Can you feel it? Yes, that’s your computer melting from the inside out because of that sweet, sweet #SunBeltHeat.

Three things from last season:

1. It all came down to ASU

Appalachian State was good last season. Really good. As in, good enough to go 10-2, with one of their losses coming to eventual national runner-up Clemson. Yet somehow, the other loss undid their conference title hopes.

Compared to the east coast darling Mountaineers, the Arkansas State Red Wolves came into Boone, North Carolina on November 5th, 2015 perhaps a bit disrespected. Sure, they were undefeated in the ‘Belt, but their out of conference slate had not gone as planned and their Sun Belt victories weren’t nearly as convincing as they should’ve been.

At halftime, it was 21-17, Mountaineers. Then the Red Wolves found their inner Furiosa, putting their semi-truck into the “smash mode” gear and running straight over those newcomers from the SoCon. Running backs Michael Gordon and Johnston White went nuts on a stingy Mountaineer defense, and it was game, set, conference title, Red Wolves. The next three blowouts for Arkansas State over spiritually broken ULM, outmatched NMSU, and apathetic Texas State were a mere formality on the way to a perfect Sun Belt season.

2. Will the real GSU please stand up?

Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State was becoming an underrated rivalry, if only from the perspective of watching two Group of Five fanbases be extremely catty to one another over who the “real” GSU was.

Despite a high-flying offense led by dynamic senior quarterback Nick Arbuckle and a truly scary set of wide receivers, absolutely nobody outside of the Georgia State campus gave the Panthers a chance to win the 2015 edition of the annual “Internecine Southern Conflict of Passive Aggressiveness Over A Set of Initials, presented by Golden Flake.” Which is why it was all the more shocking (and to many around the Sun Belt, entertaining) when the Sun Belt Bullies were depantsed in Statesboro by their rivals from the north, 34-7. Which then got Georgia State into their first bowl game.

To add the cherry on top of the ice cream, or pile of excrement, depending on which side of the rivalry you’re on, Georgia Southern University officially surrendered the GSU initials to Georgia State University over the offseason, then pretended like they didn’t want it in the first place while fooling absolutely nobody in the process (sorry, Walt).

It’s safe to call this a real rivalry now.

3. The elder statesmen have departed

Willie Fritz (56), Todd Berry (55) and Dennis Franchione (65) were the three oldest coaches in the Sun Belt last season, and they’ve all exited their respective premises. Willie Fritz made the somewhat head scratching move from powerful Georgia Southern to AAC doormat Tulane, while the bottom fell out for Berry and Franchione, who was fired from ULM and resigned from Texas State, respectively.

All three teams got younger at head coach in the offseason. Georgia Southern now employs the youngest head coach in the Sun Belt in promoting Tyson Summers (36), Texas State got someone fairly younger (and far more energetic) in former James Madison head coach Everett Withers, and ULM hired McNeese State’s Matt Viator (52), who still represents a new direction despite only being three years younger than Berry.

Three things for this season:

1. Somebody, anybody, score a major P5 upset

USA Today says that the Sun Belt needs to be viewed through a lens of how they compare to the rest of the Group of Five, which is absolutely true. Yet despite having an on-field product essentially on par with the MAC and, recently, C-USA, everyone still sees the Sun Belt as being at the bottom of the national totem pole in perception because they get their faces kicked in by the Power Five every season. If the SBC wants to start earning credibility among college football writ large, then they need to start collecting some P5 scalps as well.

The good news is, there are plenty of candidates for the Sun Belt to do just that. Some matchups to keep an eye on include Georgia Southern at Georgia Tech, Miami (FL) at Appalachian State, Arkansas State at Auburn, Louisiana at Georgia, New Mexico State at Kentucky, and Idaho at Washington State. If the Sun Belt can score even 3 wins out of that list, it’d likely be enough to sit up and make some take notice.

2. The Big Three, but…

If you read Phil Steele, Athlon, Lindy’s, etc., their preseason Sun Belt prognostications probably all go as such order:

Appalachian State

Arkansas State

Georgia Southern

(A GAP THE SIZE OF THE DISTANCE BETWEEN MOSCOW AND STATESBORO)

Everyone else

Sure, that seems the likeliest scenario. But is that order of finish really as automatic as everyone seems to think it is?

Arkansas State has to replace Fredi Knighten at quarterback, a steady and competent presence throughout his years in Jonesboro. Georgia Southern has to replace their new head coach and hope that his version of the triple option is just as effective as the last one. Neither the Eagles or the Mountaineers can count on ridiculously unbalanced conference schedules to pad their win totals anymore. Sure, the other darkhorses all have big questions as well, but ULL will never be short on scary good Louisiana talent, Troy’s on the upswing and gets both ASUs at home, and Georgia State won’t go away quietly if they can find a quarterback to adequately replace Nick Arbuckle.

The #1 spot may be a lock for recent Sun Belt contenders, but the 2nd through 8th spots could be a far more wide open race than the average national analyst thinks. It’s college football after all, a sport whose main export is wackiness.

3. The wildest of cards

Let’s put aside the aforementioned darkhorses for a second. If you really want to look at a potential contender that nobody is talking about, you could try your hand at New Mexico State or, yes, even Idaho.

Both teams have offenses that can drop bombs on most defenses in the conference, which means they “only” need to finally put it together on defense. NMSU’s Larry Rose III would be a Heisman contender if he was playing somewhere other than Las Cruces, and Idaho’s Matt Linehan, Callen Hightower, and Trent Cowen represent an aerial attack that may be one of the best in the conference. Not to mention both teams won’t be short on motivation after the Sun Belt snubbed their permanent membership bids, so if you’re looking for teams with the intangible of truly having nothing to lose and everything to gain, it’s these two.

Season Prediction

I gave Arkansas State the title nod given their winning track record, proven ability to reload, and slightly easier schedule, even though I believe Appalachian State is probably the better team by a slight margin. The fact that they don’t play each other this season is yet another scheduling travesty in a conference that seemingly has one or two whoppers every year.

Georgia Southern and Troy could still easily contend, but the Trojans are probably a year or two off from putting it all together and the Eagles have to work out the kinks with a new coaching staff, absorb a major loss of experience in the secondary, and then survive a difficult schedule from October to December. Expect them to assist in deciding who wins the Sun Belt, even though they may not win it themselves.

Arkansas State Appalachian State Troy Georgia Southern Louisiana New Mexico State Georgia State Idaho Texas State South Alabama UL-Monroe