Iowa Poll: Clinton leads, but Sanders draws near

Liberal revolutionary Bernie Sanders, riding an updraft of insurgent passion in Iowa, has closed to within 7 points of Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential race.

She's the first choice of 37 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers; he's the pick for 30 percent, according to a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll.

But Clinton has lost a third of her supporters since May, a trajectory that if sustained puts her at risk of losing again in Iowa, the initial crucible in the presidential nominating contest.

This is the first time Clinton, the former secretary of state and longtime presumptive front-runner, has dropped below the 50 percent mark in four polls conducted by the Register and Bloomberg Politics this year.

Poll results include Vice President Joe Biden as a choice, although he has not yet decided whether to join the race. Biden captures 14 percent, five months from the first-in-the-nation vote Feb. 1. Even without Biden in the mix, Clinton falls below a majority, at 43 percent.

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"This feels like 2008 all over again," said J. Ann Selzer, pollster for the Iowa Poll.

In that race, Clinton led John Edwards by 6 percentage points and Barack Obama by 7 points in an early October Iowa Poll. But Obama, buoyed by younger voters and first-time caucusgoers, surged ahead by late November.

In this cycle, Sanders is attracting more first-time caucusgoers than Clinton. He claims 43 percent of their vote compared to 31 percent for Clinton. He also leads by 23 percentage points with the under-45 crowd and by 21 points among independent voters.

Sanders, a Vermont U.S. senator, has become a liberal Pied Piper in Iowa not as a vote against Clinton, but because caucusgoers genuinely like him, the poll shows. An overwhelming 96 percent of his backers say they support him and his ideas. Just 2 percent say they're motivated by opposition to Clinton.

Back in January, half of likely Democratic caucusgoers were unfamiliar with Sanders, who has been elected to Congress for 25 years as an independent. He has jumped from 5 percent support in January to 30 percent. Clinton, a famous public figure for decades, has dropped in that period from 56 percent to 37 percent.

"These numbers would suggest that she can be beaten," said Steve McMahon, a Virginia-based Democratic strategist who has worked on presidential campaigns dating to 1980.

"But," he added, "it's still early, and Hillary Clinton's done this before. She knows what it takes to win."

If Clinton survives the caucus and primary gauntlet to become the nominee, nearly two-thirds of likely Democratic caucusgoers say they're "mostly confident" she can win the general election. Twenty-four percent are mostly nervous, and 9 percent aren't sure.

Wild card: Will Biden decide to join race?

The open question is what Biden will see in these results. Will he see a teetering front-runner in distress? Or that Sanders has already consolidated a big share of the support available to a Clinton alternative?

In a May Iowa Poll, just before his eldest son, Beau, died of brain cancer at age 46, 8 percent of likely caucusgoers listed Biden as their first choice for president.

A Biden bid also would open a two-front war for Clinton. If he were to declare a candidacy, he'd almost certainly get a bump in his numbers.

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The vice president saps support from both Clinton and Sanders, the poll shows. Without Biden in the mix, Clinton is at 43 percent and Sanders is at 35 percent.

"So, Biden takes 6 points from Clinton and 5 points from Sanders," Selzer said.

The Iowa Poll of 404 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Aug. 23-26 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Voters shrug about Clinton email controversy

What's driving Clinton's downward slide and Sanders' surge?

"Voters right now are flocking to the angry, authentic outsiders and moving away from the cautious or calculating establishment insiders," McMahon said.

Clinton has been dogged by media questions and an FBI investigation about whether her use of a private, home-based email server while secretary of state undermined U.S. security.

In Iowa on Wednesday, she said use of personal email "clearly wasn't the best choice." But Clinton, who says voters don't bring up the issue, downplays the investigation as "about politics."

Selzer said Clinton's right about the unimportance of the email controversy at this point in the caucus race — 76 percent of her supporters and 61 percent of all likely Democratic caucusgoers say it's not important to them. The emails are at least somewhat important to 28 percent of all likely caucusgoers, with an additional 10 percent saying the issue is very important.

