Martin County has a huge Republican plurality, with just under twice as many registered Republicans (56,445 as of Monday) as Democrats (28,695) or "other" (28,434).

But come November, I expect Martin County voters to act like a bunch of liberals.

Which is to say that in certain key races, I don't see how the Republican candidate wins anything close to a 2-1 margin. Some GOP candidates might not win Martin County at all.

This has nothing to do with any "blue wave." Rather, it's all about the "green wave" — the sorry state of our waters, and the likelihood voters will punish those they deem responsible for it.

First and foremost among them: Rick Scott.

MORE: Can you care about the water and vote Republican? | Gil Smart

MORE: Scott, Nelson battle over algae in Senate race

In fact, I'm going to edge out onto a limb and predict that Scott — Florida's Republican governor, now looking to unseat Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson — will fare poorly in Martin County. Maybe very poorly.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Nelson took the county.

Republicans will take umbrage at the mere suggestion, as they did last week when I dared insinuate Republicans are weak on the environment in general.

Look at Congressman Brian Mast, many said. And it's true; Mast has made stopping the discharges from Lake Okeechobee his focus; on Tuesday, he was endorsed by the enviro-activist group Bullsugar.

But it's not pure altruism. Mast, in a "purple" district and facing a challenge from Democrat Lauren Baer, needs an edge. He gets that by showing constituents they'd be up the algae-filled creek without him.

Scott, on the other hand, is up that creek with no paddles in sight.

In the August primary, Scott only got 79.9 percent of the Martin County GOP vote, while 20.1 percent of Republicans opted for his competitor: Roque De La Fuente, who goes by "Rocky."

I'm thinking those voters might have voted for an actual rock over Scott.

And now, in our summer of algae and red tide, Scott has become even more vulnerable. I suspect he lies awake at night (or does he hang from the ceiling like a bat?) and thinks: Of all the years this had to happen, why now?

The answer, in part, is: Because of Rick Scott's policies.

Scott didn't cause the blue-green algae blooms on our shores; those blooms began showing up years before he took office.

Same deal with the red tide on the Gulf coast; red tide occurred naturally hundreds of years before Scott ever set his eyes on Nelson’s Senate seat.

Scott merely made these problems worse.

Scott downsized and defanged the Department of Environmental protection, turning it into an agency more interested in greasing the regulatory skids than cracking down on polluters.

He dramatically slashed the budget for Florida's water management districts and stacked the appointed boards with developers, land use lawyers and others who, as the Tampa Bay Times put it in 2014, were "more interested in granting permits than preservation."

You got a tax break out of this. Isn't that nice? Now look at our water and tell me it was worth it.

Both the state and the feds cut funding for water monitoring during Scott's tenure. In 2012, Scott signed a measure repealing a law that had required septic tank owners to get an inspection every five years. This, at a time when scientists say nutrients leaching from septic systems have become a key contributor to algae blooms.

Again, you might have saved a few bucks. And that was the entirety of the point.

When Scott took office — in 2010, in the wake of the Great Recession — there was an obvious economic rationale for doing what he did. Florida property values had crashed, he had vowed to cut government expenditures and reinvigorate the economy, and I think it's fair to say he did that.

Indeed, if the economy is your most important issue, Scott is your guy. I think it’s unquestionable that his policies have helped Florida continue to boom.

And I was impressed with Scott’s leadership last year during Hurricane Irma. He vowed there would be gasoline on the major thoroughfares, and there was. That and other moves instilled confidence at a panicky time.

But on that one big issue affecting Martin County, you see Scott's legacy in our fouled waters. And I think that's going to haunt him at the ballot box come November —- not just here, but on the Gulf Coast as well.

Maybe he makes up those lost votes in regions that haven't been directly affected by these water crises. But his environmental record is his slimy green Achilles heel. And the worse Florida's waters get, the more vulnerable Scott becomes.

One might think his party, as a whole, would take a lesson from this.

Anyone who thinks, now, that Florida's primary goal should be the continuation of “business-friendly” policies that involve a light regulatory touch is insane.

Conservatism needs to conserve things.

And in this part of Florida, at least, those who fail to heed that message might just fail to conserve their own seats.

Gil Smart is a TCPalm columnist and a member of the Editorial Board. His columns reflect his opinion. Readers may reach him at gil.smart@tcpalm.com, by phone at 772-223-4741 or via Twitter at @TCPalmGilSmart.