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Canada’s economy may soon endure something it hasn’t faced in 68 years: A recession without the U.S. in the same boat.

That’s the view of Jim Mylonas, global macro strategist at BCA Research Inc. in Montreal, a firm that’s been making calls on markets and economies since 1949. Mylonas says the surge in household debt combined with rising interest rates will push the Canadian economy into recession, even while the U.S. economy continues to grow.

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I think we're just on the precipice of embarking on a serious recession Jim Mylonas, global macro strategist at BCA Research

“I think we’re just on the precipice of embarking on a serious recession,” Mylonas said in an interview from Bloomberg’s Toronto office. “It’s not a matter of if, but when.”

For Mylonas, the irony is that surprisingly strong growth in the U.S. this year may push Canada over the edge. The expansion will force the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz to raise rates, he said. The debt-laden Canadian consumer is ill-equipped to handle higher borrowing costs, unlike their U.S. counterparts who dialled back borrowing following the housing crash a decade ago.