The New Democrats are a long way from their historic breakthrough in the 2011 federal election under Jack Layton. The party lost in its bid for power under Tom Mulcair in 2015 and now — under leader Jagmeet Singh — the New Democrats are struggling.

The NDP’s fundraising has been anemic and its support in the polls has slipped. Outside of Quebec, where its support has collapsed, the NDP could be pushed out of some of its traditional strongholds in this fall’s election. But the party also says it believes it could make inroads into new territory, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area.

How the New Democrats do in this election won’t matter solely to the NDP itself. With other parties circling the party’s vulnerable seats, its performance also could help decide who forms the next government.

What the NDP’s hoping for ...

New Democrats say they’re optimistic about the odds of some of their former MPs winning back the seats they lost four years ago. They’re also targeting diverse ridings where they think Jagmeet Singh, the country’s first visible-minority leader of a major party, could attract new voters to the NDP.

Atlantic Canada

The New Democrats were shut out in Atlantic Canada in 2015 and have struggled in a series of provincial elections since. The party is hoping to regain some of the seats it lost in the region four years ago, but it is facing an uphill climb.

The NDP’s return to Newfoundland and Labrador depends on Jack Harris, who won St. John’s East for the party in 2008 and 2011. It was a close race in 2015, when the Liberals’ Nick Whalen beat Harris by just 1.4 percentage points — a rare win for the Liberals in a riding that mostly has voted Conservative in the past. But the Conservatives captured just 6.5 per cent of the vote here in 2015, suggesting the contest will again be a two-horse race between Whalen and Harris.

St. John’s East — Popular vote 2015 federal election

LIB 46.7 NDP 45.3 CON 6.5 GRN 1.1

Greater Toronto Area

The NDP has never had much success in the wider suburbs around Toronto, but the party is hoping that Jagmeet Singh will change that. The New Democrats have had more success in downtown Toronto in the past, though they lost all of their seats in the city in the last election. The party is hopeful it can win some of them back.

Davenport, a densely-populated riding where nearly half of commuters take public transit to work, is a key target for the NDP in downtown Toronto, where the party was shut out in 2015. It has been a swing riding at the provincial level over the last decade; the provincial NDP took it by a margin of 42 points in 2018. Federally, however, Davenport was solidly Liberal from 1962 until 2011, when the NDP’s Andrew Cash made a breakthrough. The Liberals’ Julie Dzerowicz wrestled the riding back in 2015 by a margin of just three points; she’ll face off against Cash again in October.

Davenport — Popular vote 2015 federal election

LIB 44.3 NDP 41.4 CON 10.6 GRN 3.1

Two-thirds of the population in Brampton East is South Asian, according to the 2016 census. It’s where NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh was twice elected to the Ontario legislature, and where his brother Gurratan won for the NDP in the 2018 provincial election. If Singh is going to deliver previously untapped voters to the NDP, then he has to win here. The fact that the Liberals won’t have an incumbent on the ballot improves the NDP’s chances.

Brampton East — Popular vote 2015 federal election

LIB 52.3 CON 23.5 NDP 23.0 GRN 1.1

Hamilton is usually friendly territory for New Democrats. The federal party won Hamilton East–Stoney Creek in 2006, 2008 and 2011, before former Hamilton mayor Bob Bratina took it for the Liberals in 2015. If the New Democrats are going to reconnect with their labour base, then this riding — in which about 16 per cent of the labour force works in manufacturing — should be high on their list.

Hamilton East–Stoney Creek — Popular vote 2015 federal election

LIB 39.0 NDP 32.7 CON 25.3 GRN 2.6

British Columbia

B.C. could be key to the NDP having a good election. It is the province in which its support in the polls has held up the most and it is the only place in which the New Democrats form the provincial government.

After Brampton East, Surrey–Newton has the most South Asians and Indian immigrants of any riding in the country. While the New Democrats have had some individual wins in the region — they won a portion of this riding in 2011 and the provincial NDP holds the area — this is another riding that the party is hoping it can win thanks in part to Jagmeet Singh’s appeal. The riding has swung between the Liberals, New Democrats and Conservatives for quite some time, but one constant has been Liberal incumbent Sukh Dhaliwal: win or lose (he lost twice), he has carried the party’s banner here in every election since 2004.

