EVEN some of Bashar al-Assad’s staunchest opponents cringed at the snub. On December 11th Vladimir Putin made a surprise visit to Khmeimim airbase in Syria, from where the Russian air force launched a bombing campaign against Syrian rebels in 2015. Two years later, most of Mr Putin’s aims have been achieved: Russia’s military bases in the Middle East are secure; Western attempts to isolate Russia have failed; and Mr Assad remains Syria’s president, halting what the Kremlin sees as an American-backed wave of regime change. But when Mr Assad tried to join a photo-op, a Russian officer grabbed him by the arm. The base might be on Syrian soil, but it is Russia’s turf and Mr Putin would lead the victory lap.

From Syria Mr Putin flew to Egypt for talks with its president, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi. They agreed to resume flights between their countries, which were cut off after the bombing of a Russian airliner over Sinai in 2015. They also moved forward on a $21bn deal for Russia to build a nuclear power plant on Egypt’s northern coast. In recent weeks they have discussed letting Russian military jets use Egyptian airstrips. Mr Putin ended the day in Turkey, where Recep Tayyip Erdogan, his Turkish counterpart, announced progress on a deal to purchase a Russian air-defence system.

Much of this would have been unthinkable a few years ago. Turkey is a member of NATO, and Egypt has been a close American ally since the 1970s. But, like many of their neighbours, they are frustrated by the absence of American leadership in the Middle East. Apart from fighting the jihadists of Islamic State, President Donald Trump shows little interest in Syria. So Turkey has pivoted towards the new power in the region. Once a staunch opponent of the Syrian regime, Mr Erdogan now accepts that Mr Assad will remain in power. He is also furious about American support, started under Barack Obama, for Kurdish fighters in Syria, who have ties to militants in his own country. Egypt, always a nettlesome partner for America, knows Russia will not punish it for persecuting dissidents and democrats, as America did in August when it cut some aid.

Lately Russia has even made forays into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Though it is part of the peacemaking “quartet”, it has been the least-active member. Last year, however, Mr Putin offered to host a round of talks. In Ankara he damned Mr Trump’s decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. The issue has no strategic importance to him. Russia already has close ties with Israel; the stateless Palestinians offer nothing. But for Mr Putin, it was another chance to indict America.

Mr Putin may have a domestic audience in mind. Russians admire the president’s assertive foreign policy. The Middle East has been a central stage for him. But the Syrian war has generated little enthusiasm at home. Most Russians would prefer to see it wrapped up. While in Syria, Mr Putin said he would begin withdrawing troops. The “mission accomplished” moment could be seen as an opening salvo in his campaign for re-election. His victory next spring is not in doubt, but the Kremlin worries that turnout might be low.

With Russia’s economy still sputtering, the Middle East also offers a lucrative market. Rosneft, a state-run oil giant, is investing more than $1bn in infrastructure in Iraqi Kurdistan. The nuclear contract in Egypt is one of several across the region; both Jordan and Turkey have also signed up with Russia to build plants. The Syria campaign was a demonstration of Russian military kit, and perhaps a blueprint for future operations elsewhere. The ruthless deployment of modern air power proved an efficient means of changing facts on the ground. Pseudo-private military companies used as assault forces helped keep Russian casualties out of the public eye.

Yet talk of Russia as the new regional superpower is overblown. For one thing, Syria is hardly a resounding victory: Mr Assad is the enfeebled leader of a ruined country. So far Russia has tried to play all sides, working closely with Iran, while cultivating deeper ties with its arch-rival, Saudi Arabia. These relationships will inevitably come into conflict. Israel, for example, is privately seething at Russia’s refusal to restrain Iranian militias in Syria. Egypt enjoys over $1bn in annual aid from America. But if it allows Russian pilots to roam its air bases, it risks losing access to advanced American weapons and intelligence.

Nor is Russia the only state looking to fill the void left by America. Last month Emmanuel Macron, the French president, helped defuse a political crisis in Lebanon, and he took a stand against Mr Trump’s Jerusalem decision. Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, is flexing his muscles in Yemen and beyond. Mr Putin’s Mediterranean jaunt may help him at home, where he faces no real challengers. But the Middle East is getting crowded.