Jonas Valanciunas has been playing above-and-beyond expectations as of late. Should we buy in?

If you've been living under a rock for the past few weeks - or consumed by the festivities of the trade deadline - you may not be aware of a developing narrative brewing in Toronto right now. No, it’s not the utter domination at the helm of the bench unit - it’s Jonas Valanciunas; the sheer phenomenal play of Jonas Valanciunas.

I plan to tackle a few vital questions in this piece; is he teasing us with his fantastic run of late? Or is this “new” Valanciunas here to stay?

His performance against Utah (and premier center, Rudy Gobert) - 28/14/2, 1 steal, 4 blocks, 12 of 16 shooting and 2 of 2 from 3, is single-handedly the best game of his career (via game score [30.0]). Despite the disappointing loss to Utah (thanks to a Rubio game-winner), JV's incredible performance is surely the key milestone in this career run over the past few weeks.

This fantastic run, however, hasn’t been without Jonas laying a couple eggs. A 0/3/1 in only 10 minutes (foul trouble) against Minnesota, and a 2/7/1 on 1 of 8 shooting against Boston.

Despite these two blunders, Jonas is posting a line of 14.5 / 9.8 / 1.9 and 57.6% shooting. Take out the two eggs and he’s putting up 17/11 on way better shooting. But take a look through the game logs of Jonas’s career. There are a handful of runs comparable to this one, and some that are arguably even better.

So what makes this 12-game stretch the most memorable one so far? I’ll sum it up with a variety of somewhat identical film:

But what about that time Drummond comically waved off a Valanciunas three and he missed?! Don’t worry, I got that. More on that later.

Since that pre-season game, Jonas has taken 39 threes in his 50 games this season, making 18 of them (46.2% from deep).

I hope you didn’t just skim over that.

39 threes. THIRTY. NINE. THREES. In 50 games? What is going on?

Let’s put this in some context. Erasing the 50 games of Jonas’ 2017-18 season, he has played in 363 games. Guess how many threes he took in those 9483 minutes from 2012-13 to 2016-17?

4 threes. Four. Threes. In 363 games? What a difference.

Don’t Let the Doubters Scare You

Here is a bad transcription of a conversation I overheard the other day;

“I can’t believe JV is taking threes now. It’s so dumb.”

“Why?”

“Now he’s going to fall in love with it. He’s going not going to go inside for boards or anything. He’s just going to start jacking threes.”

Remember, change scares people. It’s easy to play devil’s advocate when someone experiments with adding something to their game.

I was talking to my Dad about this and he had a great point. Back in his day (way, way back), barbershop NBA-talk criticized Michael Jordan for bulking up after losing again to the Bad Boys. They claimed he was going to lose a step, get too slow and it might screw up his shot.

I wonder how that worked out.

As we know the NBA is in a full flock towards shooting as many threes as possible, and for good reason. Young big-men with range used to be a benefit, but I believe one day it will be a requirement.

Jonas might be a little late to the party, but he’s starting to climb towards the title of a “respectable” three-point shooter. Even if Drummond won’t admit it.

Wave at this one, Andre.

What does this mean for Toronto?

Here’s a little look at the Raptors’ three-point shooting from this year, as opposed to last (as pertaining to the starting lineup):

2016-2017

Lowry - 7.8 3PA / 41.2% (from 3)

DeRozan - 1.7 3PA / 26.6%

Carroll - 4.4 3PA / 34.1%

Ibaka - 4.5 3PA / 39.8%

JV - 0.0 3PA / (1 for 2 on the season)

2017-2018

Lowry - 7.6 3PA / 38.2%

DeRozan - 3.4 3PA / 33.7%

OG - 2.9 3PA / 34.6%

Ibaka - 3.9 3PA / 35.6%

JV - 0.8 3PA / 46.2%

As of now, all members of this lineup are effectively threats from three. In my eyes, this makes an absolutely massive difference to how you defend them. Pedestrian and often predictable pick-and-rolls can turn into deadly pick-and-pops, with options stationed at every angle on the perimeter.

Beyond the numbers, the increased range of Jonas carries a lot more connotation than just three points. That full second where JV eyes up the rim - his mind racing through the percentages of the situation (shot clock, momentum, rebounders, etc.) - might just be the most exciting second of basketball you’ll watch the entire game. The crowd engages in that collective “aaaaAAAHHHH”, which can easily be translated to “Shoot it, Jonas. Shoot it. Oh, my God, he’s going to shoot it”. The Toronto bench reactions are just desert at this point.

Taking the fun out of the equation, Jonas shooting (and hitting) from deep gets him more engaged on defense, and for the coming possessions. His threes also serve as massive boosts to momentum. Not only does it get Jonas flying around on defense, but it gets his teammates amped up as well. It’s almost as if Jonas hitting threes is the equivalent of someone dropping a vicious poster.

From a team perspective, it opens up so much more for DeMar and Kyle. Before, sticking JV in the corner was simply to clear up the paint for a DeMar/Kyle ISO. Now, JV is a threat from the corner. You can stick him there, but you’re not just getting him out of the way. He’ll spot up and knock that thing down.

Lastly, his 3-point success makes his world-renowned, glorious 4-second pump-fake all the more deadly.

Can Jonas Keep this Up?

I’ll admit, I was part of that group that was never overly high on Jonas after his rookie/sophomore campaign. I mean, you look at his numbers and he basically plateau-d his 2nd/3rd year, right? Well, at least that’s what I thought.

By adding the three-ball to his game, it’s opened up a wide range of possibilities. He looks more comfortable with the ball in his hands, and he’s looked a more able passer. He’s starting to tap into that higher echelon of basketball IQ and situational understanding. He's starting to realize how much of an impact he can have on the game.

In terms of his ability to keep up this increased pace, it will be tough to tell. Defenses are still going to be adjusting to a Raptors lineup that can sport 5 three-point shooters, so it may just be a matter of how quick opposing defenses can figure this out. Jonas will never be the #1 option of this Raptors offense, but there have been a few games throughout this stretch where he's been ushered into the spot for a quarter or two.

For JV, he’s always had that undeniable swagger. As much as I hate that word, it honestly might be the best one in describing the confidence that he emanates. Now that he’s slinging almost one three a game at 46%, watch out; we may have just unlocked the next level of Jonas Valanciunas.