In a crowded field that is still receiving new entries, the only thing baked into the primary is that Democrats really, really, really want to win in 2020.

It may sound laughable to some, but I’m going to make a case for Andrew Yang’s electability. Yes, he has consistently polled 6th nationally according to RCP at around 3% and between 5th-8th in most state polls so a lot of things need to change between now and voting.

But first, I want to briefly re-visit the ‘Turn Out Your Base’ vs. ‘Win Over Swing Voters’ argument (I personally believe both are equally important). Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report had this recent tweet/article that caught my eye:

x Dem gains continue to be concentrated among white voters w/ college degrees.



But of the 12 places where college grads make up the highest % of eligible white voters - CA, CO, CT, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY and VA - *zero* are poised to decide the 2020 presidential race. pic.twitter.com/sm4JGvT3zA — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 27, 2019

Democrats are making big gains in the suburbs. Here's why that may not be enough to beat Trump.

Wasserman’s reporting reminded me of this NPR article on Sanders-Trump (but also Kasich-Clinton, Rubio-Clinton, Clinton-McCain, and McCain-Obama) voters:

x However, also worth noting partisanship of these voters. This chart shows Bernie -> Trump voters are much less likely to be Dems 6/n pic.twitter.com/WuxF53hTeF — Brian Schaffner (@b_schaffner) August 23, 2017

Roughly 1 in 10 Bernie 2016 primary voters ultimately voted for Trump in the general. Of those crossover voters:

Roughly 10% identified as a strong Democrat

Roughly 35% identified as a weak/lean Democrat

Roughly 25% identified as Independent

Roughly 30% identified as lean/weak/strong Republican

Overall, they had a 20% approval rating for Obama

Additionally, the article discussed these other crossover trends:

Schaffner tells NPR that around 12 percent of Republican primary voters (including 34 percent of Ohio Gov. John Kasich voters and 11 percent of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio voters) ended up voting for Clinton.

And according to one 2008 study, around 25 percent of Clinton primary voters in that election ended up voting for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in the general.

one 2008 study, In addition, the data showed 13 percent of McCain primary voters ended up voting for Obama, and 9 percent of Obama voters ended up voting for McCain.

Overall:

As of September 2019, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrat, 29% identified as Republican, and 38% as Independent.[3] Additionally, polling showed that 49% are either "Democrats or Democratic leaners" and 44% are either "Republicans or Republican leaners" when Independents are asked "do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"[3]

There are plenty of swing voters out there, both to hold onto, as well as potentially win over. And according to the 12/4-12/5 Reuters/Ipsos national poll (486 Dem, 110 Ind), while 16% of Democrats do not have a primary preference yet, 41% of Independents are undecided.

#BetOnYang: Possible Crossover Support for Yang

According to a recent College Pulse/Chegg weekly tracker (which surveys over 1,500 full-time and part-time students attending two and four-year colleges or universities across the United States), Yang is 3rd place nationally with 11% support but leads the Democratic field in the following crossover metric:

18% of self-identified Republican college students say they would vote for Yang over Trump (highest in the field)

of self-identified Republican college students say they would vote for Yang over Trump (highest in the field) Biden would get 10% of the self-identified Republican vote and everybody else is in the single digits.

of the self-identified Republican vote and everybody else is in the single digits. 63% of self-identified Independent college students would vote for Yang over Trump (College Pulse doesn’t release the full data for non-subscribers so I’m going by the interview that’s posted above).

Additionally, Yang’s background as a non-politician and a businessman (which are major net negatives for the Daily Kos community) are net positives for Republicans and Independents students. And Yang is not identified with a socialist label by these Independent and Republican students, which is a strong net negative for members of these affiliations.

Overall, 98% of self-identified Democratic college students indicated that they will vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is. But only 75% of self-identified Republican college students said they are definitely voting Trump regardless of his opposition.

Also, 70% Republican students said that Trump can still do something to lose their support so these votes may potentially be up for grabs, even if it’s a long-shot. And according to this poll, Yang may be best positioned to grab whatever cross-over college voters are there for the taking, despite his low name recognition.

Yang’s coalition in this sample of college students is also very diverse, which obviously helps in a general election and could potentially generalize when scaled up:

Yang has 27% of the overall Asian vote, 11% black, 10% white, 9% Hispanic, and 9% multiracial.

Yang has 12% of the overall heterosexual vote and 9% LGBTQIA.

