English wrens seem to be benefiting from climate change Jill Pakenham/BTO

Climate change appears to have helped far more English bird species than it has hindered over the past 50 years.

Out of 68 species that breed in England, 23 had their number significantly affected by climate change between 1966 and 2015. There was a positive effect on 19 of the 23, but it was negative for the other four, researchers at the British Trust for Ornithology and at the government adviser Natural England found.

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The winners include resident species that have benefited from warmer winters, such as long-tailed tits and wrens. The other big beneficiaries have been species from further south expanding their range northwards, such as the little egret, a small heron. For 13 species, climate change helped populations jump more than 10 per cent.


“The magnitude of changes that we are seeing really show something significant happening. Birds are good indicators because in many cases they are towards the top of the food chain, reliant on the insects and the habitats beneath them,” says James Pearce-Higgins of the BTO, who worked with Humphrey Crick of Natural England on the study.

Citizen science

The pair took half a century of citizen science records on bird numbers to build a model predicting population growth for species. To determine if a species had been notably affected by climate change, they ran the model both with and without the changes in temperature and rainfall wrought over the period. Serious declines of some species, including the corn bunting, would have been even worse without climate change.

But as the world keeps warming, “some of those positives may well switch to negatives”, says Pearce-Higgins. Climate change is just one pressure on birds, with land use change and intensive farming both big drivers in England. “There’s building evidence that by reducing these other pressures – by having more protected sites, more nature reserves and managing them better – we can help these populations cope much more with warming,” says Pearce-Higgins.

Journal reference: Bird Study, DOI: 10.1080/00063657.2019.1630360

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