TransLink is in serious trouble.

Our public transit authority is losing $75 million every month. Ridership is down 83 per cent . Revenue from parking fees and gas taxes has taken a hit. Bus fares have been waived since the decision to only allow rear-door boardings.

These revenue streams typically make up more than half of TransLink's operating budget; now they're barely a trickle.

As a result, TransLink is making huge cuts to service. SkyTrain frequency was reduced 15-40 per cent last week. Similar reductions are planned for the West Coast Express and SeaBus. Eighteen bus routes were suspended and another 47 will follow by mid-May .

Usually a bustling transit hub, Waterfront Station in downtown Vancouver is eerily empty midday while commuters stay home, or choose to drive, due to COVID-19 concerns. (Uytae Lee)

Of course, most industries are taking a huge hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Airlines are hurting badly. Theatres, venues and stadiums have closed indefinitely.

However, there are few alternatives that could replace the speed of flying or the thrill of a live event; people will take flights and go to shows again. These industries, like many others, will recover.

Transit is a different story. As we flatten the curve and heal from COVID-19, many people will have a very viable alternative to taking transit: driving.

How pandemics affected transit in China

In 2003, amid growing fears around the unfolding SARS epidemic, commuters in China purchased cars (and bicycles) in record numbers , with car sales rising 75 per cent in 2003 compared to 2002, according to consultancy firm Bain & Company.

A report by Kotak Mahindra Bank attributed this purchasing spree to "fear of being infected with SARS while using public transport" — a sentiment echoed in reports by the New York Times and Reuters — in addition to a "sharp cut in prices" caused by foreign automakers increasing competition in the local market.

During this time, transit use plummeted and struggled to recover, even as SARS cases dropped to zero. (In Beijing today, the public bus system still has fewer riders than before the SARS epidemic, according to a paper by a faculty member and students at Tsinghua University's Institute of Transportation — though this can be partly explained by growing car use and huge subway expansions .)

Car manufacturers in China have reported a boom in sales as restrictions in the country begin to relax after the novel coronavirus shut down commerce and commuters. (Utyae Lee)

Now this story appears to be repeating itself. As cities in China recover from COVID-19, traffic congestion on highways has actually rebounded to levels higher than the previous year and car manufacturers in Wuhan have reported a "boom" in sales, according to Bloomberg .

That rebound may have come at the cost of transit ridership. Before the pandemic, 40 per cent of residents took public transit in Beijing, according to the U.S.-based Institute for Transportation & Development Policy. Today, as the city recovers, the share of transit users has dropped to just 24 per cent.

A lone skateboarder tries a few tricks in a deserted Vancouver SkyTrain station. (Uytae Lee)

What to expect in North America

A similar story is likely to unfold in North America, but with much harsher consequences. Even before the pandemic, public transit systems were facing challenges: Transit ridership has steadily declined in the U.S. since 2014 , with Bloomberg reporting a slight increase between 2018 and 2019, led by improvements in New York and Washington, D.C.

For struggling transit systems, the pandemic will be more than a major setback, it could be a death sentence.

In Metro Vancouver, we are lucky enough to have a robust transit system that has grown its ridership year after year . However, we're far from immune to a pandemic-driven transit crisis.

Much of our ridership has been earned through decades of public investment that gradually shifted our population out of cars. In 1991, just nine per cent of people in Metro Vancouver took transit, while 83 per cent drove. In the last census, before the COVID-19 crisis, 20 per cent of people took transit while 65 per cent drove.

That is a huge accomplishment. We've convinced many people who could very well afford to drive to take transit.

Only nine per cent of people in Metro Vancouver took transit in 1991 while 83 per cent drove. After decades of public investment, 20 per cent of people in the region were transit users, before the pandemic hit. (Uytae Lee/Andy Yan)

However, the pandemic threatens to reverse decades of progress. Those who can afford to may completely abandon transit and drive for the foreseeable future. Those who can't — typically low-income earners, the elderly, youth and racialized communities — will face a skeleton of a transit system, ultimately widening societal inequities.

TransLink's crisis will reverberate long after the pandemic. It will need to convince the public that transit is safe to use. But more than that, it will need sustained government support for a very long time.

To hear Uytae Lee share his point of view on CBC's The Early Edition, tap the audio link below:

Columnist Uytae Lee speaks with Stephen Quinn about the future of transit during and after the pandemic. 7:21

Uytae Lee is a columnist for CBC's The Early Edition and producer for About Here, a YouTube channel focused on urban planning issues in Vancouver.

Petros Kusmu is a Vancouver-based management consultant focused on public sector transformations and an occasional panelist for CBC News and The National.

Both Lee and Kusmu are World Economic Forum Global Shapers.