This article is more than 7 months old

This article is more than 7 months old

Vladimir Putin has embarked on a sweeping reshuffle of Russia’s leadership, accepting the resignation of Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev and proposing constitutional amendments that would enable him to hold onto power even after leaving the presidency in 2024.

In a surprise move, Russia’s government said it would resign in full just hours after Putin announced plans for a national referendum that would shift power away from a successor to the presidency.

Putin’s shakeup sent shock waves through Russia’s political elites, who were left pondering what his intentions were and speculating about future cabinet appointments.

Timeline Putin's hold over power in Russia Show Hide Acting prime minister Boris Yeltsin sacks his cabinet and appoints Putin, a political neophyte who headed the main successor to the KGB, as his acting prime minister and heir apparent. Acting president Yeltsin stuns Russia and the world by using his traditional new year message to announce his resignation and hand his sweeping powers, including the nuclear suitcase, to Putin. President (first term) Putin wins a surprisingly narrow majority in his first presidential election, taking 53% of the vote and avoiding a second round run-off. President (second term) Putin consolidates his centralised control of power by cruising to a second term as president with 71% of the vote, having limited press access to his opponents and harassing their campaigns. Prime minister Putin is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term as president. The First deputy prime minister Dmitry Medvedev is elected in his stead. One of his earliest moves is to appoint Putin as prime minister, leaving little doubt that the two men plan, at the very least, to run Russia in tandem. President (third term) Amid widespread allegations of vote-rigging, Putin returns to the role of president, taking 63.6%. Medvedev becomes his prime minister. "Putin has named himself the emperor of Russia for the next 12 years," says protest leader Alexei Navalny. President (fourth term) Putin is re-elected until 2024 with 77% of the vote, amid high tensions between London and Moscow over the Salisbury nerve agent attack. Opposition activists highlight a number of cases of vote-rigging and statistical anomalies. Russia holds a yes/no referendum on various topics including a proposal to amend the constitution to allow Putin to seek another two terms in the Kremlin. The resolution passes, potentially allowing him to rule as president until 2036.

The president is laying the groundwork as he prepares for a transition in 2024 that analysts say will likely see him abandon the presidency but remain Russia’s dominant politician in a beefed-up role as Russia’s prime minister or in the government’s State Council instead.

The 67-year-old has in effect ruled Russia since 2000, making him the longest-serving leader since Stalin, and what he plans to do in 2024 remains the most important political question in the country.

In a televised speech before senior officials, Putin suggested amending Russia’s constitution to limit a future president to two terms in office – he has served four – tightening residency requirements for presidential candidates, and letting parliament choose candidates for prime minister and the cabinet, in effect weakening the presidency.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Vladimir Putin Dmitry Medvedev arive for a cabinet meeting on Wednesday Photograph: Dmitry Astakhov/SPUTNIK//EPA

Shortly after the speech, Medvedev said that Russia’s government would resign in full, allowing Putin to appoint new ministers. Medvedev, who also announced his intention to step down, was appointed to a new position as the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, which is headed by Putin. Russian media reported that government ministers were blindsided by the decision to resign.

Russia’s tax service chief Mikhail Mishustin has been chosen by Putin as Medvedev’s replacement, the Kremlin said later on Wednesday. The 53-year-old has worked in the government since 1998 and kept a low profile while serving as the head of the Federal Tax Service since 2010.

Putin presented his amendments to the constitution as a significant change to Russia’s governing document, and called for the first nationwide referendum since 1993 to confirm them. An elections official said within an hour of Putin’s speech that a referendum could be prepared as soon as the proposals to amend the constitution were formalised.

Margarita Simonyan, the head of the RT television station, wrote that “effectively, power in Russia is moving to the legislative branch”. Less credulous observers saw an attempt by Putin to lay the groundwork for a transition of power in 2024, when he should, under the constitution, step down from the presidency after serving two terms back-to-back as Russia’s head of state.

Profile Mikhail Mishustin – Putin's choice for PM Show Hide Vladimir Putin’s selection for Russia’s next prime minister is a loyal technocrat seen as a capable placeholder while the Russian president plans for his political succession. Mikhail Mishustin, 53, is the head of Russia’s tax service, credited with bringing digital tools to revolutionise the agency and help it crack down on tax evasion. His nomination came on Wednesday as Putin embarked on a sweeping reshuffle of the country’s leadership. Mishustin met Putin in the Kremlin where the Russian president “suggested to him that he take the post of the head of government” which he accepted, the Kremlin said. He will face a vote of approval in the Russian parliament within a week, which is almost certain to pass. Mishustin, a graduate of the Stankin Moscow State Technological University, has headed the tax service since being appointed by Putin in 2010, and also worked for the agency in the 1990s. He has also worked as the president of an investment company and as the head of a laboratory for a Moscow-based computer company. A recent profile of Mishustin in the Financial Times called him the “taxman of the future” and credited him with developing a real-time system “directed more at shopkeepers than oligarchs.” Mishustin is not thought to be among the likely candidates to be Putin’s eventual replacement, who have largely included powerful officials known to be longtime allies of the president, including city heads, members of his presidential administration, and even former bodyguards. Photograph: Sergei Karpukhin/X00944

“The main result of Putin’s speech: what idiots (and/or crooks) are all those who said that Putin would leave in 2024,” wrote Alexei Navalny, a vocal leader of Russia’s opposition.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Alexei Navalny in Moscow in December. Photograph: Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP via Getty Images

The question of whom Putin will name as his successor has been guessed at widely.

Alexey Makarkin of the Center for Political Technologies, a Moscow-based thinktank, said Putin’s constitutional amendments were an attempt to plan for his transition in 2024 and to reduce the focus on whom he would select as a successor by making that role less important.

“The president won’t be as dominating a figure [as Putin].” said Makarkin. “So the naming of his successor won’t be such a crucial decision.”

Few expect Putin will want to retire from public life, or that he could do so safely. Instead, he could become prime minister again, as he did in 2008, or follow political models from countries such as Kazakhstan, where the former president Nursultan Nazarbayev stepped down from the presidency last year but remained head of the security council and the ruling party.

“It’s still early to say what role Putin will play,” Makarkin continued. One option, he noted, would be remaining the head of the State Council, the body of top officials he addressed on Wednesday. But Putin’s remarks were a “distinct signal” that he would not remain president after his current term ends, Makarkin said.

Under term limits, Putin left the presidency for four years in 2008 in a tumultuous period during which Russia fought a war in Georgia, faced growing anti-Kremlin protests, and failed to block a Nato intervention in Libya. By 2012, Putin was back, and his temporary replacement, Dmitry Medvedev, no longer seen as a viable successor in the long term.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest An electronic screen installed on the facade of a hotel depicts Putin during his annual address to the Federal Assembly in Moscow on Wednesday. Photograph: Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters

Russia is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in 2021, and the proposed amendments would make it doubly important for Putin to hold a loyal majority in the State Duma, perhaps forging a formal relationship with United Russia, the country’s ruling party.

Despite enjoying full-throated support from United Russia, Putin has declined to take on a leading role in the party. United Russia has often served as a punching bag for public dissatisfaction, and the party’s rating slumped below 35% after Putin announced pension reforms last year.

Expectations for Wednesday’s speech, which was relayed on a handful of electronic screens around the capital, were high.

The speech focused heavily on the themes of poverty and social support, with Putin promising additional support for families with children, in an effort to raise the country’s birth rate and higher pensions.

Still, Putin’s plan for constitutional amendments received the most attention. In the speech, he also said future presidential candidates should not hold foreign citizenship or residency permits. Judges and federal agency heads should also not hold foreign citizenship or residency permits, he said.

• This article was amended on 16 January 2020 to correct the details of a picture caption. The electronic screen showing Putin was installed on the facade of a hotel, not a shopping mall.