Derryn Hinch is running for the Senate. More than two months out from the "only poll that counts", there are simply too many variables to nail down, making predictions perilous. In some cases, even the order of names on those how-to-vote cards has not been settled. The chances of lower-ticket success will depend on the overall standing of the party come polling day, and the profile of the local competition. In Victoria, for example, the expected nomination of "the Human Headline", Derryn Hinch, as an independent, is a new wildcard, with his high name recognition likely to garner backing. The important difference from past elections is that such candidates will now sink or swim on their own name, whereas in the past they might have shot past others in the count via complicated preference flows harvested from a multiplicity of other micros who had nominated for that very purpose. But these are not the only ones to be worried.

Independent senators Jacqui Lambie and Glenn Lazarus. So many parties named for their leaders is a risk. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen If you're at one to five on the ticket of the major parties, you are entitled to feel confident. But in South Australia, for example, even the fourth spot on Labor's ticket may be unattainable, depending on how strongly the Nick Xenophon team polls. Retaining two Greens in SA looks unlikely for the same reason. The Greens party decides its ticket order via a full membership vote (to be announced as early as Friday), so if the high-profile Sarah Hanson-Young is listed at No.1, she should be right. If not, her senatorial days are probably over. Nick Xenophon will easily hold on in SA and could give a leg-up to others on his team. With 12 senators to be elected per state, the percentage of the vote required (quota) is low – a little over half of that needed in an ordinary half-senate election at 7.7 per cent rather than 14.3. And because of optional preferential voting this time, some votes will exhaust before electing anyone. That in turn could mean that the 12th seat could go to the candidate with the most votes but who is still short of a quota.

In actual votes, the number required to secure a seat varies markedly. A seat can be won with less than 30,000 votes in the smallest state of Tasmania, whereas it would take more like a quarter of a million in the largest, NSW. In 2013, one of six spots on offer then required 625,164 votes. But even the lower quota of a double-D won't save some. In WA, the PUP senator Zhenya Wang's unremarkable time on the red leather looks over. The same is true of Victoria's Ricky Muir from the curiously named Motoring Enthusiasts Party, and Victoria's former DLP senator, John Madigan. There is widespread expectation that in Tasmania, Jacqui Lambie – another ex-PUP, has enough of a profile to hold on, and some think she may even jag a second quota for the eponymous Jacqui Lambie Network. Pigheadedness in the Apple Isle has seen the Liberals put Malcolm Turnbull's Tourism Minister Richard Colbeck at No.5 on that ticket, granting the safest No.1 spot to Eric Abetz. Genius.

Former rugby league champion and former PUP novice Glenn Lazarus also has a chance of securing one Queensland's 12 spots, given his name recognition. As mentioned, Nick Xenophon will easily hold on in SA and could give a leg-up to two more on his "team" – hence the Greens-Labor-Liberal problem. Submarine, anyone? And who knows with David Leyonhjelm? The NSW Liberal Democratic Party senator benefited from a confusing party name and the donkey-vote in 2013, but will struggle now – especially with party logos adjacent to names on the ballot this time. The Australia Institute's Ben Oquist, who in a previous life was the Greens' chief tactician and amateur psephologist, says the Coalition will end up with between 31 and 35 seats. That's two either side of its current holding of 33. Labor could improve from its dismal holding of 25 to as high as 28, Oquist predicts. And the Greens could lose one, dropping to nine.

Along with Xenophon in SA, Family First's former Liberal candidate Bob Day might also prevail, having secured a decent wedge in that state in 2013. In all, Turnbull's first term proper faces a similarly eclectic Senate, and probably a reduced lower house majority, raising the question of why he didn't go to an election before Christmas when he was far stronger. You can hear the indies asking already: "Where's the mandate in that?" Mark Kenny is Fairfax Media's chief political correspondent.