Martin Kettle: Our best hope is a temporary national government

It must not be no deal, which would make the poor poorer, disrupt the economy, isolate the country internationally, further empower racism, and revive the toxic issues of Irish unification and Scottish independence.

It’s unlikely to be Theresa May’s deal, though she may come back with sweeteners from the EU27. The problem she cannot overcome in this hung parliament is the synergetic fanaticism of the retro-imperialist Tory right and the DUP. Together they have made the backstop issue totemic because – in time-honoured fashion – they wish to retain the UK’s freedom to inflict unilateral damage on Ireland.

Nevertheless, May has levers against the less hardline leavers. One is her own patent determination to go the extra mile. But the most effective is the ticking of the clock and the well-placed fear of no deal. May’s deal, for all its faults, would be the better option.

Nevertheless there is a third option, although it is extremely fraught and contingent. It involves, first, pausing article 50, second, offering a Norway-plus arrangement and, third, if that is rejected, calling a second referendum on the original issue of remain or leave. But this depends on two huge things happening at Westminster.

First, it needs Tory leadership, possibly (though improbably) from May herself, or from a liberal Tory such as Amber Rudd, to offer a new cross-party, backbench-based pact – including both Labour and the SNP. This would be, in effect though not name, an unofficial, strictly temporary, issue-based, national parliamentary government.

Second, Labour needs to support it. This would almost certainly take place against Jeremy Corbyn’s will. The consequences for politics would be disruptive and long-lasting. But it is hard to see another way of preventing Brexit from destroying our national life – other than May getting her deal, for which there is no majority.

It is often said there is still a Commons majority for a softer Brexit or a second vote. At present, however, for all John Bercow’s heroic efforts, this majority remains an angel imprisoned within a block of marble from which it has not yet been carved. Without a sculptor, however, we are heading for no deal.

• Martin Kettle is a Guardian columnist

Katy Balls: May needs to show the backstop can be worked on

How can Theresa May snatch victory from the jaws of defeat? The prime minister’s decision to delay the vote on her Brexit deal came from a place of weakness after ministers convinced her that the scale of defeat would prove fatal not just to the deal but to her entire premiership.

Yet in choosing to delay, May has stored up more problems for herself. Arch-Brexiteers and arch-remainers wanted the vote to proceed so they could finally kill off the deal while May has lost what little goodwill she had with those ministers who were sent on the airwaves to insist the vote would go ahead.

May needs to show that she is finally listening to MPs’ concerns and that the troublesome issue of the Irish backstop can be worked on. So far, the signs are not great. May herself appeared to admit that she would not be looking to reopen the legally binding part of the deal. Meanwhile, EU leaders have been quick to say there will be no renegotiation – only a few clarifications.

This won’t be enough to assuage the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg or Boris Johnson. But they are not May’s target audience. What took both the whips and No 10 by surprise in the negative response to the deal was how MPs who come from the middle of the party on Europe – such as Will Quince, Michael Fallon and George Freeman – came out against it.

May does, though, appear to be listening to one influential Tory. She heeded the very public advice of Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, to delay the vote until the backstop had been clarified. May now needs to give those MPs who want to back her deal a reason to do so.

• Katy Balls is the Spectator’s political correspondent

Owen Jones: Labour must treat a second referendum as the last possible resort

Calling a vote of no confidence now would hand a reeling Theresa May the lifeline she desperately craves. Given the DUP’s current position is to support the government unless May’s backstop deal is passed, she would win the vote. The narrative would shift to May re-establishing her authority. Those Labour backbenchers and SNP MPs pushing for such a vote know this, of course. Ian Murray, one such Labour MP, told Radio 5 Live on Monday that after the vote of no confidence is “dispensed with” – ie lost – the party would be forced to move on the next component of its party policy, to back a second referendum. They do not want a general election to happen, and indeed it would not happen if a vote is taken now.

Labour should instead hold on until May humiliatingly fails, again, to extract any meaningful concessions from the EU. With the government then in even more catastrophically dire straits than now, there would at least be the chance of May losing a vote. That’s in line with the spirit of Labour’s 2018 conference policy, too, which prioritises a general election as “the best outcome for the country”, but that if such an election cannot be engineered, then the party “must support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote”.

It may well be that a second referendum will end up as the only option left standing. It is not the simple big red shiny button its most avid proponents suggest it is. Settling on a question and the number of options will be exceptionally fraught, and such a vote will be a viciously bitter and divisive affair, far more so than even last time. Nonetheless, the left has to prepare now for such an eventuality, not least to ensure that a remain campaign is not run by the establishment pro-status quo types who are doomed to defeat. In the meantime, though, if Labour is not going to provoke profound, irreversible disillusionment from leave voters, it has to treat a second referendum as the last possible resort. It can then tell the people of Blackpool, Mansfield and Ashfield that it did everything it could to make it work, but that the party was left with no choice.

• Owen Jones is a Guardian columnist

Catherine Haddon: Theresa May’s future depends on how her party reacts

Anger about the vote being dropped will continue to dominate the mood in parliament. If Labour get a censure motion through, it could open further moves, though a no-confidence motion seems remote just now. Labour inflicted big defeats last week and will keep pressing now – expect it to take advantage of the strong support the Speaker has shown for anything that respects the House.

There are many potential plot twists to come. Theresa May’s future depends on how her party reacts. MPs will start looking to the Christmas break, but they are also aware that the clocking is ticking for a negotiated exit. May’s immediate focus is on renegotiation. She will try to extract concessions from the EU, particularly on giving parliament a stronger say or greater reassurance on the backstop. How much she is likely to get we will know in the next few days, and the outlook is not good as the EU is already talking about not re-opening the withdrawal agreement. Yet, as Donald Tusk says, it is keen to help “facilitate UK ratification”.

The EU also wants to avoid a no-deal outcome, and we know the UK is stepping up no-deal preparation. We don’t know when the prime minister will come back with answers. After Christmas seems likely, but even with all sides of her disunited party clamouring for answers, she may not control the timetable.

• Catherine Haddon is senior fellow at the Institute for Government