Had a nice note from The Kouk today offering a wager on my home price call as featured in 60 Minutes yesterday. He did not disclose he was to make this offer public, whatever I decided to do!

Anyhow this was my reply.

Hi Stephen, thanks for your message. I appreciate the offer. However, I do not make bets, ever. A point of principle. However, an alternative offer. Would you care to participate in a discussion on the subject of home prices, and where they may go – for my YouTube Channel? I have had Steve Keen on among others, but so far have not been able to get a coherent point of view around why prices will not fall as far or as fast. I would love to present a balanced set of discussions. I am of course data driven. My genuine wish is to foster open debate, not peddle a specific viewpoint. My channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/WalkTheWorldDFA As you say, context is everything, and my scenario 4 – which is the one 60 minutes went with was predicated on the assumption that the US economy would flag (inverted yield curve and all) and this would lead to a global fall, throttling interbank lending, etc. etc.

I rate it 20%, and it is not my central scenario. My best call would be in the region of 15-20% from top, over 2-3 years, but with some risk of a worse outcome. Nine chose not to cover these alternatives, though I went through each in the recording… I believe 2019 will be the critical testing year one way or the other. If this would be of interest, I can record via Skype, so it would be easy to set up. Let me know…. Anyhow, I appreciate your taking the time to message me, and we could certainly discuss your offer and my reasons why I did not take it up, during the show, if you like.

He declined my invite to debate the question. So, open to other “property bulls” to debate with me – on data please – so far no takers…

Always looking for good informed content. Wherever it may come from…

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