The likelihood of star NFL players changing teams has increased dramatically since the advent of unrestricted free agency and the salary cap. Despite this reality, high-caliber veteran quarterbacks don’t switch teams with the same frequency as players at other positions. Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers are still with their original teams more than a decade after entering the NFL.

Tony Romo seemed destined to spend his entire career with the Cowboys before he fractured a vertebra in his back during Dallas’ third preseason game. The injury changed Romo’s career trajectory. He lost his nearly decade-long stranglehold on the Cowboys starting quarterback job to Dak Prescott, the eventual 2016 Offensive Rookie of the Year, while sidelined several weeks recovering from the back injury.

It’s no longer a matter of if Romo will be in a different uniform next season. Where Romo lands and whether he plays at a discounted rate is one of the NFL’s biggest offseason storylines.

Tony Romo has the NFL’s largest 2017 cap number at $24.7M on a $14M base salary next season. USATSI

Romo hoping for release

Romo’s preference of Dallas releasing him so he can choose his next destination appears to be more likely than a trade, which can’t occur until the 2017 league year begins March 9. The Cowboys might not be able to get more than a mid-round draft pick for Romo, who turns 37 in April, given his age and injury history.

The Packers received a conditional 2009 fourth-round pick that ultimately was a third-round pick from the Jets in a 2008 trade for a soon-to-be 39-year-old Brett Favre. This compensation had the potential to become as much as a first-round pick depending on the Jets and Favre’s performance in 2008. Favre was coming off of a 2007 season in which he led Green Bay to the NFC Championship Game and was named an All-Pro.

Romo has the NFL’s largest 2017 salary cap number at $24.7 million on a $14 million base salary next season. He is scheduled to make $19.5 million and $20.5 million in 2018 and ‘19, which are the last two years of his contract. These three years don’t contain any salary guarantees.

Any team interested in dealing for Romo must have enough salary cap room to absorb his $14 million 2017 salary in order to make a trade. Once acquired, the new team can renegotiate or restructure Romo’s contract to decrease his $14 million cap number and/or salary.

The Cowboys will have a $19.6 million salary cap charge for Romo relating to the bonus proration in his 2013 extension and subsequent contract restructurings for cap purposes in 2014 and ‘15 regardless of the nature and timing of his departure. This cap charge for a player no longer on a team’s roster is commonly referred to as dead money.

The entire $19.6 million will be on Dallas’ books if Romo is released or traded before June 2. A total of $5.1 million of cap room will be gained immediately. Romo’s $25.2 million and $23.7 million cap numbers for 2018 and ‘19 will be wiped away with the roster move in one of these manners.

A new team can renegotiate or restructure Romo’s contract to decrease his cap number and/or salary. USATSI

The cap hit will be taken over 2017 and ‘18 with either transaction occurring after June 1 or releasing Romo with a post-June 1 designation, which can’t be used until March 9 after the new league year starts. NFL teams can release two players each year before June 1 that will be treated under the cap as if they were released after June 1.

With a post-June 1 designation, a team is required to carry the player’s full cap number ($24.7 million for Romo) until June 2 even though he is no longer a part of the roster. The player’s salary, $14 million in Romo’s case, comes off the books at that time unless it is guaranteed. Dallas will have $10.7 million of dead money in 2017, which will free up $14 million of cap space. Romo remains on Dallas’ books in 2018 with an $8.9 million cap charge.

Veteran quarterback dynamics

There’s a strong belief publicly that if released Romo should be willing to play the remainder of his career significantly below the going rate of veteran starting quarterbacks, particularly with a potential Super Bowl contender, because of durability concerns and his substantial career earnings. The insight I gained into the player’s mindset during my numerous years as an agent suggests that it won’t happen unless absolutely necessary. Players typically think they are worth their contracts after being let go. An agent usually attempts to get the money his client was scheduled to make from a new team on better terms than in the old contract or in some instances a pay raise when a player is released.

Romo’s remaining contract of $54 million over three years is reasonable for a healthy starting quarterback. In 2016, the average yearly salary for a starting quarterback on a veteran contract was just above $19.475 million, which is close to a 13 percent increase from 2015’s $17,283,333 number. This figure is expected to go up for 2017 with Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford potentially receiving long-term contracts that should exceed Andrew Luck’s $24.594 million per year, which makes him the NFL’s highest-paid player.

Outside of Tom Brady, veteran quarterbacks with considerable career earnings aren’t in the habit of leaving money on the table. Drew Brees and Carson Palmer established the market for older veteran quarterbacks last year with one-year extensions with the Saints and Cardinals worth $24.25 million and $21 million, respectively. Both players are older than Romo. Brees and Palmer had also made several million more than Romo’s during their careers when signing their new deals. Manning, Rivers and Roethlisberger had comparable career earnings to Romo’s, which exceed $125 million, prior to signing extensions in 2015 that made them among the league’s highest paid players.

Andrew Luck, who makes $24.594 million per year, is currently the NFL’s highest-paid player. USATSI

Favored destinations

Bovada, a popular online sportsbook, posted odds last week for where Romo will be playing next season. The Broncos are the favorites with 3-1 odds. The Chiefs and Texans have the next best odds at 7-2 and 5-1.

