Leaked IPCC report details grim picture for climate change’s effects — Obama stumps for McAuliffe Presented by National Clean Energy Week

LEAKED IPCC REPORT DETAILS GRIM PICTURE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE’S EFFECTS: Climate change will have "widespread and consequential" impacts on a number of areas across the globe, according to the leaked draft of a forthcoming international climate report. The report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — detailing climate change's impacts along with adaptation and vulnerability issues — is scheduled to be finalized in March and is the second of three reports that make up the IPPC's scientific assessment.

— Pros will remember a report on climate science came out in September, and drew plenty of both praise and criticism (refresher: http://politico.pro/18QakeN). The IPCC report, including this next portion on the phenomenon’s effects, is important because it will help guide international climate negotiators hoping to reach a major agreement on emissions in 2015. A leaked copy of the draft report (so tread carefully; the language could change before March) was posted Friday on Donna Laframboise's "No Frakking Consensus" blog: http://bit.ly/1bJis3M. Here’s a look at what the report says:


Agriculture: "Without adaptation, local temperature increases of 1°C or more above preindustrial levels are projected to negatively impact yields of the major crops (wheat, rice, and maize) in tropical and temperate regions, although individual locations may benefit.” Climate change will reduce yields by as much as 2 percent per decade through 2100, compared to a scenario without climate change, the report says. Even worse: The IPCC projects demand for crops rising 14 percent per decade through 2050, adding even more pressure.

Human health: Climate change "will impact human healthy mainly by exacerbating health problems that lready exist... and climate change throughout the 21st century will lead to increases in ill-health in many regions." For example: Injury and death from stronger heat waves, poor nutrition due to "diminished food production." The report also notes some positive impacts (that it says do not outweigh the negative), including fewer deaths due to extreme cold.

Security issues: “Climate change indirectly increases risks from violent conflict in the form of civil war, inter-group violence and violent protests by exacerbating well-established drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks.”

Sea level rise: “By 2100, due to climate change and development patterns and without adaptation, hundreds of millions of people will be affected by coastal flooding and displaced due to land loss,” particularly in East, Southeast and South Asia, the report says.

Water resources: “Climate change will reduce renewable surface water and groundwater resources significantly in most dry subtropic regions, exacerbating competition for water among sectors. ... In contrast, water resources will increase at high latitudes."

Always check the footnotes: Andy Revkin of NYT's Dot Earth blog notes a footnote of the report that qualifies that the observed impacts are linked to climate change in general, not anthropogenic climate change in particular (the extent to which climate change is caused or affected by human activity is still a point of contention). “To my eye, this greatly limits the significance of many findings given that the big questions for society still center on how quickly to curb greenhouse gas emissions,” Revkin writes: http://nyti.ms/1dBUMR3

ICYMI: The report leaked on the same day that President Barack Obama issued an executive order pushing federal agencies and states to strengthen infrastructure and against storms made stronger by climate change. Darren Goode has more: http://politi.co/1amySNa

SPEAKING OF GLOOMY OUTLOOKS: Via Bloomberg: “The only three living diplomats who have led the United Nations global warming talks said there’s little chance the next climate treaty will prevent the world from overheating. … ‘There is nothing that can be agreed in 2015 that would be consistent with the 2 degrees,’ said Yvo de Boer, who was UNFCCC executive secretary in 2009, when attempts to reach a deal at a summit in Copenhagen crumbled with a rift between industrialized and developing nations. ‘The only way that a 2015 agreement can achieve a 2-degree goal is to shut down the whole global economy.’” Bloomberg: http://bloom.bg/183WLJr

SPEAKING OF CLIMATE: Four climate scientists, including former NASA scientist James Hansen and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution, say environmental groups need to embrace more nuclear power to fight climate change. AP: http://apne.ws/1cDjUWs

HAPPY MONDAY and welcome to Morning Energy, where we recommend this fascinating NPR interview with astronaut Chris Hadfield: http://n.pr/1bDcfGD. Send your energy news to [email protected], and follow on Twitter @alexcguillen, @Morning_Energy and @POLITICOPro.

OBAMA STUMPS FOR McAULIFFE, HITS CUCCINELLI ON MANN PROBE: President Barack Obama dove headfirst into Virginia’s gubernatorial race in Arlington Sunday when he campaigned for Terry McAuliffe — and Obama made sure to take a subtle swipe at Republican attorney general Ken Cuccinelli’s position on climate change. “It doesn’t create jobs when you go after scientists, and you try to offer your own alternative theories of how things work and engage in litigation around stuff that isn't political,” Obama said, referring to Cuccinelli’s probe into climate scientist Michael Mann’s work while at the University of Virginia. “It has to do with what's true. It has to do with facts. You don’t argue with facts.” The Mann probe has been a key point in some of McAuliffe’s campaign ads, as well as campaigning done on the Democrat’s behalf by green groups.

