsequitur trends. For example, Sammy Watkins almost always comes out in Week 1 and dominates, but disappears for the rest of the year. Yet year-in and year-out, Watkins is picked up in thousands of fantasy leagues with hopes that he continues his streak. This affects statistical futures from the droves of public bettors that go and bet his over in receiving yards and moves the line up (say, from 405.5 yards to 425.5 yards).

Sharp bettors (professionals and those who prepare correctly) can take advantage of moving lines and get better odds for their wagers. Taking the Watkins example, bettors who take the under now have 20 more yards of breathing room and a higher probability of success. The same goes for good players who play a poor Week 1 (ex. Saquon Barkley). Their futures will decrease due to the public all betting under their totals, and gives sharp bettors more space to work with when betting overs.

This tactic is known as fading the public and has a long track record of success.

Power Rankings vs. Power Ratings

Everyone sees Power Rankings just about everywhere you look– SportsCenter, the Herd, just about every website– and those are useful in their own right. The concept is simple, just a 1-32 list of the best team to the worst team. Maybe it’s based on metrics, maybe it’s based on the eyeball test, maybe it’s both.

Power Ratings differ quite a bit despite sounding similar. Ratings quantify the numerical advantage one team has over another based on past scores and season performance. Ratings are drawn exclusively from quantifiable metrics (though those metrics may differ person to person) and are used to help predict future scores and outcomes, rather than saying Team X is just better than Team Y and should win.

How to build your own Power Rankings

For those looking to rank teams 1-32 based on last season, the games ongoing this season, and a looking quickly at the depth chart, you can do just that. However, it likely won’t serve as a useful tool when it comes to betting, especially against the spread; you’ll want to build (or find) a set of power ratings first. That way, you’ll have a more accurate and quantifiable justification to your rankings and remove potential biases.

To create these power ratings, begin with ranking the teams according to projected number of wins. This will give you a base to work with rather than working from scratch. Assign a number to each team, starting at the top with 16 and running down to the bottom where the last ranked team receives -16. From there, adjust the numbers– 16 through -16, with zero being the middle– based on projected point totals, defensive ranks, and personnel. If interested, look up formulas on expected point differentials to create a more pinpoint rating for each team.

Putting it together

Once you have your numbers, compare two teams (numbers in parentheses are hypothetical power ratings): Indianapolis (12) @ Los Angeles Chargers (-8).

The difference between these teams ratings, 4, is now your theoretical point spread. Add in a 2.5-point advantage for the home team (Los Angeles) for an adjusted point spread of 1.5 in favor of the Colts.

Now add in your factors (injuries, metrics, etc.) to fine-tune your spread. Derwin James is out for the season and creates a massive disadvantage for the Chargers’ defensive secondary (the numbers on this are worth looking up) and should benefit the Colts at least half a point. Your final spread for this game comes out to Colts -2 (-110) @ Chargers.

Now, take your projected spread of -2 and compare it to the Vegas lines. Say the opening line comes out to Colts -4.5 (-110) @ Chargers. That should be an easy bet, since our projected point total is -2 and we would take the Chargers to cover. The process will take some refining and new factors will emerge as the season goes on, but this is the basic process in handicapping your own NFL games.

Not only will this help you quantify point spreads and decide on feasible spreads, but it will help you dig deeper and find new metrics that create a new dimension of understanding for betting on the NFL.

2020 NFL Pre-season Power Rankings