Who is going to win the general election? On Sunday we suggested Ed Miliband is more likely to become PM after May 7 than David Cameron. We ran through various scenarios and argued that Cameron will struggle to cobble together 323 seats next month – the number he needs to survive a vote of no-confidence and remain in Downing Street.

When we wrote that piece Miliband and Cameron were equally favoured by the bookies to take power. Miliband is now a 4/6 favourite, and Cameron’s chances have fallen below 50 per cent; his odds are 5/4. (Election Forecast, our fellow forecasters, and the Telegraph have written follow-ups to our take, which you can find it in this week’s New Statesman.)

That piece focused on the challenge Cameron faces. This one is centered around Miliband. If we think he is the more likely PM, what is his path to 323 seats?

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