Yvonne Wingett Sanchez

The Republic | azcentral.com

Sara Vogelsanger hasn’t voted in an Arizona election since moving here in 2014. And she wouldn’t show up at the polls this November except there's finally an issue on the ballot that she's passionate about: Proposition 205, which would legalize marijuana for recreational use.

The 20-year-old's friends use marijuana almost daily to cope with stress, she said, and she has friends and family members who have run afoul of the law for possessing the drug.

“I was always disinterested in politics,” said the Arizona State University student.

Political experts say the proposal to legalize marijuana, along with another ballot measure, Proposition 206, which would raise the minimum wage to $12 an hour by 2020, could motivate voters who traditionally stay home on Election Day.

POLLS: Half want to see marijuana legalized in Arizona | Most Arizona voters buy a $12 minimum wage

That includes younger people, lower-income voters and minorities who may feel disenfranchised or may not be as engaged in their communities. If, in fact, these voters turn out in higher numbers, experts said, it would likely help Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, and could hurt Republican nominee Donald Trump.

“It could increase those with more left-of-center views, and it will increase the turnout of the younger voter, which tend to be more Democrat-leaning,” GOP political consultant Bert Coleman said. “They actually have a financially-vested interest in getting minimum wage passed. And clearly, there’s some conventional wisdom that young people also partake in recreational drugs on a much larger scale than conservative, older voters.”

What happened in Colorado, Washington

The degree to which the ballot measures will increase turnout among younger, left-leaning voters is impossible to gauge at this point. Other factors — campaign spending and messaging — will also influence their participation.

In 2012, when voters were asked to legalize marijuana for recreational use in Colorado and Washington, exit polling suggested greater participation by young voters compared with 2008. And turnout during presidential years is historically much higher than midterm elections: During the last presidential election in 2012, 74 percent of registered voters cast a ballot, compared with 48 percent in the 2014 statewide election.

But another analysis of the Colorado and Washington votes casts doubt on the impact of the measures in those states. According to an analysis by FiveThirtyEight, a review of the turnout using the government's Current Population Survey "didn't show anywhere near the increase in young voters that exit polls did."

RELATED: Anti-marijuana campaign's biggest donor? Chandler pharma company | Prop. 205 sparks 'green rush' for medical-marijuana licenses

While ballot initiatives don’t bolster turnout in every election, GOP consultant Max Fose said this election could be different given the personalities and emotions in the presidential race.

“It could be a perfect storm,” Fose said. “I think the Clinton campaign has to be looking at this, too, and saying, ‘Wow, there’s compelling initiatives here.'”

Arizona pollster Mike O’Neil, who tracks voter attitudes, said the measures could affect turnout incrementally. But with some polls suggesting a close race between Clinton and Trump, “It could really matter. It could be an increment that pushes it over” for Clinton, O'Neil said.

Arizona's presidential race is a toss-up between rivals Clinton and Trump, according to a recent statewide Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll.

The live telephone survey found Clinton leading Trump 35.1 percent to 33.5 percent among likely voters in Arizona. The results were within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Third-party candidates captured another 8 percent or so. Nearly 23 percent were undecided.

MORE: Poll: Arizona a toss-up between Clinton, Trump | 5 things poll tells us about Arizona voters

University of Arizona Assistant Professor of Political Science Samara Klar said the marijuana and minimum-wage ballot measures could ignite enthusiasm among the same type of progressive voters who in 2012 turned out in states across the U.S. to pass ballot measures allowing same-sex marriage.

“It’s the same kind of audience,” Klar said. “And both of these are going to be seriously favorable for Hillary Clinton.”

Ballot measures have a history of helping statewide candidates in Arizona.

In 2002, for example, Indian gaming ballot measures were widely credited for boosting turnout, which helped Democrat Janet Napolitano win a tight race for governor by energizing the Native American vote and the electorate from all other political persuasions. That year, more than 56 percent of eligible voters cast ballots.

Impact down the ballot

Republican consultant Constantin Querard speculated that supporters of the marijuana and minimum-wage ballot measures chose the 2016 election specifically to help Clinton: "I think that was part of the calculus."

In 2014, a representative of an organization that has led marijuana-legalization efforts elsewhere, told The Republic the measures are more successful during higher-turnout presidential elections.

“That’s why we’re doing it in 2016,” Marijuana Policy Project Communications Director Mason Tvert said at the time. “It’s a presidential-election year, and traditionally, the more people who vote, the more support we see for ending marijuana prohibition.”

MONTINI: News flash! 100 percent of Arizonans favor legalizing marijuana | Doobie-ous political foes still blowing smoke over legal marijuana

Querard said the measures could put some down-ballot candidates in uncomfortable positions. He cited the race between U.S. Sen. John McCain and Democratic challenger U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick.

"If you’re Ann Kirkpatrick, say, are you for the weed, or are you against it?" he said. "I think McCain would be against full legalization, but I don't think Ann Kirkpatrick could be for the legalization."

Kirkpatrick said in a statement marijuana legalization should be left to voters.

McCain's Senate office and campaign office didn't respond to requests for comment.

As for the major-party presidential candidates, Clinton and Trump support legal access to medical marijuana and agree states should decide for themselves on the future of recreational use. On setting a federal minimum wage, which is currently $7.25, Clinton has said she would support a $15 federal minimum wage with certain stipulations. Trump's stance is unclear since he has contradicted himself on the issue.

Arizona previously voted to set the state's minimum wage at $8.05, above the federal level.

The parties differ starkly on marijuana and minimum wage.

The Democratic National Committee’s platform calls for a “reasoned pathway for future legalization” of marijuana, and says the federal government should downgrade the drug from the Controlled Substances Act. On the minimum wage, the platform says, “Americans should earn at least $15 an hour.”

At a state committee meeting on Sept. 10, the Arizona Democratic Party's governing board adopted resolutions to support marijuana legalization and the minimum wage.

The Republican National Committee’s platform blamed “cultural reasons” and a “lack of national leadership” for drug addiction, saying marijuana “is virtually legalized” even though it remains illegal under the federal Controlled Substances Act. The RNC’s platform says the minimum wage debate should be decided at the state and local levels.

The state GOP officially opposes marijuana legalization, but has not announced where it stands on minimum wage.

'Negative campaigns suppress participation'

Irma Maldonado, 18, a registered Democrat, isn’t enthusiastic about her party’s presidential nominee. She hasn’t decided whether she'll vote for Clinton or Trump.

She’s focused instead on Prop. 206.

In her mind, the state’s minimum wage of $8.05 is too low and deprives workers of a livable wage they deserve. She thinks the hourly wage should be $15 an hour.

“This is something that is going to help people. There’s tons of jobs out there that don’t pay good enough,” said Maldonado, a freshman at Grand Canyon University. “Things are out of reach for many people.”

Even if more voters turn out because of the minimum wage and marijuana measures, GOP consultant Chuck Coughlin said he thinks Arizona would remain out of reach for Democrats.

He said any predictions the two ballot measures could draw a substantial number of new voters is likely exaggerated. But he speculated that a well-funded "no" campaign against the measures could suppress turnout if the messaging is negative.

"Negative campaigns suppress participation, and so ... it may drive participation down," Coughlin said.

Follow the reporter on Twitter and Facebook. Reach her at yvonne.wingett@arizonarepublic.com or 602-444-4712.