Birkett: Predicting the Lions' 53-man roster

This is the most agonizing time of the year for NFL coaches and players, when the preseason finally ends and 22 players per team are out of a job.

The Lions have until 4 p.m. Saturday to set their initial 53-man roster, and they have some especially tough decisions this year at running back, receiver and along both lines.

"We haven't decided anything yet," Lions coach Jim Caldwell said after Thursday's 17-10 exhibition win over the Buffalo Bills. "Like I said, we'll weigh everything. We'll talk it out. This next 48 hours is going to be agonizing, and so we do our due diligence, we take our time and make certain we look at every aspect. And then some of these guys, obviously, are going to come out of this game. You've got to look at them from a health and physical standpoint, as well. All of that has to be taken into consideration, so there are a lot of things to be examined."

Here's a best guess at how the Lions will set their initial roster, knowing full well the final decision will be shaped by discussions still to come. (Note: Players with an asterisk are predicted to wind up on the Lions' practice squad.)

Quarterback (3)

In: Matthew Stafford, Dan Orlovsky, Kellen Moore

Say what: The pecking order appears to be set for the second straight year, with Orlovsky and Moore, in that order, backing up Stafford. Moore played well in Thursday's preseason finale, and though some have suggested that the Lions would be better off keeping two quarterbacks, that's not Martin Mayhew's M.O. as general manager.

Running back/fullback (6)

In: Joique Bell, Ameer Abdullah, Theo Riddick, Zach Zenner, George Winn, Michael Burton

Out: Emil Igwenagu*

Say what: It'd be a highly unusual move to keep six running backs, but Winn, the Southfield native, is one of the Lions' best special teams players and can have a role on all four units. Zenner led the NFL in rushing yards this preseason and likely would be claimed if the Lions exposed him to waivers. It's not an easy call at fullback, where Igwenagu is the more physical of the options. But the Lions spent a fifth-round pick on Burton, and that's the trump card here.

Wide receiver (5)

In: Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Corey Fuller, Lance Moore, Jeremy Ross

Out: TJ Jones*, Greg Salas

Say what: The Lions could go shorthanded here, considering that their Nos. 3-7 receivers are pretty interchangeable. But most likely, they keep five, with Ross, Jones and Salas battling for one spot. Salas appears to have avoided major injury to his left knee, but the fact that he left Thursday's game and could miss some time won't help his chances. Jones played well against the Bills and impressed as a punt returner, but Ross' special teams value can't be overlooked.

Tight end (3)

In: Eric Ebron, Brandon Pettigrew, Tim Wright

Out: Joseph Fauria, Casey Pierce*

Say what: The Lions have a decision to make between Fauria and Wright, whom they acquired in a trade earlier this week. Fauria is a trade candidate and should have value to someone as a big red-zone threat with soft hands, but his time with the Lions appears to be over. Wright made no significant contributions Thursday, but the Lions couldn't have expected any two days after the trade.

Offensive line (8)

In: Riley Reiff, Laken Tomlinson, Travis Swanson, Larry Warford, LaAdrian Waddle, Cornelius Lucas, Manny Ramirez, Taylor Boggs

Out: Corey Robinson*, Torrian Wilson*, Braxston Cave, Xavier Proctor*, Joe Madsen, Al Bond

Say what: Typically, teams keep nine offensive linemen, with two backup tackles and two backup interior linemen, but if Winn is going to make the roster as a sixth running back, something has to give somewhere. There are some injury concerns up front that could lead to both Boggs and Robinson winning jobs. Warford was still walking with a limp after Thursday's game, and Waddle hasn't played yet this summer, coming off of ACL surgery. Robinson, a seventh-round pick, should be able to slide through to the practice squad.

Defensive line (9)

In: Ziggy Ansah, Jason Jones, Darryl Tapp, Devin Taylor, Haloti Ngata, Tyrunn Walker, Caraun Reid, Gabe Wright, Phillip Hunt

Out: Jermelle Cudjo, Jerel Worthy, Kerry Hyder*, Corey Wootton, Larry Webster*

Say what: Hunt and Cudjo are interchangeable as the ninth lineman, but defensive ends (because of their position and special teams ability) have more value, so Hunt gets the nod. The wild card: Reid and Ngata both are returning from injuries. If there's a chance Reid won't make it to next week's season opener, it would make sense to keep Cudjo around. This is a position the Lions could look to upgrade via waivers.

Linebacker (6)

In: DeAndre Levy, Stephen Tulloch, Tahir Whitehead, Kyle Van Noy, Travis Lewis, Josh Bynes

Out: Julian Stanford, Brandon Copeland*

Say what: The Lions appear set with their top six linebackers, and both Stanford's and Copeland's primary value comes on special teams. Copeland got plenty of run with the top coverage units and is a good candidate for a practice-squad promotion later in the year.

Defensive back (10)

In: Darius Slay, Rashean Mathis, James Ihedigbo, Glover Quin, Josh Wilson, Alex Carter, Quandre Diggs, Nevin Lawson, Don Carey, Isa Abdul-Quddus

Out: Isaiah Johnson*, Nate Ness, Brian Suite, Crezdon Butler

Say what: Defensive backs seem to get injured at a higher rate than any other position, and the Lions have a number of young players in the secondary who are worth keeping. Carter, Lawson and Diggs should start the season as backups or inactive. Johnson can make a case for a roster spot as a fifth safety, but he's most likely headed to the practice squad.

Specialists (3)

In: Sam Martin, Matt Prater, Don Muhlbach

Say what: Nothing to debate here.

Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.

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