Advertisements

A new Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll released today showed Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama statistically tied in the Hoosier State.

Obama leads Clinton 41%-38%, but once the margin of error of 4.2% is factored in, the race is even. Where Obama does hold a clear advantage is in the hypothetical head to head matchup with John McCain.

Clinton ties McCain at 46%, but Obama leads the Republican 49%-41%. Even after the margin of error of 4.4% is factored in, Obama still McCain by 3+ points. Some of the trends in the poll are the same as what we have seen in other states.

Advertisements

Obama leads Clinton among urban and suburban votes 47%-33%, but Clinton leads with rural voters, 55%-20%. Obama lead with voters age 18-35, 48-34%, and Clinton leads with voters over age 55, 43%-32%. Clinton leads among white women 48%-29%, but Obama has a small lead with all women, 41%-40.

Is it any surprise that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are tied in another state? Once again, this is a state that will probably come down to demographics. Clinton is able to run close there because it is 50.7% female, and 88% white.

Indiana is an average state with 12.4% of its residents over age 65. It is also a state that is under the national average for amount of people holding bachelor’s degrees or higher. In short, much like PA, this is a state that Clinton should at least hold her own in.

This is why Obama being tied is such good news, because unlike in PA, Clinton won’t have a large bloc of older voters to appeal to.If Obama can win in Indiana, he can put to rest many of the fears that he can’t win a primary in a state with a high percentage of white voters. (Remember, Iowa was a caucus, not a primary).

Wins in Indiana and North Carolina would finish Clinton off. I wouldn’t expect either candidate to pull away in Indiana, but even a small win will be good enough for Obama.

Indianapolis Star-WTHR Poll:

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080425/NEWS0502/804250437/1324/NEWS0502