In a previous column I discussed some interesting research by Craig and Richeson (2014). These researchers found that, in the U.S., Whites (the majority racial group) become more conservative in their ideology upon learning that groups are growing in size (and rendering Whites a numerical minority in the future).

This pair has a new paper coming out that asks an equally interesting question: when learning that another minority group (e. . Hispanics) is growing in size, do other minority groups (e.g. Black Americans, Asian Americans) similarly become more conservative? This is a serious possibility — when faced with threats people often become more right-leaning in ideology and more strenuously defend the status quo (or “the system”) (see Jost et al., 2003). And those with less power and status can be invested in making sure that the system does not change, because change can worsen an already disadvantaged position (Jackman, 2005). Minority groups, therefore, can often become competitive with each other as they struggle to keep (or not lose) their group position. This can promote resistance to change in the status quo.

In their new paper, Craig and Richeson (in press) exposed non-Hispanic minorities (e.g. Blacks, Asians) in the U.S. to information suggesting that: (a) Hispanic populations are growing; or (b) people are moving location but not necessarily growing in group size (i.e., a control condition). Their results reveal a clear pattern. As was true for Whites, when learning that other racial groups are growing in size, racial minorities also shift to the right and become more conservative in ideology. Becoming a smaller group, therefore, threatens those in a numerical majority or minority. This threat encourages people to endorse a status quo that emphasizes tradition and reliance on intergroup hierarchies.

These findings are interesting for several reasons. First, it appears that a conservative response to group position threat is relatively universal — all groups, whether in the majority or minority, appear to react in this manner. This is in keeping with a motivated social (Jost et al., 2003) account of psychological functioning.

But these findings also have practical implications for understanding potential voting patterns. As I discussed in my previous column, Republicans have become concerned that their (largely White) base is shrinking in size, with minorities tending to vote Democrat. But the findings of Craig and Richeson (2014) suggest that if these trends continue Whites will shift further to the right (and thus bolster support for Republicans). And the Craig and Richeson (in press) findings suggest that although minorities tend to lean toward Democrat candidates, this is likely to change, whereby Black and Asian voters may become more conservative as the Hispanic population grows. The deep divide that we see in contemporary American is likely to be with us for the foreseeable future, despite (or perhaps due to) shifts in racial demographics.