‘Fast track’ Dems mostly undecided on TPP Presented by Semiconductor Industry Association

With help from Matthew Korade and Megan Cassella

DEMS WHO BACKED ‘FAST TRACK’ MOSTLY UNDECIDED ON TPP: More than 10 months after the conclusion of talks on the TPP, most of the 28 Democrats in House and the 13 in the Senate who voted in favor of trade promotion authority still have not taken a public position on the landmark 12-nation agreement — but they say they’re working on it.


The good news for the administration is that only one of those 41 lawmakers is publicly opposed to the agreement. That’s Sen. Tim Kaine, who announced his opposition upon being selected by Hillary Clinton to be her running mate. The vast majority of the rest are undecided, and even some of those inclined to say “yes” to the deal say they need to see implementing legislation before taking a final position.

"Congressman [Ron] Kind supports the Trans-Pacific Partnership,” a spokeswoman for the leader of the New Democrat Coalition told Morning Trade. “He believes that for our workers, businesses, and farmers the United States must be at the table writing the rules of trade. He is reserving final judgment on the TPP implementing legislation until he has seen the final bill and confirms that it meets the high standards reflected in the agreement."

Rep. Derek Kilmer made a similar point. “Congressional Republicans are demanding further changes before agreeing to bring TPP up for a vote, so I want to see the final details of those negotiations before making a decision,” Kilmer said. Click here to see a summary table of survey results and here to view responses from congressional offices.

IT’S THURSDAY, AUG. 25! Welcome to Morning Trade, where we wonder if any London oddsmaker is taking bets on whether Congress will pass the TPP, or even vote on the pact. What would it take for you to down a fiver that it will be approved? Even money? Five to one? Let me know at [email protected] and @tradereporter. Trade news welcome too.

O’ROURKE POLLS CONSTITUENTS ON FACEBOOK: One House Democrat, Rep. Beto O’Rourke, has taken to Facebook to ask his constituents to weigh in on the bill. “As of today it is unclear when or even if Congress will vote on TPP,” the Texan said in the Aug. 9 post. “If we do, I will make a decision based on two criteria: first, the TPP should have a positive impact on workers and the economy of the El Paso region (including Juarez); and second, the TPP should be in the best strategic and economic interest of the United States.”

In President Barack Obama’s home city of Chicago, Rep. Mike Quigley is also still weighing the pros and cons. “I believe that small businesses and middle-class families in Chicago and across my district have the opportunity to benefit from expanded trade opportunities in the Asian-Pacific region that could create high-quality jobs for my constituents,” Quigley said. “Nonetheless, I continue to evaluate the merits of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and speak to stakeholders and constituents throughout my district about their views.”

TRAVEL GOODS DUTIES TO GET ANOTHER LIFT? The USTR could be cracking the door open to duty-free travel goods from more-developed nations — something those countries and the U.S. apparel and footwear industry have wanted since learning of the Obama administration’s decision to provide the benefit to least-developed countries.

The trade agency says in a Federal Register notice today that it will consider including the goods from those more economically advanced nations that participate in the Generalized System of Preferences program. It’s accepting public comments and will hold a hearing on the issue in October.

The Obama administration decided in June to provide the benefits to the least-developed countries in that program and African Growth and Opportunity Act nations — a move that disappointed other GSP countries, mostly in Latin America and Asia, that want duty-free access for their travel goods as well.

Trade officials from a dozen embassies said at the time that the decision allowed the “continued single-country dominance of U.S. imports in the U.S. market,” which sees a flood of handbags and suitcases from China, a non-GSP country, and Vietnam.

The American Apparel and Footwear Association was pleased with the administration’s latest move. "Today's decision opens the opportunity to revisit those countries that were left out, furthering their economic development without harming the competitiveness of the countries that were already approved for travel goods," the group’s president and CEO, Rick Helfenbein, said in a statement. "It will also make a significant positive difference in the U.S. travel goods industry and for its 100,000 American workers."

USTR plans to conclude its review of handbags, suitcases and other travel-related goods by January.

NO END IN SIGHT TO CHINA CHICKEN FLAP: The U.S. poultry industry blasted China's decision this week to extend “anti-subsidy” duties on U.S. chicken for five more years, charging that Beijing is out of compliance with the World Trade Organization’s decision on the issue.

“We are disappointed in this announcement, especially in light of the fact that the WTO has consistently and comprehensively found that China’s countervailing and anti-dumping duties violated its WTO obligations," the USA Poultry and Egg Export Council and National Chicken Council said in a joint statement. "Despite those decisions, China has still refused to remove these duties. The U.S. government has reasonably tried to work with China since then to resolve this matter consistent with the WTO dispute settlement panel’s decision, but China’s continued failure to abide by the ruling and to meet its obligations is unacceptable.”

The Chinese commerce minister announced Tuesday that China would renew duties on U.S. chicken, according to news reports. Beijing first imposed the duties in 2010 at a rate of 4 percent to 4.2 percent for three dozen of the largest U.S. poultry companies, prompting USTR to bring a case at the WTO the next year. In May, the Obama administration requested another WTO panel to determine if China has complied with the trade body’s previous ruling against the duties.

PENCE CLOSES GULF: Like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama before her, GOP vice presidential nominee Mike Pence ripped into the North American Free Trade Agreement on the campaign trail Wednesday, saying that while he has long supported free trade, manufacturing imports have skyrocketed since Bill Clinton signed the deal, hurting American workers in states like North Carolina and Indiana, POLITICO’s Matthew Nussbaum writes.

"What Donald Trump and I are talking about is not walking away from a global economy, not walking away from free trade, but rolling our sleeves up and having tough negotiations and holding our trading partners accountable to their word and to their commitments," Pence said in Charlotte, N.C.

“[T]he policies that have come out of administrations, frankly, in both political parties” have curtailed American manufacturing prowess, Pence added, closing the distance between his past pro-free trade stance and the proposals of his running mate.

He continued: “We have not been smart, we have not been tough in defending American jobs and American workers when it comes to international trade, and that’s about to change.”

Donald Trump has called NAFTA “the worst economic development deal ever signed in the history of our country” and pledged to pull the U.S. out of the pact if it's not changed to his liking, Nussbaum writes. The real-estate mogul has also vowed to withdraw from the TPP, which he calls a “disaster.” Read the full story here: http://politi.co/2bh49K5.

Fact check and flashback: Pence made a false claim Trump has repeated often, that Bill Clinton signed NAFTA. Never mind that George H.W. Bush negotiated and signed the agreement. If you’ll recall, The Washington Post bestowed two Pinocchios on Trump for stating over and over that Clinton signed NAFTA: “The trade deal was negotiated by a Republican president and passed with mostly Republican votes,” the newspaper’s Glenn Kessler explains. “Bill Clinton certainly pushed hard for its passage, even over the objections of many Democrats, but you cannot assign all of the blame — or give all of the credit — for NAFTA to Bill Clinton. ... Trump undercuts his message on trade when he exaggerates the numbers and gets the history backwards.” Read WaPo’s history lesson here: http://wapo.st/23ATrBP.

TRUMP BOLSTERS HIS ATTACK ON TRADE: The Republican nominee also hammered away on trade on Wednesday, calling the topic his “all-time favorite subject” in a speech in Tampa, Fla.

“It’s like a one-way bridge. It all goes out of this country,” Trump said, referring to jobs. “The good news is, if we win on Nov. 8, these jobs are coming back.” He repeated his seven-point plan both to bring jobs back to the country and create millions more — the first of which was to withdraw from the TPP.

Other steps involved instructing his Treasury secretary to label China a currency manipulator and his Commerce secretary to “identify every violation of trade agreements that a foreign country is currently using to harm American workers — of which there are many.”

“I don’t blame China. I don’t blame Japan and Mexico and these other countries,” Trump said. “They’re getting away with murder, but if I were them, I’d be trying to do the same thing. I blame our leaders. I want us to be on the winning side.”

PRITZKER, KERRY, ZIENTS HEADING TO NEW DELHI: Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker will join Secretary of State John Kerry and senior Indian officials for the second-ever U.S.-India Strategic and Commercial Dialogue in New Delhi next week, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday, confirming reports in the Indian press.

They will be joined by Indian Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj and India Minister of Commerce and Industry Nirmala Sitharaman. President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Narendra Modi added the commercial component to what had been strategic talks in January 2015 to reflect the growing significance of the economic relationship between the two countries, the Commerce Department said Tuesday in announcing the trip.

Pritzker will also join National Economic Council Director Jeff Zients to co-chair the second U.S.-India CEO Forum, which brings together business executives and government officials from both countries to discuss bilateral trade and investment opportunities. The CEOs are expected to make joint recommendations to the U.S. and Indian governments.

SCULLIN JOINS EX-IM: The Export-Import Bank has named Caroline L. Scullin, previously vice president for external relations at the Wilson Center, as its new senior vice president of communications. She takes over for Brad Carroll, who joined Ford Motor Co. as manager of finance and legal news last month.

The bank “will benefit from Caroline’s extensive background, working on behalf of U.S. exporters and the American jobs they support,” Ex-Im Chairman Fred Hochberg said in a statement.

Prior to her work at the public policy think tank, Scullin was communications director for the Center for International Private Enterprise, a core institute of the National Endowment for Democracy and a division of the Chamber of Commerce. Previously, she was director of public relations for the United States Government Printing Office.

BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING IN A TRUMP PRESIDENCY: Trump likes to talk a tough game on trade, and his plan to slap tariffs on goods from Mexico and China of 35 percent and 45 percent, respectively, has become a common talking point in his campaign speeches. But how much would that set back individual households at a high-shopping time like back-to-school season?

Nearly $300, according to one group’s analysis. With late August upon us, the centrist Democratic group Third Way decided to analyze how the average household’s spending on things like binders and computer printers would be affected by the hypothetical tariffs. By calculating the average unit cost of a sampling of 10 products Americans commonly buy this time of year, and adding in the appropriate proposed tariffs, the group found the average family’s bill would rise from about $1,986 to $2,284. You can read the full analysis here.

INTERNATIONAL OVERNIGHT

— Political left assails Costa over TPP, the Fresno Bee reports. http://bit.ly/2bXh3Bb

— U.S. raises concerns over European tax probe involving American companies, the Washington Post reports. http://wapo.st/2bjrXBA

— No breakthroughs likely in Indo-U.S. talks next week, the Business Standard reports. http://bit.ly/2bxOOrT

THAT'S ALL FOR MORNING TRADE! See you again soon! In the meantime, drop the team a line: [email protected] and @ABehsudi; [email protected] and @mmcassella; [email protected] and @tradereporter; [email protected] and @mjkorade; and [email protected] and @JsonHuffman. You can also follow @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Trade.

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