The UN’s two most senior Syria experts have warned of an Aleppo-style humanitarian catastrophe in Idlib as an EU donor conference aimed to raise up to $6bn (£4bn)to help Syrians displaced both inside and outside the country.



Idlib is the last major territory still in rebel hands. It is partly held by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, a jihadi group that Russia and the Syrian government regard as a legitimate target in an area where civilians and fighters continue to pour in as part of evacuation deals in other parts of the country.

Jan Egeland, the head of the UN’s humanitarian task force for Syria, said: “All my energies currently and in the coming weeks are dedicated to averting a fresh humanitarian disaster.”

Timeline The Syrian war Show Unprecedented protests demand civil liberties and the release of political prisoners after four decades of repressive rule by the Assad family. The regime represses demonstrations in Damascus and the southern city of Deraa but protests continue. Defecting army colonel Riad al-Asaad sets up the Turkey-based rebel Free Syrian Army. Islamist groups join the revolt. Regime forces take control of the rebel stronghold in Homs after a month of bombardment. Other bloody operations are carried out, notably in the central city of Hama, after massive anti-regime protests. More than 1,400 people die in a chemical weapon attack on rebel-held districts near Damascus. The US and Assad ally Russia agree a plan to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons, averting punitive US strikes against the regime. Hostilities between jihadists and rebel groups turn into an open war in the north. The group that will become known as Islamic State takes Raqqa – the first provincial capital to fall out of regime control – from rebel forces. A US-led coalition launches airstrikes against Isis in Syria. The strikes benefit Kurdish groups, which since 2013 have run autonomous administrations in Kurdish-majority areas. Russia launches airstrikes in support of Assad's troops, who are on the back foot. Russian firepower helps turn the tables for the regime, which begins to retake rebel-held territory. The regime retakes Syria's second city, Aleppo. Russia and Iran, as backers of the Syrian regime, and Turkey, a supporter of the rebels, organise talks in Kazakhstan, between representatives of both sides. The process leads to the creation of four "de-escalation zones". A sarin gas attack on the rebel-held town of Khan Sheikhun kills more than 80 people, prompting Washington to attack a regime airbase. Further complicating an already drawn-out conflict, Turkey launches an operation against the Kurdish People's Protection Units which, with US support, played a key role in beating back Isis. Regime launches a ferocious assault on the remaining rebel-held enclave near Damascus, eastern Ghouta. In under four weeks, the Russian-backed onslaught kills more than 1,200 civilians.

US president Donald Trump surprises advisors and allies alike by declaring victory over the Islamic State and promising to withdraw US troops from the conflict. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announce that they have driven Isis out of their final stronghold of Baghuz. At least 11,000 SDF fighters, a Kurdish-led militia which includes Arab, Syriac and Turkmen units, have died in the four-year military campaign against the group in Syria. Britain and France agree to deploy additional special forces in Syria to allow the US to withdraw its ground troops from the fight against remaining Isis forces in the country. Rebels withdraw from Khan Sheikhun in north-west Syria, clearing the way for pro-government forces to enter the town – a key moment in the war for Idlib province, the country’s last major rebel stronghold.

He described Idlib as “one giant area of displacement”. “More than half of the population in Idlib of 2 million have already been displaced, sometimes multiple times, so there has to be a negotiated end to the conflict in Idlib. You cannot have a war in the midst of the largest cluster of refugee camps and displaced people in the world,” he said.

“My fear is the Syrian government will say the place is filled with ‘terrorists’ and therefore you can wage war like they did during the sieges in Aleppo and eastern Ghouta … Yes, there are bad guys wearing beards, but there are many more women and children and they deserve protection. You cannot wage war as if everyone is a terrorist, or else will it be a nightmare.”

His remarks were echoed by the UN’s special envoy on Syria, Staffan de Mistura, who said: “We hope this would be an occasion for making sure that Idlib does not become new Aleppo, the new eastern Ghouta, because the dimensions are completely different.”

A Syrian government assault on the area is likely to lead to the mass movement of people, possibly toward the Turkish border. Up to 300,000 internally displaced people (IDPs) have reached Idlib province since August, and 700,000 have been displaced across Syria since the start of the year, according to UN figures.

Egeland said: “The Syrian civil war has lasted two years longer than the second world war, and far from 2017 and early 2018 becoming a moment when the war wound down, the crisis has escalated.

“I really thought 2017 would be the last huge war year, but the crisis has continued at the same ferocity into 2018. This has become a tremendous marathon of pain.”

A displaced child in Idlib province. Photograph: Yahya Nemah/EPA

The two-day donor conference in Brussels, which is focused as much on the 5 million refugees displaced in neighbouring Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon as the 6 million IDPs in Syria, is the third in a series that began in the UK in 2016.



Ministers from Jordan and Lebanon repeatedly warned that the situation was putting a huge strain on their economies and social fabric. About 135,000 Syrian children have been born in Lebanon since the civil war began.

Specific pledges will be revealed on Wednesday, with western countries putting pressure on the Gulf states to commit more than in the past.

On the first day of the conference, which was dedicated to hearing the views of the huge number of NGOs delivering food and education, the UN’s undersecretary for humanitarian affairs, Mark Lowcock, said 80% of Syrian refugees in neighbouring countries were living in poverty and nearly 35% of child refugees were out of school.

Jordan’s planning minister, Imad Fakhoury, said the 1.3 million Syrian refugees in his country were costing $1.5bn, 16% of Jordanian spending and 4% of GDP. Jordan’s economy has grown by only 2% a year in the last seven years, down from 6% in 2000-10.

Helle Thorning-Schmidt, the chief executive of Save the Children, said education was the key children needed to open the door to a better life.

Neither the Syrian government nor the official opposition are attending the conference.

Egeland said: “Until three weeks ago, it appeared as if Syrian donor fatigue was kicking in … the whole humanitarian relief programme was only 7% funded for 2018, a catastrophic underfunding. In the last few weeks, the funding has tripled, if only taking it to 23%. We now have only $795m of the $3.5bn that will be needed for inside Syria.”

Another $5.6bn was needed to help refugees in neighbouring countries in 2018, he said.