Fundamentals paint a bleak outlook for BTC-USD, with all of the metrics above posting negative growth over the past 7 days. Ethereum looks slightly better, with positive growth in active addresses and the number of transactions. The market continues to be weighed down by the knock-on effects of coronavirus.

In positive news, Bitcoin Cash diverted from its miner tax after several key figures threw in the towel for the proposal, which would’ve allocated a percentage of mining rewards to the Bitcoin Cash ABC development team. The avoidance of such a ‘mining tax’ could explain the positive fundamentals in the growth in the average transaction fee and the number of active addresses.

XRP also showed positive growth in the number of active addresses, while BSV active addresses declined this week. Transaction values over the past 7 days are starting to reverse and head higher for BTC and ETH, which is a positive sign.

Fundamentals: Bitcoin

A summary of key metrics for bitcoin.

Mayer Multiple = 0.91

The Mayer Multiple has historically been higher than today’s value 68.22 percent of the time.

The Mayer Multiple has decreased from 1.01 last week to 0.91.

Typically, tops in the price of bitcoin are indicated when the Mayer Multiple exceeds 2.4 (shown on the chart).

The average value over Bitcoin’s trading history is 1.37.

Market Value to Realised Value (MVRV) ratio = 1.36677

The MVRV ratio indicates that the market is likely to be overvalued when it exceeds 3.7. On the other hand, the market is suggested to be undervalued if the ratio is less than 1 (shown on the chart).

The MVRV ratio has cooled off a bit after reaching fresh highs for 2020 but has not reached 1.0000 yet — historically a buy signal once the MVRV ratio is below this level.

Network Value to Transactions Signal (NVTS) = 79.5837

A high NTVS (above 72) indicates that the network value is over-valued in relation to the daily transaction value on the Bitcoin network and identifies tops in the market.

Conversely, a low NVTS (below 38), suggests that bitcoin is under-valued in relation to the daily transaction value andidentifies bottoms in the market.

The NVTS continues downward this week, suggesting BTC-USD is still overvalued when comparing the network value and daily transaction value. We’d want to see a test of the 38 level for a strong buy signal.

Days until next halving = 61

The highly anticipated block reward halving for bitcoin is estimated to occur during May 2020. The market has typically responded positively, reaching new all-time highs 10–20 months following previous halving events in 2016 and 2012.

You can find a countdown here.

Technicals

The recent price action for bitcoin and ether.

Bitcoin and Ether Snapshot