So the “Mahagathbandhan” in Uttar Pradesh has been officially announced. Both Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati have snapped out of the arrogance of 2017 and made a practical decision for their political survival. But as much as this alliance is a show of pragmatism, it has immediately created in both of them the arrogance that has led to Mistake No. 1.

That mistake is not taking Congress and RLD along. SP and BSP will contest 38 seats each and wont give candidates on the two seats of Amethi and Raebarelli. That leaves just 2 seats out of 80 for smaller allies. In theory these two seats could be left for RLD, but it is doubtful they would take that little.

Remember that the MGB in UP has absolutely nothing going for it other than the arithmetic. They don’t have even a semblance of chemistry. And to put all their eggs in the arithmetic basket could well be a mistake.

Nitish Kumar had a long record of developing Bihar. His image may have suffered a lot, but he carries the image of “saving Bihar” after it had been left devastated. Lalu Yadav brought in the loyal Yadav vote and the Congress did quite well in Bihar too (much to surprise of BJP). And the Mahagathbandhan won.

Despite the illusions that Akhilesh Yadav may have about the greatness of that one highway he built, he has nowhere the kind of image that Nitish had in Bihar. Yes, people sitting in audience at the NDTV Yuva conclave may clap at him talking of killing a journalist, but that’s not real janata.

Here are the totals from 2014:

For Bihar:

RJD+JDU+Cong : 44.3%

BJP+LJP+RLSP: 38.8%

That’s almost a 5% advantage for the Mahagathbandhan.

But here is what happened in Uttar Pradesh in 2014.

BJP+Apna Dal: 43.3%

SP+BSP : 41.8%

Yes, BJP had a 1.5% lead over the combined might of SP+BSP in Uttar Pradesh.

So it is tempting to compare to Bihar but there really isn’t a comparison. In 2014, the BJP/NDA was still ahead of SP+BSP, whereas it would have been far behind in Bihar.

Now I have been quite pessimistic about BJP’s chances in UP for a while because of Mahagathbandhan. I spoke of this possibility on the day that BJP won Uttar Pradesh in a landslide. It was inevitable and it has finally happened.

But what was really giving the edge to the Mahagathbandhan was the Congress. If you add the 7.5% votes of Congress in 2014 to the MGB column, then you really have the Bihar like situation. Otherwise not!

Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav have made a big mistake by forgetting that they don’t actually have the arithmetic on their side.

Even if you go to 2017 Assembly results:

BJP+AD+SBSP : 41.4%

SP+BSP: 44.2%

This is quite understandable for regional parties to gain a little bit in the Assembly poll. At the Lok Sabha level, it is the BJP which should go back in the lead.

The most popular leader in UP isn’t Akhilesh or Mayawati, it is Modi. They have discounted that.

And the fact that Uttar Pradesh has a “national vote”. Another fact they overlooked. This “national vote” didn’t just come in 2014. It happened in 2009 as well, when the Congress unexpectedly won 22 seats in Uttar Pradesh. Adjusting for the weak cadre of the Congress versus the strong cadre of RSS/BJP, 22 for them in 2009 was almost as much a miracle as Modi’s 73/80. In Uttar Pradesh, during Lok Sabha elections, the “national” party seems to get seats out of thin air.

Because Uttar Pradesh wants to think they control who runs the government. And not only is Modi the most popular leader in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress is now projecting the image of having “given up” in Uttar Pradesh.

Make no mistake. UP will be debating Modi vs Rahul for the Lok Sabha election. With Rahul seen as quitting Uttar Pradesh, the entire “national vote” will now accrue in favor of Modi.

Two other key points that SP+BSP are overlooking are this:

(1) Uttar Pradesh is much more urbanized than Bihar. For MGB fans, here is a humbling factoid: even in 2015, the BJP led over the combined might of the Bihar Mahagathbandhan in urban areas by a thin yet clear margin of 2%. There just weren’t many urban seats in Bihar to help the BJP. The scenario is completely different in Uttar Pradesh.

(2) In Uttar Pradesh, there is a very big “upper” caste vote, which makes the state very different from Bihar. Notice how Mayawati did not say a word about the new 10% quota. UP is one state where you can’t afford to antagonize upper caste voters. This upper caste vote will probably now go to Modi in a landslide.

And we haven’t spoken yet about other aces that BJP might have up its sleeve, such as sub quotas for OBCs and Dalits (quotas within quotas). If BJP goes in this direction in next few weeks, Non Yadav OBCs and Non Jatav Dalits will polarize in BJP’s favor.

Now, I have heard a lot about the reasoning of Congress (and RLD) being “external allies”, putting up upper caste and Jat candidates respectively to “cut votes”.

LOL!

When was the last time a vote cutter actually worked in Indian politics? I think that was in 2009 when Chiru’s Praja Rajyam Party saved Andhra Pradesh for Congress.

And in the Hindi belt?

Not since Paswan cut anti-RJD votes in the first round of Bihar polls in 2005. The BJP itself tried to deploy vote cutters in Bihar in 2015 and nothing worked. They again thought Jogi would save them in Chhattisgarh, but Jogi only made it worse. People really get this vote cutter trick now. There is no possibility of it working. Not with upper caste voters. And not with Jats who are polarized as Hindus since late 2013. See the demographics of Western Uttar Pradesh. Tell me what choice Jats have but to vote as Hindus?

So SP+BSP might be providing the bulk of the votes for the MGB, but their “winning edge” was coming from Congress and RLD. If these two parties had been included in MGB, only then they would have become invincible. Don’t worry about low turnout bypolls. They are actually quite vulnerable now.

In summary, SP+BSP is barely a “Mahagathbandhan”. Think of it as a typical state like Madhya Pradesh, where two parties are vying for power. SP+BSP should be treated as a single regional party fighting with BJP. Except that the “regional party” has more infighting than usual. And the BJP has Modi. And the vote share gap between the two is very small.