Russia investigations could affect midterm congressional elections, experts say

Erin Kelly | USA TODAY

Show Caption Hide Caption Giuliani: Mueller plans to wrap up obstruction inquiry by Sept. 1st President Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani says the special counsel Robert mueller will finish its investigation into whether or not trump obstructed justice in the Russia inquiry by September 1st. For more on the story here is Zachary Devita.

WASHINGTON — The outcome of two major investigations of Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election could help determine whether Republicans keep control of Congress, political analysts say.

Both the Senate Intelligence Committee's investigation and the wider criminal probe by Special Counsel Robert Mueller are expected to continue into the fall election season, creating uncertainty around what they will ultimately reveal about the Trump administration.

"If something big is revealed — an impeachable offense by the president — that could be a significant factor in creating a blue (Democratic) wave," said Grant Reeher, a political science professor at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University.

On the other hand, Reeher said, if the investigations end with nothing really significant or new "it gives power to President Trump's narrative that it has all been a witch hunt, which could give Republicans a boost."

No dates have been set for the investigations to conclude, but Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr, R-N.C., told reporters earlier this month that he expects the panel's staff to write its final report in August, while Congress is in recess.

That means the earliest the committee would be likely to release its findings would be September, after senators return to the Capitol and have time to review the report before releasing it to the public. The committee has been investigating Russian interference in the 2016 election and possible collusion between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin.

Mueller and his team of prosecutors and investigators have been close-mouthed about timing, but it doesn't appear their probe will end soon. The investigation has already resulted in the indictment of 19 people and three companies. Five of the people indicted — including three former members of the Trump campaign — have pleaded guilty to criminal charges.

The House Intelligence Committee has already concluded its bitterly partisan investigation, with the Republican majority finding that there was no collusion between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin. The Senate Judiciary Committee has conducted a much more limited probe and is not expected to issue a final report.

While candidates have traditionally feared an "October surprise" that could blow up their campaigns at the last minute, the growth of early voting means that bombshell news that hits anytime between September and the Nov. 6 election could change the election outcome, said Capri Cafaro, who teaches in the Department of Public Administration and Policy at American University.

"If you're in an early voting state, revelations from the investigations could have an impact even if they happen in August or September," she said.

Despite the uncertainty about when the probes will end, some conservative Republicans in pro-Trump districts are already using the investigations to help spur voters to show up on Election Day, Cafaro said.

"Republicans are trying to press the message to their base that a Democratic majority in the House could lead to impeachment of the president," she said. "It's a rallying cry to make the base turn out at the polls."

Similarly, Democrats are whipping up their voters by pointing to possible evidence of collusion between Trump and the Kremlin, said Jack Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College in California.

"Right now, the investigations seem to be motivating partisans on both sides," he said. "Democrats think Trump colluded with the Russians and Republicans think it's all a witch hunt. The fascinating question is: what kind of revelations would it take to shake either side out of its bunker?"

Hard-core Trump supporters may refuse to believe any evidence against the president no matter what the investigations reveal, while fierce Trump opponents may insist that an exoneration of the president is just a cover-up, Pitney said.

Given the deep partisan divide, the voters most likely to be affected by the outcome of the investigations are independent-minded people in swing states or districts, he said.

"It might have an impact at the margins — but elections are won and lost at the margins," Pitney said.

It's also possible that some moderate suburban Republicans already turned off by Trump's chaotic administration may be affected by dramatic news from the Russia investigations, Cafaro said.

"They could decide to sit home on Election Day," she said.

Democrats already are poised to pick up seats in the House in November, although they face a tougher time in the Senate, Reeher said. The president's party tends to lose seats in the midterm elections, regardless of who is in the White House.

"It does not look good for Trump, for the GOP," Reeher said. "We're looking at big losses for the party. The question is: will they lose control of the House?"

A "gut punch to the Trump administration" from the Russia investigations could help Democrats win by reinforcing their message that Congress needs to act as a check on a president who can't be trusted, he said.

"But if the investigations go on and on, it feeds the counter-narrative from Republicans — that instead of doing the people's business, Democrats are spending all their time on this investigation," Reeher said.