THE SMART QUESTIONS

W ith nearly half a billion dollars of extension money doled out so far, it’s understandable that Marcus Smart would have an opinion on the status of his own contract talks. When he was inevitably asked about the subject, Marcus echoed what had been reported earlier, that there was no progress, and that his agent hadn’t received any formal offers. He also made it clear how much he loves playing in Boston and would like to remain a Celtic.

The deadline for rookie extensions is October 16th, and all indications, including commentary from Danny himself, are that no deal is imminent. It’s not some disaster if they don’t extend him, he simply becomes a restricted free agent next summer, at which point the Celtics can match whatever offers come his way. Obviously though an extension cements a mutual long-term commitment, with the hope that you’re locking the player in at a more tenable number than you would have to match. Miami loves Tyler Johnson, but they certainly do not love paying the $19 Million anvil Brooklyn threw on the back of the contract. In that case a reasonably balanced extension probably would have been better for both parties, as Johnson would have received a big bump a year earlier, while Miami would have retained a much more reasonable asset. The challenge of determining what is truly reasonable these days is likely related to the current stalemate with Marcus; that, and Danny’s desire to keep his options open.

Smart’s game is one of subtleties, which seems ironic since it is built on blunt force. His singular skill of ripping the ball out of people’s hands is second to nobody, with perhaps Kawhi being the only one that could make a case as his equal in that regard. In his own words on The Player’s Tribune, Smart described a loose ball as “…the sweetest sight my eyes ever saw”, which perfectly encapsulates his game. Those who haven’t watched Smart on a regular basis might look at the egregious flopping and bricky shooting and struggle to see a potential star. They will miss the consistency with which he makes plays that seem entirely based on the concept that he wants to win more than his competition. That is a unique skill in the NBA, the intangible and unquantifiable phenomenon of an unconscious desire to win at all costs. In the context of actual basketball, Marcus is one of the best defenders in the NBA. He can credibly guard 1-3, and has had success taking on certain 4’s, most notably cooling down a red hot Paul Milsap in the playoffs two years ago. The flopping, which to his credit he has improved, I believe came about due to his physical stature; being built like a fire hydrant has its advantages, but when you are that hard to move, sometimes it takes some histrionics for the officials to notice the contact you’re getting. It hurt his reputation as a defender early, but he seems to be gaining the proper respect finally, which in turn has led to him feeling like he doesn’t need to sell calls as hard.

The questions were never on defense for Marcus, he came into the league as a plus defender; it was always about what his ceiling was on offense. It’s easy to forget that Smart was a lead guard at Oklahoma St. He was Player of the Year in the Big 12 as a freshman, and likely would have been a top 5 pick in a weak draft class, but opted to return for a second season, publicly stating that he didn’t feel he was quite ready. His sophomore year he put up 18/5/6, while getting to the line eight times a game. That’s real lead guard stuff right there. In the 2014 draft I had him going to point-guard-deficient Orlando at #4, but when they opted for Aaron Gordon, Danny nabbed Marcus at #6 (with Dante Exum going to Utah in between). Had Marcus been drafted by Orlando, he would have started immediately, and it’s an interesting alternative timeline to imagine where his development would be if he’d been given the keys to an NBA offense from day one. In Boston he was drafted behind Rajon Rondo. Then came Isaiah Thomas, who was brought here to be a 6th man, but took the starting job and never looked back when Marcus turned his ankle after logging eight starts at the beginning of the 2016 season. And even now, with Isaiah gone, Marcus finds himself backing up another established All-Star at his position. We’ve never actually seen what Marcus can do as a lead guard in the NBA outside of a few starts when Isaiah was out. Because of his all-around skill and tenacity, he’s found his way onto the court, playing essentially starters' minutes the last few years by plugging holes all over the floor. And while he has had a chance to do some playmaking with second units, I’d argue it’s more difficult to excel in those situations rather than having a defined role as the engine of the offense. Marcus said as much after his monster playoff performance in Game 3 last year against the Cavs, stating that he had a completely different mentality knowing he was going into the game as the primary playmaker. That game represented the ultimate vision of what Smart can become. He dominated on both ends of the floor and at times was the best player on the court, no small feat in a playoff game featuring LeBron James. Those flashes of brilliance were extremely encouraging for Smart’s offensive potential, but it’s still difficult to determine what portions of his developmental curve are due to lack of opportunity, limitations in his game, or a natural trajectory for some point guards that simply takes time, similar to what we’ve seen with Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley, and Chauncey Billups.

If Smart extends in Boston, either before the deadline or as an RFA next summer, we may never see him in the lead guard role, with Irving looking like a long term investment. And that’s fine, I still believe in him as an impact player, but I’d feel a little cheated as a fan that he never got to run his own team. To be clear, I like Irving and think he will be phenomenal, I am just a believer in the general idea of Marcus Smart as a starting NBA Point Guard. When you start Marcus at point, you immediately have a physical advantage over more than half the league. Last year he thrived when taking smaller guards into the post, a strategy he employed much more towards the end of the season. His vision and passing have always been good, it’s his shooting percentages that have been atrocious. The problem is two-fold; for one, nearly half of his shots come from long range, where he is a terrible 28%. The other primary issue is that while he’s very good at driving and getting to the rim, he’s a horrible finisher in the paint. He’ll get 90% there on a driving layup attempt and then brick the shot with an awkward heave. It’s like the opposite of Kyrie Irving. For his career he is 36% from the field and 29% from three. You can’t be a starting point guard in the NBA and shoot like that, even though Ricky Rubio isn’t that far off at 38/32, having hit 40% for the first time last year.

