Rolling news and analysis from the General Election 2016 count

Eoin Burke-Kennedy

07:58



It’s going to be a long day, but we’re fully stocked with caffeine and snacks and raring to go. The Irish Times has correspondents in place at every counting centre, and they’ll be keeping us up to date on the tallies, the rumours and the reactions as events unfold. We’ll also be monitoring the tweets and posts of candidates and party activists to see which way the wind is blowing.



If you see or hear anything interesting that you think we should investigate or cover, you can contact me by email at



Half an hour after the polling station closed last night The Irish Times published an exit poll showing the parties’ vote shares to be: Fine Gael 26.1 per cent; Labour 7.8 per cent; Fianna Fáil 22.9 per cent; Sinn Féin 14.9; AAA-PBP 3.6 per cent; Greens 3.5 per cent; Social Democrats 2.8 per cent; Renua 2.6 per cent; and Independents 16.1 per cent.



This morning RTE’s exit poll showed support for Fine Gael at 24.8 per cent,

Labour is at 7.1 per cent, Fianna Fáil at 21.1 per cent and Sinn Féin at 16 per cent.

RTE’s poll shows Independents are at 11 per cent; AAA-PBP at 4.7 per cent; Social Democrats at 3.7 per cent; Green Party at 3.6 per cent, the Independent Alliance at 3 per cent, Renua is at 2.4 per cent and Others at 2.6 per cent.



Hello, and welcome to The Irish Times Election 2016 Count liveblog. I’m Hugh Linehan and I’ll be bringing you minute-by-minute coverage of everything that’s happening at the 40 constituency counts around the country as we find out who will be sitting in the 158 seats of the 32nd Dáil.It’s going to be a long day, but we’re fully stocked with caffeine and snacks and raring to go. The Irish Times has correspondents in place at every counting centre, and they’ll be keeping us up to date on the tallies, the rumours and the reactions as events unfold. We’ll also be monitoring the tweets and posts of candidates and party activists to see which way the wind is blowing.If you see or hear anything interesting that you think we should investigate or cover, you can contact me by email at hlinehan@irishtimes.com or on Twitter at @hlinehan.Half an hour after the polling station closed last night The Irish Times published an exit poll showing the parties’ vote shares to be: Fine Gael 26.1 per cent; Labour 7.8 per cent; Fianna Fáil 22.9 per cent; Sinn Féin 14.9; AAA-PBP 3.6 per cent; Greens 3.5 per cent; Social Democrats 2.8 per cent; Renua 2.6 per cent; and Independents 16.1 per cent.This morning RTE’s exit poll showed support for Fine Gael at 24.8 per cent,Labour is at 7.1 per cent, Fianna Fáil at 21.1 per cent and Sinn Féin at 16 per cent.RTE’s poll shows Independents are at 11 per cent; AAA-PBP at 4.7 per cent; Social Democrats at 3.7 per cent; Green Party at 3.6 per cent, the Independent Alliance at 3 per cent, Renua is at 2.4 per cent and Others at 2.6 per cent.

08:05



“The complexity of the single transferrable vote system makes it difficult to provide an accurate prediction of the number of seats which will be won by the various parties . At the last election Fine Gael got a seat bonus of 10 per cent. In the unlikely event of a similar seat bonus this time, it would end up with 56 seats. But a more likely seat bonus of 5 per cent would give the party 50 seats. The new Dáil has 158 seats, eight fewer than in the last one.

It is even more difficult to predict the number of seats the Labour Party will win if it takes just under 8 per cent of the vote. It is likely to be in the range of eight to 12.”







t:



“An inconclusive outcome does not even begin to describe what we are left with. The two biggest parties, for the first time, have failed to muster 50 per cent of popular support. And there is only a gap of 3.3 per cent among them,”



Here’s Stephen Collins’s analysis of the Irish Times’s exit poll. He says that:“The complexity of the single transferrable vote system makes it difficult to provide an accurate prediction of the number of seats which will be won by the various parties . At the last election Fine Gael got a seat bonus of 10 per cent. In the unlikely event of a similar seat bonus this time, it would end up with 56 seats. But a more likely seat bonus of 5 per cent would give the party 50 seats. The new Dáil has 158 seats, eight fewer than in the last one.It is even more difficult to predict the number of seats the Labour Party will win if it takes just under 8 per cent of the vote. It is likely to be in the range of eight to 12.” Harry McGee writes tha t:“An inconclusive outcome does not even begin to describe what we are left with. The two biggest parties, for the first time, have failed to muster 50 per cent of popular support. And there is only a gap of 3.3 per cent among them,”

08:07 Wonder why we have this peculiar voting system and how it works? Have a look at this video. ► VIDEO: The endless count, why voting is just the beginning #GE16 https://t.co/XOCheSNmQN pic.twitter.com/0nTqwmE7vg — Irish Times Video (@irishtimesvideo) February 27, 2016

08:17 FG gen sec Tom Curran says he expects the party to get between 44 and 47 seats. Yikes. #GE16 — Fiach Kelly (@fiachkelly) February 27, 2016

08:24

08:37 The count begins in 25 minutes now. So we haven't seen a single ballot paper yet. But looking at these two exit polls, and comparing them with polls carried out over the course of the campaign, something's got to give. Either there was a late swing against Fine Gael (if the exit polls are correct). or the other polls need to look at their methodology. Could this be the opposite of last year's UK election, where support for the incumbent party (the Conservatives) was underestimated?

08:40 Comparison between final polls and exit polls #ge16 pic.twitter.com/Ns6ZTWZ4Tl — Tom Louwerse (@tomlouwerse_en) February 27, 2016

08:49 .@AdrianKavanagh's estimates the RTÉ exit poll in terms of Dáil seats: FG 47, FF 37, SF 24, Lab 8, Inds and Others 42 #morningireland — Morning Ireland (@morningireland) February 27, 2016

08:53 "It is a massive fracturing of the electoral system, " Fine Gael's key strategist Mark Mortell tells Newstalk. "I hope we can get something together, otherwise we will be into another election very soon."

08:55 Almost time... #GE16 tally people outside the Hub, Kilkenny pic.twitter.com/R3AA63sPTt — Colm Keena (@cpkeena) February 27, 2016

09:04 Counting has now begun for the 2016 general election. Have a look at Michael O'Regan's indispensable armchair guide to the contests in all 40 constituencies.

09:18 Our parliamentary correspondent, Michael O'Regan, says Jerry O'Sullivan of Radio Kerry is predicting (based on exit polls): 2 FG, 2 Healy-Raes, 1 FF

09:24 Sean Haughey & Deirdre Heney pulling almost identical first prefs from box from St David's in Artane-both just behind Bruton & McGrath #ge16 — Jack Horgan-Jones (@JackHoJo) February 27, 2016

09:25 With inner city boxes open Murphy & Andrews will be elected early. Fight for last 2: Flynn, Humphreys , Ryan, O'Call, Creighton #ge16 #dubbs — Kevin Humphreys (@KHumphreysTD) February 27, 2016

09:30 Sarah Bardon is seeing some strange trends emerging in Dublin West: "Some giving number 1 to Chambers and 2 to Varadkar and nothing else."



09:32 Peter Murtagh reports counting has begun in Mayo:



'Opening of ballot boxes begun on the dot of 9am. Checking of the first ballots actually began some minutes before when returning officer Fintan Murphy explained that envelopes of postal votes would be opened first and checked.



Inside Castlebar’s TF Royal Theater count center some 70 election officials then began emptying the contents of ballot boxes onto tables, two polling areas at a time. Each ballot paper is being opened now and placed in a pile for later sorting before actual counting begins.



Leaning over barrier rails watching intently are tally men and women, party and candidate enthusiasts who get a millisecond glance at each paper as it is opened and record the preference shown. In that way, early predictions – usually accurate – emerge from the tally.



Members of the public and other disinterested observers, are also present, as are a number of gardai.



Mr Murphy appealed for quiet during the count – both for his officials and the tally people, noting that the one thing that was impossible was for a person to count and talk at the same time.



He said he hoped for a first count before midnight.



Mayo is political base of the Taoiseach Enda Kenny and traditionally a strong Fine Gael constituency. In the 2011 general election it was a five seat constituency in which some 75,000 people voted giving a turnout of 74 per cent.



The constituency now is set to return four TDs to the incoming Dail. There are 16 candidates, including four outgoing TDs -- Mr Kenny, and Fine Gael colleagues Michael Ring and Michelle Mulhern, plus Dara Calleary of Fianna Fail, -- as well as candidates from Sinn Fein, he Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit, Renua, the Greey Party and a number of independents.'





09:35 Kathryn Hayes reports from Limerick:

'Proceedings got off to a sombre staff at the count centre in Limerick on Saturday when council officials, count staff tally people and members of the public stood to observe a minutes silence for the late Fianna Fáil Councillor Joe Crowley (53) who collapsed and died suddenly while canvassing for Willie O'Dea.



Hundreds of boxes were transported to the University Arena which is located on the grounds of UL overnight and are being opened one by one to allow the tally people to carry out their tallies.



A rough final tally is expected in the next few hours with the first official count result for the Limerick city expected late afternoon.



A total of 21 candidates have run for election in Limerick - ten in the Limerick city constituency where there are four seats to be filed, and eleven in the Limerick constituency, the rural part of the constituency, where there are three seats.



There will be huge focus in Limerick city on whether or not Labour Minister Jan O'Sullivan will retain her seat. Fine Gael's Kieran O'Donnell is a also expected to face a battle to hold onto his seat, but is hoping to benefit from transfers from Finance Minister MIchael Noonan.



Sinn Fein's Maurice Quinlivan is expected to take the first seat in the city for his party.



In the other Limerick constituency all eyes will be on Independent candidate Emmet O'Brien, who has been widely tipped to take the third seat, which Fine Gael's Tom Neville was hoping to win following the retirement of his father former FG deputy Dan Neville.'





09:42 #GE16 100 years ago, people died so we could behave like this. pic.twitter.com/asIYPDvVDs — PeterMurtagh (@PeterMurtagh) February 27, 2016

09:45 Ruadhan Mac Cormaic reports from Meath East: "FF's Thomas Byrne looking particularly strong on early, partial tallies".

09:47 A lot of eyes will be focused on Dublin West. Sarah Bardon says very early tallies (10 per cent) show Labour leader Joan Burton on 18 per cent, neck and neck with Leo Varadkar. if that trend continues, she'll probably hold on.

09:49 FF tally 17 boxes #dunl inc Blackrock, Shankhill FF 18.58%;FG 36.7;Lab 9.14;G 5.39;AAAPBP 15.17;SF 6.48;Ind 5.55;Renua 2.69;DDI 0.3 #ge16 — mary minihan (@minihanmary) February 27, 2016

09:51 Elderly friend from very leafy part of Donnybrook voted #SF no1 because "that Chris Andrews is a nice boy & I know his mother". #GE16 — Flor Mac Carthy (@florNEWS) February 27, 2016

09:54 Radio Kerry reporting Labour tallies: Healy-Raes 34.5%, FG 19.1, FF 16.7, Lab & SF 6.6 each, Greens 1.1, AAA/PBP 1, Renua 0.9

09:56 With 14 % of boxes in Dublin West open Burton is on 18%, Varadkar at 19%, Chambers 18% Coppinger at 13%, Donnelly at 11%.

10:00 Adrian Kavanagh on RTE points out that those early figures from Dublin West are from areas one would expect to be strong for Burton, so it remains to be seen how she does in other parts of the constituency.

10:05 last 2 seats between P Donohoe/ Christy Burke/ Maureen O'Sullivan/ Garry Gannon. Looking bad for Labour's Joe Costello — Michael Brennan (@obraonain) February 27, 2016

10:08 ► VIDEO: Let the fun begin: election boxes opened at Dublin count centre #GE16 https://t.co/ZB5IjrxIDE pic.twitter.com/cbmKRP0Rh2 — Irish Times Video (@irishtimesvideo) February 27, 2016



10:11 Mary Minihan: "Richard Boyd Barrett 'running away with it' in Monkstown Farm, Dun Laoghaire, say Fine Gael tallymen, 'as would be expected.'"

10:13 Ruadhan Mac Cormaic: Partial Meath East tally suggests FF's Byrne to top poll, followed by 1 of the 2 FG cands. Final seat unclear - most likely btwn SF, FG

10:16 V early tally of votes in Tipperary (only a handful of boxes) shows FF 24pc, FG 20pc, Labour 5pc, SF 8pc, Greens 1pc and Others 41p. — Conor Kane (@Conorkane1974) February 27, 2016



10:21 Tim O'Brien in Wexford: "Fianna Fáil tally says Mick Wallace not doing 'as well as expected'. But warns it's V. Early. Not all boxes opened."

10:23 Elaine Edwards at the Meath West count in Trim says, with 54 of 117 boxes open. SF’s Toibin is on 27%, FF’s Cassells on 25%, junior FG minister Damien English on 20%

10:32 Tallies from Louth indicate Sinn Fein will take two seats, with Gerry Adams bringing in running mate Imelda Munster. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are predicted to take one seat each, with Fine Gael fighting it out with Labour's Ged Nash for the final seat.

10:35 Conor Pope reports that early tallies in Dublin Fingal put Fine Gael's James Reilly on just 7 per cent, suggesting he could be a big ministerial casualty. The usual health warnings apply, of course.

10:37 The story so far in #dunl in #GE16 . Follow @ElectionNT for more updates throughout the day. pic.twitter.com/x8Y13g6Sdh — Kieran Cuddihy (@kierancuddihy) February 27, 2016



10:44 Fiach Kelly at the RDS has been told by Sinn Fein's Dessie Ellis that he and Roisin Shortall will take the first two seats in Dublin North-West, with FG, FF and the second SF candidate competing for the third.

10:46 Rachel Flaherty has the latest tallies from Tipperary. She says Mattie McGrath has taken the lead, just 1% ahead of Seamus Healy, followed by Tom Hayes and Alan Kelly. I'm presuming Lowryland remains to be explored.

10:53 Indications from the Dublin Rathdown three-seater are that Labour minister Alex White will lose his seat, independent Shane Ross will top the poll, and Fine Gael's Alan Shatter and Josepha Madigan will also be elected.

10:58 Dessie Ellis reckons John Lyons out of running in #dubnw but consensus is it's a four way scrap for last seat w him still in it. #ge16 — Jack Horgan-Jones (@JackHoJo) February 27, 2016

11:03 Going to be down to transfers. Who goes first will play big . #DubC https://t.co/kYS8g5oudS — Holly Furlong (@HollyFur) February 27, 2016

11:06 Ruadhán Mac Cormaic reports:



'The latest tally from the Meath East three-seater, based on 30 per cent of boxes, shows Thomas Byrne of Fianna Fáil clearly in front at 28 per cent, followed by Fine Gael's Regina Doherty (20 per cent) and Helen McEntee (16 per cent). Sinn Féin's Darren O'Rourke is on 14 per cent and could be in with a chance of the final seat. The sitting Labour TD, Dominic Hannigan, is at 7 per cent.



On those figures, Byrne looks likely to come close to a quota on the first count. "He's walking away with it," as one Fine Gael tallyman put it. McEntee or Doherty will take the second seat, with the battle for the final seat coming down to a contest between O'Rourke of Sinn Féin and the second FG candidate. '





11:07 Mark Hilliard reports: 'Ged Nash of Labour looks to be in a dogfight for the fifth Louth seat with Fine Gael's Peter Fitzpatrick, also a sitting TD.



Party Support

With one third of the boxes counted in Louth, things are shaping up well for Sinn Fein who appear almost certain to claim two seats.

The party have captured an estimated 28 per cent of first preference votes, followed by Fine Gael on 19.8 per cent and Fianna Fail on 17.1 per cent.

Non-party votes are accounting for 10.5 per cent of votes, according to tallies, with Labour staggering on 9.8 per cent. '





11:14 Dan Griffin reports: 'In Galway East, the tallies show Independent Sean Canney on 21.64 per cent with 4,810 votes; Fine Gael candidates Paul Connaughton Jr on 15.59 per cent with 3,467 and Ciarán Cannon on 3,378. Fianna Fáil candidate Anne Rabbitte is on 14.8 per cent with 3,299 votes and Colm Keaveney is on 11.3 per cent with 2,512 votes. The tally is incomplete but observers here expect Canney, Connaughton and Rabbitte to take the three seats. This would see TDs Cannon and Keaveney losing out.'

11:17 #ge16: Offaly: Tallies indicate strong performance by Fianna Fáil and Independents https://t.co/mdDhy0coEs — Irish Times Politics (@IrishTimesPol) February 27, 2016

11:18 This just in from Peter Murtagh in Castlebar: 'Early tallies in Castlebar, Co Mayo, suggest that the Taoiseach Enda Kenny is polling well in his own constituency heartland, as is Fianna Fail’s out-going TD for the county, Dara Calleary.



With ballot boxes for Castlebar, the county town, and Ballina in north Mayo, the only ones opened so far in the sprawling four-seat Mayo constituency, and with actual counting of votes yet to take place, tallymen and women watching the process of papers being opened, smoothed flat and stacked, giving them a chance to see first preferences, say that the Taoiseach is safe – whatever about the government he leads.



A Fianna Fail tot for Castlebar/Ballina shows Mr Kenny polling 2,362 first preference votes or 26 per cent of the boxes. In the 2011 election, the Taoiseach polled 2,708, or 30 per cent, by comparison.



Mr Calleary is polling 1,840 first preferences, or 21 per cent of the vote, compared to his 2011 showing of 1,434 first preferences or 16 per cent.



There is a reasonable showing too for Fine Gael’s Michelle Mulhern, who is Ballina-based. She is tallied at 1,451 first preferences, or 16 per cent; as against 2,217 first preferences for 2011, or 25 per cent of the vote in that election. To retain her seat in a reduced constituency, she will need to poll equally outside her personal heartland.



Westport-based Michael Ring is accorded the small vote of just 482 first preferences but then he will not be expecting many votes in Mr Kenny’s citidal of Castlebar. In the 2011 poll, Mr Ring took just 452 first preferences in the town and so is unlikely to be worried at this stage of the tally.



Mr Ring will be expecting to do best in Westport and the surrounding areas, particularly south and west of the town, as he usually does.



Fianna Fail’s Lisa Chambers, a Castlebar-based barrister and councillor, has polled 964 first preferences in the tally, or 11 per cent of the vote. Her chances of being in with a shout for the fourth seat will depend very much how she polls elsewhere in the county.



Of the other parties and independents, Sinn Fein in Castlebar/Ballina has taken 607 first preference votes, according to the Fianna Fail tally, or 7 per cent of the vote. While this is an improvement on their 2011 showing (159 first preferences and 2 per cent) it would seem improbable that the the party will take a Mayo seat – albiet on a small sample that is also just a tally.



Independents and others are said to be taking 14 per cent of the vote in the two towns, compared to 19 per cent in 2011.'







11:24 Fianna Fail tallypeople in Dun Laoghaire describe party performance as disappointing #ge16 @irishTimes #dunl — mary minihan (@minihanmary) February 27, 2016



11:28 I don't think anyone was predicting that Fianna Fail would have any chance of surpassing Fine Gael in the number of seats won, but remarkably Mark Mortell, FG's key strategist, has just acknowledged on RTE that it's a possibility, although he doesn't think it will happen.

11:32 Kitty Holland reports Fine Gael tallies show people Before Profit's Gino Kenny taking the fourth seat in Dublin Mid-West. Sinn Fein's Eoin O'Broin is tipped to pass the quota on the first count.

11:34 If the idle gossip in #DubF count centre during the tea break is to be believed, James Reilly is a gonner. Time will tell, wha? #GE16 — Conor Pope (@conor_pope) February 27, 2016



11:37 Fianna Fail sources claiming it is "highly likely" the party could be the largest party in next Dail. @IrishTimes #ge16 — Sarah Bardon (@SarahBardon) February 27, 2016



11:40 Completed tally from #dubmw has Eoin O'Broin SF, Frances Fitzgerald FG, John Curran FF, Gino Kenny PBP/AAA elected pic.twitter.com/XQk5HnxIBM — Kitty Holland (@KittyHollandIT) February 27, 2016



11:47 Barry Roche reports: 'With 25 per cent of boxes tallied, Anti-Austerity Alliance candidate, Cllr Mick Barry looks set to take a seat in Cork North Central with Ministers of State, Kathleen Lynch of Labour and Dara Murphy fighting it out with Sinn Féin for the final seat.

According to the tallies, Fianna Fáil’s Billy Kelleher is on course to hold his seat while sitting Sinn Féin TD Jonathan O’Brien also on course to hold his seat with Barry set to finally make it to Dáil Éireann after a number of unsuccessful attempts.



Murphy is leading from the second placed Sinn Féin candidate, Cllr Thomas Gould with Lynch in third place in this trio but there is a heavy preponderance of boxes from the North East ward among the boxes opened which would favour Murphy.

Cllr Ted Tynan of the Workers Party is also polling respectably as is Fine Gael’s second candidate Julie O’Leary but party strategists are predicting a long night in Cork City Hall before the destination of the last seat is decided.

Cork North Central was over represented in the last Dáil so the Constituency Commission recommended the transfer of 17,307 voters in Bishopstown, Glasheen and Gilabbey from Cork South Central and the transfer of 5,048 from around Kilshannig in the county to Cork North West.

Some 53 per cent of the electorate now live in the county part of the constituency which is primarily rural but home to thousands of commuters who live in villages all the way from Dripsey in the west to Cloghroe, Tower, Blarney, Grenagh, Whitechurch and Watergrasshill and on to Glanmire in the east. Within the city boundary, the constituency contains numerous working class communities from Knocknaheeney across Gurranabraher, Farranree and Churchfield down into Blackpool and on to Ballyvolane and Mayfield with middle class voters more prevalent in Sunday’s Well and Montenotte.'

11:50 Gerry Moriarty reports from Letterkenny on tallies coming in from boxes at the northern end of the Donegal constituency - the picture will change considearbly later, I think: 'With more than a third of the Donegal boxes open tally people had outgoing Fianna Fáil TD Charlie McConalogue polling very strongly in his native Inishowen.

They reckoned that Mr McConalogue was standing on a vote of close to 9,000 after all the Inishowen boxes and some of the Letterkenny boxes were opened this morning.

With 83 of the 246 boxes opened it was estimated by Sinn Féin tally people that Mr McConalogue was on 8,786 votes followed by outgoing Sinn Féin TD Padraig Mac Lochlainn on 4,069.'

11:57 Kevin Humphreys of Labour predicted he'd be in a six-way dogfight for the last three seats in Dublin Bay South when he joined me for a podcast this week. Looks as if he was absolutely right. Murphy of Fine Gael looks certain to be elected, but the other three seats will be fought out between O'Callaghan (FF), Andrews (SF), Creighton (Renua), O'Connell (FG), Ryan (Green) and Humphreys (Labour). Expect this one to run and run...

12:01 #DubC: Paschal Donohoe is picking up steam. Gannon, Burke leading the charge for third? pic.twitter.com/OFMAab00Gm — Richard Chambers (@newschambers) February 27, 2016



12:02 Dan Griffin reports: 'With 85 per cent of the boxes tallied in Galway East it appears outgoing Fine Gael TDs Ciaran Cannon and Paul Connaughton Jr will have to fight it out for a single seat with transfers from Labour's Lorraine Higgins likely to make the difference.



Independent Sean Canney commands a strong lead with 19.4 per cent, or 7,108 votes, and seems assured of a seat. Fianna Fáil's Anne Rabbitte on 14.3 per cent will likely hold off outgoing TD Colm Keaveney on 12.1 per cent. Cannon has 15.6 per cent while Connaughton has 14.2 per cent.



The party breakdown is: FG 29.8 per cent; Lab 10.3 per cent; FF 26.4 per cent; SF 5.9 per cent and Others 27.5 per cent.'





12:07 Sarah Bardon in Dublin West tells us 100 per cent tallies show Joan Burton is on 15.4 per cent, Jack Chambers is on 16.5 per cent, Ruth Coppinger is on 15.4 per cent, Paul Donnelly is at 14.4 per cent and Leo Varadkar is on 19.6 per cent.

This shows the Tanaiste and Ms Coppinger are neck in neck in the polls.





12:14 Among the sitting TDs who definitely won't be returning to the Dail: Renua's Terence Flanagan (Dublin Bay North); Labour's Eric Byrne (Dublin South-Central) and independent Peter Mathews (Dublin Rathdown).

12:19 Fiona Gartland reports: 'Final tallies are not yet in for Kildare North, but indications are Social Democrat Catherine Murphy will top the poll, with 23 per cent of first preferences. Bernard Durkan (Fine Gael) has 15.6 per cent, James Lawless, Fianna Fail, 17.4 per cent, with his running mate Frank O’Rourke at 10.8 per cent.

Outgoing Labour party TD, Emmet Stagg, is looking vulnerable at 7.7 per cent.'

12:26 Ruadhán Mac Cormaic reports:



'It's now almost certain that Labour's Dominic Hannigan will lose his seat in Meath East, where Thomas Byrne of Fianna Fáil is set to top the poll and return to the Dáil after a five-year absence.



The latest tally from the three-seater, based on 65 per cent of boxes, shows Byrne clearly in front at 28 per cent. Behind him, the two Fine Gael candidates - Regina Doherty and Helen McEntee - are neck-and-neck on 18 per cent.



Sinn Féin's Darren O'Rourke is on 14 per cent and could be in with a chance of the final seat. Hannigan is trailing at 6 per cent.



On those figures, Byrne looks likely to come close to a quota on the first count. "He's walking away with it," as one Fine Gael tallyman put it. McEntee or Doherty will take the second seat, with the battle for the final seat coming down to a contest between O'Rourke of Sinn Féin and the second FG candidate.'





12:44 Since the polls closed yesterday there have been over 47K #GE16 Tweets sent https://t.co/Sfy1OYlBk3 pic.twitter.com/FcevNhrdta — Twitter Dublin (@TwitterDublin) February 27, 2016



12:46 Our political correspondent Fiach Kelly's view: 'The dance of the big two has already started. On RTÉ radio in the past while, Mark Mortell - one of Enda Kenny's key strategists - softened the Fine Gael position somewhat on a deal with Fianna Fáil.

Mortell effectively said the two parties may have to reconsider their pre-election positions that they would not countenance any sort of government arrangement.

Fianna Fáil people have their tails up, however, and are talking up their chances of actually wining more seats that Fine Gael. They argue that they will be more transfer friendly that Fine Gael but such claims should be taken with a pinch of salt.'





12:54 Based on tally pattern coming in so far, FF seem to doing better than exit poll suggested. Could they get close to FG seat number? #GE16 — Adrian Kavanagh (@AdrianKavanagh) February 27, 2016



12:59 Fiach Kelly writes:

'Sinn Féin emerging as the largest Opposition party would be “hugely significant” and the party is better organised than ever before, Northern Ireland deputy first minister Martin McGuinness has said.

Speaking the Dublin city count centre at the RDS in Ballsbridge, Mr McGuinness said attention is now turning to how close Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in terms of Dáil seats.

“People’s thoughts are now turning to how a government is going to be formed and I think given what is likely to develop today and tomorrow,” he said.

“It’s going to be very interesting to see how a government can be formed on the other side of this. Sinn Féin can only form a government if there is enough people of like mind to form a government. It is far too early to say. We don’t know what the results will bring.”

“Can Fine Gael form a government? Can Fianna Fáil form a government. Our position has been made clear that we are not interested in going int government with either of them.”

He said people Sinn Féin is now the biggest player on the left, and that other left wing TDs and parties needed to reflect on how best to achieve their goals.

A failure of the left to come together would leave Irish people “to the mercy of two right wing political parties”, he said.

When asked if Sinn Féin could become the largest Opposition party if Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael form a government, Mr McGuinness said: “If that did happen, if that did come to pass, then obviously Sinn Féin would be the largest opposition party and that would be hugely significant.

There is no point in getting speculation at this stage.

“The significance for us in Sinn Féin is that we are better organised in every one of Ireland’s 32 counties than we have ever been.

This has been a hugely successful election for Sinn Féin. We have increased our percentage vote. We are going to increase our number of seats.”'





13:04 It's over! June 28, 1922 - Feb. 27, 2016. The Civil War has finally ended with both sides having no idea what they disagreed about. — Des Bishop 毕瀚生 (@Desbishop) February 27, 2016



13:08 Conor Pope reports from Dublin Fingal: 'With 77 per cent of the ballot boxes tallied in Dublin Fingal, Minister for Children James Reilly looks like he is going to be in a real dog fight with Sinn Fein’s Louise O’Reilly to hold on to his seat.



Independent socialist Clare Daly and Fianna Fáil senator Darragh O’Brien are both polling very strongly in the five-seater with O’Brien looking likely to top the poll



With nearly 80 per cent of the tally now completed, O’Brien has 18 per cent of the first preferences while Daly has 16 per cent.



Fine Gael’s Alan Farrell is in third place at this relatively early stage with 12 per cent of the vote while Labour’s Brendan Ryan has won 10 per cent of the first preferences.



Sinn Fein’s Louise O’Reilly now has 9 per cent of the vote while Dr Reilly is currently on 8 per cent having narrowed the gap slightly in the last hour.



Both Lorraine Clifford Lee of Fianna Fail and Joe O’Brien of the Green Party are on 5 per cent, a percentage point ahead of Terry Kelleher with the AAA-PBP. Gerry Molloy of Renua is also on 4 per cent as is Daly’s running mate Barry Martin.



While none of the parties are willing to call it at this early stage, much of the gossip around the National Show Centre is that the minister is likely to be one of the biggest casualties of the election for Fine Gael.



“I can’t see how he can hang on to his seat at this stage,” one tally man told The Irish Times.'





13:11 This is one of the constituencies where FF must be regretting not running two candidates. Final tally from #lkcy #GE16 pic.twitter.com/7Py9mNLkAS — Limerick Leader (@Limerick_Leader) February 27, 2016



13:17 Tim O’Brien reports: 'With 80 percent of the boxes tallied in

Wexford James Browne of Fianna Fail is expected to head the poll, but Fine Gael are expected to return two TDs, Michael D’Arcy and Paul Kehoe. Fianna Fail tallypeople say that party’s bid to take two seats is still on the cards with a strong performance by Malcolm Byrne, but it looks like the two parties will share just three seats between them. For the remaining two seats Labour’s Brendan Howlin is just 25 votes ahead of Independent Michael Wallace, with Wallace less than 1,000 votes ahead of Sinn Fein’s Johnny Mythen. Pollsters say an official result for the first count is not expected until late afternoon. With 80 percent of the boxes open is, according to tallies: James Browne… (FF) 8784 Michael D’Arcy (FG) 7247 Paul Kehoe (FG) (FG) 7195 Brendan Howlin (Lab) 6649 Michael Wallace (Ind) 6623 Johnny Mythen (SF) 5786 Malcolm Byrne (FF) 5710 Pollsters prediction is: FG2; FF1; Lab1; Ind 1.'

13:25 Pithy. And apparently true. Fine Gael's message appears to have worked very well in middle class Southside Dublin and absolutely nowhere else. #ge16 — Karl Brophy (@KarlBrophy) February 27, 2016



13:31 Dublin Rathdown could get interesting. Shane Ross will top the poll, FG's Josepha Madigan should take the second seat. It looks like Labour minister Alex White is gone and the big question is whether the Greens' Catherine Martin can unseat former minister for justice Alan Shatter. Rathdown final tally. Shane Ross expected to be just a handful short of the quota on first count #ge16 pic.twitter.com/h1D6IESjUy — Olivia Kelly (@OliviaKellyIT) February 27, 2016



13:38 Emmet Stagg in trouble in Kildare North. He was seen as one of Labour's bankers in a worst-case scenario. Kildare North final tally:Murphy SD 22.5%, Durkan FG12.5%, Lawless FF 15.4%, O’Rourke FF 13%, Lawlor FG 11%, Stagg Lab 8.4% #ge16 #ken — Fiona GartlandIT (@FionaGartland) February 27, 2016



13:41 ► VIDEO: @minihanmary reports from Dún Laoghaire, where the results are bucking the nationa… https://t.co/jLhxNdqx5n pic.twitter.com/STkwSkNu14 — Irish Times Video (@irishtimesvideo) February 27, 2016



13:42 Final tally Ros-Gal: Naughten (Ind)13307, Fitzmaurice(Ind) 9479, Murphy(FF) 6693, Hopkins (FG) 6637, Kirrane (SF) 2997. Quota 11069. #GE16 — Patsy McGarry (@PatsyMcGarryIT) February 27, 2016



13:48 Ruadhán Mac Cormaic tells us Fine Gael have taken some encouragement from the final tallies in Meath East, which show they are still in with a chance of retaining their two seats.



With the completed tallies showing him at 26 per cent, it's almost certain that Thomas Byrne of Fianna Fáil will top the poll. Labour's Dominic Hannigan, who came first in the constituency in 2011, is polling at just 6 per cent and looks likely to lose out.



Little separates the two Fine Gael incumbents, with Helen McEntee at 18 per cent and her party colleague Regina Doherty just one percentage point behind on 17 per cent. That means Fine Gael is probably assured of one seat and could win two unless Sinn Féin's Darren O'Rourke, at 14 per cent according to the tallies, does well enough on transfers to overtake McEntee or Doherty.





13:51 Frances Fitzgerald just arrived at Citywest, expecting to be declared elected in next 40 minutes pic.twitter.com/bg0BlHuPYD — Kitty Holland (@KittyHollandIT) February 27, 2016



13:54 'The opinion polls nor the political commentariat didn’t catch the extent of the demise of the Government parties, or the upsurge in Fianna Fáil numbers, until very very late.' Read Harry McGee's analysis here.

14:11 I'm going to hand over the reins now to my colleague Eoin Burke-Kennedy, and head across the Irish Times newsroom to our audio studio, where I'll be presenting an election special podcast with some of my colleagues from The Irish Times political staff. That should be up on irishtimes.com and iTunes by half past three, so keep an eye out for it. Thanks for reading!

14:17 My head's abuzz with the possibility of FF/FG coalition - the ramifications...I know, I know cart before the horse and all that and we've haven't even had the first count yet. Anyway I'll be here to shepherd you through the first counts. Dublin Rathdown is scheduled to declare in about 15 mins (2.30pm) with Shane Ross of the Independent Alliance expected to top the poll.

14:22 Mark Hilliard on the final Louth tally:



Fianna Fail’s Declan Breathnach has finished just behind Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams in the final first preference tallies of almost 99 per cent of votes.

With those figures landing just after 2pm, a first official count is not anticipated until about 5pm. It is a strong performance indicator for Breathnach, a Dundalk-based former school principal, who could not get over the line in 2011.

The tallies put Adams, who has led the charge of first preference votes throughout the day, on 15.6 per cent, with Breathnach on 13.6 per cent.

Imelda Munster remains on track to become the county’s first female TD with 13 per cent. She will take a second seat for Sinn Fein. That leaves things tight at the bottom with transfers expected to play an important role in deciding who of Fine Gael’s Fergus O’Dowd (10.2 per cent), party colleague Peter Fitzpatrick (9.4 per cent) and Labour’s Ged Nash (7.3 per cent) takes a seat in the next Dail.





