Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz are poised to win the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses — but haven’t yet locked the state down. And Donald Trump has the edge among Republicans in the three other states that will vote next month, including a commanding advantage in New Hampshire.

That’s according to the first survey of 2016 of members of the POLITICO Caucus — our panel of top activists, strategists and operatives in the four early-voting states: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.


With only 24 days of campaigning before Iowans gather to cast the first ballots in the presidential nominating process, wide majorities of insiders in the state said Clinton and Cruz would win if the caucuses were held today. But when asked whether both candidates have the win in the bank, many cautioned that things still could change.

“Iowans are just starting to pay attention,” said one Iowa Republican, who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously. “There are negative ads and mail pieces that are going after [Cruz]. The issues of immigration and ethanol have him on the [defensive] trying to prove that he had been consistent in his stances on both of these issues.”

Still, insiders in Iowa are nearly unanimous about who would win the two contests if the caucuses were held today. On the Democratic side, about 90 percent said Clinton would win, compared with just about 10 percent who said Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders would prevail.

Among Iowa Republicans, almost 85 percent picked Cruz as the leader there, with just 10 percent choosing Trump, the national poll leader.

In the three other early states, however, the results were quite different for Republicans. In both New Hampshire and South Carolina, more than 7-in-10 GOP insiders said Trump would win if the vote were held today.

The surprise second-place finisher in New Hampshire? Chris Christie. Seventeen percent of insiders there said the New Jersey governor would win the first-in-the-nation primary if it were held today.

Trump would win Nevada — which, like Iowa, is a caucus state — if the vote were held today. But he is followed closely there by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who has dedicated significant resources to courting voters and organizing in the state.

On the Democratic side, insiders in all four states picked Clinton as the winner if votes were cast today. The closest contest would be in New Hampshire, where more than a third of Democrats say Sanders would prevail if the primary were today.

But this week’s survey focused mostly on Iowa, which will kick off the voting next month. POLITICO asked insiders from both parties in all four states to rank the GOP field in Iowa by projected order of finish.

As with the question of which candidate would win today, nearly 85 percent picked Cruz, the Texas senator, in the top slot in Iowa. Trump was the overwhelming second-place choice, with almost 70 percent saying he would be runner-up.

Pluralities picked Rubio for third place, and retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson was the most popular choice for fourth place among Republicans. For fifth place, GOP insiders were divided, with Christie — who appears to be riding a modest wave of momentum and is preparing to launch his first TV ads in Iowa next week — and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush the two most popular options.

Among early-state Democrats, a majority still chose Cruz as the most likely first-place finisher in Iowa, though his margin over Trump was smaller: 68 percent picked Cruz, while 28 percent chose Trump for the top slot.

“Ted Cruz will learn a cruel lesson in Iowa,” a Democrat there predicted. “That which goes up quickly falls just as fast. Trump will win.”

Democrats mostly agreed with Republicans on the rest of the top-tier candidates: Rubio finishing third, Carson fourth — despite Carson's slide from the top of the national polls.

“Carson’s supporters across the country are those true believers who will still show up,” said a South Carolina Democrat. “He won’t finish first, or even second, but will finish well enough to warrant his staying in for a few more weeks.”

Democrats were split on their own race, and not entirely confident of Clinton's prospects: 56 percent of all early-state Democrats said Clinton doesn't have Iowa locked up, compared with 44 percent who said she does.

“I hate to say it, but Hillary Clinton has locked up the Democratic race. Period,” said a South Carolina Democrat, who was more convinced of her chances. “If accomplishments, bold ideas, executive experience and basic character were still a thing, this would be the year of [Martin] O’Malley, but unfortunately, it’s not 1988.”

Republicans also were divided on the race across the aisle, with 55 percent saying Clinton has Iowa locked up, and 45 percent saying she doesn’t.

One Iowa Republican said the Sanders campaign’s organization and appeal among younger voters make the Vermonter a threat to Clinton there. “His staff is active and visible, mail pieces are being dropped” in the state, the Republican said. “College kids are caucusing in Iowa this year. That could be the key for him.”

These are the members of the POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated this week:

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Richard S. Rogers, Nick Ryan, Matt Schultz, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

South Carolina: Andrew Collins, Antjuan Seawright, Barry Wynn, Bob McAlister, Boyd Brown, Brady Quirk-Garvan, Bruce Haynes, Catherine Templeton, Chad Connelly, Chip Felkel, Cindy Costa, Clay Middleton, David Wilkins, Dick Harpootlian, Donna Hicks, Drea Byars, Ed McMullen, Elizabeth Colbert-Busch, Ellen Weaver, Erin McKee, Gary R. Smith, Glenn McCall, Inez Tenenbaum, Isaiah Nelson, Jaime R. Harrison, James Smith, Jason Perkey, Jay W. Ragley, Jim Hodges, Jimmy Williams, Joe Erwin, Joel Sawyer, John Brisini, Kevin Bishop, Kim Wellman, Laurin Manning, Le Frye, Luke Byars, Matt Moore, Mikee Johnson, Morgan Allison, Phil Noble, Scott Farmer, Tony Denny, Trey Walker, Tyler Jones, Walter Whetsell, Warren Tompkins, Will Folks

Nevada: Adam Khan, Andres Ramirez, Andrew Diss, Barbara Buckley, Bob Cavazos, Brendan Summers, Chip Evans, Chuck Muth, Dan Hart, Daniel Stewart, Ed Williams, Emmy Ruiz, Erven T. Nelson, Greg Bailor, Heidi Wixom, Jack St. Martin, James Smack, Jay Gertsema, Jeremy Hughes, Jim DeGraffenreid, Jon Ralston, Kristen Orthman, Laura Martin, Linda Cavazos, Lindsey Jydstrup, Mac Abrams, Mari St. Martin, Marla Turner, Megan Jones, Michael McDonald, Michelle White, Mike Slanker, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Oscar Goodman, Pat Hickey, Paul Smith, Pete Ernaut, Peter Koltak, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Roberta Lange, Ryan Erwin, Ryan Hamilton, Sam Lieberman, Scott Scheid, Yvanna Cancela, Zach Hudson

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.