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1. Brendan Rodgers, IF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 55 50/55 35 50 65+

Background: Thanks to the dynamic duo of Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, Colorado already owns one of the best left sides of an infield in baseball. Rodgers’ burgeoning stardom is merely an embarrassment of riches for the franchise. Taken with the third overall pick in the 2015 draft, Rodgers has made a rapid ascension up through the minor league development ladder – never once stumbling in any extended look. The Lake Mary High School product jumped straight into the Pioneer League during his professional debut, batting .273/.340/.420 as an 18-year-old in the hitter-friendly environment. Rodgers continued his torrid approach as he made the leap up to the Sally the following year, slugging .281/.342/.480 with plenty of extra-base firepower (31 doubles and 19 homeruns). The then-20-year-old middle infielder put on a Ruthian display in the first half of 2017, ripping through the California League pitching to the tune of .387/.407/.671 for 51 games. And he acquitted himself nicely against the most challenging minor league competition – Class AA – in a 38-game cameo (.260/.323/.413). Last season Colorado sent Rodgers back down to the Eastern League; in 95 games with the Hartford Yard Goats (love that name, by the way), the 6-foot, 180-pound bopper posted a .275/.342/.493 triple-slash line. He capped off his fourth professional season with a 19-game stint in the Pacific Coast League. Rodgers would finish the year with an aggregate .268/.330/.460 with 27 doubles, two triples, and 17 homeruns.

Analysis: The timing couldn’t be better for the organization. Arenado, the longtime face of the franchise, is due to hit the free agent market after the 2019 season. And D.J. LeMahieu, the club’s Gold Glove winning, All-Star second baseman, left a large hole at second base as well. Colorado experimented moving Rodgers around the skilled infield positions throughout the course of last season, having him play the keystone 24 times, shortstop 69 games, and third base for another 21 games. He played adequate defense at all three positions. The bat, though, it’ll play at any position. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2017, only two 21-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ total between 125 and 135 with a single-digit walk rate in the Eastern League (min. 350 PA): Francisco Mejia and Dominic Smith.

Rodgers doesn’t have any glaring red flags (unlike Smith, who was a power deficient first baseman). But he could very well take the Addison Russell career trajectory from top prospect to qualified big league starter without actually reaching stardom.

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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2. Garrett Hampson, 2B/SS

Hit Power SB Field Control 55 45 65 50 55

Background: In a perfect world Hampson steps into D.J. LeMahieu’s recently departed throne at second base and Brendan Rodgers eventually slides over to the hot corner if – or more like, when – Nolan Arenado leaves via free agency. Hampson, a third round pick out of Long Beach State, has progressed quicker than anyone expected. A career .304/.369/.398 hitter in three seasons with the Dirt Bags, Hampson spent his debut in the Pioneer League, spent his first full professional season in High Class A, and split 2018 between Class AA and the Pacific Coast while squeezing in 24 games with the big league club. He capped off his wildly successful run in 2018 with an aggregate .311/.382/.462 minor league line to go along with a solid .275/.396/.400 showing with Colorado.

Analysis: Hampson has converted me into a believer. After marking him as a utility-only prospect in last year’s Handbook, Hampson passed the minor’s toughest challenge, Class AA, with flying colors. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, only two 23-year-old hitters met the following criteria in the Pacific Coast League (min. 300 PA): a wRC+ total between 135 and 145, a double-digit walk rate, and a sub-20% strikeout rate. Those two hitters are Alberto Callaspo and Shin-Soo Choo. Callaspo spent parts of 10 seasons in the big league, hitting .265/.329/.364. And, of course, Choo has been a dynamic, often underrated hitter in his career, slugging .276/.378/.447.

