Iraqi Kurdish leaders have long sought to craft an energy policy independent of the federal government in Baghdad, courting international companies and offering lucrative deals to drill for potentially huge new reserves of oil and gas.

Then in September, Kurdish voters overwhelmingly chose to break free of Baghdad. But instead of stepping closer to nationhood, the Kurds were handed a humiliating setback: Iraqi troops seized the disputed city of Kirkuk and the oil fields around it. That loss of territory comes on top of worsening trends in the local oil sector and continued tensions between Kurdistan, a region in northern Iraq, and its neighbors.

Taken in concert, those factors raise questions about the Kurds’ strategy of achieving political independence through energy, which provides nearly of all the regional government’s revenue.

The consequences of battling over northern Iraq’s riches extend beyond the region’s borders. Kurdistan’s oil sales look unlikely to live up to their early promise, and the uncertainty that followed the referendum only heaps risk on energy markets already unsettled by heated rhetoric between the United States and Iran, and the near-collapse of Venezuela.