Sometimes a chart is nearly all you need to understand the story. This is one of those times.



Military vs. Non-Military Durable Goods









click on chart for sharper image



Durable Goods Shipments Down 20%



With that stunning graphic out of the way, please consider some interesting factoids from Why a Recovery May Still Feel Like a Recession.





Durable goods shipments fell by more than 20 percent during this recession, and would have declined further were it not for increased production of weapons.

In no previous downturn since 1958, when the figures began being recorded, had the decline been as much as 14 percent.

The drop is all the more remarkable because such shipments rose at a relatively restrained rate in the preceding period of economic growth, particularly when military sales were excluded.

In June, seasonally adjusted shipments for civilian purposes were 19 percent below the average monthly figure for 2000. Shipments of military items were running 123 percent above the 2000 average.

Those figures are in nominal dollars, not adjusted for inflation. That fact may exaggerate the trend, since prices of some durable goods, like computers, have fallen over the years.



