Now back for its sixth season, The Prospect Digest Handbook

has become a mainstay for baseball enthusiasts, minor league aficionados, and championship fantasy general managers. Touted by some of the titans of the fantasy world for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” last season’s Prospect Digest Handbook correctly predicted the meteoric rise of Deivi Garcia, Dylan Cease, Jesus Luzardo, Bryse Wilson, Brusdar Graterol, Chris Paddack, and many more! Pick up your print version hereand your eBook version here!

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1. Miguel Amaya, C

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50/55 55 30 55/60 60+

Background: Signed out of Panama in mid-July 2015, Amaya was the youngest qualified backstop in the Midwest League last season. In fact, Amaya joined Mario Feliciano and Francisco Mejia as the only qualified teenage backstops in the league since 2015. But the most impressive part for the Chicago’s young prospect was how his production stacked up against the aforementioned duo. Feliciano, who was only 18 during his stint in the Midwest League, posted an 87 wRC+ in 446 plate appearances and Mejia, who was a year older, finished his season with a 99 wRC+ total. Amaya’s production dwarfed his counterparts. In 116 games with the club’s Low Class A affiliate, the 6-foot-1, 185-pound prospect batted .256/.349/.403 with 21 doubles, two triples, and a dozen dingers. He also swiped a bag for good measure as well. He finished his third professional season with a career high 114 wRC+.

Analysis: Consider the following:

Since 2006 only four 19-year-old hitters have met the following criteria in the Midwest League (min. 350 PA): a 110 to 120 wRC+ total, a double-digit walk rate, and a sub-22% strikeout. Those four hitters are Rio Ruiz, Jeimer Candelario, Jason Martin, and – of course, Miguel Amaya.

Granted, similarly performing 19-year-olds haven’t gone on to accomplish great things in the big leagues. Ruiz owns a lowly 53 wRC+ in 72 games over parts of three separate brief looks. Candelario, who tallied 2.5 wins above replacement in 2018, owns a career .233/.324/.394 triple-slash line in 187 games. And Jason Martin barely cracked the Pirates’ Top 10 list as well. Amaya actually got off to a strong start to the year, slugging .284/.352/.484 over his first 78 games but cobbled together a pathetic .192/.342/.216 line over his final 38 contests – which isn’t surprising given his (A) age, (B) level of competition, and (C) defensive position. Chicago also develops hitters better than many other organizations as well. Amaya’s typically been an above-average defensive backstop. Throw in 20-homer potential, patience at the plate, strong contact skills, and age relative to level of competition and there’s a lot to like. I’m betting on the first 78 games, rather the entire season.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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2. Alex Lange, RHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 50 70 70 55/60 55+

Background: A three-year mainstay atop LSU’s rotation, Lange’s work with the SEC powerhouse was quite impressive: he made a total of 53 appearances, of them starts, throwing 349.1 innings with 406 strikeouts and just 143 walks to go along with a stellar 2.93 ERA. Chicago snagged the 6-foot-3, 197-pound right-hander at the backend of the first round two years ago. After throwing just 9.1 innings with Eugene during his debut, the front office pushed Lange straight up to the Carolina League for 2018. And the polished righty didn’t miss a beat. He made 23 starts with the Myrtle Beach Pelicans, posting a solid 101-to-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 120.1 innings of work. He finished his first full professional season with a 3.74 ERA and a 3.78 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

Analysis: Love him. Lange looks like the second coming of Kyle Hendricks – a right-hander with pinpoint control and phenomenal offspeed pitches. Lange’s 50-grade fastball was solid sink-and-run to it, allowing it to play up a tick. His curveball, one of the better ones in the minor leagues, shows hard, late downward bite, generating a lot of awkward knee jerks as it bends across the dish. And his changeup is absolutely lethal, especially when he starts is at the knees and allows the movement to fade down and away to lefties. Given his spotless history of health and performance, he’s one of the safest pitching prospects in the game. He’s probably a year away from stepping into a #3/#4-type role, though a late season call-up isn’t out of the question either.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

