BENGALURU: Karnataka, which has been reeling under drought for the fourth consecutive year, is now pinning hopes on the Met department’s prediction of normal monsoon in the country.Karnatakahas been keeping its fingers crossed after Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency, anticipated ‘below normal rainfall’ this year. However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted that seasonal rainfall would be 96% of the long period average rainfall for the year, thereby raising the possibilities of ending the four-year drought spell in the state. Normal or average monsoon means rainfall between 96-104% of a 50-year average of 89cm during the four-month season from June.“IMD predictions are highly authentic as it is linked to a vast number of weather stations and also considers experimental forecasts of various national and international institutes,’’ said C Putanna, a weather expert.He said the overall scenario, as of now, looks positive. “But, given the experience of the past two years, it is better we wait for the second prediction in June which provides details of month-wise quantitative distribution which may accentuate in the later half or the middle of monsoon,” he added.Farmers too are hopeful of a better agriculture season and respite from heat wave and severe water crisis. The major reservoirs, including Krishna Raja Sagar which supplies water to Mysuru and Bengaluru, is nearing dead storage. The state has requested Maharashtra to release water from Krishna river to tide over the drinking crisis in north Karnataka and is considering water rationing in Bengaluru after June 15.“A poor monsoon will have direct impact on the economy, as only 26.5% of the sown area is subjected to irrigation and rest of the cultivated land is dependent on rainfall. It also influences the quantity of water available in rivers which in turn impacts the amount of drinking water available and the amount of electricity that can be produced,” said N Manjunath, a researcher at the University of Agriculture Sciences.Three years of drought has spelled disaster for the farming community and the state has recorded over 2,000 suicides in 2016-17.Box 1Political linkFarmers’ votes will be crucial in determining the fortunes of the ruling Congress when the state goes to polls in 2018. A normal monsoon raises the prospect of revival in the agriculture sector in Karnataka (85% of the sector is rainfed) and facilitates a positive mood in favour of the government, say political experts.Box 2Karnataka, which has the extent of arid land second only to Rajasthan, has become a drought-prone state in recent times. The average annual rainfall in Karnataka is 1,248 mm. The state is divided into three meteorological zones -- north-interior, south-interior and coastal Karnataka. The coast, with an average annual rainfall of 3,456 mm, is one of the country’s most rainy regions. South-interior and north-interior regions receive 1,286mm and 731mm of average annual rainfall. While Udupi gets the highest rainfall of 4,119 mm, Bagalkot district gets the least -- 523 mm.We are carefulThe prediction of normal rainfall has brought a limited sense of relief. We hope for a normal monsoon but will tread cautiously. Forecasts for most of the past years haven’t matched with actual rainfallAgriculture minister Krishna Byre Gowda