Illustration: Matt Davidson. But he has defied his critics by becoming a stabilising and unifying force in a party that desperately needed it. Which is just one of the reasons why if he loses on July 2 — which is still the most likely scenario despite his strong campaign performance and the 50/50 polls — Labor should seriously consider giving him a second shot. Under Labor's new-ish leadership rules the leader's spot is automatically thrown open after an election loss. So no matter how well Shorten does — even if he gets within a few seats of the 21 he needs to form government — his job will be up for grabs.

About to make history: Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen There will almost certainly be at least one challenger: Anthony Albanese, his Left faction rival after the last election. Albo, as he's universally known, is beloved by Labor's rank-and-file. Indeed, he was their choice in 2013 but the party room sided with Shorten. He still wants the job and will fight hard to get it. Shorten's deputy Tanya Plibersek may also throw her hat into the ring, and shadow treasurer Chris Bowen too. Victorian Richard Marles is also in the mix but as a deputy rather than a leader. Will Shorten even want another go?

Based on how much he appears to be enjoying himself on the campaign trail, one assumes he'll be up for it. And if he does pick up something in the order of 10 to 15 seats on July 2 he'll have a strong claim to continue. Some say it was not Shorten that united the party: rather, he simply inherited a team exhausted by the battles of the past, its appetite for self-destruction sated by a decade of infighting and bloodshed. But he surely deserves at least some of the credit for steering Labor from bitter rabble to disciplined, organised team. Shorten is not a devastatingly effective attack dog like Tony Abbott. But he deserves credit too for taking a higher and harder road: rather than aping Abbott's relentless negativity he has led the policy debate. He's risked real political skin by proposing hefty tax increases to pay for health and education.

The Australian people don't love him but they do respect him for refusing to be a small target, and for treating them with the respect Malcolm Turnbull promised but has so far failed to deliver. He's had some luck — the Bronwyn Bishop expenses saga erupted right when public attention was starting to home in on union corruption, for example — but he's also proven adept at capitalising on opportunities. Like when Abbott gave him the biggest political gift of all time with the 2014 budget. He's weathered plenty of attacks, on everything from his union past to his godawful dancing, and emerged relatively unscathed. When Malcolm Turnbull took over, a lesser leader might have crumbled; Shorten not only held it together, he took his party to within striking distance in just a few months. He zeroed in on Turnbull's weaknesses and exploited them adroitly. Turnbull's popularity is fading mostly because he hasn't lived up to expectations; but Shorten has to get some small share of the credit for this too.

Despite all this, many in the party, particularly on the Left, will be keen to go in a new direction if Shorten loses. Labor's always looking for its next messiah, after all. But there are great perils in experimentation: whoever Labor chooses in the months after this election is likely to lead them to the next because under the new rules it's much more difficult to chop and change mid-term. Albanese, Plibersek, Bowen — any one of them might also prove to be good leader. Or they might be disastrous and Labor will be locked in behind them. At the very least, a new leader will have their work cut out for them: building their profile, establishing their authority in the party and community, formulating new policies and strategies against a formidable foe in Turnbull.

After two-and-a-half years in the job Shorten is now a known quantity. He's an unspectacular leader, uninspiring. But so was John Howard, our last truly successful prime minister. History suggests Australians don't want fireworks; they want credible, dependable leadership. That's what Shorten has given Labor: who's to say he cannot give it to the country?