The price of oil has staged a recovery from its March low. But not all producers’ stock prices have hitched a ride higher.

Oil rose to a 2015 closing high Wednesday, helped by six straight weeks of inventory declines.

Here’s how the S&P 500 Oil and Gas Exploration Index SPSIOP, -4.07% and the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF XOP, -4.52% have fared against the price of West Texas crude oil CLN25, over the past six months:

Following a remarkable recovery for oil prices from March through the middle of April, oil got stuck and producers’ stocks reversed themselves. FactSet

“The stocks got ahead of themselves when oil started rallying” from the middle of March through the middle of April, according to Sterne Agee CRT analyst Tim Rezvan.

Rezvan, in a phone interview Thursday, said that over the past year, “the market has bid up names that are perceived to be of high quality.” Those include companies with a high share of shale-oil production in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico.

It’s all about production costs

Rezvan on Wednesday rolled out a new “break-even cost analysis” for the 20 oil and gas producers he covers. The idea was to calculate “full-cycle” unit costs for each company’s oil or gas production and arrive at a “conceptual ‘break-even’ commodity price bogey for each company,” which would be 10% higher than the full-cycle cost. In other words, those are the commodity prices each producer needs to make a 10% return in that production category.

Rezvan broke up a group of 18 of the 20 stocks he covers into “oily” companies, with oil production making up 50% or more of the total stream; “gassy” companies, with natural gas making up 70% or more of production; and “combo companies,” with oil making up 25% to 50% of output.

Here’s the “oily” group, with Sterne Agee CRT’s estimated break-even points for barrel-of-oil-equivalent prices in 2015 and 2016, as well as each company’s estimated 2015 percentage of oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas production:

Diamondback Energy Inc. FANG, -6.04% has the lowest estimated break-even cost for oil production for this group of producers covered by Sterne Agee CRT. And its stock is up 35% this year. Oil will make up an estimated 77% of the company’s production in 2015.

Denbury Resources Inc. US:DNR is at the bottom of the list, with an estimated break-even oil price $70.91, which was more than 50% higher than Wednesday’s closing price for West Texas crude for July delivery. As a result, its shares have dropped 14% this year. Sterne Agee CRT estimated that oil will make up 95% of the company’s total production this year.

Here’s the “gassy” group, showing estimated break-even points per thousand cubic feet of natural gas:

Company Ticker Estimated break-even price for gas - 2015 Estimated break-even price for gas - 2016 Estimated oil production % Estimated NGL production % Estimated gas production % Ultra Petroleum Corp. US:UPL $2.82 $2.76 7% 0% 93% Gulfport Energy Corp. GPOR, -10.30% $2.99 $2.85 10% 15% 75% Rice Energy Inc. US:RICE $3.22 $3.04 0% 1% 99% Southwestern Energy Co. SWN, -5.10% $3.49 $3.36 1% 5% 93% Chesapeake Energy Corp. US:CHK $4.75 $5.11 17% 10% 73% PetroQuest Energy Inc. US:PQ $4.78 $4.94 8% 15% 76% Source: Sterne Agee CRT

Ultra Petroleum Corp. heads the list, with an estimated break-even price for 2015 of $2.82/mcfe, but that is only slightly lower than the closing price of $2.91 for natural gas US:NGN15 for July delivery on Wednesday.

Here’s the “combo” group with estimated break-even points for barrel-of-oil-equivalent prices in 2015 and 2016:

Company Ticker Estimated break-even price for oil - 2015 Estimated break-even price for oil - 2016 Estimated oil production % Estimated NGL production % Estimated gas production % Gastar Exploration Inc. US:GST $24.20 $24.34 33% 20% 47% Approach Resources Inc. US:AREX $31.81 $31.70 40% 29% 31% Noble Energy Inc. NBL, -3.66% $38.18 $38.62 34% 11% 55% QEP Resources Inc. QEP, -8.04% $39.73 $39.72 36% 8% 56% Source: Sterne Agee CRT

Costs for oil compare very well to those of the “oily” group. However, this group’s exposure is mostly to gas.

Two companies covered by Sterne Agee CRT were excluded from these lists. Occidental Petroleum Corp. OXY, -4.46% reports unit costs that make a comparison difficult. And Viper Energy Partners LP VNOM, -2.44% is a master limited partnership.

Putting it all together

Stocks of some of the companies with the lowest estimated production costs are already too high for Rezvan to place “buy” ratings on them, so his most favored names may not necessarily be what you might expect based on the above cost estimates.

Sterne Agee CRT has “buy” ratings on 11 oil and gas production stocks. Here they are, ordered by 12-month implied upside potential: