Doug Mataconis · · 3 comments

The effort to repeal the military’s “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policies faces it’s biggest test yet today in the Senate, and the prospects are not good for advocates of repeal:

The Senate is planning to vote Tuesday on whether to end debate on a $725.7 billion annual defense policy bill, a measure that includes a repeal of the “don’t ask, don’t tell” law, which bans gays from serving openly in the armed forces.

The vote is expected to be close but is almost certain to pass if Democrats can break a Republican-led filibuster. The House passed a similar measure in May, and a House-Senate compromise version is expected to pass both chambers after the November midterm elections.

But even if Tuesday’s vote succeeds, Senate aides said Republicans may introduce an amendment this week that would remove the repeal from the defense bill.

President Obama voiced support for repealing “don’t ask” during his 2008 campaign and has since said he would sign the defense bill after certifying an ongoing Pentagon study of how a repeal might affect troop readiness and morale.

Election-year pressures and Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid’s decision to call a vote before the end of the Pentagon review have made it difficult to secure the 60 votes needed to end the filibuster, according to Senate aides and advocates for and against repeal. Attention is focused on a handful of moderate senators, including Susan Collins (R-Maine), George V. Voinovich (R-Ohio) and James Webb (D-Va.).

Backers of repeal had hoped to sway Olympia J. Snowe (R-Maine), but she signaled Monday that she will not support the measure.