UFC 201 Robbie Lawler vs. Tyron Woodley Preview

Philips Arena

Atlanta, GA

10:00 pm EST

Overview:

Robbie Lawler looks to successfully defend his title for the third time and is coming off of a split decision victory over Carlos Condit that was awarded Fight of the Night honors. Tyron Woodley is fighting for the first time since his split decision victory over Kelvin Gastelum way back in January of 2015. Woodley earned himself a shot at the belt after defeating Gastelum, but instead of taking fights in the meantime, he chose to wait patiently for his time to come. Look for fireworks in this fight, as both fighters are known for their knockout power. Lawler has a record of 27-10 with 20 knockouts and Woodley has a record of 15-3 with six knockouts.

Keys for Lawler:

Lawler should use his top-notch head movement to open up counters. Lawler picked Rory MacDonald apart with head movement in his first title defense, before eventually winning by TKO in the final round after smashing MacDonald’s nose to pieces. He is an expert of constantly moving and never giving his opponent a clear shot. The way Lawler bounces around on his toes helps him to stay light on his feet and avoid incoming shots before countering with his own strikes.

According to UFC.com, Lawler has avoided 63 percent of the strikes he’s faced in his career. He needs to avoid Woodley’s strikes in order to stay on his feet. Woodley might look to go for takedowns if he’s losing in the standing exchanges, but Lawler has amazing takedown defense. Lawler’s career takedown percentage isn’t all that astounding at 67 percent, but that number is misleading because his game has evolved so much since he began fighting in 2003.

Keys for Woodley:

Woodley’s main concern in this fight should be defending Lawler’s strikes. Woodley needs to avoid the big kicks from Lawler’s left leg. If Lawler is able to establish his leg-kicks and body-kicks early, it’s going to set up a big head-kick that will likely end the fight for Woodley. According to UFC.com, Woodley’s career striking defense stands at 59 percent. Woodley is an astounding wrestler, although he’s only attempted five takedowns in his career. Usually he gets his opponents to the ground with his fists.

While Lawler is mainly a standing striker, Woodley has a more well-rounded attack. Woodley lands 48 percent of his strikes from a standing position, 37 percent from the clinch position and 15 percent from the ground-and-pound position. While it’s unlikely that Lawler will attempt any takedowns in this fight; Woodley should be able to squash any potential attempts. Woodley’s career takedown defense is an incredible 92 percent.

Deliberation:

Usually when a fighter has a year-long layoff, it’s considered a negative thing, but in Woodley’s case it could actually help. The fact that Woodley’s known this whole time that he’d be getting a title shot, and the fact that he’s been able to watch Lawler defend his belt against other fighters should give him a strategic edge in this fight. The fight will likely be a technical, striking match-up and Woodley has had the time to study Lawler’s habits. However, Lawler thrives in stand-up wars. All one has to do is simply watch any of Lawler’s last three fights and see how he pushes through in the late rounds and keeps coming forward no matter what. Expect an extremely entertaining fight. It’s hard to predict whether someone will get knocked out, or if the fight will be a five-round brawl. Either way, expect fireworks.

Prediction:

Tyron Woodley defeats Robbie Lawler via Split Decision

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