A few months ago Tony Abbott was sure he had Bill Shorten’s measure.

The Labor leader’s confidence was ebbing by the day and huge challenges loomed – his appearance “in the dock” at the royal commission into trade union corruption, the ugly reminders in the ABC’s Killing Season and his party’s national conference which was already shaping as a treacherous Labor family outing.

Labor conference backs binding vote on same-sex marriage after two terms Read more

The shock victory of the British conservatives had cemented the Australian Coalition’s certainly that a similar strategy would see off Shorten’s Labor despite Abbott’s disastrous first year – an attack focussed on a weak leader and Labor’s alleged incompetence and predilection for taxing the rich and helping the very poor and ignoring the hard-working middle.



Pollster Mark Textor spelled it out in an interview on the ABC soon after he jetted home from the UK campaign: “The first few years for the [UK conservative government] were very, very difficult, but eventually they fine-tuned their message to focus on hardworking families and rewarding them and particularly rewarding through tax incentives businesses that want to expand and to innovate and eventually what that did is expose the paucity of [UK Labor leader Ed] Miliband’s approach, which was just to appeal to his core vote and say no all the time.

“Miliband didn’t show that he’d changed ... he moved away from the middle. He and the media in the UK were obsessed with the very poor and the very rich, instead of that which makes a society strong, which is the middle,” he said.



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The Coalition’s certainty grew as Shorten’s personal popularity plummeted and Labor’s consistent lead in the party polling began to narrow. Their second budget was all about “hard-working families” and small businesses that wanted to expand. Sound familiar? The Liberals made attack ads targeting Shorten’s “weakness” and Labor’s “baggage”. The Labor inner circle began to spring leaks, and even though new rules make it near-impossible to depose a Labor leader, the speculation started.



But Shorten has used Labor’s conference to claw back some authority. He insisted that political pragmatism trump his party’s genuine concerns about the legality and humanity of boat towbacks, giving him some chance of neutralising the Coalition’s attack.



Despite not yet having any policy detail to announce, Shorten looked like a leader who believed in something when pronouncing Labor’s commitment to credible climate policy and vowing to stare down the scare campaign, a leader who was prepared to take a political risk to act on his belief.



And on same-sex marriage, the biggest split inside Labor was about the best way to achieve legalisation – not, as is the case in the Coalition, about whether it should happen or not. In an 11th hour deal, Shorten persuaded the party’s left to wait until the term of government after next before Labor parliamentarians would be bound to vote for same-sex marriage, if it has not been legislated by then. The left had the numbers for the proposition that Labor MPs and senators be bound to vote pro same-sex marriage in the next term of parliament, but compromised in deference to the wishes of the leader.



Sure, the conference put Labor’s divisions on display. Many Labor supporters were dismayed at the asylum policy compromise. But the disagreements were civilised and I suspect that, to the extent they paid attention at all, the voting public may agree with Labor president Mark Butler, that it was evidence of a party with “a pulse”.



ALP conference 2015: same-sex marriage conscience vote for two terms, binding after that – as it happened Read more

Tony Abbott has begun the carbon tax scare campaign once more with great feeling, but he is also about to have to explain how he will pay for his own long-term climate change promises. And his backing for Speaker Bronwyn Bishop over her outrageous travel claims may have reminded the electorate they’re also not entirely sure the Coalition has the ordinary person’s interests at heart.



Labor’s convincing poll lead continues. But Shorten, like Abbott, remains deeply unpopular. Neither is seen as exciting or authentic. Abbott says the line of the day three times to make sure we’ve heard it. Shorten often seems to forget what it is.



But this year’s Labor conference has shown Shorten may yet be able to shift voters’ perceptions, may really take on Abbott’s sledgehammer approach on carbon pricing, may not be as weak or as easily categorised an easybeat as the Coalition had imagined. Abbott’s confidence may have been premature.

