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Think twice before taking these big names too high

By Caleb Barnette, Fantasy Football Observer

The months after the NFL Draft are an exciting time for the dynasty community. Startup drafts are everywhere, and new leagues are forming at an incredible pace. Drafting a new league is one of my personal favorite components of dynasty fantasy football, so this time of year is like Christmas for me. Every time I’m on the clock, it feels like I am opening a present. But, like Christmas presents, some dynasty picks are great, while others can turn out to be disappointing. A look at recent average draft position (ADP) helps identify players that are overvalued and underappreciated. Let’s take a look at a trio of players who are currently being drafted a little early.

*ADP data is based on May’s results on dynastyleaguefootball.com for points per reception, stock format leagues.

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco (ADP 26.83)

The 49ers’ George Kittle is a fantastic fantasy asset, but his current early-third-round ADP and TE2 positional rank are challenging to justify in stock PPR 1TE leagues. From 2010-2018, 18 different TEs scored more than 200 points 31 times. Of those 18 TEs, only seven of them did it more than once – Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham, Tony Gonzalez, and Jason Witten. While Kittle may turn out to be a member of this group, the history of draft capital is against him. All of the tight ends who scored more than 200 points more than once were drafted in the third round or higher of the NFL Draft; Kittle was a fifth-round pick. Also, Kittle’s production was greatly helped by his Yards After Catch (YAC) numbers in 2018. According to nextgenstats.nfl.com, he averaged 10.2 Yards After Catch per reception (YAC/R), while his expected Yards After Catch per reception (xYAC/R) was only 7.0. If Kittle were held to 7.0 YAC in 2018, he would have scored 25 fewer points and finished below Indianapolis tight end Eric Ebron. While a Top-5 dynasty value is more than fair for Kittle, some regression can be expected. In 2019, Kittle’s cost should be closer to the Giants’ Evan Engram (ADP in the 50s) than Ertz.

Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay (ADP 45.00)

When watching the Packers, it is pretty clear that Aaron Jones is the best running back on the team. Conventional wisdom would tell us that the best running back attached to quarterback Aaron Rodgers should have close to an RB1 valuation. However, a lot of Jones’ value has risen, because, like Kittle, he was extremely efficient in 2018. Jones was first in the league in Yards per Carry among running backs who averaged more than 6.25 carries per game, averaging 5.5. However, YPC isn’t consistent year-to-year, as both low and high YPC tend to regress to the mean eventually for quality running backs. Although Jones was first in YPC, he was 38th in the league in Yards Created per Carry (which measures the yards picked up by a player above and beyond what was blocked). In addition, as a fifth-round draft pick, the odds are historically stacked against him. Between 2008 and 2017, Day 3 RBs only produced an average 5.65 startable (Top-24 RB) weeks in their entire career — according to The Analytics of Dynasty. This is probably down mainly to the fact that teams view running backs as replaceable – even if they produce, such as recent fifth-rounders Jordan Howard and Jay Ajayi. Usually the best practice is to take shots in dynasty drafts on Day 3 running backs and trade them for a profit when they hit – not buy them after they already have produced and seen their value spike. Jones could be an anomaly and have continued production, but history says it is unlikely and probably a bad bet.

Hakeem Butler, WR, Arizona (ADP 87.00)

Although the potential of Butler is obvious – he is very clearly physically gifted — there are some significant concerns about his profile. First, and most importantly, he was taken in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. According to data published by The Analytics of Dynasty author Jordan McNamara, Day 3 wide receivers have just a five percent chance of ever producing a Top-24 season, and on average produce only 2.85 startable weeks in their entire careers. Also, Butler wasn’t a consistent or early producer at Iowa State. Breakout age is one of the stronger predictors of WR success in the NFL and Butler didn’t break out until after he turned 21, which puts him in the 30th percentile. Butler also had only three percent of Iowa State’s touches in the red zone last year, despite being 6’5” and with a 96th percentile catch radius. The potential is there for Butler to be successful based upon his athleticism, but it is unlikely he will end the season with a valuation similar to New England Patriots star Julian Edelman or the Philadelphia’s Eagles Alshon Jeffrey.

Caleb Barnette is a Dolphins fan and Liverpool diehard who loves the analytical side of fantasy football. Most of his dynasty football advice will come through statistics and data analysis. Follow Barnette on Twitter at _CalebBarnette.