The first major showdown in the Big Ten takes place Saturday, when No. 11 Michigan travels to Madison, Wis., to face 13th-ranked Wisconsin. Both clubs are off bye weeks and step up in class from early opposition. The line opened Badgers -3 and has danced around that number with Wisconsin going as high as -4 and as low as 2¹/₂ before settling at the current number of 3¹/₂ with a total of 45.

Since taking over at his alma mater in 2016, Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh is 0-6 straight up and 2-4 against the spread as an underdog. ​Everything would seem to favor Wisconsin on the surface, but this looks like a spot to buy low on Michigan.

In early summer, The Golden Nugget listed the Wolverines as five-point road favorites, and now they sit as 3¹/₂-point underdogs. This is a major line shift in which we can capitalize on a short-term overreaction.

Jon Runyan Jr. returns at left tackle this week after missing the first two games, and dynamic receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones could be back, as well. Harbaugh and new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis may not have shown their cards for this new offense in the first two games. Michigan caught the early bye week at just the right time while Wisconsin just might have had some early momentum stopped after two easy victories.

The play: Michigan, +3¹/₂.