(Photo Courtesy Robert Vigliotti via Flickr)

The Case for Wade Davis over Aroldis Chapman

History shows, a junk throwing closer is quite dependable.

The history of closers in baseball is a short one.

The institution of the fireman for professional ball clubs didn’t take hold until the early 1990’s. Chicago Cubs manager Herman Franks was a pioneer in the adoption of the “closer framework” by using Bruce Sutter almost exclusively for eighth or ninth inning situations.

There are essentially two types of closers in the game today, what I call the fire-ballers and the junk throwers.

Each type of closer has its merits, and after the addition of Wade Davis to the Cubs roster following departure of Aroldis Chapman, the stark contrast between these players begs the question of whether or not Davis’ skill is comparable to Chapman’s.

If we take a historical look at pitchers who changed the game with their arms, we can see that speed alone does not make a closer superior, and that the Cubs might have actually upgraded this essential position in their quest to repeat as World Champions.

Two pitches that changed the game with revolutionary style can be seen in Mordecai “Three-Finger” Brown’s curve ball, and the fastball of the Washington Senators’ Walter Johnson.

Brown was in peak physical condition for early 20th century baseball (Photo Courtesy Library of Congress via Flickr)

After suffering a mutilated hand in a farming accident, Mordecai used the mangled remnants of his right hand to perfect ball movement in a way that had never been seen in baseball’s young National League. Brown could throw curveballs that dropped off the table, and then bounced as the hitters swung through them. Brown pitched into three World Series championships with the Cubs and into a record 1.04 ERA in 1906, a mark that stands to this day for righties.

It was the movement on his pitches and Browns ability to fool hitters that made him a legend among even the greatest in the “dead ball” era. The Irish catcher for the Cubs, Jimmy Archer described Brown’s precision;

“One time I was warming up Brown and Bill Klem, the umpire, pushed me aside. He put a piece of paper the size of a half dollar on the ground. ‘ That’s the only target that fellow needs to pitch to’, Klem said, and he was right.”

The innovation of the curveball as a kill pitch would reign supreme for only a few years until the discovery of a farm boy from Kansas by the Washington Senators.

His Fastball at 94 MPH changed the game of Baseball (Photo Courtesy Rune Berg-Nilsen via Flickr)

Walter Johnson broke into the majors when Cliff Blankenship, a scout for the fledgling Senators, took a trip to Weiser, Idaho to see the arm that telegrams had touted, “Was burning up the southern Idaho league.”

Johnson’s fastball was like nothing that had been seen in major league baseball. Johnson destroyed batters as he struck out 303 hitters in 1910 with a 1.36 ERA.

When the Giants took on the Senators in the 1924 World Series, Johnson was called out of the bullpen in the top of the 9th inning in Game 7 with the score tied at 3–3. Senator’s manager Bucky Harris handed the ball to Johnson on the mound and looked the 17 year veteran in the eyes saying, “You’re the best we’ve got Walter, We’ve got to win or lose with you.”

Johnson didn’t disappoint, and reached back for a little extra on his fastball, holding the Giants scoreless for 4 innings until the Senators managed across the winning run in the 12th inning on an Earl McNeely ground ball that hit a pebble and bounced clear over the head of Giants third baseman Fred Lindstrom.

These players both revolutionized the pitcher position, one with ball movement, and the other with ball speed.

This is the existential question for ball clubs that still resonates to this day; which style gives a team the best ability to win late in games, the ball movement of a Wade Davis or the devastating power of an Aroldis Chapman.

Wade Davis uses his Cut Fastball, a Knuckle-Curve, and a sinking Curveball to get swing and miss stuff past the best hitters in the game. Moved from starting relieving in 2014 by the Kansas City Royals, he did not give up a home run for the entirety of his 71 appearances in relief.

The following year he only got better, posting 17 saves in 2015 on the way to winning a World Series, followed by 27 saves in 2016. He allowed 24 runs throughout the 3 seasons as closer for the Royals, issuing 59 walks and 234 strikeouts.

Aroldis Chapman uses his 106 mph fastball and “fast slider” to freeze hitters across the spectrum. Between 2012 and 2015 as closer for the Cincinnati Reds, he amassed 145 saves, 456 strikeouts, and a 1.92 ERA over that stretch. He was traded to the New York Yankees and then ended up with the Cubs for the final 28 games of the 2016 season en route to a World Series Championship.

Dependability in the closer role is defined through longevity. Mariano Rivera can be seen as the gold standard in closers, pitching for the New York Yankees over a 18 year career as a closer. He won 5 World Series Championships in that span.

Mo averaged 68 IP per year, averaging 62 K’s and 36 saves in that span. Rivera’s durability and consistency earned him MVP and Cy Young votes every year…as a closer.

Rivera used his legendary cut fastball, as well as seldom used two-seamer and four-seamer to destroy hitters in the later innings. More people have walked on the surface of the moon than have scored against Rivera in the playoffs. (Somewhere Luis Gonzales is smiling.)

