After round 2 of the AFLW season – nearly a third of the way through the competition – HPN thought that it was fair time for reflection on the strengths and prospects of each side.

These rankings are guided, but not entirely determined, by the HPN Team Ratings, which early in the season tend to be very jumpy. For reference though, this is currently how the teams look to our system right now:

Some of the figures are likely unsustainable, especially anything north of 140% of the competition average or below about 75%.

Also worth noting is the Player Approximate Value (PAV) values of the season to date – which are also volatile at this point:

Player Club PAVOff PAVDef PAVMid PAV Total Emma Kearney WB 15.3 12.0 19.4 46.6 Dana Hooker FRE 14.7 4.7 17.1 36.5 Daisy Pearce MELB 5.4 5.1 25.2 35.7 Phoebe McWilliams GWS 30.5 2.3 2.3 35.1 Ellie Blackburn WB 14.5 8.4 9.4 32.3 Nicola Stevens CARL 8.6 16.3 5.8 30.7 Elise O'Dea MELB 7.0 8.3 15.3 30.7 Brianna Davey CARL 2.6 22.9 4.3 29.9 Chelsea Randall ADEL 10.3 14.3 3.8 28.4 Darcy Vescio CARL 13.2 9.9 4.9 28.1 Alexandra Anderson BL 8.4 3.5 16.1 28.0 Richelle Cranston MELB 17.8 -0.4 10.4 27.9 Katie Brennan WB 20.2 2.4 4.2 26.8 Angelica Gogos WB 6.9 5.2 14.0 26.1 Alison Downie CARL 9.6 12.7 3.8 26.1 Tayla Harris CARL 11.4 8.0 5.2 24.6 Christina Bernardi COLL 13.6 3.7 7.1 24.4 Aasta O'Connor WB 10.1 7.8 5.7 23.6 Shelley Scott MELB 16.7 -0.1 7.0 23.6 Emily Bates BL 3.0 5.6 14.1 22.7 Jamie Stanton BL 2.5 7.6 12.4 22.5 Erin McKinnon GWS 12.9 4.9 4.6 22.4 Chloe Molloy COLL 2.6 17.1 2.3 22.0 Jess Hosking CARL 6.0 7.4 8.4 21.8 Emma King COLL 12.5 0.8 8.4 21.7 Kirsty Lamb WB 6.9 6.0 8.8 21.6 Tegan Cunningham MELB 17.3 0.2 4.1 21.6 Ruth Wallace ADEL 14.5 2.6 4.4 21.6 Jess Wuetschner BL 14.9 2.1 4.6 21.5 Amelia Barden COLL 8.4 4.1 9.0 21.5 Melissa Caulfield FRE 14.1 1.9 5.3 21.3 Katie Loynes CARL 6.6 7.7 6.6 21.0 Kate Hore MELB 10.8 2.0 8.0 20.8 Jacinda Barclay GWS 16.9 1.3 2.5 20.7 Stephanie Chiocci COLL 4.5 7.8 8.3 20.6 Karen Paxman MELB 5.9 1.1 13.3 20.4 Ashleigh Guest MELB 3.2 10.9 6.2 20.3 Brooke Lochland WB 9.9 3.5 6.8 20.3 Hannah Scott WB 3.8 14.2 1.6 19.6 Emma Zielke BL 3.0 3.2 12.6 18.7 Aliesha Newman MELB 11.3 1.7 5.6 18.7 Melissa Hickey MELB 4.3 7.4 6.8 18.5 Kate Lutkins BL 3.0 9.1 6.4 18.4 Danielle Hardiman CARL 0.0 17.5 0.8 18.3 Ashlee Atkins FRE 10.4 2.1 5.8 18.2 Sarah Hosking CARL 4.0 6.1 7.5 17.6 Aisling Utri WB 8.4 7.0 2.0 17.3 Lauren Brazzale CARL 7.3 1.5 8.5 17.3 Cecilia McIntosh COLL 5.8 6.8 4.6 17.3 Tahlia Randall BL 6.4 -1.1 11.9 17.2 Sharni Webb BL 