Monday 21st September 2015

"The King is dead, long live the King" Senator Eric Abetz, Government Leader in the Senate

As Federal Opposition leader, Tony Abbott led the charge against Labor, relentlessly exploiting the division and chaos which plagued the Rudd and Gillard governments. He successfully defined the ALP as a party of backroom plotters, who callously ditched a first term Prime Minister when the opinion polls became dire.

Fast forward two years and Tony Abbott is himself a first term Prime Minister toppled from power.

"Poll-driven panic has produced a revolving-door prime ministership, which can't be good for our country." Tony Abbott, on his final day as Prime Minister

Monday's Four Corners brings you the story of why the Liberal Party removed its own first term Prime Minister.

"I think people stopped trusting him."

And how the plan to unseat him unfolded:

"They were assiduously doing numbers against the Prime Minister, even while they were being promoted."

We hear from those close to him about the moments, behind closed doors, after Tony Abbott's defeat:

"I gave him a hug and said 'you know PM, you've done your best and you've got a lot to be proud of'."

Dethroning Tony Abbott, reported by John Lyons and Marian Wilkinson and presented by Kerry O'Brien, goes to air on Monday 21st September at 8.30pm. It is replayed on Tuesday 22nd of September at 10.00am and Wednesday 23rd at midnight. It can also be seen on ABC News 24 on Saturday at 8.00pm, ABC iview and at abc.net.au/4corners.

Transcript

21 September 2015 - Dethroning Tony Abbott

KERRY O'BRIEN, PRESENTER: Tonight on Four Corners: the undoing of a prime minister. How Tony Abbott was brought down.

MICHAEL YABSLEY, FORMER LIBERAL PARTY TREASURER: I think it was incredibly well executed.

JOURNALIST: How are you feeling, Mr Abbott?

MICHAEL YABSLEY: You don't have a successful leadership challenge without there being blood on the floor.

CORY BERNARDI, LIBERAL SENATOR: There was treachery of the highest order. We had a prime minister that was torn down. Whether he was good, bad or indifferent, it's my view - my firm view - that it's wrong to do that to a prime minister, particularly in their first term of government.

TONY ABBOTT, PRIME MINSTER 2013-15: I've never leaked or backgrounded against anyone and I certainly won't start now.

PETER COSTELLO, FEDERAL TREASURER 1996-2007: That is the business of politics. You know, you want to be a surgeon, don't complain about blood.

TONY ABBOTT: Thank you.

KERRY O'BRIEN: Prior to Kevin Rudd, Australia had had four prime ministers in 32 years. We've now had another five in five years.

At least after the ruthlessly efficient coup in which Malcolm Turnbull replaced Tony Abbott, there seems a chance of stability - until the next election, less than a year away. But the game is now dictated by new rules: government by opinion poll.

So how did Malcolm Turnbull pull it off with a minimum of recriminations from the losers? And what was at the heart of Tony Abbott's failure?

Reporters John Lyons and Marianne Wilkinson have spoken to key Liberals for this post-mortem on Tony Abbott's political demise.

TONY ABBOTT, PRIME MINISTER 2013-15: What a fraud! What a phony! What a complete fake this prime minister is...

JOHN LYONS, REPORTER: He was fearsome in political combat.

TONY ABBOTT: Don't yawn, prime minister; answer the question! Don't stare at your notes, listen!

JOHN LYONS: A man who could pull down those in the highest office in the land. He tore down one Labor prime minister, then set about attacking another - who returned fire.

JULIA GILLARD, PRIME MINISTER 2010-13: I say to the leader of the Opposition: I will not be lectured about sexism and misogyny by this man. I will not!

JOHN LYONS: But then she, too, fell victim to this natural-born political killer.

TONY ABBOTT: How can anyone believe anything that this prime minister says?

(Footage of Liberal Party election victory, Sep. 2013)

LIBERAL SUPPORTERS (chanting): Tony! Tony! Tony!

JOHN LYONS: Then he defeated Kevin Rudd for a second time, this time in a general election. Finally, the great political pugilist had won the prize.

PETER COSTELLO, FEDERAL TREASURER 1996-2007: He was a marvellous Opposition leader.

BILL SHORTEN, OPPOSITION LEADER: And Abbott and "Prime Minister Land" is excuse land.

JOHN LYONS: But then he struggled to make the change from political destroyer to leader of the nation.

TONY ABBOTT: Madam speaker, tell them they're dreaming.

AMANDA VANSTONE, FORMER HOWARD GOVERNMENT MINISTER: Tony Abbott was probably the best Opposition leader I can remember: extraordinarily focused and hardworking, absolutely committed.

But you do need to remember that you can't build yourself up by putting other people down. In a sense, that's the Opposition leader's job, but then you've got to put that aside and build yourself up. And he just never managed to do that effectively with the public.

JOHN LYONS: This is the story of how Tony Abbott crashed to earth so quickly and so spectacularly. It's also the story of a government that was dealt a bad economic hand - but rather than fix it, it kept falling over itself.

And it's the story of Malcolm Turnbull, a man who always coveted the top job and watched Tony Abbott's every move. And when Abbott was weak, Turnbull struck - ruthlessly and cold-bloodedly.

PETER COSTELLO: This is the problem with politics: it's a brutal business. Ah, there's, there's no happy way out of politics. You either get struck down, ah, um, or you get put out to pasture. But, ah, I think it was Enoch Powell said: "All political careers end in tears."

JOHN LYONS: From its first day in office, the Abbott government set a frenetic pace: scrapping the carbon and mining taxes, signing free trade agreements and, against all predictions, delivering on its promise to "stop the boats."

