By: Jacob Murphey | WCTV Eyewitness News

April 9, 2020

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) – In the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, the future is nearly impossible to predict. But hospitals across the country are trying to gain insight on how bad it will get and how many resources will be needed.

On Thursday,

they are using to prepare. The UPenn "CHIME" model, which is being used by hospitals around the country, shows the greater Tallahassee area is far from the peak of hospitalizations. The largest strain on resources could come in late May or June, according to the projection.

But what to make of this model? And how does it compare to other predictions that indicate the peak is right around the corner?

Dr. Daniel Van Derme serves as the Chief Medical Officer for FSU's College of Medicine. He spoke with WCTV about what this all means.

"I expected it to be bad, but it was worse than what I expected quite frankly," he said.

Van Derme explained the CHIME model uses data provided by local hospitals, including regional population, bed capacity, known infection rates, and social distancing measures.

Van Derme said the return to normal life is still a long ways off.

"It's a marathon not a sprint, so to the people who are frustrated at prolonged stay at home orders...it really is a matter of what are my coping skills, what else can I do," he said.

Van Derme said as long as the data indicates Tallahassee hasn't reached its peak, it'll be best to continue strict social distancing guidelines.

Another popular prediction tool, promoted by the White House, is the University of Washington IHME model. It offers a detailed prediction of how each state will fare in the coming weeks.

For Florida, it pins the peak of the epidemic in late April. So why the difference between the models? Dr. Van Derme explained other parts of the state, like South Florida, are far ahead along the curve compared with the Big Bend. While the state as a whole might see an early April peak, the Capital City could be lagging months behind.

Van Derme pointed out a silver lining in the delayed peak. He said the extra months gives researches more time to find treatment options for patients and gives hospitals more time to gather life-saving equipment, perhaps with less competition.

When presenting the model Thursday, TMH leaders cautioned that any model is only a guess. There are too many variables to know exactly what will happen. But as Van Derme put it, it's better to have "twice as much" and not need it rather than the other way around.