German chancellor will come armed with facts to avert a trade war but the impulsive US leader is unlikely to be swayed

Angela Merkel travels to Washington on Friday armed with binders of facts and figures aimed at averting a trade war between the EU and the US – but little hope of swaying an intransigent Donald Trump, who remains convinced that their trading relationship is biased in Europe’s favour.

Officials accompanying Merkel will try to convince the US president that America’s trade deficit with Germany is not only shrinking but also determined by factors beyond the chancellor’s control. They will remind Trump that America exports more cars made by German companies on American soil than it imports vehicles made in Germany.

But government officials in Berlin concede they are now resigned to the current exemption on US tariffs on steel and aluminium coming to an end on 1 May – despite last-ditch lobbying efforts to extend the exemption and a German-led complaint over the issue to the World Trade Organization.

German steel manufacturers have downplayed concerns, but there are fears that the move could trigger a cycle of counter-tariffs, and the EU has already threatened tariffs on imports such as whisky, motorbikes and jeans. “The threat of punitive tariffs creates a serious endurance test for the transatlantic relationship,” the Federation of German Industries (BDI) said in a statement.

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The German government is adamant that the EU’s current tariff regime is not unfairly skewed against American interests, but it is starting to appear more open to a wholesale renegotiation of the terms of trade – a sign of Berlin’s growing helplessness in the face of Trump’s bulldozer approach to dealmaking, and Merkel’s continued failure to get a grip on her impulsive US counterpart.



“The US president’s new political style is making it difficult to create a pragmatic and sober dialogue, not just for Germany,” Peter Beyer, the German government’s new transatlantic coordinator, told the Guardian.

The German chancellor has had to witness her standing in Washington diminish dramatically over the course of the last 18 months. Merkel was seemingly anointed as the torchbearer for liberal democracy by the outgoing Barack Obama in November 2016, but her closeness to Trump’s Democratic predecessor has turned her into an easy target for the administration, which continues to publicly agitate against Germany’s trade surplus and low defence spending.

The two leaders’ body language during Merkel’s trip to Washington in March 2017 betrayed a distinct lack of chemistry, and Merkel and Trump reportedly went almost three months without speaking over the phone before late March this year.

Officials in Berlin complain about a lack of direct channels of communication to the White House: until the former Fox News contributor Richard Grenell was confirmed on Thursday as Trump’s ambassador to Berlin, the position was vacant for fifteen months.

Play Video 1:23 Five touching moments between Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron – video

In the meantime, a dynamic French president has moved quickly to fill the void left by the retreating German chancellor: Merkel arrives after Emmanuel Macron’s three-day display of hand-holding, cheek-kissing intimacy with Trump.

“How jealous must Merkel be about this kiss?” asked the German tabloid Bild this week, next to a photograph of Macron pecking Trump on the cheek.

“France currently has a considerably higher standing in Washington than Germany,” said Jana Puglierin of the German Council on Foreign Relations. “The French are seen as more constructive, more transactional, more proactive on counter-terrorism, whereas the German attitude looks nostalgic and moralising.”

In Berlin policy circles, there is still hope that Macron and Merkel can work on the US president as a team, with many regarding this week’s double visit as a joint strategy to bring a European agenda to American shores.

“The current roles play to the two European leaders’ strengths: Macron is doing the cooking, while Merkel is washing up the dishes,” said Tyson Barker, a Berlin-based researcher at the Aspen Institute thinktank. In a city like Berlin, where close relations with America have historically been seen as a prerequisite for political stability, messages from Washington are awaited with more nervousness than in Paris.

“Merkel is handicapped by domestic opinion while Macron is not,” said Ulrich Speck, an expert on German-American relations. “Germans hate Trump and think the chancellor should embody their feelings. The French don’t like Trump but are much less emotional on the US.” The German chancellor, Speck predicted, would “push the reset button” during Friday’s working visit.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Angela Merkel watches Donald Trump during a joint news conference at the White House in March 2017. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Yet ahead of the trip it has mainly been Trump who has set the agenda. German officials originally hoped they could use the trip to persuade Trump not to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement, which comes up for review on 12 May. But, as Macron conceded on Wednesday, such hopes appear to be in vain.

Merkel’s team have also found themselves on the back foot over a trade dispute around the Nord Stream 2 Russian pipeline project, Germany’s involvement in which was harshly criticised by Trump this month. Merkel has since adapted her language over the project and will try to remind the US president that Russian gas makes up only a third of Germany’s consumption.

As with the debate over the trade deficit, the German chancellor’s power to change the status quo around Nord Stream 2 remains limited – not an ideal opening gambit for the kind of dealmaking process apparently favoured by Trump.

In Berlin, hopes remain high that Merkel’s more policy-focused manner of dealing with Donald Trump can yet complement Macron’s personal charm offensive.

But after the French president showed this week that he is perfectly capable of playing good cop and bad cop all by himself, the German chancellor’s precise role in Franco-German tandem looks less clear than before.