Actually, the first rule of any combat is to know your enemy. In the case of an epidemics, that means identifying peculiarities of the disease that are relevant to the response, in particular, who are most vulnerable. In the case of covid-19, the most vulnerable are the aged and infirm.

In Italy, the average age at death of a coronavirus victim was 79.5, only three years less than the nation's average life span. In the United States, according to CDC's latest statistics, one-third of those hospitalized were 85 or over. Sixty percent were older than 75 and the average age of the hospitalized population was 77. Moreover, the vast majority of the hospitalized population in the United States and of deaths in Italy occurred among patients who had one, two or three serious underlying conditions. In short, covid-19 is by and large killing only those who were in any case on the verge of death. Three years from now we may be barely able to detect its effects, since its victims would have died in any case in subsequent years.



What does that profile of victims suggest for strategy? Basically, it suggests a relatively modest program. The search for effective tests and vaccines can go forward; the more we know about this virus, the more capable will we be dealing with it or its relatives in the future. We should also try to isolate the vulnerable and comfort the dying. But an expenditure of trillions of dollars on efforts whose impact will be undetectable three years from now is not just wasteful, it's unforgivable. There are simply many problems in the world. Committing ourselves to do "whatever is necessary" in regard to each and every one is just idiocy.



Fortunately, there is a remedy for this problem. It's called budgeting - weighing the costs of acting or not acting in one area against the costs of acting or not acting in all the other areas of potential action. The media may spotlight one problem, but the general public, and the governments that represent them, must keep all issues in view. Bjorn Lomborg regularly makes this point in regard to global warming. The same prudent advice should be applied to covid-19.