It’s less than a year to the 2019 Rugby World Cup and the New Zealand All Blacks have wrapped up their season. There are just six games between now and when New Zealand start their 2019 Rugby World Cup campaign in Japan against South Africa on September 21.

Having been number one in the World Rugby rankings since late 2009, it should come as no surprise that New Zealand has one of the most stable setups in the world. The World Rugby landscape has shifted majorly since the end of 2014 and the All Blacks’ final steps to the 2015 World Cup. They go into 2019 with the target on their back all the same but with perhaps a changed scenery of those nipping at their heels.

2014-2015

Unsurprisingly, New Zealand was ranked one in the world with on 93.7 points by the end of 2014. That was a lead of 5.47 points over South Africa in second place.

To achieve that, the All Blacks had won 12 games, drawn one, and lost one. The draw was with Australia in the opening round of The Rugby Championship. The All Blacks did go on to retain the Bledisloe Cup by winning the following two games, even if the third game in Brisbane finished a narrow 29-28. The solitary loss came in South Africa to the Springboks in the last round of The Rugby Championship, again a close affair finishing 25-27.

There were seven debutants in 2014 showing it was a settled squad. There had been nine debutants in 2012 and 12 in 2013, a sign that the squad planning was coming together leading into 2015.

Steve Hansen’s coaching group took over after the 2011 Rugby World Cup and except for the addition of Wayne Smith in 2015, stayed consistent throughout his tenure.

But even with all that roster experimentation of the build-up years, 2015 still saw a surprising nine debutants, compared to three in 2007 and one in 2011. From a results point of view, there was just one away loss to Australia in Sydney. More importantly were the 11 victories on the way to winning the Rugby World Cup final against Australia.

2018

New Zealand is still ranked one in the world but is slightly down at 92.54 points. The big difference, though, is that their lead over Ireland in second place is “only” 1.37. To put that in some perspective Fiji, France, and Argentina are separated by 0.90 points. So it’s still a gap but a much-reduced gap.

The results in 2018 were fairly similar to 2014 with 12 games won and just the two losses. Those were first to South Africa in Wellington 34-36, where all the stats suggested an All Blacks win but fantastic defense by the Springboks won the day. Some might also point out Beauden Barrett’s inability to kick goals that night. The second loss was to Ireland in Dublin 9-16 which was the game of the year and the first time Ireland had beaten New Zealand on home soil.

We saw 11 debutants following up on from 11 in 2016 and 13 in 2017. The extra debutants are down to injuries and taking the “first choice” 23 to Europe ahead of the Japan game. In 2014 this didn’t happen for the Tier 2 game against the USA and so it’s not quite an apples for apples comparison. (Note: Some debutants in 2017 were at non-test level against the French Barbarians.)

The coaching setup has remained stable since the 2011 Rugby World Cup. There has been the odd change such as Scott McLeod coming in to replace Wayne Smith but it’s still Steve Hansen and Ian Foster running the show.

What does that tell us looking forward to 2019 and Japan?

The first thing to acknowledge is that whilst the All Blacks are still top of the world, they are not as dominant. From 2012-2014 they lost two games whereas from 2016-2018 they have lost five. It’s still an amazing record but just not quite as dominant.

The chasing pack has also closed in. In 2014, the top five teams were separated by 12.06 points; it is now 10.14 points. So whilst the All Blacks are in a good position again, the environment has changed. Ireland has a very good chance of taking the number one World Rugby ranking during the 6 Nations for example.

The build-up for the All Blacks will be very similar to 2015 with three Rugby Championship games, a second Bledisloe Cup game, and a Tier 2 test, this time against Tonga instead of Samoa.

As usual, it has been a very meticulous preparation with games in Japan to prepare the players for the culture. With New Zealand’s record of winning the last two Rugby World Cups, they will go into this one as favorites or at the very least joint favorites.

The pressure will be on as they look to extend to a record third straight World Cup victory. That pressure was compounded by this week’s announcement that 2019 will be Steve Hansen’s last at the helm of the Kiwi ship.

Check back on Monday when we will look at the next team and where they are less than a year out from the Rugby World Cup.