President’s announcement could set the direction of the court for decades and light the fuse of an acrimonious political battle

Donald Trump is set to make one of the most consequential decisions of his presidency on Monday when he names a new justice to sit on the US supreme court.

The president’s announcement, which with his usual taste for suspense is to be televised live at 9pm from the east room of the White House, could set the direction of the court for decades and light the fuse of an acrimonious political battle.

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The nominee’s record will come under particular scrutiny for clues as to how he or she might vote in any future review of Roe v Wade, the landmark 1973 decision that guaranteed women’s right to abortion.

Trump’s pick comes less than two weeks after Justice Anthony Kennedy, often the “swing vote” in the court’s rulings, announced his retirement, and 18 months after the president won plaudits from conservatives for appointing Neil Gorsuch to the court. This followed a fiercely criticised but ultimately successful strategy by Senate Republicans to block Barack Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland, in 2016.

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Trump has moved quickly to prevent Democrats attempting a similar maneuver before November’s midterm elections. Last week the president conducted interviews on Monday and Tuesday, whittling down a list of 25 figures vetted by conservative groups. On Thursday, traveling on Air Force One, he told reporters: “I think I have it down to four people. And I think of the four people I have it down to three or two.”

On Friday, in his weekly address, Trump made clear he was looking for a justice who adopts an “originalist” interpretation of the constitution. “Judges are not supposed to rewrite the law, reinvent the constitution, or substitute their own opinions for the will of the people expressed through their laws,” he said.

And on Monday, the former reality TV celebrity sought to build the drama further by tweeting: “I have long heard that the most important decision a U.S. President can make is the selection of a Supreme Court Justice - Will be announced tonight at 9:00 P.M.”

The shortlist reportedly consists of the federal appeals court judges Amy Coney Barrett, Thomas Hardiman, Brett Kavanaugh and Raymond Kethledge. Trump was leaning towards Hardiman and Kavanaugh and has now made a final decision, the New York Times said, citing advisers familiar with the discussions.

Notably, Mike Pence, the vice-president who frequently describes himself as “a Christian, a conservative and a Republican, in that order”, is understood to have met the leading contenders and had lunch with Trump on Monday. The White House counsel Donald McGahn, Fox News host Sean Hannity and Trump’s sister Judge Maryanne Trump Barry are also believed to have weighed in with their views.

Any one of the shortlisted judges is young enough to potentially sit on the nine-person court for decades and could tip it to the right and revisit landmark rulings on abortion access, racial discrimination, gay rights, voting rights and other issues.

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Kirsten Gillibrand, a Democratic senator for New York, tweeted: “You can bet that anyone on @realDonaldTrump’s list of potential SCOTUS nominees would overturn Roe v Wade. Our hard-fought rights could evaporate in a moment. That’s a massive step backward for women’s equality that I will not stand for. Not in 2018. Not ever.”

Sarah Weddington, who as a 26-year-old lawyer successfully represented “Jane Roe” in the Roe v Wade case, expressed no preference for anyone on Trump’s shortlist. “None of the above,” she said by phone from Austin, Texas. “I don’t think Trump would be picking someone if they weren’t very much opposed to Roe v Wade. I can see lots of reasons why Trump might pick one person or another but none that would be beneficial to Roe v Wade.”



Trump’s relatively recent anti-abortion stance was all about where he thought the votes were rather than principle, she added. “I think that what it’s going to do is create a real backlash by women across the country before the midterm elections. There will be more women who vote in key races in various states.”

But others suggest that predictions of doom for Roe v Wade are exaggerated. Curt Levey, president of the rightwing advocacy group the Committee for Justice, said: “I don’t see [chief justice] John Roberts overturning it. I think conservative justices are also conservative in the small ‘c’ sense. They just don’t see the courts’ role as being radical change.

“Will they slowly eat away at Roe so at future date it might be overturned? Possibly. But right now I just don’t see it.”

One day after the high-stakes announcement, Trump will head to Europe for a Nato summit, a visit to Britain and a meeting with Vladimir Putin, sure to leave a bitter political brawl in his wake. The White House announced on Monday that the former senator Jon Kyl of Arizona would serve as “sherpa”, guiding the nominee through the Senate confirmation process.

But with the Senate on a knife-edge, split 51-49 in favour of Republicans over Democrats, the process is expected to be drawn out and ugly. Activist groups on both sides are waging a multimillion-dollar advertising war urging citizens to pile pressure through phone calls, emails and protests.



Liberals are focused on the Republican senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who have previously defended reproductive rights. Collins has said she would not back someone who has demonstrated hostility to Roe v Wade.

Ilyse Hogue, president of Naral Pro-Choice America, told reporters that senators “need to be examining their conscience and their moral maps and stand with us. And if they don’t, they need to examine their political futures.”

Some activists are calling for Democrats to adopt a scorched-earth policy and block confirmation at all costs. But 62% of Americans want a new justice in place before the November midterms, according to an NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll.

Levey said: “The Democrats have very little chance of stopping the nominee where they are. They have to put on a show for their base but I suspect, when it’s over, we’ll be surprised that it was not a fight to the death, just a fight to clawing each other’s eyes out.”



Meanwhile, conservatives are poised to target three Democrats seeking re-election in November in states that Trump won overwhelmingly in 2016: Indiana’s Joe Donnelly, West Virginia’s Joe Manchin and North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp, all of whom attended a recent White House meeting with the president.



Then, like much else in the Trump era, there is always the potential for a last-minute surprise. Edward Fallone, an associate law professor at the Marquette University Law School in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, said: “The wild card here is if something comes up about a potential nominee and their past life and career that escaped attention when they were confirmed for their last court position.”

Citing the infamous example of Justice Clarence Thomas, who faced allegations of sexual harassment during his 1991 confirmation hearing, Fallone added: “You never know. You could get an individual coming forward like a modern-day Anita Hill.”