muffley Profile Blog Joined May 2010 United States 280 Posts Last Edited: 2011-12-26 21:36:16 #1



edit: Data collected with my own



Keep in mind, this only tracks ladder games, custom games are not looked at in any way. All data was updated at least 12 hours prior to the end of each season, numbers should be considered low by 0-1% based on trends of new players and games per day.



us is North America and Latin America, eu is Europe and Russia, kr is Korea and Taiwan, cn is China, sea is South-East Asia and Oceania.

(S2 is Season 2, S3 is Season 3, S4 is Season 4)





Total players that placed in the 1v1 gametype, and players that placed in any ladder gametype. Season 3 data is time-modified (see bottom of post for details).

1V1 PLAYERS ALL PLAYERS

S3 S4 % diff S3 S4 % diff

us 335,388 279,119 (83.2%) 484,411 418,949 (86.5%)

eu 319,146 268,808 (84.2%) 441,186 387,052 (87.7%)

kr 133,279 132,729 (99.6%) 207,986 207,067 (99.6%)

cn 79,475 49,991 (62.9%) 98,446 63,600 (64.6%)

sea 34,328 27,812 (81.0%) 48,570 41,110 (84.6%)



Here are graphs of players over time.

Brown is season 2, silver season 3, gold season 4. The difference in season lengths is clear here.

+ Show Spoiler [Graphs!] +



















Here are players with at least 26 wins in 1v1, and all gametypes for seasons 2, 3, and 4. Percents are comparing season 4 to 3. On average, each player has played 50 games, but more platinum/diamond/masters players are represented compared to bronze/silver, because losses cannot be factored in. Seasons 2 and 3 data have been time-modified (see bottom of post for details).

1v1 players all players

2 3 4 % diff 2 3 4 % diff

us 114,521 106,081 80,346 (75.7%) 162,919 174,745 172,407 (98.7%)

eu 118,187 107,432 83,381 (77.6%) 164,559 175,381 172,464 (98.3%)

kr 41,787 45,974 39,774 (86.5%) 53,410 71,801 79,113 (110.2%)

cn 67,233 30,940 19,275 (62.3%) 50,599 29,735 31,903 (107.3%)

sea 12,889 10,845 7,988 (73.7%) 17,320 17,216 16,517 (95.9%)



Those percents remain similar across the whole range of games played. Below are graphs of similar data, between 0 wins (everybody) and 200 wins.

Brown is season 2, silver is season 3, gold is season 4. Data of seasons 2 and 3 are still time-modified.

+ Show Spoiler [More Graphs!] +





























Attrition rate

This consists of players that played in previous seasons, who returned in season 4. This is raw data, not taking into account the different season lengths.

total players ------------returning-------------

s3 s4 | s2/3 s3 %s2/3 %s3 | #new %new

us 551,524 418,949 367,333 346,153 (47.32%) (62.76%) 37,164 (10.74%)

eu 506,616 387,052 345,480 326,502 (49.53%) (64.45%) 30,604 (9.37%)

kr 248,954 207,067 166,933 156,859 (48.19%) (63.01%) 29,688 (18.93%)

cn 113,701 63,600 48,881 44,989 (16.42%) (39.57%) 14,719 (32.72%)

sea 55,633 41,110 36,859 34,538 (45.40%) (62.08%) 2,712 (7.85%) This one's moderately complicated, here's a short explanation.

In North America there were 418,949 players in season 4. 62.76% of players that played in season 3, also played in season 4. 47.32% of players that played in seasons 2 or 3, also played in season 4. 10.74% of players in season 4 did not play in seasons 1, 2, or 3.



Total new players: 114,887

New players average per day: 2,064

Compare to the season 3 new players: 240,505 (average 2,646 per day)





edit2: On request, a table of which league a player was in in season 3, if they did not return in season 4, from no 1v1 games, to bronze, to grandmaster.

Remember that Battle.net splits the active players evenly into bronze, silver, gold, plat at 20% each, 18% in diamond, and 2% in masters.

total no1v1 bronze silver gold plat diam mast gmast

us 205,371 86,740 35,609 29,840 24,760 18,977 7,365 2,065 15

eu 180,114 70,772 41,461 27,738 21,182 12,787 4,791 1,375 8

kr 92,095 44,503 14,777 14,766 9,662 5,718 2,006 654 9

cn 68,712 15,622 20,912 11,985 7,934 6,363 3,952 1,907 37

sea 21,095 8,269 5,469 2,885 1,969 1,466 747 278 12



total no1v1 bronze silver gold plat diam mast gmast

ALL 567,387 225,906 118,228 87,214 65,507 45,311 18,861 6,279 81



fin



What is "time-modified" data?

Season 2 lasted almost a month longer than season 3, which lasted 5 weeks longer than season 4. The numbers for games played cannot match up properly due to this time difference. I modify player numbers based on how many people I had logged at a time matching up to the length of season 4.

For example, Korea actually has 56,393 people with 26 or more wins, while my numbers in Table 2 state 41,787. Season 4 lasted 55 days, while season 2 lasted 118 days. (118 - 55 = 63) At the end of season 2, Korea had 221,819 players. 63 days prior to the end of season 2, Korea had 164,370 players, which is 74.100956blahblah % of its end-season amount. Multiply 56,393 (real number of >= 26 wins) by this percent, and you get the value in the table of 41,787.

Look at the first set of graphs (all players over time per season), and ignore everything to the right of the shortest curve. That's baseically what this process does.





tl;dr Total players drop on par with previous seasons, Korea holding strong. More(ish) active players, fewer active 1v1 players. 114,887 new players worldwide in the last 8 weeks. The new season starts at Christmas, will be intresting to see what happens. Doing a similar thing to my Season 1/2 and Season 1/2/3 data dumps for season 4.: Data collected with my own battle.net spider (it's not very user-friendly).Keep in mind, this only tracks ladder games, custom games are not looked at in any way. All data was updated at least 12 hours prior to the end of each season, numbers should be considered low by 0-1% based on trends of new players and games per day.is North America and Latin America,is Europe and Russia,is Korea and Taiwan,is China,is South-East Asia and Oceania.Total players that placed in the 1v1 gametype, and players that placed in any ladder gametype. Season 3 data is time-modified (see bottom of post for details).Here areBrown is season 2, silver season 3, gold season 4. The difference in season lengths is clear here.Here are players with at least 26 wins in 1v1, and all gametypes for seasons 2, 3, and 4. Percents are comparing season 4 to 3. On average, each player has played 50 games, but more platinum/diamond/masters players are represented compared to bronze/silver, because losses cannot be factored in. Seasons 2 and 3 data have been time-modified (see bottom of post for details).Those percents remain similar across the whole range of games played. Below are graphs of similar data, between 0 wins (everybody) and 200 wins.Brown is season 2, silver is season 3, gold is season 4. Data of seasons 2 and 3 are still time-modified.Attrition rateThis consists of players that played in previous seasons, who returned in season 4. This is raw data, not taking into account the different season lengths.This one's moderately complicated, here's a short explanation.In North America there were 418,949 players in season 4. 62.76% of players that played in season 3, also played in season 4. 47.32% of players that played in seasons 2 or 3, also played in season 4. 10.74% of players in season 4 did not play in seasons 1, 2, or 3.Total new players: 114,887New players average per day: 2,064Compare to the season 3 new players: 240,505 (average 2,646 per day): On request, a table of which league a player was in in season 3, if they did not return in season 4, from no 1v1 games, to bronze, to grandmaster.Remember that Battle.net splits theplayers evenly into bronze, silver, gold, plat at 20% each, 18% in diamond, and 2% in masters.Season 2 lasted almost a month longer than season 3, which lasted 5 weeks longer than season 4. The numbers for games played cannot match up properly due to this time difference. I modify player numbers based on how many people I had logged at a time matching up to the length of season 4.For example, Korea actually has 56,393 people with 26 or more wins, while my numbers in Table 2 state 41,787. Season 4 lasted 55 days, while season 2 lasted 118 days. (118 - 55 = 63) At the end of season 2, Korea had 221,819 players. 63 days prior to the end of season 2, Korea had 164,370 players, which is 74.100956blahblah % of its end-season amount. Multiply 56,393 (real number of >= 26 wins) by this percent, and you get the value in the table of 41,787.Look at the first set of graphs (all players over time per season), and ignore everything to the right of the shortest curve. That's baseically what this process does.Total players drop on par with previous seasons, Korea holding strong. More(ish) active players, fewer active 1v1 players. 114,887 new players worldwide in the last 8 weeks. The new season starts at Christmas, will be intresting to see what happens.

