Messy week for Malcolm Turnbull helps ALP, but the prime minister is comfortably ahead of Bill Shorten in personal approval ratings

A messy political week for the Turnbull government and the revival of the Barnaby Joyce controversy appears to have propelled Labor further in front in the national political contest, with the latest Guardian Essential poll showing the ALP ahead of the Coalition 54% to 46%.

The positive jump for Labor, propelled by a four-point drop in the Coalition’s primary vote, reverses a tightening in the political contest in the weeks after the Turnbull government used the budget in May to promise voters a $140bn income tax cut package.

The two-party-preferred result a fortnight ago was 51% to 49%, with Labor ahead – which was the first time the major party gap had been that close since November 2016.

The week before that, Labor was ahead of the Coalition 52% to 48%, and the week before that Labor was ahead 53% to 47%, which was the same result as the two previous fortnightly surveys. The Guardian Essential poll’s margin of error is three points.

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The dip this fortnight follows renewed controversy over Joyce’s private life and his decision to accept $150,000 from the Seven Network for a tell-all interview with his new partner and former staffer, Vikki Campion.

Labor sources have told Guardian Australia the opposition’s private research suggests the government began a political recovery at the end of last year, with voters acclimatising to their initial disappointment with Malcolm Turnbull – but the recovery was blown off course when the Joyce scandal dominated the headlines earlier this year.

The government recovered again when the scandal over Joyce’s private life receded, but the past week has projected the former Nationals leader and deputy prime minister squarely back into the national political spotlight.

The government faced further difficulty last week with splits over energy policy and live sheep exports, and battled separate controversies when the jobs minister, Michaelia Cash, was subpoenaed to give evidence in court, and the health minister, Greg Hunt, washed up on the front pages of the tabloids after an expletive-ridden confrontational tirade against a local mayor.

But despite the two-party-preferred result deteriorating over the torrid fortnight of the parliamentary sitting, the latest poll of 1,025 respondents is not all bad news for the Coalition.

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Turnbull recorded his best net approval rating since June 2016, with 42% of the sample approving of his performance as prime minister, up two points from a month ago, and 42% disapproving – a change in net approval rating from minus two to zero.

Bill Shorten, by contrast, went backwards. His approval rating as opposition leader was 33%, down four points in a month, and his disapproval rating was up five points at 46%, which translates to a change in his net approval rating from minus four to minus 13.

Turnbull also remains comfortably ahead as preferred prime minister, with 41% rating him as better prime minister (up a point in a month) and 27% backing Shorten. Turnbull is preferred by both men and women, with 48% of men preferring him and 27% Shorten, while 34% of women prefer Turnbull and 26% Shorten.

With federal parliament on a two-week hiatus, the leaders have fanned out around the country. Turnbull is touring drought-affected areas of New South Wales and Queensland, and Shorten on Monday night held a town hall meeting in the Tasmanian seat of Braddon – one of the seats Labor is aiming to defend on the “super Saturday” of byelection contests.

Polls published over the weekend suggest Labor is in trouble in both Braddon and the Queensland seat of Longman. Strategists concede the ALP is trailing the Liberals in the Tasmanian contest.

With Turnbull in NSW, former prime minister Tony Abbott campaigned in Braddon on Monday with the Liberal candidate, Brett Whiteley, trumpeting the policies of “the Abbott Turnbull government”.

Tony Abbott (@TonyAbbottMHR) It was good to see three local businesses that are flourishing thanks to the policies of the Abbott Turnbull government. pic.twitter.com/dcY6H7MWAB

Labor is campaigning vigorously in the byelections against the government’s plan for a tax cut for Australia’s biggest businesses, and the new Guardian Essential poll suggests voters remain divided about that proposal, with 37% approval, 37% disapproval and 26% not sure.

Approval splits along partisan lines: 65% of Coalition voters approve, but 56% of Labor voters and 52% of Greens voters disapprove. Voters intending to back someone other than major party candidates are split: 38% approve and 41% disapprove.

Voters were also asked a number of questions this fortnight about the Newstart payment. At budget time there was a push to increase the unemployment benefit – a campaign the government rebuffed. Labor is also not locked in to boosting the payment, promising a review if it wins the next federal election.

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Half the sample were aware the payment was less than $300 a week. Half the sample thought the current level of the payment was too low, with only 9% saying it was too high, 26% believing it was about right and 15% undecided.

People most likely to think it was too low were Labor voters (63%), Greens voters (59%) and workers on incomes under $1,000 per week (62%). Coalition voters and higher-income earners were more likely to think the payment was too high.

A clear majority of the sample (68%) agreed Newstart should be increased and 70% agreed with the statement, “a fair government would raise the rate of Newstart, youth allowance and related payments to ensure everybody has enough to live on while they look for paid work”.

People were also asked to nominate an income they would need in order to live comfortably. On average, respondents thought they would need a weekly income of at least $660.

A separate poll to be released on Tuesday by the Australian Council of Trade Unions shows 64% of a sample of 1,502 respondents agreed with the statement, “increasing the minimum wage will increase the amount people have to spend, creating demand that will create jobs”, with 35.8% fearing a minimum-wage increase would cost jobs.