If the Pallister government does shut down one or more hospital emergency rooms in Winnipeg — a decision that could come as early as this week — it will likely be Concordia Hospital.

There are a few reasons for that, not the least of which is the struggle Concordia has had with some of the longest ER wait times in Canada, according to the Canadian Institute of Health Information.

Premier Brian Pallister let slip Monday to reporters that some type of major health reorganization would be announced this week. Government staffers later clarified that the Winnipeg Regional Health Authority, along with government (they’re really both the same thing) plan to announce major changes to hospital operations and other health care services in Winnipeg.

And that may include the closure of one or more hospital ERs in the city, something that was recommended by Dr. David Peachey in a report commissioned by the former NDP government and released in February.

Peachy recommended closing three hospital ERs in the city and turning them in to urgent care centres for minor ailments, much like what exists at Misericordia Health Centre. Peachey recommended that ERs at Health Sciences Centre, St. Boniface General Hospital and one community hospital (there are four in Winnipeg) remain open.

It’s unlikely, though, that the Pallister government would close three ERs in the city, no matter what the evidence says. That’s because politics often play as much of a role in Canada’s government-monopoly health care system as evidence-based decision making does, sometimes more.

Closing the ER at Grace General Hospital on the west side of the city and/or Victoria General Hospital on the south side of Winnipeg would be political suicide for government. There are no other hospitals in the vicinity of either of them. And the two facilities also happen to be located in Tory friendly-areas, both in and adjacent to Conservative ridings that government would like to hang on to.

Shutting down ERs at either of the two teaching hospitals, St. Boniface and HSC, is definitely not an option. Which leaves Concordia and Seven Oaks General Hospital, both of which are located not far from each other in the north and north-east section of the city.

And since Seven Oaks is the larger, more multi-functional facility, that leaves Concordia as the most vulnerable to close its ER.

The “Conc” not only has among the longest ER wait times in Canada, it’s also one of the least busy ERs in the city. It had 29,608 ER patients in 2015-16, a drop of nearly 7% from 2013-14. Only Grace had fewer ER visits in 2015-16 at 27,237. Concordia also has the fewest hospital beds of any Winnipeg hospital — 185 in 2015-16. And the hospital has among the highest bed occupancy rates — one of the key drivers behind long ER wait times — in the city at just over 94%.

Also, Concordia is in an NDP riding. Government would never admit it, but politics do play a role in these decisions.

Who would complain the most about closing down an ER in the Concordia riding, which has been held by the NDP — including former premier Gary Doer — for decades? The NDP MLA for Concordia Matt Wiebe and the people in that riding, the majority of whom don’t vote Tory anyway.

It would still be a tough sell for nearby Tory MLAs in Radisson, Rossmere and River East. But it would be the lesser of four evils for the Tories.

The onus would still be on the WRHA and the Pallister government to provide evidence to support the notion that closing one or more ERs could reduce overall wait times in the city. Pallister strongly hinted last week that ERs could be on the chopping block as part of his government’s health care re-organization. But he’ll have to convince Winnipeggers with evidence why his government believes it’s a good idea.

And if he does, Concordia is probably the one to go.