Last year’s article on the Lions was somewhat negative . Detroit went 4-12 in 2012, but the Lions are going to win more games this year. This is the type of article that Jason Lisk Brian Burke , or Aaron Schatz could write in their sleep. But I’m writing it while watching TV, writing a more complicated article, working out, taking out the trash, and tweeting. Let’s see Lisk do that!

The Lions went 3-9 in games decided by 8 or fewer points last year, giving them the most losses and the worst winning percentage of all teams in one-possession games. While this might imply that the Lions lack the mental fortitude to win close games, you might recall that in 2011, the Minnesota Vikings (2-9) and the Indianapolis Colts (1-7) were the worst two teams in such situations and then made the playoffs last year.

Another way to convey similar information is to look at each team’s Pythagorean record, which is calculated based on a team’s points scored and points allowed and is a better predictor of future winning percentage than past winning percentage. The table below shows each team’s number of wins, points scored and allowed, and number of Pythagorean wins for 2012, using 2.57 as my exponent(which produced the best fit for recent years). The table is sorted by the difference between actual wins and Pythagorean wins:



Team W PF PA P_W Diff IND 11 357 387 7.2 3.8 ATL 13 419 299 11.3 1.7 HOU 12 416 331 10.3 1.7 TEN 6 330 471 4.6 1.4 MIN 10 379 348 8.9 1.1 STL 7.5 299 348 6.5 1 NYJ 6 281 375 5.2 0.8 WAS 10 436 388 9.2 0.8 DAL 8 376 400 7.4 0.6 BAL 10 398 344 9.5 0.5 GNB 11 433 336 10.5 0.5 ARI 5 250 357 4.6 0.4 DEN 13 481 289 12.6 0.4 BUF 6 344 435 5.7 0.3 PHI 4 280 444 3.7 0.3 CIN 10 391 320 10 0 MIA 7 288 317 7 0 OAK 4 290 443 4 0 SFO 11.5 397 273 11.6 -0.1 KAN 2 211 425 2.3 -0.3 NWE 12 557 331 12.7 -0.7 PIT 8 336 314 8.7 -0.7 CAR 7 357 363 7.8 -0.8 TAM 7 389 394 7.9 -0.9 CHI 10 375 277 11 -1 SDG 7 350 350 8 -1 CLE 5 302 368 6 -1 JAX 2 255 444 3.1 -1.1 NOR 7 461 454 8.2 -1.2 NYG 9 429 344 10.2 -1.2 SEA 11 412 245 12.7 -1.7 DET 4 372 437 6.4 -2.4

As you can see, no team undershot their Pythagorean record quite like the Lions. Even with all the problems Detroit had last year, they still played like a 6.4-win team, and not a 4-win team. The Lions certainly have the talent to rebound in 2013 — Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford, Ndamukong Suh, and now Reggie Bush and Ziggy Ansah were top-five picks, while Brandon Pettigrew was the first tight end selected in 2009 and Riley Reiff (2012) and Nick Fairley (2011) were the second players drafted at their positions. But it’s not just raw talent and underachieving relative to their Pythagorean record that points to a rebound in 2013.

If we examine fumble recovery data, Detroit again looks like a team that suffered some seriously bad luck in 2012. I broke down fumble recovery data by fumble type last year, and if I had the time, I would do that for each individual team in 2012. But subject to that caveat, recovering fumbles isn’t really a skill (I haven’t researched whether forcing fumbles is a skill, either, although I’ll leave that question for another day). But over a small sample size, teams will have radically different fumble recovery rates.

Let me explain the table below. The Redskins had 26 fumbles in 2012, but lost only six of them. Based on the league average fumble recovery rate in 2012 of 48.5%, that means Washington recovered 6.6 more Redskins fumbles than we would expect (subject to the caveat above). Meanwhile, Washington opponents fumbled 17 times and lost ten of them to the Redskins. Based on that 48.5% rate, this means Washington recovered 1.8 more of their opponent’s fumbles than we would expect, giving them a total of 8.4 more fumbles recovered relative to expectation. The final column means of the 43 total fumbles in Redskins games, Washington recovered 69.8% of them.

Rank Team FUM FUM LOST FL vs. Exp OPP FUM OPP FUM LOST FR vs. Exp Total FR vs. Exp Fum Rec% 1 WAS 26 6 6.6 17 10 1.8 8.4 69.8% 2 SFO 26 8 4.6 21 11 0.8 5.4 61.7% 3 CHI 20 8 1.7 35 20 3 4.7 58.2% 4 HOU 12 4 1.8 23 14 2.8 4.7 62.9% 5 CAR 22 10 0.7 18 12 3.3 3.9 60% 6 ATL 9 4 0.4 16 11 3.2 3.6 64% 7 JAX 20 9 0.7 17 11 2.8 3.5 59.5% 8 NOR 13 5 1.3 19 11 1.8 3.1 59.4% 9 BAL 14 5 1.8 23 12 0.8 2.6 56.8% 10 CIN 19 10 -0.8 26 16 3.4 2.6 55.6% 11 CLE 22 8 2.7 25 12 -0.1 2.5 55.3% 12 NYG 13 6 0.3 25 14 1.9 2.2 55.3% 13 TAM 16 6 1.8 16 8 0.2 2 56.3% 14 ARI 25 13 -0.9 17 11 2.8 1.9 54.8% 15 OAK 22 10 0.7 14 8 1.2 1.9 55.6% 16 NYJ 32 18 -2.5 16 12 4.2 1.8 54.2% 17 PIT 33 16 0 19 10 0.8 0.8 51.9% 18 SDG 24 11 0.6 29 14 -0.1 0.6 50.9% 19 NWE 14 7 -0.2 42 21 0.6 0.4 50% 20 MIN 21 11 -0.8 23 12 0.8 0 50% 21 DAL 20 10 -0.3 18 9 0.3 0 50% 22 SEA 16 8 -0.2 27 13 -0.1 -0.3 48.8% 23 STL 24 8 3.6 17 4 -4.2 -0.6 48.8% 24 IND 21 9 1.2 11 3 -2.3 -1.1 46.9% 25 GNB 16 8 -0.2 18 5 -3.7 -4 38.2% 26 TEN 21 12 -1.8 15 5 -2.3 -4.1 38.9% 27 MIA 25 13 -0.9 23 6 -5.2 -6 37.5% 28 DEN 22 14 -3.3 23 8 -3.2 -6.5 35.6% 29 DET 24 16 -4.4 19 6 -3.2 -7.6 32.6% 30 KAN 26 17 -4.4 19 6 -3.2 -7.6 33.3% 31 PHI 37 22 -4 21 5 -5.2 -9.2 34.5% 32 BUF 23 17 -5.8 26 9 -3.6 -9.5 30.6% Average 21.2 10.3 0 21.2 10.3 0 0 50.0%

The Lions recovered just 32.6% of the fumbles that occurred in Detroit games, and 7.6 fewer fumbles than we would expect based on random chance. Give the Lions 8 fewer fumbles, and that 3-9 record in close games probably turns around very quickly. Detroit may have had the 5th pick in the 2013 Draft, but Vegas views them as the 17th best team in 2013. That seems much more in line with my view of the Lions after writing this post.

Previous “Random Perspective On” Articles:

AFC East: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans

AFC West: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins

NFC North: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC West: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams