It was another low-scoring gameweek all round, with the Bookies’ Advantage squad clocking up 40 points. Goals from captain Alexandre Lacazette (12 points) and Romelu Lukaku (6), coupled with clean sheets from Stephen Ward (9) and Joe Hart (6), helped balance out a disastrous midfield performance that produced no goals, no assists, one red card, and a grand total of 2 points. We, however, continue to trust in the bookmakers’ knowledge as we look for an improved score in Gameweek 5, so read on as we analyse the clean sheet and anytime goalscorer odds on offer to help you with those all-important transfer, squad selection and captaincy decisions…

Defensive odds

Team Best clean sheet odds Implied chance of a clean sheet Tottenham 1.91 52% Man Utd 1.95 51% Liverpool 1.98 51% Man City 2.22 45% West Brom 2.7 37% Bournemouth 2.74 36% Newcastle 2.81 36% Southampton 2.88 35% Chelsea 3.1 32% Leicester 3.1 32% Crystal Palace 3.3 30% West Ham 3.5 29% Stoke 3.5 29% Huddersfield 3.6 28% Brighton 3.9 26% Arsenal 6.5 15% Everton 8 13% Watford 10 10% Burnley 10.5 10% Swansea 12 8%

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Tottenham head the bookies’ defensive rankings for Gameweek 5 with a 52% chance of keeping a clean sheet when they host Swansea in Saturday’s late kick off. Mauricio Pochettino’s men have registered 2 shutouts in their 4 Premier League outings thus far, whilst the Swans have blanked in 3 of their 4 games. With Paul Clement’s men also firing in the joint-lowest number of shots on target in the top flight (7), things look rosy for the Spurs defence this weekend. Ben Davies sits atop the FPL standings with 32 points after a goal, 2 assists and a pair of clean sheets, and this attacking threat sees us select him for our starting XI.

Manchester United and Liverpool (both 51%) share second place for the gameweek ahead of home fixtures against Everton and Burnley respectively. Jose Mourinho’s men have offered us the joint-best defence so far (along with Huddersfield), keeping 3 clean sheets and conceding just 2 goals. Sunday’s opponents Everton have only scored twice this term, blanking in their last 2, and, like the aforementioned Swans, have registered just 7 shots on target. Over at Anfield, Liverpool are yet to concede in the league this season (2 games played) and will be hoping for more home comforts after conceding 5 at The Etihad last weekend. They will, however, have to be at their defensive best given that opponents Burnley have found the net away to both Chelsea and Tottenham already this term. Providing value routes into both defences, Phil Jones and Alberto Moreno, who also registered an assist in the Champions League, start for our squad. (Sidenote: with Moreno and Joe Gomez starting midweek in Europe, Trent Alexander-Arnold is also a viable, and perhaps safer, pick at £4.5m).

Whilst Manchester City rank fourth (45%), we actually look to fifth-placed West Brom (37%) for our starting goalkeeper.. The £1m saved by opting for Ben Foster over Ederson proves vital further up the pitch, whilst we also feel that defensive form this term makes up for the 8% drop in shutout probability – the Baggies have kept 2 clean sheets this term compared to City’s 1. Furthermore, fixtures also play into the Baggies’ hands this weekend, with the visitors to The Hawthorns, West Ham, having blanked twice, whilst Watford, who host Pep Guardiola’s side, have only failed to score once this campaign (when they had 10 men for the majority of their Gameweek 3 match against Brighton).

