Martin O’Malley’s political career, which started on the streets of Baltimore, may also end there: Half of Democratic insiders in the early states believe this week’s riots have hurt the former mayor’s already long-shot presidential hopes.

The POLITICO Caucus, our weekly bipartisan survey of the most important activists, operatives and elected officials in Iowa and New Hampshire, found that Democrats are evenly split over whether racial unrest will be a minor or significant issue in the presidential campaign.


“I really like and respect O’Malley, so it pains me to write that I think the Baltimore violence will essentially disqualify him as a viable presidential candidate for a broad swath of Americans,” said a New Hampshire Democrat, who – like all 73 respondents – completed the questionnaire anonymously in order to speak candidly. “The renaissance of Baltimore has been such a huge part of his biography when he speaks to Democrats, so when your TV shows Baltimore on fire, riot police on the streets and baseball at an empty Camden Yards, one can only wonder what kind of lasting progress he made there.”

On the Republican side, six in 10 insiders think the turmoil between African Americans and the police has injured Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul politically, though three-quarters of Republicans believe it will either be a non-issue or a minor one.

“Rand is advocating, in part, for reduced sentences for non-violent crimes,” said an Iowa Republican. “However, all anyone is going to see and hear is ‘Put more criminals back out on the street,’ and overlay that with the images that everyone is watching from the mayhem in Baltimore. How does he argue that being softer on crime would alleviate the rioting???”

Here are the six main takeaways from Week 12 of The POLITICO Caucus:

Changing his travel plans may not have helped O’Malley.

The former mayor and governor canceled paid speaking gigs in Europe to return home after the rioting on Monday. The attempt at damage control, which included an op-ed, failed to quell growing doubts about O’Malley’s rationale for seeking the presidency and spotlighted his controversial approach to policing during his eight years as mayor from 1999 to 2007.

“Returning to Baltimore was an odd move, especially considering there’s not much he can actually do about the unrest,” said a New Hampshire Democrat. “By coming back he also made it easier to link his own police policies as mayor to the current situation.”

“Any mention of Baltimore will now draw people’s attention to the events of the last few days — not any of the progress he claims to have made while mayor,” said an Iowa Democrat.

“This is absolutely a hit on his executive experience,” added another. “He is running on his ability to turn Baltimore around and to lead Maryland in a progressive direction. His city is now seen for riots and racial injustice and his chosen successor [former Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown] lost the race to succeed him as governor.”

Several Democrats complained about O’Malley’s embrace of zero-tolerance policing tactics, which have been widely criticized this week by people like David Simon, the creator of the HBO crime drama “The Wire.” More than 108,400 arrests were made in 2005, according to the Baltimore Sun. For context, only about 600,000 people live in the city.

“The Anyone-But-Clinton crowd is on the left, and police-racial issues are a litmus test now,” said an Iowa Democrat.

O’Malley’s campaign-in-waiting said Thursday night that Baltimore saw a greater reduction of serious crimes during his tenure than any other major U.S. city. “When O’Malley was elected mayor in 1999, Baltimore was the most violent, addicted, and abandoned city in America,” spokeswoman Lis Smith emailed reporters .”His policies — including proactive policing, policing of the police, increased drug treatment, and earlier intervention with at-risk youth — fundamentally changed the trajectory of the city of Baltimore.”

Six in 10 Republicans agreed that the events of this week are damaging to O’Malley, and many of those who didn’t argued that it’s not damaging because he was already irrelevant. “It’s difficult for O’Malley to sink any lower than the 1 percent current polls have him at,” said a Granite Stater. “Right now, he has the ability to luxuriate in the purity of his irrelevance.”

Most think Rand mishandled the Baltimore blow-up.

Paul has closely identified himself with criminal justice reform, traveling to Ferguson, Mo., last year and spending a lot of time engaging with the African-American community.

More than six in 10 Republicans surveyed said that they thought the violence in Baltimore would benefit candidates who back more traditional Republican positions on crime at Paul’s expense.

“The more there is chaos both abroad and at home — the less Republican caucus-goers are going to take a risk on libertarian-oriented policies that Paul is selling,” said an Iowa Republican. “On the domestic front, personal security still trumps civil liberties with GOP voters.”

“The events in Baltimore break down neatly along ideological lines,” added a New Hampshire GOPer. “For Republican voters, this is another reason to stress the rule of law and a strong police presence. For Democrats, this is another instance of the breakdown of race relations and the need for ‘criminal justice reform.’ Both are unhelpful for Rand, who risks looking soft on crime, and [Hillary] Clinton, who now has to explain the change in tone on her tough on crime rhetoric from the 1990s to her speech this week talking about the need for cameras on cops everywhere.”

Democrats were evenly split 50-50 on whether Baltimore is good or bad for Paul.

The third of Republican insiders who think Baltimore is a plus for Paul predicted he will ultimately get credit for tackling this tough issue once the imagery of the moment dies down.

“While the violence is inexcusable, the frustration and peaceful protests are legitimate,” said an Iowa Republican. “Rand Paul is the only Republican who’s getting it. If the GOP fails to understand why people are unhappy with what they’re getting from the criminal justice system, then the Democrats hold the White House. It really is that simple.”

Another Iowa Republican staked out a more nuanced position: “Baltimore probably tilts to helpful for Rand to get his message out, but for every non-traditional supporter he appeals to on the issue, he likely turns off a social conservative he’s desperately trying to secure.”

Since announcing his presidential campaign last month, Paul has discernibly shifted his tone. On Tuesday, he told conservative radio host Laura Ingraham that he was “glad” his train hadn’t stopped in Baltimore on the way back to D.C. the night before as he expressed concern about “the plight of police.” Then, during the same radio hit, he blamed the violence on “the breakdown of the family structure, the lack of fathers, the lack of sort of a moral code in our society.”

This was too much for many Democratic respondents to The Caucus, who pointed out that the senator’s 22-year-old son was charged just last week for driving under the influence of alcohol after crashing into a parked car.

“He would have gotten a pass on the incident regarding his son because it’s not fair game, but he made it fair game with his remarks about fathers’ responsibilities for their sons in Baltimore,” said a New Hampshire Democrat. “Voters don’t like hypocrisy.”

There’s bipartisan agreement: Hillary’s tough-on-crime rhetoric from the ‘90s makes no difference now.

Seventy percent of both Republican and Democratic insiders said the 21-year-old crime bill signed by Bill Clinton, which temporarily led to 100,000 more cops on the street while fueling the massive surge in incarceration, is neither helpful nor hurtful to Hillary Clinton’s presidential hopes.

After the former secretary of state delivered a speech Wednesday calling for the end of mass incarceration and recommended police departments have their officers wear body cameras, Paul issued a press release pointing out that she was a cheerleader for the policies that created the underlying problems at First Lady: “Not only is Hillary Clinton trying to undo some of the harm inflicted by the Clinton administration, she is now emulating proposals introduced by Senator Rand Paul over the last several years, and we welcome her to the fight.”

An overwhelming number of Democratic insiders said Bernie Sanders could not carry their state against the Republican nominee in a general election | Getty

Two-thirds of Republican insiders don’t think this line of attack has legs, while one-third said it will be harmful for Clinton.

“Hillary is advocating for sentencing and prison reforms that lighten punishment for certain crimes,” said an Iowan. “That’s her position, not some long-forgotten crime bill her husband signed.”

“Opinions on Hillary are set,” said another. “All these issues do is cement what you already think.”

One in five Democrats said the 1994 efforts will be helpful, while one in 10 said they are harmful.

“Bill Clinton showed that you can reduce crime and offer support to law enforcement without blowing up race relations in the country,” said a New Hampshire Democrat.

Democrats are divided over how big of a deal this issue will be in 2016.

About half of Democratic insiders think that the racial unrest will become a significant issue in 2016, and the other half say it will be a minor issue.

“This is our 7.8 earthquake,” said a New Hampshire Democrat. “Just like Nepal, we should have expected it, and just like Nepal we did nothing to prepare but chose to ignore. The difference is Nepal is poor, and we are rich. A pox on us!”

“We are now likely at a tipping point and can expect to see more marches and rallies moving toward the presidential elections,” said another. “Moreover, this is not simply a matter of racial tensions. It also involves income inequality and the fact that we are leaving millions of our citizens behind. Our candidates are going to be pressed for their plans to address these issues.”

