Rainy weather likely to continue all year as El Niño builds strength

1.5 month outlook



Blue means cooler-than average temperatures, red means warmer-than average temperatures.



Credit: NOAA 1.5 month outlook



Blue means cooler-than average temperatures, red means warmer-than average temperatures.



Credit: NOAA Photo: National Oceanographic And Atmospheric Administration Photo: National Oceanographic And Atmospheric Administration Image 1 of / 14 Caption Close Rainy weather likely to continue all year as El Niño builds strength 1 / 14 Back to Gallery

A wet year for Texas will probably get even wetter, and above-average rains will likely linger through next spring. That's according to a new forecast, released Thursday by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, which suggests the current El Niño event could become the strongest on record.

El Niño (Spanish for The Child in reference to baby Jesus) is a global phenomenon rooted in the Pacific Ocean that changes weather around the world. It happens sporadically, once every 4 to 10 years, and generally brings relatively cool, wet weather to Texas. It's been mounting in the Pacific for months, and the numbers show it's not going away.

RELATED: Rainy weather likely to continue through summer

"There's a greater-than-90 percent chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter and 80 percent chance it will last into early spring," said Emily Becker, a research scientist at the NOAA climate prediction center that produced the forecast. "That tilts the odds towards more rainfall in the fall and winter in Texas."

The phenomenon growing in the Pacific has already left its mark on Texas, in the form of severe floods that swamped the state in spring.

State climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said, "I think that El Niño has been the primary factor leading to above-normal rainfall so far, especially in April and May, through El Niño's influence on the tropical jet stream."

Those rainy months made May 2015 the wettest month in U.S. and Texas history. The year to date is also the wettest on record for the Lone Star State, which got as much rain through June as it normally clocks by late October, Nielsen-Gammon said.

RELATED: May 2015 has smashed the previous record for wettest month in Texas history

The reasons El Niño brings more rain to Texas are complex. The pattern begins with rising surface temperatures in the Pacific, which eventually warm the air, cause it to rise above the ocean surface and throw a wrench into wind currents around the world. Typically, Texas taps into more tropical moisture, and the resulting wetter soils keep the air cool.

Ocean temperatures warmed throughout summer 2014, but El Niño never kicked in and the pattern fizzled. This year the lingering warm water helped to make this event among the strongest in history, nearly rivaling the record event of 1997-1998.

It's also been strengthened by some exceptional Pacific winds blowing opposite their typical direction. On three occasions since March, Pacific air about-faced and blew west, moving more warm water to the east where it piles up.

"The strength of these wind bursts was unusual," Becker said. "You usually see one here or there, but it was exceptional to see three strong ones in a fairly short period of time."

She said El Niño effects weaken during the summer, when weather is less influenced by global patterns, but should pick up in autumn and winter with more heavy rains for Texas.

Nielsen-Gammon said the strongest impacts should come in winter, which will likely be cooler and wetter than normal in Texas this year. In fall, he said, Texas should expect an enhanced chance of flooding from thunderstorms.

RELATED: Alaska was hotter than Texas in May

The phenomenon is also expected to create a quiet Atlantic hurricane season, and to raise temperatures along the West Coast and Alaska, which has already reeled from a dramatic heat wave.

Click through our slideshow to see the NOAA's full set of long-term predictions for Texas and the United States.