MD's Column

Skymet Weather Team

In the last ten days or so the Southwest Monsoon definitely made good progress with regions like East, Central and South India observing moderate amounts of rain. This was clearly evident by the fact that the Northern Limit of Monsoon or the NML made 6 days of consecutive progress from June 20 to June 25. This period, as reiterated by Skymet can easily be termed as the best for the month of June.

Thereafter, the NLM became static for close to three days making progress again on June 28. The NLM is currently passing through Dwarka, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Jabalpur, Pendra, Sultanpur, Lakhimpur Kheri and Mukteshwar.

The cumulative rainfall deficiency in the country due to poor rains in June currently stands at 33%. If we look at the subdivision wise shortage, the rainiest region of the country, East and Northeast India is facing the largest shortfall of 37%. Northwest India is second with a deficit of 32%, followed by Central India 31% and South Peninsula 30%. The table below with red, yellow and white legends show districts with huge rainfall deficiencies.

Due to weak Monsoon rains in June, reservoirs across the country are also running short of their capacity. There are about 91 major reservoirs out of which 86 of them are below 40 % of their long term average capacity. South India has about 31 reservoirs -maximum in the country- out of which 30 are below 40 % of their long term average capacity. West and East India are other regions where reservoirs are at high stress. The following table will give you a complete picture of the reservoir status across the country.

A fortnight of good rain in July

Meanwhile, another Monsoon surge is expected from June 30 to July 15 with a short break in between. This spell would be a result of a low-pressure area which is likely to form in the Bay of Bengal. Odisha, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, South Chattisgarh, northern parts of Telangana, South Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, parts of Madhya Maharashtra, Southwest Madhya Pradesh, North Madhya Maharashtra, South Rajasthan and Gujarat would benefit the maximum from this spell.

Looking at good rains over Central India, farmers are advised to sow crops if not yet sown. Proper drainage should be maintained in the farms in case of medium to heavy rains to avoid water logging as it may damage the standing crops. They are also advised to use herbicides at this point of time as it will be more effective in controlling herbs and weeds.

This would also be a period for watching out for any pest or disease specially in crops like paddy, soybean and pulses.

Forecast of heavy rain in Mumbai

The commercial capital Mumbai is at serious risk of flooding between July 3 and July 5. Close to 200 mm or more rain/ day is going to batter the city during this period, which could hamper normal life in the city. July also looks extremely promising for Mumbai after good rains were observed in the month of June.

Chennai, on the other hand, has not seen good rains for a very long time now. The city is reeling under intense water shortage with most of the city reservoir below their long term average capacity. And the forecast of a dry spell for the city in the first week of July is only going to make matters worse.