Just two weeks before the next U.S. president will be elected, the pivotal swing state of Florida could still go either way for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, a Bay News 9/News 13 Florida Decides exclusive poll has found.

Democrat Hillary Clinton has a slim lead over Republican Donald Trump 48 to 45 percent, in the race for the presidency, but 6 percent of the respondents say they would vote for a minor-party candidate if the election were held today, the exclusive statewide Florida Decides poll determined.

It's a statistical tie when the margin of error (2.8 percent) is factored in.

The survey was conducted between Oct. 20 and 24, after the third and final presidential debate.

Clinton leads 2 to 1 among young voters — who are least likely to turn out to the polls, the survey found. Trump leads by 11 points among Florida's seniors, who are most likely to show up to the polls. The older the electorate, the better Trump will perform. Among women, Clinton has a six-point lead.



Not surprisingly, Trump leads 50 percent to 42 percent, among white Florida voters. Black Floridians overwhelmingly back Clinton, 78 percent to 18 percent. Cubans favor Trump by five points, but non-Cuban Hispanics back Clinton, 56 percent to 37 percent. Asians prefer Clinton by 14 points.

When Trump supporters were asked whether their vote was for Trump or against Clinton, 67 percent of those polled said their vote was for Trump. Thirty-one percent of those polled said their Trump vote was actually a vote against Clinton. Those same Trump supporters were asked whether they were voting for him "enthusiastically " or "with reservations;" they overwhelmingly (74 percent) said their vote for the business mogul was enthusiastic.

No state is more fiercely contested than Florida in a presidential election. President Barack Obama carried the state by less than 1 percentage point in 2012 and by 3 points in 2008. Republican George W. Bush carried the state by 5 points in 2004 and by a handful of votes in 2000.

Detailed poll results

Q: If the election for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Hillary Clinton? Libertarian Gary Johnson? Green Party candidate Jill Stein? Or one of the other candidates?

All Gender

Age

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Donald Trump (R)

45%

46%

44%

28%

43%

49%

54%

Hillary Clinton (D)

48%

47%

50%

59%

48%

46%

43%

Gary Johnson (L) 2% 3% 2% 4% 3% 2% 1% Jill Stein (G) 1% 2% 1% 4% 1% 0% 0% Other 3% 3% 3% 5% 5% 1% 1% Undecided 0%

0%

0%

1%

0%

0%

0%

Composition of likely/actual

November voters

100%

49%

51%

19%

26%

29%

27%



Race

White

Black

Asian/

Other

Cuban Non-

Cuban Hispanic Composition of likely/actual

November voters

80%

14%

7%

5% 7% Donald Trump (R)

50%

18%

41%

49% 37% Hillary Clinton (D)

42%

78%

55%

44% 56% Gary Johnson (L) 3% 0% 2% 2% 2% Jill Stein (G) 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% Other 3% 2% 1% 4% 5% Undecided 0%

0%

1%

0% 0%

Party Affiliation

Strong

Rep. Republican Ind. lean

Rep. Independent Ind. lean

Dem.

Democrat

Strong

Dem.

Composition of likely/actual

November voters 16% 16% 13% 12% 9% 18% 15% Donald Trump (R)

93%

77%

85%

37%

5%

8%

4%

Hillary Clinton (D)

5%

17%

8%

43%

83%

90%

96%

Gary Johnson (L) 0% 3% 3% 7% 6% 0% 0% Jill Stein (G) 0% 0% 1% 5% 3% 0% 0% Other 1% 3% 2% 7% 1% 2% 0% Undecided

0%

0%

0%

2%

1%

0%

0%



Ideology Very Conserv. Somewhat Moderate Somewhat Very Lib. Composition of likely/actual

November voters 19% 23% 30% 14% 12% Donald Trump (R)

79%

72%

38%

8%

4%

Hillary Clinton (D)

16%

23%

55%

85%

92%

Gary Johnson (L) 0% 2% 2% 4% 1% Jill Stein (G) 0% 0% 2% 0% 2% Other 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% Undecided 0%

0%

1%

0%

0%



Evangelical Gun owner

Yes

No

Yes No

Composition of likely/actual

November voters 26% 67% 39% 56% Donald Trump (R)

71%

36%

59%

33%

Hillary Clinton (D)

24%

57%

35%

59%

Gary Johnson (L) 1% 3% 2% 3% Jill Stein (G) 0% 2% 0% 2% Other 3% 2% 2% 3% Undecided 0%

0%

0%

0%



Education Income High School Some College 4-yr College < $40K $40K - $80K > $80K Composition of likely/actual

November voters 15% 34% 50% 25% 35% 39% Donald Trump (R)

45%

50%

41%

38%

47%

48%

Hillary Clinton (D)

46%

43%

53%

55%

47%

46%

Gary Johnson (L) 1% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% Jill Stein (G) 2% 2% 0% 0% 1% 2% Other 6% 2% 2% 4% 3% 2% Undecided 1%

0%

1%

0%

0%

1%



Surveyed: 1,251 likely November voters

Margin of sampling error: ± 2.8%



Q: Is yours more a vote FOR Donald Trump, or more a vote AGAINST Hillary Clinton?

All Gender

Age

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

For Trump

67%

66%

68%

61%

63%

70%

69%

Against Clinton

31%

32%

31%

34%

36%

29%

29%

Not Sure

2%

2%

2%

5%

1%

1%

2%

Composition of Trump voters

100%

50%

50%

11%

25%

32%

32%



Race

White

Black

Asian/

Other

Cuban Non-

Cuban Hispanic Composition of Trump voters

88%

5%

6%

6% 5% For Trump

68%

68%

68%

71% 58% Against Clinton

31%

32%

38%

29% 33% Not Sure

1%

0%

1%

0% 9%

Party Affiliation

Strong

Rep. Republican Ind. lean

Rep. Independent Ind. lean

Dem.

Democrat

Strong

Dem.

Composition of Trump voters 32% 27% 25% 10% 1% 3% 1% For Trump

81%

66%

59%

52%

** ** ** Against Clinton

18%

33%

40%

43%

** ** ** Not Sure

0%

1%

1%

3%

** ** **

Ideology Very Conserv. Conserv. Moderate Liberal Very Lib. Composition of Trump voters 32% 38% 25% 2% 1% For Trump

74%

67%

58%

** ** Against Clinton

25%

32%

39%

** ** Not Sure

1%

1%

3%

** **

Evangelical Gun owner

Yes

No

Yes No

Composition of Trump voters 41% 53% 51% 42% For Trump

75%

61%

64%

69%

Against Clinton

24%

38%

34%

29%

Not Sure

1%

2%

2%

1%



Education Income High School Some College 4-yr College < $40K $40K - $80K > $80K Composition of Trump voters 15% 38% 46% 21% 37% 42% For Trump

70%

67%

66%

73%

68%

62%

Against Clinton

26%

31%

33%

24%

29%

37%

Not Sure

4%

1%

1%

3%

3%

0%



Surveyed: 561 likely Trump voters

Margin of sampling error: ± 4%



Q: Do you vote for Trump enthusiastically? Or with reservations?

All Gender

Age

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Enthusiastically

74%

73%

75%

60%

68%

78%

81%

With reservations

24%

25%

24%

33%

30%

22%

19%

Not Sure

1%

2%

1%

7%

2%

0%

0%

Composition of Trump voters

100%

50%

50%

11%

25%

32%

32%



Race

White

Black

Asian/

Other

Cuban Non-

Cuban Hispanic Composition of Trump voters

88%

5%

6%

6% 5% Enthusiastically

74%

89%

61%

75% 77% With reservations

25%

11%

32%

25% 14% Not Sure

1%

0%

7%

0% 9%

Party Affiliation

Strong

Rep. Republican Ind. lean

Rep. Independent Ind. lean

Dem.

