To present yourself as a viable alternative, you need strong local leadership (which is absent in West Bengal) and a dedicated vote bank (which is missing). There are no short cuts in politics; it took decades of hard work for Mamata to finally dislodge the Left from power in 2011. Paradropping the national leadership won’t help much, just as it didn’t in Delhi and Bihar.



As soon as the BJP performed well in the state, it should have cultivated strong local leadership in the state to prepare the ground for the state polls. It had two years. The other option would have been to do something similar to its strategy in Assam – induct a strong leader like Sonowal into the cabinet, groom him and launch him well ahead of the polls. Even Suraykanth Mishra’s hardcore fans would agree that he lacks the charisma of Jyoti Basu or Buddhadeb. There is a leadership vacuum in the state which Mamata is taking advantage of. Babul Supriyo’s choice in the cabinet is thus questionable as he is a political novice.

The landscape of Bengal also provided an opportunity to the BJP to experiment and shed the inhibition that it is a party representing Hindus. After all, it had nothing to lose. The BJP is always criticized of issuing very few tickets to Muslim candidates. It was announced in December 2015 that the party would field Muslim candidates in areas where they are dominant, totaling some 44 seats. However, the list has Muslim candidates numbering in single digits. Frustrated, the state minority cell chief has left the party.

BJP strategists may have thought that Muslim votes will be split between TMC and Left Front, and in the midst of this, a Hindu candidate could win. But the whole episode has left a bad taste among liberal, educated Muslim voters. As many as 28 percent of the community’s voters as per our survey could switch to another party in these polls.

The BJP is struggling to shed its ‘bahari’ tag in Bengal. Firstly, it doesn’t have many tall Bengali-speaking leaders. In addition, many tickets have been distributed to film/art/sports personalities who lack political acumen and experience.

Situation Is Not All Bleak For The BJP

In addition to cultivating credible local leadership, there are a couple more areas where the BJP can concentrate to maximize its vote share. Leaving aside voters who hate the BJP both in the state and at the Centre (31 percent) and those who rate PM Modi high and rate the state BJP low (12 percent), 13 percent of the voters are available to the BJP for persuasion. These voters are extremely proud of the Central Government’s achievements under BJP rule, but perceive the state BJP as an average performer. If Amit Shah and PM Modi can break into this group, the BJP can raise its numbers.