When asked what his secret was with his fastballs, Rivera replied, “They all cut.”

Make no mistake, this was the most feared man in the game for nearly 2 decades (Photo Courtesy of Ricky via Flickr)

Wade Davis averaged 61 innings over his 3 seasons as a closer, while Chapman averaged 64 innings for his 4 all-star seasons with the Reds, which breeds continuity in average over those stretches for both pitchers. Wade Davis gave up an average 35 hits per season and average 8 earned runs per season, with a total of 3 home runs over the 3 year period — one home run per year as closer. Chapman gave up an average 34 hits per season and averaged 13.5 earned runs per season, with a total of 15 home runs over a 4 year period, or 3.75 homers per year.

In simple statistics, Davis has the slight edge, although it can be pointed out that he has been closer for only 3 years as opposed to Chapman’s 6 seasons as closer. Here’s where the lessons of Mariano Rivera comes into play, and the durability of a closer really defines the value of the pitcher at this crucial position.

Game 6 of the 2015 American League Championship Series saw Davis take the mound against a potent Blue Jay offense in the bottom of the 9th inning. Russel Martin singled to center field on the first pitch. Two stolen bases later, Martin was on 3rd base as Davis walked Kevin Pillar to put the winning run on first for the Jays. There were zero outs. But history would show that Davis had the Jays right where he wanted them. Over the next 13 pitches, Davis got strikeouts out of Dioner Navarro and Ben Revere, ending the game on a ground ball to third base from Josh Donaldson.

The legend of Wade “the machine” Davis had been etched into baseball lore. The Royals went on to win the World Series against the Mets, and the rest, they say, is history.

Eventually a fire-baller will reach back, and it won’t be there. (Photo Courtesy beisbolsinaloa via Flickr)

Game 7 of the 2016 World Series saw Cubs Manager Joe Maddon bring out Aroldis Chapman with 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th inning. Chapman had pitched the 6 out save the night before, and his fastball velocity was failing him.

Pitching with a 6–3 lead and a runner on first, Brandon Guyer hit a double on the 7th pitch of his at bat to bring the tying run to the plate. Rajai Davis fouled off 4 pitches to leverage his 2–2 count with a man on against Chapman, who reached back to hopefully put a heater by the Indians center fielder to get the out. Davis connected and lifted the ball over the left field wall into the camera bay.

The Cubs fans were stunned into silence, and Cleveland erupted as Davis stomped on home plate to tie the game. Chapman got a ground out from Coco Crisp before striking out Yan Gomes on 5 pitches to end the inning. But the damage had been done, and the save was blown.

Durability, especially in pressure situations, defines the closer role in modern baseball. Mariano Rivera didn’t have a fastball over 100 mph, but he had movement that got hitters to swing and miss.

Pitch control will give pitchers the edge when their fastball begins to fail them, this is the reason why most fastball pitchers careers end prematurely, and knuckle ballers can pitch into their mid 40’s.

The quality the Cubs need to look for, especially with a manager who will pull closers from the bullpen for five, six, or even seven outs, is the dependability of the closer in spite of how many innings have been pitched the night before.

Fastball velocity declines over a season, especially in back to back nights on the mound, but precision control using multiple pitches that move through the zone is the currency of a dominant closer, and the ability for a closer to make multiple appearances for multiple nights.

Wade Davis isn’t only a step up for the Cubs in the closer role; he is exactly the type of pitcher that will appeal to Joe Maddon’s extended save tendencies.

If Maddon had taken into account what all managers should, considering overextended fire-ballers, he would have never called for Chapman to pitch more than 3 outs in a save. Multiple innings tire out fastball pitchers, especially those who don’t have many other pitch options.

Aroldis Chapman almost blew the World Series for the Cubs, and it took Mike Montgomery (with a little help from Carl Edwards) to come in and close it out in the 10th inning to get the Cubs across the finish line.

In a season of 162, where games are played through October and hopefully into November, a dominating closer is only as reliable as his ability to get swing and miss stuff on short rest.

This is the measure of historic closers like Rivera, and why Wade Davis will be a better and more reliable closer for the Cubs than the stamina deficient Aroldis Chapman ever was, and barring injury, it won’t even be close.

Wade Davis gives everyone the opportunity to see this again on the Marquee (Photo Courtesy Shutter Runner via Flickr)

Bringing Wade Davis to Chicago was the best move Theo Epstien could have made to further the cause for a repeat championship.

One thing is definite at this point in spring training.

Much Like Mordecai Brown a century before, Wade Davis has and will continue to use ball movement to confound hitters, and keep the long ball the furthest thing from the minds of anxious Cubs fans. The radar gun might sell tickets, but a dependable closer will get a ball club wins, and in this aspect of the game, Wade Davis is truly a machine.

Big Ben Martin has a big deep love for his Chicago Cubs. They say that everything is bigger in Texas, and based on Big Ben’s love for the Cubs we would have to agree. When not playing the role of Big Ben he might be found as his alter ego Big Cynical Ben on Twitter.