In the next few weeks, the three-judge panel in the Texas redistricting case is expected to rule on claims about Texas’ 2013 congressional and state house plans. That will - at long last - set in motion the redrawing of the maps - and set the stage for a trip to the Supreme Court this fall.



So how might things play out?



Let’s start with the ruling itself. We don’t know yet how the court will rule on questions like whether there was intentional discrimination in the drawing of the 2013 maps or whether an additional minority district needs to be created in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. But, because many of the problems the court found in the superseded 2011 maps carryover to the 2013 maps, we know that the court’s ruling - or an order following shortly after - will enjoin (i.e., block) the state from using the current maps. That’s because although the state has had several months to correct the defects the court found in the 2011 maps, it hasn’t done so, either in the regular session or, at least so far, in the special session.



Under federal law, an order issuing an injunction is immediately appealable, and, in this case, because the Texas case is before a three-judge panel, an appeal would go directly to the Supreme Court. Texas would have 60 days after issuance of the injunction to file an appeal, but it likely would do so sooner. (It’s also theoretically possible that Texas would decide not to appeal but resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is probably more likely.) Given the impending start of the 2018 election cycle, Texas likely will ask for expedited briefing and argument. If the court grants it, the case could be argued in November or December.



In the mean time, a ruling on the 2013 maps will start the remedial phase of the trial - i.e., the redrawing of the maps. At the end of the trial on the 2013 maps, the court asked that parties about their availability for a remedial hearing at the end of August or in September. In a filing, the parties provided the court with a series of dates, but the likeliest date for a remedial hearing at this juncture looks to be some time between September 5-8 (assuming, of course, that the court has ruled on the 2013 maps by then). The current expectation is that the remedial hearing would take about two days.



But there are a number of variables that could impact the timing.



First, the normal and strongly preferred practice under Supreme Court precedent is for a state to be given the first opportunity to draw a remedial map. It is reasonable, therefore, to expect that the court would give Texas at least a short period of time to indicate whether the governor would be calling a special session on redistricting (or adding redistricting to the call of an existing special session). If Texas does hold a special session and adopt new maps, the remedial hearing will focus on whether Texas adequately fixed problems in the two maps. If the court changes the state’s remedial maps, that too could be appealed.



It’s somewhat harder to say how Texas will respond. On the one hand, it is difficult to think members of Congress, in particular, would want to leave their fates completely in the hands of courts - and equally difficult to imagine that Texas Republicans or their consultants don’t already have draft maps in their back pockets ready to go. After all, the range of possible outcomes for Republicans from redrawn maps range from merely bad to Armageddon scenarios.



On the other hand, it’s not inconceivable that Texas might simply decline to draw new maps - essentially putting all its eggs in the SCOTUS basket. If that happens, the three-judge panel would proceed to draw remedial maps on its own. But, Texas could ask the three-judge panel to put a hold on that process on hold while the high court reviews the underlying ruling. If, as is likely, the panel denies the request, Texas could ask the Supreme Court to put a hold on the process. Sometimes the Supreme Court grants such requests, as it did recently in the Wisconsin partisan gerrymandering case, and sometimes it does not, as happened in a racial gerrymandering challenge to North Carolina’s congressional districts.



So, in short, Texans could end up with a new set of maps (drawn by the Texas Legislature or drawn by the court or drawn by the legislature and then tweaked/modified by the court). Or the whole process could be put on hold by the Supreme Court rules on whether there are underlying violations that require redrawing of the maps.

In any event, maps may not be final until early 2018. That would mean, at a minimum, that candidate filing deadlines for state house and congressional races will be moved (and potentially much angst for those thinking about running for those offices). Depending on how long it takes for the Supreme Court to rule, it is possible that the entire March 2018 Texas primary might have to be moved or, in the alternative, that the primary might be held in two parts - one part for congressional and state house races and one part for everything else).

A mess, but welcome to Texas redistricting.