(Footage of budget night, Parliament Lower House, May 2014)

BRONWYN BISHOP, LOWER HOUSE SPEAKER 2013-15: I call the Honourable the treasurer.

MPs: Hear, hear.

JOHN LYONS: But its momentum was blown away by the government's first budget.

JOE HOCKEY, TREASURER 2013-15: This budget will help build a more prosperous nation.

(MPs applaud. Footage ends)

PETER COSTELLO: I think there were some decisions that were probably unwise. There were some that were not explained well. And there was a Senate that was bloody-minded.

JOHN LYONS: As treasurer in the Howard government, Peter Costello delivered 12 budgets.

PETER COSTELLO: I don't think they r- they explained to the public the nature of the problem. I don't think they explained it, um, over and over and over again. And then when they dealt with it, the public felt, um, they were getting a really tough treatment for a... some kind of sickness that they didn't really understand. Um, you know, "Here's the operation but I've never actually told you what the problem is that I'm trying to fix."

MARK TEXTOR, LIBERAL PARTY CAMPAIGN STRATEGIST: Perhaps if there is one thing, ah, Mr. Abbott wanted to do again is to, is to demonstrate more acdep- adaptivity when it come, you know, when it came to economic strategy: adapting to changing circumstances and setting a clear direction.

Um, all the other things, ah, e- so that the, the absence of that clear, enunciated- the enu- enunciation of a key- clear strategy created a vacuum. And into that vacuum came all these other minor things. Um, so rather than those things being a distraction, I saw them as a symptom of people's concern about a lack of an economically adaptive strategy that would take us forward.

JOHN LYONS: Rarely has any government lost so much political capital from its first budget.

AMANDA VANSTONE: It's very difficult when you have to rein a budget in to argue that you can pay $70,000 to people because they're having a baby, but you're going to take some money off, for example, pensioners. Now, that was a captain's pick. It was Abbott's policy. Ah, Hockey was stuck with that and I think it ma- made it very hard for Joe.

(Montage of Joe Hockey exercising, in Parliament, at press conferences)

MATHIAS CORMANN, FINANCE MINISTER: Righto.

JOE HOCKEY: Let's go.

MATHIAS CORMANN: Which way?

JOE HOCKEY: We are a nation of lifters, not leaners.

MPs: Hear, hear.

JOE HOCKEY: Look, i-i-if housing were unaffordable in Sydney, no one would be buying it.

JOE HOCKEY: The poorest people either don't have cars or actually don't drive very far in many cases.

JOHN LYONS: Pictures of Hockey smoking a cigar only reinforced a perception of a government out of touch with ordinary Australians.

VOICE (off-screen): Well done, mate. Proud of you.

JOHN LYONS: Journalist Niki Savva was formerly a senior staffer in the Howard government.

(Footage of Peter Costello and Niki Savva walking to meeting with John Howard)

PETER COSTELLO (laughs) (archive): Hello!

NIKI SAVVA, COLUMNIST, THE AUSTRALIAN: The greater problem, I think, was that you not only had, um, a treasurer who was not exactly, you know, the greatest salesman for, um, economic, ah, policy or economic reform, but you also had a treas- a prime minister, sorry, who seemed to be incapable of it as well.

So you might be able to get away with having one or the other not quite on top of it, but if you've got both the prime minister and the treasurer who don't seem to be on top of it, then, then you're pretty much done for.

JOHN MADIGAN, INDEPENDENT SENATOR FOR VIC: And the people who are losing their jobs...

JOHN LYONS: Adding to Abbott's woes was a hostile Senate: a sometimes eccentric group of crossbenchers who opposed key economic programs.

MARIAN WILKINSON, JOURNALIST: Tony Abbott on various occasions described the crossbenchers in the senate as "unworkable." Do you...

NICK XENOPHON, INDEPENDENT SENATOR FOR SA: Um... The only thing that was unworkable were the policies of the Abbott government, that were a litany of broken promises, poorly thought-out policies. The unintended consequences weren't thought through. What was unworkable were the policies, ah, not the Senate.

PETER COSTELLO: The crossbenchers have to become your, your greatest friends. They have to become your drinking buddies, your eating buddies, ah, your sporting buddies, your... You, you know, you-you have to be on first-name basis of- you've- they've, they've got to be like your, your, your Canberra mistress. Ah, they've got to be somebody that you're with all the time, being attentive to.

Ah, and maybe it takes some time to learn that. But, ah, I thought after a year, ah, the government had began to realise that it needed to pay more attention to those crossbenchers.

BARNABY JOYCE, DEPUTY LEADER, NATIONAL PARTY: You know, there's no point throwing rocks at them, because they can - unfortunately, all they have to do is cross the floor and stop you.

JOHN LYONS: There was another time bomb ticking away, this time at the very heart of the Abbott government: Peta Credlin, the prime minister's all-powerful chief of staff.

NIKI SAVVA: I think Peta Credlin's role was massive in his demise. I think, ah, the combination of, um, Abbott and Peta Credlin was deadly. And it was, ah, very unfortunate because the combination of the two of them before the election was quite formidable. Ah, she did, um, in effect, help him get the job. He credits her with making him prime minister and that is probably true. But it is also true that she helped bring him down. And the even sadder part of that is that he allowed her to do it.

JOHN LYONS: Abbott gave Credlin his full authority - and she used it.

AMANDA VANSTONE: People felt she was more of a doorway, blocking off access to the prime minister, rather than a bridge. And a chief of staff really does need to work: um, perhaps sometimes as a door that blocks people off to protect the prime minister, but always has to work as a bridge.

