The other day I issued a warning about the Chinese economy. It is, I wrote, “emerging as a danger spot in a world economy that really, really doesn’t need this right now.”

Unfortunately, the other day was more than 6 years ago. And it’s not just me. Many people have been predicting a China crisis for a long time, and it has kept on not happening.

But now China seems to be stumbling again. Is this the moment when all the prophecies of big trouble in big China finally come true? Honestly, I have no idea.

On one side, China’s problems are real. On the other, the Chinese government – hindered neither by rigid ideology nor by anything resembling a democratic political process – has repeatedly shown its ability and willingness to do whatever it takes to prop up its economy. It’s really anyone’s guess whether this time will be different, or whether Xi-who-must-be-obeyed can pull out another recovery.