Global climate change; ah yes, this elusive and for some reason still debated phenomena, although less and less so as time moves on. Since it is something I hope to discuss and see the effects of in my journey north, it is worth an article of explanation.

**Warning #1** While this blog tends to have the ring of doom and gloom, I do try to bring it together with a sparkly, happy conclusion. Read on!

**Warning #2** I am not a climatologist and have a limited science background, but information collected from sources that I trust and that are gathering momentum around the world show that more and more science and scientists accept the fact that there is a global climate change occurring and that it is most likely a man-made occurrence.

Generally accepted facts:

– Since the beginning of the 20th century, the mean surface temperature of the earth has increased by about 1.1º F (0.6°Celsius).

– Over the last 40 years, which is the period with most reliable data, the temperature increased by about 0.5 º F (0.2-0.3°Celsius).

– Warming in the 20th century is greater than at any time during the past 400-600 years.

Yes, yes. Geologically speaking, these numbers are like stating the temperature at 3:04pm today with doom in your voice. The world is millions of years old and has experienced warming and cooling periods within its history. But not at the RATE that we are experiencing now. And from the viewpoint that the causes are of man-made origin, there is no predicted end of the rising temperature and changes due to them.

From what we do see, by drilling deep into glaciers and taking ice samples with ancient carbon locked within, the atmospheric CO 2 levels are the highest they have been for 650,000 years. This high quantity of CO 2 is what is creating the greenhouse effect, allowing heat and rays to enter into our atmosphere without allowing them to leave, building up as time passes. An increase in the earth’s surface temperature affects the climate we experience — such as rainfall and wind patterns.

Climate and Agriculture

Changing climate patterns have effects well beyond needing to change your summer vacation schedule. From the perspective of my studies, climate and temperature are the factors that we have developed societies and agricultural systems around, which more often than not co-evolved. Dependent on these factors, some crops were chosen over others as being the most productive and successful. Communities settled and worked with these crops, developed them throughout generations to best suit their needs and location, and created customs and traditions around the fruits harvested. These crops aren’t prepared for the changing climate they are now growing in, be it too hot, cold, dry or wet. The state of agriculture, most notably closer to the equator where the largest percentage of our food is grown, is already lowering in productivity. Some scientists, as quoted in this World Watch Institute article, whistle the change of productivity could be as large as a 10% decrease in harvest for every 1° C rise in temperature. This change will affect 75% of the crops humans consume, negatively impacting the large population of people who are already food insecure that live along the equator.

Now let’s be more specific about the climate changes already seen to be affecting these crops.

Currently, rain patterns are shifting, creating droughts and in some extreme cases creating new deserts, called desertification. Well-known examples of this are happening throughout Northwestern Africa, including Niger, Nigeria, Morocco and Algeria. Lands that had been farmed for generations suddenly become deserts, incapable of producing the crops that have sustained their family and their way of life for generations. Communities start migrating looking for new lands to continue their lifestyle and support their families.

The Center for American Progress wrote a good article, from the perspective of American National Security, about the effects of climate change on Northwestern Africa. When communities migrate, they either seek new land or move to urban areas. Territorial disputes begin for pastoral grounds, and in urban areas, religious tensions have caused hundreds of deaths. This article goes so far as to connect global climate change to the strengthening powers of Al Qaeda.

As noted above, water that no longer falls in one location shifts to other lands and is flooding fields; either scenario makes it more difficult or impossible to grow food. Too much rain on a crop is just as disastrous as too little. Rising sea levels and more intense and frequent flooding are also attributed to climate change caused effects that are reducing this region’s agricultural capacity. Sea levels are indisputably rising and the result is salt water infiltration into freshwaters, moving up the water ways and threatening some of the richest agricultural deltas in the world, such as the Nile and Ganges (see Rising sea salinates India’s Ganges).

