1. Joe Burrow, QB LSU

Lost in the debate over whether or not Burrow would want to play in Cincinnati is just how fun it would be to watch him play in Cincinnati! A QB as accurate as Burrow throwing to Green, Boyd, and Ross? With Mixon in the backfield! If the line can be improved (and get healthy) this could be the start of something really fun.

2. Chase Young, DE Ohio State

Here’s why I don’t think they’ll trade this pick away: at the end of the day, you have to take the one player with superstar potential over getting two (three?) guys who can be good starters for your team. Because a team full of good starters doesn’t typically win the Super Bowl. You need some elite players, and those aren’t easy to find outside the top of the draft. You know what is easier to find later on? Good starters. So I think the Skins will have faith enough in themselves that they will fill out their roster later, but take the elite pass rusher when he falls into their lap.

3. Jeffrey Okudah, CB Ohio State

The Lions could trade, but here’s the thing… they are SUCH a perfect spot for Okudah, and Okudah is SO deserving of a top-3 pick, that it makes more sense to just mock that they stay put here instead of having them trade back, and risk another team jumping up to snatch him away. Let’s go conservative early, and that means just gunning to get pick 3 right, without the Trade Bonus.

via NYG 4. Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama

But even in a consensus mock, you have to predict (and hit) your trades. This is the easiest one, as the cost will be low (just a third rounder should be more than enough to move up one spot, making both teams happy) and the Player-Team fit feels almost preordained. I’m sure I’m disappointing MILLIONS of followers here by not mocking a Raiders trade up here like I did in my previous mock drafts, but like I said, I’m learning from my mistakes. Just because I think there’s a great chance LV loves Tua, and they have the ammo, and it makes sense to me… sometimes you have to go with the safer option. This is that option.

via MIA 5. Andrew Thomas, OT Georgia

Speaking of safe options, I’ve got Andrew Thomas ahead of the other OTs in this mock for exactly that reason. He’s the safest of the bunch. And when it comes to O-line play, you don’t need those splashy “throw you out of the club” plays scattered in among a few bad reps as well… you want safe. Reliable. You want known quantities. Andrew Thomas is that, has been that for a couple seasons now, and should be first off the board.

via LAC 6. Justin Herbert, QB Oregon

You know what? I’m back, everybody! Your old pal Micky the Maverick is back, because there’s a Chargers pick that is TOO perfect—TOO contrarian—that just makes too much sense for me to ignore it. Sometimes you’ve got to swing for the fences, and I’m doing it. Middle fingers up! So here’s the deal: risk vs. reward. Is there a better chance that LAC walks away from this draft with Herbert than LV? Yes, sure. But is it 2.5x as likely? To that I say no. It’s tight! But no. So I’m gunning for that Trade Bonus. I’ve been spilling a lot of ink about how Tua is a perfect fit for Gruden and his offense, but Herbert is a damn good fit as well. So let’s make this—and my future Chargers pick—happen.

7. Isaiah Simmons, OLB Clemson

And now it is time to catch our breath and enjoy another Okudah-like pairing. The team need is there, due to a superstar leaving in the offseason. The value is absolutely there. The fit is perfect, and we don’t like messing with perfect. Call it in, boys.

via ARI 8. Henry Rugs III, WR Alabama

These top-3 receivers are GOOD, and even in a deep WR class, worth trading up for. Any one of them could be first off the board, and each of them have their own special traits that make them worthy of a top-10 pick, but I’m going to go with the player-team connection here that I’ve heard rumored the most, and that’s Ruggs to Denver. He’d be a great weapon to open up space underneath, as his speed just pairs so wonderfully with Lock’s arm strength.

9. Javon Kinlaw, DT South Carolina

I had Isaiah Simmons penciled in here from the moment I sat down with this mock, trying to figure out a way to have Carolina pass on him… but in the end, I just couldn’t do it. Process of elimination brought me back to where Jacksonville often finds themselves—in the trenches. They have a lot of needs now, all over their roster, so I think they start by addressing the biggest loss from last season—culture. I believe they take one of the most dynamic personalities in the draft (and certainly the top pure 3T DT) to help bring some cohesion back to a team that feels like it is crumbling before our eyes.

