Houston’s home values may be at their peak.

According to Zillow, the housing market is already on its way down. The real estate website released a report Thursday morning saying Houston-area home values fell 0.3 percent in April from the month before.

Nationally, home prices have been growing by less each month since March 2018, but they were still on the rise, according to the Case-Shiller Price Index of home values. That changed last month when, for the first time since February 2012, Zillow’s data show home values nationwide fell 0.1 percent month-over-month.

“This most certainly hasn’t happened in a long time,” said Skylar Olsen, Zillow’s director of economic research. “It’s not common. And it’s definitely not common for it to happen without a recession to match it.”

While past downturns were caused by a combination of job loss and predatory loans, this one is being driven by prices rising more quickly than buyers can afford.

PRIME PROPERTY: Sign up to get Houston's real estate and development news sent your email at HoustonChronicle.com

“This truly is a market adjustment,” Olsen said. “Home values grew incredibly quickly. You shook some people: ‘Oh, can I afford to actually buy a home at this moment? Perhaps now is not the time to buy.’”

While economists are unsure how long the correction will last or how significant it will be, many agree that it is coming.

“Dallas, Houston and Denver are some of the most overpriced markets in the country,” said Ken H. Johnson, a real estate economist who created the Beracha, Hardin & Johnson Buy vs. Rent Index, which compares the returns of someone who buys a home to the returns of someone who rents a similar quality home and invests the money that would have otherwise been put toward homeownership. The most recent index found that market conditions in Houston placed significant downward pressure on the demand for homeownership.

However, Olsen and Johnson also agreed that the correction will be nothing like the 2008 housing bubble.

“Will this be a catastrophe, like 2009 was for the rest of the country? Probably not,” Johnson said. “You’re not going to see the foreclosure in massive droves. You’re going to see property appreciation stop. You’re going to see a hard time selling your house.”

Javier Vivas, director of economic research for the National Association of Realtors, said the longterm trend in Houston’s housing market has been a gradual decline. The number of homes on the market have been rising, and the average time it took to sell a home has been growing longer.

Large numbers of homes have also been selling for less than their list price. And even though mortgage rates have fallen since November, sales volumes were not growing quickly.

“Altogether, those are signs that the market is slowing,” Vivas said.

But Vivas pointed out a softening market probably won’t impact all homes equally.

“You could look at existing homes and even the condo market, and you could see those slow down,” he said.

The exception to the trend are new, entry-level single-family homes.

“The new home market, particularly the entry level, could perform very well,” Vivas said. “The demand is there.”