Advanced stats are changing the game and leaving some big markets behind

By Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider | February 23, 2015

ALL-IN

Dallas mavericks Mavericks owner Mark Cuban is one of the NBA's foremost champions of analytics. A frequent panelist at Daryl Morey's annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, in 2011 Cuban appeared onstage sporting a T-shirt that said "Talk Nerdy To Me." In 2000, upon buying the team, Cuban reached out to his former Indiana University professor Wayne Winston, who (along with sports statistician Jeff Sagarin) created the first version of adjusted plus-minus. Later, Cuban brought in 82games.com founder Roland Beech, who was on the bench as the NBA's first "stats coach" when Dallas upset the Miami Heat to win the 2011 NBA championship. After that victory, former ESPN Insider John Hollinger highlighted Rick Carlisle as "unquestionably the most cerebral and stat-friendly of the league's 30 head coaches." Carlisle cited lineup data as a key reason he made the move during 2011 NBA Finals to start J.J. Barea and use Brian Cardinal as a backup to Dirk Nowitzki. Cuban has usually been the loudest analytics voice on the player personnel side, and the results speak for themselves. The Mavericks have averaged 54 wins a season under Cuban, even if critics say his bold moves -- including the recent acquisition of Rajon Rondo -- aren't always supported by the numbers. Beech, who has been promoted to vice president of basketball strategy, continues to play an important role and now oversees three new analysts -- a ramped-up investment that became a talking point in the feud between Cuban and Houston general manager Daryl Morey, who suggested the Mavs were imitating the Rockets. Cuban's belief in the value of the physical-performance data tracked by Catapult Sports is so strong, he invested several million in the company last year, and Dallas has been a pioneer in investing in technology and new ideas on the health side, with Don Kalkstein serving as their full-time "psychology coach." "Analytics have been an important component of who we are since I walked in the door 15 years ago," Cuban told ESPN.com. "What's changed is that all teams now use all the data available to them to make personnel decisions, so the market has become more efficient. We have strived to introduce new and exclusive sources of data so that we can improve performance of our players."

Houston Rockets No single event has played a more important role in the NBA's analytics evolution than when Rockets owner Leslie Alexander brought in Daryl Morey to run basketball operations. It was a bold move. Morey had been a little-known VP with the Boston Celtics, where he did analytics work on the business and basketball sides, when Houston hired him in April 2006. (He wouldn't co-found the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference until the following year.) No team had previously turned over its operations to someone such as Morey. Only one other team has since hired a general manager who made his reputation in analytics. In 2013, the Philadelphia 76ers hired Sam Hinkie, Morey's right-hand man, away from the Rockets. Morey's now regarded as the NBA's leading proponent of analytics, but the GM gives credit to Alexander, calling him "the pioneer in bringing analytics to the NBA as the first team to fully commit to using it as a primary tool in all decision-making." Morey and the Rockets employed a staff of data experts well before most other teams had made a single hire. Despite seeing some of their top people move on, "the Rockets continue to increase investment in analytics people and systems to maintain a differentiation in this area," Morey told ESPN.com, "especially as XY SportVU data comes online and we try to stay ahead of the competition." Earlier in February, TNT analyst Charles Barkley called Morey "one of those idiots who believe in analytics" and questioned whether advanced stats had truly played a part in the acquisition of James Harden. In fact, the trade for Harden was the signature analytics-driven move of Morey's tenure, as Houston spent years accumulating assets via "arbitrage" moves and then grabbed Harden from Oklahoma City when the Thunder hesitated to offer their sixth man a max contract. Based on Harden's per-minute stats, Morey recognized his potential to become a superstar in a larger role. While the influence of analytics on the personnel side has long been obvious, it's only in the past three seasons that the Rockets have played the game on the court so differently from everyone else. More than any other team, with the blessing of coach Kevin McHale, they've emphasized high-value shots at the rim and beyond the 3-point line. According to NBA.com/Stats, 74 percent of their shots this season have either been 3s or at the rim, far higher than that of any other team.

PHiladelphia 76ers Philadelphia went all-in on analytics in May 2013, when a new ownership group led by Josh Harris and David Blitzer, who come from a background in private equity, hired Sam Hinkie as GM and president of basketball operations. While assistant GM with the Houston Rockets, Hinkie worked hand in hand with GM Daryl Morey to utilize cutting-edge statistical analysis and exhaust every avenue for building a competitive team. "I'm trying to use information to make decisions. The same way you do," Hinkie explained when he was introduced to the media. "You use analytics when you open your iPhone and try to figure out if it's going to rain today. All you're using is lots and lots of data, and it's helping you make an informed decision about whether you should bring an umbrella or not. That's the way I think about it." In some ways, the 76ers are closer than the Rockets to a pure experiment in team-building driven by analytics. Morey inherited a competitive Houston team led by stars Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, whereas Hinkie is starting from scratch in Philadelphia. While the Rockets rebuilt without falling out of contention, the Sixers' ownership group signed off on a complete teardown that resulted in a record-tying 26-game losing streak in 2013-14. All that losing is in the name of long-term benefit, as explained in a recent ESPN The Magazine feature. After acquiring two first-round picks before last week's trade deadline, Philadelphia could have as many as four in this year's draft to go with recent lottery picks Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel and Dario Saric. And the 76ers have stockpiled 15 second-round picks over the next six drafts by renting out their cap space to use in trades while hunting for steals. Hinkie has surrounded himself with executives with analytics-heavy backgrounds. He hired Ben Falk from the Portland Trail Blazers and Sachin Gupta, formerly of the Rockets, giving both promotions to vice president. Because the Sixers are still early in the rebuilding process, it's tough to see the influence of analytics on the court. But under Hinkie's hand-picked coach, former San Antonio Spurs assistant Brett Brown, Philadelphia is playing a fast pace and getting good shots. Only the New Orleans Pelicans have taken a higher percentage of their attempts at the rim this season, per NBA.com/Stats.

