The Tory leadership tour has reached Exeter, and as party member Louise Bentley from Bridgwater waits patiently to hear Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt make their pitches she already seems sure who she wants to be the next prime minister. “I think I will vote for Boris,” she says. “There are times when this country needs someone to take us out of a crisis, like Churchill, and I think he can do that.”

Jeremy Hunt ‘can chip away’ at Tory leadership rival’s fragile support Read more

Two hours later, after the contenders have left the stage – both having been well received – Bentley turns round and announces a potential switch of allegiance: “I think I may have changed my mind. Hunt was very polished. He seemed to have an answer for everything. He comes across as more prime ministerial. My heart says Boris, but my gut feeling is that Hunt may be better.”

Bentley is not alone. There is plenty of affection for Johnson among the Tory faithful, who will decide on behalf of the entire country who will enter No 10 well before the end of next month. They laugh at his jokes and love his “do or die”, “deal or no deal” commitment to take the UK out of the EU on 31 October. Few seem to worry about the recent complications in his private life, which have hardly been mentioned in two days of hustings along the south-west coast.

But do they think he can be prime minister? As she gets up to leave the conference hall outside Exeter, Gail Vickery, who has come all the way from Polzeath in north Cornwall, gives her answer and, strikingly, it is much the same as Bentley’s. “I came thinking I would vote for Boris against my better judgment. Now I think I am going to vote for Hunt because he will make the better prime minister, though I do hope he doesn’t let me down over Brexit. We need to leave on 31 October.”

Down the aisle of emptying seats, half-a-dozen elderly gentlemen stay behind and are chatting. They all seem undecided now, whereas before they indicated that they, too, had been leaning towards Johnson.

Chris Waite, from Sherborne, Dorset, is getting closer to a decision, however. He arrived in a state of thoughtful indecision, but now his mind is clearing. “Boris gave the audience a buzz,” he says. “But Hunt’s arguments were so much better. If you saw a transcript of their answers, there would be no comparison. If I had to vote now as I walk out of here, I would vote for Hunt.”

Ballot papers go out to the 150,000 or so paid-up Tory members this week. Party organisers say that they expect many to return them without much delay. “Experience shows us that a lot of our members reply by return [of post]. They are very organised, this lot,” said one party source. This, therefore, is a crucial time in the contest and members are taking their duties very seriously.

“After last time, when we got Theresa May, they know how important it is,” said an MP who is on tour with the “Has to be Hunt” campaign. “They didn’t get a say in that election because May got in unopposed. They are determined to get this one right.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Jeremy Hunt speaking during a hustings. Photograph: Ian Forsyth/PA

Yesterday the hustings rolled in to Manchester and went north to Carlisle. There are still a dozen to go up and down the country and Johnson remains the clear favourite. Our Opinium poll of 1,000 Tory voters today shows 52% would back him and 30% Hunt to be the next PM.

But there are signs of hope for Hunt. While 61% think Johnson would be most likely to beat Jeremy Corbyn in a general election (against 19% for Hunt), the gap is narrower when Conservative backers are asked who they think would be the better prime minister, the question uppermost in many members’ minds (47% say Johnson and 27% say Hunt). While opinions of Johnson have not changed over the past fortnight, despite last weekend’s stories about a late-night row with his girlfriend Carrie Symonds, more Tories have begun to feel positively about Hunt than did so two weeks ago.

Most of Johnson’s appeal to the Tory faithful rests in his hardline message on Brexit. In Bournemouth on Thursday night and Exeter on Friday, he went briefly for the pantomime approach, telling his audience that there are “three things” the next leader needs to get done. “And the first is what? What?” he thundered. “Brexit!,” cheered the members in response. “Yes! Get Brexit done!,” Johnson roared. But this was as raucous as it got. There is a limit to how much fun these Tories want to have in the prime ministerial auditions, and Johnson knows it. He tries hard to rein back the humour. But when it turns to dry policy, he can fare less well. In Bournemouth a local member asked what he would do to improve NHS dentistry, something Johnson had to admit he had yet to turn his mind to in great detail, if at all.

By contrast, Hunt has to try to be funny, as his natural default setting is managerial, sober and reassuring. When he comes on stage after Johnson, it can all seem rather flat. But in a strange way – and with time – that plays to his strength, as the Hunt message is all about seriousness. “These are serious times and we need a serious person in No 10,” the Hunt campaign team says with tedious predictability in response to almost every question. Hunt himself also plays the “entrepreneur” and “negotiator” cards with grating regularity. “And how many people here have set up a business?” he asks at each hustings. A few put up their hands in the Bournemouth Pavilion theatre, but not that many. “So that is the Tory party, then!” he says, ploughing on regardless.

Wherever the two candidates pitch up, Johnson’s fans are out there in force, as are Hunt’s. Just as the country and political parties are split over Brexit, the Tory party is split over its next leader. There are strong feelings on both sides. Steve Parselle, from Bournemouth, declared on Thursday evening that it was no contest. “Boris is bringing some invigoration back to politics,” he said. “Jeremy Hunt would be Theresa May in trousers. I think Boris will give hope back to the country.”

But yards away an elderly lady, who asked not to be named because she feared a dressing down from her local party, said of Johnson: “I have told him that when he has learned to cut his hair and tuck his shirt in, I might vote for him. And he is a complete master of obfuscation. It makes me cringe. I will back Hunt as the lesser of two evils.” Michael Draper, from the Romsey and Southampton North party, said he too was worried about Johnson. “If you are going to put your finger on the nuclear button, you don’t want someone doing it who just cracks jokes,” he said.

Down in Exeter, after watching both candidates, Paul Bradly from Yeovil was more generous to Johnson, but also made his preference clear. “I like Boris and I enjoy listening to him. But I want someone who I can respect and who I am proud to have leading my country.”

A couple of weeks ago, after Johnson won the ballot of Tory MPs by a mile, it seemed the hustings tour would be one long victory parade for the former foreign secretary, with the current one, Jeremy Hunt, going along just for the ride. But it does not feel that way now.