The shooting in Virginia Beach last week, which left 12 people dead and four others injured, was the deadliest of 2019. It was also, according to the Gun Violence Archive, the 37th mass shooting event this year to result in two or more fatalities. When it comes to gun violence, America remains an ugly outlier among developed countries: Gun homicide rates in the U.S. are 25 times higher than any other high-income nation, and while the U.S. has less than 5% of the world’s population, its citizens have as much as 50% of the civilian-owned firearms on the planet. And mass shootings are just one part of the problem: According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, nearly 40,000 Americans died by gun violence in 2017, the highest number recorded, with the majority of those — nearly 24,000 — being deaths by suicide.

But gun control advocates have reason for at least a sliver of optimism: Public sentiment is finally changing around the issue. According to Pew Research Center, for the first time in 10 years, more Americans support controlling gun ownership (52% ) than support protecting gun rights (44%). Moreover, gun control advocacy groups were more mobilized in the 2018 election than pro-gun groups.

The gun control movement was largely catalyzed after the 1999 shooting at Columbine High School. Since that tragedy, we’ve seen a spate of advocacy groups spring up, including Everytown for Gun Safety, Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America, Giffords Courage to Fight Gun Violence, and Sandy Hook Promise. (We’ve also, and not coincidentally, seen a spate of atrocities, with, by some accounts an average of one mass shooting per week in the years since then.) Through their outreach and legislative efforts, these organizations have helped change the national dialogue about guns. They’ve also arrived as a much-needed counterbalance to the goliath of the gun rights movement: the National Rifle Organization.

For most of the 1980s, ’90s, and early 2000s, the NRA dominated the gun debate. A multidimensional, politically sophisticated organization, the NRA features a lobbying arm, a campaign finance group, a membership team, and more. No gun control advocacy group came close to matching the NRA’s political power. The NRA outspends gun control organizations in federal lobbying by a factor of six to one. Over the past five years, according to Opensecrets.org, the NRA spent an average of $12 million on federal lobbying, while gun control groups spent an average of just under $2 million.

For the first time, the campaign political activity of gun control groups swamped that of the NRA in the 2018 cycle.

The NRA is often credited with helping to defeat an assault weapons ban in 2013, and preventing federal research regarding guns and gun violence. This has all had a huge effect on U.S. culture: Today, 42% of Americans live in a household with a gun, and 72% of Americans say they have fired a gun at some point in their lives. Among gun owners, protection is the primary reason they give for owning weapons.

But the tides appear to be changing. For the first time, the campaign political activity of gun control groups swamped that of the NRA in the 2018 cycle. What’s more, the gun control advocacy movement has morphed into a multi-headed behemoth capable of challenging the NRA in the legislative, judicial, and state politics arenas, and advocating for stricter gun laws with alacrity and sophistication not seen before in the gun control movement.

Many gun control groups were created in response to specific gun violence events. Notable among these are the organizations created by Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, herself a victim of gun violence, whose Giffords PAC spent nearly $18 million in the 2018 election cycle in direct and soft money expenditures. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s Everytown for Gun Safety and its super PAC, Independence USA spent another $70 million in 2018 supporting candidates who support gun control.

Their efforts appear to be working. Public support for curtailing gun access is increasing. A recent poll found near unanimous support for universal background checks, finding that 97% of Americans support the measure. At least 15 Republican candidates with A-ratings from the NRA in 2018 lost their House bids, in part due to spending and campaigning from gun control groups.

We can also see evidence that gun control has become ingrained in the party politics of our era by looking at the 2020 presidential candidates. Not only are nearly all the two dozen or so Democratic candidates talking about gun control, they are relatively unified in their positions. The Democratic party has never seen such unity on this issue. As recently as 2016, Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders held opposing positions on gun control (Clinton favored strict gun control, Sanders favors limited gun rights). In 2008, Barack Obama sent mailers to voters in Florida assuring them his unwavering support for the Second Amendment.

Perhaps because of the combination of American gun culture and the high number of deaths by firearms, Americans are strongly divided about the role government should play in curtailing gun ownership. While a majority (57%) say gun ownership should be more restricted, the issue is heavily partisan with 80% of Democrats — but only 28% of Republicans — favoring more gun control.

Above all else, we have young people to thank for this upswell in activism. The students who survived the 2018 shooting in Parkland, Florida at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, have been unusually organized. Less than two months after the shooting at their high school, the students organized the March For Our Lives demonstration in Washington, D.C.,that reportedly attracted more than 1 million participants.

After the Sandy Hook shooting killed 20 first graders, a primary narrative of the gun control movement has been centered on the public safety of children; since Parkland, the narrative is being told by children. As those kids — a vast majority of whom favor tighter gun restrictions — become voters, their influence over the narrative expands. The NRA’s response to mass shooting events has been to fight fire with fire, insisting that more “good guys” with guns can help keep people safe. While that message resonates among ardent gun supporters, it seems gun control advocates have finally found a messaging — and political strategy — of their own.