State budget analysts expect tax revenues to grow at a slower clip than in the decades before the Great Recession, threatening renewed budget squeezes just as the economy begins to gain momentum.

In testimony and reports submitted to state legislatures, many budget officials cited a host of unknowns, including a shaky global economy, political instability in Europe and Asia, and stagnant wage growth — as well as uncertainty created by the Trump administration’s proposals on taxes, trade and the federal government’s contributions to state budgets.

Most states begin their fiscal year on July 1, and legislators across the country are in the midst of preparing and debating new budgets. The average state anticipates income tax revenue growth of just 3.6 percent in fiscal 2017, down from 4 percent last year, while anticipated sales tax growth is projected at 3.1 percent, down from 4.2 percent, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Rockefeller Institute of Government.

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Those growth rates are well below yearly averages before the Great Recession. At the same time, budgets are rising, thanks to an aging population, rising healthcare costs and federal mandates.

“State tax revenue forecasts are weak for the current fiscal year 2017 and the forthcoming fiscal year 2018,” Rockefeller Institute budget expert Lucy Dadayan said. “Many states had already revised the forecasts downward and have raised concerns tied to the federal government’s decisions, which could have a large impact on state government budgets.”

States have seen growth in sales tax and income tax collections slow in recent years. A rebounding stock market goosed income tax collections in 2016, though that bull market has slowed, too. Seventeen of the 40 states that levy an income tax expect slower growth next year; Ohio and West Virginia budget experts anticipate revenue declines.

Some state analysts specifically cited the Trump administration’s policies as reason to forecast cautiously.

“The primary macroeconomic forecast risks are associated with policy actions that may be pursued by the new Trump administration — and uncertainty between what has been said and what may be done,” the economic analysis firm Kavet Rockler & Associates wrote in a revenue forecast commissioned by the state of Vermont. “While possible that some of the more extreme Trump proposals will be tempered by the legislative process and the realities of governing, there is a risk that erratic talk will turn into erratic policies and/or erratic policy implementation.”

But the analysis did find some cause for optimism, especially if tax reform and infrastructure spending spur near-term growth.

Other states cited Trump’s skepticism of trade deals such as NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which the administration backed out of during the early days of the new administration.

“[A]nti-trade rhetoric leads to polices that, in combination with the strong dollar, greatly weaken U.S. exports, damage the import supply chain, and undermine domestic growth,” Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s Office of Budget and Management wrote in a report laying out the GOP governor’s priorities.

Massachusetts Department of Revenue Commissioner Michael Heffernan said in December that the budget outlook “is perhaps even more uncertain than would normally be the case at this date.”

“The major sources of forecast uncertainty include the economic policies of the incoming Trump administration, political risks in Eurozone including changes due to Brexit, the impact of the strong U.S. dollar, the potential for Federal Reserve rate hikes and slower global economic growth.”

Still, other states cite internal factors such as an aging populace and weak commodity prices.

Oregon forecasters worry that their state’s aging population means income tax growth will taper off. Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar told the legislature that contraction in the oil and gas industry — as oil prices fell from historic highs — has acted as a drag on the economy there.

Dadayan, the Rockefeller Institute expert, said states are also worried about the amount of help they can expect from the federal government. Federal grants accounted for $625 billion in state funding in 2015, but the Trump administration’s budget blueprint suggests slashing many of those programs covering everything from homeland security to environmental regulations and education.

That budget blueprint is almost certain to be significantly changed in coming months, and even Republican members of Congress have voiced objections to the steep cuts. But it represents an administration that will prioritize sending power — and responsibility to shoulder financial burdens — back to the states.