Too much, too soon. And please slow down.

This is the consensus of a broad business coalition which has released an economic impact analysis of Ontario’s proposed changes to minimum wages and other labour reforms. Under Bill 148, minimum wages would rise from $11.40/hour to $14/hour on January 1, 2018 and to $15/hour on January 1, 2019.

“We’ve run the numbers and it’s clear that this is too much, too soon,” says Karl Baldauf, vice president of policy and government relations at the Ontario Chamber of Commerce and spokesperson for the Keep Ontario Working Coalition (KOW). The changes presented in Bill 148, he says, will have dramatic unintended consequences that include putting close to 185,000 jobs at risk in the first two years. Owners of small businesses are likely to be impacted five times more than large businesses. He predicts everyday consumer goods and services will increase by thousands of dollars for each and every family in Ontario.

The coalition is asking the Ontario government to slow down implementation to provide appropriate offsets that will protect jobs. On scheduling, the government is advised to look for sector-based exemptions because one-size-fits-all solutions don’t work.

Jan VanderHout, chair of the Ontario Fruit and Vegetable Growers’ Association, agrees.

“I am quite concerned about the impact on Ontario growers of such a large increase in minimum wage in such a short time,” he says. “I believe that in time we can demand more from the marketplace through gradual increases but to expect returns to increase at the pace of minimum wage is unrealistic. It is critical that some means of mitigating the impact of the January 1st minimum wage increase be found before growers switch to fewer labour-intensive crops or potentially stop growing all together.”

While dozens of economists have publicly supported a $15 minimum wage, the coalition argues “that letter of opinion is not an economic analysis.”

The coalition of 15 associations includes participants such as Canadian Federation of Independent Grocers, Food and Beverage Ontario, Ontario Federation of Agriculture and the Ontario Chamber of Commerce.

The analysis was performed by the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis (CANCEA). For the full report, go to: http://bit.ly/2vCLhAw

Source: Keep Ontario Working Coalition August 14, 2017 news release.