by Vincent Verhei

Jay Cutler’s performance wasn’t the best of Week 2. But it was probably the most fascinating.

We all knew that the Chicago Bears’ passing game would lean heavily this season on Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, and with those two players banged up on Sunday night, it was hard to imagine how Chicago could have much success. For a good chunk of the game, it was worse than anyone feared. Including real estate lost on penalties, their first six drives produced nearly as many punts (six, one of them blocked) as yards gained (8) (no, that is not a typo, their first six drives produced 8 total yards; three of those drives actually lost yards). Their seventh drive was an 80-yard march resulting in a Marshall touchdown, but even that had as much to do with San Francisco’s defensive mistakes (the 49ers committed three penalties on the drive, for 35 yards and two first downs, including a third-down conversion) as it did with anything the Bears did well. Cutler finished the first half going 10-of-20 for 64 yards, with one sack, one fumbled snap, and only three first downs (including the Marshall score).

The 49ers were still up 17-7 at the break, and they added a field goal on their first drive of the second half (a 14-play, 9:04 campaign) to go up 20-7. The Bears were down two scores with less than 21 minutes to play. That’s not usually an insurmountable lead in today’s NFL, but given Cutler’s rotten day to that point, it was hard to see a comeback in the cards.

And then Cutler went on a hot streak the likes of which we’ve rarely seen, throwing just one incompletion the rest of the day. The next drive began a little slow, as Cutler started 3-of-4 for 4 total yards and no successful plays, but the Bears maintained possession thanks to two more San Francisco defensive penalties to convert third downs. And then, for the last 18-plus minutes of game time Cutler went 10-of-10 for 106 yards, with every pass counting as a success. Three of those passes went for touchdowns (thanks in part to San Francisco turnovers that set the Bears up with good field position), four others went for first downs, and the others were a 5-yard gain on first-and-10 and an 11-yard gain on first-and-15.

When the smoke cleared, the Bears had an absurd 28-20 win. Cutler finished 26th among qualifying quarterbacks in first-half DYAR, but first by an enormous margin in second-half DYAR. The visual graph of Cutler’s progressive DYAR total (see Figure 1) is even more striking. Please note that I have done nothing whatsoever to alter the visualization of this graph. I have not manipulated the data, nor have I artificially smoothed the line. Cutler’s start really was that consistently bad, and his finish really was that consistently great. And he needed almost all of it -- he hit such depths that even after the touchdown that made it 20-14, he was still hovering right around the zero-DYAR threshold. He needed those last three plays (including two more touchdowns) to get solidly into positive numbers.

For comparison's sake, here is Colin Kaepernick's progressive DYAR against the Bears from the same game (Figure 2). It's a lot worse, obviously, but more to the point it's a lot more jagged, with good plays mixed in amongst the bad, not all saved until the end. In that sense, it's a lot more typical of what we would expect from most quarterbacks in most weeks.

Leading Rushers

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As promised, here are the leading running backs for this week by rushing value alone:

1. DeMarco Murray, DAL: 29 carries, 167 yards, 1 TD, 50 DYAR

2. Mark Ingram, NO: 11-83-1, 43 DYAR

3. Jeremy Hill, CIN: 15-74-1, 36 DYAR

4. Arian Foster, HOU: 28-138-1, 24 DYAR

5. Silas Redd, WAS: 8-41-1, 23 DYAR

(Anyone else find it ironic that we started listing these every week, and then this season the top rushers are usually the top overall running backs anyway?)

The least valuable rusher of the week was Buffalo's Fred Jackson (12-24-0, -27 DYAR). Jackson's first carry against Miami was an 11-yard gain on first-and-10. He didn't have another successful carry all day, with a long gain of 4, four runs for no gain or a loss, and an average gain of 3.5 feet (not yards) per carry.

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 1. Peyton Manning DEN 21/26 242 3 0 178 178 0 Manning had 11 throws on second down. Ten of them were completed for 80 total yards, one touchdown, and four other first downs. The 11th resulted in a 17-yard DPI. 2. Nick Foles PHI 21/37 331 1 1 147 141 6 3. Philip Rivers SD 28/37 284 3 0 144 146 -2 Odds are that this game will look even better later in the year when opponent adjustments kick in. His DYAR is also dinged for a pair of fumbled snaps that don't tell us much about how he performed as a passer. Rivers had the league's best DYAR on short passes, where he went 26-of-31 for 243 yards with two touchdowns and 13 other first downs. Only five of those completions counted as failed plays, and all of those came in the second half. 4. Kirk Cousins WAS 22/33 250 2 0 130 130 0 Cousins' first pass came with more than eight minutes left in the first quarter. He didn't throw an incompletion until nearly 22 minutes of game time had passed, and by that time Washington was ahead 21-7. He started 12-of-12 for 139 yards and a touchdown, with five other first downs, plus a 14-yard DPI. 5. Aaron Rodgers GB 25/42 346 3 0 120 103 17 Rodgers' first seven pass plays produced two sacks, two turnovers, and 3 net yards. He made up for it later with the long ball. He had the league's best DYAR on deep balls, going 3-of-6 for 136 yards, plus a 27-yard DPI. 6. Joe Flacco BAL 21/29 166 2 0 104 110 -6 This was quite the streaky game. In the first and third quarters, Flacco went 15-of-17 for 123 yards with two touchdowns and eight other first downs, plus a 23-yard DPI. Only Andy Dalton had more DYAR in that timeframe. 7. Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU 14/19 139 2 0 93 93 0 Fitzpatrick's average pass traveled just 4.9 yards past the line of scrimmage, shortest of any quarterback this week. No, I don't no how many times Fitzpatrick has "led" the league in this category, but I bet this isn't the first time. 8. EJ Manuel BUF 16/26 202 1 0 86 101 -14 This game could have been an even bigger blowout if Manuel had played better in the red zone. His first five red-zone passes (over three separate drives in the first half) produced four incomplete passes and a 7-yard gain on third-and-9. He had one red-zone pass in the second half, and that went for a touchdown that put the Bills up 23-10. 9. Andy Dalton CIN 15/23 252 1 0 86 85 1 Dalton had the league's worst DYAR throwing to the outside (8-of-14 for 27 yards and two first downs), but the league's best DYAR throwing to the middle (7-of-9 for 225 yards, with every completion gaining at least 16 yards and a first down. 10. Cam Newton CAR 22/34 281 1 0 83 76 7 What kind of effect has Kelvin Benjamin had on the Panthers' offense? Brandon LaFell led the team in 2013 with six receptions on deep passes. In two pro games, Benjamin already has five receptions on deep balls, including two against Detroit this week. Newton threw seven deep balls against the Lions, completing four of them for 87 yards. 11. Austin Davis STL 22/29 235 0 0 76 76 0 Inside the Tampa Bay 40, Davis went 4-of-7 for 33 yards with one first down and one sack. 12. Tom Brady NE 15/22 151 1 0 69 76 -8 Brady threw 24 passes on the day (including two DPIS), with 18 going to the left side of the field. He completed 12 of them for 128 yards with a touchdown and six other first downs, and also drew a 12-yard DPI. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 13. Jay Cutler CHI 23/34 176 4 0 66 57 8 14. Brian Hoyer CLE 24/40 204 1 0 54 54 0 Hoyer threw seven deep passes against the Saints. None of them were complete, though one did pick up a 19-yard DPI. 15. Alex Smith KC 26/42 255 0 0 53 50 3 On third downs (including one fourth-down pass), Smith went 10-of-13 for 132 yards, with every completion picking up a first down. 16. Russell Wilson SEA 17/25 202 2 0 52 52 0 Wilson's numbers would be a lot higher except for a sack-fumble in the second quarter, and a bad finish. In the fourth quarter, he went 4-of-8 for 26 yards and only one first down -- and that came on a 14-yard gain on the last play of the game with Seattle down 30-21. 17. Derek Carr OAK 27/42 263 1 2 40 16 25 Life as a quarterback in Oakland: All of Carr's passing plays came with the Raiders trailing, and all but one of them down by at least 14 points. On third and fourth downs, he went 4-of-8 for 26 yards with two first yards and an interception, the word third-down DYAR of any quarterback this week. 18. Josh McCown TB 16/20 179 0 1 36 15 21 Somehow, McCown managed to rank this low despite a league-best 67 percent Success Rate. He only completed two deep passes -- or, one more than Mohamed Sanu. 19. Drew Brees NO 27/39 237 2 1 27 26 1 Brees had the worst first-quarter DYAR of any quarterback this week (and as we shall explain when we get to Jake Locker, that's saying quite a bit. On the Saints' first four drives he went 7-of-12 for 23 yards with one first down and one sack. 20. Eli Manning NYG 26/39 277 2 2 18 17 1 It was not a strong finish for Eli. After the Cardinals kicked a field goal to go up 22-14, Manning went 7-of-15 for 59 yards with three first downs, one interception, and one sack. 21. Tony Romo DAL 19/29 176 1 0 14 14 0 Romo only threw three deep passes against Tennessee, completing two of them for 40 yards. 22. Matthew Stafford DET 27/48 293 1 1 11 8 3 Like Romo, Stafford also completed two deep passes in his game against Carolina -- in nine passes, with an interception. But hey, those two completions gained 46 yards. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 23. Andrew Luck IND 20/34 172 3 1 11 10 1 24. Geno Smith NYJ 16/32 176 1 1 1 -10 11 Smith didn't have much luck targeting the middle of the field, going 4-of-8 for 36 yards with two first downs. 25. Drew Stanton ARI 14/29 167 0 0 -27 -27 0 Stanton's average pass traveled 11.6 yards past the line of scrimmage, and his average completion came 8.4 yards downfield, both the highest figures of any passer this week. Really! Drew Stanton! 26. Ryan Tannehill MIA 31/49 241 1 1 -59 -49 -10 Tannehill had eight failed completions, tied with Drew Brees and one behind Matt Ryan for most in the league. 27. Colin Kaepernick SF 21/34 248 1 3 -64 -59 -5 Kaepernick was this week's worst first-down quarterback, going 5-of-12 for 58 yards with three first downs, two interceptions, and three sacks. 28. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 22/37 217 0 1 -69 -69 0 Roethlisberger was the league's worst quarterback inside the opponents' 40, where he went 6-of-9 for 46 yards with two first downs, one sack, and one interception. 29. Jake Locker TEN 18/34 234 1 2 -71 -69 -2 Locker pulled things together after halftime, but in the first half he was by far the worst quarterback of the week, going 4-of-12 for 26 yards with one interception, one sack, and not a picking up a single first down. 30. Matt Ryan ATL 24/44 231 1 3 -105 -119 14 Remember when we said that Andy Dalton was the league's best quarterback when throwing to the middle of the field? Well, his counterpart on Sunday was the worst, going 5-of-15 for 84 yards with three first downs and two interceptions. 31. Matt Cassel MIN 19/36 202 2 4 -164 -170 6 It's not just that Cassel was awful, it's that he got worse as the game went along. By DYAR, his fourth quarter was worse than his third quarter, which was worse than his second, which was worse than his first. His average completion came just 2.7 yards past the line of scrimmage, least of any quarterback this week. 32. Chad Henne JAC 14/28 193 1 1 -171 -175 4 Henne was sacked 10 times, the most of any quarterback since Greg McElroy for the Jets in 2012. He did not pick up a first down until the Jags were down by 21 points in the second quarter, and only had four first downs on the day. On first and second downs, he went 9-of-20 for 55 yards with one first down, one interception, and four sacks. You know, maybe it wasn't Blaine Gabbert's fault after all.

Five Six most valuable running backs Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Real No. 1. Darren Sproles PHI 26 1 152 0 81 13 68 Um, oops. Somehow, Sproles slipped through the cracks on our QR calculator and was not originally included in this table. And it's not because he played on Monday night, since Ahmad Bradshaw made the list. Regardless, Sproles was by far the most valuable running back of the week. His four carries included a touchdown on second-and-goal from the 19, though that was somewhat offset by a zero-yard gain on third-and-1. As a receiver, though, he was lights-out. Seven catches in seven targets, gains of 57 and 51 yards, two other first downs, and two other successful plays. His lone "failure" was an 8-yard gain on second-and-20. 1 2. DeMarco Murray DAL 167 1 6 0 48 50 -2 Murray finishes first in DYAR even though he had a fumble. He had four runs for no gain or a loss, but five runs of 10 yards or more, and ten first downs, including a touchdown. He had one catch for 6 yards in two targets. 2 3. Mark Ingram NO 83 1 21 0 46 43 2 Each of Ingram's 11 carries gained positive yardage and three gained 10 yards or more. He had five first downs, including a touchdown. The Saints threw him four passes, and he caught three of them for 21 yards. 3 4. Jeremy Hill CIN 74 1 22 0 44 37 7 Hill was the NFL equivalent of a singles hitter, getting on base a lot, but needing help from teammates to score. He only ran for three first downs (including a goal-line touchdown), but each of his 15 carries gained positive yardage, and 11 of them counted as successful plays. He had three receptions for 21 yards in four targets. 4 5. Ahmad Bradshaw IND 70 0 26 2 42 10 32 5 6. Le'veon Bell PIT 59 0 48 0 32 14 19 Do running backs even get stuffed anymore? Each of Bell's 11 carries gained positive yardage too, including a 21-yarder, a 16-yarder, and two other first downs. He caught all five of the passes thrown his way for two more first downs.

Least valuable running back Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Knile Davis KC 79 2 26 0 -45 3 -48 Davis was fine as a rusher, with a 25-yarder, a 19-yarder, and a pair of goal-to-go touchdowns. As a receiver, though, he had six catches in nine targets, and those receptions included a 2-yard loss on first-and-10, a 1-yard gain on first-and-10, a 1-yard gain on second-and-10. He also fumbled on another reception.

Five Six most valuable wide receivers and tight ends Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR 1. Antonio Gates SD 7 7 96 13.7 3 71 Gates became the first player to score three touchdowns against Seattle since Dwayne Bowe in 2010. He also had three other first downs; he converted three third-and-8s and a second-and-20. His only catch that wasn't a first down was still successful, a 5-yard gain on first-and-10. 2. Jordy Nelson GB 9 16 209 23.2 1 68 It was not the best week for Quick Reads, as our original version of this somehow managed to omit both the top running back and the top wide receiver from these tables. In addition to the nine catches listed here, Nelson also drew a 27-yard DPI, for nine total first downs. His only reception that didn't pick up a first down was a 4-yard gain on second-and-6, still a successful play. 2. 3. Sammy Watkins BUF 8 11 117 14.6 1 51 Watkins had five first downs on the day, four of them third-down conversions. 3. 4. Julian Edelman NE 6 7 83 13.8 1 49 Edelman's six first-down receptions included two third-down conversions. He had one carry, a 9-yard gain on third-and-2. 4. 5. Andre Roberts WAS 4 5 57 14.2 0 44 On top of the receptions listed here, Roberts also had a 14-yard DPI, for five total first downs. He also gained 19 yards on a first-and-10 run. 5. 6. Jimmy Graham NO 10 13 118 11.8 2 42 Nine of Graham's receptions resulted in first downs, including three third-down converstions.