Virginia Tech at Notre Dame

Betting Line: Notre Dame -17.5

Over/Under: 58

Virginia Tech had a bye week last week, which might have been needed as their most recent outing was a 43-41 win over North Carolina in six overtimes. The Hokies had a tough start to the season that featured two uninspiring wins and disappointing losses. Since then, they have run the table and sit at 5-2 on the season. The good news for Virginia Tech is that it looks like Hendon Hooker will be back to for this game after leaving the North Carolina game with a knee injury. Hooker was subbed in at quarterback a few weeks ago and the Hokies are 3-0 with him as the starter. In this game, Hooker can not get overwhelmed by Notre Dame’s pass rush and their talented secondary. This also means that receivers Tayvion Robinson, Tre Turner, and Damon Hazelton need to find ways to get open. Virginia Tech also needs to be able to exploit Notre Dame’s weakness at defending the run. Deshawn McClease is the prime candidate to take over the ground game, but Virginia Tech does not have a running back who averages five or more yards per carry. If McClease or Keshawn King can find success on the ground, Virginia Tech’s offense will be open for business. Defensively, I think Virginia Tech will need to be sound in coverage. Notre Dame has a lot of big targets at receiver and tight end. Cornerbacks Caleb Farley and Jermaine Waller each have three interceptions on the season, but will be shorter and smaller than their coverage assignments. They can not get outmuscled for passes. They also should try to press on the line and force the receivers to beat them deep. Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book is very accurate (he was not against Michigan but he typically is) but lacks the arm strength to take the top off of a defense with one of his throws. Against the run, the Hokies need to win some battles against a strong offensive line and not let them pave easy holes for Notre Dame’s running backs to run through.

Notre Dame had quite an uninspiring performance last week as they lost to Michigan 45-14. The Fighting Irish had a pretty tough day offensively as they had just 180 total yards on three yards per play. Ian Book struggled through the air as he completed just 8/25 passes for 73 yards. Book will definitely need to elevate his performance in this game or else Notre Dame could definitely lose again. Book will need to be accurate in his passes and receivers Chase Claypool and Cole Kmet (who is a tight end but you get what I mean) will need to be able to catch passes in tight windows. It would also do Notre Dame some good if their run game could take off. The Fighting Irish had just 47 rushing yards on 31 run plays and did not have a run play of more than nine yards. Notre Dame can not let Virginia Tech’s defense be able to ignore one facet of their offense. Jafar Armstrong will need to have a good game, especially with Tony Jones Jr. nursing a rib injury. Defensively, Notre Dame needs to not let Virginia Tech run on them easily. The Fighting Irish gave up over 300 rushing yards against Michigan and will have a hard time seeing success if the Hokies put up similar rushing numbers against them. Their run defense has definitely taken a hit as defensive tackle Daelin Hayes has been out of action for the last month and likely the rest of the season with a torn labrum. Kurt Hinish and Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa (cousin of Tua Tagovailoa) need to hold their own. Julian Okwara and Khalid Kareem should hold their own in both setting the edge against the run and rushing the passer at defensive end. I think if Notre Dame can get a good pass rush with Okwara and Kareem against an inexperienced quarterback, they will be set up for success well.

Prediction:

Notre Dame gets a much needed decisive 38-17 win.

TCU at Oklahoma State

Betting Line: Oklahoma State -2.5

Over/Under: 59

TCU had a pretty nice win last week as they beat my beloved Texas Longhorns in a 37-27 win (do not worry I am totally over it). Quarterback Max Duggan looks to have had a breakout performance as he threw for 273 yards on over 10 yards per attempt and led the team with 72 rushing yards. Oklahoma State is 117th out of 130 FBS teams in passing yards allowed. If Duggan can have a repeat performance against Oklahoma State, the Horned Frogs will be set up quite well. This game also will be a prime spot for Jalen Reagor to have a big day. Reagor is a very good athlete at receiver and could really help Duggan out if he can get separation on his routes. On defense, TCU will be going against the best running back in the country in Oklahoma State’s Chuba Hubbard. The Horned Frogs will likely try to load up the box and be able to make quick reads. Linebackers Garrett Wallow and La’Kendrick Van-Zant will need to be able to make plays at the second level and not allow Hubbard to rip off a long run. Oklahoma State has also had a pretty big problem with turnovers this season, which gives a major opportunity for TCU to take advantage of. If the Horned Frogs can create some turnovers, they will set up their offense very well.

Oklahoma State had a pretty nice win last week as they won 34-27 at Iowa State. The Cowboys finally took care of the ball on offense and it paid dividends in a pretty impressive win. Oklahoma State did have some unfortunate news as it was revealed that star receiver Tylan Wallace will be out for the season with a torn ACL. Wallace has carried Oklahoma State’s passing attack at times as he was on the receiving end of Oklahoma State’s 47% of the team’s passing yards. With Wallace out, the rest of the offense will have to pick up the slack. Dillon Stoner and Braydon Johnson will need to step up as the lead receivers. Quarterback Spencer Sanders will need to lead the way more at quarterback. This also means that the Cowboys will probably have to rely even more on running back Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard leads the country with 1,381 rushing yards through eight games and has consistently been an offensive threat all season. Hubbard will face even more stacked boxes with Wallace’s injury and he will need to bail out the offense. Sanders needs to take care of the ball this game and not force bad throws. Defensively, Oklahoma State can not let TCU receiver Jalen Reagor torch them. The Cowboys have struggled quite a bit against the pass this season and will need to buck that trend if they want to come out on top this week. Rodarius Williams and AJ Green must be sound in coverage against Reagor.

Prediction:

TCU keeps the good times rolling with a 35-27 win.

Georgia vs Florida

Betting Line: Florida +6.5

Over/Under: 45

Georgia had a bye week last week but has not had the most impressive resume in recent weeks. Although it was in rainy weather, the Bulldogs went scoreless in the first half against Kentucky before ultimately winning 21-0, and lost at home to South Carolina before that. One good thing to come out of the game was seeing D’Andre Swift absolutely dominate Kentucky’s defensive front. Swift ran for 179 yards and two touchdowns on the day and was an absolute pain to bring down. Another key factor in Swift’s big day was the offensive line that is loaded with talent. That offensive line will be going a very good Florida defensive front. If the come out on top in the battle of the trenches, Georgia’s offense will be on the fast track to scoring. While I will partially excuse his poor performance against Kentucky because of the weather, I do think Jake Fromm’s recent play at quarterback is a tad concerning. Fromm threw for just 35 yards on 12 attempts against Kentucky and threw three interceptions against South Carolina. Fromm will need to step his game up against Florida. He could also be helped out if Georgia can find a true receiving threat especially against a secondary as good as Florida’s. The likely top candidate would be George Pickens, who is Georgia’s closest thing to a game breaking athlete. On defense, Georgia will need to focus on stopping the run. While I think Florida’s Kyle Trask is a solid quarterback, I am not super confident in his ability to win a game of this magnitude on his own. I think Georgia should be able to have some success against Florida’s offensive line and make things harder for the Gators in the run game and in pass protection.

Florida had a nice win in their last outing as they beat South Carolina 38-27. The Gators trailed at the start of the fourth quarter, but rattled off 21 points in five minutes to pull away with the win. Kyle Trask led the way for the Gators with 200 passing yards and four touchdowns. Trask will be facing against a pretty tough defense this week, but I do not think he will be too phased by it, based on his performance in recent big games. That trend will need to continue for Florida to have success offensively. The Gators have had a very balanced group of receivers this season with many different players emerging as solid targets. If they can continue with that, it will make it harder for Georgia’s secondary to not focus too much on one player and infinite anybody who is not reliable. The Gators struggled a bit against the run like week as they allowed 175 rushing yards from South Carolina’s Tavien Feaster. Georgia has a much better and more physical back and an outstanding offensive line to block for him. The likes of Jabari Zuniga, Jonathan Greenard, and Kyree Campbell need to create some havoc in the backfield and not just let Swift and Georgia’s offense just march it’s way down the field with ease.

Prediction:

I feel bold so I am going with Georgia to win 23-21 in a slight upset.

Utah at Washington

Betting Line: Washington +3

Over/Under: 47.5

Utah had a fairly dominant win over Cal in their last outing. The Utes won 35-0 and allowed just 83 total yards on less than two yards per play. Cal had just three gains of more than 10 yards all day and none of over 15 yards. They also did all of this without defensive end Bradlee Anae who will be back for the matchup with Washington on Saturday. The Utes will need to do well in pass coverage as Washington’s Jacob Eason will not be afraid to test them deep. Thankfully for Utah, Eason at times has issues with the accuracy on his deep ball. If Josh Nurse and Jaylon Johnson can do well in coverage, it will make Eason’s job harder. It will also aid the Utes if they can get a good pass rush and force Eason to think quick. I think Anae and Mika Tafua at defensive end will obviously have to attempt to bring a strong pass rush, but also need to contain the outside, which can be rough against a quick back line Washington’s Salvon Ahmed. If Ahmed breaks loose a long run, it will completely shift the momentum of the game away from Utah. On offense, I think the Utes will run behind Zack Moss often. Moss (who is now Utah’s all-time leading rushers as of a few weeks ago) has been absolutely deadly when healthy and is a good power back. If Moss can gash Washington’s defense, I do not see why they would not continue to go to that well. Tyler Huntley has had a solid season at quarterback, but I think he is a solid player. What does concern me a bit is that Washington has a very good secondary that can be intimidating to throw right into. Receivers Bryan Thompson, and Demari Simpkins as well as tight end Brant Kuithe will need to not let Washington’s cornerbacks get comfortable draping themselves all over receivers in coverage.

Washington had a bye week last week which I am sure they used as a good opportunity to regroup after a blown lead in a home loss against Oregon. The Huskies led 28-14 in the second half but eventually fell 35-31. While he previously struggled against better defenses, Jacob Eason actually had a very good day at quarterback and was able to go toe to toe with Oregon’s Justin Herbert. Eason can not let his inaccuracy issues resurface this game and he can not force bad throws. Eason also will need to be ready to face a good pass rush and not panic if a defender is in his sights. It would also help Washington if Salvon Ahmed could be reliable in the backfield. On defense, I think I trust Washington’s cornerbacks to handle one on one matchups with Utah’s receivers, which should free the Huskies up to playing a bit aggressively in stopping the run. Utah will likely rely a lot on Zack Moss who is not an easy guy to bring down. Washington will need to generate some big plays defensively and really make Utah earn their rushing yards. The decision to play aggressively against the run will also definitely put a lot of pressure on cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Asa Turner. They must be sure to not blow their assignments. I also think Myles Bryant will be a key player both in coverage at nickel back but also in how he will be used in blitzes as he is second on the team in tackles for loss.

Prediction:

Utah keeps their slim playoff hopes alive with a 27-23 win.

SMU at Memphis

Betting Line: Memphis -6

Over/Under: 71.5

SMU had a fairly close call with Houston last week but were able to keep the undefeated season alive with a 34-31 win. Shane Buechele was not quite as accurate as he typically is, completing just 20/38 passes for 203 yards. Buechele will need to be a bit more reliable through the air against Memphis if the Mustangs want to find any success. I am sure that it has not helped that receiver Reggie Roberson Jr. left the Houston game with a foot injury and is questionable for the game against Memphis. If Roberson plays, it will be a huge help for SMU’s offense. If he does not play, James Proche will need to step up as the go to guy. Proche is a tremendous athlete but I think has been another beneficiary of Roberson’s rise as a playmaker as he has been used to not being the main key for opponents at receiver. Thankfully for the Mustangs, they still have running back Xavier Jones who ran for 133 yards against Houston. Jones is a very underrated back and SMU should look to establish the run game with him early. Memphis struggled against the run in their most recent game, so it is definitely a doable task. On defense, the Mustangs need to be ready for Memphis’s strong run game. The Tigers have developed a reliance on the run game under Mike Norvell and have seen some good running backs come through their program. Kenneth Gainwell looks to be next on that list. SMU can not let Gainwell get going, especially if they fall behind early in the game. They also need to watch out for Gainwell as a pass catcher out of the backfield. If SMU can stifle Memphis’s run game, it will be a long day for the Tigers.

