by Trevor Fisher

The 2017 UK election threw up data suggesting that age is more important than class in voting in Westminster elections. While there is still a class element, the big issue was that the older a voter was the more likely to vote Tory*. The youth surge, though still unexplained, particularly in the university towns, is sufficiently important to panic the Tories into considering modifying tuition fees according to the Mail on Sunday of 2nd July.

As I said in my blog on voter registration, published on Labour Uncut and on the ProgPol site, “for the future, the bias in the system has to be tackled. For the future, its voter registration, Stupid!” What won the first Clinton election victory was famously the economy. For the UK, the ability to get the young to register and vote, which will have to be repeated constantly as ‘youth’s a stuff will not endure’, must be woven into the DNA of progressive activity.

The YouGov poll after the election (fieldwork 9-13th June, sample over 50,000) (table 1) showed that both the turnout to vote and willingness to vote Tory increased with age, two thirds of first time voters voting Labour in 2017, but only 19% of over seventies. First time voters were least likely to vote, over seventies the most likely to vote – a stable population able to use postal votes which have now become an alternative way to vote. Table 2 emphasises that class is no longer the key determinant of voting.

As the old are therefore willing to vote in larger numbers and for the Tories thus there is a bias to the Tories but this moved in Labour’s favour in 2017 – the tipping point was age 47 – it had previously been 34 according to YouGov, presumably on 2015 data. A key issue is to maintain and improve the role of youth in future elections which cannot have much to do with the call by Miliband and others for a voting age of 16.

There is no reason to think youth will always vote centre left, and the policy agenda is key to this happening.

Whether the return to 2 party politics in June 2017 continues is an unknown: we can only look at the current data.

This shows that the 4m UKIP votes of 2015 split largely between the 2 main parties with Tories appearing to benefit more than Labour. The Liberals failed to recover from the coalition, and their future depends in part on whether the Remain position favoured by the young becomes a viable issue. The politics of Brexit was not an issue at the 2017 election but Labour’s de facto pro Brexit position is likely to become relevant if it becomes better known to the Glastonbury generation.

Registration is key to participation, and this is also age-related. The figures produced by the pollsters only show those who voted. Old people do not move and use postal votes, which can be organised and give a high participation figure. Younger people, especially students and renters tend to move. The Independent of 22nd May, registration deadline day, said that 7m people had been unregistered, but 2m did so on registrations day leaving 5m unregistered.

If there were 5m unregistered people and this has to be checked, then the task tracking and registering students and renters, to ensure that they have the chance to vote is crucial to any progressive movement. Assuming that the older people are registered as they are a more stable population, then there is a built in bias in the system to the Tories (and UKIP if it makes a comeback, not unlikely). The old appear to be Brexiteers and it was the postal votes that lost the plebiscite over the EU in 2016.

Auditing constituencies to discover where the unregistered live is a democratic issue. However the Tories have little reason to respond to a situation which benefits them. The issues are not merely students, who are always transient but can be tracked through student unions and university processes, but renters. The Independent on 22nd May – registration day – suggested 30% of students were not listed but this was almost equalled in the rented sector, 28% of renters not being registered.

However rented accommodation, one of the big changes that New Labour pushed through and as problematic as voter registration as such, is now becoming a hot spot for non-registration. In one ward in Leeds where 80% are renters, the participation rate almost cost Labour the seat – few people were eligible to vote. So getting people’s details so if they move house they can come back to vote will be crucial to future results. After the June election the ability of students to vote is likely to be increasingly controversial, with the ability to vote at home or in the university seat clearly becoming one of the unknown factors in outcomes. Long term, changes in the registration system are needed. But the Tories won’t change systems which work to make their electoral advantage more solid.

For the short term, the initiative will have to pass to progressives at constituency level for whom voter registration must become part of regular activity. The situation is different constituency by constituency, but there is no constituency where it is not a problem, making canvassing (Voter ID) increasingly irrelevant. Moreover, only 69% of people voted on June 8th and this is for those who managed to register. Counting in the estimated 5m people who did not register, it is clear that non-participation is a major issue for democracy and an unglamorous door-knocking routine will become as vital activity as voter registration was for the Civil Rights Movement in the USA in the 1960s.

*This is a relatively recent development. In 1979 after the Winter of Discontent 42% of 18-24s backed Margaret Thatcher at the ballot box. Industrial action was not popular.

Trevor Fisher was a member of the Labour Coordinating Committee executive 1987-90 and secretary of the Labour Reform Group 1995- 2007. He was a member of the Compass Executive 2007-2009

Tags: age, class, General election 2017, Jeremy Corbyn, Trevor Fisher, youth