How’s this for a culture change?

The Toronto Raptors retained their core players to short-term contracts, but shuffled every other piece of the rotation. One of the youngest playoff teams from last year got even younger as veteran role players were shipped out to create opportunities for the prospects to grow.

I wrote down some assorted thoughts on what’s next for the Raptors. I’m sorry it’s such a long piece but you’ve already been tricked into clicking this and reading is good for you.

We lost some good soldiers

Before anything else we should pay respects to the departure of Cory Joseph, Patrick Patterson, P.J. Tucker and DeMarre Carroll. None of them were perfect, but they were good people who gave great effort and accepted their roles. They were ultimately disposable in this cutthroat business, but they will be missed.

It shouldn’t have taken two decades to bring a quality Canadian player to the Raptors. Joseph’s signing was about more than just recruiting a valuable backup in his prime on a premium contract — it was about celebrating the ascent of Canadian basketball. It wasn’t a cheap homage like adding Jamaal Magloire before retirement — Joseph played a significant role for a successful franchise.

His infectious smile, Caribbean accent, and tenacious style made Joseph a fan favorite long before his legendary game-winning shot over the Washington Wizards (a small dose of revenge for 2015). Joseph will be missed most of all.

Patterson was the unheralded fourth member of the “We The North” core behind DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas. He was the last piece to directly come out of the Rudy Gay trade that changed everything for this franchise.

On his good day, when he had enough confidence to play basketball instead of neurotically over-thinking the game, Patterson was the perfect role player. He did the dirty work, he rarely touched the ball, he befriended many in the locker room, he didn’t have an ego. He was happy being Mr. Eight Points, Five Rebounds.

It’s just a shame that his four-year run ended with the worst stretch of his career. The last impression we were left with was bad Pat, who was endlessly frustrating. A knee injury, coupled with the Serge Ibaka acquisition, rendered Patterson superfluous. He lost his role, he lost his shot, he lost his confidence, and it all unraveled in the playoffs. He shot 10–36 through the postseason and was even occasionally booed. Patterson skipped exit meetings and the Raptors probably didn’t tender him an offer. He took an awful contract to play in an awful market and never acknowledged the fans on the way out (edit: Patterson thanked the fans after he officially signed in OKC).

It was the bitterest of endings but let’s not forget all the good things the Plus-Minus God did for the franchise.

Tucker is the biggest loss in terms of importance. The Raptors wanted him back and offered him a 3-year, $33-million deal but he took less to join a better team in the Rockets, so all power to him. You have to respect that he took less money to win, even though he never earned a proper NBA paycheck since his prime was spent overseas. It speaks to Tucker’s priorities.

Tucker addressed the Raptors’ long-standing weakness of being plundered by power-threes. He also provided veteran leadership that the Raptors sorely lacked from their actual leaders.

Lowry is a genius on the floor but being smarter than everyone also comes with the frustration of having to always be patient, and Lowry is anything but patient. DeRozan mostly leads by example and Ibaka hasn’t been around long enough to speak up. Tucker wasn’t either, but he truly didn’t give any fucks. On his very first game he told reporters that DeRozan needed to play better defense, and DeRozan responded with the best month of defense of his career.

Tucker was a fucking bad ass that stood up for and inspired his teammates, similar to how Bismack Biyombo did. It’s going to be hard to replace someone who will go this hard for his teammates.

Finally, the Carroll situation was just about swallowing a sunk cost. Carroll’s intentions were good, he worked his ass off every night, he was committed to the program, but his body betrayed him. He suffered a knee injury a month into his Raptors career and it was all downhill.

Losing his legs killed his jumper. His shot sprayed erratically as he was almost physically incapable of going straight up-and-down. Losing his legs killed his defense. His mind was more agile than his body, the result of which left Carroll trying moves his body couldn’t execute. He always looked awkward and pained.

Carroll became a pariah and a punching bag for the fanbase. His contract became bloated from his inability to produce, and that created frustration within the fanbase. Raptors fans plastered his social media outlets with vile hatred, and we should be collectively ashamed. Those heinous words went way beyond his basketball performance. Carroll is a good man who did so much for the community through his charities, and he was strong enough to resist retaliation. He was the bigger man but he just wasn’t cut for this job.

Each to a man, they were all good soldiers. All four players will be missed.

This is how you develop and win at the same time

The Raptors sealed their fate long ago in 2014 when they chose to keep everything together. Lowry and DeRozan as the №1 and №2 option are not a championship-caliber duo, so if they were retained, the franchise needed to rebuild through the middle.

