After initial analysis determined a new GO station key to Mayor John Tory’s SmartTrack plan should not be built, the provincial transit agency invited city officials to improve the outcome of the study days before a crucial vote.

Internal emails, obtained by the Star through freedom of information requests, show city planners worked at the direction of senior city managers to change the modelling and provide Metrolinx with an alternative analysis that took a far more optimistic view of how many people would live and work close to the station at Lawrence East.

The Metrolinx board voted in June 2016 to approve the station, the emails reveal, despite the fact that the initial analysis Metrolinx had commissioned concluded it was “not recommended for further study or consideration.”

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City spokesperson Wynna Brown, in response to the Star’s questions, said in an email that staff made a “formal submission to Metrolinx” in order to “address potential gaps” in the agency’s initial analysis.

At a meeting this week, council will vote on whether to move forward with the $1.46-billion “SmartTrack” plan, which includes a $155-million Lawrence East stop and five others that would be added to GO lines as part of broader expansion plans already underway by Metrolinx. Lawrence East, which was earlier estimated to cost just $23 million, is a key part of Tory’s promise for new transit in Scarborough.

Before the board vote, an initial business case commissioned by Metrolinx had determined the proposed station met some planning objectives but would not attract enough new riders to offset the projected number of passengers who would stop taking GO as a result of the increased travel time caused by adding the station to the line.

Tory met with Metrolinx on May 31, 2016. A day later, then Metrolinx CEO Bruce McCuaig reported to colleagues that after discussions with the mayor, “the one outstanding station location is Lawrence … The city would like to include it; Metrolinx believes there is not a strong case for its inclusion.”

McCuaig said the two parties had agreed to take another look.

City officials met with Metrolinx 10 days later. McCuaig reported to the chair of the agency’s board, Rob Prichard, that the city had agreed to provide a “strategic narrative on how a station at Lawrence contributes to city-building,” as well as suggested revisions to the assumptions Metrolinx had used about future development around the station, according to earlier emails obtained by the Star.

McCuaig didn’t appear to believe the city’s submission would change the outcome, however. “The challenge is that the city’s analysis is not all that different from ours, showing the location is not a high-performing (one).”

Meanwhile, city planners took up the challenge of improving the analysis, the emails show. On June 10, 2016, the city’s director of transit and transportation, James Perttula, told colleagues deputy city manager John Livey had asked them to “undertake a couple of key tasks,” including “strengthen(ing) the strategic case” for Lawrence and reviewing the modelling assumptions Metrolinx had used “to see how the economic case might be adjusted.”

Emails show city staff looking to make the analysis appear better, despite what they found. At one point, they compared the number of people who would board trains at a new Lawrence East stop to those expected to board at the planned Finch station. But after modelling showed the boardings at Lawrence would be half those at Finch, senior transportation planner Gary Papas suggested ditching the comparison, writing to his colleagues: “I was hoping the boardings would be similar.”

On June 15, 2016, the Metrolinx board met behind closed doors and, on advice from agency staff, endorsed a list of 10 stations that didn’t include Lawrence East. The same day, McCuaig requested Livey and former chief planner Jennifer Keesmaat make the case for the stop, emails show.

“Since the meeting with the mayor on May 31st, we have collectively invested significant time and energy in evaluating” Lawrence, but Metrolinx still did not have “sufficient rationale” to include it. But he assured them Metrolinx was not proposing to “reject” the stop and that it could still be a potential site in the future.

On June 16, 2016, the city wrote a four-page analysis on Livey’s letterhead outlining its own modelling that showed the station performed much better. It’s unclear if the letter was sent.

Metrolinx’s planning process was upended the same day the letter was drafted. As the Star has previously reported, the Transportation Ministry shocked Metrolinx officials by sending the agency news releases that showed then transportation minister Steven Del Duca planned to announce Lawrence and three other stops the agency hadn’t approved.

That set off discussions between Metrolinx and the ministry. McCuaig took the lead in altering agency reports to the board to recommend Lawrence and another stop the minister wanted. The Metrolinx board voted publicly on June 28 to approve Lawrence as part of the expanded network.

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Since 2016, the city’s projections for Lawrence have continued to improve. According to the 2016 Metrolinx report, there were then almost 7,000 people living and 8,500 jobs in an 800-metre radius around the station. The original analysis projected those numbers would grow to 8,600 people and about the same number of jobs by 2031.

The city has countered that several “soft sites” around the station had more potential for development despite it historically being a slow growth area. Faced with the challenge of justifying the station, in their 2016 analysis city staff projected upward of 10,200 people and 8,900 jobs by 2031.

The latest numbers, provided by the city in 2017, predicted 12,000 residents in the area — triple the population growth assumed by Metrolinx.

The new city numbers also predict jobs near the station would decrease, to 6,000. The city did not explain this change when asked by the Star last week.

Metrolinx, which included the new figures in its latest report, did not verify the numbers on its own.

The kind of growth projected could require council to change its policy about protecting employment areas, where several of the soft sites are located. But Brown, the city spokesperson, told the Star employment districts “will be protected and promoted exclusively for economic activity.”

The latest projections still fall well below provincial guidelines that say the minimum density to support an express rail station is 150 people and jobs per hectare. Even the city’s most optimistic projection has a density of 90 people and jobs per hectare.

According to Metrolinx, a site not achieving the density target is not a reason to preclude a new station, and many stations on the GO network don’t meet the target.

However, a consultant hired by the city questioned why Metrolinx would approve Lawrence given the agency’s own analysis of low population and job density in the area and limited real estate demand. Reducing fares or increasing how often trains stop at the station “will not change this,” he wrote in August 2016.

“So what argument is there that SmartTrack station should be built here, other than to replace the one that will be lost with the decommissioning of the (Scarborough RT),” said Sheldon Frankel, from the firm HDR.

While the city originally projected just over 2,000 daily boardings, that number has since more than doubled.

Brown said the ridership estimates increased because the city assumed the Scarborough subway extension had been reduced from a three-stop to a one-stop plan, as currently envisioned, removing a proposed subway station at Lawrence. The city’s model also placed greater emphasis on the effects of integrating TTC and GO fares.

Metrolinx spokesperson Anne Marie Aikins said all municipalities where stations were proposed were given the chance to “submit updates to planned growth and development around each station site, including local transit improvements.”

The latest Metrolinx analysis also makes several new assumptions, including the use of express trains, that have improved the performance of Lawrence and several of the new stations.

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