Hmm. The conventional wisdom on Florida’s governor’s race is that incumbent Republican Rick Scott is in deep trouble.

Then again, maybe not:

Scott leads [Republican-turned Democrat Charlie] Crist 45 percent to 44 percent, in a new Voter Survey Service poll, commissioned by Sunshine State News. While Scott’s lead is within the margin of error, the poll reveals the Republican holds an important 5 point lead over Crist among Floridians more likely to cast votes in the November election.

This is the first poll showing Scott ahead . . . so far this cycle.