About Last Week

Always look on the bright side of life (Sherman)

The important thing was that everyone had fun.

The Road Ahead Not Taken

You probably noticed that last week’s slate of opponent games was almost unwatchable, and certainly not the kind of thing that should be brought up in polite company. So, given that it is a bye week and the alternative is discussing Indiana/Northwestern and Rutgers/Illinois at length in front of God and errybody, I thought instead we might take a quick glimpse at some of the other 117 FBS teams across this great land. Some of them are good. Some of them are Nebraska.

B1G West

Minnesota (8-0, 5-0 B1G)

Sometimes questions are a bad idea

Current SP+: #10 (#8 Offense, #22 Defense)

SP+ projected wins: 10.5

Best win: Um… Nebraska, I guess.

Worst loss: None

So what’s their deal: Dogs and cats living together. Gophers rowing boats. Mass hysteria.

Early on, Minnesota looked like they might not make it beyond the reef before the whole dang season sank to the bottom of the lagoon. They opened with one-score wins over South Dakota State, Fresno State, and Georgia Southern. But like Jessica Fletcher, somehow they’ve gotten to the end of those weeks, and every week since, unscathed. It seems more than a little fishy, sure… but there’s no direct evidence of what we all kinda suspect.

If you want support for the “I’m just an innocent murder mystery writer with very bad luck and a questionable social circle” theory of Minnesota, you could point to the fact that the Gophers are #6 in the country in yards per pass attempt. Tanner Morgan has the #7 passer rating in the country, largely because Minnesota has two of the most talented and physically impressive wideouts in the country in Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson. Their running game has also picked up significantly; after some early struggles, they have cracked 320 yards rushing in three of their last four games.

If you want support for the “yeah, this woman is the most obvious serial killer in history, stop her before she kills again next Tuesday at 8:00/7:00 Central” theory, you would be correct to point out that Minnesota hasn’t played a team ranked higher than #50 in SP+. Their FBS opponents are currently ranked #66, #83, #55, #57, #50, #107, and #63. And to make it worse, they’re getting the worst versions of a lot of these teams. They have faced five consecutive backup quarterbacks of some flavor: Jack Plummer, Matt Robinson, Noah Vedral, Johnny Langan, and Tyler DeSue.

Prognosis: Ask again in 10 days. By then they will have played Penn State and Kinnick Iowa. Also, she didn’t commit *all* of the murders, but if you don’t think she didn’t use her role as “person who decides who committed the murders in Cabot Cove” to off a few people and blame her personal enemies along the way, you’re kidding yourself.

[AFTER THE JUMP: Surely the rest of the B1G West is of similar quality.]

Purdue (3-6, 2-4 B1G)

Current SP+: #55 (#52 Offense, #70 Defense)

SP+ projected wins: 4.0

Best win: vs. Nebraska

Worst loss: @ Nevada

So what’s their deal: Not since Mr. Burns’ ill-fated company softball team have a bunch of engineers taken such egregious losses. Elijah Sindelar, Rondale Moore, Markus Bailey, Lorenzo Neal, and Tario Fuller have all gone down. This should probably have doomed Purdue — who still didn’t have a lot of depth in the wake of the Darrell Hazell Experience — to a Rutgerian collapse. But Purdue has acquitted themselves admirably, beating Maryland and Nebraska and giving Iowa a scare in Iowa City.

The real good news is for the future. True freshmen David Bell and George Karlaftis have emerged as potential stars. Karlaftis has 12.5 tackles for loss, leading all humans in the Big Ten and trailing Chase Young by only 3. The prospect of Bell and Moore on the same field has to scare the hell out of defensive coordinators. And Purdue’s 2020 recruiting class is currently ranked #4 in the conference and #26 nationally after finishing #5/#25 last year.

Prognosis: Guys, please sit down. Can I get you a glass of water? A snack? Maybe some Advil? You need to rest. Just… just sit this next one out.

Nebraska (4-5, 2-4 B1G)

Purdue taking on Nebraska last week

Current SP+: #50 (#49 Offense, #65 Defense)

SP+ projected wins: 5.0

Best win: @ Illinois

Worst loss: @ Purdue

So what’s their deal: On one level, they feel a lot like Purdue. Some key injuries (especially to Adrian Martinez) and a lack of depth resulting from the failed tenure of Mike Riley hampered a potential breakout year. The losses are understandable, and they have had some freshmen emerge as potential stars in the process; Wan’Dale Robinson is electric, and Luke McCaffrey displayed great genes in extremely limited playing time.

