Kamala Harris continues her streak of streakiness, this time dropping to sixth overall. Her 6% in this straw poll is her low-water mark. She was once at 27%. Buttigieg is solid and steady at 7%. He’s found his core level of support, and doesn’t appear to be in any danger of falling further … or rising. Andrew Yang has a great core of committed online supporters, ready and willing to spam any online poll. He’s come a lot further than he had any business doing so, and along with Buttigieg, proves that you don’t need Iowa to “discover” no-name candidates. Really, the excuses for Iowa to keep its first-in-the-nation status are all busted.

Joe Biden’s 11% shows that Daily Kos is not like the broader Democratic primary electorate, which is currently giving Biden 30-35% of the vote. Are we the bleeding edge, or are we outliers? Time will tell.

Given that support for other candidates is a mere 9-10%, it starts getting harder and harder to see where Warren might get new support. Certainly from that core of undecided and supporters of non-viable candidates. Warren’s Achilles heel is her thus-far inability to win significant black votes. Curiously, neither has Harris nor Cory Booker—that vote is still with Biden. Presumably, Warren can eat into that vote, but what seems more possible is for Harris to do so. So where else can Warren pick up votes?

Perhaps Bernie hasn't bottomed out, but we have to be approaching his core base of support, right? At some point, that left wing of the party will have to consolidate if they hope to win the nomination, but that day is at least six months away, so there's no real pressure to do so right now. Maybe Warren can chip a little more of that Bernie vote, but there’s likely not much more there to get.

This is all to say, I’m going to guess right now that Warren stabilizes at around 40% of the straw poll vote for a while, plus or minus a few points based on the whims of the campaign season. Maybe she’ll get to 45% as other candidates drop out. It’ll be fun to see.