Democrat

Strong

Dem.

Composition of Trump voters 32% 27% 25% 10% 1% 3% 1% Enthusiastically

86%

72%

66%

65%

**

**

**

With reservations

14%

28%

33%

28%

**

**

**

Not Sure

0%

0% 1%

7%

**

**

**



Ideology Very Conserv. Somewhat Moderate Somewhat Very Lib. Composition of Trump voters 32% 38% 25% 2% 1% Enthusiastically

83%

73%

64%

**

**

With reservations

17%

27%

32%

**

** Not Sure

0%

0%

4%

**

**



Evangelical Gun owner

Yes

No

Yes No

Composition of Trump voters 41% 53% 51% 42% Enthusiastically

83%

67%

73%

73%

With reservations

17%

32%

25%

26%

Not Sure

0%

1%

2%

1%



Education Income High School Some College 4-yr College < $40K $40K - $80K > $80K Composition of Trump voters 15% 38% 46% 21% 37% 42% Enthusiastically

75%

78%

71%

82%

76%

68%

With reservations

21%

21%

29%

16%

22%

32%

Not Sure

4%

1%

0%

2%

1%

1%



Surveyed: 564 Trump voters

Margin of sampling error: ± 3.7%



Q: Is yours more a vote FOR Hillary Clinton or more a vote AGAINST Donald Trump?

All Gender

Age

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

For Clinton

67%

67%

68%

59%

56%

74%

80%

Against Trump 31%

31%

31%

37%

44%

25%

18%

Not Sure

2%

2%

1%

4%

1%

1%

2%

Composition of Clinton voters

100%

47%

53%

23%

26%

28%

24%



Race

White

Black

Asian/

Other

Cuban Non-

Cuban Hispanic Composition of Clinton voters

70%

22%

8%

5% 8% For Clinton

70%

65%

54%

58% 50% Against Trump

29%

33%

45%

32% 49% Not Sure

2%

2%

0%

10% 1%

Party Affiliation

Strong

Rep. Republican Ind. lean

Rep. Independent Ind. lean

Dem.

Democrat

Strong

Dem.

Composition of Clinton voters 2% 6% 2% 11% 15% 33% 31% For Clinton

**

39%

**

60%

60%

67%

83%

Against Trump **

57%

**

38%

39%

31%

16%

Not Sure

** 4%

**

2%

2%

1%

1%



Ideology Very Conserv. Conserv. Moderate Liberal Very Lib. Composition of Clinton voters 6% 11% 34% 24% 22% For Clinton

80%

63%

67%

64%

74%

Against Trump

18%

31%

32%

36%

26%

Not Sure

1%

6%

1%

0%

0%



Evangelical Gun owner

Yes

No

Yes No

Composition of Clinton voters 13% 79% 29% 69% For Clinton

71%

67%

63%

69%

Against Trump

29%

32%

36%

29%

Not Sure

0%

1%

1%

2%



Education Income High School Some College 4-yr College < $40K $40K - $80K > $80K Composition of Clinton voters 15% 30% 55% 29% 34% 37% For Clinton

61%

66%

70%

71%

57%

75%

Against Trump

38%

32%

29%

27%

41%

24%

Not Sure

1%

3%

1%

2%

2%

1%



Surveyed: 602 Clinton voters

Margin of sampling error: ± 3.8%



Q: Do you vote for Clinton enthusiastically? Or with reservations?

All Gender

Age

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Enthusiastically

69%

71%

66%

55%

60%

81%

77%

With reservations

29%

27%

30%

38%

39%

18%

21%

Not Sure

2%

1%

4%

7%

0%

1%

2%

Composition of Clinton voters

100%

47%

53%

23%

26%

28%

24%



Race

White

Black

Asian/

Other

Cuban Non-

Cuban Hispanic Composition of Clinton voters

70%

22%

8%

5% 8% Enthusiastically

66%

80%

65%

68% 56% With reservations

32%

18%

34%

16% 40% Not Sure

3%

2%

1%

16% 4%

Party Affiliation

Strong

Rep. Republican Ind. lean

Rep. Independent Ind. lean

Dem.

