The “next coronavirus”?

Last week we explored the lessons that can be learned from the coronavirus for a Total Green Future. In short, we saw that:

environmental problems such as air pollution swiftly improve when people are forced to change their lifestyles

we now have evidence that demonstrates that when governments are inclined to take drastic action, they can do so pretty much overnight

people are willing to accept previously unthinkable government intervention if it is framed for the common good.

The article concluded with the assumption that ultimately such actions were being taken not to protect the lives of citizens (and of course, environmental issues have mostly fallen off the radar), rather to prevent the economy from going into total meltdown.

So, how should this inform our strategy for a Total Green Future as we go forward? First, let’s speculate about how our current problems will pan out. In all likelihood, within a year both the coronavirus and current economic troubles will have stabilized and people will start to believe that we dodged a bullet. Remember how in the Global Financial Crisis a decade ago people were talking about the “end of capitalism” but nothing changed? The same is probably going to happen again. The social and cultural issues that resulted in the coronavirus and our ability to respond to it will not be addressed, and neither will the underlying systemic problems in the economy (let alone the environment).

That means that an even bigger problem is still on the horizon. That problem will be set off by some Black Swan event, which by its very nature we cannot predict, even if the results of that event are entirely predictable: in other words, social, economic and environmental chaos.

Let’s now return to another recent article about the most likely pathways to a Total Green Future government. That article proposed two main pathways. The first was a reformist pathway that involved the creation of a new populist environmental movement that entered the existing democratic process. The second was a transformational pathway that looks something like a revolution that would normally receive profound resistance from the current political establishment. Let’s revisit the consequent discussion in full, because it’s important:

The key word here is the current strength of the political establishment. The most likely pathway to transformation of the current political process is to allow it to weaken due to its own incompetence. The unfortunate reality is that the environmental crisis will soon start to result in large losses of life, whether from food and water shortages, floods, fires, or any number of other catastrophes. Once such losses of life happen and the masses finally and genuinely understand the extraordinary dereliction of duty on behalf of the political establishment, the government will be profoundly weakened, and may even collapse. This will leave a large power vacuum that can be filled.

Such governmental incompetence starts to look more plausible in the context of the coronavirus given what we are seeing in bastions of English-speaking democracy such as the United States and the United Kingdom. The discussion of the transformational pathway continued:

Of course, the only people who profit from a power vacuum are those who can actually fill it. And here lies the short-term work of those interested in building a Total Green Future. It is necessary to normalize the ideas required to create something approximating a Total Green Future government, the seeds of which can be found in the Total Green Future Manifesto and Platform. It is necessary to empower people with hope and the belief that solutions on the necessary scale can be implemented. It is necessary to work toward building some kind of organizational infrastructure so that when such a power vacuum occurs, it can be filled by the good guys.

Imagine what would happen if we had a strong Total Green Future movement right now? There are always opportunities in chaos and disorder. Now — when things are in flux, and people are primed to accept extraordinary measures to solve extraordinary problems — would be a perfect time to take a profound leap toward a Total Green Future, were the movement in place.

So, the coronavirus and current economic troubles will probably dissipate, and very few lessons will probably be learned, which means we face another similar crisis within a relatively short time-frame (say, 5–10 years). Now is the perfect time to start building the infrastructure of a Total Green Future movement that can leverage the next crisis, and implement environmental solutions that will benefit everyone.