The Saudis have warned that they could push oil prices to $100 or $200 a barrel, an act that would probably plunge the American and global economies into recession. They have suggested that United States defense companies could forfeit tens of billions of dollars in deals that could instead go to Russia or China.

These threats by Saudi Arabia’s monarchy in recent days were its answer to America’s own threats of punishment over the disappearance and reported killing and dismemberment of a dissident journalist that has shocked the world.

Yet petroleum and defense experts have largely discounted such possibilities.

While Saudi Arabia is still the leading producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and can exert enormous influence over oil prices, it is no longer the energy superpower that American motorists feared during the Arab oil embargo era of the 1970s.

And as longstanding clients of the American arms industry, the Saudis cannot easily switch to other providers.