Carl Bildt maintains that the so-called “BTP effect” - Brexit, Trump, Putin - has through out 2017 saved the EU from falling apart and "convinced even skeptical Europeans that EU-level cooperation is necessary." While the outlook is no longer as grim as it was a year ago, the EU is not yet out of the woods and he warns against complacency, saying it could plunge Europe into a crisis yet again in 2018.

The year 2016 was an annus horribilis that saw Britain voting to leave the EU and America electing Trump. There was fear that the populist wave would engulf Europe as elections were to be held in the Netherlands, France and Germany. Although the populist tide did turn earlier this year, Germany's far-right party, the AfD won big later in September.

Before the German elections, there was much hope placed on France's newly-elected Emmanuel Macron, who - together with Angela Merkel - would restart the Franco-German engine that would pull the EU train into the 21st century. As Merkel failed to win big she is now struggling to form a coalition government. Earlier talks with the Greens and Free Democrats collapsed. Now the former ruling partners are exploring the potential of building a new grand coalition.

Although Britain's politics had been broken by Brexit and consumed by its concerns, sending a warning to the other EU member states, it may not deter others from sowing discord, in an effort to weaken the EU, by fanning hostile nationalism towards the supranationalist union. Even if Hungary, Austria, Bavaria, and Italy, will most unlikely follow Britain's example, they cast a shadow on the EU stability.

Trump is seen as posing a greater threat to the EU than North Korea and Russia. Merkel had come to the conclusion since Trump's visits to Europe that we Europeans must take matters into our own hads and shape our future. Putin's meddling in elections on both sides of the Atlantic, his aggression in Eastern Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea instil fear in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia.

As economy is recovering thanks to low interest rates, and trade deals have been concluded with major partners that could replace Britain, there is no reason for smugness. "Despite many positive developments, governance is becoming more complicated within certain European countries, owing to an increasingly fractured political landscape." It is unclear what sort of government awaits Germany, and whether it would be able to continue " its customary role as Europe’s anchor of stability."

The author says 2018 will be the "last chance to pursue EU-level reforms before a fateful year of reckoning begins." If things go according to plan Britain will leave the EU in March 2019, with or without a deal. In May, the European Parliament will hold elections, and "new leaders will be appointed for the EU’s core institutions." Jean-Claude Juncker, a federalist who urges for a closer union, will step down as president of the European Commission.

It remains to be seen whethr Merkel can persuade and convince her opponents, who might not support her joint efforts with Macron to implement his EU-reform agenda. As the European Commission will be "running out of time to pursue any new initiatives that could realistically be finalized before 2019," it is therefore imperative that other leaders move on. Indeed the Visegrad countries - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia - are already going their own way, deviating from EU norms and rule of law.

The author says, "while the gloom and doom of 2016 may have receded, it could all too easily return. Sustaining the momentum generated by Macron’s election in France and realizing the promise that it holds will require decisive action in the months ahead." There is still a chance that Merkel might find the time and energy to revive and save the European project, because she wants to see it as her legacy.