Olivia is centered about 1,400 miles east of the Big Island and is headed to the west at 16 mph in its general direction.

The Category 3 storm, packing winds of 115 mph, has weakened since Thursday, when it was briefly a Category 4. Additional, steady weakening is predicted by the National Hurricane Center over the next five days.

By the time it approaches the Hawaiian islands on Wednesday from the northeast, its peak winds are forecast to ease to 65 mph, meaning it would be downgraded to a tropical storm.

Bob Henson, who pens Weather Underground’s Category 6 blog, notes there is “no precedent” for a tropical storm or hurricane to strike Hawaii from the east-northeast direction.

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Only four tropical storms or hurricanes on record have directly passed over the islands (many more have come close) in historical records, and they’ve all come in from the south or southeast.

Because the storm is still five to six days away, it’s not possible to know which, if any, islands it might directly pass over and hit hardest. And its exact intensity is also a tough call.

But the storm has the potential to bring more heavy rain and gusty winds to the islands just over two weeks after they were sideswiped by Hurricane Lane. That storm unloaded more than 50 inches of rainfall on the Big Island, the second most for any tropical weather system to affect the United States.

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Climate change models project the number of hurricanes affecting Hawaii to increase in future decades. Two of the four tropical storms and hurricanes to cross directly over the islands have happened in the past four years: Tropical Storm Darby in 2016 and Tropical Storm Iselle in 2014, both on the Big Island.

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While Hawaii monitors Olivia and the East Coast watches Florence, Guam may need to brace for Typhoon Mangkhut, which could unleash serious wind, rain and waves on the island early next week.