In Toronto Ward races, most incumbents rule

Tory has lead for mayor in most wards

TORONTO October 23rd, 2014 - In a series of samplings of public opinion across most of Toronto's wards taken by the Forum Poll™ in the days leading up to the municipal election among voters in each ward, it appears incumbents have the upper hand where they are running. Findings are reported below on a ward-by-ward basis. Note that some sample sizes for wards are small, and analysis of sub-groups calls for caution.

Ward 1, Etobicoke North - Ford, Crisanti lead

Among the 139 voters polled in Ward 1, incumbent Vincent Crisanti has the lead for councillor (51%) and no other candidate of the 12 listed gets even double digits. One fifth are undecided (19%). Doug Ford has a clear advantage in this ward (65%), compared to John Tory (22%) and, especially, Olivia Chow (6%).





Ward 2, Etobicoke North - Ford and Ford Forever

Mayor Rob Ford has the lead for councillor among the 216 voters polled in this ward (45%), and is only challenged, in equal measure, by Andray Domise (15%) and Munira Abukar (14%). Luke LaRocque takes one tenth (9%). Doug Ford has the lead for mayor (42%), with twice the share of John Tory (22%) and Olivia Chow (19%).





Ward 3, Etobicoke Centre - Tory leads for mayor

Among the 268 voters polled in this ward, which has no incumbent, Stephen Holyday has a slight lead of just less than a quarter (23%) to about a fifth for Annette Hutcheon (18%). Dean French and Greg Comeau get about one tenth share each (12% and 10%, respectively). For mayor, John Tory leads with half the vote (47%) to about a third for Doug Ford (33%) and about one tenth for Chow (12%).





Ward 4, Etobicoke Centre - Ford and Tory tied, Christenson leads

Among the 174 voters surveyed in this open ward, Neils Christenson wins the largest share (26%), followed in relatively equal measure by John Campbell (17%), Angelo Carnevale and Chris Stockwell (15% each). As many as a quarter are undecided (23%). In the mayoral race, Ford and Tory are exactly tied at just less than half (44% each), while few will vote Chow (8%).





Ward 5, Etobicoke Lakeshore - Tory, Di Ciano lead

More than half the 164 voters polled in this open ward will vote for Justin Di Ciano (54%), and no one else claims double digits, although Kinga Surma takes a tenth share (9%). John Tory is strongly preferred for mayor (62%) to Doug Ford (14%) or Olivia Chow (13%). Just one tenth are undecided (10%).





Ward 6, Etobicoke Lakeshore - Grimes, Russ Ford tied, Tory leads for mayor

Russ Ford (35%) and incumbent Mark Grimes (30%) are essentially tied in this ward among the 147 polled. No one else posts as much as a twentieth share. John Tory is preferred for mayor (44%) to Doug Ford (30%) and Olivia Chow (21%).





Ward 7, York West - Ford for mayor, Mammolitti with slight lead

Incumbent Girogio Mammolitti is slightly in the lead in this ward (33%) compared to his only real challenger, Nick Di Nizio (25%). Fully one quarter are still undecided (25%). Doug Ford has a strong lead for mayor in this ward (66%) compared to Tory (15%) or Chow (10%). Very few are undecided (4%).





Ward 8, York West - Ford for mayor, Perruzza leads

The plurality of the 146 voters polled in this ward will vote the incumbent, Anthony Perruzza (43%), compared to his only real challenger, Arthur Smitherman (12%). More than a third remain undecided (36%). Doug Ford is strongly preferred for mayor in this ward (54%), followed by Chow (24%) and Tory (10%).





Ward 9, York Centre - Augimeri, Cusimano struggle, Ford leads

Incumbent Maria Augimeri has a small lead over Gus Cusimano (32% to 24%) among the 199 voters polled here. Anthony Fernando is also considered (16%). One fifth are undecided (20%). Half the voters in this ward will vote Ford for mayor (51%) while relatively few will vote Tory (19%) or Chow (17%). Relatively few are undecided (9%).





Ward 10, York Centre - Pasternak leads, Tory, Ford tied

Incumbent James Pasternak is the favourite among the 396 voters polled in this ward (38%), followed by Igor Toutchinski (14%). One third are undecided (34%). For mayor, Tory and Ford are exactly tied at more than a third (37% each) while Olivia Chow has about half this share (15%).





Ward 11, York South-Weston - Nunziata rules, Ford for mayor

Incumbent Frances Nunziata has more than half the vote among the 342 voters polled in this ward (53%), and one third are undecided (35%). Doug Ford takes half the vote in this ward (53%) to a quarter for John Tory (23%) and less for Olivia Chow (14%).





Ward 12, York South-Weston - Council race tied up, Ford for mayor

Among the 284 Toronto voters polled in this ward, there is a very even split in preference for all four candidates (Frank Di Giorgio - 16%, Nick Dominelli - 17%, Lekan Olawoye - 15%, John Nunziata - 19%). One third are undecided (33%). Ford leads the mayoral race with half the vote (53%) to a quarter for John Tory (23%) and less for Chow (17%).





Ward 13, Parkdale-High Park - Doucette leads, Tory for mayor

Among the 262 voters polled in this ward, incumbent Sarah Doucette has more than half the vote (54%) and one fifth are undecided (20%). For mayor, John Tory leads with 4-in-10 votes (42%) followed by Chow with a third (34%) and Ford with half this proportion (14%).