There is a reasonable path forward for Marcus. His shot selection has never been particularly admirable, so he would be well-served to limit his outside looks to wide open catch and shoot situations, which should be prevalent with Hayward and Irving slicing through the lane. Despite the numbers, his shot doesn't look bad; when his feet are set it’s smooth and balanced, and he clearly shoots with confidence, so in terms of mechanics he doesn’t have a long way to go. Focus, repetition and discretion are what he needs to work on for his outside shot to improve, and there is potential for progress there. It’s also worth mentioning that he loves heaving full-court shots at the end of quarters; I’m not saying that’s why his FG% is so low, but it certainly isn’t helping. Regarding his finishing in the lane, that’s another area that can be developed. Kyrie didn’t just wake up one day being able to finish from every single angle within five feet of the basket. It will take better craft and increased body control for Marcus to improve around the hoop, and the honing of what is already a decent floater. Losing 20 lbs should also be a significant factor, and based on how he was moving in the preseason, it’s already paying dividends. Marcus needs to tap back into the aggression that got him to the line eight times a game in college. If he can do that his foul shooting could be a real weapon, as he shot a career high 81% on 3.2 FTA last year, having steadily improved since 64% his rookie year. That improvement makes me optimistic for his other shooting prospects, but he will still have to deliver.

A Marcus Smart who only shoots open, in rhythm threes, posts up smaller guards consistently, gets to the line five times a game with efficiency, and takes advantage of his bouncy new body on his drives would immediately vault up the list of best two-way players in the game. If he turns into that player this year, he’ll likely be looking at a number of rich offers this summer, some accompanied by a starting spot at the point. And that brings us back to the extension, or lack thereof, and the mystery surrounding Danny Ainge’s thoughts on the matter. We know Danny loves Marcus, but we also know that he loved Avery and Isaiah, and values flexibility over just about anything else. Where Marcus differs from other homegrown players though is that he represents Danny’s first crack at a high lottery pick. Prior to getting Marcus at #6, Danny had punted on previous high selections, trading away picks that became Jeff Green and Randy Foye at 5 and 7 respectively. Since Marcus, Danny has had another signature pick in Brown at #3 last year, and the two-part legacy of 2017’s draft with the #1 pick trade and subsequent Tatum selection. It’s no coincidence that Smart and Brown are two of the only four remaining players from last year’s team; they are Danny’s handpicked blue-chippers, along with Tatum.

In regards to Marcus’ contract, it seems that Danny may be making a play for flexibility, at the risk of possibly paying more in the long run. As we saw this summer, he’s willing to make any move at any time if he thinks it will make the team better, so not having a hefty Smart extension on the books going into the summer gives him that much more room to maneuver in the event something tickles his fancy. Even though the extension seems unlikely, it’s worth taking a look at what it might actually cost; one relevant example is Gary Harris, the 19th pick of Smart’s draft, who has emerged as a solid two-way player for Denver, and who received a guaranteed 4 year $74 Million deal with incentives up to $84 Million. Smart is a better defender than Harris, but Harris is a much better shooter, hitting 50% from the field and 42% from deep last year, while averaging 15 PPG in a starting role. Josh Richardson and Norman Powell are also somewhat similar to Marcus, although they were both second round picks from 2015, and each received identical 4 year $42 Million extensions recently. Marcus should eventually sign for more than Powell and Richardson, the question is whether or not he touches Harris money. If he has a breakout season he could even end up getting an offer like Otto Porter, who while productive, should not be a max player. Timing is everything, just ask Evan Turner, and Danny seems willing to risk the market next year, while being prepared to match any offers he sees as reasonable. If I’m the Celtics, I’m hoping to sign Marcus to something in the $60-70 Million range over four years, and if I’m Marcus’ agent, I’m trying to get $80-100 Million or more. Whether it happens by the deadline, or over the summer, if they do hold onto Smart they’ll have a pretty full cap sheet going forward. This was the year their balance of salaries finally normalized. Last year they had Al Horford making $26 Million, Amir Johnson making $12 Million, then Avery, Jae, and Isaiah in the $6-8 Million range. Tyler Zeller was actually one of the highest paid guys on the team at $8 Million. This year there is a clear hierarchy, with Hayward at $29 Million on a max, Horford on a max at $27 Million, Kyrie on a rookie max extension at $18 Million, followed by a bunch of low cost vets and rookie scale contracts. Next year if you add in Marcus at somewhere between $15-20 Million, you’d be looking at $95-100 Million locked up in Hayward ($31M), Horford ($29M), Irving ($20M), and Smart ($15-20M), which is right around where the salary cap was this year at $99 Million. It’s projected to go up maybe two million next year, and there is about a $20 Million bubble before you hit the luxury tax, but any large Smart extension will tighten the books substantially. The Celtics can afford to make that investment based on the amount of talent they have in affordable rookie deals, whether or not they do will come down to how Danny values the other options available.

@hartleybarrow