Wisconsin at Ohio State

Betting Line: Ohio State -14.5

Over/Under: 49.5

Wisconsin was the victim of one of the most surprising upsets of the season last week as they lost 24-23 at Illinois. The Badgers collapsed on defense in the fourth quarter and allowed Illinois to kick a field goal as time expired. Wisconsin’s defense will need to stay sharp the entire game this week as Ohio State’s offense is loaded with weapons. Wisconsin does have one of the nation’s top defenses but slowing down Ohio State will be a tough task. I think Wisconsin needs to be aggressive in stopping the run and getting a good pass rush. Ohio State’s JK Dobbins is a very physical back who does not often go down on first contact so the Badgers will need to swarm the ball. Justin Fields has been very prolific both as a passer and as a scrambler, but I still am not totally sure he will handle pressure well. Wisconsin obviously needs to be sure he can not scramble consistently but if they can keep Fields on his toes and force him to think quick, they will be in a good spot. Outside linebackers Zack Baun and Noah Burks will be key players both in rushing the passer and in keeping outside containment. Offensively, Wisconsin is going to need to pound the ball if they want to succeed. Ohio State’s defense is littered with amazing athletes so Wisconsin is not going to win with speed, but they could win with strength and physicality. Wisconsin’s offensive line will need to have good game for this to happen, especially offensive tackles Cole Van Lanen and Logan Bruss as they will be matched up with Ohio State’s standout defensive end Chase Young. Jonathan Taylor ran for 132 yards against Illinois but also had a costly fumble. He will need to be careful with the ball this game and continue to use his elite strength field vision well. Jack Coan will be throwing against an elite secondary and he needs to keep mistakes to a minimum through the air.

Ohio State continued their reign of terror last week with a 52-3 win at Northwestern. Ohio State has four drives where they scored in three or fewer plays and allowed less than three yards play in an all out dominant win. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, this game will be their toughest of the season so far. Ohio State will need to be ready for a punishing Wisconsin defensive front. Their offensive line will need to be in top form and will need to do well blocking at the second level as Wisconsin is loaded at linebacker. JK Dobbins will need to be able to still get yards after contact when running the ball, which is something he typically does well. Justin Fields has had a very strong showing this season at quarterback but this will be the best defense he has faced as a starter. He will need to be able to use his speed to his advantage and react quickly. If Fields is still able to be effective through the air when rolling out, Ohio State should be able to constantly keep Wisconsin on their toes defensively. On defense, Ohio State should plan to stack the box against a run heavy Wisconsin. The Badgers will likely try to gain yards gradually with Jonathan Taylor running behind their strong offensive line, and Ohio State needs to provide some resistance to that. I think cornerbacks Jeffery Okudah and Damon Arnette can handle one on one matchups with Wisconsin’s receivers which will allow them to be a bit more aggressive against the run. If they can prevent big plays and generate some negative plays for Wisconsin, Ohio State will nearly have this game sealed.

Prediction:

Wisconsin fights but Ohio State eventually wins 27-23.

Miami at Pittsburgh

Betting Line: Pittsburgh-5.5

Over/Under: 42.5

Miami was the victim of a pretty surprising loss last week as they lost 28-21 in overtime to Georgia Tech. The Hurricanes were run on a bit by Georgia Tech and also made some key mistakes including allowing a 41 yard touchdown pass on a fake punt (Georgia Tech punter Pressly Harvin might should start at quarterback for them because that throw was an absolute dime). Miami also had to make a decision on who to start at quarterback between N’Kosi Perry and Jarren Williams or even Tate Martell. Both Perry and Williams have had some bad moments and are recovering from injuries, but I think they should have gone with Williams. Head coach Manny Diaz did not take my advice and has decided to go with Perry for this game. Perry played well against Virginia Tech earlier this season but he has struggled since. I also think Williams has had a lot of good moments and he just was very bad against Virginia Tech. Regardless, Miami will need to run the ball well. To do that, they will need solid offensive line play which they have definitely not had very often. If the offensive line holds up, their offense will be in a good spot. Defensively, Miami needs to put their focus into creating turnovers and giving their offense prime opportunities to score. The Hurricanes have slipped a bit in terms of creating turnovers this season, but they need to find ways to set up their offense. As a whole, Miami needs to step up in big moments. Pittsburgh has played in five consecutive one score games and they have won four of them. The Hurricanes can not fall flat and let the moment get too big this game, which is a mistake they have made this season.

Pittsburgh moves up to 5-2 on the season last week with a 27-20 win over Syracuse. Pittsburgh had a very good day defensively as they had nine sacks and 14 tackles for loss. The Panthers were led defensively by safety Damar Hamlin who had eight total tackles, a tackle for loss, and three pass deflections. Pittsburgh will have the benefit of playing against a weaker offensive line so they should be setting up shop in the backfield. If they can get a consistent pass rush and create chaos, it will throw Miami for a loop, especially considering their quarterback play has been faulty at best. On offense, the Panthers also need solid play up front. Miami has a very talented defensive front that can make big plays regularly if the Panthers are not careful. Kenny Pickett has definitely improved at quarterback from last season but is still far from perfect. He will need some help from his receivers. Maurice Ffrench is a speed demon at receiver and if he can cut loose on a route and get a big play, it will swing things totally in Pittsburgh’s favor.

Prediction:

This game has always been weird so predicting this will be tough, but I think Pittsburgh brings home a 20-17 win in a wild game.

Texas at TCU

Betting Line: TCU -1

Over/Under: 57

Texas is coming off what can only be classified as an extremely unconvincing win as they needed a field goal as time expired to beat Kansas 50-48. The Longhorns had an embarrassingly bad day defensively as they let Kansas march down the field on them consistently and were the beneficiary of two missed field goals (one of which was blocked). TCU might not have an elite offense, but they are no slouch. In this game, I think Texas needs to focus on rushing the passer. This is an area where they have struggled this season but I still think they can get pressure. TCU quarterback Max Duggan has potential but has looked shaky for extended periods. If the Longhorns can force him into making quick decisions, they can hopefully force a lot of errors and mask some of their deficiencies at cornerback. Outside linebacker Joseph Ossai will be a key player as he is Texas’s best pass rusher as he leads the team in sacks and tackles for loss. Defensive lineman Ta’Quon Graham will also need to have a good day as a pass rusher. The Longhorns also need to be sound in pass coverage, especially against TCU’s Jalen Reagor who will likely be a first round draft pick in the spring. Reagor can accelerate very quickly and can turn on a dime when changing directions. I think Texas will likely need to shadow over him with a safety in addition to having a cornerback cover him. Reagor is good enough to torch Texas’s defense by himself, but if they can slow him down, they will be in a good spot. On offense, the Longhorns need to do well in run blocking. TCU generates a lot of big plays on defense, and the Longhorns can not let TCU swing the momentum of the game with a sack or tackle for loss. Texas has not had a big play threat at running back, but they have had success in getting solid gains consistently with Keaontay Ingram and Roschon Johnson. If either of them can be reliable for yardage again in this game, it will take some pressure off of Sam Ehlinger at quarterback. Ehlinger had a good day against Kansas, but will be playing a much tougher defense this week. If he can generate plays through the air and on the ground, he will make things a lot tougher for TCU’s defense.

TCU fell short against Kansas State last week and slipped to 3-3 on the season. The Horned Frogs struggled to generate any consistency on the ground and left way too much in the hands of true freshman quarterback Max Duggan. Against Texas, the Horned Frogs need to find another playmaking threat. Jalen Reagor is one of the best receivers in the country and will need to play like it this game. If he can create separation and get open, it will make things much easier for Duggan. If Darius Anderson of Sewo Olonilua can become a threat on the ground, it will force Texas to play balanced on defense and give TCU more options offensively. While Duggan has struggled in the passing game, he has yet to throw an interception. If he can minimize bad plays and keep his streak of not throwing an interception alive, the Horned Frogs should still be able to find success offensively. On defense, TCU will likely need to have a quarterback spy on Texas’s Sam Ehlinger. The likely candidate will be safety Vernon Scott. If they can contain Ehlinger and prevent him from being effective as a scrambler, it will really force Texas’s offense out of using their best weapon. Texas’s offensive line has underperformed in their last couple games, which should give TCU plenty of big play opportunities. The Horned Frogs also need to keep an eye on Texas receiver Collin Johnson. Johnson is just returning to action after missing a lot of the season due to a hamstring injury. Whoever comes out on top in his matchup with cornerback Jeff Gladney will be a tremendous help for their side.

Prediction:

Texas gets to exhale a bit and wins 27-23.

Penn State at Michigan State

Betting Line: Michigan State +5.5

Over/Under: 43.5

Penn State remained undefeated with a win over Michigan last week but they definitely had to break a sweat. The Nittany Lions jumped out to a 21-0 but let Michigan back into the game and where a drop on the goal line away from going to overtime without any momentum. One big thing that came out of this game was that Penn State did not have their typically great pass rush. Thankfully for the Nittany Lions, they will be playing against a much worse offensive line. Penn State will have a prime opportunity to create havoc when defending the pass. Michigan State’s offense is not the best, but they do have a very good receiver in Darrell Stewart. If Penn State can do well in coverage against Stewart, they will really put Michigan State in a tight spot. On offense. Penn State will be playing against a very good defensive front. The Nittany Lions struggled to get the ground game going against Michigan, and will be playing against a defensive front on par with Michigan’s. The offensive line will need to do well in run blocking and the backfield will need to find and hit the home quickly. Noah Cain is the lead back for Penn State, but Ricky Slade and Journey Brown also will expect to get carries. If any omg the three can establish themselves as a threat, they can force Michigan State’s defense to play balanced. Quarterback Sean Clifford struggled a bit in terms of accuracy against Michigan, and will need to do a lot of heavy lifting as Penn State will likely have to rely on their passing game.

Michigan had a much needed bye week last week. The Spartans definitely needed the time to rethink some of their strategies after being on the receiving end of two straight big losses. In their most recent game against Wisconsin, the Spartans averaged less than three yards per play. Quarterback Brian Lewerke was benched in the second half against Wisconsin (a decision I disagreed with) but it looks as though he will get the start this week. Lewerke will need to be able to get rid of the ball quickly against a very good Penn State defensive front. I think the biggest and most important task for Michigan State’s offense will be to hold off Penn State’s pass rush. The Spartans have struggled quite a bit on the offensive line, and they can not get run over by Penn State. If Michigan State wants to win this game, they can not let Penn State get sacks and tackles for loss at will. Darrell Stewart is Michigan State’s biggest threat at receiver and he will need to find a way to get open quickly or be able to catch contested passes. On defense, I think the Spartans need to focus on being sound in coverage. Michigan State’s defensive linemen is good enough to hold their own and slow down Penn State’s inconsistent run game. If they can contain Penn State receiver KJ Hamler and keep tight end Oat Freiermuth from being a security blanket, they will be in a good spot.

Prediction:

Michigan State makes it three straight wins in a row over Penn State as they ugly it up and win 17-16.

Auburn at LSU

Betting Line: LSU -10.5

Over/Under: 59

Auburn had a pretty dominant win over Arkansas last week, but their competition is about to step up. The Tigers allowed less than than five yards per pass, but will now have to play against what is arguably the country’s best passing attack. Auburn will need to be sound in coverage against LSU’s loaded receiving corps. With a focus on pass coverage, Auburn’s defensive front will need to get resistance on LSU’s offensive line. While Auburn has a great defensive front, many other teams with good defensive fronts have struggled to get a pass rush. While I think LSU’s Joe Burrow is an elite quarterback, it is unknown how he can handle being pressured. If Marlon Davidson, KJ Britt, and Derrick Brown can get into the backfield, Auburn will give themselves a much better chance of slowing down LSU‘a passing game. On offense, Auburn will need a good game from running backs Kam Martin and Shaun Shivers. LSU has a very talented secondary and I doubt Auburn will want to test them too much. This puts a lot of weight on their offensive line and backfield. Auburn’s receivers also need to find a way to get separation. Auburn will need to try and put as little pressure on true freshman quarterback Bo Nix. While I do not think Nix is a bad quarterback, it can be hard to trust a true freshman in a big game like this.

LSU stayed undefeated last week with a 36-13 win over Mississippi State. LSU will be facing what is likely the best defense on their schedule so far. LSU’s offensive line looks to be very good, but they will be going against what might be the best defensive line in the country. If they can give Joe Burrow time to throw, their offense will be in a great spot. It will also be very beneficial for the Tigers to get the run game going. Clyde Edwards-Helaire struggled a bit against Mississippi State but has had some big games. If he can get going, it will take some pressure off of Burrow. I expect Burrow and the passing game to do well, but it should be said that they should and it will be tough for LSU to lose if the passing game does well. Defensively, the Tigers will need to do well against the run. Auburn will look to establish their ground game and if LSU can stifle that, it will put Auburn in a very tough spot. The Tigers need to stay sharp in the secondary as they have struggled a bit against better teams. Kristian Fulton and Derek Stingley can not have any lapses.

Prediction:

LSU keeps their undefeated season alive with a 38-24 win.

Notre Dame at Michigan

Betting Line: Michigan +1

Over/Under: 51.5

Notre Dame has last week off, and this game starts a streak of six straight weeks with games. On offense, the Fighting Irish will likely have to rely on the passing game a bit more as Michigan does very well against the run and because running back Jafar Armstrong is nursing an injury. This means that Ian Book will need to be very accurate with the ball. This also means that Chase Claypool and Cole Kmet need to be able to make contested catches which they have typically have been good at. Notre Dame also needs to do well in pass protection, which they typically have. Defensively, Notre Dame needs to do well against the run. The Fighting Irish were not very good against the run and that was before Daelin Hayes went down with a shoulder injury. If Notre Dame can prevent Michigan from consistently running on them, they will take away Michigan’s offensive game plan. Michigan also is a pretty turnover happy team, and it could do Notre Dame some good to try and create turnovers.

Michigan fell short against Penn State last week, but I still think they played pretty well. It would have been pretty easy for them to fold when they were down 21-0 in the second half but they pulled a mini comeback before ultimately losing 28-21. The Wolverines were able to run the ball a bit against a pretty good run defense. Luckily for Michigan, Notre Dame is not nearly as good as Penn State when it comes to run defense. Zach Charbonnet does not look like a big play back, but I think he could lead Michigan’s offense in a march down the field. If Michigan can be successful on the ground, it will make life much easier for their offense. Shea Patterson did a bit better at quarterback against Penn State, but he needs to minimize turnovers. Patterson has had a problem taking care of the ball and can not continue to turn the ball over Michigan is going to win this game. On defense, Michigan should focus on pass coverage. The Wolverines will need to especially be sound in coverage at or near the line of scrimmage as Notre Dame often uses the short passing game. Michigan also should try to get a good pass rush. Aidan Hutchinson, Kwity Paye, and Josh Uche are all playmakers in the defensive front and if they can get in the backfield often, Michigan will be set up well.

Prediction:

Michigan gets revenge from their loss last season and wins 27-21.

To be notified when I post, follow my Instagram @impassionedsportsnerd. Last week, I was 4-2 against the spread. I am 29-22-2 against the spread this season.

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