It is different walking into the office. As it was in February. “How many points was Wall Street down,” a colleague says as he walks in this week. That morning the Dow Jones was down 127. The assumption that markets will fall instead of rise is a rare state of mind in the broking world, it only happens in a bear market. Of course nobody knows if a bear market has started, but the fact we are discussing it is a sign. The 7.8 per cent fall in the market is another.

There are signs the market is turning bearish. Credit:Travelmarvel

Those that declare a bear market are reckless to do so, their hollow predictions no matter how confident and no matter how eloquently expressed, are little more than attention-grabbing guesswork, and somewhat irresponsible. But financial market commentators know that "calling the crash", no matter how unfounded, attracts attention. It gets hits to run against the herd and invoke fear, it gets hits to suggest everything is going to hell, so someone will always want to do it.

Despite that, an independent, agenda-less viewpoint, delivered without fear, is always interesting and of value, even when wrong. This is how commentators like Marc Faber and Nouriel Roubini have survived for so long despite being so repetitively wrong, because they are independent, free speakers and, of course, just occasionally, when the market tips over, they can claim the high ground and shout “I told you so”. Someone has to sit at the bearish end of the market’s bell curve of opinion and someone has to provide the devil’s viewpoint. It is a good space to occupy because there are not a lot of people there, so you stand out more easily.

But you can’t sit there if you’re trying to sell a financial product in the finance industry. Boom sells, not gloom and doom, meaning that financial market negativity is for people selling subscriptions not financial products. Which is why the bears are in the minority, because it serves nobody’s commercial purpose unless you are selling a newsletter that gorges on fear.