The official tale of the tape stretches out like this:

The real tale of the tape goes like this:

It took just one tweet to get me thinking about the UFC on Fox 23 matchup between Francis Ngannou and Andrei Arlovski.[tweet url="https://twitter.com/KenTheGreat1/status/821526350167044096" hide_media="0" hide_thread="1"]That one. That's the tweet. Thanks, McKinley.The two UFC heavyweights throw down Saturday, Jan. 28, in Denver, and at first glance, it's a classic matchup. It's not classic in the "once in human history" sense but rather in the "Oh, I see what the UFC's doing here--this looks familiar" sense.30 years old, 9-1 (4-0 with four stoppages in the UFC), 6'4", 255 pounds, 83-inch reach37 years old, 25-13, one no-contest (14-7 in the UFC, former UFC heavyweight champion), 6'3", 245 pounds, 77-inch reachThe numbers pale to the narrative, though.Young French wrecking machine with an eight pack. Likely unbeatable.Old. Done. Stepping stone.That's what they'll have you believe. At 30 years old, Ngannou sticks out in the UFC heavyweight division (and not just because he looks like he's genetically engineered to induce nightmares). The top 15 fighters in the heavyweight fold (plus UFC champion Stipe Miocic) average 33 years old.Only Luis Henrique, who recently entered the rankings on the strength of back-to-back finishes, is what most people would call "young." He's 23. Ngannou starched him in December 2015. Only two others--Stefan Struve (how?) and Alexander Volkov--come in under 30. They're both 28.Other than that? The division is old. The champ is 34. Numbers one through three--Fabricio Werdum, Cain Velasquez, and Alistair Overeem--are 39, 34, and 36, respectively. Arlovski's 37, and Mark Hunt, ranked number six, is 42.It makes sense, then, that we'd all sit back and focus on this rising phenom, a finishing machine with flat-out scary instincts and promise for days. Maybe he's the future of the division. He just might be the guy we soon look at and say, "OK, who can possibly beat this dude?"Thing is, Arlovski's right here, y'all. He can hear you. Sure, he's 37. He's been finished in three straight contests. That's accurate. But when you dig deeper, Arlovski has plenty to offer.Training with arguably the greatest team in the sport, Jackson-Wink MMA, Arlovski will show up on fight night. He's done this many, many times before, and he's excelled at the highest level.He's grappled Frank Mir and Josh Barnett, he's traded shots with Pedro Rizzo, and he ate a bomb from a then-still-mystical Fedor Emelianenko. He's been locked in the cage with the current UFC champion (he lost) and the champ before him (he won).There's little Ngannou can do to bamboozle the Belarusian.Arlovski also trains at altitude, roughly 5,300 feet above sea level in beautiful Albuquerque, New Mexico. Denver, the famous Mile-High City, is--ahem--virtually identical in that regard. (Note: There are 5,280 feet in a mile if you didn't know. Read a book.)With Ngannou's thick, muscular frame and his propensity for quick finishes (he's never fought past the 10-minute mark in any bout), the thin air might just be a problem should Arlovski drag it into the second round and beyond.For Arlovski, this is a winnable fight, moreso than most care to acknowledge at the present. Should he falter, however...that's where things get scary (and sad). Four straight losses and, potentially, four straight finishes look bad on any resume, but Arlovski's already been knocked out nine times. He's taken significant damage throughout his career, and another clean strike from Ngannou could seal the coffin on his career.It's a must win not to prove he can still hang with the division's best but a must win to prove he can still hang at all.That makes it a dangerous fight for Ngannou, too, but it also makes it a fight that, should he win, the Frenchman can leverage into a massive opportunity moving forward. Just like Yair Rodriguez vs. BJ Penn at the recently completed UFC Phoenix event, this fight with Arlovski is Ngannou's grand chance to prove himself better than just "promising." This is his shot at "legitimate."In a funny way, that means somebody's career as we know it is about to skid off the road and crash wildly. Either Arlovski or Ngannou will stumble mightily Jan. 28. There's no "Ahh, you'll get it next time, champ" here. One guy will be outed as "not ready" by the time the book is closed at UFC on Fox 23.And that makes it a fight worth watching.