These estimates were updated on May 14, 2020. See the updated estimates.

Since the economic fallout of the coronavirus shock began in early March, the number of workers laid-off or furloughed—as measured by new claims for unemployment insurance (UI)—has skyrocketed. We have used data from states that track UI claims by industry to get a rough estimate of how many workers are at high risk of losing their employer-provided health insurance (EPHI) over this as well.

The methodology is described in this blog post, and the underlying data (which has begun to include more and more states tracking UI claims by industry) can be found here. Table 1 below shows UI claims by industry across states that collect this data, and also shows employer-provided health insurance (EPHI) coverage rates in those industries in 2018. As of April 30, just under 28 million workers had been laid off or furloughed since early March. We find that this translates into likely EPHI losses of 12.7 million.

Because the United States is unique among rich countries in tying health insurance benefits to employment, many of the newly unemployed will suddenly face prohibitively costly insurance options. A comprehensive policy solution would be to extend Medicare and Medicaid to all those suffering job losses during the pandemic period, with the federal government funding this expansion. It has been proposed that the federal government pay for all of COBRA coverage so that workers who are laid off or furloughed may continue their employer-provided coverage. While this policy proposal will help many workers continue coverage, in some states it will not help workers from small businesses with fewer than 20 employees, who are not eligible for COBRA.

The linkage between specific jobs and the availability of health insurance is a prime source of inefficiency and inequity in the U.S. health system. It is especially terrifying for workers to lose their health insurance as a result of, and during, an ongoing pandemic.

Table 1 New UI claims and employer-provided health insurance (EPHI) losses between March 15 and April 25, by industry Industry Total job losses (UI initial claims) Share of workers with EPHI EPHI job losses Total job losses as a share of industry employment Accommodation and Food Services 5,999,148 23.9% 1,431,437 41.5% Admin. and Support, Waste Mgmt. and Remediation Services 2,299,425 39.1% 899,754 24.1% Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting 78,616 29.4% 23,091 5.7% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1,051,318 37.4% 393,401 36.0% Construction 1,625,317 44.5% 722,736 20.8% Educational Services 605,876 61.6% 373,250 5.3% Finance and Insurance 192,162 70.5% 135,473 3.1% Health Care and Social Assistance 3,461,061 56.8% 1,965,556 15.5% Information 404,133 61.9% 250,033 13.4% Management of Companies and Enterprises 223,750 63.6% 142,345 9.2% Manufacturing 3,046,647 69.3% 2,112,061 23.5% Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 103,358 74.7% 77,162 15.2% Other Services (except Public Administration) 1,574,097 33.3% 524,961 34.0% Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 1,019,746 61.0% 622,080 10.5% Public Administration 210,111 70.4% 147,978 2.7% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 399,429 46.5% 185,804 16.9% Retail Trade 3,693,112 40.8% 1,506,250 23.6% Transportation and Warehousing 984,792 58.5% 575,847 15.5% Utilities 13,176 77.1% 10,160 1.6% Wholesale Trade 898,072 61.5% 552,042 15.1% All industries 27,883,344 45.4% 12,651,422 18.8% Source: Authors’ analysis of state-level UI claims, U.S. Department of Labor UI Claims, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, and the 2018 Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey. Share on Facebook Tweet this chart Embed Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. Download image

We additionally allocate EPHI losses across states, taking account of each states’ industry mix (again, the precise methodology for this calculation can be found here). The map below shows these losses allocated across states.