It's one of the nastier statewide races in Michigan

Paul Egan | Detroit Free Press

Paul Egan, Detroit Free Press

Detroit Free Press

LANSING —The Democratic leads over Republicans in the Michigan races for governor and secretary of state have shrunk to 5 and 4 points respectively, and the attorney general's race is now a dead heat, according to a new poll commissioned by the Free Press and its media partners.

Even in the U.S. Senate race, where the Democratic incumbent, U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, has been widely expected to enjoy a double-digit victory over Republican challenger John James, her lead is down to 7 points, the poll found. Stabenow led James by 23 points in a September poll by the same firm, EPIC-MRA of Lansing.

A significant factor in the tightening race over the past month is an uptick in the approval rating of Republican President Donald Trump and a narrowing of the voter enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats, the poll suggests.

Dynamics can change between now and Election Day on Nov. 6, but based on the latest numbers, “if it’s a Blue Wave, it’s not going to be a very big wave,” EPIC-MRA President Bernie Porn said Wednesday.

The EPIC-MRA poll is at odds with other polls that have shown a larger lead for gubernatorial candidate Gretchen Whitmer and other Democrats, including one released Monday by the Lansing-based Republican consulting firm MRG. That poll showed Whitmer leading Republican Bill Schuette by 14 points and Stabenow leading James by 16 points.

The Free Press poll of 600 likely voters was conducted by live interviewers between Oct. 18 and Tuesday, prior to the second and final gubernatorial debate held in Detroit Wednesday night. Of those sampled, 30 percent were cell phone users. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The governor's race

Whitmer, the former Senate minority leader from East Lansing, would get 46 percent of the vote if the election were held today, while Schuette, the attorney general from Midland, would get 41 percent, according to the poll. Another 5 percent said they would vote for someone else and 7 percent were undecided or refused to say.

Whitmer had an 8-point lead over Schuette, 45-37, in EPIC-MRA's September poll, when 11 percent were undecided or refused to say how they would vote.

Porn attributed the tightening in the governor's race to TV ads that have attacked Whitmer as someone who will hike taxes, as well as improved numbers for Trump, who has endorsed Schuette.

Whitmer and Schuette: A brief look at Michigan's candidates for governor

Of those surveyed, 43 percent had a favorable opinion of Trump, up from 40 percent in September. And 53 percent had an unfavorable opinion, down from 55 percent.

The percentage of voters saying they are 100 percent motivated to vote increased from 59 percent to 71 percent in the past month, but the Democratic edge among those voters shrunk from 10 points to 4 points, Porn said.

Women, however, still hold a 10-point edge over men in terms of voter motivation — a factor that should help Whitmer.

Schuette and groups supporting him have hammered Whitmer with TV ads comparing her to former Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm and alleging Whitmer will hike taxes to address road problems but show little in the way of results. Those ads have had an effect, Porn said.

Schuette has now drawn about even with Whitmer on the all-important issue of fixing Michigan's roads and infrastructure — which was rated the No. 1 issue by the greatest number of respondents in both the latest poll and the September poll.

A 2016 task force commissioned by Gov. Rick Snyder estimated Michigan needs an extra $4 billion a year spent on its infrastructure, with about $1.6 billion to $2.2 billion of that amount needed for roads and bridges.

Both Schuette and Whitmer have promised to make fixing the roads a priority.

Schuette has pledged to fix the roads without raising taxes, but hasn't specified how much additional spending on roads he thinks is needed or where that money would come from.

Whitmer said she will ask the Legislature for unspecified increases in gas taxes or other user fees. If the Legislature does not act, she would ask voters to approve a bond issue so the state could spend an extra $3 billion annually on roads, bridges and other infrastructure needs. She says Michigan's bad roads are already costing drivers hundreds of dollars a year in extra car repair costs.

In the latest poll, of those who ranked roads as the No. 1 issue, 44 percent said they would vote for Whitmer and 43 percent for Schuette. In September, Whitmer held a 47-33 lead over Schuette with that group.

