Mosul: A frontline dispatch from the war against Islamic State

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Mosul is in shock… a sort of state of suspended animation. The Islamic State (IS) group still controls the west of the city, but Government forces control the east.

Over the last month, Iraqi Government forces have routed the so-called IS and seized control over all of the eastern half of Mosul.

It's an important victory against the most feared terror group in the world.

It shows the security forces are up to the task, after they were rebuilt and retrained with the aid of foreign advisers, including Australian soldiers.

And this moment offers an interesting reflection on the role of religion in this conflict.

Mosul is an overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim city — but most of the soldiers are Shiites.

The troops get about town in armoured vehicles festooned with Shiite flags — they chant Shiite war cries before going into battle. And that does irk many locals. But they're not provoking open displays of outrage or protest from the Sunni majority

There is more than a decade of sectarian bloodletting between the two communities so it is fair to assume some level of friction based on these identities.

But there is also something else at play: raw power and security.

The Government forces possess overwhelming firepower — I don't think they have the numbers to properly hold the city and successfully fight for the west side at the same time, but there's nobody right now to rival them.

Many locals are just keeping their heads down, trying to get businesses and lives back on track. And many are glad the cruel rule of IS is over.

Start of a new era?

There's also a sense that both the army and the people want to bury the hatchet. They talk of a new era, where sectarian divisions are less important than a shared Iraqi identity. There's been plenty of official propaganda along these lines and in the battered suburbs, and battered armoured vehicles, there are plenty who hope that's true enough to repeat it themselves.

So, as I walked around the bustling market in east Mosul, where people are selling everything from fruit and veg to looted clothing and electronics, it occurred to me that, in theory, the Government has a window of opportunity to force out IS, get the place secured and start governing fairly and for all.

And, almost as quickly, the doubts set in…

But to understand how deep those doubts run, it's important to forget about the Sunni vs Shia divide for a moment.

Early in the battle for Mosul, the US-based group Human Rights Watch published a report about alleged abuses by one of the many militias that are fighting to support Government forces.

The most powerful of these are Shiite militias backed by Iran with a record of fighting American troops, then running death squads against Sunnis, and, after the rise of IS, leading vengeful operations to reclaim IS-held territory.

So I figured this Human Rights Watch report would be another case of that sort of abuse. But it was, instead about one of the few Sunni militias in the broader, pro-Government group.

They were from a Sunni town that had been liberated by Government forces. But when they went in, they didn't simply set about providing security for their Sunni neighbours, they went around imposing brutal punishment on other Sunni locals accused of collaborating with IS.

Their lack of discipline, and propensity for revenge, coupled with an atmosphere of impunity and weak or non-existent governance pointed to some of the most enduring drivers of instability and conflict, regardless of religion.

Seeing beyond the politics

Human Rights Watch has gathered reports of abuse, arbitrary detention, even summary executions by Sunni militias. And they highlight the need to see beyond the powerful religious and identity politics at play and consider the real lack of justice and accountability that plagues Iraq.

In that sense, the militias are a problem for reasons other than religion: they are a reflection of fractured poles of power — of divides between powerful politicians and their patronage networks — and there are plenty of them, circling the fight.

Now consider the need to police the streets of Mosul — to get law and order back in place, rather than the summary justice of militias and killings amidst the fog of war.

The Government needs to establish authority, not just control.

And there's every chance it will be trying to do that as IS mounts an urban insurgency to fightback.

Security forces are now working through the suburbs of east Mosul checking each house and asking residents for IDs.

They have been detaining suspected IS members. They have also found weapons stores in empty homes — they could just be arms depots that IS can no longer access, now that it's been beaten back.

But they may also point to a plan to resume fighting as an insurgency as government forces move from frontal assaults and turn toward the difficult task of consolidating control and winning the so called peace.

In Mosul most of the civilians stayed put while the Government fought its way back into the city. In contrast, the other cities previously held by IS in western Iraq — Ramadi and Falujah were largely emptied of civilians as the fight progressed.

That allowed Government forces a much freer and, critics would argue, more destructive hand during the fighting. It also allowed them to screen many residents while they fled and before allowing them back in.

With that in mind, those cities carry warning signs for Mosul because, while they haven't descended into a full blown insurgency, they have still been targeted by car bombs, highlighting the simple fact that when the Government eventually declares Mission Accomplished in Mosul — it will simply mean a new mission is about to begin.

Topics: unrest-conflict-and-war, terrorism, iraq