The reasons for price fluctuations in the coffee trade are complex and not easy to explain. Ignoring the influence of hedge funds and their bets on rising and falling prices, the main driving force for price fluctuations is simply the supply and demand for coffee. Meaning, if we have a strong harvest, there is plenty of coffee and the price goes down. Fearing a tight harvest, the price rises.

Currently, we can see an annually growing worldwide overproduction of coffee. According to the International Coffee Organization, the international consumption of coffee, with 162 million bags, increased by about 1.8 % compared to the previous year. Coffee production exceeds this value by 2.6 million bags. (Coffee beans are traded in „bags“, with one bag containing 60 kg of green coffee beans). This oversupply lowers the coffee price.