This is the battleground.

I’m going to review and revise my estimates for NY based on polling, the debate, and additional color for NY. Let’s start off with the polls which all show HIllary Clinton ahead by double digits.

Poll Date Sample MoE Clinton Sanders Emerson 4/15 - 4/17 438 LV 4.6 55 40 CBS News/YouGov 4/13 - 4/15 1033 LV 4.4 53 43 NBC 4 NY/WSJ/Marist 4/10 - 4/13 591 LV 4.0 57 40 Siena 4/6 - 4/11 538 LV 4.5 52 42 Quinnipiac 4/6 - 4/11 860 LV 3.3 53 40 NBC/WSJ/Marist 4/6 - 4/10 557 LV 4.2 55 41 PPP (D) 4/7 - 4/10 663 LV 3.8 51 40 Monmouth 4/8 - 4/10 302 LV 5.6 51 39 NY1/Baruch 4/5 - 4/10 632 LV 4.2 50 37 Emerson 4/6 - 4/7 325 LV 5.4 56 38 FOX News 4/4 - 4/7 801 LV 3.5 53 37 Most polls find 7-10% of Likely Voters are undecided, and 15-20% are not firm in their decision. Since I’m doing a district by district analysis, I’m interested in regional information, and there is some scattered across various polls. The Baruch/NY1 poll seemed to confirm my view that the spread in the city is narrower than most analysts think:

Clinton beats Sanders in every region of the state but they are closest in New York City.

Baruch didn’t release cross-tabs, but other pollsters did and there is significant variation. For instance, Quinnipiac and several other pollsters find the spread is widest in NYC, the opposite of Baruch, which appears to be an outlier. The polls agree in general that Upstate New York is where Bernie is strongest.

UPSTATE CLINTON SANDERS QUINNIPIAC 50% 46% NBC/WSJ/MARIST 48% 49% PPP 47% 44% SIENA 46% 48% Emerson 50% 43% Average 48% 46% Bernie looks weakest in the suburbs north and east of New York City. SUBURBS CLINTON SANDERS QUINNIPIAC 55% 40% NBC/WSJ/MARIST 61% 36% PPP 51% 41% SIENA 57% 38% EMERSON 56% 36% Average 56% 38% The polls show Bernie is pretty weak in NYC as well. I disagree with that, looking at enthusiasm, anecdotal information and the large turnout at the rallies. We’ve seen tens of thousands of people show up for Bernie rallies, the total turnout in 2008’s Demcoratic primaries was 892,000 in the five boroughs. NYC CLINTON SANDERS QUINNIPIAC 53% 37% NBC/WSJ/MARIST 58% 39% PPP 55% 38% SIENA 54% 41% emerson 58% 36% average 56% 38% The Quinnipiac, NBC and Siena line up with my view that Hillary is strongest in the suburbs and Bernie is strongest upstate. NBC provided cross-tabs for their April 6-10 poll, they conducted another poll between Apr 10-13 and found similar results:

Geographically, Clinton enjoys a double-digit lead over Sanders in New York City and the suburbs, while the two are running even in Upstate New York -- essentially unchanged from the earlier NBC/WSJ/Marist poll. And when it comes to religion, Clinton leads among likely New York Democratic primary voters who are Protestant (62 percent to 35 percent), Catholic (61 percent to 36 percent) and Jewish (65 percent to 32 percent).

That last number is interesting, Bernie does weakest among Jewish voters in NY (many are orthodox).

A number of polls have likely voter assumptions which may be under-counting support for Sanders. For instance, in Siena’s sample of likely voters, only 15% were 18-34 years old while 50% were over 55 years of age. In Emerson, 22% were 18-34 and 43% were over 55. In 2008, the exit polls had this breakdown by age:

AGE 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ 2008 15% 22% 33% 30%

Siena’s Likely Voter sample would under-count 18-34 year olds even if they voted in the numbers they did in 2008.

My guess is that turnout among 18-29 year olds will be higher than usual in this primary. The question is by how much. The answer may lie in the late surge of registrations among those under 30. 120,311 new Democrats were registered in March (h/t joeknapp), and 69% of them are under 30. We can also get some sense of under 30 turnout from Illinois, which shares a similar mix of urban/rural voters and where both 2008 candidates (Obama/Hillary) could claim a home-state advantage.

