There are interesting ingredients for the UK and Ireland’s weather this week. Set against sodden ground and high river levels, there will be more rain, so the flood risk remains. An approaching ex-Tropical Storm, Sebastien is expected to bring stormy conditions to SW Ireland on Tuesday and then gales for the English Channel into Wednesday. It’s transitioned into a normal low pressure but just has a bit of extra oomph thanks to its late season tropical origins. This low will influence our weather for the middle of the week and then as it clears away over the North Sea there will be a pull of colder air from the North and quite a chill by Friday. With another low forecast to approach from the SW by Saturday there will be wintry showers for NE Britain but possibly some snow as the frontal rain hits that cold air over Wales, maybe even the West Country. One month til Christmas.

For Monday, there is still a fair amount of cloud about, it is mild and there is patchy rain. Bands are working their way northwards with bright spells appearing in-between. There are still yellow warnings or rain over SW Britain, but the showers are fading here and these end at 10am. There has been quite a feed of rain up from the Channel into Dorset and Wiltshire this morning already and there is a flood warning on the River Clyst.

It will feel mild enough today with temperatures up to 12 or 13C for southern Britain, 8 to 10C for northern Britain and Northern Ireland. There is a light to moderate E to SE breeze which veers to the SW. It looks wet this evening for the Central Belt of Scotland with a scattering of heavier showers around the Irish Sea and a few still for southern Britain. Mostly tonight looks cloudy and mild with the rain moving north over Scotland before the next lot arrives in the far SW.