NEW DELHI: Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s likely return as chief minister of Madhya Pradesh for a fourth time comes as a major boost for BJP , recovering a major state after Jharkhand and Maharashtra slipped out of its grasp after the Lok Sabha elections.

The likely return of "mama", as he is popularly referred to in MP, is also expected to bring a greater degree of cohesion to the state BJP where the satrap has held sway and which was looking a little at odds with itself since the party lost office in December 2018 in the face of incumbency and an upper caste revolt.

Along with Vasundhara Raje and Raman Singh, Chouhan has been a long-standing regional chieftain, winning repeat victories and establishing MP as a state that made notable progress in agriculture and roadways. Though affable and largely low key, Chouhan is seen as a determined leader and a key mover in the events that led to Congress’s Jyotiraditya Scindia’s revolt that brought down the Kamal Nath government.

Though the party brass has not said anything specific about who will be CM, Chouhan is seen as the frontrunner for the coveted chair. His elevation will also be seen as bridging of a trust deficit with the BJP leadership, which has been grist for political speculation for long.

Agriculture minister Narendra Singh Tomar and Narottam Mishra , a former minister in the state, have also been mentioned but Chouhan remains the favourite, given his equations with MLAs and his image across MP. The 61-year-old OBC leader was CM for 13 years and lost the assembly polls by a slender margin with results in the Gwalior-Chambal region, a Scindia bastion, tipping the balance. Though the party fell short of the majority mark, it polled more votes than Congress in the 2018 assembly polls.

Chouhan is seen by many in BJP as the best choice to lead the party with bypolls imminent on 22 seats vacated by Congress rebels. Winning these seats will be a test of nerves and political skill and the experienced campaigner is seen to be the man for the job. Following his government's ouster, the central leadership had made him party vice-president and given organisational tasks in the state to a new team of leaders.

It is interesting that Chouhan’s re-installation may happen at a time when the recent reverse in Delhi has revived discussion on the need for state leaders who can be seen as viable CMs. There is a view that popular state leaders seen as depending on PM Narendra Modi in local elections will not always do the trick.

The major coup in Congress was engineered by Scindia who hails from the same region as Tomar. MLAs from the Chambal region openly rebelled and resigned from the Congress camp. The region of Gwalior , Guna, Bhind and Morena had enabled Congress to reach one short of the magic figure in the 2018 elections.