Memphis survived by the skin of their teeth last week as they beat Tulsa 42-41 after the Golden Hurricane shanked a 29 yard field goal that would have won the game for them as time expired. Memphis had some struggles stopping the run as Tulsa’s Shamari Brooks ran for 156 yards against them. Defensive linemen Joseph Dorceus and Bruce Huff will need to control the line of scrimmage and not let SMU push around their defensive front. SMU also has a good running back in Xavier Jones so that task will not be easy. Thankfully for Memphis, they themselves have a good running back in redshirt freshman Kenneth Gainwell. After Patrick Taylor went down with an injury during week 1, Gainwell (who has the perfect name for a running back) stepped in and already has rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on the season and another 440 receiving yards and three touchdowns. If Memphis can just pave a path for Gainwell to go, they will be in good shape. If the Tigers get the run game going early with Gainwell, SMU will be in trouble. Quarterback Brady White has a good day against Tulsa and is definitely capable of making some plays himself. I think Memphis needs to try and find proper times to let White punish SMU’s defense on play action. The Tigers also need a good day from their offensive line to pave they way for Gainwell and five White time to throw.

Prediction:

Even though they have College GameDay in town, Memphis can not quite get it done as SMU wins 38-35 and remains undefeated.

Oregon at USC

Betting Line: USC +4

Over/Under: 62

Oregon came out on top against Washington State and snapped a four game losing streak to them, but it was definitely not a comfortable win. Washington State scored to go ahead 35-34 with a minute left, but the Ducks were able to get a good drive going and set up a 26 yard field goal for kicker Camden Lewis, which he hit. Oregon definitely showed some deficiencies when it comes to defending the air raid offense, which coincidentally is exactly what USC runs. Cornerbacks Thomas Graham Jr. and Deommodore Lenoir need to be sound in coverage and be ready to cover a leather area of the field. USC’s Michael Pittman (who will actually be playing against his brother Mycah, a receiver for Oregon) has two games of over 150 receiving yards, including going for 156 receiving yards last week and will not be an easy assignment, but then again neither will Tyler Vaughns or Amon-Ra St. Brown. Oregon can not let their cornerbacks get burned. The Ducks also should be able to get some movement against USC’s faulty offensive line, which will do Oregon huge favors. On offense, I think the usual plan of establishing the run game and trying to gash the opponent should work again this week. CJ Verdell had a mobster game against Washington State with 257 rushing yards and he will need to do well again this week (not over 250 yards goo but still solid). With how well the run game was going last week, Justin Herbert did not have to do a ton at quarterback, but he should expect this week to be different as USC’s defense will be a step up from last week.

USC had a pretty impressive comeback last week as they trailed Colorado 31-21 in the fourth quarter before winning 35-31. USC’s passing attack was very impressive as Kedon Slovis threw for 406 yards and four touchdowns. This week will be a step up in terms of caliber of defense. The Trojans will need for Michael Pittman and Tyler Vaughns to find ways to create separation from Oregon’s cornerbacks like they did against Colorado. They also need Slovis to stay calm in the pocket but also be protected. USC’s offensive line is a bit uninspiring, and it will not make things pretty if Slovis has to run for his life. On defense, the Trojans need to find a way to get some resistance against Oregon’s elite offensive line. The prime candidates to do that will be defensive ends Drake Jackson and Christian Rector (who is questionable for the game). If they can find ways to get past Oregon’s offensive line on occasion or at least challenge them, it can make things a bit uncomfortable for the Ducks. Jay Tufele also needs to hold things down inside at defensive tackle. If USC can force Oregon to pass the ball and not just run straight at them, it will put Oregon out of their element. That also means they need to be sound in coverage as they are going against a future first round draft pick in Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert.

Prediction:

Oregon wins a back and forth game 34-31.

To be notified when I post, follow my Instagram @impassionedsportsnerd. Last week was rough for me as I was 2-4 against the spread. I am sitting at 31-26-2 against the spread this season.

Share this: Twitter

Facebook

Like this: Like Loading...