A Great Result For Any Other Film

When your movie opens to $177.3M, it’s usually hard to call that a disappointment. But Disney’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker came in at the bottom range of pre-release projections, noticeably below its Saturday weekend estimate, and well below its predecessors’ openings.

Rise opened -28.4% behind the trilogy’s original installment The Force Awakens and -19.3% behind predecessor The Last Jedi. Unadjusted for inflation, Rise is the 12th-biggest opening weekend ever, down from third- and fourth-biggest for Force and Last.

Rise also started near the bottom range of pre-release projections, most of which were around $190M. (On one popular box office prediction website, the lowest that any user predicted was $175M, only slightly below the actual result.)

Lastly, it debuted below the $185M to $195M range suggested by its $90M opening Friday. Indeed, its 1.97x weekend-to-Friday multiple was noticeably lower than 2.08x for Force and 2.10x for Last. This implies poor word of mouth caused a sharp dropoff after opening night.

Globally, the film debuted with $375.3M. That’s -29.0% behind Force and -16.7% behind Last. Unadjusted for inflation, it’s the 17th biggest global opening ever, behind 4th- and 8th-biggest for Force and Last.

America: Not a Cat Person

Universal’s adaptation of hit Broadway musical Cats had no claws at the box office, earning only $6.6M for fourth place. Most pre-release projections predicted about double that, around $12M.

Compared to other recent December musicals, Cats started -24.8% behind The Greatest Showman and -34.6% behind the wide expansion of La La Land.

Yet while many such December musicals have been slow burners which opened low but stayed in theaters for months, ultimately being financially successfully, don’t look for Cats to accomplish the same feat.

The film was so savaged, particularly for its visual effects, that Universal announced it’s taking the unprecedented step of releasing a visually-improved version to theaters beginning next Sunday.

Elsewhere at the Box Office

Lionsgate’s political dramedy Bombshell expanded wide this weekend, earning $5.1M in sixth place. Compared to other recent December political dramedies, it began -32.4% behind Vice and -51.4% behind The Big Short.

Last weekend’s leader, Sony’s fantasy comedy sequel Jumanji: The Next Level dropped -55.9% to second place.

A comparison here isn’t exact, because predecessor Welcome to the Jungle opened one weekend later in the calendar. As a result, its sophomore frame was the post-Christmas weekend, when most films’ earning actually increase. Such was the case with Jungle, which increasing +38.3%, making a comparison of sophomore frames inexact.

Read our interview with Jumanji: The Next Level director Jake Kasdan here.

Limited Releases

A24’s Uncut Gems earned the best per-theater average for a second weekend with $48,246, beating Rise of Skywalker with $40,259.

Both The Last Jedi with $51,987 and The Force Awakens with $59,982 posted the top per-theater average of their respective opening weekends.

How’d This Weekend Compare?

Total box office this weekend was $247.3M. That’s +110.0% above last weekend and +38.6% above this same weekend last year, when Aquaman led with $67.8M.

The Year So Far

Year-to-date box office stands at $10.78B. That’s -5.3% behind this same date last year, up from -5.7% after last weekend.

Monday’s Weekend Actuals (Domestic)

FRI, DEC. 20 – SUN, DEC. 22

WIDE (1000+) # TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST. 1 Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker $177,383,864 — 4,406 — $40,260 $177,383,864 1 Disney 2 Jumanji: The Next Level $26,505,147 -55% 4,227 0 $6,270 $102,316,512 2 Sony Pictures 3 Frozen II $12,980,927 -32% 3,665 -413 $3,542 $387,214,888 5 Disney 4 Cats $6,619,870 — 3,380 — $1,959 $6,619,870 1 Universal Pictures 5 Knives Out $6,503,186 -29% 2,535 -878 $2,565 $89,952,095 4 Lionsgate 6 Bombshell $5,109,146 1512% 1,480 1476 $3,452 $5,518,427 2 Lionsgate 7 Richard Jewell $2,583,372 -45% 2,502 0 $1,033 $9,561,031 2 Warner Bros. 8 Queen & Slim $1,847,230 -48% 1,078 -482 $1,714 $36,595,995 4 Universal Pictures 9 Ford v. Ferrari $1,846,348 -55% 1,433 -1462 $1,288 $102,007,956 6 20th Century Fox 10 Black Christmas $1,838,015 -57% 2,625 0 $700 $7,286,665 2 Universal Pictures 11 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood $1,337,366 -59% 1,524 -1331 $878 $52,532,417 5 Sony Pictures

LIMITED (100 — 999) # TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST. 1 Parasite $481,485 -24% 227 -79 $2,121 $21,226,898 11 NEON 2 Dark Waters $317,720 -83% 451 -1659 $704 $10,073,329 5 Focus Features 3 A Hidden Life $246,845 390% 106 101 $2,329 $318,988 2 Fox Searchlight 4 21 Bridges $230,000 -81% 350 -1183 $657 $27,165,123 5 STX Entertainment 5 Jojo Rabbit $190,400 -49% 230 -170 $828 $20,397,594 10 Fox Searchlight 6 Last Christmas $167,175 -64% 274 -342 $610 $34,855,230 7 Universal Pictures 7 Playing with Fire $160,773 -76% 287 -1094 $560 $43,733,832 7 Paramount Pictures 8 Midway $158,893 -82% 283 -1136 $561 $55,887,622 7 Lionsgate 9 Joker $141,192 -70% 201 -352 $702 $333,454,660 12 Warner Bros. 10 Harriet $108,735 -74% 203 -437 $536 $42,220,265 8 Focus Features 11 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil $108,010 -35% 180 -165 $600 $112,917,684 10 Disney 12 Abominable $55,755 -25% 146 -13 $382 $60,528,415 13 Universal Pictures 13 Zombieland: Double Tap $53,556 -36% 120 -42 $446 $72,785,288 10 Sony Pictures 14 Terminator: Dark Fate $48,887 -63% 120 -130 $407 $62,198,952 8 Paramount 15 Doctor Sleep $26,202 -68% 101 -87 $259 $31,488,764 7 Warner Bros.