Summarizing the 2016 Offseason:

First time doing this, so here we go!





Our Current Roster:





KANE - ROR - ENNIS

REINHART - EICHEL - GIRGENSONS

GIONTA - LARSSON - FOLIGNO

MOULSON - LEGWAND - DELO





RISTO - GEORGES

BOGO - MCCABE

PYSYK - FRANSON

COLIOVACO





LEHNER

JOHNSON





UFA: Legwand, Colaiacovo, Johnson

RFA: Foligno, Girgensons, Larsson, Deslauriers, Ristolainen, McCabe





Current FAs:

So Carlo is gone at the end of the season. Legwand is a UFA who I wouldn't mind bring back for another year, however is replaceable. Johnson showed he can be a quality backup for 20-30 games a year. He will try to turn his 20 win season into some more money and possibly a chance to start. I feel at best he's a 1B type goalie but will never be a quality starter. If one team gives him the money and playing time or a chance to be a starter, he will go there, otherwise GMTM gives him a 1 year 2.5M deal.

As for RFAs. 2 of Foligno, Girgensons and Larsson will be resigned, the other will be traded. Deslauriers will sign a 2-3 year 1.25/yr contract to be a 4th liner. McCabe made great strides this season and can be a reliable 4th-5th Dman(right now). I think 1.5-2m for 2 years, 3 if we’re lucky. Risto is where it gets tricky. He is our top defenseman. He will want 6m x 6 years to take him to UFA status where he can try to bank a 8 year deal for more money. Murray may want a bridge contract of 4m x 4 to take him to 25 then deal with an 8 year contract then. I think they settle at 5m x 5 years.





Our needs:

Top-6 winger, top 3 offensive LHD, backup goalie.





Draft:

We have 12 picks in this draft. 12! Murray is not picking 12 prospects. He will be bundling picks to move up or to package in deals. My top trade targets would be LA, MIN or NYI, maybe ANA and COL. Most of these teams are lacking in picks, and LA, MIN and COL don’t have too many promising prospects in my opinion. Murray may use some of his trade bait players and pick(s) to fill his top - 6 winger/ LHD role. Tanner Pearson or Jake Muzzin from LA, Jonas Brodin or Nino Niederreiter from MIN. COL may be looking to move back to pick up more picks because their prospect pool is bare. In the draft, we are taking the best player available. We could use a high-end D prospect, but we are still looking for a running mate for Eichel and Reino.





Free Agency.

Realistically, we’re not signing Stamkos and we don’t want Staal. To fill out our top 6 role, we will try to sign Andrew Ladd, Kyle Okposo or Loui Eriksson. Ladd is my top guy of the 3 wingers, I feel he is the best goal scorer of the bunch. Eriksson and Okposo are both quality alternatives. Backup goalies are easy to find, I assume Johnson finds a team who will split starts for him and we go and sign Alex Stalock or Carter Hutton to a 1 year deal, my assumption being that Linus Ullmark is the backup in 17-18. Depending on how he feels he is in his career, I’d love to bring back Brian Campbell, he’s made his money and if he thinks he can play another 3 years, he may have a shot at another cup, otherwise he will take a pay cut to go to a contender. Look for murray to make a play for Keith Yandle or Alex Goligoski. I would also like to see us get Michael Grabner for cheap if we miss out all of the top 6 wingers. Depending on ANA, we may be able to get Jamie McGinn back, but not if we get one of the big 3 wingers. Also, Raffi Torres is available, I think any price for him is a steal…just saying.





Who won’t be traded: Eichel, ROR, Kane, Risto, Lehner, Gionta.

It’s obvious why they aren’t going anywhere, Murray built these guys as his core. Gionta is the only outlier, but that is because he will retire at the end of the season and hand his captaincy to ROR. Plus his trade value blows.





Who is unlikely to be traded: Reinhart, McCabe, Moulson, Deslauriers.

