Two years ago I wrote the neoliberal case for Jeremy Corbyn. Two years is the approximate latency time between believing something ironically and believing it sincerely, so here we are. I won’t go so far as to endorse a Corbyn government, I need to hold something back for next year’s general election. Nevertheless here is my case for why I, a filthy neoliberal, will be voting anti-tory next week.

Noted twitter troll Nicholas Nassim Taleb coined the term Antifragility in his 2012 book of the same name. I haven't read any books since I left school, but the general idea is that of systems that gain from disorder. The more flack they take, the stronger they become. Failure begets success. I believe the conservative party is antifragile, and this is supremely dangerous.

The last decade of conservative government has been one disaster before the next. Our status on the national stage has greatly diminished and our state capacity was whittled away in austerity for the sake of a political stick to beat the opposition. When they got bored of this they dragged us into their own oedipal psychodrama and the country out of the EU. They then spent the next three years arguing among themselves with no leadership and no governance. They have the nerve to campaign on 'bored of brexit pass the deal’, reaping rewards for failing to clean up a mess they invented for no good reason. And there is no electoral consequence for this. In 2017 they increased their share of the vote, and now they will increase their parliamentary presence due to our mad electoral system.

The core goals of the conservative party as currently constituted are increasing the share of societal wealth held by the elderly, and owning the libs. They're the political wing of the over 60s. This is an electorally efficient strategy, and one likely to lead to a majority. This isn't easily plotted on a simple political compass, it's not a swing to the left in any conventional sense, but it's a coherent philosophy for government, Orbanism with British characteristics. Economic growth just isn't very important. Baby Boomers are leaving the workforce, and their future prosperity will owe far more to property wealth and pensions than any economic growth. The pensions triple lock negates their stake in this. It ensures every year of lost growth is just redistribution to the retired. Growth limiting policies such as brexit therefore don't matter, and can be sacrificed for culture war issues like limiting immigration. Similarly for housing, it is not in the interests of the conservative party to increase supply and reduce prices, allowing younger generations some sort of stake in society. This would make their older home owning voter base worse off. I worry increasing economic hardship as we slip behind the western world will lead to voters increasingly turning inwards and voting for the leaders responsible. The UK will over time come to resemble the Dutch dementia village, comfortably shielding the baby boomers from the consequences of their votes. Goodbye Lennon! if you will. Failure for the country to progress is a victory that will drive more elderly voters to the Tory party. It is an antifragile strategy.

Boris Johnson himself inhabits this role perfectly. Every failure and scandal bounces off him and plays into his own personal popularity. His term as foreign secretary was a failure on every level as the UK retreated to the status of international laughing stock, but only served to shore up his reputation among Tory members as guardian of brexit. His lies serve to discredit not himself, but the entire political system, and voters simply give up on evaluating claims at all and so vote for base class and identity interests.

Johnson's own personal life is indicative of a man with no moral compass. He entered politics so he could fuck younger women in the office with impunity, nobody knows how many illegitimate children he has. But this just makes him top bantz, a bit of a laugh. 'Cancel culture' is an essential mechanism of political accountability. His past remarks about women, BAME and LGBT people would have cancelled a lesser politician, but not Boris, it just feeds his aesthetic. He is antifragile.

The press is uniquely poor at holding the conservatives to account. Take the leaders interviews for example. Jeremy Corbyn was deservedly eviscerated by Andrew Neil. Boris Johnson refuses to follow suit, and there are no consequences to this. Initially the BBC withholds his cosy fireside chat with Andrew Marr, but backs down at the slightest sign of a news story after the London Bridge terror attacks. We all want to believe that politicians escaping scrutiny will be punished, but the lesson of the past few years is that this isn't true, you can do anything you want and the eternal quest for balance will save you.

Jeremy Corbyn will be a dreadful prime minister. He is an apologist for anti-Semitism and a deeply stupid man. His policies will make us all poorer. His leadership of the labour party is a disaster, and appropriately treated so by the general public. Everyone hates him already, which is great. A government led by him will be a disgrace but it will crash and burn when it fails. The Tories might not. Better we fuck the country up in a random walk than in any direction for too long.