Small Forward

Let me preface this by saying that I am a fan of Wilson Chandler…but I think Rudy Gay is better. I tend to think of Chandler as a stopper, but according to NBA.com’s Defensive Rating, the Kings only allow 0.9 points more with Gay on the floor than the Nuggets do with Chandler. Considering that Gay is better than Chandler on the offensive end, I think you have to take Rudy. Last thing I’ll say about this, since Chandler joined the Nuggets (let’s not count ‘11-’12 where he only played 8 games) his PPG has stayed the same, his FG% is down, and his 3P% is way down. Rudy, in the same time frame, has improved in all of those categories.

Here’s a matchup you have probably never thought about: Omri Casspi vs. Danilo Gallinari! Excitement abounds… Gallinari puts up more numbers, but Casspi shoots about 5% better from 3 and nearly 9% better in terms of field goal percentage. To be fair, Gallinari kills Casspi at the free throw line (16% better last year), but Casspi has a higher Assist Ratio, Rebounding Percentage, and Effective FG%. Edge to Casspi in every category except free throws and notoriety.

My question is, clearly Gay is the starter and Casspi is the backup, but on the Denver side, how will Mike Malone balance Chandler (31.7 mpg last year) and Gallinari (24.2 mpg)? The Nuggets also added Papanikolaou who further complicates the log jam without adding a ton of numbers, though he has a nice upside.

Last question, would you rather have Nick Johnson or Caron Butler for the next two years? I’m a Pac-12 guy, so I’ve known about Johnson for awhile, but in the two years will he have the opportunity to be more impactful than Butler? I hope so…

Power Forwards

Before Kings fans absolutely lose their minds, here’s why this is a draw: 1. I don’t like the lack of big men depth on Sacramento’s roster especially when compared to all the options the Nuggets have, and 2. I really love Faried’s game, and the upside of their young power forwards and centers.

Look, I know Boogie is a good deal better than Faried. First of all, Faried is simply not on the court as much as Boogie is. Did you know he has never averaged more than 28 minutes per game in a season? I don’t know if Denver is just trying to increase the length of his career or they simply have some good depth that they want to give minutes to, but either way, he’s less of a factor because he plays less. Now, when he’s on the floor, he’s a great player, but not as great as Cousins.

The average NBA fan may look at Joffrey Lauvergne’s numbers from last year and shrug, but if you look at his per 36 minutes stats, you’re looking at a potential 12.5 and 10 guy. If you check out his highlights, albeit often in garbage time, you see a guy with quick feet, good fundamental post game, shot-blocking abilities, and a decent shot. He may not change many games, but he should see increased minutes, and look for him to continue to improve.

Darrell Arthur and J.J. Hickson are nothing at all to write home about, but they provide experience and depth that the Kings don’t really have. Sure, Boogie is better than Faried, but Arthur plus Hickson plus Lauvernge’s potential is clearly better than Quincy Acy, and for that reason, I have to conclude that this is a draw.