Finding No. 5048 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, July 19-21, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,572 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

This week’s Morgan Poll is unchanged. The ALP 52.5% would still win election ahead of the L-NP 47.5% on a two-party preferred basis.

The ALP primary vote is 41.5% (down 0.5%), just ahead of the L-NP primary vote at 41% (unchanged).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 9% (up 2%) and support for Independents/ Others is 8.5% (down 1.5%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1%.

For the Poll Nerds! Calculation of Two-Party preferred vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated:

The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: ALP (52.5%) cf. L-NP (47.5%). When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors voted at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll and Fairfax Nielsen – the Morgan Poll shows a slightly closer result: ALP (52%, up 0.5%) cf. L-NP (48%, down 0.5%).

Although not everyone votes ‘the card’, how the preferences of minor parties are allocated on Election Day will depend on the ‘deals’ that are done by various parties and the ‘cards’.

If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,572 Australian electors aged 18+. The Morgan Poll surveys a significantly larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has improved in the last week – up 5.5pts to 115 – the highest since November 2012 (116.5). Now 48.5% (up 3.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 33.5% (down 2%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows Women swinging back to the ALP this week and still clearly favour the ALP (55.5%, up 2.5%) cf. L-NP (44.5%, down 2.5%) on a two party preferred basis. Men are evenly split: ALP 50% (down 1.5%) cf. L-NP 50% (up 1.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“The Papua New Guinea ‘Solution’ has helped the ALP maintain their winning position and resulted in a 2% increase in support for the Greens.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Contact us to for a free 2-week-trial of our weekly Federal Election Voting Intention report (offer valid till 15 August 2013).

Finding No. 5048 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, July 19-21, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,572 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.





ANALYSIS BY GENDER

MEN

PRIMARY VOTE Multi-Mode June

28-30, 2013 July

5-7, 2013 July

12-14, 2013 July

19-21, 2013 % % % % ALP 39.5 39.5 42.5 39.5 L-NP 44 (3.5) 42.5 (3) 42 (3.5) 44 (2.5) Greens 5 7 5.5 7 Ind. /Other 11.5 11 10 9.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 48.5 51.5 51.5 50 L-NP 51.5 48.5 48.5 50 TOTAL 100 100 100 100

WOMEN

PRIMARY VOTE Multi-Mode June

28-30, 2013 July

5-7, 2013 July

12-14, 2013 July

19-21, 2013 % % % % ALP 39.5 43 41.5 43 L-NP 37 (3.5) 36.5 (3) 40.5 (2.5) 38 (3) Greens 11 10 8.5 10 Ind. /Other 12.5 10.5 9.5 9 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 54 57 53 55.5 L-NP 46 43 47 44.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100





ANALYSIS BY CITIES/ REGIONS

CAPITAL CITIES

PRIMARY VOTE June

28-30, 2013 July

5-7, 2013 July

12-14, 2013 July

19-21, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 40 42.5 42 41 -1 L-NP 40.5 (0.5) 38.5 (1) 41.5 (1) 41 (1) -0.5 Greens 8.5 9.5 8 10.5 +2.5 Ind. /Other 11 9.5 8.5 7.5 -1 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 52 55.5 52.5 53 +0.5 L-NP 48 44.5 47.5 47 -0.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 2,071 2,153 2,090 2,130





COUNTRY AREAS

PRIMARY VOTE June

28-30, 2013 July

5-7, 2013 July

12-14, 2013 July

19-21, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 38 40.5 42 42.5 +0.5 L-NP 40.5 (8) 41 (6.5) 40.5 (6) 41 (5) +0.5 Greens 8.5 6.5 6 6.5 +0.5 Ind. /Other 13 12 11.5 10.0 -1.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 50 52.5 52 52 - L-NP 50 47.5 48 48 - TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 1,349 1,357 1,341 1,442

ANALYSIS BY STATE

NEW SOUTH WALES

PRIMARY VOTE June

28-30, 2013 July

5-7, 2013 July

12-14, 2013 July

19-21, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 38.5 41.5 42.5 44 +1.5 L-NP 44.5 (6.5) 41 (4) 42.5 (3.5) 39.5 (3.5) -3 Greens 7 9 5.5 7 +1.5 Ind. /Other 10 8.5 9.5 9.5 - TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 48.5 54.5 51.5 54 +2.5 L-NP 51.5 45.5 48.5 46 -2.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 992 1,070 1,044 1,085

VICTORIA

PRIMARY VOTE June

28-30, 2013 July

5-7, 2013 July

12-14, 2013 July

19-21, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 43 42 43.5 41.5 -2 L-NP 35 (2) 38 (2.5) 39 (3) 39 (2.5) - Greens 10.5 11 9.5 13 +3.5 Ind. /Other 11.5 9 8 6.5 -1.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 57.5 56.5 55.5 55 -0.5 L-NP 42.5 43.5 44.5 45 +0.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 939 928 881 898

QUEENSLAND

PRIMARY VOTE June

28-30, 2013 July

5-7, 2013 July

12-14, 2013 July

19-21, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 36 46 41.5 39.5 -2 LNP 41.5 34 41 (1) 45 (1.5) +4 Greens 7.5 5 5.5 5.5 - Ind. /Other 15 15 12 10 -2 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 49 57 50 48.5 -1.5 LNP 51 43 50 51.5 +1.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 608 705 643 705





