haryana

Updated: Oct 03, 2019 07:40 IST

A steep climb uphill awaits the Opposition in the plains of Haryana where many observers believe the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could replicate the Aam Aadmi Party’s 2015 near-sweep in Delhi.

The battle lines on the ground were demarcated perhaps in 2016 when a violent stir led by the Jats seeking quotas in government jobs left 20 people killed and nearly 200 injured. Property worth thousands of crore of rupees was destroyed across the state. The agitation’s epicenters were the eastern districts of Jhajjar and Rohtak, the citadel of former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda.

The violence triggered a social consolidation against the pugnacious Jats, who constitute only 29% of the state’s population but have dominated its politics through such influential leaders as Bansi Lal, Devi Lal, Hooda and OP Chautala. Of the three non-Jat CMs since Haryana was carved out of Punjab in 1966, none, except Bhajan Lal, completed a five-year term.

In that limited sense, the incumbent, ML Khattar, has equalled Bhajan Lal’s record of ruling at a stretch for five years. It is another matter that the Congress leader who crossed over lock-stock-and-barrel from the Janata Party in the 1980s, was CM for 11 years over three stints.

The Jats versus the rest scenario eminently suits Khattar, a non-Jat Punjabi with roots in Pakistan’s Jhang. In the altered social dynamic, his wild card 2014 arrival at the helm is now the BJP’s trump card. Rated high on probity, if not charisma, he shines in comparison with his predecessors from the Congress, the Haryana Vikas Party, the Lok Dal and the erstwhile Janata Party.

The Opposition’s challenge is dampened further by its enfeebled organisational state. Once a force to reckon with, the Lok Dal is torn between claimants to Devi Lal’s legacy and that of OP Chautala, his elder son. The Congress is no better off with a tenuous truce between five feuding factions brought together by Sonia Gandhi.

The BJP’s choice of Khattar was driven by his Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) background and old association with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His administration was a slow starter that initially aroused scepticism but incrementally gathered pace. His rule by the book was what independent analysts considered a happy break from Haryana’s politics of pelf and patronage. As Pramod Kumar of the Chandigarh-based Institute for Development and Communication explained, “He betrayed no bias for any region or caste. He went by merit to distribute opportunities.”

Khattar’s simplicity that invited sneers when he became CM eventually earned him positive comparisons with earlier chief ministers. His scheme for skill development among unemployed, educated youth entails (with the promise of 100 days of work a year after they pick up skills) a substantial monthly stipend. It cuts across caste barriers, reaching out to the non-Jats as also the Jats.

The Opposition, stewarded by weighty Jat faces, could have problems also because of the community’s association with the Arya Samaj’s conservative stream and its distrust of Islam and Christianity, which makes the adherents susceptible to the BJP’s brand of religious/military nationalism. The key to that swing could be the Indian Air Force’s Balakot strikes and the nullification of Kashmir’s special status under Article 370.

That effectively means the saffron party, banking on the non-Jat consolidation (on account of the 2016 violence blamed on the Jats), could also expect substantial votes from Jat families that contribute to the military and other uniformed forces. A Congress insider with whom this writer spoke did not discount the unpropitious poll projections for his party. He blamed it all on the central leadership’s “flawed” Balakot and Kashmir narratives, together with the delay in sorting out the organisational mess in Haryana: “While we squabbled or slept, Khattar built a reputation despite his sluggish ways.”

So, subject to force majeure, the upcoming polls could be a one-way street. The Opposition may hope for a miracle, but may likely face a debacle. That’s why the comparison with Delhi, 2015.

vinodsharma@hindustantimes.com