By J.T. Young - June 20, 2013

By antagonizing liberals, revelation of NSA’s secret surveillance is Obama's most potentially damaging scandal. While scandals suddenly have become its regular reoccurrence, the administration’s new political threat sets the latest apart. For a White House that has strived to, and thrived on, battle with its enemies, it would be supremely ironic if it has now inadvertently picked one with its closest friends.

As the administration's scandals have multiplied, they have also begun to differentiate. Three play directly to opponents' worst image of the White House. The IRS's political profiling directly targeted conservative groups. The Benghazi debacle demonstrated weakness on defense in its origin and a strong political focus in its aftermath. And the HHS's "solicitation" of private sector groups was a simple shakedown to fund the most emblematic of the administration's mistaken policies.

However DOJ's "investigation" of reporters was different. Of course, targeting a Fox News reporter smacked of conservative pinpointing, but targeting the press in general signaled to some liberals that a line had been crossed.

Nor was it the first time the Administration had crossed it. Last fall, the White House picked a fight, but forgot to pack the facts, in a high-profile run-in with the Washington Post's Bob Woodward. To choose a fight with a liberal icon, was questionable then. To be exposed taking on the fourth estate again, not only resurrected last fall’s memory, but eerily resonated with how Woodward had won his reputation in the first place: confronting a White House misusing its power for political purposes.

If the DOJ episode sowed seeds of liberal doubt, the latest revelation in the administration’s scandal hit parade only irrigates them. From what we now know – admittedly only a fraction – the NSA obtained a secret court order to run a sweeping surveillance program, monitoring electronic communications nationally.

Liberal reaction has been swift. Its standard bearer, the New York Times, wrote in an editorial: “…[T]he Obama administration issued the same platitude it has offered every time President Obama has been caught overreaching in the use of his powers…The administration has now lost all credibility on this issue. Mr. Obama is proving the truism that the executive branch will use any power it is given and very likely abuse it.”

Underscoring its outrage, liberalism has done what it traditionally does – file suit – via its legal arm, the ACLU, against the NSA. To understand that rage, we must recognize that both the DOJ and NSA scandals strike the heart of American liberalism’s heritage, just as the NY Times and ACLU responses embody it.

American liberals are historically and inherently suspicious of executive power. Long outside the political mainstream, they originally sought means to counter its power –media and courts being their main weapons. The immediate liberal response via both should give this administration real pause.

Already having a large and motivated number of enemies, the White House relies on and cultivates a countervailing number of supporters. The last thing they need is more enemies. And the thing they need least of all is for some of those enemies to be their former best friends: liberals.

Liberal loyalty to Obama has been remarkable. When other members of his coalition – women, black, Hispanic, 18-29 year old, union, low income, and urban voters – all fell in their level of support for Democrats in 2010’s disastrous midterm election that cost Obama the House, liberals increased their support for Democrats by 3%.

When Obama won reelection by a much narrower margin (3.8%) in 2012, liberals increased their percentage of the electorate by 3% -- more than any other of Obama’s core constituencies.

Next year’s midterm elections carry huge risks for Obama. If the last midterm was a debacle, despite solid liberal support, imagine the next midterm without it. If liberals just stayed home, it would be an effective conservative gain – and Obama can rest assured, as 2010 showed, that conservatives will not stay home. If liberals actually responded in opposition, then the negative electoral impact would be double.

If you could identify what the White House’s second term agenda still is, it would be dead in the water. The economy is still underperforming, the administration lost its last fiscal fight, and its signature accomplishment – Obamacare – gets progressively worse marks. If ever an administration needed a hug, the time is now, and if ever there was a constituency to give it, it would be liberals. Yet, the White House risks pushing them away.

Scandal revelations are simultaneously building on each other and tearing down the administration. They are making the most sinister interpretation of each sandal progressively more believable, and the administration’s explanations of them less so.

However you interpret the scandals themselves, it is impossible to not see them as extremely politically dangerous and coming at the worst possible time for this administration’s second term. Obama can ill afford to have liberals disaffected just when he most needs them.