The role of Islamic State

Most jihadist attacks in the EU since 2015 have been perpetrated or inspired by the so-called Islamic State (IS).

This jihadist group started to take control of territories in Iraq and Syria in 2014 and declared the creation of a caliphate. Occupied territories at their biggest were about the size of Great Britain.

As of summer 2014, an international coalition including several EU countries conducted military action against IS in Iraq and Syria.

In September 2014, senior IS leader Aby Muhammed Al-Adnani called on supporters to kill “non-believers” in Western countries. In May 2016, he called on IS supporters to kill unbelievers by any means available to them in their home countries if they were unable to join IS in Iraq and Syria.

EU countries, especially those in the anti-IS coalition, are regarded as legitimate targets by them.

Who are the terrorists?

According to Europol, jihadist attacks in 2018 were carried out primarily by terrorists who grew up and were radicalised in their home country, not by so-called foreign fighters (individuals that travelled abroad to join a terrorist group).

Radicalisation of home-grown terrorists has speeded up as lone wolves are radicalised by online propaganda, while their attacks are inspired rather than ordered by IS.

Europol explains that these terrorists may not necessarily be very religious: they may not read the Quran or regularly attend mosque and they often have a rudimentary and fragmented knowledge of Islam.

In 2016, a significant number of the individuals reported to Europol for terrorism were low-level criminals, suggesting people with a criminal history or socialised in a criminal environment may be more susceptible to radicalisation and recruitment.

Europol draws the conclusion that “religion may thus not be the initial or primary driver of the radicalisation process, but merely offer a ‘window of opportunity’ to overcome personal issues. They may perceive that a decision to commit an attack in their own country may transform them from ‘zero’ to ‘hero’.”

Trend in modus operandi

Since 2015, jihadist attacks have been committed by lone actors and groups. Lone wolves use mainly knives, vans and guns. Their attacks are simpler and rather unstructured. Groups use automatic rifles and explosives in complex and well-coordinated attacks.

There has been a tendancy for jihadist terrorists to favour attacks against people, rather than buildings or institutional targets, in order to trigger an emotional response from the public. Terrorists do not discriminate between Muslim and non-Muslim and attacks have aimed for the maximum of casualties, such as in London, Paris, Nice, Stockholm, Manchester, Barcelona and Cambrils, among others.

What is the definition of terrorism?

The EU’s common legal definition of terrorist offences as set down in the Council Framework decision 2002/475/JHA, are acts committed with the aim of: