Market general

As I have previously stated , we are in the process of bottoming . Either prices will go sideways or may slightly drift to lower with a slight slope but that’s not what I expect honestly.I expect a range bound and then a 11,500 usd move by BTC.

In fact, if we start to recover from the 5.700 bottom, we had seen, this bear market will be a strange one, as I have showed in my previous articles that, the bear markets are mainly separated in two. One type is very short lived ones like 30–45 days, and real corrections with average 400-440 days. If we had seen the bottom, meaning we have bottomed in around 220 days. So not falling into any category , but my most possible scenario is that we will trade sideways for sometime, not sure if it is for another 200 days but, for sometime. Anyway, things will get better from here.

During this bear market have you ever thought of ; why do we invest in Cryptomarket? When we buy a coin, why do we buy it?

Are you buying a new Tech?

Are you buying the huge revolution led by blockchain?

Are you buying the fundamentals? ( if you do so, you should let me know about those fundamentals too)

OR

Are you buying the perception of other participants in the market. They perceptions, expectations about the market?

I think latter is the answer.

You might look and find out a real blockchain solution that really solves a real life problem but even if there is an actual product working that will never mean that that coin you are investing is gonna make you money, at least in the short run. It is also obvious that, if you can manipulate people by somehow, if you can influence the crowds, it is a very fragile ground that it is so easy to make money. All you need to do is to influence the crowds. And honestly, thats what everybody is trying to do nowadays.

Like everything, cryptomarket participants have some expectations, beliefs that causes some trends in their behavior so the prices of coins.

Say, for the last 6–8 months it is no secret that, people look for, interoperability, and scaling solutions. As if , many believe that , when that problem is solved real adoption will take place.

Is that true?

We don’t know, but highly likely that we are wrong. Probably, simplicity, security, low volatility and user friendly apps will lead the adoption.

But any project that claims to have any million TPS is hot, now. No matter what I believe. But it is ok for me, I don’t have to understand if any tech is superior than the other as long as I can understand what people will perceive about any technology, that is enough for me.

For me , tech is too fast changing, do not try to comprehend it and you don’t need it , I say. Try to capture, what people can understand and perceive from anything that they see. and the tech is too complicated for many that, an above average investor will not be able to understand if a product is superior or not than the other alternative.

But apart from perceptions, on the other hand, there are facts happening in cryto world. Apart from whatever people expect. Most of these facts are not priced in yet, but they will be priced in.

So , a healthy approach to investing in crypto seems to a healthy understanding of perception of other people, and also the facts that are actually happening.

This is the game

ART OF DECEPTION

I am always fascinated by the art of deception. As humans we do have a flaw.

We do have many flaw but this one particularly interesting.

You know the awareness experiment , please take a look at it before reading any further.

Like many magicians, or pickpockets , markets have a way of distracting your attention. Thats why not everybody makes money in investing/trading.

Now, keeping this in mind, lets go back to our previous issue.

We want to find the key to open our way to adoption. SO we think that interoperability and scaling solution will be the key, right? Now we are watching the new ICO’s coming and we are probably not seeing what is just happening in front of us.

For example Stellar , right now already making huge progress in adoption. but are we noticing that? Nope!

Or Dragonchain making real steps in interchain connectivity.

Also I expect/hope Fusion will deliver the main net soon. As a working product.

So , what I say is, it is ok to keep an eye on the expectations, while also it is wise to be aware of really whats happening. In the end, facts don’t change but perceptions adjust themselves to reality.