NEW DELHI: Climate change, and more specifically the future of the Paris Agreement will be one of the issues that will dominate the conversation between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Barack Obama when the two meet on Tuesday in Washington. In the climate change and clean energy space, the focus of the meeting is expected to be on the early entry into force of the Paris Agreement and mechanisms for catalysing investment in renewable energy segment in India.President Obama, whose administration was a key player in deliberations leading up to the adoption of the global climate agreement in Paris last December, is expected to focus on the ratification and early entry into force of the agreement. For Prime Minister Modi, whose administration also took enormous efforts to help shape the contours of the agreement, the focus is expected to be that of securing the means of making good on the commitments made in the agreement, particularly for accelerating investment in renewable energy.Sources close to the development said that the two leaders are expected to announce the creation of two innovative initiatives that will focus on driving private investment into India's fast growing solar market. India is expected to underscore its commitment to ratify the Paris Agreement, and to take all measures necessary to ensure the completion of the process at an early date.“Climate change and co-operation clean energy are areas where Prime Minister Modi and President Obama have a meeting of the minds. In some senses with some political risk on both sides, both leaders have come forward and embraced an ambitious agenda on the issue. Both men see the issue of climate change in remarkably similar terms in the framework of a moral and spiritual response,” said Andrew Light, currently senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank, World Resources Institute, had served till earlier this year as senior adviser to the President Obama’ special envoy on climate change Todd Stern. Between September 2014 when the two leaders first met and now, India and the US have greatly expanded and initiated 15 new programmes in the area of climate change and clean energy.The United States has been at the forefront of the push for early entry into force for the Paris Agreement. In December, all countries agreed that the new global compact would come into force once at least 55 countries accounting for 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions submitted their instruments of ratification. As of now 17 of the 197 parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change accounting for less than 1% of the global emissions have ratified the agreement. The United States has said it will submit its ratification instrument this year, as has China. Collectively this would account for near 50% of the global emissions. With the European Union unable to ratify the agreement till sometime next year, the United States is looking to India to get it over the magic mark.“Important to do it early, we do it before the end of President Obama’s term. So, there will a lot of discussion on whether India will join before the end of the year or not. If India joins it will put us over the hump but more than the math of whether it gets us over the hump it will send a great message to both the US domestic audience and the world that not only is India acting on climate change but that India and the United States for potentially different reasons see that this the right agreement to move forward on,” Light explained.For the US, an early entry into force is a way to ensure that the Paris Agreement is not subject to vagaries of the presidential elections, especially if the next occupant of the White House is inimical to the international agreement on climate change. It also secures President Obama’s legacy, given the leadership role that the US took on in the run up to the Paris Agreement.While there is no doubt that India will ratify the agreement— India was among the countries that signed the Paris Agreement on April 22 at the UN headquarters in New York—the question remains on the timing of the ratification.Some analysts point to the Beijing’s announcement following the annual US-China Strategic Dialogue as indicative of the time line for ratification for other major economies. Special representative for climate change Xie Zhenhua said that China would ratify the Paris Agreement ahead of the G-20 meeting, which it will host in September. Analysts suggest that China’s BASIC partners—India, South Africa and Brazil—would follow suit and ratify the agreement around the same time.Two factors will impinge on timing—the process adopted for ratification, and providing a level of comfort that a change of guard in Washington will not impinge on India’s commitments in the global effort to tackle climate change.India has a fairly straightforward ratification process. In the past all international agreements have been ratified by Cabinet approval preceded by an inter-ministerial consultation. There is talk in some quarters of the possibility of wider consultation with Parliament before ratifying the agreement. “ The manner in which the ratification process will roll out will be the decision of the prime minister. Irrespective of the process, officials have made it clear that New Delhi will ensure that it has the systems and mechanisms in place to meet the targets and goals it has set before it ratifies the agreement. Central to this would be to ensure investment flows that are necessary for actualising the targets.India has already started moving on this front. Former Indian negotiator Ajay Mathur, who currently heads the New Delhi based think tank, Teri, said, “We had ambitious commitments as part of the INDCs, on many things we have already started taking action, such as the year wise roll out of the renewable energy plan, the ambitious perform, achieve and trade (PAT) programme for industry to improve its energy efficiency that contributes to India’s emission intensity target.” Mathur also said that another important development that took place after Paris was the initiative by the Prime Minister, who got together 11 secretaries asking them to identify measures to enhance energy efficiency in their respective sectors. An outcome of that exercise is the replacement of inefficient agricultural pump sets.Like in other parts of the world, there is concern about the impact of the US presidential election on the implementation of the Paris Agreement. There are concerns in some quarters about the United States continued participation in the Paris Agreement should the Republicans win the White House in November. The presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump has already made clear his unwillingness to stick with the agreement. Entry into force by the end of the year before President Obama demits office would make it tougher for the United States to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, as it will mean a process that will take about four years, and would be co-terminus with a US presidential term.Some analysts in India have expressed concern that while the US may not be able to withdraw immediately from the agreement, there is no guarantee it would implement the agreement. “There is little that would prevent an administration led by Donald Trump to do nothing to implement the agreement or meet the targets set out in the US climate change action plan nor would it submit fresh targets for the period from 2025. It is not clear how China would respond to this situation. Either way both the US and China are in a position to resist international pressures, the attention would be focused on India to ramp up,” a source close to the developments said. New Delhi is focused on securing investment flows that would ensure it can make the necessary energy transition.The meeting comes close on the heels of indications from India’s power ministry that it can hold back on setting up new coal power plants for the next three years, as the current capacity is more than adequate to meet the domestic demand for power. However, industry and power analysts are of the view that India’s demand could spike if the government fulfils its goal of electrifying all households by 2019, a move that would add as many as 300 million more consumers. Analysts also suggest that progress on the government’s efforts to ramp up manufacturing and urbanisation could push up the demand for power. Investment in the clean energy segment in this period could help India avoid setting up coal power plants at a later date or reduce its dependence of power sourced from fossil fuels to meet rising demand.The meeting between President Obama and Prime Minister Modi would go a long way in securing the partnership required for India to move forward with its clean energy plans, as well as its move to a low carbon pathway.In this context, sources close to the development indicated that the two leaders are expected to announce two initiatives in the solar energy segment. The US-India Clean Energy Finance (ICEF) initiative will raise and deploy up to $20 million in project preparation support, to be sourced equally from US foundations and the Indian government for solar power projects under consideration for financial support from the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC). This funding is expected to leverage an estimate $400 million in investment from OPIC and other investors for projects deploying distributed solar for grid tied communities, off-grid communities, and those served by mini-grids to benefit poor communities.The second initiative is the US-India Catalytic Solar Finance Program (ICSFP) to raise and deploy up to $40 million in high-impact catalytic capital, also to be sourced equally from US foundations and the Indian government to support investments into India's solar market, with a particular focus on the off-grid and solar rooftop markets. ICSFP's flexible capital will enable commercially oriented capital to flow into new, innovative and high-impact projects. It is anticipated to mobilize up to $1 billion in capital flows.The two leaders are also expected to discuss the phasedown of the hydroflurocarbons (HFCs) under the Montreal Protocol. In 2014, India agreed to discuss the phasedown of these refrigerants with high global warming potential under the Montreal Protocol, which deal with the protection of the ozone layer. The Indian and US proposals for amending the Protocol are at variance, and the discussions between the two sides would seek to close the gap.