The Notre Dame Fighting Irish got back into the win column with an 88-81 victory over Wake Forest.

New Starting Lineup

After inserting Austin Torres into the starting lineup for the North Carolina game, Head Coach Mike Brey decided to “go small” against Wake Forest. He named Rex Pflueger (6’6) as a starter alongside VJ Beachem, Matt Farrell, Steve Vasturia, and Bonzie Colson. It looks like this will be the trend moving forward.

“It helps us offensively,” Brey said after the UNC game regarding the small lineups. “We’ve gotta score. We’ll keep two big guys ready, but small is the way to go.”

Going small makes things difficult for the Irish defensively, as they are susceptible to giving up a lot of offensive rebounds and points in the paint. But it has its advantages as well, particularly on the offensive end. Brey is betting the positives will outweigh the negatives.

The Irish play at the 223rd fastest pace in the country (per KenPom) but taking advantage of transition opportunities can greatly enhance the team’s offensive success. A smaller lineup with four solid shooters on the floor is better suited to getting up the floor quick. And when the defense struggles to get back and matchup with all these shooters, the Irish can make them pay.

Transition opportunities are the easiest way for the Irish, who are hitting 40% of their 3-pointers, to get open looks. But of course, transition opportunities require first getting stops on the defensive end.

Bonzie Has Space

When the Irish have four shooters on the floor, there is a ton of room for Bonzie Colson to go to work in the post. Defenders are hesitant to help off shooters.

Now, look what life for Bonzie is like when another big man, in this case Geben, shares the floor. This was one of the short “two-big man stints” of the Wake Forest game.

Since Geben can’t shoot and isn’t stationed at the 3-pt line, his defender just camps in the paint and blocks Colson’s shot.

Bonzie probably should have tried to make a pass to Geben here. As great as he is in the post, he can sometimes have blinders on and only look to score when he’s posting up. He’s not a great passer out of the post and doesn’t always look to do so enough. But if defenders stick with the shooters like in the first clip, Bonzie should definitely try and make them pay.

While we’re on the topic of Colson, he made 2-2 threes against Wake Forest. If he gets hot with his shot it would add a new level to the Irish offense.

What To Make Of The Wake Forest Victory

On a points per possession basis, the Irish had an incredible offensive performance against the Demon Deacons, their best in the last ten games. Coupled with a solid offensive performance against North Carolina as well (also used small lineups extensively in this game), it seems like the smaller lineups with four shooters are having the desired effect so far.

But before getting too excited, it’s worth mentioning that Wake Forest is the worst defense (per KenPom) that the Irish have played in the last ten games.

(Table displays Irish points per possession performance against teams and their KenPom defensive rank)

The Irish have struggled this season when they face balanced teams: teams that are good enough defensively to make things tough on the Irish’s strong offense and good enough offensively to make the Irish pay for their questionable defense.

As a result, Notre Dame is 1-6 overall and 0-4 in its last ten against teams that have both a top 50 offense and defense (UNC, Duke, Virginia, and Florida State).

(Table displays opponents points per possession performance against the Irish and their KenPom offensive rank)

Averaging the offensive and defensive rankings of Irish opponents over the last 10 games, I found that Notre Dame has faced on average the 21st best defensive team and the 21st best offensive team in the country (cool that it worked out this way).

Therefore, this 10-game sample in a sense gives insight into how the Irish compare against the “21st best team in country” (Irish are ranked 25th overall: 16th offense, 66th defense)

Using the Irish’s average number of possessions per game (67.5) and using the points per possession data from the last ten games, I found that the Irish would score 67 points and allow 75 against this theoretical “21st best” opponent.

This answers one question whether the Irish are in the same tier as the top 20 or so teams in the country. Notre Dame is capable of beating these teams in a given game, but whether they are actually on their level is another question. Perhaps the lineup adjustments will enable the Irish to jump into this next tier, but the Irish will have to prove it by beating an upper-echelon opponent.

Pick and Roll Defense

It will be interesting to monitor the Irish’s pick-and-roll defensive approach moving forward. The team usually has its big men ‘hedge’ out on screens like below.

The big-man (Colson) “hedges” out to slow down the ball handler a bit, giving Vasturia the chance to recover. Colson then retreats to guard his original man. Beachem, who was temporarily helping guard Colson’s man, then retreats to his original defensive assignment.

But against Wake Forest, Colson seemed to be switching screens on the P&R (pick/roll) more than usual.

Having all five defenders switch screens is a strategy that often coincides with “going small,” so this might be why Brey went with this defensive approach for a lot of the game. In general, I’m in favor of switching the P&R, but I’m not sure Colson should be doing so the majority of the time.

He did alright in limited opportunities against Wake Forest, but it will be hard for him to keep defending quicker guys on the perimeter. And especially when the Irish go small, they desperately need his defensive rebounding inside.

Here, a Bonzie switch leads to a Wake Forest offensive board. Rex Pflueger is left to switch on to Colson’s matchup, and he is unsurprisingly unable to get the rebound over the 6’10 John Collins.

If a screener sets a great pick, switching makes more sense. But the Irish shouldn’t switch unnecessarily if a switch can be avoided.

FYI: Small Lineups Are Not Gonna Rebound

I know I’ve discussed this extensively, but I think the tradeoffs of small lineups need to be emphasized. In the last two games, Irish opponents have grabbed 37.8% and 48.6% of available offensive rebounds. Over the course of a season, this average of 43.2% offensive boards allowed would rank dead last in the nation by a large margin.

Make Quick Pass Off The P&R

When the Irish space the floor with four shooters, they like to run the pick-and-roll and make the defense work. When the defense slips up or is late on a rotation, the Irish can make them pay from three.

But teams have been defending the Irish pick-and-roll pretty well in conference play, taking away a lot of these open looks. There have been several instances of the Irish running pick-and-rolls and just not getting much out of them.

Looking for an open shooter off of the P&R is well and good, but in several instances, it seems like the pass to the roll man has been neglected.

Beyond looking for open shooters, there are other reasons the pass to the roll man might not be made. It might be tough for Geben in the above clip, to catch the ball, take a few dribbles towards the rim, and score/pass. These sound like simple things, but big men aren’t quite as skilled at them. Colson is better than Geben, but this area of playmaking isn’t his strength either.

And sometimes there isn’t always a clear entry pass to the roll man. The Irish, who have the third lowest turnover percentage in the nation (per KenPom), may be taught not to force passes like below.

But especially when defenses work to take away the three, I’ve felt that the Irish need to try to hit the roll man more consistently. If nothing else, the pass gets the ball moving and prevents stagnant possessions like above. For whatever reason, Farrell has been a bit hesitant to pass to the roll man for much of the season, and he can occasionally over-dribble in the P&R.

But recently, the Irish seem to be looking for the roll man more, and it’s been effective.