1. New England Patriots

I’ll be honest. Without Brady and Belichick, this team isn’t a top 5 offence. Their OL held up reasonably well last season and is strong at the Tackle positions, but isn’t quite at the heights of Dallas, Oakland or Tennessee. The Pats have the best TE in football, and Edelman’s chemistry with Brady gets them out of so many jams. I liked what I saw in Malcolm Mitchell last season, and Chris Hogan should do better in year two in New England. Adding Dwayne Allen and Brandin Cooks only strengthen this receiving corps. The versatile RB due of White and Lewis makes it tough for opposing defences too, as they tend to be sent out wide and cause mismatches all over the place. While the loss of Blount might cost them at the goal line, Mike Gillislee led the league in yards per attempt last season, and is more than capable of handling the load, backed up by Rex Burkhead. Seriously, this team is loaded at every skill position, and even if Brady is injured, Garoppolo is the backup. I’m not saying he’s a top 20 QB, but he’s better than some teams’ starters.



2. Tennessee Titans

Assuming Mariota comes back from injury without any problems, this team could be one of the most dynamic offences in the league. The one knock on them currently is the lack of an out-and-out deep threat, but the season hasn’t started yet. But as to what this team does have- the best OL in the league last season (according to Pro Football Focus), one of the best rushing attacks in the two-headed monster that is Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray, a top TE in Delanie Walker, and now Corey Davis and Eric Decker as their top WRs. Decker has been a stud in producing on every team he’s been on (the only WR aside from Mike Evans to contribute over 40% of his team’s receiving TDs in multiple seasons). Davis should be able to develop without being suffocated by opposing defences, as Decker and the other players should draw enough attention. Beyond these two at WR, Titans also have Harry Douglas (serviceable), Rishard Matthews (could be a nice WR3 in this offence), Tajae Sharpe (jury still out on him), and rookie Taywan Taylor (could be a nice slot receiver). Matthews was their best WR last season, so it says a lot for the state of the Titans this season. If they play to their potential, this team has a lot going for it.



3. Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers have one of the deepest WR groups in the league, but need them to stay healthy to succeed. Keenan Allen has had a string of injuries, but has been a huge part of the offence when available, and could become a top 10 WR if he plays a full season. Behind him is Tyrell Williams who had a breakout season last year, as well as Dontrelle Inman and Travis Benjamin (who each had nice seasons in Allen’s absence). The team then added Mike Williams in the draft, and if he can prove himself worthy of a high 1st round draft pick, this team has a really strong, young receiver group. TE is another deep position, as Antonio Gates is backed up by Hunter Henry (who also did really well last season, including filling in for Gates), and then Jeff Cumberland. Sure, Cumberland isn’t the best TE, but a few years ago he was NY Jets’ best TE, and as a TE3 isn’t a terrible choice. Melvin Gordon at RB was excellent last year, although he also missed time with injury. He was much better than his rookie season after the team began using FB Derek Watt to open up holes, and I don’t see Gordon declining this year. Their RB depth isn’t strong, and although they lost Danny Woodhead, he only played in two games last season, so it’s not a substantial loss. Oh, and Philip Rivers is the QB. When he plays at his best, he’s a top 10 QB, and he has heaps of weapons to use. The biggest reason why this team isn’t higher on the list, and why they could fall down the list, is the OL. Two rookies look set to start for the Chargers along the line, and they need to play well immediately in a division filled with quality defences.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are getting a lot of hype for being a team that might rival the Patriots. If everybody stays healthy and on the field, they certainly could. But that’s a huge if, as Big Ben himself hasn’t played in all 16 regular season games since 2014, and neither Bell nor Bryant has done it once since entering the league. Roethlisberger is prone to slumps every now and again (go back and look at the Steelers’ game against Miami last season if you disagree), and needs to be at his peak to truly compete with the Patriots. Bell is easily one of the top three RBs in the league, and might even be the best, but he needs to be available every game for this team to reach its potential. Sure, James Conner has a nice story, but after Bell there is a sharp drop-off at the position, and forcing opponents to stack the box opens up Brown and the other receivers. Speaking of, has anyone actually looked at the Steelers’ depth chart at WR? It’s Brown and Bryant, and then we have rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster, Heyward-Bey, Sammie Coates, Eli Rogers, and Justin Hunter (who is another injury-prone player). None of these players exactly strike fear into my heart, and although they won’t have to be a major contributor, it’s not exactly the best WR corps in the league. If Brown or Bryant misses time, who steps up? TE is also questionable – some people would tell you that Jesse James can handle the load, but he also isn’t in the same tier as Gronk, Delanie Walker, Olsen or Gates. This team has a good OL – when they’re healthy. Gilbert and Pouncey have had their share of injuries, but this OL is a top-5 group in the league when they’re on the field. The Steelers can be a potent offence because of Bell, Brown, Big Ben and the OL, but health concerns and depth are a major concern.

5. Oakland Raiders

People might be surprised that I have the Raiders this low, but if not for their OL this team isn’t even in the conversation. Derek Carr has been improving steadily since entering the league, and we all wish he’d been available in the playoffs last season to see how far the team could have gone. But the OL should be credited with this team’s success – when Donald Penn went down last year, it just added to their troubles with Connor Cook at QB, as they were vulnerable. Giving Carr time to throw was important, as Amari Cooper was still developing into a WR1 and needed that extra step a few times. In fact, I’ve seen people question whether Cooper is truly a WR1, as he tends to go through 2-3 game patches where he doesn’t have a huge impact. I believe he has the skills, and hopefully this season he puts it all together. Oakland has been fortunate enough to have Crabtree to rely on when Cooper has down games, but like Pittsburgh, this WR group lacks depth, and if either Cooper or Crabtree was forced to miss a long stretch, the team would struggle. Seth Roberts has been a decent WR3 for them, but their next best guy is…Cordarelle Patterson? He’s great at returning kicks, but he isn’t a dynamite WR. Adding Jared Cook at TE was a nice move and gives Carr another target with Walford at TE, meaning Oakland aren’t forced into a lot of 3 WR sets. The big offseason addition is Marshawn Lynch, but I remain sceptical- while he will be running behind a great OL, what form will he be in, and what can we expect from him? If he’s got 2011-2014 Beast Mode, this offence doesn’t have a major weakness. If Lynch struggles, can Jalen Richard or DeAndre Washington carry the load? Until we see how this rushing attack will fare, this team is not quite as strong on offence as the ones above it. The ground game is important to giving Carr, Cooper and Crabtree the time and space needed to succeed.



Wild Card: Cincinnati Bengals