Hailed by Michael Salfino of the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” the Prospect Digest Handbook is a perennial favorite among baseball enthusiasts, minor league fans, and fantasy general managers. Now back for its fifth season, the Prospect Digest Handbook is the definitive guide to the minor leagues.

1. Willie Calhoun, LF

Background: With the team decidedly out of the playoffs and looking at a 19-game difference their 50-55 record and the Houston Astros, Rangers veteran GM Jon Daniels pulled the plug on the season and shipped out the club’s most attractive trade chip – and impending free agent – Yu Darvish to the Los Angeles Dodgers. In return for the Japanese-born right-hander, Texas received a three-player package highlighted by Calhoun, a fast-moving 2015 fourth round pick out of little Yavapai College. A power-packed, pint-sized second baseman/left fielder in the same mold as Boston’s Mookie Betts, Calhoun continues to offer up some of the best extra-base potential in the entire minor leagues – despite standing just 5-foot-8 and 187 pounds.

Calhoun ripped through three different levels during his debut onslaught, slugging an aggregate .316/.390/.519 with 23 doubles, one three-bagger, and 11 homeruns in 73 games between the Pioneer, Midwest, and California Leagues. He followed that up with another strong showing as he moved into Class AA, the minors’ toughest challenge, two years ago, hitting .254/.318/.469 with 25 doubles, a triple, and 27 dingers. Last season, between both organizations’ Class AAA affiliate, Calhoun slugged .300/.355/.572 with career highs in doubles (27), triples (6), homeruns (31), and stolen bases (4). Texas also called up their recently acquired baby-faced bopper for a 13-game cameo late in the season. For his minor league career, Calhoun’s sporting an impressive .286/.348/.520 triple-slash line in 333 games.

Projection: Here’s what I wrote about Calhoun in last year’s book when I ranked him as the fourth best prospect in a deep, dynamic Dodgers system:

“[There are] a few things we need to talk about:

The lefty-swinging Calhoun looked absolutely hapless, helpless, and hopeless against fellow southpaws last season, hitting a lowly .219/.299/.276 with just four extra-base hits in 118 plate appearances. Yes, it’s a small sample size. And, yes, he torched lefties during his debut. But it’s still something to watch in the future.

If we ignore his expect slow start to 2016 – and I say expected because, really, he barely had half of a season between entering Class AA and leaving college – Calhoun slugged .267/.334/.504 over his final 104 contests.

Among all MiLB second baseman Calhoun trailed only Atlanta’s Travis Demeritte in homeruns at the position (28 vs. 27). The significant difference: Calhoun spent the full year in Class AA and posted a 0.69 BB/9 ratio. Demeritte, on the other hand, spent the entire year in High Class A and finished with a dramatically worse 0.39 K/BB.

The easy comparison would be Chase Utley or even Mookie Betts. Either way, if he can stick at the keystone and hit lefties, Calhoun’s going to be an impact, middle-of-the-lineup thumper at a premium position.”

Well, his ability to roast lefties came storming back, in a big way, in 2017; he slugged .277/.314/.485 against them. With Rougned Odor locked in for the long term as the Rangers’ second baseman, expect Calhoun to continue to see action out in left field – a position that should hide his otherwise shortcomings on defense. He’s a true, legitimate middle-of-the-order bat, potentially on the same magnitude as Betts – if everything breaks the right way.

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017

2. Cole Ragans, LHP

Background: Fun Fact Part I: The Rangers/Senators have selected 11 left-handers in the first round of the draft. Fun Fact Part II: Of those 11, eight of them have been chosen from the high school ranks. Fun Fact Part III: Going back to those 11 first round lefties, eight of them eventually made it to the big leagues and the ninth, Ragans, is only one-plus season into his professional career. The 30th overall selection two years ago, Ragans would only dip his toe into the Arizona Summer League for a quick 7.2-inning debut. So last season’s work in the Northwest League was the first extended look at the prized lefty and he didn’t disappoint. In 13 starts for the Spokane Indians, Ragans threw 57.1 innings of work, fanning an impressive 87 but coughing up 35 free passes. The lanky left-hander would finish the year with 3.61 ERA, a 3.80 FIP, a 3.42 xFIP, and a 3.58 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

Projection: With respect to his work last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s a list of pitchers to average at least 13 punch outs per nine innings in the Northwest League (min. 50 IP): Cole Ragans

Expanding the criteria a bit, since 2006 here’s a list of pitchers to average at least 12 K/9 in the league (min. 50 IP): Ragans and Pedro Araujo. Araujo, 21, was two years older than Ragans when he accomplished the feat.

