Toronto’s detached real estate market continued to get colder last month. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers show prices stalled in December. The lack of price movement was due to a multi-year low for sales, and higher than typical inventory.

The Price Of A “Typical” Detached Is Almost Flat

Detached home prices didn’t move much across Greater Toronto. The typical (a.k.a. benchmark) detached home price in TREB reached $907,900 in December, up 0.16% from last year. The City of Toronto benchmark price reached $1,097,400, up 1.13% from last year. For context, they both printed numbers lower than inflation expectations.

Toronto Detached Benchmark Price

The price of a typical detached home across the Toronto Real Estate Board, in Canadian dollars.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Detached prices are still negative across the board, and tapering in the city. TREB’s 0.16% is a smaller annual loss than last month, but still in negative territory. The City of Toronto’s 1.13% is actually a smaller gain than last month. Detached prices across TREB are now down 13.53% from peak, and the City of Toronto is down 10.67%. Both markets are considered to be in a technical correction.

Toronto Detached Benchmark Percent Change

The 12 month percent change of a typical detached home across the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

The median sale price of a detached home isn’t doing hot either. TREB’s median sale price reached $820,000 in December, up 0.92% from last year. The City of Toronto’s median sale price fell to $876,000, down 6.31% from last year. The median is less useful for determining the price you’ll pay for a home. Instead, it should be used as a tool for understanding dollar flow.

Toronto Detached Average Sale Price

The average sale price of a detached house in the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

The Average Sale Price Is Down Over 4%

The average sale price of detached real estate is down across Toronto. TREB reported an average sale price of $945,580 in December, down 4.4% from last year. The City of Toronto average fell to $1,145,892, down 8.0% from last year. Much like the median, the average isn’t particularly useful for determining the price you’ll pay. Instead, it should be used as a tool to help understand dollar flow.

Toronto Detached Average Sale Price Change

The 12 month percent change of average sale price across across TREB.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Toronto Detached Real Estate Sales Fall Over 17%

Toronto detached real estate sales are falling, and fast. TREB reported 1,590 sales in December, down 17% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 340 of those sales, down 24.1% from last year. A couple of things worth mentioning here.

Toronto Detached Sales Vs. New Listings

The total number of detached sales, compared to the number of new detached listings per month.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Last year’s sales were irregular, so the decline doesn’t provide a lot of insights. Last year we saw a “rush” of buyers in December, trying to beat credit tightening that occurred on January 1, 2018. The drop was largely expected. That aside, it was still the worst year for detached sales since 2008. It was expected detached sales would come in lower this year, just not this low.

Second Highest December Inventory In At Least 8 Years

The number of new listings for detached real estate fell across Greater Toronto. TREB reported 2,090 new listings in December, down 31.38% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 377 of those new listings, down 43.73% from last year. Existing inventory build up helped soften the drop of new listings.

Active listings for detached homes, the number for sale, fell but were still higher than usual. TREB reported 6,920 active listings in December, down 7.83% from last year’s multi-year high. The City of Toronto represented 1,292 of those listings, down 11.92% from last year. Oh no, a shortage of inventory! Not exactly… this is the second highest number for detached inventory in at least 8 years. Prior to that, full active listings data was not available.

Toronto Active Detached Listings

The total number of detached listings available.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Detached prices are down from peak, and the “recovery” gains are getting smaller. Sales have fallen to Great Recession levels, with inventory higher than normal. Until these indicators make drastic changes, don’t expect a market shift soon.

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