The Academy Awards finally take place this weekend, so its time for the most fun part of all this award madness, namely the prediction game. I’ll start off by saying that this year seems to be the hardest one to predict in recent memory, for there appears to be a reasonable divide in many of the main categories. I’d also like to use this opportunity to write how some of these nominees actually rank in my personal book, since until yesterday I was still trying to catch the ones I hadn’t seen (there are a couple that I missed in the “lesser” categories), so I couldn’t address this matter before. Anyway, let’s get to it.

First I’ll give a few predictions on the more technical categories, areas in which I’m no expert and can’t give a detailed judgement, but I’d still like to give it a shot:

Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049 – the man is one of the best cinematographers of our time, and he doesn’t have an Oscar! Give him the damn statue already!

Best Visual Effects: Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri and Joel Whist, War for the Planet of the Apes – the CGI monkeys are nothing short of impressive; could still go in Blade Runner‘s way though, or maybe even to Star Wars.

Best Editing: Lee Smith, Dunkirk – great job at recreating the intensity of battle, though there are some detractors towards the film’s non-linear structure; could also go Baby Driver‘s way.

Best Sound Mixing: Tim Cavagin and Julian Slater, Baby Driver – chase sequences extremely well mixed to the soundtrack of classic tunes.

Best Sound Editing: Michael W. Mitchell and Randy Torres, Dunkirk – I believe the academy nominated exactly the same films in both Sound categories in order to recognize the achievements of two different films in this area, that’s why I think it will be Nolan’s film that wins; still, I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes to Baby Driver as well.

Best Production Design: Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin and Shane Vieau, The Shape of Water – the production level with this one is quite impressive.

Best Costume Design: Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread – a movie set in the fashion world should have costumes that speak to its main premise, sadly it appears that this can be the only award PTA’s new masterpiece takes home.

Best Make Up and Hairstyling: Ivana Primorac, Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinkowski, Lucy Sibbick, Darkest Hour – just take a look at Gary Oldman’s appearance for this film and tell me this team doesn’t deserve an award.

Best Original Score: Alexander Desplat, The Shape of Water – Beautiful and subtle, Shape‘s score is mesmerizing; nonetheless, I would be very happy if Phantom Thread‘s Johnny Greenwood takes home the award.

Best Original Song: “Remember Me” from Coco – there isn’t much to say here, not much competition and one of Pixar’s most beloved works in recent memory.

Now, I can’t say much about the categories of Best Live-Action, Animated or Documentary Shorts, nor for Best Documentary Feature Film (though I think that will go in Agnes Varda’s Faces Places way), since I haven’t seen any of the nominees in the running. So now let’s move on to those categories where I can unendlessly ramble on.

Best Foreign Language Film

Always the more interesting category by far, at least compared to its “best” counterpart. It is kind of sad that these films are usualy the hardest ones to find, I still haven’t seen two of them (maybe I can do it before Sunday). So the nominees are, in the order I would rank them:

Haven’t seen: Lebanon’s The Insult, Hungary’s On Body and Soul.

3. Chile’s A Fantastic Woman: a great film dealing with real life issues, and one that portrays the struggles of the LGBT community in a more convincing way than another nominated, widely loved film this year.

2. Russia’s Loveless: a heart-breaking film about a family’s disintegration, its brutal and at times pretty depressing, but it shows Andrey Zvyagintsev at his strongest.

1. Sweden’s The Square: for those of you who saw my my list of 2017’s best films, you know how much I loved this one. It’s funny in innovative ways and yet manages to tell so much about modern society.

Predicted winner: everybody seems to have their money on A Fantastic Woman, which would be a great first win for Chile. Still, I’d love for The Square to win, but I wouldn’t be against a latinamerican film winning for a change.

Snubbed: Germany’s In the Fade, which made the shortlist and won the Golden Globe, nevertheless it failed to win the favour of the academy.

