Donald Trump’s determination to pursue a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran was most apparent when he ordered the assassination of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, called for the destruction of Iranian cultural sites, ramped up sanctions on the regime and refused to honour Iraq’s desire to have a country free of American influence.

In justifying their confrontational strategy, Trump and his Secretary of State Michael Pompeo have drawn attention to the Iranian regime’s increasing influence in the region and its moral bankruptcy, most evident, they claim, when its forces accidentally, and initially denied, shooting down Ukraine Airlines Flight 752.

This tragic loss is reminiscent of a similar event 32 years ago, when USS Vincennes blew up Iran Air Flight 655 over Iranian territorial waters, killing all 290 passengers. The U.S. government never admitted legal responsibility and initially denied it had deliberately targeted a commercial aircraft.

For Canada, the fallout from Soleimani’s assassination and the death of 57 Canadians on Flight 752 is significant for several reasons. Soleimani’s killing has expanded the conflict to include Iran’s proxies, ISIS and various militias within Iraq. As a result, the allies’ Iraqi training mission has been indefinitely suspended.

As a contributor to that mission, Canada deployed 500 military personnel to Iraq and throughout the region. Soleimani’s assassination has not only put Canadian soldiers and diplomats lives at risk but, as is now clear, ordinary Canadians as well.

More importantly, with escalation now underway lines have been drawn in ways that Canada most likely did not anticipate in agreeing to join the training mission when Stephen Harper was PM. Not only has the Iraqi parliament requested a withdrawal of U.S. forces from the country but hostile Iraqi militias continue to target allied bases, making it impossible for countries like Canada to do their job.

Should Canadian forces be asked to stay in the region and help the U.S. in its war against Iran that would be a significant shift in policy for the Trudeau government.

These problems generate uncertainty about why Canada is there in the first place. Our presence in Iraq, for example, was intended to train and equip the Iraq and Kurdish security forces to withstand the resurgence of the Islamic State. But its underlying purpose has always lacked clarity and direction.

Recall that shortly after becoming prime minister Justin Trudeau assured Canadians that our forces were no longer in harm’s way, a criticism that was levelled at Harper when it was revealed that military personnel were taking and returning fire. In 2018, Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan announced Canada would extend our mission in Iraq until fall 2019, though he failed to provide any indication of what we or our allies would be doing after that.

Now we know. In fact, even if Canada’s leaders were not privy to the exact timing and location of Soleimani’s assassination it was understood that Soleimani was in America’s crosshairs for some time.

By moving B52 strategic bombers to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, Trump has indicated a willingness to target Iran unilaterally, leaving Canada little room to promote a de-escalation in tensions. The problem is that the U.S. places far greater importance on ensuring its own security regardless of any collateral damage that may ensue.

Indeed, if anything, by following the U.S. lockstep on its Middle East agenda, Canada is worse off through deeper and closer integration with the U.S. military mindset. This is because America has far more special forces deployed abroad than it does diplomats. Its kinetically driven foreign policy is akin to a very large hammer in search of nails. Absent any efforts to reinvigorate diplomacy and Justin Trudeau’s aspirations to strengthen a rules-based international order look very, very weak.

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Clearly the status quo is unreasonable. A key test of Trudeau’s resolve will be the position he takes on the looming U.S.-Iran war. Due to our lack of a diplomatic presence in Iran, Trudeau will not have much influence over the unfolding crisis.

Indeed, unlike Jean Chrétien, who chose not to take sides during the U.S. invasion of Iraq, Trudeau might be compelled to redouble Canadian efforts and commit to yet another American war, forgetting, perhaps, the sad lessons from our failed mission to Afghanistan – the longest in Canadian military history.

David Carment is a CGAI fellow at the School of International Affairs at Carleton University.

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