Former PM says capitulating to MP’s threats to ‘bring down the government’ would be the ‘worst and weakest response’

The Liberals have been thrown into crisis after the former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull went public on Sunday night with his extraordinary intervention to blow a hole in the plot to save the conservative MP Craig Kelly from a humiliating preselection loss.

The New South Wales state Liberal party executive had moved to use emergency powers to save Kelly, who was looking at losing preselection in the seat of Hughes, where moderates are believed to have the numbers to knock him off in favour of Kent Johns.

Kelly had refused to rule out moving to the crossbench if he lost preselection, a move considered potentially terminal by the government, which last week lost Julia Banks from its party room, robbing it of another vote after also losing Wentworth to Kerryn Phelps.

But, after learning of the ballot to save Kelly, Turnbull stepped in to make his disapproval known, declaring it the “worst and weakest response” to Kelly’s threats to leave the government.

Malcolm Turnbull (@TurnbullMalcolm) Today I learned there was a move to persuade the State Executive to re-endorse Craig Kelly as Liberal candidate for Hughes in order to avoid a preselection - in other words to deny Liberal Party members in Hughes the opportunity to have their say.

In a series of tweets, Turnbull said he was urging state executive members to allow the Hughes preselectors to have their way.

Malcolm Turnbull (@TurnbullMalcolm) I subsequently spoke with several State Executive members to express my strong view that the Party’s democratic processes should operate in the normal way especially after such a long debate in the NSW Liberal Party about the importance of grass roots membership involvement.

Malcolm Turnbull (@TurnbullMalcolm) It has been put to me that Mr Kelly has threatened to go to the cross bench and “bring down the Government”. If indeed he has made that threat, it is not one that should result in a capitulation. Indeed it would be the worst and weakest response to such a threat.

While still prime minister, Turnbull had resisted calls to save Kelly, who had been one of his harshest, and most vocal critics.

Johns, who is believed to have the numbers in the local branches, has faced increasing pressure to step down from the preselection, including being urged by the staff of the prime minister, Scott Morrison, to walk away, or risk being blasted out.

A “fax ballot” of the state executive was to be sent out on Sunday afternoon, overriding any local preselection, if the conservatives confirm they have the numbers.

These powers were used last month to overrule a party vote and reinstate the conservative Damien Tudehope in his state upper house seat.

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They allow the administrative wing to take over from the rank and file when the party’s best interests are at stake. Senior figures in the Liberal party are now arguing that because the federal election is now so close, the emergency powers can be used.

Senior factional figures said provided Alex Hawke’s soft-right conservatives and the federal party representatives such as Nick Greiner voted with the hard right, they would reach the 50% required on state executive to save Kelly.

The NSW Liberals are also planning to use the emergency powers and a fax ballot to save the sitting MP John Alexander in Bennelong, who is under preselection challenge from a local councillor, Trenton Brown.

Last week there were reports that Kelly was preparing to resign and sit on the crossbench, in preparation for a run as an independent in Hughes if he lost preselection – something he later denied. But the prospect added to the management problems facing the Morrison government.

Kelly’s defection would plunge the government even deeper into minority government after the Victorian Liberal MP Julia Banks made a similar move last week, in protest at the party’s attitude to women.

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It would make the government’s task of governing until the next federal election – likely to be in May – even more parlous.

But the intervention of the state executive will be deeply controversial in Hughes, where local preselectors are strongly backing Johns, a former mayor and vice-president of the state party. He is said to enjoy close to 90% support in the branches.

Johns has also parked his political ambitions twice before – once for the state seat of Miranda and for Hughes in 2016 – at the request of senior Liberals. In 2016, Turnbull urged him to withdraw from preselection on the understanding it would be his turn in 2019.

A senior local party member said this was not about factional politics. “Craig is just not around enough in the electorate,” they said. “We want someone who can represent us, not go on television.” Kelly is a regular on Sky News and has been running a speaking campaign within the party ridiculing climate change.

Kelly acknowledged to Guardian Australia he was facing a “contest” to hold his local seat, but added: “I am happy to run on my record.”

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Ironically it was the conservative wing of the party that lobbied for new rules giving local preselectors a bigger voice in candidate preselections.

Last weekend the NSW party voted to put the conservative senator Jim Molan in an unwinnable spot on the Liberals’ Senate ticket.

A deeply angry Molan, a former army major general, said he had “no comment at all” on his future. During the week he told 2GB he was “designed for the Senate” and “all options are still open to me”. He said he would not defect to another party or run as an independent.

One option being floated is that Molan could fill Senator Arthur Sinodinos’s seat if he retired from politics. Sinodinos has been on leave while being treated for cancer, but has given no indication he intends to resign, and the expectation is he will return to parliament.

Even if a vacancy arose, Molan would almost certainly face another preselection contest.