Editor’s Note: This guest post was written by Zach Fifelski. You can follow him on Twitter @SuperFlexerFF.

If you play in a 2QB or Superflex league, you know the importance of quarterbacks. However, just in case you forgot, here’s a brief reminder:

In 2017, the average score needed to be a top-12 wide receiver for a week was 18.2 points in PPR leagues. Last year’s two best wideouts, Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins, were WR1s in 57 percent and 47 percent of their games, respectively. (Brown was the only receiver to put up WR1 numbers in more than 50 percent of his games). The average WR2 score (top-24 for a week) was 13.6 points. Brown and Hopkins finished top-24 (13.6 points or more) in 65 percent and 93 percent of their games, respectively.

Of the top-24 highest-scoring quarterbacks last year, 23 had top-24 finishes (scoring at least 12.9 points) in 60 percent or more of their games played. That number includes DeShone Kizer. Only three signal-callers scored as QB2s in 100 percent of their games: Carson Wentz, Drew Brees, and Cam Newton. There were five more who put up consistent QB2 numbers in at least 93 percent of their games: Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, and Ben Roethlisberger. Not only are quarterbacks some of the highest scorers in the game, but they score consistently.

So here’s the question: Should you enter the quarterback market in your 2QB or Superflex league? The answer is almost always yes.

There are three basic scenarios in which you can enter the QB market. I will discuss them below.

Trading for a Quarterback

If you are in a fantasy league that starts multiple quarterbacks and don’t have a second passer on your roster, you are severely handicapped, even if your QB1 is Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, or Carson Wentz.

So how do you go about trading for another passer? My personal strategy is to avoid trade targets who are driven by hype or generally have high stock. For me, this automatically removes players like Wentz, Watson, Jared Goff, and Jimmy Garoppolo. Their perceived value is sky-high, as they are currently being drafted as top-10 QBs. Even players from which we’ve seen very little, like Patrick Mahomes, are quickly gaining value (especially after the Alex Smith trade). Avoid targeting these players because any price you pay will be a premium, and for this exercise I’m assuming you are on a budget in terms of fantasy capital to trade with.

I recommend thinking about players who are being overlooked, have recently disappointed, or are generally disliked by the fantasy community. Here are some examples:

Overlooked: Alex Smith

Smith has been the butt of many jokes, but in reality, he’s been a consistent player, and a perfectly suitable QB2. (Editor’s Note: Zach was not paid to write this.)

Recently Disappointed: Derek Carr

Carr disappointed in 2017, but up until last year, he had consistently improved from season to season.

Generally Disliked: Blake Bortles

Welp. Bortles looked a lot better in the season’s final weeks and the playoffs, but not many expect him to be a long-term starter. If you want a stopgap player for a year, Bortles is your guy.

Ideally, either the owner of these players is looking to get rid of them, or simply doesn’t think much about them. In either case, the price will not be as high as it would be for players like Wentz and Watson.

Trading Methodology

I don’t like to trade draft picks. Once placed on your team, picks maintain their value. In most cases, they usually increase in value, all the way until you make a selection in the corresponding draft. Instead, I like to trade from a position the general public covets like wide receiver. Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins are core players who can win you weeks. Beyond them, many owners still hold onto an ideology that wideout is the preferred position to have in dynasty. Some of these owners are starting to come around, but the belief still exists.

Receiver is my preferred currency of choice because it’s generally easier to obtain pass-catchers. For example, Larry Fitzgerald was top-24 at his position last year, yet he was often drafted outside of the top 100 or so players. Now let’s return to the previously mentioned consistency stats I provided for wide receivers. Antonio Brown historically has been a top receiver every season, but even he only finishes top-12 in a little over 50 percent of his games. The wide receiver position is very volatile. A high-value currency with volatile production is exactly what I want to trade for a high-floor consistency of the quarterback position.

Consider trading one of your wideouts for a passer. If you are targeting one of the above mentioned players, you may not need to add much (if anything) to the package for a deal to happen. Don’t beat around the bush, either. Be straight and to the point, offering what you think is fair. If you end up needing to replace a wide receiver on your team, target a cheap guy who can score WR3-level points most weeks. Pierre Garcon, Devin Funchess, and Robert Woods are great targets in that regard.

If you are in a position where you know your backup quarterback isn’t going to cut it, the same strategy applies.

