Everyone knows profit growth is poised to cool this year. But by how much? Analysts who try to answer that question by looking at signals embedded in the stock market are coming up with some worrisome numbers.

Going by history, the 16 per cent decline in the S&P 500 between September 20 and January 3 reflected investors pricing in better-than-even odds of an economic recession in 2019 and a 9 per cent decline in earnings, JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note. Another approach, the dividend discount model, suggested markets anticipate annual profit growth of 3.7 per cent through 2023, according to Goldman strategists led by David Kostin.

Either is a far cry from the consensus estimate of individual stock analysts, who as of Friday predict earnings in the benchmark will rise 7.7 per cent this year. And both are a major downshift from the 20 per cent-plus increase companies will post for all of 2018.

The divergence is raising the urgency of the upcoming reporting season, which begins next week. Have investors sussed out weakness that has yet to show up in professional estimates? Or maybe volatility got ahead of itself in the worst December for stocks since the Great Depression.