The 2017 draft class may go down as one of the best in Canucks history. While Kole Lind and Michael DiPietro have received more attention and Petrus Palmu has become the poster boy for the increased emphasis the Canucks’ amateur scouting department has placed on analytics, Jonah Gadjovich was their best value bet of the 2017 draft. Finishing his draft season with more goals than any other draft-eligible forward in the OHL and an expected likelihood of success above 50%, Gadjovich had the profile of a first round pick. Since then, Gadjovich’s production has stalled a bit, but he’s also shown signs of improvement in some key areas, so he checks in at number 7 on our midterm rankings.

Numbers

Gadjovich’s production took a bit of a dip this year, falling from the impressive 1.25 points per game he saw in his draft year to 1.14. As a result, draft analytics shine a less impressive light on Gadjovich than they did a season ago, as his expected success percentage fell from 51.45% to 24.5%. That’s still great for a late second round pick, but through this lens, Gadjovich looks less like the home run he did in June.

As one might expect, the impressiveness of Gadjovich’s cohort also took a hit because of his dip in production. Jan Bulis is one of his matches now, though, so that’s fun.

Usually, a player failing to improve on his draft-year production would be taken as a bad sign, but in Gadjovich’s case, there are some important factors to consider. First, Gadjovich’s stint with the Canadian World Junior squad kept him out of action for a large chunk of the OHL season. His shooting percentage also took a huge hit, falling five percentage points. In spite of all this, he maintained the second-highest shot rate in the OHL at a whopping 5.2 shots per game, behind only Florida Panthers first-rounder Owen Tippett. Overall, Gadjovich’s mildly disappointing counting stats were more influenced by bad luck than any deficiency in his play.

For the most part, he had a positive influence on his teammates’ goal-differential. Most of Gadjovich’s common linemates performed better with Gadjovich than away from him. The obvious exceptions were Nick Suzuki and Kevin Hancock, but while both players performed better away from Gadjovich than Gadjovich did away from them, all three players saw the highest share of goals playing together.

That’s the biggest red flag when it comes to Gadjovich. He’s had the benefit of playing with some great teammates. Nick Suzuki is arguably the OHL’s best player and Petrus Palmu and Kevin Hancock are no slouches either. It’s not something fans need to be too concerned about, but it’s worth noting just how much of Gadjovich’s offense relied on Suzuki, a player that is definitely his superior.

That’s probably the biggest reason why Gadjovich wasn’t a first-round pick, but it’s important to remember that the Canucks nabbed him at 55 and there are no perfect players available in the late second round. Coaches also don’t put players together for no reason. Gadjovich earned his spot with Suzuki by working hard and being the best person for the job. At the end of the day, you always take a player who scores goals over one who doesn’t, regardless of who his linemeates were.

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Scouting Report

The term “power forward” gets thrown around too often, especially with regards to prospects; but Gadjovich truly has played that type of game at the OHL level. He’s got a man’s frame at 6’2″ and 209 lbs. and he uses it to his advantage especially on the rush. He’s not a dynamic skater, but his lateral movement is strong and combined with his size and strength he maneuvers around opposing defenders with ease. He’s also not afraid to play a physical game when needed.

Offensively, Gadjovich has an enviable toolkit for any second-round player. He’s got good offensive instincts and a great release on his shot, which he gets off frequently. His greatest asset, however, is his ability to play the role of garbage man. Gadjovich has strong offensive instincts and coupled with his big body and good hand-eye coordination, he’s had a ton of success crashing the net and looking for tip-ins and rebounds. His passing has also improved this year, with his primary assist rate increasing despite his overall dip in offence. He’s also a strong two-way presence who plays a top role on both special teams units for Owen Sound.

The biggest deficiency in Gadjovich’s game that scouts usually point out it his skating, but this is a bit of a red herring. There’s nothing wrong with Gadjovich’s stride, and he doesn’t struggle with turns or skating backwards. The only real issue he really has is with acceleration. For such a young player, Gadjovich looks like a grown man and has the frame to back it up. Once he gets it up to speed it’s a force to be reckoned with, but that can take a few strides. Luckily, he’s shown signs of improvement in this regard, but he’ll need to work on increasing his power and explosiveness off the first stride before he’s NHL-ready.

For what it’s worth, I think Jonah Gadjovich is a better prospect at this stage of his career than Brendan Gaunce was. Gaunce was once considered a top-3 prospect for the organization, so that just goes to show how far the organization’s amateur scouting department has come. Even if Gadjovich can’t make a dramatic improvement in his speed; he has the size, instincts, and awareness to succeed in a fourth-line role at the NHL level. If he can get quicker, he may end up looking like one of the biggest steals of the 2017 class.

CanucksArmy’s 2018 Midterm Prospect Rankings

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