POLITICO Playbook: We know how the impeachment show ends, but we’re still watching Presented by Amazon

Most every Democrat will likely vote to impeach President Donald Trump, with nearly all Republicans voting against it. | Spencer Platt/Getty Images

DRIVING THE DAY

THE HOUSE’S IMPEACHMENT OF PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP IS KIND OF LIKE WATCHING the newest season of “Jack Ryan” on Amazon Prime Video. Sure, the twists and turns are exciting. You know the dude is going to get chased, shot at or stabbed -- and do it all in exotic locales. Every episode makes you sweat as Jack gets into one pickle or another. In the end, though, you also know the showrunners probably won’t kill him off.

IMPEACHMENT IS KIND OF SIMILAR. Yes, the hearings these next two weeks are momentous and historic. They will highlight just how unusual this White House is: The president’s personal lawyer was running around the globe trying to get a foreign country to investigate a political rival, and the U.S. government was dangling meetings and money as enticements. We’ll hear from longtime foreign servants, a military official and White House insiders, all of whom have the same view of this administration’s behavior: improper, immoral and wrong-headed.

BUT, AT THE END OF THE DAY, we all have a pretty good idea how this movie is going to end: a nearly party-line vote, with most every Democrat voting to impeach the president, and nearly all Republicans voting against it. But in the middle -- the next nine days -- you’ll get nonstop, white-knuckle action.

-- TODAY: Bill Taylor and George Kent. FRIDAY: Marie Yovanovitch. NEXT WEEK’S WITNESSES: Tuesday: Pence aide Jennifer Williams … Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman … Kurt Volker … Timothy Morrison. Wednesday: Gordon Sondland … Laura Cooper … David Hale. Thursday: Fiona Hill. More from Kyle Cheney and Andrew Desiderio

TAKE IT A STEP FURTHER: Is it impossible to envision 20 Republicans in the Senate voting to remove TRUMP? No, but it seems close to impossible to envision it when GOP lawmakers like Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) are telling BURGESS EVERETT and MARIANNE LEVINE that he won’t even watch the proceedings because they are a “political sideshow” and Sen. DAVID PERDUE (R-Ga.) says “nothing rises to the level of impeachment.” Burgess and Marianne’s story

TODAY BEGINS WHAT MANY ARE DESCRIBING as an impeachment process that could stretch to three months. That’s a long time. Will the public be swayed by Democrats’ arguments? Or will it tire of the process? POLITICO/Morning Consult poll: “Most voters remain unmovable in impeachment views,” via Steve Shepard

A FEW THINGS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON …

-- HOUSE REPUBLICANS -- especially some of the lawmakers on this committee -- have a tendency to dive down rabbit holes. Read the transcripts and see how often they end up talking about the Steele dossier, or other ancillary issues. Will they continue that, or will they stay narrowly focused on the issues at hand? Will DEVIN NUNES follow ADAM SCHIFF’S lead, and allow his staff counsel to take the lead in questioning? Will they flail around, or stay tightly focused on what Republicans consider their most effective line to date: How was this a quid pro quo if Ukraine got the money without issuing a statement about investigating the Bidens?

-- HOUSE DEMOCRATS have, so far, conducted this hearing in private, but the transcripts show a precise, lawyerly demeanor. With the cameras now rolling, will Democrats have the ability to keep at bay their extreme distaste for the president, and allow the mostly nonpartisan witnesses to carry the day?

-- ONE OF THE DEMOCRATS’ self-described challenges is articulating exactly what TRUMP did that was so wrong. Rep. JIM HIMES (D-Conn.) suggested they stop calling it a quid pro quo, because, put simply, the Latin phrase was hard to understand. Will Democrats be able to explain what they see as an extortion plot by the president to damage a political rival? Heather Caygle, Sarah Ferris and John Bresnahan on the message

-- REPUBLICANS have spent much of the last month or so railing on Democrats for what they view as process fouls. Now that the hearings are public -- and will be covered wall to wall by network and cable television -- will they shift strategy, or stand pat? Will they try to discredit the witnesses personally, or will they seek to discredit their arguments?

