RPOF beats Snipes — Where’s the blue wave, part 2 — Florida schools’ new abnormal — TV cash not cutting it Presented by Facebook

By Marc Caputo ([email protected]; @MarcACaputo) and Matt Dixon ([email protected]; @Mdixon55), with Emily Goldberg ([email protected]; @ejgold94) and the staff of POLITICO Florida

Good Monday morning. It’s not just the first week of school in some Florida counties. Today also marks the first day of in-person early voting in some counties (check your local supervisor’s site). As of Friday, about 571,000 absentee vote-by-mail ballots had been cast, 47 percent by Republicans and 39 percent by Democrats. Will that 8-point gap narrow with in-person early voting? It has in the past.

WHERE’S THE BLUE WAVE? — Last week we wondered “where’s the blue wave?” when Democratic absentee ballot returns weren’t as proportionately high as they were at this time of the election in 2014, the last midterm. Today, we begin to wonder even more now that the state has released the final numbers of registered voters for the August 28 primaries. The numbers show that, as a share of the electorate, Democratic Party registrations have fallen about 2 percentage points since the 2016 election (to roughly 37 percent). Registered Republicans have held steady at 35 percent. And no-party-affiliation voters have increased about 3 points. True, Democrats have won four contested bellwethers this cycle in Florida. But so far, there’s not a crush of people rushing to become Democrats. The big X-factor: independent voters.

WHITE WALL? — After Hurricane Maria last year, Democrats hoped the sizable influx of Puerto Ricans who evacuated the island would help change the demographics of the Florida voter rolls, and therefore the 2018 elections and beyond. But so far, it hasn’t appeared to happen. Looking at Hispanics overall (the voter file doesn’t list island/nation of origin), the total numbers of Hispanic voters has increased by less than a point since 2016, and Hispanics remain 16 percent of the voter rolls. Meanwhile, whites remain a majority of voters in the state at 64 percent, a number that’s essentially unchanged since 2016. (Where are they coming from? Think pickle ball.) Whites are proportionately leaving the Democratic Party. In 2016, the Democratic Party for the first time became majority nonwhite (51 percent). Now it’s 52 percent nonwhite. The Republican Party is disproportionately white, 83 percent.

ANOTHER SNIPES LOSS — “Judge sides with Florida GOP in absentee ballot dispute with Broward County,” by POLITICO Florida’s Marc Caputo: The declaratory injunction, ordered Friday, prevents Broward County Election Supervisor Brenda Snipes from opening the mail-in ballots in secret or before the county’s three-member Canvassing Board meets to determine the ballots’ validity. The board can begin meeting on Monday to handle absentee ballots, more than 75,000 of which have been cast in Broward ahead of the Aug. 28 primaries. ... The ruling is the second major loss for Snipes’ office in court this year. In May, a judge criticized her office for breaking the law by destroying ballots too soon in the 2016 congressional primary between Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Tim Canova. Snipes earlier won a federal case concerning voter-roll maintenance. Broward has nearly 1.15 million voters, second only to Miami-Dade’s voter population of nearly 1.4 million.” Read more

SAY WHAT? — One striking part of the ruling stands out: The judge’s apparent and justifiable amazement with the claim from Snipes’ lawyer that the supervisor doesn’t know the definition of “canvass.” Judge Raag Singhal made sure to mention it more than once: “Defendant maintains that she is without knowledge of Plaintiff's definition of the words ‘canvass’ as it appears in sections 101.68 and 102.141 Florida Statutes ... Defendant has failed to rebut Plaintiff's entitlement to relief and has even admitted to misunderstanding the meaning of the word 'canvass' as set out in sections 101.68 and 102.141, Florida Statutes."

LET THIS SINK IN: SNIPES IS ON THE FRIGGIN’ CANVASSING BOARD, AND SHE DOESN’T KNOW WHAT ‘CANVASS’ MEANS?



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... THE TRAIL ...

MONEY LOSERS — “With million in TV ads, top spenders are not top performers in Florida governor’s race,” by Naples Daily News’ Ana Ceballos: “A wave of campaign cash has flooded Florida airwaves, shattering state spending records for the primary election and revealing an notable trend: The biggest spenders in the governor’s race are not on top. “The relationship used to be simple: The most money spent by the sane candidate wins. Now both sides have seriate ideological media silos,” said Rick Wilson, a veteran GOP ad man.” Read more.

AD WARS — “Rick Scott rules Florida’ airwaves, but Bill Nelson is about to respond,” by USA Today Network’s Ledyard King: “After months of being overpowered of the Florida airwaves by Republican Gov. Rick Scott, Sen. Bill Nelson is about to start pushing back. The Florida Democrat and his political allies have reserved about $42 million in broadcast, cable and satellite television ad buys in the state’s 10 markets from August through Election Day – more than twice the $17.4 million Nelson’s side spent on TV spots prior to August.” Read more.

HACKING WAR — “Rick Scott demands Bill Nelson provide proof of Russian election meddling,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Steve Bousquet and Alex Leary: Read more

COUNTERPUNCH — “Ad wars: Rick Scott rules Florida's airwaves, but Bill Nelson is about to respond,” by USA Today’s Ledyard King: “After months of being overpowered on the Florida airwaves by Republican Gov. Rick Scott, Sen. Bill Nelson is about to start punching back. The Florida Democrat and his political allies have reserved about $42 million in broadcast, cable and satellite television ad buys in the state's 10 markets from August through Election Day – more than twice the $17.4 million Nelson's side spent on TV spots prior to August. Nelson's first ad from his own campaign is slated to air later this month in a race where polls show an even contest and most analysts rate it as a tossup.” Read more

FIRST LADY FUNDRAISER — Remember when Gov. Rick Scott accused Sen. Bill Nelson was unfairly attacking his wife concerning a loan controversy? Well, Florida’s First Lady, in addition to providing her husband’s campaigns with millions of dollars from her own accounts, is having a fundraiser for her husband Wednesday Aug. 22 in Fort Lauderdale.

BORICUA BAROMETER — “Florida candidates wading into Puerto Rico politics. Will it matter to voters from the island?” by Orlando Sentinel’s Bianca Padró Ocasio: “After months of making heavily publicized trips — in some cases, a handful of trips — to the island and Central Florida, candidates on the state ballot this November have started to take solid positions on the controversial question of status for the island, showcased their efforts to help Puerto Rico recover, and secured endorsements from both former and current Puerto Rican officials. ‘Puerto Rico is our backyard. … Once you live in Orlando and you’re Puerto Rican, you have that back and forth connection,’ said Adela López, director of the nonpartisan advocacy group Misión Boricua. ‘Even though you’re away, you still have a responsibility for the island.’” Read more

THE STUPID. IT BURNS — “Donations sent to Puerto Rico were found rotting in parking lot,” by CBS News: Read more

JUST LIKE RUBIO – “Ron DeSantis wants to lead Florida through hurricanes. He voted against helping Sandy victims,” by the Tampa Bay Times’ Steve Contorno: “One of Rep. Ron DeSantis' first votes in Congress was also one of his most controversial. The day after he was sworn into office, Jan. 4, 2013, DeSantis voted against a $9.7 billion relief package for the New York and New Jersey victims of Hurricane Sandy. ‘This ‘put it on the credit card mentality’ is part of the reason we find ourselves nearly $17 trillion in debt,’ DeSantis said, explaining his vote.” Read more

OOPS – “EXCLUSIVE: House Candidate Melissa Howard Faked Her Diploma, University Alleges,” by FLA News Oline’s David Bishop: “After FLA News exclusively reported Tuesday that Republican State House candidate Melissa Howard didn’t have the college degree from Miami University in Ohio that she claimed to have earned, Mrs. Howard flew to Ohio Friday to prove our report wrong. She posted a picture of a partial college transcript on her Facebook page and then later that day posted a picture of her sitting with her mother and holding a copy of a diploma. FLA News took her word and, despite evidence to the contrary, rescinded our story.” Read more

— “Republicans call on Melissa Howard to quit race amid degree scandal,” by Herald-Tribune's Zac Anderson: Read more



FIGHTING WORDS — “Greene plays the instigator as Florida’s Democratic primary for governor gets ugly,” by Miami Herald’s David Smiley: Read more

MARGARITAVILLE – Singer Jimmy Buffet, a longtime environmental activist, is endorsing Democrat Gwen Graham in her party’s five-way gubernatorial primary. “Like her Dad, Gwen will put the interests of everyday Floridians first. She has a heart for people and a passion for the Sunshine state.

