There are but two guarantees in this year’s Oscar race for best director: Bradley Cooper and Alfonso Cuarón will be nominated for “A Star Is Born” and “Roma,” respectively.

Who else makes the final five is anybody’s guess.

Eleven other directors — including some Oscar-nominated veterans and would-be first-timers — all have a legitimate path to those remaining spots. But who will come out ahead when the nominations are unveiled on Jan. 22? Below, in alphabetical order, your Carpetbagger weighs their odds.

Bo Burnham, ‘Eighth Grade’

In his favor: Burnham’s junior-high dramedy has netted several breakthrough awards from critics. Could he follow in the path of other first-time filmmakers like Spike Jonze (“Being John Malkovich”) and Benh Zeitlin (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”) and crash the best-director category?

Working against him: This year’s race may be too stacked with heavyweight names for Burnham to slip through.