TRUMP ON PATH TO CLINCH: Math says no one can catch him -- SENATORS may cave -- PHRASES candidates repeat most – STATE DINNER menu -- GUESTS at Mrs. Reagan funeral Presented by

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; [email protected]) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; [email protected])

Good Friday morning. SPRING AHEAD this weekend. And let’s dance: We’re two days from March Madness “Selection Sunday” -- men’s NCAA tournament bracket announced 5:30 p.m.

THE MATH -- “Why Trump’s rivals can’t catch him,” by Scott Bland and Steve Shepard: “Trump is the only Republican candidate with a realistic chance of winning the 1,237 delegates necessary to claim the party’s presidential nomination, according to a POLITICO analysis. A close examination of demographics, polling, and delegate allocation rules in the remaining states suggests there is a path for Trump to win a majority of delegates, but it is a tightrope walk ...

“Trump needs to win over 54 percent of the remaining delegates to clinch ... ‘A number of us who have done modeling district-by-district ... see ... Trump finishing in the 1,350- to 1,370-delegate range if he wins Ohio and Florida, and right around 1,200 without them,’ said one neutral Republican strategist ...

“Barring major upsets in Florida and Ohio [on Tue.], Ted Cruz will need to win approximately 70 percent of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination outright. That essentially makes Cruz’s path to 1,237 as unlikely as Marco Rubio’s route.” http://politi.co/1WdRFEr

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--“Trump makes inroads with megadonors,” by Ken Vogel: “The shift ... is ... a reflection of their disdain for ... Hillary.” http://politi.co/1LfZl8L

--CNN’s Manu Raju: A “surprisingly large number of Republican senators are open to backing Trump. The billionaire businessman would dramatically boost turnout and help Republicans down-ballot.” http://cnn.it/1RbAm2j

--“Cruz lands first Senate endorsement: Mike Lee” http://politi.co/1Mb03yY

--N.Y. Post cover, “DONALD DOC: Carson backs Trump” http://nyp.st/1RDpIlq

DAILY DONALD – USA Today p. 1A, below fold, “Trump mauls media: ‘I do hate them’ – Disdain grows for those covering campaign,” by Rick Hampson (online: “Trump blasts the news media that’s helped him to dominate GOP field”): “[R]eporters ... are grouped in pens, to which Trump directs the attention of his raucous crowds with comments like, ‘What slime!’ ... It’s like working the refs ... the hope is that a complaint now will yield more favorable treatment (or coverage) in the future.” http://usat.ly/21lXnFy ... List of 12 attacks http://usat.ly/1RaPnaV

--“Networks Have Conducted 69 Phone Interviews with Trump In The Past 69 Days,” by BuzzFeed’s Kyle Blaine: “Fox & Friends alone has already dialed Trump in 17 times this year. He’s done 11 of those interviews on ABC’s Good Morning America and 10 on NBC’s ‘Today.’ ... Trump has appeared by phone on various CNN programs 9 different times, and 12 times on MSNBC, 8 of which were on Morning Joe.” http://bzfd.it/1LW27ji

HOT AUDIO -- “Exclusive: Audio and transcript of Breitbart reporter allegedly being roughed up by Trump campaign manager,” by Hadas Gold: “Donald Trump’s spokesperson flatly denied on Thursday that campaign manager Corey Lewandowski roughed up a reporter [Michelle Fields] for the conservative website Breitbart, and suggested she was fabricating the incident in a desperate bid for attention. A roughly two and a half minute audio recording ... while not definitive — supports the reporter’s version of the events.” http://politi.co/1nBVKGl

PIC DU JOUR -- @MichelleFields: “I guess these [bruises] just magically appeared on me @CLewandowski_ @realDonaldTrump. So weird.” http://bit.ly/1QJ6Xzo

--Carol Lee, president of the White House Correspondents’ Association: “We have been increasingly concerned with some of the rhetoric aimed at reporters covering the presidential race and urge all candidates seeking the White House to conduct their campaigns in a manner that respects the robust back-and-forth between politicians and the press that is critical to a thriving democracy.”

ARTICLE OF THE DAY -- MICHAEL KRUSE’s Politico Magazine Friday cover, “1988: The Year Donald Lost His Mind: At the early peak of his success, he pulled the trigger on a manic series of deals that nearly brought him down”: “[H]is response to his surging celebrity was a series of manic, ill-advised ventures. He cheated on his wife ... In business, he was acquisitive to the point of recklessness. ... He glitzed up his gaudy yacht, the yacht the banks would seize less than three years later. ... The man who now says he would be a good president because of his ability to make good deals made bad deals; 1988 was the year in which the candidate whose pitch is success sowed the seeds of many of his signature failures.” http://politi.co/1We9Jhy

POSTED OVERNIGHT ... ROBERT DRAPER in forthcoming issue of The New Yorker, “A Reporter at Large: THE GO-BETWEEN -- The Mexican actress who dazzled El Chapo ... After [Kate del Castillo] tweeted about El Chapo, the drug lord got in touch and asked her to make a movie about his life”: “Last month, I met del Castillo at her house in a gated community in the Brentwood neighborhood of Los Angeles. ... She sees elements of sexism in the media’s depiction of her: ‘They always mention my age [43]. They don’t talk about Sean [Penn]’s age [55], or him being in love with or admiring El Chapo.’”

--10 pages in the magazine, with amazing pic, “Penn and del Castillo pose with El Chapo. Photograph Courtesy Kate del Castillo.” http://bit.ly/2255ps5



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TOP TWEETS: @RichLowry: “Amazing that candidates losing to a frontrunner w/ time running out have concluded they can’t attack him” ... @RalstonReports: “Marco says he’s 30 years away from retirement. He's actually less than a week away” ... @ezraklein: “Sure, this debate is substantive. But the substance is often wrong, exaggerated, nonsensical, implausible, misleading ... You know things are going well when the chair of the RNC has to constantly reiterate that the party will support its own nominee.”

JAKE TAPPER REVIEW – “CNN ditches the circus for substance,” by Hadas Gold: “‘I just found it to be a very elegant evening,’ Trump said in a post-debate interview ... On a day when the news cycle focused on violence at Trump rallies and his claim that Islam hates America, the debate was surprisingly substantive ...

“After Trump gave a factually dubious answer about ... Common Core, ... Tapper pushed back. ... ‘You’re right, Jake,’ Trump said. ... Tapper ... brought up an issue typically unheard of at a Republican debate — climate change.” http://politi.co/1U6hiJk

THE NARRATIVE: Drudge banner, with pic of GOP final four on debate stage: “FINALLY, THEY’RE BORING!” ... HuffPost banner, “CIVIL, CALM AND SCARY AS HELL” ... N.Y. Times 2-col. lead, “Candidates Lower Volume As Five Key Primaries Near: Republican Hopefuls, Debating in Miami, Stick to Issues and Avoid the Insults” ... WashPost 2-col. lead (debate story), “Novel approach: Talk about policy.”

--“11 most interesting moments of the GOP debate,” by Kyle Cheney: “Trump keeps calm, Cruz gives Trump a pass and Rubio hits Trump on Islam.” http://politi.co/1XhgfVd

LAST NIGHT’s MENU from the State Dinner for Canada: “Alaskan Halibut ‘Casseroles’ with Cepes, Asparagus, Chanterelles, Baby Onions, and Lardon and Herbed Butter ... Roasted Apricot Galette with Appalachian Cheese, Heirloom Lettuces, Pine Nut Crisps Pence [with] Chardonnay ‘Sebastiano’ 2013 ... Baby Lamb Chops with Yukon Potato Dauphinoise and Fricassee of Spring Vegetables [with] Cliff Lede ‘High Fidelity’ 2012 ... Dessert Maple Pecan Cake with Cocoa Nib Wafer, Butterscotch Swirl Ice Cream [with] Chateau Chantal Ice Wine 2013.” 8-page White House State Dinner program and menu http://1.usa.gov/1RUjXme

--OBAMA’s CRUZ CRACK: “Where else could a boy born in Calgary run for president of the United States?” http://politi.co/1nC4Ov9