10. Tristan Wirfs, OT Iowa

Here comes the parade of Tackles and Wide Receivers! I think I agree with most everyone that this is when we can expect to see many of the big names all get lumped together, so it’s important that we find the players who are good scheme fits—not just the right position on paper. This is a dream pairing. Browns coach Stefanski will live and die by the outside zone. Tristan Wirfs is the ultimate outside zone OT. His athleticism is off the charts and he is technically refined. I will be shocked if I don’t nail this pick, and considering even the best mocks usually end up nailing only 7 or so picks, there’s a lot riding on this one.

11. CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma

This is one where I have to go with what I am hearing and reading over what I believe is the right move. If I’m the Jets, I go O-line all day. Wills at Tackle, on to the next (well, third) round. But I keep hearing that the Jets are in love with Lamb, and there are enough questions about Wills’ game that I feel good about predicting that pick here, even if it’s not how I would run my team. Lamb is a fantastic prospect, so it’s not a bad pick. But I’m going with consensus over my gut here with this prediction.

via LV 12. Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama

Here we go! I’ve been waiting all mock for this, and it feels so good to be true to my reckless self! I took the most heat for this pick in my last mock (well, actually I took the most heat for my trade compensation being a bit off, which I do NOT want to be the focal point again) but I am too enamored with it to change it up. It makes too much sense! Anthony Lynn loves Tyrod, and I still believe another solid QB can be brought in for competition. But at WR, they can’t be content. Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are free agents after the season, meaning their TOP wideout currently under contract for 2021 is… Jalen Guyton? Jason Moore? That will not stand. They take Jeudy, one of the best WR prospects to come along in years, and my mock feels whole again.

13. C.J. Henderson, CB Florida

I just took you guys through a lot of crazy, so let’s slow it down a bit and just enjoy the relative tranquility of this pick. I am sure the 49ers would love for one of the big-3 WRs to slip, but they don’t. Instead they address a pretty big need with a pretty good CB, at the end of a positional tier—exactly when you are supposed to. He and Sherman will get along famously.

via TB 14. Jedrick Wills Jr., OT Alabama

What??? The Bucs allow the Dolphins to trade up here, instead of just grabbing Wills themselves? What gives? Here is a master class in bet hedging, folks! And you will not gather enough points to win a mock draft contest unless you hedge. So here’s the top of it. I feel like I don’t have to explain why Miami would do this, giving up pick 26 and a future first (they’ve got two of them) to grab Tua’s blindside protector (remember, he’s a lefty!) but why would the Bucs do it? The timeline! THIS is the Dolphins draft. This is the one where they want their next generation to all be on the same organizational schedule. But this isn’t it for the Bucs. They’ve got Brady, they can compete now, but they have to start thinking about the future. They might be in the market for a QB next year, and that means they need future draft capital if they want to be able to move up. Now they’ve got it.

via DEN 15. Derrick Brown, DT Auburn

Arizona traded back 7 spots with Denver, picking up an extra 2nd round pick in the process, and they still get the guy they wanted at pick 8. This is going to feel like a massive win for Arizona. I don’t like mocking DTs too high, because even the best ones typically go in the early teens. Last year with Q and Oliver was an exception, not the rule. I especially think a player who might be most natural at NT is a better bet to go in the early-teens than the top-10 (or even top-5) as many are mocking him. So I get my Player-Team pairing that I like (in case I’m wrong about his stock) and I still get to predict it happens later. I feel really good about this one…

16. Jeff Gladney, CB TCU

And I feel really REALLY gross about this pick. By my count, there are 15 elite prospects in the draft. And the Falcons pick 16. There have been a lot of rumors about the Falcons trading up in the first, and if I had pick 16 I’d be trying too! But I’ve got too many trades so far already, and I’m not about to throw another one into the mix. This was one of the last picks I made in this whole mock, and it came down to my giving them a player at a position of need (I think they showed by their recent OT draft that need is a major consideration for this franchise) who I am confident will be a first rounder. This wins the award for Pick That Inspires The Most Dread in this final mock draft.