Experiencing Climate Change in Paraguay

For some people, anecdotes are nothing but a story, a piece of fiction. Talking to the people in my community, the older members especially, it is very clear that climate has changed drastically within their lifetime. Anecdote or not, this is what they tell me.

Don Porcinio, in his 70s, remembers the hottest days in his youth hitting 35° C (95° F), peaking at 38° C (100.4° F). One afternoon last summer I was told that we have a weather advisory, to stay home if possible. “Oh?” I asked, “Another storm is coming?” “No, it is going to be very hot. So hot that they don’t want people to work outside. The rays hit us so strong here.” You’ve got to be kidding me.

In October of last year, our spring, was the first time I remember it getting to 40° C (104° F). That was still two months away from summer solstice here. Last year, the hottest day I remember was 45 °C (113° F). Even if those old Paraguayan memories are exaggerating their simple 30°-something joys, it definitely was not as hot as it is now. Nor do they remember droughts like we are experiencing now.

Part of it could be global climate change, another part of it could be the almost completely successful deforestation of the large surrounding area where we live in southern Paraguay. Where trees used to grab and hold moisture, rains come and water goes all too quickly. Trees created a natural wind break, which also means they slowed or stopped the clouds to allow them to rain. Rain now falls less often, and dangerously strong storms and downpours now take its place.

Deforestation and climate change work together to make agriculture more difficult. Sub-tropical forests were cut down to gain access to their extremely fertile soil. But the soil was only fertile because of years of vegetative clutter falling and creating a beautiful mulch that composted into it. Without the trees, the constant cycle of fertilizing stopped. To add insult to injury, without trees the faster winds and stronger rains/ droughts are difficult on the crops. This creates perfect scenarios for erosion stripping away much of our top soil, the layer of the soil that holds the majority of the fertility. Soil depletion continues.

My Sparkly, Happy Conclusion

Miracle maker, you say? How am I going to get sparkly, happy out of this?

Some see the positive effects of having an atmosphere with more carbon dioxide. CO2 is required by plants to grow, so some plants, rice in particular, are suspected to benefit from this change. And obviously, places that have been too cold to farm previously are warming up to the subject (haha). In the end though, these numbers do not even out the negative effects, and are still most negatively affecting food production in areas that are already food insecure.

But…

Climate is only one factor likely to shape the future of food supply. Using harvest trends for the years 1980-2008, and their impressive statistical abilities (the one class I almost flunked in college….), researchers determined the relative importance of climate on yields. It indicates that “10 years of climate trend is equivalent to a setback of roughly one year of technology gains.”

Still don’t see the sparkly, happy?

We, the farmers, the scientists, the visionaries, the historians, we are the ones that continue to develop and revitalize agricultural technology. Agriculture continues to produce more to sustain our growing population only because our innovation continues to develop, not because we are given more land or because the soils are improving. In fact, in spite of these facts we continue to produce more.

It is up to us to develop technology that works WITH the systems of the soil and the natural processes, not AGAINST them as so very often happens when we become dependent on chemical inputs, fertilizers and poisons.

If humans are anything, we are creative and innovative. With this as our greatest tool, we have the ability, and the

need, to develop new technologies for our changing climate and earth. This includes introducing closed loop systems, successfully using our waste on all levels to create fertilizers, using crop rotation, working with the functions of the plants and animals, and developing systems that integrate trees, forests, and as much biodiversity as possible while still being productive and able to support families.

Global climate change and its continued progression may be too far along to make large changes in any great hurry, but if we developed technology and organized ourselves into this mess, we can develop technology and organize ourselves out of it.

I’m excited to meet people who are exploring these possibilities on my bike ride north!

Other sources and organizations doing good research:

The Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers

Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO): Global climate change and agricultural production. Direct and indirect effects of changing hydrological, pedological and plant physiological processes, by Fakhri Bazzaz and Wim Sombroek, 1996.

Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980

Some links listed above are sourced from Jake Goldberg’s presentation, “Cambio Climatico.”