Sales of global electric vehicle (EV) are expected to drop by 43% this year, as uncertainty and fear brought by the coronavirus pandemic affects demand, Kallanish Energy reports.

According to a new research from Wood Mackenzie, EV sales for 2020 are projected at 1.3 million, compared with 2.2 million in 2019. The figures reflect potential delays to fleet purchasing due to lower oil price and a wait-and-see approach to buying new models, it said.

Global sales are expected to fall mostly in the second and third quarters, as countries battle the spread of the virus and its impact on the economy. Wood Mackenzie’s estimates also assume a global recession in 2020.

The consulting firm believes China will catch up to 2019 demand by November 2020, while Europe will do so by December. Year-on-year demand in the U.S. is projected to lag 2019 demand by 30% by year-end.

“At the end of January, sales of all cars in China were down 21% compared to 2019. By February, they had plunged by 80%,” said principal analyst Ram Chandrasekaran.

“EV sales were hit harder, with January numbers down 54% and February projected to be down more than 90%,” he said, adding that EVs accounted for roughly 5% of all vehicle sales in China for the past two years.

In Europe, however, EV sales surged 121% in January and were also growing in February. That’s because sales in the region were not impacted by the coronavirus outbreak then. The infection rate is expected to peak in Europe and North America towards the end of the first half, the analyst said.

Chandrasekaran notes that most new EV buyers are still first-time owners of the technology and the uncertainty and fear created by the outbreak has made consumers less inclined to change.

On top of lower consumer demand, automakers have shifted their production lines to make medical equipment. New model launches have been delayed, while carmakers are also discounting some models in a bid to move inventory.

“Despite the potential delays in EV adoption, several automakers have expressed a desire to be carbon neutral due to government policies and a change in investor attitude,” said Chandrasekaran.

He noted that the shift towards sustainability is the driving force behind the electrification of transport. “Uncertainty caused by the oil price war and global catastrophes will only serve to strengthen that resolve, not deter it,” the analyst added.