



Life expectancy Life expectancy at birth is defined as the average number of years a newborn would live, if subjected throughout his/her life to current mortality conditions. Historically, life expectancy has risen, with increased longevity attributed to a range of factors including improved socioeconomic and environmental conditions, changes in working conditions/occupations, lifestyle changes or better medical treatment and care. It is, however, interesting to note a potential end to such developments as there was a reduction in EU-28 life expectancy at birth in both 2015 and 2017. Women tend to live longer than men. During the three-year period 2015-2017, life expectancy of a female newborn in the EU-28 was 83.5 years; this was 5.4 years higher than the corresponding figure for a male newborn. The gender gap for life expectancy at birth has gradually narrowed over time: information for the EU-28 aggregate is only available for a relatively short time series, with the gap between the sexes having stood at 6.3 years during the three-year period 2002-2004. Comunidad de Madrid had the highest female and male life expectancy in the EU Map 1 presents female life expectancy at birth for NUTS level 2 regions for the three-year period 2015-2017. It may be contrasted with Map 2 which provides similar information for male life expectancy; note that the same colour shades have been used for both maps to assist comparing the results. The five EU regions with the highest female life expectancy at birth were all located in Spain. During the period 2015-2017, the capital city region of Comunidad de Madrid recorded the highest female life expectancy, at 87.5 years, followed by Castilla y León and Comunidad Foral de Navarra (both recording at least 87.0 years). The first regions from outside Spain to appear in the ranking were both located in France, as female life expectancy at birth stood at 86.7 years in both the capital city region of Ile-de-France and the island region of Corse. At the other end of the range, female life expectancy at birth was lowest — during the period 2015-2017 — in the French outermost region of Mayotte, at 76.8 years (data refer to an average for 2015 and 2017); this was 10.7 years less than female life expectancy in the Comunidad de Madrid. Aside from Mayotte, the lowest levels of female life expectancy — no higher than 78.2 years — tended to be recorded in regions across Bulgaria (Severozapaden, Severen tsentralen, Yugoiztochen and Severoiztochen) Hungary (Észak-Magyarország) and Romania (Vest).

(years, by NUTS 2 regions)

Source: Eurostat Map 1: Female life expectancy at birth, 2015-2017(years, by NUTS 2 regions)Eurostat (demo_r_mlifexp) and (demo_mlexpec) Mirroring the results for female life expectancy at birth, the Comunidad de Madrid and Inner London — West had the highest male life expectancy, at 82.0 years during the period 2015-2017 (see Map 2). As such, a new born male child in Comunidad de Madrid could expect to live, on average, 5.5 years less than a new born female child from the Spanish capital city region. Apart from Comunidad de Madrid and Inner London — West, the regions with the highest male life expectancy at birth during the period 2015-2017 were located in either Italy or the United Kingdom. At the other end of the range, the lowest male life expectancy at birth was recorded in central and western Lithuania (Vidurio ir vakarų Lietuvos regionas), at 69.7 years; this was 12.3 years less than the highest level recorded in the Comunidad de Madrid and Inner London — West. Male life expectancy was also relatively low in a number of regions located in the Baltic Member States, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania.

(years, by NUTS 2 regions)

Source: Eurostat Map 2: Male life expectancy at birth, 2015-2017(years, by NUTS 2 regions)Eurostat (demo_r_mlifexp) and (demo_mlexpec) The largest gender gaps for life expectancy were recorded in Lithuania A comparison between Map 1 and Map 2 allows an analysis of gender gaps for life expectancy at birth. As noted above, women tend to live longer than men: 5.4 years across the whole of the EU-28 during the period 2015-2017. At a regional level, the gender gap for life expectancy at birth was consistently in favour of women for each of the NUTS level 2 regions in the EU and this pattern was also repeated across the statistical regions of EFTA and candidate countries. The largest gender gaps for life expectancy at birth were recorded in the two Lithuanian regions, where women could expect to live in excess of 10 years more than their male counterparts. These were the only two regions in the EU to record double-digit differences between the sexes: Sostinės regionas (with a gap of 10.1 years);

