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Brent crude, the benchmark for more than half the world’s oil, traded at US$65.07 a barrel at 10:11 a.m. in London on Monday, compared with about US$45 in June. ING forecasts Brent at US$57 in the second half of 2018. Prices were at more than US$115 in mid-2014, before a global glut sparked the biggest crash in a generation. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. marker, is currently near US$62 a barrel.

Crude’s rebound since last year is encouraging American drillers to pump even as they make efforts to be disciplined on spending, Patterson said. “We need to see prices in the short-term trade below US$60 to reduce that incentive for U.S. producers,” he said.

As American output continues to expand, more exports will sail to Asia, the traditional bastion of Middle East producers. In February, even Saudi Arabia’s state oil company considered participating in these flows via a U.S. unit, before determining it wasn’t economically viable at the time.

Bullish Calls

ING’s outlook is in contrast to bullish views from Royal Bank of Canada and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to BMI Research and Societe Generale SA, which see prices supported as strong demand soaks up supply from the U.S. While Patterson does see healthy oil consumption, he said growth may slow and fail to completely absorb gaining American output.

While the U.S. is now pumping more than 10 million barrels a day, surpassing a record set in 1970, that boom is being accompanied by a surge in overseas shipments, helping drain stockpiles at the nation’s largest storage hub. Exports have averaged about 1.5 million barrels over the past six months, almost double the level in the previous six months, Energy Information Administration data show. Asia is the biggest buyer of the supplies.