I ran a monthly poll through the 2015 Oscar race on the Movie Awards board asking 'What do you think will win Best Picture?' Films are listed in order of their latest appearance. Blue indicates Best Picture nominee. Red indicates the Best Picture winner.



Films that were our consensus #1: 01. Spotlight - 4 months 02. Bridge of Spies - 3 months 03. Carol - 2 months 04. The Revenant - 1.5 months 05. Joy - 1 month 06. Silence - 1 month



Final Poll (out of 84 votes): 01. The Revenant - 52 (61.9%) 02. Spotlight - 25 (29.8%) 03. The Big Short - 7 (8.3%)



February (out of 66 votes): 01. The Revenant - 54 (81.8%) 02. The Big Short - 7 (10.6%) 03. Spotlight - 5 (7.6%)



January (out of 63 votes): 01. Spotlight - 34 (54.0%) 02. The Revenant - 12 (19.0%) 03. The Big Short - 9 (14.3%) 04. Mad Max: Fury Road - 7 (11.1%) 05. Room - 1 (1.6%)



December (out of 57 votes): 01. Spotlight - 41 (71.9%) 02. Carol - 10 (17.5%) 03. The Martian - 4 (7.0%) 04. The Big Short - 1 (1.8%) 05. Mad Max: Fury Road - 1 (1.8%)



November (out of 75 votes): 01. Spotlight - 33 (44.4%) 02. Joy - 16 (21.3%) 03. The Revenant - 10 (13.3%) 04. Carol - 6 (8.0%) 05. The Martian - 6 (8.0%) 06. The Hateful Eight - 2 (2.7%) 07. Brooklyn - 1 (1.3%) 08. Sicario - 1 (1.3%)



October (out of 79 votes): 01. Spotlight - 23 (29.1%) 02. Joy - 18 (22.8%) 03. Carol - 13 (16.5%) 04. The Revenant - 7 (8.9%) 05. Steve Jobs - 7 (8.9%) 06. The Hateful Eight - 3 (3.8%) 07. The Martian - 3 (3.8%) 08. Bridge of Spies - 1 (1.3%) 09. Room - 1 (1.3%) 10. Son of Saul - 1 (1.3%) 11. Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens - 1 (1.3%) 12. Trumbo - 1 (1.3%)



September (out of 71 votes) 01. Carol - 16 (22.5%) 02. Joy - 13 (18.3%) 03. Steve Jobs - 12 (16.9%) 04. Spotlight - 10 (14.1%) 05. The Danish Girl - 5 (7.0%) 06. The Revenant - 5 (7.0%) 07. Beasts of No Nation - 2 (2.8%) 08. Bridge of Spies - 2 (2.8%) 09. The Martian - 2 (2.8%) 10. Sicario - 2 (2.8%) 11. The Hateful Eight - 1 (1.4%) 12. Trumbo - 1 (1.4%)



August (out of 64 votes): 01. Joy - 14 (21.9%) 02. The Danish Girl - 8 (12.5%) 03. Spotlight - 8 (12.5%) 04. Steve Jobs - 8 (12.5%) 05. Carol - 7 (10.9%) 06. The Revenant - 5 (7.8%) 07. Bridge of Spies - 4 (6.3%) 08. Brooklyn - 2 (3.1%) 09. The Hateful Eight - 2 (3.1%) 10. Suffragette - 2 (3.1%) 11. By The Sea - 1 (1.6%) 12. Our Brand Is Crisis - 1 (1.6%) 13. Silence - 1 (1.6%)



July (out of 61 votes): 01. Silence - 11 (18.0%) 02. Steve Jobs - 10 (16.4%) 03. Bridge of Spies - 9 (14.8%) 04. Carol - 7 (11.5%) 05. Joy - 7 (11.5%) 06. The Danish Girl - 6 (9.8%) 07. Suffragette - 6 (9.8%) 08. The Hateful Eight - 2 (3.3%) 09. By The Sea - 1 (1.6%) 10. Macbeth - 1 (1.6%) 11. The Revenant - 1 (1.6%)



June (out of 74 votes): 01. Bridge of Spies - 16 (21.6%) 02. Silence - 15 (20.3%) 03. Joy - 11 (14.9%) 04. Carol - 10 (13.5%) 05. Steve Jobs - 9 (12.2%) 06. The Danish Girl - 3 (4.1%) 07. The Revenant - 3 (4.1%) 08. Suffragette - 3 (4.1%) 09. The Hateful Eight - 2 (2.7%) 10. Spotlight - 2 (2.7%)



May (out of 67 votes): 01. Bridge of Spies - 18 (26.9%) 02. Joy - 12 (17.9%) 03. Silence - 11 (16.4%) 04. The Hateful Eight - 6 (9.0%) 05. Carol - 5 (7.5%) 06. The Revenant - 4 (6.0%) 07. The Sea of Trees - 2 (3.0%) 08. Steve Jobs - 2 (3.0%) 09. Brooklyn - 1 (1.5%) 10. The Danish Girl - 1 (1.5%) 11. Inside Out - 1 (1.5%) 12. The Lobster - 1 (1.5%) 13. Spotlight - 1 (1.5%) 14. Suffragette - 1 (1.5%) 15. Trumbo - 1 (1.5%)



April (out of 58 votes): 01. Carol - 14 (24.1%) 02. Bridge of Spies - 12 (20.6%) 03. The Hateful Eight - 8 (13.8%) 04. Joy - 6 (10.3%) 05. The Revenant - 4 (6.9%) 06. Spotlight - 3 (5.2%) 07. Steve Jobs - 3 (5.2%) 08. The Sea of Trees - 2 (3.4%) 09. Silence - 2 (3.4%) 10. Suffragette - 2 (3.4%) 11. The Danish Girl - 1 (1.7%) 12. Inside Out - 1 (1.7%)



March (out of 74 votes): 01. Bridge of Spies - 22 (29.7%) 02. Carol - 10 (13.5%) 03. Joy - 7 (9.5%) 04. The Revenant - 6 (8.1%) 05. The Hateful Eight - 5 (6.8%) 06. Inside Out - 5 (6.8%) 07. The Sea of Trees - 4 (5.4%) 08. Silence - 4 (5.4%) 09. The Danish Girl - 2 (2.7%) 10. Spotlight - 2 (2.7%) 11. Brooklyn - 1 (1.4%) 12. The Light Between Oceans - 1 (1.4%) 13. The Secret Scripture - 1 (1.4%) 14. Spectre - 1 (1.4%) 15. Steve Jobs - 1 (1.4%) 16. Suffragette - 1 (1.4%) 17. Tulip Fever - 1 (1.4%)



From a similar voting body - The IMDb Critics Circle Top 100 Films of 2015: http://letterboxd.com/rustneversleeps/list/imdb-critics-circles-top-100-films-of-2015/