The brewing security threat following Covid-19

Copyright 2017 Scripps Media, Inc. Photo by: Kevin Necessary.

As the spread of the virus is showing signs of deceleration in the West, the topic of rebooting the economy becomes prominent. In fact, the end product of “going back to our normal ways” undoubtedly takes precedent over the steps necessary to ensure a sustainable and safe re-opening across our complex societies.

Sadly, this is a by-product of both media and politicians, utilising Hope as a selling point. Indeed, it is a necessity to raise hope within the population, to change the mood, to hopefully rekindle confidence, leading to increasing consumer spending and thus reversing the current free fall the economy. Furthermore, it is important to note that this is a huge selling point for governing political parties, to redraw their image post corona crisis, to go from the government who “did not do enough”, to the government who “successfully saved the nation in just three months”.

I mean, 2020 is election season after all.

Yet, make no mistake. Although we are going to win the fight versus Covid-19, we are not going to pick up where we left off on New Year’s Eve 2020. In fact, amidst the race for the Covid-19 vaccine, another issue arises from the prospective revival of the world economy — security.

The dangers of invincibility

The Covid-19 crisis took the world by storm. The argument can be made that most nations and supranational entities overlooked the severity of the issue that had been developing in China as far back as November 2019. Heads of state and the general population shrugged off this new threat despite the apparent severity foretold by the numerous Chinese warnings. It is not the first time that the fortunate and powerful dismiss so-called idled threats and dangers. That is, until it is too late.

It appears to be a trait of human nature, to be above and beyond anything bad that is yet to happen. Just ask the French and the British on the eve of WWII, or the big banks and governments ahead of the 08 financial crisis. It is often that bad news are met with reluctance, and that we attempt to overlook them, or deny their credibility, as their potential consequences are too nefarious for us to process in our current state.

I mean, “ignorance is bliss” after all. Whether the latter is sincere or engineered is sadly irrelevant.

The only proven Covid-19 solution

The virus having now ravaged through most of the Northern Hemisphere, has finally been met with the only proven defense known to humankind when faced with a viral pandemic — quarantine and isolation.

The severity of the Covid-19 impact on modern society is too early to identify and quantify. Yet, there is an overwhelming focus on the economic and fiscal impacts of the virus, and not enough attention given to the mental health of those affected. The largest recipient of its wrath and devastating effect is undoubtedly the masses, the many, the commoners. Although the virus is renowned for its dangerous health impact, the consequences of unemployment and isolation are significantly downplayed.

You see, there is no vaccine for the mental health of people in isolation or unemployment, let alone both at the same time.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, there are now over 22 million unemployed, just in the US. However, make no mistake, this is not an American issue, but a Global one. The severity of this is highly understated, and it is far more than just an economical problem.

Side-effects of this crisis

There is a strong correlation between the rise of unemployment, social isolation and death rates in society, yet it’s nearly impossible to directly quantify the precision of the correlation. However, there are logical pointers to put forward which will explain the upcoming rise of security threats in society.

Although nations around the world are doing most of what they can, it is a hard task to satisfy all the needs of society in a situation out of their control, and new questions do arise in the minds of many.

Why is this happening? Why did the government not stop this before it got out of hand? Why is there no more toilet paper at the store? Why is my relative dying alone? Why is the government spending billions on helping crooked companies instead of helping me make rent? How will I put food on the table?

And the big one — Who is to blame?

A direct consequence of this pandemic is the inherent loss of trust, whether justified or not, toward authoritative figures, toward the system, and toward others.

Furthermore, unemployment and isolation bring out additional consequences. Logically, there is an inherent loss of control, of confidence and self-esteem, of identity, of purpose, and the rise of fear and boredom, to name a few. This would be straining for any individual’s mental health.

Essentially, our normal lives have been turned upside down from one day to the next. Most had no say in this, some find themselves cut off from the world, others are unable to pay rent, to sustain their family, or even to find their first job to pay their overwhelming student debt.

Stress, anxiety and depression inevitably rise in uncertain times, and more often than not, some seek a sense of relief through the use of substances (i.e. Drugs, Alcohol…). Others will seek to escape reality (e.g. video games), and some will try to make sense of it.

