Summary

Sunday evening showers dropped 4-8 inches on the central and northern mountains, so there will be fresh snow to ski on Monday morning. Then we’ll look for two rounds of intense snow. The first round will be 6-12+ inches from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. The second round will be 6-15+ inches from Tuesday night through Wednesday midday. Both Tuesday and Wednesday morning should offer deep and surfy powder for most mountains, with Wednesday morning being my slight favorite of the two days due to cooler temperatures and steadier snowfall. We will dry out during the end of the week and through the weekend, with another storm possible between May 7-10.

Short Term Forecast

Season Wrap-Up

I wrote my season wrap-up post on Wednesday, April 24. To see my favorite pictures and snowpack maps, click over to that post: https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/colorado/post/15303

Monday Morning

Based on the HRRR model (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh), we were expecting 4-8 inches of snow to fall in the central and northern mountains on Sunday evening. Score one for the HRRR! Below are the snow reports on Monday morning, with all of this snow falling after lifts closed on Sunday afternoon.

Loveland: 8”

Breckenridge: 6”

Arapahoe Basin: 6”

Winter Park: 4”

I took a quick look at the Aspen area (mountains are not open) and their automated snow measurement system also shows 4-8 inches at the mid-and-upper mountain.

I see mostly clear skies on the cams around sunrise on Monday morning, so the sun will work over this new snow very quickly. Get out there ASAP to enjoy the powder before the sun eats into it.

Monday

The morning will start on the quiet side, then we’ll see showers starting around noon and continue through the afternoon. These afternoon showers could drop a few inches by the time the lifts close. The map below shows the snow forecast during the day on Monday, and it’s from the CAIC WRF 2km model (this is the same model used for all following maps).

Monday night

This is when we’ll see a LOT of moisture and enough energy to turn this moisture into a lot of snow and rain. The best chance for intense snow looks to be within a few hours of sunset and again later on Tuesday night around midnight. Most mountains should see 6-12 inches.

Tuesday

It’ll be a powder morning with double-digit snow totals for many areas. This is a warm storm, so expect thicker and surfy powder. The snow level in the mountains could get down to 8,000-9,000 feet, so most open mountains will see all snow (and not rain), though again, it’s a warmer storm so expect thicker powder. Surf’s up!

We will see a lull in the intense snow on Tuesday. There will be some showers, some dry weather, and I hope no sunshine as there should be plenty of lingering moisture and clouds. Any hint of sunshine, even through some clouds, can quickly turn the new snow to mush, so again, get out early in the morning to enjoy the best turns.

The snow forecast for Tuesday shows 2-6 inches from scattered showers through the day.

Tuesday night

This will be when we’ll see the second round of intense snow. I really like this setup as we’ll have the jet stream overhead, which will provide strong energy to lift the air and create a band of not-too-fast-moving intense snowfall, slowly shifting from west to east across Colorado.

Wednesday



If I had to pick one morning to ride during the next few days, I think it’s Wednesday morning.

We’ll wake up to snow falling across most of the state, and snow should continue through late morning or midday. Total snowfall from Tuesday night through Wednesday midday should be 6-15+ inches. And since snow should continue through Wednesday morning, along with temperatures that are a few degrees cooler than Tuesday, snow quality could be a little better (lighter) than Tuesday morning, but don't get your hopes up for blower powder as temperatures will not be that cold.

Below you can see the 3-6+ inches that should accumulate on Wednesday morning and midday.

Wednesday Night

Snow should wind down by Wednesday afternoon and evening with just a few lingering inches here and there.

Storm Recap

* Amount of Snow: 10-30 inches for most high-elevation mountains around Colorado

* Snow Quality: Thicker and surfy. It’s still fun even if it’s not blower!

* Timing: Tuesday morning powder of 6-12 inches, Wednesday morning powder through midday of 6-15 inches.

Extended Forecast

Thursday, May 2 through Monday, May 6 should be mostly dry, though I can’t rule out a shower and some clouds.

Then there is increasing model consistency that we will see another stormy period between about May 7-10. And the longer-range models show temperatures near average with above-average precipitation for the remainder of May, so I suspect that we’ll see additional storms. It’s too early to know if these systems will be strong enough and cold enough to create powder days.

My next post will be on the morning of Tuesday, April 30th, and I’ll post again on Wednesday morning. Then I’ll take a break until (if) we see another significant storm.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Announcements

OpenSnow

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains

Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide

Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide

Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains

Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains

Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains