Migration Replacement: FN om ‘migration streams needed to achieve specific population objectives’

Jeg nævnte henkastet FN-rapporten for nogle måneder siden, men når nu samfundsforskere hårdnakket hævder at ideen om befolkningsudskiftning er ‘en racistisk konspirationsteori’, så må det være på plads med et lille tilbageblik. Der finder en befolkningsudskiftning sted, og tanken om at erstatte aldrende europæere med unge afrikanere er slet ikke så fjern for internationale organisationer.

Året er 2001. FN’s afdeling for økonomiske og sociale anliggender udgiver en flere hundrede sider lang rapport på forskellige sprog med overskriften: Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?

Befolkningsprognoser for europæiske lande pointerer at ‘population decline and population ageing’ er en demografisk trend, hvad vil kræve revurderinger i spørgsmålet om ‘international migration’ for at imødegå. Rapporten ‘considers replacement migration’ for otte lande (Tyskland, Frankrig…) og to regioner (Europa og EU).

Fra rapportens Executive summary (s. 1).

“The United Nations Population Division monitors fertility, mortality and migration trends for all countries of the world, as a basis for producing the official United Nations population estimates and projections. Among the demographic trends revealed by those figures, two are particularly salient: population decline and population ageing.

Focusing on these two striking and critical trends, the present study addresses the question of whether replacement migration is a solution to declining and ageing populations. Replacement migration refers to the international migration that would be needed to offset declines in the size of population and declines in the population of working age, as well as to offset the overall ageing of a population.

The study computes the size of replacement migration and investigates the possible effects of replacement migration on the population size and age structure for a range of countries that have in common a fertility pattern below the replacement level. Eight countries are examined: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America. Two regions are also included: Europe and the European Union. The time period covered is roughly half a century, from 1995 to 2050. …

Building upon these estimates and projections, the present study considers six different scenarios with regard to the international migration streams needed to achieve specific population objectives or outcomes for the eight countries and two regions mentioned above. These are not meant to be recommendations in any way, but illustrations of hypothetical scenarios.”