Yang has 16% of the overall male vote, 8% female, and 10% non-binary.

Yang has 12% support from students who do not receive financial aid and 11% who receive financial aid.

Winning over Independents and maybe even some Republicans?

I compiled the following tables based on the 11/24-11/26 national weekly Economist/YouGov poll, which sampled 1,497 voters (34% Democrats, 27% Republican, 38% Independent). Respondents were asked about favorability for each Democratic nominee (Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, Very Unfavorable, Don’t Know) so I’ve summed the net favorable and net unfavorables:

Independent Voters

candidate net favorable net unfavorabLe don’t know sanders 34 44 22 Biden 29 48 23 warren 25 45 29 yang 25 31 44 harris 22 45 34 buttigieg 21 39 39 klobuchar 17 37 46

If we exclude those who don’t know and calculate the ratio between net favorable to net unfavorable, we get the following:

candidate favorable ratio yang 44.5% sanders 43.5% biden 37.5% warren 35.5% buttigieg 35% harris 33% klobuchar 31.5%

Republican Voters

candidate net favorable net unfavorable don’t know biden 16 76 9 yang 15 51 34 sanders 14 78 8 buttigieg 13 59 28 harris 13 71 17 warren 13 77 11 klobuchar 11 55 34

Again, if we exclude those who don’t know and calculate the ratio between net favorable to net unfavorable, we get the following:

candidate favorable ratio yang 22.5% buttigieg 18% sanders 18% harris 18% biden 17% klobuchar 16.5% warren 14%

Yang’s Potential Crossover Support in Swing States:

There isn’t a ton of quality polling in most of these states but the preliminary picture suggests that Yang generally has equal or greater support from self-identified Independents than from voters who already strongly identify as Democrats.

Granted, some of these stats are drawing from very small sub-samples but I still think this points to broader crossover trends that are reflected anecdotally in terms of who is supporting Yang on social media. Additionally, most polls also have Yang with more support from moderate Democrats than Democrats who identify as very liberal.

Iowa

There have only been 2 Trump vs. Yang head-to-head polls that I know of, both by Emerson in New Hampshire.

In their 9/6-9/8 poll, Yang was 3% overall but would beat Trump 54 to 46 with a 2.9% MoE (for other candidates, Biden was +10, Sanders was +5, Harris was +2, and Warren was -2)

with a 2.9% MoE (for other candidates, Biden was +10, Sanders was +5, Harris was +2, and Warren was -2) In their 11/22-11/26 poll, Yang was 5% but loses to Trump 51 to 49 with a 3.8% MoE (for other candidates, Buttigieg was +5, Biden was +4, Sanders was +4, and Warren was also -2)

Lastly, there are also positive signs that Yang’s favorability is trending in positive directions. From September to late November in the California UC Berkeley/IGS poll, Yang’s favorabiity among likely Democratic voters grew from 27% to 38% (+9) while his unfavorability actually dropped from 22% to 14% (-8), which shows that people tuning in like what they find and are seriously considering Yang’s candidacy. No other candidate in this poll significantly increased their favorability while also simultaneously decreased their unfavorability in any of the June → September → November editions.

Takeaways:

Whoever wins the nomination will likely get near-full support from self-identified Democrats.

If it’s Yang, perhaps a small number may either stay home or vote 3rd party. But the majority will still vote Blue no matter what, even if Yang is near the bottom of preferred candidate list.

Turning out the vote may hit ceiling effects as the greatest growth since 2016 has been in already solidly Blue states.

Yang’s favorability numbers among Independents and Republicans compares well to others in the field, despite much lower name recognition. In theory, as Yang’s campaign grows, his crossover favorability will also grow, which may lead to actual votes during a general election.

If an undecided voter already has a negative impression of a candidate, it likely takes much more effort to swing that impression in the right direction and onto a ballot.

Purely anecdotal but in the current Yang coalition, there is plenty of support from traditional Republicans, true Independents, Libertarians, and people who have been politically disengaged or have never voted. I believe this can scale up in massive ways, and I've written a number of diaries, including ones that highlight Yang's crossover support on social media.

Ultimately, if one is to look at each candidate objectively as the Democratic nominee, whose candidacy, platform, and coalition is most and least poised to win enough of the electoral college in the key swing states since Gallup believes that 18% of voters lean Democrat while 14% lean Republican?

I believe that Andrew Yang would do significantly better in this metric than what conventional wisdom currently suggests and could represent