This has been a year of waiting. First, we waited for an election to be called. Then we waited for a humdrum election to be over. That election turned out to be less humdrum than we thought, but that only led us to a new period of waiting: for an unexpected government to announce policies, and an unexpected opposition to show us what sort of an opposition it would be. With two weeks until Christmas, we are still stuck in limbo, the political equivalent of the doctor’s waiting room.

The second-biggest question about the Morrison government, for which we have only the faintest tea leaves, is whether it will be good at policy. Perhaps, if you’re asking that question 16 months after someone becomes prime minister, you already have your answer. But it is also possible, if you squint slightly, to see the Prime Minister’s reign the way he might: he took over; then it was Christmas; then he had to win an election; then the real policy work began, behind closed doors; then it was Christmas again.

Scott Morrison has done little to impress on the policy front. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

2019 was a year of meagre policy achievements. But there is a chance, even a reasonable chance, that all the backgrounding about “deep dives” by ministers quietly working away will turn out to be accurate, and the ugly caterpillar of the Abbott-Turnbull era will emerge from the cocoon of 2019 as the beautiful Morrison policy butterfly of 2020.

There are two reasons, so far, to doubt this charming narrative.