Yesterday Goldman finally made it clear that Bill Dudley's marching orders are given: QE3 or no soup for you. Well, it didn't take long for the order from top to hit Goldman's FX desk, which has just issued this logical note: "Going short the USD on additional Fed easing." Odd, no easing has yet been announced, and according to so many none will come. But Goldman said so. So it must be.

From Thomas Stolper:

We have long argued that structural imbalances in the US will lead to more Dollar weakness. There are two main transmission channels: First, the current account deficit combined with the lack of investment inflows into the US and, second, more accommodative monetary policy by the Fed than elsewhere. We would expect these Dollar-negative forces to strengthen. The Fed yesterday shifted to a more dovish stance, including with a commitment to keep rates at exceptionally weak levels until at least mid-2013. The Fed also said it stands ready to increase its balance sheet further, leading our US economists to think QE3 now has a more than even chance of becoming reality. Moreover, the recent macro evidence of continued sluggish growth suggests capital inflows into the US could weaken further. This would likely increase the current account funding pressures, even if the latter start to improve slowly. All this suggests the Dollar will likely continue to weaken on a broad basis, and hence we would look to express this view against a broad basket of currencies. Our choice has been focused on commodity exporters, countries with strong external balances and strong cyclical stories across the major regions. Specifically, we suggest an equally-weighted basket of NZD, RUB, SEK, KRW, MYR and CLP. We would recommend going long this basket at an index level of 100, with a 1-day stop on a close below 98, for an initial target of 105.

There is, of course, the risk of the now traditional dodecatuple reverse psychology when dealing with Goldman. Although following the firm's disastrous Q2 performance, this could merely be one of those trades designed to lose the bank money, and thus, shockingly, make money for its clients. Either way, Jackson Hole is just over 2 weeks away, and the market will have to crash another 10% for QE3 to be demanded.