Getty GOP insiders: Jindal and Pataki quit next Rand Paul’s on the departure list too, insiders predict.

Bobby Jindal and George Pataki are the next two quitters in the Republican field.

That’s the assessment of Republicans in the POLITICO Caucus, our weekly bipartisan survey of the top activists, operatives and strategists in Iowa and New Hampshire.


A quarter of Iowa Republicans say it’s Jindal, a frequent visitor to their state, who is on his way out.

"He's become desperate," an Iowa Republican said. "He's taken to attacking Trump (we know how that worked out for Perry and Walker) and has nothing going on here in Iowa."

Added another, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely: "He's taken the hard inside right lane, and there's simply too much competition there (Cruz, Huckabee, Santorum)."

But in New Hampshire, Pataki is considered most likely to drop out next, with 27 percent of Republican insiders there pointing to him.

"There comes a point when his irrelevance becomes crystal clear even to him," a New Hampshire Republican said.

"The Spice Girls were big in the 1990s, too, but no one wants to see them on a reunion tour," snarked another New Hampshire Republican.

Agreed a third, "The only question is why he wasn't out before Perry and Walker."

In both states, Rand Paul came in second. Several insiders said that at some point, Paul will need to focus on winning reelection to his Senate seat.

"Rand Paul’s campaign [reeks] of the same stench of death that surrounded the Perry and Walker efforts before their demise," said a New Hampshire Republican, who was one of 22 percent of those voters to name the Kentucky senator. "Paul’s polling is anemic, his fundraising is lagging, his campaign is disorganized and he is in danger of getting bumped off the main debate stage. He also has to consider when it’s time to cut bait and focus on running for reelection to the Senate. His time is running short."

Said an Iowa Republican of the Kentucky GOP: "KYGOP is going to pressure him to concentrate on the US Senate race. There is no path to victory for him in the presidential race."

"Paul's making no traction in the polls, and he's the only one who also faces re-election next year in a race that could unnecessarily complicate our Party's chances of holding the Senate majority," agreed a New Hampshire Republican. "His dad came in second to Romney in the New Hampshire primary in 2012, but so far, Rand has shown no ability to win over those same supporters, or harness that same energy or get those same liberty-minded wing of the party behind his candidacy."

Democrats split on the questions between Jindal and Paul – 40 percent of Iowa Democratic insiders picked the Kentucky senator and 34 percent of New Hampshire Democrats named Jindal.

Said an Iowa Democrat who agreed with Republicans in the state that Jindal is on the way out, "Of the candidates who began this race with a realistic shot at being the next President, he is the one with the least traction and room for growth. Just like Walker, he has no path to break out of the polling oblivion and his fundraising will dry up soon just like Walker's did."



These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus (not all of whom participated this week):

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.