Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate





US Unemployment Rate fell .01 to 8.1%

In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,638,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 945,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,693,000 .

. The Civilian Labor Force fell by 342,000.

T hose "Not in Labor Force" increased by 522,000 . If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed.

. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed. Those "Not in Labor Force" is at a new record high of 87,419,000.

By the Household Survey, the number of people employed fell by 169,000 .

. By the Household Survey, over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,237,000.

Participation Rate fell .2 to 63.6%

There are 7,853,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

Over the past several years people have dropped out of the labor force at an astounding, almost unbelievable rate, holding the unemployment rate artificially low. Some of this was due to major revisions last month on account of the 2010 census finally factored in. However, most of it is simply economic weakness.

Jobs Report at a Glance

US Payrolls +115,000 - Establishment Survey

US Unemployment Rate dropped .01 to 8.1% - Household Survey

Average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.5 hours

The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.8 hours.

Average hourly earnings for all employees in the private sector rose by 1 cent.



April 2012

Jobs Report

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, retail trade, and health care, but declined in transportation and warehousing.

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted

Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey - Annual Look - Seasonally Adjusted

Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey - Monthly Look - Seasonally Adjusted

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Index of Aggregate Weekly Hours

Average Hourly Earnings vs. CPI

"Success" of QE2 and Operation Twist

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.8 percent. In March, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) had an over-the-year increase of 2.6 percent; growth in prices has recently been outpacing growth in earnings.

Not only are wages rising slower than the CPI, there is also a concern as to how those wage gains are distributed.

BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box

Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way.





Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2011

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012

Birth-Death Note

Household Survey Data

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Those not in the labor force rose by 2,693,000

Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs People retire because they cannot find jobs People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job

Part Time Status

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Table A-15

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Grossly Distorted Statistics