The attention is about to shift in a major way to blue state Republicans. | AP Photos GOP Senate? It may be short-lived

Senate Democrats have long awaited the 2010 tea party wave to splash back on Republicans during the 2016 election cycle.

That moment is almost here.


After two years of obsessive focus on the teetering reelection prospects of red-state Democrats, the attention is about to shift in a major way to blue-state Republicans. Six of them who rode anti-Obama sentiment to office in 2010 are up in two years, and they’ll face the dual challenge of a more diverse electorate and potentially Hillary Clinton atop the Democratic ticket.

The leftward-tilting map means a GOP-controlled Senate could be short-lived if the party prevails on Tuesday. Even in the best-case scenario for the party, a Republican majority is certain to be slim.

( POLITICO's 2014 race ratings)

A half-dozen first-term Republicans are up for reelection in states President Barack Obama won in both 2008 and 2012: Mark Kirk of Illinois, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Rob Portman of Ohio, Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire and Marco Rubio of Florida. Obama also twice carried Sen. Chuck Grassley’s Iowa, but the longtime incumbent would be much tougher to dislodge.

Add it all up and it’s basically the mirror image of 2014.

“We shift the ground from where it was this time — seven Democrats were running in states that Obama didn’t carry — to an environment where seven Republicans are running in states that Obama did carry,” said Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri, a member of GOP leadership up for reelection in 2016.

Republicans are trying to look at the bright side of the intimidating terrain. If the GOP proves itself a responsible steward of Congress over the next two years, Republicans believe voters will be less inclined to oust vulnerable GOP incumbents.

( WATCH: Driving the Election Day: Colorado)

“If there’s an advantage to Republicans in the 2016 campaign … it’s the chance that you had to finally make the case,” said Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran, the current National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman.

Democrats are also eyeing incumbents in states that Obama won in 2008 but lost four years later: Sen. Dan Coats of Indiana and Sen. Richard Burr of North Carolina, both of whom have under $800,000 on hand. Meanwhile, potential primary challenges could loom for Sens. John McCain of Arizona and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — plus Blunt, Moran and South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a GOP leader, depending on the mood of conservative insurgents.

With House Republicans expected to pad their majority this November and possibly put the chamber out of reach in 2016, the battle for the Senate is expected to be the main undercard to the presidential election. And Senate Democratic insiders couldn’t be more excited for it, unable to recall a more favorable climate.

( Full 2014 election results)

“They start from a defensive crouch,” said one Senate Democratic aide of the Republicans. “It’s very unlikely that if they get a majority it will last longer than two years.”

There are select pick-up opportunities for Republicans, too. The biggest potential trophy is Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who is up for reelection in Nevada. One formidable potential challenger is Gov. Brian Sandoval, a popular moderate governor. Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) is the other obvious target for the GOP.

But for now, those are minor worries for Democrats.

( From POLITICO Magazine: Bet on a GOP Senate majority)

Both parties separate the blue-state GOP pack into two tiers of vulnerability. At the top of Democrats’ hit list and Republicans’ fears are the conservative Toomey and Johnson and the moderate Kirk. Their home states haven’t gone for Republican presidential candidates since the ’80s.

“You have to say that Toomey and Ron Johnson will have very competitive races,” said Charlie Black, an informal adviser to McCain. “Mark Kirk … won in that state before. He can again, [but] he’ll be the underdog.”

Names of several potential challengers are already being floated, according to party insiders. Democratic state Attorney General Lisa Madigan has been mentioned as a candidate in Illinois. Former Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) could opt for a rematch against Johnson. And two names have surfaced in Pennsylvania: Attorney General Kathleen Kane and former Rep. Joe Sestak (D), who’s raising money for a rematch of his 2010 loss.

Toomey’s war chest sits at $5.4 million in cash at the end of September, Kirk has $1.5 million and Johnson has $669,000. Each spent more than $14 million in 2010, according to OpenSecrets.

“They’re not going to be caught by surprise,” said Kevin Madden, a former top campaign hand for Mitt Romney. “Those are folks that were counted as underdogs when they won.”

Toomey, a former leader of the Club for Growth, has hewed to his fiscal conservatism but shown flashes of centrism, working on gun background checks with Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and supporting a bill that would curb workforce gender discrimination. Johnson backed a two-year bipartisan budget deal but has rarely moderated his politics, which could bring support from conservative outside groups.

Kirk has maintained his socially moderate views and emerged as a strong hawkish voice for Republicans.

“He has developed a brand in Illinois,” said Danny Diaz, a consultant working in Illinois politics. “Republicans kind of get in trouble, and they’re more susceptible in a bad environment when they haven’t distinguished themselves.”

Portman, Ayotte and Rubio’s seats represent a tier of more challenging potential targets.

Portman, who is mulling over a bid for the White House, has $5.5 million in his campaign account. It’s unclear if there’s a serious candidate awaiting him after the Democrats’ disastrous governor’s race. Portman is leaning toward running for reelection and expects the state’s social conservatives to attack him for supporting same-sex message, said a source close to him, though his pragmatism on social issues and unemployment insurance might help him with the general electorate.

Democrats also believe they can compete in Florida, whether for an open seat or against Rubio if he passes on a national bid — a notion scoffed at by Republicans. Should he decide to remain in the Senate, Rubio’s work on immigration reform may be used against him in a primary but could pay big dividends in a general election.

Democrats are floating Gov. Maggie Hassan to take on Ayotte, a GOP hawk but occasional deal maker who voted for immigration reform and pointedly voted against Toomey’s background check measure. Hassan’s spokesman said she “loves serving as governor” and is committed to seeking reelection in 2016.

Ayotte said she intends to be right in the middle of the Senate’s legislative agenda the next two years.

“My approach will be the same — continuing to work across the aisle to find solutions to the many challenges facing our country,” Ayotte said in an email.

It’s an open question whether endangered incumbents move toward the middle or tack right ahead of primary season — but there’s wide agreement that Democrats will seek to limit the accomplishments of vulnerable Republican senators, particularly if Democrats lose the Senate this year.

There are sure to be surprise retirements as well. Sources in both parties have speculated that Coats might retire given his lackluster fundraising and his roundabout path back to the Senate: After serving until 1999, Coats became a lobbyist, then jumped back in 2010 to ride the wave to an easy reelection. But a spokesman said “he remains fully prepared to run.”

Murkowski and McCain may face conservative challengers if the anti-incumbent mood that nearly ousted Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) this year is any indication. Murkowski, an avowed centrist who lost her primary in 2010 but won a write-in campaign, said she will run in 2016 as a Republican.

McCain has been fundraising furiously, clocking nearly $600,000 in the most recent quarter, and has $1.5 million on hand. Democrats will make a big play for his seat if he retires — but if he doesn’t the biggest worry is another challenge from the right, which he spent $20 million to beat back in 2010. The Arizona GOP censured McCain after taking a number of party-bucking votes in the past two years, from immigration reform to background checks.

Republicans are far less worried about primary challenges than in previous years. But Moran, Blunt and Thune could present tempting targets to right-wing challengers, simply because of their roles in Washington.

One “thing that Republicans did successfully this cycle is show that we can take primary challenges head on, and I expect that if there are primary challenges this cycle, our incumbents will be very aggressive,” said one top strategist.

Moran’s NRSC has propped up a lackluster reelection bid by Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kansas), aggravating some conservatives, though he has $1 million on hand and no clear challenger. Blunt has boosted his cash on hand from $180,000 last spring to nearly $1.8 million this fall, raising nearly $600,000 in the latest quarter.

“I don’t worry about it a lot,” Blunt said of 2016. “I work really hard.”