(This story originally appeared in on Apr 18, 2018)

With less than a month to go for Karnataka assembly polls, the political betting industry has become active in the state. Contrary to the results of pre-poll surveys that indicated a hung assembly, BJP is a firm favourite among the bookies.In the first round of betting, bookies are offering odds of 11 to 10 for BJP. Which means, for every Rs 10, Rs 11 is the stake offered if BJP gets 113 seats.This translates to a takeaway of Rs 21. The second favourite is Congress and the odds are at 2.5 to 1. JDS, whose chances of achieving the magic number are bleak, is running at 6 to 1. The betting amount in the industry jargon is called ‘bhav’.The party-wise betting market in Bengaluru is estimated to be worth around Rs 750 to 800 crore. This apart, once the nominations are finalised, there will be candidate-wise betting in the respective constituencies.According to sources, over the last one week, following the India Today-Karvy Insights opinion poll which has predicted a hung assembly, the odds on favourite has dropped down to 96 paisa from 11 to 10 .“The opening betting saw the odds at 11 to 10. After the pre-poll opinion survey results, more people are fancying BJP and bookmakers feel that BJP will emerge as the single largest party. This has resulted in the bhav dropping down to 96 paisa now,’’ explained an industry source.India Today-Karvy Insights opinion polls has projected the Congress to secure between 90 and 101 seats while BJP’s fortunes would be sealed at 78 -86 seats. Janata Dal (Secular), which is being touted as a kingmaker, is projected to bag 34 to 43 seats.The betting industry has a coterie of kingmaker bookies who have their own intelligence channels to analyse the political situation and arrive at the numbers. Since they do this during every election, the bookmakers are quite hands on. Once the elections are announced and the frenzy starts picking up, this group open the odds and everybody picks it up. The odds can change in the following days depending on the announcement of candidates and the campaigns. Local bookies also customise the odds to suit the ground situation.Congress, which the surveys have projected to bag maximum seats, is the second favourite with odds at 2.5 to 1. Similarly, the bhav on JD(S) is 6 to 1 and the bookies are expecting around 31-33 seats for the party.