MICHAEL YABSLEY, FORMER LIBERAL PARTY TREASURER: Well, basically she became the de facto chief. And there was no great secret about the fact that she was referred to by the prime minister as "the chief". Ah, in, in so many respects she came to have the role with the prime minister's colleagues that the prime minister should've had. And this made her an extraordinarily powerful person. To many of the backbench, she got to be beyond question simply because someone who does wield that much power: it's very hard to create a check and a balance in relation to them.

Tony was always the very, um, the-the genuine article...

JOHN LYONS: Michael Yabsley, a former Minister in the New South Wales Liberal government, became federal treasurer of the Liberal Party in 2008.

MICHAEL YABSLEY: I think that was probably one of his great strengths...

JOHN LYONS: Yabsley resigned two years later. He believes it was a conflict of interest to have a husband-and-wife team as the two most senior advisers to the prime minister: Peta Credlin and Brian Loughnane, federal director of the Liberal Party.

MICHAEL YABSLEY: Look, I think there is a, a long-standing practice that goes along these lines: that the, the Prime Minister's Office keeps an eye on the party and the party keeps an eye on the Prime Minister's Office.

Now, that's in- that, that check and balance, that particular check and balance simply cannot exist, um, where you have the most senior person in the Prime Minister's Office married to the most senior person in the Liberal Party.

Again, this is not about gender; this is about how appropriate it is to have a personal relationship, ah, as, as close as that. At the same time, you're asking everyone to believe, "Oh, but, you know, one keeps an eye on the other." It just doesn't pass muster.

JOHN LYONS: All sorts of commentators and analysts urged Tony Abbott to resolve the Peta Credlin problem. And yet he stuck with her to the end. Why do you think that was?

MICHAEL YABSLEY: Good question. And, you know, we might die wondering what the answer to that is. At the very least, you would have to say that the prime minister had a blind spot in relation to this person who without a doubt, um, he admired greatly. He thought she was terrific at policy. He thought she was terrific at administration. And yet the blind spot related to the damage that she was doing to the raft of relationships that were so important to him as prime minister.

JOHN LYONS: Increasingly isolated, Tony Abbott attacked those who saw Credlin as a problem - accusing them of sexism.

TONY ABBOTT (Dec. 2014): Do you really think my chief of staff would be under this kind of criticism if her name was P-E-T-E-R as opposed to P-E-T-A?

I think people need to take a long, hard look at themselves with some of these criticisms.

NIKI SAVVA: In other words, he was calling his own people sexist. Well, that that sent them troppo, um, really, because it had nothing to do with it. It had nothing do with, you know, her gender or, or anything. It was, you know, her method of operation.

MARIAN WILKINSON: Can you tell us something of Credlin's relationship with Julie Bishop who was, in fact, Deputy Liberal Leader?

NIKI SAVVA: Julie, being the Deputy Leader, was also copping a lot of the complaints from other ministers and backbenchers about the way the Prime Minister's Office was being run. So it was her duty as Deputy to pass on these complaints to the prime minister. So she did that.

And, in fact, last year, ah, she had a meeting with the prime minister and in effect, ah, told him that, um, it would probably be best if, ah, Peta Credlin was removed. Ah, this was I think around, ah, November, from memory.

But the response of the prime minister to that was: "Well, you know, Julie, without Peta you would not be here." And I think, um, Julie would have found that, ah, quite insulting.

(Footage of Tony Abbott talking talkback call, ABC Radio 774 Melbourne, May 2014)

RADIO CALLER (phone): I work on an adult sex line to make ends meet.

(Tony Abbott winks to host off-camera)

TONY ABBOTT (Feb. 2015): There was a holocaust of jobs under members opposite!

TONY ABBOTT (Oct. 2014): Look, I'm going to, ah, shirt-front Mr Putin. Ah, you bet you are. Ah, you bet I am.

(Footage of Tony Abbott eating a raw, unpeeled onion)

JOHN LYONS (voiceover): As the months went by, the prime minister's gaffes often held him up to ridicule.

JOURNALIST: That wasn't a dare, prime minister?

(Footage ends)

BARNABY JOYCE: It's one of the great frustrations in politics that the person you see every morning at 8:30 isn't the caricature created out in the public. The caricature of Tony Abbott was entirely different. And when I saw the caricature I'd say, "Oh well, I-I find, you know, that is, ah, something that's slightly, um... um, um, er, er, excessive; um, slightly, ah, objectionable." But the caricature was not the pe- person that we saw, but it was too late: the clay had been baked.

SARAH FERGUSON, PRESENTER (7.30, Jun. 2014): Can you say, hand on heart tonight...

JOHN LYONS (voiceover): Throughout it all, Malcolm Turnbull was waiting in the wings.

MALCOLM TURNBULL, SHADOW COMMUNICATIONS MINISTER (7.30, Jun. 2014): I don't have any ex- I don't have any plans, any desires, any expectations to be the leader. That's true. Ah, having said that, Sarah - and I'm going to be, I'm going to be very honest with you here - politics is an unpredictable business.

So people say to me often, "Do you think you'll be leader again?" And I say, "My prospects are somewhere between nil and very negligible." And I think that is probably about right.

JOHN LYONS: How long do you think Malcolm Turnbull's been thinking about becoming prime minister?

MICHAEL YABSLEY: I would say since about 1968. (Laughs)

TONY ABBOTT (Jan. 26 2015): Well, I am really pleased that the Queen has seen fit to award knighthoods in the Order of Australia to Prince Philip for his very long life of duty and service.

JOHN LYONS: Tensions erupted on Australia Day this year after Tony Abbott awarded a Knighthood to 93-year-old Prince Philip.

PETER COSTELLO: I was actually at a barbeque and the news came through. You talk about figurative barbeque stopper: (laughs) this was a literal barbeque stopper. (Laughs) You know, I think everyone saw what was on the end of everybody's knife and fork. (Laughs) Didn't expect that one on Australia Day.

JOHN LYONS: Why do you think that caused Tony Abbott so much damage in the broader community?

PETER COSTELLO: Well, it was just so unexpected. It w- it was just... Of all the things you would have expected on Australia Day, you know, that, that wasn't one of them. You might have expected, you know, a steak and a few sausages and a few beers. You wouldn't have expected that.

TONY ABBOTT: As you'd expect, I have pretty candid conversations with...

AMANDA VANSTONE: I was just shocked, frankly. I was shocked at the reintroduction of knights and dames - apparently that was a captain's pick - and thought, "Well, ah, gee, I hope we don't see any more of that!"

But then, ah, following that and following the reaction to that - which, let's face it, was not positive, I think that's an understatement - to choose the Australia Day honours awards time to make Prince Philip a knight seemed to me to be extraordinarily out of touch.

MICHAEL YABSLEY: This was a bad moment. I mean, this was this was worse than the "P-E-T-A, P-E-T-E-R" moment. This had the makings of a, of an April Fool's Day prank about it. And I... I don't know anyone - even the most staunch monarchists - I do not know anyone who thought that this was even vaguely a good idea. It was an awful call and I think, you know, Tony, Tony knows that it was an awful call. Um, but he made it and he's paid a very heavy price.

NIKI SAVVA: Then, of course, there was the Queensland election where Campbell Newman, who had had a massive, um, victory only a few years before, was turfed out by Annastacia Palaszczuk. So that really rocked them because they thought, "If that can happen to Campbell Newman, that can happen to us."

JOHN LYONS: And so the first coup attempt against Tony Abbott was launched. On February the ninth this year, 101 members of the parliamentary Liberal Party gathered in Canberra.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Good morning. Good to see you.

Malcolm Turnbull did not strike.

MICHAEL YABSLEY: Malcolm had been for two years impeccably behaved: no leaking, ah, no destabilising, no sniping. And I think the fact that no-one has ever been able to pin anything on him is probably the ultimate proof that he was, in fact, on his best behaviour.

JOHN LYONS: But do you think he had the numbers in February?

MICHAEL YABSLEY: Probably not.

JOHN LYONS: Thirty-nine voted against Abbott. What was ominous for the prime minister was that, in effect, they were voting for an empty chair. No challengers had declared themselves.

Tony Abbott was shaken.

TONY ABBOTT (Feb. 2015): Um, er, the-the-the point I make is that, ah, this has been a very chastening experience, obviously.

JOHN LYONS: The prime minister made one comment which left him open to widespread ridicule.

TONY ABBOTT: And good government starts today. Good government starts today. Andrew?

NICK XENOPHON: When Tony Abbott said, ah, after the leadership spill in February that "good government starts today," the implication is: what the hell have you been doing in the past 18 months?

TONY ABBOTT (Feb. 2015): Well, there, there are no secret deals.

NIKI SAVVA: It's my understanding that he actually said to people, "Give me six months to turn it around." It wasn't a deadline that they imposed on him; it was a deadline that he imposed on himself.

TONY ABBOTT (Feb. 2015): I am determined to deliver in the weeks and months and years ahead.

PETER COSTELLO: I'm sure the senior members of, ah, of the Abbott government will look back and say, "We missed that warning shot." In my experience, your best friends are those that'll tell you truth. You know, you may not like it but they're the people who've got your ultimate interests at heart. And, you know, I think the best friends of the government's were trying to say. "There are some problems here," but unfortunately the problems weren't addressed.

JOHN LYONS: For two months the government's fortunes improved. A focused Tony Abbott set about removing the so-called "barnacles" from the ship of state.

He dumped the GP co-payment, abandoned changes to the unemployment allowance and Peta Credlin disappeared from Cabinet meetings.

MICHAEL YABSLEY: What he needed to do in February was to fix the problem altogether: to get rid of her. He chose not to do that. He sort of half-fixed it - and, and with a degree of success in that, you know, Peta Credlin more or less disappeared from the public eye. But she was still there and served as a daily reminder of the damaged relationships with so many of the backbenchers.

AMANDA VANSTONE: Politicians in the end - it doesn't matter who their best friend is, what their political allegiance in terms of a factional interest is - what matters is whether they're going to retain their seat; whether you can win government. And in the end, that is what members focus on. Can we win with this person as leader?

JOHN LYONS: Soon the pattern of self-inflicted wounds returned.

JEREMY FERNANDEZ, PRESENTER (ABC TV news, July): Ms Bishop has agreed to repay more than $5,000 she spent chartering a helicopter to a Liberal Party fundraiser in Geelong last year.

TONY ABBOTT (July): Well, obviously there's been...

JOHN LYONS: The backlash was immediate and fierce.

TONY ABBOTT (July): Bronwyn Bishop has done the right thing.

JOHN LYONS: Abbott, loyal to a fault, stood by Bishop as the government bled.

NICK XENOPHON: The Bronwyn Bishop "Choppergate" saga was emblematic of the sense of frustration, disillusionment and disgust many Australians feel about politicians. The fact that, ah, Tony Abbott, ah, held onto her for so long; the fact that Christopher Pyne was defending her 'til the very end indicates how out of touch so many pollies are with the rest of the community who are doing it really tough.

BRONWYN BISHOP: Just concerned to make the right decisions for Australia...

AMANDA VANSTONE: It's inexplicable; she says that herself. She's apologised. But it went on for days and days. Ah, it should've been nipped in the bud as soon as it was found. As soon as it was found.

PETER COSTELLO: You could tell that the public wasn't going to warm to this. Um, in my experience, one peo- once something gets into the public imagination - gets into the cartoons, gets into the jokes, gets into the emails - you, you've, you've, you've got a problem on your hand. And when, when the whole of Australia starts emailing Bronwyn Bishop jokes, as they did, you, you know that it's captured the public imagination - but not for good reasons.

JOHN LYONS: Same-sex marriage became another running sore, with the prime minister's confused message leaving many angry.

TONY ABBOTT (Aug.): We have not finalised a position to take to the next election. We have finalised a position for the duration of this term. Ah, going into the next election we'll have more to say. But the disposition is that in the next term of Parliament we will put it to the people.

AMANDA VANSTONE: There was certainly a view amongst party members that Mr. Abbott was determined to delay any decision on this as long as he could. And that annoyed some people when they- ah, they believed they had been given indications that it could be resolved sooner. And then they felt let down: that's true. And you can only let people down so often. Eventually they say, "I'm giving up on you."

JOHN LYONS: The increasing push by some within his own frontbench to bring down Tony Abbott dramatically intensified with a new stream of leaks from inside the Cabinet.

MARIAN WILKINSON: Who was responsible, do you think, for that constant leaking that you saw in the media; that constant agitation?

CORY BERNARDI: Well, only the media will ever truly know. But, um, you know, these sorts of things are designed to achieve outcomes and generally the people who get involved in it are the beneficiaries of those outcomes - whether directly or indirectly, I can't say. But, you know, to have Cabinet leak in the manner in which it did, to have two-party conversations repeated to the press, slanted along particular lines, is very disappointing. If you can't trust the person you're sitting alongside of, or opposite, ah, it becomes a huge problem. And clearly there was a problem within the Abbott Cabinet.

AMANDA VANSTONE: That's the eternal question in politics: "Who's the leaker?" (Laughs) I used to worry about who the leakers were until I realised that probably most people do it; very few don't. Most do. Um, don't listen to any prime minister who says they don't: they do, or they authorise someone in their office to do it or turn a blind eye, if you like: a Lord Nelson, ah, to it happening. They certainly do it.

NIKI SAVVA: Malcolm Turnbull since February had made a point of rebuilding bridges with people that he had, um, once, you know, ostracised or abused or, or whatever. So, um... And he can be very good at that. You know, Malcolm, as we know - the good Malcolm - can be very charming. So he was drawing a lot more people, ah, back, um, into his orbit.

AMANDA VANSTONE: Nobody seeks the job of being Australian prime minister on a mere whim: an overnight fancy, a quick sort of happy dream last night: "Let's do something today!"

Most people who want to be prime minister are a bit more cautious than that and give the matter serious reflection. And no doubt Malcolm Turnbull and, I would think, all party members, whether they were born Abbott supporters or, or, or not, would have been thinking since the February meeting: how are things going? Everyone would've been doing that. It's no surprise.

(Footage of Tony Abbott with Andrew Hastie, Canning by-election campaign, Aug. 2015)

TONY ABBOTT (Aug. 22): Look, there's a sense in which everything's a test. Every day the national government, the prime minister, every Minister is being put to the test.

So look, ah...

JOHN LYONS: Abbott's self-imposed six month deadline was up. The polls were disastrous.

With the Canning by-election looming, there were predictions of a massive swing against the government.

TONY ABBOTT (Aug. 22): Thank you so much. Thank you.

BARNABY JOYCE: What had become apparent is that we live in a new world where there's polling. And polling affects sentiment and sentiment affects backbenchers who are doing a very quick calculation as to whether they still have a job after the next election.

And that becomes entrenched. And once it be- once it becomes apparent that someone, no matter what their greatest desires may be, gets the polling, puts it over their seat, goes home, talks to their husband or their wife and they say, "Well, what are you going to do if we, if you lose your job?" And if they can't answer that question, then, um, they start looking for change.

MARK TEXTOR: Governments are either in slow declines or-or slow ascents. The famous phrase in Canberra, you know: "There's been a sea change in public opinion" after one event - it just doesn't happen like that.

It's... Negativity in politics is like an accumulating poison. That is, you accumulate it over time and then it reaches a critical level. They're not bricks: um, it's a, it's a slow drip. And so there's a combination of things that build into, um, into, ah, into the point to which it becomes critical.

JOHN LYONS: What noises were you hearing from within the Liberal Party that the attempt to topple Tony Abbott was coming?

MICHAEL YABSLEY: I think it was the, it was the repetition of the message that things are going very badly for the Abbott government - now, across a whole range of things. The, the idea that, um, after the "near-death experience," as it was termed - that there would be six months of rebuilding, of repair and that suddenly the polls would come good - I think that was always a bit of a fantasy.

JAMES GLENDAY, REPORTER (7.30, Aug.): The state's unemployment rate is also more than eight per cent.

JOHN LYONS: The dissent against Tony Abbott gained momentum in South Australia, where opinion polls showed the government was facing a wipe-out.

NICK XENOPHON: I think people stopped trusting him, particularly in South Australia. And the fact that the polls were so awful; the fact that there was a poll done in the seat of Sturt - ah, Christopher Pyne, the only member of Cabinet, er, from South Australia - ah, where, um, an unnamed candidate that I would support would outpoll Christopher Pyne by 38 per cent to 31 per cent is indicative, ah, of how toxic the Liberal brand has been in South Australia.

Um, and it was just untenable. The Liberals in South Australia faced a wipe-out not just in the Lower House, but also seeing their Senate numbers diminished even further.

