Theory that recession leads to rising property crime is rooted in experience of late 1980s that now seems an anomaly

Criminologists say the absence of a 1980s-style "loadsamoney" culture may be a key factor behind the austerity-defying downward trend in nearly all types of crime in England and Wales.

There is no shortage of competing explanations for the crime rate falling by half since its peak in 1995 – from the removal of lead from paint and petrol, to smartphones killing teenage boredom.

But most criminologists are surprised that the economic downturn has not reversed the long-term trend. The crime survey for England and Wales estimates that there were 8.9 million crimes against adults in 2012, the lowest number since the survey began in 1981.

Professor Mike Hough, of Birkbeck University's institute of criminal policy research, who was part of the team that started the crime survey, said the theory that recession led to rising property crime was rooted in the experience of the later Thatcher years, when the crime rate climbed sharply.

"We are not seeing the same strong 'loadsamoney' culture that was evident then. The current economic crisis is not characterised by such visible personal consumerism. Indeed, most people now seem to be wary of being seen as such conspicuous consumers," he said.

There seems to be consensus among criminologists that the more common-sense, crime-specific explanations hold good. So it is accepted that thefts of and from cars have fallen sharply (down 75% since 1995) as manufacturers have improved security and stopped installing removable radios or satnavs.

Similarly, the decline in burglary (down 64% to a 30-year low) can be put down to better window locks and alarms, and the unwieldy size of the modern television screen that makes it more difficult to steal.

Hough said the fall in violence could be linked to a shift in teenagers' attitudes towards alcohol, with far fewer young people drinking and those who do drinking less. He also pointed to better management of pubs and clubs that means drunken fights are happening far less often. It seems a more convincing explanation than theories about less lead in the atmosphere.

But as consistent downward trends are now being shown in nearly every category of crime – with the single exception of an 8% rise in mobile phone thefts in the street – experts are looking at more general, cultural explanations.

Hough said the sharp rise in crime in the late 1980s was now beginning to look like a historical anomaly in a long-term trend of growing intolerance towards crime. "You can say that London in 1750 was a lot scarier place than London is in 2013," he said.

Perhaps the biggest mystery about the falling crime rate is why no politician has been willing to claim the credit for what must be one of the greatest improvements in modern Britain. The obvious explanation is that they don't want to be accused of complacency when the next grisly murder hits the headlines, at a time when most voters don't believe that national crime rates have fallen.

People have long been prepared to believe that crime is down in their neighbourhood while holding the firm view that it has continued to soar out of control elsewhere. But Hough said even that might be beginning to change.