Since October 2014, when the Lebanese Council of Ministers introduced new regulations for Syrian refugees, Lebanon has explicitly pursued a policy of “deterrence” aimed at reducing the number of Syrians in Lebanon, guaranteeing security and easing the burden on the country.

But increasingly harsh conditions for Syrian refugees in Lebanon may also present new problems for a prospective deal with the European Union, designed to bolster Lebanon’s economy while effectively keeping Syrians away from Europe.

Fathy, who refused to reveal his full name, was one of several Syrians beaten by local men in the Mount Lebanon village of Hrajel in late June, immediately after a multiple suicide bombing attack on al-Qaa, a predominantly Christian village close to Lebanon's northeast border with Syria. The Syrians say they had no recourse to the municipality police or hospital, partly because they were not carrying valid residency papers — although a local official in Hrajel later told Al-Monitor that the men responsible for the beating had been given a “verbal warning.”

“We are being regulated more and more,” Fathy, a Syrian in his 40s originally from Idlib’s Jisr al-Shughur, told Al-Monitor. “I feel like I’m fighting to stay safe.”

BEIRUT — Many Syrians caught up in increasingly hostile surroundings in Lebanon believe the country is becoming a harder place to live, an existence dictated by expensive residency renewals, curfews and incitement.

One central aim of that policy is to “encourage displaced Syrians to return to their country or to other countries by any means possible, and strictly enforce Lebanese laws on them.” Refoulement should be used against “all those who violate Lebanese laws and the conditions of entry.” Refoulement, prohibited under the 1951 Refugee Convention, means forcibly returning a refugee or asylum seeker to an unsafe origin country.

Lebanon’s deterrence policy effectively puts it at odds with its obligations under the EU's new Partnership Framework, a controversial new policy endorsed by the European Council June 28 that attempts to realign Europe’s relations with third countries purely in terms of migration management.

The Partnership Framework’s communication highlights 16 partner countries and five priority countries — including Lebanon — and effectively recommends that migration management becomes the top priority in how the EU deals with third countries, with the help of “incentives” for compliant partners, in part because the “message that migration issues are now at the top of the EU's external relations priorities has not yet been fully communicated to and appreciated by partners.”

In recent months, the EU has been busy negotiating country-specific compacts with third countries aimed at exploring possible leverage in negotiations and securing future projects.

The projects under the Partnership Framework are being rolled out in some neighboring countries, with Jordan already having handed 23,000 Syrians work permits this year in return for low-interest loans and easier access to European markets, the Associated Press reported in late July. This is part of a long-term commitment to get 50,000 Syrians to work legally before the end of 2016.

For Lebanon, the Partnership Framework offers improvements to infrastructure and basic services (waste management, water, education and health) while improving economic opportunities for Syrians and the “most vulnerable Lebanese communities,” with no mention of specific communities.

But there's a caveat. According to the framework communication, “In exchange, the Lebanese government should make efforts on the social and economic inclusion of Syrian refugees in order to improve their living conditions and legal residence status.”

While Europe tries to incentivize Lebanon to maintain its Syrian refugee population — essentially to limit migration toward the EU — Lebanese politicians are effectively pursuing a policy that aims to encourage Syrians to feel as unwelcome as possible, leave or even return home. The EU’s aims are at odds with the prevailing mood in Lebanon, where Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil has been repeatedly criticized for allegedly xenophobic and inciteful remarks about Syrian refugees. Socio-economic pressures, in addition to Lebanon not having had a president since May 2014, has only made matters worse, forcing officials at the municipality level to enforce and interpret the law. One example is the introduction of curfews for Syrians at the municipality level, measures that Human Rights Watch say go against international and Lebanese law.

“The EU is seeking to improve the quality of life of refugees in terms of education, health, access to the job market while at the same time providing support … that will benefit the host communities and the whole Lebanese population and help to improve the political and economic stability of the country,” an EU spokesperson told Al-Monitor, before addressing concerns about the kind of rights abuses seen after al-Qaa. “The EU has been given assurances by the Lebanese authorities that it would not resort to any large-scale arbitrary detentions or refoulement,” the spokesperson added on condition of anonymity.

Meanwhile, Lisa Abou Khaled, a spokesperson for the United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR, told Al-Monitor there have been no cases of refoulement of Syrian refugees since the incident in al-Qaa, although hundreds have been detained — many without charge — since June.

The EU spokesperson said that negotiations would be “finalized shortly," while the Lebanese Ministry for Foreign Affairs refused to comment while negotiations were ongoing.

However, researchers have observed increasingly fraught relations between Beirut and Brussels during recent negotiations on traditional sticking-point issues — such as refoulement, registration of refugees and the ratification of the UNHCR Refugee Convention — largely as a result of the way Europe itself has handled migration on its own borders, argues Maja Janmyr, a researcher at the University of Bergen and the American University in Beirut.

Janmyr suggests there has been a “drastic shift” in EU-Lebanese migration talks over the past year, giving Lebanon “yet more leverage in negotiations with European states.”

She told Al-Monitor, “Lebanon is carefully watching European states' appalling responses to refugees and migrants, and is not afraid of using these observations in negotiations.”

The end result is that Syrian refugees in Lebanon are left feeling ever more uncertain about the future.

“This isn’t just about us,” Fathy said, remembering the attack in Hrajel. “This is about all Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Day after day, things are getting worse.”

Editor's note: This article has been updated since its initial publication.