Taking another step back, here’s a list of 19-year-old arms that have averaged at least 10 K/9 in the Northwest League (min. 50 IP): Ragans, Cody Reed, Justin Nicolino, and Mat Latos.

Finally, since 2006, only six pitchers have fanned more than 30% of the Northwest League hitters they’ve faced (min. 50 IP): Ragans, Araujo, Latos, Nicolino, Jared Cranston, and Javier Avendano.

Obviously, Ragans’ ability to miss bats is a premium. But his control – or lack thereof – will be the only non-injury limiting factor. A silver lining: after walking 16 across his first 17.0 innings, Ragans coughed up just 19 base-on-balls over his final 40.1 IP. He’s a potential front-of-the-rotation caliber arm – albeit one that’s several years away.

Ceiling: 4.5- to 5.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2020

3. Leody Taveras, CF

Background: The Rangers’ MO, especially under the guidance of Jon Daniels, has been to aggressively push and challenge young, promising prospects through the low and middle levels of the minor leagues. And the teenage Taveras is just the last example. The club came to terms with the then-16-year-old outfielder three years ago on a deal that included a hefty $2.1 million signing bonus. Taveras, though, wouldn’t make his professional debut until the following season. Texas sent the 6-foot-1, 170-pound Dominican-born center fielder to their foreign rookie league affiliate, an assignment that lasted all of 11 games, before pushing him to the Arizona Summer League and then finally sending him up to Spokane at the end of the year. Overall, Taveras strung together an impressive .271/.324/.366 triple-slash line, belting out 14 doubles, six triples, and a long ball to go along with 18 stolen bases in just 73 games.

Of course, keeping with the aggressive scheme, Texas sent Taveras straight to the Sally last season where he was one of just three qualified 18-year-old prospects. And he didn’t miss a beat either. In 134 games with the Hickory Crawdads, Taveras batted a respectable .249/.312/.360 with 20 doubles, seven triples, eight homeruns, and 20 stolen bases. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, was just 4% below the league average mark.

Projection: One helluva stat-stuffing showing in 2017 for the young prospect. Let’s just dive right in. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2014, only 23 players have received at least 400 plate appearances in the South Atlantic League before the age of 19.

An impressive little statistic by itself, sure, but let’s keep going:

Of those 23 players, 19 of them made it to the big leagues by the end of 2017.

Of those 19, eight of them – Delino DeShields Jr., Domingo Santana, Elvis Andrus, Freddie Freeman, Giancarlo Stanton, Jason Heyward, and Wilmer Flores – have at least one big league season in which they produced above the league average rate (min. 350 PA).

Four of the members of that group – Santana, Freeman, Heyward, and Stanton – have at least one big league campaign with a 125 or better wRC+.

Just to recap: slightly more than one-third of the 18-year-old prospects to appear in the Sally between 2006 and 2014 have turned in at least one season of above-average big league production.

So how does Taveras’ 2017 season compare to the other 18-year-olds? He’s about smack dab in the middle. His 96 wRC+ is tied for the 11th best showing, though, it should – and needs – to be noted that of the group of eight to own a 100 wRC+ big league season, only two of them – DeShields and Flores – posted lower totals. There’s a lot to like about Taveras’ foundation: a surprisingly decent eye at the plate, success against significantly older competition, above-average speed, and developing power. And while the odds that he turns into a solid big leaguer are quite high given his age and lack of a track record, he may never reach true stardom.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

