The Dragons of Tarkir season has ended. The release of Modern Masters 2015 has closed the door on this era in the tale of Pauper. For this season I tracked all 48 published Daily Events to try and discern the winners metagame. While this data is imperfect (as it does not see the entire field) it retains value because it shows the decks that consistently do well.

The failure of the exclusively Daily Event structure through which Pauper is experienced is that it creates a narrow gap between what is truly great and what is merely good. A single event or even a small sampling may provide skewed results. Looking at an entire season with the same list of legal cards can provide the hint of an image of the decks that have set themselves apart. The decks that do well over the course of multiple weeks help to inform those who follow the format of the decks they should be preparing for (if one follows the logic that the good decks are more likely to be played). Events that go longer than four rounds would do much to help ameliorate this perceived issue as it would show a wider disparity between the decks that excel and those that tread water.

All that being said, here is the chart I used to track this season. Feel free to ask me questions regarding the data recorded.

Here is every distinct archetype that logged more than 3% of the field:

Archetype Field % MBC 15.90% Delver 10.54% Affinity 9.07% Stompy 8.20% Izzet Blitz 7.02% Burn 6.24% Esper Combo 5.37% WW Tokens 4.00% Elves 3.32% Izzet Control 3.32% Goblins 3.22% Dimir Delver 3.02% Other 20.78%





Mono-Black Control helped to define the Dragons of Tarkir season. Not only was it the most popular archetype but the format evolved around its presence. It had the four best weeks of any deck and never fell out of the top three most played archetypes.

Earlier in this season the presence of Mono-Black Control helped to suppress Esper Combo. It is not that Esper is soft to MBC- the matchup is far closer to even. Rather the sheer volume of MBC can make the road for Esper that much harder. Esper is a combo deck that is heavily reliant on creatures so the pressure of MBC’s removal, disruption, and the ability to run Bojuka Bog may have helped to keep Esper’s numbers low.

The shift, however, may have been precipitated by Izzet Blitz. The blue-red deck, focused on Nivix Cyclops and Kiln Fiend one shots enabled by Temur Battle Rage, was very strong in April. In May its performance dipped. The deck is incredibly soft to Diabolic Edict like effects and as the deck’s popularity rose so too did the presence of cards like Geth’s Verdict. Often this would come at the expense of cards like Disfigure or Victim of the Night - instant speed removal which is better against Esper Combo (and Delver). The shift towards a focus on Edict removal opened the door for Esper Combo to experience a resurgence.

The other deck that came on strong at the end of the season was Burn. Mono-Black Control may have had the four best weeks but Burn had the fifth. Burn benefits from operating on a completely different axis than every other top deck. The rest of the best all need creatures to win and therefore combating these permanents is a premium. Burn does not need creatures to win so it can effectively obsolete wide swaths of opposing decks. Mono-Black rests in part on the laurels of its removal. It also has become a plodding deck focused on winning through the five drop Gray Merchant of Asphodel and the first four turns are where Burn can set things on fire with ease. The sheer speed and power of the Burn deck may necessitate a change in construction of MBC moving forward.

Two decks that seemed to underperform this past season were Temur Tron (and all Tron Variants) and Kuldotha Boros (a red-white value deck leaning on Kor Skyfisher). Temur Tron had a strong finish to Fate Reforged season but the banning of Treasure Cruise took the wind out of its sails. Kuldotha Boros nearly amassed 3% of the field, and counting all Kor Skyfisher Value variants bumps the deck up to 4.2% of the field.

Macro Power % MBC 16.10% Delver 10.40% Affinity 9.72% Stompy 8.05% Izzet Blitz 7.02% Burn 6.31% Esper Combo 5.46% W Tokens 5.40% Skyfisher Value 4.15% Elves 3.20% Izzet Control 3.36% Goblins 3.33% Dimir Delver 3.11% Tron 2.81% Other 11.58%



This chart takes into account different variants (such as MBC featuring green for Putrid Leech or red for Blightning) and examines the overall percentage of points won during the course of the season. Here we see that Kor Skyfisher value decks are a viable second tier option, but in all likelihood needs some polish to take it to the next level.

Delver and Stompy are decks that have nearly always been around as long as they have been legal. However both decks had seasons that were below expectations. Delver had 10.54% of the field but only 10.4% of all points. Stompy had 8.2% of the field but only 8.05% of points. This negative discrepancy may not be statistically significant but it still presents an interesting juxtaposition where these decks may have performed worse than their expectations.

Here we have the decks accumulated at least 3% of the field and the average number of wins (from the winning decks).

Archetype Avg Wins Goblins 3.3 Dimir Delver 3.29 Affinity 3.27 WW Tokens 3.27 Esper Combo 3.25 Izzet Control 3.24 Burn 3.23 Izzet Blitz 3.19 Delver 3.16 MBC 3.14 Stompy 3.14 Elves 3.09

Well, this presents a very different image of the metagame. Only Affinity remains in the top five in both instances. While Goblins and Dimir Delver performed better on this metric they also had one-third of the appearances of the machine menace. Given a larger sample size those decks may have seen their Average Win score decline.

In order to help correct for popularity I reached out to the community. Fabian Held let me know about Lower Bound Wilson Score as way to help take popularity into account.

Archetype LBWS Affinity 17 Esper Combo 14 Burn 13 WW Tokens 13 Izzet Blitz 10 Izzet Control 10

So what does this tell us? Affinity had the best score while also maintaining a high level of popularity and a high average win score. For comparison Mono-Black Control scored an 8 while Delver scored a 9. Affinity was simply better than decks with a comparative volume. It is fair to conclude that Affinity was the best deck during Dragons of Tarkir season.

What makes Affinity so good? The deck is fully capable of going traditional aggro and attacking with Carapace Forger and Myr Enforcer, backed up with Galvanic Blast for reach. Affinity can also play along a largely ignored axis with that same Galvanic blast alongside Fling and Atog. In this way Affinity is actually a hybrid, capable of attacking fair decks from a combo perspective and slow decks from an unmatched offensive angle.

Affinity does have a glaring weakness in Gorilla Shaman, although that card is not as popular as it power would seemingly indicate (perhaps due to cost). In fact in weeks where Goblins, the premier home for the Mox Monkey, saw more high finishes, Affinity saw its numbers flag. Now correlation does not equal causation, but it is certainly interesting to note.

So where does that leave Pauper as it proceeds into the Modern Masters 2015 age? The addition of Gut Shot does not bode well in aggregate for Delver and Esper Combo, but only if the card sees wide adoption. Affinity seems to be the clear deck to beat and flexible artifact removal seems like a must at the moment. Mono-Black Control and Delver are both too strong to keep down, but them, as well as Stompy, really need to adapt to the new field of battle.

Pauper continues to be a relatively dynamic format, and the removal of Treasure Cruise has injected some life into the metagame. With a dozen decks topping 3% of the meta and a baker’s resting just outside, the options are there. What do you expect to see in Pauper moving forward?

Me? I’m hoping to cast Plagued Rusalka. A lot.

Keep slingin’ commons-

-Alex

SpikeBoyM on Magic Online

@nerdtothecore

My Facebook Page

Discuss Pauper on twitter using #mtgpauper