Labor will better the government’s planned surpluses and have a $200bn war chest to spend on further tax cuts over the next decade, costings to be released on Friday will show.

As Labor seeks to demonstrate its economic credibility and counter Coalition claims about the risk of a change of government, the party will on Friday reveal projections for a surplus more than twice as large as the Coalition’s by 2022, with its tax crackdown to raise $154bn over the decade.

The opposition’s pledge to achieve a surplus of 1% of GDP by 2022-23 suggests the party will post a surplus of about $22bn at the end of the forward estimates, compared with the $9.2bn forecast by the Coalition in this year’s budget.

The party’s own estimates will reveal that Labor has about $200bn to spend on tax cuts beyond the forward estimates to meet a tax-to-GDP ratio of 24.3% – the same level achieved under the Howard government.

“Labor’s fair go budget plan will show a budget surplus in 2019-20, the same as the Liberals, and every year after,” the shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, said. “We will show bigger budget surpluses over the forward estimates and the medium term, achieving a surplus of 1% of GDP by 2022-23, four years earlier than the current government trajectory.”

Arguing that Labor’s decision to close tax loopholes for the wealthy will give it firepower to provide cost-of-living relief, Bowen said further tax relief would be provided to middle-income earners once the budget allowed.

“Labor has consistently said further tax relief can be prudently provided when the budget is back in healthy surplus, if the economic and fiscal circumstances allow – that is reflected in Labor’s final fiscal plan,” Bowen said.

The opposition will also seek to turn the economic argument against the government, saying the Liberals’ opposition to winding back tax breaks such as dividend imputation changes and negative gearing concessions, will mean households will pay about $18,600 on average to subsidise a “tiny proportion” of the wealthiest Australians.

Friday’s costings will be coupled with another Labor announcement to crack down on “tax tricks”, with a measure to stop trusts being used to deliberately distribute profits and income to people in overseas tax havens. Labor said the tax loophole was used by fewer than 0.001% of taxpayers, but would deliver $430m to the budget bottom line over the medium term.

“We’ll pay for our plan by closing unfair and unsustainable tax loopholes and handouts that go to the top end of town,” Bowen said. “We are diverting this money to deliver bigger surpluses, pay down debt faster, and to pay for our major commitments on services and cost of living relief.”

Beyond the forward estimates, Labor’s budget bottom line will reflect a “technical working assumption” that tax receipts do not rise above 24.3% of GDP over the medium term, which is slightly higher than the Coalition’s fiscal “rule” that sets a tax-to-GDP ratio of 23.9%.

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Labor said that, under the tax assumption, Australia would continue to have a lower tax take than the UK, New Zealand, Germany, Canada and most other advanced economies.

Morrison, who was campaigning in the at-risk northern New South Wales seat of Cowper on Thursday, stepped up his campaign against the tax changes, saying a “quiet army” of Australians would help the Coalition to victory.

“I find this right across rural and regional Australia and in the suburbs in our big cities, there is this quiet army of Australians, they are not shouty and they do not make a lot of noise,” he said. “Do you know why? They are too busy raising kids, getting them off to school, running small businesses, working hard, looking after grandkids, paying bills, paying taxes.”

This week three state Liberal treasurers – from NSW, South Australia and Tasmania – wrote to Shorten seeking the “economic and fiscal impact” of Labor’s proposed tax policies and demanding compensation for any hit to state coffers.

“We are concerned that these changes have the potential to further slow the housing market, which will have significant implications for our constituents and also our local economies,” the letter said.

The states said they would demand compensation in the form of extra GST payments if Labor’s negative gearing and capital gains tax changes put sufficient downward pressure on house prices to affect stamp duty revenue.

Modelling from NSW treasury released on Wednesday showed Labor’s changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount would cause a 0.8% to 1.3% decline in stamp duty revenues from 2020 to 2023 for that state, equivalent to $200m.

The Grattan Institute has estimated the negative gearing changes would cause a reduction in house values of between 1% and 2%.