From Patrick AFB this morning:

Launch Operations Forecast

Vehicle: Falcon 9 Orbcomm-1

Issued: 19 June 2014 / 1330Z (0930 EDT)

Valid: 20 June 2014 / 2208 - 2302Z (1808 - 1902 EDT) Launch Weather Team: (321) 853-8484



Synoptic Discussion: The low pressure mentioned in earlier forecasts is now developing off Floridas southeast coast. Models have changed in the movement of the low and now want to move the low northward and keep it off-shore. This will bring showery conditions today and tonight with an isolated chance of a thunderstorm. Tomorrow, showery conditions will continue as the low continues to move up the coast. At the opening of the launch window, expect the low to be east of the Cape bringing cumulus clouds and showers. However, if the models continue the trend in moving the low further eastward, this would result in drier conditions with less rain and clouds in the area. With the current model solution, cumulus clouds and thick clouds will be the main concern with now a lesser chance of violating the lightning and anvil cloud rules.

On Saturday, the low is expected to continue moving northward and weaken. This will bring isolated showers to the recovery area; however, improving conditions at the Cape. Expect the sea breeze to develop and move inland between the Cape and Orlando with showers and isolated thunderstorms. Cumulus clouds, thick clouds, lightning and anvil clouds will still be a concern in the launch window.



Clouds Coverage

Cumulus Scattered Altocumulus Scattered Cirrostratus Broken

Weather: Showers Visibility: 7 miles

Wind (MPH): 030° @ 14 P18 (162) Temperature: 82°F

Bases (feet)

3,000 12,000 30,000

Tops (feet)

7,000 16,000 35,000

Low



Solar Activity: Pressure:

29.97 INS RH: 72%



Launch day probability of violating launch weather constraints: 70% Primary concern(s): Cumulus Cloud Rule, Thick Cloud Rule, Lightning Rule, Anvil Cloud Rule



24-hour delay overall probability of violating weather constraints: 40% Primary concern(s): Cumulus Cloud Rule, Thick Cloud Rule, Anvil Cloud Rule, Lightning Rule





Sunrise:

20/0625 EDT 21/0625 EDT



Sunset:

20/2023 EDT 21/2023 EDT

Moonrise:

20/0136 EDT 21/0215 EDT

Moonset:

20/1421 EDT 21/1520 EDT



Illumination:

48% 37%



Next forecast will be issued: 20 June 0930EDT