Jeb Bush got serious, Marco Rubio railed on a topic close to home and Rand Paul took yet another contrarian view.

Officially, the Republican 2016 presidential field is a ways from being settled. Unofficially, this certainly felt like the week that the GOP primary was joined.


It started with Bush’s unexpected announcement that he’s “seriously considering” trying to become the third family member to win the presidency, and ended with Rubio and Paul trading shots over President Barack Obama’s new Cuba policy. Any expectation of a tranquil, holiday-season conclusion to a year of partisan battle in the midterms was unambiguously dashed.

“Jeb Bush’s announcement was a thunderclap that startled everyone and jump-started the Republican primaries,” said Mark McKinnon, a onetime adviser to Bush’s brother, George W. Bush.

McKinnon and other Republican strategists said Bush’s move not only sent a signal to anxious donors that the former Florida governor means business, but it also accelerates the primary process.

“The race to lock up money and talent will now be fast and furious,” McKinnon said. “If you intend to be a serious candidate, you can’t afford to wait very long to make your intentions clear. Most likely the serious players will announce their intentions some time in the first quarter of next year.”

Aside from his announcement on Facebook and plans to establish a leadership PAC early next year, Bush took other steps that signal his seriousness, including resigning from his position as a paid adviser at Barclays and not booking additional paid speeches.

“Up until a few weeks ago, most people thought, at best, it was 50-50 that Jeb would run,” said Fred Malek, a Republican fundraiser. “Now it appears highly likely he will run.”

The Obama administration’s decision this week to begin normalizing relations with Cuba also pushed the likely 2016 contenders to take a stand on a hot-button foreign policy issue.

Rubio came out swinging, perhaps to get ahead of his fellow Floridian, Bush, while Paul waited to offer his against-the-grain view. The timing and force of their reactions, coming on the heels of Bush’s announcement, increased the sense of outward competition among the hopefuls: it was as if the run-up to the 2016 campaign had entered a more urgent, high-stakes phase.

Bush said the president’s move “undermines America’s credibility and undermines the quest for a free and democratic Cuba.” Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), the son of a Cuban immigrant, suggested it amounted to appeasement.

But Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), the son of Cuban immigrants, was the most vocal critics of the policy shift, blasting it as “based on an illusion, based on a lie.”

“Rubio’s strong, clear, vocal opposition to the president’s actions helped him, made him look very presidential,” said Ryan Williams, a Republican operative who served as a spokesman for 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

But just when it seemed that Republicans were in sync against normalizing relations with the Communist led-country, along came Paul. The Kentucky senator turned heads by aligning with Obama in supporting opening up ties to Cuba. The embargo against Cuba “just hasn’t worked,” Paul said, and forging new ties to the country is “probably a good idea.”

“Like many people who have been opining, he has no idea what he’s talking about,” Rubio shot back Thursday on Fox News, referring to Paul.

The spat continued on Friday, when Paul accused Rubio on Twitter of “acting like an isolationist” — the same jab that’s often directed at libertarian-leaning Paul. “Senator Marco Rubio believes the embargo against Cuba has been ineffective, yet he wants to continue perpetuating failed policies,” Paul added in a Facebook message. “After 50 years of conflict, why not try a new approach?”

Paul continued later with an op-ed at Time.com. He explained his view on Cuba and seemed to refer again to Rubio when he called for “cooler heads” to prevail and argued that “emotions understandably run high for those whose parents and grandparents had their land and their lives taken from them.”

By week’s end, it was clear Cuba was the latest foreign policy wedge between Paul and other likely 2016 Republican hopefuls. And after Bush’s move, that and other disagreements may intensify sooner than later.

Dave Carney, another longtime GOP operative who worked on Rick Perry’s 2012 presidential campaign, said the 2016 race, at least on the GOP side, is essentially on.

Bush has “given everyone else a kick in the a— to get going on it, particularly on [engaging] donors and political folks around the country,” Carney said. “It’s going to make everyone else’s Christmas holiday week a lot more [about] working and less about re-energizing.”