The Pittsburgh Penguins and the Washington Capitals. These two franchises have been like the separate ends of a tie, ever since a fateful season in 2005-06 when their two superstars in the making had an incredible duel for the Calder trophy as the NHL’s best rookie. They have been pulling against each other, bound against each other and with each end straining against the other, sharing the same fate; the fight to hoist the legendary Stanley Cup. The time has come for two teams to clash in a duel that may permanently alter the legacy of each of their legendary captains. Their paths are about to cross once again, in a best of 7 series with the two teams having a combined 38% chance of winning it all this season (Washington 23%, Pittsburgh 15%) according to Micah Blake McCurdy (data and corresponding graph is from hockeyviz.com, Micah’s website) as shown below.

Of course, this isn’t scripture. This is just one mathematician’s opinion. However, betting markets in the US have the Penguins and Capitals as the top 2 favourites, too. It’s widely accepted that these two are the best teams left in the playoffs. A combined 38% chance from two teams is something you would expect from a conference final; not the second round. By comparison, the other Eastern Conference second round game between Ottawa and New York wields a combined cup winning chance of just 17% (Ottawa with 8%, New York with 9%) despite one of those teams being assured of making it to the Conference finals and being one of the last 4 teams left. Such is the ability of the Penguins and Capitals that we are guaranteed to lose either the favourite or the second favourite for the cup in this series.

However, no matter what your opinion on the NHL playoff system may be, this match up was going to happen eventually, and it is a match up that has history. The aforementioned year long rookie duel in 2005-06 between Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin was a superb prequel to a story with many glittering chapters of this all-time great rivalry between two assured Hall of Famers. The trophy cabinet of these two players combined is something to behold: 3x Art Ross as leading point scorer; 8x Rocket Richard as leading goal scorer; 5x League MVP; 2 Stanley Cups; 2 Olympic Gold medals, a Calder for best rookie and 1 Conn Smythe for playoffs MVP. These two players came into the league at the same time, and their careers are forever interlinked because of it. The two faces of the NHL. The two best players for over a decade. Other players, such as Evgeni Malkin (who is in the same league as these two on his own, too) and Connor McDavid (who will be in the same league at the age of 19) provide themselves as respectable peers, but the NHL for now is still central around Sid and Alex. They are the behemoths the league needed after the 2005 lockout, and they have played their part.

But has one played his part more than the other?

The playoff accolades all belong to Crosby. The cups, the Conn Smythe and the ‘Golden Goal’ along with 2 Olympic Gold medals are all his. The higher PPG, and the unofficial tag of ‘Best in the world’ are attributed to the man from Nova Scotia, Halifax. On the contrary, Ovechkin has been the face of a Washington Capitals team that has a ‘choker’ label, and for good reason. Alexander and the Capitals has never made it past the second round of the playoffs, while Sidney and the Penguins have done this 4 times in the same time period. The Penguins made it to the Stanley Cup Final in 2008, and lost in 6 games. They went one better the next season, winning their first cup since 1992. Since that time, they have had demoralizing playoff defeats, blown 3-1 leads and fired multiple coaches; and after 7 years, made another cup final in 2016 to defeat the San Jose Sharks in 6 games. Pittsburgh experienced the highs, the lows (including a sweep in 2013 that led to them scoring TWO GOALS in 4 games) and has come back with a vengeance. They have been on a rollercoaster that has taken them to the top twice. The same cannot be said for the Capitals in the same era; they have barely made it over the first hill, and nearly always crash miserably after.

These Washington Capitals teams have won 3 President’s Trophy awards since Ovechkin has been there; a title given to the team with the best regular season record. It’s a credible achievement, but it’s never the trophy you really want. In football, this is the only title that matters. In hockey, all it means is that every team plays against you with an extra edge come playoff time. This regular season dominance has meant nothing – it’s been year after year of failures for the Capitals. Ovechkin has never been the problem; his playoff stats of 44 goals and 41 assists in 90 games are superb. The team just has a mental block, especially against the Penguins. They just cannot get over that particular bump in the road to the cup, and in 2009 and 2016, this bump was more of a mountain. The Capitals lost in 7 games and 6 games respectively, despite having home ice advantage in both series. They face the Penguins again in 2017, again in the second round and again after a stellar regular season in which the Capitals won the President’s Trophy… again.

The Capitals and the Penguins are ready. Will the demons rule Washington again? Will there be a redemption arc in this story for Ovechkin, in which he finally steps out of the shadow of Sidney and sheds the narrative that he isn’t clutch? The road to this redemption goes through Pittsburgh. The road to immortality goes through the men who have given everything for the sport that they love. They start fresh. All the previous meetings mean nothing now, and it’s time to write a new chapter. This lopsided rivalry brings us another chance to watch superb hockey. Are you ready?