The almighty presidential swing state has legislative intrigue

We’ve now passed the filing deadline in Florida for the state legislative races, which means it’s time to look at the Florida Senate. Entering these elections, Republicans hold a 24-16 edge in the State Senate. 20 seats are up on regularity this fall, plus a pair of Special Elections, giving Democrats opportunities, since 16 of the 22 seats that are up are held by Republicans. The magic number for the Democrats to re-take control is 4, assuming that they win the Governorship this fall. So here’s the ratings chart:

Florida Senate Ratings

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R 40 (D) 8 (R) 20 (R) 23 (R) 16 (R) 24 (R) 25 (R) 18 (R) 22 (R) 36 (R)

Likely D: 40

40th District: Annette Taddeo

This is a SoFlo seat that had been much redder downballot, despite being very blue (D+8) at the presidential level, as is the case for a number of seats in the area. Republican Frank Artiles was forced to resign in early 2017 after he used racial slurs against fellow legislators, creating a special election last fall that Democrat Annette Taddeo won. She is running for a full term and we consider her to be a considerable favorite to do it, but you can never be quite sure with the fickle ticket-splitting dynamics of this region. Her opponent is late filer Marili Cancilo, the daughter of a former State Rep., so she should have some name recognition. Color me skeptical that she can beat Taddeo, but it’s worth keeping an eye out for.

Tossup: 8, 16, 18, 22, 36

8th District: Keith Perry

SD-8 is located in north-central Florida, including Gainesville, and is one of the best Democratic pickup opportunities. Republican Keith Perry won this seat as an open one in 2016 by a narrow 53-47 margin. Trump won the seat by less than 0.5%, giving it an R+1 PVI and making it very interesting. He’s drawn a good opponent in Kayser Enneking, a University of Florida doctor who already has $280,000 in the bank, giving her the resources to battle with Perry. I think Dems are slight favorites here but this will be a real battle and a must-win if Democrats want control of the chamber.

16th District: Open (Latvala)

Located in Clearwater, SD-16 could be the bellwether for control in the Florida Senate. Left open because Incumbent Jack Latvala got caught up in a #MeToo scandal late last year, Florida Dems are making a strong push for this Trump +13 seat. Republicans are running well funded State Rep. Ed Hooper, while Democrats have former State Rep. Amanda Murphy, who is a great get. She is used to winning red turf in the State House and that article I linked mentions a poll that has her leading Hooper, a good sign for Dem prospects of winning here. She’s a more centrist Dem which is a good fit here, and as the article notes, Charlie Crist won this district over Rick Scott in 2014’s gubernatorial race, and it was a small Romney win in 2012, so Democrats have a very good opportunity here. Another recent poll has Hooper up 2 over Murphy, so it is a very close race at this moment. If Democrats are flipping SD-16, they’re probably winning the State Senate.

18th District: Dana Young

This seat is found in western Tampa and is the best Democratic pickup opportunity. It has a D+2 PVI and Clinton won it by 5 in 2016. Dana Young was able to win in 2016 because of a left wing spoiler in a fractured 49-41-9 field. This time around she faces Janet Cruz Rifkin, the State House Democratic Leader, a top tier opponent. There’s already a poll out showing Cruz leading, which is a good sign for Dems. This seat tilts towards the Democrats slightly and another one that Dems need to be winning to flip the State Senate.

22nd District: Kelli Stargell

Another key potential bellwether district is this seat in Polk/Lake Counties in central Florida. Incumbent Kelli Stargell won in 2016 by a narrow 7 point margin in this R+4 district, making her a good target for Democrats in 2018. They have recruited former State Rep. Ricardo Rangel, who is a pretty good get for the party. He’s new into the race, so he trails Stargell in the cash department by quite a bit. However, that’s okay, since she outspent her 2016 opponent about 20 to 1, yet still basically just performed as a generic GOPer, winning the district nearly identically to Trump. She’s going to outspend you, but that’s fine. Rangel has a real shot here.

