The coronavirus is likely to exert a much smaller human and economic toll than current appearances suggest, according to a Morningstar analysis that runs contrary to some of the gloomier forecasts that have helped pound the stock market. While the near-term damage is likely to be more substantial, the longer-run impact to global GDP is likely to be just 0.2%, the financial services firm widely followed for its fund ratings said in a lengthy report. "Overall, we see a weighted average hit of 1.5% to 2020 global GDP and 0.2% to long-run global GDP," said the report authored by biotech strategist Karen Anderson and energy analyst Preston Caldwell. "We forecast a muted long-term impact because damage to productive capacity will be small, plus economic confidence should quickly return once the virus subsides."

Other forecasters have not been as optimistic. Pimco, the asset management giant, said this week that it expects a "technical recession" in the first part of the year, TS Lombard predicts a "major recession" globally, and Bank of America Global Research knocked back its global growth forecast again to 2.2%. But Morningstar said the economic impact shouldn't be as bad because the disease's impact will be less pronounced. Based on studies of previous pandemics — a designation the COVID-19 strain has not yet received — Morningstar estimated that the ultimate mortality rate will be about 0.5%. While that's well above the level of the flu, it's considerably below the current 3.5% rate that shows up in the latest data tracking from Johns Hopkins University.

Once the data gets more complete as additional cases are diagnosed through testing, that current number is expected to come down significantly. The analysts say they see the coronavirus impact "to resemble a severe but manageable flu."

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