Saturday is Valentine’s Day. But you know what else it is? ROAD TRIP DAY for the Triangle-area teams. And what else would you do on a day that’s supposed to be about love and commercialism besides watch ACC basketball? NC State needs a big-time road win badly, and at a top-10 Louisville team would certainly qualify. North Carolina and Duke both need to keep pace with that top-5 in order to avoid being left out of the top four, and both have games that could be tricky. But that’s burying the lead, considering we finally get to see Virginia Tech and Clemson face off, just like we’ve been aching for all season.

NO. 12 NORTH CAROLINA (18-6, 8-3) AT PITTSBURGH (16-9, 5-6)

Time: 12:00 p.m.

TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

So…North Carolina. About the fouling thing. You’re going to need to stop that. In six of 11 ACC games so far, opponents have scored at least 20 percent of their points from the line. That’s not an absurd number, but only five teams in the ACC allow a higher percentage (20.3 percent in league play). And that’s just not something North Carolina does, traditionally (more on that in the tempo-free section!). Foul trouble has led to UNC having to use more zone than they would like, which has led to not as good defense – and has led to free points for the opponent, and their best players being on the bench. That can’t happen. And one thing Pitt does well is get to the line. In ACC play, the Panthers score 21.3 percent of their points from the foul line, second-most in the league. Pitt has three of the top players in ACC games only in free-throw rate with Michael Young at 9, Jamel Artis at 19 and James Robinson at 20. So, hey, UNC. Stop it if you want to win this game.

PTP-ERS

Isaiah Hicks. The sophomore forward played quite well in relief of Kennedy Meeks (coaches’ decision) at Boston College, finishing with 21 points on 7-of-10 shooting (7-of-11 from the foul line; getting to the line is something North Carolina needs to do) to go with five rebounds. Only issues were that in his 28 minutes, he picked up four fouls and turned it over four times. But hey, he’s scoring, and getting more comfortable. North Carolina is going to have a (no pun intended) big size advantage over Pitt; if he plays well again, it will exploit that even more. But stop fouling, young fella – he leads UNC in fouls per 40 minutes with 7.4.

James Robinson. Pitt doesn’t really need its junior point guard to be a scorer, and he hasn’t been, really. But he’s been in double digits in two of Pitt’s last three ACC games, and those were both wins, so that’s something, right? He averaged 14 points in those two games on 9-of-19 shooting an had 14 assists to two turnovers. But he had just four in a near-loss to Bryant and five in a loss at Louisville. If Nate Britt gets in early foul trouble, though, watch out. Last year against North Carolina in the ACC Tournament, he had 19 points on 5-of-7 shooting and added six rebounds, three assists and four steals.

TEMPO-FREE

Pitt snapped a streak of nine straight games with an OE over 100 in the loss to Louisville (an 87.8, its second-lowest in ACC play behind an 87.7 in its ACC opener at NC State). … From 2005-2013 – nine seasons – Carolina allowed a free-throw rate of 39 or higher in 48 games and was 27-21 in those games (238-47 in all other games). The Tar Heels allowed 50 or higher just 17 times in those nine seasons and 60 or higher just three times. In the last not-quite-two-seasons alone, they’ve allowed a free-throw rate of 39 or higher in 31 games (they’re 19-12 in those games, 23-6 in all others), 50 or higher 14 times, and 60 or higher six times – twice the total amount they’d allowed in the previous nine seasons combined.

NARRATIVES

North Carolina Win: Hey, we’ll all get invested again and then if you lose at Duke we’ll pretend we were kidding around.

North Carolina Loss: There’s that word again.

Pittsburgh Win: Here’s my Valentine’s Day card to you, Pitt.

Pittsburgh Loss: Oh well. Pitt fans are used to this.

PREDICTION

North Carolina, 82-78. This feels like a dangerous one for the Tar Heels. Maybe the rest did them some good.

NC STATE (14-10, 5-6) AT NO. 9 LOUISVILLE (19-4, 7-3)

Time: 4:00 p.m.