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3. Brailyn Marquez, RHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 70/75 45/50 40/45 50/55 60

Background: Blessed with one of the best – if not the ­best – arm in the Cubs’ minor league system. The lanky 6-foot-4, 185-pound southpaw still has some projection left in the tank – potentially. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in late August 2015, Marquez’s workload has been governed carefully by the organization. He tossed just 54.2 innings in the foreign rookie league and another 44.0 innings as he made the jump stateside two years ago. Last season, just his third in professional baseball, Marquez made 12 appearances between South Bend and Eugene, throwing 54.2 innings while recording 59 strikeouts and only 16 walks to go along with an aggregate 3.13 ERA. For his career, the big southpaw is averaging an impressive 9.3 strikeouts and 3.0 walks per nine innings with a 3.23 ERA.

Analysis: Big time fastball that explodes through the zone thanks to his whip-like long arms. Marquez’s heat sits comfortably in the 94- to 96-mph range and can reach upwards of triple-digits when needed. His secondary offerings, though, remain incredibly raw – like an open wound. Marquez’s curveball is slow and lacks depth and looks slider-esque in movement at times. And he needs to do a better job maintaining his arm speed on his below-average changeup. The big lefty is still a thrower in terms of control vs. command, but it’s a promising foundation for future development. In terms of production, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, only one other 19-year-old arm – Arizona’s Cody Reed – posted a 25% to 28% strikeout percentage with a walk percentage between 6% and 9% in the Northwest League (min. 40 IP).

Marquez’s fastball screams top of the rotation, but the secondary offerings yell career minor leaguer. He’s only entering his age-20 season, so he’s got some time to figure it out.

Ceiling: 3.0 to 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2022

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Hit Power SB Field Overall 55 40 40 60 55

Background: A three-year starter for The Cardinal, Hoerner was a three-sport standout during his prep career at Head-Royce High School, earning letters in baseball, basketball, and soccer. A native of Oakland, California, the 6-foot-1, 200-pound middle infielder had a decent showing as a true freshman for Stanford, batting .254/.298/.311 with eight doubles and a pair of triples. His production took noticeable strides forward while playing in the Northwoods League that summer, batting .304/.355/.397 in 62 games for the Madison Mallards. Hoerner carried that momentum into his sophomore campaign in 2017: in 58 games for the Pac-12 powerhouse, he slugged .307/.357/.406 with career highs in doubles (18), homeruns (one), stolen bases (two), and strikeout rate (8.0%). Hoerner was named All-Pac-12, All-Pac-12 Defensive Team, and All-Region Second-Team by ABCA/Rawlings. And while he showed massive improvements in his offensive prowess, he raised the bar even further during his time with the Yarmouth-Dennis Red Sox in the Cape Cod League. Squaring off against some of the elite collegiate-aged pitching in the country, Hoerner morphed into a legitimate middle-of-the-lineup thumper: In 40 games, he slugged .300/.356/.456 with seven doubles and six homeruns, tied for the sixth best mark in the league. And, once again, Hoerner carried that production into his next collegiate campaign as he set career bests in average (.343), on-base percentage (.397), slugging percentage (.502), stolen bases (15), walk rate (7.48 BB%), triples (six), and homeruns (two). Chicago snagged the middle infielder with the 24th overall pick last June and signed him to a $2,740,000 deal. Hoerner made three brief stops during his debut, hitting .327/.450/.571 with the club’s rookie ball, short-season, and Low Class A affiliates.

Analysis: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about the slick-fielding shortstop heading into the draft:

“A defensive-minded shortstop in the mold of former University of Arizona shortstop – and 2015 first round selection – Kevin Newman. With respect to the junior campaigns, consider the following comparisons:

Player Age PA AVG OBP SLG BB% K% SB CS Nico Hoerner 21 235 .343 .391 .490 8.09% 8.94% 14 4 Kevin Newman 21 264 .370 .426 .489 7.58% 5.68% 22 3

While Newman turned in the better offensive season, Hoerner’s power dwarfed his middle infield counterpart. So let’s expand things a bit and look at each player’s career numbers. Consider the following:

Player PA AVG OBP SLG BB% K% SB CS Hoerner 746 .301 .350 .403 6.30% 9.65% 17 7 Newman 773 .337 .396 .421 7.37% 6.21% 42 13

Obviously, Newman’s numbers easily best that of Hoerner’s. If Hoerner’s defense grades out as above-average – which it quite possibly will – he has a chance to develop into a fringy starting shortstop. He makes consistent contact and doesn’t swing-and-miss often. The walk rate is average, at best. And his power likely falls into the below-average territory. In terms of big league ceiling, think Adeiny Hechavarria circa 2015 (.281/.315/.374).”

I pegged Hoerner as a solid second round option, as well.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021/2022

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5. Adbert Alzolay, RHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 60 60 50 55 55

Background: Signed out ofPuerto Ordaz, Venezuela in early March 2013. It took a couple years for Alzolay to find his footing in professional ball, but he’s more than made up for it in the last two years. Alzolay split 2017 between the Carolina and Southern Leagues, throwing 114.1 combined innings, recording a promising 108-to-34 strikeout-to-walk ratio en route to tallying a career best 2.99 ERA. Chicago bumped the hard-throwing righty up to the minors’ final stop, Class AAA, to begin last season. And Alzolay looked like a potential late-season call-up through his first eight start, fanning 27 and walking just 13 in 39.2 innings of work with Iowa. But a severe lat strain knocked him out of action in late May. For his career, Alzolay is averaging 7.6 strikeouts and just 2.4 walks per nine innings.

Analysis: Watching the 6-foot, 179-pound right-hander pitch, one would guess he’d be in line for a punch out per inning based on pure stuff. His riding fastball sits 93 to 95 mph with ease. His snapdragon of a curveball has wicked 12-6 bite. And his changeup is at least an average offering. But Alzolay’s never truly dominated at any level – even though most of the time he’s been a touch old. His arrow’s been trending upward for the past 18 or so months. Right now, he looks like a #4-type arm.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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6. Cole Roederer, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 55 50 50 55 50

Background: And here’s the reason why the Cubs drafted University of San Diego right-hander Paul Richan in the second round and signed him well below the recommended slot bonus. Roederer, a tools laden center fielder, had a strong commitment to UCLA. Of course, throwing $1.2 million his way helped sway his decision to sign with the club after snagging him with the 77th overall selection last June. Roederer spent the entirety of his debut in the Arizona Summer League, hitting .275/.354/.465 with four doubles, four triples, and five homeruns. His production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 29%

Analysis: The Cubs essentially signed Roederer to a bonus given to the 56th or 57th overall pick. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, only five 18-year-old hitters met the following criteria in the Arizona Summer League (min. 150 PA): 125 to 135 wRC+ total, a walk rate between 10% and 14%, and a strikeout rate between 21% and 26%. Those five hitters: Robel Garcia, Daniel Carroll, B.J. Boyd, Jose Carlos Urena, and Monte Harrison.

Roederer shows a fairly polished approach at the plate: strong eye and power, decent contact rates, and above-speed and defense.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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Hit Power SB Field Overall 40 50 40 60 45+

Background: One of my favorite prospects in all of minor league baseball. Short’s story is fascinating and, well, far from short. The 5-foot-nothing middle infielder was a late round pick out of little Sacred Heart three years ago – after he batted a lowly .241/.352/.399 in 58 games. He ripped through rookie ball and handled himself well in the Northwest League during his debut, hitting an aggregate .257/.427/.339 in 53 total games. He split his sophomore professional season between South Bend and Myrtle Beach, batting a solid .250/.383/.419 with 28 doubles, six triples, and 13 homeruns. And last season Short, the 524th overall player taken in 2016, turned in one of the better seasons in Class AA. In 124 games with the Tennessee Smokies he slugged .227/.356/.417 with 28 doubles, two triples, 17 homeruns, and eight stolen bases. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 23%, the ninth best total in the Southern League.

