Late September is a pretty volatile time for college football ratings. Preseason projections are getting phased out in favor of the season’s small-sample results, and ratings tend to see some rather significant week-to-week shifts.

Last week, only three teams moved up more than 10 spots in the S&P+ ratings, while only two teams moved down by more than 10. This week, six teams moved up by that amount, and eight teams moved down. We will probably see similar movement next week.

Below are this week’s S&P+ ratings. You can find full unit rankings (and a yearly archive) at Football Outsiders. (Also, if the chart below isn’t loading friendly on your mobile device, that Football Outsiders link should work.)

One thing I’ve included in this week’s table: where a team would be ranked if there were no preseason projections involved. Early in the year, you have to include projections if you want any sort of predictive success, but I figure including this both addresses a lot of questions people might have (“How is [Losing Team A] ranked so high???”) and gives you a better feel for which teams are moving up or down.

Week 4 S&P+ Team Rec. S&P+ Rk Last Week Change Rk w/o preseason proj Team Rec. S&P+ Rk Last Week Change Rk w/o preseason proj Mississippi State 3-0 14.9 17 23 6 1 Penn State 3-0 22.9 4 8 4 2 Oklahoma State 3-0 17.6 13 17 4 3 Washington 3-0 20.6 7 13 6 4 Wake Forest 3-0 8.1 36 50 14 5 Miami-FL 1-0 17.5 15 15 0 6 Michigan State 2-0 7.4 39 37 -2 7 Oklahoma 3-0 22.2 5 6 1 8 Vanderbilt 3-0 7.6 38 43 5 9 Wisconsin 3-0 20.1 8 12 4 10 Central Florida 1-0 0.4 67 68 1 11 Clemson 3-0 22.1 6 5 -1 12 TCU 3-0 15.4 16 19 3 13 UTSA 2-0 -1.6 75 90 15 14 Oregon 3-0 11.2 24 27 3 15 Alabama 3-0 30.2 1 1 0 16 Houston 2-0 8.7 33 39 6 17 Texas Tech 2-0 4 55 64 9 18 Maryland 2-0 2.7 63 67 4 19 Ohio State 2-1 24.1 3 4 1 20 Purdue 2-1 -0.6 71 85 14 21 Michigan 3-0 19.6 11 9 -2 22 Washington State 3-0 9.4 30 31 1 23 Georgia 3-0 14.3 19 20 1 24 Southern Miss 2-1 -0.4 70 80 10 25 Kansas State 2-1 9.4 29 28 -1 26 Utah 3-0 7.9 37 38 1 27 LSU 2-1 20.1 9 2 -7 28 Air Force 1-1 -6.3 94 91 -3 29 Duke 3-0 5.1 49 48 -1 30 USC 3-0 20 10 7 -3 31 Notre Dame 2-1 14.7 18 18 0 32 Minnesota 3-0 5.7 48 60 12 33 South Florida 3-0 6 46 46 0 34 Iowa 3-0 6.3 42 45 3 35 Stanford 1-2 17.5 14 11 -3 36 UNLV 1-1 -9.3 104 108 4 37 Toledo 3-0 5.7 47 51 4 38 Boise State 2-1 9.4 28 29 1 39 SMU 2-1 -0.8 72 72 0 40 Virginia Tech 3-0 11 25 26 1 41 Arizona 2-1 3.6 59 65 6 42 Ole Miss 2-1 11.7 22 22 0 43 Appalachian State 2-1 5 51 55 4 44 Colorado 3-0 6.5 41 40 -1 45 Auburn 2-1 17.7 12 10 -2 46 Syracuse 2-1 5 50 59 9 47 Ohio 2-1 -5.1 89 99 10 48 West Virginia 2-1 3.7 58 63 5 49 NC State 2-1 9.5 27 30 3 50 UCLA 2-1 8.7 34 32 -2 51 Arkansas State 1-1 -2.5 79 83 4 52 Iowa State 2-1 4.9 52 62 10 53 Georgia Tech 1-1 8.7 32 33 1 54 Arkansas 1-1 8.3 35 34 -1 55 Rutgers 1-2 -3.9 82 97 15 56 Tennessee 2-1 9.4 31 25 -6 57 Northwestern 2-1 6.3 43 52 9 58 Texas 1-2 11.4 23 21 -2 59 Virginia 2-1 0.3 68 74 6 60 Northern Illinois 2-1 -2.2 77 77 0 61 Texas A&M 2-1 10.7 26 24 -2 62 Louisville 2-1 14.2 20 14 -6 63 UAB 2-1 -19 127 130 3 64 Navy 2-0 -1.9 76 78 2 65 Eastern Michigan 2-0 -6.3 93 94 1 66 Miami-OH 1-2 -4.1 83 89 6 67 North Carolina 1-2 6.2 45 44 -1 68 Troy 2-1 -1 73 71 -2 69 Colorado State 2-2 3.8 57 42 -15 70 New Mexico State 1-2 -9.8 107 113 6 71 Florida Atlantic 1-2 -5 88 98 10 72 Nebraska 1-2 6.2 44 36 -8 73 San Diego State 3-0 3.1 61 56 -5 74 Ball State 2-1 -6.3 95 101 6 75 Buffalo 1-2 -14.9 122 127 5 76 New Mexico 1-2 -8.4 101 103 2 77 North Texas 1-2 -9.1 103 105 2 78 California 3-0 2.7 62 58 -4 79 Kentucky 3-0 3.9 56 53 -3 80 Baylor 0-3 7.1 40 35 -5 81 South Carolina 2-1 4.4 54 41 -13 82 Memphis 2-0 3.2 60 54 -6 83 Arizona State 1-2 1.1 65 66 1 84 Coastal Carolina 1-1 -10.5 109 109 0 85 Army 2-1 -8.6 102 93 -9 86 Central Michigan 2-1 -7.2 97 95 -2 87 South Alabama 1-2 -9.8 106 119 13 88 Marshall 2-1 -7.3 98 100 2 89 Cincinnati 2-1 -2.3 78 79 1 90 Tulane 1-2 -6.8 96 92 -4 91 Kansas 1-2 -11.1 111 111 0 92 Illinois 2-1 -5.2 90 84 -6 93 Florida State 0-1 25.2 2 3 1 94 Idaho 1-2 -11.8 114 117 3 95 Wyoming 1-2 -4.5 84 81 -3 96 Western Kentucky 1-2 1.1 66 61 -5 97 Indiana 1-1 4.8 53 49 -4 98 Missouri 1-2 1.9 64 47 -17 99 Louisiana Tech 2-1 -4.9 86 86 0 100 Fresno State 1-2 -10.2 108 104 -4 101 Old Dominion 2-1 -7.4 100 88 -12 102 Hawaii 2-1 -9.7 105 106 1 103 Connecticut 1-1 -15 124 121 -3 104 Massachusetts 0-4 -10.9 110 115 5 105 Middle Tennessee 1-2 -7.3 99 96 -3 106 Utah State 1-2 -3.8 80 73 -7 107 Texas State 1-2 -20.1 130 129 -1 108 Boston College 1-2 -3.8 81 76 -5 109 Florida 1-1 14 21 16 -5 110 UL-Monroe 0-2 -15 123 123 0 111 Nevada 0-3 -12.1 117 112 -5 112 Temple 2-1 -1.1 74 69 -5 113 Akron 1-2 -14.7 119 122 3 114 Tulsa 1-2 -5 87 82 -5 115 Florida International 1-1 -11.9 115 120 5 116 UL-Lafayette 1-2 -12 116 116 0 117 Western Michigan 1-2 -5.2 91 87 -4 118 San Jose State 1-3 -11.6 112 107 -5 119 Oregon State 1-3 -5.3 92 75 -17 120 BYU 1-3 -4.9 85 70 -15 121 Pittsburgh 1-2 -0.1 69 57 -12 122 Charlotte 0-3 -20 129 128 -1 123 Bowling Green 0-3 -11.7 113 102 -11 124 Rice 1-2 -19.1 128 124 -4 125 UTEP 0-3 -18.1 125 126 1 126 Kent State 1-2 -18.6 126 125 -1 127 Georgia State 0-2 -14.7 120 110 -10 128 Georgia Southern 0-2 -14.1 118 118 0 129 East Carolina 0-3 -14.7 121 114 -7 130

