A few weeks ago, when the Pirates got swept by the Cardinals, while also losing Gerrit Cole and Francisco Cervelli to the DL the same weekend, I noted that the Pirates might have to be a seller this summer, as their playoff odds has dropped down to 14%, and it was looking like this might not be their season. Well, in the two weeks since I wrote that post, their playoff odds have continued their freefall.

As it stands this morning, we’re projecting the Pirates to finish at 80-82, and with the Cubs, Nationals, and Giants all looking like they’ll finish north of 90 wins, that leaves the Mets, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Marlins all looking like Wild Card contenders, each with expected totals between 85-90 wins. To make it into the Wild Card game, the Pirates would have to leapfrog over three of those four teams; that would require them to play at over a .600 clip the rest of the season, most likely, and this doesn’t look like a team that is likely to go on that kind of sustained run.

So barring a miraculous turnaround over the next month, the Pirates are going to be sellers. According to the rumor mill, teams are already kicking the tires on Mark Melancon and Francisco Liriano, and as the deadline draws closer, it’s easy to imagine interest growing in the team’s other contract-year role players like David Freese, Neftali Feliz, and Sean Rodriguez. But with the team looking like a likely seller, attention has turned to a less-likely trade target, with speculation mounting that perhaps now is the time for the Pirates to trade Andrew McCutchen.

On the one hand, I can see why Pirates fans have begun to wonder if this is the time to move their franchise player. McCutchen is in the midst of the worst year of his career, and his struggles are part of the reason for the team’s disappointing first half. There’s also an inevitability to McCutchen’s exit from Pittsburgh, as he’s set to hit the free agent market after the 2018 season, and it’s nearly impossible to imagine the Pirates paying market price for a 32 year old with his track record. Unless he decides to give the Pirates the largest hometown discount in MLB history, they’re going to have to trade him at some point. And with Austin Meadows crushing Double-A pitching as a 21 year old, it’s not impossible to imagine that the team could have McCutchen’s replacement ready by 2017, making an earlier trade than expected more palatable.

But despite having a few arrows pointing in the direction of trading McCutchen, I don’t think this is the right time for the Pirates to move their best player.

Acknowledging the obvious, McCutchen’s current struggles would mean that any mid-season trade of McCutchen would be selling low on a guy who was, before this season started, seen as one of the most valuable assets in all of baseball. If the Pirates put him on the block, it would be taken as a sign that they’re concerned that this rough stretch isn’t just a slump, and that the Pirates would be looking to get off the McCutchen train before his value plummets even further. If the team that watches him everyday isn’t confident that he can turn this around and get back to MVP-levels, then the offers are likely to reflect a similar pessimism, and the Pirates would have to sell McCutchen from a position where both sides were assuming that he was a diminished asset.

There are times when you just have to accept that there probably isn’t a rebound coming and get what you can before the value decreases further. The Rockies got to that point with Troy Tulowitzki last summer, and are likely content that they made the right evaluation in moving their franchise player before his value sunk even more, for instance. But you also don’t want to overreact to every bad half-season of a star player’s career and move him prematurely; players can and do bounce back from similar struggles, and McCutchen’s track record suggests he should have a strong enough second half to rebuild some of his trade value.

To trade him in advance of an expected bounce back, you’d have to be overwhelmed by an offer that values McCutchen as if he’s already rebuilt that value. Looking around the league, though, I don’t know who would make that kind of offer, especially considering that a prospective buyer would likely be interested in talking about an extension in order to give up the kind of talent that they’d have to send to Pittsburgh to make the trade happen.

So what contenders would have the kinds of prospects the Pirates would want, the financial ability to at least try to negotiate an extension with McCutchen, and an opening in center field?

The Astros could be a fit, but they already have a stuggling center fielder with a strong track record who should be expected to bounce back themselves, and Carlos Gomez has hit well enough in June that I’d imagine they’d probably stick with what they have instead of paying a high price to land McCutchen.

The Nationals could use a center field upgrade and have some elite young talents on the farm system, but they also just committed nearly $400 million in future salaries to Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, and probably have to at least look like they’re going to try and make a run at Bryce Harper in a few years; acquiring and extending McCutchen would be a tacit admission that they were out on Harper, and they probably don’t want to do that just yet.

The Giants could use an outfielder, and McCutchen certainly fits the bill as their kind of player, but they probably don’t have the kinds of young talent the Pirates would be looking for. The Dodgers are always seen as a fit for every high-end player who hits the market, but if they resisted paying the price for Cole Hamels last summer, I’m not sure why they’d pivot and overpay for McCutchen this summer. The Red Sox could use a left fielder and certainly have the farm system to land McCutchen, but with Andrew Benintendi on the way, I’m guessing they’re less interested in blocking out left field long-term.

There just isn’t a natural fit with a team that would want to pay a premium to acquire McCutchen right now, and without a team paying a price that reflects McCutchen’s ability to bounce back, the Pirates would be potentially selling quite low on one of the best players in franchise history. If you’re going to move a guy of that stature, you have to make sure it’s because it makes your team better in the long-term, and moving McCutchen at a time of diminished value makes it less likely that they’d get the kind of return that would make it worthwhile.

At this point, the only real reason to move McCutchen is if you think this isn’t a slump. If this is the beginning of the end, and he’s going to age like Andruw Jones, then yeah, take what you can get this summer. But it seems premature to think that McCutchen can’t bounce back from this, and if the Pirates are reasonably confident that he’s still a star player just going through a rough patch, then keeping him is the better play. Let him rebuild his value in the second half, take stock of the team’s 2017 odds once they have a better idea of what their roster will look like, and listen to offers this winter, moving him only if you get blown away with a great offer.

If he’s going to play better, the team would likely get as much or more for him this winter or next summer as they would by dealing him now, so there shouldn’t be a rush to move him just yet. Unless the Pirates are convinced that he’s going down the Tulowitzki path, they’re better off keeping him around for at least another half season, and then putting him on the blocks after he’s reminded everyone that he’s still one of the best players in the game.