The Survivor host makes his predictions for the season ahead (CBS) And so it comes down to this: Jeff Probst, hours removed from the marooning, sitting across from me in an office at the Survivor: Cambodia — Second Chance base camp, about to predict which one of the 20 contestants will be a millionaire in 39 days time — and I’m about to predict the same. Twenty-four hours earlier, I competed in my very first Survivor challenge. A little bit longer ago than that, I wrapped up my chat with Joe Anglim, the last of the Second Chancers I interviewed at Ponderosa. The cabana and the oscillating fan are things of the past. Now, it’s time to focus on the road ahead and put all the information I’ve gained across the past day and a half to the test. Now, it’s time to see if I can predict the future more accurately than the man who has lived and breathed Survivor every single day since the show began. No pressure. Over the next several minutes, Jeff and I participate in a head-to-head Survivor fantasy draft, picking players for specific categories. We will earn a point for whoever goes further in a given category. Whoever drafts the winner of the season earns three points for that spot. If our winner pick is the winner of the season, an additional three points are awarded — so, six points for that spot. There are 15 potential points in play, in other words, and we’ll find out which of us won at some point in December when Second Chance ends — or, potentially, much sooner than that, if it’s a blow out. The categories for the draft are: Winner Pick: The player who will win this season.

Challenge Beast: Someone with a reputation for his or her challenge prowess.

The Strategist: Players known for his or her strategic aptitude.

The Black Widow: In honor of Parvati Shallow, who is on location; this is a player who might be underrated or not so front-of-mind from her first season, and can therefore sneak her way to the top.

The Old Schooler: Either a player from an earlier era of Survivor, or a newer player who has that old school mindset.

Under The Radar: Someone entering Second Chance aiming to play an undetectable game.

Wildcard: A player who is completely unpredictable at this point in time.

Two Utility Spots: The two players who could potentially fit in most of those categories for any number of reasons, people who are strong in the clutch.

The Bench: The final two picks of the draft by default. I’ll admit that as the draft wears on, it feels more and more like the positions become a little bit arbitrary, but such is Survivor! You make your own rules as you go. Also, I don’t know sports, so this is an odd idea from the outset. But! I feel like I know Survivor well enough to hold my own. Let’s find out if I’m right. With that, read on for the full draft, beginning with our predictions for who will take the million… ON THE NEXT PAGE: The Winner Picks

THE WINNER PICK PROBST: For my winner, I’m going to take CIERA. WIGLER: No! That was my pick! PROBST: Really? WIGLER: Yeah! I’m curious to hear why you picked Ciera. PROBST: It’s very hard to pick a winner. And good news for you — I’ve never been right. WIGLER: That’s bad news for Ciera! PROBST: There’s a good 15 people here that I feel could win this game, easily. I like Ciera because I think she’s an underdog. I think people underestimate her, even though she just showed them what she’s willing to do. I think people are still going, “Yeah, but that’s because of her mom.” I don’t see that. I never saw that. I always saw Ciera as someone who was going to warm up and take a while and then she showed us, “I’m willing to vote my mom out. I’m willing to make big moves. I’m willing to draw rocks.” You tell me what’s wrong with that game. Ciera is my winner. WIGLER: When I talked to her, she was very fierce, fired up, and ready to go. She was talking about wanting to be one of those people who makes that close alliance of two on day one. Those are the people who get to the end — your Malcolms and Denises, your Cochrans and Dawns of the world. She wants to find that. She’s looking for that. Some of the people she was talking about are on her tribe, like Fishbach. He’s someone she was talking about. That could be interesting. I will go elsewhere, and I will stay with her season. I’ll go with… WIGLER: I’ll go with VYTAS. I’ll pick Vytas as my winner pick. I would have picked Ciera… PROBST: Wow. Interesting. WIGLER: …yeah, Vytas is my backup. I didn’t think you would take Ciera! But I like Vytas. I think he’s obviously super clever. He has that bad boy image that was shown on Blood vs Water, but he’s coming into this talking about being a new father and how that’s changed him — which is authentic, but it’s a tool. PROBST: Right. WIGLER: The fact that he has that moral flexibility, while not losing some of what makes Vytas such a cunning and manipulative player, but also a good, emotional guy… I think that’s the attitude I would want. The danger with Vytas is that I think people could see through that. ON THE NEXT PAGE: The Challenge Beast

