Why California Should Be Worried About a Coronavirus Outbreak LA+SF Follow Mar 1 · 11 min read

One month ago on January 29th, 2020:

There were around 7,700 confirmed coronavirus cases and 170 deaths caused by COVID-19 worldwide.

The spread of the virus was mainly a problem in city of Wuhan and Hubei province in China. Little was known about the spread of the virus in other countries.

The Dow ended trading at around 28,500 points, near its highest levels of all time.

Today Sunday, March 1st, 2020:

The first US death and a second case of COVID-19 of unknown origin (community spread) has been confirmed in California.

There are now over 85,000 confirmed accumulated coronavirus cases and over 2,900 deaths caused by COVID-19 worldwide since the outbreak in Wuhan.

Confirmed cases exist in over 50 countries, and has infected every continent except Antarctica.

Costa Mesa in Orange County granted a temporary restraining order of 30–50 people suspected of being infected with the coronavirus from being moved or transferred to the city.

San Francisco, San Diego, and Orange County have declared a state of emergency or are on high alert due to the novel coronavirus.

The Dow Jones Index sheds 3,500 points or more than %10, in a matter of days.

Quite a lot has changed in just 30 days.

“But it’s just the flu, not a pandemic…”

For those of you who have been paying attention, the World Health Organization (WHO) has avoided the use of the word “pandemic” in their press releases and updates.

Their justification: to keep the public from overreacting, causing chaos, and perhaps more damage from irrational behavior.

Instead, the WHO has raised their risk levels to “very high” and are now switching focus from containment to preparation.

So while they haven’t specifically declared the coronavirus an “official pandemic”, actions taken by local and state governments are making it quite clear that we are in the early stages of a worldwide pandemic.

Consider that the coronavirus led China, the second largest world economy, to lockdown and quarantine its citizens against their will, and take measures that can only be described as draconian and totalitarian.

Such drastic measures like the ones described, aren’t taken for a run-of-the mill flu season. So why compare it to the flu?

The coronavirus is not just the flu. It’s a global health emergency.

Schools and universities are being shutdown.

Global business conferences, religious and large social gatherings have been cancelled.

Tokyo is even considering cancelling the 2020 Summer Olympics.

The last time the Olympics were ever cancelled was 76 years ago in 1944, due to World War II.

If you live in California and that doesn’t cause more concern to you than your average flu, keep reading. This is for you.

By the way, if you’re already convinced of the magnitude of the coronavirus, a few helpful links to the official Center for Disease Control (CDC), World Health Organization (WHO), California Department of Public Health (CDPH), and a few local government pages are listed below.

Please keep in mind that the following article is not meant to incite fear.

The intention is to outline how a potential outbreak of the coronavirus in California would effect its residents, the United States, and global economy.

California’s Population

Photo by Jack Finnigan on Unsplash

California has a population of over 39 million people.

Los Angeles is the most populated city in California and second most populated city in the US with just over 4 million people. Second only to New York City.

The region of Southern California contains 12.9 million people, and is the most populated area in the state and country.

Fun Fact: In 2016, California’s total population surpassed Canada’s (roughly 37 million).

By JimIrwin, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=876623

But perhaps even more incredible is that 75% of California’s residents live in 3 major metropolitan areas.

Southern California

Counties: Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and Ventura

Total Population of: 17,877,006

Northern California

Counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, Santa Cruz, San Benito, San Francisco, San Joaquin, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, Sonoma

Total Population of: 8,153,696

Sacramento

Counties: El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo, Yuba

Total Population of: 2,414,783

Traveling within California

California has a lot of people, and they also get around.

Consider some of the most common routes taken by car:

San Francisco to Silicon Valley: an hour

Los Angeles to San Diego: 2 hours

San Francisco to Sacramento: 2 hours

A drive from Los Angeles to San Francisco: 6–7 hours

A flight from LAX to SFO is only 90 minutes, and is the most common flight route in the US.

So what do large populations and driving time in between cities have to do with the coronavirus in California?

To put it simply, the ease of travel between densely populated cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles, makes it very easy to infect lots of people very quickly.

Proximity to other people, is one of the biggest risks of a coronavirus outbreak.

Cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco are perfect breeding grounds for viruses to infect thousands upon thousands of people, within a few hours or days without even being detected.

What has happened in Wuhan and the rest of China over the past few months is a grim wake up call for large metropolitan areas not just in California, but worldwide.

Avoiding direct contact with people in large cities is often difficult, but possible. However, avoiding indirect contact with infected people (via the things they touch) is nearly impossible.

Public surfaces like handrails, turnstiles, doorknobs, and faucet handles, are perfect distribution points for the coronavirus to await and infect unsuspecting victims.

With the amount of people and travel between California’s major metropolitan areas, once the coronavirus has taken foothold, infecting mass quantities of people is almost trivial.

What’s more is that California is home to a diverse mix of different ethnicities, cultures, business activities, and social and professional gatherings of all types, which makes it a nexus of activity for people across the globe.

In the next few sections, I will outline why a severe coronavirus outbreak in California would be devastating not only because of the effects of the disease within the population, but its effects on the economy and stability of our daily lives.

California’s Economy

Photo by Sharon McCutcheon on Unsplash

In 2019, California’s GDP totaled $3.137 trillion dollars and is the highest of any state in the US.

If it were a country it would have an economy greater than the UK and India, and rank just below Germany.

California’s economy relies on a vast number of people working in a variety of critical industries such as: agriculture, technology, medicine, entertainment, and defense.

I suppose they don’t call California the Golden State for nothing.

Goods

Photo by sergio souza on Unsplash

California is home to the Port of Los Angeles, the largest port in United States.

