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The 2013 Denver Broncos led by Peyton Manning rewrote the NFL offensive record books. Manning achieved the best season of his storied career, passing for 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns against only 10 interceptions. Affectionately named “The Four Horsemen”, the quartet of Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas all caught at least 10 touchdown passes. Together this group was nearly unstoppable on their way to scoring an NFL record 606 points (37.9 ppg).

Buried on that coaching staff was an Offensive Assistant by the name of James Robert (Jim Bob) Cooter who worked closely with Manning preparing scouting reports and gameplans. In 2014 the Lions hired Jim Caldwell to become the 24th Head Coach in the history of the franchise, and Caldwell offered the position of Quarterbacks Coach to Cooter, who had worked under Caldwell from 2009 to 2011 during their time in Indianapolis. Due to ineptitude, dysfunction, or both, Joe Lombardi was fired as Lions Offensive Coordinator only seven games into the 2015 season. The Lions promoted from within and Jim Bob Cooter took over the reigns of the offense, becoming the second-youngest Offensive Coordinator in the league.

While Lombardi’s scheme was complex with varied formations and many substitutions, Cooter’s can be described as simplistic with static formations and limited substitutions. Whereas Stafford previously had scant options at the line of scrimmage other than to run the call from the sidelines, he now has authority to make pre-snap reads of the defense and audible into more desirable plays.

The results have been mixed. Although decidedly more functional and efficient than the West Coast-style scheme previously installed under Joe Lombardi, the 2016 version of “Cooterball” couldn’t manage to score more than the NFL average points per game.

But should we as fans give Cooter a bit of a mulligan so far? Is it possible he has yet to have “his guys” to run his offense?

The makeover that received the most attention during the 2017 offseason in Detroit was the re-designed uniforms (and to that, kudos to Nike for knocking it out of the park). But closer analysis reveals an orchestrated attempt to makeover the Lions offense into Cooter’s desired image. While the Lions can still be expected to feature plenty of 11-personnel looks (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) on offense, offseason acquisitions (specifically Golladay, Fells & Roberts) may have tipped their hand in regards to Cooter’s desire to run more 12-personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR), also commonly called the “Ace” formation. Through Training Camp, this theory seems to have merit.

So what breeds of horse does Cooter prefer? Let’s review the role of each expected pass-catching starter, and find comparables to the skill-position players of the juggernaut 2013 Broncos.

But before I start, it’s important to see how many targets will be available in the Detroit offense this upcoming season when compared to last. The departure of WR Anquan Boldin (recently signed by Buffalo) and WR Andre Roberts (signed by Atlanta) opens up a fairly substantial stat-line of 120 targets, 81 receptions and 9 touchdowns:

Disclaimer: These are high-water marks of what could be achieved by athletes within Jim Bob Cooter’s offensive scheme. I do not expect the 2017 Lions to be breaking any offensive records. If a rash occurs, please consult your doctor.

BLB Analysis: The most important human on the football field, QB Matthew Stafford was blessed with elite arm strength and plus intelligence (38 Wonderlic). Similar to Peyton Manning, Stafford has now been given the option to audible into plays that exploit defensive personnel weaknesses (Omaha!). It cannot be understated: this is what separates the great Quarterbacks from the average, and is paramount to run Cooter’s scheme.

Surrounded by what may be his best supporting cast since 2011, can Stafford once again surpass 5,000 yards and lead the Lions back to the playoffs?

BLB Analysis: In most formations the “X” Receiver is tethered to the line of scrimmage and cannot go in motion. The prototypical “X” receivers are your size / height / weight freaks like Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant, guys who can’t be jammed at the line of scrimmage (unless Darius Slay is lined up across from them).

After Tampa Bay selected Penn State WR Chris Godwin (6’1″ / 209) 84th overall, the Lions (who held the 85th overall selection) traded back and drafted Kenny Golladay eleven spots later. My assumption: Lions GM Bob Quinn was intent on providing Cooter with a receiver who could better fill the “X” receiver role. Training Camp reports have truly created a hype train, and after the first pre-season game it’s still running full steam ahead. Although it’s wise to temper expectations, there’s reason to believe Golladay could actually carve out a solid role this season. Just take a look at the 142 targets Demaryius Thomas received in this offense in 2013! Then factor in the 81 / 772 / 9 stat-line available due to departure of Anquan Boldin and Andre Roberts, and it’s not hard to imagine Golladay catching at least 50 balls in 2017. 2013 Broncos OC Adam Gase threw to Thomas frequently on screens and slants; it will be interesting to monitor if we see similar usage with Golladay in Detroit.

