Thailand coach Milovan Rajevac has dashed Australian World Cup dreams before and could do again. The Serbian was in charge of Ghana in 2010 when a 1-1 draw virtually ended Socceroo hopes of a place in the knockout stage. Both teams left the red soil of Rustenburg disappointed: Australia for taking an early lead and then having Harry Kewell doubly punished with a penalty/red card combo for a handball, and the Black Stars for not taking three points in over an hour against ten men. A draw in Melbourne on Tuesday would leave only one team with the blues and it would not be the blue War Elephants. It would also not be as far-fetched as some think for them to leave victorious; an especially far-fetched thought if one looks at Group B and sees the ASEAN side adrift in last place, with two points from nine games and 22 goals in the conceded column.

Yet this is not the same Thailand that delighted in a frustrating draw 2-2 with Australia in Bangkok in November. In that game - the first major public event since the death of the beloved and long-serving King Bhumibol Adulyadej a month earlier - it was the Aussie fans, respectful and supportive, who handled the situation better than their heroes on the pitch. Moments after the final whistle, coach Kiatisuk Senamuang, who bears some resemblance to Tim Cahill, was crying with pride in the bowels of the Rajamangala stadium. He also promised that his team would continue improving all the way to the final group game in Australia.

Australia need to win this encounter. The 2-0 loss in Japan last week leaves Ange Postecoglou’s men in third, level on points with Saudi Arabia but behind on goal difference. Both teams are chasing the second automatic qualification spot after the Samurai Blue took first. If Saudi Arabia beat already-qualified Japan in Jeddah, then Australia also have to win, and win by at least two more goals than the Saudis. Such calculations are not part of the Thai mindset as they head to Melbourne. For a start, Kiatisuk is no longer around. The 43 year-old, who delivered two regional titles and the final stages of qualification for the first time since the turn of the century, has gone. Too many defeats tested the patience of new FA boss Somyot Poompanmuong. Unhappy at public criticism, the man known as Zico resigned in March. Ironically, that could be bad news for the Socceroos. If Zico was coming to Melbourne, he may do what he tried to do against Japan and Iraq, and trust his attacking instincts. That resulted in two 4-0 thrashings.

Replacement Rajevac, who was within a penalty shootout (against Uruguay) of becoming the first coach to lead an African team to the last four of a World Cup, is not going to go down that route. The sober Serb won’t be throwing anything (the kitchen sink, caution to the wind or players) forward unless there is no other choice. More pragmatic than his predecessor, the 63 year-old recognises that a result in Australia would help fans forget Zico. It would also end a painful, though necessary for developmental purposes, stage of qualification on a high. Rajevac came in after one point from seven games and 19 goals conceded. A June debut against the United Arab Emirates looked to have produced a first and famous win until Ali Mabkhout, who did Australia such a delightful favour last week, intervened deep into injury time. Then came a narrow 2-1 loss to Iraq on Thursday, when the Thais sat deep for much of the game and looked to hit on the counter.

Expect something similar on Tuesday and Rajevac may well go for the 4-2-3-1 formation he liked with Ghana and leave two holding midfielders sitting in front of the back four, though the injury to star goalkeeper Kawin Thamsatchanan is a blow. When the occasion calls, like in the second half against Iraq last week, he can go for 3-4-3, looking to use pace and width to get behind the opposition defence.

Theerathon Bunmathan on the left and Tristan Do on the right are perhaps the finest pair of Asian wing-backs this side of Tokyo. Paris-born Do, who came off the bench against Iraq to good effect, is direct, powerful and whips in a wicked ball, though he tends to get caught out of position. With Australia looking vulnerable down the left side, Thailand can cause problems especially if Chanathip Songkrasin sees enough of the ball. The playmaker is starting his J1 League career with Consadole Sapporo well, and is becoming a genuine Asian star. His display against Australia in November showed that he wasn’t all tricks and twists but could make a difference in a big-game situation against big-name opposition. Closely-marked by Iraq, he didn’t have the impact he would have wanted. He should get, and enjoy, a little more space in Melbourne, and that means more chances for striker Teerasil Dangda, who scored twice against the Socceroos in November.

Regardless, Australia will expect three points. That is the likeliest outcome, but this is a more defensive and disciplined - if less exciting - Thailand. Milovan Rajevac would be delighted to break Australian hearts once again.