Update: 13th May Here is the final full table. I think we did pretty well again.



We'll be back with a new Cancellation Predictor Table for 2012/13 later in the year.



Hope you enjoyed this!







Update: 12th May Added all the recent NBC and ABC Renewals.

Update: 10th May Added Alcatraz and Finder Cancellations and Touch Renewal.

Update: 9th May Private Practice moves to the "In Danger Zone"

Update: 28th April Latest tables and include Best Friends Forever cancellation.

Update: 27th April Fringe Renewed :)

Update: 26th April Don't Trust the Bitch moves in the "In Danger Zone". Best Friends Foreever moves into the "Likely to be Cancelled"

Update: 16th April NYC 22 added to table (already in trouble). GCB moves into the "In Danger" zone.

Update: 12th April Don't Trust the Bitch.. added to table.

Update: 11th April Latest table posted

Update: 9th April Added renewals for New Girl, Raising Hope and Glee

Update: 6th April Scandal added to table.

Update: 5th April Best Friends Forever added and already in the In Danger Zone.

Update: 30th March Awake Moves into the Likely to be Cancelled Zone, Secret Circle moves into the In Danger Zone

Update: 22nd March Bent added to table already in the Likely to Be Cancelled Zone.

Update: 21st March Breaking In moves into the Likely to be Cancelled Zone.

Update: 16th March Missing added to table

Update: 15th March Added new CBS Renewals.

Update: 14th March Breaking In moves into the "In Danger" zone.

Update: 13th March Awake moves into the "In Danger Zone".

Update: 13th March Alcatraz moves into the "In Danger Zone"

Update: 12th March Bob's Burgers added to Table.

Update: 7th March Breaking In added to table.

Update: 6th March Terra Nova added to the Cancelled List

Update: 5th March GCB added to table

Update: 2nd March Awake added to Table.

Update: 29th Feb Ringer and Cougartown fall further into the Danger Zone. The River is now in the "Likely to be Cancelled" zone.

Update: 21st Feb Gossip Girl moves into the "Likely to be Cancelled" zone.

Update: 20th Feb Big update today with a number of shows moving into the "In Danger" zone.

Update: 17th Feb Parks and Recreation moves into the "In Danger" zone.

Update: 16th Feb Law and Order SVU, The River and Cougar Town all move into the "In Danger" zone.

Update: 9th Feb House marked as Cancelled.

Update: 8th Feb The River opens with modest numbers

Update: 7th Feb Smash opens to good numbers.

Update: 3rd Feb 30 Rock moves into the "In Danger" zone.

Update: 30th Jan CSI Miami moves into the "In Danger" zone.

Update: 27th Jan The Finder moves out of the "In Danger" zone..just

Update: 26th Jan Touch added to table with strong premiere ratings.

Update: 24th Jan Latest table posted.

Update: 20th The Firm moves into the "Likely to be cancelled" zone, Secret Circle goes into the "Danger Zone"

Update: 19th Jan The Firm and Are You There Chelsea both move into the "In Danger" zone.

Update: 17th Jan Alcatraz enters the charts to good ratings

Update: 16th Jan Napoleon Dynamite opens with strong numbers.

Update: 14th Jan Work It marked as Cancelled.

Update: 13th Jan The Firm enters the In Danger Zone, ROB opens strong, and The Finder start poorly.

Update: 12th Jan One Tree Hill and Are You There Chelsea go into the table following their premiers last night



Update: 11th Jan Work It moves into the Likely to be Cancelled Zone after just 2 episodes.



Update: 9th Jan Allen Gregory marked as cancelled and The Firm already in the In Danger Zone



Update: 4th Jan Work It! immediately enters the "In Danger" zone after just 1 episode.



Update: 3rd Jan First update of 2012



Update: 8th Dec I Hate My Teenage Daughter moves into the "In Danger" zone after just 2 episodes!

Update: 2nd Dec I Hate My Teenage Daughter enters the table after it's premiere on Wednesday



Update: 30th Nov Pan Am marked as Cancelled, Allen Gregory and Body of Proof move into the "Likely to be Cancelled" zones.

