Dallas Keuchel Continues to Carve Up Hitters Despite Low Velocity

Keuchel has a perfect 9–0 record and a Major League best 1.67 ERA

MLB.com

Watching Dallas Keuchel pitch is a treat to watch. He’s a prime example of a control pitcher who relies on location and his off-speed pitches. This year he’s experiencing one of the best starts of his six-year big league career, leading the majors in both ERA and wins. According to statcast, Keuchel’s average fastball velocity this season is 88.6 mph. In an era where almost every pitcher in the big leagues throws 95 plus, how does the Astros ace endure so much success despite a lack of fastball velocity? Let’s examine.

Great Secondary Stuff Complements the Fastball

Keuchel relies on a two-seam fastball that creates a lot of sink, resulting in a lot of ground ball outs for the left-hander. He’s induced ground balls 67.4% of the time this season. But the interesting part is this — spin rate has became a hot topic within the baseball world this past year. The more spin rate you have on a given pitch, the harder it is for a hitter to square it up — especially on a curveball. But for Keuchel, he generates an average of 1983.00 (rpm) on his two-seam fastball. The major league average on a two seam is 2139.00 rpm’s. With a pitch like that, you would want less spin because it makes it a lot more difficult for a hitter to make the right type of contact (look at a knuckleball, the reason it’s harder to hit is because it has nearly zero spin). Despite the high 80’s velocity on the two-seamer, the movement has made up for the lack of zip behind the pitch. That’s been Keuchel’s go-to offering, but the slider and changeup have been just as important.

Hitters have compiled a dismal .130 average against Keuchel’s slider this year. It sweeps right across the zone and creates a ton of swing and misses as it crosses two planes. The slider has created the most whiffs for Keuchel this season. Against righties he’s started the slider in the middle of the plate with filthy break right under their hands, making it nearly impossible to square up. With the lefty-vs-lefty matchups Keuchel sweeps the pitch right across the zone, starting the pitch in on their hands and then breaking right across the zone. Whether it’s a righty or lefty at the dish, the pitch has been spectacular.

The changeup has great arm-side tail with a nice velocity difference from the two-seamer. This pitch has created many swing and misses as well. His changeup makes the fastball seem a lot quicker when he pitches backwards, making the heater seem like it’s coming in at 95, even though it’s only 88. He mixes in a cutter that creates a lot of ground balls, especially when it busts hitters in on their hands. He does throw a four-seamer, but not very often. Opposing lineups have a .353 average against the four-seam fastball this year.

As you can see, the reason Dallas Keuchel has a lot of success is because of the wide repertoire of pitches in his arsenal with superb command, and the type of movement he gets on all these different offerings. His ability to throw the secondary offerings for strikes early in counts makes it very difficult for batters to know what pitch is coming, and it also speeds up the heater when you start off an at bat with off-speed pitches.

But one of the most drastic reasons Keuchel has success is the deception in his delivery.

Deception

If you look at the video below, you can see a slow-mo look of Keuchel’s delivery. He hides the ball extremely well when he winds up, with minimal arm swing as he strides towards the plate. He comes right behind his back side when his arm swings up to rear back. The throwing arm doesn’t swing behind his back at all, which prohibits hitters from tracking the ball.

From experience, I can say it is difficult to hit off a pitcher who hides the ball this well. Regardless if a pitcher throws hard or not, when you can’t pick up the ball until it’s nearly out of their hand, its hard to hit. There is absolutely no doubt that if Keuchel didn't have this type of deception, he probably wouldn’t have the type of success he’s had. Marco Estrada is another great example of the same type of pitcher. He relies on movement and his off-speed pitches. Without Estrada’s changeup, he wouldn’t be the same pitcher. But just like Keuchel, Estrada is deceptive and hides the ball extremely well in his delivery.

Velocity is certainly not the be all to end all. Dallas Keuchel has proven that statement to be 100% true. Command, deception, and keeping hitters guessing — that’s exactly what has made him successful this year.