There may be no more power plants burning coal in Ontario, but it was only a decade ago that the province generated enough electricity from coal to supply three million households.

When the last coal-fired facility was closed in 2014, it capped the single-largest effort to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions in North America.

Now coal-dependent, Alberta is giving it a shot. It is something that would have been unthinkable less than a year ago in a province that wears its fossil-fuel heritage with pride. Depending on the plan, Alberta could set the stage for Canada to become virtually coal-free by 2030 – conceivably earlier.

“From a technical standpoint it’s possible to do by 2025. It’s a timeline that is supportable,” said Benjamin Thibault, director of the energy program at the Pembina Institute, a Calgary-based think tank.

Industry and environmental stakeholders widely expect Alberta will unveil a coal phase-out timeline ahead of the UN climate summit in Paris in December, part of a broader climate strategy that would mark a dramatic shift in the province’s treatment of its heat-trapping emissions.

NDP Premier Rachel Notley set the wheels in motion in May after ending 44 years of Conservative Party rule. She is likely to attend the Paris summit in an effort to rebuild Alberta’s – and to a large degree Canada’s – international reputation on the climate file.

A coal phase-out alone won’t address rising emissions in the oil sands, but environmentalists have long considered it low-hanging fruit on a list that would put the province on a lower-carbon path.

“The direction Alberta is taking is bold,” said Zoë Caron, a senior policy advisor with Clean Energy Canada, a program out of Simon Fraser University that promotes the transition to renewable energy. Caron credited the new government for setting the tone. “It’s really opened the door for everyone to come forward with solutions.”

Among those coming forward are the three publicly traded companies that will be most affected by an accelerated phase-out. TransAlta, Atco Power, and Capital Power own and operate a combined 17 of 18 coal-fired units in Alberta. Together, they are responsible for nearly half of all greenhouse gas emissions in Canada’s electricity sector.

The biggest coal-burner of them, TransAlta, brings experience to the table. Four years ago, chief executive Dawn Farrell spent days negotiating with state officials for the early closure of the company’s Centralia coal plant in Washington State. An agreement was reached to start shutting down the plant by 2025.

The environmental group Sierra Club helped mediate the discussion. Its Beyond Coal campaign has helped secure the early retirement of 200 coal plants in the United States – roughly 40 per cent of the country’s coal fleet back in 2010. President Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan is expected to accelerate closures.

Farrell, speaking last week at a packed climate summit in Edmonton hosted by Pembina, surprised many in the room by being one of the biggest champions for a coal phase-out.

“We’re working with other generators and government on how to move more quickly on the coal transition, while striking the right balance of job protection, economic growth, affordable electricity, GHG reductions and effective carbon pricing,” said Farrell. “We can do what others say can’t be done here in Alberta.”

TransAlta’s stock has taken a hit since the NDP won power. Its shares have plunged 47 per cent in just six months. Its salvation, however, might just be the early moves it has made into renewables.

The company owns the biggest wind power fleet in Canada, and is the largest hydropower producer in Alberta. Last month, it purchased its first solar power plant, and it has started to dabble in energy storage. All of these plus natural gas assets fall under a publicly traded yieldco called TransAlta Renewables, which has a market capitalization of $2.1 billion.

TransAlta, which currently has a market value of $1.72 billion, owns 77 per cent of TransAlta Renewables. In other words, the market is valuing the parent company almost exclusively on the lower-carbon assets in its yieldco. Coal has become too risky for a growing number of investors.

Atco is following the same path as TransAlta, but it warns of not relying too much on natural gas as a coal replacement. If it does, wrote chief operating officer Siegfried Kiefer in the company’s most recent annual report, “Alberta will not meet its climate change targets.”

Atco is instead proposing a big push into hydropower. It has its sights on three hydro projects that would replace nearly three-quarters of the province’s coal generation capacity within two decades. “It is a once-in-a-generation opportunity and we should not miss it,” Siegfried argued.

Capital Power, meanwhile, has been shopping around a set of its own policy recommendations that include an immediate cap on coal emissions and accelerated coal retirement dates.

“What we’re seeing is electricity companies themselves wanting to move beyond coal,” said Thibault.

Alberta vs. Ontario

In some ways, Alberta will have it easier than Ontario did 10 years ago. The cost of wind and solar today are much more competitively priced, with costs having fallen so much over the past decade that subsidies – beyond a price on carbon – are unnecessary.

Alberta also has the benefit of learning from the failures and successes of other jurisdictions that have made the transition, and the province is eager to shed its reputation as an environmental laggard as the climate action imperative grows stronger.

“The path has already been paved for Alberta to catch up,” said Marlo Raynolds, executive vice-president at Calgary-based BluEarth Renewables and a federal Liberal candidate in Alberta.

On the other hand, Ontario was less dependent on coal and had the benefit of hydroelectric and nuclear generation assets that Alberta lacks. Ontario Power Generation is also a publicly owned utility, unlike in Alberta, where generation comes from companies operating in a deregulated marketplace and accountable to shareholders.

Coal by the Numbers

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

Coal supplies 15% of Canada’s electricity.

Coal supplies between half and two-thirds of Alberta’s electricity.

Emissions from burning coal for electricity are roughly twice as much compared to using natural gas.

A study from the Carbon Tracker Institute revealed that coal producers have collectively lost three-quarters of their value and have been forced to close down nearly 300 mines over the past five years.

“In the past five years, largely thanks to policy leadership in Ontario, Canadian utilities have shut down 4,600 megawatts worth of coal power plants. That’s the equivalent of taking 8.7 million vehicles off the nation’s roads,” according to Clean Energy Canada’s “Tracking the Energy Revolution” report.

Coal and Investors

California legislators passed a bill earlier this month that requires two state pension funds worth $476 billion (U.S.) to divest their coal holdings by July 2017. Norway’s parliament, meanwhile, recently voted to reduce the amount of coal investments in its $880 billion (U.S.) sovereign wealth fund.

Coal and Health

Results of a Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards report released in September indicate that Alberta’s Red Deer region exceeds national limits for ozone and particulate pollution and four other regions in the province are approaching the limit.

The Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment (CAPE) recently found that air quality in Edmonton is worse than in Toronto, a city five times larger. Pollution from coal results in an increase in premature deaths, hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular ailments, and asthma attacks, according to CAPE.

Coal and Electric Cars

High dependency on coal generation makes Alberta the worst place in Canada to drive an electric car, since battery-powered vehicles are only as clean as the electricity that goes into them. An electric car driven in B.C., Manitoba, Ontario or Quebec will result in 75% to 100% lower emissions compared to a vehicle that runs on gasoline.

Renewables Rising

The rate of job growth in Canada’s clean energy sector is outpacing that of every other sector.

Investment in clean energy generation rose 26 per cent in 2014 compared to the previous year, with growth led by Ontario.

Alberta has the best solar resource in Canada and among the best wind and hydroelectric resources in the country.

For the first half of 2015, renewables – biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar and wind – accounted for 70 per cent of all new generation placed into service in the United States.

This article is part of a series produced in partnership by the Toronto Star and Tides Canada to address a range of pressing climate issues in Canada leading up to the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris, December 2015. Tides Canada is supporting this partnership to increase public awareness and dialogue around the impacts of climate change on Canada’s economy and communities. The Toronto Star has full editorial control and responsibility to ensure stories are rigorously edited in order to meet its editorial standards.

Read more about: