You will remember that classic scene in Raiders of the Lost Ark when Indiana Jones is confronted by a smirking, cackling thug-assassin swathed in black and red and clutching a scimitar. The blade is shuffled from hand to hand, teased and flipped and twirled, its edge directed at every point of the compass whilst never threatening a kill.

And then Indy pulls out a gun and shoots.

That scene came to mind watching Bayern Munich against Real Madrid last week. Bayern's passing was swishy and elaborate, especially in the opening 18 minutes, but Madrid had a more emphatic weapon: pace. It was classic football rope-a-dope. Drop back, allow Bayern in, transform a low block into a fast break. 1-0, Karim Benzema.

Unlike in Raiders of the Lost Ark, one shot didn't end the argument. In fact, it reignited the debate over tiki-taka – which has flared up almost every April since Barcelona squeezed past Chelsea in Pep Guardiola's first season at the Camp Nou in 2009.

Last week, Guardiola admitted he had feared Madrid's "athleticism" and wanted a lot of possession. Of course he did. Keep-ball is core to his philosophy. You pity any child who accidentally boots a football over his fence. It is unlikely to come back.

Not everyone appreciates Guardiola's puritanism. There have been a few gleeful possession obituaries in recent days, which is odd given Spain and Barcelona's success since 2008 and the fact that Bayern are chasing a quintuple of Super Cup, Bundesliga, Club World Cup, German Cup and Champions League. But it is reasonable to ask this: how significantly has Guardiola changed Bayern's style, and how much does possession and pace matter?

That Bayern had 72% possession in the Bernabéu was startling, but it was only a touch higher than their average of 69.6% in the Champions League this season. The difference with Jupp Heynckes's treble-winners is considerable. Last year Bayern had 54.4% possession in the Champions League, a figure which dropped to just 48.6% in the knockout stages when they bazookaed Arsenal at the Emirates, and shredded Juventus 4-0 and Barcelona 7-0 on aggregate.

The contrast does not end there. Last season Bayern scored eight goals from set pieces; this season they haven't managed one. Heynckes's side also tackled and fouled more, and picked up twice as many yellow cards. They had spite as well as style. They weren't necessarily better, but they were certainly different.

Does this show that possession doesn't matter much? Not really. Keeping the ball is a measure of technical ability, and we know that teams with greater skill win more matches. Also, if you have the ball your opponents can't score.

However, possession statistics can be an unreliable indicator of performance. Since 2009-10, for instance, the team with the most possession has won only 63 of 142 Champions League knockout matches – a win percentage of 44% – with 26 draws and 53 defeats.

That is because possession changes depending on match state. In last season's Premier League, every team except Tottenham and Norwich had more of the ball when they were a goal down than when scores were level. And in every case a team's possession dropped further still when they went a goal ahead. When the score changes, so does the way sides play.

Win percentage by possession. Photograph: Prozone

As the Prozone analyst Omar Chaudhuri succinctly puts it, goals predict changes in possession much better than possession predicts changes in goals.

Can we be as definite about the impact of pace and counterattacking on success? Probably not. Still, we can say this. In the Champions League knockout stages since 2010, the team with the most fast breaks in a match – which Opta defines as a rapid attack which leads to a goal or big chance – have won 63% and lost just 19% of the time.

Second, making more sprints in the opposition half is closely linked to success. In the Premier League this season, Prozone's data shows that teams with the highest sprint distance in the opposition half have lost just 27% of the time. Of course, we have to be careful. Sides who spend more time attacking are likely to be better regardless, and therefore more likely to win. Also, this is not simple cause and effect: playing Britain's 4x100m relay squad would bump up a side's sprints while having a disastrous impact on their ability to win matches.

Even so, as Chaudhuri – who works with several Premier League clubs – points out, such data does capture how successful teams tend to attack.

Well-timed and well-directed sprints in the opposition half are more likely to create defensive imbalances and therefore goalscoring opportunities.

At their best Bayern – like Barcelona before them – blended possession with pace. There was not enough of the latter in the first leg. Too often it was like watching a game of pass the parcel where the music never stops. Long before the end you begged the carousel to play a different tune.

But this does not mean Guardiola's great riddle has been emphatically solved. While most expect Madrid's bullets to overcome Bayern's swordsmen on Tuesday, it is worth remembering that Borussia Dortmund scored two unanswered goals at home against Madrid recently.

Would it really be a surprise if Guardiola, football's greatest tinkerman, found a way through the eye of a needle again?