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But it is the tumbling oil price, along with the economic uncertainty it heralds, that has persuaded me that the Great Opportunist will risk the charge of rank hypocrisy and break his own election law again.

The price of West Texas crude dipped below US$45 Tuesday — Canadian producers receive a US$13 discount on that price. As Bank of Canada deputy governor Timothy Lane said in a speech Tuesday low oil prices are likely, on the whole, to be “bad for Canada” — which in banker parlance means “stock up on the tinned goods and bottled water.”

His explanation of how things are likely to play out suggests that the Harper Conservatives may be wise to go to the polls while the going is relatively good.

The immediate impact of the lower oil price is positive — consumer disposable income will increase by as much as $1,500 per family, according to the Bank of Montreal. Lower prices will benefit many sectors like manufacturing, as production costs are reduced. In the short term, the positive effect of lower prices on net oil-importing countries like the United States, China, Japan and the European Union will be good for Canadian non-energy exports, particularly when the dollar is trading lower too.

But in the Bank’s opinion, these gains will be more than reversed over time, as lower incomes from the oil patch and the rest of the supply chain spill over into the broader Canadian economy. The effects will be felt most profoundly in the oil-producing provinces – Jim Prentice, the Alberta premier, said Tuesday that royalties will be $7-billion lower while oil producer Suncor said it was reducing its workforce by 1,000 — but the ripples will wash over every town in the country that sends its young people to the oil patch or has companies that have customers there.