-Pics via Halifax Drunk

The Flames

are seeing a remarkable upswing in their possession in the last few

months. At its lowest point, right

before and after New Year’s, the Flames rolling 10-game 5v5 close FF% was 39.4%

(near the bottom of the league). It has

been steadily climbing since the dust up with the Canucks in January and today

(March 26, 2014) the rolling 10-game 5v5 FF% sits at a respectable 53.6%.

-Courtesy of Extra Skater (a very outstanding website)

The question is what is happening with this

club that is creating a constant and significant improvement of possession in

the past two months?

Recent

visualized Corsi analysis, provided by Justin, gives a hint to what might be

happening. We can see there are a few

guys that are driving the boat – those being Backlund, Brodie and Giordano

(BBG) with honorable mentions to Cammalleri and Galiardi. It’s clear that those three in particular are

possession beasts, despite facing the toughest competition on the team. BBG has

been so dominant, compared to the rest of the team, that Kent and I discussed

whether or not it was possible that it was these three that could equate to the

dramatic increase in possession. The

theory we came up with was that the coaching staff was strategically placing BBG

on the ice together and this was leading to a positive feedback loop of

possession dominance that was boosting the team up from disaster possession

rates to pretty darn good.

To

investigate whether or not this was the case, we took 10-game snapshots of the

dark days (the memorable low scoring streak around New Year’s) and the

entertaining and admirable March performance.

Each game in the 10-game snapshot has been broken down, play-by-play, to

parcel out the Corsi (total shot attempts for – total shot attempts against) of

various scenarios (e.g., Backlund solo, Backlund and Giordano, Backlund and

Brodie, Backlund, Giordano and Brodie, etc.) to suss out if there were any

differences between the scenarios.

Let’s have a

look…

THE NUMBERS

Low Point (Philadelphia, Dec 2013 – Vancouver,

Jan 2014) Backs (Tot) Gio (Tot) Brodie (Tot) Backs (S) Gio (S) Brodie (S) BaG BaB GB BBG None CF 180 249 202 43 56 35 45 19 75 73 179 CA 151 201 191 42 58 55 31 24 58 54 189 Total 331 450 393 85 114 90 76 43 133 127 368 Corsi 54.4% 55.3% 51.4% 50.6% 49.1% 38.9% 59.2% 44.2% 56.4% 57.5% 48.6%

High Point (Edmonton, March 2014 – Buffalo, March

2014) Backs (Tot) Gio (Tot) Brodie (Tot) Backs (S) Gio (S) Brodie (S) BaG BaB GB BBG None CF 246 286 242 70 30 38 68 17 95 91 132 CA 166 165 162 70 31 38 24 13 53 59 228 Total 412 451 404 140 61 76 92 30 148 150 360 Corsi 59.7% 63.4% 59.9% 50.0% 49.2% 50.0% 73.9% 56.7% 64.2% 60.7% 36.7%





Editor’s Note: While Corsi is

often broken down by circumstance (5 vs 5, 5 vs. 4, etc.), this initial analysis

is all situations combined. The reason is Backlund, Brodie and Giordano

play in all three situations. In retrospect, special

teams are likely confounding the results to some degree but the results are still

quite incredible and warranted the initial post. As we dive deeper with this type of analysis

in the future, we will likely parse out special teams.

At the low

point, every combination of Backlund, Giordano and Brodie, whether playing

together or by themselves, was better than when none of them were on the

ice. The only exceptions were Brodie

playing by himself and Brodie playing with Backlund. Those two situations were slightly worse than

when none of them were on the ice. Both

instances had rather small sample sizes, however.

Today (the

high point), the same trend emerges, without the Brodie exceptions. Every instance where any of Backlund, Brodie

and/or Giordano is on the ice leads to a higher possession rate than when none

of them are on the ice. Interestingly,

the Corsi when none of the big three are on the ice has actually decreased

quite substantially in the current 10-game set to a pretty horrible 37% (keep

in mind: there are several instances when none of BBG is on the ice for the PP

and it’s still this bad). Obviously, BBG is having a huge effect on how the

Flames perform. Additionally,

some interesting things emerge between the two 10-game sets.

First, the three

are clearly playing more together these days.

Based on the possession rates, the three are on the ice at the same time

about 14% more now than they were earlier (about 33% overall). Whether it’s two

of them on the ice at a time or all three, it has increased in almost every

instance except for the Backlund – Brodie combination (coincidentally, the only

combination that hasn’t proved to work extremely well).

Second,

Backlund is being used much more effectively nowadays than he was earlier. His ice-time has only increased by about a

minute but the total Corsi attempts (for and against) when he’s on the ice has increased

by approx. 20%. The increase in attempts

both ways can likely be attributed to playing with more skilled linemates and

in all situations (5v5, PP, PK and final minutes of a close game).

Third,

unlike Backlund, Giordano and Brodie are not playing any more now than they

were in the low-point 10-game set.

They’re actually playing slightly less.

However, Gio, today, finds himself on the ice with Backlund and/or

Brodie 86% of the time compared to 75% of the time before. Brodie, less noticeably, is on the ice with

at least one of Backlund or Gio 82% of the time now compared to 78% of the time

before.

Fourth,

Backlund and Giordano are playing together much more now and they are

especially dominant. Their Corsi over

the most recent 10-game set was a ridiculous 74%. This is likely due to the fact that the two

of them are playing on the #1 PP together while Brodie is on the second unit.

But what’s important to note is that they also often play together on the top

penalty killing unit and the astronomical Corsi still persists. Their penalty kill shift will often be much

shorter than their powerplay shift which provides some insight into the stark

difference in CF and CA but still.

Fifth, over

the past few months, Giordano and Brodie (aka Brodano) have solidified themselves as the # 1 D

unit for the Flames. In the first

10-game set, Brodie and Gio were together only 58% of the time. Today, the two are paired 67% of the time and

seem to be getting better by the game (as noted by the drastic change in their Corsi

from the first 10 game set – 56%, which was still incredible, to today – 64%). The only time they don’t play together

nowadays is on special teams and the adjustment time after the PP or PK ends.

Sixth,

Brodie appears to have had a rough patch in the first 10-game set but is back

in form now which is helping the Flames’ rising possession rates. His possession

when just he was on the ice was 39% in the ugly set. Conversely, today, playing about 16% less by

himself than he was, his possession rates are right up there with Giordano and

Backlund at 50%. It is important to note,

this possession rate includes significant penalty kill time without Giordano

and Backlund.

Last, and

perhaps most interesting, is the difference when one of those players is on the

ice without the other two compared to when they are on the ice with one or

both. Backlund, Giordano and Brodie are

still admirable possession players playing by themselves (50%, 49% and 50%,

respectively). But together, any

combination, has yielded an average possession rate of 64%. The eye test suggest that BBG feed off of

each other when they’re on the ice and this certainly provides evidence that

they should continue to do so forever and ever.

SUM IT UP

The Flames

possession rise over the past few months is likely due to a multitude of

variables. However, one significant

variable that appears to be playing a large role is the increase in mutual

playing time of the big three – Backlund, Giordano and Brodie. Alone they can hold their own,

possession-wise, but in combinations of two or all three together is a whole

different story. When playing together,

their possession rates are off the charts, verging into the elite category.

What’s more, based on the 10-game snap shots of now and the low-point of the

season, they seem to be getting better the more they play with each other. This is something to be excited about as the

Flames, assuming they realize this dominance, can build around these three

players. If the Flames can add a few

more possession dynamos to go along with the high-end skill they will likely be

drafting over the next couple of years, this rebuild could be shorter than

anybody ever anticipated.





