At the halfway point of the 2015 season, the Detroit Tigers sit with a .500 record at 44-44. They entered the All-Star break on a three game losing streak, one of the most demoralizing this team has seen this year. However, it's too early in the season to give up on playoff hope. The Tigers still have the potential to be one of the best teams in all of baseball. Let's look at some key team statistics to see where they have succeeded and struggled so far.

Run Scoring

Through the All-Star break, this is the Tigers offense compared to the rest of baseball:

Stat All MLB Rank BA 1st OBP 1st BABIP 1st wRC+ T-1st wOBA 2nd SLG 3rd Runs Scored 3rd Positional WAR 5th

All of these impressive offensive numbers are good for 4.52 runs scored per game, third best overall, even with Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera both missing extended periods of time. When Cabrera returns later this season, the biggest bats in the lineup will be together and healthy for the first time this season. This team's already powerful offense can only expect to improve or at the least maintain.

Run Prevention

The Tigers rank 18th in Run Differential: arguably the most significant predictor of a team's win-loss record. They have given up 15 more runs than their opponents this season -- not a formula for success.

Pitching and defense give up 4.69 runs per game, fourth worst in baseball. The Tigers are only better than the Red Sox (42-47), Rockies (39-49) and Phillies (29-62).

So what needs to happen for the team to have a shot in October?

The Tigers need to stop giving up runs in order to have a shot at making the playoffs. It's important to remember the difference between being in or out of the playoffs is the difference between just a couple of wins over the course of the rest of the 2015 season. Currently, the team is only three and a half games behind one of the two American League wild card spots, and nine games behind the Royals for the division.

Below are the five biggest factors in the Tigers' reaching their full potential in 2015.

1. Justin Verlander could be returning to semi-vintage form

Justin Verlander has made his return from the triceps strain that delayed the start of his season. Most of what we have seen on the mound has been anything but classic Verlander. In his last start, however, he threw seven innings and allowed only one run. He had six strikeouts against one walk, which was his most impressive K/BB ratio in any start this year. In fact, if you look at his last two starts compared to his first three, his numbers don't look all bad.



IP K BB K/BB First 3 of 2015 17.2 7 8 0.875 Last 2 of 2015 12.2 11 3 3.667

Verlander's K/BB ratio in his last two starts has been on the positive side of his career average of 2.98, hopefully an indication that he is regaining the command he lacked in his first few starts.

Pitchers are thought to have very little control over their HR/FB, the percentage of fly balls which end up going for home run. League average sits slightly below 10 percent, and Verlander's career is 7.9 percent. This year, he's sitting at a whopping 13.6 percent, indicating that he should have potential for improvement. In fact, three of six home runs that Verlander has given up were at the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Verlander appears to have been a victim of bad luck, which shouldn't continue to last.

2. Simon returns to where he belongs and the Tigers trade for a replacement

It's no secret that Alfredo Simon should be moved to the bullpen. Just how much better could he be there?

In 2013, Simon pitched 87 2/3 innings out of the Reds Bullpen. He showed remarkable consistency throughout the season.

Season Position Split ERA AVG wOBA K/BB WHIP FIP xFIP 2013 Reliever 1st Half 2.92 0.215 0.28 3.31 1.07 3.51 3.96 2013 Reliever 2nd Half 2.82 0.201 0.277 1.54 1.07 4.53 4.57

In 2014, Simon was moved to the Reds' starting rotation, and earned an appearance in the All-Star Game after an exceptional first half of the season in which he posted a 2.70 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. In the second half of the 2014 season, however, Simon looked like the anything but an All-Star, posting an ERA of 4.52 with a WHIP of 1.44.

In his first few outings of 2015, Simon got off to an equally exceptional start, but again he deteriorated sharply, even earlier this year than he did last year.

Season Position Split ERA AVG wOBA K/BB WHIP FIP xFIP 2015 Starter Mar/Apr 3.13 0.258 0.295 3.50 1.17 3.23 3.69 2015 Starter May 2.1 0.222 0.303 1.70 1.25 3.93 4.76 2015 Starter Jun 5.4 0.234 0.329 1.79 1.41 4.63 4.32 2015 Starter Jul 10.54 0.458 0.509 4.00 2.63 3.88 3.81

Simon doesn't seem to be able to handle being in a starting rotation -- for whatever reason, he becomes a much less impressive starter as the season progresses.

If the Tigers can make a trade for a serviceable starting arm, Simon can be placed in the bullpen where he has shown value and consistency in the past.

3. Bruce Rondon's return adds more depth to the bullpen

The addition of Bruce Rondon should also provide a major boost to the team, as he has proven he can strike out hitters, with 11 strikeouts in only seven innings so far this season. He has struggled with command, but that should improve with more innings pitched. His ERA currently sits at an unimpressive 9.00 due to two blowup outings, but more advanced metrics (1.65 FIP, 2.84 xFIP) say he has pitched at a level that far exceeds his ERA.

Another metric pitchers are thought to have little control over is BABIP (batting average on balls in play). League average is typically around .320, and when a pitcher is significantly above this, it's thought that they've had more than their share of bad luck. Rondon's BABIP is .444, so we can expect improvement.

4. Tigers' fielding continues to do well

It's not fair to say the Tigers are bad at everything about preventing runs. The Tigers have some exceptional players when it comes to fielding. In 2014 they were one of the worst fielding teams; in 2015, they're one of the best. The table below includes the team's defensive statistics and rankings in both years.

Season DefWAR DefWAR Rank UZR UZR Rank DRS DRS Rank 2014 -42.2 26 -48.1 28 -65 28 2015 11.0 8 11.0 9 3.0 13

Yoenis Cespedes ranks as the fourth-best defender and J.D. Martinez ranks as the seventh-best in all of baseball in the unweighted statistic UZR.

Another statistic, DEF, includes an adjustment for the fact that some positions are more difficult to play. In terms of the best defender by position in the American League, the Tigers have the best second baseman, the best left fielder, the best right fielder, and fifth-best shortstop.

5. Nick Castellanos could be the hero this team needs

There's another player on this team with a huge ceiling: Nick Castellanos. He has been the everyday third baseman for two years because this team genuinely believes this young player can make a significant impact in the future. It's easy to overlook just how young Castellanos is; at 23, he's the youngest player on our 25-man roster.

Since June 23rd, Nick has played in 17 games with 69 plate appearances. In this stretch, he has eight extra base hits, and the numbers of an All-Star third baseman.



BA OBP SLG ISO wOBA wRC+ Castellanos since 6/23 0.354 0.377 0.554 0.200 0.398 156 MLB average 3B 0.269 0.327 0.441 0.171 0.333 112

He's had other stretches like this in his career, most notably during June of last season when he hit .337/.365/.520 with a .383 wOBA and 148 wRC+.

These numbers indicate that when Castellanos is playing well, he is playing really well. If he is able to maintain a high level of play in the second half, it could provide a major boost, especially while Cabrera is out.

The Verdict

The Tigers face an uphill battle if they want to make the playoffs this season. Despite that, they have a high potential to be a breakout team in the second half. Even without Cabrera the past two weeks and without Victor Martinez for much of the first half of the season, the offense has been stellar. Their fielding continues to wow and be among the best in the league. If the Tigers get some incremental improvements from pitchers currently on the team and trade for a cheap, serviceable starter, they can improve their pitching staff enough to make a push for the playoffs in the second half.

This article was co-authored by ThatFunkyKid and Levijs.