In a complete reversal of rhetoric during the campaign, Labor has emerged as the potential government most likely to guarantee stability.

To understand why, it is necessary to look at the Senate. To get anything through the 76-member chamber, the government needs 39 votes. This time, as last time, neither Labor nor the Coalition is close. Last time, the Coalition had 33 votes and Labor 25. This time the Coalition will have fewer votes (at least 28 and perhaps up to 32 because five seats are in doubt, one of which is likely to go to the Greens). Labor will have at least 27 and perhaps up to 31.

Last time, if the Coalition wanted to get a measure through that Labor opposed, it had to do a deal with either the Greens or the Palmer United Party plus at least three of a grab-bag of independents.