Despite the European commission chief’s ambitions, opposing national interests may mean some policies will remain slogans

Never mind the Brexit. If Jean-Claude Juncker had a message for the UK in his state of the union speech on Wednesday, this was it.

“[Brexit] is not the be all and end all,” the European commission president said, devoting around two minutes to the trauma of Britain’s EU exit in an address that ran for one hour and spanned a range of topics from geopolitics to fishfingers. “The wind is back in Europe’s sails,” he declared. And it appears the EU is sailing in a more federalist direction.

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This was an ambitious bid for deeper integration. No more Europe à la carte, special deals and opt-outs. Under Juncker’s vision, joining the euro currency and passport-free Schengen zone would be the norm. All would join in a European defence union. More decisions would be taken by qualified majority votes, including on sensitive areas such as tax.

Europe would have a single president: Juncker’s job of leading the EU executive would be merged with the presidency of the European council of EU leaders. Juncker said he was sympathetic to transnational candidates standing in European elections – ie MEPs representing Europe, rather than a specific region.



Some will conclude Brexit has freed Europe to fulfil its long-suppressed federalist dreams. Ukip’s Nigel Farage, who heckled Juncker in the chamber, denounced the plans, saying: “Thank god we are leaving.” Despite the Eurosceptic dystopia of a rampant Brussels, however, a European superstate is not on the cards.



Juncker had barely left the podium when Denmark’s prime minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, slapped down the idea of a super EU president. “Let’s not mix roles and competences,” he said.



Other institutional engineering is also likely to fail – even Juncker’s own political family, the centre-right European People’s party, does not support the idea of transnational MEPs.



When it comes to big policies, Juncker is not the decisive voice. While he favours an EU army, European defence remains in the hands of national governments. The European defence union is more slogan than policy, although efforts are under way to pool spending.

The future of the eurozone will also be decided by France and Germany. Their positions remain at odds, with France’s Emmanuel Macron looking for more ambitious ways to share debt. Meanwhile, Ireland is likely to resist any attempt to deny it powers to veto EU tax policy.

Sovereignty-minded countries are not going to keep quiet just because the UK has gone. Underlining this reality, the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, described Juncker as a “romantic”, tartly noting that people with vision should see an eye doctor.

But the biggest obstacle to Juncker’s plan comes from central Europe. Juncker avoided naming Poland or Hungary when he spoke of European values and the rule of law. But in the near future, authoritarianism is the biggest threat to unity. Even without the UK on board, it will be a stormy voyage for the EU ship.