All Contents Copyright © 2011 Jeff Sagarin tm . All rights reserved. 2011 Major League Soccer ratings through results of NOVEMBER 20 SUNDAY - MLS Cup (Final Ratings) this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom (2) DIVISION AVERAGES (listed top-to-bottom) (3) teams listed by DIVISIONS (listed top-to-bottom within divisions) The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50% of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings. To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be favored by 1.08 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89 Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35 NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below. In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season. The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these rating's top 4 and top 8 respectively. For the first few weeks of the season, the starting ratings have weight in the process(BAYESIAN), but once the teams are all CONNECTED, then the starting ratings are no longer used and all teams are started equal and the ratings are then done in an UNBIASED manner from that point on. The teams are now UN-CONNECTED and the ratings are BAYESIAN. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In ELO CHESS , only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence, which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS , in which the score margin is the only thing that matters. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR , BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR of future games. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR) . _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Major League Soccer 2011 through games of November 20 Sunday - MLS Cup (Final Ratings) HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.49 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 4 | VS top 8 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 1 Los Angeles Galaxy = 2.81 23 5 10 1.95( 18) 4 1 2 | 11 3 4 | 2.84 1 | 2.78 1 2 Seattle Sounders FC = 2.42 19 8 9 1.99( 16) 2 2 2 | 6 6 4 | 2.47 2 | 2.37 2 3 Houston Dynamo = 2.30 15 10 13 2.04( 3) 3 3 2 | 6 4 8 | 2.35 3 | 2.27 4 4 Sporting Kansas City = 2.27 15 10 12 1.98( 17) 1 4 2 | 3 7 5 | 2.24 4 | 2.31 3 5 Real Salt Lake = 2.22 16 13 8 2.04( 2) 4 6 1 | 7 7 3 | 2.18 5 | 2.25 6 6 New York Red Bulls = 2.17 11 10 16 2.05( 1) 3 4 3 | 4 7 5 | 2.10 6 | 2.25 5 7 Philadelphia Union = 2.02 11 10 15 2.01( 8) 2 3 5 | 4 5 7 | 1.99 10 | 2.06 7 8 Chicago Fire = 2.02 9 9 16 2.00( 14) 1 3 4 | 2 4 8 | 2.00 9 | 2.04 8 9 FC Dallas = 2.00 15 13 7 1.99( 15) 3 4 1 | 5 7 5 | 2.02 8 | 1.98 9 10 Colorado Rapids = 1.98 13 11 13 2.00( 13) 1 6 3 | 3 8 7 | 2.04 7 | 1.93 10 Major League Soccer 2011 through games of November 20 Sunday - MLS Cup (Final Ratings) HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.49 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 4 | VS top 8 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 11 Columbus Crew = 1.93 13 14 8 2.02( 7) 2 4 2 | 5 7 4 | 1.93 11 | 1.93 11 12 D.C. United = 1.87 9 13 12 2.01( 12) 1 4 3 | 3 7 6 | 1.82 13 | 1.92 12 13 Portland Timbers = 1.85 11 14 9 2.01( 11) 1 6 1 | 5 7 4 | 1.86 12 | 1.84 14 14 San Jose Earthquakes = 1.81 8 12 14 2.01( 10) 1 4 3 | 2 8 6 | 1.82 14 | 1.80 15 15 Chivas USA = 1.80 8 14 12 2.01( 9) 1 5 2 | 2 9 5 | 1.72 15 | 1.86 13 16 Toronto FC = 1.60 6 13 15 2.02( 6) 1 4 3 | 2 8 6 | 1.68 16 | 1.48 17 17 New England Revolution = 1.49 5 16 13 2.03( 5) 1 4 3 | 1 8 7 | 1.49 17 | 1.49 16 18 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 1.44 6 18 10 2.03( 4) 1 5 2 | 4 7 5 | 1.44 18 | 1.44 18 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Conference Rankings There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the "simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",) and the WIN50%. The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s) in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go away from the middle in either direction, up or down. This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The "simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally no matter where they are relative to the middle. Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed. 4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1 5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1 6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1 7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1 8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1 9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean". The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location. CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 WEST = 2.00 2.04 ( 1) 9 2.03 ( 1) 2 EAST = 1.98 1.96 ( 2) 9 1.97 ( 2) CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 2 EAST = 1.98 1.96 ( 2) 9 1.97 ( 2) 1 WEST = 2.00 2.04 ( 1) 9 2.03 ( 1) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________ By Conference _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 EAST = 1.98 1.96 ( 2) TEAMS= 9 1.97 ( 2) Major League Soccer 2011 through games of November 20 Sunday - MLS Cup (Final Ratings) HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.49 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 4 | VS top 8 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 3 Houston Dynamo = 2.30 15 10 13 2.04( 3) 3 3 2 | 6 4 8 | 2.35 3 | 2.27 4 4 Sporting Kansas City = 2.27 15 10 12 1.98( 17) 1 4 2 | 3 7 5 | 2.24 4 | 2.31 3 6 New York Red Bulls = 2.17 11 10 16 2.05( 1) 3 4 3 | 4 7 5 | 2.10 6 | 2.25 5 7 Philadelphia Union = 2.02 11 10 15 2.01( 8) 2 3 5 | 4 5 7 | 1.99 10 | 2.06 7 8 Chicago Fire = 2.02 9 9 16 2.00( 14) 1 3 4 | 2 4 8 | 2.00 9 | 2.04 8 11 Columbus Crew = 1.93 13 14 8 2.02( 7) 2 4 2 | 5 7 4 | 1.93 11 | 1.93 11 12 D.C. United = 1.87 9 13 12 2.01( 12) 1 4 3 | 3 7 6 | 1.82 13 | 1.92 12 16 Toronto FC = 1.60 6 13 15 2.02( 6) 1 4 3 | 2 8 6 | 1.68 16 | 1.48 17 17 New England Revolution = 1.49 5 16 13 2.03( 5) 1 4 3 | 1 8 7 | 1.49 17 | 1.49 16 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 WEST = 2.00 2.04 ( 1) TEAMS= 9 2.03 ( 1) Major League Soccer 2011 through games of November 20 Sunday - MLS Cup (Final Ratings) HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.49 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 4 | VS top 8 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 1 Los Angeles Galaxy = 2.81 23 5 10 1.95( 18) 4 1 2 | 11 3 4 | 2.84 1 | 2.78 1 2 Seattle Sounders FC = 2.42 19 8 9 1.99( 16) 2 2 2 | 6 6 4 | 2.47 2 | 2.37 2 5 Real Salt Lake = 2.22 16 13 8 2.04( 2) 4 6 1 | 7 7 3 | 2.18 5 | 2.25 6 9 FC Dallas = 2.00 15 13 7 1.99( 15) 3 4 1 | 5 7 5 | 2.02 8 | 1.98 9 10 Colorado Rapids = 1.98 13 11 13 2.00( 13) 1 6 3 | 3 8 7 | 2.04 7 | 1.93 10 13 Portland Timbers = 1.85 11 14 9 2.01( 11) 1 6 1 | 5 7 4 | 1.86 12 | 1.84 14 14 San Jose Earthquakes = 1.81 8 12 14 2.01( 10) 1 4 3 | 2 8 6 | 1.82 14 | 1.80 15 15 Chivas USA = 1.80 8 14 12 2.01( 9) 1 5 2 | 2 9 5 | 1.72 15 | 1.86 13 18 Vancouver Whitecaps FC = 1.44 6 18 10 2.03( 4) 1 5 2 | 4 7 5 | 1.44 18 | 1.44 18 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________