Colleagues anticipate outspoken conservative MP will run as an independent if he is dumped from seat of Hughes

This article is more than 1 year old

This article is more than 1 year old

The maverick Liberal Craig Kelly has refused to rule out sitting on the crossbench in the event he loses his preselection for the Sydney seat of Hughes – creating a significant managerial headache for the Morrison government.

Long-running factional tensions in the New South Wales Liberals have been revived after the rightwinger Jim Molan was relegated over the weekend to an unwinnable position on the party’s Senate ticket for the coming election.

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Tony Abbott, who has been warning about negative consequences if Kelly, his factional ally, is dumped, said on Monday he was “personally extremely disappointed” about events over the weekend, “because as far as I’m concerned Jim is an outstanding Australian who has made a fine contribution in his time in the Senate”.

The saga of Kelly’s preselection has dragged on unresolved for months. Liberal sources insist moderates have the numbers to roll the outspoken conservative, but Kelly has dug in for a bare-knuckle fight.

He told Guardian Australia on Monday: “I’m looking forward to putting my achievements on the line, and I’m very confident I’ll be returning as the member for Hughes.”

Asked what he would do in the event he was rolled in the preselection expected before Christmas, Kelly said: “That’s hypothetical at this stage.” Asked several times would he rule out going to the crossbench, Kelly repeated his formulation about not getting into hypotheticals.

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Government colleagues anticipate Kelly will decamp in the event he loses Liberal preselection, and possibly run as an independent. It is unclear when the preselections will be resolved, either before or after Christmas.

The government spent its first day in minority in the lower house on Monday, and waved through a motion in support of creating a national anti-corruption commission to avoid a defeat on the floor.

Scott Morrison has entered into a stability deal with the Queensland independent Bob Katter to bolster the government’s position in the chamber, but any further defections to the crossbench would compound the prime minister’s managerial difficulties.

Liberals in Canberra are still absorbing the impact of the rout over the weekend in the Victorian state election, with the result ominous for the federal contest given the defection of swathes of the Liberal heartland to Labor in Saturday’s poll.

Morrison met with Victorian MPs in Canberra on Monday morning. Ahead of that meeting, Victorian Liberals Scott Ryan and Tim Wilson declared publicly the party’s public positioning was out of step with its electoral base.

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Sources at the meeting say a number of government MPs raised issues about the Liberal ground game during the state campaign, as well as the advertising and mechanics.

Some Victorian MPs also reflected negatively on the state Liberal president, Michael Kroger. Fury about the activity of the organisational wing in Victoria has simmered since federal the leadership eruption in August.

Kroger has resisted calls to resign.