Scottish ministers say they will call a second independence referendum if their concerns about single market membership are brushed aside

Nicola Sturgeon will call for a fundamental shift in the devolution settlement when she sets out the Scottish government’s proposals this week for keeping Scotland in the European single market.

In what appears to be a return to her harder line on Scottish independence, when she described a second referendum as “highly likely” immediately after the UK’s vote to leave the EU, Sturgeon will warn Theresa May that if her proposals are “brushed aside”, she will push for another vote on independence.

The SNP’s foreign affairs spokesperson, Alex Salmond, underlined this position in an interview on Sunday Politics Scotland, when he said that the options set out in the paper were: “One: keep the UK within the single marketplace; secondly, if that’s not possible, keep Scotland within the single marketplace; and if that doesn’t happen and the UK is unwilling to listen to Scotland’s representations, then it’s very likely there will be an independence referendum within the next two years.”



At the heart of the paper, which will be published on Tuesday, is a Norway-style framework to maintain Scotland’s place within the single market if the rest of the UK opts for a hard Brexit.

In proposals that amount to a significant bundle of new powers for Holyrood, Scotland’s first minister is expected to call for the devolution of regulatory powers over goods, trade and business, which the Scottish government hopes would allow the country to remain in the single market.

Arguing that the repatriation of powers from Brussels to the UK must not result in a “Westminster power grab”, Sturgeon will press for devolution of immigration powers and employment rights in order to maintain protections for EU nationals and Scottish workers that are likely to be lost in the event of Brexit.

Although May told Sturgeon she was “willing to listen to options” after their initial meeting following her appointment as prime minister, the chancellor, Philip Hammond, appeared to rule out the prospect of special concessions for Scotland on trade or immigration in the Brexit deal when he visited Edinburgh at the beginning of December.



The proposals, based on the advice of the standing council of experts set up by the first minister after June’s referendum, will form the basis of the Scottish government’s negotiations at the joint ministerial committee meetings for the devolved nations with Westminster over the coming months.

Writing in the Sunday Herald, Sturgeon described the paper’s publication as an important moment for Scotland, “but … also a hugely important moment for those living elsewhere on these islands, as we seek to exert a positive influence on the Brexit process for the whole of the UK”.

She added: “That’s why maintaining Scotland’s current position in the European single market will be at the heart of the proposals we publish this week. However, if that is not possible, then we will also be outlining ways in which this could be achieved for Scotland even if the rest of the UK leaves. Doing so will involve the devolution of new powers to Edinburgh.”

She added: “But regardless of what happens with the single market, there are further powers being repatriated from Brussels which should be devolved to the Scottish parliament. It would add insult to injury if being dragged out of the EU were to be accompanied by a Westminster power grab.”

Sturgeon acknowledges that implementing the Scottish government’s propsals will require “cooperation, imagination and flexibility”, but that she expects the UK government to fully engage with them “in line with its clear previous commitments”.

However, she goes on to caution May: “If our interests cannot be protected in this process, or are indeed brushed aside by the UK government, then the people of Scotland should have the option of considering independence. That is why we are consulting on legislation that would allow another independence referendum to take place if necessary.”

Salmond told the BBC show he was confident that Sturgeon could win a second independence referendum. The former first minister said: “What it depends on is the arguments, and in a situation where the UK government is determined to sever Scotland’s European links, then I think that would bring many people who were previously sceptical about independence on to the yes side.”

Scotland’s Brexit minister, Michael Russell, said the UK government had “an overriding obligation” to take the proposals seriously after 62% of the Scottish electorate voted to remain in the EU, adding that this was “the first serious attempt by any government in the UK to address the challenges thrown up by the Brexit vote”.

The Scottish secretary, David Mundell, said that the UK government would consider the proposals carefully, if the plans were “credible and backed up by evidence”. “I also hope they commit to working closely with us – a team UK approach – to get the best possible deal. That is how we will get the right deal for the whole of the UK – and the right deal for the UK will be the right deal for Scotland”.