TORONTO, ON - NOVEMBER 19: Mitchell Marner #16 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates against Boone Jenner #38 of the Columbus Blue Jackets during the second period at the Scotiabank Arena on November 19, 2018 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)

Trying to Make Sense of the Toronto Maple Leafs Weirdest Trade Ever by Lucas Bolt

Could Mitch Marner end up playing in the KHL instead of the Toronto Maple Leafs?

Mitch Marner and the Toronto Maple Leafs remain embroiled in a contract stand-off that threatens to see the young forward on the sidelines when the season gets underway.

With contract talks seemingly not going well, is there any chance that Marner could end up in another league?

In order to determine the likelihood of Marner leaving for other leagues, say the Kontinental or Swedish hockey Leagues, we must first dissect the situation as it stands today as well as how similar negotiations have been handled in the past.

Mitch Marner and the Toronto Maple Leafs

As evidenced by the 94 points he scored last year, Marner is an excellent producer, and at age 22, he is most likely yet to hit his peak, though he is already among the best players in the NHL.

Marner sported a 51.7 CF%, which means that the Leafs controlled the puck for roughly 52% of Marner’s shifts, thus increasing the likelihood of scoring. He was also regularly featured on both the Leafs special teams units.

That being said, there is one major factor to consider when looking at Marner and his production this season, that factor is John Tavares.

Tavares and Marner immediately had chemistry the instant they began playing together. Both Tavares and Marner set career highs in goals (Marner with 26, Tavares with 47) and points (Marner with 94 and Tavares with 88). Both players notable also had career-high CF% (M with a 51.7%, Tavares with a 53.3%) and PDO (Marner with a 103.2, Tavares with a 102.8), which essentially means that both players were controlling the puck, passing, and scoring successfully at a very lucky or unnaturally high rate. (hockeyreference)

It can be assumed that both players significantly benefited from playing with each other. However, PDO ratings as high as Marner’s and Tavares’ are considered to be unsustainable and often drop like a rock, usually alongside their production. This should always be factored in when you are considering how much to pay a player after a career season.

The Negotiation

Unfortunately for the Maple Leafs Organization, Marner, and the fans, much of the star’s demands have become public over the course of the last year.

Exact details are surprisingly difficult to find regarding quotes from Marner’s agent, Darren Ferris of DHG Sports, who is rather infamous for his media tours. However, one tweet, a Bob Mackenzie quote via @NicholsOnHockey, perfectly sums up the theme of the various Ferris interviews.

McKenzie: "In Mitch Marner's heart and mind, and that of the people surrounded him – his family, his agent Darren Ferris – they absolutely, 100 percent believe earnestly that Mitch Marner is worth every bit as much as Auston Matthews. They do." #Leafs 1050 — Chris Nichols (@NicholsOnHockey) February 6, 2019

If these reports are accurate, it’s no wonder the contract negotiations are stalled, because as good as he is, Marner isn’t Matthews.

Marner to KHL?

As we saw with William Nylander last season and David Pastrnak the year before that, star players and teams are having a difficult time reaching deals prior to the start of training camp. One option for RFA players is to leverage a KHL offer into an NHL contract. Rumour has it that Mikko Rantanen has such an offer.

As reported by KHL insider Igor Eronko on July 20th, Rantanen has been offered a 1-year $4 million contract by Ak Bars Kazan.

Hearing Ak Bars is ready to offer Mikko Rantanen a 1-year deal for $4M (tax is just 13% here and no escrow) #Avs — Igor Eronko (@IgorEronko) July 20, 2019

“Now why on earth would Marner sign in the KHL then?”

Good point: He won’t. But it won’t stop Darren Ferris from trying to leverage the possibility.

Ferris, agent for DHG Sports Agency, has notably threatened to hold out and/or seek other options with two other clients in recent memory. Those being Josh Anderson of the Columbus Blue Jackets and Andreas Athanasiou of the Detroit Red Wings.

Based on Ferris’ track record, it seems more likely than not for Marner to eventually sign with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

In my opinion, Marner’s negotiations will last through the remainder of the offseason and into training camp, as supported by Ferris’ most recent negotiation patterns.

Will he be in contact with other leagues and teams? That’s a possibility. Will he refuse to commit to another league and just sign a deal with his NHL team after months of drama? I have never been more confident about something in my life. You’re very predictable Darren.