4. Chris Seise, SS

Background: The club’s second first round pick, Seise, who was taken three picks behind center fielder Bubba Thompson, turned in a far more impressive debut. The 29th overall player chosen last June, Seise, a 6-foot-2, 175-pound shortstop out of West Orange High School, made the transition into the Arizona Summer League look easy. In 27 games with the club’s rookie ball affiliate, the prep shortstop slugged .336/.395/.509 with five double, three triples, and three homeruns. The front office bumped him up to the Northwest League – keeping with the club’s mantra of aggressive promotions – and Seise’s production took a noticeable, and somewhat expected, dive: he batted just .222/.250/.273 with just four extra-base hits (three doubles and a triple) in 24 games with Spokane. Overall, he finished the year with an aggregate .284/.330/.400 triple-slash line.

Projection: One helluva way to start a professional career. Seise looked unstoppable during his foray into the Arizona Summer League. In fact, consider the following:

Since 2006, there have been just 32 instances in which an 18-year-old posted a 140 or better wRC+ mark in the Arizona Summer League (min. 125 PA).

Shrinking that data range down a bit to give players enough time to make it to the big leagues, between 2006 and 2013 there were just 18 players to accomplish the aforementioned feat. Of those 18, eight of those players – Cedric Hunter, Christian Arroyo, Daniel Roberts, Franchy Cordero, Jaff Decker, Joey Gallo, Renato Nunez, and Rymer Liriano – made it to the big leagues by the end of 2017.

Per the usual, it’ll be a wait-and-see approach for the youngster.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

Background: Even Tejeda’s track record of success wasn’t enough to stave off a prolonged slump as he continued to be aggressively pushed through the minor leagues. Last season, his first in full season ball, Tejeda looked overmatched during the first two-plus months as he batted a paltry .196/.275/.339 with 10 doubles, one triple, and four homeruns across his first 49 games. Something seemed to click in the 5-foot-11, 185-pound middle infielder and he righted the ship in early June. Over his remaining 66 contests, Tejeda slugged a robust .283/.335/.464 with 14 doubles, eight triples, and four homeruns. His production during that second half surge, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 27% – numbers more or less in line with his career norms.

Projection: Here’s what I wrote about Tejada in last year’s book when I ranked him as the club’s fourth best prospect:

“One of the defining points of early statistical analysis has to do with sample size – or more specifically, beware of small sample sizes. Anything can happen in a small data sample: utility players can look like Babe Ruth and The Sultan of Swat can look like a Punch-and-Judy hitter. But what happens if a litany of small samples sizes all add up to the same thing – impressive production? That’s what we’re dealing with here.

Over the past two seasons Tejeda’s slugged a combined .295/.356/.521 with 33 doubles, 16 triples, 14 homeruns, and 16 stolen bases (in 23 attempts) in 121 total games. Granted half of that has come in the hitter-friendly DSL, but his production stateside has been solid. He’s showing some very, very intriguing power potential. He’s going to be THE Breakout Prospect for 2017.”

First off, he wasn’t THE Breakout Prospect for 2017 – clearly. But after his two-month adjustment period, his numbers were pretty impressive – especially for a 19-year-old middle infielder in the South Atlantic League. Knowing the Rangers’ M.O., Tejeda is likely headed to High Class A for the start of 2018. There’s some intriguing power potential, but watch his K-rates as he progresses. Finally, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2014, there were 19 instances in which a 19-year-old posted a 102-112 wRC+ mark in the South Atlantic League (min. 350 PA). Of those 19, 12 of them would eventually make to the big leagues.

Continuing: of those 12 that accrued big league service time, five of them – Jefry Marte, Jose Peraza, Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera, and Tim Beckham – own at least one big league season in which they topped the 95 wRC+ mark (min. 250 PA).

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

6. Bubba Thompson, CF

Background: Death, taxes, and the Rangers grabbing high risk, high reward prep players early in the draft. Texas snagged Thompson, a toolsy 6-foot-2, 180-pound center fielder out of McGill-Toolen Catholic High School, with the 26th overall selection last June. Thompson spent the entirety of his debut in the Arizona Summer League, batting a respectable – though, far from standout – .257/.317/.434 with seven doubles, a pair of triples, and three homeruns. Thompson also swiped five bags in 10 tries. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average by just 4%.

