The culture secretary, Sajid Javid, is to fire a shot across the bows of the BBC on Tuesday when he announces that a review into the licence fee is to be brought forward while questioning whether making non-payment a criminal offence is working.

The review, which was already part of a deregulation bill that gained cross-party support earlier this year, is likely to pave the way for decriminalising non-payment.

In a speech to the Royal Television Society Javid will confirm a review of the law that makes it a criminal offence to not pay the fee. He will say that the government is committed to changing the system, on the same day that Rona Fairhead, the BBC Trust chair-designate, will be questioned by MPs on the Commons culture, media and sport select committee.

They must approve her appointment before the former chief executive of the Financial Times Group can be confirmed in the £110,000-a-year role.

Javid will tell the society that almost 200,000 people were prosecuted in 2012-13 for failing to buy a TV licence, which costs £145.50 a year. "More than 50 were sent to prison. When over 10% of magistrates court cases concern this one offence, you have to ask whether the current system is really working. So that's exactly what I'm going to do," he is expected to say.

The government plans to review decriminalisation once the deregulation bill receives royal assent. However, the culture secretary will say that the process needs to begin immediately.

"Very shortly I will be publishing the terms of reference for a review of TV licence enforcement. I expect it to begin taking evidence in the autumn, and to conclude early in the next parliament," he will tell the society.

"I don't want to pre-empt the [BBC] charter review. I want to ensure that, when it begins, it has a solid evidence base on which to draw. This will allow it to shape the future of the BBC in a way that works for both the corporation and those who pay for it."

Decriminalisation has been backed by the Conservative and Labour parties, although the deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg, has struck a cautious note about the move. He has highlighted BBC concerns that any move to encourage licence fee evasion could reduce the broadcaster's income and lead to services being cut.

James Purnell, the BBC director of strategy and digital and a former Labour culture secretary, has questioned some of the arguments presented by those pushing for a change to the existing system.

"One of the 'facts' that has been used is that this is taking up 10% of court cases. We think it may turn out that the time is much less than that," he told BBC Radio 4.

He said that licence fee cases took up just 0.3% of court time because most were processed in about three minutes.

A BBC spokesman said: "This is an important issue and the review must be thorough and not rushed. Licence fee evasion is low, which maximises investment in the programmes and services that audiences love. Changing the system could lead to higher evasion, so it's important that any decisions are made as part of the charter review process. We look forward to working with the review."