The issue is a serious one, but the idea that such assaults are becoming more common is misconceived

There's been a lot of coverage and discussion of alcohol and violence, with media coverage of “king hits”, and emergency services recommending the introduction of stricter hours for bars and clubs in Sydney.

There is no doubt this a serious issue. I myself am down several teeth after a random, unprovoked punch thrown at me when I was walking down the street in Newtown. One of my good friends was hospitalised following a brawl in Wyong. One punch in the face resulted in him being knocked unconscious and hitting his head on the kerb, fracturing his skull.

But reading the recent coverage, you would be forgiven for thinking that alcohol-related assaults are becoming more common.

Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research statistics show the rate of alcohol-related assaults in New South Wales has been declining since 2008 and is the lowest since 2002, with 184.8 assaults per 100,000 people per year. It is however, still higher than the lowest point in 2000 of 136.6 assaults per 100,000.

And for the local government area (LGA) of Sydney, where much of the attention has been focused, the pattern is similar (use the dropdown menu on the graph above to change LGAs).

Since not all assaults are reported to police (only about 57.4% are reported in NSW, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics), it's worth looking at another source.

NSW Health maintains a dataset that shows the rate of hospitalisation due to interpersonal violence. It doesn't show those where alcohol is a factor, but it shows the overall assault trend.

The most recent figures are an all-time low. The NSW Health data is segmented by gender and age, so we can check if there's a different trend for younger males.

Again, for males aged 15 to 44, the most recent figures show an all-time low.

When hospitalisations due to injury are ranked by number of incidents, interpersonal assault is eighth. Both falls and motor vehicle accidents result in more than twice the number of hospitalisations.

All this is not to say the measures being suggested, such as lock-outs from bars, wouldn't further reduce the number of alcohol-related assaults. There's at least one study showing the effectiveness of lock-outs in reducing assaults in Newcastle, for example, and other studies showing a link between the density of alcohol outlets and violence. Ensuring the rate of alcohol-related assaults continues to fall would obviously be a good thing.

It's also possible the severity of assaults is worsening, as Don Weatherburn, the director of the Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research points out in the Sydney Morning Herald. He writes that the only way to check this is to examine records of people admitted to emergency with assault-related injuries. Weatherburn says his department is looking to undertake research into this early this year.

It is however important to acknowledge that assaults have been decreasing since the high point of 2008, and this is due in part to the actions of the NSW government.

As a side note, when looking for factors other than alcohol related to assaults, I found this study showing a correlation between when the Geelong Cats win a game, and a higher rate of assaults.

Edit: The original post said the rate of alcohol-related assaults was the lowest since 2008 - this has been amended to "has been declining since 2008 and is the lowest since 2002".