February 27, 2015

Switzerland’s KOF economic barometer—a composite leading indicator for the Swiss economy in the next six months—fell from a revised 96.1 points in January (previously reported: 98.8 points) to 90.1 points in February, which marked the lowest level since December 2011. However, the result was slightly up from the 89.0 points the markets had expected.



The KOF Swiss Economic Institute commented that, “the current fall in our barometer is […] likely to mainly reflect the deteriorating sentiment of the survey participants in the light of the appreciating franc.” February’s drop was driven by a deterioration of business sentiment in all sectors of the economy. Manufacturing, construction, and activities related to domestic demand recorded the most pronounced decreases over the previous month.

The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) expects GDP to expand 2.1% in 2015. For 2016, the SECO sees economic activity strengthening and expects GDP to expand 2.4%. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank expects economic growth of around 2.0% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 1.1% in 2015, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel expects economic growth to accelerate slightly to 1.4%.