Vidurio ir vakarų Lietuvos regionas (10.3 years). Gender gaps for life expectancy were also relatively large — more than 7.5 years in favour of women — in the remainder of the Baltic Member States (Estonia and Latvia are single regions at this level of detail), all but 3 of the 17 regions in Poland, the two easternmost regions of Romania (Nord-Est and Sud-Est) and the French island region of Guadeloupe. While there were no regions in the EU where men could expect to outlive women, the gender gap for life expectancy at birth was as narrow as 1.1 years in the French outermost region of Mayotte (data refer to an average for 2015 and 2017); this was due, at least in part, to Mayotte recording the lowest level of female life expectancy in the EU. Women also outlived men by a relatively narrow margin during the period 2015-2017 in: the central Dutch region of Flevoland (2.8 years difference between the sexes);

five additional regions of the Netherlands — Utrecht, Overijssel, Gelderland, Noord-Holland and Zuid-Holland — as well as three region in the United Kingdom — Bedfordshire and Hertfordshire, Cheshire, and Essex — where the gender gap was within the range of 3.0-3.2 years.

Fertility A replacement level of 2.1 children per woman is often cited as the level of fertility required for the total population to remain unchanged within developed world economies, with births and deaths balancing out (ignoring the potential impact of migration). In 2017, the EU-28’s total fertility rate was lower, at an average of 1.59 children per woman. There were 5.07 million live births in the EU-28 in 2017, compared with 5.27 million deaths, resulting in a natural population decline of around 0.2 million persons. Although a lengthy time series is unavailable for the EU-28 aggregate to demonstrate the decline in fertility rates over the last 50 years, there are quite lengthy series for some of the individual EU Member States. One of the starkest examples is provided by Ireland, where the total fertility rate fell from a high of 3.77 children per woman in 1968 to 1.77 children per woman by 2017. In 2017, the total fertility rate was below the replacement level in all of the EU Member States, contributing towards a gradual ageing of the population. This may reflect, at least in part, a growing proportion of women choosing to delay/postpone childbirth, with higher female participation rates in further education and/or more women choosing to establish a professional career before they decide whether or not to start a family. The only EU Member States to report more than one region with a fertility rate of at least 2.1 children per woman were France, Romania and the United Kingdom Regional demographic statistics are one of the few areas where NUTS level 3 data are collected and published for each of the EU Member States, EFTA and candidate countries. Map 3 presents the total fertility rate for NUTS level 3 regions and provides information on the mean number of children who would be born to a woman during her lifetime, if she were to spend her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates that have been measured in a given year. In 2017, there were 20 NUTS level 3 regions in the EU which recorded a total fertility rate of at least 2.10 children per woman (as shown by the darkest shade in Map 3). Many of these regions were characterised as (sub)urban areas and they included: seven regions from the United Kingdom;

six regions from France, including the outermost region of Mayotte (4.87 children per woman) which had the highest fertility rate in the EU;

five regions from Romania, including the eastern city of Vaslui (2.61 children per woman) which had the highest fertility rate in mainland EU;

the Bulgarian region of Sliven;

the autonomous Spanish city of Melilla. At the other end of the range, the lowest fertility rates — less than 1.25 births per woman (as shown by the lightest shade in Map 3) — were principally, but not exclusively, located across southern parts of the EU, with particular clusters in mainland Greece, southern Italy, north-eastern Spain and northern Portugal. The relatively mountainous, central Greek region of Fokida had the lowest fertility rate among NUTS level 3 regions in the EU, at 0.81 children per woman.

