MOSCOW, January 16. /TASS/. Real incomes of the Russian population might drop by 10% if the crude oil price keeps at $40 a barrel in the next two to three years, the former Russian finance minister and the head of the Civic Initiatives Committee think tank Aleksei Kudrin told the Business FM radio station on Friday.

“With oil at $40 per barrel, real incomes will shrink by 3-5% (in 2015), and by up to 10% in 2-3 years,” Kudrin said.

Ex-finance minister added that the decrease will take place for the first time since 2000 and some whole social groups will feel the pain. “That’s why the government should realize that it cannot fully compensate [this fall], just like we managed to do it in 2009 when on average we did not face a decrease in real incomes,” Kudrin said.

“A shift to targeted aid using funds of budgets from all levels is one of the most important structural reforms on long-term agenda,” he added.