“All wars in history were miscalculated. With the sort of weapons we both have, can we afford any miscalculation?” Those were Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan’s words to India yesterday.

While the world’s attention was focused on nuclear threats from Iran and North Korea, one of the oldest and most unpredictable nuclear relationships has flared up: India and Pakistan. India’s recent airstrikes deep inside Pakistani territory, and Pakistan’s downing of Indian fighter jets, may become the subcontinent’s “Archduke Ferdinand” moment.

This is particularly dangerous because both countries have domestic audiences that are thirsty for blood. While many of Pakistan’s Islamists will be ready for holy war against the Hindu state, Narendra Modi’s government – long affiliated to the far-right (and formerly outlawed) RSS paramilitary group – may be ready to escalate the conflict, against a backdrop of rising anti-Muslim hate across India.

It is essential the international community step in to avoid nuclear war in a region that has been neglected for too long. A peacekeeping force in Kashmir – the hotspot at the centre of tensions – should be the minimum action taken.

If the world cannot cool tensions in Kashmir, the region will always remain on the brink of war. As well as two states with huge heavily armed forces with an array of US and Chinese-made conventional weapons (not to mention nuclear warheads), both countries have non-state actors that would likely keep any conflict going for years, if not decades.

Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Show all 28 1 /28 Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Activists of Al-Badr Mujahideen, an islamic militant group, burn an effigy of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during an anti-India protest in Peshawar, Pakistan AFP/Getty Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures A Pakistani girl holds a light candle during a vigil for peace in Lahore on March 3 AFP/Getty Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures School children react as they celebrate the release of Indian Air Force pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman by Pakistan at a school in Ahmedabad Reuters Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Indian pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan, stands under armed escort near Pakistan-India border in Wagah Reuters Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Indian Border Security Force soldiers patrol along the border with Pakistan EPA Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures A videograb allegedly shows the captured Indian Air Force pilot in the custody of Pakistani military SWNS Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Pakistani civil society activists hold anti-war signs during a peace rally in Islamabad AFP/Getty Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Pakistani civil society activists hold anti-war signs during a peace rally in Islamabad AFP/Getty Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Activists of Al-Badr Mujahideen, an islamic militant group, burn an effigy of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during an anti-India protest in Peshawar, Pakistan Reuters Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Kashmiri villagers look on at the smouldering wreckage of an Indian fighter jet after it was shot down by the Pakistani military AP Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Indian soldiers and Kashmiri onlookers stand look on as an Indian army helicopter lands near the site where an Indian Air Force jet was shot down by the Pakistani military AFP/Getty Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures An Indian soldier gestures near the wreckage of an Indian Air Force fighter jet that was shot down by the Pakistani military AFP/Getty Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Supporters of a Pakistani religious group Islami Jamiat-e-Talaba brand Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi a terrorist at a rally to condemn Indian aggression AP Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Indian soldiers and Kashmiri villagers look on at the smouldering wreckage of an Indian fighter jet after it was shot down by the Pakistani military AFP/Getty Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures India's Border Security Force soldiers patrol along the fenced border with Pakistan on February 26 Reuters Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Protesters in Pakistan march against Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after the Indian airstrike on allege Pakistan terrorist camp EPA Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Supporters of India's ruling Bhartiya Janta Party workers hold Indian flags as they celebrate the Indian airstrike on allege Pakistan terrorist camp AP Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Protesters in Pakistan march against Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after the Indian airstrike on allege Pakistan terrorist camp EPA Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures People in India burn an effigy that represents Pakistan as they celebrate the Indian airstrike on allege Pakistan terrorist camp Reuters Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Indian soldiers and Kashmiri villagers look on at the smouldering wreckage of an Indian fighter jet after it was shot down by the Pakistani military AFP/Getty Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Bhartiya Janta Party workers hold Indian flags as they celebrate the Indian airstrike on allege Pakistan terrorist camp EPA Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Pakistani Kashmiris in the border town of Chakoti walk past India-bound cargo trucks that are parked as the road to India is closed AP Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Pakistani Army soldiers escort journalists to the scene where Indian fighter jets struck in a violation of Pakistani airspace EPA Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Pakistani Army soldiers escort journalists to the scene where Indian fighter jets struck in a violation of Pakistani airspace EPA Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Pakistani Army soldiers escort journalists to the scene where Indian fighter jets struck in a violation of Pakistani airspace EPA Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Workers enter a concrete bunker that they have built in a residential area near the border Reuters Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Pakistani soldiers and journalists gather at the site where Indian fighter jets struck in a violation of Pakistani airspace AFP/Getty Pakistan shoots down Indian fighter jets: Reaction in pictures Pakistani soldiers and journalists gather at the site where Indian fighter jets struck in a violation of Pakistani airspace AFP/Getty

While Pakistan’s struggle with Islamist movements is well known, India’s recent history of swinging to the far right is less publicised – but no less dangerous.

For some time Mein Kampf has been one of the bestselling foreign titles in India. With the rise of the right-wing BJP government, Hindutva politics – what some would call Indian fascism – has permeated many parts of Indian society.

As the belief spreads that India is first and foremost a Hindu state, hate crimes such as Muslim men being murdered for eating beef (cows are sacred to many Hindus) are an almost daily occurrence. And any Hindu girl rumoured to be entertaining any romantic interest in a Muslim boy will likely find her life is in danger.

We often forget India’s capacity for ethno-terror: the deadliest terrorist attack before 9/11 was by an Indian Sikh group. Far away from the backpackers, yoga retreats and call centres that modern India is famous for, there is another India – and it is ready for war.

This goes right to the top. Prime minister Narendra Modi, famous for his warm diplomatic hugs, is a reported member of the RSS paramilitary group, the closest western equivalent of which is the Ku Klux Klan. Due to his role in the anti-Muslim Gujarat riots – that led to more than 1000 Muslim deaths – Modi was also banned from visiting the UK, the US and many countries in Europe.

RSS and their allies have popularised “Saffron terror” – the idea Hindu nationalists must conduct terrorist attacks to preserve the Hindu character of India. This is a tradition that goes back to 1948 when an RSS member assassinated Mahatma Gandhi. More recently, Modi’s brethren in the group have incited anti-Muslim riots, attacked mosques and even put a price on the head of Christian pastors in the eastern Indian state of Orissa.

All this makes the propaganda value of Indian blood being shed in Kashmir huge. Despite there being no evidence of Pakistani involvement in the recent attack, Pakistan was swiftly blamed. The attacker was an Indian Muslim citizen, which suggests that rather than point the finger at Islamabad, India would be better off asking why so many of their Muslim minority (who number more than the entire population of Pakistan) are so disillusioned.

But there is hope. Citizens on both sides of the border took to social media yesterday with the hashtag #SayNoToWar.

And rather than extract a televised confession from the pilot of the downed Indian fighter jet, in a move that would have played phenomenally well to the Islamist right domestically, Pakistani authorities showed commendable restraint.

Let us hope that between cool heads in the region, and intervention from the UN Security Council, war can be averted. With the sort of weapons they both have, neither India nor Pakistan can afford any miscalculation.