For the first time since the bookies’ advantage squad failed to beat the gameweek average (39), mustering a paltry 36 points in a low-scoring round.

Commendations go out to Charlie Austin and Diego Costa, who scored 13 and 7 points respectively, but their strike partner, and our captain, Sergio Aguero, so often a reliable source of big points, let us down as he started from the bench and then missed a penalty to return a score of minus 2. Read on as we analyse the attacking and defensive odds for Gameweek 9, aiming to prove that last weekend was just a blip in an otherwise glorious season to date for the bookies’ advantage squad…

Defensive odds

Team Clean sheet odds Chance of a clean sheet Arsenal 1.8 56% Liverpool 54% Everton 2.21 45% Man City 41% West Ham 2.6 38% Leicester 36% Tottenham 2.9 34% Chelsea 34% Stoke 3.1 32% Swansea 3.1 32% Hull 3.5 29% Watford 3.9 26% Man Utd 4.35 23% Crystal Palace 4.5 22% Bournemouth 4.75 21% Burnley 5.1 20% Sunderland 5.5 18% Southampton 7.7 13% Middlesbrough 10 10% West Brom 11 9% NEW TO WEEKLY FANTASY? PICK A FREE TEAM AND COMPETE FOR £10 HERE

Given the paucity of clean sheets this season, especially relative to the attacking riches on offer, we have decided to tweak some of our squad selection rules to improve our point-scoring potential. At the back, we will now select 1 player from each of the top 4 defensive prospects for the gameweek, avoiding double ups, filling our goalkeeper and 3 defensive slots on the pitch, with our bench keeper and 2 bench defenders comprised of the cheapest secure starters (clean sheet potential also factored in) so as to save funds for our attacking players. Our 5th midfield (i.e. first bench) slot will also be taken up by a cheap playing midfielder to allow us to focus our spending on our starting XI.

Topping the bookies’ defensive ranks for Gameweek 9 are Arsenal, who have a 56% chance of keeping a clean sheet when they host Middlesbrough on Saturday. With Boro the joint-3rd lowest scorers in the league (7 goals in 8 games), and the Gunners having kept 2 clean sheets in their last 3 Premier League outings, we draft in Laurent Koscielny, who harbours solid attacking potential in addition to his defensive potential (2 PL goals this season).

Liverpool (54%) are also odds-on for a clean sheet when they welcome West Brom to Anfield for Saturday’s late kick off. The Baggies have netted just 3 times on the road in the league this term and with Jurgen Klopp’s outfit keeping their first clean sheet of the season on Monday against Manchester United, a second shutout in succession is expected for Nathaniel Clyne, who also poses a threat at the other end of the pitch (more key passes than any other defender in the league).

Everton (45%) and Manchester City (41%) rank 3rd and 4th ahead of encounters against Burnley and Southampton respectively. The Toffees will look to continue the defensive resolve they have show so far this season – conceding just 6 goals in 8 games – and add to the 2 clean sheets they have already accrued. Opponents Burnley are the joint-lowest scoring side in the division with 6 goals. City, on the other hand, have been far from sound at the back, registering just one clean sheet, but will take heart from the fact that the Saints have blanked in 2 of their 4 road trips. Maarten Stekelenburg takes his place between the sticks after saving 2 penalties last weekend, whilst John Stones represents the cheapest and most secure route into the Citizens back line.

