Statistics regulator says govt estimate doesn’t provide a complete picture on students leaving Britain

The British government’s insistence that a substantial number of non-EU students overstay their visa faced further questions on Thursday, as the statistics regulator warned that estimates did not “bear the weight that is put on it in public debate”.

The government’s contention that large numbers of students overstay their visas is one of the reasons it has insisted on keeping students in the net migration figure despite pressure from universities, the House of Lords, and even some members of its own Cabinet to remove them from the figures.

“This estimate should add clarity on the pattern of student migration in the U.K., but instead, it creates doubts by not providing a complete and coherent picture of former-student emigration, since these figures alone do not provide information on all the different outcomes for international students,” wrote Ed Humpherson, the director general of regulation at the Office for Statistics Regulation, in a report published on Thursday, which called on the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to report the data it collected as “experimental” data.

“The estimate may not provide a complete and coherent picture of former-student emigration,” said the report, which went over reasons for why the current method used for gathering the data could be underestimating the number of students leaving Britain.

The government had been relying on International Passenger Survey (IPS) data gathered at airports and other departure points, which is published by the ONS. Its most recent estimates suggested that as many as 90,000 non-EU students could be overstaying their visa.

“This is a bombshell report… I feel completely vindicated — this is something I’ve been saying non-stop… We are not in control of our borders and rely on the International Passengers Survey, which has a number with its methodology including missing out on certain flights that students may be travelling on,” said Lord Karan Bilimoria, the founder of Cobra Beer, and a cross-bench member of the House of Lords, who has long been campaigning on the issue of international students.

Accurate picture

Though the government has introduced some exit checks, he believes a more robust system would provide a far more accurate picture of those leaving and entering the country. He believes these more accurate figures would be likely to show far lower levels of overstayers by the IPS, but it would destroy the basis for the government’s “illogical” immigration policy.

Last year, the Times reported that a government study that showed just 1,500 individuals, or 1% of international students, overstay their visa had been buried as it threatened to “undermine [Prime Minister] Theresa May’s case for a crackdown on foreign student recruitment.

The number of Indian students fell to 16,745 in the year 2015-16 from 29,900 in 2011-12. While the government believes much of this is a result of the crackdown on bogus educational establishment, many believe that students are put off by a mix of factors, including the limited opportunities to work once the course is over.