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I recently finished watching every Dolphins’ snap from the 2012 year, and I have mixed feelings about their offense. At times they show flashes of brilliance, but those were almost always from a former Dolphin — Reggie Bush — who is now a Detroit Lion.

The rest of the offense focuses primarily on low-risk, low-reward plays of under fifteen yards. Over and over in 2012, Tannehill focused on Brian Hartline and never looked for anyone else. But to be fair, he didn’t have many other options last year.

The Dolphins recognized their offensive weakness and went out and signed Mike Wallace during the offseason. It seems clear that they hope to open up the field more than they did in 2012, but it remains to be seen whether Tannehill can lead a more aggressive style of offense.

Ryan Tannehill

Ryan Tannehill is heading into his second year as a professional quarterback, and his draft-day value for you will depend on how much improvement you expect to see in his sophomore season.

I watched every snap Tannehill took last year, and I have mixed emotions. Tannehill’s biggest strength is the bootleg; he excels at rolling out while keeping his eyes upfield to find a receiver. Inside the pocket, Tannehill is average and uninspiring. He too often takes sacks that could have been avoided, and he too rarely looks to second and third options in his progression.

Tannehill ended last season with more INTs than TDs, and many of his turnovers were due to the death-stare he puts on his intended receiver. Very, very rarely did Tannehill look off the safeties. While Tannehill would occasionally check down to a Running Back, he seemed incapable of moving through a progression and almost never looked to a second receiver when he saw his first option covered.

If Tannehill can learn to control his eyes, confuse the defensive backs, and look to second and third options, he could become a sneaky QB2 before the season is out. But if Tannehill continues to lock eyes with his intended target, I would not be surprised to see him throw more interceptions this year.

The Mike Wallace addition likely means the team will be throwing more deep balls, which could be a blessing or a curse, depending on how well Ryan Tannehill controls the safeties with his vision.

Running Backs

I want to like Daniel Thomas. I really do. Thomas is a guy I drafted as a sleeper last year. After drafting him, I proceeded to hype him up to the rest of the league. Thomas proceeded to disappoint, putting up pedestrian numbers, eluding no one, and repeatedly leaving the field with injuries. I was wrong.

Thomas finished last year without ever posting more than 69 rushing yards in a game. He averaged 3.6 yards per carry, and only got into the end zone three times. I still hold out a lingering hope that Thomas will gain the starting job — and full disclosure: I have him stashed on a couple league rosters — but I don’t expect it to happen.

Instead, Lamar Miller is the favorite to handle the bulk of the Dolphins’ running game. In contrast to Thomas’s 3.6 YPC, Miller put up a 4.9 average last year. To be fair, he only had 51 carries, about half of how many Thomas got, but Miller showed more potential.

Miller is fast, but he didn’t show much juking ability last year. He can run through a hole well, but he isn’t making many people missed and he didn’t run anyone over. (Thomas is 3 inches taller and weighs 20 pounds more.)

I don’t love the running game this year, no matter who starts. Reggie Bush made a bad offensive line look decent last year, but neither Miller nor Thomas has Bush’s speed or playmaking ability. Lamar Miller shows the most potential, but I wouldn’t take him as more than a low-end RB2 — and even that is risky.

Wide Receivers

I got very tired of watching Ryan Tannehill miss wide open receivers on their deep routes. Over and over again, my notes on the 2012 Dolphins’ game film note that he missed another deep throw. That inaccuracy on deep passes concerns me for Mike Wallace’s fantasy potential, because much of Wallace’s game is built on speeding past Cornerbacks.

Ryan Tannehill has the arm strength to hit Wallace deep, but the question is whether he can consistently hit him with accuracy. The Dolphins’ coaching staff has to hope so, because the Dolphins were in desperate need of explosive plays last year.

After watching every Dolphins game in 2012, I am convinced that Brian Hartline should not be going undrafted. Last year, Ryan Tannehill survived because of Hartline, who finished 32nd among WRs despite putting up single-digit fantasy points for the final eight weeks of the season.

