“This will be a very tough vote for her. She will make people unhappy no matter what she does,” said Jennifer Duffy, a nonpartisan analyst of Senate races at The Cook Political Report . “There is no upside.”

Now, with a potential impeachment vote in the Senate looming, the longtime Republican senator is fighting for her political life in what could be the most competitive Senate race in the country.


Once upon a time, Collins was the most popular politician in Maine and one of the most popular senators in the country. Last month, two polls found her job approval rating had plummeted, giving her the second-worst grade of any senator among constituents.

Next year, she is poised to face her most serious Democratic challenger ever — the Maine House speaker, who outraised Collins by more than a million dollars in the third quarter.

Besides President Trump, there may not be a politician more jammed up by impeachment than Collins.

A recent poll by a Democratic-leaning firm crystallized the position Collins is in: If she is faced with an impeachment trial and votes to keep Trump in office, she would be poised to lose to a Democrat by 7 percentage points. If, however, she votes to remove Trump from office, she could face a Republican primary and lose badly.

For now, Collins is walking the line, attempting to keep her reputation as a moderate in a state that leans Democratic — both of Maine’s US representatives are Democrats, and Senator Angus King, an independent, caucuses with Democrats. Indeed, Collins is the sole Republican remaining among the 33 representatives and senators from New England.


“It’s important not to prejudge until we have the entire picture,” Collins recently told Politico after a top US diplomat reportedly offered incriminating testimony against Trump. “I am very likely to be a juror, so to make a predetermined decision on whether or not to convict a president of the United States does not fulfill one’s constitutional responsibilities.”

But that neutral positioning is insufficient for some voters.

Judy McGeorge, 63, a realtor from Ellsworth, said she is “totally done with Susan Collins,” particularly after the Kavanaugh vote.

When asked about a potential impeachment vote, McGeorge said, “I am sure she will disappoint me again.”

Susan Collins’s likely Democratic opponent next year, Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon, blasted the senator for staying mum on impeachment. Robert F. Bukaty/File 2017/Associated Press

Collins’s likely Democratic opponent next year, Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon, blasted the senator for staying mum on impeachment.

“One of the real challenges that Mainers see with Senator Collins right now is that we don’t know where she stands on the most pressing issues, and we deserve to know,” Gideon said in a telephone interview. “There is a sense from Mainers that this is the time we actually need to see strong leadership from her that is lacking and that is very, very important.”

This is long before the Senate contest takes off. The political ad tracking firm Advertising Analytics believes $55 million will be spent on television, print, and digital advertising in the Maine contest. For context, $65 million was spent collectively for all 2018 political races in Maine, including an open seat for governor and a nationally watched congressional race.


While Gideon has a primary, she has blown past all off of her Democratic rivals, and even Collins, in the last three months of fund-raising. Gideon raised $3.2 million in the third quarter of the year, beating the $2.1 million Collins raised in the same period. Still, Collins had $7.1 million in the bank compared with Gideon’s $2.7 million.

How intense is the campaign with still a year left before the general election? Both Gideon and Collins already began television advertising last month. That’s unusual, even in a heated contest.

“We are already seeing a recognition from people from both parties that the path for Democrats to flip the Senate goes through Maine,” said Duffy, the Senate analyst.

Despite her reluctance to talk about impeachment, Collins has criticized several of the president’s more controversial statements and actions.

When Trump told White House reporters he would like to see China investigate former vice president Joe Biden and his family, Collins said it was “clearly wrong” and “appalling.” She has also called Trump’s decision to remove US troops from Syria “terribly unwise.” She also became the first Republican to oppose the latest federal judge under Senate consideration.

Several people familiar with Maine politics raised the prospect of Collins losing a GOP primary if she moves to oust the president in a Senate trial.

Former governor Paul LePage recently told Colby College Republicans he was open to a future run, though another bid for governor is more likely, according to his advisers. Robert F. Bukaty/File 2018/Associated Press

The Democratic-leaning poll last month, conducted by Public Policy Polling, found that if Collins voted to remove Trump, she would lose a Republican race against Shawn Moody, the 2018 Republican nominee for governor, or Paul LePage, the two-term former governor. LePage endorsed Collins over the summer. He recently told Colby College Republicans he was open to a future run, though another bid for governor is more likely, according to his advisers.


The primary election is slated for June 9.

“I fully expect Collins will get a competitive primary challenge if she votes to remove Trump,” said Mark Brewer, a political science professor at the University of Maine.

It’s an unusual position for Collins, who was first elected to the Senate in 1996. In her most recent reelection — 2014 — she didn’t have a primary challenge and faced just nominal competition in the general election, winning with 68 percent of the vote.

Collins’s staff didn’t respond to a request for an interview, but a spokesman noted that she is often ranked as the most bipartisan member of the Senate.

“They say those who walk in the middle of the road get hit from both sides, and that has never been truer. Senator Collins is constantly being criticized by extremists on the far left and the far right, yet she has never wavered,” Collins spokesman Kevin Kelley said.

That’s just the right message for some voters.

George Cooper, 65, of Vassalboro said the expected impeachment vote wouldn’t override Collins’s 22 years in the Senate.


“Susan Collins is a good senator, a moderate like me,” Cooper said. “She is with Trump 50 percent of the time. The impeachment vote is irrelevant. I have no problem with her.”

James Pindell can be reached at james.pindell@globe.com.