Public Policy Polling

®

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 Phone: 888 621-6988 Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com

From: Anniken Williams, Public Policy Polling

®

To: Craig Varoga & Alixandria Lapp at Patriot Majority USA

Subject: Congressional Republicans Vulnerable in Upcoming Re-Elections

Date: February 21, 2018

Thank you for giving us the opportunity to poll in House districts where Members of Congress might be persuasion targets on ke y issues as the House of Representatives kicks off the 2018 legislative session. Our new surve y finds that 9 incumbent Members of Congress from California, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Texas, and Washington could be vulnerable in their upcoming re-elections, and they should be open to listening to their constituents who have strong concerns about both the recently-passed tax reform law and changes to he alth care laws. Also, 5 districts in California, Florida, Kansas, and Michigan, have upcoming races that look to be quite competitive. Furthermore, the Republican President Donald Trump and Speaker of the House Paul Ryan are both unpopular. Finally, it is important to note that Independent voters in these districts prefer Democratic candidates to Republican candidates for Congress nearly unaminously.

CA-25

In

California’s 25

th

Congressional District, Republican incumbent Steve Knight has an approval rating of 36%, and 44% disapprove of his job performance. President Trump has an approval rating of 40 % and a disapproval rating of 55% in Knight

’s district.

Speaker Paul Ryan is also unpopular with 33% of voters saying they approve of the job he is doing and a majority (56%) responding that they disapprove. These percentages, along with a hypothetical matchup between Knight (42%) and a Democratic candidate (44%), indicate that Knight is quite vulnerable in h is upcoming re-election. In addition to the tax plan being unpop ular in his district, a majority of voters (83%) indicated the y have major (64%) or minor (19%) concerns after Knight v oted for a health care plan that allows insurance companies to impose an unfair age t ax on people over 50. After voters were given more information about the tax and health care plans, 43% said they would vote for Knight and 45

% said they would vote for h is “Democratic

challenger

.”

Support Oppose Recently-passed Tax Reform Law* 36%