Numerous Conservative MPs have stated they will back Theresa May in tonight’s confidence vote. Dissatisfaction with the prime minister has been festering for months within the Conservative party and will be put to the test by a vote on whether or not to replace her as leader.

May only has to win a majority by just one vote in order to secure her premiership for another year. And as The Spectator’s political reporter James Forsyth explained:

In normal times, a hundred MPs voting against a leader would be devasting. But these are not normal times. A minister who knows the Tory party better than anyone predicts that she’ll win despite 100 plus voting against her, but that will still strengthen her overall given her current position.

Forsyth added on Twitter:

Spoken to 3 MPs I have long had down as ‘no confidence’ swing votes—one minister, one former and one backbencher—and all say they are voting May. But, interestingly, all want her to go soon after March 29 — James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) December 12, 2018

Of course, the vote is difficult to predict and this is hardly scientific accuracy, but the general sense gleaned from those in amongst the action is that May will win tonight – even if only by a slim margin.


Forsyth’s point is, therefore, a crucial one. The likelihood of May resigning at any point is very remote. And so if May wins tonight there is still no foreseeable way forward for Brexit. The EU have already emphatically stated that they will not accept further renegotiations. And Parliament has already signaled that its unwilling to pass her deal in its current form. May is stubbornly refusing to entertain “no deal,” which is a break from her previous rhetoric.


This leaves two major means of intervention in the House of Commons (1) another Brexit referendum or (2) a general election. The former carries the risk of no Brexit at all while the latter could lead to a government under Jeremy Corbyn. Given this, it is quite natural that the Conservative party is risk-averse.

And it’s this, more than anything, that is making the case for getting rid of May a hard sell. The Tory rebels and Brexiteers have a window but they will need to act quickly if they are to convince the rest of the party that May is incompatible with a clean Brexit. They are running out of time.