Will the Black Caps win, and will the MCG prove to be their Achilles heel?

Matthew Hayden stirred the age old trans-Tasman rivalry on Thursday when he suggested New Zealand would struggle at the big Melbourne Cricket Ground.

His argument was the Black Caps were "sitting in a comfort zone on New Zealand's small grounds" and could be found out by the massive MCG in Sunday's World Cup final.

"There were a number of times [in the semifinal] where the New Zealand batsmen appeared to be hitting big balls — but they'd be getting caught three quarters of the way to the fence at the MCG," he wrote.

The MCG - centre of Melbourne's sporting world - and therefore the actual centre of the world in many Australian eyes.

"They're going to have to change the way they hit the ball.

"Let's be honest, the size of Eden Park is ridiculous. It shouldn't be a cricket ground. If you can half throw it from the long off boundary to the opposite end it's too small."

We thought we would put those comments to the test with an analysis of whether the Black Caps sixes hit on both the tiny Eden Park during the semi-final, and the bigger Westpac Stadium during the quarter-final, would have cleared the MCG rope.

The MCG is undoubtedly a bigger ground. The boundaries run 130 metres long by 165m wide.

Westpac Stadium measures 141m by 121m (save another few metres for the boundary rope), while Eden Park is not a perfect circle but the boundary rope measures roughly 125m by 128m.

We took the International Cricket Council measurements for the 25 sixes hit by the Black Caps during the knockout phase and overlapped the two grounds with the MCG.

What could be see was that 15 (60 per cent) of the sixes would easily clear the rope, especially Martin Guptill's 110m behemoth which ended up on the Westpac Stadium roof.

Seven (28 per cent) of the sixes would have fallen short of the rope, while three (12 per cent) of them would have been touch and go.

What Hayden did not take into account with the sixes was the placement or the context with which they were hit.

Yes, Brendon McCullum's 66m six to backward square leg would fall short of the MCG boundary but it would easily pierce the gap between fine leg and square leg on any ground.

Three of the Eden Park sixes went to the club cricket favourite of "cow corner", where fielders are rarely placed in international cricket so they would also have gone for four.

Of the 10 sixes which were unlikely to clear the rope, no more than five of them would have found a fielder - and even that figure is generous.

New Zealand batsmen already know how to adapt to bigger grounds.

They hit harder and longer at Westpac Stadium, with 75 per cent of the sixes hit there also clearing the MCG rope.

At Eden Park they didn't swing as hard and just a third of sixes hit there would definitely have cleared the MCG boundary.

The fact that on the bigger ground of Westpac Stadium, 75 per cent of sixes hit would have cleared the MCG rope than the sixes hit at Eden Park, shows how the New Zealand batsmen adapt to bigger stadiums.

* What do you think? Will the Black Caps be able to cope with the bigger MCG?

* Correction: An earlier version of this story had the MCG pitch running along the length of the playing field, rather than the width. By switching the pitch orientation, it meant Matthew Hayden's comments were even more off, as one more six was likely to clear the rope at the MCG.