NEW DELHI: It’s midterm for Modi government, and the economy has finally found four legs to walk on, instead of limping along on just two – 8% growth can be posted this year itself. Economists, policy experts and government’s economic managers all say that the uptick is getting stronger.Public investment and urban consumption demands had been the two growth-drivers, but now good monsoon-led rural demand and stabilising exports are also in the mix. IMF says India’s growth will be 7.4% this year. But many independent experts reckon 8% this year is possible.And things will get even better if private investment picks up on the back of broader demand revival – but that’s still a biggish if. India Inc’s high-voltage capex is the fifth leg the economy is looking for. Independent estimates show public investment in infrastructure could rise up to 25%, and farm sector growth could be as high as 4%, from 1.2% last year.There are plenty other data points. Tractor sales rose 15% in the first quarter of 2016-17, albeit from a low base, two-wheeler sales were up 14% and light commercial vehicle sales, up 12%.After 18 months of contraction, exports recovered to post a modest 1.3% growth in June. "Certainly, the rural economy is showing signs of early revival, but these are early days," says Abheek Barua, chief economist, HDFC Bank, who has a good monsoon counted in his 7.6-7.8% estimate. Morgan Stanley has revised its estimate for 2016-17 to 7.7% from 7.5% earlier. "There are three things working this year that were not there last year — monsoons, increments to public sector staff and impact of lower interest rates," says DK Joshi, chief economist of CRISIL, adding that growth could cross 8% if August rains are as good.Good rains have meant that crop area sown has already jumped 6.3%, with a big spike in pulse sowing, which can deliver much better incomes to farmers. National reservoirs are currently at 94% of ten-year average, and if the monsoon continues as forecast, should be brimming over and support a good winter crop, and help next year. Impact will start showing even before the Kharif crop is in. "Going ahead, assuming rainfall is evenly distributed across time and regions, we expect GDP growth to rise to 7.9%, agricultural growth to come in above trend at 4%," ratings agency Crisil said in a report last week. Government says it has provided a congenial and conducive policy to make a good monsoon count. "Budget and other measures – greater emphasis on rural roads, step up on irrigation spending to start projects, de-bottlenecking of highways and higher MSP for pulses – have provided that support," says Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das.The other missing leg of growth, exports, turned around with a small 1.27% growth in June, reversing an 18-month decline. The outlook is not bright after Brexit threw a spanner in works, but the fact that exports are stabilising or just growing marginally can give a bit of kick to growth. Here’s a little bit of economics to strengthen the case. GDP is the sum of consumption, investments and net exports (exports minus imports). That exports are not declining at a fast pace means that they are not pulling down overall growth, even if not contributing heavily. "We expect the drag from exports to lessen going forward," Morgan Stanley said in a report. Dollar exports had declined nearly 16% in March. Das says the new textiles package that seeks to make the sector competitive will help in the short term as well, apart providing a long-term boost to jobs.Public investment has increased less sharply so far this fiscal year compared to last. Total capital spending, minus loans disbursed, was Rs 26,090 crore in the first quarter, much less than nearly Rs 41,000 crore in the same period last year. Payouts thanks to the 7th Pay Commission and 14th Finance Commission have reduced government capex abilities. But extra budgetary funding through Nabard for irrigation and the National Infrastructure Investment Fund (NIIF) for other infrastructure will still keep public investment high. And rising foreign investments will add to capital formation in infrastructure; in rupee terms, foreign direct equity investment was up 39% in the last fiscal. Including extra-budgetary funding, Morgan Stanley expects public infrastructure spending to rise 24% in FY17. Every expert hopes government investment plus FDI will sooner rather than later get private investment going.Already robust urban demand will get a boost from the 7th Pay Commission. In September, central government employees with receive on an average 15% higher salaries. They will also get arrears for the first seven months. Consumer durables, autos and real estate are likely beneficiaries, especially since banking liquidity conditions are also better. "There are two catalysts – an increase in public sector wages/pensions and a strong monsoon – that will provide timely tailwinds to domestic demand," DBS said in a report.There are, as always, a few: bank credit to millions of small and medium enterprises and smaller corporates haven’t picked up – these are the companies that comprise the biggest chunk of the private sector. Perversely, inflation, given that companies need lower rates, is also in a worrying zone. Global economy is very tentative: the US is doing ok, but China could receive another jolt. Das says domestic investment will revive as the government is addressing banking sector issues while other structural reforms such as FDI and ECB liberalisation are improving sentiment. "GST will add to sentiment," he says. If he’s right, and if the economy finds its fifth leg, good times may finally arrive.