I’ll take those odds every single day of the week. As for Hampson, he’s incredibly versatile having spent time at three up-the-middle positions (second base, shortstop, and center field). And he has the ability to capably play them. His power, while it seems like it’s a legitimate average skill, is a bit deceiving because of the environments he’s played in. But the hit tool and speed are above-average or better.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2018

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3. Colton Welker, 3B

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50/55 50/55 40/35 50 60

Background: An incredible find in the fourth round of the 2016 draft, Welker inked his name on paper for bonus worth $855,000 – one of the top deals among all players taken in the same round that year. And it’s proving to be quite the team-friendly agreement. After a solid debut in the offense-boosting environment that’s known as the Pioneer League, Welker dominated the South Atlantic League in a 58-game abbreviated sophomore campaign last year, slugging a whopping .350/.401/.500. Last season Welker’s numbers drooped a tad – after all, who could keep up with that previous pace – but he continued to prove any doubters wrong. Playing in a career best 114 games, the 6-foot-2, 195-pound third baseman battered the opposition to the tune of .333/.383/.489 with 32 doubles and 13 homeruns. He also swiped five bags in six attempts for good measure. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, Welker’s overall production topped the league average mark by 34%, the fifth best mark among all qualified bats in the California League.

Analysis: The majority of Colorado’s farm teams play in either a hitter-friendly (A) league like the Pioneer League or (B) home ballpark like the Lancaster JetHawks. Also known as the team Welker spent his promising 2018 season with. The former fourth rounder, though, performed well away from the JetHawks’ home stadium, hitting .289/.345/.404 on the road. Welker’s undergoing an important transition at the plate as he’s continually decreased his groundball rates in each of the last two seasons. He’s eventually going to see a spike in the homerun department in the next year or two. The hit tool is above-average; the power has a shot at developing into 20-HR territory; and the eye at the plate is trending in the right direction. Plus, he plays a passable hot corner as well. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, only three 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria in the California League (min. 350 PA): a 130 to 140 wRC+, a sub-10.5% walk rate, and a whiff rate below 22%. Those three hitters are Kyle Blanks, Jamie Westbrook, and Joc Pederson.

Blanks and Pederson own career big league wRC+ totals of 113 and 118, respectively. And Westbrook, always a personal favorite of mine, continues to work his way through the Diamondbacks’ system. What separates Welker from the group, though, is the fact that he uses the entire field more frequently (only 35.9% pull rate). Another strong showing in 2019 and Welker easily jumps into Top 50 prospect territory.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

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4. Ryan Rolison, LHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 55 60 55 50 45/50 55+

Background: One of the rare draft-eligible sophomores that pop up each season. Rolison, a well-built left-hander out of Jackson, Tennessee, left quite the impression on his former high school head coach. According to Justin Dial of The DM Online, here’s what Jack Peel, Head Coach of University School of Jackson, had to say about the budding ace:

“His whole senior year (was dominant). He gave up three earned runs the whole year. I think he was 10-0, and I think he gave up 12 hits all year. He threw three or four no-hitters and a perfect game. It was just the most dominating high school pitching performance I’ve seen, ever.”

The 6-foot-3, 205-pound left-hander, who was named Tennessee’s DII-A Mr. Baseball, made the transition to big time college baseball with aplomb. As a true freshman, Rolison appeared in 19 games for Manager Mike Bianco, 10 of them coming via the start, throwing 61.2 innings while finishing fourth on the club with 64 strikeouts. He would throw an additional 28.0 innings with the Orleans Firebirds in the Cape Cod League, punching out 35 and walking just 10 en route to posting a minuscule 1.93 ERA. Last season Rolison capped off his two-year stint with an impressive 120-to-45 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 97.0 innings of work. Colorado nabbed the big lefty in the first round, 22nd overall, and sent him to Grand Junction for nine brief appearances. He finished his debut with 34 strikeouts and eight walks in 29.0 innings.

Analysis: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about Rolison heading into the draft last season:

“Despite a resume that’s filled with less than two years of college experience, Rolison’s keeping some impressive company. Consider the following:

Among all SEC arms between 2011 and 2017, only six pitchers have posted a season in which they averaged 9.5- to 10.5 K/9, 3.3- to 3.6 BB/9, and a homerun rate below 0.50 HR/9 (min. 50 IP): Rolison, Jordan Sheffield, Kyle Wright, Caleb Reed, Ben Bracewell, and Tyler Stubblefield.

But here’s the impressive part: only two arms on that list – Rolison and Wright, the fifth overall pick list June – were teenagers when they accomplished the feat. So let’s move onto Rolison’s work during his sophomore season. Consider the following:

Among all SEC arms between 2011 and 2017, there are only five instances in which a pitcher averaged at least 10 K/9 with a walk rate between 3.5- and 4.0 BB/9 (min. 60 IP): Carson Fulmer, Alex Lange (twice), Matt Price, and Jordan Sheffield.

A few notes on the group:

Fulmer accomplished the feat during his junior campaign at Vanderbilt University, the same year the White Sox selected him with the eighth overall pick.

Lange, the 30 th overall pick in the 2017 draft, accomplished it in 2015 and 2016. He was 19- and 20-years-old at the time.

overall pick in the 2017 draft, accomplished it in 2015 and 2016. He was 19- and 20-years-old at the time. Price was a senior at South Carolina.

Sheffield accomplished it during his Red Shirt Sophomore year at Vanderbilt.

Again, Rolison, who currently meets the criteria, is one of only two 20-years-olds and the only left-hander. Rolison throws from a low three-quarter arm slot which comes across his body, likely contributing to his wavering control. And this causes him to miss across the plate to right-handers as well. His curveball shows late, 12-to-6 break with hard, downward bite. He has the look and production that screams #4-type pitcher, maybe a little more if his command improves.”

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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5. Grant Lavigne, 1B

Hit Power SB Field Overall 55 60 40 50 55+

Background: Fun Fact Part I: Lavigne became just the second first baseman selected by the franchise in the opening round of the draft – the other, of course, being some guy named Todd Helton. Fun Fact II: The 6-foot-4, 220-pound slugger was the only first baseman taken in the first round last June. Fun Fact Part III: Since 2010, only 12 first basemen have been taken in the first round. The Rockies snagged Lavigne, the Bedford High School product, with the 42nd overall pick last June and signed him to an above-slot bonus of $2,000,000. Lavigne, like all the other notable high round draft picks by the Rockies, spent his debut with Grand Junction, slugging .350/.477/.519 with 13 doubles, two triples, and six homeruns. The sneaky quick bopper also swiped 12 bags in 19 attempts.

Analysis: Even in one of the best hitting environments in the minor leagues Lavigne shined brightly. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 60%, the second best showing in the Pioneer League. Consider the following:

Since 2006, Lavigne’s 160 wRC+ trails only current Rockies star David Dahl for the second best total among all 18-year-old performances in the Pioneer League (min. 175 PA).

Tremendous, tremendous eye at the plate with genuine middle-of-the-lineup power, Lavigne certainly looks like the complete package – or at least that’s how he performed during his debut.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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6. Tyler Nevin, 1B/3B

Hit Power SB Field Overall 55 50/60 30 50 55

Background: Just like his old man, Tyler heard his name in the opening round of the June draft – just 23 years later. The younger Nevin, who was the 38th overall pick out of Poway High School in 2015, teamed with Colton Welker to form one of the most potent tandems in California League. The hefty – like his old man – 6-foot-4, 200-pound first baseman put together a dominating, middle-of-the-lineup thumper-esque .328/.386/.503 triple-slash line, belting out 25 doubles, one triple, and 13 homeruns. And Nevin also swiped four bags in seven attempts. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by a whopping 41%, the third best total in the California League. For his career Nevin’s sporting a solid .305/.371/.462 mark.

