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On the roster: Poll reveals deep divisions over Kavanaugh - Time Out: The great Bermudan gunpowder caper - Still his party: Obama makes more of endorsements - Audible: Teetotally - Boy oh boy



POLL REVEALS DEEP DIVISIONS OVER KAVANAUGH

Quinnipiac University: “With wide gender, racial and partisan gaps, and a shift in support among independent voters, 48 percent of American voters say the U.S. Senate should not confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court, as 42 percent say Kavanaugh should be confirmed, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today. This compares to the results of a September survey by the independent Quinnipiac University National Poll, showing 41 percent of American voters supporting a Kavanaugh confirmation, with 42 percent opposed. Independent voters, who supported Kavanaugh 45 - 39 percent September 10, oppose his confirmation 49 - 39 percent today. Women oppose confirmation 55 - 37 percent, while men support it 49 - 40 percent. White voters say 51 - 40 percent confirm Kavanaugh. Opposed are black voters 81 - 11 percent and Hispanic voters 65 - 30 percent. Choosing between Kavanaugh and his accuser, Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, 48 percent of American voters most believe Ford as 41 percent most believe Kavanaugh.”



Trump rated lower in trustworthiness than Obama, Bush and Clinton - Pew Research Center: “Donald Trump receives generally negative ratings from the public across a range of personal traits and characteristics. Just 24% of Americans say Trump is even-tempered, while nearly three times as many (70%) say that description does not apply to him. Fewer than half say that Trump is a strong leader (43%), well-informed (38%), empathetic (36%) or trustworthy (34%). … A large majority (68%) – including about half of Democrats – says Trump is ‘someone who stands up for what he believes in.’ The latest national survey by Pew Research Center, conducted Sept. 18-24 among 1,754 adults, finds that Trump gets lower ratings than his predecessors in recent midterm years – Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton – for being trustworthy, empathetic and well-informed. However, Trump fares comparatively well in public perceptions of his ability to get things done. … As has been the case since he became president, Trump’s job approval ratings are divided along partisan lines; they are more polarized than any president’s dating to Dwight Eisenhower.”



THE RULEBOOK: SAFETY FIRST

“Safety from external danger is the most powerful director of national conduct. Even the ardent love of liberty will, after a time, give way to its dictates.” – Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 8

TIME OUT: THE GREAT BERMUDAN GUNPOWDER CAPER

Smithsonian: “For most of 1775, Revolutionary troops under the command of George Washington had the British Army trapped in Boston, but it was hard to say who was at the mercy of whom. By July, after three months of skirmishes against the Redcoats, Washington’s soldiers had only enough gunpowder for nine bullets per man. The year prior, as tensions in the colonies worsened, George III banned the import of firearms and gunpowder from Europe, and had been confiscating them in a bid to disarm the rebellion. The only American gunpowder mill, the Frankford Powder-Mill in Pennsylvania, wasn’t producing enough to fight a war. … Since 1691, the colonial authorities in Bermuda had instituted a policy that required visiting ships to donate either money or gunpowder to the island every time they arrived, according to Dorcas Roberts, the director of preservation of the Bermuda National Trust, a historical preservation charity. Over the years that amounted to a great deal of gunpowder.”



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SCOREBOARD

Trump job performance

Average approval: 42.8 percent

Average disapproval: 52.2 percent

Net Score: -9.4 points

Change from one week ago: up 3.8 points

[Average includes: Gallup: 42% approve - 53% disapprove; Pew Research Center: 38% approve - 55% disapprove; NPR/PBS/Marist: 44% approve - 49% disapprove; Fox News: 46% approve - 52% disapprove; NBC/WSJ: 44% approve - 52% disapprove.]



Control of House

Republican average: 42 percent

Democratic average: 50.2 percent

Advantage: Democrats plus 8.2 points

Change from one week ago: Democratic advantage down 2 points

[Average includes: Pew Research Center: 52% Dems - 42% GOP; NPR/PBS/Marist: 48% Dems - 41% GOP; Gallup: 51% Dems - 42% GOP; Fox News: 49% Dems - 42% GOP; NBC/WSJ: 51% Dems - 43% GOP.]



STILL HIS PARTY: OBAMA MAKES MORE OF ENDORSEMENTS

Fox News: “Former President Barack Obama on Monday endorsed dozens of Democrats in races across the country, including liberal darling Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in her New York House race. Obama had left Ocasio-Cortez off his initial round of 81 endorsements over the summer, prompting speculation over why the ex-president had seemingly snubbed the Democratic socialist candidate… However, on Monday, Obama included her name on the list of 260 endorsed candidates for governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House and state legislatures. ‘The Democratic Party has always made the biggest difference in the lives of the American people when we lead with conviction, principle, and bold, new ideas,’ Obama said in a statement. … This time around, Obama seemed to snub Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic candidate running against Ted Cruz, R-Texas, for his Senate seat, and Rep. Keith Ellison, who is running for attorney general of Minnesota. Ellison is currently facing allegations of domestic abuse, which he denies. As for the endorsements Obama did make, Republicans countered that they would do more harm than good.”



New poll shows N.J. Senate race in dead heat - Stockton University: “The race for a U.S. Senate seat in New Jersey is a statistical dead heat, with incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez leading Republican challenger Bob Hugin by two percentage points, according to a Stockton University poll released today. Menendez leads with 45 percent to Hugin’s 43 percent five weeks before the Nov. 6 election, according to poll numbers of likely voters who say they lean toward one candidate or the other. Libertarian Murray Sabrin pulls 3 percent, while other candidates and undecided voters total 8 percent. Menendez, who was reprimanded by a Senate ethics panel after corruption charges were dismissed following a mistrial, is viewed unfavorably by 54 percent, with 30 percent having favorable views and 6 percent unsure. Hugin is viewed favorably by 34 percent and unfavorably by 21 percent, although 43 percent are not familiar with him. Only 10 percent are unfamiliar with Menendez.”



New poll shows tight race for Iowa’s 3rd district - NYT: “Cindy Axne is a small-business owner [with] 35% favorable rating; 30% unfavorable; 35% don’t know. David Young is the current [Republican] representative, first elected in 2014 [with] 38% favorable rating; 40% unfavorable; 22% don’t know. This overwhelmingly white district includes the core of the Democratic-leaning Des Moines metropolitan area as well as a segment of conservative, rural western Iowa, where Mr. Trump made big gains in 2016. Mr. Young, who worked as a Senate aide for years before seeking office himself, has cultivated a mild-mannered persona, avoiding the sometimes inflammatory language of his fellow Iowan Steve King. But his voting record is similar, equally supportive of President Trump’s agenda. Mr. Young showed a sizable fund-raising advantage in the most recent reporting period, $1.7 million to his opponent’s $1 million.”



First-timer McGrath hauls in stunning sum in Kentucky House run - Roll Call: “Democrat Amy McGrath announced Monday that her campaign raised $3.65 million in the third quarter for her bid against GOP Rep. Andy Barr in Kentucky’s 6th District. The $3.65 million haul came from more than 32,000 donations, according to the campaign, which said it has raised $6.65 million since it began in August last year. McGrath finished the third quarter, which ended on Sept. 30, with $1.7 million in the bank. McGrath’s quarterly number is astoundingly large for a House candidate. At the end of the second quarter, New Jersey Democrat Mikie Sherrill earned headlines for raising $1.9 million, which was more than what many Senate candidates raised during the same period.”

Cisneros’ accuser recants her claim against the Dem congressional hopeful - Fox News: “A California woman who accused congressional hopeful Gil Cisneros of sexual misconduct has reversed course after meeting with the Democrat. Melissa Fazli, a Democratic activist and documentary filmmaker, previously alleged Cisneros propositioned her during a party convention earlier this year and said she interpreted another interaction as him wanting ‘to have sex with me in exchange’ for a political donation. But after a meeting was facilitated this weekend, Fazli is changing her tune. ‘I misunderstood the conversations that I had with Gil Cisneros at the Democratic convention and after. I don’t believe that Gil sexually harassed me,’ she said in a statement released by the Cisneros campaign Monday. In his own statement, Cisneros said he decided to reach out to Fazli after ‘seeing the pain of Dr. Ford and so many women and the dismissiveness of both Judge Kavanaugh and Washington Republicans.’ … Cisneros faces Republican Young Kim in the November election for the 39th congressional district. Fox News has ranked the race, open with the retirement of Republican Rep. Ed Royce, a tossup.”

