For live coverage of Wednesday's city council meeting about the arena, go to edmontonjournal.com at 1:30 p.m. You can spar with columnists David Staples, John MacKinnon and Paula Simons in our live chat or track them on the #yegarena Twitter hashtag; link to the meeting livestream; vote in our polls and catch up on our past arena coverage, including our recent analysis of how arena deals in other cities stack up against Edmonton's.





EDMONTON - Now that Edmonton Oilers owner Daryl Katz has refused to come to city council on Wednesday, the current downtown arena deal is dead. And that’s the way it should be.

The framework for the deal — agreed to last October in New York by Katz and Edmonton Mayor Stephen Mandel — was fair. After a long, bitter and public fight, it garnered strong support with the public and city council. It would bring us a downtown arena, greatly boost the city core, and secure NHL hockey here at a reasonable price.

Katz should be pleased to sign it. It went a long way to meet his needs, including having him put in his $100 million over time, not up front. In fact, for all the Katz Group’s talk of investing $250 million in this project, it’s not putting up any upfront money into the $450-million to $470-million arena.

Yet even with such concessions, the Katz Group’s demands only seemed to grow, now reaching unreasonable proportions.

Enough!

There is next to zero public will to give a better deal to the Katz Group. I’ve certainly not seen a solid business case suggesting the city should do much to sweeten it.

In fact, having talked to local insiders in the know about NHL economics and arena politics, I’m convinced if Katz doesn’t reconsider and accept this offer, city council should build a downtown arena on its own.

With negotiations collapsed for now, here are a few things to keep in mind:

* The NHL wants the Oilers in Edmonton. Why would commissioner Gary Bettman and Katz’s partners want to see a team leave a good market and move to a city where revenues are uncertain? They’d rather have a team pay into revenue sharing, not take from it.

* Edmonton isn’t as big as Pittsburgh or Seattle, but there’s also no major sports competition here. There’s no NFL or NBA or Major League Baseball or massive college teams to suck up sports dollars and media coverage.

This is a large and wealthy market of hockey fanatics. The Oilers made $17.3 million in 2010-11, making Edmonton the fifth most profitable team in the NHL, according to Forbes magazine. Local experts also say the team makes about $20 million a year, partly due to the club’s new and lucrative regional TV deal.

* There’s a valid concern that the Canadian dollar might again tank, making Edmonton a weaker hockey market. So, yes, it’s risky for the Katz Group to sign a 35-year no-movement clause to secure the Oilers in Edmonton, as has been contemplated in this arena deal.