The oil market started to price in the return of Iranian oil just before the first deadline for the negotiations was reached on 30 June. Then as the negotiations made progress and a new postponement seemed more and more unlikely, oil prices continued to fall. A deal was already priced in when we reached the final day of negotiations, therefore the price fall today has been limited.



To measure the total impact of the deal on the oil prices we need to take into account the 16 days of negotiations. During this period of time the price of oil for short-term delivery (the front month contract) has fallen by around USD 6/barrel or 10%, and oil with delivery at end-2016 has fallen by USD 5/barrel.



"With an Iranian nuclear deal signed, we expect that Brent crude will trade closer to USD 70/barrel in 2016 than our current forecast at USD 75/barrel, but we will stick our view that the Brent oil price will average USD 62/barrel in 2015," says Nordea Global Research.