At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them. So here are a hundred more for 2017.

WORLD EVENTS

1. US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 60%

2. North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 95%

3. No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 90%

4. …in any First World country: 80%

5. Assad will remain President of Syria: 80%

6. Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state: 90%

7. No major intifada in Israel this year (ie > 250 Israeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war): 80%

8. No interesting progress with Gaza or peace negotiations in general this year: 90%

9. No Cast Lead style bombing/invasion of Gaza this year: 90%

10. Situation in Israel looks more worse than better: 70%

11. Syria’s civil war will not end this year: 60%

12. ISIS will control less territory than it does right now: 90%

13. ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria: 50%

14. No major civil war in Middle Eastern country not currently experiencing a major civil war: 90%

15. Libya to remain a mess: 80%

16. Ukraine will neither break into all-out war or get neatly resolved: 80%

17. No major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party: 95%

18. No major war in Asia (with >100 Chinese, Japanese, South Korean, and American deaths combined) over tiny stupid islands: 99%

19. No exchange of fire over tiny stupid islands: 90%

20. No announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such: 90%

21. EMDrive is launched into space and testing is successfully begun: 70%

22. A significant number of skeptics will not become convinced EMDrive works: 80%

23. A significant number of believers will not become convinced EMDrive doesn’t work: 60%

24. No major earthquake (>100 deaths) in US: 99%

25. No major earthquake (>10000 deaths) in the world: 60%

26. Keith Ellison chosen as new DNC chair: 70%

EUROPE

27. No country currently in Euro or EU announces new plan to leave: 80%

28. France does not declare plan to leave EU: 95%

29. Germany does not declare plan to leave EU: 99%

30. No agreement reached on “two-speed EU”: 80%

31. The UK triggers Article 50: 90%

32. Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France: 60%

33. Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany: 60%

34. Theresa May remains PM of Britain: 80%

35. Fewer refugees admitted 2017 than 2016: 95%

ECONOMICS

36. Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000: 60%

37. Oil will end the year higher than $50 a barrel: 60%

38. …but lower than $60 a barrel: 60%

39. Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 50%

40. Shanghai index will not fall > 10% this year: 50%

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION

41. Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017: 90%

42. No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump: 80%

43. Construction on Mexican border wall (beyond existing barriers) begins: 80%

44. Trump administration does not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton: 90%

45. US GDP growth lower than in 2016: 60%

46. US unemployment to be higher at end of year than beginning: 60%

47. US does not withdraw from large trade org like WTO or NAFTA: 90%

48. US does not publicly and explicitly disavow One China policy: 95%

49. No race riot killing > 5 people: 95%

50. US lifts at least half of existing sanctions on Russia: 70%

51. Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent: 80%

52. …lower than forty percent: 60%

COMMUNITIES

53. SSC will remain active: 95%

54. SSC will get fewer hits than in 2016: 60%

55. At least one SSC post > 100,000 hits: 70%

56. I will complete an LW/SSC survey: 80%

57. I will finish a long FAQ this year: 60%

58. Shireroth will remain active: 70%

59. No co-bloggers (with more than 5 posts) on SSC by the end of this year: 80%

60. Less Wrong renaissance attempt will seem less (rather than more) successful by end of this year: 90%

61. > 15,000 Twitter followers by end of this year: 80%

62. I won’t stop using Twitter, Tumblr, or Facebook: 90%

63. I will attend the Bay Area Solstice next year: 90%

64. …some other Solstice: 60%

65. …not the New York Solstice: 60%

WORK

66. I will take the job I am currently expecting to take: 90%

67. …at the time I am expecting to take it, without any delays: 80%

68. I will like the job and plan to continue doing it for a while: 70%

69. I will pass my Boards: 90%

70. I will be involved in at least one published/accepted-to-publish research paper by the end of 2017: 50%

71. I will present a research paper at the regional conference: 80%

72. I will attend the APA national meeting in San Diego: 90%

73. None of my outpatients to be hospitalized for psychiatric reasons during the first half of 2017: 50%

74. None of my outpatients to be involuntarily committed to psych hospital by me during the first half of 2017: 70%

75. None of my outpatients to attempt suicide during the first half of 2017: 90%

76. I will not have scored 95th percentile or above when I get this year’s PRITE scores back: 60%

PERSONAL

77. Amazon will not harass me to get the $40,000 they gave me back: 80%

78. …or at least will not be successful: 90%

79. I will drive cross-country in 2017: 70%

80. I will travel outside the US in 2017: 70%

81. …to Europe: 50%

82. I will not officially break up with any of my current girlfriends: 60%

83. K will spend at least three months total in Michigan this year: 70%

84. I will get at least one new girlfriend: 70%

85. I will not get engaged: 90%

86. I will visit the Bay in May 2017: 60%

87. I will have moved to the Bay Area: 99%

88. I won’t live in Godric’s Hollow for at least two weeks continuous: 70%

89. I won’t live in Volterra for at least two weeks continuous: 70%

90. I won’t live in the Bailey for at least two weeks continuous: 95%

91. I won’t live in some other rationalist group home for at least two weeks continuous: 90%

92. I will be living in a house (incl group house) and not apartment building at the end of 2017: 60%

93. I will still not have gotten my elective surgery: 90%

94. I will not have been hospitalized (excluding ER) for any other reason: 95%

95. I will make my savings target at the end of 2017: 60%

96. I will not be taking any nootropic (except ZMA) daily or near-daily during any 2-month period this year: 90%

97. I won’t publicly and drastically change highest-level political/religious/philosophical positions (eg become a Muslim or Republican): 90%

98. I will not get drunk this year: 80%

99. I get at least one article published on a major site like Huffington Post or Vox or New Statesman or something: 50%

100. I attend at least one wedding this year: 50%

101. Still driving my current car at the end of 2017: 90%

102. Car is not stuck in shop for repairs for >1 day during 2017: 60%

103. I will use Lyft at least once in 2017: 60%

104. I weight > 185 pounds at the end of 2017: 60%

105. I weight < 195 pounds at the end of 2017: 70%