Record early voting totals leave big question: Does rush favor Democrats or GOP?

Voters wait in line in Austin, Texas, March 1, 2016. >>Please don't do this when going to the polls, as you'll see in the photos that follow ... Voters wait in line in Austin, Texas, March 1, 2016. >>Please don't do this when going to the polls, as you'll see in the photos that follow ... Photo: ILANA PANICH-LINSMAN, STR / NYT Photo: ILANA PANICH-LINSMAN, STR / NYT Image 1 of / 14 Caption Close Record early voting totals leave big question: Does rush favor Democrats or GOP? 1 / 14 Back to Gallery

An unprecedented number of Texans cast their ballots during the first week of early voting, but it is impossible to predict whether that surge will benefit Republicans or Democrats because more than 25 percent of the voters have no primary election voting history, an analysis of data from the Secretary of State shows.

People whose voting records provide no clue of their party affiliation cast 27.8 percent of the ballots in the 15 most populous counties in Texas, according to the analysis by Republican consultant Derek Ryan.

About one-third of the early voters in those counties had voted in a Republican primary in the past; for Democrats, it was 30 percent. Those percentages are consistent with early voting totals from the last midterm primary, in 2014, Ryan said.

For subscribers: Houston Chronicle 2018 Voter Guide

For subscribers: San Antonio Express-News 2018 Voter Guide

But the 2018 numbers leave too many unknowns to draw conclusions, Ryan said.

“Unless somebody's out there polling those people and calling them, there's really no way necessarily to know if those people are voting Republican or Democrat,” Ryan said. “The same goes for the people that have primary history. Just because somebody voted in a Republican primary, it doesn't always necessarily mean that they're a Republican or that they are voting for all the Republicans on the ballot.”

In Harris County, 30 percent of early voters had no primary voting history. Thirty-three percent of early voters in the county most recently voted in a Republican primary, compared to 28.6 percent who most recently voted in a Democratic primary.

In Bexar County, 28.5 percent of early voters had no primary voting history. For those who have cast ballots in primary elections before, 29.3 percent most recently voted in a Republican primary, compared to 32.6 percent who most recently voted in a Democratic primary.

The 15-county analysis also found an increase in voters with Hispanic surnames. Those voters have cast 19 percent of the ballots in early voting so far; in 2014, 15.2 percent of early voters in Texas had Hispanic surnames.

In the 2018 election, People aged 60 to 69 made up 21 percent of early voters so far, the largest age group, the 15-county analysis shows. Voters aged 50-59 made up the second largest group at just under 20 percent, and voters aged 40-49 percent made up the third largest group at about 15 percent. Early voters aged 20-29 made up about 8 percent. This breakdown was consistent with totals for the 2014 midterm elections.

More storylines from the first week of early voting:

Tally so far already tops 2014 total: In the top 15 most populous counties in Texas, 2,669,506 voters cast in-person ballots and 311,409 cast mail-in ballots through Sunday, in the first seven days of early voting. It took just four days of early voting in the top 15 counties for the tally to surpass the total number of early votes cast in those counties during the 2014 midterms — and there is still nearly a week of early voting left.

Turnout hits 21 percent in metro counties: Through the first seven days of the 12-day early voting period, 506,356 voters cast their ballots in Harris County; in Bexar County, 241,751 votes were recorded; in Travis County, 216,112 cast ballots; in Dallas, 323,553 cast ballots, bringing voter turnout in each county to 21 to 28 percent.

Jump in voter registrations fuels surge: Texas voter rolls grew to over 15.6 million people, Texas Secretary of State Rolando Pablos said. That’s a jump of 1.6 million voters since the last midterm election in 2014.

Like a presidential election: Voter turnout is typically higher during presidential elections. An average of about 1.5 million people in Texas have cast ballots in each presidential election since 2000, compared to an average of 591,649 voters in each midterm election over the same time. But the number of voters participating in this election is more similar to the 2016 presidential election than any midterm since 2000, according to the Secretary of State’s office.

Early voting ends Friday, Nov. 2, and Election Day is Nov. 6.