Analytics now part of game plan for NFL teams

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HOUSTON — It once was thought of as geeky nonsense that couldn't possibly aid the complexities of a game that relies on gut instincts, scouting and human intuition as much as quantifiable factors.

In truth, there still are many who think that way about analytics in the NFL and whether they can permeate the sport the way statistical analysis affects baseball and basketball.

So how does a man whose run-first offense harkens to another era, a man brought up in coaching under the supremely old-school Mike Shanahan, see the future of analytics in football?

“I think it's growing every year,” Texans coach Gary Kubiak said. “We obviously use many statistics as we prepare for the draft. I know as a coach we go back and look at everything that's available to us going into the next season. I prepare our whole training camp off of the time we spent on the goal line and in the red zone. I think it's getting more and more involved. Obviously, there's much better information for us nowadays than there was 10 or 15 years ago, and we need to use it.”

In a city with analytics leaders in basketball and baseball, Kubiak isn't resisting a rising trend in his own sport.

Football increasingly is embracing the advantage that can be gained from using analytics. More than half of the NFL had representatives at this year's MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, co-founded by Rockets general manager Daryl Morey. More NFL teams have analytics departments that analyze everything from player injuries to personnel decisions to game planning. The Texans themselves note probabilities of in-game situations, and as Kubiak noted, statistics do affect the way they draft.

Dick Vermeil (right), who was the Philadelphia Eagles' coach from 1976-82, was among the first NFL coaches to embrace statistical analysis. He led the Rams to a Super Bowl win in 2000. Dick Vermeil (right), who was the Philadelphia Eagles' coach from 1976-82, was among the first NFL coaches to embrace statistical analysis. He led the Rams to a Super Bowl win in 2000. Photo: Diamond Images / Getty Images Photo: Diamond Images / Getty Images Image 1 of / 1 Caption Close Analytics now part of game plan for NFL teams 1 / 1 Back to Gallery

“Unfortunately, none of them will ever tell you exactly what they use, because everybody in the NFL is so secretive,” said Aaron Schatz, who created the stats-centric FootballOutsiders.com.

“... The first teams to do significant stat stuff would be Dick Vermeil's teams with the Eagles (from 1976-82). “... And I'd say the teams that really began to bring it to the next level are San Francisco, Philadelphia and New England.”

New England's and Philadelphia's trend toward analytics came from coaches Bill Belichick and Andy Reid. The Cowboys, Ravens, Raiders, Browns and Jaguars also utilize advanced stats.

San Francisco's transformation started with the hiring of Paraag Marathe in 2001 to devise ways of affecting draft strategy through statistical analysis. Marathe now is the 49ers' chief operating officer.

Soon, the organization began creating statistics through film breakdowns in ways that irked some of the 49ers' traditionalists. San Francisco, however, has been hugely successful the past two seasons, including a Super Bowl trip this year.

Schatz saw the proliferation of analytics begin from the outside in baseball and basketball. Football's secretive nature made that slower. His own interest in such statistics began when he wondered why his Patriots missed the playoffs in 2002 a year after winning the Super Bowl.

He began noticing that some bits of conventional wisdom were fallacies once analyzed statistically. Winning did not require establishing the run. Punting or kicking a field goal on fourth down, especially on the opposing team's side of the field, was frequently the wrong decision.

“That doesn't mean to lose your mind and go for it on fourth-and-11 at your own 30,” Schatz said. “You should never ever, ever punt the ball when you're at fourth-and-1 on the opposite side of the field.”

Since Schatz started Football Outsiders, other sites have joined the fray to contribute to the subject. Teams sometimes use these sites or their people to help analyze their own personnel. When Chicago Bears general manager Phil Emery sought to delve into what was wrong with his offensive line, he looked up the advanced stats of STATS LLC and ProFootballFocus.com.

“I'm familiar with STATS, Inc.; we're one of their contracted teams,” Emery said during a news conference in Chicago. “Spent quite a bit of time with their people, not only their programmers but went to their offices, watched how they grade tape, how they triple check all their facts. So I trust all their data, that's it's unbiased, that it doesn't have my hands in it, that it doesn't have our coach's or scout's hands in it, or anybody else in the league. They are simply reporting fact.”

Football's use of analytics is different from baseball and basketball. It depends on a coach who's able to combine smart decision-making with advanced numbers.

“I think football, in a lot of respects, is really different than the other sports in that the quantifiable performance data of the players, statistics in general, are probably secondary to things that are harder to quantify like mental toughness, ability to learn, ability to persevere,” Patriots president Jonathan Kraft said at a recent Sloan conference.

As the amount of data for football grows, the accuracy of advanced statistics also will grow.

And while the use of statistics might always be different in football than baseball or basketball, it's growing as another weapon in teams' endless search to find any kind of edge.