Officially, they are the official opposition.

In reality, Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats are punching — and polling — well below their weight.

This weekend, Horwath will be held to account at an NDP convention and leadership review to decide whether she takes the party into her fourth provincial campaign, expected in 2022. After 10 years in the job, Horwath may be the longest-serving major party leader in Canada today — enduring if not always endearing to voters.

In the daily question period, the NDP leader still reads methodically from her notes when speaking, despite her decade of experience. In the media, Horwath is often overshadowed by her Liberal and Green party rivals.

With Premier Doug Ford’s Tories tumbling, the NDP would seem well placed to profit from PC unpopularity. Yet Horwath’s New Democrats appear unable to gain traction at a time of widespread political discontent, a year after they claimed second place in the “change” election that brought Ford to power.

Surprisingly, one poll last month showed the battered Liberal party has vaulted from a distant third place into the lead, with the NDP languishing well back alongside the wounded Tories. In other surveys, the NDP is roughly tied with the Liberals and Tories and unable to break out, while the last-place Greens are gaining fresh support.

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Despite their current limbo, Horwath will boast Saturday that she won 40 seats in the 2018 election and achieved the prestige of official opposition status. But delegates know well that she benefited from public contempt for Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals and lingering distrust of Ford — a perfect storm that yielded a high-water mark, possibly never to be repeated.

Unlike ex-PC leader Tim Hudak — who was also elected party leader in 2009, but bowed out after his second election defeat in 2014 — Horwath is a survivor. She seems assured of a healthy endorsement from loyal New Democrats on Saturday, as in previous party conventions.

In truth, however, Saturday’s vote means everything and nothing — for behind even the most auspicious review a revolt may be brewing. Tom Mulcair can attest to the risks, having lost a dramatic post-election review in 2016; but even a splendid victory is no assurance of success, as ex-PQ leader Pauline Marois discovered in 2011 after winning her review by 93 per cent only to be deposed months later by her disaffected caucus.

Beyond securing her anticlimactic convention vote from delegates, the bigger challenge for Horwath is how to resonate with voters at large.

She has long enjoyed high favourability ratings compared to, say, Ford, Wynne and Hudak — largely because she had fewer negatives (or more precisely, because she was the least well known). Now, however, Ontario has a new Mr. Congeniality in Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner, whose folksy manner and passionate environmentalism are eclipsing Horwath’s persona.

In between elections, the NDP is typically the beneficiary of public discontent as disaffected voters “park” their support while straying from the Liberals or Tories. Today, it is the Green party that is swelling in support, both federally and provincially, as voters mull their options — turning the NDP into a no-parking zone.

Despite the seeming stall and fall in NDP fortunes, Horwath insists she is gravitating to government, pointing to stronger fundraising and a disciplined caucus that is poised for power after years of Liberal and PC blunders:

“Our party’s never been in better shape,” she told reporters this month. “I’m looking ahead to government.”

Horwath’s challenge, however, is not just predicting her own march to power, but making it happen. Over her 10 years as leader, she has yet to make her mark.

She led a disastrous campaign in 2014 — giving up the balance of power in a Liberal minority government by allowing Wynne to outflank her on the left. She presided over the party’s strong recovery in the 2018 election, but failed to make the most of Ford’s errors (while making a few of her own — standing by wayward candidates and insisting she’d never end a long-running York University strike).

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To this day, Horwath seems unable to forge a strong connection with Ontarians. Few people line up for selfies at her events, there is little visible camaraderie with her fellow MPPs onstage (she rarely shares the microphone), no inspirational rhetoric to lift up her audiences beyond putting down her rivals (teleprompters don’t do the trick).

After a decade of defeats, for better or for worse, Horwath seems just good enough. Perhaps the NDP will be lucky again with an unpopular new Liberal leader (to be chosen next March) and an unelectable PC premier in 2022.

Over the past 10 years, however, Horwath-mania has yet to gain momentum. The NDP has three years left to get it going.

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