CNN's Barbara Starr has learned that the analysis, although preliminary, concludes the missile was from a Russian made BuK system, also known by NATO as an SA-11.





Starr heard the details of the analysis from a U. S. defense official who has direct access to the latest information but who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the information.





“We cannot say with complete certainty but we do not think the missile came from the Russian side of the border,” the official said. “All the indications are it was fired from inside eastern Ukraine. ”





We want to put together a solid picture







The initial assessment also suggests separatists thought they were shooting at a Ukrainian military transport plane.





The U. S. military and intelligence community expects by the end of this weekend to have a more definitive assessment of what happened. “We want to put together a solid picture,” on each element of the event, the official said. That assessment is expected to remain classified for now, but will be shared among NATO nations. It may eventually be shared publicly to show what the U. S. believes happened.





U. S. military intelligence analysts concluded it is only the SA-11 or another system known as the SA-20 that has the warhead, range and ability to shoot down the airliner. The Ukrainians are not believed to have an SA-20 system and there is no intelligence suggesting Russia ever transferred one across the border. However U. S. intelligence has concluded Russian separatists have a BuK system. The official says it’s not clear if they captured it from Ukraine OR it was transferred to them by Russia.



