While Anthony Kennedy’s replacement could shift the court on a wide range of issues, most of the early questions for senators who will weigh the nomination have centered around abortion. | John Shinkle/POLITICO Poll: Majority wants next justice to support abortion rights

A majority of voters want the next Supreme Court justice to support abortion rights, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted in the immediate wake of Anthony Kennedy’s retirement announcement last week.

With the prospect that President Donald Trump’s pending pick to replace Kennedy could join with the existing four justices appointed by Republican presidents to overturn Roe v. Wade, 52 percent of voters say they hope the new justice supports a woman’s right to an abortion.


Twenty-nine percent say they hope the new justice opposes abortion rights, while the remaining 19 percent don’t know or have no opinion.

Democrats hope the nominee supports abortion rights by a large margin, 73 percent to 13 percent. A smaller majority of Republicans hope the nominee is opposed to abortion rights, 54 percent, compared to 31 percent who hope the nominee is supportive. Independent voters hope the next justice is a backer of abortion rights by a roughly 2-to-1 margin: 49 percent to 24 percent.

While Kennedy’s replacement could shift the court on a wide range of issues, most of the early questions for senators who will weigh the nomination have centered around abortion. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who supports abortion rights, has said she could reject a nominee who was outwardly hostile to Roe. Kennedy sided with the court’s liberals in decisions to uphold Roe when challenges arose.

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll also shows voters want the next justice to uphold one of Kennedy’s signature rulings in recent years: the opinion he wrote in Obergefell v. Hodges legalizing same-sex marriage nationwide. A majority, 52 percent, hope the next justice supports same-sex marriage, while 27 percent hope the justice opposes gay marriage.

A majority of voters, 57 percent, also hope the next justice will protect Dreamers — young people brought to the U.S. illegally when they were children — from deportation. And pluralities hope Trump’s nominee will support the death penalty (48 percent to 26 percent) and affirmative action (48 percent to 20 percent).

Trump and the GOP plan to press forward on a nomination before the midterm elections, despite the party’s slim, 51-49 majority in the Senate. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) worked to change the chamber’s rules last year to allow a Supreme Court nominee to be confirmed with a bare majority, thwarting Democrats’ ability to filibuster Neil Gorsuch’s nomination.

But a plurality of voters in the poll, 48 percent, say Supreme Court justices should receive 60 votes in order to win confirmation. Only 26 percent say justices should be confirmed with 51 votes; the remaining 26 percent don’t know.

Voters are split on whether the Senate should vote on a Kennedy replacement before the midterm elections in November (39 percent), or whether the Senate should wait until the new Congress is seated next January to vote on a new justice (38 percent).

The poll also shows the fight over the court could play a large role in this year’s midterms. More than 4 in 10 voters, 43 percent, say how a Senate candidate would vote on Supreme Court nominees is very important to their vote, and another 34 percent say it is somewhat important. A combined 12 percent say it’s not too important, or not important at all.

But the court fight — as least initially — motivates voters who identify with either major party.

“Our polling suggests the open Supreme Court justice seat could have major repercussions on 2018 Senate races," said Tyler Sinclair, Morning Consult’s managing director. “More than three-quarters (76 percent) of voters say their senator’s position on the ... nominee will be a very or somewhat important factor at the ballot box, including 82 percent of Democrats, 80 percent of Republicans, and 68 percent of independents.”

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll was conducted June 28-29 and surveyed 1,990 registered voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.

More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents — Toplines: https://politi.co/2tMIXaq | Crosstabs: https://politi.co/2KHWc2s