Democrat

Strong

Dem.

Composition of Clinton voters 2% 6% 2% 11% 15% 33% 31% Enthusiastically

**

47%

**

60%

55%

64%

90%

With reservations

**

53%

**

37%

43%

34%

8%

Not Sure

**

0%

**

3%

2%

2%

2%



Ideology Very Conserv. Conserv. Moderate Liberal Very Lib. Composition of Clinton voters 6% 11% 34% 24% 22% Enthusiastically

95%

64%

67%

57%

78%

With reservations

4%

35%

32%

38%

21%

Not Sure

2%

1%

2%

5%

1%



Evangelical Gun owner

Yes

No

Yes No

Composition of Clinton voters 13% 79% 29% 69% Enthusiastically

76%

67%

68%

69%

With reservations

23%

31%

31%

28%

Not Sure

2%

3%

1%

3%



Education Income High School Some College 4-yr College < $40K $40K - $80K > $80K Composition of Clinton voters 15% 30% 55% 29% 34% 37% Enthusiastically

80%

69%

66%

73%

65%

69%

With reservations

18%

27%

33%

24%

33%

28%

Not Sure

3%

4%

2%

2%

2%

4%



Surveyed: 602 Clinton voters

Margin of sampling error: ± 3.8%

Q: Is your opinion of Donald Trump...

All Gender

Age

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Extremely favorable

23%

26%

21%

14%

21%

26%

30%

Favorable

19%

19%

19%

12%

20%

21%

21%

Unfavorable 9% 10% 9% 12% 12% 8% 7% Extremely unfavorable

46% 44% 48% 59% 45% 43% 40% Not Sure

2%

2%

3%

3%

2%

3%

2%

Composition of registered voters

100%

48%

52%

20%

26%

29%

26%



Race

White

Black

Asian/

Other

Cuban Non-

Cuban Hispanic Composition of registered voters

79%

14%

7%

5% 7% Extremely favorable

26%

13%

17%

26% 26% Favorable

21%

6%

22%

25% 8% Unfavorable 10% 9% 8% 13% 4% Extremely unfavorable

41% 68% 51% 34% 59% Not Sure

2%

3%

2%

2% 3%

Party Affiliation

Strong

Rep. Republican Ind. lean

Rep. Independent Ind. lean

Dem.

Democrat

Strong

Dem.

Composition of registered voters 15% 16% 13% 13% 9% 18% 15% Extremely favorable

66%

35%

30%

17%

4%

4%

4%

Favorable

26%

35%

44%

17%

0%

6%

0%

Unfavorable 2% 10% 10% 19% 9% 13% 4% Extremely unfavorable

5% 17% 12% 45% 85% 74% 90% Not Sure

0%

2%

4%

2%

1%

3%

2%



Ideology Very Conserv. Conserv. Moderate Liberal Very Lib. Composition of registered voters 18% 23% 30% 14% 11% Extremely favorable

49%

34%

17%

4%

4%

Favorable

28%

32%

18%

4%

0%

Unfavorable 6% 12% 12% 10% 1% Extremely unfavorable 16% 21% 49% 82% 93% Not Sure

2%

2%

3%

0%

2%



Evangelical Gun owner

Yes

No

Yes No

Composition of registered voters 26% 67% 39% 56% Extremely favorable

43%

26%

30%

17%

Favorable

27%

17%

26%

14%

Unfavorable

5% 11% 7% 11% Extremely unfavorable

23% 54% 34% 55% Not Sure

2%

2%

2%

2%



Education Income High School Some College 4-yr College < $40K $40K - $80K > $80K Composition of registered voters 16% 34% 50% 26% 36% 38% Extremely favorable

30%

25%

20%

26%

25%

19%

Favorable

15%

22%

18%

12%

19%

24%

Unfavorable 9% 8% 11% 12% 8% 9% Extremely unfavorable

44% 43% 48% 47% 47% 44% Not Sure

2%

3%

2%

2%

1%

3%



Surveyed: 1,314 likely registered voters

Margin of sampling error: ± 2.8%



Q: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton...

