NATSEM's modelling incorporates the impact on families' disposable income of changes made to the budget like the removal of family payments and changes to the indexation of pensions and changes to Newstart for people under 30. According to the report, Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull's electorate is least-affected from the budget. Credit:Rob Homer It also includes other measures confirmed since the budget, such as the removal of the Schoolkids Bonus in 2017 and the abolition of the carbon tax. Hardest hit is Labor MP Jason Clare's western Sydney electorate of Blaxland, where the mean hit per household will be $990 by 2017-18 and more than double that for households with children. The western Sydney electorate of Watson, held by Labor's finance spokesman Tony Burke, is the second hardest hit, with a mean out-of-pocket impact for households of $935.

The other end of the spectrum shows that four of the five electorates with the lowest impact are held by the Prime Minister and senior government ministers. Voters in Labor MP Jason Clare's western Sydney electorate are the hardest hit by the budget, according to the analysis. Credit:Max Mason-Hubers The electorate that fares best from the changes in fiscal 2017, when the changes take full effect but the temporary levy on higher income earners expires, is Wentworth, held by Mr Turnbull, where the average family is down by $69.50 over the year, a decline in disposable income of 0.1 per cent. In the three years when the deficit levy is in place, the seats of Mr Abbott, Mr Hockey and Ms Bishop don't rank in the top five, although the electorates that do best out of the budget in those years are dominated by other Coalition members of Parliament. The levy hits people earning over $180,000 per annum in taxable income.

In Mr Hockey's electorate of North Sydney, the annual loss is $138.80 for the average family in 2017-18, while in Ms Bishop's Perth-based seat of Curtin, the loss is $141.70. Mr Abbott's seat ranks fifth in electorates that do best, with the average family losing $144.60 per year, or 0.2 per cent of income. The seat of Melbourne Ports, held by ALP backbencher Michael Danby is the second best off, down $130.30.

The study, commissioned by the University of Adelaide's Australian Workplace Innovation and Social Research Centre, finds the long-term impact of the budget is most strongly felt by low income couples with children, who are on average $2780 a year worse off by 2017-18, and single parents who are $3747 a year worse off by 2017-18. For families with children, the Mr Clare's Blaxland is again worst off with an average hit of $2,118 per year while the least impacted is Liberal-held Bradfield, on Sydney's north shore, with a drop in income of $622 by 2017-18. "In terms of the smallest impact here, you're talking about the high income earners," NATSEM's principal research fellow Ben Phillips said. "High income areas have a very limited impact whereas low income suburbs are where the most impact is – particularly those where there's a large proportion of low income families with kids." Funding was provided by the Labor government in South Australia to examine the impact of the budget changes on that state's population. NATSEM, on its own volition, then used the model to obtain results for the rest of Australia.

"At no time during our work were we contacted by anyone from the SA government or Labor," said Mr Phillips. Follow us on Twitter