Back in February's GOP Cattle Call, Trapper John wrote:

See, here's the problem. There's this trend in Republican primary campaigns, identified by jimsaco in the December Cattle Call, where the Establishment Candidate -- the guy who has the money and the institutional backing -- always wins the nomination, no matter how bleak his chances appear at any given time. Jimsaco dates the trend back to Dewey in '44, and it holds up reasonably well -- with the possible exception of '52, when Ike beat out Taft, and the more concrete exception of '64, when Goldwater upset Rocky.

What we'll call the "Establishment Candidate theory" has certainly held true since 1980, when Reagan entered the race with friends and momentum from '76 and plenty of money, and ended up fairly cruising to victory in Detroit. In '88, Poppy Bush overcame Reagan-era scandals, his own inadequacies as a candidate, a well-funded, well-run challenge from Bob Dole, and disillusionment among the hard right cadres to win the nomination -- in what probably is the premier example of the predictive value of the Establishment Candidate theory. In '96, it was Dole's Turn, and he had all the institutional backing he needed (especially after the flameout of his potential rival for the Establishment nod, Phil Gramm -- more on Gramm later) to earn the right to lose badly to Clinton. And in the year 2000, W was in the lead from the get-go -- check out the polls from as early as late '98, when Bush was just crushing the field -- and bested an inspired McCain campaign due in large part to his institutional support throughout the country (but especially in the state party in SC).

In 2008, John McCain is most definitely the Establishment Candidate, despite the hoary media narrative of "McCain the Maverick." He's wrapped up the lion's share of Bush Pioneers and Rangers, he's the only candidate to have obtained the services of any of the top-level Bush-Cheney operatives (including media guru Mark McKinnon and former BC'04 political director Terry Nelson), and he's obtained support from scores of the state party operatives who were so critical in saving Bush's bacon in 2000. In short, he's inherited the institutional mantle from his former rival, Bush. And he did it while keeping his "independent" street cred. Now, that famed maverick label is beginning to fade, especially in light of Bush's decision to adopt McCain's doomed escalation proposal -- but in a normal year, that'd be OK. Because history tells us that being the Establishment Candidate means that you win the nomination. And as Herm Edwards reminded us, you play to win the game, not to be the martyred maverick.

So on one hand, the Establishment Candidate theory should dictate that McCain is the nominee, in spite of the fact that 1) substantial elements of the base dislike him, 2) he's going to be identified with the Iraq disaster more than any other GOP candidate, and 3) his support is cratering. After all, Poppy Bush went through some tough times -- finishing behind Pat Robertson in Iowa! -- but being the Establishment Candidate saved it for him. And yet . . . one can't help but notice that 1) substantial elements of the base dislike McCain, 2) he's going to be identified with the Iraq disaster more than any other GOP candidate, and 3) his support is cratering. And it may be early enough that the GOP establishment, loyal as it tends to be, decides that McCain -- who never was really one of theirs -- is dead meat, and that it's time to stake another worthy. That was, to some degree, the case in '96 -- when Phil Gramm (a McCain supporter this time) lost the mantle of the Establishment Candidate to Dole early on, after it became apparent that Gramm was going nowhere.