THE Falcon will die in 2016.



The death notice was posted today with news of the 440 job losses at Ford Australia and the continued decline in production at the company's Broadmeadows factory.

The family-sized Ford has been on a slippery slope for nearly a decade, and the Holden Commodore has also been going badly backwards this year as customers have switched in ever-increasing numbers to imported SUVs.

Things would probably have been even worse for Ford and its workforce if the Territory SUV was not contributing 50 per cent of sales for the troubled carmaker, which is being hit worst by a another 25 per cent downturn in large-car sales this year.

No-one at Ford is making any promises beyond the end of 2016, following a planned update to the current Falcon in 2014 that's partly funded by more than $30 million from the Federal government.

That says everything about the Falcon and, most likely, Ford's extremely shaky future as a local manufacturer.

But the trouble runs deeper, as the closure of Ford's car-making business would almost certainly have knock-on effects at Holden and Toyota.

The other two local brands rely on a web of Australian companies that supply components for their Commodore, Cruze, Camry and Aurion. Those suppliers need a critical mass for local production and, more importantly, the ongoing investment in new technology and components.

Without Ford Australia as a local producer, their future would also be shaky and - in a major knock-on - that could easily undermine the plans of Holden and Toyota.

And it's important to remember that the Commodore is only locked in place until the end of 2016, although Holden - thanks to the Cruze, and the showrooms success of the locally-made compact car - is committed to a much longer future as a manufacturer.

So today's announcement could easily be the beginning of the end for Ford Australia - and perhaps even worse for the Australian motor industry.



Originally published as The end of the Ford Falcon