Joanna Allhands

USA TODAY

Happy voting day (again)!

Today is the Ides of March, that macabre day when we celebrate the assassination of Julius Caesar. What better day to talk about more (theoretical and figurative) political violence?

(Btw, why are you on the web when you can get this analysis in your inbox six days a week? Join Team For the Record now. Seriously.)

BEWARE THE POLLS OF MARCH

As we noted Monday, none of the primaries today will coronate Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. But the contests in Florida and Ohio are do-or-die for Marco Rubio and John Kasich. If neither can win in his home state, the chances of mounting an effective comeback are pretty much nil. Which means, effectively, today’s vote will also determine the chances of a brokered convention – and the mass Republican chaos that such a convention is bound to bring with it. Beware the Ides (or Polls) of March, indeed.

ET TU, BRUTE?

Opinion polls can always be wrong (cough, hack, Bernie Sanders’ win last week in Michigan). But the latest ones suggest Trump has a commanding lead in Rubio’s home state of Florida, while Trump and Kasich are neck-and-neck in Ohio. Rubio has urged supporters to vote for Kasich in Ohio, saying that’s the only way to stop Trump there, and in turn, asked Kasich’s supporters to support Rubio in Florida. Kasich’s response? Thanks, but my people should vote for me everywhere. Ouch. Et tu, Brute?

IT’S NOT JUST FLORIDA AND OHIO

There are 367 Republican delegates up for grabs today – less than Super Tuesday – but as we told you last week, it’s the first time said delegates will be awarded winner-take-all. So, while most of the political oxygen is being sucked up in Florida and Ohio, Illinois and Missouri also are worth watching because if Trump sweeps them, Ted Cruz will have an even tougher time catching up. The breakdown of today’s spoils:

Florida: 99, winner-take-all.

Ohio: 66, winner-take-all.

Illinois: 69, winner-take-most.

Missouri: 52, winner-take-most.

North Carolina: 72, proportional.

Northern Mariana Islands, 9, winner-take-all.

MEANWHILE, IN DEM LAND

The Mega Tuesday Democratic primaries aren’t nearly as crazy or consequential as the GOP ones. Illinois, Ohio and Missouri could be close wins for Sanders. But here’s the harsh truth, folks: Unless Sanders starts winning by huge margins, he’ll never catch Clinton in a system that awards delegates in all states proportionally. Sanders is even further behind in pledged delegates now, despite his shocking win in Michigan, because Clinton did so well in Mississippi. Lame, yes. But that’s how the game is played. Anyway, here’s a breakdown of today’s spoils:

Florida: 246 delegates.

Ohio: 159 delegates.

Illinois: 182 delegates.

Missouri: 71 delegates.

North Carolina: 122 delegates.

MORE FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

The most super of the Democratic superdelegates? President Obama, and – hey, candidates – he’s still available (USA TODAY On Politics)

Breitbart believes Trump camp over reporter’s allegations that security roughed her up, reporter resigns (USA TODAY On Politics)

Some said a shorter early voting period and new voter ID requirements would suppress turnout. But it broke records in parts of North Carolina (Asheville Citizen Times)

Not sure how you’ll vote today? Check out these candidate endorsements from Ohio (Cincinnati Enquirer)

WAIT ... THERE WAS A MOVIE ABOUT TODAY?

Should you for some weird reason want to celebrate the Ides of March with a political movie of the same title, you’re in luck. There’s one from 2011 about a sex scandal that emerged during a hotly contested Ohio primary. George Clooney plays the presidential candidate and Ryan Gosling his press secretary, so, you know, there’s that going for it.