Article content continued

It looks like both systems agree: The American League East is back in all its glory. Typically the most feared division, the East has been slightly more tame in recent years, occupying only one of four available wild-card spots in the last two seasons. But in 2016 both sites project three playoff teams will come out of the East.

Photo by Corey Perrine / AP

FanGraphs projects the Boston Red Sox to claim the division title, with the rival New York Yankees taking the first wild-card spot and the Blue Jays the second. In short: FanGraphs expects the Blue Jays to take a step back from last year’s 93-win season, while the Yankees, bringing back a similar team, perform about the same as last season and the Red Sox make significant gains both at the plate and on the mound.

It should come as no surprise that the Jays are once again projected to field the AL’s best offence (side note: wow, hopes sure are high for the Cubs). It should also come as no surprise that Toronto’s position players are not expected to be quite as outstanding in 2016 thanks to regression. FanGraphs has the lineup’s Wins Above Replacement dropping from 34.7 WAR to 27.8. Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are all projected to produce lower WARs in 2016, although a full year of Troy Tulowitzki should offset some of that (Tulowitzki, who had an off-year at 2.3 WAR for the Blue Jays and Rockies last year, is projected for 3.4).

The Yankees’ offence is basically standing pat, projected to rank an identical eighth in the AL (20.2 WAR in 2016 after 20.4 last season). The Red Sox, meanwhile, are projected to make a big jump. Last year they were ninth in the AL with 19.1 WAR and in 2016 they’re projected to post a 25.6 WAR, trailing only the Blue Jays. Boston is expected to be roughly five wins better based largely the expectation that Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval will not be completely terrible again this year and that Dustin Pedroia will be healthy.