Driverless cars should slow down, some say

Jayne O'Donnell and Ben Mitchell | USA TODAY

The road to automated driving may turn out to be a "near-term collision course," says Massachusetts Institute of Technology researcher Bryan Reimer.

Reimer will be keynote speaker at an autonomous vehicle conference this week in Detroit and many there are expected to join him in echoing the go-slow mantra outlined in the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's policy announcement on such vehicles two weeks ago.

Reimer, who consults for clients including Toyota, says that one fatal crash involving a self-driving vehicle would become front-page news, "shut down the robotic industry" -- and lead automakers to a "major pullback in automatic safety systems" like collision avoidance technology going into conventional cars now.

"Everybody is getting cautious except for one organization – Google - which thinks it's going to change the world" with its self driving car, says Reimer.

Google has used the Toyota Prius and the Lexus RX 450h modified with radar, lasers, cameras, and computers to send a driverless car between locations without incident. The company vows it will have some for sale within a couple years.

"There will always be a set of circumstances that was not expected, that the automation either was not designed to handle or other things that just cannot be predicted," says George Mason University professor Raja Parasuraman, director of the university's human factors and applied cognition program.

The Association of Unmanned Vehicle Systems International, which is sponsoring the conference in Detroit, has vehicle suppliers, car companies, the robotic industry and even drone makers among its members. It calls the conference a "Driverless Car Summit," which by itself highlights a key challenge for the industry: "We don't know what we we're going to call these things," acknowledges AUVSI CEO Michael Toscano.

The word "driverless" may conjure scary images, but the term "autonomous" might be confusing.

Toscano, a former Defense Department official who worked on ground robotics, is enthusiastic about the promise of self-driving cars, but agrees with Reimer that "the thing that will slow down the introduction of this technology in our everyday life on a global scale is safety."

Toyota debuted its first semi-autonomous Lexus at the 2013 Consumer Electronics Expo in January. The vehicle can sense, avoid, and stop short of three dimensional objects on the road. However, during the presentation, group vice president and general manager of Toyota's Lexus Division Mark Templin said he doesn't believe cars will truly become driverless, but rather the vehicle will be a "skilled co-pilot" capable of minimizing risks on the road and protecting drivers from traffic collisions.

"We're taking a very careful, cautious. step by step, incremental approach," says Toyota spokeswoman Cindy Knight. "Most people think of it as a driverless car, but we're using our autonomous test vehicle to further develop high level driver assistance features."

Despite widespread concern, no one wants to be left behind when it comes to at least partially autonomous vehicles.

•Audi is developing a traffic jam feature that can take over driving at up to 40 miles per hour. The car would scan up to 820 feet ahead and monitor surrounding vehicles to keep the car in the lane, accelerate or brake. The company has also demonstrated a car that parks itself at the press of a cell phone button and will return to the driver with another press of the button. Says spokesman Brad Stertz: "We think these technologies will be available within a decade, but a lot still depends on the legal and regulatory environment."

•Ford has a feature for heavy traffic jams that would allow a car to keep up with traffic and stay in its lane without the driver's instruction. It says "Traffic Jam Assist" will be available in the next few years.

•General Motors' "Super Cruise" feature would allow a vehicle to steer, brake, and keep itself in a lane at highway speeds. It is being designed for Cadillac and could be ready by the decade's end.

• Mercedes-Benz.'s "Intelligent Drive" system is capable of scanning up to 165 feet ahead of the car to look for moving objects, and uses a radar-based system to stop itself before an impact. The company is also developing a "Steering Assist System," which is able to carry out "frequently occurring" driving maneuvers, including lane changes and passing slower vehicles, says a company statement. It can't navigate corners, but is designed for highway travel and will be included in the 2014 Mercedes-Benz S Class.

•BMW has developed a semi-autonomous Traffic Jam Assistant, similar to Mercedes' Steering Assist, and hopes to have fully autonomous vehicles on the road by 2020.

Toscano agrees about going slow now, but he remains decidedly gung-ho.

"This is going to be a technology that will change humanity," he says. "It is a revolutionary technology. Some people call it disruptive, but it will change the world, save lives, save time and save money."