Scottish independence: More polls show slight lead for 'no' vote, ahead of September 18 referendum

Updated

As the Scottish independence vote edges closer, two new polls have put the campaign to stay in the United Kingdom in the lead, although a third has the pro-independence camp in front.

A Survation poll commissioned by the Better Together pro-union campaign gave the No vote 47 per cent support against 40.8 per cent for the Yes vote, with 9 per cent undecided and 3.2 per cent refusing to say.

Excluding those undecided, the No campaign had 54 per cent and the Yes campaign 46 per cent.

With only a few days to go before the September 18 poll, 93 per cent of 1,004 respondents questioned by telephone between Wednesday and Friday said they were certain to vote.

The Better Together campaign director Blair McDougall was predicting a tight result.

"This poll suggests that No are in the lead but that the race is far from over," he said.

"No-one can afford a protest vote. Any one of us could cast the vote that makes the difference between the UK staying together or breaking apart."

A spokesman for Yes Scotland said: "There is everything to play for, and this will spur on everybody who wants and is working hard for a Yes to redouble their efforts."

A second poll, this time for the Observer newspaper, placed the No vote at 47.7 per cent and the Yes vote at 42.3 per cent, with 2 per cent saying they would not vote and 8 per cent unsure if they would.

These two new polls are in line with a recent YouGov survey for The Times and Sun newspapers that had support for a No vote at 52 per cent, with supporters of independence on 48 per cent.

YouGov, one of Britain's most respected pollsters, polled 1,268 people between September 9 and September 11.

Only one of three new polls has Yes vote ahead

A previous YouGov poll had put support for the Yes campaign at 51 per cent.

That poll prompted British prime minister David Cameron to cancel a parliamentary debate and travel to Scotland with rival party leaders to campaign against independence.

Only one of the three most recent polls has the Yes vote still ahead.

An ICM poll conducted for the Sunday Telegraph found the pro-independence campaign had a lead of 49 per cent and the pro-union campaign was on 42 per cent.

When those undecided were excluded, the Yes vote was on 54 per cent - the largest lead it had recorded so far.

However, a respected pollster later issued a "health warning" about that poll's reliability.

Blair Jenkins, chief executive of Yes Scotland, described the result as "hugely encouraging" but poll expert John Curtice warned that the small sample size of 705 should be taken into account.

"Given the methodological caveats, the finding, while not wholly disregarded, should clearly be viewed with caution," he wrote on his blog.

Scotland's first minister Alex Salmond, who is leading the push for independence, has accused the British government of orchestrating a campaign by corporate lenders to influence the vote.

The pro-independence camp says it is time for Scots to rule their own country and build a fairer society without being told what to do by a political elite in London whom they accuse of mismanaging Scotland's wealth.

The unionist campaign, supported by the three main political parties in the Westminster parliament, says Scotland is more prosperous and secure within the United Kingdom and says an independent Scotland would face serious financial and economic hurdles.

AFP

Topics: referendums, world-politics, scotland, united-kingdom

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