In 2016 John Ackerman and other climate experts predicted warmer waters and storm surge from climate change would lead to stronger storms, setting off negative consequences for Bay County and other low-lying areas. Those predictions arguably came true in the worst way with Hurricane Michael and other devastating hurricanes like Harvey and Irma, Ackerman and other experts say.

NORTHWEST FLORIDA — In 2016 John Ackerman and other climate experts predicted warmer waters and storm surge from climate change would lead to stronger storms, setting off negative consequences for Bay County and other low-lying areas.

Those predictions arguably came true in the worst way with Hurricane Michael and other devastating hurricanes like Harvey and Irma, Ackerman and other experts say.

“Without a doubt I think it is,” said Ackerman, who lives in West Bay and teaches environmental policy at Ashford University, said when asked if climate change was a factor in Hurricane Michael. “While the classic statement is you cannot place the blame of climate change on one singular event, you can do studies that indicate how much of a difference increases in temperature made on that particular event. It’s been done with Harvey and Irma. The data will come out to show, more than likely, that the increased water temperatures in the northeastern part of the Gulf (of Mexico) had a huge effect on the intensification of the storm, the speed of the storm.”

Water temperatures in the far northern Gulf of Mexico were several degrees Fahrenheit higher than normal around the time Hurricane Michael hit, according to news reports.

The science of it

Climate change causes water temperatures to increase, which in turn gives storms more energy, according to scientists. Warmer water plays a role in creating stronger storms by creating more fuel for what essentially is a giant heat engine, said Weather Channel meteorologist Carl Parker. Warming oceans are due to man-made global warming, which is caused by the release of C02 and fossil fuels, according to scientific research.

While some scientists are hesitant to say climate change directly cause individual hurricanes, others such as Michael Mann, a professor and director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University, agree with Ackerman that climate change played a role in Hurricane Michael.

“I don’t think it’s purely a coincidence that Michael was the strongest U.S. landfalling hurricane on record so late in the year,” Mann wrote in an email. “The maximum potential intensity of a hurricane is a function of sea surface temperature. As the oceans warm, larger parts of the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic remain warmer later into the year. This is of course part of a larger trend toward more intense hurricanes, which is linked to human-caused climate change.”

Hurricane Michael is notable in several ways, according to various news reports: one of the strongest storms to hit the continental U.S. and the most powerful to affect the Florida Panhandle. Survivors have compared the aftermath to a bomb going off instead of the usual storm damage.

Benjamin Strauss, CEO and chief scientist for Climate Central, a news and science organization that studies climate change and its impact on the public, said climate science leads experts to expect more category 3, 4 and 5 storms.

“Michael is entirely consistent with that,” Strauss said.

However, only having satellite observations that go back to the 1960s makes linking the intensities of individual storms to climate change a challenge, Parker said.

“We can’t say unequivocally that there haven’t been tropical cyclones as strong as the ones we’re seeing today,” he said.

While much of climate research looks at storm surge and shore erosion, stronger storms also can mean more powerful winds — a feature responsible for much of the building damage throughout Bay County during Hurricane Michael.

“Another recent study showed that for every so many degrees of increase in air temperature, you have so many miles-per-hour increase in wind speed,” Ackerman said.

There is a “roughly” 7 percent increase in maximum wind speeds for each degree Celsius of warming, and “the oceans have now warmed roughly 1 (Celsius),” Mann said.

Storm surge was still a feature of Hurricane Michael, particularly in Mexico Beach.

“In this particular case, where it hit in Mexico Beach was a not high above sea level area — very low-lying area — so the storm surge was particularly bad,” Ackerman said. “Mexico Beach doesn’t have (a) barrier island in front of it, so it just pushed straight into Mexico Beach.”

The same year Hurricane Michael hit, the Panama City area also saw a record year of rainfall — about 81 inches, the most the National Weather Service has measured in the area since it began measurements in 2010. That record doesn’t include rain from the hurricane. Ackerman also believes climate change played a factor in the heavy rain in 2018.

“The national climate assessment is specific for us because it shows what’s going to happen in the Southeast — wetter and warmer,” Ackerman said. “When you warm the air, it holds more moisture. More moisture means more rain.”

Possible solutions

Michael likely isn’t an anomaly and the bad news is people can expect more powerful storms.

People need to start preparing for more hurricanes and effects and taking whatever steps they can to mitigate the effects of climate change, including getting away from the coast, experts said.

“We need to spend more money on preparing for the storm because it’s much more expensive to repair than it is to prepare,” Ackerman said. “For example, reduce the construction along the barrier islands. Let the barrier islands be what they are — a barrier to storm surge.”

Ackerman also suggested pushing U.S. 98 back to “give the storm surge room.”

Humanity needs to transition toward renewable energy and away from fossil fuels as quickly as possible, Mann said.

“There are things people can do in their everyday lives to minimize their energy use and to reduce their carbon footprint. In many cases, doing these things saves us money and makes us healthier, i.e., they are ‘no regrets’ actions that we can take,” Mann said. “But in order to achieve the massive reduction in carbon emission necessary to avoid catastrophic warming of the planet, we need government policies that incentivize renewables and put a price on the burning of carbon. And we must elect politicians who will support those policies.”

Looking to the past isn’t an option since the future won’t be like that, Strauss said.

“We have to expect the unexpected,” Strauss said. “We’re already in the problem and getting worse storms.”