The Cleveland Browns have an interesting off-season ahead of them. We expect Browns rumor after Browns rumor from now until the start of Training Camp. We expect rumors about them drafting certain players, trading for certain players, trying to sign certain players and problems with some of their current players. While this is true with all NFL teams, we expect a high dose of it for the Browns.

One Browns rumor regarding the NFL Draft is already here:

I’m told Browns scouting came away impressed with Baylor QB Bryce Petty after Sr Bowl interview — Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) January 21, 2015

Petty is an interesting quarterback as he led a potent Baylor Bears offense for the last couple of years. He, like Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota and others, will have to adapt from their college style of play to make it in the NFL. Petty is seen as the elusive “developmental quarterback.” In his write-up on ESPN, Fowler talked about some of the issues that Petty faces:

Petty is adjusting from Baylor’s no-huddle offense to an NFL system, which could take time. Petty looked rusty in the first session Tuesday, but threw with more confidence Wednesday. Petty admits he’s had to think through plays the first two days at the Senior Bowl, which is less ideal than mastering the concepts and reacting, but he’s getting more comfortable every day.

Not exactly ideal for the Browns, but again as a developmental quarterback his size and ability to move could be intriguing. If only it wasn’t for his low completion percentage, a big concern coming from the system he came from, he could be a much higher selection. Dan Kadar, from SB Nation, also made note of Petty in his Senior Bowl Day 2 Report:

You can tell watching Petty he’s not comfortable dropping back while going through his progressions and reading the defense.

Not surprising given his requirements at Baylor but a bit concerning for the Browns who went through similar struggles with Johnny Manziel last year. While we expect the Browns to bring in a veteran QB to compete, or out right start, next year, do they have time to help two QBs learn progressions and reading defenses? But again Petty is a developmental type QB, so our expectations should not be too high right now.

But is the idea of a developmental QB real or a myth? Many, including this writer, think about the Browns drafting a quarterback who they can develop over the next couple years and could take over if Manziel fails (as many expect him to). The thinking is that the team can spend the higher picks on other players while still finding their QB of the future. A win-win situation. However some research by Football Savages writer Shane Richardson, titled “NFL General Managers’ Misguided Obsession with Drafting Quarterbacks,” might prove that the idea of a “developmental QB” is indeed a myth. The whole piece is great, and Shane is going to provide us with the raw data later today, but this paragraph says a ton and should be a catalyst for you to check out the rest of the piece:

Since 2004, there were 141 quarterbacks selected: 59 of those were selected in rounds 1-3 and 82 were selected in rounds 4-7. For those selected early, the average number of starts is 41.5 per quarterback and have won 50.8% of their starts (among quarterbacks with at least one start). The average number of starts for quarterbacks selected beyond round 3 is 5.3 and they have an average winning percentage of 28.9%. Of the 82 late round quarterback selections, only five have started more than 20 games: Ryan Fitzpatrick (33-55), Kyle Orton (42-40), Matt Cassel (33-38), Derek Anderson (20-25), and Bruce Gradkowski (6-14). The first four in that list were all drafted in what has turned out to be the banner year for late round quarterbacks: 2005 and Orton is the only one with a winning record. If you remove them from the equation, the cumulative record for late round quarterbacks is 32-124 among the ones that started at least one game. For those of you who are way ahead of me, let me connect the dots for everyone: 56 of 82 quarterbacks drafted in rounds 4-7 since 2004 have never started an NFL game! Ever! Not one single NFL game.

What is even more interesting is that of the QBs drafted in rounds 1 thru 3 the Browns find a unique spot on that list:

QBs drafted since 2004 w/ lowest reg season win % (min 20 starts): #Jaguars Gabbert (.185), #Browns Quinn (.200), #Browns Weeden (.238) — Shane Richardson (@ShaneNFL) January 17, 2015

So the Browns QBs even bring down the stats about QBs drafted in the first 3 rounds.

So what does all of this tell us about Bryce Petty and the Browns rumor that they were impressed by him? Statistically a ton. Petty has a ton of development to do coming out of the system he was in, hasn’t looked great during his time at the Senior Bowl already and is far more likely to not ever start a game in the NFL than to even start one, much less become a competent starting NFL QB, if he is drafted after the 3rd round.

Based on Shane’s data, and all of our personal experience with Browns QBs, we can hope that the Browns finally get one right. The good news out of the Fowler report is that the Browns seemed impressed by Petty from their interview with him, not his on the field work. Struggling with reads and progressions, while having a poor completion percentage in college, in a conference known to be defensively weak, and likely drafted in the 4th round or lower, all are signs that Bryce Petty will flop in the NFL.

Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, Tom Brady and Kyle Orton are all proof that starting level QBs, yes Orton barely belongs in the category, can be found after the 3rd round. There are also likely people in your career field that come out of nowhere and are now the CEO of the company. Just because it CAN happen doesn’t mean it is likely. With Bryce Petty is seems, much like in Hunger Games, the odds are not in his favor.

What do you think of this Browns rumor and the data on developmental QBs?