CORY BERNARDI: Well, I think there's a, a couple of people who, er, fancy themselves as kingmakers in South Australia. And so, you know, they were assiduously doing numbers against the prime minister - even while they were being promoted, I should point out, um, along the way.

MARIAN WILKINSON: Was Christopher Pyne, do you think, a major player in this leadership change?

CORY BERNARDI: Oh well, that's a conclusion you'll have to draw. Um, I-I merely note that Christopher is always on the winning side of any leadership contest.

JOHN LYONS: Plotting against Tony Abbott intensified. He was seemingly oblivious.

Behind the scenes, Malcolm Turnbull's supporters were counting the numbers.

South Australian Senator Sean Edwards was sounded out about a leadership change.

SEAN EDWARDS, LIBERAL SENATOR FOR SA: Fifteen-second conversation: ah, you know, "How are you feeling?" I said, "Well, you know, it'd be really good if we got a lift."

JOHN LYONS: By that evening it was on.

PETER COSTELLO: I think once you saw an established position in the polls with the government trailing by so much for so long, something was bound to happen. The bush gets dry and the match might come from anywhere, but when it does you've got a bushfire on your hands. And the polls meant the bush was tinder dry and it was just waiting for a spark.

JOHN LYONS: The anti-Abbott sentiment intensified after the Daily Telegraph reported that Abbott was planning to dump a number of ministers in a Cabinet reshuffle.

NIKI SAVVA: Fairly or not, because of the pretty close relationship, I suppose you can say, between the Telegraph and the Prime Minister's Office, ah, the blame was laid at Credlin's feet. And that infuriated people. That was like a hand grenade being rolled down the aisle. And phones went into meltdown from, you know, MP to MP.

MICHAEL YABSLEY: It was clear that we were looking at the very least at, at a similar situation to what happened in February. The missing component in that was: would Malcolm roll the dice?

JOHN LYONS: You could hear the drums beating?

MICHAEL YABSLEY: Yes. I, I- it h- it had that, it had that sound about it.

JOHN LYONS: Did Tony Abbott realise that they were coming for him?

PETER COSTELLO: No. Mind you, nor did I. Um, everybody knew that if the polls continued as they were, something was likely to happen. But I don't think anybody would have pinpointed it as likely to happen that day, um, particularly in the week before a by-election. Um, yes, maybe you knew something was going to happen sooner or later, but no- I don't think anybody saw it coming on that particular day in September.

TONY ABBOTT (Sep. 13): I'm just not going to play these Canberra insider games...

CHRIS UHLMANN (ABC news, Sep. 13): The ones playing the games are some of his colleagues as internal chatter about another leadership spill boils. Ministers and backbenchers have been talking to the ABC and they say a move against the prime minister is likely before year's end.

NIKI SAVVA: The next significant development was a meeting on the Sunday night at the home of, ah, Peter Hendy, a marginal seat holder, at his home in Queanbeyan. And Hendy, ah, had been chief of staff to Brendan Nelson, whom Malcolm had killed off, ah, to get, ah, the leadership. So the fact that Hendy was now, um, moving towards, ah, Turnbull was, ah, very significant.

So the meeting was held there between Turnbull and his key organisers, including Arthur Sinodinos, Mitch Fifield, Scott Ryan, James McGrath: those kind of people. And by the end of the night they were pretty sure that they had the numbers.

But then it all depended on what Julie Bishop was going to do the next day. And they were, um... well, they weren't 100 per cent actually that Julie was actually going to do it; because it is a very tough thing to do, you know, for a deputy to confront the leader and say, "Your time is up." You know, "Your numbers have deserted you. It's over."

(Footage of Julie Bishop walking past reporters, Sep. 13)

REPORTER: Good morning, Minister. Does Tony Abbott have your support?

JOHN LYONS: The following day, Julie Bishop walked the corridor to the Prime Minister's Office to break the news.

SEAN EDWARDS: I would've thought that it would be singularly the hardest moment of her career. I know that she was very close, ah, to, er, the former PM and, er, I know that, ah, she is a person, ah, that she is, she is a person. We are all here and that would've been the toughest walk she's ever made.

CORY BERNARDI: You know, I've delivered some tough messages in my time. I can't imagine delivering a tougher one than that, particularly by yourself.

SEAN EDWARDS: I think, ah, Julie Bishop said six months was up and, er, and, ah, we hadn't seen the bounce that we had expected and hoped for. Tony Abbott is a very good man, ah, and, er, he served this country very well. And so I guess what you saw on Monday was a result of that.

NIKI SAVVA: She told him that he longer had the numbers. And one of the reasons, I'm told, ah, that she told him that was obviously because of the number of MPs who, um, had made their views known to her, including people that Malcolm had grossly offended in the past, who had sworn that they were never going to wear him again but who had decided that, you know enough was enough with Abbott and now they were no longer prepared to vote for him: they were going to Malcolm.

SEAN EDWARDS: And at that point I got a phone call on Monday, ah, and said that, er, ah, there was going to be a challenge. Five seconds later: "Yeah, OK. I'll see you at the meeting."

BILL SHORTEN: Can the Prime Minister nominate a single person sitting behind him who thinks he's the best possible prime minister?

JOHN LYONS: It was their last Question Time together. As they left the chamber, Malcolm Turnbull was finally ready to move.

BARNABY JOYCE: Well, I was on the backbench Committee of, um, Agriculture. And that was dropped on my desk: that, that there - the challenge was on. I, like the rest of Australia, ran out and, um, turned on the television to see what was going on.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: OK. Well, thank you very much. Ah, a little while ago I met with the prime minister and advised him that I would be challenging him for the leadership of the Liberal Party.

