This week a group of Russian activists released a report compiled from notes left by murdered opposition leader Boris Nemtsov, detailing the evidence of Russian involvement in the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltvenberg, third right, Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, centre, Greek foreign minister Nikos Kotzias, third left, EU foreign police representative for foreign policy, Federica Mogherini, second right, and other NATO officials sing We Are the World. Credit:AFP According to that document (as translated by Radio Free Europe), Moscow is supporting the separatists fighting in Eastern Ukraine with arms and troops "to create an advantageous negotiating position with Western countries". The Kremlin can then agree to help end hostilities in exchange for the lifting of sanctions imposed when Russian annexed Crimea last year. Whether intentional or not, the strategy is working.

Before the meeting in Antalya, Mr Kerry was in Russia's Black Sea resort of Sochi for marathon talks with Mr Putin and his foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. Afterwards Mr Kerry called it a "critical moment". Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow earlier this week. Credit:Getty Images "Sanctions will remain in place (against Russia) in an effort to secure the peace that everybody needs in Ukraine," he said. "If and when (the ceasefire agreements are) fully implemented, it is clear that the United States and European sanctions can begin to be rolled back." Not everyone was impressed. Pro-Russian separatists of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic sit on a self-propelled gun in Donetsk last weekend. Credit:AFP

"Kerry is so very nice to Putin", was the Wall Street's Journal's sarcastic headline on its subsequent op-ed. "Mr Kerry appears to have given up even asking that Russia exit from eastern Ukraine, much less reverse last year's illegal seizure and annexation of Crimea. US Secretary of State John Kerry shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi on Tuesday. Credit:AP "For Mr Putin, the lesson is that he can grab what he wants, wait out the faux outrage and sanctions, and then consolidate his gains." Others were more generous in their interpretation. Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the journal Russia in Global Affairs, said both Russia and the US were clearly aware that a "situation where two large nuclear superpowers barely have working channels of communication for over a year is quite dangerous."

He did not expect sanctions to lift any time soon – for practical and political reasons. He was one of many observers who saw the meeting simply as a change in tone, rather than policy. But contrast with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who flew to Moscow last Sunday, and while there called the annexation of Crimea a "criminal and illegal act". There are worrying parallels between Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Russia again denies military involvement (in the face of persuasive evidence as in the Nemtsov report). But such denials count for very little, if Crimea is any precedent. Earlier this year, in the long, often absurdly propagandic documentary Crimea: The Way Home, Mr Putin unashamedly confessed that the deposing of Russia-friendly Ukraine president Yankovych "forced us to begin working on returning Crimea to Russia". Mr Putin said: "I gave (subordinates) some instructions about what needed to be done and how." This week Ukrainian officials claimed to have found ballot papers for a new referendum in separatist's regions, with the box ticked to become part of Russia. Whether genuine or clumsy propaganda, it revealed the country's real fears.

However Lukasz Kulesa, research director at the European Leadership network, doesn't think Ukraine's 'Donbas' is Crimea Mark II. "There was an attempt to present eastern Ukraine as part of the new Russia, 'Novorossiya'… but it didn't really work," Mr Kulesa said. "This project basically disappeared, the Russian leaders and experts stopped talking about Novorossiya. "Right now the Russian game is not to have Donetsk and Luhansk going the same way as Crimea, but keeping it inside Ukraine as kind of a wound that would poison the whole Ukrainian organism. "I don't see what exactly they could gain from going the independence route, that would basically guarantee more sanctions, and an even more miserable state for the Russian economy." That said, Russia is keeping its options open.

"They threaten with another referendum, they threaten with another military offensive, but they are expecting to stabilise the situation, turn it into a frozen conflict or if something goes wrong blame it on the Kiev side." Mr Kulesa doesn't think Crimea will be written off the diplomatic books. He predicts the international community will still refuse to recognise it as part of the Russian federation, which would have practical consequences for trade, investment, tourism, air and maritime traffic. But he expects that, if Russia plays ball in eastern Ukraine, "there would be an attempt to divide the sanctions currently in place between those connected to the Crimea takeover and keep them in place, basically indefinitely, and the others … which could be scaled down." Even if this isn't Mr Putin's plan, it appears a scenario he wouldn't be unhappy with.