The Conservatives fell short of a majority in 2010, a failure that forced Mr Cameron to negotiate his coalition agreement with the Lib Dems and which has haunted his leadership of his party. With barely 14 months until the next general election and despite the recent economic upturn, Labour retains a solid lead over the Conservatives in most opinion polls. Labour is registering around 38 per cent support on average, while the Conservatives are around 33 per cent. Most Conservative strategists believe the party needs more than 40 per cent of the vote to deliver a full Commons majority, an outcome many believe is extremely unlikely.