Revised as of 09/29/20, through Week 3.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 30,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DAVE and DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 30,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Carolina DAVE is reduced by -9.0% in Weeks 4-6, -6.0% in Week 7, and -3.0% in Week 8 to reflect the Christian McCaffrey injury.

Denver DAVE is reduced by -9.0% in Week 4 and then gradually returns to normal until it is at the listed value for Week 9 to reflect the Drew Lock injury.

New Orleans DAVE is reduced by -9.0% in Weeks 4-6, -6.0% in Week 7, and -3.0% in Week 8 to reflect the Michael Thomas injury.

San Francisco DAVE is reduced by -6.0% in Week 4 and -3.0% in Week 5 to reflect the Jimmy Garoppolo injury.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

NFC East

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE DAL 1-2 5.4% 8.3 2.6% 6.5% 14.7% 33.2% 0.5% 1.4% 2.2% 57.0% 4.1% 61.0% -0.9% PHI 0-2-1 -3.1% 6.5 0.5% 1.5% 4.1% 13.9% 0.5% 1.2% 2.0% 19.9% 3.7% 23.6% -0.0% WAS 1-2 -18.0% 6.0 0.3% 0.9% 2.8% 9.9% 0.4% 1.0% 1.8% 13.8% 3.3% 17.1% -4.5% NYG 0-3 -14.4% 5.3 0.1% 0.3% 1.4% 7.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 9.3% 1.4% 10.7% -8.7%

NFC North

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE GB 3-0 4.2% 9.9 16.3% 17.1% 13.8% 6.0% 7.8% 8.0% 7.5% 53.1% 23.3% 76.4% 9.0% CHI 3-0 -3.1% 9.3 10.2% 11.5% 9.8% 3.8% 9.5% 9.5% 9.6% 35.2% 28.6% 63.9% 7.8% DET 1-2 -1.2% 7.6 1.6% 2.8% 2.7% 1.3% 5.3% 7.6% 8.6% 8.4% 21.4% 29.9% 7.8% MIN 0-3 -4.1% 6.0 0.3% 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 1.7% 3.0% 4.1% 3.2% 8.7% 11.9% -5.2%

NFC South

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE TB 2-1 12.5% 9.5 11.3% 13.5% 14.0% 7.1% 7.4% 7.6% 7.5% 45.9% 22.6% 68.4% 12.2% NO 1-2 18.9% 9.1 7.4% 11.1% 15.9% 7.8% 6.7% 7.4% 7.7% 42.3% 21.8% 64.1% -12.7% ATL 0-3 2.0% 6.5 0.3% 1.3% 3.3% 3.7% 0.8% 2.1% 3.7% 8.6% 6.7% 15.2% -10.8% CAR 1-2 -15.1% 5.9 0.2% 0.6% 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% 2.0% 3.0% 3.3% 5.8% 9.2% 3.1%

NFC West

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE SEA 3-0 11.8% 10.6 25.0% 13.4% 5.3% 1.0% 17.3% 11.6% 8.3% 44.7% 37.2% 81.9% 5.5% LAR 2-1 8.6% 9.3 11.6% 7.3% 3.6% 0.9% 17.5% 13.4% 10.9% 23.3% 41.7% 65.0% -7.3% SF 2-1 9.1% 9.0 7.1% 5.8% 2.8% 1.0% 13.1% 12.4% 11.0% 16.7% 36.5% 53.2% 18.1% ARI 2-1 0.6% 8.6 5.3% 5.6% 3.4% 1.1% 10.5% 11.5% 11.2% 15.3% 33.1% 48.5% -13.2%

AFC East

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE BUF 3-0 2.0% 9.6 9.2% 11.4% 15.3% 20.1% 5.1% 5.9% 6.0% 56.0% 16.9% 72.9% 4.4% NE 2-1 2.5% 8.8 4.7% 7.3% 10.3% 14.6% 6.9% 8.0% 8.4% 36.9% 23.3% 60.2% 8.8% MIA 1-2 -14.4% 6.6 0.2% 0.6% 1.6% 2.7% 2.5% 4.2% 5.4% 5.1% 12.0% 17.1% 7.1% NYJ 0-3 -19.4% 5.1 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.9% 2.1% 3.4% 5.5% -7.2%

