It has been the most problematic period of the Rodger’s regime over the last two weeks. At such times all perceived woes get an airing. Are the underlying performance problems at Celtic all that complex to understand?

If we look at the issues surrounding the Celtic playing squad there are many. But I posit most can either be tolerated, worked around or addressed in time. I’d list those as:

A top-quality back up to Gordon. (Bain is ok for now)

The right back problem. (Gamboa and Ralston are both capable in the short term)

The lack of back up to Brown who can truly play “6”. (rest him in the right games)

A replacement for Armstrong such that Ntcham is not the only central midfield line breaker. (change shape)

How to keep two from three good quality strikers fit. (*drums fingers*)

Nursing Sinclair back to form. (Since I wrote my last Sinclair article he has looked better!)

Ensuring reliable wing play beyond Forrest and Tierney. (Come on Morgan!)

The lack of back up to Tierney has been patched up with the return of Izaguirre. (It’ll do for now)

The most pressing and immediate problem to solve is central defence.

I wrote The Problem Position on 17th February 2018. If anything, the situation is now markedly worse.

Basically, there are two issues:

The quality of the central defenders available – see below. The lack of continuity of selection – no partnership has played more than 15 times together in 4 seasons.

Resolving 2 would at least partly alleviate 1. But there is no evidence that will happen due to other issues of injury and lack of availability.

I am going to illustrate point 1 with reference to defensive performance only. Let’s put to one side passing rates, Packing rates, creativity, goal threat and other value add frippery!

Let’s concentrate on the integrals of the defensive role.

Defensive Action Success Rate (DASR%)

As I have mentioned before this is an aggregated metric defining successful challenges and interceptions versus unsuccessful and fouls conceded. It cuts to the core of defending.

Let’s look at the league table of central defenders since I started to collect data in 2014/15.

Current players are Yellow.

If I also used 2018/19 data, Hendry would be well below 70% but this covers to the end of the last season.

To reiterate – there are small differences (11%) between top and bottom. This is not a problem – I believe there are small margins between the top and mediocre players – a few % points across attributes.

But I posit this list “smells” right with Van Dijk at the top and Ambrose / Hendry at the rear.

A few notes:

Van Dijk is unimpeachably the best Celtic centre half for probably 20 years. Toure was very good then got really bad very quickly. Denayer was 19 and not that far behind Van Dijk. Bitton has great attributes but made too many mistakes and was often poorly positioned. Ambrose: most fans would agree was not good enough. Sviatchenko – he seemed no worse than what we had.

Possession Won / Lost

The second motherhood and apple pie metric is possession won from defensive actions. Simply: a central defender should rarely lose possession from his defensive actions.

Again, league table from 14/15 to end of 17/18.

Remember this is not passing and other creative actions this is purely possession won from defensive actions like tackling, aerial challenges etc.

It looks as if +85% is the bench mark for a decent centre half. Again, Simunovic and Boyata are competent in this regard as it Ajer. Bitton is below that bench mark and Hendry lags way behind.

Again, if I added in 18/19 data this would be less rosy still for young Hendry.

So, where does this leave us?

Ajer

There is clearly a centre back of huge promise here and we have him on a long contract. But he needs stable and experienced partners.

Bitton

Bitton at centre back in domestic Scottish football is a grand idea. His range of passing allied to useful aerial and ground challenge skills make this a winner in a back three at home to most Scottish clubs with minimal pressure against. In Europe is was a disaster with lack of positioning and lack of responsiveness to danger.

This is not a long-term solution and highlights the lack of long-term planning that has gone into fixing this problem position.

Boyata

Celtic knew his contract was up in a year. They knew he was holding off until after the World Cup to discuss this. Why else would you do that unless you were hoping to attract interest from elsewhere? Where was the contingency planning for Boyata having an eye-catching tournament?

I have no inside information, but my reading of the situation is that especially with Compper’s continuing injuries, Rodgers was adamant Boyata was not to be sold. Looks like the board backed the manager. But who spoke to Boyata? Who worked out what he wanted? This seems a complete failure to communicate between the player, the board and the manager.

Either which way, despite him improving year on year, there can be no return so he will leave.

Compper

I have 83 minutes data for Compper. Against Brechin City. He nearly let Brechin in for a goal with his first touch but after that looked a composed left footed defender. Against Brechin City. Other than that. Nada.

I use Transfermarkt for supplementary data. It is free, anyone can use it. The link shows Compper’s injury history.

In my experience Transfermarkt under reports injuries. Since 15/16 when he turned 30, he has missed 227 days to injury with seven different muscle injuries. (We saw Commons and Mulgrew similarly blighted in their early 30s.)

The low number of missed games seems to be because the injuries occurred during summer and winter breaks. But that means conditioning and basic fitness training are missed and getting up to match speed takes longer.

Either way, the player was scouted, identified, agreed upon and signed in time for the 18/19 qualification schedule. It hasn’t worked out and he is now 33.

Bad luck or lack of intelligence gathering?

Hendry

In 18/19 Hendry’s DASR is 60% which is 20% less than Ajer. His possession won % is 61% – remember I suggested an acceptable minimum is 85%.

At 6’ 3” and quite fast with decent ball skills he looks a great idea. And that may still be the case in time. But now his performances are way below the minimum defensive standards needed and for his own sake he needs taking out the firing line to rebuild confidence.

Simunovic

He is not improving (see Has Simunovic Improved? Hint: No).

This season his DASR% is 61% although his possession won % is 94%.

He needs to be playing with a more physically dominant partner. Both he and Hendry are secondary sweeping centre halves – this lack of command and inability to win initial challenges cost dearly in the recent two defeats.

There is a player in there, but he has never appeared in more than 13 consecutive matches. He previously formed a good partnership with Boyata and they won all 13 matches they appeared together as a pair.

The lack of continuity of Simunovic being available will also continue to slow down his and the team’s development.

With him not showing signs of personal performance improvement, is it time to move on?

Conclusion

It is a tale of woe.

Boyata will go; Compper is seemingly interminably unavailable; Simunovic has stagnated and cannot be trusted to play 10 matches in a row; Hendry is struggling with the demands of playing or Celtic and Bitton will never be the answer in big games.

Ajer is a shining light of hope.

The further good news is that if Celtic fix this I believe the squad can reinforce domestic dominance as well as making a fist of Europe as I will show in the summary of the two recent defeats.

But the central defence needs fixing. Confidence drains from the whole team if this part of the structure is not right. It was shown with the opening goal in Athens – hesitancy and paralysis. For the second goal, both central defenders failed basic defending duties.

It likely does not need millions throwing at it either just effective scouting and player identification.

Get it done Celtic.