Chris Sikich

chris.sikich@indystar.com

Democrats think Donald Trump's controversial campaign and close races for governor and senator will help them build momentum to end the Republican supermajority in the Indiana House and pick up seats in the Indiana Senate.

Republicans have had unprecedented control of the Indiana General Assembly for four years, electing majorities large enough to supersede procedural rules and allowing them to conduct meetings without Democrats present.

Since 2012, Republicans have picked up 21 seats in the House and three in the Senate. The GOP now holds a 71-29 advantage in the House — the largest majority for either party in more than 40 years. Republicans have a 40-10 advantage in the Senate — the largest majority in more than 60 years.

They've used that power to successfully implement a platform that includes cutting taxes, reducing business and utility regulations, limiting unions, further restricting abortions and increasing funding for school vouchers. They also, political insiders say, overreached by passing the controversial Religious Freedom Restoration Act before walking it back amid a national furor over its impact on sexual orientation and gender equality rights.

During the final three weeks before the Nov. 8 election, Republicans and Democrats are preparing for campaign blitzes in key districts. While 73 of 100 House seats and 17 of 25 Senate seats are being contested, party insiders say only a handful are competitive due to gerrymandering that leaves the majority of seats solidly in one party's control.

Political insiders say Democrats are likely to pick up the five seats they need to end the supermajority in the House. While they may gain seats in the Senate, insiders say they are unlikely to pick up the seven needed in that chamber.

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House Minority Leader Scott Pelath, D-Michigan City, said Democrats have been energized by the narrowing race for president and the campaigns of John Gregg and Evan Bayh.

"I think the people of Indiana are tired of unchecked government at the Statehouse," he said. "If we elect John Gregg, you can't have a governor who is vulnerable to every executive decision he makes being unraveled in the legislature. Breaking the supermajority will ensure the governor is not rolled over."

House Speaker Brian Bosma, R-Indianapolis, said Republicans are campaigning hard, but he acknowledged holding the supermajority would be difficult. He expects close races in several districts the GOP won in the past two elections that lean Democratic, especially in Northwest Indiana.

"'We are very confident we will retain a strong majority," Bosma said. "But there are a lot of competitive races where we have been very successful in picking up some routinely Democrat-controlled seats in the last two cycles."

Three Democrats who lost House seats two years ago during a strong election cycle for Republicans are trying to regain seats, including:

District 12 in Lake County, former state Rep. Mara Candelaria Reardon is vying for her former seat against incumbent Bill Fine, R-Munster.

District 19 in Lake County, former Democratic Rep. Shelli VanDenburgh is challenging incumbent Julie Olthoff, R-Crown Point, for her old seat.

District 42 in Terre Haute, Democrat Tim Skinner is challenging incumbent Republican Alan Morrison. Skinner was defeated in nearby District 38 two years ago, but he has since has moved.

Democrats think they can make all races in Northwest Indiana competitive. These are also being watched closely:

District 4 in Porter County, Midwest Environmental Systems CEO Pamela Fish, a Democrat, is challenging incumbent Ed Soliday, R-Valparaiso, who has won several tight races.

District 20 in LaPorte County, incumbent Republican Tom Dermody is not running, leaving Democrats hopeful they can pick up an open seat. Democrat Karen Biernacki, CEO of Family Advocates, is challenging Republican Jim Pressel, who owns a building company and serves on the local plan commission.

Locally, Democrats are watching District 89 in Marion County. Democrat Rachel Burke, a member of Warren Township's school board, is facing Republican incumbent Cindy Kirchhofer. John Gregg, Joe Donnelly and Glenda Ritz won that district in 2012, but Democrats did not field a candidate for the legislative seat. Kirchhofer won fairly easily in 2014, a strong year for the GOP.

Democrats also are keeping an eye on District 26 in Lafayette because incumbent Randy Truitt is retiring after winning several close races. Democrat Victoria Woeste, a research professor, is running against Republican County Councilwoman Sally Siegrist.

In the Senate, gerrymandering has made seats more difficult for Democrats to win. They think three open seats held by Republicans are vulnerable, though.

The most competitive may be District 30, which includes parts of the Broad Ripple area and Fishers. Scott Schneider won a close race two years but is retiring. Former Democratic City-Council Councilwoman Pam Hickman and former Republican Rep. John Ruckelshaus are vying for his seat.

Pat Miller also is retiring in District 32, which includes an area that tends to lean Republican in southeast Marion County. Republican City-County Councilman Aaron Freeman is facing Beech Grove Middle School teacher Sara Wiley.

District 36, which includes southern Marion County, is open because incumbent Brent Waltz ran unsuccessfully for Congress. The district includes parts of Downtown, which Democrats hope gives them an opening. Republican City-County Councilman Jack Sandlin is facing health care industry compliance professional Sean Gorman, who defeated the Democrats' slated candidate in May.

Outside Marion County, Democrats like their chances against incumbent Ed Charbonneau, R-Valparaiso, in District 5 in Northwest Indiana. Gregg and Barack Obama each won the district four years ago, though Charbonneau convinced enough voters to split tickets that he hung on to his seat. He's facing attorney Jim Harper, who Democrats think has the name recognition to win. His mother is a Porter County judge and his father was a former Porter County prosecutor and commissioner.

A sleeper race may materialize in District 44, which includes parts of Brown, Jackson and Lawrence counties. Republican incumbent Brent Steele is retiring. House Energy Chairman Eric Koch, R-Bedford, and former Democratic State Rep. Linda Henderson are vying to replace him. Koch has been scrutinized after reporting economic interest in dozens of oil, gas and energy companies.

Republicans hope to flip one seat.

Jim Arnold, D-LaPorte, is retiring in District 8, which includes parts of LaPorte County. While Arnold won his last race easily, Republicans are fielding a well-known candidate and the Democratic challenger is largely unknown. Republican County Commissioner Mike Bohacek is facing retired Ivy Tech teacher Maxine Spenner, who beat the Democrats' slated candidate in May.

Call IndyStar reporter Chris Sikich at (317) 444-6036. Follow him on Twitter: @ ChrisSikich and atFacebook/chris.sikich.