NFL wild-card matchups: Can Falcons contain Todd Gurley, Rams?

Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz | USA TODAY

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One year after their high-powered offense led the way on a Super Bowl run, the Atlanta Falcons likely will have to rely on their defense at the outset of the postseason.

With its attack regressing to the middle of the pack, Atlanta leaned on a defense that finished in the top 10 in scoring and total yards for the first time since 1998 to clinch the final spot in the NFC field. Yet the challenge facing the Falcons on Saturday is one larger than a matter of identity or balance.

The Los Angeles Rams are the NFL's top-scoring outfit at 29.9 points per game. Avoiding a shootout and beating them in the first night-game at the Coliseum since their return to the city last season could hinge on accomplishing something few others have done this season: slowing Todd Gurley.

The Rams are 6-0 this season when the third-year running back has more than 100 yards rushing. But he also has raised his game in an MVP-caliber season by proving himself as a dynamic receiving threat, leading the team in receptions (64) and finishing first in the league with 2,093 yards from scrimmage despite sitting the final game.

Though it will take a swarming performance to slow Gurley, Atlanta has at least some reason for optimism. The defense firmed up against the run in the second half of the year, allowing just 93.6 yards per game on the ground in the last eight contests. Dontari Poe and Grady Jarrett will be counted on to create a push up front and disrupt Gurley before he builds steam.

What Falcons coach Dan Quinn expressed concern about this week, however, was Gurley's ability to make people miss in space. To prevent the kind of explosive runs that could break the game open, linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal will have to be sound both in coverage and their tackling ability, as the two could be the best individual assets Atlanta has against the former Georgia star.

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Here are three other matchups that will define this weekend's wild-card games:

Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey vs. New Orleans Saints linebackers

Once viewed as a front-runner for offensive rookie of the year, McCaffrey never fully broke out despite leading the team in receptions (80) and finishing second in receiving yards (651). Though effective in small stretches, he had just two games in which he topped 100 yards from scrimmage.

One of McCaffrey's best outings, however, came in the season's first meeting with the Saints. He recorded a season-high 101 receiving yards on nine catches in a 34-13 loss. And though he was held to 49 total yards on 11 touches in the rematch, he hauled in a touchdown pass. As Carolina tries to crack New Orleans' defense, it's evident that getting McCaffrey more involved in the passing game could be the best way to give Cam Newton help.

Though the Saints' linebacking corps improved this season, McCaffrey still remains a mismatch. New Orleans will have to be creative in its coverages, though it will be aided by the presence of cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who missed each of the regular-season contests against Carolina.

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Jacksonville Jaguars QB Blake Bortles vs. Buffalo Bills secondary

Bortles' steady play for most of the season helped Jacksonville seal its first AFC South title, but a stigma remains for the fourth-year quarterback. Two days after beating the Jaguars in the season finale, Tennessee Titans defensive tackle Jurrell Casey said Bortles would "choke" in a close situation late-game situation.

The insult was just the latest for Bortles, who also was ridiculed by Houston Texans defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and Seattle Seahawks safety Earl Thomas earlier this season. And while the league's top rushing attack and a staunch defense has eased his burden, Bortles still must demonstrate he can be an asset rather than a liability. Turnovers are perhaps the biggest threat to derailing him and the Jaguars' offense after he threw five interceptions in the last two games of the regular season.

Though it ranks just 20th in pass defense, Buffalo is tied for sixth in 18 interceptions (18) and sixth in opposing quarterback rating (78.9). For Bortles, the danger lies in a secondary that consistently shifts safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, creating confusion for opposing passers. Even if Marqise Lee is able to play through an ankle injury, Bortles will have to be cautious and methodical in picking his spots against a defense that has given up the fewest big passing plays in the league.

Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry vs. Kansas City Chiefs' front seven

In discussing Marcus Mariota and the Titans' offensive game plan, tight end Delanie Walker said that, "Sometimes you've got to overcome coaching." While the remark appeared to emphasize the need for ad-libbing at times, the message was clear: Tennessee likely won't be scheming its problems away.

While Mariota will be called upon to spark the offense, Henry is in line to be the one doing the heavy lifting. In the Week 17 win over the Jaguars, he had a career-high 28 carries despite being stifled for just 51 yards. But he took his lone catch 66 yards for a touchdown that would prove to be the difference in the game.

Henry derided his performance after the game as "soft," but he should get the chance for a similar workload with DeMarco Murray ruled out again. Though he must establish himself as a more reliable inside runner, Henry could find opportunities against Kansas City's 25th-ranked run defense after tallying two touchdowns and 54 yards on just nine carries in last season's meeting. A workhorse approach also would help limit the Titans' defensive vulnerability to the Chiefs' offense.

Follow Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz on Twitter @MikeMSchwartz.

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