“If we get this done and tax reform, he believes we pick up 10 seats in the Senate and we add to our majority in the House,” Collins, Trump's first House endorser, told reporters. “If we don’t get it done, we lose the House and the Senate.”

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It's a vast oversimplification, at best. The idea that two bills — no matter how significant — will determine what happens in an election still 20 months away, with no variables changing that outcome, is tough to swallow. It's a thoroughly Trump prediction.

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We can say one thing about the prediction: It's not crazy — at least not completely. Democrats are actually defending Senate seats in 10 states that Trump won in last year's election: Florida, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Republicans, meanwhile, are only defending one state won by Trump's Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton: Nevada. So it's got a whiff of plausibility, at the very least.

But what it would also be is unprecedented. Republicans currently have 52 seats in the Senate, and winning 10 would give them 62. They have never held this many Senate seats in the history of the chamber. They had 61 seats after the 1906 election and also after the 1868 election. (Of course, the Senate had only 92 members in 1906 and 74 members in 1868, so they had a higher percentage of the chamber back then.)

The GOP already has a historic amount of power in the House and in state governments across the country. The Senate currently stands out as the one place where they don't.

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It's also very rare for such a large swing to occur in the Senate, given only 33 or 34 seats — not all 100 — are at stake in any two-year election cycle. Only two elections since World War II have seen a swing in the double digits: 1958 and 1980. Nine seats swung toward the GOP in the 2014 midterm election, but otherwise the recent national “wave” elections have seen smaller swings.

The major problem for Trump's optimistic prediction, though, is Trump himself. Midterm elections are notoriously tough on the president's party; the last time the president's party won more than three Senate seats in a midterm was Franklin Roosevelt in 1934.

And last, there is Trump's approval rating. He's around 40 percent nationally right now, and that's not really “GOP landslide” territory. The idea that Republicans could gain such a historic amount of ground, period, strains credulity. The idea that it could do so with an unpopular president is even tougher to accept — no matter what happens with the AHCA in the coming weeks.