Update: 22nd Nov Terra Nova is moving very close to the In Danger Zone!



Update: 21st Nov Man Up now marked as Cancelled



Update: 16th Nov Man Up and moves into the Likely to be Cancelled Zone, and Prime Suspect now marked as Cancelled.



Update: 12th Nov Fringe move back into the Likely to be Cancelled zone :(



Update: 5th Nov Fringe moves from Likely to be Cancelled to In Danger.. but only just.



Update: 4th Nov Bones enters the chart with good premiere ratings and the recent ABC Full Season Pickups have been updated.



Update: 3rd Nov Harry's Law enters the Likely to be Cancelled zone :(



Update: 31st October Allen Gregory enters the chart to low initial numbers. Once Upon a Time still doing well.



Update: 29th October Grimm enters the table to a good start but Chuck hits a series low.



Update: 26th October Body of Proof and new Man Up enter the "In Danger Zone". Modern Family overtakes Two and Half Men as the "safest" show.



Update: 24th October Once Upon a Time opens very strong and Pan Am moves into the Likely to be Cancelled zone.



Update: 21st October Rules of Engagement enters with strong premiere numbers.



Update: 19th October Man Up enters the table to mediocre numbers. Ringer and Secret Circle move out of the "In Danger" zone .. just :)



Update: 15th Oct Fringe unfortunately moves into the "Likely to be Cancelled" area :(



Update: 13th October Update All Night enters the "Danger Zone". Hart of Dixe, Ringer and The Secret Circle marked as Full Season Pickup.



Update: 12th October Last Man Standing enters the charts well. Also Prime Suspect moves into the "Danger Zone"



Update: 11th October Hart of Dixie moves into the "Danger Zone"



Update: 10th October Free Agents and How to Be a Gentleman both now in the Cancelled zone. Pan Am moves into the "In Danger" zone and Charlie's Angels enters the "likely to be cancelled" zone. So far the Cancellation Prediction table is looking pretty accurate this season.



Update: 5th October We had our first casualty yesterday in The Playboy Club as our Table predicted. The tables are slowly stabilising and as we get more data in they will hopefully become more and more accurate. Also, moving into the Likely to be Cancelled zone are Free Agents and A Gifted Man.



NOTE: That until we have at least 3-4 weeks of data for each show that this table is not going to be very accurate and it will vary a lot each update. Once we have 3-4 weeks of data we'll post our predictions for the Season ahead and we can then track how we are doing. We'll try to update the full Cancellation Table every couple of days as we get new data in.

(Click to Enlarge - Press CTRL-F5 on the image page to get the latest)

Notes:

1) The Higher the Index Rating the more likely a show is to get cancelled, lower numbers = safety.

2) This is an ongoing exercise that I hope to refine each week to make the index more accurate.

3) Only the major networks are included currently ie ABC/FOX/CW/CBS/NBC.

4) This is a weekly update of all the shows using our own formula based on the viewing numbers and + 7 Numbers. These 2 factors are the main weighting of the Index number, however we also factor in things such as the Network they are on (eg CW shows get lower numbers), the day of week they air (eg Fridays are lower numbers), DVR Numbers and +7 numbers,DVD/Blu-Ray Sales,Production Costs, Cast Contracts/Availability, Syndication, online popularity such as streamed views and Torrents etc.

5) Shows still might not get renewed despite good numbers due eg a show coming to an end of run eg Chuck is in it's finale season no matter what the ratings are etc or could be due to key cast wanting to leave after their contracts have expirted. An example might be Supernatural if it’s two leads, Jared and Jensen wanted out, would Supernatural be renewed even if it had good numbers but no leads for the new season? etc

6) Shows that have been renewed for a New Season are marked in Blue

7) Shows with an Index over 3.00 are likely to be cancelled, 2.50-2.99 - in danger and less that 2.50 safe. Although shows nearer 2.50 are more in danger than a show with a lower index.



If you have any questions/suggestions, please don't hesitate in asking in the comments below.