(CNN) No one --- and I mean NO ONE -- knows or cares more about the federal budget than Stan Collender. (Stan's Twitter handle is @thebudgetguy. I rest my case.) With a week left before the federal government is set to run out of money and shut down, I reached out to Stan for some perspective. How likely are we to see a(nother) government shutdown? Where are the pressure points? And, most importantly, who will blink first? Our conversation, conducted via email and lightly edited for flow, is below.

Cillizza: Let's start with the most important question: What are the odds that no budget deal is reached by next Friday night and the government shuts down for even a day or two?

Collender: These are actually two separate questions. There's little chance of a deal by next Friday and a strong (as in close to 100%) chance that the current [continuing resolution] will be extended by a week or two. So no shutdown next Friday.

But there is a decent (probably 60%) chance of a shutdown at some point over [Fiscal Year 2017] funding given that Trump will likely get next-to-nothing of what he proposed.

Cillizza: How much did the calculus change when Trump made clear he wants $1.4 billion in funding for the border wall included?

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