14:25 Interesting - 1% of those polled in the RTE exit poll could not remember who they had given their first preference to #ge16 #rtenews — Martina Fitzgerald (@MartinaFitzg) February 27, 2016

14:28 Good news! Count centre staff in #wicklow find Arklow woman's ring after it fell into ballot box yesterday #GE16 pic.twitter.com/24FeWCvonq — carlobrien (@carlobrien) February 27, 2016

14:33 Olivia Kelly reports:



Dublin Rathdown poll-topper in waiting Shane Ross has just hit the count centre predicting the Independent Alliance will get all four of its TDs re-elected with the addition of Kevin Boxer Moran and Sean Canney. A Fine Gael/Fianna Fail coalition would be a “great pity” he said. “It would be a very, very bad development. It would be a very conservative Government, it wouldn’t have a radical bone in its body If that happened. I think it would also work too well because they get on like a house on fire.”

14:36 Carl O'Brien reports from Greystones, Co Wicklow:



Social Democrat TD Stephen Donnelly is maintaining his lead at the top of the poll in Wicklow with almost 22 per cent, based on tallies of two-thirds of the votes. Labour TD Anne Ferris looks to be in major trouble, polling just 4 per cent so far.



Tallies from 120 boxes across the five-seat constituency show Fine Gael TD and Minister for State Simon Harris in second place with 17 per cent. He is followed closely by Sinn Fein candidate John Brady (15 per cent), and Renua and former Fine Gael TD Billy Timmins (12 per cent).



Fianna Fail's Pat Casey is next (9 per cent), followed by Fine Gael candidate Andrew Doyle TD (8 per cent). Fianna Fail's Jennifer Cuffe, former Independent TD Joe Behan, Fine Gael's Avril Cronin and Labour TD Anne Ferris are on tied on about 4 per cent.



They are followed by the Green Party's Steven Matthews and Sharon Briggs of Anti-Austerity Alliance People Before Profit (both 2 per cent). These tallies indicate Mr Donnelly is set to top the poll following a major surge in his vote over 2011 when he narrowly won the final seat here.



Fine Gael, which won three seats in 2011, looks set to regain at least one seat with Simon Harris's polling well. Sinn Fein is confident of taking its first seat in the constituency since the 1920s.



There is likely to be a tight battle for final two seats between Fine Gael TD Andrew Doyle, Fianna Fail's Pat Casey and Renua's deputy leader Billy Timmins. Fianna Fail has traditionally held a seat here, but it was left without a TD when Former TD Dick Roche lost his seat in 2011 as the party's vote plummeted nationally.





14:44 Dublin Bay North is living up to its billing as "the constituency of death". It's going to be a very long count. pic.twitter.com/inItzzz0pY — Senator Averil Power (@averilpower) February 27, 2016

14:46 First count in Galway East #galwayeast #GE16 pic.twitter.com/sHAlhZaVlG — Anna Heverin (@annaheverin) February 27, 2016 Ok, so we've had the first official count of the General Election 2016. Galway East wins race.

14:49

Erin McGuire reports:



According to the final tally, without postal votes, Fianna Fail's Robert Troy is topping the poll in Longford-Westmeath. Troy could be elected on the first count.



Independent Kevin "Boxer" Moran is coming in second in the tally of first preference votes, followed by Fine Gael's Peter Burke and Sinn Fein's Paul Hogan.





14:54 Dan Griffin reports: The first official count in Galway East is:



Electorate: 68432

Total poll: 45617

Spoiled: 379

Quota: 11310

Total valid poll: 45238



Seán Canney (IND):8447

Ciarán Cannon (FG): 7123

Paul Connaughton (FG): 6474

Michael Fahy (IND): 2358

Lorraine Higgins (LAB): 4531

Colm Keaveney (FF): 5436

Aengus Melia (DDI): 489

Mairead Ni Chroinin (GP): 769

Anne Rabbitte (FF): 6928

Annemarie Roche (SF): 2683



As expected Independent candidate Seán Canney has topped the poll in Galway East with 8,447 first preference votes. He was followed by outgoing Fine Gael TD Ciarán Cannaon who received 7,123 votes and will be hoping to see off party colleague Paul Connaughton for what will be the party's only seat in the constituency. A strong showing from Fianna Fáil newcomer Anne Rabbitte of 6,928 votes should see her through in later counts but as no candiates have reached the quota of 11,310 on the first count, no one has been elected yet. Aengus Melia of Direct Democracy Ireland and Green Party candidate Mairead Ni Chroinin have been eliminated.





14:59 Shane Ross has arrived at the count centre. He looks set to top the poll in Dublin-Rathdown #ge16 #dubrathdown pic.twitter.com/YWlEnPAOVD — Neil Doherty (@neilgdoherty) February 27, 2016

15:01

Aine McMhaon reports:



The first count has gotten underway in Cavan Monaghan count centre where it looks like there's going to be two Fianna Fail seats, one Sinn Fein and one Fine Gael.



Based on the tallies the quota is set to be 11,882.



The final tallies show Minister for Arts and Heritage, and sitting Fine Gael TD Heather Humphreys leads the first preference tallies with 12,306 (21%).



Sitting Sinn Fein TD Caoimhghin O Caolain received 9,911 (17%) first preference votes while sitting Fianna Fail TD Brendan Smith has 8,739 (15%).



Sitting Fine Gael TD Joe O'Reilly has 6,565 first preference votes (11%) followed by Fianna Fail's Niamh Smyth who has 6,188 (11%).



Sinn Fein Senator Kathryn Reilly has 6,078 (10%) while former Fine Gael, now Independent TD Sean Conlan looks set to lose his seat with 1,634 (2.8%).





15:02 Rathdown final tally. Shane Ross expected to be just a handful short of the quota on first count pic.twitter.com/kEX9fn1RVQ — Olivia Kelly (@OliviaKellyIT) February 27, 2016

15:09 Lowry expected to top poll in tight contest: Rachel Flaherty reports: Michael Lowry looks set to keep his seat in Co Tipperary, according to the final first preference tally results. However, it is likely to be a close battle between the other candidates as the results predict narrow margins of votes between six candidates. The figures released just after 2.30pm showed the Independent TD Lowry had 13,036 votes (18 per cent) votes tallied. The projected quota based on the tally is 12,922. Tally results suggest more than 40 per cent of the voters have supported Independents. Mattie McGrath is just shy of the quota at 11,252 (15 per cent) and Seamus Healy at 10 per cent with 7, 735 votes. It is a tight contest in the five seat constituency with six candidates tallying between 8-10 per cent of the vote. Labour’s Alan Kelly had 7,475 (10 per cent) of the votes tallied, Fine Gael’s Tom Hayes was at 6063 (8 per cent), while his running mate Noel Coonan was on 6 per cent. The three Fianna Fail candidates: Jackie Cahill, Michael Smith and Siobhan Ambrose polled at 7,318 (10 per cent), 6,609 (9 per cent), 10 per cent and 4,441 (6 per cent) respectively. Seamus Morris of Sinn Fein polled at 8 per cent.

15:11 Sarah Bardon reports:



Sinn Fein candidate Paul Donnelly insisted he is still in the race for the last seat in the four seater.

Mr Donnelly said Dublin West is a very competitive constituency and he was delighted to still be in the running.

He denied it was a poor result for Sinn Fein despite wide expectations the party would comfortable secure a seat.

Mr Donnelly also rejected concerns about leader Gerry Adams. He said: "Gerry Adams has topped the poll. Imelda Munster is going to come in behind him. If that is a disastrous leadership I don't know what a good one is. We have increased out vote again."

15:18 Olivia Kelly reports:



First count has been completed in Dublin Rathdown, Independent Shane Ross has topped the poll with 10,202, leaving him just 73 votes short of the quota. He is likely to get in on the next count following the distribution of the votes Renua Ireland’s Alan Daveron who was eliminated after getting just 1,055 first preferences.

15:23 Peter Murtagh reports:



Fine Gael and Fianna Fail tally analysts at the Castlebar count centre are now predicting that Mayo’s four seats will be slpit evenly between the two parties.



An air of quiet disappointment has settled on many of the Fine Gael party supporters gathered in the town’s TF Royal Theatre count centre, with some wondering whether Taoiseach Enda Kenny is the man to lead the party once the election dust has settled.



A final tally based on all boxes having been opened, as well as postal ballots, suggests that Kenny and Westport-based former Minister of State Michael Ring will be re-elected comfortably.



Fianna Fail will see the re-election of outgoing TD Dara Calleary who seems set to be joined in the Dail by Castlebar-based barrister and local councillor Lisa Chambers.



The prediction is based on tallies by both parties showing Kenny winning 13,300 forst preference votes, or 20.7 per cent of the ballot. Ring is running him a close second with 11,274 first preferences or 17.5 per cent of the ballot. Calleary is getting 9,417 first preferences (14.6 per cent) with Chambers getting 8,261 (12.8 per cent).



The third Fine Gael candidate, outgoing TD Michelle Mulherin, has 7,843 first preferences (12.2 per cent), according to the tallies. It is felt here that Kenny’s surplus is unlikely to push Mulherin ahead of Chambers and that the Fianna Fail woman is more likely to collect the lion’s share of independent Jerry Cowley’s Mulranny and Achill vote, tallied at 3,437 or 5.3 per cent.



On top of that, they say that Sinn Fein’s Rose Conway-Walsh, tallied with 6,397 first preferences (9.9 per cent) will see a greater share of her second preferences going to Chambers than Mulherin. Other independents are taking collectively insufficient first preferences for any of them to secure election. Returning officer, Fintan Murphy, began the first count about an hour ago and a first result is expected around tea-time.

15:30 Conor Pope reports:



The likely poll topper for Fianna Fail in Dublin Fingal Darragh O’Brien has said he can see no reason why Michael Martin should not be Taoiseach when a new government is formed.



He was speaking after being greeted by jubilant supporters as he arrived in the National Show Centre where the count is continuing.



“I’m delighted. This has been a long way back for us,” he said. “This is a massive honour and one I do not take for granted. We have done our level best to show we are a party that has been grown from our community. I am kind of overwhelmed by it,” he admitted.



When asked by The Irish Times if the result was an indication the electorate had forgiven Fianna Fail for its role in the economic crash under its watch, he said it had “spent a long time rebuilding trust” and suggested there was “more work to be done".



On the likelihood of Mr Martin becoming Taoiseach Mr O’Brien said: “Of course he should. He certainly deserves it.”



While the first count had not yet been completed, he 99 per cent of the ballot boxes tallied in Dublin Fingal Mr O’Brien looks certain too top the poll with an 18 per cent share of first preferences.



Minister for Children James Reilly looks like he is going to be in a real dog fight with Sinn Fein’s Louise O’Reilly to hold on to his seat although the gap between them has narrowed since this morning.



Independent socialist Clare Daly and Fianna Fáil senator Darragh O’Brien polled very strongly in the five-seater with O’Brien looking set to top the poll when the first count is declared at around 3.30pm.



With a fraction under 100 per cent of the tally completed, O’Brien has 18 per cent of the first preferences compared to Daly’s 16 per cent.



Fine Gael’s Alan Farrell is in third place with 12 per cent of the vote while Labour’s Brendan Ryan has won 10 per cent of the first preferences.



Sinn Fein’s Louise O’Reilly has 9 per cent and Dr Reilly is currently on 8 per cent having narrowed the gap since this morning when two percentage points separated the pair.



That could prove to be decisive as the count progresses with Reilly likely to attract more transfers at least from the established parties. Some tallymen, however, are saying that the independents will transfer to O’Reilly.



The mood of optimism among the Sinn Fein supporters in the National Show Centre has diminished although both they and Fine Gael supporters concede that the last seat is far too close to call.



Lorraine Clifford Lee of Fianna Fail looks like finishing the count on 6 per cent while Joe O’Brien of the Green Party is on 5 per cent, 2 per cent ahead of Terry Kelleher of the AAA-PBP. Gerry Molloy of Renua is also on 3 per cent as while Daly’s running mate Barry Martin is on 4 per cent.

15:35 Breaking: Shane Ross has just been elected in Dublin Rathdown

15:40 Howlin appears to rule Labour out of next government: Speaking on RTE Radio, Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Brendan Howlin admits Labour is now on a rebuilding mission. He also appears to be ruling party out of next government.

15:41 Anne Lucey reports: Michael Healy-Rae has just taken a lift in an open top double decker bus to Killarney town centre from the Killarney count centre, a sports and leisure centre on the N22 Killarney by-pass. He is wearing a tie with two stickers Vote No 1 Michael and Vote No 1 Danny Healy-Rae. The first count is not yet properly underway and asked if this was a celebratory tour in advance, Michael Healy-Rae has responded: "NO! But I'm starved with the hunger and I have to get something to ate!"

15:46 Update from Dun Laoghaire: Mary Minihan reports:



With all boxes of votes tallied in Dun Laoghaire, Fine Gael looked set to take two seats with 36.1 per cent of the vote. Mary Mitchell-O’Connor had 18.16 per cent and Fine Gael running mate Maria Bailey 17.98. Richard Boyd-Barrett of People Before Profit-Anti-Austerity Alliance (PBP-AAA) also appeared set for a seat on 16.53 per cent.

With Seán Barrett of Fine Gael seeking another term as Ceann Comhairle and therefore automatically returned to the Dail, the constituency is effectively a three-seater.

There was disappointment for Fianna Fáil, with the party trailing on 18.76 per cent and the vote split between former minister Mary Hanafin (10.94 per cent) and running mate Cormac Devlin (7.82 per cent).

Labour’s Carrie Smyth has polled poorly at 8.64 per cent, according to tallies.

The Green Party candidate Ossian Smyth secured 5.93 per cent; Independent Carol Hunt 5.31; Sinn Fein’s Shane O’Brien 5.25; Renua’s Frank Cronin 3.08 and Direct Democracy Ireland’s Richard Whitehead 0.4.

Fianna Fáil tallymen in the Dún Laoghaire count centre described their party performance as “disappointing” and say it did not reflect what they were hearing on the canvass.

Arriving at the count centre in Loughlinstown earlier, Mr Boyd-Barrett had predicted a “seismic shift” across the country and the “end of Civil War politics”. Dún Laoghaire has traditionally been a bastion for Fine Gael and the party left the Dail holding two of the four seats in the constituency.



15:47 Labour wipeout: The party is expected to get between 6 and 9 seats.

15:51 Colm Keena reports:



The consensus at the Carlow-Kilkenny count is that the constituency will return all three Fianna Fail candidates, one Sinn Fein, and one Fine Gael. The final tally at the five-seat constituency shows John McGuinness (FF) at 15.1 per cent, Bobby Aylward (FF) at 13.8 per cent, Kathleen Funchion (SF) at 12.4 per cent, Jennifer Murnane-O’Connor (FF) at 11.7 per cent, and John Paul Phelan (FG) at 11.1 per cent. The sixth ranking candidate in the tally result is Pat Deering (FG), at 8.9 per cent.



Senator Pat O’Neill of Fine Gael is predicting three Fianna Fail seats, one Sinn Fein, and one Fine Gael. The expectation is that Labour TD Ann Phelan will lose her seat as will Deering. Deering and Murnane-O'Connor are from Carlow, which usually returns one TD for the constituency. Aylward said that during the campaign he decided that people were tired with austerity and were looking for a change. He predicted a great result for Fianna Fail and did not rule out it going into Government with Fine Gael. The result of the first count is expected at around 4pm.





15:52 Sadly didn't get elected on this occasion but still have #TeamTuffy behind me. We'll tuff it out :) #GE16 pic.twitter.com/SoeQTiYcTy — Joanna Tuffy (@joannatuffytd) February 27, 2016

15:53 FG's Frances FitzGerald and Sinn Fein's Eoin O'Broin have been elected following first count in Dublin Mid West

15:55 Dublin South Central:



Marie O'Halloran reports:



Sinn Fein’s Aengus O Snodaigh is set to top the poll in Dublin South Central and will be joined in the four –seat constituency by three women,.



Independent TD Joan Collins is set to be elected in second place, retaining her seat followed by Fine Gael’s Catherine Byrne who also retains her seat.



The fourth seat will be a battle between People Before Profit Councillor Brid Smith and Fianna Fail’s Catherine Ardagh and will depend on transfers.



Mr O Snodaigh said it was “a relief that the election is over. We’ve heard what the people have to say.”

15:57 Dublin West: A tale of two doctors



It is expected Minister for Health Leo Varadkar will top the poll followed by Fianna Fail's Jack Chambers. The final two seats are between Tanaiste Joan Burton, Sinn Fein candidate Paul Donnelly and Anti-Austerity Alliance TD Ruth Coppinger. Mr Chambers said this was an extraordinary day for Fianna Fail, who he claims have a very good chance of winning this election. He said it was crucial there was not a second election just because politics did not like the result.





16:02 Martin gets tumultuous reception by supporters: From Barry Roche, Cork City Hall Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin has been given a tumultuous reception by party supporters when he arrived at Cork City Hall where both his own Cork South Central and Cork North Central constituencies are being counted.

There were loud cheers and applause when Mr Martin flanked by his wife, Mary and children, Micheal Aodh (21) and Aoibhe (19) arrived into the main auditorium where the votes are being counted.

Mr Martin smiled broadly as he was hugged and embraced by women while men stuck out to their hands to shake his hand and congratulate him on his campaign which looks like seeing Fianna Fail substantially increase its number of TDs from the 21 it had at the dissolution of the last Dail.

But Mr Martin took time out to pause and sign an autograph book for young Oisin Sheehan from Donoughmore in Cork North Central. “Oisin – Best Wishes Always – Micheal Martin,” signed the Fianna Fail leader before going off to do a live interview with RTE. Both Mr Martin and running mate, Michael McGrath are on course to take the first two seats in Cork South Central according to tallies with Simon Coveney set to take the third seat for Fine Gael and running mate, Jerry Buttimer battling with Sinn Fein’s Donnchadh O Laoghaire for the last seat.

16:06 Laois first count: Seán Fleming FF- 13,626, Charlie Flanagan FG- 8,370, Thomasina Connell FG- 4,233, Brian Stanley SF- 8,242, John Whelan Labour- 2,856, Sinead Moore Greens- 1,541 Quota was 9,718

16:12 Donnelly to top poll in Wicklow

Carl O'Brien in Greystones



Social Democrat TD Stephen Donnelly is set to be elected on the first count in Wicklow, based on a full tally of votes.

Labour TD Anne Ferris is on course to lose her seat, polling just under 4 per cent. Tallies from all 180 boxes in the five-seat constituency indicate that Sinn Fein councillor John Brady is on course to become the party's first TD in the constituency in almost 100 years with 16 per cent of the vote. Fine Gael TD and Minister for State Simon Harris is in second place with just under 16 per cent. Fianna Fail's Pat Casey is next, followed by Fine Gael TD Andrew Doyle (both 9 per cent) and Renua TD Billy Timmins (both 8 per cent).



Fianna Fail's Jennifer Cuffe, former Independent TD Joe Behan and Labour TD Anne Ferris are on about 4 per cent, followed by Fine Gael's Avril Cronin on 3 per cent. There is likely to be a battle for final two seats between Fine Gael TD Andrew Doyle, Fianna Fail's Pat Casey and Renua's deputy leader Billy Timmins.

Fianna Fail has traditionally held a seat here, but it was left without a TD when Former TD Dick Roche lost his seat in 2011 as the party's vote plummeted nationally. Tallies indicate Mr Donnelly has benefitted from a major surge in his vote over 2011, when he narrowly won the final seat here.

Fine Gael, which won three seats in 2011, looks set to regain at least one seat with Simon Harris's polling well.

Other tallies show he Green Party's Steven Matthews and Sharon Briggs of Anti-Austerity Alliance People Before Profit lagging behind the main parties (both 2 per cent).





16:20 Galway East update: Sinn Féin's Annemarie Roche has been eliminated on the third count in Galway East. No candidate has reached the quota yet. Roche's votes are now being distributed but they're going in no clear direction. There will probably be another couple of counts before a candidate is deemed elected. The fourth count should see the elimination of Labour Senator Lorraine Higgins.

16:21 Ground zero for Fine Gael: Dun Laoghaire - first count coming:

16:26

Limerick City update from Kathryn Hayes:



Adjudication on the doubtful votes cast in the Limerick City Consituency is to commence at 4.30pm. The Returning officer has invited candidates and their agents to inspect the doubtful votes in the UL area a where a first count result is still awaited in both Limerick constituencies. Some 47,195 votes were cast in the four seat Limerick city constituency, according to the final tally results.

16:44 Dun Laoghaire update from Mary Minihan:



In Dun Laoghaire, Mary Mitchell O’Connor of Fine Gael has secured 10, 817 first-preference votes.

Her running mate Maria Bailey has 10,489.

Richard Boyd-Barrett of People Before Profit-Anti-Austerity Alliance (PBP-AAA) polled 9,775 first-preferences.

With Seán Barrett of Fine Gael seeking another term as Ceann Comhairle and therefore automatically returned to the Dail, the constituency is effectively a three-seater.

There was disappointment for Fianna Fáil, with the party trailing vote split between former minister Mary Hanafin (6,478 first-prferences) and running mate Cllr Cormac Devlin (4,665).

Labour’s Carrie Smyth has polled poorly in the former constituency of ex-Labour leader and ex-tanaiste Eamon Gilmore’s constituency with 5,192 votes.

The electorate was 92,248 and the total poll 59,639. There were 401 spoiled votes so the total valid poll is 59,238. The quota is 14,810.

The Green Party candidate Ossian Smyth secured 3,478.

Carol Hunt, running under the Independent Alliance umbrella got 3,152. Sinn Fein’s Shane O’Brien polled 3,167, Renua’s Frank Cronin 1,812 and Direct Democracy Ireland’s Raymond Whitehead 213.

Mr Cronin and Mr Whitehead will now be eliminated.





16:50 Seat predictions:

OK, political scientist Michael Marsh has just released his seat predictions:



Fine Gael - 47; Fianna Fail - 44; Sinn Fein - 21; Labour - 8; AAA-PBP -5; Independent Alliance - 6; Social Democrats -6; Green Party - 3; Greens - 3; Renua - 2; Independents/Others - 16

16:55 Harry McGee reports: Lucinda Creighton has said Renua Ireland will continue in existence irrespective of whether or not the party succeeds in winning any Dáil seat. Ms Creighton who founded the party said she was very proud of what Renua had achieved and described the election as a “first step” for the party. The tallies indicate that Ms Creighton represents Renua’s only hope of winning a seat. She is locked in a battle with other candidates for the last slot in the four-seat Dublin Bay South costituency. As she arrived in Dublin Count Centre in the RDS, Ms Creighton said she very proud of the campaign Renua had run. “We have left no stone unturned,” she said. She added: It’s been a fantastic campaign. I have really enjoyed it. It has been tough and it has been gruelling.” In relation to the danger of her losing her seat she said she was very philosophical about these things and it would have been easier for her to run as an Independent..

16:57 Dublin Rathdown update from Olivia Kelly: The distribution of eliminated Independent Peter Mathews’ 2,241 votes hasn’t been enough to bring anyone across the line on the third count, but with a sizeable chunk – 345 votes – going to Fine Gael’s Josepha Madigan bringing her to 7,180, she looks set to be the next elected in Dublin Rathdown. However it won’t happen on the next count which will see the distribution of eliminated Sinn Fein candidate Sorcha Nic Cormaic’s 3076 votes – not enough to bring anyone over the 10,275 quota.





17:01 Willie O'Dea on the prospect of a grand coalition: As to whether he'd serve in FG/FF adminstration, FF's Willie O'Dea says it's a hypothetical question at this stage but says he would be extremely nervous about leaving SF as the biggest opposition party.





