2040-2045

China's space program is rivalling NASA

During the late 2010s, China revealed a number of long-term plans to significantly expand its national space program. The country was already making progress towards a new space station, but had even greater ambitions for the decades ahead. This roadmap included two new generations of rockets to be introduced in the 2020s and 2030s, followed by a fleet of crewed spacecraft in the 2040s.

The Long March family of rockets had been used since 1970 and made China the fifth nation to achieve independent launch capability. Over the decades, subsequent versions offered more versatility and greater payloads. A new series, the Long March 8, was planned for the early 2020s. It would become the most advanced version yet – allowing China to catch up with NASA in terms of conventional rocket technology and to provide commercial launch services for a number of other countries. In addition, a reusable suborbital carrier was being developed. This space plane, with a scheduled first launch date of 2025, would allow China to begin offering space tourism and a rival to the likes of Virgin Galactic.

During the 2030s, a much more advanced and powerful rocket – Long March 9 (CZ-9) – would be introduced. With a payload of 140 tons to low-Earth orbit (LEO) and more than 50 tons for trans-lunar injection (TLI), this could provide support to crewed lunar landing missions. Its cargo capacity, 18 times more than the earlier Long March 8, would place it within the "super heavy-lift launch vehicle" category along with the Falcon Heavy, the retired Saturn V and Soviet Energia, the Space Launch System and other large rockets under development in the United States. A fully reusable version was planned for 2035. The Long March 9 was to be instrumental in establishing a Chinese presence on the Moon.



Long March 9 (CZ-9). By Thorenn [CC BY-SA 4.0], from Wikimedia Commons

By 2040-2045, China has further expanded its space program, to such an extent that it now rivals NASA.* The latter had seen its budget decline as a percentage of GDP for several decades. Launch vehicles for multiple, interplanetary round-trips are being introduced with even lower costs. In addition to these large and reusable rockets, a fleet of nuclear-powered space shuttles is becoming operational. These provide crewed, deep space capability for Moon and Mars missions, without the need for solar or chemical propulsion.*

With an expanded budget and improved technology, China has taken the lead in many areas of space. Probes are being launched on a regular basis to explore the Solar System and return samples, while various new telescopes have been deployed. However, entirely new capabilities have also emerged – space resource utilisation through asteroid mining, for example, and the construction of space-based megaprojects, such as orbital solar power stations.

China is also among a group of countries now making the first serious attempts to develop a space elevator, though it will be some time before this is fully built and operational; not just because of technical challenges, but in part due to safety and insurance considerations and the international laws required. Additionally, China's growth rate has begun to cool off, allowing nations like India to gain an increasing share of the space sector. Alongside an explosion of privately-owned and crowd-funded ventures, this is creating a more evenly distributed and multipolar space industry, now worth over a trillion dollars.

2040

India's economy is rivalling that of China and the U.S.

By 2040, rapid economic growth has enabled India to catch up with China and the U.S. These three countries – the G3 – now have by far the largest share of world GDP.** India has benefitted from a number of cultural, economic and demographic trends in recent decades.* This includes a youthful, growing and economically productive population,* now the world's largest at 1.6 billion,* with an average age of just 34. By comparison, China's average age is 46 and its working population has been declining.*

Expansion and development of India's service sector – adding greatly to the global knowledge-based economy – has occurred in parallel with a slowdown in China's growth rate as its economy matures. India has also managed to avoid many of the disruptive challenges experienced by China, since its market-based economy is already part of a liberal democracy, unlike the planned economy of its rival.

