I’ve been doing some heavy research on Prizm Basketball and over the last few weeks, I’ve noticed something rather interesting. Prizm base is on fire! Now when I say base, I mean slabbed cards, mainly PSA 10 and yeah… the prices are insane.

I’m sure it has a lot to do with the upcoming NBA season, there’s always that hype that player x is going to outperform his previous season. I’m also sure it has something to do with Gary Vee’s recent content, as you often see him showcasing his rather large collection.

The idea of them being valuable makes sense, Prizm is the go-to set for just about every rookie, it’s the perfect mix of affordable, but limited. However, this year, it seems like prices are breaking an all-time high. Anyone with the slightest amount of potential is skyrocketing.

The recent uptrend for these cards has got me thinking… Is Prizm base a safer investment then Silver Prizms?

High Risk/High Reward

2018–19 Prizm Silver #78 Trae Young

When you buy into it a Prizm Silver RC, you’re likely not buying it because you love the player, you’re picking it up as an investment and so is everyone else around you, this is why the cost to enter is so high.

Hobby wise, we expect the top players to do well, in this year’s draft that would be Zion Williamson, Ja Morant, and RJ Barrett, but we’ve seen over the past years is that even late 1st round picks are pulling in some solid numbers.

A Lonnie Walker (Pick #18) Silver RC will run you $75! An Anfernee Simons (Pick #24) will cost you around the same and he only played in 20 games last season.

Now I’m not saying these are bad investments, but you have to admit, that’s a lot to bet on a player you don’t know much about. What if he gets injured? Never plays? Or maybe he just doesn’t live up to the superstar hyped you pegged him at… What happens to that Prizm Silver RC? It DROPS in value! That card that you thought was so limited floods the secondary market… You’d be lucky to get $10 for it.

Cheaper To Keep Her (Him)

2018–19 Prizm Silver #122 Khyri Thomas

There are tons of people getting into this space. Every year a dad introduces another kid into sports cards. That kid probably gets an allowance, who are we kidding, it’s almost 2020, that kid probably owns an online e-commerce business and he’s taking his profits and buying sports cards.

In all seriousness though, he is probably looking to buy his favorite players and when he does he research he’ll find that Prizm is the “IT” set. Let’s say this kid likes Luka Doncic, if you want his Prizm Silver (PSA 10) you’re looking at close to $600, however, if you want his base then you’re looking at $75.

That cheaper entry price makes the card look so much more attractive, especially to the casual fan, he’s isn’t going to be concerned with Silver or Purple, he just wants a rookie card of his favorite player.

To me, this makes the base card more of a collectors card. People who are buying these are more likely to lock them up, maybe due to the reason that they love the player or perhaps the love the team… maybe they’re collecting the set. That’s 3 very different markets.

So yes, there may be a lot in terms of total supply, but not all of them are in circulation. Thus the price of a Prizm Base is likely to move at the same rate as a Silver.

Quantity over Quality

2015–16 Prizm #348 Kristaps Porzingis

In a previous post of mine, I talked about how easy it is to get caught up in the market. Some of us have more money than others and when we do, we tend to only be interested in rarer cards. It’s because, at heart, we’re more collectors than we are investors. Yes, we’re willing to sell rare cards at a profit, but we’d be lying to ourselves if we said we didn’t get a bit of dopamine during the times we held those cards. I did this with both my investments in D’Angelo Russell and Bruno Caboclo. I opted for the Prizm Gold /10 instead of loading up on graded rookie base cards… Here’s why that might have been a mistake.

Let’s go back and look at Luka and while we’re at it, let’s look at Giannis as well. These players are considered the top players in the hobby, at least in terms of Prizm RC’s. Luka being the new guy and Giannis being the guy to sit on the throne next.

We already discussed the prices of Luka’s base and parallel, so let’s take a look at Giannis now.

PSA 10 Base: $500

PSA 10 Silver: $3,850

Now obviously, the numbers for Giannis are a bit skewed, he has less of circulation then Luka Doncic, but for fun, let’s assume that Luka has the potential to reach Giannis type prices… What does that look like in terms of a return for you?

Luka Doncic PSA 10 Base: 6.7x

Luka Doncic PSA 10 Silver: 6.4x

Regardless of the card you buy, you’ll get a 6x return. So why is one better than the other? Here are a few reasons I came up with.

$3850 looks pretty in a bank account, that’s a lot of money! Ask yourself, when was the last time you spent that much money on a card? Better yet, do you know anybody who has? I’m sure some of you answered yes, but the wide majority of you answered no.

Moving a card of that magnitude isn’t as simple as you may think. You’re selling to a select few people at that price point, meaning you’re likely going to have to sell it on eBay. Hello 10% fees!

You also have to ship the card. What if something happens to it? Does insurance cover it? How should you ship it? What about eBay’s return policy? Can you even spend the money or should you wait 45 days? You don’t want to get hit with that return and you don’t have the funds for it. Are you getting stressed reading this? Imagine actually going through it! When you’re selling a high-end card, you have so much to worry about.

2018–19 Prizm #80 Wendell Carter Jr.

Now let’s look at Prizm Base, what is that experience like? Well for starters, you can sell your card just about anywhere… eBay, Twitter, maybe sports card forums… hell, you could probably sell it to a friend if you have any. Maybe you’re buying a local guy and you want to meet up and sell it to someone, that’s a possibility, sure something could go wrong, but losing $500 is easier to swallow than losing $3850.

One thing you could also do is make your initial investment back. Let’s say Luka hit the $300 mark, $500 might be possible in the next few months, but you’re not 100% sure. If you own 10 cards then you could sell a few of them, break-even and keep the rest for a potential longer play.

If somebody requests a return, no big deal, I mean it sucks, but it’s not the end of the world. You take that card, relist it and you’ll likely find another buyer, there’s always someone buying at $500. That may not be the case with the Silver, maybe the previous bidders have already purchased one and are no longer interested in yours, now you may risk losing a couple of bucks.

This last example is my favorite, maybe you fall hard on times, you need to move your card investments to take care of real-life problems. Perhaps you don’t need the full $3850, but just a $1,000, well if you invested in base cards then you could move 2 and sit on the other 8.

There’s just so much more flexibility with Prizm base. The cost of entry isn’t high, the payoff is damn near the same and it’s easier to move the cards. This will especially be the case in the future.

Emerging Markets

Stockx First Card Listings

Over the next few years, I believe the way we buy, sell and trade cards will look completely different. People see the recent increase in activity and they’re going to want to cash in on that. The fees will likely be cheaper, the process will likely be a little bit safer and these platforms will only be selling the creme of the crop.

Now there is a chance Silver could be listed, but I’m almost certain Prizm Base will be listed. These types of markets will want liquidity, constant sells equate to constant fees. Again, when you’re moving a card for $3850, the sales will likely not be that constant, but if it’s $500… well, then you might grab a few people’s attention.

Again, I’m not saying Silver RC won’t be listed, but it‘s not a safe bet, which brings us back full circle to this blog post. All signs point to Prizm Base being the safer investment and based on our Luka math, the better investment. What will you be buying for the 2019–20 season? Graded Base or Graded Silver?