San Antonio Spurs During his diatribe against analytics on TNT earlier in February, Charles Barkley asked, "What analytics do the Spurs have?" The answer, Barkley might be surprised to learn, is plenty. Quietly, the Spurs have been leaders in applying and integrating analytics for years. The Spurs' famously fluid style of play comes in large part from the wisdom provided by the numbers. The Spurs get into their offense quickly and relentlessly seek out open shots from the 3-point line and at the basket. No team has attempted more corner 3s than the Spurs over the past decade, and under Gregg Popovich they've also excelled at taking away 3-pointers and shots at the rim, forcing opponents to the midrange. General manager R.C. Buford explained at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference how the Spurs had, years earlier, married Popovich's coaching instincts to analytics: "I think Pop got interested when he saw areas that weren't traditional basketball philosophy that were important to him supported by the data. He started asking different questions." The Spurs relied on consultants for years, and one, Gabe Farkas, was eventually made director of basketball analytics. The Spurs have one other full-time analyst and are known to utilize a number of outside experts and data services. The Spurs were early to recognize the value in SportVU player tracking, as one of the four original teams to install cameras in their arena and have used the data extensively. They also have been leaders in health, often resting players by cutting minutes and recording exertion in practice using Catapult Sports' GPS tracking technology. As an illustration of the depth of the Spurs' process, Buford explained how the team adjusted to the data and improved their defense after slipping to 11th in defensive rating in 2011-12: "I think we were valuing some things that weren't nearly as important as what the data showed. We learned from the Celtics on defensive rebounding. While they were really high in defensive efficiency, they weren't very high in defensive rebounding. It made us question, 'Is that really where we should be paying attention?' Those were discussions that were then brought to Pop from our coaches and from our analytics team. Some great discussions came from that that then led us to re-evaluate what's important for us."

BELIEVERS

Atlanta Hawks The Hawks' rise to the top of the Eastern Conference has been informed and fueled by statistical analysis. General manager Danny Ferry, currently on administrative leave because of the comments he read about Luol Deng on a conference call last summer, brought adjusted plus-minus pioneer Dan Rosenbaum to Atlanta in 2012 after employing him for several years in Cleveland when Ferry was GM there. It's a lean staff. Since the 2014 departure of Neil Paine, the former Basketball-Reference and ESPN Insider contributor who now writes for Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com, Rosenbaum is the only regular analytics employee, other than interns, and he has maintained his day job in the economic-policy division of the White House's Office of Management and Budget. Still, Rosenbaum's influence is felt, as Ferry and assistant GM Wes Wilcox have relied heavily on his input. Rosenbaum's work played a large role in the crucial acquisitions of newly minted All-Stars Kyle Korver and Paul Millsap, and the Hawks have continued to make savvy decisions about whom to go get and whom to let go. Like Ferry, coach Mike Budenholzer came from a San Antonio Spurs culture that makes statistical analysis part of the decision-making process. Budenholzer's staff gets high marks for their openness to input and for enhancing the on-court value of the roster, and likewise the front office listens to "Coach Bud" -- in fact, he's a lead decision-maker in Ferry's absence. The Hawks are now considered Spurs East, and the DNA they share includes a healthy respect for what the numbers say about how to build a team and how to play.

Boston Celtics Boston is a leader in analytics investment. Before he was the "Dork Elvis" of analytics, Daryl Morey got his NBA start with the Celtics. Upon departing for the Houston Rockets, Morey left Boston's analytics department in the hands of Mike Zarren, a lifelong Celtics fan and a fixture at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference who has risen to assistant GM. Zarren was a leading candidate for the Philadelphia 76ers' GM job that eventually went to Sam Hinkie. On the coaching side, Brad Stevens made headlines at Butler by hiring former ESPN Insider contributor Drew Cannon to crunch numbers, and Cannon made the move with Stevens from college to the Celtics. Stevens is one of the coaches most interested in advanced stats, even as he tries to avoid the stathead label. The biggest question about Boston is how much president of basketball operations Danny Ainge ultimately believes in statistical analysis. Ainge's scouting instincts guide his decisions, and he tends to rely on his son Austin, the team's director of player personnel, more than the analytics department. On the other hand, Ainge's dogged pursuit of star talent and the high value he places on draft picks -- Boston will have as many as 10 first-round picks over the next four years -- follow from the numbers, indicating he has been willing to listen to Morey and Zarren. "I like our group of people," Ainge told USA Today last year. "I love talking to them. I'm trying to teach them about basketball, and they're trying to teach me about analytics. And I think it's important, so I think it's all good."

