Republican insiders are rapidly losing confidence in Donald Trump’s ability to win their states.

After a nightmarish, seven-day stretch that began with the release of a tape of the now-GOP presidential nominee making sexually aggressive remarks, just 27 percent of GOP swing-state insiders say Trump would win their states if the election were held today. That's down from the roughly half of Republican insiders who said Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton in their states over the past six weeks.


Democratic insiders are more certain of the outcome — 99 percent said Clinton would carry their state.

That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives across 11 key battleground states.

Last week, 44 percent of Republicans said Trump would win — before the tape of Trump was revealed and some Republicans turned on him, but after he had ticked down in the polls following his first debate with Hillary Clinton.

The new survey went out to insiders just as a number of women came forward through the news media to allege that they were subjected to unwanted advances and, in some cases, contact from Trump.

“This is the first week in nearly six weeks that I have thought Hillary would win Iowa, given all of Trump's demographic advantages,” said one Iowa Republican — who, like all insiders, completed the survey anonymously. “Donald Trump is in a virtual meltdown as a surge of requested early ballots start reaching voters. Trump's collapse is a perfectly timed gift to the Clinton campaign. He's locking in his vote at a time when the bottom is dropping out.”

“This state was trending her way even before the ‘Access Hollywood’ scandal,” an Ohio Republican added. “Trump has thrown away the college-educated woman bloc and also hurt himself with college-educated men. Hillary's share of the African American vote will grow.”

A Colorado Republican said their state was uphill for Trump, even before the latest revelations.

“Colorado was always Hillary's to lose,” the Republican said. “But Donald Trump decided to just hand it to her.”

Some Republicans who said Clinton would win added that they thought Trump could rebound.

“It's a bad week for Trump, but he still has a good chance of winning” North Carolina, said a Republican there. “The RNC has put together a good grassroots operation that's hitting its stride. They're doing 9,000-10,000 doors a day and have put a real emphasis on the more conservative eastern part of the state.”

A Wisconsin Republican added that “voter contacts since Monday showing Trump regaining momentum.”

Democrats, meanwhile, have always been confident — at least 90 percent have picked Clinton to win each week — but they're even more assured this week.

“Trump is done!” exclaimed an Ohio Democrat.

A Nevada Democrat added that it was “close to game over at this point.”

“It's over in [New Hampshire],” a Democrat there said. “He's done. God is good.”

Here are four other takeaways from this week’s survey:

Republicans believe the debate helped Trump.

Asked whether Trump’s performance in Sunday’s second debate staunched the bleeding for the GOP nominee, a majority of Republicans, 61 percent, say it has.

“The people who clutched their pearls at his idiotic remarks were already leaning against Trump,” said an Ohio Republican. “His debate performance helped with his base but didn't grow it much.”

“The media conversation has pivoted from the video, to the debate to now more Hillary emails and of course what other shoes could drop on the candidates,” a Florida Republican.

But nearly four-in-10 Republicans said Trump still hasn’t stabilized — lamenting the trajectory for the GOP moving closer to Election Day.

“It's a bloody train wreck, painful to watch the way the race for the presidency of the greatest country in the world is accelerating into the gutter in ways we have not seen in generations,” a Colorado Republican said. “I feel ashamed and sad that the party of Abraham Lincoln has been hijacked in such a profoundly disconcerting and dysfunctional way.”

And joked an Iowa Republican: “You cannot print the words ‘Trump’ and ‘stabilized’ in the same sentence.”

Democrats, meanwhile, said by an overwhelmingly margin that Trump hasn’t stabilized: 85 percent to 15 percent.

“Stabilized [the race] in the minds of ‘Hannity’ viewers, maybe,” quipped a Florida Democrat.

Democrats see a wave building, while Republicans are betting on ticket-splitters.

Could Trump’s slide in the polls also weigh on Republicans down-ballot?

Democrats think so: 69 percent say Clinton’s increasing advantage in the polls is a sign that a Democratic wave is building, compared to only 31 percent who say either Trump will rebound or voters will split their tickets to boost GOP down-ballot candidates.

“While I grant that Donald Trump is different, split-ticket voting is a thing of the past,” a Florida Democrat said. “The past 12 years of elections have proven this case. Republicans are in denial of this fact.”

“Democrats are getting excited,” added a North Carolina Democrat. “Talk of being able to take back the House, even if a long shot, has lots of people motivated to get out the vote.”