Other Situations: Upgrading and Downgrading at Quarterback

Sometimes you find yourself in a position where your starting quarterbacks are set, but you are lacking in other areas. A strategy here could be to downgrade to another player, but this doesn’t always mean sacrificing production.

Additionally, you can allow recency bias to impact the deal. Look at a player’s historical consistency and efficiency trends to identify viable targets. For example, consider Jameis Winston (ADP of 33.5) and Blake Bortles (ADP of 84.2).

The market values of these players according to ADP is vastly different. In general, the fantasy community values Winston much more than Bortles, but consider how consistent they are:

QB1 % QB2 % Bortles 39.42% 73.56% Winston 45.99% 65.22%

This chart calculates the percentage of games where Winston and Bortles scored as a top-12 quarterbacks or better, as well as a top-24 or better over their careers. While Winston has a higher top-12 percentage, Bortles has the better top-24 percentage — he has had a more solid floor.

Also keep in mind Winston’s 69 percent top-12 rate in 2017 was a career-high. Prior to that, he had back-to-back seasons where his top-12 percentage was under 40.

In addition, here are efficiency comparisons (an idea first explored by Chris Raybon) between Winston and Bortles. This looks at the metrics which correlate the most with quarterback production:

TD % Comp. % YPC YPA INT % Bortles 4.04% 59.13% 11.33 6.70 2.87% Winston 4.47% 60.78% 12.39 7.53 2.85%

Even though these players are over four rounds apart in ADP, the gaps between their historical consistency and efficiency are much smaller. If you want to improve depth across other positions in your roster, consider “downgrading” to an undervalued signal-caller like Bortles. The improvements you make at other positions will often make up for the value you give up at QB.

You can also exploit how leagues tend to value quarterbacks. In general, even the 32nd-ranked passer carries some value. If you can afford to move a passer for pieces you like (especially if doing so has no negative impact on your roster), it’s viable to do so. To figure out what types of non-quarterback commodities to target, I recommend looking for players who you believe in personally, haven’t broken out yet, and/or have disappointed fantasy owners in recent memory.

A Case Study in Trading Quarterbacks

In one of my Superflex IDP leagues last year, Marcus Mariota was the hot commodity during the offseason. This particular league has 64 owners and there are four copies of every player. This creates an interesting dynamic, as a specific player like Mariota being traded directly impacts the values of the other copies of that player and other players at the same position.

In the offseason last year, Aaron Rodgers was my main quarterback, but I had no backup. I set my eyes on the likes of Brian Hoyer, Josh McCown, and Goff during the draft, but came up empty-handed. My team was not in a position to win that year, so acquiring depth (draft picks and players) was my primary objective. I spent several weeks shopping Rodgers around, but often the price (whether perceived or real) wasn’t right. During that time, I managed to acquire Hoyer for Randall Cobb and a mid-round pick. It was good value at the time, considering Hoyer was projected to be San Francisco’s starter entering the season. Prior to his preseason debut, I also added DeShone Kizer in place of my fourth linebacker, which meant I entered the season with Rodgers, Hoyer, and Kizer at quarterback.

A couple of weeks into the season I was finally able to move Rodgers for Matt Ryan and a 2019 first-round pick. I wasn’t finished yet, however, as I later grouped Ryan with some of my older-yet-productive players to land Dak Prescott in a package with a couple of younger players I liked and some late draft picks. Because I already owned Kizer, I elected to move Brian Hoyer for JujJu Smith-Schuster (a week before he broke out — talk about luck!).

My last major move came late in the season, when the clear contender offered me Mariota in exchange for Dak and some extra pieces. I knew what he expected. He was looking at the offseason pricing for Mariota and wanted to cash in on some value. I had my conviction, however. I viewed Dak and Mariota very similarly in terms of consistency and efficiency, which enabled me to pass on the offer guilt-free. Weeks later, I was able to make a deal with the same owner, but it included upgrading several of my players and future draft picks.

In Conclusion

The quarterback marketplace in 2QB and Superflex leagues is different than any other format. By recognizing how recency bias affects player value, you can make good decisions based on player consistency and efficiency. I don’t mean to present myself as some sort of guru because I’m not perfect. For example, I was fortunate enough to get DeShone Kizer for a bargain late in the offseason, but I passed on several opportunities to sell him at a profit. You won’t always hit on players either, but if you can come out on top of 60 to 70 percent of your moves, you will improve your roster steadily over time. Who knows, at some point you might find yourself acquiring the next Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees.