The trade deadline has passed with no major moves (David Lee’s buyout not withstanding) so, from a team building perspective, the focus now shifts to the offseason. There’s potentially still roster work to do this season, but we can now get a relatively good read on the Celtics’ cap position and map out the next block of opportunities.

2016-17 Cap Projections

The most commonly accepted cap projection for next season had been $89M until Zach Lowe wrote on ESPN.com last week that the consensus among teams is now $92M. The moves that Portland and Philadelphia made to game the salary floor will increase that by another $500k and some reports are that more aggressive teams are already projecting a $95M cap. In the interest of consistency with other things you may read, I’ll use $92M for the salary cap in this exercise. The salary floor is projected at $82.8M. The expectation should be that teams, including possibly the Celtics, will not be able to spend up to the floor next season.

Maximum contracts are set based on a player’s years of service and expressed as a percentage of Basketball Related Income (BRI). You can figure out maximum contracts amounts using the formula:

[Salary Cap] / .4474 * .4214 = [Salary Basis] 0-6 Years Max = [Salary Basis] * 0.25 = $21.7M on $92M cap 7-9 Years Max = [Salary Basis] * 0.30 = $26.0M 10+ Years Max = [Salary Basis] * 0.35 = $30.3M



The rest of the relevant contract sizes (rookie scale, minimums, MLE/MMLE/RME) are all fixed values and not impacted by the salary cap.

Celtics Cap Position

After 18 years spent over the cap, the Celtics will have space for the second consecutive offseason. Last year the space was spent on Amir Johnson with the remainder used to finagle 2nd round picks through a variety of moves. This year, the team can have far more cap space (both in gross dollars and in relation to the cap) than they have ever had before.

We can build up to a cap projection by breaking down the roster into groups.

Guaranteed Contracts

The team has just under $34M in guaranteed contracts signed for next season accounting for nine players. Every player in this group has a contract with positive value across the league and could be traded away to create cap space in the unlikely event that it’s needed. These nine players leave ~$58M in cap space which allows for two max contracts, or one 7-9 and one 0-6 year max contract after adding just draft holds.

Non-guaranteed Contracts

Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko both have non-guaranteed contracts that can be waived up to July 3. Carrying both would cut $17M from the team’s cap space. Amir Johnson is worth his $12M on a per minute basis but, unless both Tyler Zeller and Jared Sullinger are leaving, probably doesn’t get enough minutes on this team to be worth the investment. From the day the Celtics are eliminated (or win the title) until June 30, he’s a super-expiring contract for trades.

Jerebko is absolutely worth the $5M he’s due next season but, like Amir, could be a super-expiring in trade. A lot of team would trade for Jonas and keep him, but he’s a valuable part of the Celtics rotation and, depending on roster spots, would continue to be that next season.

One interesting possibility for Jerebko (that will never happen) would be agreeing to an extension and then releasing and re-signing Jonas to push dollars forward into years where reaching the salary floor will be a challenge. For example, they could agree to a two year $20M extension, bringing the total remaining value to 3/$25M, but then structure it as a descending deal for $9M, $8.3M, $7.6M so the team gets closer to the floor in the cap jump years and then has a lower spend when it flattens. This would involve making Jonas an unrestricted free agent first, which is why it won’t happen.

Restricted Free Agents

I had expected the team to move one of Sullinger or Zeller at the deadline. The fact that both are still here probably means they’ll be extended qualifying offers and at least consider staying long-term. I also think it lowers the odds that Amir Johnson will be on the team next season.

For cap purposes, a player’s hold is the greater of their qualifying offer or cap hold. For both players the qualifying offer is higher so maintaining the RFA rights to the pair would knock $12.2M out of the team’s space. As with Jae Crowder last season, new contracts for more than their QO figures could be agreed to but not signed until other moves are made. Both players will have multiple offers for above their QO if they talk to other teams.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Evan Turner has carved out a nice role in Boston but may be the odd man out with the building roster crunch and younger, cheaper ball handlers pushing for time. His Bird Rights carry a $4.4M hold, which he should be paid more than on the open market. As with the RFA’s, if he were to agree to a new contract in Boston he could wait to sign it until other business is done so only his hold sits on the books.

Draft Picks

First round picks carry cap holds. Based on current projections, the Dallas pick should be around 18 and the Celtics’ own pick around 24. Those two picks would combine for a $2.5M hold. If a drafted player agrees to spend the year outside the NBA (in either a foreign league or the D-League) their hold can be removed from the cap but they then cannot sign an NBA contract for a year.

The Nets pick will carry a larger hold that will depend on the lottery. On current projections, the pick odds and holds would look like this:

The weighted average value of those holds would be $3.75M, an amount between the holds of the 3rd and 4th picks. Dragan Bender is a draft possibility in this range who would almost certainly stay in Europe for years, removing his hold.

