Opposition activists protest near the Cuban Embassy in Caracas, Venezuela, on March 16, 2014. Juan Barreto | AFP | Getty Images

In the midst of chaos in Venezuela, a dependent Cuba and its economic future is walking on a tight rope.

As Venezuela's economic woes deepen, with an annualized inflation rate reaching 57 percent, and violent clashes between pro- and anti-government protesters escalate, the probability of a new government is high, making Cuba's future uncertain. Even if Nicolas Maduro, who succeeded the late Hugo Chavez as president, stays in power, he could be forced to cut aid to Cuba to help alleviate Venezuela's imploded economy, which suffers from stagnation, inflation and shortages. For the last decade, Venezuela's oil has helped fuel Cuba's economy, providing 60 percent of the communist-ruled island's demands. In exchange, Cuba sends about 30,000 doctors to Venezuela, according to an analysis by Pavel Vidal, a former official at Cuba's central bank and now an economics professor at the Universidad Javeriana in Cali, Colombia. The commercial relationship with leftist Venezuela accounts for 40 percent of Cuba's trade—or 18 percent of Cuba's gross domestic product, Vidal said. If Venezuela were to cut Cuba loose, completely or partially, it could cause Cuba's economy to contract anywhere from 4 percent to 7.7 percent.

"Cuba depends on Venezuela's political situation," Vidal said. "And right now, Venezuela is unpredictable." (Read more: Venezuelan turmoil poses little oil threat—for now)

Cuba is well aware of its vulnerability, Vidal said, noting that it's not the first time the island nation has found itself facing this type of situation. Rewind to the '90s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, when Cuba's economy shrunk by 35 percent. The Soviet Union was a major ally and economic subsidizer, accounting for 28 percent of Cuba's economy. (Read more: Inside Cuba: Market Economy Takes Hold in Socialist State) Looking only at the numbers, the impact to Cuba's economy without the aid of Venezuela would be far less than the country suffered in the '90s, but that doesn't mean that Cuba's pain would be lessened. In fact, it could be devastating. Cuba's economy is still convalescent and is not prepared for another punch, which, according to Vidal's report, could drive the country into a recession. "Today, Cuba's economy is in worse condition than in the late '80s to implement an adjustment if it undergoes another shock, and it would be far more complicated to manage," Vidal said. (Read more: Fed tapering good for Mexico: Minister) "It will be an economic disaster," said Jorge R. Piñon, interim director at the Center for International & Environmental Policy at the University of Texas, adding that Cuba would be back to post-Soviet times. "Cuba today has put all of its eggs in one basket. Before it was the Soviet Union's basket, today is Venezuela's basket." Cuban economist and journalist Roberto Alvarez Quiñones agrees. Without Venezuela and its oil and subsidies "industrial production, trade, transport, agriculture, and the whole economy would be affected dramatically. Medieval nights of the '90s would return, with blackouts of up to 14 hours in some areas," Alvarez Quiñones wrote in a column for Diaro de Cuba.