The Timberwolves are one of the most interesting teams in the NBA, and there is a lot of difference in opinion on how they will perform.

With new additions Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Jeff Teague and Jamal Crawford, this team will be expected to jump from their 31 wins of last season straight into the playoffs. That’s a tall task for a franchise that has missed the postseason in 13 consecutive seasons, but coach Tom Thibodeau is ready for the Wolves to start winning now.

“If you’re waiting on potential, you’re waiting on losing,” Thibodeau said after the team’s final preseason game Oct. 8. “We can’t wait on potential any longer.”

The Wolves have the talent on paper to make some serious noise in the Western Conference. Karl-Anthony Towns and Butler are widely considered top-15 players, if not better. Teague is two years removed from an All-Star season and still in his prime at age 29. Andrew Wiggins is a player on the rise that the franchise deemed worth a $148 million extension. And Gibson is a solid veteran presence.

The starting lineup will have some nice names, but the Wolves will still have a lot of fit and stylistic issues to deal with. Here are the major obstacles the Wolves will face this season on both sides of the ball and how they can overcome them.

How bad will the spacing problems be?

The biggest concern offensively for the Wolves is their lack of 3-point shooting. Their projected starting lineup will certainly have far less outside threats than most, and that will hamper the spacing on the court. But this was a team that was dead last in 3-pointers per game last season and still managed a top-10 offense. They will find ways.

One potential fix that the Wolves have experimented with is getting Gibson more comfortable with shooting corner 3-pointers. He’s only attempted 35 3’s in his eight years in the league, but Thibodeau has been trying to coax him further outside to clear up the middle of the court.

The issue is that defenders haven’t been respecting Gibson’s shot and have elected to camp out in the paint instead of coming out to guard him. That has presented big problems for the Wolves and gummed up their offense.



In order for the Wolves’ starting lineup to function optimally, they have to prove to opponents that they can’t leave Gibson wide open. Gibson did his part in the preseason. After being ignored by the Warriors’ Jordan Bell on the previous play, he showed no hesitation in draining his shot when left open again.



Gibson has taken just five 3-pointers through three preseason games, connecting on three. He doesn’t need to be a great shooter or take a lot of them, but he needs to at least prove that he can’t be left wide open.

With regards to the other starters, Teague, Towns, Butler, and Wiggins are all competent shooters. None could reasonably be considered dangerous outside threats though, and the Wolves will have to get crafty with plenty of off-ball movement to make up for defenders sagging off them.

Can Thibodeau win with bully ball?

An MVP-level Derrick Rose provided a lot of beautiful highlights for Thibodeau’s Bulls offenses, but in truth the Bulls’ attack was based more on beating other teams up in the trenches. They would fight for every available offensive rebound and force contact to get to the line. That created an atmosphere where opponents knew that they would be feeling the physical effects of playing well past the final buzzer.

The Wolves already did a pretty good job in incorporating Thibodeau’s offensive formula last year. They were the third-best offensive rebounding team by percentage and eighth in free-throw attempts. They should challenge for the number one spot in both categories this season.

Butler’s offensive game is largely predicated on brute-forcing his way towards contact to create space for his shots. He drew the third-highest total of attempts in the league last year, and he has company among the top of the leaderboards —Wiggins was 10th, Towns was 19th, and Teague was 23rd. With so many elite foul-drawers there is little doubt that the Wolves will be among the league leaders in free throws. They’ve been the third-best team in the preseason.

The Wolves’ offensive rebounding should also improve, and they’ve been the number one team in the preseason. Butler is a very good offensive rebounder and a big upgrade from Zach LaVine in that respect. Gibson is a better offensive rebounder than Gorgui Dieng, who isn’t too shabby himself. The Wolves might not rain down threes, but they’ll be close to the basket to get multiple chances at scoring.

Free throws and offensive rebounds aren’t the most aesthetically-pleasing form of offense, and there will probably be less spectacular highlights with the loss of Ricky Rubio and Zach LaVine. But those areas are deadly in their added efficiency, and that strategy can work. The Cleveland Cavaliers rode it to a championship over a much sexier Golden State Warriors offense two years ago.

The Wolves were already the 10th-best offense last season, and with better and more talented personnel to fit Thibodeau’s preferred style of play, they should creep up a few spots.

Will the veterans accelerate the defensive learning curve?

