Baghdad Stops Flights to Erbil, Kurds Talk ‘Unilateral’ Independence

Tensions continued to soar over Iraqi Kurdistan’s vote for independence in a nonbinding referendum this week, as Baghdad stopped international flights into Kurdish airports and started taking control of border crossings, even as Kurdish officials talked of declaring independence “unilaterally.”

But the Iraqi central government, despite plenty of verbal saber-rattling, has yet to go for Kurdistan’s jugular by cutting off oil exports from the northern region, a move that would cripple Erbil’s finances and end any hopes of its survival as an independent state.

Meanwhile, U.S. defense officials are warning that the internecine struggle could distract Iraq and Kurdistan from the fight against the Islamic State, though so far U.S. officials said they’ve seen no sign of troop movements indicating a concrete shift in focus. Coalition officials also said that domestic, military, and humanitarian flights continue normally in Erbil.

The standoff has put the U.S. in an awkward spot. Before the referendum, the Trump administration sharply warned Erbil not to go ahead with the vote. But many observers suggest Washington’s hardline attitude may have emboldened Iraq, and they are calling on the United States to play a more active role in bringing the two sides back together.

State Department spokesperson Heather Nauert also seemed to open the door to a U.S. role in a briefing Thursday, saying, “The United States, if asked, would be willing to help facilitate a conversation between the two, but I want to be clear about that: if asked.”

But U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson reaffirmed a tough line toward Erbil in his own statement on Friday. “The United States does not recognize the Kurdistan Regional Government’s unilateral referendum held on Monday,” he said. “The vote and the results lack legitimacy and we continue to support a united, federal, democratic and prosperous Iraq.”

He also urged the KRG to “respect the constitutionally-mandated role of the central government.”

The tug-of-war over Baghdad’s authority over the whole country, especially when it came to signing oil contracts with foreign firms, helped nudge Iraqi Kurdistan toward independence. When international oil companies, including ExxonMobil — then led by Tillerson — ignored threats from Baghdad and signed contracts with Erbil, they helped give Kurds financial independence.

Now, Kurdish oil exports are again at the center of the showdown.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s office said Thursday that he had been told by Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim that Turkey would now only deal with Baghdad over oil exports from Iraq — potentially severing Iraqi Kurdistan’s financial independence; Turkey handles the international trade of Kurdish crude. As of Friday, though, the pipeline itself was still functioning normally and oil tankers were loading Kurdish crude as late as Thursday.

Several former government officials urged the United States to play a larger role in facilitating talks between the two sides. David Pollock, a former State Department official in the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations, said that Kurdish officials could be induced to compromise on a broad array of issues if Baghdad were brought to the table. But at this point, that is something Washington would have to make happen.

“Even the nature of independence [would be negotiable], if Baghdad agrees to sit down,” said Pollock, now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

However, U.S. criticism of the referendum results hasn’t only been limited to the diplomatic sphere. Defense officials have also fretted about still-unrealized knock-on effects in the fight against the Islamic State.

“I will say that prior to the referendum, there were no questions about where the focus was from the Iraqi security forces,” said anti-Islamic State coalition spokesman Col. Ryan Dillon from Baghdad on Thursday. “What I’ll say now is that there are a lot of posturing and a lot of things that have been said about what, you know, could or may happen.”

One such flashpoint could be the hotly contested city of Kirkuk. Iraq and Kurdistan have fought over the city for decades, but Kurdish troops seized it during the frenzy of the Islamic State’s offensive in Iraq in 2014.

Amy Jaffe, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that even though the coalition hasn’t been forced to alter its battle plans yet, the volatile politics around Kirkuk could offer fresh complications for the United states.

“Think about the conflict for the U.S. if Abadi decides that he wants to send troops to participate in some initiative around Kirkuk,” she said in a call with reporters.

“Do U.S. advisors participate? What is the U.S. policy towards advising or not advising some of these units?”

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