Mexico has been plunged into uncertainty after the US elected as its next president a man who has described the country’s people as “rapists”, pledged to expel millions of undocumented immigrants, tear up trade treaties and build a wall between the two nations.

The peso was the first victim of Donald Trump’s victory, plunging 14% within a few hours of polls closing, reaching an all-time low of 21 pesos to the US dollar in the early hours of Wednesday morning.



Ernesto Carmona from the University of the Incarnate Word – a business university in San Antonio, Texas – warned that bilateral trade would be the next area to suffer, especially if the president-elect makes good on a promise to overturn the North American Free Trade Agreement.

“We’ve already seen the first consequence with the peso, next will be exports. If Trump fulfills his pledges to withdraw or renegotiate the free trade treaties between the two countries, it will be a total disaster for the Mexican economy as 80% of our exports go to the US,” Carmona told the Guardian.

Despite a slight rally, analysts warned the peso could fall much further.

In the run-up to the election, the Central Bank governor, Agustín Carstens, had been among the most vocal critics of Trump in Mexico, calling him a category 5 “hurricane” for the economy.

On Wednesday morning, Carstens and the finance minister, José Antonio Meade, held an early morning press conference to try to calm nerves and prevent panic currency sales by reassuring markets that Mexico’s economy was sufficiently robust to withstand future uncertainties.

“We will take the necessary measures,” Meade said. “Mexico is in a position of strength to confront.”

But neither the markets nor analysts were convinced, and the peso fell slightly within minutes of the press conference.

Carmona added: “They may try to minimize the impact by saying the economy is solid and stable, but it’s not true. If Trump closes the door to Mexican imports it will break the economy.”

Mexicans featured prominently throughout Trump’s ugly campaign discourse, triggering widespread anger towards him among ordinary people, who took out their frustration on Trump piñatas and effigies.



Trump launched his campaign with a promise to build a wall along the 2,000-mile border between the two countries, and make Mexico pay for it – possibly by confiscating the $20bn in remittances sent home each year by Mexicans in the US.

Former Mexican president Vicente Fox was widely praised earlier this year for saying that Mexico would never pay “for that fucking wall”.

In contrast, President Enrique Peña Nieto was widely criticised for not publicly condemning the proposed wall during a joint press conference with Trump during his surprise visit to Mexico City in September.

Mexico’s foreign minister, Claudia Ruiz Massieu, said on Wednesday that while there had been daily communication between the government and Trump’s campaign team since then, Mexico would not finance the project.

“Paying for a wall is not part of our vision,” she said.

Trump’s visit helped pushed Peña Nieto’s popularity to a record low, and in a series of Twitter posts early this morning, Peña Nieto acknowledged Trump’s victory while avoiding congratulating him directly.

“I congratulate the USA for its electoral process and I reiterate to @realDonaldTrump the disposition to work together to help the bilateral relationship,” he wrote.

“Mexico and the US are friends, partners and allies, which should continue cooperating for the competitiveness and the development of North America.”

Elena Poniatowska, a prominent author and journalist, told the Guardian she was apprehensive for her country – and the millions of Mexicans living in the US.



“We are entering a reign of money. We have no idea what is going to happen. I fear for the sake of my country, the whole panorama and way of life for us all will change,” she said.

As the vote got under way yesterday, many Mexicans were confident that Hillary Clinton would win.



“She has to win, even though I don’t like all her policies towards Latin America. Anyone is better than Trump, he is the devil, what a vulgar man,” said Marta Varga, a shop attendant.

Yesterday’s front page of La Jornada – a leading progressive daily – had boldly claimed: “In a few hours, Hillary’s triumph is almost a reality.”

But as Clinton’s defeat became inevitable, the streets of Mexico City were eerily quiet and celebration plans at the emblematic Angel of Independence monument were shelved.

David Merchant, 37, who is married to an American, said he watched the results unfolding with “horror, disbelief and shock”.

“As part of a binational gay couple I am very worried about whether the xenophobic remarks made by the candidates will become American policies of the future. As a Mexican I am most worried about the implications for the economy, immigration and what will happen to the parents of Mexican Americans who Trump has said he will deport.”

A central plank of Trump’s immigration plan was the deportation of the estimated 11 million undocumented migrants currently living in the US, and then repatriating the “good ones” back to the US again.

Mexico has more than five million citizens living without regular papers in the US – making up around half of the entire undocumented population.

The level of immigration from Mexico to the US has been steadily falling over recent years, while record numbers have been returning amid better economic prospects at home. The pattern could reverse if Mexico’s economy tanks, forcing huge numbers to risk crossing an increasingly hostile border in hope of finding work.

In a statement on Wednesday, the US ambassador, Roberta Jacobson, reached for a conciliatory tone: “Change sometimes brings anxiety, but as I have said many times I am confident our relationship is firmly rooted in shared values and interests. That relationship will remain strong, to the benefit of both countries,” she said.

But many in Mexico found it hard to find a positive side to Trump’s victory.

Maggie Ventura, 26, from San Luis Potosí, recently returned to Mexico after living for 15 years as an undocumented migrant with her family in the US.

“I am in shock, what happened to my country? I had refused to accept that Trump was a mirror of the United States, I refused to accept that he represented the majority and now it is so painful to realize that it is racist and full of hate,” she said. “I cannot accept that a man like this is going to lead a place I once called home.”