Analysis: Liberal Democrat Leadership – the runners and riders

A look at the potential candidates to be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

The Prime Minister announced his resignation in front of Downing Street yesterday evening.

The Prime Minister’s shock resignation last night has launched the starting gun on the race to be the next Liberal Democrat Leader and Prime Minister. With the government experiencing a sudden period of renewal, and a number of crises over Brexit – the junior Classical Liberals are to pick a new Leader on Sunday – the next Prime Minister will be critical.

It is widely expected that TheNoHeart’s successor will come from the left of the Party. The Guardian has complied a list of the big figures who are most likely to run and most likely to win. Transport Secretary bloodycontrary and Northern Ireland Secretary JellyCow99 would be included on this list, but the former ruled himself out of contention on Twitter this morning and the latter confirmed to the Guardian that he won’t be standing.

Estoban06

Estoban06 is the favourite to be the next Liberal Democrat Leader and Prime Minister

Long considered the favourite to succeed TheNoHeart, the Leader of the Alliance Party Northern Ireland currently serves as Business, Work, and Innovation Secretary. He has confirmed to the Guardian his intention to run. He has been seen as a rising star of the Party since climbing the ranks relatively recently. Seen as being from the left of the Party, his election would be a departure from recent trends under the current leader, but it’s also a brand of Liberal Democrat politics that more naturally fits with the Party as it stands, and it’s yearning for some change. His weakness may be a lack of experience compared to his potential main competitors (who, as listed below, both occupy great offices of state), but he may make up for this in raw talent and enthusiasm.

Wagbo_

Wagbo_ revealed his candidacy in an op-ed published in the Guardian.

The Chancellor the Exchequer argued for “a liberalism for all” in a highly unusual public declaration of Leadership ambitions in the pages of a national newspaper. An incredibly experienced politician, called the Parliamentary “old guard” on twitter by Former Green Principal Speaker Trevism, who has previously led the Welsh Liberal Democrats. However, bloodycontrary has argued that Wagbo_ does represent a change in the Party. His storied career could either play to his benefit, or his cost, with Plaid Cymru dominating the General Election results in Wales on his watch – whether more could have been done to stop this is a matter of debate.

disclosedoak

disclosedoak before a Parliamentary Select Committee.

The former Green Principal Speaker, who now serves as Home Secretary, it is fair to say, is the potential candidate, who hasn’t already ruled themselves out, who is least likely to run. He is an experienced front line politician, and the only person on this list with national leadership experience, compared to other figures who have led the Party regionally. But his previous stint as the leader of another Party, and his eventual resignation and defection after a bruising period that saw great division and criticism, in a major crisis that led to TLC defeat in the London Mayoral Election, could be the main reason he doesn’t run, or, if he does, doesn’t win.

UPDATE: Since this article was published, Mr Oak has ruled himself out of the race and declared that he is endorsing Wagbo_.

Potential surprise contenders

Looking at the list of Liberal Democrat cabinet ministers and MPs, there are few other names that stand out as senior or well known enough to be major contenders. There is, however, a chance that some lesser known members could throw their hat in to gain notoriety or ensure a seat nearer the top of the cabinet after any potential reshuffle. Individuals named here are not necessarily going to be candidates, and are perhaps unlikely to be, but are junior characters worth mentioning.

In terms of these potential candidates, keep an eye on Jakexbox, the Minister for Equalities and former Labourite who may be eyeing a cabinet level job. Welsh Leader and Secretary of State Ruijormar may do the same. Prominent backbencher JackWilfred is fairly well known inside and outside the Party but lacks clear ambition, whilst Former Welsh Labour Leader Please_dont_yell sits comfortably on the backbenches after seemingly leaving front line politics – though he certainly has the political clout and skills to be a candidate. The chance that these figures will stand is slim, and it is even less likely that they will win, but it’s not impossible that a few lesser known figures will take it as an opportunity to raise their stock.