The U.S. economy’s performance in the first quarter of Donald Trump’s presidency looks an awful lot like the first quarter in Barack Obama’s last year in office: weak.

Economists polled by MarketWatch predict gross domestic product grew just 1% in the first three months of the year, down from a 2.1% pace in the fourth quarter. The report will be released Friday.

Similarly, the U.S. expanded at a 0.8% clip in the first quarter of 2016, just as Obama’s last year as president got under way.

Yet GDP, the official report card for the economy, is often an incomplete means of judging growth — never mind judging presidents. That’s especially true in the first quarter when winter is at its worst.

The government has repeatedly had trouble getting a good read on first-quarter growth, a problem that’s more a matter of statistics than any fundamental change in the direction of economy. Typically weak first quarters are followed by strong second quarters.

“There’s a lot going on beneath what will be a weak headline growth number, which virtually no one sees as an accurate portrayal of the state of the U.S. economy,” said Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial.

More to the point, Trump has also only been president for two-thirds of the first quarter. Most of his economic policies are still being shaped or debated in Congress.

What might be more worrisome are the early indications for spring.

Consumer spending has been soft. Surveys of executives have shown a drop-off in business. And hiring appears to have slowed. So far there’s little evidence of a sharp rebound in second-quarter growth like there was in the past three years.

It’s early, though.

Fresh reports this week are likely to show the house sales and new construction remain on the up and up. And a report on orders for long-lasting or durable goods is expected to underscore that a revival in business investment is still under way.

“Consumers might have taken a breather, but businesses likely picked up the baton,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Nonetheless, the seeming pause in U.S. growth — a common hiccup during the eight-year-old recovery — could give the Federal Reserve more cause to reassess the economy before raising interest rates again.

It will also give the central bank and a suddenly more doubtful Wall Street, heady in the early days of Trump’s presidency, time to see how White House proposals pan out on health care, taxes and trade.

If the economy ramps up again, the central bank can resume its plan of gradually raising the cost of borrowing.

Economists are betting on it.

They point to record job openings, low unemployment and higher wages as evidence consumers are better off financially than they have been in years. And almost every major U.S. industry is on the upswing, unlike a few years ago when energy producers and manufacturers fell on tougher times.

“While the soft patch in economic activity appears to be lingering into April, there is no need to abandon expectations for somewhat stronger economic activity in the second half of the year,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West.