It’s the start of June, and it’s the time of the year when you hear so called fantasy experts (intentionally lower case) talk about players that have gotten lucky or unlucky with BABIP.

More often than not, players that have wildly over-performed or under-performed their career BABIP will regress to the mean.

However there are instances when players change their approaches, make adjustments to their swings, and are able to improve their BABIPs.

These instances are few and far between, and, up until now, it’s been difficult to tell when these BABIP variations are a change in true talent or random variation.

This post will look at Pull% (i.e. the percentage of the time a player pulls a ball in play) and why you should want to pay attention to it:

Pull percentage has an inverse correlation to BABIP Pull% has a strong year-to-year correlation, and, as a result, when you see changes in Pull% this may suggest a change in a player’s BABIP ability.

Research

It has long been speculated that players that use the whole field to hit and go the opposite way have better BABIPs, but there hasn’t been any empirical evidence to confirm or deny that this is true.

FanGraphs recently started to publish data provided by Baseball Info Solutions on batted ball location—whether a batted ball was pulled, hit up the middle, or hit to the opposite field—and batted ball strength—classifies batted balls as being hit hard, medium, or soft.

While the data on batted ball strength may provide additional information to explain why some players hit for higher BABIPs than others (the new Statcast data provides a more definitive and exact answer to batted ball strength (it can calculate velocity)), we will focus on batted ball location for now.

To start, we want to see if Pull% has any relationship to BABIP.

I looked at all qualified hitter seasons from 2002 (this is the first year that batted ball location data is available) to 2014 and looked at the correlation between BABIP and Pull%. What I found was a -.259r. This means that there is an inverse relationship between BABIP and Pull% (i.e. as a generalization, the more a player pulls the ball, the lower his BABIP will be).

The graph below groups the same population of players as above into groups by their pull percentage and shows the average BABIP of each group.

After the 54% group, the sample size of players in each Pull% group gets to be an issue—59% and after has no more than two players in each group—but, as long as the sample issue is disclosed, I thought it would be good to leave those groups in for the overall visual.

To build off of the previous graph, the graph below, like the former graph, groups players by their Pull%, but in order to increase the sample size of each population/group, I clustered the players by the percentile rank that their Pull% would put them in (e.g. Aramis Ramirez had a Pull% of 44.1% in 2014, which would put him in the 30th percentile of players for Pull%) and averaged all of the Pull%s for the players in each group.

We can see that there is a clear relationship between BABIP and Pull%, but the fact that there is a .53r year-to-year correlation on Pull% shows that a players batted ball placement is actually a skill and not random variation (i.e. based on their approach, players are more or less likely to pull the ball (e.g. Jose Bautista is a player who completely overhauled his approach (and his career) through the conscious decision to pull the ball and sell out for more power, which can be seen in the numbers as he went from a 35.9 Pull% in 2009 to a 51.2 Pull% in 2010; he also went from 13 to 54 home runs in those same years).

Application

The chart below contains all players that had 100 plate appearances in 2014 and have had 100 plate appearances in 2015. The last two columns (Pull % Diff and BABIP Diff) allow you to sort by the players that have had the largest differences in their BABIP and Pull% from 2014 to 2015. The default sort shows players that have had the biggest increase in their Pull%.

Player Team BABIP (2015) Pull% (2015) BABIP (2014) Pull% (2014) Pull% Diff BABIP Diff Conor Gillaspie White Sox 0.293 54.80% 0.325 39.3% 15.50% -0.032 Todd Frazier Reds 0.25 48.20% 0.309 37.7% 10.50% -0.059 Starling Marte Pirates 0.328 49.20% 0.373 39.0% 10.20% -0.045 Kevin Pillar Blue Jays 0.265 50.60% 0.333 40.5% 10.10% -0.068 David Freese Angels 0.25 44.30% 0.33 34.4% 9.90% -0.08 Adam Lind Brewers 0.321 41.00% 0.369 31.4% 9.60% -0.048 Shin-Soo Choo Rangers 0.284 48.00% 0.308 38.7% 9.30% -0.024 A.J. Pierzynski Braves 0.255 46.40% 0.283 37.7% 8.70% -0.028 Jon Jay Cardinals 0.286 36.30% 0.363 27.8% 8.50% -0.077 Ben Revere Phillies 0.292 38.00% 0.33 29.6% 8.40% -0.038 Giancarlo Stanton Marlins 0.267 50.90% 0.353 42.6% 8.30% -0.086 Justin Turner Dodgers 0.307 37.50% 0.404 29.3% 8.20% -0.097 Joe Mauer Twins 0.329 30.60% 0.342 22.4% 8.20% -0.013 Jose Ramirez Indians 0.211 46.20% 0.297 38.3% 7.90% -0.086 Dustin Ackley Mariners 0.184 45.20% 0.273 37.4% 7.80% -0.089 Kolten Wong Cardinals 0.349 46.10% 0.275 38.6% 7.50% 0.074 Joey Votto Reds 0.315 43.20% 0.299 35.8% 7.40% 0.016 Stephen Vogt Athletics 0.327 46.70% 0.297 39.4% 7.30% 0.03 Rougned Odor Rangers 0.188 46.20% 0.294 38.9% 7.30% -0.106 Daniel Murphy Mets 0.288 41.10% 0.322 33.8% 7.30% -0.034 Gregory Polanco Pirates 0.309 46.40% 0.272 39.2% 7.20% 0.037 Gregor Blanco Giants 0.347 44.70% 0.311 37.5% 7.20% 0.036 Bryce Harper Nationals 0.361 46.10% 0.352 38.9% 7.20% 0.009 Elvis Andrus Rangers 0.272 39.00% 0.305 31.9% 7.10% -0.033 Chris Coghlan Cubs 0.221 46.60% 0.337 39.5% 7.10% -0.116 Eric Campbell Mets 0.212 44.80% 0.348 37.7% 7.10% -0.136 Starlin Castro Cubs 0.318 47.10% 0.337 40.2% 6.90% -0.019 Brian McCann Yankees 0.254 50.80% 0.231 44.1% 6.70% 0.023 Brian Dozier Twins 0.273 60.30% 0.269 53.8% 6.50% 0.004 Brandon Phillips Reds 0.328 38.20% 0.298 31.8% 6.40% 0.03 Yadier Molina Cardinals 0.324 41.30% 0.307 34.9% 6.40% 0.017 Colby Rasmus Astros 0.329 58.30% 0.294 52.3% 6.00% 0.035 Mookie Betts Red Sox 0.262 40.20% 0.327 34.6% 5.60% -0.065 Adrian Gonzalez Dodgers 0.364 43.20% 0.294 37.6% 5.60% 0.07 Austin Jackson Mariners 0.289 38.40% 0.325 32.8% 5.60% -0.036 Casey McGehee Giants 0.238 34.90% 0.335 29.6% 5.30% -0.097 Ryan Howard Phillies 0.292 50.00% 0.288 44.8% 5.20% 0.004 Chris Davis Orioles 0.284 56.00% 0.242 50.9% 5.10% 0.042 Mike Zunino Mariners 0.247 54.30% 0.248 49.3% 5.00% -0.001 Pedro Alvarez Pirates 0.273 41.70% 0.277 36.8% 4.90% -0.004 Dexter Fowler Cubs 0.287 42.30% 0.351 37.8% 4.50% -0.064 Michael Cuddyer Mets 0.325 41.60% 0.351 37.3% 4.30% -0.026 Marwin Gonzalez Astros 0.291 44.60% 0.33 40.7% 3.90% -0.039 Didi Gregorius Yankees 0.243 36.80% 0.257 32.9% 3.90% -0.014 Adam LaRoche White Sox 0.333 46.90% 0.277 43.2% 3.70% 0.056 Robinson Chirinos Rangers 0.227 46.60% 0.265 43.2% 3.40% -0.038 Joe Panik Giants 0.329 35.80% 0.343 32.4% 3.40% -0.014 Zack Cozart Reds 0.276 50.80% 0.255 47.5% 3.30% 0.021 Robinson Cano Mariners 0.297 37.80% 0.335 34.5% 3.30% -0.038 Martin Maldonado Brewers 0.19 45.10% 0.293 41.8% 3.30% -0.103 Yoenis Cespedes Tigers 0.338 48.30% 0.293 45.1% 3.20% 0.045 Brandon Moss Indians 0.257 48.60% 0.283 45.4% 3.20% -0.026 Steve Pearce Orioles 0.2 56.80% 0.322 53.6% 3.20% -0.122 Omar Infante Royals 0.271 46.60% 0.275 43.9% 2.70% -0.004 Mark Teixeira Yankees 0.192 58.20% 0.233 55.5% 2.70% -0.041 Gerardo Parra Brewers 0.363 38.70% 0.306 36.2% 2.50% 0.057 Adeiny Hechavarria Marlins 0.351 28.70% 0.323 26.3% 2.40% 0.028 Andrelton Simmons Braves 0.274 40.70% 0.263 38.4% 2.30% 0.011 Corey Dickerson Rockies 0.363 34.10% 0.356 31.9% 2.20% 0.007 Asdrubal Cabrera Rays 0.274 50.40% 0.272 48.5% 1.90% 0.002 Mitch Moreland Rangers 0.333 39.30% 0.315 37.5% 1.80% 0.018 Michael Morse Marlins 0.287 34.80% 0.348 33.0% 1.80% -0.061 Brad Miller Mariners 0.265 41.30% 0.268 39.6% 1.70% -0.003 Dustin Pedroia Red Sox 0.309 44.10% 0.307 42.5% 1.60% 0.002 Miguel Cabrera Tigers 0.364 39.30% 0.346 37.8% 1.50% 0.018 Michael Bourn Indians 0.319 37.90% 0.337 36.4% 1.50% -0.018 Logan Forsythe Rays 0.326 38.70% 0.268 37.3% 1.40% 0.058 Justin Upton Padres 0.353 38.90% 0.332 37.5% 1.40% 0.021 Adam Jones Orioles 0.321 44.40% 0.311 43.1% 1.30% 0.01 Troy Tulowitzki Rockies 0.342 50.00% 0.355 48.7% 1.30% -0.013 Billy Butler Athletics 0.29 38.00% 0.31 36.7% 1.30% -0.02 Christian Yelich Marlins 0.286 29.10% 0.356 27.8% 1.30% -0.07 Charlie Blackmon Rockies 0.306 42.40% 0.315 41.2% 1.20% -0.009 Eduardo Escobar Twins 0.302 41.40% 0.336 40.2% 1.20% -0.034 Yasmani Grandal Dodgers 0.338 35.80% 0.277 34.7% 1.10% 0.061 Chris Owings Diamondbacks 0.308 34.20% 0.314 33.2% 1.00% -0.006 Sam Fuld Athletics 0.231 45.90% 0.28 44.9% 1.00% -0.049 Travis Snider Orioles 0.37 39.20% 0.298 38.3% 0.90% 0.072 Anthony Rizzo Cubs 0.324 45.50% 0.311 44.7% 0.80% 0.013 Michael Brantley Indians 0.308 43.30% 0.333 42.5% 0.80% -0.025 Chase Utley Phillies 0.197 44.60% 0.295 43.9% 0.70% -0.098 Marcus Semien Athletics 0.336 44.20% 0.31 43.6% 0.60% 0.026 Brandon Guyer Rays 0.329 44.30% 0.322 43.7% 0.60% 0.007 Jacoby Ellsbury Yankees 0.379 38.40% 0.296 38.0% 0.40% 0.083 Justin Morneau Rockies 0.299 32.20% 0.33 31.8% 0.40% -0.031 Ichiro Suzuki Marlins 0.31 24.80% 0.346 24.4% 0.40% -0.036 Alexi Amarista Padres 0.219 30.60% 0.271 30.3% 0.30% -0.052 Alex Gordon Royals 0.306 46.50% 0.31 46.3% 0.20% -0.004 Alberto Callaspo - - - 0.212 38.00% 0.242 37.8% 0.20% -0.03 Adam Eaton White Sox 0.28 29.70% 0.359 29.5% 0.20% -0.079 Grady Sizemore Phillies 0.32 41.30% 0.285 41.2% 0.10% 0.035 David DeJesus Rays 0.361 44.60% 0.28 44.6% 0.00% 0.081 Matt Carpenter Cardinals 0.354 31.90% 0.318 31.9% 0.00% 0.036 Pablo Sandoval Red Sox 0.286 32.80% 0.3 32.8% 0.00% -0.014 Nick Markakis Braves 0.361 31.30% 0.299 31.4% -0.10% 0.062 Jason Castro Astros 0.261 41.90% 0.294 42.1% -0.20% -0.033 Dee Gordon Marlins 0.435 29.20% 0.346 29.5% -0.30% 0.089 Kevin Kiermaier Rays 0.248 45.00% 0.306 45.3% -0.30% -0.058 Ian Desmond Nationals 0.341 36.20% 0.326 36.6% -0.40% 0.015 Mark Trumbo Diamondbacks 0.288 33.60% 0.274 34.0% -0.40% 0.014 Matt Adams Cardinals 0.292 42.70% 0.338 43.1% -0.40% -0.046 Jayson Werth Nationals 0.244 35.00% 0.343 35.4% -0.40% -0.099 Freddie Freeman Braves 0.359 42.30% 0.351 42.8% -0.50% 0.008 Trevor Plouffe Twins 0.306 39.10% 0.299 39.7% -0.60% 0.007 Eric Hosmer Royals 0.345 36.10% 0.312 36.8% -0.70% 0.033 Martin Prado Marlins 0.305 32.10% 0.31 32.8% -0.70% -0.005 Mike Trout Angels 0.331 36.20% 0.349 36.9% -0.70% -0.018 Chris Iannetta Angels 0.211 43.20% 0.329 44.1% -0.90% -0.118 Ryan Goins Blue Jays 0.299 38.00% 0.237 39.0% -1.00% 0.062 Carlos Gomez Brewers 0.297 42.70% 0.339 43.7% -1.00% -0.042 Yangervis Solarte Padres 0.293 44.40% 0.275 45.5% -1.10% 0.018 Jose Altuve Astros 0.313 40.70% 0.36 41.8% -1.10% -0.047 Marcell Ozuna Marlins 0.328 35.80% 0.337 37.0% -1.20% -0.009 Adrian Beltre Rangers 0.259 37.80% 0.345 39.0% -1.20% -0.086 Chase Headley Yankees 0.287 47.40% 0.301 48.7% -1.30% -0.014 Tuffy Gosewisch Diamondbacks 0.248 34.90% 0.269 36.2% -1.30% -0.021 David Murphy Indians 0.311 38.30% 0.285 39.7% -1.40% 0.026 Jose Abreu White Sox 0.319 38.50% 0.356 39.9% -1.40% -0.037 Evan Longoria Rays 0.328 43.20% 0.285 44.7% -1.50% 0.043 Prince Fielder Rangers 0.38 34.10% 0.274 35.7% -1.60% 0.106 Nori Aoki Giants 0.339 28.30% 0.314 29.9% -1.60% 0.025 Kendrys Morales Royals 0.338 40.90% 0.244 42.6% -1.70% 0.094 Erick Aybar Angels 0.322 41.30% 0.297 43.0% -1.70% 0.025 Lorenzo Cain Royals 0.364 35.60% 0.38 37.3% -1.70% -0.016 Nick Castellanos Tigers 0.297 37.10% 0.326 38.8% -1.70% -0.029 Wil Myers Padres 0.33 47.20% 0.286 49.0% -1.80% 0.044 Nolan Arenado Rockies 0.274 43.50% 0.294 45.3% -1.80% -0.02 Derek Norris Padres 0.341 46.30% 0.324 48.2% -1.90% 0.017 Cameron Maybin Braves 0.303 35.80% 0.297 37.8% -2.00% 0.006 J.D. Martinez Tigers 0.325 42.90% 0.389 44.9% -2.00% -0.064 Torii Hunter Twins 0.305 37.70% 0.311 39.8% -2.10% -0.006 Jimmy Rollins Dodgers 0.225 52.40% 0.269 54.5% -2.10% -0.044 James Loney Rays 0.286 33.00% 0.319 35.2% -2.20% -0.033 Ryan Braun Brewers 0.276 32.80% 0.304 35.1% -2.30% -0.028 Lonnie Chisenhall Indians 0.222 37.10% 0.328 39.4% -2.30% -0.106 Ender Inciarte Diamondbacks 0.325 32.50% 0.31 35.0% -2.50% 0.015 Billy Hamilton Reds 0.248 27.80% 0.304 30.3% -2.50% -0.056 Leonys Martin Rangers 0.254 39.80% 0.336 42.3% -2.50% -0.082 Andre Ethier Dodgers 0.33 36.90% 0.307 39.4% -2.50% 0.023 Matt Joyce Angels 0.214 41.50% 0.316 44.0% -2.50% -0.102 Eric Sogard Athletics 0.31 36.60% 0.251 39.2% -2.60% 0.059 Jake Marisnick Astros 0.337 38.20% 0.338 40.9% -2.70% -0.001 Yunel Escobar Nationals 0.354 37.60% 0.282 40.3% -2.70% 0.072 Josh Reddick Athletics 0.299 36.80% 0.289 39.9% -3.10% 0.01 Chris Young Yankees 0.25 51.20% 0.247 54.4% -3.20% 0.003 Stephen Drew Yankees 0.165 48.80% 0.194 52.0% -3.20% -0.029 Wilson Ramos Nationals 0.309 32.50% 0.29 35.9% -3.40% 0.019 Jason Heyward Cardinals 0.273 36.80% 0.308 40.2% -3.40% -0.035 Brandon Crawford Giants 0.352 35.10% 0.307 38.8% -3.70% 0.045 Will Middlebrooks Padres 0.272 37.50% 0.273 41.4% -3.90% -0.001 Kyle Seager Mariners 0.269 45.50% 0.296 49.4% -3.90% -0.027 Hanley Ramirez Red Sox 0.248 39.30% 0.323 43.2% -3.90% -0.075 Matt Kemp Padres 0.313 39.70% 0.345 43.8% -4.10% -0.032 Carlos Gonzalez Rockies 0.243 36.70% 0.283 40.8% -4.10% -0.04 Curtis Granderson Mets 0.279 50.80% 0.265 54.9% -4.10% 0.014 Jay Bruce Reds 0.262 44.70% 0.269 48.9% -4.20% -0.007 Jordy Mercer Pirates 0.219 37.70% 0.285 41.9% -4.20% -0.066 Marlon Byrd Reds 0.21 40.90% 0.341 45.2% -4.30% -0.131 Avisail Garcia White Sox 0.411 33.30% 0.285 37.7% -4.40% 0.126 Russell Martin Blue Jays 0.315 39.10% 0.336 43.5% -4.40% -0.021 David Ortiz Red Sox 0.227 41.80% 0.256 46.2% -4.40% -0.029 DJ LeMahieu Rockies 0.387 23.60% 0.322 28.1% -4.50% 0.065 Aaron Hill Diamondbacks 0.276 38.90% 0.276 43.8% -4.90% 0 Jose Bautista Blue Jays 0.245 45.10% 0.287 50.0% -4.90% -0.042 Brett Lawrie Athletics 0.355 32.30% 0.26 37.3% -5.00% 0.095 Neil Walker Pirates 0.312 37.60% 0.288 42.6% -5.00% 0.024 Anthony Gose Tigers 0.452 35.90% 0.317 41.2% -5.30% 0.135 Manny Machado Orioles 0.301 35.70% 0.317 41.1% -5.40% -0.016 Josh Donaldson Blue Jays 0.326 34.60% 0.278 40.0% -5.40% 0.048 Kole Calhoun Angels 0.338 37.70% 0.313 43.3% -5.60% 0.025 Melky Cabrera White Sox 0.259 33.50% 0.316 39.2% -5.70% -0.057 Paul Goldschmidt Diamondbacks 0.393 33.30% 0.368 39.1% -5.80% 0.025 Jean Segura Brewers 0.296 27.90% 0.275 33.7% -5.80% 0.021 Denard Span Nationals 0.325 32.50% 0.33 38.3% -5.80% -0.005 Juan Lagares Mets 0.312 25.90% 0.341 31.7% -5.80% -0.029 Nelson Cruz Mariners 0.387 37.20% 0.288 43.1% -5.90% 0.099 Alexei Ramirez White Sox 0.258 42.50% 0.292 48.4% -5.90% -0.034 Jedd Gyorko Padres 0.276 35.90% 0.253 41.9% -6.00% 0.023 Luis Valbuena Astros 0.189 41.70% 0.294 47.7% -6.00% -0.105 Nick Hundley Rockies 0.372 36.40% 0.309 42.5% -6.10% 0.063 Angel Pagan Giants 0.365 28.90% 0.339 35.0% -6.10% 0.026 Logan Morrison Mariners 0.25 36.60% 0.287 43.0% -6.40% -0.037 Mark Reynolds Cardinals 0.359 41.80% 0.218 48.3% -6.50% 0.141 Cody Asche Phillies 0.329 42.30% 0.315 48.8% -6.50% 0.014 Brett Gardner Yankees 0.341 33.60% 0.305 40.2% -6.60% 0.036 Alejandro De Aza Orioles 0.288 39.10% 0.317 46.2% -7.10% -0.029 Edwin Encarnacion Blue Jays 0.225 48.20% 0.26 55.3% -7.10% -0.035 Howie Kendrick Dodgers 0.34 24.80% 0.347 32.0% -7.20% -0.007 Danny Santana Twins 0.322 33.90% 0.405 41.3% -7.40% -0.083 Matt Holliday Cardinals 0.387 26.20% 0.298 33.6% -7.40% 0.089 Tyler Flowers White Sox 0.281 39.40% 0.355 46.8% -7.40% -0.074 Jason Kipnis Indians 0.382 32.00% 0.288 39.5% -7.50% 0.094 Salvador Perez Royals 0.304 38.90% 0.278 46.4% -7.50% 0.026 Albert Pujols Angels 0.236 43.50% 0.265 51.0% -7.50% -0.029 Rene Rivera Rays 0.196 38.50% 0.301 46.2% -7.70% -0.105 Ryan Zimmerman Nationals 0.245 29.00% 0.313 37.0% -8.00% -0.068 Jhonny Peralta Cardinals 0.35 40.10% 0.292 48.2% -8.10% 0.058 Lucas Duda Mets 0.361 35.90% 0.283 44.1% -8.20% 0.078 Francisco Cervelli Pirates 0.406 32.70% 0.408 41.0% -8.30% -0.002 Khris Davis Brewers 0.311 35.20% 0.275 43.6% -8.40% 0.036 David Peralta Diamondbacks 0.286 37.50% 0.328 46.3% -8.80% -0.042 Buster Posey Giants 0.295 32.50% 0.319 41.4% -8.90% -0.024 Mike Napoli Red Sox 0.229 33.60% 0.321 42.5% -8.90% -0.092 Yonder Alonso Padres 0.378 34.70% 0.251 44.0% -9.30% 0.127 Andrew McCutchen Pirates 0.281 34.90% 0.355 44.2% -9.30% -0.074 Aramis Ramirez Brewers 0.226 34.80% 0.31 44.1% -9.30% -0.084 Chris Carter Astros 0.256 39.20% 0.267 48.6% -9.40% -0.011 Carlos Beltran Yankees 0.276 42.10% 0.252 51.5% -9.40% 0.024 Caleb Joseph Orioles 0.303 38.70% 0.246 48.4% -9.70% 0.057 Carlos Santana