The widespread flooding in Thailand that disrupted operations at hard disk drive factories will lead to significantly declining PC shipments, say market analysts. Thailand accounted for 40 to 45 percent of worldwide HDD production in the first half of 2011, but flooding has impacted more than a dozen factories, according to IDC.

Much of the PC production for the fourth quarter of 2011 occurred before the flooding, or can be completed with existing drive inventory. But overall PC production will still decline this quarter and drop even further in the beginning of 2012, with normal operations not expected to return until the second half of next year, IDC said. "PC shipments will decline between 2.2 percent and 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, down from a prior forecast for 5.1 percent growth," Bloomberg reported, quoting IDC numbers. "In the first quarter, shipments may drop by 1.8 percent to 13.4 percent. IDC had projected a gain of 8.2 percent."

Goldman Sachs is also projecting PC shipment declines of 3 percent year-over-year in the current quarter, and an 8.5 percent drop in the first quarter of 2012, according to Bloomberg. Goldman Sachs further said Microsoft's profit and sales will decline because fewer Windows PCs will be sold. IDC noted that hard drive prices are rising "as demand exceeds supply and manufacturers face increased costs for components, expedited shipments, and shifting of production to new locations." Pricing won't stabilize until June.

The smaller hardware vendors are likely to lose out. "In response to the crisis, priority will be given to the large PC manufacturers that drive HDD shipment volumes as well as to the high-margin products used in enterprise servers and storage," IDC Research Vice President John Rydning said in a press release. In the PC category, the biggest impacts will be on emerging markets, netbooks, and entry-level consumer PCs.