By this point in the campaign, voters are often decided and the races start to break one way or another. But in four red districts in which Trende expected the Republican candidates to start taking the lead, they haven’t.

AD

“I would have expected they would start breaking toward the Republicans by now, given their partisan makeup,” he said. “I thought voters were Democrat-curious and would now be reverting back to type, but that’s not what we’re seeing.”

AD

So on Tuesday night, pay careful attention to these four races. If the Democratic candidate wins, then the blue wave may actually be a tsunami.

Let’s break down each one.

1. Maine 2nd Congressional District — Jared Golden (D) vs. Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R)

This district, one of the most rural in the country, once was consistently blue. It voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1992. It had a Democratic congressman for 10 years, from 1995 to 2015. But in 2016, voters elected Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton by 10 points.

AD

The race is tied 41 to 41, according to RealClearPolitics’s average, and has been around that the entire time. It’s turning out to be one of the most expensive races in the country, too, with outside groups pouring millions into ads. In fact, the Portland Press-Herald reported Wednesday that the campaign had the most broadcast ads of any race in the country from Oct. 16 to Oct. 25, amounting to a 6,312 ads aired in that time.

Underscoring the delicate balance of the district, Poliquin, the incumbent, has the support of Trump, though in a recent debate wouldn’t say whether he voted for him in 2016. Meanwhile, Golden, a state representative, has said he won’t support House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for speaker if Democrats take the majority.

AD

2. New Mexico 2nd Congressional District — Yvette Herrell (R) vs. Xochitl Torres Small (D)

AD

This is a tried-and-true Republican district that Trump won by 11 points in 2016 and Rep. Stevan Pearce (R), who is running for governor this year, won by 25 points. Yet the race for the congressional seat is statistically tied.

Herrell, a state representative, is very conservative and hasn’t tried to moderate or distance herself from Trump, while Torres Small has campaigned as a centrist and has a campaign ad showing her loading a rifle and hunting, which tells you a lot about the district.

3. Ohio 12th Congressional District — Rep. Troy Balderson (R) vs. Danny O’Connor (D)

Astute political observers will remember that these two just ran against each other in a special election in August and Balderson only narrowly beat O’Connor then by one point.

AD

AD

The seat, held for many years by Gov. John Kasich (R), has been in Republican hands since 1983. It’s one that Republicans are desperate to hold and one that Democrats think they can flip. The district is solidly red and Trump won it in 2016 by 11 points. Although there has been no polling since the August race, there’s no indication that Balderson has pulled away.

4. North Carolina 2nd Congressional District — Rep. George Holding (R) vs. Linda Coleman (D)

Although one recent poll does suggest that Holding is breaking away, this is not a district Republicans wanted to defend. But here they are, days out, still unsure whether they’ll keep a seat that Holding and Trump won by double digits in 2016.