Analysis: Like his old man later in his lengthy career, Tyler ended up shifting away from third base last season, spending the majority of the time manning first base – which ultimately cuts into his overall value. Nevin’s overall offensive approach is similar to teammate Colton Welker: average-eye at the plate, budding 25 homerun potential, and – surprisingly – solid contact skills. In fact, there were 45 qualified hitters in the California League last season; Nevin’s swinging strike percentage, 10.1%, ranked as the 14th lowest. As far as his production measures up through a historical lens, consider the following:

Since 2006, there have been seven 21-year-old hitters that posted a wRC+ between 135 and 145 in the California League (min. 350 PA): Sean Doolittle, Chris Carter, Travis Demeritte, Teoscar Hernandez, Sean Rodriguez, D.J. Peters, and – of course – Nevin. But here’s the kicker: Nevin’s punch out rate, 18.5%, is nearly five percentage points better than the runner-up (Rodriguez).

Because Nevin’s essentially bat-only prospect, he can’t afford any minor hiccups over the next couple years. Otherwise, he’ll get pigeonholed into Quad-A status.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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7. Terrin Vavra, 2B/SS

Hit Power SB Field Overall 60 40 40 55/60 55

Background: The infielder from the University of Minnesota quietly capped off one of the better three-year careers last season. Eventually the 96th overall player taken last June, Vavra began to pop up on radars after a scorching freshman season with the Golden Gophers, hitting .358/.398/.467 with six doubles, two triples, and one homer. Primed to earn a bunch of hardware, his numbers regressed notably during his follow-up campaign with the Big10 school: he batted .308/.369/.418 with 14 extra-base hits and seven stolen bases. The lefty-swinging middle infielder was able to recapture whatever magic he showed – and then build upon it. In a career best 58 games, Vavra slugged a Ruthian .386/.455/.614 with career highs in doubles (13), homeruns (10), and stolen bases (eight) while tying his personal best in triples (four). After signing for just $550,000, Vavra continued to rip through the Northwest League, batting .302/.396/.467 with 16 extra-base hits. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 42%, the sixth best total among hitters with 190 or more plate appearances.

Analysis: Quite the steal in the third round last June Vavra has exceptional bat control at the plate with improving power. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, only three 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria in the Northwest League (min. 175 PA): a 138 to 148 wRC+ total, double-digit walk rate, and a strikeout rate below 23%. Those three hitters: Garrett Hampson, Mark Zagunis, and Shawn Payne.

Vavra slides into the same prospect class as Hampson – a potential above-average middle infielder. The lefty-swinging Vavra showed no platoon spits as well. In terms of draft slot and bonus, he could be one of the biggest steals in the 2018d draft. Expect him to take a quick path to the big league a la Hampson.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

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8. Riley Pint, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 60

Background: Pint had quite an interesting – and abbreviated – 2018 season. The fourth overall pick in the 2016 draft, Pint got lit up in his first start of the year, allowing five runs in one-third of an inning before leaving with an injury – reported forearm tightness. The hard-throwing right-hander popped up with Boise a couple months later for a pair of solid starts before missing another two months. Pint finished his third professional season with a grand total of 8.1 innings, recording eight strikeouts and 11 walks to go along with a 4.32 ERA.

Analysis: With little data – and a grand total of zero appearances observed in 2018 – here’s what I wrote about Pint in last year’s Handbook when I ranked:

First, let’s take a look back at his 2016 debut production through a historical lens:

Between 2006 and 2014, there were no 18-year-old pitchers that posted a strikeout rate of at least 20% and a walk rate of at least 13% in the Pioneer League (min. 30 IP).

During that same time frame there were only eight pitchers of the same age to post a strikeout-to-walk percentage between 6-9%. And of those eight, only one of them – Enrique Burgos – has any service time on his big league resume.

Obviously, not a great start to his professional career. So let’s take a look at his first full season in minor leagues:

Between the 2006 and 2015 seasons, there were just ten 19-year-old pitchers to post a strikeout percentage between 17-19% with a walk rate of at least 10% in the South Atlantic League (min. 80 IP). Half of those arms made it to the big leagues by the end of 2017: Andrew Faulkner, Chaz Roe, Jamie Callahan, Jason Garcia, and Mauricio Cabrera.

Again, it’s a pretty uninspiring group of arms – especially when you consider that the five with big league experience were all eventually converted into full time relievers. It’s still way too early to start talking about Pint getting pushed into a relief role or that he’s never going to live up to his lofty draft status, but he’s going to have to start taking important baby steps very, very shortly.”

While not necessarily the outcome, forearm tightness – especially the kind that limits a pitcher to single-digit innings – will often lead to Tommy John surgery. That only further clouds the supremely talented, enigmatic right-hander’s future.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2022

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9. Ryan Vilade, SS

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50/55 45/50 45 35/45 50+

Background: The albatross known as Ian Desmond’s massively stupid contract continues to look worse and worse. Desmond’s batted a lowly .251/.314/.404 since signing a five-year, $70 million two years ago. And that’s before accounting for the fact the Rockies forfeited the 11th overall pick in the 2017 draft as a result of the contract. So Vilade, the 48th overall pick two years ago, became Colorado’s first pick in the draft. A big, lanky shortstop out of Stillwater High School, Vilade showed some offensive promise during his debut with Grand Junction, slugging .308/.438/.496 with three doubles, two triples, and five homeruns. Colorado bumped the young middle infielder up to the South Atlantic League for 2018. And in 124 games with Asheville, Vilade batted a respectable .274/.353/.368 with 20 doubles, four triples, and five homeruns. He also swiped 17 bags, though it took 30 attempts. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average threshold by 10%.

Analysis: It took longer than expected for Vilade to find his true skill set with the Tourists, but he eventually developed into one of the better bats in the Sally in the second half of last season. After batting a disappointing .232/.342/.314 over his first 52 games, he slugged an impressive .304/361/.407 over his remaining 67 contests. Vilade is still quite raw in a lot of facets of the game – he needs to improve his base stealing efficiency or stop running all together because it’s been detrimental to the team; and his defense was beyond atrocious last season – but there’s some promise. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, only four 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria in the South Atlantic League (min. 350 PA): a 105 to 115 wRC+ total; a walk rate between 8.0% and 10.0%; and a sub-20% walk rate. Those four hitters were Adrian Cardenas, Jose Pirela, Jefry Marte, and Cristhian Adames. The impressive part: all four accrued big league service time.

There’s more in the tank for Vilade, especially considering his steady improvement throughout the year. But his value will take a considerable hit if he moves away from shortstop.

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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10. Peter Lambert, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 50 50 50/55 55 60 45

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.

Background: The former 2015 second round pick continued his rapid ascension through the club’s minor league development chain. Lambert, a 6-foot-2, 185-pound right-hander out of San Dimas, split his fourth professional season between the Hartford Yard Goats and the Albuquerque Isotopes. In a career-high typing 26 starts – which he’s done for the third consecutive season – Lambert tossed 148.0 innings while recording just 106 strikeouts and issuing only 27 free passes. He finished the year with an aggregate 3.28 ERA. For his career, the polished righty is averaging a solid 7.5 strikeouts and only 2.0 walks every nine innings.

Analysis: The sum doesn’t quite add up to the individual parts. Lambert shows a solid four-pitch mix: a straight fastball, which he commands to both sides of the plate well, a tightly spun slider/cutter, a workable curveball, and a changeup that flashes plus. And while he’s always been young for his levels of competition, Lambert’s never truly dominated either. With respect to his work in the Pacific Coast League last season, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, only three 21-year-old pitchers posted a 20.0% to 22.0% K-percentage with a sub-7.0% walk percentage in the Eastern League (min. 75 IP): Jair Jurrjens, Anthony Swarzak, and Clayton Blackburn.

Lambert, like the group, looks like a backend arm – both in terms of production and comps.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019