AGE 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+ 2008 15% 19% 22% 29% 15% 2016 17% 16% 15% 31% 22%

As an aside, New York has more college students, almost 5% of the population as opposed to less than 4% in Illinois. In Illinois, each candidate has won 78 delegates, Bernie won 48.72% of the vote, Hillary 50.46%. That was an open primary, the polls leading up to Illinois had Hillary up 52-44. You can see that turnout in IL (based on exit polls) seems to have gone up among the youngest and the oldest voters in Illinois.

And here’s what I think

Bernie will outperform the polls in NY, very similar to what happened in Illinois. I don’t think he can make up all the ground, but I think he’ll come in between 46-48%.

As usual it depends on turnout, so keep those calls going. Here’s my district by district prediction including delegates and popular vote totals. Higher voter turnout among younger voters will be key, and I think he will outperform on delegates thanks to strength upstate (something that worked for Hillary in 2008).

My estimate: Bernie gets almost 47% of the state-wide vote and 122 delegates. That gives Hillary a margin of victory of 6% for the popular vote and 3 delegates more than Bernie. In terms of regions, here’s how I see it play out:

Hillary Bernie Upstate 46.70% 53.30% suburbs 57.51% 42.49% nyc 55.33% 44.66%

Yes this means he outperforms the polls by 5-7% in each region. And no, I don’t believe Kristin Gillibrand breaking into tears will matter much.

Here are my calculations broken down by Congressional District.

Rep Delegates Region Hillary '08 Bernie '16 Bernie Del Bernie votes Total Turnout CD1 Lee Zeldin-R 6 Suburb 65% 50% 3 20119 42450 CD2 Peter King-R 6 Suburb 67% 46% 3 20694 47460 CD3 Steve Israel-D 7 Suburb 70% 39% 3 17545 47460 CD4 Kathleen Rice-D 6 Suburb 60% 43% 3 20864 51189 CD5 Gregory Meeks-D 6 NYC 62% 48% 3 31898 70109 CD6 Grace Meng-D 6 NYC 70% 56% 3 31558 59452 CD7 Nydia Velazquez-D 7 NYC 64% 56% 4 37528 70701 CD8 Hakeem Jeffries-D 6 NYC 56% 36% 2 32509 95270 CD9 Yvette Clarke-D 6 NYC 65% 36% 2 26680 78186 CD10 Jerrold Nadler-D 6 NYC 56% 56% 3 54488 102652 CD11 Dan Donovan-R 5 NYC 65% 40% 2 16606 43797 CD12 CarolynMaloney-D 6 NYC 60% 42% 3 34333 86242 CD13 Charlie Rangel-D 6 NYC 53% 45% 3 51182 119994 CD14 Joseph Crowley-D 7 NYC 62% 57% 4 37492 69394 CD15 Jose Serrano-D 6 NYC 68% 49% 3 32243 69421 CD16 Eliot Engel-D 6 NYC 55% 47% 3 29942 67211 CD17 Nita Lowey-D 6 Suburb 55% 44% 3 29835 71536 CD18 Sean Maloney-D 6 Suburb 55% 47% 3 31869 71536 CD19 Chris Gibson-R 5 Upstate 60% 58% 3 55818 101531 CD20 Paul Tonko-D 7 Upstate 64% 43% 3 27462 67379 CD21 Elise Stefanik-R 6 Upstate 68% 66% 4 28874 46155 CD22 Richard Hanna-R 5 Upstate 70% 64% 3 28723 47347 CD23 Tom Reed-R 5 Upstate 60% 55% 3 27448 52650 CD24 John Katko-R 6 Upstate 68% 62% 4 27147 46193 CD25 Louise Slaughter-D 6 Upstate 63% 57% 3 26893 49776 CD26 Brian Higgins-D 7 Upstate 60% 53% 4 31710 63121 CD27 Chris Collins-R 6 Upstate 60% 54% 3 32308 63121 PLEO 30 14 At-Large 54 25 Delegates 247 46.84% 122 843767 1801333

That’s it folks. Go vote tomorrow if you’re in NY. Get out the Vote if you aren’t!