BEST SOURCES OF INFORMATION

Check these regularly for the latest guidance.

https://fullfact.org/ (Fullfact)

https://www.nhs.uk/ (NHS – National Health Service) (If reading from outside the UK, substitute your country’s healthcare system)

https://www.gov.uk/ (UK Government) (If reading from outside the UK, substitute your country’s Government website)

WORST SOURCES OF INFORMATION

Do not take claims from these sources at face value. Maintain healthy skepticism of what you read, and make sure any information you share is reliable.

Hearsay

Social Media

WHAT COVID-19 IS NOT

Despite causing similar symptoms, Covid-19 is not a strain of flu. It is instead a coronavirus. The visualisation below should make the point plain.

This strain is genetically more alike another kind of coronavirus, which caused some issues several years ago but was (eventually) successfully handled, called SARS. Much of the basis for research into testing and vaccine development is based off of what has worked with this other strain.

SYMPTOMS

The similarity with flu is seen in both the symptoms it causes and the means by which it spreads between people. Here is a comparative list of their symptoms.

Like flu, Covid-19 spreads from person-to-person mainly through the air. This is why maintaining distance from those infected is so important at this time. It is also why it will spread faster, all else equal, in places with a high population density (such as London). Note that even though sneezing is not a symptom of Covid-19, it is still important to use tissues if needed, bin them, and wash your hands. This is to prevent it spreading in case you do have it and it is not yet showing symptoms. This virus is currently thought to be most risky to the elderly, pregnant women, and to those with underlying health conditions.

Why is this worse than the flu you might ask given that people die every year from the flu? There are two main reasons: (1) the death rate from flu is estimated as 0.1% while early estimates for Covid-19 range from 1% to 4% roughly on average (ranging to 8% to 15% for those over 70) so it is estimated to be somewhere between 10 and 40 times more likely to kill, (2) the flu shows symptoms within a day of catching it so people take precautions to stop it spreading to others while Covid-19 can take up to a week to show symptoms so it can go unnoticed and thus can spread far and wide very quickly. These percentages may still seem low, but this is just direct kills. There’s also the second-order effects where people die from other causes because of overwhelmed health services.

ORIGIN

This strain of coronavirus is most likely of bat origin, and was transmitted to humans through other animal intermediaries . The first instances were identified in Wuhan in China in December 2019. It is thought that the poor sanitary standards of a food market in the province was a recipe for eventual disaster. Early news was suppressed by Chinese authorities, who have now reversed course and are updating the rest of the world as the situation develops.

STRATEGIES TO TACKLE COVID-19

In an ideal world, the outbreak would have been identified early and contained. This did not happen and, owing to our ability to travel globally at speeds and volumes greater than ever seen in history, it has spread around the world. Given that it can take up to 7 days for symptoms to show, this implies that there a significant number of people who are likely to already have it and are not yet experiencing any symptoms.

So what can be done?

The visualisation below illustrates the next step in a simplified format.

Note that “risk” here means “assuming you are not currently infected, how severe would the consequences likely be if you do become infected” and is not the same as probability. Possibly due to how it has been reported, many have assumed that younger people are unlikely to get it. This is not known to be the case, and should be assumed false until there is good reason to deny it. It is just that the consequences for younger people are likely to be less severe.

A core part of the strategy is (or at least should be) to separate society into sub-communities so that the virus cannot spread across communities. Those most at risk and those who are infected are the groups that most need to be isolating right now. The fundamental question for the strategy is “how do we know what group someone is in?”. In particular, how do we know when someone is infected and how do we know when someone has become immune to it after having recovered? Testing for both is key to the success of the strategy, as we will need to ensure that those with it are not a danger to others and those who are immune can act to support people through this time. In test development, it is better here to misclassify as “infected” someone who actually isn’t than it is to do the reverse.

It is an amazing feat of medical science that the entire genomic sequence of Covid-19 was identified in a matter of days, allowing for early identification of potential vaccine treatments. These will have to go through testing to see if they work, to ensure they do not have harmful side-effects, and will enter mass production once solid candidates have emerged.

ADVICE

Please check the sources listed at the top of this post for further information. Check them regularly as the situation is ongoing. The below is just a summary.

In addition:

Stay in touch with friends and family members via digital means if possible rather than in person visits. Avoid unnecessary usage of public transport, and avoid international travel. Continue using any medications you may be on unless advised otherwise. Work from home if able. If you are isolating and cannot work, then why not take the time to read books, play games, watch movies, listen to cheerful music, etc to keep morale high? Many people will be working from home and will require internet usage. As tempting though it is, opt for DVDs and Box Sets rather than online streaming as much as you can to not slow the network. Beware of scammers. Any emails which claim to have a cure, claim to be the Government offering a tax rebate, or the like are very likely to be scams. If you display symptoms, do not go to the doctor, hospital, or pharmacy but use the NHS online service or phone 111 if you have no access to the Internet. In an emergency, call 999 Issues specific to yourself that have not been covered here are likely to be addressed on the Government’s website either already or in the near future.

Given the importance of the issue, if you find any errors in this post then please let me know and I will amend it. The same goes if you believe I have inadvertently omitted anything important.