Successfully replacing a fixture at quarterback can be a treacherous task, and this is something Stanford has learned firsthand in the not-so-distant past.

When Andrew Luck left the Farm following the 2011 season, the Cardinal focused on two options: Josh Nunes and Brett Nottingham -- both four-star recruits coming out of high school. It was assumed one of these two quarterbacks would grab the reigns of a talented offense and power forward in 2012.

Twelve months later, David Shaw thrust the Rose Bowl trophy into the confetti-filled sky. All had gone according to the original plan, right?

Not even close. It turned out neither Nunes nor Nottingham was Stanford's answer at quarterback. The former won the starting job coming out of camp, but he struggled through many of the season's first nine games. The Cardinal failed to score an offensive touchdown in two of them, and both ended as losses.

That's when a third option, a dark horse named Kevin Hogan, smashed onto the scene. He replaced Nunes in November. Hogan guided Stanford to six straight wins. That included a victory at Autzen Stadium, and it finished with that Rose Bowl championship.

Three years and two more trips to Pasadena later, Hogan's college career is over, so a familiar scenario repeats itself: The Cardinal must again find the successor for one of the best quarterbacks in program history.

They just hope the process is more linear than last time. Shaw might enjoy re-watching 2012 film now, but that season's dramatic twists and turns under center certainly made him lose some sleep.

On paper, Stanford seems set with a sound succession plan at quarterback entering 2016. The Cardinal signed Ryan Burns in 2013, so he will be a senior with two years of eligibility remaining. Keller Chryst joined Stanford the following season, so he can potentially play for three more years.

Those are the two clear-cut favorites to succeed Hogan, but there is now a third who will be taking repetitions alongside them. That is incoming freshman K.J. Costello, the nation's second-ranked 2016 pocket passer, whom the Cardinal signed Wednesday.

Since even Luck redshirted his true freshman season, it's likely Costello will, too -- Shaw hinted as much on signing day -- but that is not a knock on his talent. It's simply a byproduct of the Cardinal's complex pro-style playbook, which confronts new quarterbacks with a steep learning curve.

"You look at our quarterback of the future in K.J. Costello," Shaw said.

Burns and Chryst are the realistic options for the present. Physically, they look like carbon copies of each other: Both are 6-foot-5 and about 230 pounds. Their speed is nearly identical -- though Burns edged Chryst in the 40-yard dash the last time it was measured.

Chryst might have been more polished entering Stanford. He guided a pro-style offense across the street at Palo Alto High School, and his father, Geep Chryst, has coached quarterbacks in the NFL for several years. Burns, meanwhile, ran a triple-option attack prior to college, so he's faced a bigger adaptation challenge.

"I think I've matured a lot," Burns said. "I came in as an immature kid. I've learned the offense. It's been coming along. I'm a lot more comfortable in the scheme, just processing everything and compartmentalizing different things."

Chryst is going through the same digestion process, and he says that Burns, Hogan, quarterbacks coach Tavita Pritchard, and his father all pitch in with regular help.

"It's one continual process," Chryst said. "Throughout the whole past season, I treated every day like I was the starting quarterback."

And now we're delving into the offseason that will determine who will actually be the starting quarterback. Chryst was Hogan's backup this past season -- he even delivered a pancake block in non-garbage time in an early game against Arizona -- but Shaw told the media not to expect a decision until about 10 days before the Sept. 2 season opener at the soonest.

"Both guys can go out there and operate the game plan," he said. "To what extent? We're going to find out. We're going to give them a great opportunity this spring to really get out there and play, but in training camp, we're going to overload them. We're going to see how much they can take."

When the dust settles, Stanford will have a new starting quarterback for 2016, and it will also have optimism regarding its longer-term future because of Costello's presence. The succession plan is set. Now, the Cardinal must execute it.

"Both [Keller and I] are similar guys with pretty big arms," Burns said. "We're both pretty good quarterbacks. Whoever comes out on top, I think the team will be in good hands."