Who would have predicted that the Republican race for president, with 17 candidates, would end before the one-on-one race on the Democratic side? Or that the Democratic convention in Philadelphia would be more unpredictable than the GOP convention in Cleveland?

This cycle, there have been a lot of poor predictions, including some made by me.

What matters now is how candidates and campaigns adapt to a roiling political environment.

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Donald Trump Donald John TrumpUS reimposes UN sanctions on Iran amid increasing tensions Jeff Flake: Republicans 'should hold the same position' on SCOTUS vacancy as 2016 Trump supporters chant 'Fill that seat' at North Carolina rally MORE earned the Republican nomination, winning more votes than any previous Republican presidential candidate.

The Republican primary effectively ended May 3, when Trump handily won the Indiana primary over Sen. Ted Cruz Rafael (Ted) Edward CruzVideo of Lindsey Graham arguing against nominating a Supreme Court justice in an election year goes viral Sunday shows preview: Justice Ginsburg dies, sparking partisan battle over vacancy before election Democrat on Graham video urging people to 'use my words against me': 'Done' MORE (R-Texas), forcing Cruz to drop out. Kamikaze pilot Gov. John Kasich (R-Ohio) sensibly followed by dropping out the next day.

In the month since that has transpired, Trump's campaign has done some good things:

These are helpful developments.

But while the Democrats have been bitterly divided for the past month, Trump has mostly squandered his unexpected head start.

He continues to commit unforced errors:

These are errors of judgment, temperament and strategy.

Why isn't Trump building a strong general election campaign, with a focus on the battleground states that will determine the election?

Why isn't Trump narrowly focused on the Rust Belt, where his populist and nationalist message, especially on trade, will resonate?

Why isn't Trump raising massive money online, given his huge platform and large crowds?

Why isn't Trump growing as a candidate, showing discipline, restraint, intelligence and substance?

Trump's campaign needs to show growth for its candidate. He needs to unveil a serious platform on the major issues facing the country. He needs a stable of surrogates that can defend him on television effectively.

But most important, Trump needs to stop talking about things only he cares about. He needs to focus instead on what voters care about.

This election will be a "change" election: Whether Trump represents positive change, or a risky choice, will determine who wins.

Three factors will greatly impact this election:

Will Hillary Clinton be indicted over her email scandal? If not, does the FBI forward a criminal referral and if overruled by the attorney general, are there massive resignations? Does the Republican convention, with the revelation of Trump's vice presidential choice, effectively market Trump to a large national audience in a way that broadens his support? Does Trump pass the commander-in-chief test in the televised debates?

Successful answers on questions No. 2 and 3 will require the candidate and the campaign to significantly raise their game.

Clinton is a terrible candidate. She's been taken into the bottom of the ninth inning by a 74-year-old socialist who cannot perform simple math.

She is under FBI investigation for both mishandling classified information and for "public corruption" relating to the Clinton Foundation, as Fox News reported in January.

The GOP should be able to win this election.

Can Trump begin running a serious campaign by demonstrating discipline, growth, substance and leadership?

The last month has not been encouraging.

Mackowiak is syndicated columnist; an Austin, Texas-based Republican consultant; and a former Capitol Hill and George W. Bush administration aide.