Two new national polls show that Trump is still weighed down by his unpopularity among female voters, with only five days to go.

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At a rally yesterday, Trump singled out Katy Tur for a special round of taunting, accusing her of refusing to report on the size of his crowds. “You’re not reporting it, Katy,” Trump ranted. “But there’s something happening.” One reporter noted Tur then got heckled by a Trump supporter, and a number of reporters subsequently spoke out in her defense. But Trump had also previously targeted Tur in a particularly repellent and creepy way, calling her “little Katy” and telling her to “be quiet.” You cannot disentangle this latest episode from Trump’s misogyny and bullying tendency to egg on his supporters against the media.

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But note Trump’s numbers among women in the new national polls:

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— The NYT/CBS poll finds Clinton leading among women by 50-36, and she has nearly tied Trump among white women, at 42-43.

— The Post/ABC poll finds Clinton leading among women by 52-41, and among college educated white women, she leads by a staggering 59-32. As ABC puts it, the resulting 22-point gender gap in the new poll is “nearly double the norm in elections since 1976.”

Most evidence suggests that Trump’s abysmal standing with college educated white women in particular is helping to drive a key dynamic in this race: the split along educational lines. As it is, Clinton is on track to win among college educated whites for the first time in over half a century, even as Trump is running up huge margins with non-college whites. In addition, as James Hohmann explains, college educated white women in particular are a GOP-leaning constituency: Mitt Romney won them by six points in 2012. This means that Trump’s historically huge deficit among them — 27 points in today’s Post poll — has turned them into Clinton’s “firewall.”

Trump’s regular displays of misogyny and bullying — on that sex tape, Trump boasts of being able to have his way with women because he is a star; many women have now alleged unwanted advances; and he publicly belittled Alicia Machado over her weight — may be a cause of this. Our polling has shown that college educated white women see Trump as biased against their gender by an overwhelming 61-39.

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More broadly, as Ron Brownstein observed months ago, it will be hard for Trump to win unless he runs up a convincing margin among white women in general (which is clearly being hampered by his weakness among those white women who have graduated college). This is in part due to ongoing demographic shifts — and continuing GOP weakness among nonwhites — that are putting increasing pressure on GOP nominees to win overwhelmingly among white voters. If he doesn’t win solidly among white women, Trump may have to win by truly extraordinary margins among white men.

Trump of course could still pull that off. Or he could still somehow win in some other way. And if he does, we’ll all have to reckon with what it means that he was able to get elected president despite his long track record of sexism, chauvinism, and belittling of women. But if Trump loses, his bullying and misogyny may have played a big role in sealing his doom.

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* TRUMP SLIGHTLY UP IN NEW HAMPSHIRE, POLL SHOWS: A new WBUR poll finds Trump and Clinton at 40-39 among likely voters in New Hampshire. That’s a bit out of sync with the Huffpollster averages, which put Clinton up five in the state and have not shown Trump leading in a poll there since July.

However, since the last WBUR poll had Clinton up only three points just three weeks ago, today’s poll is consistent with an overall tightening in the race. Also, in a tightening race you’re going to get some polls that are good for Trump.

* CLINTON’S ‘FLOODGATES APPEAR TO BE HOLDING’: Sabato’s Crystal Ball assesses the electoral map and concludes that while the race has tightened, Clinton’s “floodgates appear to be holding,” and “her position as the clear frontrunner in the race endures.”

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The short version: Because Clinton’s leads in many battlegrounds are diminished but holding (and because Trump’s efforts to pick off a state like Wisconsin appear likely to fail) she still can win by holding Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Colorado, and adding at least one more, say New Hampshire or Nevada or North Carolina, all of which are also leaning her way.

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* SOME STATES SHIFT TRUMP’S WAY, BUT MAP FAVORS CLINTON: The Cook Political Report shifts some of its ratings: Arizona, Ohio, and Iowa are now more likely to go for Trump, and Michigan looks a bit less certain for Clinton. But overall, Cook concludes that “the math still continues favor Clinton.”

Cook puts Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Michigan (despite the slight tightening) all in the “Lean Democratic” column, while Virginia is “Likely Democratic.” That still gives Clinton a lot of paths.

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* EARLY VOTE TIGHTENS: The Associated Press reports that more than 31 million people have voted so far, and the big picture is that Dems are not doing as well as hoped for in North Carolina (though they still lead there) and Florida. But:

The tens of millions of early votes cast also point to strength from Democratic-leaning Latino voters, potentially giving Clinton a significant advantage in Nevada and Colorado. With more than half the votes already cast in those states, Democrats are matching if not exceeding their successful 2012 pace….analysts say they see signs that Republican early voters are those who previously voted on Election Day, while Democrats are drawing new voters.

Meanwhile, Dems are not getting the enthusiasm they need in parts of the Midwest and from African Americans, though there are some signs the latter is turning around. Overall, the AP gives Clinton the “apparent edge.”

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* CLINTON HAS MONEY TO SPEND IN SAFER STATES: There’s been lots of hand-wringing about Clinton’s late spending in Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico. But as the Post notes:

The new spending is fueled by Clinton’s large bank account. As of Oct. 19, she had more than $62 million on hand , compared with Trump’s $16 million. This week, the campaign said it raised a record $11.3 million in 48 hours online. Clinton’s online fundraising has reached its highest level since she became the Democratic nominee in July, officials said, giving them the resources to blanket the airwaves.

It would be malpractice not to do this.

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* IN RUST BELT, CLINTON FAVORED ON…TRADE??? A new Reuters poll finds:

Voters in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania — three competitive states in the Nov. 8 election that form the bulk of a region dubbed the Rust Belt for its swaths of shuttered factories — favor Trump’s Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, on the issue of trade, according to the polling, with some respondents citing how international trade can bring down prices.

This is likely not true among blue collar white Trump voters. But still, this suggests Trump’s empty bluster about getting tough on China and starting trade wars might not be enough to win, even in the Rust Belt.

* AND TRUMP KEEPS LYING ABOUT CRIME: Trump loves to say that the murder rate is higher than it has been in 45 years. Michelle Lee takes apart the claim in brutal detail, concluding:

Trump falsely says on a daily basis that “we have the highest murder rate in this country in 45 years.” In fact, it’s the opposite: Both the rate of homicides and violent crimes are back down to the levels they were 45 years ago, and are at about half the rates at their peak in the 1980s and early 1990s.