Why the Mountain West will have a good Selection Sunday

Eric Prisbell, USA TODAY Sports | USATODAY

Any college basketball fan worth his mock bracket understands that the Big Ten is the nation's strongest conference this season, likely by a considerable margin. Minnesota coach Tubby Smith called it the strongest league he has ever been a part of.

But the Ratings Percentage Index says otherwise. The combination of shrewd scheduling and formidable teams has lifted the Mountain West Conference to first place nationally among all conferences in the RPI. The league likely will send five schools – New Mexico, Colorado State, UNLV, Boise State and San Diego State – to the NCAA tournament the same season a power conference like the SEC will be fortunate to earn three bids.

"You can say 'BCS league, BCS school' all you want, but the numbers don't lie," New Mexico coach Steve Alford told USA TODAY Sports by phone. "In other years, whoever has been the No. 1 (RPI) league in the country, they've been getting six to seven teams in the NCAA tournament. You can't all of a sudden change that because it's a non-BCS league that is the best league in the country. You can't all of a sudden say, 'Well, it's not the ACC, Big Ten or Big East.' That's unfair."

How did the MWC reach these rarefied RPI heights? Consider the class of the league, the Lobos, who despite a one-point loss Saturday at Air Force, earn high honors for arguably the most masterful scheduling job in the country.

While examining their tournament résumé, delve deeper than the No. 2 ranking in RPI and No. 5 strength of schedule ranking to appreciate its strength. When Air Force's Todd Fletcher sank a three-pointer with 3.5 seconds left Saturday to give Air Force an 89-88 victory, the Lobos (26-5) suffered only their second loss of the season to a team outside the RPI's top 50.

The Lobos still have an outstanding 17-5 record against top 100 teams. Equally impressive, they have played just one team all season (Portland) with an RPI worse than 200. Even Duke, which is well-positioned to contend for the tournament's overall top seed, has played two.

In recent years, schools have attempted to turn earning at-large bids and high seeds into a science. In 2006, some prominent coaches criticized the Missouri Valley Conference for what they viewed as essentially gaming the system, scheduling their way to high rankings in the RPI and, thus, four tournament berths. Then-Maryland coach Gary Williams deemed the metric-crazed approach "Revenge of the Nerds."

Several Division 1 programs still inexplicably schedule lightweight opponents, usually leading to disappointing selection Sundays because the selection committee likes to weed those teams out. But far more teams have now made smart RPI-conscious scheduling a priority. In recent years, RPI analyst Jerry Palm said, he has helped about a dozen schools with scheduling concepts intended to improve team RPIs.

When New Mexico approached its schedule for this season, it knew it needed a dynamite slate of formidable opponents RPI-wise to put the team in position to earn an at-large berth if it finished fourth or fifth in the MWC standings. And it needed to avoid opponents that could finish with RPIs worse than 200.

It sought opponents that had veteran teams expected to challenge for their respective league titles. Games against Davidson, South Dakota State, Saint Louis, Cincinnati and Valparaiso were smart and wound up giving the Lobos three victories against top-100 teams. (They lost to South Dakota State and Saint Louis.)

But shrewd scheduling also involves good fortune. Alford said he felt last season's schedule was tougher on paper because it included five schools from BCS leagues: Arizona State, Washington State, Boston College, Southern California and Oklahoma State. New Mexico beat all five. But each finished with rankings in the RPI outside the top 100, thus hurting New Mexico's overall profile more than helping it.

Granted, the RPI is only one tool the selection committee uses to help determine berths and seeds. But a top-five ranking in the RPI almost always translates into a No. 1 or 2 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Patrick Stevens, who projects the tournament field for USA TODAY Sports, examined the tournament seeding of all teams in the past 19 seasons that finished among the top five in RPI. Only eight of those 95 teams — including a Georgia team that was ineligible for the 2003 tournament — did not receive a 1 or 2 seed. And only one team — Kansas in 2005 — had ranked first or second in the RPI and did not receive a 1 or 2 seed.

Though it still faces competitive games in the upcoming MWC tournament in Las Vegas, New Mexico is likely to open NCAA tournament play in Austin as a No. 3 seed, with an outside chance of moving up or down a seed. And Alford hopes the entire league is rewarded for the MWC's strong position in the RPI.

"The league has kind of been a secret," Alford said. "But I think that secret is out."