It is leading TV bulletins, on the front pages, in the prayers of temple priests and even on special emails sent out to parents of exclusive nursery schools in Delhi. But the one place the satellite has yet to reach is the orbit of Mars, its final destination.

Those running India’s first Mars mission hope this will happen at 7.30am local time on Wednesday. Failure is almost inconceivable. The prime minister, Narendra Modi, will be in the control room of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) in the southern city of Bangalore as the rocket bearing the satellite attempts to enter the orbit of the red planet. Tens of millions of people across the country are expected to follow the progress of the craft live.

The mission’s climax comes days before Modi heads to the US to deliver his maiden address to the UN general assembly and to meet Barack Obama. If the mission succeeds, India will be the first nation to get a rocket to Mars on its first attempt, and the first in Asia to reach Mars at all.

“Just getting there is a big, bold statement. Succeeding would be a giant one about India’s place in the region and in the world,” said Pallava Bagla, a high-profile science commentator.

However, there is a significant chance of failure. Of 51 previous attempts to reach Mars, more than half failed, Bagla said.

Mangalyaan, which means “Mars craft” in Hindi, took off from the island of Shriharikota, off India’s eastern coast, 10 months ago. The 1,350kg (3,000lb) device first headed for an elliptical orbit around Earth, after which a series of manoeuvres and short burns of its rocket engines sent it on towards Mars.

Scientists from ISRO successfully tested the main engine on Monday and performed a course correction that put the low-cost project on track to enter the red planet’s orbit. Experts said reducing the craft’s speed from its current rate of 22km (13.7 miles) per second would be a key challenge.

“It has covered 98% of the distance but the last 2% is the tricky bit. If it is too fast it will fly by Mars and be lost in space. If it is too slow it will crash into the planet,” said Bagla.

Some have questioned the $70m (£43m) price tag for a country still dealing with widespread hunger and poverty. But India defended the Mars mission by noting its importance in providing hi-tech jobs for scientists and engineers and practical applications in solving problems on Earth.

Last year the UK allotted £80m to developing joint space missions with China and India. Modi aims to establish India as a bigger player in the $300bn space technology market, even as neighbouring China gives stiff competition with its bigger launchers.

Commentators said India could go further. “We have a threshold capability but we don’t go beyond that for the simple reasons that our economy is not doing well. The model is very successful, the space guys have done outstanding work but we are just not investing enough,” said Manoj Joshi, a Delhi-based analyst.

Success would make India the fourth space power after the US, Europe and Russia to orbit or land on the red planet. The cost of the Indian effort is a tenth of that of an ongoing mission by Nasa that put a satellite into the orbit of Mars two days ago.

Nasa’s Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (Maven) mission aims to help scientists understand what happened to the water on Mars and the carbon dioxide in its atmosphere several billion years ago. How Mars lost its atmosphere is one of science’s biggest mysteries.

The answers could shed light on the planet’s potential to support life – even if that was just microbial life – long ago. Maven’s findings are also expected to help add to knowledge of how humans could survive on a future visit to Mars, perhaps as early as 2030.

Maven’s principal investigator, Bruce Jakosky, said: “We are anxiously awaiting the arrival in two days of the India MOM mission and we are hoping for their success. We are sending them the best wishes from the entire Maven team for a successful orbit insertion and mission.”

The Indian project aims to study Mars’s surface and mineral composition, and scan its atmosphere for methane, a chemical strongly tied to life on Earth.

On Sunday, Vishwa Hindu Parishad, a hardline affiliate group of Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata party, offered ritual prayers in Delhi for the mission. The leader of the group said success would prove that India “has regained its status of superpower of the world”.