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This weekend, Leeds United dropped out of the automatic promotion places at the hands of Sheffield United, in what seems to effectively be a game of musical chairs, with the two sides interchanging places almost every other week.

The slip came as a result of a 1-0 defeat away to Birmingham City, and naturally, given that Marcelo Bielsa's side failed to score, the striker is taking a lot of the blame.

Patrick Bamford led the line on the day, and it was notably the fourth match in a row in which he's failed to contribute a goal or an assist.

The 25-year-old is deemed to be out of form, but how bad is the problem? And with Marcelo Bielsa indicating that the striker will keep his place for the trip to Preston on Tuesday evening, has the Argentine made the right decision?

To assess whether Bamford's recent performances are worth worrying about, let's delve into his underlying performance.

(Image: Richard Sellers/PA Wire)

The sample size used will be his last four matches, as he scored one in the contest before that against Bristol City. These recent four will then be compared with his season averages to determine whether there's any notable drops.

Firstly, in terms of goals scored, there's obviously a drop.

Bamford is averaging 0.52 goals per 90 minutes this season in the Championship, meaning that he roughly should've scored around two by this stage. The striker seems to score one in every two matches, so four games without a goal is out of character, so let's explore a little deeper.

In terms of shots, Bamford averages 3.66 per 90, compared to 2.99 recently, which is a drop but isn't overly concerning as he still appears to be shooting enough to have an impact.

(Image: Mick Walker/CameraSport)

His involvements in the box are also slightly down, as he averages 5.05 separate penalty box involvements per 90, compared to 4.48 recently.

These are slight drops, but Bamford hasn't exactly regressed beyond repair yet. His Expected Goals (xG), though, is slightly more concerning.

xG offers an insight into every shot that a player takes, rather than solely appreciating those that hit the back of the net. Over the course of a match, a player will take shots and those shots will have values attached to them relative to how likely they are to be scored.

This provides an understanding into the scoring chances that a player is provided with, and whether he should be notching or not based on those.

So based on the season so far, Bamford's xG average per 90 is 0.68, which is very good and if that figure is multiplied by 46, which is how many matches are played in a Championship season, Bamford would be expected to score an incredible 31.2 goals.

It's worth noting at this stage that Bamford has played just over 1000 league minutes, which isn't a lot and means that with more minutes played, it's likely that his xG per 90 would lower. Nevertheless, his current figure of 0.68 is not to be ignored.

Now, based on his recent four matches, his xG is 0.42 per 90. That figure doesn't seem that far from his season average, but when multiplying 0.42 by 46, he would be expected to score 19.3 across the full season. That is a significant drop from the 31.2 he was previously expected to score.

Despite that, 0.42 isn't bad for a typical striker, and a season return of 19 would be acceptable at most clubs. The issue at hand is that Bamford simply isn't scoring the chances he's being presented with.

The striker missed a penalty versus Millwall, and on Saturday against Birmingham, he missed a couple of high quality chances, with one pictured below which hit the post.

(Image: Wyscout)

Overall, despite his slight drop in several areas, and more so in terms of his xG, he's still doing enough to score.

Usually, when a player underperforms his expected output over a short period to this extent, it's simply in relation to bad luck above all else.

At this stage, Bamford's output is not something to be overly concerned about.

As long as he continues to get on the end of chances as well as taking enough shots, the goals will come. If those areas drop significantly, then it may be time to worry.

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