When Donald Trump first threw out the cheap applause line about “building a wall” to keep out scary foreigners, he noticed how his audience of lesser-educated xenophobes reacted with cheers. So he kept saying it. After all, he has admitted on several occasions how his words are less guided by values and beliefs, and more by whatever “works”.

“Drain the swamp. I hated it. Somebody said ‘Drain the swamp’, I said ‘That is so hokey, that is so terrible.’ I said ‘Alright I’ll try it’ . So a month ago I said ‘Drain the swamp’, the place went crazy. Then I started saying it like I meant it!” (link)

Suddenly, like so many TV celebrities before him, Trump had a prime-time catchphrase — right up there with Joey Tribbiani “How YOU doin’?” and Seinfeld’s “Hello, Newman.” Trump failed to mention that the swamp being drained was the one that he himself appointed, and that the “draining” would be by resignation and indictment.(link)

Which brings us to his second big catchphrase:

“We’re gonna build a wall. And Mexico is going to pay for it.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfxBs5y5eIo

While his failure on the swamp-draining is more subjective, this “beautiful, powerful” wall “made of hardened concrete” is something quite tangible. Years later, the imaginary threats he has used to push this wall to his supporters have evolved — via fear, via lies, and via a complete lack of spine from his party — into a full-blown crisis. And forced Americans into one the dumbest policy debates in the history of American politics.

When Trump fans continue defending this manufactured crisis, they honestly do not see how they have let themselves be manipulated into surrendering control. Their lack of basic reasoning is evident in the many memes they share (example below). In the world of the Trump supporter, a government shutdown is not a bad thing since it does not directly prevent us from continuing to live our lives. Even if it ruins the lives of others. This is how far their expectation of a president has fallen. It’s no longer about making us great, it’s about protecting us from imagined harm. By this same logic, we just just as easily not put up a wall, since illegal immigration is not a real threat to the average American in the first place.

But the key takeaway from the government shutdown is that it reveals just how bad Trump is at negotiation.

A few days ago, Trump appeared on the major television networks to rehash the same tired talking points. But amidst the chaos of a deteriorating nation, he offered exactly zero concessions to his opposition. Nothing. The following day, he stormed out of a meeting, and once again offered nothing. (link) This kind of behavior leads many to question whether he even cares about a wall. Surely if he felt the wall was so important, he would have asked for it for the two years his party was controlling the pursestrings. Surely if he believes that this is a “crisis” (in his words), he would be negotiating to get it done by any means necessary?

He isn’t. Because he can’t.

“Business” for Trump has never been about solving problems, and neither is politics. It’s just about his ego. His personality disorder (link) precludes him from considering any objectives other than his compulsion to be seen as a “winner”. Unfortunately, that means he’s incapable of the cooperation and collaboration required by the job. That is why all his deals were handled by others, such as his lawyer George Ross.

In Trump’ mind (and the minds of many of his fear-fueled supporters) all deals must end with someone winning, and someone losing. This is what is called a “zero-sum” mentality. And it is precisely why he was such a failure at business (link) and had to resort to illegal activities just to stay solvent. It is why he uses the term “winning” all the time. He is worried that if he gives *any* concessions to *anyone*, he will be a loser. He does not understand that he is already considered a loser by a growing majority of the country (link). And inability to negotiate means he will continue losing. Just yesterday, the house voted overwhelmingly to prevent yet another one of his campaign promises to pull out from NATO (link). His “my way or the highway” may play to his dwindling base, but in the end, people simply choose the highway.

Being an effective politician is all about negotiation. In fact, it’s about little else. You must navigate a sea of stakeholder interests, and create deals that incentivize people with contrasting opinions and values to come to consensus. You develop strategies to get things done. Sadly, Trump’s previous jobs, from bossing around a few family members and lawyers to hosting a reality TV show, have not enabled him to develop any experience truly interacting with people. And this inexperience, combined with his insecurity and his complete lack of trust has left him grossly incapable of diplomacy.

The fact that the wall makes no logical sense is almost besides the point. Anyone serious about stopping drugs or terrorism knows that they come into the country through boat ports and airports. (link) In fact, every single jihadist who conducted a lethal attack inside the United States since 9/11 was a citizen or legal resident. (link) In fact, not one person from the seven countries in Trump’s airline ban killed anyone in a terrorist attack on U.S. soil between 1975 and 2015. (link) Illegal immigration across our southern border has actually declined sharply in recent decades (link) , and undocumented immigrants are simply not disproportionately committing crimes. (link)

But far more importantly, the data reveals that issues like immigration and terrorism are not even very big problems to begin with. They only feel like a threat to the 20% of the population who are more predisposed to Authoritarian Personality Syndrome (link) and who favor emotional anecdotal evidence over statistical data. The real threat we face as a nation is that we fail to develop an immunity to these constant distractions. The real threat is that we abandon logic when assessing future threats. The real threat is that we abandon diplomacy.

Each time the incompetence of this administration causes another incident, the American people suffer serious collateral damage. This time, it’s the 800,000 federal workers (and the millions who depend on their work). That means the country is significantly less safe. (link) Garbage and feces in the parks. Reduced TSA at airports. No food inspections, despite the fact that more Americans were killed by lettuce last year than by these imagined threats.

So the next time a candidate’s campaign strategy hinges on his popularity as a wealthy successful deal-maker, let’s not be complicit in reinforcing this narrative. Trump is not a successful businessman.

No one knows this more than Tony Schwartz , who wrote “The Art Of The Deal” to help Trump peddle this false narrative to the cynics who value money over integrity, sincerity and hope, and who traded intellectual curiosity for celebrity worship.

In short, this is why the Trump will end before a second term. Not because of immoral or even criminal actions. Not because Republicans suddenly gain a conscience. But because the man cannot negotiate his way out of a paper bag. And thank god he can’t. Because our country would be in far worse shape if he could.

UPDATE: Trump caved in.

UPDATE: A week later, ‘VICE’ has now posted a similar story: “Trump is Actually Lousy At Making Deals According To Negotiators”

UPDATE: Overa month later, and The Week has posted this piece: “Donald Trump is the worst presidential negotiator in history”