(From left) Tom Donilon, Leon Panetta and Tom Daschle have all been mentioned for the job. | AP Photos Insider likely to replace Rahm

President Barack Obama hasn’t yet picked a permanent replacement for chief of staff Rahm Emanuel — but he’s leaning toward someone already inside the Obama bubble rather than an outsider who would shake up the West Wing, people close to him say.

Emanuel is expected to leave the White House soon — perhaps as early as this Friday — to explore a run for mayor of Chicago, according to two people familiar with the situation.


Despite criticism that Obama’s too insular —and too reluctant to venture beyond his comfort zone — the president feels little pressure to move outside the relatively small group of advisers and ex-campaign staffers who currently surround him in replacing Emanuel, aides say.

Nor is Obama expected to pick a permanent chief of staff until after the November midterms, when the full extent of Democratic losses and GOP gains is fully known.

The only names being seriously considered to replace Emanuel are three men who are already on Obama’s team, according to officials: Deputy National Security Adviser Tom Donilon; Ron Klain, an aide to Vice President Joe Biden; and Obama senior adviser Pete Rouse, who might be called upon to temporarily replace Emanuel until a permanent replacement is found.

The outsiders being mentioned include former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, onetime Clinton chief of staff John Podesta — who has said repeatedly he doesn’t want the job — and CIA Director Leon Panetta.

Panetta, a former congressman who also served as a Clinton chief of staff, is reportedly the favorite pick of some Democrats on Capitol Hill, who say he’d be best equipped to deal with a newly empowered Hill GOP.

None is considered to be on Obama’s shortlist at the moment. But Obama’s aides say that the president has kept his plans close to the vest and that he could opt for an outside-the-box pick should the political climate dictate it.

These two models — a “super-staffer” in the mold of Donilon or Klain, or a “surrogate” in the mold of Daschle or Panetta — both have been debated inside the West Wing, with Obama insiders now expecting a pick in the super-staffer mold. The reason, in part, is because some of the more boldfaced names already in the administration, such as outgoing economic adviser Larry Summers and National Security Adviser James Jones, haven’t always worked out.

Emanuel is still assessing his chances and the impact of a mayoral campaign on his wife and young children before making a decision, sources say. But the need to begin planning for a potentially tough Democratic primary on the ground — coupled with Obama’s desire to move beyond the speculation swirling around Emanuel — is moving him closer to the door.

“Rahm is nearing a decision on whether to leave the White House and explore a run for mayor of Chicago — an announcement could come as early as Friday,” said a person close to Emanuel. “Because of family considerations, no final decision has been made.”

The expected vacancy at chief of staff would give Obama a chance to remake the West Wing at a critical moment — when it is facing potentially devastating losses on Capitol Hill, a mini-exodus of exhausted staffers and what could be viewed as the starting gun of Obama's own 2012 reelection campaign.

But Obama’s history suggests that he is unlikely to offer sacrificial lambs — or dramatic gestures — after the midterms, no matter how deep the Democratic losses. Instead, he views top-level departures as an opportunity to refine his team rather than signal a radical change in direction.

Administration insiders consider the changes more normal than surprising, while acknowledging they give the president the opportunity for some notable restructuring.

In addition, Obama may want to see how other key staffers — including current White House press secretary Robert Gibbs — adapt to new assignments before deciding on how to proceed. David Plouffe, Obama’s hard-charging 2008 campaign manager, is expected to join the West Wing staff early next year.

The shortlist for chief of staff suggests the president is looking for a highly competent, no-frills staff manager at a time when the political center of gravity — led by David Axelrod — shifts to Chicago for the reelection push.

In addition to Emanuel’s likely departure, the national security adviser, Jones, has never clicked with the president’s inner circle and is expected to depart by the end of the year. Possible replacements include Donilon and Susan Rice, a close Obama campaign adviser who is now the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

And changes are also possible in the Cabinet, although insiders expect Obama to be judicious rather than make wholesale shifts: For example, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar has fallen out of favor and may be gently nudged out the door.

The departure of Emanuel — whose outsize reputation for bombast belies a keen understanding of West Wing power and a guard dog’s sensitivity to Obama’s vulnerabilities — overshadows all the other moves.

Emanuel hasn’t fundamentally redefined the chief of staff job, but he’s intensified it, made it more central and grabbed the reins of power with more gusto than anyone else who has occupied the job in recent memory.

Ironically, his perceived irreplacability makes him easier to replace.

Obama knows that nobody can fully take on Emanuel’s multiple responsibilities: presidential gatekeeper, legislative commander in chief, default crisis manager, Obama’s human shield and comic relief.

So Emanuel’s replacement won’t be expected to carry the load alone. And that makes it more likely Obama will feel no rush to replace Rouse, especially if Plouffe comes aboard.

Even if Democrats retain control of both houses of Congress after November, Obama has already accomplished much of his legislative agenda and wouldn't need an Emanuel clone to broker new deals on major pieces of legislation.

Instead, Obama's focus in the second half of his term is going to be on preserving his legislative victories, like health care, and creating jobs.

Republicans' gaining control of one of the houses of Congress could even be beneficial to Obama because he'd have the GOP to blame, rather than appear to struggle to get things done with a Democratic Congress.

His new chief of staff wouldn't have such a Hill-dominated role. In the meantime, and particularly during the lame-duck session, someone like the laid-back Rouse, who is close to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), might be more welcome on the Hill than the relentless Emanuel. Rouse served as chief of staff to Daschle and later to then-Sen. Obama.

Congressional Democrats are "looking for someone who understands the rhythms of the Hill and all the roadblocks that Republicans can throw up," said a senior Democratic leadership aide.

"Rahm was a great chief of staff; he got things done" the aide added.

Administration insiders view such changes as evolutionary rather than revolutionary and maintain that the exit of three of four top economic advisers was less a shakeup than routine turnover after two years of arduous governing.

But they add up to a broad halftime reconfiguration — fundamental changes that did not occur until the sixth year of the Bush presidency, when his first chief of staff, Andrew Card, departed. Karl Rove and Dan Bartlett, two other Texas stalwarts, did not leave until year seven.

The only major exception to the Bush stability was Karen Hughes, his trusted communications guru, who left before the first midterms to return to her family in Texas.

As for Emanuel, Obama told Matt Lauer on NBC’s “Today” show Monday that Emanuel needed to move quickly if he plans to jump into the Feb. 22 election.

"I think that Rahm will have to make a decision quickly, because running for mayor of Chicago is a serious enterprise. And I know this is something he's thinking about,” Obama said.

Asked if he would endorse Emanuel, the president smiled and added that he’d already gone public with his opinion that Emanuel would make "an excellent” mayor.

“But until he makes a decision, I'm not going to be making decisions about how I'm going to approach it," the president added.