As Brexit looms tantalisingly close now, the UK government are aggravating nation-wide fears by shrouding the public from a practical post-Brexit plan. The long overdue White Paper failed to put these anxieties to rest, promising only a regulated free trade zone and preferential treatment to students, tourists and businesses in our future EU-UK relationship. Although of course, this could be wiped out entirely in the final Brexit verdict.

With just over six months to go, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) released its report ‘Open and Controlled: A New Approach to Immigration After Brexit’, outlining 18 key industries that will inevitably by impacted by Brexit. For the hospitality, tourism and food and drink industries, the CBI report found the sectors’ heavy reliance on EU migrants could be problematic for recruiters past 2021 – the end of the Brexit implementation period.

An estimated 442,000 EU migrants work in hotels and restaurants, accounting for 12% of the sectors’ total workforce. Recruiters have long benefitted from Free Movement as they filled vacancies in hotels, restaurants, bars, kitchens and head office with EU talent. The CBI estimate that 75% of severs are European, as is 37% of housekeepers, 24% of chefs, 21% of kitchen and catering assistants, 23% of housekeeping managers or supervisors and 13% of hotel managers or proprietors.

Although these migrants have been promised ‘Settled Status’ in the UK after Brexit so long as they apply before the deadline, around 1 in 10 are still considering dropping out of the UK. Combine this with the high turnover rate that’s typical of the industry and the industry has a staffing crisis on its hands. Local residential workers in the UK are not enough to fill the gaps, meaning many businesses could fall into a void without additional support post-Brexit. As many as 3% of hospitality managers believe they will be forced to close shop in the face of shortages since 1 in 5 (18%) have already expressed they have experienced difficulties hiring this past year. 16% of managers claim they will not be able to fill requirements in the next five years with just residential workers alone.

To exacerbate matters, a no-deal Brexit would see the UK crashing out of the EU without an appropriate plan. In this scenario, immigration experts suspect that the current immigration system in place for non-EU migrants will extend to include EU citizens.

However, this would spell disaster for the hospitality industry since the stringent requirements of the Tier 2 Work Visa would see most staff exempt from a visa. The financial requirements dictate that applicants must earn at least £30,000 a year, which alone eradicates the majority of front of house staff. Applicants must also pass an English language test and demonstrate they have up to £1,000 in personal savings, eliminating young hopefuls that are just starting their career.

To add to recruiter woes, the Tier 2 Work Visa is capped annually at 20,700. This means that, even if hospitality applicants were eligible for this visa, they would be competing with all other UK industries that also hire from abroad before the cap is filled. The CBI estimate that 96% of EU workers currently in the hospitality sector would not gain entry into the UK is they had to abide by Tier 2 rules.

The current migration process is already damaging recruiter pools in the UK. Managers are reluctant to hire workers who require a Tier 2 Visa because of the gruelling process it takes to apply for a Sponsor Licence. The process is incredibly time consuming and costly, yet necessary to attain: international employees are disqualified from their visa if their employer is not a licenced sponsor. The administrative strain this could impose on smaller branches if it becomes appropriate to EU applicants could bury businesses; forking out for the legal advice alone just to navigate through the laborious process is enough to topple independently run places. The CBI advocate for the removal of sponsorship licences, or at the very least calls for the application to be simplified enough to encourage managers to hire from overseas in the future.

To save the industry from a ‘cliff edge’, the CBI report also calls for the upheaval of the Tier 2 Visa. Not only should the cap be removed, but the visa ought to be simplified so that recruiters have access to a range of skill sets and workers. The diversity of skill levels and professions are integral to the survival of most UK industries – most of all the hospitality sector that requires a wide range from highly skilled chefs to so-called ‘lower-skilled’ labour. The only saving grace of this is that chefs are currently listed on the UK’s Shortage Occupation List. This means that migrant chefs can apply for a kitchen job in the UK without being subjected to Tier 2 requirements and also reap the benefit of a discounted visa fee. Although, if chefs are already classed as in ‘severe shortage’ pre-Brexit, the future looks bleak. After Brexit, the UK will be contending with the remaining EU states to hire the best chefs. Restaurants and hotels will have to have a competitive edge to persuade disillusioned EU workers.

Fuelling fears that a poor immigration plan is on the cards, the latest Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) released its report on Tuesday. Unlike the CBI, the MAC report seeks to squash access to lower-skilled workers after Brexit: “We do not see the need for a work-related scheme with the possible exception of a seasonal agricultural workers scheme” it says. The MAC report is overly ambitious to believe it will fill a range of roles and skills on an extended youth mobility scheme: not all EU migrants are young.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom for hospitality. A devalued pound will hike interest from foreign tourists further afield who are keen to travel to the UK while conversion rates are attractive. A post-Brexit Britain could see more Brits on our beaches than abroad since travelling locally will be cheaper than vacating overseas. In turn, this will assist in driving up sales for the industry and will provide a boost to the overall economy.

Whether this is enough to save the industry from Brexit’s eternal winter that brings landslide staff shortages, rota gaps and snowed under customer service – only time will tell. If the UK government follow the MAC guidelines, only the highly skilled and wealthy migrants will be able to squeeze through our tightened border controls. But what’s costing hospitality the most, is the growing silence as businesses risk losing their current migrant staff. An immigration plan is desperately needed now. The hospitality sector can’t afford to wait.

By Olivia Bridge, a specialist content writer and political correspondent for the Immigration Advice Service, a leading law firm for UK Immigration Lawyers