In the previous years in analyzing the Texans roster and performance, you could look to the first round and predict with reasoned certainty what position the Texans were going to pick. You look at all the Rick Smith GM’d drafts, and they are all dire need picks for those years: defensive tackle, left tackle, linebacker, corner, (and with the plan of moving Mario Williams to OLB) defensive end.

This year, I’m not sure that there is a no-brainer need first round pick. Everybody, including Smith talks about Best Available Player, but at the bottom of the first round especially, the differences between one player and the next are jumbled. The BEST player for you might be the one that plays for a position of need because they can actually see the field.

Opportunity to get on the field makes draft more difficult because you’ve developed your own group of veterans. The Texans 2006 draft was great, but it also helped those guys that there was such a need for them to be on the field. Does Brooks Reed have a great rookie year if Mario Williams doesn’t get hurt in 2011? The other second round pick from last year, corner Brandon Harris, couldn’t play due to the veterans in front of him.

So what is the Texans greatest need in the first?

An reasoned argument can be made that the Texans should take a wide receiver in the first round. Lance Zierlein’s first mock draft has Texans drafting Rueben Randle, WR, LSU.

I’m not sold yet on wide receiver in the first. Here’s some of my thinking. The number of arguments do not reflect the strength of the arguments, but rather, I might be saying some things I just haven’t seen much discussed elsewhere:

Arguments for Texans picking Wide Receiver in the 1st Round.

1. Need spot. Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter not getting any younger. Last year with injuries, they barely had enough wide receivers to dress out. (Johnson’s injury was the most notable one, but both Walter and Jacoby Jones played through some injuries last season). In addition, many fans feel that Jones has not had the consistent production that you would like from someone with his speed and size, and proved unreliable for punt returns in the playoff game against the Ravens.

2. Draft offense. The Texans have had to focus a lot of their draft/free agent resources on the defensive side of the ball because it was so bad for so long. Would be nice to draft an offensive skill position to give Andre Johnson more help and put more playmakers on offense.

3. Relative need. On a team without huge, obvious, neon-flashing glaring needs, a high pick wide receiver with some special team skills is more likely to see the field than some other positions. (What happens in re-signing current free agents may have some effect on this, of course).

Arguments against Texans picking Wide Receiver in the 1st Round.

1. No WR worth a first round pick. At the spot that the Texans are picking, there may not be a wide receiver worth that spot that is so much better than the wide receivers that will be drafted in lower rounds. The wide receivers that will be picked ahead of the Texans spot aren’t worth the cost of moving up in the draft.

2. Deep WR draft. When a draft is deep for a position, you may be better off picking a different position in the first round, and getting good WR value in lower rounds.

3. Don’t want pressure to start rookie WR. Wide receiver is a hard position to learn in the Texans system. Precise route running and blocking is very important for Gary Kubiak’s system to work. The Texans like for their first/second round picks to be starters and impact players, and there isn’t a starter-ready wide receiver at the bottom of the first round.

4. Texans system doesn’t demand 1st round WR talent but it is nice. Arguably, the best three wide receivers in the Kubiak-style offense over history are: Andre Johnson, Jerry Rice and Rod Smith. Johnson and Rice were first round picks, both smart players with very high work ethics. Johnson came into the league with an unusual combination of insane size and speed. Rice is the prime example of a great wide receiver with terrible timed speed. Certainly that pick turned out pretty good, but you wouldn’t want to make a habit of drafting slow wide receivers in the first round unless you were a GM who liked to be fired.

Rod Smith is on the other side of the spectrum. He is the only undrafted free agent wide receiver to surpass 10,000 yards receiving. He was an incredibly productive player at a division II school and draft interest went away for him after his left knee was destroyed due to an extreme cheap shot before a punt return. I strongly suggest reading this Denver Post article, “Bronco’s Rod Smith retires.” You want to get a sense of what the Texans want in a wide receiver. Extremely hard worker, productive player with great hands…not the blown out knee thing.

This is a wide receiver-friendly offense for a player who does what the system asks them to do. Insane skills are nice, but the thing that these players have in common is willingness to work hard and great hands.

5. Kubiak appreciates wide receivers knowing the system more than maybe you do. Last year was a weird year to try to evaluate the current Texans wide receivers. They were often hurt. Their starting quarterback missed a bunch of the season. The defense had an astonishing season, which meant playing with a lead, which meant destroying teams in the second half of games with the running game, which also meant not having to take as many offensive risks.

Wide receivers on this team have three basic functions: 1. Never drop passes to move the sticks; 2. Run your routes precisely/do your blocks so the plays work; 3. Create explosive plays . Yes, they would like explosive plays, but the never drop passes thing, do your job is more important. No team is good with long down and distance, but the Texans put a priority of positive yards and no negative yard plays.

I would like you to take a moment and look at the career of Bronco wide receiver Ed McCaffrey. (I know I keep taking you back into the wayback machine, but often it is the best way of figuring out current thinking). He was a third round pick by the New York Giants. Ended up being a key part of the successful Bronco teams, so beloved in Colorado that wiki says that he has his own regional brand of horseradish sauce.

If you think “possession receiver,” McCaffrey likely comes to mind, and his reputation for making tough catches wasn’t undeserved. (including holding onto a catch after suffering a really gross looking leg fracture I will not link to).

Check out this McCaffrey YouTube. Includes kill shot blocks. We gonna find one of these guys this draft?

“Possession receiver” translates for some to slow white guy, but as this article from 1991 notes, McCaffrery was one of the fastest guys on the Giants team. Running a 4.47 40 at 6’5″ is a good thing.

Even with those raw numbers, McCaffrey’s most productive years didn’t happen until he was 8 (!) years into the league and in his 4th year with the Broncos.

Notably for those looking for the next Texans wide receiver, McCaffrey, like the other wide receivers I’ve already mentioned, was a very productive college wide receiver.

6. Texans developing wide receivers they drafted last year. The Texans spent a lot of their draft last year focusing on defense. They were able to get as undrafted free agents three of the best ones available: Lestar Jean, Jeff Maehl, Terrence Tolliver. (As an aside, the Texans haul of free agent wide receivers made Jaguars fans mad. They have wide receiver lust like Texans fans have defensive tackle of size lust).

Tolliver is off the Texans with an injury settlement and eventually ended on the Lions practice squad. Maehl ended the year on the Texans roster and Jean was kept on injured reserve. Neither of these players saw the field much given the players in front of them, but Jean had a flashy game in the preseason against the Jets. I’m guessing the Texans will want to add some more wide receivers in the draft, but do they have to be from the first round to have the skills the Texans value?

Rod Smith wasn’t a drafted player. Neither was Arian Foster. I’m not saying these guys deter you from drafting wide receiver but it would be nice to see what these hungry players can do with a full camp and a second year in the playbook. (There was a thought that 7th round pick Dorin Dickerson was going to be one of their developmental players, but I think transitioning from developmental tweener tight end, I’m not sure body-size he ever felt comfortable getting to a wide receiver weight. He’s currently with the New England Patriots practice squad–perhaps that might work out for him as they have done interesting things with unconventionally-sized receiving targets who have played multiple positions).

7. Best Player Available. What player in the first round would make the biggest impact for the Texans? A first round wide receiver that could be found at the bottom of the first with the learning curve that any receiver has jumping to the NFL? Or maybe a run stuffing defensive tackle of the size fans wish they had. Getting a quality swing tackle for future development? Or maybe, with the improbability of being able to keep Mario Williams, more playmaking at outside linebacker? The Texans had to play a backup tight end as a linebacker at the end of the last game of the season because they wanted to protect Reed for the playoffs, and Bryan Braman got hurt.

8. Good systems don’t require first round wide receivers. Would you like another Andre Johnson for the Texans? Sure. Yepper. Please. I’d be first in line. Is there an Andre Johnson in this draft? Don’t think so. If you look at a list of the most productive wide receivers in 2011, there’s plenty of them who were not drafted in the first round, and some of the best lower drafted wide receivers play for teams with proven offensive systems.

How the Texans have used wide receivers in recent years (or that Jacoby thing):

I don’t put the following in the for or against first round receiver argument. It’s information that might be relevant to your thinking though so I’m throwing it in. Also because I think it is interesting.

