Conservatives Continue to Hold Big Lead

Toronto, May 12th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1103 Ontario voters, more than 4-in-10 (41%) say they would support the Progressive Conservatives. More than a quarter (28%) say they would support the Liberals, just under a quarter (23%) say they would support the NDP. (6%) say they support the Green Party, and (3%) say they would support another party.

Respondents most likely to support the Progressive Conservatives include those aged 65+ (51%), males (50%), earning $80,000-$100,000 (47%), the most wealthy (48%), living in Eastern (45%) or Southwestern Ontario (45%), the least educated (45%) or with some college/university (48%).

Respondents most likely to support the Liberals include those aged 35-44 (36%), females (33%), the least wealthy (40%), living in Toronto (36%), and with a post-graduate degree (38%).

Respondents most likely to support the NDP include those aged 34 or younger (33%), the least wealthy (28%) or earning $60,000-$80,000 (29%).

Conservatives still tracking toward majority

If an election were held today, the Progressive Conservatives would likely secure 72 seats, more than needed for a majority in the 122 seat legislature.

The Liberals and the NDP would each secure 25 seats.

Horwath popular; Wynne and Brown, not so much

Kathleen Wynne’s approval is (15%), and her disapproval (73%) is almost three-quarters. (12%) do not know whether to approve or disapprove of the Premier’s performance.

Patrick Brown’s approval is (19%), and his disapproval is more than a quarter (26%). The majority, (54%), don’t know enough about Patrick Brown to offer an opinion.

Andrew Horwath is the most popular of the three leaders with an approval of more than a third (34%), with disapproval of only a quarter (25%). 4-in-10 (40%) say they do not know about Andrea Horwath.

Brown seen as best for the economy

Almost a third (31%), see Patrick Brown as the best potential steward of Ontario’s economy, more than 2-in-10 (21%) see Andrea Horwath as best for the economy, and only (13%) see Kathleen Wynne as best for the economy.

The plurality of respondents (35%) do not know which provincial leader would be the best for Ontario’s economy.

Andrea Horwath seen as most trustworthy

Almost a third (29%) see Andrea Horwath as the most trustworthy of the three provincial leaders, a quarter (25%) see Patrick Brown as the most trustworthy, and just over 1-in-10 (11%) see Kathleen Wynne as the most trustworthy.

Brown best premier, Andrea Horwath just behind

More than a quarter (27%) believe that Patrick Brown would make the best Premier of Ontario, though Andrea Horwath (24%) is statistically tied with him on that measure. Kathleen Wynne is well behind the pair with just over 1-in-10 (13%) saying she would be the best premier. A quarter (24%) say none of the above would make a good premier, with (12%) saying they don’t know.

“The Progressive Conservatives continue to hold a considerable lead in Ontario. While it’s true Ontarians may be somewhat disengaged in provincial politics between elections, you can be sure the other parties would be happy to have the numbers we’re seeing for the Progressive Conservatives right now,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.