Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Home prices in Sydney and Melbourne are back to 2016 levels. That is a tiny down payment as to what is coming.

News AU reports House Prices Drop in Sydney, as Melbourne Prices Stall.

Tumbling house prices in Sydney and Melbourne are the main drivers behind the first annual drop in national property prices in six years, a new report shows. The national median house price fell 1.0 per cent over the June quarter and year, according to a report by property classifieds group Domain released on Thursday. It is the first time values have fallen on an annual basis since June 2012. The negative national growth rate reflects weakening house prices in Sydney and Melbourne, which together represent about two thirds of Australia’s housing market by value. Sydney house prices fell by 4.5 per cent in the 12 months to the end of June for their largest annual drop since 2008. Sydney units also fell by 3.5 per cent over the same period. The figures chime with those released this week by property data firm CoreLogic, which said overall Sydney prices fell 5.0 per cent in the 12 months to July 22. “House and unit prices in Sydney are now back to values seen at the end of 2016,” Domain property analyst Nicola Powell told AAP. Tighter credit availability and a high number of units being built are key factors behind the dive, Dr Powell said.

Apartment Boom Comes to End

Next up, please consider Construction Set for Biggest Decline Since the Global Financial Crisis

Australia's building commencements, fueled by investor apartment construction, look like heading from boom to bust, according to forecaster BIS Oxford Economics. In a reality check for investors who bought at the top of the apartment boom, BIS is predicting the biggest correction since the global financial crisis hit in 2008, with housing starts set to fall by almost 23 per cent by 2020. Associate director Adrian Hart told the ABC's AM program that the slump would be led by high-density dwelling construction, which is set to halve over the next two years A key factor in the residential slowdown has been tougher regulation by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) to curb investor lending, while the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) and tax office has been clamping down on overseas buyers.

Mortgage Prison

Finally, and most importantly, please consider Aussie Homeowners Trapped in ‘Mortgage Prison’.

Australian homeowners are trapped in “mortgage prison” because of a rule change. And there is no easy way out. Changes in bank rules around living expenses calculations have effectively wiped huge amounts off the maximum a bank will allow you to borrow. Many people are now finding they originally borrowed more than a bank would lend them under current conditions, meaning they haven’t got the option of shopping around to get a better interest rate — no bank will lend them the amount they need. Precise numbers of Australia’s mortgage prisoners are hard to come by, but Mozo investment and lending expert Steve Jovcevski told news.com.au that he expected most of them are those who have borrowed and bought in the last five years.

Oops!

Jovcevski gave an example in which a couple was able to borrow $800,000 a year ago can now only borrow $680,000 under the same rules.

They are now trapped in a mortgage with no way to refinance and no buyers because of declining prices.

Mortgage Slaves for Life

This is precisely what some us foresaw years ago. It's finally come home to roost, and at a time China is highly unlikely to bail out these buyers.

People may be trapped for decades. So expect to see more articles like this as desperation sets in: Australia Housing Insanity: Tent Outside, Full Use of Apartment, Cheap, $90 Per Week.

That was from a year ago. Rates will drop fast. Buyers will need tenants to stay afloat.

Special Mention

Dateline July 23, 2017

13-Year-Old Kid Buys $552,000 Home Meet Akira Ellis a 13-year-old kid. He just bought his first piece of real estate, a $552,000 four-room one bath house in Melbourne’s Frankston. Right at the peak of the market a 13-year-old kid (with obvious help from his parents), bought a house costing over half a million dollars. I noted "Akira is already looking for his next property." I asked "What can possibly go wrong?"

Today, we found out.