Now back for its sixth season, The Prospect Digest Handbook

has become a mainstay for baseball enthusiasts, minor league aficionados, and championship fantasy general managers. Touted by some of the titans of the fantasy world for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” last season’s Prospect Digest Handbook correctly predicted the meteoric rise of Deivi Garcia, Dylan Cease, Jesus Luzardo, Bryse Wilson, Brusdar Graterol, Chris Paddack, and many more! Pick up your print version here and your eBook version here !

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1. Taylor Widener, RHP

FB SL CH Control Overall 60 60 55 55 65

Background: Fun Fact Part I: Among all arms with at least 100 innings pitched last season, Widener paced the Southern League in strikeout percentage (31.9%). Fun Fact Part II: Since 2006 there have been 390 instances in which a pitcher has reached the 100-inning threshold in the Southern League; Widener’s strikeout percentage, 31.9%, trails only Matt Moore’s 32.8% mark. Fun Fact Part III: Here’s a list of the pitchers that posted the top four strikeout percentages in the Southern League since 2006 – Matt Moore, Taylor Widener, Michael Kopech, and Gio Gonzalez; the only arms to eclipse the 30% mark, by the way. Acquired from the Yankees as part the thee-team deal involving the Rays, Widener continued his rapid ascension through the minor leagues, easily passing – and dominating – the most important challenge of his career, Class AA. Taken in the 12th round out of the University of South Carolina in 2016; the 6-foot, 195-pound right-hander made 26 appearances for the Jackson Generals last season; throwing a career-high 137.1 innings with a whopping 176 strikeouts and only 43 walks. He finished the year with a 2.75 ERA and a 3.06 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

Analysis: The Yankees have generally done an exceptional job evaluating their own talent – especially when it comes to trades. Jesus Montero, for example, immediately pops into mind. But Widener’s one that they simply missed. The 6-foot, 195-pound hurler attacks hitters with three above-average or better offerings. His fastball, a plus-pitch, sits in the low 90s, toughing as high as 95 mph on occasions – or when needed. His slider, a hellacious breaking pitch, shows wicked-late 12-6 tilt. And his changeup, an underrated third pitch, is thrown with solid arm speed with sink-and-fade and can be devastating on left-handers. All three pitches tunnel exceptionally well. He’s ready to step into a big league rotation today with a ceiling as a #2-type arm.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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2. Jon Duplantier, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 60 55 55 50 40/45 60+

Background: One of the more dominating arms in the 2016 draft class, Duplantier, a massive 6-foot-4, 225-pound right-hander, capped off his final season with Rice in incredible fashion: he posted a 148-to-47 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 111.0 innings of work. The hard-throwing hurler didn’t hear his name called until the third round, a result of (A) a shoulder injury that forced him to miss the entire previous season and (B) Rice University tends to not treat its arms all that well. Duplantier helped ease some concerns after a breakout 2017 season in the Diamondbacks’ system. Splitting time between Kane County (Low Class A) and Visalia (High Class A), the big righty posted an ace-like 165-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 136.0 innings of work. Last season the club bumped him up to the Southern League – where he teamed with Taylor Widener to form one of the top pitching duos in the minor leagues. Unfortunately for Duplantier, a hamstring issue and some biceps tendonitis limited him to just 14 starts with the Generals and another two during his rehab. He finished his time in the Southern League with 67 IP, 68 strikeouts, 28 free passes, a 2.69 ERA, and a 4.70 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

Analysis: Not quite the pitching prospect that teammate Taylor Widener is developing into, but Duplantier, nonetheless, has the build, makeup, and arsenal to slide into a #3/#4-type role in the coming year or two. Duplantier shows a standard four-pitch repertoire: a plus-fastball due to his long limbs, deception, and arm-side movement; a big 12-6 overhand curveball that can generate more than the occasional knee-jerk from hitters; an above-average slider; and a decent changeup. Duplantier’s ceiling is limited by two factors: his below-average control/command and he’s going to have to prove that he can continually stay healthy from year-to-year. I think he’s a bit overrated. And if it comes down to picking Widener vs. Duplantier, I go with the former – no question.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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3. Jake McCarthy, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50/55 50 60 55 60

Background: The list of similarities between Jake and his older brother Joe is fairly extensive: left-handed; big frames (6-foot-2, 200 pounds vs. 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds); outfielders; attended Virginia; incredibly saber-friendly; and – of course – missed significant amount of time during their junior campaigns with the Cavaliers. Joe, who is four years older, was limited to just 33 contests as he recovered from back surgery in 2015. And Jake, who missed all but six games during his freshman season thanks to torn ligaments in his right big toe, missed several weeks thanks to a fairly severe wrist injury in early March. Thanks to the toe injury, the younger McCarthy, who was taken in the later rounds of the 2015 draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates coming out of high school, was one of the better surprises for the collegiate powerhouse two years ago. Just 19-years-old, McCarthy slugged a healthy .338/.425/.506 with 11 doubles, seven triples, and five homeruns. The toolsy center fielder also swiped 27 bags in 29 total attempts. And just like his older brother, his plate discipline – especially his ability to square up the ball consistently – was impressive: he finished the year with a 35-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 279 trips to the plate. McCarthy the Younger spent the 2017 summer playing for Team USA, though he struggled a bit with the bat. In 20 games, the Virginia star batted a lowly .232/.317/.321 with just four extra-base knocks (three doubles and a triple) in 56 at bats. Last season, despite sandwiching in a severe wrist injury, McCarthy– once again – proved to be a force at the plate: in 20 games, the well-built center fielder sported a .329/.414/.415 triple-slash line, belting out seven doubles and swiping nine bags in as many attempts. Arizona – wisely – snagged the young center fielder at the backend of the first round last June, 39th overall, and signed him to a $1.65 million deal. McCarthy spent the lion’s share of his debut with the Hillsboro Hops in the Northwest League, batting a solid .288/.378/.442 in 55 games. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 32%.

Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about the former Cavalier heading into the 2018 draft:

“The sample size is incredibly limited – it’s just a total of 400 plate appearances – with most of it being limited to his 2017 campaign. But McCarthy’s skill set has been consistent: solid eye at the plate, above-average hit tool, above-average or better speed and matching base-running prowess, and double-digit homerun potential. Let’s take a look back at his biggest sample size and compare it recent history. Consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2017, only five ACC hitters that met the following criteria (min. 200 PA): a walk rate between 8.5% and 10%; a strikeout rate between 11.5% and 13.5%; and an Isolated Power between .125 and .175. Those six hitters are Preston Palmeiro, Ryan Peurifoy, Brandon Riley, Gavin Sheets, and – of course – McCarthy.

Breaking down the other five hitters: Palmeiro, who also accomplished the feat during his sophomore season (and is the son of former MLB slugger Rafael Palmeiro), was a seventh round pick in 2016 by the Baltimore Orioles; Peurifoy accomplished the feat during his senior campaign at Georgia Tech in 2017 and was a late, late round pick by the Pirates as well; and Sheets, who met the aforementioned criteria during his sophomore season at Wake Forest, was an eventual second round pick after his power blossomed as a junior.

Unlike Palmeiro and Sheets, who were relegated to first base during their collegiate careers, McCarthy can – presumably – handle all three outfielder positions and can generate value beyond the bat (e.g. on the base paths and on defense). He might have had a shot as an early first round pick had he stayed healthy, but he now will likely be a late first/second round selection. There’s some MLB starting caliber value here, though.”

During his debut McCarthy looked every bit the player I suspect – with above-average or better speed on the base paths. It was a very, very solid pick by the Diamondbacks’ front office.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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4. Daulton Varsho, C

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50/55 50 50 55 60

Background: The son of big league veteran outfielder and pinch hitter extraordinaire Gary Varsho, Daulton turned quite a few heads during his final two seasons with the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, a smaller Division I school. The younger Varsho posted OPS totals of 1.057 and 1.133 during his sophomore and junior campaigns with the Panthers. Arizona snagged the lefty-swinging backstop in the second round, 68th overall, two years ago. After a strong debut in the Northwest League, Varsho earned a promotion straight up to High Class A in 2018. A fractured hand limited him to just 80 games with Visalia, though he did manage to slug a respectable .286/.363/.451 with 11 doubles, three triples, and 11 homeruns. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a solid 21%.

