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Hit Power SB Field Overall 70 55 50 55/60 75

Background: It seems difficult to fathom now that when the Reds drafted the former the former Tennessee Volunteer with the second overall pick in the 2016 draft that they signed him to a deal worth well below the recommended slot bonus; the two sides agreed on a contract worth $6.2 million, saving the ballclub slightly more than $1.5 million. But Senzel, who’s began to see some action at the keystone in 2018, continues to make a compelling – and correct – case that he, and not Mickey Moniak, should have been taken #1 overall. A career .332/.426/.508 hitter during his time with the Volunteers, Senzel scorched the Midwest League during his debut, hitting .329/.415/.567 across 58 games. He continued to swing a hot stick as the club pushed him up to High Class A and then onto the Class AA, the minors’ most important challenge, the following year as well, batting .321/.391/.514 with 40 doubles, three triples, and 14 homeruns. Last season, as he was knocking – loudly – on Cincinnati’s big league door, Senzel’s third professional campaign came to an abrupt end as he fractured his finger – which needed surgery to repair – in late June and missed the remainder of the year. He finished the year with a .310/.378/.509 triple-slash line.

Analysis: On the short list for purest hitter in the minor leagues. One could have made the argument – and a rather convincing one at that – that Senzel should have started the year up in Cincy, not in the International League. The former Volunteer shows a plus-hit tool that verges on plus-plus and the ability to spray line drive base hits from foul line to foul line. Most of his power comes is center field to the left field foul line. And while he doesn’t walk nearly as frequently as he did during his absurd final year in college, his patience at the plate continues to hover in the slightly better-than-average category. The 6-foot-1, 205-pound infielder also shows some sneaky speed as well. Defensively speaking, he’s above-average to plus – at second or third bases. Assuming the finger injury hasn’t slowed him down too much, He’s on the short list of candidates to take home the N.L. Rookie of the Year Award. He’s capable of putting together a .300/.400/.500 big league line at his peak.

Ceiling: 6.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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2. Hunter Greene, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 80 55/60 55 50 50/55 70+

Background: About a decade ago the Washington Nationals had the incredible fortune of being terrible at precisely the right time. The NL East Division club was able to draft two franchise cornerstone players in Steven Strasburg and Bryce Harper with back-to-back #1 overall selections. Well, the Reds “positioned” themselves in a similar manner three years ago. After finishing the 2015 season with a lowly 64-98 win-loss record, the Red Legs snagged Tennessee Volunteers star Nick Senzel with the second overall pick. Their big league success that season, however, only modestly improved – earning them, once again, the second overall pick in the 2017 draft. And with that selection the Reds grabbed all-worldly two-way prep star Hunter Greene, who – according to reports – would have been a first round pick as a pitcher or a shortstop. Cincinnati’s brass flirted with the idea of developing Greene as a two-way star, but after hitting .233/.233/.367 in 30 plate appearances in his debut, that idea was quickly scrapped. Last season the then-19-year-old budding ace made 18 starts with the Dayton Dragons in the Midwest League, throwing 68.1 innings with a whopping 89 punch outs and only 23 walks. His season – like fellow top prospect Nick Senzel – was prematurely cut short; the injury: a sprained UCL ligament. Reports indicated Greene was to resume throwing in late October.

Analysis: If there’s such a thing as an “easy 100 mph” Greene’s name certainly belongs on the short list. Blessed with a lightning-quick arm that allows his fastball to comfortably – and easily – sit in the 97- to 99-mph range with a peak at 102, Greene’s polish differentiates himself from all other hard-throwers. He’s only entering his age-19 season, but he has an idea on how to pitch, showing poise and guile already. His curveball, a sharp overhand offering, is above-average with flashes of more on occasion. His slider’s usable and hovers around 89- to 90-mph. And his changeup has the makings of an above-average offering. Like Strasburg, Greene’s one of the rare pitching prospects that has a chance to achieve true ace-dom, as long as he can work his way through the injury nexus.