The Celtics are tracking towards having five 2nd round picks. The later three will not be on the team. They will either be sold, traded, used on foreign-based players, or on US-based players who have already agreed to stay out of the NBA. The two higher picks would likely require cap space to sign, like Jordan Mickey did. Second round picks do not carry contract exceptions. They can be signed for the minimum or room exception, but each of those are only for two year contracts which causes problems when they reach free agency. The best path for signing high second round picks is having about $1M in cap space to use on them.

Boston could hold onto everything they have now, which would account for the contract or rights to 17 players, and still have $18M in cap space.

Opportunities for Improvement

In season signings

The team has an open roster spot after buying out David Lee. The room exception is still available to sign a player from the buy-out market or free agent pool. A player will likely be signed for the minimum with a second non-guaranteed year if nothing else materializes for that spot, like Chris Babb was last season.

Post-elimination (or title), pre-draft

Once a team has finished their season they can start trading again, but only for players under contract the next season. Players with only a player option left cannot be traded. A team that fails to meet their goals in the postseason could make an offer to the Celtics during this time. Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko are attractive trade chips in this window because they can still be traded, unlike pure expiring contracts, but then waived by the acquiring team.

Trades can be completed up until 2:00 PM on the day of the draft. The draft lottery happens on May 17; hopefully the Celtics will still be playing that day as it’s also when the conference finals tip off.

With Ainge’s recent comments about almost completing a major trade, and that nearly finalized trades can lay the foundation for future moves, the rumor mill will be hot in this window. Unless Houston, Chicago, and Indiana over perform their current expectations fans will run wild with thoughts of James Harden, Jimmy Butler, or Paul George being Boston bound. This will be prime time for another round of Kevin Love and Blake Griffin speculation, too.

Post-draft, pre 6/30

The week after the draft is similar to the week before, except draft rights are traded instead of draft picks. As the players have not yet been signed, they do not count for any salary for matching purposes.

During the post-elimination window through the end of the season, the team will be operating as an over-the-cap team and subject to the salary matching rules (trade machine, here we come) that come with that status. Amir Johnson’s non-guaranteed contract is still a major asset for matching purposes in this time period.

July 1 – July 11

During the signing moratorium teams can speak to free agents but no official signings can be made. Also, no offer sheets on restricted free agents can be submitted. Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko hit their guarantee dates on July 3 so could be discussed in trades up to that point or, if necessary, waived by the Celtics. Any trade agreed to during this period that includes Johnson or Jerebko would mean that the acquiring team has agreed to pay the player’s 2016-17 salary because the trade cannot be made official in time to waive them. Both players should be worth their salaries so that’s not necessarily an impediment to trading them.

July 12 and on…

This is the start of the signing period and open season on offer sheets to restricted free agents. If Sully and Zeller haven’t reached terms with the team, expect offer sheets to be registered for them, giving the Celtics a few days to match while they remain on their cap holds. The Celtics will be well under the cap as of July 1 so trades completed during this time would either be done as a cap team, where salary matching is no longer required, or agreed to but held off on until later in the process, like the David Lee trade in 2015.

By this point, draft picks can be signed and have their salaries included for trade matching purposes. However, drafted players cannot be traded for 30 days after they’ve signed. That’s why the Kevin Love trade to Cleveland took so long to complete.

Expectations and Possible Plans

Based on current projections, I view the team has having around $45M in cap space. That isn’t strictly a cap space figure for July as that room could also be used in a post-season trade (by including Amir Johnson) this year or for trades in the next league season that add salary without sending significant amounts out.

To reach this number, I’m removing Amir Johnson, Evan Turner, and one of Tyler Zeller or Jared Sullinger. I’m starting with the hold for the Nets pick but assuming the Celtics and Mavs picks will either be traded and/or used on players “stashed” overseas and removed from the cap calculation. I am keeping Jonas Jerebko on the roster for now. Any number from $38-50M seems possible, depending on the lottery and final cap figure.

Danny Ainge made it clear that they were not willing to add future salary for anything less than a major upgrade. That indicates that they truly believe that they’ll be able to sign at least one major free agent. The goal is likely to add two major players. The most reasonable path to doing that would be trading for one player after the lottery and then signing a second in July.

I view three branching possibilities for the offseason.

A “transformative” offseason would entail trading for a major veteran player then signing a second max (or near max) player and going into next season over the cap. The “middle ground” path would involve trading for or drafting someone with a lower salary like Jahlil Okafor, signing a player who may not be a traditional max player (example: Nic Batum or Harrison Barnes), and entering the season near the salary floor. The “slow and steady” path would be adding a top-flight prospect from the draft, overpaying for a mid tier free agent (like Amir Johnson this season) on a creatively structured deal, and accepting the idea that the team may not reach the salary floor.

All paths have a bright future, but the 2016-17 projection could range anywhere from division to title contender.

EDIT: This post originally had a typo saying that the team would have $48M in space with just guaranteed contracts accounted for. The actual number is $58M.

If you have any questions on the cap, either generally or in relation to the Celtics players, comment below and I’ll try to respond. You can also follow me @dangercart. The calculations in this post were done using the tool I host (but have not recently updated rosters for) at roster-builder.com. In my opinion, the best site for salary details is basketballinsiders.com.