POLL: Non-voters' dislike of Donald Trump isn't likely to make them vote in 2018

Marilyn Icsman | USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — Millions of Americans stay home every election, and the 2018 midterms are unlikely to be much different despite broad disapproval of President Trump and discontent with the direction of the country, according to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.

Those who regularly skip a trip to the polls cite a broad array of factors driving their lack of participation. Some say they don't trust politicians, or they don't think their vote will change anything. Others say the electoral choices are uninspiring, or they simply don't have the time and transport to get to their local polling place.

In a nationwide survey of 800 infrequent or unregistered voters, 56% of poll respondents said they felt the country was on the wrong track and nearly 55% rated Trump unfavorably. Yet 83% of those polled said they are “not very likely” or “not at all likely” to vote in 2018. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 3.47 percent.

Fifteen percent of unregistered voters said their vote “doesn’t count” or “won’t make a difference.” Nine percent of registered voters said the same.

Nearly 63% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed with the statement: “I don’t pay much attention to politics because nothing ever gets done – it’s a bunch of empty promises.” And 68% agreed or strongly agreed with this sentiment: “I don’t pay much attention to politics because it is so corrupt.”

"Even if there is a surge in turnout, a majority of America will not vote in November," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "It’s a chilling story to tell. These people don’t vote. They could hate Trump, but they could still not vote because they hate political parties, they hate Democrats, they hate the bureaucracy, they hate the infighting, the negativity, all of that."

The voter turnout rate for midterm elections is reliably lower than for presidential elections. In 2014, only 36% of eligible voters actually voted, while 144 million stayed home.

An overwhelming majority of those polled said they would vote if it meant they might swing a presidential election — 83% of people who would prefer Trump in 2020 said they would vote in that circumstance, and 86% of those who would support the Democratic nominee said they would vote if they could influence the outcome.

When asked for the first word or phrase that came to mind when they heard the name Donald Trump, one in four respondents gave positive answers, including "favorable/like him" (9%) and “doing a good job/trying his best” (5%), while others were critical, calling him “idiot/jerk/ass” (11%) or “ignorant/moron/stupid/dumb” (6%).

Most respondents identified themselves as moderate (36%), followed by conservative (21%) and liberal (11%).

While 12% said they will vote or probably try to vote in the 2018 elections, 11.5% said that only “different/better candidates” would motivate them to vote.

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In follow-up interviews with those surveyed, voting along party lines was less important than finding a candidate they believed would deliver on promises.

Glenda Hand, a 44-year-old licensed practical nurse from Pensacola, Fla., said she will only vote in the midterms if strong candidates emerge.

“I’ve got to see what they’re talking about,” Hand said. “Even though I’m a Democrat, if they're talking foolishness, then I'm not going to vote for them.”

Many dissatisfied with the two-party system

Many non-voters want more than two choices when it comes to voting in a general election. Only 22% of those surveyed thought the Democratic and Republican parties were enough, while 56% said a third party or multiple parties are necessary.

“There should be another candidate, another party," Isaac Horner, 44, who lives in Tucson, Ariz. "I believe they need to purge the system, because none of these people are going to sacrifice their well being for anyone else."

Frustration with candidates’ “broken promises” came up frequently in follow-up interviews, along with a pervasive feeling that politicians are “only looking out for themselves.”

“I don't trust them any more as far as the promises that are made, because the follow-through is very minimal and because Congress doesn't act,” Belinda Santana, a 68-year-old in-home healthcare worker from Salinas, Calif., said. “Throughout the years you’re being told your vote counts — no it doesn't.”

Obama voters are still waiting

The survey results suggest former President Obama is the type of inspirational candidate that persuades infrequent voters to vote, Paleologos said. One part of the survey focused on respondents who did not plan to vote in the midterms and also did not vote in the last presidential election.

More than half (52%) of those people last voted when Obama was on the ballot in 2008 and 2012. And a disproportionate number voted for Obama (85% in 2008 and 87% in 2012).

"Barack Obama's strong support in the 2008 and 2012 elections brought voters of all races to the polls, including white voters," Paleologos said. "When Obama was no longer on the ballot, some of these voters just walked away. Democrats can't underestimate the value of a young, inspirational nominee."

Obama was one of several names that came up when respondents were asked who would "definitely" motivate them to register and vote in a presidential election. The top responses were Bernie Sanders (7%), Joe Biden (4%), Donald Trump (4%) and Michelle Obama (4%).

Justin Cohn, a finance worker from Brooklyn, N.Y., said he only voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 because she was the “lesser of two evils.”

“I would have voted for Bernie Sanders,” said Cohn, 34, an independent. “Mostly because I agreed more with his policies and he wants to change things in a way that would be fundamentally better for young people.”

David Hansen, a 62-year-old church music director from South Portland, Maine, also said he would have voted for Sanders if he had been nominated in 2016.

“At this point I would think it would be great if Elizabeth Warren were running, and I certainly like Joe Biden. I think they would make a good ticket,” Hansen said.

Yet these suggestions were dwarfed by the percentage of people (32%) who said no one could get them to vote.

“I registered to vote but never fulfilled the voting aspect of it,” said Horner, the Tucson respondent. “Nothing’s been changing no matter how many times you see that promise... When you look at it, it’s the same old people over and over again.”

Some non-voters cite 'lack of information'

Many infrequent voters cite a lack of information about candidates as their reason not to vote. Thirty-nine percent of respondents said they follow politics most of the time, while 25% said they follow what’s going on in government and public affairs some of the time. The rest said they follow politics only now and then (17%) or hardly at all (17%).

Another possible barrier facing non-voters is inconvenience. A combined 13% of unregistered voters said they were not registered because it was “difficult to vote” or they were “too busy/no time/out of town." A combined 11% of registered voters said the same for why they did not vote.

Mitch Bender, a 28-year-old from Kewaunee, Wis., said he has never voted but he doesn't have transportation to the nearest polling place.

“It would be better if they had more voting stations throughout the state and not just in bigger cities," he said. "Or a way for people who can't get to the voting stations to get there, like a number to call to get a ride to voting stations.”