Best Animated Feature:

A category that is sadly reduced to its own thing, since animated films unfairly rarely score other “bigger” nominations. But who am I to speak, I’ve only seen two of these movies.

Haven’t seen: The Breadwinner, Ferdinand, The Boss Baby.

2. Loving Vincent: the first film to be fully painted, with 125 painters from over twenty different countries involved, who painted around 65,000 frames in the style of legendary artist Vincent van Gogh. It tells the story of the last days of the dutch painter, with an emphasis made on the circumstances of his death. Nevertheless, in spite of being a visual and technical marvel, the narrative ultimately falls shot.

1. Coco: Pixar does it again, with Toy Story director Lee Unkrich delivering one of their strongest films in year. Dealing with complex themes like death, the after-life and memory, all mixed to great music and the most striking CGI animation, all told through a heart-warming story that can relate to both kids and grown-ups.

Predicted winner: its always gonna be Pixar, though don’t underestimate Loving Vincent’s chances. There are some vocal supporters for that film, but it has hard to beat the reigning champion.

Snubbed: I’m never gonna stop saying this: The LEGO Batman Movie should have been up there!

Best Original Screenplay:

Haven’t seen: The Big Sick

4. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig): indie darling of the season, I have to admit I found it extremely overrated. Still, it is hard to deny that the screenplay does have a feeling of sincerity to it.

3. The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor): a very good movie with many attributes, but I wouldn’t say the screenplay is its strongest facet. The story is very engaging, but it still remains within the schackles of what David Bordwell would call “classical hollywood style/narration”, in which the plot is exclusively determined by causality and the characters are psychologically pretty straight forward. It is a nice story, but not nearly as inventive as other contenders.

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Misouri (Martin McDonagh): a great film with a pretty solid screenplay, packed with complex characters and actual themes. The screenplay is what deferiantiates this film from The Shape of Water, what makes this one kind of more unexpected and engaging. This might be the decisive factor in the two horse race for the big prize.

1. Get Out (Jordan Peele): Inventive, original and nuanced, Peele’s screenplay has everything that we should expect from a horror film. Packing a powerful message to today’s racial environment, while at the same time subverting its own genre and establishing itself as an instant classic, all thanks to the screenplay.

Predicted Winner: this is a tough one, since all this film have an actual chance at winning. I believe this prize could swing the momentum for either Shape or Three Billboards, though McDonagh’s film needs it more. It could also go in Get Out‘s way, a recognition to Peele’s great work (since he’s probably not getting best director). I’m gonna go with Three Billboards, with a second option to Get Out.

Snubbed: Phantom Thread, I, Tonya and Coco.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

5. Mudbound (Dee Rees, Virgil WIlliams): a very good film with a pretty good script. Racially charged, filled with conflict and real characters, the film ultimately feels oscar baity and forgettable.

4. Molly’s Game (Aaron Sorkin): to be honest, I was somewhat disappointed with Sorkin with this one. It was his directorial debut so he probably hat a lot in his mind, but I do feel that this screenplay didn’t have his usual bite like in other films.

3. Call Me by Your Name (James Ivory): the frontrunner for this category, Call Me by Your Name tells an emotional story, but the strength of this film lies rather in the aesthetic than the narrative. Still, the chances that the award goes to anyone other than James Ivory are looking slimmer by the day.

2. The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber): might not be the best screenplay ever made, but the vitality that this film brings to the story behind one of the most laughed-at movies in history make this a personal favourite.

1. Logan (James Mangold, Scott Frank, Michael Green): Ok, its the nerd in me, but Logan is one of the best superhero films of all time, and definitely one of the best films of 2017. Bringing a new breeze while beautifully and brutally saying goodbye to the franchise’s flag character, Mangold’s film went places most of the nominated pictures wouldn’t even dare to go.

Predicted Winner: its gonna be Call Me by Your Name, the others don’t really stand a chance.

Snubbed: little known, probably never stood a chance to land a nomination, but Lady Macbeth had one of the strongest adapted screenplays last year.

Best Supporting Actress:

5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water: Spencer is a great actress, but I felt that in this film her character was a little underdeveloped. Sure, that has nothing do with her performance, but it did limit her chances of making a bigger impression.

4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound: the highlight of that film, Mary J. Blige’s character is a loving mother who’d do anything for her family. You can see in her the struggle her character is facing, and its nothing short from heartbreaking.

3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird: also the highlight of her film, Metcalf also plays a mother, but in very different circumstances. Her relationship to her daughter is a central part of the movie, and that’s what lets her shine brightest.

2. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread: in a movie full of talent and interesting characters, Manville acts as the mysterious figure in the middle of it all that’s actually pulling the strings. She’s sharp, intelligent and an excellent counterbalance to Day Lewis and Krieps.

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya: this year’s frontrunner also has my vote. Janney stars as Tonya Harding’s mother, a strong and aggressive woman who’s there to push Tonya to her limits in order to get her very best. Janney is powerful and mesmerizing, and should definitely take that Oscar with her.

Predicted winner: as I said, Janney is the frontrunner, but Laurie Metcalf has pretty good chances of taking this one herself.

Snubbed: Catherine Keener deserved to be there for Get Out, as well as Michelle Pfeiffer for the controversial mother!, and even if it wasn’t a big film, Tilda Swinton in a double role in Okja also deserves recognition.

Best Supporting Actor:

Haven’t seen: Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project, Christopher Plummer in All the Money in the World.

3. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Misouri: starring as the dying Chief Willoughby, Harrelson gives a very solid performance in this one, he carries the angst and guilt of a man who knows his time is up. Being honest, I think his performance in War for the Planet of the Apes was a tad better, but of course that wasn’t gonna get nominated.

2. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water: serving the role of neighbour and best friend to Sally Hawkins’ protagonist, Jenkins captures the spirit of a sensitive old man who gets finally the impression of being alive and fighting for a good cause.

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Misouri: he is the frontrunner allright, and even though he’s the better one of the nominees I’ve seen, I’m still not that sold on the idea that Rockwell’s performance should be the one winning the Oscar. Nothing against Rockwell, he was great in the film, though maybe not that great as many people (including the academy) seem to think.

Predicted winner: Rockwell most likely, he has won every major award since he beginning of award season. I still think Willem Defoe stands a chance (even without seeing the film, though maybe I can get around it before Sunday), and there are some saying that Christopher Plummer should take it considering all the troubles the production went through with his character.

Snubbed: Quite a few, actually: Patrick Stewart for Logan, Michael Stuhlbarg for Call Me by Your Name, Barry Keoghan for The Killing of a Sacred Deer, heck, even Mark Hamill for The Last Jedi.

Best Actress:

5. Meryl Streep, The Post: Ok, I love Meryl Streep and I think she’s a wonderful actress, but every year we get the obligatory Meryl Streep nomination. She has already been nominated 21 times and won three of those. She was great in The Post, as usual, but the fact that she keeps getting nominated for only being Meryl Streep basically shuts off the chances of younger actresses who also deserve their place under the spotlight.

4. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird: Like I said, I wasn’t that impressed with this movie, and that extends to her protagonist. I’m not saying by any means that Ronan delivers a bad performance, she’s a great actress and this is probably one of her better acting moments. It is sadly trapped in a film that suffers from over-selling.

3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water: the center of her film. Hawkins delivers a captivating and human performance about a person without a voice, both literally and figuratively. She feels very real and sincere, and her portrayal of love is very powerful.

2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya: the protagonist of a movie that was sadly ignored in most categories, Robbie is one of the elements that make this film so great. The dynamic with Janney as her mother is hypnotizing, who knows if both co-stars can go home with a statue of their own? But for that to happen she must beat the frontrunner in this category.

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Misouri: McDormand is at the center as one of the strongest characters of her film, and with a movie so densely populated with different players that’s saying something. She embodies the anger and the aggresiveness she feels because of the injustice of her situation, but at the same time she shows how fragile and caring and capable of change she really is.

Predicted winner: it’s gonna be McDormand, and rightfully so.

Snubbed: Diane Kruger was wonderful in In the Fade, even if its foreign we sometimes get those cases; also Jennifer Lawrence should be up there for her role in mother! (though we can stupidly find her at the Razzies).

Best Actor:

Haven’t seen: Denzel Washington in Roman J. Isarel Esq..

4. Daniel Kaluyaa, Get Out: newcomer Kaluyaa is great in Get Out, especially in those scenes where he gets to act with his highly expressive eyes. It was a pleasant surprise that he got nominated, but most likely he will just stay by the honour of the nomination.

3. Timotheé Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name: also a newcomer, he delivers a pretty strong and heart-felt performance. His character faces the complexities of growing up and buidling a self-image, and Chalamet does his best (certainly better than his small but still ridiculous role in Lady Bird.)

2. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour: the frontrunner this year, probably as certain as it can get this year. Oldman gives a great performance, adding charm and life to a controversial historical figure. He deserves his Oscar, even if its only for the fact that he’s Gary Oldman and has never won an Oscar.

1. Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread: be it his final performance or not, Day Lewis is great in PTA’s latest film. The film is a deconstruction of his character, so he certainly has lots of screen time, and what he does with it is simply incredible. Day Lewis’ Reynolds Woodcock remains as one of the most interesting movie characters we got last year.

Predicted winner: it really is for Oldman to lose, and like I said, his award is long overdue. Still, there are some who are claiming Chalamet could bag this one.

Snubbed: Hugh Jackman for Logan; Andy Serkis for War of the Planet of the Apes, yes, even if its motion capture; and while his favour with Academy voters fell after allegations of sexual misconduct, separating the man from the art we have to admit that James Franco’s performance as Tommy Wiseau in The Disaster Artist deserves some recognition.

Best Director:

5. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird: sadly the only woman director on the running, her film ultimately failed to captivate me. I know it has its fans and Gerwig does a good job in her directorial debut, but I just can’t see it as Oscar caliber.

4. Jordan Peele, Get Out: also on his directorial debut, Peele gives his everything and creates a smart, modern and relevant thriller. Would be great if he won, but his odds are not looking that good.

3. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk: I’m pretty sure there are a bunch of fans calling for this to finally happen this year, but I don’t think it will. His direction at Dunkirk is excellent, creating more of a sensory experience instead of a narrative one.

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water: its almost a given that he’ll win by now, and no wonder, he delivers a great vision with his fantasy cold war era love story. The question is not if he wins, the question is wheather anyone can stop him from winning.

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread: he has virtually no chance at winning this year, but I still think he is the most deserving of the lot. His vision for Phantom Thread is hypnotizing and should get more recognition. He did sweep in as surprise nominee this year, who knows if he can also sweep in as a surprise winner?

Predicted winner: its del Toro’s to lose. If he does win, this will be the fourth time in five years that the award goes to a Mexican (Alfonso Cuarón won in 2014 for Gravity, Alejandro González Iñárritu won in 2015 and 2016 for Birdman and The Revenant respectively), so kudos to Mexico.

Snubbed: Martin McDonagh delivered what is probably his most accomplished film with Three Billboards; Dennis Villeneuve for Blade Runner 2049.

Best Picture:

The big one. We all know this prize is more about politics than it is about quality, and yet we all hold our breathe for this one.

9. The Post: two time Academy Award winner Steven Spielberg directs two time Academy Award winner Tom Hanks and three times Academy Award winner Meryl Streep in a political thriller based on a real story. It is a pretty good film, but you can’t go more Oscar bait than this.

8. Darkest Hour: speaking of Oscar bait, here we have the obligatory entry of a biopic of a historical figure who does something heroic, bonus points if its set in World War II. Beyond Oldman’s performance, there isn’t much going for this film. It was interesting, won’t deny that, but for a better depiction of the events in question go see Dunkirk.