Cleveland Cavaliers Cleveland majority owner Dan Gilbert and other members of the ownership group have finance-based backgrounds and have been willing to fund the growth of a Cavaliers' analytics department led by Jon Nichols and, until recently, Ben Alamar (now the director of production analytics at ESPN). As sources note, Gilbert aspires to have the best of everything and will spend to win. Under former general manager Chris Grant, the influence of analytics was muted, but his replacement, David Griffin, has championed statistical analysis during his days with the Phoenix Suns and now the Cavs. As Charles Barkley could tell you, it doesn't take a stats wizard to value LeBron James, but Griffin's acquisitions of Kevin Love, Timofey Mozgov, Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith were solid moves by the numbers, as were the decisions to let go of recent lottery picks Dion Waiters and Anthony Bennett. Coach David Blatt has proved receptive to the far larger amount of statistical resources at his disposal in the NBA as compared to coaching in Europe. "I believe in [analytics] and their usefulness, and I understand the limitations of them as well," Griffin told the Cleveland blog Waiting for Next Year. "It's something we believe very strongly in. Because ownership supports us to such a huge degree, we can invest in those processes."

Detroit Pistons Don't be fooled by the grumbling he did about stat geeks in his two years as a panelist at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference: Stan Van Gundy is a believer in well-done analytics, and few coaches are as informed about the concepts developed by the statistical community. By the numbers, Van Gundy was an especially savvy coach in Miami and Orlando, and his tenure in Detroit has reinforced that rep. He has demonstrated the power a coach can have over shot selection, especially when he has final say in player personnel. According to NBA.com/Stats, the Pistons attempted more midrange shots than 3-pointers in 2013-14. This season, they've attempted nearly two-thirds more 3s than shots from midrange, the league's second-highest ratio behind the Houston Rockets. On the front office side, Van Gundy and GM Jeff Bower have instilled an analytical mindset. They inherited respected analyst Ken Catanella, who was brought on board to build an analytics department not long after the ownership group led by Tom Gores purchased the team in 2011. Van Gundy promoted Catanella to assistant GM and has devoted additional resources to the growing department.

Golden State Warriors Overall, you might describe the Warriors as "cautious believers" in analytics. Their large, diverse front office -- which includes two primary owners, plus Jerry West, GM Bob Myers and other prominent voices -- is unlikely to be in complete agreement about anything, but a key segment of the organization led by co-owner Joe Lacob speaks up on behalf of data. "I'm a great believer [in analytics], we're great believers in always listening and trying to integrate statistics with what we see," Lacob told Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury-News in 2012. "We want to be on the cutting edge, but you can't be all statistics because that doesn't tell the whole story." Lacob's son, Kirk, oversees analytics as assistant GM. Golden State employs the expertise of Silicon Valley to make sense of the massive data set provided by SportVU camera tracking (the Warriors were one of the first six teams to pay for SportVU), relying on local startup MOCAP Analytics. Despite Golden State's investment, a handful of sources around the league expressed skepticism that the Warriors have gleaned as much from SportVU data as they have publicly claimed. The heady acquisitions of defensive stoppers Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala and Draymond Green speak to Golden State's respect for the numbers. Iguodala was third in the NBA in real plus-minus last season, and this season the Warriors have four of the top 30 players on the RPM leaderboard -- Stephen Curry (No. 1), Klay Thompson, Bogut and Green. New coach Steve Kerr has brought an improved offensive scheme and an open mind to his early tenure, and he has proved willing to make adjustments based on feedback from the Warriors' analysts.

Memphis Grizzlies In 2012, the Grizzlies made a bold splash in the analytics world when they hired ESPN's John Hollinger as vice president of basketball operations. Hollinger's pioneering work in advanced stats had brought him into the orbit of Jason Levien, the Grizzlies' CEO, who valued analytics. When principal owner Robert Pera ousted Levien in 2014, the team's analytics focus was in doubt, but Pera retained Hollinger, who continues to play an important role under general manager Chris Wallace. Beyond Hollinger, the Grizzlies haven't invested as much as some other teams, though they have recently been looking to add analytics talent. Many of the Grizzlies' moves in the past two years have been shaped by the numbers. The Grizzlies famously traded away Rudy Gay, featured efficient stars Marc Gasol and Mike Conley in more prominent roles, retained Zach Randolph on a team-friendly deal, extended defensive stalwart Tony Allen and acquired Kosta Koufos and Jeff Green -- all analytics-informed moves. They have been rewarded with a trip to the 2013 Western Conference finals and the NBA's third-best record this season. Even smaller recent moves show the influence of analytics. Memphis selected UCLA guard Jordan Adams and Tennessee forward Jarnell Stokes, two players whose statistical projections exceeded the scouting consensus, in the 2014 draft, and signed plus-minus favorite Vince Carter as a free agent. Wallace, the founder of "Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook" known for his emphasis on scouting in his roles with seven NBA teams, has been receptive to advanced stats. He originally hired Aaron Barzilai, who subsequently served as director of analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers, as a consultant in 2009. Coach Dave Joerger's reputation as a believer in analytics is overstated because of his youth and the contrast with predecessor Lionel Hollins, who came out against analytics after the Gay trade. But with the help of more shooting on the perimeter, Joerger has gradually moved Memphis toward a more efficient style of offense without sacrificing the Grizzlies' grit-and-grind mentality. He has Memphis in contention in the tough Western Conference.

