Like Bernie, Hillary has chosen complexity over slogans on Twitter. Hillary also emits a sense of urgency, with “must” and “should” as similarly dominating themes — in this case, not aimed at her Democrat opponent, but at Trump.

As with Bernie, people and equality are major facets of her campaign. Health, families, and anti-violence policies are also a focus on Twitter. Wedged between two libertarians (of sorts), Hillary has branded herself as the gun control- and family-centered candidate.

Still, Trump’s aggressive and simpler messaging seems to be going farther. Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric is firing up his online following (on every platform but Twitter). Bernie’s followers are rallying around his more measured and complex language. Hillary has not enjoyed the same success on Twitter using the same tactic, with an engagement rate of just 24%. The cause could be a split in content strategy: Hillary has been pushed to appeal to both anti-Trump Republicans and Bernie-loving Democrats. Dragged to both the right and the left, Hillary’s mixed messages might be losing her core Democrat audience.

The table below shows Hillary’s most successful Facebook posts from April 22 to May 4 2016.

Hillary does best when she aims at Trump: this appeals to anti-Trump Republicans, Bernie supporters, and her core audience. If she continues to position herself as the anyone-but-Trump candidate, and simplifies her content to appeal to her core followers, she could capture the audience she needs to win.

The Next POTUS?

In six short months, the social media battlefield will be quiet and there will be just one left: either Trump, Hillary, or Bernie will be number 45. On social media, Trump is winning the election. He has more followers who are more enthusiastic than either of his Democrat rivals. But Bernie Sanders isn’t far behind: his followings are smaller, but deeply committed to taking the nomination — or at least committed to liking and commenting on his campaign online.

To catch up to Trump and compete with Hillary, Bernie would have to build his following online aggressively without losing their devotion, adding more than 9 million followers. Bernie has positioned himself as the candidate who can beat Hillary. Hillary has positioned herself as the candidate who can beat Trump.

Hillary Clinton’s following is large enough to push her towards the nomination, if only they could rally around the candidate as they did after the January 17 debate. Hillary’s social media following is a sleeping giant that could cause a massive upset online. If he candidate could find a way to balance her messaging — between fighting Trump, appealing to Berners, and connecting with her core supporters — she might have a shot at higher engagement rates on all platforms. And a better chance at the nomination.

As it stands, if people vote the way they click on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter, Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States.