WASHINGTON—The dust is taking a long time to settle from the U.S.-China trade breakthrough Saturday at the G20: We still don’t know key details about what the two sides resolved, what they didn’t and on what terms.

Trump administration officials compounded the confusion Monday by sending conflicting messages about some basic points. For example, it took the White House all day to correct top economic adviser Larry Kudlow’s statement that the 90-day clock for the next round of talks would begin Jan. 1. In fact, the administration clarified, it started on Dec. 1. And the administration struggled to explain President Trump’s claim the Chinese have agreed to eliminate tariffs on U.S. auto imports.

But even as investors cheered the broad strokes of an agreement — the Dow Jones industrial average climbed 288 points Monday in a relief rally — American trade hawks pointed to one concrete development that suggested the Trump team will demand a high price from Beijing for a lasting peace. Trump is deputizing U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer to lead talks with the Chinese. That means Beijing will be squaring off against a steely negotiator who has led the administration’s fact-finding into Chinese trading abuses and other forms of economic espionage.

“This is not a stock market guy. This is not a finance guy. This is not somebody looking at general indicators of the economy,” Richard Ellings, president of the National Bureau of Asian Research, tells me. “This is a guy who’s in the nuts and bolts and understands the Chinese system. So that’s a very interesting and strong message.”

And Lighthizer will take over for Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and his team, who hail from the administration’s dovish camp and have tried to strike a deal burying hostilities between the world’s two largest economies. U.S. President Donald Trump surprised Chinese President Xi Jinping with the move when he informed him of it at their Saturday night dinner in Buenos Aires, the Wall Street Journal reports. The paper writes the Chinese had favoured Mnuchin.

“If there’s anyone who can successfully conclude the negotiations, it’s Bob,” Michael Wessel, a member of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a congressional watchdog agency, said in an email. “The last time the U.S. had to deal with a country employing a range of predatory and protectionist policies, it was Japan, and Bob had a prominent role. He’s got the knowledge, the creativity and the commitment to get it done. And right now, he’s got the president’s trust. That’s a powerful combination.”

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Ellings notes the presence of national security officials at the dinner — Trump was also flanked by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, national security adviser John Bolton and National Security Council Asia chief Matt Pottinger — further signalled the administration is viewing the confrontation with China in terms of a broader strategic competition. That would indicate a quick deal that simply, say, narrows the bilateral trade deficit won’t be sufficient.

Yet the Trump team has never spelled out precisely what the Chinese need to offer to achieve a permanent armistice. And Trump has sent a number of tweets hinting a big deal is already near at hand:

Trump’s cheerleading for a deal has some China hawks on edge, especially if the economy turns south as talks drag on. “What I would worry about — and nobody can predict with this president — is that he might be willing to accept something that’s a lot less than what he’s been pushing for and reshape it as a victory,” says Robert Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation.

“That’s possible particularly if the stock market is down, farm exports are down, and he faces continued blow-back from the business community. You could imagine him trying to find some out that allows him to claim progress and save face but get rid of the tariffs and move on.”

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Josh Kallmer — executive vice president for policy at the Information Technology Industry Council, a tech industry trade group — described himself as “cautiously optimistic” the talks will yield fundamental Chinese reforms. He ascribed that sentiment to a seeming change in China’s willingness to engage and to Lighthizer’s appointment. “Having Ambassador Lighthizer at the core of this is a really positive thing, because institutionally he and the USTR have been at the heart of articulating the tapestry of practices and policies that have been making life difficult for our firms,” he said.

In contrast to a negotiated reconciliation, Ellis forecasts a permanent cleavage ahead. “What you might have is a settling in of long-term policies that slowly disengage the U.S. economy from the Chinese economy,” through export controls, investment limits, and more direct action against intellectual property theft. “Instead of high-profile, big-time tariffs, it would be a broad effort oriented around economics and national security that will disengage the two economies.”

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