This post is the first in what will be a series of articles on Congressional Democrats’ best chances for gains in the 2016 election cycle.

The first step to any Democratic majority in the House of Representatives runs through Illinois’ 10th congressional district. The seat, located in the suburbs of Chicago, voted for President Obama by a remarkable 17 point margin in the 2012 election. However, the seat has always proved more difficult to win on the congressional level. Prior to 2012, the seat had been reliably Republican since Ronald Regan’s election in 1980.

2012 was the Democratic Party’s first sign of hope in the seat, when Brad Schneider, with significant support from the DCCC, managed to wrestle control of the seat away from moderate Republican Bob Dold, partially thanks to favorable redistricting by Illinois Democrats. It seemed as if the Democratic party had finally flipped the seat in a way that was going to stick. The district’s more liberal electorate would ensure that IL-10 would be the silver lining for Democrats in what was otherwise a dismal redistricting cycle. However, a perfect storm of low turnout, unfavorable political climate and an opponent with high name recognition would again steal the seat away from the Democratic Party.

During the run-up to the 2014 election, Bob Dold announced his campaign to take back his old House seat. Because of the intensity of the campaigns in the both in the 2010 and 2012 campaign cycle, he had already established high name recognition within his district, allowing him to move past the biggest hurdle most political challengers face. However, this wasn’t the only advantage that Congressman Dold held in his race to unseat Brad Schneider: He was a member of the Financial Services Committee during his first stint in the House. During his time there, he managed to create relationships with big business interests, who donated seemingly limitless sums of money to Dold’s 2014 bid. In other words, the rematch was not a typical congressional race: The challenger had both the name ID and fundraising prowess of an incumbent.

This influx of corporate cash allowed Dold to rebrand himself as a moderate hero in a Washington filled with partisan hacks. He would accept the science of climate change. He would declare himself as pro-choice. He would even become a Republican who supported gay marriage, as long as religious organizations could still discriminate against gay people with no real consequences. And despite these “moderate” positions, his still opposed bans on additional oil drilling in Lake Michigan, and he’s voted to defund Planed Parenthood and end all federal funding for abortions. However, enough voters bought into Dold’s new profile, and, aided by the low turnout resulting from the lack of voter enthusiasm nationwide, he managed to eke out a win by a margin of less than 5000 votes.

However, Dold has not lived up to the moderate identity he has assigned himself since returning to Congress, and this gives Democrats the perfect opportunity for a pickup in 2016. Aided by higher turnout and a favorable political climate, a credible challenger should be able to turn this seat blue for the foreseeable future. And with House Democrats having fewer seats than any time since the Eisenhower presidency, electing a Democrat from the district will be critical to gaining back a majority. What’s more, national Democrats already think that they’ve found that challenger in none other than former Congressman Brad Schneider.

Already having declared his candidacy for the 2016 election, it looks as if Schneider will once again blow past his Democratic primary challenger, Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering, who’s polling at a dismal 12 percent among likely primary voters. And because of his connections in Congress, the DCCC is almost sure to back Schneider in any primary fight.

While Dold will continue to be heavily backed by the big banks, Schneider possibly has an even greater advantage. There were almost 60,000 fewer votes cast in Dold’s 2014 win than Schneider’s victory in 2012. The increased turnout of a presidential election immediately puts Dold in a vulnerable position, no matter how many dollars he has in his campaign war chest.

If the Democratic victory in the district is anywhere near the size of Obama’s margin in 2012, Schneider will stand to gain immensely from those coattails. As split ticket voting is becoming less and less prevalent over time, it’s likely that there simply won’t be enough crossover support to keep Dold afloat. That makes the Illinois 10th Democratic target number one.