Presidential by HD for PA's House, via the good folks at DKE

Last time in this series we looked at the Pennsylvania Senate, a chamber where Democrats are poised to make significant gains but will probably fall short of the majority. The Pennsylvania House of Representatives, however, is a different story. This chamber has a lot of seats, 203 in fact. The current breakdown is 121 Republicans to 82 Democrats, meaning that Democrats need 20 flips to get the outright majority. Here’s the ratings table:

Pennsylvania House Ratings

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R 71 (D) 50 (D) 44 (R) 18 (R) 29 (R) 72 (D) 74 (R) 61 (R) 49 (R) 30 (R) 119 (D) 143 (R) 76 (D) 104 (R) 97 (R) 162 (R) 144 (R) 105 (R) 189 (R) 106 (R) 146 (R) 151 (R) 142 (R) 150 (R) 155 (R) 177 (R) 157 (R) 178 (D) 158 (R) 160 (R) 163 (R) 165 (R) 167 (R) 168 (R) 170 (R) 176 (R)

Likely D: 71, 72, 119, 162

71st District: Bryan Barbin

Located in Cambria County, Bryan Barbin has held this much-bluer-down-ballot seat for almost a decade. At the presidential level, it is an astonishing R+12 PVI, but Barbin was able to run miles ahead of Clinton to win 59-41 in 2016. It’s hard to see him losing in 2018, especially facing the same guy for the fourth time, but because of how red the district is at the top of the ticket, we put it in Likely D.

72nd District: Frank Burns

Another similar story here. A fairly longtime and quite strong Dem incumbent in a super red seat (R+19). Burns won by a 59/41 margin in 2016 and again, it’s hard to see him losing to a semi-some dude candidate (Jerry Carnicella) who he has a lot more money than, but partisan lean puts it on the board.

119th District: Gerald Mullery

This is an R+7 district in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, that Obama actually won, before it was taken by Trump by a gaudy 26 points. Mulerry has served since 2011 and won a 56-44 re-election in 2016. He’s facing businessman Justin Behrens in 2018 so I expect him to win again, but I’m just noting it in Likely D.

162nd District: Open (Miccarelli)

This is the first Dem pickup, an open seat because the Incumbent Nick Miccarelli was ousted in a #MeToo scandal and Republicans didn’t even field a candidate in this D+3 district. Thus, Dave Delosso is going to represent Delaware County and HD-162 in the next session of the Pennsylvania Legislature.

Lean D: 50, 74, 143, 144, 146, 150, 177, 178

50th District: Pam Snyder

This district consists almost wholly of Greene County, which is ancestrally Democratic but now very Republican. The PVI of the seat is R+11, but a Democrat, Pam Snyder, holds it. She won re-election by a narrow 53-47 margin in 2016 and is facing her opponent from that race, Betsy McClure, in a rematch. While that area is getting redder as we speak, it’s hard to see Snyder losing in 2018 if she didn’t in 2016.

74th District: Open (Lewis)

Favored Democratic pickup #2 is in Chester County and is a D+12 seat that is actually GOP-held. The incumbent Harry Lewis barely won re-election in 2016 and realized the writing was on the wall, bowing out before 2018. Pastor Dan Williams is the Democratic nominee, while Amber Little-Turner, a local legislator, is the GOP nominee, in theory giving the GOP a nominee edge. But the fundamentals of the district are so overpowering that Dems are probably going to pick this one up.

143rd District: Open (Quinn)

This Bucks County district in suburban Philly is being vacated by Incumbent Marguerite Quinn. It has an R+3 PVI and was actually won by Trump narrowly, but the open seat/suburban dynamic really favors Democrats. Teacher/Dem candidate Wendy Ullman is the fundraising leader and is the favorite to flip this seat blue in the fall, while Doylestown councilman Joe Flood will try to prevent that. Good luck to him, this seat is Lean D.

144th District: Open (Staats)

Another open Bucks County seat that Trump narrowly won, this one is actually a tad redder than HD-143. Nurse/lawyer Meredith Buck is the Democratic nominee and she’s the fundraising leader at this point, ahead of GOP nominee Todd Polinchock. The makeup of the district, similar to HD-143, puts it at Lean D.

146th District: Thomas Quigley

This Pennsylvania suburbs seat is located in Montgomery County and has an R+1 PVI, after Hillary Clinton won it in 2016. Her performance there almost sank Republican incumbent Thomas Quigley, who hung on by a margin of 51-49. Quigley has never been a strong incumbent, losing the last time he ran in an even kinda pro-D environment (2012) and we’re betting that 2018 is enough to knock him out, as he is facing a rematch with Democratic businessman Joe Ciresi, warranting the Lean D rating.

