Welcome to TDG top 500 OBP update, reader. Please share, join the conversation by commenting below, on Twitter and on our Facebook page. I’ll try to do a Reddit AMA, too.

By now you have surely scrolled down to the rankings and I’m writing for pride. If you’re familiar with my work, you won’t be surprised to see three prospects in my top 10. If you aren’t, let me just say that these are not normal times. I do not generally just slide the top prospects into the top of these lists, but these particular kids, man. They left me without a choice! I’ll also caution that I know not how to rank for a league that might fold, so know your league! If you don’t have confidence that your league will be around indefinitely, then sure, fade the kids.

While I can’t say I have done 500 proper deep dives, I can say that i have thoroughly dissected this year’s class of ‘pop up’ stars. Last year Tommy Pham came out of nowhere to lead this author to a first place finish in industry Devil’s Rejects. This year, guys like Francisco Cervelli, Max Muncy, Jose Aguilar, Brandon Nimmo, Ross Stripling and Jose Martinez (among others) have forced dynasty owners to reimagine where upside can come from and make quick, tough decisions with only small samples with which to evaluate. I generally expect this group to continue to have success if they can stay healthy, but I have yet to see anyone (besides me) trade for them across three industry leagues. In other words, I do not have a sense of what the masses think. Maybe that’s for the best.

Meanwhile, after getting caught up dreaming on Francisco Mejia (who could still be very good!) and AJ Minter (ditto!) I am actively trying to fade catchers and even my favorite closer specs. Meanwhile, in general I wouldn’t blame anyone who wants to fade all but the best of the best Proven Closers (TM) as teams like the Rays and Phillies tweak with their bullpen usage, more teams deploy their best relievers in non-save chances, and unfortunate Alex Colome / Kelvin Herrera-type trades make pumpkins out of our assets.

My ranks are heavily influenced by the fact that finding good hitters that run, (or even bad hitters that run), continues to be a challenge. Of course, as dynasty owners we must balance that instinct against the reality that speed and the willingness to run can decline very quickly.

Let’s talk Statcast for a moment. It was clearly overused in the preseason (gah… Austin Barnes’ xwOBA), but it’s a real punching bag right now when it can still be a valuable tool. Is it predictive? No. At least we don’t know how predictive it is. Is it descriptive? Generally, yes, and I would rather have that information than not. (I say generally, because there’s some evidence that Statcast can run hot and cold in different parks and also miss certain events entirely.) Preseason Jose Martinez and Brandon Nimmo were both guys that popped up on my “Statcast xwOBA darling” watch list… it giveth and taketh away if overused.

Finally, my ranks are influenced by two consistent realities in the dynasty leagues I am in. First – the natural tendency of a dynasty league is to become top heavy, with 30-50 percent of the league in some version of a rebuild. Therefore, with a high bar to start on a top heavy team, I’d prefer to take more chances on upside than roster so-so players in the Major Leagues. Second, the best teams separate themselves on OBP, which is why OBP-heavy players with shaky counting stats, such as Francisco Cervelli, tend to be more interesting to me for dynasty leagues. Said another way – the top teams are all going to float to the top of the counting stats by default, so rate stats can be the differentiating category.

Follow me on Twitter and feel free to hit me up with questions there directly.

