Flint L. McColgan, and Ed Mahon

York Daily Record

Donald Trump, the billionaire real estate tycoon, continues to out-pace his opponents to capture the Republican nomination for president, but some observers don't think he'll capture the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination outright.

The likelihood of a contested Republican Party convention in July is "certainly greater" than it has ever been during the campaign, said Charlie Gerow, a Republican strategist and CEO of Harrisburg-based Quantum Communications.

He has a "sneaking suspicion" that likelihood will only increase, Gerow said.

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"The likelihood of someone getting a majority of the delegates at this point isn't very high," he said.



He said Trump would need about 53 percent more of the remaining delegate count to secure the nomination, and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas would need about 82 percent of the remaining delegates. He said he doesn't think Ohio Gov. John Kasich can mathematically get enough delegates by the convention.

Awarding delegates

If no candidate wins the majority of the delegates — that 1,237 number — ahead of the convention in Cleveland, then the nominee will be chosen through multiple rounds of delegate voting.

And states decide how their delegates are awarded, according to the Republican National Committee website.

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In Pennsylvania, some delegates will be pledged to support the candidate chosen by commonwealth voters, according to Megan Sweeney, the state party's communications director. That is different from previous years, when each delegate could choose who to vote for. The rules in Pennsylvania changed in September, when the Republican Party of Pennsylvania switched its methods to comply with the national party's rules.

Look who's on the York County ballot

Pennsylvania voters will select three delegates from each of the 18 congressional districts. Those 54 delegates will be able to vote for whomever they want at the Republican National Convention.

The remaining 17 delegates are party insiders who automatically go to the convention. Three are national party members and 14 are other special party members. They would be pledged, on the first ballot, to support whichever candidate captured the most support by Pennsylvania voters.

If there is no nominee after the first round of voting, then they, too, can vote for whomever they want.

Picking delegates

There will be 15 candidates on the ballot to be one of three delegates from the 4th Congressional district. The district is made up of York and Adams counties, a portion of southeastern Cumberland County and the Harrisburg metro area in Dauphin County.

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Some of the delegate candidates explained their philosophies on how they will vote if elected to the convention:

Alex Shorb, the chairman of the York County Republican Committee: In his official capacity, he does not endorse or openly support specific Republican candidates until a nominee is chosen. He will vote, he said, in order of importance, in this way: How York County and Pennsylvania voted, how close the leading candidate is to capturing the convention, a favorable result for the party and down-ballot candidates, not splitting the vote at the chance of a third party candidate and a belief that the nominee should be someone who ran for the office this cycle.

Charlie Gerow: He isn’t saying who he plans to support at the convention, if it’s contested. Gerow said he plans to consider how people in the district and across the state vote in the primary. But he said he’s going to use his best judgement and select a candidate “who is most likely to defeat Hillary Clinton” and “who is best suited to continue the policies of Ronald Reagan.”

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Stan Saylor, state representative from Windsor Township: He said he's leaning toward U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas over Trump, but he hasn’t made up his mind who he will support as a delegate. He said he planned to look at the primary results in York County and the rest of the 4th Congressional District, as well as who has the best chance of beating the Democratic nominee in November.

Joe Sacco: The 73-year-old Shrewsbury man said he’s volunteered for the local GOP for decades, although he disagreed with local party leaders when they opposed Republican Scott Wagner’s ultimately successful write-in campaign for state senator in 2014. Sacco, who said he previously worked in law enforcement and is now an independent insurance auditor, said he reached out to the Trump campaign for ways he could get involved and he was asked to run for delegate. "He’s finally saying things that we want to hear, that everybody’s been holding back on," Sacco said of Trump. "And he’s an outsider."

Marilyn Gillispie: A member of the Republican State Committee for Pennsylvania, Gillispie is the former president of a York County pro-life group, and she was a founding member the York County chapter of ACTION of PA, a Christian political group. She previously supported Ben Carson but now backs Cruz. She doesn’t consider Trump a true Republican. “Nothing will change the fact that I do not want Donald Trump to be the nominee. I don’t know how all this will work out,” Gillispie said. “But he is not someone I want to support.”

Why did York County voters switch parties?

Republican delegate candidates:

Greg Rothman, of Silver Spring Township, Cumberland County

Charlie Gerow, Hampden Township, Cumberland County

Marilyn S. Gillispie, of Springfield Township

G. Edwin Matthias, Hampden Township, Cumberland County

Betsy Hower, of Huntington Township, Adams County

Stan Saylor, Windsor Township

Alexander Shorb, York

Ana Puig, Lower Allen Township, Cumberland County

Scott Burford, Springettsbury Township

Matthew Jansen, North Codorus Township

Andrew Ritter Jr., Lower Allen Township, Cumberland County

Amy Sarah Brennan, of Lower Allen Township, Cumberland County

Tim Barker, Springettsbury Township

Marc A. Scaringi, Camp Hill, Cumberland County

Joe Sacco, Shrewsbury

Source: Pennsylvania Department of State