The Brexit Party surge is fading, according to an exclusive BMG Research opinion poll for The Independent.

The poll puts the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck on 28 per cent and 27 per cent respectively, if a general election were held today, with the Liberal Democrats on 18 per cent and Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party on 14 per cent.

The Conservatives are up two points since last month, with Labour unchanged and the Lib Dems up one – but the Brexit Party has lost four points, suggesting that the effect of coming top in the European elections in May is wearing off.

The Lib Dems, on the other hand, who also received a boost in the European elections, are holding on to their share of the vote. The Green Party, which, like the Lib Dems, benefited from a clear pro-Remain stance in the elections to the European parliament, are unchanged on 6 per cent.

Mr Farage’s old party, Ukip, are on 2 per cent, while Change UK, now called the Independent Group for Change and reduced to just five MPs in the House of Commons, is on 1 per cent.

Peterborough by-election: Brexit Party loses out to Labour Show all 14 1 /14 Peterborough by-election: Brexit Party loses out to Labour Peterborough by-election: Brexit Party loses out to Labour Peterborough By Election Independent candidate Bobby Elmo Smith watches the by-election count on June 07, 2019 in Peterborough, England. Brexit Party candidate Mike Greene is looking to become the Brexit Partys first MP to Westminster in the Peterborough by-election, which was triggered following the removal of former Labour MP Fiona Onasanya by a recall petition. Getty Peterborough by-election: Brexit Party loses out to Labour Peterborough By Election 2 Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage in Newborough in Peterborough prior to votes being counted in the Peterborough by-election. PA Peterborough by-election: Brexit Party loses out to Labour Peterborough By Election 3 Lisa Forbes of the Labour Party accepts her win for the local seat after all votes are in and counted at the Kingsgate Conference Centre in Peterborough. AFP/Getty Images Peterborough by-election: Brexit Party loses out to Labour Peterborough By Election 4 Votes are counted at the Kingsgate Conference Centre in Peterborough, England on June 6, 2019. - A local by-election was triggered when Peterborough's former MP Fiona Onasanya was sacked by her constituents in the first successful re-call petition prompting a by-election AFP/Getty Images Peterborough by-election: Brexit Party loses out to Labour Peterborough By Election 5 Votes are counted at the Kingsgate Conference Centre in Peterborough, England on June 6, 2019. - A local by-election was triggered when Peterborough's former MP Fiona Onasanya was sacked by her constituents in the first successful re-call petition prompting a by-election. AFP/Getty Images Peterborough by-election: Brexit Party loses out to Labour Peterborough By Election 6 Votes are counted at the Kingsgate Conference Centre in Peterborough, England on June 6, 2019. - A local by-election was triggered when Peterborough's former MP Fiona Onasanya was sacked by her constituents in the first successful re-call petition prompting a by-election. AFP/Getty Images Peterborough by-election: Brexit Party loses out to Labour Peterborough By Election 7 Lisa Forbes of the Labour Party accepts her win for the local seat after all votes are in and counted at the Kingsgate Conference Centre in Peterborough. AFP/Getty Images Peterborough by-election: Brexit Party loses out to Labour Peterborough By Election 8 Lisa Forbes of the Labour Party accepts her win for the local seat after all votes are in and counted at the Kingsgate Conference Centre in Peterborough. AFP/Getty Images Peterborough by-election: Brexit Party loses out to Labour Peterborough By Election 9 Labour Party faithful cheer as Lisa Forbes accepts her win for the local seat after all votes are in and counted at the Kingsgate Conference Centre in Peterborough. AFP/Getty Images Peterborough by-election: Brexit Party loses out to Labour Peterborough By Election 10 Labour Party faithful cheer as Lisa Forbes accepts her win for the local seat after all votes are in and counted at the Kingsgate Conference Centre in Peterborough. AFP/Getty Images Peterborough by-election: Brexit Party loses out to Labour Peterborough By Election 11 Alan "Howling Laud" Hope of the Official Monster Raving Loony Party (L) and party faithful arrive at the Kingsgate Conference Centre in Peterborough. AFP/Getty Images Peterborough by-election: Brexit Party loses out to Labour Peterborough By Election 12 Alan "Howling Laud" Hope of the Official Monster Raving Loony Party (C) and party faithful arrive at the Kingsgate Conference Centre in Peterborough. AFP/Getty Images Peterborough by-election: Brexit Party loses out to Labour Peterborough By Election 13 Mike Greene (C) of the Brexit Party confers with party members at the Kingsgate Conference Centre in Peterborough, England on June 6, 2019. - A local by-election was triggered when Peterborough's former MP Fiona Onasanya was sacked by her constituents in the first successful re-call petition prompting a by-election. AFP/Getty Images Peterborough by-election: Brexit Party loses out to Labour Peterborough By Election 14 By-election votes are counted at the KingsGate Centre in Peterborough. REUTERS

The poll suggests that some supporters of Mr Farage’s new party could have returned to the Conservatives because of the prospect of Boris Johnson becoming leader, promising to take Britain out of the EU, “deal or no deal”, on 31 October.

The survey, which was carried out last week, will also be seized on by supporters of Jeremy Corbyn as evidence that Labour support is holding up despite internal criticism of the leader’s compromise policy on Brexit.

On the issue of Brexit itself, BMG repeated the question asked in the 2016 referendum – “Should the UK remain a member of the EU, or leave the EU?” – and found a six-point lead for Remain. Remain was on 53 per cent, Leave on 47 per cent, after a “squeeze” question (“Which side would you say are you leaning towards most?”) and excluding “don’t knows” and refused.

The poll also found voters would rather scrap Brexit or hold a second referendum than face a no-deal Brexit at Halloween, as The Independent reported over the weekend.

The survey also found that Mr Johnson was preferred as new Tory leader and prime minister by 28 per cent of the general public, compared with 22 per cent for Jeremy Hunt, although 37 per cent would opt for “neither of them”, while 13 per cent did not know.

But the poll found that more voters have a “negative view” of Mr Corbyn than of Mr Hunt, Mr Johnson or Theresa May.

In addition, they are less likely to think that he is “capable of managing Brexit”; that he is a “strong leader”; or that he is “trustworthy”.

Only when people are asked if he “understands the problems of people like me” does Mr Corbyn do slightly better than his Conservative rivals – and only 24 per cent agree, while 52 per cent disagree.