Indians 0.233 50.80% 0.249 60.5% -9.70% -0.016 Freddy Galvis Phillies 0.34 28.80% 0.198 38.9% -10.10% 0.142 Evan Gattis Astros 0.235 38.00% 0.298 48.2% -10.20% -0.063 Kennys Vargas Twins 0.319 34.70% 0.34 44.9% -10.20% -0.021 Brandon Belt Giants 0.392 38.00% 0.288 48.3% -10.30% 0.104 Alcides Escobar Royals 0.301 31.50% 0.326 42.3% -10.80% -0.025 Danny Espinosa Nationals 0.294 43.50% 0.319 54.3% -10.80% -0.025 Brayan Pena Reds 0.327 30.40% 0.273 41.3% -10.90% 0.054 A.J. Pollock Diamondbacks 0.362 30.80% 0.344 41.8% -11.00% 0.018 Miguel Montero Cubs 0.3 28.20% 0.275 39.2% -11.00% 0.025 Brock Holt Red Sox 0.368 32.10% 0.349 44.3% -12.20% 0.019 George Springer Astros 0.283 30.80% 0.294 43.2% -12.40% -0.011 Ian Kinsler Tigers 0.315 35.80% 0.288 48.3% -12.50% 0.027 Kurt Suzuki Twins 0.257 31.90% 0.31 44.4% -12.50% -0.053 Rajai Davis Tigers 0.318 26.70% 0.32 39.4% -12.70% -0.002 Victor Martinez Tigers 0.23 37.60% 0.316 50.3% -12.70% -0.086 Josh Harrison Pirates 0.29 32.50% 0.353 45.4% -12.90% -0.063 Wilmer Flores Mets 0.234 32.10% 0.265 45.2% -13.10% -0.031 Seth Smith Mariners 0.309 32.30% 0.305 46.4% -14.10% 0.004 Mike Moustakas Royals 0.342 35.90% 0.22 50.5% -14.60% 0.122 Carlos Ruiz Phillies 0.304 30.40% 0.281 45.9% -15.50% 0.023 Xander Bogaerts Red Sox 0.296 30.90% 0.296 46.9% -16.00% 0 Ike Davis Athletics 0.314 21.60% 0.265 38.5% -16.90% 0.049 Delmon Young Orioles 0.344 29.20% 0.359 46.6% -17.40% -0.015 C.J. Cron Angels 0.253 29.00% 0.3 46.4% -17.40% -0.047

Out of the 20 players that have had the biggest increase in Pull%, 17 of those players have seen a loss in BABIP.

What this means is that if you depended on any of these players for their AVG when you drafted them, there may be reason to believe that the decrease in their AVG may be more than random variation and is actually a sign that the batter has changed their approach, pitchers have started to throw to them differently, and/or has happened because of an occurrence unknown at the present time.

Pull% allows one to be able to explain a measurable affect in the variance of BABIP from player-to-player, but there are other variables that need to be controlled for in order to produce a more holistic number for an expected BABIP. Jeff Zimmerman came up with an expected BABIP last July, which is able to predict future BABIP better than present BABIP.

My instincts tell me that his research, coupled with the research in this article and new data provided by Statcast, may be able to drive an even higher level of success.