Two surveys for Irish Times and RTÉ indicate clear victory for yes campaign

Ireland has voted by a landslide to lift the ban on abortion that had been enshrined in its constitution for three decades, the first exit polls from a historic referendum suggest.

If confirmed at Saturday’s count, the shock result – three years after Ireland became the first country in the world to approve same-sex marriage by a popular vote – would underline the speed and scale of change in a country that is still majority Catholic.

Exit polls from the Irish Times and the national broadcaster RTÉ showed a clear two-thirds of the country supported change. Dublin, as expected, had voted overwhelmingly to end the abortion ban (77%), but so too did rural areas that anti-abortion activists had counted on to form a bulwark of conservative support for the restrictive status quo.

The Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll late on Friday suggested a 68% to 32% vote in favour of yes. The RTE exit poll of 3,000 voters suggested that 69.4% voted yes in the referendum compared with 30.6% who said no.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest People gather around as flowers are left at the foot of a new mural of Savita Halappanavar. Photograph: Clodagh Kilcoyne/Reuters

The exit poll results could signal a seminal defeat for the Catholic church’s power only months away from a papal visit to the country – the first since John Paul II’s triumphant tour in 1979. After Pope Francis leaves Ireland in August the Irish parliament will begin within weeks the process of introducing legislation that will legalise abortion for up to 12 weeks into pregnancy.

Friday’s good weather and strong feelings about the subject contributed to a high turnout across the country. The Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, who supported the change and called the referendum a once-in-a-generation chance, said earlier on Friday that he was quietly confident that the high turnout was a good sign.



The province of Leinster outside Dublin was predicted to have voted at about 66% in favour of repeal, while Connacht-Ulster in the west was projected to be in favour of change by 59% to 41%.



The region includes Roscommon, the only county to have voted no to the marriage equality referendum in 2015.



Counting opens across the country at 9am on Saturday, with tallies expected to give a confident indication of the result by mid-morning or lunchtime and an official result to follow in the afternoon.



The scale of the projected victory was so big though that leading no campaigners conceded defeat within minutes.

“With a result of that magnitude, clearly there was very little to be done,” said John McGuirk media manager with the SaveThe8th campaign. “Thank you to every no voter and campaigner.”

Quick guide The Irish abortion referendum Show Hide The Irish abortion referendum Ireland is set to vote on abortion law reform on Friday 25 May. In a the referendum, voters will decide if they want to repeal an article in the republic’s constitution known as the eighth amendment. The amendment, or article 40.3.3 of the constitution, gives unborn foetuses and pregnant mothers an equal right to life – and is, in effect, a ban on abortion. Currently, terminations are allowed only when the life of the mother is at risk, with a penalty of up to 14 years in prison for breaking the law. The government in Dublin has promised to introduce legislation allowing for abortions during the first 12 weeks of pregnancy if the vote goes in favour of repeal. Photograph: Clodagh Kilcoyne/X03756

Goretti Horgan, a pro-choice campaigner who has worked for abortion rights on both sides of the Irish border, said: “Even if [the exit polls] were 10 percentage points out, it would still be a massive victory for the yes side.”

What you need to know: the Irish abortion referendum explained Read more

Voters were asked if they wished to scrap a 1983 amendment to the constitution that gives an unborn child and its mother equal rights to life. The consequent prohibition on abortion was partly lifted in 2013 for cases where the mother’s life is in danger. The outcome predicted in Friday night’s polls is almost a complete turnaround of the original 1983 referendum. Thirty five years ago the Irish electorate voted 67% in favour of a constitutional amendment that put the life of an embryo and foetus on the same legal as par as a mother’s right to life.

Ireland legalised divorce by a majority of just 9,000 only in 1995, but became the first country to adopt same-sex marriage by popular vote in a 2015 referendum.

But no social issue has divided its 4.8 million people as sharply as abortion, which was pushed up the political agenda by the death in 2012 of a 31-year-old Indian immigrant from a septic miscarriage after she was refused a termination.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Members of the public hold yes placards on Fairview road in Dublin, Ireland. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Prominent pro-choice campaigner Ruth Bowie said the poll pointed towards “a result that brings huge relief”.

Bowie was one of the first women to speak out publicly in Ireland about having an abortion in England because her pregnancy was doomed due to fatal foetal abnormality.

The Dublin-born nurse formed part of the Terminations for Medical Reasons Ireland groups, which campaigned for change in the Irish abortion laws.

“Nobody can ever change the devastation that a diagnosis of a fatal foetal abnormality brings but now Ireland can change the way those couples are treated. For that make the heartbreaking decision to end the pregnancy they will no longer be kicked out of Ireland made to feel like criminals for their choice,” she said.

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Polls had narrowed in the run-up to voting, after an increasingly polarised and acrimonious campaign. Although yes had the lead, the outcome was widely expected to depend on the one-in-six voters who were still undecided before ballots opened.

Yes campaigners argued that with over 3,000 women travelling to Britain each year for terminations – a right enshrined in a 1992 referendum – and others ordering pills illegally online, abortion was already a reality in Ireland.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest A voter prepares his ballot paper at the Marlborough Street National School polling station in Dublin. Photograph: Barry Cronin/AFP/Getty Images

The Irish government’s push to liberalise the laws is in contrast to the United States, where abortion has long been legal, but the president, Donald Trump, backs stripping federal funding from women’s health care clinics that offer abortions.

Among the young in particular the vote was overwhelmingly in favour of ending the ban. Nearly 9 out of 10 voters between 18 and 24 voted ‘yes’, the exit poll found.