‘UP will need to grow at 30% to achieve trillion dollar target in five years’: Experts

lucknow

Updated: Aug 10, 2019 21:29 IST

Chief minister Yogi Adityanath may have called for accepting the challenge of turning Uttar Pradesh into a trillion-dollar economy in the next five years but the target may not be easy to achieve in that time span, experts say.

A close scrutiny of the state’s economic situation indicates that Uttar Pradesh has a Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of Rs 15.42 lakh crore and it will take much longer than just five years to become a trillion dollar economy, according to the experts.

In fact, the state will have to have a GSDP of Rs. 70 lakh crore to achieve the trillion-dollar economy target, if the value of a dollar is taken to be Rs 70, according to these experts.

Uttar Pradesh has not been able to witness double digit economic growth despite consistent attempts over the years, they say. The GSDP is estimated to have grown 7% in 2017-18 and 6.5% in 2018-2019.

“Uttar Pradesh will need to grow at 30% to achieve this target in the next five years. It will have to grow at 16% to achieve this target in the next 10 years. At the present pace, this target can be achieved only in 2034-2035,” says professor Yashvir Tyagi, retired head of the economics department, Lucknow University.

For his part, Adityanath had said last month, “If we keep on moving at the present pace, it will take 12 to 15 years to make the state a trillion dollar economy. We will have to move faster than the pace of time.”

“To make UP a trillion dollar economy, the state will have to make progress in every sector and aim to attract investment of ₹ 70 lakh crore to 100 lakh crore. This may be a big target. But it is not impossible,” he said while speaking on his government’s first supplementary budget for 2019-2020 on July 24. “There should be no politics on every issue,” he said, seeking cooperation of all the parties.

His assertions were based on his government’s attempts to attract investment in the recent past.

After signing memorandums of understanding for the UP Investors’ Summit in February 2018, the Yogi government organised two ground-breaking ceremonies to bring investment of ₹125,000 crore to the state.

“Only 4-5% MoUs are generally implemented. We have, however, brought nearly 30% of the investment promised in the MoUs,” says a senior officer.

“A motivational goal for state’s economy sounds well. It pushes the government to bring greater investment. But at the same time, the government has to consider that the size of economy will not solve all problems. It will have to ensure growth in all the sectors. UP figures at the bottom of indicators in the health sector and there is a need to grow faster in these sectors,” Tyagi says.

Others also point to the state’s share in India’s growth to argue that making the state a trillion dollar economy may be an unrealistic target.

AK Singh, former director of the Giri Institute of Development Studies, says, “Making Uttar Pradesh a trillion dollar economy in the next five years appears to be an unrealistic target. UP’s GSDP is growing by about 6.5%. UP’s GSDP is about 10% of India’s GDP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is talking about making India a five-trillion dollar economy. This means the state will have to double the share and have nearly 20% of India’s GDP to be a trillion-dollar economy. So, the state will take much longer than the given timeline to reach this level.”

BJP president and union home minister Amit Shah had recently said that the route to make India a 5 trillion dollar economy goes through Uttar Pradesh.

“For those aspiring to become India’s prime minister, it is said that the road to Delhi passes through Lucknow. Atal became PM from Lucknow and Modi from Varanasi. We must know that the path for India to become a $5 trillion economy also passes through Lucknow,” said Shah while addressing investors at the 2nd ground breaking ceremony here on July 28.

Earlier Prime Minister Narendra Modi had spoken about making Uttar Pradesh a trillion dollar economy while addressing the Uttar Pradesh Investors Summit 2018 here on February 21, 2018.

“Can Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh compete with each other to become the trillion dollar economy? Will the UP government compete with other states? More the competition, more will be the investment. This will result in creation of more jobs and strengthen the concept of cooperative federalism,” said Modi.