Problem 1: Overoptimism and wishful thinking

Former Vice President Dick Cheney wasn’t the first person to have to eat his words, “we will, in fact, be greeted as liberators” after events proved otherwise. The informational roots of overoptimism regarding one’s own ability to accomplish difficult tasks comes comes from faulty and overlooked assumptions and also potentially from an overinflated sense of self. Such overoptimism also gives rise to a phenomenon known as the planning fallacy, which is when people underestimate the amount of time and resources it takes to accomplish a task (e.g., military operation, restabilization efforts, etc.). Planning fallacy also generally leads to the overestimation of the benefits of a course of action. Sometimes wishful thinking, or allowing preferences to bias perceptions about how events might unfold, is operating. Sometimes both overoptimism and wishful thinking (e.g., attempts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict) influence the thinking of those in charge.

What gives rise to overoptimism

The causes of overoptimism are many, but some reasons are that when thinking about how the future could unfold, policymakers focus on the most optimistic or preferred future rather than the many possible futures that could result. Post-Saddam Iraq’s descent into chaos and civil war was not totally unanticipated (e.g., General Colin Powell’s Pottery Barn rule comment) but those minority views were suppressed or ignored. Some overoptimism is also rooted in hubris, which leads to neglecting history and how things have turned out for other people. Expecting that a big-ticket Pentagon weapons program to stay within projected budget is to ignore all of the past history of Pentagon weapons programs. Overoptimism could also be rooted in overconfidence which arises when you think you know more than you really do.

How to spot when it might be happening

Just keep your ears perked for “we’ll be home by Christmas”, “this time will be different”, “we’ll succeed where others have failed”, “don’t worry, we got this”, etc. If someone makes a claim that is far outside the boundaries set by normal historical patterns, be wary.