No fantasy football rankings are ever 100% correct. Every year, there will always be players who get taken far earlier than they should. In order to save you from reaching on an overvalued player and experiencing the inevitable disappointment that will follow, we had a total of 67 experts each vote on one QB, RB, WR, and TE they thought were most likely to become a bust and provide an explanation on who their biggest bust was and why. Below is our full tally of expert votes along with analysis on some of this year’s biggest consensus busts. Please feel free to view each expert’s choices here.

Please remember that busts are relative to draft position. If you draft a player in the top 10, and he performs like a borderline RB2/3 or WR2/3, that would be worse than a player drafted as the RB20 and finishing as the RB40.

Note: PPR ECR and ADP values are as of August 13

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Top Consensus Busts

PLAYER POS TEAM VOTE COUNT ECR Evan Engram TE NYG 23 62 Deshaun Watson QB HOU 20 55 Tyreek Hill WR KC 15 33 Jimmy Graham TE GB 13 71 Rashaad Penny RB SEA 10 72

Quarterbacks

PLAYER TEAM VOTE COUNT ECR ADP Deshaun Watson HOU 20 55 47 Jimmy Garoppolo SF 6 103 100 Russell Wilson SEA 5 44 51 Jared Goff LAR 5 115 112 Carson Wentz PHI 5 69 65 Andrew Luck IND 4 88 85 Kirk Cousins MIN 2 77 89 Alex Smith WAS 2 122 127 Tom Brady NE 2 48 55 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 2 96 101 Drew Brees NO 2 66 73 Matthew Stafford DET 1 87 98

Running Backs

PLAYER TEAM VOTE COUNT ECR ADP Rashaad Penny SEA 10 72 49 LeSean McCoy BUF 6 40 27 Derrick Henry TEN 6 59 38 Jerick McKinnon SF 5 23 23 Kareem Hunt KC 5 14 9 Jay Ajayi PHI 4 50 45 Kenyan Drake MIA 4 41 37 Alvin Kamara NO 3 7 6 Joe Mixon CIN 3 30 24 Leonard Fournette JAC 3 18 12 Christian McCaffrey CAR 2 19 17 Saquon Barkley NYG 2 9 7 Ronald Jones TB 2 78 54 David Johnson ARI 2 3 4 Le’Veon Bell PIT 2 1 2 Lamar Miller HOU 1 52 52 Dalvin Cook MIN 1 17 14 Marlon Mack IND 1 106 86 Jordan Howard CHI 1 32 25 Devonta Freeman ATL 1 22 20 Dion Lewis TEN 1 51 58 Tevin Coleman ATL 1 81 69

Wide Receiver

PLAYER TEAM VOTE COUNT ECR ADP Tyreek Hill KC 15 33 30 Brandin Cooks LAR 6 47 43 Josh Gordon CLE 5 49 48 Mike Evans TB 5 21 22 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 4 43 44 Allen Robinson CHI 4 39 41 Robert Woods LAR 3 74 80 Adam Thielen MIN 3 26 31 Julian Edelman NE 2 89 75 Sammy Watkins KC 2 65 68 Stefon Diggs MIN 2 28 32 Doug Baldwin SEA 2 29 33 Demaryius Thomas DEN 1 31 40 Davante Adams GB 1 16 18 T.Y. Hilton IND 1 24 28 Chris Hogan NE 1 60 66 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 1 25 35 Golden Tate DET 1 34 46 Robby Anderson NYJ 1 79 96 Cooper Kupp LAR 1 76 90 Sterling Shepard NYG 1 97 106 Devin Funchess CAR 1 80 79

Tight End

PLAYER TEAM VOTE COUNT ECR ADP Evan Engram NYG 23 62 62 Jimmy Graham GB 13 71 59 Greg Olsen CAR 7 57 60 Trey Burton CHI 5 93 99 Jack Doyle IND 5 105 109 Jordan Reed WAS 3 95 87 O.J. Howard TB 2 131 145 George Kittle SF 2 110 122 Zach Ertz PHI 2 36 34 Austin Hooper ATL 1 169 174 Eric Ebron DET 1 138 186 Charles Clay BUF 1 130 177 Travis Kelce KC 1 27 26 Tyler Eifert CIN 1 133 137