That meant giving opportunities to their prospects, which is exactly why these four were dropped. None of Joseph, Patterson, Tucker, or Carroll were necessary, and they also happened to be expensive, so the Raptors pivoted towards giving the young players a shot to succeeding them. That allowed them to remain competitive, while also fostering a future.

The door is wide open for Delon Wright, Pascal Siakam, and Norman Powell to become rotation pieces. The same goes for Jakob Poeltl is Jonas Valanciunas is dumped. Each of them have shown enough at the developmental levels to warrant a bigger role. This is the culture change Masai Ujiri promised, and this is the most compelling reason to watch the Raptors next season.

The floor of the franchise is set by Lowry, DeRozan and Ibaka. The ceiling is dependent on the young ones. That’s how you build from the middle.

Price to dump DeMarre was high

The Raptors were stuck in a terrible bargaining position in their efforts to dump the dead weight of Carroll’s contract, but I was optimistic that they could escape this price.

There were several contract recyclers across the league, and with the bulk of free agency drawing to a close, there wasn’t any great need to dump salary to facilitate signings. I thought the market would be slightly favorable, especially if teams like Atlanta, Chicago or Phoenix jumped into the bidding for Toronto’s picks.

Losing a late 2018 first-round pick and a quality second for nothing in return is paying full price. Even if we didn’t have room for two more young players, this still hurts the Raptors’ flexibility moving forward.

We’re also stuck in the awkward position of lacking mid-tier contracts to match salaries in a trade. Ibaka, Lowry and DeRozan make too much for most teams to acquire, and nearly everyone else is on a rookie deal so the Raptors can’t absorb money in return. The only mid-tier salaries left are C.J. Miles, who we just signed, and Valanciunas, who nobody values, apparently.

That’s where the $11.8-million traded player exception comes in handy. But in order to make use of the TPE, they can only attach picks, which they now no longer have. It’s tough.

Norm finally gets his chance, and his money

Regardless of the price, dumping Carroll was a necessary move. Norman Powell should have been the starter last year, but he had to wait his turn for political reasons.

Only in our greatest moments of need would Powell be allowed to save us, which was counterproductive since if Powell was given free reign, we might not have needed saving in the first place.

Powell is a core piece moving forward. He should see starter’s run logging 30 minutes per night even if he doesn’t start. Powell will be our third option when everyone’s on the floor and promoted to second when one of DeRozan and Lowry sit. Powell’s much-improved catch-and-shoot game, coupled with explosive slashing ability, will be a dangerous option to attack closeouts and scrambling rotations when the action switches from one side of the floor to the other.

Success in a bigger role necessarily merits a bigger salary, and that’s where Carroll’s dead money will be redistributed. If Powell succeeds as a starter, he should see offers upwards of $20 million per year. Restricted status should keep his price down, but as seen with the Knicks and Tim Hardaway Jr., it only takes one rogue buyer to change the market.

Any price over $15 million for Powell will leave the Raptors in the tax, but you can swallow that for a year. Powell is a bridge to the next era and already a vital piece to this current core. Ujiri has shown a strong willingness to reward and pay his players, especially if they’re hard-working and show improvement.

This opportunity for Powell was long overdue.

It’s the same story with Wright succeeding Joseph

There was absolutely nothing wrong with Joseph. He was one of the best backup guards in the league, but the emergence of Delon Wright made Joseph replaceable. Or at the very least, Wright’s flashes of brilliance made the Joseph deal justifiable.

Wright never got extended run because of an untimely shoulder injury and incredible depth at point guard. The longest look we ever got was after All-Star Weekend when Lowry had wrist surgery. Wright was the backup to Joseph and while he was inconsistent, Wright was arguably the better player.

His per 36 minute averages during that stretch: 12.1 points, four rebounds, 4.8 assists, 36 3PT%, plus-6.4.

Wright always teased you with those moments of intrigue. His best skill at the moment is the ability to dictate tempo. Wright is methodical with his dribble without ever dominating the ball, he moves with a purpose and a certain pace, he’s shifty in the screen-and-roll and loves to snake defenders, he sees the entire floor and is a very willing passer. His feel for the game, along with his lanky frame, also allows him to be an effective defender who forces turnovers and blocks shots.

He’s also imperfect. Wright needs to look for his own shot more often and be an effective shooter from deep. Teams will gather a bigger scouting profile on him within a few months of breaking into the rotation, and Wright will need more than just guile to get by.