--“The Canadian State Dinner, in pictures”: 19 pics http://politi.co/21m0PzV

HOT VIDEO – @ZekeJMiller: “@Timodc and @realDonaldTrump meet again” -- 30-sec. video of Tim Miller asking Trump where his tie was made, and Trump repeatedly responding by saying: “You did a great job representing Bush.” http://bit.ly/1TR8sQk

INSTAGRAM DU JOUR -- @seanmspicer: “Team @GOP comms at #gopdebate @univmiami” http://bit.ly/1P3kqxX

SPOTTED: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) on Delta's DCA to Minneapolis-St. Paul flight this morning, in coach. Our tipster: "She deserves to be up here in First..."

SEND YOUR SPOTTINGS to [email protected]

VALLEY TALK – L.A. Times 1-col. lead, “Apple takes its hacking case to Latinos: Putting a top exec on Univision may be part of a bid by tech giant to frame the privacy battle with key groups,” by Paresh Dave: “Apple is laying the foundation for what could be a years-long clash in the courts and legislative halls.” http://lat.ms/225cZmq

AXE and HILLARY -- “Clinton’s backseat driver: The running commentary from one of the stewards of the Obama legacy gets deep under the campaign’s skin,” by Annie Karni: “As a CNN senior political correspondent, host of his own podcast and Twitter junkie, Axelrod has become Clinton’s backseat driver, quick to point out flaws and offer unsolicited advice. In particular, Bill Clinton ... has been ‘very worked up about it,’ said a source ...

“In Clinton’s Brooklyn-based campaign, many of her aides feel like they have enough on their plates without the sideline kibitzing from a should-be ally. (Axelrod’s nephew, Jesse Lehrich, even works on the campaign as part of her communication’s team; his close personal friend is senior strategist Joel Benenson).” http://politi.co/224VF18

MOST REPEATED PHRASES of the GOP CANDIDATES in the first 11 debates (before last night), per Milo Beckman of FiveThirtyEight:

--Trump: 1) “we don’t win” ... 2) “you have to” ... 3) “it’s going to be” ... 4) “eminent domain” ... 7) “give me a break” ... 12) “a lot of money” ... 15) “one of the worst” ... 20) “Atlantic City.”

--Cruz: 1) “I would note” ... 2) “business flat tax” ... 3) “right to keep and bear arms” ... 4) “simple flat tax” ... 5) “the fight” ... 6) “religious liberty” ... 8) “the Gang of Eight” ... 11) “Jeff Sessions and Steve King” ... 15) “radical Islamic terrorism.”

--Rubio: 1) “when I’m president” ... 2) “to reach more people and change more lives than ever before” ... 3) “the 21st century” ... 4) “like the rest of the world” ... 5) “the world is a safer and a better place when America is the strongest” ... 13) “this fiction that Barack Obama doesn’t know what he’s doing -- he knows exactly what” ... 18) “paycheck to paycheck.”

--Kasich: 1) “fact of the matter is” ... 2) “they have not committed a crime since they’ve been here” ... 3) “in Ohio) ... 4) “of Ohio” ... 5) “a balanced budget” ... 7) “when I was in Washington” ... 16) “go back to Washington.”

MOST REPETITIOUS CANDIDATE – “Marco Rubio knows exactly what he’s saying”: Rubio, with “a measure of repetitiveness” of 52.6%, crushes Trump at 18.9%, Cruz at 15.8% and Kasich at 12.6%. http://53eig.ht/1RUbSOv

SUNDAY SO FAR:

--“Meet the Press”: Cruz ... Kasich

--“Face the Nation”: Kasich ... Battleground Tracker for Florida, Ohio, Illinois ... Panel: Jeffrey Goldberg, Peggy Noonan, Michael Duffy, Nancy Cordes

--ABC’s “This Week” -- George Stephanopoulos anchors: Roundtable: Donna Brazile, Matthew Dowd, Bill Kristol, Jorge Ramos

--“Fox News Sunday”: Kasich ... Panel: Karl Rove, Julie Pace, Kimberley Strassel, Juan Williams ... Power Player: Alex Skatell, CEO and founder, Independent Journal Review!

