The poisoning of ex-spy Sergei Skripal keeps fermenting. The UK-Russia exchanges of provocative rhetoric have escalated into a war of diplomacy and triggered confrontation between Russia and the West. Western countries have shown unprecedented unity since the Cold War in fighting the diplomatic battle against Russia. The war is seeing a spiral of escalation, with Russia announcing Thursday the eviction of 60 American diplomats in retaliation for the Western expulsion of 160 Russia officials. The Russia-West relationship is reaching the lower limit.



The antagonism between Russia and Western countries reminds people of Kremlin foreign policy advisor Sergey Karaganov's assertion that "the world is in a pre-war state." The allegation seems to be gradually proved true following tensions on the Korean Peninsula, the imminent Sino-US trade war and Russia's deteriorating ties with the West. Global tensions have reached a hazardous level in a short span of time, especially when conflicts break out among nuclear powers.



Few would imagine that Skripal's poisoning could have triggered the largest diplomatic war between Russia and the West since the Cold War. The deaths of former spy Alexander Litvinenko in 2006 and financial oligarch Boris Berezovsky in 2013 brought some repercussions, but didn't arouse a Russia-West diplomatic war of such a scale. Why did Skripal's case incur diplomatic turmoil?



By waging a diplomatic battle, Western countries intend to highlight Russia's weakness so as to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin amassed 76 percent of the vote in his fourth bid for president. By contrast, US President Donald Trump only got 47.3 percent in the 2016 election. Despite their prejudices, Western elites have to acknowledge Putin's high popularity in Russia. As elected president, Putin is more legitimate to rule than Trump and most of his Western counterparts.



The West is now seeing fewer levers to retaliate against Russia. Since 2014, Western sanctions on Moscow are having decreasing effects and energy sanctions incur more losses on the West. Putin's high popularity has dashed Western hopes of taking advantage of the election to pressure Putin. The West has more limited tools to coerce Russia.



Western collective diplomatic actions against the Kremlin haven't demonstrated Western solidarity. The US and the UK took the lead in expelling Russian diplomats. Poland, Baltic countries, the Ukraine, known for their hostile attitude toward Russia, followed. Other Western countries reluctantly joined in the diplomatic battle against Moscow in an attempt not to be isolated by the US and the UK.



The diplomatic battle against Russia is in essence an attempt to revive the Western community where Trump's diplomacy and Brexit have crippled unity. Moscow was unfortunately turned into a target. The UK's activity in the battle is because Trump's isolationist tendency offers the country an opportunity to play a larger role in the Western world.



Facing Western diplomatic encirclement, Russia's national characteristics and domestic situation don't allow Putin to perform weakly. Putin's high popularity is due partly to the fact the Russian public needs a strong leader in the face of exterior pressure and among all candidates, only Putin was tough and strong enough.



Russia-West relations are unlikely to improve in the foreseeable future, as both sides tend to interpret their ties with each other from an ideological perspective. Although the "pre-war state" is unlikely at the current stage, such a tense relationship does no good to Russia and Western countries. A diplomatic war will only bring more losses than gains.



The author is a PhD candidate at the Center for Russian Studies, East China Normal University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn