Expectations downtrend stopped

09 November 2014

Posted in sentix Economic News

Since August there was a strong downtrend of the economic expectations for all of the important economies. This trend is stopped now. The latest announcements by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank (ECB) let investors' 6-month-expectations rise again visibly. This is rather remarkable as it recently looked as if the ECB would have lost its power to turn economic expectations round. But also for the US – where the central bank is on a different path – the composite index improves significantly. All in all, fears of a free fall of the world econ-omy are banned for the moment. Nevertheless, it remains unclear if the current month's rise in economic expectations is just a one-off or a more important turn to the positive. The sentix data justify cautious optimism, but not more than that.

Full report November 2014

Headlines of the month

In November, the composite index for the Eurozone increases from -13.7 to -11.9 points. This is its first improvement since July. While the assessment of the current situation further deteriorates, 6-month expectations are markedly up.

The latest announcements by the Bank of Japan and the ECB have obviously had an effect. Especially the strong improvement of the 6-month expectations for Japan is pointing to that. Also, economic perspectives for Germa-ny brighten again.

Furthermore, the composite index for the US increases strongly. Here, the assessment of the current situation rises even to its highest level since August 2004! Consequently, the downward trend of the global composite index is currently stopped, too.

Euro area Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Overall Index -42.9 -41.8 -24.8 -18.2 -13.4 -8.0

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