Good evening, and welcome to our daily roundup of the latest developments in the coronavirus pandemic in Australia. This is Ben Doherty bringing you the main stories on Tuesday 7 April.

Australia’s death toll reaches 48

Australia’s Covid-19 death toll has reached 48, following two deaths in Western Australia and one in Tasmania.

A woman in her 70s, who recently returned from overseas and was staying in a Perth hotel as a part of mandatory quarantine, died at the Royal Perth hospital. A man in his 70s, who was a passenger on the Artania cruise ship, died at Joondalup health campus.

In Tasmania, a man in his 80s, yet another passenger on the ill-fated Ruby Princess cruise ship, died. That ship is now the original source of more than 660 infections, and at least 13 deaths. A criminal investigation is under way by New South Wales police into how it was allowed to dock at Circular Quay and its passengers disembark when there were signs of Covid-19 onboard.

Also on Tuesday, the government released modelling on the potential curve of Australia’s Covid-19 spread.

The prime minister, Scott Morrison, stressed the modelling was theoretical and was not based on case data. It does not predict what will happen in Australia in terms of how many people will contract the virus or will die from the virus, or how long it will last in Australia.

The modelling, he said, drew on a broader international dataset, and bolstered​ the rationale behind ‘flattening the curve’: which is what Australia is seeing now as a result of its interventions (particularly border closures) with a steady reduction in the number of new infections each day.

The interventions were “controlling the spread, boosting the capacity of our health system, and buying time, giving us the opportunity for more choices”, Morrison said.

The chief medical officer, Brendan Murphy, reported there were 5,844 confirmed cases of Covid-19, fewer than 100 people in ICUs and fewer than 40 people on ventilators.

The major concern for state and federal health bodies was 500 community transmissions where authorities do not know the source of the infection.

“That is why we cannot relax what we have been doing,” Murphy said.

Crisis takes staggering toll on Australian business

The Covid-19 pandemic has forced a staggering 70% of businesses in the hospitality sector to reduce the hours of their staff and 43% to either sack workers or place them on unpaid leave, new data shows.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released new data showing the pandemic’s impact on business, based on a survey of 3,000 companies in the days after the government’s tough social distancing restrictions were announced on 29 March.

Two-thirds of businesses across all sectors reported taking a hit to revenue or cash flow due to Covid-19.

Roughly the same number reported they had suffered decreased demand.

Two in five businesses said they had changed how they delivered goods or services, one-third said they had renegotiated their leases, and one in four had deferred loan repayments.

About one in 10 said they had paused trading altogether. In 70% of cases, this was due to Covid-19.

PPE shortage for Aboriginal health workers

A number of Aboriginal health groups in Victoria have been forced to cease Covid-19 testing and consider shutting their doors due to a lack of personal protective equipment.

The Guardian revealed last week that Aboriginal medical services in NSW, particularly in regional areas, were struggling to access the PPE needed to safely treat and test for the virus.

Some clinics had just two weeks of PPE left with no immediate prospect of resupply, creating a situation they described as “catastrophic”.

Delay in sourcing a ‘failure of government’

Australia’s federal government has launched a new attempt to find more domestic manufacturers to supply it with the materials needed for Covid-19 testing, a move the crossbench senator Rex Patrick says has started too late.

On Friday, the government issued a callout seeking Australian companies that may be able to manufacture various components used in Covid-19 testing, including the sterile tubes used to store and transport swabs, nucleic acid extraction kits, and essential chemicals.

The process is designed to better gauge Australia’s capability to manufacture such material locally, in the face of extraordinary global demand and pressure on existing supply chains.

New Zealand minister demoted over lockdown breach

“I’ve been an idiot, and I understand why people will be angry with me,” Dr David Clark said in a statement.

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