CALGARY—The United Conservative Party unveiled its full platform Saturday, including its centrepiece promise: to reach a surplus by 2023 without revenues from the carbon tax they’ve vowed to scrap.

Most of the party’s policies had already been released in pieces over the past month, but the platform outlines for the first time how the UCP plans to replace the NDP’s carbon levy, which has been one of the party’s most prominent pledges as the province gets ready to head to the polls on April 16.

The UCP’s vision is largely a return to the system Alberta used from 2007 to 2016: instead of charging everyone for their use of fossil fuels, only large industrial emitters would be on the hook, easing the burden on taxpayers. It would also kill the NDP’s current large emitters program.

The UCP says the plan will spur investment and spark job creation. However, the lack of a carbon tax eliminates $5.7 billion in revenue for the province over the next four years, according to their platform.

Forgone revenues from that program — combined with $1.3 billion lost over four years from replacing the NDP’s large-emitters carbon program with the UCP’s new plan, and more losses from lowering the corporate tax rate to 8 per cent by 2023 — leave the UCP with a hole to fill to get to a balanced budget.

Read more:

Week 2 of the Alberta election campaign: It’s raining policy announcements

Alberta election debate coming next week — and one leader is not on the list

Alberta doctors put up election billboards calling for bold action on climate change

The UCP budget says its corporate tax cuts will generate business and increase revenues, but that wouldn’t make up the difference. The UCP projects the move will generate $1 billion by 2023, but that isn’t enough to offset the $3.4 billion lost from the tax cuts.

The party has promised to make up the rest, if they form government, by setting up a commission to find “efficiencies” in Alberta’s finances. So far, some of the savings the UCP has identified come from cancelling the $640-million “super lab” in Edmonton, reallocating $1.1 billion in administrative costs associated with the carbon tax rebates and reversing the NDP’s move to spend $3.7 billion on leasing rail cars to ship crude oil.

Kenney said those and others already add up to savings of about $5.7 billion right off the bat. That would cover losses incurred from getting rid of the carbon tax, but the UCP will still need to look for billions more in spending reductions. Kenney said that if elected, he would conduct a wide-scale review of government programs, but the plan is about moving the money elsewhere rather than cutting.

The UCP Platform View document on Scribd

“Ultimately, there’s no cuts in the overall fiscal plan,” he said. The point is to take wasteful, low-priority spending and reallocate that to high-priority spending.”

He said he intends to listen to people in public services, municipalities, schools and hospitals about how to find efficiencies as part of the review a UCP government would conduct. He added that if elected, he would also cut the premier’s salary by 10 per cent and MLAs’ salaries by 5 per cent.

“We’re not talking about cutting spending. This is a very mainstream, balanced approach, gradually getting to balance without any absolute reductions in spending. But we will only get there if we grow the economy.”

In response, the NDP blasted Kenney’s proposed budget, saying there’s no way the UCP could find enough “efficiencies” to cover lost revenue without cutting core services like health care. The NDP also said economists have cast doubt on the idea that those corporate tax cuts will create jobs and lead to more money for the province.

“Jason Kenney wants Albertans to believe he can ride to the rescue with billions in tax breaks for corporations and the economy will magically diversify itself,” said Sarah Hoffman, NDP incumbent for Edmonton-Glenora who has served as deputy premier. “His plan won’t work. No matter how they’ve voted in the past, Albertans are seeing Kenney’s corporate tax scheme for what it is: help for those who need it least, and a whole lot of hurt for everyone else.”

The UCP promises to maintain government operational spending at current levels, aside from a modest $700 million in new spending over four years. But inflation and population growth mean more money will be needed to maintain the same level of service. For that, the UCP will have to find more efficiencies.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

If they manage to stick to the spending plan outlined in the platform, a UCP government would have a $7.4-billion deficit in 2019-20, then gradually decrease it in the two years that follow. By 2022-23, UCP projects a surplus of slightly more than $700 million.

A primary pillar of the UCP’s platform has been the cancellation of the provincial carbon tax. Kenney has said that moving to get rid of the levy would be his government’s first priority, if elected, along with eliminating the NDP’s current large emitter program.

The UCP replacement would be called TIER — the Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction fund.

Under TIER, large emitters would have to cut their greenhouse gas emissions by 10 per cent in the first year. That rate would increase by 1 per cent every year.

The current carbon levy is $30 per tonne. The UCP plan would see large emitters pay a lower price of $20 per tonne.

This would reduce carbon emissions by 17 megatonnes by 2020, and 43 megatonnes by 2030, the UCP projects. That’s lower than the NDP’s projections of 50 megatonnes for its plan over the same time period.

The UCP plan would also remove a cap on oilsands emissions and an NDP plan to phase out high-emisson coal-fired plants by 2030.

The party says the new carbon pricing plan would generate estimated revenues of $570 million in 2020-2021. By comparison, the current carbon levy is estimated to raise $1.34 billion in 2018-19.

The first $100 million in revenue from this new plan, and 50 per cent of revenues after that, will go toward new technology to reduce carbon emissions. The revenue will also be used to pay for part of the $30 million per year promised to set up the UCP’s “energy war room” to combat falsehoods about Alberta’s energy sector.

The UCP plan also doesn’t account for possible revenue generated by the federal carbon tax because the UCP plans to take Ottawa to court over their carbon plan. (Critics say there’s little chance such a court challenge would succeed.)

The NDP haven’t released their costed platform yet, but the UCP projections for the province’s revenues are lower than those outlined in the government’s last budget. That’s because the UCP budget relies on more conservative estimates for the price of oil — a huge factor, as the province’s fate is heavily dependent on oil and gas revenues.

Those estimates come from third-party consulting firm Stokes Economics, which reviewed the UCP’s platform.

The UCP projections, like the NDP’s last budget, also assume that new pipelines will be completed. Kenney has promised to ensure they get built, but the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion to take Alberta oil west to tidewater could still face further legal challenges as the government works to finish consulting Indigenous groups on the project.

Emma McIntosh is an environment, justice and investigative reporter with Star Calgary. Follow her on Twitter at @EmmaMci

Read more about: