Donald Trump’s first presidential debate was a disaster.

That’s the assessment of Republican insiders in this week’s POLITICO Caucus, our weekly bipartisan survey of the top strategists, activists and operatives in Iowa and New Hampshire. They offered their reactions immediately after watching Thursday’s 9 p.m. prime-time debate in Cleveland.


Forty-four percent called the controversial real estate mogul the biggest loser of the evening, critiquing everything from his refusal to rule out a third party run, to perceived misogynistic comments to his acceptance of single-payer health care in other countries.

“Trump is an egomaniacal thug and everyone who never watched The Apprentice now knows that, too,” an Iowa Republican charged.

“What was his worst response: third party, chauvinism, single-payer, or bankruptcies?” railed a New Hampshire Republican, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely. “His limited number of supporters can’t look the other way on this stuff forever.”

“Trump came across as peevish in his refusal to support the victor of the primary process,” said another New Hampshire Republican. “As a Republican I was proud of all the candidates on the platform with the exception of Trump.”

Trump, who went into the debate as the highest-polling candidate in the field, has dominated headlines for weeks, sucking up oxygen from other candidates and forcing fellow presidential hopefuls to take positions on some of his more controversial statements concerning issues such as illegal immigration.

Democrats have reveled at the unsettling effect Trump has had on the GOP field, and sought to equate his views with those of the Republican Party. So it was perhaps not surprising that more than a third of the Democrats who are POLITICO Caucus participants named him as the winner of the debate, noting that he was the center of attention in every respect— given his rank in the polls, he even stood at the center podium.

“This was supposed to be the debate where the Trump was pushed out, instead he got more air time, more often got the last line, and was the most entertaining person on stage,” gloated a New Hampshire Democrat, who like all participants responded through an online survey. “Tomorrow he will be the candidate every American is talking about. And years from now the 2016 election will be remembered as the start of Hillary Clinton’s first term and that time Donald Trump owned the GOP debates.”

Among Republican insiders, Trump’s refusal to rule out a third-party candidacy left a bad impression, raising questions about his commitment to the party and its conservative principles.

“Not committing to support the eventual nominee should send chills through the GOP,” an Iowa Republican warned.

“He proved many folks’ worries that he’s all about himself and not the conservative cause when he didn’t close the door on a 3rd party run,” said another Iowa Republican.

For some Democrats, the distaste was too much to bear, even if many separately thought his rise in the polls might benefit Hillary Clinton.

“Finally they put Donald Trump into context and his ignorance became glaringly apparent…frankly I had to run out of the room every time he opened his mouth,” a New Hampshire Democrat said.

Here are three other takeaways from this week’s special debate edition of the POLITICO Caucus:

1. Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush were the winners.

Republicans were evenly split on the question of who won, with 30 percent of GOP respondents percent picking Rubio and 30 percent selecting Bush. Thirteen percent picked New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and the rest were evenly divided between Ohio Gov. John Kasich, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Trump (those who said Trump largely did so because they thought Trump maintained control of the debate).

While Rubio and Bush were both perceived as winners, there was a big gap in perceptions about their respective performances. Those who characterized Rubio as the winner tended to offer glowing assessments; those who picked Bush thought he won simply by not losing.

“Articulate, on message, embodies the hope of America,” a New Hampshire Republican said of Rubio.

“Marco looked relaxed, had well articulated answers and good energy,” said an Iowa Republican.

“His answers were smart, complete, and succinct,” agreed a New Hampshire Democrat. “He comes across as very likable, and avoided all the Trump drama. Those candidates who tried to gain advantage by engaging Trump failed.”

The expectations for Rubio were different from those set for Bush. While Rubio was perceived as breaking into the top tier of the GOP field after his presidential announcement this spring, he has laid relatively low this summer. Some saw him fading, which lowered the bar for him in the debate on Thursday. His performance will pay dividends down the road, insiders said.

“He’s the best communicator in the bunch, and it showed,” a New Hampshire Republican said. “He and Carly [Fiorina] will gain the most from today.”

Those who picked Bush largely did so out of the sense that he gave a solid performance — he didn’t light up the room, but facing high expectations and a harsh spotlight, he made no major missteps, insiders said.

“He accomplished what he had to,” a New Hampshire Republican said. “He looked like the adult on stage, avoided gaffes and wasn’t the target of attacks form the other candidates on the stage.”

“He was strong, stayed consistent, and didn’t back down from his positions,” said an Iowa Republican. “He articulated his positions well, and was forceful.”

Added a New Hampshire Democrat, “No major screw up; his job was not to lose it and he managed to pull it off despite offering no positive vision for the future.”

Others, Republicans and a smattering of Democrats, said Bush looked “presidential” (though 36 percent of Democrats called Bush the loser of the debate, saying he didn’t live up to expectations).

“Gov Bush is held to a higher standard and met it,” an Iowa Republican said. “He kept faith with personal goal of staying positive with an inclusive message of growth and optimism. And he looked Presidential.”

Several also noted that Carly Fiorina, who did not qualify for the prime time debate, had a stand-out performance in the earlier 5 p.m. contest and added that they expected to see her on bigger stages down the road.

2. Keep an eye on John Kasich.

Nine percent of Republican insiders and 18 percent of Democrats called the moderate Ohio governor the winner of the debate — but several more called him the runner-up, and other insiders said he’s one to watch.

Kasich, who just joined the race last month, has low name identification and barely met the polling threshold necessary to qualify for the prime-time debate. But insiders said his performance paid off, calling it an impressive introduction to the national stage.

“It’s a push between Rubio and Kasich- both were excellent- Rubio gets the nod only slightly because his campaign has been becalmed- but Kasich who may have been the last candidate to make the stage clearly proved he belongs there,” offered a New Hampshire Republican. “Watch out Jeb.”

“It was the Donald Trump show to be sure, but for the last man into the debate, Kasich got considerable air time, received generous applause (as expected), and outdid his ‘moderate/establishment’ opponent in Jeb Bush,” offered a nonpartisan source.

3. Rand Paul bombed.

On this, Republicans and Democrats agreed: Paul had one of the worst performances of the night, second only to Trump among Republicans, and Bush among Democrats. The Kentucky senator, who has suffered a number of setbacks recently — including the indictment of longtime adviser Jesse Benton, the head of his super PAC — sought to break through by offering an aggressive performance, tearing into Trump within minutes of the debate and getting into a rough back-and-forth with Christie over national security and civil liberties. But that approach backfired, Caucus insiders said.

“Paul looked like a whiny teenager interrupting other candidates and fighting with them. Christie and Trump both discarded him with ease. Arguably, Paul might be the one candidate that won’t be on this big stage next time,” said an Iowa Republican.

“He appears more and more irrelevant and accomplished the unlikely feat of nearly making Ted Cruz look like a statesman,” a New Hampshire Republican agreed.

“He came across as angry and sarcastic,” a New Hampshire Democrat said. “He seemed to want to pick a fight and I don’t think he picked the right ones. He was almost chomping at the bit, seeming to be wound up tight looking for an opening to jump in and assert himself.”

Said another New Hampshire Democrat: “He did not come across well - he doesn’t do angry very well. He needed to be a winner tonight, and he was among the weakest.

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus (not all of whom participated this week):

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.