If you live on the West coast of the United States (Pacific Northwest, Southwest, etc), odds are very high that many products that you own right now, were first manufactured in China and delivered to the Port of LA by shipping container.

That includes items many of us use every single day.

Food. Clothing. Medicines. And nearly all of our electronics.

Keep in mind, your iPhone (or other Apple product) might say that it’s “Designed in California” but they’re still mass produced in China.

Unlike ports on the East Coast, California is situated on the edge of the Pacific Ocean and provides the most direct route from China’s shipping ports to the US. Making Californian ports a critical part of the US and global goods infrastructure.

Consider that a short-term disruption in the flow of goods may only cause a small hiccup to the economy and daily life, but a longer term delay/reduction of goods would be catastrophic, not just for Californians but the US as whole.

The outbreak in China is already causing much longer lead times from factories, and may bankrupt businesses who rely on a constant source of cheap goods from overseas.

Should an outbreak disrupt the Port of LA from operating at normal rates, supplies for store shelves would drop, dramatically increasing the price of goods for consumers.

In short, this boils down to empty shelves, long lines, and high prices at your local stores.

Services

Photo by The Creative Exchange on Unsplash

“So what? I’ve got everything I need at home!”

If disrupting the state and national supply chain don’t cause you concern, consider the mass quarantines that are occurring in China, Korea, Italy, and Iran because of the coronavirus.

Most services rely on in-person, face-to-face interactions.

Limiting the number of direct interactions between people (aka social distancing) would crush the core of most service based businesses.

Imagine not being able to go to the movie theater, the park, your favorite restaurant, Disneyland, or Sea World.

What about school, work, or your social gatherings?

Or what about a major sporting event at Levis Stadium, Oracle Park, or Staples Center?

Where people congregate are opportunities for service businesses to earn. Once those opportunities are removed, so are the incomes of many businesses small (like restaurants) as well as large (like entertainment venues).

Both physical goods and service businesses in California would be hit incredibly hard by a coronavirus outbreak.

California as a Destination

Lastly, let’s discuss a few of the reasons why people come to California in the first place.

Entertainment

Photo by izayah ramos on Unsplash

Hollywood. LA. The OC. Theme parks.

I don’t need to say much about this since most of you know that a large portion of the Entertainment industry works and lives here.

The coronavirus is already having some second-order effects on the industry not only in terms of theme parks and venues, but now the actual production of content is now being affected.

The Tech Industry

Photo by Carles Rabada on Unsplash

California’s Silicon Valley is a region just South of the San Francisco Bay Area. It’s home to Facebook, Google, Netflix, and thousands of high-tech startups that generate a tremendous amount of revenue for the state.

South San Francisco, is known as the “Birthplace of Biotech”, or “Biotech Bay”.

Lesser known is Silicon Beach, comprised of tech companies in Southern California near Venice, Santa Monica, and Marina del Rey.

The high tech sector produces over $275 billion in economic output, which is higher than the national GDP of Finland.

That being said, here’s a list of the events that tech companies have already cancelled due to COVID-19.

The effects of a coronavirus outbreak on California’s tech industry would be catastrophic to the economy.

Education

Photo by Emily Karakis on Unsplash

Chance are, you might have heard of:

Stanford

Berkeley

Cal Tech

UCLA

USC

These are some of the finest universities in the nation, if not the world. Not only are these universities at the top of most overachiever’s wish lists, they are all located in California.

They attract the best and brightest people, especially from Asian countries like China, Japan, and Korea.

While this isn’t a justification for xenophobia, keep in mind that these institutions accept and educate some of the best students from all over the world and not just Californian residents. This means potentially infecting students and educators.

Schools and universities in Japan are starting to shut down schools due to the coronavirus.

Fears of a coronavirus outbreak in the educational sector are similar to that of the business sector.

The situation is a bit of a double-edge sword that cuts in both directions.

Shutting down top universities would hurt the economy. However, keeping them open may lead to further infections and spread of the virus.

What can we do?

The Bottom Line

California and its people contribute to a large portion of the US economy, and currently the US economy sets the benchmark for the entire world.

Should the coronavirus become uncontainable in California, its impact on the businesses, educational institutions, and the people that reside here will be deeply felt across the globe.

My feeling is that the coronavirus has been infecting Californians since the beginning of the year, and we are only now seeing a rise in confirmed cases due to revised testing protocols.

If you still aren’t convinced that a coronavirus outbreak in California is something that you need to pay attention to and prepare for, I suggest talking someone from the health care industry, and ask them for their opinion.

They are on the front lines of the outbreak and can give you a clearer picture of what’s actually going on.

What You Can Do

For residents in California who have the ability to prepare for the inevitable effects that coronavirus will have on your life and the lives of your loves ones, here are some very simple things that you can start doing.

What you can do:

Learn how to wash your hands properly

Start practicing social distancing now as part of your daily routine. Avoid direct contact with people (handshaking, kissing, etc) as much as possible.

Consider a plan to work from home if at all possible. If remote working isn’t an option for you, figure out how to best protect yourself and others with personal protective equipment (masks, gloves, etc) while on the job.

Learn how to detect common symptoms of the coronavirus and know your local hospital’s protocol for testing and how to deal with the situation if you are tested positive.

Start buying extra food, water, medicine and basic protective gear in case of local shortages.

And, possibly the most important thing you can do is to stay informed.

Everyone in California should be aware of the impact of a potential outbreak of the coronavirus and take the steps necessary to protect yourself and those around you.

Remember, this article is my logical take on a global situation, and is intended to help create awareness and a sense of personal responsibility should things get worse.

I hope this information serves you well. But more importantly, I hope you act on it accordingly.

Stay healthy fellow Californians!