Almost everyone this season has at least one knock against them, either a track record of target-inspiring gameplay, or a complete lack thereof. This tier and the Likely set are far less distinct than they have been in recent seasons. (Although in most recent seasons, the variance is mostly due to lack of adequate information about the new players.)

1. J.T. Thomas

Positives: Of the three former winners appearing this season, JT is probably in the best spot. Everybody should be absolutely terrified of Tony, and similarly wary of Sandra. But will they be as worked up about JT? He wrote a love letter to Russell Hantz! And gave him his idol! Ha ha ha, what a rube! (Conveniently forgetting that he also unanimously won his previous season.) A lot depends on whether JT plays as Tocantins JT (the amiable, charming rancher) or Heroes vs. Villains JT (the cutthroat, wannabe villain). Given that one was significantly more successful than the other, his choice should be obvious. With his strength and speed and work ethic, he'll be a useful guy to have around in the early going. JT's danger zone is the merge, but if the post-merge devolves into a cascade of blindsides, with strong players taking each other out, JT is just non-threatening enough that he might be able to duck out of the way and be the nice guy everyone likes in the finals, guaranteeing himself a spot there with a string of crucial immunities as he did the first time. Unless he rushes in to embrace his inner villain too soon, in which case he won't be around to do that.

Negatives: Despite not being the biggest, most obvious threat, JT is still a prior winner, and at least some people are aware of that. Furthermore, he's the only winner on his initial tribe. All it takes is one Jenna Lewis clone (Ciera?) to bang that drum, and JT could be toast, early. He's also on the more physical of the two initial tribes, so his challenge abilities are significantly more dispensable than a Malcolm or a Michaela. If JT can make it through to the first swap, and swap favorably, he has a decent shot to go far.

2. Aubry Bracco

Positives: Aubry is socially skilled, strategically sound, and a solid performer in both tribal and individual challenges. An all-around threat. While it's not ideal that Kaoh Rong was the most recent season the rest of the cast saw before playing, her visibility may actually help her a bit. Her Kaoh Rong growth narrative, going from overwhelmed almost-medevac to surprising jury vote shortfall-er, may help lower her perceived threat level a bit. Because she didn't win, some may see her as an acceptable endgame risk. Similarly, she was shown as a capable competitor in challenges, so her name shouldn't be one of the first mentioned early on, when tribes are focused on challenge strength.



Negatives: Two words: Too soon. While Aubry has had the benefit of watching her first season play back, it's unlikely she's had enough time to fully evaluate what went wrong in the context of what other castmates were thinking during the game (which she could only get from the TV version). Furthermore, being on a recent season means it's well-represented here. Sandra is openly targeting the "Kaoh Rong Four" in her pre-game interviews (and likely will continue to do so as soon as she hits the beach) and Aubry is clearly the most dangerous of those four. And she's on Sandra's tribe. Even if it's just a Sandra seed, that threat label will be hard to shake. Aubry's authenticity should work in her favor in winning new tribemates over, though, so she still has a solid shot. Unless Tai or Debbie or Caleb (or all three) actively sabotage her.

3. Michaela Bradshaw

Positives: She should be a challenge asset to her initial, visibly underphysical tribe, and being a complete unknown to the rest of the contestants not named Zeke (since this season filmed in the summer of 2016, before Millennials vs. Gen X aired) may work to her benefit. Why on earth would you boot Michaela, when you could be taking out Sandra or Tony? Similarly, of the two MvGXers, Michaela should seem much less Hantz-like to her new tribemates than Zeke probably does. That should help her. We haven't seen Michaela in a post-merge situation before, but she should be capable there, we'd imagine. After the merge, she's not the most subtle player, but she does have a compelling life story that will be fresh news to the her current castmates, should she reach the finals. Finally, as several people have pointed out, Probst went out of his way to mention her a couple of times during the MvGX live final/reunion show, and flagged her as a Game Changer contestant (but not, oddly, Zeke) during the Game Changers preview segment. That has to mean something, right?

Negatives: Michaela's game could go south for two reasons completely outside her control: She has a really grim chance of being voted out very early, simply because she's a woman of color and that's what Survivor does these days. Alternatively, she and Zeke could each be targeted because nobody knows who they are. Or she could be booted for both reasons! Hopefully, however, being one of the few standout physical players on her initial tribe will help counteract those forces, and give her time to get her bearings with the new cast.

4. Tony Vlachos

Positives: Tony is, simply put, the most dangerous player in whatever season he appears. Everyone seems to know that, but even so, can they realistically keep up with his non-stop frenetic gameplay? Chances are, he'll have an idol (or at least claim to) by the end of Day 1. How the rest of the cast responds to Tony will go a long way towards forecasting how far Tony can get with a group that already knows about his bag of tricks. Will his tribe timidly steer away from playing with fire, and cast their votes elsewhere? Or will they take him head on, force him to play his idol, and/or split the votes against him , to at least take out a potential ally (if he has any), or a challenge liability they were planning to target anyway? Tony's antics worked to skew that decision to the former, safer position the last time, so there's at least a chance it will work again.

Negatives: We're of course excited to watch #TeamTV until his show is cancelled, but we're really, really worried that it won't last for long. Who's itching to align with Tony? We haven't seen anyone say they are. Furthermore, unless they're both lying in pre-game press, it doesn't sound like Tony will be forming a winner's alliance with Sandra any time soon, no matter how much fun that would be to watch. Other similarly oriented players like Malcolm also seem hesitant. As glorious as an Aubry-Michaela-Sandra-Malcolm-Tony-Varner majority alliance on the Mana tribe would appear on paper, there's no evidence it's even being considered. *Sigh*. You could all take turns being in charge! Think about it, people! Can't we all just get along? (Eight months ago.)

Bottom line: If anyone on this cast can turn an alliance of one into a winning game, it's Tony. Unfortunately, we're extremely worried that this scenario is pretty much his only path to victory. Then again, that was our worry in Cagayan, too, and we all know how that turned out.

5. Andrea Boehlke

Positives: Andrea was a standout player in Redemption Island, then made it pretty deep before being blindsided in Caramoan. She's a longtime fan, and she's been interviewing recent contestants for PeopleNOW. So she should know the people she's up against fairly well. She was last on the show eight full seasons ago, which is far enough back that some people (at least Michaela) don't seem to know her well enough to want to target her immediately. If she makes the merge, she could have a shot, and is a threat in individual challenges.

Negatives: She has the job of her dreams in real life, so why play Survivor again? Apart from that, her scheming in Caramoan seemed a little transparent, and her castmates regarded her as paranoid. (Although, to be fair, JT is looking for a new Stephen, and Andrea does live in New York now, so maybe that's an asset?) She's a good all-around player, but hasn't yet shown the strategic chops of a Cirie or a Tony or an Aubry. (Again, to be fair, Boston Rob didn't allow anyone else to actually play in her first season.) But in a season of big threats, it's also possible that Andrea could find herself surrounded by useful shields and a goat or two, and Cochran her way to the million. It could happen.

6. Cirie Fields

Positives: She's Cirie Fields, duh! One of the finest social/strategic players the show has ever seen. Effortlessly charming, quietly ruthless. So close to winning twice, then an untimely early exit in Heroes vs. Villains. That finish may help defuse her Gangster-in-an-Oprah-suit reputation. Zeke wants to work with her. Michaela wants to work with her. It was long enough ago that several people may not even know who she is, and there are actual former winners here, so maybe there's a chance?

Negatives: Unfortunately, Micronesia is one of the best-known seasons and Cirie and the Black Widow Brigade are unquestionably at the center of it. And if everyone doesn't know what Cirie is capable of doing if she stays in the game, surely there are enough that do know to educate the casuals. Maybe not Caleb, but probably everyone else. As with Sandra, Cirie will face early opposition because she's both a massive threat in the game and because she's been a poor challenge performer in the past. Just reaching the merge will be a huge struggle for both of them. And if their pre-game interviews are to be believed, they plan to work against each other, not with each other. If anyone is even remotely paying attention, will she even be able to get as deep as she did in Heroes vs. Villains?

7. Sarah Lacina

Positives: Perhaps the most-common winner pick prior to Cagayan, Sarah is a longtime fan with strong challenge skills, particularly on puzzles. She's perceptive (famously identifying Tony as a fellow police officer before Cagayan even started) and tough. She drove much of the early strategy in the Brawn tribe, until fate isolated her on post-swap Solana. Still, she made it through to the merge, only to overplay her hand and bicker with Kass, giving rise to the first-ever use of the #ChaosKass hashtag. In her favor, it's been a while since Cagayan, and she and Tony are the only two from that cast here. Having that time to reflect, while also allowing people's memories to fade should help her tremendously.

Negatives: Sarah's attempted power grab at the Cagayan merge was her undoing, and mostly her own fault. For all her skills of perception, she failed to read that people in her alliance were quietly chafing at being told how to vote. Since she seemed to mostly blame Kass's flip for her demise (which, to be fair, was partly responsible), that could be a problem if she fails to guard against that this time through. Also, while Sarah looked like an effective strategist early on in Cagayan, it's worth noting that her big moves (trying to take out Cliff, mostly) did not work out until after she left in the swap. There's definitely still untapped potential in Sarah's game, but also a fair number of question marks.

8. Zeke Smith

Positives: Zeke made a big impression during Millennials vs. Gen X, coming back (like Adam) from an initial blindside to nimbly navigate trust clusters, and most visibly, convince a ragtag bunch of underdogs to draw rocks for him. He ultimately fell short, but played hard and fast, and provided a worthy foil to David Wright, until Adam prevailed over them all. He's willing and eager to work with Cirie, which could be an all-time great strategic power couple, if it comes together.

Negatives: Probst appears to have actively sabotaged his entire game before it even started by introducing the MvGX duo as playing back-to-back, "like Russell Hantz." As a conniving strategist, that is absolutely the last comparison Zeke needs people to be making before they get to know him. Hopefully his ebullient charm can convince his new castmates otherwise, because he's also the least athletic guy on the jock tribe. His only real kindred spirits on Nuku are Cirie and maybe Andrea or Tai. There are no obvious Adams or Hannahs to regroup with if the first Tribal doesn't go his way this time. Terrible draw for Zeke, and it may explain why Probst neglected to mention why he was on Game Changers during the MvGX reunion show preview of this season. Let's hope he can at least reach the swap at 18, then put his skills to use moving forward.

9. Hali Ford

Positives: She would seem to be in a favorable spot, based on the past patterns for returnee appearances. She's smart, she's athletic, and she didn't last very long her first time, so she's on nobody's radar. So she has a pretty good shot of at least reaching the merge again. Where she goes from there will likely be a change from her previous game.

Negatives: Who is she? We haven't really seen enough of Hali's game to know how well or poorly she could do in the post-merge. In Worlds Apart, she was the victim of an enormous opposing alliance at the merge, and Jenn's idol could only be used once, while Joe's challenge prowess limited the options to her or Jenn. As with Sierra, the theme of the season may work against Hali if she reaches the end without having some Game Changing moves under her belt. She could be capable of that, but who knows?