Hailed by Michael Salfino of the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” the Prospect Digest Handbook is a perennial favorite among baseball enthusiasts, minor league fans, and fantasy general managers. Now back for its fifth season, the Prospect Digest Handbook is the definitive guide to the minor leagues.

Background: With bated breath, the baseball world – not just in the United States – awaited word on where the Japanese Babe Ruth would eventually land. A variety of reports suggested that Ohtani, arguably the galaxy’s premier talent not yet associated with Major League Baseball, narrowed his list down to seven teams: The Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, Mariners, Padres, and Rangers. A smart man would have put his money on Seattle, where General Manager Jerry Dipoto was selling off anything not nailed down – and had threatened to charge players for the soda machines, a la Moneyball – in an effort to garner more international spending money. But it was the unlikely Angels who came out victorious, coming to terms with the international superstar on a deal worth just over $2 million.

Ohtani was a bit overmatched during his first season in the Japan Pacific League, hitting a lackluster .238/.284/.376 which combined with an equally mediocre 46-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 61.2 innings as a pitcher, but there aren’t too many 18-year-old that could have surpassed that level of production either.

The 6-foot-3, 195-pound prospect broke out the following year, 2014, as he slugged an impressive .274/.338/.505 with 17 doubles, one triple, and 10 dingers, tied for the 17th best total in the JPPL. And his work on the mound also took significant strides: he averaged more than 10 strikeouts against just 3.3 walks every nine innings. But it was his work in the Mazda All-Star Game that forced the nation – and world – to take notice: Ohtani unfurled a 101 mph fastball, a then-record for a Japanese pitcher.

His offensive production took a steep nosedive in 2015 – he batted a lowly .202/.252/.376 – but Ohtani remained virtually unhittable as a pitcher. Making 21 appearances for the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters, the flame-throwing righty struck out 196 and walked just 46 en route to tallying a 15-5 win-loss record and a 2.24 ERA.

And then it all came together for the two-way star.

Ohtani looked otherworldly during his 2016 campaign. He finished second in the league in batting average (.322), third in on-base percentage (.416), first in slugging (.588), and eighth in homeruns (22). As a moundsman, Ohtani led the league in strikeouts per nine innings (11.2), finished sixth in strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.87), and finished with the lowest ERA (1.86) among any hurler with at least 100 innings. Oh, yeah, he also broke his own record with a pitch that registered 102.5 mph (163 kmph).

The 2017 season was much the same as well, despite Ohtani missing significant time with an ankle injury: he slugged .332/.403/.540 as a hitter and posted a 29-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 25.1 innings of work.

Projection: It’s been a long, long time since a player with a similar skill set has captivated the collective baseball world’s imagination quite like Ohtani. So the question that begs to be answered is this: Can he live up to the hype?

Well, let’s dig in. First, let’s look at Ohtani, the pitcher. More specifically, let’s focus in on his age-21 season in 2016. Consider the following:

Player Year Age IP ERA Lge ERA K% Lge K% BB% Lge BB% Shohei Ohtani 2016 21 140.0 1.86 3.66 31.75% 18.14% 8.21% 8.47% Yu Darvish 2008 21 200.2 1.88 3.90 27.23% 17.63% 5.76% 7.31% Hideo Nomo 1990 21 235.0 2.91 4.26 29.44% 16.32% 11.18% 9.34% Daisuke Matsuzaka 2002 21 73.1 3.68 3.69 25.83% 18.25% 4.97% 7.19% Hisashi Iwakuma 2002 21 141.1 3.69 3.69 22.05% 18.25% 7.07% 7.19% Masahiro Tanaka 2010 21 155.0 2.50 3.94 18.51% 18.53% 4.98% 7.78%

With respect to the league average, Ohtani’s strikeout percentage was the best among the group and his walk percentage was the second worst. But here’s the thing: of the three other pitchers to fan at least 25% during their age-21 season, Nomo and Matsukaza battled control issues once they moved stateside. I think Darvish’s first season in the big leagues, 2012, is a solid comparison for Ohtani in 2018, perhaps with a slightly higher walk rate. Darvish finished that season with the following line: 191.1 IP, 10.4 K/9, 4.19 BB/9, and a 3.90 ERA. Of course, that’s assuming the elbow ligament that’s already acting up, won’t be a problem moving forward.

