The Europa League group stage kicks off this week with all 24 matches of Matchday 1 being played tomorrow. We aren’t going to cover them all, instead focusing on a few matches based on the expected outcome of the match and noteworthy clubs of interest to our readership.

At the moment, Manchester United is nominally the favorite, winning in 8% of FiveThirtyEight simulations. However, with so many clubs still in the tournament – not to mention the firepower that could come over from Champions League – the favorite probably shouldn’t truly be anointed until we reach the Round of 32 in February.

Our next match preview from Matchday 1 will feature the club that lost to Chelsea in last season’s UEFA League final and the semi-finalist that lost to Chelsea the round prior. That club, Eintracht Frankfurt, plays host on Thursday night, welcoming Arsenal to Commerzbank-Arena in Frankfurt. The match kicks off at 5:55pm BST (12:55pm EST).

Just like we did in previewing our Matchday 1 Champions League matches, we’re just going to look at how the clubs are faring back home in their home leagues this season, as well as what they did last season. Then we’ll look at the clubs’ respective histories in European competition, and then finish with a brief look at the matchup and who enters the match favored to prevail.

Without further ado, here’s a look at these two club clubs:

Domestic League Performance

Eintracht Frankfurt was a founding member of the Bundesliga in Germany, and has spent most of the past five decades plus playing in the top league in Germany. They have yet to win a Bundesliga title – they won a German championship in 1959 in the pre-Bundesliga era – and have never finished above third in the league, which they have done on fine separate occasions. Last season, they finished in 7th place.

Four matches into the current season, they find themselves in 9th place with a 2-0-2 record. Both wins thus far have been at home, with the two losses – to RB Leipzig and FC Augsberg – on the road. A big early season match also looms large this weekend following Europa League play, with Borussia Dortmund coming to town.

Arsenal is one of the “Big Six” clubs in the English Premier League, and has played in every Premier League season since it began in 1992. They have 13 titles in in the top division their history (three in the Premier League), and their last title in 2003-04 was an impressive one, as they finished the season undefeated (26-12-0), the first club to do so. Last season, they finished in fifth place, a single point behind Tottenham Hotspur for fourth and two behind Chelsea in third.

After five matches this season, they again find themselves in fifth place with a 2-2-1 record. The season began with two straight victories against lower-table clubs Newcastle United and Burnley, but a loss to Liverpool during Matchday 3 and subsequent ties to the Spurs and Watford have them a bit off the pace for a Champions League spot at the moment.

European History

Eintracht Frankfurt has a fairly long history of European competition, and are celebrating the 40th anniversary of their lone European title – the 1980 UEFA Cup – this season. They barely qualified for the tournament this season, securing a spot in the second qualifying round after Bayern Munich won the DFB-Pokal (German league cup) while also qualifying for Champions League. They proceeded to go 5-0-1 in three rounds of qualification, defeating Flora, Vaduz, and Strasbourg by a combined score of 13-1.

Last season, they began Europa League in the group stage and blitzed through their group, winning all six matches during the group stage to advance to the knockout phase. Victories over Shakhtar Donetsk, Inter Milan, and Benfica set up a match with Chelsea in the semi-finals, which Chelsea won on penalty kicks.

Arsenal also has a Europa League title, winning the European Cup Winners’ Cup way back in 1994. In the 2+ decades since, they have reached the final four separate times but have yet to come through with a victory.

Last season’s run to the final was pretty impressive, with the Gunners losing only twice in 14 matches approaching the final. The final was fairly anti-climactic – Chelsea scored three goals in 12 minutes to put it away 4-1 – but Arsenal has to feel like they have a chance to win the tournament this season after coming so close last year.

This Matchup

The clubs have never met in European competition, but have extensive histories against clubs from the opposing country. Eintracht has played 15 matches against English clubs, compiling a 4-5-6 record over the past 60+ years (including two draws against Chelsea last season). Arsenal has played 34 matches against German clubs, with a 15-5-14 record.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Eintracht Frankfurt is slightly favored as the home team (40%), while Arsenal is seen as having a pretty decent chance (35%) to start out this year’s Europa League with a victory on the road. The clubs are both favored to advance to the knockout round out of Group F, so their two head-to-head matchups could be the deciding factor in who finishes first and is seeded in the draw in the next round.

The return engagement to Emirates Stadium – on Thanksgiving Day no less – will likely determine the winner of the group, so expect both clubs to play pretty hard in this one to get the leg up on the other club. I think we’ll see a draw in this one, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see other team find a way to win either.

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