Guest column by Kevin Kolbe

This is the third year in a series of columns analyzing how much various quarterbacks around the league are worth relative to each other. For those of you who don't remember the previous articles, you can read the original 2015 article here. The goal of this annual series is to develop a formula to accurately gauge a quarterback's worth. This will be done by comparing each quarterback's yearly cap hit to statistical performance in TANY/A (Total Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt), and then by adjusting that base amount according to his importance to the offense (judged by plays per game). The final result is deemed a player's PAYD (Pay by Average Yards and Demand).

A couple of administrative notes for past readers: this is the first version to use annual cap hits as the standard for comparison (as opposed to average value), and also the first to calculate time on field to one-tenth of a game, resulting in a more accurate measurement of plays per game.

Having refined the process a bit, I also added more data to evaluate, so this year's article will look at all qualifying quarterback seasons (those who played at least eight full games) since 2012 to see what can be determined. However, let's start with the results from the 2016 season:

Quarterbacks and PAYD, 2016 (8+ games played) Player Games Plays/G TANY/A Base Value Rookie-Adjusted

Base Value PAYD Cap Hit PAYD-Cap M.Ryan 15.7 39.6 8.55 $24.2

$24.2 $23.8 $0.4 T.Brady 11.6 40.9 8.19 $22.3

$23.8 $13.8 $10.0 D.Brees 16.0 45.2 6.97 $15.7

$20.1 $17.3 $2.8 A.Rodgers 15.7 45.4 6.93 $15.4

$19.9 $19.3 $0.6 D.Prescott* 15.3 35.4 8.11 $21.8 $23.7 $18.7 $0.5 $18.2 K.Cousins 16.0 41.4 7.03 $16.0

$17.5 $20.0 $(2.5) D.Carr* 14.9 41.3 6.68 $14.1 $15.9 $17.3 $1.5 $15.8 A.Luck 14.9 43.6 6.54 $13.3

$16.0 $18.4 $(2.4) B.Roethlisberger 13.3 40.8 6.74 $14.4

$15.3 $24.0 $(8.7) M.Stafford 16.0 41.8 6.46 $12.9

$14.3 $22.5 $(8.2) M.Mariota* 14.4 37.2 6.68 $14.1 $15.9 $14.0 $5.5 $8.5 R.Wilson 15.3 43.2 6.03 $10.6

$12.5 $18.5 $(6.0) A.Dalton 16.0 40.6 6.16 $11.3

$11.9 $13.1 $(1.2) T.Siemian* 13.5 40.4 5.67 $8.6 $10.5 $10.9 $0.5 $10.4 T.Taylor 14.7 39.0 6.13 $11.1

$10.8 $6.9 $3.9 Player Games Plays/G TANY/A Base Value Rookie-Adjusted

Base Value PAYD Cap Hit PAYD-Cap S.Bradford 14.9 41.0 5.92 $10.0

$10.7 $7.0 $3.7 A.Smith 14.2 39.9 5.97 $10.2

$10.4 $17.8 $(7.4) P.Rivers 15.9 39.5 5.96 $10.2

$10.1 $16.5 $(6.4) J.Winston* 15.9 41.2 5.44 $7.4 $9.2 $9.9 $5.8 $4.1 B.Bortles* 16.0 44.9 5.16 $5.9 $7.7 $9.8 $5.6 $4.2 C.Palmer 14.7 44.3 5.48 $7.6

$9.4 $18.4 $(9.0) C.Kaepernick 10.8 40.4 5.69 $8.7

$9.1 $16.8 $(7.7) J.Flacco 15.8 45.9 5.21 $6.1

$8.0 $22.6 $(14.6) E.Manning 16.0 40.0 5.50 $7.7

$7.9 $24.2 $(16.3) C.Newton 14.7 43.3 5.30 $6.6

$7.8 $19.5 $(11.7) R.Tannehill 12.9 35.4 5.69 $8.7

$6.9 $11.6 $(4.7) C.Wentz* 16.0 42.9 4.57 $2.7 $4.5 $5.3 $4.9 $0.4 C.Keenum 9.1 40.1 4.67 $3.2

$3.3 $3.6 $(0.3) R.Fitzpatrick 11.8 38.6 4.46 $2.1

$2.0 $12.0 $(10.0) B.Osweiler 13.9 40.9 4.18 $0.6

$0.6 $12.0 $(11.4) * Base value adjusted for players still on their rookie contracts.

