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The days of 1000 a week crossing the border to live Queensland may be over – for now – but the state still has its problems dealing with population growth. The state's population is expected to double from just over 3 million to about 7 million by 2050, according to Centre for Population Research at the University of Queensland director Martin Bell. "Our offspring are going to be living in a southeast Queensland that has probably twice as many dwellings that it has now," the senior researcher said. "Now, I just want you to picture that flying in from the south-eastern states. You come up the coast, you cross the Tweed and you look on those snaking old Brisbane suburbs. "Well there is going to be twice as many lights as there are now." Back in 2010, the debate at times became ridiculous – suggestions of fences at borders, refusing to let migrants to cross the state border at the Tweed – but it eventually opened the door to strategic planning. The Centre for Population Research provided basic data to the former Labor government as it set in place a series of plans to tackle Queensland's population growth in 2009 and 2010. In 2010, Queensland was struggling with the impact of 2.9 per cent population growth in the 12 months to July 2009 and had 50,000 a year making Queensland their new home. A two-day Growth Management Summit was held in March 2010 and, by May 2010, then-premier Anna Bligh announced three new satellite cities would be built in southeast Queensland. "The Bligh plan really came out a time when population growth in Queensland was really at an all-time peak," Professor Bell said. "It coincided with a situation in which immigration into Australia was roughly three times its normal level. "It was touching 300,00 a year and growth into the state and particularly the southeast corner was pretty high." Professor Bell said while Queensland's population growth had slowed, it goes in six- to seven-year cycles. Queensland, he said, was now at the dip of the cycle. "It has slowed down, but we have to put this in perspective," Professor Bell said. "Southeast Queensland is still one of the most rapidly growing parts of the developed world. "We now have growth rates up around 2 per cent per annum. "Even though internal migration is at a relatively low level at the moment, we know that population growth tends to go in six- or seven-year cycles. "It may not climb to 50,000 a year, which was the famous 1000 persons a week, but it really will climb again." All the attributes the state had in 2009 and 2010 were still in Queensland, Professor Bell said, although the economic and social drivers had changed. "What we know is that we will get this cyclical shift out of the southeastern states into Queensland," he said. Professor Bell points to recent federal government announcements about setting high immigration targets and said it was a mistake for planning to be in low gear. "It is a real mistake to be planning on the last six months of data," he said. "You have to got to think about what are the big driving forces here. "My sense of it is that all of the signals for Queensland is that Queensland will build to rapid population growth." Finding space This week, there was a low-key announcement from Ipswich, where work started on one of the three "satellite cities" Ms Bligh heralded in 2010. Japanese home builder Sekisui House would begin the master planning of a 194 hectare area of bushland in Ipswich's Ripley Valley. Ripley Valley will become the master-planned Ecco Ripley community. Professor Bell said planners agreed these developments are still necessary. "Absolutely because this sort of planned growth to deal with the expansion of Brisbane in a coherent, planned and co-ordinated matter, seems to me to be an intrinsic and important role of government," he said. Different governments had different styles, he said, but both sides of politics must keep their eye on the population growth targets. "While we might see variations in the way that is played out under different political colours, nevertheless that form of long form, large scale planning is imperative to the sustainable development of this part of the world," Professor Bell said. A recent study by the Local Government Association of Queensland shows local councils have largely kept pace in providing the raw blocks of land, but economic conditions have stalled them being turned into house blocks. The LGAQ's Review of Land Supply and Demand in South East Queensland last month says there is a problem. Overall, it says approvals for new blocks of land have slowed to a point where councils are only just meeting the targets set in the South East Queensland Regional Plan. "Detached lot registrations have dropped from a high of 17,478 in the year ending March 2004, to 8513 lots in 2012," the study shows. "This is now well below the average annual detached dwelling forecast of 15,000 per year in the SEQ Regional Plan, but is a reflection of the market conditions in SEQ." House and land packages have dropped to one-third of peak levels in 2008, it says. "There were only 7001 land sales (including house and land packages) in the year to March 2012," the study said. "This was down from 9160 in 2011, and even further down from 15,152 in the 2010 year. "This contrasts with highs of around 20,000 in 2008." Overall, on average over the 2004 to 2012 period, some 16,232 detached houses and 9,773 other dwellings have been approved annually in SEQ. LGAQ chief executive Greg Hallam said the figures showed councils were approving the land, but developers needed the economic conditions to improve to turn them to house lots. "Councils have to put up with silly property industry 'report cards' on their performance when the reality is that the key to a property industry recovery is an upturn in economic conditions to get people buying houses again," Mr Hallam said in a statement. Work starts at Ripley Valley Southeast Queensland is in the midst of its own cycle of master planned communities. First there was Forest Lake, back in 1991, as Brisbane's western corridor began to grow. In 1992, Maha Sinnathamby began Springfield, further west and closer to Ipswich. This week, Ipswich mayor Paul Pisasale and Sekisui House turned the first sod at the Ecco Ripley community. "Today marks the start of a new era in master-planned development in Australia and we are excited by the smart and sustainable vision for Ecco Ripley by Sekisui House," Cr Pisasale said on Wednesday. The council and the housing company are projecting a population of 120,000 people in 50,000 dwellings. The project will start modestly with 250 dwellings in the very first stage, which will begin in late 2013, on a section of land not far from the Centenary Highway. Sekisui House's Australian business started in 2009 and it now has four master-planned developments in New South Wales and Queensland. The company builds pre-ordered "flat-pack" style homes, which are designed by the home owners. The components are built in Sydney. So very slowly it appears development is beginning at the three satellite city sites that were born in 2010. At Yarrabilba, near Logan, developer Lend Lease received approval for development of a 93.2 hectare residential and mixed-use site, a spokesman for the developer said. "Earthworks have commenced on a precinct within the site under the interim land use plan for 542 lots," a spokesman for deputy premier Jeff Seeney said. At Greater Flagstone, also near Logan, five small developments have won approval and are under way. A residential development for 126 residential lots has approval, while two other developments put forward by Tre Developments and Undullah Property Investments will start soon. "Development has not yet commenced," Mr Seeney's spokesman said. "The timing and delivery of development is up to the developers." The global financial crisis has contributed to the slow start to residential development, with Queensland's population growth halving since July 2009, the government said. A spokesman for Treasurer Tim Nicholls said: "Population growth is estimated to be 1¾ per cent per annum in (financial years) 2012-13 and 2013-14, before strengthening somewhat to 2 per cent per annum in 2014-15 and 2015-16. "However, this growth remains below the peak of 2.9 per cent recorded in 2008-09."

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