Swansea v Tottenham

Sunday 13:30,

Live on Sky Sports 1.

Match Odds: Swansea [3.3], Tottenham [2.4], The Draw [3.5].

Swansea City and Tottenham Hotspur come into this match in completely different form - Spurs have won four and drawn one of the five Premier League matches since Tim Sherwood took over from Andre Villas-Boas, Swansea haven't won in their last seven league matches, and are at the bottom of the division's form table.

Spurs also boast an excellent record against Swansea since the Jacks' promotion to the Premier League in 2011 - four victories, one draw and no defeats. Looking at the statistics alone, it's easy to see why Spurs are favourites.

Furthermore, Michael Laudrup has a horrendous injury list that will significantly handicap his team selection. The Spanish trio of Michu, Jose Canas and Pablo Hernandez are all out, while Michel Vorm, Roland Lamah, Jonathan de Guzman and Nathan Dyer are doubtful. Jonjo Shelvey will probably move deeper alongside Leon Britton in Canas' absence, with Alex Pozuelo moving inside into the creative attacking role. Dyer or Lamah will probably be risked on the right.

Sherwood is still without Jan Vertonghen, Paulinho and Younes Kaboul, with Sandro and Erik Lamela also expected to miss out. Kyle Walker is another doubt, but should be fit to start. There's no reason to expect much change from the side that defeated Crystal Palace 2-0 last weekend, even if the performance wasn't particularly impressive.

The key to the tactical battle is the difference in formations. Swansea use a 4-2-3-1 while Sherwood's 4-4-2 has proved surprisingly successful so far this season. Clearly, the advantage in the Spurs system is the presence of two centre-forwards, which means Chico Flores and Ashley Williams will have a very difficult test against Emmanuel Adebayor and Roberto Soldado, without the presence of a spare man or a natural holding midfielderto help.

It's difficult to see Swansea keeping a clean sheet, especially if Gerhard Tremmel continues in goal - in the absence of Michel Vorm, he hasn't convinced.

Sherwood has got around the problem of a lack of numbers in the centre by asking Christian Eriksen to drift inside from the left, while Adebayor drops off when Spurs don't have the ball. There's also more structure to the side with Nabil Bentaleb- he holds his position and plays simple sideways balls.

Swansea must capitalise on their advantage in the centre of midfield, although it's debatable whether, with their injury problems, they possess the raw quality to make this count. Their most advanced midfielder, possibly Pozuelo, will be tracked by Bentaleb, while Leon Britton will remain in deep positions. The key to their midfield play is therefore Shelvey, who might get space from his left-of-centre position, and doesn't need a second invitation to drive forward into attack - he could be a key goal threat.

Out wide, the battles are primarily straightforward contests about pace. Sherwood will be confident Walker and Danny Rose have the speed to deal with Routledge and Dyer (or Lamah), and the most interesting wide player is Eriksen, because of his darts inside. He'll look to play through-balls for Spurs' front two, although the knock-on effect is that Swansea right-back Angel Rangel might have space to scamper into, and he could be Swansea's best attacking weapon.

There have been over 2.5 goals in nine of Swansea's last 11 home matches, and in Spurs' last five away matches. There's no reason to think any differently here, and I'll back over 2.5 goals at [2.02].

Whether you look at the form guide, the statistics from previous meetings, the injury list or the tactical battle, Spurs are deserved favourites. They could be happy enough with a draw, though, so back them at [1.75] in the Draw No Bet market.

Recommended bets:

Back Over 2.5 goals at [2.02]

Back Tottenham in Draw No Bet at [1.75]

