Bharti Airtel has pegged the dues at ₹13,000 crore and does not see them topping ₹18,000 crore. This is almost half the ₹36,000 crore demanded by the government.

Similarly, Tata Teleservices said it owes a fraction of ₹14,000 crore, a fraction of what the government is demanding. Based on a self-assessment, it has paid the government ₹2,197 crore.

Vodafone Idea Ltd is yet to release its self-assessment figures. Its dues were pegged at ₹44,000 crore. It has paid ₹3,500 crore so far, and plans to pay another instalment by 17 March, which is the next date for the court hearing.

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The moot question is whether these vastly lower self-assessment figures antagonize the Supreme Court again. One factor that works in favour of the companies is that the calculation of the dues is a mammoth exercise and is likely to end up in some dispute. Besides, since they have shown the intent to pay by already depositing large amounts with the government, the court may possibly be more accommodating.

The basis on which the firms are self-assessing their dues is not known. But given the history of the dispute and the involvement of the Supreme Court, and government departments, it is unlikely that telcos will have the last word on AGR dues. “It is going to be some time before we see the end of it," said an analyst with a domestic broking firm, requesting anonymity. “Obviously, the Supreme Court and the government will have their view on this."

At best, the difference in calculation should throw up an amount that’s 10-15% lower; a 50% reduction is clearly taking things too far, said an analyst at another domestic brokerage firm, also requesting anonymity.

The reaction of Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea shares on Monday shows that investors weren’t particularly excited about the prospect of materially lower penalties, just because the companies’ self-assessment threw up lower figures. Bharti Airtel shares fell nearly 1%, and Vodafone Idea fell more than 10% on Monday.

Since the dues are threatening to bankrupt Vodafone Idea and impose a huge financial burden on Bharti Airtel, it is understandable that they are continuing to fight the levy despite the apex court’s ruling.

The question, however, is whether telcos will get such a relief. Chances are low and it can be a long-drawn process, warned an analyst at a broking firm.

A full payment of ₹35,300 crore dues can deplete Bharti Airtel’s cash levels and raise the consolidated entity’s adjusted debt-to-Ebitda from 4.1 times to 4.4 times in FY20, shows an analysis by Moody’s Investors Service. Ebitda is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization.

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