--CNN’s “State of the Union” – Jake Tapper anchors from Columbus: Carly Fiorina (exclusive) ... Panel: Ana Navarro, Bakari Sellers, Rep. Tom Marino (R-Penn.)

--CNN’s “Inside Politics,” live 8 to 9 a.m.: Nia-Malika Henderson, Jonathan Martin, Molly Ball, Manu Raju.

2016 PLAYERS – “Former Cruz chief of staff to head pro-Cruz PAC,” by Katie Glueck: “Chip Roy will head Trusted Leadership PAC.” http://politi.co/227SVMO

JESSE BENTON’s new job -- Alex Isenstadt: “A pro-Donald Trump super PAC has tapped Jesse Benton, a veteran Republican operative with ties to Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell, to serve as its chief strategist. The move is the latest indication that the super PAC, dubbed Great America PAC, is developing into a serious organization.” http://politi.co/1pcz2pE

DANNY DIAZ, who spent time with his family after the Jeb campaign ended, returned Monday to FP1 Strategies, where he is founding partner. The public affairs firm celebrated its 5-year anniversary on Wednesday. Read a profile Daniel and Marc Caputo wrote of Danny last November, “Bush’s bulldog” http://politi.co/1LJmFIs ... Pic of FP1’s anniversary cake http://on.fb.me/21m6eXM

PROGRAM FOR MRS. REAGAN’S FUNERAL -- 2 p.m. ET today: “Mrs. Reagan will be buried at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, next to her husband, Ronald Wilson Reagan ... The program includes: ... Gospel Reading of John 14:1-6 by Ms. Diane Sawyer ... Reflections by the Honorable James A. Baker ... Reflections by Mr. Tom Brokaw ... Reflections by Ms. Patti Davis ... The program’s honorary pallbearers include: Dr. Richard Davis [her brother], Mr. Robert Higdon, Mr. Jerrold Perenchio, The Honorable Frederick J. Ryan Jr., The Honorable Robert H. Tuttle, Mr. Douglas Wick, Mr. George Will.” http://bit.ly/1UXBlJu

--NOTABLE GUESTS: “Presidential Families: Mrs. Barack Obama, President and Mrs. George W. Bush, Mrs. Bill Clinton [!], Mrs. Jimmy Carter, Caroline Kennedy, Tricia Nixon Cox, Lynda Johnson, Luci Baines Johnson, Steven Ford ... Politicians: Gov. Jerry Brown, Ms. Nancy Pelosi, Right Honourable Brian Mulroney, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Newt and Callista Gingrich, Michael Antonovich ... Close Family Friends: Betsy Bloomingdale, Annalise Anderson ...

“Media/Celebrities (alphabetical listing): Tom Brokaw, Katie Couric, Bo Derek, Sam Donaldson, Anjelica Huston, Larry King, Mike Love, Chris Matthews, Wayne Newton, Melissa Rivers, Diane Sawyer, Tom Selleck, Tina Sinatra, Gary Sinise, Yakov Smirnoff, John Stamos, Mr. T.” http://bit.ly/1Lg2q8J

PLAYBOOKERS’ Nancy Reagan memories... ANITA McBRIDE, former Laura Bush chief of staff: “2005 - Mrs Reagan came to Washington to accept an award on behalf of her husband and Laura Bush invited her to stay at the White House. Unexpectedly Pope John Paul II died and we left for Rome before Mrs Reagan was due to arrive. Mrs Bush asked that I call Mrs Reagan’s office to make sure she would still plan to stay in the Residence despite the Bushes not being here and that the Residence staff was ready to receive her with open arms and take care of her.

“While in Rome, Mrs Bush was asked to approve use of White House rooms for Diane Sawyer's interview with Mrs Reagan, Mrs Bush suggested Mrs Reagan use the Vermeil Room and had the residence staff move Mrs Reagan’s stunning portrait there to be the backdrop for the interview as a beautiful reminder of her time in the WH. ...

“2007 - Mrs Bush and I went to the Reagan Library where she and Mrs Reagan opened the Heart Truth Red Dress exhibit. The event was sold out with overflow crowd waiting outside to get in. Mrs Reagan was so funny - commenting to us how for so many years she was criticized for her clothes and 'now they are lining up out the door to see them.'” Pic of Mrs. Bush and Mrs. Reagan at the exhibit http://bit.ly/1MbhVtq

--PAM STEVENS: “I loved her. Am so honored to have worked for the Reagan’s – I always kept in touch with her throughout my career and tried to help anyway I could.” Pic of Pam with the Reagans http://bit.ly/1XhzvBX

MEDIAWATCH -- “Gov. Rick Scott kicked off ‘Morning Joe,’” by Nolan McCaskill: “Co-hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski spent nearly as much time talking about the governor — with Brzezinski blasting him over his refusal to answer questions during the interview and questioning whether he should be leading a state — after his segment than they spent talking to him during it.” 45-sec. video http://politi.co/21m0A8b

--“The New York Times Magazine ... debuted its inaugural ‘Music Issue’ [coming Sunday] along with two new virtual-reality films in the NYT VR app. ... 25 writers chose significant songs to dissect, resulting in a far-ranging playlist of songs that tell us where music is going. Some of the artists featured include: Justin Bieber, the ‘Hamilton’ cast, Sun Kil Moon, Wilco, Vince Staples, Rihanna, Mac DeMarco, Lionel Richie, Charlie Puth, Coldplay, Fetty Wap, Pitbull, D'Angelo, Vybz Kartel, Twenty One Pilots, Chance the Rapper and David Bowie. Jenna Wortham writes about Syd Tha Kyd and The Internet, the independent, black alt-group who’ve rejected the normal paths of musical success, instead charting their path through ... the internet.

“The accompanying virtual reality film ... takes viewers inside Syd’s home studio as The Internet prepares for a world tour. Run The Jewels -- the hip hop supergroup -- also premiere the virtual-reality video for their song ‘Crown,’ a standout track from the group's sophomore album ‘Run the Jewels 2,” exclusively in the NYT VR app, which is free ... in the Google Play and iOS App stores.” http://nyti.ms/1pjVzBm ... The cover http://bit.ly/1YETNqe

TRAILER OF THE DAY: “Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War” http://bit.ly/1QJ1pVQ

WEST WING DEPARTURE LOUNGE: “Today is James Kvaal’s last day as Deputy Director of the White House Domestic Policy Council. James has earned a reputation in the West Wing for his policy chops and his dry sense of humor. Colleagues past and present will fete his departure [this] evening at a hipster-themed fiesta worthy of his tenure, complete with requisite Mezcal and tequila drinks, tacos and churros, and a White House report and fact sheet on James’ greatest accomplishments. Beginning in the fall, James will be teaching at the University of Michigan’s Ford School as part of the Towsley Foundation Policymaker in Residence Program.” Pic of James and POTUS in the Oval http://bit.ly/1pATiBA

TRANSITIONS: “Elizabeth Shappell has started as communications director for the David Brock founded pro-Clinton Super Pac Correct the Record, replacing Adrienne Watson who recently left to work for Clinton campaign. Shappell, a Hoosier native and Notre Dame grad, is the former communications director for U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly and was most recently senior manager for communications at the National Breast Cancer Coalition.”

-- Liza Henshaw has been hired as Global Citizen’s new COO and is joining from the Environmental Defense Fund where she spent 13 years most recently as Chief Development Officer.

OUT AND ABOUT: The Herald Group celebrated its expanding Third Party Alliance and Coalitions team, led by Kasia Mulligan and John Bates, with a happy hour last night at Sixth Engine. SPOTTED: Leah Lorber, Chelsee Woodey, Molly Wilkinson, Scott LaGanga, Christine Murphy, Mike Torrey, Greg Thomas, Kyle Hauptman, David Lasseter, Grover Norquist, Tom Schatz, Rachel Kopec, Mike Leland, Stacie Rumenap, Jeff Lambert, Erik Telford, Mario Lopez, Holly Wilson.

