BEATING TRUMP & BEYOND

[3/3/20 Note: The polls below were published 12/11/19, and the race has changed drastically since then. Please consider the current dynamic when making your decision.]

Of course, besides positions and plans, “electability” — whatever that means — is still a very real consideration when picking a primary candidate. So, how do Bernie and Warren stack up?

After four victorious runs for Mayor of Burlington, Bernie flipped the state’s only U.S. House seat in 1990, which had been solid red for a staggering 55 of its 57 years in existence. Then in 2006, he flipped a +40 point Republican Senate seat that had never been won by a non-Republican in the 152 years since the party’s formation, and ended the longest single party winning streak in U.S. history with a +33 point victory. Compared to his 15 victories, Elizabeth Warren has only won two elections in her entire career, both for a Senate seat that has been Democrat-held for the vast majority of the last 100 years.

As for this election, there are several ways to analyze it, including volunteer numbers and rally turnout. Bernie has more volunteers, with over 1M, and he also boasts the largest rally of the primary, attracting an estimated 26K supporters inside and thousands more outside a park in Queens, NY. The campaign contribution and contributor data discussed in the “Campaign Finance” section of this piece also offers crucial insight into what kind of support these two have.

Such metrics are arguably stronger indicators of support than polling, as the sample size is the entire country and the question is open-ended: Which candidate do you like enough to give your time and hard-earned money to? These proactive signals of intent clearly suggest a more passionate level of support than just answering a multiple-choice question over the phone can.

Morning Consult

As for polling, there are several different angles of analysis within this tool as well. Favorability, for example, is a far more consequential stat than many would think. Since at least 1980, the general election candidate with the highest net favorability has won every time, regardless of party or ideology.

Bernie has both the highest favorability and net favorability in the primary pack, with 11 more percentage points for “favorable” than Warren, and a narrowly lower “unfavorable” rating, too. In fact, Bernie is the #1 most popular senator in America, while Warren, who is the 7th most unfavorable in the nation, ranks 29th, behind rival candidate Amy Klobuchar.

As for nationwide primary poll averages, Bernie has a slight edge over Warren, despite consistently getting less media coverage. Voters who prefer Bernie generally seem to be the most confident in their choice, with the most recent poll showing only 51% of them “might change” their mind to Warren’s 68%. Should supporters defect, Bernie and Warren are both listed as the top 2nd choice amongst each other’s base. Warren does far better than Bernie with Buttigieg fans, and Bernie does far better with Biden’s, which is about 3x larger of a group. Despite the false narrative to the contrary, Bernie’s support is less likely to vote Trump than any other major candidate’s — Warren’s base is over 2x more likely to vote Trump if she’s not the nominee.

Bernie is far and away more popular with the youth vote than any other candidate including Warren, with the most recent poll showing him at majority support amongst those under 35 with 53%, over 3x more than Warren’s 17%. In at least the previous three general elections, the Democratic nominee only won if they first got the most youth vote in the primary, losing if they did not.

Bernie’s coalition is also more diverse — he generally earns more nonwhite support than Warren despite a few exceptions. He consistently polls higher with working class voters than she does as well, a crucial component in battling Trump’s populism. This seems at least in part because of Bernie’s bottom-up approach of movement building to create change (“Not Me, Us”), which is opposite of Warren’s top-down meritocratic style (“I Have a Plan for That”).

Though primary polls usually only include those at least leaning Democrat, more than just Democrats are needed to win a general election. Independents outnumber members of both major parties, and though some suggest more “extreme” policies may alienate this group, Bernie’s +34 net approval amongst independents is far higher than Warren’s -7. Despite her Republican past, Warren seems far less willing to reach out to conservative voters, refusing to hold a town hall on Fox News. Bernie has no such qualms, and has regularly taken opportunities to speak to Republican voters.

Bernie’s net approval is 28 points higher than Warren’s when all voters are included. Reflective of this, Bernie, who has been consistently beating Trump in polls since 2015, has won all but two national polls since March, with an average of +8.4. Warren has beaten Trump in all but 11, averaging +7.2.

Data: RealClear Politics / Table: Weston Pagano

Of course, elections aren’t won by national voting, they’re won by winning states, and six states flipped from Obama to Trump in 2016. Using RealClear Politics’ poll aggregation we can see that Bernie is polling better against Trump than Warren in 5/6 of those states.

Though FiveThiryEight ranks Warren’s overall endorsement haul as holding higher value than Bernie’s, he has undoubtedly received the most high-profile and coveted progressive endorsements with 3/4 of “The Squad” in Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, and Rashida Tlaib. Warren secured Ayanna Pressley, the most “moderate” of the four, with whom she shares her home state of Massachusetts. Warren easily beats Bernie with endorsements from Obama alumni (though, shockingly, the list of over 200 names that her campaign released includes Ed Buck, the mega-donor currently on trial for allegedly sexually abusing, drugging, and killing multiple gay black men).

These elected allies will surely be vital should either candidate manage to replace Trump and look to pass the agenda they’re running on. Bernie and Warren’s legislative records also hold some indication of how successful they might be as president. Bernie, who holds the record for most roll call amendments passed through Republican-controlled Congresses, has passed 220 pieces of legislation in his 28 years in office for an annual average of 8.14. Warren has passed 45 pieces of legislation in her six years, averaging 7.5 a year.

The bolder and more inspiring these legislative plans and the leaders proposing them continue to be, the more of a mandate a people-powered progressive movement could deliver behind them, both at the ballot box and beyond. Choose wisely, and we may just get one in 2020.