“Eight to 10 percent isn’t per se a crisis,” Meyer said.

And, it’s important to draw the line between the two because UK bacon is a completely different product than US bacon, he said — it’s more like loin there — and the US doesn’t import bacon from other countries.

“A global reduction in supply is almost unavoidable but I don’t think we’re going to have lines for bacon the U.S.!” said Meyer, who also writes a daily livestock report. “Are we going to have less product in the second half of 2013? Yes.”

Rising meat prices have been a concern to the industry for the last five years since the rise of ethanol, which, like feed for livestock, comes from corn. The recent drought in the U.S. and Russia piled on to that. Meyer said without ethanol as a base strain on the industry, it might have weathered the drought better. Though, the drought was even a rarity — the last time the U.S. corn belt suffered a drought was 1988.

Meyer said the unbelievable attention that the potential shortage has received is a testament to America’s sizzling, smokey love affair with bacon.

“I’ve been talking about [rising meat prices] since 2006 but nobody would listen until someone said we’re not going to have enough bacon,” Meyer said. “If I’d known that I’d have used different words. Don’t take away their bacon!”

To be clear, there isn't necessarily going to be a shortage in the U.S., Meyer said, but prices are definitely still a big concern.

The price of bacon and other pork products hit a record $3.56 a pound in 2011 and last month reached $3.53, according to the USDA.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see that number go to $3.60 to $3.70 a pound,” Meyer said.

And this is not good news for families who are already grappling with unemployment and digging out of the recession.

“Anytime you drive up retail prices — beef, pork, chicken, turkey, eggs, milk … it falls on people with low incomes and fixed incomes,” he said. “The people who can’t afford it.”

Over the summer, the government announced a plan to buy $100 million of pork products for schools, the military, etc. It’s a start, but Meyer said it’s still probably not enough to make a dent in the industry’s problems.

So, let’s cut to the chase — which presidential candidate would be better for bacon?

Meyer said the industry isn’t favoring either candidate but what they’d vote for is less regulation.

“It’s not a crisis but there will certainly be a reduction in pork supplies in 2013 and that means higher prices for consumers,” he said.

Still, Lauer said, she’s not taking any chances.

Mulling the reality of a post-apocalyptic, bacon-less Sunday brunch, “there is serious potential for a breakdown in our social structure!” she quipped. “And who knows what lengths people will go to in order to fulfill their basic bacon needs.”

In an effort to "get ahead of this life-altering event," Brooks Reynolds, one of the co-founders of the Blue Ribbon Bacon Festival, and other members of the Iowa Bacon Board, traveled to Reykjavik, Iceland for the "International Bacon Summit."

"One of the key resolutions from the Icelandic and Iowa Bacon Boards was to build a world with the proverbial pig in every pot, similar to Herbert Hoover's 'chicken in every pot' presidential slogan in 1928," Reynolds said. "The first step in accomplishing this lofty goal is to encourage bacon lovers to go out and raise their own pigs. If they don't have room in their homes for a pig, we recommend building a 'personal bacon readiness kit' over the next year, which should include things like: thick cut, applewood smoked, dry cured, Berkshire, etc."

He's afraid to even think of a possible bacon shortage and what it could mean -- social and political unrest, an increased need for swine security and a "tidal wave of black market (boar bacon, tofu bacon, turkey bacon and beef bacon) bacon hitting the streets," he said.

And if there were a shortage, what would it mean for the Blue Ribbon Bacon Festival?

"We would most likely need to heighten security and consider using identification verification equipment like retinal scans at the door," Reynolds said.

“Perhaps it’s finally time for our country to address the need for a Strategic Bacon Reserve,” Lauer said firmly. “In the meantime, I’m going into survival mode and have already started stockpiling. As FEMA says, ‘Prepare. Plan. Stay informed.’”

Well said, Heather. Stay tuned to the Pony blog for all the latest bacon and bacon crisis news!

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