Rank Player Pos Team 1 Mike Trout CF LAA 2 Bryce Harper RF WAS 3 Francisco Lindor SS CLE 4 Mookie Betts RF BOS 5 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3B TOR 6 Ronald Acuna CF ATL 7 Juan Soto RF WAS 8 Carlos Correa SS HOU 9 Trea Turner SS WAS 10 Jose Ramirez 3B CLE 11 Jose Altuve 2B HOU 12 Kris Bryant 3B CHC 13 Manny Machado 3B BAL 14 Aaron Judge RF NYY 15 Freddie Freeman 1B ATL 16 Nolan Arenado 3B COL 17 Alex Bregman 3B HOU 18 Corey Seager SS LAD 19 Gleyber Torres SS NYY 20 Ozzie Albies 2B ATL 21 Andrew Benintendi LF BOS 22 Christian Yelich CF MIL 23 Xander Bogaerts SS BOS 24 Noah Syndergaard SP NYM 25 Fernando Tatis SS SD 26 Anthony Rendon 3B WAS 27 Victor Robles RF WAS 28 Yoan Moncada 2B CHW 29 J.D. Martinez RF ARI 30 Gary Sanchez C NYY 31 Rhys Hoskins LF PHI 32 George Springer CF HOU 33 Giancarlo Stanton RF NYY 34 Paul Goldschmidt 1B ARI 35 Chris Sale SP BOS 36 Cody Bellinger 1B LAD 37 Luis Severino SP NYY 38 Anthony Rizzo 1B CHC 39 Brendan Rodgers SS COL 40 Nomar Mazara RF TEX 41 Tommy Pham LF STL 42 Trevor Story SS COL 43 Bo Bichette SS TOR 44 Nick Senzel 3B CIN 45 Rafael Devers 3B BOS 46 Eloy Jimenez RF CHW 47 Max Scherzer SP WAS 48 Joey Votto 1B CIN 49 Charlie Blackmon CF COL 50 Jacob deGrom SP NYM 51 Aaron Nola SP PHI 52 Corey Kluber SP CLE 53 Matt Olson 1B OAK 54 Byron Buxton CF MIN 55 Joey Gallo 3B TEX 56 Gerrit Cole SP HOU 57 Brandon Belt 1B SF 58 Javier Baez 2B CHC 59 Walker Buehler RP LAD 60 Kyle Schwarber LF CHC 61 Marcell Ozuna OF STL 62 Jose Berrios SP MIN 63 Stephen Strasburg SP WAS 64 Nicholas Castellanos 3B DET 65 Jameson Taillon SP PIT 66 Blake Snell SP TB 67 Miguel Sano 3B MIN 68 Clayton Kershaw SP LAD 69 Josh Donaldson 3B TOR 70 Jose Abreu 1B CHW 71 Carlos Martinez SP STL 72 Justin Upton LF LAA 73 A.J. Pollock OF ARI 74 Justin Verlander SP HOU 75 James Paxton SP SEA 76 Kenley Jansen RP LAD 77 Starling Marte LF PIT 78 Michael Conforto LF NYM 79 Eugenio Suarez 3B CIN 80 Madison Bumgarner SP SF 81 J.T. Realmuto C MIA 82 Willson Contreras C CHC 83 Kyle Tucker CF HOU 84 Austin Riley 3B ATL 85 Yordan Alvarez LF HOU 86 Khris Davis LF OAK 87 Aroldis Chapman RP NYY 88 Craig Kimbrel RP BOS 89 Lance McCullers SP HOU 90 Buster Posey C SF 91 Wil Myers 1B SD 92 Shohei Ohtani SP LAA 93 Royce Lewis SS MIN 94 Teoscar Hernandez LF TOR 95 Willy Adames SS TB 96 Amed Rosario SS NYM 97 Forrest Whitley SP HOU 98 Edwin Diaz RP SEA 99 Miguel Andujar 3B NYY 100 Taylor Trammell LF CIN 101 Trevor Bauer SP CLE 102 Brandon Nimmo OF NYM 103 Adam Eaton CF WAS 104 Matt Chapman 3B OAK 105 Whit Merrifield 2B KC 106 Chris Archer SP TB 107 Carlos Carrasco SP CLE 108 Patrick Corbin SP ARI 109 Austin Meadows CF PIT 110 Mike Foltynewicz SP ATL 111 David Dahl LF COL 112 Ian Happ CF CHC 113 Jose Martinez LF STL 114 Carter Kieboom SS WAS 115 Jesus Sanchez LF TB 116 Keston Hiura 2B MIL 117 Max Muncy 3B LAD 118 Gregory Polanco RF PIT 119 Andrew McCutchen CF SF 120 Yu Darvish SP CHC 121 Mitch Haniger RF SEA 122 Jesus Aguilar 1B MIL 123 Dee Gordon 2B SEA 124 Billy Hamilton CF CIN 125 Eric Thames 1B MIL 126 Corey Knebel