Bill Scher is a contributing editor to Politico Magazine, and co-host of the Bloggingheads.tv show “The DMZ.”

Progressive populists thought Randy Bryce, with his ironworker résumé and his left-wing platform, was the working-class hero Democrats needed. He lost the Wisconsin 1st Congressional District by 8 points.

Amy McGrath burst onto the political scene with an eye-grabbing ad that touted how she overcame sexism to become a Marine fighter pilot. She lost the Kentucky 6th by 4 points.


Andrew Gillum made progressive hearts pound when he zinged Ron DeSantis as the candidate who “the racists think [is] racist.” Ron DeSantis will be the next governor of Florida.

Democrats had a strong midterm election: winning the House and seizing seven governorships. Women led the way, making up a majority of those who flipped seats. People of color won notable victories in predominantly white House districts that had favored Donald Trump. And yet there were glaring weak spots: no House pickups in the critical swing states of Ohio and North Carolina, and only two in Florida, in its bluest parts.

Democrats didn’t win with the pet strategies many progressives have insisted Democrats must adopt to retake the presidency in 2020. They didn’t run on Medicare for all. They didn’t respond in kind to Trump’s waging of culture war. By and large, they ran as upbeat bipartisan problem-solvers who would improve upon the Affordable Care Act, while painting their Republican opponents as tools for corporate special interests. Where that mix of “Populism Lite” and pragmatism worked best to poach Republican seats on Trump turf was largely in the Midwest and the Rust Belt.

In other words, the midterms strongly suggest Democrats should find a nominee who can serve America a steaming pot of Midwestern Nice.

However, Democrats are not well positioned to replicate that model in 2020, because their Midwest bench is not deep. Most of the Democrats expected to jump into the 2020 presidential race hail from the bluest parts of the country, such as Vermont’s Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts’ Elizabeth Warren, New York’s Kirsten Gillibrand, New Jersey’s Cory Booker and California’s Kamala Harris. All year, they have been trying to outdo one another in showing off their pugnacity and policy ambition, which is not what worked last night.

Democrats won last night in a mix of places. Several won in the reddish parts of blue states like Illinois, New York and New Jersey. Some caught Republicans sleeping in quirky, deep-red districts like the urban Oklahoma 5th and the wealthy, coastal South Carolina 1st. But where Democrats struck hardest last night was in the Midwest and Rust Belt states that Trump had narrowly won in 2016.

Aided by a court-ordered redrawing of district lines, Democrats gained four House seats in Pennsylvania as Gov. Tom Wolf and Sen. Bob Casey cruised to reelection, raising hopes for Democrats that the state is coming back to the fold. The most politically divided Pennsylvania district in which Democrats triumphed was the 7th. To win there, attorney Susan Wild promised to be a “bipartisan force” and reject “extreme partisanship.” At the same time, she sought to impress the blue-collar workers of Allentown by talking about how her mom took her “to the picket lines … and taught me about fighting for workers’ rights.”

In Wisconsin and Michigan, Democrats wrested away Republican governorships thanks to Tony Evers and Gretchen Whitmer, candidates known more for their pleasant demeanor than partisan fire. And even though Randy Bryce flamed out in Wisconsin, two women with a more pragmatic approach picked off suburban House districts in Michigan that voted for Trump. Elissa Slotkin introduced herself to Michigan’s 8th as a national security aide with a bipartisan pedigree, having worked for Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush, but who also believes that “corporate money” is “poisoning Washington.” Haley Stevens, in the 11th District, leaned heavily on her work for the Obama administration on the “auto rescue” to appeal to Michigan’s can-do spirit and present herself as a strong voice for manufacturing and infrastructure.

Democrats also snagged two Republican-hold House seats in Iowa, a state that swung hard from Obama to Trump. While Democrats came up short in the gubernatorial contest there, they won the majority of the statewide House vote, suggesting that the entire state may be primed to swing back two years hence.

