In asserting, sadly but firmly, on the Senate floor Tuesday that there "may not be a place" for him in Donald Trump's Republican Party, Arizona Senator Jeff Flake shined light on the notion that today there is not one Republican Party but many.

Only twice in the past century – when former president Theodore Roosevelt turned on his hand-picked successor, William Howard Taft, and when a delegation of GOP senior statesmen prevailed upon Richard Nixon to step down – has there been such dramatic mutinies within a party that for decades has been the repository of steady habits and whose cultural touchstone has been stability.

The effect – after a 24-hour period in which Mr. Flake charged that Mr. Trump was promoting "the degradation of our politics" and Tennessee Senator Bob Corker stated that the President was responsible for "the debasing of our nation, the constant non-truth telling, [and] name-calling" – is the astonishing breakdown of the discipline of a party that customarily has personified discipline.

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And though the physics of American politics militates against party splits, it is not exactly a parlour game to contemplate the Republicans breaking up, perhaps as soon as 2020, into several factions and perhaps into several camps or caucuses, some of which could possibly become parties on their own. Here's a look at the various parties that might emerge



watch Senator Bob Corker says Trump ‘debases our country’ 2:22

The Trump Rump

Because Mr. Trump occupies the White House and has nominal control of the Republican National Committee, this must be regarded as the principal party, at least through the beginning of the 2020 caucuses and primaries. This party consists of social and cultural conservatives in rural areas, anti-elitists, blue-collar voters who believe their interests have not been served and their voices have not been heard, and new-age insurgents like Steve Bannon who believe Washington is in thrall to a "deep state" more interested in preserving its prerogatives than seeking the public good.

Critical question: Will this "party" break away or will it be the foundation stone of the new Republican Party? The key will be the strength of the Bannon movement and the vestigial loyalty of Republican regulars.

Jeb Bush speaks at a rally at Summerville Country Club in Summerville, S.C., Feb. 17, 2016. Andrew Harnik/AP

The Establishment Entity

These are the business executives, major lobby groups, some legacy think tanks, Rotarians, small-business owners, white-collar workers, family farmers and lawmakers from what once was the heart of the Republican Party. Their candidate in the 2016 primary season was former governor Jeb Bush of Florida, whose father, George H.W. Bush, remains their cultural touchstone. Members of this entity would include such figures as senators Rob Portman of Ohio and Lamar Alexander of Tennessee.

Critical question: Will another member of this group break with Mr. Trump this month, or before year's end? If others do, Mr. Trump's power will diminish substantially and his presidency will be in peril.





In this Sept. 6, 2017, file photo, Ted Cruz speaks on Capitol Hill in Washington. Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

Conservative Caucus

In this group are those who criticized George W. Bush for his excessive spending and doubt Mr. Trump's adherence to conservative principles. This group is a strange-bedfellows repository that includes religious conservatives, libertarians and social and economic conservatives, many of whom were attracted to the presidential campaigns of senators Rand Paul of Kentucky, Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida.

Critical question: Are the wounds from the brutal 2016 campaign still so raw that the three senators and their allies will recoil from Mr. Trump, or will the President's occasional embrace of their principles, especially in the emerging tax-overhaul battle, keep them silent and compliant? Their defection could doom the tax bill – and other White House legislative priorities.

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In this Thursday, Aug. 17, 2017, file photo, U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, speaks to members of the media while attending an event in Lewiston, Maine. Robert F. Bukaty/Ap

Democratic Republicans

Borrowing a term from Thomas Jefferson for a group that doesn't exist except in early 19th-century history and, in practical terms, in the Congress of the mid-20th century, these are the lineal descendants of the liberal Republicans and non-segregationist Democrats who voted for Medicare and the civil-rights and voting-rights bills of the 1960s. In their 21st-century incarnation they might include Republican senators such as John McCain of Arizona, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Ben Sasse of Nebraska – plus some Democrats, perhaps some who feel that the current capital intransigence and the lack of bipartisanship is eroding American democracy.

Critical question: Is the centripetal force of a century of party identity – the force in nature and in American politics that pulls toward a familiar centre – so strong that an alliance between members of the two parties is beyond contemplation? The emergence of such a party – the creation of a political institution representing what the late Harvard historian Arthur Schlesinger Jr. called the "vital centre" – would be an unlikely but major development in American history.

WATCH Republican senator takes aim at Trump in speech 1:04

None of these parties has formed, nor has any breakaway party been contemplated. But this reflects the reality of the Republican Party today – and both the opportunity and peril that a breakup of today's GOP might produce.

In all, it underlines that Washington is no longer what the legendary Frank G. Carpenter, who wrote for the old Cleveland Leader newspaper, described as "one vast boarding house … a city of toadies, always cheering for the party on top."

That's because, unlike the Washington that Carpenter described in 1883, today's Washington is a boarding house of toadies who in the past year haven't been cheering for the party on top, because there is no party on top any more. For a Republican Party that believes in hierarchy – a party that for decades was ruled by establishment elders – that is a serious threat indeed.

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