Hey there, time traveller!

This article was published 3/5/2012 (3071 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

THE Bank of Montreal is the latest forecaster to predict Manitoba will be one of the country's top economic performers in 2012.

BMO joins the Royal Bank of Canada and the Conference Board of Canada in predicting that Manitoba will churn out one of the top three economic performances in the country this year.

In its latest Provincial Monitor report issued on Thursday, BMO Capital markets predicts the Manitoba economy will grow by 2.6 per cent this year. The only provinces it expects will do better are Alberta and Saskatchewan, at 3.4 per cent and 2.9 per cent respectively, while British Columbia will finish a little behind Manitoba at 2.3 per cent.

The Conference Board's latest forecast was for 2.7 per cent growth this year for Manitoba, which it predicted would be second-best in the country. The Royal Bank's was even rosier, calling for 3.4 per cent, behind only Saskatchewan (4.6 per cent) and Alberta (3.9 per cent).

BMO said Manitoba's construction, manufacturing, agriculture, and energy and mines sectors are all expected to contribute to this year's growth spurt.

"Assuming the weather co-operates, the farm sector should bounce back in 2012 from depressed levels seen last year," said BMO Capital Markets economist Robert Kavcic. "Manufacturing continues to recover from the recession, with shipments of machinery and transportation equipment seeing solid growth in recent months."

The bank said high commodity prices should also keep the energy and mining sector humming in 2012.

"Oil production has risen sharply in recent years, with output jumping more than 20 per cent in 2011 to the highest level on record," Kavcic noted. "Oil now accounts for about 45 per cent of real mining output, up from 20 per cent in 2004. Energy exports were up nearly 30 per cent, year-over-year, in the last three months."

He said job growth also remains steady, with private-sector employment up 2.3 per cent in the first quarter of the year.

"Persistent strength in construction and in the broad service sector have smoothed out overall labour market performance, and kept the jobless rate near the lowest in Canada, at 5.3 per cent in March."

The BMO report said Manitoba's economy should outperform the Canadian economy this year, which it expects to grow by two per cent.

It also forecasts another strong performance next year for Manitoba, with growth of 2.5 per cent -- the same as the national economy. But it predicts four other provinces will do even better: Newfoundland and Labrador (3.5 per cent), Alberta (3.3), Saskatchewan (3.1) and British Columbia (2.7).

The latest BMO forecast serves as a stark reminder that Canada has an entrenched two-speed economy, with the resources-rich four western provinces all expected to post growth of more than two per cent and the six eastern provinces all expected to record less than what the Bank of Canada considers the potential growth rate for the Canadian economy.

The bank also predicts the west will lead the nation in growth in 2013, although oil-rich Newfoundland also will be joining that select group.

BMO economist Douglas Porter says resources are the major reason for the superior prospects of the western provinces.

murray.mcneill@freepress.mb.ca

-- with files from The Canadian Press