LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM - MAY 15: Arsene Wenger Manager of Arsenal reacts during the Barclays Premier League match between Arsenal and Aston Villa at Emirates Stadium on May 15, 2016 in London, England. (Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)

Some fans love him, others find him stubborn. Here is a look at the numbers behind Wenger’s tenure at Arsenal and if he deserves two more years.

Sports are one of the most interesting aspects of our society. They are illogical and there is not a lot in life that makes us act in the same way. What makes sports great is the fact that it is unpredictable. Crazy things happen such as a team like Leicester City going from the bottom of the table to the top. It is also why despite how convincing the numbers may be, fans tend to stick to emotion when looking at their team.

Whether it be a player on your favorite team not playing as well this season as last or a new manager not living up to the billing, we are all prisoners of the moment and rarely do we look at sports objectively. I for one am just as responsible as any other Arsenal fan for blasting poor performances by both the players and coaches.

Over the past few years, Arsene Wenger has been subjected to constant criticism and it has lead me to wonder, was Wenger a great manager who has lost it, or was he just lucky to have struck gold with the Invincibles in 2004? My analysis and thought process for this question begins with a simple comparison as follows.

*numbers courtesy of Wikipedia.com

When looking at the numbers, the difference between Manager A and Manager B is insignificant. Given a choice between the two, it would likely be a toss-up slightly favoring manager B, but only slightly. I continue to compare these two managers, but instead of looking at just the win percentage and average number of goals per game, I will factor in net transfer value of the each manager’s respective team during the time period where both were managing their respective teams.

*transfer amounts courtesy of transferleague.co.uk

The table above provides a vastly different picture statistically than the first table. In this second table, the statistics show that despite losing 2.5% more of his games, Manager A has had a tighter budget and better utilized his resources to get the most out of it. Based on the numbers, we are told that the difference between placing third and second is a spending increase of £144,639 over the course of 17 seasons.

By now, most of you should have figured out who the two managers are, but in case you haven’t, Manager A is the one and only Arsene Wenger and Manager B is the great Sir Alex Ferguson. Upon understanding that, one should also realize that the red numbers under Wenger’s total transfers are when Arsenal moved to the Emirates Stadium.

As I write this piece, Wenger is rumored to be offered another contract extension. While some people scoff and burn with rage when they hear that, others welcome the sight of more Wenger. Regardless of how you feel about Arsenal’s longest serving manager, take a look at the numbers and you will see why so many in the game have such a great deal of respect towards Wenger.

I began the thought process behind this article when Arsenal lost a few games towards the end of the season and I stopped watching any of the games out of anger and frustration. I was furious that Arsene Wenger was unable to take advantage of a sub par year for United, City and the rest of the league. I was frustrated that Wenger didn’t seem like the genius he once was, and that he no longer molded players into his scheme.

Rather, it felt like Wenger forced players to play in roles they couldn’t and instead of changing the scheme accordingly, he tried to force his style on to certain players. It further frustrated me that a manager once known for modernizing the British game, in terms of style of training, couldn’t change according to the times and had a team littered with injuries. Yet after two or three weeks away from all things soccer, I realized that despite of all of that, there are huge number of players and fans that still love Wenger no matter what. To that, I was set on finding an explanation behind why fans like me should appreciate Wenger and that often times we take him for granted.

Why TOP 4?

It’s the running joke everyone uses against Arsenal, and the source of all of our pain. However, when looking at things logically and when taking emotion out of the analysis, an achievement of placing in the top four consistently is extremely important. Based on the 2015 UEFA Champions League pay-outs provided by uefa.com and the 2015 Premier League pay-outs provided by telegraph.co.uk the following table was made to sum up all the numbers.



Other than the monetary aspect of being in the top 4, we should also consider the impact it has on a player. Although it is impossible to pin the reason on why a player chooses to sign with one club rather than the other, I think it is safe to presume that the chance of playing in the Champions League has to be a factor.

The exposure a player gets while playing in the Champions League is second to none. It is because of such exposure that we all knew about Joel Campbell and that teams at one point rated him to be worth well over £10m.

From the table above, we can see that by virtue of qualifying into the Champions League group stage, a team can earn an extra £9m.

As it relates to Arsenal, the team can earn up to an extra £16m if it wins three games at the group stage and qualifies for the round of 16. That amount is enough to buy both Petr Cech and Mohamad Elneny, with £1m to spare! All of that doesn’t even include the minimum of three home games where Arsenal can earn even more in ticket, merchandise, food and beverage sales.

A different way of looking at this is to liken the Champions League to the NCAA March Madness. There are only so many spots available and any team that makes it will be guaranteed a certain level of exposure.

In turn, that no only increases revenue but it also helps market your team to the world. To that, Arsenal’s constant ability to land in the top 4 shouldn’t be a joke, instead it should be praised because since the 1999/2000 season, Manchester United has missed the Champions League two times, Liverpool has missed it seven times, and Chelsea has missed it four times.

Criticism Builds Character

If the title of this section was true then Wenger should have the most interesting, and strongest character among all mangers in the Premier League.

Fans are never satisfied. When Arsenal went undefeated over the course of an entire Premier League season, fans were upset that similar results were not replicated in the European Champions League. This is a problem all fan bases go through. Even fans of Real Madrid complain about their team’s finishing against Atletico despite winning the Champions League. High expectations are good for a team. It means the fans think the team can achieve something great.

The graph below shows the estimate team value versus the final league position of every club in the Premier League. The solid line indicates the average pattern of the value of a team for every place in England’s top flight. Teams that are right of that line are under achieving and the teams on the left are overachieving.

Of course we all know Leicester City vastly over achieved based on the value of the team, and that is clearly indicated. The value of Leicester city is on par with a team that should be placed in the teens rather than the top of the league.

However, take out the outliers and we see that a team like Arsenal is slightly underachieving. This shows that Wenger is doing the right things year by year and he is spending where necessary to try and achieve what has eluded Arsenal for 11 years and counting.

It is not fair to compare the Arsenal teams of years past with that of the current squad. It is not fair to Wenger or any of the players on the team. But it is also a disrespect of all the other teams in the Premier League.

Nowadays, everyone has a whole team of scouts around the world trying to find the next Thierry Henry and the next Patrick Viera and because of that, players with talent are more expensive.

In many ways, Wenger frustrates me but I also respect him. He understands what it is like to have to manage and build a team with no money, so even when he does have money he is careful with it. The players that do play for Wenger love him, and those who don’t, respect him.

It is easy for us to sit in front of our TV and say we would buy this player and that player, but we do not consider the financial impact, the personality of the player or the fit of such a player in the Premier League. We used to complain that Bellerin couldn’t defend yet we now love him.

So even though there are moments where I question Wenger’s tactics and his taste in players, IN WENGER WE TRUST. Remember that there must be a reason why Sanchez, Ozil, Xhaka and maybe another elite striker finally chooses to come to Arsenal. It is because there is something about Wenger that players just love. If he is good enough for Ozil he is definitely good enough for me.