Purdue University and futures exchange operator CME Group CME, +1.47% asked farmers — among the groups hardest hit by China’s retaliation for U.S.-imposed tariffs that look set to increase once again — how confident they are that the Trump administration and Chinese delegates will reach a trade pact by July 1.

The prevailing answer? Not very assured, as shown by this chart, and the handful of others below.

Only 28% of the 400 survey respondents from around the U.S. felt that the dispute would be resolved before July 1, down from 45% who thought as much in March. However, 71% still feel the dispute will ultimately be resolved in a way that benefits U.S. agriculture. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows soybean exports are down more than 90% under the trade dispute and U.S. farmers lost nearly $8 billion in the past year as a result.

Read:U.S. trade deficit widens slightly in March even as gap with China falls to three-year low

Notably, the farmers were asked the Purdue survey question before Trump revived short-term trade pact uncertainty with a Sunday tweet, action that sent stocks SPX, +1.14% and most commodity markets reeling this week. Trump said Thursday that it’s still possible to strike a deal with China as key leadership rolls into Washington for late-week talks. The White House has threatened to raise tariffs on $200 billion in annual Chinese exports to the U.S. to 25% from the current 10% at 12:01 Eastern Time Friday.

Futures on soybeans US:SN9, which are the largest U.S. farm export to China, fell to their lowest levels in nearly eight months this week once Trump accused China of breaking their end of the broader trade bargain, which includes the administration’s hopes for greater technology rights protections. Soybean prices were down another 2% Thursday as producers worry China will increasingly pick up lost U.S. exports from Brazil and others, absent, or even with, a concrete trade pact.

Clearly, queried farmers and traders could be reflecting the uncertainty.

The survey is used to produce the monthly Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. It declined 18 points to a reading of 115 in April, down from 133 in March. The index of current conditions fell 21 points to 99, and the index of future expectations declined 16 points to 123. Some 74% of those polled believe it’s a bad time to invest in their farms, while 22% said it was a good time.

“Farmers are becoming increasingly anxious over their future financial performance,” said James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Producers have taken stock of their financial position and prospects for 2019 as they head into planting season and are concerned about the uncertainty arising from the on-going trade disputes with key ag trading partners. Right now it seems that producers are being cautious.”

But trade prospects are never a back-burner issue for the ag sector. In fact, the Purdue researchers wanted farmers to think beyond any head-to-head deliberations between China and U.S. The April survey also asked respondents if they think the U.S. should try to rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The 11-member deal, renamed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, which linked major economies in the Americas and the Asia-Pacific region, started at the end of 2018 — without the U.S.

About 47% of Purdue survey respondents favored rejoining TPP (the Obama administration had entered the U.S. into the pact), while 29% said they were not in favor of rejoining. Interestingly, one-fourth of respondents said they were uncertain whether or not the U.S. should rejoin TPP.

In January and February, Japanese beef imports rose 25% compared with the same months last year, driven by a 51% surge in frozen beef imports, The Wall Street Journal reported. The particular beneficiaries were Canada and New Zealand, all part of the new multilateral pact.

Farmer sentiment, and more broadly, trade sentiment, could factor more prominently in the months leading up to the 2020 election, especially if plunging soybean and other commodity prices continue to feature in the headlines in key political states, such as those highlighted in this graphic provided by Deutsche Bank, using census data.

Opinion:Dwindling population and disappearing jobs is the fate that awaits much of rural America