With a European summit looming, the Brexit negotiators of all sides are agreed on only one thing – there are just a few days left to do a deal. And in these few days there are three key decision makers who will effectively determine the outcome.

One, of course, is Boris Johnson himself. The second is Arlene Foster, leader of the DUP, whose support is needed to pass a deal through the current Parliament. The third is the Irish Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar. However much attention is paid to the pronouncements of other governments around Europe, they are not going to force Ireland into a compromise it doesn’t want, nor resist a deal with which it is happy. So on the EU side, the fate of a deal will be decided in Dublin.

These three leaders are not currently on course to make a deal, although they all need one more desperately than they would like to admit. For Boris, not reaching agreement this week means fighting an election advocating a no-deal Brexit or perhaps, by some slim chance or crafty manoeuvre in the final days of October, having accomplished it. Neither is attractive for anyone wanting to be confident of winning a Conservative majority.