You hear the term a lot this time of the NBA year: second-year breakout candidates. The reasoning is simple. With one season under their belts, the NBA's sophomores come back looking like different players. They have a better understanding of the NBA game. Their bodies have been honed by their time with pro training staffs. They are more confident. So when you're looking for breakout candidates, look for the second-year guys.

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But while this all makes intuitive sense, is this really a thing? Yes! It's really a thing. Here's the data:

- I filtered my database to find players who enjoyed at least a 20 percent jump in individual winning percentage from one year to the next, while playing at least 500 minutes in both seasons. Pulling this data going back to the 1981-82 season, I found 601 such seasons.

• Of this set of "breakout" players, 139 were second-year players, or 23 percent. This is 6 percent more than any other level of experience.

• The curve of these breakout seasons goes just like you'd expect. After the 23 percent for second-year players, 17 percent of breakouts came in Year 3, 13 percent in Year 4, 10 percent in Year 5, 8 percent in Year 6 and 7 percent in Year 7. Then it gets random.