2016 Tour Down Under Stage 2 Preview

THE ROUTE

The difficult finishing circuit returns again this year, with pitches of 5–9% at different points and constant up and down action we can expect a fight with ramifications for GC, although not oh the level of tomorrow’s stage. Bonus seconds will be incredibly important here also, with the usual 10–6–4 on a finish line where overall contenders could win with a well timed attack.

THE FAVOURITES

OGE will again look to dominate, with Gerrans the obvious choice. However after him we still have very little idea of the other form riders, but based on their top level abilities, Lobato and Swift could hang in and take a good win.

The group of favourites depends massively on how hard the peloton pushes before the last 15 or so kilometres. A hard race increases the chances of Diego Ulissi, Cyril Gautier or even Adam Hansen, while an easier race could give Reijnen, Von Hoff or the alternate option of JJ Rojas.

Ordinarily Pelucchi’s name could be thrown about, but after squandering the perfect lead out in the criterium and finish five anda half minutes down yesterday, it’s fair to say he could lack form, be struggling in the heat, or both.

It is conceivable that the break makes it today, but not many riders have lost enough time, and major teams will want the bonus seconds for their GC contenders if possible.

***** -

**** -

*** Gerrans, Lobato

** Swift, Ulissi, Von Hoff, Reijnen

* Gautier, Hansen, The Break, Rojas

THE INTRIGUE

When will the finale start? How hard will the race be? Is timing everything?

This stage always throws up numerous possibilities, and looking through the history books it becomes obvious, 2011 was a sprint, 2012 a breakaway win, 2013 and unheralded and brilliantly timed punch from Tom-Jelte Slagter, 2014 a punch to the line, and 2015 saw a Lobato sprint, with timing still everything.

Even without being invested in the names contesting this race, the finishing circuit around Stirling, now traditional, provides a course where Griepel can finish second in one year, and Cadel Evans the next, and while not ultimately spectacular, it will be intriguing.

ONWARDS

Bonus seconds are always huge in the Tour Down Under, and this race will be no exception. A stage win or podium place here will be worth far more than the prize on the day for some, as will denying the major names of these bonus seconds.

The stage may also have ramifications for who teams trust at Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico, as both include multiple up and down stages that will still end in bunch or reduced gallops. At this stage of the season, leadership for many races can still be contested, especially with the concurrent race in San Luis.