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View this email in your browser. WIMBLEDON SEMI-FINALS - PREVIEWS & PREDICTIONS 🎾 Nadal vs Djokovic



H2H: 25-26 (Djokovic)

Last Match: 2018, Rome (7-6, 6-3 Nadal)

H2H Grass: 2-1 (Nadal)



Rafole LII. The 52nd edition (the most prolific match-up in Open Era history) of one of the most interesting and storied rivalries of all time in this sport.



These two players have both had swings of dominance over the other during their careers, and barring very recent history, Novak was the one with the significant upper hand. Before losing their last 2 encounters (this year in Rome and last year in Madrid), Djokovic had won 11/12 of his recent matches against Rafa going back to Beijing 2013. But this match comes at an interesting time in the epic Rafole saga. Nadal sits atop the mens game and is the holder of 3 out of the last 5 slams. In stark comparison is Djokovic, without a title in over 12 months and ranked outside the top 20 coming into Wimbledon.



This match will end up being decided by which of the following two factors comes into play more:



1: Rafa = the in-form player, in slams especially, and should currently be better at getting over the finishing line in big matches than Novak.



But...



2: Novak is, and always has been, a bad matchup for Rafa, game-style wise, especially off-clay.



1. Form



Since Novak recovered from his mini-crisis in Indian-Wells/Miami, losing to Taro Daniel and Benoit Paire, he has put together an impressive 17-3 record through the clay and grass seasons. But the fact remains that the Serb has only one Top-10 win in the past 12 months (Dimitrov). This means that beating Nadal, the world No.1, should be a significant step up in terms of belief and required focus. In his title match vs Cilic at Queens a few weeks ago, Novak looked tighter than usual in some of the bigger moments. Game-wise, he can still strike the ball just as well as he ever has, but the mental task of battling other, similarly hungry and focused, giants of the game is almost a different sport. A sport in which Rafael Nadal is the current king. Djokovic has absolutely had the better of Rafa in the past 5 years of their rivalry. But in slams overall, the edge completely disappears: the two are tied 3-3 in non-clay slam matches.



Form: Advantage Rafa.



2. Gametsyles



Novak has always been better than anyone else at neutralising Rafa's crosscourt forehand, the most common and numerous of all Nadal's shots in any given match. Taking Rafa's forehand on the rise with his two-handed backhand and directing it flat and deep, either back to his forehand or down the line, is a winning strategy that can explain a fair number of the one-sided matches that Djokovic has come out on top in over the course of their rivalry. Grass really just accentuates this problem for Rafa, in that he'll find it harder to make Novak hit backhands from uncomfortable positions, and Djokovic's own groundstrokes will penetrate the court more, due to the low bounce. What this means is that we should see more variation from Rafa in order to take away the oxygen that Djokovic thrives on in baseline rallies: consistent pace. The spaniard has found some success over the years slicing down the line to Novak's backhand, giving him a low pace, deep ball that forces Novak to stay behind the baseline and hit softer (and usually shorter), cross court to Rafa's forehand, which Rafa can then attack. Novak is much more comfortable hitting backhands at high-pace, mid to high height than low pace, low height.

(Rafa in Grey, Novak in Red)



This Nadal slice will be an incredibly important shot tomorrow. If it sits up and gives Novak time on the ball, like Rafa's slice can at times do, he will be in big trouble.



The other worrying factor for Nadal tomorrow is his serve. In his match vs Del Potro yesterday he won so few free points off it in the final few sets (in sets 3 & 5 his 1st serve points won % was in the 50's and 60's respectively). Delpo was getting every serve back in play, which is bad news given Rafa is about to face the tournaments leader in return games won (44% for Novak).



Gametsyle: Advantage Novak.



Tomorrow will see so many mini-battles take place: Rafa's forehand vs Novak's backhand, Rafa's slice vs Novak's ability to change direction on lower pace balls, Rafa's 2nd serve (the most successful on tour) vs Novak's leading 2nd-serve-return-points-won this tournament (61%). And finally slam-winning form vs gamestyle. Something has to give. Providing we don't get any rain/indoor conditions, and Rafa's 5 setter vs Delpo hasn't taken a physical toll, we could be in for an epic.



I expect Novak to get tight in certain moments, but he is the fresher of the two by far and I'm not convinced the game-style and surface dynamics, favouring Nole, will be sufficiently negated by Rafa's better, slam-winning form.



Prediction: Djokovic in 5

Anderson vs Isner



H2H: 3-8 (Isner)

Last Match: 2015, Indian Wells (7-6, 6-2 Isner)

H2H Grass: 0-1 (Isner)



Isner holds a significant H2H advantage (winning their last 5 matches in a row), as well as winning their only previous match on grass. But as we are quickly discovering with Anderson there are two versions of the South African: before-2017 and post-2017. In the past two years Kando has transformed himself into a serious contender at the biggest tournaments, first meeting Nadal for the US Open title last year, and now upsetting Federer at Wimbledon to make his first Wimbledon semi-final. As a result it becomes hard to judge their semi-final based on their history, which involves no matches played since 2015. Added to this, the fact that across their 11 matches 13(!) tiebreaks have been required, makes this semi-final matchup much closer than their H2H may suggest.



Serve



Both players have been imperious on serve this fortnight. 69% of Isner's serves have been unreturned to 63% for Anderson. Both guys win so many free points in their own service games but also rank at the much lower end of returns games and points won. This means we're in store for lots of comfortable holds of serve from both players and what will probably be rare, if any, breaks of serve. In his match vs Raonic yesterday, Isner faced only one break point for the entire match, which he saved. Anderson has been less stingy with break point opportunities, but his opponent yesterday (Federer) is a significantly better returner than Raonic. The one interesting exception here is that Anderson's 2nd serve points won % is 63% to Isners 56%. That is a substantial difference that will become particularly important if either players' 1st serve in % dips at any point during the match.



Return



There is very little reason to believe that Anderson will be able to return Isner's serve any more capably than the rest of the field so far. And Isner's own return game is simply just not good enough to give Kando real trouble on his serve. Anderson is only the 89th best returner on tour for the past year stats-wise. Isner 103rd. So, Tiebreaks it is!



Tiebreaks



Looking at the numbers, Kando has won 60% of his tiebreaks over the past year. Isner 57%. It's a small but potentially significant edge given that many tiebreakers are won in the space of one or two points. Simply, in recent history, Kando is ever so slightly more successful winning in high-pressure situations than Isner. Whether or not that will manifest into any real mental advantage tomorrow is hard to tell.



Overall this match is really too hard to call. Anderson has better slam pedigree, having already made it to a final. Isner has the better serve, but only just. Anderson has the less-bad return, but only just. The only meaningful stat which really sets them apart is 2nd serve points won %, which gives a not-insignificant advantage to Anderson.



Expect tiebreaks aplenty and lots of tense moments.



Prediction: Anderson in 5 SEMI-FINALS (FRIDAY) OOP ⏰ Match to watch = 🔥 Centre Court

(1pm Start) Anderson vs Isner (3-8)

Prediction: Anderson in 5



Nadal vs Djokovic (H2H: 25-26) 🔥

Prediction: Djokovic in 5

Full Order of Play EXTRAS...🔍🎤📊 In the first two sets of Isner vs. Raonic yesterday, there wasn't a single deuce game.

Nadal and Del Potro combined for an amazing 144 winners in their match yesterday (to only 86 unforced errors). Over 5 hours that is staggeringly good.

Kevin Anderson's record against Monfils (R16) was 0-5 pre-match. He won.

Kevin Anderson's record against Federer (QF) was 0-4 pre-match. He won.

Djokovic is the only player with 60% or greater baseline points won at Wimbledon so far. (Nadal = 55%).

The average age of all 4 semi-finalists is 32.

Time spent on court to reach the semi finals:



Djokovic - 10hrs, 19 minutes

Isner - 12 hrs,15 minutes

Nadal - 12 hrs, 57 minutes

Anderson - 14 hrs, 25 minutes

Nadal has never lost a quarter or semi final at Wimbledon. He has won all 11 matches he has played at those stages. Share Tweet Forward GAME, SET & MATCH 👋 The Racquet is created, and written, by Matt. You can find me on twitter by tapping/clicking this. You early subscribers (Beta testers) get access to 'The Racquet' Discord. Tap/click the Discord button below to join (we even have Jerzy Janowicz emojis). If you know anyone who would like 'The Racquet' here is the link to send them so they can sign up: https://theracquet.co See you tomorrow for SEMI-FINALS DAY at Wimbledon!