How will the West Seattle Bridge closure impact the housing market? 3 experts weigh in

3816 19th Ave SW Seattle, WA 98106, listed for $1,085,000. See the full listing here. 3816 19th Ave SW Seattle, WA 98106, listed for $1,085,000. See the full listing here. Photo: Redfin Corp. Photo: Redfin Corp. Image 1 of / 89 Caption Close How will the West Seattle Bridge closure impact the housing market? 3 experts weigh in 1 / 89 Back to Gallery

With the West Seattle Bridge likely staying closed to traffic until 2022, the neighborhood is faced with a lot of uncertainty.

Commutes will no doubt be longer and people will have to grapple with what will happen when social distancing requirements are lifted and businesses and schools start to reopen.

So, will people start moving to other neighborhoods? Will property values in the area go down?

Here are the basics: the bridge carried an average of 100,000 vehicles and 25,000 transit riders a day before the novel coronavirus pandemic. It originally closed on March 23 due to cracking along the center. The city said earlier this month recent inspections have shown cracks in the bridge have continued to grow. The Seattle Department of Transportation doesn't have an exact timeline of when or if the bridge will be able to be reopened.

City officials are looking into measures to ease the closure of the bridge, but its true impact won't really be felt until the social distancing restrictions are lifted and people begin to go back to work.

Local real estate experts say there could be a pick up in the number of people listing their homes in West Seattle and there will probably be less competition, which could make it a good time for buyers set on West Seattle to get into the market. But there are a lot of dynamics at play.

The housing market in West Seattle and across the region has been strong, with low inventory and strong buyer demand. The bridge closure will have an impact, but it might not be as drastic as people think.

And for people who are looking to be in West Seattle for the long term, local agents don't expect the disruption -- even though it could last for a few years -- will impact their want to move to West Seattle, or willingness to stay there.

But truly, only time will tell.

Here's what else the experts had to say about the West Seattle housing market.

Beth Grotelueschen, Beth G. Homes

Grotelueschen said with the closure of the bridge, she does expect to see an "inventory spike" in the next month or so. She said she could also see a bit of a rise in inventory headed into the fall, once schools and workplaces reopen and people realize the effects the bridge's closure has on them personally.

As far as prices, Grotelueschen said there could be a slight dip, but since the housing market in West Seattle is so strong, she doesn't expect a substantial change in property values. Most houses in the neighborhood have been getting multiple offers, with some getting 10 to 20, she said. So, the closure of the bridge might result in homes getting fewer offers, but the market will likely remain strong. It has been a seller's market in the neighborhood for a while, she said, and the bridge closure could mean it heads toward more of a balanced market.

From the buyer side, she said there could be a number of buyers who had stopped looking in West Seattle, but now want to get back on the market if there's less competition.

"So I see the property values as kind of maintaining their value, maybe taking a slight dip, but in reality I think it's just going to kind of balance the market out," she said.

For people who have more of a long-term outlook, she said she doesn't expect the bridge closure will deter then. Interest rates and conditions continue to be good for buyers.

"If you're in it for the long term, you will be completely fine," she said. "And I think there are a lot of long-term rewards coming into the West Seattle neighborhood."

A lot of West Seattelites, she said, really fall in love with the community, making them want to stay.

"So unless it's a huge imposition on you, I can see a lot of them staying and kind of waiting it out just because the community is what it is. It's a great place to live," she said.

Here are her recommendations. For sellers, the sooner the better.

"Just go on as soon as possible if you know you're going to want out, get out before, because I think its going to be messy at first," she said, on when everything reopens.

And for buyers, start looking.

"If they're in it for the long term, go out and look as soon as possible because I think theres going to be some great homes going on the market and you're going to get some great interest rates," she said.

When the bridge does finally reopen, she said she expects people to be a little cautious at the beginning, after seeing what happened with the closure. But that won't last too long.

Grotelueschen said it's too early to know exactly what will happen once social distancing orders are lifted and people get back to a modified version of their former lives.

"Time will tell for a lot of it," she said.

