2 COVID-19 – is not like the FLU

Death Rate: The flu in the US has 12 million cases that need some medical attention with up to 36,000 deaths. This is a 0.3% fatality rate. The number of deaths from coronavirus has increased to over 2000. Only about 20% of the severe cases have fully recovered at this point. The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention puts the overall death rate for the coronavirus ncov-19 at 2.3%. Which we all know that this number is LOW – we do not have the final fatalities accounted for out of China.

Infection Rate: Scientists have studied seasonal flu for decades. So, despite the danger of it, we know a lot about flu viruses and what to expect each season. In contrast, very little is known about COVID-19 because it’s so new. This means COVID-19 is something of a wild card in terms of how far it will spread and how many deaths it will cause.

The measure scientists use to determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the “basic reproduction number,” or R0 (pronounced R-nought). This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times.

Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for COVID-19. A study published Jan. 29 in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be 2.2, meaning each infected person has been spreading the virus to an average of 2.2 people.

Note: Our own calculations on the R0 based upon give numbers (which we know are not accurate) was between 1.5-2.0. Just the number of days and the exponential increase indicates the R0 number is lower than it should be.

So if we just simply take the spread of the flu at some ‘x’ million per year and literally take the same R0(naught) numbers with a marginal increase – this Virus has the potential to impact millions. If accurate, this makes the 2019 nCoV more infectious than the 1918 influenza pandemic virus, which had an R 0 of 1.80 — source: CIDRAP

Severe case rate: Lastly, the severe case rate is considerably higher than the flu. An NPR article is chilling in the articulation that some 20% of COVID-19 patients are hospitalized. The addition concerns, much like the flu is that this is a virus that we will see year after year. The Flu is well under 3% of hospitalizations based upon CDC numbers (above). NPR article



source: WorldOmeter