Your Bitcoin Cost Basis Won’t Matter In Five Years

Since Bitcoin (BTC) began to fall just thirteen months ago, investors have done their best to time the bottom. Some have been taking the safe, smart route, purchasing BTC on a normal basis to dollar-cost average in, while others have been a tad more irrational, purchasing cryptocurrencies whenever it suits their emotions.

Yet, one analyst claims that by this point, it won’t matter whether your Bitcoin cost basis is $1,800, $3,000, or any other figure in this range in three to five years. The analyst in question is Josh Rager, an industry personality and technical analyst that has garnered tens of thousands of followers on Twitter.

In response to a quip from The Crypto Dog about Bitcoin’s bottom, Rager explained that as BTC has already retraced 85% from its top, “what’s another 5% or 7% compared” to how far this market has dropped already? In other words, calling a Bitcoin bottom now isn’t nonsensical, even if this market falls a tad further (percent-wise) from its most recent all-time high.

Dog doesn't need me to back him up But I think what he means is that we've already retraced from $20k to $3,100 After you retrace 85% – what's another 5% to 7% drop compared to how low the market has already dropped $1800 or $3000 $BTC won't matter in 3x to 5x years — Josh Rager 📈 (@Josh_Rager) February 22, 2019

Thus, Rager concluded that whether your cost basis is $1,800, $3,000, or wherever else you think the 2018/2019 bear market bottomed won’t matter in three to five years. The analyst’s optimism is likely in reference to the theories that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will swell exponentially in the years to come. Just the other day, IBM’s Jesse Lund claimed that while BTC might only reach $5,000 by this year’s end, $1 million could be possible in the long run, especially due to that figure’s round value and institutional interest. Others have been similarly as bullish, albeit a tad shy of a seven-figure prediction.

Zhu Fa, the co-founder of Poolin (currently has 11% of Bitcoin’s hashrate), told his WeChat followers that there’s a chance that BTC’s next all-time high will be around the 5 million Chinese yuan range. This equates to $740,000 U.S. He added that when the asset pulls back, it will find a bottom in the 500,000 yuan region, 90% lower than the forecasted all-time high.

Rager’s recent quip on Twitter comes after he took to Twitter to famously remark that 2019 may be the last time that the “general population,” meaning common Joes and Jills (non-affluent), might be able to afford one whole BTC. Per previous reports from this outlet, the TokenBacon and Blackwave advisor explained that as BTC could move parabolically higher in the coming years, by 2021, few might be able to obtain a notable foothold in the cryptocurrency space.

He added that while global household incomes could increase across the board (due to inflation, better economic conditions, etc.), thus making BTC affordable again, more likely than not, the cryptocurrency will be “out of reach for most.”

Case For Further Bitcoin Drop

While Rager is making the case that it won’t matter when long-term “HODLers” accumulate in the coming year, some analysts have still done their best to forecast lower lows in the ongoing market cycle. So what’s the case for a move lower, and what are analysts calling for?

Financial Survivalism, an insurance agent turned full-time trader, claimed that per the “Hyperwave” analysis technique, he determined that there’s a likelihood that BTC could revisit $1,165, which is where it peaked during the rally prior to 2017’s. Murad Mahmudov, a partner at Adaptive Capital, noted that fundamentally, many preeminent altcoins, including XRP, ETH, and EOS, remain overvalued, and thus need to move lower before BTC can head higher.

In another storm of comments, Mahmudov noted that the waning presence of Bitcoin-related comments on Twitter should also be a cause for concern. The trader explained that tweets regarding the cryptocurrency have reached 2014 levels, lower than any point in 2016, indicating that very few people care about decentralized, sovereign, uninflatable currency, along with the thesis that the 2017’s parabolic run-up had little effect on this community’s size.

Title Image Courtesy of Thought Catalog on Unsplash