WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Five years ago, a messy Greek exit from the eurozone could have ignited a global chain reaction that derailed a fragile U.S. economic recovery.

Now, the latest Greek debt drama is considered unlikely to generate more than a temporary ripple in the U.S. The biggest impact could be to persuade the Federal Reserve to hold off raising interest rates, but just a bit longer than the central bank had already planned.

A lot has changed since 2010. The vast majority of Greek debt is now in the hands of the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and eurozone governments, not the private-sector banks. That will limit damage from a potential default from radiating beyond Greek borders.

“There are more ring fences to limit the reaction from default,” said Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo.

The U.S., for its part, has a much stronger economy than it did in 2010. While the European Union is one of the nation's biggest trading partners, a mere 0.5% of American exports — $773 million in 2014 — head to Greece. That’s one-tenth as much as was sold to Ireland.

A much bigger threat than Greece, analysts say, is the cloudy economic picture in China. Chinese stocks have been whipsawed over the past few after an extended runup that generated talk of a bubble. The hope is that a surprise weekend cut in interest rates by the central bank can prop up the economy and stabilize the stock market.

Still, the debt crisis put pressure on U.S. stocks Monday after the left-wing Greek government broke off talks with creditors. The government has scheduled a vote on Sunday to ask voters if they support new austerity measures sought by the EU. (Read the question here.)

It’s still unclear whether Greece could be forced to leave the euro, although a senior European Union official warned that a “no” vote on Sunday would also be a no to Europe.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 300 points at one point Monday as investors dumped riskier assets. Investors also were unnerved by the continued sell-off in China and a warning from Puerto Rico that it can’t pay off its debts.

On Tuesday, U.S. stocks partly bounced back. The Dow rose 60 points in late-morning trades.

The tumult in financial markets, if it persists, could force the Fed to delay an increase in interest rates. The central bank had been expected to act as early as September, but an ongoing Greek crisis could unnerve American investors, businesses and consumers.

“The biggest effect [on the U.S.] would be market turmoil,” said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Capital Markets America.

On Friday, Fed Vice Chairman William Dudley on Friday called the Greek situation a “wild card.” A few weeks earlier, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, told an audience in Germany that “spillover” effects from a Greek impasse could “affect our outlook as well.”

Spillover effects could include weaker U.S. exports if an already strong dollar rises further in value and raises the cost of American goods and services. Lower exports contributed to a 0.2% decline in U.S. first-quarter growth.

The Fed’s caution should come as no surprise. The central bank wants to be absolutely certain the U.S. economy is on a stable growth path before it raises rates for the first time since 2006. Yet even though the Greek economy is a small one, there’s no guarantee a wider contagion can be contained.

“Nobody really knows where the Greek situation will end up. Nobody,” said Frank Friedman, chief financial office of Deloitte LLP, the global business-consulting firm.