Canadians on Prince Edward Island are preparing to vote on Tuesday in a regional election that could lead to a Green party forming a government for the first time in the country’s history.

The party leader, Peter Bevan-Baker is a Scotland-born dentist who has transformed a routine election into a closely watched race as he seeks to upend expectation and precedent on 23 April.

The bucolic island – Canada’s smallest province – is best known internationally as the home of LM Montgomery’s classic children’s novel Anne of Green Gables. But it also remains a region heavily reliant on fishing and farming – industries that are increasingly precarious as the area grapples with the effects of climate change.

Bevan-Baker’s potential win also underscores the unpredictability and diversity of Canadian politics. Last week, voters soundly rejected a progressive government that promised to tackle climate change in the heartlands of Canada’s oil industry.

For generations, the 153,000 residents of Prince Edward Island have experienced a see-saw of political consistency, with the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives alternating power with remarkable predictability.

But this belies an exciting history of Canadians firsts: Prince Edward Island elected the first non-European premier (Joseph Ghiz), the first elected female premier (Catherine Callbeck) and the first openly gay leader (incumbent premier Wade MacLauchlan).

“Could we become the first province to elect the Green party? It’s possible,” said Paul MacNeill, publisher and political commentator on the island.

No Green party in Canada has ever formed a provincial or national government. A win by Bevan-Baker would upend precedent, but even a minority government would be a first in the province since the 1800s.

While the province’s economy is roaring, the public appears to have grown weary of what would amount to four consecutive terms of Liberal government if premier MacLauchlan is re-elected on Tuesday (though it would only be his second term).

Bevan-Baker’s candidacy, however, promises to upset the status quo in a region known for its political moderation.

“He is fiscally conservative. He’s socially responsible and he’s environmentally aware,” said MacNeill. “Between the lilt of his voice and his policies – which are middle of the road for the most part – he’s won a lot of converts.”

And Bevan-Baker has been astute at reading the electorate. “They’ve been presenting themselves less as a party with an activist agenda on environmental issues and more as a party that will pay attention and is capable and interested in listening to the people,” said Don Desserud, a professor of political science at the University of Prince Edward Island.

In a province heavily reliant on agriculture, courting the rural areas, especially given the declining prosperity of family farms, is key to any electoral breakthrough.

“What Bevan Baker has done, is reformulated [the Greens’] message to say that they want to work with farmers, not against [them]. They want to help people. They want to support them,” said Desserud.

The result is policy proposals from the Greens that dive deep into pesticide and chemical fertiliser rules, but one that also emphasises individual responsibility as opposed to government regulation.

But a Green government also holds a certain poignancy for islanders on the front line of climate change: each day, the Atlantic Ocean eats away at its famed red cliffs and sections are expected to soon disappear beneath rising sea levels.

“Living on an island, you start to see the effects of climate change in a tangible way, especially as a farming and fishing community,” said Colin Buchanan, a musician in the province’s capital Charlottetown, who plans to once again vote Green.

While Canada has experimented with Green politicians in the past – most recently with Mike Schreiner, a small business owner in Guelph, Ontario, who won 45% of the vote in the province’s recent election – the country has been wary to fully embrace the party as a viable option in forming government.

But the electoral strategy of the party in PEI might also portend a shift in thinking about how to court a wary electorate.

“What the Green party has had to do is to basically rebrand themselves … as a far more comprehensive party,” said Desserud, likening its strategy to that of European Green parties.

The Greens have enjoyed a surprisingly robust lead over the other two parties throughout the campaign, even in conservative rural areas, but recent polling suggests the election has tightened into a three-way race.

The Progressive Conservative party leader and former journalist, Dennis King, is well-liked and seen as a moderate voice – and has slowly chipped away at Bevan-Baker’s outsized lead.

But the campaign, which has been cordial and friendly, has also been beset by tragedy: on Friday, the Green candidate and local teacher Josh Underhay and his young son died in a canoeing accident, a shocking blow to the tight-knit community.

“Josh brought humour, enthusiasm and boundless energy to every situation,” said Bevan-Baker in a statement the next day, announcing all campaign activities would be suspended over the weekend, with other parties also following suit.

In the last election, Bevan-Baker’s 2015 seat was the lone Green representation in the province’s legislative assembly, capping 10 previously unsuccessful attempts at winning a seat in Canadian politics. Hanna Bell brought the party’s seat count to two, following a 2017 byelection win.

But politics is a private matter for many and most residents are tight-lipped about their choice at the ballot box, making any predictions difficult.

“Islanders are a lot more more traditional than the numbers likely show,” he said. “Maybe I’ll be wrong. I hope I am.”