As you probably would have guessed, Matt Ryan led all quarterbacks last year with 8.55 adjusted net yards/play. Unsurprisingly, he ended up with the highest PAYD value. Tom Brady was a very close second, being only slightly less efficient. Drew Brees (not Dak Prescott) was a somewhat distant third, being far less efficient than Ryan or Brady, but with the overwhelming volume that we generally expect with his role in the Saints offense. Brock Osweiler finished dead last, with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Case Keenum not far away.

Let's talk about Drew Brees for a moment, because his numbers have been of particular interest to me. When I first presented my proposal for the PAYD formula, I was asked by both commenters and editors two questions: First, why I took plays per game into account, and second, why I chose the modifier that I did. The answer to the first was pretty easy, as I genuinely feel that plays per game is a good indicator of how much trust a coach places in his quarterback. In 2013, for example, Sam Bradford was averaging 42.3 plays per game until he got injured. Kellen Clemens finished out the year for the Rams, and, despite spending less time with a lead, only averaged 31.4 plays per game. This clearly spoke to Clemens not being asked to do as much. Of course, other things affect plays per game as well. Over the past five years, the season in which Aaron Rodgers was entrusted with the fewest plays per game was 2014, despite the fact that it was his best season during that span. Likewise, Matt Schaub's 47.4 plays per game in 2013 is the second-highest such mark since 2012, even though that was one of the worst seasons we've seen. That's because Rodgers spent a lot of time handing the ball off to run out the clock, while Schaub was desperately trying to get back into games.

So now the second question: Why did I put this particular value on play demand? PAYD modifies base value by twice the percentage difference of plays per game (in 2016, using Matt Ryan's 39.6 plays per game as the standard). For example, if a quarterback with a base value of $10 million averaged 43.6 plays per game (10 percent more than Ryan's mark), his PAYD would be $12 million per year (20 percent more than his base value). I chose this method in order to account for quarterbacks who played badly and were forced to pass the ball more to catch up. For example, in 2013, Matt Schaub had 21.5 percent more plays per game than Nick Foles (the most efficient quarterback that year). However, because Schaub's base value was so low, that huge percentage increase did almost nothing for him. Unfortunately, another type of quarterback presents another issue: Drew Brees (who I promised to talk about two paragraphs ago).

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Over the past five years, Drew Brees has had the most plays per game with 45.0, and the highest PAYD value in the league, averaging $20.6 million per year. This seems odd: after all, even in Brees' best season, he was still only the fourth most efficient quarterback in the NFL. That can't be good. However, I looked at his worst season in that span and discovered it actually wasn't that much lower. In fact, looking at all five seasons, Brees is actually the fifth most efficient quarterback in the league. The most efficient has been Prescott, whom we can probably disregard due to a small sample size of one season. (Kirk Cousins, at No. 4, was similarly brushed off.) The second- and third-ranked quarterbacks have been Rodgers and Brady, each within two-tenths of a yard per play. Additionally, while the top nine quarterbacks in per-play efficiency each cracked the top 10 list for PAYD, only two of the top four quarterbacks in plays per game could make the same boast. Andrew Luck was the only player to make the top 10 in PAYD without being one of the 10 most efficient, but he benefitted from both a high number of plays per game and the "potential" modifier (see last year's article for a description of this). Feel free to let me know what you think in the comments, but for now I think I am going to leave that modifier as is.

For those interested, here is full PAYD and value data for all qualifying quarterbacks in the past five years:

Quarterback PAYD Value, 2012-2016 Name 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average D.Brees $22.3 $19.3 $15.7 $25.7 $20.1 $20.6 T.Brady $23.6 $9.0 $14.4 $26.0 $23.8 $19.4 K.Cousins*





$20.0 $17.5 $18.8 D.Prescott







$18.7 $18.7 A.Rodgers $19.9 $18.3 $20.4 $14.1 $19.9 $18.5 M.Ryan $19.8 $9.0 $15.4 $16.3 $24.2 $16.9 B.Roethlisberger $15.6 $9.5 $18.4 $24.5 $15.3 $16.7 P.Manning $20.9 $27.1 $16.9 $1.2

$16.5 A.Luck* $15.8 $12.9 $20.8

$16.0 $16.4 R.Wilson* $12.2 $10.5 $13.8 $24.4 $12.5 $14.7 M.Mariota





$14.8 $14.0 $14.4 M.Stafford $17.9 $10.5 $10.9 $17.2 $14.3 $14.2 J.Freeman* $13.6







$13.6 C.Palmer $14.7 $5.9

$23.8 $9.4 $13.5 C.Newton* $18.0 $9.7 $9.2 $22.3 $7.8 $13.4 T.Romo $17.2 $10.7 $12.2



$13.4 R.Griffin* $17.7 $8.9





$13.3 A.Dalton* $12.0 $12.2 $8.1 $21.5 $11.9 $13.1 Name 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average J.Winston





$16.3 $9.9 $13.1 T.Taylor





$15.2 $10.8 $13.0 D.Carr



$5.3 $15.8 $17.3 $12.8 P.Rivers $6.7 $15.2 $11.0 $19.1 $10.1 $12.4 N.Foles*

$22.6

$2.2

$12.4 B.Hoyer



$7.8 $14.7

$11.3 T.Siemian







$10.9 $10.9 J.Locker* $10.6







$10.6 A.Smith $10.4 $9.0 $9.1 $14.0 $10.4 $10.6 M.Vick $10.4







$10.4 E.Manning $12.8 $0.7 $12.8 $16.9 $7.9 $10.2 S.Bradford* $11.4



$7.8 $10.7 $10.0 B.Bortles



$2.8 $16.7 $9.8 $9.8 J.Cutler $7.1 $8.8 $7.8 $14.4

$9.5 R.Tannehill* $8.8 $6.4 $11.9 $13.3 $6.9 $9.5 B.Gabbert* $6.8



$11.1

$9.0 J.Flacco $12.4 $1.2 $10.7 $10.7 $8.0 $8.6 R.Fitzpatrick $8.2 $6.6 $9.2 $16.9 $2.0 $8.6 Name 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average B.Weeden* $8.5







$8.5 K.Orton



$8.4



$8.4 T.Bridgewater



$8.2 $8.2

$8.2 C.Kaepernick

$9.5 $9.4 $4.1 $9.1 $8.0 M.Schaub $12.2 $2.4





$7.3 C.Ponder* $7.2







$7.2 M.Sanchez* $2.7

$9.7



$6.2 C.Wentz*







$5.3 $5.3 G.Smith

$2.0 $5.4



$3.7 E.Manuel

$3.7





$3.7 C.Henne

$3.5





$3.5 M.Cassel $3.3







$3.3 C.Keenum







$3.3 $3.3 M.Glennon*

$3.2





$3.2 K.Clemens

$1.3





$1.3 J.McCown



$0.8



$0.8 B.Osweiler







$0.6 $0.6 * Player was on rookie contract for at least one season.

Difference Between PAYD and Cap Hit, 2012-2016 Name 2012 Dif 2013 Dif 2014 Dif 2015 Dif 2016 Dif Total Dif R.Wilson* $11.7 $9.8 $13.0 $17.3 $(6.0) $45.8 D.Carr*



$4.3 $14.6 $15.8 $34.7 A.Luck* $11.8 $7.9 $14.8

$(2.4) $32.1 A.Dalton* $10.8 $10.8 $(1.0) $11.9 $(1.2) $31.3 T.Brady $9.8 $(4.8) $(0.4) $12.0 $10.0 $26.6 R.Tannehill* $6.5 $3.5 $8.4 $8.4 $(4.7) $22.1 N.Foles*

$21.9

$(1.8)

$20.1 C.Palmer $10.7 $1.9

$16.4 $(9.0) $20.0 R.Fitzpatrick $5.8 $4.2 $5.8 $13.6 $(10.0) $19.4 M.Mariota*





$10.4 $8.5 $18.9 D.Prescott*







$18.2 $18.2 T.Taylor





$14.3 $3.9 $18.2 R.Griffin* $13.9 $4.1





$18.0 A.Rodgers $11.4 $6.6 $2.8 $(4.2) $0.6 $17.2 K.Cousins*





$19.3 $(2.5) $16.8 C.Newton* $13.0 $3.7 $2.2 $9.3 $(11.7) $16.5 B.Hoyer



$6.5 $9.5

$16.0 J.Winston*





$11.7 $4.1 $15.8 Name 2012 Dif 2013 Dif 2014 Dif 2015 Dif 2016 Dif Total Dif B.Bortles*



$(1.0) $12.0 $4.2 $15.2 T.Bridgewater*



$7.0 $6.6

$13.6 B.Gabbert* $4.1



$9.3

$13.4 J.Freeman* $12.3







$12.3 T.Siemian*







$10.4 $10.4 D.Brees $4.9 $1.9 $(2.7) $1.9 $2.8 $8.8 J.Locker* $7.7







$7.7 B.Weeden* $7.0







$7.0 G.Smith

$1.1 $4.3



$5.4 C.Ponder* $4.9







$4.9 T.Romo $5.4 $(1.1) $0.4



$4.7 M.Ryan $10.2 $(0.6) $(2.1) $(3.2) $0.4 $4.7 K.Orton



$4.4



$4.4 M.Glennon*

$2.6





$2.6 E.Manuel*

$2.1





$2.1 B.Roethlisberger $6.7 $(4.1) $(0.5) $7.3 $(8.7) $0.7 K.Clemens

$0.7





$0.7 C.Wentz*







$0.4 $0.4 Name 2012 Dif 2013 Dif 2014 Dif 2015 Dif 2016 Dif Total Dif C.Keenum







$(0.3) $(0.3) M.Cassel $(0.4)







$(0.4) C.Henne

$(1.2)





$(1.2) S.Bradford* $(1.2) - - $(5.2) $3.7 $(2.7) M.Sanchez* $(10.2)

$7.4



$(2.8) A.Smith $1.1 $0.5 $4.5 $(1.6) $(7.4) $(2.9) M.Vick $(3.5)







$(3.5) P.Manning $3.4 $9.6 $(0.6) $(16.3)

$(3.9) J.McCown



$(4.0)



$(4.0) C.Kaepernick*

$8.1 $5.6 $(11.2) $(7.7) $(5.2) M.Schaub $1.4 $(8.4)





$(7.0) B.Osweiler







$(11.4) $(11.4) J.Cutler $(2.5) $(1.6) $(10.7) $(2.1)

$(16.9) M.Stafford $0.1 $(7.3) $(4.9) $(0.5) $(8.2) $(20.8) P.Rivers $(8.6) $1.4 $(5.7) $(2.1) $(6.4) $(21.4) J.Flacco $5.6 $(5.6) $(4.1) $(3.9) $(14.6) $(22.6) E.Manning $(8.1) $(20.2) $(7.6) $2.4 $(16.3) $(49.8) * Player was on rookie contract for at least one season.

Looking back at the last five years, here are some fun facts:

The best single-season value was Nick Foles, who overachieved his pay by $21.9 million in 2013. If we throw out players on rookie deals, though, the best value becomes 2012 Aaron Rodgers, whose PAYD exceeded his cap hit by $11.4 million. The worst single-season value was Eli Manning, coming in a full $20.2 million below his cap hit in 2013.

Over the last five years, the best total value was Russell Wilson. This shouldn't really surprise anyone. Given how absurdly low his cap hits have been, and considering that young players get a bonus to their PAYD value, he had a huge advantage for four of the five years in this study. Andrew Luck missed 2015 and had a higher average cap hit, so despite a slightly higher PAYD, he comes out behind Wilson on value. Among non-rookie deals, the even less surprising winner is Tom Brady, whose combined PAYD from 2012-2016 was $26.6 million higher than his total cap hits. Carson Palmer came in next at $20.0 million above, and Ryan Fitzpatrick third at $19.4 million. Despite only having two qualifying seasons, Tyrod Taylor managed a strong fourth place with $18.2 million.

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On the other end of the spectrum, the worst PAYD deficit came from Eli Manning, and it wasn't close. You may remember that he had the worst single-season value in the last five years in 2013, but he also managed the second-worst in that span in 2016. Man, having rings sure pays off. Over the past 5 years, Eli's PAYD has been worth $49.8 million less than his cap hits. A distant second place goes to Joe Flacco at $22.6 million below, with Philip Rivers and Matthew Stafford being less than $2.0 million behind. Stafford, by the way, was one of the league leaders in plays per game at 44.5. Fourth from the bottom, and worthy of mention, is Jay Cutler at minus-$16.9 million. Had he qualified in 2016, he likely would have moved into second place.

Next year, in addition to adding in additional seasons (I eventually plan on going back to 2004), I plan on weighting cap percentage more heavily to aid in comparing across seasons. After all, Peyton Manning's 27.1 million PAYD value may already seem impressive, but in 2013, that was 22 percent of the cap, which would have been unheard of. If you have other suggestions, feel free to comment below.

Guest columnist Kevin Kolbe is originally from Houston, Texas, and has been in the Air Force since December of 2001. If you are interested in writing a guest column, something that takes a new angle on the NFL, please email us your idea at Contact Us.