U.S. Economy Added 188,000 Private-Sector Jobs in June, According to ADP National Employment Report ADP, Automatic Data Processing



ADP NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT REPORT: PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT INCREASED BY 188,000 JOBS IN JUNE



ROSELAND, N.J.  July 3, 2013  Private sector employment increased by 188,000 jobs from May to June, according to the June ADP National Employment Report®. The report, which is produced by ADP®, a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moodys Analytics, is derived from ADPs actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Mays job gains were revised downward to 134,000 from 135,000.



Goods-producing employment rose by 27,000 jobs in June, its largest increase in four months. Construction payrolls rose by 21,000 in June, its biggest gain since January, while manufacturers added 1,000 jobs following a two-month decline.



The service-providing sector added 161,000 jobs in June, its largest increase since February and greater than the sectors average gain of 146,000 through the first five months of the year. Among the service industries reported by the ADP National Employment Report, trade/transportation/utilities added the most jobs with 43,000 over the month  its strongest increase since the start of 2013. Professional/business services grew by 40,000 jobs, and financial activities added 13,000 jobs, nearly double the average monthly pace through the first five months of the year.



"During the month of June, the U.S. private sector added 188,000 jobs, driven by gains across all sizes of businesses, and with small companies showing the largest overall monthly increase," said Carlos A. Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. "Most notably, the goods-producing sector added 27,000 jobs in June, a marked improvement over the decline the previous month."











Read more:





http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/



http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2013/June/NER/NER-June-2013.aspx



== == == == ==



Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome viewers from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you ought to see this as much as anyone. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.



What is important about these statistics is not so much this months number, but the trend. So lets look at some earlier numbers.



BLS, for employment in April 2013:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/111634764

April payroll employment increases by 165,000; unemployment rate changes little (7.5%)



ADP, for employment in April 2013:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014470978

US Economy Added 119000 Private-Sector Jobs in April, According to ADP National Employment Report



BLS, for employment in March 2013:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014445294

March payroll employment edges up (+88,000); unemployment rate changes little (7.6%)



ADP, for employment in March 2013:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014442827

U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in March, According to ADP National Employment Report



BLS, for employment in February 2013:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014419050

February payroll employment rises (+236,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)



ADP, for employment in February 2013:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/111631869

U.S. Economy Added 198,000 Private-Sector Jobs in February, According to ADP Employment Report



BLS, for employment in January 2013:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014387295

January payroll employment rises (+157,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (7.9%)



ADP, for employment in January 2013:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014384927

U.S. Economy Added 192,000 Private-Sector Jobs in January, According to ADP National Employment Repo



BLS, for employment in December 2012:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014356331

December payroll employment rises (+155,000); unemployment rate unchanged (7.8%)



From The Wall Street Journal. of January 4, 2013:



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324374004578221291910741394.html

Economy Adds 155,000 Jobs







ADP, for employment in December 2012:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014354896

U.S. Economy Added 215,000 Private-Sector Jobs in December, According to ADP National Employment Report



BLS, for employment in November:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014328849

November payroll employment rises (+146,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)



ADP, for employment in November:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014326586

U.S. Economy Added 118,000 Private-Sector Jobs in November, According to ADP National Employment Rep



ADP, for employment in October:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014286714

U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in October, According to ADP National Employment Report



BLS, for employment in September:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=256565

U.S. Economy Added 114,000 Jobs In September, Unemployment Falls To 7.8%



and



http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=256816

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The Employment Situation - September 2012



The charge was made that Septembers BLS numbers were cooked. A fellow who used to head the BLS says this is not possible.



Impossible to Manipulate Labor Survey Data  Former BLS Head

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/10/05/impossible-to-manipulate-labor-survey-data-former-bls-head/



By Geoffrey Rogow



Even if the U.S. government wanted to manipulate monthly jobs figures, it would be impossible to accomplish, said a former head of the U.S. governments labor statistics agency.

.



But, Keith Hall, who served as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2008 until 2012, said in an interview Friday that there is no way someone at the agency could change any of the data from its two monthly employment surveys. The significant improvement in the unemployment rate may reflect normal statistical errors in the sampling process, he said, but that has nothing to do with manipulation.

.



Mr. Hall said the inconsistent reports reflect the different samples used in the two surveys, one focused on households the other on businesses. The establishment survey has a huge sample size of 141,000 business and agencies covering 486,000 worksites, whereas the household survey covers just 60,000 homes.



The household survey is much smaller. When you look at something like labor force and employment levels, the uncertainty of those numbers is much larger, said Mr. Hall. Within two months, the household survey could show the unemployment rate eking back up.

.



Eric Morath contributed to this article.



