After the cessation of hostilities over the Christmas break, the Brexit battle in the Conservative party is swinging back into action as MPs return to Westminster and Theresa May prepares for the defining moment of her premiership so far: the “meaningful vote” on her withdrawal deal due 12 days from now.



But there is little sign that she has any more chance in the coming days of winning over rebel Tory MPs and the Democratic Unionist Party than she did before the holiday. After numerous telephone calls between the prime minister and EU leaders over the last two weeks, and meetings with the DUP, May’s close allies privately concede they are on course to lose the vote set for Jan. 15.

Now May and her top lieutenants have begun gaming how they could bring the deal back for another vote — or even more than one vote. One Downing Street insider suggested to BuzzFeed News that they would put it to MPs as many times as it took to secure a majority. “If we have to have the vote 30 times, we will,” they said. Other senior Tories are suggesting the vote could be delayed again.

To win back rebel Tory MPs if the deal is defeated in the first vote, senior ministers are urging May to consider setting a date for her to step down after Britain leaves the EU in March. The hope is that would convince rebels that a new leader would be in place by the beginning of the future relationship negotiations with the EU. BuzzFeed News understands a cabinet minister first raised the idea in a meeting with May’s chief of staff Gavin Barwell towards the end of last year.

Despite optimism in Downing Street that rebels’ minds could be changed ahead of the vote, Conservative Eurosceptics held a series of New Year conference calls this week in which they reiterated their determination to vote down the withdrawal agreement.

Senior members of the Brexiteers’ European Research Group calculated in phone calls over the last three days that at least 40 of their MPs will vote against the deal unless May secures a clause allowing the UK to unilaterally leave the backstop.

The estimate suggests chief whip Julian Smith could succeed in turning dozens of the 115 Tory MPs who previously said they could not back the plan, but still fall well short of a majority when the deal comes to the Commons on Jan. 15.

It is the working assumption in Whitehall that “the deal won’t get through first time,” but that the government could try to win a later vote, a ministerial aide agreed.