Quota Within Quota in UP: Political Hot Potato That Can Backfire

Will the move benefit the BJP? There is no straight answer as the decision can go either way. Mayank Mishra The UP government is considering the idea of introducing a quota within the overall OBC quota for reservation in government jobs and educational institutions. | (Photo: Arnica Kalra/The Quint) Opinion Will the move benefit the BJP? There is no straight answer as the decision can go either way.

The Yogi Adityanath government in Uttar Pradesh is toying with the idea of carving out a quota within the overall OBC quota for reservation in government jobs and educational institutions. According to a Times of India report, a four-member social justice panel has recommended subdividing 79 OBC castes into three categories: Backward Class, More Backward Class and Most Backward Class. While the relatively dominant ones like Yadavs, Kurmis, Patels and Chaurasias have been recommended to be placed under the category of backward classes, with a provision of 7 percent (of the total of 27 percent) seats reserved for them, the relatively oppressed ones like Ghoshis, Nishads and Rajbhars have been put under the category of most backward classes (MBCs). As per the recommendation, the MBCs can enjoy a sub quota of 9 percent within the overall quota for the OBCs. The category of more backward classes will have 11 percent quota reserved for them. The more backward class category, according to the report, includes names like Gujjars, Sahus, Lodhs and Kushwahas.

Coming as it does before the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections, the recommendation, if accepted, is bound to have huge political ramifications.

The panel’s report is likely to be tabled in the ongoing session of the state Assembly.

Incidentally, the then BJP government had attempted a similar exercise in the state in 2002 but had to backtrack following all round opposition.

Will the Move Benefit the BJP Now?

There is no straight answer as the decision can go either way. And here is why:

Since Uttar Pradesh is estimated to have an OBC population of nearly 8 crore (45 percent of the state population), dividing such a large group into three categories, and that too to everyone’s satisfaction, is going to be an uphill task. There is no denying that some dominant OBC castes, Yadavs and Kurmis for instance, have cornered disproportionate share of reservation benefits. But since opportunities have been so limited, there is a large section even among the dominant caste groups who have missed the reservation bus. And reducing the reservation pie for them is bound to generate anxiety, leading to a possible backlash.

If pushed to the corner, there is bound to be consolidation among dominant groups. If that happens, the BJP will certainly be at a disadvantage. Will the BJP be able to deal with the combined fury of dominant OBCs? And the impact, let us note, will not be confined to Uttar Pradesh alone. Such a consolidation can alter political equations in many Hindi heartland states.

Let us remember that the pie – that is, government jobs – has been shrinking all these years. The rules of reservation apply to only 18 percent of all jobs in the country. Only a few thousand jobs are up for grabs every year using the reservation route. Since the material impact of the decision on intended beneficiaries (more backward and most backward classes) is going to be negligible, there is bound to be more disappointment than euphoria.

Data suggests that different OBC groups have been voting differently for a long time. All driven by apathy for or affinity towards proximate caste groups. Yadavs and Kurmis, for instance, have rarely voted together. The same applies to most other OBC groups. The quota within quota is likely to change that, disturbing many existing political equations. Since we all will enter an unchartered territory, the BJP can certainly not hope to be the sole beneficiary of the emerging trend.

Finally, the renewed caste debate that is bound to follow once the decision is announced will put all votaries of Hindu unity on the back foot. Remember Mandal puncturing the Kamandal rath in the 1990s? There is a danger of Mandal II doing the same all over again.

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