But there’s too much here not to take a longer look. Even though it cost the franchise a quality player in Joseph, Wright earned his chance.

C.J. Miles is necessary but not perfect

The Raptors badly needed wings who could shoot, and very few wings shot as well as C.J. Miles last season. He was one of 13 players to hit over 40 percent on over five attempts from deep last season.

Miles was prolific from the corners. He made 48.5 percent from the left corner and 53.2 percent from the right. It was 44.0 and 47.4 in 2016, 30.5 and 40.3 in 2015, 45.5 and 52.4 in 2014. That’s where he does his damage, capitalizing off drive-and-kick opportunities. There are plenty of those in the Raptors’ offense.

More importantly, Miles can stretch the floor and play an up-tempo style to suit Lowry’s game. Defenses have the book for how to guard Lowry — they double off the screen and trust that he won’t pass since nobody can make the shot. Miles can make the shot, especially on the right side of the court where he has more room to fire the lefty jumper.

Miles won’t mind if he starts or comes off the bench. He’s also shown a willingness to occasionally defend power forwards despite being undersized. The Raptors will most likely try to slot him into the role Patterson once held.

But he’s far from perfect. It’s too much to expect perfection from any small forward on the Raptors acquired through free agency while the Tracy McGrady curse lives on. Hedo Turkoglu, Linas Kleiza, Landry Fields, Rudy Gay and Carroll — it’s one disappointment after another.

Miles is prone to stretches of inconsistency, and he doesn’t create his own shot. His defensive effort is commendable but he’s far from a shutdown wing. His utility begins and ends with his ability to make a three. Miles has also never played a full season in his career.

Or put it this way: Miles shot 26 percent for 3.4 points per game in the Raptors-Pacers series of 2016. That’s a tiny sample, but we just dumped Patterson over the same thing.

But in terms of fit on the court and in the salary books, Miles is exactly what the Raptors needed. The Raptors badly needed someone to fire up five or six threes per game and capitalize on open looks from the corner. Miles also joins Lowry, Ibaka and DeRozan on the 3-year timeline, and he should be able to return assets should the Raptors decide to move him at the trade deadline in a few years. Every contender could use an affordable spot-up shooter on the wing.

The Lowry workload problem

The Raptors must somehow wean themselves off their over-dependency on Lowry. They cannot push a 31-year-old to lead the league in minutes per game simply for the sake of regular season wins.

Lowry has shown that he will break down sometime around January and his inconsistent health only exacerbates his poor playoff showings.

I honestly don’t know how this problem can be alleviated. Dwane Casey’s priorities are to win as many games as possible, and Lowry is a relentless competitor who refuses to sit. Both of them are too stubborn. The Raptors also lean heavily on Lowry for just about everything. He props up both the starting and the bench units.

Adding another playmaker should help. The Raptors play a team game when Lowry is in, but everything is set up for DeRozan to shoot when Lowry sits. I’d argue that improving this strategy starts with diversifying the offense, but they clearly love DeRozan monopolizing the ball, so the best hope would be to create better opportunities for DeRozan to score.

Who will start? Who will close?

Lowry, DeRozan, and Ibaka will be there to start and close games. The last two spots are up for grabs and should depend on the match-up, which is up to Casey. Based on how he managed his rotations last season, I’m not confident.

Continuing to start Valanciunas is fine. It’s not ideal, but he’s used to the role, it at least it keeps up appearances that he’s a starter, and it reduces wear and tear on Ibaka. But I would not finish games with Valanciunas simply because his defense is an awful weakness for the offense to attack, unless there’s the occasional possession where we badly need a rebound.

Starting either one of Miles or Powell is understandable, although I would prefer Powell. Bringing Miles off the bench to play three or four allows for more seamless defensive matching. Powell also offers more of a transition threat for an otherwise slow starting lineup. This should stretch the floor vertically.

Closing games is a tougher question. Ibaka will play center, which leaves two forward slots to fill depending on if they need a score or a stop.

Going with Powell and Miles works best on offense. That combines the four best shooters on the team with three threats who can slash and score at the rim. But this lineup also happens to be extremely undersized and would struggle on the glass and with bulkier teams.

A defensive alignment could see Miles or Powell with a legitimate power forward like Siakam or OG Anunoby who can bring size and activity. Someone will need to crash the glass when Ibaka rotates over to contest shots.

The best solution would be to find someone like Tucker who can rebound, provide physicality, while also hitting a corner three at a reliable rate. Too bad he picked the Rockets.

