The NFL’s compensatory draft pick formula is a closely guarded secret by the league, but some have been able to crack the code based on history of the awarded picks. Over The Cap, which does an outstanding job in reporting on individual player contracts and each team’s salary cap, has managed to correctly predict several comp picks through the years. With the deadline having passed for free agents signed to no longer affect the comp pick formula, Over The Cap has finally shared their projections and they have the Chicago Bears in line for a 2020 fourth-round selection.

You can read their basics and methodology for figuring comps out here (and I recommend you do), but the quick and dirty version is players signed away from each team are weighed against players signed by each team, to determine if a team is deemed worthy of receiving a bonus draft pick. But believe me, it’s much more complicated than I wrote, so click the link for their version.

With all the Bears’ free agency decisions this offseason being factored in, it’s losing safety Adrian Amos to the Green Bay Packers on a contract worth $8,500,000 per year that gives them that likely 4th-rounder.

But the Bears also lost Bryce Callahan to the Denver Broncos on a big contract ($7M a year), so why don’t they get another comp pick for that?

Because his deal is “cancelled out” by the free agent pick-ups the Bears made.

Besides Callahan, the Bears also lost Josh Bellamy ($2.5M), Kevin White ($1.5M), and Eric Kush ($1.25M), but they added free agents Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix ($3M), Cordarrelle Patterson ($5M), Mike Davis ($2.975M), and Buster Skrine ($5.5M).

If the Bears do get a comp pick in 2020, it’ll snap a ten year streak of not getting one awarded to them. Also, if the comp pick is a fourth-rounder, that could essentially take the place of the fourth-round pick that Ryan Pace used to trade up for David Montgomery.

You can check out all their projections by clicking here, but they have the Patriots and Seahawks down with four comp picks each, and the Vikings, Ravens, and Texans to each have three.