All Gender

Age

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Extremely favorable

21%

20%

21%

19%

14%

25%

24%

Favorable

23%

21%

25%

30%

28%

19%

18%

Unfavorable 10% 12% 9% 14% 14% 6% 8% Extremely unfavorable

45% 45% 44% 35% 42% 50% 50% Not Sure

1%

2%

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

Composition of registered voters

100%

48%

52%

20%

26%

29%

26%



Race

White

Black

Asian/

Other

Cuban Non-

Cuban Hispanic Composition of registered voters

79%

14%

7%

5% 7% Extremely favorable

26%

13%

17%

26% 26% Favorable

21%

6%

22%

25% 8% Unfavorable 10% 9% 8% 13% 4% Extremely unfavorable

41% 68% 51% 34% 59% Not Sure

2%

3%

2%

2% 3%

Party Affiliation

Strong

Rep. Republican Ind. lean

Rep. Independent Ind. lean

Dem.

Democrat

Strong

Dem.

Composition of registered voters 15% 16% 13% 13% 9% 18% 15% Extremely favorable

3%

5%

1%

11%

18%

34%

68%

Favorable

3%

13%

6%

21%

58%

47%

25%

Unfavorable 7% 9% 12% 23% 13% 8% 2% Extremely unfavorable

88% 73% 80% 43% 9% 9% 4% Not Sure

0%

0%

1%

2%

2%

1%

0%



Ideology Very Conserv. Conserv. Moderate Liberal Very Lib. Composition of registered voters 18% 23% 30% 14% 11% Extremely favorable

12%

8%

20%

28%

53%

Favorable

6%

13%

30%

42%

34%

Unfavorable 6% 10% 10% 19% 5% Extremely unfavorable 76% 68% 37% 11% 7% Not Sure

0%

0%

2%

1%

1%



Evangelical Gun owner

Yes

No

Yes No

Composition of registered voters 26% 67% 39% 56% Extremely favorable

16%

22%

14%

26%

Favorable

9%

29%

19%

27%

Unfavorable

8% 11% 9% 11% Extremely unfavorable

68% 37% 57% 35% Not Sure

0%

1%

1%

1%



Education Income High School Some College 4-yr College < $40K $40K - $80K > $80K Composition of registered voters 16% 34% 50% 26% 36% 38% Extremely favorable

18%

20%

22%

27%

17%

21%

Favorable

26%

18%

26%

22%

26%

21%

Unfavorable 8% 9% 12% 10% 12% 9% Extremely unfavorable

47% 51% 40% 40% 45% 47% Not Sure

1%

2%

1%

1%

0%

1%



Surveyed: 1,314 likely registered voters

Margin of sampling error: ± 2.8%



Full survey results by various demographics

This Bay News 9/News 13 Exclusive statewide Florida Decides poll was conducted by SurveyUSA from Oct. 20-24. SurveyUSA interviewed 1,400 state of Florida adults, 1,314 of whom were registered to vote. Of those registered, 1,251 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the Nov. 8 general election. Just 1 percent of voters interviewed for this survey said they "almost always" vote in presidential elections but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates on the ballot. Five percent of voters said they "almost never" vote in presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they were drawn to one of this year's candidates. Importantly: These "new" voters are spread across the political spectrum; they are not disproportionately Trump supporters. All of the interviews for this survey were conducted after the third presidential debate and at a time when Trump described himself as "unshackled." This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (65 percent of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (35 percent of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.