One of the biggest polls ever conducted in Toronto shows residents from every corner of the city are overwhelmingly against Mayor Rob Ford’s cuts.

From Doug Ford’s ward in Etobicoke to budget chief Mike Del Grande’s in Scarborough, the results will serve as a sobering warning to councillors within the Ford voting bloc.

A Forum Research telephone survey of nearly 13,000 people reveals that more than three-quarters of Torontonians want their local councillor to protect services rather than comply with the mayor’s wishes. And only 27 per cent of residents say they would vote for Rob Ford if an election was held tomorrow.

More significantly, because of the poll’s size, Forum was able to provide the first authoritative assessment of support on a ward-by-ward level.

Forum’s poll, which was paid for by CUPE Local 79, one of two major unions at city hall, questioned 12,848 Toronto residents on Tuesday using a random dial, push-button response, phoning system. The margin of error is plus or minus 0.9 per cent, 19 out 20 times.

Some of the strongest opposition to the current direction at city hall is in the wards of executive committee members.

For example, in Cesar Palacio’s Davenport region, 81.2 per cent of residents want him to fight Ford on cuts. In Willowdale, 82.9 per cent of David Shiner’s constituents are against cutting services.

With a “mushy middle” of councillors emboldened by Ford’s sinking approval, losing even a handful of those previously locked-down votes could tip the scales at council against Ford.

“He’s asking these councillors to put their careers on the line,” said Forum president Lorne Bozinoff. “These councillors are potentially exposing themselves and their careers to challenge in three years from someone who comes along and says: ‘Vote for me, I’ll restore those cutbacks.’”

As for Ford’s low approval rating, Bozinoff said one theory is that the mayor is embarking on typical political strategy: get the controversial stuff out of the way fast, allowing enough time for the numbers to rebound by the next election.

“But in this case, his numbers are already low and we’re just talking about cutting services,” he said. “This is not likely to improve for him when he actually carries out some of this stuff. . . I think if the cutbacks are really of the magnitude (being discussed) it could hit him even harder.”

Ford was elected by a landslide last October and — bolstered by the popularity of his “Stop the Gravy Train” message — the mayor has enjoyed a slim but solid majority on council.

A number of councillors within the Ford fold, most of who have been rewarded with high-profile positions on committees or boards, have quietly grumbled over the administration’s constant vote-whipping, intimidation tactics and procedural trickery.

Despite the unrest, Ford’s uncompromising leadership style had been able to keep his supporters in check. Even mushy middle councillors have so far sided with Ford on controversial votes.

But as anger continues to swell over the Pride snub, KPMG consultants, Margaret Atwood fiasco, waterfront power grab and most recently, proposed cuts to libraries, daycares and Riverdale Farm, some councillors have felt emboldened to speak out.

Most recently, Councillor Jaye Robinson (Ward 25 Don Valley West), a member of Ford’s executive, publicly announced she would not support the administration’s waterfront plan.

TTC chair Karen Stintz has been distancing herself from the administration in the past few months and was one of the first to speak out against library cuts. On Thursday, she revealed she would also vote against the mayor on his waterfront plans.

The show of defiance has had many at city hall questioning Stintz’s political future. But if the Forum poll is any indication, Stintz had already sensed the changing political winds.

George Smitherman edged out Ford in Stinz’s Eglinton-Lawrence ward last October. Today, 52.4 per cent of residents say their opinion of the mayor has worsened since the election, 76.6 per cent want Stintz to fight service cuts and 65.4 per cent said they would not elect Ford for a second term.

The Questions

Respondents were asked the following questions:

How has your opinion of Mayor Ford changed since the election? Improved: 17%; Hasn’t changed: 29%; Grown worse: 54%.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

If an election was held tomorrow, would you vote for Rob Ford for mayor? Yes: 27%; No: 60%; Don’t know: 13%.

How much do you agree that your councillor should vote in the interests of protecting city services in your community, even if it conflicts with the wishes of Mayor Ford? Overall agree: 77% (59% say they “strongly agree” and 18% say they “agree”. Overall disagree: 14% (“strongly disagree, 5%; disagree 9%). Don’t know: 9%.

Note: the Star combined “agree” and “strongly agree” answers for the purposes of this article.

Read more about: