By James Kratch | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

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Patti Sapone | The Star-Ledger

Rutgers celebrated its fourth anniversary as an official Big Ten member on Sunday.

Will another school land the same golden ticket and join it in the future?

The college football expansion carousel has stopped. But it may be the calm before another storm.

The ACC and SEC have long-term media rights deals, but the Big Ten's television deal will end after the 2022-23 season. The Pac-12, which has experience internal tumult of late, sees its deal end the following year, and the Big 12's the year after that. With no sign of a live rights bubble yet and streaming services expected to become major players at some point, the climate may be right for another monumental shift in the college sports landscape five years from now.

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Paul Beaty | AP Photo

Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany, a South Orange native, has seen the league expand from 10 members to 14 during his tenure. Penn State was added in 1990, Nebraska in 2011 and Maryland and Rutgers in 2014. He is expected to retire in 2020, which means his successor will be in position to make the conference's next big expansion decision.

Could the Big Ten grow to be a 16-team league? Eighteen? Twenty? Or will it stay put at 14?

We won't know the answer for some time, and the mitigating factors are too hazy and numerous to make a strong bet one way or the other. But conference expansion chatter will always be out there, and potential candidates will always be bandied about.

With that in mind, here's a look at 16 potential expansion candidates who could be in line to join Rutgers in the Big Ten down the road. All television market date comes from this ranking list. Members of the Association of American Universities are noted because 13 of 14 Big Ten programs are current members, and Nebraska used to be one. It is considered an important qualification for the conference.

The list ...

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NOTRE DAME

Current conference: Independent with ACC scheduling agreement.

Television market: N/A.

AAU member? No.

Why it would make sense: It's the Big Ten's dream target. No other potential expansion candidate would bring what the Fighting Irish can deliver – a national following, geographic fit, strong academics, tradition, existing rivalries. You name it, Notre Dame has it.

Why it wouldn't: It's unlikely Notre Dame will join the Big Ten anytime soon for two reasons.

One, it would likely take extraordinary circumstances for the Fighting Irish to give up their independent status. They’ve never budged before, and it’s hard to see why they would change their mind now and give up benefits like their NBC television contract.

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Matt Cashore | USA TODAY Sports

The other: Due to its status as a full ACC member for all sports but football (where it is basically a de facto member), Notre Dame is part of the ACC’s grant of media rights deal, which extends through the 2035-36 academic year and all but boxes in all ACC teams in the meantime. That’s why ACC schools (and SEC schools, which also have a long-term GOR) are not serious candidates to be picked off if/when the carousel starts spinning again. The SEC's main television deal with CBS will be up after 2023, though.

If something unforeseen was to happen, though, and ACC schools became realistically available, the Big Ten (and SEC) would likely pounce. The SEC would likely target Duke and North Carolina (both AAU members) as its top priorities. The Big Ten could do the same, or angle for Georgia Tech (another AAU member) and N.C. State in an effort to open up the Atlanta, Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham markets.

Boston College, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia and Virginia Tech could also be potential Big Ten targets, but those schools would be second-tier candidates. Pitt and Virginia are also AAU members.

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OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS

Current conference: Big 12.

Television market: No. 5 Dallas-Fort Worth, No. 7 Houston, No. 31 San Antonio, No. 39 Austin, No. 41 Oklahoma City.

AAU member? Yes for Texas, no for Oklahoma

Why it would make sense: Oklahoma and Texas are the key players whenever realignment moves back to the forefront. Both boast national programs that would move the needle more than any other potentially available programs. Landing one or both would be a colossal achievement for the Big Ten ... and the Pac-12, which will try too ... and maybe the SEC as well.

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Ian Maule | Tulsa World via AP

Why it wouldn't: Oklahoma and Texas passed on a chance to join the then-Pac-10 a few years back and opted to prop up an imploding Big 12 instead. So there's no guarantee they will decide to make a jump elsewhere the second time around. There's also the question of how the two schools would approach expansion if they do leave.

No one would turn down a Oklahoma-Texas duo. But what happens if Texas wants the Big Ten and Oklahoma wants the SEC? Does the Big Ten take Texas Tech as a cost of doing business? Oklahoma State and its T. Boone Pickens money will probably be able to strong-arm its way into the mix as well. It's also possible, and perhaps likely, that the Pac-12 will need these schools a heck of a lot more than the Big Ten will, and it will be able to present a desperate deal the Big Ten doesn't want to match. Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott (if he can keep his job long enough) has a small advantage in that his league has not yet grown to 14 teams. He has extra room to take on inventory.

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ARIZONA

Current conference: Pac-12.

Television market: No. 11 Phoenix, No. 65 Tucson.

AAU member? Yes.

Why it would make sense: If the Pac-12's current tumult grows worse, the Big Ten could make a bold move to try to expand its footprint almost coast-to-coast, adding a high-academic school with nationally-prominent athletics near fertile recruiting grounds and a major market.

