When I came up with the “Value Above Market Price” (VAMP) metric that has fueled For The Win’s “NFL Moneyball” series, one of the goals was to not only identify the league’s most overpaid players but to also to put a number on it. VAMP allows us to just that, and we’ve used it to rank the 20 players who will be the most overpaid during the 2019 NFL season.

Before we get to the rankings, a brief explanation of what VAMP is and how we calculate it. You can also read a more thorough breakdown here. If you’re familiar with the metric, feel free to move on to the rankings below.

Value Above Market Price, explained The goal of Value Above Market Price (VAMP) is to measure how much a player is being paid for his production compared to the league-wide market rate for his position. A player’s VAMP is based on his production and cap hit in a given season. To calculate a player’s “production score,” I simply multiplied his Pro Football Focus grade by the number of snaps he played. Let’s use Patrick Mahomes as an example. Mahomes scored a PFF grade of 92.9 and played 1,165 snaps in 2018. So his “production score” was 108,228. Then I had to figure how much the league was paying for each “point” in that “production score.” So for quarterbacks, I added up every QB’s cap hit and divided it by the total “production score” of all QBs. That told us that in 2018, NFL teams paid $203.16 for every production point. (More on that later.) Using that number, I can determine how much Mahomes’ production was worth based on the market price for quarterbacks. We’ll call that number his “Real Market Value”… Finally, to get Mahomes’ VAMP, I just subtract his cap hit from his Real Market Value… Essentially, Mahomes provided the Chiefs with an additional $18.2 million in production.

Got it? Good. Using a player’s performance in 2018 as a guide, we’ve projected out every NFL player’s VAMP for the 2019 season. Here are the 20 with the lowest projected VAMP for next season…

On his best days, Matt Stafford can look like a quarterback who might be worth elite QB money, but those days have grown increasingly sporadic since he signed a contract that made him the league’s highest-paid player for brief time. That deal gives him the largest cap hit for the 2019 season at $29.5 million.

When the Chiefs added Sammy Watkins during the 2018 offseason, many believed he would turn Kansas City into an offensive power. Well, that happened, but Watkins didn’t play a large role. He’s Patrick Mahomes' third option, but he’s not being paid like it in 2019.

Kirk Cousins apologists may point to the Vikings offensive line as the main culprit for the team’s disappointing 2018 season, but it’s hard to build a competent offense when the quarterback is taking up so much of the salary cap. Cousins is being paid like a player who can overcome a weakened supporting cast, but he’s never proven that to be the case. Maybe Minnesota could build him a better line if it had an extra $11.9 million in cap space lying around.

It’s been three seasons since Jimmy Smith has played at least 700 snaps for the Ravens. Even if he’s able to stay healthy in 2019, he’ll have to give Baltimore more in terms of on-field of production. His performance slipped in 2018 and if he’s unable to bounce back, the Ravens will have a hard time working around his monster cap hit for 2019.

After Year 1, the decision to sign Janoris Jenkins to a big free-agent deal looked like a smart one. After three years, it’s bordering on a disaster. Jenkins hasn’t played well and his cap hit will balloon to nearly $15 million. If the Giants were willing to deal a high-priced asset this offseason, it should have been Jenkins and not a certain wide receiver. Actually, it probably should have been this next guy…

You just knew Eli Manning would show up somewhere on this list. At $23.2 million, Eli will be one of the highest-paid QBs in the league, and the Giants front office seems excited to pay him. At this point in his career, is there anything in Eli’s game you can point to and say ‘Yeah, that will help his team win’? The answer is no.

Trent Brown is a perfectly average left tackle, which was fine when he was making a rookie wage in New England. The Raiders made him the highest-paid left tackle in league history. Even if Brown takes a step forward, he won’t play up to his 2019 cap hit.

One of the few decisions Dave Gettleman got right over the last few years was the one to rescind the franchise tag from then-Panthers corner Josh Norman. The Redskins gave him the big contract he was looking for and they have to be regretting that decision now. Norman has been exposed as a corner who struggles in man coverage but he’s being paid like a shutdown guy.

Injuries have certainly set back Desmond Trufant’s career, but it’s been a loooooong time since we’ve seen him play at a level that would warrant a $13.9 million cap hit. Very few corners are capable of doing playing at that level. Trufant hasn’t been one of them since his second season in the NFL.

Malcolm Butler could not have played worse over the first half of his first season in Tennessee, but he did rebound nicely at the end of 2018. Even so, Butler is being paid like a top corner after signing a big-money deal last offseason. Unless he somehow regains his 2016 form, Butler will cost the Titans more than he’s worth.

Don’t let the big sack total fool you: Jason Pierre-Paul’s debut season in Tampa did not go all that well. Yes, he came up with 12.5 sacks, but his pressure numbers were down across the board. The Bucs should be shopping JPP around, hoping that a team will see those 12.5 sacks and decide he’s worth the $14.9 cap hit he’s carrying in 2019.

Not only is Jarvis Landry being paid like a No. 1 receiver despite the fact that he’s strictly a slot weapon, but it’s also been two years since he’s received an “above average” grade from Pro Football Focus. PFF isn’t gospel, but Landry’s efficiency numbers are underwhelming, too. With the top slot receivers in the league pulling in around $9 mil a year, Landry’s projected 2019 VAMP makes a lot of sense.

There are only a handful of linebackers in the league who might be worth what Kwon Alexander will cost the 49ers in 2019, and he’s not one of them. The linebacker position is non-essential, so it doesn’t make a lot of sense to pour a ton of money into it. That’s what the 49ers did, and they gave that money to an inconsistent player who can’t stay on the field.

It’s safe to say that Derek Carr is not worth the big deal he signed during the 2017 offseason. With a better supporting cast, Carr may look like a QB capable of carrying a franchise and he’ll get that in 2019. That is, unless the Raiders (wisely) decide that he’s not worth the $6.7 million premium they’re paying him to be on the roster, according to VAMP.

According to PFF’s grading scale, Joe Haden hasn’t played above average football since 2013. In the meantime, he’s dealt with a number of nagging injuries. In other words, the chances of him producing at a level that would be worth his $11.9 million cap hit are not great.

Don’t overpay centers in free agency! If you take anything from this exercise, that’s it. The Bucs made that mistake and now they’re stuck with a below-average center who will count $10 million against the cap a year after costing Tampa $12 million in cap space.

Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan have a lot in common: They were both free agent cornerbacks from New England who are now both tremendously overpaid in Tennessee. Both guys are still capable of playing solid football, but they’re being paid like stars.

The Bills could still part ways with LeSean McCoy before the season starts, but if they don’t, they’ll be paying a 30-year-old running back who has been in decline for three years elite running back money. Playing behind Buffalo’s porous line won’t make him look any better.

Kiko Alonso is bad at football. And he’s bad at football while playing one of the sport’s more expendable positions. Some free advice to Miami: Don’t overpay linebackers, and, whatever you do, don’t overpay the ones who can’t cover or tackle. On the brightside, Alonso should help the team in its efforts to tank the 2019 season.

This isn't really fair to Smith, who is unlikely to play a game in 2019 after suffering a gruesome leg injury late in 2018. But the Redskins are paying him $20.4 million to rehab, which is going to force the front office to put together its roster with one hand tied behind its back.

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