Researchers have so far been unable to predict an exact time when a devastating earthquake might strike, putting millions, if not billions, of people’s lives at risk in seismically active regions. However, research from Russian scientists has shown that there may be some signs deep below Earth’s surface when a major tremor might come. Scientists analysed internal gravity waves (IGWs) which stem from fluids in Earth’s interior.

Finely tuned satellites can detect these small oscillations, and researchers from the HSE University and the RAS Space Research Institute (IKI), both in Russia, analysed data to conclude that they are able to predict an earthquake. The team of physicists chose three earthquakes to analyse; Uzbekistan on May 26, 2013; in Kyrgyzstan on January 8, 2007; and in Kazakhstan on January 28, 2013. Five days before the earthquakes, there were slight IGWs which presented themselves s a fluctuation of air mass. According to the research published in the journal Doklady Earth Sciences, there were thermal changes in the middle atmosphere stemming from the lithosphere – the outermost part of Earth’s crust – which preempted the tremors. The team said the IGWs began to grow five days before the tremor, peaking two days prior to the event.

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IGWs come from within the planet

Sergey Popel, professor at the HSE Faculty of Physics and head of the IKI laboratory, one of the authors of the study, said: “This means that processes occur in the Earth’s lithosphere, the development of which gives rise to convective instabilities in the lower atmosphere. “They are the cause of IGW in seismically active regions. Internal gravity waves, once they reach mesosphere, can be destroyed. “When this happens, the IGW energy transforms into thermal motion, which affects the temperature.” The new discovery could help scientists predict when the Big One might strike. The Big One is an impending massive earthquake which will inevitably one day rock California to the core. READ MORE: Powerful ‘stormquakes’ can be caused by extreme weather

The Big One could cause widespread devastation across California

Tension has been building along the San Andreas fault for centuries, and experts predict a ground splitting quake for when the fault line finally ruptures. The US Geological Survey (USGS) has said it will be at least a 7.9 on the Richter scale and will leave a trail of destruction. If scientists can use the latest technique to predict the Big One, then it could save up to 40 million lives in California. However, other scientists believe there is no way that an earthquake can be forecasted. John Bellini, a geophysicist at the USGS has said: “We can’t predict or forecast earthquakes. DON'T MISS

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The discovery could save millions of lives

“Sometimes before a large earthquake you’ll have a foreshock or two, but we don’t know they’re foreshocks until the big one happens.” The USGS completely denies that earthquakes can be forecasted, writing on its website: “Neither the USGS nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. “We do not know how, and we do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future.” Scientists have previously found a link between the climate and earthquakes, mainly climate change and the melting ice caps. A team of researchers from the Leibniz Universität in Hannover investigated a major fault zone running across Denmark over the course of 2.5 million years ago to 12,000 years ago – at the end of the last Ice Age.

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