Trade fight with China could hurt Missouri farmers. The upside: cheaper bacon.

This story was updated after publication to include comments from Rep. Billy Long and Austin Petersen.

JEFFERSON CITY — Higher taxes imposed by China on American soybean and pork exports could impact Missouri more than most other states.

While the additional 25-percent levies could depress demand for pork produced in Missouri, consumers could enjoy corresponding reductions in price on bacon. And some observers say the potential for economic upheaval could affect pivotal political races later in 2018 — like the race for one of Missouri's U.S. Senate seats.

The Chinese government has announced $50 billion in tariffs on more than 100 U.S. goods, including soybean, pork, automobiles and aircraft. The maneuvers are part of an escalating battle over trade between Beijing and Washington, fueled in part by President Donald Trump's previous decision to raise taxes on Chinese solar and laundry equipment.

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Missouri is one of the top pork-producing states in the country, according to research compiled by the University of Missouri Extension. It was ranked sixth in the U.S. in 2016, with exports worth about $277.8 million.

Don Nikodim, executive director of the Missouri Pork Association, said Wednesday that while "China's a big one and we want 'em back," the tariff announcement "isn't the end of the world."

The big pork production areas in southwest Missouri are in Lamar and Nevada, Nikodim said. He noted that while Moon Ridge Foods in Pleasant Hope has temporarily stopped production, the company had indicated that it would resume work and would not shut down for good.

Nikodim highlighted the difference in demand between the Chinese and U.S. markets.

"They tend to buy a lot of meat products that we don't typically consume here," Nikodim continued. "They don't buy the high-value cuts," instead preferring parts like hearts, tongues or entrails. "I don't think they're a big bacon buyer, in our market anyway."

While China's tariffs could make conditions tougher for Missouri producers, Nikodim said, the increased levies might make pork products cheaper for local consumers.

That could be true, but only in the short run, said David Mitchell, a professor of economics at Missouri State University.

The potential pork tariff increase, Mitchell said, would increase the cost in China to buy pig products from the U.S. Price is inversely correlated to demand, so Chinese consumers would hypothetically buy less from the American hog industry, causing U.S. producers to compensate.

"If the tariff hits, and you have a hog farm, you're not just going to shut down," Mitchell explained, saying that Missouri pork producers might look to offload the product they previously exported in domestic markets. "In essence, you're dumping the product here."

Doing so would likely mean lowering the cost of products like bacon closer to home.

"Everybody can do that for a short amount of time," Mitchell said, "but nobody can do it forever."

So cheaper bacon could be had for a time — unless and until domestic pork producers start to go out of business, Mitchell said. When that happens, prices could be expected to rise.

Both of Missouri's U.S. senators have sounded alarms about the looming prospect of a trade war between two global powers.

During a recent Springfield visit, Republican Sen. Roy Blunt said he disagrees with Trump's penchant for trade skirmishing and called the president's proposed steel and aluminum tariffs "a big mistake." He added that the president's trade-related threats — such as pledges to scrap the North American Free Trade Agreement — could impact the global economy.

Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill said she was "eager to improve our trade deals so they’re better delivering for Missouri’s working families and businesses."

"But our agriculture producers and manufacturers need stable, consistent leadership when it comes to negotiating those deals, and I agree with my Republican colleagues who’ve said the Administration needs to scale back this escalating situation before it becomes a trade war that does nothing but slam some of Missouri’s most critical economic engines," said McCaskill, who had previously reacted with concern after Trump promoted new tariffs on steel and aluminum.

McCaskill's re-election efforts are among the most closely watched in the nation. She is positioning herself to face Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley, who appears to be the leading Republican candidate.

The midterm elections are in November. Some political observers have raised the possibility that farmers facing economic turmoil due to a tariff fight could back Democrats in states where Trump won in 2016. Others contend that the tariffs are merely a bargaining chip and won't significantly affect Republicans at the polls.

In a statement Wednesday, Hawley sounded notes similar to messages he posted on Twitter in early March. He noted that most of the U.S.'s trade partners "follow the same rules we do," but "one in particular doesn't: China."

"China systematically abuses the global trade system and we should respond firmly to defend American workers," Hawley continued. "One of my top concerns is to ensure there is no retaliation against our agricultural community — including Missouri farmers — and that we are not punishing trade partners who do follow the rules in the process."

Rep. Billy Long's office provided a statement from the Congressman on Thursday afternoon.

"I have long been a free trader and am opposed to tariffs. That being said, we cannot let China run roughshod over us," said Long, R-Missouri, in the statement. "I have sponsored legislation in the past to stop them from circumventing our trade policies relating to transshipments and countervailing duties that damage businesses in Missouri's 7th Congressional District.

"The President is known for his negotiating prowess and it appears he has gotten China's attention and things look to be moving to the negotiating phase."

GOP Senate candidate Austin Petersen noted Friday that "no one wins in a trade war — most certainly not the American people.

"Unlike my GOP primary opponent, who continues to waffle on this and serve up platitudes, I've been clear about my stance from the very beginning," Petersen continued. "I stand with Missouri's farmers, small business owners, and Missouri families. If China wants to throw rocks in their harbors, let them. We should not respond in-kind."

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There were more than 20,000 soybean-related jobs in Missouri in 2016, according to the Missouri Soybean Association. About 60 percent of those were in farming, with the rest in either soy processing or refining.

Much of Missouri's soybean farming occurs in the flat lands of northern Missouri. But southwest Missouri has its share of soybean acreage as well, notably in Vernon and Jasper counties, according to the soybean association.

Soybeans are Missouri's top agricultural export, according to the Missouri Department of Agriculture, and China is one of the state's biggest trading partners. As Bloomberg noted, increasing the import tax will have a stronger impact on Missouri and other heartland states where more beans are grown compared to the rest of the country.

In addition to soybean and pork farmers, cotton producers in southeast Missouri could also be hit hard, said Blake Hurst, president of the Missouri Farm Bureau. He added that if global trade shrinks because of the tariffs, "we're all going to be poorer."

Asked what could be done about that, Hurst laughed. He reasoned that because Trump's tariffs aren't immediately effective and because China's return salvo has no official start date, there's a chance negotiations will stave off the competing trade tactics.

"Hopefully, sanity will prevail," Hurst said, "and we come to some sort of agreement and get these off the table."