But this one feels worse. Maybe it’s because the expectations are higher at Nebraska than they are a Purdue. Maybe it’s because Scott Frost is getting the Corn Belt Jim Harbaugh treatment, where people like to see brash guys fail. Maybe it’s because their injuries haven’t been as Thanos-level as Purdue’s, or because Mike Riley didn’t leave the cupboard nearly as bare as Hazell. Or maybe it’s because Zombie Purdue just beat a Martinez-led Nebraska squad head-to-head.

Prognosis: If I’m a Nebraska fan, two things concern me. The first is that the defense has not improved; despite having a senior-heavy front seven, they are surrendering 6.0 yards per play and a conference-worst 5.3 yards per carry in Big Ten play. The second is that Adrian Martinez may be in a Hackenberg/Gardner regression-by-attrition loop.

Northwestern (1-7, 0-6 B1G)

Current SP+: #94 (#126 Offense, #21 Defense)

SP+ projected wins: 2.7

Best win: vs. UNLV

Worst loss: @ Nebraska

So what’s their deal: I don’t know where to start with Northwestern. But lest you think I am being overly pessimistic about the Wildcats, I'll let the numbers speak for themselves:

#130 in the country (i.e. dead last) in offensive yards per play (3.65 YPP), nearly a full yard worse than any other Power 5 team.

#130 in yards per pass (4.0 YPA)

#130 in passer rating (74.8), which is worse than 2018 Rutgers

#130 in passing TD/INT ratio (2/11)

#130 in scoring offense (9.8 PPG)

#130 in offensive plays of 10+ yards (77), 20+ yards (12), 30+ yards (3), and 40+ yards (1)

#129 in red zone touchdown percentage (38.9%

#121 in 3rd down conversions (31.6%)

#117 in first downs per game (17.0)

#116 in yards per carry (3.3 YPC)

Zero wins over teams in the SP+ top 118.

Possibly most damning of all for a Big Ten school, they lead the nation in most punts per game, but are #126 in yards per punt.

Now, I'm not here to point fingers... but holy shit how are you still employing Mick McCall. He's been there for more than a decade, and Northwestern has been somewhere between middling and embarrassing on offense for most of that time, despite what McCall's amazing profile in the Northwestern Ministry Of Positive News About Our Great Leaders would suggest. We (rightly) mock Mark Dantonio for failing to make staff changes in the face of a struggling offense, but one could argue that McCall's continued employment is as egregious as anything Dantonio did (or failed to do) on that front.

In a football sense, Northwestern doesn't have a quarterback (5-star transfer Hunter Johnson isn't exactly working out) or an offensive line, and their receivers are underwhelming on the few occasions in which a football randomly ends up near them on the fly. Running backs Isaiah Bowser and Drake Anderson have looked functional, making them the unquestioned stars of the offense. Defensively, Northwestern has been fine – Joe Gaziano and Paddy Fisher remain awesome – but not nearly good enough to hold back the flood waters.

Prognosis: /pokes with a stick

Yeah no.

Future Opponents

Washington (5-4, 2-4 PAC-12)

Current SP+: #17 (#10 Offense, #33 Defense)

SP+ projected wins: 7.3

Best win: vs. USC

Worst loss: vs. Cal

So what’s their deal: Some of the luster of Michigan’s 2020 opener at Washington may be dulled by the fact that the Huskies will be coming off of somewhere between a 4- and 6-loss season, though that isn’t entirely fair. Washington has been better than their record, as their SP+ ranking suggests. They pooped the bed slightly against Cal and Stanford, but they also beat USC and played both Oregon and Utah to the wire in consecutive games.

Washington will have Jacob Eason back next year for his senior season. Eason has a Maryland-esque boom-or-bust quality to his game; five games over 9.6 YPA and a passer rating over 190, and four games with a passer rating under 125.

Prognosis: Hey, look: a home-and-home with a real opponent!

(Please note that this will not count as a significant road victory if Michigan wins, though it will count towards the "Harbaugh can't win big road games" if they lose. Don't ask me you'll have to take it up with the committee. Something about time zones and body clocks.)

Ball State (4-5, 3-2 MAC)

Current SP+: #98 (#96 Offense, #84 Defense)

SP+ projected wins: 6.3

Best win: Toledo?

Worst loss: vs. Ohio

So what’s their deal: Ball State is in the thick of the MAC race. This should be encouraging given their general lack of football goodness. Thing is, though, at the moment "is in the thick of the MAC race" is synonymous with "is not Eastern Michigan or Akron."

Chaos. Lovely, lovely chaos. Also, please note that Eastern Michigan, one of the two MAC teams legitimately out of the division race, has a transitive win over Wisconsin.

Prognosis: Ball State is generally unremarkable, and that seems unlikely to change too much before fall of 2020.

Arkansas St. (5-4, 3-2 Sun Belt)

Current SP+: #85 (#50 Offense, #110 Defense)

SP+ projected wins: 7.1

Best win: The word “best” gets thrown around a lot these days…

Worst loss: @ Georgia State

So what’s their deal: Look, I’m not going to lie to you. Michigan's home schedule next year is pretty grim. Wisconsin and Penn State are coming to town, but beyond that… yikes.

That said, these are some pretty awesome uniforms:

R E D A L E R T A look is coming to @MY100BANK Stadium Tomorrow vs SMU. #WolvesUp | #NOW pic.twitter.com/WmOik8LXwz — Arkansas State Football (@AStateFB) August 30, 2019

Prognosis: Mediocre football. Outstanding helmets.

Florida (7-2, 4-2 SEC)

Current SP+: #13 (#21 Offense, #16 Defense)

SP+ projected wins: 9.4

Best win: vs. Auburn

Worst loss: vs. Georgia

So what’s their deal: Florida isn’t currently on Michigan’s schedule, but that is just a technicality. Michigan and Florida will play in a bowl game this year. Michigan and Florida will play in a bowl game next year. Michigan has always been at war with Florida in a bowl game. The two programs are like the result of some quantum entanglement experiment gone horribly wrong. When Florida wins, Michigan wins. When Florida screws up in horrible, embarrassing fashion, Michigan follows suit. When Michigan sneezes, Florida has to check to be sure they didn’t pee a little.

This season, that’s a good thing. Florida has two losses to highly ranked teams away from home (ditto), one win over a team currently ranked in the top 15. Michigan *could* be in the midst of a really good season, but Feleipe Franks dislocated his ankle in Florida’s third game of the season, causing Michigan to dislocate their bowels during *their* third game of the season.

These photons are destined to meet in the Outback Bowl

Prognosis: Florida closes with a very manageable slate of Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Florida State, which bodes well for Michigan. Hopefully this means that Michigan and Florida will meet in a quality bowl, rather than the TaxSlayer/Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl.

Where is Urban Meyer Coaching Next Year

Florida State (4-5, 3-2 ACC)

Current SP+: #51 (#58 Offense, #57 Defense)

SP+ projected wins: 5.5

Best win: vs. Louisville

Worst loss: vs. Boise St.

So what’s their deal: Florida State has not forgotten their roots. Leon County, Florida is named after Juan Ponce de León, who famously scoured the land in search of the Fountain of Youth. So, when Florida State officials heard the rumors that the magical life-giving powers of the Big Noon Saturday studios had healed Urban Meyer, they wasted no time. They immediately set out on their quest to acquire this prize, or get stabbed to death by angry locals trying. And the first step on such a long voyage was to shed all unnecessary items, which apparently included Willie Taggart.

Firing Taggart is odd. When he was hired, everyone knew that the Noles were in the need of a rebuild/revamp/reload/rewhatever. They had some significant, obvious flaws in their last year under Jimbo Fisher, especially along the offensive line. When Taggart was hired, everyone also knew that Taggart’s rebuilds take a little time. And through 21 games, Florida State had been… okay? Mediocre? Underwhelming? Certainly not fireable based on performance alone, especially when you know that firing a guy in this fashion means (a) this year is probably shot, (b) you’re going to have to start over next year, and (c) it’s going to be difficult to find a guy who wants to sit in the chair that they just saw a guy get electrocuted in after TWENTY-ONE GAMES.

So, we are left with two possible explanations that makes this move make any sense. The first is that FSU has identified a big name, and they think they need to shoot their shot now to make it happen. The second is that there was something about Willie Taggart that some important folks (presumably the uber-boosters) in Florida State didn’t like, and were looking for any opportunity to get rid of him and replace him with someone — anyone —who was… oh, let's say someone a little less like Willie Taggart. Something. I can’t put my finger on what that might be. But something.

