BUDAPEST — As Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares to make a rare trip to the European Union Thursday, his choice of destination — Hungary — reveals a shift in the Kremlin’s strategy in Europe following the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Putin has met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán several times since the Hungarian leader came to power in 2010. The Russian ruler last visited Budapest in early 2015 in what was his first visit to an EU country following the annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of fighting in eastern Ukraine.

But this year’s visit comes amidst a subtle change in the Kremlin’s perception of Hungary. Putin has come to see Orbán as a Euroskeptic leader who can play on the European stage and hopes that Hungary could formally push for the lifting of EU sanctions.

“Over the past two years, Orbán has increased in importance for the Russians," said András Deák, senior research fellow at Institute of World Economics at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. "During the migration crisis, he showed that he could raise his level in terms of EU politics, he became some sort of alternative to the EU liberal mainstream."

'First sanctions mover'

For the Kremlin, a public visit to Budapest at this time has both symbolic and political value. Putin wants to show the Russian public at home that Russia is a world power. Moreover, at a time when the Kremlin is hoping to cooperate closely with the new U.S. administration and improve relations with European partners, Moscow could also usefully show that Putin isn't a pariah.

“The era of multilateralism is at an end, and the era of bilateral relations is upon us” — Viktor Orbán

“Budapest is one of the few EU capitals where President Putin can feel at ease, meeting with someone who shares elements of his own worldview," said Dmitri Trenin, director of the Moscow Carnegie Center. "Such reception allows Moscow to claim that not all Europeans follow policies shunning Russia's leadership."

The formal agenda for Orbán’s meeting with the Russian president is wide-ranging and includes the Paks II nuclear power plant project that Hungary contracted Russia to build, to the consternation of proponents of EU energy independence from Moscow. But Putin and his entourage will be arriving in Hungary with one clear priority: to clarify and strengthen Orbán’s opposition to EU sanctions on Russia.

“There is a Russian hope that Orbán will step up against the sanctions, not just rhetorically," said Deák. "For the Russians, it is important to find a European country that will be the first mover on this."

Whether it will come to pass is another matter. “It’s a big question mark if Orbán would be willing to do this,” Deák said.

While Orbán has expressed his dislike of the sanctions imposed by the EU over Russia's involvement in the Ukrainian conflict, neither the Hungarians nor the other sanctions-skeptics, like Cyprus, Italy and Greece, have ever stepped up to block their renewal. Each time they've come up at the EU, the bloc kept them in place, with Germany leading the push and no one willing to break ranks and wield a veto.

Trump's election has raised hopes in Moscow that, faced with less pressure from Washington, some European countries will push harder to reduce sanctions on Russia. And if Trump ends up lifting some or all the U.S. sanctions, then it'd become increasingly difficult for the EU to stick together.

“Sanctions have been resulting in serious disadvantages not only for Russia but also for Hungary together with the whole European economy” — Gergely Gulyás, Hungarian MP

“We have repeatedly expressed our opposition, but did not impose a veto and did not want to shatter the unity of the EU," Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó told the Russian newspaper Kommersant in a January 24 interview. "We were not alone, there were several other countries. But when the day to make a decision came, we found ourselves all alone.”

The foreign minister expressed “hope” that sanctions would be lifted, arguing that much depends on the trajectory of U.S.-Russia relations.

Viktor and Vlad

Orbán has worked to boost ties with the Kremlin since coming to power in 2010. But the election of President Trump seems to be creating new opportunities for Hungary — and for Budapest’s relationship with Moscow.

The Hungarian prime minister has hailed Trump’s election, saying it heralds a new age where countries are free to put their interests first. “The era of multilateralism is at an end, and the era of bilateral relations is upon us,” he said in a January 23 speech.

The world, according to Orbán, is entering a “new paradigm” of “multiple centers of power.” For the prime minister, this new paradigm means that European countries are free to pursue their own paths when it comes to relations with Moscow. It is “unreasonable — and particularly unreasonable in Europe — to ignore the power and the opportunity that Russia represents,” he said.

Hungary’s neighbors, meanwhile, are watching Budapest’s friendly gestures and Russia’s moves in the region closely. Hungary’s eastern neighbor Ukraine, which has the most to lose from a rapprochement between the U.S. and Russia and the breakdown of the Western sanctions regime, is particularly concerned.

“We hope that bilateral dialogue between Hungary and Russia will not blind leaders of our neighboring friendly state Hungary from making sure that the aggressor against Ukraine is being kept responsible for its actions,” said Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration. “Values should not be traded for business and economic interests in these relationships,” she added.

Hungarian officials say Ukraine’s security predicament isn't the only consideration.

The annexation of Crimea was “undoubtedly a serious infringement of international law,” said Gergely Gulyás, a member of the Hungarian parliament representing Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party. But “sanctions have been resulting in serious disadvantages not only for Russia but also for Hungary together with the whole European economy,” he said. “The sanctions do not lead to real solutions.”

Hungary’s economic relationship with Russia in large part revolves around the expansion of the Paks nuclear power plant, which will be carried out by Russian state-owned company Rosatom. Russia is extending its Hungarian partners a €10 billion loan for the project, and the government in Budapest picked the Russian firm using a no-bid contract.

In Central Europe, policymakers are hoping that Hungary’s close relationship with Russia will not translate into a concrete defense challenge.

“When looking at it purely from a defense perspective, Hungary is a responsible ally, duly contributing to NATO’s collective defense,” said Jan Jireš, who serves as defense policy director at the Czech defense ministry, noting that “I don’t see any negative impact of the alleged chummy relationship between Orbán and Putin on how Hungary performs as a NATO ally.”

“Up to now the dilemma for Central Europe was that the U.S. was distant but reliable, and Russia close but unpredictable. Putin will now present himself as the grown-up in the region” — Mark Galeotti, Russia expert

Nevertheless, the victory of Trump, who has referred to NATO as "obsolete," is leading governments across the region to re-evaluate their priorities.

“Up to now the dilemma for Central Europe was that the U.S. was distant but reliable, and Russia close but unpredictable," said Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian politics currently serving as senior research fellow at the Institute of International Relations Prague. "Putin will now present himself as the grown-up in the region.”

Hungarian opposition

When Putin arrives in Budapest, he will face protesters and a population that — despite the relative popularity of the Orbán government — is not actively pro-Russian.

Members of the Hungarian opposition fear that Orbán is emulating his Russian partners, especially when it comes to the silencing of the Hungarian press and the Hungarian government’s public declarations that it is preparing for a crackdown on non-profit organizations.

Critics remain concerned about national security risks stemming from the expansion of the Paks nuclear power plant. Some observers have also pointed to Russian disinformation in the Hungarian media as evidence of Kremlin efforts to shape public opinion.

“This is the wrong direction for our country,” said Viktor Szigetvári, head of the opposition liberal Együtt party, whose plans for a protest in front of Hungary's parliament on the day of Putin's visit were disrupted when Hungary's counter-terror force, TEK, announced that it will cordon off the area despite the fact the opposition party had already been granted a protest permit. “We should have better relations with our Western partners.”