As the mercury is going down in the household of ordinary Europeans, the degree of tension in the gas games of the “Russia-EU thrones” is only increasing. This is a yielding period for Russia, the gas Queen, which is triumphing every autumn and winter period, skillfully using the Europe’s strong dependence on natural gas imports.

Moreover, recent studies show decline in domestic gas production in Europe. Russia has artfully played the gas card in its relations with Europe. Its Trojan horse for Europe – the Nord Stream2 [under motto “benefits all of Europe, including millions of consumers in terms of lower energy prices”] is a great deal-example of its last years gas policy based on fears of ordinary Europeans, aspirations of some European countries to strengthen their positions on gas market and disagreements among European politicians.

Businesses in Germany have invested heavily in the project. The German Chancellor Angela Merkel assured Central and Eastern European states that the pipeline would strengthen country’s position and would not make Germany reliant on Russia for energy. Some others whose “yes” was needed have also joined the project.

In terms of figures and benefits proposed by Russia within its Trojan horse-stream, everything seems as a beacon of hope. But, at the same time not all are so excited and there are many those who are skeptical about the positive outcomes and consequences attributed to this project.

Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes. Some reasons why not to accept Trojan horse-stream

European Values Center for Security Policy considers that public opinion is not well informed. While the German political elite seems to be convinced that this is the right decision, there are some major reasons proving why construction of the Nord Stream 2 is a strategic mistake.

Firstly, building of this pipeline will increase German political dependency on Russian energy and may give Moscow greater leverage for its habitual gas blackmail applied a lot of times in the past. German government is the key driver behind European sanctions against Russia‘s aggression against Ukraine, and the leader keeping sanctions active. How Merkel can be so blind that not to understand: supporting this project, German provides Russia with a major tool for blackmailing the country in the future? Moreover, Germany is Gazprom’s largest European market and the construction of Trojan horse-stream will strengthen the company’s position against other competitors and ultimately against Berlin itself.

Pretending that the Nord Stream 2 project is not political is simply a lie!

Secondly, the Nord Stream 2 will bypass Germany’s Central and Eastern European allies and thus may weaken the Alliance.

The Nord Stream 2 enables Gazprom to charge higher prices in the CEE region. German analyst Georg Zachmann stated this idea eloquently: “Most alarmingly, Gazprom would gain another tool to discriminate between countries. Gazprom could then credibly threaten to cut off gas supplies in Eastern Europe without threatening its markets in Western Europe. In this way Gazprom could achieve higher prices in Central and Eastern Europe, without having to use illegal “destination clauses” (which allow buyers of Gazprom’s gas to only sell it to domestic consumers)”.

In this already difficult background for regional stability, the Nord Stream 2 may increase security risks in Baltic states too as it can be used by the Kremlin as a precondition for keeping armed forces near the construction sites “to protect them from sabotage”.

Specialists argue that it could give a tactical advantage to the Russian armed forces. More importantly, it would enable the Russian forces to block NATO forces’ movements by sea in case of armed conflict with Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania. Combined with armed forces based in Kaliningrad, the Nord Stream 2 circumvents Baltic States, legitimizing the presence of Russian armed forces in the region. The Nord Stream 2 is not only endangering the security of Ukraine but it also has a direct impact on the security of Baltic States. Another concern is the expected rise of hostile intelligence activities related to the construction of the Nord Stream 2, as well as the difficulty it creates for future NATO maneuvers in the region.

The Nord Stream 2 is not in line with EU Energy Union principles.

The EU energy agenda supports diversification and the necessity of unbundling. Under Germany’s influence, the EU is promoting renewables. Energy experts consider that the existing gas infrastructure is adequate to guarantee transport of the necessary volume to the European market. But from a supply perspective, the Nord Stream 2 officials claim that as supply in the Netherlands and Norway dwindles, Europe needs additional gas volume. They have forgotten that Gazprom simply intends to replace one part of the infrastructure (the pipelines going through Ukraine) with another (the expansion of NS2)!

So considering the current position of Europe and Germany regarding global warming, renewables, construction of this gas pipeline infrastructure is not with energy efficiency principles.

This not a full list of real facts about Nord Stream2…

So why are German and some other European actors active and excited about The Nord Stream2?

The explanation is simple: Russian lobbying efforts have become successful in working the floor of decision-making European circles. Putin took a combination of local pragmatic interests of some individuals as well as the incredibly ingenuous and dangerous ideological belief of a political class that if you do business with an aggressor, he will possibly become less aggressive. History has shown that such a strategy is ineffective. An aggressor needs to be stopped with resolute power and deterrence, not political bribes.

The possible outcome

Being confident in effectiveness of its gas tactic and reliability of pro-Russian lobbyists among European leaders and actors, Putin will try to do the best to break down gas transportation through Ukraine as sees it as the main drawback to become the only one on the gas market and to create its own gambling rules. Until now Ukrainian transit system has reliably delivered Russian gas to Europe for decades. If Ukraine is pulled out from the game, EU leaders may decide to abandon the so-called gas directive giving Russia Carte blanche on the gas market.