Fifth of UK men who left education at earliest stage are in vulnerable sectors, says IFS

Male workers with few qualifications will be the hardest hit by fresh barriers to trade erected after Britain leaves the European Union, according to one of the UK’s leading thinktanks.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies said men in manufacturing jobs who had left school with GCSE qualifications or below were the most exposed to curbs on the flow of goods after Brexit.

The IFS said it should be worrying for the government that workers in the most vulnerable parts of manufacturing tended to be older and have skills specific to their current jobs.

“As a result, they may find it particularly difficult to move to as well-paid employment in less adversely affected industries. On average, those with higher earnings are more likely to work in more exposed industries than those with lower earnings,” the IFS said.

The research, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council’s UK in a Changing Europe initiative, found that men were more likely to be adversely affected by trade barriers than women.

Clothing, transport equipment, chemicals and pharmaceutical companies were identified as the most at-risk sectors of manufacturing – which accounts for around 10% of the economy’s output – because they exported such a big proportion of their output to the EU.

Finance exports 12% of its output to the EU and would be the most vulnerable part of the services sector, the IFS said. Many of the lowest-earning workers were employed in service industries such as the care sector, hospitality and retail that tended to export less to the EU, it added.

The IFS said nearly 20% of men with low levels of formal qualifications worked in industries very highly exposed to increased trade barriers with the EU. That compared with 15% of highly educated men and less than 10% of highly educated women.

Men with fewer educational qualifications in Northern Ireland and the West Midlands may be particularly exposed. While about a fifth of low-educated men worked in industries seen as highly exposed in the UK as a whole, this rose to a quarter in Northern Ireland and the West Midlands.

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Agnes Norris Keiller, a co-author of the report, said: “If barriers to trade with the EU increase, particularly the sort of ‘non-tariff’ barriers created by customs checks and regulatory divergence, then some sectors of the economy will be affected more than others.

“Parts of the manufacturing sector are likely to be hardest hit. As a result, the jobs or wages of men with low formal qualifications working in certain manual occupations may be under particular threat. These are the sorts of workers who are most likely to find it hard to adapt and to find new roles that are equally well paid elsewhere.

“Conversely, the UK agriculture industry could gain from trade barriers as households switch from demanding EU food products to ones made in the UK. But these gains would be at the expense of UK consumers, and these industries are a small proportion of overall employment.”