Hey everyone, this is Sam, your lovely economy professor !

I’ve been away for quite long as I was preparing for HoT, both as a hardcore member of Snow Crows and as a medium scale TP player. I have also been having quite a bit of real life stuff going on and it was pretty hard to cope with lately. However now I’m back for real and I’ll try to post here a bit more often.

So, as you most probably know if you watch my stream somewhat regularly, I’ve been preparing a lot for HoT. Just like a majority of you guys, I was hoping for it to be a haven of riches, with gold faucets everywhere in the form of rewarding contents. But after a few days in here, I realized it was hell.

Don’t get me wrong. Don’t say I don’t know what I’m talking about. Don’t tell me I haven’t tried out the content. I have grinded my core masteries, went to fractal 100 and tried out the dungeons and new map events in the first two days of the expac launch. I’m aware of what the rewards look like and have identified the current trend of the economy.

With all that in mind, let’s first talk about the cool stuff, aka what went up. I could spend hours on that, but let’s be quick and concise :

Leather of all tiers (except T6) : as expected it went up. ArenaSmith did a good job on that one by introducing not only one, but multiple leather sinks , including one related to the current time limited event (Halloween). You now need Elonian Leather Squares to make Ascended Insignias, hence leather going up. I had smartly invested in it, mainly through the mass salvaging of relatively cheap gear to get my cheap leather. T5 leather was however bought on the TP around 17c then refined into squares, then sold at the 3,40s mark. I had about 13K squares and thus saw a decent profit, just like I expected.

, including one related to the current time limited event (Halloween). You now need Elonian Leather Squares to make Ascended Insignias, hence leather going up. I had smartly invested in it, mainly through the mass salvaging of relatively cheap gear to get my cheap leather. T5 leather was however bought on the TP around 17c then refined into squares, then sold at the 3,40s mark. I had about 13K squares and thus saw a decent profit, just like I expected. Items to be used in precursor crafting also went up/conserved their prices. I’m mainly looking at Elder Wood Logs that stayed somewhat the same (in the 60-70c range) and Mithril Ore (45-55c range). For both of these, I had made stacks on their last dip, around two weeks ago.

also went up/conserved their prices. I’m mainly looking at Elder Wood Logs that stayed somewhat the same (in the 60-70c range) and Mithril Ore (45-55c range). For both of these, I had made stacks on their last dip, around two weeks ago. Items that had potential to be used for agony infusions , new food or precursor crafting also went up a little bit, but enough for me to make some quick cash. I’m mainly looking at Passion Fruit (that actually went up due to speculation, without any major use in this expansion) and Passion Flower (used in Precursor Crafting and which went from 32s to 49s).

, new food or precursor crafting also went up a little bit, but enough for me to make some quick cash. I’m mainly looking at Passion Fruit (that actually went up due to speculation, without any major use in this expansion) and Passion Flower (used in Precursor Crafting and which went from 32s to 49s). Next up was the Mastery Grinding boosts . I’m obviously referring to experience boosters from the Lunar New Year festival : Lunar New Year’s Fireworks and Explosive Draketails. Both went up by over 300% and were a low-risk investment as using them for oneself was a good fall back plan depending on one’s volume of investments.

. I’m obviously referring to experience boosters from the Lunar New Year festival : Lunar New Year’s Fireworks and Explosive Draketails. Both went up by over 300% and were a low-risk investment as using them for oneself was a good fall back plan depending on one’s volume of investments. Runes and sigils with a chance to be useful in HoT also were a good plan, as anyone would expect. I had personally gone for Superior Runes of Rage, Superior Sigils of Impact and a handful of other “meta” and “old-meta” sigils to account for the returning players. I’m happy that my Sigils of Force went up to 15g, but I’m sadpandafacing at the low price on Sigils of Energy. Overall I sold half of my stack with a 200% profit on the Sigils of Impact but still have 500 left of them for when the raids will hit and people will start wanting them. My experience in Fractals 80-100 has confirmed that sigils of impact are by far the best damage boost you can hope for as you need to break the break-bar to be able to deal somewhat decent damage in HoT encounters. Runes of Rage are, like projected, meta on some revenant builds, and I enjoyed selling my stack (bought at 26s) for 1g/rune. Some other upgrades went up with the patch, like superior sigils of bloodlust, etc… and that takes me to my next good point.

