A London-based thinktank has said Russia is risking military escalation across Europe with Cold War-style "brinkmanship".

The European Leadership Network (ELN) examined 39 incidents of military encounters between Russian planes and boats, and Nato forces and allies, in the last eight months to conclude that the "highly disturbing" violations of national airspace had caused several incidents where military confrontation or the loss of life was narrowly avoided.

Its report listed near-misses including violations of national airspace, emergency scrambles, narrowly avoided mid-air collisions, close encounters at sea and simulated bombing attacks stretching from the North Sea to the Baltic and Arctic regions and along the US coast.

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A spokesperson for the ELN said: “Even though direct military confrontation has been avoided so far, the mix of more aggressive Russian posturing and the readiness of Western forces to show resolve increases the risk of unintended escalation and the danger of losing control over events.”

The Russian su-27 fighter jet photographed next to a Swedish intelligence plane.

A full list of 39 incidents since March 2014

High Risk Incidents

On 3 March 2014 a close encounter occurred between a SAS passenger plane taking off from Copenhagen and a Russian reconnaissance aircraft which did not transmit its position 50 miles south east of Malmo. A collision was apparently avoided thanks only to good visibility and the alertness of the passenger plane pilots. The SAS 737 plane was carrying 132 passengers to Rome.

On 5 September 2014 an Estonian security service operative, Eston Kohver, was abducted by Russian agents from an Estonian border post, on Estonian, and therefore NATO, territory. He was later taken to Moscow and accused of espionage. The incident itself involved communications jamming and the use of smoke grenades, and took place immediately after President Obama’s visit to the region and his repetition of security assurances to the Baltic States.

Between 17-27 October, 2014 a major submarine hunt by Swedish authorities was prompted by credible intelligence reports of “underwater activity” in the Stockholm archipelago in Swedish territorial waters. Supreme Commander General Sverker Göranson underlined that Sweden was ready to use “armed force” to bring the vessel to the surface if necessary. Russia issued denials and attempted to ridicule Swedish concerns. The major search operation stopped on Oct. 24.

Serious Incidents with Escalation Risk

On 12 April 2014 an unarmed Russian fighter aircraft made 12 passes of the American warship the USS Cook in the Black Sea. Such aggressive behaviour, if repeated by an armed aircraft, could have resulted in the ship commander targeting the aircraft in an act of self-defence.

On April 23 2014 an armed Russian fighter undertook very threatening manoeuvres in the vicinity of an American reconnaissance aircraft in the Sea of Okhotsk. These manoeuvres involved demonstrating that the fighter was armed. Such behaviour is far removed from what would be expected in a relatively routine encounter.

In June 2014 armed Russian aircraft approached the heavily populated Danish island of Bornholm before breaking off in what appears to have been a simulated attack. The Danish intelligence service described the incident as “of a more offensive character than observed in recent years.”

On 16 July 2014 an armed Russian aircraft intercepted a Swedish surveillance plane conducting operations between Gotland and Latvia in international airspace, and flew within 10 metres of the plane. This indicated a far more aggressive approach to intercepting aircraft than in previous encounters.

On 18 July 2014 an American surveillance plane conducting operations near Kaliningrad was chased into Swedish air-space after being approached by Russian fighters. This evasive action took place without Sweden’s prior approval that the US aircraft could enter Swedish airspace.

In early September, 2014 Russian strategic bombers in the Labrador Sea near Canada practiced cruise missile strikes on the United States. The Russian aircraft stayed outside of Canada’s ADIZ but this was still a provocative move in light of the NATO summit ongoing at the time. Cruise missiles launched from the Labrador Sea would have Ottawa, New York, Washington, Chicago, and the Norfolk Naval Base in range.

On 7 September 2014 HMCS Toronto (a frigate) was buzzed by a Russian aircraft in the Black Sea, with the plane coming within 300 metres of the warship. HMCS Toronto locked its radar on the Russian plane but took no further action as the aircraft was not armed. This incident coincided with larger Russian naval combat training activities near Sevastopol. Such aggressive behaviour, if repeated by an armed aircraft, could have resulted in the ship commander targeting the aircraft in an act of self-defence.

On 17 September 2014 two Russian military aircraft crossed into Swedish air-space south of the island of Oland. The Russian Su-24 bombers intentionally violated Swedish airspace possibly to test the capabilities of the air defence system strengthened after previous incidents. The Swedish Foreign Minister described the incident as the ‘most serious aerial incursion’ in years.

On 19 September 2014 Russian officers detained a Lithuanian shipping vessel in international waters in the Barents Sea, subsequently towing it to Murmansk. This represented a clear escalation in Russian attempts at the provocation and intimidation of the Baltic States.

On 3 October 2014 a Russian fighter flew “within metres” of Swedish surveillance aircraft in the Baltic in an incident deemed “unusually provocative”. A collision between the aircraft would have had serious repercussions for bilateral relations and increased military tensions across the entire Baltic area.

From 28-30 October 2014, Russia conducted a major air exercise in the North Sea, Atlantic, Black Sea and Baltic Sea. In a series of developments, aircraft from NATO states and partners tracked Russian long-range bombers conducting missions across this entire area, including a large formation of Russian fighters and bombers conducting missions over the Baltic Sea. All missions were conducted in international airspace but their scale and use of different kinds of aircraft and different zones of operation has added significantly to increased tensions between NATO and Russia.

Near Routine Incidents