U.S. stocks will return at least 10 percent in 2012, beating foreign markets for a third year, while Treasury yields climb, according to BlackRock Inc.’s Bob Doll.

The nation’s gross domestic product will expand by 2 percent to 2.5 percent, while earnings trail analyst estimates for the first time since the last recession, Doll said in a statement released at a BlackRock event in New York today. He is the chief investment officer for global equities at the world’s biggest asset manager.

Doll said in January 2011 that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index would end the year at 1,350 or higher, U.S. economic growth would increase to almost 4 percent and the unemployment rate would drop to about 9 percent. GDP expanded 1.8 percent last year, according to the median economist projection, the jobless rate retreated to 8.6 percent and the stock index ended the year at 1,257.60.

Forecasters at securities firms are more conservative on U.S. stocks than any time in seven years, predicting the S&P 500 will rise 6.9 percent in 2012 as budget deficits around the world limit gains. The benchmark gauge will climb to 1,344 after it was virtually unchanged in 2011 and the U.S. beat every equity market in the developed world except Ireland, according to the average forecast of 12 strategists tracked by Bloomberg.

Doll said today that the S&P 500 may exceed 1,350 this year. It fell 0.8 percent to 1,267.36 at 10:01 a.m. New York time. While Europe will experience a recession, the region’s sovereign-debt crisis will ease, he said.