So here we are: Germany and Argentina, two traditional football nations, will decide the 2014 World Cup and no one can say they don’t deserve to be within one game of the trophy.

While demonstrating different profiles and styles, both negotiated passage through one of the most competitive tournaments in history and we are in for a very special game at the Maracanã. I have the feeling it will be more like chess than the festival of sprints we have seen throughout this World Cup but it should still be memorable.

Just don’t expect a goal festival like Germany v Brazil. In fact, the drubbing delivered to the hosts by Thomas Müller and co was one of the main reasons the second semi-final was such an anticlimax in comparison. Argentina and Holland both entered the game with a risk-averse plan and played pretty tight. Argentina knew they needed to sort out their defence after multiple scares in the group stages but they finally did with the arrival of Martín Demichelis who, alongside Ezequiel Garay, formed a very reliable centre-back pair.

On the Dutch side Louis van Gaal adopted the same strategy and that helped bring about a stalemate. Neither team gave the other space and, while Holland managed to keep Lionel Messi quiet, the Argentinians neutralised Arjen Robben.

There were few opportunities and it looked clear the game was heading towards penalties, which is why I was a bit baffled by Van Gaal’s decision not to use Tim Krul. He could and should have saved a sub, because the success of the move against Costa Rica also created a problem for the Dutch manager: poor Jasper Cillessen found himself under enormous pressure after being “snubbed” in the previous shootout. That gave Argentina confidence.

The teams that will face each other on Sunday are very different. Germany are certainly more complete, more well-adjusted and have more alternatives to deal with varied match situations. But Argentina have got Messi and I won’t buy the criticism of him. Messi has been fundamental for Argentina in this tournament and even when he doesn’t play that well he still keeps the opposition fretting. Germany as a team are formidable and the way you see players exchanging passes and switching positions is amazing. But they do not have a player like Messi. Even Müller is not that guy.

I believe Argentina will take the lessons of Brazil’s debacle and, instead of trying macho shenanigans, will play with as many men behind the ball as they can while hoping Messi can make the difference with one stroke. They cannot make the same mistake Brazil made in Belo Horizonte because Joachim Löw’s team will punish them just as badly as they did Big Phil Scolari’s boys. In this sense I have to pay compliment to Alejandro Sabella. He has shown the humility to change his mind when plan A didn’t work.

His 3-5-2 against Bosnia merely showed how detrimental to Messi it was and Sabella switched to a more appropriate formation to allow his best player to flourish. It is true that they now play in a kind of 4-4-2 with that midfield anchored by the great Javier Mascherano but they sorted what looked a very fragile defensive system and can now afford to hang in there and wait for Messi to pounce. Much as people in Buenos Aires will find it outrageous, this Argentina team remind me of Brazil in 1994, when they kept it tight at the back and allowed Romario to cut loose up front. But they are not a team that will suffocate Germany.

This will be a very tactical game. Löw already knows he won’t have the acres of space and the all-round naivety he found against Brazil. And he will have to find a way to keep Messi quiet.

I am very impressed with the Germany manager’s work. He was lucky to avoid more damage against Algeria and in a way Shkodran Mustafi’s injury helped him get his team right. Philipp Lahm had to move from midfield to the full-back position and Sami Khedira’s arrival was the hey-presto moment.

I understand why Löw persisted with Lahm in midfield. He plays in that position for his club thanks to Pep Guardiola and, although he is a very good player, he is neither tall nor getting younger. Löw also wanted to devise a formation in which he could use four defenders to compensate for his very mobile midfield.

But I won’t diminish what they did in Belo Horizonte. When a team is on a roll they take their chances. Had Germany not been playing well I doubt they would have put seven goals past Brazil, no matter how fragile the Seleção were on that evening. They hammered Brazil only because they did their homework, seizing upon Marcelo’s advances and David Luiz’s lack of tactical discipline. They toyed with us and you could see how organised Löw got his boys.

I put Germany’s chances of lifting a fourth World Cup at around 70%. But Messi can swing the momentum.

I find it silly that many Brazilians are horrified that Argentina made it to the final. It would honour the Maracanã to have a player like Messi crowned there. But I am Brazilian, so don’t expect me to cheer for him, OK? Besides, Germany’s second kit has the same colours as Flamengo, the Brazilian club that made me famous…