Queensland's current carbon emissions would "virtually guarantee the extinction of most of the Great Barrier Reef" within 12 years if replicated worldwide, according to a new report.

Key points: Climate Analytics predicts rapid renewable rollout will lower power costs

Climate Analytics predicts rapid renewable rollout will lower power costs Its report finds Queensland must abandon its reliance on coal

Its report finds Queensland must abandon its reliance on coal The state's peak tourism body says the report demands urgent action

The report by Climate Analytics, a leading science institute whose funders have included the World Bank, recommends Queensland stop burning coal for power by 2030 to play its part in keeping global heating to 1.5 Celsius under the UN's Paris Agreement targets, agreed to by Australia in 2016.

Climate Analytics found hitting the necessary emissions reduction target would spell the end of Queensland thermal coal exports by 2040, as part of a "rapid and almost complete global phase-out" of coal for electricity.

Queensland is Australia's biggest carbon-emitting state and will blow its total "carbon budget" of 1.2 gigatonnes by 2031 if its carbon dioxide emissions remain at their 2017 rate, the report found.

The first-ever analysis of an Australian state's future emissions under the Paris Agreement paints world climate goals as being on a collision course with political support for coal in Queensland.

The report found the Palaszczuk Government's goal to achieve 50 per cent renewable power generation by 2030 — considered ambitious in comparison to other state and federal targets — still does not go far enough.

Bill Hare predicts thermal coal markets will crash from 2030. ( Supplied )

A "Paris-compatible benchmark scenario" would instead require Queensland to shift to 64 per cent renewables, 1 per cent oil and no coal by 2030.

Climate Analytics director Bill Hare said that meant cutting emissions from electricity by 74 per cent by 2030.

"That's very deep, it's fast, but it's feasible — and will likely lower power costs for consumers throughout the state," he said.

Mr Hare said abandoning thermal coal was "not even really a choice because if you want to have a Great Barrier Reef for the future, then we really need the world to limit its emissions sufficiently to hold warming to 1.5C".

"That means that the coal thermal markets are going to crash anyway," he said.

"What's really important is to get ahead of that curve and begin that transition early.

"There are many opportunities that have profound economic benefits for Queensland, not just for companies, but for communities and workers and so on."

The report comes as Federal Resources Minister Matt Canavan is pushing for a new coal-fired power station to be built in central Queensland and mining giant Adani plans to open the Galilee Basin for 60 years of coal exports.

The Great Barrier Reef will not survive global warming of more than 1.5C, the report noted. ( Supplied: Australian Marine Conservation Society )

Under the Paris Agreement, nations pledged to keep global heating "well below" 2C above pre-industrial levels, "pursuing efforts" to limit heating to 1.5C.

The Climate Analytics report said a rise of more than 1.5C would "virtually guarantee the extinction of most of the Great Barrier Reef based on present scientific knowledge, even if warming were limited to 2C".

'We can't afford to wait'

Daniel Gschwind from the Queensland Tourism Industry Council said the alarming findings showed more drastic action on climate policy would be needed to safeguard the iconic reef, which contributes $6.4 billion a year and 64,000 jobs to the national economy.

Mr Gschwind said the report showed "we must act and we cannot afford to wait any longer".

"The Federal Government's own agency, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, in its outlook report has drawn attention to the greatest threat facing the reef, which is climate change," he said.

"We are certainly encouraging the Federal Government particularly to strengthen its coordinated approach to climate change strategies across the whole spectrum."

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has forecast that 70-90 per cent of coral reefs worldwide will be lost at a 1.5C rise, with more than 99 per cent lost at 2C.

Global heating damages reefs through more frequent mass coral bleaching events, marine heatwaves, cyclones and ocean acidification.

Imogen Zethoven from the Australian Marine Conservation Society said the reef was "extremely vulnerable" after its worst ever mass bleaching events in 2016 and 2017.

"And that's going to happen again, unless we change the way we're creating wealth in the state and in Australia and move to a decarbonised pathway," she said.

Ms Zethoven called on the Queensland Government to "step further into the future [and] set a much more ambitious target" for renewable energy.

State Environment Minister Leeanne Enoch said the report "makes it very clear that Queensland cannot continue to do the heavy lifting on its own when it comes to action on climate change".

She said Queensland's climate commitments were "far beyond" those of the the Federal Government.

"It is increasingly obvious that the Federal LNP Government must accept the science of climate change, and take action," she said.

Ms Enoch said Queensland had "set clear targets including zero net emissions by 2050" and was "well on track" to 50 per cent renewable energy by 2030, with renewables forecast to reach 20 per cent next year.

The Climate Analytics report says Queensland needs 64 per cent renewable energy by 2030. ( Infinity Solar )

The Climate Analytics report assumed that to meet its share of the 1.5C target, fossil fuel emissions from Queensland's energy and industrial sectors would need to peak next year and reach net zero by 2050.

It found Queensland, which had a 24 per cent share of Australia's energy and industry emissions, was entitled to 0.2 per cent of "the remaining global carbon budget until zero emissions".

But carbon pollution in all sectors showed "a sharply increasing trend" from 2014 to 2017, when it hit about 101 megatonnes (Mt) a year.

This placed "greater pressure on policy and action if Queensland is to stay within a 1.5C Great Barrier Reef-compatible budget", the report found.

The Climate Analytics report said the state needed to cut energy and industry emissions overall by 55 per cent on 2010 levels by 2030 and reach negative emissions by 2050 using "technology deployed in the power sector".

Queensland's power sector made up half of the state's emissions and was on track to blow its 415Mt budget in the next eight years.

The power sector would need to reach zero net emissions by 2040, the report said.

Natural gas would rise to 35 per cent of power in 2030 but this "would not imply the need for investment into new capacity for gas" as its share should also drop to zero by 2040.

The Australian Marine Conservation Society called on Queensland to set a more ambitious renewables target. ( Supplied: Australian Marine Conservation Society/Steve Parish )

The report noted that while renewables made up only 7 per cent of Queensland power in 2017, this share could rise to 35 per cent in 2020 if all new solar projects, projected new solar households and a 400 MW renewable energy tender worked out.

The report found the transport sector also needed to move quickly to cut its emissions, which made up 22 per cent of the state's total.

The key would be "rapid electrification" of all vehicles through battery and renewable hydrogen fuel cells, cutting emissions 22 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030 and reaching zero by 2050.

By contrast with the power sector, industries including manufacturing and construction, mining, gas extraction and production, agriculture and cement production could cut emissions more slowly.

Those industries would need to reduce emissions by 23 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030.

Climate Analytics also warned that deforestation in Queensland would need to be halted as the land use and forestry sector "will need to be a net emissions sink to compensate for the remaining emissions from other greenhouse gases".

The report highlighted the slow pace of carbon pollution cuts by all nations under the Paris Agreement, with current commitments translating to a 2.9C rise by the end of the century.

It found current national policies would push that out to 3.2C.