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The government has largely backed off the key justification for deficit spending: the stimulus argument. It is now talking about long-term “investments,” which the Liberals maintain will eventually create growth. However, program spending as a percentage of GDP is set to rise from 12.9 to 14.6 per cent next year. In effect, the budget is creating a long-term structural deficit, with ongoing obligations that are nearly impossible to cut back. Furthermore, much of the relatively modest $11.9 billion identified as “infrastructure” spending is actually for social and environmental programs, not productivity-enhancing construction. And how much will the quality of new infrastructure be sacrificed by local politics, the push for “shovel-ready” projects and the move away from private sector involvement?

One mitigating factor in the budget is an unusually large $6 billion contingency fund. On the other hand, significant committed spending has not yet been accounted for. Then there are the risks of interest rate increases as the economy strengthens and of a recession, which happens on average every eight years.

Maybe it will turn out well. Perhaps oil prices will recover rapidly, global growth will increase, the U.S. will maintain its buoyancy, GDP will surge in Canada, but somehow interest rates will not rise too much and we will avoid a recession. If it does not work out, the government can blame the one-percenters and further hike job-killing taxes. Mind you, even in a sunny world, there are still the interest payments to make and an additional $113 billion in debt for our children to pay off. Just remember that whatever excuse is given for all this deficit spending, it cannot be justified by a faltering economy.

Joe Oliver is the former minister of finance.