Key Iraqi battle to liberate Mosul planned for spring

Jim Michaels | USA TODAY

WASHINGTON – A major offensive to retake Iraq's second-largest city from Islamic State militants is tentatively planned to begin in April or May and will involve 20,000 to 25,000 Iraqi troops, a U.S. Central Command official said Thursday.

The Mosul offensive would be the most decisive ground battle of the Iraq campaign against the Islamic State, which has seized large swaths of the country.

It will also be a key test of U.S.-backed efforts to retrain Iraq's army, much of which collapsed in the face of the Islamic State offensive in June.

The official, who was not authorized to speak by name about the plans during a briefing for reporters, cautioned that the offensive might be delayed if the Iraqi forces are not ready by then or if conditions change.

U.S. officers have urged their Iraqi counterparts to be prepared to launch the offensive before summer, when temperatures regularly exceed 100 degrees, the official said.

U.S. forces will train the main Iraqi brigades involved in the Mosul operation, but U.S. officers have not yet decided whether they will seek permission from the White House to have small teams of American troops accompany some of the Iraqi units involved in the operation.

The White House has ruled out conventional ground forces in Iraq, but the Pentagon has said it might recommend the use of small teams that would accompany Iraqi forces and coordinate air strikes.

U.S. aircraft are currently supporting Iraqi forces with airstrikes against the militants, but American teams are not accompanying Iraqi ground combat units.

However, a military operation in a major city such as Mosul might require tighter coordination between ground forces. Friendly and enemy forces will be close to each other and lines would shift continuously. In addition, the fighting would occur in an urban area amid civilians, requiring airstrikes to have pinpoint accuracy.

The official said current plans call for using about five Iraqi army brigades in the main assault force into the city. Iraqi brigades average about 2,000 troops.

In addition, three Kurdish brigades will establish blocking positions north and west of the city. Another three Iraqi brigades will be held in reserve and Iraqi special forces will be involved.

The Iraqis are also organizing a force of former Mosul police and tribal forces, which might be used to establish order once the city is cleared of militants. The U.S. military will provide intelligence, surveillance and other support.

Iraq's U.S.-backed security forces would face a much smaller enemy force in Mosul of about 1,000 to 2,000 militants, U.S. Central Command estimates. But an enemy in a defensive position with sniper posts and bunkers generally holds an advantage.

The militants also could lay down belts of roadside bombs and other improvised explosives that could hinder attacking forces and make them vulnerable to ambushes.

The Pentagon has described the battle as crucial to prove Iraqi forces are up to the task of driving the militants out of the country.

It's not common to release details about an upcoming offensive, but in the case of Mosul the element of surprise is not at risk. Iraqi and U.S. officials have already signaled they would not allow militants to control the city and without a precise date there is little the enemy could do to prepare.

There could also be an advantage in talking about possible dates as a way of encouraging revolts against the Islamic State within the city and prompting civilians to escape to avoid getting caught in the crossfire.

Iraqi political leaders have urged the government to rescue Mosul residents from their suffering under Islamic State rule. Many residents fled the city, but those that remained face shortages of food, a lack of salaries and harsh rule, said Najim Abed al-Jabouri, the former mayor of Tal Afar, a town near Mosul in northern Iraq.

He said residents are eager to have the city liberated.