Price Range Questions

A price range question is a type of question in which you are asked to set a price range for an asset over a certain time period. It can be the maximum and minimum price during a particular period, open and close prices, etc. Your goal is to try to estimate the actual minimum and maximum values during that period.

To calculate your points we are computing the sum of absolute user’s errors for both min/max values and calculating user’s score with a correlation of the error and specified borders. It depends on current value of the asset and its volatility.

Range questions are the second most common kind of question on the Cindicator platform. Currently, they come in several subtypes — weeklies, which ask the lowest and highest price point vs BTC of a crypto asset over the course of a week, and daily spot predictions for standard assets such as S&P 500 over the course of a 24 hour period (sometimes a 3-day window). Although the range questions include a variety of assets, there are some common techniques to learn that will work well for any asset tracked with a candlestick chart.

First off, let’s unpack the phrasing of the Freshdesk explanation, and put a little thought into how the scoring works. As you can see, the formula for points given starts with +75, and then calculates a number to subtract from that. This number is found by subtracting the user input minimum and maximum from the real min/max value of the asset. These are absolute values, so it takes into account error either above or below the real price. This value is then checked to see if it falls within a corridor of 0.35 * the volatility of the asset.

To gain positive points, your answers must fall within this specific range corridor near the actual high and low values of the asset. The size of the range corridor is decided based on the volatility of the asset, by a proprietary algorithm. While you cannot calculate the exact acceptable input range of any given asset, you do know that assets with more volatility (BTC, on a day of large movement) have more give for positive points than an asset with less volatility. Any guesses outside of this range will generate a negative point value.

In the end, the totals are multiplied out, and that number is subtracted from 75, giving us a total point range of +75 to -75. The figure for volatility reflects overall price movement, not percentage movement. The basic concept is that the more a price is moving in a day, the more leeway you have in your guesses, so scale them accordingly.

Before going any further, make sure you are familiar with key terms and concepts — support and resistance, retracement, and identifying trends. It will go a long way to improve your understanding — not just of the Cindicator app — but also of charting more generally, which is a must if you intend to have and manage your own money in open markets.

There are many strategies you can use for answering range questions, and I will discuss several I have used here. Which is best depends strongly on the amount of time you want to spend. First, let’s detail the quick and dirty method. It won’t take into account the nuances of a more advanced method, but it beats simple guesswork.

Completing the Pattern

When I first got into asset prediction and Cindicator, it took me a while to get my legs. I was, and still am, learning all the ins and outs of financial markets and the platforms used to access them. At the time, I didn’t know much beyond the basics, but I developed my own method for answering the daily spot prices. The same method works for weekly predictions, but only for assets with a strong and established trend that is likely to continue throughout the prediction window. To this day, I mainly use this method, combined with TA and charting for the majority of my predictions.

Candlestick charts are ultimately patterns, oscillating patterns that tend to repeat again and again, on different levels forming overall trends. Knowing this, and knowing that what goes up must come down, we can use a quick visual analysis to give us an idea of how to answer a range question.

For daily prices the protocol goes like this: look at the previous day bar, look at the bar for the day. Identify if it looks as though it will be a day of sales, or buys, and how strongly it will compare to the previous day. Looking back through 7–10 ticks will give you an idea of how large the daily movements are, and an idea of overall range to work with. Then complete the pattern, by extending it into the future extrapolating from the existing trend. Often, I try to clear my mind, cover the name of the asset and consider the chart on its own, separate from any other knowledge I have of the asset. After I have formulated the first guess, I then scan cryptopanic and Reddit for any major news developments over the last week, taking into my mind all I know about the news sentiment regarding the asset. Then, I make another guess and compare the two to come to a final answer. If it has not become clear, I might further check the depth chart on Binance, and look to see where large buys and sells are located on the books to get a good idea of support and resistance.

I also look at the week range and note the total price change regardless of retracement. When using this method for daily prices, we can almost always guarantee at least half of the points. How is this possible? Simple — by finding the bottom or top of the trend. When looking at daily charts, we see something like this: