Political Roundup for June 19, 2018

Governor:

ME-Gov: Its been over a week since Maine voted and Janet Mills (D) out polled Adam Cote (D) by almost 5 points and we still don’t know who the Democratic nominee will be thanks to Rank Choice Voting. But as all the 3rd and 4th place choices get filtered out Maine hopes to get an answer as to who “won” sometime this week (maybe).

NY-Gov: Former Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner (D) will run for governor as an independent. Miner had been heavily recruited by Democrats to run for Congress in NY-24 versus Rep. John Katko (R). Miner was appointed by Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) in 2012 as co-chair of the New York State Democratic Committee. She left that position after a short time following some very public disagreements with Cuomo’s policies. Miner’s new party will run under the banner of the Serve America Movement which was formed in 2016 by people disaffected by the existing party structure. If Miner’s party gets 50,000 votes in November it will earn ballot status in New York for the next four years. Creating a liberal party focused on issues of concern to Upstate voters could be one of the goals of Miner’s gubernatorial campaign. Miner will join Cynthia Nixon (D) who is the candidate of the Working Families Party and Howie Hawkins of the Green Party as potential left-wing 3rd party alternatives to Andrew Cuomo on the November ballot. Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro is the Republican candidate.

PA-Gov: Republican Scott Wagner’s campaign is calling out the B- rated Franklin and Marshall for being bad pollsters. Wagner’s campaign argues that their latest gubernatorial poll which gave Gov. Tom Wolf (D) a 19 point lead among registered voters is a flawed poll which created a D+10 electorate when the largest Democrat advantage since 2006 was the D+6 Obama had in 2008. Of course no matter how valid your points are when you are arguing with pollsters your campaign is probably off message.

SC-Gov: Rep. Ralph Norman (R) has endorsed John Warren for governor (R) in the Republican primary runoff versus Gov. Henry McMaster (R). Norman had backed third place finisher Catherine Templeton. If an outsider like Warren hopes to beat McMaster consolidating support from former supporters of other candidates is key.

TX-Gov: Democrat Lupe Valdez’s long shot campaign for governor is facing resistance from some progressive and immigration activist who don’t view the openly lesbian Latina as progressive enough. These progressive activist do however seem to love good old Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke (D) who is running for Senate so chances are they will be turning out to vote in November no matter what.

Senate:

FL-Sen: Who is Bill Nelson? At least that is what many Florida Latino voters want to know. While Gov. Rick Scott (R) has been very active working with, engaging and courting Latino voters Sen. Bill Nelson (D) has mostly been M.I.A. The lack of outreach and connection to the Latino community Sen. Nelson has is causing a small panic among some Democrat operatives who worry that Nelson’s complete lack of interest in Florida’s Latino community could hurt him in what is a key swing group in Florida.

MO-Sen: A Democrat press release internal poll from Global Strategy Group has Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) up on Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) by a six point margin. If you believe this internal “poll” which gives McCaskill 44% unfavorable but still has her in front then we got an Arch to sell you.

ND-Sen: In his latest TV ad Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) is linking Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) to Hillary Clinton. Our guess is that this ad would be a lot more effective if Hillary Clinton was President instead of selling books at Costco. The latest Mason-Dixon poll which was commissioned by Valley News Live shows Kevin Cramer leading Heidi Heitkamp by a 48% to 44% margin with 8% undecided. Full poll details HERE.

WI-Sen: State Sen. Leah Vukmir (R) has released really good ad in which she plays the death threats she received on her home phone from left-wing lunatics who didn’t like her position on reforming government employee unions. As the death threats are played Vukmir can be seen sitting at her kitchen table next to a holstered handgun. You can see the ad HERE. I think it goes without saying that politics in America shouldn’t involve getting death threats at your home.

WV-Sen: Sen. Joe Manchin (D) used taxpayer funds to pay for his travel to California for a lucrative campaign fundraiser, according to official expenditure reports. Manchin raised over $100,000 during his taxpayer financed swing through the Golden State.

House:

FL-27: Hillary Clinton endorsed 77 year old Donna Shalala (D) for Congress. Shalala, who served as Secretary of Health and Human Services under President Bill Clinton also ran the scandal tarred Clinton Foundation. While having ties to Hillary Clinton may be a benefit in the Democratic primary the skeletons of the Clinton Foundation could be a liability in the general election in this open D+5 seat of retiring Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)

KY-6: Amy McGrath (D) apparently felt just as bad about Donald Trump getting elected President of the United States as she did about the murder of 2,977 people on 9/11. Everything that is wrong with politics today can probably be summed up by Amy McGrath thinking that is a normal thing to think. You can watch her clip HERE and be disgusted for yourself.

MD-6: David Trone (D) just added another $5 million to his congressional campaign bring his total self funding contribution for his run for the Democratic nomination for this gerrymandered D+6 to $10.3 million! Trone had spent $13.3 million of his own money in his closing campaign for the Democratic nomination in MD-8 in 2016. We are not sure if this is a Brewster’s Millions type situation but Trone clearly has a ton of money to burn.

MN-5: The August 14th Democratic primary in this D+26 district could be a bellwether for what kind of political party the Democrats want to be. This weekend the DFL gave their endorsement for the August primary to state Rep. Iihan Omar (D) who has made some highly controversial statements about Israel and the Middle East. Omar has called Israel “evil“, voted against a bill in the Minnesota House that was designed to stop Minnesota public colleges and universities from contracting with anti-Israel BDS vendors and asked for “compassion” for ISIS terrorist recruits. Omar is facing state Sen. Patricia Torres Ray, former state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Frank Drake and Jamal Abdulahi in the primary.

NY-11: The Chamber of Commerce has launched and ad buy on behalf of Rep. Dan Donovan (R) ahead of the June 26th primary with former Rep. Michael Grimm (R). Considering how expensive New York’s media market is we have to assume this was a small cable buy in Staten Island done to generate free media and positive press for Donovan.

NY-24: The DCCC has gone all out to help Juanita Perez Williams (D) in the Democratic primary versus Dana Balter for the right to face Rep. John Katko (R). Perez Williams and the DCCC have coordinated and shared the cost of two new 15 second ads. Democrats are hoping Perez Williams will have better success running in a D+3 congressional district than she did running as a Democrat for Mayor in the heavily Democratic City of Syracuse last year. Perez won only 38% of the vote last year and became the 1st Democrat to lose a Mayoral election in Syracuse since 1997.

State, Local & Other:

NJ-HD 5: Assemblyman Arthur Barclay (D) who was arrested on June 7 on domestic violence charges is expected to resign his seat in the State Assembly. The timing of Barclay’s legal issues and resignation comes as Assembly Democrats are trying to pass a state budget. Barclay is part of the South Jersey delegation that is expected to back efforts by Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin (D) to pass his own budget and not one advocated by Gov. Phil Murphy (D). This gives Coughlin one less vote on Thursday, as state law requires at least seven days to pass before a special election convention can be held. The 6’8” former college basketball player is accused of punching his girlfriend in the face and braking her nose.