Gravis Marketing has released a poll from one of two red states Democrats are trying to offense in 2019: Kentucky. The Commonwealth of Kentucky has taken a sharp turn to the right since Bill Clinton narrowly carried the state in 1992 and 1996. It voted for Donald Trump by nearly 30 points in 2016. Democrats have, however, won statewide races recently in Kentucky. Democrats won the 2015 Secretary of State and Attorney General races and have won a Gubernatorial race as recently as 2011. With an unpopular incumbent running for reelection, Democrats hope to regain some of the ground they have recently lost in Kentucky. Gravis Marketing’s new Kentucky poll shows Democrats have an uphill battle in 2019.

For the Gubernatorial race, Matt Bevin currently leads Andy Beshear 48%-42%. Beshear does considerably better with college educated voters (trailing 51%-49% among those with a bachelor’s degree and leading 55%-32% among those with a post-graduate education). The problem for Beshear is that there just aren’t many those voters in Kentucky. Bevin holds a 53%-32% lead among voters with a high school diploma and 51%-40% among those with “some college” education. 38% of the sample has a bachelor’s degree or higher compared to 62% without. The gender gap is evident as well with Beshear leading 47%-40% among women and trailing Bevin 57%-37% among men.

Democrats are also in jeopardy of losing the Attorney general race for the first time since the 1940’s. Former State House Speaker and State Attorney General Greg Stumbo trails Attorney and former University of Louisville football player Daniel Cameron 47%-36%.

Gravis Marketing also tested some 2020 matchups. Mitch McConnell leads former Lexington Mayor and 2016 Democratic Senate nominee Jim Gray 49%-41%. Donald Trump is in a much better position than McConnell leading Biden 57%-37%, Sanders 57%-35%, Warren 60%-28% and Buttigieg 60%-28%. Trump’s current approval rating in Kentucky is 60% with 37% disapproving. Nancy Pelosi has roughly the inverse of Trump’s numbers with only 30% approving and 62% disapproving of her job as Speaker.

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 741 Kentucky Voters was conducted June 11th through 12th and has a margin of error of ±3.6%. The survey was conducted using an online panel of cell phone users and live agents. This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be direction to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.

Kentucky (June 14, 2019)