Top Democrats believe they will need ten to 12 Republicans to pass a Syria resolution. Senate all over the map on Syria

Eleven years ago, the Senate Democratic and Republican leaders — Tom Daschle and Trent Lott — teamed up to draft a measure authorizing force in Iraq, giving a bipartisan boost to a controversial war in the Middle East.

Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell are in a different place when it comes to Syria today.


While Reid has emerged as President Barack Obama’s chief Democratic ally on military action in the country, McConnell is voicing skepticism over the administration’s plans, including at a private White House meeting on Tuesday, making him the lone party leader in the House or Senate to withhold his support from the mission so far.

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McConnell’s reluctance to take a position is significant given that his backing for intervention could very well ensure Senate passage of any use-of-force resolution for Syria. Without his support, Obama could face a wall of GOP opposition, ensuring that the vote will be incredibly close — and that Democrats will have to stay largely united in order to give the president a razor-thin victory on a huge national security issue.

So far, McConnell is non-committal.

“I appreciate the president’s briefing today at the White House and would encourage him to continue updating the American people,” McConnell said in a statement on Tuesday afternoon. “While we are learning more about his plans, Congress and our constituents would all benefit from knowing more about what it is he thinks needs to be done — and can be accomplished — in Syria and the region.”

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If the minority leader opposes the Syria plan, it would amount to something of a shift for McConnell, who backed the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and supported military action in Bosnia during the Clinton years despite flagging GOP support. Aides say there are about 20 Republicans who are undecided or have yet to take a public position and who may be looking to their leadership for guidance.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), the minority whip, is seen as a probable “no” vote as well, putting further pressure on McConnell.

“The point I would make is that [Obama] needs to sell not only the leadership but also the rank-and-file members in both houses to get the votes,” Cornyn told reporters after a White House meeting on Tuesday. “But even more importantly than that — that he needs to sell it to the American people. My constituents that I’ve talked to are deeply skeptical of the plan and actually don’t really understand what the strategy is. I think [Obama] needs to make that case more broadly.”

( PHOTOS: Senate hearing on Syria)

The skepticism voiced by the top two Senate GOP leaders comes despite support from the top two House Republicans, Speaker John Boehner and Majority Leader Eric Cantor, underlining the deep divisions within the GOP over whether to follow Obama in an uncertain conflict overseas. And the GOP divide also means that it will be mostly up to Democrats — not Republicans — to push the war resolution through Congress and shoulder the political fallout.

Indeed, with Obama and Reid facing a 60-vote threshold to overcome an expected filibuster once the Syria resolution reaches the Senate floor next week, the vote is still too close to call. Top Democrats believe they will need ten to 12 Republicans to back the measure to get it across the finish line, and so far, the tally is very close.

Out of 46 Senate Republicans, there are roughly eight to 10 expected “yes” votes at this moment, including Sens. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.), according to Senate aides and public tallies of the vote. Corker, the ranking member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is negotiating with Reid and Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) over a more narrow use-of-force resolution than the one initially proposed by the White House. One of McConnell’s aides is monitoring the talks, sources say.

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Another 15 Republicans are seen as “no” or “leaning no,” not including Cornyn. The remaining 20 or so are undecideds.

“I have great reluctance to use the might and power of the U.S. military merely to go in and extract some kind of punishment on a short-term basis,” said Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho), a member of the Foreign Relations Committee. “First of all, we don’t even know what we’re starting.”

Facing a tough reelection back home, McConnell is in a difficult spot: If he backs the Obama plan, he’ll own the costs and the controversies associated with the military effort against the Assad regime. But if he opposes it, he’ll be accused of political pandering to tea party skeptics, including his junior colleague, Sen. Rand Paul, who is a leading opponent of military action in Syria.

“I think in Kentucky — and across the whole country — people are not for getting involved in a Syrian civil war,” Paul told POLITICO when asked about the potential fallout for McConnell. “It’s a pretty strong sentiment. The sentiment you get up here is the opposite. These people aren’t going to be fighting in the war. People at home’s kids will be fighting in the war.”

McConnell’s position will be solidified next week when he confers with his colleagues during private GOP lunches, the first of which will occur next Tuesday, aides said. And given the wide range of views in his conference, McConnell is reluctant to take a firm stand . But he’s raised concerns about the aftermath of any military action, and whether the plans underway are enough to secure one of the most volatile regions of the world.

Corker and Menendez, chairman of Foreign Relations, huddled privately with the president on Tuesday following the broader meeting with House and Senate leaders at the White House. And it’s clear that the resolution is being drafted in the hopes of alleviating mainly Democratic concerns that a broadly worded resolution would give the White House too much leeway for war in Syria.

“It has to be balanced, ensure that the mission can be accomplished and at the same time, not be so open-ended,” Menendez said in an interview Tuesday. “I think we will strike the right balance.”

Reid and the White House believe they can count on at least 45 Democrats, with the other nine as uncommitted or opposed.

Democratic leaders are focusing on a group of junior liberal senators who are undecided or “leaning no,” including Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Chris Coons (D-Del.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Tom Udall (D-N.M.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Al Franken (D-Minn.), said Democratic aides.

Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) are also seen as potential “no” votes, and moderate Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia is seen as a swing vote as well.

Manchin, who has voiced deep concerns about military engagement in Syria, is still a gettable vote, top Democrats believe.

“I’m very skeptical,” Manchin said Tuesday. “But the bottom line is: I have an open mind. I want to learn and make sure I make the proper decision.”

“I still believe there must be a strong and convincing case made to the American people, and we must work to build an international coalition before we lead or join any military response,” Baldwin said.

With Democratic support tenuous on the left, the White House and GOP proponents will have to push hard to secure at least a handful of Republicans, all of which makes McConnell’s position critical to the final outcome.

Asked Tuesday about the role McConnell will play in the end, Corker would only say, “Don’t know.”

Ginger Gibson contributed to this story.