By Stephen Stirling | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

Thinking of jetting down to Florida with the kids for a quick vacation?

Don't bother — we're already there.

New Jersey and the rest of the East Coast have been locked in a relentlessly humid and stormy weather pattern for the past month, bringing major flooding to many areas and ruining beach trips on the regular.

And we're not alone. Much of the Northern Hemisphere has been stuck along with us. From California to the Middle East, the weather you had a month ago is largely the weather you have today — and that might not change anytime soon.

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The Local Players

Our current stretch of humid and unsettled weather has primarily been fed by a constant stream of moisture coming off the Atlantic Ocean.

That moisture is steered clockwise around a large, semi-permanent area of high pressure known as the Bermuda high, a common meteorological feature in the summer and fall that plays a large role in steering storms across the Atlantic.

The problem is, there's also a huge ridge of high pressure on the west coast, creating an unusual trough in the east. This has acted as a net for any low pressure systems moving across North America, which then produce rain and thunderstorms across the east when it meets the tropical moisture being funneled off the ocean.

"It's more common to see this in the winter time," said Alex Carne, a meteorologist at WeatherWorks in Hackettstown. "Any disturbance that moves through has easy access to that juicy tropical moisture coming off the ocean."

Steering winds in the atmosphere tend to be far more sluggish in the summer, allowing low pressure to linger while being fed a constant diet of moisture from its counterpart in the Atlantic.

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A global traffic jam

New Jersey isn't alone in the Groundhog Day effect.

The weather pattern across much of the Northern Hemisphere hasn't changed much in the past month. From the Western United States to Middle-Eastern countries like Oman, a stagnant weather pattern has caused a global logjam, locking in particular weather for various regions.

In California, arid conditions have spawned one of the worst wildfire seasons on record. Iceland has experienced a wet and cool summer. And across much of Europe and the Middle East, scorching heat has been the norm.

For New Jersey, it's meant unrelenting humidity punctuated by a consistent threat of flooding rain.

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Precision flooding

Parts of the Garden State have received more than three months worth of rain in the past 30 days, according to National Weather Service estimates.

"New Jersey is suddenly Florida," said David Robinson, the state climatologist at Rutgers University. "In some places we're talking about close to 15-inch rainfall totals in the last four weeks, with much of the state receiving at least ten."

The periodic rain has produced major flash flooding events across the state in recent weeks, but Robinson said the localized nature of the downpours has spared the state, so far, from any major river flooding.

In fact, some of the most severe events have only affected a few square miles of the state, unlucky enough to find themselves under a near stationary thunderstorm. Here are some of the most pronounced events:

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July 27

In late July, thunderstorms pounded Middlesex, Salem and Cumberland counties, creating a commuting nightmare as major highways like Route 1 turned into rivers.

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August 11

On Saturday, as much as 5 inches of rain fell in the Little Falls area, sweeping away cars and inundating homes.

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August 12

On Sunday, storms dropped nearly four inches of rain over a tiny area in southern Ocean County.

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August 13

On Monday, storms spawned waterspouts off the Jersey Shore and dropped nearly 8 inches of rain on Brick Township in just a few hours. On Tuesday, Gov. Phil Murphy declared a state of emergency in five counties hit hardest by the flooding.

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Jerry McCrea | The Star-Ledger

Tropical threat looms

While the tropical Atlantic has remained quiet so far this year, Robinson said it needs to be watched.

"We're fortunate a tropical system hasn't jumped up the coast," he said. "As long as this pattern stays in place we’re particularly vulnerable to any tropical system coming out of the Caribbean."

The clockwise airflow around the Bermuda High can steer nearby tropical storms and hurricanes up the East Coast.

A similar pattern allowed Tropical Storm Irene to pound New Jersey in late August 2011, capping off what remains the wettest month in state history.

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Is the end near?

While New Jersey should see a break from the rain Wednesday and Thursday, forecasters say don't expect the pattern to end anytime soon.

"I don't see a good reason for it to change anytime soon," Carne, of WeatherWorks, said. "We'll get breaks, like we'll see this week, but they'll only come through a day or two at a time."

Unless told otherwise, assume the August forecast is this: Humid, with a chance of thunderstorms.

Stephen Stirling may be reached at sstirling@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @sstirling. Find him on Facebook.

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