Any true love who wants to give their significant other two turtle doves to celebrate the second day of the 12 Days of Christmas may soon be looking for an alternative gift.

In a move that will dismay ornithologists and poets alike, the bird, immortalised in verse by Shakespeare and Wordsworth, could shortly find itself on the near 100-strong list of the rarest birds in the UK as compiled by the RSPB's rare breeding birds panel – a sign that its numbers are plummeting by such a degree that there are fears it could become extinct in the UK within a decade.

The list compiled by the panel, now in its 40th year, is based on sightings by dedicated bird watchers who provide the society with a wealth of information that is used to track the fortunes of different species over time and is the envy of wildlife organisations around the world.

The osprey is a rare success story, increasing its numbers by 1,247%. Photograph: Alamy

During the last four decades a number of species have been identified as extinct or at risk of extinction within the UK. While the turtle dove's fate has been a concern for several years, the increasingly rapid pace of its decline – a 96% drop in numbers since the panel was started – suggests it is rivalled only by the once common willow tit, whose numbers have plunged by 83% since 1995, for the unwanted distinction of being the UK's fastest disappearing bird.

The last estimate of the turtle dove population, in 2009, suggested there were just 14,000 pairs in the UK but, according to the RSPB, its numbers are halving every six years, meaning it will soon be on the critical list.

If so, bird lovers will be hoping that it does not go the way of the wryneck, a brown, sparrow-sized woodpecker, that was common in every county in England and Wales in the 19th century but has not bred since 2002. Now believed to be extinct, the bird is so rare that it is not even included on the panel's list which records only those species of which there are thought to be fewer than 2,000 pairs in the UK. Among those on the "last chance to see" list is the marsh warbler, a spirited songster which was down to just seven pairs in 2012, compared with 78 in 1973, when the panel was founded.

The marsh warbler was down to seven breeding pairs in 2012. Photograph: Duncan Usher/Minden Pictures/Corbis

Other birds at risk of disappearing altogether are the beautiful Slavonian grebe with its striking golden ear tufts, down by 56% to 34 pairs; the common scoter, down to 39 pairs by 2012, a decline of 81%; and the golden oriole which has a resplendent luminous yellow coat and a distinctive whistling signal and, since it has not bred in the UK since 2009, is thought to be already extinct.

The panel also identifies the red-backed shrike as extremely rare. Its unmissable pale blue scalp and black face was once a common sight across farms and heaths, and, while it was thought to be extinct in the late 1980s, a couple of pairs have been sighted in Devon in recent years.

The panel's latest annual report, published this week, covers 2012 when a wet and stormy late spring and the wettest June for a century meant flooding and damage to trees. This had serious consequences for a number of rare birds including the honey buzzard, red kite, little ringed plover, short-eared owl and black-tailed godwit.

"A lot of species can accommodate a bad year but it's if we get into a pattern then there are problems," said Dr Mark Eaton, chair of the panel. Better weather last year suggests this concern will not be realised. But a more profound worry is the impact that dramatic changes to habitat both around the world and in the UK are having on birdlife.

Migrant birds such as the turtle dove and the golden oriole winter in Africa where desertification and forest clearance have devastated swaths of land that once provided shelter. Many rare species have also been affected by profound changes in the UK's countryside.

The golden oriole has not bred in the UK since 2009. Photograph: Johner Images/Alamy

"We know certain species have been seriously impacted by changes in our farming," Eaton said. "Intensification has reduced the availability of wild flower seeds they depend on. Many birds thrive in marginal areas around farms, in scrub and thick hedges, but these types of places are disappearing."

Some common species are suffering, too. The latest Breeding Bird Survey, published yesterday, revealed that all three UK breeding wagtail species are in long-term decline. Eaton suggested a decline in the standards of woodland management was another factor. Copicing, the cutting back of trees so that it encourages dense woodland, suitable for nesting, has declined significantly since the second world war.

However, it is not all bad news. The panel reports that some birds are thriving. There are now 90 known pairs of the little egret, a pearl coloured, elegant bodied bird which did not breed in the UK until 1996. The UK also boasts 26 pairs of whooper swan, which started breeding only in the late 80s.

A more dramatic success story has been the rise of the osprey. Only 16 pairs of the fish-eating bird of prey were reported in 1973, compared with 209 in 2012. The stone-curlew, with its distinctive yellow eyes, is making a slow recovery. Only 90 pairs were identified in 1973, compared with 473 pairs in 2012.

The avocet, the black-and-white bird that has become the RSPB's symbol, is now up to almost 2,000 pairs from just 149 in 1973.