Following a 67-59 victory in Evanston, the Hoosiers will be awarded only two days of rest before facing Penn State in what will already be the teams’ second meeting of the season.

Indiana and Christian Watford will look to replicate their January 7th performance when the Hoosiers cruised to a 74-51 win at the Bryce Jordan Center. Watford led all scorers and rebounders with 16 points and 8 boards on 5-8 shooting (3 for 5 from beyond the arc) in just 27 minutes of action.

The Hoosiers will be looking to escape a bout of relatively mediocre play. They haven’t had a dominating performance since that early January game at Penn State.

After their first meeting against the Nittany Lions, Indiana has been outscored in the second half of play by an average of 9.3 points. The Hoosiers largely haven’t suffered for it because of the quality of their opponents as well as their strong first half execution (the Hoosiers have been outscoring their opponents by an average of 12.6PPG in the first half of their past three games).

This is the perfect opportunity for them to regroup after two relatively lackluster offensive performances against Wisconsin and Northwestern, and I fully expect the Hoosiers to show a polished offense (and defense!) throughout Wednesday’s game.

In this preview, I’m going to revisit Indiana’s offensive and defensive efficiency, rather than Dean Oliver’s ‘Four Factors for Basketball Success’ (remember, those are: eFG%, TO%, OR%, and Free Throw Rate) mostly because Indiana comes out ahead against Penn State in every category. We’ll look at some offensive and defensive efficiency numbers to really see if the Hoosiers are indeed suffering from a (hopefully) brief mid-season slump.

I prefer to calculate Points per Possession, and Points Allowed per Possession when calculating offensive and defensive efficiency, as I feel like they’re one of the best metrics for doing so:

PPP = Total Points/Total Possessions

PPAP = Total Points Allowed/Total Possessions

(Note: Total Possessions can be calculated as follows: FGA-OR+TO+(0.475*FTA))

Offensive and Defensive Efficiency: vs WISCONSIN

PTS PER POSSESSION PTS ALLOWED PER POSS INDIANA .970 1.06 WISCONSIN 1.07 .990

Offensive and Defensive Efficiency: vs NORTHWESTERN

PTS PER POSSESSION PTS ALLOWED PER POSS INDIANA 1.27 1.12 NORTHWESTERN 1.01 1.14

Offensive and Defensive Efficiency: SEASON AVERAGES

PTS PER POSSESSION PTS ALLOWED PER POSS INDIANA (home) 1.25 .820 INDIANA (away) 1.01 .960

As expected, Indiana struggled both offensively against Wisconsin (-.28 points per possession below their home average), and on the defensive end as well (-.24 points per possession below their home average).

Against Northwestern, however, Indiana’s offense was clicking (averaging 1.27 PPP), even exceeding their per possession average at Assembly Hall. Again, their troubles came on the defensive end, and their defensive efficiency was even worse than what it was against the Badgers (1.12 PAPP vs. 1.06 PAPP).

Statistically, we can see that Indiana’s mini-slump can largely be attributed to their defensive struggles. So if the Hoosiers are to turn things around, Penn State is the ideal opponent to do so against.

Look for Indiana’s points allowed to be closer to their season averages — if we see an average points allowed of 1.0 or less, the Hoosiers will glide to their fifth conference win.

Prediction: Indiana 85, Penn State 65