National Mood Soars as Direction of Federal Government Hits Highest Levels since 2001

TRUDEAUMANIA 2.0?

[Ottawa – December 11, 2015] A year end check up on the national reception to the new Liberal government is producing nothing short of a dramatic reversal of years of torpor and division about the federal government. Confidence in the country has shot up almost 20 points to 61 per cent positive since the last read when the Harper government was sitting. More significantly, confidence in the direction of the federal government is almost as high as national direction at 58 per cent and this is the highest score for federal direction since 2001. For a neophyte Prime Minister who was depicted as ‘not ready’ and languished in third place entering the recent campaign, this is a strong public endorsement.

The good news for Justin Trudeau carries over to his approval rating which is also soaring at 64 per cent. There are some quibbles and quarrels over the directional measures; Alberta and Saskatchewan are much less ebullient, while Conservatives are underwhelmed. Overall, however, these are giddy numbers for the new government and can be seen as broad relief at the new style and focus of this incipient government.

While most an anecdotal curiosity, vote intention shows the Liberals close to what would be a majority even in a pure proportional voting system. Their 46 points is over twice the support they had in the spring. For the NDP, the news is as bad as it is good for the Liberals. Their support has plummeted to the mid-teens and they appear to be going backward in a hurry. After a brief but real flirtation with forming government, the NDP has retreated to pre-2011 levels and they are in danger of being squeezed out of the new political order. Their leader still scores respectably on approval, although he is down slightly from the heady days when he seemed destined for highest office.

The response to the broad framing of the new government’s agenda is quite instructive and puts to rest the idea that fiscal rectitude was a more pressing priority than a more active government. This, of course, was the critical misjudgement of the NDP in the last election and if the new government is looking for vindication of its return to boldness and activism it need look no further than to public response to the Speech from the Throne.

Noting that the throne speech signalled what might well have been the boldest and most ambitious federal agenda ever, the response has been very clear. Not only did the levels of attention to the throne speech eclipse all previous records, it also achieved very strong endorsement from the public. It might be interesting to compare the public response of the new throne speech to the last one delivered by a Liberal government in Ottawa. Paul Martin’s throne speech of 2004 received much less attention and much more tepid approval. The clear majority approved of this throne speech in what may have been another record positive for such a speech.

It is notable that the modal response was moderate – not strong – approval and the public have yet to see the bill for this boldness but it has the earmarks of causing possible sticker shock at some future date. This will become doubly true if the economy continues to sputter and the public outlook on the economy is decisively gloomy. We may be seeing a democratic boom but most see the economy in a state of bust.

Vote intention by region and demographics:

Direction of country/government:

Tracking approval ratings:

Methodology:

This study was conducted using EKOS’ unique, hybrid online/telephone research panel, Probit. Our panel offers exhaustive coverage of the Canadian population (i.e., Internet, phone, cell phone), random recruitment (in other words, participants are recruited randomly, they do not opt themselves into our panel), and equal probability sampling. All respondents to our panel are recruited by telephone using random digit dialling and are confirmed by live interviewers. Unlike opt-in online panels, Probit supports margin of error estimates. We believe this to be the only probability-based online panel in Canada.

The field dates for this survey are December 7-10, 2015. In total, a random sample of 1,956 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey (1,811 online, 145 by phone). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here for the full report: Full Report (December 11, 2015)

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