In the 1990s, when the province’s economy nose-dived and the number of passengers on the TTC dropped precipitously, then dropped some more, it was the incremental uptick in TTC ridership numbers that signaled a rebound.

The TTC as economic bellwether is one of the sacred doctrines of those who analyze economic trends in the region. Before the usual indicators start broadcasting the bad news of an economic downturn, the doctrine goes, TTC analysts can see it coming in the declining ridership growth the system’s monthly tracking spills out.

The early warning does nothing to avert the impending gloom; it exists to help the system survive the shock by allowing the TTC to take counter-measures as early as possible.

So, already, in a late-March report to the transit commission, TTC boss Andy Byford is tipping his hand, indicating that staff is retrenching. By his own projection, this year the TTC will collect “in the neighbourhood of $30 million” less than budgeted.

He had just reduced non-labour costs by $10 million, absorbed a further $5 million in cuts imposed by city hall, and massaged the 2016 budget by predicting lower costs for diesel fuel and employee benefits. He can’t return to that well to haul up “savings” to counter the revenue loss.

City council should be able to absorb the shortfall. The TTC has been on a good, long run of contributing annual surpluses to the city pot. It may be transit’s turn to come begging.

TTC ridership results are continually assessed from two perspectives — how ridership affects the budget, and the trend to more or fewer riders. In both cases, year-to-date results for 2016 are below expectations. Latest projections put ridership this year at 540 million, short of the 545 million estimated in the budget.

In the meantime, Byford is recommending that TTC hold off on new service enhancements on the heels of the $95-million boost Mayor John Tory approved. For example, the increased express service and reinstallation of all-night service on key routes should stay, Byford said.

There’s a more important issue, bigger than how ridership will affect the 2016 budget. Are we witnessing a trend, or is this a blip?

National trends show a similar occurrence with transit systems in Montreal, Winnipeg and out west. So Byford and others say, “something has changed, and we want to get to the bottom of what that is.” Staff are now analyzing the issue and will report to the July transit commission meeting

“We don’t want a knee-jerk reaction. My advice will be to hold off on any additional service. If this becomes a trend we don’t want to end up with surfeit of service. But you have to give new service time to take hold,” he said.

Sales of Metropasses are down. Ridership is still rising, but not to the levels projected. A slowing economy is often fingered in such cases, but others point to several other factors:

Numerous delays on the system that create frustration for commuters. (Still, the CEO’s report shows delays are down — which is good.)

Overcrowding on many surface routes — especially downtown — has commuters looking to other options. Think bike. Think Uber.

All-door boarding on some routes must have an impact. Readers email to say fare cheats are making a mockery of the honour system that’s in place. But, how big a problem is this?

And, of course, free transit for kids 12 and younger has a financial impact.

In the 1990s, the TTC’s answer to the tanking economy was to raise fares and cut service. The TTC went into a deep dive. A ridership growth strategy at the turn of the millennium is often credited with the successful rebound — the one that brought ridership levels to 540 million a year.

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Politicians and planners point to transit as a key tool in the fight against climate change. Billions of dollars are being earmarked for public transit in this province, with Toronto at the front of the line. Progressive policies like free transit for kids need time to take root and develop a lifetime of transit-riding habits.

As Toronto enters a golden age of transit building, any sustained ridership loss now would put a crimp into the bullish plans.