A poll published on behalf of German tabloid Bild has found that 16 percent of voters would choose the right-wing, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD), half-a-percent more than those who would vote for the Social Democrats (SPD).

The figures released by the INSA polling institute show the SPD in free fall. Germany's oldest political party has seen its polling figures plummet even further since it garnered just 20.5 percent of the vote in September's federal election, its worst result in the post-war era.

DW political correspondent Thomas Sparrow described the poll as a "bombshell," and part of a larger trend that sees traditional parties losing ground to the anti-immigrant AFD.

"Let's not forget that the AfD entered the German parliament for the first time in September, they became Germany's third most important force political in the parliament and they tap essentially into people's fears," Sparrow told DW television. "We are talking here about immigration, about their suspicions regarding the establishment, the established political parties, that's one of the reasons why they had been able to take some of those voters away from both the Conservatives and the Social Democrats."

Read more: Opinion: Martin Schulz's political gamble has failed

The newspaper Bild described the survey "a bitter blow" for the SPD, while INSA chief Hermann Binkert said the poll showed that "the conservative bloc is currently the only truly mainstream party."

The SPD's year of turmoil January 2017: 'Schulz effect' sees the SPD flying in the polls The SPD appeared to have struck gold when it nominated Martin Schulz, the former president of the European Parliament, to challenge Angela Merkel for chancellor in the 2017 elections. In what came to be dubbed as the "Schulz effect," the SPD's shake-up at the top saw the party surge in the opinion polls to up to 33 percent, neck-and-neck with Merkel's conservatives.

The SPD's year of turmoil May 2017: SPD loses two state elections in a week. First Schleswig-Holstein ... By May, however, the Schulz effect had faded. If the SPD wanted to prove it was a serious contender for September's federal election, it needed to retain its place at the helm of two key state governments. The first state election in Schleswig-Holstein, however, saw the CDU record an "easy" victory, winning by five points. The CDU went on to form a coalition with the Greens and Free Democrats.

The SPD's year of turmoil ... Then its NRW stronghold Things went from bad to worse a week later, when Merkel's party defeated the SPD in their stronghold in North Rhine-Westphalia. The SPD had ruled NRW for 46 of the past 51 years. However, it only picked up 31 percent of the vote this time, seven points lower than in 2012. Schulz described the defeat as "crushing," while outgoing state premier Hannelore Kraft resigned as state SPD party chief.

The SPD's year of turmoil September 2017: Lackluster election debate Come September, with the federal election just weeks away, some pundits still gave Schulz half a chance of clinching the chancellery. However, the televised election debate between the two candidates exposed the effects of a grand coaltion. The two leaders seemed happy to agree with the other's proposals, rather than have a debate. And yet viewers still saw Merkel as the more credible candidate.

The SPD's year of turmoil September 2017: Germany decides — SPD suffers worst result in post-war era In its worst election showing since World War II, the SPD scraped just over 20 percent of the vote. It would claim just 40 seats in the Bundestag, 40 fewer than before. Schulz, however, vowed to stay on and lead the party in opposition. The move was widely welcomed by the party's rank and file. It was time for a much-needed recharge and reappraisal.

The SPD's year of turmoil December 2017: GroKo after all After talks to form a coalition with the Greens and FDP collapsed in November, Merkel had no choice but to turn to Schulz to form a governing coalition. After much "umming" and "ahing," the SPD leadership decided to enter preliminary talks with the conservatives. Well aware that the move would be unpopular with many in the party, Schulz said the party's 460,000 would get the final say.

The SPD's year of turmoil January 2018: SPD balks at grand coalition blueprint However, no sooner had Schulz agreed on a preliminary deal then senior figures in SPD demanded an extensive overhaul. Schulz's failure to prevent a migration cap, establish a "citizens' insurance" scheme and abolish fixed employee contracts raised serious doubts whether party officials would agree to proceed to formal talks.

