Taiwan will decide in January on whether to re-elect its president. Regardless of its decision, however, the country will likely have a new vice president—and it is anyone’s guess who that person might be.

Vice President Chen Chien-jen (陳建仁) announced via Facebook on March 29 that he would not seek a second term, stating that by the end of his term he would have “accomplished his mission.” Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), at the time facing a

brutal and unexpected primary challenge

from her ex-Premier William Lai (賴清德), raised no objection to the announcement.

As soon as Lai decided to seek the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential nomination in March, intense pressure was applied to Lai from within the party to form a unifying Tsai-Lai ticket, with Lai as the vice presidential candidate. Lai was having none of it. At the time, he was ahead in the polls and fully expected to win the primary, which was then scheduled to be just around the corner—leaving Tsai no time to mount a proper campaign.

In the end, Lai was outfoxed. The DPP brass enacted a series of delays to the primary, giving the formidable president time to regroup and counterattack. Tsai won, vanquishing Lai by a margin of 8.2%. While Tsai may have prevailed, Lai’s run did damage party unity and exposed significant opposition to Tsai within the party. Lai accepted defeat and called for the party to unite in support of Tsai, but the damage was done.

Tsai and the DPP are now focused on seeing off their challengers in January 2020’s presidential and legislative elections. The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is running Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜), who is running on a feel-good, Republic of China (ROC) flag-draped, “get rich quick” prosperity-for-all campaign strong on slogans and campaign extravaganza, but vague on substance and dogged by doubts and suspicions regarding his character and abilities.

Waiting in the wings are two potentially powerful candidates, one of whom will likely run: Independent Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) and billionaire Foxconn founder Terry Gou (郭台銘). (Ko has stated he would support a run by Gou, so it’s highly unlikely that both will run.)

So who will Tsai pick as her running mate? She’s not likely to make that decision too soon in order to see what the final lineup of opponents is going to be, but we can be sure it is being thought through already.

While the list of potential candidates is endless, there are a few generalities we can probably make. One is that she is likely to pick a man as her running mate. This is a shame, in almost every way, as ex-Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊) would make an excellent choice. She is one of the best and most beloved politicians in Taiwan’s history, a powerful campaigner, sports a heroic record as a democracy pioneer, and spent 12 years as Han’s predecessor as Kaohsiung mayor.

Tsai is cautious and pragmatic. The most vocal proponents of the Lai primary revolt were almost uniformly older men. She is likely to calculate that, while the nation has elected both a female vice president and a female president, putting both on the same ticket would be a step the country isn’t ready for yet. As unfair as that is to Chen, Tsai’s priority is the defense of Taiwan’s sovereignty and defeating the far more Beijing-friendly Han Kuo-yu. Chen herself would probably agree.

Another generality that can probably be made is that some good candidates are probably better off left where they are. Tsai and the DPP are likely scarred by the experience of plucking Chen Chu out of office to serve as a presidential advisor before she finished her mayoral term, no doubt based on the assumption that it would be impossible for the KMT to win Kaohsiung. That was a huge mistake, as Han stormed to an unlikely victory in last November’s mayoral race, ending the DPP’s longtime dominance of the city’s politics. That experience makes it much less likely she will pick popular Taoyuan mayor Cheng Wen-tsan (鄭文燦).

This also applies to the very top people in her administration, making candidates like Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) and Foreign Minister Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) somewhat risky. Both would make strong candidates to be sure, so ruling them out would be premature. Su has kept a respectable favorability rating in a tough job. As a big plus, Su would help win some of Lai’s supporters, but one downside is that he is 72 years old.

Wu has been making waves overseas with his sharp and witty comments on Twitter and is a darling of those who support strong Taiwan sovereignty in the face of threats emanating out of Beijing. Wu is 64 years old and might be interested in the vice presidency as something of a step up the ladder. He could be useful to the president in that role by handling much of the diplomatic side of the presidency. However, Tsai is an accomplished diplomat, so he doesn’t provide a useful counterbalance of skills. Keeping both of these two where they are would help with continuity in power if she wins, and competence in key positions while she is distracted campaigning is a big bonus.

The simplest choice would be to simply try to keep current Vice President Chen Chien-jen (陳建仁) on. He humbly stepped aside previously to leave a path open for a Tsai-Lai ticket to heal the rift during the primary, but the primary is now over. Such loyalty and devotion is commendable. Politically, no one seems to dislike him. He is an accomplished medical professional and, as a devout Catholic, has received several awards from the Vatican. Those Vatican ties are possibly helpful, as the Holy See recognizes Taiwan diplomatically.

Unfortunately, while no one seems to seriously dislike him, his low key profile makes him easily forgettable. Few know who he is or can remember his name. Two of his advantages in the last election aren’t so helpful this time around. The apparent fad for electing medical professionals was so very mid-2010s, and seems to have passed: Populist business types seems to be the “it” thing now. He’s also not a party member, so he heals no rifts, builds no new bridges post-primary inside the party and is not a potential leader going forward. Chen is a safe bet, but he adds little to the ticket.

The choice of the party unity enthusiasts would be William Lai. Lai has already ruled out the option on many occasions, and he has already held the more powerful post of premier, making it something of a demotion. It is also questionable as to whether Tsai would want him back on the team, as he has already broken faith by running against her in the primary. However, in terms of party unity, it would be a strong choice. Lai has stronger support with more conservative and older voters than Tsai does, so the case for a Tsai-Lai ticket extends beyond unifying the DPP. It is possible Lai might consider the post to help restore the damage and ill will he generated by, to many in the party, “betraying” Tsai, and it could help restore some of the luster to his previous standing as presumed heir apparent. Lai has recently met with people associated with the founding of two new pro-independence parties. That could simply be keeping up relationships for the future—or for something more short term. He could use those contacts to shore up Tsai, or to make a run at the presidency outside the DPP. That seems unlikely, but it may be worth watching out for.

Another party unity choice to try and win back those who backed Lai would be one of the older, pro-Taiwan independence types. Ex-Premier Yu Shyi-kun (游錫堃) is just such a heavyweight with solid credentials. The problem with Yu, however, is while he would no doubt appeal to some of Lai’s supporters, there is a very good chance he would be a liability with the general voting public. He is very much tied in people’s minds with ex-President Chen Shui-bian, who remains controversial following his conviction for corruption. Yu, himself, has fallen under suspicion of corruption. Tsai isn’t likely to want to revive this unpleasant bit of party history. He’s also 71 years old.

Both Han and Gou have campaigned on the economy, with both touting business acumen. Picking a veep with credentials on this front could help win over economic issues voters. The tricky part is finding a good candidate.

Morris Chang (張忠謀), founder of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), would be a strong choice on the business side—but he is effectively disqualified as he is an American citizen, is 88 years old, was born in China and does not appear to be particularly political. On Wednesday, a TSMC source dismissed a report that KMT leaders want Chang to join Han Kuo-yu’s ticket, saying an alliance with Han was unlikely as Chang stays out of politics.

Shi Wen-long (許文龍), founder of the plastics producer Chi Mei, is known to be a supporter of Taiwan independence causes, so choosing him would be politically appropriate—but at 91 years old, he would be a hard sell.

Other candidates may be out there, but the giants of Taiwanese industry and business for the most part are over 70 years old and tend to lean towards the KMT.

Common choices in the past have been to pick an academic or someone from the military. An economist might be useful, or a general to underscore the importance of maintaining sovereignty. Both options are quite possible, but few potential candidates are both pro-DPP and have widespread name recognition.

Tsai may not just be thinking in terms of this election, but also of her legacy. While the vice presidency is a bit of a demotion for an ex-premier, it does open up opportunities for players a bit lower on the totem pole to gain visibility and recognition. Two strong candidates come to mind: Transport Minister Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) and Vice Premier Chen Chi-mai (陳其邁).

These two options at first would seem counterintuitive, as Lin was ousted as mayor of Taichung and Chen as mayor of Kaohsiung in last November’s local elections—both humiliating defeats to KMT opponents. Both, however, were ousted at the peak of a populist wave that has peaked in both cities: If elections were held again now, polls indicate that both would likely win. The nerdy, technocratic style of both in retrospect seems more appealing as the approval rating of new Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen has dropped to second last of all cities and counties, according to a recent poll. While Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu’s approval was high in the same poll, his disapproval rating was also high, at fourth from the top.

The 55-year-old Lin is probably the more polished of the two, and as a top dog in the Taiwan Normal Country Promotion Association (TNCPA, 正國會) faction of the party, he might be an acceptable choice to some of the old pro-independence types who support people like Yu Shyi-kun. Nominating Chen, aged 54, as vice president would be an open rebuke to Han Kuo-yu—a statement that the DPP supports a competent, if nerdy, candidate over Han’s erratic style of governance.

As the campaign gets rockier for Han over his behavior (even within his party), this latter approach may appeal more to voters than last November. Both are veterans of the Wild Lily student movement that was instrumental in bringing democracy to Taiwan. Both are experienced, and could be useful in helping the president manage domestic issues. Tsai has not yet started campaigning against Han in earnest, but her vice presidential choice may be one of many arrows in her quiver.

(Feature photo from Taiwan Presidential Office on Flickr, CC BY 2.0)