This is an updated version of our previous simulation that ran on Aug. 19.



After taking care of the Pittsburgh Pirates with a three-game sweep, the Cubs’ record is 85-47 entering their four-game series with the San Francisco Giants. And with the St. Louis Cardinals’ loss Wednesday night, the Cubs’ division lead sits at a whopping 15 games after wrapping up August with a 22-6 record. Their magic number to clinch the division is 16.



At this point there’s no doubt the Cubs will win the NL Central — FanGraphs still says it is 100 percent likely, and FiveThirtyEight basically agrees.



With only 30 games left, the Cubs can go .500 down the stretch and still reach 100 wins, the first time that’s happened since 1935. Now 12-3 against the Pirates, the Cubs will see them one more time in the second-to-last series of the season in Pittsburgh before finishing the season in Cincinnati. But as you’ll see below, that series...