There is a lot of information to try to understand about the new coronavirus (COVID-19). From social media to news, it is hard for anyone to keep up with the constant flow of new and sometimes contradictory information.

The most important voices to listen to now are scientists–particularly epidemiologists, who devote their lives to studying the spread of disease. Many epidemiologists, along with microbiologists, virologists, statisticians, and medical doctors have been concerned about the COVID-19 virus since it first appeared China in late 2019.

This is a brief explanation of why scientists are concerned about COVID-19 and why we must listen. All information provided here is referenced directly from scientific researchers, no media sources were used.

Expect Uncertainty

In trusting scientists, we must understand there is a degree of uncertainty in the information they provide. We are uncharted water, and a good scientist accepts uncertainty. This is especially true when they are trying to understand a new disease, such as COVID-19. This is because many factors about the disease are unknown, such as how contagious or deadly a virus might be. Scientists are learning more about COVID-19 each day and are becoming more confident in the information they are providing.

Why Scientists are Concerned

Here is the information scientists currently have for COVID-19–please remember these numbers will likely change as we learn more. Two key numbers scientists use during an outbreak are the reproductive rate and case fatality rate:

Reproductive Rate is the number of people who get sick from one infected individual. For COVID-19,between 2 and 2.5 people are infected by every 1 sick person, as of March 6, 2020.

Mortality Rate (also called the Case Fatality Rate) is the number of deaths within all known cases. For COVID-19, it is currently between 2-4% as of March 6, 2020. It is crucial to know that the mortality rate increases for high risk groups.

Why these numbers concern scientists:

Because the reproductive rate and mortality rate are much higher than the flu, COVID-19 is deadlier and more contagious than the flu.

Nearly 80% of people infected have mild or no symptoms at all, but are still very contagious. This means many people may be unknowingly and silently spreading this virus to 2 or more other people. More spread will lead to more deaths.

More spread will lead to more deaths. Scientists estimate there currently is a large number of people in the U.S. who have mild or no symptoms who are spreading the virus.

We have over 50 million people in the U.S. in the high risk category–if a lot of these people get sick, they will require hospitalization and many will require ventilator support, which is limited. (Note: Everyone should read “What May Happen” on the CDC’s COVID-19 page)

Why the Numbers Change

The numbers change for these key reasons:

Uncertainty: Nothing is certain about a new disease–scientists are learning more about it as more cases occur and more information is gathered.

Nothing is certain about a new disease–scientists are learning more about it as more cases occur and more information is gathered. Prevention: If preventative measures, such as social distancing, are practiced, the number of people who have the virus will go down.

If preventative measures, such as social distancing, are practiced, the number of people who have the virus will go down. Testing: If more people are tested, the more information scientists have about who has the virus. More testing is good. Identifying how many sick people there are helps scientists to understand how the disease is spread andwhich communities are most at risk.

Scientists We Must Listen To

This list is clearly not a comprehensive list. There are many scientists working overtime right now and providing very important guidance to the public.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease

Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (Director-General World Health Organization)

Further reading

What May Happen: CDC’s COVID-19

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention