2013 College football countdown | No. 63: Louisiana Tech

Paul Myerberg | USA TODAY Sports

It was a banner season with three notable caveats. For one, the year did not include a Western Athletic Conference title, Louisiana Tech's primary goal heading into 2012. Two: The year ended without a postseason bid, amazingly enough, despite the Bulldogs' nine-win finish and flawless offensive credentials. Finally, and most of all, the offseason began without coach Sonny Dykes, who led Tech for three years before accepting a job as Jeff Tedford's replacement at California in early December.

So was 2012 truly a successful season for Louisiana Tech? Nine wins was the barometer for success; the Bulldogs won nine games. The offense was expected to be superb; the offense was predictably superb, without fail. The Bulldogs were expected to beat at least one automatic-qualifying opponent in September; they beat two, Virginia and Illinois.

And yet there are those three negatives. Successful? I'd say so, given that Tech matched most of its preseason expectations. But this team could have done much more, so much more, only to cost itself a potential Bowl Championship Series bid – if not merely a postseason bid – by botching WAC games against Utah State and San Jose State in November. A successful year, I suppose, though Tech left wins on the field.

LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION

The absolute baseline is seven wins. This would entail a 1-4 mark during conference play and an ugly loss against a WAC opponent, and I can't see that happening. The realistic guess is at least eight wins and likely nine, with a perfect mark during conference action and a win or two against the big names in September. But keep your eye on this team: Louisiana Tech will be in a BCS bowl if it knocks off A&M, Houston, Virginia and Illinois. Even if it doesn't, this is the class of the WAC and a 10-win contender.

2012 RECAP

— In a nutshell: No team was more exciting in victory or defeat: Louisiana Tech should live in our memories as the Gathers-and-Kimble-era Loyola Marymount University of college football, a gang that ran up and down the field with reckless abandon, trading point for point until their offensive best trumped your offensive best. The game I'll remember most was a loss, believe it or not. How can anyone forget Tech's date with Texas A&M, when the two teams combined for 1,293 yards of total offense, 64 first downs and 116 points? Or in September, when Houston and Tech set four NCAA records – most plays in regulation, most first downs, most completed passes and most pass attempts without an interception? Or the win against Idaho, when the Bulldogs racked up more than a mile of total offense? These were unforgettable games, win or lose; it's just a shame that things ended with such a whimper.

— High point: Every win was fantastic. Tech beat an AQ opponent (Virginia and Illinois) over back-to-back weeks in September, something not even Boise State has done before. I'm going to go with Idaho, a game where Tech set 13 – yes, 13 – school, conference and NCAA records. More on that in a moment.

— Low point: Losses to USU and SJSU to end the regular season – and the season, period, though no one could have expected Louisiana Tech to not land a spot in the postseason. As noted, the loss to Texas A&M was absolutely lovable.

— Tidbit: As noted, the Bulldogs set 13 school, conference and NCAA offensive records in its 70-28 win over Idaho. Here they are – and take a deep breath. The school records: first downs in a game (39), total offense in a game (839 yards), rushing scores in a game (eight), rushing touchdowns by a single player in a game (six), rushing touchdowns by a freshman in a season (16), PATs made in a season (49) and PATs attempted in a season (50). The WAC records: most points in a half (56), first downs in a game, most consecutive passes without an interceptions (275), most PATs in a game (10) and most PATs attempted in a game (10). Finally, quarterback Colby Cameron's streak of attempts without an interception also set an NCAA record.

— Tidbit (offense edition): A few more notes on Tech's prolific offense. The Bulldogs scored as many points against Texas A&M (57) as Alabama, Florida and Mississippi State combined. Tech scored 127 points over a 76-minute span against UNLV and A&M; that total was only 25 less than Massachusetts' total scoring output for the 2012 season. Tech was unstoppable against teams from Texas, scoring a combined 282 points – and never scoring less than 51 points – against A&M, Rice, Houston, UTSA and Texas State. The Bulldogs threw for 4,209 yards, or more than the total yardage gained by 23 FBS teams in 2012.

FORMER PLAYERS IN THE NFL

— 14: P Ryan Allen (New England), DE Matt Broha (New York Giants), QB Colby Cameron (Carolina), WR Taulib Ikharo (Carolina), OG Oscar Johnson (Tennessee), QB Luke McCown (New Orleans), OT Jordan Mills (Chicago), WR Quinton Patton (San Francisco), OG Kevin Saia (St. Louis), K Josh Scobee (Jacksonville), DT D'Anthony Smith (Jacksonville), CB Josh Victorian (Pittsburgh), WR Myles White (Green Bay), CB Tramon Williams (Green Bay).

