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It’s no surprise that this week’s federal election was decided by Ontario voters. Despite political parties’ obsession with Quebec, Ontario is the province where elections are won or lost. With more than one-third of federal seats, it can hardly be otherwise.

What was a little more perplexing was the strength of Ontarians support for the Liberals. Ontarians voted like it was 2015. For them, the Justin Trudeau government is still bright and shiny, as if multiple campaign promises were not broken and the Liberal leader didn’t embarrass himself and the country with the SNC Lavalin mess and his goofy blackface stunts. The Liberals’ Ontario seat total was one less than what they received in 2015. If that was a rebuke, it was the mildest one ever.

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Why did the Conservatives fail so badly in Ontario and what does the federal result mean for the future of Ontario Premier Doug Ford?

The first point to consider is that voting Liberal is the default position in Ontario. Voters supported Liberals provincially for 15 years despite performance that was mediocre on a good day. Conservatives are the people Ontarians elect when the Liberals have finally become absolutely intolerable. Clearly, they have not reached that point yet in the minds of about 40 per cent of voters.