With relations between the US and China said to be at their lowest ebb in 15 years, the challenges facing the next US president are laid bare by a research project that aims to shatter myths about the Asian giant.

The US and China have shown they can cooperate on issues such as climate change, but the relationship has taken a hit recently, notably over Beijing’s military expansion in the South China Sea. The rhetoric of election candidates such as Donald Trump over trade, and China’s economic slowdown, have added to the strain.

Whoever takes over from Barack Obama after the November election must contend with a backdrop of anxiety among politicians and analysts that China is destined to usurp the US as the world’s biggest economy and ultimately as its rival diplomatic and military superpower.

ChinaPower, a website launched on Tuesday by the influential Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) thinktank in Washington, sets out key developments in the country’s military, economic, technological, social and diplomatic rise and asks provocative questions that have exercised both Obama and his critics.

Among them: how does China’s first aircraft carrier stack up? The Liaoning was hailed as a symbol of its global power and naval ambitions when it launched five years ago. But the site provides context, noting that the Liaoning displaces roughly 60,000 tons – over 30,000 tons more than the Japanese helicopter destroyer Izumo – and is nearly 60 metres longer. It is also bigger than the Soviet-built Indian carrier Vikramaditya.

But the Liaoning’s size falls well below that of the US Nimitz-class carrier USS Ronald Reagan currently stationed with the US Seventh Fleet in Japan, the latter being over 45% heavier and 30 metres longer. The numbers show the Liaoning is neither a lightweight nor a supercarrier, the site says.

The China expert Andrew Erickson says: “Already with China’s so-called starter carrier, Liaoning, there is significant potential in the near future to take it overseas for some basic naval diplomacy … and this will already have tremendous symbolic and psychological effects.”



Tracking how much China spends on its military overall is made difficult by lack of transparency. According to available figures, China’s estimated military budget was $52bn in 2001 and $214bn in 2015. Although this number represents more than a 300% increase, it runs generally parallel with Chinese economic growth.

China’s military budget “pales in comparison” with that of US. While America maintains a global military presence, China has no bases on foreign soil and its defence interests are primarily focused within the Asia-Pacific region.

Phillip Saunders, director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs, tells the site China would be redefined if it began to expand its reach: “Power projection really distinguishes a superpower – you can go somewhere else and have your military do something. That’s an area where China is pretty far behind.”

Is China a developing or developed country? The answer is both at the same time. There have been increases in life expectancy, reductions in infant mortality and the near elimination of diseases such as malaria and measles. But it has also witnessed rises in cancer, heart disease and chronic illness as well as worsening environmental conditions, including air, soil and water pollution. Economic growth has come at a price of widening inequality.

Photograph: The World Bank Development Indicators

Internet penetration stands at nearly 50% nationwide. This might seem low, but, in light of China’s huge population, the current number of Chinese internet users exceeds those in Japan, India and the US combined. Denise Zheng of the CSIS is quoted as saying: “The Chinese government has very clearly stated that they believe that internet censorship is critical to their national security and national sovereignty.”

“There has been an explosion of interest in China globally, some of it because of challenges it poses and opportunities it presents,” said Bonnie Glaser, creator of the project website with the CSIS’s Ideas Lab. “There are many misrepresentations in the public arena that are perpetuated by talking heads and even our presidential candidates. There is so much inaccurate information.”

Glaser said she was constantly asked the question of whether China would become a superpower to rival the US. “It really can only be understood when you break it down to the components of power,” she explained. “Where is China narrowing the gap or does it even have the edge, and where it is lagging behind? In overall military capability, they really are lagging behind.”

Photograph: The World Bank Development Indicators

She hopes ChinaPower will be a useful resource for the White House and anyone else requiring a strong understanding of the facts to make policy. The Obama administration, she believes, has made use of overlapping interests in areas such as climate change but underestimated President Xi Jinping’s willingness to cause friction with multiple countries at the same time.

“There have been some positive advances and effective efforts, but I don’t think they’ve done a good job of rolling back China’s strategy in the South China Sea. It hasn’t failed yet, but it certainly hasn’t succeeded.”