The Guardian – August 2018 Poll 1

Brexit: Deal or No Deal?

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This week’s headline voting intention results are broadly in line with two weeks ago (20th – 22nd July) with Labour enjoying a slender one percentage point lead. In other words, it’s still level pegging which may be a positive thing for both of Britain’s two big parties, with the Tories fighting a civil war over the EU and Labour embroiled in accusations of anti-Semitism.

That said, of the two leaders, Theresa May is perhaps likely to be disappointed that Labour’s poll rating has not been more dented by the anti-Semitism issue given the damaging publicity it attracted last week and over the weekend. It represents the second successive poll where Labour has enjoyed a lead over the Conservatives, the first time since December-January.

If anything, the main parties – including the Lib Dems – have slipped back a little at the expense of Ukip which is polling at its highest level since 12-14 May 2017 when it last recorded 6%. It represents a continuous improvement for the party since the nadir of 16-18 March this year when it sank to just 1%.

Conservative 39% (-1)* Labour 40% (-1) Lib Dem 7% (-1) SNP 4% (+1) PC *% (nc) Green 3% (nc) UKIP 6% (+1) Other *% (nc)

* Change from previous poll in brackets

We also asked a new question in order to tease out the nuances surrounding public opinion toward the UK’s ongoing negotiations to leaving the EU. The overall results are set out below including a net ‘UK leaves with a deal’ category to aid our analysis. Key findings show that:

When asked what is best for the country as a whole, more people say that the UK should leave with some sort of deal rather than without a deal (42% vs 16%). Three in ten (31%) believe it would be best if the UK stayed in after a second referendum.

as a whole, more people say that the UK should leave with some sort of deal rather than without a deal (42% vs 16%). Three in ten (31%) believe it would be best if the UK stayed in after a second referendum. When asked what would be worst of the country as a whole , over two-fifths (43%) of the public state leaving the EU without a deal.

, over two-fifths (43%) of the public state leaving the EU without a deal. There are subtle but important differences in opinion between what is best for the country and for them personally . For instance, a higher % believe staying in the EU is best for them personally than it is for the UK overall (36% vs 31%).

. For instance, a higher % believe staying in the EU is best for them personally than it is for the UK overall (36% vs 31%). Whether for the country or personally, a Canada style deal is seen as more beneficial than the prime minister’s Chequers plan or a Norway style arrangement.

than the prime minister’s Chequers plan or a Norway style arrangement. The majority of Brits believe that Brexit will actually happen but there is uncertainty about the precise outcome. Just under two-fifths (37%) state the country is most likely to leave with some form of deal but a significant minority (27%) think there will be no deal. A further quarter say the UK will leave but with a deal unresolved or that Brexit will be delayed. As many as half (50%) say the UK staying in the EU is least likely to occur.

A. Best for the country as a whole B. Worst for the country as a whole C. Best for you personally D. Worst for you personally E. Most likely to happen F. Least likely to happen UK leaves without a deal 16% 43% 18% 43% 27% 18% NET: UK leaves with a deal 42% 13% 36% 12% 37% 18% The UK leaves the EU on time with a deal along the lines set out in the Chequers plan (10%) (5%) (10%) (4%) (16%) (6%) The UK leaves the EU on time with a ‘harder’ version of Chequers more like a Canada style free trade deal (22%) (4%) (17%) (5%) (10%) (6%) The UK leaves the EU on time with a ‘softer’ version of Chequers more like a Norway arrangement (10%) (4%) (9%) (4%) (11%) (5%) UK leaves but with deal unresolved 3% 9% 3% 9% 15% 6% Brexit is delayed 8% 7% 7% 6% 14% 8% UK decides to stay in EU after second referendum 31% 29% 36% 30% 7% 50% TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,049 adults aged 18+, between 3rd and 5th August 2018. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Please click the button below to download the report, we do have an archive of previous polls here