ARBITRARY TOP FIVE LIST

— Worst current HBO scripted shows

1. The Newsroom

2. True Blood

3. Girls

4. Family Tree

5. Game of Thrones

COACHING

— Skip Holtz (Notre Dame '86), entering his first season. Holtz returns to his comfort zone, away from the bright lights – in a sense – of the Big East and back in Conference USA, where he first made his name over five successful seasons at East Carolina. While the league has changed, with several former members bolting for the American, Holtz returns to Conference USA with some degree of built-in familiarity. While most have harped on Tech's number of personnel losses, hiring a coach of Holtz's background and pedigree will help the Bulldogs offset many of its roster issues.

Holtz arrives after three seasons at South Florida, where he capped a disappointing turn with a three-win 2012 campaign. Each of his last two teams won five or fewer games; his first team, however, went 8-5 and challenged for a BCS bid. Most famously, Holtz built ECU into a Conference USA power. He lead the Pirates to back-to-back Conference USA championships in 2008 and 2009, as well as four consecutive bowl trips from 2006-9. His stature grew with each successive season at ECU, in direct correlation with his team's win total: 3-20 from 2003-4, the Pirates won five games in 2005, seven in 2006, eight in 2007 and nine games in both 2008 and 2009. In all, Holtz compiled a 37-27 record over five years with the Pirates.

He was hired following five years as the assistant head coach under his father at South Carolina, though he had previous head coaching experience at Connecticut from 1994-98 (33-23). In his final season, Holtz lead the Huskies to a 10-3 record and a national ranking in the final FCS poll. It is not hard to imagine why Holtz had a degree of success with ECU; in addition to working under his father with the Gamecocks and at Notre Dame (1990-93), Holtz coached under Bobby Bowden at Florida State (1987-88) and Earle Bruce at Colorado State (1989), compiling a career mark of 67-15-2 as an assistant. In Louisiana Tech, Holtz found a program suited to rebuild his reputation.

— Tidbit (coaching edition): Holtz retained defensive line coach Stan Eggen and linebackers coach Jeff Koonz from the previous staff. Both will work under new defensive coordinator Kim Dameron, a former Louisiana-Monroe coordinator and Mississippi assistant who spent the last two seasons at Cornell. On offense, Holtz will turn to coordinator Tony Petersen, a former assistant at Marshall who will implement the Thundering Herd's up-tempo, pass-heavy system – it's different than Dykes' style, but not wholly removed from last year's offense. Another new hire to watch is offensive line coach Matt Moore, who once served as Mike Leach's line coach at Texas Tech. Finally, this is amazing: Holtz hired Tim Rattay. I love it.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

— Offense: Things will change, but they won't change that much. You know what I mean? Tech will no longer have Dykes drawing plays up in the dirt, befuddling defenses from the ACC, Big Ten, SEC and elsewhere, but Petersen is from the same general tree: Tech will continue to utilize multiple receivers, will continue to roll from the passing game and will continue to throw for as many yards as any team in Conference USA – and as evidence, check out Marshall's offensive productivity over the last two seasons. While the Bulldogs will be far less prolific offensively than 2012, such is to be expected; the personnel changes are massive, for one, and there will be a transitional period to the new staff. But Tech will still be defined by its offense – and will still win games with its offense.

The difficult task of replacing Colby Cameron falls to Texas Tech transfer Scotty Young, a former major recruit who left Lubbock after losing a quarterback competition heading into the 2011 season. Louisiana Tech will reap the benefits: Young is built for this sort of offense, a quarterback-friendly system predicated on the passing game, and will easily rank among the top third in Conference USA in every major statistical category. In addition, while Young is raw in terms of game experience – he's yet to step on the field in a true situation – he was able to develop a rapport with Tech's skill players after spending last season on the scout team. While the Bulldogs have other options under center, there was never really a doubt that Young would eventually grab the starting role after Cameron's departure; while Holtz has not made an official decision, I'd be shocked if Young isn't Tech's answer come late August.

One thing Holtz and Moore did during spring drills was shuffle offensive linemen among every position, searching for the best starting five after the unit was decimated by graduation. When the dust clears in August, look for the staff to take a novel approach to finding a cohesive unit: Tech wants to start its best five linemen. Yes, it's a strange concept. The lone returning starter, Matthew Shepperd, can slot in at either guard, though he played on the strong side in 2012. The biggest void is at center, where Tech lost an all-conference pick – and team leader – in Stephen Warner; his replacement will be senior Alec Davis, a former JUCO transfer and last year's backup. The Bulldogs may eventually turn to a pair of JUCO transfers at tackle: Mitchell Bell, who joined the program this spring, could start at left tackle, and former JUCO addition Jeremy Graffree will take over at right tackle after missing last season due to injury. This group is going to struggle at times, but a few words of optimism: Tech hired a really good line coach in Moore; there's some experience along the interior; JUCO help will lend a hand at tackle; and Graffree would have earned serious playing time a year ago had he remained healthy.

