colinistheman



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Hero MemberActivity: 867Merit: 1000 $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. August 01, 2014, 11:36:39 AM

Last edit: August 01, 2014, 04:38:41 PM by colinistheman #1



1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's)

2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's)

3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-)



I honestly believe most here will be telling our grand kids about a thing we used to have called money that evil governments printed at will to fuel stupid wars.



They will ask, "Gramps, how did you become so rich?"



You will say, "Because I SAW THE REVOLUTION COMING and put lots of worthless government notes into tech notes you call BITCOIN."



After you've been front lines in a couple of revolutions you start to see them coming.



BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution.



Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:

$0.05 per bitcoin. The start.

$0.50 per bitcoin. First tenfold bubble

$5.00 per bitcoin. Next tenfold bubble

$50.00 per bitcoin. Next tenfold bubble

$500.00 per bitcoin. Our current bubble

Next bubbles:

$5,000 per bitcoin.

$50,000 per bitcoin.

$500,000 per bitcoin.

For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now.



$50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble.



$500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin.



Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population?



Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world.



Bitcoin rejects no one.



So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go.



So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin.



10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion.



Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion



$500,000 Bitcoin baby.







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The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's)2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's)3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-)I honestly believe most here will be telling our grand kids about a thing we used to have called money that evil governments printed at will to fuel stupid wars.They will ask, "Gramps, how did you become so rich?"You will say, "Because I SAW THE REVOLUTION COMING and put lots of worthless government notes into tech notes you call BITCOIN."After you've been front lines in a couple of revolutions you start to see them coming.BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution.For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now.$50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble.$500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin.Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population?Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world.Bitcoin rejects no one.So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go.So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin.10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion.Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion$500,000 Bitcoin baby.- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers" . I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it.

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Lauda



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Exchange Bitcoin quickly-https://blockchain.com.do







LegendaryActivity: 2660Merit: 2643Exchange Bitcoin quickly-https://blockchain.com.do Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. August 01, 2014, 11:41:04 AM #2 Interesting read here. I'm pretty sure that this is possible, credit cards can be a pain I rather use Bitcoin.

This is just a matter of time. CCs were invented in the '50s right? So it took them quite some time for this level of adoption. We are in the age of technology now, so Bitcoin should/will spread at a much faster pace.

BurtW



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LegendaryActivity: 2604Merit: 1078All paid signature campaigns should be banned. Re: $500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it. August 01, 2014, 12:56:52 PM

Last edit: August 06, 2014, 01:10:57 AM by BurtW #11 math behind it:



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0



If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble:



$500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour



$75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet.



So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.



Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption:



P = (6(50/2e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW]



where:



x = exchange rate [USD/BTC]

e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1)

f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour]

c = cost of energy [USD/kWh]

g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio]



we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC.



In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions:



x = $500,000 per BTC

f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras

c = $0.10 per kWh

g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin



Code: Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world

Era starting year BTC/block BTC/hour GW power production

--- --------------- ----------- ---------- ----- ----------------

0 2009 50.00000000 0.00000000 1,350 58.41%

1 2013 25.00000000 0.00000000 675 29.20%

2 2017 12.50000000 0.00000000 337 14.60%

3 2021 6.25000000 0.00000000 169 7.30%

4 2025 3.12500000 0.00000000 84 3.65%

5 2029 1.56250000 0.00000000 42 1.83%

6 2033 0.78125000 1.31250000 27 1.17%

7 2037 0.39062500 3.65625000 27 1.17%

8 2041 0.19531250 4.82812500 27 1.17%

9 2045 0.09765625 5.41406250 27 1.17%

We cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon. Here is thebehind it:If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble:$500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000= $75,000,000$75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW.So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption:P = (6(50/2) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW]where:x = exchange rate [USD/BTC]e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1)f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour]c = cost of energy [USD/kWh]g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio]we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC.In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions:x = $500,000 per BTCf = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all erasc = $0.10 per kWhg = 0.1 miner gross profit margin Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security. Read all about it here: http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/ Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!