TV: ESPN

#ANALYSIS

This is exactly the kind of win that NC State needs if it wants to get back into the NCAA Tournament conversation. But if it’s going to win it, it’s going to have to do something it hasn’t shown it can do all year against teams that do this almost exclusively – break pressure. Louisville is going to press, and probably press a lot, especially if they watched the West Virginia tape (even though that was awhile ago). NC State can’t let Louisville speed them up against their will (transition buckets are, of course, fine – even encouraged!). NC State needs to run its sets, get good looks and be disciplined. That’s something that didn't always happen against Virginia but hey, welcome to the club, Wolfpack. And certainly NC State can’t replicate the kind of defensive effort it had against Clemson and Wake Forest. But since when does the Wolfpack not play up and down to its competition?

PTP-ERS

Ralston Turner. The senior guard is clearly dealing with some sort of a lingering physical issue that’s affected his play. One thing that affected him against Virginia on Wednesday was chasing around Malcolm Brogdon. For his sake, one would have to think he’ll be put on Wayne Blackshear instead of Terry Rozier in this game. But any way you slice it, he’s 6-of-28 from there in the last four games and 11-of-43 overall, and he’s clearly not himself. He’s going to need to knock down shots in this one.

Montrezl Harrell. After a brief period of meh – again, by his standards, of course – where he scored a total of 36 points in four ACC games (of which Louisville lost two), he’s back. And by back, I mean he’s averaging 18.3 points and 9.0 rebounds in the last six games on nearly 61 percent shooting. NC State has an interior defense that’s shown itself to be at least somewhat stout at times. The Wolfpack is going to have to have a group effort to limit Harrell offensively and on the boards, but it’s easier said than done to tame that insatiable force.

TEMPO-FREE

After a bit of a deep in its defense – by its own standards, anyway – where five straight opponents had an OE of 100 or better, Louisville has now held four straight ACC opponents (including two top-15 offenses) to below 100 in OE, including Pitt’s 87.8 on Wednesday, the worst by a Louisville opponent since January 7 (Clemson). … NC State held Virginia to its third-worst OE of the year (91.2) and still lost; it was the lowest OE by an NC State opponent in an NC State loss this year and the lowest since NC State lost at Maryland in 2013 with the Terps posting a 78.8 OE.

NARRATIVES

NC State Win: So…are we doing this again? BECAUSE I CAN’T TAKE ANY MORE OF THIS PAIN NC STATE AND IF I CAN’T THINK OF HOW YOUR FANS FEEL

NC State Loss: I believe this is the NC State stuff you all always refer to in a GIF.

Louisville Win: Oh hello again Louisville that’s right we forgot how attractive you can be sometimes

Louisville Loss: Sometimes, Louisville, it seems like it’s all setting up perfectly for you to win the ACC and then the ACC is just not that into you

PREDICTION

Louisville, 73-62. Because I’m too cowardly to pull the trigger and pick NC State. Even though I want to.

NO. 4 DUKE (21-3, 8-3 ACC) AT SYRACUSE (16-8, 7-4)

Time: 6:15 p.m.

TV: ESPN

#ANALYSIS

Syracuse might not have anything left to play for this season – and that is literally a fact – but they will surely be hyped for the biggest rivalry in collegiate sports. That’s right, Syracuse-Duke renews for our eager eyes, and as we all know based on this long, storied history between the two schools, anything can happen when they get together. Okay so in all seriousness, to me, this comes down to how well Duke can run its offense against this Syracuse zone, which will be unlike any zone Duke has seen this year, obviously. Syracuse forces a lot of turnovers with their length and teams have had to score over a third of all their points from three against it. And so if Duke is cold and having trouble taking care of the ball – they’re 7th in offensive TO percentage in ACC games – they’re going to struggle. Syracuse will have to hit shots too, of course, because that’s how that works. But if Duke keeps Syracuse in it, maybe they’ll be sparked enough by their home crowd and the emotions of such a high-intensity game that they’ll conjure up something.

PTP-ERS

Quinn Cook. This game meets all the benchmarks of a Quinn Cook-type of game – an unranked opponent, on the road. But it’s still a big game, what with it being a rivalry game and all, so maybe the youngsters show up. But whether it’s at St. John’s, Georgia Tech at home or at Florida State, it’s been Cook that’s carried the team against meh competition, averaging 20 points in the three games and generally being a steady floor general. He’s been the constant. He’s also averaged 18.3 points in Duke’s last four road games against non-top 25 teams. This would certainly qualify.

