Has anyone seen the old Conservative and Unionist Party lately? You know the one. It had a diverse membership, a clear voter base, an ideological homeland to call its own. It was a coherent, disciplined, drug-free, election-winning machine. Today it is none of those things. To the casual observer it appears to have morphed into the Monster Raving Tory Party. Is this a temporary descent into madness or are we watching the beginning of the end for the party of the British establishment?

There are two big reasons to think this is just a phase. For one, there is a leadership election taking place in troubled times. Candidates are keen to get those skeletons out of the closet before others do. A bit of class A for Gove and Stewart, class C for Raab and Hunt, and “I didn’t inhale” for Johnson.

They are also desperately trying to distinguish themselves in a crowded field of mostly unknowns (11 today but who knows tomorrow?). That means no teaching LGBT relationships in schools for McVey and Corbyn-baiting for Hancock. But, most of all, it means sounding more macho on Brexit than Farage or the other Screaming Lord Sutch contenders. Hard deal, no deal, no backstop deal, and now, prorogued parliament deal. Post-election, the hope is that the next leader will sound less Trumpish and rather more prime ministerial. Perhaps?

And, of course, there is the small matter of Brexit. We’ve known for some years that EU membership has divided the party. Thatcher fell out with Lawson in the 1980s over it. Major did the same with his “bastards” in the 1990s. Currently, the majority of party members want a hard Brexit as soon as and by any means possible. Many in the big business wing of the party want something much softer or no Brexit at all. The Tory press scents Euro-blood but the City wants to keep trading its eurobonds. We are now at the high point of this particular existential schism. So, when the deed is finally done, one way or another, Tory harmony will return. Maybe?

On the other hand, there is also much to suggest that this is no short-term crisis. Incoherence, recklessness and dysfunction may, in fact, have become the new normal. They haven’t won a decisive election victory for over three decades. In last month’s European elections, the party’s share of the vote dropped below 10 per cent. Polls suggest they are in danger of becoming the fourth party. Their ever-declining membership (now some 120,000) is increasingly elderly and inactive. The party is decidedly old media, while new-old-Labour is decisively new media. The party machine has run out of high-grade snake oil.

Who could succeed Theresa May as Conservative leader? Show all 9 1 /9 Who could succeed Theresa May as Conservative leader? Who could succeed Theresa May as Conservative leader? Boris Johnson Former foreign secretary Boris Johnson has long been hopeful, he previously stood in the leadership contest that followed the Brexit vote and has at many times since been thought to be maneuvering himself towards the goal. He remains a darling of the party's right wing, particularly those in the ERG, and is the most popular choice among Tory voters but his leadership bid would be fiercely opposed by many MPs PA Who could succeed Theresa May as Conservative leader? Michael Gove Environment secretary Michael Gove is another member who has long wanted to be leader. He has lately been known for rousing his party in the commons, his recent speeches on the Brexit deal and Labour's no confidence motion have overshadowed the Prime Minister's. He has been loyal to the Prime Minister, partly to shed his reputation as a backstabber who abandoned Boris Johnson to stand against him in the 2016 leadership election Getty Who could succeed Theresa May as Conservative leader? Dominic Raab Former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab has emerged as a favourite to be the Brexiteer candidate in a contest to succeed to Ms May. He displayed a grip on detail in his role as Brexit secretary. When asked recently if he would like to become prime minister he replied "never say never" Getty Who could succeed Theresa May as Conservative leader? Rory Stewart International development secretary Rory Stewart is pitching himself as the sensible candidate, promising to rule out both a second referendum and a no-deal Brexit. He was only recently promoted to the cabinet, previously serving as prisons minister, where he caught headlines with a pledge to resign if he could not reduce levels of violence within a year PA Who could succeed Theresa May as Conservative leader? Esther McVey The former work and pensions secretary announced that she will be standing for the leadership when May leaves. McVey is the first to explicitly state that she intends to stand. She resigned from the cabinet in protest over May's Brexit deal AFP/Getty Who could succeed Theresa May as Conservative leader? Sajid Javid Home secretary Sajid Javid is said to have a plan in place for a leadership race. He made headlines over Christmas when he declared that people smuggling over the English channel was a "major incident" and more recently when he revoked the citizenship of ISIS bride Shamima Begum. Son of a bus driver, he wants the Conservatives to be seen as the party of social mobility PA Who could succeed Theresa May as Conservative leader? Jeremy Hunt Foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt was recently thought to be the favourite in the event of a leadership race as he could sell himself as the man to unite the party. Critics worry that his long stint as health secretary could return to haunt him at a general election. He has reportedly been holding meetings with Tory MPs over breakfast to promote his leadership PA Who could succeed Theresa May as Conservative leader? Andrea Leadsom Following the Prime Minister's second defeat over her Brexit deal, Leader of the house Andrea Leadsom hosted a dinner party at which "leadership was the only topic of conversation", The Times heard. Leadsom ran against Theresa May in the 2016 leadership election before dropping out, allowing May to become Prime Minister AFP/Getty Who could succeed Theresa May as Conservative leader? Priti Patel Former international development secretary Priti Patel is thought to be positioning herself as a contender. One MP told The Independent "she knows she's from the right of the party, the part which is going to choose the next leader, so she's reminding everyone she's there." Patel left the government late in 2017 after it emerged that she had held undisclosed meetings with Israeli officials PA

The Conservatives, like all parties, always contained ideological differences and diverse constituents. However, in recent decades these splits have become more pronounced. In the 1950s, establishment-watchers such as Hugh Thomas and Anthony Sampson could trace the social ties that bound the Conservative Party together.

Whether working in the City, Westminster, the West End or BBC, the ruling class had much in common. A clear majority of those at the top went to one of nine Clarendon private schools such as Eton, Harrow or Westminster. They then went on to an Oxbridge college. Wherever they worked they joined the same private clubs and sat on each other’s boards.

Leap forward to the present and much has changed. Yes, you can find such networks dominating parts of the military, judiciary and City. But, the proportion of Clarendon-Oxbridge graduates has dropped considerably in most other leadership areas. In a 2014 study just 18 per cent of top CEOs and 12 per cent of The Sunday Times’ Rich List had studied at Oxbridge. In recent years, a third to half of FTSE 100 chief executives were born abroad. Far fewer of the top tiers now maintain their club memberships. In many leadership areas, heads change jobs every two or three years. Accountability is short-lived even as personal fortunes endure.

Four decades of turbo-charged globalisation and free markets have also fragmented the party’s constituent groups and ideological unity. In the long run, Thatcherite economic policies have benefited the south east. London-based financial services have grown several-fold while UK industry has withered. All other regions, including Tory shires, have experienced years of economic and community decline. It is not just Labour’s working-class voters who have felt abandoned. Britain’s richest have got considerably richer but key Conservative voter groups have not.

Meanwhile, the older values of “one nation Conservativism”, “gentlemanly capitalism”, “public service” and “national duty”, have all diminished. As more recent establishment-watchers Robert Peston and Owen Jones have noticed, those at the top scorn such quaint ideals. The establishment still votes Tory. But they now revere “personal enrichment”, “individualism” and “enlightened self-interest”.

Unfortunately, such principles are not good for maintaining institutions and that goes for the Tory party itself. And, as has been painfully apparent to the watching public, they have been driving Westminster politics ever since the 2016 referendum. It’s hard to see that changing any time soon, whoever takes May’s job.