It was one of the most shocking AFL stories of the last decade — and one that still reverberates around the football world today.

Lance Franklin’s decision to spurn GWS, who he had been expected to sign with for months, and take the Swans’ nine-year, $10 million deal changed the paths of multiple clubs and players – and footy in Sydney as a whole.

So we’ve taken a look back at what COULD have happened in an alternate reality and how it would have all played out.

Watch Foxtel in an instant. Catch up and settle in with no installation & no lock-in contract. Sign up to all of Foxtel Now with a 10-day free trial. New customers only.

Round 18

Please, indulge us. What if … Buddy became a Giant?

THE DEAL IS DONE AND HAS AN IMMEDIATE IMPACT

Lance Franklin accepts a six-year, $7.2 million contract and moves as a restricted free agent from Hawthorn to Greater Western Sydney.

It is immediately the biggest win in the Giants’ history – since they’d only won three games in two seasons to that point.

With Buddy not taking up $1.1 million of their salary cap for the next year, the Swans are able to afford ruckman Shane Mumford (who in reality moved to GWS).

Shane Mumford and Lance Franklin. Picture: Phil Hillyard Source: News Corp Australia

Things get tricky at the draft in November. Holding Picks 1 and 2, GWS had been looking at Tom Boyd as the best 18-year-old in the country, but doesn’t need another tall forward at this point.

Instead, the Giants opt for Josh Kelly (who they actually took at No. 2) and are then torn between Jack Billings and Marcus Bontempelli.

In the opening round of 2014, Buddy leads a forward line featuring 37-gamer Jeremy Cameron and 10-gamer Jon Patton to an upset win over their ‘big brother’.

LISTEN TO THE LATEST EDITION OF FOX FOOTY’S THE DEBATE – DAVID KING, LEIGH MONTAGNA, NICK DAL SANTO AND TOM MORRIS ON HOW COVID-19 WILL RESHAPE THE AFL FOREVER

TAP HERE TO LISTEN ON YOUR PHONE

DRINKING THE COLA …

After nabbing two major forward recruits across 2012 and 2013, rival clubs revolted against Sydney’s COLA (Cost of Living Allowance), which gives the club an extra 9.8 per cent in the salary cap because of the higher cost of living in the Harbour City.

While there was anger when Kurt Tippett picked the Swans over one of the struggling Queensland sides, it got even louder when they nabbed Buddy — and the AFL eventually removed COLA entirely.

After a three-season fadeout, by 2017 the Swans had between $600,000 and $700,000 less in their salary cap to work with.

So, without Buddy, the Swans are able to overcome the angst of people like Eddie McGuire and keep COLA in place, while also allowing them to stay active in the 2014 and 2015 trade periods.

Could Lance Franklin and Phil Davis been teammates? Picture: Phil Hillyard Source: News Corp Australia

… BUT GETTING THIRSTY FOR MORE CASH

Buddy’s status as one of the game’s superstars both on and off the field was a massive boon to the Swans, given their position in a non-traditional Aussie rules state.

Sydney has the biggest fanbase in the AFL, according to Roy Morgan polling, but the problem is getting people to turn up. In 2012, a premiership year, the Swans averaged less than 25,000 fans a game.

When Buddy joined in 2014, the Swans’ average home attendance rose by over 15 per cent and merchandise sales went up by 20 per cent.

Membership totals have also continued to climb with Buddy at the club. From the 1996 Grand Final onwards, the Swans consistently averaged between 22,000 and 31,000 members. That jumped to 40,126 in 2014 and all the way up to 61,912 in 2019.

Not all of this can be attributed to Buddy, of course, but he is inarguably a box office draw. You could make the case he’s paid for his contract, even before you consider his on-field exploits.

Without him at the club, it may have been a slower climb in these key figures.

GWS’ figures likely would have risen even quicker, but it’s possible the AFL as a whole would have less interest in Sydney.

SWANS USE SALARY SPACE TO KEEP A BROWNLOW STAR …

Without Buddy at the club, just a few years later, the Swans are arguably $1.8 million better off.

Without his average yearly salary of $1.1 million on the books, as well as the COLA still in place, the Swans are able to reallocate those funds elsewhere.

After the real-life 2016 Grand Final, the Swans had close to $2 million tied up in Buddy and Kurt Tippett, plus over $500,000 left on Sam Reid’s deal signed in 2012. Their top-heavy cap also saw plenty of money heading the ways of Josh Kennedy, Dan Hannebery, Luke Parker, Kieren Jack and Jarrad McVeigh.

And so it was that Tom Mitchell ended up at Hawthorn, for essentially the return of Pick 14.

Mitchell was offered a five-year deal at the time, on what the Swans considered fair money, but a better offer combined with greater opportunity at Waverley Park saw the father-son pick depart.

