Race Analysis

10/26/10 -- It looks like "aqua Buddha" might have backfired, much like Elizabeth Dole's "Godless" ad in 2008 and George Allen's comments on Jim Webb's racy scenes in his books in 2006. Of course in both cases the candidates saw the writing on the wall and attempted a Hail Mary; it may be the same story here.

10/20/10 -- The polls show a definite tightening here. It is unclear whether Conway's "Aqua Buddha" ad is a bridge too far, or whether it will convince Kentuckians that Paul is a bridge too far. We'll see on election night. It's worth noting that most of this tightening comes from Paul's numbers falling, rather than Conway's numbers improving.

9/30/10 -- Some recent polls have shown a closer race here, including a SurveyUSA poll that shows Paul with just a two-point lead. By contrast, the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll shows an 11-point Paul lead. What all the polls agree on is that there are still enough undecideds out there for Conway to pull off the win. If the remainder of the undecideds are people who have doubts about Paul, the upset isn't out of the question.

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Kentucky politics can largely be explained by the state’s congressional districts. The 1st and 2nd Districts are (roughly) the Jackson Purchase and Pennyrile areas of the state, which vote like the Deep South. The 3rd and 6th Districts represent urban Louisville and greater Lexington, while the 4th District is the Republican Cincinnati and Louisville suburbs. The 5th District is an amalgam of two older districts, one of which was old mountain Republican territory, and one of which was heavily unionized and Democratic coal mining country. The name of the game for Republicans is to run well in the 4th and 5th and hold their ground in the 1st and 2nd, while Democrats try to add to their bases in Louisville, Lexington, and the coal mining areas of the 5th.

After witnessing Senator Jim Bunning’s near-defeat at the hands of then-obscure state Senator Dan Mongiardo in 2004 and Governor Ernie Fletcher’s disastrous re-election campaign in 2007, Republicans succeeded in convincing Bunning not to seek re-election. Both sides had competitive primaries. On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor Mongiardo lost to Attorney General Jack Conway. On the Republican side, Secretary of State Trey Grayson was badly beaten by libertarian upstart Rand Paul.

Paul has made a series of missteps, including an ambiguous commitment to the Civil Rights Act of 1964. But Conway had to tack leftward to win his primary, and supported the Democrats’ health care bill and has supported cap-and-trade legislation in the past – dangerous positions in a state where the President sports a 40 percent approval rating. This could be a situation where the state’s typical alignment is reversed, and Paul runs weaker in the suburban 4th district, while Conway runs behind in the coal regions of the state and in the Pennyrile.