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Black Friday may not be the biggest, baddest shopping day of the year after all.

For the first time in 10 years, that title will likely be grabbed by the final Saturday before Christmas, a day that has become known in retail circles as Super Saturday.

With confidence in the U.S. economy surging, gas prices down 30% since Labor Day and many stores opening on Thanksgiving — thus eating into their Black Friday results — retail experts are forecasting that Saturday will be the biggest shopping day of the year.

So if you're heading out for some last minute gift-buying, take your elbow pads with you.

"I think it's going to be a gangbusters Saturday," said Jerry O'Brien, director of the Center for Retailing Excellence at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "I'm very confident it will be bigger than Black Friday."

So is Bill Martin, founder of ShopperTrak, a Chicago-based global analytics firm that has been out front in forecasting that Super Saturday will eclipse Black Friday for the first time in a decade.

Saturday is expected to generate about $10 billion in sales compared with $9.1 billion in sales on Black Friday.

"In that last weekend, retailers are going to push as much inventory out the door as they can," Martin said.

Spring merchandise will begin hitting shelves on Jan.3, he said.

National retailers all have either extended hours or door-buster specials — or both — planned for Saturday.

Menomonee Falls-based Kohl's Department Stores plans to have its stores open 24 hours a day beginning Friday until Christmas Eve and will have a number of promotions going during the weekend. "We definitely have a lot going on for this last-minute shopping period," said Ale Owens, a Kohl's spokeswoman.

The dramatic drop in gas prices will likely play a role in weekend spending, but the impact is difficult to quantify, Martin said.

"We know that when gas prices go down, we see more traffic in the stores," he said. "When they go up we see the opposite."

Whether that translates directly into bigger retail sales is a question that won't be answered until after the holiday season.

"We're still sticking to our 3.8% increase for November and December combined," compared with the same period in 2013, Martin said.

There will be bargains to be had, provided there is still merchandise available, O'Brien and Martin said.

"The one thing all retailers want to do is come out of the holidays clean on inventory if they can," O'Brien said. "So it is worth their while if they've got an overstock of something to try to make it a really good bargain before the holidays.

"They know their odds are better of selling it now," rather than after the holiday season.

"The flip side of that is most retailers have done a much better job of buying correctly the last few years, so there are less of those items that are in jeopardy of being left over," he added.

Folks who wait until the last minute to finish holiday shopping are betting that what they are looking for — or what someone has asked for as a gift — is in stock at a good price.

"That's where the gamble comes in — whether the item you want is one of those items that is still around to be a great deal the last week or not," O'Brien said.

Inventory missteps will be less likely this year, given how badly some retailers have been burned by such miscalculations in recent years, O'Brien said.

Still, any missteps will have some big markdowns associated with them.

"If a retailer has a lot of inventory, you are going to see really good discounts from them," Martin said. "But I think the inventory levels are modest this year. I don't think they are overstocked. So, I think we'll see deals on Super Saturday, but I don't think they will be as deep as we saw on the weekend surrounding Black Friday and Thanksgiving."

Retailers say they are ready for a blitz of shoppers.

"We are really seeing (holiday) business coming late," said Jill Soltau, a Wisconsin native who is president and chief merchandising officer for Green Bay-based Shopko stores. The company operates 323 stores in 21 states across the Midwest, mountain, north central and Pacific Northwest regions of the United States.

"Every day from now until Christmas will be important," Soltau said. "I anticipate Monday and Tuesday of next week also being very big days if trends are similar to how they were last year."

Soltau said she believes the company has found the right inventory balance for the season.

"Our inventories and stocks are in the best position they've been in in many years," Soltau said. "We have put a lot of emphasis on that. We're ready."

The weather is also likely to play a role in the Saturday shopping.

"It's not going to be miserably cold," O'Brien said. "I don't see any blizzards on the radar."

Warmer-than-normal temperatures have kept traffic at the Cabela's store in Richfield up in recent weeks, said Stephanie Grenzer, retail marketing manager of the store.

She expects shoppers to be waiting in line for the store to open on Saturday.

"We're lucky we haven't had any snowstorms," Grenzer said. "People aren't afraid to drive out in 40 degrees versus a snowstorm."

The high temperature in Milwaukee on Saturday is forecast to be 35 degrees.