The Australian Open is now in full swing and has commenced in a dramatic fashion. On the men’s side, number five seed and fourteen-time Grand Slam champion Rafael Nadal crashed out to Fernando Verdasco in five sets. Meanwhile, the other top seeds have cruised through their first rounds, with Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andy Murray, and Stan Wawrinka all making it safely through to the second round.

However, all the headlines and coverage prior to and during the tournament so far seems to have focussed on Djokovic, Federer, and Murray’s chances of winning the Australian Open. No one seems to have given much thought to #4 seed Wawrinka’s chances of winning the first Grand Slam of 2016.

Wawrinka has started off the season as he usually does: winning Chennai. He defeated the up and coming Borna Coric in straight sets, 6-3 7-5, and has headed to Australia with a title for the third year in a row. Djokovic also comes to Australia with a title, his demolition of Nadal in Doha only sweetening the deal. However, Federer and Murray come to Australia title-less. However, they are still considered firm favourites for the title, after Djokovic of course.

Nowhere in the narrative does Wawrinka seem to have been mentioned as a favourite, despite the fact that he has won Chennai for the third year in a row. Each time he has done this in the last two years he has made at least the semifinals of the Australian Open.

Furthermore, Wawrinka is the only player in the last year to beat Djokovic at Grand Slam level. His four-set victory over Djokovic at Roland Garros, 4-6 6-4 6-3 6-4, gave him his second Grand Slam title and prevented Djokovic from completing a career Grand Slam. In fact, if Djokovic had won that match it is quite possible he would have held all four slams in the same calendar year. Not only that match, but in the defence of his Australian Open title at the beginning of 2015, he pushed Djokovic to five sets in their semifinal, only capitulating in the final set.

In many ways, Wawrinka should be considered the primary favourite after Djokovic. His style of play is such that he can beat Djokovic. Djokovic, ‘the elastic-man’ who retrieves every ball and grinds players down, cannot always put up with Wawrinka’s power. Wawrinka has heavy, powerful groundstrokes and a serve he can deliver at speeds of up to 130 mph.

His game can overpower opponents as was seen at Roland Garros last year. He steamrollered Federer in the quarter-finals and left Djokovic standing still during the final. Unlike Federer, Wawrinka’s backhand is akin to a forehand as he can deliver the stroke with extreme power and change direction with ease. Djokovic often grinds Federer’s backhand down because Federer struggles with the higher balls to the backhand. This tactic is ineffective against Wawrinka and thus Djokovic struggles against him.

Wawrinka is on the other side of the draw from Djokovic so they can only meet in the final. With Nadal’s early loss, Wawrinka now has a clear route to a least the semis, where he should meet Murray. Wawrinka has won his last three meetings with Murray, including a quarterfinal straights-sets victory at the US Open in 2013 and another straight-sets victory at the ATP World Tour Finals at the end of last season.

In a pre-tournament interview, Wawrinka re-affirmed his love for the Australian Open; he said, “Always (sic) amazing to come back. Always been one of my favourite tournaments to play…” With such a positive view of the tournament, it is perhaps unsurprising then that his results have been so good here for the last couple of years. He has maintained that winning in Australia has changed the tournament for him saying in a press conference after his first round victory, “Coming back after 2014, winning here, it will always be different for me.”

So here we have a player who loves this tournament that was the scene of his first Grand Slam title victory. He is the only player to have defeated Djokovic at a Grand Slam in the last twelve months and further pushed him to five sets at this very Grand Slam this time last year. His game is tooled to beat Djokovic and the draw has now opened up to such an extent that, if we base it on seedings, his next real challenge is Andy Murray in the semifinal. Wawrinka seems to be far and away one of the favourites if not the primary favourite after Djokovic.

Watch out for Wawrinka over the next fortnight as he works his way through the rounds and don’t be surprised if he’s still standing in the final on Sunday. Wawrinka plays his second round match against Radek Stephanek, a wily veteran, who plays a very flat game mixed with forays to the net. You won’t find this match on Rod Laver or Margaret Court Arena. You’ll have to follow this forgotten seed over to Hisense Arena where he’s the fourth match on after a men’s doubles match.

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