Welcome to the inaugural Fake Monday Morning QB, where I go and look at some of the most controversial moments from some of the top games around and the league and explain why all the coaches are bad. My hope is not to make fun of others, but to help shed some light to some common mistakes coaches make, and help improve play across the league.

A warning here for anyone reading this. This article is pretty meta and my analysis therewithin will be really meta. If this is something you aren’t interested in, that’s more than fine, turn away, because this article won’t be for you. I wanted to take a look at some of the biggest decisions and play calls from the week’s biggest games, and go over what went wrong. I won’t be looking at specific number selection, but more so the choices besides the number, when to run, when to pass, when to call a timeout, when to forget to take a timeout because you always forget that it happens before a play, that kind of thing. Hopefully we all can learn something along the way. I’ll be cross referencing our ranges with Pro Football Reference’s Win Probability Calculator often.

Love: The Colorado State – Washington State Masterpiece

If anyone wants to go look through a master class of coaching, this is the game to go look at. Before even getting into number selection, this game was called absolutely perfectly on both sides. They went for it on fourth when they needed it, they punted when it was the better play, and they stuck to their playbook advantage (both option teams, and ran in almost every situation, which is the statistically correct play). A late timeout by Washington St left just enough time on the clock for him to score the tying touchdown as time expired, and saved the game for him.

There was only one sequence that is even open to questioning, and I still believe that it fell on the correct side of things. After forcing a Colorado St. stop on 4th down, Wazzooga took over on their own 25, and quickly fumbled the ball right back to end the second overtime and begin the third. While some may have suggested immediately kicking the field goal there, I like the call to try to pick up some yards first. A 42 yard field goal is by no means a sure thing (~ 65.1% success rate), and you’d have to run 15 plays to have the same odds of fumbling. What happened there is unfortunate, but given the improved odds just ten yards closer (80.5%), it was absolutely the right call.

Disklike: Conservative Texas

Texas really, really tried to lose this game, and almost succeeded in doing so. First of all, Texas came in with a huge playbook advantage, as they were rocking a 5-2 defense, which is an absolute killer against the Air Raid. That, coupled with their Spread versus Western Kentucky’s 4-3, meant that their expected success was nearly double on a per play basis. And yet, they continually ran the ball, making it basically an even playing field in that regard. While running does keep the clock going and can help to bleed the clock, Texas was rarely in a strong enough position to exchange winning plays for ticks of the clock, and it almost bit him in this one.

There was also a highly questionable punt call that helped breathe life back into the Western Kentucky sideline. On fourth and 6 at his opponent’s 44 yard line, a punt is almost criminal. You typically stand to gain only 25 yards in exchange for possession, and numbers wise, if your punt was much better, you still should’ve gone for it because now you would’ve converted. It’s a disappointing call, quickly led to a touchdown the other way, and helped spark WKU’s comeback. More on this game later, however.

Like: Situational Air Raid running

Interesting dirty little secret about the Air Raid… it can run! The average difference for passing and running for the Air Raid is about 0.4 yards per play, less than the difference in Spread (0.8) Option (1.7) and even Pro (0.5). Some of our savvier coaches seemed to have picked up on. For a good example, check the Wisconsin Georgia Tech game, where the Wisconsin head coach often switched between running and passing to help chew the clock and convert short third downs. When done correctly, it can make the Air Raid hard to stop

Dislike: Situation Spread Running

This is not the same! The spread suffers when it runs, and it suffers a lot. While it isn’t as much of an uphill battle as an Option team throwing the ball from behind, the spread offense suffers when trying to run the ball. If you don’t have the game absolutely in hand, or aren’t looking at a 4th and 2 (which you should always always go for by the way), you shouldn’t be running. You’re doing more harm than good to your team. Yes you are burning clock, but you’re leaving yards on the field and forcing yourself to run extra plays, which increases your chance of a turnover. Avoid at all costs! See the previously mentioned Texas – WKU game and the Pitt – CMU game’s as examples of this.

Dislike: Surprise Onside Kicks

In real football, the occasional surprise onside kick can catch an opposing team off guard, giving teams close to a 50% chance of recovering the ball. Expected onsides, unsurprisingly, are considerably much less successful, and those closer reflect the odds we work with playing FCFB. At just 12% odds of recovery, they are not a smart play, and you gain no benefit from “catching the opposition napping.” It’s a risky play, and while you may recover one here or there, it’s not worth the risk unless the game is slipping out of reach. Be better coaches! See the Buffalo – Penn State game and the Massachusetts Oklahoma State game as an example of overly aggressive onsides.

Like: Situational Onside Kicks

Of course kicking onsides down multiple possessions with little time left is still an optimal play, even if your odds aren’t great. But there is another situation where onsides could have a small place in this game. With little time left in the second quarter, onsides carry less risk, especially against option teams. If you recover, you can make an attempt to quickly get down the field, and if you go 3 & out, you can punt to your opponent, pinning them deep with next to no time left. If you don’t, you have an opponent likely scrambling to take advantage of their improved field position, while still battling the clock, as well as your defense. Done properly, it can be used as a chance to generate an extra possession with little risk. See the Virginia – LSU game as an example of this, where a successful onside late in the second led to a quick bonus Virgina touchdown.

Dislike: Coaches Forgetting About Timeouts

I get it, it’s been a long offseason, and it can be a bit confusing, but timeouts happen before the play, not after. Timeouts can be one of your strongest tools as a coach especially in close games (see deBob, Ooga). They happen before the play where you are calling a timeout. Calling a timeout, then passing, then kicking a field goal with 4 seconds left in the half is going to result in you not getting the snap off. It’s heartbreaking when it happens, mostly because it’s completely avoidable.

As a fun cousin to this, forgetting you have or forgetting to call timeouts when the game is winding down and a one possession game may just be even worse. You don’t get to keep them, and they don’t roll over, so don’t let them rot in your pocket. Call your timeouts. Get in the habit of checking. It may just cost you the game. See the first half gauff by Buffalo in his game versus Penn State, or the lack of a final timeout in the Texas – WKU game as examples.

Combo Like/Dislike: Calling your own failure

Combing through all these games can get a little exhausting, and I must say I appreciated the editorialized play calls. Two of my favorites of the last week were:

“I should give it away here considering I’ve gained a grand total of zero yards on two fourth down attempts along with a punt returned for a TD, while Tyler has had great success tonight converting his two fourth downs with a forty(!) and nineteen yard gains respectively. BUT I’m not someone who learns his lessons very well, so let’s fail with Hurry Pass idk 888.” CMU, he did not convert

“Probably a mistake, two point 827” Rice, indeed making a mistake

While we are here, there are very few correct times to go for 2. It’s like FCFB’s sucker bet. In real football, the 2 pointer has seen a rise in popularity as offenses have improved and XP kicks have moved back. But in FCFB the odds just don’t favor going for it. You average 0.96 points every time you kick the XP, but only 0.8 on two point conversions. Unless the situation is absolutely clear cut, you are leaving points on the field by going for two. See the Rice – VT game as a perfect example of a foolish 2 pointer, or the end of the Texas – WKU game as two great times to break out the two pointer, although both eventually failed.

And that’s all for this week folks! Check back in next week for more Tuesday Morning Quarterbacking