AFC North

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE PIT 3-0 13.9% 10.6 17.4% 15.5% 10.9% 6.6% 15.8% 10.1% 7.3% 50.5% 33.1% 83.6% 6.3% BAL 2-1 16.0% 9.9 9.1% 12.5% 10.2% 6.9% 15.6% 11.7% 8.9% 38.7% 36.2% 74.9% -12.8% CLE 2-1 -5.6% 8.0 1.6% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 8.2% 9.4% 9.8% 9.3% 27.5% 36.8% 9.6% CIN 0-2-1 -13.2% 5.9 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 1.4% 2.6% 3.7% 1.6% 7.7% 9.3% 2.3%

AFC South

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE TEN 3-0 2.3% 9.6 8.0% 10.6% 13.3% 12.5% 8.5% 8.3% 8.2% 44.4% 25.0% 69.4% 5.2% IND 2-1 13.0% 9.5 6.9% 10.3% 13.3% 12.7% 8.5% 8.6% 7.9% 43.3% 25.0% 68.3% 13.6% JAX 1-2 -9.3% 6.6 0.3% 0.9% 1.7% 3.1% 2.1% 3.6% 5.1% 6.0% 10.8% 16.8% -13.3% HOU 0-3 -3.7% 6.3 0.1% 0.5% 2.0% 3.8% 1.0% 2.6% 4.1% 6.4% 7.7% 14.1% -7.3%

AFC West

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE KC 3-0 19.6% 11.6 38.9% 22.1% 12.9% 7.4% 6.2% 4.3% 2.8% 81.4% 13.3% 94.6% 6.2% LV 2-1 -6.1% 8.1 2.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 8.2% 9.0% 9.4% 11.7% 26.6% 38.3% -10.3% LAC 1-2 -1.5% 7.6 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 9.0% 9.8% 9.6% 6.2% 28.4% 34.5% -8.0% DEN 0-3 -18.8% 4.8 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 1.6% 0.8% 2.9% 3.7% -4.8%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

Reaching the Conference Championship Game

Winning the Conference Championship Game

Winning the Super Bowl

Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win 16-0 KC 49.2% 29.8% 16.8% 0.7% SEA 31.2% 17.2% 8.5% 0.2% PIT 30.5% 16.0% 8.4% 0.3% NO 25.2% 14.9% 8.4% 0.0% BAL 25.2% 13.3% 7.3% 0.0% TB 24.1% 12.7% 6.5% 0.0% IND 21.0% 10.5% 5.6% 0.0% GB 24.4% 11.8% 5.3% 0.1% LAR 19.4% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% BUF 18.7% 8.2% 3.8% 0.1% SF 14.9% 7.4% 3.6% 0.0% TEN 17.2% 7.4% 3.4% 0.1% DAL 15.8% 7.2% 3.3% 0.0% NE 13.7% 5.9% 2.7% 0.0% CHI 14.8% 6.3% 2.5% 0.0% ARI 10.5% 4.6% 2.1% 0.0% LAC 5.4% 2.3% 1.0% 0.0% DET 5.5% 2.3% 0.9% 0.0% LV 6.0% 2.2% 0.9% 0.0% PHI 4.6% 1.9% 0.8% 0.0% CLE 5.4% 1.9% 0.8% 0.0% ATL 3.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% MIN 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% HOU 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% JAX 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% MIA 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% WAS 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% NYG 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% CIN 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% CAR 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick DEN 17.6% 56.1% NYG 13.4% 49.1% NYJ 12.7% 48.7% WAS 8.4% 38.9% CAR 7.8% 38.6% CIN 7.5% 36.4% MIN 6.1% 31.3% PHI 4.1% 25.5% MIA 4.0% 25.0% HOU 3.8% 24.1% JAX 3.6% 23.8% ATL 3.9% 23.6% LAC 1.8% 14.3% DET 1.5% 12.4% CLE 0.9% 9.5% DAL 0.8% 8.3% LV 0.6% 7.5% ARI 0.3% 4.5% NE 0.2% 3.7% NO 0.2% 3.2% CHI 0.1% 2.4% SF 0.1% 2.3% TB 0.1% 2.0% IND 0.1% 1.7% LAR 0.1% 1.6% TEN 0.1% 1.3% GB 0.1% 1.1% BUF 0.0% 1.1% BAL 0.0% 1.1% PIT 0.0% 0.5% SEA 0.0% 0.5% KC 0.0% 0.1%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.