Welcome to Week 23 of the TWC Power Rankings! Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray. Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Rank Change Team Last Week Record TWCScore 1 – Tampa Bay Lightning 3-0-0 55-13-4 889.3 2 +3 Calgary Flames 2-1-0 44-21-7 811.3 3 -1 San Jose Sharks 2-2-0 43-21-8 809.4 4 – Boston Bruins 1-2-0 43-20-9 797.1 5 -2 Toronto Maple Leafs 1-3-0 43-24-5 794.5 6 +1 Vegas Golden Knights 2-0-0 40-27-5 791.8 7 -1 Carolina Hurricanes 2-1-0 39-25-7 786.6 8 – New York Islanders 3-1-0 42-23-7 782.3 9 – Pittsburgh Penguins 2-1-1 39-24-10 774.5 10 +2 Nashville Predators 2-1-0 41-27-5 763.4 11 +2 Winnipeg Jets 2-1-0 42-25-4 758.0 12 -1 St Louis Blues 1-2-1 37-27-8 756.0 13 -3 Washington Capitals 1-2-0 42-23-7 753.6 14 – Columbus Blue Jackets 2-1-1 40-28-4 751.7 15 – Montreal Canadiens 1-2-0 37-28-7 740.6 16 – Minnesota Wild 1-2-1 34-30-9 735.8 17 – Dallas Stars 2-1-1 37-29-6 733.8 18 – Philadelphia Flyers 2-2-0 35-29-8 724.2 19 +1 Arizona Coyotes 2-1-1 36-30-6 710.7 20 -1 Colorado Avalanche 1-2-0 31-29-12 710.0 21 – Florida Panthers 2-1-0 32-28-12 709.8 22 – Buffalo Sabres 1-3-0 31-32-9 682.9 23 – Edmonton Oilers 2-2-0 32-33-7 682.0 24 +1 Chicago Blackhawks 3-0-0 32-30-9 681.9 25 +1 Vancouver Canucks 2-0-1 30-32-10 669.1 26 -2 New York Rangers 0-3-1 28-31-13 660.1 27 – New Jersey Devils 2-2-0 27-37-9 651.7 28 – Anaheim Ducks 3-1-0 30-35-9 642.4 29 +1 Detroit Red Wings 1-2-0 25-37-10 619.4 30 -1 Los Angeles Kings 0-2-0 25-38-8 617.4 31 – Ottawa Senators 2-1-0 25-41-6 616.5

Power Ranking Notables

Another week, another Tampa Bay Lightning top ranking. It is a foregone conclusion that they will remain in this position for the rest of the season. The rest of the top five remained the same this week, albeit in a different order. The Calgary Flames jumped back to second place, more on them later, while the Toronto Maple Leafs fell to the fifth position. The San Jose Sharks also fell a single position, as a result of the Flames jump. This top five has established themselves as the main contenders for the cup, and barring any significant droughts will continue to make up the top five for the remaining weeks.

Two interesting teams to note are the Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets. Ranked 10th and 11th respectively, the two top teams in the Central division are surprisingly low on the list compared to the other division leaders. Both teams are being hampered by a few poor statistical categories, but still are in a dead heat for the top spot. It’s anybody’s guess who finishes on top, but it’s safe to say that they should be a bit higher.

Taking a look at the wild card race as it currently stands, the Montreal Canadiens and Minnesota Wild are the two teams just on the outside looking in on the playoff race. Both teams ironically rank 15th and 16th on our list, creating the perfect divide between the playoff field. Of course the Dallas Stars and Arizona Coyotes are the two teams that are holding down playoff positions that aren’t in our top 16. Are these teams likely to swap by game #82 or will they stay in their current positions?

Biggest Gainer and Loser

Gainer: Calgary Flames (+3)

From the biggest loser last week to being the first Western Conference team to clinch a playoff birth, it has been a wild week for the Flames. Going 2-1-0, the Flames burst out offensively, with outstanding performances from Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk, after going stale for a while. Although they slowed down with a loss to the Jets, they appear to be getting their groove back just at the right time.

Loser: Washington Capitals (-3)

The Capitals have always been an interesting case this season. Currently tied at the top of the Metropolitan division, the Capitals find themselves in 13th on our ranking after falling three spots. Our rankings take into effect the fact that the Capitals are 20th in CF%, 21st in SCF%, 28th in HDCF%, and 17th in SV% in all situations. This clearly isn’t phasing the team, as they still have a clear path towards home ice advantage. Simply an explanation for their low ranking this week.

What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.

Related:

TWC Power Rankings:

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All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.