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Not that DBRS was blind to the bad news side of the current situation.

The agency assumes that B.C. will absorb a $750 million hit (lost revenue plus additional expenditure) on the financial statements for the budget year that ended March 31.

For the year that started April 1, the deficit is expected to equal 3.3 per cent of provincial gross domestic product or $10 billion. Overall the economy is expected to contract by 5.5 per cent in real terms.

James says those estimates are “within the impact range” of what she is hearing from other economic forecasters and analysts. Indeed, some forecasts are more gloomy.

But with only three weeks gone in the new fiscal year , she says “it is too early to really know the magnitude. … Nobody really knows what we are looking at.”

Much depends on when the economy begins to reopen and under what conditions.

“DBRS assumed a shutdown of non-essential services that lasts for several more weeks, at a minimum, before an extended period of normalization characterized by a slow return to work and ongoing physical distancing requirements.”

The agency intends to hold off a more extensive review of the province’s credit profile until the economic and fiscal situation has stabilized.

Some of that will be shaped by decisions the province itself will make over the next few week, concedes James.

“But we will take our direction from Dr. (Bonnie) Henry,” the provincial medical health officer, who is already talking about a “slow phased recovery?”