"The stuff with the emails — that doesn't bother me," said poll respondent Craig Glassmeyer, 50, a screen printer from Cedar Rapids. "It's just being politicized, as well as Benghazi. How could it have been her fault, you know? They really don't want Hillary in there, and so they're fighting as hard as they can to block her nomination."

Still, Glassmeyer is one of the 14 percent who say they're not sure who their choice is yet or are uncommitted. He's trying to decide between Clinton and Sanders, "who may be too liberal for me," he said.

No traction for 3 lesser-known hopefuls

Meanwhile, three candidates are in danger of not meeting viability thresholds in the Democratic caucuses.

Martin O'Malley, who campaigns on the progressive results he achieved as Baltimore's mayor and Maryland's governor, has 3 percent support.

Jim Webb, a former U.S. senator from Virginia who stresses his military experience as a Marine and later a Pentagon official under President Ronald Reagan, is at 2 percent.

And Lincoln Chafee, an ex-Republican and former Rhode Island governor with an anti-war message, gets 1 percent.

The way the Democrats run their caucuses, voting isn't a silent, private-ballot experience. Instead, neighbors gather in batches across the state for a dynamic, public free-for-all, where the frontrunners' fans noisily recruit less popular candidates' backers to join their team. If a candidate can't muster a viability percentage, usually 15 percent, his or her backers must regroup with one of the viable candidates or remain uncommitted.

O'Malley's lackluster performance in the new poll perplexes Kedron Bardwell, a politics professor at Simpson College in Indianola.

"Having seen him speak with solid depth on issues, I'm surprised O'Malley isn't getting more traction in Iowa," Bardwell said. "Maybe his style is just too subdued for the bombastic and polarized pre-2016 American politics."

Sanders supporters really, really like him

But the love for Sanders runs deep, the poll shows.

Selzer noted that 39 percent of likely caucusgoers say their feelings about Sanders are very favorable, with another 34 percent saying mostly favorable. Only 8 percent have a negative view of Sanders.

Contrast that with Clinton: Fewer feel very favorable about her (27 percent), and twice as many view her negatively (19 percent).

Still, she's doing better than in fall 2007, when she was viewed negatively by 30 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers.

Poll respondents say they're wild about Sanders because of his authenticity, refusal to run a negative campaign and his big ideas, which include government-paid college tuition and health care for all.

"He doesn't sugarcoat anything, and he has answers to actual questions. He doesn't just use talking points," said Deb Bolfik, a 41-year-old grocery store worker from Des Moines who intends to support Sanders in the caucuses.

Austin Haywood, a 27-year-old appraiser who lives in Adel, said he supports Sanders because the senator holds rivals accountable for decisions they made in the past but doesn't attack them. "I think that's what people in America really want to see," Haywood said. "As fun as it is to watch 'Real Housewives: Political Edition,' people really want to see the truth, and they really want to see what's actually going on. They don't want to see this sideshow that's become our political process."

Asked about Clinton, Haywood said: "I think she's fine. Personally I don't like her as my candidate, not necessarily for the reasons that the media is currently portraying. I think she's getting a terrible rap right now."

Haywood, who works in the financial industry, said he's seen the negative effects of repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, which barred commercial banks from engaging in investment banking. He believes Clinton doesn't take strong enough stances on breaking up big banks or opposing the Citizens United court ruling, which opened the floodgates to unlimited amounts of money in campaign politics.

Sanders does, Haywood said.

Democrats on Trump

Likely Democratic caucusgoers take a dim view of businessman Donald Trump, whose unorthodox campaign has roiled the Republican field.

85 percent view him unfavorably, including 63 percent who say their views are very unfavorable.

14 percent view him favorably.

1 percent aren't sure.

— Jason Noble contributed to this report

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Aug. 23-26 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 400 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 404 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 2,975 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state's voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list. Interviews were administered in English.

Questions based on the subsamples of 404 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 400 likely Republican caucus attendees each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

For additional technical information about this study, contact Michelle Yeoman at myeoman@selzerco.com.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register is prohibited.