Earlier this year, in a small town in eastern Syria, armed men took to the streets to shout pro-Assad slogans. What made this event unusual was that the town of Abu Kamal has been held by the rebels since November 2012.

As Syrians in regime-held areas cast their votes in the presidential election yesterday, a question should be asked about the reasons behind such shows of support for a president who has knowingly slaughtered thousands of men, women and children.

It is easy for the opposition, as it did, to dismiss such displays as orchestrated or coerced by the regime. But there are lessons to be learnt from these acts.

Syrians, whether on the regime’s side or otherwise, know well what these elections mean. They know that there is no real difference in this contest from the last time around, when they voted in a referendum for their “eternal” president. The only choice they had then was whether they wanted to thumb “Yes” with blood or ink.

Intimidation is still rarely far from the surface. For instance, there were rumours that the regime had put new procedures in place to identify who votes. Although these rumours were denied, many people were not prepared to take the chance, particularly if they intended to return to Syria soon.

This fear is a reflection of the fact that Bashar Al Assad is more politically stable than ever. This fear is also backed up by anecdotal evidence, including the move by many Syrians to renew their passports, effectively legitimising their travel documents, instead of waiting for the regime to fall.

In regime-held areas, the people are still intimidated, tortured and killed for the slightest show of defiance. In liberated areas, people started to consider that they might be held accountable if the regime regains control or if they have to return during the conflict. In other words, fear is everywhere.

But there are deeper reasons the opposition has to recognise. Mr Al Assad’s name is used as shorthand to reject the rebel takeover. This can be discerned in liberated areas, where some people who reject the new forces in their areas would use the name of the president as an act of defiance and frustration.

The demonstration in Abu Kamal, for example, was about an oil well the protesters’ family controlled. The province’s Sharia commission had issued a fatwa to end family control of oilfields and, instead, distribute the resources to fund the fight against the regime. The family had made a fortune from the well and, as a show of defiance to the rebels, they went out to shout pro-Assad slogans.

This trend is increasingly evident, but it does not reflect outright support for the president, rather it shows a clear rejection of his opponents.

The election comes at a time when this sentiment has become widely felt. It probably indicates that many Syrians are willing to support the regime if a credible process towards change was put in place. This political process does not exist, however, and Mr Al Assad has consistently shown he is not ready to initiate it.

Believing that Mr Al Assad would even contemplate starting such a process is delusional.

Politically speaking, holding the election is a chance for the regime to consolidate its gains, reaffirm that it has the upper hand in the conflict and to contrast reality under the regime with that under extremists in rebel-held areas. In that sense, the election will help the regime to solidify its position at least in areas under its control.

Regardless of the merits of the election, the episode has highlighted deep polarisation, with people from the same country looking like they live in parallel universes. The opposition has the right to lament how fellow Syrians forget all the atrocities committed by the president and cheerfully celebrate him.

But a significant part of these celebrations is essentially a defiant response to the opposition’s failure to provide an alternative. Why blame them when the very opposition figures who present themselves as the third way have praised Al Qaeda affiliates as their brothers?

Hassan Hassan is an analyst based in Abu Dhabi who focuses on Islamic groups and regional politics

On Twitter: @hhassan140