You’ve heard this before. So feel free to proceed with skepticism.

By all reasonable accounts and predictions, this will be a slower job market for high-end college football jobs. There are only two marquee jobs that can be considered reasonably hot – USC and Auburn – and the rest of the potentials are the flotsam and jetsam jobs that open with the predictability of the tides.

But in terms of marquee jobs that drive the market and cause ripples through the industry, there aren’t many on the landscape. Interviews with agents, search firm executives and athletic directors across the industry yielded a consensus that the market itself could still be active, with about 20 jobs opening. (According to NCAA data, there’s been an average of 23 job changes the last four years.)

But the thrust of those numbers are expected to come from the Mountain West, Conference USA and some low-end Big Ten gigs. “It’s going to be slow,” said a veteran industry source. “If Clay Helton and Gus Malzahn go 9-3, it’s really going to be really slow.”

With the NFL looking more like college football, the best chance for high-end openings may come from the NFL-upward mobility of intriguing coaches like Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley, Baylor’s Matt Rhule, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell and Florida’s Dan Mullen. “The only chance it gets really interesting in college is if guys go pro or a high-end guy makes a move,” said another industry source. “It could be pretty boring.”

Here are the rest of the jobs in the crosshairs in college football this season, broken down by which are hot and which are worth monitoring.

HOT SEAT

ACC

HOT

None. The general expectation will be for the ACC to sit tight this year, as Louisville, Miami, Georgia Tech and UNC all opened up last season.

WORTH MONITORING

FLORIDA STATE – This will be the only ACC job that can be considered moderately hot. This may not be fair to Willie Taggart, who has a buyout of nearly $18 million and inherited a scarecrow offensive line and plenty of academic issues. It’s more of a nod to the administrative muddle at FSU, which has an interim athletic director and would want a permanent one before any change was made.

Do we believe that the FSU officials who’ve spent the offseason saying they understand what a mess Taggart inherited have enough juice to see him through a season of struggle? At FSU, the significant presidential and booster influence carry more sway more than jargon from the athletic department. The fact that former AD Stan Wilcox, who hired Taggart, left FSU for the NCAA should make Taggart uneasy if the tenor of the losses are the same this season. A key metric for FSU this year will be penalties, as Taggart’s team was dead last year in all college football with 9.17 per game. FSU’s significant financial issues still make any move unlikely.

VIRGINIA TECH – This job is much like FSU – likely a year away from any significant heat. The buyout of $15 million assures that Justin Fuente is safe, but there are serious questions about the long-term viability of his staff. With the dips from 10 wins to 9 to 6, another mediocre season will lead Fuente and Tech administrators to some soul searching. And if there’s no uptick this season, replacing retiring DC Bud Foster with a high-end candidate – Fuente’s immediate priority – could be tricky sledding. Tech’s got an easy schedule and plays on the right side of the ACC. There’s no danger here, but there are a lot of eyes on how this season will play out, especially after a rash of transfers. The whole league is curious what we’ll see from Tech when they open at Boston College.

BIG 12

HOT

None. After Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech and West Virginia all flipped last year, everyone is safe.

WORTH MONITORING

There’s a good chance there will be some upward mobility openings in the Big 12 in the near future. Baylor’s Matt Rhule has been deep at NFL openings the past two years. Iowa State’s Matt Campbell should be on USC’s short list if they finally break away from the coaches with ties to the program. The NFL will have its eyes on Lincoln Riley, especially if the Cowboys job opens. If Kliff Kingsbury can become an NFL head coach with a 19-35 Big 12 record, more hires from the league may follow.

Story continues