If Alabama and Florida State win out, they'll meet in Pasadena. Unless FSU somehow struggles with all of its weak schedule down the stretch and Baylor, Ohio State or Stanford puts together a streak of colossal blowouts, the unbeaten 'Noles will meet the Tide. And even in that unlikely scenario, FSU should be fine.

Updated bowl projections, with explanations and notes on the rest of the fallout below -- as always, let me know what you think in the comments.

Bowl Matchup (not always tied to conference standings) Team Team 1/6/2014 BCS National Championship (Pasadena) BCS 1 vs. BCS 2 Alabama Florida State 1/3/2014 Orange (Miami) Florida State replacement vs. At-large 1 Clemson Oregon 1/2/2014 Sugar (New Orleans) Alabama replacement vs. At-large 2 Auburn UCF 1/1/2014 Rose (Pasadena) Pac-12 1 vs. Big Ten 1 Ohio State Stanford 1/1/2014 Fiesta (Glendale, AZ) Big 12 1 vs. At-large 3 Baylor Fresno State 1/5/2014 GoDaddy (Mobile, AL) MAC 2 vs. Sun Belt 2 Ball State Western Kentucky 1/4/2014 BBVA Compass (B'ham) SEC 9 vs. AAC 5 Vanderbilt Rutgers 1/3/2014 Cotton (Arlington) Big 12 2 vs. SEC 3 Oklahoma State Missouri 1/1/2014 Capital One (Orlando) Big Ten 2 vs. SEC 2 Wisconsin Texas A&M 1/1/2014 Gator (Jacksonville) Big Ten 4 vs. SEC 6 Minnesota Ole Miss 1/1/2014 Heart of Dallas Big Ten 7 vs. Big 12 8 Iowa Notre Dame* 1/1/2014 Outback (Tampa) Big Ten 3 vs. SEC 4 Michigan State LSU 12/31/2013 Chick-fil-A (Atlanta) ACC 2 vs. SEC 5 Virginia Tech South Carolina 12/31/2013 Independence (Shreveport) SEC 10 vs. ACC 7 ULM* Pitt 12/31/2013 Liberty (Memphis) C-USA 1 vs. SEC 8 North Texas Tennessee 12/31/2013 Sun (El Paso) ACC 4 vs. Pac-12 4 Miami UCLA 12/30/2013 Alamo (San Antonio) Big 12 3 vs. Pac-12 2 Texas Arizona State 12/30/2013 Armed Forces (Ft. Worth) MWC 3 vs. C-USA 3/Navy San Diego State Navy 12/30/2013 Holiday (San Diego) Pac-12 3 vs. Big 12 5 USC Texas Tech 12/30/2013 Music City (Nashville) ACC 6 vs. SEC 7 Boston College Georgia 12/28/2013 Belk (Charlotte) AAC 3 vs. ACC 5 Houston Georgia Tech 12/28/2013 Buffalo Wild Wings (PHX) Big 12 4 vs. Big Ten 5 Oklahoma Nebraska 12/28/2013 Pinstripe (New York) Big 12 7 vs. AAC 4 West Virginia Cincinnati 12/28/2013 Russell Athletic (Orlando) AAC 2 vs. ACC 3 Louisville Duke 12/27/2013 Kraft (San Francisco) Pac-12 6 vs. BYU/ACC 9 Washington BYU** 12/27/2013 Military (Annapolis) ACC 8 vs. C-USA 5 Utah* East Carolina 12/27/2013 Texas (Houston) Big 12 6 vs. Big Ten 6 Kansas State Michigan 12/26/2013 Little Caesars (Detroit) MAC 1 vs. Big Ten 8 Northern Illinois Middle Tennessee* 12/26/2013 Poinsettia (San Diego) MWC 2 vs. Army Utah State Texas State* 12/24/2013 Hawaii MWC 5 vs. C-USA 2 San Jose State Rice 12/23/2013 Beef O'Brady's (St. Pete.) AAC 6 vs. C-USA 4 Arkansas State* Marshall 12/21/2013 Idaho Potato (Boise) MAC 3 vs. MWC 6 Buffalo Colorado State 12/21/2013 Las Vegas MWC 1 vs. Pac-12 5 Boise State Arizona 12/21/2013 New Mexico (Albuquerque) MWC 4 vs. Pac-12 7 UNLV Oregon State 12/21/2013 New Orleans Sun Belt 1 vs. C-USA 6 UL Lafayette Tulane

*: Filling in for another conference.

**: Already accepted bid.

Bold: In a better place than last week.

Italic: In a worse place than last week.

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BCS bowls

The first major shakeup of the season turns out nicely for the ACC. Not only is Florida State now in line for the national title game, the Orange gets two of the first three picks, since it gets to replace FSU and goes first in the at-large order. As the Orange is essentially an ACC bowl moving forward in the Playoff system, Clemson's the natural choice at 11-1 or 10-2, and a one-loss Oregon is the other.

Whether the Orange picks those first or third likely wouldn't matter, since the Sugar will prefer to keep its SEC ties. I've had Texas A&M going to the Sugar for a while now, since it'll likely be Johnny Manziel's last game (and the Sugar will need something to make up for the lack of national interest in UCF football), but now I think the Aggies lose at least to LSU and slip out of the BCS top 14, meaning they'd be ineligible.

Either Auburn or Missouri would make for a decent choice, but Mizzou fans will have just traveled to the SEC Championship Game to see their team lose to Alabama in this scenario. Auburn fans still have their whole postseason travel budgets to spend.

And with that, the BCS bowls would be set, assuming Fresno State makes it in by ranking either in the top 12 or in the top 14 and ahead of an AQ champion. Since the Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12 champions have their spots locked up, and the American champion (likely UCF) is guaranteed an at-large spot, that's that.

The rest of the Oregon impact

Since Oregon's loss likely opens up room for another ACC team (and Oregon itself is unlikely to fall out of the BCS), the Big Ten and Big 12 see their bowl pictures worsen.

Last week, I had either Wisconsin or Michigan State in the Orange, but now the whole Big Ten gets bumped down a spot or so. The Big 12 also has very little chance of getting a team in besides its conference champion.

That could also hurt Notre Dame, which looks like it's counting on one of the two Heart of Dallas spots not being filled by that game's conference ties in order to land in a game with decent exposure against a respectable opponent. If both the Big Ten and the Big 12 are able to fill that game, the Irish are really going to go slumming, since they don't have a tie to any bowl this year.

Also, the whole ACC moving up means Clemson's out of the Chick-fil-A, meaning South Carolina can go there now.

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