May 10, 2018

As reactions to the United States’ decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal continue to reverberate globally, NATO member Turkey has made its displeasure clear. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani that Washington’s move was “wrong.” In a telephone conversation held Thursday, the two leaders reportedly discussed the potential effects of the deal and Erdogan said he favored the preservation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that was signed in 2015 between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany. According to Turkey’s state-run Anadolu news agency, the pair also focused on improving bilateral economic ties.

Airing Ankara’s worries, presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin declared, “The unilateral US decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement will lead to new conflicts and instability.” He added, “We do not wish the Iranian people to be negatively affected by these sanctions and we won’t hesitate to do our part if we’re to do something about them.”

Iran is among Turkey’s top suppliers of oil and natural gas and a vital land bridge for Turkish truckers carrying goods to Central Asia. They are unable to access the region via neighboring Armenia, a far shorter route, because of Ankara’s refusal to open its borders with the former Soviet republic out of solidarity with Armenia’s top enemy Azerbaijan. The longtime regional rivals share a porous mountainous border and a common fear of Kurdish separatists active on both sides. The fear of Kurdish gains overseen by US forces in northern Syria has propelled Iran and Turkey into shelving their differences over the Syrian regime and their respective claims of leading Shiite and Sunni Muslims and forming an alliance with Russia.

The timing of the US withdrawal will have shifted Turkish conspiracy thinking into even higher gear.

The decision comes as a federal court in Manhattan prepares to sentence Mehmet Hakan Atilla, a Turkish banker accused of involvement in a Byzantine scheme that saw Turkey’s state-owned Halkbank allegedly conspiring with now jailed Iranian-Turkish gold trader Reza Zarrab to launder hundreds of millions of dollars through the US financial system on behalf of Iran. Erdogan and assorted Turkish officials have long charged that the case is part of a global plot to undermine Turkey. Meanwhile, Turkish businessmen nervously await the scale of an expected fine to be levied on Halkbank by the US Treasury and its likely effects on Turkey’s wobbly finances.