SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA — Hospitals around Southern California will be overwhelmed with coronavirus patients in nearly all possible scenarios for infection rates, according to a ProPublica report using data from the Harvard Global Health Institute.

The report backs up the repeated calls by public health officials to "flatten the curve" — slowing the spread of the virus through social distancing in order to avoid a scenario where more Americans are infected by COVID-19 than can receive care at their local hospital. But even under "moderate" infection levels, all of the Southern California cities and counties modeled by researchers would see an influx of patients far greater than their hospitals are currently equipped to handle, ProPublica found.

The study looked at hospital capacity in referral regions — cities and counties — across the U.S., using data from 2018. In Southern California, it included Los Angeles, Orange County, Palm Springs, San Bernardino, San Diego and Ventura. Researchers considered different infection levels — 20%, 40%, or 60% of the population — and stretched them over six, 12 and 18-month timelines. A "moderate" infection level would mean 40% of American adults contracting COVID-19 over 12 months, according to the Harvard team. By contrast, in a worst-case scenario, 60% of the population could be infected within just six months.

Hospital capacities in each region Even using researchers' "moderate" scenario, all of the Southern California regions modeled will need to expand their hospital capacities to accommodate likely surges in coronavirus patients. Each region's intensive care units, where severe COVID-19 cases are treated, will also be overwhelmed unless they are expanded, the researchers found. Los Angeles would be overwhelmed in the "moderate" scenario, getting an influx of 647,000 patients and requiring 21,600 beds over one year. That's 3.3 times the region's current capacity.



In Orange County, hospitals would receive about 220,000 coronavirus patients in the moderate scenario, requiring 7,320 beds over one year — or 3.3 times the region's current capacity.

In the Palm Springs/Rancho Mirage area, hospitals would receive 26,800 patients needing 900 beds over one year in the moderate scenario, which is 2.2 times the region's current capacity.

The San Bernardino area would see an estimated 197,000 patients over a year in the moderate scenario, requiring 6,560 beds — 3.1 times its hospitals' current capacity. The San Diego area would receive about 247,000 coronavirus patients over one year in the moderate scenario, needing 8,240 beds over one year, which is 4.2 times the region's current capacity.