The FIVB Tokyo Beach Volleyball Qualification Tournament gets started today in Haiyang, China. Four days from now, two men’s teams and two women’s teams will book their places a place for their countries at the Tokyo games. This is a very big deal, but it doesn’t have nearly the buzz that the FIVB envisioned when they came up with the idea.

For more information on the tournament format, check out this post in the 5 paths to Tokyo series from last march. Five Paths to Tokyo – Part 2 – Olympic Qualification Tournament

To play or not to play

Countries with the top 15 teams in the July 16th World rankings were invited to join hosts China in this tournament. What was intended to be an amazing slugfest of top talent fighting for Tokyo has turned out to be something slightly less. Strategic calculations came into play for some federations and the USA decided to ignore the invitation completely. Even so, this is going to be a great week of volleyball on the sand in China.

Hendrick Mol and Matias Bernsten at the World Tour Finals in Rome. Norway hope to use the Olympic Qualification Tournament to sneak a second Mol into Tokyo. Photo by FIVB.

There is logic to the federations decisions, but time will tell if trying to game the system will cost countries a coveted spot in Tokyo.

What federations had to consider

When the invitations for FIVB Tokyo Beach Volleyball Qualification Tournament were sent out, not every top team was eager to accept. And even if teams had been interested in playing, some federations decided to send their second or even third best teams instead.

Consider these two facts:

Countries can send a maximum of two teams to Tokyo. Players can only earn one spot for their country.

If a federation has a team that is well placed in the Olympic rankings and likely to qualify through the Olympic rankings (pathway number three), entering them in this event doesn’t add anything to their Olympic roster. Take a country like Norway as an example. It would make no sense to send Anders Mol and Christian Sorum to China for this weeks tournament. Mol and Sorum are going to play in Tokyo for sure. There is no possible way they will fall out of the top 15 of the Olympic rankings. If they went to Haiyang and won a spot, it would gain them and the Norway federation nothing. So, Norway sent Anders’s brother Hendrick and his partner Mathias Bernsten. If they pull off a few upsets and make it into the top 2, Norway suddenly has two spots in Tokyo next summer.

These kinds of decisions had to be made by every federation. As a result, not all of the world’s top teams are playing this week. That may make Haiyang a huge opportunity for the more savey federations in the beach volleyball community.

Differing approaches

Lets have a look at the tactics that federations chose for the FIVB Tokyo Beach Volleyball Qualification Tournament.

Playing it straight

Some countries elected to send teams that are comfortably inside the top 15. They are sending their best and attempting to lock down Olympic places. The Netherlands (Alexander Brouwer & Robert Meeuwsen), Spain (Adrian Gavira & Pablo Herrera) and Italy (Daniele Lupo & Paolo Nicolai) fall into this category on the men’s side. It is very unlikely that these pairs will slip out of the top 15, so earning an Olympic place here doesn’t add much value to their Olympic team. In the case of Spain, there isn’t a viable second team, but for the Netherlands, Christiaan Varenhorst & Steven van de Velde are back in 30th place but have the potential to take a top two spot in a depleted field like this one. Italy also may have been better off by sending 24th ranked Enrico Rossi & Adrian Carambula.

Steven van de Velde and Christiaan Varenhorst won their difficult pool in Rome. They may have been a better choice for the Netherlands in Haiyang. Photo by FIVB.

On the women’s side, the teams in the seventh to fifteenth place of the current Olympic Qualifying status are much more closely bunched so these moves weren’t as obvious.

Trying to maximize places

Like Norway, other countries left their top teams at home in an attempt to sneak an extra team into Tokyo. Poland sent Piotr Kantor & Bartosz Losiak (ranked 22nd) instead of their top team Michal Bryl & Grzegorz Fijalek (ranked 6th). Germany sent Nils Ehlers & Lars Flüggen (ranked 23rd) instead of fifth ranked Julius Thole & Clemens Wickler. If these countries can get their second teams in through this tournament and their first place teams in through the rankings, they will have out maneuvered other countries that failed to see the opportunity this tournament presented.

The German women also played this game by sending 30th ranked Sandra Ittlinger & Chantal Laboureur. However, if Ittlinger and Laboureur manage to make the top two, it will create a real headache for the German federation. That’s because they may get two teams into the top 15. If Karla Borger & Julia Sude, Laura Ludwig & Margareta Kozuch and Sandra Ittlinger & Chantal Laboureur all have earned places in Tokyo, who are they going to leave out?

