But surprising things can happen in big moments. And everyone in the Capitol is beginning to game things out.

“If I had to bet, most likely yeah,” Republicans will stay united, said Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.). “The better question is how many of the Dems will vote to acquit? I’m going to say two out of the three” undecided Democrats.

“We’re all going to make our individual decisions based on the evidence presented,” said Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii). “At least the Democrats are very together on the need for witnesses. But I’m not going to castigate people that will make decisions that are different from mine.”

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) became the first swing vote to come down, announcing she would vote to acquit Trump in a floor speech Monday.

Here's a look at five other senators who could break with their party on the two articles of impeachment. Their votes will determine whether Trump gets a bipartisan acquittal, a bipartisan condemnation — or, perhaps, both.

Mitt Romney

Sen. Mitt Romney. | Mario Tama/Getty Images

The Utah Republican led the drive to summon new witnesses on the Republican side, zeroing in on former national security adviser John Bolton. He’s also been the most consistent Republican chiding Trump for urging foreign countries to probe the Bidens, dubbing it “wrong and appalling.”

Romney is viewed by both parties as the most likely Republican to vote to convict Trump. But he's given nothing away publicly and has declined to telegraph his thinking on a vote that could separate him from his party for years to come or give Trump a major boost as he preaches GOP unity.

“I'm not going to comment at this stage,” he said on Monday afternoon as the impeachment trial came to an end. His only observation: The closing arguments were “not too long so that was nice.”

In some ways, Romney’s decision is less wrenching than others. He isn’t up for re-election until 2024, doesn’t need money for fundraising and presumably has no higher aspirations since he was the party’s presidential nominee in 2012. But his relationship with Trump is complex: He savaged Trump during the 2016 campaign, then interviewed for a Cabinet position with Trump and is now perhaps the toughest sitting GOP critic of the president’s behavior.

Still, Republicans think they’ll keep Romney on board.

“I do, yes,” said Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.). “Just my hunch."

Joe Manchin

The West Virginia moderate gave Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh his only Democratic vote in 2018 and is openly struggling with the impeachment articles facing Trump now.

Manchin is widely assumed by fellow Democrats to be the most likely defection given his state’s conservative politics and his acknowledgment last week that he might run for reelection in 2024.

After the trial wrapped, he was the only Democrat to shake the hand of the White House counsel — but he also shook hands with the House impeachment managers. He then gave a floor speech in which he called for the president’s censure but declined to say how he would vote Wednesday.

Manchin said he believes his censure resolution could get a bipartisan majority. But with most Republicans dug in defending the president, it’s unlikely to advance. Manchin called the looming vote on whether to remove Trump from office “the most difficult decision I’ll ever make” and that he would decide “when I walk in."

"I’m that torn," he said.

Susan Collins

Sen. Susan Collins. | Mark Wilson/Getty Images

Impeachment has been a uniquely trying episode for Collins, the Maine moderate who is up for reelection this fall. Collins didn’t support Trump in 2016, and her vote on Wednesday will be the first hint of how she will position herself next to Trump in 2020. The president is expected to eagerly campaign in Maine, which gave him one electoral vote in 2016.

She’s said repeatedly her decision on Trump’s removal will be made without politics, but whatever she does will have ramifications in November. A vote to convict would outrage the Republican base, while a vote to acquit would inflame Maine’s increasingly dominant Democratic Party. A former staffer, Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), voted for the impeachment article charging abuse of power but against the one on obstruction of Congress.

Collins often criticizes Trump’s inflammatory remarks, but has said fewer critical things about Trump’s Ukraine push than Romney. Still, she’s shown some willingness to buck Trump in the trial; she was the only Republican other than Romney to vote to hear new witnesses.

History suggests she may give the president a reprieve. Collins voted against removing Clinton from office, and the assumption now in her party is that she leans toward acquitting Trump as well.

Doug Jones

Sen. Doug Jones. | Andrew Harnik, File/AP Photo

Collins may have a tough race, but easy compared with what Doug Jones has to face as a Democrat running for reelection in deep red Alabama. And he’s been struggling over how to come down on Trump’s impeachment articles.

“I’m getting there. I’m going through all of my notes. I’m going through everything,” Jones said ahead of the final debate in the trial.

Jones has singled out the second article, on obstruction, for scrutiny, saying he’s “troubled” the House didn’t fight harder to bring witnesses in that the administration had blocked. But he’s also criticized the White House defense team for concentrating on Hunter Biden’s job on the board of a Ukraine energy committee.





“It’s one thing to criticize the House managers for pulling a distraction, then you spend an hour and a half talking about the biggest distraction of the whole trial,” Jones said in an interview last week.

Jones has voted for some key Trump nominees, namely Attorney General William Barr, but is generally not as conservative as Manchin. That makes Democrats feel a little more confident about where he stands.

Kyrsten Sinema

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. | M. Scott Mahaskey/POLITICO

While the other senators on this list have offered some degree of running commentary on their latest thinking, Sinema leaves everyone guessing. During the closing arguments she re-read her notes, underlined things she’d already written and then scribbled new notes.

During a break, she chatted with Collins and Murkowski and also spoke for a lengthy time with Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), the Republican whip. Then she dipped into the Democratic cloakroom and greeted a Senate page: “Good morning, afternoon, whatever it is now.”

Sinema was the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Arizona in 30 years and has positioned herself as a conservative Democrat in the caucus. Still, she often votes with Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on procedural votes. Notably, she joined the party’s quest for new witnesses and opposed the rules of the impeachment trial written by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-K.Y.).

But back home things are complicated. For months, the Arizona state party has been considering whether to reprimand her for leaning too far to the right. No matter how she votes, some will be angry.



Andrew Desiderio, Marianne LeVine and Melanie Zanona contributed to this report.