Oklahoma City Thunder The tight-lipped Thunder say little publicly about analytics, but their track record demonstrates they are, on the whole, believers. GM Sam Presti, a panelist at the inaugural MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in 2007 while working in the San Antonio Spurs' front office, established an analytics department when he joined the then-Seattle SuperSonics later that year. Presti's first analytics hire was Ben Alamar, who later worked for the Cleveland Cavaliers and is now director of production analytics at ESPN and the author of "Sports Analytics." These days, Oklahoma City employs Jesse Gould as director of basketball research and analysis with another analyst below him. Financial resources have been a limitation for the Thunder's analytics efforts, though they were one of the original four subscribers to SportVU camera tracking. As well-versed as Presti is in analytics concepts, his draft picks have run the gamut statistically. Andre Roberson, a surprising first-round pick in 2013, was a statistical darling. But Presti has also been willing to draft players with limited statistical profiles, such as 2010 second-round pick Ryan Reid and 2014 first-rounder Josh Huestis. In contrast to Presti, coach Scott Brooks does not rely on statistical concepts. In particular, Oklahoma City has been more willing to concede 3-point attempts on defense than other analytics believers. Still, Brooks recently told Bleacher Report, "I'm getting more into analytics -- I think it's important."

Portland Trail Blazers Among NBA head coaches, nobody has made better use of statistical analysis than Portland's Terry Stotts. Having used statistics in his formative years as an NBA coach under George Karl with the Seattle SuperSonics, Stotts saw the power of analytics when he worked as an assistant coach for the Dallas Mavericks with Roland Beech under analytically minded Rick Carlisle. "Going back to Seattle, I did my spreadsheets," Stotts told ESPN The Magazine in a 2013 feature. "But when we hired Roland, that took it to another level." When the Blazers hired Stotts, he opened his coaching meetings to then-basketball analytics manager Ben Falk, who had been working primarily on player personnel. And before the 2013-14 season, he rebuilt Portland's defense around preventing high-value shots at the rim and beyond the 3-point line. Timed with the addition of rim protector Robin Lopez, the scheme helped the Blazers jump from 26th in defensive rating in 2012-13 to 16th last season. Despite Lopez missing two months this season, Portland has jumped into the league's top five in defensive rating. No team in the NBA allows fewer high-value attempts. GM Neil Olshey admittedly comes from a more skeptical background. His former team, the L.A. Clippers, made little to no investment in analytics. But Olshey was won over by Falk's analysis. "When I got hired in Portland," he told ESPN.com, "I realized Ben Falk was the smartest guy in the room, and it was probably a good idea if I listened to him once in a while." While Falk's departure for a larger role with the Philadelphia 76ers was obviously a blow to the Blazers' analytics department, Olshey promoted Zach Williams (who worked under Falk) and thus is attempting to maintain the Blazers' momentum.

ONE FOOT IN

Charlotte Hornets Consider the Hornets one of the league's most improved teams in terms of analytics. They had essentially made no investment in the field when Rich Cho arrived as general manager in 2011. Cho's engineering background (he worked at Boeing before going back to law school and joining the Seattle SuperSonics as an intern) gives him an analytical mindset. One of his first major projects with the Sonics was building a database that compiled player statistics and scouting reports. Cho has built a staff of four in the analytics department and upgraded the team's internal database. With Michael Jordan as owner, however, Cho doesn't get the last word on decisions. According to a source familiar with Charlotte's inner workings, the voice that MJ relies on most is that of Curtis Polk, an analytics agnostic who conducts Jordan's business affairs and serves as the Hornets' vice chairman. And with pressure from Jordan to accelerate the Hornets' efforts to contend, the team made the ill-fated decision to sign Lance Stephenson over the objections of the analytics staff. While not a true believer, coach Steve Clifford is versed in the concepts of statistical analysis (he's known to drop references to per-possession stats with the media). Like most coaches from the Van Gundy tree, Clifford employs a style of play that is analytics-informed. So far, that has translated on defense but not on offense, where the Hornets have been dependent on midrange jumpers because of their personnel.

Indiana Pacers The fundamentals of the Pacers' defense, the NBA's best on a per-possession basis in 2012-13 and 2013-14, were built on statistical principles. With the guidance of basketball analytics coordinator Ryan Renteria (a retired hedge fund manager), head coach Frank Vogel designed a scheme to protect the basket (taking advantage of Roy Hibbert's size and ability to contest without fouling) and the 3-point line, forcing opponents to the midrange. This season's drop-off without Paul George demonstrates the importance of personnel, but the scheme remains sound. On the front office side, Indiana GM Kevin Pritchard is a former player and scout who believes in advanced stats, having instituted an analytics department while with the Portland Trail Blazers that grew into one of the league's best. In addition to Renteria, who works primarily with the coaching staff, the Pacers also employ manager of basketball administration Spencer Anderson as a full-time analyst. While Pritchard is a believer, president of basketball operations Larry Bird, who has final say on personnel moves, is more skeptical. Bird has historically favored the scouting process, drafting a series of older prospects -- Brandon Rush, Tyler Hansbrough and Solomon Hill -- with mixed results. But Bird's scouting eye also paid off in the form of 2010 draft picks Paul George and Lance Stephenson. (Disclosure: I served as an analytics consultant for the Pacers between 2010 and 2012.)