150th District: Open (Corr)

HD-150 is right next door to HD-146 and it is seeing its incumbent Mike Corr retire after just one term. It’s a D+1 seat that Clinton won by 8 points, though Corr was able to win by a narrow margin in 2016. However, Corr is retiring, and he announced it after the primary, meaning the PA GOP gets to select a candidate to put on the ballot, though they haven’t decided who yet. An open Clinton seat pretty much means it is rated Lean D in my ratings system, and Democrats have Air Force veteran Joe Webster in the race. At this time, Webster is the favorite, hence the Lean D.

177th District: Open (Taylor)

Amazingly, Republicans currently hold this D+11 seat in Delaware County, very close to downtown Philadelphia. The incumbent John Taylor used his name and personal brand to win re-election in 2016, but he didn’t want to have to try again in 2018, so he’s retiring. Democrats have their 2016 candidate, Joe Hohenstein in the race, and he’s the clear favorite to pickup this deep blue seat. Republicans have a decent candidate, but district fundamentals point to a Dem pickup here.

178th District: Helen Tai

This is a seat that Democrats picked up back in May on Pennsylvania’s primary day. Located in Bucks County in suburban Philadelphia, it has an R+6 PVI and actually voted for Trump in 2016. However, the Democrat Helen Tai won the special election narrowly and will get a rematch with GOPer Wendi Thomas in the fall. Because primaries tend to skew more to older/whiter electorates (more Republican), winning a special on primary day is a good sign for Democratic prospects of holding the seat in November, which is why I chalk this one up as Lean D.

Tossup: 44, 61, 76, 105, 151, 155, 157, 158, 160, 163, 165, 167, 168, 170, 176

44th District: Open (Mustio)

HD-44 is in the outskirts of Allegheny County and is pretty red, with an R+8 PVI. However, the seat moved towards Dems in 2016, with Trump winning it by just 10 and the open seat nature makes it very competitive. Furthermore, Democratic candidate Michelle Knoll is the fundraising leader over Republican nominee Valarie Gaydos, which opens the door for a Democratic steal of this red seat and landing it in tossup.

61st District: Katie Harper

One of the best Democratic pickup opportunities among the seats in the tossup column is HD-61. Located in Montgomery County in the Philadelphia area, Harper won a close-but-not-too-close reelection in 2016, which does put a target on her back, especially in a D+3/Clinton +17 seat. Harper is facing businesswoman/lawyer Liz Hanbidge, and Hanbidge currently has a 2-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage over Harper, a good sign of Democratic prospects. This seat is probably Tilt D, but because I don’t do tilts, I’ll leave it in tossup.

76th District: Open (Hanna)

The best opportunity for a Republican pickup is here in Clinton/Centre counties. HD-76 is an R+16 seat that Trump won by 38 (!!!!). The Democratic incumbent, Mike Hanna Sr., is retiring after a pretty close race in 2016. This presents the Republicans with a tremendous pickup opportunity, though Democrats still have a fighting chance. That’s because the incumbent’s son, Mike Hanna Jr., is in the race, and in a chamber where districts are so localized that name brands have such an important impact, having the Mike Hanna name could be a huge boost for junior. Additionally, he has a wide fundraising edge over Republican Stephanie Borowicz, who is back for another swing after losing in 2016. I still think the GOP flips this one, but candidate strength makes me not so sure, which is why the tossup rating is appropriate.

105th District: Open (Marisco)

HD-105 can be found in Harrisburg, PA, an R+6 seat that Trump won by 8 points. This makes it a solid Democratic pickup shot, especially with the open seat. The Democratic nominee is teacher/academic Eric Epstein and the Republican is businessman Andrew Lewis. Lewis spent quite a bit in the primary, meaning he trails Epstein in COH by quite a bit, giving Democrats an early edge in that regard. Accounting for national environment, I expect this to be a close race, and the type of seat Dems need to flip if they want a majority in this chamber, so tossup is the right rating here.

151st District: Todd Stephens

We’re back to Philadelphia’s suburbs with HD-151, a D+3 seat that Clinton won by 14 points. Incumbent Todd Stephens has built up a good name for himself, managing to win re-election comfortably in 2016. However, midterms are a different beast and with juiced Dem turnout in suburban areas, he is quite endangered. He’s also attracted a very good challenger in Sara Rothman, a school board member and an assistant DA. Rothman has almost already closed the cash gap between her and the well funded Stephens, setting up a tightly contested and expensive battle in the fall.

155th District: Becky Corbin

This seat is in Chester County and was won by Clinton by 8 after Romney had previously won it. Incumbent Becky Corbin won by a margin of 58-42, making her definitely not invincible. Democrats have businesswoman Danielle Otten in the race, and she has a bit of fundraising to do before she can catch up with Corbin. For the time, Corbin is the favorite, but this will probably end up being quite close, so tossup feels right here.

