You have no doubt read a few articles about what to expect from Mike McCarthy, the Dallas Cowboys new head coach. You are aware that he comes from the famous Bill Walsh, west coast tree. You are aware that he spent a year away from coaching doing deep research on what the most effective offenses are doing in the NFL. You are aware he has fallen in love with analytics. So today, I will attempt to bring you something you might not have considered about the Cowboys new coach and why I think I can try to predict the player he will draft in the second round.

Mike McCarthy loves big, tall receiving targets going deep and he loves big targets catching TDs.

For example, in the 2014 NFC Divisional Round versus Dallas, Aaron Rodgers’ scored with a 13-yard TD strike to TE Richard Rogers to put Green Bay up for good. Later came the infamous Dez Bryant catch-non-catch, but it was Richard Rogers, with the winning TD catch.

In the 2017 divisional round, Aaron Rodgers threw a deep sideline ball—an impossible throw and catch on the run, to Jared Cook, setting up a field goal to win the game and rip my heart out. For that contest, Cook had 6 receptions and a TD, totaled 103 receiving yards and averaged 17 yards per catch. Also, earlier in the game, Richard Rogers caught a 34-yard TD. Just so you know, Richard Rogers had four years of middling production with Green Bay, only once did he total over 280 yards receiving (510 yards in 2015), but he still scored 13 TDs with the Packers. In the past two years with the Eagles, they've thrown him one pass for 7 yards.

This gets at what I want to believe is a little known genius talent of McCarthy--he will find role players with jumbo-size catch-radiuses that he sneakily deploys when his opponent is least expecting it. But that isn't all he wants to do. He also wants to find a big go-to guy and bludgeon you with him. Jordy Nelson was that guy for a number of years at 6-3 and about 220. But also, Jermichael Finley did some serious damage.

Let's look at a few seasons in Green Bay:

In 2008, TE Troy Humphrey averaged 14.7 yards per catch

In 2009 TE Jermichael Finley (6-4, 240) averaged 12.3 yards per

In 2010 Jordy Nelson (6-3, 220) started getting some targets, averaged 12.9 per; TE Finley averaged 14.3, TE T. Crabtree averaged 15.3

In 2011: Jordy at 18.6 per; Finley at 13.9

In 2012: Jordy at 15.2, TE Crabtree at 25.4

In 2013: Jordy again at 15; TE B Bostic at 17.1

In 2014: Jordy again at 15; TEs R. Rogers and A. Quarles over 11 per

In 2015: Entire offense is off when Jordy misses entire year with injury

In 2016: Jordy is back at 13 per. New WR, Geronimo Allison (6-4) averages 16.8 per. Jared Cook averages 12.6 per

In 2017: Jordy has an off year but he, G. Allison, TE’s R. Rogers, M. Bennett and L. Kendrics all combine for 1100 yards

In 2018, McCarthy was fired mid-year, but he was still favoring large receiving targets.

The new targets that year included WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6-4), TE Jimmy Graham (6-7), Jake Kumerow (6-4), (only caught 8 passes but averaged 12.9 per reception). TE Robert Tonyan (6-5) only caught 4 passes but averaged over 19 yards per reception.

All of the above to nail down the point that McCarthy likes to have some very tall receiving targets on his roster. If they are TEs that he uses more as WRs, he’s cool with that. If they are just really tall receivers that are role players—situational weapons—he’s cool with that as well. And if he can find a weapon like Jordy Nelson, who was nearly unstoppable in his prime years, then you can bet he’s going to run his offense through that guy.

Now just to clarify, I am not saying that McCarthy only relies on really tall men to move his offense. Randall Cobb was hugely important in Green Bay and he’s only 5-10. Davante Adams was a powerhouse there at 6-1 and before them, receivers like Donald Driver and Greg Jennings were key players.

But McCarthy obviously likes big targets, otherwise he wouldn't have so many on his rosters. Often times, he uses RPOUS's to surprise the defense with big plays at critical times. (RPOUS=role player of unusual size. I'm trademarking that).

If you think about it, it’s only logical. A target with a large catch radius is always nice, but on a deep ball or during a critical moment in a game, it can be extremely helpful for your QB. Instead of trying to drop a ball in a trash can from thirty yards out, your QB is dropping the ball into a garbage dumpster.

On top of that, the big receiver will be a mismatch for some defensive back, especially if he can jump.

Okay, Who Can Be the Big Target for Dallas?

So who does Dallas have that fits in this category?

Blake Jarwin. Which explains why he got the contract he got. I would bet anything that if you were out with McCarthy knocking back beers (I'm guessing Leinenkugels) --after he was loosened up a bit he'd tell you Garrett was nuts for not using Jarwin as more of a receiving weapon down the seam and in the red zone.

But other than that, where are the big receiving targets for Dallas?

Blake Bell was added, but he’s not the receiver that Jarwin is.

My expectation is that McCarthy is NOT looking for a little speedy slot receiver in this draft, unless he can get an elite talent. I think he's hunting a big catch.

Make no mistake, the offense will run through Cooper, Gallup and Zeke. But my money says McCarthy is shopping for some big targets to throw in the mix. And in this draft the guy I think he’s most interested in is...

Chase Claypool

Claypool is 6-4, 238 and he runs a 4.42. That's the exact same 40 time as Amari Cooper, but with an additional 35 pounds on a bigger frame.

Claypool is also bigger and faster than Jordy Nelson. And McCarthy loved Jordy Nelson.

