New poll has Obama, McCain nearly tied

A new poll showing Sens. Barack Obama (D-IL) and John McCain (R-AZ) essentially tied in the race for the White House has prompted one pundit to ask if Obama has "peaked too soon."

Rasmussen Reports released their latest survey today with Obama at 44% of the vote, while McCain was at 42%, a statistical tie. The senators had been actually tied at 43% for the past two days of Rasmussen's daily tracking poll.

Obama's lead in the Rasmussen poll, conducted via telephone surveys, has faltered in recent weeks. Additionally, Obama's "unfavorable" reviews are higher than McCain's, 43% to 41%.

Rasmussen suggests that McCain's improved poll ratings may be due in part to more Americans believing "it is possible for the U.S. to win the war in Iraq."

Political analyst Bonnie Erbe, writing at U.S. News & World Report, says of Obama that "if upcoming polls find his lead to have evaporated long term and this weekend's findings turn out to have been more than just 'statistical noise,'" then the Illinois Democrat has likely peaked.

"If so," Erbe continues, "it might just be a bit of poetic justice. A little less than a year ago, Sen. Hillary Clinton was the media-anointed front-runner for the Democratic nomination. Then last winter, she was deemed to have peaked too soon."

Yet recent polls from other sources show Obama maintaining a decent lead over McCain. Pew, for example, released a report last week showing Obama up by eight points over the Arizona Republican.