Support for Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals in the Kitchener-Waterloo byelection next month has shrunk to 30 per cent, but the party appears to have a stronger chance of winning a seat in Vaughan, two new polls suggest.

The Liberals have dropped nine points in Kitchener-Waterloo since an early May poll found the party had a strong lead over the Progressive Conservatives and New Democrats. That poll was conducted soon after then Kitchener-Waterloo MPP Elizabeth Witmer quit her Progressive Conservative seat to become chair of the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board.

The Tories are at 34 per cent support, the NDP at 30 per cent and the Greens at 4 per cent, according to Forum Research, which conducted a 772-person telephone survey in Kitchener-Waterloo Saturday and Sunday.

“Our earliest polls in this riding showed the Liberals with a healthy lead,” said Forum president Lorne Bozinoff. “We saw that turn into a tie with the PCs, and now they’re in the lead. This is the way a successful campaign grows.”

The poll has a margin of error of 3.53 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Bozinoff suggested Tory candidate Tracey Weiler, a mother, former RIM executive and Wilfrid Laurier University instructor, has galvanized Conservatives in the riding, which includes RIM headquarters and Wilfrid Laurier. The Conservatives, however, polled weakly among female voters at 29 per cent support.

Despite gains for the PCs, leader Tim Hudak is stuck at 25 per cent approval, compared with 49 per cent for NDP Leader Andrea Horwath and 33 per cent for McGuinty.

Those ratings could be key as the Liberals head into a Sept. 6 byelection looking to maintain its 51 seats, excluding Speaker Dave Levac, in the Legislature. The Conservatives hold 36 seats and the NDP has 17.

The McGuinty government announced Monday a plan to support laid-off Waterloo Region technology workers by creating an “action centre” for career counselling and creating more space in entrepreneurship or business programs at the University of Waterloo and Wilfrid Laurier.

In Vaughan, also going to the polls on Sept. 6, the Liberals are hoping to preserve the seat vacated by Liberal MPP and former finance minister Greg Sorbara, who stepped down Aug. 1.

A Forum poll conducted in the riding found the Liberals at 47 per cent support, a 7 per cent increase from a poll conducted in the days following Sorbara’s resignation.

The Tories dropped to 36 per cent support from 41 per cent while the NDP fell to a paltry 9 per cent from 15 per cent.

In the earlier poll, results were tight with the PCs at 41 per cent support and the Liberals at 40.

The nomination of Steve Del Duca, a former executive assistant to Sorbara, appears to have boosted Liberal results in the riding, Bozinoff said. Del Duca’s PC opponent, Tony Genco, is a former Liberal who lost a federal byelection to Conservative Julian Fantino last year.

“It’s probably due to the quality of the candidates,” Bozinoff said. “The one difference from two or three weeks ago is we now have the candidates’ names.”

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Conversely, McGuinty dropped to 31 per cent approval from 32 per cent, while Hudak jumped five points to 29 per cent from 24, according to Forum, which surveyed 327 Vaughan residents on Saturday and Sunday. Horwath earned top approval with 32 per cent.

That poll has a margin of error of 5.42 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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