The coronavirus pandemic has cast a harsh spotlight on just how (un)prepared Europe is to deal with a pandemic. As the devastating scenes in Italy unfolded, countries across the bloc scrambled to figure out whether they are charting the same course as their ill-fated neighbor.

POLITICO has unpicked the data on the virus's spread and on each country's health care system to look for clues as to what will happen next.

Viral spread

Mapping the number of confirmed coronavirus cases per country over time (starting from the day when a country reached 100 confirmed cases to leave out the phase before the outbreak really took off), shows how superficially similar the outbreaks are in different countries. To help distinguish the curves showing the growth of infections in different countries, they are shown on a logarithmic scale. Italy is well ahead of the rest of Europe with 63,927 cases, just over 30 days since it reached 100 cases.

But worryingly for Spain, its outbreak is on a steeper trajectory than Italy, with a higher number of confirmed cases at the beginning of this week (21 days after it reached the 100th case), than Italy had after the same period.

One major caveat with the data is that many countries are not testing everyone who has symptoms. Some have also changed their testing strategies as the sheer number of potential cases grew. The number of cases is certainly higher in all countries than those recorded officially, but just how much higher will differ between them.

Death toll

A more reliable number is the number of deaths from COVID-19. Italy, unsurprisingly, is clearly ahead of the rest but again, concerningly for Spain, the number of deaths is growing faster there compared to the comparable point in Italy's outbreak.

On the other hand, despite a high number of cases, Germany appears to be in a much better position, with just 94 deaths.

Critical care

The number of critical care beds — which allow for patients needing artificial ventilation to be treated — a country's health system has available is emerging as crucial to the success of their response to the outbreak. While initial data from China showed that only a small proportion of people with the disease were classed as critical, with about another 14 percent classed as severe, hospitals in many countries have already been feeling the pressure. Most recently, one London hospital had to declare a “critical incident” after temporarily running out of critical care beds.

The data below for the number of critical care beds is the sum of intermediate care (IMCU) beds and intensive care (ICU) beds, from the most recent comprehensive study in 2012. A lot may have changed in the intervening period — austerity measures in Italy for example have led to cuts in health care services — but these appear to be the most recent data available covering all of the EU27 plus the U.K.

They reveal massive differences between countries. Germany is by far the best equipped, with 29.2 beds per 100,000 people. Luxembourg, Austria and Romania are in similarly strong positions, with over 20 beds per 100,000 people. On the other end of the spectrum is Portugal with a meager 4.2 beds per 100,000 people. The Netherlands, Slovenia, Finland, Greece and Sweden follow closely behind, all with fewer than 6.5 critical care beds per 100,000 people. The U.K. is only slightly better on 6.6.

Care capacity

Another way to assess the preparedness of different countries is to look at the number of cases per critical care bed and hospital beds overall (these figures come from Eurostat with the most recent data from 2017). By both measures, Spain fares particularly badly. It has 8.9 confirmed cases per critical care bed — higher than any other EU country. In terms of overall hospital beds, it has 286 cases per 1,000 beds.Italy is similarly struggling with 8.5 confirmed cases per critical care bed and 332 confirmed cases per 1,000 hospital beds overall.

In terms of both critical care and overall beds, Germany appears to be in a strong position to deal with the outbreak as the numbers of cases inevitably climb. The country is at a similar stage to Spain in that it is over 20 days since the 100th confirmed case, but in contrast to Spain, Germany has just 1.3 confirmed cases per critical care bed, and 47 confirmed cases per 1,000 hospital beds.

Fatality rate

Just as case numbers are difficult to accurately chart, due to differences in levels of testing across the bloc, so too is the fatality rate in each country. A higher recorded fatality rate can be driven by a high number of undetected cases, simply because of limited testing. Nevertheless, plotting the fatality rate and the number of critical care beds per 100,000 people across the EU and the U.K., appears to indicate that countries with more critical care beds fare better than their less well-equipped counterparts.

The data are messy, and the caveats outlined above mean we must apply a hefty pinch of salt, but plotting each country suggests that those with fewer critical care beds per 100,000 people have a higher mortality rate.

Flattening the curve

Of the countries with relatively few critical care beds, the U.K. and the Netherlands seem to be on similar courses in terms of the number of cases and deaths. Both appear to be charting a better trajectory than Spain or Italy, but as the number of cases continues to rise, the relatively small number of critical care beds per 100,000 people in both these countries may pose significant challenges once case numbers inevitably rise steeply.

The tiny nation of Luxembourg has the highest number of confirmed coronavirus cases per capita in Europe, but the health ministry in Luxembourg doesn’t appear to be overly concerned, having recently taken in several patients from a neighboring region of France.

The spread of the virus has in some cases defied traditional assumptions about health care capacity in different countries, with nations that were seen to have relatively robust health systems experiencing hundreds of deaths. While it is difficult to accurately project where countries will be in the coming weeks, the available data suggest that Spain in particular is on a dangerous trajectory, with the potential to overtake Italy as the worst-hit nation in Europe.