Deangelo Williams Becomes an Elite Fantasy Option While Jonathan Stewart is Sidelined

Alex Dunlap, Rosterwatch.com



Photo via Deangelo Williams Twitter

Sometimes people forget that Panthers RB Deangelo Williams is a tough, gifted and instinctual runner. In today’s NFL, teams cannot make a business of paying mediocre running backs five-year, $43 million contracts as the Panthers have with Williams.

Williams hasn’t been a solid fantasy option for three years, though – thanks in main part to competition for touches in the Carolina backfield with Jonathan Stewart.

This is set to change – at least for the first six weeks of the 2013 NFL season – as Stewart has been placed on the PUP list with a lingering foot injury that won’t seem to ever subside. The earliest fantasy owners of Deangelo Williams in 2013 will have to deal with the Stewart-thorn in their side will be Week 7, and that is no guarantee to come to fruition given the pokey nature of Stewart’s recovery thus far.

In looking back at the last three years, fantasy players will see that Williams’ natural talent coupled with even the smallest bit of volume and involvement in the game plan yields tremendously positive results for fantasy football.

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13 carries doesn’t seem like much when analyzing running back stats, but in a talented-platoon backfield, it’s a number that Williams has only reached or eclipsed 10 times in the last three seasons.

What happens when Williams gets at least a measly 13 carries?

In those 10 games, Williams averaged 16.9 fantasy points in standard leagues. When receiving 20 carries or more in the same span, Williams has averaged an absolutely ridiculous 26.85 fantasy points per game.

When receiving under 13 carries? Well that’s the undependable Deangelo Williams many owners have come to hate. In these cases, he averages a week-killing 6.1 points-per-game.

We at Rosterwatch have preached the importance of getting off to a fast start in fantasy leagues since coming into existence. The value that can be had by fleecing desperate, losing owners in the trade deluge that generally comes in Week 4 is a traditional hallmark of winning roster management, but must be administered from a position of strength.

With a 7th round ADP, Williams can currently be had as an RB3 or RB4 rotational-flex-option at tremendous value. We have little faith in rookie Kenjon Barner after an offseason of scouting analysis. We know Mike Tolbert is who he is, which is a fluky TD vulture and virtual non-factor outside of those circumstances.

The Panthers have an early Week 4 bye, so that is something to keep in mind, but what owners of Williams will be getting through the first five games of the season (and likely more), will be the type of volume that has yielded monster flex performances decisively and easily in the past.