FRIDAY BUZZ COLUMN

In changing managers this week, there was one point Marlins management kept making: Talent is not the problem.

“I still believe and everyone believes this is a good team,” Michael Hill, the Marlins’ president/baseball operations, said Monday. “Ultimately, if that's wrong, that's on me. That's on me and DJ [Dan Jennings], but now he's the manager. That's on me if we misevaluated, but I don't believe that. In my heart, we believe in that roster.

“We're [13th] in batting average. We just haven’t hit when we needed to hit. We're leading the league in defense. Pitching wise, we’ve faltered."

Several pundits --- including former general managers we quoted earlier this spring --- agreed with Hill that this is a better-than-average roster.

But in retrospect, with the Marlins at 16-26, losers of seven in a row and last in the National League East, did they overestimate their talent?

On Wednesday, we posed that question to three longtime, respected big-league scouts who have evaluated the Marlins this season for other teams.

Two said they do not believe the Marlins significantly overestimated their talent (but that they instead have underachieved), adding that the decline of the bullpen couldn’t have been envisioned. Look at the jump in batting average against three key Marlins relievers: Steve Cishek (.237 in 2014 to .308 in 2015), Mike Dunn (.220 to .268), Bryan Morris (.248 to .333).

“It’s a deflating thing when you bank on your closer and he doesn’t deliver,” one of the two scouts said, noting blown leads can skew the perception of a team’s ability.

“Remember, they’re missing Jose Fernandez and they were without Henderson Alvarez for a while. That said, they might have overestimated Christian Yelich [hitting .180]. Nothing with Yelich jumps out that he is going to be a star. And Michael Morse [hitting .206] has been a bust; in San Francisco, he had more of a veteran lineup to protect him. Casey McGehee has struggled in San Francisco [.196], but they miss what McGehee gave them last year, the good professional at-bats.

“But even with all that, they should be ahead of the Phillies. They should be playing .500 until Fernandez gets back.”

The other scout said that on paper “it's a good team. You couldn't have expected Cishek to be down [three] miles per hour and not be able to get left-handed hitters out. Mat Latos [6.12 ERA] has really declined; he looks like an old guy and doesn’t have crispness to his stuff. That big two-handed caveman swing has caught up with Mike Morse, but I don’t know what else they could have done at first.”

But the third scout, who has seen the Marlins a lot, was adamant that Miami overestimated its roster.

“They thought they had a great outfield and that was a terrible overestimation,” the scout said. “Marcell Ozuna has gotten fat and doesn’t move as well offensively or defensively. Yelich is a decent player but it was unrealistic to think that he would all of a sudden become a .300 hitter. For them to enter this season counting on [since-released] Jarrod Saltalamacchia to turn it around was ridiculous.

“Steve Cishek got by for years not only on angle ability but the fact he could throw hard from that angle. Now that he’s lost his velocity, he’s much easier to track and there’s not much difference between his off-speed stuff and fastball. Mike Dunn is a power guy that can’t locate and doesn’t have as much power as he used to. I thought Bryan Morris would be better than this, but there’s a reason Pittsburgh lets guys go.

“Jarred Cosart is a bottom of the rotation guy, nothing special. Coming home was the worst thing that could happen to Mat Latos, with his friends telling him how good he is. He isn’t the pitcher he was. He thinks throwing hard is the answer and it’s not; good hitters can hit fastballs if you don’t locate. Henderson Alvarez’s stuff isn’t good enough to be a No. 1 starter. He’s a two or three.”

That third scout said owner Jeffrey Loria mistakenly “judges guys off their best possible years and overlooks their bad years,” citing John Buck and Saltalamacchia, among others.

“They need more contact hitters,” that scout said. “You need some guys to get on base consistently, move runners over. Dee Gordon obviously can do that and Martin Prado is very good at that. But they don’t have enough guys who can do that. Quality pitchers can get Giancarlo Stanton out. [He’s hitting .239.]

"Morse is a mistake hitter. We talked about Ozuna. They need to play [catcher] J.T. Realmuto [.219] but he’s going to be an average player. It’s an easy lineup to pitch to. They have to self-examine how they build a team.”

And keep this in mind: With the Dodgers’ covering the combined $12.5 million due Dan Haren and Gordon, the Marlins’ out-of-pocket payroll ($68 million) is lowest in baseball. They had interest in Francisco Rodriguez in February but didn’t want to match the Brewers’ two-year, $13 million offer and obviously didn’t know Cishek would implode. Rodriguez is 8 for 8 in saves with a 1.20 ERA. But then again, Houston – which leads the AL West – is 29th in payroll at $70.9 million.



CHATTER

### Not only have the Dolphins distanced themselves from Dion Jordan, who is suspended for the 2015 season, but Jordan also has distanced himself from the Dolphins. “It’s a [expletive/rhymes with ditty] situation,” defensive end Derrick Shelby said. “I’ve texted him a few times but got no response.”

### Ryan Tannehill’s new deal –-- which has $21.5 million guaranteed (according to cap guru Joel Corry), not $45 million as initially reported by national outlets --- dropped his 2016 cap number by $4.5 million to $11.6 million.

But with $155 million in cap commitments (including a $28.6 million hit for Ndamukong Suh in 2016), Miami already is about $3 million over the projected 2016 cap, with Olivier Vernon and Lamar Miller entering free agency next year. So tough decisions await next spring.

As Corry noted, here are Tannehill’s cap numbers in the six years: $4.9 million, $11.6 million, $20.3 million, $19.8 million, $21 million and $19.5 million.

### Even Tannehill’s agent, Pat Dye, said this week that the “Dolphins have to get a little better inside play. We represent Dallas Thomas, too. So Dallas, I’m challenging you.”

Mike Tannenbaum told WMEN-640’s Sid Rosenberg that “we have three young guards competing for two spots” --- front-runner Billy Turner, Thomas and rookie Jamil Douglas.

### Tannehill, speaking to Pro Football Talk Live this week on DeVante Parker: "I like what I see so far. He’s an athletic guy. Fast, strong hands, adjusts to the ball really well. He’s a natural pass catcher, he doesn’t fight the ball and it’s easy for him to make the tough catch. A guy with that range, his body size and natural pass catching ability, I’m really excited to have him and like what I’ve seen thus far.”

### During a Thursday workout Santa Barbara, Cal., Pat Riley and executives from other teams checked out three players in the mix for its pick at No. 10 should Miami not trade it (Arizona small forward Stanley Johnson, Kansas small forward Kelly Oubre and Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky)…. For the first time since 2008, the Heat has no player on any of the top three All-NBA teams. Dwyane Wade got two votes for the third team.… The Heat’s preseason opener was set: Oct. 7 vs. Orlando in Louisville.

### Harry Rothwell, GM of the All-Canes shop near UM’s campus, said Adidas’ five UM football jerseys for this season include, for the first time, a black jersey that UM will wear at least one game.

The new uniforms will be available for fans to purchase in late August and be unveiled to the public in July. Rothwell, who met with Adidas this week, expects the team to wear primarily orange and green at home but said the uniforms naturally will look different than Nike’s.

Please see the last post for details on the possible UM/MLS stadium venture.

Twitter: @flasportsbuzz