Citi analyst Itay Michaeli lowered his price target on Tesla Inc. shares TSLA, +1.63% to $246 from $312 Tuesday, writing that he is increasing the probability of the bear case in his scenario analysis. "These new probabilities reflect our view that while Tesla's balance sheet should be able to withstand a highly disruptive Q2, the risk of an extended shutdown at Fremont could put significant pressure on the balance sheet (we assume minimum cash of around ~$2.0 billion)," he wrote. Michaeli also worries that some of the U.S. regions that have seen the biggest COVID-19 impacts are "significant [electric-vehicle] sales contributors," which in his view "calls into question the pace of demand even if Fremont were to restart production." Michaeli has a sell rating on Tesla shares, which are up some 6% in premarket trading Tuesday. The stock has dropped 48% over the past month as the S&P 500 SPX, -1.15% has fallen 31%.