Can you say C-O-A-L-I-T-I-O-N?

A new ‘new normal’ appears to be taking hold of the federal political landscape heading into an election year.

With unexpected events having led to a renewed focus on security, coupled with some economic tumult, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have surged back into contention and, for the moment, are in a virtual deadlock with the Liberals.

In little more than a month, Harper has gone from facing the real possibility of falling from PM to leader of the third party to being within reach now of forming a fourth government. Not only has he wiped out virtually all of Justin Trudeau’s double-digit lead, he also has managed to raise his own approval numbers.

Does this suggest Harper will win in the fall (or perhaps earlier)? Not yet. In fact, it may be the case that a divided electorate doesn’t see any conventional political solution to being caught between a government of the right — which increasingly is out of touch with the values and attitudes of Canadians — and a fragmented centre-left.

The structural factors of a progressive wave, a dark outlook for a shrinking and pessimistic middle class and a deep mistrust of democracy and public institutions as expressed by incumbent governance style — none of these factors have gone away. In fact, they clearly continue to fester.

It’s also reasonable to expect that the effects of the heightened security concerns that have bolstered Harper over the past six weeks could fade just as quickly, leaving more challenging structural forces once again forming a significant barrier to another Harper victory. The steep decline in oil prices also undermines the Conservatives’ plans to turn swollen surpluses into targeted tax-and-spend goodies in an election year.

Moreover, there is evidence that a public weary of the current government is moving towards a new solution. The spectre of a coalition government that was used effectively to strengthen Harper’s fortunes in 2011 no longer seems to worry Canadians nearly as much. By a very large margin, the public now favours a Justin-Trudeau-led coalition over most other outcomes. This is markedly different from the divided views of 2011.

The parties will all insist that they are running to win and that planning for a coalition is a bad idea — but for a majority of Canadian voters, this may be emerging as the best solution. Coalitions may be terra incognita for Canadian federal politics but they are widely accepted in Europe and elsewhere. The diverse values and interests of an increasingly pluralistic citizenry aren’t fitting readily into the older party systems — and a coalition may well be the preferred destination for the public.

Demographic Patterns Revealing

Harper appears to be re-assembling the same constituency that gave the Conservatives their majority government in 2011. Older voters are gradually returning to their traditional comfort zone, and Harper has restored his strong lead with men. He is also regaining ground with new Canadians, a group that had been steadily leaking to the Liberals since Trudeau emerged as party leader.

The Liberals, in contrast, continue to underperform in polls with men. This weakness is not new, but has grown over the past two months since the shooting events on Parliament Hill. If the Liberals are to break out, they must find a way to strengthen their standing with men.

Regionally, the Liberals are by far and away the most “pan-Canadian” party, as they hold at least some support in nearly every region of the country. They are also highly competitive in Manitoba, which was clearly not the case in 2011. Support for the Conservatives remains heavily centered in Alberta and Saskatchewan, although they have shown new life in Ontario (outside of Toronto), which will be key to any election victory in 2015. The NDP continues to do well in Quebec.

Approval Numbers Uncover Hidden Strengths for Trudeau/Mulcair

Despite a relative deadlock in voter intention, there is good news to be found for Trudeau in his approval figures. He leads in terms of approval and, interestingly, he does extremely well with undecided voters.

Mulcair, meanwhile, is best able to transcend partisan lines and he does fairly well outside of NDP supporters, which may uniquely position him to hold the balance of power in the event of a coalition government.

Harper remains in a distant third place; however, he has enjoyed a noticeable uptick in approval over the past few months.

Likelihood of Voting Raises Possibility of Liberal-NDP Coalition

In our latest poll, in addition to our conventional ballot question (“Which party would you vote for?”), we asked respondents to rate the likelihood that they would vote for each of the three main parties on a 7-point scale, where 1 indicates a 0 per cent chance of voting for the party in question, 7 indicates a 100 per cent chance, and the midpoint, 4, indicates a 50/50 chance. The results are revealing and somewhat different from what we see with the conventional ballot question.

The Liberals appear to have a slight – but statiscally significant – edge in this area, as Canadians of all political stripes express somewhat more openness to voting Liberal. Conservative supporters have taken more of a “my way or the highway” stance and are widely closed off to voting either Liberal or NDP. Conversely, other party supporters have widely ruled out voting Conservative.

Liberal and NDP supporters, meanwhile, have expressed a tepid willingness to consider each other, suggesting that a Liberal-NDP coalition may be feasible should the Conservatives pull off a minority win in 2015. Indeed, unlike in 2011, it appears now that Liberals and NDP supporters are equally likely to say they are certain to be voting. The rise of greater commitment to vote in the centre-left is also coupled with a sharp rise in support for a Liberal-led coalition. These two changed forces suggest a formidable obstacle to a fourth Harper Government.

Canadians prefer Liberal-NDP coalition to Conservative government

Finally, after all this speculation as to the feasibility of a Liberal-NDP coalition, we asked Canadians the simple question of whether they would prefer a Conservative minority government or a Liberal-led coalition with the NDP. Canadians express a striking preference for the latter, with 54 per cent (60 per cent when we exclude invalid responses) choosing coalition. This represents a distinct movement away from the days of Michael Ignatieff, when Canadians were evenly split on this issue.

Conclusions

Overall, this is a pretty good poll for Harper and the Conservatives, particularly when you consider the depths he was plumbing prior to October 22. He and his party are in a much better position than they have been in two years. Harper is within striking distance of the lead for the first time in over a year and his personal approval rating, while still a distant third, is showing signs of slow improvement.

In other ways, it’s also a decent poll for Trudeau. Indeed, the Liberal party still leads and we have not seen them behind in a poll in more than a year.

Finally, while the overall result as a deadlock is very significant, it is based on rather modest changes. The Conservatives have not surged and the Liberals and NDP have not plummeted. Rather, we have seen a modest, downward shift for the Liberals and NDP, accompanied by a modest uptick for the Conservatives.

So while the Conservatives are doing well, they may not do well enough. Harper has gained momentum from security related events that all occurred in a very short period of time — and these figures may be as good as it gets. The Conservatives also must deal with fatigue and economic forces which had put the Conservatives in such a poor position throughout most of 2014. Furthermore, the rise in committed voters within the centre-left and the rise in support for a Trudeau-led coalition both suggest more formidable obstacles to a fourth successive government.

In any case, we are still 10 months out from an election (discounting, of course, the rumoured early election call). It’s extremely early — all of this could change.

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Methodology:

This study was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are December 4-12, 2014. In total, a random sample of 3,276 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

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[1] Frank Graves, “Rethinking the Public Interest: Evolving Trends in Values and Attitudes”, Presentation to the #Can2020 Conference, Ottawa ON, October 2, 2014. Available online at: http://goo.gl/i2b0PR