Iowa’s 1st District might be the most working-class district won by the Democrats in the nation, with slightly more than a quarter of its residents holding a college degree. Twenty-nine year old Abby Finkenauer regularly tagged incumbent Republican Rep. Rod Blum as a creature of Washington, and she put a populist twist on criticizing Trump’s trade war, arguing that the tariffs are hurting Iowa farmers. But she was careful not to attack Trump by name, assuring swing voters, “I’ll work with anyone if it helps Iowa, but I’ll have the backbone to stand up to anyone who hurts us.”

Democrat Cindy Axne edged out Republican Rep. David Young in Iowa’s 3rd by selling herself as an “efficiency expert” who “saved taxpayer money” while working for state government, and who understands that “families are taxed too much.” When attack ads sought to paint her as close to Nancy Pelosi, she aired a response insisting she would be an “independent voice.”

A short trip down the Missouri River from Iowa’s 3rd finds another key Midwest pickup, Kansas’ 3rd, won by Sharice Davids, a district that shifted from solidly supporting Mitt Romney 2012 to just barely favoring Hillary Clinton in 2016. When Davids ran in the Democratic primary against a Bernie Sanders-backed populist, she highlighted her gender, her sexual orientation, her Native American ancestry and her mixed-martial arts skills. And she flirted with single-payer health insurance and abolishing ICE. For the general, she distanced herself from those positions, offering a more buttoned-down image not centered on identity and, like many other successful female Democratic candidates, delivering a message of bipartisanship: “I'll work with anyone to lower health care costs and improve our schools.”

All of these women helped the Democrats reclaim the House majority not only by signaling their interest in problem-solving, but also by steering clear of culture-war skirmishes. Similarly, candidates of color who performed best in predominantly white districts that Trump won did not follow Gillum’s confrontational playbook when faced with racist attacks. Instead they employed finesse.

In New York’s 19th District, Hispanic-African-American Antonio Delgado overcame a barrage of ads caricaturing him as a “rapper” with “New York City values” who doesn’t share “our values.” He indirectly responded with his own series of ads, featuring white constituents testifying that Delgado “gets us” and does share “our values.”

Delgado, of course, is a East Coast example. But 31-year-old African-American Lauren Underwood pulled off a Midwest surprise in Illinois’ 14th. She shrugged off a Republican attack ad that darkened her skin, and stayed focused on health care. In her closing ad, against images of white farmers and workers, she delivering a unifying message that “our community” was being hurt by the Republican incumbent’s vote against the Affordable Care Act.

None of these candidates were viral video stars. None of these candidates pushed the envelope on policy. And none were obsessed with Trump. What they did right was root themselves in their communities, communicate a shared sense of values and signal a willingness to make Washington work again. Are there any Midwest Democrats who might run for president and follow that example?

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, a low-key pragmatist who easily won reelection last night, seemed destined to be on a vice presidential shortlist. But if pragmatic Midwestern women were good for Democrats in 2018, then they might be even better as the ticket-topper in 2020. Klobuchar deserves a fresh look as a presidential candidate. Other Midwestern senators who won reelection last night—Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Debbie Stabenow and Gary Peters of Michigan, and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin—would warrant consideration, too, but unlike Klobuchar, nonehas made moves to suggest a presidential run.

Rep. Tim Ryan, who represents Ohio’s blue-collar Mahoning Valley, has been publicly musing about a run. An even bigger long shot would be South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Going beyond the boundaries of the Midwest, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock and outgoing Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper could certainly run as cheerful, bipartisan-minded problem-solvers. And of course, former Vice President Joe Biden is more than happy to remind you of his Rust Belt, Scranton, Pa., roots.

With the exception of Biden, all of these potential candidates may struggle to get a toehold in a Democratic presidential primary. The pool of voters they must appeal to are the truest of the true blue. These are the people who respond to viral video campaign ads, who flood progressive celebrities with small-donor cash, and travel across state lines to knock on doors for them. The presidential field will be enormous, as will the resulting pressure to engage in wild antics to grab the attention of 2020 primary voters and break out of the pack. This would not fit the image of the slow and steady Midwestern pragmatist.

Democratic primary voters typically want to be dazzled, on policy and persona. But the candidates who won on Tuesday, in the states and districts that matter most, weren’t dazzlers. The best Democratic prospects for 2020 may end up getting lost in the noise.