Nearly half of Torontonians disapprove of both Premier Doug Ford and his plan to dramatically shrink the size of city council, while a third are in favour of the ward reduction, according to a new poll by Forum Research.

The remaining 19 per cent of survey respondents are neutral on the idea or don’t know how to feel about it. Meanwhile, 70 per cent of Torontonians say they would vote for Mayor John Tory if an election were held today, giving him a commanding lead over last-minute mayoral candidate Jennifer Keesmaat, who had the support of 30 per cent of survey respondents.

“Jennifer Keesmaat’s off to a good start but needs to now make her case,” said Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, which conducted the poll. “She doesn’t have the same name recognition as John Tory but I think she’s successfully taken over the mantle of the centre left.”

But Tory, he added, has a “very, very high” approval rating of 56 per cent. “That means he’s going to be hard to beat, no matter who’s running.”

The poll questioned 1,328 randomly selected Torontonians who answered a phone survey on Friday, when the city was coming to grips with Ford’s explosive decision to redraw ward boundaries just months before the fall civic election, and Keesmaat’s surprise entry into the mayoral race. Results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 per cent, 19 times out of 20, and the survey included both land lines and cellphones.

This is the first published poll to reveal early sentiment on Keesmaat, the city’s outspoken former chief planner and a first-time candidate who squeaked into the mayoral race by registering on Friday, shortly before the deadline.

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Support for Keesmaat is strongest among millennial voters, who are Tory’s weakest demographic — though 62 per cent of people in the 18-to-34 age group still said they would vote for him, versus 38 per cent who supported Keesmaat.

And while the poll shows Keesmaat trailing far behind Tory, he had less overall support — roughly 20 per cent — when he first entered the mayoral race during the 2014 election, which saw him battling two high-profile competitors, Rob Ford and Olivia Chow.

“We’re excited by the energy and support that’s already building around Jennifer’s campaign over only 24 hours,” said Sean Meagher, a Keesmaat spokesperson. “It’s clear that people in Toronto are looking for real, bold leadership that will stand with them and make their voices heard when it really matters.”

Bozinoff notes that Keesmaat faces an uphill battle, however. Tory’s approval ratings have been consistently high, including in the core of Toronto — Keesmaat’s current base of support — where 64 per cent of people said he had their vote, nearly twice as many as the 36 per cent who leaned towards Keesmaat.

“For someone to win, they have to find some of his supporters who currently say they approve of his job and convince them to vote for someone else,” Bozinoff said. “And that’ll be difficult.”

The poll also provides a glimpse into how Torontonians are feeling about Ford’s sudden proposal to reduce city council by half, even though the municipal election is just three months away. On Thursday night, the Star’s Robert Benzie revealed that Ford wanted to reduce the number of wards in Toronto from 47 to 25, while also cancelling elections for regional chairs in Peel, York, Niagara and Muskoka.

The moves have been met with vocal criticism and decried as “undemocratic.” (In a series of tweets, Keesmaat reacted to the news by floating the idea that Toronto should secede from the province.) As of 2 p.m. Friday, more than 300 people had already registered to run for the existing council seats.

Toronto’s ward boundaries were redrawn in 2016 following a years-long process that increased the number of wards from 44 to 47. If Ford’s plan to shrink city council is successful, then each councillor will be accountable to roughly 100,000 residents; under a 47-ward scenario, there would be one councillor representing 60,000 people.

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While 47 per cent of survey respondents disapproved of Ford — a figure that jumps to 61 per cent when looking just at the city’s core — his approval numbers are strong among his base in the inner suburbs, according to Bozinoff.

“He’s in the honeymoon period, off to a good start,” Bozinoff said. “He’s at 46 per cent (approval) in Etobicoke, 47 per cent in North York, 44 per cent in Scarborough — that’s Ford Nation.”

But those same communities are feeling lukewarm about the premier’s proposed boundary changes. Across Toronto, 47 per cent of people are against the idea, with 35 per cent “strongly opposed,” the poll found. Opposition is highest in the former city of Toronto, where 60 per cent of people disapprove of the ward reduction.

Residents in Etobicoke — Ford’s home base — showed the strongest support for the proposed ward changes, with 44 per cent in favour of the idea.

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