Democrats take aim at House GOP seats

Reps. Jon Runyan, R-N.J., (left) and David Valadao, R-Hanford, exit a meeting with House Republicans at the Capitol in Washington. Reps. Jon Runyan, R-N.J., (left) and David Valadao, R-Hanford, exit a meeting with House Republicans at the Capitol in Washington. Photo: Stephen Crowley, New York Times Photo: Stephen Crowley, New York Times Image 1 of / 3 Caption Close Democrats take aim at House GOP seats 1 / 3 Back to Gallery

Washington -- Rep. David Valadao is a freshman Republican in a Central Valley district where Democrats hold a 15-point voter registration advantage. He's siding squarely with his party in the government shutdown, saying the new federal health care law needs changes.

Liberal groups have drawn a bull's-eye on his seat. He's not worried.

"No one likes a shutdown, but they like what I'm fighting for," said Valadao, R-Hanford (Kings County). Based on what he's heard from his constituents, he said, "a very small minority of people have said they like Obamacare" - about 4 percent, by his count.

Valadao shows why fevered speculation that the partial federal shutdown could make San Francisco Democrat Nancy Pelosi speaker again remains just that.

Democrats need a net gain of 17 seats nationally to retake the House. It seems like a small gap, but really is more of a chasm.

'Self-destruct' needed

Republicans would have to "totally self-destruct" to give Democrats a chance of taking back the House, said David Wasserman, who monitors House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

California will be a prime target because its recent election reforms created lots of swing districts, drawn by a citizens commission, and a top-two primary system that thwarts hard-core partisans. But the rest of the country has gerrymandered districts that protect incumbents.

And as Valadao described his district, Democrats there are different.

"Registration says one thing, but the political leanings are another," Valadao said. "People like limited government. They're not quite the same Democrats that you'll see in other parts of California."

Even John Burton, chairman of the California Democratic Party, conceded that one ostensibly vulnerable Republican, Rep. Jeff Denham, R-Turlock (Stanislaus County), is a long shot for Democrats to knock off.

'Tough to get'

"Jeff would be tough to get," Burton said. Denham understands his district, Burton said, is married to a Latina and supports immigration reform, which makes it harder for Democrats to win over a demographic group that tends to boost their vote totals elsewhere.

The shutdown "doesn't look good," Burton said. "But Jeff's an affable guy, and we've got the beekeeper candidate, so we'll just have to see."

Denham's Democratic challenger is Michael Eggman, a beekeeper and farmer in his first-ever race.

The liberal group Americans United for Change started running a television ad against Denham this week, saying he "joined with Tea Party Republicans" to shut down the government, halting food inspections and denying cancer treatments to children.

Denham campaign consultant Dave Gilliard called the ad "factually wrong," saying Denham "voted numerous times to keep the government open."

Republicans have been passing piecemeal spending bills to reopen popular parts of the government. Democrats have rebuffed these, arguing that they've already accepted the GOP's spending level and want the government fully open.

Slim pickings

Wasserman said Democrats already won most of the seats they can get in California with their pickup of four in 2012. Three Republicans are vulnerable, he said - Denham, Valadao and Gary Miller, R-Rancho Cucamonga (San Bernardino County) - but "they're not equal opportunities."

He called Miller "the most endangered Republican incumbent in the country," because of a fluke 2012 election in which Democrats split their votes and sent two Republicans in a Democratic district to the general election.

Valadao won with 57 percent of the vote in 2012 in a heavily Latino district "and proved he has a pretty strong personal brand," Wasserman said. "In Denham's case, I don't think the race is all that competitive right now even with shutdown."

Burton thinks Democrats can pick off Miller and Valadao.

But to retake the House, Democrats would have to hold all their 200 seats, sweep every toss-up district and every district that leans Republican, and pick off five more rated as likely Republican, according to the Cook Political Report.

Vulnerable Democrats

California's reforms also created swing districts in which Democratic incumbents are vulnerable. They include three seats rated as toss-ups next year: those held by Reps. Ami Bera of Elk Grove (Sacramento County), Raul Ruiz of Palm Desert (Riverside County) and Scott Peters of San Diego.

Bera narrowly defeated Republican Dan Lungren last year. He voted for several of the piecemeal bills to reopen parts of the government. He said he was "not going to vote against veterans or stand up and talk about National Institutes of Health funding all the time and then (stop) research funding."

He also joined, along with Valadao, the bipartisan "Problem Solver Caucus," a group of 84 House members who Bera said have been meeting each morning, "listening to one another, talking about what we can do as rank-and-file members to rebuild a sense of trust and show we're willing to work together."

So far, the problem solvers have failed.

Despite terrible polling for Republicans, the public is also blaming Democrats. The looming fight over the federal debt ceiling, set to expire this month, is further complicating the political picture.

If the government defaults on its bonds, things could get much worse for Republicans. But the midterm elections are a year away.

"We've already thought this election would be about Lois Lerner and the IRS," Wasserman said. "We thought it would be about Edward Snowden, we thought it would be about Syria. Now we're on to the government shutdown. What's it going to be more than a year from now?"