Update, Saturday:

Though Hurricane Irma's projected path tracks along Florida's Gulf Coast, Brevard County is positioned directly in the storm's northeast quadrant — boosting the threats of squalls, heavy rains and potential tornadoes.

"We don't want people's guards to be down at this point. This is the dirty side of the storm, as we like to call it," Will Ulrich, a National Weather Service meteorologist at the Melbourne station, said Friday morning.

"And it is where the most intense rain band activity can occur. It's where the strongest winds tend to be associated with a hurricane. So while we may not be impacted by the core, or the center, of Hurricane Irma, we still are going to face several threats from the system — one of which is the possibility of tornadoes," Ulrich said.

"Research tells us that tornado probabilities are at their highest when you are in the northeastern quadrant of the storm. And that's unfortunately where we're going to find ourselves here in the Space Coast for the next 24 to 48 hours," he said.

[Evacuees around Florida rush to Orlando as Hurricane Irma approaches]

[Hurricane Irma: Updates from Brevard Emergency Operations Center in Rockledge]

As Irma starts to turn northward, Ulrich squalls and heavy rain bands will move into Brevard.

"Those initial rain bands from Irma are expected to move north over the Space Coast overnight. And it's those rain bands that we're particularly concerned for a threat for isolated tornadoes," Ulrich said.

"The conditions that favor tornadoes will really increase before sunrise on Sunday, and that threat will continue through much of the day on Sunday," he said.

The NWS Melbourne forecast:

Saturday night: Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms is 100 percent. New rainfall could total 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch. Windy conditions will prevail, with an east-northeast wind around 25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph.

Sunday: Tropical storm conditions, with hurricane conditions possible. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent, and some thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall. Two to 3 inches of rain may fall. High temperature near 85.

Sunday night: Tropical storm conditions, with hurricane conditions possible. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent, and some storms could produce heavy rainfall.

Monday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy skies should prevail, with a high near 86.

Accordingly, Ulrich advised Brevard residents to wrap up hurricane preparation, such as shutter installation, by Saturday before the weather deteriorates.

Original story:

Hurricane Irma continued its crawl through the Caribbean on Friday, with warning cones from the National Hurricane Center showing it overtaking Florida by Sunday evening. Movement was to the west at 13 mph as of Friday evening.

Brevard was included in the hurricane warning as of 11 p.m.

A hurricane warning means that sustained winds of 74 mph or higher associated with a hurricane are expected, and tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours in a specified area.

While Irma's exact strength and trajectory could still fluctuate, the 160-mph windspeed storm is guaranteed to make an impact on Brevard County by late Sunday and early Monday.

There was an expected landfall in southwest Florida by 8 a.m. Sunday.

So what can Brevard residents expect — and when? Meteorologists with the National Weather Service, Melbourne, can't say with certainty exactly how strong the storm will be in a given area at a given time, but a general overview is possible.

[List of Brevard County shelters and evacuation zones]

[Brevard Zoo staff prepares animals for Hurricane Irma]



Late Sunday morning: Brevard will begin to experience tropical storm-force winds through the early afternoon as the Irma makes its way up the middle of the state and its outer bands begin to lap at the county.

Late Sunday afternoon: Brevard will begin to experience sustained tropical storm-force winds across the county.

Sunday evening: From the afternoon to evening, hurricane-force bands will begin to creep into the county, with parts of southern Brevard experiencing sustained hurricane winds.

Overnight Monday: After midnight Monday is when the brunt of the hurricane-force winds will come into the area. By 2 a.m. Monday, the county should be experiencing sustained hurricane-force winds.

Palm Bay: The Palm Bay police and fire departments will suspend emergency services once sustained winds reach 50 mph, Keely Leggett, city spokeswoman, announced Saturday morning. Once sustained winds drop below that threshold, Leggett said normal emergency response services will resume. This policy will be enacted to ensure the safety of police officers and firefighters.

Irma is nearly 400 miles wide, and meteorologists say hurricane-force winds can extend up to 70 miles from the eye, with tropical storm-force winds extending 185 miles from the eye.

The NWS did not mince words in its Friday morning statement about Irma's impact on the area:

"It is now very likely that this major hurricane will have significant and potentially life-threatening impacts to the citizens of east central Florida!! Extreme winds are of life-threatening concern and will have the potential for devastating to catastrophic impacts along Irma`s track."

Structural damage to buildings, heavy flooding from storm surges and rain and tornadoes are all possibilities due to Irma, according to the NWS.

Although making landfall can often cause hurricanes to lose intensity, NWS meteorologist Kevin Rodriguez said it won't curb the risk much in Irma's case.

"We're still expecting it to be a major hurricane by the time it gets up here," Rodriguez said. "Even if it does track over land the entire way, it probably will not weaken very quickly."



Irma is an "outlier" in both size and power, making it hard to slow down, according to Rodriguez.



Rodriguez also added that, although the storm's path could waver somewhat, a huge difference won't be made either way.

"Once you start getting into the three-day cone, that's where there's consensus in the models," Rodriguez said. "Due to the size of the storm, it doesn't matter if it tracks on the right side or the left side of the cone; it's going to bring some pretty bad impacts to the peninsula."

Starting Friday afternoon at 3 p.m., residents of Brevard's barrier islands were issued a mandatory evacuation.

[FLORIDA TODAY news is free, unlimited for Hurricane Irma]

[Don't 'drink and hurricane' during Irma]

County spokesman Don Walker said that causeways in both directions will not be closed during the hurricane despite common misconceptions. Florida Department of Transportation will close the causeways only after the storm has passed to conduct safety inspections.

"When hurricane winds reach 40 mph or higher they could become unsafe for emergency vehicles," putting beachside residents in more danger if they need help, Walker said.

“Mandatory evacuations mean it’s a serious situation. But we can’t force people out of their homes.”

Trash pickups on the barrier islands have been stopped.

“As far as trash pickups, there is no more trash pickup on the barrier islands. We have a skeleton crew picking up yard clippings, but there’s no promise of getting to all of them. The next pickup will be after Monday, at the earliest.”

Walker also wanted to reiterate that not everyone on the mainland and outside of a flood-prone area needs to evacuate.

"If you live in a sound structure, if you live in a house that's brick and has a concrete foundation and you have hurricane shutters, You're probably going to be just fine staying in your house," he said.



"If it's a coin flip on whether you feel safe or not, then you should probably go to a shelter."

Contact Vazquez at tvazquez@floridatoday.com, 321-917-7491 or on Twitter @tyler_vazquez.

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