Analysis: As I remarked heading into the 2017 draft, Varsho has “double-digit power, an average eye at the plate, and strong contact skills – all wrapped up at a premium position.” And that analysis/scouting report still holds true a year later – despite an aggressive promotion up to High Class A. The lefty-swinging Varsho shows no semblance of platoon splits and has looked like a brick wall behind the dish, posting a +16 in the runs saved department since entering the professional ranks. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016 only one 21-year-old hitter – former big league veteran infielder Chris Nelson – met the following criteria in the California League (min. 300 PA): 115 to 125 wRC+ total, 8% to 10% walk rate; and a K-rate below 23%. Nelson, by the way, peaked as a 109 wRC+ big league hitter in 2012 for the Rockies.

Varsho remains one of the more underrated backstops in the minor leagues. Plus, he’s only entering his age-22 season.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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5. Jazz Chisholm, SS

Hit Power SB Field Overall 40/50 55 45 55 55+

Background: Easily one of the biggest surprises in Arizona’s farm system last year. Chisholm signed with the club out of Nassau, Bahamas, as an amateur free agent for $300,000 in 2015. And for his first two professional seasons, the lefty-swinging shortstop was largely a disappointment, posting below-average wRC+ totals in the Pioneer and Midwest Leagues. Last season, though, the then-20-year-old middle infielder returned to Kane County for a do-over and the results improved – significantly. In 76 games with the Cougars, Chisholm slugged .244/.311/.472 with 17 doubles, four triples, and 15 homeruns. Arizona bounced him up to the California in mid-July and Chisholm put on his best Babe Ruth impersonation, hitting .329/.369/.597 with gobs of power. He finished his third professional season with an aggregate .272/.329/.513 triple-slash line, belting out 23 doubles, six triples, and 25 homeruns en route to earning the Diamondbacks’ Minor League Player of the Year award.

Analysis: Despite tapping into his potential as an offensive-minded shortstop, not everything’s rosy for the Bahamas-native. Fellow southpaws chewed him up and spit out last season, holding him to a lowly .218/.258/.412 mark (vs. the .291/.354/.549 showing against RHP). And this is the third straight season in which he’s severely struggled against southpaws. Chisholm contact rates – or lack thereof – are beyond concerning; he posted a 31.2% K-rate during his first go-round in Low Class A and only improved that number barely in his return (28.4%); and he fanned in nearly one-third of his California League PAs too. As easy as it is to buy into the hype, the breaks needed be pumped here – at least until he solves those two issues.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

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6. Alek Thomas, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50/55 40/50 55 50/55 60

Background: During Thomas’ youth his father, Allen, was the Chicago White Sox’s strength and conditioning coach. So it only makes sense that Thomas, the club’s second round pick last June, is a chiseled center fielder oozing with tools. The 63rd overall player chosen, the 5-foot-11, 175-pound center fielder split his debut between the club’s Arizona Summer League and Pioneer League affiliates, hitting an aggregate .333/.395/.463 with 14 doubles, six triples, and two homeruns. He also swiped a dozen bags in 17 total attempts. According to Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the average mark by 33%.

Analysis: Thomas showed a promising, well-rounded game on both sides of the ball. He has the potential to develop an above-average hit tool to go along with plenty of speed and solid defense. If he develops power – which may or may not happen because he put more than 50% of his balls in play on the ground – Thomas looks like a five-tool threat.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2022

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7. Matt Mercer, RHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 70 50/55 65/70 45/50 55

Background: A workout buddy of Cleveland Indians ace Trevor Bauer at Driveline Baseball. Mercer is quickly becoming one of my favorite arms in all of the minor leagues. A fifth round pick out of the University of Oregon, Mercer left the baseball powerhouse with a career 176-to-84 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 216.1 innings of work. After signing with Arizona for $314,800, Mercer spent the lion’s share of his debut in the Northwest League. In 12 starts with the Hillsboro Hops, the hard-throwing right-hander tallied a whopping 37 strikeouts and just six free passes in 27.0 innings of work. He finished his time with the short-season club with an even 3.00 ERA.

Analysis: In terms of draft value, Mercer may end up being one of the best players chosen in last June’s class. The 6-foot-2, 180-pound right-hander has an explosive 90s fastball that peaks upwards of 98 mph. But his changeup may end up being his best offering when it’s all said and done. Thrown with tremendous arm speed, Mercer’s changeup shows splitter-like movement, often diving down-and-away to lefties. It’s a true plus-offering. He’ll also mix in a solid overhand curveball. In terms of floor, Mercer could wind up being a fastball/changeup late-inning reliever a la Fernando Rodney. But he has some intriguing upside as a power-pitcher out of the rotation. Remember this name.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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8. Pavin Smith, 1B

Hit Power SB Field Overall 55/60 40/45 30 60 50+

Background: Arguably the most advanced bat in the entire 2017 draft class. Smith was a reliable, steadily improving force to be reckoned with in the middle of Virginia’s lineup throughout his three-year stay. He left the school as a .325/.402/.514 career hitter. Arizona snagged the safe, low ceiling first baseman with the seventh overall pick two years ago. And after a decent debut showing in the Northwest League (.318/.401/.415), the organization pushed him directly up to High Class A for 2018. In 120 games with the Visalia Rawhide, the hefty 6-foot-2, 210-pound first baseman batted a completely mediocre .255/.343/.392 with just 25 doubles, one triple, and 11 homeruns. He also swiped three bags in five attempts. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his production topped the league average mark by 1%.

Here’s a quick snippet of what I wrote about Smith heading into the draft two years ago:

“Smith’s ceiling is fairly low a she’s never really flashed above-average or better power. The go-to-comparison for smooth swinging first baseman with limited power is usually Eric Hosmer or James Loney. At his peak, [Smith] looks like a .290/.370/.410-type first baseman.”

A year later and the analysis still rings true, perhaps a little optimistic now. Now to be fair, Smith got off to a predictably slow start due to his aggressive promotion. He batted a lowly .156/.286/.299 in the month of April; and he rebounded to bat .276/.356/.412 the remainder of the way – which was in line with his original analysis. He has an above-average hit tool, a tremendous eye at the plate, above-average to plus-glove at first base, and well below-average power. Nearly 50% of the balls he’s put into play in his career have been on the ground. If he were a shortstop, he’d be a Top 50 prospect. But he’s mired at a power-oriented position. I still think he’ll be an above-average big leaguer on the patience/defense combination, but he needs to prove he walk more than 10% of his plate appearances if pitchers aren’t afraid of him.

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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9. Kristian Robinson, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 40/45 50/55 55 45/50 50+

Background: Handed adeal worth a little more than $2.5 million in early July 2017. Robinson, born in Nassau, Bahamas, spent time in the Arizona Summer and Pioneer Leagues during his debut last season, hitting .279/.363/.428 12 doubles and seven homeruns. The 6-foot-3, 190-pound center fielder also swiped in 12 bags in 20 attempts. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average threshold by a solid 19%.

Analysis: There’s a lot to like about the teenage center fielder: solid patience at the plate, OK hit tool and contact rates, above-average speed, and promising power potential. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, here’s the list of 17-year-old hitters that posted a 110 to 120 wRC+ mark in the Arizona Summer League (min. 150 PA): Ronald Guzman, Julio Morban, Phillips Castillo, Mike Edie, and Gleyber Torres. Two of the five – Guzman and Torres – have already accrued big league time.

Robinson is still quite raw. And he’s going to have to cut down his strikeouts. But it’s incredibly promising that he handled jumping straight into the stateside rookie league and then a brief tour through the Pioneer League.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2022

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10. Matt Tabor, RHP

FB SL CH Control Overall 55/60 55 60 55

Background: A highly touted third round pick out of Milton Academy two years ago. Tabor, a 6-foot-2, 180-pound right-hander, was one of only seven players taken in the third round that received a seven-figure bonus that season. After an abbreviated debut in the Arizona Summer League, Arizona bounced the young hurler up to the Northwest League for the entire 2018 season. In 14 starts with the Hillsboro Hops – arguably the best uniforms in the minor leagues, by the way – Tabor tossed 60.2 innings, recording 46 strikeouts against just 13 walks. He finished the year with a 3.26 ERA and a 3.92 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

Analysis: Tabor loves challenging hitters with his low 90s fastball, particularly in on the hands, and then pull-the-string low-and-away on a lethal changeup which shows downward tumble. The changeup is already a plus pitch and has a chance to be one of the better ones in the minor leagues with a little refinement. It can be a devastating offering. His slider flashes above-average as well. Tabor’s strikeout rate, 6.8 K/9, is a bit concerning. But there’s plenty of room for hope: along with three above-average or better pitches, Tabor’s swinging strike percentage last season, 13.2%, was the fourth best in the Northwest League (min. 40 IP). He has the potential to be a league-average starter, though he’s several years away.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021/2022

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.