Is Sarah Palin going to run for the presidency in 2012? There are two big clues: everything she says and everything she does

Like many typical American families, Sarah Palin and her family spent the Memorial Day holiday weekend sightseeing – and kicking off a nationwide bus tour that will presumably culminate in the announcement of her 2012 presidential bid.

Although there remains a scintilla of doubt that Palin will actually go for the Republican presidential nomination, so far there are two big clues that she is running: everything she says and everything she does.

While the rest of America was eyeing the nearest swimming pool and firing up barbecues, Palin was joining a military veterans biker rally in DC – shouting "I love that smell of the emissions!" – followed by an early morning trip to see the Constitution at the National Archives, then a visit to George Washington's house at Mt Vernon, to be followed by a trip to Gettysburg battlefield.

Other than hand out bumper stickers saying "Palin for President", what more she could do? National "listening tours" are a staple of US presidential politics. This time Palin doesn't even have a book or a TV series to promote. That only leaves one thing to sell: her political future.



Palin's "One Nation" bus tour will, according to the scant details on her various outlets, visit "historic sites" and "patriotic events," and travel through New England "in the coming weeks".

Entirely unrelated fact: New England includes New Hampshire, which is the site of the first Republican presidential primary in early 2012.

With the bus tour and hagiographical documentary, I think at this point we can assume Palin is going to run for the Republican nomination, unless tourists at Gettysburg start pelting her with tomatoes (unlikely) or her bus runs over a cute kitten named Mr Mittens live on Fox News (improbable).

I've said it before: Palin would be crazy not to run for the Republican nomination. Just look at the rest of the field. Since evangelicals' sweetheart Mike Huckabee declined to run, the path is clear for Palin on the Tea Party/Christian wing. The three identikit Republican ex-governors running – Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman – squabble among themselves and split the centre-moderate-establishment vote. Palin crushes them all in South Carolina, the traditional Republican bellwether. Game over?

That scenario was sketched out for me by a Virginia Republican who is tepidly backing Romney – "Because there's no one else." He, like a lot of Republicans, is still waiting for a knight on a white horse to sweep into the race, Rick Perry of Texas being the most common name given to the knight, although Jeb Bush is also wistfully mentioned. The trouble is, time is running out and knights are in short supply.

How bad have things got for the Republican party? This bad: Rudy Giuliani is thinking about running. Yes, Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York City who failed spectacularly in his 2008 attempt after a campaign of bungling ineffectiveness.

As two leading candidates, Huckabee and Mitch Daniel, have announced they won't be running, so far the serious part of the GOP field has narrowed down to the law firm of Romney, Huntsman and Pawlenty, which individually or collectively generate little excitement among the grassroots. In fact, an obscure pizza magnate named Herman Cain and perennial candidate Ron Paul are showing more signs of a pulse. Paul retains the libertarian-leaning base that backed him with gusto in 2008, while Cain is the latest breath of fresh air, likely to soon go stale.

Back in 1988 the lacklustre field of Democratic presidential contenders was derided as "the seven dwarfs". They ended up with Michael Dukakis as the party's nominee. The 2012 Republicans go one better in that they have a Snow White in Alaska's former governor, alongside Pawlenty, Huntsman, Romney, Cain, Paul, Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum (the last two may as well not bother once Palin enters the contest).

The test as always with Palin is whether she can focus and harness the support she gets from her fanbase. Modern campaigns still rely upon generating enthusiasm – in part to raise money from donors, in part to knock on doors, but most importantly to inspire potential supporters to actually get out and vote in primaries. As the only Republican in the race with rock-star appeal, Palin can do all three. Whether she will or not – well, we'll soon find out.

Update: No sooner have I posted this blog than Real Clear Politics site reveals that Palin's tour will include Iowa, the site of the very first Republican contest in 2012:

Though Palin has insisted that her "One Nation" bus tour – being kicked off from Washington over the holiday weekend – is intended merely to "highlight America's foundation," RCP has learned that the road trip was designed as a test run to find out whether she can execute a decidedly unconventional campaign game plan.

She's running, right?