

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) poses for a photo. (Photo by Rex C. Curry/For The Washington Post)

It would be difficult for the oil industry to find a more dependable friend in Congress than Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Mary Landrieu (D-La.). Now Landrieu will learn how dependable a friend the industry is to her.

Landrieu strongly supports the Keystone XL pipeline and fracking. She has upbraided the Obama administration for not moving faster to issue permits for natural gas exports. And she backed Republican-sponsored amendments that would have blocked federal agencies from pricing carbon, curbing greenhouse gases or protecting streams and wetlands.

But in a tight battle for control of the Senate, a Landrieu victory could tip the balance of power away from Republicans, who tend to be more sympathetic to oil and gas industry goals. And many conservatives — and oil industry contributors — fervently want to oust Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who opposes the Keystone pipeline and crude oil exports and who has blocked such energy measures from reaching the Senate floor.

If the oil industry is torn now, it could face an even more agonizing choice after election day. Under Louisiana election law, a candidate needs to win 50 percent of the vote and the four-way senate race seems destined for a runoff. If at that point the Louisiana race can alter control of the Senate, then oil and gas companies that have supported Landrieu could still change course and donate money to her runoff foe.

The industry, and its lobbyists, are watching the race closely. “There are a whole lot of parlor games going on about what could happen,” said Marty Durbin, president of America’s Natural Gas Alliance, whose political action committee has donated $5,000 to Landrieu. “Few people are in a position to say here’s exactly what we’re going to do. There are too many intangibles at this point.”

The Louisiana contest also provides a window onto the evolution of interest group politics in a partisan era. The oil and gas industry once could count on many Democrats from Texas and other states, but its allies on the Democratic side of the aisle have dried up. And now standing by Landrieu, one of its last Democratic allies, could backfire.

For now, Landrieu’s track record — and chairmanship — has helped her secure about a two-to-one edge over her main Republican foe Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) in oil and gas industry contributions.

“We’ve got a sitting senator whose been very supportive of the industry throughout her career,” said Durbin, head of America’s Natural Gas Alliance, an industry group that gave Landrieu $5,000. “That’s why we have continued to support her to this point. But it being Louisiana, regardless of how the election turns out we will have a strong supporter of the industry in the Senate.”

Some conservative groups don’t need any time to mull their own strategy. Ending Spending, a political action committee founded by former TD Ameritrade chief executive Joe Ricketts, has already booked $2.5 million of television and radio time to attack Landrieu and support whichever Republican gets into a runoff election, either Cassidy or the tea party candidate, retired Air Force colonel Rob Maness. It plans to spend more on newspaper and online advertising and on-the-ground forces.

“I have a hard time believing that supporting Sen. Landrieu makes much sense,” said Brian Baker, president of Ending Spending. “The most important vote she’ll cast is for Harrry Reid [as majority leader]. If you’re for oil and gas, better energy policy, keeping your doctor, more jobs, lower taxes, less debt, you can’t in good faith vote for Mary Landrieu.”

A lot of money has poured into the Landrieu race, but after the first round of voting a lot more could rain down on Louisiana voters when it matters most — before the December runoff.

“Why put a whole lot of money in now?” said a veteran Republican lobbyist on condition of anonymity to preserve his relationship with clients and lawmakers. “Why not wait and see what happens in the election and then you can address the question?”

So far, oil industry donations in the Louisiana Senate race have been divided. Landrieu, partly thanks to her committee chairmanship, continues to lure donors. Individuals and committees associated with the oil and gas industry donated $791,636 to Landrieu as of Sept. 9, according to figures compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics. Oil and gas contributors had given $373,370 to Cassidy. The level of oil industry donations — both for and against Landrieu — was up sharply from her race six years ago.

Exxon Mobil contributors were the second biggest source of money to Landrieu with $53,900 as of Sept. 9. Marathon and Pioneer were also among the biggest contributors. By contrast, Koch Industries is the third largest contributor to Landrieu’s foe Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) with $36,600.

The industry is also divided over whether it needs to have allies in both parties. Its three main allies among Senate Democrats are Landrieu, the endangered Sen. Mark Begich (D-Ak.), and Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, who might opt to run for the governorship of North Dakota in two years. “Wouldn’t it be good to have at least one Democrat on the inside fighting for us?” said former Louisiana senator John Breaux, a Democrat supporting Landrieu.

Several sources close to the industry said they have been in discussions in which some company officials said that moderate Democrats like Landrieu and Begich haven’t been very useful. Though several permits for LNG export terminals have been approved, neither lawmaker has convinced Reid to bring an energy bill to the Senate floor or to persuade Obama to take an action such as approving the Keystone XL or allowing crude oil exports.

But Durbin said “I’m more of the sense that we’re not going to see much get done regardless of what the election outcome is. That’s why I’d much rather focus on: Do we have enough members of both parties to put together a coalition to move things forward.”

Landrieu’s alignment with oil industry issues has cooled her relationship with some traditional Democratic groups. The League of Conservation Voters is backing Democrats in six tight Senate races — but it is not backing Landrieu.

“We’re focusing on six races where a climate action champion is running for reelection or for an open seat,” said Daniel J. Weiss, senior vice president for campaigns at the League.

Even though Louisiana, with its vast wetlands and proximity to the hurricane-prone Gulf of Mexico, is on the front line of climate change, Landrieu has voted for several measures that would have hamstrung government efforts to deal with climate change.

She voted for an amendment proposed by Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) that would have enacted funding cuts to federal agencies from curbing greenhouse gas emissions. She voted for a Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) amendment to the fiscal year 2014 budget resolution that would have prevented Congress from enacting legislation that would place a federal tax or fee on carbon emissions. And she voted for a Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) amendment to the Water Resources Development Act, which would prevent the Army Corps of Engineers and Environmental Protection Agency from restoring Clean Water Act protections to streams and wetlands.

But Weiss said that Landrieu has scored much better on LCV’s issues than Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who would become the chairman of the Energy and Natural Resources committee if the GOP won control of the Senate. Landrieu has voted along LCV lines 51 percent of the time over her entire time in Congress; Murkowski has sided with the LCV just 21 percent of the time during her career, Weiss said.

Landrieu votes in line with LCV included votes in favor of continuing military investments in advanced biofuels, a budget proposal that would have trimmed tax breaks for big oil companies, keeping mercury emission limits on power plants (which Murkowski opposed), and maintaining the National Endowment for the Oceans.

“I would posit that if the Republicans are in control of the Senate and Lisa Murkowski becomes chairman of Senate energy committiee, that would probably be very acceptable to the oil industry,” said Weiss.