ISLAMABAD—President Donald Trump’s efforts to reboot U.S.-Pakistan relations as part of his new Afghanistan strategy face a potential challenge because of the rising fortunes of a popular politician who is a fierce critic of U.S. policy.

Pakistan’s political path took a twist in recent months with the ascendancy of charismatic sports-star-turned-politician Imran Khan. The fervent opponent of the U.S. war on terror used the courts to oust Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in July and is looking to use the momentum from that legal victory to propel him to power.

Mr. Khan has been on the political scene for two decades leading a small but vocal party opposed to what he views as the crooked political dynasties of Mr. Sharif and the other established party.

President Trump outlined his new stance to combat terrorism in Afghanistan on Monday night, saying that U.S. troops will continue to stay in the region and that the fight will only become more intense. The WSJ's Gerald F. Seib gives us three takeaways from the speech. Photo: Getty

Mr. Sharif’s removal has weakened the ruling party and thrust Mr. Khan and his Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party into real contention in elections due within the next year.

Mr. Khan’s surge is already shaping the political terrain by, among other things, pushing opinion in Pakistan more sharply against the country’s close security ties to the U.S. He advocates a sharp break with the U.S. antiterror alliance, spurning aid that he has said comes with conditions that have proved too costly for Pakistan.


Mr. Khan’s stance puts him at odds with Washington’s new Afghanistan strategy of sending in more soldiers and pressuring Pakistan to take action against insurgents that use its soil as a sanctuary. Mr. Khan views the war on terror as the U.S.’s war, not Pakistan’s fight. And he has said the U.S. is blaming Pakistan for what he calls its “deeply flawed and failed Afghan policy.”

Mr. Khan has argued that far from harboring terrorist groups, Pakistan has fought a costly battle against them and received little credit from the West for its efforts.

“To expect Pakistan to do more killing on behalf of the Americans is not an option we should take. I think we have already suffered enough in this country,” Mr. Khan said in an interview. “It’s not really an alliance. Basically America pays Pakistan to do its dirty work.”

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Mr. Khan, 64 years old, said the antiterror partnership with Washington has “caused disaster in Pakistan” by sparking a violent backlash at home.


He has called for a phased withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan and U.S. talks with the Taliban. Mr. Khan said that the Taliban, rather than a Pakistan-sponsored group, “is an indigenous movement,” driven by opposition to the U.S. presence and the collateral damage that it causes, so “the solution is not by telling Pakistan to do more.”

Even now, long before the election, Mr. Khan’s growing influence has the potential to shape Pakistan’s stance on issues of high importance to the U.S.: Afghanistan policy, India relations and Islamabad’s attitude to terrorist groups U.S. officials say operate from within Pakistan.

In 2014, Mr. Khan forced Islamabad to attempt peace talks with the Pakistani Taliban.

Pakistan’s leadership has long complained that the U.S. approach to the region doesn’t take into account its security fears and doesn’t acknowledge Pakistan’s efforts to root out terrorists. Yet the political and military consensus has been to continue accepting U.S. aid and maintain some level of cooperation with U.S. efforts in Afghanistan.


Mr. Sharif, the three-time prime minister dismissed by the Supreme Court last month, faces a corruption trial over family property holdings in London. He has denied any wrongdoing. His Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) party remains in office. Political analysts said Mr. Sharif’s trial, due to begin within weeks, will likely provide a regular drip of bad news for his party, which is built around him and his family.

Mr. Khan, meanwhile, has touted the ouster as a major advance for democracy in Pakistan because it was a court and not the coup-prone military that pushed Mr. Sharif from office.

“This is the biggest step towards democratic evolution,” said Mr. Khan, speaking at his serene hilltop home on the outskirts of Islamabad. “Ideology had disappeared from politics. It was just a question of who could offer more money. That’s how Nawaz Sharif’s politics prospered. It was a kleptocracy.”

Mr. Khan’s critics, however, accuse him of receiving support from the military, an allegation he and the armed forces deny.


Mr. Khan’s party promises clean government and better public services, a message that resonates with the more educated segment of Pakistan’s emerging middle class.

The electoral impact of Mr. Sharif’s removal could become clearer next month in a by-election over his vacated parliamentary seat in his hometown of Lahore. There, Mr. Khan’s party is fielding a middle-class professional woman—the embodiment of the party’s crusade against dynastic politics. Against her is Mr. Sharif’s wife, Kulsoom, who has never served in Parliament before.

To gain power in next year’s elections, Mr. Khan must win big in Punjab province, Mr. Sharif’s home region where his party has a formidable political machine. Mr. Khan would need a swing of some 15% of the vote, from the 2013 election result, to win half the seats in Punjab, according to Umair Javed, a doctoral researcher at the London School of Economics. That wouldn’t give him a majority in Parliament but could put him in a position to form a coalition government.

In a sign of the government’s nervousness, the cabinet reconstituted after Mr. Sharif’s departure has been much expanded to reward more lawmakers. Mr. Sharif’s brother, Shehbaz, who was initially slated to succeed him, is being kept as chief minister of Punjab to shore up the base, party officials said.

Abid Suleri, executive director of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, an independent think tank in Islamabad, said that about a third of the electorate is undecided and up for grabs.

“A moral victor for Imran Khan is being perceived,” Mr. Suleri said. “Now it depends on how much [Mr. Sharif’s] PML-N has been weakened.”

Supporters of Pakistani cricketer-turned-opposition leader Imran Khan attend an antigovernement rally in Quetta on May 19. Photo: banaras khan/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

A national survey in April by Gallup Pakistan before Mr. Sharif’s ouster, gave his party an 11-point lead over Mr. Khan’s. Asad Umar, a senior member of Mr. Khan’s party, said a series of by-elections in recent months showed that PTI has sharply closed the gap on Mr. Sharif’s party.

Mr. Khan said he aims to be a prime minister like Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore or Mahathir Mohamad in Malaysia—a leader whose vision transforms a nation “because we saw in our own lifetimes how these countries changed.” he said.

“If you want to defeat the status quo, which is very entrenched in Pakistan, then there’s only one way you can defeat it and that’s through public power,” Mr. Khan said.

Write to Saeed Shah at saeed.shah@wsj.com