“We’re looking at the potential for one of the worst fire seasons, possibly, that we’ve had in about six to eight years,” Basil Newmerzhycky said Thursday afternoon.

Some parts of Utah are in extreme drought, and the southeastern corner of the state is experiencing the most intense level of drought, according to Newmerzhycky, a fire meteorologist with the federal Bureau of Land Management.

Those arid conditions dry out grass and other fire fuels left over from wetter winters, he said.

“Our fire seasons are getting longer, and a lot of fires are getting more difficult to suppress,” the Forest Service’s David Whittekiend said.

Whittekiend and Newmerzhycky presented a forecast of this season’s wildfire risk Thursday afternoon at the pavilion in City Creek Canyon.

“If you look around here, it’s pretty green,” Whittekiend said. “But it won’t be long before these hillsides turn brown.”

The forecast was assembled based on an average of the past 20 years of data to establish a “normal” fire season.

Wildfire risk, he said, will be above average in parts of the state this season: May through August.

(Leah Hogsten | The Salt Lake Tribune) "We're looking at the potential to have the worst fire season in six to eight years," warned Basil Newmerzhycky, BLM Predictive Services Fire Weather Program Manager, Thursday, May 3, 2018, during a press conference held by Utah Department of Natural Resources Division of Forestry, Fire and State Lands. Newmerzhycky points to southern Utah and the Four Corners region, an area that shows exceptional drought conditions this year.

In the eastern part of the state, wildfire risk will be above average through June.

“It’s very unusual for us to issue an above-normal fire potential in May,” Newmerzhycky said. “That does not happen most years.”

The rare May risk level is attributable to intense drought, he said.

Wildfire risk is expected to be above average in southern and central Utah next month, and it will be above average in the northern part of the state in July and August.

(Leah Hogsten | The Salt Lake Tribune) Forestry Service Engine 461 crew member Christopher Roach holds a sign made by Basil Newmerzhycky, BLM Predictive Services Fire Weather Program Manager, Thursday, May 3, 2018, detailing the potential for fire within the Intermountain Region during a press conference held by Utah Department of Natural Resources Division of Forestry, Fire and State Lands.

“It’s a good-news-bad-news scenario,” Newmerzhycky said.

Less wildfire is expected at lower elevations, where there is less grass to burn.

The bad news is that in timbered areas, above 7,000 feet, trees that rely on winter moisture will dry out after a below-normal snowpack, fueling a greater-than-average threat.

“That’s significant because the less snowpack you have in the higher terrain, the quicker the fuels below it become exposed to the warm dry air and the quicker those fuels become receptive to lightning strikes and fire growth as we go into the early summer months,” Newmerzhycky said.

Already this year, state crews have fought wildfires that were started by landowners who had good intensions but lost control, according to Brett Ostler of the Utah division of Forestry, Fire and State Lands.

The majority of fires that Utah crews fight are human-caused — by fireworks, escaped campfires, etc. — according to Whittekiend.

“This season could be busy for us,” Ostler said.