Thibodeau created the best defense in the league in his first year with the Bulls, helping them improve nine spots in the rankings. It was therefore a bit of a disappointment that the Wolves only rose one spot in Thibodeau’s first year in Minnesota, moving from the 27th-ranked defense up to 26th.

The Bulls were able to make a quick turnaround because of how quickly their big men picked up the system. It helped that they brought in Brian Scalabrine as a player-coach to work with their young bigs. Scalabrine was familiar with Thibodeau’s system from their shared time with the Boston Celtics, and he helped communicate Thibodeau’s message.

“It’s going to be difficult for the bigs,” Scalabrine warned before that season began. “The bigs control everything because they have to see what’s going on. The guards need to make adjustments, but it’s all about the bigs making calls, making them early, and making them loud. I think that’s going to be the thing we need to do is make sure the inside players are calling out the coverages.”

The Wolves’ big men did not have nearly the same level of success as the Bulls as far as picking up the system quickly. Without that foundation, the whole defense crumbled.

Minnesota’s big men should benefit from the added voices of Butler, Gibson, and free agent point guard Aaron Brooks. Thibodeau had a reputation for grating on his players, and hearing the same message from multiple sources should be a more effective way of teaching his defense. Gibson in particular will be vital in playing the Scalabrine role on this team and teaching Towns and Dieng how to quarterback the defense.

Along with internal improvement from their young players, the Wolves should also be a lot better defensively because of the personnel they’ve swapped in. Teague is a defensive downgrade from Rubio, but Butler is still one of the best lock-down wings in the league.

What makes Butler so great? He has excellent anticipation and is good for a pick-6 steal in almost every game.



Butler is also a very difficult player to screen, much stronger than people give him credit for, and he cares a lot on that end. He rarely if ever criticized the Bulls’ offenses while in Chicago but often ripped poor defensive efforts. He will take his teammates to task if he feels they aren’t trying hard enough.

The synergy of Butler and Gibson should also help the Wolves. Those two have years of continuity, and they know how to shut down an entire side of the floor together. Take this play from the team’s third preseason game, where both Butler and Gibson switched onto three different players within a 10-second span and took away multiple looks that the Warriors tried to create.



Towns still has a long way to go as a defender, and the Wolves struggled defensively in the preseason, but playing the Golden State Warriors twice will do that to a team. Don’t expect the Wolves to become an elite defense overnight, but they should see marked improvement from their spot near the bottom of the rankings.

The bench

The Wolves’ starting unit will be formidable, but they will experience a significant drop-off once they dip into their bench.

That won’t be a problem if everyone stays healthy, but there are some big injury risks on this team. Towns and Wiggins have been impressive in their durability — they’ve missed only one game combined in their careers. Teague is similarly durable. But Gibson’s ankles are made of glass, and he’s missed an average of 11.5 games in the last six seasons. Butler’s aggressive playing style and heavy minute load has contributed to an average of 13.25 missed games over the past four years.

Tyus Jones is a solid backup at point guard, and Thibodeau has a lot of confidence in newcomer Brooks. Jamal Crawford should in theory provide some instant offense, although he has been declining rapidly and he won’t contribute much on defense. Dieng is a decent rotation guy, Shabazz Muhammad can score, and Nemanja Bjelica can at least keep defenses honest.

Can Thibodeau balance minutes to keep his players healthy? The past results haven’t been great, and an injury to Butler or Towns would be disastrous.

Prediction

Most analysts have the Wolves hovering right around 50 wins. Nate Duncan has them at 51 wins, and Jon Krawczynski predicted 47. ESPN’s Zach Lowe has them at under 50. Las Vegas has set its over-under at 48.5 wins.

Fifty wins seems about right to me. Wiggins, Towns and Dieng should see improvement based on their aging curve alone. The Wolves were stymied by their defensive ineptitude last year, and the trio of Butler, Gibson, and Thibodeau were so successful in Chicago that it’s hard to see them staying that bad on that end. They should do better in close games too, as Butler is statistically one of the best clutch performers in the league and the Wolves were one of the worst teams in crunch time last year.

The offensive fit problems are a concern, but Thibodeau is a good coach and they can find ways to work around those issues. This is a team that he wants to push to win now, and they should be an exciting watch. If they can find some good luck with health, they should easily get into the playoffs and hit that 50-win mark.

(Top Photo: Richard Mackson/USA TODAY Sports)