Friends of Dominic Cummings (and, yes, he has some) insist on the following: Boris Johnson will not seek a general election when the Commons returns next month. And if MPs vote that they have no confidence in the government, no general election will take place until after October 31, by which time Britain will have left the EU. Brexit will happen on time.

The prime minister’s main adviser may be wrong. It could be that the Commons, empowered by the Speaker, finds new ways to a further extension, or even revocation of Article 50. Perhaps an election will take place before the end of October after all. Or it may be that Downing Street plans a snap poll and is trying a bit of misdirection.