Dick Vermeil: 'Biggest mistake' Detroit Lions could make would be firing Matt Patricia

Dave Birkett | Detroit Free Press

Show Caption Hide Caption Detroit Lions face prolific Bucs, but they can win. Is that good? Talking Lions-Buccaneers in Week 15, a quick disagreement on Chase Young and whether a Lions win is good for organization. Recorded Dec. 13, 2019.

When Dick Vermeil’s second season as St. Louis Rams coach ended with more losses than his first, he sat down for a postseason meeting with then-team president John Shaw and showed Shaw film of all the improvements the Rams had made, individually, schematically and as a team.

“It didn’t mean a lot to him, because he’s a president, a lawyer, not a football guy,” Vermeil recalled this week. “But I told him, ‘Eventually, the accumulation of improved football play by each position, the team gets better.’

“You can measure progress, but you have to do it as a coach.”

Vermeil saw progress where others didn’t.

The Rams went 5-11 in 1997 and finished in last place in the NFC West. A year later, they went 4-12 and had a worse point differential.

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But in 1999, Vermeil’s third season in St. Louis, he made sweeping changes to his coaching staff, bringing Mike Martz in as offensive coordinator and parting ways with Jerry Rhome, and bigger changes to team personnel — Kurt Warner, salvaged from the Arena Football League, had one of the most magical seasons ever by a quarterback, and the Rams acquired Hall-of-Fame running back Marshall Faulk in an offseason trade — and led the Rams on one of the most improbable Super Bowl runs in NFL history.

For Vermeil, it was the second time in as many coaching stops that he posted losing records in his first two years only to experience great success later down the line.

As Philadelphia Eagles coach from 1976-82, Vermeil followed 4-10 and 5-9 seasons with a 9-7 record and a wildcard appearance in 1978. By 1980, the Eagles were NFC East champions and playing in the Super Bowl.

It’s with his own personal experience in mind that Vermeil told the Free Press this week “the biggest mistake (Detroit Lions) ownership could make” would be firing Matt Patricia as head coach.

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With three games left in his second season, Patricia has come under increasing public fire for the Lions’ regression on the field.

He inherited a team coming off back-to-back nine-win seasons and has so far led them to nine total wins in 29 games. Last year, the Lions went 6-10 in what was billed as a one-step-back-to-take-two-forward season, but this year, the Lions have fallen even further, losing six straight and nine of their last 10 games. At 3-9-1 heading into Sunday’s game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they're guaranteed a last-place finish in the NFC North.

Vermeil, who does not know Patricia, said he’s attended one NFL game in person this year: The Lions’ Week 3 win over the Philadelphia Eagles, and he was impressed with what he saw.

“To start all over again, especially after losing your quarterback, my God,” Vermeil said. “You got to be careful. I say this, you can’t allow the fans and the media to make business, quality coaching decisions. And I really believe sometimes there are cities and organizations that are influenced by the radio talk shows and what the media says. Boy, it can kill you.”

Patricia has tried unsuccessfully to calm the fears of disgruntled Lions fans several times in recent weeks.

He championed the team-building process for the first time after the Lions lost on the road to a bad Washington team in late November, then insisted after last week’s loss to the Minnesota Vikings the Lions are better than their record indicates.

“I know there’s been a lot of coaches that have taken over programs and have really tried to start and build something and work from the bottom and try to grow on it and build it, and I know what those records look like, too, when those guys have all started out,” Patricia said. “So for me, I try not to look at that stuff. I just try to look at each week. So right now, for next week, that’s the biggest thing for us.”

Patricia declined to say which coaches he was referring to, but the list of NFL coaches with similar starts who’ve gone on to experience any kind of success is a short one.

According to ESPN, just four coaches since 1980 have started their coaching tenure with back-to-back losing seasons and gone on to win a Super Bowl with the same team: Vermeil, Pete Carroll (Seattle Seahawks), Jimmy Johnson (Dallas Cowboys) and Bill Walsh (San Francisco 49ers).

Even Bill Belichick, Patricia’s close friend and mentor with the New England Patriots, had to change jobs before he came of age as a coach. Belichick started his tenure as Cleveland Browns coach with three straight losing seasons and was fired from that post after five years. He has since won six Super Bowls with the Patriots.

“Certainly, there’s inspiration like that, I think, all the way across the board with a lot of great coaches,” Patricia said this week. “I think that’s the truth.”

It’s also true that Patricia stepped into a different situation than Belichick and others.

Carroll took over a 5-11 team in Seattle and went 7-9 in consecutive seasons before winning 11 games — and finding his franchise quarterback — in Year 3. Johnson inherited a 3-13 team in 1989, drafted his Hall of Fame quarterback in the first round and won one game his second year before experiencing Super Bowl success. Walsh took over a 2-14 team in 1979, drafted Joe Montana the same year, and won his first Super Bowl two seasons later.

Belichick’s situation is perhaps most similar to Patricia’s in that he took over a .500 team in New England, but like the others he found success only after drafting his future Hall-of-Fame quarterback.

The Lions, though more historically inept as a franchise than the others, made the playoffs twice in four seasons under Patricia’s predecessor, Jim Caldwell, and got excellent play from quarterback Matthew Stafford this year before he suffered broken bones in his back.

Stafford has missed the Lions’ last five games and is not expected to play again this year.

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“I’ve always felt this,” Vermeil said. “The deeper the philosophy, the better the coach, the more difficult the first year can be. Because you change everything. You change organization, you change schemes, you change how people play their individual positions, and many times your first year you make them worse before you make them better. In fact, I think sometimes if you’re really coaching, you make them worse before you make them better that first year.”

Vermeil was able to see through complete philosophical overhauls in Philadelphia and St. Louis in part because he enjoyed the unbridled support of ownership, something it’s unclear if Patricia has in Detroit, as neither owner Martha Firestone Ford nor her daughter, Sheila, have addressed his future.

With the Rams, Vermeil, who twice worked for the team as an assistant, was pursued several times for head-coaching openings before finally agreeing to return to the team in 1997.

In Detroit, Patricia was hired by general manager Bob Quinn, whose future with the team also seems tenuous. Along with their struggles on the field, the Lions are dealing with widespread fan apathy, to the point they were giving away tickets to Sunday’s game as part of a Thanksgiving-time promotion to season-ticket holders and offering special $15 tickets to Ford employees.

Vermeil said he sees the Lions as a “discipline-coached football team” that is “lacking in talent certain places,” but plays hard and is tough and well-prepared.

“I left the game impressed with them,” he said. “I told a lot of friends of mine, this is an improving football program.”

Even now, amid a losing streak that’s approaching 49 days, Vermeil said he thinks that’s the case. He compared the Lions’ two years under Patricia to a golfer learning how to swing again, and said he sees the “negative improvement” that comes with learning how to win the right way.

“I really think the Ford program, Ford ownership, has been more patient than most owners ever would be,” Vermeil said. “I mean, and I respect that. And I think if they maintain that intelligence, maintain that philosophy, they’ll be rewarded.”

Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.Read more on the Detroit Lions and sign up for our Lions newsletter.