157th District: Warren Kampf

Located on the border of Montgomery County and Chester County, this is a D+5 seat that is quickly moving away from GOP incumbent Warren Kampf. Kampf has a lot of money in the bank to try and hang on again in a seat Clinton won by 22, though Dems like their candidate, entrepreneur Melissa Shusterman. Shusterman already has almost $80,000 in the bank, giving her more than enough to compete, and this is a crucial race that Democrats need if they want a majority in the chamber.

158th District: Eric Roe

Staying in Chester County, HD-158 also moved to Democrats, going from Romney +2 to Clinton +10, putting GOP incumbent Eric Roe on notice. Roe was able to get a lot of split ticket voters in 2016 as he impressively won HD-158 even though it was open. His task will be a lot harder in 2018 and he’s staring down the challenge of local mom Christina Sappey, who already has raised a fair bit of money. Not much else to say here other than this is a crucial swing race.

160th District: Stephen Barrar

HD-160 is split between Chester County and Delaware County, also in the Philly suburbs. Barrar is a strong and longtime incumbent (20 years), with a large war-chest built up. That will make him a tough, but not at all impossible, out. This is a HRC district, though it does have a slight R PVI, which makes it a clear Dem target. Public defender Anton Andrew is the Democratic nominee and he looks good enough to give Barrar, who was unopposed last time around, a good run for his money.

163rd District: James Santora

We stay in Delaware County for HD-163, a D+4 seat that the incumbent Santora won by just 8 points in 2016. That was still much better than Trump, who lost here by double digits, but it indicates vulnerability. Santora has a good sized cash edge over Democrat Mike Zabel, an attorney, but money may not be enough to save Santora in these political winds.

165th District: Alex Charlton

The DelCo district rundown continues here in HD-165, as freshman Rep. Alex Charlton is one of the most endangered Reps. in the PA House. He won this EVEN PVI seat by a solid margin in 2016, though he will be facing a much tougher test this time around. That is in the form of UPenn teacher Jennifer O’Mara, who’s been fundraising like crazy and has already doubled up Charlton in cash-on-hand, putting him majorly behind the eight ball. Without a large name brand built up, Charlton will be in real danger this fall.

167th District: Duane Milne

We return to Chester County for HD-167, a D+2 seat with a pretty longtime incumbent (over 10 years). Milne won re-election in 2016 by a 57-43 margin, but he too will be faced with the brisk political winds of 2018. He’s facing Kristine Howard, a local political activist, who seems fine. Milne has a surprisingly small amount of money in the bank for such a pretty long tenured incumbent, giving Democrats a real shot here, and warranting the tossup rating.

168th District: Chris Quinn

We bounce back to DelCo for HD-168, an R+1 seat that Clinton did win in 2016, though Quinn was able to win a 56-44 re-election. He has a good deal of money in the bank, which will give him an early edge over public servant Kristin Seale, though she will have the national environment and district fundamentals on her side. This is a tossup.

170th District: Martina White

This is a seat that is actually in Philadelphia County, held by Martina White, who won a special election for the D+3 seat in 2015. She won a 54-46 re-election in 2016, running ahead of Donald Trump’s losing effort here. In 2018 she gets to face realtor Mike Doyle, who she has a bit of a cash edge over after Doyle was forced to spend in the primary. A cause for concern for PA Dems is that Doyle has a DUI in his past, though it’s unclear how much of an effect that might have (George W. Bush had a DUI if you remember). For now, it look like a pretty clear tossup.

176th District: Jack Rader

We reach the final tossup, located in Monroe County, Pennsylvania. This is an R+4 seat that Trump did quite well in, though Obama also won it by 3. Incumbent Jack Rader was unopposed in 2016 and he will not be easy to defeat. Veteran/policewoman Claudette Williams is the Democratic nominee and she seems fine. This race tilts towards the Republicans but is more of a tossup, so it stays here.

Lean R: 18, 49, 104, 189

18th District: Gene DiGirolamo

Here we have another entrenched incumbent in a blue district. This is a D+5 seat in Bucks County that Clinton and Obama both won comfortably. DiGirolamo has been around since the 90s and will not be easy to beat, going unopposed in 2016. Democratic nominee Jimmy Lamb will have his work cut out for him, as DiGirolamo has a lot of cash in the bank, but this is the type of seat where the district fundamentals could topple even the strongest of incumbents if a large wave comes, warranting the Lean R rating.

49th District: Bud Cook

This seat in Washington and Fayette Counties in southwestern Pennsylvania is getting redder and was a Republican pickup in 2016. Bud Cook won it after the Democratic incumbent retired, though he won by just 8 while Trump was winning by 21. Obama won here so it gives Dems an opportunity, though not a great one. Former Washington County DA Steven Toprani is the Democratic nominee and he seems pretty credible though he needs to pick up the fundraising to put it seriously in play.