Why it wouldn't: It would be a huge geographic leap for the Big Ten, and one that costs a lot of travel money on the backend for smaller sports. It's also unlikely Arizona would be interested. Pac-12 expert Jon Wilner recently wrote Arizona (and Arizona State, which would likely want/have to stick with UA) would not have interest in jumping to the Big 12 because it would have to abandon its California recruiting pipelines. If Arizona isn't interested in a league that is somewhat close, why would it want to go to one that's even farther away?

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ARMY

Current conference: Independent.

Television market: N/A.

AAU member? No.

Why it would make sense: Army is a national brand with strong academics. It would fit the current footprint and the Army-Navy Game would become part of the Big Ten fabric. Many of the Big Ten schools either play Army or would make for attractive matchups. The Black Knights would make sense as Rutgers' season-ending rivalry opponent.

Why it wouldn't: Army football has made major strides in recent years, but it would be tough for the Black Knights to hold up over the long haul of a Big Ten schedule. Many of its other athletic programs would struggle in the conference, and it's too early to know if the future landscape would spur the Big Ten to consider football-only members. Adding Army doesn't open up any new markets, and it's inevitable the Army-Navy game's mid-December date would complicate a Big Ten team's College Football Playoff resume at some point. Plus Army is unlikely to join a conference again.

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Photo courtesy of Buffalo Athletics

BUFFALO

Current conference: Mid-American Conference.

Television market: No. 53 Buffalo.

AAU member? Yes.

Why it would make sense: The AAU membership is a big draw, as is the fact Buffalo has solid programs across the board and fits the geographic footprint. Buffalo isn't a huge market, but it could provide for penetration into Canada.

Why it wouldn't: It's hard to see Buffalo moving the needle for the Big Ten. If the conference has to add an Eastern school for the sake of balance (and that might happen), there will be better options available.

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CINCINNATI

Current conference: American Athletic Conference.

Television market: No. 35 Cincinnati.

AAU member? No.

Why it would make sense: Cincinnati fits the footprint and has had national-level success in football recently. It also has history with several league members.

Why it wouldn't: The Big Ten doesn't get anything extra from adding Cincinnati, and it's hard to see Ohio State blessing this potential addition.

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Ethan Miller | Getty Images

COLORADO

Current conference: Pac-12.

Television market: No. 17 Denver.

AAU member? Yes.

Why it would make sense: Colorado could be one of the true prizes available if conference expansion cranks up again, and it's possible the Buffaloes could be poached from the Pac-12 for the right price. Colorado has a rivalry with Nebraska and would allow the Big Ten to expand its footprint to a state contiguous to its current alignment.

Why it wouldn't: The Pac-12 is going to fight tooth-and-nail to keep Colorado. Also, if the Buffaloes enter the Big Ten, there would likely have to be an Eastern addition. The league may decide the Denver market isn't big enough to add two more members.

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IOWA STATE

Current conference: Big 12.

Television market: No. 68 Des Moines-Ames.

AAU member? Yes.

Why it would make sense: Iowa and Iowa State have not shared a conference since 1910. But it's not hard to envision a scenario where the Big 12 blows up due to a Pac-12 raid that leaves some of the league's flyover country members in a tough spot. The Cyclones are a clear cultural fit for the conference, and the Iowa-Iowa State game could easily become a Thanksgiving weekend rivalry game instead of its current early-season slot.

Why it wouldn't: The Big Ten adds nothing new with the addition. Sure, the conference could bail out Iowa State if it feels like it, but it isn't running a charity.

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KANSAS

Current conference: Big 12

Television market: No. 21 St. Louis, No. 33 Kansas City (Mo.), No. 67 Wichita.

AAU member? Yes.

Why it would make sense: Conference expansion is never about basketball. But adding Kansas would be a colossal boost for the Big Ten on the court. It also moves the conference into big television markets and a contiguous state that fits the current footprint. Like Iowa State, Kansas may also be seeking a life preserver if the Big 12 collapses.

Why it wouldn't: Kansas would likely try to bring Kansas State with it, and K-State doesn't bring much to the table for the Big Ten. Ultimately, KU would do what it had to do - that's how conference expansion works - but it would likely face overwhelming political pressure to protect K-State from becoming stuck in Conference USA or the Mountain West.

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John Munson | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

NAVY

Current conference: American Athletic Conference.

Television market: N/A.

AAU member? No.

Why it would make sense: All the same reasons as Army, and Navy has been more competitive in football for a longer period.

Why it wouldn't: All the same reasons as Army. Plus Maryland would want nothing to do with an annual series.

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RICE

Current conference: Conference USA.

Television market: No. 7 Houston.

AAU member? Yes.

Why it would make sense: The Buffalo argument, but made in the Southwest. The Big Ten would be able to move into Texas and land a Top-10 media market without threatening its traditional powers long-term. Rice would have the potential to be a second Northwestern in the league.

Why it wouldn't: Rice may be in Houston, but will it ever be popular enough for the Big Ten to truly take advantage of the market? Like Arizona, this move may be too bold, and without the credentials the Wildcats would bring.

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Ed Hille | The Philadelphia Inquirer via AP

TEMPLE

Current conference: American Athletic Conference.

Television market: No. 4 Philadelphia.

AAU member? No.

Why it would make sense: The Big Ten has floated the idea of playing championship events in Philadelphia. Why not add a full-fledged member in the city? Temple would have ready-made rivalries with Maryland, Penn State and Rutgers.

Why it wouldn't: The Big Ten is basically in Philadelphia already, and Temple is will be down the list of top expansion targets. The lack of an on-campus stadium could be a major sticking point, and that battle for Temple seems uphill. Moreover, why would the three current members mentioned above want to have a fourth league member arrive in their backyard?

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UCONN

Current conference: American Athletic Conference.

Television market: No. 32 Hartford-New Haven.

AAU member? No.

Why it would make sense: The Huskies fit the current footprint and have a strong basketball program. And that's about it.

Why it wouldn't: UConn has been passed over by the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten in the past for a reason. Its best hope is to throw its football program under the bus (Independent? Back to FCS? Latch on as a football-only member somewhere?) and get back into the Big East for all other sports.

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Joe Hermitt | PennLive

UMASS

Current conference: Independent.

Television market: No. 10 Boston.

AAU member? No.

Why it would make sense: It's a poor man's UConn with a bigger market.

Why it wouldn't: Again, it's a poor man's UConn, and it doesn't have the past success the Huskies can boast.

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WEST VIRGINIA

Current conference: Big 12.

Television market: No. 73 Charleston-Huntington.

AAU member? No.

Why it would make sense: A top-notch athletics department across all sports that fits the footprint and would bring a slew of exciting football matchups. Rutgers-WVU? Check? Maryland-WVU? Check. Michigan-WVU, Ohio State-WVU, Penn State-WVU? It all sounds pretty great, and it would be.

Why it wouldn't: The academics will be a major issue - likely a deal-breaking one. That and the burning couches.

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WHAT COULD EXPANSION LOOK LIKE?

After running through the list of candidates, one takeaway stood out: There aren’t many slam dunk potential expansion options out there for the Big Ten. Unless it feels it has to add members to keep up, there’s a strong chance the league may decide it’s better off standing pat for the time being.

Oklahoma and Texas would be major additions, but it’s debatable whether either is a true cultural fit for the Big Ten, and the competition would be fierce with the Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC also likely in the mix. The complications that would come with adding one or both (i.e. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech) also have to be taken into account. It seems more likely Oklahoma and Texas won’t join the Big Ten than those schools will. And once they’re off the board, is anyone else who is available really worth it?

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All things being equal, the Big Ten is likely better off trying to expand south than west. That would mean poaching more ACC programs, though, and that will likely be an impossible lift for years to come. There could be enticing options on the table if the Big 12 or Pac-12 implode, but would Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, et al really boost the conference’s drawing power when it comes to media negotiations? Because that's the only thing that really matters. The Big Ten has to make a tremendous amount more cash to expand. No school is going to sign off on roughly the same pie being divided 16 ways instead of 14.

The answer to that question? Probably not. Which is why if we had to venture a guess, the Big Ten is more likely to stay at 14 members going forward than grow to 16 or more. If a meteor hits the landscape again and things radically change? All bets are off. But for now, the status quo – at least as far as the Big Ten is concerned – seems pretty stable.

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HOW WOULD IT IMPACT RUTGERS?

Expansion is not necessarily something Rutgers fans should fear, but there's no reason to root for it either.

Most of the top expansion options are out west, so Rutgers wouldn't have to battle a new neighborhood rival. At the same time, any new conference member now has added reason to recruit New Jersey, and most of the obvious picks have programs that are on par or ahead of Rutgers.

Some potential upsides: Rutgers would no longer be the new guy on the block, and if the television money exploded, Rutgers would be getting a complete share of it, not a partial one, as a full-fledged member.

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John Munson | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

Also, an expanded Big Ten would almost assuredly have to re-align its divisions, particularly if Oklahoma, Texas or both were to join the conference.

The Big Ten would want to make sure it gets as many made-for-primetime matchups out of its national brands as it can. The current division balance would likely limit those options. Rutgers fans have already mused about how things could be different if the loaded East was split up, and the addition of a Big 12 power could bring about such change.

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NJ Advance Media

James Kratch may be reached at jkratch@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamesKratch. Find NJ.com Rutgers Football on Facebook.