That the King of Bahrain owes a sort of feudal allegiance to King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is a reality on the ground. That the Saudis are most concerned about growing Iranian and Shi-ite ifluence is also apparent. That Bahrain is “giving in” to demonstrators and – thereby – empowering the Shia majority is not a development that the Saudis like. That Bahrain may move from being an absolute monarchy towards a constitutional monarchy -or even worse- a parliamentary democracy is anathema in Saudi Arabia.

It is significant that the King of Bahrain, Shaikh Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, has rushed of to meet King Abdullah who has just returned after a long period abroad on medical grounds and can only be in response to a summons from his feudal lord. But Sheikh Hamad has a fine balancing act to perform. He must assuage the Saudi fears sufficiently to prevent an influx of a Saudi military presence into Bahrain while at the same time continuing the relaxation of his regulations to pacify his people. Saudi Arabia has instead decided to bribe its people rather than make any structural or political concessions and has announced $37 billion of financial benefits.

From the Washington Post:

MANAMA, BAHRAIN – On Wednesday morning, King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa boarded a plane to pay his respects to King Abdullah of neighboring Saudi Arabia, who had returned home after months abroad for medical treatments. It was a trip that underscored the extent of Saudi Arabia’s sway over the teardrop-shaped island off its eastern shore, as well the prospect that the turbulence still whirling in tiny Bahrain could have outsize repercussions in its giant neighbor. A day after tens of thousands of demonstrators turned out in Bahrain’s capital, the king is still under pressure from demonstrators who are demanding that he make democratic concessions or step aside. The Shiite-led protesters in Bahrain are demanding that the Sunni royal family grant them equal rights and an equal voice, and Saudi Arabia, home to Sunni Islam’s holiest sites, is worried that their campaign might give ideas to its own large Shiite minority. …… ……. “Saudi Arabia fears a constitutional monarchy in Bahrain,” said Kristin Smith Diwan, an assistant professor at American University who studies Islamic movements in the Persian Gulf region. “It’s about empowerment of the Shia and what that might mean for Shia in the eastern province” of Saudi Arabia, she said, in addition to fears about Iran’s influence, which she deemed largely unjustified. “In this current crisis, none of the solutions look good for Saudi Arabia,” Diwan said. “A crackdown in Bahrain would be destabilizing. A reform itself would be destabilizing, unless Saudi Arabia was willing to make some reforms.”





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Tags: Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Hamad ibn Isa Al Khalifa, Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia, Shia Islam, Sunni Islam