Republicans appear to have survived a special election scare, but a tight race for a House seat they’ve held for 35 years is the latest warning of trouble ahead in the November midterms.

Ohio’s 12th Congressional District was drawn overwhelmingly in their favor. On Tuesday night, Troy Balderson barely overcame an aggressive challenge from Democrat Danny O’Connor to declare victory. (He's up by more than a thousand votes with 100% reporting; O'Connor has not yet conceded, however.)

Either way, if Republicans can no longer count on cakewalks in districts like this one, the party likely will have to play defense — and spend more money — in places they ordinarily wouldn’t to keep control of the House. And though Tuesday’s victory might bring momentary relief, it came at a cost: Outside groups spent millions of dollars to prop up Balderson, and President Donald Trump, who has fostered a treacherous political climate for his party, was called in to stage a rally intended to help pull the candidate across the finish line.

"While we won tonight, this remains a very tough political environment and moving forward, we cannot expect to win tough races when our candidate is being outraised," said Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund, an outside spending group closely that is aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan and invested heavily in Balderson. "Any Republican running for Congress getting vastly outraised by an opponent needs to start raising more money."



Democrats, meanwhile, walked away encouraged by their performance in a district that Trump carried by 11 points in 2016 and that Balderson’s predecessor, Pat Tiberi, won by 36. They head toward the fall midterms more optimistic about their chances in dozens of other Republican-held districts that are even more favorable to them than the Ohio 12th.

“The fact that national Republicans have had to pull out every stop in a district this gerrymandered says it all,” Ohio Democratic Party chair David Pepper told BuzzFeed News. “Our goal is of course to win. But a close race in this district is a big boost as we build towards November.”

Republican operatives in and outside Ohio spent the final days grumbling about Balderson and fearing a loss. One strategist who works on House campaigns and, like others, requested anonymity to candidly assess the party’s woes, countered that special elections “are not necessarily the best barometer of a national wave, but they’re definitely an important data point.”

“It’s hard to draw momentum from a loss.”

But other Republicans acknowledged that Democrats maintain an edge in momentum, making a race like the Ohio 12th a wakeup call nonetheless.

“It shouldn’t have required a whole lot of effort,” said one national Republican consultant, who added that the narrow win might be “the best scenario for Republicans” — as it doesn’t totally destroy their confidence, but also doesn’t “lull people into a false sense of security and complacency.”

Balderson, a state senator, emerged from a crowded primary with Republican establishment backing in a district where the Republican establishment still has clout: Tiberi, whose retirement from Congress this year put the Ohio 12th in play, anointed Balderson as his preferred successor. And Gov. John Kasich, who held the seat for 18 years, starred in a supportive TV ad.

Trump, given his enthusiastic endorsement and rally on the final weekend of the campaign, quickly took credit for a victory.