THE rating system has evolved a little bit since Origin I.

It still takes into account the things a player does which impact the game positively and negatively in attack and defence.

However, it is now a little more sophisticated in that it organises players according to their position group and rates them by the points added above a replacement-level player at that position.

Effectively, we are saying that if two opposing teams were comprised entirely of replacement-level players, the result would be a draw.

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Now, after adding one of these players in their designated position, they would be expected to beat the replacement-level team by their corresponding score.

ORIGIN INDEX: Full stats for every player who’s ever played

More simply, if a replacement-level team added the Sharks equivalent of Andrew Fifita and the match was played at a neutral ground, they would be 6.3 points better off.

The rating system, Points Produced Above Replacement (PPAR), does as it says — it expresses the points a player adds (or subtracts) compared to a replacement-level player at their position.

Players who have played a limited amount of games in a given position are very difficult to project — namely Darius Boyd and Dane Gagai, as well as Jack Bird and Michael Morgan playing in roles so different from those at club level — given limited sample sizes.

Factoring in minutes played at State of Origin is also very difficult and so the ratings simply assume that roles at club level will remain relatively stable in State of Origin to remove any further inference in the output.

Also, the lack of sample size and ever changing team composition make it difficult to assign a numerical home ground advantage in this match, therefore, it will be assumed that this match is being played on a neutral ground.

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The results are somewhat intuitive — Cameron Smith is the best hooker (and player) in the NRL and as such is rated as 6.9 points better than a replacement-level hooker.

Other results are perhaps more surprising — the much maligned Mitchell Pearce having a greater impact than the current Australian halfback Cooper Cronk seemed odd at first, but the recent form of Pearce and his contribution to the Roosters recent success has driven his production and he deserves his ranking as one of the elite halves in the competition.

Nonetheless, the Maroons have selected an appreciably better team in terms of optics and statistics for game two and will be far better placed to level the series than they would have if they had remained loyal and stuck with their line-up from the series opener.

At present, we are suggesting that the Blues are the slightly better team pre-match — a 0.9-point better team, to be exact — and giving them a 50.9% chance of winning the match.

NEW SOUTH WALES

1 James Tedesco 4.0

2 Blake Ferguson 1.3

3 Josh Dugan 0.6

4 Jarryd Hayne 1.2

5 Brett Morris 1.2

6 Mitchell Pearce 5.7

7 James Maloney 4.7

8 Aaron Woods 1.6

9 Nathan Peats 1.8

10 Andrew Fifita 6.3

11 Boyd Cordner 3.9

12 Josh Jackson 2.1

13 Tyson Frizell 2.4

14 Wade Graham 2.5

15 Jack Bird 1.9

16 Jake Trbojevic 2.4

17 David Klemmer 1.4

Points better than replacement-level team: 22.5

QUEENSLAND

1 Billy Slater 2.9

2 Valentine Holmes 1.6

3 Will Chambers 1.7

4 Darius Boyd 1.1

5 Dane Gagai 1.1

6 Johnathan Thurston 6.6

7 Cooper Cronk 4.8

8 Jarrod Wallace 1.2

9 Cameron Smith 6.8

10 Dylan Napa 0.6

11 Gavin Cooper 1.2

12 Matt Gillett 2.4

13 Josh McGuire 2.2

14 Coen Hess 1.9

15 Josh Papalii 4.1

16 Tim Glasby 0.7

17 Michael Morgan 2.1

Points better than replacement-level team: 21.6

EXPECTED RESULT: NSW by 1 point