The sun is out, and temperatures are climbing. But the start of summer also signals the start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters released their storm season outlook for the Atlantic and the Caribbean Thursday. The verdict:

"The outlook suggests we will have a near- or above-normal hurricane season," said Neil Jacobs, assistant secretary of Commerce for Environmental Prediction and Observation at NOAA.

Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

"We're not expecting it to be the most active on record. We're expecting an average season, which means a lot of storms forming in the Atlantic," said Gerry Bell, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Bell added that with a more active season, the Caribbean and East Coast of the United States are always at risk.

An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

.@FEMA_Dan : "As the federal government leans forward, we're urging the public to plan ahead for the upcoming hurricane season...we encourage everyone to check out https://t.co/YKsrn5yxUy." #HurricaneSeason #HurricaneOutlook pic.twitter.com/7gVWDMm9N4 — NWS (@NWS) May 24, 2018

While the Atlantic hurricane season does not officially start until June 1, investigators are already looking toward a weather disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico that could develop into the first named storm of the season--Alberto.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.

Earlier this year, hurricane researchers at Colorado State University predicted a slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2018, citing the relatively low likelihood of a significant El Nino as a primary factor.

El Nino, a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures, works to suppress the Atlantic hurricane season, explained Bell. At the same time, warmer sea surface temperatures serve to fuel hurricanes as they move across the ocean.

Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently near their long-term average values, according to the researchers at Colorado State.

NOAA officials said their fleet of earth-observing satellites is "more robust than ever," providing a comprehensive picture of weather throughout the Western Hemisphere, allowing forecasters to observe storms as they develop.

At the same time, Bell said the climate modeling technology has gotten increasingly more accurate.

"Climate models have advanced unbelievably in the past 10 years," he told reporters during a news conference at NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Fla., where the agency's fleet of "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft are based.

Last year, NOAA correctly predicted it would be an above-average hurricane season. There were 17 named storms and 10 hurricanes, including Harvey, Irma and Maria, which devastated parts of Texas, Florida and the Caribbean.

These are the names assigned to the tropical storms or hurricanes that may form in the Atlantic Ocean in 2018. (National Hurricane Center | NASA photo)

Back last May, before Memorial Day weekend, the long-range forecasters from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center predicted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. By early June, forecasters from The Weather Channel and hurricane experts at Colorado State were also predicted an above-normal hurricane season.

Irma reached Category 5 status and packed sustained winds of 185 mph at its peak, Harvey reached Category 4 status, and so did Hurricane Jose when it roared through the Caribbean. The latest monster in the Atlantic is Hurricane Maria, which mushroomed into a Category 5 storm with rare 175 mph winds before slamming into Puerto Rico as a Category 4 behemoth, causing massive destruction and knocking out power to the entire island.

The most active Atlantic hurricane seasons during recent years were in 2010 and 2012. Each of those years, there were 19 named storms, with 12 strengthening into hurricanes in 2010 and 10 becoming hurricanes in 2012, including Sandy, which caused widespread destruction in New Jersey.

Ted Sherman may be reached at tsherman@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @TedShermanSL. Facebook: @TedSherman.reporter. Find NJ.com on Facebook.