The fight for Senate control is still taking shape and, less than 16 months before Election Day, two states appear to moving in the Democrats’ direction on the battlefield.

Donald Trump came within about a point and a half of winning Minnesota in the 2016 presidential election. But that might be the new high-water mark for Republicans, and the GOP will have a hard time unseating Democratic Sen. Tina Smith in 2020.

Democrats have a 52-43 percent advantage statewide, according to the Inside Elections Baseline, which includes all statewide and House results over the most recent four election cycles. Republicans took a half-hearted shot at Smith last cycle, when she was on the ballot for the first time as a senator, but state Sen. Karin Housley lost by more than 10 points.

Housley recently announced she will not challenge Smith in 2020. That’s not a huge loss for Republicans considering she underperformed a generic GOP candidate with her 42 percent showing. But Republicans also lack immediate, strong alternatives.

Former Rep. Jason Lewis, who lost reelection last fall by more than 5 points, is publicly considering a comeback attempt in the 2nd District or a Senate run. And former 21st Century Fox executive Bill Guidera, a onetime finance chairman for the Republican Party of Minnesota, is seriously exploring a run.