Crime in Context Violent crime is up in some places, but is it really a trend? Updated 09.28.2016: This story has been updated with new data from the FBI's "Crime in the United States, 2015" report. Is crime in America rising or falling? The answer is not nearly as simple as politicians sometimes make it out to be, because of how the FBI collects and handles crime data from the country’s more than 18,000 police agencies. Those local reports are voluntary and sometimes inconsistent. And the bureau takes months or years to crunch the numbers, so the national data lags behind the current state of crime. To present a fuller picture of crime in America, The Marshall Project collected and analyzed 40 years of FBI data on the most serious violent crimes in 68 police jurisdictions. Our analysis of the years 1975 through 2015 found that violent crime in these jurisdictions rose 2.2 percent last year, while nationally violent crime rose 3 percent. (But crime experts caution against making too much of year-over-year statistics.) In the process, we were struck by the wide variation from community to community. To paraphrase an aphorism about politics, all crime is local. Each city has its own trends that depend on the characteristics of the city itself, the time frame, and the type of crime. In fact, the trends vary from neighborhood to neighborhood within cities; a recent study posited that 5 percent of city blocks account for 50 percent of the crime. That is why most Americans believe crime is worse, while significantly fewer believe it is worse where they live. We’re making the data we collected available to download, for anyone who might be interested in examining the historic trends. Take a look at this chart, and you’ll see how changing the city, the type of crime — murder, rape, robbery, or aggravated assault — or the span of time studied can affect your view of how crime is changing. You can scroll down for city-by-city trends and highlights. EXPLORE VIOLENT CRIMES REPORTED TO 68 POLICE DEPARTMENTS The of was in between and 2015 . Milwaukee's Violent ClimbThe New York City DropBaltimore's SpikeRandom

A Matter of Perspective In his speech accepting his party’s nomination for president at the Republican National Convention in July, Donald Trump proclaimed that “Our president, who has used the pulpit of the presidency to divide us by race and color, has made America a more dangerous environment for everyone than frankly I have ever seen and anybody in this room has ever watched or seen.” But days later when the Democrats gathered for their convention in Philadelphia, President Obama responded, “Donald Trump calls [America] ‘a divided crime scene’ that only he can fix. It doesn’t matter to him that illegal immigration and the crime rate are as low as they’ve been in decades…” So who is right: Trump or Obama? Are we in the throes of a crime wave sweeping across the nation, or is this a period of stability and safety unlike any we’ve seen in a generation? The Marshall Project used a widely accepted statistical calculation to get a weighted average of recent years — essentially smoothing out the year-to-year fluctuations that are common to crime data. We found that the reported violent crimes rose in our cities last year to its highest point since 2012. But viewed in the broader context of the past five decades, crime remains near record lows. Note that we focused on cities, where crime is most prevalent, excluding more affluent suburbs or the sparsely developed rural areas that make up the rest of the country. View crime trends as framed by Since 1975 Barack Obama Donald Trump President Obama is correct when he says violent crime is near an all-time low. Since 2008, the national rate of violent crime has been lower than at any point since 1976. Although recent data, such as a report compiled by the Major Cities Chiefs Association a professional organization of the leaders of the country’s largest police departments, show crime in several major cities has risen in the past year, the uptick is still dramatically lower than the highs reached in the early 1990s. Donald Trump’s assertion that the nation has become more dangerous than he (or anybody) has ever seen is clearly inaccurate. Since Obama was sworn into office, violent crime in the major cities and across the nation has dropped, albeit not as dramatically as in recent history. New studies such as one published this summer by the National Institute of Justice show homicides rose in dozens of cities last year, though much of that increase was concentrated in just 10: Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Washington, D.C., Nashville, Tenn., Philadelphia, Kansas City, Mo., and St. Louis. Looking back to 1975, crime today is low, but there is growing consensus that the dramatic drops of the early 21st century may be slowing, if not leveling off entirely.

The chiefs’ perspective in 2016 n the midst of the debate over whether crime is up or down, the Major Cities Chiefs Association has been surveying its membership to collect the number of violent crimes reported each quarter. The FBI’s data is a good historical benchmark but isn't particularly helpful to police rank-in-file in combatting crime, said the association’s executive director, Darrel Stephens. The chiefs’ mid-year snapshots 2015 and 2016 offer a glimpse of what has been happening in these major cities. They show upticks in many of the jurisdictions over the first six months of this year. Some – like New Orleans, San Antonio, and Houston – are dramatic. But more than 40 percent of the police departments reported decreases in violent crime. Crime rates are erratic. Singular events, such as the Orlando nightclub shooting, can dramatically skew individual years. Changes in how certain crimes are reported can affect these numbers, as can shifting policing priorities. That is why crime experts recommend looking at the change in a city’s crime rate over at least several years. Ultimately the chiefs’ survey is too limited to tell us whether the crimes reported in these jurisdictions represent a sustained trend or are indicative of what’s happening nationally. The FBI will not release 2016 numbers until late next year. “I don't know if we've got the beginning of a longer term trend in the change in violent crime,” Stephens said. “We've had this 20-year decline. I don't know if that's changing. I think it's too soon for anybody to really know that for sure.” Mid-year violent crime comparison City 2015 2016 %Change Albuquerque, N.M. 2693 2544 -5.53 Arlington, Texas 969 1049 8.26 Atlanta 2184 2162 -1.01 Aurora, Colo. 678 814 20.06 Austin, Texas 1784 1970 10.43 Baltimore County, Md. 1993 1563 -21.58 Baltimore 4611 4991 8.24 Boston 2171 2066 -4.84 Charlotte-Mecklenburg, N.C. 2595 3161 21.81 Chicago 7202 8920 23.85 Cincinnati 1108 1086 -1.99 Cleveland 2848 2625 -7.83 Columbus, Ohio 2357 2027 -14 Dallas 4342 4774 9.95 Denver 2180 2210 1.38 El Paso, Texas 1200 1354 12.83 Fairfax County, Va. 293 338 15.36 Fort Worth, Texas 2125 2169 2.07 Fresno, Calif. 1317 1563 18.68 Honolulu 763 744 -2.49 Houston 10200 11593 13.66 Indianapolis 2957 3402 15.05 Jacksonville, Fla. 2449 2409 -1.63 Las Vegas 2713 3255 19.98 Long Beach, Calif. 1302 1408 8.14 Los Angeles County, Calif. 6489 7082 9.14 Los Angeles 11883 14078 18.47 Louisville, Ky. 2065 2342 13.41 Memphis, Tenn. 4023 4335 7.76 Mesa, Ariz. 1019 923 -9.42 Miami 2072 1922 -7.24 Miami-Dade County, Fla. 3162 2899 -8.32 Milwaukee 4341 4383 0.97 Montgomery County, Md. 896 786 -12.28 Nashville, Tenn. 3488 3701 6.11 Nassau County, N.Y. 483 510 5.59 New Orleans 1652 2001 21.13 New York City 17848 18120 1.52 Newark, N.J. 1413 1231 -12.88 Oakland, Calif. 3169 2921 -7.83 Oklahoma City 1526 1676 9.83 Omaha, Neb. 1207 1105 -8.45 Orlando, Fla. 1270 1193 -6.06 Philadelphia 7648 7374 -3.58 Pittsburgh 1050 1143 8.86 Prince George's County, Md. 765 820 7.19 Raleigh, N.C. 822 736 -10.46 Sacramento, Calif. 1832 1716 -6.33 Salt Lake City 643 770 19.75 San Antonio 4005 5111 27.62 San Diego 2845 2644 -7.07 San Francisco 3452 2988 -13.44 San Jose 1700 1919 12.88 Seattle 1826 1885 3.23 St. Louis, Mo. 2806 2776 -1.07 Tampa, Fla. 1121 974 -13.11 Tucson, Ariz. 1706 1988 16.53 Tulsa, Okla. 1799 2019 12.23 Virginia Beach, Va. 342 377 10.23 Washington, D.C. 2929 2806 -4.2 Wichita, Kan. 1362 1582 16.15 City 2015 2016 %Change Albuquerque, N.M. 2693 2544 -5.53 Arlington, Texas 969 1049 8.26 Atlanta 2184 2162 -1.01 Aurora, Colo. 678 814 20.06 Austin, Texas 1784 1970 10.43 Baltimore County, Md. 1993 1563 -21.58 Baltimore 4611 4991 8.24 Boston 2171 2066 -4.84 Charlotte-Mecklenburg, N.C. 2595 3161 21.81 Chicago 7202 8920 23.85 Cincinnati 1108 1086 -1.99 Cleveland 2848 2625 -7.83 Columbus, Ohio 2357 2027 -14 Dallas 4342 4774 9.95 Denver 2180 2210 1.38 El Paso, Texas 1200 1354 12.83 Fairfax County, Va. 293 338 15.36 Fort Worth, Texas 2125 2169 2.07 Fresno, Calif. 1317 1563 18.68 Honolulu 763 744 -2.49 Houston 10200 11593 13.66 Indianapolis 2957 3402 15.05 Jacksonville, Fla. 2449 2409 -1.63 Las Vegas 2713 3255 19.98 Long Beach, Calif. 1302 1408 8.14 Los Angeles County, Calif. 6489 7082 9.14 Los Angeles 11883 14078 18.47 Louisville, Ky. 2065 2342 13.41 Memphis, Tenn. 4023 4335 7.76 Mesa, Ariz. 1019 923 -9.42 Miami 2072 1922 -7.24 Miami-Dade County, Fla. 3162 2899 -8.32 Milwaukee 4341 4383 0.97 Montgomery County, Md. 896 786 -12.28 Nashville, Tenn. 3488 3701 6.11 Nassau County, N.Y. 483 510 5.59 New Orleans 1652 2001 21.13 New York City 17848 18120 1.52 Newark, N.J. 1413 1231 -12.88 Oakland, Calif. 3169 2921 -7.83 Oklahoma City 1526 1676 9.83 Omaha, Neb. 1207 1105 -8.45 Orlando, Fla. 1270 1193 -6.06 Philadelphia 7648 7374 -3.58 Pittsburgh 1050 1143 8.86 Prince George's County, Md. 765 820 7.19 Raleigh, N.C. 822 736 -10.46 Sacramento, Calif. 1832 1716 -6.33 Salt Lake City 643 770 19.75 San Antonio 4005 5111 27.62 San Diego 2845 2644 -7.07 San Francisco 3452 2988 -13.44 San Jose 1700 1919 12.88 Seattle 1826 1885 3.23 St. Louis, Mo. 2806 2776 -1.07 Tampa, Fla. 1121 974 -13.11 Tucson, Ariz. 1706 1988 16.53 Tulsa, Okla. 1799 2019 12.23 Virginia Beach, Va. 342 377 10.23 Washington, D.C. 2929 2806 -4.2 Wichita, Kan. 1362 1582 16.15 Source: Major Cities Chiefs Association Violent Crime Survey

