“Solar flare might crop up, cook us in our seats,” Leonard McCoy

A pair of solar flares, one on the 9th and a much stronger one yesterday (Sept. 10), are sending energetic particles at us in what’s called a “coronal mass ejection” or CME. The “solar storm” or effects of these two events will hit Earth on Thursday and possibly Friday.

The immediate burst of energy from the big flare yesterday had some effect on high frequency radio waves already (check out the first image in the gallery above), according to NOAA’s Space Weather prediction Center, but the hard-to-take CME particles are likely to go just above the Earth, singing us just a bit.

The Associated Press reports:

New calculations from satellite data show that the worst of the energetic particles streaming from the sun likely will go north or above Earth this time, , said Tom Berger, director of the Space Weather Prediction Center late Wednesday. So while the power grid may see fluctuations because the storm will cause changes in Earth’s magnetic field, it won’t knock power systems off line, Berger said. It may cause slight disturbances in satellites and radio transmissions but nothing major. “We’re not scared of this one,” Berger said. The storm is moving medium fast, about 2.5 million miles per hour, meaning the soonest it could arrive is early Friday. But it could be later, Berger said. Solar storms occur often, especially during peaks in the solar cycle, and don’t directly harm people. “There’s been a giant magnetic explosion on the sun,” Berger said. “Because it’s pointed right at us, we’ll at least catch some of the cloud” of highly energized and magnetized plasma that can disrupt Earth’s magnetic sphere, which sometimes leads to temporary power grid problems.

In somewhat more technical language, here’s what NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center is saying:

G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms remain in the forecast for September 12th as a result of the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R1 (Minor) solar flare observed on the 9th. The latest WSA-Enlil model run has the CME associated with yesterday’s R3 (Strong) solar flare arriving mid to late day on that same day. A G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm Watch has been issued for September 13th due to the combined influence of these two events with G1 (Minor) storming anticipated to continue into September 14th. In addition, the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm that is in progress as a result of the eruption yesterday is expected to persist for the next few days. Keep in mind that the forecast periods listed are in Universal Time so aurora watchers in the northern U.S. should be looking for possible activity both Thursday and Friday nights.

There was also a big flareup on Aug. 24:

Video by AP Raw: NASA Captures Solar Flare NASA reported the sun emitted a mid-level solar flare, on August 24th. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the images of the flare, which erupted on the left side of the sun. (Sept. 1)

You can see more images from that flare in the gallery above.

And, in 2012, the Earth nearly got cooked … as we reported:

… there was some big activity in July 2012 as a plasma cloud, or coronal mass ejection (CME), from a solar flare narrowly missed Earth. The storm passed through Earth’s orbit, but fortunately the Earth wasn’t there. If the flare had occurred a week sooner we would have been hit.

That flare wouldn’t have physically harmed our bodies, but it would have damaged satellites and taken down our power grid. A study done by the National Academy of Sciences totaled the estimated damages of that event at over $2 trillion.

This close-call flare is most often compared to the “Carrington Event” of September 1859, when multiple CMEs hit Earth. That event most famously caused the northern lights to be visible as far south as Hawaii and even sparked fires at some telegraph offices.

In February, Pete Riley of Predictive Science Inc. published “On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events,” in which he analyzed the records of solar storms. He concluded that the likelihood of Earth being hit by a Carrington-class storm in the next 10 years is 12 percent.

“Initially, I was quite surprised that the odds were so high, but the statistics appear to be correct,” Riley told NASA. “It is a sobering figure.”









