One in six of the Earth’s species will likely become extinct if we don’t take immediate action on climate change, warns new research.

The study, published Friday in Science, also says amphibians and reptiles face greatest risk, and chances of extinction are the highest in New Zealand, Australia and South America.

It is the most comprehensive look yet at the effect of climate change on biodiversity, analyzing 131 existing studies on this subject.

“One in six species would be a dramatic change to our environment,” said study author Mark Urban, as rising temperatures alter weather and vegetation patterns, forcing species to migrate to cooler areas to survive.

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Urban, an ecologist at the University of Connecticut in Storrs, says in his analysis that if the average global temperature rises 2 C above the pre-industrial average and holds there, then 5.2 per cent of species might eventually be wiped out. But if it gradually tops out at 4.3 C above pre-industrial levels, one in every six species could ultimately disappear.

The trouble is many scientists think that keeping warming under 2 C isn’t achievable, given current estimates of future emissions.

The impact of climate change isn’t always immediate, said Urban, and not all species are affected similarly. In some cases, habitat might shrink to where it can’t support the species. In others, it might disappear altogether. In yet other cases, a species might die out before it can reach a new, welcoming homeland.

“Extinction is the tip of the iceberg … but there are a whole lot of other changes,” said Urban, citing population decreases, changes in distribution and even altered interaction between species.

His paper also says the forecasts are gloomiest for species in Australia, New Zealand and South America — home to diverse species with small ranges. “A lot of these species often have smaller sizes and they are already at risk,” he said.

Risks in Australia and New Zealand are also exacerbated by small land masses, which limit how far a species can range to find a new home.

But, said Urban, there is still much that scientists don’t know about how species will react to warming, and some plants and animals species may evolve and adapt. “We need to refocus efforts on less studied and more threatened regions.”

While the goal of the study was to consolidate a range of research, its conclusions should be a wake-up call, said Urban, who believe we may still have time to act.

“We can begin to rein in greenhouse gas emissions. We can start to identify the species that need most help and begin conservation efforts,” he said. “If we can create good models of extinction risk, then we can figure out which species are in danger and put conservation measures in place to save them.”

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Janneke Hille Ris Lambers of the University of Washington in Seattle, also writing in Science, called the research a “sobering estimate of climate change-induced biodiversity loss.”

There are uncertainties, she agreed but said if we do not take action “it is clear that we will soon to able to directly observe the impacts of climate change on diversity.”

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