The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday started issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 16 and forecast it to strengthen into a hurricane and head for the Gulf Coast.

As of 10 p.m. CDT Wednesday, Tropical Depression 16 was located in the southwest Caribbean about 195 miles south-southeast of Puerto Cabezas in Nicaragua and was moving northwest at 6 mph.

It had winds of 35 mph. The hurricane center expects it to strengthen and become Tropical Storm Nate before it moves inland in Nicaragua on Thursday. Tropical storm force winds begin at 39 mph.

The storm will move near Central America then Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula before heading across the Gulf toward the northern Gulf Coast over the weekend.

A tropical storm warning has been issued from Sandy Bay Sirpi in Nicaragua to Punta Castilla in Honduras. The hurricane center said 15-20 inches of rain will be possible in Nicaragua, with isolated amounts of 30 inches possible.

And a hurricane watch was added late Wednesday for Mexico from Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche.

The center of the storm is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday.

The hurricane center also warned those in Honduras, the Bay Islands and western Cuba to keep an eye on the storm, which could be near hurricane strength by Friday.

TD 16 is forecast to move slowly northwestward near or across parts of Honduras and Nicaragua, then into the northwest Caribbean and into the southern Gulf by Saturday, the hurricane center said.

After that it's highly uncertain where it could go -- except north.

Computer forecast models show potential landfall points from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.

However, the official hurricane center forecast track puts the center of the storm near Pensacola, Fla., by Sunday as a hurricane.

Forecasters suggested not placing too much weight on the long-range track because computer models are far apart on their paths for the storm.

"Overall, the guidance has generally shifted a bit westward since the last cycle, so the latest points in the long range have been adjusted in that direction. At this point, I wouldn't focus too much attention on the details of the long-range forecast until the guidance comes into better agreement," forecasters said.

Conditions seemed ripe for the storm to intensify over the next few days, with lots of warm and deep water in the storm's path. Some models suggested the storm could rapidly strengthen, but its potential interaction with land (first in Central America, then possibly the Yucatan Peninsula) could stall that somewhat, the hurricane center said.

As for its intensity as it nears the U.S, the hurricane center said this: "The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials."

The National Weather Service office in Mobile is also watching the system and said it's still far too early to say where it will go -- and how strong it will be when it gets here.

Forecasters said an area of strong high pressure over the western Atlantic and Southeast will influence the system's path.

For TD 16 to move northward toward the northern Gulf Coast there will need to be a weakness in that ridge.

That weakness could come from another tropical wave that was located near southern Florida on Wednesday morning.

Forecasters will be closely watching that wave's path, because it could affect where TD 16 eventually goes.

Computer models are not of one mind on where the weaker wave will end up.

It could track west, which could produce a weakness in the central Gulf, and TD 16 could track northward toward the central Gulf Coast, the weather service said.

If the weaker wave moves north over the Florida peninsula, TD 16 could take a more northeasterly track into the eastern Gulf, forecasters said.

"The more westerly track would provide us with strengthening onshore flow and wet weather over the weekend, while the eastern track would provide us with more of an offshore flow and dry weather," the weather service said.

The northern Gulf Coast should start feeling the effects from the storm as soon as Saturday afternoon, forecasters said.

The worst weather is expected to be on the east side of the center of the storm, the weather service said. Those areas will be at more risk for heavy rainfall, tornadoes and storm surge.