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As for supply management, it’s about as popular with Canadians as a wet summer weekend, but hardly a threat to the future of the country. Bernier’s suggestion that sacrificing it to the demands of Donald Trump will open the way to a new deal on free trade is either frighteningly naive or woefully blinkered. Trump’s response to concessions is to demand more concessions. How would Bernier treat Trump’s insistence on a five-year sunset clause on the agreement, which would render it functionally useless? Is complying with U.S. demands to be a core policy of the new Bernier party?

Is complying with U.S. demands to be a core policy of the new Bernier party?

The main achievement of the Reform party in pursuing “real” conservative ideas was to split the conservative vote and hand Jean Chrétien’s Liberals three consecutive majorities. Liberal dominance was only ended when Stephen Harper managed to reunite the squabbling factions behind something resembling a coherent platform. Bernier was happy to serve in the Harper government, which had no problem with diversity and made it a priority to curry support within ethnic communities. The man assigned to that duty — which proved highly successful — was Jason Kenney, currently leader of the United Conservative Party of Alberta, who called Bernier’s initiative “a joke.”

“If he couldn’t even persuade his closest colleagues to support his policy direction, then how could he expect to form a new party?” Kenney asked.

If he couldn’t even persuade his closest colleagues to support his policy direction, then how could he expect to form a new party? Jason Kenney, leader of the United Conservative Party of Alberta

Even Stephen Harper, who has kept his distance from Canadian politics since quitting the leadership, saw fit to comment, noting that Bernier’s blast was mostly a reflection of ego and would only reopen divisions. Harper was no more a fan of supply management than Bernier, but concluded he had to live with it if Tories hoped to remain competitive in Quebec. It’s easy to be all about devotion to principle when you occupy a seat in the opposition back benches, but anyone who thinks political power comes from carving a set of inviolable ideals in stone and inviting voters to take it or leave it should prepare themselves for a long life on the outside looking in.

Bernier’s views are often identified as Libertarian. There’s been a Libertarian party in Canada for more than 40 years. In the 2015 election they ran 72 candidates and got just under 37,000 votes. That’s 5.6 million fewer than the Conservatives. Maybe the Bernier party will do better. There are undoubtedly Canadians out there who share his opinions. And they may be willing to cast their votes in his favour, despite the knowledge that doing so can only hurt Conservatives — “real” or otherwise — and offer Liberals a better chance of re-election than they’d have otherwise.

Or, Bernier could end up as the only fish in his new pond. Maybe he’ll be happier that way. It will certainly leave the Conservatives to get on with other matters.

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