Q. Who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy bust and why?

Quarterback

Deshaun Watson (QB – HOU)

“It’s got to be Watson, as he’s now being drafted alongside Aaron Rodgers as the No. 1 quarterback in fantasy football at 39th overall. Not only is it wrong to take a quarterback that early, but especially one with a five-game sample size. He threw 18 touchdowns in that time, but averaged 294.4 yards per game. It’s not like that isn’t a good total, but the touchdowns were so over-weighted, as evidenced by his historic 9.3 percent touchdown rate. Guys, Tom Brady’s career touchdown rate sits at 5.5 percent. Watson is still likely to finish as a top-six quarterback due to his rushing, but drafting him anywhere in the top six rounds would be a mistake.”

– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

“Somehow, 9.3 percent of Deshaun Watson’s passes in 2017 resulted in scores, compared to a 2017 average of 4.3 percent among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts. In that same cohort of 200-attempt passers, Watson’s egregious 3.9-percent interception rate was third-worst in the NFL, ahead of only DeShone Kizer and Trevor Siemian. Put that sort of volatile and mistake-prone quarterback behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines, and I start to lose interest in fantasy. Watson can still be serviceable in fantasy thanks to his rushing ability, but serviceable quarterbacks are a dime a dozen, and Watson carries the sky-high price of QB2 in ADP.”

– Greg Smith (TwoQBs)

“I’m not questioning Deshaun Watson’s talent or potential to be a top fantasy quarterback. He put up amazing numbers in his last five games before his injury last season, in which he averaged 31.4 fantasy points per game over that span. However, those numbers aren’t sustainable throughout a full season, and his running ability could be hindered as he comes back from the ACL injury. A seven-game sample size isn’t enough to warrant drafting a quarterback as the #2 quarterback off the board, with a fourth-round ADP. I am confident he will be good, but his overall fantasy production will not return the value of his draft position in such a deep quarterback class.”

– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)

“Deshaun Watson has a myriad of red flags for someone of his ADP. First and foremost, his absurd 9.3% touchdown rate is not only unsustainable; it has a good chance of being cut in half. Even if it were at Tom Brady’s career 5.5% mark, which I’d argue would still be due for regression considering Watson’s underlying numbers, Watson would have gone from the top fantasy QB to a mid-range RB1. What’s more is that he is coming off a major surgery, has one of the worst offensive lines in football, and we are basing everything off a five-game sample size. Do I need to remind you that Blake Bortles had a five-game stretch where he was the #1 fantasy quarterback?”

– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Running Back

Rashaad Penny (RB – SEA)

“After reaching for Penny in the first round, Pete Carroll is now saying that the late-seventh round, second-year back, Chris Carson is first on the depth chart. While I don’t believe Carson will maintain the starting role, if Penny is missing first-team reps in practice, it will set him back to start the season. It also seems as though C.J. Prosise is finally healthy, and should be on the field in all passing situations. Penny’s known weakness in the passing game, both receiving and protection wise, will limit his snap count. Seattle’s porous offensive line and depleted defense will most likely keep them in negative game script situations. The numbers don’t add up for good opportunity. Penny’s current consensus ADP is 44th overall, and his ECR is 52nd overall (STD scoring). I have him at 66th overall and RB28 in my rankings.”

– Kevin Wheeler (NFL Mock)

“Perhaps by the time draft season kicks into high gear Rashaad Penny’s draft cost will be more reasonable (his ADP has already fallen 10 positions in the last month), but I can’t understand why he’s being selected as a trustworthy RB2. Seattle’s line was among the least productive in football last year, and he’s facing a lot of competition for carries. Sure, Carson, Prosise, and company have been long on promise and lacking in delivery to date, but they’re all backs who have been similarly hyped in Seattle without results. Yes, draft status buys him something, but if he’s not productive, he won’t get the carries that drafters are paying for at his current ADP. I’d much rather look for a back with less hype than sink an early-round pick in Penny and watch him bust. Carson remains atop the depth chart at the moment and is having a great camp. If he performs well, or if no one can run in Seattle again this year, that may not change.”

– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR)

“I’m going off FantasyPros’ consensus ADP, which has Rashaad Penny 21st (STD) among RBs. That might be a challenge for a rookie RB to accomplish even if there were no major obstacles to his playing time, but it’s become all but impossible to ignore the reports of Carson looking way better in training camp. Pete Carroll and his staff have generally been willing to overlook acquisition costs and give work to the players they feel are their best options at any given moment, and Carson could be that guy. Plus, I’m clinging to my hopes for health from Prosise because I think he gets quite a bit of passing down work if he can stay on the field.”

– Des Bieler (The Washington Post)

LeSean McCoy (RB – BUF)

“Even before the news of an off-field incident started to impact his ADP, McCoy was not a player I was interested in drafting. At 30 years old and with over 2,600 career touches, McCoy is a candidate to have his productivity fall off of a cliff, especially for a Bills offense that has one of the worst offensive lines in football, an unsettled quarterback situation, and perhaps the worst receiving corps in football. I don’t see any way McCoy can be an effective RB1 at this stage of his career.”

– Jody Smith (FantasyPros)

“LeSean McCoy’s draft position will vary wildly from league to league given the uncertainty around his off-field situation. However, even if McCoy suits up in September, his fantasy outlook is worrisome. The Bills’ offensive line is a shell of the dominant blocking unit from recent years, the quarterback depth chart is the least desirable of any set of passers in the league, and Corey Coleman is not fixing all that ails Buffalo’s receiving corps. Trusting a 30-year-old back to hold up under those circumstances is setting yourself up for disappointment.”

– Justin Boone (theScore)

“The number of red flags surrounding LeSean McCoy cannot be overlooked. The running back himself is now on the wrong side of 30, and the miles will eventually begin adding up considering his immense workload. More importantly, he’s arguably playing with the worst quarterback-offensive line combination in the league. Tack on off-the-field issues and McCoy isn’t someone I’d target especially with a borderline-RB1 ranking.”

– Ben Standig (The Sports Capitol)

Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)

“Fantasy owners have been waiting two years for Henry’s breakout, and they’re going to have to keep waiting after the Titans signed Dion Lewis to a big contract. Henry had two 70+-yard touchdown scampers in garbage time last season, but otherwise totaled just 597 rushing yards and 3.43 yards per carry. Lewis isn’t built to handle a bell cow role, but he will hog the passing game work and get a bigger share of the carries than Henry backers realize. Henry is being drafted inside the top 40 for his upside, but there’s little chance of him producing RB1 numbers in fantasy when he isn’t even the RB1 on his own team.”

– Andrew Seifter (FantasyPros)

Jerick McKinnon (RB – SF)

“I can’t explain McKinnon’s ADP, which is currently 21.6 overall. At that price, you can’t afford to be wrong. While I understand that McKinnon is a SPARQ score legend, he hasn’t been an efficient, productive back when given significant workloads in the past. He averaged 3.8 YPC last season, a full yard less per attempt than Dalvin Cook (and a tick less than Latavius Murray). The year before, he gained 3.4 yards per tote. He’s a fun receiver and a great athlete, but we’ve priced him at his absolute ceiling.”

– Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Sports)

“Jerick McKinnon will be this year’s biggest bust in fantasy football because of the current second-round price tag. I have concerns with the workload as he’s never had more than 159 carries in a season. Additionally, he’s averaged 3.8 yards per carry or fewer in each of the past two seasons. He should be good for 60-plus receptions if he remains healthy, but I have questions regarding that as well. Matt Breida will have significant value at some point in 2018.”

– Frank Stampfl (RotoExperts)

“Jerick McKinnon is my biggest bust. I get the hype. He moved to a Shanahan system, and he should be able to do special things in that system as a “bell cow.” I’m skeptical for a few reasons, though. First, he never performed well consistently when given the chance in Minnesota, averaging 3.6 and 3.8 yards per carry the last two seasons. Also, he was never able to keep the backfield all to himself as he was not as productive as they liked, ultimately losing work to Matt Asiata and Latavius Murray. Lastly, and I promise I had this ready to roll before this report came out, is there are now reports that the 49ers don’t view him as a “bell cow” and he could lose early-down carries to Matt Brieda.”

– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill (WR – KC)

“I expect Sammy Watkins to usurp Hill’s WR1 target share in the Kansas City offense. With the number of weapons in there, coupled with the growing pains that may occur with a new starting QB, I don’t see how Hill will be able to return any value on his current draft position.”

– Andrew Ferris (Fantasy Hot Read)

“There’s no way I’m spending a third-round pick on a wideout who received four red-zone targets last year. If that isn’t enough to steer clear of Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs also added Watkins, who is bound to take more than the 63 targets vacated by Albert Wilson. Fewer looks could take away a couple of big plays, which will make the difference between a top-five receiver and boom-or-bust WR2.”

Andrew Gould (FantasyPros)

Brandin Cooks (WR – LAR)

“Cooks enters into a new offense in 2018 replacing WR Sammy Watkins in L.A., who ranked 60th among WRs in targets last season. Cooks owns a flashy history, playing with two of our generation’s best QBs in Drew Brees and Tom Brady. The 24-year-old has totaled at least 1,000+ receiving yards, 7+ TDs and top-15 fantasy WR finishes the previous three NFL seasons, including a WR8 finish in PPR leagues last season. Still, Cooks provides the ability for huge games, but the move from Tom Brady to Jared Goff can’t be done without expecting growing pains and inconsistency in a new and crowded offense. Cooks faces a daunting schedule that will see Patrick Peterson (twice), Richard Sherman (twice), Marshon Lattimore, Casey Hayward, Xavier Rhodes, and Calvin Harris.”

– Tozzi Brothers (Legion Report)

“Past performance doesn’t mean that much when you’re thrown into a jumbled situation like Brandin Cooks is this season in Los Angeles. Jared Goff is the worst quarterback that Cooks has played with, and Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp have already developed a connection with Goff. This is Todd Gurley’s offense, and I don’t think that Cooks finishes as a top-25 wide receiver, much less a top-35 receiver.”

– Matthew Bowe (Razzball)

Josh Gordon (WR – CLE)

“Gordon is an often hyped and rarely relevant wide receiver who has far too much risk to be drafted where he is currently being selected. First, this is a player who has missed 43 of the past 48 games — let that sink in. Second, his offense will be led by either a low-volume QB in Tyrod Taylor or a rookie QB in Baker Mayfield, but we don’t know who. He is currently not in camp and isn’t expected to show up while the team installs a brand new offense. Finally, Gordon might not even be the #1 target on his own team with Jarvis Landry in town. Yes, he’s freakishly talented, but there are way too many obstacles in front of him for him to meet expectations this year.”

– Jason Moore (The Fantasy Footballers)

“Of course I want Josh Gordon to conquer his demons…I just don’t want him on any of my fantasy teams. We talk about players and their floors, but Gordon doesn’t have a floor — his floor is The Eyrie’s ‘Moon Door’ from Game of Thrones. When Gordon went bonkers in 2013, the Browns’ other starting wide receiver was Greg Little, and their leading rusher was Willis McGahee, who was in his final season and ran for 377 yards, averaging 2.7 yards per carry. The 2018 Browns have Jarvis Landry and a good group of RBs — a far cry from the environment that favors another 87-catch season. Chasing high-risk talent that’s been lying dormant for five years is a sucker play.”

– Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl)

Tight End

Jimmy Graham (TE – GB)

“It is no longer 2015, and I do not see enough targets available for him. Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, and Ty Montgomery will be the main receiving targets, which makes Graham a TD-dependent fantasy option. Going as a TE4 in most circles if too rich for me.”

– Ken Zalis (Pressbox)

Greg Olsen (TE – CAR)

“From 2014-2016, Olsen posted three straight seasons with at least 77 catches and 1,008 yards. A broken foot limited Olsen to seven regular season games in 2017, but based on his sixth-round ADP, owners are counting on a return to form in 2018. I would be very hesitant to invest one of my first six picks on an aging tight end (33 years old) coming off of a major injury, in an offense that features one of the game’s top receiving backs and just invested a first-round pick on a wide receiver. Even if Olsen were to return to form, don’t expect the same volume that used to make him one of fantasy’s most reliable tight ends.”

– Matthew Hill (DataForce Fantasy Football)

Thank you to the experts for naming their consensus busts. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice and check out our latest podcast below.



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