Will Europe still be a military power in the 21st century?

This question would seemed absurd in the 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, or 20th centuries, all of which had their different versions of European military power. Granted, there was not a single “Europe” then, but individual European states had powerful military means that they used to fight each other often.

If the question was limited to these disputes, we would be content with congratulating ourselves. Or, recalling Europe’s situation during the Cold War, we could note that Europe is no longer at the center of strategic affairs, and again everyone could applaud, taking into account the huge price paid for that “centrality”: the division of Europe, the Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, the constant fear of another war more terrifying than the last one.

But wondering about the future of European military power at a time of somber cuts in defense budgets is not a cause for celebrating European peace or “soft power.” Rather, it is potentially disquieting, for several reasons:

In all the important periods of its history, Europe always maintained a global perspective. Yet now, just when everything has become “global,” the Europeans resist the broader view and the new dynamics of the 21st century.

Europe’s territorial expansion has not been matched by any corresponding expansion of its strategic vision. Asia is still perceived largely as an economic partner, even as United States rightly regards it as a potential strategic headache. Much closer, the Middle East is often understood only in terms of the Arab-Israeli conflict, when even beyond the Iranian nuclear puzzle there are a number of other questions that deserve consideration — Turkey’s new regional policy, or the fates of Egypt and Saudi Arabia after their current rulers are gone. In many ways, the European vision is narrower than it was during the Cold War: For example, Europe has no Russia experts as good as the former Soviet experts.