Politics Analysis

Jason Kenney won big — and the Ottawa-Alberta relationship is about to get unruly

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His federal connections give him a nationwide profile few premiers enjoy. How will he use it?

United Conservative Party Leader Jason Kenney speaks at a rally before the election, in Sherwood Park, Alta., on April 15, 2019. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press)

The New Democrats' defeat in last night's Alberta provincial election marked the end of a remarkable chapter in the province's politics — Alberta's first-ever NDP government.

The arrival of a new provincial conservative government, meanwhile, could mark the start of a new chapter in federal politics.

Premier-designate Jason Kenney left behind a decade-long stint in federal politics to help create the United Conservative Party and bring it to power. Veteran politics-watchers say his high national profile, and strong ties to provincial and federal conservatives, will ensure he remains an influential player on the national political scene.

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Mount Royal University political science professor Duane Bratt said Albertans saw plentiful signs during the campaign of close family ties between the UCP and the federal party — Kenney sharing a campaign stage in a snowstorm with federal Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, Kenney campaigning in Calgary with Laureen Harper, wife of former prime minister Stephen Harper, and the former PM himself pitching his weight behind his former minister on social media.

It all points to the considerable clout Kenney wields in the wider conservative family, Bratt said. The intense national media interest in Alberta's election (certainly more intense than it was in 2015) foreshadows the "huge implications for the rest of the country" of the UCP's win, he added.

So what will the blue team's return to power in Alberta mean to the exercise of power in Ottawa? Here are five ways last night's election could help shape federal politics.

Kenney says Alberta is 'open for business' after UCP win:

Show more UCP leader says his party's victory shows that 'help is on the way and hope is on the horizon.' 1:20

Another province, another federal carbon backstop

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Kenney has said the first bill his new government will introduce will be the "carbon tax repeal act." Once Premier Kenney moves to eliminate the province's $30/tonne carbon levy, Ottawa will have to respond by imposing a federal "backstop" carbon tax in Alberta, as it has done with Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario and New Brunswick

In an email to CBC News, Environment and Climate Change Canada said that if a province changes its carbon pricing system, the federal government's first response would be to review the changes before deciding whether to impose its own federal price.

Marilyne Lavoie, spokesperson for Environment and Climate Change Canada, did not say how quickly the federal government would move to make changes. "The government of Canada will move as quickly as possible in order to minimize a gap in coverage," she said.

Actually, Alberta motorists would still enjoy a bit of a break on the carbon tax following the elimination of the provincial levy. If Alberta's carbon levy is cancelled outright, residents will end up paying the federal backstop levy — $20 per tonne until 2020, $10 less than the current rate.

The fiscal relationship

Kenney has pitched a number of ideas that could affect how money flows between Ottawa and Alberta.

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In the UCP campaign platform, the party promises to advocate for a cut in federal income taxes on Albertans equal to the amount the federal government transfers to Alberta through the Canada Health Transfer and the Canada Social Transfer. The province would raise its tax rates by the same amount; the party vows Albertans wouldn't pay more, but the provincial government would have more control over how income tax revenue collected in Alberta is spent.

In his victory speech, Kenney promised to fight "foreign-funded special interests" like the David Suzuki Foundation, LeadNow and the Tides Foundation, which he accused of leading "a campaign of economic sabotage" against Alberta.

"Your days of pushing around Albertans with impunity just ended. We Albertans are patient and we're fair-minded, but we've had enough of your campaign of defamation and double standards," he told the crowd.

"With this election, we begin to stand up for ourselves, for our jobs and for our future. Today, we Albertans begin to fight back. From this day forward, whenever you lie about how we produce energy, we will tell the truth assertively and we will use every means at our disposal to hold you to account."

Kenney slams Ottawa's handling of pipelines:

Show more UCP leader says Alberta deserves more than the 'faint hope' of 1 pipeline. 1:37

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Kenney has promised to pressure Ottawa for reforms to the Employment Insurance program to better assist Albertans who have lost work during the province's energy sector slump.

Finally, there's the UCP's most provocative fiscal promise: a referendum on equalization payments — federal money redistributed to provinces to help even out the quality of government services nationwide — to give the province a bargaining chip when pressing Ottawa to approve more pipelines.

See you in court, Ottawa

Alberta and Ottawa could soon be spending a lot of time talking through their lawyers.

Kenney has pledged a constitutional challenge of Bill C-69, federal legislation that would change how energy projects are reviewed and approved.

He also has said he'll instruct his new attorney general to launch a formal court challenge to the federal carbon tax if it's imposed in Alberta.

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As part of the UCP's pushback against environmental groups putting pressure on Alberta's energy sector, its election platform said it will challenge the charitable status of these organizations before the Canada Revenue Agency and appeal to the Federal Court to have their charitable status ended, if necessary.

Show more The UCP leader is projected to form a majority government, capping his three-year goal of uniting Alberta's political right. 30:15

Kenney also promised a $10-million litigation fund "to support pro-development First Nations in defending their right to be consulted on major energy projects."

Braced for battle

The policies are one thing, but the tone a new government sets can go a long way in determining how it gets along with its neighbours and other levels of government. With Kenney in office, said McGill University political scientist Daniel Béland, expect more confrontation and discord on the federal-provincial scene.

"Jason Kenney has a much more controversial relationship to intergovernmental relations," said Béland, who heads the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada. "He's very forceful and adversarial to the Trudeau government."

Watch Kenney's full victory speech:

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Show more 'Your days of pushing around Albertans with impunity just ended.' 0:59

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau released a statement in the immediate aftermath of the election, congratulating Kenney.

"Albertans have chosen to elect a majority government led by the United Conservative Party," it read. "I look forward to working with the provincial government to create good, middle class jobs, build infrastructure, and grow the businesses and industries at the heart of Alberta's prosperity so the province can remain competitive in our changing economy."

"Together, we will address issues of importance to Albertans and all Canadians, including supporting canola producers, and taking decisive action on climate change while getting our natural resources to market."

Béland said he expects more heated rhetoric out of Edmonton, anchored in Western alienation, regionalism and nationalism.

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And while no one could describe Kenney as an ideological cousin to Quebec sovereigntists, Béland said, he borrowed some tactics from Quebec's secessionist and nationalist movements.

"It's a conflict-based approach to politics where you frame the issue as a strong conflict between your province and the federal government," he said. "You have to defend the people of your province against the central government, against other provinces and the rest of the country."

Kenney looks around as he sits next to Trudeau during an event marking International Holocaust Remembrance Day and the 70th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz-Birkenau on Jan. 27, 2015, in Ottawa. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)

Relief for federal New Democrats?

It seems counterintuitive, but Béland said he thinks Kenney's win — and Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley's loss — will actually help the federal NDP."For some NDPers outside Alberta, this might be a source of relief," he said.

Notley and federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh don't see eye to eye on the controversial issue of pipelines — particularly the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline, which Notley staked her government on and Singh opposes. Notley's defeat might eliminate that ideological rift within the NDP movement, said Béland.

Bratt disagrees: He said he believes Notley isn't going anywhere and will still be a lingering pain in the side for the federal NDP.

"There's huge frictions between the Alberta NDP and the federal NDP," Bratt said. "Having Notley gone isn't going to really happen to them."

The CBC's David Thurton can be reached on Facebook, Twitter or email him at david.thurton@cbc.ca.

Clarifications This story has been updated from a previous version to remove a composite photo that depicted Jason Kenney and a smokestack with a caption that referred to his intent to kill the Alberta carbon tax but that did not identify the smokestack as being located in British Columbia.

May 29, 2019 6:40 PM ET