Wayne Rooney is coming to MLS, and he isn’t coming cheap. No one seems to have nailed down the exact financial details of his transfer quite yet, but it’s fair to say he’ll comfortably be the most expensive player D.C. United has ever signed.

United opens a new stadium this July, and it’s always been hoping to do so with a massive name to put on the marquee. Rooney certainly fits the bill as a big star that non-soccer junkies have heard of, and he should put some brand new butts in seats during the Black and Red’s first half-season at Audi Field.

But whether or not he’ll keep drawing past that point is likely to be dependent on how well both he and the team play. At the moment, both Rooney and United are in awful form. He’s also not an obvious positional fit anywhere on United’s existing roster.

D.C. United’s managing director Jason Levien, general manager Dave Kasper, and head coach Ben Olsen are well aware of these facts. But priority No. 1 was getting a marquee name that could draw new fans. Kasper and Olsen will now be tasked with reconfiguring the team around its new star. They’re going to have a tough time.

Problem No. 1: Rooney might not be good anymore

This is by no means a certainty. Rooney’s first half of the 2017-18 season was, at the very least, respectable. He scored seven non-penalty goals, including one against Manchester City and a hat trick against West Ham United. But Rooney’s second half of the season was disastrous.

Rooney before and after Xmas:



Before:

Games - 16

Goals - 10

Assists - 2

Chances created - 22

Successful att. third passes pg - 9.3

Recoveries pg - 5.4



After:

Games - 15

Goals - 0

Assists - 0

Chances created - 12

Successful att. third passes pg - 7.7

Recoveries pg - 4.5#EFC — EFC Statto (@EFC_Statto) May 8, 2018

When I said Everton should be happy to get Rooney’s contract off the books, even if they don’t collect a transfer fee, I was met with this response from SB Nation’s Everton community Royal Blue Mersey.

we are. this is basically christmas — Royal Blue Mersey (@RBMersey) May 10, 2018

Rooney was regularly substituted around the hour mark during the second half of the season, mostly because he wasn’t doing anything. That this happened in Rooney’s 16th season as a first team regular in the Premier League, and in a season where he got close to reaching 800 first team professional games, is a bad sign. There was plenty of evidence that he was entering a sharp physical decline all the way back in 2015.

In terms of pro minutes on his legs, Rooney may be the oldest 32-year-old in soccer history, and D.C. United is taking a massive gamble by handing him a two-and-a-half year contract. David Villa, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Thierry Henry were all the same age as Rooney when they joined MLS, but all had fewer miles on their legs. Rooney is much more comparable to Steven Gerrard, who was regularly off the pace during his short MLS career.

Problem No. 2: D.C. United is bad

The Black and Red currently sit on the bottom of the table in MLS. It doesn’t help that they’ve played the fewest games of any team or that they’ve played five more road games than home games, but its points-per-game is still second-worst in the league. United’s shots per game is the second-worst in MLS at just 10.7.

D.C. United, as it is presently constructed, has more problems than even prime Wayne Rooney could fix. When fans who do not follow the team and who did not regularly attend games at RFK Stadium show up to watch Rooney, they’re likely to be turned off by the product on the field.

Problem No. 3: Rooney doesn’t fit the team

Rooney is a pretty specific player at this point in his career. His recent forays into central midfield haven’t been good, and he hasn’t been a true No. 9 since his very early 20s. He’s a second striker, at his best with a mobile striker in front of him and a couple of defensively sound midfielders behind him.

If Rooney is put into his natural spot in the starting lineup, he’s likely to displace Luciano Acosta, currently United’s most entertaining and technically proficient player.

If Rooney plays up top, he’s not going to get a lot of service. If he plays in midfield, United’s going to get even worse than it already is defensively. If he plays as a No. 10, he’s going to get frustrated with what’s around him, and United’s second-most talented player is likely to end up on the bench. It’s hard to put together a D.C. United lineup with Rooney that looks decent on paper.

OK Debbie Downer, is there any reason to believe this might work out?

Sure! Kasper has proven adept at unearthing undervalued gems in the past. That he managed to put a competitive team on the field for several years while operating with the smallest budget in MLS is pretty incredible. It’s not difficult to envision a scenario in which he trades for a couple of players who currently occupy bench roles for other teams, and they go on to be solid starters for United. He’s done it before.

Kasper could also create cap space, free up international slots, and farm some Allocation Money (received when selling players and often used to buy down the salary cap value of contracts, for the uninitiated) to bring in more talented players from outside MLS. If Rooney takes Acosta’s spot, it might make sense to sell Acosta and reinvest the money in another position. United’s second-top earner after Rooney, Zoltan Steiber, is likely to have an avenue to return to Europe if he wants to. United has reportedly received seven-figure offers for 18-year-old wonderkid Chris Durkin.

There’s also a potential tactical silver lining. If United is committed to playing Rooney as its center forward — which MLS’s Matt Doyle seems pretty sure about — Sporting Kansas City provides a model for what might be possible. Sporting is top of the Western Conference with 32 points from 16 games, and it’s fourth in the league with 31 goals as well. It’s doing this without much of a scoring contribution from its center forwards; Diego Rubio and Khiry Shelton have just five goals between them.

It’s difficult, but certainly not impossible, to envision a D.C. United team where Rooney plays as a false No. 9 and United plays with no true center forward, with the wingers and central midfielders running into the space he vacates. It might be a way to get Rooney and Acosta on the field at the same time, and it could reinvigorate talented, but out of form players like winger Paul Arriola and central midfielder Ian Harkes.

D.C. United could also opt to move on from Acosta and play Rooney as a No. 10, now that Darren Mattocks has found some form. United’s current center forward had a slow start to the season, but is now up to a very respectable seven goals on the year.

But an optimistic view is predicated on two things. One, that Olsen — a coach who’s used an ugly style of soccer that’s derisively referred to as Bennyball — is highly adaptable. Two, that Rooney still has plenty of gas left in the tank. The evidence for neither of those things being true is strong.

There is ultimately very little footballing argument to be made for signing Wayne Rooney over younger, more in-form players who would cost significantly less money. But D.C. United thinks it needs a name that casual fans recognize more than it needs good soccer players. That name will draw people to Audi Field, but the United brass has no idea whether or not fans will like what they see and turn into repeat customers. They’re taking an extremely high risk, extremely high potential reward gamble.