To Predict the 2017 NFL Draft, Look to the 2016 NFL Draft

One way to make sure we hit on our 2017 NFL mock drafts is to make sure we learn from the mistakes of the 2016 NFL Draft. Memories are not very long, and front offices will naturally learn their biggest lessons by looking back at who they missed on from the previous draft.

At the top of that list, especially considering the sorry state of QB play for many lowly franchises, is Dak Prescott, QB Dallas Cowboys.

Dak Prescott was drafted in the 4th round by the Dallas Cowboys, pick 135 overall. The QBs who were drafted ahead of Prescott were Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch, Christian Hackenberg, Jacoby Brissett, and Connor Cook, who have all combined for a 12:7 TD:INT ratio.

Dak Prescott currently sits with an 18:2 TD:INT ratio.

Especially notable on the list of QBs taken before Dak Prescott is Paxton Lynch. Jerry Jones lamented very publicly that he didn’t pull a trade to move up and grab him. Even the Cowboys, the one team who DIDN’T miss out on Dak Prescott, tried really hard to miss out on Dak Prescott.

Rather than heaping more and more praises on the guy, let’s use what we’ve learned from the scouting reports last year to see where we might find the next Dak Prescott and identify where to put him in our 2017 NFL mock drafts.

What Were They Saying About Dak Prescott?

Well, according to Rob Rang and Dane Brugler, Dak Prescott “Scouts are most impressed with his development above the neck, showing above average awareness as a passer, recognizing things quickly and working through his progressions to easily load and fire.” Additionally, he “has a quick memory to move on from mistakes and not let the negative plays linger.”

His biggest weaknesses were that he “Tends to predetermine some throws and relies on a lot of back shoulder patterns, something that got him in trouble against Auburn and Alabama.”

Over at WalterFootball, his strengths included “great teammate, experienced against good competition, gritty player, and strong leadership skills” and he went on to praise his “football IQ, leadership skills, and character.” Here, weaknesses included, “inconsistent accuracy, inconsistent field vision” and all-too-common question about the transition from the spread to a pro style offense.

Finally, at PFF, Prescott was featured on a Buyer Beware list of prospects, with the most interesting note being, “When games started to drift away from Prescott, he was rarely capable of changing the momentum back in his teams’ favor.”

Essentially, all the reports describe him as a kind of game manager- not a game changer. Smart kid. Doesn’t get rattled. But if you need a gunslinger, or someone who can drive the length of the field in a minute, you are out of luck.

Which Team Needs A Dak Prescott-Type in the 2017 NFL Draft?

Even if a team is savvy enough to identify and draft an underrated and overlooked QB like Dak, the player will still need an opportunity to play and a situation to succeed. Where might we find an NFL team with a strong offensive line and ground game, a hole at QB, and an offensive coach in place who will give a non-elite draft prospect a good chance to succeed?

There is really only one clear option- The Cleveland Browns.

Their O-line is still top-10 even after that horrible showing against the Ravens, Hue Jackson should be a stabilizing presence for the franchise, and I don’t think anyone needs to mention their QB situation.

On the other end, we need to identify a player. I think we will see two names as second day prospects that will be connected to the Browns as a second round pick: Brad Kaaya, and the player I’d like to focus on today, Luke Falk.

Washington State QB Luke Falk Offers Dak-Like Poise, Confidence, and Grit

These are all traits that the scouts agree, Luke Falk has in spades. He is a quick decision-maker, accurate, and doesn’t get rattled. And yet, walterfootball has left him out of the first three rounds of his 2017 NFL Mock Draft, and (in case he decides not to declare this season) out of the first round of his 2018 NFL Mock Draft. I actually haven’t seen Luke Falk mentioned anywhere, on any site, as an option for the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft.

I personally think Falk declares for the 2017 NFL Draft instead of returning to school. There’s not much more he can do in college, playing another season in a spread system, that can improve his draft stock. 2018 is being described as a banner year for QBs entering the draft, and so I think Falk comes out this year, in what is pretty roundly considered a weak class.

According to his head coach, Falk “reminds me a lot of farmers. Doesn’t get excited about anything. Kind of boring, but same guy every day.” and he ““Watches film as much as if not more than any guy I’ve ever coached.”

NFL.com contributor Lance Zierlein compares Falk to Matt Hasselbeck, which gets nobody in the scouting community excited, but gets head coaches thinking about how far their team can go if they just had some good, solid QB play from a steadfast leader.

The Browns will probably have the number 1 pick in the draft. With a couple of amazing defensive prospects in Myles Garrett and Jonathan Allen, there is no way they should consider drafting a DeShaun Watson or DeShone Kizer with that pick. Hue Jackson found success in the past, waiting on the position in the 2011 NFL Draft and taking boring, consistent Andy Dalton at the top of the second round. We should expect the Dak Prescott Effect to come into play for the Browns this season, and instead of drafting an exciting athlete at QB at the top of the first, waiting for an intelligent, gritty, solid QB like Luke Falk at the top of the second.

And if the Browns continue to improve their defense and offensive line, with the playmakers they already have at WR, Falk should excel early in his career, just like Dak Prescott.