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The trick, he wrote in a note Friday, is to figure out whether the life is just temporary or whether the currency has turned a corner.

Here is what moved the loonie this week, and Porter’s assessment of whether it will stick around:

1) Oil is up: While the 50% plunge in oil prices since last June was the main culprit in the loonie’s decline, so is oil’s rally this week behind the dollar’s rally. Crude has had its ups and downs lately but the WTI is still up 8% on the week, with the Brent making similar moves.

Sustainability: “Moderate. While there have been some hopeful supply and demand developments in recent weeks, we would be cautious on the near-term oil outlook, and would note that there have been false dawns before on this front. Still, it increasingly looks like oil has put in a bottom, and the bad news is already built into the currency,” writes Porter.

2) A less dovish Bank of Canada: “Any sign that the BoC is starting to pull back from its dovish tendencies is good news for the C$, and we saw a big dose of that this week,” writes Porter. Bets on another rate cut anytime soon tanked this week after the Bank said the oil shock wasn’t going to be any worse than it thought and the output gap would close by late 2016. A surge in inflation and retail sales Friday bolstered that outlook. A week ago, the market was fully priced for another 25 bp cut; those odds are now at less than 50%, said Porter.

Sustainability:“High. We can’t shut the door on the BoC delivering another shock, but this factor looks more sustainable. We doubt the Bank will cut again.”