October 22, 2018 - Nelson Holds Lead In Florida Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Hurricane Does Not Lift Scott Or Trump

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Despite his exposure in the wake of Hurricane Michael, Florida Gov. Rick Scott, the Republican challenger in the U.S. Senate race, gains virtually no ground on Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson, getting 46 percent of likely voters to Sen. Nelson's 52 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.





This compares to a 53 - 46 percent likely voter lead for Sen. Nelson in a September 25 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll.





Today, women, black, Hispanic and independent voters are the main drivers of Nelson's lead:

Women back the Democrat 59 - 39 percent, as men back Scott 54 - 44 percent;

White voters back Scott 53 - 44 percent. Nelson leads 94 - 3 percent among black voters and 59 - 39 percent among Hispanic voters;

Nelson leads 93 - 6 percent among Democrats and 60 - 38 percent among independent voters. Republicans back Scott 89 - 9 percent.

Only 2 percent of Florida likely voters remain undecided and 4 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind in the next 15 days.





"The Florida race is one of a handful of contests around the country that will decide control of the U.S. Senate. Sen. Bill Nelson and Gov. Rick Scott have spent so many millions of dollars on television ads it is almost impossible to avoid seeing them," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.





"At this point, Sen. Nelson's six-point overall lead is built on his large margin among independent voters, 60 - 38 percent. If that margin holds up, the senator will be difficult to beat. Moreover, Sen. Nelson's 20-point advantage among women is twice Gov. Scott's 10-point edge among men."





"Nelson is just better liked. Florida likely voters view him favorably by 10 percentage points, and see Gov. Scott unfavorably by five points," Brown added.





Florida likely voters give Nelson a 51 - 41 percent favorability rating.





Scott gets a negative 45 - 50 percent favorability rating, virtually unchanged from his negative 46 - 51 percent rating September 25.





Florida likely voters give President Donald Trump a negative 46 - 51 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 44 - 54 percent job approval rating September 25.





From October 17 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,161 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect.





The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.





Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll





Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.





4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Nelson the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Bill Nelson the Democrat or more toward Rick Scott the Republican?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Nelson 52% 9% 93% 60% 44% 59% 47% 42% Scott 46 89 6 38 54 39 50 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - 1 - 1 - DK/NA 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Nelson 36% 51% 44% 94% 59% Scott 62 46 53 3 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - - DK/NA 1 2 2 3 2 WHITE................... COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE Men Wom Men Wom Nelson 38% 54% 35% 49% Scott 60 42 63 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - DK/NA 1 3 1 1 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Nelson 8% 10% 91% 94% 52% 68% Scott 89 89 8 4 46 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - 1 - DK/NA 1 1 1 2 1 2 AREA............................. North/ Bay Cen- South South Panhdl Area tral West East Nelson 38% 53% 53% 43% 61% Scott 59 45 46 54 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 DK/NA 3 2 - 2 4

4a. (If candidate chosen q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q4.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q4 Tot Nelson Scott Mind made up 96% 96% 96% Might change 4 3 4 DK/NA - - 1

5. Is your opinion of Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 51% 13% 88% 58% 43% 58% 49% 40% Unfavorable 41 78 6 34 49 34 43 54 Hvn't hrd enough 6 7 5 6 6 7 6 4 REFUSED 2 2 - 2 2 2 2 2 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 38% 51% 45% 89% 57% Unfavorable 55 42 48 3 33 Hvn't hrd enough 6 5 5 8 10 REFUSED 2 3 2 - - WHITE................... COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE Men Wom Men Wom Favorable 40% 56% 36% 45% Unfavorable 51 36 58 49 Hvn't hrd enough 7 6 4 4 REFUSED 1 2 2 3 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Favorable 10% 16% 86% 90% 52% 64% Unfavorable 81 74 10 4 40 29 Hvn't hrd enough 6 8 4 6 7 5 REFUSED 2 3 - - 1 2 AREA............................. North/ Bay Cen- South South Panhdl Area tral West East Favorable 40% 50% 53% 40% 62% Unfavorable 51 42 39 52 31 Hvn't hrd enough 5 8 6 7 6 REFUSED 3 1 2 2 2

6. Is your opinion of Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 45% 85% 7% 37% 52% 38% 49% 53% Unfavorable 50 11 87 60 43 57 47 44 Hvn't hrd enough 4 3 5 2 3 4 3 2 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 - WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 58% 45% 51% 6% 38% Unfavorable 38 52 46 79 55 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 2 13 6 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 1 WHITE................... COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE Men Wom Men Wom Favorable 58% 41% 58% 48% Unfavorable 36 55 40 49 Hvn't hrd enough 2 3 2 1 REFUSED 3 1 - 1 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Favorable 84% 85% 12% 5% 42% 32% Unfavorable 12 11 83 89 53 67 Hvn't hrd enough 2 4 4 6 3 2 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 2 - AREA............................. North/ Bay Cen- South South Panhdl Area tral West East Favorable 54% 43% 44% 54% 36% Unfavorable 40 52 52 42 57 Hvn't hrd enough 4 3 4 4 5 REFUSED 2 1 - 1 2

7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?