Have we seen this all before? The Trump-Kim summit statement, annotated

Updated

After months of anticipation and false starts, US President Donald Trump's meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore culminated in the signing of a joint statement.

Mr Trump said the summit went "better than anybody could have expected" and when asked what made this time different, Mr Trump said America had a different administration and a different president.

But there was nonetheless a sense of deja vu in the air — North Korea has agreed to concessions in the past, before abruptly reneging on its commitments and continuing its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Previous agreements include the Agreed Framework in 1994, negotiated under then president Bill Clinton, and the six-party joint statement in 2005, negotiated under then president George W Bush.

So what exactly is new? And what have we seen before?

We enlisted the help of North Korea experts Justin Hastings, an associate professor in the Department of Government and International Relations at Sydney University, and Leonid Petrov, a Korean studies expert at the Australian National University, to help us answer those questions in the highlighted sections below.

The full statement, annotated

President Donald J Trump of the United States of America and Chairman Kim Jong-un of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) held a first, historic summit in Singapore on June 12, 2018.

"A first historic summit…" North Korea has long desired a meeting between its leader and a sitting US president. Mr Trump is the first to accept and follow through. President Bill Clinton came closest before that, towards the end of his tenure. He first sent his secretary of state, Madeleine Albright. Dr Petrov says: "Clinton was prepared to do the same thing Trump did … he sent Madeleine Albright back in 2008 to Pyonyang like Trump did with [current US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who was director of the CIA at the time of his visit]. She met with Kim Jong Il and everything was prepared for this grand bargain. "But Al Gore was supposed to win the [coming US] election, and then there was a constitutional crisis. "Clinton wanted to go to Pyongyang himself but it was cancelled last moment because of the constitutional crisis. "Trump was more successful than Clinton in that way because he could do it at the beginning of his tenure, and not the end." For his part, Mr Clinton claims that the former president of the Palestinian authority, Yasser Arafat, had a hand in him not going to Pyongyang: "I had a chance at the end of my presidency … to end their missile program but I would have had to go to North Korea…," he has said. "But I couldn't do that and finish the Middle-East peace. And Arafat begged me not to go and then backed out on his promise."

President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un conducted a comprehensive, in-depth, and sincere exchange of opinions on the issues related to the establishment of new US-DPRK relations and the building of a lasting and robust peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

President Trump committed to provide security guarantees to the DPRK, and Chairman Kim Jong-un reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.

"Security guarantees to the DPRK…" After the summit, Mr Trump promised to end the US's joint military exercises with South Korea — a major concession and long-held demand from North Korea. The United States has offered security guarantees to North Korea before, even going so far as to halt its joint military exercises with South Korea in the early 1990s. The 1994 agreed framework said: "The US will provide formal assurances to the DPRK against the threat or use of nuclear weapons by the US." And the 2005 six-party joint statement said: "The United States affirmed that it has no nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula and has no intention to attack or invade the DPRK with nuclear or conventional weapons." Associate Professor Hastings said: "Security guarantees are left unclear here. But it is a formal recognition by the US that North Korea is unlikely to make any moves toward denuclearisation without some addressing of North Korea’s security concerns — which is why it has nuclear weapons in the first place."

Convinced that the establishment of new US-DPRK relations will contribute to the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula and of the world, and recognising that mutual confidence-building can promote the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un state the following:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new US-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

"New US-DPRK relations … for peace and prosperity …" The two countries have committed to closer relations in the past. In the 1994 agreed framework, both nations agreed to move towards bilateral relations at the ambassadorial level — something that has not been achieved since the 1953 armistice. Here's what the 1994 agreed framework says: "The two sides will move toward full normalisation of political and economic relations. "1. Within three months of the date of this Document, both sides will reduce barriers to trade and investment, including restrictions on telecommunications services and financial transactions. "2. Each side will open a liaison office in the other's capital following resolution of consular and other technical issues through expert level discussions. "3. As progress is made on issues of concern to each side, the US and the DPRK will upgrade bilateral relations to the Ambassadorial level." The 2005 six-party joint statement contained some similar sentiments: "The DPRK and the United States undertook to respect each other's sovereignty, exist peacefully together, and take steps to normalise their relations subject to their respective bilateral policies." Associate Professor Hastings says: "'New relations' are not normalised relations. The US and DPRK can improve relations considerably without formalising their relationship. [Former US president Richard] Nixon went to China years before the US established formal relations with the PRC, for instance. I would imagine that a formal relationship — with embassies and trade agreements and the like — would come as a result of new relations resulting in less hostile relations." Dr Petrov says: "Australia established diplomatic relations in the year 2000 (as well as) Canada and New Zealand. They did it simultaneously because the Clinton administration was prepared to recognise North Korea diplomatically. It didn't happen only because the Democrats lost the elections, and the Bush administration employed the ABC — anything but Clinton — approach."

