The phrase “fingertip control” is used by parliamentary whips to disguise panic in government as policies and votes dip perilously close to the wire. There are few fingertips left at Westminster now. I have never seen a government strategy so misjudged, nor fail so speedily, as that devised in Downing Street since late July.

The errors began with the reconstituting of the Vote Leave team at No 10, making the classic error of fighting the next war like the last, assuming, with the arrogance of years of despising politicians and Westminster, that running government was easy if you cut out the middle-men.

Secret plans were laid, despite public denials, to prorogue parliament for a lengthy spell. When announced, this required ministers uneasily to claim that it was merely business as usual for a Queen’s speech, making them look evasive. Last Tuesday, MPs – later that day to lose the whip – met the PM in Downing Street. Boris Johnson was told sharply how damaging prorogation had been. Colleagues returning to Westminster to support his efforts in Berlin and Paris, giving him the time we thought we had, now saw the rug pulled from under our feet, thus forcing early the measure to protect against no deal.

That error had been compounded by Michael Gove’s ambiguity about obeying the law, and then crucially by public signalling that a vote against the government would be treated as a confidence vote, and the whip withdrawn from those rebelling. With no support for a Corbyn confidence vote, the government’s decision seemed deliberate – to provoke a confrontation.

I do not know if this follows a decision to purge the party of moderates like us, as advocated in some Tory circles, or if it was a crude attempt to see us fold under pressure. Either way they would win.

They got their result. Whoever doubted the government’s contempt for our expression of constituents’ concerns had to endure the arrogance and inexplicable performance of Jacob Rees-Mogg responding to the debate. Hearts were hardened, a Rubicon was crossed. The rest, as they may say, is history.

No one will be fooled into supporting an election before 31 October. Whatever attempt the government makes, it is doomed to failure

This also means no one will be fooled into supporting an election before 31 October. Whatever attempt the government makes, either trying a vote of confidence in itself, or trying to run a one-clause bill to get round the fixed-term legislation, it is doomed to failure. The resulting lack of trust has been fatal to that.

There is an answer. The EU is indeed watching the government’s control of the Commons and wants to know if a deal agreed will get its support, but so far the government has the wrong people in its sights. If we are to leave on 31 October, we must agree a deal at the European Council. Boris Johnson can achieve this, but only if he tackles those who stopped it before. He needs to scrap his present strategy. He should stop insulting a divided opposition, and work with those who want to leave, and also square up to the ERG, the elephants in the room last week.

They now need to be told that he is doing a new deal, but based on the withdrawal agreement, still the only thing agreed between 28 states. If they do not vote for it, they will follow us out of the party without a whip, and a Conservative election victory is improbable if we have not left. Brexit will vanish if the Tories lose, and millions will dance on its grave. The ERG, so close to everything they desired in 2016, will have stuffed it up and lost it.

Vote for the deal, he will say. I’d love to be there.

Alistair Burt, Conservative MP for North East Bedfordshire, will stand down at the next election