Cliff Scotton was to a generation of New Democrats what Keith Davey and Norm Atkins were to their tribes: a teacher, a campaign genius and a mentor. Cliff had little patience for those who complained about the quality of candidates in either a national leadership contest or the most mundane local nomination snorefest.

He was a realist about the availability of political saviours. At the head table during executive meetings when members would whine about a candidate slate, in a dry sardonic stage whisper, he would mutter, “It would be nice if we had Jesus Christ in a toga or an aboriginal professor from Quebec and she spoke five bloody languages … but we have George, Pete and Sam! So shut up and choose goddammit!”

He focused on the importance of message not celebrity. He’d stare down someone encouraging the party to overwater its political wine and say, “Young man, if Canadians want that kind of thin beer they always have two better choices than us … Please don’t be so foolish.”

Some of each party’s activists appear to have forgotten these important lessons. Many Conservatives privately groan at the improbably petty behaviour of their leader. Liberals moan that their dauphin lacks gravitas. New Democrats worry about Thomas Mulcair’s likability. Each does have deficits. Get over it.

Far more important to focus on the vision they offer, on a platform that builds their brand. The Conservatives appear to be trying to squeeze one more victory with the limp plea that change is risky. “You may not like our guy, but he is competent,” is their call to arms. Given that no Canadian prime minister since Laurier has won four elections in a row — and even Conservatives would blush at the claim that Harper is a 21st-century Laurier — this seems a war cry unlikely to motivate even their own base.

Liberals are often more comfortable campaigning on the appeal of their messenger more than his message. They need quickly to understand that Trudeau fils may not merely be “his mother’s son” as the Ottawa insiders’ sneer has it, but thus far he surely is not his father — in courage, in conviction or experience. He desperately needs a message powerful enough to overcome his lack of “bottom” as the British would put it.

New Democrats have become skittish about putting a strong message about equality in their shop window. They have run as more caring Liberals in the eyes of some disheartened activists. Don’t even ask Western Greenies what they think about recent visions of environmental protection from the orange team.

Mulcair has the credentials of government. No one knows more about the fine — and the dark — arts of governing, after all, than Quebec Liberals. His political “bottom” is a hull of battle-hardened steel. He can bring those credentials in defence of a tough message on the economy and the environment and on taxation and equality. But he needs to have those messages in pulsing neon in his shop window soon to overcome the Canadian media’s pro-Liberal tilt and the heavy artillery of the Tory war machine.

Being the most visibly effective Harper-killer won’t cut it in those ridings where the party is traditionally third to Liberals. Liberals in Ontario and B.C. — where the next election will be won — have educated soft progressives to vote strategically. “Mr. Mulcair may be impressive, but you must hold your nose and vote for our admittedly unimpressive candidate if you really want to dump Harper,” will be the quiet doorstep message in suburban Toronto and Vancouver.

So to what should these leaders tie their futures?

Harper needs to move beyond economic credentials. They are, as analysts would say, already “priced into his stock.” He is facing real opponents for the first time in his life, apart from the late Jack Layton explosion in 2011 that almost overwhelmed him. Trudeau may not look like a statesman but neither is he the gormless Stéphane Dion or the unbelievable professor who “did not come back for you.” Mulcair has amply demonstrated that in street-fighting credentials Harper has met his match.

Harper needs to pivot from previous dead ends and demonstrate that he can learn and adapt. He should make selections from a suite of softer game-changers: a new honesty on climate change, a program on employment and integration for Canada’s vets that admits past failures, a believable job creation platform focused on the young and new Canadians that is not simply more blather about tax cuts, even an acknowledgement of his missteps on First Nations and a package on education and economic development would stuff one of the orange and red teams’ most damaging attack lines.

Trudeau’s strategic challenge, current poll numbers notwithstanding, is the biggest head-scratcher. He will be fighting a war on two fronts. He is the greenhorn against two tough and seasoned pros, each of whom has signalled that they will deploy their artillery against him from different sides of the battlefield.

He does have an energized and united party for the first time in a generation. But it is now 35 years since the Liberals have won a majority of Francophone votes let alone seats in Quebec. It is twice as long since they have won more than a dozen seats between Toronto and the Rockies. Redistribution may give them gains of ones and twos in several western cities. But Trudeau will need to move nearly 100 new seats into the win column for a majority, a swing achieved only twice in the past century.

He needs a galvanizing vision similar to his dad’s. In his first campaign Pierre Trudeau sold sex appeal, a contest in which his son has amply demonstrated his chops. But Trudeau the elder also sold a vision of a more global, confident Canada, a modern compassionate leader on the world stage. It matched perfectly the centennial bonhomie of a new generation of Canadians.

Trudeau needs a combination of economic achievement and social justice messages. The answer might be making Canada’s K-12 education achievement top five in the world within a decade, as a prod to productivity. Next might be reforming Canada’s pension mess through an early federal-provincial first ministers’ conference — similar to the ones where his dad first burst onto the national stage.

Mulcair’s challenge, according to the polls, is daunting. Scratch below the surface and it is perhaps less so. He appears to have a rock solid base of 50 seats in Quebec. No NDP leader has ever had such a cushion. He has the credentials of being a tough capable campaign performer. Many working journalists do have a pro-Liberal tilt, but they detest also Harper. They will promote whomever lands the most damaging blows.

Mulcair needs to demonstrate his economic savvy, buttressed by his green credentials with a believable climate change and economic development message. He needs to round out his social justice message to arrest soft progressives’ drift to the red team. The national minimum wage and universal child care planks were good beginnings. He needs big commitments on environment, First Nations, youth employment, education and pension reform to block Mr. Trudeau.

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If any of the leaders believes 24 Sussex is secure merely by delivering a small-ball, low-risk campaign they will be disappointed. Canadians are increasingly in a mood for change. We have endured a debilitating economic recession and a decade of hard-edged Conservative government whose legacy is division and little more. More than three out of five Canadians have never voted for Harper, and few of them will be easily moved to do so the fourth time out.

But we will reward the leader and party that deliver a vision of a new and different Canada most powerfully. If his opponents do not, ironically, that could be Stephen Harper.

Robin Sears is a principal of the Earnscliffe Strategy Group, and was National Director and National Campaign Manager for the NDP between 1974 and 1988.

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