EARLY JULY EL NIÑO UPDATE - WEST PACIFIC Twin Cyclones form in West Pacific thanks to Westerly Wind Burst Phenomenon. By David Sellin

Published: June 30, 2015

June 30, 2015 Views: 4,619







EARLY JULY EL NIÑO UPDATE - WEST PACIFIC Twin Cyclones form in West Pacific thanks to the westerly wind burst phenomenon..





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Related Finger's crossed we are in for an active tropical season with more of this. Last year's epic Hurricane Marie swell. 56th Street, Newport Beach CA. Photo: Marc Beaty

Animation showing both TD Chan-Hom and TS 25 spinning near the equator in the Western Pacific. earth.nullschool.net

Forecasted track for Tropical Storm Chan Hom in the West Pacific (Northern Hemisphere). CIMMS

Forecasted track for Tropical Storm 25 in the West Pacific (Southern Hemisphere). CIMMS

Low-level wind anomalies between 5N-5S from early March through Mid May. Westerly wind anomalies are in red/orange shading. Easterly wind anomalies are in blue shading. CPC

Long range GFS (Global Forecast System) model guidance showing tropical activity flaring up in equatorial Eastern Pacific in roughly 10-14 days. NOAA



A strong westerly wind burst is accompanied by twin Cyclones in the West Pacific.





We all know that El Nino is present this year and recently we've seen a fairly rare, but somewhat major, Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) event in the Western Pacific. As a result, we've seen two Tropical Storms develop, with swell/surf potential for areas in the Western and Central Pacific, along with potentially enhancing El Nino.These WWBs support El Nino conditions by setting off a Kelvin Wave which moves the warm water eastward, a factor that continues to scream that we’ll see an active East Pacific hurricane swell season among other global climate phenomena common during El Nino years. During early March and early May, westerly wind bursts were observed between 140ºE and 180º and in the last couple of weeks, westerly wind anomalies were evident across the western equatorial Pacific.As a result of these westerly wind bursts (WWB), Tropical Storm Chan-Hom has developed in the Northern Hemisphere, to the west of the Marshall Islands. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm 25 has formed in the Southern Hemisphere and is set to move over the Solomon Islands in the next day or so.TS 25 will be sending plenty of swell but also strong winds and bad weather across the Solomon Islands the next few days. After that, it does not really look like much of a swell maker anywhere else.TS Chan-Hom does have potential to send a decent size Southerly swell to Japan and the surrounding areas, as well as some very rare WSW swell to the Hawaiian Islands next week. There's also an outside chance Chan-Hom re-curves in the NPAC and sends some NW'erly swell to Hawaii and the U.S. West Coast but we'll have to wait and see about that.This year’s somewhat unprecedented WWB activity, including the recent burst, continues to support the development of moderate to strong El Nino conditions. Positive equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean as well. NOAA estimates that there is a greater than 90% chance El Nino will continue through the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 Winter.Interestingly enough, looking ahead on some of the longer range model guidance, the GFS (Global Forecast System) does show a new tropical system flaring up in the equatorial Eastern Pacific in roughly 10-14 days or so. While confidence is low on a forecast this far in the future, particularly when looking at tropical activity, it will be fun to watch over the next couple weeks.You can find all the numbers on the latest Climate Prediction Center's June El Nino update here and the next El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostics Discussion by the Climate Prediction Center is scheduled for July 9.