Russia creates a coalition to fight militant jihadism and the Islamic State. The US however remains obsessed with ovethrowing Assad, and will do everything it can to be obstructive

The start of Russian air attacks on rebel positions in Syria clarifies some of the uncertainties of the previous weeks.

It is now clear that the earlier reports that the Russians were already in action were - as we said - untrue, and was disinformation that was being spread deliberately.

We speculated that the purpose of this disinformation was to discredit a Russian diplomatic initiative to revive Kofi Annan’s 2012 Geneva Peace Plan, which called for the setting up of a transitional government and negotiations between President Assad and his opponents.

That does seem partly true. Such a diplomatic initiative is indeed underway. Putin referred to it again at a government meeting on 30th September 2015, shortly after confirmation of the air strikes. His words were as follows:

“Our view is that a final and long-term solution to the situation in Syria is possible only on the basis of political reform and dialogue between all healthy forces in the country. I know that President al-Assad knows this and is ready for this process. We are counting on his active and flexible position and his readiness to make compromises for the sake of his country and people.”

It seems however that the main purpose of the disinformation campaign was to turn public opinion against Russia’s plan - coordinated with President Assad’s government and with the governments of Iraq and Iran - to launch air strikes in support of the Syrian army. The US of course knew that this was Russia’s plan, because the Russians told them.

This proved a major miscalculation. It turned out that instead of rallying to oppose Russian action against the Islamic State and the other jihadi militant groups in Syria before it took place, Western public opinion supported it (see for example here and here).

It is the Western public support for Russia’s actions that has left Western governments baffled and uncertain what to do.

Western governments are nonetheless furious about what has happened. Anyone who doubts this need only look at the sour comments they are making, and the angry - though baffled - response of the Western media.

This anger is to a great extent because - as has become obvious over recent weeks - for Western governments it is the overthrow of President Assad rather than the defeat of the Islamic State that is the priority.

To the extent that Russia’s actions secure President Assad’s position, Western governments are therefore openly hostile.

Beyond this however is the deep sense of humiliation felt in Washington (and in Paris and London) that it is Russia which in Syria has captured the initiative.

As I discussed in an article for Sputnik, for the “exceptional country” (ie. the US) the idea that Russia might wrest leadership from the US on a key international issue is simply intolerable.

The result is that we do not have a single international coalition fighting militant jihadism and the Islamic State in Syria.

What we have are two entirely different coalitions working at cross-purposes and in rivalry with each other.

One is a US led coalition, which is acting illegally, and whose ultimate objective is the overthrow of President Assad.

The other is a Russian led coalition, which is acting legally (since it is doing so at the request of the Syrian government), and which is seeking the defeat of the Islamic State and of militant jihadism in Syria.

The Russian led coalition includes Iran, Iraq and Hezbollah. The Saker is surely right that the Russian air strikes are being closely coordinated with these powers, and that Iran and Hezbollah are involved on the ground.

The Russians have made it clear that their role is purely to provide technical assistance and air support in support of the ground offensive being carried out by the Syrian army with the support of Syria's regional allies.

Putin said this quite clearly at the government meeting on 30th September 2015:

“…….(W)e naturally have no intention of getting deeply entangled in this conflict. We will act strictly in accordance with our set mission. First, we will support the Syrian army only in its lawful fight against terrorist groups. Second, our support will be limited to airstrikes and will not involve ground operations. Third, our support will have a limited timeframe and will continue only while the Syrian army conducts its anti-terrorist offensive.”

Criticism from the US and its allies that the initial Russian air strikes did not target places actually controlled by the Islamic State seem on the basis of previous reports to be not merely untrue, but ignore what Putin said the Russian military’s mission is: to provide air support to the Syrian army (for a well-informed discussion of the Russian strategy see this report on the Moon of Alabama blog).

Naturally the Russian aircraft (SU24 fighter bombers judging from the film released of the air strikes) therefore attacked positions close to the front line, which are in the path of the pending offensive by the Syrian army.

Much has been written about the prospects of the Russian air campaign, with many making the point that US air strikes on the Islamic State have proved almost completely ineffective, and that the number of aircraft the Russians have sent to Syria is insufficient to make a decisive difference.

The key difference however with the US bombing campaign is that the Russian air strikes are being coordinated with the Syrian military. Unlike the US strikes, they are happening in support of the primary force that has so far successfully held the line in Syria against militant jihadis and the Islamic State: the Syrian army.

That at least creates a possibility that they might achieve more success than the US strikes have so far done.

Against that is the fact that the US will do whatever it can to make this operation fail.

Though it is currently boxed in by the Western public’s reaction (consider this extraordinary comment overheard being said by a Pentagon official), the US is fundamentally unreconciled to what Russia is doing. It will be looking for ways to discredit and obstruct it even as this piece is being written.