Justice-elect Jill Karofsky

So much for a nail-biter! In an election where many expected a narrow victory for the incumbent Dan Kelly (except for you, the smart people who knew better after reading my last post), or at least a close race, challenger Jill Karofsky delivered a resounding double-digit victory for Democrats in the state of Wisconsin. With over 1.5 million votes cast, Ms. Karofsky earned 55.3% of the vote compared to Mr. Kelly’s 44.7%. How did this swing state race turn into a borderline blowout? Let’s take a look.

Wisconsin has 72 counties. In 71 of those 72 counties, Ms. Karofsky earned a higher percentage of the vote than did her liberal counterpart in 2019. Even in that 72nd county where Ms. Karofsky underperformed by percentage, she did so by only 1% (earning 61% instead of 62%) and still saw a net increase in votes there due to 23% higher turnout. Simply put, Ms. Karofsky made gains across the board — literally, in every single county — both by running up the score in liberal counties and limiting gains from Mr. Kelly in more conservative counties. Not only that, she managed to flip 7 formerly red counties, including 4 of the 11 counties with the highest voter turnout in the state.

Liberal strongholds Milwaukee and Dane (that’s Madison for all the non-cheeseheads) again made up about 25% of all votes cast, nearly identical to their share last year. This year, however, Ms. Karofsky did over 5 points better in Milwaukee County and 2 points better in Dane County. Those numbers may sound modest, but considering those counties account for about 400,000 total votes, you can see how the 6,000 vote deficit from 2019 was quickly erased. Overall, Ms. Karofsky saw an increase of at least 3% in 58 of Wisconsin’s 72 counties, including a 5% or higher increase in 33 of them.

Turnout levels were also relatively good, all things considered. Take a look:

2020 count accurate as of early AM 4/14; no election in 2017

If you compare 2020 to the average of the past three SCOWIS elections, you’ll find about a 10% increase. Not bad for a pandemic! 2016’s election saw nearly 2 million votes cast, although that year featured both a competitive Democratic primary AND a competitive Republican primary. 2018 and 2019 had lower totals, but those elections were not accompanied by any presidential primaries. It makes sense, then, that 2020’s election (featuring one presidential primary) would split the difference.

Strange and unique circumstances in this election may limit the number of lessons we can draw from it, but this much is clear: Jill Karofsky did better than just about anyone could have expected, and Republicans should be at least a little nervous about the implications for November’s presidential election given that they lost ground in every county of what figures to be one of the most important swing states. Since Republicans insisted on holding this election in these circumstances over the objection of Democrats before getting thumped anyway, I will leave you with one of my favorite Alanis Morissette songs.