Around these parts I’m usually the optimistic one. I’m the one that never gives up on hope on this team, and will believe an MLS Cup run is possible until we’re officially eliminated and the final whistle blows.

As much as I want to keep on being that person after Saturday’s draw against the Philadelphia Union, I’m left with the uneasy feeling that I should probably start thinking about the upcoming season. However, the last thing that should ever do is lose hope. For that reason, we will keep on releasing these playoff updates until the second it is mathematically impossible to qualify.

After giving up two points to the Columbus Crew in our most recent home game, we have pretty much put them in the driver’s seat for that 5th and final playoff spot. The Crew are on pace to ending the season with 47 points instead of the 45 points that were needed before. Those two extra points that were added to the playoff cutoff line can be attributed to the Houston Dynamo choking at home.

The Houston Dynamo currently sit at 33 points with 6 games remaining. We are going to at least need 14 points in order to take this into a tiebreak scenario or 15 points to try to win it outright. The Columbus Crew are 4 wins away from taking away any possibility of us beating them in a tiebreak scenario, however, those 4 wins would also put them out of reach for us becoming a non-factor.

Realistically, the Columbus Crew are a couple of wins away from making themselves unreachable. Our only option is for them to start dropping points like crazy and for the Dynamo to either win 5 out of the final 6 games or win 4 and draw two.

Every single one of our upcoming matches are winnable except for probably the away match at New York, three of those should be assured victories considering they’re at home, but as we experienced a little over a week ago. Not even The Oven can lead us to victory if we do not put in the hard work that’s needed.

The other three matches are away, however, considering Toronto’s recent form, there’s a chance that we beat them at home if we play like we did against Sporting Kansas City a few weeks back. The other winnable away match is actually the final regular season match against the Fire at Chicago. They’re not in the best of form, but neither are we so it’ll be a close match. If every result goes our way, and we end up taking any hope into Chicago we have a chance at qualifying.

The way I see it our realistic path to the playoffs is as follows:

Win on Sunday against Chicago in The Oven.

Lose or draw against New York Red Bulls at Red Bull Arena

Get a rare victory against Toronto FC in Canada.

Beat D.C. United in Houston.

Earn three points at home versus the Revolution

Go into the final match day with hope and beat the Fire at Toyota Park.

This scenario will leave us at 48 points. If we get to 48 points we will need the following things to happen:

Columbus Crew has to lose 3 or lose two and draw one of their final 5 games.

Philadelphia Union have to lose a minimum of 2 of their final 5 games.

Toronto FC cannot win more than 3 of their final 6 games.

Chicago becomes a non-factor because they need to go undefeated in order to qualify and our playoff hopes depend on beating them twice in the final 6 games.

Rooting Interests for the upcoming week:

There you have it. It’s a difficult task but it’s still possible. Technically we cannot be eliminated during this upcoming match day, but a loss will mean that we have to win all 5 of our final games. Not even one single draw is possible. May the odds be ever in our favor….