Young African-American males experience a high incarceration rate. Progressives, conservatives, and libertarians each have a

desired cause for this.

Progressives: racism in the criminal justice system

Conservatives: high propensity of young African-American males to commit crimes

Libertarians; the war on drugs

Progressives prefer the oppressor-oppressed axis, which makes racism the desired cause. Conservatives are most comfortable with the civilization-barbarism axis, which makes criminal behavior the preferred cause. Libertarians prefer the freedom-coercion axis, which makes the war on drugs the preferred cause.

I claim that trying to argue that one of these is the cause is an unwinnable argument. Each of these causal forces has an element of truth, or at least plausibility. The chances are slim of coming up with an empirical analysis that decisively rules in favor of one cause and rules out all other causes.

In general, an unwinnable argument about causality is any argument in which one tries to affirm that X is the sole cause of Y or that X is not at all a cause of Y under circumstances of high causal density.

For example, arguments about the role of financial deregulation in the financial crisis of 2008 tend to be unwinnable. The case for seeing financial deregulation as the sole cause is compelling only to people who are inclined to espouse it. The case for seeing financial deregulation as not a factor at all is compelling only to those of us who are inclined to emphasize other causes.

Some further claims:

1. When there is a desired cause (meaning a cause that fits well with one’s political axis in the three-axes model, chances are the issue involves an unwinnable argument.

2. If your objective is to win an unwinnable argument, then you will tend to engage in normative sociology. To turn your desired cause into the cause, you have to filter out evidence that might support another causal factor and only discuss evidence that supports your desired cause.

It hardly requires saying that I think that it is counterproductive to try to win an unwinnable argument. It is almost as counterproductive to try to reason with someone who is convinced that they can win an unwinnable argument.

I am not saying that it is counterproductive to try to make an argument for or against something being a causal factor. However, I think that it does help to keep in mind that when a desired causal factor is involved it is challenging to remain objective in assessing the evidence.

There is a Cowen-Hanson paper Are Disagreements Honest? that you should read if you have not done so already. One of the reasons that disagreements can persist is because the protagonists engage in normative sociology.