According to the USDA, food prices have dropped 1.6% since last year. The USDA rounded up a few food items that are expected to continue to drop in price in 2016, but fair warning: these same items will probably be more expensive next year.


Overall, the USDA expects grocery prices to increase by about 2% throughout 2017. This seems like a big hike, but it’s actually slightly less than the average annual increase (2.5%). Here are some price predictions for common food staples:

Poultry : Prices have been 3.2% lower than last year, indirectly due to the avian flu. They expect poultry prices to drop 2.0 to 1.0 percent for the rest of 2016 but they’ll likely rise between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2017.

: Prices have been 3.2% lower than last year, indirectly due to the avian flu. They expect poultry prices to drop 2.0 to 1.0 percent for the rest of 2016 but they’ll likely rise between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2017. Dairy : Prices are 3.1% lower than July of 2015, and the USDA expects them to continue to drop between 0.5% and 1.5%. Thanks to warmer weather, cattle have been grazing longer and producing more milk, creating a dairy surplus. Prices will likely increase by 1.5% to 2.5% next year.

: Prices are 3.1% lower than July of 2015, and the USDA expects them to continue to drop between 0.5% and 1.5%. Thanks to warmer weather, cattle have been grazing longer and producing more milk, creating a dairy surplus. Prices will likely increase by 1.5% to 2.5% next year. Fresh fruit : Unlike other staples, fresh fruit prices will likely increase in 2016, by about 1.5 to 2.5%. They’ll increase even more in 2017, between 1.0% and 2.0%.

: Unlike other staples, fresh fruit prices will likely increase in 2016, by about 1.5 to 2.5%. They’ll increase even more in 2017, between 1.0% and 2.0%. Fresh vegetables: Vegetable prices will actually be more expensive this year too. According to the USDA, certain factors, like a stronger U.S. Dollar and low oil prices have “mitigated the effect of the drought.” They expect vegetable prices to increase between 0.5 and 1.5 percent this year, and they’ll be pretty stable in 2017, changing between -0.5 and 0.5%.

Vegetable prices will actually be more expensive this year too. According to the USDA, certain factors, like a stronger U.S. Dollar and low oil prices have “mitigated the effect of the drought.” They expect vegetable prices to increase between 0.5 and 1.5 percent this year, and they’ll be pretty stable in 2017, changing between -0.5 and 0.5%. Cereals and bakery products: Prices are expected to rise between 1.0% and 2.0% throughout the rest of the year and they’ll get even more expensive in 2017, increasing between 1.5 to 2.5%.


It’s worth noting that cheaper food prices haven’t been great news for everyone. As the Wall Street Journal reports, increases are probably a welcome change for farmers, grocers, and restaurants. From a consumer standpoint, though, you want to know what to expect when it comes to your budget, especially because groceries likely make up a big part of that budget. For more detail, check out the links below.

Food Price Outlook, 2016-17 | USDA via Business Insider

Photo by tasha.