Sorry folks… I was wrong. Wrong about some major details I put in the Mannifesto.

In particular I was wrong to think that the wildlings were the ones who would capture the Dreadfort and wrong that Mance wrote the Pink Letter. I apologize for leading people astray.

People had been asking me to complete the later volumes of the Mannifesto for weeks, but I hadn’t. The reason was because something just didn’t feel right. Volume III felt way to conspiracy laden and baroque. The only essay that felt truly worthy was my insights regarding an attack on the Dreadfort (“The Dark Fortress”).

After a whole lot of rumination I think I’ve found the right answers for the Stannis-Bolton endgame (or at least much more likely ones). In the interests of keeping my essays more in line with the most evidence based theories, I have decided to make some major changes to the Mannifesto.I have released a series of new and modified essays for the Mannifesto, reflecting a major change in my theories regarding Stannis’s endgame.

The reason for the change is because there was always something ‘off’ about my earlier ideas. This new interpretation is reflective of more conventional, less conspiratorial theories.

In short, I propose that Stannis did indeed mean to take the Dreadfort (as proposed in the original Mannifesto)…

…but that the attack was led by Theon Greyjoy and several others.

The new/modified essays are as follows:

The Dark Fortress. (changed) This essay was dramatically revised to avoid mention of anything using the wildlings. I do think that Val and the wildlings are important, but they figure in later and elsewhere. If you read the prior version, then you probably don’t need to read this. Release the Kraken. New. Explaining why Stannis would opt to use Theon. The Fellowship of the King. New. Details of the secret mission to the Dreadfort, who travels with Theon and how the mission is completed. Ramsay’s Own Hand. (forthcoming). This essay will discuss the likelihood that Theon dictated the Pink Letter to maester Tybald, who sent it from the Dreadfort. This revision does not inherently change my belief that Mance may have glamored Ramsay, only that he may not have written the Pink Letter. The Fingers of the North. (forthcoming). A detailed hypothesis of the final confrontation between Bolton and Stannis.

As noted, I will be finishing these off ASAP. It will also necessitate a major change to the organization of the Mannifesto which I am also in the middle of.