Parkland, hurricanes, Trump shaping Florida Senate race between Rick Scott and Bill Nelson

WASHINGTON — GOP Gov. Rick Scott has yet to officially announce he'll run to unseat Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Orlando, but three extraordinary events during the past 18 months are already shaping the contours of a race that could determine control of the U.S. Senate next year.

The Parkland school shooting in February, back-to-back hurricanes Irma and Maria last year, and the election of Donald Trump as president in 2016 might be in the rear view mirror but their political reverberations are likely to be felt when Florida voters go to the polls or mail in their ballots this fall.

"Those three events were outside of their control, but they're definitely going to shape the election," said Ron Pierce, a Tampa-based Republican lobbyist who cautions "it's only March. We don't know what's going to happen between now and November."

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Political strategists and independent observers believe the trio of remarkable turns generally favor Nelson who already wields a historical edge: the party controlling the White House (this time, Republicans) usually has lost seats during mid-term elections.

Parkland has mobilized young voters nationwide and put the GOP-leaning gun lobby on the defensive. The federal response to the September storms has been uneven and continued problems in Puerto Rico have stoked further resentment among Hispanics against the Trump administration. And polls continue to show the president is generally viewed negatively by Florida voters.

But they also say Scott, who's expected to officially enter the race April 9, has deftly worked to blunt Nelson's advantage. They point to the governor's leading role in the passage in March of Florida's first gun-control law in more than two decades and his constant presence during Irma as the face of Florida's preparation and recovery efforts.

The election ultimately will pivot, they say, on whether Scott can escape Trump's unpopular shadow. Already Democratic victories in special elections in Florida (a GOP State Senate seat in Miami and a GOP State House seat in Sarasota) and around the nation portend grim news for Republican candidates in the 2018 cycle.

Democrats eagerly have spent months reminding voters of the close relationship between Scott and Trump and every indication suggests they will keep doing so until the ballots are counted.

"It's clear this is a heavily nationalized election and Scott has been tied so close to Trump from day one," said Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida in Tampa. "The question is what's the president's approval look like" on Election Day.

A look at the three events and their political fallout.

Valentine's Day massacre at Parkland

Even in a purple state like Florida, the National Rifle Association wields considerable power. But that's being tested by the political fallout from the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting on Feb. 14 that left 17 dead and 17 others wounded in Broward County.

Nelson moved quickly following the tragedy, reiterating his support for strong gun-control measures. He called for universal background checks for gun buyers and the revival of the federal ban on assault weapons. Neither passed the GOP-controlled Congress though he was part of a successful bipartisan effort to increase funding for safe schools and authorize federal research into gun violence.

For Scott, the pivot was fairly dramatic.

In 2014, the NRA described the governor as someone with "an unmatched record of support for the Second Amendment in Florida" who received an A-plus rating. He had signed a bill in 2011 that prevented doctors from asking patients about whether they owned guns and he was criticized for not doing much in the wake of the mass shooting at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando in 2016.

But following Parkland, Scott was instrumental in getting state lawmakers to pass some restrictions opposed by the NRA, including raising the minimum age to buy rifles from 18 to 21 and requiring a three-day waiting period when purchasing long guns. The NRA is suing to block the law.

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The Florida legislation didn't incorporate the assault weapons ban many survivors demanded, and it included a controversial proposal to let some schools arm staff members. But Scott won praise for bringing Parkland parents and state lawmakers together to pass a bill considered significant given the state's pro-gun climate.

The survivors "wanted to react to something, get it done during the 2018 legislative session," said Pierce, the GOP consultant. "And with his leadership, they were able to do that."

But Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at Central Florida University, said the issue might not be a huge political win for Scott in November noting a potential backlash from gun-rights voters who might decide to boycott the race. Some GOP lawmakers who voted for bill were sent jars of tar and feathers.

"He may attract some more swing voters because he actually did something," Jewett said. But "some Republicans may refuse to pull the lever for him if they are really single-issue voters."

For Nelson, it may come down to how much he can count on young people, a normally unreliable voting bloc, to remain motivated and show up at the polls in November.

"The average 20-year-old, are they going to get motivated?" Jewett said. "Maybe. But history says no."

Hurricanes Irma and Maria

Maria, the category 4 storm that slammed the U.S. in September, is still whipping up anger among Puerto Ricans and their allies.

As of early March, nearly 200,000 families and businesses in Puerto Rico — 16 percent of the U.S. territory — remain without power. The island faces a growing mental health crisis as people wrestle with their losses from the storm. And FEMA is answering tough questions about bungled contracts in its recovery effort.

The storm and its aftermath have also prompted a migration of tens of thousands of families from Puerto Rico to the U.S. mainland, many of them landing in Florida where relatives and friends populate the Interstate 4 corridor from Tampa to Daytona Beach.

It's hard to know how many of them will vote in the 2018 election or how they will vote. Analysts say that while Puerto Ricans tend to be Democratic voters, many who come directly from the island lean independent and may be more interested in venting during the 2020 election when Trump will be on the ballot.

