For observers who last watched the US women’s national team win the Women’s World Cup in 2015, the ongoing Concacaf qualification tournament for next year’s event in France probably feels similar. The Americans finished the group stage on Wednesday having outscored their opponents 18-0 and, although they haven’t clinched a spot in the 2019 Women’s World Cup yet, they sit very close.

The reigning World Cup champions are just picking up where they left off, right? Not quite. Since winning the World Cup, it’s hardly been a smooth road for the Americans and, in many ways, they’ve come out the other side looking like a much different and more potent team than before.

First, a refresher: the summer after the 2015 World Cup, the US were knocked out of the Rio Olympics in the quarter-finals by Sweden, their worst-ever finish in a major tournament. From there, coach Jill Ellis sought a hard reset of the program. She squeezed out veterans in favor of up-and-coming youth and started tinkering furiously with new formations. Ellis’s long-term goal ever since that humiliating loss in Brazil has been to make the Americans more tactically versatile and more unpredictable.

Change, of course, is inevitable, even for reigning World Cup champions. But Ellis’s experiments caused a normally cohesive US team to look unraveled and it led to demoralizing losses to England, France and Australia in the span of five months.

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That was enough for a small group of veteran players to raise concerns directly to the US Soccer Federation last year about the direction of the team under Ellis, sources have confirmed to the Guardian. The federation, seeing the dropped results as mere growing pains in a time of transition under a World Cup-winning coach, was keen to stay the course.

Now, Ellis is still at the helm, the experiments are mostly over, and the US have been winning ever since. Of their last 24 matches since their loss to Australia in July 2017, they’ve won 21 and have drawn the other three. This year, they won both the SheBelieves Cup and the Tournament of Nations, two invitational tournaments that are glorified friendlies but feature the top teams in the world.

It appears that this World Cup qualification tournament, which moves into the semi-final round on Sunday, is a moment ripe for all the new reinforcements and experimentation to pay off.

From the first qualification game against Mexico, which the US won 6-0, to the next game against Panama, which they won 5-0, Ellis made nine changes and fielded what was essentially a reserve team that still probably could compete with the best in the world. That squad depth was something Ellis deliberately built, even during the team’s struggles last year.

Many of these players who have played well during qualification weren’t on the US team back in 2015. A trio of them are central midfielders: Rose Lavelle with her creativity, Samantha Mewis with her vision, Lindsey Horan with her versatility. Then there’s Crystal Dunn, who has excelled all over the field, sometimes within the same game, or 20-year-old Mallory Pugh, whose relentless attacking style cutting in from the wings allowed her to break into the team as a teenager.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Mallory Pugh is one of a number of talented young players for the US. Photograph: Rob Kinnan/USA Today Sports

There are even more new players, while some veterans have taken on new roles: Julie Ertz, a center-back who played every minute of the 2015 World Cup, is now a defensive midfielder who helps shield the backline and, at times, pushes up into attack, where she can use her potent aerial abilities. Carli Lloyd, the attacking midfielder who took over the 2015 final once she had free rein, has lately played as a No9, where she focuses on what she does best: scoring goals.

The changes in personnel have been meant to complement new tactics.

The Americans haven’t abandoned the direct style of play that remains incredibly effective with speedy striker Alex Morgan up top. But Ellis, knowing teams can follow Sweden’s blueprint from the Olympics, has emphasized players moving the ball at a higher tempo with short passes and combination play. There is no obvious second-choice behind the sensational Morgan, who has 21 goals in her last 22 games – and that’s a concern that should be addressed before the World Cup – but if the Americans can unlock defenses in different ways, that may allow them to rely on her less.

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Ellis scrapped a dedicated 3-5-2 after back-to-back losses to England and France last year, but she has found ways to add numbers to the midfield by turning to fullbacks who are primarily attackers and giving them freedom to bomb forward. A lack of natural fullback depth is a concern, but Ellis hasn’t been shy about converting new players to the role. When the Americans don’t have possession, they use their numbers to press high and swarm to win it back.

Due to the US team’s experimentation phase being followed by a heavy rash of injuries for the better part of this year, that aggressive possession style hasn’t always come off. Even in the USA’s 6-0 rout of Mexico to start qualifying, they would have scored twice as much if only they had been crisper in the first half.

But when the Americans have clicked and made it work, they’ve looked better and more capable of imposing their will than the team that won the World Cup three years ago. There is too much individual talent and depth in the squad and, as long as Ellis can put players in their best positions and give them time to gel, the Americans have a good chance of defending their title.

For some observers, the Americans may not have dominated this Concacaf tournament enough, despite out-scoring teams 18-0. The competition the US has run circles around includes countries that get no support from their federation. Players from Trinidad & Tobago, who the US beat 7-0, were left begging on social media for lodging and gear and the team had no manager a month before the tournament was due to start. Most nations in Concacaf haven’t invested in their women’s programs like the US has.

But the Americans, with memories of a shock loss to Mexico eight years ago that nearly kept them out of the 2011 Women’s World Cup, have every right to be pleased with their performances so far. This qualification tournament should merely be the start of an upward trajectory that, if all goes according to plan, will leave the Americans peaking next summer in France.

For that to happen, first the Americans must qualify. On Sunday, they can officially do exactly that: one more win and they are in. Then, they will have the chance to prove they are just as good as the team that won the 2015 World Cup, if not better.