'Move global events as well or better.' Key long-standing relationships with vital US partners are crumbling. Bush and Rice have alienated America's friends, leaving a soft-power vacuum filled by nations not naturally known to show Dems any special favors.

Chilling is the only word that describes the Denver Group's assessment.

A dramatic global realignment appears to be in progress (and quickening) as the result of several factors: o The loss of US influence as a result of the Iraq war

o A view across the globe resulting from Abu Ghraib and range of missteps that the US has lost the moral high ground it had enjoyed for decades

o A feeling among global leaders that the US is without a coherent foreign policy strategy...a belief that has started feeding on itself and has emboldened US adversaries

o China's rise, its smooth diplomatic technique, its re-alignment with Russia and its aggressive, clever drive to form new alliances with nations extending from Asia and Africa to South America

o Russia's recent rise combined with Russian President Putin's domestic popularity and his reputation for effectively standing up to the West

o The rise of non-aligned nations emboldened by the inability of the US to effectively use the extraordinary power it possesses

o A view among key global leaders that the US will be bogged down in Iraq for many years (a view heightened by significantly by President Bush's September 13 Iraq speech), thus distracted and unable to respond effectively to key political moves by the range of international players

o A recognition by the international community that the Bush Administration not only hasn't been able to deal effectively with non-state actors (e.g. terror groups like Al Qaeda) but they are holding their own or starting to win. As a result of these and other factors, the world, from the top tier players to fringe nations to isolated political movements and ideologies, has recognized that a giant vacuum in global power has formed...and they've been moving to take advantage of it with no resistance from an essentially powerless US foreign policy establishment. Russia and China have beaten the US in forming critical energy alliances in Central Asia, in the Caucasus, in Africa and even in South America. At the recent APEC Summit, China was the 800 pound gorilla and President Bush was relegate to "also there" status. In 2007, the US now longer guides the world...at least two others (Russia and China) exercise power more effectively than the US. In 2008 and beyond that number may well expand and many think this may actually stabilize the world.

The Rise of the Latin American Anti-American Alliance hasn't been a topic of particular interest at DKOS. The Denver Group is, however, far from sanguine about the corrosion of America's influence in Latin America under Bush; and about the impact this new anti-American alliance will have on the very cornerstone of America's hemispheric policy. This erosion will surely place severe constraints on any Dem administration in the future. America's adversaries aren't likely to willing surrender hard-won positions just because a Dem sits in the Oval Office.

Latin America and the Rise of the Anti-American Left * In 1823, US President James Monroe issued the Monroe Doctrine, naming all of the Western Hemisphere, and particularly Latin America under the United States' sphere of influence. Nearly 200 years later, the Monroe Doctrine looks like it could crumble

In 2005-2006, Latin American politics have been veering to the left with the electoral victories of Evo Morales in Bolivia, Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, and Rafael Correa in Ecuador (and a near victory by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico). These new leftist leaders add to current leftist regimes in Argentina, Brazil and Cuba. Perhaps the most outspoken of the leftist leaders is US opponent Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, who was just reelected by a 23% margin. Already, Chavez has been making loud and brash statements on the world stage, pledging allegiance to Iran, denouncing President Bush and the United States at the United Nations, and signing trade pacts with China. Mercosur, the regional trade agreement instituted to promote free trade throughout South America (similar to NAFTA), is gaining supporters and seeks to give Latin America the same economic clout that the US and EU have.... The Ascendant Tiger: China's journey to the top * Well-planned, innovative, quiet strategies on the diplomatic, economic, educational and military fronts are helping China build its power more quickly and effectively than any other global entity.

China is building a sphere of influence that extends from Asia and Africa to South America. From the way it negotiates natural resource contracts to its new foreign aid strategies to its new military alliances, China is usurping power from its neighbors, the US and Europe. Global Thought believes China's economic growth and its evolving relationships with Russia, India, Pakistan and potentially Iran, along with its quickly growing influence on non-aligned nations combined with the vacuum being created by the decline in US influence could well make it a power to match or exceed the US global political power far sooner than anyone has thought. Chinese investment may in fact resurrect oil production in Iran�Global Thought believes its conceivable that China could end up the winner in Iraq also. Indeed, China at present is more than matching US power as is obvious by its daily GPB positioning relative to the US. Because many Global Thought leaders believe the US has no strategy to counter China's rise, watch for China to stay to the positive side of the US icon from some time to come.

Of course , the 'good' news always comes last. The threats facing us all have dramatically increased under George Bush, not least because Bush is simply following Republican tradition, handing out nukes like candy, eviscerating the imperfect, but highly necessary, nuclear non-proliferation treaties, and promoting policies that dramatically increase the risks of a nuclear terrorist attack.

Armageddon Watch: The new arms race * Iran offers to share nuclear technology with its Gulf neighbors and Russia looks to assist Brazil and Argentina with nuclear development...plower plants not bombs but how far is the jump to weaponry?

A global arms race has begun. The lesson from Iraq, that a country shouldn't bluff about having WMDs, is spreading. North Korea and Iran are just the first to be making practical use of that lesson. The head of the IAEA, Mohamed El Baradei, estimates that about 40 countries could develop nuclear weapons. The concern of thought leaders is not, however, that the US or Russia will be challenged. A big worry is that nuclear weapons will fall into the hands of non-state ideological, religious or political movements where retaliation is impossible .... Thought leaders by a wide margin believe the shattering of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, diminishing global stability and the activist foreign policy of the US over the last 6 years have inched the nuclear genie further out of the bottle. In recent days, Iran's neighbors (e.g., Saudi Arabia) have heated up their talk about beginning nuclear programs. Iran cleverly has now offered to share nuclear technology within the region. Whether Israeli PM Olmert intentionally let his tongue slip about Israel's nukes (as a subtle threat) or did it unintentionally, the race appears to be heating up

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The Next War. Shelby Steele's violent polemic calling for a transformational change in the way America wages war points the way to the next conflagration. The conflagration is being planned right now. The notion that this administration will be constrained by Congress or rule of law is patently false. The narrative is nuclear and involves Syria, North Korea, Pakistan, Turkey, Israel, Iran, Russia, China, America and, of course, the US troops stuck in Iraq.