After glancing at the Morning Briefing, I hope you have some targets picked out that appear to be in successful fantasy producing spots. Let’s roll out the position picks for each position, along with some bonus picks at the end. These are picks Keith likes for a variety of reasons. They are not necessarily the “top option on the board,” “chalk options,” “highest scoring,” “GPP only,” or whatever other moniker you want to assign. These are Keith’s favorite options when combining all of these factors….

The graphics you are looking at is a rolling 30-day snapshot indicating average performance above/below expected points along with a percentage of times said player has exceeded projections. The blue line indicates fluctuations in salary over the same 30-day time frame. The bar graph shows how far above/below a particular date resulted vs expected production.

PG – Deron Williams ($6000) –

In 2 games this season vs. OKC Thunder, Deron Williams is averaging just barely under a full fantasy point per minute while averaging 21 pts/4 reb/5.5 ast with 1.5 steals while shooting a whopping 53% from the field.

(Query posted courtesy of StatMuse.com)

Don’t ever accuse me (Keith) of being afraid to pick on the Thunder. Chop, however, isn’t afraid to be an OKC homer. Although OKC is favored by 5 1/2, I know from experience that these games are usually competitive and this game has a solid chance at making OT. If you are playing Westbrook, it’s a good GPP strategy to ping-pong him with Deron Williams tonight.

SG – Andrew Wiggins ($6600) –

Sing it with me……OH CANADAAAA, my home and native laaaaaaand…. This is a bit of a narrative since Wiggins is Canadian, but if you want statistical analysis we have some of that, too. TOR is averaging 0.72 FD pts/min to SGs this season and Wiggins is averaging 0.82 FD pts/min over his last 15 games. Over his last 10, he has exceeded his point expectations by 5.14 per game. Coming off a “down” game, Wiggins ownership percentage may be lower than usual.

SF – Paul George ($8700) –

Public perception on Paul George has been pretty negative because he has significantly cooled off from his hot start to the season that saw his salary go over $10000. He is a bonafide double-double threat any given night, and could threaten a triple-double. He has that kind of talent. PG13 is averaging 1.07 FD pts/min over his last 15 games and targeting Carmelo Anthony’s defense is never a bad thing. Any time you can get 50 pt upside for under 9k, you should take a hard look at the player in GPP formats.

PF – Zach Randolph ($6400) –

With the absence of Marc Gasol, Randolph has one of the best matchups tonight at the position. ZBo should be taking the young Julius Randle to school. His price still falls well short of his true value, and he fills up the stat sheet with regularity giving him a stable floor. He will be playing up in pace tonight, which should put a few more possessions on his table for eating.

C – DeAndre Jordan ($8700) –

In his last 15 games, whenever Jordan reaches 35 min he has failed to reach 40 FD pts two times. That’s right…..two. He averages 1.10 FD pts/min over the same span and draws a DEN Nuggets team on the back end of their back-to-back where DeMarcus Cousins just posted 68 and 55 FD pts in Boogie’s last two meetings with the same Nuggets. The only worry here is if Denver employs the “Hack a Jordan” philosophy and just puts him on the line all night long in an attempt to put a cap on the pending damage DeAndre can do to them.

Stud of the Night – Kevin Durant

In the two games Durant has played against the Mavericks this year, KD is averaging 1.21 FD fantasy points per minute. Coming off two straight losses, he is going to look to put the Thunder on his back and get OKC back in the win column. In the 2 games DAL has played their starters, the avg margin of victory is only 3 pts. Even on the front-end of a back-to-back, OKC desperately wants the sweep over their divisional rival.

Value of the Night – Danny Green

Insert snurky Rob Ryan comment here (remember the targeting Rob Ryan bit?)….. In a game that is supposed to be closer, and with Ginobli still on the shelf, at $4500 and in the highest game total of the night, you’d be hard-pressed to find somebody at or below this price tag that will play the minutes Green should.

GPP of the Night – Jamal Crawford

These are the balls it takes to win SIX FIGS!! Crawford was one of the highest owned player just two nights ago at 50%….and he put up a one. That’s right, an uno. A solo. A lonely little single fantasy point. And, plenty of people were muttering, “I’ll never roster that blankety-blank so-and-so again!!” In order to win GPPs, you have to capitalize on recency bias in others. I’ve said it in Slack and I’ll say it again. Players with high ownerships that lay eggs, automatically trigger my instinct to attack on the very next slate they appear. At $4900, I will gladly take the ownership, or lack thereof, especially going against the Nuggets.

Cue drumroll…………..

Brass Balls FADE of the Night – DeMarcus Cousins

That don’t call this BRASS BALLS for no reason, playas! We didn’t post that pic above for no reason. Go brass, or go home! This does not mean I don’t think Cousins is incapable of having a good game. But, if I’m going to spend $10900 for someone, like yesterday, I’m going to spend it in a better matchup. Out of the elite players on this slate, Boogie by far has the worst matchup. He’s playing down in pace, is going against Popovich (whom we know is the Bill Belichek of the NBA), and simply isn’t in a great spot. I’d rather spend my cap in spots better poised to pay me off.

As always, Keith will be available in the Slack VIP Channel to update you on injury news, and how to pivot if need be….make sure to join in the conversation. He’s always open to answering questions, but if you are going to ask if you should play “Player X” over “Player Y” make sure you check the rankings on the cheat sheets before asking unless news has come out that could possibly change the situation. Thank you!

Cheat Sheets are condensed….remember, there will be players that are not on this sheet that go off. The goal here is to not overload you with a lot of combinations. Sure, I can put in 15 PG’s and 10 PF’s. And then say, “the winning lineup was on the Sheet” but that doesn’t help us. I’m giving you options at varying price points, so you can build varying types of lineup. I feel the last two months of the season, we will have better success by choosing from a smaller pool. LET’S MAKE THAT MONEY!!!

You can get a Google Sheet’s version of the Cheat Sheet’s here, or you can download the Excel or PDF versions below.

NBA Cheat Sheet

NBA Cheat Sheet FD PDF

NBA Cheat Sheet DK PDF

DraftKings Cash Optimal Lineup

FanDuel Cash Optimal Lineup