Former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke has fielded a lot of questions about his plans since dropping out of the race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination — some of them posed by himself.

“What am I doing next in life? I’m knocking on Aylene’s door. That’s what I’m doing next,” he said Saturday, when I caught up with him in a pleasant suburban subdivision in northwest Fort Bend County.

It was a beautiful afternoon and O’Rourke was in high spirits, enthusing about the commitment of the volunteers who had responded to his call for action last weekend, as well as the diversity of the district they were exploring.

“It’s the story we tell ourselves about America, but actually Houston lives it!” the El Pasoan said.

The aforementioned Aylene wasn’t home, so O’Rourke wrote her a note on a flier for Democrat Eliz Markowitz, who faces Republican Gary Gates in a Jan. 28 special election runoff for a Texas House seat.

Then he turned his attention to his next project: a 98-year-old voter named Myrtle.

It was O’Rourke’s second visit to the district since leaving the presidential race, and the first since he formally launched his new Powered by People initiative, a political action committee that seeks to organize grassroots volunteers from across the state to focus on the most important races in Texas.

The special election in House District 28 — formerly represented by Republican John Zerwas, who retired in August — qualifies because Democrats hope to retake the Texas House in this year’s general election, which would require winning nine seats in addition to holding the 12 they picked up in the 2018 midterm election. For Markowitz to win, or come close, would be an early indicator of the Democrats’ prospects.

“On January 28th, we’ll understand the landscape a little bit better heading into November,” said Odus Evbagharu, her campaign manager.

Republicans are confident about their prospects. In an interview, Gates suggested that the Democrats’ focus on the race may even have proved counterproductive.

“They probably bit off maybe a bit more than what they should have,” he said. “People understand what’s at stake.”

Gates said he had begun block-walking in August, figuring that the effort would distinguish him from his fellow Republican candidates, none of whom would be eager to spend hours a day in the Texas heat humbling themselves before the electorate. As of Monday, he said, he had knocked on 16,650 doors himself.

Markowitz is a clear underdog, if only because the district was drawn to favor Republicans.

The Democrat, an educator by background, finished in first place in the special election itself, winning 39 percent of the vote to 28 percent for Gates. But, put differently, Republicans won 61 percent of the votes cast in November. Gates was one of six GOP candidates on the ballot, whereas Markowitz was the only Democrat.

In 2018, Republican Ted Cruz carried the district by just 3 points — but Zerwas was re-elected by 8 points. Two years earlier, Republican Donald Trump carried House District 28 by 10 points.

“I could be made to look like a fool for saying this, but it’s really not a good district for Democrats,” said Craig Murphy, a Republican consultant who is working for Gates.

Historical trends, Murphy argued, favor Republicans both in the special election and in the 2020 general election. The 2018 midterm election saw a blue wave in Texas, in his view, as a result of the same pendulum effect that helped Republicans pick up 22 seats in the Texas House in 2010, two years into Barack Obama’s presidency. In a presidential re-election year, Murphy expects the pendulum to swing back a bit.

“You can’t beat the trends of history unless you have done something new, and this is the same old stuff that they’re doing,” Murphy said, referring to Democrats.

“To me, it just looks like Battleground Texas all over again,” he added, referring to the 2014 push led by national progressives to “turn Texas blue,” which worked out poorly for Texas Democrats.

Democrats have a different take. They say the Texas GOp is unraveling in full view of the general public, just as the state electorate is coming to life, thanks in large part to O’Rourke’s strong showing in his 2018 campaign to unseat Cruz.

Democratic voters in Fort Bend County say they are energized by Gov. Greg Abbott’s decision to opt out of the refugee resettlement program.

“The No. 1 issue that came up this past weekend was the dysfunction and lack of humanity that the current administration is showing,” Markowitz told me.

“Abbott’s or Trump’s?” I asked.

“Both,” she said.

Although O’Rourke fell short of overtaking Cruz in a 2018 campaign that galvanized many Democrats, it helped Democrats sweep Fort Bend’s countywide races, leaving behind a robust volunteer network.

“I’m one of the millions that he got up off the couch,” said Dan Kouder, an automation engineer whose Katy home served as Powered by People’s pop-up home base this weekend.

“It was an amazing thing to come out of the shadows, to understand that we’re not alone,” he continued. “And not only are we out of the shadows, but now we know we can win.”

O’Rourke’s efforts may not be sufficient, in this Republican-leaning district. But his presence in Fort Bend County this past weekend was a shot in the arm for Democrats, and a reminder to Republicans that in the wake of the 2018 midterm elections, they’ll have to put in the work to win.

erica.grieder@chron.com