Ceiling: 5.0- to 5.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2021

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3. Jonathan India, 3B

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50/55 55 50 50+ 65+

Background: Something you don’t hear – or read about – very often: India, a 6-foot, 185-pound infielder from Delray Beach, Florida, committed to the University of Florida the summer following his freshman season of high school. An American Heritage High School product, home to Marlins 2014 second round pick Anfernee Seymour, India remained true to his word – and commitment to the Gators – after a stellar amateur career: he would eventually be named an All-American; Baseball America had him as a Top 100 Prospect heading into the 2015 draft; and Perfect Game ranked him as the top middle infield prospect in the country. As a true freshman at Florida, who would eventually finish as the fifth best team in the nation, India handled the transition to the ultra-competitive SEC with aplomb: he slugged .303/.367/.440 with 16 doubles (which trailed only first baseman and eventual second round pick Peter Alonso), two triples, and four homeruns. He also swiped 14 bags just for good measure as well. The then-teenage infielder spent the ensuing summer in the Cape Cod League, hitting a more-than-respectable .290/.405/.403 with seven doubles in 17 games. India’s production backed up a touch during his sophomore season, batting .274/.354/.429 with 15 doubles and six homeruns. He also swiped 13 bags in 13 total chances. And, of course, once again he spent the summer playing for the Harwich Mariners, hitting .273/.390/.394 with six extra-base hits. Last season, though, India had a massive, massive breakout campaign for Manager Kevin O’Sullivan. He slugged a hearty .350/.497/.717 with 12 doubles, four triples, and a career best 21 homeruns. He’s also swiped a career best 15 bags as well. The best news, however, has been the development of his plate discipline; he finished the year with a promising 56-to-60 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Cincinnati snagged the former Gator in the first round, fifth overall, and handed him a contract worth $5,297,500. India made stops at three different levels, hitting a combined .240/.380/.433..

Analysis: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about India heading into the 2018 draft:

“Easily – by a wide margin – the best overall prospect college baseball has to offer up this year. India does everything exceptionally well: he’s flashing above-average power, tremendous patience, the ability to consistently make contact, speed, and the defensive chops to handle either position on the left side of the infield. Consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2017, here’s the list between SEC hitters to slug at least .375/.475/.700 (min. 200 PA): Andrew Benintendi and Mikie Mahtook. Benintendi, the seventh overall pick in the 2015 draft, currently owns a career .270/.351/.429 [mark]. And Mahtook owns a career .250/.299/.425 triple-slash line.

That’s obviously incredibly promising for India’s future. So let’s continue. Consider the following:

Again, between 2011 and 2017, here’s a list of all Division I hitters to bat at least .375/.475/.700 with a walk rate of 18% or better (min. 200 PA): Will Craig, the 22nd pick two years ago, and Kyle Lewis, the 11th selection in the same draft.

Let’s approach it one more way. Consider the following:

Player Age PA AVG OBP SLG BB% K% Jonathan India 21 207 .392 .531 .791 19.32% 16.91% Alex Bregman 21 312 .323 .412 .535 11.54% 7.05% Dansby Swanson 21 336 .335 .423 .623 12.80% 16.07% Nick Senzel 21 259 .352 .456 .595 15.44% 8.11% Anthony Rendon 21 302 .327 .520 .523 26.46% 10.93%

India has a strong, strong case as the top offensive performer among the group during their respective age-21 seasons. Again, he still has 15 or 20 games left to play, so his bat could cool considerably. But he’s – by far – the top collegiate prospect in this year’s draft class, a potential All-Star especially if he slides back over to a middle infield position. I wouldn’t rule out a switch to the keystone either.”

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

4. Taylor Trammell, OF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50/55 40/50 55 45/55 65

Background: Turns out that the Reds had a franchise-altering first round of the 2016 draft. After snagging top prospect Nick Senzel with the second overall pick – and subsequently signing him to a well below-slot deal – the club used that saved money to sign Trammell, the 35th overall player taken, to a deal worth $3.2 million – roughly $1.4 million above the recommended allotment. Trammell, a product of Mount Paran Christian School in Kennesaw, Georgia, spent last season ripping through the Florida State League at the ripe ol’ age of 20. In 110 games with the Daytona Tortugas, the 6-foot-2, 195-pound tools-laden outfielder slugged a healthy .277/.375/.406 with 19 doubles, four triples, and eight homeruns. He also swiped 25 bags (in 35 attempts), the fourth best mark in the FSL. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 29% and 24%, respectively.

Analysis: Loud tools with a sabermetric tinge. Trammell profiles as a potential perennial All-Star at the big league level. The bat itself will be an above-average or better skill during his peak years; his power has a chance to blossom into 20-homer territory; and he’s consistently displayed plus to plus-plus speed on the base paths and in the outfield. His route running – particularly in center field – needs to improve though. Trammell’s also incredibly patient at the plate as well, walking in more than 12% of his plate appearances since entering full-season action in 2017. With respect to his production last season, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, only six 20-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ total between 125 and 135 in the Florida State League (min. 350 PA): Mike Carp, Ramon Flores, Dominic Smith, Austin Meadows, Hak-Ju Lee, and Richard Urena. It’s not an overly inspiring list of comps, but Trammell differentiates himself with his tremendous walk rates and plus-speed.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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5. Tony Santillan, RHP

FB SL CH Control Overall 70 60/65 50 40/45 60

Background: Like a simmering pot on the verge of boiling over, Santillan’s prospect status is reaching a fevered pitch. Santillan, a rotund right-hander taken in the second round of the 2015 draft, blew through the Midwest League two years ago as he averaged a punch out per inning with decent control. Last season the hard-throwing righty split time between the Daytona Tortugas and the Pensacola Blue Wahoos. Making a career-high 26 starts, Santillan fanned 134 and issued just 38 walks across 149.0 innings of work. He finished his fourth professional season with a 3.08 ERA and a 3.69 FIP. For his career, he’s averaging an impressive 9.0 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings with a 3.69 ERA.

Analysis: Simply put: the Seguin High School product is a better version of fellow prospect Vladimir Gutierrez. Santillan, who’s a bit doughy in the midriff, challenges hitters with an effortless fastball, showing plus-velocity and late explosive life. His slider, though, adds a second swing-and-miss offering to his arsenal. It has hard biting downward tilt and he’s willing to vary the break/velocity on it that adds another dimension to his repertoire. His third offering, a straight changeup, needs further refinement/development. His control is also below-average as well. As it stands, Santillan looks like a good #3 type arm in the coming years, though that could move up a notch or two if he sees some improvement in the changeup and/or control/command.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

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6. Mike Siani, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 45/55 35/45 60 55 55

Background: The Reds’ played the draft game to a tee last year, finding undervalued talent early on – like Josiah Gray, who was eventually flipped to the Dodgers – and signing them to below-slot deals in order to pass the savings along to high profile players viewed as tough signings. Like Mike Siani, a fourth round pick out of William Penn Charter School in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The 6-foot-1, 180-pound center fielder received a hefty $2 million signing bonus, roughly double that of the next highest bonus given to any fourth rounder last year. Siani, a commit to the University of Virginia, spent his debut in the Appalachian League, hitting .288/.351/.386 with six doubles, three triples, and a pair of homeruns. He also swiped six bags in ten tries. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, was 2% and 5% below the league average mark.

Analysis: Siani acquitted himself nicely during his first taste of pro ball, showing a well-rounded offensive game with the potential to have an above-average hit tool and speed to go along with decent power. Yes, it was a short same size but Siani was out-of-the-universe good in center field, posting a +11 in runs saved above average. He’s poised to be one of the bigger breakouts in 2019.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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7. Tyler Stephenson, C

Hit Power SB Field Overall 45/50 45/50 30 35/40 55

Background: After a couple injury-marred seasons already on his resume, Stephenson accomplished something he hasn’t done since entering pro ball in 2015 – he broke the 100-game threshold. A highly touted backstop coming out of Kennesaw Mountain High School in 2015, Cincinnati grabbed him in the opening round – 11th overall – with visions of him becoming a franchise cornerstone. Those visions took one step closer towards becoming a reality after a solid season in the Florida State League. In a career high 109 games, the 6-foot-4, 225-pound backstop batted a solid .250/.338/.392 with 20 doubles, one triple, and 11 homeruns. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 11% and 21%, respectively. For his career Stephenson’s sporting a .257/.343/.384 triple-slash line, belting out 62 doubles, two triples, and 22 homeruns in 287 games.

Analysis: Pegged as a potential breakout candidate in last year’s Handbook, here’s a little snippet of what I wrote:

“There’s a lot to like about Stephenson: he’s an offensive-minded player at a premium, premium position, shows average or better power, a strong eye at the plate, and good contact skills. The question is whether he can remain healthy enough. Also, his defense is pretty terrible.”

