Clinton and reforming politics and government

From:sgreenberg@gqrr.com To: john.podesta@gmail.com CC: sgreenberg@gqrr.com Date: 2016-01-26 20:18 Subject: Clinton and reforming politics and government

John, Let me follow-up on our conversation about political and government reform and Hillary’s opportunity to move. I will begin with the short-term — both the short-term opportunity with money politics but also the price you may be paying for your silence on the issue. This is based on Donnelly’s Every Voice research. I will then, go to the medium term – where I think you can embrace reform of politics and government and differentiate from Sanders and use the primary to position for the general in a powerful way. This is based on the WVWV research. But you can’t get there unless Hillary confidently makes this part of her critique of what is wrong with the country and her bold agenda to bring change. Her concern about authenticity and credibility on this issue is understandable but not right. Only by taking up reform can you avoid the political fallout from being complicit in the current system. The billionaires, corporations and special interests buying their government is a voting issue – as you can see in real time. Democrats, the RAE and white working class believe the big donors are white, rich, older and male and make their money in oil, coal and finance. They buy a government that does nothing for the middle class and the new majority. As a result, a large, growing and intense majorities embrace reform: immediate disclosure, barring corporate contributions, and empowering small donations with taxpayer funds. We tested Hillary Clinton giving voice to her support for that program. [cid:9F2BA87F-4B13-4E0F-86C1-F71C0D21398D] Let’s be honest. A Democratic candidate with the same message gets 13 points more support. That says you are vulnerable on this issue, and getting ahead of it in the short-term by confidently addressing it. The polling is clear: when people hear the Clinton affirmative reform message before the attack, the attack is greatly diminished in power and your reform message greatly strengthened. These are the attacks we tested. They take a toll, and Sanders knows what he is doing. But there is a clear way out. [cid:F8283A02-F0E2-4E6B-83BE-0608423547FA] But the answer is not silence. The answer is voters hearing you on reform. When voters hear Clinton’s reform advocacy first (before the attacks), the attacks falter and Clinton gets a dramatically more positive response from voters. [cid:9AEC313A-127B-47B1-A139-9B6572EC16E1] So, short-term, the answer is embracing this critique, vision and policies. Distinguishing Clinton using political and government reform There is nothing more important politically than Clinton getting ahead of money and politics. It is a pre-requisite for getting heard on change and government activism, for competing and beating Sanders and establishing a key contrast with the Republicans. With Trump and Cruz attacking crony capitalism, do not assume we own reform in the general election. With people struggling financially, they want to make sure government works for them and they want to make sure taxpayers get their money’s worth. That includes many base Democratic voters – and here, you can distinguish yourself from Sanders – indeed, use Sanders as a way to get heard in the primaries ahead. Here are voter reactions to political and governmental reforms. [cid:47E031F2-9E32-47BA-BE37-631335724710] In regression models, advocating political reforms has the biggest impact on the vote and turnout, but so does advocating reform of government. Simplifying the tax code is impactful because voters believe that will reduce costs and the influence of special interest and tax lawyers. But note that many base Democratic voters want to see government reformed. They want their money’s worth too. Democrats, blacks and Hispanics, millennials, and white unmarried women embrace eliminating a trillion dollars in tax breaks and subsidies and immediately auditing the entire federal government and publishing the results online. [cid:474B82A8-9D73-42D7-ABF1-6BED091F020B] What we talked about was Hillary Clinton embracing reform in a bigger way once past Iowa. By expanding political reform to include reform of government, Hillary can distinguish herself from Sanders. It will help her both in the primary and in the general election ahead. There is genuine opportunity Happy to talk further. I am writing a separate email on the other topic. Stan