Metrolinx has released a report stating the first phase of the Relief Line subway must be in operation before the TTC’s Yonge line is extended to Richmond Hill, potentially dealing a blow to York Region leaders anxious to bring Toronto’s subway network to their constituents’ doorsteps.

An update released Thursday by Metrolinx, the provincial agency in charge of regional transit planning, says that ridership forecasts show the “Relief Line South needs to be in operation before the Yonge North Subway Extension.” The document will be discussed at Metrolinx’s board meeting next week.

The statement appears to signal a change in Metrolinx’s position on the sequencing of the two politically charged subway projects. Previous reports from the agency suggested the Yonge North Extension could be built without overloading the TTC network, and that both the Yonge project and the relief line should proceed together “in an integrated way.”

TTC officials and other proponents of the Relief Line have long argued it should take priority because it’s desperately needed to relieve crowding on Line 1 (Yonge-University-Spadina), which already regularly operates above capacity.

The Yonge North Extension would push Line 1 to Richmond Hill, and would only add passengers to the Yonge subway.

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In an interview Thursday, Markham Mayor Frank Scarpitti, a vocal proponent of the Yonge Extension, called the new Metrolinx report “an about face” and said the agency has “some explaining to do.”

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He suggested Metrolinx was kowtowing to the interests of Toronto and its mayor.

“Maybe Metrolinx has become ‘Torontolinx,’ I’m not sure. Maybe Mayor (John) Tory got appointed to the chair of ‘Torontolinx’ overnight,” he said.

Scarpitti asserted the “Yonge subway is not going to take a back seat to any project in the GTA” and called on Premier Doug Ford to publicly confirm the provincial government will proceed with both projects.

In 2017, Scarpitti and other York Region leaders formed a strategic agreement with Tory to urge the provincial Liberal government of the day to advance both the Relief Line and Yonge Extension at the same time. But that alliance has since become strained.

Don Peat, a spokesperson for Tory, said the Toronto mayor has “been clear that the Relief Line must be built before the Yonge line can be extended north.”

In January, Tory announced plans to speed up construction of the Relief Line by at least two years, by accelerating $325 million in spending for early works for the project.

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That would put its opening date at 2029.

“The mayor is committed to getting shovels in the ground for the Relief Line and the Metrolinx report released today is further evidence of why we must get on with building transit in Toronto,” Peat said.

It’s not clear why Metrolinx’s position on the Relief Line timing has evolved since earlier reports. But its position on transit projects could take on increasing importance, as it’s the agency that would take charge of the TTC subway system if the Ontario PC government follows through on plans to upload ownership of the network to the province.

Opponents of the upload have warned the Conservatives might be more willing to build the Yonge line north into the GTA suburbs where the party has strong political support, rather than building a new subway downtown.

Transportation Minister Jeff Yurek may have calmed some of those fears in recent months by emphasizing the government’s commitment to the Relief Line.

On Thursday, a spokesperson for the minister responded to the Star’s questions by citing a November letter Yurek sent to Tory about the upload plan, in which he stated that, given Line 1’s capacity problems, work on the Relief Line “must be undertaken as quickly as possible.”

The first phase of the Relief Line would run for 7.4 kilometres and connect the eastern end of Line 2 (Bloor-Danforth) to Line 1 at Queen and Osgoode stations downtown.

The Yonge Extension would run 7.4 kilometres north from Finch Station and terminate at Richmond Hill Centre.

Early estimates indicate the first phase of the Relief Line would cost at least $6.8 billion, while the Yonge Extension would run $5.6 billion.

The Metrolinx report asserts that, even with the first phase of the Relief Line in operation, if the Yonge Extension is built, the network will be over capacity by 2041.

A second phase of the Relief Line that would push the subway up to Sheppard Ave. would be required by that time to prevent the system from exceeding capacity.

The Metrolinx presentation didn’t include figures to back up its analysis. An agency spokesperson said it would be “premature” to release the data because Metrolinx is still working on its business case for the first phase of the Relief Line.

Ben Spurr is a Toronto-based reporter covering transportation. Reach him by email at bspurr@thestar.ca or follow him on Twitter: @BenSpurr

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