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It is on the strong leadership score that some separation appears. On this measure, both Harper (30) and Mulcair (27) pull away from Trudeau (20). This provides a more demonstrable advantage for Harper than it does for Mulcair.

On balance, then, Harper likely wins on the competence dimension, while Mulcair comes a close second and Trudeau a more distant third. But what Trudeau loses on that metric he more than makes up for on the character dimension.

Character

When asked which leaders can be described as trustworthy, just over one in ten (12) choose Harper. To put that in perspective, even among those who voted Conservative in the last election, just one in three (32) say Harper is trustworthy. By contrast, 21 per cent indicate that Trudeau is trustworthy and Mulcair receives essentially the same score (22).

The news is even worse for Harper on the empathy front. When asked whether they believe that Harper really cares about people like them, just nine per cent of voters agree. Even among prior Conservative voters, the share is just 24 per cent. Mulcair does better: Twenty-three per cent of voters identify him as someone who really cares about people like them. Trudeau is tops at 29 per cent.

Importantly, these scores have shown little movement over the course of the campaign, and the most marked movement has been in favour of the Prime Minister. In the first ten days of our sample (beginning August 26) Harper’s leadership and intelligence scores were 28 and 33. In the last ten days, they register at 33 and 36. His trust and care scores have also grown marginally, from 8 and 11 to 9 and 14. Far from hurting him, the long campaign appears to have helped Harper.