It's Nitish Kumar the Narendra Modi-led BJP would have loved to take on with its full might in the assembly polls in Bihar later this year. After all, both Modi and the BJP have old scores to settle with the JD(U) supremo.

It's Nitish Kumar the Narendra Modi-led BJP would have loved to take on with its full might in the assembly polls in Bihar later this year. After all, both Modi and the BJP have old scores to settle with the JD(U) supremo - for the former the issue is personal while for the latter it is political. However, as the party begins to make its moves in Bihar, it might find Nitish no more a challenge. The political stature of Nitish Kumar, once among the most powerful political leaders in the state, has shrunk. It could end up fighting its other bitter foe, Lalu Prasad, who continues to hold his own despite many setbacks.

But the predicament of Nitish first. For someone who has been making one political blunder after the other, beginning with the snapping of ties with ruling coalition partner BJP nearly two years ago, things are going from bad to worse.

His protege Jitan Manjhi has now come out of his shadow and the chief minister of Bihar is a power centre on his own. JD(U) insiders say Nitish has initiated moves to dislodge the former twice already but has not proved successful. Manjhi has managed win over many party MLAs and in case of a crisis, he won't be averse to taking the help of the BJP too. Worse, Manjhi has started building his own Dalit support base while Nitish has no social grouping to fall back upon.

Nitish's move to bring the Janata family together as a single party to take on the BJP has failed to get off the ground too. While Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav does not consider it a priority at this point, RJD chief Lalu is keen on gaining the upper hand if the new party comes about. For the past over six months, Nitish has been making the rounds of Lalu’s residence in Delhi, urging him to expedite the merger process, but nothing much has come of it.



The irony of the situation is he has to hang on to the RJD chief, once his biggest rival till not long ago, for his political survival. Lalu himself is now reduced to a leader with barely 24 legislators and four MPs at his command and someone who cannot fight elections for a decade because of his conviction in the fodder scam. His charisma is on the wane and he also has health issues to worry about.

Why is he Nitish's last hope? “Unlike other leaders around, Lalu Prasad has never changed sides and he still carries a secular image. Secular-minded people and the Muslims trust him more than others. Also his Muslim-Yadav vote bank has remained intact unlike the support base of the JD(U) which saw a split after the split with the BJP. The upper castes went to the latter and the Muslims just didn't find him credible enough," opined expert Sachindra Narayan. The Kurmis don't account for much in terms of votes - they form less than five percent of the electorate.

The fact that Jitan Manjhi is getting closer to Lalu is a matter of worry for Nitish. Manjhi was the first to rush to Lalu's residence in Patna to have “dahi-chura” during the Makar Sankranti last week. That he preferred this to a similar celebration at the New Patna Club thrown up by his own party the same day tells the story of new equations in Bihar. There was a huge rush of visitors at Lalu’s residence with the ministers and legislators literally scrambling to show their faces before the maverick politician.

Observers say the RJD chief is very tactfully finishing Nitish by delaying the merger among the splinter groups of the old Janata family. The latter deferred his proposed “sampark rally” in Bihar which he was to kick-start from January 17 in the hope of the merger but Lalu delayed it citing preparations for the marriage of his youngest daughter Raj Laxmi. The marriage is to be solemnized on February 26 in New Delhi.

The desperation gripping Nitish became clear during the two-day training camp of the JD(U) leaders and workers when he asked them to be ready for polls regardless of merger. “The merger plan is underway but it may take some time as several issues have to be thrashed out. But we will continue to strengthen our cadres to take on the BJP,” Nitish asked party men at the training camp organized at his 7, Circular Road official residence opposite 1, Anne Marg, which is official residence of chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, his present successor.

The confusion in the Janata Parivar has certainly made the BJP happy which is looking for a big win in the assembly polls. But perhaps it will be fighting a rival other than Nitish.