by Vincent Verhei

And now, some facts about one Blake Bortles:

He was drafted third overall in 2014.

He has finished in the top 10 in interceptions each of his four NFL seasons.

He has twice led the league in number of times sacked.

He has never finished higher than 15th in DVOA or DYAR.

His biggest weakness (probably -- he has a lot of weaknesses) is his accuracy, or lack thereof. He has never finished higher than 24th in completion percentage, and his career completion rate is below 60 percent.

He is going to play in the AFC Championship Game anyway.

That last fact says a lot more about Jacksonville's rushing attack and especially the Jaguars defense than it does about improved play on the part of Bortles. The Central Florida product was next-to-last in last week's Quick Reads, and he is just fifth this week. Now, if we're being honest, Bortles has done a lot well this postseason. He hasn't thrown an interception yet, he has only been sacked twice, and he has run for 123 yards in two playoff games. But for all of that, he has still struggled to do a quarterback's most basic job: complete passes. He went 12-of-23 (52.2 percent) against Buffalo in the wild-card game, then 14-of-26 (53.8 percent) in the divisional round against Pittsburgh.

How unusual is that? The NFL expanded to a wild-card round in the playoffs in 1978, then added a second wild-card game per conference in 1990. In all those games, this is just the fifth time a quarterback has thrown at least 20 passes and failed to complete more than 55 percent of them in both the wild-card and divisional rounds, yet still advanced to the conference championship game:

In the 1980 season, Jim Plunkett of the Oakland Raiders went 8-of-23 (34.7 percent) in a 27-7 win over Houston in the wild-card round, then 14-of-30 (46.7 percent) in a 14-12 divisional win over the Browns.

In 2008, Joe Flacco of the Baltimore Ravens went 9-of-23 (39.1 percent in his first playoff game, a 27-9 beatdown of Miami. The next week, he went 11-of-22 (50.0 percent) in a 13-10 win in Tennessee.

Hey, it's Joe Flacco again. In 2012, he went 12-of-23 (52.2 percent) in a 24-9 win over the Colts, and 18-of-34 (52.9 percent) in a 38-35 upset in Denver.

One year later, San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick went 16-of-30 (53.3 percent) in a 23-20 win over Green Bay, then 15-of-28 (53.6 percent) in the divisional round against Carolina.

The good news for Bortles is that despite their struggles, these quarterbacks and their teams generally continued to win. Plunkett and Flacco (2012 version) both went on to win the conference championship and then the Super Bowl. In 2008, Flacco and the Ravens were down one score in the fourth quarter until a Troy Polamalu pick-six gave the Steelers a 23-14 win. In 2013, Kaepernick came within one tipped pass in the end zone of winning in Seattle.

All of this brings us to another Bortles fact: due in part to his struggles with accuracy, he has been the most inconsistent quarterback in the league this season. He had 15 games in the regular season this year with at least 20 pass plays, including sacks, DPIs, and intentional groundings, but not spikes. (The exception was the Week 5 win over Pittsburgh, where he only had 16 pass plays in a 30-9 blowout win.) The variance of his DVOA in those 15 games was 25.7 percent, the highest such number in the league. The league's most consistent quarterback? Coincidentally, it was Bortles' opponent this week: Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Most Inconsistent Quarterbacks, 2017 Player Games* DVOA Variance* Rank



Player Games* DVOA Variance* Rank

5-B.Bortles 15 25.7% 1

7-C.Keenum 15 11.2% 16

8-K.Cousins 16 24.2% 2

11-C.Wentz 13 10.5% 17

14-A.Dalton 16 22.8% 3

8-M.Mariota 14 10.5% 18

1-C.Newton 16 22.5% 4

7-D.Kizer 14 10.4% 19

7-B.Hundley 10 19.0% 5

3-R.Wilson 16 9.8% 20

4-D.Carr 14 18.7% 6

11-A.Smith 15 9.8% 21

16-J.Goff 15 18.0% 7

10-M.Trubisky 10 9.4% 22

4-D.Prescott 15 18.0% 8

12-T.Brady 16 8.9% 23

5-T.Taylor 15 17.7% 9

3-J.Winston 11 8.5% 24

17-P.Rivers 16 17.7% 10

10-E.Manning 15 8.4% 25

5-J.Flacco 14 16.1% 11

2-M.Ryan 16 6.1% 26

6-J.Cutler 11 14.9% 12

7-J.Brissett 15 6.0% 27

13-T.Siemian 10 13.8% 13

9-D.Brees 16 5.9% 28

15-J.McCown 12 12.7% 14

7-B.Roethlisberger 15 5.3% 29

9-M.Stafford 16 11.3% 15









* Minimum 20 pass plays in each game. Minimum 10 games with at least 20 pass plays.

Comparing the best and worst games of Bortles and Roethlisberger makes it very clear what's going on here. Roethlisberger's best single-game DVOA came in Week 2 against Minnesota, when he went 23-of-35 for 243 yards with two touchdowns, no interceptions, and two sacks. That was good for a DVOA of 60.3%. But Bortles had three games better than that: Week 3 against Baltimore (92.4%), Week 14 against Seattle (67.4%), and Week 15 against Houston (73.3%). His combined numbers in those three games: 67.8 percent completion rate, 9.6 yards per pass, nine touchdowns, no interceptions, one sack.

While Bortles at his best was better than Roethlisberger at his best, Bortles at his worst was also much worse than Roethlisberger at his worst. Roethlisberger's worst game (naturally) was his five-interception outing against Jacksonville in Week 5, when his DVOA was -20.5% (keeping in mind that number is highly boosted because Roethlisberger was playing the league's best defense). Bortles had six games worse than that: Week 2 against Tennessee (-39.2%); Week 4 against the Jets (-56.9%); Week 6 against the Rams (-22.1%); Week 11 against Cleveland (-51.8%); Week 12 against Arizona (-42.6%); and Week 17 against Tennessee again (-60.8%). Bortles combined statline in those games: 54.2 percent completion rate, 5.4 yards per pass, four touchdowns, seven interceptions, 15 sacks. (This would look even worse for Bortles if we included that Week 5 Pittsburgh game, when his DVOA was -49.9%.)

And that's just the regular season. Already in the playoffs, we have seen Bortles put up a -42.1% DVOA in the wild-card round against Buffalo, then a 46.4% DVOA in the divisional win against the Steelers. One might look at that and say he's due for a bad game, but there really has been little rhyme or reason for when he has played well and when he has struggled. All we know is that Bortles at his worst could lose in New England by 20 points or more, but Bortles at his best (along with a strong rushing attack and the best defense in the league) would easily be capable of defeating the Patriots and moving on to the Super Bowl.

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 1. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 38/58 469 5 1 2 273 267 7 JAC Roethlisberger gets a boost of 122 DYAR for playing the best defense in the league. Before Sunday, the Jaguars had not allowed more than 271 passing yards or three touchdowns (both by Russell Wilson). Roethlisberger's fourth-down numbers were ridiculous: 4-of-5 for 95 yards and four conversions, including three touchdowns. That's more fourth-down yards and touchdowns in one game than any other player had in 16 games in the regular season. (Kirk Cousins had 94 yards, but no touchdowns; Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz each had a pair of fourth-down touchdowns.) 2. Case Keenum MIN 25/40 318 1 1 2 143 141 2 NO THAT PLAY was worth 46 passing DYAR. It was just one of many good plays Keenum had on deep throws that traveled more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage. He threw 12 such passes. One was intercepted, but five were completed for 153 yards, and two others resulted in DPIs for 54 more yards. 3. Tom Brady NE 35/53 337 3 0 0 140 135 5 TEN Red zone passing: 9-of-11 for 54 yards and three touchdowns. Third-down passing: 9-of-14 for 96 yards, with every completion picking up a first down. 4. Nick Foles PHI 23/30 246 0 0 1 121 137 -17 ATL Foles had a very streaky game -- 60.6 percent of his plays were either back-to-back successes or back-to-back failures. That was especially true in the second half, when he completed each of his first six passes for 78 total yards, and each of his last five passes for 64 total yards -- but in between he went 1-of-4 for 3 yards. 5. Blake Bortles JAC 14/26 214 1 0 0 120 106 14 PIT Bortles' streak factor was even higher than Foles, at 69.2 percent. He completed each of his first three passes for 53 total yards, and each of his last five passes for 118 yards, but in between he went 6-of-18 for 43 yards, plus an aborted snap. On third downs, he went 6-of-11 for 88 yards, with every completion going for a first down. 6. Drew Brees NO 25/40 294 3 2 2 78 76 3 MIN In the red zone, Brees went 5-of-7 for 42 yards and three touchdowns, but also one critical interception. On third and fourth downs, he went just 2-of-5 for 18 yards and two conversions, plus one sack. He did not convert a third down until the Saints were down 17-0 in the third quarter. Up the middle, he went 7-of-10 for 90 yards with one touchdown and one interception. 7. Matt Ryan ATL 22/36 210 1 0 3 53 53 0 PHI Ryan spent a good portion of his day in Philadelphia territory, but didn't have much success with that field position. On the Eagles' side of the 50, he went 7-of-16 for 41 yards with one touchdown, one other first down, and two sacks. 8. Marcus Mariota TEN 22/37 254 2 0 8 -17 -26 9 NE From the closing moments of the first half to the later portions of the second, Mariota went 19 straight dropbacks without picking up a first down. In that stretch, he went 8-of-14 for 59 yards with five sacks. At one point he was sacked on three consecutive dropbacks.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Tevin Coleman ATL 10 79 0 1/1 14 0 56 48 9 PHI Six first downs on the ground, including gains of 10, 12, 18, and 23, while losing yards just twice. 2. Alvin Kamara NO 11 43 0 4/7 62 1 54 14 41 MIN Two first downs rushing, a long gain of ten, and two runs that failed to gain yardage. His biggest catch was a go-ahead fourth-quarter touchdown, but he also had a 19-yard gain on second-and-14 and a 23-yard gain on second-and-16. 3. Dion Lewis NE 15 62 0 9/10 79 0 36 24 12 TEN Slow and steady. Lewis only had three first downs on the ground and a long gain of only 10, but only one of his runs failed to gain yardage, and 12 gained 3 yards or more. Only two of Lewis' receptions went for first downs, but seven were successful plays. 4. T.J. Yeldon JAC 5 20 1 3/3 57 0 33 8 25 PIT Four of Yeldon's runs gained 4, 5, or 6 yards. His biggest catches were a pair of third-down conversions: a 13-yard gain on third-and-10 and a 40-yard gain on third-and-5. 5. Leonard Fournette JAC 25 109 3 2/4 10 0 15 22 -7 PIT Six total first downs on the ground, including three runs of 10 yards or more, while being hit for no gain just twice.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Tevin Coleman ATL 10 79 0 1/1 14 0 56 48 9 PHI 2. Dion Lewis NE 15 62 0 9/10 79 0 36 24 12 TEN 3. Leonard Fournette JAC 25 109 3 2/4 10 0 15 22 -7 PIT 4. Alvin Kamara NO 11 43 0 4/7 62 1 54 14 41 MIN 5. Jerick McKinnon MIN 8 34 1 3/4 6 0 -5 12 -18 NO Take away his 14-yard touchdown and McKinnon had negative rushing DYAR, so yeah, it was pretty much just that one play.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Derrick Henry TEN 12 28 0 3/4 21 0 -35 -26 -9 NE Henry's only successful run was a 4-yard gain on third-and-1 that came with Tennessee down by 28 points in the fourth quarter. He had no runs of even 5 yards, and was hit in the backfield twice. His three catches: a 14-yard gain on third-and-31, a 6-yard gain on third-and-22, and a 1-yard gain on third-and-10. Yardage doesn't get much more meaningless than that.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Derrick Henry TEN 12 28 0 3/4 21 0 -35 -26 -9 NE

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR Opp 1. Stefon Diggs MIN 6 10 137 22.8 1 74 NO THAT PLAY was worth 34 DYAR receiving. It was one of seven first downs Diggs had on the day, including DPIs for 34 and 3 yards. 2. Antonio Brown PIT 7 11 132 18.9 2 59 JAC Brown's touchdowns went for 43 and 23 yards, and he also had a 27-yard gain. 3. Danny Amendola NE 11 13 112 10.2 0 45 TEN Only one of Amendola's catches gained more than 15 yards, but seven picked up first downs, five were third-down conversions, and all were successful plays. 4. Martavis Bryant PIT 2 4 78 39.0 1 40 JAC A 36-yard touchdown on fourth-and-11 and a 42-yard gain on first-and-10, and here we are. 5. Corey Davis TEN 5 8 63 12.6 2 39 NE Davis had a pair of red zone scores and a pair of fourth-down conversions. All of his completions were successful plays.