The first chapter of this season’s fantasy baseball choose-your-own-adventure gamebook is over.

Some managed to find the path that has them at the top of the mountain looking down at everyone below, smiling an evil grin thinking they’re going to be anointed King of Fantasy Land. Others made decisions, or took gambles, that forced them to struggle and fight to overcome whatever beasts lurk on the roads less traveled.

Now, it is now time to figure out which path to take in the second half.

Do you stick with what has worked for thus far? Or, do you find a few fresh faces who might possess secrets of how to overcome all that lies ahead in the next chapter?

The most important thing to remember is this: Things that worked on the first half don’t automatically bring success in the next half. Nothing ever is as it seems. Danger always is lurking, and often it is right under your nose.

Rangers lefty Mike Minor was one of the best late-round fliers/waiver pickups of the first half after going 8-4 with a 2.54 ERA, the fifth-best mark in the majors entering the second stanza. He also ranked 12th in opponent average (.218) and allowed three earned runs or less in 16 of his 18 starts.

The 31-year-old entered his start Saturday having not lost since May 30, going 3-0 with a 2.18 ERA, 34 strikeouts, 10 walks and a .174 opponent average and .559 OPS over his past six starts.

This is incredible fantasy production from a guy who entered the season as the 96th-ranked pitcher (320th overall). But now you are forced to look at everything and judge whether he is worthy of continuing to fight by your side every fifth day.

Here are three options for your next adventure with Minor:

Do you move forward with Minor as one of your best weapon to fight off the evil fantasy entities that lurk in the darkness on your quest for glory? (Hint: This is the worst option.)

Or: Do you try to upgrade your weapon in hopes another fantasy owner believes Minor is a great weapon to own? (You can try, we wish you luck.)

Or: Do you die a slow but honorable death knowing Minor was already the best weapon he could be? (You’re probably gonna end up here eventually, so get you might as well get comfy with the idea.)

Listen, if you expected Minor to be as good as he has been, there is an email address at the bottom of this column where you can send Wednesday’s Powerball numbers. Despite making his first All-Star team, he has walked 3.2 per nine innings (his highest total since 2011). He also has a 3.77 FIP and 4.42 xFIP, indicating he has had some good fortune.

During that six-start stretch talked about earlier in the story, he allowed a .198 BABIP and has a .268 BABIP for the season. He also has the third-highest strand rate (86.5 percent) in the majors.

Another major concern for Minor is the fact he hasn’t thrown more than 157 innings in a season since 2013, a year before suffering a torn labrum that forced him to miss two full years. He entered his start Saturday having already tossed 117 innings. Though he doesn’t overpower hitters with a fastball that averages between 92-93 mph, according to Brooks Baseball, it should be a concern.

Minor, who is 64-54 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.208 WHIP over the course of his career, will not be a useless pitcher the rest of the way, but red flags are being waved. He will regress. He ran into some good fortune and has helped your team get this far in this 162-game adventure. Now it is time to be careful because there is danger around every corner.

Here’s a look at some other players likely to see some regression in the second half:

Fernando Tatis Jr. missed all of May and played in just 55 first-half games, yet hit .327 with 14 homers, 46 RBIs and stole 13 bases. He also strikes out 28.6 percent of the time and had a .419 BABIP, which is reason enough to think a dip in production is on its way.

Luis Castillo ended the first half ranked second in ERA (2.29) and opponent average (.169) while striking out a career-high 10.5 per nine innings (12th-best in the majors). He also ranked fifth in walks per nine (4.5), fourth in strand rate (83.2 percent) and owned a .224 BABIP, which was second lowest in the league. Those numbers, mixed with a 3.66 FIP and 3.78 xFIP, are all indicators regression is likely for the 26-year-old.

Before the break, Justin Verlander had the lowest opponent average (.168) and the best WHIP (0.81) while striking out 10.9 per nine innings and walking just 1.9 per nine. A little concerning, however, is the fact he owned a 90.7 strand rate (highest in the majors), a .181 BABIP (lowest in the majors), allowed 26 homers in the first half (two less than he allowed in all of 2018), and owned a 4.19 FIP and 3.67 xFIP. He also allowed three runs or more in all of his past six starts. He still is one of the best pitchers out there, but a further slip in production wouldn’t be surprising.

Shane Greene collected 22 saves in 24 opportunities for the Tigers while posting a career-best 1.09 ERA. A few things that don’t work in his favor include his .183 BABIP, 3.72 FIP, 3.98 xFIP and the fact he likely will be dangled as trade bait, which means his value gets diminished as he could be dealt at any time to a contender that likely already has a closer.

This is not a knock on Josh Bell, Roto Rage’s first-half MVP, because his breakout is not a fluke (.302, 27 HRs, 84 RBIs). He should remain among the top-tier first baseman, but pitchers will make adjustments, and he likely will stumble at some point in the second act. This pace is tough for anyone to maintain.

Big Hits

Andrew Cashner SP, Red Sox

Despite striking out just 18 batters, the 32-year-old has allowed just five earned runs over his past 32 innings (1.41 ERA) while going 3-1. And now he joins the Red Sox, where his chances for racking up some wins increase significantly.

Yuli Gurriel 1B/3B, Astros

Had an 11-game hit streak snapped Thursday night, but he was 18-for-45 (.400) with nine homers, 18 RBIs, 13 runs and a 1.516 OPS in that span.

Aaron Nola SP, Phillies

Over his past four starts before taking the mound Saturday, he was 2-1 with a 0.61 ERA, 34 strikeouts and a .135 opponent average.



Christian Vazquez C, Red Sox

The most added player in ESPN leagues this week hit .333 with seven homers, 19 RBIs, 15 runs and a 1.009 OPS in 17 games before the break.

Big Whiffs

Tony Wolters C, Rockies

His average dropped from .311 to .285 after going 7-for-39 (.179) with two RBIs, 10 strikeouts and a .506 OPS in 13 games before the break.

Glenn Sparkman SP, Royals

Allowed 17 earned runs over his past three starts (14²/₃ innings) while going 0-2 with a 10.43 ERA, seven strikeouts, five walks and a 1.244 OPS. He allowed seven homers and a robust .385 opponent average.

Eric Hosmer 1B, Padres

Entered the break with just three hits in his previous 28 at-bats (.107). He had two RBIs, eight strikeouts and a .250 OPS in that seven-game span.





Trevor Richards SP, Marlins

Hasn’t won since June 2, going 0-5 with a 5.51 ERA, 25-15 strikeout-walk rate and .288 opponent average over his past six starts.

Check Swings

Dinelson Lamet entered his start Friday against the Braves having made only one start since returning from Tommy John surgery and is owned in just 7.3 percent of leagues. With a career 28.9 percent strikeout percentage (11.01 per nine) while playing in a pitcher-friendly park, he has second-half sleeper potential.

Outside of one clunker in which he allowed five earned runs, Michael Pineda is 4-1 with a respectable 3.59 ERA, 49-7 strikeout-walk rate and a .227 opponent average over his past nine starts. He is available in more than 80 percent of ESPN leagues.

Aaron Sanchez update: The Blue Jays hurler entered the second half without a win since April 27 — going 0-11 with a 8.11 ERA, 50-36 strikeout-walk rate and .327 opponent average over his past 13 starts. He has allowed 12 homers, 57 runs and a .932 opponent OPS in that span. Did Vlad Guerrero Jr. use him to practice for the Home Run Derby? We already assumed Pete Alonso used the Mets’ bullpen.

Team of the Week

Kiermaier Lemons