Democratic primary voters desperately want to beat Trump. In poll after poll (including this one), they list beating Trump as a bigger priority for their primary than a candidate who agrees with them on the issues.

Figuring out which Democrat is the most electable is no easy task, however.

One thought I had was to see what quality is best correlated with Trump’s approval rating and then see which Democrats scored best on it. The problem is that there are two variables (being able to bring about change the country needs and can manage government effectively) that are highly correlated, and they give us very different answers on potential electability.

Biden is the only Democrat who a majority of voters (55%) say can manage the government effectively. All the other Democrats have a similar net score (those who say they can minus those who say they can't) to one another.

Yet, Biden has the worst spread on being a change agent (40% say yes compared to 55% who say no). Buttigieg and Sanders have the best net scores at -6 points and -7 points, respectively.

This, of course, is the fundamental issue Democratic primary voters face in 2020. If this is a change election, then Biden is likely not going to be the most electable candidate. If, however, voters end up wanting someone they think can right the ship from an unorthodox Trump presidency, Biden’s the right guy.