Posted by Prof. Goose on June 4, 2007 - 9:00am

NB: New Thread Created on Front Page at Noon EDT on 6/7, here is a link to our most recent (4th) Gonu thread. The second thread (6/5) can be found here and the third thread can be found here. The most recent thread will always be available at the top of The Oil Drum's front page.

Please put all new resources and insights on Iran/Oman there--but also make sure to scroll through this thread and bring over things we might have missed to the new comment thread.

Exclusive--Please credit THE OIL DRUM and Chuck Watson of KAC/UCF.

KAC/UCF and Chuck Watson are forecasting, based on their damage models, that the Qalhat (Sur) LNG terminal will be out for 20-30 days and the Mina al Fahal oil terminal will be down for 10-15 days--all of this assuming they are built to US standards.

If you have any insights, please email the editors box with the word GONU in the subject.

Last updated at 10:30am EDT.

Why might Gonu matter? Well, that answer begins with the fact that the world production of petroleum plateauing around 85 mbbl/day, any slight blip in supply or exporting could be quite noticeable on the world markets. A sizeable portion of the world's petroleum exports go through the Gulf of Oman.

Particularly, Oman matters in this because it produces 743,000 bbl/day; Oman is also a net exporter, non-OPEC, whose production peaked earlier in the decade. (Thanks to Mike from Green Car Congress for the link.).

Of course, this storm also has the potential to affect Iran, UAE, India, and/or Pakistan for that matter--mainly because of shipping disruptions, but there could be some real effects on infrastructure and assets depending on track and landfall. There are also refining and other production assets in Southern Iran, especially in Chah Bahar.

(One will note, as you explore the old comment thread that many of these possibilities are explored...there's a lot of material that we are still sorting through on Iran, shipping lanes, storm surge, etc.)

Resources put under the fold (hit "There's more" to load).