Personal transportation is on the verge of disruption from several different directions: New technology is reducing the number of accidents; data makes it easier to track driver behavior; ride-sharing is replacing car ownership.

Each of these trends could dent the global auto insurance industry. As they begin to converge, the damage could be irreparable. In mature markets, auto insurance could drop by as much as 80% by 2040, according to a recent Blue Paper report from Morgan Stanley Research and Boston Consulting Group (BCG), "Motor Insurance 2.0." The report, which includes findings from a proprietary global consumer survey and market modelling, looks at how transportation is changing, how the insurance industry is trying to reposition, and what it mean for investors, related sectors, policy makers, and consumers.

“Although certain insurers are anticipating change, we think that the industry as a whole is underestimating the extent and timing of disruption," says Jon Hocking, Morgan Stanley's European insurance analyst and lead author of the report. “A significant part of the $200 billion market value of the global motor insurance industry is at risk."