If the 2016 season started today, the season would already essentially be over for the Miami Marlins. Coming off a 71-91 season, the Marlins have done…nothing. Sure, there have been some minor league signings and a few rumors here and there, but so far the team is the same as it was last year: not good.

Assuming the Fish decide to keep Marcell Ozuna, the outfield should be fine. Christian Yelich is great, Ozuna has been good despite a rough 2015, and Giancarlo Stanton is one of the best players in baseball when healthy. Catcher will be fine, with sophomore J.T. Realmuto ideally improving on an already solid rookie season. The middle infield will be okay, as batting champ, steals crown, and Gold Glove winning second baseman Dee Gordon returns for his second season as a Marlin and short stop Adeiny Hechavarria hopes to improve on the significant growth he made in 2015. First base will be okay when a righty is on the mound, as lefty Justin Bour can mash right-handed pitching. Third base will be manned by solid-yet-unspectacular Martin Prado for a second season in a row. Really, the Marlins starting lineup isn’t the problem. The pitching rotation and the offensive depth however? Non-existent.

The Marlins bullpen was surprisingly competent last season, with Carter Capps putting up elite numbers to set up excellent closer A.J. Ramos. Rookies Kyle Barraclough and Brian Ellington showed well along with veteran Bryan Morris. The fish could use a lefty reliever or two, as Mike Dunn is a roller coaster that breaks down more often than it works for the past few seasons.

The bench for the Marlins is basically made up of automatic outs and lead gloves. Backup catcher Jeff Mathis is mostly expected to return despite being a free agent. Mathis hit an impressively bad .161/.214/.290 and somehow still gets work despite a career line of .194/.254/.306. He’ll play once or twice a week when Realmuto needs a breather and will basically make three or four outs every game. If Realmuto gets hurt and has to miss time, Mathis would start and easily be the worst regular in baseball. Front office favorite Donovan Solano likely has a spot on the bench as well, despite a depressing .189/.215/.244 slash line in 2015. He is somewhat versatile as he is able to play second, third, and short, but does that versatility really matter when he’s as close to a guaranteed out as anyone else in baseball? Ichiro will also be on the Marlins bench, and while he may bring excitement and intangibles to the team, his actual baseball work wasn’t much to be impressed with last season, as he stumbled his way to a .229/.282/.279 slash line. Miguel Rojas, Derek Dietrich, and Cole Gillespie likely round out the Marlins bench. Rojas is an excellent defensive infielder but doesn’t have much of a bat despite showing some good glimpses last season. Dietrich has good power, but is a defensive liability wherever he plays on the field. Gillespie played over his head last season so his decent numbers will almost certainly come down. Basically, the Marlins have a decent starting lineup. If any single one of the eight starters has to miss time though, they are looking at plugging in an automatic out for the entire time the starter sits.

Now we come to the REAL problem with the 2016 Miami Marlins: the starting rotation. Jose Fernandez is a true ace, a luxury few teams have. Assuming he stays with the Marlins, he will pitch on Opening Day and will give his team a good chance to win every time he toes the rubber. Behind him? Basically no one. Tom Koehler is the team’s number two starter. Tom Koehler is certainly a decent major league starting pitcher, but he is better suited for the back-end of a rotation or as a swing man making spot starts here and there while living in the bullpen. Koehler as a number two though, will be overmatched. In 2015, he posted a 4.08 ERA along with 11 wins in 31 starts. Koehler showed plenty of promise early in games but was completely annihilated the second or third time through the order. All pitchers have what is called a “times through the order” penalty, but Koehler’s was very obvious and fans could see the “fourth inning meltdown” coming from miles away.

Number three in the rotation? Probably Jarred Cosart. Cosart is a thrower, not a pitcher, as he seems to have no idea where the ball is going to end up once he let’s go of it. This leads to lots of walks (4.26 per nine innings) and a lot of hard hit balls. Cosart staggered to a 4.52 ERA/5.12 FIP, and needs a lot of work with his command before being an effective big league pitcher, let alone a third starter.

Next presumably comes sophomore lefty Adam Conley. Conley actually has some upside, but is by no means ready to be a starter on a team that pretends like they will be contending in 2016. In his rookie year, Conley posted a 3.76 ERA with 7.93 K/9 and only 2.82 BB/9. If he can improve on those numbers as hitters adjust to him, he could actually be the only non-Jose member of the rotation to be worth watching.

Finally, another sophomore lefty, Justin Nicolino, will likely round out the rotation. Despite some decent-looking stats like his 4.01 ERA, Nicolino showed some concerning patterns as well. For example, he struck out 23 and walked 20 in 74 innings. That comes out to a solid 2.43 BB/9 but a pathetic 2.80 K/9. At several points in the season, Nicolino actually had more walks than strikeouts. He induced relatively weak contact, but a pitcher who basically walks the same number of hitters as he strikes out is going to get knocked around before long.

So what should the Fish do? First, they need to stop pretending that they are okay going into the season with the current roster. The team won 71 games last season, and that may have been even a bit more than they will be expected to win in 2016. They need pitching and they need bench depth. The bullpen is fine, although a lefty would be nice. The starting lineup is fine, although a platoon partner for first base would be great. A new backup catcher is crucial, a better-hitting versatile infielder is critical, and a better overall fourth outfielder is key. Upgrades to the pitching staff, however? Those should be seen as mandatory. The Marlins need to sign at least two starting pitchers to have even a glimmer of hope to sneak into the second Wild Card spot. A lot would need to go right and everyone would need to stay healthy. Also, this is assuming that they add decent pitchers to the rotation, using them as a fire extinguisher to put out the dumpster fire currently lining up behind Jose Fernandez. Hopefully, the fire gets put out, but knowing the Marlins, they might just throw a fire extinguisher at the fire, unaware of how it works.