Sophomore running back Kenneth Dixon is fresh off the finest season by a freshman back in FBS history: 1,194 yards, 5.97 yards per carry and an NCAA freshman-record 27 rushing scores. Yeah, he had a good year. Dixon will continue to put up numbers in this system, though it's difficult to imagine a continuation of last year's extreme productivity – as is the case with the entire offense. But he's clearly an elite Conference USA back, one capable of ripping off longer runs, carrying the offense on first down and moving the pile in short-yardage situations or in the red zone. What Tech needs is a viable secondary option, especially if sophomore Tevin King (369 yards) – who was the starter heading into last season – fails to make a full recovery from his September knee injury. For now, while King works his way back, Dixon will be spelled by junior Marlon Seets and sophomore Blake Martin, two unknowns.

— Defense: The strength of Dameron's first defense will be this front four, which returns three starters and should start four seniors. On a team undergoing some major changes, this level of continuity and experience cannot be overvalued – and let's not forget that Eggen still leads this group, giving Tech another returning asset up front. The Bulldogs return their top five ends from last season: All-WAC pick IK Enemkpali (32 tackles, 6.0 sacks), Kendrick James – the two seniors – junior Kevin Kisseberth (24 tackles, 2.5 sacks), sophomore Vontarrius Dora (39 tackles) and junior Andre Taylor (20 tackles, 2.5 for loss). Inside, Tech shouldn't struggle replacing Jon'al White, the team's lone departed starter – and not because White wasn't valuable. Tech's depth continues with at least a four-player rotation inside, one led by starters Shakeil Lucas (42 tackles) and Justin Ellis – two all-conference contenders – with JUCO transfer DeAngelo Brooks and sophomores Vernon Butler and Tyler Porter in reserve. What's the story up front? This is the most experienced defensive line in Conference USA and, in terms of total talent, no worse than the league's second-best unit.

That's the good news. The bad news is that things start to fall apart as you move to the back seven, where the Bulldogs return only a single full-time starter from a year ago – junior cornerback Le'Vander Liggins (50 tackles, 2 interceptions). But to say the Bulldogs are starting from scratch would be misleading: Liggins isn't the only player with past starting experience or the lone contributor with extensive game experience, even if we tweak the definition to include the handful of JUCO transfers Tech hopes to insert directly into starting roles. Look for several new additions to either grab a starting job outright or serve in key reserve roles; if nothing else, the JUCO recruits will help bridge the gap from Tech's lost starters to its talented but raw crop of underclassmen.

Liggins and sophomore Bryson Abraham (37 tackles), himself a five-game starter last season, give Tech adequate experience at cornerback and significant hope for the future, even if Abraham – based on how things ended last season – needs more time before reaching his full potential. Sophomore Kentrell Brice, a local product, will move into the top spot at strong safety, replacing one of the Bulldogs' most consistent defenders in Jamel Johnson. One thing to like: Brice has the athletic gifts this staff covets, but Holtz and Dameron should feel confident in junior Kendall Hayes' ability to fill the void should Brice struggle. While he'll need to hit the ground running in August, I expect JUCO transfer Terrell Pinson to eventually start at free safety – a spot currently shared, tenuously, by redshirt freshman Lloyd Grogan and former JUCO transfer C.J. Cleveland. Former walk-on Jabari Prewitt continues to impress; he'll be Tech's nickel back.

Tech will continue to slant toward a basic 4-2-5 set, with Prewitt the fifth defensive back. But Conference USA offenses will demand more from the 4-3, in my opinion, so look for more traditional base sets from the Bulldogs in 2013. Here's where the JUCO transfers come in: Nick Thomason and Mitchell Villemez have already grabbed starting roles heading into fall camp – Thomason in the middle, Villemez on the weak side. Junior Mike Schrang (46 tackles) would be a very serviceable third linebacker when Tech swaps out its extra defensive back. Unfortunately, Schrang is the closest to a sure thing on this whole group. Let's be positive: Koonz has put together very strong groups in each of the last three seasons despite battling injuries and attrition. I have a feeling he'll do the same in 2013.

— Special teams: Forget the offense, forget the defense, forget the coaching change. Tech's most striking decline in 2013 will come on special teams, where I think the Bulldogs will go from one of the nation's strongest groups to one of its weakest, if only because of the departure of punter Ryan Allen. In short, Allen's big leg and on-point directional prowess changed the complexion of several games over his wonderful college career. Add in his departure to the loss of kicker Matt Nelson and you have some serious rebuilding, even if the Bulldogs' return game remains largely intact. Tech will go from one of the great punters in recent FBS history to a number of unknowns, including two scholarship freshmen from February's class.

