The Rudd and Gillard governments did not project the image of a properly functioning team, a problem that was exacerbated by the challenges of minority government and shortcomings with policy implementation and communication of its message. This left the government looking like a pretty average show and meant this election was always going to be nigh on impossible to win. Looking back, it seems Kevin Rudd had a plan to get Labor to the start of the election campaign but did not have a strategy to get to election day. Indeed, Labor's best day seemed to be the day Rudd announced the election. This reflected the politically smart moves made by Rudd early in his return to the prime ministership: the change of position on asylum seekers, the bring-forward of a floating price on carbon, and the reforms to the ALP. Each of these areas had become political kryptonite for Labor, and Rudd managed to neutralise them ahead of the campaign. His support for same-sex marriage also energised party activists who are critical to the volunteer effort in an election. But a dip in the polls in the first week of the campaign was portrayed in the media as a faltering in Labor's re-election effort. In part this early result can be explained by Rudd coming off his honeymoon high in the polls. But the deeper and more problematic explanation was that Labor's campaign narrative was not gaining traction. The slogan ''A New Way'' was an attempt to draw a line under the negativity of recent times and position Rudd as the bringer of a new era of positive politics. As a slogan and narrative for a government seeking a third term it badly missed the mark. It would have worked for Kevin07 but not for Kevin13.

Tony Abbott's rejoinder that Rudd's ''new way'' could only be achieved by changing government was simply more persuasive, and his question, ''Do you want three more years like the last six?'' was the most cutting of the campaign. Governments running for a third term can rarely run on their record. Instead they need to hammer the risk of the political alternative and, importantly, present a strong, positive plan for the future. Labor's attack on Coalition cuts was a sensible strategy. But the positive part of the campaign narrative did not come together, and actually weakened the critique of the Abbott alternative. Labor's ''new way'' was all and only about Kevin - someone who was more popular than his predecessor but at the end of the day was just another politician. By contrast, the Coalition campaign was determined not to make Abbott the story. Think about the Liberal campaign launch: the defining memory was the alternative prime minster's daughters.

The Coalition campaign material emphasised the team of senior shadow ministers. Normally this is a sign a party has a problem with its leader. But in this campaign it hit the right note. It projected the image the Coalition wanted: it would be a government run by a team of grown-ups. The Coalition was able to make its leader fit its campaign frame, and Abbott did what was needed of him. By contrast, Labor's campaign frame was twisted to fit the leader. Critically, the ''new way'' did not involve a well-considered policy program or the sort of new ideas that are needed to sustain a campaign. The policies announced seemed like a collection of thought bubbles and greatest hits from a bygone era: the northern Australia policy, the relocation of a naval base from Sydney to somewhere up north, the fast train down the eastern seaboard, and even the federal takeover of TAFE. The Labor policies lacked a coherent vision to tie them together; they appeared like desperate election overreach. Worse still, they seriously weakened Labor's credentials as an incumbent that could deliver stable, effective government. This was a precondition to an effective attack on the Coalition based on trust and the risk of cuts. The bureaucratic rebuke of Labor's claim of a $10 billion hole in the Coalition's costings has been portrayed as the defining point in the campaign. But, for me, the ''birthday cake'' moment occurred when Rudd was interviewed by Barrie Cassidy on Insiders and was asked why he wanted to be elected for another three years. Rudd's answer was entirely retrospective. He could not articulate what he wanted to do in government for the next three years. Saturday's election result has proved that Labor still runs the best ground game in Australian politics, with its field campaign in target seats effectively containing Labor's loss. Its volunteer effort resulted in more than 1.2 million telephone calls to undecided voters, and ''online donations'' has now become the biggest donor to the ALP.