RP MIL 127 Zack Greinke SP ARI 128 Ross Stripling SP LAD 129 Brent Honeywell SP TB 130 Mike Moustakas 3B KC 131 Elvis Andrus SS TEX 132 Jean Segura SS SEA 133 Yasiel Puig RF LAD 134 Eric Hosmer 1B KC 135 Jake Lamb 3B ARI 136 Jesse Winker RF CIN 137 Lewis Brinson CF MIA 138 Clint Frazier LF NYY 139 Tim Anderson SS CHW 140 Franchy Cordero CF SD 141 Lorenzo Cain CF KC 142 Travis Shaw 3B MIL 143 Edwin Encarnacion DH CLE 144 Daniel Murphy 2B WAS 145 Andrelton Simmons SS LAA 146 Garrett Richards SP LAA 147 Dallas Keuchel SP HOU 148 Jon Gray SP COL 149 Alex Wood SP LAD 150 David Price SP BOS 151 Nelson Cruz DH SEA 152 Matt Carpenter 1B STL 153 Mike Clevinger SP CLE 154 Eduardo Rodriguez SP BOS 155 Carlos Santana 1B PHI 156 Salvador Perez C KC 157 Sean Newcomb SP ATL 158 Mike Soroka RHP Braves 159 Cesar Hernandez 2B PHI 160 Eddie Rosario LF MIN 161 Brian Dozier 2B MIN 162 Robinson Cano 2B SEA 163 Kyle Seager 3B SEA 164 Ryan Braun LF MIL 165 Justin Turner 3B LAD 166 Jake Bauers LF TB 167 Didi Gregorius SS NYY 168 Kevin Kiermaier CF TB 169 Jo Adell LF LAA 170 Charlie Morton SP HOU 171 Michael Brantley LF CLE 172 Aaron Hicks CF NYY 173 Miles Mikolas SP STL 174 Masahiro Tanaka SP NYY 175 Jose Quintana SP CHC 176 Scott Schebler RF CIN 177 Johnny Cueto SP SF 178 Nick Williams RF PHI 179 Chris Taylor CF LAD 180 Luis Castillo SP CIN 181 Josh Hader RP MIL 182 Ender Inciarte CF ATL 183 Luis Urias SS SD 184 Peter Alonso 1B NYM 185 Garrett Hampson 2B COL 186 Jorge Mateo SS OAK 187 Josh Naylor 1B SD 188 Bradley Zimmer CF CLE 189 Robbie Ray SP ARI 190 Yoenis Cespedes LF NYM 191 Jonathan Schoop 2B BAL 192 DJ LeMahieu 2B COL 193 Tyler Skaggs SP LAA 194 Kenta Maeda SP LAD 195 Yasmani Grandal C LAD 196 Jorge Soler RF KC 197 Justin Smoak 1B TOR 198 Gio Gonzalez SP WAS 199 Odubel Herrera CF PHI 200 Paul DeJong SS STL 201 Max Kepler RF MIN 202 Nick Pivetta SP PHI 203 Greg Bird 1B NYY 204 Marcus Stroman SP TOR 205 Scott Kingery 2B PHI 206 Ryan McMahon 1B COL 207 Zack Collins C CHW 208 Adam Jones CF BAL 209 Kevin Gausman SP BAL 210 Jimmy Nelson SP MIL 211 Andrew Heaney SP LAA 212 Joc Pederson CF LAD 213 Michael Fulmer SP DET 214 Addison Russell SS CHC 215 Blake Treinen RP OAK 216 Sean Doolittle RP WAS 217 Carlos Rodon SP CHW 218 Sonny Gray SP NYY 219 Dylan Bundy SP BAL 220 Francisco Cervelli C PIT 221 Felipe Vazquez RP PIT 222 Francisco Mejia C CLE 223 Joe Musgrove RP PIT 224 Jeimer Candelario 3B DET 225 Brian Anderson 3B MIA 226 Alex Reyes SP STL 227 Michael Kopech SP CHW 228 Mike Zunino C SEA 229 J.A. Happ SP TOR 230 Ryan Zimmerman 1B WAS 231 Shin-Soo Choo RF TEX 232 Zack Godley SP ARI 233 Brad Hand RP SD 234 Raimel Tapia RF COL 235 Manuel Margot CF SD 236 Justin Bour 1B MIA 237 Colin Moran 3B PIT 238 Matt Kemp OF LAD 239 Luiz Gohara SP ATL 240 Jack Flaherty SP STL 241 Freddy Peralta SP MIL 242 Shane Bieber SP CLE 243 Rick Porcello SP BOS 244 Sean Manaea SP OAK 245 Luis Robert CF CHW 246 Leody Taveras CF TEX 247 Estevan Florial CF NYY 248 Tirso Ornelas OF SD 249 Jeisson Rosario CF SD 250 Jhailyn Ortiz RF PHI 251 Daulton Varsho C ARI 252 Jesus Luzardo SP OAK 253 Franklin Barreto SS OAK 254 Heliot Ramos CF SF 255 Sixto Sanchez SP PHI 256 A.J. Puk SP OAK 257 Daniel Robertson 2B TB 258 Maikel Franco 3B PHI 259 Josh Bell 1B PIT 260 Jake Arrieta SP CHC 261 Colton Welker 3B COL 262 Khalil Lee OF KC 263 Jahmai Jones CF LAA 264 Esteury Ruiz 2B SD 265 Tyler O’Neill LF STL 266 Raisel Iglesias RP CIN 267 Jon Lester SP CHC 268 Steven Souza Jr. RF TB 269 Yusniel Diaz RF LAD 270 Nick Gordon SS MIN 271 Delino DeShields LF TEX 272 Trey Mancini LF BAL 273 Taijuan Walker SP ARI 274 Jonathan Villar 2B MIL 275 Dustin Fowler RF OAK 276 Matt Thaiss 1B LAA 277 Christin Stewart LF DET 278 Keibert Ruiz C LAD 279 Yonder Alonso 1B CLE 280 Stephen Piscotty RF OAK 281 Andres Gimenez SS NYM 282 Lazaro Armenteros LF OAK 283 Seuly Matias OF KC 284 Bobby Bradley 1B CLE 285 Luke Weaver SP STL 286 Jonathan Loaisiga SP NYY 287 Brandon Morrow RP CHC 288 Cody Allen RP CLE 289 Alex Verdugo CF LAD 290 MacKenzie Gore SP SD 291 Dansby Swanson SS ATL 292 Scooter Gennett 2B CIN 293 Adam Duvall LF CIN 294 Oneil Cruz SS PIT 295 Mitch Keller SP PIT 296 Marcus Semien SS OAK 297 Tyler Flowers C ATL 298 J.P. Crawford 3B PHI 299 Rougned Odor 2B TEX 300 Jason Kipnis 2B CLE 301 Kevin Pillar CF TOR 302 Brandon Crawford SS SF 303 Hunter Greene SP CIN 304 Cristian Pache CF ATL 305 Randal Grichuk LF STL 306 Danny Jansen C TOR 307 Corey Ray CF MIL 308 Justus Sheffield SP NYY 309 Andrew Miller RP CLE 310 Orlando Arcia SS MIL 311 Eduardo Escobar 3B MIN 312 Mitch Moreland 1B BOS 313 Vince Velasquez SP PHI 314 Seth Lugo SP NYM 315 Matt Davidson DH CWS 316 Anthony Alford LF TOR 317 Brendan McKay 1B TB 318 Luis Alexander Basabe OF CWS 319 Will Benson RF CLE 320 Ketel Marte SS ARI 321 C.J. Cron 1B TB 322 Adrian Beltre 3B TEX 323 Brandon Marsh RF LAA 324 Jeurys Familia RP NYM 325 Raul Mondesi 2B KC 326 Mallex Smith CF TB 327 Jason Heyward RF CHC 328 Shedric Long 2B CIN 329 Alex Kirilloff OF Min 330 Wilson Ramos C TB 331 Michael Wacha SP STL 332 Jacob Faria SP TB 333 David Peralta RF ARI 334 Kyle Hendricks SP CHC 335 Danny Duffy SP KC 336 Josh Reddick RF HOU 337 Corey Dickerson LF TB 338 Calvin Mitchell OF PIT 339 Akil Baddoo CF MIN 340 Hyun-Jin Ryu SP LAD 341 Monte Harrison CF MIA 342 Miguel Cabrera 1B DET 343 Zach Britton RP BAL 344 Evan Gattis C HOU 345 Willie Calhoun LF TEX 346 Brett Gardner LF NYY 347 Todd Frazier 3B NYY 348 Aaron Sanchez SP TOR 349 Ian Kinsler 2B LAA 350 Jurickson Profar LF TEX 351 Adam Ottavino RP COL 352 Leonys Martin OF DET 353 Roberto Osuna RP TOR 354 Luis Garcia 2B WAS 355 DJ Peters CF LAD 356 Seranthony Dominguez RP PHI 357 Ryon Healy 3B SEA 358 Enyel de los Santos SP PHI 359 Asdrubal Cabrera SS NYM 360 Jose Peraza 2B CIN 361 Jeter Downs SS CIN 362 Wander Franco SS TB 363 Archie Bradley RP ARI 364 Nolan Jones 3B CLE 365 Avisail Garcia RF CHW 366 Michael Taylor CF WAS 367 Kyle Wright SP ATL 368 Ryan Mountcastle SS BAL 369 Welington Castillo C CHW 370 Jed Lowrie 2B OAK 371 Alexander Canario OF SF 372 Isan Diaz 2B MIA 373 Dexter Fowler CF STL 374 Lucas Duda 1B TB 375 Miguel Amaya C CHC 376 Frankie Montas SP OAK 377 Dylan Covey SP CWS 378 George Valera OF CLE 379 Nathaniel Lowe 1B TB 380 Miguel Hiraldo 2B TOR 381 MJ Melendez C KC 382 Ronaldo Hernandez C TB 383 Fernando Romero SP MIN 384 Dermis Garcia 3B NYY 385 Gavin Lux SS LAD 386 Lucius Fox SS TB 387 Austin Beck 388 Freudis Nova SS HOU 389 Reynaldo Lopez SP CHW 390 Arodys Vizcaino RP ATL 391 Keone Kela RP TEX 392 Julio Pablo Martinez OF TEX 393 Jackie Bradley Jr. CF BOS 394 Jay Bruce RF NYM 395 Evan Longoria 3B SF 396 Ian Desmond 1B COL 397 Joe Panik 2B SF 398 Wander Javier SS MIN 399 Michel Baez SP SD 400 Kolby Allard SP ATL 401 Dinelson Lamet SP SD 402 Alec Hansen SP CHW 403 Adrian Morejon SP SD 404 Mike Montgomery RP CHC 405 Albert Abreu SP NYY 406 Rich Hill SP LAD 407 Josh Harrison 2B PIT 408 Aaron Altherr LF PHI 409 Ben Zobrist 2B CHC 410 Matt Adams 1B WAS 411 Kendrys Morales DH TOR 412 Yangervis Solarte 2B TOR 413 Steven Matz SP NYM 414 Julio Teheran SP ATL 415 Jeff Samardzija SP SF 416 Yulieski Gurriel 1B HOU 417 Ken Giles RP HOU 418 Wade Davis RP COL 419 Drew Pomeranz SP BOS 420 Anthony DeSclafani SP CIN 421 Kyle Lewis CF SEA 422 Lance Lynn SP STL 423 Logan Morrison 1B TB 424 Myles Straw OF HOU 425 Austin Barnes C LAD 426 Brad Miller 2B TB 427 Brandon Woodruff SP MIL 428 Hudson Potts SS SD 429 Jedd Gyorko 3B STL 430 Jon Duplantier SP ARI 431 Chase Anderson SP MIL 432 Marwin Gonzalez LF HOU 433 Corbin Burnes SP MIL 434 Josh James SP HOU 435 Ian Anderson SP ATL 436 Julio Urias SP LAD 437 Pavin Smith 1B ARI 438 Yohan Camargo 3B ATL 439 Christian Villanueva 3B SD 440 Kyle Barraclough 441 Griffin Canning SP LAA 442 Tyler Mahle SP CIN 443 Blake Rutherford CF CHW 444 Kevin Smith 3B TOR 445 Alex Faedo SP DET 446 Nick Solak 447 Tim Beckham SS BAL 448 Joe Ross SP WAS 449 Ervin Santana SP MIN 450 Mark Trumbo DH BAL 451 Wilmer Flores 3B NYM 452 Shane Baz SP PIT 453 Kelvin Herrera RP KC 454 Nate Pearson RP TOR 455 Jasrado Chisholm SS ARI 456 Kristian Robinson OF ARI 457 Matt Manning SP DET 458 Aledmys Diaz SS TOR 459 Yadier Molina C STL 460 Michael Chavis 3B BOS 461 Ronald Guzman 1B TEX 462 Harrison Bader CF STL 463 Wilmer Difo SS WAS 464 Tony Kemp OF HOU 465 Zack Cozart SS LAA 466 Russell Martin C TOR 467 Cavan Biggio 2B TOR 468 Nick Kingham SP PIT 469 Domingo Santana OF MIL 470 Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B PIT 471 Derek Fisher LF HOU 472 Jose Urena SP MIA 473 Brusdar Graterol SP MIN 474 Joe Mauer 1B MIN 475 Bubba Thompson CF TEX 476 Zack Wheeler SP NYM 477 Cedric Mullins OF BAL 478 Starlin Castro 2B MIA 479 Brent Rooker LF MIN 480 Danny Salazar SP CLE 481 Hunter Renfroe OF SD 482 Niko Goodrum 2B DET 483 Trevor Rosenthal RP 484 Jeren Kendall CF LAD 485 Max Stassi C HOU 486 Daz Cameron CF DET 487 Dustin Pedroia 2B BOS 488 Kolten Wong 2B STL 489 Cole Tucker SS PIT 490 Erick Fedde SP WAS 491 Chris Devenski RP HOU 492 Tanner Roark SP WAS 493 Micker Adolfo 494 Chance Sisco C BAL 495 Hanley Ramirez DH BOS 496 Dane Dunning SP CWS 497 Jordan Hicks RP STL 498 Kyle Freeland SP COL 499 Zack Burdi RP CWS 500 Edwin Rios 1B LAD