Officially, Scottish independence would have no effect on Northern Ireland’s place in the Union. But since the prospect loomed up three years ago, it has been assumed that Scotland’s departure would be a psychological hammer blow to Ulster unionism, and leave the UK so lopsided that it might simply fall apart.

Momentum has been with the nationalists. They took almost every seat in Scotland in the 2015 Westminster election. A year later, the referendum on leaving the European Union reopened the independence question.

Now that Scottish nationalism seems to be in retreat, the psychological impact on Ulster should fade. But that is not an unqualified boon for unionism — it could end up becoming more arrogant at the very moment it needs to learn some