“There’s no point pretending that we haven’t had a few ups and downs and haven’t been behind in the polls.” Mr Howard said that any politician who says he or she never looks at the polls is “having you on” and the latest results showed the government was improving its chances of success. “I used to look at Newspoll and any others that were going and I still look at them,” he said. “And the most arresting thing to me about those polls is the depressed level of the Labor primary vote.” Mr Howard told the audience that the last three changes of government – in 1996, 2007 and 2013 – had all occurred when the Opposition had lifted its primary vote to the “middle forties” in percentage terms.

The last Fairfax/Ipsos poll, conducted in the days after the May budget, showed the Labor primary vote was 37 per cent, up two percentage points from the last election. This was ahead of the Coalition primary vote of 36 per cent. Loading The last Newspoll, at the end of May, showed Labor had a primary vote of 38 per cent compared to a Coalition primary vote of 38 per cent. The Coalition primary vote was about 42 per cent at the last election. The next Newspoll is expected on Monday, when parliament resumes for two weeks and the government aims to put its income tax cuts and company tax cuts to a vote, while also trying to secure the passage of foreign interference laws. “Now, of course, when a government goes through a period of unpopularity, as any government does, the primary vote of the government is depressed,” Mr Howard said.

“Obviously our primary vote is lower than we’d like it to be. “But the arresting thing to me is despite all of that, the Labor primary vote is stuck below 40 per cent for a very long time. “And that is a salutary reminder of a mood in the electorate that although there may be irritation and disappointment with us, there is no enthusiasm for the replacement – no enthusiasm at all. “And I think that is an important thing that we can build on.” In an address that reflected on the speeches of his political career, Mr Howard pointedly praised key colleagues including Craig Kelly, the Liberal MP for Hughes in southern Sydney who is facing a preselection challenge from Kent Johns, a leader of the moderate wing of the party.