Tony Leys

tleys@dmreg.com

© COPYRIGHT 2016, DES MOINES REGISTER AND TRIBUNE COMPANY

Hillary Clinton has lost most of her lead over Bernie Sanders in the race to win Iowa’s Democratic presidential caucuses, a new Iowa Poll shows.

Clinton, who has been the favorite all along, now leads Sanders by just 2 percentage points in The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll. That’s down from 9 percentage points a month ago.

Clinton is now the top choice of 42 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, compared with Sanders’ 40 percent, the poll finds. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

“It shows Bernie is around to stay for sure. It’s not a fly-by-night thing,” said Grant Woodard, a Des Moines lawyer who has worked for several state and national Democratic campaigns. “It really shows we’re going to have a pretty crazy last few weeks here.”

The tightening race is not because of a surge in support for Sanders, the poll indicates. His support has risen just 1 percentage point in the past month. But Clinton has seen her support slide from 48 percent to 42 percent. The big shift has been in the number of likely Democratic caucusgoers who say they are undecided or who plan to stand up for “uncommitted.” Fourteen percent now say that, up from 8 percent a month ago.

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“As we get closer, sometimes things get more volatile, rather than less,” said Ann Selzer, who conducts the Iowa Poll.

Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley continues to trail far behind, remaining at 4 percent, despite campaigning tirelessly in Iowa.

For much of the race, Clinton and Sanders rarely have criticized each other by name. That could be because they each realize the other is personally popular with most Democrats. The new Iowa Poll shows that 89 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers view Sanders favorably, and 86 percent of them view Clinton favorably.

Both candidates have sharpened their critiques of each other in the past couple of weeks, but they still generally have avoided personal insults.

Woodard said that’s a smart policy. At this point in the campaign, it’s important for candidates to explain how they’re different from their competitors, he said. But the candidates don’t want to turn nasty.

“I don’t think either campaign wants to see what would happen if they really turned the gas on,” he said.

Woodard, who worked for Democratic candidate John Kerry before the 2004 caucuses and for Clinton before the 2008 caucuses, is unaffiliated this time. He said Clinton’s staff shouldn’t despair over the tighter poll numbers, because she has built a solid organization to get voters out to the caucuses. However, Sanders appears to be better prepared than many analysts figured he would be, Woodard said.

“If I was in either of those campaigns, I would look at this poll and say, ‘This race is winnable.’”

The Iowa Poll of 503 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Jan. 7-10 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines.

David Redlawsk, a Rutgers University political science professor who studies the Iowa process, said it’s interesting to see an increasing number of Democrats say they’re undecided just three weeks before the caucuses. He said that could reflect voters who had assumed Clinton would be the nominee, but now believe they have another viable choice in Sanders.

“But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll go to Bernie,” he said. “I’m not reading this at all to say that Hillary’s campaign is somehow doomed.”

Redlawsk, who is serving as a fellow at the Harkin Institute at Drake University, said the candidates’ increased criticism of each other is probably due to the tightening polls and the approaching finish line. Near the end of any campaign, he said, “you’ve got to pull out all the stops.”

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Selzer, the pollster, noted that Sanders scores well with the types of voters who put Barack Obama over the top in Iowa in 2008. Sanders is supported by 62 percent of political independents who plan to attend the Democratic caucuses, compared with 21 percent for Clinton. He also leads 59 percent to 27 percent among those younger than 45 and by 52 percent to 34 percent among people who plan to attend their first caucuses.

“That to me is the reason why this race is close,” Selzer said.

Clinton's strengths: She is supported by 56 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers 65 and older. Just 26 percent of seniors support Sanders, even though at 74, he is six years older than Clinton. Clinton also leads Sanders among women, 49 percent to 32 percent, and among registered Democrats, 49 percent to 34 percent.

Seventy percent of Sanders’ supporters say they have made up their minds, compared with 69 percent of Clinton’s supporters.

On the stump, Clinton routinely makes the case that her experience and toughness make her the Democrats’ best choice to take on the Republicans’ candidate next November. The Iowa Poll suggests her message is resonating. Among her supporters, 64 percent say it is extremely important that they have confidence in their candidate to win the general election. Just 35 percent of Sanders’ supporters feel that way.

“Sanders supporters are not thinking it’s a big deal to support a candidate who might not win the general election,” Selzer said.

Sanders supporter Dennis Hansen, 65, of Solon doesn’t buy the argument that Clinton would stand a better chance next November. He noted that she has been tied to several past scandals.

“If Hillary’s the candidate, you’re going to see nothing but dirty ads from the Republicans,” he said. “Their dirty politics wouldn’t work with Bernie.”

Hansen said he appreciates how Sanders focuses on ideas instead of trashing other candidates. The retired firefighter hasn’t attended an Iowa caucus in many years. He went once, he said, and found the process to be “such a pain.” But he intends to show up on Feb. 1 for Sanders.

“He’s not political. He’s telling it like it is, and he’s got a plan for what needs to be done,” Hansen said. “With the rest of them, it’s nothing but political bull crap.”

Poll participant Ann McCurdy has made up her mind to caucus for Clinton. “She has a breadth of experience that is unmatched by any of the other candidates,” said McCurdy, 35, of Anita.

McCurdy, who is a public relations specialist for a hospital, said that as the mother of four children, she especially likes Clinton’s plans for making college affordable. She also supports Clinton’s call for a higher minimum wage, which could be especially important in rural areas. Like many other Clinton supporters, McCurdy said she also likes Sanders. In fact, she hopes Clinton will choose him as her running mate. The two candidates have similar stances, McCurdy said, but she believes Clinton is better positioned to win the general election and to implement changes.

McCurdy also supported Clinton in the 2008 caucuses. She said Clinton has strengthened her resume and her campaign skills since then.

“I just think she’s ready.”

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Anthony Carter Walsh, 45, of Iowa City loves Sanders’ rumpled approach to campaigning.

“The trappings of a well-packaged candidate are missing — and that’s what makes him all the more believable,” said Carter Walsh, who works as a cook.

Carter Walsh said Sanders is breaking through by voicing voters’ frustration over the way the economy is rigged in favor of the wealthy.

“He seems to be angry enough about the pernicious influence of money, both in politics and in people’s everyday lives,” he said.

Carter Walsh said Clinton, by contrast, “is a consummate politician.” He agrees with her more on gun control, because Sanders has voted for some measures that the gun industry likes. But he said he understands why Sanders feels pressure to vote that way while representing a rural state full of gun owners. Carter Walsh said he wouldn’t vote against any candidate over a single issue.

He also said he would vote for Clinton next November if she becomes the Democrats’ nominee, and he expects most other Sanders supporters would do the same after they compare her to the Republicans’ nominee, especially if it’s Donald Trump or Ted Cruz.

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Poll participant Joanne Gray, 58, doubts past scandals will weigh down Clinton’s campaign.

“She’s got some baggage, but everybody’s got some baggage,” said Gray, who farms near St. Olaf.

Gray supports Clinton, largely based on her experience and her likelihood of winning next November. Although she sees Sanders’ appeal, she said he can’t stack up to Clinton.

“He’s got some good ideas, but he seems too far over” to the left, she said. “I think she’s going to be a bit more down the middle of the road.”

Gray chuckled when asked if she feels confident that her long-favored candidate will win the Iowa caucuses.

“I learned a long time ago not to be too confident,” she said. “It all depends on how many people come out to caucus.”

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted January 7-10 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 500 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 503 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers contacted 3,391 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list.

Questions based on the subsamples of 503 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 500 likely Republican caucus attendees each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age— have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.