The Trump administration seems confident that consumers will not feel pain from its escalating trade war with China. “Because it’s spread over thousands and thousands of products, nobody’s going to actually notice it at the end of the day,” Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told CNBC on Tuesday, when asked about the administration’s latest round of tariffs on Chinese imports.

But a pain-free trade war with China is nearly impossible. For American consumers, prices have already risen on some products that the administration targeted for tariffs this year — most notably, washing machines, which were subjected to steep tariffs in January.

It is true, as Mr. Ross noted earlier in his CNBC interview, that the administration has thus far devised such tariffs to minimize sticker shock on retail store shelves for American customers. The list of imports set to be “tariffed,” as President Trump proclaimed on Monday, still does not include T-shirts, smartphones or many other popular products that American stores import from China. The $200 billion list unveiled on Monday will start with a tax of 10 percent and rise to 25 percent in the New Year, a move that should mute the effect of this round of tariffs on holiday shoppers.

Next year, though, those products will almost certainly grow noticeably more expensive. China has already vowed to retaliate, raising the possibility that Mr. Trump will announce, as soon as this week, that he plans to impose tariffs on another $267 billion in Chinese imports — basically, everything Americans buy from their largest trading partner.