by Aaron Schatz

Our top two teams on bye means our top two teams stay the same this week, with the Kansas City Chiefs still No. 1 in DVOA, followed by the Los Angeles Rams. The New Orleans Saints move up to the No. 3 spot thanks to a big Thanksgiving night win over the Atlanta Falcons. In weighted DVOA, which drops the strength of September games, the Saints and Rams are essentially tied at No. 2.

I've written a lot in the last couple weeks about the disagreements between DVOA and other advanced metrics, which now tend to have the Saints at No. 1. But the difference between DVOA and other advanced metrics may be bigger for the Chiefs than it is for the Saints. And that huge difference between the Chiefs and the Rams/Saints in DVOA is also responsible for the huge difference between the Chiefs and Rams/Saints in our odds for winning Super Bowl LIII.

To see how much, I ran an additional simulation this week which gave the Chiefs the same weighted DVOA as the Rams and Saints (31.1%). In that simulation, Kansas City's chances of representing the AFC in Super Bowl LIII drop from 53.7 percent to 42.5 percent. We still would give the Chiefs the strongest odds of winning the Super Bowl, because unlike the Saints or Rams, they don't have to play the Saints or Rams on their way to Atlanta. But they wouldn't have the strongest odds by much:

Team Original

Simulation If KC = NO/LAR

Simulation KC 31.9% 22.4% LAR 20.4% 22.0% NO 19.9% 21.5% NE 5.4% 7.0% CHI 5.1% 5.9% LAC 4.8% 6.3% PIT 4.0% 5.0% HOU 3.3% 4.0% Others 5.2% 5.9%

The difference between the Rams and the Saints here has to do with remaining schedule, even though the Saints currently have the No. 1 seed thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Rams have the easiest remaining schedule in the league by average DVOA of opponent, while the Saints' schedule ranks 14th. That being said, the Rams have the hardest remaining single game, playing at Chicago in Week 14. The Saints' hardest remaining opponent, Pittsburgh, is a little bit below the Bears in DVOA and will come to New Orleans instead of the Saints going on the road.

While we're on the subject of the Saints, let's talk about the Saints defense. Last year, after a slow start, the Saints ended up with one of the best defenses in the NFL. The same thing seems to be happening this year. Thanks in part to the opponent adjustments for playing Atlanta, the Saints had the highest single-game defensive DVOA of Week 12 at -50.7%. It was their best defensive performance of the year, and emphasizes a major change in defense since their Week 6 bye. In Weeks 1-5, the Saints ranked 26th with 9.4% defensive DVOA. (Remember, defense means more scoring so a positive number is worse.) In Weeks 7-12, the Saints rank fifth in the NFL with -10.7% DVOA.

I took a look through other numbers on both offense and defense and found teams that have improved significantly in recent weeks. First, on offense:

Indianapolis was at -12.1% DVOA on offense through Week 6, 24th in the NFL. Since Week 7, the Colts have 26.5% offensive DVOA, fifth in the NFL.

Pittsburgh's turnaround was earlier. For September, through Week 4, the Steelers had 0.6% offensive DVOA, 16th in the NFL. Since Week 5, the Steelers rank fifth with 22.0% DVOA.

Cleveland's inflection point is actually Week 8 against Pittsburgh, before Todd Haley and Hue Jackson were let go. In Weeks 1-7, the Browns had -26.8% offensive DVOA, which ranked 30th. For Weeks 8-12, the Browns have 16.5% offensive DVOA, which ranks eighth. Every Cleveland game since Week 8 has had a better offensive DVOA than each of the seven games prior to Week 8.

And two improved defenses besides New Orleans:

Minnesota ranked 25th through Week 5 with 6.7% defensive DVOA. In Weeks 6-12, Minnesota has the No. 1 defensive DVOA in the league at -23.1%.

Denver ranked 22nd through Week 5 with -0.2% defensive DVOA. In Weeks 6-12, Denver has the No. 2 defensive DVOA in the league at -22.4%.

There are also defenses that have faltered over the last few weeks, including Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Seattle... and Buffalo. Although the Bills are second in defensive DVOA for the entire season, that splits into -24.6% in Weeks 1-6, first in the league, and -2.8% in Weeks 7-12, 10th in the league.

Of course, not everything in Buffalo is getting worse. Their offense has suddenly gotten much, much better. So much better. Prior to Week 10, the Bills didn't have a single game with offensive DVOA above -20%. But Buffalo managed to score a single-game offensive rating above 20% in both Week 10 and Week 12. That improvement has them almost sliding off our list of the worst offenses in DVOA history.

WORST OFFENSIVE DVOA

THROUGH 11 GAMES, 1986-2018 1992 SEA -44.3% 2005 SF -43.7% 2010 CAR -43.1% 2002 HOU -42.3% 2013 JAX -39.9% 2018 ARI -39.6% 2004 CHI -39.3% 2004 MIA -39.2% 1997 NO -38.9% 2018 BUF -37.9% 2008 STL -35.8% 1992 IND -35.5%

I feel like the Bills have really ruined my fun, because it was kind of cool seeing a team put up a (when adjusted for era) historically bad offense. But this is not something I have against the Bills in particular. If the Bills want to continue playing actual good offense and the Arizona Cardinals want to suck extra hard in December to get down below -40%, that would be fun to watch too. And by "fun to watch," I mean fun to monitor the stats, not fun to actually watch on television. Arizona has yet to put up a positive offensive DVOA in any game this year, although the Cardinals' 28-18 Week 5 win over San Francisco comes very close.

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Once again this season, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 19 on a monthly basis. Today, we get to announce the Football Outsiders November players for Madden Ultimate Team on consoles, which will go live at 10:30am Eastern on Sunday. These players will also go live in Madden Overdrive for mobile devices sometime soon.

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE: Second in passing DVOA for November (65-of-88, 771 yards, 9 TD, 1 INT).

Second in passing DVOA for November (65-of-88, 771 yards, 9 TD, 1 INT). HB Phillip Lindsay, DEN: Third in rushing DYAR for November (42 carries, 249 yards, 3 TD).

Third in rushing DYAR for November (42 carries, 249 yards, 3 TD). TE Nick Vannett, SEA: Fifth among tight ends in receiving DYAR for November (10-of-14, 99 yards, 2 TD).

Fifth among tight ends in receiving DYAR for November (10-of-14, 99 yards, 2 TD). LG Quenton Nelson, IND: Colts ranked second with 5.97 adjusted line yards per carry on left-side runs in November; allowed just one sack.

Colts ranked second with 5.97 adjusted line yards per carry on left-side runs in November; allowed just one sack. RG Larry Warford, NO: Saints ranked fourth with 5.46 adjusted line yards per carry in November; allowed just two sacks.

Saints ranked fourth with 5.46 adjusted line yards per carry in November; allowed just two sacks. RE Mario Addison, CAR: Tied for third in NFL with 8 defeats in November (7 TFL including 3 sacks, plus tackle to prevent third-down conversion).

Tied for third in NFL with 8 defeats in November (7 TFL including 3 sacks, plus tackle to prevent third-down conversion). RE Chris Jones, KC: Led NFL with 10 defeats in November: 5 sacks, two third-down PDs, two run TFL, and run tackle to prevent third-down conversion.

Led NFL with 10 defeats in November: 5 sacks, two third-down PDs, two run TFL, and run tackle to prevent third-down conversion. LOLB Leighton Vander Esch, DAL: Second in NFL with 45 total plays made and 6 passes defensed in November.

Second in NFL with 45 total plays made and 6 passes defensed in November. CB Steven Nelson, KC: Only allowed 4.4 yards per pass in November by Sports Info Solutions charting, 4 PD, 2 INT.

Only allowed 4.4 yards per pass in November by Sports Info Solutions charting, 4 PD, 2 INT. CB Coty Sensabaugh, PIT: Only allowed four catches for 45 yards (and 3.2 yards per pass) in November according to Sports Info Solutions charting.

Only allowed four catches for 45 yards (and 3.2 yards per pass) in November according to Sports Info Solutions charting. K Justin Tucker, BAL: 8-for-8 including two FG over 45 yards; 71 percent touchback rate.

8-for-8 including two FG over 45 yards; 71 percent touchback rate. P Tress Way, WAS: Second in NFL with 44.7 net average in November; first in league with 7.4 points of estimated field position value on gross punts.