Miami Heat When analytics skeptics point out that coaches have been using numbers for decades, Miami Heat president Pat Riley is commonly cited. As coach of the Los Angeles Lakers, Riley famously devised his own efficiency rating for players. He passed that interest along to protégé and Heat coach Erik Spoelstra, who speaks the language of analytics. Riley devised a system the Heat still use today to grade each defensive possession based on 54 criteria, focusing on the process of executing the team's system rather than the results. The evaluations are done by Brian Hecker, Miami's director of basketball information technology, who's responsible for getting the pertinent numbers to Spoelstra. In addition to lineup data, Spoelstra also has relied heavily on the simulation model developed by analyst Bob Chaikin. He has worked for the Heat since 2008, following a stint as a consultant for the team during the 1990s, when Riley first arrived in South Florida as coach. "I look at [stats] to evaluate our team, to compare us to other teams, particularly defensively, where we stack up against the best," Spoelstra told NBA.com in 2011. "I also use it to make points to the team about things we need to improve. I use it also for scouting, when we're trying to come up with a game plan for the opponent." Riley's fondness for statistical analysis doesn't seem to have carried over to his player personnel work as team president. Miami has regularly punted valuable draft picks in favor of stacking the bench with fading veterans. The Heat's success, including three titles in the past decade, has made it easy to justify sticking with an old-school approach. To get back to that level, Miami's front office may have to embrace details like analytics and international scouting that have gone neglected.

Milwaukee Bucks Under a new ownership group led by Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry, the Bucks have been ramping up their analytics efforts as part of a larger overhaul of the organization. That includes such far-flung efforts as hiring a "facial coding expert," the benefits of which are in doubt, as well as more conventional methods. Milwaukee had already put more emphasis on statistical analysis since hiring David Morway as assistant GM in July 2013. (Disclosure: Morway hired me as a consultant while GM of the Indiana Pacers.) Vantage Sports, which provides unique metrics based on detailed video tracking, announced a partnership with Milwaukee last summer. The aptly named Michael Clutterbuck serves as the Bucks' director of basketball analytics. Clutterbuck replaced Jon Nichols, who left for the Cleveland Cavaliers before the 2013-14 season. Edens and Lasry, who come from the financial world, have allotted additional resources to growing the department. In his second season on the sidelines and first with Milwaukee, Jason Kidd has developed a reputation for being information-oriented and utilizing analytics to communicate with his players. "We've made significant investments in technology and data over the past year and a half to become an extremely informed team, whether it is draft-related, personnel-related, or just game day preparation," Milwaukee GM John Hammond told ESPN.com. "We're at a point where we can ask almost any question and get a numbers-based answer very quickly. Our ownership is into it, our coaches were into it since their first day here, and I'm into it."

Orlando Magic Orlando GM Rob Hennigan is a natural fit in the rising generation of executives who marry a scouting eye with a respect for analytics. Given his age (30 when hired by the Magic in 2012, Hennigan is still the NBA's youngest GM) and experience with two leading organizations (the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder), it makes sense that Orlando CEO Alex Martins cited Hennigan's "utilization of analytics in the decision-making process of player personnel" as one of the reasons he was chosen. Hennigan has hired an analytics-friendly staff, bringing in Matt Lloyd, who stood out during his time with the Chicago Bulls by embracing statistical analysis, as assistant GM and George Rodman from the Spurs' organization to serve as basketball operations manager. Another staffer, David Bencs, has transitioned from applying analytics to the business side of the organization into a role as basketball analytics manager. The Magic's rebuilding process has been slow to produce results. Earlier in February, Hennigan fired coach Jacque Vaughn less than three years after hiring him. While Hennigan's moves have sometimes been informed by analytics and the roster abounds in young prospects, the team has yet to find a cornerstone star or develop a coherent roster or defensive philosophy.

Phoenix Suns In recent years, Phoenix has worked with several industry leaders responsible for conveying basketball analytics to a larger audience, including real plus-minus co-creators Jeremias Engelmann and Steve Ilardi, John Ezekowitz (who has written for FiveThirtyEight) and Zach Bradshaw (now with ESPN). The Suns employ an unorthodox front office in which the business and basketball sides of the organization share analytics resources, as overseen by Zaheer Benjamin, VP for business planning and basketball analytics. According to sources, that structure has led to tension and miscommunication between the two groups. But a source familiar with the Phoenix front office says the organization has begun to work through the issue, with more dedicated analysts available to basketball operations. Suns GM Ryan McDonough comes from a scouting background, but his formative experience with the Boston Celtics has given him an appreciation for statistical analysis, and assistant GM Trevor Buckstein gets high marks for his understanding of analytics. "It's been a tool for me," McDonough told SportsBusiness Daily after being hired in Phoenix in 2013. "In Boston, we were at the cutting edge of some of that stuff, and certainly guys like Daryl Morey and Mike Zarren were smarter and further along with it than I am. I learned a lot and we're trying to emphasize that here." Suns coach Jeff Hornacek, an accounting major at Iowa State, has followed through on a promise to Grantland's Zach Lowe to improve the team's shot selection. Phoenix had the league's fourth-highest ratio of midrange attempts to 3-pointers in 2012-13, but the fifth-lowest ratio in 2013-14, Hornacek's first season at the helm.