Now why am I telling you this? It all seems pretty straightforward, maybe even expected. And for the overwhelming majority of society, it is, and things will most probably go back to normal. Yet, for a select few, this period will affect them beyond what we are willing to accept, or indeed, even capable to comprehend.

There is an inherent trait in human nature that has been crucial to the survival of our species. Once stripped of all control, there is a desire, sometimes irrational, to regain control.

That is quite logical — “Adapt or die”.

Promoting violence.

Violence is fuelled by the rising sentiment deriving from the Covid-19 pandemic and the necessary measures to quell the spread.

Fear of the outsiders, borders being closed, segregation being promoted, frustration, and boredom. These all feed off of each other. Yet this does not justify the current rise of racism and hatred. Since the epidemic evolved to a pandemic, there has been a surge in examples of this, whether it is the rise of racist behaviour toward ethnic Han Chinese in Western societies, or the organised Islamophobic violence around CoronaJihad accusations in India. This is an increasing issue, and no, the use of violence is not justified.

Nevertheless, violence is erupting from this pandemic, and will keep doing so.

But where will it manifest itself?

The first theatre for violence is the home. Why? Because for most, home is the first place where one can attempt to regain control. Sadly, regaining control will, by some, be perceived to require the use of violence (both physical and psychological).

Already apparent, there will be a sharp rise of domestic abuse. And make no mistake, this abuse take multiple forms and it is not gender specific. It can erupt from male, female, and others alike.

Although it is impossible to quantify the actual impact of this, some things are already visible such as divorce rates and the increasing utilisation of resources and mechanisms accessible to cope with domestic abuse.

The case for violence at home will reflect in current and future generations, becoming an increasing family and societal issue. This translates in both individual, and collective suffering as well as a lack of productivity across society.

The second theatre for violence is society as a whole, where two phenomenons will continue to grow.

Firstly, “petty crime” or “misdemeanours”, including petty theft, vandalism, prostitution, simple offence, as well as all by-products of substance abuse. The rise can be anticipated by the fact that many will go hungry.

I believe that when people do go hungry, and they will, they will not have the luxury of getting good at learning or producing, except perhaps resorting to violence in order to survive.

Secondly, the most severe security threat. The imminent rise of terrorist attacks, including mass shootings, random attacks, and politico-ideological attacks.

As part of attempting to regain control of a situation, humans often seek to rationalise their misfortune and thus rationalise their “required” behaviour to regain their control. More often than not, this implies a necessity for defining the reason for their current misfortune and difficulty. Historically, the prime suspect has been “the other one”, “the different one”, “the one I do not understand”, a phenomenon also known as scapegoating. Indeed, the rise of social standing complexes, xenophobia and resentment are already mega trends in most Western societies, and will act as conduit to the inner fire of certain individuals bottled up during this isolation. Not to mention politico-ideological recruitment.

With their life being turned upside down, with the total loss of control, with a perceived feeling of incompetence (due to unemployment, financial difficulty, boredom), combined with fear and resentment, there is a rising threat to society.

As Isaac Asimove said : “Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent” and this crisis has, for many, only created limitations without any apparent solution. Violence can and will manifest itself as a combination of rejection of other people and low self-esteem.

Conclusion

I write this because I urge governments to take the necessary precautions to protect their citizens not only during the crisis but also after. This is a real threat to society and it is imminent upon the revival of “normal life”. In order to find light at the end of the corona crises tunnel, it is crucial to be prepared for its worst consequences.

Government needs to put in place proper plans to reopen society gradually and to provide frustrated, isolated and unemployed people with a purpose.

In many ways, I believe that purpose is the vaccine for violence.

Purpose translating into a sense of belonging, of identity, of mental and emotional stimulus.

I therefore want to urge you all to stay safe, but also to reach out to those in need of attention and affection, to get out of your comfort zone and help both your own and the next’s mental health.

I believe that everyone can take part in beating this new threat before it emerges.

With a decelerating spread, and the virus migrating to the even less prepared Southern Hemisphere, it is time to face the yet again overlooked and unaccepted potential outcomes of political actions — this time being the unprepared, if not irresponsible, fast re-opening of society.