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If it was Tuesday, it must have been Ontario. All three major party leaders were in southern Ontario this week, elbowing each other for access to voters in the three area codes that will decide the outcome of this election.

In the Greater Toronto Area, the 416 and 905 codes, there are 54 seats — which would make the GTA Canada’s third largest province after Ontario and Quebec. Justin Trudeau and the Liberal caravan spent most of the day in downtown Toronto, appearing in three 416 ridings held by the NDP, before moving on to Kitchener for two more events at the end of the day. He also spent some time telling alienated Red Tory voters that there’s a home for them in the Liberal tent.

Tom Mulcair began his day in suburban 905, standing in front of the General Motors Centre in Oshawa, denouncing the Trans-Pacific Partnership over the concessions the Conservatives made on rules-of-origin in the auto industry. It was Angry Tom at his best, delivering a blistering assault on the Conservatives for giving away highly-paid union auto jobs — and on Justin Trudeau for waffling on the TPP.

Stephen Harper was in Etobicoke in western 416, where he was joined by Rob and Doug Ford, before moving on to a media availability, where he targeted the Liberals as a tax-and-spend party.

“If you make it, they take and spend it,” he said. To make his point, the owner of the business hosting the event laid money on the table as Harper called out how much each Liberal promise would cost him — his comments punctuated by the sound of a cash register ringing out. It was a strong visual gimmick — but the sound effects also made Harper look less like a prime minister and more like a game show host. Hard to tell how that might play on the evening news.

Nobody was wondering about Harper’s sudden decision to focus his fire on the Liberals, who now have the wind in their sails. The latest EKOS tracking poll for iPolitics reports a surge by the Liberals and a slide by the Conservatives in Ontario and Quebec over the Thanksgiving weekend.

Where EKOS had the Conservatives in front of the Liberals 36-33, with the NDP at 19 per cent through Saturday, its Tuesday report shows the Liberals moving out to a five-point 36-31 lead over the Conservatives, with the NDP back up to 21 per cent.

But it’s the regional numbers in Quebec and Ontario that tell the story of voters talking turkey over the long weekend, and moving away from the Conservatives to the Liberals.

In Quebec, where EKOS saw a three-way tie on Sunday, with the NDP at 27, Liberals at 25 and Conservatives at 24 per cent, by Tuesday EKOS was reporting the Liberals surging to 31 per cent, with the NDP at 30 per cent — and the Conservatives plummeting to 17 per cent.

Two things are going on here. First, progressive ‘change voters’ are moving from the NDP to the Liberals. Second, Harper overplayed his hand on the identity issue last week when he mused about banning the niqab in the public service, as well as at citizenship ceremonies. Two things are going on here. First, progressive ‘change voters’ are moving from the NDP to the Liberals. Second, Harper overplayed his hand on the identity issue last week when he mused about banning the niqab in the public service, as well as at citizenship ceremonies.

That’s a seven-point drop in only two days, and it indicates that the niqab effect may have waned over the long weekend and turned against the Conservatives, even in Quebec.

At 17 per cent in Quebec, the Conservatives would win half a dozen seats at most in the Quebec City region, rather than the 20 seats they would win at 25 per cent.

In Ontario, where EKOS had reported a 39-39 Liberal-Conservative split at mid-weekend, with the NDP at only 14 per cent, by weekend’s end it reported the Liberals moving out to a big 43-31 lead, with the NDP at 17 per cent.

That would explain why those NDP ridings in Toronto, which weren’t on the Liberals’ list of winnable seats only two weeks ago, were suddenly worth a campaign stop by Trudeau on Tuesday.

Two things are going on here. First, progressive ‘change voters’ are moving from the NDP to the Liberals. These are the strategic ‘ABC voters’ who will support anyone in a position to beat Harper.

Second, Harper overplayed his hand on the identity issue last week when he mused about banning the niqab in the public service, as well as at citizenship ceremonies.

“It appears that the values issue has blown up in Harper’s face,” says EKOS President Frank Graves. “The shift from the economy has triggered a broader values debate that appears to awakened the slumbering moderate majority.

“The story of this election is that an important election on the economy has become a historic election on values.”

Something else was going on over the long weekend. After voters talked about the election around the family table, more than three million of them voted in advance polls that were open over four days.

Graves says EKOS was able to track the advance turnout by asking respondents if they had already voted. While Graves says many advance voters declined to reveal how they voted, they didn’t mind sharing the fact that they had voted. By Tuesday, advance voters counted for nearly 20 per cent of the EKOS sample.

What this amounts to is an exit poll in all but name, and what EKOS sees in the advance poll, says Graves, is a “neck-and-neck race” between the Conservatives and Liberals, with the NDP out of the running.

This isn’t difficult to figure out. Younger ‘change’ voters streamed to the advance poll to support the Liberals, with the Conservatives’ older cohort also turning out in droves — and the New Democrats simply may not have had the Get Out the Vote organization on the ground to match their opponents.

L. Ian MacDonald is editor of Policy, the bi-monthly magazine of Canadian politics and public policy. He is the author of five books. He served as chief speechwriter to Prime Minister Brian Mulroney from 1985-88, and later as head of the public affairs division of the Canadian Embassy in Washington from 1992-94. The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.