The SPD's year of turmoil January 2018: The start of a revolt? Ahead of a party conference that would see SPD members vote on the preliminary coalition plan, the movement against another grand coalition began to gather heavy steam. The face of this grassroots revolt was SPD youth wing head Kevin Kühnert. In a series of impassioned speeches, the 28-year-old didn't just win the backing of youngsters, but convinced several senior figures as well.

The SPD's year of turmoil January 2018: Delegates approve preliminary coalition deal Despite the heavy backlash, SPD delegates still approved the coalition deal. Of the votes, 362 were in favor of talks compared with 279 against. In a bid to shore up support, then-party leader Schulz said there would be "tough negotiations" with Merkel's conservatives. But that didn't stop critics from accusing Schulz of making concessions to Merkel.

The SPD's year of turmoil February 2018: SPD takes finance ministry After the announcement of a coalition agreement, media reports claimed that the finance ministry had been given to the SPD, marking what some consider a major victory for the center-left party. The SPD's Olaf Scholz, the popular mayor of Hamburg, was reportedly tapped to head the ministry. If it proves true, it will be the first time in almost nine years that the SPD controls it.

The SPD's year of turmoil February 2018: Spat with Gabriel In early February, tensions inside the SPD reached a fever-pitch. Gabriel told German media that Schulz didn't appreciate the job he had done as foreign minister. Days before, Schulz had signaled his desire to lead the foreign ministry. "The only thing left is remorse over how disrespectful we've become with one another in our dealings and how little someone's word still country," Gabriel said.

The SPD's year of turmoil February 2018: Schulz out, Nahles to take over? Former Labor Minister Andrea Nahles is a strong contender to head the center-left party. She made a name for herself as the leader of the SPD's youth branch. However, her impassioned defense of joining a Merkel-led coalition in January was seen as the key to clinching a majority to move forward on formal talks. But she'll have to wait until April 22, when the SPD will choose its next leader.

The SPD's year of turmoil February 2018: Plummeting poll numbers If anything, the decision to pursue a Merkel-lead coalition has further dragged support for the party. A poll published in February showed the party at 16 percent if elections were held on February 18, a 2-percent drop from the previous poll a month before. Polls now show the SPD neck-and-neck with the far-right AFD.

The SPD's year of turmoil February 2018: Members vote SPD members – all 463,723 of them – will now vote on whether the party can join a coalition with the CDU and CSU. The members have until March 2 to submit their ballots with results expected shortly after the due date. Until then, Germany waits on the prospect of a new government. Author: David Martin, Lewis Sanders IV



The SPD's seen better days

The news will add to the Social Democrats' woes, whose members will begin voting on whether to forge another "grand coalition" with Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives on Tuesday.

However, the SPD leadership's decision to pursue a coalition deal with Merkel has been the catalyst for its fall in support. Many in the SPD — and the party's youth wing in particular — have warned against another coalition, arguing that the party must go into opposition to properly regroup.

According to Sparrow, the fall of the SPD cannot be blamed squarely on the populist forces. The left-leaning party has lost its political "profile" by entering two grand coalitions with Angela Merkel, with the right-leaning chancellor taking away "some of the core elements" of the SPD's identity.

"Let's not forget that Social Democrats – for a very long time – were a natural home of Germany's working class. And, to a certain extent, they lost that idea," Sparrow said.

Read more: Andrea Nahles would take the reins of a troubled SPD

Martin Schulz, who led the party to its worst election result since 1945, stepped down as leader last week. The SPD will hope a change in leadership in the form of Andrea Nahles will give it a much needed boost.

Nahles is expected to be elected to the helm of the SPD at the next party congress on April 22.

Elsewhere, the poll saw Merkel's Christian Democrats strengthen their lead at the top by two points to 32 percent.

The Greens retained a steady 13 percent, the Left Party saw its support fall to 11 percent and the Free Democrats (FDP) fell 1.5 points to 9 percent.

A total of 2040 citizens were interviewed for the survey from 16-19 of February.

Second poll disputes INSA findings

Pollsters from INSA, however, admitted that a poll of this size had to take into account a margin of error of at least 3 percent, placing doubts over the AfD's narrow 0.5 percent lead over the SPD.

