BRACE for a Brownlow count like no other.

As previously unbackable favourite Gary Ablett was ruled out for the season yesterday, markets and opinions fluctuated wildly as to whether the Gold Coast skipper would hang and take home Charlie for a joint record third time in September.

News_Image_File: Scott Pendlebury at Collingwood training. Picture: Colleen Petch

And as the dust settled on a tumultuous five days since Ablett’s shoulder was dislocated, Collingwood skipper Scott Pendlebury was the punters’ new fancy with the TAB slashing his odds to $2.75.

But the big mover has been Swans spearhead Lance Franklin, in from $81 a fortnight ago to just $17 last night after 27 goals in his past seven matches.

Ablett, who will miss seven home-and-away rounds, must defy history to win the medal with only two players — triple Brownlow champs Haydn Bunton and Ian Stewart — having missed four games and gone on to win.

TAB spokesman Adam Hamilton said Ablett had been the shortest-priced favourite ever in Round 16 when he was $1.60 to win last Friday.

“We’re certainly not ruling out Ablett, but history is against him winning now,” Hamilton said.

Who do you think will win the Brownlow Medal? Gary Ablett

Scott Pendlebury

Joel Selwood

Josh Kennedy (Syd)

Trent Cotchin

Someone else

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Working in Ablett’s favour is that many pundits’ choice as favourite in his absence is ineligible with Fremantle midfielder Nathan Fyfe controversially suspended for a bump in Round 2, while red-hot Cat Steve Johnson is also out of contention after a Round 9 infraction.

Past Brownlow winners were split on whether Ablett could hang on.

“It has now become a race again, but Gaz is clearly in the box seat. Particularly with Fyfe his most likely rival being ineligible, I think he might have enough,” 1988 champ Gerard Healy said.

News_Image_File: Josh Kennedy’s Brownlow Medal odds have shorten considerably. Picture: Phil Hillyard

“He’s probably got close enough to 25 votes already and that’s enough to win a majority of Brownlow counts. And even if he doesn’t hang on this year, I fully expect him to win a third medal because he’s got plenty of good footy left in him.”

Hawthorn champ John Platten won the 1984 Magarey Medal by a large margin despite having missed three games during the SANFL season.

Will Gold Coast make the finals without Gazza? Yes

No

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“If he missed three or four you’d think he’d have enough, but with this many it’s a tough one for him,” Platten said.

The 2002 hero Simon Black thought it was one challenge too far for Ablett.

“It would be a remarkable effort, but no, I don’t think he can,” Black said.

News_Image_File: Joel Selwood is an outside chance despite a runner-up finish last year. Picture: Michael Klein

“I know he’s been in the best (players) a lot, but his teammates have been really good around him this year, too. Maybe they’ve pinched a few votes.

Black’s former Lions teammate Jason Akermanis said it was unfortunate timing, but said he wasn’t surprised that footy’s physicality had finally taken its toll on Ablett.

“He’s such a super player ... but I’m a little surprised something hasn’t happened to him before this with how physical the game has become. He’ll be right (next year), but it’s hard for him now,” the 2001 winner said.

MEDAL MOVERS

PLAYER (ODDS LAST FRIDAY, MONDAY, NOW)

Gary Ablett ($1.60 ... $3 ... $6)

Scott Pendlebury ($7 ... $3 ... $2.75)

Josh Kennedy ($9 ... $5 ... $4)

Trent Cotchin ($31 ... $9 ... $9)

Joel Selwood ($17 ... $9 ... $9)

Dayne Beams ($21 ... $13 ... $11)

Travis Boak ($17 ... $13 ... $11)

Lance Franklin ($26 ... $17 ... $17)

Brent Harvey ($21 ... $17 ... $17)

Aaron Sandilands ($26 ... $21 ... $17)

CATCH ME IF YOU CAN ( Source: CHAMPION DATA)

24 - Gary Ablett (GC)

19 - Nat Fyfe (Frem)*

15 - Tom Liberatore (WB), Scott Pendlebury (Coll)

13 - Jimmy Bartel (Geel), Steve Johnson (Geel)*

12 Matt Priddis (WC), Joel Selwood (Geel), Aaron Sandilands (Frem), Marc Murphy (Carl), Sam Jacobs (Adel)

11 - Josh Kennedy (Syd), Travis Boak (PA), Nick Dal Santo (NM), Shane Mumford (GWS), Bryce Gibbs (Carl)

10 - Brent Harvey (NM), Callan Ward (GWS), David Zaharakis (Ess), Tom Rockliff (Bris)*, Rory Sloane (Adel)

*Ineligible due to suspension