(number of children per woman, by NUTS 3 regions)

Source: Eurostat Map 3: Total fertility rate, 2017(number of children per woman, by NUTS 3 regions)Eurostat (demo_r_find3) and (demo_find) Childbirth across the EU is increasingly delayed, in particular for women living in capital city regions Regions that are characterised by more traditional gender roles, the close proximity of family support, as well as relatively low educational attainment and socioeconomic status tend to be characterised by younger mothers. By contrast, women who delay childbirth are more likely to be living in relatively affluent regions, in possession of a tertiary level of educational attainment and career-orientated. In 2017, the median age of women at childbirth in the EU-28 was 31.1 years. There is only a limited time series available for the EU-28 aggregate, but even during the short period from 2013 to 2017, the median age of women at childbirth rose by 0.4 years. The median age of women at childbirth in 2017 was highest, among NUTS level 3 regions, in: the Greek capital city region of Voreios Tomeas Athinon (34.9 years);

the north-western Spanish region of A Coruña (34.7 years);

the northern Spanish/Basque region of Bizkaia, which includes the city of Bilbao (34.5 years). At the other end of the range, the median age of women at childbirth was lowest in: the neighbouring eastern Bulgarian regions of Sliven (24.5 years) and Yambol (26.2 years);

Călăraşi (Romania; 26.1 years). The pattern of women becoming progressively older before they have children is particularly evident in urban regions and was often most pronounced in capital city regions (see Map 4). A comparison among EU Member States composed of more than two NUTS level 3 regions reveals that the capital city region had the highest median age of women at childbirth in a majority of the Member States, with the highest values recorded for: Paris in France (33.2 years), Wandsworth which in the United Kingdom (33.7 years) and Voreios Tomeas Athinon in Greece (34.9 years). There were 22 NUTS level 3 regions across the EU where the median age of women at childbirth was less than 27.5 years in 2017 (as shown by the lightest shade in Map 4); they were exclusively located in just two of the EU Member States: 12 regions from Bulgaria, where the lowest median age (24.5 years) was recorded in the eastern region of Sliven;

10 regions from Romania, where the lowest median age (26.1 years) was recorded in the south-eastern region of Călăraşi. In 2017, births to women aged less than 20 years accounted for more than one quarter (26.1 %) of all births in the Bulgarian region of Sliven, which was almost three times as high as the national average (9.4 %) and 10 times as high as the EU-28 average (2.6 %). The next highest shares of births to women in this age group were recorded in the neighbouring Bulgarian region of Yambol, where more than one fifth (20.7 %) of all babies were born to women aged less than 20 years, and the Romanian region of Călăraşi (18.5 %).

(years, by NUTS 3 regions)

Source: Eurostat Map 4: Median age of women at childbirth, 2017(years, by NUTS 3 regions)Eurostat (demo_r_find3) and (demo_find)

Population structure The social and economic consequences associated with population ageing are likely to have profound implications both nationally and regionally, for example, impacting the capacity of governments to raise tax revenue, balance their own finances, or provide adequate pensions and healthcare services. Most population projections indicate that the EU’s population will continue to age as a result of persistently low fertility rates and extended longevity. During the most recent decade for which data are available, the median age of the EU-28 population rose by 2.7 years, reaching 43.1 years at the start of 2018. There were only three EU Member States where the median age of the population was below 40 years as of 1 January 2018: Ireland (37.3 years), Cyprus (37.5 years) and Luxembourg (39.4 years). By contrast, two Member States had particularly high median ages: Germany (46.0 years) and Italy (46.3 years). Map 5 shows the median age of NUTS level 3 regions at the start of 2018. The lowest median ages were recorded in: two outermost French regions, Mayotte (18.1 years) and Guyane (26.1 years);

five urban regions in the United Kingdom — Nottingham (29.9 years), Manchester (30.0 years), Tower Hamlets (eastern London; 31.2 years), Leicester (31.8 years) and Southampton (32.2 years) — each of which was characterised by relatively large student populations;

