Since December I have been projecting the Democratic Delegates with a model which can be seen here.

Here are the results today from today:



This models a 5 and 10 point swing from the most recent polling.

But that doesn't really tell the whole story. Here are the polls that the projection is using:

California SurveyUSA 30-Mar 3-Apr 53 39

California LA Times 16-Mar 23-Mar 47 36

California PPIC 6-Mar 15-Mar 48 41

Maryland Wash Post/Univ. of Maryland 30-Mar 4-Apr 55 40

New Jersey Rutgers 3-Feb 15-Feb 55 32

New York CBS/YouGov 53 43

New York Quinipiac 54 42

Pennsylvania Franklin & Marshall 3/14/2016 20-Mar 50 44

Rhode Island Brown 2/22/2016 2/23/2016 49 40

The problem is there is no way many of these polls, which are old, can be squared with this polling. Given what we know about the South, where Clinton ran up enormous margins, there is simply no way Clinton can be up by double digits in California, Maryland and New York. '

Here is the most recent national polling;



The simple truth is that a projection based on current state polling is almost certainly wrong.

If you go back to my project, you see that with a 10 point swing Bernie gets within 30 delegates of Clinton.

But this overstates the swing needed. If the national polling is right, a good portion of this swing has already happened.

In a nutshell, this is actually closer than people realize. This may be why both campaigns are becoming increasingly aggressive.

It is oft repeated: sanders has no path to the nomination.

The math says otherwise.