Bill Shorten is making his final pitch to voters in Western Australia, but Liberals are hopeful of sandbagging their seats

Labor strategists believe the party could win up to four seats in Western Australia, as Bill Shorten and Scott Morrison make their final pitch to marginal seat voters in the state.

But in a sign that any gains in the west will be hard fought, the Coalition is growing confident of sandbagging its seats as the election campaign turns increasingly negative in the final run-up to Saturday’s poll.

Both leaders have found time to visit WA in the final week of the election campaign, with Morrison attending the party’s state campaign launch on Monday night, and Shorten due to speak at a business breakfast on Wednesday morning.

Shorten will draw on the popularity of the WA premier, Mark McGowan, in a speech to Perth business leaders this morning, urging voters to also put their support behind a federal Labor government.

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“Two years ago, the people of Western Australia had the wisdom to reject the Liberal-One Nation alliance and choose a responsible, reforming Labor government.

“At this election, I’m asking all Australians to make that same sound judgment: to reject the coalition of chaos, to say no to a Morrison-Palmer-Hanson government and vote for my stable, united and talented Labor team.”

Labor’s election campaign has been buoyed by the success of the McGowan government, which swept into power in a landslide victory in 2017 with the largest majority government in WA parliamentary history.

McGowan has been a key element of Labor’s campaign in the west. He is featured in radio advertisements urging a vote for federal Labor, while his face is also prominently displayed on the so-called “Bill bus” alongside Shorten.

Party sources on both sides believe the 2017 state result was the high water mark for Labor and suggest the Coalition has recovered some of its popularity since. But the result also reinforced the view that traditionally conservative seats in the state are not set in stone.

This week’s Newspoll suggests the Liberals have improved their position in the state since the beginning of the year, with the Coalition ahead 52-48, a reversal in fortunes since the first quarter of the year when it lagged Labor 51-49. But this is still down compared to the 2016 election result of 55-45, when it suffered a 3.6% per cent swing and lost two seats to the ALP.

Five government-held marginal seats in the state have been targeted by Labor since it first preselected candidates for “winnable seats” 18 months ago, but the party has since downgraded its expectations, with the gain of three seats now seen as a strong result. Four is possible, but unlikely.

Top of the list for the Labor party is the seat of Swan held by the Liberals on a 3.6% margin, which is being contested by Hannah Beazley, the daughter of former leader Kim Beazley.

Labor has devoted significant resources to the seat, estimated as much as $500,000, in the hope it can build on the 3.75% swing it secured in 2016 against the sitting member Steve Irons, a close ally of Morrison.

In addition to Swan, the party is also targeting Hasluck (2.1%), Pearce (3.6%) and Stirling (6.1%), with the latter now in play because of the retirement of the incumbent MP Michael Keenan.

Both sides expect the result in these three seats will come down to the wire.

The attorney general, Christian Porter, who holds Pearce, is fending off a challenge from Labor’s Kim Travers, a police superintendent who is being supported by the party’s left faction.

Porter, who has been touted as a possible future leader of the Liberal party, has lifted his game in the past 12 months, running what both sides acknowledge has been an effective marginal seat campaign. Travers’ campaign is also said to lack the resources that have been deployed behind Beazley, making her tilt at the seat more difficult.

Demographics, however, have been working against Porter, with his semi-rural and conservative seat becoming more suburban, encompassing the booming suburbs around Mindarie and Ellenbrook.

In Hasluck, the MP Ken Wyatt is also seen as a well-regarded local member, but his slight margin makes him vulnerable in the event of a national swing against the government. Labor’s campaign in Hasluck, however, has been less organised and less resourced than others in the state after its originally preselected candidate quit.

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WA Liberals are confident of sandbagging Pearce, but remain nervous about Stirling, Swan and Hasluck.

Morrison, who has been spruiking his role in delivering GST reform and a $4.7bn bonanza to the state, used this week’s visit to campaign in Swan and the Labor-held marginal seat of Cowan, which the Coalition is targeting as a potential gain in the state.

Labor is unconcerned about its hold on Cowan. While it is on the party’s “watch list”, it believes the incumbent, Anne Aly, will be comfortably returned on Saturday.

The government is expected to ramp up the pressure on Labor about the potential hit to house prices and rents under the opposition’s proposed negative gearing changes, a message that will resonate in the state where house prices have fallen more than 15% in some places since 2013.

Geeing up the party faithful on Monday night, Morrison warned that Shorten would further dampen confidence in the state, where he says his message of “aspiration” is well understood.

“Bill Shorten in Canberra (will be) reaching over with his big tentacle of tax into Western Australia and ripping the opportunity away from West Australians just as they are getting back on their feet,” he said.

Both sides agree that in the battle for the west, they are in for the fight of their lives.