BLB Analysis: The “Z” Receiver lines up opposite the “X”, off the line of scrimmage. During Marvin Jones three years in Cincinnati he regularly lined up alongside 6’4” / 210lb “X” Receiver A.J. Green. Similar to how you can use a flathead screwdriver to open a can of paint, that doesn’t mean it’s the best tool for the job. So after a hot start to the 2016 campaign (newly signed by Detroit), Jones struggled to adapt to being more of a primary focal point of opposing defenses.

On the surface the addition of Golladay should help Jones, allowing him more separation from CB jams at the line of scrimmage by putting him off the line and allowing him to go in motion as the “Z” Receiver. He may also have the most to lose, however, as Golladay looks best to fill the “X” role and Tate is likely to hold the “Z” when lined up in 12 personnel.

BLB Analysis: The Slot Receiver occupies the space in between a lineman and either the “X” or “Z” receiver. A wide receiver who runs like a RB when the ball is in his hands, Golden Tate has been a yards after contact machine since entering the league. It’s unfair to only have Tate listed as a Slot as he’s capable of also playing the “X” or “Z”; a true Swiss Army Knife for Cooter to have within his arsenal.

This is the lone player comparison where the 2016 Lion had better stats than the 2013 Bronco (Wes Welker). I’d expect Golden Tate to continue to catch around 90 balls in 2017, as Cooter recognizes that good things happen when Tate touches the football.

BLB Analysis: “Y” Tight Ends line up on the line of scrimmage next to the Left or Right Tackle (making that side the “strong” side of the formation), generally opposite of the “X” Receiver. These are primarily blocking specialists, however when they also possess some pass catching ability they can provide a wrinkle that the defense needs to be aware of (especially in red zone situations).

The Lions signed TE Darren Fells in Free Agency and made a 4th Rd investment in Toledo TE Michael Roberts, instantly upgrading the position over 2016 Lions “Y” TE Matthew Mulligan. Fells has had a great camp, but after reviewing Jacob Tamme stat-lines from his time in Denver I wouldn’t expect much more than 20 catches from him in 2017.

BLB Analysis: Flex (“F”) Tight Ends are hybrid players in today’s NFL. Whereas they’re capable blockers, they’re best used as pass catchers as they’re both too big for defensive backs and too fast for linebackers in coverage. Arguably playing out of position for much of his Lions career, no one cheered more loudly than Ebron when a) the Lions signed inline “Y” TE Darren Fells and b) drafted inline “Y” TE Michael Roberts. Those acquisitions should get Ebron out of a blocking role and allow him to do what Martin Mayhew drafted him to do: make plays.

As an honorary member of the Eric Ebron Truther Club, I’ve waited patiently for the athletic Tight End to finally have his “breakout” season. Other than rookie WR Kenny Golladay, no other Lion is more poised to fill the 81 / 772 / 9 stat-line available left by the departure of Boldin and Roberts. 2013 Bronco Julius Thomas caught 65 balls, just barely edging Ebron’s 2016 campaign of 61. A realistic goal for Ebron should be 75 / 850 / 5, which would most likely put him within top-3 Tight End statistics and validate his 1st Round draft pedigree.

Note: A better comparison for TE Eric Ebron may be former Colts TE Dallas Clark, who also played with Peyton Manning within a similar offensive scheme. For fun I added Clark’s 2007 stats (Colts Super Bowl year) and his absolute high-water mark stat-line of 100 / 1106 / 10 from 2009.

I’d be remiss to not mention the defense’s role in all of this. By nearly any metric the 2016 Lions defense was abysmal. After having their doors blown off in the 1st half of a Week 3 game versus Green Bay, the coaching staff made a critical decision to neuter the offense in order to protect the defense. This “small ball” approach slowed down the Lions offense considerably, resulting in an offense that ranked first in the league in duration of drive. Shockingly, even with the help of the offense the Lions defense ranked second to last in opponent duration of drive. It seems apparent that this lethargic offensive style, aided by Stafford 4th quarter heroics, can be squarely given credit for leading the Lions to a 9-4 record prior to faltering down the stretch.

One of the key advantages to Cooter’s scheme is its use of up-tempo, allowing the Quarterback to briskly walk up to his offensive line to dial up the next play and limit defensive substitutions. The 2016 Week 1 game at Indianapolis most likely provided the closest glimpse of this. GM Bob Quinn made significant efforts to add speed and athleticism to the defensive back-7 this past offseason, but if the defense doesn’t show improvement it will be all for naught.

However, if the defense does show improvement (regression to the mean!), the shackles can be removed from Stafford and 2017 could turn out to be one heck of a fun ride…..

Fin.

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~ Brian