With the 2018 MLB Draft signing deadline in the rearview mirror, major league teams and college programs finally know with certainty which players will be joining their respective organizations.

As has been the case since the current draft system began in 2012, a large majority of players in the top 10 rounds signed with the teams who drafted them. It’s not guaranteed, but if a player is selected on the first two days of the draft, odds are they are going to sign. If you limit the sample to the first three rounds—which are the rounds that teams are awarded compensation picks if they fail to sign a prospect—no more than four players have ever not signed, dating back to 2012.

2012: 4

2013: 3

2014: 3

2015: 4

2016: 1

2017: 1

There are a number of reasons why a player drafted in the top three rounds will end up not signing. Large bonus demands, medical issues, teams and/or advisors incorrectly assessing signability or value. This year, four players drafted in the first three rounds failed to come to agreements with the team who selected them: RHP Carter Stewart (No. 8, Braves), SS Matt McLain (No. 25, D-backs), RHP J.T. Ginn (No. 30, Dodgers), RHP Gunnar Hoglund (No. 36, Pirates). Stewart and Ginn are both committed to Mississippi State. McLain is committed to UCLA and Gunnar Hoglund is committed to Mississippi.

But what happens after a player taken that high doesn’t sign? Do things wind up in the players’ favor, or the teams’? At least under the current system, it’s more common that pro teams make the right decision when deciding to cut bait on players.

Of the 15 players since 2012 who were drafted in the first three rounds but didn’t sign and went through the draft process a second time (Texas Christian LHP Nick Lodolo will have to wait until next June), just four players wound up signing for more than their original signing bonus slot.

This is not to say that only these instances proved worthwhile for the players, as in many instances players don’t sign in part because they didn’t get a slot offer in the first place. Often a discovery of a medical issue leads teams to cut their bonus offer, which then leads the player to opt not to sign. That's what happened with Brady Aiken, Matt Krook and others.

Of those 15 players who did not sign, 11 players wound up being selected later in the draft the second time around, or received a signing bonus less than the slot value of the draft year they did not sign. Three players—Jonathan Hughes (2015), Ben Deluzio (2013) and Alec Rash (2012)—went undrafted entirely after not signing in the top three rounds.

College righthanders Brady Singer and Mark Appel are easily the biggest winners of the group. Appel was drafted by the Pirates with the eighth overall pick in 2012 ($2.9 million slot) but chose to return to Stanford and wound up becoming the first overall pick to the Astros a year later, signing for $6.35 million. Singer was selected by the Blue Jays with the 56th pick out of high school in 2015 ($1,091,200 slot) but made it to Florida before signing with the Royals for an overslot $4.25 million as the 18th pick this year.

Below you can look at the entire group of top-three round players who went unsigned since 2012 and see their results.

We also included a look at which players teams drafted with the compensatory pick that they received for not signing a top three rounds pick. In some cases, teams do much better. For instance, the Cardinals picked Jordan Hicks with the pick they received for failing to sign Trevor Megill. The Pirates landed Austin Meadows with the pick they received for not signing Mark Appel.

On the other hand, the Blue Jays likely would have been better off signing Brady Singer than replacement pick J.B. Woodman and the Nationals would have gotten a solid rotation piece if they had signed Andrew Suarez. Instead they got Andrew Stevenson, who has also made the big leagues in a limited role.