Premier rules out prospect of governing in minority if his party loses more than two seats

This article is more than 2 years old

This article is more than 2 years old

Tasmanian premier Will Hodgman has called a state election for 3 March, with a proposal to scrap poker machines from pubs, fights over salmon farming, and tourist development in wilderness areas expected to be the leading issues.

Hodgman visited governor Kate Warner to prorogue parliament on Sunday morning, leaving just 34 days to campaign before the state goes to the polls.

“I believe fundamentally that Tasmanians trust me and my team to deliver on what we promised,” he said at a press conference announcing the election on Sunday. “We have a strong plan for our state’s future. This will be a crucial election because if you change government, you change the direction of our state.”

Jacquelin (@jacquelinrobson) The Premier @WillHodgman arrives at Government House to call an election for March 3. Set to make official announcement at New Norfolk at 10:30 @SXNewsTas #politas pic.twitter.com/JhQU1OzfkT

Hodgman’s Liberal Party goes into the election with 15 of 25 seats in the House of Assembly, and needs to retain 13 seats to govern in its own right.

He has ruled out the prospect of governing in minority if it loses more than two seats, telling reporters: “We will govern alone or not at all.”

“Our job being the one political party that can deliver majority government, the one political party that believes in it,” Hodgman said. “It’s Labor and the Greens who formed a coalition in the past and that was not good for our state.”

Labor, which holds seven seats, is being led by 34-year-old Rebecca White, who has pledged to phase out poker machines from Tasmanian pubs and clubs within five years.

Rebecca White (@bec_white) It’s on! Let’s win this @TasmanianLabor and give Tasmanians a Government they can be proud of, that prioritises fixing the health system and puts people first #politas

Labor is also campaigning on health, education, and renewable energy.



Recent polls have varied wildly, but even on those most favourable to the government it appears at risk of not retaining the necessary 13 seats, raising the prospect of a minority government, but there is wide variation between recent polls.



Scrapping pokies in Tasmania risks ‘hundreds of jobs’, hospitality industry claims Read more

Tasmanian election analyst Kevin Bonham says polls are predicting swings of between nine and 17% away from the Hodgman Liberal government, which won power from the long-serving Labor government with a 12.2% swing in 2014.

The most recent poll, conducted by MediaReach in mid January, found that 41.1% of the 3,000 respondents indicated they would vote for the Liberal party, with 34.3% for Labor, 12.8% for the Greens, and 6.1% for the new, untested, Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN).

Lambie, who quit her Senate position under the dual citizenship saga, formed the party after splitting from the Palmer United Party in 2015.

Hodgman has explicitly ruled out forming a deal with JLN, in addition to the longstanding opposition to relying on the Greens to guarantee supply.

On the MediaReach figures, Liberal strategists told the ABC, the Liberal party might hold on to 14 seats.

But a poll of 1,000 people by Tasmanian company Enterprise Marketing and Research Services in December had Labor and the Liberal party locked on 34% of the primary vote, with 17% for the Greens and 8% for JLN.

Even if the swing is on the lower end of what is predicted, Bonham said, it would mean the Liberal party was likely to lose its third seat in Franklin, Hodgman’s electorate, and fourth seat in Braddon, the large electorate on the northwest coast.

Tasmania operates under the Hare-Clark system, with five MPs for each of the state’s five electorates.

Governing in minority is not uncommon in Tasmania’s political history but the backlash against the most recent minority government — the Bartlett/Giddings Labor government, which held power with the held of five Greens MPs, two of which were made cabinet ministers — has seen both sides vow to never do it again.

South Australia is also holding a state election on 17 March.