Coach Joe Schmidt

Pool A

World rank 1

Previous best Quarter-final

There are two statistics that feel relevant to Ireland’s chances in Japan. Ireland have moved to the top of the world rankings for the first time in history with victory over Wales in Dublin in their final warm-up match and only once, in 2007, has the World Cup been won by a side not occupying the No1 spot. Ireland, though, have never won a knockout match in the tournament’s history.

Whichever of those you prefer to focus on says a lot about the optimism with which you view Ireland’s coming campaign. Ireland are indeed ranked the No1 side in the world thanks to back-to-back victories over Wales but before that their World Cup hopes had been seemingly shredded by their record defeat by England at Twickenham.

The irony is that after Ireland’s seismic win over the All Blacks last November, when Steve Hansen said of Joe Schmidt’s side, “as of now they are the No1 team in the world, that can bring about pressure if you’re not used to dealing with it,”, New Zealand were still occupying top spot in the rankings. Now it is Ireland who do so, but it is equally hard to ignore that Hansen had a point because until the second half against Wales in Dublin, Ireland had come nowhere near to reproducing their 2018 form this year.

There were two emphatic defeats by England, one by Wales and if the most recent of those at Twickenham must be put in the context of a World Cup warm-up match, the final score – 57-15 – certainly stung. The question, then, was how had Ireland reached such a position so soon after their annus mirabilis. Certainly the nature of February’s loss to England, the way in which they were bullied by Eddie Jones’s side knocked the stuffing out of them because, to be in Dublin in the days leading up to that match was to witness a level of hometown hubris rarely seen.

The more recent thumping by England was described by Schmidt as “unacceptable” but many observers went further, questioning Rory Best’s captaincy and even the head coach’s suitability to a role he took over six years ago when Ireland were eighth in the world rankings. The first victory over Wales was non-negotiable in the sense that Ireland simply could not afford to lose to what was a callow side named by Warren Gatland but finally, in what was Schmidt’s last match at Lansdowne Road before he steps down after the World Cup, they found some form again.

Devin Toner’s axing for Jean Kleyn was widely criticised but it was a ruthless move from Schmidt however you feel about project players, Schmidt has largely succeeded in increasing Ireland’s depth – a lack of which was identified as costly four years ago when the squad looked so threadbare in their quarter-final defeat by Argentina. Still so much rests on the shoulders of Conor Murray and Sexton. The latter’s fitness has been an issue over the summer – when is it not? – but, for all that they have stumbled since overcoming New Zealand you get the sense that Ireland are going to take some beating in Japan.

Their opening match against Scotland is unlikely to be pretty, but it is hard not to see them topping Pool A. Standing between them and a first ever semi-final will then be either the All Blacks or South Africa – a different proposition altogether.