Within hours of the results of the Tory no confidence vote being announced, the conspiracy theories started. It had been Theresa May herself who had triggered the ballot by persuading 12 of her allies to submit letters to the 1922 Committee in an effort to wrong-foot the eurosceptic Conservative MPs of the European Research Group (ERG) before they had had a proper chance to mobilise their support. What's more, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady, had been in on the plot by declaring the no confidence vote was going to be held on the very day the 48 letter threshold had been reached, rather than by giving all MPs a few days time to consider their positions.

In keeping with the general feeling of despair and futility in Westminster at the moment, the no confidence vote itself turned out to be even less convincing than it appeared. Not only did 117 of 317 MPs vote against the prime minister – a huge number considering there are more than 100 MPs on the government payroll as ministers and therefore rather obliged to support May – no one could accurately remember what she had said in her appeal to the 1922 Committee.

Some MPs thought she had said she wouldn't lead the party into another general election; others that she had only promised not to lead the party into an election in 2022. Leaving 2019, 2020 and 2021 up for grabs. In other words, it had been a typical May performance of keeping everyone guessing. Not even she had known what she had really meant. She had merely done enough to remain in office for another day.

It had been a typical May performance of keeping everyone guessing. Not even she had known what she had really meant

The reality of the vote soon became clear. Though the prime minister might have neutralised the threat of the ERG, who had really wanted to force a no confidence vote either when the government had lost the vote on its Brexit Withdrawal Agreement or after the EU had refused to offer further concessions, for 12 months, the maths had not changed. There were still well over 100 Tory MPs who would vote against the government when the Brexit bill is finally put to the house. May's deal was still a non-starter.

Which leaves us rather back where we started. Or possibly in an even worse position. The day after the no confidence vote, May went back to the EU – not expecting to renegotiate the legal text of the Withdrawal Bill, but at least hoping to get a few lukewarm words of reassurance that she could present as victory – and came back with even less than expected.

The prime minister had retained her uncanny knack of snatching an even greater defeat from the jaws of defeat. She returned from Brussels humiliated and still slightly delusional. The word from Downing Street was that she was still hoping to negotiate concessions, that the EU had already said were non-negotiable, before the Commons voted on the Brexit deal in January. She even appeared blissfully unaware that there wasn't going to be another EU summit in which to renegotiate the impossible before the Commons vote.

Things the prime minister say definitely won't be happening have an uncanny knack of coming to pass

So at a time of the greatest political, constitutional and economic crisis since the Second World War, the UK finds itself with a government that cannot govern. In a statement to the Commons this afternoon, May will make just two desperate appeals. Vote for my deal, which MPs on every side of the house dislike because she couldn't come up with a better one. And to plead with MPs to drop the idea of a second referendum as it would be a betrayal of the will of the people.

Campaigners for a second referendum are delighted. Just six months ago, nobody thought another vote was a serious possibility. Now even members of the cabinet are taking it seriously as the only way to break the impasse and with May now ruling it out, she has made it an almost inevitability. Remember her saying back in early 2017 that there wouldn't be general election because it wouldn't be in the national interest? Remember her only ten days ago insisting she had no intention of pulling the Brexit vote? Things the prime minister say definitely won't be happening have an uncanny knack of coming to pass.

If it wasn't so serious, it would almost be comical. For much of the last six months it's been as if we have been living through an extended real-time episode of The Thick Of It. Staggering levels of government incompetence and a Commons that can only agree on the fact it agrees on nothing. But with just over 100 days until the UK is supposed to be leaving the EU on March 29th next year, the joke is beginning to wear thin.

It's not too late to either revoke or extend Article 50 and prevent the country from heading into chaos

Someone in Westminster has to start showing some leadership. Not by running down the clock and trying to bulldoze a rubbish bad deal through parliament on the grounds that it's marginally less damaging to the country than all the other options, but by standing up for what they believe is in the national interest. And if it takes more time, then so be it. It's not too late to either revoke or extend Article 50 and prevent the country from heading into chaos.

But for that to happen, we don't just need competence from the government. We also need an opposition that can oppose. The Labour party's mantra for much of the last year has been to do and say next to nothing other than criticise the Tories for being a bit rubbish. There may be some political advantage in not interrupting your opponent when it is making mistakes, but there comes a time when an opposition needs to stand up and be counted. That time has come.

No one is pretending it's easy for Labour. Its current position of saying it would negotiate a better Brexit deal while sticking to all the government's red lines may be logically absurd, but it has the advantage of not alienating any of its supporters, some of whom are committed Brexiteers. But now it needs to jump off the fence. Either say it wants to remain in the customs union and the single market and accept the obligations of freedoms of movement and a contribution to the EU budget or go the full hog and come out in favour of a second referendum. Just give some clarity and a position the country can get behind.

Sure it's a risk, but we need leadership. That's what opposition parties with genuine aspirations to be in government provide. Do something. Anything. Even if it's only to propose having a referendum on whether to have a second referendum. It couldn't be any worse that what we have now.

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