How Louisville football can (and can't) beat Alabama

Jake Lourim | Courier Journal

Show Caption Hide Caption Football's Petrino talks recruiting & summer preview U of L football head coach Bobby Petrino discusses summer recruiting and some of what he's seen this summer as he looks ahead to football season.

This is the first edition in a series breaking down every game on Louisville’s 2018 football schedule and analyzing how the Cardinals can beat each opponent, and how they can lose to each opponent. We begin today with the season opener against Alabama and conclude July 13 with the rivalry game against Kentucky.

Scouting report: Alabama

Coach Nick Saban is mired in another miserable summer, swamped with the decision between a four-star quarterback who led Alabama into last year’s national championship game and a five-star quarterback who won it. Two Harrises (Damien and Najee) lead a dominant running back corps.

The Tide will have some questions on defense to start the season, having again lost key contributors in Minkah Fitzpatrick, Da’Ron Payne and Rashaan Evans. But Raekwon Davis and Isaiah Buggs are back as a strong duo of defensive ends, and Saban is still filling the gaps with four- and five-star recruits.

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How Louisville can beat Alabama

This is going to be an anticlimactic start. The reality is, on paper, the Cardinals cannot beat Alabama.

They are not alone in that regard. Alabama has better coaches and better players than almost all of its 2018 opponents.

The Crimson Tide are 11-0 in season openers under Nick Saban. They are 8-0 in neutral-site season openers like this one. They have won all eight of those games by double digits.

But we’ll save more stats like that for the section below. How can Louisville beat Alabama? First, the Cards are going to have to get much healthier in training camp, especially at running back. They played their spring game without Dae Williams, Colin Wilson, Trey Smith or Malik Staples. They’ll want at least three of those backs, plus redshirt sophomore Tobias Little, available for Alabama.

Once those players are back, expect Bobby Petrino to run the ball more often than usual in this game. He’ll need some time to break in redshirt sophomore quarterback Jawon Pass against a vaunted Alabama defense.

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More importantly, he’ll want to milk the clock and shorten the game, a strategy he discussed after last year’s game at Florida State, where Louisville’s defense was short-handed and the weather was hot. In fact, it would not hurt this year if the weather were really hot, unseasonably hot, hot enough to cancel Alabama’s flight and bust the air conditioning on the Crimson Tide’s bus.

Maybe some trick plays could work. The Cards have not run many in recent years, because why not put the ball in Lamar Jackson’s hands when you could, instead, put the ball in Lamar Jackson’s hands? Sept. 1 will be Louisville’s first game with Tutu Atwell, an athletic slot receiver in college but a decorated dual-threat quarterback at Miami Northwestern High School.

Fumblerooskis, fleaflickers and the Statue of Liberty are all encouraged.

How Louisville can lose to Alabama

More of those stats we promised: Alabama has not lost to an unranked team since 2007, Saban’s first year. Last year, the Tide demolished such opponents by an average of 38 points. The point spread for the Louisville game will be in that neighborhood.

In fact, there are many permutations that would result in the reigning national champions scoring more points than Louisville. The Tide could start Jalen Hurts, who is 26-2 as a starter in two seasons. Or they could start national title game hero Tua Tagovailoa, who threw the game-winning touchdown in overtime.

Read this: Louisville football one of the nation's biggest underdogs in Week 1

They could pound the ball on the ground, or they could go through the air. They could force turnovers against Pass and a young offense, or they could be patient and wait for punts. In some games last year, they could have decided to punt on third downs and still had enough firepower to win.

In short, the opener could go wrong for Louisville in any number of ways. Alabama just has to prepare this summer as it has in winning five of the last national championships … and pick a quarterback. Either one should do.

Jake Lourim: 502-582-4168; jlourim@courierjournal.com; Twitter: @jakelourim. Support strong local journalism by subscribing today: courier-journal.com/jakel.