Like Jordy Nelson when he joined the league, Claypool has room to improve. But unlike Nelson, Claypool has a perfect role waiting for him that I believe McCarthy will be happy to hand him on day one: playing in the slot.

Here is a quote from an ESPN article about Jordy Nelson’s comeback in 2016, which involved him gaining 40 percent of his receiving yards and six touchdowns from the slot position:

Perhaps everyone should have seen Nelson’s time in the slot coming after his injury. McCarthy said regularly this past offseason that he was hoping to find a big target – be it a tight end or a receiver – who could operate in the middle of the field, which he says is the fastest way to the end zone.

The "big slot" concept is a trend that has been in place for a while now. Rather than rely on your slot to be a water bug who jukes his man to the ground, you rely on your slot to be bigger than the defender and to seal him off from the throw. Claypool is fast and explosive as well. At 6-4 and 238 pounds, he has a 40.5 vertical leap and runs a 4.42. That’s insane athleticism.

Claypool could come in and man the slot position and grow into the offense throughout the year. In a couple of years, when Gallup is up for a new contract that Dallas can’t afford to pay him, Claypool could move into the second WR position.

Redzone Mediocrity

Dallas’ offense made huge strides in 2019, compared to Linehan’s final, dreadful years as OC. Dallas finished number one in yards, second in passing yards, second in 40+ yard completions, third in 20+ yard completions and sixth in points.

But finishing out of the top five in scoring must be seen as an underachievement, relative to those other numbers.

What happened to bring them down? Dallas finished 16th in red zone TD scoring percentage. Yikes.

Claypool may very well be the slot that McCarthy wants. A nice big target with serious NFL speed that can attack right up the middle.

Now you might be thinking, there are plenty of ways to score in the red zone. Zeke can run it in, Dak can run it in, Cooper and Gallup are highly talented. All true.

But at 6-1, both Cooper and Gallup are less than ideal for the small confines of the end zone when the offense is set up inside the ten. Cooper had just 2 TD catches from inside the ten, Gallup had just one. Witten had three. You can check out these numbers here: Red Zone Receiving Stats. By the way, Dallas threw just two passes Blake Jarwins way all year inside the red zone. He caught one for a TD against the Eagles and he caught one barely out of bounds in the back of the end zone against the Patriots.

In light of what I'm about to point out, the failure to throw more passes at large receiving targets inside the ten last year, especially someone as talented as Jarwin, was truly mind-boggling.

Five Years of Top TD Receivers Inside the 10 Yard Line

Who is scoring the TDs when the field gets small and dangerous?

Big men, that's who. I'm referring to offensive snaps that originate inside the ten-yard line.

Top-Five Receivers in TDs Scored Within the Ten Yard Line

2015

Allen Robinson, 6-2, 220

Erick Decker, 6-3, 218

Tyler Eifert, 6-6, 250

Jordan Reed, 6-2, 243

Larry Fitzgerald, 6-3, 218

2016

Jordy Nelson, 6-3, 220

Michael Thomas, 6-3,212

Mike Evans, 6-5, 225

Cameron Brate, 6-5, 245

Donte Moncrief, 6-2, 215

2017

Jarvis Landry, 5-11, 196

Jimmy Graham, 6-7, 250

Deandre Hopkins, 6-1, 212

Antonio Brown, 5-10, 195

Tyler Croft, 6-6, 252

2018

Michael Thomas, 6-3, 212

Davante Adams, 6-1, 215

Mike Williams, 6-4, 220

Zach Ertz, 6-5, 250

Travice Kelce, 6-5, 260

2019

Cooper Kupp, 6-2, 208

Kenny Galaday, 6-4, 214

Allen Robinson, 6-2, 220

Austin Hooper, 6-4, 254

Julio Jones, 6-3, 220

Here's the thing, when the offense is set up inside the 20, the top TD scorers look different. Smaller guys have space to get separation and get open for a TD. Cooper scored 5 TDs inside the 20, but just those two inside the ten. And yes, in some years, some smaller receivers will dominate even inside the 10, as 2017 shows us. But that is the exception to the rule. Dallas could greatly benefit from finding a WR in this draft with a massive catch radius and demonstrated skill in both high-pointing the ball and posting up defenders and walling them off from the pass.

If Claypool isn't available, there are other receivers to look at in other rounds. And instead of trying to review all of them here, I will say that there is a tight end who may be available in the third round who could do the trick.

I don't want to pretend to be some undiscovered genius football scout, I'm not. But based on what I've seen of this player, I really think he'll be a starting TE who scores plenty of TDs in the NFL. His name is Harrison Bryant. If you've really been studying this draft, then you know this athlete already, but I really only started paying attention to him recently. My thinking most of the offseason has been that Dallas won't invest in a TE in this draft because it's a weak draft for TE, I really like Blake Jarwin and I'm also happy about the move to acquire Blake Bell. And then there's still Dalton Schultz.

But I keep coming back to my initial realization that was the impetus for this article: McCarthy really does like big targets for his QBs and I think he's open to big, tall WRs playing a role or receiving TEs and I think he wants more than just Jarwin. So here is a link to a Harrison Bryant video, check it out.

There are a number of big receivers of all kinds that Dallas could come away with in this draft, but I love the idea of them taking Claypool if he's available and if not, don't rule out them taking Harrison Bryant--he's sneaky good and I think he'll be a quick study with whatever team he joins.