Republicans are heavily favored to retain control of the House -- so far. Fiscal fight could remake Hill in '14

Not again.

That’s the message several national GOP strategists and some lawmakers have for Republicans hell bent on waging another fiscal fight this fall.


The 2014 midterm season is about to heat up – and President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies are eager to tag the GOP as the root cause of Washington dysfunction. The Republicans say they can ill afford another game of high-stakes brinksmanship in the looming negotiations over raising the debt ceiling and funding the government.

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“The only way Republicans will lose the House is to shut down the government or default on the debt,” said Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole, a former National Republican Congressional Committee chairman. “Shutting down the government is not in the best interests of the American people and it makes you look politically irresponsible.”

“I’m not inclined to jeopardize the crown jewel,” Cole added, “and the House of Representatives is the crown jewel in this election cycle.”

Capitol Hill has been immersed in debate over immigration and the farm bill, but that will change once Congress returns from its August recess. There’s an Oct. 1 due date for passing a continuing resolution to keep the government funded, and the nation is expected to hit its borrowing limit sometime between October and the end of the year.

Congressional Republicans are just beginning to put together a debt ceiling and government funding strategy, and there’s growing division within the party over what path to take.

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House GOP leaders and many rank-and-file lawmakers appear to be itching for another showdown with the White House over raising the debt ceiling — one of the few real leverage points they have to deliver on their pledge to cut spending.

In the Senate, a trio of potential 2016 GOP contenders — Marco Rubio of Florida, Ted Cruz of Texas, and Rand Paul of Kentucky — want to defund Obamacare as part of a deal to keep the government open. Other Republicans are warning the party shouldn’t go there: Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) called it the “dumbest idea” he had ever heard.

How those battles play out is likely to become a dominant political story line heading into the election year. That’s especially true in the battle for the House, because it’s been center stage for Washington’s recurring fiscal drama ever since the tea party-led GOP takeover of the chamber in 2010.

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Republicans head into 2014 heavily favored to retain control of the House. Thanks largely to the recently-completed redistricting process, which shored up many Republican incumbents, only a few GOP seats are considered to be truly in jeopardy. The Cook Political Report actually projects that Republicans will expand their 17-seat majority by between two and seven seats.

To lose the chamber, Republicans argue, something drastic would need to happen – an epic event that Democrats could blame them for. Something, say, on the magnitude of a default or a government shutdown.

Such a scenario could complicate the party’s already uphill climb to capture the Senate.

“If you ask me what is the one thing that could reshuffle the deck on an otherwise stable mid-term environment in 2014, the answer is a government shutdown,” said Brock McCleary, a GOP pollster and former NRCC deputy executive director. “Convincing voters that the other side is to blame would become a game of high-stakes politics.”

Another strategist who is deeply involved in the House GOP’s planning for the midterms said: “A government shutdown could change the current 2014 dynamic and put a number of seats in play that aren’t in play today.”

While the prospect of a fiscal confrontation gives national GOP strategists heartburn, it’s a fight many members don’t mind having – to the contrary, it’s one they want. Of the 234 House Republicans, just four – less than two percent – hold seats that tilt toward Democrats.

For the vast majority of House Republicans, a bigger threat is a primary challenge from the right, not a Democrat in the general election. As it happens, the congressional primary season will kick off just a few months after the fiscal fireworks, in Texas on March 4.

Some Republican lawmakers say voters want them to stand strong.

“The conservative crowd is definitely focused on the upcoming battles over the continuing resolution and the debt ceiling,” said GOP Rep. Jeff Duncan, who occupies a conservative seat in South Carolina.

Voters in his district, Duncan said, would “rather see Republicans veer more to the right” on spending issues.

And those members are coming under pressure from outside groups like the Club for Growth, which is threatening to support primary challenges against incumbents who go wobbly on government spending. The group recently announced its support for an insurgent-minded candidate looking to unseat Idaho Rep. Mike Simpson, an ally of House Speaker John Boehner.

National Republican officials say they’ve done everything imaginable the past few years to convince the House rank-and-file that fiscal battles are eroding the party’s popularity and hurting its prospects in general elections. Trying again, they say, won’t do any good.

While the inability of the GOP-controlled House to approve a comprehensive immigration reform package has dominated the congressional agenda and headlines in recent weeks, it’s unclear how much bang Democrats will be able to get out of that issue in 2014 since only a few dozen House Republicans have a sizable Hispanic population in their district.

Instead, immigration is likely to be part of a broader Democratic case against House Republicans as symbols of what the public despises most about Washington. A government shutdown or default is the type of jolt that could make that argument resonate with voters in a way the immigration fight does not.

In a recent interview, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Executive Director Kelly Ward said her party planned to highlight “the inability of Republicans to actually govern and the impact that that failure in their leadership has on the American people, and that is a real narrative that is developing…”

“We don’t have to create that message or that pattern, they’re doing it,” she said. “Every big issue that comes up, the chaos and dysfunction of this caucus really drives the agenda and the way they cater to the extreme tea party base within their caucus really drives their output on legislation, and it’s a real problem for the American public.”

Some Republicans say the party shouldn’t shy away from the fiscal battles. Voters, they say, want to see the GOP take a hard line on spending – even if it means some brinksmanship.

“The greatest risk for Republicans is for them to continue to disappoint their supporters. I don’t think they’ve inspired them or given them a reason to support them in quite a while,” said Chris Chocola, the president of the Club for Growth. “At some point, they have to communicate to people there is a difference between Republicans and Democrats.”