A vote katwa strategy has not succeeded in the Hindi heartland since February 2005. At that time, Ram Vilas Paswan was the vote cutter. Speaking from memory, I think his LJP won almost 30 seats and emerged as “king maker” in the Bihar Assembly. No government was formed and elections were held again later that year, with BJP+JDU combine sweeping to power.

Last year, a lot of people (including me) thought that a vote katwa strategy would work for Ajit Jogi and benefit BJP in the process. It was not to be. Those who put their eggs in the vote katwa basket (including me) were clobbered most badly of all. The Congress won a sweeping victory in Chhattisgarh. In states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh where the BJP played with a “straight bat”, the performance was much much better. In fact, BJP missed out on winning both states by a whisker.

Suffice to say that people have figured out the vote katwa strategy and it simply doesn’t work any more. What is worse, people tend to take some relish in punishing anybody who tries this cheap and obvious tactic.

We are exactly at the halfway mark in Uttar Pradesh. 39 seats have already voted and 41 seats are left to be polled. Most of these seats are in Eastern Uttar Pradesh where M population is relatively low.

What does it say when halfway through the state, there is total and utter confusion in the ‘secular’ ranks?

Priyanka Gandhi first says party's 'lightweight' candidates will hit BJP's voteshare, then after snap-back from Bua-Bhatija, clarifies no weak candidates, all strong. Yeh kya khel hai bhaiyya? @ShivAroor with political guests on #5iveLive at 5.30pm. pic.twitter.com/ztgQhluuyc — India Today (@IndiaToday) May 2, 2019

I don't believe it: Akhilesh Yadav on Priyanka Gandhi’s weak candidate comment

Track #ElectionsWithET: https://t.co/nXLopLCvjA pic.twitter.com/idpqTJvNW2 — EconomicTimes (@EconomicTimes) May 2, 2019

What’s going on? Why are BSP, SP and Congress speaking in different voices?

The time for them to consolidate and hammer the BJP was in Western Uttar Pradesh, where the M heavy seats would have given them a big advantage. Instead the Congress put up fairly decent M candidates in seats such as Saharanpur, which could only have dented the SP+BSP.

And now they are in Eastern Uttar Pradesh, where the Congress would at least have a glimmer of hope at getting seats on its own. This is the region where the Congress got its stunning tally of 22/80 in 2009. Okay 22/80 is not “stunning”, but you have to judge Rahul Gandhi by his own low standards.

When the Congress brought Priyanka into politics, she was made in charge of Eastern Uttar Pradesh. Obviously there is a reason they divided UP into two parts and gave the East to Priyanka. The Congress hoped to win a decent number of seats in the East and the credit for this was supposed to go to Priyanka. If they had made Priyanka in charge of UP, her score out of 80 would have looked miserable. But if you halve the state, you can claim a better percentage out of 40 for Priyanka.

That was the plan 3 months ago. Obviously that has changed, with Priyanka now claiming to be just a vote katwa in Uttar Pradesh.

Clearly, both Rahul and Priyanka have similar IQ and are similarly out of touch. The expression “vote katwa” carries intense stigma in the Hindi heartland. Despite all sorts of half denials, word will spread in no time about her vote katwa comment. And the anger will be directed at the SP+BSP as well, which stands accused of using “vote katwa” to win an election. There is a reason Akhilesh is scrambling to say that Congress did NOT put up weak candidates. He understands the stigma that is coming.

Generally speaking, a sudden change of strategy midway through the election suggests things have not gone according to plan. Now, in theory, even “changing strategy” can be part of a strategy.

I’ll give you an example of that. Remember Amit Shah’s comment about asking all infiltrators except Hindu, Sikh, Jain, Buddhist, etc. to leave India? Why did it come only after the first phase? Because the regions of Assam which were most unhappy with Citizenship Amendment Bill had already voted in Phase 1. The remaining parts of Assam, like Silchar actually support the CAB (or have such large M population that BJP has zero chance there). Even the sitting Congress MP from Silchar supports the CAB. This would be an example of flawless execution of a deliberate change in strategy.

But that’s not what you see in Uttar Pradesh. We see Priyanka making a throwaway remark that got widely reported. Then issuing a clarification. Then Rahul issuing another clarification which sounded like he was agreeing with her. This is confusion, not strategy.

And it suggests that whatever plan the SP, BSP and Congress had for Uttar Pradesh, it is not working.

The only thing consistent about Uttar Pradesh is that it never fails to surprise. Right since the 2007 Assembly Elections. Those who have been trying to “calculate” the UP verdict with paper and pencil will be in for a rude shock. The BJP increased its vote share in Uttar Pradesh by as much as +26% in UP from 2009 to 2014. It’s hard to get a +26% swing even in a single city. Now, imagine the scale and size of Uttar Pradesh. And all of this happened between Sept 2013 and April 2014. Nine months. 26% vote share rise. A political innings like no other. Who can “calculate” that?