zyce Profile Blog Joined March 2011 United States 648 Posts #2 Thanks for gathering and posting these statistics, they're interesting to read. Beauty is not the goal of competitive sports, but high-level sports are a prime venue for the expression of human beauty. The relation is roughly that of courage to war.

Whynaut Profile Blog Joined January 2011 Canada 366 Posts #3 Weird/sad to see China's numbers drop so far, so quickly. From what I understand, Bilizzard's distribution model is different in China, but I'm not sure on the details (it's a subscription-like thing, right?) I guess that may be coming back to bite them.





IMNotMvp Profile Joined May 2011 Korea (South) 530 Posts #4 very nice

bananajk Profile Joined April 2011 Germany 89 Posts #5 Where do you get all this informations from ? fragster.de | [F_]ragster

TheLindyHop Profile Joined March 2011 United States 51 Posts Last Edited: 2011-12-26 16:52:39 #6 I'm from the US.

looks like I'll need to get a KR version of SC after the next 46 seasons =\



Also, I think it would be neat, if someone fit equations to all these lines. =D

I feel like some natural logarithms get to be used somewhere... Starcraft is hard >_<

swordboy Profile Joined August 2011 Canada 299 Posts #7 On December 27 2011 01:46 Whynaut wrote:

Weird/sad to see China's numbers drop so far, so quickly. From what I understand, Bilizzard's distribution model is different in China, but I'm not sure on the details (it's a subscription-like thing, right?) I guess that may be coming back to bite them.







SC2 in China still charge on a monthly basis and don't even have a full edition of the game for sale, that can explain a lot. SC2 in China still charge on a monthly basis and don't even have a full edition of the game for sale, that can explain a lot. MarineKing | ThorZaIN | IMMvp | MMA | Sase | Sen | Kas

Whynaut Profile Blog Joined January 2011 Canada 366 Posts #8 On December 27 2011 01:52 swordboy wrote:

Show nested quote +

On December 27 2011 01:46 Whynaut wrote:

Weird/sad to see China's numbers drop so far, so quickly. From what I understand, Bilizzard's distribution model is different in China, but I'm not sure on the details (it's a subscription-like thing, right?) I guess that may be coming back to bite them.







SC2 in China still charge on a monthly basis and don't even have a full edition of the game for sale, that can explain a lot. SC2 in China still charge on a monthly basis and don't even have a full edition of the game for sale, that can explain a lot.



Thank you! Thank you!

Recognizable Profile Blog Joined December 2011 Netherlands 1550 Posts #9 On December 27 2011 01:52 swordboy wrote:

Show nested quote +

On December 27 2011 01:46 Whynaut wrote:

Weird/sad to see China's numbers drop so far, so quickly. From what I understand, Bilizzard's distribution model is different in China, but I'm not sure on the details (it's a subscription-like thing, right?) I guess that may be coming back to bite them.







SC2 in China still charge on a monthly basis and don't even have a full edition of the game for sale, that can explain a lot. SC2 in China still charge on a monthly basis and don't even have a full edition of the game for sale, that can explain a lot.



Yeah and apparently they don't even want it on a montly basis but more like on a weekly or daily basis right?



Yeah and apparently they don't even want it on a montly basis but more like on a weekly or daily basis right?

MartynX Profile Joined May 2011 United Kingdom 122 Posts #10 Korea will be growing a lot with all of the foreign players getting accounts and travelling out there to practise.

muffley Profile Blog Joined May 2010 United States 280 Posts #11 On December 27 2011 01:49 GerBanana wrote:

Where do you get all this informations from ?

Back when the starcraft 2 battle.net pages were put up at the end of beta, I was unemployed so I wrote a spider to gather information from it. I run it every so often to gather data. Back when the starcraft 2 battle.net pages were put up at the end of beta, I was unemployed so I wrote a spider to gather information from it. I run it every so often to gather data. It's on sourceforge , but it's seriously not a simple thing to use.

nerfherder182 Profile Joined December 2011 53 Posts #12 what are the average players who quit a day



mememolly Profile Joined December 2011 4764 Posts #13 On December 27 2011 01:59 MartynX wrote:

Korea will be growing a lot with all of the foreign players getting accounts and travelling out there to practise.



a handful of accounts won't make that much difference a handful of accounts won't make that much difference

swordboy Profile Joined August 2011 Canada 299 Posts #14 The number of all players with 25+ wins on cn for s3 is wrong i guess, it's less than the number of 1v1. MarineKing | ThorZaIN | IMMvp | MMA | Sase | Sen | Kas

Primadog Profile Blog Joined April 2010 United States 4408 Posts Last Edited: 2011-12-26 17:11:03 #15 CN numbers are a bit shocking, considering the strength they showed at WCG recently. I understand SC2Ratings rely on web/network searching, so is it simply the lack of initial data? Thank God and gunrun.

muffley Profile Blog Joined May 2010 United States 280 Posts #16 On December 27 2011 02:08 swordboy wrote:

The number of all players with 25+ wins on cn for s3 is wrong i guess, it's less than the number of 1v1.

See details on what time-modified data does. Since s3 was 5 weeks shorter than s4, I compensate somewhat for that since many fewer people would have x number of wins after 55 days as opposed to 90 days. See details on what time-modified data does. Since s3 was 5 weeks shorter than s4, I compensate somewhat for that since many fewer people would have x number of wins after 55 days as opposed to 90 days.

swordboy Profile Joined August 2011 Canada 299 Posts #17 On December 27 2011 02:11 muffley wrote:

Show nested quote +

On December 27 2011 02:08 swordboy wrote:

The number of all players with 25+ wins on cn for s3 is wrong i guess, it's less than the number of 1v1.

See details on what time-modified data does. Since s3 was 5 weeks shorter than s4, I compensate somewhat for that since many fewer people would have x number of wins after 55 days as opposed to 90 days. See details on what time-modified data does. Since s3 was 5 weeks shorter than s4, I compensate somewhat for that since many fewer people would have x number of wins after 55 days as opposed to 90 days.



nvm, my mistake.



On December 27 2011 01:57 Recognizable wrote:

Show nested quote +

On December 27 2011 01:52 swordboy wrote:

On December 27 2011 01:46 Whynaut wrote:

Weird/sad to see China's numbers drop so far, so quickly. From what I understand, Bilizzard's distribution model is different in China, but I'm not sure on the details (it's a subscription-like thing, right?) I guess that may be coming back to bite them.







SC2 in China still charge on a monthly basis and don't even have a full edition of the game for sale, that can explain a lot. SC2 in China still charge on a monthly basis and don't even have a full edition of the game for sale, that can explain a lot.



Yeah and apparently they don't even want it on a montly basis but more like on a weekly or daily basis right?



Yeah and apparently they don't even want it on a montly basis but more like on a weekly or daily basis right?



The problem is the monthly basis is the only way of charging in China, different people will have different demand. Monthly basis is very inconvenient so that many progamers and active players in China go to other servers and drives less active players away quickly. nvm, my mistake.The problem is the monthly basis is the only way of charging in China, different people will have different demand. Monthly basis is very inconvenient so that many progamers and active players in China go to other servers and drives less active players away quickly. MarineKing | ThorZaIN | IMMvp | MMA | Sase | Sen | Kas

SeAK Profile Joined September 2010 Canada 69 Posts #18 I wonder how many of the active players are just the same people with smurf accounts

FLiPNoTiK Profile Joined May 2007 United States 62 Posts #19 Muffley, Play more Starcraft bro.

muffley Profile Blog Joined May 2010 United States 280 Posts #20 On December 27 2011 02:38 FLiPNoTiK wrote:

Muffley, Play more Starcraft bro.

ookayyyyyyyyy ookayyyyyyyyy

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