The preliminary Texas RRC Production Data is out this morning. There appears to be a considerable drop in Texas crude oil production in April. All Texas RRC data in the charts below is through April 2015 and all EIA data is through March 2015.

For those new to this site, the Texas RRC data is incomplete. The drooping lines will eventually, after the final data comes in, closer resemble the EIA data. Though I believe the EIA data is quite a bit too high at this point.

It appears that, when the final data comes in that Texas will have took a huge hit in January, recovered somewhat in February and March, then took another hit this past April.

Dr. Dean Fantazzini, with his algorithm that calculates the final production numbers, also comes to the conclusion that Texas took a hit in April production. Dean has three results with the most probable in the middle.

Texas Crude only, in April, when the final data comes in, should be slightly above January but still well below December.

Dean’s corrected data shows Texas crude only declining in January, recovering in February and March, then declining again in April.

Condensate took a far greater hit in April than did crude only. This is likely because natural gas production in April took a bigger hit than did oil production.

This is Dean’s take on what Texas Condensate will be when the final data comes in. December appears to be the peak… so far.

There is no doubt that North Dakota, the USA’s second largest producer, is down since December. And I believe the data clearly shows that Texas, the USA’s largest crude oil producer by far, is down also. Then how is it possible that the EIA has US Production up so much since December?

In the chart above as well as the one below, the weekly production data are the averaged per month. The June weekly numbers are the average of the last two weeks reported data.

This is what the three different reporting departments say has happened to US C+C production since December 2014. I believe this will turn out to be the largest production error in the history of the agency.

It appears that Texas Natural Gas took a bigger hit than did oil. All natural gas data is in MCF.

This is Dean’s estimate of what the final Texas natural gas production will look like. The peak, so far, is in December, just like crude oil.

Texas gas well gas peaked way back in April of 2009. In April it was Texas gas well gas that took the biggest hit of all.

Texas associated gas did not take nearly the hit that gas well gas did. This is gas from oil wells. So it appears that even though oil production did take a hit in April, natural gas took an even bigger hit.

The North Dakota Director’s Cut is just out.

Mar Sweet Crude Price = $31.47/barrel

Apr Sweet Crude Price = $38.33/barrel

May Sweet Crude Price = $44.70/barrel

Today’s Sweet Crude Price = $48.00/barrel (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)

Mar rig count 108

Apr rig count 91

May rig count 83

Today’s rig count is 79 (lowest since December 2009)(all-time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)

The statewide rig count is down 64% from the high.

Comments:

The drilling rig count dropped 17 from March to April, 8 more from April to May, and has since fallen 4 more from May to today. Operators have each been experimenting with running 1 to 2 fewer rigs than their planned 2015 minimum to see if drill times and efficiencies will continue to improve. This has resulted in a current active drilling rig count that is 5 to 8 rigs below what was operators indicated would be their 2015 average if oil price remained below $65/barrel. The number of well completions dropped sharply from 244(final) in March to 94(preliminary) in April. Continued oil price weakness anticipated to last into next year is by far the primary reason for the slow-down. There was one significant precipitation event in the Dickinson area, 10 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work), and no days with temperatures below -10F.

At the end of April there were an estimated 925 wells waiting on completion services, an increase of 45. To maintain production near 1.2 million barrels per day, 110-120 completions must be made per month.

Drilling permit activity decreased slightly from March to April and significantly more from April to May as operators positioned themselves for low price 2015 budget scenarios.

Helms is saying that wells awaiting completion increased by 45. This makes no sense whatsoever. Wells completed in April totaled 153. Spuds were 129 in March and 94 in April. How on earth did “Wells Drilled” increase by 45 above “Wells Completed”?

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