First minister sidelines quest for second independence vote in favour of attack on Tory austerity in SNP manifesto

A second Scottish independence referendum should be held after the Brexit process is complete, Nicola Sturgeon has said, signalling a significant change in her party’s constitutional strategy.

The first minister launched the Scottish National party’s general election manifesto in Perth, a key Conservative target, on Tuesday and sidelined her quest for a second independence vote in favour of an attack on Tory austerity.

The manifesto made a series of promises to oppose Westminster cuts to government spending, welfare payments and tax rates, to modernise the UK’s voting system by introducing proportional representation, to protect pensions and to press for a UK-wide new 50p top rate of income tax.

In a key passage of the document, she appeared to drop her demands made in March for a second independence referendum to be held between autumn 2018 and spring 2019. She had said she wanted the vote to be held once the terms of Brexit were clear but, if possible, before a final deal was signed.

The document launched on Tuesday states: “At the end of the Brexit process, when the final terms of the deal are known, it is right that Scotland should have a choice about our future.”

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That suggests Sturgeon now accepts she cannot stage the referendum until after the UK has formally left the EU, even if popular support for a vote reaches the large majority she needs to force Theresa May to drop her opposition to such a move.

The prime minister has said it could take several years after the UK signs article 50 in 2019 for the Brexit process to be completed, and has made clear she sees no case for another referendum.

Sturgeon in her speech and the manifesto put repeated emphasis on the contribution SNP MPs could make at Westminster to opposing austerity and increasing public spending by the UK government over the next five years, again implying she was not certain she could stage or win a referendum.

Referring to Labour’s low level of popular support in Scotland and the continuing gap between the Tories and Labour at UK level, she said she believed May would win on 8 June. “Only the SNP has the strength in Scotland to stand up to the Tories,” she said.

“So we face, I think, another Tory government but it’s a Tory government which has had, I think, its vulnerabilities exposed in this campaign, so let’s make sure we grasp that opportunity to send strong Scottish voices to keep that government in check.”

Sturgeon’s original position on a second referendum was heavily influenced by her predecessor Alex Salmond, who argued last year that holding a fast referendum while the Brexit process was under way was essential.

He argued winning a yes vote before Brexit would reinforce Scotland’s case for remaining in the EU after independence and allow the SNP to use the resentment of pro-EU Scottish voters to build up the yes vote into a majority.

With SNP ministers now bracing for the loss of up to 15 seats at the election, the manifesto sought to bolster the SNP argument that wins in Scottish Westminster seats on 8 June would reinforce the party’s mandate to stage a new referendum.

It said that would offer the SNP a “triple lock”, since the SNP had won the 2016 Holyrood election and a Scottish parliament vote in March backing Sturgeon’s spring 2019 timetable.

Scottish public opinion has moved against independence and remained against a fast referendum, with the yes vote falling to 43% in some polls and many SNP supporters hostile to Scotland rejoining the EU. The SNP’s popularity has also fallen to as low as 41%, from a high of 55% in April 2015, the month before the SNP landslide in the last Westminster election.

Rival candidates this time say Sturgeon’s stance on Brexit and independence has alienated previous SNP voters, who are now backing the Tories, Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Questioned after her speech about her change in stance, Sturgeon confirmed she no longer had clear date in mind. She said the central principle now was clarity about the exact terms of Brexit, not a set timetable.

Sidestepping questions on what she would do if May again refused to discuss a referendum or Sturgeon’s demands to take part in the Brexit talks, the first minister claimed she had set the original timescale because May had said the terms of Brexit would be clear before article 50 was signed in March 2019.

“If that changes then of course we will have to consider our timing in light of that,” she said. “But the key point of principle for me is clarity at the end of the process which allows people to make a genuinely informed choice about the future of our country.”

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Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Tory leader, said Sturgeon had tried her usual trick of trying to hide her support for independence. “Nobody is fooled any more. Strip away the bluster and it’s written down in black and white: she wants to drag Scotland back to another referendum by as early as next autumn,” Davidson said.

Willie Rennie, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, said: “The SNP must think we are stupid. They barely mentioned independence today but we know independence will be their top priority once the election is over. At every election they pretend they are fighting for the greater good but all they ever fight for is independence.”

Kezia Dugdale, the Scottish Labour leader, claimed Sturgeon had again confirmed a referendum was her “number one priority”. Dugdale said SNP claims that it could meaningfully oppose austerity were hollow.

“Nicola Sturgeon can talk about opposing austerity all she likes, but the reality is that the SNP has cut £1.5bn from local services like schools and care of the elderly,” Dugdale said. “She can talk about a 50p top rate of income tax all she likes, but the reality is that the SNP voted against this in the Scottish parliament.”

The Institute for Fiscal Studies said the SNP’s proposals for £120bn of extra public spending and investment across the UK were less ambitious than Labour’s plans, involving much lower levels of funding.

They were more generous on welfare, the economics thinktank said, but that would require further tax rises, particularly on banks, larger companies and higher earners, and would also mean more borrowing.

The IFS said the SNP planned “to go further than Labour in reversing planned benefit cuts – ending the cash-terms freeze to working-age benefits and revoking restrictions on tax credits and universal credit to the first two children in a family, for instance.”