Epidemics end in one of three ways:

1- Everyone who can get infected gets infected (see Black Death in Medieval Europe, Smallpox in Age of Exploration Americas, Spanish Flu in 1918–1920)

2- Government action finds everyone who is sick, quarantines them, and prevents further spreading (see Wuhan China, 2020, SARS in China In 2002, Ebola in West Africa, 2018)

3- Transmission slows in warm/dry weather (see influenza, every year)

We don’t know yet if Covid-19 will slow down when the Northern Hemisphere turns to Spring. Right now China is succeeding at #2, South Korea is trying, and rumor has it Italy will quarantine the North soon, but the rest of Europe and United States are experiencing uncontrolled outbreaks. Worst case is like Spanish flu, Covid-19 continues to spread throughout 2020, perhaps with a lull in the Summer, then continues on into 2021 until everyone has been exposed.

So far for most people who have caught the virus, it’s just another cold. Unfortunately for 2%-3.4%, it’s deadly.

4- Vaccine and/or treatment. It is possible a vaccine or treatment is found before everyone is infected. This doesn’t look likely given how long medical trials typically take, but these are not typical times.

In this past week of research while worrying about family (who are luckily not sick enough to be in a hospital but unluckily enough living in the U.S. where tests are not available unless you are in critical condition in a hospital)

The news from the CDC is that the U.S. is headed down path #1, with projections of between 160 million and 250 million people infected, with an estimated 1% mortality rate.