by Jonathan Todd

There’s much to admire among the world’s new generation of leaders. The election of Justin Trudeau (now aged 45) as prime minister in 2015 on a pro-immigration, pro-investment platform made him Uncut’s overseas inspiration of 2015. Since then Jacinda Ardern (aged 37), Emmanuel Macron (aged 39), and of course Leo Varadkar (aged 38) have been elected to the leaderships of New Zealand, France and Ireland, giving hope that centrism might not be quite dead.

Over the past 48 hours, the last member of this group may have had the most significant impact on the future of the UK. By insisting on de facto all-Ireland participation in the single market and customs union, he has shown that the voices shaping what comes next for Britain, need not be only Farage’s and Rees Mogg’s.

“Brexit and the election of President Trump were inextricably linked,” recently observed Raheem Kassam, the Breitbart London editor and former chief of staff to Nigel Farage, leaving the prospects of centrism bleaker in the UK and the US.

In the past week, Trump has retweeted three inflammatory and unverified anti-Muslim videos shared by the deputy leader of Britain First, secured wide-ranging legislation on taxation that Bernie Sanders decries as the “looting” of the American treasury, and witnessed his ex-national security adviser Michael Flynn become his administration’s most senior member to be charged in the investigation into Russian attempts to influence the 2016 US presidential election.

In the age of Trump, Jonathan Freedland wrote in the Guardian, it’s time to ditch the special relationship. Bold moves are easier executed from positions of strength. Which is hardly what UK, teetering on the brink of exit from our most important alliance, now enjoys.

The prime minister’s main focus is to resist every EU demand, before capitulating, having realised – contrary to her earlier insistence – that any deal is better than no deal. This pattern emerges across each of the divorce issues: the EU budget, the Irish border, EU citizens rights. This strategy will deliver Brexit. At any cost. Leaving an isolated UK looking for new friends. Which, particularly after the past week, only the foolish would think are to be found in Trump.

Britain’s red lines on Brexit, claims Michel Barnier, the European Commission’s chief negotiator, have the UK headed towards Canada. Not in the sense of mixing that economically helpful cocktail of being pro-immigration and pro-investment. Not geographically – our proximity to the continent, inevitably, makes us more dependent upon trade with our neighbours than with north America. But in the sense of arrangements equivalent to the EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

The EU-Canada FTA removes tariffs on goods and opens up public procurement, telecoms and maritime transport. It does little or nothing, however, in markets crucial to the UK such as aviation, electricity, audio-visual, and financial services. If the UK wants to move to something closer to the single market in these areas, there will be an expectation that the UK contribute more to the EU budget, adopt EU laws, and have a greater acceptance of free movement – in other words, fold on the issues that Barnier sees as pushing the UK toward Canada.

We have not yet exited the EU but this process is being associated with such economically damaging phenomena as:

Brexodus – Net migration to the UK fell by more than 100,000 in the year following the referendum, the largest annual decrease recorded. Which explains the NFU bemoaning food rotting in fields.

Shrinkflation – Food items are getting more expensive and smaller. It is reported that this, “is widely considered to be a direct result of the post-Brexit economy. Manufacturers are facing higher costs for energy, ingredients, transport and packaging.”

Bickering between businesspeople and ministers – A leading entrepreneur has said that Liam Fox is “utterly unfit” to be in office, after the International Trade Secretary accused British business of not putting in enough effort into exporting.

British universities experiencing a fall in their share of EU funding. Any reduction in economic growth produced by Brexit will lower tax collection and put further pressure on other public services – many of which, not least the armed forces, police and the NHS, already seem worryingly stretched.

No UK cities following Glasgow and Liverpool in enjoying the regeneration boost associated with being the European Capital of Culture.

These events may explain why over half of Britons, according to a new Survation poll, “support holding a referendum asking the public if they will accept or reject the deal”. The call for a second referendum has also been made by Goldman Sachs – one of many businesses likely to divert investment away from a UK outside the EU.

It was ‘the will of the people’ that set the UK on the road to Canada and there is a logic to ‘the will of the people’ – aka another referendum – setting the UK on a different trajectory.

Jeremy Corbyn has been quicker to pose as a threat to the likes of Goldman Sachs than to join them in seeking a second referendum. Beyond the obligations of EU membership, the latitude that PM Corbyn would hold to threaten businesses would be enhanced. Such a ‘socialism in one country’ strategy would end painfully.

Hopefully, Corbyn appreciates this. If he envisages keeping the UK in the EU via a second referendum, he needs to act quickly. David Allen Green explains why the window on that scenario will close sooner than we might think.

“The engagement,” reports the Financial Times of Harry and Meghan, “has already helped to distract Britain from the divisions of the Brexit vote.” Corbyn advised viewing Russia Today to avoid the last Royal wedding. Now, questions are being asked not only about Russian influence on the US presidential election but the UK-EU referendum.

Urgently, and well in advance of the temporary palliative of next Royal wedding, Corbyn should reflect on who our friends really are. Allusion (which is French for hint): They are not as distant as Canada or Russia, and much more in sympathy with social democratic values than Trump. L’Europe d’abord.

Jonathan Todd is Deputy Editor of Labour Uncut

Tags: Brexit, Customs Union, Jacinda Ardern, Jonathan Todd, Justin Trudeau, Leo Varadkar, Macron, Single market