THE CHALLENGE BEAST WIGLER: In terms of who I think will go far… I will pick TERRY. I’ll go with Deitz. I think Terry is here feeling like he has something to prove with his social and strategic game. He’s obviously a proven talent on the field. I think based on his tribe makeup, he’s sitting with people he can work with and people who like him. I like Terry. I don’t know if he can win, but I think he can go far. PROBST: That’s probably who I was going to pick. I think Terry is still super physical. WIGLER: He looks great without a shirt right now! PROBST: Does he? WIGLER: He does! He looks jacked! PROBST: It’s amazing. The guy is fit. Alright, you have Terry. The only question is if he lasts long enough. But if he lasts long enough, he’s going to be tough to beat. I’m going to go with… hmm… man… this is tough. What’s the criteria for getting points? WIGLER: Whichever contestant goes further, head-to-head. PROBST: Right. Okay, then I’m going to go… PROBST: …with TASHA. She’s good. She’s smart. She’s a real hustler. I think sometimes it’s just that little extra bit of, “I need to prove this to myself,” that gets you over the hump. I think Tasha could definitely do well in challenges. WIGLER: She kicked butt on Cagayan. She looks like she still has it. She has Wiglesworth out here, too, who might be a motivator. She was close to matching Kelly’s immunity win record on Cagayan, so let’s see if she’s going to go for the title. ON THE NEXT PAGE: The Strategist

THE STRATEGIST PROBST: I’m going to go with VARNER. WIGLER: I am sad that you have Varner and I don’t. What do you like about him this time, so many years after he played? PROBST: The thing about Varner is he’s super uncomfortable with how he looks physically, but he’ll be the first person to take off his shirt and just get it over with. I love that, because that tells me he’s going to let go of his ego, and not waste any time worrying about that stuff — and then he’ll be really freed up to observe. He’s a great observer. If I was in an alliance with Jeff and he said, “Here’s what I think we should do,” I would be very inclined to just say, “Okay!” WIGLER: People like him, too. PROBST: They do! WIGLER: I think people are excited to see Jeff Varner here, and I don’t know if they remember that he’s the guy retching at Tina Wesson in the food challenge. PROBST: He’s a villain! WIGLER: And I don’t know if people remember him that way! That could be to his advantage. That could be really good. WIGLER: I’m picking FISHBACH. Obviously he knows the game super well. He’s written about it, he has podcasted about it, he’s been commentating about Survivor for years. I think that makes him dangerous in terms of how people look at Stephen, but everyone has baggage coming into this game. PROBST: My one thing with Fishbach is that if I was in an alliance, I would say to him, “You have to not react. Think about these things before we do them.” He’s so smart and he’s thinking all the time, but sometimes on Survivor, you do have to hedge your bet for a minute. “I think my move is this, but I need to think for a second.” I’d be concerned he might make a fast move. WIGLER: From talking to people, it seems like half of this cast wants to work with him, and half of the cast wants him out first. PROBST: Interesting. WIGLER: He’s on a tribe with a good mix of that half. He’s in a spot where it could go a few different ways. ON THE NEXT PAGE: The Black Widow

THE BLACK WIDOW WIGLER: I will pick a Black Widow, in honor of Parvati, who is on location with us, and I will take MONICA. PROBST: Okay. You can have her. WIGLER: You don’t like Monica? PROBST: I do like Monica! I put her on the list! But I don’t think … and she’s going to hate me when she hears what I’m saying about her. I think Monica is a Black Widow for sure, but I think she has a lot of competition this time. I think typically a girl like Monica is the one in the room that everyone’s talking to. Everyone wants to know Monica. But she has some other people here that are going to vie for people’s attention. So I’m going to go with… PROBST: …my Black Widow is going to be KELLY WIGLESWORTH, and I think she’s going to do it in a way that no one sees coming. She’s not the 23-year-old strutting around in her bikini. She’s the mom who has figured out, “I have more than sex appeal to use. I’m going to play low and bury somebody.” WIGLER: Do you think that she’s ready for the speed of the game? PROBST: I don’t know. WIGLER: When I talked to her, she was very zen. I asked her how she feels the game has changed, and she feels the game hasn’t changed much. “Pick an alliance and stick with it.” Is she gaming me, or does she believe that? PROBST: I don’t know! That’s my big question with her, is her disconnect with television, pop culture and Survivor. It’s either really appealing or a massive liability. ON THE NEXT PAGE: The Old Schooler