Projection: It’s a solid start, but far from spectacular. Thompson showed an impressive toolkit: above-average power, solid hit tool, decent contact rates, and a slightly below-average walk rate. But here’s the problem:

Between 2006 and 2012, just 16 players have met the following criteria in the Arizona Summer League: 18-years-old, 120 or more plate appearances, and a wRC+ total between 100 and 110.

Of those 16 players, just two – Jose Ramirez and Junior Lake – made it to the big leagues by the end of 2017.

Per the usual, it’ll be a wait-and-see approach on the first year player. But he has his work cut out for him.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

7. Hans Crouse, RHP

Background: Fun Fact: Dana Hills High School, Crouse’s alma mater, is home to two big league arms – former Rangers reliever, and top prospect, Tanner Scheppers and Seth Etherton. Texas grabbed the 6-foot-4, 180-pound right-hander in the second round last June, 66th overall, and signed him to a deal worth about $1.5 million, roughly $600,000 above the slot value. And let’s just say Crouse lived up to every expectation during his brief debut. In 10 games with the club’s rookie affiliate, Crouse tossed 20 innings, fanned 30, and walked just seven. He finished his brief – albeit highly successful – debut with a 0.45 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 2.86 xFIP, and a 1.20 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

Projection: Unsurprisingly, the Rangers grabbed another highly touted prep player early in the draft. Anyway, Crouse looked nearly unhittable during his brief debut. But just how good was he, historically speaking? Consider the following:

Since 2006, only seven pitchers teenage pitchers have posted a strikeout percentage of at least 40% in the Arizona Summer League (min. 20 IP): Crouse, Danny Duffy, Alejandro Chacin, MacKenzie Gore, Seth Nordlin, Jacob Dunning, and Alfredo Tavarez.

Obviously, it’s an incredibly small sample size. But Crouse is off to one helluva start to his professional career.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

Background: Part of the package the club received from the Dodgers in exchange for free-agent-to-be Yu Darvish. Alexy, who was acquired along with Willie Calhoun and Brendon Davis, was an over-slot signing as an 11th rounder two years ago, agreeing to a deal worth roughly $600,000. The lanky right-hander made a few brief appearances in the Dodgers’ rookie league affiliate, but really opened some eyes as he moved into Low Class A last season. In 24 starts between both organizations’ Low Class A affiliates, the 6-foot-4, 195-pound Alexy posted a dominant 113-to-52 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 94.1 innings of work. He finished the year with an aggregate 3.53 ERA.

Projection: Typically in big trades like the Darvish deal, the club receiving the prospect package gets a top notch, near big league-ready minor leaguer (a la Willie Calhoun), a lower level prospect with an intriguing ceiling but comes with some risk (Alexy), and a third lesser known guy. Well, Alexy certainly fits the bill as an intriguing, potentially high ceiling prospect.

Instead of looking at Alexy’s entire season, let’s take a look at his production before the deal and see if he was a smart inclusion. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2013, there were just eight pitchers that posted a strikeout percentage of at least 27.5% as 19-year-olds in the Midwest League. Of those aforementioned eight arms, six of them made it to the big leagues by the end of 2017.

Fine. Great. Hell, that’s amazing odds. But let’s take a look at those individual pitchers.

Of those six pitchers, four of them went on to become above-average or better big league starting pitchers: Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard, Danny Duffy, and Shelby Miller. The fifth pitcher, Jake McGee, blossomed into a dominant reliever. Finally, Johnny Barbato, the sixth pitcher in the group, has had two cups of big league coffee – one with the Yankees two years ago and a bigger cup with the Pirates last season.

That deal looks a lot better from the Rangers’ perspective now, doesn’t it? OK. So now let’s look at his control – or lack thereof.

Of those aforementioned eight pitchers, four of them posted a walk percentage in double digits: Kershaw, McGee, Barbato, and Kasey Kiker.

