A Diplomatic High Point

The words “100 years” have an almost magical power in Russian. The desire to live to 100 is perceived as a wish for eternal life. This may be because—unlike the Japanese—Russians rarely live so long.

A centennial is the most significant of anniversaries. People are interested in what happened 100 years ago, even if it is a relatively trivial event. The Russo-Japanese pact of 1916, however, was far from trivial.

On July 3, 1916, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Sazonov and Japanese Ambassador Motono Ichirō signed a treaty in Petrograd (today Saint Petersburg) concluding a military and political alliance. This marked the all-time high point of the two countries’ relations. The following year, the Russian Revolution rendered the alliance void, burying its potential for cooperation at a scale historians can only guess at. But rather than speculating, let us consider the historical facts.

From the beginning of 1915, Japanese newspapers had been talking about the need for an alliance with Russia. Both nations were fighting against Germany and the Central Powers in the early stages of World War I. Nikolai Malevsky-Malevich, the Russian ambassador to Japan, wrote to Foreign Minister Sazonov that since the outbreak of the war, voices in the Japanese media debating an alliance had become so commonplace that there was hardly a newspaper or periodical that had not discussed it. He added that the idea had already proved popular among the general public.

At the heart of the debate was the question of what it would mean to be in an alliance. For most, this implied that both countries would be obliged to provide military assistance to the other in the case of conflict with a third party, as in the Anglo-Japanese Alliance of the time. Was such a treaty with Russia necessary?

“Imperial Diplomacy” as a Key to Alliance

In February 1915, Field Marshal Yamagata Aritomo, a former prime minister, submitted a memorandum to the Japanese government. He was skeptical about the chances for victory of the Allied Powers and believed that the war would end in a stalemate. This would disrupt the global balance of power, leading to heightened tensions in Asia, where he believed the United States would join the fight. In addition to the existing agreement with Britain, Yamagata proposed to form an alliance with Russia that would obligate the nations to render military support and protect the territorial integrity of China—the implication was, from countries that were not part of the alliance.

Prime Minister Ōkuma Shigenobu’s cabinet rejected the proposal, so Yamagata decided to enlist the support of Emperor Taishō. The quickest route to success, as he saw it, was to have a member of the Russian imperial house visit Tokyo. Later in 1915, Major General Nakajima Masatake, who was assigned as an observer to the general headquarters of the Russian army, casually remarked in conversation with the czar’s surgeon, Sergei Fedorov: “If the czar sent a grand duke to Japan, it would undoubtedly make a wonderful impression, and Japan would intensify its efforts to help Russia in its struggle against Germany.”

This wish was conveyed to Czar Nicholas II, who the very next day entrusted this mission to Grand Duke George Mikhailovich. The ostensible purpose of the visit was to congratulate Emperor Taishō on the completion of his formal enthronement ceremonies in November 1915. When the grand duke arrived in Tokyo in January 1916, the emperor himself met him at the station.

After negotiations by individual diplomats came to an impasse, Yamagata demanded that Foreign Minister Ishii Kikujirō reach a general agreement with Russia. He insisted that maintenance of peace and security in East Asia was only possible through cooperation between the two empires. Ishii and Ōkuma did not particularly want an alliance with the continental giant, but Yamagata doggedly imposed his will.

Many earlier historians believed that Ambassador Motono had drawn up the treaty for the 1916 alliance. The documents, however, show the role of Yamagata in paving the way with his great diplomatic skills and geopolitical thinking. A key element of his strategy was “imperial diplomacy.” After the visit of the grand duke as an emissary of Czar Nicholas II, and his welcome by Emperor Taishō, there was no room for open objections. The rest was a matter of simple procedure.

On February 18, 1916, Motono handed Sazonov a note suggesting that official negotiations be opened. Taking into account Russia’s weakness in the Far East, Nicholas II recognized the usefulness of the alliance with Japan. The treaty was a new stage in the countries’ relations, just a decade after the close of the Russo-Japanese War (1904–5). It is therefore wrong to see it as a sign that Russia was giving up its hopes of influence in the region.