Noah Syndergaard gave up a homer in the first inning that put the Mets in an early hole and another in the sixth inning, which sealed a loss Saturday. In his last seven games, Syndergaard has a 5.09 ERA and has allowed 9 HR in 40.2 IP. Despite this recent struggle with the long ball, the big rookie should still be in the playoff rotation.

It seems a given that Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey will be in the playoff rotation. After that there are four guys vying for two spots. Let’s run some numbers on those four guys. First for some traditional numbers:

From these it seems pretty easy to eliminate Niese. He has the worst ERA, WHIP and K/BB ratio of the quartet and it’s not like he started off poorly and is pitching lights out down the stretch. After that, it’s not so cut-and-dry. Colon may have fattened up against the dregs of the NL East and been in Niese territory against the rest of MLB but can you see Terry Collins bumping him for two rookies? Let’s dig a little deeper and see if there’s a case to be made for Colon and if not, which of the rookies will get the short end of the stick.

BABIP K/9 BB/9 LOB% HR/FB FIP xFIP Colon .309 6.47 1.14 72.4 10.8 3.86 3.95 Matz .247 7.80 3.00 98.6 13.3 4.25 3.98 Syndergaard .287 9.64 2.00 73.9 13.8 3.34 3.05

It’s easy to see how Matz has that sparkling ERA. He’s having great fortune in both batters getting on base via a hit and with runners getting on base but not scoring. His peripherals paint a picture of a pitcher no better than Colon.

Meanwhile, Syndergaard has the best peripherals of all, even with the rough patch he’s experienced lately. His ERA and his FIP are nearly identical and his xFIP is even better, thanks to the now higher-than-normal HR rate. He’s the pitcher most likely to be able to give you a strikeout when you need one and he’s not likely to get burnt with allowing a walk.

But before we declare the final two starters as Colon and Syndergaard, we should also keep in mind that Collins has said that Matz in the bullpen is not an option. The manager has seemingly put the kibosh on Harvey and Matz pitching out of the pen, not wanting to subject either of his pitchers coming off surgery to the up-and-down nature of relieving.

Two things come to mind here. One is that it’s far better to judge Collins by what he does, not what he says. Whether it’s because he changes his mind or gets overruled by his GM, we shouldn’t consider this “no Matz in the pen” as written in stone.

And the other is that we have no idea how Harvey will perform in the playoffs. Will the gloves be off in the postseason and Harvey be allowed to function like a normal pitcher? Or will the Mets employ the piggyback approach in the playoffs? Collins may not want Matz getting up and down but how would he feel about anointing him as the guy to replace Harvey after he reaches his sub-90 pitch count?

This way, Matz knows which day he’s going to pitch and it should be fairly easy to see how Harvey’s doing and to get him ready in time to come into the game when Harvey reaches the club-imposed limit. We can argue that same thing for using Colon as a reliever, too.

Part of me wants to see Syndergaard as a reliever, just wondering how high he could reach on the radar gun if he didn’t have to pace himself to throw 100+ pitches. But hopefully the back end of the pen has been stabilized with the acquisitions of Tyler Clippard and Addison Reed to go along with the season-long dominance of Jeurys Familia.

If the concern is innings one through six, then Syndergaard should be starting. With Colon likely to be gifted a starting spot, Syndergaard has performed well enough over a long enough sample of MLB hitters to deserve the rotation bid over both Matz and Niese. But if he wants to solidify his spot the final two weeks of the season by eliminating the gopher ball, that would be okay, too.

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