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Bernstein is increasingly concerned consumers are going to keep their current iPhones longer.

The firm’s analyst Toni Sacconaghi reiterated his Market Perform rating and $210 price target for Apple’s stock, predicting that iPhone unit sales volume will fall this year.

“In addition to more durable iPhone offerings, we worry that the combination of a smartphone market that has gone ex-growth and increased iPhone ASPs, especially relative to the market, risks materially pushing out replacement rates for iPhone,” he wrote on Monday, referring to average selling prices. If “consumers hold on to their devices for longer, it could materially lower iPhone unit sales each year, undermining company revenues and profits.”

Apple stock fell 5% to $194.17 on Monday. The company didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

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Sacconaghi cited Apple executive Lisa Jackson, who said in September that the company needed to “design products to last as long as possible.” He also noted the latest version of iOS improved the performance of older iPhones.

The analyst estimates the current replacement cycle for iPhones is 2.7 years on average. If the cycle’s length grows by 6 months, it would lead to annual declines of 6% in unit sales of iPhones for three years, he said

“On net, we see risk-reward on AAPL as relatively balanced at current levels,” he wrote. “We worry (based on FY Q1 guidance) that iPhone units are likely to decline this year, potentially suggesting that ASP increases are unsustainable going forward and note that the stock trades at close to 5 year highs on all valuation metrics.”

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Other analysts are also becoming more pessimistic about iPhone sales.

Longbow Research said on Monday the firm’s checks show Apple is cutting production orders for its latest models.

On Thursday, KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst John Vinh said inventories of iPhone XRs are piling up at stores due to weak sales.

And last week, the Nikkei Asian Review reported that the tech giant is telling its suppliers to cancel plans for additional iPhone XR production lines.

Write to Tae Kim at tae.kim@barrons.com