The Top Trios In The NFL: Numbers Don’t Lie

It’s the time of year football fans dread; the summer months where the majority of the NFL news comes in the form of off-season training activities (OTA’s) with players performing without pads and everyone claiming this is the best they’ve ever felt. However, since we are nation of football, and like the players who practice year round, the fans are always ready to discuss their favorite sport. A popular talking point among NFL talking heads has been the top trios (quarterback, running back, wide receiver) in the league. NFL Network’s Dave Dameshek has a running power ranking of his best trios, and unsurprisingly, the Pittsburgh native has his Steelers as the #1 ranked team. It’s not without merit of course, the Steelers possess one of the best trios in the NFL. But, what do the advanced stats say?

I decided to take the DVOA of each position group and then use the average of each of a team’s top players together to create a ranking. For instance, if x team has a quarterback 4th in DVOA, a running back 10th and a receiver 12th, that comes out to a total of 26. Divide that total by three and you get an average DVOA of 8.6. As with my team draft previews, DVOA is the defense adjusted value each player has compared to an average player in the same situations. It takes into account down, distance, opponent strength and time in the game. It also eliminates garbage plays and end of half kneel downs or throw away runs. This metric is provided by the website Football Outsiders and there are minimum numbers of passes, runs and receptions to qualify for a DVOA ranking.

As the saying goes, there are lies, there are damn lies, and then there are stats. The good thing about stats of course is they have no biases and no agendas. They are what they are, and they won’t be fooled by the eye test or popular opinion. Here are the top 10 trios in the NFL, according to the DVOA metric. As you will see there are a few surprises, and a few that aren’t surprising in the least.

Notable exclusions: Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons. If either team had anyone who has proven anything at all at running back for them in 2015, they easily make this list. Unfortunately, that is not the case, and given the premise of using stats to make my analysis I can’t simply say Romo, Dez and some guy at running back. So to those respective fan bases, I know Romo and Dez are great. I know Matt Ryan was 9th and Julio Jones was 15th in DVOA. I can’t project Joseph Randle and Devonta Freeman. Sorry friends.

10.) Philadelphia Eagles– Mark Sanchez (23rd in DVOA), DeMarco Murray (5th), Jordan Mathews (20th) Average DVOA= 16

I decided to go with Mark Sanchez due to Sam Bradford’s injury status being up in the air, and his lack of a DVOA last season due to his injury. In 2013, Bradford had a DVOA ranking of 14, but I felt it fairer to use Sanchez for these purposes. Obviously this ranking is due in large part to their acquisition of running back DeMarco Murray, who was one of the elite runners in the NFL last season. Interestingly, Jordan Mathews had a DVOA ranking 10 spots higher than the higher regarded receiver Jeremy Maclin, who departed to the Chiefs in free agency. Similarly, Murray, 5th in DVOA, replaced running back LeSean McCoy, seen as an elite back in the NFL, yet only 24th in DVOA ranking. There may have been a method to Chip Kelly’s madness in letting those two players go at the end of 2014.

9.) Indianapolis Colts– Andrew Luck (11), Frank Gore (13), T.Y. Hilton (14) DVOA Average= 12.7

There are two surprises here: First, a lot of pundits were down on Frank Gore at the end of last season, but he came in with a solid DVOA ranking ahead of players like LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte, who, are seen as elite at their positions. He will help stabilize a Colts running attack that has been poor since Luck took over at QB. The second surprise is Luck not performing at a top 10 level last season. Granted, he is still young, and popular belief is he will rise to the top of the QB class very soon, but as I wrote in my Colts draft preview, he still has work to do to be considered truly elite. This is a big season for Hilton who will be looking for an extension on his rookie deal soon; the speed receiver will enjoy Andre Johnson working underneath creating space for Hilton deep in the secondary.

8.) New Orleans Saints– Drew Brees (7), Mark Ingram (14), Marques Colston (16) Average DVOA= 12.3

Who knew Marques Colston was a top 20 receiver last season? His DVOA score was +14.3%, higher than Calvin Johnson (+10.2%), Golden Tate (+6.7%) and Jeremy Maclin (+7.4%). He was certainly frustrating for many fantasy owners, but real life football is a different animal and Colston was solid last season. Ingram had his best season by far last year, and looks to continue that progress this season. Is Drew Brees slowing down? Can he continue to be a top 10 QB? Can he get back into the top 5? The Saints season depends on it.

7.) New York Giants– Eli Manning (16), Rashad Jennings (11), Odell Beckham Jr. (9) Average DVOA= 12

The other-worldly abilities of one Odell Beckham Jr. have been well documented since he destroyed the internet and the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football with his one handed wonder catch. Despite his greatness in the last few weeks of the season, he did have somewhat of a slow start to his rookie year due to injury and thus his first few games were relatively tame, which led to him being ranked 9th in DVOA. The key for the Giants was a bounce back year for Eli and a borderline top 10 season from Rashad Jennings on the ground. He was a low key solid player for them, and if he can stay healthy the Giants will look to be more than just OBJ greatness in 2015.

6.) Seattle Seahawks– Russell Wilson (14), Marshawn Lynch (1), Jimmy Graham (17) Average DVOA= 10.7

Russell Wilson is nice and all, but Beast Mode is what makes the Seahawks go. The top ranked runner in DVOA last year, he also led the NFL with 14 rushing touchdowns. Wilson was pretty good for his part, just outside the top 15, with a good portion of his value coming as a runner (among running quarterbacks, Wilson was 4th for his position in DVOA, and had the most rushing yards by over 200). His passing ranking looks to improve with the addition of tight end Jimmy Graham, who saw injuries drop him to 17th in DVOA amongst tight ends. However, Wilson has never had a target like this at receiver and they have a good chance to move into the top 5 in 2015.

5.) New England Patriots– Tom Brady (6), LeGarrette Blount (15), Rob Gronkowski (7) Average DVOA= 9.3

Say what you want about LeGarrette Blount, but he loves playing for the Patriots. A lot of his yards and production came with the Steelers, a team that eventually cut him, but the numbers are what they are. What really makes the Pats what they are offensively is the combo between Brady and Gronk, two of the truly elite players in the NFL. Brady it seems starts every year slow (this year he’ll start exceptionally slow, with him being suspended for the first 4 games), but seems to pick it up just when everyone is writing him off. As long as he has Gronk to throw to, expect this to be one of the top trios in the NFL.

4.) Miami Dolphins– Ryan Tannehill (18) Lamar Miller (3) Kenny Stills (3) Average DVOA= 8

Wait, what? Is this right? Lamar Miller 3rd in DVOA amongst running backs? Kenny Stills 3rd?!?!? Let’s go a little deeper into these numbers, because this made me pause as well. First, Miller had 216 carries so this isn’t a case of a mini sample size. Second, Miller also came in 4th in DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) and 1st in Success Rate (percentage of successful runs based on down and distance. The guy was really good in 2014, and there is no reason to think he won’t be in 2015 as well. As for Kenny Stills, he was a little more modest in DYAR, ranked 12th, but he had a 75% catch rate, which was the best by anyone in the top 30 in DYAR and incredible for someone who averaged 11.1 yards per attempt and 15 yards a reception. They are chucking him the ball and he’s catching it at a phenomenal rate. The only guys who are close to him in catch rate are slot guys Cole Beasely, Brandin Cooks and his teammate Jarvis Landry. The Dolphins offense will look to be elite in 2015.

3.) Pittsburgh Steelers– Ben Roethlisberger (4), Le’Veon Bell (6), Antonio Brown (10) Average DVOA= 6.7

Full disclosure, Bell’s DVOA as just a runner was at #9, but given his ability to catch the ball (he had over 800 yards last year), I combined his receiving DVOA amongst running backs, 3rd, to his running DVOA and came up with his final ranking of 6. I just felt of all the running backs, it was impossible to simply rank him as a runner when he was so vital to them in the pass game. Browns rank of #10 is a big surprise, given his incredible production. It’s likely that his rank is affected by his opponents; the Steelers got the poor NFC South last year and his division had some pretty poor pass defenses in 2014. Even so, this is an elite trio that is the envy of perhaps every team in the NFL save for two.

2.) Denver Broncos– Peyton Manning (5), C.J. Anderson (4), Emmanuel Sanders (4) Average DVOA= 4.3

Despite his poor finish, Manning was good enough in the first 11 weeks to make the top 5 in DVOA, and C.J. Anderson’s strong finish got him into the top 5 amongst running backs. He was also ranked 7th in DYAR and in 179 carries he didn’t register one fumble while finishing 10th in Success Rate. Sanders was the big surprise. Teammate Damaryious Thomas is seen as the star on this team, but Sanders was sublime in 2014. Also ranked 3rd in DYAR, Sanders was his teammate’s superior in DVOA ranking by 26 spots. The key next season will be Manning’s ability to hold off father time; if he can do that the Broncos are likely to be elite again in 2015.

1.) Green Bay Packers– Aaron Rodgers (1), Eddie Lacy (8), Randall Cobb (1) Average DVOA= 3.3

Randall Cobb first in DVOA? It’s true ladies and gentlemen, which is both surprising and depressing for opponents of the Packers, where conventional thinking is Jordy Nelson is the #1 option on that team. Nelson comes in second in DYAR, and Cobb #4, but Cobb has the far superior catch percentage, and is seven spots higher in DVOA than his counterpart. To the surprise of no one, DVOA rankings have Rodgers as #1 in the NFL. To the surprise of some, Rodgers is also #1 amongst quarterbacks in DVOA as a runner, proving that situational running matters just as much as actual yards gained. More proof? Tony Romo came in #2. Lacy is a solid 8th in DVOA amongst running backs giving the Packers the best offense going into 2015 and most likely beyond. Given the greatness of their offense, this frees up more of their time to work on other things…like special teams.