note also that there were 33 statistical regions in Turkey where the median age was at least as low (less than 32.2 years) with several largely rural, southern and eastern regions recording median ages that were close to 20.0 years. Capital cities often exert a considerable pull on both international and intra-regional migrants In recent decades, many of the EU Member States have been characterised by an increasing pattern of population concentration, as people have moved from rural, agricultural regions towards large cities (and their surrounding suburban areas). In approximately half of EU Member States composed of more than two NUTS level 3 regions, the lowest median age, at the start of 2018, was recorded in the capital city region, with the lowest values recorded in: Dublin in Ireland (36.0 years), Bruxelles-Capitale/Brussel-Hoofdstad in Belgium (35.8 years) and Byen København in Denmark (33.8 years). When the capital city region did not have the lowest median age, it was sometimes the case that it was recorded in a suburban region close to the capital city, for example, Dytiki Attiki (the western agglomeration of Athens). An alternative pattern observed in several EU Member States was for the region with the lowest median age to be recorded in a city region characterised by a sizeable student population, for example, Heidelberg Stadtkreis in Germany, Gdanski in Poland or Nottingham in the United Kingdom. By contrast, the NUTS level 3 regions with the highest median ages as of 1 January 2018 included: the central Greek region of Evrytania (55.0 years);

the north-western Belgian region of Arr. Veurne, near to the coast and the French border;

nine German regions spread across three eastern Länder — characterised by a lack of varied employment opportunities in the aftermath of reunification, which may have encouraged (particularly young) people to move in search of more varied and better paid work: Suhl, Kreisfreie Stadt; Altenburger Land; and Greiz (all in Thüringen); Mansfeld-Südharz; Dessau-Roßlau, Kreisfreie Stadt; and Wittenberg (all in Sachsen-Anhalt); Spree-Neiße; Prignitz; and Elbe-Elster (all in Brandenburg).

More generally, regions with ageing population structures were often characterised as: rural areas whose economies were centred on traditional activities — this pattern was particularly apparent in upland/mountainous areas of central France, Greece, north-western Spain, Portugal and the United Kingdom;

popular retirement destinations — for example, the Danish island of Bornholm, the Italian coastal regions of Savona, Genova (both Liguria) and Trieste (Friuli Venezia Giulia), or the Isle of Wight, Dorset CC and North and West Norfolk in the United Kingdom.

(years, by NUTS 3 regions)

Source: Eurostat Map 5: Median age of population, 2018(years, by NUTS 3 regions)Eurostat (demo_r_pjanind3) and (demo_pjanind) The highest old-age dependency ratios in the EU were often recorded in rural, sparsely-populated regions Figure 1 shows the old-age dependency ratio, defined here as the number of elderly people (aged 65 years and over) compared with the number of working-age (aged 15-64 years) people. On 1 January 2018, this ratio stood at 30.5 % across the whole of the EU-28; in other words, there were just over three people of working-age for every elderly person. Some of the lowest old-age dependency ratios for NUTS level 3 regions were recorded in capital city and outermost regions of the EU, including: the French outermost regions of Mayotte and Guyane — the former of which had the lowest old-age dependency ratio in the EU (5.0 %); and six boroughs from London — one of which, Tower Hamlets, had the second lowest ratio in the EU (8.3 %) — and the centre of Manchester (all in the United Kingdom). The central Greek region of Evrytania had, by far, the highest old-age dependency ratio among NUTS level 3 regions, at 67.0 %; in other words, for every two elderly persons there were just three people of working-age.

(%, highest and lowest ratios, by NUTS 3 regions)

Source: Eurostat Figure 1: Old-age dependency ratios, 2018(%, highest and lowest ratios, by NUTS 3 regions)Eurostat (demo_r_pjanind3) and (demo_pjanind)

