Ministers have been forced to reassure consumers and business that the latest changes to the government’s flagship energy market reforms will deal with any supply problems, illustrating how desperate matters have become

“Keeping the lights on” is supposed to be the primary duty of energy policy: for good reason.

Blackouts are not just difficult for consumers, but dangerous. Our basic infrastructure, from streetlighting to communications and home appliances, is entirely reliant on a dependable electricity supply, and businesses from retailers and offices to steelworks and food processors would be useless without it.

That is why the idea of blackouts is so incendiary, and why the government chose to make its “non-negotiable” commitment to keeping the lights on today. It was reacting to the closure of two power stations and the fears raised in some sections of the media that this could result in blackouts.

“The [regulated] capacity market [for electricity] has driven down costs and secured energy at the lowest possible price for billpayers, but I’m taking further action to tackle the legacy of under-investment and ensure our country’s long-term energy security,” said Amber Rudd, energy and climate change secretary. “By buying more capacity earlier we will protect consumers and businesses from avoidable spikes in energy costs.”

But a Department of Energy and Climate Change (Decc) spokeswoman confirmed to the Guardian that the department had no firm assessment of whether power cuts were likely in the next five years.



In reality, the danger of widespread or prolonged blackouts is remote. Some small blackouts happen every year for local reasons, such as roadworks, a temporary failure, or flooding. These are easily manageable, and have little impact.

The systems in place to avoid bigger blackouts include ramping up older and seldom-used generation capacity, called “supplemental balancing reserve”, managing power dynamically across the grid so that areas of generation are joined up with consumption, and - most of all - taking power away from big energy users.

Called “demand-side response”, this means energy-intensive companies, such as steelworks and factories, signing contracts with the National Grid that they will use less power at times of national need. It means that the lights are very unlikely to go out.

National Grid said: “For next winter, we’ll continue to work closely with industry, Decc and Ofgem and have already concluded successful tenders for an extra 3.6GW of supplemental balancing reserve [from seldom-used power plants] for the winter of 2016-17, as well as continuing to focus on growing demand-side response activities.”

For the businesses in question, however, this is another costly management headache.

Claire Jakobsson, head of energy and environment policy at the EEF organisation of manufacturers, told the Guardian: “Demand-side response can play its part in managing the grid, but it is imperative that any agreements made with industry are on a voluntary basis. Furthermore, it must not be in place of a credible strategy for delivering new [power] plants and security of supply should be a top priority.”

Keeping otherwise redundant power stations at the ready and compensating big energy users for the costs of being flexible is also an expensive way of managing energy.

Those costs raise consumer energy bills, and are likely to continue to do so. About £1.50 will be added to each consumer bill this year solely to maintain “last resort” power from plants that have been mothballed, National Grid said. Demand-side response adds several pounds more.

Even if blackouts are unlikely, the UK’s energy sector is in disarray. There’s the closure of power stations with contracts to generate energy. The failure to build new gas-fired plants. The extension of the life of existing nuclear power plants, and doubts over plans for two new reactors. The tumbling oil price which has triggered thousands of job losses. The damages inflicted on the renewable energy sector by abrupt policy reversals.

Some of these problems are economic in origin, such as shutting old coal-fired power stations which no longer make a profit, and the failure to build gas-fired power stations when the use of gas as stand-by generation makes its economics tricky. They are also in part created by government policy, however. No part of the energy system is unscathed. And these ructions follow on years of mis-selling scandals and alarm at profit-taking by the “ big six”, which have shaken consumer confidence.

The latest announcement of changes to the government’s flagship energy market reforms, which only became fully operational last year, illustrate how desperate matters have become, forcing ministerial reassurances to consumers and business. Rudd insisted: “Ensuring that our families and businesses have secure energy supplies they can rely on now and in the future is not negotiable and I’ll take no risks with this.”

Ofgem also moved to reassure consumers, but with a veiled warning to the industry. A spokesman told the Guardian: “National Grid has already procured 3.6GW of reserve for 2016-17, and the additional capacity market auction will provide further incentives for generators to be available to help secure supplies. However there is no room for complacency. Energy companies must be vigilant this winter.”