Taipei faces greatest global GDP loss

Staff writer, with CNA





Taipei’s economic output faces the highest environmental and humanmade threats in the world, with US$181.2 billion of the city’s total GDP at risk over the next 10 years, according to a survey by Lloyd’s international insurance market in London.

In second place is Tokyo, which risks a possible economic loss of US$153.28 billion, followed by Seoul at US$103.5 billion, Manila at US$101.29 billion and New York at US$90.36 billion, the Lloyd’s City Risk Index shows.

The index is the product of a research partnership between Lloyd’s and the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School.

Eighteen threats were analyzed for the purpose of the survey.

They included wind storms, earthquakes, floods, droughts, volcanic activity, freezing conditions, heatwaves and tsunamis, as well as a market crash, human pandemics, oil price shocks and cyberattacks.

Other threats included sovereign default, terrorism, power outages, plant epidemic, solar storms and nuclear accidents.

The total GDP risk for all 301 cities analyzed was estimated at US$4.56 trillion out of a total projected GDP between this year and 2025 of US$373 trillion.

The top five threats that are likely to cause the greatest economic looses worldwide over the next 10 years are market crash (US$1.05 trillion), human pandemic (US$591.81 billion), wind storms (US$586.54 billion), earthquakes (US$464.75 billion) and floods (US$432.01 billion).

According to the index, Taipei’s combined potential losses from natural threats are the biggest globally.

It ranked Taipei first worldwide for wind storm risk, third for volcano risk, fourth for earthquake risk and seventh for flood risk.

Taipei’s humanmade threats are the fourth-highest globally, with market crash, oil price shock and cyberattack constituting the majority of the city’s humanmade threats, the index shows.