Ahead of the UAE Security Forum 2018, “Yemen after the War: Addressing the Challenges of Peace and Reconstruction,” the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington examines the interests of the external parties to Yemen’s conflict and evaluates the implications for reconstruction in a new policy paper.

Executive Summary

The ongoing conflict in Yemen has exacted a disastrous toll on the country’s people, economy, infrastructure, and institutions, as well as the ties that bind them. The effort to rebuild both the tangible and intangible aspects of Yemeni society will be complicated by not only the fragmentation among Yemen’s political and military factions, but also by the multitude of foreign actors and interests that, directly and indirectly, have come to exert an influence over the conflict, or could do so in the future.

This paper seeks to elucidate who these outside forces are, what the nature is of their involvement, and what their converging and conflicting interests mean for Yemen’s future reconstruction effort. For example, it is clear that direct intervention by the two main foreign actors, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, has made these regional states deeply committed to the outcome in Yemen. Yet that very investment may incline each state to try and shape the postconflict environment in a manner that privileges the interests of allies, to the detriment of others perceived as adversaries. This substantially complicates the reconstruction process by potentially hindering the equal distribution of reconstruction resources. Moreover, Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s regional adversary, Iran, could advance its own strategic goals by prolonging the conflict through the continued provision of, or significant upgrades to, material support to the Houthi rebels.