Analysis: Average or better power potential? Check. Incredible eye at the plate? Check. Speed? Check. Plays a skilled position on defense? Check. The lone knock on Short – for the time being – is his below-average hit tool. But he does everything else well enough to carve out a career as sort of a super-sub/part-time starting middle infielder. Short’s a gamer. And I like that. His defense has ranged from above-average to plus at shortstop. Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 23-year-old hitters that posted a 118 to 129 wRC+ total in the Southern League with at least a 13% walk rate, and a punch out rate at least 22% (min. 350 PA): K.D. Lang, Zack Collins, one of the White Sox’s top prospects, and Zack Short.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

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8. Cory Abbott, RHP

FB CB SL/CU CH Control Overall 50 50 55 55 50/55 45+

Background: Abbott’s alma mater, Loyola Marymount University, has quietly churned out some impressive talent throughout the years: Billy Traber, a first round pick of the Mets in 2000, long time veteran C.J. Wilson, and current Angels infielder David Fletcher jump to mind immediately. And Abbott, the 67th player taken two years ago, could join his counterparts by accruing big league time in the next year-and-a-half or so. Abbott split his first full season in professional ball between the South Bend Cubs of the Midwest League and the Myrtle Beach Pelicans in the Carolina League, throwing 115.0 innings with an impressive 131 strikeouts and just 39 walks. He finished the year with a 2.50 ERA.

Analysis: Cut from the mold of a true pitcher, rather than a fireball-slinging thrower. Abbott fearlessly challenges hitters with a solid four-pitch repertoire: an average fastball that he commands well, an average 11-to-5 curveball, and two-above average offerings in his changeup and slider/cutter. The changeup, by the way, is underrated. His strikeout percentages last season – 30.8% in the Midwest League and 26.2% in the Carolina League – are deceiving as he was feasting off of inferior hitters. It’ll likely settle around the league average mark as he jumps into Class AA and above. He’s a safe, fast moving backend option. Nothing more. Nothing less.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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9. Brennen Davis, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 55 40/50 60 50 50

Background: The 62nd pick taken last June, Davis, a product of Basha High School, signed for a slightly above-slot bonus of $1.1 million. The speedy center fielder batted .298/.431/.333 in 18 rookie ball games.

Analysis: Very little to go off of – only an 18-game sample size. The 6-foot-4, 175-pound center fielder’s speed was on full display during his limited debut as he swiped six bags (in seven attempts) and played solidly in center field. Prior to signing, he was committed to play for the Miami Hurricanes.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2022

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10. Justin Steele, LHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 55 55/60 N/A 50 45

Background: A fifth round pick out of George County High School in 2014, Steele had a bit of breakout campaign for the Myrtle Beach Pelicans in 2017: in 20 starts the hard-throwing southpaw posted an 82-to-36 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 98.2 innings of work. That season, though, was cut short due to Tommy John surgery. The promising southpaw made it back to the mound midway through 2018, appearing in a handful of games in rookie ball, four starts in High Class A, and he capped off his return with two starts in Class AA. Steele finished the year with a 53-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 46.2 innings of work.

Analysis: During his first Class AA start, it was apparent that Steele was (A) still trying to shake the rust off his left arm and (B) his secondary offerings were inconsistent. His fastball shot out of his hand with relative ease, though he had trouble locating (again, which is to be expected). His curveball showed sharp, late 11-to-5 break. He looked to be exclusively fastball/curveball. Steele’s sort of a tweener: he’s always had good stuff, but he doesn’t profile as anything other than a spot-start/relief option.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.