Jesse Marx

The Desert Sun

A new Public Policy Institute Poll of California suggests that the top Democratic presidential contenders are statistically tied in the June 7 primary. Forty-six percent of likely Democratic voters in the Golden State say they’ll support Hillary Clinton and another 44 percent say they’ll support Bernie Sanders.

At first glance, these numbers look troubling for Clinton. Sanders is gaining ground. Some previous polls showed the Vermont senator trailing a month ago by seven points.

But considering that Sanders will need a total blowout in the California primary to claim the nomination, the latest numbers could easily provide Clinton supporters with relief. She’s only 74 delegates shy, and there are 546 at stake in California. Voters will also go to the polls on June 7 in New Jersey, where Clinton is ahead. That state has 126 delegates on the table, meaning the former Secretary of State might mathematically clinch the nomination before the polls close on the West Coast.

In that event, Sanders would need to continue lobbying super-delegates ahead of the July convention — a process that, while his supporters bemoan as unfair, he appears to have started too late.

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Jess Durfee, a Democratic National Convention member from San Diego, said last weekend’s private meeting with Sanders was the first formal conversation they’d had. Clinton’s people, on the other hand, issued a letter to all super-delegates — who can vote at the convention for whomever they please — on the same day she announced her candidacy, then followed it up with phone calls and emails.

“They were working it very early,” Durfee said, “as early as a year ago.”

Sanders knows this.

“In terms of super-delegates, we are way, way behind," he told late-night TV host Jimmy Kimmel on Thursday. "There were 400 super-delegates who announced their support for Secretary Clinton before anyone else was in the race, before the first ballot was cast. And I think that's just patently absurd and undemocratic and kind of dumb in the sense that when you make that judgment you want to know how the campaign is going, who is the strongest candidate.”

He then pointed out national polls show him beating presumptive Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in the November election: "If the Democrats want the candidate who is most likely to defeat Trump and beat him badly, I think you're looking at the guy.”

In California, Democrats use a proportional system, meaning the percentage of delegates allotted to candidates is roughly equal to the amount of votes they receive. There are 317 at stake statewide. On May 1, Clinton and Sanders caucuses in the 36th Congressional District — which includes most of Riverside County and all of Coachella Valley — each elected five people who could go to the convention in Philadelphia.

They differ from super-delegates in that they've pledged, and are therefore bound to support, a certain candidate.

So if Sanders wins 60 percent of the vote locally and Clinton wins 40, Sanders will get three delegates and Clinton will get two. But we won’t know for sure until the voters have their say.

There are 71 super-delegates throughout the state and another 158 delegates consisting of party leaders and elected officials and people chosen by the campaigns to help fulfill the party’s affirmative action goals. Added together, California contributes 546 delegates — nearly a quarter of all the delegates needed for one candidate to secure the nomination.

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For Republicans, the selection process is much simpler. Presidential candidates who win the most votes within a congressional district are awarded three delegates. Whoever wins the state gets another 13 delegates, bringing the total to 172.

It is, in other words, a winner-take-all approach by congressional district, which can work to the advantage of candidates who are willing to campaign in the same Democratic areas where they’re likely to lose in the general election. In 2014, for instance, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul spoke at the UC Berkeley campus on the topic of government surveillance and privacy, warming the hearts of any civil libertarians in the crowd.

Paul dropped out of the race earlier this year, but in left-wing Berkeley, he got a standing ovation.

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There’s plenty of strategy involved on the Democratic side, too. In 2008, Clinton spent a significant amount of time going after the super delegates like Sen. Diane Feinstein. Obama, on the other hand, kept chipping away at voters – and it paid off, big.

Clinton walked away from California with 204 delegates, winning the state on paper, but Obama grabbed 166, adding momentum to a string of early and necessary victories. It was possible because the California primary took place that year in February.

Pledged 36th Congressional District delegates

Republicans

Donald Trump

Gina Nestande

Nachhattar Chandi

Erbil Gunasti

Ted Cruz

James Battin

Julia DiBernardo

Venus Childress

Democrats

Hillary Clinton

Ginny Foat

Mary Jane Sanchez

Kay Mills

Robert Moon

Richard Noble

Bernie Sanders

Lorraine Salas

Heather Adams

Paula Marvin

Joseph Aszterbaum

Bryan Hash

Note: the Democrats' list remains unofficial until the results of the June 7 primary come in and delegates are ranked as a proportion of the vote.

Jesse Marx is The Desert Sun political reporter. Reach him at jesse.marx@desertsun.com or @marxjesse on Twitter.