Plekanec’s undervalued; Pacioretty/Desharnais’ marriage; Placing Parenteau; Predictions.

Does Plekanec need to score 30 goals to be recognized as Montreal’s top centre? Accompanying the logjam at centre is a lot of talk about the inability to move Desharnais due to his very real and obviously important “chemistry” with Pacioretty. Added to the list of important players that begin with ‘P’, Parenteau will be key this season; where does he fit?

Number 14

I’m willing to accept that fans evaluate talent differently; I can even deal with the fact that fans simply like a player more, so by default they think he’s better than others. What I can’t deal with is inexcusable bashing, no matter how minor, of players based on very little or crazy delusions of what they believe a player should bring to the table.

As Galchenyuk inches closer to becoming the No.1 centre we all suspect he will be, the distaste for Plekanec has inexplicably been more prominent. Before I go any further, the Canadiens’ No.1 centre is Plekanec – it isn’t Desharnais.

It’s a bit of a unique situation in Montreal in that their best offensive centre isn’t actually their best all-around centre as in most cases. If you take a look around the NHL at each team’s best offensive centre (or offensive line in general), you’ll more often than not notice they also command tough competition because they’re typically more than reliable on the defensive end as well. That isn’t the case with David Desharnais; of the 118 players who managed to skate 1000+ 5v5 minutes last season, only 18 players dealt, on average, with opponents with worse shot percentages. Desharnais’ competition registered 49.9% of the shot attempts throughout the year (Iginla rounded out the list with opponents registering 49.5% of the shot attempts).

Refer to the following (click to enlarge):

Here’s a simple way to look at this:

– The bottom right quadrant is reserved for players in a pure exploitation role. These players require a lot of offensive zone time against less than spectacular players, to put it lightly. They aren’t the most reliable on the defensive end of the puck (again, sugar coating it).

– The top right quadrant is for offensively gifted players. These players are typically dynamos in the OZone but can handle minutes against tougher competition.

– The bottom left quadrant is dedicated to grinding, defensive type players. These players are by no means superstars on the offensive side of the puck but can reliably play in their own end against middling players.

– The top left quadrant is reserved for the most reliable and responsible players overall on both sides of the puck. These players typically receive the toughest minutes; they’re utilized in the defensive end against the opposition’s best but still expected to contribute offensively.

Exclude Vanek in the top right – he hardly played enough for the Canadiens during the season, ergo the crazy placement. The size of the bubble is indicative of that player’s Corsi relative to the rest of the team (the bigger, the better). Red means negative Corsi rating while Blue means positive Corsi rating. Moreover, you should see blue bubbles to the right of the green line and red bubbles to the left. If you’re a red bubble to the right – there’s a problem, Thomas Vanek. If you’re a blue bubble to the left – well done, Lars Eller.

Based on that graph, it’s more than fair to say Desharnais receives the easiest minutes on the Canadiens among centres. I imagine you knew that already. What you may not have known is he pretty much receives the simplest minutes among all Montreal regulars; even easier than what the 20-year old Galchenyuk skates. That isn’t exactly normal.

Then you have Plekanec; the toughest matchups and relied upon the most in the defensive end. Heavy minutes every game. He led all players for the 4th straight season in TOI/g, and has paced the Habs in 4 of the last 5 seasons in SH TOI/g. Of the 118 forwards that played 1000 minutes last season, only Higgins, Cooke and Brodziak began a higher percentage of shifts in the defensive zone. I don’t blame Therrien, because he doesn’t have another centre that can take the load off of Plekanec so he can thrive offensively. It’s a shame, really, because Plekanec is really creative when given the opportunity and has a nice shot – okay, maybe he has a superb shot. He runs the show. He’s as close to a complete player as the Habs have. When he does things like this, shorthanded, with the game tied 0-0 in the 3rd, and then smiles after, how can you not love him?

Considering his deployment and usage, Plekanec was the third highest scoring forward on the Habs last season. He was one of two players to hit the 20-goal mark. He outscored every other centre two seasons ago and finished as the team’s second highest scoring forward. 7 of the last 8 seasons saw Plekanec as a top 5 point-getter on the Habs.

There are players that can replace Plekanec and his role, but none of those players are on the Montreal Canadiens.

I now pronounce you…

Two different hockey players. The notion that Pacioretty and Desharnais are inseparable is irritating. They don’t “work” because of the history they have together. They don’t succeed because they need one another. I’m willing to admit this may have something extremely small to do with it. To be honest, they work because Pacioretty is unreal. Pacioretty and Therrien have joined forces to make Desharnais what he is today (which isn’t much); a 50-point centre in the NHL.

Number 51 would be much more effective if he was capable of playing in a wider variety of situations. Unfortunately, he’s pretty much limited to an exploitation role of which produces meager results.