India's currency, the rupee, is now challenging the renminbi as the world's strongest. Due to its global influence and military capabilities, India has also gained a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Later this decade, on 15th August 2047, the nation will celebrate its 100th anniversary as an independent state.*

However, climate change and other ecological impacts are converging with increasing speed. In particular, neighbouring Bangladesh requires ever more financial support and humanitarian aid, as flooding worsens.* Widespread automation and technological unemployment are also emerging. By the 2050s, India's growth has begun to stagnate, as the world faces a crisis unparalleled in history.**

Fusion power is nearing commercial availability

A prototype commercial fusion reactor is nearing operation.* DEMO (DEMOnstration Power Plant) is the successor to ITER and is designed to build on the success of that project, achieving a number of new breakthroughs. Among the earlier problems being tackled are: containing the plasma at high enough temperatures, maintaining a great enough density of reacting ions, and capturing high-energy neutrons without melting the walls of the interior. Constructed in the 2030s and early 2040s, DEMO is now close to being perfected. Later this decade, it will produce a sustained output of 2 gigawatts (GW), making fusion commercially available for the first time.*

Deep ocean mining operations are widespread

Exploitation of the ocean for its resources had for centuries been confined to fishing and coastal developments. Limits in technology made ventures into deeper waters both impractical and economically unviable. Interest in deep sea mining first appeared in the 1960s, but consistently low prices of mineral resources at the time halted any serious implementation. By the 2000s, the only resource being mined in bulk from the ocean was diamonds, and even then, just a few hundred metres below the surface. Large-scale efforts continued to be hindered in the first decades of the 21st century. By 2040, however, advances in robotics and telepresence have led to a fully mature industry – opening up the vast and previously unobtainable wealth of fuel and mineral reserves along the ocean floor.***



Credit: Nautilus Minerals Inc.

In the past, retrieval operations were limited to manganese nodules (resource-rich rock concretions found on the ocean floor) and metal-rich sediments around hydrothermal vents. Now, thanks to new extraction methods and processing techniques, even the low concentrations of elements found in mud layers are economically viable. Today, prospecting and undersea construction is done using fleets of automated and remote-controlled robots. Once ships or mining platforms are in place, resources are brought to the surface through hydraulic suction or continuous bucket line systems.

The primary focus of these current efforts is rare-earth metals. The rapid growth in demand for these elements, used in a wide range of electronics and other hi-tech applications, has been stymied in recent years by increasingly dire shortages.* This has turned them into resources of strategic importance on the level of oil and natural gas in earlier decades. It has become particularly apparent in Asia, with nations such as India, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia ramping up efforts to free themselves from the near-monopoly that China holds.

Another valuable, though hazardous, target of deep ocean mining is methane hydrate deposits.* This so-called "fire ice" consists of concentrated methane trapped within a crystal of frozen water. It is found throughout the deep ocean in sedimentary structures and outcroppings, with some of the largest known deposits found in the seas of the West Pacific and along the coasts of North America. By itself, methane hydrate far outweighs the total amount of recoverable natural gas. Several nations have established mining operations, with Japan, China, and the United States among the largest producers.*

Traditional forms of ocean exploitation still exist. While the number of oil drilling platforms has declined overall, deepwater (500-1500 metres) and ultra-deepwater operations (1500 metres or further) continue to expand as easily-recoverable reserves become scarce.* Following recent spills and ecological disasters, some on the scale of the Deepwater Horizon spill of 2010, such operations remain highly controversial.

In general, most ocean mining and drilling operations are targets of criticism. Concerns over the environmental impact of ocean floor dredging and prospecting have led to stricter regulations in many countries, as well as the development of protected ocean zones. Nevertheless, the impact of deep ocean mining is still considerable in many regions. Even more polarising is methane hydrate drilling, which threatens to further accelerate the pace of global warming.* Despite efforts to eliminate leakage and minimise its impact, methane hydrate mining is still a risky business, with a number of countries flat-out banning it.



Credit: Nautilus Minerals Inc.

Less than two-thirds of the original Congo jungle remains standing

The Congo region is a sedimentary basin for the drainage of the Congo River in west equatorial Africa. At the turn of the 21st century it contained a quarter of the world's tropical forests, with a total area of 2.5 million sq km.* It held some of the largest undisturbed portions of tropical rainforest on the planet, second only to the Amazon in Brazil. Spanning across six countries, it was home to over 10,000 unique species of tropical plants, 30% of which could not be found anywhere else on Earth. There were over 1,000 bird species, 700 fish species and 400 mammal species. Some noted examples included the Bonobo (humanity's closest living relatives), the Forest Elephant, the okapi, Congo Peafowl, and various species of gorilla. Rare and unique frogs, bats, rodents and birds, together with plants such as orchids, could also be found.

