Draft GOP redistricting map in Wisconsin

Wisconsin Republicans have produced a new redistricting map, although they still are not saying if they will break with normal order and attempt to pass it before the August recall elections. On the congressional level, the map apparently works to protect Republicans Paul Ryan and Sean Duffy, as well as Democrat Ron Kind. From JS Online:

Republicans are taking aggressive steps to protect House freshman Sean Duffy under a draft redistricting plan that hasn’t been released to the public but is circulating among Wisconsin members of Congress. The plan goes to some lengths to make Duffy’s marginally Democratic seat more Republican, according to a map provided by a Democratic source and whose main features were confirmed by sources in both parties. (You can find the map here). Arguably his party’s most vulnerable House incumbent, Duffy represents the Seventh congressional district in northern Wisconsin, previously held by Democrat Dave Obey. The plan would carve out a Democratic chunk of central Wisconsin (including the cities of Stevens Point and Wisconsin Rapids) and shift it from Duffy’s seat to Democrat Ron Kind’s western Wisconsin district.

The map also appears to make Paul Ryan's WI-01 district a bit redder. According to one early analysis, the district may have moved from a Cook Partisan Voting Index of GOP +2 to GOP +4. That would make Ryan, who is arguably the ultimate 2012 target, a more difficult but still beatable opponent.

When will Republicans try to pass this new map? The Wisconsin state legislature's redistricting website says new maps for congressional and state legislative districts in Wisconsin are scheduled to passed in the autumn, after counties and municipalities redraw their local districts. This is done in order to avoid an administrative nightmare:

[T]he Legislature doesn’t customarily tackle redistricting until the fall, after municipalities and counties draw their wards, aldermanic districts and county supervisory districts, all of which is required by state statute to be done within 180 days of the release of census data by the federal government, which happened on March 21. Wards, the state’s smallest electoral units, are the basic building blocks that legislators typically use to draw state Senate and Assembly and U.S. congressional districts. Ken Mayer, a University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor and redistricting expert, says any attempt to map legislative districts before municipalities finish their work “would be an administrative nightmare.” That’s because the Republicans couldn’t start at the ward level but instead would use census data to overlay legislative districts on top of municipal electoral maps. “Think of what would happen if you draw a district line in a way that it splits a ward down the middle,” says Mayer, who served as an adviser for Senate Democrats during the redistricting battle 10 years ago. “You’d have to double the number of polling places. It would be a nightmare for the clerks."

Given this, perhaps the proposed map will have to be revised significantly in order to pass a Democratic-controlled state Senate in the fall.

However, the Wisconsin GOP's pattern of power grabs, combined with their long-standing refusal to rule out redistricting before the recall elections (as seen in both articles linked above, the latter from May 12 and the former from June 13), has a lot of Democrats in Wisconsin nervous. It doesn't seem far fetched that Republicans will just say "screw it all" and pass their new maps right away if they feel threatened enough by the upcoming recalls.

Update: In the comments, glame argues that Paul Ryan's district does not get any redder in this map:

The 6th becomes safer for Petri and becomes much easier for a Republican to succeed (likely State Senator Jeff Leibham), the 7th becomes safer for Duffy but he would still be vulnerable (even if Lassa and Kreitlow are drawn out, State Rep Nick Milroy of Superior would also be a fine challenger), the 8th firms up for Ribble but he would face a strong challenge to Outagamie Co Exec Tom Nelson, and the 1st remains largely the same so Zerban still has a chance.

Check out the comment for specific numbers on each district.