It’s been over a week since demonetisation, but the queues and the chaos continue. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose decision to scrap ₹500 and ₹1,000 rupee notes has been intensely criticised, has asked for patience.

“I have asked the country for just 50 days,” Modi said during a speech in Goa on Sunday. “Brothers and sisters, give me 50 days.”

New notes are being printed, officials say, and those notes are being distributed to banks and ATMs as fast as possible. But will that happen in 50 days? The answer is, probably not.

Printing new notes could take about six months

Here’s the math. The new rupee notes are being printed at four mints. Together, they can print about three billion notes per month.

The mints have to replace about ₹14 trillion taken out of circulation — roughly equal to the gross domestic product of Portugal. If half that value is printed in ₹500 rupee notes and the other half is printed in ₹2,000 rupee notes, the mints will have to print around 17.5 billion total notes to replace the value of the notes taken out of circulation.