Ward 14, Parkdale-High Park - Perks leads, mayoral race tied up

Incumbent Gord Perks has the plurality of the votes among the 326 voters polled in this ward (45%) and is only challenged by Charmain Emerson (19%). Three-in-ten are undecided (28%). In the mayor's race, all three candidates are tied (Ford - 28%, Tory - 29%, Chow - 27%). More than a tenth are undecided (13%).





Ward 15, Eglinton-Lawrence - Colle leads strongly, Ford for mayor

Incumbent (and scion) Josh Colle has close to half the vote in this ward (46%) and is challenged only by Chani Arya-Bain (11%) among the 329 voters polled here. In the mayor's race, Doug Ford is favoured (37%) over John Tory (29%) or, especially, Olivia Chow (16%).





Ward 16, Eglinton-Lawrence - Mixed bet for council, Tory with strong lead

Among the 227 voters polled in this open ward (once Karen Stintz's), only two candidates of many break one tenth of the vote (Dyanoosh Youseffi - 17%, Adam Tanel - 13%). One fifth are undecided (19%). In the mayoral stakes, John Tory is very heavily favoured (74%), compared to Olivia Chow (13%) or, especially, Doug Ford (8%).





Ward 17, Davenport - Palacio hangs on, Tory, Chow tied for mayor

Among the 206 voters polled here, incumbent Cesar Palacio has a very small plurality of the vote (29%), but the remainder of the vote is relatively evenly split among his three opponents (Alejandra Bravo - 15%, Saeed Selvam - 12%, George Stevens - 22%). In this ward, Olivia Chow and Doug Ford are tied for the lead in the mayoral sweepstakes (31% to 35%), while Tory trails (23%).





Ward 18, Davenport - Chow for mayor, upset for council?

Among the 110 voters polled here (caution, small base size), the largest plurality prefer Alex Mazer (42%) to incumbent Ana Bailao (33%). Olivia Chow is slightly preferred for mayor (37%) over Doug Ford (28%) and John Tory (24%).





Ward 19, Trinity-Spadina - Layton rules, Chow for mayor

Incumbent (and scion) Mike Layton has the dominant two thirds share among the 284 voters polled in this ward (67%) and about one quarter are undecided (22%). In the mayor's race, one half favour Olivia Chow (one of the only wards in which she leads - 50%), while one quarter favour Tory (24%) and one fifth Ford (19%).





Ward 20, Trinity-Spadina - Cressy rules crowded field, Chow for mayor

Among the 181 voters polled here, Joe Cressy has 4-in-10 votes (42%) and his only challengers out of a very long list are Sarah Thomson (12%) and Terri Chu (11%). Few are undecided (6%). One half also prefer Olivia Chow in this ward (48%) to one third for John Tory (33%) and half this proportion for Doug Ford (15%).





Ward 21, St Paul's - Mihevc leads, Tory, Chow tied for mayor

Among the 472 voters polled here, incumbent Joe Mihevc has more than half the vote (59%) and 3-in-10 remain undecided (29%). John Tory and Olivia Chow are tied at a third in this ward (36% and 35%, respectively), while Doug Ford trails (18%).





Ward 22, St Paul's - Matlow and Tory rule

Among the 618 voters polled in this ward, incumbent Josh Matlow has a strong lead (59%) while one third are undecided (33%). For mayor, John Tory has the biggest lead (62%), compared to Chow (16%) and Ford (9%).





Ward 23, Willowdale – Filion and Tory lead

Incumbent John Filion has the lead among the 488 voters polled here (40%) and is challenged only by David Mousavi (19%). Three-in-ten are undecided (29%). In the mayoral race, Tory leads (42%), compared to Ford (27%) and Chow (18%).





Ward 24, Willowdale - Shiner with small lead, Tory, Ford tied

Among the 432 voters polled here, David Shiner has a small plurality (30%), and is challenged by Dan Fox (19%). Fully 4-in-10 are undecided (41%). In the mayoral sweepstakes, John Tory (37%) and Doug Ford (32%) are essentially tied, with Olivia Chow trailing (19%).





Ward 26, Don Valley West - Burnside upsets Parker, Tory for mayor

Challenger John Burnside has a lead in this ward (32%), compared to incumbent John Parker (14%), David Sparrow (14%) or Ishrath Velshi (12%). For mayor, John Tory leads (40%), compared to Chow (22%) and Ford (24%).





Ward 30, Toronto-Danforth - Fletcher leads, Chow and Tory tied

The 324 voters in this ward have incumbent Paula Fletcher in first place (39%), but she is strongly challenged by Liz West (24%), though not so much by Jane Farrow (15%). For mayor, Chow (39%) and Tory (36%) are tied, while Ford trails 15%).





Ward 39, Scarborough-Agincourt - Karygiannis for council, Tory, Ford tied

In this open ward, former Liberal MP Jim Karygiannis leads with a third of the vote (36%) and is challenged only by Franco Ng (16%). Tory and Ford are essentially tied for mayor (32% and 29%, respectively) while Chow trails (16%).





“These are small sample sizes in these polls, but they can teach us a lot; one, that incumbency is critical, and that in open races, name recognition is just as critical. Those few councillors facing upsets are those who have not tended their brands well. Another insight is that the ward generally votes for the mayoral candidate with whom their incumbent identifies," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.