Polls show the centre-left leader is heading for defeat in next month’s vote on whether to approve constitutional reforms

The Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, has doubled down on a promise to resign if he loses an upcoming referendum, saying the “decrepit system” that would be left in the wake of his defeat would have to be taken care of by someone else.

The vow to leave his seat in Palazzo Chigi comes as polls show the centre-left leader is likely to be heading for defeat on 4 December, and that various strategies to win over Italian voters in the last few weeks have done little to convince them to support Renzi’s proposed constitutional reforms.

“If the citizens vote no and want a decrepit system that does not work, I will not be the one to deal with other parties for a caretaker government, ” Renzi said on Thursday in a radio interview on RTL.



At the beginning of the campaign, Renzi said he would stand down if he lost the vote, but had seemed to back away from the do-or-die strategy in the last few weeks in an effort to depersonalise the campaign and insist the vote was not about him. On Thursday, he returned to square one.

In effect, Renzi’s statement means a victory for the no camp would force Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella, to choose the head of an interim government, which would be in place until new elections were held. Renzi would remain head of the centre-left Democratic party.

The finance minister, Pier Carlo Padoan, and the culture minister, Dario Franceschini, have been mooted as possible interim prime ministers.

“At the end of the day, Renzi will remain the leader of the biggest party in parliament, so most likely we end up with a Mr Nobody as prime minister,” said political analyst Wolfango Piccoli of Teneo Intelligence.

While Renzi was attempting to scare voters by suggesting that a no win could leave the government in a state of chaos, Piccoli said, the strategy would not do much to sway the electorate, because the prospect of political instability did not necessarily frighten Italians.

“It’s a pretty futile exercise,” Piccoli said. The next steps will most likely be determined in part by the margin of defeat or victory, he added.

Fears mount that Renzi may be next referendum casualty Read more

The 4 December vote is centred on complicated legal changes to Italy’s constitution that would, in effect, make it easier for any ruling party to pass laws and weaken the power of the senate, the upper chamber of parliament.

Opponents of the reforms span the political spectrum, aligning political opponents on the far right and many on the left, including within Renzi’s own party, who have said the change will dangerously weaken Italy’s system of checks and balances.

Proponents of the changes say Italy has to take steps to ease the passage of laws after decades in which the parliament has proven itself to be incapable of passing large and necessary economic and political reforms.

More than two dozen polls published since the end of October have shown the no camp with a sizeable lead of about five points over the yes campaign. But the polls have shown that about a quarter of voters are still undecided, a fact most likely linked to the complicated nature of the referendum and voters’ apathy over Renzi’s personal political fate.

Even as Renzi has struggled to make inroads with voters, lawmakers in his government have pointed the finger of blame at social media outlets allegedly controlled by the Five Star movement (M5S) the anti-establishment and populist party leading the no campaign, which they say are propagating fake news stories and deriding politicians ahead of the vote.

Alessia Morani, an MP in Renzi’s Democratic party, likened them to “mud-slinging machines”.

A top adviser who has been described as Renzi’s “right hand”, Luca Lotti, has filed a complaint – apparently for defamation, although the legal case was not clearly stated – against a Twitter user with an apparently fake handle who accused Lotti of being connected to organised crime. Lotti vehemently denies the allegation.

A prosecutor in Florence, where Renzi once served as mayor, has reportedly taken up the case to determine whether the Twitter user – posting under the name Beatrice de Maio – is a paid affiliate of another political party.

“Lotti has taken on this initiative because it is intolerable that the deputy secretary of the presidency of the council of ministers is referred to as being in the mafia. The next step is now up to the prosecutor, who will determine who the person or persons are that are concealed under the name Beatrice di Maio,” said Federico Bagattini, an attorney for Lotti.

Bagattini declined to release the complaint to the Guardian.

The case, which was first reported by La Stampa, has caused consternation in the press. A column in Il Fatto Quotidiano questioned whether such a case could threaten freedom of speech for critics of the government, who were at risk of abusing their powers, even if their critics were internet trolls connected to an opposition party.

A Five Star official slammed the report in La Stampa, saying the allegation of wrongdoing against M5S had been reported by the “corrupt” press as if it had discovered actual wrongdoing.