Franken has yet to draw a Republican opponent. Franken gets last laugh

Republicans promised to make funnyman Al Franken a one-term senator, but look who’s laughing now.

The Minnesota Democrat looked to be a top GOP pickoff target next year after his agonizing seven-month recount and legal battle put him in the Senate in 2009 by a mere 312 votes.


Yet, in a turnabout few could’ve predicted, Franken has yet to draw a Republican opponent. The GOP looks likely to choose between relatively unknown state legislators, inexperienced businessmen or a conservative radio host with a history of controversial statements.

( PHOTOS: Al Franken’s career)

Franken’s success so far fending off a serious challenger speaks to the broader recruitment challenge Republicans face in 2014. To have a shot at overcoming the Democrats’ 10-seat Senate advantage, the GOP needs to expand the map by putting seats like Franken’s in play. But the party to date has struggled to find top-flight candidates in several states that should, at least on paper, be competitive.

The Udall cousins elected in 2008 — Mark in Colorado and Tom in New Mexico — look safe. And no top-tier GOP candidate has announced yet in Michigan, New Hampshire or Iowa.

Democrats are defending seats in seven red states carried by Mitt Romney last year, but Republicans are highly unlikely to run the table in those places.

Franken, the former “Saturday Night Live” star and liberal talk show host, worked overtime to put himself in this position. Studiously following the Hillary Clinton Senate playbook, Franken has kept his head down, largely avoided national press and focused on populist issues like privacy and consumer protection. He has cultivated a reputation as a serious lawmaker and amassed a formidable war chest.

Also of help: Minnesota — genuinely purple a decade ago — has taken on a more bluish hue. And the state Republican Party is reeling, debt-ridden and seeking to find its way after its Ron Paul-affiliated Senate nominee lost to Sen. Amy Klobuchar by 34 points in November.

Polling released last week pegs Franken’s approval rating just above the 50 percent threshold, key for an incumbent. The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling showed him starting with a double-digit lead over six potential Republican candidates.

“It’s shocking to me that Franken is as safe as he is at this point,” said University of Minnesota political scientist Larry Jacobs.

Republicans hope national atmospherics, specifically the growing unpopularity of Obamacare and the scandals enveloping Obama, will help put Minnesota in play. They believe 2014 will be a bad year for incumbents in general, and that while Franken is no doubt the favorite at the moment, the race is not lost for the GOP.

( PHOTOS: Senators up for election in 2014)

Knowing he would have a tough race, Franken hired a campaign manager early and started fundraising aggressively. He brought in $2 million in the first quarter and has about that much cash on hand.

“My mantra is to be prepared and ready for anything,” said that campaign manager, Matt Burgess, who Franken hired in March.

In 2008, Republicans lit up Franken for lewd jokes he made in his younger years, including a spicy piece he wrote for Playboy Magazine in 2000 called “Porn-O-Rama.” One ad accused him of “tasteless, sexist jokes and writing all that juicy porn.”

Those attacks were a big factor that year in Franken receiving 361,000 fewer votes than Barack Obama in Minnesota. Because it was a three-way race, he prevailed with only 42 percent.

The chairman of Minnesota’s Democratic Party, Ken Martin, said internal polling shows Franken’s standing much improved with women, seniors and registered Democrats.

“Those are all areas where in 2008 he probably underperformed a little bit,” said Martin. “Each day that goes by and you don’t have an opponent in the race is one day closer to reelection. It’ll take a lot of work for someone to mount a credible and serious challenge at this late stage. That’s not to say it won’t happen.”

Former Sen. Norm Coleman, who lost to Franken, announced late last year that he would not challenge him to a rematch. But Coleman stressed in a recent interview that he still believes Franken is beatable. Coleman chalked up the incumbent’s improved standing with Democrats to his liberal voting record and said he has seen polling that shows Franken soft with independents.

“He’s not Amy Klobuchar,” said Coleman.

Coleman, who now chairs the center-right American Action Network super PAC, predicted Franken’s low profile will backfire.

“Keeping your head down is not necessarily a quality that serves Minnesota,” said Coleman. “What have you done other than keeping your head down and not getting in trouble?”

National Republicans argue that Democrats have not yet been able to recruit good candidates in some states they too promised to make competitive. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky does not have an opponent, and no one good has stepped up yet to fill the seats opened by the retirements of Georgia’s Saxby Chambliss, West Virginia’s Jay Rockefeller or South Dakota’s Tim Johnson.

But Democrats have more room for error next year than the GOP.

A Republican strategist with experience in Minnesota said “I would have told you that you were crazy” if someone said in 2009 that a strong candidate had yet to declare against Franken by May 2013.

“Franken followed the Hillary Clinton playbook of going into the Senate, realizing he might be his own worst enemy and basically hiding in his first term,” said the operative. “I give him credit because I didn’t think he could do it.”

The newly-elected chairman of the Minnesota GOP, Keith Downey, said he expects multiple quality candidates to seek the Senate nomination. He said some plan to get into the race after the legislature adjourns in May.

Among the potential Republican candidates are wealthy businessman Mike McFadden, who has been publicly mum but looking for campaign office space. Radio host Jason Lewis has also expressed interest, but many Republicans and Democrats don’t see him as viable in a general election.

Rep. Michele Bachmann has not formally ruled out running statewide, but insiders believe it’s highly unlikely she will. Rep. Erik Paulsen (R) formally announced earlier this month that he would stay in the House, despite months of publicly flirting with a Senate bid.

Franken’s aggressive fundraising might well be scaring off some potential opponents.

“It takes so much money to run against him,” said a Minnesota Republican strategist with statewide experience. “You have to think Franken’s going to hit $20 million, so you need realistically to raise $10 million or $12 million.”

Another factor: Gov. Mark Dayton looks much more vulnerable than Franken, so the more serious Republicans have their eyes on challenging him. With unified control of state government, Democrats have pushed a liberal agenda to raise taxes and legalize gay marriage that the GOP hopes will backfire.

Democrats are determined to not get caught off guard, and they are trying to make the most of the head start. In 2010, Republicans took control of both chambers in the state legislature and Democratic Rep. Jim Oberstar, who had been in the House since 1975, lost in a stunning upset.

Rep. Betty McCollum (D-Minn.) publicly expressed concern about Franken’s candidacy in 2008 and endorsed an early primary challenger. Now she’s fully supportive and confident about Franken’s chances. Still, she worries about a conservative super PAC pouring in millions of dollars or Democrats who voted in 2012 staying home.

“In the Iron Range, we had thousands and thousands of people who stayed home and Jim Oberstar lost,” she said. “We are not taking his reelection for granted.”

Democrats also expect Republicans to rehash the attacks of 2008 on Franken, but they feel like anything from his pre-political career won’t get traction.

Jeff Blodgett, who ran the late Paul Wellstone’s Senate campaigns and the Obama campaigns in 2008 and 2012, said Franken has proven to be a work horse – not a show horse.

“When he was running in 2008, he was a known entity from previous lives, for better or for worse,” said Blodgett. “People have been really pleasantly surprised by his relentless focus on Minnesota and the people of Minnesota.”