PUNE: The heat will be more bearable in several states this year, but there may be no respite from heat waves in the country, the latest outlook for summer by India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicates.The season’s average temperatures from March to May 2019 are likely to be normal over most weather subdivisions.However, Himachal Pradesh, West Rajasthan, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Arunachal Pradesh are likely to be warmer than normal by 0.5 to 1 degree.The met department has forecast normal to slightly above normal heat wave conditions in the core zone of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh , Chhattisgarh , Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana and the meteorological subdivisions of Marathawada, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh .A heat wave is a period of unusually hot weather that typically lasts two or more days. Severe heat wave conditions prevailed on the first and last few days of April 2018 in some parts of northwestern and central parts of the country.The weather department said there is about 37% probability of above normal maximum temperatures in the core heat wave zone between March and May 2019.Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, head (services) and head of the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, IMD in New Delhi, said heat wave conditions in the core zone may be normal to slightly above normal.“Models also indicate that the maximum temperatures in the core heat wave zone may be slightly higher than normal temperatures. The number of heat wave days in this zone may increase if the maximum temperature increases over the core zone,” he added.For parts of Maharashtra, the forecast means likely normal to above normal heat wave conditions this summer. But the subdivisions of Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha may have a more bearable summer than the last few years. The ‘average’ temperatures for these subdivisions may be near normal.Pune, Nashik, Jalgaon, Malegaon, Satara, Sangli are some places that fall under Madhya Maharashtra subdivision. Last year, by March-end temperature had hit 40 degrees C in over 50% of locations in state. As many as 14 met stations of the 29 had day temperature either touching 40 degrees C or crossing that mark.A K Srivastava, head of climate monitoring and analysis at IMD, Pune, said one of the reasons for the near normal summer temperatures in most subdivisions expected this summer could be the increase in the frequency of western disturbances.“The last winter season too saw an increase in the number of western disturbances. A similar increase in the frequency of western disturbances was seen in 1997. When western disturbances increase, chances of precipitation rise, which may help cool down the temperatures slightly,” he added.Another IMD official said chances of slightly above normal heat wave conditions this summer could also be because the season coincides with an El Nino event.“An El Nino has already formed which is bound to impact summer temperatures. Earlier, we had said that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean were observed to exceed the El Nino threshold, yet an El Nino was not declared because the atmosphere was not responding to it. The atmosphere started responding to the temperature increase in the last week of February. Hence, meteorologists are saying that El Nino has already developed,” he said.An agriculture expert said fields are not under cultivation between March and May, especially in west Vidarbha and Marathwada, and hence there is not much demand for water.“However, water is needed only sugar cane, orchards and vegetables which are grown in this season. But these crops come up near irrigation facilities. With near normal temperatures expected this summer in most parts of state, there may not be much aggravation in the drought conditions,” the expert said.However, more soil moisture evaporation can take place during higher than normal heatwave events. But it may not affect agriculture as most crops have been harvested, the expert said.