WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump's escalating trade skirmish with China isn't taking a big bite out of Texas' agriculture industry — for now.

China this week implemented some $3 billion in tariffs on goods ranging from tree nuts to pork to cherries, with the country's trade officials making clear that the ag-heavy action was retaliation for Trump's decision last month to impose stiff import levies on steel and aluminum.

The 128-item tariff list did hit some Texas stalwarts, such as pecans, that rely on trade to China. But it avoided the state's big-ticket products like beef, sorghum and corn. Other Texas classics, such as red grapefruit, also made the list. But they aren't exported to China in great numbers.

The relative reprieve, however, doesn't mean Texas' farmers and ranchers are resting easy.

Both the U.S. and China have pledged to up the ante, rattling the stock market with the prospect of a trade war. The U.S.-China battle could prove to be small beans if Trump makes good on his sometimes-pledge to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement.

And the current trade trend runs counter to the Texas agriculture industry's efforts over many years to open up new markets abroad.

"We keep using our ag exports as a hammer over someone," said Texas Farm Bureau president Russell Boening, a San Antonio-area farmer. "One of these times, they may just walk away because they're tired of being under that hammer."

When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 2, 2018

Trump has boasted that "trade wars are good, and easy to win." His thesis is being put to the test.

The White House last month unveiled steep new tariffs on steel and aluminum, though it has since temporarily exempted most major trading partners except for China and Japan. It has followed up with plans to impose $50 billion in tariffs on a wide range of Chinese goods.

A response from the Chinese was a matter of when, not if. Agriculture was sure to be a focus.

Dream destination

China's massive population and surging middle class has made it a dream export destination for farmers and ranchers. The cattle industry, for instance, last year celebrated it as a huge win when China decided to lift a ban on U.S. beef. Chinese officials are keenly aware of that pressure point.

"This is what it looks like when America begins to be more proactive in protecting American trade and American jobs," Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller said in a written statement. "There's going to be a reaction."

The Republican, a major Trump backer, added that he has trust that the president will "negotiate a great deal for America" and that "my friend" U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue will "stand up for U.S. ag producers as this process continues."

Some Texas farmers and ranchers are hoping for a stand sooner rather than later.

Texas agriculture commissioner Sid Miller, a big supporter of President Donald Trump, said the Chinese tariffs are "what it looks like when America begins to be more proactive in protecting American trade and American jobs." (Andy Jacobsohn / Staff Photographer)

Pecan growth market

A tariff in China or any other U.S. trading partner increases consumer prices in that country, potentially costing American producers business. Among those in Texas hit by China's new levies are pecan growers, who've seen a huge growth market in Asia for the nut of the state tree.

A new 15 percent tariff could cause real pain, given that more than 20 percent of U.S. production goes to China, said Bob Redding, a Washington-based agriculture lobbyist. It would nearly wipe out the hard-fought tariff reductions that the industry has received from China in recent years.

"Is this a setback? Yeah," said Larry Don Womack, president of the Texas Pecan Growers Association. "But hey, it's agriculture. We've been kicked in the teeth before. And we just get up and go again."

Other impacts might be more muted — in Texas, at least.

Take the 25 percent tariff that the Chinese slapped on pork products. About one in four hogs raised in the U.S. ends up exported, said Jim Monroe of the National Pork Producers Council. And mainland China and Hong Kong account for about 10 percent of those exports.

But Texas produces only about 1 percent of America's pork, according to data from the U.S. Agriculture Department.

Or consider the 15 percent levy the Chinese imposed on the grapefruit, including the iconic red grapefruit from Texas' Rio Grande Valley. Dale Murden, president of Texas Citrus Mutual, a trade group, said that "any tariff is going to get your attention."

"But this would be more of a concern for California and Florida," he said, pointing to America's citrus powerhouses. "We ship such an insignificant amount to China."

Worry of future escalation

Boening, the Texas Farm Bureau president, perhaps summed up the situation by saying that these Chinese tariffs "aren't directly going to hurt a lot of Texas producers." But China is Texas' third biggest export market for products of all types, including those of the agricultural variety.

Any future escalations might not be so benign.

A tariff on sorghum would be a direct shot at Texas, especially since the Chinese have already launched a trade probe into those U.S. imports. A levy on U.S. beef would also be a blow, even though efforts to grow that market so far remain fledgling.

And a broader trade war could have serious ripples throughout Texas.

"We worry about what's next," Boening said.