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Global emissions from the energy sector were 32.1 billion tonnes in 2016, the same as the previous two years, while the economy grew 3.1 per cent, the agency says.

The IEA put the halt in growth down to growing renewable power generation, switches from coal to natural gas and improvements in energy efficiency.

The biggest drop was seen in the US, where carbon dioxide emissions fell 3 per cent, while the economy grew 1.6 per cent, following a surge in shale gas supplies and more renewable power that displaced coal.


US emissions are at their lowest level since 1992, while the economy has grown 80 per cent since that time.

Carbon dioxide output also declined in China, by 1 per cent, and were stable in Europe, offsetting increases in most of the rest of the world, the IEA says.

Emerging trend

“These three years of flat emissions in a growing global economy signal an emerging trend and that is certainly a cause for optimism, even if it is too soon to say that global emissions have definitely peaked,” says Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director.

“They are also a sign that market dynamics and technological improvements matter,” Birol says. “This is especially true in the United States, where abundant shale gas supplies have become a cheap power source.”

In China, coal demand declined as renewables, nuclear and natural gas increased in the power sector.

There was also a switch from coal to gas in industry and buildings driven by government policies to tackle air pollution.

Emissions in the EU were largely stable as gas demand grew 8 per cent and coal fell by 10 per cent.

The UK saw a significant coal-to-gas switch in the power sector in the face of cheaper gas and a carbon price floor which makes polluting coal a more expensive source of energy, the IEA says.

But the IEA also warns that the welcome pause in emissions growth is not enough to meet globally-agreed targets to limit temperature rises to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels — considered to be the threshold for dangerous climate change. Overall, the levels of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere are still rising to record new levels.

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