104th District: Sue Helm

HD-104 is in Dauphin and Lebanon Counties with a R+5 PVI. Helm has served here for over a decade, so she won’t be easy to dislodge. Her 2016 margins were pretty similar to Trump’s margins here, so it will be a bit of an uphill climb. Democratic candidate Patty Smith is a local non-profit lady and she seems good enough to make things interesting but this is not yet an immediate pickup opportunity.

189th District: Rosemary Brown

This seat is in Monroe and Pike Counties in the northwest corner of the state. It has an R+1 PVI and Obama did quite well here, giving Democrats an opportunity, though not a great one. Incumbent Rosemary Brown won in a landslide in 2016, suggesting she won’t be an easy pushover for Democratic nominee Adam Rodriguez. The artist and activist will need to fundraise better going forward if he wants to put it really in play. For now, it’s Lean R.

Likely R: 29, 30, 97, 106, 142

29th District: Bernie O’Neill

Another Bucks County district, this one moved towards Clinton in 2016 but still was won by Trump, making it a tough haul in 2018. Incumbent Bernie O’Neill has been around for 15 years and certainly will be no easy target, winning 62-38 in 2016. He surprisingly doesn’t have a large war-chest, though neither does teacher Andrew Dixon, the Democratic nominee for this race. It’s one to watch, but don’t expect it to flip.

30th District: Hal English

Located in Allegheny County, HD-30 has an R+8 PVI and is pretty red. The incumbent Hal English was unopposed last time, and has a lot of money in the bank. But health care professional Betsy Monroe is an intriguing candidate for the Democrats, though she needs to raise more money.

97th District: Steve Mentzer

This is a seat in Lancaster County and with an R+9 PVI, it is not at all a top target. Still, Clinton was within 10 points, so it’s at least worth mentioning. Mentzer won a decisive 63-37 victory in 2016 and is well funded. Businesswoman Dana Gulick is an intriguing candidate for the Democrats, though she will also have to pick up the pace on raising cash to make this more than Likely R.

106th District: Tom Mehaffie

HD-106 is in Dauphin County in southcentral Pennsylvania and has an R+6 PVI. Clinton lost it by just 8 points, so it is definitely a potential flip, and Mehaffie is only a freshman Rep.. Unfortunately, Democrats did not even challenge Mehaffie despite it being an open seat in 2016, squandering a chance to make a run at the seat. This time they have community volunteer Jill Linta, who will need to raise a lot of money to close the gap between herself and the well funded Mehaffie to show that this is more than Likely R.

142nd District: Frank Farry

Last but not least, we have Frank Farry in Bucks County, PA. This district is just R+3 but Farry has served for a decade and was unopposed last time around, indicative of his strength in the district (so is his large war-chest). Teacher and businesswoman Lauren Lareau seems good enough to make things interesting in this Trump +4 district but we make Farry a clear favorite here.

The Path to a Democratic Majority

In order for Democrats to flip the PA House, they need to flip 19 20. That seems like a lot, and it is, but out of 203, it’s a little less daunting. The path to doing so looks a lot like the path to a Virginia House majority last fall. What I mean by that is it involves snapping down ballot ticket splitting in suburban areas that are now pretty blue. For years, Northern Virginia voted for Democrats in the presidential races and GOP Reps. in the State House. That changed last fall and Democrats made huge gains, both in open seats and in contested races. The same will need to happen here in the Philadelphia suburbs for Democrats to flip the chamber.

As I currently have it, Democrats are favorites to pick up 8 seats, while one of their own is in the tossup column. That would put them at 99-90 R. In the tossup column, there are 15 seats, 14 held by Republicans and 1 by Democrats. Thus, Democrats would need to win 13 of the 15 tossups, or else begin to topple some of the Lean R/Likely R. Among the tossups, I think Democrats are favored in 53, 158, 163, and 170. That would give them 94 seats and makes my base estimate D+11. The challenge is finding the last 9 for a majority. The path to 9 additional flips is most likely to be 157, 165, 105, 44, 151, 155, 167, 168, 76. It’s rather daunting but it all revolves around the same type of district: suburbs.

The Bottom Line

This is a very interesting chamber because Democrats are likely to make considerable gains. It just depends on how many there will be. The amount of GOP retirements will get them probably halfway there, but it’s carving out those last few that will be the biggest challenge. This is also an interesting chamber because it doesn’t take a lot for it to get really bad for Republicans, since so many of the districts have similar makeups. Hillary Clinton won 19 districts currently held by Republicans. If Dems flip all 19 of those, they will be just one short at 102-101. Essentially, if split ticket voting ceases in the Philly area as it did in Virginia last year, things could get really out of hand really fast for the GOP. For now though, we consider Republicans to be favored to hang onto the chamber, giving it a Lean R rating , though it is not at all out of the question that it could flip R → D.

Chamber Rating: Lean R

Estimate if election were held today: D+11 to D+22