But It Is Unclear Whether Leads in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania Are Indicators of a Trend Or 'Bumps' from Clinching Democratic Nomination

Jon Ponder Byon 6/19/2008, 3:55am PT

Guest blogged by Jon Ponder, Pensito Review.

There is good news for the campaign of Barack Obama in polls from states that are traditionally keys to winning the general election. However, it is too soon to tell if the upticks are indicators of a trend toward Obama or simply "bumps" resulting from his finally clinching the Democratic nomination from Hillary Clinton.

Quinnipiac Polls in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania released Wednesday indicate that Barack Obama leads John McCain in all three battleground states...

Sen. Obama leads 47 percent to 43 percent in Florida, within the margin of error. His support among black voters is overwhelming at 95 percent. He carries female voters as well, 50 percent to 40 percent. But Sen. McCain leads among men 47 percent to 44 percent, and easily carries white voters overall, 50 percent to 40 percent. Pennsylvania voters continue their trend of leaning Democratic, giving Sen. Obama a solid lead of 52 percent to 40 percent. The Democrat dominates among women, 57 percent to 34 percent, but Sen. McCain leads among men. Among white voters, Sen. Obama leads by a narrow margin, 47 percent to 44 percent. The Ohio results might be the best news for Sen. Obama. He is leading there 48 percent to 42 percent, Quinnipiac finds. Ohio has been key to Republican general-election strategies for a generation. President Bush won there narrowly in 2004, propelling him to victory over Democrat John Kerry. Sen. Obama's Ohio advantage is attributed in large measure to women, among whom he holds a 51 percent-to-39 percent advantage. The two candidates are virtually tied among men, with Sen. McCain up 46 percent to 45 percent. Sen. Obama dominates with black voters, while Sen. McCain narrowly carries white voters, 47 percent to 44 percent.

The fact that Obama is doing well among women in these three states suggests Hillary Clinton supporters are shifting their support to Obama, despite early polling that found that as many as 20 percent of Clinton voters saying they would vote for McCain or simply stay home.

A recent survey in Virginia from Public Policy Polling gave Obama a nominal lead, 47 percent to McCain's 45 percent, which is within the margin of error. Still, any lead at all for a Democrat is remarkable in Virginia, which has been a Republican stronghold in presidential elections for decades.

In Wisconsin, SurveyUSA shows Obama with a strong lead over McCain, 52 percent to 43 percent.

A Rasmussen poll from Michigan gives Obama a slight lead, 45 percent to 42 percent.

Reacting to the overall numbers, Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said, "Here's the real question: Is this all the bump he's getting from wrapping up the nomination? ... If this is the entire bump, it's not that big a bump."



