NEW YORK — In November 2013, Jeb Bush took to the rostrum at New York’s Marriott Marquis for the annual meeting of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, alongside such industry stars as Goldman Sachs’ Lloyd Blankfein and Blackrock’s Larry Fink. Bush’s remarks, and his chatting afterwards, left many attendees convinced he was preparing to run for president. Word of Bush’s interest ricocheted around the political world.

But Bush, a private citizen for eight years since leaving the Florida governor’s mansion, had no real infrastructure to handle such an endeavor. And as the third member of a storied political family to seek the presidency, just five years after his brother left office with near record-low approval ratings, he had no clear message or answer to the inevitable questions about why he was the right man for 2016. “He just got way out there beyond his capacity to manage and he consciously decided to take his profile down while thinking through how to make a run,” one friend said.


So while even close Bush watchers began to doubt whether he was really serious about running, he and a close-knit group of advisers were following a careful plan aimed at maximizing his chances of winning the nomination, if and when he gave the thumbs-up.

Their strategy was to publicly downplay his interest in the race and avoid media attention, while quietly laying the groundwork for a launch that would catch much of Washington — and many of his potential rivals — flat-footed. While the much of the political world focused on Chris Christie, Rand Paul and even Bush’s fellow Floridian Marco Rubio, Bush was quietly collecting political chits, developing a cohesive platform, and preparing for a fundraising blitz intended to grab the front-runner’s chair, scare potential competitors like Mitt Romney and Christie, and put Bush on such a firm financial footing that he could devote more time to retail politics when it really counted.

Bush’s first step, after that November date at the Marriott Marquis, was to hire full-time help. Within a month, he had dipped into his personal fortune to hire four staffers: longtime adviser and former chief of staff Sally Bradshaw, former spokeswoman Kristy Campbell, longtime aide Brandi Brown and political aide Josh Venable. Bush’s political consultant, Mike Murphy, joined in conference calls from his California home.

Bradshaw describes the following year as a “process” in which staffers carefully set up the building blocks for a massive campaign, while the would-be candidate engaged in his own soul-searching under the radar screen. Even unscripted moments like his mother’s declaration in January 2014 that she hoped he wouldn’t run helped serve his purposes — allowing the family to acknowledge the audacity of a third Bush presidency while masking Bush’s preparations.

“We just do what people who work for Jeb Bush always do, which is build the plan, execute the plan and don’t talk about it,” Bradshaw said.

In keeping with that line, Bradshaw didn’t provide the specifics of the “plan,” although she indicated it was more a series of dos and don’ts for 2014.

Do: Travel, fund-raise for other candidates, quietly vet Bush’s business dealings and other potential points of attack, and entertain calls from supporters to run.

Don’t: Establish a political committee, travel to first-in-the-nation Iowa or explicitly start lining up donors or more staffers until year’s end.

“Donors called me all the time. I didn’t go to donors and solicit their support,” Bradshaw said. “If a donor called and said ‘Is Jeb Bush running?’ I would say ‘I don’t know. He’s going through a process of thinking very seriously about this. What do you think he should do?’”

If the donor responded, “Well, I think he should run,” Bradshaw said she’d reply: “Let’s get all of your contact information.”

Bradshaw added that she had no idea what Bush’s ultimate decision would be, but she collected donor information as a safeguard in case Bush took the next step.

Bush’s announcement that he was seriously considering a run was, as it turned out, exquisitely timed — just after Thanksgiving of last year.

“Jeb’s pace surprised a lot of us,” said Scott Reed, the former campaign manager for Bob Dole’s 1996 presidential campaign and a longtime GOP operative who is neutral in this race. “He dominated the holiday season’s headlines while everybody else was wrapping presents.”

At that moment, Bush’s team hit the phones and emails with what some have called a “shock and awe” campaign that could raise between $50 million and $100 million by the end of the first quarter of the year.

“All that matters in this first quarter is fundraising,” said Reed. “Nobody else has done what he has done.”

Indeed, by the end of the quarter, Bush’s team believes, many would-be competitors will have joined Romney on the sidelines, unwilling or unable to compete with the Bush juggernaut, while the candidate can be freed up to address the many serious questions about why another Bush is the best solution to the nation’s problems.

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The confidence with which Bush is pursuing his strategy was evident last Wednesday in the Picasso-adorned Park Avenue home of private-equity titan Henry Kravis. It was Bush’s 62nd birthday, and he celebrated in Kravis’ 26-room penthouse with more than 40 of the richest people in New York. Among them were Bush’s cousin, George Walker IV, the chief executive of the investment management firm of Neuberger Berman, and real estate mogul Jerry Speyer, along with Ken Mehlman and Alex Navab of Kravis’ firm, KKR. The admission price: a minimum of $100,000, also the going rate for other Bush fundraisers.

Guests took an elevator straight to the foyer and noshed on salmon and other hors d’oeuvres while listening to Bush talk about strategy for the upcoming campaign.

“You don’t get the big job by tearing other people down and you don’t get it by trying to appeal to everyone,” a donor recalled Bush saying. “I’m going to play this thing my way and let the chips fall where they may.”

The donors understood, as Bush does, that he needs their sizable help to offset his shaky support from some of the party’s conservative activist base, miffed over his positions on immigration and the Common Core educational standards. The money he collected would pay for time later in the campaign that he could devote to grassroots campaigning.

As it turns out, Kravis’ $4 million haul has led to a donor arms race with Coral Gables billionaire Miguel “Mike” Fernandez, who wrote in an email obtained by POLITICO that he intends to raise $5 million at a fundraiser next week at his waterfront mansion. About $1 million of that haul would come from Fernandez himself.

All this money flows to Bush’s Right to Rise PAC and a separate super PAC that can take money in unlimited sums. The way that Bush set up the two committees — at the same time and with the same attorney, former Romney super PAC lawyer Charlie Spies — is “unique,” said elections law lawyer Kenneth Gross, a former attorney for the Federal Election Commission. Because Bush is not an announced candidate or a federal office holder, he is far freer than others to work with the super PAC to collect unlimited contributions. Once Bush announces his candidacy, he will be restricted from working directly with the super PAC. But, by then, the committee will have been thoroughly infused with Bush’s campaign DNA and operate almost automatically in accordance with his campaign vision.

In less than a month, Bush has attended and spoken at a dozen super PAC fundraisers — about as many as Romney did in the entire 2011-12 election cycle.

“What Bush has done will usher in two things with other candidates in the future: 1) the way to get big donors up front with a greater measure of coordination and 2) a way to delay your official candidacy,” Gross said.

So far, his fundraising efforts may have pushed one potential rival out of the race: Romney. Once the 2012 nominee realized the seriousness of Bush’s intentions, he began dialing donors. Many had already committed to Bush.

Bush also outmaneuvered Romney by getting to the 2012 nominee’s top Iowa consultant, David Kochel. Murphy made first contact in early fall just to feel Kochel out. Bradshaw followed up months later by phone.

As Right to Rise was being formed, the conversations turned more serious. Kochel met Bush on Jan. 21 in Washington. Nine days later, Bush offered him a top role in Right to Rise, with the implicit understanding he would be a leading player — not just an Iowa guy — if Bush ran for president.

“I felt like it was an important thing to do for my career and for where I thought I could be most helpful and useful in preparation for what could be a campaign in 2016,” Kochel said. He said he made the “difficult call” to a “gracious and generous” Romney.

The next week, Romney told supporters he would likely forgo a third run for the presidency. Bush then embarked on an effort to lock down the former governor’s New York-area supporters and keep them away from Christie and any other would-be 2016 contenders.

“Jeb was on the phone with me right away and he was very persuasive,” said one Wall Streeter who raised millions for Romney’s campaigns. “Jeb has done a very good job, and he’s a natural place where people will go who are Mitt supporters. And there has been a significant amount of outreach to all of Romney’s folks.”

This donor, who plans to hold a mega-fundraiser for Bush that he says will outstrip the Kravis affair, described his conversations with the former Florida governor as direct and convincing. “Nothing about him is overly flashy. But his plan is well thought-out. He’s just doing his thing and is not that into paying attention to what anyone else is doing.”

Another major bundler for Republicans, who backs a rival candidate, marveled at the aggressive nature of the Bush fundraising operation.

“Jeb has quickly come to dominate the New York-area money the way he dominates Florida money,” this person said. “The only place he doesn’t dominate yet is in California. But they could easily raise the $100 million they claim if not much more.”

Bush’s team is well aware that the huge dollar fundraisers, especially on Wall Street, open Bush up to attacks from both the left and the right that he is creature of the wealthy. And the frenzied vacuuming of cash plays directly into one Democratic line of attack, should Bush win the GOP nomination: portray him as another out-of-touch rich guy, as they successfully did with Romney.

But they say few voters are paying close attention now. And once they are, these people say, Bush will be fully funded and able to spend all of his time selling his message of economic growth coupled with immigration and education reform.

One sign of Bush’s preparations for hitting the campaign trail was visible at the Kravis affair. To celebrate Bush’s birthday, the hosts brought him a slice of chocolate cake. But Bush didn’t indulge. Since late last year, the somewhat portly former governor has gone on the “paleo” diet to slim down.

Handed a piece of birthday cake, he plucked only the blueberry off the top and ate it.

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Bush’s planning for a presidential race is about more than filling the coffers of his super PAC and getting in fighting shape. One other aspect is nailing down the support of the party establishment that always backed his father and brother.

Since last March, Bush has headlined more than 50 events around the country and helped raise an estimated $10 million for other Republicans and conservative causes. Whenever commentators suggested he was collecting chits for a possible presidential run, Bush’s friends would point out that he always travels and raises money for Republicans in election years.

Of course, to become president, Bush will eventually have to expand his support beyond the Republican donor base, and even its mainstream. He’s already prepared for that by staking out positions on education reform and immigration that are at odds with some conservatives but very popular with independent voters.

Insiders familiar with Bush’s thinking believe that the potential candidate has thought about everything: his qualifications, the changes in the Republican electorate and how to handle the legacy of his brother, who left office with terrible poll numbers.

“Did you ever know Jeb to do something halfway?” one “Jeb World alum” asked rhetorically. “He approached this the way he approaches a game of golf or the A-Plus [education] plan: methodically and seriously. … When it comes to his brother, there could be a ‘Sistah Souljah’ moment. He’s not his brother and, when that subject comes up, he’ll respectfully say where they differ.”

But Bradshaw, Bush’s closest confidante, rejects the idea that Bush is following a tight script.

“It’s hard for people inside the process-bubble in D.C. to understand this: There’s not a grand master plan,” Bradshaw said. “This is how we do it in Jeb World.”