“The league table doesn’t lie” is one of football’s longest standing and most trusted clichés and yet, if a league table in any sport is likely to lie, it will be in football.



This is a sport that throws up unpredictable and “unfair” results, based largely upon the fact it’s the lowest-scoring sport around. Premier League matches average about 2.8 goals per game, and when scoring is such an infrequent event compared to similar team sports, there’s less certainty that the “better” team will eventually prevail.



And this is, in part, why the concept of “expected goals” has gained such traction in recent years — first by those involved in gambling, then by statistical analysts at clubs, and increasingly by the media and football supporters themselves.



For those uninitiated, “expected goals” is essentially a more accurate “shots” figure. For years,...