Trae Young had a remarkable college season, there’s no denying that. From memory, I don’t think any other player has led NCAA men’s basketball in both points and assists in the same season. The last time a freshman has even led the NCAA in points alone was Jason Conley back in 2001-2002. Yet despite this historically great season, lots of draft pundits have him going as late as 8 and usually no higher than 6 in this draft. My primary basketball group chat in which I am active in seems to hold the same sentiments.

Now, before I get down to the nitty gritty of this article, I am a diehard Sooners fan, so I realise I might be accused of harbouring some unfair pro-Young bias. My intention is to keep this article as objective as possible and put my man-crush aside for the sake of journalistic integrity. Having said that, someone who has watched the majority of the Sooners games last year, I feel like I have a pretty good understanding of who Trae Young is as a player as well as his strengths and weaknesses.

I have had the notes of this article sitting on my phone for weeks now, but with the draft around the corner, it’s not surprising that ESPN posted a similar article just yesterday. Have a read of it when you get a chance, it raises some great points and lists some of the pros and cons about Trae as an NBA prospect.

One of the first arguments about Trae Young that I repeatedly hear brought up by critics is his drop in productivity in the latter half of last season as the Sooners went into a free fall. His full season numbers were still incredible, but across the second half of the season (from mid January to mid March), Young’s numbers dropped significantly.

First half (16 games) numbers: 30.1 ppg / 4.3 reb / 10 ast / 1.9 stl / 4.8 TO / 46 FG% / 39 3P% / 82 FT%

Second half (16 games) numbers: 24.7 ppg / 3.6 reb / 7.4 ast / 1.4 stl / 5.7 TO / 40 FG% / 31 3P% / 89 FT%

All his numbers, barring his free throw percentage, tanked spectacularly. Not promising for someone who is a projected lottery pick. However, did you know that Trae Young was double teamed on 43.7% of touches past half court in his freshman year at Oklahoma?

The closest a PG has ever been to being double teamed at that rate in college basketball history was Stephen Curry at 31.4%, and that was in his junior year, against a far weaker schedule. Young’s strength of schedule was 10.56, Curry’s was -3.33. No matter how great a player you are, that is an incredible burden for a freshman player to be faced with, and even more so when you’re a 6’2″ and 180 lbs.

His teammates were horrendous as well – I’ve lost count at the amount of times I found myself shouting at my laptop or TV screen for Christian James and Brady Manek to provide Young with a secondary option. When you don’t have a single teammate averaging more than 11.9 ppg and a single teammate that can create their own shot, that puts an enormous burden on you to make something happen – evidenced by his 37.1% usage rate.

Imagine how much more efficient Young will be in the NBA with competent teammates? Even on really bad teams such as the Magic and the Knicks, Young would have guys like Aaron Gordon, Kristaps Porzingis, Evan Fournier, Tim Hardaway Jnr and Michael Beasley as guys who are all very capable of creating their own shot. You can’t afford to double team Young at that insane rate, when he’ll have multiple guys on whatever team he lands on who will make you pay.

LeBron James, top 2 player in NBA history, is surrounded by sub-par teammates in Cleveland. Yet, have you noticed that he is rarely double teamed? That is because even sub-par (by NBA standards) players will take advantage of and punish you for that.

Due to his lack of athleticism, another common anti-Young argument I commonly hear is he’s going to be the next Jimmer Fredette – an elite college player whose skill set did not translate well to the NBA.

Player A vs. Player B in catch and shoot possessions (NCAA competition)

Player A

Overall: 115 possessions, 1.30 Points Per Possession Guarded: 73, 1.34

Unguarded: 42, 1.21

Player B

Overall: 58, 1.40

Guarded: 37, 1.05

Unguarded: 21, 2.00 (!!!)

Player A is Jimmer Fredette in his age 22 season playing against weak Mountain West competition. Player B is Trae Young in his age 19 season playing against significantly tougher Big 12 competition.

Not only is there a lot of room for improvement with age, but 2 points per possession on open catch and shoot opportunities is incredible.

According to Joseph Gill of Sa Squad Metrics, as of Feb 20, only 17 of his 271 three-pointers entering the night were tracked as open, catch-and-shoot looks. He made 13 of them. Put him on any NBA team with a solid offensive system with any ability to get him open looks, and you can already see the surplus value that he can bring to a team.

Skeptics might say that this is only the college 3 point line, and that it doesn’t directly correlate to the same level of success at the NBA level. Well, in 17-18, Young shot the most NBA 3-pointers by far and hit them at a 35 percent rate. Shooting is one of those skills that ages well, so you’d expect that with repetitions and experience that this number is only set to rise.

Despite his below average athleticism, Young is crafty enough to regularly get to the line. He actually averaged 8.6 free throw attempts per game, an elite number that puts him 6th in the entire NCAA for the 17-18 season. That inspires confidence that in games when his shot isn’t falling, Young should still be able to do damage on the scoreboard, similar to guys like Harden.

All this isn’t to say that Young doesn’t come with weaknesses. He shot at a below average 51% from inside of five feet and needs to show more craftiness at getting his shot off against tall, athletic defenders. He’s got very little experience playing off the ball, so despite his incredible efficiency at hitting open shots, he might struggle to move without the ball well enough to get those looks. Young turns the ball over far too much as well, it was obvious that in the second half of the season especially, he felt like he needed to make something happen on every possession. That led to a lot of forced passes and questionable decision making. Again, turnovers are one of those things that should improve with age and experience. Having better teammates to take some of the play making load off his shoulders should definitely help a lot as well.

Young hustles hard on defense and has quick hands, but he has short arms and below average size and athleticism, which severely limits his potential ceiling on defense. I do think he is a little underrated at this end though. People are quick to point to his game guarding Colin Sexton as proof that Young will struggle against NBA caliber athletes on defense. However, in 25 iso possessions against Sexton, Trae allowed 13 points (0.52 PPP) and his man turned the ball over 6 times. It’s no guarantee, but he could turn into a Curry-esque defender, who makes up for his lack of measurables and physical ability with a very high IQ and quick hands.

This draft class is stacked, with once in a generation physical talents like DeAndre Ayton, ridiculously athletic and intelligent bigs like Jaren Jackson Jr and Mo Bamba, ultra productive freshmen like Marvin Bagley III and a Euroleague MVP in Luka Doncic. All guys who have very valid reasons to be picked ahead of Trae Young.

Like most 19 year olds, he has his shortcomings as a player, but elite shooting and court vision is not something you encounter in the one prospect very often. If things break right for him, Young very well could wind up being the best player in this class. At worst, I certainly think that if any team gets him from pick 6 onwards, they are getting an absolute steal at their draft slot.