ADP, for employment in September:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014254238

U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs in September, According to ADP



BLS, for employment in August:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014221739

August payroll employment rises (+96,000); unemployment rate edges down (8.1%)



An increase of 96,000 is really lackluster. It's not just lackluster, but, as the first response says, "disappointing." It's half the ADP estimate. Here is a quote from yesterday's ADP news release:



August 2012 Report



Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 201,000 from July to August, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from June to July was revised up from the initial estimate of 163,000 to 173,000. Employment in the private, service-providing sector expanded 185,000 in August, up from 156,000 in July. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector added 16,000 jobs in August. Manufacturing employment rose 3,000, following an increase of 6,000 in July.



ADP, for employment in August:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014220380

The ADP National Employment Report August 2012



BLS, for employment in July:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289

July payroll employment rises (+163,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.3%)



ADP, for employment in July. I heard an estimate earlier this morning that the growth in employment would be on the order of 100,000.



The ADP National Employment Report July 2012



BLS, for employment in June:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014160067

Payroll employment continues to edge up in June (+80,000); jobless rate unchanged (8.2%)



Of particular importance for the BLS estimate for June was this article from that days Wall Street Journal.



Unemployment Line Longer Than It Looks‎



AHEAD OF THE TAPE

Updated July 5, 2012, 7:26 p.m. ET



By SPENCER JAKAB Here is a statistic for the politically inclined: No incumbent president has won re-election with an unemployment rate above 7.2% since the Great Depression.



Economists expect Friday's release of June employment data will show 95,000 new jobs added. Meantime, the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 8.2%. That may be bittersweet or just plain bitter depending on one's political slant, but it is difficult to reconcile today's rate with past periods.



The headline unemployment rate has been flattered by the number of people no longer counted in the denominator used to calculate it. For example, a comparison of jobs data between the start and end of 2011 shows the ranks of the unemployed fell by 822,000 while the number of people not in the labor force grew by a larger 1.24 million. The unemployment rate fell by 0.6 percentage points over that time to 8.5%.



In fact, the participation ratethe share of the working-age population either working or looking for workhas fallen by 2.3 percentage points over the four years through May to 63.8%, a three-decade low. Nearly 88 million peopleabout seven times the ranks of the officially unemployedaren't part of the headline rate's calculation.



Hmmm. Give that some thought. Also, when Mays figures were released, Judson Phillips of Tea Party Nation was on Tom Hartmann that Friday night. He kept referring to the "U-6 Number." That can be found in Table A15. It is "Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force." It appears in two forms, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted. Either way, it is the least optimistic of all the estimates.



Thanks to DUer alp227, you can watch Judson Phillipss appearance on Tom Hartmannn here:



ADP, for employment in June:



ADP jobs up 176,000 (for June)



BLS, for employment in May:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014133487

May payroll employment changes little (+69,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.2%)



ADP, for employment in May:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014132307

May change in employment +133,000



BLS, for employment in April:



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014113023

Payroll employment rises 115,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little (8.1%)



ADP and Gallup, for employment in April:



There were four related threads about the April jobs estimate at DU already. Three are in General Discussion, and they are based on the figures from ADP. The fourth, in LBN, paints a contrasting picture. It relies on the figures from Gallup.



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635553

Per CNBC - ADP Numbers bad, posted by Laura PourMeADrink



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635507

BAD: ADP JOBS REPORT MISSES EXPECTATIONS BY A MILE, posted by xchrom



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635837

ADP & TrimTabs Showing Much Weaker Payrolls Ahead of Unemployment Report, posted by marmar



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014111465

U.S. Job Creation Nears Four-Year High, posted by brooklynite



There's a joke about economists in there somewhere.



March, BLS:



Payroll employment rises 120,000 in March; unemployment rate changes little (8.2%)

March, ADP:



Businesses Adding 209,000 New Jobs Last Month Fail To Ignite Market Rally



February, ADP:



, posted by Gruntled Old Man



One more thing:



So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.



http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator



Well, enough of that. On with the show.



