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The Times Scotland’s political editor has been tweeting out results of their new YouGov polling, which shows a lead for Scottish independence of 51%. The majority in favour of independence will boost the SNP as Nicola Sturgeon prepares to set out her next steps towards another referendum tomorrow, after Boris Johnson refused her request for the powers to hold a legal referendum earlier this month.

Kieran Andrews (@KieranPAndrews) EXC: New @YouGov poll puts Yes in lead on #indyref. Margin of 51-49, first time Yes has led since 2015.



But...56% against indyref2 this year.

While the poll shows 2014 no voters and 2016 Remain voters converting to the ‘yes’ cause, interestingly there is not a majority in favour of a second referendum this year, which Sturgeon is still pushing for.

Indeed, yesterday the Scottish parliament’s pro-independence majority of SNP and Greens voted through Sturgeon’s motion in favour of a 2020 referendum.

Finally, the challenge for a future yes campaign is the same as always: the economy. According to this poll, 42% of Scots think the country would be worse off economically with independence, and 35% think it would be better off.