If you are dreaming of a white Christmas, you are going to almost need a Christmas miracle. The weather pattern is going to produce warmer than average temperatures up to Christmas.

It’s hard to have a white Christmas with warmer than average temperatures. It can happen, but odds are against it.

Here’s the temperature probability forecast for December 22 to December 26.

Almost all of the U.S. is expecting temperatures to average warmer than normal for December 22 to December 26

This temperature forecast gives almost all of the U.S., with the exception of Florida, a good chance at warmer than average temperatures. Michigan has between a 40 percent and 50 percent chance temperatures will be warmer than we normally expect. That still gives us a 33 percent chance of normal temperatures and a 17 percent chance it will be colder than average.

The general weather pattern looks like days with highs in the 30s to low-40s in Lower Michigan.

If there is a chance at a white Christmas, it comes this weekend during the ending period of a storm system.

Forecast map for 7 a.m. Saturday, December 22, 2018

The GFS model and other models show a storm system in the eastern U.S. this coming Friday through Sunday. There is mostly warm air in place, which will produce mostly rain. But on the back side of the storm on Saturday, rain could change to snow over Lower Michigan. This would be our hope for an inch or two of snow. The question then is would it stay on the ground with temperatures just above freezing going into Christmas.

I think the best way to see if we will have the official one inch on the ground white Christmas is to look at predicted snow cover for Christmas Day.

Snow cover forecast for December 25, 2018 shows limited areas of a white Christmas.

The above graphic is the snow cover forecast for midday Christmas. Northern Lower and the U.P. would be the only places in Michigan with snow on the ground. Much of the Great Lakes region would have a green Christmas.

Now the good news of a green Christmas is travel conditions won’t be horrible. Flights into Chicago, Detroit, Atlanta and many other busy airports won’t have weather troubles if this weather pattern holds.

This is an early look at Christmas, as it is over a week away. We will all have to dream hard about a white Christmas. Only a few changes in the weather pattern could make our dreams come true. Right now though, I’d plan on a green Christmas across most of Lower Michigan.