Thousands of Irish supporters are now faced with the challenge of swapping their quarter final tickets with other supporters from Japan and Scotland. Not many would have predicted a second place finish in Pool A for Joe Schmidt’s side, and the ticket swaps could be quite a logistical challenge for fans, however it pales in comparison to the test the team will face on Saturday against the All Blacks, who have cruised through their three pool games in this world cup, albeit two of them were against far less than equal opposition. New Zealand look to have hardly moved out of second gear since their impressive victory against the Springboks, and the shear number of tries they’ve scored in the subsequent two games must surely put some concern in the Irish coaching staff’s minds.

Ireland’s defence will be crucial this weekend, and it needs some improving. In the world cup so far they have only conceded two tries which, on paper is excellent, however they have only really played one match that really tested them and they lost to Japan 19-12. While they haven’t leaked tries in the tournament, there have been signs that under more pressure this defence might not hold so firm.

Ireland are vulnerable when they defend rucks in the middle of the field, they get numbers mismatched on either side of the ruck, and this leaves them vulnerable. 3 minutes into the Japan game this happened, Labuschagne carried and got momentum, Ireland didn’t correct for the lack of numbers and only for the bounce of the ball, Matsushima would have scored from the grubber kick down the touch line.

6 vs 4 man overlap on the near side creates the opportunity for Matsushima

This kind of broken, unpredictable play is where the All Blacks excel, and at times the brave blossoms have resembled the Kiwis with the speed, width and accuracy they have shown in attack. Against South Africa, New Zealand scored both of their tries from recovered box kicks by Aaron Smith. The first score showed how quickly they can cut a team open, going from contesting a high ball on one touchline in their own half, to sprinting down the other touchline deep into the Springbok 22 in a matter of seconds. They recycled incredibly quickly, and had stretched the defence so much that Beauden Barrett was able to run right through the centre to set up George Bridge under the posts.

What has been apparent is the line speed Ireland have lacked when under pressure. Against Japan they made a lot of soak tackles, giving up yards on almost every phase that the Japanese forwards carried. And on many occasions if the Irish defence did come up fast, the outside defenders simply didn’t match the pace of the inside to close the door and the ball carrier was able to ship the ball on to the outside man who had ample time and space to continue the forward momentum, nullifying the inside defender’s work and actually making them have to work even harder to get back.

This lack of line speed was very obvious in the 58th minute when Japan had a scrum just inside the Irish 22. They crashed it up, gaining immediate go forward ball, then switched the play at pace after recycling the ball so quickly. The Irish forwards were still out of position and by the time they were set, Japan had an overlap on Ireland’s 5 metre line and showed great skill to get the ball right out to the touchline to Kenki Fukuoka who was able to finish well in the corner.

Example of the variation in line speed across the Irish defence

Comparatively, South Africa at times presented the All Blacks with a similar picture in defence, giving them plenty of opportunity to spread the ball to the wings when pressurised in the middle of the field. The example given below is just two phases before New Zealand score their second try of the match through Scott Barrett; his Brother Beauden slings a ball out to the touchline where Ardie Savea is waiting, who makes a few yards with quick feet before being tackled. This width stretches the defence, causing Faf De Klerk to then shoot out of the line, which leaves them short numbered in the next phases, allowing Anton Lienert-Brown to make a break through a back-tracking defence, finally offloading to Barrett for the score.

South Africa with a similar defensive shape against New Zealand

While this soft outside defence doesn’t usually lead to a score off first phase, what it does is put the attack on the front foot, with the defence then scrambling to make the tackle, and this snowballs into the next phases, which against the best front-foot attacking team in the world, is fatal.

As mentioned earlier, New Zealand have been using the excellent box kicking abilities of Aaron Smith a lot so far in the tournament to great effect. Ireland’s aerial abilities will be of utmost importance in not giving possession back to New Zealand easily. Kearney comes back into the team, and although he’s not the most exciting attacking option, he’s the safest pair of hands Ireland have in the air.

In essence, what is most difficult about playing the All Blacks is that it is really very difficult to predict and figure out how they will play, you only know they will play well. They have outstanding variety in their play, they have forwards who resemble backs, Ardie Savea is almost like having a third centre at times, with an incredible eye for a gap and quick feet as well.

Ireland have their work cut out for them, but having won 2 of their last 3 meetings, they certainly have a fighting chance. This is not an autumn international however, and in a world cup quarter final, New Zealand are a completely different proposition.