The gory terrorist attack in the small town of Dinanagar in India’s Gurdaspur district has raised some odd questions. The timing of the episode and the narrative churned up by Indian media that followed the so-called terrorist attack have some glaring loopholes. But before that, something on the geostrategic environment of 2015.

Five major drivers in south and west Asia are shaping the geostrategic environment and paving way for epoch-making changes.

One, Pakistan seems to be coming out of a hybrid war with flying colours and its military is in the process of mopping up terrorist networks and their surrogates. The CPEC is a major economic breakthrough, which would put Pakistan on the centre-stage of the region and make it a conduit of energy and economic development. Our political scene also seems to be gaining stability after the Judicial Commission report.

Two, the referendum on Khalistan, known as Referendum 2020 in the Sikh diaspora residing in Europe and North America is gaining momentum with social media platforms abuzz with netizens’ chatter. The Sikh youth in India and their contemporaries in the Sikh diaspora appear to be gearing up for a second uprising on Khalistan; this time net-bites have replaced the bullets of Jarnail Singh Bhindarwale.

Three, the Kashmiri freedom movement in Indian Held Kashmir is taking a new shape and form. Politics has now replaced militancy and Pakistani flags are seen regularly fluttering in the Kashmir Valley.

Four, the Modi Mantra is gradually losing its lustre and the RSS agenda of Saffronisation of India seems to be backfiring with growing criticism at home and abroad.

Five, Afghanistan and Pakistan have started understanding each other and there is a growing sense of cooperation across the Durand Line, especially on the issue of bringing stability in the region.

Despite the recent thawing of relations between India and Pakistan after the Ufa summit, India’s aggressive posturing across the Line

of Control and Working Boundary has continued unabated. The Pakistan Army recently shot down an Indian heli-drone. An ISPR release issued recently states: ‘the movement of Indian troops indicate aggressive intentions of the country. The Pakistan Army has already lodged a protest with United Nations (UN) observers over recent ceasefire violations by Indian troops. It added that the Indian army had targeted civilian areas with heavy machine guns and mortar shells. Four Pakistani civilians were martyred and five injured to unprovoked Indian firing on the Working Boundary and Line of Control earlier this month.’

Sikh Federation UK has been very active in voicing the rights of the Sikh diaspora and of Sikhs in India. Referendum 2020 is gaining momentum within the Sikh diaspora, and the US-based human rights group ‘Sikhs For Justice’ (SFJ) Facebook page was recently blocked in India. In retaliation SFJ has given a call to the Sikh diaspora in North America to boycott Air India. The national airline of India operates several flights every day to various destinations in North America.

SFJ has given a call to hold a referendum in the year 2020 on the question of Sikh sovereignty. Referendum 2020 will be held in the state of Punjab and among Sikh diaspora living in America, Canada, United Kingdom, European Union, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Middle East.

Why is Dinanagar a false flag operation directed by RAW? Let’s analyse the whole episode. The Working Boundary is probably the most heavily guarded zone in the world. On the Indian side it is looked after by dozens of BSF battalions and three division of infantry, the layered defence of IHK and Indian Punjab is laced with triple fence system, manmade anti-tank ditches and surveillance cameras. Indian drones and the IAF conduct 24-hour surveillance of the area and it may not be an exaggeration to state that even an ant would think twice before crossing this deadly zone.

It is very strange of the Indian media and some of India’s ministers to instantly blame Pakistan without solid evidence. Although the reported incident started making headlines in the early hours of July 27, the Indian media had already established the alleged link of the terrorists with Pakistani groups and the ISI by mid-day. One report suggested that the militants took pains to hide their identity (of any link with Pakistan) by removing all tags from their clothes and undergarments. In the same breath the report mentions that these militants were raising slogans of Allah-o-Akbar at top of their voices while spraying bullets on Indian security forces…whose line is it anyway?

The militants allegedly hijacked an 800 CC Maruti car to reach a police station after creating mayhem in the town of Dinanagar – absurd, if they were on a high-profile mission why would they announce their arrival to the whole town before reaching their target? Yes the media needed some witnesses to tell the world that people saw these jokers rushing to the target sight. And last but not the least, the entire operation was finally conducted by Punjab police SWAT teams instead of the thousands of military and special units that had arrived at the scene. If the operation took more than 11 hours to mop up, what was the Indian army doing at the scene?

In my humble opinion, Dinanagar may be a false flag operation (though poorly directed) to kill three birds with one sling shot; check Pakistan’s aggressive stance on RAW in Balochistan (to be taken to the UNSC), create a wedge between Sikhs and Pakistan and dent any efforts for the upcoming referendum on Khalistan in 2020. The Sikh diaspora is very active. However, Pakistan (as usual) is oblivious to this strategic shift.

Unfortunately Pakistan is always blamed for the shenanigans of the Indian security establishment – as the Indian media goes for overkill. Pakistan has never taken these incidents seriously and we need to develop a mechanism to tell the whole world that false flag operations badly affect the security environment of the entire region.

The writer is a defence analyst based at Lahore.

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