This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over three nights last week, April 21-23, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross section of 583 electors.

Former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull is again clearly preferred as Liberal Leader by 38% of electors (up 2% since January 12-13, 2015) well ahead of Deputy Leader Julie Bishop 27% (up 1%) and Prime Minister Tony Abbott 12% (down 2%). This is a record low level of support for Abbott since he became Liberal Leader in December 2009. No other candidate has more than 5% support.

L-NP voters also prefer Turnbull as Liberal Party Leader 30% (up 4%), just ahead of Prime Minister Tony Abbott 25% (down 5%) and Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop (25%, down 3%). Treasurer Joe Hockey has lost significant support since delivering the 2014 Federal Budget and is now at only 6% (up 2%).

Deputy ALP Leader Tanya Plibersek 23% (up 5%) of electors is now the preferred Labor Leader ahead of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 21% (down 4%) with both well ahead of Shadow Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Anthony Albanese 13% (up 3%) and former Treasurer Wayne Swan 10% (unchanged).

Tanya Plibersek 30% (up 9%) is now also preferred amongst ALP supporters ahead of Bill Shorten 26% (down 9%) for the first time and also Wayne Swan 9% (down 3%) and Anthony Albanese 11% (up 3%).

If Mr Abbott were to resign as Prime Minister tomorrow, it would appear to be a two-horse race between Malcolm Turnbull 40% (up 2%) and Julie Bishop 30% (down 2%). Their support is more evenly matched amongst L-NP voters with Turnbull (34%) narrowly preferred to Bishop (32%).

If Labor Leader Bill Shorten were to resign for any reason, Deputy ALP Leader Tanya Plibersek 26% (up 5%) is clearly preferred as ALP Leader ahead of Shadow Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Anthony Albanese 16% (up 2%) and former Treasurer Wayne Swan 15% (down 1%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Prime Minister Tony Abbott is supported by only 12% (down 2% since January) of Australian electors as the best person to lead the Federal Liberal Party, well behind both former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull 38% (up 2%) and Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop 27% (up 1%). This is the lowest level of support for Abbott since assuming the leadership of the Liberal Party in December 2009. “Even amongst L-NP supporters – who have traditionally favoured Abbott over both Turnbull and Bishop – Turnbull has now gained the most support as the preferred Liberal Party Leader 30% (up 4%) equally ahead of both Abbott 25% (down 5%) and Bishop 25% (down 3%). “Worryingly for Opposition Leader Bill Shorten he has now slipped behind Deputy ALP Leader Tanya Plibersek as the preferred ALP Leader with Plibersek 23% (up 5%) cf. Shorten 21% (down 4%). This is the first time Plibersek has been preferred to Shorten since he became ALP Leader after the last Federal Election. Both are well clear of former leadership rival Anthony Albanese 13% (up 3%) and former Treasurer Wayne Swan 10% (unchanged). However, whilst Abbott can be voted out of the leadership by the Liberal Party room – Shorten can’t be removed before the next election given the new rules surrounding a change of leadership adopted by the Federal ALP. "As Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan Research, will say tomorrow at Roy Morgan's State of the Nation - Focus on Politics:

'The Coalition's improvement in the last few months has reversed the surge to the Opposition seen in January when leadership speculation surrounding Abbott dented Government support. One of the oldest political maxims is - 'Disunity is Death' - this is something we see time and time again when parties are more concerned with their own leadership than the welfare of the nation they are supposed to represent."

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over three nights last week, April 21-23, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross section of 583 electors.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).



Preferred Coalition Leader

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”

Tony Abbott as Prime Minister Analysis by Federal Voting Intention June 3-5,

2014 Sep 30-Oct 2,

2014 Jan 12-13,

2015 April 21-23,

2015 L-NP ALP Greens Ind/

Other % % % % % % % % Turnbull 44 38 36 38 30 47 54 32 J. Bishop 7 16 26 27 25 29 28 29 Abbott 15 19 14 12 25 3 0 4 Morrison 2 2 2 5 8 2 0 6 Hockey 11 6 4 5 6 5 0 2 Joyce 5 3 4 3 2 3 2 8 Pyne 1 1 2 2 2 0 7 1 Robb 2 * * * * * 0 0 Someone else 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 2 Can’t say 12 14 11 7 1 11 9 16 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%.





Preferred Coalition Leader other than Tony Abbott

Electors who preferred Tony Abbott were then asked:

“Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Andrew Robb, Christopher Pyne, Barnaby Joyce & Scott Morrison?”

The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Tony Abbott.

Tony Abbott as Prime Minister Analysis by Federal Voting Intention June 3-5,

2014 Sep 30-Oct 2,

2014 Jan 12-13,

2015 April 21-23,

2015 L-NP ALP Greens Ind/

Other % % % % % % % % Turnbull 48 42 38 40 34 48 54 32 J. Bishop 9 23 32 30 32 30 28 29 Morrison 3 3 3 7 13 2 0 6 Hockey 15 9 6 6 8 6 0 4 Joyce 6 4 4 4 5 3 2 10 Pyne 1 2 3 2 2 0 7 1 Robb 2 * * 1 * 1 0 0 Someone else 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 2 Can’t say 15 16 13 9 5 10 9 16 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%.





Preferred Labor Leader

Electors were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”

Prime Minister Tony Abbott Analysis by Federal Voting Intention June 3-5,

2014 Sep 30-Oct 2,

2014 Jan 12-13,

2015 April 21-23,

2015 L-NP ALP Greens Ind/

Other % % % % % % % % Plibersek 16 18 18 23 15 30 39 20 Shorten 22 21 25 21 22 26 15 11 Albanese 15 15 10 13 15 11 17 12 Swan 9 10 10 10 11 9 4 19 Bowen 5 6 6 5 7 6 1 5 Macklin 5 4 5 4 4 5 5 4 Burke 3 3 5 4 4 3 5 3 Someone else 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 2 Can’t say 23 21 19 19 21 10 14 24 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100





Preferred Labor Leader other than Bill Shorten

Electors who preferred Bill Shorten as ALP Leader were then asked:

“Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Anthony Albanese, Wayne Swan, Jenny Macklin, Chris Bowen, Tanya Plibersek or Tony Burke?”

The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Bill Shorten.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott Analysis by Federal Voting Intention June 3-5,

2014 Sep 30-Oct 2,

2014 Jan 12-13,

2015 April 21-22,

2015 L-NP ALP Greens Ind/

Other % % % % % % % % Plibersek 21 21 21 26 17 35 43 25 Swan 13 14 16 15 18 13 9 19 Albanese 19 19 14 16 16 17 19 14 Bowen 7 8 9 8 11 8 1 5 Macklin 7 5 7 6 4 7 8 4 Burke 5 3 7 5 5 5 5 3 Someone else 2 2 2 1 2 * 5 3 Can’t say 26 28 24 23 28 14 16 29 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100





For further information:

Contact Office Mobile Gary Morgan: +61 3 9224 5213 +61 411 129 094 Michele Levine: +61 3 9224 5215 +61 411 129 093





The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.