Trump Takes 9-Point Lead Over Clinton in Granite State

An InsideSources/NH Journal poll finds that incumbent U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte is gaining momentum in her race against New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan. Ayotte leads Hassan 49 percent to 41.4 percent, with 9.6 percent undecided.

Meanwhile, days after officially receiving the Republican nomination in Cleveland, the poll shows businessman Donald Trump leads former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 47.9 percent to 38.5 percent in New Hampshire, with 13.6 percent undecided.

InsideSources tested a negative message for each of the major party’s candidates for Senate. When voters were asked if Ayotte’s intention to vote for Donald Trump without endorsing him influenced their support for Ayotte, 46.7 percent reported that this information had no effect on their potential support for Ayotte, while 34.2 percent claimed it made them less likely to support Ayotte, and 17.5 said this information made them more likely to support Ayotte. Women were more likely to be positively swayed by Ayotte’s position on the Republican nominee than men, who were more likely to report the position had no effect on their support for Ayotte.

Voters were also informed about recent controversy surrounding Hassan allowing a teacher who engaged in sexual misconduct with a student to take a leadership role in her campaign. A majority of voters, 52.4 percent, claimed the information made them less likely to support Hassan, while 32.4 percent claimed the information made no difference, and 14.1 percent claimed it actually made them more likely to support Hassan.

The top issue in the minds of many Granite State voters is the opioid epidemic. The poll queried voters regarding their opinions about Hassan and Ayotte’s handling of the crisis. 44.5 percent of Granite State registered voters have a positive view of Ayotte’s handling of the crisis, while 22.7 percent have a negative view. 32.8% are undecided.

In contrast, Hassan is underwater on the issue, as 40 percent hold a negative view, 37 percent hold a positive view, and 23 percent are undecided.

InsideSources/NH Journal also surveyed respondents on primary support in the race for governor. Among the Republicans, 27 percent planned to vote for Chris Sununu, and 20.65 percent for Ted Gatsas, while Frank Edelblut, Jeanie Forester and Jonathan Lavoie received support in the single digits. 41.04 percent were undecided.

Colin Van Ostern led the Democratic race for the nomination, with 13.44 percent, while Mark Connolly, Derek Dextraze, Ian Freeman, and Steve Marchand trailed in the single digits. A sizeable proportion of Democratic registered voters, 70.6 percent, were undecided.

The generic Republican candidate for governor leads the generic Democrat 47 percent to 39.1 percent, with 13.7 percent unsure of who they would support.

The InsideSources/NH Journal poll was conducted July 19-21, 2016. Responses were collected via landlines from a random sample of 1,166 registered New Hampshire voters. This has a weighted margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent. To correct for bias, responses were weighted by sex, age, education, county, race, and number of registered voters in the household. Poll analysis was conducted by Praecones Analytica. InsideSources will be tracking races nationwide ahead of November’s elections.

READ THE FULL POLLING MEMO.