Leah Kennedy, principle broker, Redfin

Kennedy said so far, the closure of the bridge creates a "different twist" on what the housing market was already experiencing, with low inventory and a strong demand of buyers.

Some sellers have become a bit more hesitant to list their homes, she said. Some buyers also may have put a hold on their search in West Seattle.

"The buyers that were looking here that did not move here already, I've heard some pausing for the moment until they know for sure what's happening and what the plan is," she said.

Once the city has a more concrete plan, with alternative routes, that could help some prospective buyers make a decision.

But even if some buyers may have paused looking in West Seattle, that doesn't mean there isn't demand. Kennedy, similarly, said buyers that couldn't compete before are coming back to the West Seattle market determined.

"Some buyers have returned to the market that stepped away a while back because of the competition, so those buyers are really hoping to have a chance," she said. "Long term ownership is their ultimate goal and they'll get through whatever they have to because of the shutdown."

She said she could also see an influx of investors coming into the neighborhood looking for a good deal.

Overall, she said, for people who won't be as affected by the longer commutes and want to buy in West Seattle, this could be a good opportunity.

"I think that there's a lot of people that work in careers that do not commute to downtown Seattle or north of Seattle, so I think there's many other buyers that are still going to want to buy here," she said.

The neighborhood of West Seattle really has everything, she said -- a great community, parks, restaurants and shopping. Pepole will make do with the bridge's closure, she said.

"I just think that there's ways to get around it," she said. "I think it's probably likely that a lot more people will spend more time in West Seattle rather than going into the city for entertainment and shopping."

Joe Horgan, senior broker, Pointe3 Real Estate

Horgan said the West Seattle Bridge closure is something people didn't see coming. The closure, coupled with the novel coronavirus outbreak, makes it an interesting time to be in the housing market. And the closure of the West Seattle Bridge will likely have impacts that are felt beyond just West Seattle, he said.

Currently, people who have been holding back on listing their homes are gearing up to put their homes on the market, Horgan said. May is historically a good time. But for now, it's a bit of a wait and see game to really understand how the bridge's closure will impact the housing market.

"I think we're all sort of bracing what that's going to look like," he said. "Intuitively you think prices are going to go down."

So, does he think there will be a lot of people trying to leave Seattle?

"I don't see this big influx coming where West Seattleites are going to dump and run," he said. "You'll probably get a whole bunch that just hunker down."

Horgan said he expects there to be a group of people who, even once the social distancing restrictions are lifted, will be able to work from home as companies have learned a remote working environment can be productive.

"I think there's an interesting dynamic where when the new normal dust settles, you're going to have more people working from home," he said. "I think you're going to have a group of folks who are just going to ride it out. A whole group of folks who probably, they can ride it out, they don't have to sell."

That's not to say there won't be any impact, he said.

"It'll have an impact, a negative impact," he said. "I just don't think it's going to be as big...When you first heard the news, you think dire, you think catastrophic."

From the buyer side, he said he expects there will be a group of people who were looking into West Seattle and are now going to reconsider, and look into other neighborhoods. A lot of it will also depend on what the city does to mitigate the inconvenience of the bridge's closure.

On the other hand, like Kennedy and Grotelueschen, he said there are buyers who had been trying to buy in West Seattle but hadn't been able to, and could see this as a good opportunity to have less competition. With more people working from home and more people entering the market who felt they couldn't compete before, he said he thinks that could really help to offset the impact of the bridge closure.

"I think people are going to get a bit creative," he said. "But anyone who wants to stay in West Seattle long term will likely find a contingency."

For people who were already planning to sell, Horgan said they should go for it. This is traditionally a good time of year to sell and there are still buyers out there.

"I think in the short-run, I think sellers will be fine," he said. "And I think that buyers who maybe don't spend a ton of time on the road, this is a good opportunity...Even if you're not really getting a discount at this point, you're not competing against as many."

West Seattle will continue to be a desirable place to live, he said.

"Over time things are going to be just fine," he said.

His overall advice: "I would just take a deep breath and it'll be fine. It'll pass. It'll work out."

RELATED: