House Republicans will not be happy to have a convicted felon in their ranks, and Grimm will undoubtedly serve as an embarrassing distraction for Speaker John Boehner. While Boehner will likely pressure him to resign, the very stubborn Grimm will not be easy to dislodge. The House could theoretically expel Grimm but this is unlikely. As Roll Call notes, this punishment is usually reserved for crimes committed while in office. It's quite possible that the Republican caucus could be stuck with Grimm whether they like it or not.

If Grimm runs for re-election in 2016, there's no telling what will happen. Grimm proved in 2014 that he could successfully tap into his district's latent resentments, but it will be harder for him to argue that he's a persecuted innocent man now that he's actually pleaded guilty. The incumbent could face a primary challenge, though there's the risk that too many candidates could split the anti-Grimm vote enough to let him win with a plurality.

Politico gives us some potential Republican contenders, though they all have their drawbacks. Richmond County District Attorney Daniel Donovan is a rising star in the party, but that star has dimmed after he unsuccessfully prosecuted the police officer who killed Eric Garner. Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis has been mentioned, but she's unlikely to run against her ally Grimm. State Sen. Andrew Lanza could jump in: Republicans are reportedly worried about losing his Senate seat, though at 59-40 Romney it should be safe for Team Red. If Grimm changes course and resigns, at least Donovan and Malliotakis will probably look at running in the special.

Democrats will be looking to put this swing seat back into play whether or not Grimm is on the ballot. Former Rep. Michael McMahon, whom Grimm unseated in 2010, is openly considering a rematch. However, McMahon flirted with a bid in 2012 and 2014 before declining, and there's no guarantee this time will be any different. If McMahon doesn't go for it, Politico names some backup options for the Democrats. Assemblyman Mike Cusick could run, though his conservative views on abortion could cause problems with the party rank-and-file. State Sen. Diane Savino is also mentioned but she seems unlikely to jump in. Given that Savino is a key member of the Republican-aligned Independent Democratic Conference, that's probably just as well.

This is still a very volatile situation, and we'll see in the coming days and weeks if Boehner and his allies are determined to get a resignation out of Grimm, or if he'll continue to defy political gravity.

Senate:

• FL-Sen: Republican Sen. Marco Rubio is up for re-election in 2016, but it's unclear if he'll run. Rubio has made it no secret that he's thinking about seeking the presidency, and he's declared he'll only run for one office or the other. Democrats will want to put this seat into play no matter what, and Alexis Levinson of Roll Call takes a look at who may run.

In the horrible 2014 cycle, two Florida Democrats still proved their mettle. Rep. Patrick Murphy won a landslide re-election in his light red seat, and plenty of national Democrats want him to take his show statewide. Murphy himself confirms that he is thinking it over. Democrats wouldn't have an easy time holding Murphy's 52-48 Romney seat without him, but Murphy's excellent fundraising would help him counter one of Rubio's strengths.

National Democrats are also looking at Rep.-elect Gwen Graham, who flipped a 52-47 Romney seat last month. Graham seems intent to run for another term, but her party would try hard to change her mind if Murphy stays put. Some other potential candidates include Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn, Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, and DNC Chair and Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

If Rubio runs for president, there's no shortage of potential Republican contenders. Levinson lists:



• Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater • Attorney General Pam Bondi • Rep. Vern Buchanan • State Sen. Anitere Flores • Rep. John Mica • Rep. Jeff Miller • Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam • Speaker Will Weatherford • Former Rep. Allen West

Even if Rubio bails, some of these candidates could stay put until 2018: Republican Gov. Rick Scott will be termed out that year, and Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson will also be up.

• IL-Sen: With Republican Sen. Mark Kirk up for re-election in a blue state in a presidential year, plenty of Democrats are looking to take him on. Reps. Tammy Duckworth and Bill Foster have already been named as potential candidates, and Emily Cahn at Roll Call tells us that fellow Rep. Cheri Bustos is also thinking about it.

The conservative pollster We Ask America, on behalf of The Illinois Observer also takes a very early look at Kirk's chances. In a hypothetical match with Duckworth, they give the Democrat a 46-45 lead. However, against outgoing Gov. Pat Quinn, Kirk dominates 55-36. Quinn's name has occasionally been thrown around for Senate, but after losing re-election last month he shouldn't expect many calls from the DSCC.

• UT-Sen: There have been rumblings for a little while about tea partying Sen. Mike Lee receiving a primary challenge from a more establishment-flavored Republican. Until now there's only just been speculation about who could go after Lee, but according to a must-read article by Manu Raju at Politco, things are starting to take shape in the Beehive State.

Jon Huntsman Sr., the wealthy father of former Gov. and 2012 presidential candidate Jon Huntsman Jr., is looking to back a primary challenger. Prominent bank president Scott Anderson is also meeting with prospective candidates, and has already commissioned a poll. While neither man seems keen to run themselves, their money can definitely make Lee's life hell. The senator knows this, and is reportedly meeting will business leaders to ensure that he has the resources he needs.

It's still unclear who will step up. Former state party chair Thomas Wright is described as "actively considering a bid," while former state Senate President and Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce head Lane Beattie says he's being courted as well. Beattie doesn't sound incredibly enthusiastic about it, but says he'll make a decision after watching the new Congress. Anderson also reportedly met with Josh Romney, a son of Mitt, who also thought about a 2008 campaign against Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson. University of Utah political scientist Kirk Jowers is also a potential Anderson recruit, though neither he nor Romney has said anything publicly. Other unnamed business leaders are also thinking about jumping in.

As we've noted in the past, Utah recently adopted a new nomination system. In the past, parties' picked their candidates at conventions that were dominated by activists. However, candidates can now bypass the convention altogether and go straight to the primary, where unaffiliated voters can participate. The state GOP is looking to stop the new system, known as Count My Vote, but if it goes forward it could mean trouble for very ideological contenders like Lee. That said, the primary electorate will still be very conservative, and Lee won't be easy to beat. Still, it sounds like both Lee and his intra-party enemies are taking his re-election seriously, and we should be prepared for some fireworks.

Utah is an incredibly conservative state, and the winner of the Republican primary is almost certain to be the next senator. Matheson, who is retiring from the House, is probably the only Democrat who could make this a real race, and even he'd have a tough time. However, Raju describes Matheson as a potential candidate. Matheson himself doesn't appear to have said anything publicly about his 2016 plans in a long time, but if he does go for it he'd increase Democratic odds here from none to slim.

Grab Bag:

• Demographics: In a new piece for The New Republic, Daily Kos Elections' community member Stephen Wolf takes a look at why the electorate, especially in non-presidential years, is as disproportionately white as it is. Wolf finds there are plenty of structural factors, ranging from laws barring felons from voting to the electoral college itself, that keeps non-white voter participation as low as it is. Wolf also proposes several solutions to help make voter turnout more representative of the nation's demographics.

• Race Ratings: Every election cycle, the Daily Kos Elections team rates every Senate, gubernatorial, and House contest in the nation. Each election night we have a few shockers, with tight races turning into blowouts, or theoretically safe incumbents coming dangerously close to a forced retirement. In a new piece, David Jarman takes a look at which contenders beat the expectations game, and which ones underperformed. One thing's for sure: California Democratic Rep. Jim Costa will not be returning to our "Safe" column anytime soon.

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.