At right is another way Romney could hit 279: Obama wins Ohio and New Hampshire, but Romney wins Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada. Longtime Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston says that while Republicans are doing better than they did in 2008, Democrats are still crushing them in early voting. Democrats got a huge lead in registration for two presidential elections straight. Romney hasn't lead a poll in Wisconsin since mid-August. Romney has lead in a few polls in Iowa, but never averaged a lead at Real Clear Politics.

This might be a good time to look at the predictions Rove has made in the past, ones we can already examine in this election. In March, Rove wrote about Obama's troublingly high "burn rate" -- that he wasn't raising money nearly at the rate he needed to given how much he was spending. Worse, Obama was spending so much not because of ads, but because of a huge staff, which would take longer to shrink. That sounded awfully ominous. But in October, the Obama campaign announced it had raised $1 billion.

Then, in June, Rove wrote that Obama was blowing all his money on ads, which was futile, because Democrats could never keep pace with Republican super PACs. Now, the Obama campaign is widely credited for driving down Romney's favorable ratings with those ads, especially in Ohio, a swing state that's crucial to both men. There were three times as many pro-Obama ads as pro-Romney ones from April through mid-September. Pro-Obama super PAC Priorities USA outraised pro-Romney super PAC Restore Our Future in September.

But maybe Rove will be right on his electoral vote prediction, the most important prediction of all, but his map suggests it's a longshot.

This article is from the archive of our partner The Wire.

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