POSITION(S) TO WATCH

— Wide receiver: Ten Bulldogs made at least 12 receptions a season ago; only five return in 2013. Of the departed gang, none looms larger than Quinton Patton – with Patton quite easily one of the nation's finest skill players as a senior. While different than the previous system, Petersen's style doesn't differ greatly from the previous staff's offense: Tech still wants to run out of multiple-receiver sets and go seven or eight deep at the position. To maintain the essence of last year's production, Tech will rely heavily on the top three returning contributors: junior Hunter Lee (31 receptions for 398 yards) and seniors D.J. Banks (33 for 434) and Jon Greenwalt (24 for 210). Who will join this group? Keep an eye on sophomore Paul Turner, a former LSU transfer with perhaps the group's best blend of athleticism and pure receiving skills. In addition, Tech brings back a trio of experienced seniors in Andrew Guillot, Richie Casey and Lyle Fitte, the latter a former running back returning to action after missing last season. Is there a Patton in this group? No, not quite. But there's enough depth – with the aforementioned group joined by senior Scott Cathcart, JUCO transfer Eddie Johnson and another handful of freshmen – for Tech to run Petersen's offense to full capacity. In addition, the Bulldogs have a nice blend of speed (Banks, Turner and Lee) and size (Greenwalt).

GAME(S) TO WATCH

— Rice: I don't think any West Division team can hang with Tulsa, the prohibitive preseason favorite. Whether the Bulldogs can secure second place in the division likely hinges on a date with Rice, another West team with bowl aspirations. Whether Tech can reach bowl eligibility depends on its success against the weaker teams on this schedule; the Bulldogs can't afford a slipup against FIU, UTEP, North Texas or UTSA. The non-conference schedule is much easier than a year ago, though a loss seems likely against N.C. State in the opener. A 3-1 mark in non-conference play – which would mean a win at Kansas – would leave Tech in the position to win eight games during the regular season.

SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: Yeah, Tech's going to drop. Of course, right? A short list of what's gone: Dykes, Franklin, Cameron, Warner, Mills, Patton, Holley, Mitchum, Randle, Hester, Myles White, Jon'al White, Jamel Johnson, Oscar Johnson and Craig Johnson. That's quite a list. No team in college football lost more, from the sideline to the field; no team in the FBS seems less likely to match last season's success on offense or in the win column. Yet I still think this is a bowl team, a contender for eight wins and one of the top four teams in Conference USA.

Part of this has to do with talent: Tech has talent, has speed, athleticism and aggressiveness, even if the Bulldogs return only seven starters from a year ago. One example is at quarterback, where Young brings enormous potential to the table as a first-year starter. Likewise at wide receiver, where players like Banks, Fitte, Turner and Greenwalt will combine to keep this group among the top half of Conference USA – even if there's no replacing a player of Patton's caliber. Dixon is obviously a keeper at running back. The defensive line might be this league's best. The back seven is reworked, but there's no questioning the Bulldogs' speed at each level.

A few key factors: Tech's ability to grasp Petersen's offense; the JUCO transfers along the back seven; Bell, Graffree and Jens Danielsen at offensive tackle; and whether Holtz will step back and allow the offense to spread out and fit its personnel. In addition, it's important that Tech go at least 2-3 in September before turning to the heart of Conference USA play. So what's the big-picture story? This is a team with issues, obviously, but one with the talent and the schedule to win seven games in the regular season and make a trip back to the postseason.

— Dream season: Louisiana Tech tops Kansas and Army during non-conference play and knocks off every Conference USA foe but Tulsa to finish 10-2 in the regular season.

— Nightmare season: The Bulldogs struggle in the transition to a new coaching staff, beating only Lamar, UTEP, FIU and UTSA during the regular season.

— All-name team nominee: DE Kevin Kisseberth.

UP NEXT

— Who is No. 62? This program is very likely the only one in the FBS to use the word "oskie" in the locker room before every game.

2013 TEAM OVERVIEW

— Conference: Conference USA, West

— Location: Ruston, La.

— Nickname: Bulldogs

— Returning starters: 7 (3 offense, 4 defense)

— Last year's ranking: No. 33

— 2012 record: 9-3 (5-2)

— Last year's re-ranking: No. 32

— 2013 schedule:

Aug. 31 at N.C. State

Sept. 7 Lamar

Sept. 12 Tulane

Sept. 21 at Kansas

Sept. 28 vs. Army (in Dallas)

Oct. 5 at UTEP

Oct. 19 North Texas

Oct. 26 at Florida International

Nov. 9 Southern Mississippi

Nov. 16 at Rice

Nov. 23 Tulsa

Nov. 30 at UTSA

Paul Myerberg, a national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports, is on Twitter @PaulMyerberg.