FREE NBA PICKS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

Hello my friends, I hope you had a nice weekend! We went 0-1-1 a couple of days ago (took yesterday off); thanks New York for blowing a 21-point lead at home. Do you feel sarcasm? Our record thus far:

5 star bets = 1-0

3 star bets = 3-1

2 star bets = 0-1-1

TOTAL: 4-2-1

I don’t see any major play Monday night, as I’ve got one 2-star bet and our first 1-star bet of the 2017-2018 season. Let’s see the details!

PICK #1: Charlotte Hornets +6.5 at Milwaukee Bucks (rated 2 stars)

From an injury standpoint, the Hornets are relatively banged up. The following four players are out for tonight: Nicolas Batum (their second highest scorer last year), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Michael Carter-Williams and Cody Zeller (Dwight Howard has been playing well, so his absence doesn’t hurt as much). On the Bucks’ side they will be without Jabari Parker until 2018.

Now, the good news if you are considering betting the Hornets. They have benefited from two full days of rest, while the Bucks will be playing a third game in four night (also a fourth over the past six days). Granted, they will be playing a third straight home game, so at least they didn’t have to travel.

The Hornets had won 11 of 13 meetings against Milwaukee before dropping the last two (both by a 10-point margin).

76% of the bets have gone on Milwaukee so far; I don’t necessarily advocate rushing to place your bet because the line might improve later on (it could inflate even more).

PICK #2: San Antonio Spurs -3 vs Toronto Raptors (rated 1 star)

San Antonio has had Toronto’s number recently, especially at home where they have won the last 8 meetings! The last 29 matchups overall have gone 23-6 in favor of the team from Texas.

There are some important injuries worth of note in this game. The Spurs’ leading scorer last year, Kawhi Leonard, is out with a quad injury, while Tony Parker will miss several weeks, also with a quad injury. I have subtracted 13% to the Spurs’ estimated win probability to account for those injuries. Meanwhile, Toronto’s starting center Jonas Valanciunas has been ruled out of tonight’s game with a sprained ankle. I have penalized Toronto by 4%.

The Raptors have won their first two games pretty easily, but they haven’t faced strong opposition (Joel Embiid was resting against them). The Spurs are also 2-0 after handling the Timberwolves and the Bulls.

70% of the wagers are going San Antonio’s way, so you may not want to wait too long if you wish to back them.

Thank you very much for reading!

Professor MJ