“The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist.” – Verbal Kint

In poker, bluffing masks what cards you hold. On its own, a bluff is often a bad move, but its secondary consequences are what make it so valuable. If you get caught bluffing, you may lose that particular hand, but you have increased the odds of someone calling a future bet when you have a strong hand. In other words, you lost the battle but not the war.



In the NBA, teams can bluff by taking shots from areas of the court that may be considered inefficient. While this results in the short term loss of taking said inefficient shot, it consequently increases the efficiency of shots from more valuable areas by drawing the defense away from those areas.



Mid-range shots are inefficient for two reasons. One is that they’re only worth two points, but another largely ignored reason is that mid-range shots are taken when there’s someone preventing you from getting closer to the basket. If you take a shot from eight feet out, that means there is likely a defender preventing you from taking a shot from any closer. But if you are pulling up from just outside the arc, there is not necessarily a defender preventing you from taking a shot closer to the basket, as is the case with a mid-range shot.



A shot from eight feet away and a dunk are worth the same amount, so it wouldn’t make sense to shoot from the further distance unless a defender was stopping you from shooting from closer. But a shot from just outside the arc is worth three points while taking one step in is worth only two, so taking a shot from three-point range does not imply that a defender is preventing you from shooting closer to the basket. This explains why eight-foot shots go in at the same rate as corner threes which are 22 feet from the basket.



Via: Kirk Goldsberry

So why would a player ever elect to take a shot from seven or eight feet away over a corner three? The only explanation is the bluff of the maneuver. Shooting just a few shots from the mid-range forces teams to cover it, decreasing the amount of defense around the arc and near the basket, the parts of the floor you actually want to take shots from. If you only take shots from these efficient areas, it is the same as never bluffing in poker. You become one dimensional and give up the most valuable weapon against a defense: deception.



The mid-range shot in the NBA will survive not because it is an efficient shot on its own but because it increases the efficiency of shots from ideal areas to spot up from.