Betting on Trump´s Lies

Back in January, people bet on how much Trump would lie in his Oval Office address and Won $276,424.

We asked our resident data scientists to crunch the numbers to estimate whether Trump would surpass 14,200 lies in office by 31st December 2019.

Key facts & figures:

According to the New York Times, In his first 10 months, Trump told nearly SIX TIMES as many falsehoods as Obama did during his ENTIRE presidency.

In his first 993 days in office, President Trump has made 13,435 false or misleading claims

Trump is averaging 603 lies per-month so far in 2019.

From 1st January to 9th October 2019, Trump has told 5,785 lies.

The Verdict:



“This could be a very good bet. Our machine-learning models indicate a high probability that Trump will smash the 14,200 mark by the end of the year. Our analysis estimates a 54.1% probability that Trump will exceed 14,200 lies by 1st Jan 2020”. - Richard Frank, Data Scientist.

Since we hate to see a good political betting opportunity go to waste, and since we could not find any bookmakers taking bets on this, we decided to partner with a popular online bookmaker to create and open a betting market on Trump's lie total on 31st December 2019 (as recorded by the Washington Post Fact Checker).

TRUMP LIES COUNT AT THE END OF 2019 - BETTING ODDS:





Over 14,200 lies @ 1.85 - Implied Probability 54.1%

Under 14,200 Lies @ 1.95 - Implied Probability 51.3%

We will announce the partner bookmaker which will run this betting market on Monday. Stay tuned!