Donald Trump will win the GOP presidential nomination and pick Mike Huckabee as his running mate. The FBI will file criminal charges related to Hillary Clinton’s use of a home-brew email server as secretary of state. A Ted Cruz-Nikki Haley GOP ticket will defeat a Hillary Clinton-Tim Kaine Democratic ticket to claim the White House.

These are just a handful of 2016 predictions from members of The POLITICO Caucus — a collection of the top activists, strategists and operatives in the first four states that will cast ballots next year.


For a special New Year’s edition of The POLITICO Caucus, insiders were asked both for a bold 2016 prediction — and also what surprised them most in 2015.

The vast majority chose Trump, the brash New York real-estate tycoon who has stayed at or near the top of the GOP presidential pack since entering the race in June, as the biggest surprise.

“Donald Trump! I wake up every day thinking, ‘This is it! He will drop in the polls!’” one New Hampshire Republican said. “But every day I am disappointed. I want to trust the voters, but this is scary.”

But when that Republican — who, like all respondents, submitted their answers anonymously — was asked to make a prediction for the new year, wishful thinking won out.

“Donald Trump WILL NOT be the Republican candidate for president,” the Republican said. “Obviously I am a hopeless romantic.”

A number of GOP insiders also said they were surprised by Trump — but blamed the news media for enabling his rise by giving him virtually unfettered coverage.

“The desperation of the media to chase ratings and give unprecedented free airtime to Trump, with little or no attempt to scrutinize his record, his statements, his flip-flopping, or his shady track record,” one New Hampshire Republican said. “Collectively, the media should be embarrassed.”

“That the media obsession with all things Trump would not have subsided by now as the nomination process becomes more serious,” added an Iowa Republican. “There is a ratings rationale that has befallen this campaign at a serious detriment to the voters and the early states in particular.”

While the majority of Republicans chose Trump’s rise, a number of insiders were surprised by who didn’t gain traction — namely former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush — who is mired in the low-to-mid single digits in national polls despite a large war chest and high name recognition. Bush announced this week his campaign was retrenching in the early states, especially New Hampshire.

“The absolute collapse of the Bush dynasty,” said one Iowa Republican. “The collapse of Jeb Bush,” echoed a New Hampshire Republican.

Confronted with a smaller field and a less competitive race, most Democrats chose a development in the GOP race as their biggest surprise, with some also saying they were surprised by Bush’s poor numbers.

“I can't believe how poorly Jeb Bush is polling after spending millions in ad buys. Voters clearly don't care for the guy,” said a South Carolina Democrat. “Barbara Bush appears to have been correct: There have been too many Bushes.”

Bush wasn't the only governor whose sluggish performance raised eyebrows — some Republicans were confounded by the lack of support for candidates like Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, both of whom aborted their campaigns in 2015.

“A close second [to Trump] is that the governors with their successes and experiences have not translated those assets into support with the electorate the way most had predicted in the beginning,” said one New Hampshire Republican.

Among the Democrats who were surprised by something on their side of the aisle, one Iowan picked the fact that independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders “ran as a Democrat.” A Nevada Democrat chose Sanders’ “grass-roots support not wavering and instead building and creating a distinct challenge to the Clinton campaign.”

While the list of surprises was fairly limited, the bold predictions for the new year were more varied — and creative.

One Iowa Republican offered a quasi-apocalyptic prediction: “The Beltway chattering class gets back from the holidays and the first week of January they are in meltdown panic mode with one question: What in the world are we going to do with Trump? Until now he's been an illusion. He's been off their radar. Why? Name one presidential candidate who has spent less time in D.C. Has he been there at all? And yet they went home and everywhere they went — their family, childhood friends, shopkeepers and restaurant servers — all of them brought up Trump. There were no other candidates discussed. And now, they come back to reality, talk to each other, and everyone heard the same thing at their respective hometowns, in all 50 states. The question is: What now? And nobody will have the answer.”

“Cruz will fail to win Iowa, opening the door to Trump sweeping all four early states,” predicted another Iowa Republican.

But many Republicans — and some Democrats — are still convinced Trump will flame out. And soon.

“Trump will not have a victory after the first four states and will exit the race,” a Nevada Republican predicted.

“Donald Trump fails to win any of the four early states, showing he's nothing but a big loser. He then throws a temper tantrum against all of America and moves to Russia, because Putin loves him, and builds a big beautiful wall around his new dacha, which is huge,” a New Hampshire Democrat joked.

“When Trump begins losing contests — starting with Iowa — he will begin to unravel quickly,” an Iowa Republican suggested.

Some see a post-Trump GOP race as a confrontation waiting to happen between Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

“The GOP nomination fight will come down to a slugfest for the soul of the party between two young Cuban-Americans,” said a South Carolina Republican.

“The Republican primary season will not be as entertaining as the run-up has been,” a Nevada Republican suggested. “The establishment will rally behind Marco Rubio and he'll do better than expected in Iowa, which puts him in a better position for New Hampshire. South Carolina and Nevada will provide opportunities for wins. Cruz will fight back in the March 1st states, but the die will have been cast.”

“The establishment rallies around Rubio, Trump fades, and it becomes a Rubio-Cruz race,” a South Carolina Democrat agreed. “Rubio emerges as a damaged nominee after a long slog, and loses to Clinton in a close race.”

A Nevada Democrat gave Cruz the edge in that scenario: “He wins Iowa, gets a respectable third in New Hampshire, takes second in Nevada, and wins South Carolina. By winning Iowa/South Carolina, he'll have all the momentum going into the SEC Primary on March 1st because the winners of New Hampshire and Nevada will not be the same person.”

Some insiders used their 2016 predictions to forecast possible running mates for the eventual nominees.

Clinton “will select Tom Vilsack as her running mate,” one Iowa Democrat suggested, naming the former Iowa governor and current Obama administration agriculture secretary as a VP contender.

An Iowa Republican tried to pick both tickets, suggesting South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine as potential veepstakes winners. “Cruz-Haley beats Clinton-Kaine for the presidency,” said the Republican.

One Nevada Democrat jokingly predicted 2016 would bring confirmation of a long-running Republican conspiracy theory: That Trump is a Democratic plant who is destroying the GOP from the inside: “Trump picks Bill Clinton to be his vice president, confirming the two were co-conspirators all along.”

And, in a prediction apolitical but no less bold, a South Carolina Democrat bypassed Trump, Clinton and everything else and said 2016 would bring the end of a 108-year curse: “The Cubs [will] win the World Series.”

These are the members of the POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this year-end special survey:

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

South Carolina: Andrew Collins, Antjuan Seawright, Barry Wynn, Bob McAlister, Boyd Brown, Brady Quirk-Garvan, Bruce Haynes, Catherine Templeton, Chad Connelly, Chip Felkel, Cindy Costa, Clay Middleton, David Wilkins, Dick Harpootlian, Donna Hicks, Drea Byars, Ed McMullen, Elizabeth Colbert-Busch, Ellen Weaver, Erin McKee, Glenn McCall, Inez Tenenbaum, Isaiah Nelson, Jaime R. Harrison, James Smith, Jason Perkey, Jay W. Ragley, Jim Hodges, Jimmy Williams, Joe Erwin, Joel Sawyer, John Brisini, Kevin Bishop, Kim Wellman, Laurin Manning, Le Frye, Luke Byars, Matt Moore, Mikee Johnson, Morgan Allison, Nse' Ekpo, Phil Noble, Scott Farmer, Tony Denny, Trey Walker, Tyler Jones, Walter Whetsell, Warren Tompkins, Will Folks

Nevada: Adam Khan, Andres Ramirez, Andrew Diss, Barbara Buckley, Bob Cavazos, Brendan Summers, Chip Evans, Chuck Muth, Dan Hart, Daniel Stewart, Ed Williams, Emmy Ruiz, Erven T. Nelson, Greg Bailor, Heidi Wixom, Jack St. Martin, James Smack, Jay Gertsema, Jeremy Hughes, Jim DeGraffenreid, Jon Ralston, Kristen Orthman, Laura Martin, Linda Cavazos, Lindsey Jydstrup, Mac Abrams, Mari St. Martin, Marla Turner, Megan Jones, Michael McDonald, Michelle White, Mike Slanker, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Oscar Goodman, Pat Hickey, Paul Smith, Pete Ernaut, Peter Koltak, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Roberta Lange, Ryan Erwin, Ryan Hamilton, Sam Lieberman, Scott Scheid, Yvanna Cancela, Zach Hudson

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.