Ontario retail cannabis privatization details could be released as early as today, according to chatter we’re hearing on social media. Long investors will be hoping the announcement can spark the bid and stem the ongoing price hemorrhaging in the sector, which has accelerated this session.

According to Deepak Anand, the V.P of Business Development & Government Relations at Cannabis Compliance Inc., an announcement on Cannabis retail in Ontario could be released after the bell. Presumably, such an individual is plugged-in to the inner plumbings of both the Ontario cannabis industry, and officials which regulate it. Separate social media sources are claiming the same thing.

Hearing rumours of an announcement on #Cannabis retail from Ontario (after markets close today). https://t.co/cS42bI7Zae — Deepak Anand (@_deepakanand) August 13, 2018

However, there is a giant caveat next to the front-running of rumors. As of now, the Ontario government has not put out an official advisory, meaning that the above claims above may be slightly ahead of its time. The provincial government almost always telegraphs its dissemination campaigns like clockwork in order to achieve maximum public relations effect. How will the media know where to show up and cover the story if there’s no official presser time?

Whether details are disseminated this afternoon or not, the information should be made publicly available soon. As reported by the mainstream press, the Ontario government will reportedly allow private stores to sell marijuana once recreational cannabis becomes legal on October 17th. Sources have stated that Doug Ford—a staunch privatization supporter—looks to steer the industry towards the Alberta model. That is, government will control online sales and regulate distribution/wholesale in the private brick & mortar retail channel.

As an actual market catalyst, I believe the broad effect will be muted. It’s unlikely aggregate net sales will be impacted too drastically, irrespective of whether cannabis is supplied privately or through government-controlled stores.

The biggest impact—depending on the rules of course—may be witnessed in select junior LPs with branding appeal (i.e. Newstrike Brands Ltd.) or franchise-based operators (i.e. Inner Spirit Holdings Ltd.), and illegal dispensaries. The new rules could impact how certain brands are displayed, marketing allowances in-stores, outlet competition and price variance.

Midas Letter will have further coverage on this event—whenever it transpires—as material events warrant.

Update:

The Globe & Mail is reporting that the sale of recreational cannabis to private retailers won’t begin until next spring, at the earliest. The target launch date is set for April 2019, for in-store sales, according to the sources.

Update #2:

The Ontario government will make an announcement on the matter at 4:00pm EST today. Hats off to Deepak Anand for correctly breaking the story.