THE OLD SCHOOLER WIGLER: You get the first pick here, Jeff, and I would say that this could be someone who is from the old school era of Survivor or somebody who you think will play with an old school mentality, someone cut from the days when Survivor was simpler. PROBST: Well, my old schooler is SAVAGE. WIGLER: You love Andrew Savage. PROBST: I do! I do. We were friendly years ago when he lived in L.A., and then he moved. I still adore him and his family, but I don’t see him nearly as much. I am concerned that he’s overplaying it a bit out of the gate. WIGLER: In what way? PROBST: Well, I feel like… the question I have with Savage is, if he comes in with his positive attitude that he has normally in life, he’s a massive threat. If he comes in thinking, “Man, this game has haunted me for 12 years,” then I think people will say, “Dude, you have to get over that.” It may be too late. I don’t know what’s happening on the beach right now, but that’s the big question I have with him. WIGLER: When I was talking with him, I mentioned Pearl Islands, and he said something to the effect of, “I’m not even thinking about Pearl Islands. It’s out of my mind.” PROBST: Good. WIGLER: But then! The more and more we started talking, the more he started talking about his time on the Morgan tribe — how he wasn’t paying attention to Ryan Shoulders, he wasn’t worried about how he sent Lillian out the door, and started talking more and more about his season. He says it’s out of his mind, but I don’t know how much it is. PROBST: Savage… I think the analogy I have for Savage is it’s like being on a date and talking about your old relationship. If he does that, he’s dead. If he doesn’t, then Savage is a charmer. He’s a challenge beast. He’s super smart strategically. I think he knows from last time that he has to make moves and he has to anticipate that anything could happen in this game, because it did the first time. WIGLER: So I’ll go with the approach with someone who I think plays an old school type of game… WIGLER: …and I’ll pick KEITH. PROBST: Yup! WIGLER: Is Keith going to outfox anybody? I don’t think so. And I don’t think he’s looking to do it. I think the lesson he took from San Juan del Sur is, “I was this close. I was right at the door. If I had gone through the door, I would’ve been the million dollar winner.” PROBST: And it’s true. He would’ve been. WIGLER: He’s a super nice guy and a super solid guy. I think his strategy this season is, “I want to get in an alliance,” and not, “I want to make an alliance.” PROBST: It’s a big difference. WIGLER: It’s not that he wants to idol anyone out of the game. If he gets in an alliance and he gets far enough… we’re looking at a bunch of alpha, strong challenge people, on the men and the women side. Don’t discount Keith! He was a challenge beast on San Juan del Sur. I don’t think he should be discounted here. PROBST: He’s a great swimmer. And I don’t discount him. ON THE NEXT PAGE: Under the Radar

UNDER THE RADAR WIGLER: I’m taking JEREMY. I don’t think he’s under the radar on most seasons, but I think he’s under the radar on this one. I think there are so many people who are so big and strong, so many leader types, and he’s on a tribe with at least one of them in Savage. I think Jeremy could fade away into the background a bit. I think that’s what he wants to do. He told me he’s lost some weight so that he looks weaker than people expect. He wants to appear to be the beta alpha male in the group of alpha males, so when the time comes that these alpha males are turning on each other, he’s the last one standing. PROBST: I’m so happy Jeremy is back. He’s one of my favorites. I felt for him, because I don’t think he ever recovered from sending his wife to Exile Island. He had to take her on in the first challenge, he had to beat her. That’s why the dilemma was so good. And he had no idea he was sending her off to live alone on an island. I believed his emotion was real, and that he was upset. Now, he can play without any burden. PROBST: That leads me to my dilemma of my under the radar pick… Wentworth or Abi… and I’m going to go with… PROBST: …ABI. I’m going to take Abi. WIGLER: When you think of Abi-Maria, do you think she’s under the radar because she’s so loud? PROBST: Yes. I think she’s smarter and more physical than we saw last time. I was really impressed when we met before the game. She’s a really good flirt, she’s really good at playing that card of, “I don’t understand. I don’t understand! It must be cultural.” You don’t know if she really does or not. If she gets in with the right group, she could be a part of the group until the end. If she doesn’t, then she’ll be out early, and I’ll lose this round. ON THE NEXT PAGE: The Wildcard

