Eleven Polish regions will ‘statistically prosper’ after Brexit, and close in on the EU average, according to Eurostat data.

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When Britain’s regions of relatively higher income are taken out of the calculation of average incomes of EU regions, without earning a grosz, the Polish regions move up a few notches compared to the average.



When a forecast for UK-free Europe is drawn up, the per capita GDP of 11 out of 16 Polish regions would get closer to the EU average. In the remaining regions, the GDP would remain at the same relative level.



Following Brexit the provinces of Pomerania (north-western Poland), Silesia and Lesser Poland (southern Poland) would be pushed towards 75 percent of the EU average, although none of them would actually cross that boundary.



This significance of this growth can be seen in relation to EU regional development funds, the vast majority of which go to the economically weakest regions of the European Union.



According to the current rules, a region where the GDP per capita is below 75 percent of the average is considered a “less developed region”, and those with a GDP per capita between 75-90 percent of the average are considered “transition regions”. Being closer to the 75 percent of average GDP mark could mean a drop in funds of up to 80 percent.



In terms of Poland as a whole, the GDP per capita in relation to the EU average will also increase by one percent after Brexit, taking it to 69 percent. In comparison, Poland’s GDP has grown 1.5 percent per year on average since its joining the EU in 2004. Poland’s relative position in the EU “rich list” also rose when less well-off countries such as Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia joined, which brought down the average income in the region.



The forecast revealed that Brexit would have the biggest influence on the City of London region, where the GDP per capita would increase by 9 percent. GDP per capita in Luxembourg would grow by 5 percent, in Hamburg by 4 percent, and in Brussels, Prague and Bratislava by 3 percent.