With the absence of Game of Thrones, the stage is set for other shows to have their night – but will voters look beyond favourites for more daring fare?

Outstanding drama series

The absence of Game of Thrones means the question is: will the rebel robot western Westworld continue HBO’s domination? It leads the pack with 22 nominations, but Netflix has three shows in contention and Hulu could scrape its first best drama win for its stunning and terrifying adaptation of Margaret Atwood’s The Handmaid’s Tale.

But first, a look at the no-hopers: Better Call Saul proves more excellent the further it gets from Breaking Bad, but that show didn’t win an Emmy until season five, so creator Vince Gilligan may still have to wait for another late bloomer. Meanwhile, House of Cards becomes more ludicrous and messy with each passing season – and if it didn’t win the last few years, it’s got no chance now.

There is some fresh blood in the category: Netflix’s royal family saga The Crown took the top prize at the Golden Globes, and has 13 nominations here. It was sumptuous television (and surely the only show to ever dramatise Britain’s great smog of 1952), but it didn’t get America watching and weeping together like This Is Us, the breakout network hit of last autumn. But it was the 80s nostalgia, the return of Winona, the welcome to Millie Bobby Brown and the terrifying underworld of Stranger Things that really got everyone talking this year – and is surely the favourite here. KA

Should win: The Handmaid’s Tale

Will win: Stranger Things

Outstanding comedy series

A quick glance at the history books suggests this category is Veep’s for the taking: once Emmy voters coalesce around a comedy, they tend to stick with it – witness the five-in-a-row victories for Frasier and Modern Family, as well as three consecutive victories for 30 Rock. Veep meanwhile, has taken home the spiffy gold statuette for the past two years, and when you consider that Julia Louis-Dreyfus has won the lead comedy actress gong for the past five years, it’s fairly clear that HBO’s satire of governmental incompetence is very much an Emmy darling.

Veep’s likely dominance masks the fact that this is a hugely strong category, full of shows at the top of their game, from Mike Judge’s brilliantly caustic revenge on the nerds, Silicon Valley, to the remarkable socially conscious sitcommery of Black-ish, and Aziz Ansari’s delightfully digressive everything-com Master of None. (It’s only really Modern Family, now thoroughly in decline, that is letting the team down here.) Best of all, of course, is Donald Glover’s fever dream of a 30-minute comedy, Atlanta, the first season of which felt like the sort of once-in-a-generation work that should win everything going, but sadly won’t. GM

Should win: Atlanta

Will win: Veep

Facebook Twitter Pinterest A worthy (potential) winner: Elizabeth Moss in The Handmaid’s Tale. Photograph: MGM/Hulu

Outstanding lead actress in a drama

If the Emmys go the same route as the Golden Globes, Claire Foy will walk away with this for her brilliant, aptly buttoned-up depiction of Queen Elizabeth II. Evan Rachel Wood could well be in contention, too, for her portrayal of the big-eyed prairie bot who morphs into Dolores the lawless.

But if there’s any justice, this is Elisabeth Moss’s for the taking. She’s an Emmys favourite – nominated eight times before – but this fully deserves to be her first win. Her depiction of Offred in Margaret Atwood’s hellish dystopia of Gilead was haunting, agonisingly timely and made all the more impressive because Moss played much of the part in silence. Elsewhere, Viola Davis is an outside bet, while Keri Russell and Robin Wright feel like also-rans. KA



Should win: Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale

Will win: Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale

Outstanding lead actor in a drama

It’s hard to look beyond one of NBC’s emotional hit This Is Us in this category. Sterling K Brown or Milo Ventimiglia would be worthy winners in a section which is lacking a real stand-out frontrunner. The category has a history of sticking with dark and brooding portrayals of American masculinity (Jon Hamm’s Don Draper; Bryan Cranston in Breaking Bad), which made Rami Malek’s win last year feel like a well-deserved bit of recognition for the type of performance that doesn’t often chime with Emmy voters.

A curveball could come in the form of Anthony Hopkins for his performance as robot whisperer Dr Robert Ford in Westworld, but a more justified winner would come from the category’s perennial no-hopers. Kevin Spacey (House of Cards), Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan) and Matthew Rhys (The Americans) have perfected the art of showing up in a tux and being mostly ignored. Of the three, Rhys probably deserves it for his brilliant performance as a Russian agent in The Americans. It’s long been a favourite with critics, and with its finale airing this awards cycle maybe, just maybe, Rhys will pull off a piece of award-season espionage. LB

Should win: Matthew Rhys, The Americans

Will win: Milo Ventimiglia, This Is Us

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Aziz Ansari in Master of None. Photograph: AP

Outstanding lead actor in a comedy

The smart money will be on Jeffrey Tambor for this one. He managed to wrestle away this category from Jim Parsons of The Big Bang Theory in 2014 and hasn’t given it up since. This Emmys category doesn’t treat auteurs very kindly, which might mean Donald Glover – the showrunner and star of critical favourite Atlanta – and Aziz Ansari might be out of luck. Louis CK was always overlooked for Louie and Ansari and Glover are very much of the same lineage, putting a focus on quality and originality with their respective shows. Glover’s wins at the Golden Globes might give him an edge, though.

Elsewhere, Anthony Anderson is the most likely of the other contenders for his perplexed patriarch in Black-ish, while Zach Galifianakis’s clown comedy Baskets has as much chance as the Insane Clown Posse being invited to the ceremony. Likewise, William H Macy is always there to make up the numbers. This one is a three-way race, with the Emmys voters likely to stick with what they know but surely tempted to recognise two of the most inventive auteurs making television today. LB

Should win: Donald Glover, Atlanta

Will win: Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Outstanding lead actress in a comedy

In which the unstoppable force of Julia Louis-Dreyfus, victor in this category for the past five years, goes up against the immovable object of Emmy voters’ love for Hollywood royalty in the form of Lily Tomlin and Jane Fonda. Could one of the Grace and Frankie duo halt the Veep VIP’s march towards a record-breaking sixth consecutive win? It seems unlikely, given that the presence of both performers in this category is likely to split the Grace and Frankie vote.

Instead, the most likely person to steal Louis-Dreyfus’s comedy crown is probably Black-ish star Tracee Ellis Ross, who won the corresponding Golden Globe for this category in January – though that perhaps shouldn’t be a harbinger, given that it’s been nearly a decade since anyone took home both awards in the same year. Special mention should go to long-time Louis CK collaborator Pamela Adlon, one of the most underrated comedy performers around, whose work on the smart, ribald and completely heartbreaking Better Things deserves recognition. GM

Should win: Pamela Adlon, Better Things

Will win: Julie Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Frenemies: Susan Sarandon as Bette Davis and Jessica Lange as Joan Crawford in Feud. Photograph: FX

Outstanding lead actress in a limited series or TV movie

There’s a divine irony to Jessica Lange and Susan Sarandon vying for the accolade just as their Feud characters Joan Crawford and Bette Davis were at each other’s throats over the 1963 Oscar for Baby Jane. At least they both got nominated this time. In the Big Little Lies camp, you’ve got Reese Witherspoon’s peppy, bitchy whirlwind of energy Madeline. She’s stunning as a chipper mom desperate for excitement, but as a part it’s a far simpler proposition than Nicole Kidman’s Celeste. Kidman nails the nuances of a woman whose perfect public veneer slips all the while, gradually revealing her private shame. This truly could be anyone’s. But Emmy voters, well everyone, loves a Hollywood story – especially such a juicy one – so our money must be on Lange. KA

Should win: Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies

Will win: Jessica Lange, Feud

Outstanding lead actor in a limited series or TV movie

Emmy voters have a habit of giving this award to veteran actors past their prime: Kevin Costner, Al Pacino and Michael Douglas have all scooped it in the last decade. That could mean a straight runoff between this category’s elder statesmen Robert De Niro for his depiction of disgraced banker Bernie Madoff in The Wizard of Lies and Geoffrey Rush in Genius. Another potential winner based on previous form could be Benedict Cumberbatch, who has won here before for his portrayal of Sherlock Holmes.

Ewan McGregor’s performance in Fargo passed many people by and would be an unlikely winner, which leaves us with The Night Of’s double act. John Turturro’s turn as Manhattan criminal court attorney John Stone smoldered last summer and left audiences on both sides of the Atlantic wondering exactly what was going on until the final episodes. Riz Ahmed played his part perfectly and showed how the criminal justice system can chew someone up and spit them out in an entirely new form. LB

Should win: John Turturro, The Night Of

Will win: Robert De Niro, The Wizard of Lies

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Big Little Lies. Photograph: HBO

Outstanding limited series

Big Little Lies – Should win/will win

Fargo

Feud

Genius

The Night Of

Outstanding variety talk series

Full Frontal With Samantha Bee – Should win

Jimmy Kimmel Live!

Last Week Tonight With John Oliver – Will win

The Late Late Show With James Corden

The Late Show With Stephen Colbert

Real Time With Bill Maher

Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series

Louie Anderson, Baskets

Alec Baldwin, Saturday Night Live – Will win

Ty Burrell, Modern Family

Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Tony Hale, Veep - Should win

Matt Walsh, Veep

Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series

Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul – Should win

Michael Kelly, House of Cards

John Lithgow, The Crown – Will win

David Harbour, Stranger Things

Ron Cephas Jones, This Is Us

Jeffrey Wright, Westworld

Outstanding supporting actor in a limited series or movie

David Thewlis, Fargo

Alexander Skarsgård, Big Little Lies - Will win

Alfred Molina, Feud

Stanley Tucci, Feud – Should win

Bill Camp, The Night Of

Michael Kenneth Williams, The Night Of

Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series

Vanessa Bayer, Saturday Night Live

Leslie Jones, Saturday Night Live

Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live – Should win

Judith Light, Transparent

Kathryn Hahn, Transparent

Anna Chlumsky, Veep – Will win

Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series

Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black

Millie Bobby Brown, Stranger Things

Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale – Should win

Samira Wiley, The Handmaid’s Tale

Chrissy Metz, This Is Us

Thandie Newton, Westworld – Will win

Outstanding supporting actress in a limited series or movie

Laura Dern, Big Little Lies – Will win

Regina King, American Crime

Shailene Woodley, Big Little Lies – Should win

Judy Davis, Feud

Jackie Hoffman, Feud

Michelle Pfeiffer, The Wizard of Lies