RRH Elections NC-9 Poll: Bishop (R) Leads McCready (D) 46-45

One week ahead of the closely-watched re-do election in south-central North Carolina’s 9th congressional district, a new poll of 500 likely voters from RRH Elections shows the race very tight. State Sen. Dan Bishop (R) edges businessman and 2018 general election nominee Dan McCready (D) by a margin of 46%-45%, well within the poll’s 4% margin of error. Libertarian Jeff Scott and Green Party candidate Allen Smith trail with 2% and 1% respectively, and 5% remain undecided. The survey also shows that Trump’s approval rating is just barely positive in the conservative-leaning district. In hypothetical 2020 matchups, Trump holds a modest lead over Joe Biden in the presidential race, while LG Dan Forest (R) edges Gov. Roy Cooper (D) in the gubernatorial race in the district. The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted by RRH Elections through landline and cell phone calls, and has a margin of error of 4%. RRH Elections is solely responsible for data analysis for this survey, including demographic weighting. The survey results were weighted by gender and geographic location only. RRH Elections is a group of volunteer hobbyist bloggers that has no connection to any candidate or organization active in this race. This poll was entirely crowd-funded by donations from the readers of our blog. Please visit us at http://rrhelections.com.

Flip over for full results and crosstabs!

Topline Results:

2019 Congressional Rerun Election Dan Bishop (R) 46% Dan McCready (D) 45% Jeff Scott (L) 2% Allen Smith (G) 1% Undecided 5%

Trump Approval Approve 47% Disapprove 45% No Opinion 8%

2020 Presidential Donald Trump (R) 50% Joe Biden (D) 44% Undecided 6%

2020 Gubernatorial Dan Forest (R) 45% Roy Cooper (D) 44% Undecided 10%

Demographics & Crosstabs:

Voter Status Total Bishop (R) McCready (D) Others Undecided Already Voted 7% 48% 41% 11% N/A Certain to Vote 71% 47% 44% 4% 5% Likely to Vote 22% 44% 47% 3% 6%

Trump Approval: Bishop (R) McCready (D) Others Undecided Approve (47%) 90% 7% 1% 2% Disapprove (45%) 5% 89% 2% 4% No Opinion (8%) 25% 14% 25% 36%

Gender: Total Bishop (R) McCready (D) Others Undecided Male 48% 47% 42% 4% 8% Female 52% 46% 47% 3% 3%

Race: Total Bishop (R) McCready (D) Others Undecided White 73% 47% 44% 3% 6% Black 22% 42% 46% 6% 6% Hispanic/Other 5% 55% 45% 0% 0%

Age: Total Bishop (R) McCready (D) Others Undecided 18-29 8% 45% 49% 3% 3% 30-49 30% 50% 46% 2% 6% 50-69 41% 45% 46% 4% 5% 70+ 21% 45% 45% 5% 6%

Region/County: Total Bishop (R) McCready (D) Others Undecided Cumberland 8% 53% 39% 0% 7% Mecklenburg 36% 42% 48% 3% 7% Robeson 9% 45% 42% 13% 0% Union 29% 51% 42% 2% 5% Others (Anson, Bladen, Richmond, Scotland) 17% 45% 46% 2% 1%

Methodology:

All survey design and data analysis was conducted by RRH Elections. GAJ Solutions placed live calls to cell and landline phones of likely voters in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District on August 26-28, 2019, yielding a survey of 500 complete responses. Those who attested that they were unlikely to vote in the special rerun election were not included in the survey. The poll was weighted by gender and geography (county) only; random deletion was not used as a method of weighting.

Discussion:

The rerun election in North Carolina’s 9th congressional district, stretching from Charlotte through its southeastern suburbs and to the rural sandhills in the south-central part of the state, has been closely-watched nationally, and our new RRH Elections poll shows that the focus on the race is justified. Republican State Senator Dan Bishop edges out businessman Dan McCready, who was the Democratic nominee in the invalidated 2018 general election for this district, by a margin of just 46-45, well within the poll’s 4% margin of error. Two minor candidates are in the low single digits, while 6% remain undecided. The key divide here is on partisanship and support of Trump, as Bishop gets an overwhelming share of those who approve of the President while McCready takes a similarly overwhelming share of those who disapprove. Aside from that cleavage, the race is highly notable for how similarly Bishop and McCready are performing in this survey across a wide variety of demographic groups. Bishop seems to take an implausibly high share of the votes of Black voters, a result that is likely due to sampling error in the small sample size for that demographic subgroup. Bishop and McCready keep the race close across the entire district, with no particularly strong divide between the urban and suburban western part of the seat and the more rural east. They also keep the race close among both men and women. Looking ahead to the 2020 races, President Trump leads Joe Biden by a modest 6-point margin in the district, less than the margin he won by three years ago in this seat. In the gubernatorial race, Republican Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest and incumbent Democratic Governor Roy Cooper are essentially tied in this district, with Forest edging ahead by a single point. As this seat is to the right of the state, these results could be a hopeful sign for Democrats looking to carry the statewide races in North Carolina in 2020. For next week’s special rerun election race, however, much will depend on which side is more effective at getting its voters to turn out, and this race remains likely to be decided by a very small margin.

Poll Script:

There is a special election on September 10th for the US Congress. Are you likely to vote in it?

Already Voted Early/Absentee

Certain to vote

Likely to vote

Which of the following candidates for Congress in the September 10th special election are you most likely to vote for?

Republican Dan Bishop

Democrat Dan McCready

Libertarian Jeff Scott

Green Party candidate Allen Smith

I am totally undecided

Do you generally approve or disapprove of President Trump’s performance in office?

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

Thinking ahead to the 2020 election, if the presidential election were between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Republican Donald Trump

Democrat Joe Biden

I would be totally undecided

Thinking ahead to the 2020 election, if the gubernatorial election were between Democratic Governor Roy Cooper and Republican Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Republican Dan Forest

Democrat Roy Cooper

I would be totally undecided

What is your gender?

Male

Female

What is your race?

White

Black/African-American

Other race

What is your age bracket?

18-29

30-49

50-69

70 and older

About RRH Elections:

RRH Elections is a Republican-leaning Elections Blog that discusses electoral politics, not policy, with particular attention to congressional and state races. We cover electoral news daily and provide insight into the electoral landscape. Using our in-house expertise, we have produced ten polls, eight of which have predicted the margin in their races to within four points. RRH Elections is run by a team of 9 unpaid hobbyists, all with no connection to any candidate or group active in this race. Funding for this poll comes entirely from the donations of our readers. If you enjoyed this poll, please visit our site and donate so that we may bring you more surveys like it in the future. Our site can be found at http://rrhelections.com. To contact us for comments or questions about this poll, the best way is by email at rrhelections@gmail.com.