Support for the Conservatives has surged in the past month, according to a Guardian/ICM opinion poll that puts the party four points ahead of Labour.

With just 80 days to go before the general election, the Tories are up six points since last month – their strongest showing in the Guardian’s ICM poll since May 2012 and only one point down on their 2010 general election result. Labour’s support fell by one point to 32%. The Liberal Democrats were also down a point, on 10%.

But as the Tories recovered, the smaller parties registered bigger losses. Ukip sank two, to just 9%, as did the Greens, who ended up on 7%, after their record showing last month.

The strength of the Tories’ showing is all the more notable because it comes after a week during which the Conservatives were under pressure over their connections with wealthy donors, with prime minister David Cameron’s 2011 move to appoint HSBC boss Stephen Green as a trade minister drawing fire in parliament.

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It also contrasts with three surveys published over the weekend, and a fourth on Monday, which registered Labour leads of two to three points. But having come closest to predicting three of the last four general elections, ICM’s regular phone poll for the Guardian is seen as the gold standard, and so Monday’s result will bring the Tories particular cheer. In contrast with a miserable pre-Christmas showing in December, when ICM put Cameron’s party on just 28% , the Conservatives have now recovered by a substantial eight points.



Martin Boon, of ICM Unlimited, cautions against putting too much weight on any single survey, but said: “As the days tick down to 7 May, it could just be that some of those voters who have been flirting with upstart parties during much of this parliament are finally returning to the more established political tribes and to the Conservatives in particular.”

There is support for this view in the answers that respondents gave on “the single issue that will concern you most when it comes to casting your vote”. The health service, identified by an unchanged 31%, remains by some margin the most important policy area. But under the surface, as the election nears, it looks as if the economy could be gaining in salience at the expense of other issues of the past few years, such as immigration.

“Jobs, prices and wages” – the bread and butter of so many British election campaigns – is now identified as the top priority by 17%, up three points on last month, which takes it into second place. Immigration, meanwhile, which was the priority for 17% last month and 20% last October, dropped to 15% and into third place. With the importance of Europe also declining on this measure, Boon says, “it does look as if both of the great Ukip preoccupations, immigration and Europe, just could be slipping away from centre-stage, ahead of a campaign which the health service and the economy are likely to dominate”.