The Liberals have dropped 5.4 per cent nationally over the last month, according to a new poll from EKOS — a statistically significant decline that’s benefited the Conservatives but likely wouldn’t translate into more seats.

From November 16 to 22, EKOS reached 1,949 Canadians and found — with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20 — the Liberals on top at 41.2 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 31.2, the NDP at 13.0, the Greens at 8.2 and the Bloc at two percent.

In October, the Liberals had 46.6 per cent support nationally, while the Conservatives were at 26.6.

Regionally, the shift appears to be largely in Alberta, where the Conservatives have risen to 58 per cent from 45.5 per cent last month. In Atlantic Canada, Ontario, Quebec and B.C., the Liberals’ lead remains strong.

“The Conservatives’ vote is so concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan right now, who are really unhappy campers,” EKOS President Frank Graves said. “But you can’t win a seat more than once. It wouldn’t be seat-efficient at all. Under the current system, the Liberals would win a wide majority with those numbers. I’m almost certain.

“Rona Ambrose is doing very well. Her approval ratings are way up and I personally believe she’d be their best bet for victory in 2019. I don’t think that’s the driver here, but the party seems to be moving in the right direction.”

Though Graves was hesitant to draw any definite conclusions, he said he sees other constituency shifts perhaps heralding something more significant on the horizon.

Men and the high school-educated, for example, have both moved from the Liberals to the Conservatives in the last month.

“I don’t think there’s anything that clear at this stage. This might be a reflection of the same kind of forces operating in Canada that produced Trump and Brexit, but it’s premature, obviously, to make that conclusion,” he said.

It could also be that a slew of negative headlines about so-called Liberal “cash for access” fundraising events are finally starting to tarnish the Liberal brand.

“I think that could bite them, but I’d be very surprised if that’s the key driver now,” Graves said. “It’s definitely an exposure for this government — their kryptonite is entitlement and the optics aren’t good.”

For the NDP, meanwhile, the bad news continues.

After polling at 14.1 nationally in October, the NDP has fallen to 13.0 and is now only 5.2 points ahead of the Greens.

“They could easily leap-frog past the NDP,” Graves said.

“For the NDP it can’t be very heartening.”