ChainLink (LINK) was identified earlier as having the best Sharpe ratio – here it can be visualized through LINK’s higher mean daily returns compared to other cryptocurrencies with a similar daily volatility.

Value Comparison using CAPM

Previously, we presented a comparison of risk versus return measured by the mean daily volatility and mean daily return, respectively. To build upon the idea of compensating investors sufficiently for a given level of risk, we apply the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to determine what is the threshold required return for a cryptocurrency to be worth its risk.

We quantified the systematic risk of individual cryptocurrencies by calculating its beta over the past year. Higher positive betas indicate that the cryptocurrency is more volatile than the market, whereas negative betas indicate that the cryptocurrency moves against the market. The Bitwise 100 cryptocurrency index, a market capitalization weighted index of the top 100 cryptocurrencies, was used as a proxy for the market portfolio in beta calculations.

In Exhibit 10, we plotted individual cryptocurrencies’ beta versus expected return, which was calculated as the daily rate of return using data from June 2018 to June 2019, and assume that historic returns are a sufficiently good measure of future returns. In addition, using the risk-free rate and the expected returns of the Bitwise 100, we constructed a Security Market Line that represents the fair expected return that an investor should be compensated for a cryptocurrency with a given beta.

Using this model, cryptocurrencies above the Security Market Line are theoretically undervalued, and cryptocurrencies below the Security Market Line are overvalued.

Exhibit 10: Plot of the expected return against beta for individual cryptocurrencies and the Security Market Line, calculated with daily returns from June 2018 to June 2019.