with a chance to be useful in HoT also were a good plan, as anyone would expect. I had personally gone for Superior Runes of Rage, Superior Sigils of Impact and a handful of other “meta” and “old-meta” sigils to account for the returning players. I’m happy that my Sigils of Force went up to 15g, but I’m sadpandafacing at the low price on Sigils of Energy. Overall I sold half of my stack with a 200% profit on the Sigils of Impact but still have 500 left of them for when the raids will hit and people will start wanting them. My experience in Fractals 80-100 has confirmed that sigils of impact are by far the best damage boost you can hope for as you need to break the break-bar to be able to deal somewhat decent damage in HoT encounters. Runes of Rage are, like projected, meta on some revenant builds, and I enjoyed selling my stack (bought at 26s) for 1g/rune. Some other upgrades went up with the patch, like superior sigils of bloodlust, etc… and that takes me to my next good point. Upgrade components traded under crafting value as they could be salvaged are finally taking off ! Godbless my Exquisite Chrysocolla Jewels bought at around 10s and salvaged for the same price. The salvage rates having been tampered with, salvaging isn’t nearly as profitable as before. I’m having a bout 50g profit a stack and I’m enjoying this.

But now is the end of the cool stuff… It’s time to go into the dark, horrible stuff of nightmares, which kinda fits the whole Halloween theme.

Fine materials are dead . It’s a fact for T5. Same for stuff that was related to it aka Ectoplasm. The reason for that is most probably that a lot of players came back to the game and started selling their stocks to get some starting gold. The supply has been massive and totally ate the buy orders. Shit’s now dirt cheap and I’m considering making some rare inscriptions for future precursor forging.

. It’s a fact for T5. Same for stuff that was related to it aka Ectoplasm. The reason for that is most probably that a lot of players came back to the game and started selling their stocks to get some starting gold. The supply has been massive and totally ate the buy orders. Shit’s now dirt cheap and I’m considering making some rare inscriptions for future precursor forging. On the same note, T6 went to Narnia . Under 10s for some. That sucks monkey balls. Really. I’m gonna go to the reason as to why this is happening after giving a shot at opportunities..

. Under 10s for some. That sucks monkey balls. Really. I’m gonna go to the reason as to why this is happening after giving a shot at opportunities.. +1 AR Infusions. These went to meet T6 Fine Materials in Narnia and they’re now having a party. You get a shitload of them from fractals, which is probably intended as a way to help you keep up with Agony as you grind your way up. I had to buy about 20 stacks as I was progressing in fractals 😥 But now that I have finished grinding, well I’m just selling that 15 some +1 AR Infusions I get per fractal…

Aetherized skins got ninja-reintroduced… On the bright side, I had none, but on the not so bright one, some people got heavily fucked. Then again the market was stupidly inflated by TP players hoarding the skins and buying up the concurrence. So I guess it evens out You need about 500-600g to get a skin drop at the current prices and it won’t go below 200g.

got ninja-reintroduced… On the bright side, I had none, but on the not so bright one, some people got heavily fucked. Then again the market was stupidly inflated by TP players hoarding the skins and buying up the concurrence. So I guess it evens out You need about 500-600g to get a skin drop at the current prices and it won’t go below 200g. Halloween drops apart from Candy Corn (because people actually use theirs) are going down, quite obviously because it’s farmed to Narnia. I will personally start stocking up on ToT Bags if they go below 2,50s.

(because people actually use theirs) are going down, quite obviously because it’s farmed to Narnia. I will personally start stocking up on ToT Bags if they go below 2,50s. Every identified dye ever tanked. That’s because players came back that hadn’t logged in since the wardrobe patch. They thus got about 2 stacks of unidentified dyes each that some opened and some sold for starting HoT cash. This also counted as an opportunity IMO and I’ll explain why later.

Then there’s the stuff that tanked because of the returning players crowd but will recover in a few weeks. I’m looking at Black Lion Ticket skins, mostly the Halloween ones as they are getting exposure. They can be buy-ordered for 100g or so, but their “real” buy order price is around 120g. They are being traded way under the ticket price of 72g/ticket. You could argue that with buy orders, technically tickets are at 35g per, but that’s assuming the buy orders on old and not reintroduced skins matches reality, which isn’t the case. The introduction of Glittering Skins should correct some prices in about 2-4 weeks.

