VANCOUVER—Any political party dreaming of forming the federal government in 2019 is going to need a solid understanding of B.C. and what matters to its residents, experts say.

That’s most apparent in 2015 federal election results where 70 ridings were won with just five per cent margins or less and nine of those ridings were in B.C.

While Quebec and Ontario have long-been considered the central battlegrounds which ultimately decide the federal election, if a race is expected to be close — and a party’s priority is not in growing a majority and perhaps creating a minority government — then nine ridings within five points becomes critical.

That’s according author and political scientist, David Moscrop, who was referencing numbers in The Hill Times article on Sunday.

“If you get a competitive province with a significant number of seats, then all of a sudden, that province becomes a battleground,” Moscrop said in an interview. “It looks like it goes Ontario, Quebec, B.C. as the one-two-three for swing seats.”

At a time when wooing British Columbia is essential to the Liberal party’s chances in the fall election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s party is tanking. The Conservatives are ahead in the polls for every province in the country, with the exception of Quebec.

The federal focus on B.C. has grown over the last decade: Moscrop pointed to issues in the national spotlight such as the carbon tax, fentanyl trafficking, China relations, real estate, and trade while explicitly noting the province is routinely a national economic leader.

Of the 70 ridings that were won by a margin of five per cent or less, 28 were in Ontario, 22 in Quebec, nine in B.C., four in Alberta, three in Manitoba, two in Saskatchewan and one each in Newfoundland and Labrador and New Brunswick, according to The Hill Times.

The current Liberal majority is “comfortable” but not “massive,” Moscrop said, and that’s why those nine B.C. seats are going to be crucial, especially come October.

The Liberals could theoretically steal seats from the NDP — who took 16 ridings with margins of five per cent or fewer as compared to the Liberals 34 and Conservatives 15 — or even the Conservatives. In the meantime, the party is lagging behind in Atlantic Canada, where they swept in 2015, and Moscrop noted poll numbers are dropping in Quebec as well.

“(If) the Liberals can bolster Quebec or Atlantic Canada, gain a bit in B.C. while the Conservatives gain in Ontario, then all of a sudden B.C. becomes the king maker,” Moscrop said. “As we watch the polls roll in across the country, you could imagine an election night in which it comes down to B.C.”

But, he added, the Liberals have not done well on the West coast historically. More importantly, the current narrative around resource politics has become so poisoned and toxic that it’s battered the party’s chances in the province.

Moscrop said the question is about whether the Liberals will be able to create a majority government or squeak by with a minority. The latter wouldn’t be unprecedented: Several ruling majority governments became minorities four years later.

Martyn Brown is a former B.C. Liberal — a provincial party that has no ties to the federal one and is often aligned with small “c” conservative values — and was chief of staff for the province’s premier during the 2000s.

According to him, the power base has been shifting from central to Western Canada over the last decade. Brown expects that to continue as the province continues to grow. He pointed to marked population growth, economic diversification, resource policies, and global name recognition that is attracting immigration which he argued makes the province “very competitive” with metro areas of Toronto.

He predicted that within a decade B.C. will be an even greater force with more seats in the House of Commons and more clout in government than the province has had before.

And while the region should be fertile ground to gain support, Brown said it likely won’t be productive for the Liberals. He’s publicly called for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down and argued that the party’s greatest challenge is authenticity.

“It’s a problem of authenticity on reconciliation, on climate action, on clean energy, and on housing,” he said. “Trudeau’s exposed himself as a pretty face with a great family name but someone who doesn’t have the policy prescriptions to the opportunities and challenges.”

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