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Watching the campaigns in Wisconsin this cycle, and particularly the gubernatorial contest between Tony Evers and incumbent Republican Scott Walker, the goggle-eyed homunculus hired by Koch Industries to manage this particular midwest subsidiary, as well as the congressional campaign in Paul Ryan's old First Congressional District between Democratic candidate Randy Bryce and Bryan Steil, a former Ryan aide, I have been struck by how little emphasis has been placed on the massive, taxpayer-subsidized deal that Walker and his pet legislature cut with Foxconn, a Chinese company that makes components for various LED products.

At the time the deal was signed, it was going to be the capstone of Walker's career; the president* even came out to turn a shovelful of earth. It was going to be the shining example of the "business-friendly" environment into which eight years of Republican rule had turned Wisconsin. And now that the project is underway, no Republican wants to talk about—let alone brag on—this massive deal. Bruce Murphy in The Verge has noticed this phenomenon, too.

But what seemed so simple on a napkin [Ed. Note: the details of the deal were famously drawn up on the back of a napkin at the first meeting between Walker and the Foxconn executives. It was going to be part of the legend.] has turned out to be far more complicated and messy in real life. As the size of the subsidy has steadily increased to a jaw-dropping $4.1 billion, Foxconn has repeatedly changed what it plans to do, raising doubts about the number of jobs it will create. Instead of the promised Generation 10.5 plant, Foxconn now says it will build a much smaller Gen 6 plant, which would require one-third of the promised investment, although the company insists it will eventually hit the $10 billion investment target. And instead of a factory of workers building panels for 75-inch TVs, Foxconn executives now say the goal is to build “ecosystem” of buzzwords called “AI 8K+5G” with most of the manufacturing done by robots.

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Polls now show most Wisconsin voters don’t believe the subsidy will pay off for taxpayers, and Walker didn’t even mention the deal in a November 2017 speech announcing his run for re-election. He now trails in that re-election bid against a less-than-electric Democratic candidate, the bland state superintendent of public instruction Tony Evers.

Dear Scott: if you're sitting at the table, and you can't figure out who the sucker is....

The size of Wisconsin’s subsidy quickly began to grow, as spelled out in state legislation passed about six weeks later and implemented by the Walker administration. By December 2017, the public cost had grown to include $764 million in new tax incentives from local governments in Racine County, which is just 40 minutes south of Milwaukee where the plant was to be located. Other additions included $164 million for road and highway connections built to service the plant, plus $140 million for a new electric transmission line to Foxconn that would be paid for by all 5 million ratepayers of the public utility We Energies. With other small costs added, the total Foxconn subsidy hit $4.1 billion — a stunning $1,774 per household in Wisconsin.

...it's you.

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Back when the subsidy was $3 billion, Wisconsin’s non-partisan Legislative Fiscal Bureau estimated that it would take until 2043 for taxpayers to recoup the subsidy. This long payback period was due to Walker and Republicans effectively cutting the state’s corporate income tax for manufacturers to zero in 2011. This meant the subsidies to Foxconn would not be a tax write-off, but billions in cash that would be paid back by state income taxes paid by Foxconn workers. At $4.1 billion, the payback date for the state was likely 2050 or later.

The plant had to be built somewhere in the industrial midwest because Foxconn needed the Great Lakes to supply the water to clean the glass products it manufactured. You may find his current "Let's All Be Friends" persona obnoxious, but Ohio Governor John Kasich saw through the scam at once.

As for Ohio, fellow Republican Gov. John Kasich condemned the Wisconsin deal. “I’ll tell you one thing,” he said, “it’s not going to take us 40 years to make back the investment we make. We don’t buy deals.”

There's a lot more to this story, including the outrage among Wisconsin's environmentalists about the environmental impact of a manufacturing process so vitally dependent on heavy metals that are proven to be injurious to human health, as well as a real backlash against exactly how much water Foxconn is going to suck out of Lake Michigan. (Bryce makes a regular point of this in his campaign appearances and in the debate against Steil.) What is plain is that if, as the polls seem to indicate, Walker loses his bid for re-election, Foxconn will be a huge part of the reason.

What is also plain is that if, as the polls seem to indicate, Evers wins, this massive dead fish will be dumped on his desk as soon as he's sworn in. And if Evers doesn't get re-elected four years from now, this multi-generational boondoggle is going to be why.

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Charles P. Pierce Charles P Pierce is the author of four books, most recently Idiot America, and has been a working journalist since 1976.

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