Saudi Arabia to host Syrian opposition meeting for peace talks with Assad

Oren Dorell | USA TODAY

Saudi Arabia will host a conference of Syrian opposition groups to help them choose representatives for peace talks with the Syrian government to end the country’s four-year civil war, according to the Arab League.

The Saudis will host leaders of Syria’s moderate opposition over the next month, Nabil Elaraby, secretary general of the Arab League, told The Saudi newspaper.

A cease-fire and talks between moderate Western-backed groups and the government of Bashar Assad, who is backed by Russia and Iran, are to begin Jan. 1, according a statement issued by the International Syria Support Group. The group is led by the USA, Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and also includes Iran. They were among 20 countries that held talks in Vienna on Saturday on ending Syria's civil war.

The group is calling for elections in 18 months with United Nations monitors in safe areas.

The talks hosted by the Saudis will exclude the Islamic State, the extremist group that holds territory in eastern Syria and Western Iraq and claimed responsibility for the terror attacks on Paris last Friday. Also excluded will be Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, and any other group deemed a terrorist organization by the support group.

Al-Nusra controls territory in northern Syria along the Turkish border and territory in the south along the border with Jordan.

There are many armed opposition groups in Syria, many with links to al Nusra, so finding common ground will not be easy, said Walid Phares, president of the Global Policy Institute in Washington.

Syria’s opposition factions fall into three main groups, Phares said. One includes Islamist and Muslim Brotherhood-linked militias funded and armed mostly by Qatar and Turkey. Another, the Free Syrian Army, is a coalition led by secular former officers of the Syrian military and backed by Jordan. Saudi Arabia supports trusted militias in both categories. Al-Nusra is a strong outsider that all factions work with, Phares said.

"They need al-Nusra," Phares said. "When the regime puts pressure on them, al-Nusra comes to the rescue. This is problematic and they’ll have to find a way to deal with" it in the upcoming Saudi talks.

Even if a cease-fire takes hold between some combatants, the fighting is unlikely to end because the Islamic State is excluded and shows no sign of ending its aggressive behavior.

Who will represent the divided Syrian opposition is just one contentious issue. Another is the role Assad will play. The Obama administration, which wants Assad to step down, holds him responsible for the deaths of more than 250,000 Syrians in a war that began as a brutal government crackdown against peace protests in 2011. About half of Syria’s pre-war population of 22 million has been displaced, including 4 million who have sought refuge outside the country in the Middle East and Europe, the United Nations estimates.

Russia and Iran, who are helping Assad stay in power, say Syria’s future should be decided by its people. Opposition groups have balked in the past at even negotiating with the government while Assad remains in power, and are unlikely to accept his participation in any future election.

Secretary of State John Kerry has said that Assad shouldn’t be a roadblock that hinders a political resolution. “The question of Assad can be decided in the future,” said State Department spokesman Mark Toner.