











There’s nothing quite like a presidential election year, we know. But for political junkies in Tennessee, 2018 is going to be far more interesting than 2016. There’s an open governor’s race. There’s an open U.S. Senate seat. There are three open congressional seats (and rumors flying about a fourth). There are 18 open state House seats and seven open state Senate seats to date — although some of those House seats are open because the members are running for a Senate seat.

In fact, 2018 could be unprecedented for Tennessee elections in any number of ways.

“I could only find two occasions in state history where there was both an open governor’s race and an open Senate seat in the same year,” says former Tennessee Journal editor Ed Cromer, who covered state politics for decades until his retirement last month.

One of those years, 1994, was a big one for midterm upset elections, as the GOP swept Congress. The other year, 2002, was when Phil Bredesen was first elected governor. It looks like 2018 is poised to combine aspects of both — a Democratic “blue wave” in congressional races, and Bredesen hoping to be the first Democrat to win a statewide election since his re-election bid in 2006.

It seems certain that Democrats will pick up seats nationally this year, but it’s still too early to tell whether the party can make any inroads in our solidly red state. Early polling seems to predict a close Senate race between Bredesen and Republican U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn — but that’s assuming Blackburn wins the primary. (She’s the obvious front-runner, but campaigns are tricky businesses sometimes.) Whether Democrats Karl Dean or Craig Fitzhugh can stay competitive with a Republican in the governor’s race will largely depend on who comes out of that primary victorious — a moderate like Randy Boyd will be tougher to run against than a Trump ally like U.S. Rep. Diane Black.

“It’s going to be even more interesting because it looks like [Democrats] can be competitive in the general races,” Cromer says.

Given the gerrymandered districts in Tennessee, it will be hard for Democrats to make significant gains in the state legislature — but that doesn’t mean it can’t be done. In a special election for former state Sen. Mae Beavers’ seat in December, Democratic political newcomer Mary Alice Carfi lost to state Rep. Mark Pody by a reported 308 votes — in a heavily Republican district that went handily for Trump.

The federal House seats — also gerrymandered districts — will be an even tougher pickup for Democrats, but if Alabama can elect a Democratic senator, nothing is impossible.

Whatever happens this year, whoever jumps into additional races, one thing is certain: A shitload of money is going to be spent on elections in Tennessee, by both parties. By the time November rolls around, you will be so sick of political ads and mailers and robocalls, you will just want it to end.

Until then, there is going to be drama everywhere, nonstop.