Sacramento Kings When new owner Vivek Ranadivé and new GM Pete D'Alessandro arrived in Sacramento in 2012, they inherited a front office that had been left behind by the analytics movement. Their attempts to catch up have been fascinating. Leading up to the 2014 NBA draft, the Kings announced their plan to "crowdsource" statistical projections for what they called Draft 3.0. As documented in a pair of short films on Grantland, the Sacramento front office brought in a handful of applicants to provide feedback during the draft process. Having seen what amateurs had to offer, the Kings opted months later to hire the most experienced possible candidate: Pioneer Dean Oliver was the NBA's first full-time statistical analyst with the Seattle SuperSonics and later worked for the Denver Nuggets before joining ESPN as director of production analytics. "I couldn't think of a better person to be part of this thing," D'Alessandro said in October 2014 when introducing Oliver, who was named director of player personnel and analytics. "To me, it's almost like a player acquisition in some ways. I feel really happy about it." Hiring one analyst -- even one as qualified as Oliver -- doesn't automatically make the Kings "believers." The key for any team is how well it integrates analytics into its decision-making process, and the Kings have been puzzling on that front. In the past nine months, they've drafted Nik Stauskas despite red flags in his defensive statistics, let Isaiah Thomas walk in free agency and changed coaches twice. Ranadivé's attempts to bring Silicon Valley business principles to Sacramento have led the Kings down blind alleys, as detailed in this ESPN The Magazine story. New Kings coach George Karl, who took over during the All-Star break, worked with D'Alessandro and Oliver in Denver. While Karl often seems an analytics skeptic, his interest in statistics dates back to playing for the late Dean Smith at North Carolina. Smith pioneered possession-based stats in the 1950s, long before he was a coaching legend.

Toronto Raptors A detailed 2013 Zach Lowe feature on Grantland pulled back the curtains on the Raptors' front office, revealing not only a strong analytics team making creative use of SportVU data but also tensions about how to put those insights into action. Shortly after that story, Toronto hired Masai Ujiri as GM, replacing Bryan Colangelo, who sources say had allowed a rift to develop in the organization. Outside sources who know Ujiri describe him as a creative thinker, talented scout and good manager, but not a champion of analytics. While with the Denver Nuggets, he worked with Dean Oliver but opted not to replace him after Oliver left the organization for a role at ESPN. With the Raptors, Ujiri retained consultants Alex Rucker and Keith Boyarsky, who built the SportVU interface Lowe detailed along with team staffer Eric Khoury. "It's a great part of the game to know," Ujiri told the National Post in 2013. "I think the NBA is trendy. I don't want to say it's the trend now. But that's the nature of us. I think analytics are a huge part. We have a good department that studies the game that way. I study the game that way." Ujiri's moves in Toronto have given mixed signals about the role of analytics. He quickly traded overpaid Andrea Bargnani and Rudy Gay for high value, but was also willing to trade then-underrated Kyle Lowry for a meager package to begin rebuilding. Only when the New York Knicks declined a proposed Lowry deal did it become apparent that the Raptors had built an unexpected winner. The structural issues in the organization have had the unfortunate effect of painting coach Dwane Casey as an archaic stat-hater, which is misleading. He worked closely with Oliver as an assistant coach in Seattle and Roland Beech as part of Rick Carlisle's staff in Dallas and gets high marks from both for being open to using analytics.

Utah Jazz For years, under the pairing of coach Jerry Sloan and GM Kevin O'Connor, the Jazz successfully played an old-school style that featured few 3-pointers. In year 3 under new GM Dennis Lindsey, Utah has stepped away from the Sloan model, building a new culture -- modeled off the San Antonio Spurs -- that features analytics in an important role. The Jazz hired their first full-time analytics employee last summer and also have relied on outside resources. They've worked with the BYU statistics department, and count among their consultants two prominent writers. Like Lindsey, first-year head coach Quin Snyder spent time in the San Antonio organization. He also served under former Spurs assistant Mike Budenholzer last season in Atlanta. Snyder has encouraged his big men to work on 3-point shots rather than long 2s, and the Jazz's shot-distribution stats have improved at both ends of the court. "You're playing a percentage," Snyder recently told the Salt Lake Tribune. "You're going to give something up. Do we want to give up this shot in this situation? Or would we rather give up this shot? I think that helps drive a lot of our decision-making or confirm it."

SKEPTICS

Chicago BULLS The Bulls' front office has long been based on old-school scouting concepts, but it does employ a manager of basketball analytics, Steve Weinman. Coach Tom Thibodeau has shown interest in Weinman's work and called him "terrific" in 2013. The Bulls coach was mentored by Jeff Van Gundy, who's well-versed in analytic concepts. Thibodeau expressed a cautious perspective on analytics in a 2013 interview with CSN Chicago, saying, "I think there is a place in our league, and I think it's good. It may be getting overplayed somewhat right now. I think the trained eye is very important, but numbers are a part of the equation." Thibodeau's innovative defense excels at preventing 3-pointers, and while Chicago's offensive shot chart isn't optimal, the team traded many long 2-pointers for 3-pointers after Thibodeau's arrival. The Bulls' executive duo of John Paxson and Gar Forman stems backs to the Jerry Krause era and bases its decisions on scouting, not analytics. Paxson and Forman emphasize character and pedigree -- when looking at numbers, they are, according to one observer familiar with the front office, as likely to look at how often a prospect attended class as they are his advanced stats.

