Summary

Batteries are chemistry in a can and changing the size of the can does not change the energy density or cost of the chemistry inside the can.

According to the “Tesla Battery Report” from Total Battery Consulting, 2170 cells from Tesla’s Gigafactory will not have more energy density or cost less than 18650 cells from Panasonic.

Under optimal conditions, Gigafactory cells will cost $140 per kWh but that figure will be much higher if Model 3 and Powerwall sales don’t keep it running at capacity.

A cost increase of at least $10 per kWh is a virtual certainty when nickel prices recover to levels that are marginally profitable for nickel miners.