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Photo: Chandra X-ray Observatory Center / X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: De Image 1 of / 22 Caption Close Image 2 of 22 Centaurus A is the fifth brightest galaxy in the sky -- making it an ideal target for amateur astronomers -- and is famous for the dust lane across its middle and a giant jet blasting away from the supermassive black hole at its center. Cen A is an active galaxy about 12 million light years from Earth. (Credit: X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: Rolf Olsen; Infrared: NASA/JPL-Caltech) less Centaurus A is the fifth brightest galaxy in the sky -- making it an ideal target for amateur astronomers -- and is famous for the dust lane across its middle and a giant jet blasting away from the ... more Photo: Chandra X-ray Observatory Center / X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: Ro Image 3 of 22 Centaurus A -- X-ray view. Centaurus A -- X-ray view. Photo: Chandra X-ray Observatory Center / X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: De Image 4 of 22 Centaurus A -- infrared view. Centaurus A -- infrared view. Photo: Chandra X-ray Observatory Center / X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: De Image 5 of 22 Image 6 of 22 Centaurus A -- optical view Centaurus A -- optical view Photo: Chandra X-ray Observatory Center / X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: Ro Image 7 of 22 M101 is a spiral galaxy like our Milky Way, but about 70% bigger. It is located about 21 million light yearsfrom Earth. X-rays from Chandra reveal the hottest and most energetic areas due to exploded stars, superheated gas, and material falling toward black holes. Infrared data from Spitzer shows dusty lanes in the galaxy where stars are forming, while optical data traces the light from stars. (Credit: X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: Detlef Hartmann; Infrared: NASA/JPL-Caltech) less M101 is a spiral galaxy like our Milky Way, but about 70% bigger. It is located about 21 million light yearsfrom Earth. X-rays from Chandra reveal the hottest and most energetic areas due to exploded stars, ... more Photo: Chandra X-ray Observatory Center / X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: De Image 8 of 22 M101 -- infrared view. M101 -- infrared view. Photo: Chandra X-ray Observatory Center / X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: De Image 9 of 22 M101 -- X-ray view. M101 -- X-ray view. Photo: Chandra X-ray Observatory Center / X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: De Image 10 of 22 Image 11 of 22 M101 -- optical view. M101 -- optical view. Photo: Chandra X-ray Observatory Center / X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: De Image 12 of 22 M51 is another spiral galaxy, about 30 million light years away, that is in the process of merging with a smaller galaxy seen to its upper left. (Credit: X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: Detlef Hartmann; Infrared: NASA/JPL-Caltech) less M51 is another spiral galaxy, about 30 million light years away, that is in the process of merging with a smaller galaxy seen to its upper left. (Credit: X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: Detlef ... more Photo: Chandra X-ray Observatory Center / X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: De Image 13 of 22 M51 -- infrared view. M51 -- infrared view. Photo: Chandra X-ray Observatory Center / X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: De Image 14 of 22 M51 -- X-ray view. M51 -- X-ray view. Photo: Chandra X-ray Observatory Center / X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: De Image 15 of 22 Image 16 of 22 M51 -- optical view. M51 -- optical view. Photo: Chandra X-ray Observatory Center / X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: De Image 17 of 22 M81 is a spiral galaxy about 12 million light years away that is both relatively large in the sky and bright, making it a frequent target for both amateur and professional astronomers. (Credit: X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: Detlef Hartmann; Infrared: NASA/JPL-Caltech) less M81 is a spiral galaxy about 12 million light years away that is both relatively large in the sky and bright, making it a frequent target for both amateur and professional astronomers. (Credit: ... more Photo: Chandra X-ray Observatory Center / X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: De Image 18 of 22 M81 -- infrared view. M81 -- infrared view. Photo: Chandra X-ray Observatory Center / X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: De Image 19 of 22 M81 -- X-ray view. M81 -- X-ray view. Photo: Chandra X-ray Observatory Center / X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: De Image 20 of 22 Image 21 of 22 M81 -- optical view. M81 -- optical view. Photo: Chandra X-ray Observatory Center / X-ray: NASA/CXC/SAO; Optical: De Image 22 of 22 Storm caused by solar flares will lightly singe Earth by Friday 1 / 22 Back to Gallery

Jake Ellison can be reached at 206-448-8334 or jakeellison@seattlepi.com. Follow Jake on Twitter at twitter.com/Jake_News. Also, swing by and *LIKE* his page on Facebook.

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