A team’s win probability is based on applying the model from Wayne Winston’s book Mathletics to my own point spread, which is derived in part from the Simple Rating System.

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Season record against the spread: 8-8

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) at Baltimore Ravens

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Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco threw 62 passes in Sunday’s loss to the Bengals, and Baltimore’s running back situation is in disarray. The Ravens will squeak out a win and avoid going 0-2 against division opponents, but it will be close.

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Pick: Steelers +2.5

Win probability: Ravens 58 percent

Miami Dolphins (-1) at Buffalo Bills

Buffalo averaged 6.4 yards per play against the Bears in Week 1 (fifth highest in the league) and quarterback E.J. Manuel showed he might be a decent quarterback after all (91.7 passer rating). Miami also put up an impressive showing last week, beating the Patriots. But over the past decade, Buffalo is 7-2 against the spread when favored over Miami.

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Pick: Bills +1

Win probability: Bills 54.3 percent

Detroit Lions (+3) at Carolina Panthers

The Panthers sit at No. 3 in the latest power rankings after Pro Football Focus rated the Carolina’s defense the second best in Week 1 and gave its pass coverage top honors.

Pick: Panthers -3

Win probability: Panthers 61.9 percent

Atlanta Falcons (+5) @ Cincinnati Bengals

The last time the Bengals lost a regular season game at home was in Week 14 of the 2012 season. Cincinnati should be able to extend that streak, but you have to think Matt Ryan, after throwing for 448 yards and three touchdowns, will keep it close.

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Pick: Falcons +5

Win probability: Bengals 59.7 percent

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New Orleans Saints (-6) @ Cleveland Browns

New Orleans showed it was vulnerable after losing in Week 1 to Atlanta, and running back Terrance West could help Cleveland’s offense again take them by surprise. West broke six tackles and averaged more than four yards after contact per attempt in his debut against the Steelers. He also had two runs for 15 yards or more.

Pick: Browns +6

Win probability: Saints 57.2 percent

New England Patriots (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings had a 100-yard rusher, but it wasn’t Adrian Petersen — it was wideout Cordarrelle Patterson, who ran for 102 yards and a score. However, expect a bounce-back game for New England cornerback Darrelle Revis, who wasn’t great but did limit the Dolphins receivers to just two yards after the catch when in coverage.

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Pick: Minnesota Vikings +3

Win probability: Patriots 59.4 percent

Arizona Cardinals (+1) @ New York Giants

The Giants looked terrible against the Lions on Monday night, as their passing game generated just 4.1 net yards per attempt. Add that to the best cornerback in the league on the other side in Patrick Petersen and the Giants should find themselves 0-2 to start the season.

Pick: Cardinals +1

Win probability: Cardinals 58.6 percent

Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) @ Tennessee Titans

This is the week Dallas rebounds. Tony Romo, when he wasn’t being sacked or throwing interceptions against the 49ers (“Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?”), averaged 6.3 net yards per attempt and completed four out of six passes under pressure.

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Pick: Cowboys +3.5

Win probability: Cowboys 52.3 percent

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) @ Washington Redskins

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Speaking of rebounds, Washington will also put a win on the board. Robert Griffin III put in an encouraging performance against Houston. He threw the ball away four times in Week 1 — the most among quarterbacks — and went a perfect 20 for 20 with a 106.3 passer rating when he released the ball within 2.5 seconds.

Pick: Redskins -6

Win probability: Redskins 75.1 percent

Seattle Seahawks (-5) @ San Diego Chargers

The Seahawks are the best team in the league, and if their opponents decide not to throw in Richard Sherman’s direction they are going to have to figure out how to solve Byron Maxwell. Maxwell was targeted 11 times in Week 1 by Green Bay, and Aaron Rodgers had a 58.7 passer rating on those throws.

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Pick: Seahawks –5

Win probability: Seahawks 59.7 percent

St. Louis Rams (+5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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The Rams are on their third-string quarterback (Austin Davis) and their offensive line allowed him to be pressured 17 times in Week 1: three sacks, five hits and nine hurries. Davos went 2 for 7 with four sacks under pressure. Tampa Bay doesn’t have the best pass rush in the league, but they do have outside linebacker Lavonte David, who led 4-3 OLBs in Pro Football Focus’s Pass Rushing Productivity metric last season.

Pick: Buccaneers –5

Win probability: Buccaneers 58.8 percent

Kansas City Chiefs (+13) @ Denver Broncos

Denver sliced and diced the Colts’ defense until Andrew Luck made a game out of it, but you have to wonder how Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles responds after just 19 yards on seven rushing attempts and zero touchdowns. Since he became the starter, he has had four games where he accumulated 50 yards or less in total yards (rushing and receiving). Twice he has followed that up with more than 200 yards and a touchdown, but the other two times have been 10-yard and 66-yard efforts. Go with Kansas City and the points, but expect Denver to win.

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Pick: Chiefs +13

Win probability: Broncos 71.6 percent

New York Jets (+8) @ Green Bay Packers

This has to be a statement game for Green Bay. The Jets pass coverage is no where near as good as Seattle’s, so expect Aaron Rodgers to throw to any receiver any where on the field at any time. Rodgers has only faced the Jets once before, but had no problem spreading the ball around with Darrelle Revis patrolling the secondary. With Revis now in New England, it could be a big day for the Packers receiving corp.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -8

Win probability: Green Bay Packers 75.1 percent

Houston Texans (-3) @ Oakland Raiders

The Texans will be without Jadeveon Clowney, but they still have J.J. Watt. It could be a tough day for Raiders rookie quarterback Derek Carr, who in his debut had a 89.1 passer rating under pressure and 77.1 when he was blitzed.

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Pick: Texans –3

Win probability: Texans 54.9 percent

Chicago Bears (+7) @ San Francisco 49ers

These two offenses could rack up 100 points combined in this matchup, but the 49ers are unveiling Levi’s Stadium to a national television audience on Sunday and since 2008 they are 3-1 against the spread when favored by a touchdown at home.

Pick: 49ers -7

Win probability: San Francisco 49ers 68.5 percent

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts

The last time Andrew Luck and Chip Kelly shared the same game field was Nov. 12, 2011, when Kelly and Oregon beat Stanford, 53-30. This time, Luck will be victorious. The key is if Philadelphia can slow down quarterback Nick Foles and the Eagles’ offense, as he is a much different quarterback when he is put under pressure.

Pick: Eagles +3

Win probability: Colts 58 percent