Donald Trump leads Ted Cruz in the Republican race, 28 percent to 23 percent. | AP Photo Trump, Clinton carry slim leads into Iowa caucuses Final poll suggests Monday night nail-biter as Cruz and Sanders stay within reach of the win.

Both parties’ races in Monday’s Iowa caucuses are coming down to the wire, with Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton slightly ahead, according to the state’s most influential poll.

Trump, the brash real-estate tycoon who skipped the final debate in Iowa this week, has a 5-point lead in the Republican race over Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, according to the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is in third place at 15 percent, and retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson is at 10 percent. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul is at 5 percent, and no other candidate earns more than 3 percent.


In the Democratic race, Clinton is running neck-and-neck with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent – though Clinton’s support appears more secure. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley is at 3 percent and appears unlikely to be viable at most caucus sites on Monday night.

The poll, conducted by legendary Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer, has long been influential and accurate: Selzer’s surveys predicted victories by Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee in 2008, and foresaw Rick Santorum’s late surge in 2012.

The poll was conducted Jan. 26-29, surveying 602 likely Democratic and Republican caucus-goers; each party’s results carry a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Trump saw a modest rise over the previous poll, conducted nearly three weeks ago, which had Cruz leading Trump, 25 percent to 22 percent.

Trump leads the expansive field of GOP candidates despite nearly half of likely caucus-goers holding an unfavorable opinion of him, the poll shows. But his advantage is driven in part by first-time caucus-goers: Two-in-five respondents on the Republican side say they will be attending their first GOP caucus, and Trump leads Cruz among this group, 35 percent to 19 percent.

The Republican front-runner celebrated the poll at a campaign event in Eastern Iowa Saturday night.

"The numbers were so good for me, which I’m happy about," said Trump.

He especially celebrated his standing among evangelical Christians -- though he still trails Cruz among this group -- and credited the support of Liberty University president Jerry Falwell Jr. for helping him overtake the Texas senator in the state.

“Frankly, I think it was Jerry's incredible spirit and endorsement,” Trump said.

On the other side of the state, Cruz said the poll showed "it is effectively a two-man race" between him and Trump.

“I’m thrilled with where we are right now," Cruz said at a rally in Sioux City. "If you’d have told me a year ago that two days out from the Iowa caucuses, we’d be neck-and-neck, effectively tied for first place in the state of Iowa, I would have been thrilled."

Trump's decision to skip the final debate on Thursday night in Des Moines didn’t bother GOP caucus-goers, according to the poll. Selzer added a question after Trump said he planned to skip the debate and found little controversy: 24 percent said they approved of his decision, 29 percent disapproved, and nearly half, 46 percent, said they didn’t care.

There are some lines of attack against Trump that are effective, the poll shows. Majorities of GOP caucus-goers said they are bothered by Trump’s past pro-choice positions (54 percent) and support of eminent domain to strip landowners of their property (60 percent).

Cruz’s Iowa apostasies score lower: While 54 percent are bothered by the loans he secured from Goldman Sachs and Citibank for his 2012 Senate campaign, fewer caucus-goers said they are bothered by his past dual Canadian citizenship (22 percent) and opposition to the Renewable Fuel Standard (43 percent).

Outside of the top five GOP candidates, few can claim any momentum going into Monday night. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is at 3 percent, and a large glut of candidates – including the two previous caucus winners – is at 2 percent: former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. In fact, the candidate with the highest unfavorable rating in the poll is Bush, at 53 percent.

On the Democratic side, despite Clinton and Sanders running neck-and-neck, Clinton has the more secure lead. A larger percentage of Clinton supporters (83 percent) say their mind is made up than Sanders backers (69 percent). And among those who say they will definitely attend their precinct caucus on Monday night, Clinton leads, 47 percent to 41 percent.

Neither candidate enters the final days with any apparent momentum: In the previous poll, conducted Jan. 7-10, Clinton led Sanders by just 2 points, 42 percent to 40 percent.

Still, the Sanders campaign touted the survey in a statement Saturday evening.

“Our campaign has come a very long way in eight months,” said campaign manager Jeff Weaver. “In late May, according to the Register/Bloomberg poll, we were down by 41 points. Today we are virtually tied.”

Both major candidates remain popular, the poll shows: Clinton is viewed favorably by 81 percent of likely caucus-goers, and Sanders is viewed favorably by 82 percent.

Four-in-five Democrats said they agree with the statement “It is time for a woman president” – but 68 percent said it “would be OK to have a president who describes himself as a Democratic socialist.”

Contributions to this report from Ben Schreckinger in Davenport, Iowa; and Katie Glueck in Sioux City, Iowa.