PX: 3 questions about FC Cincinnati stadium deal ahead of Monday's big vote

City Council is set to vote on Mayor John Cranley's $37 million FC Cincinnati stadium deal at 11 a.m. on Monday. Here are three political questions to ponder ahead of council's critical budget committee meeting:

Is the stadium issue a kickoff to 2021 mayor's race?

Unofficially, yes. Councilmen Christopher Smitherman and P.G. Sittenfeld are giving serious thought to running for mayor when Cranley is term-limited out in four years. The stadium deal is one of those major decisions that could make or break a political future, and Smitherman and Sittenfeld spent the week jockeying for position.

Sittenfeld on Tuesday said he's not supporting the deal. The lack of transparency and public input are among the Democrat's concerns. Sittenfeld also doesn't want to spend $7.3 million in Blue Ash Airport money from the city's reserve fund.

On the same day, Smitherman told The Enquirer he supported the deal. But on Wednesday, the independent hit the brakes after taking a closer look at Cranley's proposal. Smitherman told WLW's Bill Cunningham: "I'm a lukewarm to a maybe 'no.' "

By opposing the deal, Smitherman and Sittenfeld could risk future campaign donations from FC Cincinnati owner Carl H. Lindner III and his sphere of wealthy friends. But a "no" vote could help them gain favor among voters.

If we've learned anything from the last two mayoral elections, it's that voters favor the candidate who looks to spend money on practical needs (road paving, public safety) rather than on pork (streetcar). And on the stadium deal, we could be seeing the streetcar effect at play. Stadium supporters are really loud on social media, but they likely only make up a small portion of the electorate.

More: Commissioner Portune now open to idea of port authority owning stadium

More: Where's anti-tax group COAST been on stadium issue?

Could Yvette Simpson be the swing vote?

If Smitherman ends up opposing the deal, Simpson could wind up casting the deciding vote. The lame-duck city councilwoman hasn't tipped her hand on how she'll vote, but Simpson could have strong arguments for going either way.

During the mayoral race, Simpson said she agreed with Cranley on wanting to see the stadium in Cincinnati. But she said Hamilton County would need to pick up a big chunk of the cost, and that's not happening.

Simpson could view this as an opportunity to redeem her image and show she's pro-development after opposition to the Children's Hospital deal probably cost her the mayor's race. And as she looks for her next step in politics, Simpson also could throw a bone to part of her base – urban progressives and Millennials. Generally, these groups love soccer and have no qualms about spending taxpayer money on fun stuff like the streetcar.

Conversely, it's tough to see Simpson assisting in a victory for Cranley. She could easily point to the stadium deal as an example of why she pushed back on the Children's expansion – that major projects need more public input before they move forward.

More: Stadium doesn't guarantee FC Cincinnati entry into Major League Soccer

How will the vote go?

It needs five votes to pass. We definitely know where four council members stand. Republican Amy Murray and Charterite Kevin Flynn have been on record as saying they'll vote for it. Sittenfeld and fellow Democrat Chris Seelbach have publicly said they're opposed.

As our loyal followers know, Politics Extra's crystal ball has been broken since Nov. 8, 2016. We won't try to fix it for this vote. But right now, PX only sees four definite supporters of the deal – David Mann, Charlie Winburn, Murray and Flynn.

Murray has political aspirations beyond City Hall, and she won't go against the Lindner cash machine and influence in GOP politics. Mann is close with FC Cincinnati President Jeff Berding, who ran Mann's congressional campaigns in the 1990s and held a fundraiser for him this fall. Winburn owes much of his political success to Lindner's late father, billionaire Carl H. Lindner Jr. And Flynn isn't going to go against political ally Cranley as he prepares to leave office next month.

The deal has severely lacked transparency and public input. That could make it tough for anyone else to jump on board. Maybe Smitherman or Simpson come around to support it. If it fails, the stadium will either end up in Newport or Lindner will dig deeper into his vault and pay for the infrastructure to build the stadium in Oakley.

Politics Extra is a column looking inside Greater Cincinnati and Ohio politics. Follow Enquirer political columnist Jason Williams on Twitter @jwilliamscincy and send email to jwilliams@enquirer.com.