Why New Brunswick has much more riding on lobsters than softwood

As long as Americans keep on driving to their favourite lobster joints, New Brunswick will survive this latest softwood lumber dispute with the United States.

Atlantic provinces successfully won exemptions from the anti-dumping duties the U.S. Commerce Department imposed on Canadian softwood lumber producers on Monday. Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island are being spared from both rounds of tariffs America has imposed since late April – marking Canada’s fifth softwood lumber-related tussle with the U.S. since the 1980s.

However, New Brunswick was singled out as the region’s only jurisdiction that the Americans believe is selling its softwood lumber into the United States for below market value.

While the softwood lumber sector contributes more than $1.45 billion to the provincial economy and employs more than 22,000 New Brunswick residents, according to industry group Forest NB, it is far from the province’s most valuable export.

Slightly more than $400 million worth of softwood lumber was exported from New Brunswick in 2015 – the most recent year for which data is available; but that is barely more than half the $741 million worth of crustaceans exported from the province and barely one third of the pulp and paper products that Americans purchased from the province.