I suppose there was a time, long ago, when a politician could say something in one part of the country that would adversely affect another region, without word getting out. Like promising to subsidize the fisheries in the Maritimes while musing about phasing them out somewhere else. Back in the days when all politics really was local, the one-chess-move technique could prove effective.

But when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau blurted out a few weeks back in Peterborough that the oilsands would have to be “phased out”, he hadn’t contemplated his next chess move, nor the one after that. What would he say when he landed in Calgary ten days later for a cabinet retreat? What could he offer, other than an apology?

Both the purpose and location of this cabinet retreat were curious. Trudeau’s government is only one and one half years old and this is the second time he’s taken his cabinet retreat to Alberta. Maybe the prime minister is a closet Flames fan. Or maybe he’s eyeing two upcoming byelections to replace the two heaviest hitters in the last government — Stephen Harper and Jason Kenney.

To take over seats once held by a former prime minister and his most powerful lieutenant would be a stunning coup. But then along came that crack about the oilsands.

It’s worth recalling the official purpose for the Calgary cabinet retreat, and the cabinet shuffle that preceded it: formulating a strategy to deal with the new Trump administration. The problem, of course, is that you can’t really come up with a strategy to deal with a political force so unconventional, so unpredictable and volatile … so random.

Trade and the North American Free Trade Agreement were certainly top of mind, given how has Trump bellowed continually for the last eighteen months that he would rip up the Trans Pacific Partnership and renegotiate NAFTA. The TPP is dead now, but Washington seems to be signalling that Trump is much more concerned about a low-wage Mexico than a high-wage Canada. So Trudeau may have dodged a bullet.

Politicians seldom care where they score points. Keystone XL was approved on Harper’s watch, but Trudeau and Alberta Premier Rachel Notley now get to bask in the reflected glow of 4,500 construction jobs predicted for Canada. Politicians seldom care where they score points. Keystone XL was approved on Harper’s watch, but Trudeau and Alberta Premier Rachel Notley now get to bask in the reflected glow of 4,500 construction jobs predicted for Canada.

And then came the random: Trump issued an executive order to revive the Keystone XL pipeline project scotched by the Obama administration — a project believed dead and out of the headlines for over a year.

Trudeau has supported Keystone XL since his days in opposition. This project has seen far greater opposition south of the border than here at home, and less opposition than pipeline projects closer to the coast. (About 200,000 litres of oil spilled near Stoughton, Sask., last week, covering a 20 metre radius — but the fact that it’s Prairie oil virtually guarantees there will be no protests, at least nothing comparable to those over the Kinder Morgan project.)

Word is TransCanada’s seven-year-old regulatory approval for the project probably won’t need a new review; apparently the much maligned Harper-era National Energy Board approval process is good enough for Keystone. The previous government’s approval will stand … at least until it gets to North Dakota.

And after that? President Trump has already said there will be conditions. Trump’s style is to impose rather than negotiate terms and he seems to have the leverage to do so. There undoubtedly will be some “America First” conditions imposed on supply contracts (an interesting “alternative fact” for you: Pennsylvania steel is way stronger than the stuff they produce in Hamilton or Regina).

At this point, it hardly matters. Politicians seldom care where they score points. Keystone XL was approved on Harper’s watch, but Trudeau and Alberta Premier Rachel Notley now get to bask in the reflected glow of 4,500 construction jobs predicted for Canada.

The PM had to endure a tough crowd at his town hall last night at the University of Calgary. There were protesters both inside and out, but their lack of any unified message greatly diminished their impact (many were pro-pipeline, some were anti-oilsands).

Trudeau already had conceded that he “misspoke” in Peterborough. “The greatest responsibility of any prime minster is to get our resources to market and yes, that includes the oilsands,” he said. I tend to think the first responsibility of any government is to keep its citizens safe from threats foreign and domestic. But Trudeau was speaking in Calgary, where the notion of “threat” has a very industry-focused meaning.

So how’s this for irony? Justin Trudeau is now the Pipeline Prime Minister, shutting out Stephen Harper by a score of 3-0 (at least in terms of conditional approvals for tidewater projects that might someday get built). And the Calgary cabinet retreat was an unequivocal success, with the tariff spectre largely dispelled and a dead pipeline suddenly resurrected.

And all Trudeau and his crew had to do was lock themselves in a Calgary hotel boardroom for two days and watch CNN.

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