Rakeem Christmas. As we’ve learned, while Jahlil Okafor is certainly capable of protecting the rim, he’s not exactly a defensive stalwart. And that’s perfectly fine, by the way. But Christmas is going to get his, more often than not – except against Boston College, oddly, when he had a season-low seven points (in spite of playing all 40 minutes) on 3-of-8 shooting. He did have 10 rebounds, and he’s averaging a ridiculous 11.8 boards in the last four games (not to mention 3.8 blocks). He's going to need to have a big-time game in this one, but Syracuse also can’t forget him either.

TEMPO-FREE

Ah yes, remember when this rivalry was born? It was a lovely day in Syracuse, New York (I guess) when Duke posted an OE of 131.6 and Syracuse countered with a 134.5 in a beautiful played basketball game that went to overtime on the eve of Super Bowl Sunday and was very exciting. Then back in Durham, Duke’s OE dropped to 109.4 and Syracuse’s dropped to 99.6 (its eFG percentage went from 60.2 percent to 40.3 percent), and we all still pretended it was really good and that we loved it because Jim Boeheim ripped his jacket off but really it didn’t feel the same. We’re still chasing that feeling, all of us, and maybe we’ll find it again. I know I still feel it when I look into your eyes, Duke and Syracuse. Do you?

NARRATIVES

Duke Win: Duke’s zone offense in GIF form:

Duke Loss: The beautiful ones always smash the picture.

Syracuse Win: Don’t we all?

Syracuse Loss: No we wanted to stay home from the postseason anyways and we didn’t care about this stupid game

PREDICTION

Duke, 77-69. You remember last time when I said Duke would buck the trend of underperforming against average ACC teams and then Duke only won at FSU by three? Well, I MEAN it this time.

VIRGINIA TECH (10-14, 2-9) AT CLEMSON (14-10, 6-6)

Time: 12:00 p.m.

TV: RSN

#ANALYSIS

This game should have a parental advisory warning on it. Disgusting doesn’t even begin to describe what this is bound to look like aesthetically. It’s either going to be one-sided ugly or just ugly for both teams, and either way it won’t be all that watchable. It’s pretty simple on Clemson’s end – guard the three. That’s almost all Virginia Tech does well, besides play scrappy Buzzketball with a lot of heart and sweat. The Hokies score 40.1 percent of their points from three. And Clemson, for awhile against a bad Notre Dame defense, you were offense-ing quite nicely. And then you stopped. So maybe….start again? Virginia Tech’s defense is 12th in ACC games only. Just a suggestion.

PTP-ERS

Devin Wilson. By Virginia Tech standards, he is a veteran as a sophomore point guard. And yet he’s seen his minutes go down a bit at times as freshman Malik Mueller has come on at the point guard spot. Wilson was playing at least 30 minutes in ACC play (in all but one of their first eight league games) and his high in minutes in the last three is 28. He’s 2-of-7 shooting from the field in that time and has been to the foul line just once, which is very low for him. He also has nine assists to five turnovers in that span. In other words, he’s been…less than visible.

Jaron Blossomgame. Some of Clemson’s older players have stepped up as of late, at least in part leading to Clemson’s resurgence. Blossomgame had been pretty steady, but hadn’t had a huge game. He did against Notre Dame in a loss, finishing with 17 points on 7-of-13 shooting to go with 14 rebounds, two assists, three steals and a block. He’s shown flashes throughout his entire career of what he can do, but playing against a Virginia Tech team without a real front line, he should be able to put good performances together for once.

TEMPO-FREE

I’d like you to take note of this, Clemson and Brad Brownell. You are 14th in the league and in the 300’s nationally in average tempo. But your team is 9-3 this year when getting 64 or more possessions and 5-7 when it plays slower than that. It’s math. … In the win over Georgia Tech on Monday, Virginia Tech had an eFG percentage of 57.3 percent, its highest mark since it shot 60.7 percent on Dec. 27 against Presbyterian.

NARRATIVES

Virginia Tech Win: No idea why…but we’re all falling hard for you, Hokies.

Virginia Tech Loss: We know, Virginia Tech. We know.