WESTERN AUSTRALIA

PRIMARY VOTE June

28-30, 2013 July

5-7, 2013 July

12-14, 2013 July

19-21, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 33 34 34 31.5 -2.5 L-NP 48 (7) 49.5 (7) 48.5 (7) 51 (4) +2.5 Greens 7.5 7 9 9.5 +0.5 Ind. /Other 11.5 9.5 8.5 8 -0.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 40.5 44 46 40 -6 L-NP 59.5 56 54 60 +6 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 322 271 293 334

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

PRIMARY VOTE June

28-30, 2013 July

5-7, 2013 July

12-14, 2013 July

19-21, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 38.5 33 40.5 43.5 +3 L-NP 41 (0.5) 42 38.5 (0.5) 35.5 (1.5) -3 Greens 10.5 8.5 9 11 +2 Ind. /Other 10 16.5 12 10 -2 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 53 49.5 51.5 60.5 +9 L-NP 47 50.5 48.5 39.5 -9 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 303 274 296 254





TASMANIA*

PRIMARY VOTE June

28-30, 2013 July

5-7, 2013 July

12-14, 2013 July

19-21, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 55 40.5 46 36.5 -9.5 L-NP 29.5 (0) 42 (1) 37 (0) 35 -2 Greens 9 6 6 10.5 +4.5 Ind. /Other 6.5 11.5 11 18 +7 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 67.5 52 61.5 55 -6.5 L-NP 32.5 48 38.5 45 +6.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 133 150 151 132

*Please note. The small sample size in Tasmania means the Tasmanian figures should be treated with a degree of caution on their own. The figures are primarily used as part of a larger sample.

ANALYSIS BY AGE

18-24

PRIMARY VOTE June

28-30, 2013 July

5-7, 2013 July

12-14, 2013 July

19-21, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 38 42.5 38 40 +2 L-NP 30.5 (2) 26 (2.5) 30 (1) 35 (2) +5 Greens 11 15 13 16 +3 Ind. /Other 20.5 16.5 19 9 -10 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 59.5 65 59.5 57 -2.5 L-NP 40.5 35 40.5 43 +2.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 265 226 240 257

25-34

PRIMARY VOTE June

28-30, 2013 July

5-7, 2013 July

12-14, 2013 July

19-21, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 40 46.5 45.5 44 -1.5 L-NP 35 (2) 31.5 (2) 34.5 (2) 32.5 (1.5) -2 Greens 13 10 11.5 13.5 +2 Ind. /Other 12 12 8.5 10 +1.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 55 62 58.5 59 +0.5 L-NP 45 38 41.5 41 -0.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 506 485 481 491

35-49

PRIMARY VOTE June

28-30, 2013 July

5-7, 2013 July

12-14, 2013 July

19-21, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 42 43 44.5 41 -3.5 L-NP 36(2) 37.5 (2) 39 (2.5) 40 (2.5) +1 Greens 9.5 9.5 6.5 9 +2.5 Ind. /Other 12.5 10 10 10 - TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 53.5 56.5 55 53 -2 L-NP 46.5 43.5 45 47 +2 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 908 912 892 879

50-64

PRIMARY VOTE June

28-30, 2013 July

5-7, 2013 July

12-14, 2013 July

19-21, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 39 40.5 40 42 +2 L-NP 44.5 (4) 42.5 (4) 45 (3) 42 (2.5) -3 Greens 7 7.5 6 7.5 +1.5 Ind. /Other 9.5 9.5 9 8.5 -0.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 48.5 51 49.5 52 +2.5 L-NP 51.5 49 50.5 48 -2.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 1,013 1,104 1,015 1,143

65+

PRIMARY VOTE June

28-30, 2013 July

5-7, 2013 July

12-14, 2013 July

19-21, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 37 36.5 40 39 -1 L-NP 51 (6.5) 51 (3.5) 49.5 (4.5) 49.5 (3.5) - Greens 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.5 +1 Ind. /Other 8.5 9 7 7 - TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 45.5 44.5 44.5 47 +2.5 L-NP 54.5 55.5 55.5 53 -2.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 746 794 803 802





TOTAL

PRIMARY VOTE June

28-30, 2013 July

5-7, 2013 July

12-14, 2013 July

19-21, 2013 % Change

this week % % % % % ALP 39.5 41.5 42 41.5 -0.5 L-NP 40.5 (3.5) 39.5 (3) 41 (3) 41 (2.5) - Greens 8.5 8.5 7 9 +2 Ind. /Other 11.5 10.5 10 8.5 -1.5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED ALP 51.5 54.5 52.5 52.5 - L-NP 48.5 45.5 47.5 47.5 - TOTAL 100 100 100 100 Sample size 3,438 3,521 3,431 3,572





For further information:

Contact Office Mobile Gary Morgan: +61 3 9224 5213 +61 411 129 094 Michele Levine: +61 3 9224 5215 +61 411 129 093

Data Tables

















Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.