Now let’s be cool kids for a second and talk about the potential from this patch :

Unidentified dyes went as low as 32s then went back up to 50s. That’s legit amazing and I wanted it for a long time as It was something I never really had an occasion to invest in as I was poor when it was time for it 😥 I now have a stack bought low that will probably allow me to shift to 3 Black Lion Ticket Skins later on.

went as low as 32s then went back up to 50s. That’s legit amazing and I wanted it for a long time as It was something I never really had an occasion to invest in as I was poor when it was time for it 😥 I now have a stack bought low that will probably allow me to shift to 3 Black Lion Ticket Skins later on. Pigments . The new crafting material for Scribe and Artificer that is salvaged from dyes (of any rarity, so don’t salvage rare ones). At the moment, dyes are dirt cheap meaning pigments are too. Also, you can’t deposit them meaning people get annoyed and sell on TP. That is gucci for me and other investors looking for materials with potential as the others are tanking. I’m buying 4 stacks of each pigment just in case and will monitor their price closely.

. The new crafting material for Scribe and Artificer that is salvaged from dyes (of any rarity, so don’t salvage rare ones). At the moment, dyes are dirt cheap meaning pigments are too. Also, you can’t deposit them meaning people get annoyed and sell on TP. That is gucci for me and other investors looking for materials with potential as the others are tanking. I’m buying 4 stacks of each pigment just in case and will monitor their price closely. Amalgamated gemstones are going to be used in both Crystalline Ore (new ascended material used as a currency for skins) and in Precursor Crafting (only one per though). The cool thing is that they are crafted from T6 Orbs and Piles of Crystalline Dust. I thus bought a few stacks of cheap Orbs to join in on the clever people that had such investments. Orbs hit vendor price a few times since the beginning of HoT, so it’s not too late ! I’m gonna be stocking up more on them too.

are going to be used in both (new ascended material used as a currency for skins) and in Precursor Crafting (only one per though). The cool thing is that they are crafted from T6 Orbs and Piles of Crystalline Dust. I thus bought a few stacks of cheap Orbs to join in on the clever people that had such investments. Orbs hit vendor price a few times since the beginning of HoT, so it’s not too late ! I’m gonna be stocking up more on them too. Last opportunity is people being disgusted by precursor crafting and that will rely on the TP again for their precursors. Buying some dirt cheap T5 to make inscriptions is a decent idea.

Lastly I believe it’s time to take a look at the future of the economy in Guild Wars 2. The first thing to do is look at raw gold faucets. They have all been closed. Dungeons now reward a third of the gold that we had pre-patch. Fractals reward up to 5g a day from doing all the dailies. If you actually look at individual rewards, there’s no flat gold. Just +1 AR Infusions and Fractal Encryptions. The Encryptions are currently traded between 25 and 50s, meaning selling them is a good idea. When they’ll drop below 20s it’ll be worth it to open them for the Aetherized skins, minis and other trophy drops, so I believe Fractal grinding will be the only sure fire income for the PvE Community, but then again, heed my words : NO RAW GOLD.

The implication of a lack of gold faucets in a world of gold sinks is the following : mats will keep tanking. Until it starts becoming worth it to vendor them. This, my friends, is called deflation. If there’s not enough raw gold being added to the economy, prices tank. If there’s too much, prices inflate. That’s basic economy understanding from my Economy 101 stream. A lot of people complained of the prices being too high on a lot of materials/items but in my humble opinion, that was the economy working as intended. Some people farmed rewarding dungeons then bought expensive materials from farmers that could then buy their vanity items sold to them by TP players. Everyone was happy, more or less. Now, prices of materials will go down as the only flat gold sources are :

Mob kills. I love 10c/mob killed, how about you ?

Ectoplasm gambling. Hahaha. HAHAHAHAHA ! So reliable.

Fractal dailies. People will do the ones below 30, maybe. That’s 2-3g raw gold potentially per player. Much less than the 25-30g from a dungeon tour.

If the deflation does happen I’m pretty sure John will save us though. However I can’t help but laugh at how “casuals” wanted everything to be cheaper, but now that it’s starting to be the case, you can actually see posts like “I’ve farmed for an hour and gotten 2g worth of loot. GG ANet” showing up on the official fori. Me likey. Not.

Stay tuned for more posts on the economy. They are coming !