September 13, 2017 - Dem Has Huge Lead In New Jersey Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Guadagno's Ties To Christie Are Big Negative

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In the race for New Jersey governor, Democrat Phil Murphy leads Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno 58 - 33 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.





Murphy leads Guadagno among every party, gender, education, age and racial group listed, except Republicans, who back Guadagno 78 - 16 percent; white voters with no college degree, who are divided with 46 percent for Guadagno and 42 percent for Murphy, and white men who are split with 46 percent for Murphy and 45 percent for Guadagno, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.





This survey of likely voters can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.





New Jersey likely voters have a 37 - 18 percent favorable opinion of Murphy, with 43 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion. Guadagno gets a negative 25 - 33 percent favorability, with 40 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.





Taxes is the most important issue in deciding their vote for governor, 30 percent of likely voters say, as 15 percent list the economy; 13 percent cite education and 11 percent say health care.





"As far as candidate qualifications go, New Jersey is holding a stealth election. Democrat Phil Murphy swamps Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, but about 40 percent of voters don't know much about either of them," said Maurice Carroll, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.





"Each of them dominates among their own party's voters, but Murphy gets more Democrats and there are more of them to get in very blue New Jersey.





"Predictably, taxes are the number one voter concern.





"Working for Goldman Sachs hurts Murphy a little. Serving as lieutenant governor to Gov. Chris Christie hurts Guadagno a lot more.





"Are New Jersey voters buying a pig in a poke? It will be an interesting governorship."





For 47 percent of New Jersey likely voters, Guadagno's role as lieutenant governor to Gov. Christopher Christie has a negative impact on their opinion of her. Another 11 percent say it has a positive impact and 40 percent say it doesn't matter.





Murphy's 23 years at Goldman Sachs creates a negative impact on the opinion of 30 percent of likely voters. For 6 percent, it has a positive impact and 60 percent say it doesn't matter.





From September 7 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 875 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.





The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys nationwide, and in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.





Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll





Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.







1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Phil Murphy the Democrat and Kim Guadagno the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Phil Murphy the Democrat or Kim Guadagno the Republican?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Murphy 58% 16% 95% 50% 51% 64% 57% 42% Guadagno 33 78 4 36 39 28 36 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - 5 4 - 2 1 DK/NA 7 6 1 10 6 9 5 10 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht Murphy 71% 62% 58% 51% 46% 57% 51% 74% Guadagno 25 32 33 38 45 34 40 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 2 1 1 3 - 2 2 DK/NA - 4 8 10 5 9 7 6

2. Is your opinion of Phil Murphy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 37% 16% 59% 30% 36% 37% 39% 27% Unfavorable 18 34 4 23 25 13 22 26 Hvn't hrd enough 43 48 36 44 38 47 38 47 REFUSED 2 2 1 4 1 3 1 - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht Favorable 35% 43% 38% 32% 32% 37% 35% 41% Unfavorable 14 15 22 17 30 17 23 7 Hvn't hrd enough 51 37 39 49 37 46 41 46 REFUSED - 5 1 3 - 1 1 6

3. Is your opinion of Kim Guadagno favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 25% 51% 11% 25% 31% 21% 32% 33% Unfavorable 33 10 52 30 33 32 37 29 Hvn't hrd enough 40 37 36 41 33 45 30 36 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 3 2 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht Favorable 21% 21% 28% 28% 38% 27% 32% 10% Unfavorable 27 39 35 28 34 34 34 31 Hvn't hrd enough 52 38 35 40 26 39 32 56 REFUSED - 2 2 4 2 1 2 3

12. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: taxes, the economy, education, the budget, health care, the environment, race relations, or ethics in government?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Taxes 30% 38% 20% 34% 30% 29% 25% 38% Economy 15 23 14 12 20 11 19 16 Education 13 8 20 12 9 17 16 4 Budget 7 11 4 8 7 6 6 12 Health care 11 7 18 8 7 15 9 8 Environment 5 - 4 7 6 4 6 6 Race relations 3 1 2 3 3 2 1 1 Ethics in government 10 9 11 10 10 10 13 9 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 3 4 2 2 2 DK/NA 3 2 5 3 3 4 1 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht Taxes 12% 27% 29% 37% 30% 31% 31% 25% Economy 12 16 17 12 21 14 18 9 Education 21 21 11 7 7 15 11 19 Budget 8 9 6 7 10 7 9 3 Health care 11 7 15 10 6 12 9 18 Environment 10 4 4 8 7 5 6 4 Race relations 1 2 4 2 1 - 1 7 Ethics in government 20 12 8 9 13 10 12 8 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) - 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 4 - 3 7 1 3 2 5

13. As you may know, Phil Murphy worked for Goldman Sachs for 23 years. Does this have a positive impact on your opinion of Phil Murphy, a negative impact, or does it have no impact on your opinion of Phil Murphy?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Positive 6% 7% 5% 7% 7% 5% 8% 2% Negative 30 22 26 37 33 28 35 30 No impact 60 69 65 52 56 64 55 63 DK/NA 4 2 3 4 5 3 2 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht Positive 3% 7% 7% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% Negative 34 34 29 25 36 30 33 24 No impact 62 56 62 62 56 61 58 64 DK/NA - 4 1 8 3 3 3 5

14. As you may know, Kim Guadagno has been Chris Christie's lieutenant governor for about eight years. Does this have a positive impact on your opinion of Kim Guadagno, a negative impact, or does it have no impact on your opinion of Kim Guadagno?