They say a week is long time in football, and that certainly seems to be the case in football recruiting. Since HPN’s first Consensus Mock Draft, much movement has occurred, including at the top of the draft.

HPN has also added three new drafts to the mix. The full list of drafts are is linked below. We haven’t listed each of their individual selections in this post, as we feel that you should visit their websites (and drive their traffic). We don’t want to be leeches.

Paige Cardona (Bound For Glory)

Knightmare (Bigfooty)

Jay Clark and Sam Landsberger (Herald Sun)

/u/pizza_of_death (/r/afl subreddit)

Brett Anderson (Inside Football/SEN)

Josh Poulter (FootyExtra)

Matt Balmer (the Roar)

Dean Bilton (ABC)

Skippos/Eloquentia (Bigfooty/Reddit)

If there are any that you think we’ve missed that should be here, email us at: hurlingpeoplenow [at] gmail [dot] com or let us know on twitter at @hurlingpeople

Round 1 Club Player Consensus pick 1 St Kilda Christian Petracca 1.2 2 Melbourne Angus Brayshaw 2.3 3 Melbourne Patrick McCartin 2.6 4 Greater Western Sydney Jarrod Pickett 5.4 5 Collingwood Jayden Laverde 5.6 6 Greater Western Sydney Hugh Goddard 8.1 7 Greater Western Sydney Jordan De Goey 8.4 8 Gold Coast Liam Duggan 9.3 9 Collingwood Darcy Moore 9.0 10 Geelong Peter Wright 9.4 11 West Coast Jake Lever 9.9 12 Richmond Paul Ahern 12.2 13 Fremantle Lachie Weller 12.8 14 Adelaide Sam Durdin 13.8 15 Gold Coast Kyle Langford 14.1 16 North Melbourne Nakia Cockatoo 14.9 17 Essendon Caleb Marchbank 18.6 18 Sydney Isaac Heeney 18.0 19 Carlton Corey Ellis 19.0 20 Essendon Jarrod Garlett 19.3 21 St Kilda Tom Lamb 21.8 Round 2 Club Player Consensus pick 22 St Kilda Connor Menadue 24.7 23 Greater Western Sydney Ed Vickers-Willis 26.4 24 Greater Western Sydney Jack Steele 24.0 25 North Melbourne Brayden Maynard 26.9 26 Western Bulldogs Connor Blakely 27.3 27 Western Bulldogs Oscar McDonald 28.0 28 Carlton Reece McKenzie 28.9 29 Gold Coast Alex Neal-Bullen 28.9 30 Collingwood Daniel Mckenzie 31.4 31 Hawthorn Dillon Viojo-Rainbow 31.5 32 West Coast Touk Miller 32.1 33 Richmond Damien Cavka 32.7 34 Fremantle Blaine Boekhorst 37.7 35 Adelaide Declan Hamilton 40.8 36 North Melbourne Toby McLean 41.7 37 Sydney Harrison Wigg 41.8 38 Sydney Jack Hiscox 38.0 39 Western Bulldogs Clem smith 42.0 40 Melbourne Daniel Howe 42.4

(In)stability at the top

Some doubt has seeped its way into the experts minds in relation to the top end of the draft, with Christian Petracca no longer being a consensus number one selection. Two of our pool have chosen Patrick McCartin as the Saints choice, with Petracca falling to the Demons at number two. However, the consensus is still that Petracca will go at number one. Another change from last time is that Angus Brayshaw has fallen out of the top three of one draft, with Peter Wright being chosen by the Demons instead, presumably for reasons of balance. Every other phantom draft has the Demons drafting McCartin and Brayshaw in some order.

The chaos tier

Below the top three, there is a near blanket over the consensus opinion of the experts. Pickett and Leverde are nearly tied at picks 4 and 5, and picks 6 through 11 are separated by very little. It appears that each expert has a slightly different opinion on the talent available, and the needs of each club. The only sure thing in this range is Darcy Moore’s selection at pick 9 by Collingwood.

The Bolters

Another recent movement has been the emergence of 21-year old Swan Districts player Blaine Boekhorst as a viable draft candidate. Early mock drafts mostly ignored him but in our most recent sample he has shot into contention, with every full phantom draft now having him being selected, mostly in the first two rounds. Four drafts place him going at pick 28 to Carlton, with others less bullish, leaving his current consensus spot at pick 34.

The stocks of both Declan Hamilton and Daniel McKenzie have also significantly risen in the last week, with both now being rated as mid second round selections.

Consensus Smokeys

A special mention should go to Ed Langdon, Jackson Nelson and Tyler Keitel. These three are the only three players selected by all of our full mock drafts, but not rated within the first two rounds overall. Langdon is rated pretty consistently a second/third round candidate, going between pick 36 and pick 48. Opinion on Nelson (34-60) and Keitel (32-69) is spread more widely.

Movers and shakers

Liam Duggan is the big mover in the earlier picks, rising from pick 14 to pick 8. Hugh Goddard has also risen a little, going from pick 10 to pick 6, and Jarrod Pickett has snuck up to pick 4 from pick 7, still heading to Homebush according to the consensus view.

By contrast, the fortunes of Peter Wright continue to slide, he’s done a reverse Goddard and fallen from pick 6 to land at pick 10. But the big slider has been Jake Lever, who has fallen from the lofty heights of pick 5 to just outside of the top 10 at pick 11.

Final Update

We will be doing a final Consensus Mock Draft on draft day, Thursday Afternoon at 4pm, so please check back here for the final take.