When it comes to upsets in college football, I don't mind being wrong. It happens a lot. That's the game in picking against favorites. I fear missing on unexpected upsets entirely -- upset FOMO, if you will.

Enter South Carolina's 20-17 double-overtime win over No. 10 Georgia. I don't know how many people -- besides South Carolina players and a few die-hards -- saw that one coming. But if you had the Gamecocks straight up, good on you. Still, Week 7 was a solid week for the underdog around these parts. Specifically, moneyline picks went 2-1. Not too shabby. Now we turn our attention to Week 8, the official start of the second half of the season where a couple of road favorites are in precarious spots.

Each week, I'll give you the top five upset alert games based on matchups, injuries/suspensions and other factors. But in the spirit of the upset, I generally avoid games where lines are within a touchdown, though there will be some exceptions. Similarly, I'll only go with moneyline picks when the payout is around 2:1 -- maybe a little less, definitely when it's more.

Week 7 results

ATS: 1-1

SU: 2-0

ML: 2-1

Overall results

ATS: 11-7

SU: 11-7

ML: 5-7

No. 9 Florida at South Carolina

When: Saturday, noon ET | Where: Columbia, South Carolina | Line: Florida -7.5

Why it's listed: This is a bruising stretch for the Gators. It's the second of two conference road games and part of a four-game stretch featuring three ranked opponents. Also, Gamecocks coach Will Muschamp has been a thorn in the side of his former employer ever since arriving in Columbia in 2016.

South Carolina's key to the game: Getting quarterback Ryan Hilinski back is a big deal. If you're going to move the ball and score against one of the nation's best defenses, having Hilinksi is your only option.

Florida's key to the game: Getting back to winning on first and second downs is huge. You can't even say Florida was bad on third downs against LSU because the Tigers only converted one attempt ... but on only four tries. South Carolina doesn't have LSU's offensive efficiency, though.

Pick: Tough spot here for both teams. Since LSU didn't even hit 50 plays last week, I don't reckon Florida's defense will be tired. And while it's impressive that South Carolina got one of the SEC East's favorites, I don't know if they'll get two back-to-back. Either way, this one has ugly written all over it. ATS: South Carolina, SU: Florida

When: Saturday, noon ET | Where: Lubbock, Texas | Moneyline: Iowa State -273, Texas Tech +221

Why it's listed: Iowa State follows up its second-longest conference road trip at West Virginia with its longest at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have hit a new gear with quarterback Jett Duffey, and could have (should have?) beat Baylor last week.

Texas Tech's key to the game: Can the Red Raiders defense neutralize Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy in the run game? They've already allowed at least one rushing touchdown against Khalil Tate, Jalen Hurts and Charlie Brewer. Purdy leads the Cyclones with six rushing touchdowns.

Iowa State's key to the game: Duffey is averaging nearly 400 yards of total offense in his two starts, but he's at his weakest when forced to throw long on third downs (50 percent completion rate, one interception).

Pick: Both teams are playing well over the past couple of weeks, but the thought of consecutive long conference road trips would worry me. There are a couple of spots for "schedule losses" on Iowa State's schedule, and this is one of them. Texas Tech +221

No. 17 Arizona State at No. 13 Utah

When: Saturday, 6 p.m. ET | Where: Salt Lake City, Utah | Line: Utah -13.5

Why it's listed: You want to know who's been great -- I mean great -- as a dog? Herm Edwards. Per ESPN's Chris Fallica, the Sun Devils are 8-3 ATS with six outright wins as a dog under Edwards. Three times this year already (against Michigan State, Cal and Washington State), Arizona State has won outright as a dog -- and two of those were on the road.

Arizona State's key to the game: Both of these teams will play great defense and run the ball. That's who they are. But for Arizona State, specifically, receiver Brandon Aiyuk needs a few field-flipping catches. Of his 31 grabs on the year, 22 have come around midfield or in ASU territory. He's a big target when you need a play.

Utah's key to the game: Use that defensive front to slow down running back Eno Benjamin. He's been the Sun Devils most reliable offensive weapon, but Utah leads the Pac-12 in run defense. That'll put more pressure on frosh QB Jayden Daniels. He's been a nice surprise this year, but his two worst games came, as you'd expect, in ASU's two road games.

Pick: I'll take Arizona State and the points against two touchdowns for Utah. But the Utes aren't as limited offensively as Michigan State and Cal were (remember: that's when Bears QB Chase Garbers got hurt). The law of averages starts to take over here. ATS: Arizona State, SU: Utah

Tulane at Memphis

When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET | Where: Memphis, Tennessee | Moneyline: Memphis -188, Tulane +158

Why it's listed: Warning, hipster college football opinion incoming: I've been banging the Willie Fritz drum for a couple of years now, and this might finally be that pain-in-the-rear team for which I've been looking. They match up well against a vulnerable Memphis squad, and this might be the last time for a while I'd feel good about taking the ML on the Green Wave. That back-end schedule gets real tough, real quick.

Tulane's key to the game: The Green Wave have a nice pass defense, and just like Temple did, there's an opportunity to force Memphis quarterback Brady White to win the game with his arm. Tulane can lean on that.

Memphis' key to the game: The Tigers have ball security problems, and they were no more apparent than in the loss to Temple. Four turnovers is how you lose pretty much any game. At this point in the season, I don't know if there's a "fix" for that, but it's worth noting Tulane is the AAC's best team in holding on to the ball.

Pick: It's not as high of a payout as I would normally include, but Tulane has something cooking and it smells good enough that I'd take a decent ML on 'em. Tulane +158

When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET | Where: San Jose, California | Line: San Diego State -7.5

Why it's listed: Fun fact: the Aztecs have played in 12 games decided by no more than one possession dating back to last season, including three this year. Other than Eastern Michigan, perhaps no team in the FBS plays by the skin of its teeth quite like Rocky Long's group.

San Jose State's key to the game: The numbers tell you the Spartans are terrible at stopping the run -- they're 11th in the Mountain West -- but that's deceiving. Nearly 30 percent of the yards and almost half of touchdowns allowed on the season came against Air Force. San Diego State has a run-heavy offense but rank last in the conference in yards per rush (3.03) and tied for last with five touchdowns.

San Diego State's key to the game: The Aztecs lead the Mountain West in yards per pass attempt allowed. Win your standard downs, and this team should be in great shape to play the low-scoring, rock fight type of football it loves.

Pick: For as close as San Diego State plays these types of games, it's been very good as a favorite this year. San Jose State is improved, but that Aztecs defense is a lot to handle. ATS: San Jose State, SU: San Diego State

So which teams should you back in Week 8 of the college football season? And which national title contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine now to see who wins and covers every single FBS matchup, all from the model that has returned over $4,200 in profit to $100 bettors on top-rated spread picks over the last four seasons.