-- Canada 2020 hosted a party Wednesday night at the Renwick Gallery to celebrate PM Justin Trudeau’s visit, with two female Mounties from Nova Scotia greeting guests at the door. Signature cocktails were The Canuck made with Crowne Royal Northern Harvest Rye and L’Habitant, made with Ungava Gin from northern Quebec.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD: Scott Lindlaw, former AP White House correspondent, now in S.F., and Edelman alum Vanessa Lindlaw, email friends and family: “Meet Bowdoin David Francis Frederick Lindlaw. He’s named for four of his great-grandfathers and a couple of grandfathers, too. ‘Bowdie’ arrived [Wed.] ... with a full head of copper-colored hair. He’s been flirting with the girls in the nursery and impressing the nurses with his powerful appetite. His 2-year-old sister Katherine climbed into bed with Bowdie and Vanessa, ... gently placed an arm around him and began rocking him; and then assisted in changing his diaper. ... We can’t wait for you to meet our little man.” Pics http://bit.ly/1LW337o ... http://bit.ly/1Mb2Fg0

--Jason Schechter, chief comms officer of Bloomberg L.P., and Diana Benton Schechter, strategic advisor to the CEO of Atlantic Philanthropies: “We’re thrilled to welcome Ava Benton Schechter ... Born Wednesday.” Pic http://bit.ly/1LW2rif

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Alyse Nelson, president and CEO of Vital Voices ... DCCC’s Jean Cornell ... Stuart Spencer, a Louise Slaughter alum and Rules Committee alum (h/t Mark Spengler) ... (was Mon.): Bloomberg’s star commodities and agriculture reporter Lydia Mulvany, the pride of Ottawa, Illinois, who studied philosophy before going into journalism.

BIRTHDAYS: Perri Peltz, journalist and filmmaker for HBO Documentaries and N.Y. Times Op-Docs (hat tips: Autumn and Eric; we jumped the gun earlier) ... Maria Christina “MC” Gonzalez ... Rupert Murdoch is 85 ... Sam Donaldson is 82 ... former U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.) is 51 ... Amy Weiss (h/ts Jon Haber, Heather Podesta, and Teresa) ... Politico’s Matt Sobocinski … Nick “Slapshot” Shapiro, the pride of Simsbury (Conn.) High School, where he’s the all-time leading hockey scorer ... Ben Becker of Precision Strategies and Stabenow alum ... Jon Cohen, VP of survey research at SurveyMonkey ... Jason Herbert, “The Grown-Up,” legislative director for Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), is 3-0 (h/t Will Boyington) ... MSNBC’s Christina Arvanites, who works with Lawrence O’Donnell (h/t Hayley Andrews) ... Jen Mullin, director of public affairs at Uber, alum at Glover Park Group, Vilsack and Harkin, and a “Night owl, fan of flyover country,” per her Twitter … James Pollack, legislative correspondent/press assistant extraordinaire for Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.) ... Austin Carson, legislative director for Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Tex.), a Blake Farenthold alum ... Gale Norton … Ashley Summers ...

... ABC’s Justin Weaver, the pride of West Virginia … Nik Holtan of Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP and alum of Rep. Joe Crowley … Laurye Blackford, former “GMA” and CBS senior producer, who was Mrs. McCain’s comms director on the 2008 campaign ... Ashley Stover … Rachel Dodsworth, president and CEO of Adsworth Media and CRAFT alum ... Cookie “Tofu” McCarton ... Jeff Hayes, senior research officer at DoD, an expert on Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other South Asian states and a Special Forces alum ... Harry Wolff (h/t Ari Fleischer) ... Bush 43 VA Dept. alum Jon Schneider ... Tripp Welde ... Andrew Fagerstrom (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... singer Bobby McFerrin is 66 ... movie director Jerry Zucker is 66 ... Jimmy Fortune (The Statler Brothers) is 61 ... Johnny Knoxville is 45 ... LeToya is 35 ... actor Anton Yelchin is 27 (h/ts AP)

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Follow us on Twitter Anna Palmer @apalmerdc



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