Taxes will have to rise by £30 billion a decade to keep pace with the costs of an ageing population, an official report warned yesterday.

In a sobering analysis, the Office for Budget Responsibility said spending on health alone is set to double to £250 billion a year, blowing an ‘unsustainable’ hole in Britain’s public finances.

The cost of social care will also double to almost £40 billion a year – placing further pressure on health budgets.

And, in a triple whammy for the public finances, pension costs are also set to soar by more than a third.

Taxes will have to rise by £30 billion a decade to keep pace with the costs of an ageing population, an official report warned yesterday, depicted in BBC2's Hospital which shows NHS in crisis as doctors forced to choose whether to save cancer patient or OAP bleeding to death

The OBR suggested tax rises of £30 billion a decade – equal to £1,000 per taxpayer – will be needed to get Britain’s public finances back to pre-crisis levels.

The watchdog said: ‘Rising healthcare costs could make it harder for the Chancellor to balance the budget in the next Parliament and put the public finances on an unsustainable path over the longer term in the absence of further tax increases or cuts in other public spending.’

The warning came in a detailed analysis of the pressures on Britain’s public finances over the next 50 years.

The OBR, which is responsible for producing independent forecasts on tax and spending for government, has previously said future health spending will be driven largely by changes in demographics as Britain gets older.

But the new study warns that future costs are likely to rise even faster because of advances in medicine and technology which will make treatment available for more people than ever.

Previously, the watchdog had suggested that health spending would surge from 6.9 per cent of GDP to eight per cent over the next 50 years because of demographic changes. But the latest forecast predicts health spending will now soar to 12.6 per cent over the same period

The OBR states that total ‘age-related spending’ will be £83 billion a year higher than today by the middle of the 2060s.

But it suggests no government would contemplate trying to find the money in one go, and says ministers are likely to try to close the gap by either raising taxes or cutting spending in other areas over many years.

The Office for Budget Responsibility suggested tax rises of £30 billion a decade – equal to £1,000 per taxpayer – will be needed to get Britain’s public finances back to pre-crisis levels

Without action to raise taxes or cut spending, Britain’s national debt will almost treble from 82 per cent of GDP to a staggering 234 per cent.

Richard Murray, director of policy for the King’s Fund think tank, described the OBR’s findings as ‘a welcome dose of realism (which) highlights the current pressures on the NHS’.

He added: ‘Given that plans for the rest of this Parliament will see health spending fall as a proportion of GDP, it is another reminder that it is unrealistic to expect the NHS to continue to operate within spending plans at the same time as continuing to offer the same level of service.’

The findings will pile pressure on ministers who have already had to reject claims by the Red Cross that the situation in parts of the NHS this winter amounts to a ‘humanitarian crisis’.

Former Lib Dem health minister Norman Lamb urged the Government to begin cross-party talks on dealing with the looming financial squeeze in the NHS.

Mr Lamb said: ‘The government needs to confront this and level with the British people about the stark choices we face.

‘They need to work with others to sort this out, because there is a sense that we are sleepwalking to the precipice without any answer to this existential challenge that we face.’

The OBR analysis suggests ministers could ease the long-term pressure by scrapping the so-called ‘triple lock’ which protects the state pension. It suggests that this could save almost £20 billion a year by the mid-2060s.

Ministers have said the triple lock will stay until at least 2020, but Chancellor Philip Hammond has said the long-term cost will be reviewed – suggesting it could be axed after the next election.

Ministers have said the triple lock will stay until at least 2020, but Chancellor Philip Hammond has said the long-term cost will be reviewed – suggesting it could be axed after the next election

The new report also raises doubts about the Government’s aim of balancing Britain’s books early in the next parliament.

It suggests that, on current trends, the budget deficit could widen from 0.7 per cent of GDP in 2021-22 to 1.8 per cent by the end of the next Parliament in 2025-26.

Treasury sources said the Chancellor recognised the long-term challenges to the public finances and was determined to tackle them.

A spokesman said: ‘The government has already made significant progress in repairing the public finances – reducing the deficit from 10 per cent of GDP to four per cent over the last six years – and the Chancellor has set out new fiscal rules to bring the public finances back to balance as soon as possible in the next Parliament.

'We must continue to build on this progress by controlling public spending so that we deliver world-class public services at the lowest cost to the taxpayer.’