From these particular matches it is clear Rafael Nadal needs to take the path of least resistance and win those points. By this I mean, if the farther right paths have thicker line widths, he has won a clean game. It is something I have noticed quite a bit but especially this year. He needs to capitalize quickly if he has four set point opportunities in a tiebreak (I still cannot get over his loss in Rome this year).

First serve frequency (darker regions = more frequent) and percentage of points won.

Serve placement is hardly a mystery when it comes to Rafael Nadal, especially to the best returner in the game but I wanted to look at the evolution of his first serve placement. I illustrated the frequency (color) and the percentage of points he won when he served in the different regions.

Now let’s focus on deuce out wide (it would go to the forehand of right-handed players). Back in 2013 Roland Garros semifinal, he won 44% of those points in less than 3 shots, with 4 aces. He had made the change in 2012, according to Craig O’Shannessy, who noted:

Nadal served much more to Djokovic’s forehand in this match and reaped the rewards of serving not where he prefers to serve but where Djokovic is not as deadly returning.

Of course, Nadal won Roland Garros in 2014 without this serve but the lack of it was apparent in his losses in Monte Carlo and Rome earlier that year as well as this year at Monte Carlo. The two times he did serve there in Monte Carlo, he won the point both times. The one good thing Nadal reintroduced is his serve down the line on the Ad (left) side, which would also hit Djokovic’s forehand, and he won a majority of those points. His frequent service spots may be beneficial against anyone with a less dominant backhand, but certainly not the likes of Djokovic, Murray, or Wawrinka. His service games have become more difficult for him to defend but if he can hit to the forehand, he can win.

When you are inside the baseline, you are more aggressive and attack the slower 2nd serve.

The most striking image, at least for me, was from the 2015 Madrid final. Andy Murray’s win was so convincing and I am pretty certain 2nd serve return court positioning tells a major story.

I do not have information on his court positioning during all these other matches but I can answer a couple of other questions. For instance, where does Nadal return and what percentage of the points does he win when he returns in certain areas?

Return placement frequency (darker region = more frequent) and percentage of points won.

Recall, when Nadal loses, his 1st serve return ~ 33% and 2nd serve return ~ 45%. In his two wins, especially 2014 Roland Garros final, he won a majority of the 2nd serve points. It seems the other key thing is winning ~50% of the points when he returns the shot inside the service box. Typically, a deep return is better but if his return does fall short, especially if he is going to position himself outside the baseline, he must do whatever is possible to win those points and not rely on his opponents to make the mistakes.