After one of the best second weekends of all time, Black Panther will undeniably take first once again, while Fox’s heavily marketed spy thriller Red Sparrow hopes for second place. Also opening is MGM’s Death Wish starring Bruce Willis.

Black Panther (big surprise) topped expectations once again, coming in with about $10M over what it was pinned at on Sunday. It also had the lowest second weekend drop on record for a Marvel Cinematic Universe title, despite the second highest opening of the lot. These numbers suggest a hold of around 38-40% this weekend, suggesting a third outing between $65-$70M. Considering how the last two weekends played out, I’ll take the high on that bet.

Following several months of aggressive marketing, Red Sparrow hopes to score a debut of over $20M this weekend, aided by a wide 3,056 theater debut and a limited IMAX release. Tracking has gone down consistently the past few weeks, however; originally expected to open around $27M, expectations are now more in the $18-$22M range, almost exactly what happened with Atomic Blonde last summer. Blonde, however, opened in 300 more theaters and had better reviews, plus a shorter run time. Sparrow runs nearly 2 hours and 20 minutes, and carries a weak 53% on Rotten Tomatoes. With two R rated titles having just entered the marketplace, an opening of just under $20M seems likely.

The wild card of the weekend is Death Wish, a remake of the Charles Bronson film of the same name. Opening right alongside Red Sparrow and in the shadow of Black Panther is going to make things difficult, but not impossible. Originally scheduled for Thanksgiving of last year, the action title was delayed after Annapurna Pictures bowed out on domestic distribution, leading MGM to reschedule to March. The main problem here is the atrocious critical response, currently sitting at around 8-10% on Rotten Tomatoes, suggesting a debut in the low teens.

Predictions

Black Panther – $68.5M Red Sparrow – $16.5M Death Wish – $12M Game Night – $9M