GOPers are frantic to cut Social Security before the truth gets out - that people under 40 are in great shape to collect Social Security.

The GOP wants to seize the moment and kill Social Security. They are hyping the "Ponzi scheme" story line using everyone from big name pundits

......to addled man-in-the-street fuckwits:



Just this week the Wall Street Journal (long a source of right wing editorial nonsense that never hesitates to contradict its own news desk) gave us this dire warning about Social Security:



If you're under 45, you have plenty to worry about.

Well with all due respect (eg - "Bullshit!"), I disagree.

Because, by 2050, the crisis will in fact largely be resolving all by itself. You see, the Baby Boomers will be dying off rapidly, and the supposedly intractable funding problems facing people under 40 will be revealed as nothing but a mirage. And the GOP is desperate to make changes Now!!! before the public catches on.

America had very high birth rates from the end of WW2 (1946) until the birth control pill became widely available (1965), and that group is the "Baby Boom" shown in orange in the picture below:



The Baby Boom is the demographic goat in the python that is supposed to bankrupt Social Security. The reason this is a looming problem is that the Boomers have started hitting retirement age (1946+65=2011), supposedly at the rate of 10,000 a day.

To see how long the Boomers will live, we can check the Social Security age/survival curves through 2100:



Figure 5—Survival Function for SSA Population for Selected Calendar Years (1900, 1950, 2000, 2050, 2100)

See? That's the Boomers, fourth line from the left and second line from the right, showing mortality of Social Security recipients at year 2050. At 2050, the youngest Boomers will be 85 years old (2050-1965=85) and, according to the survival curves, half of even the youngest boomers will be dead. The oldest boomers will be 104 years old (2050-1946=104) and the number still living will be statistically insignificant. And I think the projected 5% survival at age 100 for the youngest Boomers is probably overly optimistic.

But the lesson is clear - By 2050, most of the Baby Boom will dead. And people who are under 40 should be in great shape to get Social Security benefits.

