Britain’s economy is close to a turning point as the country prepares to formally leave the EU after almost half a century of membership, according to a Guardian analysis of economic news over the past month.

More than three and a half years after voting to leave, the UK will formally depart on Friday with the economy close to stalling point following repeated cliff-edge deadlines and intense political uncertainty over the country’s future trading relationships with the EU and other countries.

In the Guardian’s final Brexit watch before the exit date, warning lights are flashing with zero growth forecast for the final three months of 2019 amid intense political uncertainty, rounding off the worst year for growth outside of a recession since the second world war. Speculation has been rising that the Bank of England will cut interest rates on Thursday to reboot growth on the eve of leaving the EU.

However, there are also early shoots of recovery from a surge in business confidence since Boris Johnson’s unexpected decisive election victory, which could tempt the Bank to leave borrowing costs on hold at Mark Carney’s final rate-setting meeting in charge at Threadneedle Street. Carney will stand down in March to be replaced by Andrew Bailey.

To gauge the impact of Brexit on a monthly basis, the Guardian has been monitoring eight economic indicators over the past three years, along with the value of the pound and the performance of the FTSE 100.

City economists made forecasts for seven of those barometers before the data was released, and in six cases over the past month the outcome was better than expected, raising hopes that Britain can rebound from a period of lacklustre growth.

As the country prepares to embark on a period of intense trade negotiations with Brussels that will define the economic landscape for years to come, the gloomiest of forecasts made ahead of the Brexit vote have not come to pass. Joblessness is at the lowest level since the mid 1970s, while wage growth has accelerated to the highest levels in a decade.

However, it comes after an initial shock to the economy caused by the pound falling to the lowest point in 31 years straight after the June 2016 Brexit vote, which drove up the cost of importing goods to Britain. Inflation surged, squeezing living standards to leave the average family at least £1,500 worseoff than under a remain outcome, according to the Resolution Foundation.

Growth in the UK economy has gone from the fastest in the G7 to among the weakest, with business investment flatlining as companies put their investment plans on hold to await greater clarity over Brexit. Repeated cliff-edge Brexit deadlines triggered booms in stockpiling as firms feared disruption at the borders and higher costs of trade with the EU, distorting quarterly growth and leading to boom and bust in the economy.

In the past month, figures show consumers reined in their spending over the key Christmas shopping period, in a blow for struggling retailers, while the world economy faces fresh risks from the Chinese coronavirus outbreak. Financial markets have been rocked in the past week as fears spread over the impact on trade. Analysts fear there could be knock-on effects for UK firms, at a delicate moment after years of disruption to the UK and world economy from the US-China trade war.

However, the bright spots on the dashboard from a resilient jobs market and rising business confidence suggest Britain could be reaching a turning point. According to the consultancy Capital Economics, annual growth is set to accelerate from 1% this year to 1.8% in 2021 as the country turns a corner.

However, two former members of the Bank of England’s rate-setting monetary policy committee (MPC) warned that the tight timescale for reaching a deal with the EU that Boris Johnson has imposed could derail the recovery.

Writing in the Guardian, Andrew Sentance, who is now a senior adviser to the consultancy Cambridge Econometrics, said: “Even if economic growth does recover somewhat in the next couple of quarters, the progress of the UK economy is likely to remain sluggish in 2020.”

With inflation significantly below the Bank’s 2% target rate set by the government, David Blanchflower, another former member of the MPC, called on the Bank to cut rates to reboot the economy.

Writing in the Guardian, he said: “If CPI was above the target by a similar amount, at 2.7% the MPC would almost surely raise rates. But the target is meant to be symmetric. Doing nothing is worse than doing something and there may well be lots of bad data ahead. It is hard to see how a cut could possibly hurt. It is always best to get your retaliation in first.”