Johnson's debate prospects dim Gary Johnson’s hopes of earning an invitation to the Sept. 26 debate are all but extinguished.

The door is about to close on Gary Johnson.

The nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates has set a “mid-September” deadline for Johnson and the other third-party candidates to meet three criteria to qualify for the first debate later this month: “evidence of constitutional eligibility,” “evidence of ballot access” and “indicators of electoral support.”


Johnson clearly meets the first two qualifications: A two-term former governor of New Mexico, Johnson is a citizen and older than 35 years of age. And the Johnson campaign said Wednesday that he’ll be on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, meaning he’s eligible to win all 538 electoral votes at stake on November 8.

But on the third qualification, Johnson falls short, and it isn’t particularly close. The commission says he must be polling at 15 percent in five major, national polls, “using the average of those organizations' most recent publicly-reported results at the time of the determination.”

As of Wednesday afternoon, Johnson is at only 9 percent, according to a POLITICO estimate.

The commission on Wednesday didn’t return a telephone message and an email seeking to clarify when, exactly, in “mid-September” the criteria would be applied. But with the midpoint of the month a day away, and only 12 days until the first debate, Johnson’s hopes of earning an invitation are all but extinguished.

The Libertarian nominee concedes that he will almost certainly fail to meet the mark, asking for a special dispensation that would allow him to participate. And Johnson realizes the stakes: He admitted last month that failing to make the debate stage would be “game over” for his hopes of becoming president.

If Johnson isn’t invited, it doesn’t mean he won’t be a factor in the presidential race, especially in battleground states with a history of supporting third-party candidates. But the only impact Johnson is likely to make will be at the margins.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Johnson is at 9 percent in an average of the most recent qualifying polls from ABC News/Washington Post (9 percent), CBS News/New York Times (10 percent), CNN/ORC International (7 percent), Fox News (9 percent) and NBC News/Wall Street Journal (10 percent).

And there’s little indication that Johnson is gaining ground. To the contrary: His two best polls among the five included in the average are also the two oldest. The CBS News/New York Times and NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls were conducted in late July and early August, in the immediate wake of the two major parties’ national conventions.

(A Quinnipiac University poll out on Wednesday pegged his national support at 13 percent, but that isn’t included in the commission’s average.)

The two most-recent polls that will be included, from ABC News/Washington Post and CNN/ORC, took measures of likely voters, which were included in the above analysis — and generally show decreasing support for third-party candidates. But even if the results for all registered voters were factored in, Johnson would only be at 9.8 percent in the average — still more than 5 points shy of the threshold. (The commission hasn’t replied to numerous questions — including two posed again on Wednesday — about which measure, registered or likely voters, it will use to determine Johnson’s eligibility.)

Johnson’s pending disqualification comes even as his campaign and its allies are making their case for his inclusion. Johnson and his running mate — former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld — took out a full-page advertisement in Wednesday’s New York Times, acknowledging that they won’t reach 15 percent in the polls. But they are pleading with the commission to allow them to participate in the first debate despite their low standing in the polls.

“We’ve done the work required to appear on the ballot in all 50 states and because we are polling in double digits in the majority of those states, we respectfully propose the following: Put a third podium on stage for the debate scheduled on September 26th,” the letter read. “Allow us to make our case to the American people. If, in the polls that follow, we fail to meet that 15 [percent] standard, we'll make no further efforts for inclusion in subsequent debates.”

Public opinion is on Johnson's side. According to the new Quinnipiac poll, the majority of likely voters, 57 percent, think Johnson should be included in the debate, while only 37 percent say he shouldn't be invited.

And Johnson does have high-profile allies to help him make the case. Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP presidential nominee, tweeted last week that he hopes “voters get to see former GOP Governors Gary Johnson and Bill Weld on the debate stages this fall.” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) told NBC News last week he thought the 15-percent standard was too high.

Green Party nominee Jill Stein is also making the case for inclusion, though she is far from the 15-percent threshold (3.25 percent in polls of likely voters, 3.75 percent in polls of all registered voters). The Stein camp has held rallies in recent days, asking the commission and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton to agree to its addition. Stein isn’t on the ballot in every state, but she could win a theoretical Electoral College majority if she won all of the states in which she’s a registered candidate.

Assuming the commission doesn’t accede to Johnson and Stein’s demands, the first debate at Hofstra University on Long Island will consist solely of Clinton and GOP nominee Donald Trump. But Johnson and Stein can still play a role, even if they won’t have the stage to make their case to the large televised audiences that are likely to tune into the debates.

With the race between Clinton and Trump tightening in recent weeks, Johnson and Stein loom as potential spoilers in a number of battleground states with long histories of backing third-party candidates. In the past four presidential elections, third-party and independent candidates have earned 1.9 percent of the national popular vote.

But Maine (3.26 percent in the past four presidential elections), Colorado (2.79 percent), Nevada (2.41 percent), New Hampshire (2.11 percent) and Wisconsin (1.98 percent) are all potential battlegrounds where third-party candidates have outperformed relative to the nation as a whole in recent elections and could be places where Johnson and Stein could have outsized influence.