TO HEAR Italy’s politicians tell it, the country is, if not quite out of the woods, then at least emerging into an unexpected clearing, blinking gratefully. Growth has returned, exports are up, some of the weakest banks have been repaired and even the migration crisis seems to be under control, thanks to a deal with Libya’s warlords. Emboldened, the aspirants are outbidding each other to promise gifts to voters. Benefits will rise, taxes will fall and jobs will soon return.

Sadly, things are not quite so rosy. The deal with Libya is precarious, to say the least. Although the economy is expanding again, its recovery is much weaker than that of the other big euro-area economies. Output growth of 1.7% a year trails the euro-zone average by a full percentage point. Unemployment is still over 10%, and far worse among young people. Banks are sitting on large portfolios of non-performing loans. At around 130% of GDP, Italy’s public-sector debt is still a huge burden, even as quantitative easing by the European Central Bank, which kept interest rates low, is coming to an end. The country is in poor shape to withstand the next downturn. Responsible, reforming government is as badly needed as ever.

Alas, Italy is unlikely to get it on March 4th. The election that day is being fought using a new system that combines proportional representation with first-past-the-post contests in almost 40% of the seats (see article). Predictions are hard, but the signs point to a hung parliament, followed by a period of dealmaking, with a risk of things going seriously wrong.

Most seats will probably go to an unsavoury right-wing coalition that consists of Forza Italia, led by a convicted fraudster, Silvio Berlusconi; the anti-EU and anti-immigrant Northern League; and a hard-right outfit called the Brothers of Italy. Fortunately, Mr Berlusconi cannot be prime minister. Because of his conviction he is barred from parliament, at least until next year. If the League wins more seats than Forza (polls have them near-tied), it will be the one pushing for the top job anyway. An administration led by its boss, Matteo Salvini, would spook markets and investors: he once described the euro as a “crime against humanity”, and favours (as does Mr Berlusconi) a flat tax which would hit revenues hard. The party is soft-pedalling its traditional demand for northern separatism. It is now more of a far-right national party (allied with the National Front in France). The coalition, however, looks likely to come up short.

That might be either a relief or awful. A relief, because neither the 81-year-old Mr Berlusconi nor Mr Salvini is fit to lead Italy; awful because there is a small chance that Mr Salvini might in that case be tempted to throw in his lot with the Five Star Movement (M5S), another populist outfit that is led by a 31-year-old with no experience of running anything apart from a website. The most popular party in Italy, M5S is chiefly a protest movement. It has toned down its anti-Europeanism but has few credible policies and no ideological underpinning. The role of its founder and self-styled “guarantor”, a comedian named Beppe Grillo, remains a mystery.

It has to be the Democrats

If The Economist had a vote, we would reject those woeful options and plump instead for continued government by the left-of-centre Democratic Party (PD). Under it, the country has at least been sensibly managed, and its “jobs act” introduced a few reforms into a system that still over-protects those with permanent jobs, encouraging companies to hire young people only on short-term contracts. However, the polls suggest that the voters, tired of years of austerity and PD infighting, will punish it at the polls. Barring a surprise, it will not be able to govern on its own.

Italy is hopelessly stuck. The least bad way forward would be another “government of the president”, a broad coalition underwritten by Sergio Mattarella, the head of state. For all the flaws of such a system, it has allowed Italy to muddle along since Mr Berlusconi stepped down at the height of the debt crisis in 2011. The current prime minister, Paolo Gentiloni of the PD, has been in office for just over a year, but has already shown the diplomatic skill to manage such an unwieldy beast. In Pier Carlo Padoan, Italy has been fortunate to have an astute finance minister who understands the need for fiscal discipline and reform. For Italy’s sake, both of them deserve to stay in charge.