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CALGARY – Investment in Canadian oil plays has peaked and will not reach 2014 levels for at least another five years, a new report from the Conference Board of Canada predicts.

The report, released Wednesday, downplays the possibility of a quick recovery in the Canadian oilpatch, where cumulative employment, investment and revenue numbers have dropped along with oil prices. The think tank is now forecasting further drops in all of those metrics, and is predicting lower overall activity until 2020 at the earliest.

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Canadian energy companies are trading at record valuations, signalling their shares haven’t caught up to the reality of crude oil’s continued decline —





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“Six months ago, we were forecasting total investment in the oil industry [for 2015] to be about $60 billion,” Conference Board economist Mike Shaw said in an interview.

Now, he’s predicting Canadian oil producers will invest $44 billion this year, which is a 27% drop from the $56 billion invested in 2014. A further 9% drop, to $40 billion in total investment, is expected in 2016.