1 big thing: GOP fears Cohen set road to impeachment

Impeachment proceedings against President Trump went from a theoretical danger to a vivid reality with yesterday's guilty plea by former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen, sources close to the White House tell Jonathan Swan and me.

Cohen's guilty plea (with the president identified as "Individual-1") said Trump directed him to arrange hush money during the 2016 campaign to keep women from speaking out about affairs.

(with the president identified as "Individual-1") said Trump directed him to arrange hush money during the 2016 campaign to keep women from speaking out about affairs. So Cohen was accusing Trump of pushing him to commit a crime.

Trump of pushing him to commit a crime. Look for Cohen’s statement to form the basis of a 2019 impeachment attempt if Democrats win control of the House in November.

A big cause for fear: White House officials now see a future where this damning charge of criminal behavior is simply part of a broader case against Trump, including:

Obstruction of justice around the firing of James Comey, with similarly damning testimony by former national security adviser Michael Flynn, who is cooperating with investigators, and White House Counsel Don McGahn, who has spent 30 hours with Mueller’s team.

around the firing of James Comey, with similarly damning testimony by former national security adviser Michael Flynn, who is cooperating with investigators, and White House Counsel Don McGahn, who has spent 30 hours with Mueller’s team. Charges of illegality or shady behavior related to the infamous Russia meeting at Trump Tower, as well as other contacts with Russian officials.

or shady behavior related to the infamous Russia meeting at Trump Tower, as well as other contacts with Russian officials. Some officials fear that even if Trump himself did nothing wrong, this all will be seen in a different light when stacked on top of the others.

The plea by Cohen, paired in a split screen with the near-simultaneous conviction of Paul Manafort, is what Trump’s aides feared all along:

The Mueller investigation would lead these hardened investigators down rabbit holes that only Trump and his murky associates knew about.

would lead these hardened investigators down rabbit holes that only Trump and his murky associates knew about. The crimes detailed yesterday have nothing to do with colluding with Putin to throw an election — but are felonies, nonetheless.

have nothing to do with colluding with Putin to throw an election — but are felonies, nonetheless. And, in a stunning twist, the president’s former attorney — the guy who would yell obscenities at reporters and threaten them in the obsequious, unquestioningly loyal service of his boss — is now the greatest known threat to the Trump presidency.

Trump friends say for the first time that they're worried about the president:

A source close to Trump said: “I must admit a bit of concern about what he [Trump] would do fully backed into a corner.”

“I must admit a bit of concern about what he [Trump] would do fully backed into a corner.” "By striking a deal with Mr. Cohen that includes prison time," the N.Y. Times reports, "federal authorities were aware of the risk that the president might pardon him."

Presidential historian Jon Meacham brings in the orchestra, telling MSNBC:

"This is rather like the third week of June, 1973, when [former White House counsel] John Dean went to the Senate and began his testimony" before the Watergate committee.

the third week of June, 1973, when [former White House counsel] John Dean went to the Senate and began his testimony" before the Watergate committee. "It's not unlike ... the second week in July in the same year, when [former Nixon White House aide] Alexander Butterfield revealed that there was a White House taping system."

... the second week in July in the same year, when [former Nixon White House aide] Alexander Butterfield revealed that there was a White House taping system." "It's the kind of moment that you can begin to see a genuine inflection point."

A few hours before the verdict, I asked Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani — in Scotland where he's attending a wedding — about Trump's mood:

"It's certainly not affecting his golf game, or his negotiations about North Korea. ... He feels that people are finally getting to see his accomplishments. And public opinion each month — the whole thing has switched when it was originally very much in Mueller's favor, it's now somewhat against him."

Be smart ... A usually buoyant outside West Wing adviser suddenly sees darkness:

"Booming economy, robust bull market, troops in harm’s way but not in a large scale war. And yet the President is enmeshed in a series of scandals and controversies."

robust bull market, troops in harm’s way but not in a large scale war. And yet the President is enmeshed in a series of scandals and controversies." "And that is before the Dems in House start with the investigations" if they take the majority.

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