Tom Mitchell may have stayed at the Sydney Swans after all. Picture: Brett Costello Source: News Corp Australia

It was in a sense a mirror of Kennedy’s move years earlier. At the time, he couldn’t get past Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge, Jordan Lewis and Brad Sewell in Alastair Clarkson’s midfield and went cheaply to the Swans.

Mitchell was clearly talented, but in the 12 months before his move, the Swans had signed Hannebery and Parker to five-year contracts, plus given a three-year deal to Jack. They couldn’t outbid the Hawks.

With a bit of extra cap space, perhaps the Swans are able to keep Mitchell. In the process he probably doesn’t win the 2018 Brownlow Medal – that lack of opportunity may still have been an issue, though he would’ve probably worked his way into the main midfield group by then.

… BUT THE GIANTS’ CAP CRUNCH HITS HARDER

The Giants have already struggled to fit many of their young stars into their salary cap in recent years. With Buddy’s six-year, $7.2 million deal on their books, that would’ve been even tougher.

Of course by nabbing Buddy themselves, they would’ve had a bit more cap space thanks to the COLA.

“COLA was removed, essentially, off the back of Kurt Tippett and Buddy Franklin going to the Swans in consecutive years,” GWS chief executive Dave Matthews said in 2018.

“We had nothing to do with either of those two decisions, but the knock-on effect when you remove COLA from the Swans, was to remove it from us.”

Lance Franklin may have taken up a fair chunk of the Giants’ salary cap. Picture: Phil Hillyard Source: News Corp Australia

If we put the cost of COLA at around $700,000, that’s still half-a-million dollars less each year to pay their young core.

Would the Giants have been able to afford Jeremy Cameron’s five-year, $4 million deal in 2015 if Buddy was there, for example? And would they have wanted to tie up so much cap space into the same position?

Of course, by the time the 2019 trade period rolled around, GWS would’ve been able to pay players like Stephen Coniglio. But that would’ve been for another reason entirely …

WHAT HAPPENS TO AN OUT-OF-CONTRACT BUDDY?

Part of what made Buddy sign with Sydney was the incredible long-term commitment they were willing to make to him – he’d already played 182 AFL games when he signed his nine-year deal.

It was a contract more reminiscent of US-style free agency, when stars in their mid-20s are locked in for a long time. The idea is you’re willing to pay overs for a player’s decline years (mid-30s and beyond), but in the process get their prime years for unders.

It now seems almost certain Buddy will retire as a Swan after the 2022 season, assuming he remains healthy.

Lance Franklin and Steve Johnson may have been teammates … Picture: Gregg Porteous Source: News Corp Australia

But if Buddy had joined GWS and then not signed a second contract, he would’ve become a free agent as a 32-year-old who’d played 300 AFL games (give or take) – but played just 29 over the past two seasons due to injury.

What kind of deal is out there for a player like that? You wouldn’t think a club would pay $1 million a year for Buddy on a new deal signed right now.

Do the Giants try to keep him more cheaply, allowing him to play out his years in Sydney?

Or could he have made a romantic move back to Hawthorn? After all, the Hawks were keen for a key forward last trade period to replace the retiring Jarryd Roughead. They ended up getting a different Giant in Jon Patton.

SO WHO WINS THE FLAGS IN THIS PERIOD?

In reality, Buddy has played in two losing Grand Finals with the Swans – 2014 and 2016 – while the Giants nearly made it in 2016 and then lost in 2019.

In 2014, the 17-5 Swans were the best side all year, being favoured by many heading into the flag decider. Buddy was key to that, kicking 79 goals and polling a career-high 22 Brownlow votes in just 19 home and away matches.

Without him and his 12 finals goals, perhaps Sydney doesn’t make it there, giving Hawthorn an even easier path to glory (though Port Adelaide gave the Hawks a big scare in the prelim).

The Giants wouldn’t have contended in 2014 even with Buddy, since they won six games. But he could've been the difference in 2015 (when they won 11) and surely would’ve made his mark a year later.

In reality, Lance Franklin watched his former Hawthorn teammates celebrate the 2014 AFL flag. Picture: Michael Klein Source: News Corp Australia

Many still believe 2016 was the Giants’ best chance at a premiership yet. They were vanquished by the fairytale Bulldogs in that epic prelim, but if Buddy was in the forward line on that day – helping fill the void of a suspended Steve Johnson – things could’ve gone differently.

On the other side of the 2016 Grand Final were the Swans — and the Giants would’ve been heavy favourites, given their commanding 36-point qualifying final over their cross-town rivals earlier that September.

Buddy probably wouldn’t have swung the 2019 flag – he wasn’t going to make up for an 89-point margin – but we’d argue he’d be a 2016 premiership player if he’d been in charcoal and orange.