5.0 0.6 11.6 17.1 Breann Moody CARL 4.6 7.2 5.0 16.8 Kara Donnellan FRE 1.8 4.5 10.4 16.8 Emma Humphries MELB 4.9 5.9 6.0 16.8 Isabel Huntington WB 16.2 -1.4 1.9 16.8 Brittany Gibson BL 4.5 1.3 10.9 16.7 Jenna Bruton WB 8.4 3.4 4.6 16.4 Ebony Marinoff ADEL 2.1 5.1 9.0 16.1 Maddison Gay CARL 5.3 2.6 8.1 16.0 Britt Tully GWS 4.2 3.2 8.5 15.9 Lily Mithen MELB 2.7 3.0 10.2 15.9 Gabby O'Sullivan FRE 6.1 1.7 7.9 15.7 Alicia Eva GWS 2.5 5.1 8.0 15.6 Gabriella Pound CARL 0.0 13.6 1.9 15.5 Sarah Allan ADEL 2.3 11.6 1.6 15.5 Amy Lavell FRE 13.4 0.4 1.6 15.5 Melissa Kuys COLL 4.5 5.9 5.0 15.5 Jessica Dal Pos GWS 4.2 4.6 6.4 15.2 Justine Mules ADEL 5.2 5.0 4.9 15.1 Amanda Farrugia GWS 2.5 6.9 5.5 15.0 Courtney Gum GWS 3.4 2.9 8.7 15.0 Eloise Jones ADEL 8.3 3.2 3.3 14.8 Breanna Koenen BL 3.0 4.9 6.8 14.7 Libby Birch WB 0.8 12.0 1.7 14.5 Ashley Sharp FRE 6.7 3.7 3.9 14.3 Dayna Cox ADEL 1.0 11.6 1.7 14.3 Sabrina Frederick-Traub BL 7.2 3.4 3.5 14.0 Lara Filocamo FRE 3.1 3.7 7.1 13.9 Rhiannon Metcalfe ADEL 8.3 1.4 4.2 13.8 Erin Hoare MELB 5.4 0.3 8.0 13.7 Hayley Miller FRE 4.9 1.2 7.4 13.5 Jasmine Garner COLL 8.7 0.0 4.6 13.3 Shae Audley CARL 1.3 3.4 8.3 13.1 Lisa Webb FRE 3.7 3.9 5.5 13.0 Shannon Campbell BL 1.0 9.7 2.3 13.0 Rebecca Beeson GWS 3.4 5.7 3.7 12.8 Elle Bennetts GWS 3.4 4.4 5.0 12.8 Lauren Spark WB 0.0 12.4 0.3 12.7 Jenna McCormick ADEL 10.3 1.2 1.1 12.7 Jordan Zanchetta BL 1.0 1.7 9.7 12.4 Jaimee Lambert COLL 4.5 1.7 6.0 12.3 Stevie-Lee Thompson ADEL 3.1 6.7 2.1 11.9 Georgia Gee CARL 4.0 5.0 2.8 11.8 Kate McCarthy BL 4.0 0.6 7.1 11.6 Bonnie Toogood WB 5.3 2.5 3.7 11.6 Stacey Livingstone COLL 0.0 9.2 2.2 11.5 Nicole Hildebrand BL 0.5 7.4 3.3 11.1 Catherine Phillips MELB 1.1 4.7 5.0 10.8 Nicole Callinan WB 5.3 2.5 2.8 10.7 Lauren Pearce MELB 6.3 1.8 2.5 10.6 Belinda Smith FRE 0.6 6.3 3.6 10.5 Jess Duffin COLL 0.6 9.4 0.5 10.5 Kaitlyn Ashmore BL 6.4 -0.2 4.2 10.5 Jasmyn Hewett ADEL 4.4 5.3 0.7 10.4 Leah Kaslar BL 0.5 7.9 2.0 10.4 Evangeline Gooch FRE 0.6 7.7 2.1 10.3 Iilish Ross COLL -0.6 10.3 0.6 10.3 Sarah Perkins ADEL 9.6 -0.1 0.8 10.3 Monique Conti WB 2.3 3.0 4.9 10.2 Sophie Li CARL 1.3 5.2 3.6 10.1 Angela Foley ADEL 2.1 5.5 2.5 10.1 Arianna Clarke BL 2.5 4.5 3.1 10.1 Deanna Berry WB 2.3 2.5 4.9 9.7 Meg Downie MELB -0.5 6.0 4.2 9.6 Stephanie Cain FRE 1.2 6.6 1.7 9.5 Laura Duryea MELB -1.6 10.9 0.2 9.4 Katherine Gillespie-Jones CARL 1.3 6.9 0.9 9.0 Rheanne Lugg ADEL 2.1 4.8 2.1 8.9 Caitlyn Edwards COLL 0.6 4.7 3.5 8.9 Ebony Antonio FRE 0.6 5.6 2.6 8.9 Leah Mascall FRE 2.4 2.1 4.3 8.9 Nat Exon BL 3.6 1.9 