Article content continued

Many of the historical match-ups that resulted in 0-3 deficits were between teams that were mismatched. The powerhouse 1937-39 New York Yankees of Joe DiMaggio, for example, won 102, 99 and 106 games in a 154-game regular-season schedule. Their World Series opponents won from 89 to 97 games. The Yankees sped to 3-0 leads in all three of those World Series, and won them 4-1, 4-0 and 4-0.

But the Indians and the Jays are much more evenly matched. The Indians won more games in the regular season, 94 to 89, but the teams’ run differentials were very close: plus-101 and plus-93. Baseball Prospectus estimates that once the teams’ underlying statistics are factored in and adjusted for strength of schedule, the Jays actually were slightly better.

The games in the ALCS have been quite close as well. The Indians have won the three games by a total of five runs. In contrast, the 1937-39 Yankees had outscored their opponents after three games by 18, eight and nine runs.

Defensively and pitching-wise, the Jays have done enough to win, or at least to be competitive, surrendering two, two and four runs. They have been let down by their offence, which has scored zero, one and two runs. Of course, some of this is because of the Indians’ strong pitching performance. But it also may simply be a cold run for the Jays’ bats. Toronto averaged 4.7 runs a game during the regular season and 6.8 in the postseason before this series.

Edwin Encarnacion is 2 for 11. Jose Bautista is 1 for 9. After hitting 221 home runs in the regular season, Toronto has only one in the first three games of the ALCS. Even against a strong staff like Cleveland’s, figures like those are unlikely to continue.

Make no mistake — it would be foolhardy to outright predict four Toronto wins. Even if the teams are truly equal, with every game a coin flip, a team down by 3-0 would still be a 15-1 shot to win four straight.

But Toronto seems better placed than most teams for an unlikely comeback. Game 4 was set for Tuesday afternoon in Toronto, with Corey Kluber scheduled to start for the Indians. On July 3, the Jays chased Kluber after 3 1/3 innings on the way to a 17-1 romp. It was the second game of a seven-game winning streak.