No Exit Plan

Other investigations are in the works, and the American government is trying to delicately warn Mr. Kabila that his chances of being prosecuted for corruption would be lower if he left now.

“No one can guarantee no prosecution, but in the real world, there are priorities,” said Tom Malinowski, an assistant secretary of state. “I don’t think one of them would be going after the former president of Congo who did the right thing.”

Still, no one has come up with an exit plan. Even the Western diplomats tasked with appealing to Mr. Kabila, pleading with him not to drive his country off a cliff, admit they are at a loss for what to offer.

Mr. Kabila is still relatively young, 45, and if he is worried about keeping his wealth and avoiding jail after he leaves office, how does one guarantee that? All he has to do is look at Charles Taylor, Liberia’s former president, who agreed to leave office under intense international pressure and was soon apprehended, prosecuted and sentenced to decades in prison.

And what about his safety? Mr. Kabila has made many enemies in nearly 16 years as the leader of one of the world’s most violent states. As one mining executive who used to be close to Mr. Kabila argued, it is not as if the American government is going to assign SEAL Team 6 to guard him in perpetuity, even if he asks.

Mr. Kabila is not your typical strongman. He was driving a taxicab in Tanzania not long before he was thrust into power. His father, a smuggler turned rebel leader turned president, was assassinated in 2001. The only person top advisers could agree on to lead the country, which was in the midst of a very confusing civil war, was the elder son, Joseph, at the time 29.