Texas drought will lighten up by winter, report says



Click through the slideshow to see how the 2014 drought affected some of Texas' major reservoirs. less See where Texas' major reservoirs were at in the drought of 2014 compared to almost 20 years earlier using data from the Texas Water Development Board.

Click through the slideshow to see how the 2014 drought ... more See where Texas' major reservoirs were at in the drought of 2014 compared to almost 20 years earlier using data from the Texas Water Development Board. Image 1 of / 174 Caption Close Texas drought will lighten up by winter, report says 1 / 174 Back to Gallery

SAN ANTONIO – Three years have passed since Texas endured one of the worst droughts in history. In September and October of 2011, more than 80 percent of the state was in an exceptional drought, the highest category on the U.S. drought monitor scale.

Today, 59 percent of the state is experiencing drought conditions from moderate to exceptional, while 22 percent is experiencing dry conditions and 19 percent is experiencing no drought.

A new report from the Climate Prediction Center states that drought conditions in Texas most likely will improve or end by the end of the year. The only area in Texas that will experience persistent or intensified drought conditions is the southern point of the state.

Victor Murphy, climate services program manager for the National Weather Service, said the drought already has been lifted in some eastern portions of the state, including Houston. But, the land from the Panhandle to Wichita Falls, have remained in an extreme drought, he said.

For Bexar County, Murphy said conditions range from dry to a moderate drought.

"Areas right now that are only in moderate drought should probably improve and get out of drought," he said.

Unfortunately, Murphy said although wet conditions will return, the drought's symptoms may never leave. For example, he said Medina Lake's low capacity may never return to normal, unless there is an "extremely unusual" amount of rainfall.

"I'll be honest, I'm not sure it's ever going get to back to where it was," he said. "It's going to take a protracted period of heavy rain over a long period of time to get Medina Lake back to normal."

Medina Lake, just west of San Antonio, is 4.1 percent full, and has climbed since the record low of 2.7 percent capacity in May, when the lake was 91 feet below normal.

"This drought's been so persistent for so long, that normal rainfall is not good enough," he said.

He also stated that the Edwards Aquifer currently sits at 627.1 feet, the lowest since the drought began in October 2010.

Dry conditions began after tropical storm Hermine hit the southern coast in early September.

"It's almost like some flipped a light switch," Murphy said, referring to the sudden drought, which has been the worst Texas has seen since the 1950s.

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook report is valid through Nov. 30, and was based on both short and long term conditions, climatology and El Niño forecasts.

For the nation, dry conditions are expected to worsen throughout California, Nevada, Oregon and parts of Utah, Idaho and Washington, the report states.

California is facing one of the worst droughts on record, and Gov. Jerry Brown declared a drought State of Emergency in January. Even celebrities, such as Lady Gaga and Conan O'Brien, have urged Californians to conserve water to help to ease drought symptoms.

California's drought has quickly intensified since late 2011, when majority of the state was experiencing do drought, the drought monitor states. Drought conditions climbed slowly on a weekly basis until January. Since January, exceptional drought conditions have increased from nonexistent to the current reading of 58 percent.

rsalinas@mysa.com