Nobody seems to know: should we believe them, or not? Should we take authoritarians literally, but not seriously — or vice versa? But if we can’t get the answer right, this state of affairs will only get worse.

So: having had the displeasure of living under an authoritarian regime or two, let me share how to listen to them without losing your mind.

Authoritarians tell the truth about the future. They speak openly about what they are going to do. When they say things that seem absurd — we’ll build walls, ban those people, and so on — believe them.

Authoritarians lie about the past. They lie about the consequences of what they have done. They lie about the magnitude and scale of their achievements. No failure can be allowed. Everything is a success! Number one!! The best! Think North Korea.

Why this this strategy, this game? Remember Orwell’s “memory hole”? The “constant re-writing of history”? The idea that he who controlled the past controlled the future?

That’s why. It’s true. He who controls the past does control the future. He is the most powerful person in any relationship — and that is all a society is, a set of relationships. That is why authoritarians lie about the past, but tell the truth about the future.

If you remember nothing else from this series of essays, remember that principle. I’ll just cheesily call it the Power Principle for short.

Now let us prove it.

Imagine yourself in any position of authority. If you could say that you were going to do anything — and then rewrite it to be successful, noble, glorious, wonderful, not matter how much of an abject failure it really was, so that people believed you were smashing, awesome, amazing, the best — then you would have maximum power. If you don’t see it yet, reread that sentence and reflect.

Telling the truth about the future and lying about the past is a negotiating strategy that maximizes one’s power in the present. If — and it’s a big if — you can make people believe both. You can apply it to anything. Even your relationships. “Honey, I’m going to take you on the best vacation ever. So great. So amazing”. You take them to the nearest Motel 6 and buy them a case of Budweiser. “Remember that amazing vacation we took?”. They nod and smile, brainwashed, hypnotized. See the point? If you can do that, and get your partner to believe it, then you get away with anything.

It’s the same technique mafiosi use. “We’re friends, aren’t we? I’ve always taken care of you, haven’t I? Now where’s my money?”. And thus the shakedown happens.

In fact, it’s the same technique every abuser uses. “I did it because I love you. If you don’t obey me, I’ll hurt you. But only because you’ll have made me”. Telling the truth about the future — lying about the past. It is how to abuse people, writ large. No: don’t use it against people, or you’ll never amount to much in this life, except being driven crazy with rage and power.

Now. We are not done yet.

This negotiating strategy is a head-spinning mindfuck for media, journalists, pundits, even intellectuals. Why? Because they are trained to believe in just the opposite. They are trained to expect people in power to lie about the future, and tell the truth about the past. That is what ordinary politicians do, isn’t it? They know that they cannot get away with abject lies about, for example, public voting records. But maybe they can get away with a lie here and there about how they will vote tomorrow.

Now let’s say you are a pundit. You are expecting a leader to lie about the future, and tell the truth about the past. Here comes an authoritarian. He offers up a grand proclamation: “I will build a Great Wall!”, for example. What do you say? Well, you are used to the strategy of politicians, everyday leaders. So you say: “there is no way he will build a wall! Take him seriously — not literally”. But you will be wrong, over and over and over again, forever.

Now let’s take it further. You’re a pundit. And the authoritarian says: “My crowds are the biggest crowds!”. How do you respond? You’re probably genuinely baffled. Why is the authoritarian lying about the past, not the future? Lies about the past are easily disproven. But you do not understand the game he is playing. Unless such lies are proven to be lies, over and over again, the authoritarian coasts on your first mistake: being wrong about him telling the truth about the future. Who will trust you, when you are wrong time and time again? That is how the Power Principle works.

Thus, by not understanding the strategy authoritarians employ, they can barely be held accountable at all by media, civil society, academia — who are often left utterly mindfucked by the perversion of truth at the heart of the Power Principle.

Does that make sense? See it clearly.

Let’s sum it up.

Authoritarians invert the negotiating strategy that civil society expects from people in power. Instead of telling the truth about the past, and lying about the future, authoritarians do the opposite. That is the fundamental source of their power.

They turn leadership as we know it on its head. And that is why it mindfucks people so much — and why it mindfucks the most educated and well meaning people the most, because, being reasonable people, they expect yesterday’s strategy, the approach of ordinary leaders. That is why we have this raging debate today: should we believe them? But wait — they’re lying! Or are they telling the truth? Which is it?!

Both. It is the pattern of truth and lies that is the opposite of what we have come to expect, reasonable and decent and civilized people that we are. That is why the Power Principle confuses us so. We do not expect mafia tactics from our leaders. But that is where we are.

And so. All that we have to do, to unpick that fragile thing called the truth, which is the beating heart of freedom, is not to let it confuse us so.

Umair

January 2017