Besides justified fears of courting nationalist fury, one theory doing the rounds about why Serbia’s government is so reluctant to wrap up the Kosovo issue is the European elections.

Proponents of this theory say Belgrade hopes the elections in May will see nationalists and populists storming ahead, resulting in a parliament that is much friendlier to Serbia and a lot less sympathetic to Kosovo and its independence.

Europe’s two most prominent nationalist leaders, Matteo Salvini of Italy and Viktor Orban on Hungary have both encouraged speculation of a nationalist takeover in Strasbourg in recent days.

Orban – who last week week raised the spectre of the whole of Western Europe becoming “half-Islamisicised” – called the Italian Deputy Prime Minister his “hero”, after Salvini predicted that a nationalist Rome-Warsaw axis would replace the liberal Paris-Berlin axis in May.

“Poland and Italy will absolutely lead this European spring,” Salvini announced in Warsaw.

Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini with Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, 2018. Photo: EPA-EFE/DANIEL DAL ZENNARO

Orban himself has called on electors in may to “wave goodbye to liberal democracy and… the entire elite of ‘68”.

However, if Serbia is banking on anti-Muslim nationalist parties taking control of Strasbourg in May – and turning against mostly Muslim Kosovo – opinion polls and most experts suggest it will be disappointed.

While nationalists and populists will improve their showing in May, opinion polls also suggest that they cannot expect to win more than about 25 per cent of the 701 seats, falling from 751, if and when the UK leaves.

This would likely leave the parliament with no faction in overall control. It would certainly end the era in which the centre-right European People’s Party, EPP, the Social Democrats and the ALDE liberals have dominated affairs. But this shift will not put right-wing populists into power.

According to the UK Guardian, on December 27, the most likely outcome is just a muddle. “The fall of the [centre-left, centre-right] grand coalition will make the next European parliament more complex, with increased horse-trading and, possibly, as many as four parties needed to pass a law,” it opined.

Nationalists are expected to come first best in Italy, Poland and Hungary and, possibly even in France, where Marine Le Pen’s National Front could outpoll Emmanuel Macron’s weakened centrists.

But the political centre is not collapsing everywhere. According to the Irish Times, although the EPP and the Social Democrats stand to lose seats, they will still take most of the seats on offer in around 13 of the 27 countries, or 26, if the UK leaves in March.

Another problem, from the Serbian point of view, is that even if nationalists and populists do better than this, they remain disunited on foreign policy and on the all-important question of Russia – which, by extension, as Kosovo’s archenemy, tends to impact on stances towards Kosovo.

Salvini and Orban are both keen on Moscow – a plus from Serbia’s point of view. But Poland’s governing nationalists remain bitterly anti-Russian, which means Warsaw is unlikely to join any Russian-sponsored tilt against Kosovo. Nationalists in Croatia will be no help to Serbia at all, however well they do.

Italian nationalists are also unreliable allies of Serbia’s in the Balkans. Historically, they have acted as sponsors of Albania.

It was Italy, plus Austria, that fought hardest to put Albania on the map in 1912-13. And it was Italian dictator Mussolini who created a greater Albanian client state, at Serbia’s expense, during World War II.

A Carnegie Europe analysis, published on January 10, said Europe’s [possibly] victorious populists would struggle to formulate any coherent foreign policy after May, as most of them remain fixated on narrow domestic agendas.

“Populists in office have not brought about thus far a ‘revolution’ in their country’s foreign policy,” it noted.

“Hungary has not put into question its NATO membership. Italy has not vetoed the renewal of EU sanctions against Russia. And Poland seems to have reverted to a kind of America First policy.”

Another complicating factor for Serbia, as well as for Europe, is that right-wing nationalists are not the only force hoping to do better in May.

Far-left parties and environmentalists are also expecting to benefit. Their stances towards Kosovo and Serbia are even more unpredictable than those of the nationalists.

In short, MEPs proclaiming the need to defend “Christian” Europe and looking askance at Kosovo may be thicker on the ground after May than they are now. But they will not be numerous enough, or united enough, to make much of a difference to Europe’s overall policy in the Balkans – or towards Serbia and Kosovo.

Marcus Tanner is an editor of Balkan Insight and the author of “Albania’s Mountain Queen, Edith Durham and the Balkans” [Tauris].

The opinions expressed in the Comment section are those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of BIRN.