Updated Sunday 2/28 at 1:20p.

Oscars so predictable

It should be just a bit easier to complete your Oscar pool this year. Almost all of the races heading into this weekend's Oscar ceremony appear to be settled, though you can usually count on one upset or two. If not, we could be in for a boring night on Sunday when Chris Rock hosts the 88th Annual Academy Awards ceremony, airing at 8:30pm ET (5:30pm PT) on ABC.

Below, we've aggregated predictions from nearly 70 entertainment writers, critics, and awards experts, and compared them to the votes cast by over 6,600 Metacritic visitors who voted in our 7th annual Oscar poll. Also listed are the latest betting odds in each category as published at Bet365 (as of Monday, February 22).

Best picture and director

The best picture race is actually one of the most competitive categories this year, despite the fact that it has a fairly clear favorite, with The Revenant the consensus pick of experts and Metacritic users in addition to oddsmakers. And that film's director, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, looks likely to score back-to-back wins in the director category, after winning for Birdman last year. (Iñárritu also produced both films, and co-wrote Birdman, which means he could wind up with a total of five Academy Award trophies in a two-year span).

Best Picture

Best Director

Acting

For the third straight year, all four acting categories appear to have certain winners well in advance of the Oscar ceremony. Not one expert dared to pick against Brie Larson and only one did so against Leonardo DiCaprio in the lead categories—both will be first-time winners if they follow through on expectations—and only a handful went against the consensus in the supporting categories.

Lead Actress

Betting Odds Experts Users Brie Larson

Room 1:25 Brie Larson

Room 100% Brie Larson

Room 67% Saoirse Ronan

Brooklyn 12:1 Cate Blanchett

Carol 16% Cate Blanchett

Carol 33:1 Jennifer Lawrence

Joy 8% Jennifer Lawrence

Joy 33:1 Saoirse Ronan

Brooklyn 6%

Lead Actor

Supporting Actress

Supporting Actor

Writing

Again, there is little suspense here, with both screenplay categories featuring overwhelming favorites. And the two pairs of writers favored to win will become first-time Oscar winners if they do indeed take home the statuettes.

Original Screenplay

Adapted Screenplay

Other films and shorts

The animated, documentary, and foreign-language categories appear to have little suspense this year. That is in line with recent trends toward clear favorites in those three categories, though this year's races seem even more settled than usual. The short film categories, meanwhile, continue to be the races that will make or break your Oscar pool. (Even when there is a strong consensus in the short film categories, it is often wrong, though last year the experts got all three races correct.)

Animated Feature

Documentary Feature

Foreign Language Film

Animated Short

Betting Odds Experts Users Sanjay's Super Team 8:11 Sanjay's Super Team 46% World of Tomorrow 36% World of Tomorrow 11:8 World of Tomorrow 32% Sanjay's Super Team 22% Bear Story 8:1 Bear Story 22% Bear Story 19%

Documentary Short

Betting Odds Experts Users Body Team 12 8:11 Body Team 12 47% Last Day of Freedom 34% Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah 7:4 Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah 31% Body Team 12 25% A Girl in the River:The Price of Forgiveness 10:1 A Girl in the River:The Price of Forgiveness 15% A Girl in the River:The Price of Forgiveness 21%

Live Action Short

Betting Odds Experts Users Ave Maria 8:15 Shok 37% Ave Maria 27% Shok 3:1 Ave Maria 36% Day One 26% Stutterer 7:1 Stutterer 17% Everything Will Be Okay 20%

Music

Legendary film composer Ennio Morricone has never won an Oscar. That should change on Sunday, as he appears to be a sure thing to convert his sixth nomination into a trophy. The original song category also appears to have little suspense, with Diane Warren and Lady Gaga's composition for the college sexual assault documentary The Hunting Ground looking like the winner.

Original Score

Original Song

Technical categories

All three groups (oddsmakers, experts, users) are predicting a near-sweep of the technical categories by Mad Max: Fury Road (which could make that film the biggest winner on the night), though visual effects and costume design appear to be close races. One notable exception: Emmanuel Lubezki looks like a lock to take home an unprecedented third consecutive cinematography Oscar for his work on The Revenant.

Cinematography

Costume Design

Film Editing

Makeup & Hairstyling

Production Design

Sound Editing

Sound Mixing

Visual Effects

List of experts

The expert predictions compiled above come from the following sources (note that not every expert made picks in every category):

Check our site Monday morning for the final results as we reveal which users and experts had the most accurate predictions. We'll also collect reviews of the broadcast from TV critics.



