2.15pm BST

• Lord Lawson, the former chancellor, has rejected suggestions that his call for Britain to leave the European Union will split the Conservative party. Until now David Cameron has been able to unite his party behind a call for an in/out referendum, with debate about how Tories would actually vote in that referendum largely postponed by the knowledge that it would not take place until after an election and a renegotiation. But today Lawson said that Cameron's referendum would fail and that Britain would be better off outside the European Union. The divisive impact of this on his party was illustrated when the World at One invited two Conservative MPs, Margot James and Bernard Jenkin, to debate each other on the in/out question. Lawson told the programme his party would not tear itself apart on this.

I think the Conservative party will have discussions about it, but it’s not going to tear itself apart, it’s not foolish enough to do that – it will have a lively discussion. And, you know, the idea that big issues should not be debated is a negation of everything that’s worthwhile in democracy.

He also dismissed Nick Clegg's claim that leaving the EU could put 3m jobs at risk.

Of course that’s poppycock, but I don’t think Nick Clegg, who’s a charming young man, has ever purported to know anything at all about economics ... If [leaving the EU] is on balance good for the economy – which I believe it is; this was not something I just did off the cuff - this was something to which I had given a great deal of thought over a very long time, and I’ve no doubt that it’s good for the economy. If it’s good for the economy, then of course it’s good for jobs.

Downing Street rejected Lawson's claim that an EU renegotiation was bound to fail and, at a briefing for lobby journalists, the prime minister's spokesman also dismissed Lawson's claim that it would lead to Britain having to give up its rebate. "We are not going to give ground on the rebate," the spokesman said. My colleague Nicholas Watt has written a blog explaining how the Lawson intervention shows how Cameron's EU strategy is backfiring.

• Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has described Lawson's comments as a "huge boost" to the Eurosceptic cause.

Lawson said he’s sceptical about climate change and opposed to building wind turbines and now we see he clearly wants Britain to leave the European Union. He may feel more comfortable staying in the Conservative party, I don’t know. The world feels like a less lonely place for me. I think that somebody of his magnitude saying look ‘this thing is gone, the economic argument is we would be better off out of it and anyway Mr Cameron’s renegotiation is bound to fail’ is a huge boost to Eurosceptic cause in the UK.

• The Institute for Fiscal Studies has said that relative child poverty will increase by more than one million by 2020 on the basis of current trends. It made the prediction in a report commissioned by the Northern Ireland executive.

In the UK, relative child poverty is projected to increase by 6.0ppts between 2010–11 and 2020–21, reversing all of the reductions between 2000–01 and 2010–11. In 2020–21, child poverty is projected to be 23.5% and 27.2% using the relative and absolute low-income measures respectively, compared to targets of 10% and 5%. This translates to increases across the decade of 1.1 million in the number of children in poverty according to the relative low-income measure, and 1.4 million in the number of children in poverty according to the absolute low-income measure.

The full figures are in the charts on pages 38 and 39 of the report (pdf). Liam Byrne, the shadow work and pensions secretary, said children were paying the price for the government's policies.

The IFS’ verdict is clear – by both internationally recognised measures, this government is set to plunge over a million children into poverty by the end of this decade, undoing all the good work of the last Labour government. Children are paying the price for a flatlining economy, falling living standards and soaring unemployment. Yet instead of giving working families a hand ministers have slapped them in the face by slashing their tax credits whilst handing a massive tax cut to the richest people in the country.

• The TUC has published a report saying that 90% of families will not gain from universal credit when wider changes to tax credits and benefits are taken into account.

• Downing Street has not ruled out trying to amend the proposed royal charter dealing with press regulation. At the regular lobby briefing for journalists, the prime minister's spokesman indicated that Cameron still supported the royal charter backed by all main parties. But he confirmed that it will not be adopted by the privy council at its meeting on 15 May, as originally planned, because an alternative royal charter has been proposed by the newspaper industry. After the consultation on the industry's royal charter has closed, the privy council will then decide how to proceed. Asked if the original royal charter could be amended, the spokesman said he would not speculate on what might or might not happen.

• Cameron has told the Somalia conference in London that he will will urge the international community to do more to support the country when he chairs the G8 summit in Northern Ireland later this year. He said the country had to overcome "huge challenges" including poverty, corruption, sexual violence against women and securing wider support for the government beyond the capital.

These challenges are not just issues for Somalia. They matter to Britain - and to the whole international community. Why? Because when young minds are poisoned by radicalism and they go on to export terrorism and extremism, the security of the whole world is at stake. And to anyone who says this isn't a priority or we can't afford to deal with it, I would say that is what we've said in the past and look where it has got us: terrorism and mass migration. We made that mistake not just in the Horn of Africa, but also in Afghanistan in the 1990s and we must not make it again.

• Downing Street has said that Cameron will tell the Sri Lankan government that it needs to make "concrete progress" on human rights, reconciliation and the peace settlement when he attends the Commonwealth heads of government meeting in the country later this year. But Douglas Alexander, the shadow foreign secretary, said tht Cameron should be "clear about the progress Sri Lanka needs to make" before he attends. The row broke out after it was revealed that the Queen will not be attending the summit and that she will be represented by the Prince of Wales. She is staying away not as a protest, but because of her age and the burden of travel.

• Number 10 has said that Cameron aims to travel to China later this year. Rejecting reports that Cameron has been declared unwelcome in the country because he met the Daiai Lama last year (see 10.55am), the prime minister's spokesman said that Chinese investment in the UK, and UK trade with China, were increasing. "We want to establish a strong relationship with China, recognising that it is in the interests of both countries to manage our differences with respect and to cooperate as much as possible," the prime minister's spokesman said.