In 2014, Florida’s Latino eligible voter population stood at 2.6 million with Puerto Ricans comprising 28 percent of that group, or about 730,000 voters. In a state where elections often come down to the wire, 100,000 votes out of roughly 6 million votes cast (turnout in the 2014, the last mid-term election) could make a difference.

Scott and Nelson have made multiple trips to Puerto Rico to show solidarity with storm-ravaged families. In addition, Scott declared a state of emergency in every Florida county Oct. 2 and directed state agencies to "do everything possible to effectively support the Puerto Rico response effort," including housing assistance, crisis counseling, unemployment assistance and legal advice.

That outreach followed Scott's performance guiding the state through Irma, where he won public plaudits for his relentless television presence urging Floridians to be prepared before the storm's arrival and his steady hand guiding the state's recovery after the storm left, analysts said.

Democrats have tried to blame Scott for the death of 12 nursing home patients after the facility lost power in Irma's wake.

More: Hurricane Irma: Six months later

But the charge has gained little traction and he responded by directing state officials to draw up rules requiring nursing homes and assisted living facilities to have emergency generators in case of a power outage. And while Nelson was asking the Trump administration to create a fuel supply reserve after Irma's destruction curtailed gas supplies in South Florida, Scott dispatched gas trucks to solve the crisis.

Polls of Florida voters immediately after Irma gave Scott a bump in his approval ratings.

"And that's consistent with what you see everywhere," MacManus said. "In crisis management, executives get the credit more than legislators."

Nelson may benefit too, and not just because he's been a dogged advocate for hurricane recovery funds, notably the hundreds of millions Congress eventually approved to rescue the Florida's storm-battered citrus industry.

For the incumbent senator, the size and intensity of the storm have afforded him a chance to spotlight the threat of climate change, a topic he’s increasingly emphasized as parts of the state face frequent flooding. Irma gives Nelson a powerful, close-to-home example to drive home his point against an opponent who’s downplayed the impact of global warming and the scientific case that human activity is the main culprit.

Donald Trump's election as president

The nation's 45th president has a special relationship with Florida. He often travels to Mar-á-Lago, his "Winter White House" in Palm Beach and owns other properties in the Sunshine State. And he counts the governor, similarly a self-styled entrepreneur who eschewed his party's establishment, as a political soulmate.

Scott's wagon, in effect, has been hitched to Trump, who has been urging the governor to run for months. The president's approval ratings and the level of enthusiasm among state voters for Trump will weigh on Scott — for better or worse.

The good news for the governor is that it wasn't that long ago that Trump won Florida, narrowly beating Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential race. The bad news? Polls indicate Trump's approval ratings are hovering in the low 40s with more Sunshine State voters giving him a thumbs down than a thumbs up though not as negative as bluer states.

Democratic strategist Steve Schale, who directed Barack Obama's victory in Florida during the 2008 presidential campaign, credits Scott for politically shrewd moves in recent months on guns and hurricanes. But Trump remains the dominant political factor heading into November, he said.

Schale said it's reminiscent of the 2010 gubernatorial race when Democrat Alex Sink, despite having higher favorable ratings, lost to Scott, an anti-establishment millionaire who rode tea party support to a narrow victory.

"They weren't going to vote for her because they thought she was a proxy for (Obama)," said Schale, who served as an adviser to the Sink campaign. "Same thing for Scott. He is permanently tied to Trump. He's an early endorser. He's hugged the guy every chance he's had. And it's just hard for me to imagine if it turns out to be a referendum on Trump, I don't see how voters go: 'OK, he handled this or that (other thing) well'."

More: Florida school shooting: President Trump meets victims, first responders

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Recent polls give Nelson a slight edge but the race is shaping up to be a tight—— contest typical of recent Florida races.

The lack of a major Republican primary challenger provides Scott some flexibility in choosing how closely he wants to align with Trump, said Kathryn DePalo, a political science professor at Florida International University.

He can tout the advantages of being close to the president, such as funding for the Herbert Hoover Dike or the administration's decision to exempt Florida from a plan to accelerate off-shore oil and gas drilling, without having to defend Trump in a primary.

"I don't think he's going to have to worry that much," DePalo said. Plus, "Scott 's been governor for nearly eight years so he has an entire record to run on — good or bad. He's not Trump light."

Tale of the Tape

Name: Bill Nelson

Party: Democrat

Age: 75

Current Office: U.S. senator

Political experience: U.S. Senate (2001-present); Florida treasurer and insurance commissioner (1995-2001); U.S. House of Representatives member (1979-91); Florida House member. (1973-79)

Education: Bachelor’s degree, Yale University; University of Virginia School of Law.

Name: Rick Scott

Party: Republican

Age: 65

Current office: Florida Gov.

Political experience: Governor since 2011

Education: Bachelor’s degree, University of Missouri-Kansas City; Southern Methodist University School of Law