New Hampshire hosts the first presidential primary, and any politician’s visit is viewed as testing the waters for a White House run

On a wintry night last week Ohio’s Republican governor, John Kasich, took to the stage in a theatre in New Hampshire’s largest city as a snowstorm churned its way toward town. He quickly abandoned the podium to speak to the audience from the ground, at their level and out of the spotlight that had been shining.

The governor lauded the important work done by journalists across the world to hold the rich and powerful accountable while also attacking the sitting president and speaking about the need to unify as a nation.

In responding to questions from the audience, Kasich talked about how the United States’ allies view the country during the turbulent times of Donald Trump’s presidency and how immigration issues cannot be solved at America’s borders.

To be clear, Kasich has not said he is running for the White House in 2020 against his own party’s president. And he was in New Hampshire at the invitation of the Nackey S Loeb School of Communications to speak at its annual First Amendment Awards, not to campaign.

But any politician’s visit to the state – which hosts the first presidential primary in the nation – is viewed as testing the waters for a potential run. And, of course, the last time a keynote speaker took the stage at these First Amendment Awards two years before a presidential contest, he went on to win not only the New Hampshire primary, but also the presidency. That man was Trump.

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In New Hampshire, election season begins early. And if there is to be a Republican rebellion against Trump in 2020, New Hampshire is where its fires will be lit. Kasich’s visit has now firmly kindled speculation about a coming Republican civil war.

Kasich, who came in second in the New Hampshire primary to Trump in 2016, has been a somewhat regular visitor to the state recently and is seen as a possible challenger.

But he is not alone.

The Arizona senator Jeff Flake, a vocal Republican critic of the president, is also being floated as a potential insurgent candidate. Like Kasich, he has made several recent trips to New Hampshire, including an appearance at a Saint Anselm College’s Politics and Eggs event in March, a traditional stop for those seeking to win the New Hampshire primary. He also did not seek re-election this year. And while he has not said he is running, Flake has said that a Republican “needs” to challenge Trump in 2020.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Senator Jeff Flake, who has been a critic of Donald Trump, has said that a Republican needs to challenge Trump in 2020. Photograph: UPI / Barcroft Images

Bill Kristol, the founder of the conservative magazine the Weekly Standard and a Trump critic, is reportedly trying to recruit a GOP candidate to take on Trump in 2020 using his non-profit Defending Democracy Together. Kasich and Flake are being considered, as is the Nebraska senator Ben Sasse. CNBC reports that the Massachusetts governor, Charlie Baker, and Maryland governor, Larry Hogan, are “on Kristol’s radar” as well.

On Thursday in New Hampshire, Kasich only made allusions to potentially running in 2020, but he was clear that he did not want Trump in office any longer.

“I thought he was not a unifier. And then I held out the hope for a couple of years that he could find his way. I am now convinced that he can’t,” he said.

But would Kasich – or any other insurgent Republican candidate – have a shot?

There could be some appetite among Republicans: in August, a poll by the New Hampshire Journal found that 40% of New Hampshire Republicans support the idea of a Republican challenger facing off against Trump in 2020.

While Kasich came in second in the 2016 New Hampshire primary, the 16% of votes he secured was nearly 20 points below Trump, who won the state easily. However, Kasich’s fans say the governor could have a better performance next time around if he runs.

“You can’t really define the next election by the last election. Things are different. We now know what kind of president Donald Trump would make” said Thomas Rath, a New Hampshire Republican operative who was a senior national adviser to Kasich’s 2016 campaign.

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In polling conducted by the University of New Hampshire in August, 56% of New Hampshire Republican voters said they would cast ballots for Trump in the Republican primary in 2020 while 20% said they would vote for another candidate and 24% remained undecided.

While some may see this as a potential opening for challengers, Andrew Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, warned that Barack Obama had similar numbers as an incumbent among Democratic voters, with just 63% of New Hampshire Democrats saying in 2010 that they would vote for him in the 2012 primary.

And while many New Hampshire Republicans are not yet committing to voting for Trump, his approval rating among them remains high, hovering around 80%. Nationally, Trump’s approval rating among Republicans has reached as high as 91% according to Gallup.

“I don’t think he has to worry that much,” said Smith.

However, he added, if a Republican challenger “were able to win the New Hampshire primary against a sitting president, you would call into question the viability of the president.”

Wayne Lesperance, a professor of political science at New England College in Henniker, New Hampshire, sees opportunity for a Republican challenger, but notes that it is a difficult battle.

“When it’s framed to voters as it’s either Trump or a Democrat, Republicans will rally around the president saying he’s our guy, because the Democratic option is just a step too far,” he said. “But when it’s framed differently, not as between a president and a Democrat, but some other Republican, there seems to be a greater appetite.”

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Rath, the former Kasich adviser, said that simply being a different candidate than the controversial president was not enough to win. You need to have different policies that appeal.

“You’ve got to be prepared to be relatively specific. It’s not enough to simply say he’s kind of a crazy guy and I’m a nice guy.”

For any Republican challenger, a good showing in New Hampshire – or in the caucus in Iowa or the next primaries in Nevada and South Carolina – is a must.

“Those first four states are really the ballgame,” said Lesperance. “If you’re not seen as credible beyond that it’s almost impossible to mount what would ultimately become a national campaign.”

Analysts say challengers could survive a loss to Trump in a primary and remain a threat, but they would need to capture a significant amount of the vote.

“For a non-Trump candidate in the New Hampshire primary, they would really have to be over 30%, to get more than one-third of voter support, to be seen as a credible challenge to Trump,” said Smith of the University of New Hampshire. “Below that it’s just going to be expectations. You can always find a certain number of people who are unhappy with the president who are going to vote against him.”