LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — Jeb Bush’s presidential run in Florida was supposed to be a coronation. Instead, it’s shaping up as a momentous clash against his one-time protégé, Marco Rubio.

At a Republican presidential forum here on Tuesday, many of the state’s well-heeled lobbyists, elite business leaders and grizzled power-brokers — some of them longtime Bush friends and allies — expressed a growing sense that the former governor was losing momentum in Florida’s all-important, winner-take-all March primary.


The likely beneficiary: Rubio, a once-junior figure on the state’s bare-knuckled political scene who — with his powerful rhetorical style, fresh political image and compelling personal story — is proving his mettle on the national stage.

“People here have been surprised by his staying power. They thought he’d be done,” said Adam McKinnon, a Republican consultant and Rubio supporter who is the grandson of former Florida GOP Sen. Paula Hawkins. “Marco is a more mature person than they remember. They remember him as a kid who won a state House seat.”

In private conversations, some said that after favoring the former governor early on, they were now taking a more serious look at the senator. One business leader, who requested anonymity for fear of alienating Bush, said there was an increasing sense that Rubio was simply a better communicator — and one who would carry the party’s banner more effectively in the general election.

“This is a group of people that, for the most part, likes Jeb. But there’s growing interest in Marco,” said Brian Ballard, a Tallahassee-based Republican lobbyist who is fundraising for Bush, acknowledging the chatter in the room. “The more people hear what he has to say, the more traction he gets.”

Bush acknowledges he’s in for a challenging campaign, even if he’s not ready to name Rubio specifically. “Look, it’s a rambunctious deal. We’ve got 75 people running I think, last time I checked? I hadn’t checked how many people announced today,” he joked on Tuesday while addressing the forum, which was held on the grounds of the Walt Disney Resort. “But it’s a big field. It’ll be competitive. There’s gonna be some elbows and knees under the boards. This isn’t tiddlywinks we’re playing.”

Rubio’s staying power echoes his 2010 come-from-behind U.S. Senate race, which few in Florida expected he would embark on and even fewer expected he would win. In that contest, he outmaneuvered a better-funded, establishment favorite in Charlie Crist, then a popular incumbent Republican governor.

As has become customary for Rubio, he recently delivered what could be interpreted as a few subtle jabs at the 62-year-old former governor. | AP Photo

The odds Rubio faces this time are similarly daunting. After launching his political committees in anticipation of a presidential bid in November, Bush seemed to lock down much of the support of the Florida Republican establishment. But as the primary contest has progressed, the state’s political class — “Jeb country,” as one person here described it — appears increasingly divided.

It’s the latest twist in a complex and intrigue-filled personal relationship between two of the state’s most popular pols. Florida’s GOP now appears poised for a painful nine-month run-up to the March 15 primary — one that’s sure to test loyalties, fray nerves and force Republicans to pick sides.

“People are very conflicted about it,”said former Florida Sen. George LeMieux, who counts himself a Bush backer, adding that there was the perception the state would play a central role in deciding who wins the nomination. “It’s hard.”

On Tuesday, at Gov. Rick Scott’s “Economic Growth Summit,” a Republican cattle call that drew a half-dozen presidential contenders, Bush spoke for 30 minutes about his economic vision, regaling the crowd of 300 or so attendees with stories from his gubernatorial days. Rubio, who remained in Washington, D.C., due to the ongoing deliberations over the PATRIOT Act, cut a recorded video.

As has become customary for Rubio, he delivered what could be interpreted as a few subtle jabs at the 62-year-old former governor. “Our outdated leaders continue to cling to outdated ideas,” he said. “I believe the time has come for a new generation of leaders.”

Few on either side of the divide are willing to publicly acknowledge the tension. (Asked in a Fox News interview on Tuesday if he was bracing for a clash with Rubio, Bush pushed back. “I don’t buy it,” he said. “This is a long process.”) Behind the scenes, though, it’s on the minds of many in Florida political circles. Cognizant of the desire for both candidates to have prime speaking slots, organizers of Tuesday’s confab gave Rubio the kickoff slot and Bush the finale.

Florida may have two strong home-state front-runners, but it remains pivotal in the Republican nominating contest — a reality that was on full display on Tuesday. One by one, the presidential hopefuls made their way to the stage, where they heaped praise on Scott, a relatively unpopular figure who nevertheless has deep connections in the world of Republican fundraising.

Those close to Scott say he’s nowhere near close to endorsing in the 2016 race — if he does, it won’t come until much later on — and that he has little interest in intervening in the fight between Florida’s favorite sons. Of the two, though, it’s believed that he’s closer to Rubio, who, like him, was elected to statewide office in 2010. When Scott was first running for governor in 2010, Bush endorsed his opponent. But in 2014, Bush endorsed Scott for reelection and appeared in TV ads supporting him.

In a POLITICO Playbook lunch, Scott demurred when asked if he had a preference, choosing instead to praise both.

Behind the scenes, several of the candidates organized get-togethers with the donors, operatives and lobbyists who Scott drew to the conference. Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Bush held receptions for supporters at the event, while New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie arranged private meetings. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who also held meetings, backtracked on remarks he made last week in which he seemed to suggest that he might not compete in the state becomes of the dominance of Rubio and Bush.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was noncommittal about competing in the Florida primary; also in attendance was Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, a Scott friend who shares political advisers.

“If you could get this crowd to support you, you could run a campaign on that alone, just with the support from this group,” said Ballard, marveling at the deep pockets and political influence of those who’d gathered.

Yet, when it comes to fighting for their support, Bush isn’t ready to take on Rubio. At least not openly.

Asked about Rubio’s implicit critique of him in his video speech — that he’s an “outdated” leader — Bush shrugged.

“It’s kind of hard to imagine,” he said, “that my good friend Marco would be critical of his good friend Jeb.”

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story inaccurately stated that Walker rushed out of the building after the forum. The governor conducted a press availability and held meetings in the building before leaving.

CORRECTION: Corrected by: Hannah Trudo @ 06/03/2015 04:14 PM CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story inaccurately stated that Walker rushed out of the building after the forum. The governor conducted a press availability and held meetings in the building before leaving.