White Middle Class Rebelling Against Both American Parties

How Both Parties Lost the White Middle Class

Today, the vast middle of the middle fears that unless you're on the way up, you're on the way down.

I've been making that argument here for years because it seems correct. I've been arguing that you had better try to go up because if you aren't trying to go up you are very likely headed down. My sense of it was that a lot of people in the middle are in denial on this point. I'd expect government workers to feel immune and perhaps people in some industries that haven't been hit yet by lots of automation and outsourcing.

In the essay above R.R. Reno argues that a big split is between those who benefit from globalization and those who are doing poorly as a result of globalization. But he only captures one part of it. The three causes of this split are automation, global trade, and immigration.

Reno is right when he argues the Left derides the white middle class:

The message: White middle-class Americans aren't just irrelevant to America's future, they're in the way.

Meanwhile the Right has people deriding anyone who isn't an innovator or entrepreneur. So the (shrinking) middle feels abandoned by both parties. Makes sense. They really have been abandoned by both parties. Hard to believe this would happen and so they've been slow to figure it out. They've just finally started to express themselves by voting for candidates who at least pretend to feel loyal to them.

My favorite Bureau of Labor Statistics page (yes, I have a favorite BLS page) is about employment population ratio by educational level. Look at how the high school grads and high school drop-outs are faring against those with some college or a bachelor's degree or better. I think this drop in status and employment is a long term trend that won't reverse any time soon.

My advice continues to be the same: go for skills and move to places that will give you better opportunities for advancement. Even if Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders gets elected in November 2016 the prospects for the middle will not brighten. I think Trump could slow the decline but not reverse the fortunes of the middle class. Sanders probably can't even do that much.