The Ontario Progressive Conservatives’ proposal to build subways and move light rapid transit completely underground would provide a fraction of the transit capacity already planned as part of Metrolinx’s Big Move while costing taxpayers billions more, according to an analysis by the Pembina Institute.

The report says it would cost $12.5 billion to build the 22 kilometres of new subway that were part of a Conservative proposal released in December.

Those lines include the downtown relief line, an extension of the Yonge subway line north and the Bloor-Danforth line west into Mississauga.

The Conservative proposal also includes moving the Sheppard East and Eglinton LRT lines, which have provincial funding and are already under construction, completely underground. The move would cost riders the loss of four kilometres of transit line and the taxpayers an additional $5.2 billion.

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The report says Conservatives would “cancel all other surface rapid transit lines (both LRT and BRT) that were planned as part of the Big Move for quick deployment to suburban communities.”

In comparison, the next wave of the Liberal-backed Metrolinx plan is estimated at $15.1 billion and includes 142 kilometres of new light rail, bus rapid transit and subway lines. (The Metrolinx plan also includes GO Transit improvements, for a total cost of $34 billion.)

If funded, Metrolinx would build the downtown relief line, extend the Yonge subway line north, build light rail transit in Hamilton, Mississauga and Brampton, and build a bus rapid transit route along Dundas St. through Halton, Peel and Toronto.

The Liberals have said they are committed to expanding regional transit and finding new revenue tools, but the report says “they have not provided further details.”

A 2013 Liberal budget promise to raise money by charging solo drivers a toll to use high-occupancy vehicle lanes has not yet materialized, the report points out. A government spokesperson said the Ministry of Transportation continues to “examine U.S. HOT lane experience and is undertaking Ontario-specific traffic modelling to evaluate options to introduce HOV/HOT lanes in the GTHA.”

The Liberals have said transit expansion could come through the release of government-backed low-interest “green bonds,” but the report notes the “borrowed money” would have to be paid back.

The province is currently building the first wave of the Big Move, which received $16 billion in provincial funding.

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The Conservatives say they’d raise money for transit by reallocating existing funding in the capital project budget. Leader Tim Hudak has also pledged to create a new $2-billion annual “Ontario Transportation Trust” by selling surplus provincial land and offices, and decreasing the number of government employees.

But the Pembina report says the investments needed in transit are so massive — an estimated $50 billion over 25 years — that they can’t be funded through existing budgets or fueled by government cutbacks, and will need a dedicated revenue stream.

“We really need to find new sources of revenue,” said Cherise Burda, Pembina’s Ontario director, who says the province is already 30 years behind in transit infrastructure. “It’s going to be critical that our party leaders make commitments to investments in transit.”

People also need to know the money raised is going directly to transit, says Burda, because “people are skeptical that it will get wasted or go into general revenue.” That’s backed up by the findings of several opinion polls, as well as the recent provincial Transit Investment Strategy Advisory Panel led by Anne Golden.

The report says NDP Leader Andrea Horwath is “100 per cent in favour of the Big Move,” but the party has rejected any new revenue tools such as additional taxes, tolls or fees to fund the plan. Instead, the NDP would maintain the “fairness tax,” which was introduced in the 2012 budget and applies to incomes of more than $500,000.

The report says “it’s unclear what proportion of these funds would be dedicated to transit and transportation improvements,” because the NDP have discussed using the same revenue source for other initiatives such as day care and health care.

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