South Surrey-White Rock Conservative byelection candidate Kerry-Lynne Findlay, front, sits with Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer during an interview at a cafe, while campaigning in Surrey, B.C., on Monday December 4, 2017. Findlay lost to Liberal candidate Gordie Hogg. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

Citizens in three federal ridings — in British Columbia, Newfoundland and the Greater Toronto Area — apparently have not been getting the memos about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s political troubles in Parliament this fall.

Trudeau’s Liberals won three out of four seats up for grabs in Monday’s byelections, including a seat in Surrey, B.C. that used to belong to the Conservatives. This latest net seat gain comes on the heels of a similar win in Lac-St.-Jean less than two months ago, which also represented a net loss for the Conservatives.

So when the Commons reconvenes late in January after the long holiday break, Trudeau will get to walk three new MPs up the aisle to meet the Speaker: Gordie Hogg from South Surrey-White Rock, Churence Rogers from Bonavista-Burin-Trinity and Jean Yip, keeping the Scarborough-Agincourt seat in the family after the death of her husband — the former MP for the riding, Arnold Chan.

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer will only be doing one walk down the aisle — with Rosemarie Falk, who kept the Battlefords-Lloydminister seat for her party on Monday night, as expected, after the resignation of former agriculture minister Gerry Ritz.

This is all going to be pitched as good news for the ruling Liberals and bad news for the Conservatives and New Democrats, whose shiny new leaders, Scheer and Jagmeet Singh, are not giving their parties much-desired momentum on the ground.

Frankly, though, reactions should be restrained all around.

Political die-hards like to present byelections as interim report cards on parties’ and leaders’ fortunes. But increasingly, it seems to me that byelections offer an insight into the widening gap between the politics of the parliamentary precinct — let’s call it Wellington St. — and main-street Canada.

Ever since last summer, the political headlines have been filled with bad news for Trudeau. Between ill-considered tax proposals and outrage over the wealth and assets of Finance Minister Bill Morneau, it would be easy to conclude that the Liberal brand is — as the political marketers like to say — losing its lustre.

If the outcome of the 2015 election had turned on what happened in QP, Trudeau would not be prime minister today. If the outcome of the 2015 election had turned on what happened in QP, Trudeau would not be prime minister today.

Maybe not so much, though. Canadians in B.C., Quebec, Newfoundland and Scarborough were so worked up about these political controversies that they’re sending four Liberal MPs to Ottawa this fall — two of them from ridings that haven’t elected Liberals in decades.

Someone who caught on to this disconnect early in his leadership was Justin Trudeau, of course. Shortly after Trudeau decided to seek the Liberal leadership in the fall of 2012, he got out of Ottawa and spent as little campaign time in the Commons as possible.

While all the pundits were praising NDP Leader Tom Mulcair for his dazzling daily takedowns of Prime Minister Stephen Harper in the Commons, something odd was happening. Liberals were out winning byelections — taking a seat away from the Conservatives in Labrador, one from the NDP in the heart of Toronto (Olivia Chow’s old seat, no less) and generally improving their strength on the ground.

Liberal data geeks were using the by-elections from 2013-2015 to test the party’s new skills at voter analytics. Trudeau would draw the crowds at events and the numbers folks would turn the audiences into pools of contact information for future campaigning. The trick was in finding new voters — people who had never cast a ballot before. As we saw, these new voters may have clinched the Liberals’ victories for them.

Along with voting before 2015, you know what else the people in this Liberal-targeted constituency haven’t done? They haven’t watched question period. They don’t really follow politics.

If the outcome of the 2015 election had turned on what happened in QP, Trudeau would not be prime minister today.

There is a possible silver lining here for Singh, who has decided (up to now, at least) to concentrate on building his profile outside the House of Commons, rather than seeking a seat at the first opportunity. That strategy didn’t pay off in Monday night’s byelections; the New Democrats’ share of the vote declined from 2015 levels in all four ridings.

But turnout wasn’t all that great either, at least judging by preliminary election night figures from Elections Canada. Leaving out people who registered to vote on byelection day, the turnout ranged from around 21 per cent in Newfoundland to nearly 40 per cent in B.C.

And here’s where Trudeau may want once again to curb his enthusiasm about these byelection results. Back when he was campaigning — first for the Liberal leadership and then for the prime minister’s job — Trudeau said he was going to make it his mission to reconnect Canadians with politics and government. He spoke quite passionately about what a shame it was that people knew so little of what was going on in Ottawa — that citizens were so out of touch with what their MPs were doing on Parliament Hill.

Funny how things turn out. On Monday night, Trudeau was probably relieved that Ottawa politics — all the uproar over ethics and ministerial gaffes — is so distant from the lives of people voting in those four federal ridings.

Main St. Canada still has very little to do with what’s happening on Wellington St. For now, Trudeau is probably happy about that.

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