Dear Readers,

I must say it has been a while, after my last post on here I realised how much hard work goes into writing a blog and decided to stick to twitter mainly. Blogging which is usually considered an easy task and frowned upon by many – I can confirm is not easy. Especially not easy when you are working logging hours and pushing your mind to the limit everyday.

Anyway… after numerous requests here I am.

Interesting times at the moment. My previous calls were close to correct, 3.25-3.75 level in USGG10YR, SPX levels bla bla bla. But I’ve not come here to write about the alpha I have created in recent times. I’ve returned to write about what I think is to come.

I have listed some forecasts on twitter but I will write them out here too. Despite huge jobless claims in the US and the real economy being beaten up by Covid-19 I honestly do not believe what just happened in equity markets was a “crash” nor a “recession” nor a “technical recession”. I see it as a huge correction. The largest correction we have ever seen. Blood on the streets should not scare you, it provides massive opportunity. Opportunity we have not seen for years.

I guess what this coronaplunge has shown me is that the stock market is driven by a handful of stocks (MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG & FB).

Current Holdings: LULU, BA, TSLA, KO, AAPL, AMZN, JPM, FB, MCD, SAFM, MELI, CC, AXSM, TLRD, QRVO, XELA, CVET & NFLX.

I expect the Volatility to return to the “normal” 12 area… Dow to touch 30,000 and SPX 3,300 by year end. WTI oil I still see potentially touching $12-14 PB.

The Fed have helped the stock market not the economy.

A little bit about Covid… Covid remains to be a continuous threat to the global economy – there are reports of treatments discharging patients in under a week. The virus is awful and it is a shame it is killing people however we have to face reality and that the virus isn’t killing a massive % of the world. The only thing it is killing is the economy as shown in data like retail sales, unemployment claims and commercial and industrial loans. I do not see the virus dying off quickly – possibly being prominent till June time. However, I expect to see a gradual return to norm whilst the virus dies off.

This week looks like it could be a big week. US indexes are nearing the end of a wedge formed in Feb-Mar 2020. Looks like the Dow could be looking at 25,000 this week.

If you have any questions or want any views on anything specific please get in touch – preferably via Twitter.