More than two Canadians out of three consistently identify themselves with progressive policy views: increasingly socially, culturally, and racially tolerant; supportive of higher public spending on health, education and housing; more recently, concerned about widening inequality and a worsening environment.

Why is it then that every 15 years or so we give the conservative party of the day a thumping great majority — Dief, Mulroney and Harper — sometimes twice? The simplistic answer lies in three little letters: n, d and p. When the NDP collapses, as it sometimes does, and the Liberals are long in the tooth, Conservatives win.

But in a nation as complex as this, of course, it is not that simple. First, when you are the “natural governing party,” like British Tories, California Democrats or Canadian Liberals you need to watch creeping “entitlementitis,” arrogance and sloppiness: This government’s sloppy appointments, failing to pay its own employees properly for two years, private island holidays, etc.

First, Canadian voters expect a lot from their governments. They want to be served competently and respectfully and they will punish their political leaders if they are seen to consistently fail. What conservatives, overdosing on Fox News, often fail to understand is that most Canadians want more and better government services, not less.

Second, we do love to hate the centre. Whether it is our provincial capitals, Ottawa, or those aloof institutions headquartered in the Ottawa, Montreal, and especially Toronto, triangle; from banks to broadcasters, to anyone with a Bay Street address. So, sometimes Tories effectively frame themselves as the voice of the little guy from Moose Jaw or Salmon Arm.

Historically, however, the Canadian political spectrum ran the full gamut — to paraphrase Dorothy Parker — from A to B, ideologically. In practice in government, if not in rhetoric, New Democrats in Manitoba were a few centimetres to the left of Davis-era Conservatives next door, while Bay Street Blue Liberals were entirely comfortable with Mike Wilson as a straight arrow finance minister.

Then the walls came tumbling down.

The Reformers and Quebec nationalists smashed their party, elected four Liberal governments, and pushed the acceptable in Canadian politics much further right. Again, this being politics, it was more in rhetoric than reality.

The recreation of Conservative unity nearly 15 years later came with heavy steel-toed boots and a heavy billy club as organizing and governing tools. Some of their rhetoric was deeply offensive to brown-skinned, Atlantic, Muslim and Aboriginal Canadians. Canadians finally forgot their anger at the sloppy and arrogant Liberals of old, and booted the Harperites out decisively.

If Canadians have an ideological posture that is more unifying than medicare, it is the importance of “being nice.” Competent, certainly, nice certainly not, was the former prime minister. So we choose a nice family man with a good smile, from a “good background” for the job. On many fronts, Prime Minister Trudeau has done a good job — but entitlementitis appears to be sliding once more under the door. This is a bit of a reach.

The Conservatives decided to match nice for nice, with the bonus of bland, deep dimples and a fey smile. What they appear to have failed to understand is that Andrew Scheer’s smile needs to represent nicer policy too — milder Islamophobia, veiled racial attacks on Indigenous Canadians, slurs on opponents’ integrity, etc. don’t cut it.

If the Conservatives are serious about winning in two years — something that is not entirely clear — they need to rebuild one of the great Conservative coalitions of old: uniting Quebec nationalists and Western progressives, rural voters and young suburbanites, with voters who care about empathetic policy and politics, and demand Canadian courtesy and competence in their politicians.

Returning to the Conservative quiddity of the past decade: thuggish politics, injected by hard right American political consultants first into the Harrisites and then the Harperites, is certain defeat.

A conservative politics that talks openly and honestly about inequality would help. Focusing on improving federal support for, and the quality of the delivery of, for instance, housing and health care, pensions and pharmacare, child-care and health-care, should not be anathema to modern conservatives.

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If you want to focus on guns and gays, on tax cuts, welfare cuts, hard-edged not compassionate criminal justice … well there is a keen young man in a very handsome orange hat revving up to fill your place on the political stage.

Robin V. Sears, a principal at Earnscliffe Strategy Group, was an NDP strategist for 20 years.

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