Reds' Bryan Price: Spring stats can be deceiving

GOODYEAR, Ariz. — When the Reds open Cactus League play Tuesday at Goodyear Ballpark against the Indians at 3:05 p.m., the team can start looking forward to the 2015 season and just exactly who will be on the team.

But don't expect to be able to pick out the stars of 2015 based on what's done in Arizona — or at least Bryan Price won't.

"You know how it works out here," Price said on Monday morning. "Pitchers are going to have games with the conditions — the hard infield, the light air, the high sky, working with catchers that you're not used to throwing to — that all can lead to an environment where runs are scored. Not to mention the competition out here is outstanding.

"We have to do a really good job as a staff in evaluating our players from what we see in all different areas — not just linescores. A lot of times if you base it on statistics, the guys you thought were going to make the club wouldn't. I'm not going to say throw it out the window. What we have to see is command, ability to pitch — get secondary pitches over behind in the count, how our guys compete, hold runners, and try to find out who are the best guys to make our club."

That leads us to the lessons of spring training past:

• 2014: Chris Heisey tied for spring lead with six home runs; Roger Bernadina's slash line: .413/.518/.739 (.153/.286/.203 in regular season).

• 2013: Cesar Izturis hit .333/.387/.474 in spring, .209/.259/.271 in the regular season; Jose Arredondo was 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 10 strikeouts in 12.2 innings, but was 2-2 with a 5.87 ERA with Triple-A Louisville and was suspended and released during the season.

• 2012: Paul Janish hit .310/.412/.500 in spring, but then hit .237/.332/.391 at Triple-A Louisville before being traded to Atlanta in July of that same year. Joey Votto, who was having a better season than he did in his MVP year before he got hurt, hit just .264 in spring.

• 2011: Nobody dominated the league like Dave Sappelt, who hit .564/.571/.974 with three homers that spring. Sappelt had a good year in Louisville, hitting .324/.365/.481 with seven homers and then .243/.289/.318 in 38 games with the Reds. He was traded to the Cubs that offseason. He is currently a free agent. Converted infielder Jerry Gil appeared in seven games as a reliever that spring and didn't give up a run. Gil never made it to the majors as a pitcher and last pitched in affiliated baseball in 2013 for Cleveland's Triple-A team.

• 2010: Wladimir Balentien hit .327/.353/.571 in spring, and hit well at Triple-A Louisville that season (.282/.337/.536), but hasn't played in the big leagues since 2009. He went to Japan in 2011 and has hit 153 home runs in four seasons there, including 60 in 2013. The Reds home run leaders that spring were Jonny Gomes (5), Drew Stubbs (5) and Laynce Nix (4) — the regular-season home run leaders were Votto (37), Jay Bruce (25) and Stubbs (22).

Other spring training names that should sound familiar are: Darnell McDonald (2009), Andy Green (2008), Josh Hamilton (2007 — OK, he did turn out to be pretty good) and Andy Abad (2006).