The Indianapolis Colts were able to take advantage of Andre Johnson’s unwillingness to play second fiddle to rising wideout DeAndre Hopkins, so they were able to hurt a rival team by scooping up Johnson after the Houston Texans were forced to cut ties with the expensive franchise icon. Signed to a three-year, $21 million deal that includes $10 million in guaranteed money, Johnson will slot in as the team’s No. 2 receiver with T.Y. Hilton and explosive second-year Ole Miss product Donte Moncrief as the No. 1 and 3 options, respectively.

After catching 109 passes in the 2013 season (his fifth 100-catch season), Johnson put up his worst season in quite some time last year. He remained productive with 85 receptions for 936 yards, but he was just second on the team in receiving yards (by a clear margin) to Hopkins, averaging a full 13 yards less per game than the former Clemson standout.

Thanks to an average of 11.0 yards per reception, his lowest since the 2005 season, Johnson’s 58.2% catch rate (via Pro Football Reference) led him to average a poor 6.4 yards per target. That number looks even worse in comparison to Hopkins’s outstanding 9.5 yards per target.

It’s easy to look at Johnson’s numbers and say that the Colts are overpaying for a declining player who will be 34 when the regular season starts. However, it’s important not to take statistics at face value, because even though Johnson dropped a whopping nine passes and led his quarterbacks to have a rating 14 points less than they did when targeting Hopkins (both stats as per Pro Football Focus), there are other numbers that indicate other factors are at play.

I’ve termed receivers who have high yards per route run totals but low yards per target totals as players who suffered from the “Andre Johnson Effect”, meaning that they are No. 1 wideouts on teams with poor QBs who are often hurt by the fact that their QBs throw too many desperation throws at them in the hopes that said WR can miraculously make the play (A.J. Green knows this “effect” all too well).

Johnson was unsurprisingly the victim of his own effect last season, as his average of just 6.4 yards per target doesn’t quite match up with a yards per route run average that was good for 20th in the league among 50 qualifiers. Being 20th out of 50 isn’t where most No. 1 receivers would like to be, but the difference between being a bottom-feeder in yards per target and an above-average player in yards per route run is important.

It’s true that Johnson had nearly 300 less receiving yards than Hopkins despite being targeted 146 times (to just 127 targets for the Texans new No. 1 receiver). With that being said, we need to look at how both players received their targets, because that has more value when trying to predict how Johnson will do in Indianapolis.

While Johnson was busy trying to move the chains with just 11.0 yards per reception (an anomaly given the fact that he averaged at least 12.9 yards per reception in each of the previous seven seasons), Hopkins was breaking defenses open with his playmaking ability by averaging a whopping 15.9 yards per reception. Johnson averaged nearly a full reception more per game and had considerably more targets, and yet he also managed to have a lower catch rate than Hopkins despite averaging nearly five yards less per reception.

But therein lies the issue with the stats, because they don’t show us the quality of the targets. Look, the fact that Johnson was forced to take shorter routes while simultaneously receiving more targets tells me that he was more of a possession guy who helped Hopkins blossom. Andre Johnson had to take care of the dirty work, meaning that Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Texans were shoving low-quality throws at him in the hopes that he would help the rest of the offense out.

It’s not unlike what has happened to Johnson for the better part of his career, so why the sudden drop in production and efficiency? I think it’s because Hopkins has blossomed into a more explosive player, so the Texans decided that they would be better off letting Johnson ease pressure off of Hopkins.

By definition, Johnson is a declining player, because he is aging and has clearly lost a step in the explosiveness department. He’s still an effective receiver, though, and should be even better with Hilton, Moncrief, Dwayne Allen, and others surrounding him with a much better quarterback in Andrew Luck.

Oct 9, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans receiver Andre Johnson (80) after a reception against the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

I expect his yards per target to climb, but his overall production will depend on the number of targets he receives. He’ll certainly receive less than 146 targets with the Indianapolis Colts willing to spread the ball around more with a better QB and better weapons, but since they also throw the ball more often, we could see Johnson eclipse the 1,200-yard mark.

Johnson was indeed outplayed by Hopkins last season, but that has more to do with Hopkins’s role and his own quick development into a top weapon in the passing game.

It has little to do with ineffectiveness on Johnson’s own part, because he was still a very good possession receiver for the Texans; it’s just that his own numbers don’t reflect that. But Hopkins does owe Johnson for part of his breakout year, so Johnson’s ability to move the chains can be seen in Hopkins’s increase in production.

I can’t see Johnson going off next season for the Colts, but I would be surprised if he doesn’t get around the 85 receptions he put up last season for the Texans, since he’s still a good possession guy who will exclusively play that role in a Colts offense that has two very explosive, young wideouts in Hilton and Moncrief.