Population change Historically, population growth in the EU has been largely driven by natural population change (the total number of births minus the total number of deaths), with a relatively minor role being played by migratory patterns. However, following the end of the post-war baby-boom, the rate of natural population growth started to slow from the 1970s onwards. This was followed in the 1990s by a quickening pace to political and economic union, as successive enlargements of the EU took place alongside the development of the European single market, with an increase in the relative importance of net migration (the difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants). However, Eurostat produces net migration figures by taking the difference between total population change and natural change; this concept is referred to as net migration plus (statistical) adjustment. Map 6 presents the crude rate of total population change for 2017 and is composed of two different effects: natural population change and net migration plus adjustment. Between 1 January 2017 and 1 January 2018, the EU-28’s population rose by 1.0 million inhabitants, equivalent to a growth rate of 2.0 per 1 000 inhabitants; note, these figures are shown relative to the ‘usual resident population’ (those people living in each region for at least the last 12 months). The increase in the total population of the EU-28 was wholly attributable to net migration plus adjustment (up 1.2 million persons), as the number of deaths outpaced the number of births (by around 0.2 million persons). At a regional level, changes in the total number of inhabitants may result not just from migratory flows to and from other countries but also from flows of people within the same national territory (moving from one region to another). Indeed, such intra-regional migration generally accounts for a larger share of the net change in population numbers than migratory flows from other countries. Some of the main developments include: a capital city effect — populations continue to expand in and around many capital cities which exert a ‘pull effect’ on national and international migrants associated with (perceived) education and/or employment opportunities;

an urban-rural split — with the majority of urban regions continuing to report population growth, while the number of persons resident in many peripheral, rural and post-industrial regions decline;

regional divergences within individual EU Member States — these may impact on regional competitiveness and cohesion, for example, differences between the eastern and the western regions of Germany, or between northern and southern regions of Belgium, Italy and the United Kingdom. Most EU regions with rapidly expanding populations were characterised by high levels of net migration plus adjustment, rather than rapid natural population change During 2017, a majority (765) of NUTS level 3 regions reported an increase in their overall number of inhabitants, while there were eight that had no change in their population. The darkest shade of blue in Map 6 shows those regions with a crude rate of total population growth that was at least 12.0 per 1 000 inhabitants in 2017. Among these the highest growth rates were recorded in: the eastern Aegean island regions of Ikaria, Samos (60.1 per 1 000 inhabitants) and Chios; the French outermost regions of Mayotte and Guyane; the southern Mediterranean island of Malta; and Fuerteventura in the Canary islands (Spain). At the other end of the range, there were 16 NUTS level 3 regions where the population declined by more than 20.0 per 1 000 inhabitants in 2017, they were located exclusively in eastern Europe and the Baltic Member States, with the biggest reduction in the easternmost Croatian region of Vukovarsko-srijemska županija (-42.0 per 1 000 inhabitants), while there were also sizeable contractions in a number of other Croatian regions and several regions across the Baltic Member States. Note there was an even greater reduction in the population of the north-eastern Turkish region of Bayburt (-114.2 per 1 000 inhabitants), as well as reductions in excess of 20.0 per 1 000 inhabitants in four Albanian regions — Gjirokastër, Dibër, Berat and Kukës.

(per 1 000 persons, by NUTS 3 regions)

Source: Eurostat Map 6: Crude rate of total population change, 2017(per 1 000 persons, by NUTS 3 regions)Eurostat (demo_r_gind3) and (demo_gind) Figure 2 provides a more detailed regional analysis for those regions with the highest and lowest rates of three measures of population change: overall population change (as shown in Map 6); natural population change; and net migration plus adjustment.

(per 1 000 persons, highest and lowest rates, by NUTS 3 regions)

Source: Eurostat Figure 2: Crude rates of population change, 2017(per 1 000 persons, highest and lowest rates, by NUTS 3 regions)Eurostat (demo_r_gind3) and (demo_gind)

Source data for figures and maps Population at regional level

Data sources Eurostat collects a wide range of regional demographic statistics: these include data on population numbers and various demographic events which influence the population’s size, structure and specific characteristics. Regional demographic statistics may be used for a wide range of planning, monitoring and evaluating actions, for example, to: analyse population ageing and its effects on sustainability and welfare;

evaluate the economic impact of demographic change;

calculate per inhabitant ratios and indicators — such as regional GDP per capita, which may be used, for example, to allocate structural funds to economically less advantaged regions.