Firstly, the defensive is still quite terrible – among the worst for backstops. According to Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics, Stephenson was -7 runs below the league average. With that being said, his bat should allow him to stay behind the dish for the foreseeable future. Above-average patience, solid contact skills, and the potential to blossom into a 20-homer threat. There’s a very real possibility that he develops into a solid-average league starter – especially considering that backstops take a bit longer to develop.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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8. Vladimir Gutierrez, RHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 70 55 50 55 50

Background: Signed on the international market after defecting to Cuba a couple years ago. Gutierrez, the recipient of a hefty $4.75 million deal from the club, turned in a solid debut with the Daytona Tortugas two years ago. In 103.0 innings spanning 19 starts, the 6-foot, 190-pound right-hander posted an impressive 94-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 4.46 ERA. Gutierrez spent the entirety of last season squaring off against Southern League hitters. In a career best 147.0 innings of work, he fanned 145 and walked only 38. He finished the year with a 4.35 ERA and a significantly better 3.75 DRA (Deserved Runs Average).

Analysis: A bit underrated after all the hoopla surrounding his signing with the club has died down. Gutierrez attacks hitters with a mid- to upper-90s fastball that shows some late giddy-up. His curveball is above-average offering, though I’m hesitant to call it a true “out pitch” and the changeup’s mediocre. Gutierrez succeeds because he limits walks, though he’s been too homer-prone since entering the stateside leagues. With respect to his production, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 22-year-old pitchers that posted a 22% to 24% strikeout percentage with a sub-8% walk percentage in the Southern League (min. 100 IP): Sal Romano, Robert Dugger, and – of course –Vladimir Gutierrez.

While possessing a plus-fastball, Gutierrez’s lack of a dominant secondary offering pushes his ceiling towards back-of-the-rotation caliber arm or dominant late-inning reliever.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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9. T.J. Friedl, OF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 55 40 60 55 45

Background: The former University of Nevada star created some buzz following the 2016 draft after it was discovered that he was, in fact, draft-eligible and able to sign with a big league organization as an amateur free agent. Friedl, who batted a scorching .401/.494/.563 during his final season with the Wolf Pack, ripped through the Pioneer League during his brief debut, slugging .347/.423/.545 with plenty of extra-base firepower. The 5-foot-10, 170-pound outfielder split the following season between Dayton and Daytona, hitting a rock solid .273/.352/.420 with 26 doubles, eight triples, and seven homeruns. Last season the front office took the cautious approach with Friedl and sent him back down to the Florida State League for some additional seasoning. After batting .294/.405/.412 over 64 games, Friedl was bumped up to Class AA for the remainder of the year. He finished the season with an aggregate .284/.381/.384 triple-slash line, belting out 20 doubles, seven triples, and five homeruns to go along with 30 stolen bases.

Analysis: Built in the same mold as every other overachieving fourth outfielder/tweener starter. Friedl shows plus-speed, an above-average hit tool and defensive value, but he’s lacking in the power department. Like a lot of the club’s other top bats – or at least the more known ones – Friedl’s a bit tool pull happy: all of his homeruns were yanked from right-center to the foul line If he sees an uptick in power, particularly of the homerun variety, Friedl could be a low end starter. But he’s very likely going to settle in as a capable fourth outfielder. Long time big league vagabond Gerardo Parra seems like a reasonable comp at this point.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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Hit Power SB Field Overall 50 55 30 50 45

Background: A perennial member of the Rockies’ top prospect lists for the better part of a decade. Cincinnati snagged the hulking first baseman/right fielder on the minor league free agent market this offseason. Patterson, a fourth round pick out of the University of South Alabama all the way back in 2013, continued to get bypassed at a shot at regular action in Colorado’s crowded outfield. Now back in the Pacific Coast League for the third consecutive season, the 6-foot-4, 215-pound first baseman/right fielder maintained status quo, slugging a solid .271/.367/.525 with 23 doubles, two triples, and 26 homeruns. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 31%. Patterson owns a .282/.363/.516 triple-slash line in 368 PCL games.

Analysis: The book on Patterson has long been written: a hulking slugging with a minor platoon split, average eye, and defensive chops to play either first base or right field. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2017, only one 26-year-old hitter met the following criteria in the Pacific Coast League (min. 300 PA): 125 to 135 wRC+, 7% to 10% walk rate, and a strikeout rate north of 22%. That hitter is Bryan LaHair, owner of a career 106 wRC+ mark in 195 big league games.

Patterson’s ready – and has been for quite some time – to step in and be a reasonably valuable big league hitter. He just needs a chance.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2016

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.