Global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions -- the main contributor to global warming -- show no sign of abating and may reach record levels in 2010, according to a study led by the University of Exeter (UK).

The study, which also involved the University of East Anglia (UK) and other global institutions, is part of the annual carbon budget update by the Global Carbon Project.

In a paper published November 21 in Nature Geoscience, the authors found that despite the major financial crisis that hit the world last year, global CO 2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuel in 2009 were only 1.3 per cent below the record 2008 figures. This is less than half the drop predicted a year ago.

The global financial crisis severely affected western economies, leading to large reductions in CO 2 emissions. For example, UK emissions were 8.6% lower in 2009 than in 2008. Similar figures apply to USA, Japan, France, Germany, and most other industrialised nations.

However, emerging economies had a strong economic performance despite the financial crisis, and recorded substantial increases in CO 2 emissions (e.g. China +8 per cent, India +6.2 per cent).

Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, lead author of the research, said: "The 2009 drop in CO 2 emissions is less than half that anticipated a year ago. This is because the drop in world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was less than anticipated and the carbon intensity of world GDP, which is the amount of CO 2 released per unit of GDP, improved by only 0.7 per cent in 2009 -- well below its long-term average of 1.7% per year."

The poor improvements in carbon intensity were caused by an increased share of fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions produced by emerging economies with a relatively high carbon intensity, and an increasing reliance on coal.

The study projects that if economic growth proceeds as expected, global fossil fuel emissions will increase by more than 3% in 2010, approaching the high emissions growth rates observed through 2000 to 2008.

The study also found that global CO 2 emissions from deforestation have decreased by over 25% since 2000 compared to the 1990s, mainly because of reduced CO 2 emissions from tropical deforestation.