Surrey–Newton — Popular vote 2015 federal election

LIB 56.0 NDP 26.1 CON 15.7 GRN 2.2

... and what the NDP worries about

The NDP has fewer incumbents running for re-election than other parties, putting those seats at risk. And even where the NDP does have incumbents, the party can’t take anything for granted.

Southwestern Ontario

The urban areas in southwestern Ontario tend to be closely-fought three-way battles between the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP. The New Democrats are hoping they will not end up on the bottom of that pile, particularly in ridings where they lack incumbents.

One of the ridings where the lack of an incumbent could hurt the NDP is London–Fanshawe, where four-term NDP MP Irene Mathyssen has opted to take her name off the ballot. A bellwether both federally and provincially until recently, this was a close three-way race in 2015 and both the Liberals and Conservatives will be looking to take advantage of the NDP’s lack of incumbency here. That’s part of the reason why that controversial Saudi LAV deal is a particularly thorny issue for both parties — those LAVs are built in London–Fanshawe.

London–Fanshawe — Popular vote 2015 federal election

NDP 37.8 LIB 31.4 CON 27.2 GRN 2.9

The NDP’s win in Essex in 2015 was a significant breakthrough, as it was one of the few ridings where the party’s support actually increased over 2011. With just over a fifth of the labour force in the manufacturing sector — one of the highest rates in the country — the future of the automobile industry and the re-negotiated free trade agreement with the United States are both major issues in this riding. The contest is largely between the NDP and the Conservatives in Essex, but the resonance of the NDP’s criticisms of the Liberal government’s approach to free trade will be tested.

Essex — Popular vote 2015 federal election

NDP 41.4 CON 35.7 LIB 20.9 GRN 1.9

Manitoba and Saskatchewan

The NDP holds seats in both the northern parts of these two provinces and in the urban centres of Winnipeg, Saskatoon and Regina. To be a national party with representation across the country, the New Democrats will need to hold some of these seats.

One of the ridings with the youngest voters in the country, Churchill–Keewatinook Aski has the most residents who claim First Nations identity (70.3 per cent) of any riding in Canada. In 2015, the Liberals nearly took this riding away from two-time NDP leadership candidate Niki Ashton by making significant inroads among Indigenous voters. The judgment of those voters on the government’s approach to reconciliation likely will decide this fall whether the Liberals are able to take a seat they’ve only won twice over the last 65 years. Judy Klassen, who scored an upset for the Manitoba Liberals in the 2016 provincial election here, will be carrying the federal party’s banner this time.

Churchill–Keewatinook Aski — Popular vote 2015 federal election

NDP 45.0 LIB 42.0 CON 10.3 GRN 1.8

Voters in Elmwood–Transcona like to keep things close. The NDP’s Daniel Blaikie beat Conservative incumbent Lawrence Toet by a margin of just 61 votes in 2015. Toet defeated the NDP’s Jim Maloway by 300 votes in 2011. But that Toet win was the exception — the only time since 1979 that the riding or its predecessors hadn’t picked a New Democrat. Blaikie and Toet will be facing off again this fall and, with the party slumping in the polls, the NDP might find it difficult to keep its only toehold in Winnipeg.

Elmwood–Transcona — Popular vote 2015 federal election

NDP 34.1 CON 34.0 LIB 29.5 GRN 2.4

The New Democrats in Regina and Saskatoon were hamstrung for years by rural-urban ridings that combined parts of the cities with wide sections of conservative-voting rural areas, but that changed in 2015 when the two cities got urban ridings of their own. That helped the NDP win in a close three-way race in Regina–Lewvan, but the seat could be up for grabs now after the party booted Erin Weir from caucus for allegedly inappropriate behaviour. Without an incumbent, and with a portion of the local party apparatus having backed Weir throughout the dispute, the New Democrats look hobbled — which presents an opportunity to the Conservatives.

Regina–Lewvan — Popular vote 2015 federal election