The growth projections have sparked major concerns by planning experts on whether the areas have infrastructure needed to cope with the population boom. Many of the areas expected to experience the greatest population growth are on Melbourne’s expanding suburban fringes. In Melbourne’s west, Melton South, Tarneit, Werribee West, Werribee South, Wyndham Vale and Point Cook South are projected to double in size, along with Hillside, in Melbourne’s north-west. In Melbourne’s north, such suburbs include Greenvale/Bulla, Craigieburn West, Mickleham/Yuroke, Wollert and Whittlesea, and stretch all the way to Wallan, which lies outside the current metropolitan boundary.

The fastest-growing areas in Melbourne’s south-east are expected to be Cranbourne South, Cranbourne East, Beaconsfield/Officer and Bunyip/Garfield. Cranbourne East more than doubled in population over the past five years, and is projected to do so again by 2036. The department’s principal demographer, David Sykes, said the projections were calculated using mathematical models, expert knowledge and trend analysis to provide an estimate of the future size, distribution and composition of the population. RMIT professor of urban policy Jago Dodson said that under these population projections the Wyndham municipality, which takes in Werribee, will have a population in 2036, equivalent to that of Tasmania. Loading

“You’ve got to ask - does the population in Wyndham have the full suite of services that you would see in a state?” Professor Dodson said there were some serious deficits in how growth suburbs were planned, particularly in regards to access to public transport, access to high-skilled jobs and a lack of cultural facilities. “We need a more holistic sense of how these places are planned, rather than seeing them as dormitory suburbs where people commute out every day,” he said. Inner-city Melbourne is also tipped to undergo a continued population surge from high-density developments in the coming years, with Footscray, Docklands, South Melbourne, the CBD and North Melbourne all expected to double in resident numbers by 2036. Land for sale in Rockbank. Credit:Luis Ascui

Port Melbourne’s industrial zone, the site of the Fishermans Bend urban renewal project, was home to a grand total of 25 people in 2016. But by 2036 its population is set to swell to more than 23,000 residents. The population projections data counts Port Melbourne’s industrial zone as a distinct area from Port Melbourne itself, which currently has a population of about 17,500. High-rises at the Flemington Racecourse area are tipped to cause its population to exceed 3000. The high-growing areas are not all on Melbourne’s fringes or high-density inner suburbs - Delacombe and Alfredton, in Ballarat, and Grovedale, in Geelong, are tipped to double their population by 2036. The president of the Planning Institute of Australia’s Victorian branch Laura Murray said middle ring suburbs were not taking on the development load needed to support population growth.

“A lot of the councils haven’t updated their housing strategies,” she said. “A lot of the blanket residential zone exists, which only allows for up to two storeys, so you are not going to see that medium density development that really supports vibrant communities.” The state’s population is expected to surge from 6.2 million in 2016 to about 8.7 million by 2036, reaching 11.2 million in 2056. Loading Most of that growth is forecast to be in the metropolitan region, which added its five millionth resident last year. Melbourne is tipped to overtake Sydney as the country’s largest city around the middle of the next decade, grow to about seven million by 2036, and then cross the nine million mark in 2056. But there are 27 suburbs - largely rural and regional suburbs that are expected to shrink in size, based on current trends in births, deaths and net migration. The West Wimmera region, which takes in Horsham and Nhill, is tipped to decline by about 20 per cent in the coming years.