Denver Nuggets A few years ago, the Nuggets were leaders in the analytics field. In 2006, then-GM Mark Warkentien hired Dean Oliver as director of quantitative analysis before most teams had invested anything in analytics. But Warkentien left Denver in 2010, and Oliver followed him out the door in 2011, joining ESPN. The Nuggets didn't replace Oliver until last season, when new general manager Tim Connelly added Tommy Balcetis as manager of analytics. As ESPN's Kevin Arnovitz detailed in a feature on the Denver organization last November, ownership is hesitant to spend top dollar on the front office. And while Balcetis had experience in the financial sector, he was a newcomer to basketball analytics. To the Nuggets' credit, their 2014 draft shined by the numbers. Two of their picks (centers Jusuf Nurkic, taken 16th overall, and second-round pick Nikola Jokic) rated in the top five of my WARP projections. Nurkic has already paid dividends, claiming Denver's starting center job as a rookie. Additional savvy moves like that could rebuild the Nuggets' reputation in terms of analytics.

Los Angeles Clippers The Clippers have moved from nonbelievers to skeptics over the past year. With new owner Steve Ballmer's willingness to spend, the Clippers hired Jud Winton as director of analytics and former Houston Rockets intern Greg Peim. Assistant director of scouting Jason Piombetti, who previously was the team's liaison to the analytics community, is also a believer. The problem is the lack of buy-in from coach Doc Rivers, who is also the president of basketball operations, running the front office along with Kevin Eastman, Dave Wohl and former general manager Gary Sacks. None of the four has demonstrated much faith in basketball analytics, although Rivers has become an enthusiastic champion of Harvard professor Dr. Charles Czeisler's research on the value of sleep for NBA players. He's built the team's schedule around Czeisler's insights. On the player acquisition side, the Clippers have tended to go after players with poor numbers who are overrated based on Rivers' experience with them. Byron Mullens, who had 25 points and 18 rebounds against the Celtics in 2012-13, signed with the Clippers the following season. That pattern has continued with the acquisition of former Celtic Glen Davis, former Eastern Conference stars Danny Granger, Antawn Jamison and Hedo Turkoglu and, most recently and infamously, Doc Rivers' son Austin Rivers. With their new staff, the Clippers could rise in our ratings in the future, but only if their analytics efforts aren't undone by Rivers and a skeptical front office.

Minnesota Timberwolves As head coach, president of basketball operations and a minority owner, Flip Saunders carries great weight in the Minnesota organization. While one source described Saunders as an analytics enthusiast, there is little actual evidence of this -- in fact, of the NBA "skeptics" in our ratings, the Wolves were the team most often singled out as "old school" by our sources familiar with their operation. Minnesota was an early adopter of SportVU player tracking, installing cameras in the Target Center for the 2011-12 season in a project spearheaded by manager of basketball analytics Matt Bollero. But that effort predated Saunders' return to the Timberwolves organization. In particular, according to a source, Saunders eschews analytics in terms of game planning, and he favors inefficient shot distribution. Only the Washington Wizards -- Saunders' former team -- have a higher ratio of midrange attempts to 3-pointers. That's not a new trend. In Saunders' 17 seasons as an NBA head coach, only the 2005-06 Detroit Pistons attempted 3s at a rate higher than league average. On the personnel side, Saunders has tended to favor draft picks whose potential outstrips their past production. While Shabazz Muhammad showed promise before his recent injury (good PER, but low real-plus minus), 2014 lottery pick Zach LaVine is the league's lowest-rated player by real plus-minus, with Timberwolves teammates Chase Budinger and Anthony Bennett just ahead of him.

New Orleans Pelicans Relative to most teams in the "skeptics" tier, the Pelicans have invested heavily in analytics. Director of basketball operations Shane Kupperman manages the department, which added former Houston Rockets intern Somak Sarkar last season and also has made use of outside consultants. Still, it's challenging to find examples of how analytics have penetrated New Orleans' decision-making, and sources confirm that GM Dell Demps and coach Monty Williams are not engaged in incorporating advanced stats. Despite the widespread existence of research indicating players on rookie contracts are more cost-effective, the Pelicans have tried to accelerate the process of building around star Anthony Davis by trading lottery picks for veteran players. Demps dealt their 2013 (No. 6) and 2014 (No. 10) picks for Jrue Holiday, then traded this year's pick (top-three protected) for Omer Asik. The last lottery pick the Pelicans did keep, Austin Rivers, the 10th pick in 2012, had weak numbers coming into the league and failed in New Orleans before being traded away in January. The cumulative effect of the Pelicans' misuse of draft picks has been to deplete the team's depth. Beyond their top six players (by minutes played), the Pelicans' bench has combined to rate 2.8 wins worse than replacement level. Williams' offense relies heavily on relatively inefficient isolation plays. Per Synergy Sports, only the Cleveland Cavaliers have finished more of their plays out of an isolation. Meanwhile, Williams has struggled to craft a defensive scheme that prevents high-percentage looks. Despite the presence of big men Asik and Davis, the Pelicans have allowed far more shot attempts at the rim than any other team in the NBA.

