Although we, consumers benefit from falling oil prices, Bill Emmott warns against the impact of falling oil prices on oil-rich countries ruled by autocrats and dictators. He says "this year promises to be interesting - and harrowing," predicting political turmoil in the three oil-producers - Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan - which have been ruled by autocrats since they gained independence after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Emmot notices that International Monetary Fund officials are now travelling to Baku, the capital and commercial hub of Azerbaijan, rather than to Athens. The three Central Asian autocracies are especially "hardest hit" by the falling prices, because, as former Soviet satellites, they still rely heavily on "trade with Russia," whose budget revenues come mainly from energy exports. The rouble is also under pressure from economic sanctions that the West imposed for the Kremlin's aggression in the Ukraine conflict. Keeping the lid on discontent is Putin's top priority, as ordinary people are increasingly struggling with spending cuts and rising food prices. This provides Putin an incentive to deflect attention from domestic woes, by seeking to re-establish Russia as a major power through military adventurism on the European continent and in the Middle East.

Anyone betting on the "collapse" of the Saudi monarchy may be highly disappointed. Saudi Arabia seems to be geared towards falling revenues. It is orchestrating this price drop, in an effort to weaken Iran, as its rival will be joining the export market in the post-sanctions future. Saudi Arabia is the " world’s lowest-cost oil producer." Despite "its political rigidity", it is capable of "showing economic flexibility by cutting its budget and introducing wide-ranging reforms," to avoid political discontent.

Low prices pose a major challenge to other oil-producers too. Venezuela has been in "financial crisis since long before the oil crunch." People have been suffering from food and basic goods shortages for years. The government is putting emergency measures in place, which includes tax increases. Emmott says Nigeria reminds of "Russia in 1998 - a fragile democracy facing a currency crisis." Although it is Africa's biggest oil producer, paradoxically it lacks sufficient refining capacity and has to import most of its fuel.

Would history repeat itself? The author says, it is "no coincidence" that the "last emerging-markets crisis," the 1997-1998 financial crisis in East Asia , "was also associated with a dramatic fall in oil prices." In 1998 unrest rocked Indonesia and left its leader, President Suharto, with a precarious hold on power. He resigned after more than 30 years in office.

The final demise of the Soviet Union owed much to its dwindling export revenues in the mid-1980s. In 1998 Russia's economy was in shambles. After bank defaults and the collapse of the currency, on December 31, 1999, "Boris Yeltsin resigned, leaving the country in the hands of his recently appointed prime minister, Vladimir Putin."