PARIS — Few people will be watching the outcome of Germany's election Sunday more closely than Emmanuel Macron.

The French president has staked his credibility on plans to overhaul the eurozone, with its own budget, finance minister and parliament. But to get off the ground, his vision needs German backing.

And while Chancellor Angela Merkel — who has cautiously backed some of Macron's ideas — is almost certain to be reelected, the composition of her governing coalition will weigh heavily on German attitudes toward the French president's proposals.

To make sure that France's vision for Europe factors into German coalition talks, Macron has scheduled a big speech on the bloc's future for Tuesday — just as party bosses in Berlin will be getting down to business.

Of all Merkel’s potential coalition partners, the Free Democrats (FDP), also known as the liberals, are most blatantly opposed to Macron’s ideas for Europe.

In the remaining months of 2017, France anticipates the start of the most direct and frank period of Franco-German dialogue in decades, as competing visions of Europe's future are laid bare and debated in public.

The best France can hope for is that those talks begin quickly, in a spirit of total honesty, and without some external crisis forcing Berlin and Paris to put the Europe debate on the back burner.

"If you take a step back, this is a rare moment," Jean Pisani-Ferry, one of the main architects of Macron's economic platform, told POLITICO. "We have calm on the markets, a favorable economic situation, no immediate political emergencies. This is the right time for each side to say what they think and to spell out what risks they see for the future."

"What's important is that we reach creative compromises. We need to move beyond tactical considerations and look toward a common end goal. This is going to require frankness, honesty and depth," he added.

Here are five things France would like to see emerge after Germany's election.

1. A strong Merkel

The German chancellor has not always been on board with French proposals, especially on Greece and eurozone bonds. But in the past five years, France feels Merkel has embraced many French-inspired proposals that were not obvious wins for her conservative base (Europe's banking union, an anti-dumping initiative, ECB monetary policy, to name a few).

The French interest is that Merkel is reelected with a big score for her Christian Democrats, so she has a clear mandate to lead Germany into the next phase of EU history. "It will be up to Merkel. At the end of the day, she decides, and she is very familiar with French views on Europe," said a high-ranking French official who asked not to be named. "In a way, the stronger she is, the better."

2. A not-too-strong FDP

Of all Merkel's potential coalition partners, the Free Democrats (FDP), also known as the liberals, are most blatantly opposed to Macron's ideas for Europe. In a June interview with POLITICO, FDP chief Christian Lindner said that Macron's vision amounted to a "Soviet Union-style system in which at some point the systematic losers will turn against the European Union and the euro."

On the sidelines of a campaign event in Hanover last week, Lindner struck a similar note. He said his party’s red line on European policy was a refusal to accept a common budget for the eurozone funded by taxes that currently go into national budgets, as mooted by Macron.

“We don’t begrudge Mr. Macron and all European partners their success,” Lindner told POLITICO. “But [a eurozone budget] would be a sort of permanent fiscal equalization scheme and a transfer union that would endanger the future of Europe.”

"There is an opportunity to be seized" — Jean Pisani-Ferry

The FDP stands a chance of joining Merkel in government as her sole coalition partner or as part of a three-way alliance with the Greens. Having them there in any form is bad for Macron. "If the FDP is in the coalition, there is going to be a learning curve," said the French official. "It will be more complicated on defense, at the least."

Pisani-Ferry, a professor of political economics, said: "The FDP has taken hard positions on a number of subjects. When you look at them, there are few manifestations of joy at Macron's proposals. That's not going to make things easier. We need to say things clearly, and early."

3. Quick coalition talks

Regardless of which parties end up in Merkel's coalition, France hopes a government is formed quickly. Paris wants to start talking about the EU with a stable German government as soon as possible. "We have three months in which to move on these issues," said the French official. "We need to move ahead fast." Early next year, Macron wants to start holding "democratic conventions" in EU nations with the aim of building pro-EU sentiment. Not having a common position with Berlin because of lengthy coalition talks would muddy his message.

4. A constrained Schäuble

French officials are too diplomatic to ever mention the German finance minister by name. But they do note opposition in his government to many of Macron's proposals — opposition that is most commonly voiced by Schäuble. He is against a eurozone finance minister or budget, noting that such changes would require a treaty change, and wants instead to upgrade the power of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). Macron has agreed with this suggestion, but declared on a visit to Greece last month that a stronger ESM was not sufficient to deal with eurozone imbalances. When a new German government is in place, it remains to be seen whether Schäuble remains in post. But he is popular with German conservatives, and chances are he will remain. The best France may be able to hope for is that his reservations about many aspects of Macron's vision do not overwhelm talks.

5. Time and space

No one in Paris is under any illusion that agreeing with Berlin on the future shape of the EU is going to be easy. In fact, it's now common to say the talks are going to be tough, that there will be hard knots of disagreement, and that everything may not be achieved. What France wants to avoid is not having a serious debate because some major unforeseen event forces the bloc back into the crisis-management mode of the past decade. "There is an opportunity to be seized," said Pisani-Ferry.