For five days, the polls did not reflect much of a shift nationally. In the next two days, a few polls came out that changed that a bit. Averaging all of the changes in the polls that have been released, we see that Clinton has gained on Trump nationally by 1.7%. What we are seeing is a contrast in findings. The pollsters that poll new voters each time are finding a shift for Clinton. Pollsters that track the same voters or do a tracking method are finding a bump for Trump. It's hard to know who is right. The "fundamentals" crowd will likely side with the traditional pollsters, but they are really not finding a different result in their registered voter sample. They are finding the Democrats are now more likely to vote, thereby resulting in the bump.

Daily post-debate tracker Day of Debate After 1 day After 2 days After 3 days After 4 days After 5 days After 6 days After 7 days National Shift ---- Trump +0.55 Clinton +1.56 Clinton +0.88 Clinton +0.68 Clinton +0.62 Clinton +2.24 Clinton +1.71 Battleground Shift Trump +1.2 Trump +1.2 Trump +1.2 Trump +0.9 Trump +0.9 Trump +0.9 Trump +0.2 TIED See the full results here All of this underscores the challenge this election, who will vote? We don't know. The traditional pollsters are assuming a 2012 type turnout, but that is really in question. Of the ten battleground states, five of them shifted toward Hillary while one, Ohio, shifted toward Trump. None of the shifts were huge. One poll showed Clinton up 11 in Colorado, but I suspect that is an outlier. We will see. No states have dropped out of competitive status. It doesn't look like folks are changing their minds at this point, but that Democrats and Democratic leaning Independents have become more likely to vote and Republicans and Republican leaners less so. This could all change if Trump reassures those voters potentially available to him that he is up to the job. The discussion over the former Miss Universe consumed the headlines during this time period. Follow my new account on Twitter for daily updates on the election!