“Yay, this might be the third film sequel we actually deserve!” So exclaimed one girlfriend of mine on hearing that Cynthia Nixon, the actress best known for her role as Miranda Hobbes in the TV sitcom Sex and the City, had announced her candidacy for New York governor.

That’s one reaction though it was more of a commentary on the mediocrity of the two big-screen versions of the show to which we’ve already been subjected than a serious assessment of whether a run by Nixon in the Democratic gubernatorial primary might be a good idea.

Which it isn’t. It made my heart sink, which may be unfair on Nixon. Although I am in Manhattan right now, I spend quite a lot of my time in upstate New York and I am pretty sure that were I there now all I would hear would be groans of contempt. Miranda? Really?

First, the good stuff. Or potentially good. Nixon is not just an actress. As some of us are discovering, she has been preparing for this moment since 2013 when she campaigned for Bill de Blasio in his first run for New York City mayor. Even then she was setting out her own stall as an apostle of the progressive left and has continued to raise her profile as an activist.

Were she to defeat incumbent Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary in September, she would have a decent shot of becoming the first gay woman ever to occupy the governor’s mansion in Albany, depending, of course, on whom the Republicans choose to field. (And New York, despite its overwhelming blue leanings, does on occasion elect Republican governors. You remember George Pataki, don’t you? Well maybe you don’t.)

Nixon’s record championing liberal causes is a serious one. She has focused on the state’s struggling public school system. Nixon has two children of her own growing up in the city – a daughter from a previous marriage and a son with her wife, Christine Marinoni – and both go to state schools. She has also engaged energetically on promoting women’s and LGBT rights.

Her background would normally help. She grew up in modest circumstances in a walk-up city flat – no lift or fancy doorman in her building – with her single mother. No carpetbagger she, unlike Hillary Clinton when she first ran for the US Senate in the state. Marinoni, by the way, worked in the first De Blasio administration, advising him on outreach to city organisations.

There is the small matter of name recognition. She has it, never mind another girlfriend I canvassed who confessed she’d never heard of Nixon or of Sex and the City. That’s because, well, the show is already 20 years old. Which is to say that Nixon is in her sixth decade – she is 51 – while another of her erstwhile co-stars is approaching her seventh. (Oh, Samantha, is it time to slow down?)

At any rate, Nixon has some early advantages. Nationwide, she was the number-one trending topic on Twitter within just 20 minutes of announcing her candidacy. And considering that four years ago a law professor named Zephyr Teachout came out of nowhere to win roughly a third of the votes challenging Cuomo, you can see why she can hope for some early momentum.

Yet, this is a run that is happening for the wrong reasons. To voters upstate it will come across as little more than a lark by an actress who is short of roles. As self-indulgence by someone looking for a new hobby. Moreover, to anyone paying attention, it is clearly a De Blasio put-up job. The Mayor can’t abide by Cuomo, so nothing will give him more pleasure than to see his re-election bid be made complicated. It won’t matter to him if Nixon wins or not; he knows she won’t.

The sad truth is, Cuomo deserves to be ousted. The son of Mario Cuomo, who was himself governor of New York until 1994, and a former cabinet member for Bill Clinton, he is more representative of the old, tired Democratic guard than even Hillary Clinton was. The brand is all used up. Voters, as we saw in 2016, are weary of Democrats who feel they are entitled to ever higher office. Cuomo ignores the trend and hopes to run for the White House himself in 2020.

But it’s smugness that voters really don’t respond to. Or the voters in upstate New York that I know, anyway. Especially smugness derived from years of wandering the corridors of the liberal elite in a place like Gotham. Add to that, Democrat voters, at least, are entitled to have doubts about former television stars who assume that just because they once commanded the pages of TV Guide, they can transition to the entirely more complicated landscape of politics and governing. Hey, Nixon, what makes you think you’re qualified. Have you served in office before, anywhere at all?