2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

"A lasting and stable peace…" The 2005 six-party joint statement included similar language: "The Six Parties committed to joint efforts for lasting peace and stability in Northeast Asia. "The directly related parties will negotiate a permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula at an appropriate separate forum. "The Six Parties agreed to explore ways and means for promoting security cooperation in Northeast Asia." The Korean War ended in 1953 with an armistice, rather than a treaty, which means that technically the war never ended. Dr Petrov says the most important part in establishing peace is that the war is officially finished: "There should be a formal ending to the Korean War. North and South Korea right now are already negotiating the proclamation of the end of the war … which is important … but to formally finish the war, I think those parties who signed the armistice agreement must convene again and sign the final peace treaty. In 1953 it was North Korea, China and the United Nations command, represented by the US. "South Korea wasn't there but it was represented by the United Nations command."

3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work towards complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.

"Complete denuclearisation..." North Korea has committed before to not pursue and to dismantle its nuclear program. It promised to do so in 2005, and then conducted its first nuclear test in 2006. From the 1994 agreed framework: "The DPRK will consistently take steps to implement the North-South Joint Declaration on the Denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula." From the 2005 six-party joint statement: "The DPRK committed to abandoning all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs and returning, at an early date, to the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons and to IAEA safeguards." "The 1992 Joint Declaration of the Denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula should be observed and implemented." Associate Professor Hastings says: "North Korea hasn't formally agreed to denuclearise unilaterally — at least in the sense that the the US wants. It's only agreed that it seeks denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula, which the DPRK understands to be a situation where peace and security on the Korean Peninsula are such that no-one [the DPRK, the ROK, and the US] needs nuclear weapons or the threat of nuclear weapons. "Such a security situation would theoretically allow the DPRK to give up nuclear weapons on its own. The DPRK has made this statement a number of times before, and the reference to the 27 April declaration is telling since it means that North Korea has not changed its understanding of denuclearisation since its meeting with Moon Jae-in."

4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

"Immediate repatriation..." Between 1990 and 2005, 229 sets of American war remains were repatriated from North Korea to the United States, during a thaw in relations. But this ceased after 2005, when the six-party talks broke down. The Veterans of Foreign Wars of the US organisation, which advocates for veterans who have served overseas for the United States, lobbied Mr Trump to include further repatriations in negotiations. The VFW says there are 7,700 Americans who continue to be listed as missing in action in the Korean conflict to this day.

Having acknowledged that the US-DPRK summit — the first in history — was an epochal event of great significance and overcoming decades of tensions and hostilities between the two countries and for the opening of a new future, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un commit to implement the stipulations in this joint statement fully and expeditiously.

"Fully and expeditiously…" The practical steps to denuclearisation, including moving nuclear missiles out of North Korea and decommissioning its nuclear reactor, could be achieved in a matter of months, according to both experts. It's the political negotiations and verification that make the process more drawn out. Associate Professor Hastings says: "In blue-sky thinking, if North Korea were willing to disassemble its weapons and transfer all nuclear weapons pits (the uranium or plutonium cores of the bombs) outside the country, it could get rid of nuclear weapons pretty quickly (within months). Coming to a point where outside observers trust that it has actually gotten rid of all weapons is a longer time frame. "To show complete denuclearisation (of both weapons and facilities) could take a couple of years, depending on how much of its program it wants to/is allowed to keep 'for peaceful purposes' and how cooperative it is with inspectors to verify the dismantlement." Dr Petrov says: "How long does it take to identify 60 devices and either ship them out of the country or put them under a watchful eye? Maybe months? It depends on where the weapons are going to end up."

The United States and the DPRK commit to hold follow-on negotiations led by the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and a relevant high-level DPRK official, at the earliest possible date, to implement the outcomes of the US-DPRK summit.

"Commit to hold follow-on negotiations…" Summits involving North Korea and the US have often ended in an agreement to continue talks. The 1994 agreed framework says: "As soon as possible after the date of this document U.S. and DPRK experts will hold two sets of experts talks. "a. At one set of talks, experts will discuss issues related to alternative energy and the replacement of the graphite-moderated reactor program with the LWR project. "b. At the other set of talks, experts will discuss specific arrangements for spent fuel storage and ultimate disposition." And here's the 2005 six-party joint statement: "The Six Parties agreed to hold the Fifth Round of the Six-Party Talks in Beijing in early November 2005 at a date to be determined through consultations."

President Donald J Trump of the United States of America and Chairman Kim Jong-un of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea have committed to cooperate for the development of new US-DPRK relations and for the promotion of peace, prosperity, and security of the Korean Peninsula and of the world.

June 12, 2018

Sentosa Island

Topics: unrest-conflict-and-war, nuclear-accident, donald-trump, world-politics, singapore, korea-democratic-peoples-republic-of, united-states

First posted