Only one match-up remains in the 2018-2019 NFL season, and it’s shaping up to be great one. In a clash between the established, dynastic Patriots and the cutting edge Rams, it’s anyone’s game. With this in mind, I simulated the Super Bowl 1000 times.

For the simulations, I used strength of schedule adjusted points scored and allowed per game for each team. Then, I averaged the expected performance of one team’s offense and the other team’s defense to arrive at a projected score for each team and simulated the match-up 1000 times. Here are the results:

Rams vs. Patriots (-2.5) T: 56.5

Game Rams Patriots Average Score 26.9 26.7 Chance of Winning 50.9% 49.1% Chance of Covering 58.9% 41.1%

Totals Average Total 53.7 Chance of Over 42.7% Chance of Under 57.3%

Value Picks:

Total Under 56.5

LAR +2.5

LAR ML +118