Business Insider reader Jim Laird created this animated chart tracking Treasury yield curves compared to the actual yield on a three-month Treasury.

The yield curve is a line that plots a set of forward-looking interest rates at a given point in time. A US Treasury yield curve would connect today's yields for three-month, six-month, 12-month, two-year, five-year, one-year, and 30-year Treasury securities.

"I wrote a script that figured out the yield curve at every date from 1982 to present and compared the results to the actual yield on a three-month Treasury," Laird said. "Then I turned it into a movie. The red parts are overestimates, the blue are underestimates."

An inverted yield curve, when long-term yields are lower than short-term yields, has a long track record of occurring before recessions.

Edited by Matthew Stuart