Show caption A crew shortage may hamper the transition from Collins subs to new French-designed vessels. Photograph: Cpois David Connolly/AFP/Getty Australian military Crew shortage could leave Australia’s new submarines high and dry – report There are 600 submariners now but report warns 1,500 will be needed for new fleet Lisa Martin @LMARTI Mon 8 Oct 2018 00.45 EDT Share on Facebook

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Australia’s new multi-billion-dollar fleet of submarines may not be able to be taken out to sea unless the Department of Defence addresses a looming crew shortage, a new report warns.

The paper from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has raised concerns that workforce recruitment will be a huge future challenge when the navy transitions to a new fleet of 12 French-designed vessels from the six Collins class submarines.

The navy has historically had trouble recruiting and retaining enough submariners for the Collins submarines.

It’s understood Australia’s pool of submariners numbers about 600 people but it would need to expand to around 1,500 for the new fleet.

The Collins submarines generally have a crew of 55 during operations at sea but the new bigger vessels may need about 60-70 submariners.

“One of the key risks is developing the workforce because if you don’t get that right you’ve spent your $79 billion and you’ve got your submarines but you can’t actually take them to sea,” report author Marcus Hellyer told Guardian Australia.

“Once you take into account the increased size of the [new] submarines, doubling the number of them – and we’re still on a get-well path with Collins – I suspect it will be closer to three times the submariners we have now.”

Hellyer says the federal government’s estimated $50bn acquisition cost of the submarines is likely to be closer to $79bn once inflation is taken into account because Defence is employing a “cheeky” accounting trick.

“I’m reasonably confident $79bn is in the ballpark,” he said.

Hellyer said it was important to have a pyramid workforce structure with extra juniors coming through the ranks, otherwise there could be a shortage of senior personnel in the future.

He argues in the report that an east-coast submarine base is necessary because it would give access to Australia’s major population centres.

“Without this, it’s very difficult to see how the navy could ever crew the future submarine fleet – rendering the massive investment in the vessels nugatory,” he said.

HMAS Stirling navy base, south of Perth, is home to the six Collins submarines but Sydney was the headquarters for the previous Oberon submarine fleet until 1999.

Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong are possible base locations. However, Sydney’s Garden Island naval base is already overcrowded.

Hellyer said China’s growing presence in the South Pacific bolstered the strategic case for an east coast base in addition to the one out west.

The Submarine Institute of Australia president, Mark Sander, a former Oberon submariner, said it can be difficult to attract people to the job, despite the high salaries, because of the unique working conditions.

Submariners can be at sea for months on end without sunlight and they spend long periods away from family.

“I loved it – if I was younger I would go back to sea today,” he told the Guardian.

He expects the new submarine fleet to be designed to have better living conditions as well as be more friendly to women.

Norway became the first country to allow women to serve on submarines in 1985. Australia followed suit in 1998 but the US only lifted its ban in 2010.

Since 2011, both genders bunk together on Australian submarines while on operations.

Last week, the defence minister, Christopher Pyne, dismissed reports that the contract to build Australia’s new fleet of submarines is in trouble, claiming the project remains on budget and on schedule.

The federal government is yet to finalise its strategic partnering agreement, with French shipbuilder Naval Group.

It’s understood the sticking points on negotiations include warranty duration, the level of Australian content, as well as a potential sale or merger between Naval Group and Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri.

In 2016 the Turnbull government agreed to purchase a dozen Shortfin Barracuda-class submarines to replace the ageing Collins subs, which were launched in 1998. The contract was awarded to French shipbuilder Naval Group (formerly DCNS), which agreed to build the subs in Adelaide, starting in 2022.