If Carson means to carry on after his poor showing in Iowa, this may be an attempt to generate sympathy, or at least coverage. If he is getting out, it may pave the way for his support of another candidate. It is also possible that Carson, who is a fish out of water in politics (e.g. going home to get “clean clothes” during a critical campaign week), is simply using this as a personal rationalization for his Iowa failure.

In any event, it remains to be seen whether the incident hurts Cruz. He already ceded some momentum coming out of Iowa with a rambling, ineffective victory speech and with the media highlighting Sen. Marco Rubio’s strong showing. He does not want to Iowa win to be transformed into a negative, an example of winning at any cost and a reflection of his flawed character.

AD

AD

Donald Trump certainly hopes it does. He is fanning the flames, telling voters in New Hampshire, “What he did to Ben Carson was terrible. When they said Ben Carson is out of the race and come vote for him, I thought it was terrible.” He also brought up the phony mailer the Cruz campaign sent out. “I think what he did to Ben Carson was terrible. I think when he did the voter violation form, I thought that was terrible.” Today he tweeted, “Based on the fraud committed by Senator Ted Cruz during the Iowa Caucus, either a new election should take place or Cruz results nullified.” Well, that won’t happen, but it may make for a super-charged debate.

Unlike his birther nonsense, Trump is clever in pointing to the Cruz campaign’s conduct. Cruz is already being painted as a “calculating,” disingenuous politician, a hypocrite who slams politicians but acts in hyper-political ways to advance his own interests. To the extent the latest incidents fit a pattern, Cruz may find himself playing defense and his unfavorable ratings heading higher.

Carson is also right in pointing to Cruz’s management skills. Cruz has no executive experience to speak of, making his campaign the most significant organization he has managed. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in the bridge scandal was accused of creating a “climate” in which people felt comfortable practicing dirty tricks. His lack of awareness of what his people were up to likewise tarnished his reputation as a strong executive. Cruz is now in a similar spot. If, like Christie, he takes all questions and cleans house of troublemakers, he may come out even stronger. If not, the problem is likely to continue.

AD

AD

The issue will surely come up in the debate. And once again, Cruz’s own words may come back to haunt him. In comparing the IRS scandal to President Richard Nixon’s dirty tricks and decrying attacks on political opponents, he made clear that the person at the top of an organization bears responsibility. (“No politician has the right to use the machinery of the Executive Branch to target their political enemies. When Richard Nixon did it, it was wrong and he rightly resigned from the presidency in disgrace for his abuse of power.”) He is likely to be asked why, like the president, no one in his organization was fired for dirty tricks and what tone he is setting in his campaign. If he reacts indignantly or defensively, the issue will only drag on. He’d be wise before the debate to fire the perpetrators of these shenanigans. During the next debate, he might do something out of character — express remorse and humility.