This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble and bust, followed by strong investor buying.



The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):



1) Overall sales in January were up 15.9% year-over-year.



2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 27.1% of total sales.



3) Active inventory is now down 7.7% year-over-year.



More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014. And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.



In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster. Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.



This is the third consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory following eight months with YoY increases. This might be a change in trend - something to watch.





January Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS Sales YoY

Change

Sales Cash

Sales Percent

Cash Active

Inventory YoY

Change

Inventory Jan-08 2,907 --- 553 19.0% 56,8741 --- Jan-09 4,736 62.9% 1,625 34.3% 53,581 -5.8% Jan-10 5,789 22.2% 2,475 42.8% 41,506 -22.5% Jan-11 6,539 13.0% 3,263 49.9% 42,881 3.3% Jan-12 6,455 -1.3% 3,198 49.5% 25,025 -41.6% Jan-13 5,790 -10.3% 2,555 44.1% 22,090 -11.7% Jan-14 4,799 -17.1% 1,740 36.3% 28,630 29.6% Jan-15 4,785 -0.3% 1,529 32.0% 27,238 -4.9% Jan-16 5,199 8.7% 1,425 27.4% 25,736 -5.5% Jan-17 6,028 15.9% 1,631 27.1% 23,762 -7.7% 1 January 2008 probably included pending listings