It has been three months since the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan yet the spread of the disease is still peaking in other countries. Everyday we see a burgeoning trend in global coronavirus infections, with the exception of China and South Korea who just flattened the curve. The hysteria amid the pandemic has the people questioning, “when will this end?”

The US, UK and Sweden are feeling the burden and repercussions of the pandemic so that they contemplated on resorting to herd immunity. Considering that not a single epidemiologist across the globe is fully confident and aware of how the novel coronavirus works, this approach to solving the crisis spells danger not just for the herd but more so for the country’s health care system and the economy.

But what exactly is herd immunity? There is a thick literature on this subject if you care to search online. Particularly this article from MIT Technology Review provides an in-depth understanding of the topic; so before you continue reading this essay, I suggest you educate yourself first lest the succeeding statements will cause unnecessary provocations.

Implications of Herd Immunity

Suppose the WHO imposes the herd immunity approach in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, neither community quarantine nor lockdown is necessary. The financial markets are saved from free fall, businesses continue their smooth operations, workers bring home the bacon, students learn and socialize in normal school settings, social order remains undisrupted — and when all these are in place, capitalists are happy.

Considering that high-risked persons, i.e. the elderly, those with critical health conditions, are isolated, what is the probability that the herd won’t suffer severely from the infections? How high is the chance of immunity and how low is the mortality rate?

Reliable data and adequate information about the novel coronavirus are the sine qua non in the recourse to herd immunity. Without these, the move to such an approach is like crossing the rubicon. While the high-risked are prioritized and given due treatment, the unprecedented health complications (from the herd) resulting from miscalculated exposure to the virus will cripple health care systems — a repercussion that is most likely dismissed by state leaders in hopes of witnessing a natural immunity among the ‘healthy’ people. Our antibodies function differently to a certain stimulus. They either fail us or come to our aid. An overall healthy disposition is a necessary condition for natural immunity, but that is not an assurance.

UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson shifted measures from herd immunity to containment and mitigation. Now, the UK is on lockdown for a certain period. Some states in the US are following suit amid experts’ call for national lockdown. But Sweden? Sweden “keeps calm and carries on“. As of March 29, the country has 3,046 confirmed cases and 92 deaths. This accounts for a 3% mortality rate. With a total population of ~10 million (as of 2018), Sweden’s infection-death ratio is nothing short of controllable. This may not be a problem for a highly-advanced economy whose health care is government-funded and universal; but the country is facing an existential lack in medical personnel. How will it fare once infections surge amid government’s complacency? In its attempt to save its economy before its people, Sweden might have just sealed its tragic fate.

Vaccine and a Take on Responsibility

Research on COVID-19 vaccine is underway in China. But that is still beyond the horizon. If it happens, the availability of vaccines will still be in a year’s time or so. Looking at the trajectory of the pandemic, we apparently do not have the luxury to squander time and resources. Otherwise, we will be at the mercy of this virus.

It is a state’s primary responsibility to protect the security and survival of its citizens. If vaccines are not available for herd immunity, then the application of natural immunity amid the lack of adequate data should not be at any state’s disposal. Italy’s initial response of complacency despite a number of confirmed cases on its soil puts its citizens in a horrible situation today. Albeit having one of the best medical facilities in the world, Italy is being debilitated by the unrelenting demand in medical treatment. On March 9, PM Giuseppe Conte put the country on lockdown.

Apart from the state, it is every person’s — irrespective of race, age, gender, nationality, social status — moral obligation and social responsibility to help one another in crucial times, especially in times like this. We can address this differently as long as our universal aim remains true and unaltered, that is the survival of one another. Our collective effort in social distancing, quarantine and isolation will soon bear fruit.

As popularized by the famed TV series, “Game of Thrones”:

Featured image: Runners take part in the Bath Half marathon run in Bath, Britain on Sunday. The UK government has not yet banned large gatherings. Photo: EPA