It's not clear who sent the first text. But for days,

drivers' cell phones have buzzed with messages calling for a work slowdown or "sickout" on Wednesday.

One message to drivers -- who have been working without a contract for nearly a year and are angry about new health care costs -- reportedly urged them to "make every bus late on the 13th."

Since 2007, it has been unlawful for Oregon transit employees to strike. Experts contend that creating hardships for thousands of Portland area commuters also would be illegal.

But TriMet operators say morale and patience have collapsed since the agency suddenly announced two weeks ago that union employees need to start paying into their benefits.

"I don't know if I'm going to do it," said one longtime bus operator, who asked for anonymity out of fear of being targeted by either other drivers or TriMet management. "But the drivers are ticked beyond belief. This is completely driver-driven."

TriMet, which has never faced a strike or work slowdown, says it is unprepared for such a scenario. But with Oregon's largest transit agency trying to persuade the public to vote for a $125 million bond measure in three weeks, it's not dismissing the threat.

Late last week, Shelly Lomax, TriMet's executive director of operations, sent a letter to union officials, saying managers had "been informed" that

has ordered the agency's 2,040 operators and mechanics to stage a work slowdown.

Work slowdown?

Read the complete correspondence between TriMet and the ATU over this week's possible work slowdown at the

.

"Any actions orchestrated by any represented public transit employee or group of employees to prevent the full, faithful or proper performance" of service would violate collective-bargaining laws, she wrote.

Within hours, ATU 757 President Jonathan Hunt fired off a reply. "Let me make it crystal clear," Hunt said. "Neither I nor the officers of ATU 757 have ordered a sanctioned work slowdown."

Hunt told The Oregonian that he had "just become aware" of the campaign when he received TriMet's letter. "We are not pushing for this," he said. Still, he acknowledges, drivers could act on their own.

If enough call in sick, it could force TriMet to cancel some routes and likely make others run behind schedule throughout the day. Operators say they don't see how managers can prove who was and wasn't too ill to report for work.

Another option: a work slowdown, when drivers follow TriMet's myriad operating rules to the letter.

Drivers usually let little things slide to stay on schedule. But during the slowdown, every transfer would be checked. Every passenger would be required to pay fare to the nickel.

As a result, no bus in the in the Portland area would run on time, drivers say.

Although drivers are confident they could get away with a daylong slowdown, the action is still considered a strike under the law, said Jackie Damm, a Portland labor attorney.

"They would basically be withholding services in support of a labor dispute," Damm said.

It was the ATU, not the state's transit agencies, that asked the Legislature to add transit employees to a state law that already prohibited police and firefighters from striking. Public workers who can't strike have the right to binding arbitration to settle contact disputes.

The transit union was partially motivated by the messy 2005

strike, which shut down bus service in the Eugene area for six days.

So, why would a union seek to give up the right to strike? Public workers who can't strike have the right to binding arbitration to settle contract disputes between labor and management. "They felt they could do better with an arbitrator than go on strike," Damm said.

After reaching an impasse in negotiations for a new contract, the union and TriMet will have to pay an arbitrator appointed by the state Employment Relations Board to impose the most reasonable of the two positions.

With health care costs skyrocketing, TriMet wants employees to start paying a portion of their benefits.

TriMet employees have one of the best benefits packages in the nation, with the agency paying 100 percent of a composite rate for medical costs for full-time employees, dependents and retirees. An annual TriMet audit released last week showed fringe benefits now are 152 percent of wages. What's more, TriMet's "post-employment benefits" grew about 29 percent from $632.2 million to $816.5 million from January 2008 and January 2010.

The union has countered with a proposal that rolls over the 2003 contract with no additional benefits.

Of course, it's hard to know when the dispute will actually reach arbitration. The ATU has an unfair labor practices complaint that must be settled first.

In the meantime, TriMet has notified union employees that they will be required to pay a share of monthly health premiums starting Jan. 1.

As Wednesday approaches, no one can say with certainty that bus drivers will stage a slowdown.

Line 67 driver Al Margulies, who runs the Rantings of a TriMet Bus Driver blog, wouldn't comment on his plans. But, he said, a picket demonstration is planned outside the next TriMet board meeting.

"Now," he said. "I'll be there for sure."

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