The most eye-catching proposals in Labour’s draft manifesto are the plans to renationalise the railways, the energy market and Royal Mail, and to abolish university tuition fees.

Estimates of costings are difficult at this stage as the leaked draft is a menu without prices, but the party promises they will be fully costed.

Corbyn needs to find £10bn a year to make good on tuition fee pledge | Phillip Inman Read more

Railways

What the draft manifesto says: A Labour government will introduce a public ownership of the railways bill to repeal the Railways Act 1993 under which the Conservatives privatised our railways. In public ownership, we will deliver real improvements for passengers by freezing fares, introducing free wifi across the network, ensuring safe staffing levels and ending driver-only operation, and by improving accessibility for disabled people.

Analysis: Polling shows that more than 20 years after John Major’s Conservative government privatised the old British Rail, many commuters and the public are open to the idea of giving the state another go. Recent polls have shown 58-60% of the public back the idea. Public dissatisfaction with rail privatisation has partly been fuelled by a surge in passengers numbers far outstripping the extra investment in rolling stock, safety and stations.



But as the detail of the Labour’s manifesto pledge shows, this is no policy of 1970s-style state confiscation without compensation. The cautious phrase “as franchises expire” carefully limits the effect of this policy and avoids the problem of the cost of buying out the existing contracts. There are currently 15 rail franchises in place and their length varies from an initial seven to 10 years to longer 15-22-year contracts, so it is going to be a lengthy process.

Energy

What the manifesto says: Energy companies will be taken back into public ownership with central government control of transmission and distribution grids. There will be at least one publicly owned energy company in every region of the UK, that is a locally run, democratically accountable energy supplier, working to tackle fuel poverty and encouragement for community energy cooperatives.

Analysis: Labour promises to “ensure that the average dual fuel household energy bill remains below £1,000 a year”. The energy regulator Ofgem says the current average variable tariff is £1,086, so a cap of £1,000 would not be a big stretch for the providers. But without a fall in costs, the drop of £86 would rob them of their profits, which the regulator said averaged £47 per customer in 2015.

Labour would create a state-run energy supplier for each region to keep private operators honest. It would also take control of National Grid and the regulator to control this natural monopoly. National Grid is a private company and it is unclear how Labour plans to exercise control without nationalising it.

Royal Mail

What the manifesto says: The Conservative government’s privatisation of Royal Mail was a historic mistake, selling off another national asset on the cheap. Labour will reverse this privatisation at the earliest opportunity, because it is a profitable company that should still be giving a return to the many not the few, and because key national infrastructure like a postal system is best delivered in public ownership.

Analysis: A policy even more popular than renationalising the railways, with recent polls showing 67% of voters back the idea. The post office unions say Royal Mail was worth £10bn when it was sold in 2013 for £3.3bn.

Tuition fees

What the manifesto says: Labour believes education should be free, and we will restore this principle … Labour will reintroduce maintenance grants for university students, and we will abolish university tuition fees.

Analysis: Variable university tuition fees were introduced in 2006 under Labour, which argued they were a middle class subsidy paid for by working class voters. The coalition government raised them to £9,000 a year in England. The cost of scrapping tuition fees has been estimated at £8bn, with a further £2bn on top for reintroducing maintenance grants. When the costed manifesto is published, it will be pored over to see whether the pledge is to be funded from reversing the cuts in corporation and capital gains taxes that have already been earmarked elsewhere.



Party strategists hope it will the “big bazooka” that will attract younger voters, especially students and 18- to 24-year-olds who who still strongly support Labour.



Brexit

What the manifesto says: Labour accepts the referendum result. We will scrap the Brexit white paper and make retaining benefits of single market and customs union negotiating priorities. We will guarantee rights of EU nationals living in UK. We will reject any ‘no deal’ position and drop great repeal bill, replacing it with EU rights and protections bill to ensure no diminishing of workers’ rights, equality laws or consumer and environmental rights.

Analysis: It is wrong to say that the Labour manifesto is silent on Brexit. However, it will disappoint Labour remainers looking for a stronger commitment to staying in the single market while not particularly reassuring leave voters that the party is dedicated to delivering Brexit.

Immigration

What the manifesto says: No false promises on immigration numbers as the economy ‘needs migrant workers to keep going’. A desire to see “fair and managed migration”. That means scrapping £18,500 income threshold for UK citizens to bring non-European spouses to Britain that has led to separation of thousands of families. A migrant impact fund will be established to finance public services under additional pressure financed by existing visa levy.

Analysis: The manifesto implies Labour would scrap the Tories’ net migration target without giving any hint of its future approach to European migration post-Brexit, especially whether EU citizens will face a similar skills-based visa system that exists for non-EU citizens. The promise of a migrant impact fund is a long-standing Labour promise which has been matched by the Conservatives.

