Post the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, liberal capitalist democracy seemed to be the most feasible way of structuring a modern society, if not the only one.

However like communism, capitalism also has a fatal flaw.

If communism’s lack of incentives leads to apathetic workers and falling productivity, unchecked capitalism leads to the increasing concentration of wealth in few hands and growing inequality.

The logical solution of redistributive taxes can be suppressed by the wealthiest 1%, who can buy media houses and shape public opinion of dissatisfied masses into focusing on other issues.

Like blaming foreigners, immigrants, and minorities.

All around the world this is leading to the replacement of a cosmopolitan global liberal zeitgeist with a nationalistic fervour that celebrates past glories and focuses on chest thumping cultural pride.

America under Trump is dreaming of being great again. China is remembering its thousands of years of ascendancy before European Imperialism. Former KGB intelligence officer Putin is reminding Russians of their global position during the cold war. Erdogan recalls the Ottoman Empire. While Iran does the same for the Safavids. And India yearns for the golden age of the Guptas, before the Muslim armies invaded.

A prickly nationalism is emerging.

America is escalating a trade war with China and perhaps a military one with Iran. It is also leaving Europe to deal with the threat of Russia and Japan to deal with the threat of China. India and Pakistan are looking at each other warily as border incidents rise and cross border strikes have taken centre stage. England is trying to distance itself from Europe as part of an effort to reassert its national identity and independence.

This has all happened before.

These are the precursors of the sort of vibe that existed just prior to World War I.

Prickly nationalism and the resulting insecurities led to alliances being formed. France and Russia were threatened by a strengthening Germany so formed a pact with each other. Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire felt threatened by Russia and so were driven closer to Germany. Then the seemingly peripheral assassination of an archduke of the Austro-Hungarian Empire by Slavic separatists pulled the entire world in a catastrophic series of two world wars.

One hundred years later, the dominant superpower America is threatened by a strengthening China in the same way that England was threatened by Germany then. Russia feels threatened by NATO and has pushed back hard in Crimea and Ukraine. America and Europe are likely to see themselves as allies against the authoritarian regimes of China and Russia. Japan would join America and Europe against China, with whom it has a longstanding animosity.

Iran is being pushed away by the US into their arms. And if a war with Iran breaks out, the Israelis and Sunni American allies in the region like Saudi will amazingly find themselves on the same side. But this may be the point at which the Arab masses revolt against their leaders for seemingly betraying Islam by siding with America and Israel. And the Sunni Shia antipathy could blow up to a completely unprecedented level in the region.

India would join the US, and Pakistan may find China a more natural ally than a suspicious America.

It seems impossible that nuclear powers like America, Russia, China, England, France, India, Pakistan, Israel, and perhaps Iran would get into a World War (Japan probably has the technological know how to build nuclear weapons if it decided to).

The stakes seem ridiculously high.

But nobody seems to be backing down.

Well, except Pakistan maybe.

The problem with nationalism in one country is that it creates nationalism in natural rival countries and there is a positive feedback loop that keeps reinforcing the vicious cycle.

Maybe this is premature and alarmist.

I hope so.

But who’s going to bring sense to this conversation?

Trump? Putin? Modi? Netanyahu? MbS? Rouhani? Xi Jinping? Shinzo Abe?

I don’t know.

If things keep escalating, then ten years from now, who knows where we might end up.

It could be a spark in Hong Kong or the islands that Japan and China are fighting over, or an American invasion of Iran, or further westward aggression by Russia.

It seems unthinkable.

But not everyone is thinking.