Shaksgam Valley and Military Implication

Given the geography, how can China pose a security challenge to Indian interests in the region? To understand this, we assess the following two questions:

Can China threaten Siachen Glacier and other areas in this region via Shaksgam Valley?

Is China trying to create a lateral link between the east and west via Shaksgam Valley?

1. Threat to Siachen Glacier

From the Chinese point of view, if they can come down from the north into Siachen Glacier and then proceed south towards Shyok Valley, they will achieve a military masterstroke. They will land right in the middle of the rear of Indian defences to the east. Technically, the Chinese can then move east along Shyok River and attack Indian positions in Daulat-Beg-Oldie (DBO)-Karakoram Pass complex from the east. Indian positions would be caught in a pincer from the front (Chinese assault from Aksai Chin towards DBO) and from the rear. The defence of Leh would have to be mounted from Ladakh Range.

But alas! If all this was as simple as writing this scenario.

Nevertheless, we look at possible Chinese threat to Siachen Glacier, how feasible it really is, and the role of Shaksgam Valley in helping the Chinese achieve their objectives.

The threat to Siachen Glacier can manifest in two ways – one, China uses long-range artillery to target Indian positions on the glacier; second, it makes an attempt to occupy the glacier.

1.1 Fire Assault on Glacier

Depending on the kind of artillery it uses and the areas on Siachen Glacier it wants to target, People’s Liberation Army-Ground Forces (PLAGF) will have to reach within 30-100km of the glacier. The closer it comes and longer the range of artillery it uses, the farther it can target Indian positions on Saltoro Ridge and areas to the south of the glacier.

The PLAGF has long-range multiple-rocket launch systems (MRLS) (100+ km and 200+ km range) that can target Indian positions from locations within Shaksgam Valley. However, given the fact that any projectile fired towards Indian positions from Shaksgam Valley will have to clear the high ridge lines of Karakoram Range, the firing will have to be done at high angles. This perforce means reduced range and so the firing units will have to be placed much closer to the glacier. This is despite the fact that artillery rounds in the rarefied air of high altitude tends to have a longer-than-expected range due to reduced air resistance. Given the range aspect, tube artillery will be of limited use if it is placed north of Urdok Glacier because from this location it can target positions only at the northern end of the glacier. On the other hand, if tube artillery is placed in the east segment of Shaksgam Valley, it can target northern and central parts of the Glacier. As will be explained later, building any infrastructure in the eastern part of the valley is a difficult proposition.

So, how do you reach a suitable place in Shaksgam Valley to target Siachen Glacier?

A recent report claimed that the Chinese have built a 36km road further into Shaksgam Valley from their position at the junction of Oprang River and Shaksgam River, which is the border point between Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and China (as per the 1963 Sino-Pakistan border treaty). If China continues to further develop this road, they could technically reach the base of Urdok Glacier, which lies on the other side of Siachen Glacier, across the Siachen Muztagh section of Karakoram Range.

However, if the intention is to strike Indian positions on Siachen (including areas as far south as the start of the glacier or even further south in Shyok Valley) with long-range rockets, China has multiple options which do not require it to build a road in Shaksgam Valley.

For example, the entire glacier from north to south, including areas right up to Diskit (confluence of Nubra and Shyok River) are within the range of long-range MRLS from areas which are under Chinese control. This includes the area to the north of Karakoram Pass, which is undisputed Chinese territory and which does not require the Chinese to develop any specific infrastructure. Or, it can launch rockets from Aksai Chin area, which is Indian territory under Chinese control.

For an idea about the distance involved, the map below shows a 40km and a 100km radius circle centred on the northern edge of Siachen Glacier.