Business

What the manifesto says: Labour says it wants to discourage rocketing executive pay, short-termism and unscrupulous business behaviour, mentioning the BHS scandal, which it says was a high street shop “sacrificed for the sake of a quick buck”. There will be rewards for firms that pay a fair wage and respect the environment.

Analysis: A new deal for business means a more onerous regime of regulation for large companies and support for small firms and exporters with extra funds for trade promotion and a state-backed insurance that guarantees payment for exports even when foreign buyers go bust. Big firms considered “systemically important” will be shielded from foreign takeovers and protected from foreign firms dumping cheap goods in the UK, but directors will owe a duty to employees, suppliers and the environment and not just to shareholders.

Companies will also need to abide by strict rules when bidding for government contracts: complying with rules on workers’ rights, environmental protection and paying suppliers on time. Controversially, bidding firms will need to show that their highest-paid employee earns no more than 20 times the lowest. This will prevent Serco, Capita, G4S and all the other big outsourcing firms from running Britain’s prisons and IT systems without dramatic reductions in top pay.

National investment bank

What the manifesto says: Labour wants to establish a bank devoted to lending £250bn over 10 years to large-scale investment projects that the private sector cannot fund and make a profit. Regional development banks will be created and a law would be tabled preventing branch closures “where there is a clear local need”. Backing for research and development would also be one of its aims with a target of reaching 3% of GDP – higher than the OECD’s 2.4% average.

Analysis: Many eminent economists, including former Bank of England policymaker Adam Posen, have supported the idea of an investment bank. Initially, funds would come from the public purse. But the bank, which would be underwritten by the state, could keep these funds in reserve and only lend the private funds that will pour in from pension funds and other institutions looking for an ultra-safe home for their cash. With the Treasury cutting back on borrowing, it is the perfect time for an investment fund backed by the state to boost major infrastructure spending

Defence and foreign policy

What the manifesto says: Supports the renewal of the Trident submarine system “but any prime minister should be extremely cautious about the use of weapons of mass destruction”. Suspend any further arms sales to Saudi Arabia. Party remains committed to “a two-state solution” in Israel-Palestine.

Analysis: Appears at first sight to square the circle on an issue that has been one of the most corrosive in Labour’s history. Unlike the 1983 “non-nuclear” manifesto, it is not promising to scrap Britain’s nuclear deterrent, although Jeremy Corbyn’s refusal to guarantee he would press the nuclear button, as expressed in the “extremely cautious” wording, somewhat reduces its value.

Housing

What the manifesto says: Biggest council housebuilding programme for 30 years, with pledge to build “at least 100,000 council and housing association homes a year for genuinely affordable rent or sale”. Building new private sector homes will become a national infrastructure priority, with help to buy funding guaranteed until 2027. A pledge to end rough sleeping within five years includes 4,000 homes reserved for the homeless.

Analysis: Corbyn has pledged 1m new homes over five years. The manifesto does not quite put that figure on it but the scale of ambition is clear. At the 2015 general election, the Conservatives pledged to build a million new homes by 2020, but Labour claims housebuilding has fallen since 2010 to its lowest level since the 1920s. Previous Corbyn papers put a figure of £15bn a year on the cost of Labour’s housebuilding pledge.

Welfare

What the manifesto says: Promises to immediately scrap the bedroom tax, the punitive sanctions regime and reinstate housing benefit for the under-21s. A social security bill would repeal cuts in support to disabled people and adopt a new social model of disability, which means removing the barriers in society that disable people.

Analysis: Labour has promised to reverse the worst elements of Conservative social security policy from the past six years but the manifesto makes no attempt at serious reform of the welfare system.

Health and social care

What the manifesto says: More than £6bn extra in annual funding from increasing income tax on the top 5% of earners and increasing tax on private medical insurance. Guarantee access to NHS treatment within 18 weeks and being seen in A&E within four hours. Scrap NHS pay cap. Suspend planned hospital closures. Will put an extra £8bn into social care, including £1bn in the first year, to address the immediate crisis.

Analysis: This is expensive but is the one area of public life where throwing more money at it really could be the answer. The British Medical Association immediately responded by saying the NHS needed £10bn, not £6bn. All will depend on how the extra funding is raised. Simply focusing on the top 5% of earners is unlikely to yield the kind of sums needed. It will also mean massive expansion of the NHS workforce but there is little acknowledgement of the cost involved.

Best of the rest

• Labour will fund child burial fees for parents



• Plant 1m native trees

• Lower the voting age to 16

• Free public wifi in city centres and on public transport

• Inquiries into Orgreave, blacklisting and contaminated blood scandals

• National review of local pubs

• Poor roads – make utilities firms responsible for repairs.

• Ban third-party sale of puppies

• Enforce anti-bots legislation to prevent resale of sports/concert tickets.