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INTERESTING POINT … ONE QUESTION we got Tuesday is why neither side called any of the Ukrainian players to testify.

THE TIMELINE THAT’S RATTLING AROUND (this is all subject to change, and is just the mind-share of some senior aides and lawmakers) …

-- HOUSE INTEL will spend the next two weeks -- this and next week -- in public hearings.

-- THEN CONGRESS is out for Thanksgiving. Action seems unlikely -- although not impossible -- that week.

-- CONGRESS returns Dec. 3. For the two weeks after that -- week of Dec. 2 and week of Dec. 9 -- we expect HOUSE JUDICIARY to have some action in the impeachment realm.

-- THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO seems to be a House impeachment vote the week of Dec. 16 -- the same week government funding expires.

… WHAT CAN GO WRONG?

AP’S JONATHAN LEMIRE in New York: “Trump to face limits of his power in impeachment hearings”: “For three years, Donald Trump has unapologetically defied the conventions of the American presidency. … Now a parade of career public servants will raise their hands and swear an oath to the truth, not the presidency, representing an integral part of the system of checks and balances envisioned by the Founding Fathers.”

NANCY COOK notes that TONY SAYEGH, the former Treasury official who has been rehired to run point on impeachment communications, was on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, meeting with aides about messaging as Democrats seek to remove TRUMP from office. More from Nancy and Gabby Orr on the White House’s impeachment power matrix

JOHN HARRIS’ ALTITUDE COLUMN: “What Impeachment Will Cost the GOP”: “The conventional appraisal of Trump’s prospects—the House will likely convict, the Senate will likely acquit and Trump will claim vindication—might well be true. But this glosses over a larger point: On the current trajectory, Republicans are engaging in a battle with their own long-term costs that they will be paying for the next generation.

“Based on Clinton’s precedent, those costs will be paid against Trump’s agenda—things he wants to do but won’t achieve because of the distorting effects of impeachment on his political options and room for maneuver.

“They will be paid by his associates—people whose reputations and ambitions will be permanently dented because of their proximity to him. And they will be paid by conservatives who follow him—who will discover their own principles have lost credibility and power in the public mind because of their connection to Trump.”

RYAN LIZZA: “The impeachment calculus Democrats don't want to talk about”: “The degree to which the Democrats in Congress who are running the impeachment inquiry are disconnected from their colleagues running for president cannot be overstated. Impeachment and the presidential primary are like two planets slowly pulled together by gravity that are finally about to collide -- nobody seems to know who will survive impact.”

BRIEFLY NOTED … UKRAINIAN BILLIONAIRE IHOR KOLOMOISKY to Anton Troianovski of the NYT in Kyiv: “‘They’re stronger anyway. We have to improve our relations,’ he said, comparing Russia’s power to that of Ukraine. ‘People want peace, a good life, they don’t want to be at war. And you’ — America — ‘are forcing us to be at war, and not even giving us the money for it.’” NYT

Good Wednesday morning.

JARED’S GOT IT! … WAPO: “White House to use webcams to create live feed of border wall construction,” by Nick Miroff: “Jared Kushner and other senior Trump administration officials are planning to set up web cameras to live-stream construction of President Trump’s border wall, going against objections from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and senior U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials, according to four people familiar with the White House proposal.

“‘There will be a wall cam, and it’ll launch early next year,’ said a senior White House official involved in the initiative, which aims to rally public support for hundreds of miles of new border barrier Trump wants in place by next year’s election.

“The project, which already has cost $10 billion in taxpayer funds, is behind schedule and faces major hurdles, including the need to acquire miles of privately held land in Texas where barriers are slated to be built.

“Kushner floated the idea during meetings in July, part of a messaging effort to push back against criticism that Trump has failed to deliver on the signature proposal of his 2016 campaign. The Army Corps and CBP have told Kushner that construction contractors do not want their proprietary techniques visible to competitors, according to four people who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the internal discussions.” WaPo

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ON TRUMP’S AGENDA TODAY: ERDOĞAN … “Trump, Erdogan to meet as thorny issues stress relations,” by AP’s Deb Reichmann: “Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Donald Trump will meet as relations between the two NATO allies are at their lowest point in decades, with Turkey rebuffing the U.S. and turning toward Russia on security issues and Ankara facing a Washington backlash over attacks on Kurdish civilians during its incursion into Syria last month.

