Flyover state polling shows some rough signs for President Donald Trump in 2020. The fed predicts multiple Midwestern states will face an economic slowdown. And ethanol producers look across the border for help increasing demand.

Check-in

Blue wall: Kaiser Family Foundation and Cook Political Report are out today with some joint polling of Midwestern states, and the results don’t look great for Republican President Donald Trump. I’m going to ignore any of the head-to-head stuff for now and take a look at the approval numbers by state.

Wisconsin: Trump’s job approval is under water in Wisconsin, with 57% disapproving and 42% approving. But let’s look at the numbers a little closer. Voters’ top two issues were the economy and health care. Trump’s approval rating was a 50/50 split on the economy. However, that number plummets on health care, with 58% disapproving and only 40% approving.

Michigan: Trump’s job approval isn’t faring much better in Michigan, with 58% of respondents disapproving and only 41% approving. Voters’ top two issues are, once again, the economy and health care. Trump gets a net-positive approval rating on the economy, with 51% approving. On health care, he is once again unpopular, with 58% disapproving and 41% approving. More importantly, though, is who cares about which issues in Michigan. Twenty-five percent of independents said health care was their most important issue, while 20% said it was the economy.

Pennsylvania: If you haven’t caught on yet, there’s a trend. Trump’s job approval is in the gutter in Pennsylvania, with 61% disapproving and 39% approving. Unlike the other states, however, Trump has a net-negative job disapproval rating on the economy, with 52% disapproving and 48% approving. He’s even worse on health care, with 63% disapproving.

Medicare for stall: The good sign for Trump and the GOP in 2020 from the swing state polls, however, is swing voters aren’t crazy about a Medicare for all system that eliminates private insurance. Even more unpopular is no longer detaining people from crossing the U.S. border illegally. But issues that the GOP has tried to malign such as the Green New Deal or an assault weapons ban polled pretty well with the swing voters. Especially the Green New Deal, which clocked in above 65% in all three states.

So what? The KFF/Cook poll is just one poll, but it is in line with trends we’ve seen in other polls from these states. Another bad sign from the polling: independent voters think the economy is going to get worse. And they might be right, cleveland.com’s Andrew Tobias reports. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve predicted economic stalling or contraction over the next six months for Ohio (-0.04%), Wisconsin (-0.05%), Pennsylvania (-0.13%) and Michigan (-0.31%). Indiana forecasters are more bullish on their state’s economy in 2020, saying a recession likely isn’t coming, the Indianapolis Star’s Alexandria Burris reports (hard paywall).

Iowa-nt to hear: And what, exactly, are Iowa voters asking the throng of Democratic presidential candidates? The Des Moines Register’s Shelby Fleig and Anna Spoerre set out to document the topics and questions. Unsurprisingly, health care tops the list.

Si se puede: About 8% of the population in Flyover states is Latino, and the Democrats are taking note, especially in Iowa, the Des Moines Register’s Robin Opsahl, Stephen Gruber-Miller and Barbara Rodriguez report. And, no, those voters’ biggest issues aren’t limited to immigration, a folly many campaigns make.

It’s electric: General Motors agreed to sell its idled Lordstown, Ohio, production facility to Lordstown Motors Corp., an electric truck startup, per the Associated Press. The news must have come as a relief to Trump, who has been saddled with the factory’s closure following unrealized promises to bring jobs back to the area.

And Mexico will pay for it: Ethanol producers tired of waiting for the Trump administration to move on renewable fuels standards are looking south of the border for a place to increase demand, Politico’s Madi Bolaños reports. Biofuel producers are lobbying the Mexican government to allow E10 fuel in its three largest cities, which is currently prohibited.

Trigger warning: Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, called a special session for Thursday demanding lawmakers address gun violence, but Republicans in the state ignored him, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Molly Beck and Patrick Marley report. Evers wanted votes on background checks and red flag laws, but GOP Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald and Assembly Speaker Robin Vos said they will not even debate gun legislation.

Ethical conundrum: After a copious amount of arrests and investigations into corruption among Democratic government officials in Illinois, House Republicans introduced a slate of ethics reforms, the Chicago Tribune’s Dan Petrella reports. Whether longtime Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, a Democrat who basically runs the Capitol, will take up the legislation – which doubles as a not-so-thinly veiled shot at him – is another issue altogether. Especially since federal agents may be looking into Madigan as well.

Pay to play: A staffer for billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer’s Iowa operation has apparently been offering people checks in exchange for their support in the caucus, the Associated Press’ Alexandra Jaffe reports. Steyer’s campaign said Pat Murphy, a former Iowa House speaker, went rogue with his overtures, which aren’t technically illegal so long as they’re reported, but certainly don’t come off as especially respectable.

Arrivals/Departures

Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota was in Johnston, Iowa, on Thursday, per the campaign. Klobuchar will be in Ankeny, Fort Dodge, Pocahontas and Sioux Center, Iowa, on Friday.

Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado will be in Sioux City, Iowa, on Friday, per the campaign.

Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont will be in Council Bluffs, Iowa, on Friday, per the campaign. He will be joined by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.

Klobuchar will be in Sioux City, Le Mars and Emmetsburg, Iowa, on Saturday, per the campaign.

Bennet will be in Minden, Iowa, on Saturday, per the campaign.

Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez will be in Des Moines and Coralville, Iowa, on Saturday, per the campaign. Sanders will be in Orange City and Charles City, Iowa, on Sunday and Des Moines on Monday.

Sen. Kamala Harris of California will be in Mason City, Iowa on Saturday, per the campaign. Harris will be in Fort Dodge, Iowa, on Sunday.

Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey will be in Des Moines and West Des Moines, Iowa, on Saturday, per the campaign. Booker will be in Nevada and Ames, Iowa, on Sunday.

Billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer will be in Grinnell, Iowa, on Sunday, per the campaign.

Former Vice President Joe Biden will be in Oskaloosa and Grinnell, Iowa, on Monday, per the campaign.

This Is Your Captain Speaking

“You can only be a virgin once in politics. You get your free shot and then you’re burdened with it.”

-Joe DiSano, a Michigan Democratic political consultant, as quoted in the Detroit News on Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont’s presidential chances in 2020.

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Email Seth at SRichardson@cleveland.com. Follow him on Twitter at @SethARichardson.