Plummeting solar-plus-storage costs could help electrify millions worldwide by facilitating a ten-fold explosion of mini-grid systems, a new report from the World Bank has said.

The 19,000 mostly hydro- and diesel-based mini-grids that power 47 million people today could boom to 210,000 systems powering 490 million by 2030, according to the institution.

Its report said most new mini-grids will feature a mix of PV with batteries, adding that the 10-15GW of solar / 50-110GWh of mostly lithium-ion batteries expected by 2030 would bring CO2 savings of 1.5 billion tonnes.

According to the World Bank, hitting the 210,000 mini-grid target by 2030 would require bringing solar hybrid costs down to around US$0.20/kWh, compared to today’s US$0.55/kWh baseline.

Achieving such a milestone would see the costs of PV modules drop from US$690/kWp (today) to US$140/kWp (2030) while li-ion batteries would decline from US$598/kWh to US$62/kWh in the same period.

“Mini-grids are now one of the core solutions for closing the energy access gap…we are working with countries to actively mobilise public and private investment,” said Riccardo Puliti, a senior director of Energy and Extractives at the World Bank.