Paul’s advisers say he should be judged by his success bringing new voters to the GOP. Paul's problem: Self-inflicted wounds

Rand Paul’s 2016 prospects would look a lot brighter if he’d bring an end to one of his biggest problems: self-inflicted wounds.

Paul wants to be the guy who broadens the Republican Party’s appeal to young voters and minorities, and some GOP operatives say he just might be able to pull it off. He has won attention for his fight against mandatory minimum jail sentences, he has visited Howard University to pitch his ideas to African-American college students, and he won the Maine straw poll this weekend after giving a speech about the need for a broader Republican coalition.


But he has also had a series of stumbles that could threaten his ability to appeal to the same voters he’s trying to reach. And some Republican strategists say he’ll have to start showing more discipline if he does get into the 2016 race.

( QUIZ: Do you know Rand Paul?)

Paul was one of a handful of Republicans who got burned by Cliven Bundy, the Nevada rancher who flamed out after wondering out loud whether African-Americans were better off under slavery. He never actually praised Bundy, and he condemned Bundy’s statements as soon as they were reported. But he did express sympathy with Bundy and his supporters’ battle with the Bureau of Land Management — calling it “a real … intellectual and constitutional and legal debate” — when most other Republicans didn’t take the bait and avoided commenting at all.

He’s not the only potential 2016 candidate who got burned by Bundy — Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. Rick Perry both sounded the themes of government overreach, too. But the episode highlighted the fact that Paul has made other unforced errors on the road to GOP stardom. There was the 2010 interview in which he seemed to question the premise of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. There was the former aide who used to work as a radio host called the “Southern Avenger,” wearing a Confederate flag mask.

And there have been other incidents that have gotten him in trouble. He went from annoying GOP national security hawks with his warnings about drones to disappointing some supporters by suggesting they could be used against liquor store robbers. And last year Paul had to promise to be more careful after a series of speeches used language that appeared to be borrowed from other sources without citing them.

( Also on POLITICO: Rand Paul wins Maine straw poll)

Paul’s advisers say he should be judged by his success bringing new voters into the Republican Party, not by a rehash of old stories from his past.

“Sen. Rand Paul’s message to the Republican Party is to adapt, evolve or die. It is unfortunate that some political analysts will use Sen. Paul’s efforts to grow our party as an excuse to lob outdated criticisms,” said spokesman Sergio Gor. “Sen. Paul should be judged by his engagement of all groups and his message of growth, not old recycled accusations that distract from Sen. Paul’s message of inclusion.”

And Republican operatives say he hasn’t done anything that would sink his chances. But the embarrassments add up to a bad habit for Paul — one even some of his admirers say he’ll have to turn around if he wants to become a mainstream candidate.

( Also on POLITICO: Rand Paul makes a muddle)

“If you’re going to be vetted by the national media, you don’t want to be vetted by your mistakes,” said Ed Rollins, the former adviser to President Ronald Reagan who served as Mike Huckabee’s national campaign chairman in 2008. “You can make 100 good speeches, and it’s the one bad statement that will get all the attention.”

“It’s a tightrope when you’re out there. People look at you very closely. You’ve got to get used to that,” Rollins said.

Some of the warnings are also coming from Paul’s potential opponents — which isn’t surprising, since they’ll be looking for any vulnerabilities they can find. And Paul was already taking a lot of heat from national security hawks who don’t like his criticisms of government surveillance.

( WATCH: POLITICO's Driving the Day)

“There’s a number of subjects that really do raise questions about his judgment,” said Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.), a likely 2016 rival. King also said people would start to question the judgment of people around him: “It makes you wonder about the judgment of some of the people he would rely on as president.”

But some top Republicans who are more sympathetic to Paul are sounding the alarm, too — including former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele, who has praised Paul for his efforts to expand the GOP’s outreach to African-Americans.

“Of course, Rand has condemned the ignorance and overt racism of Bundy, but leadership, especially presidential leadership, requires more — he should make clear where he wants to lead the Republican Party on matters like this now and in the future,” Steele said.

Steele said Paul and other Republicans “should no longer feel compelled to jump on the bandwagon to nowhere … but rather lead with a clear vision about race in America while reconciling their past stumbles on such matters.”

And the fact that most Republicans knew enough not to embrace Bundy or his supporters — even before his racially loaded remarks — “makes those who did all the more suspect,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

Other GOP strategists, however, say Paul’s political talents — especially his down-to-earth manner and his appeal to people who haven’t been traditional Republican voters — are strong enough to put any worries to rest.

“I frankly think Paul is going to go a lot farther than people realize. He’s just not afraid to travel outside the comfort zone and find new customers,” said Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway.

“What happens in politics is, everyone is too afraid to go out and sell the product. So what they do is, they go back to the old customers and say, ‘Hey, do you still like us?’” Conway said. “What Rand is trying to do is find people who are not yet engaged in politics and get them engaged.”

Paul can be an affable, chatty guy, holding court with reporters at the Capitol about everything from phone surveillance to miniature drones. So it’s not a total surprise that he would say what was on his mind when television interviewers asked him about Bundy.

But presidential campaigns require a level of discipline that your average rank-and-file senator doesn’t need — because the average senator doesn’t have a team of opposition researchers watching every move.

Presidential candidates soon learn that they don’t have to wade into every subject, and if they do, their words can come back to bite them. And they learn that it matters a lot whom they surround themselves with. Confederate-flag-wearing shock jocks are a definite “no.”

Rollins says he always advises candidates, “don’t think out loud” — it brings nothing but trouble. “Talking to the Rotary Club in Ohio, you can get into a comfort zone,” he said. “Even though everyone has a video camera these days, people don’t think beyond the room they’re in.”

But Rollins also says Paul needs to expand his circle, arguing that he still relies too much on his Senate aides and needs more people with presidential campaign experience who can help him prevent other stumbles.

And, of course, comparisons with his father, Ron Paul, are inevitable — as are more questions about the racially loaded passages from the older Paul’s newsletter, which the former congressman and presidential candidate insists he never saw. In one sign that he’s trying to learn discipline, Rand Paul told The Daily Caller last month that he’s “pretty much quit answering” questions about his father. But if he launches a presidential campaign, those questions won’t be over — not by a long shot.

Not all presidential campaign alums think Paul’s troubles will be enough to trip him up.

“Rand will be a full-employment opportunity for opposition researchers, for sure. But he may have the money and organization to roll through it,” said Mark McKinnon, a former adviser to President George W. Bush.

There's certainly reason to believe Paul will get past the Bundy episode, at least for now. He won the Maine straw poll just days after he had to distance himself from the Nevada rancher. But that doesn’t mean he’ll be able to recover from other mistakes if he keeps making them — unlike media figures such as Sean Hannity and Glenn Beck, who embraced Bundy much more closely and were able to just shake him off.

“The consequences are far greater for public officials,” said Ayres. “We tend to cut entertainers a little more slack.”