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Ron Schwane/Associated Press

This is admittedly not a surprise pick.

Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield completed 68.4 percent of his passes and threw 19 touchdowns to eight interceptions while posting a 106.2 passer rating in the second half of his uneven but magnificent rookie season. With Odell Beckham Jr. joining his pass-catching corps, Mayfield is primed to explode.

Other young quarterbacks could follow suit, but each of them have more obvious warts. New York Jets sophomore Sam Darnold is a little further behind in his development and has a weaker supporting cast. Ditto for Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens.

New Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians is a magician, but Jameis Winston made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, so the interception-happy 25-year-old doesn't qualify here. Marcus Mariota of the Tennessee Titans remains untrustworthy, and we'll need to see how San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo bounces back from a major knee injury.

In other words, Mayfield is the obvious choice here. And while the bar might be set terrifyingly high for someone with 14 career starts under his belt, the stars do appear to be aligned for the 24-year-old as he enters his first full season as an NFL starter.