(Click to enlarge)

Since TOI is the major issue when it comes to WOWYs involving Pacioretty and other centres, I simply used the duo’s best season together while using essentially Pacioretty’s entire career with Plekanec. I tossed in Eller for kicks but factored him out when highlighting the better figures.

Besides a slight edge in GF/20 of TOI together, Desharnais/Pacioretty duo is inferior to Plekanec/Pacioretty. Note that massive number in the shot attempts against per 20 minutes column (CA/20) – an absolutely enormous difference. That’s the effect a solid, two-way centre has.

On the flip side, Desharnais seemed to produce away from Pacioretty that season (in very limited minutes) while not being able to muster much in the way of scoring opportunities. Plekanec maintained a rather impressive GF% away from number 67 given the revolving door of wingers and brutally difficult icetime he’s been given. The most important value is that CF% column; Desharnais was beyond useless without Pacioretty that season.

Throughout the past 4 seasons without Pacioretty, that number climbs to 47.9%, however that’s still less than satisfying considering his deployment has been consistent throughout the years. Glance back at the graph near the beginning: see where Galchenyuk is? Now, stay with me for a moment, but what if the Habs were able to ship out Desharnais for…anything, really, and slot Galchenyuk in to replace him? I’ve pondered this for quite some time. It would be extra special if the return included perhaps a top 9 LW to take the newly vacated spot left by Galchenyuk’s promotion. The argument is both Galchenyuk isn’t ready to play these butter-soft minutes Desharnais leaves behind, and of course that Pacioretty will slow down due to his partner in crime’s departure. That really and truly isn’t the case. There would be crying, yes; tears would be shed. But Pacioretty would pick up right where he left off flanking the centre whom isn’t yet legal in the U.S. If he can do it alongside Plekanec in a more defensive role, he can do it with a more dynamic offensive player in an exploitation role.

Where’s Parenteau? (get it…like Where’s Waldo?)

P.A. Parenteau is an interesting player in a good way. Last season for the Avalanche he played with a variety of linemates during 5v5. He played over 200 minutes with 4 different forwards. He saw 190 minutes with McGinn and 179 minutes with MacKinnon. 179+ minutes with 6 different Avalanche forwards. That bodes well for a Canadiens team where he can quite literally fit and be effective anywhere in the top 9.

(Click to enlarge)

As you can see, he was in a Pacioretty/Gallagher-type situation with the Avalanche; pretty solid competition but was more so out there to produce offense given the OZst% he enjoyed. This is excellent for a few reasons:

– If Therrien wants to attempt a reunion of the Kid Line, Parenteau would fit nicely with Pacioretty and Desharnais.

– If Therrien wants to use him in more of a two-way role, Plekanec’s right side will gladly welcome him.

Pierre-Alexander was a good play-driver in Colorado’s world – he carried a 49.9% FF% throughout the season, good for 2nd among Avs forwards who played at least 1000 minutes. In close game situations, Parenteau finished the season at 49.1% which ranked him 3rd.

Frankly, I would bank on Sekac making the squad (and being a fabulously effective two-way forward) and shift Parenteau on to a line with Eller and Galchenyuk/Bourque. I’m a huge fan of leaving the Pacioretty-Desharnais-Gallagher trio intact, and I’d like to see Bourque with Plekanec and Sekac because 14 will surely be put in tough minutes once again and Bourque is a better option there then Galchenyuk. Picture that 3rd line for a minute – Galchenyuk-Eller-Parenteau. The reason I like it is twofold:

– Eller just re-signed and everyone dismissed it as a bad decision. Give him two solid wingers to prove what he can really do.

– Eller’s line is going to be a nice mix. It won’t be ridiculously tough like Plekanec’s minutes, but it won’t be insanely easy like Desharnais’.

This will put P.A. in a no-pressure situation to get comfortable with the system and team. No stress defensively, no immediate stick-gripping to score.

Just, do your thing – show us what you got. He’s also been added to the list of important “P” names: Pacioretty, Plekanec, Price, P.K. and Parenteau. Congratulations. It means nothing to anyone but me.

Fasten your seat-belts

Here’s a few Canadiens 2014-2015 predictions for you all to argue about and/or hate me for:

Pacioretty will not not lead the team in goal scoring.

Subban will not be lower than 1 st in team scoring.

in team scoring. Plekanec will outscore Desharnais.

Eller will score 28 minus 13 goals.

Galchenyuk won’t score any more or less than 20 goals.

Gilbert will be 3 rd in scoring among Habs defensemen (and prove to be a genius acquisition).

will be 3 in scoring among Habs defensemen (and prove to be a genius acquisition). Price will lead the Canadiens in SO (and the NHL).

Malhotra will out-faceoff the entire league.

will out-faceoff the entire league. Prust will hurt his shoulder again.

will hurt his shoulder again. Sekac will reveal the insult he heard most throughout school about his name.