NDP MAJORITY

Liberal support collapsing

Toronto, May 24th - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 906 Ontario voters, amongst those decided and leaning almost half of Ontarians (47%) say that they would support the NDP.

A third (33%) say they would support the PCs, and one-sixth (14%) say they would support the Liberals.

Few (4%) say they would support either the Green Party, or another party (2%).

NDP majority

If the election were held today, we project these results would see an NDP Majority Government with 79 seats. The PCs would serve as opposition with 40 seats, and the Liberals would be left without enough seats to form an official party in the legislature, 5.

Three quarters say they are unlikely to change their voting intention

Three quarters (TOP2: 77%) say they are unlikely to change their voting intention, with almost two thirds (59%) saying they are very unlikely to do so.

PC supporters say they are the least likely to change, with 9 in 10 (BTM2: 90%) saying they are unlikely to do so.

More than three-quarters (BTM2: 79%) of NDP supporters say they are unlikely to change their support, and just under three-quarters (70%) of Liberals saying they are unlikely to shift their vote elsewhere.

Just over half (58%) of Green voters say they are unlikely to change their vote.

About one-sixth (TOP2: 15%) say they are likely to change their voting intention, but few (3%) say they are very likely to do so.

One-third of Green party supporters (34%) say they are likely to change their vote, with about one quarter (22%) of Liberal voters saying so.

One-sixth (15%) of NDP supporters say they are likely to change their vote, and few (6%) Conservative voters say they are likely to change.

Horwath Approval Steady

Kathleen Wynne’s approval sits at one-fifth (19%), while her disapproval sits at two-thirds (69%). 1 in 10 say they do not know (11%). Her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -50

Doug Ford’s approval sits at a third (32%), with half (51%) saying they disapprove. About one-fifth (17%) say they do not know. His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -19.

Andrea Horwath’s approval sits at 4 in 10 (43%), with a quarter (26%). About one-third (31%) say they do not know. Her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is +17.

Horwath and Ford tied for best Premier

A third (33%) say Andrea Horwath would make the best Premier, while a similar proportion (30%) say this of Doug Ford.

Kathleen Wynne is seen as best premier by one-sixth (15%), a similar proportion to those who say none (13%). 1 in 10 (9%) say they do not know.

Half oppose the closure of the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station

Half (BTM2: 47%) say they oppose the closure of the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station, with a quarter (26%) saying they oppose its closure strongly.

One-fifth (TOP2: 21%) say they support the closure of the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station, with 1 in 10 (8%) saying say support its closure strongly.

A third (31%) say they do not know.

More than half approve of convenience stores selling beer and wine

M ore than half (TOP2: 54%) say they approve of convenience stores selling beer and wine, with a third (31%) saying they approve strongly.

4 in 10 (40%) say they disapprove of convenience stores selling beer and wine, with a quarter (27%) saying they disapprove strongly. Few (6%) say they do not know.

Half disapprove of the NDP government not using back to work legislation

Half (BTM2: 50%) say that disapprove of the announcement an NDP government won’t use back to work legislation, with a third (30%) saying they disapprove strongly.

One-quarter (TOP2: 24%) say they approve, with 1 in 10 (11%) saying they do so strongly. A quarter (26%) say they do not know.





"We’ve seen the NDP gaining momentum since our poll on the first day of the campaign,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. "But their momentum has now propelled them into a position to secure a majority government, sapping support from both the Liberals and the Conservatives.”

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.