SILVIO BERLUSCONI’S position in Italian politics has been enfeebled since the ignominious end of his fourth government in 2011. He remains the leader of Forza Italia, the movement that was his springboard into politics 23 years ago. But the party currently polls less than half the 30% it mustered at the height of its popularity in the early 2000s. Mr Berlusconi himself has a criminal record: he was convicted of tax fraud in 2013. And in September, he will be 81 years old. Yet pundits increasingly see the ageing TV-and-property magnate re-emerging as a force in the country’s politics. Could Italian voters really hand power back to a man widely viewed in the rest of Europe as either a buffoon or a crook?

Because of his conviction, Mr Berlusconi cannot stand for parliament until 2019. He has appealed to the European Court of Human Rights, but the judges may not rule on his case before Italy's next general election, which has to be held by next May. So the chances of Mr Berlusconi returning to parliament, let alone government, are slim. But the law cannot prevent him from campaigning for his party, and in any case the real power in Italy often rests with party leaders who do not necessarily sit in the legislature or the cabinet. The current speculation over Mr Berlusconi centres on the likelihood of his playing the kingmaker—and true arbiter of his country’s fortunes—after the next election.

Though it still lags the more radical Northern League, its rival for the right-wing vote, Forza Italia’s showing in the polls has improved. The centre-left Democratic Party (PD) is floundering and the Five Star Movement (M5S) is feeling the effects of a Europe-wide disenchantment with populism. But the real reason for Mr Berlusconi’s renewed strength is the failure of parliament to agree on a new electoral law. After modification by the constitutional court, the existing laws would allot seats to the main parties in almost exact proportion to their share of the vote. A recent projection suggested the M5S, which refuses to join a coalition with any of the mainstream parties, could occupy 185 of the 630 seats in the lower house. In such circumstances, a government of any kind would be hard to form. The most plausible outcome would be a coalition between the PD and Forza Italia, if Mr Berlusconi agreed.

The prospect of Forza Italia’s founder returning to a position of authority is not the only sign that Italy risks slipping backwards. A fragmented parliament would lead to the sort of unstable, ideologically heterogeneous coalition governments that bedevilled Italian politics until the early 1990s. Some Italians, particularly older ones, might welcome their return: the country’s “revolving-door” governments, in which ministers often left only to reappear in the next administration in a different job, coincided with a period of healthy economic growth. But times have changed, and what the economy needs today is radical, structural reform. It will not get it from coalitions of diverse parties, especially if they are guided behind the scenes by an octogenarian who, despite his claims to be a liberal, never dared introduce liberal reforms when in office.