Some interesting facts about the Wisconsin Democratic Primary based on the CNN exit poll:[1]

Exit polling of Democratic Wisconsin primary voters revealed some interesting things on Tuesday. Of course, exit polls are notoriously imperfect,[2] but if it can be assumed that these results are at least somewhat accurate Senator Sanders campaign has good reason to feel hopeful going into the remaining contests.

Sanders struggles with African American voters continued, but he won other minority groups handily

Sanders lost the black vote 69–31 according to the poll (black voters made up 10% of the total electorate). This result is consistent with past primaries, and Sanders must do better with black voters in the remaining contests to have a realistic chance at the nomination. But, Sanders only lost the non-white vote 57–43 (non-white voters made up 17% of the total electorate). This is a much smaller margin. What this means is that Sanders won other minority groups by almost as large a margin as he lost with African Americans. To be exact, according to this poll Sanders won the non-black minority vote by around a 60–40 margin. The sample sizes for Latino, Asian-American, and other race were all too small for us to see exactly how this might have occurred, but the clear upshot is that Sanders did very well with non-black minority voters.

Sanders dominated among independent voters once again, and pulled even among Democrats

Sanders dominated with independents 72–28, which was to be expected. Sanders continued dominance among independent voters in every primary thus far shows that he is the more electable candidate in the general election. Surprisingly, he also tied with Democrats 50–50, which means he could have won the state even if it was a closed primary. This bodes well for his chances in future closed primaries, particularly the all-important primary of New York on April 19th.

Sanders has built an unusual coalition of liberal and conservative voters

Hillary Clinton won among voters that want to continue Obama’s policies. These made up 52% of all voters, and she won them 61–39. Sanders easily won among those who think the next president should be “more liberal.” These made up 35% of the total, and he won them 80–20. However, Sanders also easily won among those that think the next president should be “less liberal.” These were 11% of the total, and he won them 67–32. There are several explanations for why voters that want a president less liberal than Obama would vote for candidate far to the left of Obama. Sanders much higher trustworthy numbers account for some of this, as people tend to vote for the honest candidate despite some disagreements on policy. Some of these voters may be concerned about gun control, which is one of the few issues Sanders stands somewhat to the right of Clinton and Obama on. Still others may disagree with Sanders’ more leftist policies, but care most about getting special interest money out of politics. Whatever the causes, Sanders coalition of voters is flanking Clinton’s campaign from both the left and the right.

Clinton dominated Sanders among voters that cared most about “experience”

This one is not good news for Sanders. Sanders was destroyed 86–14 among people who consider “experience” as the most important candidate quality. This is his worst demographic. His campaign clearly must do a better job of selling his record as an effective legislator and mayor. His policies as a mayor made Burlington more prosperous, he was dubbed the “Amendment King” in the House, and he was awarded the VFW congressional award and American Legion Patriot award for his bi-partisan work in the Senate. He should do more to make sure voters know he has a record of accomplishment. Clinton is, of course, an enormously experienced candidate herself. Even when these voters are fully aware of Sanders experience, they may still understandably prefer Clinton if they view her experience as more valuable. However, with the margin so bad for Sanders here, there is surely some room for improvement if he can make his record better known.

The momentum is real, and the longer the campaign goes the more Sanders benefits

Sanders won voters that decided who to support in the last month 68–31, which is perhaps the best news in the poll for the Sanders campaign. This means people tuning into the campaign in the last few weeks are overwhelmingly choosing Sanders over Clinton. This bodes well for later states where people are still deciding. In New York, 14% of respondents to the most recent poll stated that they might change their mind, and only 59% stated that they had definitively decided on a candidate.[3] Many of those late deciders in Wisconsin were likely independents, so the Sanders campaign probably can’t expect him to do as well with the current undecideds in New York (which is a closed primary). Still, if Sanders can continue to win late-deciders by large margins, he will consistently out-perform the polls, including in New York.

[1] http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/wi/Dem

[2] http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jun/06/outraged-wisconsin-exit-polls-so-wrong

[3] https://www.scribd.com/doc/306816571/CBS-News-2016-Battleground-Tracker-New-York-April-2016

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