A year from the World Cup, New Zealand look good for a hat-trick of titles but Ireland, South Africa and Wales are all on the rise with England and Australia heading in the other direction

1 New Zealand ◀ ▶ (no move from last year’s rankings)

Defeat by South Africa in Wellington reminded the world that the All Blacks can be beaten – no bad thing with 12 months to go until the World Cup – but they are still the overwhelming favourites for a third straight win. They were not brilliant against France over the summer but then thrashed Australia twice, displaying an ability to find a gear their opponents cannot live with. It will be fascinating to see their response to defeat; do they add a dose of pragmatism to their blistering style, or do they double down? If the bigger picture continues to pose problems – New Zealand Rugby is expecting to make consistent losses from 2020 onwards and as Lima Sopoaga recently said, the player drain to Europe is not going to stop – Steve Hansen’s side are still setting a considerable pace.

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2 Ireland ▲ (1 place)

Europe’s leading lights, having followed up their Six Nations grand slam with a first series win in Australia for 39 years. The Wallabies’ subsequent struggles should not detract from that feat and make no mistake, Ireland’s November match against New Zealand is the headline fixture this autumn, rather than events at Twickenham a week previously. As ever, so much rests on the shoulders of Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton so the former’s neck injury is a concern. But it is only fine-tuning between now and the World Cup for Joe Schmidt and not many of his counterparts can say that.

3 South Africa ▲ (1 place)

The Springboks are anything but dull under Rassie Erasmus. A series win over England having been 24-3 down inside 20 minutes of the first Test was followed by a home win against Argentina, away defeats by Australia and the Pumas and Erasmus claiming he was one loss away from the sack. He was exaggerating but one thing is clear: Erasmus knew only too well the empowering effect beating the All Blacks would have and set about achieving it as soon as the series against England was won. One swallow does not make a summer and all that – and the rematch in Pretoria will be a colossal Test – but the Springboks have shown the world that New Zealand are fallible. Their World Cup track record cannot be ignored either.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The Springboks celebrate after their stunning 36-34 win over the All Blacks in Wellington. Photograph: John Cowpland/AP

4 Wales ▲ (3 places)

Coming to the boil nicely. Warren Gatland has been true to the more expansive gameplan he began to introduce on the tour of New Zealand in 2016, has been helped by the emergence of the Scarlets as a European force, and Wales are reaping the rewards. Sam Warburton’s retirement is unquestionably a setback but they have a wealth of openside options and Alun Wyn Jones is a fine leader. What they wouldn’t give for a November win against Australia, who are in the same World Cup pool, to further demonstrate their progress, for they have not beaten the Wallabies at the last 13 attempts.

5 England ▼ (3 places)

So many questions hang over Eddie Jones’s England side. To name just three: what is his preferred back row, back three and who is his No 1 fly-half? The appointment of John Mitchell only adds intrigue and breaks the mould of Jones’s previous choices as assistants. The hope must be that after a run of five defeats in six Tests, Mitchell, who has a reputation for not suffering fools lightly, has the kind of impact Jones himself did when he first arrived. What can be said with certainty is that England cannot afford anything other than victory against the Springboks on 3 November. Defeat and they will be staring down the barrel with the All Blacks next up at Twickenham. Win both, though, and everything will appear rosy again.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest England’s Owen Farrell looks dejected as France celebrate the Six Nations win in Paris in March. Photograph: Gonzalo Fuentes/Reuters

6 France ▲ (2 places)

Whether you consider it bad luck or bad officiating, it is hard to read too much into their summer series against New Zealand other than they still don’t seem to quite be fit enough to compete with the very best. Certainly, they are getting better though and some early-season performances in the Top14 bode well. Clermont in particular look mightily impressive and the significance of their Champions Cup absence should not be ignored when you consider how many of their France internationals were injured last season and how they will be able to have a regular rest during this campaign. What looked a relatively comfortable autumn against South Africa, Argentina and Fiji just got a fair bit harder, but three home wins are eminently achievable.

