THE cover of Texas Monthly shows Greg Abbott sitting in a wheelchair, holding a shotgun. A Republican running for governor of Texas, his passion for firearms is hardly unusual. When he vows to defend the Second Amendment, that is about as brave as saying he won’t ban motherhood.

Nonetheless, Mr Abbott is rather unusual, and rather brave. Since a falling tree paralysed him when he was 26, he has overcome both physical pain (for example, when bone fragments pierced his spinal cord) and daunting obstacles. The accident spurred him to outstrive his peers, first as a lawyer, next as a judge and then, since 2002, as his state’s attorney-general.

His highly visible disability (unlike Franklin Roosevelt, he makes no effort to disguise it) is probably an electoral asset. Voters can see how hard he works: at one public event he moved his wheelchair back and forth, by hand, 1,600 times. Having dealt with “a life-altering physical challenge”, he says, helps him empathise with the challenges that all Texans face, whether physical, financial or emotional.

Davis, with a chance Mr Abbott wants to help Texans rise above their difficulties, as he has—a line that fits with the Lone Star state’s bootstrapping ethos. And he is the one candidate who can crack jokes about disability, lightening the mood on the stump. “Some politicians talk about having a steel spine,” he tells supporters; “I actually have one.” Rick Perry, the governor of Texas since 2000 (when George Bush junior quit to become president), will not run for re-election next year. Mr Abbott is the favourite to succeed him. His main opponent in the Republican primary, Tom Pauken, a former chairman of the Texas Republican Party, has raised less than $250,000 to Mr Abbott’s $22m. However, Mr Abbott could face a tough opponent in the general election. Wendy Davis, a state senator, was expected to announce her candidacy as The Economist went to press. Nationally, Ms Davis is much better known than Mr Abbott. In June she donned pink sneakers and staged an 11-hour filibuster of an anti-abortion bill. She won only a brief victory, but became an instant star among progressives. No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994—longer than in any other state. Texas has not backed a Democrat for the White House since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Democrats are desperate to change this. As the Texan population becomes less Anglo and more Hispanic, they think they have a chance. And in Ms Davis, they think they have a champion: one, moreover, whose struggle to keep abortion more widely available in Texas fits the Democratic narrative that Republicans are waging a “war on women”.

The party “need[s] a face”, says Harold Cook, a Democratic strategist, and Ms Davis is “incredibly charismatic”. With her “national celebrity” she can raise the $40m or so she will need to compete, Mr Cook predicts. He thinks she will appeal to suburban women who have long voted Republican for lack of a credible alternative; and some polls agree. Looking further ahead, some Democrats argue that if they can make Texas competitive, it will have national repercussions. “If we win Texas, it’ll be no contest for the White House,” says Andy Brown, a Democrat running for local office in Travis County, which includes the city of Austin. Yet the smart money still says Ms Davis will lose, unless an independent Tea Party candidate enters the race, in which case all bets are off.

Texan voters are conservative, and Mr Abbott knows how to stroke them. As attorney-general, he has sued the federal government 30 times, largely to keep the Environmental Protection Agency, which he accuses of overreaching, at bay. “I go into the office, I sue the federal government and I go home,” he tells voters.

He also offers continuity in a state that has prospered under Mr Perry. Texas has created far more jobs than any other state, and attracted hordes of newcomers. The population grew by 21% between 2000 and 2010, as jobseekers poured in not only from Mexico but also from the rest of America. Population growth has strained the state’s schools and roads, but plenty of people still vote for Texas with their feet. Mr Abbott praises the Texan model of less government, low taxes and a predictable business environment, and accuses Ms Davis of wanting to foist the “Detroit model” on the state.

Republicans dispute the idea that, as Texas becomes more Hispanic, it will turn Democratic. As Hispanics get richer, their attitude to government may evolve, suggests Mr Perry. Imagine, he says, a young Latino who five years ago had a minimum-wage job but is now making $100,000 a year driving a truck: “He wants to know who the hell this Mr FICA is that’s taking [so much] of his pay cheque.” (FICA being a federal payroll tax.)

Republicans insist that Hispanics are patriotic, family-oriented and enterprising, and therefore natural Republicans. Maybe so, but the national Republican Party’s loud anti-immigration wing could hurt Texan Republicans, even candidates who are personally pro-immigrant. Mr Abbott stresses that he has been married to a Latina for 32 years. “I understand diversity in this state,” he says.

The Democrats’ best hope, says one Democratic consultant, is that Mr Abbott will say something stupid or offensive. The trouble is, he has so far shown few signs of indiscipline. And the usual approach of having a party operative hassle the candidate with a camera until he slips up is problematic when the candidate is Mr Abbott. Democrats do not want to appear to be bullying a guy in a wheelchair.