THE TORIES

The government payroll, 117

Under collective responsibility every government minister will be compelled to vote for the plan regardless of their own views. As the vote gets closer it is inevitable therefore that more ministers will choose to resign in order to vote against.



Government loyalists, 70-85

Any new ministers appointed would clearly have to come from this camp, who the Tory whips are confident will do the prime minister’s bidding.



Swing Tory Brexiteers, 30-60

The number of backbench Brexiteers who could vote against the deal could be higher. Tory whips will need to win over all of the potential swing Brexiteers if they are to have even the remotest chance of getting the deal through.



Tory Brexiteer ultras, 20-50

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