Every NFL season, a team comes from out of nowhere and lands in the playoffs. These surprise stories typically fit into one of four narratives. We take a look at a few candidates that fit these classic profiles of a turnaround team.

(NOTE: Only teams that missed the playoffs in 2014 were considered for this.)

The reversal of fortune team: Giants

The New York Giants finished a league-worst 0-4 in games decided by eight points or less in 2014. Records in close games tend to regress to the mean, so don’t expect the Giants to fall flat in every close game they find themselves in next season. New York also had some trouble recovering fumbles, another stat decided primarily by luck. The Giants also sent a league-high 20 players to injured reserve, per Spotrac. A reversal of fortune in combination with the rest of the division possibly taking a step back — both Philadelphia and Dallas lost their leading rushers — should have the Giants vying for the NFC East crown in 2015. New York should get a full season from WR Odell Beckham Jr., who missed four games in 2014, and first-round pick Ereck Flowers should shore up a porous offensive line.

Recent examples: 2013 Panthers and 2014 Lions

The team with the new coach: Jets

The Jets have all the makings of a turnaround team. A busy offseason has yielded a roster perfectly built for new coach Todd Bowles. The former Arizona defensive coordinator takes over for Rex Ryan, whose fiery leadership had worn out the Jets locker room. The return of cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie — which gives Bowles the secondary he needs to play his aggressive man-to-man coverage behind numerous blitz schemes — plus the addition of WR Brandon Marshall on the other side of the ball could invigorate a team that had grown stale since its last playoff appearance. This, of course, depends on what the Jets get out of their quarterbacks. Geno Smith has never really had a chance to succeed with the casts he’s been surrounded with over his first two years, but he has no excuses in 2015.

Recent examples: 2013 Chiefs and Eagles; 2011 Broncos and 49ers

The young team that grows up: Vikings

There is a sleeping giant in Minnesota. Even if Adrian Peterson doesn’t play another snap in a Vikings uniform, Minnesota is ready to compete for a spot in the playoffs. It starts with head coach Mike Zimmer, who has earned a reputation as an excellent developer of talent. In players like CB Xavier Rhodes, DT Sharrif Floyd, S Harrison Smith, LB Anthony Barr and DE Everson Griffen, Zimmer has plenty of talented pupils to help turn the Vikings defense into a monster. That’s not even including another good draft haul by GM Rick Spielman. On the other side of the ball, the success of the offense will be tied to the development of QB Teddy Brdigewater, who played as well as any quarterback in the league in the month of December. This offseason, Minnesota gave its young signal-caller a true deep threat in WR Mike Wallace to go along with Swiss Army knife Cordarrelle Patterson and the emerging Charles Johnson. Keeping the offensive line healthy will also be key to a postseason run.

Recent examples: 2014 Lions, 2013 Panthers and 2011 49ers

The rookie QB turns things around: Buccaneers

The Buccaneers might be the most talented 3-13 team in the history of the league. There’s a reason Tampa Bay was a popular preseason pick to make the postseason in 2014. The biggest reason Tampa Bay failed to meet those expectations? Poor play by quarterbacks Josh McCown and Mike Glennon. The Buccaneers have a number of other problems — namely a underwhelming offensive line and a toothless pass rush — but this is a quarterback-driven league, and it’s difficult to win without one. Enter Jameis Winston, the most pro-ready passer in this year’s draft. Winston ran a pro-style system at Florida State and has the big-time arm to take advantage of Tampa’s multiple down-field threats. The rookie quarterback is more than willing to take shots deep, which will make Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans very happy. There have been many recent examples of rookie passers turning around a franchise, and, of the seven quarterbacks taken in this year’s draft, Winston has the best shot to do it in 2015.

Recent examples: 2011 Bengals; 2012 Colts, Seahawks and Redskins; 2008 Ravens and Falcons