New Mexico State Aggies (2-3, 0-1) vs Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-2, 1-0)

Location: Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, NC

Time: 3:30 PM CST

TV: ESPN3

Line: App State -10.5, O/U 55.5

History: App State won first-ever meeting last year, 37-7

New Mexico State fans – and players – are probably tired of talking about “little victories” at this point, but to be honest there are a thousand signs of positivity despite a 2-3 record. Remember, this is an Aggie program that has played one month of football and is already halfway to four wins after winning four in a season only twice in the last 12 years.

The offense is truly humming and is chock full of weapons. The defense isn’t elite but it is light years ahead of last year. This team has held itself up well against what looks to be the hard half of its schedule.

Appalachian State is coming off their bye week and I’m not sure what we really know about them yet. They got dominated by a Georgia team that has dominated everyone not named Notre Dame, then manhandled a bad Savannah State team. They struggled mightily with a Texas State team that hasn’t posed a threat to anyone else, and then repeatedly tripped themselves on special teams and almost toppled a good Wake Forest team at home anyway.

But let’s talk about homecoming for a minute, shall we?

Respect Must Be Earned, Not Given

That’s not a new adage, but the Aggies sure are living it this season. They’re five weeks into the season and are still almost a two-touchdown underdog to App State, despite the Mountaineers having struggled against a Texas State team not nearly as good as the Aggies. But now they enter the worst part of their schedule, something of which coach Doug Martin has asked them to take note.

This week, the Aggies are the homecoming opponent for a Mountaineer team that has had two weeks off. Next week, the Aggies are the homecoming opponent for Georgia Southern, who will have had 10 days off after playing last night. Two weeks later, they’re the homecoming opponent for Texas State.

You went to high school and/or college. You know as well as I do that unless your team is abjectly terrible, you try to schedule homecoming for the week of a likely win, so that a bad football game doesn’t undermine an otherwise fun and eventful week or evening. I say again, the Aggies are the homecoming opponent slash easy win for three of their next four scheduled games.

That’s ok, you keep underestimating them and they’ll keep surprising you. Their much-improved defense is on pace for 25 sacks, while Tyler Rogers has thrown for 300+ yards four times in five games and completed at least 60% of his passes every time. Larry Rose III and Jaleel Scott are both 100-yard games waiting to happen, and Conner Cramer has morphed from backup quarterback to Captain Sideline Catch.

Appalachian State’s offense has taken a definite boom or bust turn this season. Taylor Lamb has thrown four touchdown passes of 50+ yards in the first four games, and those four passes account for one-quarter of the Mountaineers’ passing yards. They’ve also had a pretty dramatic home/road split.

They got dominated between the hedges in Athens, but they also didn’t take their first least against Texas State until the last two minutes of the third quarter. This is a Texas State team that didn’t lead Houston Baptist until the last minute of the first half and trailed for 160 of 180 minutes against their other three FBS opponents.

At home, they pulverized a bad FCS opponent, then faced a strong Wake Forest team and would have won the game if not for a blocked extra point, a missed field goal and then a blocked field goal again as time expired. These Jekyll & Hyde performances make things very difficult to predict, but I would imagine we’ll see the good home version of the Mountaineers since we’ll be watching this game unfold up in Boone.

PREDICTION

This is a tricky one to predict. I definitely think that this potent Aggie passing offense is never out of any game, as NMSU has erased multiple touchdown deficits on numerous occasions this season. I also don’t think the App State offense or defense is good enough to ever get a multiple-touchdown lead, let alone win by that margin.

I’m confident in picking the Aggies to cover this ten-point spread, but a lot less confident in picking them to win because the Fightin’ Yosefs have looked so much better at home than on the road. Good news for the Aggies though is that the Mountaineer defense has struggled in stopping those explosive plays they seem to work their way into with regularity.

New Mexico State 31, App State 30