THE WILDCARD WIGLER: Alright, for The Wildcard, we’re picking someone unpredictable, someone you have no idea how they’re going to do or what they’re going to do. PROBST: I’m taking SPENCER. He’s really, really good. What makes him a wildcard is he could go a couple of different ways. He could come out of the gate as an alpha and say, “I’m making my own alliance this time. I’m going to be in charge.” Or, as you referenced, he could look around and say, “There are a lot of guys here who want to take charge. I’m going to play the same game. Hang back, try to hang in there, and then make my move.” I’m going to look at him as a wildcard, because I would definitely want to align with Spencer, and yet, I wouldn’t be sure how he’s going to play. WIGLER: He’s the youngest person out here by a lot. He’s 22 and the next youngest is 26. It’s an older cast. Will that play a role in how he does here? PROBST: I think Spencer, despite how much faith I have in him… I think of Spencer as a son who doesn’t want me as a father — but I still think he overrates himself a bit. WIGLER: I’ll take SHIRIN. PROBST: That’s a good choice. I get it. WIGLER: I think Shirin could be the first person voted out of her tribe, or she could be the last person standing. PROBST: I’m 100% with you. WIGLER: I think we saw it in Season 30. She has an irrepressible energy around Survivor. She’s such a fan of the game. She’s so happy to be here. If that’s curbed — if she can keep that in check, while still having that enthusiasm while playing the game — then she has a wealth of knowledge about how to play Survivor that, if applied correctly, could turn her into one of the greatest players who has ever played. I think that’s the upside for Shirin. The downside is that she’s too goofy for her tribe’s liking, and it could go the way of Worlds Apart. PROBST: I’m with you exactly on Shirin. It depends on how she starts the game. And she just came off of a weird season in which she was celebrated for undergoing this trauma. I think that’s a confusing thing to go through. She had a lot of support because a lot of people said, “Good for you for sticking up against someone who was picking on you.” That’s a complicated way to say, “I love you.” Shirin has to be able to divorce herself of that and say, “I’m here to play this game I love.” If she can do that, then I would align with her. But if she came in and said, “This last season, I had guys talking to me in a way that was not respectful,” I don’t want to play Survivor with that person right now, even though I respect what she went through. WIGLER: It’s also interesting, because while it’s been a long time since filming, there’s been almost no time since the finale. And it was an emotional, intense finale. PROBST: And that’s the question. Where’s her head? ON THE NEXT PAGE: The Utility Players

THE UTILITY PLAYERS WIGLER: These are people who could occupy a whole bunch of roles. I’ll start by taking KELLEY WENTWORTH. PROBST: I like Kelley. I believe she had more game in her the first time. I think she was in maybe the toughest spot anyone’s been in. Playing with your father, and your father’s a burden. And he was! Her dad’s a nice guy, but he’s not built for Survivor. He didn’t have the social game. What do you do when that’s your dad? If it’s your brother, like Vytas, you can just take your brother on and throw him under the bus. Kelley couldn’t do that to her dad. But now she doesn’t have that burden. I think even watching her campaign to get on the season, she’s a hustler. And physically, she looks phenomenal. She looks like she’s been working out. I think she has a great shot. I think Kelley is going to want to form her own alliance and run it. WIGLER: Alright, you get to take two picks, back-to-back… PROBST: I’ll take JOE and WOO. I don’t even have to explain these. Joe is literally your utility guy. “What do you want me to do, coach? Do you want me to win a challenge? Do you want me to charm somebody? Do you want me to fake an idol? Do you want me to swim? Do you want me to catch fish?” And Woo is almost the same, but he has a different approach. He can do a lot, but he does it with that bumbling, sort of fumbling thing of, “Oh, gee, I fell out of the coconut tree! Oh, gee, I stumbled!” But he has a spirit about him that’s so infectious that I like being around him. I probably underrate Woo in that I look at Woo and say, “What’s great about you is that you’ll win us challenges and then I’ll just get rid of you whenever I want.” But I have a feeling that Woo might surprise someone this year and blindside an alliance member and say, “I’m sorry, but I’m here to play on my terms.” WIGLER: Tell me more about Joe. He played so recently, is so beloved by fans, went out of the game around the middle of the season, and fans still voted him on with what I assume was an overwhelming margin. He’s one of a few people I assume was a lock to make it on. Is that a target at all, his “Joey Amazing” reputation? PROBST: I think Joe is someone you would assume has a big target, because people get a little frustrated when somebody gets that much love like he did last season. But — and maybe this just speaks to how I would play — Joe would not even be in consideration to go out first if he were on my tribe. He’s too much of an asset. Get rid of him later! Be in charge of your alliance and have him lower than he thinks he is, but use his muscle to get you through. Use him to help you make a fake idol and show you how to do it. People who get rid of threats early are playing from fear and they rarely do well, they rarely win, they rarely get deep. They just screw the game up for threats. WIGLER: Do you think he can get through that needle of the top-of-the-merge spot, where he was last time? PROBST: It depends on what happens. If he ends up with an alliance… this will come down to alliances for Joe, and a lot of people, and the big question will be how many alliances will stick together, and how many people will say, “I’m breaking off!” WIGLER: Okay, there are only three people left on the board… this is tough. So, for my utility pick — the person I’m not leaving on the bench — I’m taking… ON THE FINAL PAGE: The Final Utility And The Bench