February 1 Update: Sony reports this morning that Miss Bala earned $650K from shows beginning at 7pm in 2,050 theaters on Thursday night. For comparison purposes, Peppermint earned $800K last fall. Early weekend estimates to follow on Saturday morning.

January 30 Report: The dead zone of late January will reach its nadir this weekend as the box office endures another lull due to the lack of high profile new releases combined with the effects of Sunday’s NFL Super Bowl game.

Despite the success of films like Dear John ($30.5 million), The Woman In Black ($20.9 million), Chronicle ($22.0 million), and Warm Bodies ($20.4 million) between 2010 and 2013 (not to forget Taken‘s $24.7 million in 2009 and Hannah Montana‘s $31.1 million in 2008), it’s been six years since any new release earned more than $13 million (2017’s Rings) on SB weekend. In contrast to the increased adoption of year-round scheduling for blockbusters, this has become a weekend studios have increasingly avoided. That six-year streak isn’t likely to change this year as Sony is the only new entrant into the market this weekend with Miss Bala, a thriller whose tracking signals are relatively modest. We’re expecting a debut anywhere between $4 – 8 million.

Oscar candidates and kid-driven films will be the least susceptible to massive drops this weekend, but we’re also keeping an eye on Peter Jackson’s They Shall Not Grow Old as the highly acclaimed WWI documentary will expand into an estimated 500 theaters beginning Friday. The film earned $8.34 million from limited screenings on January 21, December 17, and December 27, smashing records for one-day event screenings. With a full weekend slate of showtimes ahead and significant buzz for the Warner Bros. / Fathom Events release, it wouldn’t be surprising if the film shoulders a strong enough haul to crack the top five this weekend. It might even be a dark horse candidate to top Bala.

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $52 million. That would represent a 21 percent decline from the same weekend last year when Winchester marked the lone opener on the comparable Super Bowl weekend, which saw the top ten films earn $65.7 million.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 3 % Change from Last Wknd Glass Universal $9,500,000 $88,500,000 -50% The Upside STX $7,400,000 $74,000,000 -38% Miss Bala Sony / Columbia $6,500,000 $6,500,000 NEW They Shall Not Grow Old Warner Bros. $4,600,000 $12,940,000 — Green Book Universal $4,300,000 $55,700,000 -22% The Kid Who Would Be King Fox $4,300,000 $13,100,000 -40% Aquaman Warner Bros. $4,000,000 $322,600,000 -45% Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Sony / Columbia $3,900,000 $174,600,000 -36% A Dog’s Way Home Sony / Columbia $3,200,000 $35,300,000 -37% Escape Room Sony / Columbia $2,300,000 $51,400,000 -44%

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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