3.4 8.8 Sophie Casey COLL 0.0 6.5 2.2 8.7 Eliza Hynes COLL 4.0 0.5 4.1 8.6 Alicia Janz FRE 4.4 0.3 3.8 8.5 Ellie Brush GWS 1.7 5.4 1.3 8.4 Tanya Hetherington GWS -0.8 9.2 0.0 8.3 Cora Staunton GWS 6.8 0.5 0.8 8.1 Emma Grant COLL 0.6 3.6 3.8 8.0 Naomi Ferres WB 2.3 3.0 2.6 7.9 Sally Riley ADEL 4.1 2.1 1.6 7.8 Stacey Barr FRE 2.4 1.7 3.5 7.7 Emma Swanson GWS 2.5 2.6 2.5 7.6 Jessica Allan ADEL 4.7 2.5 0.5 7.6 Madeleine Boyd GWS 0.6 5.3 1.6 7.5 Bianca Jakobsson MELB 0.0 5.0 2.4 7.4 Lauren Tesoriero COLL 0.6 3.4 3.4 7.4 Kate Shierlaw CARL 5.5 0.4 1.1 6.9 Cassie Davidson FRE 0.0 5.5 1.3 6.8 Renee Forth GWS 0.8 3.4 2.5 6.7 Tiarna Ernst WB 2.9 0.5 3.1 6.5 Georgia Bevan ADEL 2.1 2.9 1.5 6.5 Abbey Holmes ADEL 6.2 0.0 0.2 6.4 Jodie White FRE 3.5 0.5 2.3 6.3 Phoebe Monahan GWS 0.0 5.3 1.0 6.2 Nicola Barr GWS -1.7 6.0 1.8 6.1 Renee Tomkins GWS 0.0 5.6 0.2 5.8 Alyssa Mifsud MELB 4.9 -0.2 1.2 5.8 Pepa Randall GWS 0.0 4.3 1.3 5.6 Bree White COLL -1.3 4.7 2.2 5.6 Brittany Bonnici COLL 0.0 4.5 0.8 5.4 Brianna Green FRE 1.2 2.0 2.1 5.3 Alex Williams FRE -0.6 5.5 0.2 5.2 Kerryn Harrington CARL -0.7 4.7 1.0 5.1 Tilly Lucas-Rodd CARL 0.0 1.9 3.0 4.9 Sophie Conway BL 4.0 -0.8 1.6 4.8 Katherine Smith MELB -1.6 4.4 1.9 4.6 Maddy Guerin MELB 1.1 0.0 3.4 4.5 Megan Hunt BL 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.2 Daria Bannister WB 2.3 -0.1 1.9 4.1 Talia Radan ADEL -2.1 6.1 0.0 4.1 Tiah Haynes FRE 0.0 3.5 0.4 4.0 Gemma Houghton FRE 1.5 1.0 1.3 3.8 Deni Varnhagen ADEL 0.0 1.8 1.9 3.7 Sarah D'Arcy COLL 3.2 -0.5 0.9 3.7 Maddy Collier GWS 0.0 3.0 0.1 3.1 Brooke Patterson MELB 0.0 2.4 0.2 2.6 Bailey Hunt WB 0.0 2.5 0.0 2.5 Tara Morgan COLL 0.0 2.3 0.1 2.5 Jasmine Grierson MELB 0.0 1.1 1.3 2.4 Jodie Hicks GWS 0.8 0.5 0.9 2.2 Jessica Sedunary ADEL -1.0 0.9 2.1 1.9 Aimee Schmidt GWS 0.8 0.0 0.8 1.7 Moana Hope COLL 0.0 1.4 0.1 1.6 Emma Mackie WB 0.8 0.3 0.4 1.4 Sophie Armitstead ADEL 0.0 1.1 0.1 1.2 Anne Hatchard ADEL 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 Ruby Schleicher COLL -1.3 2.0 0.0 0.7 Sarah Dargan COLL -0.6 -0.3 1.6 0.7 Gabby Collingwood BL 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 Lauren Arnell CARL 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 Natalie Plane CARL 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Sarah Last CARL 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 Rebecca Privitelli GWS -0.8 0.1 0.3 -0.5 Reni Hicks CARL -0.7 -0.1 0.2 -0.6 Louise Stephenson GWS -0.8 -0.1 0.0 -1.0 Hayley Wildes WB -0.8 -0.2 -0.1 -1.0 Holly Whitford COLL -1.9 -0.5 1.2 -1.2

