HOW long might the so-called “frozen conflict” that is developing in eastern Ukraine last? A look at Armenia may give some idea. Its conflict with Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh first broke out in 1988, and is still going strong. Armenia’s borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey are closed to this day, leaving it isolated and economically stagnant. On March 19th three more Armenian soldiers were killed in a skirmish.

The increasing threat of escalation leads Armenia to depend upon Russia for protection, but Armenians are growing increasingly frustrated with the relationship. They are particularly unhappy with Russian arms sales to Azerbaijan, which account for 85% of that country’s acquisitions over the past five years, according to a new report. Armenia officially joined the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), a Moscow-led customs union, at the beginning of this year. But the decision to join the EEU was taken under duress, as Russia threatened to reconsider its alliance if Armenia signed an association agreement with the European Union.

The EEU does the Armenian economy few favours, according to Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Centre, a Yerevan-based think tank. The absence of shared borders with the other three members—Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan—makes trade difficult. Membership requires Armenia to introduce high tariffs, which undermine competitiveness and deter foreign investors. That, combined with the poor protection of intellectual-property rights, could threaten some of the economy’s bright spots, such as the IT sector, which contributed 5% of GDP in 2013.

Russia’s economic woes in the wake of falling oil prices and international sanctions have caused further damage. Remittances from abroad accounted for 21% of Armenia’s GDP in 2013. They fell by 7.7% in 2014, and are forecast to fall a further 30% this year. Russia has sent thousands of Armenians home, allegedly for violating migration rules, and more could be coming. Exports were down by 22% in January compared with a year earlier, and the Central Bank expects meager growth in 2015.

Popular frustration with Russia came to a head in January, after a Russian soldier murdered six members of an Armenian family in the city of Gyumri. The soldier was quickly spirited away to be tried in Russia. Thousands of Armenians took to the streets, protesting both Russian arrogance and their own government’s subservience. A heavy-handed police response only made matters worse.

Armenia cannot afford to turn its back on Russia, but the government is trying to draft a new association agreement with the European Union that would be consistent with its membership of the EEU. The EU is still interested in better commercial ties, as is America. In January, ContourGlobal, an American power company, made a significant investment in Armenia’s energy sector.

But although sharp resentment of Russia's influence may have grown, it is not weakening the government’s hold on power. On March 5th the government scored a victory when opposition leader Gagik Tsarukian, one of the country’s richest men, stepped down as head of the Prosperous Armenia party that he had founded. Mr Tsarukian had opposed attempts by Serzh Sargsyan, the president, to reform the constitution to move the country from a presidential to a parliamentary system. The opposition leader claimed the move would strengthen the ruling party, and tried to persuade Russia that Mr Sargsyan was no longer a reliable partner. The government responded by expelling him from the National Security Council and launching investigations into his business interests.

The ruling party’s use of state resources to pursue a political vendetta exemplifies the weaknesses of Armenian politics, Mr Giragosian says. With the opposition even more demoralized, Armenia is now close to being a one-party state. Moscow’s refusal to back Mr Tsarukian suggests that the government has Russian support. For now, the government in Yerevan, like the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, is likely to remain frozen.