17. Grant Delpit, S LSU

Dallas is another team I struggled with, because I have a lot of guys I want to send them. I was waffling between Delpit, Winfield, Ruiz, and Fulton and ended up going with Delpit because I think he has the highest ceiling, and can have the greatest impact on the team, of the bunch. I know the draft community is super low on Delpit after last season, but I can’t stop thinking about how amazing he was the year before. I think he will end up being viewed by the league somewhere in between, and so pick 17 to a team who needs him feels right.

18. Jonathan Taylor, RB Wisconsin

Speaking of the disconnect between draft Twitter and front offices, it’s never more stark than when you mock a team a first round RB. So let me explain. Jonathan Taylor will be a first rounder. I feel it in my spooky bones. But there are very few teams who I believe would be willing to spend a first rounder on a RB this season (even one as good as Taylor) and Miami is one of them. I’ll tell you, I’ve gone back and forth multiple times here, between giving them Ruiz and Taylor, but at the end of the day there were just too many natural landing spots for Ruiz, and not enough for Taylor. This offense is going to be very interesting!

19. A.J. Terrell, CB Clemson

Terrell is going to either be a Cowboy or a Raider, right? It feels inevitable that he ends up with one of those two franchises. I’m going to give him to the Raiders because I’ve at least heard that they are interested in him—it’s not 100% speculation on my part. But one thing I noticed about the Raiders and how they draft… if they have a glaring need, they address it in the first round. They have a glaring need at CB, so I fill it with possibly the best athlete at the position in this year’s class.

via JAX 20. Jordan Love, QB Utah State

If you’re going to mock a first round QB, you really should make it a trade. Something like 60% of all first round QB picks are the result of trades, and considering the Trade Bonus, it only makes sense to go all-trades, all the time. I think Love goes in the first, and even with Rivers there, I think the Colts are the most natural landing spot. In fact, I think because they brought on Rivers, that makes me feel even better about their willingness to overlook questionable decision making and being fast and loose with the ball, and instead focus on that upside.

21. Justin Jefferson, WR LSU

If Jefferson is here, he’s the pick. I feel so sure about this one, I even had to have teams who I really think would take him (ATL, LV) pass on him, because the pairing is too good. It would not surprise me at all if the big-3 WRs from this class end up being the big-4 at the end of the day, as Jefferson is really only a half-step behind the other guys. Philly could trade up to secure his rights, but here they don’t have to.

22. Kristian Fulton, CB LSU

Boy, the Vikings sure love drafting first round CBs. And boy, the Vikings sure do need a new starting CB. That’s mighty convenient, because Fulton is a solid corner who should be able to come in and compete for a starting job right away.

23. A.J. Epenesa, DE Iowa

There are a lot of directions I think the Pats could go, and there are a lot of teams I think would be really good fits for Epenesa (MIN, MIA, SEA, TEN) but at the end of the day, I’ll run with the Belichick-Ferentz connection and trust that they will continue to value production over potential.

24. Patrick Queen, ILB LSU

I have no idea who the Saints will draft. Never do. But I have ears, and my ears tell me they are on the lookout for a new off-ball linebacker. I don’t think Murray is going to go in the first round (and honestly, I’m nervous that Queen might not either, though I think he will) so I’ve really only got one option here. For a team with this solid of a roster, plugging the one remaining hole does make some sense for a Super Bowl run.

