General Election 2019: Tactical voting in just 36 seats will deny Boris Johnson a majority, latest polls show Poll for anti-Brexit campaign group suggests 40,000 votes could swing Thursday’s election

The election could be decided in just 36 seats where tactical voting could prevent Boris Johnson securing a majority, new polling analysis has revealed.

Just 40,704 voters out of 30 million expected to take part in Thursday’s election have the power to deliver a hung parliament, the research shows.

The data is based on an MRP poll, one of the most accurate seat-by-seat measurements of voting intention, conducted by Focaldata on behalf of Best for Britain, the group campaigning for a second referendum.

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The poll also shows the election race is narrowing, even if tactical voting does not take place on a widespread scale. An MRP poll for Best for Britain last month suggested a majority of 82 without the effects of tactical voting, but the latest survey, based on a sample of 28,272, indicates this figure has more than halved to 40.

Left hunting for support

With mass tactical voting taken into account, the Conservatives would be denied 36 ultra-marginal seats they are either predicted to hold or gain. Under this scenario, Mr Johnson would have 309 MPs, Labour 255, SNP 49, Liberal Democrats 14, Plaid three and the Greens one. The poll was not conducted in Northern Ireland.

The result would leave Mr Johnson hunting for support in a confidence and supply arrangement from the DUP – something that is not guaranteed given the Northern Irish party has expressed its concern over the Prime Minister’s redrafted Brexit deal.

The tactical voting poll shows that in each of those 36 marginal seats, 2,500 votes or fewer would swing the election.

In Dewsbury, it would take just 82 former Liberal Democrat and Green voters to back Labour and prevent the Conservatives taking it from incumbent Paula Sherriff. An average of just 1,131 tactical votes would make the difference in each ultra-marginal seat. In West Bromwich West, it would take 183 anti-Brexit voters to switch to Labour to stop the Tories taking the seat.

‘On a knife edge’

In total there are 73 seats where it would take just 5,000 votes or fewer to stop a Tory majority.

Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, said: “The Tories will be quaking in their boots today. Just a fortnight ago Boris Johnson was on course to win a landslide, but weeks of telling lies and ducking interviews have caught up with him.

“Now he faces the very real possibility of remainers in just 36 marginals seats using tactical voting to cannibalise what’s left of his expected majority.

“This election is on a knife edge, and if enough remainers hold their nose and vote for the candidate with the best chance of stopping the Tories in their seat we’re heading for a hung parliament and a final say referendum.”