As most of you know I’m a Liverpool supporter and these are just things I’ve been thinking about since we podded. About Salah vs. Mané, and other random shit. Take from it what you will.

Mané more central

It’s a small sample size but since GW28 vs. Watford when Mané had to deputize at CF he’s been much more concentrated centrally then the 27 gameweeks prior.

The underlying numbers that we usually focus on (touches in the box, shots, chances created, xG, etc) are up, as you’d expect them to be for a player on fire, but not up to the extent where it’s some eye-poppingly insane revelation. The actual “revelations” to me are the two following:

One is that just by the eye-test, the front three of Liverpool are rotating positions and free flowing a lot more then they were earlier in this season in the 4-2-3-1 and more then I can remember last season in the 4-3-3.

Last season, of the front three, Mané was usually the deepest, sort of coming central to play behind the striker(s) in a loose #10 type of position while Bob and Salah were the two “strikers” up top. Lately, since Liverpool have gone back to the 4-3-3 and Mané at CF woke up the beast, all three (and it was SUPER clear vs. Bayern) are taking up all three different positions across the front in different moments. There were times vs. Bayern where Salah was wide left tracking back, wide right tracking back, central forward, same with Bob, etc etc… This all bodes well for Mané because being more central is better for perspective goal-scoring and we’ve seen that come to fruition time and time again in this run.

The second thing that caught my eye is the aforementioned heat-map. Again, it’s a small sample size, but you can really see how much more concentrated Mané is centrally. He still will of course go wide sometimes, he will of course track back when needed, but he’s ending up in the center of the pitch a lot more often, and that’s leading to him being in the “right place, right time” a lot more often too. It’s a big big difference to receive the bulk of your passes out wide, as deep as the halfway line sometimes (as you can see on the map on the right), as opposed to receiving the majority of them at the top of the center of the box (as you can see on the map on the left).

Passes received heat-map courtesy of Fantasy Football Scout

Salah not playing for Egypt and never rests

Ok never is an exaggeration. And maybe I’m jinxing myself? But man Mo Salah is a machine. He didn’t start two matches all of last season and one match all of this season. I’m quite sure that’s Prem and UCL combined. And the majority of those are 90 minutes. He just doesn’t rest and doesn’t need it. The best players always seem to be the fittest huh?

There’s also an international break after this weekend and Salah, in a constant feud with the Egyptian FA or whatever the fuck is happening there, is not going to play for Egypt - not named in the squad.

Mané however comes off early a lot more often then Salah and this weekend against Fulham will be the third match in 7 days. Maybe Mané gets subbed around 60′ or 70′? Maybe doesn’t even start? Mané goes away with Senegal so will not be on “break” after this weekend and Liverpool should not need to be full strength to put Fulham away. There’s a shout for giving Origi a game here. A real shout.

Trent rest?

I would rest Trent Alexander-Arnold.

Listen I’m not the gaffer, I don’t know the details, I haven’t spoken with the medical team, yada yada yada… But facts are facts and Trent has been injured for the majority of the last three months. This match is an easy one, Liverpool are in a title race and the quarter-finals of the Champions League, this is not the time to fuck around. Give Camacho a game or start Milner there whatever you want. But I would rest Trent this weekend and I’m scared of that as an FPL owner.

Foot on the gas for goal differential or foot off the gas to just coast and regroup and prevent more injuries

Hard to know what Liverpool will turn up on Sunday but I reckon it’ll be the latter.

I think Liverpool and Klopp know that it will be close to impossible to catch this City team on goal differential and that getting the three points is genuinely all that matters on Sunday. I think that this could be a performance more similar to a lot of matches early in the season where Liverpool take a lead and coast to a win without piling it on.

Prime example is the home match against Fulham way back in November. Liverpool accrued an xG of 2.22 on that day, very solid, but after the second goal in the 52nd minute, they only got 0.40 xG for the last 40 minutes. We saw the same vs. Southampton back in September (these are the two that popped into my head I don’t know I’m crazy don’t ask) where Salah got a yuge change in the 47th minute and scored it and Liverpool went up 3-0. And from that point on Liverpool took only two more shots and 0.27 more xG… There are more examples, and there are plenty of counter examples I’m sure, but this to me seems like the perfect type of match for that kind of time-line – third match in a week, probably no days off after travelling back from Munich with one day of training, just get in front in the first half and coast the second half. Tighten up, possess the ball, avoid any further injuries in defense and midfield, and control the game.

I’m seeing people shouting 5-0, 6-0, or even more but to me that is not the script going into this match for Liverpool.

Salah / Mane stats vs Bayern

And just to finish it off with some numbers from the Bayern match since it’s our most recent data point:

Salah had two shots, one shot on target, and two key passes (one assist).

Mane had two shots (the two biggest xG chances of the game by a lot), both on target and both goals, and one key pass.

I hope that some of this information is useful. And I love you too.

- Alon