So the picture is far more complicated than many think. Fewer Ukip voters than many think are actually up for grabs. And even if the most uncertain did switch back to the main parties this would still not allow Cameron to power ahead. If (and it is a big if) the Conservatives tempted back both certain and less certain Kippers in key marginal seats then it could be enough to boost their seat share even if they do not win the national vote – but even then nothing is certain and this outcome seems unlikely. And with only two weeks to go this is an incredibly difficult – or some might say impossible – thing to do. Meanwhile – and this is a more important point looking ahead in British politics – a large number of Kippers simply do not see David Cameron's Conservatives as their ideal second home. This may well change with Cameron gone, of course, but right now it remains a serious obstacle to the Conservatives winning them back.