GRAND RAPIDS, MI -- The number of newly reported coronavirus cases and deaths continues to decrease in southeast Michigan, but Kent County’s chief health officer says it could be well into May by the time this side of the state sees decreasing numbers.

Kent County Health Department Director Adam London told MLive on Monday, April 20, the number of new cases and deaths reported in the county continues to climb higher each day because the county is still weeks out from hitting its peak.

“The actual prevalence of illness is increasing, and that’s something we expect because I don’t believe we’re at the peak of illness here in Kent County,” London said. “I think we may still be a month or more away from that.”

He added that part of the increase in new case numbers is thanks to wider availability of testing in recent days. Generally, a positive case is now recorded by the county within a day or two of the actual test, London said.

As of Monday, April 20, the number of cases in Kent County totals 550 and the number of deaths 24, according to county data.

A week before, on April 13, there were 311 cases and 13 deaths. A week before that, on April 6, there were 177 cases and five deaths.

While the number of new cases reported each day continues to rise in Kent County, that figure has declined in recent days statewide, thanks to decreases largely in southeast Michigan.

The difficulty in predicting when the plateau will occur is due in part because there hasn’t been a surge in cases, thanks to social distancing efforts, London said.

Rather than a sudden spike, like he said was seen in southeast Michigan, cases in Kent County and in West Michigan are gradually climbing upward.

“It’s much tougher to predict the top of a plateau when the plateau is shaped like a gentle hill instead of a mountain point, but I think during the month of May is going to be where we feel the most demand, the most cases,” he said.

With Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s revised stay-at-home order to expire on April 30, London said it’s imperative that any reopening of the economy is done in a way to minimize a surge in COVID-19 patients and deaths.

Things won’t exactly go fully back to normal until a vaccine or effective anti-viral medication is produced, he said.

“We need to approach that in a smart way, because this can get ugly in a hurry and it can cost lives by doing that, if it’s not done very carefully,” he said.

London said he understands that people are becoming exhausted with the stay-at-home order. Nonetheless, he urged them to continue following social distancing and hygiene guidelines.

“People in West Michigan have prevented illness. They have saved lives in the past several weeks,” London said. “We’re not through this yet, and so to the extent possible that people can make good decisions, smart decisions to protect themselves and others in the community, it’s greatly appreciated and it has made a difference so far.”

London said his department is concerned as well about the impact of social distancing on suicide rates, overdoses and mental health, as well as the lack of preventative health screenings not happening right now.

“Coronavirus is a very, very serious virus. This pandemic is very serious,” Londson said. “It could get worse if we were to withdraw from all our precautionary actions, but there’s also a lot of other things that we’re worried about right now, including the economy and jobs and poverty. We’re in a difficult spot right now, and we’re all in this together.”

Without social distancing, modeling shows that between 5,000 and 10,000 residents of Kent County alone might have died from coronavirus, London said.

Statewide, there are 32,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 2,468 associated deaths as of Monday.

PREVENTION TIPS

In addition to washing hands regularly and not touching your face, officials recommend practicing social distancing, assuming anyone may be carrying the virus.

Health officials say you should be staying at least 6 feet away from others and working from home, if possible.

Carry hand sanitizer with you, and use disinfecting wipes or disinfecting spray cleaners on frequently-touched surfaces in your home (door handles, faucets, countertops) and when you go into places like stores.

Read more Michigan coronavirus coverage here

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