Where is violent crime up? Where is it down? For a longer-term perspective, we looked at the change in the violent crime trend between 2010 and 2015 in our 68-city sample. These 10 places had the largest increases and decreases over this period. Milwaukee: Up 11 percent between 2010 and 2015 Louisville, Ky.: Up 9 percent between 2010 and 2015 Newark, N.J.: Up 7 percent between 2010 and 2015 Fairfax County, Va.: Up 4 percent between 2010 and 2015 Denver: Up 3 percent between 2010 and 2015 It’s important to remember that these figures are based on voluntary reports. Changes in how certain crimes are reported (for instance rape) can dramatically affect these numbers, as can shifting department policies and numerous other factors. Prince George's County, Md.: Down 22 percent between 2010 and 2015 Orlando, Fla.: Down 19 percent between 2010 and 2015 Virginia Beach, Va.: Down 16 percent between 2010 and 2015 Los Angeles County, Calif.: Down 15 percent between 2010 and 2015 Boston: Down 14 percent between 2010 and 2015

68 cities with four patterns of crime In our analysis of violent crime trends, the cities and counties fell into four groups. The groups are mainly aligned by violent crime rates, with the most violent group averaging nearly 10 times the rate of violence as the least violent group. All four groups experienced a decline in violent crime rates. The group with the highest rates of violence — including Atlanta, Miami and Newark — saw the largest drop. Group A Group A consists of 13 police jurisdictions, with an average of 1,241 violent crimes per 100,000 people last year. From 1975 to 2015, the group’s violent crime trend has dropped 22 percent. Group B Group B consists of 18 police jurisdictions with an average of 970 violent crimes per 100,000 people last year. From 1975 to 2015, the group’s violent crime trend has dropped 3 percent. Group C Group C consists of 31 police jurisdictions with an average of 600 violent crimes per 100,000 people last year. From 1975 to 2015, the group’s violent crime trend has dropped 19 percent. Group D Group D consists of 6 police jurisdictions with an average of 152 violent crimes per 100,000 people last year. From 1975 to 2015, the group’s violent crime trend has dropped 17 percent.

Correction: An earlier version of this story included incorrect crime estimates for New York City for 2015. It has since been updated.