After a wild day of NFL action, the good news is that the Baltimore Ravens now control their own destiny when it comes to the AFC North. The bad news is that the Baltimore Ravens now have very little margin for error and are in greater danger than ever of missing the playoff entirely. Make sense? No? Well what did you expect? After all, this is NFL playoff math!

A Division Three-peat?

In early November, it was almost impossible to imagine the Ravens as AFC North champions. The birds were 3-5 and had just suffered their first loss of the Harbaugh/Flacco era to the lowly Browns. But the Ravens have won four of their last five since that game, including a very important win against the division-leading Bengals. Those same Bengals were clobbered on the road last night by the Pittsburgh Steelers in a game that simulataneously left all Ravens fans feeling excited and in need of a long, hot shower to remove the stain of Steelers support.

That loss put the Bengals at 9-5, 1.5 games ahead of the 7-6 Ravens as they head into tonight’s primetime showdown in Detroit. If the birds are victorious in the Motor City, they’ll be a game back with two to play, one of which is the season finale in Cincinnati. If they’re still within a game going into that Week 17 confrontation, then the winners of that matchup will take the AFC North crown and the home playoff game that goes with it. The losers could very well end up watching January football at home.

Another interesting hitch here is that Cincinnati hosts the Minnesota Vikings in Week 16. The Vikings are well out of it, but they’re suddenly one of the hottest teams in football, and they dominated the division-leading Philadelphia Eagles this past Sunday. If the Vikings can somehow upset Cincinnati next week, the Ravens can lose one of their next two games (at the Lions or home against the Patriots) and still go into the final week with the AFC North title on the line.

No Margin of Error

In last week’s article, I highlighted four games that Ravens fans needed to watch intently in Week 15: Chargers at Broncos, Patriots at Dolphins, Jets at Panthers, and Bengals at Steelers. In terms of what the Ravens needed, they got a 50/50 split. The Panthers and Steelers helped out with home wins that severely hurt the playoff chances for the Jets and positioned the Ravens to make a run at the AFC North, respectively. Unfortunately, the Broncos and Patriots were both upset, and the result is that the Ravens have almost no wiggle room when it comes to a potential wild card spot.

The Dophins moved to 8-6 with their home win over New England, which means that they hold the sixth seed in the AFC playoffs until the conclusion of the Baltimore/Detroit game tonight. The Ravens still hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with Miami, so they will get in over the fish if both teams end up with the same record. However, the Dolphins have a much easier road ahead. They finish the season with games in Buffalo and home against the Jets. While anything can happen, they will likely be favored in both those games. That means the Ravens will likely need to win out in order to end up with the same record as Miami. If that happens, they’ll win the division anyway. What’s really interesting is that Miami has the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bengals. If the Ravens, Bengals, and Dolphins all finish the season 10-6, the Ravens will win the division, the Dolphins are the final wild card, and Cincinnati goes home.

The other factor in play here is the Chargers. They’re 7-7 and finish the season with home games against Oakland and Kansas City. They’ll definitely be favored against the Raiders, and the Chiefs game is interesting because they may be in a position to rest their players. Kansas City is currently tied with Denver in the AFC West at 11-3, but Denver owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Broncos beat the Texans in Week 16 and the Chiefs are upset by the Colts at home, Kansas City will be locked into the fifth seed with nothing to play for in their final game against the Chargers. If the Chargers take advantage of a potentially easy closing slate and the Ravens and/or Dolphins stumble, San Diego could swipe the final playoff spot.

The Bottom Line

The Ravens are exactly where every team wants to be at this point in the season. They want a division crown and home playoff spot, and they control their ability to achieve that goal. It starts tonight in Detroit against a team that has playoff aspirations but has also dropped three of their last four games. They then come home to face a suddenly vulnerable and Gronk-less Patriots team before heading to Cincinnati to end the season. It’s not an easy path, and a stumble could be disasterous. But if they can successfully navigate it, they’ll have earned the opportunity to defend their title in January.