PCs Lead

Volatile Electorate suggests almost anything could happen on June 7

Toronto, May 30th - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 2602 Ontario voters, amongst those decided and leaning, 4 in 10 (39%) say they support the Progressive Conservatives. A third (35%) say they are supporting the NDP, while one-fifth (19%) say they are supporting the Ontario Liberal Party.

Few support either the Green Party (5%) or another party (2%).

Conservatives move into a majority

Based on these results, we project the PCs to win a majority with 77 seats. The NDP would serve as official opposition with 41 seats, and the Liberals would win 6 seats.

Horwath Approval Steady, but disapproval up

Kathleen Wynne’s approval sits at one-quarter (23%), up four points since our last poll (May 23: 19%), while her disapproval drops four points (65%) (May 23: 69%). 1 in 10 say they do not know (12%). Her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -42, an improvement of 8 since May 23rd (-50)

Doug Ford’s approval sits at a third (30%), similar to his approval when last we polled (May 23: 32%), with half still (53%) saying they disapprove (May 23: 51%). About one-fifth (17%) say they do not know. His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -23, worsening by four points since May 23rd (-19)

Andrea Horwath’s approval sits at 4 in 10 (40%), similar to her approval when we last polled (May 23: 43%), with a third (32%) saying they disapprove, up six points (May 23: 26%). About one-quarter (28%) say they do not know. Her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is +8, worsening by nine points since May 23rd (+17)

Horwath and Ford tied for best Premier

A third (30%) say Andrea Horwath would make the best Premier, while a similar proportion (29%) say this of Doug Ford.

Kathleen Wynne is seen as best premier by one-sixth (16%), a similar proportion to those who say none (17%). 1 in 10 (9%) say they do not know.

“As we enter the final days of the campaign, it looks like things are just getting started,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. "The NDP had the momentum but seem to have stalled in the aftermath of a strong performance by Kathleen Wynne in the debate. The PC numbers under Ford have rebounded and they now have him poised for the Premier’s chair. The only thing that’s certain is that the future of Ontario will be decided in the next seven days.”

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.