President Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (Photo illustration: Yahoo News; photos: AP( 2), Getty Images)

WASHINGTON — The 2020 cycle began less than a month ago, but one of the highest profile Republican politicians up for reelection is already feeling the heat as he finds himself faced with a choice between crossing President Trump or angering some of his Senate colleagues.

Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell currently controls the fate of the First Step Act, a bipartisan criminal justice reform push that has the support of Trump but is also vehemently opposed by many Republican senators. McConnell is now in a unique situation, without a clear option to keep everyone in the party happy, and at a time when he is beginning to think about shoring up his base ahead of a coming campaign.

“McConnell is now looking over his right shoulder,” said a Republican source with extensive ties to both the White House and Congress. “It’s very complicated for Mitch from now on.”

The First Step Act would reduce mandatory minimum sentences for drug crimes, certain low-level offenses and instances where a firearm is used. It also includes incentives for inmates to participate in vocational and rehabilitative programs. The bill was crafted by a uniquely bipartisan coalition including Republicans Rand Paul, the junior senator from McConnell’s home state of Kentucky, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and Utah Sen. Mike Lee. It is also backed by prominent Democrats like Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker.

Proponents argue that it gives judges more leeway in sentencing and allows a more compassionate approach to nonviolent offenders. Trump echoed this rationale and emphasized the bipartisan nature of the legislation when he threw his support behind the First Step Act on Nov. 14 with a public event at the White House.

“Did I hear the word ‘bipartisan?’ Did I hear — did I hear that word?” Trump asked, provoking laughs and applause. “I’m thrilled to announce my support for this bipartisan bill that will make our communities safer and give former inmates a second chance at life after they have served their time.”

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Trump also stressed the endorsements the bill has received from some law enforcement organizations, including the Fraternal Order of Police.

Despite the bipartisan support for the First Step Act, it remains controversial, particularly among Republicans who advocate taking a hard line on crime. The legislation has also drawn staunch opposition from the National Sheriffs’ Association, which has argued that it would “release dangerous criminals back into our communities” without necessary services.

In the Senate, Arkansas Republican Tom Cotton has emerged as one of the more outspoken opponents of the legislation, arguing that it could allow some sex offenders to have early release.

With Trump on board, the bill’s backers are increasingly confident it has enough support to pass.

However, so far, McConnell has not allowed it to come to the Senate floor for a vote, and First Step Act supporters on both sides of the aisle have accused him of blocking the legislation. A Democratic Senate aide who has been involved in discussions about the First Step Act told Yahoo News that Cotton and his allies have been “leaning on” McConnell to keep the bill from passing.

“If McConnell were bringing it to vote he would be facing serious division in his caucus,” the aide said.

A former McConnell aide added that any kind of softer approach to drug sentencing is a harder sell in Kentucky due to the ongoing opioid crisis. That presents an obstacle to McConnell’s ability to maintain popularity in his home state as he enters his reelection cycle. The former aide also expressed doubt the Republican Senate conference is solidly behind the bill.

“McConnell tends to move things along when the conference is united,” the former aide said. “It is obvious there is not unity in the conference.”

But appeasing conservative opponents of the legislation would mean crossing Trump, who has a net positive approval rating in Kentucky and wide support among Republicans.

After Trump announced his support for the First Step Act, he aimed a tweet at McConnell and Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer urging them to pass the bill and calling it “a real chance to do something so badly needed in our country.”

And Trump has a personal investment in the bill. A White House official said that Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and senior adviser, is leading the Trump administration’s effort to pass the legislation. Its passage would be the first major victory for Kushner in Congress. Passing the legislation might also benefit Trump’s relationship with the African-American community, giving the president a concrete accomplishment that has long been sought by black leaders.

When asked about the status of the First Step Act, Don Stewart, a spokesperson for McConnell, pointed to comments the majority leader made on Tuesday during a news conference about Senate Republicans’ agenda for the remainder of the year. In those remarks, McConnell indicated he would decide what to do with the bill based on how much support it had among Senate Republicans.

Stewart disputed the claim that McConnell is blocking the legislation by preventing it for coming up for a vote.

“He’s letting his members review and discuss the bill before anybody makes a decision. It’s just premature for anybody to block it,” Stewart said.

However, Stewart also suggested the legislation may not make it to the floor until next year because the Senate currently needs to address the “remaining funding bills for the government” prior to Dec. 7 to avoid a government shutdown.

First Step Act supporters who believe they have enough votes to pass it now are concerned that delaying until the next session would effectively block it, because of the larger Republican majority that was cemented in the midterm elections.

The Democratic Senate aide who has been involved in discussions about the legislation said “it’s totally in Trump’s power” to make McConnell move on the bill now.

“Trump just has to go to McConnell and say, ‘I need this. Do this if you need anything else from me.’ Either that, or threaten to go after him and blow him up with the base,’” the aide explained.

The president has hinted he might be willing to lean on the majority leader. On Monday night, Trump participated in a roundtable about the First Step Act as he campaigned in Mississippi. Trump predicted there would be “a little celebration in Washington fairly soon” about the First Step Act and said there were “more than enough” votes to pass it.

A reporter at the event asked Trump if he would “insist” that McConnell bring the bill to a vote before the end of the year.

“At a certain point, we’ll have a talk,” Trump said of the majority leader. “But if we have the votes, I’m sure that we’ll be voting.”

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