These three teams should have the most appeal to Romo. They are ready-made teams that could be legitimate Super Bowl contenders with better quarterback play.

Romo would be an attempt for Denver to replicate the success recently experienced with an older quarterback that had an injury history, Peyton Manning, particularly if Romo can perform like he did in 2014 when he was last healthy. Romo was a second team All-Pro in 2014 when he led the NFL with a 113.2 passing rating and 69.9 completion percentage.

Denver is in the best position from a salary cap standpoint. The financial investment at quarterback is extremely modest. 2016 starter Trevor Siemian is making $615,000 on a $628,196 salary cap number next season. 2016 first-round pick Paxton Lynch’s 2017 salary cap number is a little above $2.15 million.

Denver must address the offensive line regardless of the quarterback but especially if Romo is signed. Romo has had a difficult time staying healthy the last couple of years in Dallas behind arguably the NFL’s best offensive line. In Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) 2016 season ending offensive line rankings, Denver’s was 24th.

The Broncos are currently the favorites to land Romo for the 2017 season. USATSI

Alex Smith has taken the Chiefs to the playoffs in three of his four seasons in Kansas City. He has a 1-3 playoff record and hasn’t gotten the Chiefs past the divisional round of the playoffs. Coach Andy Reid recently reiterated his confidence in Smith despite the growing sentiment that the Chiefs have reached their ceiling with him under center.

The Chiefs have one of the NFL’s most challenging salary cap situations for next season with about $2 million of cap space once factoring in tenders for restricted free agents and exclusive rights players, assuming the 2017 salary cap is at $168 million. The NFL’s preliminary projections put the salary cap between $166 million and $170 million.

Should Reid have a change of heart, $9.7 million of cap room will be gained by removing Smith’s $16.9 million cap number and next season’s non-guaranteed $13.3 million salary from the equation through a trade or release. A short-term Romo deal could be easily structured with a 2017 cap number significantly less than Smith’s cap savings.

The Texans gave Brock Osweiler a four-year, $72 million contract containing $37 million fully guaranteed at the start of free agency last year after just seven career starts. He was supposed to be a significant upgrade at quarterback over the much-maligned Brian Hoyer. Instead, the Texans defended their AFC South title last season on the strength of the NFL’s top-ranked defense and in spite of the big money free agent.

Osweiler ranked near the bottom in a majority of major statistical categories in 2016 before losing his starting job to Tom Savage when he was pulled from Week 15’s contest against the Jaguars. Savage suffering a concussion paved the way for Osweiler to return to the lineup in time for the playoffs.

The Texans can’t realistically move on from Osweiler next season because his $16 million 2017 base salary is fully guaranteed. Osweiler’s dismal play and the guarantee have destroyed his trade value. His 2017 salary cap number is $19 million. Houston would have a $25 million cap charge by releasing Osweiler. This is because of the guarantee and $6 million of signing bonus proration from his 2018 and 2019 contract years immediately hitting Houston’s books.

Brock Osweiler’s $16 million 2017 base salary is fully guaranteed. USATSI

It isn’t helpful for Houston to prevent the future bonus proration from accelerating onto the 2017 salary cap by waiting until June 2 to release Osweiler or giving him a post-June 1 designation. There would still be a $19 million salary cap charge next year, which is the same as his 2017 cap number, under these circumstances.

The Texans can get rid of Osweiler after the 2017 season when there are no longer salary guarantees in his contract. There will be $6 million of dead money by cutting Osweiler in 2018.

The Chiefs and Texans can only realistically obtain Romo if his deal has a low 2017 salary cap number. Romo’s 2017 cap number is less of a concern for the Broncos since they are expected to have over $40 million of cap room.

How Romo gets paid on a low 2017 cap number

It wouldn’t be a surprise if Romo sought a contract where his compensation is the same ballpark as other quality starting quarterbacks provided he stays healthy. This type of deal could look like the following:

Guaranteed money: $20 million



$20 million Contract length: Three years (2020 voids)



Three years (2020 voids) Average per year: $18 million



$18 million Deal total: $54 million



$54 million Maximum value: $66 million



Year Base salary Roster bonus Roster bonus per game Bonus proration Salary cap number 2017 $1,000,000 $11,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,750,000 $4,625,000

Roster bonus, base salary fully guaranteed (skill, injury & salary cap) Roster bonus is earned 3 days after signing 2018 $18,000,000

$2,000,000 $2,750,000 $22,750,000

$6 million fully guaranteed; remaining $12 million is fully guaranteed if any 2017 incentives are earned 2019 $18,000,000

$2,000,000 $2,750,000 $22,750,000 2020 $25,000,000



$2,750,000 $27,750,000

2020 contract year automatically voids 5 days before 2020 league year starts

Individual incentives (2017 only) -- $3 million

$1.5 million for at least 90 percent offensive playtime



$500,000 for 4,000 or more passing yards



$500,000 for a passer rating of at least 100 (minimum of 224 pass attempts)



$500,000 for 30 or more touchdown passes



Team incentives (annual) -- $3 million

$500,000 for a playoff win & at least 50 percent regular season offensive playtime



