CLEVELAND, Ohio -- You're a real Browns fan. You know that they're not only going to beat Pittsburgh on Sunday, they're going to destroy them. They're going to shut out the Steelers, leaving them without so much as a field goal.

Well, for people was confident as you, Medina car dealer Bill Doraty has an offer - buy a car this week, and you'll get it for free if the Browns keep their rivals scoreless on New Year's Day.

"Lightning can strike. You never know," Doraty said. The Steelers haven't been held scoreless in a game since 2006 - it happened twice that season.

Actually, getting hit by lightning is about as likely as the Browns getting that shutout. The National Weather Service estimates that the odds of getting hit by lightning are about 10,000 to one. Las Vegas odds makers put the risk of the Browns holding the Steelers scoreless at about 5,000 to one.

"Pittsburgh's not going to lay down," said Jay Rood, vice president of racing and sports operations for the MGM Resorts International in Las Vegas. Rood said his 5,000-to-one odds on a Browns shutout is probably being a bit generous.

Still, there's a shot.

Doraty said he faces a lot of competition from other car dealers in Northeast Ohio, and he thought a promotion like this one could make him stand out a bit.

"Anytime that you can do something that's different, that separates you from the crowd, that's what any retailer's looking for," Doraty said.

He expects the promotion to cost him about $30,000. That money will go to the insurance company that's underwriting the event. Doraty said the insurance company is effectively getting a small percentage of each car sold this week. If his sales jump because of the promotion, he'll come out ahead. If Cleveland gets the shutout, Doraty will rebate the purchase prices of the cars sold this week, not including taxes, to his customers.

John Avello, director of race and sports operations for Wynn Casinos in Las Vegas, said buying a $20,000 car in hopes of getting it for free is a risky bet, but it's not a ridiculous one.

"He's effectively offering 20,000-to-one odds. I wouldn't offer that kind of payout" on a shutout bet, he said. Avello was more optimistic than Rood, putting the odds of a Browns shutout at about 1,000-to-one.

Tying sales promotions to longshot bets is nothing new. Doraty's insurer is American Hole in One, a company that specializes in insuring car dealers who want to invite buyers to win cars at driving ranges and golf tournaments.

An even longer-shot promotion came in 2001 when Taco Bell offered to give everyone in America a free taco if Russia's MIR space station fell on a floating target it place off of the coast of Australia. The space station fell closer to New Zealand, so no free tacos.

Robert Ferringo, a sports handicapper for Doc's Sports Services near Madison, Wis., said a Chicago car dealer last week offered to give away vehicles if the Bears shut out the Green Bay Packers. The Packers scored 35 points.

"I think the odds of Cleveland pulling a shutout on Pittsburgh is better than Chicago blanking Green Bay, but it is still a major long shot," Ferringo said in an email. He even noted that in the past 41 meetings between the two teams, there have been four shutouts. OK, so it was Cleveland that was scoreless, but still, that's a lot of shutouts.

Ferringo and Avello both spelled out one scenario that could lead to a Browns shutout. If Baltimore loses Sunday and Pittsburgh wins, the Steelers would win their division and would not have a game during the first week of the playoffs. But if Baltimore wins, it gets the bye week no matter what happens at Browns Stadium.

So if Baltimore scores early and looks like it's going to win, the Steelers could pull all of their key players from the Cleveland game to protect them against injury.

"Let's say that Cleveland gets out to a 14-0 lead and Baltimore gets off to a 14-0 lead, Pittsburgh may say to itself, 'let's concede the division,'" Avello said. That could lead to a Browns shutout and make for a lot of happy car buyers.

Doraty says he doubts anyone bought a car this week expecting to get it for free, but he said it did draw in customers.

"It's definitely making a difference with people who come in. People are talking about it. They're laughing and joking about it," Doraty said. "I hope on Monday I'm talking to you about 100 people getting free cars."