In Full Swing…State

Political junkies watched as near two-dozen Democrat presidential candidates stood on stage and bludgeoned one another. As the debates spun out of control, Team Trump gears up, executing an impressive 2020 re-election plan. That plan is strategic in scope and executed with laser precision. That focus is most acute in six swing states, AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA and WI. Those swing states are key to amassing 270 electoral votes and a second term for President Trump.

Don’t be stunned by a second Trump victory.

Trump and others, including Rush Limbaugh, have stated that non-swing states don’t much matter. They don’t much matter because they have already been decided. The Democrat nominee, for example, is going to win CA’s 55 electoral votes, period. They do not need to campaign there but they will, of course, visit to fundraise. President Trump has a similar situation in TX. The stunning 2016 election further highlights the dominance of swing states.

In 2016 Donald Trump was carried to victory by upsets in three “Rust Belt,” swing states: MI, PA and WI. The polls assured us Hillary Clinton would win those states, and they were almost right. Trump won those three states by a combined 80,000 votes, barely 0.6% of the total 137 million votes cast. Donald Trump won every swing state that night, which was an impressive feat. To understand how that happened, let us consider perhaps the most valuable swing state, Florida and its 29 electoral votes.

It’s Not 1962 Anymore

Clinton had a narrow lead in the Florida polls going into Election Day. She also had a huge 250,000-vote lead in early voting, 66% more than Obama’s 2012 lead. Those two data points predicted a Clinton victory. Late-deciders, however, had other plans. Prodded by Trump rallies, social media and online ads, they swung hard for Trump. In the end Trump won Florida by just 112,911 votes or 1.2%. That “swing” shocked the political world, but one Trump campaign worker saw it coming.

Brad Parscale

Brad Parscale was that worker. He was Trump’s digital media director in 2016 and now serves as his campaign manager. Parscale doesn’t believe in traditional polling methods. In a recent interview he dismissed the pollsters, “It’s not 1962 anymore.” Calling and asking people how they plan to vote is an unreliable predictor because (1) fewer people have landlines and (2) too many people lie to pollsters. Trump voters are especially leery of pollsters and, therefore, prone to fibbing.

In the interview, Parscale disclosed Trump’s poll-less 2020 strategy. In summary, the number one reason voters will back Trump is immigration. Trump stands for the rule of law and border security while the Democrats, well, don’t. All Democrat candidates embrace some version of free healthcare for immigrants, open borders and either overhauling or abolishing ICE. Those views are an anathema to Republicans, who support Trump by 85%-90%, as do many Democrats.

Trump Team Gears Up: Targets Acquired

In another interview, Parscale described the huge data edge the Trump campaign has acquired. A good candidate might have direct contact with 5 million people. The Trump campaign expects to have direct contact with up to 60 million. It’s an insurmountable advantage, but communicating with 60 million people is expensive. Team Trump is out-fundraising the Democrats almost two-to-one. A lot of that money will be spent in a familiar swing state, Florida.

In Florida America First SuperPAC has one very specific task; secure 972,000 new Trump voters. Why 972,000? In 2016 4.3 million Floridians backed Trump. The campaign expects those votes to return but have determined they need 5.25 million to carry the state. Closing that gap requires 927,000 additional Trump voters. Who are those voters? Vice President Mike Pence spoke to an exuberant group of them in Miami on June 25, 2019.

The large Latino crowd cheered wildly as Pence checked off President Trump’s long list of accomplishments. When Pence brought up immigration the crowd, on queue, began chanting, “Build the Wall!” Once calmed, Pence told them that Latino Americans “are starting new businesses at nearly three times the national average.” More cheering. All of this, the location, the issues, the audience, is by design. Don’t be stunned by a second Trump victory, it’s in the plan.