That roughly tracks with the conventional wisdom in Democratic circles as they campaign in 2018: allow Democrats to run local races without national interference, don’t rock the boat with too much progressivism, and don’t make it too much about that guy in the White House. Of course, what works in the midterms won’t necessarily work in 2020, when the stakes will be national and Trump will be unavoidable. “The way to disempower Trump is to ignore him, but it’s too hard even for his opponents to do it,” Columbia Law professor Tim Wu told my colleague Peter Hamby. “It has to be a pure attention battle.” That means Democrats ultimately have to create their own programming, characters, celebrities, and story lines that are just as captivating as Trump. It will require something more than the “‘I Hate Trump’ show,” as Wu called it—but it can’t entirely ignore Trump, either.

Beating Trump at the attention battle will be a tall order for Democrats—especially given how Trump has weaponized liberal discontent to solidify his support. (One recent poll found that after his handling of the economy and his general policies, nearly 8 out of 10 G.O.P. voters in battleground House races said the thing they liked most about Trump was his commitment to “upsetting the ‘elites’ and the establishment.”) While Trump remains historically unpopular overall, he has an incredibly high approval rating within his own party, with 87 percent of Republican voters saying they approve of his performance thus far. If the economy doesn’t weaken, the wind will be at Trump’s back in 2020, despite historic Democratic activism and engagement. Democrats may need Obama-level turnout to beat back Trump’s small but intensely committed voter base.

So far, polling suggests that a generic Democrat would beat Trump, with the latest putting their chances at 44 to 36 percent. But once real Democrats get into the 2020 race, the calculus changes. Trump and his Republican allies have already painted Sanders as a radical and Warren as an opportunist. Landrieu has been criticized as a self-promoter, Patrick’s name would become synonymous with Bain Capital, and Kander could be dismissed as untested. The key for each will be to define themselves, and their narrative, before Trump can brand them himself.

Obama, who always maintained close control of his image and personal story, may be indispensable in that regard, especially at this early stage of the 2020 race. He will almost certainly emerge as a party kingmaker, whether he covets the role or not. According to Politico, Obama won’t get involved in midterm endorsements until this fall, and is not expected to endorse anyone for president until after the party coalesces around a nominee. Still, it’s possible Obama has his favorites. He remains close with former vice president Joe Biden, who is reportedly leaning toward running, and the two talk on the phone frequently. “The 2020 race and what Biden’s going to do haven’t come up in those discussions,” people briefed on those conversations said, with Obama “waiting on his friend to make a decision.”