Oct 4, 2017

On Sept. 26, a day after the Kurdish referendum, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave a harsh speech criticizing Massoud Barzani, the leader of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Erdogan questioned what Barzani possibly could be expecting of this referendum given the fact that he cannot pay his own bureaucrats’ salaries and had to borrow $1.5 million from Turkey. Erdogan was disappointed that Barzani did not even bother to consult with him about this referendum. Erdogan said, “Up until the last minute, we did not expect Barzani to make such a decision [to hold the referendum], but we were wrong. In a time when our relations were at its best, we consider this decision [to be] treachery against our country.” Erdogan also emphasized his doubts about the voter turnout and legitimacy of the results of the referendum, while repeatedly highlighting Israeli meddling for an independent Kurdistan. Erdogan warned attempts at Kurdish independence would harm both Turkish-Israeli and Turkish-KRG relations. Still, he did not utter a word about other Arab countries’ support toward the KRG.

From his long speech, one sentence particularly struck a chord in Turkish social media. #YineKandirilmislarYetisin (Help, they have been fooled again) started trending immediately with hundreds of satirical comments. The confession of being deceived is a tool Erdogan frequently uses whenever his brotherly relations collapse. He has used similar arguments for Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, US President Barack Obama, the Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and the Fethullah Gulen movement, to name just a few. However, this time comments not only ridiculed Erdogan, but also were critical and harsh, highlighting the costs of Erdogan’s wrong decisions and misguided policies for the country. In addition, a few courageous columnists such as Ahmet Nesin of the Arti Gercek news portal turned the tables on Erdogan’s argument, stating that the list of “those who were deceived by Erdogan” is rather long.

Yet the most critical piece came Sept. 27 from Kurdish daily Rudaw, known for its close links with Barzani. (On the day of the Sept. 25 referendum and through an emergency meeting, the Turkish media censorship agency shut down Rudaw and a few other Kurdish outlets.) Rudaw’s editor Rebwar Kerim Weli asked, “President Erdogan, how can you be so gullible?” In Turkey, Weli’s words were read widely and published as a de facto statement from Barzani. He asked why Kurds should seek permission from Erdogan to hold a referendum in Iraq. He bluntly stated that Barzani did not fool Erdogan; rather, Erdogan deceived the Kurdish people while seeking the votes he needed to become the president. Weli spoke of Erdogan’s threat to enforce sanctions for the transportation of crude oil from Kurdistan and vaguely questioned why Turkey had not shut down the valve before and stopped its ships from transporting the oil.

Perhaps most striking among Weli’s comments was one about the legitimacy of the election. He said, “For your presidential system, the referendum receiving 51.4% vote is seen as legitimate, but not 92% in Kurdistan? Is it because we are Kurdish?”

Unable to digest his failures, Erdogan could be using the being "deceived” argument as a shield. This is the explanation of scholars such as Timur Kuran, a professor of economics and political science and Gorter Family professor of Islamic Studies at Duke University. He told Al-Monitor: “Erdogan has been playing victim since the start of his political life. He has cultivated the image of a warm-hearted and trusting person who gets victimized by cunning politicians because of his naivete. His base has bought into this image. Hence, when he says that Gulen, Obama or Barzani tricked him, it resonates with his base. His followers imagine that he negotiated with them in good faith, only to be stabbed [in] the back.” To explain Erdogan’s reasoning, we should look beyond Turkey’s national interests but at Erdogan’s survival needs.