If North Korea was ever attacked or provoked to attack, even a limited conflict without the use of nuclear weapons would have devastating consequences for both the North and the South. Each side currently has missiles aimed at the other’s capital, ready to launch in retaliation and perhaps kill tens of thousands of innocent civilians. In the midst of conflict, it is believed that a highly desperate North Korea would make use of all of the weapons it has in its arsenal.

In this scenario many thousands of North Koreans would be expected to migrate to China, putting an economic strain on the nation, a price South Korea and allies are likely to willingly pay to reunite families. China already has a large rural population it largely ignores, not to mention multiple ongoing conflicts with minority groups in various regions of the country (i.e. Tibet, Xinjiang). A new population to house and feed would be incredibly costly, which is why Beijing has recently taken steps to ensure refugees can be kept at a minimum.

Many rural North Koreans live in the central and Northern parts of the country near the border with China. Pyongyang, the most populous city in the North, is nearly as close to China as it is to South Korea. Due to propaganda that North Koreans have endured about the South, many refugees would likely be compelled to flee to China as opposed to other places.

In the late 2000s, China began construction on a barbed wire fence to prevent migrants from entering and more recently built multiple refugee settlements near its border with North Korea in case it needs to make use of them in the future.

Since approximately 2013, Chinese military units stationed in the two provinces near North Korea have begun highly publicized military exercises and drills to reinforce existing border security- a practice that would make President Trump salivate. These units would be responsible for halting any attempt by refugees to cross the border. Of course, these military units are not stationed on the border to deter everyday North Koreans, but rather to send a message to Washington and Pyongyang of China’s intentions.

There is even some fear in Beijing that along with refugees entering their borders could come armed North Korean soldiers or even nuclear fallout from the use of weapons. China has built dozens of radiation detection stations near its border with North Korea in recent years.

If North Korean leadership falls, China will have to race with the US and others to seize military weapons and facilities before they are used or fall into the hands of the wrong people. The race to secure facilities comes with its own risk of conflict breaking out. China currently views North Korea as a buffer between themselves and the US-friendly South Korea which has tens of thousands of American troops in its borders at any given time. China fears that they could one day directly border a US ally if the Koreas were to unite.