Idlib, capital of Syrian rebellion, is one of the most politically unstable places in the world. Syrian rebel factions aren’t united under one flag. They’re divided into 2 main camps. One is ruled by Syrian branch of al-Qaeda(now under the name of HTS) and the other by Ahrar Al Sham, which is politically&militarily backed by Turkey. There always have been some tensions between these two, but after the rebels’ failed offensive in Hama in march of 2017 those tensions escalated. HTS claimed that the Hama offensive failed because of Ahrar treason and also accused Ahrar of plotting with Euphrates Shield&Turkey against Syrian Rebellion. On the other side Turkey started to exert pressure on Ahrar to destroy HTS and become the sole ruler of whole Idlib province. Situation in Idlib province is even more complicated, because there are still many IS sleeper cells which, from time to time, bomb both Ahrar and HTS HQ’s. These attacks also doesn’t help to build friendly relations between HTS and Ahar as they accuse one another for these bombings.

In january 2017 fights broke out between HTS and Ahrar, but they were limited to only few cities in Idlib province. The peace was quickly agreed upon, but both sides knew that the fights will soon be resumed. The main result of this january clashes was that many minor groups had to make a choice between supporting Ahrar or HTS, so the political situation in Idlib province started to crystallize.

In early July of 2017 fights broke out once again, but only one faction was prepared for it and it was HTS. Jihadists quickly took many strategic points overlooking vital Ahrar Ash Sham positions. For example HTS took control of a mountain area that overlooks Bab Al Hawa border crossing which is one of main supply routes for Ahrar.

On the 16th July the HTS and Ahrar made peace, which was done thanks to Sheikh Muhaysini mediations, but the peace didn’t last even for 48 as fights broke out once again. These time it is a all-out war.

In a swift offensive HTS took control of Sarabiq, Isqat and Salqin, Sarmada, Aldana, Harem. Ahrar seems to be unable to launch a counterattack against HTS and was only able to stop HTS advance in Zawiyah mountains.

Taking control of Sarabiq is really a huge success for HTS. This town has an enormous strategic value. It is located right next to M5 highway and thus it is used to deliver supplies from Idlib to Aleppo countryside and from Idlib to Hama countryside. Probably there are also many weapon storages in the city itself. However on 21st July inhabitants of Sarabiq started riots against HTS. They were able to capture few points within the city walls. Some pro-rebel activists claim that HTS fled the city, but the situation in Sarabiq is still unclear and we have to wait for more news from that region.

Meanwhile in the north HTS took control of Al Dana and Sarmada. By this move Bab Al Hawa crossing is encircled and Turkey cannot longer deliver equipment to Ahrar. One can say that Turkey can simply deliver supplies by other routes. Yes, it’s true, but Bab Al Hawa crossing is the most convenient option. Anyway HTS is aware of that danger and this is why they seized towns of Isqat, Salqin and Harem which are located south-west from Bab Al Hawa crossing, also near Turkish border.

Meanwhile some Ahrar’s fighters(e.g. Ahrar Mariyaan) defected and joined HTS. On the other side Nour Al Zinki broke it ties with HTS but it didn’t yet claimed its support for Ahrar.

Ahrar found themselves in a really bad situation and thus on 20th July they issued a peace offer, but HTS refused to sign peace and stated that only merging these two factions in one force can end up the fights.

There are also some rumors that Turkey is planning large-scale operation in Idlib to aid Ahrar forces which are clearly losing the fight in Idlib province, but it may be just a hoax. However there are verified reports that some fighter from Euphrates Shield arrived near Bab Al Hawa crossing and are ready to aid Ahrar.

It seems that final confrontation between HTS and Ahrar is imminent.

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