$750,000 for a conference championship appearance & at least 50 percent regular season offensive playtime

$750,000 for a Super Bowl appearance & at least 50 percent regular season offensive playtime

$1 million for a Super Bowl win & at least 50 percent regular season offensive playtime



Making sense of the suggested contract

A significant portion of Romo’s 2017 compensation will need to be prorated over the length of the deal in order to be cap friendly initially. A voidable 2020 contract year was added to make Romo’s 2017 cap number more team friendly. This is usually accomplished with a signing bonus. Romo has a fully guaranteed roster bonus instead to allow him to retire after the 2017 season without the team being able to recover money from him. The team would have the right to recoup the $8.25 million prorated over the last three years if signing bonus. This same type of team right doesn’t exist with a roster bonus.

Romo can make the same $14 million as in his current contract by remaining on the field all season. The per game roster bonus in 2017 and the other years provide the team some financial and cap relief with injuries. The per game amount is only payable if a player is on the 46-man active roster for that particular game. For example, Colin Kaepernick had $2 million roster bonuses ($125,000 per game) in most years of his 2014 extension. When he went on injured reserved in 2015 after nine games, he lost out on $875,000 of this $2 million.

Romo’s ability to stay on the field -- which he’s had trouble doing lately -- will be a big factor. Getty Images

Only $875,000, seven games worth of the roster bonus, would count against the cap at signing because that’s how many games Romo was active for in 2016. The team would incur a $125,000 cap charge for each game Romo is on the 46-man roster beginning with his eighth game. The reverse would also be true. There would be $125,000 credit cap for each game if Romo wasn’t active at least seven times during the 2017 season.

Romo has the opportunity for his 2017 compensation to be on par with 2016 veteran starting quarterbacks with individual and team success through incentives. The contract could be worth as much as $66 million over the three years by consistently leading his new team to the highest level. The deal is essentially a two-year commitment because of the $6 million salary guarantee. There would be $14.25 million of dead money by releasing Romo after just one season.

Any 2017 incentives with higher thresholds than Romo’s 2016 individual statistical achievements would be classified as not likely to be earned (NLTBE) incentives during the season. Romo has absurdly low NLTBE thresholds for next season because he only threw four passes for 29 yards and one touchdown while only taking seven of Dallas’ 1,058 offensive snaps in 2016. The team achievements would also qualify as NLTBE since they are being paired with Romo’s playtime. Earned incentives wouldn’t hit the team’s salary cap until after the season ended and would be deducted from 2018 cap room if necessary.

The individual categories were taken from the incentives and salary escalators in Robert Griffin III and Tyrod Taylor’s contracts, which are on the lower end for starting quarterbacks. The actual thresholds approximate the average 2016 statistical performance of the six quarterbacks (Brady, Carr, Prescott, Rodgers, Roethlisberger and Ryan) originally selected to last season’s Pro Bowl. The six completed 66.4 percent of their passes for an average of slightly over 4,050 passing yards with 31 touchdown passes and just under seven interceptions to post a 104.8 passer rating while playing in approximately 15 games with 90.4 percent playing time.

The team incentives were based on Sam Bradford and Ryan Fitzpatrick’s contracts. Bradford’s two-year, $35 million contract containing $22 million fully guaranteed has $2 million of annual incentives tied to team success. The amount ranges from $250,000 for the Vikings winning a wild-card game where he takes at least 50 percent of Minnesota’s offensive snaps to $2 million for a Super Bowl win with the same playtime requirement. Fitzpatrick’s one-year deal for $12 million had $500,000 for a playoff win with 50 percent or more offensive playtime in that game, $1.5 million for making the conference championship game with at least 50 percent offensive playtime during the regular season or $3 million for a Super Bowl appearance with the same regular-season playtime requirement as the conference championship game appearance.

Bears general manager Ryan Pace was a college teammate of Romo’s at Eastern Illinois. USATSI

Final thoughts

More contract flexibility by Romo may be required with the Broncos if KUSA’s Mike Klis’ report of Denver being interested as long as the price tag doesn’t reach the $13 million-per-year neighborhood. Broncos general manager and executive vice president of football operations John Elway had discussions with the 49ers prior to last year’s NFL Draft about acquiring a disgruntled Kaepernick. The quarterback’s unwillingness to take a significant pay cut to the $7 million range prevented the trade from happening. Presumably, the more of a discount Romo is willing to take, the easier any incentives should be to make with a higher overall amount that can be earned.

The Bears, who have Bovada’s fifth-best odds at 15-2, aren’t nearly as ready made as the other three teams after going 3-13 in 2016. Parting ways with quarterback Jay Cutler will give the Bears over $60 million in cap space to remake the roster. Chicago’s cap room will exceed $70 million if outside linebacker Lamarr Houston and wide receiver Eddie Royal are released. General manager Ryan Pace, who was a college teammate of Romo’s at Eastern Illinois, and coach John Fox may be most willing to meet the four-time Pro Bowler’s contract demands because their jobs could be in jeopardy with a third straight losing season in which the Bears are last in NFC North.