Guest post by David Middleton

Hurricane Irma is really bad. It may be the worst storm to hit the U.S. since 1935… But it is NOT the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. So… Why do they have to lie about this?

Hurricane Irma Is Now The Most Powerful Atlantic Ocean Storm In Recorded History Fresh off the back of the devastating Hurricane Harvey, the US is preparing for an even more dangerous storm – Hurricane Irma. With wind speeds of 300 kilometers per hour (185 miles per hour), Irma now ranks as the most powerful hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean. It is the second most powerful in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, behind Hurricane Allen in 1980 that hit the latter two with winds of 305 km/h (190 mph). […] IFL Science!

Does IFL stand for “I FLunked” Science?

Geography 101

The Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico are in the Atlantic Ocean, just as much as the Sargasso Sea is in the Atlantic Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico The Gulf of Mexico is a smaller part of the Atlantic Ocean, but it is the ninth largest body of water in the world. […] Deepsea Waters

Describing Irma as the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever recorded is like calling Ted Williams the all-time American league home run leader because he hit the most home runs at Fenway Park.

Among the 24 most intense Atlantic hurricanes since 1924, Irma is currently tied for second in wind speed.

Maximum Sustained Storm Year Winds (mph) Allen 1980 190 “Labor Day” 1935 185 Gilbert 1988 185 Wilma 2005 185 Irma 2017 185 Mitch 1998 180 Rita 2005 180 “Cuba” 1932 175 Janet 1955 175 Camille 1969 175 David 1979 175 Andrew 1992 175 Katrina 2005 175 Dean 2007 175 “Cuba” 1924 165 Isabel 2003 165 Ivan 2004 165 Hattie 1961 160 Hugo 1989 160 “Bahamas” 1929 155 Floyd 1999 155 Igor 2010 155 Opal 1995 150 Gloria 1985 145

And tied for 12th place according to atmospheric pressure:

Storm Year Minimum Atmospheric Pressure (hPa) Wilma 2005 882 Gilbert 1988 888 “Labor Day” 1935 892 Rita 2005 895 Allen 1980 899 Camille 1969 900 Katrina 2005 902 Mitch 1998 905 Dean 2007 905 “Cuba” 1924 910 Ivan 2004 910 Irma 2017 913 Janet 1955 914 “Cuba” 1932 915 Isabel 2003 915 Opal 1995 916 Hugo 1989 918 Gloria 1985 919 Hattie 1961 920 Floyd 1999 921 Andrew 1992 922 “Bahamas” 1929 924 David 1979 924 Igor 2010 924

“The Most Powerful Atlantic Ocean Storm In Recorded History” meme fits the narrative: Global warming is causing hurricanes to become more severe… Another lie.

Hurricanes are not increasing in severity

The National Hurricane Center’s hurricane climatology page has a handy list of Atlantic Basin tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes from 1851-2014. There is no statistically meaningful trend in hurricane frequency or severity.

While there might be a somewhat statistically significant increase in the number of tropical storms (R² = 0.2274), this could simply be due improvements in the detection and identification of storms at sea… There is no statistically meaningful trend in the numbers of hurricanes or major hurricanes.

There are also no statistically meaningful trends in the rates at which tropical storms are “blossoming” into hurricanes or major hurricanes:

Records are made to be broken

Irma came very close to breaking a wind speed record. So what?

The probability, pn(1), that the nth observation of a series xm= x1, x2, … xn has a higher value than the previous observations [pn(1) = Pr(xn > xi |i < n)] can be expressed as: pn(1)= 1/n provided the values in series are iid random variables. (Benestad, 2003)

In 1941, Ted Williams had a .406 batting average. He was the last major league baseball player to hit over .400. While each at bat had its own independent probability, if Ted Williams had 5 at bats in a game, he probably had 2 base hits. While Irma has less than a 1% chance of breaking Allen’s wind speed record, the sum of individual probabilities since 1924 indicate that it’s about time for that record to fall.

See sheet 1 of the following spreadsheet for expected record calculations:

AtlanticStormTotalsTable (1)

How did we ever survive the Medieval Warm Period?

If warmer waters inevitably lead to more severe hurricanes… How did humanity survive the Medieval Warm Period? Or the Minoan Warm Period? There must have been Category 9 hurricanes every year in 1000 BC!!! (/SARC)

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