Jacquelyn Martin, Associated Press

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Political star power

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LORAIN, Ohio — Under Ohio’s election rules, Sen. Sherrod Brown’s name won’t appear on the top of the ballot, since state level offices come first.

But there’s no question that Brown, his party’s lone statewide elected official, is the star on Ohio’s Democratic slate of candidates.

“I think he definitely views himself as the leader of the ticket,” said Democratic Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, who is close to Brown. “He’s said that to folks.”

Brown, who's being challenged by Rep. Jim Renacci, a Republican congressman from Wadsworth, represents his party’s best chance to win in November. And if things go especially well for him, he could help propel Democrats to their first state-level wins in over a decade.

If they don’t go well? Ohio Democrats, already an endangered species, might be rendered irrelevant.

“If Sherrod Brown can’t win in Ohio, I don’t know what Democrat can in the near-term,” said Kyle Kondik, an Ohio native who works as a political analyst for the University of Virginia. “If Brown were losing, you’d probably think that Democrats were getting swept in all the other statewide races.”

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Andrew J. Tobias, cleveland.com

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A recent scene at a Labor Day celebration in Lorain, Brown’s former hometown, illustrates Brown’s political star power among Democrats.

Brown got a celebrity’s greeting when he arrived at the Sunday event, which was organized by local labor unions and is a major event on Ohio’s Democratic political calendar.

Thronged by staff, Brown posed for selfies, talked with reporters and even autographed a firefighter’s helmet.

Meanwhile, mingling quietly with local elected officials on the periphery was Richard Cordray, the unassuming Democratic nominee for governor who’s ostensibly leading the Democratic ticket for the November election.

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Andrew J. Tobias, cleveland.com

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Changing political terrain

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Later on stage, Cordray spoke, as did other members of the Democratic ticket. But it’s Brown who got the headlining slot, addressing the hundreds of people braving the sweltering heat while the candidates spoke. (The trick to getting people to wait? The labor unions organizing the festival waited until after the speeches to announce the winners of the day’s series of raffles.)

Before launching into a speech railing against Republican “corruption” in Washington and Columbus and even worse, the North American Free Trade Agreement, Brown personally vouched, one by one, for the other, lesser-known Democratic officials who gathered on stage.

He paused for a moment as he got near the end of the line.

“We don’t have anyone…I’m the only Democratic statewide official,” Brown says. “I don’t want that to be the case in November.”

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William Laney, Wapakoneta Daily News / Associated Press

Brown and Ted Strickland campaign shortly before the Nov. 7, 2006 Ohio election that saw them both elected.

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A subdued Senate campaign

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Ohio historically has been a presidential swing state. But due to their struggles in off-year elections, Democrats have only held the Ohio governor’s office for four years since 1991.

Brown was elected to the Senate in 2006, the last year state Democrats did well, beating Republican Mike DeWine by 12 points. The same year, Ted Strickland, then an Eastern Ohio congressman, was elected governor.

Brown is the sole Democratic survivor from 2006, which also saw Cordray elected as state treasurer. That’s because U.S. senators serve six-year terms, allowing Brown to dodge tough election cycles in 2010 — the Tea Party wave year in which Republicans ousted every Ohio Democrat, including Strickland and Cordray — or 2014, when governor candidate Ed FitzGerald’s abysmal campaign dragged down the entire ticket.

Brown won re-election in 2012, when then-President Barack Obama won Ohio by 3 points. Brown won by six points, but he was unquestionably assisted by Obama’s extensive field operation, which mobilized Democratic voters across the state.

This year, Brown won’t have an assist from Obama. He’s also running in a midterm, the electorates for which historically have been more conservative. On the other hand, midterms also usually see a backlash against the party in power in the White House.

Still, Ohio and the Midwest generally are viewed as tracking to the political right, best illustrated by President Donald Trump’s 8-point surprising victory in 2016. The same year, Strickland, the former governor, was crushed by Republican Sen. Rob Portman, who won by 21 points.

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John Kuntz, cleveland.com

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So, it seems like Brown, one of the most liberal members of the U.S. Senate, is running in a tough political environment.

But most political observers, Republican and Democrat, believe he’s holding a comfortable lead over Renacci. In part, Brown may have lucked out by drawing an opponent who’s never run statewide in Renacci, who was a last-minute replacement in the Senate race after Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel dropped out earlier this year.

Public polls mostly have shown Brown with a double-digit lead, although a new poll this week by a Democratic research firm found him winning by just 5 points.

Still, Brown’s perceived strength, and an expansive Senate map of more-competitive battleground races, has kept on the sidelines the national Republican groups that usually flood Ohio with tens of millions of dollars in advertising.

