Dave Birkett

Detroit Free Press

Fast facts

When: 4:25 p.m. today.

Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.

TV/radio: Fox (Channel 2 in Detroit); WXYT-FM (97.1).

Line: Cardinals by 1 1/2.

Injury report

LIONS

OUT: DT Nick Fairley (knee), G Larry Warford (knee).

QUESTIONABLE: RB Reggie Bush (ankle).

PROBABLE: TE Eric Ebron (hamstring), TE Joseph Fauria (ankle), S James Ihedigbo (back), WR Calvin Johnson (ankle), C Don Muhlbach (ankle), TE Brandon Pettigrew (foot), DE Devin Taylor (knee), T LaAdrian Waddle (knee).

CARDINALS

OUT: DT Ed Stinson (toe).

QUESTIONABLE: LB Desmond Bishop (hamstring).

PROBABLE: LB Lorenzo Alexander (knee), S Deone Bucannon (quadriceps), RB Andre Ellington (foot, hip), RB Stepfan Taylor (calf), NT Dan Williams (elbow).

Three story lines to watch

Top dogs

There's no better matchup in the NFL today than the 7-2 Lions against the 8-1 Cardinals. Surprising division leaders, the Lions and Cardinals have the best records in the NFC, and the winner of Sunday's game will have the inside track on a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs.

The teams took different approaches to the week, with Lions coach Jim Caldwell preaching it's just another game while Cardinals coach Bruce Arians said, "Hell, yeah," when asked if he's embracing what's at stake.

"The NFL, they seem like they're geniuses in the way they schedule these games, but they get lucky," Lions safety Glover Quin said. "Nobody would have picked Arizona-Detroit as the marquee matchup of the NFL in Week 11, but NFL gets lucky and good teams play good and have good records, and sometimes teams that you don't expect to be very good play good and have good records, so you have games where, hey man, Arizona and Detroit is the marquee matchup."

Pitter Pat

Calvin Johnson didn't look the least bit rusty in his return from a sprained ankle last week, when he caught seven passes for 113 yards in a win over the Miami Dolphins.

Johnson outdueled a good cornerback in Brent Grimes last week, but his work will be doubly difficult against Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie. Peterson, finally healthy after battling a sprained ankle early this season, should draw the primary assignment on Johnson, who had a big game against Peterson in a loss to Arizona last year.

"I think you always trust Calvin," offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said. "Certainly, (Peterson has) certain traits that help him in that matchup. He's big, so he's got a little bit more size than maybe some other corners. He's one of the top athletes in the game, so it's really going to be a fun matchup to watch."

Changing of the guard

Larry Warford is out and Travis Swanson is in at right guard for the Lions.

Swanson, a rookie third-round pick, saw the first extended action of his career last week after Warford sprained his knee. Swanson will start today against a big, physical Cardinals team that blitzes as much as anyone in the NFL.

Know the foe: Arizona Cardinals (8-1)

Coach: Bruce Arians (27-10 overall, 18-7 with Cardinals)

Key players: QB Drew Stanton, WR Larry Fitzgerald, RB Andre Ellington, CB Patrick Peterson, DE Calais Campbell

Last game: Beat the St. Louis Rams, 31-14

Last meeting: 2013: Cardinals 25, Lions 21

The buzz: The Cardinals can stake claim to being the best team in the NFL right now. They've won five straight and sit alone atop the NFC West despite a myriad of injury problems that have cost them several key players. Stanton, a former Lion from Michigan State and Farmington Hills Harrison, takes over at quarterback this week for Carson Palmer, who tore his ACL last Sunday. Stanton is completing just 49.5% of his passes, but he's playing turnover-free football and has plenty of weapons by his side. Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and rookie John Brown form a dominant receiver trio, and Ellington is a playmaker, albeit one hampered by injury most of the year. On defense, the Cardinals blitz more than anyone in the NFL and have two big, long, playmaking cornerbacks they can rely on in Peterson and Antonio Cromartie. Former Lion Larry Foote (Michigan, Detroit Pershing) is enjoying a renaissance of a season with 48 tackles at middle linebacker.

Dave Birkett's scouting report

Lions' run offense vs. Cardinals' run defense

Reggie Bush is questionable to play today, and it might behoove the Lions to sit him this week and get his tender ankle healthy for the stretch run.

Bush has had a down year while battling injuries, and the Lions haven't run the ball great overall (77.8 ypg, 31st in the NFL). Joique Bell did show flashes of life last week, when he ran hard in a small number of carries. But the Lions need more out of him and Theo Riddick against a good Cardinals defense.

Arizona is third in the NFL against the run at 78.6 yards per game, and their big, physical front could cause problems for a Lions team that's starting rookie Travis Swanson at right guard today. Nosetackle Dan Williams is a space eater, and end Calais Campbell is solid against the run.

Edge: Cardinals

Lions' pass offense vs. Cardinals' pass defense

Calvin Johnson was his old, dominant self in his return from a sprained ankle last week, catching seven passes for 113 yards and scoring one long touchdown, and the Lions need him to be just as good today.

The Cardinals have two of the best cornerbacks in the game in Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie, and if history is any indication they'll match Peterson one-on-one with Johnson much of the day. Last year, Johnson had a big game against Peterson (116 yards, 2 TDs), and with as much as the Cardinals blitz, there should be opportunities downfield.

The Lions have to protect Matthew Stafford up front to give him time to throw deep, and it'll help that tight ends Eric Ebron and Joseph Fauria are back in the lineup. Arizona gives up the third-most passing yards per game (274.2), but that number is skewed by Peyton Manning's nearly 500-yard passing day in their only loss of the season.

Edge: Lions

Cardinals' run offense vs. Lions' run defense

The Cardinals haven't gotten much production out of their rushing game this year, but they may lean on it more than usual with Drew Stanton at quarterback today.

Stanton, who takes over for the injured Carson Palmer, can make plays with his feet, and Andre Ellington is an explosive weapon who's been hobbled by a foot injury much of the year. Ellington is the NFL's 10th-leading rusher with 582 yards, but he maybe more dangerous as a receiver out of the backfield.

The Lions have been impossible to run on all year. They're second in the league in rush defense (71.3 ypg) and have a destructive force in the middle of the line in Ndamukong Suh. Arizona has some holes up front, particularly at left guard, where Ted Larsen has struggled.

Edge: Lions

Cardinals' pass offense vs. Lions' pass defense

Stanton is only completing 49.5% of his passes, but he's taking good care of the ball and has a knack for making big plays. He's helped, of course, by a deep group of receivers.

The Cardinals will use plenty of four- and five-receiver sets, and while they'll take chances downfield, last year they leaned heavily on the quick passing game. Larry Fitzgerald (44 catches, 625 yards) is as reliable as ever and Michael Floyd is a good No.2, but rookie John Brown has been a big surprise as playmaking deep threat.

The Lions want to put pressure on Stanton and will do so with a mix of four-man rush and blitz packages. Ziggy Ansah is having a big second season at defensive end, and the Lions have gotten good play from cornerbacks Rashean Mathis and Darius Slay most of the year.

Edge: Cardinals

Special teams

The Lions' special-teams woes continued last week with a blocked field goal, giving them 11 missed field goals on the season. They haven't got much out of their return game, either, but they do have one of the most reliable punters and kickoff specialists in the NFL in Sam Martin.

Arizona has a much more reliable kicking game with rookie Chandler Catanzaro (17 of 18 on field goals). Return man Ted Ginn doesn't have a great average, but he's still explosive, as his 71-yard punt-return touchdown earlier this year proved. The Cardinals don't have a great punting game, so the Lions can make up ground there.

Edge: Cardinals

Overall

This is as big a game as the Lions have had in a long time. If they win today, they'll all of a sudden have the best record in the NFC and be in the driver's seat to have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. If they lose, they'll look more like a wild-card team.

The Cardinals are a good team with an aggressive, attacking defense and a few big playmakers on offense. They've beat a lot of solid teams this year, but they don't have their starting quarterback today.

The Lions would much rather face a Stanton-led Arizona team than one with Palmer at the helm, but that doesn't mean things will be easy. They need to protect Stafford against a good pass rush, not easy considering the state of the right side of their line, and they need to force turnovers on defense. Arizona is tied for the NFL lead with a plus-12 turnover margin. If the Lions can't win that battle today, their four-game winning streak will come to an end.

Pick: Cardinals 17, Lions 13

Read more staff predictions here.