By Bernard Rowan

Donald Trump is the probable, but by no means assured, Republican candidate for President of the United States. I aim to get past some of the hoopla surrounding Trump's rhetoric on North Korea. This is important regardless of whether Trump represents the Republican Party or becomes the next U.S. President. South Korean interests dictate sobriety, not bombast, in managing diplomacy with the North.

The path of this American election plays into Pyongyang's theatrics. In some sense, with all due respect, Trump's rhetoric reminds me of Dennis Rodman. Media figures look to capture attention however they can, and regularly. Trump is just the more serious face of Rodman. Both declare openness to North Korea and to meeting Kim Jong-un. Those aims do not promise an end to the stalemate in relations. However, whatever goals both men have stand only as fodder for North Korean publicity schemes given what their "plans" amount to.

Meeting a world leader stands for nothing if the ground lacks preparation for concrete action. The Kim regime remains insecure. Its constant displays of military "prowess" and reports of sackings, jailings, and executions look like someone is in charge but betray a need to hide a deeper instability. At best, a grand plan to consolidate power using internal and external propaganda and related actions is at work. Occasionally, defectors arise who suggest politics in the North isn't what the regime tale portrays.

Trump, like Rodman, is an anti-establishment media figure, in at least some respects. Both are stolid conformists to that part of American culture intoning respect for money and fame without regard for their genealogies as diplomatic experts.

Trump might reject starting a conflict with the North. Or he might develop a policy proposal that outlines economic aid in exchange for the taking apart of a nuclear program. Or he might follow Ronald Reagan and develop further South Korea's and the United States' military defenses.

Trump might visit North Korea, but his fuller plan of using China to pressure the North or else face mammoth protective tariffs is a nonstarter. The United States has neither the leverage over nor the economic security to treat China like a naughty child in the playpen. Neither do the U.S. and her allies have the time to play footsy with Kim Jong-un and call it a media triumph or a win for personal diplomacy.

The North has significant military assets to attack the South. It is likely some offensive tactics escape detection. The South and its allies have enough military assets to win a conflict, but there is no way such a conflict would avoid significant harm to the South and to the United States.

Trump cannot think the North will give up its nuclear program in the near term. Available threats and carrots do not compare with what existed for Iran. Relations lack the context to develop a similar agreement soon.

Mind you, a good "talk" with Kim Jong-un or his ministers can occur, and there are many ways to do that, including over the phone. Talks occur at least indirectly on some occasions, through intermediaries or back channels.

We should be wary of any candidate in South Korea or the United States who pledges radical action to change in any immediate or quick way the status quo. North Korea is an anti-status quo power, and its legitimacy depends on dysfunction. The North's utopia is dystopia. Kim's government's survival and credibility need a grand story the South and her allies cannot accept.

To be leaders and peoples of societies that value freedom and democracy puts any credible candidate for high office in opposition to North Korean political culture. To be casually familiar with North Korea's totalitarian security state apparatus should always decide against being friendly-like with Pyongyang.

Deterrence and sanctions and vigilance to all seconds of minutes of hours of days are boring actions, less media appealing, harder to continue and much less popular than grand talk and bolstering. Any global leader faced with North Korea has to live in this harsh reality. North Korea needs to face a consistent diplomatic message that she fails to honor her own word. There is no point in talking much with a lying outlying nation. To help the North save face, Pyongyang must want and show concretely and consistently that it intends to act in a way that anticipates a future without war and conflict. Until that time, Trump should focus on trying to win his own nomination. Balderdash leads to failure in all courts.

Bernard Rowan is associate provost for contract administration and professor of political science at Chicago State University, where he has served for 22 years. He is a past fellow of the Korea Foundation and former visiting professor at Hanyang University. Reach him at browan10@yahoo.com.