‘LATRINE LEVINE’ — “Biscayne Bay is a ‘latrine,’ Greene says. But the images he points to are from Russia,” by Miami Herald’s Martin Vassolo: Read more

HACKER TRICKS — “An 11—year—old changed the results of Florida's presidential vote at a hacker convention. Discuss,” by BuzzFeed News’ Kevin Collier: Read more

… TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP …

CLOSING IN? — “Judge finds Roger Stone associate in contempt for refusing to appear before grand jury,” by POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney: “A close associate of Roger Stone — the longtime confidant of President Donald Trump — has been held in contempt of court for refusing to appear before special counsel Robert Mueller’s grand jury, his attorney confirmed Friday. Andrew Miller’s attorney Paul Kamenar told reporters outside a federal courthouse in Washington that Miller — who lost a court fight to invalidate Mueller’s investigation — won’t face immediate punishment. The court, he said, agreed to stay penalties until after Miller appeals the ruling upholding the legitimacy of the Mueller investigation. Read more

— “A lifelong political scrapper, Roger Stone is fighting for his own legal future,” by The New York Times’ Alan Feuer: Read more

MAGA MARCO — “Rubio goes nationalist,” by Weekly Standard’s John McCormack: “In June 2016, Marco Rubio changed his mind and announced that he would not be retiring from the Senate as he had planned. A major reason he was seeking a second term, Rubio said, was to help the Senate exercise what ‘could end up being its most important [role] in the years to come: the constitutional power to act as a check and balance on the excesses of a president’—whether that would be President Clinton or President Trump.

“After rattling off his concerns about Hillary Clinton, Rubio said: ‘The prospect of a Trump presidency is also worrisome to me. It is no secret that I have significant disagreements with Donald Trump. His positions on many key issues are still unknown. And some of his statements, especially about women and minorities, I find not just offensive but unacceptable. If he is elected, we will need senators willing to encourage him in the right direction, and if necessary, stand up to him. I’ve proven a willingness to do both.’” Read more

PARTY OF TRUMP — “A GOP candidate denounced Trump’s comments about sexually assaulting women and insulting Gold Star parents. Now he’s paying for it,” by the Washington Post’s Aaron Blake: Read more

... THE SLIME ...

DUCK — “Gov. Rick Scott avoids public, media during St. Lucie River boat tour to see algae bloom,” by TC Palm’s Ali Schmitz: “During a visit to Stuart early Friday, Florida Gov. Rick Scott declined to meet with the public and the media about toxic blue-green algae blooms plaguing the St. Lucie River. Scott's staff initially cited security concerns, which they wouldn't explain, for his lack of availability and told reporters his office would answer questions only via email. A Scott spokesman later told TCPalm ‘timing’ prevented Scott from meeting from reporters. Scott had a scheduled campaign event for his bid for U.S. Senate two hours later across the state in Tampa.” Read more

Q&A — “Red Tide’s toxic toll — your questions answered,” by the Tampa Bay Times’ Craig Pittman: “A Red Tide algae bloom has been plaguing the Southwest Florida coast for months, and recently threatened to invade Tampa Bay (although the latest forecast shows it traveling southward again). Here are some questions and answers about the microscopic toxic threat to taking a fun trip to the beach.” Read more

SPECIAL REPORT — “A foul task - cleaning up Florida’s red tide corpses,” by the Palm Beach Post’s Kimberly Miller: “On the fine, shell-dappled beaches of Sanibel Island, the putrid corpses of all manner of sea life are scraped into piles by a rag-tag crew with metal-tined rakes. Matilda Meritt, a cigarette between her lips, rhinestone sunglasses, and a shirt that reads ‘wake me when the boring is over,’ is on the early shift, dropped off in one of two Greyhound buses every morning for a week since tons of deathwashed up on these shores.” Read more

RED TIDE PROTEST — “'Hands Along The Water' event takes aim at toxic green slime killing our fish,” by Sun Sentinel’s Susannah Bryan: Read more

