Chapter 2: Global Trade: What's behind the Slowdown?

Data

Figures Chart Data 2.1 World Real Trade and GDP Growth in Historical Perspective Chart Data 2.2 World Trade in Volumes, Values, and across Countries Chart Data 2.3 Trade Dynamics across Broad Country Groups Chart Data 2.4 Trade Dynamics across Types of Trade and Products Chart Data 2.5 Empirical Model: Actual and Predicted Evolution of Real Import Growth Chart Data 2.6 Empirical Model: Difference Between Actual and Predicted Growth of Real Goods Imports Chart Data 2.7 Empirical Model: Decomposing the Slowdown in Real Goods Import Growth Chart Data 2.8 Structural Model: Actual and Model-Implied Evolution of Nominal Import-to-GDP Ratio Chart Data 2.9 Trade Costs in Historical Perspective: A Top-Down Approach Chart Data 2.10 Trade Policies in Historical Perspective Chart Data 2.11 Logistics and Transportation Costs of Trade in Historical Perspective Chart Data 2.12 Global Value Chains in Historical Perspective Chart Data 2.13 Contribution of Trade Policies and Global Value Chains to the Slowdown in Real Goods Import Growth Chart Data 2.14 Gravity Model: Global Value Chain Participation and Bilateral Sectoral Trade Growth Chart Data Annex

2.1.1 Nominal Import Growth across Categories of Services Chart Data Annex

2.2.1 Real Import Growth Chart Data Annex

2.5.1 Trade Finance Availability Chart Data Annex

2.5.2 Contribution of Trade Policies and Global Value Chains to the Slowdown in Real and Nominal Goods Import Growth Chart Data 2.1.1 The Evolution of Trade across Industries in Major Economies Chart Data 2.2.1 Potential Gains from Tackling Traditional Trade Barriers Chart Data 2.2.2 Trade Policy Frontier Areas Chart Data 2.3.1 Gains from Eliminating Tariffs and Implementing the World Trade Organization Trade Facilitation Agreement

Trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This chapter finds that the overall weakness in economic activity, in particular in investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for up to three-fourths of the slowdown. However, other factors are also weighing on trade. The waning pace of trade liberalization and the recent uptick in protection-ism are holding back trade growth, even though their quantitative impact thus far has been limited. The decline in the growth of global value chains has also played an important part in the observed slowdown. The findings suggest that addressing the general weak-ness in economic activity, especially in investment, will stimulate trade, which in turn could help strengthen productivity and growth. In addition, given the subdued global growth outlook, further trade reforms that lower barriers, coupled with measures to mitigate the cost to those who shoulder the burden of adjustment, would boost the international exchange of goods and services and revive the virtuous cycle of trade and growth.

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