The average recession chance of all those surveyed was 21 per cent. Across those sampled, the average for expected growth is just under 2.2 per cent. Mr Koukoulas said accommodative monetary policy, a slight loosening of fiscal policy from mid-year and the rebuilding of fire-affected areas all pointed to the economy improving through 2020. Interest rates Almost every economist is tipping the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates ultra-low through this year and into 2021.

Just one economist, the Melbourne Institute's Guay Lim, believes the RBA will still have official interest rates at 0.75 per cent following its June meeting. All others, including Mr Koukoulas and Mr Anthony, reckon the RBA will have the cash rate down to at least 0.5 per cent. Loading University of Melbourne economist Neville Norman, who has taken part in the Scope survey since its inception 43 years ago, believes the RBA will take the cash rate to zero. Many expect the lower cash rate to be accompanied by some form of quantitative easing although Mr Anthony is one who thinks it would fail to work. "A quantitative easing policy undertaken by the RBA would be like panning for fool's gold. It could not impact the Australian dollar as it would be overwhelmed by international capital flows but it might further exacerbate domestic real property prices by impacting discount rates," he said.

By the middle of 2021, Scope participants largely believe the RBA will have cut the cash rate to 0.25 per cent. But one, Monash University's Jakob Marsden, is tipping the central bank to have moved to 2.5 per cent in what would be one of the quickest tightenings of monetary policy on record. Housing Industry Association economist Angela Lillicrap expects the RBA won't go any lower than 0.25 per cent for the foreseeable future. Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video "Without any exogenous shocks impacting the economy, the RBA will hold the cash rate at this point for one to two years," she said. AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver also expects the rate to be held at this level for a year. Economic growth

Overall, those surveyed are more pessimistic about the economy than both the RBA and the federal Treasury. The RBA, in its latest forecasts released in November, tipped the economy to expand by 2.8 per cent this calendar year. The main driving force is a 6.2 per cent jump in business investment, a 2.3 per cent increase in real household disposable income and a 2.4 per cent lift in household spending. Westpac chief economist Bill Evans maintains the Morrison government should pull forward its stage two personal income tax cuts. Credit:James Brickwood It believes wages growth will be steady at 2.3 per cent over this year and next, while inflation will continue to run below its own target band of 2 to 3 per cent. In the mid-year budget update, Treasury downgraded growth expectations to 2.25 per cent in 2019-20 before a lift to 2.75 per cent in 2020-21.

It forecast housing investment to shrink by 9 per cent this financial year, household consumption to expand by 1.75 per cent and wages growth to average 2.5 per cent over the next two years. Loading Budget surplus Scope participants largely expect the Morrison government to produce its long-pledged budget surplus despite the risks facing the economy. The government is forecasting a $5 billion surplus this financial year and $6.1 billion surplus in 2020-21. But Westpac chief economist Bill Evans maintains the government should bring forward the second stage of its personal income tax cuts in a bid to quicken economic growth.

"Based on the latest mid-year budget update, this policy is likely to push the budget back into a modest deficit," he said. "But the impact on confidence for both consumers and business will be more stimulatory than announcing surpluses or modest investment tax incentives which sustain the surplus." Among those surveyed, the average expected lift in wages is 2.2 per cent while the average for unemployment is 5.3 per cent. The RBA has signalled it believes the jobless rate needs to fall to at least 4.5 per cent to put upward pressure on wages. 'A quantitative easing policy undertaken by the RBA would be like panning for fool's gold.' Industry Super economist Stephen Anthony ACTU economist Margaret McKenzie believes the jobless rate could reach 6 per cent by year's end. She said the recent bushfires were likely to see people leaving affected communities as they sought work in a development that would hamper rebuilding efforts.

"It should be a major concern that the current bushfires are likely to initially increase unemployment by at least a percentage point and take a percentage point off what is sluggish GDP growth over the next couple of quarters with the potential for inflation," she said. Ms McKenzie expects annual inflation will reach 3.5 per cent, the only Scope panellist to tip a sharp acceleration in price pressures. Most others are forecasting modest inflation, with Capital Economics' Marcel Theliant thinking it could ease to just 1.3 per cent. Associate Professor Rebecca Cassells from the Curtin Business School is forecasting iron ore to average $US98 a tonne this year, which would deliver a substantial boost to the federal budget. Scope participants struggled last year to predict key economic developments including the high price of Australia's most important export, iron ore, and the collapse in global interest rates. This year, participants on average are tipping iron ore to average $US75 a tonne, although West Australian-based economist Rebecca Cassells is one of the most bullish with a forecast of $US98 a tonne by the end of the year.

On average, the survey has the 10-year Treasury bond rate at 1.14 per cent. Yields reached 0.94 per cent earlier this year on concerns about the coronavirus outbreak. Loading Global outlook Globally, Scope surveys believe China's economy will expand by 5.9 per cent through 2020. If that came to pass, it would be the slowest annual growth for Australia's biggest trading partner since the start of the 1990s. The American economy is tipped to grow by almost 2 per cent with none of the panel expecting it to get to President Donald Trump's original promise of 4 per cent growth.