Poll uncertainty lingers as count nears finish line

Almost a week has passed since Thais cast their ballots, yet many things are still shrouded in uncertainties.

This is due to the lack-lustre performance of the Election Commission (EC). I will cite just one example to drive the point home -- voter turnout figures.

After a long delay, the poll agency finally released poll-related figures late yesterday afternoon, hours after the well-respected scholar, Viroj Na Ranong, did his own math and suggested that voter turnout rates might actually be higher than 60%, exceeding the EC's previous estimate.

Prof Viroj, who based his calculations on figures uploaded on the #Vote62 app, said he was confident that the turnout rate must have exceeded 70%. In its release, the EC said the turnout rate was 74%.

In my humble opinion, vote turnout figures are one of the easiest things to calculate and confirm, especially in this "Thailand 4.0" era. However, for the first time in Thai political history, the exact numbers remain fluid even after four days of the ballots were counted, and the EC never explained why.

Another uncertainty that marred the poll is caused by the new proportional representation model that was applied in this election. As we have all witnessed, its application resulted in no clear winners. One side claims victory by virtue of having won the highest number of MP seats, while the other said it won the race because it netted more popular votes.

The former is a group of Pheu Thai-led parties with an anti-junta stance, which won 137 MP seats, while the latter is the pro-military Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) -- which, according to the latest EC release, won 8.4 million votes as opposed to the 7.9 million votes announced earlier this week.

I have to admit the new system is not easy to comprehend. Even Somchai Srisuttiyakorn, former election commissioner, found the poll rules too hard to understand, let alone accept.

The outspoken Mr Somchai who is now a "loser" -- by which I mean he lost the poll race as a Democrat candidate for Samut Sakhon -- yesterday called for the charter's drafters to clear the air. No one responded to his call.

Will the new figures give the junta more bargaining power -- and therefore, the mandate -- to form a coalition government? No one can say.

Based on the long-held political tradition, the party that wins the most number of seats should be given the priority to get the ball rolling in terms of forming a government.

The only thing that is certain is that this is a race against time, wherein the winner will be whichever side that is able to secure the support of politicians from different parties that share the same goal of preventing a party gaining absolute power. However, the anti-junta faction will have to work much harder, since the current regime has the backing of the 250 handpicked Senate members, who has the right to vote in the next premier.

What is clear ironically is that the shifting dynamics have enabled some political parties to take advantage of the political uncertainty to force other parties to the negotiating table. Among them, is the Bhumjaithai Party, and perhaps the Democrats -- without Abhisit Vejjajiva.

With all things considered, it may appear that pro-military parties have the upper hand when it comes to leading the coalition government with the incumbent PM returning into premiership. That said, this prospect is also shrouded in uncertainty.

However, if that turns out to be the case, Gen Prayut will learn for himself that the omnipotence he has under the draconian Section 44 will eventually be gone.

The army-chief-turned-politician has to know he can no longer maintain his strongman approach, now that the bargaining process has begun. The headaches he loved to complain about since he became prime minister won't be able to compete with the ones he will be having if he returns to power -- but this time, he cannot complain as it was his own choice to stay in politics.

Gen Prayut will also have to face ngoo hao -- literally, cobra -- politicians, which means dealing with betrayal by politicians who have pledged support, which will not be easy, either.

Soon, he will learn that members of the House of Representatives will not as obedient as the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) handpicked by his military regime.

Gen Prayut should also learn he cannot cater only to the 8.4 million voters who voted for PPRP, but also those on the opposite side. This is crucial now that Thailand's political rivalry is moving away from the red-shirts versus yellow-shirts conflict, into a clash between pro-military and anti-junta groups. The desire to fully transform into democracy has become so strong, that he cannot afford to ignore the voices of the people.