On election night in 2001 I stood glumly at the count for Harrow West and watched the votes pile up for my opponent. I had been fighting a marginal seat, but was swept away. The Conservatives had registered one of their worst results since 1832. The parliamentary party would be one of the smallest in its history and the leader was about to resign. As I planned the traditional speech of the defeated candidate, one of my party workers approached me. “Do you think we might have won if we’d attached a loudhailer to your car?” he asked.

Attributing electoral triumph or disaster to minor aspects of campaign organisation is a common error of political analysis. Those who use it work backwards. If I had