For a man delivering a triumphant return to economic health, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg cut a nervous figure at the lectern.

Perhaps it was the steep learning curve upon which he's had to embark in the past few months. Or maybe the reports over the weekend of worrying opinion polls in his own seat of Kooyong were unsettling. Then again, he may have got wind of the impending storm brewing around (now former) assistant minister Andrew Broad.

Whatever the cause, it was difficult to ignore the defensive tone.

The dramatic turnaround in the nation's fortunes, he insisted, was not just a matter of luck. This was about sound economic management.

Sound management may certainly have played a part. But even the Treasurer couldn't ignore the overwhelming contribution made by commodity prices, a factor over which he and his colleagues have absolutely no control.

After rolling through a series of graphs that clearly will form the basis of next year's election — along with $9.23 billion worth of what appears to be unspecified tax cuts over three years — the Treasurer hammered home the Coalition's economic management credentials.

Prudent spending featured prominently. So too, did lower taxes. These are the key elements that delineate policy across the political divide and it's clear the Government is pinning its re-election hopes on the now rescheduled early budget, just a couple of months before the next election.

Tax cuts are forever, revenue boosts can be short-lived

On paper, it sounds perfectly reasonable to hand back $9.23 billion of an anticipated $37.2 billion of surpluses over the next three years.

The only sticking point is that the surpluses are built upon assumptions and guess work. The tax cuts — cleverly listed as "decisions taken but not yet announced" — are far more definite.

As we've learned only too painfully before, tax cuts are forever while revenue boosts often prove short term.

Central to the Government's forecasts are assumptions about inflation and wages growth. Both read like a wish list from Reserve Bank governor Phil Lowe — the kind of wish list that's proven unattainable so far.

Inflation here and abroad has been painfully weak for years. Even the mid-year forecasts note that it's fallen this financial year compared with last. Next financial year, however, it's forecast to rise to 2.25 per cent before moving up to sit right in the RBA sweet spot of 2.5 per cent in 2020/21.

It's a similar story for wages. Wages growth has barely risen from the mat, after an extended period of record lows, currently sitting just about 2 per cent. By 2020/21, however, it is due to rise to 3.5 per cent, well above the inflation rate.

Budget bets against the house

One key statistic received just scant mention; net debt. We heard how the growing surpluses will slash its size compared to the size of the economy. We were told the Coalition inherited a debt problem from the Rudd and Gillard years.

But it's worth noting that the Abbott government inherited a $159 billion debt from its predecessors. That's more than doubled during the Coalition's six years in power, now sitting at $352 billion.

Australia's debt position is laughably small when compared with other developed nations. But our economy is far more exposed to the vagaries of global trade, to just a few raw materials and one country in particular, China, adding a layer of vulnerability not shared by most other economies of this size.

Mr Frydenberg, backed by experienced Finance Minister Mathias Cormann, hammered home the undeniably strong labour market since coming to power. More than a million jobs in six years, the bulk of them full-time.

The unemployment rate has dropped to 5 per cent; the level most economists deem to be full employment. But just like the UK and elsewhere, wages have failed to bounce.

Ultimately, though, it was what wasn't mentioned that grabbed attention. The downturn in Sydney and Melbourne housing, and the potential drag on growth that could provide, largely was glossed over.

Mr Frydenberg has found himself in the fortunate position of being the first Treasurer in a decade to announce a surplus. Clearly, he can see the headwinds facing Australia and the global economy. But first, he has an election to fight.