Will there be a steep political price to pay for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals if they abandon their clear campaign commitment to make the 2015 federal election the last to use the first-past-the-post voting system?

A new online survey from EKOS suggests the answer to that question is ambiguous.

In the field from October 12 to 18, an EKOS online survey asked whether Canadians agreed with the following statement: “Electoral reform is something the Liberal Party campaigned on, so they should deliver on this promise.”

It reached 1,622 Canadians, with a margin of error of +/-2.4 per cent — and found 59 per cent agreed they should. Only 21 per cent said they shouldn’t deliver on the promise, while 16 per cent were neutral.

Of particular note for the Liberals is the almost seven in 10 of their own supporters who thought the government should keep its word (67.7 per cent). NDP (74.5 per cent) and Green (79.9 per cent) supporters were even more adamant about holding the Liberals to their word. Only a minority of Conservatives (30.9 per cent) wanted Trudeau to follow through.

What that all could mean for Trudeau and the Liberals politically, EKOS President Frank Graves told iPolitics, isn’t totally clear.

“I think he’s got some wriggle room,” Graves said. “But do I believe that if he’s genuinely committed to getting rid of first-past-the-post, there is a path to achieving that.

“That’s the issue of governing. You’ve got a mandate. If you want to go ahead and do it, you can. But if you don’t want to, I don’t think people are going to be out in the streets … I could see it becoming an issue, but I don’t think it would be a ballot booth issue that would define the next election if they didn’t do it.”

When it came to the statement, “Electoral reform is too important to be rushed; the process should be slowed down and subjected to more public consultations”, EKOS’ numbers were almost identical to those for the campaign promise question.

A plurality (47 per cent) — not a majority — also agreed that electoral reform can’t be “delayed for another election cycle”. But a combined majority (52 per cent) felt differently: 32 per cent disagreed and 17 per cent were neutral.

Since EKOS left the field a day before Le Devoir published its surprising interview with Trudeau — in which he suggested the desire for electoral reform has waned because Canadians are satisfied with his government — it’s conceivable these numbers could be affected by his remarks.

But only a very slim majority (51 per cent) told EKOS they agreed that “Canada’s electoral system does not do a good job in representing what voters want and needs to be changed” — which suggests Trudeau may be able to get away with something less ambitious than getting rid of the first-past-the-post system altogether. In other words — as he put it in the Le Devoir interview — “small change”.

“It’s also the case that a package of things like mandatory voting and internet voting … would be a very compelling package,” Graves said.

In addition to considering alternatives to first-past-the-post, the special committee on electoral reform was also tasked with considering online and mandatory voting. EKOS polled on both.

Just under 60 per cent of Canadians reported they were in favour of mandatory or compulsory voting — a number that’s increased steadily since EKOS started asking about it in February 2014 — while 29 per cent were opposed.

Rather than ask whether Canadians support or oppose online voting, EKOS asked whether they would use it if Elections Canada offered it in the next federal election.

Almost four out of five said they would: 57 per cent said it was “very likely” and 20 per cent said it was “somewhat likely”.