The beauty of fantasy baseball auction drafts is flexibility and opportunity. Since owners are untethered from a draft position, gems like Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw are in play for everyone; all an owner has to do is pay. Many theories have emerged regarding auction drafting, and most would agree that the most important principle to follow is, ‘Be ready to buy when an opportunity arises.’ I would certainly agree with that, but I wonder: what happens when you buy too often and too early? Or when you end up wasting leftover dough at the end of a draft?

Today I’m going to share a budgeting strategy that has helped me tremendously when approaching auction drafts. This strategy allows owners to buy players throughout the draft without ever having to 1) worry about going over budget, 2) finish with any unused cash, or, most importantly, 3) sacrifice flexibility. Because this system is rooted in Fibonacci Numbers, I’ll call this method ‘Fibonacci’s Budget.’

Background

If you don’t recall why that name sounds familiar, that’s ok. He was an 11th-century Italian mathematician who introduced the recurrence relation: Fn=Fn-1+Fn-2 where F1=1 and F2=1. If that doesn’t make sense of ring a bell, he’s the nautilus shell guy whose sequence looks like this: 1,1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34 …, and you can find more info here. Now let’s apply this concept to auction drafting.

The Method

The Fibonacci Budget Method, hereinafter the Method, works with a few assumptions in mind:

Values can be found in every price range

Spending flexibility is crucial throughout a draft

It’s important to spend a competitive amount of cash early

It’s equally as important to have more than your opponents late

You don’t want any money left over

It’s more fun to participate throughout the entire draft

As the saying goes, ‘money is power.’ This method works by ensuring that you have the ability to compete with anyone because you’ll always have at least as much money as most competitors. The keys to success with this method are as follows: budgetary discipline, patience, preparation, adaptation, and $2 or $3 Snipes (which I’ll talk about later).

To illustrate this method I will use Yahoo’s 12-team auction settings, since their $260 auction budget inspired this method. Also, Yahoo’s default settings seem to be the standard against which all other formats and league settings can be measured. (It’s probably the place where a lot of us broke into fantasy). Here are the standard settings of Yahoo auctions:

$260 Budget

23 Roster Spots to Fill — 18 Starters, 5 Bench

Initial Maximum Bid of $238

It was that $238 Maximum Bid number that led me to this strategy. While 238 is not a Fibonacci number, 233 is. Fibonacci numbers follow the Fibonacci Sequence and, again, “are characterized by the fact that every number after the first two is the sum of the two preceding.” The Fibonacci numbers we will be using are: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 and 233. With these helpful numbers as guides, our draft budget is basically already planned.

The Budget

Picks Spend (Average/Player) Budget Remaining Pre-Draft – $260 1 & 2 $89 ($44.5) $171 3 & 4 $55 ($27.5) $116 5 & 6 $34 ($17) $82 7 & 8 $21 ($10.5) $61 9 & 10 $13 ($6.5) $48 11 & 12 $8 ($4) $40 13 & 14 $5 ($2.5) $35

I know you’re thinking, ”What are you going to do with that extra 35 bucks?” Here’s what I like to do with at least $15 of it:

15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 12 ($2) $23 21, 22, 23 3 ($1) $20

Remember those $2 and $3 Snipes I mentioned? Rounds 15 through 20 are dedicated to snagging players while other owners are desperately trying to nominate their favorite sleepers to take home quietly. We all know most people don’t nominate players they like until the end of the draft when they have no other choice but to nominate players for $1 and hope they win the bid.

One thing that’s great about the $2 and $3 Snipes approach is that it ensures you have a chance to snag the sleepers you want. These snipes are often possible because so many owners have blown their cash early using the ‘Stars and Scrubs’ approach. While that can be a very effective system, it does not offer a lot of flexibility late in drafts. Another bonus of our Method is the satisfaction of buying up guys for $2 or $3 that another owner was anxiously hoping would last until the very end.

You’ll notice that rounds 21 through 23 are dedicated to the value-based approach of $1 sleepers. These guys will likely live at the end of your bench, and perhaps not for long, so it doesn’t hurt to buy the conventional wisdom at this point while taking home a few lottery tickets.

If you’re asking, “What about the $20 you have left over?” then I want to commend you for asking a great question. Consider this $20 your Flex Spending Account. This $20 is yours to spend however you wish throughout the draft. It is your “Just one more dollar” money in a showdown, or use it to grab a player you absolutely have to have. Tuck it away and keep an accurate tally as you draft.

Let’s examine how this Method might shake out in practice.

The Method in Action: A Model 12-Team Draft

(Note: In the following model, I will use the exact totals of player prices and will not round up or down. The reason is simple: after a few instances of rounding up or down, the difference will be negligible to the final example’s outcome. I want to focus more on the caliber of player you’ll be able to acquire at each level, rather get bogged down with specific names.)

Picks 1 & 2 for $89, or $44.5 per Pick:

Player Average Cost / Complementing Value Mike Trout $55.6 / $33.4 Jose Altuve $54.6 / $34.4 Nolan Arenado $51.6 / $36.4 Paul Goldschmidt $50.5 / $38.5 Mookie Betts $50.5 / $39.1 Trea Turner $49.1 / $39.9 Clayton Kershaw $48.4 / $40.6 Bryce Harper $46.9 / $42.1 Max Scherzer $45.8 / $43.2 Charlie Blackmon $44.5 / $44.5 Kris Bryant $43.3 / $45.7 Giancarlo Stanton $44.1 / $44.9 Chris Sale $40.9 / $48.1 Carlos Correa $39.0 / $50.0 Corey Kluber $37.9 / $51.1 Aaron Judge $37.9 / $51.1 Freddie Freeman $35.4 / $53.6 Joey Votto $33.8 / $55.2 Anthony Rizzo $33.7 / $55.3 Francisco Lindor $33.6 / $55.4 Manny Machado $33.6 / $55.4

The $89 that the Method gave us for the first two selections might not have looked like much, but as you can see, only the top five players cost over $50 in Yahoo Auctions and therefore would require buying a second player from a lower tier. This would be similar to drafting the same players in a Snake Draft.

However, if your first two players are at the Kris Bryant cost-level or lower then you’ll actually be spending less than you budgeted. You’d be able to pair Bryant with one of Giancarlo Stanton, Chris Sale, Carlos Correa, Corey Kluber, Aaron Judge, Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, Francisco Lindor, Anthony Rizzo and Manny Machado and still be under budget.

Remember: if you decide you’d like to go after Trout at $55.6 and want to pair him with Kris Bryant at $43.3, that is perfectly fine. You do have $20 to play with. If you bought Trout and Bryant you would still have $10 remaining from that $20 Flex Account. If you decide to buy Trout and Altuve, the game’s most expensive players, you’d still only be $1.20 over budget. This is possible to make up for later, but I would not recommend letting your flex cash burn through your pocket immediately. No method can make up for a lack of discipline.

The important thing to note is that you are free to select two of the game’s top tier players without worrying about going over budget. In fact, this is all part of the plan.

For this example, let’s draft Nolan Arenado for $51.6 and Freddie Freeman for $35.4 for $87. We are currently $2 under budget and still have $20 in our Flex Account.

Picks 3 & 4 for $55, or $27.5 per pick

This is where patience comes into play. After you’ve bought your top two studs, you’ll need to sit back and wait until the next tier of players go on the block. Waiting between tiers can be a challenge, but again, the budget works by allowing you to target players at every level. Since you’ve already got two guys in your pocket, you’ll need to have faith in your selections and wait for buying opportunities later.

From this tier, I’ll select Gary Sanchez for $32.5 and Brian Dozier for $24.9 at a total cost of $57.4. I am now 40-cents under budget, with a Flex Account balance of $19.6.

Picks 5 & 6 for $34, or $17 per pick

Again: patience is necessary as another tier goes off the board. I’m feeling very good right now, even without a single outfielder or starting pitcher. Fortunately, there are plenty of attractive options at this price range. Again, I am going for two of them.

I’ll select Khris Davis for $18.1 and Aaron Nola for $18.3 for $36.4. Again, over budget slightly, but safe with a reserve of $17.2.

Picks 7 & 8 for $21, or $10.5 per pick

I’ll take my boy Kyle Hendricks for $14.1 and Jean Segura for $14.8 for a total of $28.9. I like both these guys enough to dip into my reserve budget significantly here, but I still have $9.3 to play with.

Picks 9 & 10 for $13, or $6.5 per pick

Prices are falling quickly now. I’ll take a couple of cheap fliers on Kyle Schwarber at $5.3 and Jameson Taillon at $4.5. These two will cost me only $9.8, replenishing $3.2 to my reserve which is back to a healthy $12.5.

FLEX Pick: $12.5 Available

I’m feeling good about my team at this point in most areas. One category I absolutely don’t want to forget about is Saves. One of my favorite players heading into this season, Raisel Iglesias, was just nominated. There’s no way I’m letting him get past me. I take him for $7.5, leaving me $5 of breathing room.