The Raptors are really small

This all speaks to a bigger problem in that the Raptors are really undersized, which hurts them most on defense.

Lowry is a bulldog but he’s still a sub-six-foot guard. DeRozan is big for his position but he rarely gives effort on defense. Powell is tenacious with long arms but he’s 6-foot-4 and too small for power threes. The power forward slot is a complete toss-up. Ibaka is undersized at center, especially on back-to-backs when his activity level is lower. Valanciunas is big but he’s clueless on defense so it almost doesn’t even matter.

This core always needed a physical and active defender to cover their weaknesses. Tucker and Biyombo were great in these roles, and hopefully Anuonby can quickly graduate into this role. Otherwise this will remain an Achilles’ heel for the team, especially if they run into LeBron James or even Giannis Antetokounmpo.

(Sidebar: I’ve abandoned any hope of beating LeBron. It’s just not possible with this core. It’s not even possible with the talent that Boston acquired. You need an elite player to beat the most elite player in the league and we have two fringe top-20 talents. Shuffling the periphery players doesn’t matter. It is what it is.)

Where does Jonas fit?

We’ve gone too far with the slander against Valanciunas. He’s obviously not perfect but he’s not a bad player, yet we only focus on his negatives. I’m as guilty of this as anyone.

Valanciunas’ fatal flaw is that he can’t read the game, which hurts him on defense and limits him on offense. He needs every instruction fed to him, and any deviation is an invitation for a mistake. There’s no dynamism to his game and it limits the entire team.

However, this is not an uncommon problem, and plenty of players succeed in spite of this weakness. Valanciunas remains productive by virtue of his size and touch. He affects the game when he plays with energy around the basket, chasing after offensive rebounds and bulldozing his way to the rim. He’s also an effective screener and a reliable finisher in pick-and-roll. A determined and empowered Valanciunas is capable of flattening a smallball team, as evidenced by his 18-point, 23-rebound performance against the Boston Celtics last season. The Raptors don’t have anybody else who can replicate those numbers.

The Raptors are willing to move on from Valanciunas, but the market doesn’t value his skillset right now. His contract was a bargain in the year he signed it, but attitudes and finances have changed dramatically this summer. This is the worst time to move his deal. Losing a young rotation piece for nothing doesn’t make sense.

As noted earlier, allowing Valanciunas to keep his starting role is fine so long as the Raptors close games with Ibaka (which is already Casey’s preference.) Giving Jonas a seven-minute run, then bringing him back for about four minutes to start with the bench unit, gives him roughly 22 minutes per night.

It would be easier for everyone if Valanciunas could lose 20 pounds this summer and come back with improved endurance. He sometimes got winded after just three sprints last season, and he didn’t have any lift on his shot contests. That’s unacceptable, especially when his success is largely dependent on his activity. Adding a consistent jumper that he’s willing to shoot without pump faking would also help.

More moves are coming

The roster is imbalanced with too many centers and not enough wings. The Raptors also have another open roster spot to fill.

PGs: Lowry, Wright, VanVleet

Wings: DeRozan, Powell, Miles, Caboclo, Anunoby, McKinnie, Miller

Bigs: Ibaka, Valanciunas, Poeltl, Siakam, Nogueira, Meeks

My best guess is that Ujiri brings in a veteran power forward on a one-year deal. But he’ll probably have to wait a week before the market really grinds to a halt. Names like Ersan Ilyasova, JaMychal Green, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Tony Allen, Jonas Jerebko and Nikola Mirotic are probably holding out for a longer deal, but the Raptors really shouldn’t commit to any of them for longer than two seasons.

I’d rank those names as such:

1. Ilyasova

2. Mirotic

3. Green

4. Allen

5. Jerekbo

6. Mbah a Moute

The goal should still be to have a prospect eventually succeed into the full-time role, but we need more depth. I’m slightly favoring shooting over defense for the time being.

What should we expect next season?

Best case scenario: 54 wins. Powell is an impact starter who drills threes and gets to the cup. Siakam is a bench power forward with upside. Wright is an excellent bench guard. Lowry stays healthy. DeRozan passes more and picks up a 3-ball.

Realistic scenario: 48 wins. Powell is an impact starter. Siakam is a decent bench power forward. Wright can’t handle point and it becomes a weakness that puts more minutes on Lowry’s plate so he gets hurt. DeRozan is the same.

Worst case scenario: None of the young guys are any good. Masai Ujiri leaves for the Knicks all of a sudden and President Trump triggers nuclear war with North Korea. Raptors are irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.