We all know what happened on that magical night. And luckily for my dad, there were no monkeys.

He also knew a lot more about Florida State then either of us did. He knew FSU was coached by the legendary Bobby Bowden. He knew that FSU had won a national title just 3 seasons prior. He knew that Louisville football and Florida State football had little to nothing in common when it came to the overall historical success of each program. He knew that FSU was ranked in the top 5 and was favored by 15 on the road. So, when my older brother asked him, “Hey Dad, do you think we’ll beat Florida State?,” my dad understandably quipped, “Michael, if we beat Florida State monkeys will fly out of my ass.”

SEPTEMBER 29th, 2002 – My brother and I were huddled around the television with our dad getting ready to watch Louisville face #4 Florida State in a monsoon. We were little kids at the time, and my dad knew the forecast was awful that evening, so he (wisely) decided against taking his small children to the game.

Thinking about the game coming up this weekend I find myself considering a lot of the same things that my dad did 17 years ago. The #3 ranked, reigning national champion Clemson Tigers are coming to town. The same Clemson that’s coached by Dabo Swinney and Brent Venables. The same Clemson that has won two of the last three College Football Playoffs. The same Clemson that vaporized Louisville last year by 61 points. The same Clemson that is favored by 24 points this weekend.

But before I started making bold claims like my dad regretfully did, I wanted to see if Louisville really does stand a chance Saturday.

When Scott Satterfield was at Appalachian State, they were considered the plucky Sun Belt team that could play with anyone despite their lack of talent and size. They also weren’t strangers to scheduling tough. In his five seasons with App St at the FBS level they faced historic programs like Michigan, Clemson, Tennessee, Georgia, and Penn State, all on the road. Outside of those teams, there were only two other times (both in App’s first season at the FBS level) where the Mountaineers were at least two-touchdown underdogs.

Only once did App State win one of those games, and it was against an Arkansas State that would finish 7-6.

In Satterfield’s 8 games at the FBS level as at least two-touchdown dogs, including Notre Dame this season, his teams are 1-7 and have been outscored 290 to 152. Throw out the two-touchdown rule and Satterfield is only 5-12 as an underdog. And even against the spread, Satterfield’s teams are just 9-8.

While the majority of the games included in these records come from a Sun Belt team taking on superior Power 5 teams, the numbers are still not highly encouraging.

However! There is a silver lining. Only three times since Satterfield has coached at the FBS level have his teams been at or greater than 21-point underdogs. The first of which was App’s first game as FBS members where Michigan avenged the Greatest Upset in College Football History by crushing App State 52-14. But where things get interesting is that in the last two games, both of them have gone to overtime against greater competition.

I am not expecting a lot from the game this weekend. The odds are figuratively and literally stacked against us. There is no better measuring stick than playing the defending national champions, and we’ll learn a lot about this team regardless of the end result. Hell, even if we just play a competitive game for four quarters and give Clemson a scare I’ll be ecstatic.

But if we somehow beat this Clemson team in Satterfield’s first season at the helm, monkeys will fly out of my ass.