JUST 220 days remain before Britain is scheduled to exit the European Union. Yet as the clock counts down, even the broadest contours of the future of Britain’s relationship with its continental neighbours remain uncertain. Last month the country appeared to be heading towards a “soft” Brexit, in which it would remain in the EU’s single market for goods while gaining some control over the movement of people. Dominic Raab, Britain’s chief negotiator, will meet his EU counterpart in Brussels today in an attempt to thrash out “the few remaining withdrawal issues”. Yet little else beyond the financial cost Britain must pay to leave the EU has been agreed, increasing the chances that no pact gets completed by the deadline next March. On August 23rd Britain’s government will publish the first of a series of technical notes to help people prepare for the risk of a no-deal Brexit.

European responses to Britain’s demands—which largely amount to retaining the coveted benefits of EU membership while shedding the block’s core obligations—have varied widely. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), our sister company, has compiled an index that aggregates the positions of each country on each major negotiating issue into a single figure. Its analysts assess EU member states’ stances on four main issues: trade in goods; movement of people; regulation of finance; and defence and security arrangements. It rates each of the issues on a scale from zero to ten, for a total assessment out of 40. Countries that score 30 or more are reckoned to have a “hard-core” negotiating position; those with scores of 25-29 are said to be “hard”; while those below 25 are “soft”.

Overall, the EIU reckons that the EU’s stance has actually softened in recent months. Of the 27 member states, fully 20 have shifted to a more lenient mix of positions, whereas only one (Ireland) has grown tougher. As a result, just two countries, Germany and France, are now rated to take the harshest stance on Brexit, down from six when the EIU first conducted the assessment in April 2017. France’s score has fallen from 32.5 to 30 in that time, and Germany’s remains at 30.

Although much agreement can be found on trade in goods, financial regulation and security measures, the elephant in the room remains the free movement of people. The countries that trade most with Britain are simultaneously most willing to accept Britain’s free-trade proposal, but most against curbing migration flows. The impact of EU migrant labour is the most contentious issue for the government’s Brexit-backing electorate, yet it has since slowed to a relative trickle. Net migration from the EU fell to 100,000 last year, the lowest level since 2013. However, it has been offset by an increase in migrants from outside the EU—suggesting that voters who supported Brexit hoping to slow the inflow of foreigners may be disappointed once it becomes a reality.