First moves shape the story of the offseason for many a baseball team. So fans will be watching closely to see where the Blue Jays decide to start the process of renovating their roster for 2017.

A year ago, the first moves were all about pitching. First, free agent Marco Estrada signed. J.A. Happ followed two weeks later. In December, the Jays picked a Double-A pitcher named Joe Biagini in the Rule 5 draft. In January, they traded outfielder Ben Revere to Washington for Drew Storen, a proven late-inning reliever.

Three out of four ain’t bad. The Revere-Storen deal turned out to be a dud for both parties, but without Estrada, Happ and Biagini, Toronto would not have reached the postseason for the second straight year.

This year, president Mark Shapiro, general manager Ross Atkins and their brain trust face a far more complicated puzzle. Twelve Jays are eligible for free agency. The most prominent: hitters Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Michael Saunders, and pitchers Brett Cecil, Jason Grilli, Joaquin Benoit and R.A. Dickey.

Dickey won’t be back. Grilli can stay if the Jays pick up his club option. The others are free to go.

Within days after the World Series ends, the gigantic cement-mixer that is baseball’s offseason market will begin to churn. The Jays, like every other team, have been doing homework and kicking tires and feeling out trade partners for months. Negotiations that fell apart in July may bear fruit in November. And rival clubs, knowing what the Jays need, will come calling with offers to help – for a price.

Those clubs know what the Jays need: more youth, more speed, a left-handed bat (or two), corner outfielders, some bullpen help and, depending on whether they bring back Encarnacion, a first baseman who can hit. (Sorry, Justin Smoak.)

Every team has priorities. But in the offseason, opportunities emerge that can change priorities.

The free-agent market is thin. So, in relative terms, is the Toronto farm system. The best Jays’ prospects are probably at least a year away from a big-league audition, but they have a few good ones that potential trade partners covet.

To keep their best prospects, the Jays might well have to trade from their big-league roster. Or, to fill a significant hole, they might have to yield a top prospect or two. Or, given the cash, they might sign one or more of their own free agents, or someone else’s.

It is likely they will try to do all three – that is, if their short-term goal is to sustain the success of the past two seasons.

The other option is to step back and take a longer view, sacrificing success in 2017 (and perhaps beyond) to rebuild for a longer run later. Shapiro did that in Cleveland in the early 2000s. (Remember the Roberto Alomar trade to the Mets?)

Of course, in Cleveland, he didn’t have any money. He figures the Blue Jays will have a second-tier top-10 payroll in 2017. More on that topic later. Let us first assess the needs.

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Starting Rotation

The area that furrowed many a brow entering spring training became the team’s biggest strength. In his first full season as a starter, Aaron Sanchez survived 203 2/3 innings, thanks in part to the club’s open-minded and adroit handling of his workload. At the moment, the 2017 starting rotation would consist of Sanchez, Estrada, Happ, Marcus Stroman and Francisco Liriano. The team that led the league in ERA appears to be in good shape in that department.

Except for Estrada, whose bad back bothered him off and on all year, the starting staff was healthy. Some of that stems from conditioning routines implemented by the club’s new high-performance department. Luck had to play a part too. Rarely does a rotation survive a season without needing reinforcements.

Which raises the question of a sixth starter for 2017. The answer could be Biagini. He was a starter in the minors and pitched more than one inning 22 times this season. It might not be difficult to stretch him out.

Bullpen

Assuming Biagini remains in the ‘pen, however, only he and closer Roberto Osuna are sure bets for the 2017 bullpen. Grilli was great. He also turns 40 next month. The Jays must decide whether to pick up his option, and whether to try to bring back Cecil, who struggled for much of the season but posted an 0.96 ERA in his final 15 appearances. Given his track record and strong finish, Cecil will draw plenty of suitors. Even if he comes back, the Jays could use another dependable lefty reliever. Benoit, a righty, was terrific too before he got hurt, but he’s a free agent who made $8-million this year and turns 40 next July. Some tough decisions loom.

Will Jason Grilli (right) be back for the Toronto Blue Jays next spring? (Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports)

Catcher

Russ Martin is a key reason the pitching staff was so successful. A streaky hitter who slumped badly over the final month and in the playoffs, he also contributed 20 homers. His defence and game-calling smarts far outweigh his offensive issues. What the Jays do require is a capable backup. Martin caught in 124 games, his highest total since 2009. He needs relief. There is no evidence that it will come from within the system. Their top catching prospect is 21-year-old Reese McGuire, who was acquired from Pittsburgh in the Liriano deal. He is viewed as a terrific defender and game-caller, but has not played above Double-A.

First Base

Keep Encarnacion and that problem is solved. Smoak plays good defence, period. Rowdy Tellez, a left-handed slugger, had a good year at Double-A. If he sustains that success at Triple-A, he could be a dark-horse candidate later in the season.

Second Base

Devon Travis slashed .300/.332/.454 with a 2.9 wins over replacement (WAR). Assuming he recovers well from pending knee surgery, the Jays should be fine there.

Third Base

Josh Donaldson. Let us move on.

Shortstop

At 32, Troy Tulowitzki is no longer the elite hitter he once was, but he put up 24 homers and a 3.3 WAR this year, and oh, what a wonderful defender.

Outfield

Kevin Pillar is secure in centre. After that, the outfield picture is muddy. Bautista is probably gone. Saunders wants to come back, but after a strong first half (.298/.372/.551), he sagged after the break (.178/.282/.357). Ezequiel Carrera is not an everyday player and Melvin Upton had a ghastly turn (.196/.261/.318) after the Jays acquired him from San Diego. He looked like a fourth outfielder at best. Upton and Carrera, however, are the only Jays with speed, unless you count Dalton Pompey, who is still waiting in the wings. Fixing the outfield may prove to be a tall order.

Conclusion

The Jays will not fill all those holes in ideal fashion, of course, but with a few prudent additions, they remain a potential contender. The downside is that their offence fell off the map for significant periods and they barely made it into the postseason. We will soon see whether Shapiro, Atkins and Co. will press on or step back.

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Which brings us to the matter of money.

As always, there is a nettlesome backdrop to the matters that fans focus on. Club owner Rogers Communications is a public company beholden to shareholders, and at the moment, the shareholders are restive. Basic earnings per share slipped in the third quarter of 2016. Last Monday, Rogers fired CEO Guy Laurence and replaced him with former Telus CEO Joe Natale, who cannot start his new job until next summer because of his non-compete agreement with Telus. This is a company in flux.

The Jays led the American League in attendance. They made a lot of money. But they are small part of the Rogers colossus and they’re stuck in the media division, where their windfall can be used to subsidize less-successful entities.

In the third quarter this year, revenue from the Jays and Sportsnet helped offset “lower advertising revenues across radio, publishing and conventional broadcast TV,” the quarterly report said. The same thing happened last year.

Overall, revenue in the media division is up five percent over last year. The report does not break out the Blue Jays’ contribution, but it is certainly significant.

Alan Horn, Rogers’ board chairman, will run the show until Natale take over. Shapiro will soon take several budget scenarios up the ladder and make his pitch for the one that best fits his vision.

The decision must come quickly. The free-agent market opens the day after the World Series ends. Clubs have five days to negotiate with their own free agents and/or extend one-year qualifying offers.

Meanwhile, two playoff runs in a row mean the Jays’ energized and expanded fan base will expect more of the same, year after year. It is an unrealistic expectation, but it is also real.