temp anomalies after warm oct-feb.png

This graphic shows the temperature anomaly for June, July and August after warm October to February periods. There were six years for this comparison.

(NOAA/William Marino)

There is another finding that points toward a warmer and drier than normal summer in Michigan.

Bill Marino, lead forecaster at the National Weather Service in Grand Rapids, examined all the years when each month from October to February was warmer than normal. That was the case this year.

Marino then looked at what the following summers were like in Michigan and he found strong evidence a warmer than normal and drier than normal summer is in store.

Yesterday I wrote about the switch from El Nino to La Nina that is now occurring. The summers during the El Nino to La Nina transition also tend to be warmer and drier than normal here.

So now there are two weather situations pointing toward eventually a great swimming summer.

The top graphic shows the June, July and August temperature anomalies following the six years with each month from October to February warmer than normal. In other words, the summers following an entirely warm fall and winter.

The summer months averaged close to 1.5 degrees warmer than normal in the orange squares of eastern Lower and northern Lower. The summers were even warmer in southwest Lower and the Lansing/Jackson area. Those areas averaged over 1.5 degrees warmer than normal. The biggest deviation from normal occurred in the eastern half of the U.P. where the six summers were almost 2 degrees warmer than normal.

These average numbers don't indicate it will be a torrid hot summer, but could be one that warm summer lovers really enjoy.

This is the precipitation deviation from normal for June, July and August following years when October through February were all warm.

Summer may be drier than normal

Not only are summers typically warmer than normal following the type of fall/winter we just had, they also tend to be drier than normal.

The graphic just above shows the precipitation deviation from normal for June, July and August after an entirely warm October to February period. In those past comparison years, Michigan's summer has been one to three inches drier than normal.

April and May are interesting too

We've been looking at summers after warm fall/winter periods. April and May are interesting too, and seem to be following with the historical playbook.

After entirely warm October to February periods, Marino sound Aprils were colder than normal. That is happening this year too.

And May? Well you might not want to know. Three of the six Mays were colder than normal, and two of those much colder than normal. One May had normal temperatures, and two Mays were warmer than normal.

So using the comparison method here, the month of May could go either way. But this does mean that if May turns out colder than normal, don't write off a warm summer.

If you have questions or comments, please post below.

MLive Chief Meteorologist Mark Torregrossa has been forecasting Michigan weather for more than 25 years. He's been chief meteorologist at three television news stations in Michigan, and he's an avid gardener and hunter. Email him at mtorregr@mlive.com and find him on Facebook at facebook.com/mark.torregrossa and Twitter @weathermanmark