As Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia, struggle for life, it should not need saying that any collateral damage suffered by England football fans this summer at the World Cup as a result of the political fallout is a relatively minor concern. But we should also remember there are supporters of the national team who in France during Euro 2016 were subject to horrific assaults, including life-changing brain injuries in two cases, at the hands of Russian hooligans who had the barely concealed encouragement – and quite possibly the military training – of the Putin regime.

There were already good reasons not to make the trip to Russia, even for people like me who have not missed a major finals in Europe since 1990. But thousands of England fans have spent non-refundable four-figure sums on getting to this summer’s World Cup and the chances that they will not, in fact, be following their team in Kaliningrad, Volgograd and beyond have certainly increased.

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When Russian hooligans attacked the English around the match between the two countries in Marseille in 2016, the French authorities commented on the highly organised nature of about 150 of the attackers, some of whom wore gum shields and mixed martial arts gloves. There were, sadly, plenty of English troublemakers, too – but there was a clear distinction between the oafish drunks on one side and the organised Russians, with metal bars and hammers, slicing achilles tendons to stop victims fleeing. And while the English hooligans were rightly condemned by the British authorities, the Russian response was very different.

The MP Igor Lebedev, a member of the executive committee of the Russian Football Union (RFU), tweeted about hooligans who launched an attack inside the stadium at the end of the 1-1 draw: “I don’t see anything wrong with the fans fighting. Quite the opposite, well done lads, keep it up!” The notorious far-right hooligan leader Alexander Shprygin had to be deported twice, after being allowed by the Russians to return to France.

The trouble was no surprise. Though I went to England’s three other games at Euro 2016, I gave Marseille a miss, in large part on safety grounds. England had last played Russia in October 2007, when visiting supporters in Moscow were set upon at random. Friends who went to the game reported taking cover under a hail of missiles. Matches involving Russian clubs, whether domestic or in European competition, are often surrounded by a scale of violence we have never seen in the UK.

The Russian authorities say there ​has been a crackdown on hooligans ​in the run-up to the World Cup but given that they condoned the scenes in Marseille it is hard to take such claims seriously. Organised gangs regularly stage pitched battles; in September last year, a Spartak Moscow fan fired a flare 60 metr​e​s at the referee during a Champions League game with the Slovenian side Maribor; in February, Spartak hooligans fought on the streets of Bilbao before a Europa League game.

Racism is rife and normalised, with offensive chants and bananas being thrown on to the pitch commonplace. While Russian clubs have frequently been sanctioned by Uefa for racism in European competition, the RFU has suspended black players for their outraged responses to the abuse. In February, Spartak Moscow uploaded a picture of their Brazilian players training in the sun to Twitter, with a caption reading: “See how chocolates melt in the sun.”

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Of course, the decision to award the World Cup to Russia was taken by Fifa, a body that has since been ripped apart by arrests and convictions for corruption. But unless the response to Russian activities from Salisbury to hacking escalates dramatically (England’s non-participation is now a 16-1 bet, down from 50-1) then many England fans will be there, risking a repeat of the scenes in Marseille.

I won’t be though – at least probably not. Part of me thinks it’s not worth the risk and that by going I would be condoning the idea of staging the finals in Russia, which should be anathema. Yet after more than 25 years of watching England fail around the world, I would hate to miss out on success. If they make the semi-finals then I’ll be on a plane. I’ll board it, though, knowing that it really didn’t take events in Salisbury to call into question the suitability of the hosts for the 2018 World Cup.

A Manchester United fan travelling to Rostov for a Europa League game last year was shocked to find printed advice in his hotel room on what to do if he was kidnapped. By staging a World Cup in Russia, Fifa has taken hostage my hopes, and those of every England football fan.

• Philip Cornwall is a sport production editor for the Guardian