Reinhart isn’t going anywhere unless it’s a blockbuster. McCabe is proving to be a solid top 4 guy who can QB PP2 and play PK. Moulson isn’t being bought out, and Murray is giving him a season to redeem himself, plus he’s got a second career as Jack’s landlord mixed with his atrocious contract, he had no need to play in 15-16, he’s set. Plus he will rebound next year. Deslauriers is a cheap 4th line tough-guy with some offensive upside and decent PK skills, he’ll spend years on our team barring injuries.





Who may be traded: Franson, Georges, Bogosian, Foligno

Franson is like a broke man’s Erik Karlsson. He’s very good on the PP, and decent in the offensive zone(up until 15-16), otherwise he’s a liability in the D-zone. He was cheap last year and will be shipped out at the deadline for a 3rd-4th round pick barring some defensive miracle juice he starts drinking. Georges, same idea. He’s a 4th-5th defenseman who is lucky enough to play alongside Risto. He’s replaceable, but I don’t see him going until the deadline depending on our position in the standings. If Bogosian can play all year like he did the last 2 months, he’d be an excellent 2nd pairing defenseman (you know, like he was predicted to be when he was drafted 4th overall). Due to injury concerns, I don’t think he hits that stride for a full season, which sucks, because I like him. I think his contract keeps him from moving in the offseason, but I’m not sure. I added Foligno from the more likely to be traded list due to the fact he plays wing as a 3rd line checker and that he had a offensive resurgence the second half of the season. I feel he was probably our most consistent performer for the second half of the season and Murray will want to see what he can do next year. However Murray may try to capitalize on that and get max trade value.





Who is more likely to be traded: 1 of Girgensons or Larsson. Ennis, Pysyk.

While I would like Larsson to be the one to go, I feel it will be Girgensons. He’s offensive upside is higher and will have more trade value. Personally I think the way Bylsma deployed Girgs is why Larsson wins out here. I feel that Girgs could anchor the 3rd line better than Larsson, but the film shows otherwise. Ennis, because of the year he had (or lack thereof) he is the one that most people predict will be traded. I agree with that, but Murray will not let him go unless he gets fair trade value, otherwise, Ennis will be in the lineup next year. What the hell happened to the Pysyk that we were too afraid to call up because he was too good? The first half of the season, he was doing exactly what he should. When you don’t hear a defensman’s name it means he’s not making mistakes. When he went out early in the season our possession number really dipped, showing that while he doesn’t put up a lot of points, he drives possession. However the second half of the season you didn’t hear his name because he just disappeared. His play dropped off significantly and he was not a reliable defenseman at all, hell, I’d almost rather put Franson in. He could be on his way out in a package to bring a top-6 winger while he still has trade value.







The Next Chapter:

This is who I believe could make the team next year that is not a full-fledged player this year. If we draft Matthews, Laine or Puljujarvi, or Chychrun, maybe Olli Juolevi there is a chance for them. I could see Julien Gauthier making the leap next year but it would be a reach at our pick, we would need to trade back from our spot or get another mid-round 1st rounder. Justin Bailey as a 3rd-4th line winger. Cal O’Reilly as a 4th center. There is talk that Guhle could push for a spot but it’s dependent on what he brings next fall and who Murray brings in. I feel Fasching and Nelson need more seasoning before baking in the NHL.





Next Fall’s Likely Roster in my opinion:





Kane - ROR - (Player acquired in trade for 2 of Pysyk, Ennis, Girgensons)

Rheino - Eichel - Ladd

Foligno - Larsson - Gionta

Moulson - COR - Bailey

Deslauriers





Risto - Yandle(FA) or Trade including Pysyk, Ennis, or Girgensons

Bogo - McCabe

Gorges - FA defenseman(better not be Weber)

Franson





Lehner

Stalock or Hutton

I wrote this because my buddy asked me to give him the deets on the Sabres and what I believe will happen this offseason. Since it was such a long write-up I figured I’d post it here on DBTB. Unfortunately since it is my first writeup, I did have some trouble with roster building at the end. I put some of my opinions in here, but I should state that this is not completely my opinion. I’d like to keep Pysyk, but I feel he is one of the guys we use as trade bait for example.

Brian, Larsson is dead to me. There you go.