A runoff that was expected to be a slam dunk for Rahm Emanuel is turning out to be uncomfortably — even dangerously — close, leading the Chicago mayor to ready a scorched-earth offensive to save his job.

Recent polling shows the race between Emanuel and his unknown and underfunded rival, Jesus “Chuy” Garcia, has closed to within single digits. With local and national progressive groups lining up behind Garcia and promising to pour cash into the effort to deny Emanuel a second term, the mayor is suddenly scratching and clawing for his political existence.


“In Chicago, politics is a contact sport, and it looks like we’re going to have one of those full-contact battles,” said Bill Daley, a former White House chief of staff whose father and brother each served as Chicago mayor for more than 20 years.

Emanuel — once thought to be a shoo-in in the April 7 runoff — plans to launch an ad campaign in the coming days intended to discredit Garcia and cast him as a do-nothing pol who’s accomplished little during his two decades in public service, according to sources close to the mayor. The commercials will also present the mayor, who’s come under fire for closing underperforming schools in hardscrabble neighborhoods and for hiking taxes to close the city’s budget deficit, as someone who is willing to make tough decisions even if they aren’t popular.

The move comes a week after Emanuel finished atop a crowded field of mayoral candidates but failed to win a majority of the vote, which would have allowed him to circumvent the runoff against runner-up Garcia. So far, Emanuel’s advisers argue, the race has centered on questions about the mayor and his leadership. Now, with only two candidates battling it out, the advisers contend they can put the spotlight on Garcia.

Emanuel will be aided in the offensive by Chicago Forward, a super PAC that’s been set up to help the mayor win a second term and that is also poised to begin running television commercials. After last week’s election, Chicago financier Michael Sacks and his wife, Cari, provided the group with a $200,000 contribution to boost its efforts.

The mayor has already begun road-testing his message. Last week, his campaign hammered Garcia for opposing the placement of Barack Obama’s presidential library in Chicago, saying that it “speaks volumes about his lack of leadership.” On Monday, Garcia, who had expressed concern about putting the library on city park land, appeared to back down. “Whatever the final decision is,” Garcia said, “I will support.”

Emanuel declined to be interviewed for this story. But, in an email sent through a spokeswoman, he wrote that the election is now “a clear choice between two very different visions of Chicago’s future and how to get there. One path sidesteps our problems and delays the solutions as they get worse and worse, and the other is about confronting our challenges head on.”

Few could have predicted that Emanuel, 55, would be in such a precarious position against Garcia.

Drawing on a deep well of connections he developed during his two tours as a top White House aide and six years as a congressman, the mayor has raised more than $13 million — over 10 times more than Garcia. Emanuel has also had help from President Obama, who cut radio commercials and made a campaign swing through Chicago just a few days before the initial Feb. 24 election.

But Emanuel, whose rocky first term saw him preside over a wave of violent crime, a massive budget shortfall and a series of confrontations with teachers, finds himself in political jeopardy. A poll conducted by the independent firm Ogden & Fry, which was released Sunday, showed the mayor holding onto a narrow 43 percent to 39 percent lead.

Going on the attack isn’t without risk for Emanuel. He’s been forced to tone down his uncompromising style and fiery personal temperament. In its place is a chastened politician who has sought to present himself as a warmer figure: In one TV ad, the hard-charging politician once known as “Rahmbo” was transformed into a genial, sweater-wearing do-gooder. The scene features the mayor leaning across a table at a diner, conversing with a constituent and touching his hand.

Garcia, 58, said he’s been expecting the coming barrage, pointing to the new poll numbers as evidence that voters were growing weary of the combative Emanuel.

“We’re picking up a lot of steam,” he said in a phone interview Tuesday. “This is a pretty phenomenal development that it’s a dead heat at this moment.”

Garcia said he would have his own case to make against Emanuel, promising to cast the mayor as a friend of the rich but a stranger to the poor whose interests he’s repeatedly sided against.

Emanuel’s progressive foes, sensing an opportunity, are rushing into the contest. A pair of liberal groups, Democracy for America and MoveOn.org, are partnering on field efforts, and a third, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, is raising money for the cash-starved Garcia. Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, which has repeatedly clashed with Emanuel, said her group would also help out the challenger.

“He needs funding to make the case, and he needs boots on the ground to make the case,” she said.

The central battle, both campaigns believe, will be for African-American voters, who make up more than one-third of the city’s electorate and who have been deeply divided over Emanuel’s tenure. According to Aldertrack, a website that tracks Chicago politics, the mayor received 42 percent of the black vote in last week’s election, with Garcia winning 23 percent and the other three candidates picking up the remaining 35 percent.

Emanuel has made overtures to win the support of Willie Wilson, an African-American businessman who finished in third place. On Monday, he got a boost when a prominent African-American officeholder, Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle — who was once seen as a potential Emanuel challenger — announced that she wouldn’t be endorsing either candidate.

What’s still unclear is whether Obama will make another show of support for Emanuel, with whom he is close. A White House spokesman, Eric Schultz, said the president had no trip to Chicago “to announce at this time.”

Garcia, for his part, said he isn’t worried about the president getting involved again, pointing out that it wasn’t enough to help the mayor avoid a runoff.

“I think the president has shown loyalty,” he said. “It didn’t work.”

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