“Erdogan and Trump have a difficult agenda Wednesday that includes Turkey’s decision to buy a Russian air defense system and its attack on U.S.-allied Kurdish forces in northern Syria. Their scheduled afternoon news conference, however, will give Trump a stage to counter the first public hearings in the House impeachment inquiry.” AP

-- WAPO: “Trump offers trade deal, sanctions workaround to Erdogan for better U.S.-Turkey relations,” by Karen DeYoung, Missy Ryan and Kareem Fahim: “President Trump has offered Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, due to visit the White House on Wednesday, a package of inducements for better U.S.-Turkey relations that is virtually identical to those the administration proposed last month in a failed effort to stop Turkey’s invasion of Syria.

“In a new letter to Erdogan last week, Trump told the Turkish president that a $100 billion trade deal, and a workaround to avoid U.S. sanctions over Turkey’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile defense system, are still possible, senior administration officials said. The offer is likely to infuriate at least some of the overwhelming House majority that voted last month to impose sanctions on Turkey over its assault into Syria, and a bipartisan group of senators who introduced a similar bill.” WaPo

ABOUT THAT WHISTLEBLOWER REPORT … “Trump Has Considered Firing Intelligence Community Inspector General,” by NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Mike Schmidt: “President Trump has discussed dismissing the intelligence community’s inspector general, Michael Atkinson, because Mr. Atkinson reported a whistle-blower’s complaint about Mr. Trump’s interactions with Ukraine to Congress after concluding it was credible, according to four people familiar with the discussions.

“Mr. Trump first expressed his dismay about Mr. Atkinson around the time the whistle-blower’s complaint became public in September. In recent weeks, he has continued to raise with aides the possibility of firing him, one of the people said.” NYT

MULVANEY ON THE BRINK? -- “Aides are counseling Trump not to fire Mulvaney, as acting chief of staff changes course again,” by WaPo’s Carol Leonnig, Tom Hamburger, Josh Dawsey and John Hudson: “President Trump has been threatening for weeks to fire acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, but senior advisers have counseled him to hold off on such a drastic step amid a high-stakes impeachment probe, according to three people familiar with the discussions. ...

“Senior advisers have cautioned Trump that removing Mulvaney at such a sensitive time could be perilous, the people said — both because Mulvaney played an integral role in the decision to freeze the aid, and because of the disruption that would be caused by replacing one of Trump’s most senior aides.” WaPo

-- WAPO: “At donor dinner, Giuliani associate said he discussed Ukraine with Trump, according to people familiar with his account,” by Rosalind Helderman, Matt Zapotosky, Tom Hamburger and Josh Dawsey: “Lev Parnas, has described to associates that he and his business partner, Igor Fruman, told Trump at the dinner that they thought the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine was unfriendly to the president and his interests.

“According to Parnas, the president reacted strongly to the news: Trump immediately suggested that then-Ambassador Marie ­Yovanovitch, who had been in the Foreign Service for 32 years and served under Democratic and Republican presidents, should be fired, people familiar with his account said. Parnas declined to comment. Todd Blanche, a lawyer for Fruman, declined to comment. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

“Parnas’s account of personally discussing Ukraine with Trump more than 18 months ago suggests that he and Fruman had more personal interaction with the president — and potentially more influence over his views on that country — than the White House has acknowledged.” WaPo

2020 WATCH …

-- NYT’S ALEX BURNS and JONATHAN MARTIN: “Why Bloomberg and Deval Patrick Changed Their Minds About 2020”: “Both men have concluded in recent weeks that Mr. Biden, the former vice president, is not the imposing adversary they had expected him to be, interviews with aides and allies show. Both also believe there is room in the race for a more dynamic candidate who is closer to the political middle than Mr. Biden’s two most prominent challengers, Ms. Warren and Senator Bernie Sanders.

