In recent years, any writer who predicted that nationalism was the wave of the future would have been regarded as eccentric—at best. All the most powerful forces in business, technology and finance seemed to be pushing towards deeper international integration. New supranational organisations such as the World Trade Organisation, the G20 and the International Criminal Court were set up to handle the cross-border issues that proliferated in a globalised world. Meanwhile the European Union, an organisation in which countries pool sovereignty and forswear nationalism, set itself up as the political model for the 21st century.

In 2015, however, it will become increasingly clear that nationalism is back. From Europe to Asia to America, politicians who base their appeal on the idea that they are standing up for their own countries will grow in power and influence. The result will be an increase in international tensions and an unpromising background for efforts at multilateral co-operation, whether on climate, trade, taxation or development.

The resurgence of the nationalist style in politics became evident in 2014. In India Narendra Modi, who is often referred to as a Hindu nationalist, won a sweeping general-election victory. Nationalist parties made big gains in the elections to the European Parliament, with France’s National Front and Britain’s United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) topping the polls. Scottish nationalists came unnervingly close to winning a referendum on independence from the United Kingdom. Nationalist rhetoric also surged in Vladimir Putin’s Russia, as the Kremlin rallied domestic support for the annexation of Crimea by using the Russian media to portray the outside world as hostile, even fascist.

Fuel for the fire

A widespread disillusion with political and business elites, after years of disappointing economic growth, is a common factor that underpins resurgent nationalism across the globe. In western Europe the added ingredient is anger at high levels of immigration. In Russia it is lingering humiliation about the collapse of the Soviet Union and nostalgia for great-power status. In Asia the extra spice is a shifting balance of power that has encouraged nations such as China and South Korea to focus on historical grievances, particularly against Japan. In America outrage at the growth of Islamic State has begun to stoke an appetite for a return to a more assertive and militarised foreign policy.

Many of these forces will strengthen in 2015. So the nationalist tone to global politics will be more marked.

In Europe key gauges of the strength of nationalism will be the general election in Britain and some local elections in Germany. A strong showing by UKIP in Britain will stoke fears that the country may soon leave the European Union. Meanwhile, the Alternative for Germany party, which argues that German interests have been subordinated to the EU’s, will push to establish itself as the country’s third political force. The French political class will nervously watch opinion polls for more evidence of the rise of the National Front’s leader, Marine Le Pen, as a viable candidate for the presidency.

The most serious threat to the stability of Europe, however, remains Russian nationalism. The biggest security question facing Europe—and perhaps the world—will be whether President Putin rides the nationalist wave he has helped to create, and continues to threaten Ukraine and even the Baltic states.

The relationship between nationalist rhetoric and territorial disputes will also be critical to the future of Asia. Mr Modi of India, Shinzo Abe of Japan and Xi Jinping of China are all energetic nation-builders who have used nationalism as a spur to domestic reforms. But their nationalism also has an outward-looking face. Asia’s big question in 2015 is whether the urge to get on with domestic reforms in China, India and Japan will trump international rivalries. There are grounds for optimism. Though tensions remain high over issues such as the dispute between China and Japan over islands, political leaders are likely to try to manage their differences without conceding on basic issues of principle.

Overall, however, the resurgence of nationalist politics will make 2015 a bad year for international co-operation. The EU will struggle to agree on the measures needed to revive Europe’s economy and to deal with Russia. Russia itself will be increasingly marginalised. That will make it hard to achieve agreement at the UN on everything from the Middle East to climate-change negotiations. The globalised economic system will survive the revival of nationalism in 2015, but co-operation between nations will nosedive.

Gideon Rachman: chief foreign-affairs columnist, Financial Times