All of the Florida Panthers fan pages I frequent have become an incorrigible sea of whining and complaining about the firing of Gerard Gallant and (still) the trading of Erik Gudbranson. There is no convincing those who disagree with the firing, and after many months of trying, there is still no convincing those who disagree with the trade. At this point the fan-base seems to be thoroughly divided between one or the other.

As you could probably guess from the title, I agreed with the Gudbranson trade, and while I believe the Gallant firing was very poorly timed and the ensuing scandal made the optics of the move look even worse, I also believe that the rift between the ownership’s methodology and that of the coach made such a move inevitable, even if Gallant did sign an extension at the beginning of the year in the middle of the Panthers’ notable 12-game win streak. Maybe I’ll touch on Gallant some other time, but for now it’s Gudbranson’s turn.

I want this blog post to lay out the reasons why I believe trading Erik Gudbranson is justified by the organization. After 25ish games, there are many fans who feel like letting him go was a mistake. I’m going to do my best to view the decision from the perspective of the clubhouse and operations, not from those of a fan. This might be a futile effort, because I’m a fan myself and not privy to the inner decision-making of the team, but that’s for you to decide, dear reader. Hopefully I can change your mind.

Trade by Numbers:

In late May of this year, the Panthers sent Erik Gudbranson and a fifth-round draft pick to Vancouver in exchange for Jared McCann, a second-round pick, and a fourth-round pick. Capfriendly (RIP General Fanager) lists Gudbranson’s salary at exactly $3.5 million. Let’s see what that $3.5 million gets Vancouver:

GP G A P +/- CF% 25 0 3 3 -13 49.9%

Citation

Not Much, apparently.

Through a quarter of the season, Gudbranson is not contributing to the offense, netting just 3 points in 25 games. He’s a minus 13, and is neither driving play nor stifling it with a relatively even CF%. From an admitted layman’s perspective when it comes to the numbers, Gudbranson is an average to below average shutdown d-man on an awful team. Per his HERO chart, he is a third pairing or depth player making way too much money and playing a top-4 role that he is not good enough to occupy. His offensive numbers certainly don’t justify his appearance in the top-4 either, but the Canucks lacks of depth on defense explains the gap.

The team isn’t awful because Gudbranson is on it, but the fact that the Canucks gave away one of their few prospects with potential as well as an early round draft pick doesn’t bode well for the team. The Canucks needed defense at the end of last season, when Dan Hamhuis, Matt Bartkowski, Yannick Weber (no stars there, either) were scheduled to become UFA’s. Jim Benning’s answer was to overpay for a middling-to-mediocre shut-down D-man with a good prospect and draft picks.

Philosophy of the Org: Bad for Gudbranson



From the Panther’s perspective Gudbranson was not a fit for the team’s long-term plans. He did not match the Panthers analytical management philosophy, and was destined for the door. Love it or hate it, the Panthers decided to become a test kitchen for the moneypuck management style after Tom Rowe took the reigns from Dale Tallon, and Gudbranson did not fit in that picture.

This is where Gudbranson’s trade (and Gallant’s termination, actually) becomes the focal point of a bigger debate in the hockey world. Can you build a successful franchise with analytics? If so, what does the data-driven style of play mean for the future of the game? Players like Gudbranson and Shea Weber, who are viewed unfavorably by analytics are generally fun to watch. Are bruising d-men going the way of the enforcer? For the sake of my sanity I’m not going to try and answer those questions, but I think deep down we all know the answers probably don’t favor Gudbranson.

Replaced by a Newer, Cheaper Model



Part of what made Gudbranson expendable in the off-season is that the Panthers knew that they had young up-and-comers ready to fill the spots. Mike Matheson looked very good at the end of last year, especially in the playoffs. Alex Petrovic was slated for a larger role after proving his worth last year. Petrovic and Matheson are cheaper options with Gudbranson, and both have had greater success at this point in the season, albeit on a better team in a slightly lesser role

Player GP G A P +/- CF% Alex Petrovic 16 1 4 5 8 53.8% Mike Matheson 25 2 6 8 -3 51.2%

Despite being sidelined in mid-November with an ankle injury, Petrovic impressed early. Playing mostly third pairing minutes, Petro logged more significant ice time leading up to his injury, playing no fewer than 18 minutes in his last 5 games before getting hurt. Matheson, a rookie, has looked a little spotty on defense at times, but the rookie’s growing pains also give evidence of a promising, smooth-skating defender. Both players have been able to generate offense and possess the puck at rates better to Gudbranson, and have been stronger on defense as well, albeit as part of a more cohesive unit.

The other upside is that they’re both cheaper than Gudbranson. Petrovic is making $1.05 million against the cap, and Matheson is making a paltry $925,000. Both players combined are still over a million dollars cheaper than Gudbranson. The organization believed that there were better players than Gudbranson on the roster or in the prospect pool who could take on his role more successfully. It allowed them to allocate money elsewhere, like Ekblad’s shiny new $7.5 million contract, and the money they gave to free agents like Jason Demers and Keith Yandle to add more depth to the defense.

Addressing the Pro-Gudbranson Arugments

Okay, so there are a few key reasons that I’ve seen for why the Panthers shouldn’t have let Gudbranson go. I’m going to post some of the more popular ones and then discuss them. Some of them are actually not bad arguments, and I could see how fans could make a case for them, but I hold my ground firmly in favor of the trade.

“Gudbranson was a leader in the locker room and now the team chemistry is out of whack.”

Okay, I actually like and admire Gudbranson’s leadership. The Mic’d Up he did with Vancouver that came out a few days ago is really good and worth a watch. However, I’m not sure that Erik Gudbranson was the glue of the locker room in its entirety. The Panthers have a mix of young and old in their locker room, and I don’t think the departure of Gudbranson decimated the chemistry of a team that has other players who are important off the ice. Heck, it’s half the reason that the Panthers re-upped Shawn Thornton, who managed 1 goal in 50 games last year (which I was present for. Love you Shawn). Other leaders in the room include Jussi Jokinen, Ekblad, and Derek Mackenzie who all wear letters on their jersey, as well as the wise elder Jaromir Jagr, and Italian cowboy Roberto Luongo. Keeping Gudbranson for his leadership ability is a faulty argument. Try swapping his name with former-captain Willie Mitchell’s and you should see the error in logic.

“Gudbranson was a fan favorite.”

Okay, I actually don’t disagree with this reason. Keeping players that fans like makes sense because they will pay money to show up to see them unless you’re PK Subban . This one, again, comes with a big however. Keeping a guy on the roster who doesn’t do you much good just because fans like him isn’t something that the Panthers want to do, with the exception of Shawn Thornton, whose contract is almost 6 TIMES CHEAPER than Gudbranson’s. The Panthers have been very clear since Vinnie Viola and Doug Cifu purchased the team that the goal is to win a Stanley Cup. Gudbranson didn’t fit the vision for the future, so he was gone. Fan favorites be damned, because fans would be a whole lot happier if Gudbranson was gone and the Cup was in Florida than if he were body-checking players for a playoff-less Panther club.

“The Panthers need Gudbranson to inject some toughness into the lineup.”

I’m going to say it now, and hopefully you don’t crucify me for it: Toughness is not required to win a Stanley Cup. Mental toughness yes, but a hulking 6 foot 5 inch defender guarding the blue line? No. I think looking at championship teams is a good way to see what works in the league. After all, if it didn’t work they wouldn’t be champions. Looking at the Penguins Stanley Cup roster I don’t see any big minute defenders who play the kind of crushing and uber-physical game that Erik Gudbranson does. The closest is 6 foot 4 inch Brian Dumoulin, who, at 207 pounds weighs in much lighter than Gudbranson’s bulky 220 body. The difference between Dumoulin and Gudbranson is that Dumoulin has had success in the offensive and neutral zones as well, being known as a fluid and quick skater, which Gudbranson does not.

Otherwise, who is the tough element on Pittsburgh? Crosby? Malkin? Kessel? Letang? Bonino? Hagelin? They didn’t really need one, because even their big guys were too quick to chase down. The Penguins were built for speed, and speed is the name of the game in the current NHL. Dallas, Nashville, Chicago, Washington, the Rangers (ew), and the Lightning are all really good and really fast. Lumbering men like Erik Gudbranson might be tough, but you don’t need an enforcer or a shut down defender anymore, unless they’re as good as Shea Weber. But Erik Gudbranson isn’t Shea Weber. Now I will say that fast doesn’t necessarily equal good, either, at least not by itself, but the point is that toughness and size are becoming less and less relevant in the league, as its current champions can attest, and Erik Gudbranson was too one dimensional to fit into the system in Florida, even if he is tough as nails.

“The team is doing much worse this year, and if we had kept Gudbranson we would be doing better.”

This one is just straight wrong. The reason why we are doing worse this year compared to last is shown by a little stat called PDO. PDO is a a combination of a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. In the NHL an average team has a shooting percentage of around 9% and a save percentage of around 91%, therefore a PDO of 100 is typical. The Panthers’ PDO last year was 101.6, which seems like hardly any difference, but was the second highest in the league. This means the team had an extremely lucky season last year.

This year the Panthers’ PDO is 20th in the league at 99.3. The difference between this year and last? Shooting percentage. The 2.3% difference between last year and this year is account for almost entirely by the team’s shooting percentage. Last year the Panthers shot the puck with a 9.8% success rate, almost a full point above league average. This year they are sitting at a dismal 7.6% success rate. For those of you who are so quick to blame the defense, keep in mind that the goaltending is above average this year, just as it was last year, and the defense does a large part in limiting the kind of shots that lead to easy goals. That’s why Luongo has been able to put up stellar numbers despite being an older butterfly goaltender. The reason for the Panthers’ underwhelming performance this season is a combination of reversion to the mean, or the law of averages, and underwhelming play by the forwards.

It’s unfortunate for the team, but Erik Gudbranson isn’t a forward, so his absence actually isn’t a big factor in the team’s poorer performance.

Closing Thoughts

I’m sorry if you like Erik Gudbranson and this blog pissed you off. I really liked him too, and was sad to see him go. He was fun to watch, even if he wasn’t the best on the ice. That time he beat the shit out of Matt Hendricks was top notch. When he helicoptered Teravainen? Top notch as well. The point of this was to point out the reasons why Gudbranson was traded from the organization’s standpoint, and I know in the process of doing so I was pretty mean, maybe even bordering on unfair. If you think I was you can let me know in a comment.

At the end of it all hockey is a business, and Gudbranson was a round peg who suddenly found himself play for a square hole under new ownership. I personally support the move, but you’re free to disagree. The team obviously has its priorities, which history will judge for their merits. As of now it seems like getting rid of Gudbranson was a good move that resulted in some assets being acquired without feeling to many if any negative effects from his absence. There’s only one way to find out if the team made the right call: to go out and play more hockey!

Go Panthers!