ASHEVILLE - State legislative districts in Buncombe County are extreme partisan gerrymanders and must be quickly redrawn along with most General Assembly districts, a judicial panel has said as part of landmark ruling on how North Carolina political maps are created.

But what does that mean exactly for voters and candidates of Buncombe's three House and two Senate districts?

Shifting lines definitely mean some voters will find themselves in new districts in the 2020 elections.

The result could be Republican candidates finding themselves less competitive in districts now drawn in ways that the judges said improperly enhanced the chances of GOP wins.

It will also mean some Democratic districts will become more moderate, according to Chris Cooper, a Western Carolina University political science professor who served as an expert witness for plaintiffs in the Common Cause v. Lewis case decided unanimously Sept. 3 by the three-judge state panel.

"Will it change the partisan distribution? I don’t know. But I think the lines will better represent the voters," said Cooper following the decision. "And we know politicians behave differently when they are in more competitive districts."

On Sept. 5, GOP leaders appeared to be moving forward to redraw the maps by Sept. 18, as ordered by the judges. That comes despite continued criticism by some Republicans who said the majority party's maps were within the bounds of the law.

"The decision contradicts the plain language of the Constitution and the unambiguous precedent of the N.C. Supreme Court," said Sen. Chuck Edwards of Hendersonville, who is running for a third two-year term in District 48. That district includes all of Henderson and Transylvania counties as well as southern Buncombe.

Ruling is on state seats, but could affect also affect congressional districts

The state ruling came after the U.S. Supreme Court decided June 27 it was not the job of federal courts to police political line drawing.

That left the door open for state courts to look at whether mapmakers had gone too far in trying to achieve partisan advantage.

It's not clear how far new maps could shift GOP control of the General Assembly in upcoming elections. Just a year after that, in 2021, the majority party will again be responsible for drawing new lines that reflect changes in the U.S. Census. Those lines will be for both General Assembly and Congressional districts.

House districts

Democrats represent Buncombe's three House districts. No 2020 challengers have yet emerged:

114th - Includes county's center, covering most of Asheville. Represented by Susan Fisher.

115th - Buncombe's north and east. Represented by John Ager of Fairview.

116th - Covers a large portion of the county's south as well as the west. Represented by Brian Turner of Biltmore Forest.

The gerrymandering techniques used in the three districts were "packing" and "cracking," according to plaintiffs' experts, whose opinions were reflected by the judicial panel.

"The mapmaker packed the most Democratic (voting districts) in and around Asheville into House District 114, in an effort to make House districts 115 and 116 as competitive for Republicans and possible," according to the opinion.

More:Asheville finally gets answer: City will act to stop Republican districts, council members say

Cracking happened in places such as Warren Wilson College, a small liberal arts institution that was split between the 114th and 115th districts.

Eliminating those techniques could provide a map that better reflects Buncombe voters, said Blake Esselstyn, an Asheville expert on gerrymandering who was the second WNC resident after Cooper to play a key role in the statewide case.

"If you unpack some of the deep blue areas of the 114th into each of the other districts, you would probably have three safe Democratic districts," Esselstyn said.

Fisher called the Tuesday decision "incredibly positive and important" for voters who she said felt disconnected from the electoral process for a decade.

"This decision has the potential to give them back their vote so that they are choosing their representation rather than the representatives choosing their voters," she said.

Turner said both Democrats and Republicans have abused map drawing power and the judges' orders would serve as "guard rails."

"I think the folks drawing maps historically, they have essentially lost the benefit of the doubt that they are doing this in a fair and transparent way," said Turner who has co-sponsored bipartisan legislation to reduce gerrymandering through measures such an an independent redistricting commission. "We have seen years of delay, deception and manipulation."

The judges' order says lawmakers can't look at past election results when creating lines, though they have to adhere to federal Voting Rights Act anti-discrimination rules. They also must conduct all the hearings in public "with any relevant computer screen visible to legislators and public observers."

Map drawers may make "reasonable efforts" to avoid putting two incumbents in one district, they said.

Turner said that could serve to stop "malicious double bunking." Maps in 2011 put Fisher and fellow Democratic House member Patsy Keever into the same 114th District.

Ager noted that one of the judges was Republican and said the decision was a testimony to government separation of powers.

But the eastern Buncombe representative said anti-gerrymandering efforts should continue.

"I think we should still push for a districting commission and take it out of the hands of the political parties as much as possible," Ager said. "I know that would have the support of most citizens in North Carolina."

Senate districts

Buncombe's two Senate seats already have candidates lining up:

48th - All of Henderson and Transylvania counties and the southern part of Buncombe, including a piece of Asheville. Represented by Republican Chuck Edwards. Democratic challengers are Mills River Town Councilman Brian Caskey and former state Democratic Chair Patsy Keever of South Asheville.

49th - Most of Buncombe, including the center and north. Represented by Democrat Terry Van Duyn of Biltmore Forest who is not running in order to campaign for lieutenant governor. Candidates are two Democrats, City Councilwoman Julie Mayfield and Asheville attorney Ben Scales.

New maps could bring less dramatic changes to Senate districts that lean heavily Republican and Democratic.

Simulations of 1,000 likely maps generated by plaintiff expert University of Michigan professor Jowei Chen found the districts were "extreme partisan outliers," judges said.

"Dr. Chen’s findings demonstrate the packing of Democratic voters into

Senate District 49 to make Senate District 48 a safe Republican seat."

Even if the Buncombe districts stay represented by the same parties, new lines should have the effect of helping voters in the political minority, said Cooper, the WCU professor.

"The idea is that you will hew closer to your voters, if you need their votes," he said. "If you’re in a noncompetitive situation, you might pay less attention to the will of the voters in your district."

Reactions from Buncombe lawmakers, candidates

114th House District

Rep. Susan Fisher, D-Asheville

"This was an incredibly positive and important decision for the voters of North Carolina. They have felt so disconnected from their votes for the last 10 years and this decision has the potential to give them back their vote so that they are choosing their representation rather than the representatives choosing their voters."

115th House District

Rep. John Ager, D-Fairview

"It is a great decision for anyone favoring an end to election rigging in North Carolina, and I think other states will now take a look at their constitutions and try to get a similar ruling. U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts suggested that the issue was better taken up in the states, since the states have the power to draw election districts."

116th House District

Rep. Brian Turner, D-Biltmore Forest

"I’m very encouraged by the court’s decision. And as someone who has sponsored legislation for nonpartisan districting, I'm supportive of that effort. I’m also glad that the courts have put essentially some guardrails on the process. Because I think the folks drawing maps historically, they have essentially lost the benefit of the doubt that they are doing this in a fair and transparent way."

48th Senate District

Democratic candidate Brian Caskey

"Make no mistake, the decision of the Wake County Superior Court in the Common Cause v. Lewis case is a tremendous win for democracy. The court-mandated redrawing of the legislative maps will result not in Democratic-leaning maps, and not in Republican-leaning maps, but in fair maps."

Sen. Chuck Edwards, R-Hendersonville

"I disagree with the decision. The decision contradicts the plain language of the Constitution and the unambiguous precedent of the N.C. Supreme Court. The General Assembly followed the redistricting requirements set out by the N.C. Supreme Court in the Stephenson case, and this decision changes those requirements."

Democratic candidate Patsy Keever

"The judges’ decision is a win for all North Carolina voters. It is way past time for voters to have a real choice in who represents them. It returns democracy to North Carolina."

49th Senate District

Sen. Terry Van Duyn, D-Biltmore Forest

"As a member of Common Cause, I lobbied my predecessor, Sen. Martin Nesbitt, to support an independent redistricting commission, and I am still committed to that. If new lines make districts 48 and 49 more competitive and representative of the people in the area, that is a good thing."