Is Nazem Kadri the Leafs next big mistake or a cornerstone commodity? Think fast, “Sweet Lou”, because ‘Naz’ needs a new deal…

As the Leafs forge headlong into trading season, we have seen exactly the type of transactions we had expected: expiring contracts and veterans recycled into picks and prospects. Nothing truly spectacular, but, considering the return to date, general manager Lou Lamoriello and co. have done a great job. Clearly, the market for rental players is alive and well, and most, if not all of the remaining usual suspects are likely be leveraged by next Monday’s trade deadline. But what about the others? What’s the plan for the likes of Tyler Bozak, Leo Komarov, Matt Hunwick, James van Riemsdyk and, especially, Kadri?

The Lebanese-Canadian centreman has toiled in Toronto for six seasons, surviving four NHL head coaches and three general managers since being drafted seventh overall by Brian Burke in 2009. Often the focal point of controversy, the shifty pivot with a penchant for drawing both penalties and criticism has answered his detractors – at least in the eyes of current bench boss Mike Babcock – with a brand and quality of hockey that may be somewhat lacking in terms of point production, but certainly earns a thumbs up in the eyes of the decision-makers in the front office.

Lamoriello has made no bones about his admiration for the 25-year-old, whose contract is set to expire after this season. The cold, hard counterpoint to that high praise is what Kadri and his agents can expect if negotiations exceed the Leafs general manager’s price range when it’s time to discuss such matters. Instead of accolades, they can likely expect references to an underwhelming points total, and an inability to lead the charge at critical times. Kadri’s camp will suggest that the organization has failed to surround him with suitable talent, as well as illuminating their client’s contributions to linemate Komarov’s career-best totals. They’ll also look to leverage the idea that the Leafs currently have no other candidates to fill the top line centre role.

All fair points, however the true valuation of Kadri’s next deal should neither be based on position, nor production, as both criteria, used exclusively, would be misleading.

Kadri has always been a confident kid, and his game, when at its most enjoyable, is equal measures of jaw-dropping skill and swagger. He can dangle with the best, and if he needs to throw a big hit to turn his team’s fortunes around, he’s been known to run up on even the biggest and toughest in the game without batting an eye.

Still, there’s always something about Kadri that has left us wanting a little more in terms of finish, in terms of consistency, and, especially, until this season, work ethic.

Once criticized by former-Marlies head coach coach Dallas Eakins for being too fat to deserve a roster spot, Kadri has matured mentally and physically over the years, and has put his nose to the proverbial grindstone. He is a much better faceoff man, a better two-way player, and an accomplished playmaker. After paying from his own pocket to work with sports fitness guru Gary Roberts, he’s learned to take better care of his body, and to think seriously about his training and nutrition practices, both during the season, and in the summer.

Without delving into the black art that is advanced analytics, number 43 has learned a number of hard lessons since those early days when he’d try to dangle opponents only to get pasted while admiring his moves for a little longer than he should have. He has learned to make better use of his linemates since those early days, and while he got off to a slow start this season, Kadri appears to be on pace for a career-best in assists if he can coerce some production from his wingers down the stretch. At times, he has demonstrated glances of near-elite talent level with deft moves that can freeze defenders and create havoc in the offensive zone. At others, he has struggled to be a difference- maker at critical moments when you need your big guns to step up and be that game-breaker that he’d need to be to justify a big payday.

All too often in recent times, the Maple Leafs have allowed themselves to be handcuffed to long-term obligations that they inevitably find themselves looking for ways to unload, so it is absolutely critical that Lamoriello gets this one right, for both the club and the player.

If the determining factor is primarily based on positional need, the Leafs will end up overpaying, as they did with Mikhail Grabovski, David Clarkson, and, arguably, with former captain Dion Phaneuf, whose impact was hardly commensurate with a top pairing defender earning $7 million a season. If points are the barometer used, Kadri will no doubt take his game elsewhere by demanding a trade. The player’s true value lies somewhere between the two extremes, and it is in this grey area where the two sides must agree to operate and co-operate in order to keep Kadri as a core piece going forward.

In this scenario, the player must come to grips with the notion that the Leafs need a better top-line centre option, and that any duties in that role beyond this season will be in the capacity of a placeholder until a better option emerges. Kadri and his representatives aren’t going to love that message, but that’s essentially what it comes down to. Kadri in the two-hole down the road makes the Leafs a legitimate threat, as it would suggest the presence of other offensive weapons further up the depth chart. His annual salary must be reflective of his long-term role with the club, as well as his anticipated points production.

As comparables, let’s look at the contracts of a few NHL centremen with similar production, and roles.

The idea here is just to create a range of players in similar roles, with a similar body of work, and not to try to identify exact comparables because frankly, that’s a pretty subjective topic, and wide-open to interpretation.

Kadri is right in the mix in terms of points and games played. He’s an ideal second-line centreman who plays a multi-faceted game. He draws penalties, contributes offensively, and he can create opportunity for other scoring weapons on the roster going forward, by spreading out opposing teams’ defense corps who will find it challenging to shut down multiple waves of offense.

With so much parity in the league, games are often won or lost by the play of special teams units, and Kadri’s uncanny ability to cause the opposition to take ill-timed offensive-zone penalties can make the difference on the score sheet and the standings. If the Leafs can get Kadri under contract until he is thirty for something around $4.75-5.25 million per season, they’ll end up with a very desirable, home-grown talent to stabilize the second line for years to come. Anything more than that range could be detrimental to the team, and with rumours of the salary cap flattening out over the upcoming seasons, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Lamoriello press for longer term and less dollars annually.

Expecting either negotiations or a trade prior to the end of the regular season may prove fruitless, as there is no immediate need to decide anything concerning Kadri’s status in the immediate future. Closer to the draft, the situation could change significantly.

Kadri could –and likely should – be an important part of the Toronto Maple Leafs going forward, if the money and term can be agreed upon. A home-grown Canadian asset representing the Maple Leafs for the next five years would be a very good thing for fans of the organization, and it sends a positive message to prospects, which is that they will be rewarded for their hard work, and valued accordingly by the team.

Main photo credit: bridgetds via photopin cc