Brexit won’t lose Labour seats, but it will shred its manifesto promises Much of Westminster used to regard Jeremy Corbyn as the political equivalent of a dirty weekend: a fun diversion before […]

Much of Westminster used to regard Jeremy Corbyn as the political equivalent of a dirty weekend: a fun diversion before a reversion to everyday life. Labour’s forward advance at the general election upended that consensus, but there is still a thriving cottage industry of commentators determined to declare that this defeat, or that gaffe, will be the end of him.

The newest supposed threat to Corbyn’s leadership is the disconnect between the party and its voters over Brexit, and Britain’s future relationship with the European Union.

More than two-thirds of Labour voters backed a Remain vote in 2016 – and, according to the British Electoral Survey, the largest and most respected study of voter behaviour, most voters believed that a Labour vote was a vote for a gentler exit from the EU than that offered by the Conservative Party. Added to that, they really cared – Brexit was the most important issue to Labour voters than any other single topic.

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‘The thing about Remainers is that they can count – they know that voting for the Lib Dems or the Green party strengthens the Conservative party‘

The difficulty is that Corbyn is a Eurosceptic of long standing, having voted against every European treaty to come before the House of Commons during his time as an MP. Close friends joked that he had been “replaced by a duplicate” during his brief turn as a pro-EU campaigner during the referendum. His objection to the European Union is founded on the rules of the single market and the European Court – and to escape those, you need the hardest of exits from the European Union.

The electoral danger is imaginary

He’s not alone, either: a narrow majority of Labour MPs want the free movement of people to and from the United Kingdom and the nations of the EU to end – which, again, requires a drastic breach from the EU.

There are two problems here. The first is that the danger to Labour electorally is imaginary. The thing about Remainers is that they can count. They know that thanks to Britain’s iniquitous electoral system, voting for a party with a Brexit policy closer to their own, whether that be the Liberal Democrats or the Green Party, strengthens not the cause of staying in the European Union but the Conservative Party, who have a still more devastating plan for exit than Labour.

The only place where a pro-European party can hope to do real damage to Labour without letting in a Conservative MP is Scotland, where the shadow of the independence referendum makes the SNP an uncomfortable home for most Labour voters.

Broken promises

But the second problem is a lot bigger: it’s entirely the wrong approach to assess Labour’s Brexit policy – or any policy – through the political costs. The dangers of Brexit are the economic costs.

Take the series of promises in Labour’s 2017 manifesto, the document that the party’s strategists credit with spurring their forward advance. They were funded by raising taxes on corporations and people earning more than £80,000. At the moment, Labour’s Brexit policy will cost jobs, including of those earning above £80,000, and reduce the amount of money earned – and therefore taxed – by Britain’s biggest corporations.

Labour’s tuition fee pledge is based, too, on a Brexit that means the bulk of British graduates stay and pay tax in the United Kingdom, rather than fleeing the wreck of Britain after they finish their courses. A Brexit that turns the country from a nation of immigrants to a nation of emigrants means that Labour’s manifesto promises really will be broken.

Brexit’s not a problem for Corbyn if all it mean is that the Remainers who vote for him next time do so through gritted teeth. It is a problem if it shreds his manifesto. That’s the way to judge Labour’s Brexit policy – not on whether it allows the party to take office, but whether it allows the party to do anything in office once it gets there.

Stephen Bush is Special Correspondent at the New Statesman