Chris Guro, of Hellertown, holds an Earth flag during the 2018 March for Science in Bethlehem.

Steve Novak | For lehighvalleylive.com

By Steve Novak | For lehighvalleylive.com

It’s not just you — it really is getting warmer.

Decades of data compiled by the Associated Press in a report last month shows that every part of the U.S. has seen an increase in yearly monthly temperature over the last 30 years, some more than others.

The region including the Lehigh Valley is the fastest-warming in Pennsylvania. It borders New Jersey, the third fastest-warming state in the nation.

With climate change comes a host of other issues, with stronger storms and health risks among them. Here’s what it may mean for us.

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NJ Advance Media file photo

How the AP's analysis works

The AP used data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to establish how monthly average temperatures have changed from 1988 to 2017. The AP then compared that finding to average temperatures from 1901 to 1960, further illustrating how temperatures have changed since the Industrial Age.

It breaks the data down by county and climate division, NOAA groupings of counties with similar weather. Lehigh and Northampton counties are grouped with Carbon and Schuylkill counties in Pennsylvania's East Central Mountain Division, while Warren County falls in New Jersey's Northern Division.

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Temperature Change 1988-2017

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How much warmer did it get?

The AP’s analysis broke it down by county and climate division — groups of counties with similar conditions. You can scroll over the regions in the map above to see how each has changed. There are two that cover our area.

Pennsylvania's East Central Mountains: This region includes Lehigh, Northampton, Carbon and Schuylkill counties. As a region, it warmed 2.07 degrees between 1988 and 2017 — the most in Pennsylvania, followed by two adjacent regions: Southeastern Piedmont to the south, including Philadelphia (2.03 degrees) and Pocono Mountains to the north (1.98 degrees).

New Jersey's Northern region: This includes Warren and Hunterdon counties, along with Sussex, Morris, Somerset, Passaic, Bergen, Essex, Union and Hudson counties. It warmed 2.15 degrees, the least of the state's three regions. The Southern region warmed 2.22 degrees, and the relatively tiny Coastal region is up 2.29 degrees.

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OK. So what does that mean?

A two-degree change in any given year is not very dramatic on its own, but can have broad effects over the long term, said David Robinson, the New Jersey state climatologist and a professor at Rutgers.

There can be a wide variety of effects from climate change, some theoretical, some anecdotal — but still some that can be measured. Let’s start on a broad scale and work down to the local level.

The Northeast — defined as Washington, D.C., through New England — has 64 million people, many living in urban areas vulnerable to climate hazards, according to the National Climate Assessment, compiled by 300 experts and a 60-member federal advisory committee.

The report breaks down past and future impacts by region. Flooding is among the biggest concerns for our area: “Between 1958 and 2010, the Northeast saw more than a 70 percent increase in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events,” the assessment says.

With that comes stressed infrastructure and impacts to agriculture and ecosystems.

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(SEE THE ASSOCIATED PRESS REPORT)

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PHOTOS: The 2018 March for Science in the Lehigh Valley

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What about on the state level?

Many of the regional concerns still apply, but more specific issues can be seen when looking at climate change state by state. Climate Central is a nonprofit organization founded by Princeton ecologist Steve Pacala and tries to do exactly that in its “States at Risk” project, which also grades states on their preparedness.

In Pennsylvania, listed risks include stagnant air (especially in the major cities), flooding, drought and extreme heat. However Climate Central gives Pennsylvania an A for overall preparedness in preparing plans for climate risks, though it notes the state faces "only average or below average threat levels."

In New Jersey, the biggest climate-change risks include flooding, particularly tide-driven along the coast, and extreme heat. New Jersey only gets a D+ for preparedness, particularly with regard to coastal flooding.

In addition to sea level rise, NJ.com notes that climate change could threaten South Jersey's pine barrens by allowing invasive insects to expand. And rising temperatures will worsen air pollution in North Jersey's large urban centers.

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What is the effect of climate change in the Lehigh Valley?

This is where it gets a difficult to say. There are a variety of potential effects, some specific to certain areas, but it’s extremely difficult to attribute any single weather event or condition to climate change.

That said, there are some general occurrences that seem to fit within experts’ broader expectations.

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Snow covers budding plants in March 2018.

Dave Dabour | lehighvalleylive.com contributor

Altered growing seasons: Warmer average temperatures could extend the growing season — or make plants green too early and risk being killed in a late frost, Robinson said. Kira Lawrence, head of Lafayette College's environmental geosciences department and an outspoken activist on climate change, agreed in a separate conversation.

“I know from talking with our current and former college farmer at Lafayette that there are noticeable changes to planting season, insect and plant biomes and anomalous weather events that are reshaping how they approach what they do,” she said.

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NJ Advance Media file photo

Invasive species: Like with the insects threatening South Jersey's pine barrens, problem bugs and other small creatures that normally would be killed off by winter may now survive thanks to warmer temperatures.

That's already happening in Warren County with the Asian Tiger mosquito, a disease-carrier that is being found farther north than ever before, said Jennifer Gruener, superintendent of the Warren County Mosquito Commission. Native mosquitoes are also altering their behavior.

“We’ve started seeing activity earlier than we ever have before,” Gruener said.

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An Easter lawn decoration is up to its ears in snow during a snowstorm March 21, 2018. It was the Lehigh Valley's biggest snowfall of the winter -- though technically spring had started the day before.

Steve Novak | For lehighvalleylive.com

Strange seasons: In addition to effects on plants and gardens, shifts in seasonal weather could impact businesses like hardware stores selling air conditioners, Lawrence said, though that calls for more analysis.

"As you have probably noticed we have been getting many more late season snow storms," possibly linked to warming in the Arctic, she said.

Warmer air can hold more moisture, which means more precipitation given the right conditions.

“It is unclear whether we have seen that already, but there are some suggestions of such,” Robinson said. “At least there isn't any direct concern about sea level rise impacting Warren County!”

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MORE WEATHER NEWS

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Steve Novak may be reached at snovak@lehighvalleylive.com. Follow him on Twitter @SteveNovakLVL and Facebook. Find lehighvalleylive.com on Facebook.