Is the high cost of California living scaring off potential new residents?

One benchmark of California’s attractiveness to workers is my annual compilation of moving van statistics – inbound vs. outbound moves as tracked by three major carriers: United, Atlas and Allied. Moving vans are typically used by folks getting better-than-average jobs, so they’re a decent measure of middle-income or higher employment trends.

My trusty spreadsheet – looking at van line data back to 2005 – found 27,794 moves to California from elsewhere by the three major carriers last year. That’s down 6.6 percent from 2014 and the slowest inbound traffic since the recessionary year of 2009. Uh-oh!

But there’s no mass exodus, at least by van. Departing moves through the three van lines totaled 26,364 last year, down 1 percent from 2014. Outbound van traffic has run in a narrow range around 26,000 since 2006.

All told, 54,158 moving trips to or from California were made through the three carriers last year, a three-year low. And inbound moves equaled 51.3 percent of all California moves, the sixth consecutive year that more vans came to the state than departed.

But there’s a warning sign too: 2015’s share of inbound moves was the smallest since that streak began in 2010. (Note: Any net inflow is good. In 2005, only 44.3 percent of moves were inbound.)

So what I’m seeing brewing is a mild-but-noteworthy reluctance to move to California from elsewhere in the U.S.

It’s not just found in van traffic reports. State demographers – tracking all moves – estimated California suffered a net loss of 61,121 people to other states in the 12 months ended July 2015, the largest outflow in four years. California’s population continues to grow due to births and inflows from foreign countries.

Van line data paint a rosier picture – more inbound than out – because moving companies are primarily used by people switching jobs. These services aren’t cheap. Folks who find California unaffordable, due to high costs and/or limited job opportunities, probably depart with lower-cost moving assistance.

Don’t blame the state’s employers, though, who have given people plenty of reasons to come to California.

Last year, California bosses added workers at a 3 percent annual clip – the fastest pace in 14 years and the fourth straight year state job growth has eclipsed employment expansion nationally. Since 2011, state employment has grown by 1.6 million jobs – or 1 in 6 of all jobs created in the nation.

But the state’s ever-shrinking supply of “affordable” housing is a growing turnoff.

The strong job market has helped revive the state’s housing markets. But it’s long been no surprise that California’s major job hubs have pricey homes.

Six California regions – Orange County, Los Angeles, San Diego, Inland Empire, San Jose and San Francisco – ranked among the National Association of Realtors’ 12 least affordable places to buy a single-family house in 2015.

However, here’s what’s really worrisome: Just ponder California through a house shopper’s budget, according to Realtors’ affordability math.

Back in 2012, that Realtor math showed median incomes in those six big California regions were an average 9 percent higher than what was considered sufficient to comfortably own a local median-priced home.

Last year, though, median incomes in those six California markets averaged just 80 percent of the pay needed to comfortably afford to buy.

That’s what a 47 percent jump in state home price since 2012 does to the wallets of California house hunters.

Yes, the price bump is great for existing homeowners. But soaring housing values also create a price barrier that may be keeping folks from calling a van line to move here.

Contact the writer: jlansner@ocregister.com