History repeats itself. We all know this. It’s why our teachers beat it into us year after year in school, and why stock brokers and sport gamblers study it religiously. Now, I am neither a historian, nor a (successful) gambler, nor do I work on Wall Street, but I can tell you that Louisville’s football program is no stranger to trends.

While there are an innumerable amount of factors and variables that go into football teams winning games, history remains one of our greatest tools to predict who will win on any given Satur day. Over the last 30 years UofL’s win totals have followed a similar path each decade.

THE TREND

Step 1: Late Decade Collapse

To start the cycle we as UofL fans, unfortunately, must endure a late decade collapse. Think of it as a reset, if that helps the pain at all. Like most things, the cycle begins at the bottom.

The ‘80s

Heading into the ‘90s, the Cards were wrapping up what had been an abysmal decade that did not include a single season with more than 5 wins. In ’85 Howard Schnellenberger took over a Bob Weber-led team that had bottomed out with a 2-9 season in the previous year. “Schnelly” would spend the next few years building the program into something the program hadn’t seen since Lee Corso was patrolling the sidelines: A Winner.

The ‘90s

After leading the program to heights the UofL football program had never seen before, Schnellenberger stepped down due to personal issues with then-president of the university, Dr. Donald Swain. He stated in a 2012 interview that the issues with Swain revolved around the athletic department’s planned move for the football team to give up its conference independence and join the start-up Conference USA.

Schnellenberger spoke on the matter saying, “I wasn’t going to coach in a conference where I didn’t have a chance to compete for the national championship.”

Eastern Michigan’s Ron Cooper took over the Cards in 1995, and in just 3 seasons led the Cardinals face-first into the ground with a 1-10 record in ‘97.

The ‘00s

(Warning: this is where things get repetitive) Once again, after leading the program to heights it had never seen before, with the 2006 Cardinals capping off a wildly successful 12-1 campaign with an Orange Bowl victory, UofL’s head coach decided to leave. This time it was Bobby Petrino leaving UofL for the Atlanta Falcons.

Steve Kragthorpe would take over a star-studded roster and quickly drive the program off the cliff in less than 3 years, ultimately getting himself fired after a sour 4-8 2009 season.

The ‘10s

In less than two seasons after Bobby Petrino’s Cardinals take Clemson to the wire in an instant classic down in Death Valley, and Lamar Jackson becomes the program’s first Heisman Trophy Winner, Petrino seemingly stops running the program and gets fired before the 2018 team can complete a shocking 2-10 season.

STEP 2: First Signs of Hope

The ‘80s

After finishing a disappointing, but encouraging, 3-win season in 1987, Schnellenberger and his squad take an enormous leap to 8 wins in ’88. This season proves as a sign of good things to come.

The ‘90s

John L. Smith guides Louisville as they bounce back from their worst season in over 30 years to win 7 games and earn a berth in the 1998 Motor City Bowl.

The ‘00s

Charlie Strong takes over a limping Cardinal program after 2009 and caps off an improbable bowl-bid season with a win over Southern Mississippi in the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl.

The ‘10s

TBD

Step 3: Big Leap to Start the Decade

The ‘90s

After an encouraging 1987 season, Schnellenberger’s team took a small step back to win 6 games in ’89. But with some serious momentum building after two fairly successful seasons, the Cardinals surge to win 10 games in 1990 and kick off the New Year with a 34-7 crushing of the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Fiesta Bowl.

The ‘00s

With back-to-back 7-win seasons in ’98 and ‘99, John L. Smith had Louisville clicking on all cylinders as they rolled into the new millennium. Smith’s Cardinals would reel off back-to-back Conference USA Championships while amassing a combined 20-5 record over 2000 and 2001.

The ‘10s

Charlie Strong and company enjoy back-to-back bowl trips in ’10 and ’11 before Teddy Bridgewater and his team of future pro-football players stun #3 Florida 33-23 in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.

Step 4: The Hangover

The ‘90s

Schnellenberger and his Cardinals let their New Year’s hangover linger all year as they come crashing down to a sobering 2-9 1991 season.

The ‘00s

John L. Smith loses focus as he sets his sights higher and ultimately accepts the Michigan State job offer during halftime of the 2002 GMAC Bowl. The Cardinals would go on to lose the bowl game as they completed the season with a 7-6 record.

The ‘10s

Charlie Strong leaves for Texas after the Cards finish 12-1. Petrino takes over for a second stint as he leads UofL into the much tougher ACC. Win totals fall into single digits in ’14 and ’15 as Louisville’s roster turns over.

Step 5: Second Wind

The ‘90s

After nearly flatlining in ’91, Schnellenberger and gang regroup and go on to win 5 games in ’92, and continue forward as they win 9 games and the Liberty Bowl in 1993.

The ‘00s

In 2003 Bobby Petrino takes over a program reeling from a disappointing 7-6 season and strange departure by John L. Smith. The Cards win 41 of the next 50 games as they become one of the hottest programs in the country.

The ‘10s

Petrino 2.0 and gang take time to adjust to life in the ACC, as well as each other in ’14 and ’15, accomplishing decent 9 and 8-win seasons. However, 2016 starts off hotter than any season in recent memory, with Lamar Jackson becoming an overnight phenom and the Cardinals carrying a Top 5 ranking late into November before the wheels fall off in Houston. This doesn’t stop Jackson from taking home the Heisman Trophy and becoming the program’s first player to do so.

Step 6: Repeat Step 1

Over the last 30 years we have seen UofL Football fully go through the same cycle not once, not twice, but three times. Again, there are an innumerable amount of factors that go into winning games. But it’s hard not to feel like with the program resetting and an exciting new coaching staff on campus, that Satterfield and the Cardinals are right on schedule to begin Step 2.

Now is the time to buy in before UofL goes off the charts again, boys and girls.

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