Arctic sea ice nosediving

By Matt Owens March 4, 2013

This summer could be lights out for the Arctic sea ice.

Above is the ice thickness, as estimated by the U.S. Navy for March 3rd of 2011, 2012, and 2013 (The dates posted on the maps correspond to the date the analysis was performed). Click for larger view.

This map shows several troubling trends which point to a possible ice-free summer Arctic Ocean as soon as this summer, including unusually high heat retention in shallow coastal shelves where large stores of methane gas wait to be released if temperatures climb too high.

The areas colored orange correspond to 1 to 2 meters of ice thickness (about 3.3 to 6.6 feet) and they will mostly melt this spring and summer. The white areas correspond to 2 or more meters (about 6.6 feet and up) of thickness, and they will likely also see large losses.

The angle of the Earth to the sun is now shifting, bringing sunlight back on up north - soon to start heating and melting the Arctic, as it does every year (aka summer for the northern hemisphere). But this time is different.

As the map shows, substantial thinning around the edges of the Arctic Ocean basin indicates significant heat retention in those waters. Plus, the thickest part of the ice, 3 to 5 meters, is just barely clinging to existence along the northern coast of Greenland. These navy maps only go back to 2011, but older observational data prove that sea ice thickness used to be much, much thicker. In fact, the sea ice has been thinning for decades now, but since 2007, the decline has gone from first to fifth gear. What this map shows is the last gasp of Arctic sea ice, at least for the summers.

Below: sea ice concentration (how much ice area there is as a percent of ocean area) 1982 vs. 2012, for September 15th. Images from Cryosphere Today. Click for larger view:







Over the coming months, ocean currents and wind will push the decaying ice around, further accelerating the melting, and leading to more solar heat absorption by the ocean waters. If any ice remains by September, it will probably end up pushed up along the Greenland coast again. In the winter, the ocean will ice over again, but only a thin layer will form, meaning the ice cover will melt even earlier in the season next year.

By all accounts, the Arctic is in big trouble. The ramifications are still being worked out, and are not entirely clear.

But really, "not entirely clear" is just a euphemism. And, "big trouble" is really an understatement. If I were the type to panic, I would be panicking now. Those movies, where the gates to other universes (violent, hostile universes of course - what other kind are there?), or the gates to hell, etc. have been somehow left open ...those movies take on a new meaning in the context of this problem.

I do not encourage you to panic however, and remember, panic rarely accomplishes anything except for helping to get yourself physically away from something hostile. That won't work here, unless you have a spaceship and an open invite from another planet.

What this means practically speaking, is much more insidious than a sudden global apocalypse. Apocalyptic or insidious - either way, the issue calls for attention.