In the wake of the Islamic State’s takeover of parts of northern Iraq and Syria, several foreign policy hawks have blamed the Obama administration for failing to intervene in Syria’s civil war. They claim that had the U.S. provided more arms to the Syrian rebels or directly intervened on their behalf, Syria’s “moderate” opposition would have long triumphed over both the government and religious extremists. Since the Syrian conflict began in 2011, much has changed: The rebels’ Supreme Military Council and its political analog have virtually imploded even as transnational extremists increasingly flood the area. At the same time, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has gained more ground. Almost as if these developments are irrelevant, the policy prescriptions of foreign policy hawks have remained astonishingly the same: The U.S. should provide better arms for the rebels or directly intervene on their behalf. These critics argue that facing a more capable opposition with more credible foreign backing, the Syrian government will simply capitulate to the demands of Western powers and their regional allies. Meanwhile, better-armed “good” rebels will make inroads against groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State — and the Syrian people will embrace and entrust them to guide the country through a transition. Many of these voices, including Sen. John McCain, Sen. Marco Rubio, Republican foreign policy adviser Elliott Abrams and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, were also architects or champions of the U.S. invasions of Iraq and Libya — neither of which worked out as projected. Given the recent track record of foreign policy miscalculations, it is unclear why anyone would listen to them now.

Dubious projections

Legacy of U.S. intervention

Ultimately, the real problem the rebels face is a lack not of resources, but of local support. Despite an overwhelming desire for substantial political reform, most Syrians simply do not agree with the armed insurrection. Moreover, most do not trust the United States, its allies and its proxies. This has been a major source of the rebels’ legitimacy crisis throughout, and it would not simply be erased by successes on the battlefield. In fact, the public may grow more apprehensive as American proxies gain strength given the history of previous U.S. interventions in Syria.

In order to chart a better path forward, the U.S. government and its allies should comply with the 2012 Geneva communique and negotiate directly with the Syrian government, and in good faith, to bring an end to the war.