The Station Fire in Southern California continues to expand but at a much slower rate. Wednesday acreage was 140,000 and by Thursday it was up to 147,000 acres. But, the area considered contained increased from 22% to 38%. On Wednesday I opined about the potential for the windflow to come down from the mountains, cause compressional warming and drying and hamper the efforts. I had thought about that potential from the circulation from Jimena, though I knew that Jimena was probably a shade too far south for any real effects. Well, they did get some down slope winds on Wednesday night that cause flair ups and headaches for the fire fighting efforts, though I cannot say that Jimena had anything to do with it nor is it safe to suggest that any such occurence would be a result of Jimena as the storm continues to wind down. Nevertheless, there is still over 60% of the Station Fire not under control of containment.

The California Emergency Management Interactive Fire Map has details and locations of several brushfires around the state. Wildfire Incident Reports continue to come in on an almost hourly basis. There is another crisis developing indirectly due to the wildfires…that is that unscrupulous folks are creating malware to infect the computers of people looking for California Wildfire information. So, beware…only go to known sites. Here is a known site for you…the Los Angeles Times Photo Gallery shows recent photos from the fires. I’m noting that there is a change in the subject matter as we are now seeing more and more of the aftermath and devastation following the fires and less of the fires themselves. At right is an image from the LA Times of Arnold visiting what is left of a home. Typically, its merely a foundation and a fireplace.

Hurricane Jimena came ashore as a dying hurricane. It was not a major hurricane at landfall as the cold waters off the west coast of Baja California took its toll. Right now the heavy rain and thunderstorms is displaced well to the east of the center over the Mexican mainland. It’s not surprising that its kinda meandering about as the models were going for a northeastward track into New Mexico and then a due west course into the Pacific where it would get killed by the cold water. That sort of flip-flop often is indicative of a pattern that reflects weak steering current. And that appears to be the case. As mentioned previously, it is a downward cycle of its life, is expected to drift southwest and is just so far south, its doubtful that there will be much significant effect for the firefighting in California, though maybe some adverse easterly breezes may be produced, especially at night.

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009

800 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2009

MICROWAVE PASSES FROM TRMM AND AMSR-E HAVE HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER

OF JIMENA THIS MORNING…WHICH APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST

COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR HAS CAUSED ALMOST ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED

EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN

MAINLAND MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT AFTER

CONSIDERING THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND ASSUMING A

GRADUAL REDUCTION OF THE WINDS.

STRONG SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE

CONTINUED WEAKENING OF JIMENA…AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS

EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY…AND

BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME

WEAK…WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/4. A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS JIMENA BECOMES A SHALLOW

SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST

AND BAM SHALLOW.

THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH JIMENA IS HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH

FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE…TROPICAL STORM

WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 27.9N 112.6W 40 KT

12HR VT 04/0000Z 28.1N 112.9W 30 KT…INLAND

24HR VT 04/1200Z 28.0N 113.5W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW

36HR VT 05/0000Z 27.6N 114.1W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW

48HR VT 05/1200Z 27.2N 114.6W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW

72HR VT 06/1200Z…DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE