Ledyard King

WASHINGTON – Gwen Graham's feeling pretty good these days.

The Democratic congressional challenger boasts a sizable fundraising advantage in her race to unseat GOP Rep. Steve Southerland in Florida's Second District seat.

Outside groups, including environmental organizations, have spent close to $800,000 on TV ads and other media to help her campaign and are expected to ramp up spending further over the next two months.

And Graham's well-known father — former Gov. Bob Graham — has been at her side as she runs her first race for public office.

The question is, will all that be enough to overcome political headwinds in one of the nation's most politically polarized districts, stretching across 14 counties in Florida's Big Bend.

Graham is trying to win in a non-presidential election year — usually a disadvantage for members of the party occupying the White House — against a two-term incumbent whose campaign also is getting help from outside groups, including the National Rifle Association.

The contest is one of the few truly competitive House races in the country this year.

But independent analysts increasingly say Graham could upset Southerland, thanks in part to her disciplined campaigning and missteps by Southerland's campaign, notably a men-only fundraiser earlier this year that opponents have seized on as blatantly chauvinistic.

"Some Republican strategists are nervous that Southerland isn't running the quality campaign necessary to win a top race against a top challenger," said Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report.

Defining herself

David Wasserman, who handicaps House races for the independent Cook Political Report, said Graham has run a surprisingly effective campaign and has deftly used her father, who remains popular in North Florida. It's helped make Southerland one of the nation's five most vulnerable Republican House members in this year's election.

"Graham has turned out to be one of the strongest Democrats in the country," Wasserman said. "Southerland always has had problems reaching out beyond his natural base of very conservative voters. Graham has successfully leveraged her financial advantage in the race into an early advertising advantage."

Graham began running TV ads in June that define her as a moderate problem-solver.

Southerland is challenging that view with a new TV spot that spotlights Graham's past work for Democrats Howard Dean and John Kerry while describing her as Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's chosen candidate.

"You can't align yourself with the Howard Deans and the John Kerrys and take the money from the people she's taking the money from and be handpicked by Miss Pelosi and not tote their water," Southerland said in an an interview. "Those individuals are not cared for in my district."

Graham says the decision to run has always been her own.

"I was not recruited by anyone to run for this seat," she said. "When the (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) heard about me, they said, 'Huh. We didn't know that Bob Graham had a daughter.'"

Independent voice

Graham says she would be an independent voice on Capitol Hill, and offers the Affordable Care Act as a case in point.

While she opposes attempts by Southerland and most other Republicans to do away with the 2010 health care law, she backs fixes that would keep the law's major pillars intact. That includes provisions barring insurers from denying coverage based on a pre-existing medical condition.

But debates over issues already are giving way to character attacks, a result of the large amount of third-party money being spent on the race.

So far, national party organizations and outside interest groups have spent nearly $1.3 million in the district, according to the Federal Election Commission. Of that, 60 percent has been spent to unseat Southerland, a former funeral director and a leading conservative voice in the House.

Southerland, meanwhile, has tried to show he's a defender of conservative values that he believes are the core of his largely rural district.

His leadership on measures to create work requirements for food stamp recipients, bolster the rights of recreational fishermen and limit federal implementation of the Clean Water Act, he said, align closely with the majority of his constituents.

Democrats are trying to portray Southerland as insensitive, particularly on women's issues.

They point to his vote last year against an extension of the Violence Against Women Act, an anti-domestic-abuse act that passed by a wide margin and was signed into law.

Southerland voted for the House version of the bill but not the Senate one that eventually became law. The Senate bill included provisions that widened protections to same-sex couples, undocumented immigrants and native Americans. Southerland said his opposition was due mainly to lack of debate on the measure before it came up for a vote.

Southerland's opponents have been been particularly fierce regarding the all-male fundraiser in March for him at the University Center Club in Tallahassee.

The invitation, unearthed last week by the website Buzzfeed, instructs donors to "tell the misses not to wait up because the after dinner whiskey and cigars will be smooth & the issues to discuss are many."

Southerland said he never saw the invitation before it went out. Even so, he described it as "a tempest in a teapot."

Julie Tomlinson, the wife of the man who hosted the dinner, slammed criticism of the event as "desperate, dirty and preposterous," in a letter to the Tallahassee Democrat.

Southerland said he's had all-female campaign events as well, and points out that he's the only male in a household with a wife and four daughters.

"I live in a women's-only event," he said.

Lobbyist claims

Southerland responded to criticism about the all-male fundraiser by airing a TV ad this week accusing Graham of being a Washington lobbyist 25 years ago when her father was a U.S. senator.

Graham, then known as Gwen Logan, was listed on a 1989 lobbying disclosure form when she worked for the Andrews & Kurth law firm, which represented the Secondary Lead Smelters Association.

"Liberal Gwen Graham is hiding the truth," a narrator says in Southerland's new ad. "Graham was a Washington lobbyist and liberal political consultant."

Graham maintains she wasn't a lobbyist despite the record. Her campaign released a statement from her former boss at the firm, Rob Steinwurtzel, that she was listed as one because it was standard practice.

"We listed everybody, regardless of whether they performed lobbying activities or not, he said in the statement. "She did not go to meetings with legislators or advocate on behalf of clients.'"

In an interview, Graham said, "I never lobbied one day in my life. It's just a flat-out lie. And it shows the desperation of their campaign. When you're losing, this is what you do."

Republicans don't buy it. They hope to use the episode to show voters Graham is not the Washington outsider she claims to be.

"Gwen Graham has been running a phony campaign about the 'North Florida Way,' but her cover has been blown," said Katie Prill, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Enlisting well-known help

Graham already has raised nearly $2.6 million and has almost $1.5 million on hand, according to FEC reports that cover activity through Aug. 6. Southerland has raised nearly $2.1 million and has $1.4 million in his account, records show.

Southerland thinks he'll raise at least another $500,000, Graham won't say what her target is.

Both candidates are relying on some national figures to raise even more money. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and former GOP presidential candidate Mike Huckabee are planning fundraisers for Southerland. Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer, the second-most powerful Democrat in the House, will be raising money for Graham as well.

And third-party groups are expected to spend hundreds of thousands more over the next two months.

All of it means Second District residents should brace themselves for a barrage of mailers, online ads and TV spots, much of it negative.

With the large majority of House districts lacking partisan balance, Wasserman expects the Second District race will be "saturated" with money for campaign activity.

Southerland agrees.

"I think (voters) are about to see a congressional campaign that they've never seen before," he said.