Puerto Rico governor to double endorse Nelson, Gillum - Politico: “Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rosselló is expected to endorse Sen. Bill Nelson (D. Fla.) and gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum on Monday in the heart of Florida’s Boricua community, giving both Democrats’ campaigns a potential lift with this crucial demographic. Rosselló at 10:45 a.m. will make a ‘special announcement’ with Nelson by his side, according to Nelson’s campaign. And at 1:15 p.m., Gillum’s campaign says, he’ll stand beside Gillum for another press conference in Kissimmee. Neither campaign would confirm the endorsement, nor could a spokesperson for Rosselló be reached. However, two top Democratic Party officials confirmed that Rosselló will endorse both men — partly due to Democratic Party pressure and also because disgust with President Donald Trump’s controversial and inaccurate statements on the federal government’s lackluster post-Hurricane Maria recovery have proven too much for Rosselló to bear.”



Willie remains high on Beto - Fox News: “Willie Nelson debuted a new, politically-driven song during his free concert in support of Texas Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke on Saturday night in Austin. The 85-year-old star closed out his show with the new single ‘Vote ‘Em Out,’ in which he calls on listeners to take action against candidates they dislike. … Although the rally was in support of Sen. Ted Cruz’s opposition, Beto O’Rourke, the lyrics on their own were more a call to vote in general than an indictment of any one candidate. According to Rolling Stone, O’Rourke appeared at the rally, addressing the crowd by encouraging them to vote for him and even joining Nelson for a rendition of his classic hit, ‘On the Road Again.’”



PLAY-BY-PLAY

U.S., Canada reach trade deal to save, revamp NAFTA - NYT



Char-LIT: Republicans announce dates, details for 2020 convention - Charlotte Observer



Flake heading back to New Hampshire - St. Anselm College



Warren says she’ll consider 2020 after midterms - Politico



Trump administration sues California for net neutrality protections - LAT



HBD: Jimmy Carter becomes only the second U.S. president to reach age 94 - AJC



AUDIBLE: TEETOTALLY

“I can honestly say I’ve never had a beer in my life. It’s one of my only good traits. … Can you imagine if I had what a mess I’d be?” – President Trump answering a reporter’s question about the claims that Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh was a heavy drinker in high school and college.



FROM THE BLEACHERS

“What concerns me most about the Kavanaugh nomination is how many of our national leaders are willing to trash values that have served us well for centuries, like the rule of law, the presumption of innocence, the difference between an accusation and a conviction, the importance of giving everyone a seat at the table and a chance to be heard, finding ways to maintain good relationships with others who may have different opinions, the need for a fair process that includes a timetable, etc. In my opinion, neither party has clean hands as these eternal values are regularly thrown under the bus in order to achieve a specific short-term political outcome. I wonder how many of our national leaders and the public are aware that the only alternative to the rule of law is the law of the jungle, where might makes right.” – Sandy Harlow, Timonium, Md.



[Ed. note: Well said, Ms. Harlow! Not to be too self-indulgent, but that was a big part in my thinking about “Every Man a King.” Bad things are often popular. That’s why our Founders put so many obstacles in the way of change. We have very much lately been in a mood of tearing down institutions that Americans across the political spectrum say are insufficiently responsive to the will of the people. But we are burning through our inventory pretty quickly at this rate. You have correctly described what awaits us on the other side: the tyranny of the majority. That’s far scarier than subjugation at the hands of King George III could have ever been.]

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BOY OH BOY

NY Post: “An off-duty Border Patrol agent celebrating his wife’s pregnancy last year accidentally started a 47,000-acre wildfire that took nearly 800 firefighters to extinguish, his attorney and federal authorities said. Dennis Dickey, 37, of Tucson, Arizona, pleaded guilty on Friday to igniting the Sawmill Fire, which caused more than $8 million worth of damage in April 2017 when the off-duty Border Patrol agent shot a target containing Tannerite, a legal but highly explosive substance designed to detonate when shot by a high-velocity firearm, according to the US Attorney’s Office in Arizona. The target was part of Dickey’s pre-planned celebration to announce the gender of the couple’s child and contained blue powder for a boy and pink powder for a girl, Dickey’s attorney, Sean Chapman, told the Arizona Daily Star. ‘It was a complete accident,’ Dickey told a judge Friday. ‘I feel absolutely horrible about it. It was probably one of the worst days of my life.’”

AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…

“Trump has mesmerized the national media not just with his elaborate Cabinet-selection production, by now Broadway-ready. But with a cluster of equally theatrical personal interventions that by traditional standards seem distinctly unpresidential.” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writing in the Washington Post on Dec. 8, 2016.



Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.