On the bench, Rob Elliott (£4.0m – 36%) is once again our backup keeper when he hosts Stoke, with the Magpies keeping 2 clean sheets on the bounce, whilst early season favourite Ahmed Hegazy (£4.5m – 37%), who scored on the opening day against Bournemouth, forms part of a defensive double-up on West Brom assets. Jesus Gamez (£4.0m – 36%) bagged 8 points in Gameweek 4 and looks like the only ultra-budget defender who may feature this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Best anytime goalscorer odds Implied chance of scoring Harry Kane 1.56 64% Sergio Aguero 1.8 56% Gabriel Jesus 1.86 54% Romelu Lukaku 1.91 52% Alvaro Morata 2 50% Roberto Firmino 2 50% Mohamed Salah 2 50% Dele Alli 2.14 47% Marcus Rashford 2.4 42% Philippe Coutinho 2.75 36% Jamie Vardy 2.75 36% Eden Hazard 2.8 36% Jermain Defoe 2.8 36% Christian Benteke 2.85 35% Dwight Gayle 2.85 35% Henrikh Mkhitaryan 2.88 35% Joshua King 2.9 34% Salomon Rondon 3 33% Christian Eriksen 3.05 33% Jay Rodriguez 3.1 32% Alexandre Lacazette 3.15 32% Steve Mounie 3.15 32% Manolo Gabbiadini 3.2 31% Javier Hernandez 3.25 31% Kelechi Iheanacho 3.25 31% Kevin de Bruyne 3.25 31% Pedro 3.3 30% Alexis Sanchez 3.35 30% Saido Berahino 3.75 27% Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting 3.75 27% Tom Ince 4 25% Dusan Tadic 4.2 24% Andre Gray 4.2 24% Riyad Mahrez 4.25 24% Michail Antonio 4.33 23% Matt Ritchie 4.33 23% Anthony Knockaert 4.35 23% Theo Walcott 4.5 22% Chris Wood 4.5 22% Andre Ayew 4.5 22% Nathan Redmond 4.75 21% Xherdan Shaqiri 4.9 20% Tammy Abraham 5 20% Sam Vokes 5 20% Christian Atsu 5 20% Matt Phillips 5 20% de Andrade Richarlison 5.1 20% Wayne Rooney 5.5 18% Sandro Ramirez 5.5 18% Andros Townsend 5.6 18% Aaron Mooy 6 17% Jordan Ayew 6.5 15% Aaron Ramsey 6.5 15% Ryan Fraser 6.5 15% Kevin Mirallas 7.5 13% Pascal Gross 8 13% Robbie Brady 8.5 12% Etienne Capoue 9 11% Jason Puncheon 11 9% Tom Carroll 13 8%

With the month of August now over, the goals are flowing for Harry Kane. Braces against Malta, Everton and Dortmund have seen the Tottenham talisman notch 6 times in 4 games for club and country in September, and the bookies rank him as the top attacking prospect for Gameweek 5, with a 64% chance of scoring at home to Swansea. The Swans have kept 2 clean sheets this term, against the blunt attacks of Southampton and Crystal Palace, but a trip to White Hart Lane represents an entirely different proposition, seeing us strap the captain’s armband firmly around Harry’s bicep.

Brazilian duo Gabriel Jesus (52%) and Roberto Firmino (50%) are both in fine goalscoring form and complete our front three for the gameweek. Manchester City’s starlet has bagged 4 goals in his last 3 outings ahead of his trip to Watford this weekend, whilst a home encounter with Burnley awaits Firmino, who has found the net 3 times in his last 4 games.

The bookies also fancy the chances of big hitting trio Sergio Aguero, Romelu Lukaku and Alvaro Morata, but they all come in slightly too expensive to make our squad this weekend.

Mohamed Salah (50%) is our premier midfield pick this weekend and forms part of a double-up on the Liverpool attack ahead of their Anfield clash with Burnley. The “Egyptian Messi” has hit the ground running for the Reds, bagging 2 goals and 2 assists in 4 Premier League outings, whilst also notching twice in the Champions League. Opponents Burnley have impressed on their travels this term, winning at Chelsea and drawing at Tottenham, although they did concede in both games.

Dele Alli (47%) forms part of another attacking double-up as we pair him with North London teammate Harry Kane for the visit of Swansea. Having sat out of Wednesday’s Champions League meeting with Dortmund due to suspension, a fresh Alli, who has already found the net twice in the league, could profit against Paul Clement’s outfit.

Henrikh Mkhitaryan (35%) and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting (27%) complete our starting XI. United’s Armenian wizard has chalked up 5 assists in 4 starts for the Red Devils and will be expected to contribute further by gracing the scoreboard in the absence of the injured Paul Pogba. With opponents Everton in Europa League action in Italy on Thursday night, Mourinho’s men will have had an extra 2 days of rest, plus significantly less travel, when the sides meet on Sunday. Choupo-Moting, meanwhile, launched himself onto the fantasy radar by bagging twice against the previously unbreached Old Trafford defence last time out. An OOP prospect, and coming in at just £5.5m, the Cameroonian international travels to Newcastle this weekend. Tom Carroll (8%) takes the first spot on our substitutes bench, with his £4.5m valuation and security of starts crucial for our squad’s makeup.

The bookies also fancy the chances of a number of higher priced midfielders, such as Chelsea pair Eden Hazard and Pedro, along with Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez and Manchester City’s Kevin de Bruyne, but the quartet prove too expensive for selection, whilst we are forced to overlook Philippe Coutinho and Christian Eriksen after already maxing out our allocation of 3 players from Liverpool and Tottenham respectively.

Team of the Week

Good luck with your fantasy weekend!

May the odds be with you🙏

Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter.