Written by Timothy Lewis (@MrTeeLew) — October 26th, 2017

In this weekly segment, I apply numbers to context in an effort to uncover plausible trajectories in the wild world of fantasy football. Last week’s segment had me covering Jerick McKinnon, Kenny Golladay, Austin Saferian-Jenkins, Carson Wentz and Denver’s backfield. Welcome to Trends and Takeaways Heading into Week 8. Cheers!

This isn’t hard. Terrelle Pryor has been bad all season and didn’t see the field until the second half of Washington’s Monday night game against the Eagles. The issue with Doctson hasn’t been talent, but health. Drafted in the first round, he was always intended to occupy the WR1 role in the offense. That role was presumptively “taken” by Pryor after he signed a one year deal. After all, Washington didn’t know what they had in their sophomore receiver after he recorded just 6 targets, appearing in 2 games as a rookie. With Pryor proving that he’s more athlete than football player, Jay Gruden made the switch. Week 7 saw Doctson record a career-high 84.3% snap share. Pryor, meanwhile, saw a snap share of 46.8%. While the second year player out of TCU won’t blow you away with his 3 catches on 5 targets for 38 yards, his presence on the field and resulting opportunity to build chemistry with Cousins are priceless.

A little about Doctson:

He was drafted in the first round, stands 6’2”, 202 lbs., and boasts a terrific athletic profile. His overall size and explosiveness made him a premier touchdown threat in college, where he totaled 25 touchdowns in his final two seasons. While he’s seen just 14 targets so far this year, 4 have already been in the end zone. In that same span, Kirk Cousins has a 121.7 QB rating when targeting Doctson. The flashes have been promising, despite the laughably small sample size.

Young Nelson feeling his oats via Keith Allison (Wikimedia)

Whoever saw this coming at the beginning of the season needs to pass what they’re smoking. The cold, hard truth is that Nelson Agholor went undrafted in almost every 12 man league, and has far out-produced Jeffery, ranking 15–20 spots ahead depending on the scoring format. What’s the math say? That Agholor has been the better player in every sense. Let’s do a breakdown:

Targets:

A.J: 54 (12th) — N.A: 35 (46th)

Receptions:

A.J: 26 (30th) — N.A: 24 (36th)

Receiving Yards:

A.J: 354 (27th) — N.A: 366 (21st)

QB Rating When Targeted:

A.J: 81.8 (56th) — N.A: 142.4 (2nd)

Volume appears to be the saving grace for Alshon. He’s being targeted like a WR1 even though he hasn’t performed like one. How long until Doug Pederson’s analytics team influences more plays designed for Agholor? Despite the large target differential, the two have seen similar usage in the red zone and end zone. The surging slot receiver is exploiting linebackers and safeties to convert his looks. Meanwhile, Alshon has been a fringe WR2 for fantasy purposes, struggling immensely with his defensive attention.

Marlon Mack, the time is now

Marlon Mack right at home as a Colt via NFL (Giphy)

This kid is a ticking time bomb. With the season already in the gutter, the Colts have absolutely no reason to run old man Frank Gore into the ground. 4th round pick, Marlon Mack, is finally set to get a bigger load. While his volume didn’t see a significant increase in Indianapolis’ first game without Robert Turbin (IR), the team as a whole offered very little in a zero point performance against Jacksonville. What Mack has provided is everything we look for in a rookie with limited opportunity: Eye-popping efficiency. He’s netted 5 carries of 15 yards or more in as many games, for a league-leading 15.6% breakaway run rate. His yards per carry of 4.8 is tied for 9th, as is his 5.8 yards per touch. While used as a receiver often at Southern Florida, he has struggled catching the ball at times in a Colts’ uniform, with 3 drops and 7 catches on his 11 targets so far this season. At this point, Mack is likely on someone’s roster as a speculative add. Test the waters on his value, as he could be a helpful commodity for a fantasy roster struggling at the running back position.

Dez Bryant’s target buffet

Real time footage of Dez Bryant in the end zone via giphy

Dez Bryant ranks at WR #22 in PPR and WR #15 in standard. This may seem just passable when we consider that names like Nelson Agholor, Jermaine Kearse, and Chris Hogan rank ahead of him. Be that as it may, nearly every name above him on the list has yet to go through their bye week, putting Bryant at a scoring disadvantage.

In reality, he’s been a fantasy football nerd’s wet dream. The secret to Dez’ consistency? Volume, volume, volume. He has seen 8 or more targets in all but one game and double digit targets in two of them. In 5/7 games he has 2 or more red zone targets. In fact, he has a target share of 40% in the RZ, good for 2nd in the league. To be clear, that means 40% of all targets are directed his way inside the opponent’s 20 yard line. His end zone targets? 11 so far, good for first in the league. While one can question his efficiency, what’s the point? He’s remained productive against a murderer’s row of cornerbacks, and has a catch rate of 72% the past two weeks against the weaker defenses of Green Bay and San Francisco. Some tough match-ups still exist down the road, but Bryant’s sheer usage brings him back to familiar territory as a weekly WR1.

Antonio Gates has been a thorn in the side of Hunter Henry enthusiasts since last year. How long can the legend hold on? It appears the Chargers have made their choice, as their past three wins have corresponded with a dramatic uptick in snap share for their second year tight end. Over these games, Gates has posted snap shares of 52.5%, 56.9% and 31%, while over the same games Henry has posted snap shares of 75.6%, 83%, and 81%. In that time, Henry also has 20 targets to Gates’ 5, and 4 RZ targets to Gates’ 1. This is a classic example of a young lion usurping the old alpha. Despite splitting reps with Gates the first half of the year and seeing no involvement in two games, Henry is 18th in targets among TEs. His receiving yards rank 9th, exemplifying his efficiency, and Phillip Rivers has an outstanding 124.4 QB rating when targeting the Arkansas product. After a slow start, this is the Hunter Henry that so many were looking forward to.

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