For the first time in Survivor history, this season featured a merge while never going to two tribes. A sign that even 17 years into this thing, the show can still produce some franchise firsts.

Given the fact that we have never seen a three tribe season before, this season has given us a lot of new things to watch out for. It may seem like a trivial difference but the number of tribes at the merge has almost always been two. Changing that number has made for a different game and different strategies.

We still don’t know how everything will play out for the Survivor: Heroes vs Healers vs Hustlers cast but we have seen a decent amount of post-merge footage to get a feel on a three tribe only season. Having gotten the chance to see this play out, let’s see if we can find some material that might help future players if they ever find themselves merging with three tribes.

Your original tribe matters even more

Based simply on logic, the players’ original tribes are always going to matter. Even if these tribes are arbitrarily decided by production trying to make a theme into reality, for the players, that first tribe is the first people you talk to. It may seem silly that you are going to be trusting complete strangers after only a few days but it’s the way the game is made to work. Even through tribe swaps, it’s hard to shake the bond that is created on the inaugural tribe.

In a three tribe season and merge, it sure seems like that bond is amplified. From what we’ve seen of the merge so far, every tribe has stuck together as a unit. We’ve seen the Healers vote against each other in the last two votes but even in that case, they got back to working together as soon as tribal council was over.

Considering the smaller numbers on three tribes, it kind of makes sense. Initially, it’s impossible not to get to know the people around you. When there’s 10 people on the same tribe, some of them may get lost in the shuffle. Compare that to being surrounded by 5 other people, you’re going to get to know all of them much more personally.

Then, when there is a swap into three new tribes, it’s only natural that players will want to stick with the people they know. In such a small tribe, having one close ally that you’ve played with since day one can make a huge difference.

If you’re ever on a three tribe season, make sure to get in good with your original team. It will always pay dividends in the long run but could be especially huge if Survivor decides to repeat this three tribe merge idea.

Being the majority tribe is bad

This one we could see coming from a mile away. Traditionally, having numbers at the merge is ideal. It’s a whole lot easier to win the game if your tribe is in control at the merge. There was a time in the early days of Survivor where being in the minority at the merge basically guaranteed you were not going to even have a chance at making it to the end.

In a three tribe merge? It’s very different. There’s having the majority among the tribes and having the outright majority. One is bad, one is good. This season, the Healers went into the merge having the tribe majority. They were five players and the Heroes and Hustlers were four and three respectively.

Now I’m no Survivor: the Amazon’s Dave Johnson, but I can do basic math. 3+4=7 which is greater than 5. Knowing how tight the original tribes were, it only made sense for the Heroes and the Hustlers to join together in voting out the Healers before turning on each other. It’s exactly what happened.

Coming into the merge with that kind of numbers in a season where it doesn’t represent the total majority is just asking for trouble. The Healers were confident in their chances because they had the most players left of any tribe but in reality, they should have seen this counter-alliance coming.

Now there are ways to combat this. Specifically this season, one swapped tribe had a three Healer majority. That tribe did not lose a single immunity challenge. Had they seen the light of day and thrown both challenges to vote out Ben and Lauren, the minority in the swapped tribe, they would have entered the merge with six people with the other side having a combined six people as well. At that point, it’s an arms race between the two sides and the Healers might have naturally trusted each other more simply from the fact that they were together since day one.

Conversely, losing is good

Way back in episode three, with the Hustlers going down to four people early in the game, Ryan called his shot. He told Jeff at tribal council that all this early losing was going to make the Hustlers into a tighter bunch. One that could trust each other going into the merge. As it turns out, that is exactly what has happened.

Since they were the minority tribe at the merge, the Hustlers were seen as the kingmakers. Both the Healers and the Heroes needed the Hustlers to be on their side in order to prevail. It didn’t matter at that point that both sides could have decided to just vote out the weakest tribe because it wouldn’t have made sense.

I’ve always advocated in a three tribe start that losing isn’t a bad thing. I don’t think going full Matsing is the idea in this scenario. You just want to cut off the extra fat on your tribe to feel confident with the people you have going into a swap or a merge. We’ve long past the days of Survivor strategy were everything stayed status quo. Whenever new blood is injected into a tribe, that tribe wants to do something with it.

It’s unclear whether the Hustlers will stick together when the Knights of the Round Table start turning on each other. Lauren has allegiances to Ben. Ryan and Chrissy seem to have a thing going on as well. At that point, it’s late in the game and the day one bonds don’t pale as much in comparison to the merge bonds. What is clear is that losing those early immunity challenges gave Ryan, Devon, and Lauren a platform to further themselves into the post-merge dynamics.

If your tribe is being Pagong-ed find a way to be the last person standing

This involves a bit of prediction on my end but it makes a lot of sense and has been echoed by everybody. As the Healers are being decimated, room is running out around the majority alliance. Soon, they will have to thrust their knives into each other.

With only Joe and Mike left hanging around as the original Healers, they should be fighting to see the other one going first. The majority alliance may choose to betray each other already but it’s a safe bet that if they vote out one of the Healers, the cannibalizing will start soon after that. There’s no point in completely destroying the Healers before turning on each other.

Why? Because one side is going to feel like they are in the bottom three of their alliance. If those people want any hope of turning it around on the top half of the alliance, they will need some outside help. That’s hard to do if you’ve voted everyone else off.

If Mike or Joe are still hanging around, they would be willing helpers. Their goal at that point will be seeing another round of play. They can only do that by siding with somebody and voting out someone from the majority. They would be crazy to shoot down any offers they receive at that point in the game.

As the season begins to get into the end-game, we will see how everything breaks down. Will the original tribes stick together until the end? Is it possible we might see back-to-back Pagongings? Those are some of the questions that a three tribe merge has given us. It’s a completely new look for the post-merge and something that has injected a lot of intrigue into the season. Let’s hope it delivers a fun latter third of the season to send it off.