(Note: Late change here, as we had to remove Roquan Smith from our list of players for this month, we're subbing in Kansas City cornerback Steven Nelson.)

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Playoff odds are currently updated through Week 12, as well as the FO Premium DVOA database and snap counts.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 12 weeks of 2018, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

RK TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEI.

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 KC 41.6% 1 42.4% 1 9-2 38.4% 1 5.2% 25 8.5% 1 2 LAR 32.6% 2 31.1% 2 10-1 31.5% 2 -1.1% 17 0.1% 17 3 NO 27.1% 4 31.1% 3 10-1 23.4% 4 -1.5% 14 2.2% 9 4 LAC 26.2% 5 28.2% 4 8-3 26.4% 3 -5.5% 9 -5.7% 32 5 CHI 21.1% 3 20.9% 6 8-3 2.7% 14 -22.5% 1 -4.0% 29 6 DEN 19.7% 7 21.8% 5 5-6 8.8% 9 -12.5% 3 -1.6% 23 7 PIT 14.5% 6 17.0% 7 7-3-1 14.2% 6 -2.4% 12 -2.1% 25 8 BAL 14.2% 9 12.7% 9 6-5 1.6% 15 -9.9% 5 2.7% 6 9 NE 11.6% 10 13.5% 8 8-3 12.3% 7 0.8% 19 0.2% 16 10 GB 11.5% 8 11.5% 10 4-6-1 14.7% 5 1.6% 20 -1.5% 22 11 SEA 9.5% 12 10.3% 11 6-5 5.1% 11 -2.8% 11 1.5% 11 12 HOU 7.7% 14 8.5% 14 8-3 -6.6% 21 -12.0% 4 2.2% 8 13 IND 7.0% 11 8.7% 13 6-5 4.5% 12 -1.2% 16 1.4% 13 14 MIN 6.7% 13 8.9% 12 6-4-1 -0.5% 17 -9.8% 6 -2.6% 26 15 CAR 5.4% 15 5.4% 15 6-5 10.7% 8 5.8% 26 0.6% 15 16 JAX -5.4% 17 -7.6% 17 3-8 -15.4% 28 -7.0% 7 3.0% 5 17 WAS -7.0% 16 -8.3% 18 6-5 -11.2% 25 0.1% 18 4.4% 3 18 MIA -7.3% 20 -9.0% 19 5-6 -8.8% 23 2.8% 21 4.3% 4 19 CIN -8.1% 19 -10.6% 23 5-6 0.4% 16 9.3% 28 0.7% 14 20 NYG -8.2% 21 -7.4% 16 3-8 -2.2% 18 8.6% 27 2.6% 7 21 DAL -9.6% 22 -9.4% 20 6-5 -9.4% 24 -1.5% 13 -1.7% 24 22 ATL -9.6% 18 -10.2% 21 4-7 8.6% 10 19.6% 32 1.4% 12 23 CLE -11.9% 25 -10.4% 22 4-6-1 -12.7% 26 -6.3% 8 -5.5% 31 24 PHI -12.0% 23 -11.6% 24 5-6 -6.3% 20 4.2% 24 -1.4% 21 25 TEN -14.9% 24 -14.4% 25 5-6 -13.2% 27 3.7% 22 1.9% 10 26 TB -18.5% 28 -18.9% 26 4-7 3.3% 13 18.8% 31 -3.0% 27 27 NYJ -18.7% 27 -19.4% 27 3-8 -25.7% 30 -1.2% 15 5.8% 2 28 SF -24.0% 26 -25.2% 30 2-9 -16.9% 29 4.1% 23 -3.1% 28 29 DET -24.1% 29 -22.8% 29 4-7 -7.2% 22 16.1% 30 -0.8% 19 30 BUF -24.6% 31 -21.8% 28 4-7 -38.3% 31 -14.8% 2 -1.0% 20 31 OAK -27.2% 30 -30.1% 31 2-9 -6.1% 19 15.8% 29 -5.3% 30 32 ARI -37.4% 32 -37.9% 32 2-9 -39.6% 32 -2.9% 10 -0.7% 18

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).