Launching of the report of the Census Data Analysis Project the other day, reminded one of many a task, which despite its importance for the nation, is not recognized as such by vast majority of the people. Census of population is one such undertaking. Once it has been conducted in the field, everybody except some technocrats and users of its data, for­get about it, not realizing that the statistics generated by this operation will affect their lives for the next ten years through policies and plans using the census figures. A country with a population of 150 million produces such a tremendous amount of data during the census, that it can keep a battalion of research workers busy in processing, analysing and re­porting for the decade to come.

We, in Pakistan, could not utilize all the data produced by all the five on a continuous basis. Temporary staff was re­cruited to count population during a fixed period. Equally, non-permanent personnel were engaged to carry out data entry. Even the staff that analysed the data and wrote reports did not know about their future. Once the operation was over and broad results became available, the bulk of the staff was disposed off, leaving behind only a skeleton strength of permanent employees. The practice, apparently, is universal: ac­tually, it varies.

The permanent census staffs in other coun­tries are much larger which does not allow any slackness in research and analysis after the departure of temporary staff. Pakistan experiences a slack period until preparations for the next census begin, reducing research and analysis to a trickle. This tendency is illustrated by the fact that even a most desirable post-census evaluation survey to assess cov­erage of the census and detect any errors could not be car­ried out after the 1998 census. It was only one out of many pitfalls of a census. They can happen anywhere, if census is not given the place that it commands. The census of popula­tion in British India aimed at compiling a complete economic, geographical, political, production, and land-use profile of British territories.

Although much of this system was inher­ited from the Suri, Mughal and earlier kingdoms, yet the British perfected it. Census of population was an important component of the British information scheme. Yet, problems did occur at times, e.g. in 1931 and 1941 due to bitter rivalry between the Hindu and Muslim populations. But quick cor­rections were prompted by frequent use of census figures by the government.

Pakistan inherited from the British, the tradition of hold­ing a census every ten years. The census of 1951, as such, was held on time despite highly unsettled conditions com­pounded by arrival of around seven million refugees within a few months.

But the 1961 Census saw tempering like the 1941 Census. This time, the tussle was between East and West Pakistan lobbies, instead of Hindus and Muslims. As a result, there was estimated five to seven percent under enu­meration in West Pakistan. This tendency took root and the census, once considered almost sacred, fell prey to ethnic, parochial and dirty local politics. The East versus West Pakistan competition, however, disappeared with the emergence of Bangladesh. But it was succeeded by provincial, linguistic and political prejudices.

The 1971 census could only be held in 1972 due to the separation struggle in erstwhile East Pak­istan. But it was held to be comparatively fair because it was conducted in a society stunned by the shock of East Pakistan debacle.

The 1981 census had to face the brunt of well organized lobbies in favour and against other regions, commu­nities and political parties. Technically, this census is recog­nized as superior to earlier exercises. However, the-results had some big surprises in certain areas of Sindh and Balochistan: Their population came out to be much higher than could be justified. This started right from the housing census. There was clearly a political hand in these distortions. This census, however, was instrumental in bringing into open the miserable condition of education, especially that of women. There were other candid statistics. However, the mischief committeed at enumeration in the field intensified the struggle for numerical superiority.

Census, which was due in 1991, was postponed again and again. The 1990s saw four governments of two main parties. Each of them claimed to have greater following in some constituency. They were afraid that the census held by a gov­ernment of the rival party would manoeuvre to depress popu­lation figures in their areas of influence. The census thus was held in 1998. But what happened during the seven years of postponement was so irresponsible and bizarre that one would prefer not to discuss it. Only one episode will suffice: On this particular occasion, the big count was due next morning when suddenly the government decided to stop it. Next day, instead of the big count, there was an announcement that the census operations had been postponed due to ‘inclement weather’: While according to many a source there was not even a speck of cloud anywhere in Pakistan! This incident speaks volumes about how the nation of ours has ruined its institutions and thrown the sanctity of tasks of national importance to dogs.

The census was, finally, held in 1998, after a delay of seven years and a gap of 17 years. However, the important step of post-census survey was missed mak­ing it difficult to assess the accuracy of results. This short­coming was belatedly met through launching of a census data analysis project, by combining resources of two United Na­tions bodies (UNFPA and UNSD), and two Pakistani agencies (PIDE and PCO). Coordination was assigned to a former joint director and economic demographer, Dr Mohammad Irfan, under the overall supervision Dr A R Kamal, Director PIDE. The work was distributed among a team of 18 senior so­cial scientists-cum-demographers. A technical committee over saw progress of the project. These arrangements have been described in detail to give an idea of the work involved in cov­ering only one step of census operations. One can well imag­ine the requirements of a high calibre permanent organization! One could not go through the entire report due to time constraint, yet some conclusions can be drawn.

Feeny and Alma, two eminent demographer team members, in their paper, are of the opinion that the 1998 population was under­-enumerated; though supervision and controls were good, due to the presence of military personnel during fieldwork. Inac­curacies, thus, could have been introduced at the data-entry and data processing stages. Illegibility of numerous enumera­tion forms received over long distances and stored in bulk was one of the major problems. Unfortunately, the forms were dis­posed off rather early so no checking could be done for er­rors.

There are reports that at least 92 percent of filled ques­tionnaires had at least one blank entry. Had the original forms been retained, these errors could have been detected before the final tabulations. Although equipped only with a browsing of the summaries, yet one would not hesitate to venture to list measures, which could assure regular and re­liable decennial censuses in future.

First: The census objec­tives should again be re-oriented to the real goals of a cen­sus. It should unfold a complete picture of population and its environs for purposes of policy making. The census should be unburdened of its role, determining the share of provinces in the NFC awards, as far as possible.

Second: There should be permanent autonomous census organization to conduct the decennial census. It should also undertake research stud­ies on a continuous basis. It should be component of an information gathering network, engaged in population research, in the light of developments in related fields, in collection with other research organizations.

Third: Census Organization should have highly qualified staff at all levels. It should be headed by a professional population scholar and re­searcher committed to the job on permanent basis. Quality of even the enumerators should be assured.

Fourth: Processing of data should be made efficient and foolproof by stringent training, approoriate salaries and proper work plans. Raw data should be retained for a reasonable period of time for re-checking and

Fifth: Data evaluation funtion should be built in the budget so that it is not missed.

December 25, 2003

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Tags: Census in Pakistan, Population Control