JOHN LYONS: Abbott tried one final desperate manoeuvre.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Thank you very much.

NIKI SAVVA: He obviously needed a deputy to run with him, so, um, he offered it to Scott Morrison. Now, clearly, um, a deputy is able to choose his or her own portfolio. So that meant that if Scott Morrison wanted to be deputy, he could then be treasurer, which meant Abbott was ditching Joe Hockey.

Ah, I'm also told that, ah, Scott Morrison did not feel comfortable about this. Firstly, he... he doesn't want to be deputy. Um, as we've seen with Julie Bishop, it's sometimes not a happy job. Um, they have to do very unpleasant things. And one also knows that Scott's ambition is probably, you know, a bit higher than, than the deputy's job.

So, um, he thought about it. Ah, he consulted with a couple of friends, including Peter Costello.

JOHN LYONS: It's now sort of quite publicly out there, at least in the reporting, that Scott Morrison rang you that afternoon, Monday, just to seek your counsel.

PETER COSTELLO: Yes, but that- that was after the whole thing had been, ah, announced publicly. The thing about Scott Morrison is: he's a pretty grown-up bloke and I think he makes his own decisions. So I wouldn't worry too much about that.

NIKI SAVVA: He didn't want to run against Julie as deputy and he didn't think it was the right thing to do to dud Joe, especially after all the assurances that Joe had been given about, ah, keeping the portfolio. So once, ah, Scott told the prime minister that, then it was finished.

(Footage of Scott Morrison walking to Liberal Party ballot, Sep. 14)

REPORTER: Will he be successful?

SCOTT MORRISON, SOCIAL SERVICES MINISTER 2014-15: That's what we'll find out.

JOHN LYONS: By the time Scott Morrison and his colleagues arrived for the vote, it was all over for Tony Abbott.

NIKI SAVVA: Scott told the prime minister that, while he would be voting for him and while he would be telling his supporters that he was voting for the prime minister, he would not be telling his supporters which way they should vote. So that left them free to vote as they wished and a number of them clearly shifted.

PETER COSTELLO: That is the business of politics. Right? You know, you want to be a surgeon, don't complain about blood. You want to be in politics, don't complain about a ballot. That's the way you get in and that's the way they take you out.

SCOTT BUCHHOLZ, CHIEF GOVERNMENT WHIP: In the leadership, it was contested by Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott. Malcolm Turnbull was successful on 54, Tony Abbott 44.

CORY BERNARDI: There was treachery of the highest order. We had a prime minister that was torn down. Whether he was good, bad or indifferent, it's my view - my firm view - that it's wrong to do that to a prime minister, particularly in their first term of government.

AMANDA VANSTONE: No-one wants to stick the knife into someone. It's not a pleasant job. No-one wants to do that.

You find yourself in the position where all of a sudden you're now going to have to make a choice. And all of Australia wants you to discuss publicly what you think. You don't want to assassinate someone publically. You want to just get into the party room and do the job as quietly as, as you can.

MICHAEL YABSLEY: I think it was incredibly well executed. You don't have a leadership challenge, you don't have a successful leadership challenge without there being blood on the floor. You take that as read. But in the scheme of things this has probably been as clean a leadership challenge, where in fact it was successful, as one could imagine.

JOHN LYONS: Over the years you've seen a lot of political executions on all sides of politics.

PETER COSTELLO: Mm. Mm.

JOHN LYONS: How do you rate this political execution?

PETER COSTELLO: Degree of difficulty? Um... er, very tough, actually. Ah, this was the execution of a first-term prime minister: very unusual in itself. And the political execution of a first-term prime minister who was from the Coalition: ah, the Liberal Party. Extremely, um, rare; probably unprecedented. Certainly unprecedented. Ah, so you've got to say that was a big execution and a tough one.

JOHN LYONS: Was it ruthless and cold-blooded?

PETER COSTELLO: Ah, it was efficient.

TONY ABBOTT (Sep. 15): Quite a crowd today. Thank you for being here. Ah, this is not an easy day for many people in this building. Leadership changes are never easy for our country.

JOHN LYONS: In the past week an extraordinary human drama played out.

TONY ABBOTT (Sep. 15): Australia has a role to play...

JOHN LYONS: For one man it was a personal tragedy; for the other the achievement of a life-long ambition.

TONY ABBOTT (Sep. 15): And may God bless this great Commonwealth. Thank you.

JOHN LYONS: Another round of political carnage, with five prime ministers in five years, suggests Australia's ruthless political culture is here to stay.

PETER COSTELLO: Here's the rule in the Liberal Party: if you win, you did the right thing. They're the rules of the Liberal Party. The Liberal Party really only rewards you for an outcome.

If Malcolm had challenged and lost, he would have done the wrong thing. But he challenged and won, so the Liberal Party regards it as the right thing. The Liberal Party doesn't give you any great rewards for, um, er, loyalty. That's not what it rewards. The Liberal Party rewards success.

JOHN LYONS: So far it looks as if...

PETER COSTELLO: Well, it looks like there's been: the public have embraced it, yes. And let's hope the public will embrace it at the next election and beyond. Yes. It looks like it was the right decision: yes, it most certainly does.

BARNABY JOYCE: This is the bleeding obvious, of course. I mean, they're absolutely- Turnbull is going to beat Shorten and, and everyone in the Labor Party knows that too. And you watch them. I'm - If I'm a reader of politics, I'll tell you exactly what's happening now. They're trying to work out how they change Shorten.

KERRY O'BRIEN: And while it's now fashionable to decry the undue influence of opinion polls, everyone in Parliament House - not least Bill Shorten - will be closely scrutinising the first post-coup Newspoll tomorrow in The Australian.

Last Monday's Canberra upheaval meant we couldn't bring you our scheduled story: Escape from ISIS. We'll be broadcasting that program in coming weeks. But next week, we have a revealing investigation by guest reporter Dr Norman Swan on the many procedures and tests ordered by doctors that are ineffective - even harmful.

Until then, good night.

END

Background Information

#LIBSPILL NEWS COVERAGE

Costello says axing Abbott 'most certainly' the right move | ABC News | 21 Sep 2015 - www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-21/peter-costello-says-liberal-leadership-spill-right-thing-to-do/6789328

Peter Costello backs the 'big, tough execution' of Tony Abbott, by John Lyons | The Australian | 21 Sep 2015 - www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/peter-costello-backs-the-big-tough-execution-of-tony-abbott/story-fn59niix-1227536033063

INTERACTIVE Malcolm Turnbull's Cabinet reshuffle: Who's going where? | ABC News | 20 Sep 2015 - www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-20/turnbull-cabinet-reshuffle-whos-going-where/6775446

Scott Morrison confirms Abbott offered to 'throw Hockey under a bus', by Phillip Coorey | Financial Review | 18 Sep 2015 - www.afr.com/news/politics/scott-morrison-confirms-abbott-offered-to-throw-hockey-under-a-bus-20150917-gjpgnl

Coalition ahead of Labor first time in one-and-a-half years after leadership spill, poll shows | ABC News | 18 Sep 2015 - www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-18/government-ahead-of-labor-first-time-in-15-years-poll/6785750

Liberal leadership: the faceless men who stalked Abbott and made Turnbull king, by Phillip Coorey and Laura Tingle | Financial Review | 18 Sep 2015 - www.afr.com/news/politics/ambush-the-faceless-men-who-stalked-abbott-and-made-turnbull-king-20150916-gjoj7h

OPINION Turnbull's rise: There's rage in Canberra, but outside it's a different story, by Barrie Cassidy | The Drum | 18 Sep 2015 - www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-18/cassidy-the-rage-in-canberra-isnt-felt-elsewhere/6783840

AUDIO Scott Morrison silent on his role in Turnbull/Abbott leadership change | The World Today | 17 Sep 2015 - www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2015/s4314268.htm

AUDIO Is Turnbull the end of Australia's coup culture? | RN The Minefield | 17 Sep 2015 - www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/theminefield/is-this-the-end-of-australia27s-political-coup-culture3f/6779660

Tony Abbott intends to remain in Parliament after losing Liberal leadership to Malcolm Turnbull | ABC News | 17 Sep 2015 - www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-16/tony-abbott-intends-to-remain-in-parliament/6781870

OPINION Malcolm Turnbull will succeed if he remains true to his word, by Niki Savva | The Australian | 17 Sep 2015 - www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/malcolm-turnbull-will-succeed-if-he-remains-true-to-his-word/story-fnahw9xv-1227530771327

GRAPHIC How Your MP Voted in Monday's Ballot | The Australian | 16 Sep 2015 - www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/malcolm-turnbull-treachery-defeated-abbott-claim-loyalists/story-fn59niix-1227529275442?sv=1ad5a163ef83c3769e5626c6ef3c707d

Malcolm Turnbull and the road trip into the soul of the new PM by Andrew Clark | AFR | 16 Sep 2015 - www.afr.com/news/politics/national/malcolm-turnbull-and-the-road-trip-into-the-soul-of-the-new-pm-20150915-gjn26e

COMMENT After the wreckage Abbott caused he still left feeling sore and under-appreciated, by Jason Wilson | The Guardian | 16 Sep 2015 - www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/sep/16/after-the-wreckage-abbott-caused-he-still-left-feeling-sore-and-under-appreciated

Will revolving-door politics in Australia bring instability? | Irish Independent | 15 Sep 2015 - www.thenational.ae/world/asia-pacific/will-revolving-door-politics-in-australia-bring-instability

Tony Abbott's speech in full: 'our country is so much better than this' | The Guardian | 14 Sep 2015 - www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/14/tony-abbotts-speech-in-full-our-country-is-so-much-better-than-this

Tony Abbott's Long Demise | The New Yorker | 14 Sep 2015 - www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/tony-abbotts-long-demise

Tony Abbott rolled by his own ministers over stripping terrorists of citizenship | SMH | 29 May 2015 - www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-rolled-by-his-own-ministers-over-stripping-terrorists-of-citizenship-20150529-ghcuxf.html

Tony Abbott defends Peta Credlin after letters from Philip Higginson expose split in Liberal Party executive | ABC News | 27 Feb 2015 - www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-24/leaked-emails-expose-split-in-liberal-party-executive/6232812

In the bunker with Peta Credlin by John Lyons | The Australian | 23 Feb 2015 - www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/in-the-bunker-with-peta-credlin/story-e6frg6z6-1227234623490

ARCHIVE Raging Turnbull - A profile by John Lyons | Good Weekend | 13 Apr 1991 - www.smh.com.au/good-weekend/gw-classics/raging-turnbull-20140904-10c7ye

ABC News Full Coverage: Liberal Leadership Turmoil - www.abc.net.au/news/story-streams/liberal-leadership/

RELATED FOUR CORNERS

House of Cards | 16 March 2015 - "The Liberal Party has dealt with the spill motion and now this matter is behind us." - Tony Abbott in February 2015. Watch Marian Wilkinson's report.

My Brilliant Career | 25 Aug 2008 - "People either love or loathe Turnbull." Are the coalition - and the country - ready for Malcolm Turnbull? Watch Sarah Ferguson's report.