The ads have also apparently hurt Whitmer's favorability ratings. Of those surveyed, 39 percent had a favorable opinion of Whitmer, while 32 percent had an unfavorable opinion. Those numbers were 40-26 in September.

Schuette's favorable and unfavorable numbers both increased in the past month. In the latest poll, 34 percent said they had a favorable opinion of Schuette and 43 percent said they had an unfavorable one. In September, Schuette's favorable-unfavorable numbers were 32-38.

Despite the tightening numbers, Whitmer maintains significant leads in Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties that Porn said should be difficult for Schuette to overcome.

Whitmer leads Schuette 57 percent to 27 percent in Wayne County; 53 percent to 37 percent in Oakland County, and 46 percent to 40 percent in Macomb County, the poll found. In the rest of the state, Schuette leads Whitmer 46 percent to 42 percent.

Statewide, Whitmer leads Schuette 34 percent to 25 percent among Independent voters, the poll found. In September, Whitmer led Schuette among independents, 33-22.

Of those surveyed, 45 percent self-identified as Democrats, 41 percent as Republicans, and 11 percent as independents.

Race for attorney general and secretary of state

In the race for attorney general, the poll showed both candidates having name recognition problems, with about 73 percent of those surveyed not knowing who they are. The poll showed Republican Tom Leonard and Democrat Dana Nessel tied, with 39 percent support each. Another 9 percent said they would vote for someone else, and 13 percent were undecided or refused to say how they would vote.

In the September poll, Nessel led Leonard, 38-32, with 19 percent undecided.

Porn said TV ads attacking Nessel also appear to have had an effect.

In the race for secretary of state, Democrat Jocelyn Benson has 40 percent support, compared with 36 percent support for Republican Mary Treder Lang, with 17 percent undecided or refusing to say, the poll found. Benson led Treder Lang, 40-31, in September, when 19 percent were undecided.

Of those surveyed, 72 percent did not recognize Benson's name, and 75 percent did not recognize Treder Lang's.

Race for the U.S. Senate

The poll's most shocking numbers might be those for the U.S. Senate race, in which Stabenow is seeking a fourth term after beating both of her last two challengers by double digits.

The poll shows Stabenow leading James, a relatively unknown businessman and former U.S. Army pilot from Farmington Hills, 49 percent to 42 percent. In the September poll, Stabenow led James 56 percent to 33 percent.

Porn said TV ads aired by James and groups supporting him again appear to be having an effect, with those saying they have an unfavorable impression of Stabenow increasing from 31 percent in September to 39 percent in October.

National polling has shown that while many close congressional races affecting control of the U.S. House continue to look favorable for Democrats, many U.S. Senate races have shifted in favor of Trump and the Republicans, Porn noted.

While the Stabenow-James numbers are at odds with many other published polls, Stabenow's campaign appeared to show concern about a potential James surge in a fund-raising email sent to supporters on Tuesday.

The email, titled "They're outraising us," and signed by Stabenow, noted that the James campaign announced it had raised $2 million in the first 17 days of October.

"After months of sitting on the sidelines, right-wing activists like the DeVos family are swooping in to try and turn the momentum," the email said in reference to the west Michigan family of Betsy DeVos, Trump's education secretary, and her husband Dick, a former Republican gubernatorial candidate and GOP mega-donor. "They’ll stop at nothing to replace me with another rubber stamp" for Trump.

"We’ve worked too hard to let them buy this race at the last minute," Stabenow said in the email.

John Sellek, a spokesman for Schuette, said Michigan has a history of elections tightening shortly before Election Day. He cited former Gov. John Engler's come-from-behind victory over Democrat Jim Blanchard in 1990 and Trump's Michigan victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016.

"Bill Schuette's plan has been to do just that in 2018," Sellek said.

Zack Pohl, a spokesman for Whitmer, said "every single poll this year has had Bill Schuette losing this race, and that remains true today." Pohl said Whitmer and her campaign team are "going to keep our foot on the gas every second until the polls close."