“Should Mr. Bloomberg and Mr. Patrick enter the race, they would test that proposition in different ways: Mr. Bloomberg with a powerfully funded campaign that would take on President Trump directly and contest the biggest states on the primary map from the start; Mr. Patrick with an insurgent candidacy that would begin in next-door New Hampshire and run through South Carolina, where black voters are likely to decide the primary.” NYT

-- MARC CAPUTO and DAVID SIDERS: “Michael Bloomberg, Deval Patrick blindside Dem primary field”: “The center of the Democratic Party is throwing a fit. The party’s moderate wing has suddenly produced back-to-back threats of Michael Bloomberg and Deval Patrick entering the presidential primary, revealing its determination to have an imposing presence in a race shaped by unrestrained liberal policy prescriptions and candidates.

“The two potential candidates are expressions of the deep concern voiced by Democratic Party insiders and donors that the moderate frontrunner in the race, Joe Biden, is flawed and in danger of losing to a progressive alternative, Sen. Elizabeth Warren. At a bare minimum, Bloomberg and Patrick stand to complicate — and potentially lengthen — the campaign.” POLITICO

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TRUMP’S WEDNESDAY -- The president and first lady Melania Trump will participate in the arrival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his wife Emine Erdoğan at noon on the South Portico. Afterward, the four of them will meet in the Oval Office. Trump and Erdoğan will participate in a bilateral meeting at 12:30 p.m. in the Oval Office followed by an expanded working lunch in the Cabinet Room.

At 2 p.m., Trump will meet with senators in the Oval Office. WAPO’S SEUNG MIN KIM notes in a tweet that the meeting will also include Erdoğan. At 3:10 p.m., Trump will participate in a joint press conference with Erdoğan in the East Room. The Trumps will bid farewell to Erdoğan and his wife at 3:45 p.m. in the Diplomatic Reception Room.

PLAYBOOK READS

PHOTO DU JOUR: A Hong Kong protester throws a molotov cocktail in a train station Wednesday as clashes between police and protesters grow increasingly violent. | Kin Cheung/AP Photo

NO SURPRISE HERE -- “Google’s ‘Project Nightingale’ Triggers Federal Inquiry,” by WSJ’s Rob Copeland and Sarah Needleman: “Google’s project with the country’s second-largest health system to collect detailed health information on 50 million American patients sparked a federal inquiry and criticism from patients and lawmakers.

“The data on patients of St. Louis-based Ascension were until recently scattered across 40 data centers in more than a dozen states. Google and the Catholic nonprofit are moving that data into Google’s cloud-computing system—with potentially big changes on tap for doctors and patients.

“At issue for regulators and lawmakers who expressed concern is whether Google and Ascension are adequately protecting patient data in the initiative, which is code-named ‘Project Nightingale’ and is aimed at crunching data to produce better health care, among other goals. Ascension, without notifying patients or doctors, has begun sharing with Google personally identifiable information on millions of patients, such as names and dates of birth; lab tests; doctor diagnoses; medication and hospitalization history; and some billing claims and other clinical records.” WSJ

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KNOWING JOHN SOLOMON -- “The Man Trump Trusts for News on Ukraine,” by NYT’s Jeremy Peters and Ken Vogel

TOP-ED … RUDY GIULIANI in the WSJ: “The Case for the Impeachment Defense”: “Mr. Trump requested that Ukraine root out corruption; he didn’t demand it. His words were cordial, agreeable and free of any element of threat or coercion. Mr. Trump offered nothing in return to Ukraine for cleaning up corruption. If you doubt me, read the transcript. Allegations of Burisma-Biden corruption weren’t even a major part of the conversation. The focus was on Ukrainian corruption broadly speaking and out of a five-page transcript Mr. Trump spent only six lines on Joe Biden.” WSJ

-- BILL TAYLOR, one of today’s impeachment witnesses, published an op-ed of his own in a Ukrainian newspaper this week. It contains this eyebrow-raising line: “As in all democracies, including the United States, work remains in Ukraine, especially to strengthen rule of law and to hold accountable those who try to subvert Ukraine's structures to serve their personal aims, rather than the nation's interests.”

