Nearly six months after the decisive battles between protesters and police on Kiev's Independence Square, the charred barricades of burned tyres and twisted metal still stand in memorial to the more than 100 people who died in the February clashes.

The Maidan movement achieved its main goal: the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych. But in the months since, Ukraine has lost Crimea to Russian annexation and seen a civil war take hold in the east of the country, with Moscow's support.

Petro Poroshenko, a chocolate tycoon who threw his lot in with the protests from the start, came to power in May's presidential elections promising a new type of political culture. But the conflict in the east has deflected attention and financial resources away from the renewal of government and governance, and analysts warn that serious economic problems are just around the corner.

Poroshenko and his government now face criticism from two sides. On the one hand, eager to end the standoff in the east as soon as possible and faced with an enemy that appears to have a constant supply of heavy weaponry from Russia, Ukrainian forces have resorted to tactics that have been strongly criticised by international bodies.

On the other hand, there is a growing sense in Ukrainian society that not enough has changed since Maidan, and a radicalisation of the mood has increased mutterings for a "new Maidan".

"A lot will depend on how quickly the war in the east is finished or whether it drags on for months," says political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko. "We are entering a very unpredictable period for Ukraine, and a lot about the future of the country will be decided in the next few months."

The UN says that more than 1,100 people have died since the "anti-terrorist operation" began in the east of the country several months ago. While the Ukrainian army has made significant gains against the armed separatists in recent weeks, it has come at the cost of an increasingly high civilian death toll.

Most controversial is the apparent use of Grad rockets by the Ukrainians. Both the rebels and the pro-Ukrainian forces have Grads, which fire up to 40 missiles in quick succession and are notoriously inaccurate. Kiev denies that it has ever used heavy artillery on residential areas, and has complained about reports by international rights organisations suggesting otherwise.

However, Ole Solvang, a researcher with Human Rights Watch (HRW) who spent last week documenting cases in Donetsk and the surrounding region, said there was "little doubt" Ukrainian forces had used Grad rockets in residential areas. HRW notes that the rebels also have Grad rocket systems and may well have used them on civilian populations.

"We know the rebels are using Grads as well, but this does not excuse the government," Solvang said.

Authorities in the city of Luhansk, under siege from the Ukrainian army, said on Tuesday that a humanitarian catastrophe is approaching, with no reliable supplies of electricity or drinking water. Hundreds of thousands of people have fled their homes, mainly across the border to Russia.

However, as public opinion becomes further radicalised by the war, there is little room for soul-searching, and voices urging restraint are not welcome. Increasingly there is a feeling that the unrest in the east needs to be wrapped up as soon as possible.

"Of course there has to be other elements to a solution for the east as well as the military solution," says Melnyk. "But until there is a military solution, everything else is impossible."

As the war has ground on, public opinion in western and central Ukraine has radicalised. Oleg Lyashko, an eccentric MP whose speciality is making raids into the east with a band of black-clad paramilitaries, stripping captives to their underwear, putting bags on their heads, and lecturing them on camera about their traitorous behaviour, has seen his popularity grow from zero to around 20%, making him a serious political force.

"When there is fear in society, demagogues flourish, and Lyashko's military populism is very popular at the moment," says political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko.

The reliance on volunteer battalions run by men such as Lyashko is mainly due to the appalling state of the Ukrainian army, which analysts say has been destroyed by negligence and corruption in the two decades since independence. There are also battalions funded by oligarchs, and those affiliated to political groups, including Right Sector, a group with neo-fascist tendencies.

The proliferation of these battalions also poses important questions for the postwar settlement, and Poroshenko will need to find a way to integrate the groups either into the army or back into civilian life when the conflict in the east is over.

"A new Maidan could pose a danger to the very nature of Ukrainian statehood, and of course there will be a major issue about what happens to all of these volunteer battalions when they return from the east. They are heavily armed, and many have links to oligarchs or political forces," says Fesenko. On Monday, there was an early warning of what could be to come, when the Kiev-1 battalion, back from the front, raided a cafe in central Kiev in order to evict other activists who had allegedly taken it over.

On Kiev's Independence Square, the tent camp still stands, guarded by barricades on all sides. Souvenir stands sell doormats and toilet rolls bearing the image of Yanukovych, and of Russian President Vladimir Putin.Just a few hundred people remain, sweltering in the summer heat, a far cry from the tens of thousands who stood there during the icy winter evenings prior to Yanukovych's fall. Amid much debate about whether it is time to reopen the square to normal traffic and pull down the tent camp, its endurance is a reminder to those in power of the fragility of their position.

For those who stood on Maidan and were the driving force behind the change of government in February, there are mixed feelings about how things have gone since.

Myroslav Gryshyn, a 28-year-old who stood on the barricades at Maidan from the start and later spent six weeks fighting near the rebel stronghold of Slavyansk with Ukraine's national guard, said he felt the February revolution had "changed the country's political culture" and given many people a sense that they were not powerless.

He said it was unrealistic to expect a complete transformation overnight, and that it could take Ukraine a decade or longer to become a "normal country", but nevertheless sounded a note of warning for Poroshenko: "Things are different now, we know that if we really want to change the government, we can do it with no problems."

Yehor Sobelev, a journalist and Maidan activist who now leads the Lustration Committee – a body that wants to force all Ukrainian public officials to undergo checks for past links to corruption and misgovernance – says Poroshenko has not done nearly enough during his time in charge.

"I see little evidence that he wants to change the corrupt system, just that he wants to lead it," says Sobelev. "I think there will be a new Maidan led by the people who come back from the front lines in the east, who have seen the effect that corruption and mismanagement has first hand. And I'd be surprised if all our current political leaders make it through that Maidan with their lives intact."