Summary

Many of the Aspen trees are turning a gorgeous shade of yellow – get out and enjoy! Friday and Saturday will be dry, warm, and bring a gusty afternoon wind. Sunday will be 10-20°F cooler, and on Sunday night, the eastern mountains could see light snow or freezing drizzle. Then next week through early October should be dry with temperatures near or above average.

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Short Term Forecast

Late September weather in Colorado is hard to beat.

Here's how the Aspen trees look on the morning of Friday, Sep 25, 2020, from the cam near the summit of Aspen Highlands.

My wife and I are coming up on our 5 year wedding anniversary. The ceremony took place on September 26, 2015, at the summit of Buttermilk, which offered a similar view as the image above, just from a slightly different angle. We had picked the weekend of September 26th based on experience that it was near the peak of fall color, and that turned out to be true. We were also lucky to have sunny and warm weather for our wedding, while the same weekend the following year brought snow to Aspen. As I often say, getting the best conditions takes a lot of planning and also a lot of luck!

It's wonderful to be talking about fall color and not dense smoke from wildfires. The smoke forecast map from our OpenSummit app shows that most of the state is free of smoke, with higher concentrations near the Wyoming border due to two fires in northern Colorado and one fire in southern Wyoming. Most models show the smoke staying close to those fires through the weekend.

Weather for Friday and Saturday will be dry and warm. The only weather factor to consider when heading outside will be gusty afternoon winds over the central and northern mountains. The image below is taken from the forecast screen of our OpenSummit app and nicely highlights the stronger winds.

Following Saturday, there will be a sharp change in the weather.

While Saturday's high temperatures will be warm with 60s and 70s in the mountains and 80s over the lower elevations…

…Sunday's temperatures will be 10-20°F cooler over the northern and central parts of the state with 50s and 60s over the mountains and 60s over the lower elevations as well.

And along with Sunday's cold front, there will be a chance for light snow and/or freezing drizzle on Sunday evening and Sunday night near and east of the continental divide, above about 6,500 feet.

If the push of moisture, cold air, and the jet stream is strong enough, we'll eke out some snowflakes. If these elements are a little weaker, we might see some freezing drizzle, or just clouds.

The latest higher-end snowfall map shows this pattern.

This should NOT be significant snow, but if you're driving across the divide on Sunday night, pay attention to the forecast as roads could be slick for a few hours.

Extended Forecast

Looking ahead to the week leading into October, we'll start with chilly temperatures on Monday and then warm for the rest of the week. The western part of Colorado will warm more than the eastern part.

Also, it looks like the entire week will be dry with no precipitation.

Aside from the chance for light snow over the continental divide on Sunday night, I do NOT see any significant storms in our future. There has been significant snow in the Pacific Northwest and in Europe, but not here. Patience, it'll come, hopefully when we want it (starting in November).

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

PS – Join me for a virtual talk about the forecast for the season and some other weather geekery, and you'll also have the chance to win real-life prizes on October 15th. This is all hosted by Neptune Mountaineering in Boulder. Details and tickets here!

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains

Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide

Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide

Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains

Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains

Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains