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TO: Amy McGrath for Congress FROM: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group DATE: February 21, 2018 RE: Results from Recent KY 6th CD General Election Survey

Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among 401 likely GENERAL election voters from February 5 to 7, 2018. This survey, which is fully representative of the 6th

CD’s geographic and demographic characteristics, was conducted among landline

and cell phones, and has a margin of error of ±5%. This memo provides the key highlights:

Republican Congressman Andy Barr is highly vulnerable to defeat, with a strong plurality of 6th CD voters already wanting to replace him in the election for Congress.

Just 44% of voters give Andy Barr a “positive” rating for

his performance as congressman, just 38% say they want to elect him to another term, and fully 47% want to make a change from Barr.

Despite facing an understandable name recognition deficit (Amy has 45% name ID compared with 90% for Jim Gray, who has held elected office for

more than a decade in the district’s largest jurisdiction AND ran for the US

Senate in 2016), Amy already is in a very competitive position in a general election against Andy Barr.

In the ini tial trial heat, Amy trails Barr by just 48% to 44%, which makes the race very competitive and is an encouraging result for a new candidate. Gray does slightly better in the initial trial heat (49% Gray, 47% Barr), but the fact that Amy basically is in a dead heat with Barr (within the margin of error) despite her LOWER name ID indicates her stronger potential.

In fact, the results of the initial trial heat among voters who currently recognize Amy and Jim Gray illustrate her vote growth

. Among voters who

recognize “Amy McGrath,” Amy is ahead of Andy Barr by 60% to 38%. Among voters who recognize “Jim Gray,” Gray is ahead by only 50% to 48%.

The potential for Amy McGrath to be a STRONGER general election candidate, with appeal to a broader and more diverse coalition of voters than Jim Gray, is apparent when voters react to POSITIVE descriptions of Amy and Gray.