OTTAWA—Half of Toronto voters say they’ll likely back Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in their bid for re-election according to new data from Forum Research.

Among a sample of decided and leaning voters in the City of Toronto, 50 per cent told Forum that they would support the Liberals if an election were held today. A quarter said they’d back the Conservative party, while the Greens and New Democrats garnered 10 per cent support each.

Trudeau remains more personally popular in Toronto than elsewhere in Canada. According to Forum’s numbers, 49 per cent of respondents approve of the Liberal leader, while 41 per cent disapprove.

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer’s approval level (24 per cent) mirrors his party’s overall support in the city, and is lower than his national numbers. Almost six in 10 respondents (57 per cent) disapprove of the Conservative leader.

“The Liberals really resonate in Toronto, and Trudeau himself resonates in Toronto. You saw that with the Raptors’ (celebration parade) with the spontaneous applause and that sort of thing,” said Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research.

“It just shows you how polarized the country is. If you flip the numbers you’d see (a situation) like we have in Alberta, where the Tories are getting 50 per cent of the vote. But in Toronto, we’ve got the Liberals getting 50 per cent of the vote.”

There could be an alignment between Toronto voters’ top political concerns and the Liberals’ priorities, as well. For voters in the city, climate change is by far their top political issue — with 27 per cent ranking it above the economy and jobs (17 per cent), health care and pharmacare (11 per cent), and taxes (nine per cent).

Forum’s last national poll, released on Sept. 11, found the Conservatives enjoyed a slight national lead of 36 per cent compared to the Liberals’ 32 per cent support. But Bozinoff has warned for months that the Conservatives strong national numbers are inflated by their electoral domination in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Could the same hold true for Ontario — with the Liberals strong performance in the city masking weakness in the 905 and rural ridings?

“It’s possible,” Bozinoff said.

“If people are targeting the 905, that’s probably the thing to do. That’s probably where the battle is going to be … I don’t think in the 416 things are moving. Probably things aren’t moving in the rural areas, either.”

Forum interviewed 1,059 Toronto residents between Sept. 25 and 26. The results of the poll are considered accurate within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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Alex Ballingall is an Ottawa-based reporter covering national politics. Follow him on Twitter: @aballinga

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