New Prop 1 ad overstates the case about lousy roads

LANSING — A new 60-second ad supporting the Proposal 1 road funding plan has several exaggerated claims, a Free Press analysis found.

The ad is twice as long as previous TV ads that have aired either for or against Proposal 1. Roger Martin, a spokesman for Safe Roads Yes, said a longer ad was needed to explain the proposal — which includes raising the state sales tax to 7% from 6% — in more detail.

The special election is May 5.

The Free Press fact-checked claims made in the ad, titled "Does." Similar claims were made in the second-most-recent Safe Roads Yes ad, titled "Guarantees and Warranties."

Title: "Does"

Length: 60 seconds

Sponsor: Safe Roads Yes

Claim: Proposal 1 "fixes more than 1,000 dangerous bridges"

Reality: Overstated

Michigan has 1,295 bridges that are "structurally deficient," according to 2014 data from the Federal Highway Administration. According to the Michigan Department of Transportation, that means an important part of the bridge is rated in "poor" condition, its load-carrying capacity is significantly below current design standards, or a waterway tops the bridge during floods.

Structurally deficient bridges would be targeted with some of the close to $1.3 billion a year in road and bridge-repair money Proposal 1 would raise. But "structurally deficient" does not mean the same as "dangerous." MDOT closes bridges it deems dangerous.

Claim: "A third of the fatal or serious accidents are due to poor roads."

Reality: False. Safe Roads Yes attributes this statement to a report from TRIP, a national transportation research group funded by insurance companies, road builders and equipment manufacturers, among others.

What the report from TRIP actually says is: "It is estimated that roadway features are likely a contributing factor in approximately one-third of fatal traffic crashes."

TRIP says it got the one-third figure from a 2014 report, "Toward Zero Deaths: National Strategy on Highway Safety," prepared by several government agencies with a role in highway safety.

A footnote in the "Toward Zero Deaths" report attributes the one-third figure to a 1979 report prepared for the U.S. Transportation Department, titled "Tri-Level Study of the Causes of Traffic Accidents."

That report says "environmental factors" are probable causes in about 34% of accidents, while human factors are probable causes in just over 90% of accidents and vehicular factors are probable causes in about 10% (many accidents have multiple contributing causes).

But the report said the leading environmental factors were view obstructions, slick roads, transient hazards, road design problems and control hindrances. Poorly maintained roads did not make the list.

Claim: "It guarantees that every dime of tax you pay at the pump goes to transportation."

Reality: True. Currently, there are three taxes at the pump. State sales tax, which does not support transportation, and federal and state fuel taxes, which do.

Proposal 1 removes the state sales tax from fuel sales, leaving only the state and federal fuel taxes.

Under Article IX, Section 9 of the existing constitution, all fuel taxes must be used to support transportation and at least 90% of it must be spent on state and local roads.

Claim: "It requires road builders to warranty their work. If they don't build it right, they pay — not us."

Reality: Overstated. Bills tied to Proposal 1 seek to expand the use of warranties on road projects at both the state and local level, but they do not require warranties on all road projects. Among other changes, the bills require local road agencies on some projects to report to the state why they're not requiring warranties.

Claim: "It's a permanent solution, not another Band-Aid. And Lansing can't play shell games with the money."

Reality: Overstated. It's true that Proposal 1 is not a short-term fix because, unlike the present system, it provides for additional road revenues to keep pace with inflation.

But to call Proposal 1 a permanent solution to Michigan's road funding needs is a stretch. It's a plan built mostly around fuel taxes, and fuel consumption is steadily dropping due to more fuel-efficient vehicles and the growth in the use of vehicles powered in other ways, such as with electricity.

Claim: "We spend less per person on roads than any other state."

Reality: True, based on 2012 data from the U.S. Census Bureau on State and Local Government Finance, if one looks at state spending only (not including local or federal spending) and does not include capital spending.

Using other measures, Michigan ranks near, but not at the bottom, for per-capita road spending.

Truthfulness rating: Most of the claims in the ad have a core of truth but are overstated.

Contact Paul Egan: 517-372-8660, pegan@freepress.com or on Twitter @paulegan4