eldentyrell

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DonatorLegendaryActivity: 980Merit: 1001felonious vagrancy, personified Re: Predictious.com | The Premier Bitcoin Prediction Market | Trade & Win Bitcoins! February 14, 2014, 03:33:12 PM

Last edit: February 14, 2014, 04:12:29 PM by eldentyrell #145





Quote from: Predictious on January 05, 2014, 08:31:09 PM 1) We are considering a slight change in the fee structure to make it more interesting for extremely low or high probabilities (along the lines of what you are suggesting).



Please bump this up your priority list. The strange fee structure risks distorting the markets. Why not something simple like X% of each transaction and Y% of each redemption? You'll probably be able to charge higher fees by skewing towards lower X and higher Y; from the customer's perspective fees on winning shares are easy to account for, simply treat it as a reduced reward. Really the per-transaction fees should be just barely high enough to prevent silly HFT-churn-trading; setting them too high discourages arbitrage.





Quote from: IveBeenBit on February 09, 2014, 06:22:32 PM Do you have any bets on Mt Gox insolvency? I took a quick glance but didn't see anything.



I think you will be instantly famous (and very successful) if you get into this market. It will probably cause you some headaches in the short term, but this is the sort of opportunity for you guys that makes or breaks a company. Demand for the ability to hedge against exchange failures is positively oozing out of the internet's pores. I suppose ASIC miner deliveries in late 2013 were another one. It's kinda late at this point but Bitcoinica funds recovery is another possibility (more of a tail event right now but still).



Plus, in addition to getting stinking rich, you will be doing a service to the bitcoin community by creating a public, market-determined metric of (perceived) exchange solvency. Every media outlet covering this story would love to be able to quote the market-determined odds of exchange X going under -- especially the financial press, which has become accustomed to quoting CDS spreads in solvency stories. You can't buy that sort of advertising no matter how much you pay. Wow, this is great, I've wanted a site like this for soooo long. Can't believe I didn't find out about it until now.Please bump this up your priority list. The strange fee structure risks distorting the markets. Why not something simple like? You'll probably be able to charge higher fees by skewing towards lower X and higher Y; from the customer's perspective fees on winning shares are easy to account for, simply treat it as a reduced reward. Really the per-transaction fees should be just barely high enough to prevent silly HFT-churn-trading; setting them too high discourages arbitrage.I think you will be instantly famous (and very successful) if you get into this market. It will probably cause you some headaches in the short term, but this is the sort of opportunity for you guys that makes or breaks a company. Demand for the ability to hedge against exchange failures is positivelyout of the internet's pores. I suppose ASIC miner deliveries in late 2013 were another one. It's kinda late at this point but Bitcoinica funds recovery is another possibility (more of a tail event right now but still).Plus, in addition to getting stinking rich, you will be doing a service to the bitcoin community by creating a public, market-determined metric of (perceived) exchange solvency. Every media outlet covering this story would love to be able to quote the market-determined odds of exchange X going under -- especially the financial press, which has become accustomed to quoting CDS spreads in solvency stories. You can't buy that sort of advertising no matter how much you pay. The printing press heralded the end of the Dark Ages and made the Enlightenment possible, but it took another three centuries before any country managed to put freedom of the press beyond the reach of legislators. So it may take a while before cryptocurrencies are free of the AML-NSA-KYC surveillance plague .

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Sr. MemberActivity: 288Merit: 250 Re: Predictious.com | The Premier Bitcoin Prediction Market | Trade & Win Bitcoins! February 18, 2014, 10:11:30 PM #146 Quote from: eldentyrell on February 14, 2014, 03:33:12 PM Quote from: IveBeenBit on February 09, 2014, 06:22:32 PM Do you have any bets on Mt Gox insolvency? I took a quick glance but didn't see anything.



I think you will be instantly famous (and very successful) if you get into this market. It will probably cause you some headaches in the short term, but this is the sort of opportunity for you guys that makes or breaks a company. Demand for the ability to hedge against exchange failures is positively oozing out of the internet's pores. I suppose ASIC miner deliveries in late 2013 were another one. It's kinda late at this point but Bitcoinica funds recovery is another possibility (more of a tail event right now but still).



Plus, in addition to getting stinking rich, you will be doing a service to the bitcoin community by creating a public, market-determined metric of (perceived) exchange solvency. Every media outlet covering this story would love to be able to quote the market-determined odds of exchange X going under -- especially the financial press, which has become accustomed to quoting CDS spreads in solvency stories. You can't buy that sort of advertising no matter how much you pay.

I think you will be instantly famous (and very successful) if you get into this market. It will probably cause you some headaches in the short term, but this is the sort of opportunity for you guys that makes or breaks a company. Demand for the ability to hedge against exchange failures is positivelyout of the internet's pores. I suppose ASIC miner deliveries in late 2013 were another one. It's kinda late at this point but Bitcoinica funds recovery is another possibility (more of a tail event right now but still).Plus, in addition to getting stinking rich, you will be doing a service to the bitcoin community by creating a public, market-determined metric of (perceived) exchange solvency. Every media outlet covering this story would love to be able to quote the market-determined odds of exchange X going under -- especially the financial press, which has become accustomed to quoting CDS spreads in solvency stories. You can't buy that sort of advertising no matter how much you pay.



Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added this new contract:

Mt.Gox Insolvency

Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added this new contract:

IvanIlyich



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NewbieActivity: 2Merit: 0 Re: Predictious.com | The Premier Bitcoin Prediction Market | Trade & Win Bitcoins! February 20, 2014, 07:36:14 AM #148



It could be very helpful if you put bets for mtgox hitting specific price points at or before specific points in time (either way). Say, once or twice a week.

Basically, if you look at mtgox prices on the exchange, and you compare them with what people are offering for goxed coins on the "mtgox <-> btc bid/ask" thread here, there has been a huge overlap. It would seem that lots of people should be willing to do trades, but either ignorance or high transaction costs (e.g. fear of getting scammed or being unsure about escrow) is preventing them.



Now, market manipulation might be a problem, conceivably, except that your order books are so thin that that kind of seems like the tail wagging the dog.



Bets for mtgox insolvency is helpful, but I think bets on hitting certain price points would generate a lot of interest. You could publicize it widely: tell a reporter at Wired and I bet they would put up a story right away. I think people would trade, and a lot of people would be happy.



thanks







Quote from: Predictious on February 18, 2014, 10:11:30 PM Quote from: eldentyrell on February 14, 2014, 03:33:12 PM Quote from: IveBeenBit on February 09, 2014, 06:22:32 PM Do you have any bets on Mt Gox insolvency? I took a quick glance but didn't see anything.



I think you will be instantly famous (and very successful) if you get into this market. It will probably cause you some headaches in the short term, but this is the sort of opportunity for you guys that makes or breaks a company. Demand for the ability to hedge against exchange failures is positively oozing out of the internet's pores. I suppose ASIC miner deliveries in late 2013 were another one. It's kinda late at this point but Bitcoinica funds recovery is another possibility (more of a tail event right now but still).



Plus, in addition to getting stinking rich, you will be doing a service to the bitcoin community by creating a public, market-determined metric of (perceived) exchange solvency. Every media outlet covering this story would love to be able to quote the market-determined odds of exchange X going under -- especially the financial press, which has become accustomed to quoting CDS spreads in solvency stories. You can't buy that sort of advertising no matter how much you pay.

I think you will be instantly famous (and very successful) if you get into this market. It will probably cause you some headaches in the short term, but this is the sort of opportunity for you guys that makes or breaks a company. Demand for the ability to hedge against exchange failures is positivelyout of the internet's pores. I suppose ASIC miner deliveries in late 2013 were another one. It's kinda late at this point but Bitcoinica funds recovery is another possibility (more of a tail event right now but still).Plus, in addition to getting stinking rich, you will be doing a service to the bitcoin community by creating a public, market-determined metric of (perceived) exchange solvency. Every media outlet covering this story would love to be able to quote the market-determined odds of exchange X going under -- especially the financial press, which has become accustomed to quoting CDS spreads in solvency stories. You can't buy that sort of advertising no matter how much you pay.



Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added this new contract:

Mt.Gox Insolvency



Thanks for the suggestion, we've now added this new contract: 1) As everybody knows, mtgox is having serious liquidity problems. This post could very easily become obsolete in the next few hours, but...It could be very helpful if you put bets for mtgox hitting specific price points at or before specific points in time (either way). Say, once or twice a week.Basically, if you look at mtgox prices on the exchange, and you compare them with what people are offering for goxed coins on the "mtgox btc bid/ask" thread here, there has been a huge overlap. It would seem that lots of people should be willing to do trades, but either ignorance or high transaction costs (e.g. fear of getting scammed or being unsure about escrow) is preventing them.Now, market manipulation might be a problem, conceivably, except that your order books are so thin that that kind of seems like the tail wagging the dog.Bets for mtgox insolvency is helpful, but I think bets on hitting certain price points would generate a lot of interest. You could publicize it widely: tell a reporter at Wired and I bet they would put up a story right away. I think people would trade, and a lot of people would be happy.thanks

eldentyrell

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DonatorLegendaryActivity: 980Merit: 1001felonious vagrancy, personified Re: Predictious.com | The Premier Bitcoin Prediction Market | Trade & Win Bitcoins! February 20, 2014, 07:56:52 AM #150 Quote from: IvanIlyich on February 20, 2014, 07:36:14 AM It could be very helpful if you put bets for mtgox hitting specific price points at or before specific points in time (either way). Say, once or twice a week.



I can understand why predictious might not want to create zillions of contracts with every possible combination of date/time/price it clutters up the list of contracts and it looks bad for them to have markets with empty order books.



One thing they might consider is offering "meta markets" consisting of a contract term with variables ("mtgox price to fall below $X before date Y") and display only those variable combinations for which there are orders on the order book. As long as the API presents this in a sensible way people will step up with market-maker bots across the variable combinations, for a spread sorta like how the banks keep the order books for the options market full by using Black-Scholes and subtracting out their fee (which manifests itself as the nontrivial bid/ask spread you always see on options markets). That way when an infrequent end user shows up and wants a specific kind of hedge there's always some depth there waiting for them. I can understand why predictious might not want to create zillions of contracts with every possible combination of date/time/price it clutters up the list of contracts and it looks bad for them to have markets with empty order books.One thing they might consider is offering "meta markets" consisting of a contract term with variables ("mtgox price to fall below $X before date Y") and display only those variable combinations for which there are orders on the order book. As long as the API presents this in a sensible way people will step up with market-maker bots across the variable combinations, for a spread sorta like how the banks keep the order books for the options market full by using Black-Scholes and subtracting out their fee (which manifests itself as the nontrivial bid/ask spread you always see on options markets). That way when an infrequent end user shows up and wants a specific kind of hedge there's always some depth there waiting for them. The printing press heralded the end of the Dark Ages and made the Enlightenment possible, but it took another three centuries before any country managed to put freedom of the press beyond the reach of legislators. So it may take a while before cryptocurrencies are free of the AML-NSA-KYC surveillance plague .