National strategy the key to continuity

Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha prepares for a group photo session with his new cabinet in front of Government House. Wichan Charoenkiatpakul

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's civilian government will be the first Thai government that will not have a "honeymoon" period. From the start, his government's performance will be monitored and judged without any sympathy by opposition parties, political pundits, and the media. With political doyen Chuan Leekpai serving as House speaker, all politicians should be held accountable for their policies and positions.

So far, Gen Prayut has been lucky since he has managed to overcome numerous hurdles without getting bruised. That said, it will be a different ballgame altogether later this week for the former military leader, as his opponents will be using every toolkit available under Thailand's imperfect democratic system to challenge his position.

Indeed, Gen Prayut have learned the craft of Thai politics and governance in the most unusual way during the past five years of military control. Now, however, he has to deal with raw politics and realities on the ground. He no longer has the magic wand that is Section 44, which allowed him to cut through the labyrinthine bureaucracy and political obstacles. This time around, he has to use his leadership skills and political acumen to push his government's policies.

Thailand has once again returned to its normal state -- all hell may break loose, and it most certainly will.

The results of the last election showed the dynamic and unpredictable nature of Thai voters and their sentiments. The Future Forward Party was the biggest beneficiary of the new mixed proportional electoral system -- winning 50 out of 81 party list seats. The Democrat Party's campaign against the military regime did not fly as well as expected, as it only won a dismal 49 seats, but in the end it decided to join the Prayut administration.

What Gen Prayut and his team has learned about the levels of intelligence, or the extent of incompetence of Thai politicians will quickly manifest itself when the government starts to implement the 12 policies and priorities that the government plans to announce on Thursday.

In the past three months, the most frequently asked questions have been: Can he manage a coalition of 19 parties? And how long will his government last?

These are difficult questions to answer, because comparing military rule to parliamentary politics is like comparing apples and oranges. But some observations could be made at this juncture.

First of all, it is interesting to see that despite all of the criticism levelled against Gen Prayut in all these years as a dictator, and political campaigns against military rule, he still emerged as the favourite candidate for the premiership. For the first time in Thai political history, there were 68 candidates submitted by 77 political parties to run for the highest office in the country. The Palang Pracharath Party, which strongly supports military rule, received the highest number of votes at 8,333,137, followed in second place by Pheu Thai, which received 7,920,630 votes, but did not submit its own candidate for premier. If all 19 parties supporting Gen Prayut were included, the vote tally would increase to 18,306,374.

Second, no Thai government in recent history has had Gen Prayut's luck, as he was able to continue his post without a hitch. Stability and continuity will be a boon for the 29th prime minister as he tries to run the country and face the challenges of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Despite the political bickering among coalition parties, the military's support for his government is solid. Never mind the rumour mill -- there won't be any coup.

Third, it is amazing that Gen Prayut could pull together the 79-page government policy that accommodates the demands and priorities of all 19 coalition parties within two weeks. The policies are essentially aimed at raising the standard of living and well-being of Thais -- especially in rural areas -- and to ensure that Thailand can compete in the fast-changing world by a digitalising its economy. It aims to make Thailand more nimble and innovative.

Truth be told, the fact that the new government could come up with a comprehensive policy in such a short time is mainly due to the 20-year National Strategic Plan passed in 2016, which provides a long-term developmental vision for Thailand. The national strategy serves a larger and common purpose. More so than political parties -- coalition or opposition -- would like to admit, the strategic plan also helps to frame and realise their campaign promises. Whichever government gets in, there will be a continuity of the broad national strategy, which helps to guide the country's future direction.

Fourth, there will be a continuity in foreign policy beyond the current Asean chairmanship. The new government's foreign policy follows the pathway set forth by the national strategy, by advancing partnerships with all countries to boost both sustainable development and security. Thailand's enhanced role in the international community will continue unabated with five important orientations.

First of all, Thailand will play an active and constructive role on regional and international platforms to promoting diplomatic relations with foreign countries in a balanced and stabilising way on the basis of mutual trust, respect and benefit. As such, Thailand will give priority to its strategic development partners to meet the UN sustainable development goals.

Secondly, Thailand will strengthen Asean solidarity and cooperation in all three pillars: political and security, economic, and socio-cultural. Under its chairmanship, Thailand has promoted cooperation among Asean members and their dialogue partners to advance sustainable development and strengthen Asean centrality in promoting peace and sustainable progress in the region.

Thirdly, the government will promote economic and cultural relations under cooperative frameworks to widen opportunities for trade, investment, innovation and know-how exchanges with all countries -- including those in Europe, the Middle East and South Asia. It will also support business expansion by Thai entrepreneurs, and promote greater awareness on the international stage.

Fourthly, it will promote international security cooperation to cope with non-traditional security threats, such as cybersecurity, human trafficking, transnational crime, maritime safety, internal displacement, and trans-border problems that impact human security and the Thai way of life.

Last but not least, Thailand will promote the interests of Thai workers, the private sector and the Thai diaspora by enhancing their roles to increase the country's profile.

When compared to Thailand's previous foreign policy statements, the current one is relatively humble and realistic, without the oft-cited desire to promote democracy and human rights as in the 1990s. Today, Thailand sees itself as a "bridge-builder", connecting its partners to one another.

All things considered, the longevity of the Prayut administration, or any future government for that matter -- a central problem in Thai politics since 1932 -- will matter less now. In the past, policies come and go along with the government that proposed them. Now, governments can still come and go, but the existence of a long-term national strategy will ensure that policies are here to stay.

Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs.