This month, we have nearly a perfect bell curve distribution of votes, except for a minority vote that says less than 4.5 million sq kilometers. 750 votes were cast.

PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK – WUWT (acronym for WattsUpWithThat.com)

1. Extent Projection: 5.0 million square kilometers

2. Methods/Techniques: web poll of readers

3. Rationale: Composite of projections by readers, projection bracket with the highest response is the one submitted.

4. Executive Summary: Website devoted to climate and weather polled its readers for the best estimate of 2011 sea ice extent minimum by choosing bracketed values from a web poll which can be seen at:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/27/august-arcus-forecast-poll-what-will-the-september-nsidc-arctic-minimum-extent-be/

18.27 % chose the value 5.0 to 5.1 Million sq km2 or greater, down from the previous month projection of 5.1-5.2 million square kilometers with 10.93% choosing 4.9 to 5.0 million square kilometers as the second highest vote. Over one third of all votes cast fell in the range of 4.9 to 5.2 million square kilometers, with 37.2% of all votes in that range.

A minority opinion emerged with 8.53% of votes cast for less than 4.5 million square kilometers.

5. Estimate of Forecast Skill: none

Outlook submission deadline: Sunday, 31 July 2011. All Outlooks should be sent to: Helen Wiggins, ARCUS

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