Are cyberattacks, security breaches, and mounting distrust between the US and Chinese governments ushering in a new Cold War era? Given US officials’ rhetoric and actions in recent months, it might appear that such a sustained state of political and military tensions between the two superpowers is a serious threat.

A number of events have likely precipitated Cold War fears. The disclosures by National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden of dragnet government surveillance, including a revelation that the US has infiltrated the networks of China-based telecommunications company Huawei, have understandably upset the Chinese. Additionally, the increasing number of cyberattacks and security breaches in both the US and China appear to have strained relations.

And considering the “mounting tensions over China’s expanding claims of control over what it argues are exclusive territories in the East and South China Seas, and over a new air defense zone,” diplomatic relations between the two countries appear further strained, according to a report from The New York Times.

“A cool war”

But while US officials are trying to fend off threats of a new Cold War, Harvard Law School scholar Noah Feldman described his belief that rather than entering a new Cold War period, the US and China are instead enmeshed in what he calls a “cool war.”

“What the US and China have in common is that each is a global superpower in a contest for geopolitical supremacy,” Feldman told Ars. “What makes it 'cool' and not cold is that we still have a strong economic partnership with China. While both sides would like to reduce their dependence on the other, neither side wants escalation.”

Feldman said that the two countries have been toeing a delicate diplomatic line since revelations of spying and cyberwarfare have emerged. The Snowden leaks, such as the NSA’s hacking into Chinese network giant Huawei, have created greater tension that neither country wants. The Chinese government, he said, fears a strong nationalist backlash to such revelations.

Easing tensions

What's more, in an apparent effort to smooth over relations between the US and Chinese governments, the Obama administration has held a series of unprecedented briefings for the Chinese military leadership, as described in the New York Times report. Specifically, US officials have met with Chinese leaders to share information regarding America’s policies both for defending against cyberattacks and in using cyber technologies against adversaries, as outlined by the Associated Press.

American officials have analogized their actions to Cold War-era exchanges held with the Soviets so that each side understands the ‘red lines’ for employing nuclear weapons against each other. “Think of this in terms of the Cuban missile crisis” a senior Pentagon official told the Times. “The last thing we would want to do is misinterpret an attack and escalate to a real conflict.”

Feldman suggested that the US government’s willingness to provide some information to China regarding its cyber strategies and China’s apparent refusal to reciprocate by offering its own information are strategic diplomatic responses. He believes the two superpowers have devised this tactic in order to give the appearance that actions are being taken to address US intelligence overreach, when in fact “this is a purely symbolic gesture” intended to quell a nationalist uprising in China. Feldman elaborated:

We all are going to have to get used to the rules of the new game. The rules are being made up as we go along. What two countries do when a third party reveals their spying efforts. The two sides are engaged in a delicate dance... trying to figure out how to continue doing cyberattacks. Neither wants escalation because both sides have too much to lose by unsettling the status quo.

In response to America's reported efforts at candor, China's Defense Minister Chang Wanquan issued a statement alleging that China has limited its cyber operations in accordance with law and is calling on all countries to protect network security. "China has always adhered to the principle of peace, security, openness, and cooperation in cyberspace," he said.

The level of engagement between the US and China is the subject of considerable debate. What is not disputed, however, is that the diplomatic relationship between the two superpowers remains a delicate balancing act that is vital to global stability.