Despite efforts to slow deforestation in the developing countries of Africa, the rainforests of the Congo Basin and elsewhere continued to recede over the decades. As early as the late 2010s, Nigeria's forests had shrunk down to essentially nothing,* while the situation in Central Africa had worsened too. Alongside the bush meat trade impacting fauna, the largely unregulated logging industry continued to chip away at the flora.

Interest in foreign markets led to massive mining operations being conducted in the region, dealing severe damage to its ecosystem. Untapped deposits of raw minerals and metals – estimated to be worth in excess of US$24 trillion* – attracted companies in droves. The expansion of cities and construction of new dams also played a role in harming the fragile environment, while slash-and-burn farming practices began to run rampant as the population soared. Ever-increasing resource demands and the need for economic growth led governments to look the other way during much of this exploitation. This was despite an outcry from the international community and environmentalists.

By 2040, climate change is having an impact too. Since the vast majority of rainfall is generated in the region itself, the resulting isolation makes it more vulnerable to global warming. A large proportion of moisture in Central Africa is produced by evapo-transpiration of trees in the Congo Basin. Substantial reductions in rainfall are now occurring. Loss of forests, especially through fires started by farmers, is pumping huge amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. The rainforest is now transitioning from a carbon sink to a carbon source. With 66 gigatonnes of "volatile" carbon – and a further 50 gigatonnes in the rest of tropical Africa – the equivalent of five years' worth of global emissions will eventually be released.*

These factors have converged so that, by 2040, less than two-thirds of the original Congo remains. Prior to the arrival of human civilisation, rainforests covered somewhere between 80-85% of the total land area in the region – around 3.29 million square km (1.27 million square miles).** By the mid-20th century, one-fifth had disappeared. Deforestation began to accelerate in the 21st century, due to rapid population growth and economic development. By 2020, the rainforests were declining by 0.3% each year; by 2030 this had risen to 0.5% per year* and by 2040 the rate is 0.7%.

In addition to extinctions of animals and plants, numerous indigenous tribes are being uprooted, their cultures disrupted and in some cases lost forever. There is much social and political upheaval in the region. On top of this, local resource conflicts are beginning to break out, primarily over food. This is only serving to exacerbate the environmental damage. Many areas of forest have become battle grounds, while civilian populations are forced to become more self-sufficient, turning to their surrounding local environment for resources.

Virtual telepathy is dominating personal communications

First generation brain-computer interfaces reached the consumer market in around 2010. This technology was crude and limited to begin with: more of a novelty than a serious application. Devices could perform only the simplest of operations, such as directional commands.** Some university experiments successfully created text messages using thought power alone,* but were slow and required bulky equipment to do so.

Advances by 2020 enabled the translation of thoughts into intelligible, recognisable speech by combining speech synthesisers and artificial intelligence* – but the process remained slow and inefficient.*

By 2030, however, exponential progress had been made in mapping and understanding the brain and its neuroelectrical signals.* This was filtering down rapidly to the consumer market. Detailed, real-time messages were becoming possible, using non-invasive methods. The graphical interfaces used in composing messages had also been much improved, with more intuitive navigation and features.

By 2040, the technology is largely perfected for everyday use. It works well and is cheap enough to have spread to even developing countries. Privacy and security issues have been resolved, with personal firewalls able to restrict any unwanted intrusion or hacking attempts. The headsets, visors and earphones necessary for users have been miniaturised and made more comfortable. Some are even fully implantable. Whether for business or personal use, people everywhere are now enjoying a faster, more sophisticated, more private way of communicating.

This form of "virtual telepathy" – and the convergence of other network-based technologies – is radically reshaping society and culture during this time. A speculative bubble is formed on the stock markets, with investors everywhere forecasting a revolution in telecoms. This temporarily overheats the economy, resulting in a crash similar to that of the dotcom collapse of early 2000.

Biorepository and genomic information systems are transforming healthcare

By now, most countries have established a national biorepository and genomic information system, with mandatory entry for all citizens. In other words, governments have a genetic sample of every person. This is needed for a variety of reasons – from national security, to public health, citizen ID, immigration control, resolution of crimes and more – but the most common use is in healthcare.

These genomic information systems are integrated with electronic health records and personal health records, allowing identification and treatment of disease and healthcare issues at the earliest opportunity. Hard data from these systems allow doctors and surgeons to better treat their patients, while government and researchers can target time and resources more efficiently. By utilising such a broad spectrum of information, medical schools and healthcare providers can train and employ the best possible mix of specialists for their patient population.

The focus of healthcare has shifted in recent years – to preventative methods, as opposed to reactionary methods after a disease state has occurred. As well as saving more lives, this has major economic benefits too.

By now, the average person is using at least one biotechnological implant.* Once again, these devices are tailored to their exact personal health requirements. For example, they can be programmed to monitor specific conditions and to dispense medication when needed while simultaneously notifying a doctor. They can identify a patient who is unconscious or unable to communicate for whatever reason, providing vital clinical information during an emergency. They can also be used as tracking devices for mental patients or those suffering from neurological conditions.

Pollen counts have more than doubled

In 2000, pollen counts for the US averaged 8,455 per cubic metre of air. By 2040, this figure has risen to 21,735 – largely due to climate change which has caused major alterations in weather, precipitation and temperature.* Alongside this, the hay fever season has shifted to earlier in the year, with pollen counts now peaking on 8th April, compared to 1st May at the start of the century. Similar changes have taken place in countries around the world. Thankfully, new treatments are now available to prevent allergic reactions. Recent years have seen major advances in gene therapy, for instance. These drugs can "repair" the DNA of hay fever sufferers.

Tobacco has been largely eradicated

In the USA, tobacco use peaked in the early 1960s with nearly 45% of adults smoking regularly. As the health risks became more apparent, efforts were made by government, public health advocates, grassroots organisations and others to raise awareness. These campaigns were remarkably successful in stemming the rates of smoking and tobacco-related disease and death. Smoking was banned in aeroplanes, office buildings and later in public locations such as bars and restaurants. Strict laws on the advertising of tobacco products and their use in movies and television were also introduced. In addition, improvements were made in the availability and efficacy of smoking cessation aids and pharmaceuticals.

By the early 90s, the number of US adult smokers had plunged to 25% and by 2010 the figure was down to 20%. By 2020, smoking in public was banned across every US state and in many other countries around the world, with smoking rates continuing to decline.

Efforts continued over the following two decades and once again proved to be highly successful. The costs of government interventions were surprisingly small, less than 50 US cents per person per year in countries such as India and China. By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.*

Life expectancy for cystic fibrosis reaches 70

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a genetic disorder that affects most critically the lungs, and also the pancreas, liver, and intestine. It is characterised by abnormal transport of chloride and sodium across an epithelium, leading to thick, viscous secretions.

The name cystic fibrosis refers to the characteristic scarring (fibrosis) and cyst formation within the pancreas. Difficulty breathing is the most serious symptom and results from frequent lung infections that are treated with antibiotics and other medications. Other symptoms, including sinus infections, poor growth, and infertility affect other parts of the body.

When the disease was first described in 1938, survival beyond infancy was rare. In 1952, Paul di Sant' Agnese found abnormalities in sweat electrolytes; a sweat test was developed and improved over the next decade. Despite new treatments – including lung transplants – life expectancy for those affected by the condition remained low throughout the 20th century. By the 1980s, it was still in the twenties.