But Republicans are skeptical: 76 percent say Trump will rebound or there will be ticket-splitters, while 24 percent see a Democratic wave.

“Hillary Clinton is wildly unpopular,” a Michigan Republican said. “If she does win the White House, voters who dislike her will want to make sure that there is a balance of power.”

Insiders are divided on Paul Ryan’s gambit.

House Speaker Paul Ryan didn’t have many good options when it came to Trump, and insiders in both parties are rendering a split decision on the Wisconsin Republican’s plan to cut Trump loose, though without rescinding his endorsement.

Asked whether Ryan’s decision was smart, or whether he should have done something different, 53 percent of GOP insiders called it a smart decision, while 47 percent said he should have picked a different path. Democrats split, 49 percent to 51 percent, in the other direction.

“Ryan, like the rest of the GOP, is in a no-win situation,” a Colorado Republican said. “Trump's candidacy has proven to be a once-in-a-generation catastrophe for the Republican Party. It's all over but the crying.”

“Sometimes, you just have to defend your house before you can defend another's,” a Florida Republican added. “Remember, always put your oxygen mask on first, so you can help others…”

Other Republicans lamented the perception that Ryan was abandoning his party’s presidential nominee.

“Ryan and other Republicans should just shut up,” a Michigan Republican said. “Republican-on-Republican violence does nothing but distract the media from Hillary Clinton's ongoing ethical and email woes.”

“He should have spoken to his members before acting,” an Ohio Republican added, calling Ryan’s decision “knee-jerk.”

But for some Republicans, they are looking to party leaders not for political calculations, but for moral stands to help chart a post-2016 course.

“We all have to be able to look our children in the eye when this is all over,” a New Hampshire Republican said. “Those who act with integrity and defend the party's core principles will ultimately be those who lead our party forward when this debacle is over.”

Abandoning Trump could hurt some GOP Senate candidates.

Some GOP insiders are worried Trump’s slide could hurt the party’s Senate candidates, as Republicans cling to their majority in the chamber.

In Nevada, three separate Republican insiders said Rep. Joe Heck’s withdrawal of support for Trump would hurt Heck in his race to replace retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. In fact, all six of the GOP insiders in Nevada who completed the survey this week picked Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto to win the race.

“Heck coming out and calling for Trump to withdraw and stating he will not support the nominee is going to cause a larger backlash than he realizes,” said one Republican there. “That move may have just lost him this race.”

Added another Nevada Republican: “Heck needs rural conservatives to offset his deficit in Las Vegas, and he has angered a significant number of them by disavowing Trump. He can recover by Election Day, but as of today he's behind.”

More New Hampshire Republicans picked incumbent GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte to win over Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan, but a couple said the Trump effect could hurt the first-term Republican, even though Ayotte also disavowed Trump last weekend.

“It was leaning for Hassan before, but now it's a strong lean,” one Republican said. “There's not really a path for Kelly moving forward as more shoes drop from the Trump train.”

In Florida, every Republican Caucus insider said incumbent GOP Sen. Marco Rubio would defeat Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy next month. But a number said the race would be tight in light of Trump’s slide – and some questioned Democrats’ decision to divert resources from the race.

“With data I have seen and Trumpdrag in full effect, the most puzzling move is the cancellation of [Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee] ads in Florida,” one Republican said. “Murphy can't win without air support, and he is making it painfully close without it.”

A Democrat, picking Rubio to win, concurred: “The DSCC is really missing the boat on this one.”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this survey:

Colorado: Ryan Call, Laura Carno, Matt Chandler, Will Coyne, Adam Eichberg, Mark Ferrandino, Cole Finegan, Michael Fortney, Andrew Freedman, Ted Harvey, Craig Hughes, Owen Loftus, Pete Maysmith, Frank McNulty, Karen Middleton, Christopher Murray, BJ Nikkel, Josh Penry, Rick Ridder, Alan Salazar, Janice Sinden, Pat Steadman, Pat Waak, Steve Welchert, Taylor West, Roxane White, Rob Witwer