7 Australia ▼ (2 places)

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The Wallabies face up to the fact they have lost a home Test against Argentina for the first time in 35 years, 23-19 on the Gold Coast on Saturday. Photograph: Jono Searle/Getty Images

These are bleak times for the Wallabies. A first home defeat by Argentina in 35 years has seen them plummet to their lowest world ranking. Michael Cheika has an air of resignation about him and Lukhan Tui has said that he will not play again this year after an unsavoury incident with a supporter. If there are any glimmers of hope then Australia will be vastly improved when Samu Kerevi and Tevita Kuridrani both return from injury to add ballast to their midfield and it would help if Cheika had a fly-half at his disposal in any kind of form. But whereas once their backline was lethal, now they look in a collective fug.

8 Scotland ▼ (2 places)

Hard to escape the fact that their summer tour, as with the Six Nations, left you wondering if they have the consistency to string a World Cup campaign together. They won handsomely in Argentina but the Pumas were dreadful all summer, and then lost to the USA. Still, when the stars align, as was the case against England at Murrayfield, they will take some stopping. The key for Gregor Townsend is to get them winning when not playing their best and overcoming the departure of the forwards coach Dan McFarland will not be easy. They are also in that awkward position where they appear to be competing against the host nation for second place in their pool.

9 Argentina ◀ ▶

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Argentina’s Pumas celebrate after defeating South Africa in the Rugby Championship in Mendoza in August. Photograph: Andres Larrovere/AFP/Getty Images

In just a couple of months Argentina have made improvements significant enough to cause England, who occupy the same World Cup pool, considerable concern. Put bluntly, they were awful in defeat to Scotland and Wales over the summer but since Daniel Hourcade has been replaced by Mario Ledesma the transformation has been rapid. It may seem strange to praise a side for conceding 46 points but they impressed in defeat by the All Blacks and have beaten both South Africa and Australia so far in the Rugby Championship. They appear to have brought some semblance to their policy on selecting overseas-based players too, and have a habit of peaking for World Cups.

10 Fiji ◀ ▶

They won a fourth straight Pacific Nations Cup over the summer but then lost at home to Tonga soon after, which will not have gone down well. Before that things were looking good for John McKee’s side – they had edged past Samoa, then thrashed Georgia with a stronger side. Autumn matches against Scotland, Uruguay and France await and McKee has been in Europe recently, casting his eye on the wealth of talent available. We know what Fiji will bring to next year’s party – just look at what Semi Radrada did to England for the Barbarians.

11 Japan ◀ ▶

Japan boast impressive wins over Tonga, Italy and Georgia over the past 12 months as well as an eye-catching draw away against France. Only one host nation has failed to make it past the pool stages – no prizes for guessing who – and optimism is rife in Japan they will not be the second.

12 Tonga ▲ (2 places)

Victory over Fiji in Suva is a fine result to hang their hats on. Charles Piutau wants to play for them in Japan – that’s unlikely – but Tonga will cause their pool rivals problems next year. Plenty of stereotypes about the Pacific Island teams exist but there is no doubt that at World Cups, with far more time to prepare, they are all formidable opponents.

13 Italy ◀ ▶

Ranked 15th in the world after a narrow win over Japan in June ended a run of eight straight defeats. They have not won a Six Nations match in 17 attempts and that must end next year if they have any designs on the World Cup quarter-finals. Conor O’Shea can at least take heart from the early-season form of Benneton and Zebre.

14 USA ▲ (1 place)

Unbeaten in 2018 having won their last seven matches including the considerable scalp of Scotland over the summer, during which Harlequins’ new signing Paul Lasike caught the eye. Gary Gold appears to be making an impact.

15 Georgia ▼ (3 places)

Still in limbo as a side too good for the second tier of European rugby but not allowed into the first. Lost to Japan 28-0 in June which is a concerning result but play Italy on 10 November – the perfect opportunity to restate their case for Six Nations inclusion.

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Elsewhere…

Samoa were not helped by the drawn-out saga over Spain and Romania fielding ineligible players in that they had to wait until July to complete their playoff against Germany. They duly won it but other results have been sub-standard recently, while Germany, under the temporary charge of Mike Ford, head into November’s repechage along with Hong Kong, Kenya and Canada, who are the favourites to advance. Elsewhere, Namibia contest their sixth straight tournament and are still looking for their first win while Uruguay qualified without having to go via the repechage for the first time since 2003 after beating Canada over two legs. Russia profited from the Spain/Romania debacle and will play Japan in next year’s curtain-raiser.