The New York Times analyzed all of the grades issued by the National Rifle Association to members of Congress since 2008 — a measure of the breadth and depth of the group’s support on Capitol Hill — and found that the group has significantly fewer allies in Congress than it did a decade ago, driven by the near-total severing of ties to Democrats.

The Democratic buffer was once crucial. When Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress in 2009-10, the N.R.A.’s alliances with Democrats helped forestall new gun restrictions. In the long term, the loss of the N.R.A.’s Democratic buffer poses a threat to the group’s power, no matter what happens in the current gun control debate.

But Republican support is still going strong. Over 90 percent of congressional Republicans have “A” grade ratings. The N.R.A. also continues to have clout with President Trump and Senate leaders, which could be enough to block the current push for background checks.

Party lines around the N.R.A. are hardening. The group was once largely insulated from shifts in partisan control: It could block gun restrictions no matter which party controlled Congress and the White House. But now, Republican majority in both houses of Congress would most likely hamper gun control measures, while a Democratic majority would make it easier to pass background checks and other legislation.

The N.R.A.’s electoral influence is faltering. There’s been very little backlash for N.R.A. defectors in the last decade. In fact, legislators who have moved away from the N.R.A. have then fared better electorally, further weakening the group’s argument that defying it would be political suicide.

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What to read tonight

• The sisters who tried to take down Jeffrey Epstein nearly a decade ago.

• As Elizabeth Warren calls for “big, structural change,” she’s reassuring Democratic leaders that she would rebuild the party — not seek to conquer it.