Arsenal head into Sunday’s north London derby against Tottenham Hotspur off the back of a 15-match unbeaten run, so you’d forgive them for being in a confident mood ahead of the encounter at the Emirates Stadium. Spurs haven’t won any of their last six matches, and have suffered two recent defeats as well as a number of hindrances in the form of injury and suspensions.

But should Arsenal really be confident of victory? Recent form suggests no, they shouldn’t.

If there’s one trend that can be taken out of the recent history of the north London derby, it is the rise of the underdog status. Under Arsene Wenger, Arsenal have very much been the powerhouse in the battle for north London supremacy, having never finished below Spurs in the Premier League.

That run of dominance came close to ending last season, when it took a late-season collapse from Spurs for them to concede second place to Arsenal on the final day of the season. There’s no doubting though that the gap between the two sides is as small as it’s ever been, such has been Tottenham’s development under Mauricio Pochettino.

Looking back at all of their matches since the 2010/11 season, it’s clear to see that the side higher in the Premier League table appears to struggle with the tag of being favourites for the match. In nine of the last 12 encounters between the two sides, the team higher in the table has failed to win, having lost five times and drawn the other four.

Both have experienced the boost that comes with being the underdog of the north London derby, with Arsenal gaining a win or draw when behind in the table on five occasions to Spurs’s four. These numbers are slightly offset by Arsenal’s terrible start to the 2011/12 season, as the Gunners were still in recovery mode when they met in February 2012 and promptly enjoyed a 5-2 demolition of Harry Redknapp’s side after going two goals behind.

Arsenal v Spurs: North London derby match preview

However, Arsenal can buck the trend this weekend given that Spurs are in a terrible state heading into the game. Harry Kane looks set to start, but the striker has not played for seven weeks and there has to be serious questions over his fitness and if he has been rushed back too soon to salvage Spurs’s strong start that has faded away.

They are without Moussa Sissoko – suspended after elbowing Harry Arter in the recent draw with Bournemouth – and Toby Alderweireld, who is still struggling with injury and joins Erik Lamela and Ben Davies on the sidelines.

Arsene Wenger's best moments as Arsenal manager Show all 15 1 /15 Arsene Wenger's best moments as Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger's best moments as Arsenal manager 1996 – Becomes Arsenal Manager Wenger leaves Japanese side Grampus Eight to become the Arsenal Manager. Arsene Wenger's best moments as Arsenal manager 1998 – Wins League and FA Cup double Arsenal win the league setting a new club record of 10 consecutive wins and also secure FA Cup glory beating Newcastle 2-0 in the final. Arsene Wenger's best moments as Arsenal manager 1999 - Charity Shield victory over Manchester United Arsene Wenger lifts the charity shield in 1999 after Arsenal beat Manchester United 2-1 at Wembley Stadium. The first of many highly contested games Sir Alex Ferguson's side. Getty Arsene Wenger's best moments as Arsenal manager 1999 – Signs Thierry Henry from Juventus Arsenal signed Thierry Henry from Serie A side Juventus for £11 million. Henry went on to become the club’s all-time top goalscorer with 228 goals in 377 appearances. Arsene Wenger's best moments as Arsenal manager 2002 – Second League and FA Cup double The Frenchman wins his second double with Arsenal tipping Manchester United and Liverpool to top spot in the league and defeating Chelsea 2-0 in the FA Cup final. Arsene Wenger's best moments as Arsenal manager 2002 - Community Shield added to double Arsenal add the Community Shield to their Premier League trophy and FA Cup double. Getty Arsene Wenger's best moments as Arsenal manager 2003 - OBE from the Queen and FA Cup victory Wenger’s men beat Southampton 1-0 at Cardiff’s Millennium Stadium and in the same year he given an honouree OBE by the Queen. Arsene Wenger's best moments as Arsenal manager 2004 – The ‘Invincibles’ In 2004, Arsenal were at the peak of their powers under Wenger. His philosophy of possession-based free-flowing football, combined with the talent of players such as Henry and Dennis Bergkamp, led Wenger’s men to the league title and an unbeaten 49 game streak. Arsene Wenger's best moments as Arsenal manager 2005 – FA Cup victory against Manchester United Arsenal beat Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United 5-4 on penalties for Wenger’s fourth FA Cup trophy. Arsene Wenger's best moments as Arsenal manager 2006 – Champions League final v Barcelona Wenger’s team came the closest they have ever been to European glory, narrowly losing 2-1 to Barcelona, after going a goal up through Sol Campbell in the first-half. Arsene Wenger's best moments as Arsenal manager 2014 - FA Cup victory against Hull City Having not won a piece of silverware in nine years, the pressure was certainly on for Wenger as Arsenal took on Hull City at Wembley. It only got worse for Wenger as Hull took a 2-0 lead in the opening 10 minutes. However, his team managed to fight their way back into the game and sealed victory with a dramatic 3-2 comeback in extra-time. Arsene Wenger's best moments as Arsenal manager 2014 - Another Community Shield in the bag Arsene Wenger watches his Arsenal players celebrate with the Community Shield after they beat Manchester City 3-0 at Wembley Stadium. Getty Images Arsene Wenger's best moments as Arsenal manager 2015 – FA Cup winners against Aston Villa After the drama of the previous year’s final against Hull, Wenger’s side cruised to a 4-0 victory over Aston Villa in front of a packed Wembley crowd. Arsene Wenger's best moments as Arsenal manager 2017 - The FA Cup master Having faced called for his head all season from his own fans, Wenger ended the year with his hand around that familiar trophy yet again for a record seventh time - more than any other manager. Getty Arsene Wenger's best moments as Arsenal manager 2017 - The last of his Community Shields Arsene Wenger holds the Community Shield aloft alongside Petr Cech as they celebrate their victory over Chelsea. Arsenal also beat the Blues in the 2015 Community Shield. This would be the last of Wenger's seven community shields. AFP/Getty

In Kane’s absence, Spurs have lacked goals with both Vincent Janssen and Son Heung-min failing to convince they can challenge the England striker for his place, and neither Dele Alli nor Christian Eriksen have been able to replicate their form of last season.

Arsenal, in contrast, are beginning to look like a side who believe in their own abilities. Having fought back from 2-0 down to beat Ludogorets and confirmed their progression to the Champions League last-16, Wenger’s side will be filled with confidence. The 4-3 defeat by Liverpool, their only loss of the season, feels like a distant memory, and in Olivier Giroud they have an in-form back-up striker who is challenging the current starting XI that is being led brilliantly by Alexis Sanchez.

Loading....



Mesut Özil is adding goals to his game this season and looks very much the player Arsenal believed they were signing for £42.5m, while Wenger may finally have stumbled on a defence capable of winning the Premier League.

Arsenal have their own injury problems, but they are nothing compared to Tottenham’s. Theo Walcott, Hector Bellerin and Nacho Monreal are all expected to be passed fit for the encounter, meaning their only absentees are Santo Cazorla, Danny Welbeck and Per Mertesacker, and only Cazorla would get into the current starting line-up. Granit Xhaka is also back from suspension and will give Arsenal a much-needed bite in midfield when they battle Spurs.