Taken in isolation, these tweets would mean little. But they need to be viewed in the context of another Trump threat that today is being widely taken very seriously by Republicans and news organizations alike: His threat to force a government shutdown to gain funding for his cherished wall on the Mexican border.

All in all, what Trump is really threatening is to inflict a massive political nightmare on the congressional leaders of his own party. This political nightmare actually has multiple dimensions, which becomes apparent when you step back and recap all the things that are up in the air right now:

The debt ceiling must be raised by some time in October, or we’ll be at risk of default and economic calamity. The government must be funded by October (or a continuing resolution must be passed), or it will shut down, and Trump is insisting that he is prepared to let that happen if Congress does not fund his wall. Trump must decide by some time in September whether to continue supporting the Obama-era executive action that grants work permits and protection from deportation to some 800,000 people brought here illegally as children, a.k.a the “dreamers.” Trump must decide whether to keep funding the “cost-sharing reductions,” or CSRs, that subsidize coverage for lower income people, or Republicans must decide whether to appropriate that money. If they are stopped, insurers could exit the individual markets, meaning they could melt down and leave millions without coverage options. Trump must decide whether to go through with his pardon of Joe Arpaio.

It’s hard to say how these things will overlap with one another in this fall’s negotiations. But here’s what we know so far. The administration wants a debt ceiling hike, but, with some congressional conservatives sure to demand spending cuts in exchange for going along with it, the talks over the debt limit will get tangled up with the talks over funding the government. Trump is demanding border wall funding or he won’t sign a bill keeping the government in business, but Democrats have drawn a hard line against that.

At the same time, the White House may use the fate of the dreamers as a “bargaining chip” to try to compel Congress to fund the wall (and make other concessions as well), which is also unlikely to sway Democrats. Meanwhile, Democrats may demand that Republicans agree to fund the CSRs as a condition for their support for a budget, which GOP leaders are likely to need, since they’ll lose some conservatives.

It is easy to see Trump caving on all these fronts. He has already threatened in the past to hold up government funding over the wall and not to fund the CSRs — and he has backed down on those fronts. He campaigned on a vow to scrap all of President Barack Obama’s executive actions immediately — including the one protecting dreamers — but balked once in office, in part, at least, because the political fallout would have been crushing.

But here’s the problem: Trump has boxed himself in, perhaps to a far greater degree than a few months ago. At his Arizona rally, Trump bashed Congress for failing to help him build the wall, which unleashed a great roar from the crowd: “Build that wall! Build that wall!” The New York Times reports that former chief strategist Stephen K. Bannon privately told Trump that getting the wall funding is an absolute must, because Trump’s base will not tolerate another loss after the failure to repeal Obamacare. Never mind that repeal would have hit Trump voters particularly hard; Bannon believes Trump must have a “win” — if it isn’t the sight of Trump stomping all over something with Obama’s name on it, the wall will have to do — or the base will be crushed with shame and disappointment over their loser president.

Add to this the fact that Trump also broadly hinted a pardon of Arpaio is coming, which also elicited a tremendous roar of approval from the Arizona crowd, strongly suggesting that they expect Trump to deliver here, too. After all, pardoning Arpaio is making the right people (the elites) angry, and Trump won’t surrender to elites lecturing him about the limits on his power, right? We also know that, with the Russia probes closing in, Trump views keeping the base strongly in his corner as crucial. The upshot: Trump may feel more pressure to deliver for them. Indeed, as Brian Beutler argues, multiple conditions are now in place for Trump to break free of the self-preservative constraints that limited him before, and go through with some of these vows once and for all.

But the political threats here have to spook Republicans the most. The bulk of the blame for a government shutdown — or, perish the thought, default — would likely fall most heavily on Republicans. Same goes for the fallout from 800,000 dreamers losing work permits or from the insurance markets melting down. A pardon of Arpaio, an authoritarian racist with a history of abusive treatment of Latinos, will lead to a major escalation in discussion of Trump’s lawlessness and force Republicans to take a position on it. In these scenarios, Trump is leaving his fellow Republicans with options that range from terrible to horrible. And it’s unclear whether Trump understands this — or cares about it if he does.

