With a UK general election expected to be weeks away, local parties are bracing themselves for another round of elections, on what would be the eighth occasion that Northern Ireland has gone to the polls since 2015. Given that the Conservative government relies upon the DUP’s 10 MPs for their wafer-thin majority, the battle for Westminster in Northern Ireland is likely to receive more attention in Great Britain than historically has been the case.

The big story of recent elections has been the rise of the “neithers” – parties who do not designate as either unionist or nationalist; in particular the Alliance Party which made a number of gains at this year’s local elections and saw party leader Naomi Long elected to the European Parliament.

The chart at the top of the page shows how the main parties have fared in elections since the 2015 general election, and voting intention figures from a recent Lucid Talk poll.

The poll is striking in that it shows that for the Alliance Party, rather than the European elections being a one-off result owing to the widespread popularity of their party leader, that their support at an upcoming general election may even exceed their European performance.

If this poll is an accurate gauge of public opinion in Northern Ireland, then it could be a forewarning of a radical redrawing of Northern Ireland’s electoral map, which could see the DUP being challenged seriously in their heartland seats for the first time since they overthrew the UUP to become the largest unionist party.

To see why, consider the table below, which shows an estimate for first preference votes cast at this year’s local elections in each constituency. Overall, across Northern Ireland, the DUP obtained 24.1% of first preference votes, whilst Alliance polled 11.5%.

Even when Alliance Party support was only at 11.5% across Northern Ireland, they were essentially tied with the DUP for the largest party in terms of electoral support in both East and South Belfast, and only 3% behind the DUP in North Down, where independent unionist Lady Sylvia Hermon is the incumbent MP.

However, if the Lucid Talk poll is accurate, this suggests that Alliance support has virtually doubled since the local elections on the 2nd of May, and in fact that that their support has even ticked up since Naomi Long’s victory three weeks later.

The map below shows how Alliance support was distributed across Northern Ireland. Worryingly for the DUP, it is quite efficiently geographically clustered in and around the Belfast commuter belt. They perform poorly in areas west of the Bann where they have a zero chance of winning. The DUP, by comparison, frequently poll between 10% and 20% in areas such as Foyle where they have no chance whatsoever at Westminster.

If the Alliance Party can build upon their European election result, and the gap between them and the DUP remains in single figures, they could find themselves in competitive races with the DUP in East Antrim, South Antrim, Lagan Valley and Strangford, as well as in South and East Belfast. The DUP are also vulnerable to a challenge from Sinn Féin in North Belfast. Only the three DUP seats in East Londonderry, Upper Bann and North Antrim would be considered safe.

Given the DUP’s role in propping up the Conservative minority administration at Westminster, Alliance may also be the beneficiary of tactical votes from other party supporters who may be lured by the prospect of unseating DUP incumbents who may previously have been seen as untouchable.

That said, the DUP as it currently stands are favourites to win in all of the seats that they are defending outside Belfast. However, many of their MPs may be about to fight their first competitive election for quite some time.