2016 Colorado Presidential and US Senate Survey Results



Magellan Strategies has released the results of a live landline and cell phone survey of 500 likely 2016 general election voters in Colorado. The interviews were conducted October 12th to 13th, and the survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval.

Presidential Ballot Test

Our latest survey of likely Colorado voters finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 5 points, with 40% supporting Hillary Clinton and 35% support for Donald Trump. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has 12% support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein has 5% support, 2% support “some other candidate” and 6% are undecided. Comparing these results to our August 29th survey, we find support for Hillary Clinton has grown by 6 points among Republican voters, and by 5 points among voters 65 and older, a very Republican-leaning group. However, it appears Hillary Clinton is being held back from opening up a larger lead over Donald Trump by a 2-point bump in support for Jill Stein among all voters and a 5-point increase among Democrat voters. Gary Johnson also continues to show 20% support among voters aged 44 and under, a Democrat leaning voter subgroup. Since our August survey, support for Donald Trump has declined by 5 points among Republican voters, 6 points among female voters and 2 points among seniors. The following table shows the ballot test results by voter subgroup.

Presidential Ballot Test by Voter Subgroup

Presidential Candidate Image Ratings

Among all voters, we find a 3-point decline in Hillary Clinton’s favorable rating from 40% to 37% since our August survey and a 7-point decline in Donald Trump’s favorability rating, dropping from 34% to 27%. Looking closer at the Republican voter subgroups, we see the bottom falling out of Donald Trump’s favorability rating with a 14-point decline among Republican voters, and a 15-point decline among senior voters aged 65 and older.

Hillary Clinton Image Rating by Voter Subgroup

Donald Trump Image Rating by Voter Subgroup

Implications for Down Ballot Republicans Who Do Not Support Donald Trump

To measure apparent frustrations among Donald Trump supporters toward Republicans that will not support his campaign, we asked Donald Trump supporters the following question:

“As a Donald Trump supporter, is there a chance that you will only vote for Donald Trump and no other Republican candidates, knowing that some Republicans in Washington and Colorado no longer support Donald Trump’s campaign?”

Among all 173 Donald Trump supporters, 59% responded yes, 33% responded no and 8% of voters were undecided. This data clearly demonstrates the difficult challenge down ballot Republican candidates are facing this cycle among members of their own political party. The margin of error for this question is +/- 7.41%.

U.S. Senate Ballot Test

Among all respondents, Democrat Michael Bennet currently has a 15-point lead over Republican Darryl Glenn, 47% to 32%. Green Party candidate Arn Menconi has 4% support, Libertarian candidate Lily Tang Williams has 3% support, 2% support “some other candidate” and 12% are undecided. Since our August survey, support for Michael Bennet among all voters has declined 1-point, from 48% to 47%, and support for Darryl Glenn has declined by 6 points, 38% to 32%. Similar to the Presidential ballot test, we find an increase in support for the Democratic candidate among Republican voters, with Michael Bennett’s support growing by 8 points among Republicans and 3 points among seniors. We also see a 14-point drop in support for Darryl Glenn among Republican voters. Finally, the percent of voters that are undecided has increased by 5 points. The following table shows the US Senate ballot test by voter subgroup.

U.S. Senate Ballot Test by Voter Subgroup

Summary

This survey finds a 5-point bump in support for Green Party candidate Jill Stein among Democratic voters. We question if these voters are former Bernie Sanders supporters who are just not ready to vote for Hillary Clinton, or if this is an outlier with our random sample interviewing a few more Green Party-leaning voters than normal. We were not surprised to find a 6% increase in support for Hillary Clinton among Republican voters and a 5% increase in support for Hillary Clinton among seniors (voters 65 and older) compared to our August survey.

The now-infamous 2005 videotape of Donald Trump has caused tremendous damage to his favorability rating, which has dropped 14 points among Republicans and 15 points among seniors. There is also evidence in the survey that the videotape has hurt down-ballot Republican candidates. US Senate candidate Darryl Glenn’s support has dropped 14 points among Republicans since August, yet there has been very little paid media coming from his campaign. The question is, are these survey results the early warning signs of moderate Republican voters simply refusing to support these two individual candidates, or the start of a larger exodus of Republican voters away from the Republican Party completely?

We will know the answer in 20 days.

Survey Weighting Decisions

The survey results are weighted to reflect the age, gender, and party turnout demographics of the 2012 Presidential election in Colorado. For purposes of consistency in comparing this survey to the August survey, we kept the demographic weights the same. However, now that mail ballots are being sent out this week in Colorado and ballot return data can be tracked, we will likely be adjusting our likely voter demographics weights in future surveys.

Survey Sample

The survey sample was randomly drawn from a Colorado voter file among households containing at least one registered voter. The survey topline and crosstab results are included in this document. Any questions regarding this survey or our methodology should be directed to David Flaherty. He can be reached at 303-861-8585 or by email at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com.

Survey Commissioned By

This survey was not commissioned or paid for by any issue committee, campaign, individual, or independent expenditure group.

About Magellan Strategies

Magellan Strategies offers a wide array of services to candidate campaigns, ballot issue campaigns, government relations firms, trade associations, and local and county governments. Our services include polling, survey research, focus groups, voter data mining, voter data analysis, and campaign consulting and management. Our offices are located in Louisville, Colorado. To learn more about our company please visit http://www.MagellanStrategies.com or call 303-861-8585.