DEATH MARCH — “Lake O Discharges Death March Thru Downtown Ft Myers,” News-Press video: Read more

BRING OUT YOUR DEAD — “A Foul Task: Who’s cleaning up Florida’s red tide corpses?” by Kimberly Miller for The Ledger: Read more

… THE GUNSHINE STATE …

STANDING HIS GROUND — “Sheriff finds himself at center of political stand your ground storm,” the Tampa Bay Times’ Kathryn Varn: “Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri has never been one to shy away from tough decisions. He’s also not known to back off from explaining them publicly. So his 30-minute and 55-minute news conferences to talk about why he didn’t arrest Michael Drejka in the shooting of Markeis McGlockton during an argument over a parking space have given the public — and the political types — much fodder for discussion. It has since morphed into a polarizing debate with reaction ranging from a President Donald Trump-backed gubernatorial candidate to The Rev. Al Sharpton.” Read more

THE NEW ABNORMAL — “Back-to-School Shopping for Districts: Armed Guards, Cameras and Metal Detectors,” New York Times’ Patricia Mazzei: “Fortified by fences and patrolled by more armed personnel, schools will open their doors to students for the start of the new year with a heightened focus on security intended to ease fears about deadly campus shootings. The massacre in Parkland, Fla., one of the most lethal in American history, unnerved school administrators across the country, who devoted the summer to reinforcing buildings and hiring security. In Florida, armed guards will be posted on almost every campus. In Indiana, some schools will be getting hand-held metal detectors. In Western New York, some schools plan to upgrade their surveillance cameras to include facial recognition. Six months after the rampage at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, public schools have embraced expensive and sometimes controversial safety measures.” Read more

MOM OF 3 KIDS, 2 AUTISTIC — “Family: Jacksonville McDonald’s drive-thru victim a devoted mother,” by Times-Union’s Teresa Stepzinski: Read more

… ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN …

FAMILY AFFAIR — “Ormond commission candidate found guilty of racketeering,” by Dayton Beach News Journal’s Frank Fernandez: “Ormond Beach City Commission candidate James Dale Holcombe won’t be on the ballot after a jury found him guilty Friday of racketeering in a cash-for-gift-cards scheme. Holcombe, 29, a candidate for the Zone 4 seat on the Ormond Beach City Commission, was also found guilty of conspiracy to commit racketeering. His father, Dale Chester Holcombe, 55, of South Daytona, was also found guilty of the same charges.” Read more

— “In South Florida, $2.1 million no longer makes you ‘wealthy.’ Here’s the new benchmark,” by Miami Herald’s Rob Wile: Read more

— “Seminole Casinos To Ditch Plastic Straws,” by CBS Miami: Read more

— “Florida woman crashes car into tree, jumps in river, takes off clothes,” by Brevard Times: Read more

— “The couple didn’t order a strip tease at the steakhouse. But they got one anyway,” by the Tampa Bay Times’ Jack Evans: Read more

— “Florida construction workers unearth prehistoric bone fragment, likely from mammoth,” by Fox News’ Madeline Farber: Read more

— “Union urges police to return their Miami Dolphins tickets after anthem protest,” by Miami Herald’s Monique O. Madan: Read more

— “Officer Accused Of Handcuffing Black Child Who Dribbled Ball In Gym,” by Huffington Post's David Lohr: R ad moreead more

— “He’s accused of dumping 10,000 gallons of used cooking oil. It wasn’t that, he says,” by Miami Herald's David J. Neal: Read more

— “Some Keys residents still struggling to rebuild 11 months after Irma wiped them out,” by Gwen Filosa in The Miami Herald: Read more

RICHY RICH — “In Belleair Shore, beach owners don’t even want sea turtles trespassing,” by the Tampa Bay Times’ Craig Pittman: “All over Florida, people are arguing over whether a new law blocks the public from walking across a private beach. Meanwhile, in the tiny but affluent Pinellas town of Belleair Shore, the question of beach access has sparked a somewhat different dispute. Instead of just humans, some Belleair Shore residents want to give sea turtles the boot too. Town Commission members are complaining about spotting marked sea turtles nests on their beachfront land — nests that they said had all been put there, without permission, by the Clearwater Marine Aquarium.” Read more

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