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1. Time to move

Blind justice still feels like justice in the short term, but it often leads to regret. No matter how you feel about Penn State's punishments today, the NCAA backed down. What felt to some like justifiable overreach began to simply feel like overreach. This is usually the case when public opinion meets punitive punishment. -- The big 2014 Penn State football preview

TL;DR Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports



Projected S&P+ ranking: 37



5-year recruiting ranking: 27



Biggest strength: A dominant defense probably won't regress.



Biggest question mark: The offensive line simply must improve.



Biggest 2015 game: Beating Michigan (Nov. 21) could mean 10 regular season wins.



In one sentence: The Penn State offense still has a ton of questions, but a great defense and soft schedule could mean double-digit wins in James Franklin's second season. : 37: 27: A dominant defense probably won't regress.: The offensive line simply must improve.: Beating Michigan (Nov. 21) could mean 10 regular season wins.The Penn State offense still has a ton of questions, but a great defense and soft schedule could mean double-digit wins in James Franklin's second season.

A program that spent so long admiring its past has been stuck looking into the future.

In the aftermath of the Jerry Sandusky allegations, cover-ups, and arrests, Penn State nearly got the death penalty, then dealt with a scaling back of sanctions as the NCAA realized what it could and couldn't do.

The Nittany Lions dealt with more coaching searches in three years (two) than they had in the previous 60 (one) and became a lightning rod for rhetoric. From the crowd desperate for vengeance, to the NCAA deciding to swing Thor's hammer (whether worthy or not), to the Penn State fans who wanted Joe Paterno's statue put back up, few have covered themselves in glory when it comes to the words "Penn" and "State" of late.

The football team itself has been the stablest entity of the whole ordeal. Despite change, limitations, and constant reminders of what took place there, the Nittany Lions have put approximately the same output on the field every year. They went 8-4 in 2012 (with an impressive F/+ ranking of 28th), 7-5 in 2013 (a disappointing 58th), and 7-6 in 2014 (45th).

Bill O'Brien and James Franklin combined to recruit well and win more than they lost. Considering expectations, this has been impressive.

In 2015, Penn State turns the page, at least as much as one ever should. Franklin signed a top-15 class, and a 2014 lineup that was already rather with post-Paterno signees gets even more Penn State: The Next Generation. This team might not be ready for any significant breakthrough. But after years of focusing on the future because of the past, the present appears ready to make a visit to Happy Valley.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 8-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 45 Date Opponent Opp. F/+ Rk Score W-L Percentile

Performance Adj. Scoring

Margin Win

Expectancy 30-Aug vs. Central Florida 60 26-24 W 70% 12.0 51% 6-Sep Akron 105 21-3 W 94% 36.0 100% 13-Sep at Rutgers 81 13-10 W 59% 5.4 61% 20-Sep Massachusetts 120 48-7 W 97% 44.8 100% 27-Sep Northwestern 71 6-29 L 7% -33.7 0% 11-Oct at Michigan 54 13-18 L 38% -7.0 17% 25-Oct Ohio State 1 24-31 L 49% -0.8 3% 1-Nov Maryland 62 19-20 L 37% -7.6 17% 8-Nov at Indiana 88 13-7 W 92% 32.2 100% 15-Nov Temple 67 30-13 W 78% 17.9 77% 22-Nov at Illinois 78 14-16 L 54% 2.5 60% 29-Nov Michigan State 11 10-34 L 42% -5.0 2% 27-Dec vs. Boston College 36 31-30 W 61% 6.4 40%

Category Offense Rk Defense Rk S&P+ 21.3 109 15.1 4 Points Per Game 20.6 113 18.6 7

2. A funk and a rebound

Going 7-6, ranking in the top 50, and putting one of the best defenses in the country on the field despite scholarship restrictions was no small feat in Franklin's first year. Eight of the Nittany Lions' 13 games were decided by one possession, and despite youth, awful special teams, and a little bit of bad turnovers luck, they went 4-4 in those. They won a thrilling bowl over Boston College and nearly took Ohio State out of the championship race in October.

For a thin team and a new coaching staff, the season was fine. The way it unfolded, though, with early promise that couldn't be maintained? It felt more disappointing than it should have.

Average Percentile Performance (first 4 games) : 80% (record: 4-0)

: 80% (record: 4-0) Average Percentile Performance (next 4 games) : 33% (record: 0-4)

: 33% (record: 0-4) Average Percentile Performance (last 5 games): 59% (record: 3-2)

Through four games, Penn State was playing like a top-25 team. PSU averaged at least 6 yards per play in three games and allowed under 4.9 per play in all four. After recent early missteps (starting 2012 0-2 with losses to Ohio and Virginia, losing to UCF and getting whipped by Indiana in 2013) this was a nice change. And with only two top-50 teams remaining on the schedule, it seemed like PSU might be on its way to an out-of-nowhere 10-win season.

While the defense remained stout -- until the bowl against BC, nobody averaged 5 yards per play, not even Ohio State or Michigan State -- the offense crashed like a bathtub in a sitcom: over and over, through one floor after another. In their next four games, they averaged 15.5 points per game and an incredible (for the wrong reasons) 3.1 yards per play.

As good as the Penn State defense was, the offense made the opposing defense look even better. The offensive line in this stretch might have been the worst in the country.

The young Nittany Lions did rally. The offense became tolerable, improving just enough (last four regular season games: 4.4 yards per play) to secure two wins and bowl eligibility. And then quarterback Christian Hackenberg found enough protection to look awesome in the bowl win.

Basically, Penn State went from playing like a top-25 team, to a top-90 team, to a top-50 team. We'll see what a year of experience can do for such a limited offense.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE Raw Category Rk Opp. Adj. Category Rk EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 0.73 120 IsoPPP+ 81.2 111 EFFICIENCY Succ. Rt. 36.5% 111 Succ. Rt. + 95.8 84 FIELD POSITION Def. Avg. FP 33.6 123 Def. FP+ 98.9 91 FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 3.4 119 Redzone S&P+ 88.4 103 TURNOVERS EXPECTED 21.2 ACTUAL 26 +4.8

Category Yards/

Game Rk S&P+ Rk Success

Rt. Rk PPP+ Rk OVERALL 114 103 79 111 RUSHING 120 115 112 110 PASSING 62 85 49 102 Standard Downs 115 92 120 Passing Downs 80 57 86

Q1 Rk 69 1st Down Rk 84 Q2 Rk 115 2nd Down Rk 110 Q3 Rk 78 3rd Down Rk 112 Q4 Rk 108



Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp

Rate Sacks Sack Rate Yards/

Att. Christian Hackenberg 6'4, 236 Jr. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9925 270 484 2977 12 15 55.8% 44 8.3% 5.1 D.J. Crook

6 9 57 1 0 66.7% 0 0.0% Trace McSorley 6'0, 195 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8625 Tommy Stevens 6'4, 197 Fr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8600

3. A bowl bump, like it or not

When you are a five-star quarterback in high school, we wait. Every good throw is met with an "And that's why the recruiting services loved him," and every good game is a permanent breakthrough.

Combine that with how we love to overreact to bowl games, even if substantial evidence begs us not to, and the "Oh, Christian Hackenberg is going to be awesome in 2015" consensus formed seconds after he completed 34 of 50 for 371 yards and four touchdowns (passer rating: 156.7) against Boston College.

Mind you, this was the third game all season in which he didn't throw an interception. And he took another two sacks (the 43rd and 44th allowed by Penn State), dropping his per-attempt average to a good-not-great 7.2 yards for the game. And the performance raised his season passer rating to 109.4, well outside of the nation's top 100 for eligible passers.

Hackenberg had a miserable 2014. The Pinstripe Bowl served as a reminder that his spirit wasn't broken, but his offense was for most of the season. Looking at his pass protection, his young receiving corps, and a moribund run game, you could say he didn't get enough help. But the supporting cast returns intact, for better or worse.

Hackenberg has obvious talent. But his offense was so young that it's still pretty young: Hackenberg's a junior, the only returning running back with experience is a junior, three of the top four wideouts are sophomores, five of six linemen with starting experience are either sophomores or juniors.

If the core sticks together for 2016, there could be a major breakthrough. But without any change, how much improvement can you expect in one year from an offense that ranked 109th in Off. S&P+?

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Rushes Yards TD Yards/

Carry Hlt Yds/

Opp. Opp.

Rate Fumbles Fum.

Lost Akeel Lynch RB 6'0, 220 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8851 147 678 4 4.6 6.3 28.6% 1 1 Bill Belton RB

125 526 6 4.2 7.0 29.6% 1 1 Christian Hackenberg QB 6'4, 236 Jr. 5 stars (6.1) 0.9925 49 183 0 3.7 2.7 36.7% 9 6 Zach Zwinak RB

40 112 3 2.8 2.4 27.5% 0 0 Cole Chiappialle RB

22 68 0 3.1 1.6 40.9% 0 0 DaeSean Hamilton WR 6'1, 211 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8737 8 32 0 4.0 3.2 50.0% 1 0 Mark Allen RB 5'7, 186 RSFr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8357 Nick Scott RB 5'11, 201 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8634 Johnathan Thomas RB 5'11, 215 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8697 Saquon Barkley RB 5'11, 210 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9420 Andre Robinson RB 5'9, 215 Fr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.9037















Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target

Rate %SD Yds/

Target NEY Real Yds/

Target RYPR DaeSean Hamilton WR-Z 6'1, 211 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8737 138 82 899 59.4% 29.0% 60.1% 6.5 -108 6.5 104.0 Geno Lewis WR-X 6'1, 206 Jr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9341 100 55 763 55.0% 21.0% 61.0% 7.6 77 7.8 88.3 Jesse James TE

62 38 396 61.3% 13.0% 53.2% 6.4 -68 6.5 45.9 Chris Godwin WR-Z 6'2, 206 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9266 41 26 338 63.4% 8.6% 46.3% 8.2 23 8.2 39.1 Bill Belton RB

37 26 201 70.3% 7.8% 59.5% 5.4 -108 5.4 23.3 Kyle Carter TE 6'3, 240 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8292 35 16 153 45.7% 7.4% 65.7% 4.4 -55 4.3 17.7 Saeed Blacknall WR-X 6'3, 215 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9369 21 10 95 47.6% 4.4% 42.9% 4.5 -34 4.0 11.0 Adam Breneman (2013) TE 6'4, 243 So. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9768 19 15 186 78.9% 4.9% 77.8% 9.8 21 8.2 23.2 Mike Gesicki TE 6'6, 255 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9130 18 11 114 61.1% 3.8% 72.2% 6.3 -20 6.6 13.2 Akeel Lynch RB 6'0, 220 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8851 14 10 57 71.4% 2.9% 35.7% 4.1 -62 3.8 6.6 Brent Wilkerson TE 6'3, 253 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8880 4 2 18 50.0% 0.8% 50.0% 4.5 -7 3.8 2.1 Nyeem Wartman-White LB 6'1, 243 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8643 3 0 0 0.0% 0.6% 66.7% 0.0 -4 0.0 0.0 Matt Zanellato WR-Z 6'3, 211 Sr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8378 2 0 0 0.0% 0.4% 50.0% 0.0 -3 0.0 0.0 Gregg Garrity WR-F 5'9, 160 Jr. NR NR DeAndre Thompkins WR-F 5'11, 187 RSFr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9098 Juwan Johnson WR 6'4, 212 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9396 Irvin Charles WR 6'4, 215 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8971 Brandon Polk WR 5'9, 163 Fr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8947

4. High ceilings abound

You don't have to work hard to put a positive spin on the potential of Hackenberg and his skill position guys.

When he got a chance in the open field, Akeel Lynch took advantage; only 29 percent of his carries gained at least five yards, but the ones that did, gained a lot more than that.

DaeSean Hamilton survived his freshman season as a No. 1 target, and while his per-target averages were suspect, he showed potential as a possession receiver (14 catches for 126 yards against Ohio State) and big-play guy (almost 14 yards per catch through the first five games).

Geno Lewis showed even more big-play potential early, catching 25 passes for 462 yards in the first four games. Chris Godwin erupted for seven catches and 140 yards in the Pinstripe Bowl.

That all of these players could be in uniform for 2015 and 2016 is exciting, as is the bounty of young high-ceiling players: four other four-star wideouts (sophomore Saeed Blacknail, redshirt freshman DeAndre Thompkins, true freshmen Juwan Johnson and Irvin Charles), a four-star freshman running back (Saquon Barkley), two four-star tight ends (sophomores Adam Brenaman and Mike Gesicki).

Still, most of these players were in uniform last year, and PSU ranked in the triple digits in quite a few offensive categories. High ceilings or not, Penn State has to improve just to get back to mediocre on offense.

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Career Starts Honors/Notes Donovan Smith LT 31 Miles Dieffenbach LG

26 Angelo Mangiro C 6'3, 315 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.9531 13 Andrew Nelson RT 6'5, 310 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8726 13 Brian Gaia RG 6'3, 301 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8815 12 Brendan Mahon LG 6'4, 316 So. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9011 9 Wendy Laurent C 6'2, 292 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8148 3 Derek Dowrey LG 6'3, 315 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8414 1 Albert Hall RG 6'4, 296 Jr. NR NR 0 Chance Sorrell LT 6'5, 285 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8410

Noah Beh RT 6'6, 282 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8675

Brendan Brosnan RT 6'6, 297 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8457

Chasz Wright LG 6'7, 321 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8233

Paris Palmer LT 6'7, 278 Jr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9049

Ryan Bates OL 6'5, 275 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9281

Sterling Jenkins OL 6'8, 294 Fr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.9138



5. All eyes on the line

Only seven teams allowed more frequent sacks on passing downs. Only three teams allowed more run stuffs in the backfield. Only four teams created fewer downfield opportunities for their backs.

Penn State played a lot of strong defensive fronts; it's one of the Big Ten's strengths. But even adjusting for opponent, and even taking into account the young skill players involved, the Nittany Lions' line stats were miserable.

Really, the line never had a chance. If you want to create a checklist for how to create an awful line, it would look something like this:

Inexperienced two-deep

Injured veterans

Freshmen

Converted defenders

New line coach

Check, check, check, check, and check. PSU entered with only two experienced starters (Donovan Smith, Miles Dieffenbach), and one got hurt. Redshirt freshmen Andrew Nelson and Brendan Mahon combined to start 22 times. Converted defensive tackle Brian Gaia started 12. The lineup changed seemingly every week, and new OL coach Herb Hand had no chance of making much.

None of those checklist items really applies this time. Inexperience could still be an issue, as there's only one senior in the mix, and nobody has more than 13 career starts. But about 80 percent of last year's two-deep returns, including six guys who started at least once. Four-star JUCO Paris Palmer is expected to find a spot in the rotation, and for depth purposes, a new wave of redshirt freshmen enters.

Penn State has a reasonably experienced two-deep and will almost definitely improve up front. The question is, how much?

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE Raw Category Rk Opp. Adj. Category Rk EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 0.75 17 IsoPPP+ 141.8 4 EFFICIENCY Succ. Rt. 34.0% 6 Succ. Rt. + 121.9 10 FIELD POSITION Off. Avg. FP 31.0 43 Off. FP+ 103.0 30 FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 3.4 3 Redzone S&P+ 110.3 29 TURNOVERS EXPECTED 20.2 ACTUAL 21.0 +0.8

Category Yards/

Game Rk S&P+ Rk Success

Rt. Rk PPP+ Rk OVERALL 2 5 9 4 RUSHING 3 4 8 5 PASSING 9 10 21 8 Standard Downs 9 20 6 Passing Downs 3 2 4

Q1 Rk 31 1st Down Rk 5 Q2 Rk 2 2nd Down Rk 5 Q3 Rk 18 3rd Down Rk 6 Q4 Rk 10

6. Passing was the less deadly option

Despite a total offensive collapse, Penn State improved thanks to a ridiculously good defense. Coordinator Bob Shoop, who produced top-30 Def. S&P+ rankings at Vanderbilt in 2011-12, outdid himself with the wider base of talent that he inherited in State College.

And while the pass rush needs to be rebuilt, Penn State returns four of its top six linemen, three of four linebackers, and three of four defensive backs. Shoop didn't play a large rotation, but quite a few difference-makers within that rotation return, and the personality won't change much.

Penn State stopped the run on standard downs and the pass on passing downs. The Nittany Lions had one of the most well-rounded Ds in the country -- third in Passing Downs S&P+, fourth in Rushing S&P+, ninth in Standard Downs S&P+, 10th in Passing S&P+ -- and got better as a half elapsed.

But you can see from the run-pass rates above that opponents determined passing was the more appealing option. This was still an elite pass defense, but there were glitches. UCF and UMass gained a combined 485 yards on 29 completions; those two, Michigan, and BC were able to put up at least a 128.5 passer rating.

If the pass rush regresses due to the loss of ends Deion Barnes and C.J. Olaniyan, then there could be more holes in the secondary. But the pass rush wasn't a huge part of PSU's success. The odds are good that this will again be a stout defense.

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Anthony Zettel DT 6'4, 278 Sr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9338 13 35.0 5.4% 17.0 8.0 3 5 1 0 Austin Johnson DT 6'4, 325 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8422 13 34.0 5.2% 6.0 1.0 0 3 0 1 Deion Barnes DE

13 32.0 4.9% 12.5 6.0 0 1 1 0 C.J. Olaniyan DE

13 29.0 4.4% 5.5 3.0 0 0 1 0 Parker Cothren DT 6'5, 292 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8141 13 9.5 1.5% 2.5 0.5 0 0 0 0 Garrett Sickels DE 6'4, 262 So. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9195 13 9.0 1.4% 3.0 2.0 0 0 0 0 Brad Bars DE

13 8.0 1.2% 2.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Carl Nassib DE 6'6, 270 Sr. NR NR 13 5.5 0.8% 3.5 1.0 0 1 1 0 Evan Schwan DE 6'6, 258 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8281 13 5.0 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Tarow Barney DT 6'1, 310 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8747 12 4.5 0.7% 2.5 2.0 0 0 1 0 Tyrone Smith DT

12 3.5 0.5% 1.0 0.5 0 0 0 0 Curtis Cothran DE 6'5, 258 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8465 Torrence Brown DE 6'3, 256 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8179 Antoine White DT 6'1, 289 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8553 Kamonte Carter DE 6'4, 257 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9065 Ryan Buchholz DE 6'6, 241 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9056



















Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Mike Hull LB

13 107.5 16.5% 10.5 2.0 1 3 1 0 Nyeem Wartman-White LB 6'1, 243 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8643 12 53.5 8.2% 3.5 0.0 1 0 0 0 Brandon Bell LB 6'1, 231 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8544 11 35.0 5.4% 7.0 2.0 1 3 0 0 Jason Cabinda LB 6'1, 247 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8256 8 12.0 1.8% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0 Gary Wooten LB 6'2, 239 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8556 11 8.5 1.3% 1.5 0.0 0 0 0 0 Von Walker LB 5'11, 213 Jr. NR NR 12 8.5 1.3% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Jordan Dudas LB 6'0, 217 Sr. NR NR 10 3.5 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Ben Kline LB 6'2, 238 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8565 Koa Farmer LB 6'1, 219 RSFr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8807 Troy Reeder LB 6'1, 235 RSFr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8687 Manny Bowen LB 6'2, 206 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9029 Daiquan Kelly LB 6'2, 205 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8786



















7. Got a pass rush?

We're talking about the pass rush because it's about the only area of the defense that suffered any sort of loss. Barnes and Olaniyan were both solid, though it certainly bears mentioning that while they combined for nine sacks, dynamic Anthony Zettel had eight by himself. (He also had nine non-sack tackles for loss and eight passes defensed. He is fantastic.)

Sophomore end Garrett Sickels had two sacks in limited opportunities, and in Zettel, enormous Austin Johnson, and reserves Parker Cothren and Tarow Barney, PSU has one of the best sets of play-making tackles in the country. The line was so good that Shoop rarely had to rely on his linebackers; on a top-10, high-havoc defense, PSU linebackers combined for only four sacks, only one more than what safeties managed.

Barnes might be missed as much in run defense as pass rush. He was one of five defenders with at least five non-sack TFLs, and while three return (Zettel, Johnson, linebacker Brandon Bell), two do not (Barnes, linebacker/tackling machine Mike Hull). And as good as Zettel and company are, to maintain last year's high level, at least a couple of younger players -- Cothren, Sickels, linebackers like Jason Cabinda, Koa Farmer, or Troy Reeder -- will be asked to perform at a much higher level. I assume it will happen, but it isn't a 100 percent guarantee.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2015

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Jordan Lucas S 6'0, 199 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8256 13 47.5 7.3% 4 2 0 9 0 0 Marcus Allen S 6'2, 206 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8877 13 46.5 7.1% 2 1 0 3 0 0 Adrian Amos S

13 36.0 5.5% 2.5 0 3 7 0 0 Trevor Williams CB 6'1, 196 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8292 12 24.5 3.8% 1.5 0 2 5 1 0 Ryan Keiser S

6 21.0 3.2% 0 0 1 2 0 0 Jesse Della Valle S

13 17.5 2.7% 0 0 2 1 0 0 Grant Haley CB 5'9, 186 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8578 13 15.0 2.3% 0 0 1 2 0 0 Christian Campbell CB 6'1, 186 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8355 10 9.5 1.5% 1 0 1 2 0 0 Malik Golden S 6'1, 205 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8323 8 5.5 0.8% 0.5 0 0 1 0 0 Da'Quan Davis CB

5 2.5 0.4% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Troy Apke S 6'1, 201 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8848 6 2.0 0.3% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jordan Smith CB 5'11, 189 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8291 Amani Oruwariye S 6'1, 196 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8557 Daquan Worley CB 5'10, 183 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8594 Garrett Taylor DB 6'0, 196 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9418 John Reid DB 5'10, 181 Fr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9416



















8. No pressure, Grant Haley

How much faith does Shoop have in his young cornerbacks? He moved an outright stud in Jordan Lucas to safety, with the assumption that sophomores Grant Haley and Christian Campbell and redshirt freshman Daquan Worley will handle themselves fine.

If the gamble works, then PSU will again have an outstanding secondary. Lucas combined four tackles for loss with nine passes defensed in 2014 and has a safety's requisite size. Plus, Marcus Allen more than held his own as a freshman, and Shoop has called field corner Trevor Williams "cold" and "calculated." So that means one of the only question marks is whether Haley can handle a heavier load. He finished the spring atop the depth chart.

In the "good problems to have" category, high-four-star freshmen Garrett Taylor and John Reid might force their way into the rotation. The two-deep is going to be young outside of seniors Lucas and Williams, but the upside is immense.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2015

Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20

Ratio Daniel Pasquariello 6'0, 204 So. 47 37.3 3 13 13 55.3% Chris Gulla 6'0, 202 So. 28 37.3 1 11 9 71.4%

Kicker Ht, Wt 2015

Year Kickoffs Avg TB OOB TB% Sam Ficken 62 60.2 21 3 33.9%

Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2015

Year PAT FG

(0-39) Pct FG

(40+) Pct Sam Ficken 28-28 15-18 83.3% 9-11 81.8%

Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2015

Year Returns Avg. TD Grant Haley KR 5'9, 186 So. 32 20.6 0 Von Walker KR 5'11, 213 Jr. 2 30.5 0 Jesse Della Valle PR 17 7.6 0

Category Rk Special Teams F/+ 116 Field Goal Efficiency 13 Punt Return Efficiency 49 Kick Return Efficiency 121 Punt Efficiency 107 Kickoff Efficiency 122 Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency 55

9. Special teams have to improve

In Franklin's final two years at Vanderbilt, special teams played a significant role in the Commodores' success. They ranked sixth in Special Teams Efficiency in 2012 and 30th in 2013, and that helped Vandy mask regression on offense and defense.

Special teams did not help PSU last year. Granted, Sam Ficken's leg helped the Nittany Lions in the bowl win, but he was scattershot, nearly making the same percentage of long kicks as short kicks. Meanwhile, Penn State was about the only team in the Big Ten to lack a dynamic kick returner, and kick and punt coverage were woeful.

With depth at both receiver and defensive back (backups for these units and linebacker frequently make up a good portion of a team's coverage units), PSU's coverage has no excuse to rank in the 100s again. Losing Ficken means a flip of the coin on field goals, but I would assume this unit at least improves into the No. 80-100 range.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk 5-Sep at Temple 64 12-Sep Buffalo 122 19-Sep Rutgers 79 26-Sep San Diego State 77 3-Oct Army 126 10-Oct Indiana 81 17-Oct at Ohio State 1 24-Oct vs. Maryland 56 31-Oct Illinois 63 7-Nov at Northwestern 62 21-Nov Michigan 35 28-Nov at Michigan State 9

Five-Year F/+ Rk 14.1% (40) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 20 / 27 2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -5 / -1.0 2014 TO Luck/Game -1.5 Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 15 (8, 7) 2014 Second-order wins (difference) 6.3 (0.7)

10. A top-40 team wins 10 games

Penn State survived a woeful offensive line and bad special teams and improved from 58th to 45th in F/+. If the offense improves because of experience and the defense holds steady -- I think both of those ifs are likely -- PSU should move back into the top 40.

So ... with that in mind, take a look at Penn State's schedule. Trips to Ohio State and Michigan State are brutal, and the third-toughest game on the schedule is ... Michigan at home? Maybe Maryland on a neutral field?

The Big Ten is in a strange place. Because Ohio State won last year's national title, and because SEC coaches are whining so much about satellite camps, it feels like the conference is experiencing newfound heights. But while a lot of teams are threatening to improve, not many have. And the dead weight is still legion.

Of Penn State's eight conference opponents, only three are projected to rank higher than 56th. And with a strangely weak non-conference slate (which does include a landmine trip to Temple in Week 1), PSU is scheduled to play three top-50 teams. A top-40 team might win 10 games.

Penn State has plenty of issues. The Nittany Lions might be approaching 85 scholarship players again for the first time in four years, but they are still young and have infinite questions on offense.

But with recruiting improving and the win total likely to increase, this could be a "momentum builds on momentum" situation. Penn State might be in the wrong Big Ten division to compete for annual conference titles -- Ohio State and Michigan State are the two best programs, and Michigan just hired Jim Harbaugh -- but odds are in favor of this becoming a top-25 program soon.