The Power Rankings

1. Melbourne

With our other early favourites dropping games, the Dees look like the presumptive premiership favourite. They’ve got results on the board, can score pretty efficiently, and probably have the best midfield in the game. Daisy Pearce, in the absence of Erin Phillips, is the best midfielder in the game, playing important roles every week even when partially curbed.

The GWS game was a shootout and the Crows couldn’t hang with them in a similarly open match, so our only query would be how well the Dees actually defend when they need to. Right now, a spot in the Grand Final looks theirs to lose.

2. Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs were a huge unknown early in the year and so far they’ve smashed a weak Fremantle and pulled off an impressive win in Brisbane. They won that game in the second quarter through finding marking targets deep in Brisbane’s defence. After that stopped being possible with the loss of Huntington, they settled in to defend in the second half and did so successfully enough, in spite of Brisbane’s weight of inside-50 dominance.

The loss of Huntington for the rest of the season has to put them behind the Dees. Like 2017, a lot rests on the shoulders of Kearney and Blackburn. Kearney is currently sitting atop of the PAV leaderboard due to strong figures for all of defence, forward and midfield value. However, a resurgent O’Connor and a dominant Brennan means that there are at least a couple of other focal points on the ground.

3. Brisbane

The Lions had their first ever regular season loss due to one ripping quarter from a pretty strong looking Bulldogs outfit. They’re now a win behind the top two and may need some luck to get into the grand final but we didn’t see anything to suggest that the Lions’ prowess is diminished relative to the sides below them.

Last year their ability to resist a high number of inside-50s was their trademark, but this year they may have pushed that up the ground a bit to preventing inside-50s occurring in the first place – so far this year their midfield has produced three inside-50s for every two they’ve allowed the opposition.

This week they take on Carlton and Bella Ayre comes in to debut, having been recruited as the structural replacement for Harris. It will be interesting to see how the Lions make the two-target structure work.

4. Adelaide

The Crows were overpowered by both Brisbane and Melbourne in fairly stark fashion, with the Dees punishing them on the scoreboard more heavily. However, Erin Phillips is back this week, and that could be worth a few goals on its own.

The Crows likely need to win the last five games to make the Grand Final, and they need to start this week against the Bulldogs. However, we have seen how dominant and game-breaking Phillips has been, so they still sit this high in our power rankings for now.

5. Carlton

Two wins is still two wins, but Carlton are a fairly unconvincing 2-0. The loss of what we currently have as the league’s most valuable defender in Bri Davey, is sure to hurt them.

The Blues adapted their apparently negating 2018 style extremely well to the conditions against GWS, with a simple “kick long and trap the ball for ball-ups” approach. That’s effective wet weather footy of the kind that’s been viable for a hundred years, but a method that GWS seemed unable to adjust to matching. This week’s match against the Lions in Melbourne is a chance to more seriously prove their credentials.

6. GWS

They’re 0-2 but nearly beating Melbourne does mean something. The team is a very new look team versus last year with a much stronger midfield and more avenues to goal. They get a shot at Collingwood this week in the park at South Yarra, and on exposed form would expect to get the job done for their first win of the year. Like Adelaide, a Grand Final is still possible but they will have to win out, including against strong Adelaide, Bulldogs and Brisbane sides. Stranger things have happened.

7. Fremantle

Fremantle finally found some scoring power against the Pies, their midfield dominating and hitting marking targets up forward more than they’ve ever done before. Freo’s centre was its strength last year, so if they’re finally connecting better with their forwards that’s a positive sign. Beating Collingwood with a huge crowd behind them is one thing, but on the face of it, they shouldn’t come close to Melbourne this week. That isn’t exactly something to be ashamed of, though.

8. Collingwood

There’s just not enough firing talent on the park for the Pies, as they continue to swing positional changes to try to find something that helps. All-Australian ruck Emma King was left deep forward. Hard nut Brittany Bonnici floated around halfback. Hope was tried in a few places upfield in week 1 before being dropped. Duffin and Molloy both have been anchored in defence.

It’s unclear whether the positional “flexibility” is hampering Collingwood or if it’s a symptom of them struggling, but either way, they have looked by far the most lost and incoherent team in the competition for the first two weeks, having problems everywhere but an artificially stacked defensive line.

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