Popular science fiction writer Robert A Heinlein could have been talking about the current Indian public debate on economy when he wrote this line in If This Goes On – “You can sway a thousand men by appealing to their prejudices quicker than you can convince one man by logic”.

Just consider the various ‘concerned’ opinion-editorials and TV interviews by ‘experts’ that have flooded the marketplace in recent weeks. The common thread that runs through all of them is prejudice trumping data and facts. But before we get into why this may be happening now, let us first settle some facts on the economy, most of which were brilliantly enunciated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself in his speech on 4 October at an event in New Delhi.

The world over, economies are assessed by what can be termed as the eight golden indicators – inflation, current account balance, fiscal deficit, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, forex reserves, exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and job creation. Economies that are doing well at a particular period of time generally perform well on four to five parameters of these eight. A major world economy doing well on all the eight parameters at the same time – it would be a rarity, if at all it happens.

How has India been doing on these eight golden indicators in comparison to the immediate preceding years? Here are the numbers.

Inflation

Overall consumer price index (CPI) inflation in financial year (FY) 2013-14 was 9.4 per cent; for the April-August period of FY 2017-18, it is at 2.5 per cent.

Food inflation that adversely affects every household – 12.1 per cent in FY 2013-14 and now in the negative at -0.3 per cent for April-August of FY 2017-18.

Current Account Balance (CAB):

This is the difference between exports and imports and should ideally be very low or even in the positive. CAB was -4.8 per cent of GDP in 2012-13; it has come down to -0.7 per cent in FY 2016-17.

Fiscal Deficit

The central government fiscal deficit was 5.9 per cent in FY 2011-12; it has come down to 3.5 per cent in FY 2017-18 and is targeted at around 3 per cent by the end of the current fiscal.

FDI Inflows

As per the FDI intelligence report 2017, India is the number one country in the world for attracting greenfield FDI investment, ahead of the United States and China. This happened for the first time ever in 2015 and the trend has persisted in 2016.

Forex Reserves

India’s forex reserves stood at $292 billion at the end of FY 2011-12; at the end of September 2017, the figure stands at $402 billion.

Exchange Rate

The fluctuation in exchange rate between April 2011 and March 2014 was approximately 34 per cent; between April 2014 and March 2017 – just about 4 per cent.

GDP Growth Rate

The GDP growth rate has received a lot of attention from some usual suspects as well as from some ‘experts’. Before getting into that argument, first some numbers. GDP growth rate at constant 2011-12 prices was 5.5 per cent in FY 2012-13, up to 8 per cent in FY 2015-16 and 7.1 per cent in FY 2016-17.

For the first quarter of current fiscal, the GVA has grown at 5.6 per cent, but as the Reserve Bank of India Governor predicted, it will be an upward trajectory every quarter from now on, and the last quarter of current fiscal is likely to see 7.7 per cent growth rate. If this upward trajectory persists, as is most likely the case, overall FY 2018-19 is looking at 8+ per cent overall growth again, thereby retaining its position as the fastest growing major economy in the world.

Jobs And Livelihood Earning

A fierce debate has raged on for some months now as to whether the economy has been creating adequate jobs. Part of this has also been fuelled by the outdated methodology of statistics collecting on job fronts by the Labour Bureau. But still, consider the following two numbers.

First, enrollment in provident fund. In March 2014, 3.26 crore people were depositing money monthly in their employees’ provident fund (EPF) accounts. This figure now stands at 4.8 crore. Provident fund is a feature of the formal sector, and therefore one can say that approximately 1.5 crore jobs have been created in the formal sector alone since 2014.

Second, the Mudra revolution. Since its launch in 2015, more than 9.13 crore people have been funded through these collateral-free loans. Of these, more than 2.63 crore people are first-time entrepreneurs. Who are these entrepreneurs? They are those who open and run boutique shops, beauty parlous, carpentry stores, medicine stores, gymnasiums, hosiery manufacturing units and other similar small businesses. Each of these businesses would typically employ at least one person to be able to run successfully. Even those who are not first-time entrepreneurs would have taken loans to expand on the existing business. All of this sums up to livelihood creation by Mudra Yojana in many, many crores at the neo-middle-class level.

If even this data is not convincing, consider the following employment-to-population ratio chart (the ratio of working age population that is employed) for India by the World Bank. Chart 1 below is the overall employment-to-population ratio between 2000 and 2016. The results are stark and drastic.