September was great for Auburn fans and bettors.

The Tigers (5-0, 2-0) beat No. 11 Oregon in Week 1, No. 17 Texas A&M in Week 4 and embarrassed Mississippi State in Week 5.

Along the way, Auburn became one of just four FBS teams to finish the month unbeaten against the spread.

Normally, the college football betting market takes just weeks to adjust to even the largest outliers, but Auburn has beaten the closing number at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas by 2.5, 1.5, 3.5, 12 and 24.5 points, seemingly confounding oddsmakers more each game.

The majority of respected bettors sided with Texas A&M two weeks ago, and an even larger majority bet on Mississippi State last week – so much so that the posted side moved from Auburn -12 on Sunday to Auburn -8.5 at kickoff.

Now Gus Malzahn’s team travels to The Swamp to take on a Florida team that edged out a meek Miami and got fortunate to beat a regressing Kentucky.

I went against the grain and told everyone to bet on Auburn against Texas A&M, and then leaned toward Auburn against Mississippi State but got scared off by a few trends.

So let’s ride the wave and bet against a fortunate Florida team, right?

Wrong.

Trustworthy technical analysis says Auburn should be anywhere from a one-point favorite to a three-point underdog.

ESPN’s SP+ says Auburn is 0.2 points better than Florida on a neutral field. Yet, as of mid-day Tuesday, every major sportsbook listed Auburn as a three-point road favorite.

ESPN’s FPI says Auburn’s chances of winning are 53.2 percent, which equates to a -115 moneyline. The actual moneyline ranged from -145 to -155.

I made Auburn a half-point favorite Saturday night before the market opened and before doing additional research on the game.

The raw numbers favor Flordia. But there are matchup-related advantages for the Gators as well.

Florida’s defensive havoc will cause problems

Auburn’s running game, and more specifically its offensive line, was perhaps the most important position group to handicap when trying to determine how the Tigers would fare in the 2019 season.

The team has made significant progress in part because the 2019 quarterbacks provide a running threat, JaTarvious Whitlow has served as a true No. 1 from the opening game and Malzahn has sprinkled in successful runs from receivers Eli Stove and Anthony Schwartz.

Continuity on the offensive line has helped to a degree. But Auburn’s offensive line also has allowed 31 tackles for loss, tied for 88th nationally and 13th in the SEC.

To put it in other terms, there’s a stat popularized by Bill Connelly called havoc rate. It looks at the percentage of plays that result in passes defensed (deflections and interceptions), forced fumbles and tackles for loss.

The Action Network this week looked at offensive havoc allowed, and Auburn’s offense ranks 88th nationally, just between Ball State and Virginia Tech. The team’s 12 fumbles and propensity to give up tackles for loss play to Florida’s strengths.

Todd Grantham, Florida’s defensive coordinator, is a master of havoc. He’s always been extremely aggressive, and the Gators have the personnel to suit that style, with lockdown corners and excellent pass rushers.

Florida’s defense is No. 3 in the nation, causing havoc on 25 percent of snaps. The Gators have made an outstanding 45 tackles for loss in five games, and also have intercepted or batted down 29 passes.

Toughest game yet for QB Bo Nix

Let’s consider how that may impact Bo Nix.

Nix completed 49.0 percent of his passes for a combined 277 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions against Oregon and Texas A&M. He made a few nice plays, but can hardly be considered responsible for those wins.

He finally broke out against Mississippi State, completing 16 of 21 passes for 335 yards, with Schwartz and Seth Williams getting healthy.

Auburn built first-quarter leads of 14-0 and 21-0 over Texas A&M and Mississippi State, respectively. It had to come from behind to beat Oregon, but the Ducks aren’t nearly as proficient at getting into opposing backfields, and that game was at a neutral site.

Can Nix withstand the most pressure he’s ever faced, in arguably the most hostile environment he’s ever faced, if Florida takes an early lead? He’s been through some big tests as a true freshman, but he hasn’t been in that type of situation.

What about Auburn’s defense?

Auburn’s defensive line is the team’s biggest matchup advantage on Saturday. This will also be the toughest task that Florida quarterack Kyle Trask, who until recently hadn’t started a game since he was a high school freshman, has seen in his football career.

The Gators offensive line has regressed after losing four starters from the 2018 team.

But Florida’s offense, much like Alabama’s, has begun to replace mediocre results running the ball with short passes.

Trask is much more accurate than the injured Feleipe Franks, though his arm isn’t as strong. He’s completing 77.3 percent of his throws, which is better than Tua Tagovailoa, Jake Fromm and Justin Herbert.

Even with big-play gadget Kadarius Toney sidelined due to injury, Florida has an overlooked, athletic and diverse group of receivers that represents the best Auburn has seen.

Six different Gators have caught at least eight passes for at least 134 yards, led by Ole Miss and Ohio State transfers Van Jefferson and Trevon Grimes. With an accurate quarterback and that many reliable targets, coach Dan Mullen has been successful finding and picking at the weakest opposing cornerbacks and linebackers, and Trask has been good at getting the ball to those targets.

Final prediction

This game is as close to a tossup as you’ll see in the SEC this season. Auburn could win this game by two touchdowns, but so could Florida.

Auburn’s market perception is much higher than Florida’s, and the Tigers have been through bigger tests, even though they’re both flawed but good teams who remain unbeaten. That has created some value on the Gators +3, and I’m willing to take it.

Final score: Florida 24, Auburn 23.

Christopher Smith is a professional handicapper who specializes in college football and basketball. He’s the founder of Sports Locksmith.