A major breakthrough was achieved in 1989, however, when the trans-membrane conductance regulator gene was discovered. Subsequent research uncovered thousands of different mutations affecting the gene. As our knowledge of the underlying molecular causes and ways of treating the illness continued to improve, so too did life expectancy. Following several milestones in research, it has reached 70 by 2040.*

Breakthroughs in carbon nanotube production

After decades of research, new processes have been developed for synthesising carbon nanotubes, promising to revolutionise the fields of engineering, architecture and materials science. Having been limited to a few centimetres, these structures can now reach potentially thousands of miles in length.* Purification techniques ensure maximum tensile strength, making them hundreds of times stronger than steel. Among the many applications, the technology for a space elevator is now available. Political and financial will are the only remaining obstacles for such a project.*

Submarine exploration of Titan

The first probe to Saturn was Pioneer 11 in 1979, which confirmed that its largest moon Titan was probably too cold to support life. This was followed by Voyager 1 and 2, in 1980 and 1981, respectively. Cassini–Huygens was launched in 1997, arriving in 2004, with a lander that returned the first pictures of Titan's surface in 2005.

In subsequent years, a number of conceptual missions were proposed for returning probes to Titan. Of particular interest were the moon's hydrocarbon lakes and oceans, thought to have conditions similar to those on Earth during its early history. Most of NASA's budget and objectives had already been assigned for the next two decades. However, the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts was established for longer term, visionary goals. Among the projects to emerge from this program was an unmanned submarine intended to explore the subsurface environment of Titan. This began to progress from initial feasibility studies to more detailed and practical designs.

As the years went by, mission capabilities were being enhanced by a new generation of robotics – some aspects of which could be seen in the deep ocean mining operations now appearing on Earth* – while access to space was now a fraction of the cost it had once been. A launch was timed to coincide with Titan's summer during the early 2040s, maximising the period of ice melt and ease of manoeuvrability. The vessel would be delivered to Kraken Mare, a huge lake of methane and ethane approximately 1,000 ft (300 m) deep. This unpiloted submarine features onboard realtime navigation, hazard avoidance systems, an exploration sensor suite, and autonomous science investigation software system. Stunning high quality videos and a plethora of data are returned from this strange alien environment, where temperatures reach below -179°C (-290°F).*



Future Titan mission of the 2040s. Credit: NASA

China's HSR network has been greatly expanded

China's rapid economic growth in the early 21st century was aided by its massive investments in infrastructure. Highways, bridges, tunnels and airports quickly spread throughout the country, linking nearly every major city and regional province, while 15,000 new cars were added to the nation's roads each day. Above all, however, it was high-speed rail that proved to be the driving factor in much of China's rise.**

Similar to the industrial revolution of 200 years previously, rail provided growth and increased prosperity to every area it connected to. Between 2010 and 2020, China invested $300 billion* in constructing over 17,600 km (11,000 mi) of additional rail lines, giving 90% of the population access to the network.* From the 2020s onwards, there was further expansion of high-speed rail, the surge in passenger numbers making HSR a lucrative industry.*

Along with being more energy efficient and cheaper, advances in design and technology boosted train speeds by hundreds of miles per hour, making them competitive with flight schedules in many cases. The very fastest routes now included trains travelling at over 1,000 km/h (625 mph).* Maglev routes were expanded significantly, especially along the coast. Along with internal connections, plans were formulated to link the Chinese rail system with those of Europe, India, Russia and Japan. With such a huge rail network, the cities of China were more closely connected than ever before. In a sense, high-speed rail created a 1.2 billion person "single city" effect, with much of the population only a few hours away from each other.*

Along with growth in commerce, rail has driven – and in turn been driven by – China's unprecedented urbanisation. By 2040, over 70% of the population lives in urban areas.* Vast megacities, each with more than 100 million people, have formed out of the gradual merging of smaller metropolises.* The largest examples today are the three main economic zones: the Yangtze River Delta (Shanghai, Nanjing, and Hangzhou), the Pearl River Delta (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong) and the Bohai Economic Rim (Beijing, Tianjin, and Tangshan).