Washington Wizards The Wizards' front office has shown moderate interest in analytics, which is more than their coach has shown. Before the 2013-14 season, Washington promoted Brett Greenberg to director of analytics/salary-cap management. In that role, Greenberg has worked with consultant Joe Sill, who won the 2010 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference research paper grand prize for his key improvements to adjusted plus-minus models. On the court, Washington lags in terms of applying the lessons of analytics to its shot chart even in the midst of the team's best season since 1978-79. The Wizards' ratio of midrange shots to 3-point attempts is the second highest in the NBA. That would be understandable if Washington struggled from beyond the arc, but the Wizards rank fourth in the league in 3-point percentage (37.4 percent). As a result, Washington is just 10th in the benefit derived from 3s, as measured by ESPN's 3-point index, far lower than it could be. Personnel is a factor in the Wizards' limited use of the 3. They've played traditional big men rather than floor spacers. However, point guard John Wall has taken the fifth-most 2-pointers beyond 15 feet this season, per Basketball-Reference.com, and coach Randy Wittman is comfortable with this arrangement. "We're going to take open shots," Wittman told the Washington Post during the preseason. "If a team wants to give us midrange open shots, we're going to take them. I'm going to tell a guy that has a wide-open 15-foot jumper to take three steps back and shoot a 3? I'm not going to do that."

NONBELIEVERS

Brooklyn NETS Earlier this season the Nets hired former Kansas City Royals intern Glenn DuPaul, giving the newcomer to basketball statistics and recent college graduate the title of "director of analytics." Still, our sources familiar with the Brooklyn front office indicate that ownership is behind the team's investment in analytics, while GM Billy King has little interest. Dating back to his time with the Philadelphia 76ers, King has consistently undervalued draft picks in favor of expensive free-agent contracts. The Nets don't own their first-round pick outright until 2019, having traded the maximum number of picks in that span to the Boston Celtics along with the right to swap picks this year (with the Atlanta Hawks) and in 2017 (with the Celtics). King infamously tossed a barely protected lottery pick to Portland for Gerald Wallace, allowing the Blazers to nab Damian Lillard. Brooklyn coach Lionel Hollins' reputation as anti-analytics, which stemmed from clashing heads with a new Memphis Grizzlies front office including analytics star John Hollinger, might be somewhat overstated. Hollins has bristled at input from the front office, but he's not completely opposed to statistical analysis. "I'm going to take a breath," Hollins told the New York Post, "and say it's the dumbest thing I've ever heard because every coach uses stats. Now, do I understand some of the stats that are out there that are new? No. But I can learn them."

Los Angeles Lakers The Lakers were the only NBA team without a representative at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, symbolic of their disregard for advanced stats. Two years later, they say they have begun to take steps toward adopting a new approach, but the progress is invisible so far. Former Lakers head coach Rudy Tomjanovich and his son, Trey, have been providing basic statistical analysis to the front office for years, but it's only recently that the Lakers have invested in an analytics department. GM Mitch Kupchak told ESPN.com that SportVU data has "changed this whole business" and that he has brought aboard a group of four employees to interpret the data. But the Lakers were slow to embrace SportVU data, not being willing to pay for the cameras before the NBA stepped up and installed them in every arena. And while Kupchak indicated most SportVU analysis is directed toward the coaching staff, with assistant coach Mark Madsen as a conduit, it's hard to find any evidence of Byron Scott putting those insights in play on the court. Scott's preseason declaration that he doesn't believe an offense heavy on 3-point attempts wins championships runs counter to statistical analysis and recent history. Following through on Scott's directives, the Lakers are taking the NBA's third-highest percentage of their shots from the midrange, the least efficient area of the court. No on-court metrics supported signing Kobe Bryant to a two-year, $48.5 million extension coming off Achilles surgery. Bryant provided just 0.1 win shares during the first season of that deal before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery, a major reason the Lakers are on pace to set a team record for fewest wins since moving to Los Angeles in 1960 for the second straight season.

New York Knicks As the analytics movement picks up steam, Knicks president Phil Jackson remains a conscientious objector. In a recent interview in the New York Times, he questioned the staying power of statistics-based offensive trends emphasizing spacing and 3-point shooting. "I think it's still debatable about how basketball is going to be played, what's going to win out," the Zen Master said in defense of the triangle offense, which encourages the more traditional type of play Jackson admires. With their lavish budget, the Knicks have proved willing to spend over the years, including nominal investments in analytics. The Knicks subscribed to SportVU before it went league-wide, have utilized Catapult technology and employ a director of analytics, Mike Smith, with an assistant. Smith's background is in video rather than statistical analysis, however, and our sources cast doubt on how interested the team's decision-makers really are. Director of player personnel Mark Warkentien, who hired analytics pioneer Dean Oliver when he was with the Denver Nuggets, is a believer, but Jackson calls the shots and coach Derek Fisher is running Jackson's offense. In Jackson's first season in charge, New York has been an embarrassing flop, in part because the Knicks have completely reversed their style of play from two seasons ago. The 2012-13 Knicks won 54 games and set an NBA record for 3-point attempts and makes. This season's Knicks lead the NBA with the highest percentage of shots from midrange, giving New York the league's least efficient shot distribution.