If Australia drifts into recession in the next 12 months it will be due to two main factors – Donald Trump and benign policy neglect from our governments. I would put the probability at over 50 per cent.

Trump and our own leaders, Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, have adopted triumphant rhetoric in describing their economies and prospects. However, as the data turns against them, they spin, deny, obfuscate and blame. Now they must deceive because reality is not on their side.

Shoulder to shoulder: US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Credit:AAP

Trump categorised himself as the master businessman who knows how to rev up the economy. He has claimed the US economy is “the best in US history”, “phenomenal”, “incredible”. His advisers have claimed that the “economic fundamentals are strong because of the President’s pro-growth policies”. Trump operates in the belief that he can rely on a public messaging campaign to convince – or con – the public.

Yet, when the data runs against him, confirming the risk of a recession, Trump becomes more obsessed with media coverage and strikes out, quick to blame “clueless” Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve and that “crazy inverted yield curve”, while tweeting with his customary fondness for capital letters: “The United States is now, by far, the Biggest, Strongest and Most Powerful Economy in the World, it is not even close [to recession]! As others falter, we will only get stronger. Consumers are in the best shape ever, plenty of cash. Business Optimism is at an All Time High!”