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2020 MOVES -- “Trump campaign staffs-up press team as public impeachment hearings set to begin,” by ABC’s Will Steakin and Rachel Scott: “The moves include the campaign elevating Erin Perrine to principal deputy communications director after initially joining back in April as deputy communications director. Perrine, a Capitol Hill veteran, moved over to the campaign after most recently serving as national press secretary for House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy of California. …

“Ali Pardo is also joining the campaign as deputy director of communications for press. Like Perrine, Pardo joins with years of Capitol Hill experience including serving as the National Press Secretary for the House Republican Conference under Chairwoman Liz Cheney.” ABC

MEDIAWATCH -- “Politico’s Founder Is Launching a Tech Site—Into a Very Crowded Market,” by Vanity Fair’s Joe Pompeo: ‘Now he wants to replicate Politico’s playbook, as it were, with Protocol, which he will officially announce this week. The digital-only venture plans to lift off with roughly the same level of manpower and investment as its predecessor did more than a decade ago: several dozen journalists and business employees and a little more than $10 million under the hood. ‘I would love for this to be as big as, if not larger than, Politico is right now,’ [Robert] Allbritton told me.” Vanity Fair … Protocol.com … Launch staff

-- WAPO’S SARAH ELLISON: “Fox News host Tucker Carlson is loudly ignoring impeachment. It ‘is not only dumb, it’s boring’”

-- CNN’S BRIAN STELTER: “Anonymous anti-Trump book is already a hit and it’s not on shelves until next week”: “While the book won't be out for another week, the Twelve imprint at Hachette Book Group says ‘A Warning’ has ‘garnered more pre-orders than any other nonfiction book at any imprint in the history of Hachette.’ The publisher provided the peek at pre-order sales in a press release on Tuesday. While exact numbers were not provided, pre-orders have totaled ‘well over 100,000 and climbing,’ according to a publishing world source.” CNN

-- Olivia Petersen has been named managing director of communications at Morning Consult. She most recently was global corporate communications director at Whole Foods and is an NBC and POLITICO alum.

PLAYBOOKERS

Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at [email protected].

SPOTTED: Gordon Sondland on an Alaska Airlines flight from Portland to DCA on Tuesday. … Howard Dean and George Will separately at Union Station on Tuesday.

SPOTTED at a book party for Donald Trump Jr.’s ”Triggered” ($17.98 on Amazon) at the Trump Hotel: Donald Trump Jr., Kim Guilfoyle, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Rep. Mark Walker (R-N.C.), Katrina Pierson, Brad Parscale, Tony Sayegh, Arthur Schwartz, Andy Surabian. Stephen Cheung, Kaelan Dorr, Larry Solov, Tom Joannou, Matt Wolking, Rich Higgins, Matt Boyle, Jeff Miller, Kash Patel, Taylor Budowich, John Pence, Josh Steinman, Paul Packer, Sergio Gor and Emerald Robinson.

SPOTTED at a book party for Sen. Michael Bennet’s (D-Colo.) “The Land of Flickering Lights: Restoring America in an Age of Broken Politics” ($19.99 on Amazon), hosted by Linda Douglass and John Phillips, Greg and Derry Craig, and George and Liz Stevens: Anne and Mark Shields, Anne Fleming and Gordon Peterson, Betsy Fischer Martin, Byron and Kim Dorgan, Bill Press, Ed O’Keefe, Jane Harman, Jane Mayer, John Harwood, Al Hunt, Karen Tumulty and Paul Richter, Mara Liasson, Margaret Carlson, Melissa Moss, Nina Totenberg and David Reines, Patrick Steel, Stephanie Cutter, Susan Brophy and Marcia Hale.

SPOTTED at the Barbara Bush Foundation’s National Celebration of Reading and National Summit on Adult Literacy at the Kennedy Center on Tuesday night: Laura Bush, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Jonathan Capehart, Ann and Lloyd Hand, Lynda Webster, Chuck and Lynda Robb, Jean Case, Coach “Kathy” Kemper, Doro Bush Koch, British Robinson, Sandra and Jeb Bush Jr., Margaret and Marvin Bush, Jon Meacham, Tim McGraw, Susan Orlean, Eric Motley and Jesse J. Holland.

SPOTTED at the “It’s Not Too Late Show” with Billy Eichner and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, hosted by Swing Left at the Eaton Hotel: Reps. Angie Craig (D-Minn.), Elaine Luria (D-Va.), Harley Rouda (D-Calif.), Cindy Axne (D-Iowa), Chris Pappas (D-N.H.), Kim Schrier (D-Wash.) and TJ Cox (D-Calif.), Ethan Todras-Whitehill, Michelle Finocchi, Tori Taylor, Yasmin Radjy, Wendi Wallace, Ivan Cheung, Leslie Martes, Ross Morales Rocketto, Justin Myers and Paulette Aniskoff.

SPOTTED at a reception celebrating Campbell Soup Company’s 150th anniversary, where guests enjoyed grilled cheese with tomato soup shooters and other signature Campbell products: Reps. Donald Norcross (D-N.J.), Bob Latta (R-Ohio), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Trey Hollingsworth (R-Ind.), Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.), Mary Gay Scanlon (D-Pa.) and Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.).

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- Brad Bauman’s Harta Communications is rebranding as Fireside Campaigns with new partners Julia Rosen and Ryan Alexander, who joined from GPS Impact.

TRANSITIONS -- C. Nicole Mason has been named president and CEO of the Institute for Women’s Policy Research. She previously led the Center for Research and Policy in the Public Interest and the Women of Color Policy Network at NYU’s Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service. … Jesse Barba will be senior director of external affairs at Young Invincibles. He previously was a VP at Cassidy & Associates.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Dominique Mann, writer, consultant and Obama White House alum. A trend she thinks doesn’t get enough attention: “We read about climate change, but not a lot on the disproportionate effect it has on communities of color. If covered at all, conversations and narratives often frame this reality as an afterthought, unfortunately. Even beyond news or academic articles, images on different platforms about the great outdoors and its benefits rarely show inclusion or diverse groups of people.” Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is 62 … Texas first lady Cecilia Abbott … Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) is 55 … Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker is 63 … Peter Arnett is 85 … Addie Whisenant, senior director at Bully Pulpit Interactive … Joe Cirincione, president of Ploughshares Fund (h/t Ben Chang) … CNN’s Eric Bradner … POLITICO’s Joyce Liu, Mariana Fernandez Aponte and Cole Thomas … Ken Rudin … Michael Schwab is 33 … Geoff Freeman, president and CEO of the Grocery Manufacturers Association … Lindsay Drewel … Harry Hurt III is 68 … Jonathan Topaz, Skadden fellow staff attorney at the ACLU Voting Rights Project … Zach Gillan, associate at S-3 Public Affairs … Jared Goldberg-Leopold … Jared Parks, VP at the Herald Group, is 36 …

… Bradd Jaffy of NBC News … Jeff Blattner, president of Legal Policy Solutions (h/t Jon Haber) … Ken Klukowski … Deloitte’s Meg Lombardo (h/t Chris Tucker) … Lindsay Drewel (h/t Kiki Burger) … Jon Wadsworth ... Nochi Dankner is 65 ... Saul Kripke is 79 ... Ayaan Hirsi Ali is 5-0 … Leah Breen … Ruth Wattenberg … Tim Alford, media relations manager at U.S. Travel Association … Robert Arlett … Kevin Pailet ... Ari Morgenstern ... Brad Clark ... Nikki Blank ... Miranda Moreno ... Camille Uzel ... David Alexander ... Sherine El-Nahas ... Robert Hastings … Chuck Thies … Marion Steinfels … Washington Times’ Seth McLaughlin is 43 … Boeing’s Terry Adamson ... John Lapp … Martha McKenna (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)

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