As it has been written: The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away. Source:ADP NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT REPORT: PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT INCREASED BY 188,000 JOBS IN JUNEROSELAND, N.J.  July 3, 2013  Private sector employment increased by 188,000 jobs from May to June, according to the June ADP National Employment Report®. The report, which is produced by ADP®, a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moodys Analytics, is derived from ADPs actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Mays job gains were revised downward to 134,000 from 135,000.Goods-producing employment rose by 27,000 jobs in June, its largest increase in four months. Construction payrolls rose by 21,000 in June, its biggest gain since January, while manufacturers added 1,000 jobs following a two-month decline.The service-providing sector added 161,000 jobs in June, its largest increase since February and greater than the sectors average gain of 146,000 through the first five months of the year. Among the service industries reported by the ADP National Employment Report, trade/transportation/utilities added the most jobs with 43,000 over the month  its strongest increase since the start of 2013. Professional/business services grew by 40,000 jobs, and financial activities added 13,000 jobs, nearly double the average monthly pace through the first five months of the year."During the month of June, the U.S. private sector added 188,000 jobs, driven by gains across all sizes of businesses, and with small companies showing the largest overall monthly increase," said Carlos A. Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. "Most notably, the goods-producing sector added 27,000 jobs in June, a marked improvement over the decline the previous month."Read more: http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2013/June/NER/NER-June-2013.aspx == == == == ==Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome viewers from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you ought to see this as much as anyone. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.What is important about these statistics is not so much this months number, but the trend. So lets look at some earlier numbers.BLS, for employment in April 2013:April payroll employment increases by 165,000; unemployment rate changes little (7.5%)ADP, for employment in April 2013:US Economy Added 119000 Private-Sector Jobs in April, According to ADP National Employment ReportBLS, for employment in March 2013:March payroll employment edges up (+88,000); unemployment rate changes little (7.6%)ADP, for employment in March 2013:U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in March, According to ADP National Employment ReportBLS, for employment in February 2013:February payroll employment rises (+236,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)ADP, for employment in February 2013:U.S. Economy Added 198,000 Private-Sector Jobs in February, According to ADP Employment ReportBLS, for employment in January 2013:January payroll employment rises (+157,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (7.9%)ADP, for employment in January 2013:U.S. Economy Added 192,000 Private-Sector Jobs in January, According to ADP National Employment RepoBLS, for employment in December 2012:December payroll employment rises (+155,000); unemployment rate unchanged (7.8%)Fromof January 4, 2013:Economy Adds 155,000 JobsADP, for employment in December 2012:U.S. Economy Added 215,000 Private-Sector Jobs in December, According to ADP National Employment ReportBLS, for employment in November:November payroll employment rises (+146,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)ADP, for employment in November:U.S. Economy Added 118,000 Private-Sector Jobs in November, According to ADP National Employment RepADP, for employment in October:U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in October, According to ADP National Employment ReportBLS, for employment in September:U.S. Economy Added 114,000 Jobs In September, Unemployment Falls To 7.8%andU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The Employment Situation - September 2012The charge was made that Septembers BLS numbers were cooked. A fellow who used to head the BLS says this is not possible.Impossible to Manipulate Labor Survey Data  Former BLS HeadADP, for employment in September:U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs in September, According to ADPBLS, for employment in August:August payroll employment rises (+96,000); unemployment rate edges down (8.1%)An increase of 96,000 is really lackluster. It's not just lackluster, but, as the first response says, "disappointing." It's half the ADP estimate. Here is a quote from yesterday's ADP news release:ADP, for employment in August:The ADP National Employment Report August 2012BLS, for employment in July:July payroll employment rises (+163,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.3%)ADP, for employment in July. I heard an estimate earlier this morning that the growth in employment would be on the order of 100,000.BLS, for employment in June:Payroll employment continues to edge up in June (+80,000); jobless rate unchanged (8.2%)Of particular importance for the BLS estimate for June was this article from that daysHmmm. Give that some thought. Also, when Mays figures were released, Judson Phillips of Tea Party Nation was on Tom Hartmann that Friday night. He kept referring to the "U-6 Number." That can be found in Table A15. It is "Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force." It appears in two forms, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted. Either way, it is the least optimistic of all the estimates.Thanks to DUer alp227, you can watch Judson Phillipss appearance on Tom Hartmannn here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289#post12 ADP, for employment in June:BLS, for employment in May:May payroll employment changes little (+69,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.2%)ADP, for employment in May:May change in employment +133,000BLS, for employment in April:Payroll employment rises 115,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little (8.1%)ADP and Gallup, for employment in April:There were four related threads about the April jobs estimate at DU already. Three are in General Discussion, and they are based on the figures from ADP. The fourth, in LBN, paints a contrasting picture. It relies on the figures from Gallup.Per CNBC - ADP Numbers bad, posted by Laura PourMeADrinkBAD: ADP JOBS REPORT MISSES EXPECTATIONS BY A MILE, posted by xchromADP & TrimTabs Showing Much Weaker Payrolls Ahead of Unemployment Report, posted by marmarU.S. Job Creation Nears Four-Year High, posted by brooklyniteThere's a joke about economists in there somewhere.March, BLS:March, ADP:February, ADP: ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 216,000 Jobs in February , posted by Gruntled Old ManOne more thing:So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs CalculatorWell, enough of that. On with the show.As it has been written: The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away. 5 Tweet