Update as of April 6, 2020: The expected mortality rate has dropped greatly for Alabama and for much of the nation. These projections were updated by the IHME on April 5. Alabama fell from first in expected death rate to 21st in the nation. Read more here.

No one knows what will happen in the coming weeks and months of the coronavirus pandemic. Alabama has already seen more than 1,500 confirmed cases of the virus and 26 confirmed deaths.

But some estimates predict a more dire situation here, as a recent epidemiological model shows Alabama could have the highest per capita death rate in the country, and the fourth highest total death count.

If the worst were to happen - if Alabamians refuse to follow social distancing measures, the state’s intensive care units become overfull with the most ill coronavirus patients, or even if people here are unlucky - nearly 10,000 Alabamians could die from COVID-19 by the middle of next month.

That’s according to projections released earlier this week from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. IHME released projections for every U.S. state on April 1, and will continue to update them.

The projections show Alabama could suffer anywhere from 849 deaths to 9,624 by as early as May 16. Those are the state’s low and high projections, according to the data. The mean, or average, projection, shows the state could see 5,516 deaths by May 16, when the projections say the death rate would flatten.

That number is the fourth highest in the country - ahead of much more populous states like California, Pennsylvania and Illinois.

According to new estimates, Alabama is projected to have the 4th most coronavirus deaths in the country. | graphic by Ramsey Archibald

Alabama’s high total deaths projection of 9,624 is the 6th highest in the country. Its low projection of 849 is 14th highest.

New York had the highest mean projection. More than 16,200 New Yorkers are projected to die of the virus by early May - and that’s just the mean. On the high end, IHME predicts as many as 21,000 could die there.

The projections put the mean death toll for the United States at 93,531 on July 15.

But Alabama’s estimated deaths per 10,000 people, based on the mean projection from IHME, is by far the highest in the country. The data suggests 11 in 10,000 Alabamians could die from coronavirus in the next few months. The next closest state, New York, has a projected death rate of eight in 10,000.

A handful of other Southern states rank highly for potential total death tolls. Florida is second behind New York with a mean projection of 6,897 coronavirus deaths by the end of June. Texas is next, with a mean projection of 6,392 deaths before Independence Day.

The data shows Alabama could see anywhere from 15 to 500 deaths per day when the virus is projected to peak on April 19 - just a couple of weeks away. The mean projection predicts 300 Alabamians will die from the virus on that day.

These numbers are stark, but are actually lower than some earlier projections indicated.

Early warnings said anywhere from 40 to 70 percent of the U.S. population could contract the virus, and the death toll was expected to be high. AL.com produced a video on March 16 with a rough estimate of how many could fall ill here, and how many could die, if no mitigation efforts were made. This is in line with recent projections from the White House, which cited more than a million and maybe more than two million could have died if residents did not stay home and slow the spread. Instead, current White House estimates range from 100,000 to 200,00 dead.

You can watch the video below.

These projections are a moving target - no one knows how many people will get sick, or how many will die. IHME plans to update its projections on April 4th with new data. IHME also provides projections on the number of hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators that are available and will be needed in each state. You can explore their projections for yourself here.

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