BIG Duke has never run 3200m but that won’t stop him winning on Saturday’s Group 1 Sydney Cup, says Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley.

The Darren Weir-trained stayer thrived during his summer stint in Tasmania, winning the Launceston Cup and finishing runner-up in the Hobart Cup, en route to the two-miler at Royal Randwick this weekend.

It’s a sharp upward spiral and he comes up against his best field yet, but Big Duke continues to rise to the occasion.

FORM GUIDE: QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES

RACE WATCH: DAVO’S TIPS FOR RANDWICK

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

$2m SYDNEY CUP (3200m)

Royal Randwick, Race 8, Saturday 3.55pm

1 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN 4 Chris Waller Blake Shinn 57kg $8

2 LIBRAN 13 Chris Waller Hugh Bowman 56.5kg $13

3 ALMOONQITH 3 D & B Hayes & T Dabernig James Doyle 56kg $26

4 TALLY 8 John O’Shea Tommy Berry 55kg $13

5 ASSIGN 9 Robert Hickmott Damien Oliver 53.5kg $7

6 CHANCE TO DANCE 12 Stephen Autridge & Jamie Richards Damian Lane 53kg $18

7 BIG DUKE 5 Darren Weir Craig Williams 52kg $2.80

8 ANNUS MIRABILIS 1 Stuart Webb Katelyn Mallyon 52kg $26

9 MISTER IMPATIENCE 2 Michael Moroney Jay Ford 52kg $71

10 PENGLAI PAVILION 6 Charlie Appleby Kerrin McEvoy 52kg $10

11 KINEMA 7 Chris Waller Tim Clark 52kg $35

12 PENTATHLON 10 John Wheeler Kathy O’Hara 51.5kg $71

13 VENGEUR MASQUE 14 Michael Moroney Patrick Moloney 51.5kg $18

14 POLARISATION 11 Charlie Appleby Corey Brown 51.5kg $15

THE FACTORS

TRACK: Heavy 8

RAIL: Out 4m from 1600m to winning post, then 3m for remainder of track

FORECAST: Sunny, 25C

THE SPEED

English stayers PENGLAI PAVILION and POLARISATION will ensure they run along at a good clip. VENGUER MASQUE will also work forward. BIG DUKE will go forward and should get the run of the race.

media_camera Big Duke settles into a prominent position on the first lap at Randwick last week. Picture: Jenny Evans

THE SKINNY

1 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN

Perennial in Australian feature 3200m races. Lines up for his fourth Sydney Cup having finished second and fourth in the past two years. Fifth in last year’s Melbourne Cup. Handles a soft track.

2 LIBRAN

Finished second in this race last year. Best run this time in was on soft track two starts ago when fourth in the Sky High Stakes on a soft track as he struggles on heavy going.

3 ALMOONQITH

Classy stayer on his day who finished sixth in last year’s Melbourne Cup. Ran on well in the Mornington Cup but only fires on firm surfaces which he won’t get here.

4 TALLY

Honest performer who flies under the radar. Perfectly ridden to run on and win the Mornington Cup last start with 59 kilos. Untried at 3200m but handles the wet.

5 ASSIGN

Lloyd Williams loves to win major Cups and he’s chasing his fifth Sydney Cup with this gelding. Strong win last start over 2000m in the Neville Selwood. He was competitive last spring against Almandin. Had a torrid run in the Melbourne Cup from barrier 22.

6 CHANCE TO DANCE

Former Lloyd Williams owned galloper making his debut for new Kiwi stable after being sold for $250,000 last week. Carried 58 kilos and finished on well for fourth in the Adelaide Cup at only run over 3200m but hardly a vote of confidence that Lloyd has ditched him.

7 BIG DUKE

Former English stayer who has won five of his past six starts and was unlucky on the other occasion. Ran away to win the Chairman’s Handicap last Saturday carrying 58kg and drops to 52 kilos, which looks a luxury. Yet to tackle 3200m but no reason why he won’t run it out.

8 ANNUS MIRABILIS

Forget last start failure on rock hard Mornington circuit. Handles the distance as shown by his win two starts ago in the Adelaide Cup. Gallic completed that double in 2007.

9 MISTER IMPATIENCE

Never a factor last start in the Auckland Cup. Has won over 3200m but can’t seem him being a factor in this.

10 PENGLAI PAVILLION

Charlie Appleby-trained Godolphin performer who has performed well in staying races and hurdle races in England. Two starts ago he won at Newmarket before failing in a Group 1 race in France. Has settled in well. Big watch.

11 KINEMA

Member of the Waller stable who hasn’t gone close this time in. Prospect of a firmer track could see him placed.

12 PENTATHLON

Kiwi stayer who has been well beaten in recent starts. Finished ninth in the Melbourne Cup last year so isn’t hopeless.

13 VENGEUR MASQUE

Fought on bravely when just beaten in the Mornington Cup last start. Emerging stayer who should be competitive.

14 POLARISATION

Godolphin’s other English runner who has also mixed hurdle and staying races in the United Kingdom. His form looks inferior to his stablemate but he’s been working well.

MICHAEL MANLEY SELECTS

1. BIG DUKE

2. Penglai Pavilion

3. Assign

4. Who Shot Thebarman