Three million stuck at Turkish border in one of the worst humanitarian crises since start of war

Time is running out for three million civilians on Syria’s border with Turkey, caught in the crosshairs of a brutal regime offensive that has led Ankara to threaten military action against Bashar al-Assad if his forces do not pull back.

Yesterday Turkey’s defence ministry said it would strike back at regime troops and allied militias if its military posts in Syria’s northwest Idlib province were threatened, echoing President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ultimatum last week that Assad must withdraw to a previously agreed ceasefire line before the end of February.

Erdoğan’s communications director, Fahrettin Altun, said the escalation in Idlib – which led to the deaths of eight Turkish military personnel on Monday – was unacceptable. “We cannot tolerate what has been unfolding in Idlib. We will seek accountability for our martyrs,” he told a Turkey-Syria media forum in Istanbul yesterday. “Bashar al-Assad’s place in the future ... is not the presidential palace but the international court of justice at The Hague.”

Turkey is seeking to shore up a de-escalation agreement for Idlib brokered in 2018 by Moscow – which backs Assad – and Ankara, which supports some rebel groups in the area. The ceasefire has been routinely broken by both sides, but an attritional campaign by Syria has escalated since Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly al-Qaida’s Syrian affiliate, seized control of most of the area last year.

A full-scale regime air and ground offensive, which began in December, has sparked one of the worst humanitarian crises in Syria’s nine-year-old war to date, killing more than 300 civilians in airstrikes that hit hospitals, markets and bakeries, and driving 580,000 people fleeing the violence towards the Turkish border. Turkey, already home to about four million Syrian refugees, is unwilling to open its border to more.

Fifty-year-old Abu Omar, from the village of Hass in southern Idlib, left home with his family for another village as the fighting drew close at the end of last year. After shelling reached their temporary home two weeks ago, they fled to Deir Hassan on the Turkish border. All 11 family members have been living in a tent in freezing winter conditions, camped out with thousands of other families.

“We have lost all hope at this point,” he said. “I think wWe are going to have to stay here a long time, but if the regime keeps advancing there is no other place left to go.”

“Turkey has let us down. I am disappointed: when the Turkish observation posts were established [as part of the deescalation deal], I thought, ‘It’s over, the regime can’t advance anymore.’ But the opposite has happened.”

Turkey has intervened militarily in Syria three times in operations against Islamic State and US-backed Kurdish-led forces it regards as a terrorist threat, but has never attacked Assad’s troops and allied militias.

Since Monday’s rare clash between Turkish and Syrian government forces, Ankara has urged Moscow to convince its Syrian allies to end the Idlib offensive. A Russian delegation was set to meet yesterday [Saturday] with Turkish officials to discuss the situation.

Ankara has sent in 350 vehicles with commandos backed by armoured vehicles to beef up its 12 observation positions since Friday, state-run Anadolu news agency said, after officials reported that three had been surrounded by regime troops.

“Despite their cooperation in several areas in Syria there are unfortunately many glaring communication issues between Ankara and Moscow,” said Dareen Khalifa, a senior Syria analyst at the International Crisis Group.

“Russia and Assad are still pushing ahead with this offensive despite the fact Ankara has reiterated its red lines because they underestimate how vital stability in Idlib is for Turkey. Keeping the border shut is a huge national security concern.” Assad’s forces have swept through dozens of towns and villages in southern Idlib over the last two weeks. Yesterday the regime it said the key town of Saraqib was back under its control.

When airstrikes on the city escalated and she realised Saraqib was about to fall, making her town, Ariha, the next target, Huda Omar, 43, left for Turkish-controlled Afrin.

She still fears her family will not be safe in the volatile area. “The future is unknown. I can’t predict anything,” she said. “It’s all in the hands of Russia and Turkey right now and completely out of the control of Syrians.”

Additional reporting by Hussein Akoush in Gaziantep, Turkey