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“It’s a dog fight,” said Mr. Pantazopoulos, a conservative pollster. “The largest takeaways are it was a three person race. I think Rob Ford is falling behind and doesn’t have much room to grow, or any room to grow. It’s going to be a race between John Tory and Olivia Chow.”

He found that among people who are more likely to vote — which he says are the older and wealthier — Mr. Tory “holds an impressive lead.” The poll found Mr. Tory had 34% support among men who are over 55 and 39% among women over that age bracket. He garnered 36% support among people who earn more than $100,000 a year.

Ms. Chow was most popular among those earning less than $100,000, and among women under 55. Mr. Ford and Mr. Tory were tied among 18 to 34-year-old men.

“The quote unquote angry old white male is not voting for Rob Ford in significant numbers,” said Mr. Pantazopoulos, referencing the segment of the population that typically votes for bread and butter issues and wants candidates to stake out strong positions. “John Tory is catching that vote as well as their female counterparts.” He called the number of undecided voters “pretty low” for municipal politics.

Mr. Pantazopoulos said Maple Leaf paid for the poll itself out of interest. He has polled for Prime Minister Stephen Harper. His resume includes polling for Liberal BC Premier Christy Clark during the last provincial campaign, during which he worked with Nick Kouvalis, a member of Tory’s campaign. Mr. Pantazopoulos said Mr. Kouvalis had no involvement in this mayoral poll.