There is only one thing on the minds of the Canadian men’s national team: qualifying for the FIFA World Cup in 2022.

The numbers, however, might be against Canada, at least when it comes to FIFA’s world rankings. If past rankings are any indication, qualifying for the World Cup when ranked No. 76 will be an uphill battle for the Canadians.

Coach John Herdman’s squad is likely to automatically qualify for the 2026 iteration of the tournament as co-hosts of the competition, set to be held in Canada, the United States and Mexico.

But before that, the Englishman wants his team to earn a spot in the upcoming World Cup in Qatar four years on merit alone.

All signs point to improvements on the Canadian side as the team prepares to face St. Kitts and Nevis in its third CONCACAF Nations League qualifying match next Sunday.

The Canadians aim to finish in the top 10 of 34 nations qualifying for the league, securing a spot at the Gold Cup and in League A of next year’s inaugural Nations League competition, which would pit Canada against heavyweights in the region such as the United States, Mexico, Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago and Honduras.

A win in next week’s game would see Canada improve to a perfect 4-0-0 in a calendar year, a first in the history of the men’s program. The Canadians current ranking of 76th is their highest since 2013.

Herdman believes the team will teeter around that mark until the team comes up against a higher-ranked nation and posts a result, either a win or a tie, that “will really propel Canada forward.” It is when Canada is punching above its weight — in tournaments like the Gold Cup, which the Canadians would qualify for with that top-10 Nations League finish — that it could see its stock climb significantly.

The ranking system, which had been criticized in the past, prompting a change to the process in August of this year, is now determined by adding or subtracting points based on the result of a match, rather than averaging game points over a given period of time, a method FIFA previously employed. The points are partially determined by the importance of the game and the relative strength of the two opponents, “including the logical expectation that teams higher in the rankings should fare better against teams lower in the rankings,” according to the governing body’s website.

“I think we’re getting closer to that,” Herdman said during a conference call after announcing his roster for next week’s game.

“I think League of Nations Group A, we’ve targeted that as a critical part of our path to World Cup qualification … so we’ve got to take care of business in four games and then we get a shot at playing these higher ranked teams,” he said. “That’s where you can really start to push the FIFA rankings.”

Canada will have to make a significant leap forward in the next two years to be considered World Cup contenders.

Historically, the 32 teams that qualify for tournament — which will expand to 48 teams eight years from now — generally sit within the top 50, though outliers do exist. North Korea is the lowest-ranked team to qualify for the competition at No. 105, followed by South Africa at No. 83 and New Zealand at No. 78. All three teams played in the 2010 World Cup, where South Africa qualified as the host.

In the most recent World Cup this past summer, the two lowest-ranked teams were Russia (70), who qualified as the host, and Saudi Arabia (67).

Canada has held an average rank of 80 since FIFA created the rankings in 1993. The team’s largest jump in a calendar year was 28 spots in 2009; at its worst, Canada fell 37 spots in 2010.

Should the Canadians finish in the top 10 in qualifying, the opportunity to make significant stride will be there. But there is also the risk that if Canada, which sits seventh in CONCACAF rankings, isn’t ready to take that step forward, their spot in the global game could be negatively affected.

As Canada tracks its process, with Herdman acknowledging the accumulation of ranking points will be important going forward, it can look to last year’s Gold Cup for inspiration.

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Herdman credited the team’s previous regime under head coach Octavio Zambrano for some “good work” done in that tournament. The Canadians reached the quarter-finals of that tournament, tying higher-ranked Costa Rica and Honduras in the round robin before losing narrowly to higher-ranked Jamaica in the knockout round.

For now, Herdman will take it one game at a time and hope his prediction — that qualifying for the World Cup will affect the ranking and not the other way around — proves correct.

“It’s a process. (Sunday’s match) is an important step so this game is critical. It’s an important period of Canadian football and if we drop the ball here it could cost us later, down the road.”