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A major topic at tonight’s presidential debate — maybe the first topic — will be “debt and entitlements,” according to Chris Wallace, the Fox News host who is moderating the debate.

I encourage you to watch for whether Wallace bases his questions on budget reality. Much of the public discussion of the national debt isn’t based on reality. It instead relies on facts that are badly outdated.

The clichéd way to talk about the debt is in alarmist terms — to warn of Social Security going broke or to make references to trillions of dollars of red ink. And this negativity does have some connection to reality. Our current tax system doesn’t seem to be raising enough money to pay for the retirement of the baby boomers, especially their health care. Eventually, taxes will need to rise or benefits will need to be cut.