It really troubles me to discuss this with Christmas upon us, but I feel those that maybe directly affected and those who aren't should know about the disruption that further rain will bring over the coming days. A new Atlantic weather system following hot on the heels of Storm Eva, which brought heavy rain and strong winds earlier today, looks to bring a renewed risk of flooding this weekend, as rain arrives on Christmas Day and doesn’t look to clear parts of Wales and northern England until later on Boxing Day.

The UK Met Office have issued an Amber Warning for rain for Cumbria and Yellow Warning for rain for north Wales and other parts of northern England

The next low pressure system to bring wind and rain to the UK later on Christmas day is currently mid-Atlantic to the north of Azores and will track northeast close to the west of Ireland later on Christmas Day before crossing northern Scotland on Boxing Day. It’s not just the rain wrapping around the rain this low that is an issue, the trailing cold front looks to become slow-moving across Wales and northern England before clearing SE Saturday evening.

Before then, a dry and chilly respite tonight, with a touch of frost and some wintry showers in the north, the Higlands, southern Uplands, Cumbrian Fells and northern Pennines may even wake up to some snow over the higher elevations. So a festively chilly start on Christmas Day, before cloud, rain, milder air and strengthening winds spread up from the SW across England and Wales during the morning and afternoon.

24 hrs rainfall totals from the Netweather Model indicates 70mm+ over Cumbria between 0600hrs Saturday and 06hrs on Sunday. Though this is the upper end of totals compared to GFS who have 40-50mm max.