Despite facing 22 years of anti-incumbency, despite major trader unrest over the implementation of GST and demonetisation, despite the Patidar, OBC-Thakore and Dalit agitations, the BJP seems set to retain its bastion of Gujarat, according to the results of the India Today-Axis My India Opinion Poll. Axis My India is the polling agency which correctly called the extent of Modi's sweep in the 2014 general elections and followed it up with accurate predictions for the Delhi, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh assembly elections.

According to the opinion poll conducted by Axis between September 15 and October 15 in all the 182 constituencies of Gujarat, the BJP is projected to bag between 115-125 seats. This is in the same range as the BJP's performance in the 2007 and 2012 assembly elections. The Congress, which is the principal opposition in the state, is projected to bag between 57-65 seats. In the last assembly elections held in 2012, the Congress party had bagged 60 seats.

Out of the 18,243 respondents sampled by Axis My India, 48 per cent said that they would vote for the BJP, while 38 per cent said that they would vote for the Congress. A 10 per cent gap in vote share in a bipolar race is enough to ensure that BJP is able to overcome all the anti-incumbency that has been building against the party during its reign in power.

The poll shows that the Congress has an edge among 32 per cent of the electorate - Muslims 10 per cent, Dalits 6 per cent and Patidars 16 per cent. On the other hand, the BJP has a decisive edge among 67 per cent of the electorate - OBC 37 per cent, ST 15 per cent and General 15 per cent.

This opinion poll takes into account the extra votes the Congress may get with the support of OBC youth leader Alpesh Thakore and Dalit activist Jignesh Mewani. But the vote share predictions do not account for the additional bump the opposition can get if Patidar leader Hardik Patel announces that he too will back the Congress. Over the last few years, Hardik Patel has emerged as an influential leader of the Patidar community. The Patidars are the dominant caste in the state, making up 16 per cent of the total electorate. They play a decisive role in 21 out of the state's 182 seats.

So far, Hardik has been ambivalent about whether he will support the Congress directly. In his rallies and interviews, Hardik has been saying that he wants his supporters to "overthrow the arrogant BJP which attacked Patidar youths." But Hardik has thus far not come out in open support of the Congress. Hardik went to great lengths to keep his meeting with Congress leaders in Ahmedabad on Monday secret. Officially, he has denied meeting Rahul Gandhi even though Congress leaders say the meeting did take place in an Ahmedabad hotel room.

In this opinion poll, Axis My India did ask respondents whether they would back whichever party Hardik decided to support. Two percent of the total respondents said they would back the party which had the support of the Patidar young turk. Axis My India has also made a Scenario Two projection for what may happen if Hardik Patel were to officially declare his support for the Congress. According to the pollsters at Axis My India, if Hardik openly supports the Congress, the party's vote share can climb from 38 per cent to 40 per cent. This could lead to a gain of about 5-10 seats for the Congress and a commensurate loss in seat share for the BJP.

While Hardik's support for the Congress will dent BJP's chances, it is not enough to upset the ruling party's applecart in this high-voltage election, which is being seen as a mega prestige battle for the mighty Modi-Shah combine. What must be kept in mind is that this poll was conducted before October 15 and does not capture the impact of events which have transpired after the surveyors had completed their fieldwork.

What is clear though is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to remain the BJP's main draw in the elections. 66 per cent of the respondents felt that Gujarat had benefitted after Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister and a whopping 74 per cent of the respondents felt that the Modi government had done well or very well. The BJP in the state may be feeling the pressure of anti-incumbency but this has not impacted the image of the son of the soil who went on to become India's Prime Minister. In past elections, Modi has successively worked his magic and won over the electorate despite facing strong anti-incumbency. The opinion poll numbers suggest that citizens of Gujarat are still captivated by Modi's spell.

The biggest headache for the BJP by far is the backlash faced by the rollout of the Goods and Services Tax. In a state dominated by traders, more than half the respondents said that they were dissatisfied with the GST. Only 38 per cent approved of the GST. It is very clear from the poll numbers that there is anger with the way GST has been implemented, but what is not clear is whether anger over GST will impact voter behaviour. For a long time now, traders have been strong supporters of the BJP in Gujarat and are considered the party's principal support base. Whether these traders will go to the extent of dumping the BJP over GST is one of the big X-factors of the Gujarat polls. The BJP, for its part, has been going all out to assuage the anger of the trading community and ease the bottlenecks caused by the rollout of the GST.

In this poll, incumbent Vijay Rupani of the BJP emerges as the number one choice of the voters to be the state's next chief minister with 34 per cent of the respondents picking him as their number one choice. Shaktisinh Gohil of the Congress comes in second with 19 per cent approval ratings. Former Chief Minister Madhavsinh Solanki's son and current Congress state party chief Bharatsinh Solanki comes in third place with 11 per cent approval ratings.

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