Clemson Win: Wait…so were you the sixth NCAA Tournament team all along, and we just didn’t see?

Clemson Loss: Sorry, Clemson. We’re breaking up with you.

PREDICTION

Clemson, 64-57. Because why not.

FLORIDA STATE (13-12, 5-7) AT GEORGIA TECH (11-13, 2-10)

Time: 2:30 p.m.

TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

This is going to be an intriguing matchup, as it’s a battle of two teams that can’t get out of their own way at times (both very turnover-prone, too). Georgia Tech has sneakily become one of the better defensive teams in the league, while FSU’s offense has turned the corner and is steadily improving, too. So the question will be which team can control the boards (FSU has been very good on the offensive glass in league play, while Georgia Tech doesn’t give up much and crashes on that end, too) and which team can get the other into foul trouble and get to the line. FSU scores a good deal of its points from the line, but Georgia Tech hasn’t been quite as foul-prone in league play and has some guys that can attack the basket. FSU has given up a free-throw rate of 44.2 or higher (which is certainly high) in three straight games now; if they’re getting to the charity stripe but giving up trips to the opponent, that’s just going to cancel itself out.

PTP-ERS

Phil Cofer. Because….this...

Aside from that ridiculous dunk, Cofer played well against Duke too, finishing with nine points (just his third double-figure game in ACC play), four rebounds, and a steal in 21 minutes. Cofer clearly has a ton of potential and is only going to get better, but it will be interesting to see how he matches up against Georgia Tech’s wide bodies down low.

Charles Mitchell. Demarcus Cox had been developing into the man down low for the Yellow Jackets, but Mitchell came back to form against Virginia Tech, finishing with 17 points on 7-of-10 shooting to go with eight rebounds, an assist and just two fouls. And he hasn’t turned it over in two games! This game is going to be Georgia Tech’s brute strength down low against FSU’s length and athleticism; Mitchell is going to have to use his size and strength.

TEMPO-FREE

There’s a theory out there from Tomahawk Nation’s Michael Rogner that FSU plays better when it turns it over more. Laugh if you want, but FSU is 10-6 this year when it turns the ball over on 19 percent or more of its possessions (only one of the losses was a blowout) and is 3-6 when it turns the ball over less often than that (three of the losses were by nine or more points, and one was to Northeastern). Just saying. … Yes, Georgia Tech lost yet another close game. But they were also held to a 98.4 OE – their lowest since Jan. 22 – by one of the worst defensive teams in basketball, shooting an eFG percentage of 41 percent (their lowest since that UVa game) and turning it over on over 20 percent of their possessions.

NARRATIVES

Florida State Win: Well that was so messy but also so adorable

Florida State Loss: The real question is where did all the fans frm the Duke game go

Georgia Tech Win: Good for you.

Georgia Tech Loss: At this point, you’d have to be.

PREDICTION

Georgia Tech, 70-65. That’s right. I picked Georgia Tech to win a CLOSE GAME, going against all analytics to the contrary. Come at me, Charles Barkley.

WAKE FOREST (12-13, 4-8) AT NO. 2 VIRGINIA (22-1, 10-1)

Time: 2:30 p.m.

TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

Hey Wake, you’re still searching for your first road win and here’s a cha- oh. Wait. Sorry. You’re at Virginia. But hey! Weirder things have happened. And those weirder things include Wake hitting 12-of-23 three-pointers. In Wake’s first five ACC home games this year, the Deacs hit just 26-of-96 three-pointers (27.1 percent). But in the last two, they’ve hit 22-of-43 (51.2 percent). Well, OK then. Wake still hasn’t really hit on the road in ACC play – 35-of-114 (30.7 percent) – but they’d better hope the 3’s fall in Charlottesville, because that’s basically the only hope they’ve got. Oh, and to take care of the basketball. If they don’t hit, Virginia can treat this as yet another game to adjust to life without Justin Anderson.

PTP-ERS

Konstantinos Mitoglou. The Greek Deac is on fire lately. Like a delicious gyro. I kid. But he’s hit 15-of-34 three’s in the last four games and was a blistering 6-of-7 in the win over Miami (so I guess if you Bzdelik his 3’s away, his teammates were 6-of-16 and that’s not all that absurd!). If Wake has any hope in this game, he’s got to be hot. That’s what happened in the overtime loss at Syracuse (he was 4-of-7 and had a career-high 26). Oh, and he’s even been rebounding well! He’s averaging 7.0 boards in the last two.

