Climate Change Could Devastate Coffee Production in Southeast Brazil — Here’s How to Save 75% of It: New Study

By Kam Kompani,

Climate change could significantly undermine Brazil’s coffee production capacities, according to a new study. The paper, however, also offers a way to fight back: agroforestry.

Based on the study’s models, Brazil’s southeastern mountainous regions of Matas de Minas Gerais and Montanhas do Espírito Santo — which are responsible for over 20% of the country’s Arabica coffee production — will be both warmer and drier in 2050.

The researchers forecast that the area’s annual average temperature will increase by 1.7 °C compared to today and annual precipitation will decrease from 1257 to 1199 millimetres. Together, they will lead to a 60% reduction in the land area suitable for coffee production.

Among the options available to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on coffee production is agroforestry — an agriculture land management system in which trees are planted around or among crops to provide shade and control daily temperature. Shade levels of 50% have the potential to reduce daily temperature by 2−3 °C.

The authors found that agroforestry could help to maintain 75% of the area that is currently suitable for coffee production.

A family-owned coffee farm located at an altitude of 1100 meters in Brazil’s southeast region of Matas de Minas. (Photo source.)

The efficiency of agroforestry, however, is strongly dependent on altitude.

“In areas between 600 and 800 metres, agroforestry systems have the potential to increase coffee suitability. In areas between 800 and 1200 metres, agroforestry systems with 50 % shade cover are expected to have a similar positive effect but can also have negative effects,” the authors found.

Without the implementation of agroforestry practices, the study found that regions in altitudes between 800 to 1200 metres will remain relatively suitable for coffee production, while areas between 600 and 800 metres will experience the biggest losses. The suitability for coffee production could slightly increase in areas located between 1200 and 1800 metres.

Relocating to higher altitudes where temperatures continue to be ideal for coffee production has been suggested as another way of mitigating climate change.

“Similar to our findings, a global study identified that coffee production will need to be relocated to higher elevations, where the climate will become suitable for coffee production in the future.”

“However, in our study region the land at elevated areas consist of national parks, which could potentially lead to competing claims for land use for coffee production and nature conservation.”

Brazil is the world’s largest producer of coffee, with mostly unshaded coffee systems and only limited agroforestry coffee systems. (Photo: Image by Young_n from Pixabay.)

The regions of Matas de Minas Gerais and Montanhas do Espírito Santo account for almost one-third of all Brazilian coffee production areas that are managed by small family farmers, the study highlighted.

A reduction of 60% in the surface area suitable for coffee production could severely impact and challenge thousands of livelihoods.

“Since coffee production is at the heart of social, economic and cultural development in the region, smallholder farmers, government, NGOs, academia and policy makers should join forces to implement agroforestry systems in the region to counteract the threat posed by climate change and safeguard the future of coffee production in the Southeast Mountains.”

There are approximately 25 million smallholder coffee farmers globally. It is estimated that 100 million livelihoods in Africa, Mesoamerica and South America depend on coffee production.

Some of the mitigation options available to farmers include migrating to other regions, switching to other coffee varieties, or adopting a suitable land management system, such as agroforestry.

Brazil: A Quiet Coffee Superpower

Brazil is the largest producer and exporter of coffee in the world.

Coffee crops were originally imported into Brazil in the early 18th century from the West African nation of French Guiana. Production quickly spread from northern Brazil southward to the mountainous southeastern states and now spans cross 12 states.

Brazil is expected to produce a record coffee crop this year, surpassing the previous high reached in 2018.