Prognosis: Surely Urban Meyer, or anyone else with any real coaching options, will want to jump right into this circular firing squad.

USC (5-4, 4-2 PAC-12)

Current SP+: #27 (#18 Offense, #49 Defense)

SP+ projected wins: 7.0

Best win: vs. Utah

Worst loss: @ BYU

So… how's things?

So what’s their deal: The person most displeased about Willie Taggart getting fired, other than Willie Taggart, was probably Clay Helton. Helton entered 2019 on the top of every Hot Seat list, but for a brief moment, it looked like he might save himself. They had quality losses to Notre Dame and Washington, and they beat legitimately-good Utah and before-we-knew-Stanford-was-poopy Stanford. But then Oregon mollywhopped them to the tune of 56-24 at the Colosseum, and then the next dang day, Florida State cracked the starter pistol on Major Program Coaching Search Season.

Thanks, fellas.

Ol’ Clay may be in luck in one respect, as USC is just wrapping up an Athletic Director search (as they canned Lynn Swann earlier this year), and the new AD may not have the appetite to jump straight into a coaching search before he has even unpacked his nicknacks. They also have a reasonable schedule to close out the year, with only Arizona State, Cal, and UCLA left. But it feels like a loss in any one of those games might be all she wrote.

Prognosis: Urban Meyer (or whoever is coaching USC next year (but probably Urban Meyer)) will be walking into an extremely talented team. They have to talented underclass quarterbacks in JT Daniels and Kedon Slovis. They have a fleet of wide receivers. Drake Jackson is one of the best freshmen defensive ends in the country.

Notre Dame (6-2)

Current SP+: #25 (#37 Offense, #39 Defense)

SP+ projected wins: 8.9

Best win: vs. USC

Worst loss: @ Michigan

So what’s their deal: I know we discuss Notre Dame every week, but given the topic, we had to discuss them this week as well. Urban Meyer has long been tied to the Notre Dame job, and that conversation aaaaaaaaalmost got interesting last week, as Notre Dame was a couple of 4th down conversions away from losing to a mediocre Virginia Tech squad. But still, they lost to hated rival Michigan. By 31 points. So there is always a chance that Brian Kelly might not be around forever. Because they lost to Michigan.

By 31 points.

To Michigan.

Prognosis: The fun thing is that Urban Meyer would have time to go through the entire cycle (get hired, win big, national acclaim, "I was unaware of these incidents and to suggest otherwise makes my family cry," Tom Rinaldi piece about his crippling health issues, retirement, healing power of studio lights) before Michigan even comes back on Notre Dame's schedule. Hell, if he hustles, he can make two laps.

Who is Coaching Michigan State Next Year

Cincinnati (7-1, 4-0 AAC)

Genius at work. (AP)

Current SP+: #35 (#56 Offense, #34 Defense)

SP+ projected wins: 9.7

Best win: vs. UCF

Worst loss: @ Ohio State

So what’s their deal: Michigan fans often don't put much respect on Luke Fickell's name. This is probably because he was the only Ohio State coach in the last thousand years who couldn't beat Michigan, coupled with his recent flop with box office duds Grown Ups 2, Jack and Jill, and Pixels. He also came off as a bit of a buffoon in the offseason James Hudson transfer drama. But Fickell's work with Cincinnati has been objectively impressive. The Bearcats were 4-8 (1-7) in 2016 before Fickell arrived. In 2018 they won 11 games, and they are currently on pace for another double-digit winning season. their only loss this year was to Ohio State on the road, which… yeah that'll happen.

Prognosis: It doesn't matter if Fickell makes a New Years Six bowl and cures the common cold, Michigan State is still going to hire from within. Because how can you go away from what worked for a little while several years ago.

Pitt (6-3, 3-2 ACC)

Current SP+: #48 (#115 Offense, #10 Defense)

SP+ projected wins: 7.7

Best win: vs. UCF

Worst loss: vs. Virginia

So what’s their deal: Look at that SP+ profile. If that doesn't SCREAM "Michigan State," buddy I don't know what to tell you. And Narduzzi was at Michigan State recently enough to technically count as "hiring from within."

Prognosis: Do it, Sparty.

Do. It.