Florida: Fernand Amandi, Scott Arceneaux, JP Austin, Tim Baker, Dennis K. Baxley, Slater Bayliss, Dave Beattie, Wayne Bertsch, Ron Book, Pamela Burch Fort, Jose Calderon, Kevin Cate, Kelly Cohen, Gus Corbella, Brian Crowley, Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder, Justin Day, Judith Diaz, Nelson Diaz, John Dowless, Ryan Duffy, Jessica Ehrlich, Joe Falk, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Damien Filer, Marty Fiorentino, Rich Heffley, Nick Iarossi, David Johnson, Eric Johnson, Marian Johnson, Eric Jotkoff, Chris Korge, Jackie Lee, Susan MacManus, Beth Matuga, Fred Menachem, Jon Mills, Joe Mobley, Ben Pollara, Andrea Reilly, Steve Schale, April Schiff, Max Steele, Roger Stone, Richard Swann, Kevin Sweeny, Christian Ulvert, Steve Vancore, Ashley Walker, Andrew Weinstein, Andrew Wiggins, Ryan Wiggins, Rick Wilson

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Jerry Crawford, Sara Craig, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Ben Foecke, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Charlie Szold, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

Michigan: Jill Alper, Saul Anuzis, Andrea Bitely, Lori Carpentier, Howard Edelson, Jordan Gehrke, Steve Hood, Darwin Jiles Jr., Joe Lehman, Dennis Lennox, Katie Packer, Ronna Romney McDaniel, John Truscott, Stephanie White, John Yob

Nevada: Mac Abrams, Greg Bailor, Barbara Buckley, Yvanna Cancela, Bob Cavazos, Linda Cavazos, Jim DeGraffenreid, Andrew Diss, Peter Ernaut, Ryan Erwin, Chip Evans, Jay Gerstema, Oscar Goodman, Ryan Hamilton, Dan Hart, Pat Hickey, Zach Hudson, Jeremy Hughes, Megan Jones, Lindsey Jydstrup, Adam Khan, Peter Koltak, Roberta Lange, Sam Liberman, Laura Martin, Michael McDonald, Chuck Muth, Erven Nelson, Kristen Orthman, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Jon Ralston, Andres Ramires, Emmy Ruiz, Scott Scheid, Mike Slanker, James Smack, Paul Smith, Jack St. Martin, Mari St. Martin, Daniel Stewart, Brendan Summers, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Michelle White, Ed Williams, Heidi Wixom

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

North Carolina: Don Davis, Francis X. De Luca, Anita Earls, Jonathan Felts, Tami L. Fitzgerald, Dylan Frick, Taylor Griffin, Robin Hayes, Morgan Jackson, Patsy Keever, Theresa Kostrzewa, Michael Luethy, Ray Martin, Thomas Mills, Melissa L. Reed, Chris Sgro, Paul Shumaker, Dee Stewart, Brad Thompson, Bruce Thompson, Charlie Wallin, Doug Wilson

Ohio: Jerry Austin, Greg Beswick, Matt Borges, Erica Bruton, Tim Burke, Janet Carson, Jai Chabria, Martha Clark, Bob Clegg, Damareo Cooper, Jo Ann Davidson, Michael Dawson, Bill DeMora, Cindy Demse, Kathy Dicristofaro, Katie Eagan, Michael Gonidakis, Wes Goodman, Joe Hallett, Ian James, Melissa Klide Hedden, David Leland, Nick Martin, Rhine McLin, David Pepper, Molly Shack, Mark R. Weaver

Pennsylvania: Chris Borick, Larry Ceisler, Valentino DiGiorgio, Jason Ercole, Dan Fee, Charlie Gerow, Marcel Groen, Leslie Gromis Baker, Mark Harris, Nan McLaughlin, Aubrey Montgomery, Christopher Nicholas, Nachama Soloveichik, David Sosar, Todd Stephens, Doc Sweitzer, David Thornburgh, Ray Zaborney

Virginia: Ray Allen, Sandra Brandt, Marc K. Broklawski, Patsy Brown, Janet Carver, John Cosgrove, Brian Coy, Doris Crouse-Mays, Tom Davis, Julie Dime, Abbi Easter, Mike Farris, John Findlay, Joe Fitzgerald, Sean Harrison, Margo Horner, Robert Hurt, Gaylene Kanoyton, Chris LaCivita, Sue Langley, Frank Leone, Robert G. Marshall, Tucker Martin, Ed Matricardi, Susan J. Rowland, Peter Snyder, Susan Swecker, Jo Thoburn

Wisconsin: Meg Andrietsch, Mary Arnold, Kevin Barthel, Mike Basford, Rebecca Bonesteel, Barry Burden, Terri Burl, Jim Camery, Patrick Guarasci, Robert Hansen, Gary Hawley, Marian Krumberger, Emily Nehring, Jason Rae, Brandon Scholz, John Zapfel

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.