How will Grizzlies approach Jaren Jackson Jr.'s rookie season?

Peter Edmiston | Memphis Commercial Appeal

When you see a swimming pool, do you jump straight in? Sure, it looks beautiful, but what if the water is cold? Is it better to dip a toe cautiously into the water? But how do you get acclimated to the temperature if you don't plunge right in?

Such is the dilemma facing the Grizzlies and rookie standout Jaren Jackson Jr.

As Grizzlies Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations John Hollinger told The Commercial Appeal last month, "I think whatever happens, we want it to happen organically, and not get ahead of ourselves, and make sure we're taking all the right steps on him, and not getting too excited and skipping ahead."

So what are those right steps? What is the proper approach to take with a rookie, especially one you have the highest possible hopes for? Should you throw him in the deep end or ease him in slowly?

Jaren Jackson Jr. stuffs drive blocks shot in NBA Summer League Jaren Jackson Jr. has already showcased a lot of skill early in the Utah Summer League.

Remember that Jackson will be one of the youngest players in the NBA next season. He won't turn 19 until just before training camp gets underway next month. Over the past two decades, there have been 62 players who played in at least half their team's games while being just 19 years old in their rookie season. That's an average of about three such players per season. Barring injury, Jackson certainly will join that list.

Let's go a bit deeper. Of those 62 players, 38 averaged at least 20 minutes per game while 24 averaged 19 or fewer minutes. If we break it down by position, 13 of the 24 players (54 percent) who averaged fewer minutes as a young rookie were big men, while just 10 of the 38 (26 percent) who averaged 20 minutes or more were bigs.

More: What NBA Summer League showed us about Jaren Jackson Jr., Ivan Rabb

Of the 24 players who didn't average 20 minutes per game, six were drafted in the top five of their draft class; all six players happened to be big men. Only two true 19-year-old bigs averaged more than 30 minutes in their rookie seasons: Chris Bosh and Dwight Howard. Even Anthony Davis, a versatile rookie who came into the league brimming with talent and potential, played only 28.8 minutes per game in his first season.

Hollinger cautioned that the Grizzlies would have to be careful in the way they use Jackson.

"We don't want to put him into overtly physical matchups yet because he's 18 and his body is still filling out," he said.

That lack of strength is the biggest hurdle facing young bigs early in their careers. No one enters the league fully prepared to deal with it.

Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jevon Carter throw out first pitch at Redbirds game Memphis Grizzlies draft picks Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jevon Carter throw out first pitches at the Redbirds game on June 22, 2018.

Big men also tend to be somewhat foul-prone early in their career, and they're entering a league that's increasingly moving away from having two true bigs on the floor at once. While the former might end up being an issue for Jackson (it was in college), the latter probably won't be, as the Grizzlies are committed to playing much of the time with two bigs on the floor.

That's the backdrop facing Jackson and the Grizzlies as the season approaches.

Rarely has the team had a player with as much potential as Jackson. It's one thing to have a promising rookie drafted late in the first round, or in the second, as the Grizzlies have had over the past few seasons – those players, while good, typically don't have quite as much potential.

Here are the players the Grizzlies have drafted (or received in a trade) with top-five selections: Pau Gasol, Mike Conley Jr., O.J. Mayo, Hasheem Thabeet, Jackson.

That's it.

Gasol is a likely Hall of Famer; Conley is a star; Mayo and Thabeet are cautionary tales. Greatness or disaster, that's been the outlook, with not much area between.

Starting Jackson and playing him as many minutes as possible is going to be the popular choice with such an acclaimed rookie. But it could lead to fatigue and injury. Jackson showed in Summer League that he still needs to build strength to deal with the pounding he's sure to take, as Hollinger pointed out. Additionally, it's rare that playing rookies big minutes is conducive to winning big. More often than not, their mistakes, both mental and physical, take teams further way from winning situations.

More: Grizzlies management on potential of rookie Jaren Jackson Jr., complaints by Marc Gasol

On the other hand, what if he's the rare exception? What if the exciting possibilities he showed in Summer League are real? If he's the best player at his position, surely he's got to play, regardless of age. Not to do so would be costly to the team. Jackson also potentially has unique versatility on both ends of the floor, versatility that no other player, no matter his experience level, can recreate. A 35-plus percent 3-point shooter who can block shots at the rim and defend on the perimeter – he's the only Grizzlies player who potentially fits that description.

The coaching staff, the training staff and the front office all will need to be on the same page to get the most out of Jackson. How much of him will we see on the court in year one? How much should we see? Getting those answers right is vital to the Grizzlies' future.