25. Antoine Winfield Jr., S Minnesota

We’re starting to get to the part of the draft where I have to figure out who my remaining first rounders are, and find the teams who I haven’t yet penciled in a player. I think Winfield goes in the first, but I don’t really feel confident about where he ends up. I do know he’s taken (virtual) meetings with NE, KC, and MIN, and considering his hometown bona fides, playing for Minnesota, and that his dad also had an illustrious career with the Vikings, I’m just going to connect dots and fill a very real team need.

via MIA 26. Mekhi Becton, OT Louisville

Oh, you thought I forgot about Becton? Nope. I just think an unusually massive OT, who is incredibly raw in pass protection, is not a top-10 pick. Again, you want stability, predictability, in your O-linemen. But at a certain point the risk is worth it, and I think the end of the round is that point for him, especially considering how dominant he is in the ground game. And if I’m wrong, and he goes earlier than this? No problem! I hedged my bet. TB could take him at 14, and I still get my Player-Team points.

via SEA 27. Ezra Cleveland, OT Boise State

A couple of teams who like their O-linemen to be athletic are the Seahawks and Packers, and they also have a rich history of trading with each other. So this is a fine trade up here, letting the Packers move up 3 spots (for a 4th round pick, which the Seahawks long for!) to get the second most athletic Tackle in the class. Cleveland has gotten a lot of recent first round buzz, and I think I believe it. So this is the spot for him.

28. Cesar Ruiz, C Michigan

I didn’t have any idea where to mock Denzel Mims, but I believe he will be a first rounder, and so I had him here. But it never felt right, especially with how good he would fit with both Seattle and Green Bay, and the fact that I had them trading with each other. So who here? And then it hit me! If I move Ruiz off the Hawks he will need a home, and he is a perfect fit for the Ravens. Their current Center injured his knee last year and is in the final year of his contract, so bringing in a potential All Pro Center to help pave the way for Lamar feels like the right move.

29. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB LSU

This is a last-minute change for me, away from Isaiah Wilson (who I’ve had penciled in for TEN for a month now) to CEH, who has that sneaky first-rounder feel to him. And I don’t think there’s a better player-team match for him than TEN. You’ve got Derrick Henry on the tag for one more year, and behind him…? David Fluellen? How about you bring in a dynamic receiving back—the driving force behind that offense, who Joe Burrow called the best athlete on the team—to partner with him for a year and take over when you decide not to pay a big, bruising RB the following year. I still think Wilson would be a great pick here to replace Conklin, but Clyde just feels right.

via GB 30. Denzel Mims, WR Baylor

I was really REALLY struggling with this Hawks pick, because if there’s one thing the Hawks do in the first round it’s… trade back. And I got that. But if there’s two things they do, it’s trade back and shock the world! The Hawks target their guys and show little regard for league-wide positional value, so taking a risk with them isn’t so risky, because I expect them to bust almost every mock. I can get a little looser, a little wild, with this pick. So I’m going to go with a WR who brings the size and speed, the willingness to block and the 94th percentile SPARQ athleticism, that they love at the position. And he will not be there for them in round 2. And if GB stays put and picks here, I think that would also be a great landing spot for Mims, so this is a better hedge for pick 30 than Isaiah Wilson would be. Russell Wilson wants weapons? He gets a good one.

31. Josh Jones, OT Houston

The end of the first round OT run will come with probably the least exciting of the bunch, Josh Jones. And he could learn from and eventually replace one of the least exciting (but all around SOLID) LTs in the league, Joe Staley, who was drafted at the end of the first round 13 years ago. Staley is 35, and the 49ers could save $12m if they cut him before the 2021 season, so grooming his replacement seems like the best way for a Super Bowl team to maintain their success.

32. K’Lavon Chaisson, OLB LSU

Chaisson is the player in this mock who I am least confident will be drafted in the first. He is basically my 32nd ranked player, and he is only up here because of his physical tools. But man, his production just doesn’t come close to matching his potential. So where do you mock a player like that? I say to KC, who has a solid enough roster, top to bottom, that taking a chance on a dynamic talent is worth it. If Chaisson busts, fine. They swung and they missed. They will still be an elite team. They can afford to take a shot like this, which other teams like Dallas and Miami just can’t do. But this late in the mock, it’s important to gather as many first rounders as possible, and I think Chaisson sneaks in.