Alabama remains your top team after a businesslike win over Colorado State. The Crimson Tide have been perfectly fine this year and will likely continue to grow into themselves in the coming weeks. But two upcoming road opponents — Vanderbilt (Sept. 23) and Mississippi State (Nov. 11) — have been better if we look at nothing but this season’s results.

What the Top 10 would now look like, if there were no preseason projections

Mississippi State (3-0) Penn State (3-0) Oklahoma State (3-0) Washington (3-0) Wake Forest (3-0) Miami (1-0) Michigan State (2-0) Oklahoma (3-0) Vanderbilt (3-0) Wisconsin (3-0)

That Mississippi State has throttled decent FCS (Charleston Southern) and G5 teams (Louisiana Tech) was reasonably impressive. That the Bulldogs then treated LSU almost as poorly as Charleston Southern was staggering. They have been tremendous in the first three weeks of the season. S&P+ reminds us that being good for three weeks isn’t the same as being good for 15, but so far, so good, to say the least.

Meanwhile, it’s probably a very good thing for college football that its two funnest teams — Penn State and Oklahoma State — have also been two of its best teams so far.

Top movers (good)

UTSA (up 15 spots, from 90th to 75th) Rutgers (up 15 spots, from 97th to 82nd) Wake Forest (up 14 spots, from 50th to 36th) Purdue (up 14 spots, from 85th to 71st) South Alabama (up 13 spots, from 119th to 106th) Minnesota (up 12 spots, from 60th to 48th) Southern Miss (up 10 spots, from 80th to 70th) Ohio (up 10 spots, from 99th to 89th) Iowa State (up 10 spots, from 62nd to 52nd) Florida Atlantic (up 10 spots, from 98th to 88th)

Based solely on 2017 performance, Wake Forest has been a top-five team through three weeks. Because of this, the Deacs have moved up more than 30 spots since the start of the season. Granted, Presbyterian, Boston College, and Utah State haven’t provided the stiffest of competition, but if nothing else, Mississippi State proves that dominance of iffy teams can often be predictive of performance against better teams.

Top movers (bad)

Missouri (down 17 spots, from 47th to 64th) Oregon State (down 17 spots, from 75th to 92nd) Colorado State (down 15 spots, from 42nd to 57th) BYU (down 15 spots, from 70th to 85th) South Carolina (down 13 spots, from 41st to 54th) Pitt (down 12 spots, from 57th to 69th) Old Dominion (down 12 spots, from 88th to 100th) Bowling Green (down 11 spots, from 102nd to 113th) Georgia State (down 10 spots, from 110th to 120th)

I’ve already said what I needed to regarding Missouri’s pathetic performance against Purdue, so instead we’ll use this space to talk about South Carolina.

The Gamecocks began 2017 with a series of what were toss-up games on paper. They were outgained by both NC State and Missouri but rode the Little Things™ to victory; that will eventually catch up to you, and it very much did at home against Kentucky. They actually outgained the Wildcats by five yards but fell, 23-13, and in the process lost Deebo Samuel, by far their best player, to injury. Your trajectory can change multiple times throughout a season. South Carolina’s just changed pretty drastically in a single Saturday.