D.C. Police Chief Cathy Lanier speaks at a press conference on the Navy Yard shootings as Mayor Vincent Gray looks on, Sept. 16, 2013, in Washington. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)

It’s becoming a quadrennial tradition in District politics to ask this question: Will D.C. Police Chief Cathy L. Lanier stay? And this one: Does the next mayor want her?

Lanier could soon be working under her third mayoral administration, an unusually long tenure for a big-city chief. Most serve about five years. But she is an unusual chief whose popularity, political savvy and stewardship of a dramatic drop in crime have insulated her against political tumult.

Though just one of the three major D.C. mayoral candidates has pledged to retain Lanier as the head of the city’s 3,900-officer force, those who follow District politics say it would be dangerous for whoever wins on Nov. 4 to replace her and risk even a brief spike in crime that would immediately call the move into question.

Still, as much as people ask whether the next mayor wants to keep the chief, it’s also a question of whether the chief wants to stay. Lanier isn’t talking before there actually is a new mayor.

One candidate, D.C. Council member Muriel E. Bowser (D Ward-4), has said not only that she wants to keep Lanier in her administration but that the chief wants to stay.

Bowser said she met with Lanier six days after Bowser defeated Mayor Vincent C. Gray in the Democratic primary in April. “The chief has indicated she wants to continue to be chief of the District of Columbia,” the councilwoman said.

Bowser’s two main opponents, council member David A. Catania (I-At Large) and former four-term council member Carol Schwartz — both former Republicans who are running as independents — have said it would be unfair to promise jobs before the election.

Catania has been endorsed by the District’s police union, which is critical of Lanier. Schwartz has suggested that the endorsement came because Catania cut a deal with the union to remove Lanier, but both the union head and the candidate deny that.

Outside the union hall, Lanier continues to be one of the most popular leaders in the city. In a recent NBC4/Washington Post/Marist poll, she had a 75 percent approval rating. She did not respond to requests for comment for this article.

Experts who follow police executives say there are few other spots that would afford Lanier the stature and soap box of running the police department in the nation’s capital, even though the chief sometimes complains that the tiniest of controversies in Washington can quickly make national news.

“She is the smiling police chief,” said Chuck Thies, former campaign manager for Gray, who extended Lanier’s contract in 2012. “I think if she didn’t like the job, Cathy would have no problem finding work elsewhere. She is largely heralded. And while there is no acceptable standard for crime, crime has moved in the right direction during her tenure.”

Thies said that Lanier worked with great freedom under Gray and his predecessor, Adrian M. Fenty (D), who made Lanier chief in 2007. She would most likely seek a similar arrangement with her new boss, but it would be worth it, Thies said.

D.C. mayoral candidates Muriel Bowser, David Catania and Carol Schwartz. (The Washington Post)

“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” he said. “If you’re the new mayor and you get rid of Cathy Lanier and crime goes through the roof, or even kicks up a little bit, people are going to look at you and say, ‘What on earth have you done?’ ”

“It’s difficult to work under different mayors, and that’s an accomplishment in and of itself. It says something about her resiliency ,” said Chuck Wexler, the executive director of the Police Executive Research Forum, a law enforcement think tank. “Crime is down, and the citizens seem satisfied.”

Lanier is under contract until Jan. 1, 2017, halfway through the next mayor’s first term. She earns $253,817 annually. Though her salary is frozen, she is due a 5 percent raise next September, her 25th anniversary on the force. If fired, she gets four months’ severance pay.

D.C. Council Chairman Phil Mendelson (D) said he thinks that Lanier wants to keep the job and that “it would be a mistake” to replace her.

“Cathy Lanier grew up in [the Metropolitan Police Department], and she likes being a cop,” Mendelson said. “I think that’s part of her success. . . . I think continuity is important. I think as leaders we need to appreciate that we benefit from not starting over with a new chief of police every four years.”

But challenges lie ahead. The police union is upset with an arbiter’s ruling that sided with the District on pay raises, preventing long-awaited salary boosts from being retroactive, and the labor organization may fight the ruling in court. Lanier and the union have warned that a spate of pending retirements could spawn a mass departure of officers, putting the pace of hiring behind attrition and making the police force smaller even as the city’s population is booming.

Also, if marijuana is legalized in a November ballot initiative — which a recent NBC4/Washington Post/Marist poll indicated is likely — the new mayor will confront a new legal landscape. And some residents and visitors will be allowed to carry guns under a law passed this month after a federal judge struck down the city’s existing ban on concealed firearms.

Crime, although still at historic lows, is up in some categories this year, notably thefts, which can be an indicator of tough economic times. Sex assaults also are on the rise. Homicides were up significantly in the first six months but have leveled off and are now close to the figure at the same point last year. Although it appears the District will not be able to match the 50-year low in killings — 88 — recorded in 2012, this year’s pace is far from the 181 homicides recorded the year Lanier took over as chief — and even further from the late 1980s, when a more than 450 homicides per year gave Washington a reputation as the nation’s murder capital.

Bowser committed to keeping the chief during the primary and punctuated her support by meeting with Lanier less than a week after defeating Gray.

“I think it was extremely important for a chief of Cathy’s caliber, that we send a strong message to her, and to other jurisdictions that might want to steal her from us, that if I’m elected mayor, I want her to be the police chief,” Bowser said. “I will tell you that I can’t think of a single audience in the District of Columbia that I’ve spoken to that disagrees.”

Perhaps more importantly, Bowser said Lanier told her she wants to keep the job. In that conversation, Bowser said, “I wanted to talk to her about what she saw the challenges were for the department,what she needed from a resource base, what she needed in terms of political support and where the department was headed.”

Bowser said that, as mayor, she wants to drive crime down even further. She said she would “redouble our efforts to retain officers” without binge hiring that has in the past led to officers with criminal records and other problems.

“We still have too many violent crimes,” Bowser said. “We still have too many homicides, especially in some parts of our city. Robberies are too high.”

The candidate said she was especially impressed that Lanier understands the effect that new residents and development have had on the District. “She got in front of it and saw the synergy between economic developments and how she did her job,” Bowser said.

Catania, who received the police union’s endorsement, said he has the “utmost respect and confidence in Chief Lanier,” but added, “It’s inappropriate for candidates to be making personnel choices and overtures.”

Catania said that he was concerned about the police retirements and warned that “if we don’t have a strategy for replacing these officers, we’re going to be in a difficult position meeting the demands of deployment and keeping our citizens safe. . . . We need a recruiting strategy that can keep pace with attrition.”

He said he would try to lure officers from other departments to the District. At the moment, the pipeline typically goes the other way; many young officers leave Washington after a few years to take jobs in the suburbs, which sometimes offer better pay, quicker advancement and better schedules. Catania said he wants to find a way to transfer pension funds from outside departments to the District.

The councilman endeared himself to the police union by voting against a pay raise for officers without retroactive pay for the years they worked without a contract. An arbiter, agreeing with the city, ruled that officers in the District should receive pay similar to that of suburban jurisdictions. The union argued that District officers should be paid at rates comparable to other big cities.

Catania said the ruling, which the union is challenging, “misjudges and devalues the type of work our officers do.”

Schwartz, who won police union endorsements in previous mayoral and council races, also declined to say whether she would keep Lanier. “I have not committed one way or another, nor am I going to,” she said. Schwartz did commit to keeping Kaya Henderson, the schools chancellor, but she said that was necessary because Henderson needs at least one more year to complete reforms.

Of Lanier, Schwartz said: “I certainly like her personally.”

Schwartz said she’s concerned about upticks in some crimes. She said she would like a force with 4,000 officers, the department’s authorized strength, and she wants to recruit more police who live in the District. She also wants the department to renew its involvement in the Boys & Girls Clubs of Greater Washington, where Schwartz once served on the board and as president.

“I thought that was very important to have people from a very early age getting to know police officers in nonconfrontational ways,” Schwartz said.

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