Now, a new scenario is emerging within some quarters of Labor about what the party might look like after March 26, in the event of the devastating defeat every poll predicts. It doesn't rule out Keneally staying on as leader in opposition if she chooses to do so. Reflecting her comment to Jones, the scenario suggests that Robertson would be happy to defer to Keneally and take a supportive role. It throws up fairly consistent views about who will be Labor's rising stars and which of the old hands, should they survive the electoral rout, will lead the charge in opposition. But it also reveals that divisions are appearing within Labor over exactly how - or even if - to go about the job of renewal and whether Keneally or Robertson are the right person to lead them through the process. According to interviews conducted by the Herald this week, Labor has divided into three main camps on the question of reform: the do-nothings, the reformers and the traditionalists.

The do-nothings say that the ashes of a crushing election defeat is not the right environment for introspection and that the first four years in opposition should be devoted to attacking the weaknesses inherent in a first-term Coalition government. Reform can come later. The reformers are pushing for a ''root and branch'' overhaul of party structures to change its culture of jobs for the boys and wheeling and dealing with the big end of town. The traditionalists argue nothing has changed; that what we are witnessing is the natural political cycle - that after 16 years Labor was always going to be tipped from government. The immediate focus should be getting it back. About the only thing not in dispute is that it has lost the public's trust. If a change of government will shift the focus of the public and the media on to the Coalition, there is at least one point at which the spotlight is sure to swing back to Labor.

The annual conference, brought forward from October to July this year so the party can regroup, is regarded by many as an opportunity for a chastened ALP to agree on reforms. By the time it rolls around - and if Labor loses - it will also be a showcase for a new opposition leader and shadow cabinet. How that cabinet is chosen - and the dreaded question of factional influence - is shaping as an early challenge. While the reforms pushed through the Labor conference of 2009 by the then premier Nathan Rees mean the leader can choose his or her own cabinet, it does not entirely remove the influence of factions from the process. Representations are made; a peaceful balance must be achieved. The widely predicted election result, whereby Labor is left with fewer than 20 seats in the Legislative Assembly, means the caucus will be halved to as few as 35 in the new Parliament. As one argument goes, once you remove the new arrivals from consideration, it makes the question of picking a shadow cabinet a whole lot simpler and takes many factional considerations out of the picture. ''It depends who is left,'' a senior Labor figure pointed out. Another said: ''The time for factions to give up the reins is when there are no favours to give out.''

There are even suggestions the size of shadow cabinet could fall from the 22 under the Coalition to as few as 10 to 13 under Labor, reflecting a vastly diminished caucus. The Attorney-General, John Hatzistergos, with four years left on his term in the upper house, is seen as an important part of that, but many believe he will soon leave to take an outside job, perhaps eventually in the judiciary. Similar rumours about a post-election leap from Parliament to the private sector dog the Treasurer, Eric Roozendaal. It is almost impossible to find someone inside Labor who believes he will see out his remaining four years. Besides, many believe the electricity sale has so tarnished his reputation that a position in shadow cabinet would be detrimental to the party's renewal message. Richard Amery, a respected Right faction leader and the only MP to have previously experienced opposition, is seen as key to providing some post-election leadership. Peter Primrose, the left-wing Ageing and Disability Minister, is often mentioned in the same manner as are Michael Daley - another possible candidate for opposition leader - and the Left's Paul Lynch, the Energy Minister, and David Borger, the Roads Minister.

The upper house MP Luke Foley - a former left-wing NSW Labor assistant secretary - and Rees will be keen to play significant roles, as will Keneally's chief of staff, Walt Secord, if he replaces the powerbroker Eddie Obeid after the poll, as planned. Calls are already emerging for the factions to ''step back'' as they were forced to after the 1988 election result, when Barrie Unsworth was defeated by Nick Greiner and a period of rebuilding took place under Bob Carr as opposition leader. The Labor strategist Bruce Hawker, who was Carr's chief of staff, says forcing the factions to lie down will require a strong leader willing to lose some fights. He says Carr's well-documented reluctance to be drafted as opposition leader helped him wrest power from the factions. ''A lot of that power came back centrally into his orbit,'' Hawker says. ''In many ways it was Bob saying, it's my way or the highway. If you don't want me, that's fine. Go and find somebody else to do it.'' Hawker shares a common view that Labor's membership is caught in a pincer movement. It is bleeding young people to the Greens and older people to the Liberals.

''If we go into opposition, I think we need to reach out well beyond the rank and file of the party [and] seriously investigate ways of making people interested in Labor again,'' he says. This may include the introduction of ''primary-style'' preselections, whereby members from the local area are invited to participate. It is an idea mooted last year by the party, which intended to trial it in at least some seats before the election. However, Labor failed to deliver even one such preselection, perhaps reflecting some hostility to the process, which some feel would ''dilute'' the value of party membership. An even more radical approach doing the rounds is removing the right of the caucus to vote for the party leader and handing it over to a vote of the broader membership. However, the idea was dismissed as ''out there'' by one Labor figure. For the time being, Labor will have to make do with a mix of its existing old heads and rising stars. Ironically, given the desire to clean up Labor's ''jobs for mates'' culture, the most commonly mentioned name in any conversation about new talent is Ryan Park, the candidate for Keira.

He is a former chief of staff to the retiring Keira MP David Campbell and deputy director-general in the department of transport. However, Park is also talked up as clever, capable and with a good understanding of how government works. Another on the rising star list is the candidate for Fairfield, Guy Zangari, a teacher who is Labor's choice to replace the retiring member, Joe Tripodi. As has been noted, Zangari is the brother of Peter Zangari, who worked for Tripodi. Prue Guillaume, who is standing in Mulgoa, is also highly regarded, although there are concerns about whether she can win the seat given the record 25 per cent swing to the Coalition in neighbouring Penrith last year. Despite Keneally's pronouncements to Jones, the question of party leadership remains vexed. The Herald was told that Keneally's claim to the leadership carried no weight because she doesn't enjoy a groundswell of support within the dominant Right faction. ''Some people have been in the party longer than she has been in the country,'' said one Labor identity, who felt Robertson, a ''bomb-thrower'' with broad support on both the Left and Right, was better suited to the task of taking on a new premier in Barry O'Farrell.

The same figure questioned the need for immediate reform and suggested the actions of a conservative government would naturally allow Labor to find its feet: ''The Libs will help us define ourselves - help us go back to what we are about''. But another believed more radical surgery was required if Labor was to see power again any time soon. ''To come back within a generation, NSW Labor's going to have to be a very different beast to what it has become,'' he says. ''The only good thing about a crushing defeat is that what comes next has to be different because it leaves so few survivors.''