The first week of spring has brought sunshine and warmth, welcome visitors after the winter. But it has also brought, for those who look into the future, intimations of what may lie over the horizon come summer: the threat of power blackouts. The memory of last summer in Victoria has not faded and nor could it or should it, for it serves as a warning of what could be in store.

Last January, the system all but fell over. On January 24, the temperature in Melbourne reached 41 degrees, the next day it hit 43. Statewide it was the warmest January on record, the result of heatwave after heatwave over December and January. Kerang scorched at 47.6, the highest temperature recorded for January in Victoria. On January 25 in Melbourne, 200,000 people suffered power cuts, 50 suburbs and townships were affected by blackouts. One fifth of the state’s power generation failed.

Victoria's Loy Yang A coal-fired power plant. Credit:Bloomberg

The outlook for this summer hasn’t been revealed, but spring is expected to be drier and warmer than usual, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

Can it be said, unequivocally, there won’t be power failures in Victoria this summer? No. Given that the supply of power is essential, that should not be the answer. At the time of the January failure, the state’s Energy Minister, Lily D’Ambrosio, complained that Victoria had a “20th-century energy system for a 21st-century climate”. The Australian Energy Market Operator had to step in and cut power so as to relieve the overloaded grid.