Let’s not kid ourselves. Alexy isn’t going to be the next Kershaw. No one will. So let’s focus on the remaining three: McGee, Barbato, and Kiker. Two big league relievers and Kiker, a first round bust. That seems more up to speed and the most likely scenario for Alexy. But that strikeout percentage is oh-so-tantalizing. For now, I’m going to slap a mid-rotation ceiling on him, but it comes with a lot of risk, knowing that he’s a strong candidate to end up in the pen – historically speaking. But I love his inclusion in the deal from the Rangers’ perspective. Very, very savvy addition for the front office.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2020

9. Alex Speas, RHP

Background: The club’s second round pick out of McEachern High School two years ago. Speas, a 6-foot-4, 180-pound right-hander, made just four brief appearances in the Arizona Summer League during his debut, throwing just 8.1 innings with 11 strikeouts and seven walks. And that trend continued into 2017. The front office aggressively pushed the teenage hurler up to the Northwest League, where he was equals parts tantalizing and frustrating. In 16 games with the Spokane Indians, Speas threw 33.2 innings with an impressive 45 punch outs but he walked a whopping 25.

Projection: Similar production as 2016 first round selection – as well as Spokane rotation-mate Cole Ragans – Speas missed a ton of bats, but was way too generous when it came to handing out free passes. So what does recent history say? Consider the following:

Since 2006, only ten 19-year-old pitchers – including Speas – have posted a strikeout percentage of at least 27% in the Northwest League (min. 30 IP). Of those ten arms, three of them have posted a walk percentage north of 14%: Speas, teammate Cole Ragans, and, coincidentally, former Rangers 2007 first round selection Neil Ramirez.

Plenty of upside. But, damn, it’s risky. He’s now just 42.0 innings into his professional career, but he’s already walked 32 hitters. He’s plenty young enough to figure it out, but he could get pushed into a relief role soon rather than later.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

10. Ronald Guzman, 1B

Background: Part of the organization’s wildly successful international free agency class in 2011. Guzman, who signed along with Nomar Mazara and Yohander Mendez, is the last of the vaunted trio to make it to the big leagues. But he’s knocking on the parent club’s door, though. The 6-foot-5, 205-pound hulking first baseman spent the entirety of 2017 squaring off against the Pacific Coast League pitching, slugging .298/.372/.434 with 22 doubles, three triples, and 12 homeruns. He also swiped four bags in five attempts as well. Guzman’s overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 12% – numbers more or less with his career norms.

Projection: There are a few things I want to discuss. Firstly, here’s what I wrote in last year’s book when I ranked him as the club’s sixth best prospect:

“I’m always curious as putting a player’s production into historical context. First, here’s the list of criteria: between 2006-2016, 21-years-old, Texas League, a walk rate between 7.0% and 9.0%, an ISO between .180 and .200, and a strikeout rate between 15% and 20%. Now here’s the list of prospects that meets the aforementioned criteria:

Blanks, by the way, is the only one that isn’t currently a prospect.

Anyway, despite possessing tremendous size, Guzman’s never hit for a whole lot of power. He offers a toolkit mostly consisting of average offerings – though he is sneaky quick for his size. And because he’s limited to just first base – a position that doesn’t provide a whole lot of defensive value – don’t expect him to generate a lot of wins above replacement. For his big league ceiling, think .240/.310/.410.”

A year later the analysis and projected ceiling still stands. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, there were just four 22-year-old hitters to post a Weighted Runs Created Plus total between 105 and 115: Brett Wallace, Brandon Wood, Matt Tuiasosopo, and Greg Halman.

It’s not an inspiring group, is it? The Brett Wallace comparison seems like a really reasonable comparison. Last year I hypothesized that Guzman had a ceiling of .240/.310/.410. Wallace, by the way, is a career .238/.316/.389 big league hitter. Secondly, and this is more of a reflection on the Rangers’ organization. But how otherworldly was that 2011 international free agent class? Serious. Nomar Mazara made it to the big leagues as a 21-year-old, as did Yohander Mendez. And Guzman should see some time as a 23-year-old in 2018.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

Author’s Note: All statistics mentioned were gathered from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, ClayDavenport.com, or Baseball Prospectus.