No amount of political gymnastics would help him reach the crucial 217 vote-level. Warring factions sink Boehner plan

In the end, it wasn’t only hard-line GOP conservatives that sank Speaker John Boehner’s plan to reopen the federal government and lift the $16.7 trillion debt limit.

The Ohio Republican, battered from three years of intra-party battles, was caught between at least three different GOP factions as he tried to craft a compromise agreement: Republicans who didn’t want to slash government health care contributions for Capitol Hill aides, members who thought repealing the medical device tax was a giveaway to corporate America and conservatives, who thought Republican leaders were too soft on Obamacare.


Boehner was unable to craft a deal that would satisfy all of the groups, forcing him to shelve his plan and show the world — again — just how hard it is for him to rule the raucous House Republican Conference.

No amount of political gymnastics would help him reach the crucial 217 vote-level to send a bill to the Senate. GOP aides said that Boehner was — at a minimum — 20 to 30 votes short of the target.

( QUIZ: How well do you know John Boehner?)

So a day that had started with some promise for Boehner ended in disaster. It put Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in prime position to strike a deal to solve Washington’s fiscal crisis. And it all but ensures that the shutdown he started — and the unprecedented debt default he risked — will end on someone else’s terms.

The real question for Boehner, Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) and Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is what comes next. Do they have to show more opposition by amending the bill, and continuing the grind of a multiweek shutdown and debt default crisis? Or can they simply put a Senate-passed compromise on the floor, saying the fight is over? That would almost certainly involve relying on a hefty number of Democrats to ensure passage.

Boehner, Cantor and McCarthy face an ongoing dilemma: The House GOP Conference is like a balloon. Squeeze it one place, and a problem pops out somewhere else.

( PHOTOS: 25 great shutdown quotes)

They have few, if any, tools to discipline conservative and tea party affiliated members. And they never whipped today’s proposal, assuming they could round up the votes for it without doing so.

Boehner’s closest allies say they doubt he can afford another round of back-and-forth with his conference. They think this battle is over.

Tuesday showed the inability of House Republicans to choose a plan, and stick to it.

After singing the hymn “Amazing Grace” at a closed Republican meeting, Boehner, Cantor and McCarthy announced they would push a bill funding government operations through Jan. 15, and raise the debt ceiling through early February, while delaying the medical device tax in Obamacare and forcing the Obama administration to verify the income of those who receive subsidies under the health care law. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) urged Republicans to vote yes. Boehner, after the meeting, said nothing was settled in the plan, but vowed to avoid default.

( Also on POLITICO: Senate leaders finalizing deal)

“I have made clear for months and months that the idea of default is wrong,” Boehner said. “And we shouldn’t get anywhere close to it.”

But the plan quickly ran into opposition from GOP conservatives, who wanted the government funding portion to run through mid-December, leaving them time to fight it out over Obamacare’s individual mandate and the requirement that employers provide birth control.

So Boehner and the other leaders changed that CR date, and thought they could move forward. But then Boehner found himself juggling other demands.

One pocket of internal Republican opposition focused on Boehner’s plan to slash government contribution to health insurance for Capitol Hill aides. Boehner and his top lieutenants had already proposed that lawmakers, Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and political appointees at executive-branch agencies should lose the subsidy. But when Boehner expanded that ban to thousands of Hill staffers, a solid bloc of GOP lawmakers told Boehner they would oppose the bill.

Boehner still tried to press on.

Another rebellious faction believes repealing the medical-device tax was nothing but a giveaway to corporate America, not a part of Obamacare that should be erased.

And then there were the conservatives, who looked at Boehner, Cantor, and McCarthy’s plan, didn’t see any serious attempt to defund or repeal Obamacare, and took a pass. Several lawmakers in this group, sources say, were conservative House Republican freshmen.

By around 5:30 p.m. Tuesday, Boehner and his Republican leadership team decided enough was enough. They called off a Rules Committee meeting and decided that they would forgo a floor vote. There was even staff-level talk of a one-week debt ceiling bill to avoid default.

GOP lawmakers and aides, who spent hours in meetings with Boehner Tuesday, were shocked to see him upbeat as his House Republican Conference crumbled around him.

Boehner’s options, at this point, seem slim. Reid and McConnell were on the verge of a deal Tuesday night to lift the debt ceiling until Feb. 7, reopen government until Jan. 15 and create a budget conference committee that would be required to report results by Dec. 13. Treasury could extend the debt ceiling using extraordinary measures. Health and Human Services would be required to certify the income of those receiving subsidies under Obamacare. Repealing the so-called “belly-button tax” – a tax on insurance plans to help offset risk – dropped out of the agreement.

The long-term impacts of Tuesday’s turmoil are not clear. Will Boehner suffer further erosion in his support from conservatives and tea party affiliated members, who already view him warily? Will Cantor’s future prospects in leadership suffer because he was at the negotiating table alongside Boehner?

Boehner allies strongly reject the idea that the speaker could be damaged by this latest debacle. After all, it was Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) who was setting the terms of this debate, not Boehner. The Ohio Republican wanted to pass a clean government-funding bill more than a month ago, while organizing a tidy negotiating process around the debt ceiling. Instead, everything became one big mess, where House Republicans were unsure what they were asking for, what they should be seeking, and for what price.

As late as Monday night, as they ate at Tortilla Coast, Cruz was urging 20 or so conservative House colleagues to stand strong. Many of them didn’t, and privately told leadership they would support their plan.

Then Heritage Action for America and FreedomWorks came out against the leadership proposal late on Tuesday afternoon, which spooked many House conservatives.

Now a few things are nearly certain: The House will have to wait for the Senate to act. They’re likely to get jammed. And it will be tough for Congress to come together before the Thursday debt ceiling deadline, risking further political damage to the GOP — and the nation.