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They. Just. Don’t. Know.

The terrifying truth for today’s not-so-stupid political strategist is that federal politics is suddenly in the mad grip of a phenomenon. And smart strategists hate being in the mad grip of a phenomenon even when it’s working in their favour. Because, by definition, a phenomenon can’t be controlled. You can’t stop it. Or keep it going. You can’t spread it around. Or concentrate its focus. And you most certainly cannot put it on pause for a couple months and then fire it back up when you need it most. It’s a phenomenon – a wild bucking beast. It will go where it wishes, when it wishes and for as long or as little as it wishes.

Some NDP strategists might take exception to this characterization. They would prefer that we believe their recent success is the consequence of carefully planned and deliberately calibrated strokes of genius. This is the “slow and steady, I knew it all along” theory that is the current darling of Ottawa chattering classes.

The best of NDP strategists are smarter than that. They know better than to confuse being present for a phenomenon with being its cause. Mulcair’s team has done a bunch of things well. In particular, they’ve impressively defended their Quebec and BC strongholds. But to claim credit for what has happened in recent times – to suggest it was predicted and predictable – is flat-out disingenuous.

The federal NDP had precious little to do with Rachel Notley’s breathtaking win in Alberta. And it’s not clear what her success has to do with Mulcair’s sudden spike in popularity. Empirically, the NDP leader is no better known to people today than he was just a couple months ago. His economic program – which remains still largely undetailed – has not somehow lit the imaginations of Ontario’s voters overnight.