I have been corresponding with a working group regarding the covid-19 situation in Japan. They shared a draft of their white paper with me while attempting to circulate their revisionist conclusions in policy circles.

The speed premium is indeed increasing quickly. The white paper has not materially changed since when I first saw it. Since then, the Olympics were postponed and experts in Japan have described the outbreak as “rampant.” The working group feels that society needs to prepare, and that this outweighs the desire to wait for additional official confirmation.

The authors are an international team based in Tokyo. They cannot attach their identities to the white paper at present. They are not medical researchers. They have reviewed their conclusions with a medical researcher and others. You can weigh the evidence of their claims.

Here is the document (no, it is not malware), and here is the opening bit:

The governmental and media consensus is that Japan is weathering covid-19 well. This consensus is wrong. Japan’s true count of covid-19 cases is understated. It may be understated by a factor of 5X or more. Japan is likely seeing transmission rates similar to that experienced in peer nations, not the rates implied by the published infection counts. The cluster containment strategy has already failed. Japan is not presently materially intervening at a social level. Accordingly, Japan will face a national-scale public health crisis within a month, absent immediate and aggressive policy interventions.

There is a great deal of further detail, including the numbers, at the link. Sobering.