The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology – Senior Analyst at I Know First.

Summary:

This holiday quarter should see a notable increase in Apple’s hardware sales. Apple’s flat lining iPhone unit sales desperately needs a boost. Amazon recently agreed to sell Apple Watches, iPhones, and iPad tablets in its U.S. and international online stores. Amazon agreed to become an official Apple reseller. Amazon will delist unauthorized resellers of Apple products using its platform by January 4, 2019. Amazon touts more than 100 million Prime subscribers. They are all desirable potential customers for Apple products. Buying online is faster than queuing up at an Apple retail store. I still rate AAPL as a buy.



The $750 iPhone XR is reportedly not selling as well as expected. Based on Apple’s latest earnings report, iPhone unit sales are flat. Global sales of tablets are also shrinking. It is therefore a great relief to learn that Apple successfully persuaded Amazon (AMZN) to sell iPhones and iPads in America and other countries.

Amazon is the third-ranked vendor of tablets with its Fire Android products. It pleases me that Amazon agreed to be a direct reseller of iPads.

(Source: Statista)

Why Apple Needs Amazon

I previously harped about it many times – AAPL’s price movement is largely dictated by how many units of iPhones it sold. AAPL dipped post-earnings last November 2nd because investors are scared that iPhone sales have peaked. The management’s decision to no longer report unit sales of iPhones going forward is worrisome for some investors. It was perceived as tacit admission that iPhone unit sales has really peaked. The mood now is that Apple can no longer rely on the iPhone for growth.

(Source: Statista)

The dip in Apple’s valuation to below $1 trillion confirmed that investors care more for iPhone unit sales than any other metrics. It did not matter that Apple finished its FY 2018 with record revenue and profit. In spite of the flat lining unit sales of the iPhone, Apple’s $265.59 billion in FY 2018 revenue was still 15.86% Y/Y higher. The annual net income of $59.53 billion was +23.12% Y/Y.

The pessimism over AAPL has gave it a lower EV/EBITDA valuation than MSFT and GOOG. This undervaluation is in spite of AAPL’s superior balance sheet and revenue/net income performance. Apple is clearly the better value play than its peers.

(Source: Seeking Alpha)

Going forward, Apple’s stock could rise again because of Amazon helping it sell more units of the iPhone and the iPad. Apple may no longer divulge specific quarterly unit sales for its products, but growth could still be surmised through improved revenue over the next succeeding years.

Apple already has more than 500 retail stores around the world. However, Amazon touts more than 100 million Prime subscribers. They are all potential customers of Apple’s pricey products. There is also the strong possibility of Amazon offering subsidised price tags for the Apple Watch, iPhone, and iPad to select Prime subscribers. Going forward, this potential Amazon subsidy could increase Apple’s hardware sales.

This partnership is also perfect timing for this upcoming Christmas shopping season. People around the world will be receiving their 13th-month pay and Christmas bonuses. Millions of Amazon shoppers will be capable of buying the most ‘affordable’ $750 iPhone XR.

A survey last July 2017 revealed that 59% of American respondents with income of $75K to $99K are Amazon Prime subscribers. Amazon’s Prime subscriber base definitely has wealthy individuals who can easily afford the most expensive Apple product. Statista’s chart below clearly illustrates that many Amazon Prime members are perfect targets for the new pricey iPhones and iPad Pros.

(Source: Statista)

Conclusion

It is a long-term tailwind for Apple that Amazon has agreed to become an authorised reseller of Apple watches, phones, and tablets. Amazon will also delist non-official resellers of Apple products on its marketplace by January 4, 2019. By eliminating unauthorised resellers on Amazon’s websites, Apple is assured of price uniformity for all of its products sold. Eliminating price-cutting third-party sellers can improve Apple’s topline and bottom-line. It is an open secret that many unscrupulous individuals and organisations resell deeply-discounted stolen iPhones/iPads on online stores like Amazon.

Amazon is now also a massive sales channel for refurbished iPhones and iPads that Apple needs to unload. These refurbished products are from Apple’s own trade-in program. Apple practices device trade-ins so it could sell newer, more expensive models. The exchanged phones, tablets, and computers that Apple has stockpiled can be quickly monetised through Amazon.

I rate AAPL as a buy. This stock also has a bullish one-year forecast from I Know First. The high 0.81 predictability score means I Know First has a long track record of correctly predicting the 12-month price trend of Apple’s stock.

The vibe from monthly technical indicators and moving averages trends are in favor of going long on AAPL right now.

(Source: Investing.com)

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Past I Know First Success with Apple Stock Prediction

I Know First has made accurate AAPL stock predictions in the past bullish forecast from August 22, 2017.

The article discussed possible acceleration of Apple’s research on Augmented Reality and self-driving car technologies as those are considered to be future diversification areas for Apple. Some key financial aspects were analyzed, including posting of a new record high of $162.51 at the end of August 2017. Finally, we expected that Apple coming up with a real major upgrade to the iPhone 7 could propel the stock to a new 52-week high. Since the forecast’s release, where the bullish signal of 131.7 was identified by the algorithm with predictability rate of 0.61, Apple Inc. stock price surged that high that on August 2, 2018 the company’s market capitalization became more than $1T and ended up on August 22, 2018 with stock price increase by 38.86%.

How to read the I Know First Heatmap

This bullish forecast for AAPL was sent to the current I Know First subscribers on August 22, 2017.