7. Lady Bird: as you must’ve noticed by now, I’m not a fan of this film. To be honest, the problem doesn’t lie within the film itself, it rather lies on the whole hype surrounding it. With so many people calling it one of the best movies ever made, even achieving the highest score in the history of Rotten Tomatoes (and then later going down), I was rather disappointed with this one.

6. Call Me by Your Name: the LGBT movie of the year, as some call it. Call Me by Your Name is superbly shot and bolsters great performances from its international cast. Still, I had a feeling that it was lacking in conflict. Sure, there was some internal conflict by part of the protagonists, but given the controversial subject matter it appeared to live in a bliss. More than a depiction of a real situation, this film feels more like a utopia for the LGBT community that caters more to today’s politically correct landscape than to the time period in which it is actually set.

5. Dunkirk: Nolan’s experimental war film manages to avoid most clichés that plague this genre and even creates a new approach to said genre. Visually and technically the film is a marvel, and I expect it to take many of the technical awards. However, I don’t think this year’s best picture winner should be a movie about World War II.

4. The Shape of Water: one of the frontrunners this year, Del Toro’s film is great at creating a mystical atmosphere and telling a compelling story. It is beautifully shot and the craftmanship at the production levels is telling. It has a huge chance at winning Best Picture, but who knows if the academy will go for a fantasy film with a love scene that involves an anthropomorphic sea monster. (You can read my review on this film here)

3. Get Out: the rare film in the lot that actually tries to do someting new with its genre. What can I say now about Get Out hat hasn’t been said already? Peele’s film tackles a bunch of issues while crafting a smart and interesting story. It would be great if this one won Best Picture, would be a surprise for sure, but I wouldn’t count it out of the cards just yet.

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Misouri: the other film that actually has a chance at winning the award, Three Billboards goes political and tackles some of the themes that the academy voters love, but it still tells a very powerful story with characters that feel more human than you’d expect in such a crime drama. It has picked steam in recent weeks, winning the BAFTA and Golden Globe, but there are some detractors and the fact that it didn’t land a Best Director nomination hurts its chances.

1. Phantom Thread: in my opinion the best film in the running, unfortunately it doesn’t stand many chances for winning the big prize. Anderson’s film dissects complex power dynamics and gives an interesting spin at the end with its approach to toxic relationships, while driven by the powerful performances of its highly talented cast. Add to that great music, costume design and cinematography and you have a beautiful piece of filmmaking, that is sadly ignored by the academy because it doesn’t carry a political agenda like most other contenders. (you can see my review for this film here)

Predicted winner: its between Three Billboards and The Shape of Water. Del Toro’s film seemed poised to win the award a few months back, but McDonagh’s one is now on the front-seat, barely. With the tendency of the Academy in recent years to split Director and Picture, I can see Three Billboards pulling an Argo and winning Best Picture without a Director nomination. Still, Shape could do a major sweep and take this one with it, and don’t underestimate Get Out’s chances as a dark-horse entry.

Snubbed: even if they’re more nerdy stuff, Blade Runner 2049 and Logan deserve to be up there; also, I, Tonya very well deserved a nomination too.

Closing Thoughts

So the Academy Awards are Sunday night and Hollywood wears its fanciest dress for the ocassion. On the spotlight will be the #MeToo movement given today’s climate, so we can expect many speeches regarding the topic. Also, something that hasn’t been mentioned enough, this years Best Actress prize will be handed by last year’s Best Actor winner, namely Casey Affleck, who has been accused of sexual misconduct in the past. With the whole controversy of Hollywood’s numerous sex scandals still fresh in everyone’s minds, this is a little event that I’m morbidly waiting to see how it plays out.

On Sunday we’ll find out if my predictions were correct or horribly wrong. Until then, if you like the content of this blog please leave a like and share this with your friends and family. Until next time!