Our Mentors’ predictions for 2016 – Virtual doctors, peer group policing and smarter software







We’ve seen the launch of the iWatch, the dawn of contactless payments and the mass consumption of Ultra HD 4k screens. Take a bow 2015, you have been quite a year for business and technology.

What could possibly come next? What treats does 2016 have in store?

We’ve spoken to five of our finest Future Worlds mentors to find out what trends they see gaining momentum in 2016 and beyond. Some of their ideas might surprise you…

Vincent Mifsud Vincent is a consultant in strategy and technology at Caleta Technologies. He has held prominent roles in world-leading aviation and aerospace companies including Cobham, Qinetiq and Vickers (Rolls-Royce). Click here for his Future Worlds mentor profile. Vincent is predicting that the use of virtual reality in design could make great strides in 2016. “New display systems and ways of interacting with computers could expand rapidly over the next year,” he says. “I see some major advances over the next year or two in terms of the ability to create concepts virtually. It’s such a big and potentially exciting field that a lot of companies are working on this and I think it will expand rapidly.” He believes that new technologies in the video games sector, such as Microsoft’s Kinect motion capture system, could begin to influence systems in other industries. Sophisticated software might soon emerge in the automotive and aerospace industries, leading to a completely new cockpit environment of the future. Vincent is also expecting a bright future for the semiconductor industry. “There could be advances in novel semi-conductors soon which would enable energy to be generated more efficiently and more quickly. It could really help the solar and wind industries which currently generate power at different frequencies which need to be converted.”

Geoff Baker Geoff is a Chartered Engineer and Vice President of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE). He was MD/co-founder of Plant Asset Management & ATL and passionately believes engineers can help grow the UK economy. Click here for his Future Worlds mentor profile. Geoff believes the highly publicised Volkswagen emissions scandal could have major repercussions for the transport industry in 2016. “The scandal has damaged the trust the public has in internal combustion engines,” he says. “I think electric car manufacturers will capitalise on that and there will be an upsurge in the development and sale of electric vehicles. New players will emerge and want to be a part of that, so we will see companies that aren’t involved in the automotive industry starting to develop electric cars. Will we see an Apple iCar?” The recent deal to limit the rise of global temperatures at the Paris climate change summit will also provide an extra boost to the interested parties for environmentally-friendly vehicles. Geoff also expects the concept of car ownership to begin to change in the near future, particularly if the emissions scandal begins to affect other manufacturers. “People will look at ways of getting from A to B in the most economically viable way,” he says. “I can see the Boris Bike concept extending to electric vehicles.” In the oil and gas sector, Geoff is prepared to see mergers and casualties in the UK market. “The bubble has well and truly burst – I don’t think the industry will be the same again,” he says. Around the home, Geoff can see the first steps being taken towards a whole new model of healthcare monitoring. “There’s no reason your doctor can’t be a virtual doctor,” he says. “You would access your GP on your iPhone, sending him symptoms and photos. “In the future, you could even have smart sensors embedded into your body to measure blood or sugar. These would automatically send data back and trigger an alarm with your doctor when required. The possibilities for healthcare are quite tremendous.”

Penny Endersby Penny is Head of the Cyber and Information Systems Division of the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) and a Visiting Professor at the University of Southampton. Click here to read her Future Worlds mentor profile. Growing quantities of open source information can help the defence sector to supplement their own information and Penny is also expecting big data techniques to be applied in training personnel and managing logistics. The Internet of Things is coming and will be very relevant to us,” she adds. “Think of somewhere hit by an earthquake or floods – there is information to be had there which could help in response and future prevention. “A big change we are already seeing is that conflicts are happening in the public eye in real-time. That makes a huge difference to the way people behave. Both sides are constantly aware of the Twitter version of events and how the narrative there can influence the real situation.” Looking beyond 2016, Penny thinks we will see increased autonomy entering defence procedures. “New technology will pervade a lot of things, replacing manned platforms with small unmanned ones and even entering decision-making processes,” she says. “There are ethical and legal aspects to consider in how far automation which is already possible can be applied to defence and a lot of work will have to be done on policy.” In 20 to 30 years’ time, Penny thinks society could be reaping the benefits of exciting applications for quantum sensing via quantum entanglement. Direct brain implants, currently only in their infancy may allow subjects to remotely sense items using their minds and access computer memory as if it is their own.

Mike Lurcock Mike is an experienced management consultant. He has worked in financial services with Ernst and Young and managed projects with smaller London consultancies for over a decade. Click here to read his Future Worlds mentor profile. Mike is watching for progress in a number of exciting fields in the coming year, ranging from peer group policing to novel new forms of transport. He predicts that the expanding crowdfunding industry could gradually be institutionalised in 2016. “I think we will see a maturing of the crowdfunding scene,” he says. “People understand the business model now and there’s more volume being invested. It will end up with institutional money coming in and we’re already starting to see that. Be aware, it could become more expensive as the established names come in chasing higher rates of return.” Mike sees great potential for situational technology in 2016, with apps taking advantage of devices’ mapping software to create mainstream applications in travel, policing and health. He also expects society to make small strides towards a sharing economy in progression of the vehicle ownership, leasing and hire sector. Longer term car hire and leasing could become easier through the development of new car share companies. Mike thinks the public could start to become new eyes and ears of the police in the coming years as people utilise the web for peer group policing. “If someone is seen driving dangerously, people could click and send images to the police,” he says. “They would have to be careful what checks and balances are in place, but there’s mileage there and it would be good for society. Police could respond if a consistent pattern of bad behaviour was being flagged by rated reporters.” Looking further ahead to the future, Mike thinks the captivating concept of air-powered cars could become a reality one day. Several companies are said to be undertaking research and development into the idea which would run generators using compressed air.

Mike Payne Mike has co-founded several technology companies including the world-renowned CAD software leader SolidWorks. He established data management firm Kenesto in 2011 and directs the firm today as Chief Executive Officer. Click here to read his Future Worlds mentor profile. “People are going to see more and more software they expect to be on their computer running in the cloud,” Mike says. “Companies are pushing to the cloud and I don’t see any slowdown soon.” Mike predicts that many pioneering startup companies will be bought in the next 12 months as they make inventive use of the cloud and are acquired by big companies that want to keep up with innovations. He is also prepared for an erosion of permanent software licenses as companies plan a pricing model that can let their software advance. “A lot of software has been priced on the basis that the market is ever increasing, but that’s simply not true and companies are finding the limits,” he says. Mike predicts software manuals will become a dying breed in 2016 as a greater emphasis is placed on making systems so user friendly that no prior learning is required for use. “The emerging generation isn’t used to reading anything,” he says. “We will see improvements in user interfaces continuing next year and more intuitive use.” Smarter machines are becoming less reliant on human input to manage applications and a broader range of users are becoming less expert in the technology behind their devices. “We are making things smarter and dumber at the same time,” Mike observes.