That’s because she’s likely to face much more intense opposition if she forges ahead to the primary. Phifer had kicked off a bid against Nolan last year before he retired, and the congressman and his allies reportedly wanted to do whatever they could to stop her from winning the party endorsement. Phifer's detractors have also worried that her opposition to local mining projects and her weak fundraising would harm Democrats' chances of holding this seat in the general election.

Phifer also ran into some static at the convention: The party’s Latino Caucus protested her candidacy at the convention, since she’d previously worked for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the federal government’s notorious deportation force better known as ICE. Nolan also endorsed Radinovich at the convention when he emerged as Phifer's only remaining opponent, though he said afterwards that he wouldn’t support anyone in the primary until the field becomes clear.

Republicans, meanwhile, have consolidated behind St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber in this rural seat in the northeastern part of the state, which swung from 52-46 Obama to 54-39 Trump. While some local Democrats hoped that one candidate could win the party endorsement and the others would just decide not to run in the primary, that's not happening. However, it's anyone's guess who will be favored in August.

Despite her success with activists, Phifer raised only $47,000 during the first three months of the year and ended March with $19,000 in the bank, so if she does stay in the race, she could have a tough time getting her message out to a larger electorate. However, Phifer did make a name for herself as the candidate most opposed to mining projects, which could help her stand out in a jammed race.

The other Democratic hopefuls only got into the race after Nolan announced he would retire in mid-February, so they haven't yet had a full quarter to raise money. In his limited time in the race, Metsa outraised the field with $133,000, and also had the most in the bank, $117,000. Radinovich took in $108,000 during this period and had $95,000 cash-on-hand. Lee took in just $29,000 for the quarter and had only $16,000 on-hand, though her long career on TV may afford her a measure of name-recognition. Kennedy, who raised just $6,000, and ended with less than $3,000 left over. For his part, Stauber raised $274,000 and ended March with $293,000 on-hand. (Update: This post incorrectly had Kennedy raising $62,000 and holding $27,000 on-hand.)