Hey there, time traveller!

This article was published 26/1/2019 (603 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

JOHN WOODS / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS Manitoba MLA Andrew Swan greets supporters at Winnipeg's Robert Steen Community Centre on Monday before he announced that he will be running for the federal NDP seat in Winnipeg Centre in the next federal election. (Winnipeg Free Press)

Manitoba’s big political news in the past week was the announced departure of former NDP Attorney General Andrew Swan from provincial politics and his intention to run against Liberal Robert-Falcon Ouellette in the federal riding of Winnipeg Centre.

The NDP nomination is by no means guaranteed to Swan, as he will first face a contest against Leah Gazan, a community organizer and Indigenous advocate. The riding itself, Liberal held, is among the most impoverished in Canada.

The reason for Swan to run federally is somewhat unclear. While his seat in Minto is disappearing under the announced seat re-distribution, the neighbouring seat held by NDP Rob Altemeyer will be available as he has also announced his decision not to run again.

Does Swan know something about the NDP’s provincial prospects that we don’t? Isn’t leaving the provincial NDP to run federally a case of jumping from the frying pan into the fire?

Meanwhile, the rebuild of the provincial NDP under Wab Kinew does not appear as promising as Winnipeg Free Press contributor Niigaan Sinclair might lead one to believe. In an op-ed column from Monday’s Free Press, Sinclair stated that "by the time the next election comes around (2020), it may boast a new slate of political faces."

Given the sheer number of retirements and departures, and with only a dozen sitting MLAs, it doesn’t take too much imagination to opine that the party will boast such a slate. Unless the party doesn’t plan to run a full slate, something virtually unthinkable for the NDP, new faces are inevitable.

Will the new faces be better than those from the past? It will be challenging for NDP Leader Wab Kinew to recruit a slate of candidates who will excite the province and make him the next premier. Kinew, in his two years as leader, has failed to galvanize his party’s fundraising efforts or generate much excitement about his own leadership. Kinew’s latest comments about Manitoba’s drug crisis has garnered an overwhelming lack of interest.

Kinew remains solidly behind Premier Brian Pallister in the polls.

As the Tories themselves know from past experience, it takes time in Opposition for a party to rebuild its platform, ideas, finances, fundraising abilities and bench strength. A strong leader can guide in all of these areas, but that is not what we have witnessed to date from Kinew.

Kinew has a goal to elect an equal number of men and women in the next election. While this is a well-intentioned outcome, it feels like another piece of gender/identity politicking that is tough to envision succeeding.

Does Kinew intend to place his thumb on the scale to ensure gender-appropriate candidates in particular ridings? Will he somehow influence constituencies to support the handpicked choices who meet his desired identity profiles?

Identity politics aside, it will be a daunting challenge to topple Pallister, who — as The Brandon Sun reported in Wednesday’s paper — has a government hitting its stride. Whether it is reducing red tape and excessive bureaucracy, health care wait times, taxes or increasing the basic personal exemption, Pallister and his government are clearly in a positive groove with Manitobans who have the party leading by double digits over its opponents.

Of particular interest to me in Pallister’s comments was the note that 56 per cent of Manitobans are "$200 or less away from financial insolvency at the end of each month." This should underscore the challenges facing this government. With record low interest rates, almost full employment and a former NDP government that spent this government into record debt levels, more than half of us are close to financial dire straits. If this doesn’t send a cold chill down your spine, it ought to.

We are indeed fortunate this government has laboured mightily to reduce red tape and taxes and, in doing so, put more money back into the pockets of ordinary Manitobans. And this, regardless of identity politics, is a momentous hill for Wab Kinew to climb. Maybe Andrew Swan left while the getting was good.