Despite all this, China's economy has begun to weaken significantly in recent years.** With a declining workforce and with most of its growth fueled by debt, the country is now embroiled in political, economic and social strife. Restructuring and artificial inflation had managed to sustain the situation temporarily, but could only do so much. Worsening climate change is now an additional factor. This is a particular problem in Shanghai, which has been woefully unprepared for sea level rises.* Though still experiencing moderate local growth, the country as a whole is now approaching crisis point. By the end of this decade, it will have largely stagnated, becoming one of the last major powers to do so.*

Completion of the Northeast Corridor high-speed rail route

By 2040, work is nearing completion on a major upgrade of the Northeast Corridor (NEC). America's busiest rail line, the NEC runs from Boston in the north to Washington in the south, via New York. Like many rail services in the US, it had seen decades of underinvestment. Much of the infrastructure was poorly managed and in need of renovation. Tunnels, for example, had speed restrictions due to their obsolete designs, while electrical components dating from the 1930s would routinely fail. There were engine breakdowns, conflicts among trains and frequent delays costing tens of millions of dollars in lost productivity.

Between 2000 and 2010, intercity ridership on the NEC jumped from 8.2 to 13 million passengers a year. In an effort to address future capacity needs, improve service reliability and reduce travel times, Amtrak formulated plans for a $150 billion, 30-year investment program. This would see construction of a dedicated high-speed route, with trains running up to 220 mph (354 kph).



Credit: Amtrak

The plans include fully upgraded tracks and signals, new tunnels, new bridges and expanded stations. Tracks follow the existing NEC and transport networks whenever possible to minimise impacts. Implemented in three main phases, the Newark to New York section is completed by 2025; the Washington to Newark section is completed by 2030 and the final section between New York and Boston is completed by 2040.

Journey times are dramatically reduced. A trip from Boston to New York that previously took 3 hours and 34 minutes can now be completed in just 1 hour and 34 minutes. A trip from New York to Philadelphia is reduced from 1 hour and 10 minutes to just 37 minutes, while a trip from Philadelphia to Washington is cut from 1 hour and 33 minutes to just 54 minutes. For passengers travelling the entire 438 miles (705 km) from Boston to Washington, this means a total reduction in journey time of more than 50% – from 6 hours and 17 minutes, to 3 hours and 5 minutes. Following many years of neglect, this region of the United States finally has a world class rail system.*



Credit: Amtrak

All civil domestic aviation in Norway is electric

In the late 2010s, Norway's state-owned airport operator Avinor proposed an upgrade of the country's short-haul airline fleet – intended to transition it from traditional jet fuel to electric planes. This idea received further attention in 2020, when Avinor and the Civil Aviation Authority released a report exploring these long-term plans in more detail.

Norway already had more than 200 research and development projects underway for electric or hybrid-electric passenger aircraft, with a particular focus on smaller planes of less than 20 seat capacity. The aviation authorities, collaborating alongside domestic airlines, used their knowledge and experience of the region to develop zero-emission aircraft suited to Norwegian winter conditions and runway lengths on the short-haul network.

Advances in battery technology offered the potential to fly aircraft longer distances on a single charge. This included a new generation of solid-state batteries with 650Wh/kg of energy density, compared to 250Wh/kg for conventional lithium-ion cells.* These devices, embedded in the fuselage and wings, led to a first fully electric domestic flight by 2030.



Credit: Eviation

Further progress in the 2030s resulted in additional range extensions, opening up new routes. By 2040, these are sufficient to cover Norway's entire short-haul domestic network and form connections to neighbouring Scandinavian cities.*

Prior to this transition, air travel on domestic routes accounted for 2.4% of Norwegian greenhouse gas emissions. Other benefits of these new planes include a halving in the level of noise pollution, along with lower operational and maintenance costs.

Norway serves as a model for other countries and airlines. In subsequent decades, even greater energy densities become possible, enabling larger aircraft with higher seating capacities and longer routes to incorporate purely electric systems.