Understatement alert: Texans fans likely do not appreciate Jacoby Jones much. The recency effect means that that ugly performance against Baltimore likely sits badly with you this offseason, like eating rancid fish. Even so, 2011 would have been difficult had Jones not been a player familiar with the playbook to fill in for Andre Johnson. This is especially true given the circumstances of the lockout. Nobody can truly replace AJ because he is a historically gifted player, but who would have taken his reps?

Via Football Outsiders, here’s the catch percentages for the top three Texans wide receivers recently. His first two seasons, Jones had minimal receiving yards as a third round pick. (Remember, this is a hard offense for incoming receivers though Kubiak has stated that he wishes he had given Kevin Walter more reps his first year with the team). The numbers in parenthesis are number of targets.

Andre Johnson: 2011 – 65% (51), 2010 – 63% (139), 2009 – 59% (172), 2008 – 67% (171)

Kevin Walter: 2011 – 66% (59), 2010 – 64% (80), 2009 – 76% (70), 2008 – 63% (95)

Jacoby Jones: 2011 – 50% (64), 2010 – 65% (78), 2009 – 68% (40)

[Just to throw them in for 2008 because there’s numbers on them: David Anderson – 66% (29), Andre Davis – 46% (28)]

Jones’ first two years of production are consistent with what the Texans need from their offense as catch percentage. Fans may remember Jones’ drops in 2010 because they tended to come at inopportune 3rd down times with catchable balls. Hard to explain the 15 % point drop off from 2010 to 2011 with fewer targets. To paraphrase Giselle, some of it may be from Jones not being able to throw to himself. Some of those targets would be difficult catches.

I am certain that most fans underestimate the help he gives the running game with his blocking. Watch some of the Texans’ long runs and you will notice his blocking.

Your turn.

The main reason I run this blog is that if I’m going to have the football conversations I want to have, then maybe I should start them. I already know what I think, but I want to have a polite football conversation with you to see what you think. That’s how I learn stuff. And it makes the off-season less painful.

Do you want the Texans to take wide receiver in the first round? If so, who do you think is worth drafting at bottom of the first or giving up a ton to draft up for? (remembering of course, the value the Texans have been able to get from lower rounds).

If you don’t think the Texans should draft wide receiver in the first, who are some wide receivers you think would be good fits for what the Texans do? Rick Smith when evaluating a draft usually comes up with an ideal player for a position, and then works back to see how a drafted player fits what the Texans want. Here are some ideal Texans wide receiver qualities.

Hands, hands, hands. Possession. Production on the college level.

Blocking ability. (This often translates to getting players of size. Essential to the Texans running game, and it allows the Texans to run plays out of formations where usually teams use tight ends to block).

Hard worker. Locker room guy. Leadership. Self-Starter. Bright. Something going on behind the eyes. They put a premium on guys who are willing to do the work. You can’t have quitters with 100 degree training camps. Wide receiver is a hard position to learn on this team, and they want guys who don’t struggle with the playbook.

Special teams. Kubiak doesn’t like specialists taking up room on his gameday roster. So the Texans put a premium on wide receivers who can excel at special teams. Speed helps at this spot. Special Teams coach Joe Marciano puts a premium on speed. (Trindon Holliday, Jacoby Jones, Jerome Mathis).

I don’t think they are looking for choir boys but the guy has to be coachable. Has to have the ability to “get it.” Texans don’t do well with divas because if The Andre Johnson isn’t a diva, nobody else is allowed to be.

What I think.

I have a working familiarity about what people say about the players in the draft and what their bios read. Watch a few YouTubes highlights. See what people I respect say about the players. Not in a position to look them in eye, talk to them, that sort of thing. I’m not sure that there’s a wide receiver worth picking where the Texans are in the first round of the draft or giving up all you need to give up to move up a lot higher. Don’t feel strongly enough about that view that I can’t be persuaded otherwise.

Would not surprise me if the Texans drafted a couple of wide receivers. Maybe a physical guy. Maybe a shorter speedster. Want playmaking ability but has to have good hands. Good college careers often mean that despite lots of targets, a wide receiver can deal with defensive attention.