* TRUMP RAGES OVER MUELLER LEGISLATION: Politico reports that Trump “privately vented his frustration” in calls with several GOP senators. In one, he rebuked an effort by Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) to push a bill that would constrain him from firing special counsel Robert S. Mueller III:

The Mueller bill came up during the Tillis-Trump conversation, according to a source briefed on the call — the latest signal of the president’s impatience with GOP senators’ increasing declarations of independence from his White House. Trump was unhappy with the legislation and didn’t want it to pass, one person familiar with the call said.

Why would Trump be unhappy with this, unless he wants to preserve the ability to remove Mueller?

* EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY BETWEEN TRUMP AND McCONNELL: The White House and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) have both released statements telling the world they are working together smoothly. McConnell’s statement says they “are committed to advancing our shared agenda together,” and the White House one says they “remain united on many shared priorities.”

Yep, ignore all those Trump tweets calling McConnell a Big Loser for failing to give Trump a health-care bill to sign, and forget those reports saying McConnell doubts the Trump presidency can be saved. Everything is going great!

We have concluded that President Trump’s statements during and after the tragic events in Charlottesville are so lacking in moral leadership and empathy for the victims of racial and religious hatred that we cannot organize such a call this year.

“Lacking in moral leadership and empathy for the victims of racial and religious hatred” sums it up nicely.

* KELLY TAKES NEW STEPS TO LIMIT TRUMP’S INFO: Politico reports that Chief of Staff John F. Kelly is putting in place a new internal system designed to make sure he “has the last word” on what information finds its way to the president:

It’s a quiet effort to make Trump conform to White House decision-making norms he’s flouted without making him feel shackled or out of the loop. … The new system … is designed to ensure that the president won’t see any external policy documents, internal policy memos, agency reports, and even news articles that haven’t been vetted.

This is similar to systems under previous presidents, but in this case, the president — who speaks to the nation via Twitter while watching Fox News — just might prove tougher to manage.

* SENATE MAP IS TOUGH FOR DEMS, BUT A DRAW IS LIKELY: Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball takes a deep look at the history and notes that while many more Democratic Senate incumbents are on defense next year, out-party incumbents often win reelection. The upshot:

The map is so attractive that the Republicans easily could start 2019 with more seats than they hold now. A Democratic takeover seems very unlikely given that they have so many seats to defend and only two real targets, Arizona and Nevada. The best possible scenario for Democrats … would seem to be a 50-50 Senate with a Republican vice president breaking ties, and even that seems improbable … the best bet right now seems to be one in favor of only marginal net change either way in the next Senate.

Crystal Ball rates only four Senate races toss-ups right now — Nevada, Arizona, Missouri and Indiana — and those four seats are split evenly between the parties, making a draw more likely.

* LIBERAL DEMOCRACY IS IN RETREAT: E.J. Dionne Jr. argues that the most consequential question facing us now is whether liberal democracy will survive and notes that we must make an affirmative case for it and show that it can produce broad-based prosperity:

When liberal democrats become arrogant and forget that governments have an obligation to create the circumstances for widespread well-being, autocrats will always be there offering security and prosperity in exchange for less freedom. Liberal democracy must be defended. It must also deliver the goods.

If the Trump era forces us all to make a better case for liberal democracy, and improve its workings for all, perhaps some good may come of it.

* AND THE TRANSGENDER BAN IS SET TO MOVE FORWARD: The Wall Street Journal reports that the White House is expected to formally direct the Pentagon to stop admitting transgender troops and stop funding the medical treatment of those currently serving. But:

Defense officials have been perplexed about how they can legally or morally justify separating open transgender service members from the service, especially those who were invited to identify themselves when the ban was lifted, officials have said.