MEXICO CITY  Can Speaker Pelosi afford to President Trump a victory as the country enters a presidential election year? Can she afford not to? Those are the questions here after the House Ways and Means chairman, Richard Neal, told reporters Wednesday that the time is now for finishing a new North American trade pact currently stuck on the 2½ yard line.

Can Mrs. Pelosi, currently swept up in the impeachment riptide, defy her trade union supporters? Can she risk losing party voters that see benefits in the deal the United States, Mexico and Canada signed a year ago?

To date, Democrats have played it all too safe. Arguing she can walk (impeach) and chew gum (legislate) at the same time, Ms. Pelosi managed to push the United States Mexico Canada Agreement to the back burner of the daily news frenzy and delay a ratification vote that she knows will pass with a handsome majority. Now she risks more than leading a do nothing Congress. The continents economy is at stake.

In a letter last month, President Lopez Obrador begged Mrs. Pelosi to schedule a vote that would start USMCAs ratification. Its in the interest of the three peoples, the three nations, that this deal is approved, he said.

AMLO, as the leftist president is widely known here, blames uncertainty surrounding the pact (and, by inference, Mrs. Pelosis delays) for Mexicos no-growth economy. The hope here is that were America to ratify USMCA, commerce and foreign investments will pour in, ending the countrys economic stagnation.

Those hopes may be overblown. The Mexican business sector is convinced that lack of foreign investment is due to the United States Congresss failure to ratify USMCA, says one Mexico City-based consultant, Andres Rozental. In truth, he says, lack of investment is due to internal issues.

Rising crime and weak law enforcement scare foreign investors, as have fears that AMLO, a socialist, would nationalize major industries. Yet USMCA approval could, at least temporarily, put such fears to rest. Conversely, no deal with Canada and America would sink the Mexican economy, create more havoc, and allow AMLOs extremist advisors to steer him toward a ruinous path modeled on Castro and Chavez.

Mexico ratified USMCA shortly after AMLO signed, with Prime Minister Trudeau and President Trump, late last year at Buenos Aires. Canada is expected to ratify the pact as soon as America does. So its been up to Ms. Pelosi and House Democrats, who keep coming up with new demands and oddly onerous amendments.

One of those, made under pressure from unions headed by AFL-CIO chief Richard Trumka, a vocal USMCA opponent, demands surprise American inspections of Mexican factories to assure labor conditions are adequate. It was rejected as a non-starter by Mexican negotiators. Such a demand of an ally is more onerous than the United Nations inspections of Iranian atomic facilities to which President Obama agreed in the nucular deal.

AMLO may agree to another demand, a $15 minimum wage in Mexican car factories. Hed delay such drastic raise to the future, long after his presidency would be over.

Yet another demand, made under pressure from American internet firms, is about on-line protections that exist in America but not in Mexico or Canada. Another, made by Big Pharma, would extend mandatory data protections before generic drugs could be approved.

Congressional Democrats eagerly embrace each of these demands as roadblocks for ratification. Now, unless all obstacles are removed by the end of this week, its doubtful America will ratify USMCA this year.

Mr. Trump has long promised to replace NAFTA, which hes termed a horrible deal, with a pact that better benefits America. In reality USMCA is not all that different from its predecessor. NAFTA, though, was signed before the dawn of the internet age and was due for a major overhaul.

What if Congress fails to ratify it? Mr. Trump has hinted hed drop out of NAFTA, which is still on the books. Commerce with Americas two immediate neighbors, which together are also our largest trading partners, would become expensive and onerous. Jobs would be lost and growth would slow.

Meanwhile, as Mexicos fragile economy sinks even further, Democrats can be expected to accuse Mr. Trump of failing to help an American ally. Mexicans have already recoiled from Mr. Trump for his insulting language that has triggered anti Mexican emotion in parts of America. In this case, though, he would be right to place the blame where it belongs  at Ms. Pelosis doorstep.

________

Twitter @bennyavni