Devon Hall. The 6-5 freshman saw 12 minutes – his most since Dec. 21 – against NC State, and his 152 ORtg was a career-best. He was 2-of-3 from the field and added an assist in those 12 minutes, and honestly, that’s what Virginia needs out of whoever plays in relief of Anderson - a capable defender, a willing shooter (if he has to, not talking to you, Marial Shayok) and a guy who can make plays. Hall played well and if he keeps it up, could continue to provide relief to the ‘Hoos until Anderson returns.

TEMPO-FREE

NC State had an 84.0 OE against Virginia, its worst of the season, making the first time Virginia has held an opponent to a season-worst OE since Jan. 22. … Virginia has now broken 100 in OE on offense just twice in its last five games – against Duke and North Carolina. … Ken Pom gives Wake an 11 percent chance or less to win four of its final six games, and this one has the slimmest odds at just 3 percent… The only reason Wake’s game against Miami was remotely close was that it turned the ball over on 21.8 percent of its possessions. Oddly enough, though, two of Wake’s four ACC wins have been when they’ve had their highest turnover percentages in ACC play.

NARRATIVES

Wake Forest Win: I keep seeing you out of the corner of my eye, Wake, and I’m like nah but then I look over and suddenly I see you

Wake Forest Loss: Oh another road loss. At least this one was to a good team. And?

Virginia Win: This is for you, Cammy, the UVa danceoff should-have-been winner. Because I love you. And I don’t care who knows it.

Virginia Loss: No Justin Anderson, and now THIS?!

PREDICTION

Virginia, 74-57. Sorry, Wake. Not this time.

SUNDAY

MIAMI (15-9, 5-6) AT BOSTON COLLEGE (9-14, 1-10)

Time: 6:30 p.m.

TV: ESPNU

#ANALYSIS

Ah yes, it’s Boston College, the slump buster of the ACC. If you’re going to get off the schneid, Miami, now’s the time. Miami has lost four of five now and hasn’t looked good since…well, Jan. 13, if we’re being honest (at Duke). Boston College is…plucky? But not good. Still, Miami now has two losses to teams ranked 114th or worse in Ken Pom in its last four games – both close, but still – so who knows? Pretty simple for Miami: make shots. Rinse. Repeat.

PTP-ERS

Angel Rodriguez. So, he might’ve woken up on Wednesday night at Wake Forest, scoring 15 points (his most since - that’s right - Duke) on 3-of-8 shooting (8-of-10 from the foul line), and most of that scoring came late when Miami mounted a furious comeback that fell just short. So maybe he’s alive again. And if he is, Miami will have enough to make a late push here. If not, welp.

Garland Owens. Maybe the sophomore wing has been….freed? His 19 minutes in the loss to Syracuse were tied for his most since January 6, and he turned those into just two points but didn’t try to do too much and had a rebound and a steal as well. And he made his only shot attempt. In the last four games, he’s 6-of-10 shooting and has six rebounds, two assists and a steal. So maybe he’ll keep getting playing time.

TEMPO-FREE

Boston College has now allowed three straight opponents to shoot an eFG percentage of 50 percent or higher. Miami, as poorly as it has been playing, has had an eFG percentage of 50 percent or higher in two straight games and three of the last four. … The problem has been that the Hurricanes have turned the ball over on 18 percent of their possessions or more in four of their last five games. As bad as Boston College’s defense has been, in the last two games, the Eagles’ opponents have turned it over on at least 20 percent of their possessions.

NARRATIVES

Miami Win: Look we might start getting a little clingy because you’re our best bet at a sixth NCAA Tournament team probably but you know what we just love you so much or we want to anyway

Miami Loss: You broke my heart, Miami. You’ve broken ALL of our hearts.

Boston College Win: Not very often over the last few years that Boston College fans can say this about their team

Boston College Loss: I mean, Boston College fans are used to this by now after the last few years.

PREDICTION

Miami, 61-54. Gross.

Last week: 7-7 (7-7 ACC)

Overall: 54-25 (53-25 ACC)