36th District: Open (Garcia)

Welcome to the ultimate battle of down-ballot vs up-ballot dynamics. Various election results over the past year have suggested to us that Democrats are starting to break the Cuban Florida ticket splitting, with Dems doing a lot better down-ballot in Miami-Dade than they used to. This race will be the ultimate test of that. It’s an open Clinton +14 district, which in theory should make it an easy pickup, but this is the type of ancestrally red district that Florida Republicans have banked on forever to ensure their state legislative majorities. They have Manny Diaz Jr in the race., a well funded State Rep. who will be no pushover. The district he represents in the State House is about as blue as this one but despite his name recognition and money, he only survived 2016 by about 5 points, showing that his appeal isn’t as strong as it once was. Democrats missed on their top recruiting target, but settled on firefighter/union dude David Perez. I have no idea how this race will turn out but it’s definitely one to watch.

Lean R: 20

20th District: Tom Lee

This race had a big surprise when Tom Lee, who everyone thought was running for CFO, decided to run for re-election. He’s a strong incumbent who was unopposed in 2016, but he’s only in a Trump +8 district, so he’s in no way invincible. Democrats have Kathy Lynn Lewis, a writer, and Joy Ellen Gibson, an activist, in the race, and I don’t get the sense this is a great pickup opportunity, but it is one that could be carried in a wave. So keep an eye on it, but this outer Tampa based seat is not one of the key battlegrounds with Lee seeking re-election.

24th District: Jeff Brandes

After holding onto the St. Pete Mayoral office in an upset last fall, Democrats in the area are emboldened in their efforts to knock off State Senator Jeff Brandes in 2018. This will be a trickier thing to do, as SD-24 is whiter and more GOP-leaning than St. Pete as a city, and Brandes ran unopposed in 2016, showing his strength. Still, Democrats are enthused and they like their nominee, Carrie Lambeth Pilon, a trial lawyer who jumped into the race in April. She will need to make up a significant fundraising gap, but we have a poll showing Brandes up by just 5 (46-41) over Pilon. This suggests this race could end up in the tossup column, but I’m not ready to put it there yet.

Likely R: 23, 25

23rd District: Open (Steube)

This is the first of a pair of seats that are in the presidential year cycle of seats, but is up because of a special election. SD-23 consists entirely of Sarasota, as well as part of western Charlotte County. Dems are trying to build on their victory in Sarasota in a special election earlier in the year, but this is an R+8 seat, so it will be an uphill climb. Democratic activist Faith Olivia Babis is the Democratic candidate in the race, with State Rep. Joe Gruters on the GOP side, so Team Red definitely has an edge, but it’s worth watching.

25th District: Open (Negron)

Our second special election seat, SD-25 is on the other side of the state, consisting wholly of St. Lucie and Martin Counties, as well as part of northern Palm Beach County. It’s also an R+8 seat (Trump +12), but it’s a shade bluer than SD-23, making it a marginally better pickup opportunity. Once again, the GOP has a State Rep. in the race, Gayle Harrell, while Democrats have physician Robert Levy. It’s another fringe potential flip seat, but one that Republicans are still considerable favorites in.

The Path to a Democratic Majority

Democrats enter the fall elections down 24-16 in the chamber. For this piece, as we’ve done in other states, we’re assuming that Democrats flip the governorship, since that seems like a prerequisite for a good Dem night in the state legislative chamber. Assuming that, Democrats would need to gain 4 seats. The most likely flips are 18 and 8, which halves the number Dems need. From there, it consists of netting 2 more out of the 3 seats that are all kind of clear tossups, 16, 22, and 36. Beyond that, flipping SD-24 is an option, but we need to see more from it. A not impossible path, but Republicans are still probably favorites to hang on chamber wide.

Bottom Line

As I mention above, the GOP are favored to hang onto the majority in the Florida Senate, but it is very much in doubt, and a good night for Dems nationally and in Florida could easily sweep Team Blue into a majority in this chamber for the first time in decades. So, I’m calling the chamber a tossup overall.

Chamber Rating: Tossup

Estimate if election were held today: D+1 to D+5