New German security analysis has revealed that more than 50 per cent of displaced Syrians in Jordan intend to join the migrant invasion crossing the Mediterranean for a new home in the European Union (EU). They will join a human flood that has already seen record numbers of migrants cross via Turkey to Greece in October as Balkan states ready to close their porous borders indefinitely.

The revelation comes in a confidential situation report on illegal migrant movements by the The Joint Centre for Illegal Migration Analysis and Policy (Gasim) titled ‘Storming The Borders’.

“The migration by sea from Turkey to Greece has risen again in October,” the Gasim report states. It adds there is talk of a “rise of Syrian nationals who come from Lebanon and Jordan” before warning that 50 percent of Syrians in Jordan intend “to break out in the near future” citing Europe as a preferred destination.

A Chatham House research paper shows the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has registered around 630,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan, but the actual number is likely to be much higher.

The influx of Syrians fleeing the war has increased the population in Jordan by at least eight per cent – comparable to the whole of Finland moving to the UK.

According to N24, Europe’s borders are slowly giving way and the German report was commissioned through the services of Gasim to determine the future size and scope of the migrant flow as well as its intended duration.

Gasim, located within the German Federal Police Headquarters in Potsdam, anticipates that in future Greece will have to take a more prominent role in EU border protection and conduct repatriations to Turkey. Given the current backlog in Turkey, the risk remains that refugees could then try again using so-called freighter “ghost ships” to reach Italy.

An “impasse” on the Balkan route to Germany without more pan-EU support could “cause panic and chaos among migrants and authorities”, Gasim says, adding that any further increase in numbers would have to be met by the combined resources of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, the Federal Police, the Federal Foreign Office and the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF).

Simultaneous border closures in Macedonia, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary are another developing risk, according to Gasim. If they did close as a result of the rush of Syrians, the “Greek system of revolving door” movements would grind to a “halt”.

The “organized handover” of migrants along the Balkan route would also be interrupted, says the situation report, resulting in chaos across the rest of the EU.