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A majority of Welsh voters now back staying in the European Union, according to a poll.

Research undertaken by YouGov for ITV Wales and Cardiff University shows that, excluding don’t knows, Wales would vote 53% to 47% for Remain.

In last month’s referendum, Welsh voters split 52.5% to 47.5% in favour of Leave.

Professor Roger Scully, of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, said: “In short, there is not much overall change.

"But that which has occurred is in the direction of growing support for the idea of the UK remaining in the EU – roughly a six percentage point swing in this direction since the referendum.

Count for little

“The key words there, though, are ‘since the referendum’.

"Unless those supporting continued EU membership can find some way of overturning or re-running the vote, their views may now count for very little.

“When we look at the details of the results, we find that while nearly all those (fully 97%) of those who indicate that they voted Remain in the referendum still hold to this position, only 86% of those who voted for Leave do so.

"There appears to be a small cohort of voters who voted to Leave, but who may now be experiencing what some in the media have termed ‘Bregret’.

“More generally, looking at the details of the results, we see in Wales many of the patterns that were common elsewhere in the UK during the referendum. Support for Remain continues to be strongest among younger voters, among the more affluent, and among supporters of Labour and Plaid Cymru. Support for Leave is stronger amongst older voters, the less affluent, and supporters of the Conservatives and (especially, and unsurprisingly) UKIP.”

Highest levels of support in a YouGov poll for Plaid

The same poll also found that Labour has fallen to its lowest level of support for both Westminster and the National Assembly since before the 2010 general election. Meanwhile, Plaid Cymru has risen to the highest levels of support ever in a YouGov poll in Wales.

(Image: Rob Browne)

The period immediately prior to the fieldwork for the poll also saw the Prime Minister announce his resignation and the start of the Conservative leadership contest, as well as the departure of more than half of Jeremy Corbyn’s Shadow Cabinet.

In a Westminster election, support for Labour would be 34% (-5); Conservative 23% (+1); Plaid Cymru 16% (+2); Ukip 16% (-2); Liberal Democrats 8% (+2); Others 3% (+1).

'Unambiguously bad news for Labour'

Prof Scully said: “Labour had not previously fallen below 36% for Westminster in any poll conducted in Wales since the May 2010 general election. So this is unambiguously bad news for the party.

“However, the Conservatives have had their own problems and have not been in much of a position to take advantage.

"They edge up only very marginally here, and to a support level that is still more than four points short of their Welsh vote share at last year’s general election.

(Image: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

"Meanwhile, post-referendum Ukip support actually appears to have slipped slightly, while that for the Liberal Democrats has moved up by a couple of points.

“It is Plaid Cymru who will probably be most pleased by these results.

"Our previous Barometer poll had equalled Plaid’s highest Westminster support level with YouGov since October 2009; rather than slip back slightly towards their long-term average, they have now advanced two points further.

"The 16% Plaid score here is better than they have ever done in a YouGov poll in Wales.”

Swing

Based on a uniform swing across Wales, Labour would win 26 seats, gaining Gower and Vale of Clwyd, but losing Ynys Mon; the Conservatives 9 seats (losing Gower and Vale of Clwyd); Plaid Cymru four seats (winning Ynys Mon) and the Liberal Democrats would retain their sole seat of Ceredigion.

In an Assembly election, Labour would be on 32% in constituency seats (-2); Plaid Cymru 23% (no change); Conservative 19% (+1); Ukip 16% (+1); Liberal Democrats 7% (no change); Others 3% (no change).

In the regional vote, Labour was on 29% (-3); Plaid Cymru 24% (+3); Conservative 18% (no change); Ukip 15% (+1); Liberal Democrats 6% (no change); Others 8% (+10).

Overall, Labour would win 26 seats (down 3 on May’s Assembly election); Plaid Cymru 15 seats (up 3); Conservative 10 seats (down 1); Ukip 8 seats (up 1); and Liberal Democrats 1 seat (no change).

* The poll had a sample of 1,010 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov between June 30 and July 4.