This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 380,299 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – May 2014 and includes 4,181 to-face interviews in May 2014.

In May 2014 an estimated 1.186 million Australians (9.7% of the workforce) were unemployed. May unemployment is down 0.7% from last month, however compared to the same time last year unemployment is up 0.2%.

The Australian workforce* was 12,226,000 comprising 7,504,000 full-time workers; 3,536,000 part-time workers; and 1,186,000 looking for work according to the Roy Morgan monthly employment estimates. The Roy Morgan employment and unemployment figures do not include people who have dropped out of the workforce and given up looking for work.

Among those who were employed 993,000 Australians (8.1% of the workforce*) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time and looking for more work. This is down 0.5% from a month ago, but up 0.3% compared to the same time a year ago.

In May in total an estimated 2.179 million Australians (17.8% of the workforce) were unemployed or under-employed. This is down 1.2% from April but up 0.5% higher than in May 2013.

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 9.7% is a substantial 3.9% higher than the figure currently quoted by the ABS for April 2014 (5.8%).

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate Unemployed or ‘Under-employed’* Unemployed Unemployed looking for ‘Under-employed’* Full-time Part-time 2013 ‘000 % ‘000 % ‘000 ‘000 ‘000 % Jan–Mar 2013 2,391 19.2 1,352 10.9 703 649 1,039 8.3 Apr–Jun 2013 2,243 18.1 1,176 9.5 588 587 1,067 8.6 Jul–Sep 2013 2,314 18.5 1,272 10.2 618 654 1,042 8.3 Oct–Dec 2013 2,439 19.5 1,337 10.7 734 603 1,102 8.8 2014 Jan-Mar 2014 2,532 20.0 1,489 11.7 844 645 1,043 8.2 Months April 2013 2,254 18.1 1,154 9.3 508 646 1,100 8.8 May 2013 2,129 17.3 1,168 9.5 629 539 961 7.8 June 2013 2,346 18.9 1,205 9.7 628 577 1,141 9.2 July 2013 2,398 19.1 1,267 10.1 616 651 1,131 9.0 August 2013 2,257 18.2 1,251 10.1 631 620 1,006 8.1 September 2013 2,286 18.3 1,297 10.4 607 690 989 7.9 October 2013 2,410 19.3 1,333 10.7 726 607 1,077 8.6 November 2013 2,404 19.3 1,268 10.2 700 568 1,136 9.1 December 2013 2,503 19.8 1,411 11.2 777 634 1,092 8.6 January 2014 2,545 20.0 1,440 11.3 851 589 1,105 8.7 February 2014 2,641 20.8 1,561 12.3 866 695 1,080 8.5 March 2014 2,410 19.1 1,465 11.6 814 651 945 7.5 April 2014 2,387 18.9 1,308 10.4 628 680 1,079 8.5 April 2014** 2,374 19.0 1,299 10.4 629 670 1,074 8.6 May 2014 2,179 17.8 1,186 9.7 603 583 993 8.1

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed. **The Roy Morgan employment estimates for May 2014 are based to a lower estimate of the Australian population aged 14 or more (from 19,365,000 in the original April figures to 19,205,000 for the revised April figures and now at 19,232,000 in May). The lower Roy Morgan national population estimate is a result of ABS revisions after fully including the results of the most recent ABS Census.





Gary Morgan says:

“In May Australian unemployment fell for a third straight month to 1.186 million Australians (9.7%, down 0.7%). In further good news Australian under-employment fell to 993,000 Australians (8.1%, down 0.5%). Now a total of 2.18 million (17.8%) Australians are unemployed or under-employed – the lowest for a year since May 2013 (2.13 million Australians – 17.3%). “However, although the fall in unemployment and under-employment in May appears like good news, a key driver of the falls was a drop in the total Australian workforce as many people either stopped looking for work or lost their jobs. Both full-time employment (7,504,000) and part-time employment (3,536,000) fell and the total workforce decreased to 12,226,000 – the lowest total workforce since January 2013 (12,139,000). “The fall in the total workforce means Australia’s participation rate fell to 63.6% in May (down 1.6% since April). Australia’s participation rate is now at its lowest for nearly three years, since July 2011 (63.0%). The fall in the participation rate is a trend that has also been seen in the United States. Although official US unemployment has fallen to 6.3% in April 2014, the US participation rate has fallen to 62.8% - the lowest US participation rate since 1979. “The fall in the May unemployment estimate continues the general trend evident in the Roy Morgan March and April employment estimates and shows that despite many of the headlines in recent months, Australian unemployment has fallen to its lowest level in a year. Although the trend for unemployment is in the right direction – this is the first time Australian unemployment has fallen for three straight months since May 2011 – there are clearly additional reforms to the labour market required to increase the flexibility and productivity of the Australian labour force. “The measures outlined in the Federal Budget that aim to reduce welfare dependency for unemployed Australians under 30 by forcing young jobseekers to wait for up to six months before receiving unemployment benefits and also to ‘work for the dole’ for at least 25 hours a week to receive unemployment benefits are a step in the right direction – but the biggest driver of employment growth is a healthy and growing economy. “By stimulating the Australian economy through targeted tax reform and in turn reducing the still high level of unemployment and under-employment (2.18 million Australians) the Abbott Government will also achieve another policy aim by reducing and eventually eliminating Australia’s Federal Budget deficit. “If urgent reforms to increase workplace productivity are not undertaken – including eliminating excessive penalty rates for weekend work – there will be further job losses in the future. Failure to implement labour productivity reforms will in turn undermine confidence in the economy (ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has already fallen from a mid-April high of 116.1 to a five year low of 99.3 on the weekend of May 24/25, 2014) and will ultimately be a major factor in the Abbott Government losing the next Federal Election.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 380,299 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – May 2014 and includes 4,181 to-face interviews in May 2014.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results.)

For further information:

Contact Office Mobile Gary Morgan: +61 3 9224 5213 +61 411 129 094 Michele Levine: +61 3 9224 5215 +61 411 129 093

Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2014)



Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2014)



Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2014)



ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2014)









ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.