The Toronto Maple Leafs 2015/16 regular season is slowly coming to its conclusion. While the action on the ice may be at an end, the action off the ice is just beginning. One of the most important signings for the Leafs this off-season is restricted free agent Morgan Rielly. Rielly has shown over the last three years that he is a top-four calibre, offensive defenseman who enjoys playing high-event hockey. When assessing players similar to Rielly and the contracts that they signed after their entry-level deal, it’s clear that Rielly deserves a contract of five to six years at $5 million AAV, or a bridge deal of two years at ~$3 million AAV. The former is more likely than the latter because of the precedent set by comparable players.

Morgan Rielly: An Offensive Defenseman

The above HERO chart emphasizes key characteristics of Rielly’s play over his entire NHL career, most notably his strong offensive ability and defensive deficiencies. Rielly plays high-event hockey, meaning that shot attempts are continually exchanged between teams when he is on the ice. This can be seen through his Corsi For/60 Relative to Teammates (CF60 RelTM) and Corsi Against/60 Relative to Teammates (CA60 RelTM), which are both very high. While it is likely preferred by most NHL teams that a player reduces the amount of chances that are given up while that player is on the ice, Rielly is still playing well enough possession-wise to be used in a top-four role.

Rielly’s point production over his entire NHL career displays his ability to contribute offensively, and this can be concluded from his career rate statistics. The above HERO chart shows that Reilly has produced at a top-four pairing defensemen pace over the duration of his career. This can largely be seen through his points/60 (P60) production, which is a rate statistic that assesses point production and takes into consideration minutes played. Rielly’s career P60 (.81) compares closely to Brent Seabrook (0.81) and Kevin Shattenkirk (0.83) over the last three years. 1 Considering how much younger Rielly is compared to these well-regarded players, he deserves to be seen as a high-upside defensemen capable of performing well offensively.

Comparables to Morgan Rielly

To determine an appropriate dollar value and term for Rielly’s contract, it is important to seek out defensemen who have been in a similar situation in the past. Comparable players must be in a similar situation performance-wise and contract-wise. By analyzing the performance of these players during their first three NHL seasons and the contracts they signed after their entry-level deal, Rielly’s next contract becomes much easier to predict.

The criteria used to determine comparable players is as follows: first three seasons in the NHL (aggregated) have a minimum 85% on Corsica’s Similarity Calculator to Rielly’s first three seasons, min. 1900 minutes played in the NHL after first three seasons, high draft pick (Rd.1 or Rd.2), and drafted within three years of Rielly’s draft year (to ensure contracts are current). 2 The players that fit these specifications include Justin Faulk, Ryan Ellis, Dougie Hamilton, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. 3 These players have previously been in a similar situation to Rielly in terms of performance and contract status, and therefore they provide ideal comparables to help determine Rielly’s next contract.

All data from chart as per Corsica.Hockey . All numbers score and venue-adjusted.

When contrasting Rielly’s performance with his comparables, the results suggest that Rielly fits into the lower half of this group. The three performance measures used to compare are Relative CF% (Rel.CF%), Relative Expected Goal Differential per 60 (Rel.xGD60), and P60. Rel. CF% shows each player’s possession driving ability relative to their team. Rel.xGD60 shows a differential of unblocked shot attempts (for and against) that are weighted based on goal expectancy (according to shot type, distance, angle, rebound, rush shots, and strength state) for each player relative to their team and per every sixty minutes. 4 In sum, Rel.xGD60 helps determine a player’s past expected goal generation based on shot attempts and shot quality. These three statistics account for context and prevent a player from receiving a boost unfairly by external factors (i.e. playing on a strong possession team or producing more because of an increase in ice time rather than efficiency). While it is difficult to account for all external factors, these stats do a pretty good job. As per the results on the above chart, Rielly drives possession less than peers such as Ellis, Hamilton and Ekman-Larsson. In addition, his P60 production and Rel.xGD60 trails this same group of peers by a sizable margin. Despite this, Rielly performs better in all three categories compared to Faulk. These results suggest that Rielly fits into the lower half of this group.

Contracts Awarded to Players Comparable to Morgan Rielly

As per the above image, the contracts awarded to players comparable to Rielly average approximately $4.64 Million. However, Ellis’s contract appears to be an outlier and almost half the dollar amount of the other three contracts listed. This is likely because Ellis had less NHL minutes played (1890 min.) relative to the other comparable players (>2700 NHL minutes played) by the time his contract was up, and therefore had less of a sample size to use for negotiation. Without Ellis’s contract factored into the equation, the three salaries average approximately $5.36 million. Considering Ekman-Larsson and Hamilton’s superior play compared to Rielly, and Rielly out-preforming Faulk, five to six years at $5 million AAV appears to be a reasonable next contract for Rielly assuming the Leafs want to lock him up long-term.

Other Possibilities: Bridge Deal

While the recent trend is to sign defensemen similar to Rielly to long-term deals with a ~$5 million AAV, the Leafs may also consider the less common option of a bridge deal. It is difficult to estimate the dollar figure because Rielly’s direct comparables did not sign bridge deals, however a potential comparable that has signed a bridge deal includes Ryan Murray. While Murray is less similar to Rielly than Rielly’s comparables, he appears to fit the criteria in every other way. 5 Murray signed his contract for two years at $2,825,000 AAV. A bridge deal of two years at ~$3 million AAV appears to be reasonable, but this is a less likely option. This option is less likely because there is a trend towards long-term contracts set by Rielly’s comparable players. In addition, Rielly is less in need of a short-term contract to help display his value considering that he has played over 1000 NHL minutes more than Murray. In sum, a bridge deal of two years at ~$3 million AAV appears to be fair, however this is a less likely option.

Concluding Thoughts

By analyzing Rielly and his comparables, it’s clear that Rielly deserves a contract of five to six years at $5 million AAV. A bridge deal of two years at ~$3 million AAV could suffice as well, however it is much less likely because of contracts signed by comparable players. Rielly has displayed that he is a top-four calibre, offensive defensemen who trades scoring chances. He compares well with other young defensemen such as Justin Faulk, Ryan Ellis, Dougie Hamilton, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, however he appears to be in the lower half of this group based on his performance. A five to six year contract at $5 million AAV appears to be fair dollar value and term for Rielly. In addition, this long-term contract is the most likely outcome when considering contracts signed by his comparables.

Thank you for reading. Please feel free to weigh-in on this discussion by commenting below or tweeting me (@TMLdanalytics).

All Data as of March 27 2016 from Corsica.Hockey. All statistics score and venue-adjusted.

All contract information from General Fanager.

Footnotes

1 minimum 3000 min. played

2 default settings used, TOI minimum 300 min.

3 Ryan Ellis’s Similarity Score was 84.93% and thus .07% under the 85% threshold. Due .07% being such a small difference, I found it appropriate to include him as part of this study.

4 Rel.xGD60 is the differential between rel. xGF/60 and rel.xGA/60

5 84.48% Similarity score, TOI minimum 300 min.