And now, a look at a very different kind of figure - and how no one else seems to have looked at it at all.

The cost to us alone will be about $3million to introduce that technology and research indicates that will correspond with a 40% decline in revenue ..." —Northern Star, 30th May, 2011

What research? The Ballina RSL Club's Bill Coulter wasn't telling the Lismore Northern Star.

But, like club managers up and down the country, he was telling his local paper that introducing mandatory-precommitment for poker machine players would spell financial ruin.

It's a well-orchestrated campaign that's largely flown beneath the radar of the national media. Some examples...

Mr Vaughan predicts the club stands to lose $15.5 million a year across its two Blacktown venues and its Parramatta branch, based on a predicted 40 per cent reduction in gaming revenue. — Blacktown Advocate, 11th May, 2011

Neale Vaughan of the Blacktown Workers Club, in Western Sydney's Blacktown Advocate.

And here's the Cowboys Leagues Club's Joe Kelly in the Townsville Bulletin

...if the new laws were introduced it could reduce the club's revenue by 40 per cent. — Townsville Bulletin, 2nd May, 2011

The Gold Coast Bulletin quoted local Federal MP Steve Ciobo:

"The average reduction in revenue will be up to 40 per cent..." — Gold Coast Bulletin, 18th June, 2011

And Port Macquarie News quoted City Bowling Club's Larry Collins

"We stand to lose 40 per cent of our revenue, and no business is sustainable with that degree of financial loss." — Port Macquarie News, 3rd June, 2011

The Toowoomba Chronicle told its readers that

Clubs could experience a drop of up to 40 per cent in revenue if the proposals become a reality. — Toowoomba Chronicle, 4th June, 2011

And South Sydney Juniors' Geoff Knight told the Southern Courier

"Our revenue will drop 40 per cent and no business can take that ... — Southern Courier, 17th May, 2011

But not one of those newspapers questioned that figure of 40% revenue loss, or asked where it came from.

And Four Corners didn't either

Bob Ebborn: if we had a reduction of 40 percent in our income here, the community would certainly suffer... — ABC, Four Corners, 20th June, 2011

So, where does it come from? Well, here's what the President of Clubs Australia, Peter Newell told the National Press Club, in March:

Peter Newell: The proponent of this deal has said himself the revenue impact would be up to 40 per cent..." — Peter Newell, President, Clubs Australia, 23rd March, 2011

Read Peter Newell's National Press Club Address

"The proponent of this deal" is the Clubs' arch-enemy, Tasmanian independent MP Andrew Wilkie. But this is what Mr Wilkie actually said, back in November, to the Launceston Examiner:

Mr Wilkie said the Productivity Commission put problem gambling revenue at 40 per cent of total revenue. "A mandatory pre-commitment scheme will diminish that 40 per cent figure, so the player expenditure reduction will be something between 0 and 40 per cent," he said. — Launceston Examiner, 24th November, 2010

Read the Launceston Examiner article

The very same day, Clubs Australia issued this press release:

Wilkie Comes Clean on Cost to Clubs... ClubsAustralia says Andrew Wilkie's admission this morning that his deal with the Prime Minister for a mandatory pre-commitment system will reduce club revenue by up to 40%... ...is the first time Mr Wilkie or Senator Nick Xenophon had quantified the size of the damage on clubs... — Clubs Australia, 24th November, 2010

Read the Clubs Australia Press Release

Well of course, saying the damage to clubs will be "between 0 and 40%" is hardly quantifying it. But within weeks, those two little words 'up to' had all but disappeared, and a 40% revenue loss became Clubs Australia's mantra.

As its media relations man Jeremy Bath told Media Watch just last week...

Wilkie said 40 per cent and we thought that's pretty close to the mark. — Jeremy Bath, Clubs Australia, 23rd June, 2011

But Andrew Wilkie has never said clubs would lose 40% of their revenue from mandatory pre-commitment. What he keeps saying is this:

Andrew Wilkie: The Productivity Commission finds, or found, that 40% of the money through the poker machines comes from problem gamblers. — ABC1, Four Corners, 20th June, 2011

If that figure is right, then all those problem gamblers would have to stop playing the pokies completely for the Clubs to lose 40% of their revenue.Yet the Clubs insist that on the contrary, mandatory pre-commitment won't affect problem gamblers at all.

Clubs Australia's CEO Anthony Ball told the ABC's Lateline that the revenue loss will come from...

Anthony Ball: ...casual gamblers like me. I like to play the poker machines every month or so. I'm not going to register for a licence and have my play tracked in some kind of Big Brother scenario. — ABC1, Lateline, 6th May, 2011

If he's right, then the Productivity Commission's 40% figure is completely irrelevant.

The truth is, no one's got a clue how mandatory pre-commitment will affect clubs' revenue. It might mean a 10% cut or it might mean 50. Of course lobby groups fighting their corner will use whatever figures best make their case. It's up to journalists to question the figures. But as this example shows, they all too rarely do.