He won't be able to achieve it for many years - he's not saying when - and not without significant and painful, but as yet unidentified, cuts in government spending. In short, he is unlikely to be able to do it much faster than Labor would have. What's likely to differ is who will bear most pain. Labor would have erred in the direction of higher taxes, particularly on the better-off. Hockey has ruled out higher taxes and is hinting at cuts in government spending on ''welfare, education and health''. Contrast this grim slog with all the Coalition said in opposition about the deficit being purely the result of Labor mismanagement. This time last year Tony Abbott and Hockey were promising to deliver a budget surplus in each year of their first term. By the election campaign the return to surplus had been delayed until the first year after the next election. Now even that is in doubt.

Hockey claims the midyear review and deficit estimates it contains draw ''a line in the sand''. From now, he says, he will take responsibility for budget estimates. Although the pre-election budget statement, certified by the most senior econocrats, was specifically instigated by the Howard government to remove all doubt about the true state of the budget at election time, Hockey is claiming to have uncovered a budget black hole. This financial year's budget deficit is now expected to be $17 billion bigger, while the cumulative deficits for the next four years are expected to be $68 billion bigger. Little of this can be fairly attributed to the previous government. More than 60 per cent of the expected worsening in this year's deficit is attributed to decisions made by the Abbott government, most particularly the capital grant of almost $9 billion to the Reserve Bank. It represents a piece of creative accounting, loading up the deficit in the year for which Labor can be blamed so as to improve the deficit in the years for which the Coalition will be responsible. We are being softened up for a tough budget in May