Hyperventilate!

With the 2016 Iowa precinct caucuses only ten days away, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton maintains a strong lead over her nearest rival, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, according to the newest Loras College Poll. The statewide poll of 500 likely voters in the Democratic caucus was conducted Jan. 13-18. The newest Loras College Poll finds Clinton leading in terms of which candidate people intend to vote for, which candidate people expect will actually win the precinct caucuses, as well as who they expect will be the eventual nominee. While Sanders has made small gains since the last Loras College Poll released in December, he remains well behind Clinton in this poll.

The numbers are in a chart, and I’m too lazy to screen grab and upload. But the margin is a whopping 59-30, which is MOE wobble from the December 59-27 Loras number. And Loras is actually in Iowa! Which clearly proves that Hillary is doing everything right and Bernie is doing everything wrong, right?

Wrong.

Um.

Yesterday's CNN poll that showed Bernie up 8 got a lot of hype around here, even though just a quick look at the demographics revealed it to be a joke. One doesn't even need to look at the internals on this Loras poll to know it's a joke. It's ridiculous. But yesterday's CNN poll got a lot of hype because it fit narratives. And of course, there was another poll yesterday, from KBUR, that showed Hillary up 9. Which fit other narratives.

Yesterday, I jokingly said I expect PPP to come out with a poll today showing Hillary up 15. But it was Loras, instead, and the margin was twice as high. Which just proves whatever one wants to prove.

What do I want to prove?

Here's clue number one: The Iowa caucuses are notoriously difficult to poll. In 2008, CNN was just barely off. By 11.

Here's clue number two: The only Iowa poll that matters is Selzer. Period. Selzer last week had Hillary up 2, which is within the MOE, and which was down from a consistent 7-9 since August. And that sounded about right, given the Bernie surge in the national polling last week.

Here's clue number three: This week, the national polling has been more mixed, so it's probable that Hillary remains a slight favorite in Iowa. But unless Selzer comes out with another poll, we won't get another good read. We will get lots of other polls. And they will be all over the place. And one or two of them might prove accurate. But if you have a narrative to sell, you'll find a poll to fit it. Meanwhile, the race is close, the demographics are known, and the only question is turnout.