Why Wolf Pack fans can dream big about Nevada basketball in 2018-19

For Nevada basketball fans, it’s hard not to think about, “What Might Have Been.”

The Wolf Pack very well could be playing in this weekend’s Final Four as it came one possession short of beating Loyola Chicago in the Sweet 16, the same Loyola Chicago team that crushed Kansas State two days later to advance to San Antonio. But Nevada fans can console themselves by thinking about next year.

The Wolf Pack’s 2017-18 season was arguably the best in school history. With most of the key pieces returning in 2018-19, next year could be even better – as long as everybody returns (more on that later).

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Just how good could Nevada be? Ken Pomeroy’s computer simulation projects the Wolf Pack as the seventh-best team in the nation based on its returning pieces. While the Sweet 16 appearance this season was a surprise, that could be the floor of next year’s team, which can enter the season with realistic Elite Eight dreams. Here is your first look at next season’s Wolf Pack, which aims for a third straight Mountain West title.

Who’s gone?

Nevada loses three seniors in Kendall Stephens, the most prolific single-season 3-point shooter in MW history; Hallice Cooke, who finished the season in the starting lineup; and Elijah Foster, who played a limited role.

The trio combined for 23 percent of the team’s scoring, with most of that damage being done by Stephens, whose shoes will be the largest to fill. The 3-point specialist hit a MW record 126 3-pointers last season, which also was a Nevada record and opened driving lanes for his teammates.

The Wolf Pack returns some good shooters, but Stephens' combination of size and shooting is rare. Cooke played a key role in the backcourt, but Nevada has lots of incoming transfers to fill that void. Foster, at 6-foot-7 and 235 pounds, provided size, but he averaged just 6.5 minutes a night.

Who’s coming back?

Well, that’s the big question, isn’t it?

In theory, Nevada should return three first- or second-team All-MW players in Caleb and Cody Martin as well as Jordan Caroline, a trio that combined for 60.2 percent of the team’s points, 56.1 percent of its rebounds, 57.4 percent of its assists, 57 percent of its steals and 53.3 percent of its blocks. That’s a ton of production, although each could test the NBA draft waters.

While NBAdraft.net projects Caleb Martin as the 27th pick in this year’s draft and Cody Martin as the No. 41 pick, most national sites have the twins as fringe prospects. ESPN pegs Cody as the 87th-best prospect in the draft and Caleb at No. 96.

The twins’ mother, Jenny Bennett, told the RGJ on Thursday they have had preliminary discussions on the future but have not made any decisions. A resolution could come as soon as early next week. Non-seniors have the option of entering the draft without hiring an agent to get feedback from NBA teams before returning to school, a benefit Wolf Pack players have used in the past.

Caroline, meanwhile, isn’t listed on any draft sites, although Illinois media has been frothing at the mouth about a potential transfer to the Illini, his hometown school, which seems more like wishful thinking than a realistic outcome (Illinois, the team Caroline grew up rooting for, didn’t recruit him out of high school or after he transferred out of Southern Illinois). Odds seem strong all three star players return to Reno.

In addition to that trio, also returning are Josh Hall, who blossomed in the NCAA Tournament and is deserving of starter’s minutes, and Lindsey Drew, a three-year starter at point guard. Drew is recovering from a torn Achilles on a timeline that should medically clear him around the start of the season, although he could use his redshirt year and be fully healthy in 2019-20 (Drew said he wants to play next season).

If all goes well, Nevada will return five high-level starting-caliber players, but there is some risk associated with the return of four of those five players. And that’s without mentioning a potential poaching of coach Eric Musselman by a school from a power conference. But we won’t go there; don’t want to stress out Wolf Pack fans too much. The good news is there are almost no quality head-coaching jobs open right now.

Who’s being added?

Like it has every year under Musselman, the Wolf Pack is adding firepower from Division I transfers. Guards Jazz Johnson (Portland), Nisre Zouzoua (Bryant) and Corey Henson (Wagner) and forward Tre’Shawn Thurman (Omaha) all redshirted this season but are eligible next season. Here's a look of each.

* Thurman: At 6-7, Thurman averaged 12.5 points and 6.7 rebounds on 50.3 percent shooting during his three seasons at Omaha. He has only one year to play at Nevada and is a Caroline clone, per Musselman, in his effort and style of play. Thurman transferred to Nevada to be freer to play on the perimeter, as did Caroline. Out of these four, he’s the surest bet to get big minutes and be productive.