Now what about his ability as a hitter? Well, consider the following:

Player Year Age PA BB% Lge BB% K% Lge K% ISO Lge ISO Shohei Ohtani 2016 21 283 14.14% 8.58% 25.65% 18.01% 0.266 0.116 Hideki Matsui 1995 21 569 10.90% 9.28% 16.34% 17.56% 0.198 0.153

Ohtani walked at a higher frequency, showed far superior power, but went down swinging at an alarming rate. So let’s have a little fun.

Focusing on Ohtani’s peripherals and power relative to the league average, here’s a list of MLB hitters to come within a similar range (relative to the MLB average) in 2017: Joey Gallo. I’d be surprised if Ohtani tops a .260 batting average, but his secondary skills, like Gallo, will make him a valuable commodity.

Ceiling: 7.0- to 7.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

2. Jo Adell, CF

Background: Equipped with the club’s earliest pick in the draft since the turn of the century when former GM Bill Stoneman grabbed prep lefty Joe Torres with the tenth overall pick, the Angels of Anaheim grabbed tools laden center fielder Jo Adell in the opening round last June. Adell, the tenth overall pick, looked at ease with the transition to wood during his debut – first by slugging .288/.351/.542 with 16 extra-base hits in 31 Arizona Summer League games and then turning his performance up a notch upon his promotion to Orem in the Pioneer League (.376/.411/.518). When the dust finally settled, the 6-foot-2, 195-pound Kentucky native batted a robust .325/.376/.532 with 11 doubles, eight triples, five homeruns, and eight stolen bases (in 10 attempts).

Projection: After signing for the at-slot-bonus of $4,376,800, Adell instantly became one of the most intriguing five-tool players in the minor leagues – despite a shoulder injury limiting him to just DH duties during his debut. And let’s just say that the supremely talented top pick is off to a stellar start. In fact, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2011, there were 17 prospects in the Arizona Summer League that were 18 years or younger, had at least 125 plate appearances at the level, and posted 130 wRC+. Nearly one-third of that group – Mike Trout, Odubel Herrera, Randal Grichuk, Rymer Liriano, Jaff Decker, and Cedric Hunter – went on to become big league players.

Adell, a potential future All-Star, runs, hits for power and average, reportedly touched the upper 90s on a high school mound, and profiles as an above-average defender. What’s not to like? He’s punched his ticket to full season ball and a quick jaunt to High Class A shouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility in 2018 either.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

3. Jahmai Jones, CF

Background: After a hellacious first month of the season, Jones, who hit a rancid .167/.211/.292, quickly found his footing and simply never looked back. The 2015 second round pick slugged an impressive .281/.355/.437 with seven doubles, a pair of triples, and five homeruns to go along with eight stolen bases (in 10 attempts) over his next 41 games with the Burlington Bees of the Midwest League. The front office bumped the Georgia-born outfielder up to the California League in late July – and, of course, he didn’t miss a beat. Overall, Jones, the 70th overall pick three years ago, compiled an aggregate .282/.348/.446 triple-slash line with 29 doubles, seven triples, 14 homeruns, and 27 stolen bases – all being career bests. He’s sporting a career .281/.353/.422 mark over his first 231 minor league games.

Projection: I offered up some tepid optimism about Jones in last year’s book, writing:

Rock solid for a six-foot player. Jones offers up an intriguing package of offensive skills – at a premium defensive position: above-average speed, strong contact skills, a decent eye at the plate, and doubles power. He’s still several years away from making a contribution in the big leagues but in a system completely bereft of offensive talent, Jones rises up to be one of the better bats. Here’s your word of warning though: there were 49 qualified bats in the Pioneer League, 17 of them posted a 121 wRC+ or better.”

