Politics

Idaho Presidential Race: Trump 44%, Clinton 23%, Johnson 13%

Donald Trump has plateaued in Idaho, a new Idaho Politics Weekly poll shows.

But that is OK. He still leads Hillary Clinton almost 2-to-1, a just-completed survey by Dan Jones & Associates finds.

If the Nov. 8 election were today, Republican presidential candidate Trump would get 44 percent of the vote.

Democrat Clinton would get 23 percent of the vote – about the number of Democrats in Idaho.

Libertarian Gary Johnson would get 13 percent of the ballot.

Green Party candidate Jill Stein would get 2 percent.

Twelve percent would vote for some other candidate.

And 5 percent don’t know who they would vote for.

These are about the same numbers that Jones found in a survey taken six weeks ago.

Thus, while Trump took a real dive in national polls after his GOP convention – now rebounding some – in Idaho, he didn’t go down as much, and if he did, he’s recovered nicely.

Johnson continues to do well – for a third party candidate – in Idaho.

If he did this well across the nation, he might be included in the presidential TV debates – which now seems a long shot for the former New Mexico governor.

In the new Idaho survey, Jones finds:

-- 75 percent of Republicans plan on voting for Trump.

-- Only 2 percent of Republicans say they favor Clinton.

-- 10 percent of Republicans will vote for Johnson, 7 percent said they would vote for some other candidate, 2 percent like Stein, and 4 percent of Republicans don’t know who they will vote for.

Idaho is a very Republican state, and getting three-fourths of the GOP vote is the reason Trump has double-digit leads over other candidates.

Still, a fourth of Republicans don’t plan now on supporting their party’s presidential candidate – which can’t be considered good for Trump.

Clinton, on the other hand, gets 86 percent support among Idaho Democrats. Only 1 percent said they would vote for Trump, 6 percent said Johnson, 5 percent said they would vote for someone else, 1 percent said Stein and only 1 percent of Idaho Democrats said they didn’t know who they would vote for.

It seems that group of Idahoans has made up their minds, at least.

Political independents (don’t belong to any party) go with Trump, but in fewer numbers: 31 percent will vote for the New York billionaire, 24 percent like Clinton, 18 percent favor Johnson, 17 percent said they would vote for someone else, 6 percent are undecided and 3 percent like Stein.

Especially in Utah, Trump has problems with Mormon voters. Many national stories have been written about this situation, with Trump himself saying he has “tremendous” problems in Utah.

Idaho Mormons are more forgiving. Jones finds:

-- 51 percent of Idaho Mormons say they will vote for Trump.

-- Only 6 percent favor Clinton.

-- 16 percent like Johnson.

-- 18 percent said they would vote for someone else (maybe write in Mitt Romney?).

-- 6 percent of Idaho Mormons don’t know who they will vote for.

-- And 1 percent like Stein.

On another question, 36 percent of Idahoans believe Trump will win in November.

Thirty-seven percent say Clinton will win the White House, even though she clearly will not win Idaho.

Twenty-one percent don’t even have a guess on who will win, and 6 percent said someone other than the major party candidates would actually grab the presidency – hopeful thinking at best.

Jones polled 602 likely voters from Aug. 18-31. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.