There were a lot of questions when the Panthers drafted defensive tackle Vernon Butler Jr. in the 2016 draft to back up starters Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short – and even more three years later when he had zero starts and only two sacks in his first 38 games. When the team declined to pick up his fifth-year option and signed standout veteran Gerald McCoy to play at the same position – now 3-4 defensive end – some wondered if Butler would even make the roster in his fourth year.

Butler made the team of course and after being forced to play due to Kawann Short and Dontari Poe both being on injured reserve, Butler was thrust into the starting lineup, and so far he’s excelled, posting career numbers with five sacks and 25 total tackles. And with the late-bloomer finally having a breakout season, it’s worth considering keeping him around for the long run. It’s not an easy call, though.

The Market

There are few players in Butler’s unique position to compare him to, as a fourth-year first-round pick finally breaking out at a new position in a new scheme. But a glance around the NFL gives us a list of players that his agents will likely use as comparisons, such as Green Bay’s Dean Lowry or Tampa Bay’s William Gholston.

Gholston, who is three years older than Butler, was picked in the fourth round of the 2013 draft by the Buccaneers. Out of 100 games he has started 55 of them, according to Pro Football Reference. In march of 2017 he signed a five year, $27.5 million contract to remain with the team, and at that point he had accumulated 188 total tackles, 29 for a loss, 10 sacks and two forced fumbles. In the 42 games since signing his contract, he’s posted 75 total tackles and two sacks. His contract makes him the 18th highest paid 3-4 defensive end, according to Over the Cap.

Lowry, who was selected in the fourth round of the 2016 draft, is a fifth-year player who signed a three year $20.3 million contract earlier in July, making him the 16th highest paid 3-4 defensive end. Lowry has started 41 of 61 career games and like Butler he has caught fire as of late. When he signed his contract extension in July, he had posted 84 total tackles, 13 for a loss, seven sacks and three fumble recoveries. In his career, Lowry has accumulated 124 total tackles, 15 for a loss, seven sacks and two fumble recoveries.

For comparison, throughout the first four years of his career, Butler has accumulated 70 total tackles, nine tackles for a loss and three forced fumbles.

The future

The Panthers are going to have a tough time re-signing Butler, especially without overpaying him. And with general manager Marty Hurney under the microscope at the end of his second losing season in a row and with his history of overpaying his players, it’s hard to see the team giving Butler a contract that he would be happy with.

The most likely scenario is Butler is offered a one-year prove it deal and given a chance to start for an entire season in the place of Gerald McCoy, who is a free agent next year – similar to how the team treated offensive lineman Daryl Williams last offseason.

However, if he becomes a free agent it’s not out of the question for another team to make Butler a top-15 paid 3-4 defensive end, based off of his flash of potential in 2019 and the market that has already been set for the position.