The Arizona Cardinals have the first pick in the draft this year. Many believe it is the perfect opportunity to add the best player in the draft to improve the team. Others believe they should trade the top pick to acquire other selections, thus adding more talent to the team.

However, some statistics seem to suggest trading down would be a foolish move, especially if it means moving out of the top five.

Using a rather low standard of success, Vincent Richardson of Panthers blog The Riot Report quantified the success rate of first-round picks over the last eight years. Success was determined by an Approximate Value of five. AV is a Pro Football Reference statistic used to quantify a player’s overall value. A five is a decent, unspectacular season, so averaging a five would be to be, on average, a decent but unspectacular player.

He found that picks in the top five of the draft have a significantly higher success rate than any other part of the first round. Pick Nos. 1-5 of the draft since 2011 have a success rate of 77.1 percent. The rest of the first round is at about 50 percent overall.

When it comes to the Cardinals trading down, the potential trade partners are teams who are seeking quarterbacks like the New York Giants at No. 6, the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 7 or the Miami Dolphins at No. 13.

Considering the success rate of all first rounders since 2011 and the fact the Cardinals simply have not been that great in the first round overall for years, trading down seems like a risky proposition.

Many feel there are only three or four blue-chip prospects in the draft. The Cardinals have the chance to select the very best. If they don’t land one of those players, it seems like a waste.

Should a team like the Oakland Raiders, who have the fourth overall pick, call the Cardinals and make an offer, then that is a trade to consider. They would still be in the top five and would acquire more picks.

Anything less than that is a statistical risk they probably not should take.

Gallery Draft Wire's latest 4-round mock draft has Cardinals landing Quinnen Williams, more View 4 photos

Listen to the latest from Cards Wire’s Jess Root on his podcast, Rise Up, See Red. Subscribe on Apple podcasts or Stitcher Radio.

Other apps just deliver sports. The USA TODAY Sportswire app lets you pick specific team sites to get only the news that you want to know.

newsletter Get 10 hot stories each day Thanks for signing up.

Please check your email for a confirmation. Thanks for signing up.

Please check your email for a confirmation.