Read more: Germany's SPD rank and file seek Labour's 'Corbyn factor'

The Forsa Institute's "Trend Barometer," also published on Monday on behalf of German broadcasters RTIL and n-tv, found that the SPD was still second most popular party in Germany, albeit also with just 16 percent of the voter share.

The AfD, meanwhile, stil laid still a good way behind 13 percent of the vote. Merkel's conservative bloc took 34 percent, while the Greens enjoyed 13 percent, the Left Party 10 percent and the Free Democrats 9 percent.

Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries Shifting responsibilities There are five "classic ministries" in Germany's government – Finance, Foreign, Interior, Justice and Defense. Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) are ceding direct control of two of them. One, finance, is to change from right to left of the political divide, moving from CDU to Social Democrat (SPD) hands. Other switches are likely in less prominent portfolios.

Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries Major prize changes hands The transfer of the Finance Ministry from CDU hands to the SPD is the biggest surprise of the deal. The minister plays a major role at the European level as evidenced by the CDU’s Wolfgang Schäuble during the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Hamburg Mayor Olaf Scholz, a centrist within the SPD, will likely get the title of deputy chancellor in addition to finance minister.

Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries Bavaria to take home ministry The Interior Ministry, which deals with law and order within Germany, looks set to stay in the hands of Merkel’s conservatives, but not her own CDU. Touted for the position is the leader of Bavarian sister party the CSU, Horst Seehofer (left). The Bavarian party has taken a tougher line than Merkel on immigration. The conservatives suffered losses to the far-right AfD in September's election.

Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries Who will be Germany's top diplomat? Under the deal, the SPD will keep control of the Foreign Ministry. Since 1966, the ministry has been run by a member of smaller coalition partners. Sigmar Gabriel has been in the role in a caretaker capacity since Frank-Walter Steinmeier was elected president. Martin Schulz (above), a former leader of the European Parliament, was expected to take over but pulled out in a bid to quell party unrest.

Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries Growing profile of defense The CDU’s Ursula von der Leyen, a key ally of Merkel who is thought to have her own ambitions to become chancellor, is likely to remain in her role at the helm of the Defense Ministry. The ministry has had a growing importance in recent decades as Germany became more involved in foreign military operations. In particular, the Bundeswehr maintains a significant deployment of troops in Afghanistan.

Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries Justice unlikely to change hands Typically a portfolio that goes to the junior coalition partner, responsibility for the Justice Ministry may well stay with the current incumbent — the SPD’s Heiko Maas. While individual states in Germany are generally responsible for the administration of justice, the federal ministry is charged with making and changing constitution-related laws. It also analyzes laws made by other ministries.

Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries Economic compensation Helping to make up for the CDU losing two major offices, the CDU will get its hands on the Economy Ministry, also responsible for energy policy. Merkel's right hand in the chancellery Peter Altmaier (pictured) — who has also been running the Finance Ministry since the departure of Wolfgang Schäuble — is expected to take over from the SPD's Brigitte Zypries.

Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries New girl on the block The favorite to take over at the top of the Ministry of Agriculture is the CDU’s Julia Klöckner, who leads the party in the western state of Rhineland Palatinate. Having twice failed in her bid to become state premier there, she'll be one of the relatively rare new faces in Berlin.

Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries Change of track The CSU will also retain the Transport Ministry with CSU Secretary-General Andreas Scheuer, from Lower Bavaria, taking charge. He’d also be responsible for digital infrastructure. The party will hold onto the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, with undersecretary in the Transport Ministry Dorothee Bär set to take the reins from current Development Minister Gerd Müller.

Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries Health in same party hands The Health Ministry remains a CDU concern, with Annette Widmann-Mauz, an undersecretary in the ministry from Baden Württemberg, expected to take over. She’d replace fellow CDU member Hermann Gröhe, who is touted to head up the Federal Ministry for Education and Research. Author: Richard Connor



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dm/rt (Reuters, dpa, AFP)