Renewables share in power mix to more than double by 2030

London — France's energy plan for the coming decade to be presented by President Emmanuel Macron November 27 will set more ambitious targets to cut fossil-fuels by 2030 despite major fuel tax protests, energy minister Francois de Rugy said Friday.

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"A 40% reduction in the use of fossil energy by 2030, that is more ambitious than the 2015 law which targeted a cut by 30%," the minister said in a radio interview with RTL echoing similar comments in an interview with French daily Liberation.

The additional cuts are mainly expected to come from the transport and buildings sector with the minister expecting a "profound change in the automobile industry" and EVs to account for 20% of new car sales by 2030.

The French government is currently facing strong opposition to planned fuel tax hikes that have triggered major street protests across France.

The minister also confirmed a 40% target for the share of renewables in the power mix by 2030, up from currently 18% and in line with the 2015 energy law set by the previous administration.

The key uncertainty in the much anticipated PPE plan for the period 2019-28 will be over nuclear, where the government already delayed the target set in the 2015 law of a reduction to 50% in the power mix from 2025 to 2035.

Here, the minister who took over in September following the surprise resignation by Macron's most popular minister Nicholas Hulot, prefers a "transformation scenario," but acknowledged that the final decision on reactor closures has not been made yet.

According to French news agency AFP, Macron will present key guidelines for the PPE on November 27 with the government studying three potential scenarios.In the first scenario, attributed to the energy and environment ministry (Hulot/de Rugy), six reactors would be closed by 2028 in addition to the Fessenheim shutdown, it said.

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The second scenario, called intermediate, would see no reactor closures before 2028 except Fessenheim as planned but EDF, but 12 between 2028 and 2035. That scenario would allow for the construction of new reactors, but EDF would receive no compensation for reactor closures, the report said.

The third scenario, backed by the ministry of economy, forecasts no reactor closures by 2028, but nine between 2028 and 2035, delaying the 50% nuclear target to 2040.

That scenario also planned for the construction of four new EPRs by 2040, the AFP report said.

Neither ministry was available for comment when contacted by S&P Global Platts.

More near term, the PPE is expected to detail planned coal plant closures before 2022.Last week, grid operator RTE said there was room for the closure of the five remaining coal units with 3 GW capacity after winter 2020/21 under certain conditions including the start of operations at the new EPR at Flamanville.

France still depends heavily on its fleet of 58 nuclear reactors, operated by EDF, with 2018 nuclear output set to remain below 400 TWh this year for only the fourth time this century, but up from record lows in 2016 and 2017.

--Andreas Franke, andreas.franke@spglobal.com

--Edited by Maurice Geller, newsdesk@spglobal.com