10:56

The Liberal Party has won 13 seats (a majority), with a chance of two other seats. Labor has at least eight seats, while the Greens are home in one seat. By my count, there are three seats still in play, and none of these seats will be decided tonight.

The last seat in Bass is a contest between a second Labor seat and Greens MP Andrea Dawkins. It’s not clear which Labor candidate is in the best chance to win the seat, but Labor is closer to winning that final seat. This is on top of three Liberal seats and one Labor seat which have been decided.



Labor is in the lead for the final seat in Braddon. Labor has won at least one seat, which will either go to Anita Dow or sitting MP Shane Broad. The other of these two candidates will face off against the fourth Liberal MP (either Roger Jaensch or Joan Rylah). Labor is more likely to win that seat.

The Liberal Party’s third candidate is in a race with Greens MP Rosalie Woodruff for the last seat in Franklin. Labor has won a second seat, while Will Hodgman’s massive personal vote has locked in at least two Liberal seats. The total Liberal vote sits on 2.91 quotas, while the Greens are on 0.85 quotas. 78% of the entire Liberal vote was a personal vote for Hodgman, and many of those votes will flow on as preferences. There’s reason to believe that quite a few of these votes will flow to candidates outside of the Liberal ticket, which could strengthen Woodruff’s position.