To fill the remainder of our defensive slots, we opt for the budget friendly Lee Grant (£4.0m – 32%), with Swansea’s Jordi Amat (£4.0m – 32%) and Hull’s Josh Tymon (£4.0m – 29%) accompanying the Stoke stopper.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from Southampton (13% – away to Man City), Middlesbrough (10% – away to Arsenal) and West Brom (9% – away to Liverpool) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Anytime goalscorer odds Chance of scoring Sergio Aguero 1.83 55% Alexis Sanchez 2 50% Daniel Sturridge 2.05 49% Roberto Firmino 2.2 45% Romelu Lukaku 2.2 45% Theo Walcott 2.3 43% Diego Costa 2.4 42% Kelechi Iheanacho 2.5 40% Jamie Vardy 2.62 38% Islam Slimani 2.7 37% Vincent Janssen 36% Sadio Mane 36% Philippe Coutinho 36% Christian Benteke 3 33% Son Heung-Min 3 33% Simone Zaza 3 33% Borja Baston 3 33% Troy Deeney 3.05 33% Michy Batshuayi 3.1 32% Riyad Mahrez 3.1 32% Michail Antonio 3.13 32% Wilfried Bony 3.2 31% Zlatan Ibrahimovic 3.2 31% Raheem Sterling 3.2 31% Dimitri Payet 3.2 31% Callum Wilson 3.25 31% Eden Hazard 3.25 31% Alex Iwobi 3.25 31% Odion Ighalo 3.25 31% Abel Hernandez 3.25 31% Kevin Mirallas 3.4 29% Jermain Defoe 3.45 29% Yannick Bolasie 3.45 29% Ross Barkley 3.45 29% Gylfi Sigurdsson 3.6 28% Mesut Ozil 3.65 27% Charlie Austin 3.75 27% Marko Arnautovic 3.75 27% Erik Lamela 3.75 27% Christian Eriksen 3.75 27% Joshua King 3.85 26% David Silva 4 25% Marcus Rashford 4 25% Gerard Deulofeu 4 25% Santiago Cazorla 4.5 22% Willian 4.7 21% Sam Vokes 4.75 21% Wayne Rooney 4.8 21% Robert Snodgrass 5 20% James Milner 5 20% Junior Stanislas 5.1 20% Leroy Fer 5.25 19% Alvaro Negredo 5.5 18% Nathan Redmond 5.5 18% Duncan Watmore 5.5 18% Andros Townsend 5.8 17% Dusan Tadic 6 17% Salomon Rondon 6 17% Etienne Capoue 6.1 16% Wilfried Zaha 6.5 15% Cristhian Stuani 7 14% Nacer Chadli 7 14% Roberto Pereyra 7 14% Gaston Ramirez 8.5 12% Joe Allen 8.5 12% NEW TO WEEKLY FANTASY? PICK A FREE TEAM AND COMPETE FOR £10 HERE

Sergio Aguero tops the bookmakers’ attacking table this weekend, and straps on our captain’s armband once again, with a 55% chance of finding the net when he takes on Southampton at The Etihad this Sunday. The Saints have been in great defensive form lately, conceding just twice in their last 7 games in all competitions, so City’s explosive talisman, who has scored 11 goals in 8 starts for the Citizens this term, will have to be at his sharpest on Sunday.

Joining Aguero up front in our starting XI for Gameweek 9 are Everton’s in-form Belgian Romelu Lukaku (45%) and Premier League top scorer Diego Costa (42%). Big Rom has been on fire of late, bagging 6 goals in his last 5 league appearances and faces a newly-promoted, yet resolute (only 3 goals conceded in 5 home games), Burnley side at Turf Moor. Meanwhile, down in London, Chelsea’s fiery Spaniard has 7 goals to his name in the league this term and comes up against old boss Jose Mourinho this Sunday.

The bookies rate Daniel Sturridge’s (49%) chances this weekend, but we forgo his services as a result of budget restrictions and a lack of starting security.

We also opt against plumping for the services of Alexis Sanchez (50%) against Middlesbrough because of the emergence of Theo Walcott (43%) as a truly viable alternative. The English speedster has been in scintillating form for the Gunners, striking 8 times in 13 appearances in all competitions, including 3 in his last 2 games. At a saving of £3.5m versus his Chilean counterpart, Walcott provides great value and allows us to select a stronger midfield overall.

Roberto Firmino (45%) and Heung-Min Son (33%) join Walcott in the middle of the park. Liverpool’s Brazilian attacker has scored 3 goals in his last 4 Premier League appearances and will be facing a West Brom side without a clean sheet in 5 games, whilst Tottenham’s South Korean menace travels to Dean Court having notched 4 goals in 5 league outings this season.

Michail Antonio (32%) completes our starting XI for this weekend. West Ham’s marauding right wing-back/winger scored 5 goals in 4 games over the course of August and September but has blanked in each of his last 3. With rock-bottom Sunderland visiting The Olympic Stadium this weekend, Antonio has the perfect chance to find his shooting boots again. Etienne Capoue (16%) completes our squad and takes the first spot on our bench courtesy of his £4.5m price tag, even though his incredible start to the season has tailed off in recent weeks.

Apart from the aforementioned Sanchez, other viable midfield options that we have had to overlook include Liverpool duo Philippe Coutinho and Sadio Mane (both 36%), and Leicester’s Riyad Mahrez (32%), all of whom miss the cut due to budget restraints.

Team of the Week

Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter.