Jason Noble

jnoble2@dmreg.com

With three weeks left in Iowa's race for governor, Jack Hatch trails Terry Branstad by double digits a new Iowa Poll, remains unknown to many voters and has gone silent on TV.

But the Democratic candidate and his five-term Republican opponent will share a Sioux City stage as equals tonight in their third and final debate.

The televised head-to-head may be Hatch's final chance to change the dynamics of a remarkably steady and static race for the highest office in Iowa.

"This is something of a last stand for state Sen. Hatch," said Loras College associate professor of political science Christopher Budzisz. "Barring any major gaffe or new development, this is a very difficult race for Sen. Hatch."

A Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll conducted last week underscores Branstad's wide lead and many advantages heading into the homestretch of the campaign.

Overall, Branstad is the choice of 54 percent of likely voters, compared with 39 percent who favor Hatch.

That 15-point gap between the candidates is in line with earlier polling, including a September Iowa Poll that showed Branstad with a 14-point lead. What's changed since then is that more voters have made up their minds: Only 4 percent remain undecided, down from 10 percent.

Branstad leads among every demographic group identified in the poll except for self-identified Democrats and respondents who said they've already voted. He even bests Hatch among women, voters under 35 and lower-income voters — all demographics that generally go for Democrats.

The narrowest gap is among people who say they live in cities: Branstad wins 47 percent of their vote compared with 46 percent for Hatch. Branstad has the advantage despite Hatch's background as a state legislator from Des Moines and a career focused on urban issues.

Hatch's 52 percent to 39 percent edge among early voters, moreover, is less evidence of his strength as a candidate than it is a testament to the Democratic Party's get-out-the-vote efforts that revolve around early absentee voting, said J. Ann Selzer, who conducted the poll Oct. 3-8.

The poll of 1,000 likely voters in the 2014 general election has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Among Hatch's challenges is the fact that many voters still have no idea who he is. Thirty-eight percent of respondents view him favorably, but more than a quarter — 27 percent — say they're not sure how they feel about him, an indication that he has failed to introduce himself over the last several months.

Sixty percent of respondents, meanwhile, have favorable feelings about Branstad, and just 3 percent aren't sure.

Branstad's lead, when coupled with poll results showing Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Bruce Braley trailing his GOP opponent Joni Ernst by a single point, also underscores the extent to which Iowans appear willing to split their tickets this year. Nineteen percent of Braley supporters in the Iowa Poll say they'll vote for Branstad.

In Tuesday's debate, an aide to Hatch said he'll continue his effort to disqualify Branstad, accusing him of overseeing "the most scandal-ridden administration in state history" and position himself as a "fresh start and a better deal."

"We'll take this opportunity to lay out not only the specific policies we've released throughout the campaign but also the contrast in character that exists between the two candidates," Hatch spokesman John Hedgecoth said. "We believe Iowans watching will have no trouble discerning which offers the best version of Iowa's future."

The campaign is banking on Democratic efforts to turn out voters who don't typically vote in midterms, Hedgecoth said. And while the campaign isn't airing TV ads right now, he said a plan is in place to return to the airwaves before Election Day.

Branstad, meanwhile, will be looking to avoid mistakes and hammer home the arguments he's been making for months about the state's overall health and his accomplishments over the last four years, Budzisz said.

Given the state of the race and the scant time remaining before Election Day, Budzisz said, only a major mistake on Branstad's part could allow Hatch an opening.

A spokesman for Branstad said the governor plans to talk about the K-12 education and property tax reforms enacted in recent years and his new plans for expanded high-speed Internet and affordable higher education options, among other issues.

"We fully expect to see Jack Hatch desperately launching personal attacks and wild accusations during the debate as his campaign struggles to gain support from Iowans," spokesman Tommy Schultz said in a statement. "His attacks will fall flat, as Iowans know Gov. Branstad because he visits them in every county, every year."

The debate, sponsored by the Sioux City Journal, the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce, KTIV-TV and KSCJ-AM, will be broadcast live on KTIV at 7 p.m.

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 3-8 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 1,000 Iowans ages 18 or older who say they have already voted or will definitely vote in the 2014 general election.

Interviewers contacted 1,651 Iowans ages 18 or older with randomly selected landline and cellphone numbers. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data.

Questions based on the subsample of 1,000 Iowa likely voters in the 2014 election have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20 the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.