Matt Borges, former chairman of the Ohio Republican Party, said Brown and other Ohio Democrats have shown unusual discipline this year in a political environment that’s already likely to be as favorable as it gets for them, given Trump’s ability to galvanize liberal opposition.

“Usually, we sit back and wait for the Democrats to mess it up, but that’s not what’s happening,” Borges said. “They’re all organized, they’re raising money and they’re consistent with a message.”

Republicans, Borges said, need to make a positive case of why they are a better alternative to Democrats.

But Renacci’s public strategy mostly has been to embrace Trump and his policies, while trying to paint Brown as a career politician who is blocking Trump’s agenda, and who is too liberal for Ohio.

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Outside money sidelined

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At the Labor Day event in Lorain, Brown, falling back on an old line, warned that he and other Democrats will be outspent this election.

But actually, Brown’s fundraising is his clearest advantage in this election. Not counting affiliated political committees, Brown has reported raising $15.2 million this election cycle, as of the most recent campaign finance filing deadline. Renacci has raised about $6.2 million, $4 million of which he loaned himself.

Brown has put his money to work on TV and digital advertising, launching attack ads against Renacci in June, before Renacci's had a chance to introduce himself to voters on his own terms. Brown has reserved even more TV ads through Election Day, while Renacci so far has remained silent, other than to respond to Brown's initial attacks.

“I think everything he’s done has been terrific,” said Jerry Austin, a mostly retired Democratic strategist who’s worked on past U.S. Senate campaigns. “I’m not shy about criticizing Democratic candidates, but I think he’s run a perfect campaign.”

In July, Renacci and his allies reported having about $5 million in the bank, which should be enough for him to mount a competitive campaign. Trump recently traveled to Ohio to host a Renacci fundraiser, which is a needed financial shot in the arm at this stage of the race. But he's yet to show signs of deploying that money in a major way.

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Potential for coattail effects?

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Andrew J. Tobias, cleveland.com

Brown poses with (from left) Democratic congressional hopeful Ken Harbaugh, governor hopeful Richard Cordray and attorney general candidate Steve Dettelbach at the Lorain Labor Day event.

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Brown’s extensive campaign operation already is likely to help boost other Democratic candidates by targeting and mobilizing left-leaning voters. But if Renacci fails to close the race in the final weeks before the election, some Ohio Republicans privately fear that Brown will begin to funnel money to the state Democratic Party, which can help boost support for other races across ticket.

There’s a recent precedent for this. Two weeks before the November 2010 election, Republican Rob Portman, on his way to a double-digit win in the Senate race, transferred $250,000 to the Ohio Republican Party, campaign finance records show. He also donated maximum $11,395 contributions to each of the down-ticket Republican candidates, helping cement a Republican sweep that year and tightening the party’s grip on state politics for a decade.

Borges, who ran Republican Dave Yost’s 2010 state auditor campaign, said the late cash from Portman “really helped us get across the finish line.”

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National implications

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Paul Sancya

Brown speaks during the final day of the 2016 Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.

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The 2018 election is “do or die for the Ohio Democratic Party,” Rob Secaur, the executive director of the Ohio Republican Party, said in an email. He referenced buzz that Brown may run for president if he wins — something Brown has said he’s not interested in, even though he nearly became Hillary Clinton’s vice-presidential pick in 2016.

“Losing Sherrod Brown would be the nail in the coffin for a party that has a cavalcade of catastrophes over the last few election cycles,” Secaur said. “In addition, Sherrod’s dreams of a Presidential run in 2020 would be shattered. We look forward to doing both for Ohio Democrats on November 6th.”

But if Brown wins?

His endorsement would be heavily sought after for presidential candidates running in the Midwest. The presidential buzz also will pick up, Democrats acknowledge.

Beyond 2020 speculation, Eric Rosso, a Pennsylvania-based labor-affiliated political organizer, and veteran of Democratic campaigns in Ohio, said a Brown win could provide a progressive playbook that works in the Midwest.

“I hope the party will look at how successful he’s been throughout the years, and understand that progressive politics sells in Ohio, and that we start seeing people who identify as Sherrod Brown Democrats wanting to run in Ohio,” Rosso said.

Whaley, the Dayton mayor, said Brown’s focus on constituent services and retail politics, and his focus on issues important to Ohio, is what sets him apart. This approach helps him appeal to people who may not agree with him politically.

“If national folks want a takeaway, it’s that Ohio is a high-touch state, and Sherrod embodies that,” she said.

In an interview before his Labor Day speech in Lorain, Brown tested out lines he ended up using on stage. He said progressive politics can work in Ohio, if candidates focus on pocketbook issues.

“I think it takes talking about work, talking about wages. Talking about whose side government is on,” Brown said. “…In the administrations in Columbus or Washington, there’s no recognition of the dignity of work. There’s no acknowledgment of wage stagnation. And voters are going to respond to that.”