There has always been a certain frisson about the announcement of England tour parties. It was once an occasion that provoked national debate. "How have they left out Laker ... Trueman ... D'Oliveira ... Gower?" It remains an intriguing moment at the end of the season but it is not so significant as it once was. The selectors' judgment is not quite so final.

We know that they can always swerve if necessary. They now pick their squad in the knowledge that there will be almost as many players in Australia with their development squad, upon whom they can call at any moment throughout the first three Tests of the Ashes series. Moreover, it does not take so long to whisk out an emergency replacement to Melbourne or Sydney at short notice.

Even so, there will have been much agonising among the selectors as they assembled the official tour party for the Test matches against Australia, which will be announced on Monday. Ashley Giles, one of the four selectors, has already hinted that 12 more or less pick themselves. So let us establish who they might be: Cook, Root, Trott, Pietersen, Bell, Bairstow (pack your wicketkeeping gloves, please), Prior, Bresnan (if deemed fit), Broad, Swann, Anderson and Finn (just). This leaves four or possibly five places.

Now the arguments can begin. There are many options among the batsmen, which belies the fact that there is not an outstanding candidate. The most familiar names in the pecking order are James Taylor, Gary Ballance and the one-day stalwarts Eoin Morgan and Ravi Bopara.

However, there is logic in the additional batsman being an opener. In case of injury or loss of form it would be easier to ask Joe Root, say, to bat in the middle order than to promote one of the others up to the top if an opening batsman was suddenly required. This leads to Michael Carberry and Nick Compton.

The selection for the ODIs of Carberry, who acquired some heavyweight advocates towards the end of the season, might be interpreted as his audition for the winter. None too convincingly he compiled a couple of innings of significance at Cardiff and Southampton. At the crease he appeared surprisingly vulnerable. There would be a pronounced trigger movement to the off-side, whereupon his feet often seemed stuck. Once he was bowled around his legs; he always looked an lbw candidate and was surprisingly nervous in the field.

Compton has been confined to the county circuit after he was dropped following the Headingley Test against New Zealand, where he seemed paralysed by the consequences of failing. An active mind allied to fierce ambition can sometimes make batting an agonising process. That looked to be the case for Compton at Headingley. Since then he has batted better than anybody for Somerset, although the competition has not been as fierce as one would expect (or hope). Compton may well be the better bet for a Test match in Australia.

Nor is the selection of the second spinner as straightforward as was first thought. Monty Panesar was earmarked as the best replacement if Graeme Swann was ever indisposed. But Panesar has had a traumatic summer, falling out with Sussex, falling over in Brighton. This opened the door for Simon Kerrigan and James Tredwell. But it has remained ajar.

At The Oval in the final Test, Kerrigan froze to the extent that no captain or coach would dare contemplate him as the solitary spinner in an Ashes Test. Tredwell was carted everywhere by Australia in the ODI series without bowling badly, which is almost as worrying. Clearly the Australians do not regard him as a threat. Moreover, his first-class record for Kent this summer (13 wickets at 55 apiece) is none too reassuring.

Hence we return to Panesar with some trepidation. He is the best English spinner after Swann, but his presence would be a concern in a potentially high-maintenance squad. Touring Australia as the second spinner unlikely to play a Test may be the bon viveur's dream but it can also be a lonely, soul-destroying experience for a sensitive soul. But the choice is Panesar, albeit with reservations and provisos plus a nod to one other spinner. Seldom mentioned in dispatches, but one who has had a good season, which might merit a trip with the development squad, is Middlesex's off-spinner Ollie Rayner.

The additional pace bowlers would expect to start the tour as understudies. Boyd Rankin, after an encouraging ODI series, may have overtaken Chris Tremlett, who was oddly ignored for those games. Graham Onions, the season's leading wicket-taker, offers some of Jimmy Anderson's qualities. Onions exploits helpful conditions superbly and there is the faint possibility that Australia might prefer to play on spicier pitches than normal.

The alternative – or perhaps the addition – to Rankin and Onions would be to select an all-rounder, which would be Chris Woakes, who played in the Oval Test but who was mysteriously omitted from the ODI squad, or Ben Stokes. In the end Stokes may offer more in the longer form of the game.

The selectors can experiment more with their development squad. Among the more interesting possibilities are the left-armers David Willey and Keith Barker, Jamie Overton and Chris Jordan, Rayner, Moeen Ali and Scott Borthwick (returning as a batsman, who bowls a bit) and perhaps most intriguingly of all – and not just because it would annoy the Aussies – Middlesex's opening batsman Sam Robson, who hails from Sydney and played for Australia's Under-19s.