A recent visit to a Padang restaurant raised my doubts about the likelihood of Indonesia becoming self-sufficient in rice, a goal that President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo wants to achieve within the next three years.



The popular eateries, run mostly by Minang people from West Sumatra and found almost everywhere in Indonesia, have a habit of giving generous servings of rice. For takeout, they even serve two large scoops. Tambuah ciek, meaning 'one more serving please', is the most popular Minang expression, which patrons of all ethnic groups shout out to the waiters, often before they even cleared the rice on their plate.



You can't eat delicious and spicy Padang dishes like gulai, rendang and dendeng balado without rice. The spicier the dish, the more rice you need.



Padang restaurants may have a lot to do with why Indonesians are the exception to the rule among Asian countries where rising prosperity means eating less rice. As Indonesia joins the rank of middle-income countries, we eat more rice.



This is bad news for Jokowi's goal to make Indonesia self-sufficient in rice, the staple diet of the nation's 250 million people, by 2017.



The president is pumping out a lot of money, repairing and building reservoirs and irrigation networks, clearing land for new rice cultivation outside Java and giving assistance to farmers. He seems adamant he can achieve this, for he has made it clear that he would fire Agriculture Minister Amran Sulaiman if the goal is not met.



The more pertinent question however is whether rice self-sufficiency is sustainable.



In the 1980s, President Soeharto went all out to turn Indonesia, which for years had been the biggest buyer in the world rice market, to become self-sufficient. In 1985, he collected a prestigious UN award for this achievement. A few years later, however, the nation returned regularly to the rice market to make up for its output gap, until today.



In the absence of any change in eating habits, Indonesia's rising population means that the country must produce more rice to keep up with demand.



Rising income has also meant higher per-capita rice consumption, unlike in Japan, Korea and China, where they managed to diversify their dietary habits. In 2004, the average Indonesian ate 124 kilograms of rice, in 2009 that figure rose to 127 kg, according to the Manila-based International Rice Research Institute (IRRI).



Excluding poorer Southeast Asian countries like Myanmar and Cambodia, Indonesia's rice consumption ranks among the highest in Asia. The average Malaysian, Japanese, Korean and Chinese, ate 74, 54, 81 and 76 kg respectively in 2009.



Only the Thais and Vietnamese eat more rice than Indonesians, with per capita consumption of 133 and 141 kg in 2009. But then they are large exporters, and Indonesia usually buys from them.



With the volume of rice traded in the world market thin, supplied by a few exporters, relying on imports makes Indonesia susceptible to price volatility. As more African nations eat and import rice, Indonesia faces a serious food security challenge. Jokowi was right in gunning for self sufficiency in rice, as well as in corn and soybeans.



Part of the solution to Jokowi's rice self-sufficiency challenge must come from changing the dietary habits of the burgeoning middle class, many of whom continue to eat as much rice, if not more, than before even as their income improves.



How can you resist nasi goreng for breakfast? How can you keep away from the various rice-based snacks like lemper and arem-arem? And how can you say no to that extra rice serving at Padang restaurants?



It is not uncommon to hear the new middle-class Indonesians hitting rice at home after a heavy meal like steak or burgers at Western restaurants. 'If I haven't eaten rice, I don't feel like I have eaten at all,' is their classic excuse.



Yes, it's all in the mind rather than in the stomach.



It is no wonder why today we find more and more Indonesian men, both young and middle age, with bulging stomach. Those are rice guts rather than beer guts. They have more carbohydrate intake than their body can burn, thanks largely to all the rice they eat.



Jokowi doesn't look like most middle-class Indonesian men. He often self-deprecates about his thin figure as orang ndeso, someone who comes straight from a village.



His figure makes him the perfect role model or icon for a government campaign to change the nation's dietary habits to eat less rice, targeting in particular the rising middle class, many of whom continue to eat rice three times a day.



What's the President's secret to stay slim anyway? Perhaps he cares to share it with the nation. No doubt many would even follow suit. After all, we have a president who has already set a few life style trends, including on how to lead a simple life.



What about replacing rice with more fish, now that Jokowi has stopped fishermen from neighboring countries from stealing in our waters? Would that not also befit the maritime nation that we aspire to be? Replacing carbs with protein in our daily diet would be a perfect and healthy way of diversifying away from rice.



Where does this leave the Padang restaurants?



They can and must be part of the solution. For one, they can start serving smaller rice portions. One scoop for takeouts, rather than two.



They can create a greater variety of fish dishes. And they can make their food less spicy and stop us from shouting tambuah ciek (one more).



The writer is senior editor at The Jakarta Post.

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