A few minutes before midnight on Saturday night, Russia was penalty kicks away from a semi-final match with England. The tie had explosive potential. England would face the host nation of a tournament boycotted by its own government. Russia would face the declared enemy; the focus of four months of relentless propaganda on state TV. It would have been an existential showdown.

Two missed penalties later, Wednesday’s semi-final tie was turned on its head. Russians had a new dilemma: Croatia or England?

The choice is not as straightforward as it might seem. Yes, Britain is not flavour of the month. But Russia’s relations with their fellow Slavs are far from simple.

Their complexity was underlined with a leaked video showing Croatian defender Domagoj Vida performing a populist, pro-Ukrainian greeting. That video earned him a FIFA censure.

“The Vida incident has changed things for many Russians,” says Anton Prokudin, 21, a customer at the hipster Pivbar bar on the Garden Ring Road in central Moscow. “He should have kept quiet.”

The student says some of his friends have switched from supporting Croatia. He has decided to stick to Modric and Co – a “footballing” decision. The Croats are “better, more determined” than the English; they performed wonders against Argentina.

Anton Prokudin, on the right, with friends (Oliver Carroll/The Independent)

Others in the bar said they would support England. Tensions were for politicians and the media, said Sergei Petrov, 32. He was a fan of all things English – the music, the football, the humour. “Sport should be outside of politics,” agrees his wife, Maria Petrova, 28.

Kruzhka, another bar the other side of town, is a different type of establishment. There are few hipsters here. The basement bar is a hangout for those whose main concern is price. 250 rubles [£3] and 150 grams of vodka is yours. The interior is faded orange, and the scent – middle-age.

England's route to the World Cup semi-finals Show all 6 1 /6 England's route to the World Cup semi-finals England's route to the World Cup semi-finals England's route to the World Cup semi-finals Here we take a look at the route that has taken Gareth Southgate's side to the last four. Getty Images England's route to the World Cup semi-finals Tunisia 1 England 2 - Group G, Volgograd, June 18 A Harry Kane double got England off to a winning start, although they needed an injury-time winner from the Tottenham front man. A strong start from England was rewarded by Kane's close-range finish from a corner after only 11 minutes, but Kyle Walker's handball gifted Ferjani Sassi the chance to equalise from the spot before half-time. England probed without success for the second 45 minutes until, a minute into added-time, Kane's far post header following another corner sealed victory. Getty Images England's route to the World Cup semi-finals England 6 Panama 1 - Group G, Nizhny Novgorod, June 24 Southgate's side turned on the style against the ill-disciplined minnows, who were 5-0 down by half-time. Panama could not live with England's strength at set-pieces, which led to John Stones heading the opener and Kane adding number two with a penalty. Jesse Lingard curled in the best of the bunch for number three before another Stones header and another Kane penalty put England in dreamland. Kane completed his hat-trick with a deflection he knew nothing about before Felipe Baloy's late consolation. Getty Images England's route to the World Cup semi-finals England 0 Belgium 1 - Group G, Kaliningrad, June 28 Both sides fielded second-string sides, having already qualified for the knockout stages and in the knowledge that finishing second in the group was likely to offer a more favourable route to the final. Adnan Januzaj's brilliant solo goal won the match for Belgium. Getty Images England's route to the World Cup semi-finals Colombia 1 England 1 (England won 4-3 on penalties) - Last 16, Moscow, July 3 England won a World Cup penalty shootout for the first time as Jordan Pickford's save from Carlos Bacca and Eric Dier's cool spot-kick sealed a dramatic victory. Colombia, without star man James Rodriguez through injury, adopted rough-house tactics but Southgate's side kept their cool and went ahead through a second-half Kane penalty. They then recovered from conceding a last-gasp equaliser to Yerry Mina, and from Jordan Henderson missing first in the shootout, to win their first knockout game at a major tournament in 12 years. FIFA via Getty Images England's route to the World Cup semi-finals Sweden 0 England 2 - Quarter-finals, Samara, July 7 Southgate's side turned in their best performance of the tournament to see off a team who had kept three clean sheets in four games and contributed to Germany's early elimination. Harry Maguire's thumping first-half header got England up and running, with Dele Alli nodding home the second, but Pickford was again the star of the show with a couple of quite brilliant saves. Getty

But not everyone here is keen to speak. A man in a tight black and brown laminated shirt answers only one question – “Croatia” – before returning to drink vodka with his friend.

Others refused to give their full names.

“The English are all clowns,” says “Alexander”, 63, a former submariner, who is drinking vodka and beer chasers with fellow military man Vladimir Afanasiev, 66.

“And don’t get me going on Boris Johnson,” he says. “You won’t like it.”

His friend Mr Afanasiev said England had never done Russia any favours: “You couldn’t call England a prostitute, that would be impolite. But they do go with whoever they want.”

Russian policemen stand guard near England flags (Reuters)

Both men would be supporting Croatia at Luzhniki stadium on Wednesday, they said. There was no contest.

The Croats “may have been Nazis in the Second World War”, says Alexander, but they will always be “closer to the Russian spirit” than the English.

From the moment Russia lost on penalties, nationalistic commentators have zoomed in on the Croatian Second World War stance. Some have even drawn a direct line from that to Vida’s pro-Ukrainian video.

But it is another military campaign – the Yugoslavian wars of the 1990s – that will likely have a larger effect on Russian allegiances on Wednesday.

Russia’s ultras fostered close links with their Serbian counterparts during those years – and a corresponding animosity towards the Croats. T-shirts proclaiming “Kosovo je Srbija” are popular among the Russian ultras crowd. The Serbian question is one of few that unites the movement.

“Eighty eight per cent of Russians will be for England,” declares “Mikhail”, a barman at a central Moscow bar associated with footballs’ ultras. “No one is bothered about Skripal, Johnson or politics. The thing that really matters are the links we have with our Serbian friends.”

He reveals a tattoo of Dinamo Moscow: “There’s room for only one Dinamo here. No Zagreb. Never.”

When Nato embarked on the 1998-9 Kosovo campaign, it was football fan groups who took the lead in organising aggressive pickets of Western embassies. The American embassy came under particular attack, pelted by paint and all kinds of projectiles over several days.

Russian fans look on prior the quarter-final match between Russia and Croatia (AP)

Fan leader Alexander Shprygin, considered close to Russian ultras, was one one of the main organisers. He recalls how football fans would ring one another throughout the night to get the numbers together. They then joined forces with nationalist politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky.

“It was a small, closed world, but somehow, there were enough of us to cause trouble,” he tells The Independent. “We went to every embassy: the French, the British, the Germans, and to the Americans.”

Come Wednesday, England may well find themselves the beneficiaries of additional support from the most unusual of places.