President Barack Obama has begun to barrage House Democrats with phone calls in hopes of explaining to members of his own party why they should break their near uniform opposition and support his trade agenda.

House Republicans, meanwhile, are feeling newfound optimism that at least 190 of their lawmakers will support so-called trade promotion authority giving the president power to fast-track free-trade agreements. That would mean roughly 27 Democrats would need to support the legislation in order to hand Obama his largest legislative victory in years. Eighteen Democrats are currently on record backing the bill.


It’s now up to Obama to flip the rest.

Speaker John Boehner, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Majority Whip Steve Scalise and Chief Deputy Whip Patrick McHenry will meet with undecided Republicans this week to press them to vote yes. A significant number of GOP lawmakers are holding out and will commit to no one other than Boehner and McCarthy. They want to convey to the top two leaders how tough of a vote this is.

Republican leaders are sparing no effort in the whip effort and believe they’re on track to notch a historically high vote total for a trade bill. Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) also has several meetings with lawmakers who are undecided or currently opposed to the package. He will also join GOP leadership in a meeting Wednesday with trade associations, agriculture groups and manufacturers that’s expected to draw 150 attendees.

In a sign of the GOP’s confidence, House Republican leadership sources say they could bring the package of trade bills to the floor for a vote as soon as next week. Top aides and lawmakers say, however, that a vote could easily slip to the week of June 15. Republicans want to make sure they schedule a vote as soon as they have the support to pass the package. They are nervous about the White House’s ability to keep Democrats in line.

Getting the needed number of House Democrats on board is the biggest test of Obama’s legislative prowess in years. Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California and Minority Whip Steny Hoyer of Maryland are undecided. Hoyer’s noncommittal posture on the issue is a logistical challenge because the pro-fast-track Democrats will not have their whip on the House floor.

The stakes couldn’t be higher for the president. The Trans-Pacific Partnership is the top legislative priority for his final years in office and passage of the deal would mark the largest trade initiative in decades. Its defeat would be a major embarrassment for the United States on the world stage.

Should it pass the House, it would also be a major victory for Republican leaders who have worked for months to whittle down opposition and build support.

Obama is trying to assuage individual Democrats’ lingering concerns. He was successful in easing Colorado Rep. Ed Perlmutter’s resistance to TPA: The Denver-area Democrat once was a firm no but said he might support the bill after meeting with Obama and speaking with him on the phone. Obama agreed to work with Perlmutter on infrastructure projects, sources said.

Obama has also personally reached out to Democratic Reps. Jim Himes of Connecticut, Sam Farr of California, David Price of North Carolina, Kathleen Rice of New York, Cedric Richmond of Louisiana and Emanuel Cleaver of Missouri, among others, as part of his lobbying blitz.

The president is especially focused on turning votes in the Congressional Black Caucus, traditionally his most ardent supporters in the House. When Obama called Richmond, the president tried to make the point that the trade deal would benefit the lawmaker’s New Orleans-area district. Richmond is leaning toward opposing the package.

But Richmond said he’s also been turned off by what he called labor’s scorched-earth tactics against the package.

A caucus meeting Tuesday morning featured Connecticut Rep. Rosa DeLauro speaking out against the package. | AP Photo

“I was leaning no, but the more Trumka and others start to talk, the more I lean the other way,” Richmond said, referring to AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka. “So I am all conflicted.”

Obama tried to reach Cleaver, a former leader of the CBC, but the Missouri Democrat was “standing in front of a crowd speaking” so he couldn’t talk to the president.

“My chief of staff took the call and said, ‘Could you call back? Could the White House call back?’” Cleaver said. “I know [Obama] must have been making a number of calls that day.” Obama has been unsuccessful in getting Cleaver on the phone.

In addition to Obama’s phone calls, U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman and Labor Secretary Tom Perez will be on Capitol Hill on Wednesday for a classified briefing with Democrats on Mexico’s participation in the TPP.

There are some lingering procedural questions for Democrats and Republicans to work out. Pelosi doesn’t approve of the way Trade Adjustment Assistance — aid to help workers displaced or hurt by trade — would be paid for. She wants the financing proposal, currently part of a customs bill, to come to the floor before any other trade-related legislation. The aid will likely need Democratic support to pass, as it is coming to the floor as a standalone measure. But GOP leadership says flatly they will not pass the customs legislation first, and they will not change the proposal to pay for the assistance.

Crosscurrents within the Democratic Caucus are powerful. A caucus meeting Tuesday morning featured Reps. Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut and Sander Levin of Michigan speaking out against the package as supporters praised it. On Wednesday, pro-trade Democrats like Rep. Ron Kind of Wisconsin plan to meet with Pelosi to express frustration with the labor movement’s aggressive opposition to Obama’s trade agenda.

“Obviously it’s tough for Democrats to get to ‘yes.’ There’s not a lot of political upside for doing it,” Kind told POLITICO.

Noting the worries among Democrats that backing the legislation will trigger a backlash when they’re up for reelection next year, Kind added: “These are very valuable members. I want to make sure they’re supported, and they’ve got the type of campaigns that (are) gonna get them back here again next year. Leadership has a role in all that, absolutely.”

Rep. Xavier Becerra of California, a member of Democratic leadership who is opposed to TPA, said Obama is “very persuasive” and will be burning up phone lines until the vote.

“This is one of those votes that it will likely be very close,” he said, “and everyone will work until the final moments to see if they can get the votes to go their way.”

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