17:03 Carlow Kilkenny first count from Colm Keena:





John McGuinness of Fianna Fail got 10,528 first preference votes in Carlow Kilkenny, not far short of the 11,669 quota.

Returning officer Marie Garahy announced the details of the first count at about 4.40 pm.

Bobby Aylward of Fianna Fail got 9,366 first preference votes with Jennifer Murnane-O’Connor (FF) getting 8,373. Kathleen Funchion of Sinn Fein came next, with 8,700, and is being predicted to get a seat.

John Paul Phelan (FG) got 7,568 first preferences while party colleagues Pat Deering and David Fitzgerald got 6,562 and 5,017 respectively. Outgoing TD Ann Phelan, Labour, got 4,391 first preferences. Malcolm Noonan (Green) got 2,621 and Patrick McKee (Renua) got 2,483. Conor MacLiam (SP) got 1,120 and Paddy Manning (Ind) got 1,078. Keith Gilligan (Ind) got 456 and Noel Walsh (Innd) got 164. The latter two candidates have been eliminated. It is expected that Fianna Fail will get three of the five seats in the constituency.





17:04 Cork South West update from Louise Roseingrave:



A smiling FG's Jim Daly has arrived at the count centre in Clonakilty. He admits things have not gone well for Fine Gael countrywide but remains hopeful of a second seat in Cork South West for the party. Tallies have placed him as a sure thing, while his running mate, sitting TD Noel Harrington looks to be in trouble. "We are still hopeful," Deputy Daly said. First count results expected within the hour.

17:06 Meath West update from Elaine Edwards: A first count is expected shortly in Meath West, with Fianna Fáil's Shane Cassells expected to top the poll. Cassells was not present in the count centre at Trim GAA club throughout the day. Sitting TDs Peadar Tóibín of Sinn Féin and Damien English of Fine Gael both mingled with supporters as counting continued. Tóibín may also exceed the quota on the first count.

17:07 Our rugby live blog is fired up and running...for those who need a break from elections

17:14 Dun Laoghaire - count 2



At the end of the second count in Dun Laoghaire, Mary Mitchell O’Connor of Fine Gael has 11,088 votes. Her running mate Maria Bailey has 10,882. Richard Boyd-Barrett of People Before Profit-Anti-Austerity Alliance (PBP-AAA) has now polled 10,008. With Seán Barrett of Fine Gael seeking another term as Ceann Comhairle and therefore automatically returned to the Dail, the constituency is effectively a three-seater.



There was disappointment for Fianna Fáil, with the party trailing vote split between former minister Mary Hanafin (on 6,709 after the second count) and running mate Cllr Cormac Devlin (4,877). Labour’s Carrie Smyth has polled poorly in the former constituency of ex-Labour leader and ex-tanaiste Eamon Gilmore’s constituency with 5,296 after count two.

The electorate was 92,248 and the total poll 59,639. There were 401 spoiled votes so the total valid poll is 59,238. The quota is 14,810. The Green Party candidate Ossian Smyth has 3,677 votes now. Carol Hunt, running under the Independent Alliance umbrella got 3,410. Sinn Fein’s Shane O’Brien polled 3,209 and will now be excluded. Renua’s Frank Cronin and Direct Democracy Ireland’s Raymond Whitehead were eliminated after the first count.

17:17 Dan Griffin reports:

Outgoing Fine Gael TD Paul Connaughton has conceded he will lose his seat in Galway East. Mr Connaughton said the redrawing of the constituency boundary had a very substantial effect on his vote, which was more than 2,000 lower than in 2011. The Mountbellew-based candidate, whose father Paul Snr was also a TD, said he was "disappointed to lose my seat but that's politics". He added that he was now finished with politics at least for the short term and said he would more than likely not contest another general election if one were to be called in the near future.

17:21 Longford Westmeath update: Outgoing Fianna Fail TD Robert Troy, who topped the initial tally with over 11,500 first preference votes, has arrived at the count centre in Keenagh, Co Longford, after attending a wedding earlier in the day. Troy said he was "delighted with the tally figures" and Fianna Fail is seeing good results not just in this constituency, but "right across the country". "It appears that I will be declared elected on the first count, but after that every seat is still to play for," he said. "The people have given their verdict on this Government that they weren't happy with the policy decisions this Government were taking and the direction they were bringing the country. And that's evident in the results right across the country today."

17:30

Martin expects to FF to win over 40 seats





From Barry Roche, Cork City Hall



Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin said he expects the party to win 40 plus seats with the party then set to nominate him for Taoiseach but he refused to be drawn on whom he would do business with afterwards but insisted that he would always put the country first.

Speaking at Cork City Hall where he was attending the Cork South Central count, Mr Martin was questioned as to whether he would be willing to go into coalition with Fine Gael if it meant saving the electorate from another election in the event of a hung Dail.

“The country will always be first as far as Micheal Martin is concerned and we proved that in 2009 when we took decisions that were electorally and politically costly but in terms of the country were the right thing to do so obviously he country comes first in all our deliberations in this regard.”

Earlier Mr Martin had appeared to rule out any question of Fianna Fail going into government with either Fine Gael or Sinn Fein even when pressed and it was pointed out to him that the only possible stable combination would be a Fine Gael/Fianna Fail coalition.

“We don’t want to go into government with Fine Gael or with Sinn Fein- let’s wait until we know the final destination of seats because I think a lot of centre ground people are going to be elected as well – a lot of them are sensible and I think we can’t ignore our responsibility.

“To- say that its down to two parties is to ignore the reality of how people have voted and we will have a certain number of seats that will allow us to do certain things and allow us take certain positions but it’s by no means the dominant position.”

We have to listen to what the people have said and they haven’t voted in the traditional parties in the numbers that they used- I want to take time out to reflect on that as well,” said Mr Martin who was speaking just before the first count was announced in his Cork South Central constituency.





17:31 Poll result 'a rude awakening' for political establishment:



Anti-Austerity Alliance Ruth Coppinger said the results across the country were a 'rude awakening" for the political establishment. She said voters had sent a clear signal. "We need a new party to replace Labour." Ms Coppinger said the vote of Tanaiste Joan Burton has fallen significantly from 28 per cent, describing it as "some fall from grace in reality".





17:35 ELECTED: Niall Collins has topped the poll in the Limerick constituency with 12,276 votes #lkco #GE16 — Limerick Leader (@Limerick_Leader) February 27, 2016

17:36 Seanad Candidate Drafts Campaign Literature While Future Of Country Is Decided Around Her. #GE16 @LynnToWin pic.twitter.com/pUU2qmHk96 — Seb McAteer (@sebmcateer) February 27, 2016

17:37 Meath West update from Elaine Edwards: Fianna Fáil has gained a seat in Meath West with Shane Cassells elected on the first count shortly after 5pm on Saturday. Cassells, a long-serving councillor and former mayor of Navan, exceeded the quota of 9,652 by nearly a thousand votes, giving him 10,585 first preferences. Sitting Sinn Fein TD Peadar Toibin was just shy of the quota with 9,442 votes. The returning officer has excluded the two candidates with the lowest number of votes - Tracey McElhinney of Labour and independent candidate John Malone. A second count will now proceed.

17:42 High-profile casualty: Minister for Communications Alex White just eleminated in Dublin Rathdown

17:52 Kildare South update:



Kildare South’s second count is now in. Following the elimination of Suzzane McEneaney, Green Party, and Mary Kennedy of Renua their combined votes have been redistributed. Declan Crowe Ind got 466, bringing him to 2,609. Some 227 were transferred to Mark Wall Lab, bringing him to 4,504 and 197 went to poll-topper Martin Heydon FG, lifting him to 8,048. Patricia Ryan SF received an additional 192, bringing her to 4,459, Fiona McLoughlin-Healy FG got 166 bringing her to 3,416 and 114 votes were transferred to Sean Ó Fearghaíl FF, bringing him to 6,583. His running mate, Fiona O’Loughlin, received an additional167, increasing her vote to 7,073. Crowe has been eliminated and his votes, 2,609, will be distributed. We could see an election at the next count.

17:59 Dun Laoghaire - count 3



At the end of the third count in Dun Laoghaire, Richard Boyd-Barrett of People Before Profit-Anti-Austerity Alliance (PBP-AAA) has taken the lead with Sinn Fein transfers bringing his vote to 12,215.

Mary Mitchell O’Connor of Fine Gael now has 11,130 votes and her running mate Maria Bailey has 10,934.

With Seán Barrett of Fine Gael seeking another term as Ceann Comhairle and therefore automatically returned to the Dail, the constituency is effectively a three-seater.

There was disappointment for Fianna Fáil, with the party trailing vote split between former minister Mary Hanafin (on 6,792 after the third count) and running mate Cllr Cormac Devlin (5,055).

18:08 Ruadhán Mac Cormaic reports:



Fianna Fáil Senator Thomas Byrne has been elected on the first count in Meath East, retaking the seat he lost in the 2011 general election.



Mr Byrne was comfortably ahead of the other candidates, his 10,818 votes exceeding the quota by 470 on the first count. Trailing him were the Fine Gael incumbents Helen McEntee, who received 7,556 votes, and Regina Doherty on 6,830.



Fine Gael are well-positioned to take the second of the three seats in the constituency and could win the third unless Sinn Féin's Darren O'Rourke, who was in fourth place with 5,780 first preferences, pushes ahead with the help of transfers from independents and smaller parties.



Dominic Hannigan of the Labour Party, who topped the poll in 2011, received just 2,270 votes and is almost certain to lose his seat.



"It's a very positive day. I'm delighted," Mr Byrne said as supporters cheered in the background.





18:10 CORK NORTH CENTRAL: Fianna Fail's Billy Kelleher has been elected #ge16 — RedFM News (@RedFMNews) February 27, 2016

18:11 Mary Hanafin shakes hand of returning officer and leaves #DunLaoghaire count centre. End of era? #GE16 pic.twitter.com/UmHxjg4LXo — Joyce Fegan (@JoyceFegan) February 27, 2016

18:13 Dail M for Moynihan:



Darragh Murphy reports



It’s a case of Dial M for Moynihan in Cork North West, with two unrelated Fianna Fáil TDs of the same surname coming first and third on the first count.

Newcomer Aindrias Moynihan (FF) is in first place, with sitting FG TD Áine Collins, in fourth, set to lose her seat.

Aindrias drew the highest number of first-preference, with 8,924 - pipping sitting Fine Gael TD Michael Creed, who could yet overtake him when transfers are taken into account.

Creed, scion of a family dynasty that has supplied TDs to this constituency since 1965, garnered 8,869 first-preference votes.

This performance was mainly on the strength of late ballots from Macroom and suburban Ballincollig, the latter something of a cuckoo in the nest in this rural, conservative constituency.

In third is Fianna Fáil’s incumbent Michael Moynihan (no relation to Aindrias Moynihan), who won 7,332 votes. His stronghold in Kanturk and Charleville, on the northern extremity of this sprawling constituency.

No candidate has yet been elected, although three – independents Shirley Griffin and Jerry O’Sullivan, and Michael O’Donnell of the Communist Party of Ireland – have been eliminated.





18:16

18:18 Peter Murtagh reports from Castlebar:



“We are where we. The people have spoken and we have to listen,” said former junior minister and Mayo TD seeking re-election, Michael Ring, as he arrived at the Castlebar count centre ahead of Taoiseach Enda Kenny and the announcement of the first count result.



Mobbed by well-wishers and media and speaking through the cheers of Fine Gael supporters, Mr Ring said: “You’d have to be a magician to know what’s going to happen becuase the nunbers game is not adding up for anybody at the moment.”



After full results, he said there would have to be talks. “I don’t think the people want another election,” he said. “I hope not; I hope a government can be formed.”



He said Mayo was a “great achievement” for Fine Gael as the party was fighting for three of the four seats available.



Recognising it was “not our day”, he expresed sorrow at those of his colleagues who had failed to be re-elected. “I am very disappointed nationally.”



Asked if Mr Kenny should remain as party leader he said: “As long as Enda Kenny is Taoiseach, he’ll have my full support.”



On the prospects of talks with Fianna Fail and going into government with them, he said: “The leaders of all the political parties will have to look at each other and we’ll have to see what’s going to happen. We’ll certainly have to have talks with ourselves within Fine Gael and decisions will be made after that.”

18:24 Fiach Kelly on the implications of Election 2016:



As As Fine Gael digests the results of general election 2016, Taoiseach Enda Kenny faces a race both to assemble a government and to save his leadership of the party. Read on

18:26 Alan Shatter will lose his seat - Mary White will transfer more to Green #GE16 #dubrd — Richard Collumb (@collumbo) February 27, 2016

18:29 Still waiting for 1st count in Wexford. Some rechecking of votes. Tallies indicate 2FG; 1FF; 1Lab; 1Ind. #GE16 #wx pic.twitter.com/6WxtFbJf5h — Tim O'Brien (@TheIrishTim) February 27, 2016

18:30 No candidates reaches the quota in the first count of Dublin West #ge16 pic.twitter.com/KSli1nMCc6 — Enda O'Dowd (@endajodowd) February 27, 2016

18:32 #KildareNorth had 5 women on the ticket (36%) & they got 34% of the 1st preference vote. @CathMurphyTD elected on the 1st count #GE16 — Women for Election (@women4election) February 27, 2016

18:38 Mark Hilliard reports Gerry Adams has said Sinn Fein will wait for votes to be counted and “assess the lay of the land” before considering any form of coalition. On arrival at the Louth count centre on Saturday evening, where Adams appears to have topped the polls ahead of the first official count, he was asked whether he would rule out coalition with Fianna Fail. “Well that’s our party position. We have to wait until all of the votes are counted and all of the TDs are elected and then we’ll see the lay of the land in terms of the right to change TDs and others from the alternative position,” he said. “And we’ll see whether there is at this time the opportunity to elect a progressive government.” Pressed on the possibility of a deal he said it was a decision arrived at by the Ard Fheis, one he was bound by and “happened to agree with it”. “If we do have a proposition to go into government we will go to our Adh Fheis and they will make that decision.” He said it was only a matter of time before a progressive government is elected, he said. Meanwhile, Adams said their campaign staff and candidates were instructed to “stay on election footing” given the potential for a return to the polls. “We advised our people to get down the posters and hide them away because they could be back again very, very soon.”

18:42 Could Fianna Fáil overtake FG as the largest party?



Harry McGee reports:



Fianna Fáil is within a hair’s breadth of edging out Fine Gael as the biggest party, according to senior party strategists.

The party has increased its own estimates of seat gains since Saturday morning to above 40.

A senior strategist, speaking on a background basis, said it now puts the range of possible seats for the party at between 38 and 45 but believes the party will get a seat bounce from being more transfer friendly from eliminated Independent candidates.

An analysis by the Irish Times of all 40 constituencies suggests that Fianna Fail could win over 42 seats putting them within two to three seats of Fine Gael, which looks like it will win between 43 and 47 seats.

With a seat bounce, the party could win a second seat “against the grain” in constituencies such as Clare and Galway West. However, in many constituencies the battle with other parties, Fine Gael in particular, will come down to the final seat, with only dozens of votes separating the last two candidates.

After the near wipeout of 2011 in the capital, Fianna Fáil is now poised to win six seats in Dublin. The only discordant note for the party is Mary Hanafin will not win a seat in Dun Laoghaire.

18:45 2nd count in #corknorthwest Collins FG 6297, Creed FG 9024, Dennehy SF 3334, Fitzgerald Ren 1633, Manning GP 1501 1/2 #GE16 — Cork's RedFM (@CorksRedFM) February 27, 2016

18:47 Chants of Lowry, Lowry as the expected poll topper arrives at count centre #GE16 pic.twitter.com/AoKlJr0CeH — RTÉ Tipperary (@RTETipp) February 27, 2016

18:49 Kildare South update from Fiona Gartland: The third count at Kildare South sees Marti Heydon (FG) edging ever closer to election. The redistribution of votes from eliminated candidate, Declan Crowe, saw Heydon receive 249, bringing him to 8,297. Fiona O’Loughlin, FF, got 300 transfers, Sean O’Fearghail, FF, got 308 and Mark Wall, Labour, got 260, bringing the three candidates to 7,373, 6,891 and 4,764 respectively. Patricia Ryan, SF, got 835 transfers, putting her at 5,294 and ahead of Wall for the first time. Fiona McLoughlin-Healy received 138 additional votes, bringing her total to 3,554. She has been eliminated.

18:50 Bertie Ahern suggests SF would have won more seats without Adams:



Mark Hilliard reports:



Responding to a comment by Bertie Ahern that Sinn Fein could have gained more seats without Adams as leader, the Sinn Fein president dismissed it as “self-serving Fianna Fail-ism”.

“So I don’t pay any heed to that,” he said. “Fianna Fail have had a good election. But remember what happened is that in the last election people were so angry that they gave, some of them anyway, their votes to Fine Gael. And Fine Gael did [in power] what Fianna Fail did and people got disenchanted with them and now they are going back to Fianna Fail. “One thing is for certain: they will become disenchanted with Fianna Fail again.”





18:54 Cork North West update: Cormac Manning of the Green Party, a student, has been eliminated on the second count, after polling a very respectable 1,501 votes, including transfers. Out of a 13-strong field, he was the sole Ballincollig-based candidate. Due to the large field, no sitting TD is likely to be elected until the third, or possibly fourth count. The quota is 11,740. So far it’s a case of Dial M for Moynihan in Cork North West, with two unrelated Fianna Fáil TDs of the same surname coming first and third on the first count. Newcomer Aindrias Moynihan drew the highest number of first-preference votes with 8,924 - pipping sitting Fine Gael TD Michael Creed. Creed, however, has overtaken surprise Fianna Fail frontrunner Aindrias in the race for the first seat on the second count. The Fine Gael man gained 155 in transfers from the three independent and left-wing candidates eliminated in the first count, to the 80 that transferred to Aindrias Moynihan. Creed now leads the Fianna Fail newcomer by 20 votes.

18:57 #ge16: Election 2016: The tiptoe back to Fianna Fáil that became a stampede https://t.co/qqR4dT3ZOD — Irish Times Politics (@IrishTimesPol) February 27, 2016

19:04 Conor Pope reports from Dublin Fingal Fianna Fail’s Darragh O’Brien has topped the poll in Dublin Fingal and been elected on the first count.

Speaking this evening the new TD said he could see no reason why Michael Martin could not be Taoiseach when a new government is formed.

“I’m delighted. This has been a long way back for us,” he said. “This is a massive honour and one I do not take for granted. We have done our level best to show we are a party that has been grown from our community. I am kind of overwhelmed by it,” he admitted.

When asked by The Irish Times if the result was an indication the electorate had forgiven Fianna Fail for its role in the economic crash under its watch he said it had “spent a long time rebuilding trust” and suggested there was “more work to be done. But that’s our job”.

On the likelihood of Mr Martin becoming Taoiseach Mr O’Brien said: “Of course he should. He certainly deserves it.”

Minister for Children James Reilly looks like he is going to be in a real dog fight with Sinn Fein’s Louise O’Reilly to hold on to his seat with the first count putting him in sixth position behind the Sinn Fein candidate in the five-seat constituency.

Mr O’Brien finished the first count on with 10,826 first preferences which was 761 votes over the quota of 10,065.

Clare Daly running under the Independents 4 Change banner was in second place with 9480 first preferences. Fine Gael’s Alan Farrell was in third place with 7,514 while Labour’s Brendan Ryan was in fourth with 6,009 votes.

The big story of the evening is likely to be the fight for the last seat between the outgoing Minister for Children James Reily and Sinn Fein’s Louise O’Reilly. Dr Reilly finished the first count with 4,666 first preferences while Ms O’Reilly was ahead on 5,228.

Fianna Fail’s second candidate Lorraine Clifford Lee was in seventh place with 3,359 first preferences while Joe O’Brien of the Green Party had 2,783 first preferences. Ms Daly’s running mate Barry Martin finished with 2,42 first preferences and Gerry Molloy of Renua had 2091 first preferences and Terry Kelleherr of the AAA-PBP was close behind with 2,067 first preferences.

The order in which the candidates are eliminated will be crucial in determining whether O’Reilly or Reilly take the last seat with votes from Ms Clifford Lee and Dr Molloy likely to benefit Dr Reilly and the votes from Mr Martin and Mr Kelleher likely to go in larger numbers to Ms O’Reilly.



19:16 ► VIDEO: Ruth Coppinger: 'We will put a bill to repeal the 8th within three months' #GE16 https://t.co/jPal8xOxRp pic.twitter.com/nlSCuB06DZ — Irish Times Video (@irishtimesvideo) February 27, 2016

19:17 Offaly #Off update - Elected Barry Cowen (FF) believes #ge16 outcome may have implications for #irishwater https://t.co/r17FvUHM3k — The Irish Times (@IrishTimes) February 27, 2016

19:18 Donnelly elected on first count in Wicklow



Carl O'Brien reports

Social Democrat TD Stephen Donnelly has been elected on the first count in Wicklow, based on a full tally of votes. Mr Donnelly topped the poll with 14,348 first preference votes, or 21 per cent of the vote, a major increase on 2011 when he scraped the final seat by fewer than 60 votes.



Sinn Fein councillor John Brady is set to become the party's first TD in the constituency in almost 100 years after polling in second place with 11,151 votes. He is just over 300 votes short of a quota and is likely to be elected in the second count, which is underway. Fine Gael TD and Minister for State Simon Harris is also set to be re-elected with 10,819 votes.



Anne Ferris TD, meanwhile, is set become the latest casualty for the Labour Party, polling well behind on 2,634 first-preferance votes.



There is likely to be three-way battle for the final two seats in the constituency. Fianna Fail's Pat Casey (6,289), along with Fine Gael TD Andrew Doyle (6,045) and Renua TD Billy Timmins (5,510) are all in close contention.

19:21 Dun Laoighaire after the 5th count:



At the end of the fifth count in Dun Laoghaire, Richard Boyd-Barrett of People Before Profit-Anti-Austerity Alliance (PBP-AAA) is just 49 votes away from the quota of 14,810. Mary Mitchell O’Connor of Fine Gael now has 11,967 votes and her running mate Maria Bailey has 11,854. These figures follow the elimination of Green candidate Ossian Smyth.

19:26 Roscommon Galway first count:



First count: Naughten (Ind) elected - 13936. Fitzmaurice (Ind ) 9750, Murphy (FF) 6813, Hopkins (FG) 6812. Quota 11421. Naughten surplus of 2515 being distributed

19:31 Burton in dust up for final Dublin West seat with SF's Donnelly Socialist Ruth Coppinger says she might take third seat in Dublin West, behind FG's Leo Varadkar and FF's Jack Chambers...this would leave Labour leader Joan Burton fighting SF's Paul Donnelly for final seat.

19:33 Laois completes count:



And so Laois achieves the rather predictable distinction of being the first constituency in Ireland to complete its count, given the small field of candidates. A large transfer from eliminated Green Party candidate Sinead Moore ensured Sinn Féin’s Brian Stanley passed the quota on the fourth count with 10,092 votes, and he was duly hoisted aloft holding a starry plough flag by his jubilant supporters. For Fine Gael’s outgoing minister Charlie Flanagan it was a qualified success as he was re-elected without a quota- a far cry from his poll-topping performance in the old Laois-Offaly constituency in 2011, but he did share a large percentage of his party’s votes with the defeated Thomasina Connell. Speaking to The Irish Times prior to the final count, Flanagan described today as a “particularly black day for Fine Gael nationally” and categorised the national result as “gravely disappointing” but was content that the party bucked the overall trend by garnering over 30 per cent of first preferences in Laois.





19:36

19:38 People Before Profit TD Richard Boyd Barrett elected in Dun Laoghaire

19:41 SF's McDonald tops poll in Dublin Central



Marie O'Halloran report



Sinn Fein deputy leader Mary Lou McDonald has topped the poll and been elected in Dublin Central on the 6th count. The result was announced to huge cheers and as they waited for the declaration to be made her supporters sang an Irish song and chanted.



Speaking at the RDS count centre Ms McDonald said the outcome from the electorate is that “the Government has been sacked by the electorate”.



“They’ve sacked Fine Gael and Labour”, she said. "That was the first conclusion.The second conclusion is that politics here has changed. The old tweedledum and tweedledee between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael is now over.Politics is much more diverse. I think that’s a really healthy thing."





19:44 THIS IS WHY WE CAN'T HAVE NICE THINGS #GE16 pic.twitter.com/5iMWIaWz6Z — Clíodhna Ní Dhufaigh (@CliNiDhufaigh) February 27, 2016

19:46 SF's Toibin elected in Meath West: Elaine Edwards reports Sinn Fein TD and party finance spokesman Peadar Toibin has been re-elected to the Dail in Meath West on the second count. The count result was announced shortly before 7.30pm. Mr Toibin gained 271 votes from the distribution of Shane Cassells's 933 surplus. Fine Gael TD Damien English gained 210 votes from Cassells in the second count. This was insufficient, however, to bring him over the 9,652 quota. Fine Gael TD Ray Butler gained 87 votes, bringing his total to 4,519. The next highest candidate, independent Trevor Golden, gained 126 votes to bring his total to 1,844. The returning officer has now eliminated the candidate with the lowest number of votes - independent John Malone. A third count is now underway.

19:49 Independent TD Michael Lowry re-elected in Tipperary





19:50 Taoiseach Enda Kenny due in Mayo count centre in about an hour

19:53 Dun Laoghaire after sixth count



Richard Boyd-Barrett of People Before Profit-Anti-Austerity Alliance (PBP-AAA) has been elected a TD in Dun Laoghaire.

Mr Boyd-Barrett will be returning to the Dail after securing 15,718 votes.He went over the quota of 14,810 on the sixth count following transfers from the eliminated Fianna Fail candidate Cormac Devlin. The Labour candidate Carrie Smyth has now been excluded. Mary Mitchell O’Connor of Fine Gael now has 12,393 votes and her running mate Maria Bailey has 12,422. With Seán Barrett of Fine Gael seeking another term as Ceann Comhairle and therefore automatically returned to the Dail, the constituency is effectively a three-seater.



There was disappointment for Fianna Fáil, with Mr Devlin’s running mate former minister Mary Hanafin on 10,221 after the sixth count. Green candidate Ossian Smyth went out after count four. The electorate was 92,248 and the total poll 59,639. There were 401 spoiled votes so the total valid poll is 59,238. The quota is 14,810. A total of 412 votes were non-transferable after count six.





19:54 Galway East update: Galway East's three seats have been filled with outgoing Fine Gael TD Ciarán Cannon returned to the Dáil on the seventh count without reaching the quota. He joins Independent Seán Canney and Fianna Fáil newcomer Anne Rabbitte who both exceeded the quota on count six.

19:58 On the prospect of a grand coalition, FF's Eamon O'Ciuv says the party's position remains "no FG, no SF".

19:59 Mark Hilliard reports There is still no sign of a first count in Louth with proceedings certain to run into Sunday.

20:00 Breaking news: Former justice minister Alan Shatter eliminated in Dublin Rathdown.

Fine Gael’s Josepha Madigan and Green’s Catherine Martin elected to the second and third seats In Rathdown without reaching the quota. The count is now complete.

20:03 Varadkar rules out removing Kenny as leader



Sarah Bardon reports:



Minister for Health Leo Varadkar has ruled out removing Taoiseach Enda Kenny as leader of Fine Gael or entering coalition with Fianna Fail. Speaking as he was elected in Dublin West Mr Varadkar said this was a bad day for Fine Gael but all senior Ministers needed to accept their share of the blame.



Asked if Mr Kenny should remain as leader the Minister for Health said: "I think he should. Absolutely." Mr Varadkar said this was a disappointing result for Fine Gael but the party looks set to still be the largest party in terms of seats. The Minister for Health said the obligation to form a Government also falls on opposition parties also. He said he did not favour a Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition claiming it would not be good for either party and would not last long.



Mr Varadkar said: "I do not trust them and it would open the door to Sinn Fein as lead of opposition."





20:10 Wallace arrives at Wexford count



Mick Wallace has arrived at the count in Wexford where he is expected to take a seat later tonight or on Sunday.

Asked about his prospects he said: “I’m not there yet”. But he said he had a good campaign and knocked on about 20,000 doors mostly in towns and villages. He welcomed the potential Fianna Fail – Fine Gael coalition saying it would “clean up Irish politics”. “They are two right wing parties. The only difference between them is the civil war. Next time we will have a proper left right wing divide,” he said.

20:14 In the first big shock of #GE16 former Minister for Justice Alan Shatter loses his seat: https://t.co/oPrMefCgpy pic.twitter.com/Uzf5o4Zt7M — BreakingNews.ie (@breakingnewsie) February 27, 2016

20:22 Coveney predicts FG will lose over 15 seats



From Barry Roche, Cork



Minister for Agriculture Simon Coveney conceded that it has been a poor election for Fine Gael with the party likely to lose over 15 seats but he said he did not believe there was an appetite within Fine Gael for a challenge to Enda Kenny’s leadership.

"I don't get the sense that there is going to be any leadership challenge in Fine Gael. We will win in or around 50 seats and we will be the largest party and Enda Kenny will be the leader of the largest party."

"He will obviously take on his responsibilities of bringing the party forward. I don't get the sense that there is any panic or anything like that. People are disappointed. They are frustrated. A lot of very good people are going to lose their seats."

20:27 #ge16 FG's Alan Shatter loses seat in #dubrd as Greens make return to the Dáil https://t.co/OWHqQIXoEV pic.twitter.com/EnvT8yprC4 — The Irish Times (@IrishTimes) February 27, 2016

20:31 Clare update



Martin Wall reports:



Clare GP Michael Harty, who is expected to take a seat in the constituency as an independent candidate, has arrived at the count centre. He was joined by senior figures in the National Association of General Practitioners which backed his campaign. Fianna Fail's Timmy Dooley is likely to be the first person elected in the constituency.





20:42 Shatter expresses surprise at losing seat

Former justice minister Alan Shatter said he was not expecting the result and suggested a last-minute call by FG party headquarters to give first preferences to his running mate Josepha Madigan may have cost him his seat.

20:45 Labour leader Joan Burton looks likely to take the fourth seat in Dublin West after a dog fight with SF's Paul Donnelly.

20:47 Taoiseach Enda Kenny arrives at Mayo count centre...we're awaiting first words from FG leader on what's been a pretty awful day for his party

20:49 Kildare North update



Fiona Gartland reports:



The second count in Kildare North has distributed Social Democrat Catherine Murphy’s 1,320 surplus in a scattergun pattern to the remaining candidates. Emmet Stagg, Labour, got 201 transfers, Green candidate Maebh Ní Fhallúin received 164, 145 went to Frank O’Rourke, FF, and his running mate, James Lawless FF, got 131. Independent candidate Brendan Young got 123 transfers, Bernard Durkan, FG, got 121 and Reada Cronin, SF, got 118. Aishling Merriman, PBP, got 92 transfers and Anthony Lawlor FG got 84. The remaining candidates, Michael Beirne, Gerard Dunne and Elizabeth O’Sullivan, all Independents, received 17, 12, and 20 each respectively. These three have now been eliminated.

20:50 Louth first count



No candidate was elected on the first count in Louth which took place at about 8.30pm. As expected, Gerry Adams secured the highest number of first preference votes with 10,661, falling short of the quota of 11,255.



He was followed by Fianna Fail's Declan Breathnach on 9,099 and Sinn Fein's Imelda Munster with 8,829. For Fine Gael, outgoing TDs Fergus O'Dowd and Peter Fitzpatrick secured 6,814 and 6,408 votes respectively. Ged Nash, who is fighting to save his seat, a prospect many see as unlikely at this early stage, received 4,945 votes.





20:52 #ge16: #Laois Count Complete

1. Sean Fleming FF

2. Brian Stanley SF

3. Charlie Flanagan FGhttps://t.co/jlz0axyIsU pic.twitter.com/3l1yRmF7QE — Irish Times Politics (@IrishTimesPol) February 27, 2016

20:53 Galway East is about to become the first constituency in the country to finish up #GE16 pic.twitter.com/h5VnYAueAM — Dan Griffin (@dangriffinIT) February 27, 2016

20:57 O'Dea's surplus reveals strange voting patterns Kathryn Hayes reports:



The transfer of poll topper Wilie O'Dea's surplus of over 3,5000 has indicated surprising voting patterns in the Limerick East constituency.



Anti Austerity Alliance candidate Cian Prendiville secured the majority of the surplus followed closely by Sinn Fein's Maurice Quinlivan. Prendiville secured 660 of Deputy O'Dea's transfers followed in second place by Sinn Fein's Maurice Quinlivan who got 633.



Outgoing Minister for Finance Michael Noonan also benefitted significantly from O'Dea's receiving 615 of his transfers. However, O'Dea's transfers - despite reflecting unusual voting patterns - has not cleared the pitch in the battle for the final seat which still looks to be a fight between O'Sullivan, O'Donnell and Prendiville .

21:02 The three options confronting the State following this result: FF/FG coalition, FF supports FG minority govt, another election...





21:04 Mary Minihan reports:



Dun Laoghaire has returned two Fine Gael TDs, newcomer Maria Bailey and incumbent Mary Mitchell-O’Connor, along with Richard Boyd-Barrett of People Before Profit-Anti-Austerity Alliance (PBP-AAA). After seven counts, Ms Bailey secured 15,198 votes and her running mate Ms Mitchell-O’Connor 14,941.



Mr Boyd-Barrett was the first TD to be elected in the constituency on the sixth count and will be returning to the Dail after getting 15,718 votes. With Seán Barrett of Fine Gael seeking another term as Ceann Comhairle and therefore automatically returned to the Dail, the constituency was effectively a three-seater. Mr Boyd-Barrett went over the quota of 14,810 following transfers from the eliminated Fianna Fail candidate Cormac Devlin.



Mr Devlin’s running mate Mary Hanafin ended up with 10,969 votes as the count concluded, well behind the Fine Gael candidates. Ms Hanafin complemented Fine Gael on its “impeccable” vote management strategy in the constituency, noting that it had “bucked the trend” in evidence around the country, where there has been a swing against the Government and towards Fianna Fail.





21:12 Taoiseach describes result as disappointing



Taoiseach Enda Kenny described the election result as a "disappointment" for the party, saying the Fine Gael-Labour coalition would not now be returned to government.

21:15 LIVE: @EndaKennyTD 'As Taoiseach I have a duty in continuing in this role to see how best we can put a government together for the country' — Sunday Business Post (@sundaybusiness) February 27, 2016

21:20 Investigation ordered into unstamped ballot papers



An investigation has been ordered into the rejection of 72 ballot papers in Waterford because they were not stamped.

Presiding officer Niall Rooney has told candidates he plans to investigate the failure of staff to stamp ballot papers as required before they are handed to voters. Mr Rooney said it was not clear at this stage whether the problem with unstamped ballot papers arose in a small number of locations or was more generalised across the county. However, he promised whoever was responsible would not work on future elections. The 80 unstamped ballots were among 400 spoiled votes in the constituency.

21:23 Kenny reacts to disappointing election result Peter Murtagh reports:



Enda Kenna wants to remain in office as Taoiseach and as head of Fine Gael to see what opti