Perriello enters election day with a large polling lead

A new poll from CSP Polling shows Perriello going into election day with a small lead in primary voters, 46% for Perriello, 41% for Northam, 13% undecided and a MoE of 4.2%. This poll was conducted among 1,642 Virginia citizens, and asked potential voters to choose from a list of democratic candidates. With this level of undecided, the election is still very much in play for both sides. Perriello draws from a less reliable pool of support, while Northam supporters tend to be high turnout voters. Perriello leads among every age group except 65+, and leads 18-24 year olds by 15%. Perriello leads every racial demographic except Asian and hispanic. Perriello has a 16% lead amongst african americans and a 2% lead with white voters. Perriellos lead in the state is strongest in the southern cities. By gender, Perriello leads men by 6% and women by 1%. All in all, Perriello has a commanding lead in the traditional democratic bases of support, however the voters that support him tend to be infrequent voters that are hard to predict on election day, while Northam voters are more reliable and consistent turnout. It’s hard to know how those two will end up voting.

The Demographics of this new progressive movement are reminiscent of the Obama coalition

If Perriello has a good voter turnout campaign and manages to grab some independent voters, he should have no problem winning the primary. If, however, Northams more moderate views earn him more of the undecided vote, and his base has strong turnout while Perriello’s stay home, he has a real shot of taking the win. With this high energy of progressive voters, Perriello is currently the favorite to win the primary.