Alabama could be among the states least affected economically by the coronavirus outbreak, according to research from Moody’s Analytics.

Moody’s compiled data on March 30 and looked at six metrics: exposure to COVID-19, demographics, trade and travel disruptions, tourism, finance and commodities. A pair of economists from the University of Alabama last week said Alabama’s economy could be on a "normal path of recovery” by year’s end.

However, the Moody’s data should be taken with a grain of salt: The coronavirus pandemic is still an evolving situation, making concrete numbers and forecasts fluid. For example, new projections released Sunday from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington paint a less frightening picture of the death toll for Alabama.

“If you’re getting hit hard now and businesses are failing, and there’s bankruptcy and people are taking on debt or starting to default on debt, it’s going to be harder for those economies to recover,” Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi told Yahoo Finance. “So the No. 1 criteria for determining who recovers more gracefully will be who gets hit least hard during this period.”

States expected to be among the most affected anticipate large hits to tourism - Nevada and Hawaii. Others, like Washington and New York, have borne the brunt of the pandemic in terms of death toll and those affected.

Alabama was grouped among other states, like West Virginia and Missouri, and neighbors like Mississippi and Tennessee, as among the least exposed. As of April 6, Alabama has 45 reported deaths with 32 confirmed as caused by COVID-19. Moody’s projects that states with fewer deaths are better positioned to resume economic activity.

The picture could change in the coming weeks, however, once data becomes available on consumer loans issued since the national emergency began. It should also be noted that an earlier Moodys’ analysis estimated that key Alabama industries, such as auto manufacturers and suppliers, retail and global shipping could be most impacted by the pandemic in the short-term.

Alabama gross domestic product is about $221 billion. Of that, tourism accounts for about 7 percent of the state’s GDP, according to last year’s figures. Goods exports represent a little less than 10 percent of the state’s GDP, with leading categories including automobiles and aerospace products and parts.