Traders begging for nonpresidential drivers may get exactly that today, thanks to Apple and the start of a Fed meeting.

“This week was supposed to be dominated by central banks’ decisions, earnings, and economic data from across the globe, but with Donald Trump in office, nothing seems capable of taking the spotlight from the White House.” That was FXTM strategist Hussein Sayed in a note that pretty much nails the mood.

The jitters look set to stick around today, with some youngsters in for a #SaturdayNightMasscare history-refresher after Trump sent a defiant attorney general packing:

Much debate now surrounds just when to start worrying about politics in earnest, and Sayed has one answer: “The major risk looming now is the breakup of the Republican coalition, although this doesn’t seem to be the case for now. I believe it’s going to be the biggest risk to financial markets in the near future, as we end up with protectionist policies without the implementation of fiscal policies, thus triggering a sharp reversal in stocks worldwide.”

Our call of the day echoes this a bit. From Macro Man blogger Macronick comes the warning that markets could be headed for an “escalator up, elevator down” selloff. And “even a garden-variety 5% dip in the S&P would feel pretty vicious,” given the subdued state of volatility over the last two months, the blogger adds.

If the Trump administration “overplays its hand,” eroding its relationship with the GOP, its much-anticipated infrastructure spending and tax-cut programs could get delayed or downsized, Macronick says. Then, harking back to the debt-ceiling shock of 2011, a prolonged political upset could start to hit growth and business confidence. Next would come a reflation reversal for stocks.

While we’re not there yet, there’s plenty of time for more fireworks, says Macronick.

“Investors have been viewing Trump as a second coming of Reagan,” the blogger adds. “They should remember his presidency may yet end up bearing much in common with Nixon’s—a period marked by widespread civil unrest and extreme animosity between the White House and press.”

To be sure, strategists have been warning about Trump-inspired selling for a while, and the market has instead scored records.

Check out:Immigration ban ends Donald Trump’s stock-market honeymoon

Key market gauges

The Dow DJIA, -0.87% , S&P 500 SPX, -1.11% and Nasdaq Composite COMP, -1.07% are headed for another down day, with techs and industrials selling off.

Gold US:GCH7 is soaring. Japan NIK, +0.17% sold off 1.7%, while most of Asia is still closed for Lunar New Year holidays. Europe SXXP, -0.66% is flat to a little higher. See the Market Snapshot column for the latest action. The euro EURUSD, -0.06% popped higher against the dollar after a Trump adviser called the single currency “grossly undervalued.”

The chart

Three times is not really a charm when it comes to markets and a rate hike, says AJ Bell’s Russ Mould, in a timely note to clients ahead of the Fed meeting.

“Market lore has it that the third interest rate increase of a cycle is the one that really starts to stall share prices, as increased returns on cash and rising bond yields start to tempt investors away from equities,” he writes.

Here’s his chart (table):

“The data clearly show that the S&P 500 has historically traded strongly into the first rate hike but then has lost momentum as monetary policy has been tightened making little or no progress, on average, for the 12-month period that followed increase in headline U.S. borrowing costs,” says Mould.

Earnings

All eyes on Apple AAPL, -3.17% after the close (Here’s a preview, plus the guy who’s making a one-way bet on earnings).

Under Armour UA, -3.64% is slumping to a three-year low after a profit and sales miss, along with a downbeat outlook.

UA, -3.64% Also reporting, Exxon Mobil XOM, -1.61% , Pfizer PFE, -0.51% , Coach US:COH, Harley-Davidson HOG, -2.05% , Mastercard MA, -1.22% , UPS UPS, -0.05% and Sprint US:S, to name a few.

The buzz

Twitter TWTR, +2.03% is rolling out new measures to crack down on harassment.

Is Wal-Mart WMT, -1.02% going after Amazon AMZN, -1.78% ? The retailer will offer free two-day shipping on certain items, without a membership program.

Deutsche Bank DB, -1.62% DBK, -1.22% has agreed to pay nearly $630 million to end investigations by U.K. and New York regulators into Russian equity trades that violated anti-money-laundering laws.

Trump is meeting with drug-industry execs Tuesday. “Consensus does not know what to make of this given the unpredictable nature of the administration and whether it will be positive or negative for biotech equities,” cautions RBC in a note.

Amazon AMZN, -1.78% is looking at legal options to counter Trump’s immigration ban. Meanwhile, GitHub has reportedly called a group of tech companies—Google GOOGL, -2.41% , Netflix NFLX, -0.05% have been invited—to meet Tuesday and brainstorm over legal moves to fight it.

Worth a read: Reformed Broker Josh Brown’s “Stock Markets and the Rule of Law”

The economy

The Fed’s two-day meeting kicked off. Labor costs climbed 0.5% in the fourth quarter, according to fresh data. The Case-Shiller home price index showed an acceleration in home-price gains.

The quote

That’s just one of the reactions to Trump firing Attorney General Sally Yates over her refusal to defending the travel ban. William Ruckelshaus, fired as deputy attorney for defying Nixon during Watergate, weighed in on comparisons to the Saturday Night Masscare, in which the 37th president did his own “You’re fired!” routine.

Another reaction:

The stat

$17 billion—That’s how much Microsoft MSFT, -1.24% borrowed on Monday, in what’s being called the biggest corporate bond sale so far this year. It comes as many companies rush to hit up debt markets ahead of expected increases in U.S. interest rates this year and potential tax changes that could make it costlier to borrow.

Random reads

How to build an autocracy. The Atlantic releases cover story early.

Trump’s voter fraud expert was registered in 3 states during the election

Boy Scouts will now let transgender children join.

Lego launches apps aimed at trying to get children off their phones. And no bullies allowed.

Who’d look in the nose of an American Airlines airplane for cocaine?

And you thought making computers was tricky:

What took China so long to master ballpoint pens?

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