— Obama also offered spoke more directly about energy, joining those hoping to turn Virginia from a fossil fuel-dependent state into a hub of alternative energy research and deployment. Obama: “We know that there's no contradiction between a smart energy policy that makes sure that we're not only investing in energy sources of the past, but also energy sources of the future; that we're caring for our environment and we're thinking about what kind of legacy we're leaving to our children, and we can still grow and be at the cutting edge of those changes here in Virginia and all across the country. Terry understands that.”

Big picture: Alex Burns has more on what environmental and liberal groups have done in Virginia’s gubernatorial race: http://politi.co/183XoTm

Cup o’ Joe: Vice President Joe Biden is stumping for McAuliffe in Annandale this morning.

GAVEL WATCH — BP TAKES COMPLAINT TO FIFTH CIRCUIT: The AP reports: “A year ago, lawyers for BP and Gulf Coast residents and businesses took turns urging a federal judge to approve their settlement for compensating victims of the company’s massive 2010 oil spill. On Monday, however, the one-time allies will be at odds when an appeals court hears objections to the multibillion-dollar deal. That’s because several months after U.S. District Judge Carl Barbier approved the settlement, BP started complaining that the judge and court-appointed claims administrator were misinterpreting it. The London-based oil giant is worried it could be forced to pay billions of dollars more for bogus or inflated claims by businesses.” AP: http://wapo.st/16xxAS3

** The energy industry supports 9.8 million American jobs. And every job created by the energy industry creates nearly three more indirect and induced jobs across the economy. This year alone, Chevron is investing $8.9 billion in U.S. energy projects. See more on how energy moves our economy forward. http://www.chevron.com/energyeconomy

WELLINGHOFF TALKS GRID CYBERSECURITY: The federal government and transmission owners have been moving toward strengthening the grid from cyberattacks, FERC Chairman Jon Wellinghoff said this weekend on the “The Aaron Harber Show.” Wellinghoff: “It’s fair to say that there are vulnerabilities. I don’t think it’s pretty vulnerable right now. There’s been a lot of discussion about it, and there certainly is no question that there are continued attempts to break into the grid. But to my knowledge there’s never been a successful attempt that broke into a high-level transmission system and had a serious impact.” Video: http://bit.ly/16gWipI

— And FERC’s work patrolling energy markets has been successful, Wellinghoff said. “JP Morgan, for example, decided they couldn't make money in the market anymore, so they're no longer going to be in the commodity markets,” Wellinghoff said. “So in essence what we're doing is clearing out of the market actors who really can't operate in that market in a fair way and still make money, and we want to make sure that ultimately those markets are operated fairly and transparently.”

TIME FOR U.S. TO PLAY BALL ON ENVIRO INITIATIVES, REDFORD SAYS: Ahead of Alberta Premier Alison Redford’s visit to Washington next week, where she will meet with State Department officials on the Keystone XL pipeline, Redford says Canada was been working to showcase its environmental record — but that the U.S. is going to have to play ball as well. “We know that it's important for people in the United States to know that we have a strong environmental record, and … we also, and it's also the case in Alberta, want to make sure that before we put any regulations in place that could limit our competitiveness, that we're seeing also some movement from the United States,” Redford told CTV this weekend. “We can do more, we're prepared to do more, but we want to do it in partnership with the United States.” CTV: http://bit.ly/1cCnLmN

NSA USED BALI CONFERENCE TO SPY: Via the Guardian: “Australian spy agency the Defence Signals Directorate worked alongside America’s National Security Agency in mounting a massive surveillance operation on Indonesia during the United Nations climate change conference in Bali in 2007. … But the NSA’s base in Australia, at Pine Gap, was less interested in combating climate change than collecting the numbers of Indonesian security officials in case of a future emergency.” Guardian: http://bit.ly/1h8NdX1

QUICK HITS

— USA Today looks at when the natural gas boom might end: http://usat.ly/1haSNYQ

— The former head of Iran's central bank is the new Gas Exporting Countries Forum president. AP: http://bit.ly/1alUYPS

— Coal-fired power plants are adding wood into their fuel mix as a way to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. New York Times: http://nyti.ms/1alr6mH

— The Bureau of Land Management has a new proposal to tighten restrictions around sage grouse habitat. AP: http://bit.ly/1alspC4

— Rep. Lee Terry (R-Neb.) has picked up a Republican challenger. Omaha World-Herald: http://bit.ly/HnRpBP

THIS WEEK IN THE SENATE

Tuesday — The Environment and Public Works Committee's oversight panel holds a hearing on methane emissions from oil and gas operations. http://1.usa.gov/16xDToP. 2:30 p.m., Dirksen 406

Tuesday — The Agriculture Committee's forestry panel hosts a hearing on wildfire fighting budgets. http://1.usa.gov/1hESoMd. 2:30 p.m., Russell 328

Wednesday — The Commerce Committee holds a hearing on reauthorization of the America COMPETES Act, which funds science R&D and education programs. http://1.usa.gov/1aLllmA. 2:30 p.m., Russell 253

Wednesday — The Homeland Security Committee's disaster recovery panel looks at ongoing recovery from Hurricane Sandy. http://1.usa.gov/1cCAOoa. 2:30 p.m., Dirksen 342

THAT’S ALL FOR ME. Have a great week.

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