A government shutdown is quiet, but its logic is that of war. So the assertion that Donald Trump has no graceful exit from his latest impasse is true but superfluous. War never has a smooth exit except via victory, and that goes for Democrats as well as Trump. The difference between this shutdown and the last is that Democrats hold the superior hand. In January 2018, when things last went to the brink, Democrats were a minority party threatening a shutdown on behalf of immigrants brought here illegally as children, the Dreamers, and the public wasn’t supportive of their tactics. This time, they are a majority party refusing to be forced into granting Trump’s request for a border wall, a wall opposed by most voters. Voters are blaming Trump for the shutdown, Republicans in Congress are getting squirmy, and Trump’s approval ratings are sinking. Politically speaking, Democrats believe they’ve got this one in the hand, and they’re probably right.

That said, war is unpredictable. If the imbalance of power is extreme, the conflict ends in quick defeat of one side. If there’s more parity, then the war can turn into a slog that becomes an issue in itself. Public opinion can move. The weak side can win after all. Or both sides might come back to a familiar deal that neither would have considered acceptable until it had tested its strength. (Those pushing for compromise have the contempt of both sides at the start, less so at the end.) So let’s look at the five principal possibilities for how the shutdown ends, in decreasing order of likelihood.

Outcome 1: Donald Trump caves

There are many ways to lose, of course, but let’s define “losing” here as the government reopening with no wall and no concessions from Democrats. It’s a possible outcome. For the first several weeks, both sides hold firm. The fight is crucial, and the pain is still manageable, except for those enduring life without bi-weekly paychecks. Then the pain spikes, and voters get angrier. Whoever is seen as the cause of the shutdown suffers for it, and that means Trump and the G.O.P.

A month from now, if the shutdown continues, Congressional Republicans in purple districts or states will be caught between Scylla and Charybdis, with furious constituents on one side and adamant party leadership on the other. Many will beg Trump to relent. Senator Lindsey Graham, who had tried to capitalize on the moment to engineer a deal with a wall for Trump and legalization for the Dreamers (a priority for Graham), is now urging Donald Trump to reopen government and resume negotiations with Democrats—i.e. fold for now. If Trump continues to say no, Republicans may resort to implicit threats (they’ve got a few they can use) or even flip in desperation and join Democrats in overriding his veto.

Add to this that Donald Trump, for all his talk, hates watching his numbers tank. The child-separation storm last summer had him blaming Democrats first and then rescinding the policy days later. He may wind up taking Graham’s advice.

But party loyalty is important, and most Republicans don’t want a weak president who fails to deliver on his central promise. They and Trump figure that the next big election is over 18 months away, and voters nowadays have short memories. Those with long memories make up your base, and you have to please your base. The probability of Trump’s outright loss can’t be more than one in three.

Outcome 2: Trump declares an emergency and orders wall construction