Fast forward a season and Jones, even in a vastly improved system, is still one of the best bats developing down on the Angels’ farm. He shows a decent eye at the plate, 20-homer potential, above-average speed, and the ability to hit .300 if everything breaks well. He’s been a bit rough defensively: according to Clay Davenport’s metrics, he posted cost Burlington five runs in the outfield. I could easily see him settling into a Jacque Jones-type career: .277/.326/.448 with a 100-ish wRC+.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

4. Griffin Canning, RHP

Background: A late round pick of the Rockies following a dominant senior season at Santa Margarita High School after he led the school to the 2014 CIF SS DI Championship. Canning, a slight-framed 6-foot-2, 180-pound right-hander, is just the latest promising prospect to come out of the Bruins’ pitching factory over the past several seasons. He began his collegiate career with a bang, throwing 63.2 innings while fanning 66 and walking just six as a true freshman. The hard-throwing California native finished the season with a 7-1 record to go along with a 2.97 ERA. His walk rate, 0.84 BB/9, was easily the best mark on the club. Canning followed that up with another solid year: in 15 starts with UCLA, he threw 109.1 innings of work – an increase of nearly 75% – with an impeccable 95-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio, though he was hampered by a bit of bad luck as he posted a 3.70 ERA. Once again, his walk rate, 1.73 BB/9, paced the school’s pitching staff by a wide margin; he topped runner-up Kyle Molnar by nearly 0.50 BB/9.

Last year, Canning put together his finest season to date: he threw a career high 119.0 innings while posting an impressive 140-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio en route to finishing the year with a 7-4 record and a 2.34 ERA. The Angels snagged him with the 47th overall pick last June. He did not appear in a minor league game after signing for $1,459,000 – saving the club roughly $200,000 from their bonus pool.

Projection: Per the usual, here’s the analysis for Canning heading into the draft last season:

“Consider the following career comparisons between Canning and some ex-Bruins pitchers:

Canning’s numbers don’t come close to the dominance of Cole and Bauer, who were drafted with the first and third overall picks in the 2011 draft. But his peripherals are significantly better than Kaprielian, who was the Yankees top pick, 16th overall, in the 2015 draft. But let’s take it a step further and compare each of the aforementioned hurlers’ final season at the school:

Player IP ERA K/9 B/9 Griffin Canning 102.1 2.55 10.91 2.46 Gerrit Cole 114.1 3.31 9.37 1.89 Trevor Bauer 136.2 1.25 13.37 2.37 James Kaprielian 106.2 2.02 9.62 2.78

Again, we see Canning’s numbers compare favorably to all three previous early first round picks. His strikeout rate ranks second and his walk rate third among the group. So, let’s take it one more step further. Consider the following little nugget:

Canning, of course, would be the 16th of the group if the season ended at the time of this writing.

The current Bruin ace misses an impressive amount of bats, limits walks (though it’s been trending in the wrong direction in each of the past two seasons), and he has a lengthy history of success at a top school. Judging by history, he’s likely to find his way into the Top 15 or so picks come June. Canning has the potential to develop into a #2-type pitcher – if everything goes well. At worst, he looks like a nice, safe mid-rotation caliber arm.”

Needless to say, it looks like the Angels found terrific value by selecting the hard-throwing right-hander with the 47th overall pick.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

5. Brandon Marsh, RF

Background: A second round pick out of Buford High School two years ago, Marsh waited until 2017 to make his professional debut – courtesy of a back issue, or at least the front office taking the cautious approach to a back issue. Anyway, the 6-foot-4, 210-pound behemoth quickly made up for lost time in the advanced rookie leagues. In 30 games with the Orem Owlz, the lefty-swinging outfielder slugged an impressive .350/.396/.548, adding 13 doubles, five triples, four homeruns, and 10 stolen bases (in 12 total attempts). His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the Pioneer League average mark by 25%.

Projection: Ah, yes, the Pioneer League: home to bountiful offensive numbers. So much so, in fact, that since 2006 there has been 51 instances in which a player has batted at least .350 with a minimum of 150 plate appearances. Let’s dive into some more Pioneer League numbers to add some proper context:

Between 2006 and 2012, enough time for a prospect to make it the big leagues, just 11 players have posted a 120 wRC+ during their age 19-season in the Pioneer League. Of those 11, eight of them – Chris Carter, Josh Bell, Jean Segura, Billy Hamilton, Wilin Rosario, Gerardo Parra, Rafael Ortega, and Joc Pederson – eventually made it to the big leagues.

The more impressive part: six of those aforementioned eight players went on to become productive big league bats – Carter (109 wRC+), Bell (109 wRC+), Segura (95 wRC+), Rosario (94 wRC+), Parra (90 wRC+), and Pederson (115 wRC+).

Granted, it’s a relatively small sample size. But Marsh, like his outfield counterpart Jo Adell, is off to a solid start to his career. Marsh has power, speed, and consistently makes contact. Just keep an eye on his below-average patience at the plate.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2020

6. Jose Suarez, LHP

Background: Equipped with the frame of a Boy Scout Lean-To, Suarez, nonetheless, is forcing pundits and analysts to take note. The five-foot-nothing, 170-pound lefty out of Venezuela continued to rack up strikeouts with the best of ‘em in the lowest levels of the minor leagues. After a brief foray into the Dominican Summer League three years ago, Suarez split his time between two stateside rookie leagues in 2016, throwing a combined 44.2 innings while fanning 53 and walking 14. He followed that up with an even more impressive campaign in 2017: making a career best 15 starts, 12 of them coming with Burlington in the Midwest League, Suarez punched out 90 hitters, while walking only 22, in 68.2 innings of work.

Projection: Suarez earned a brief write-up in last year’s book as part of the Keep An Eye On section:

“18-year-old lefty averaged nearly 11 K/9 with a sub-3.0 walk rate in the Arizona Summer League. He could be something, or just as easily be nothing at all.”

Well, his future is far from certain one year later, but he’s quickly closing in on becoming something – as opposed to being nothing at all. In fact, consider the following:

But here’s another little tidbit: seven of those aforementioned pitchers – Kershaw, Duffy, Miller, McGee, Urias, Collins, and Smith – all achieved the feat before 2013. Five of those seven went on to become impact big league arms. A sixth, Urias, was one of the top arms in the minors over the last couple decades. And Smith, unfortunately, never panned out – in large part due to injuries.

Again, Suarez doesn’t have the track record – OR SIZE – that his potential counterparts did during the same point in their respective careers. But…it’s some pretty impressive company the little lefty’s been keeping.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2020

7. Jaime Barria, RHP

Background: Another one of these intriguing low- to mid-level arms developing in a vastly improved farm system. Barria has moved as quickly and efficiently through the minor league ladder as any prospect in recent memory, reaching the Pacific Coast League during his age-20 season. After making quick work of the California League at the start of the season, Barria made the move up to the minors’ toughest challenge, Class AA, for another 12 starts before finishing his fifth professional season in Class AAA. Overall, the 6-foot-1, 210-pound right-hander tossed a career best 141.2 innings of work, striking out 117 while walking just 31 en route to tallying a 2.80 ERA. For his career, he’s averaging 7.2 strikeouts and just 1.7 walks per nine innings.

Projection: There’s something very St. Louis Cardinals-esque about the way Barria has blitzed through the development stage of his professional career. After noting how his strikeout rates came tumbling down quite a bit as he moved away from the rookie leagues in last year’s book, Barria started missing bats at a more acceptable rate last season – a definite plus.

Since 2006 there were just eight pitchers to make more than two starts in the PCL during their age-20 season: Julio Urias, Taijuan Walker, Tyler Skaggs, Will Smith, Jordan Lyles, Martin Perez, Madison Bumgarner, and, of course, Jaime Barria. Urias’ future, despite being a bit murky due to injuries, should be bright. Walker’s re-established himself as one of the premier young arms in the big leagues. When healthy Skaggs has been quite good in the Angels and Diamondbacks rotations. Smith has been one of the best relievers over the past several years. Lyles has been a bust. Perez is a league average starter. And Bumgarner is, well, Bumgarner. Obviously, Barria’s inclusion in that group doesn’t necessarily mean future big league success, but the odds are certainly tilted in his favor. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him carve out a role as a right-hander version of Martin Perez.

Ceiling: 2.0

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

8. Kevin Maitan, SS

Background: The Venezuelan youngster was caught up in the Atlanta Braves international free agency fiasco and re-granted his free agency. And the Angels, whose farm system has undergone a severe transformation in a short amount of time, swooped in and signed the switch-hitting teenager to a $2.2 million. Maitan, by the way, was allowed to keep the $4.25 million the Braves had originally signed him to a couple years ago. Already checking in at 6-foot-2, 190-pounds; Maitan made his highly anticipated professional debut last season in the Braves’ organization, hitting an aggregate .241/.290/.340 with just eight doubles, one triple, and a pair of homeruns in 42 games between both stateside rookie leagues. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, was a whopping 28% below the league average mark.

Projection: The young teenage shortstop prodigy got off to a solid start in the Gulf Coast League, hitting .314/.351/.400 through his first nine games before the Braves decided he was ready for the advanced rookie league. And, well, he wasn’t. In 33 games in the Appalachian League, the twice-graced bonus baby batted a lowly .220/.273/.323.

Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2013, here’s the list of 17-year-old hitters to post a wRC+ below 83 with a sub-.100 ISO in the Appalachian League (min. 100 PA): Juan Silverio, Jose Barraza, Gabriel Noriega, and Jay Austin, none of whom made it to the big leagues as of 2017.

It’s a nice little gamble by the Angels. But, right now, Maitan looks incredibly overrated.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

9. Luis Pena, RHP

Background: After a wildly successful – and highly underrated – season in the Midwest League two years, Pena showed little signs of slowly down as the organization pushed the 21-year-old Dominican-born hurler up to Inland Empire to start 2017. And after a rocky first start against the San Jose Giants (he allowed seven earned runs in 3.0 IP), Pena fanned an incredible 143 hitters and walked 54 over his next 128.1 innings of work – including back-to-back performances in early July in which he struck out 22 and allowed just three runs in 17.0 innings against Lake Elsinore and Rancho Cucamonga. The front office bumped him up to the Southern League for four final starts to close out his year. Overall, he finished the season with an impressive 167-to-67 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 151.1 innings to go along with – an admittedly deceiving – 5.00 ERA.

Projection: I was incredibly high on Pena heading into the year, writing the following in last year’s book:

“One of the least talked about prospects in all of the minor leagues. Pena began the year working as a multiple inning swing-man for the Burlington Bees. And he didn’t get his first crack at consistently turning over a lineup until late-July. But once he moved into the club’s rotation he was just as impressive: 43.2 IP, 49 K, 12 BB.

His frame size is [potentially going to] be a limiting factor, but as long as he can navigate his way through the injury nexus without more than a few hiccups, he could be one of the pop-up prospects in the minor leagues over the next year or two. There’s some big league rotation potential buried in his stocky right arm.”

Well, fast forward one year and the analysis still looks spot on. In fact, consider the following little tidbits:

Among all hurlers under the age of 22 in the California League last season, Pena’s strikeout percentage, 25.5%, ranked as the sixth best mark (min. 60 IP).

Among all High Class A pitchers with at least 100 innings, Pena’s K% narrowly missed the Top 10, coming in at number 11.

Pena’s still largely flying under the radar – likely in large part due to his frame size. But any pitcher that’s heading into a full season in Class AA at the age of 22 and has averaged nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings for his career deserves a long, long look. Again, he could be a nice backend arm or a potentially dominant relief piece.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2018

10. Chris Rodriguez, RHP

Background: Recipient of one of the bigger bonuses handed out to fourth round picks in 2016. Rodriguez, who signed for roughly $900K, has the makings of a potential steal after his first full season in the minor leagues – despite what an unsightly ERA would suggest. The 6-foot-2, 185-pound right-hander split last season between the Orem Owlz of the Pioneer League and the Burlington Bees in Low Class A, throwing a combined 57.0 innings of work with 56 punch outs and just 14 free passes. And, of course, that sickly looking 6.16 ERA. His 3.73 FIP helps paint a more complete picture.

Projection: Rodriguez had such an odd year, looking at times like a little league pitcher (his first start of the year he allowed seven earned runs in two innings) and simply unhittable at other times, like his August 12th start against the Peoria Chiefs when he threw five innings of nearly perfect ball. So let’s have a little fun with the numbers, both good and bad:

During his six worst starts, Rodriguez posted a 16.94 ERA in 17 innings of work. For those counting at home that’s 32 earned runs, by the way. Over the course of his other eight starts, he allowed a total of seven earned runs in 40 innings – good enough for a 1.58 ERA.

Rodriguez, who recently turned 19 years old, averaged nearly a swing-and-miss per inning with an impressive feel for the strike zone. Some wonky BABIPs and strand rates, courtesy of those eight craptacular starts, tarnished his overall production. If he can mix in a few less terrible outings, he could be one of the bigger risers in 2018. He looks like a solid backend starter.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2020

Author’s Note: All statistics mentioned were gathered from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, ClayDavenport.com, or Baseball Prospectus.