Dez Bryant and Demariyus Thomas have been closely tied together since the 2014 season ended. Their situations were identical: star wide receivers in their prime hoping for a huge new deal but getting franchise tagged by their teams despite those wishes (and are also #88). Speculation ran rampant, and talk of holdouts and training camp no-shows threatened to turn two of the safest picks in 2015 fantasy drafts into significantly higher-risk options. That risk is no more. As of July 15th (about a half hour before the 3pm deadline), the deals have been signed and are nearly identical ($70 million over 5 years.) We can officially end the speculation about holdouts and lawsuits and talk football.

I think the overwhelming consensus is that Antonio Brown is the #1 fantasy WR this year, and I would agree with that consensus. After him, you’ve got a number of elite options you could look at in the first two rounds, including the aforementioned Bryant and Thomas, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Odell Beckham Jr, Jordy Nelson, and A.J. Green. When drafting in the first two rounds, safety is my biggest concern. Who is least likely to have a disappointing season? Besides Thomas and Bryant, the other players mentioned all have one or two things that concern me, and even if those questions are minor they are enough to help me narrow the discussion for #2 WR down to two players. Let’s see if we can separate those two.

Safety

When evaluating pick safety, I like to look at what could possibly go wrong, and the likelihood of those things happening. We’ve already established that Bryant and Thomas are safe players. They’re both young and physically gifted with no injury concerns and overwhelmingly consistent production. There’s really no separation between the players risk themselves, but their situations are where we can find some. Peyton Manning is pushing forty, and a quad injury pushed his production off a cliff over the last three games last year (including the playoffs). Thomas averaged 78 yards and 0.33 receiving touchdowns per game during that stretch. Those numbers are from a very small sample size, but they may give us a glimpse into what Thomas’s production might look like if Manning is not playing at 100% this year. Can Peyton recover and get back to his early season 2014 self? Probably. Can he last the whole year at this age? That is a tougher question. For Bryant, the risks are similar. Tony Romo isn’t as old as Manning, but has had several back surgeries and missed several games over the last few years. One good shot could put him down for the rest of the year and torpedo Bryant’s value. Contrary to Manning, however, Romo seemed to get better as the year went on last year. His age doesn’t seem to be limiting his production yet, but his back could. At this point, I’m thinking Manning’s age and injuries carry a little more risk than Romo’s back.

Edge: Dez Bryant

Past Stats

As you can see, there isn’t much separating separating these two statistically. Thomas has a slight edge in overall points, receptions, and yards over the last three years, while Bryant has the edge in touchdowns. Thomas has clearly been in a much more high powered offense with a greater emphasis on the pass over the last three years, and the targets have reflected that. Bryant has been more productive on a per-target basis, with 1.47 compared to 1.41 points per target, but until we see the Cowboys shift back into more of a pass-focus, the stats edge goes to Thomas.

Edge: Demaryius Thomas

Talent

Thomas is a bit taller and faster, but Bryant has better hands. In 2014, Thomas led the league in drops with 10 compared to only 5 for Bryant. Dez is one of the very best in the league at fade routes and jump balls, and the Cowboys consistently look for him in the red zone. Thomas makes much of his damage on shorter underneath routes, and his speed makes him a threat to take it to the house at any time. You can’t go wrong with either of these guys’ talent.

Edge: Push

Situation

This is really where enough variables exist to possibly find some separation. For the Broncos, there’s some uncertainty up front. They lost left tackle Ryan Clady in the offseason to an ACL injury, and guard Orlando Franklin to free agency, which undoubtedly raises some question marks about the offense. Manning did have the greatest statistical season in NFL history with Clady out of the lineup in 2013, so all is not lost. Another big loss is red zone machine Julius Thomas, who bolted for the Jaguars in free agency. His twelve touchdowns in each of the last two years won’t all transfer to Demaryius, but you’ve got to expect his red zone targets to go up. The other major change for Denver is in the coaching staff, as Gary Kubiak takes over for John Fox. The Kubiak-led Baltimore offense finished in the top 11 in rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns in 2014, but that offense didn’t have Peyton Manning. That offense also had a much better offensive line. The Broncos passed on 59.4% plays in 2014, while the Ravens passed on 57.3%, which isn’t a huge difference. I can imagine a more balanced approach for Denver, but I think some analysts are blowing it out of proportion.

Bryant’s situation has much less turnover attached to it. The Dallas offensive line is back in tact and looking great, the coaching staff is mostly the same, and the receiving corps is all returning. There is one glaring difference in the offense, however, and that is the departure of all pro running back Demarco Murray. The Cowboys were among the league leaders in rushing attempts last year with Murray in the backfield. Although those attempts should go down a bit, this team was build from the inside out and will continue to focus on the run – no matter who is in the backfield. Dallas successfully hid their defense and limited Romo’s responsibility by pounding the ball last year, and I can’t see that changing in 2015.

Edge: Demaryius Thomas

Verdict

You can’t go wrong with either of these guys, and it’s still extremely close. The telling stat for me, however, is that Thomas received 47 more targets than Bryant in 2014, and lost his biggest competition for touchdowns in his offense. That target gap should close a bit, but I think Thomas will still get more opportunities and score a few more points.

My pick: Demaryius Thomas

What do you think? Who would be your pick? Sound off in the comments.