Entering this season, it seemed extremely unlikely that anyone would soon hit his 763rd Major League home run to surpass Barry Bonds and into first place on the sport’s all-time leaderboard. But a couple of resurgent performances in 2015 have changed that some, and as of today, the guys who appear most likely to break Bonds’ record are ones who could do it within the next decade.

Based on little more than cursory Internet research, familiarity with baseball in general, and gut instinct, I took my best crack at handicapping the field. It follows.

Alex Rodriguez: 9/1

Does a one-in-ten shot for ol’ A-Rod sound right? The 40-year-old slugger hit his 679th career homer on Tuesday night, a grand slam that helped the Yankees past the Minnesota Twins. It was Rodriguez’s 25th home run of the season, putting him on pace for about 34. If he could get there this year and, somehow, in the two remaining years on his contract, he’d finish the 2017 season as a 42-year-old free agent with 756 career home runs. And does anyone think A-Rod would gracefully step away while only six home runs shy of Bonds’ mark?

The unlikelihood of Rodriguez staying healthy and productive enough to hit that many homers in his early 40s accounts for most of the estimated 87.5% chance he doesn’t get there. Some might point to the way Bonds finished up and suggest no team will even sign Rodriguez after his current contract expires, but if he really averages 34 home runs the next two seasons, someone would give him a chance. For better or worse, he remains a generational talent, and guys like that seem way more apt to remain productive so late in their careers, as they’re on the way down from a peak far higher than most.

Albert Pujols: 10/1

Pujols also would not have landed so high on this list before the season, at 35 years old and coming off his second straight — and second in his career — year with less than 30 homers. But though Pujols’ 2015 batting average and on-base percentage don’t come close to matching those of his best years in St. Louis, he’s on pace to hit more than 45 homers for the first time since his last MVP campaign in 2009.

Pujols is at 553 home runs now, and his contract with the Angels extends through the 2021 season. It still seems a relative long shot, given Pujols’ age and diminished performance. But if the slugging 2015 version of Pujols is the new Albert Pujols, he’s got a chance. A couple more seasons like this one will narrow those odds.

Mike Trout: 14/1

Again, these odds are totally unscientific. But Trout, for being the best player in baseball from the day he broke in, and for breaking in so early, seems to have the next best shot at Bonds’ mark after a couple of guys who’ve already cleared 550. That’s crazy, but so is Mike Trout.

Trout has slumped this month, but he’s still on pace for about 45 home runs and appears certain to establish a new career high. He’s 24 years old and now one of the Majors’ premiere power hitters, and his healthy track record earlier in his career bodes well for his future. But breaking the all-time home-run record, as it turns out, is fairly difficult: Trout will need to average about 40 homers for the next 16 seasons to get there. But by then it’ll be 2031, and maybe playing some games on the surface of the moon will help pad Trout’s career totals.

Miguel Cabrera: 20/1

Cabrera, too, looked to be trending downward before the start of the 2015 season. But though Cabrera spent most of July and August on the disabled list — the first extended absence of his career — he has hit well enough when healthy to inspire hope for his chances. Cabrera’s only three years younger than Pujols and 147 homers behind. But unlike Pujols, Miggy’s still at the top of his offensive game.

Cabrera’s injury-hampered but still excellent 2014 campaign seemed like it might be the start of a downturn, but now looks more like an anomaly. Still, he’d have to average more than 44 homers a season through the eight guaranteed years left on his contract to get to the top of the list, and he’s never yet hit more than 44 homers in a season. Unless Cabrera somehow winds up on the Rockies or the league-wide offensive environment undergoes another massive shift, he won’t likely get there.

Giancarlo Stanton: 25/1

Stanton might be one of the strongest dudes to ever play baseball, so it seems strange to give him so much longer odds than Trout. But Stanton’s got a couple of factors working against him: He’s signed to play his home games at spacious Marlins Park through at least 2027, and he has missed a lot of time with injuries early in his career.

Maybe none of Stanton’s ailments is the type to riddle him again down the road, but pursuit of the home-run crown is as much a test of durability as strength. Hank Aaron played in at least 145 games every single season from 1955-1970. Stanton has only done that twice in five seasons as a full-time Major Leaguer. He’s got the time and the strength to get there, but he’ll need to stay on the field to do it.

Bryce Harper: 25/1

The same story as Stanton, really, but starting about three years younger and nearly 100 homers short of the Marlins’ slugger. Harper’s youth and power work in his favor, but his early-career track record of injuries does not. His to-date 2015 total of 30 is already a career high, and he’s young enough that there’s a chance he establishes himself as a 50-a-year type guy and gains ground fast.

But, again, it’s really hard to hit more home runs than anyone else. To match Bonds, Harper would need to hit about 37 homers a season from now until he’s 40. And he has yet to play as many as 140 games in any single year.

Jay Bruce: 100/1

The odds there might look like a knock on Bruce, but they’re not meant to be. Bruce is included on this list for a couple of reasons: 1) In preparing this list, I learned that Bruce is the active leader in home runs among hitters under 30, with 200 even, and 2) There’s always some slim chance a very good Major League hitter like Bruce adjusts something in his swing and becomes the best home-run hitter in the league for a while.

Baseball is wacky like that: Jose Bautista was an OK utility player until he turned 29, and has a .940 OPS in the six seasons since. Someone smarter than me can figure out the actual odds of Jay Bruce getting to 763 homers, and they might be even slimmer than mine. I’m just pointing out that weird stuff happens in baseball sometimes, and it’s extremely hard to predict these things. Speaking of which:

The field: 15/1

This accounts for the chance that anyone currently playing Major League Baseball — like Kyle Schwarber, for example — emerges as a historic slugger and someday surpasses Bonds. It’s a tough one to figure, but it doesn’t seem like that huge of a long shot. This is a strange way of looking at it, and the home-run record obviously gets harder to break every time someone breaks it. But Aaron started playing 19 seasons after Ruth’s last season, and Bonds started playing 10 seasons after Aaron hung ’em up. So most MLB seasons for the last 100 years featured an active player who was or would ultimately become the all-time home-run king.

And, again, baseball’s real weird: We’re in a tough era for hitters, but maybe the trend swings back the other way and we see another extended run of inflated offensive numbers. Or maybe Madison Bumgarner pulls a Babe Ruth and goes from being one of the game’s best lefty pitchers to doubling its single-season home run record over the course of the next few seasons.