* Zouzoua: A 6-2 combo guard, Zouzoua averaged 20.3 points as a sophomore at Bryant. He made 92 3-pointers in his last college season and is a 36.8 percent career shooter from three. Zouzoua comes from a lower level and there are questions over whether he’s a point guard or shooting guard, but he’s an excellent scorer who could be the first guard off the bench given Nevada’s deep starting five.

* Henson: A late addition to Nevada’s 2017 recruiting class, Henson is a 6-3 guard who averaged 14.6 points per game for Wagner last season. He’s a similar player to Zouzoua, although Henson only has one season of eligibility at Nevada to Zouzoua’s two. Henson, who played at DeMatha Catholic, one of the nation’s top high schools, has been the best coached of these four and is the most refined product.

* Johnson: Musselman has typically avoided small guards, but Johnson is a 5-10 pit bull. He averaged 15.8 points in his final season at Portland and has two years of eligibility at Nevada. He’s a 40.2 percent 3-point shooter in his career and automatic from deep in practice. He’s the best pure shooter of this group. He also played at the highest level among these four at his previous stop. Johnson doesn’t have ideal height, but he’s tough, has been productive in the WCC and can be a nice change-of-pace guard.

None of these players are likely to reach the level of Nevada’s previous transfers like Marcus Marshall, Caroline, the Martins or Stephens – it will be hard to get that kind of playing time next year – but they’ll add depth and proven bench production for a program that has sorely missed that the last three seasons.

The freshman class

Unlike last offseason, Nevada will add some freshman talent to the roster. The Wolf Pack signed two big men – K.J. Hymes and Vincent Lee – to letters of intent during the early signing period in November.

Hymes is a 6-11, 215-pound power forward/center from Phoenix and Lee a 6-9, 215-pound power forward from Midlothian, Texas. They’ll immediately become Nevada’s two tallest players, plugging a roster weakness the Wolf Pack was able to successfully navigate – for the most part – last season.

In his senior season, Lee averaged 19.6 points and 8.7 rebounds while shooting 62 percent from the field. Hymes, meanwhile, averaged a double-double (12.1 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 2.6 bpg) for Hillcrest Prep, which plays a national schedule.

The Wolf Pack has sparingly signed prep recruits under Musselman, but most of the ones it has inked – Cameron Oliver, Drew, Hall and even Kenny Wooten, who excelled at Oregon this season after getting out of his Nevada commitment – have done well ni college. Freshmen minutes might be hard to come by for these two given Nevada’s depth, but they combine to give the Wolf Pack some sorely needed size.

More work to do

The Wolf Pack has one more available scholarship in the 2018 class after inking Hymes, Lee and Louisiana Tech transfer Jalen Harris, who won’t be eligible to play for the Wolf Pack until 2019-20. The big fish is 6-11 big man Jordan Brown, who had 28 points and eight rebounds in Wednesday’s McDonald’s All-American game (those 28 points were the second-most for a California prep player in the game’s history behind only Paul Pierce).

The five-star recruit, whose stated goal is to go to the NBA after one college season, is one of the nation’s top uncommitted prospects. Nevada was the first school to offer him a scholarship and remains in the hunt even if it’s a long shot against power conference programs UCLA, Arizona, Cal, Oregon, Stanford and St. John’s. Landing Brown could make Nevada a preseason top-10 team.

More likely, Nevada will land more transfers. Despite having only one scholarship available, the Wolf Pack has checked in with nearly every quality D-I transfer, as has been the case since Musselman was hired.

A three-peat?

When the Wolf Pack opens next season, it should be favored to win the MW for a third straight season, something no school has done in outright fashion. But that hinges on the decision of the Martins, Brown and even Gonzaga, the West Coast power that is considering a move to the MW for the 2018-19 season.

If that does happen, the Bulldogs would provide a sterner challenge to Nevada’s repeat bid. But the Wolf Pack’s first Sweet 16 run – in 2004 – was followed by three more appearances in the NCAA Tournament. It’s always hard to predict the future, but this year’s Sweet 16 appearance, like that one, should only be the appetizer for further success.

Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at cmurray@rgj.com or follow him on Twitter @MurrayRGJ.