Over the past 15 years – and contrary to popular belief – the world has made tremendous progress in reducing global poverty. One billion fewer people live in extreme poverty today than in 2000. This year, the rate of extreme global poverty is expected to fall below 10%, dropping into single digits for the first time in history. Inclusive economic growth, especially in China and India, has driven this success.



This kind of economic growth, which increases the income of the poorest 40%, is critical to reaching our global goal of ending poverty by 2030.

We are the first generation in history that can end poverty, but we will lose this opportunity if we do not tackle climate change, which will affect all of our lives and could devastate the poorest. It may push more than 100 million people into poverty in the next 15 years, according to a new World Bank Group report.

Extreme weather conditions are already wreaking havoc across the world. This year’s El Niño is expected to be one of the strongest yet, affecting billions of people in South and North America, Africa, Asia and the Pacific. Orange farmers in Florida, coffee growers in Indonesia, and tea harvesters in Kenya are among those who could see their crops damaged. The last time El Niño was this severe, in 1997-98, floods, fires, droughts and other disasters killed 30,000 people, displaced at least 24 million in China, India, Honduras and the Dominican Republic, and caused an estimated $100bn (£66bn) in damage.

Changing weather patterns will also increase the spread of disease carriers and infectious diseases like malaria, which is projected to strike about 214 million people in 2015. Almost 90% of these cases will be in sub-Saharan Africa. Rising global temperatures could put 150 million more people at risk and have a significant impact on productivity, undermining inclusive growth.

The poor will suffer the most. They often live, farm or hold assets in areas more exposed to droughts and floods, which puts their homes, crops and livestock at greater risk. Most have little access to bank accounts or social safety nets like health insurance, so they pay more than 50% of their health costs out of pocket. Without secure savings or public support, they often cannot recover from disasters or obtain treatment when sick.

Climate change is also expected to threaten our food security, potentially causing global crop losses of up to 5% by 2030. This could force food prices higher, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where the majority of the world’s extreme poor live. Such a scenario would make access to food more difficult and, by 2030, could leave another 7.5 million children facing nutritional and cognitive difficulties.



December’s global climate change conference in Paris presents a critical opportunity to stop climate change from reversing global gains against poverty. An ambitious agreement backed by strong political will can accelerate our transition to inclusive growth that reduces greenhouse gas emissions using renewable energy, efficiency upgrades and other steps. This would limit the future effects of climate change, create jobs and raise incomes.

The World Bank Group has made its own ambitious commitment to this cause. Last month, the group pledged to use its resources to increase support for developing countries’ response to climate change by up to $29bn annually by 2020. This is an important step, opening up a credible path to the $100bn in annual climate finance that is integral to reaching a climate change agreement.

Paris presents a critical opportunity to stop climate change from reversing global gains against poverty

After Paris, we will help countries to use this support to insulate the poor and others from the effects of climate change based on their national plans. Together, we can expand safety nets and financial access, and strengthen health systems. We can increase the use of heat-resistant crops and other climate-smart agricultural practices, eliminate fuel subsidies in ways that minimise the impact on the poor, and use urban design to reduce cities’ carbon emissions and make them more resilient.

The benefits can be immediate. In 2013, when Cyclone Phailin hit near Gopalpur, India, it killed fewer than 100 people, even though nearly 10,000 had died when a similar storm hit the area in 1999. The difference: early warning systems and evacuation plans introduced in the interim. In 2011, Ethiopia helped replace income that 3 million people lost to drought through a safety net programme that provides cash transfers for vulnerable households at times of crisis. The programme also pays communities to work on making their land more resistant to drought in the future, through building terraced fields to reduce soil erosion, for example, and it continues to shield Ethiopians from falling into poverty due to extreme weather.

International action on climate change must reflect our new understanding of what is at stake: the fate of hundreds of millions of people who live in extreme poverty today and the wellbeing of more than 100 million more who could be pushed into it. By doing the right thing, we will also push forward the cause of justice – we can preserve the planet for future generations and end extreme poverty. The two together will be humankind’s greatest achievement.