Picks 11 & 12 for $8, or $4 per pick

I’ll take another Cub to play in the outfield with Ian Happ at $4.7 and Jon Gray for $3.0. The $7.7 total is 30-cents below budget and adds to our Flex Account, and puts it at $5.3.

Picks 13 & 14 for $5, or $2.50 per pick

Matt Olson looks good here at $4.8 and so does Trevor Bauer at $3.2 for a total of $8. I went over by $3, but am safe with $2.3 in the tank.

After 14 Picks my team looks like this:

Offense Pitching C- Gary Sanchez SP- Aaron Nola 1B- Freddie Freeman SP- Kyle Hendricks 2B- Brian Dozier RP- Raisel Iglesias 3B- Nolan Arenado RP- N/A SS- Jean Segura P- Jon Gray OF- Khris Davis P- Jameson Taillon OF- Kyle Schwarber P- Trevor Bauer OF- Ian Happ P- N/A UTIL- Matt Olson Bench- 5 Spots to Fill UTIL- N/A

Now comes rounds 15 through 20 where our plan had us targeting players for $2 and $3. Again, we’re trying to snipe guys that the Stars and Scrubs crew have been hoping would be $1 steals. However, I am still feeling a little nervous with only a single relief pitcher. Time to make a move.

Picks 15 thru 20 for $12, or $2 per pick

15) Andrew Miller for $3.3

16) Arodys Vizcaino for $3.9

17) Garrett Richards for $2.1

18) Kenta Maeda for $2

19) Cesar Hernandez for $2

20) Chad Green for $1

For $14.3 I added some quality assets. Of the elite late-inning arms I selected, only Vizcaino really has the potential for saves, and even then his grasp on Atlanta’s closing duties is tenuous. However I will take what I can get from him, and I know that Miller and Green will deliver elite ratios and lots of Ks, which I love. I was also able to add two quality starters with upside in Richards and Maeda, and a valuable leadoff hitter in Cesar Hernandez for next-to-nothing.

The amount I went over budget ate up the rest of my FLEX account, but I’m feeling comfortable approaching my final two picks. I’ll use these next two picks attempting to select some $1 bats to fill out my offense.

Picks 22 and 23 for $2, or $1 per pick

22) Mitch Haniger, $1

23) Randal Grichuk, $1

Wouldn’t you know it? Both of these guys I was targeting were forgotten by my league-mates, and I was able to add some depth to my offense with a couple of lottery tickets. My final roster looks like this:

Offense Pitching C- Gary Sanchez SP- Aaron Nola 1B- Freddie Freeman SP- Kyle Hendricks 2B- Brian Dozier RP- Felipe Rivero 3B- Nolan Arenado RP- Andrew Miller SS- Jean Segura P- Jon Gray OF- Khris Davis P- Jameson Taillon OF- Kyle Schwarber P- Arodys Vizcaino OF- Ian Happ P- Chad Green UTIL- Matt Olson Bench- Trevor Bauer UTIL- Cesar Hernandez Bench- Garrett Richards Bench- Mitch Haniger Bench- Kenta Maeda Bench- Randal Grichuk

Conclusions

First the negatives:

Yes, this was a model draft created in a shallow vacuum.Yes, there will be players I drafted who will be bought above their average price by aggressive owners, and I did not account for this. Also, I understand that there are many possible variants to auction drafts and league sizes, settings, etc. which will heavily impact how league-mates pursue players.

All of this is true. These findings are not meant to exemplify every outcome. I was merely hoping to illuminate a helpful and effective system for budgeting in auction drafts, especially those with $260 budgets. Of course, Fibonacci’s sequence is not limited to the numbers we discussed. And again, the system works because it offers flexibility while also offering helpful benchmarks to mind throughout your draft.

I wanted to show that drafters can abide by Fibonacci’s Sequence to gradually work their way through a fantasy draft with positive results. As I have shown, it is possible to draft a team with two top-tier studs while also acquiring solid assets at every level of a draft. With Fibonacci’s numbers as a guide, it is also possible to budget one’s auction cash while still maintaining the flexibility that allows owners to consistently go after players you’re targeting. Finally, as I have shown, it is a system that ensures owners who abide by its steps will not finish the draft with any unused auction money.

The outcomes that this system provides are essential to a successful auction draft. If anything, you’ll have a lot more fun staying active throughout your draft and sniping players from guys who didn’t follow a certain Italian’s helpful guide.