󰂩 󰁃󰁯󰁰󰁹󰁲󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴 󰀲󰀰󰀱󰀳 󰁗󰁁󰁕󰀡 󰁁󰁬󰁬 󰁲󰁩󰁧󰁨󰁴󰁳 󰁲󰁥󰁳󰁥󰁲󰁶󰁥󰁤󰀮

󰀱

21

st

Century NNR Scarcity –

Blip or Paradigm Shift? Introduction

Episodes of temporary nonrenewable natural resource (NNR) scarcity have occurred as a consequence of “commodity boom/bust cycles” since the inception of our industrial revolution over 200 years ago.

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Robust demand for fossil fuels, metals, and nonmetallic minerals during a commodity cycle “boom period” typically drives up costs/prices as increasingly expensive resources are exploited – thereby causing NNR scarcity – which temporarily suppresses NNR demand until incremental affordable NNR supplies can be brought online – t hereby alleviating NNR scarcity, and simultaneously decreasing NNR costs/prices and re-stimulating NNR demand… Since the beginning of the 21

st

century, however, we have experienced an episode of global NNR scarcity that is unprecedented during our modern industrial era with respect to:

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Magnitude

– the number of globally scarce NNRs;

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Scope

– the size of t he impacted industrialized and industrializing population; and

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Duration

– the time interval during which global NNR scarcity has persisted. At issue: is our current episode of global NNR scarcity simply another temporary commodity cycle “blip”; or does it signify a permanent “paradigm shift” in global NNR demand/supply dynamics?

Blip: We Have a Temporary Cyclical Problem

Genesis:

We are in the midst of an unusually protracted “boom period” – the duration of which is subject to debate – within an unusually protracted global “commodity boom/bust cycle”, which has been driven by inordinately high Chinese NNR requirements/demand over the past decade or so in their efforts to industrialize. As a result of this histor ically unprecedented commodity boom period, we are experiencing a temporary imbalance in global NNR “demand/supply dynamics” – specifically, a protracted but temporary Chinese led “demand-side surge” in conjunction with a protracted but temporary delay in the global mining industry’s “supply-side response”.

Projected Resolution: