Here's who is leading the race to replace Rep. John Conyers

Todd Spangler | Detroit Free Press

Editor's note: A previous version of this story included a photo of the wrong candidate for this race. The photo has been replaced and the story has been updated. The story was also updated to note that the poll was automated.

WASHINGTON – With a week to go until the Aug. 7 primary, the race to replace former U.S. Rep. John Conyers, D-Detroit, appears to have come down to three candidates — Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones, former state Rep. Rashida Tlaib and Westland Mayor Bill Wild.

An automated poll conducted last week by EPIC-MRA of Lansing for the Free Press showed those three candidates separated by no more than 7 percentage points and accounting for about two-thirds of all those surveyed, making it too close to call at this point. Nineteen percent remained undecided.

Conyers stepped down in December, ending a congressional career dating to 1965, after being accused of mistreating and harassing female staffers over the years. Conyers denied the allegations.

With his seat open, more than a dozen candidates looked at or announced runs — including the congressman’s son, John Conyers III, who did not make the Democratic ballot and has had his request to be listed as an independent candidate denied. In the predominantly Democratic district, which includes parts of Detroit, Downriver and western Wayne County, that party’s primary is almost certain to decide the winner.

The EPIC-MRA poll, which used automated calls to contact 700 active and likely voters or those who have already cast absentee ballots in the district, last Wednesday and Thursday showed Jones leading with 24 percent, followed by Tlaib with 21 percent. Wild trailed those two with 17 percent.

The survey — which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points — showed state Sen. Coleman A. Young II next with 9 percent; state Sen. Ian Conyers, the former congressman’s grand-nephew, with 6 percent; and former state Rep. Shanelle Jackson with 4 percent.

Asking undecided voters a second time to choose changed the outcome slightly, with Jones moving to 26 percent support, Tlaib at 22 percent and Wild at 20 percent. The others were all in single digits and 11 percent still declined to select a candidate.

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The poll is simply a snapshot of the race at a particular point in time and does not necessarily predict an outcome. Polls — especially polls for primary elections, where turnout can be far less than in general elections — can vary widely from actual results and automated polls do not call cell phones and sometimes suffer from low response rates. EPIC-MRA, however, did use numbers for known primary voters and included households with younger voters in an attempt to ensure they were represented.

Meanwhile, the results showed a marked split along racial and geographic lines in the Detroit-based district.

In making the calls, EPIC-MRA contacted 402 Detroiters and 298 voters who live outside the city in the district and found that — including the choices of voters who initially said they were undecided — Jones had support of 37 percent inside Detroit, compared with 19 percent for Tlaib and 12 percent for Young, with Conyers at 9 percent, Jackson at 6 percent and Wild at 4 percent. Twelve percent were undecided.

But outside Detroit, Wild — the only non-Detroiter in the race — enjoyed the support of 40 percent of respondents, compared with 26 percent for Tlaib and 12 percent for Jones. The others were in single digits, with 10 percent undecided.

Since the sample sizes for both are smaller than the overall sample size, the margin of error would be larger as well. But it does show a clear split between Jones' and Wild’s support in and outside of Detroit in a district long linked to the city.

There was a similar split among racial lines: Among African-American respondents, 359 of the 700 polled, Jones had 39 percent of the support, with Young (15 percent), Tlaib (12 percent) and Conyers (10 percent) trailing her. (Wild had 6 percent support among black voters; Jackson, 4 percent. Thirteen percent remained undecided.)

But among white voters — 255 of the 700 surveyed — Wild had 37 percent support and Tlaib 36 percent, followed by Jones (10 percent), Jackson (6 percent), Conyers (3 percent) and Young (2 percent). Seven percent remained undecided. (Eighty-five respondents listed themselves as some other or mixed race: Wild, Jones and Tlaib each had 20 to 25 percent of that support, with the others well behind.)

The overall findings track with what little other independent polling has been done in the race. In mid-July, a poll done by Target Insyght showed Jones, Wild and Tlaib each with about 20 percent of the vote and 14 percent of those surveyed undecided. For that poll, 600 active and likely voters were contacted. It also had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Contact Todd Spangler: 703-854-8947 or tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter at @tsspangler.

