Aug 30, 2013

Despite a NATO military strike against Syria remaining, for now, an uncertainty — as to whether it will occur, when it might take place, and the scope of its reach — what is clear is that Lebanon is living to the beat of its own war drum. Everything in Beirut lies frozen in time, as everyone awaits a strike. Traffic is at a standstill, as is the economy, the security situation, and especially the political atmosphere, in a country having to deal with these chronic problems while at the same time bracing for a strike’s potential repercussions on a number of level.

First are the economic and social levels. These have historically been closely tied between Lebanon and Syria, because the two countries’ economies have always been conjoined to the point of almost being one and the same in the transport, trade, tourism, agriculture, construction, industry and other sectors. This has been the case since they were a single entity under France’s mandate to the time when they maintained “common customs interests” after their independence and even after they did away with their apparently inherited economic union in the mid-1950s.

In all eras and epochs, during times of tension and periods of openness — during Syria’s domination over Lebanon and times of conflict between them — economic and social bonds remained a constant in the equation of the relationship between the two countries. In this context, and amid all the talk about a military strike against Syria, the Lebanese hold their breath and ask, What will happen here? Will Lebanon’s economy further deteriorate from its current state of recession to complete stagnation or even abject, catastrophic collapse? Will its economic growth event fall even further below the current 1.5% rate? Will NATO’s first rocket against Syria also be a bullet to the head of the tourism and service sectors in a country whose capital lies less than 90 kilometers [56 miles] from some of the sites on a list of potential targets?

Furthermore, what will the impact be on an economy primarily reliant on the generation of revenue, with production accounting for only a small proportion of overall economic activity? The timing of this turmoil could not have been worse, as evidenced by Lebanon’s economic institutions calling for a warning strike on Sept. 4 to protest the ongoing cabinet void, at issue since March 22 and negatively affecting the economy regardless of any potential strike.

In the same context, people are also thinking about the effect of a military strike on the number of Syrian refugees in Lebanon. While the figure for Syrians registered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees currently stands at around 700,000, by how much will this figure swell if NATO missiles rain down on Syrian territory, particularly in light of the partial border closure with Iraq and the relative heated fronts along the Jordanian and Turkish borders? Only the Lebanese border will remain open for those fleeing the hell of missile fire.