The Democrats who said it will be a minor issue explained why it is such a tough topic to talk about.

“Man, this is complicated,” said another New Hampshire Democrat. “Libertarian Republicans and progressive Democrats both have been complaining about the militarization of the police, and the use of Homeland Security resources to obtain military equipment. On the other hand, most cops are good cops, and I think most people get that. Candidates will have to walk a fine line on how to be supportive of racial justice without throwing good cops under the bus. These guys are out there every day, working for us and putting their lives at risk, but meanwhile way too many African Americas are getting killed or incarcerated.”

Republicans were much more likely to say that racial tensions will be a minor issue.

“They don’t involve constituencies that vote in Republican primaries,” said a New Hampshire Republican.

“There have been too many incidents for them not to matter, but the campaign will be about bigger-scope issues,” said another.

Many Republican strategists said the party needs to offer smart solutions.

“Republicans need to be careful to not pigeonhole this simply as a failure of government and a repudiation of the Great Society program,” said an Iowan.

Very few take Bernie Sanders seriously.

The Vermont independent senator formally kicked off his bid for the Democratic nomination on Thursday, but more than 90 percent of Democratic insiders in the two early states said there is no way Sanders could win their state’s caucus or primary. GOP insiders answered similarly.

The same overwhelming number said Sanders could not carry their state against the Republican nominee in a general election.

“A socialist winning outside of Vermont? Hard to believe,” said a New Hampshire Democrat.

“The Clinton campaign should be ecstatic,” said another. “Sen. Sanders gives Hillary the benefit of a credible primary opponent who has absolutely no chance of winning. She can now comfortably continue her progressive window-dressing while still looking practical and moderate in comparison.”

“He isn’t the right messenger,” said a third. “He will get some support in our primary. But, people want to win, and New Hampshire Democrats have been very astute in recent years in nominating candidates who can win, like [Sen.] Jeanne Shaheen, [former Gov.] John Lynch and [Gov.] Maggie Hassan, even if the candidates are more moderate than the primary base voters. They will want Secretary Clinton to be more moderate than Bernie Sanders because they will want a candidate who can win.”

As a Republican put it, “he is only a fly in the ointment.”

Several GOP insiders lamented that Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) did not get into the race. “Unlike the Senator from the state on New Hampshire’s southern border, Sanders doesn’t have the polish of a Warren needed to play in New Hampshire,” said a Republican there. “The Granite State has typically eschewed the angry candidates — Pat Buchanan in 1996 aside — in favor of the more composed.”

New Hampshire Democrats are far more likely to believe Sanders will pull Clinton to the left than the Iowans.

Overall, Democratic insiders were evenly split when asked whether the Sanders challenge will force the frontrunner to tack left. But opinions varied by state: A majority in New Hampshire did, but a majority in Iowa did not.

“He’s just a gnat buzzing around the Scooby Van right now,” said an Iowa Democrat. “She has written off the college towns and Fairfield to Sanders. But that is his ceiling.”

“He absolutely will pull her to the left in New Hampshire,” responded a Democrat there. “He will enjoy significant support in western cities and towns bordering Vermont — Hanover, Lebanon, Claremont and Keene — and may earn some key liberal supporters on the college campuses, in Concord and along the Seacoast too.”

Iowa Democrats said that Clinton, to the extent she goes left, will be forced in that direction by the outside influence of Warren and others like New York Mayor Bill de Blasio or O’Malley.

“Clinton has already been pulled to the proverbial left — a great example is her focus on economic inequalities and criminal justice reform,” said an Iowa Democrat. “But do I think she’s going to go down the single-payer route because Bernie is in the race? No. Will she be as hard charging against Wall Street as Bernie? No. Will this enable him to garner support? Yes.”

A lot of Republicans said it all depends on how seriously progressive activists take him. “Folks thought little of Howard Dean in the beginning as well,” a New Hampshire Republican said of another Vermonter.

“Not sure if HRC will take the bait,” said an Iowa Republican, “but it’ll be entertaining as hell to watch Sanders try.”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus (not all of whom participated this week):

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.