WAS Barack Obama “a dick” when he said Congress was less diligent than his 12- and ten-year-old daughters, as an editor for Time magazine suggested this morning? Or is it the Republicans in Congress who are the bad guys, as many on the left are suggesting, for walking out of talks about raising the limit on the government's borrowing? And does all the name-calling suggest that negotiations have broken down irreparably, that the debt ceiling will not be lifted by the deadline of August 2nd, and that some kind of financial calamity will ensue?

Washington has had its knickers in a twist over these questions this week, which is odd, since most Washingtonians have been predicting for months that it would come to this. Pundits have said all along that it would be near-impossible to reach a deal, that both sides were locked into irreconcilable negotiating positions, that the brinkmanship would go to the, er, brink and so on and so forth. How reassuring at such a gloomy juncture to know that the media, at least, has been doing its job even more promptly and thoroughly than Sasha and Malia.

From a naïve philosophical stance, it's hard to escape the conclusion that the Republicans are in the wrong. As Mr Obama pointed out, they voted for the budget resolution currently in force, but are now denying the Treasury the authority to pay for all the measures it contains. They cannot simultaneously instruct the government to spend money and then refuse to give it any: it's totally inconsistent and reckless to boot.

But from a more grimly realist perspective, it's hard to escape the conclusion that the Republicans have a lot to lose by doing the right thing, whereas the political consequences of doing the wrong thing are uncertain. Their supporters, even more than the electorate in general, are implacably opposed to raising the debt ceiling, in part because they see it, wrongly, as a harbinger of future profligacy, rather than a hangover from past spending binges. Many freshman Republicans in Congress swore never to vote in favour of a rise. They are sure to face primary challengers who will accuse them of treason if they go back on their word. By contrast, if a failure to raise the debt limit throws the financial markets, not to mention the government's finances, into chaos, the political fallout is likely to be more general and diffuse.

That is not to say that the Republicans demanding swingeing spending cuts and rejecting even the most innocuous of revenue-raising measures as the price of raising the debt ceiling have no consciences. On the contrary, my wager is still that a deal will eventually be done, for the good of the country, as rube-ish as that sounds. But it still makes sense for the Republicans to hold out to the last minute and to extract the best deal possible, to minimise the embarrassment inherent in any eventual climbdown. If the Democrats lose their nerve and fold altogether, so much the better.

The example of TARP is instructive, and not simply because Congress toyed with the idea of allowing the world to end for a few days before deciding against it. Republicans who voted for TARP are still paying the price: many were defenestrated by their own party at the past election, and more are likely to be this time around (Orrin Hatch, say, or Richard Lugar). People in that position naturally want to be sure they've exhausted all other options before doing the right thing, which means twisted knickers will be the default in Washington for several more weeks.

(Photo credit: AFP)