Hartline was targeted twelve times in the end zone last year, but he finished with only one touchdown. If Tannehill makes progress this year, Hartline could see an improvement on that number.

In 2012, Ryan Tannehill made his living by throwing comeback routes to Hartline, who seemed to be open every time. Hartline showed a talent for gaining separation, and most of his receptions came with defenders at least a yard away. Hartline still has a role in this offense, and I think he’s worth stashing as a backup Wide Receiver. Hartline is a borderline WR3 in a PPR league, but he’s only worth a bench spot in non-PPR leagues.

Tight End

Gone is Anthony Fasano, Tannehill’s second favorite target last year. Fasano is now with the Chiefs, and he’ll be catching passes from Alex Smith.

The Dolphins picked up Dustin Keller, a former Jet. Keller only played in half of last year’s games, but in previous seasons he has shown real talent. Keller saw more than 100 targets in both 2010 and 2011, and in both years he caught 5 touchdowns.

Tannehill’s love for short comeback routes to Hartline and Fasano last year makes me think there is a significant role for Keller in the Dolphins’ offense, but it remains to be seen how the offense changes this year.

Overall, the Tight End position is a melting pot of nondescript mediocrity this year, once you get past Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski (if you believe he’ll come back strong after recovering from his injuries). Keller is in that large clump of Tight Ends who all seem similar, but he isn’t worth a draft pick in a ten-team league, as you shouldn’t be holding two Tight Ends unless your league has an extra-deep bench.

TL; DR

Ryan Tannehill — If you think he improves his game, particularly his ability to look at more than one target before throwing, he’s worth a gamble as a low-end QB2. If not, he’s only a backup, even in a 2QB league.

— If you think he improves his game, particularly his ability to look at more than one target before throwing, he’s worth a gamble as a low-end QB2. If not, he’s only a backup, even in a 2QB league. Lamar Miller — The front-runner to take the RB1 spot on the Dolphins. He runs well in a straight line, but in 2012 he lacks the power or the elusiveness to become an elite back. Draft as a low-end RB2, high-end RB3 prospect.

— The front-runner to take the RB1 spot on the Dolphins. He runs well in a straight line, but in 2012 he lacks the power or the elusiveness to become an elite back. Draft as a low-end RB2, high-end RB3 prospect. Daniel Thomas — Injuries and a low Yards Per Carry average last year have put Thomas in the backseat. Thomas is unlikely to see many carries unless Miller is injured. Thomas will likely be on your waiver wire after the draft. So far, there isn’t reason to draft him.

— Injuries and a low Yards Per Carry average last year have put Thomas in the backseat. Thomas is unlikely to see many carries unless Miller is injured. Thomas will likely be on your waiver wire after the draft. So far, there isn’t reason to draft him. Mike Wallace — Tannehill was notably innacurate on deep passes in 2012, so he’ll need to improve his touch if Wallace is to excel. Wallace has deep speed and a natural talent for the game, and he’s worth a WR2 draft pick.

— Tannehill was notably innacurate on deep passes in 2012, so he’ll need to improve his touch if Wallace is to excel. Wallace has deep speed and a natural talent for the game, and he’s worth a WR2 draft pick. Brian Hartline — Hartline is worth a late-round draft pick. Hartline is going undrafted in far too many leagues, particularly given that he finished 32nd among WRs last year. This is Tannehill’s safety blanket, and he’s a potential WR3 option in PPR leagues.

— Hartline is worth a late-round draft pick. Hartline is going undrafted in far too many leagues, particularly given that he finished 32nd among WRs last year. This is Tannehill’s safety blanket, and he’s a potential WR3 option in PPR leagues. Dustin Keller — Another TE in the large collection of mediocre options. He probably shouldn’t be drafted in the top-10 at his position, but he’s one of the two dozen options who has the potential to finish in the top-10 by season’s end.



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