Chantal Laboureur and Sandra Ittlinger beat the Italian in Roman group play and like their chances of finishing in the top two this week. If they do, there will be a selection headache for the German federation. Photo by FIVB.

Other countries have very equal women’s teams, so it isn’t clear which will end up on top of the Olympic rankings. The Netherlands (Sanne Keizer & Madelein Meppelink and Joy Stubbe & Marleen van Lersel) and Switzerland (Nina Betschart & Tanja Huberli and Joana Heidrich & Anouk Verge-Depre) are both in this category. The Dutch decided to send their slightly higher placed team while the Swiss sent the one that is marginally behind.

Japan is unique in that they have a guaranteed place as the Olympic hosts. If they win a top two spot this week, they will get two teams in the Olympics. For that reason they sent their best women’s pair Miki Ishii & Megumi Murakami to try to get the job done.

Seizing the opportunity

Some countries have teams fighting for an Olympic spot and would love to jump to the front of the line. Women’s teams from Austria, Australia, Czech Republic, Finland and Poland are all outside of the top 15 but have a chance to qualify this week. For them this tournament represents an amazing opportunity. Latvia and China are in the top 15 now, but are likely to face tough challenges in the coming months to retain their places. If they could earn spots in Tokyo this week, the pressure would be off.

Men from Switzerland, Austria, and China are hoping to to jump past teams in the top 15. Canada and Chile may still make it through the Olympic rankings but their positions are extremely precarious, so they want to finish in the top two in China.

What’s in it for me?

I wonder what Brazil’s Andre Loyola & George Wanderley and Maria Antonelli & Carol Salgado are thinking. They are playing in Haiyang this week, but if they win will the Brazilian federation select them for Tokyo? Remember that the top two teams earn a place for their federation, not for themselves. Would Brazil really tell Evandro and Bruno or Alison and Alvaro they can’t go to the Olympics because Andre and George won this tournament? For the women its the same. Ana Patricia and Rebecca have lead the Olympic rankings race from the start and Agatha and Duda are still my favorites for Tokyo gold next summer. As harsh as this may sound, if Brazil earns men’s or women’s spots through this event, I don’t expect these teams to represent their country in Tokyo.

Carol and battles Liliana Fernandez of Spain at the World Tour Finals. Carol and Maria are among the best in the world but aren’t in the Brazilian top 2. How will a win in China affect their Olympic dreams? Photo by FIVB.

What were they thinking?

The Russian women made a real head scratcher of a decision. Their best team, Svetlana Kholomina & Nadezda Makroguzova, is 22nd in the Olympic rankings. But rather than sending them or their second team or even their third team, they sent 46th ranked teenagers Bocharova & Voronina. Saying these two are a long shot to finish in the top two is a huge understatement. The odds of Kholomina and Makroguzova overtaking enough teams in the rankings are also slim. Hmm, like I said, a head scratcher.

American absence

The Americans didn’t send a men’s or women’s team to this tournament. It must have been too hard for USAVB to convince anyone to travel to China this week. There is a season ending AVP tournament in Hawaii this weekend. American teams can earn prize money that isn’t available in China and play in beautiful Hawaii. What would you choose? That, coupled with the fact that qualifying in this tournament only earns a Tokyo birth for the country and not necessarily for the team made this tournament very unattractive for any American teams.

The American women are dominating this quad and are certain to get two teams to Tokyo. The same can’t be said for the men. Tri Bourne and Trevor Crabb are in the top 15 today but Nick Lucena & Phil Dalhausser and Taylor Crabb & Jake Gibb have been inconsistent on the world tour. The latter teams have only played in 10 events and will likely move into the top 15 before June. There is no guarantee though because shockingly the top three American teams only had two podium finishes (in a 3 and 4 star) this year and no golds. Could America really fail to send two men’s teams? No, they’ll get two teams there one way or another, even without this week’s tournament.

Whether the best teams in the world are in China this week or not, the fact remains, two men’s and two women’s places at the Tokyo Olympics will be awarded on Sunday. That will bring out the best in the teams that are playing and make this tournament a lot of fun to follow.