European elections: Surge of support means a third of MEPs could be populist - Sky analysis

European elections: Surge of support means a third of MEPs could be populist - Sky analysis

By Carmen Aguilar Garcia, data journalist and Philip Whiteside, international news reporter

Around a third of the seats in the next European Parliament could be taken by candidates from populist parties or coalitions if elections were held this week, Sky News analysis has found.

If confirmed at the 23-26 May polling, such a result could have profound implications for the European project - as well as for the negotiations on the UK's departure and future trade deal with the bloc.

Projections of a populist wave across Europe may also alarm those who view Donald Trump's-style of appealing directly to his supporters, over and above anyone else, as potentially harmful to democracy.

Experts say populists advocate that society is ultimately separated into two groups - the people and the elite, and the point of politics is to follow the will of the people.


Based on current polling and assuming the UK has left the EU, 233 seats out of 705 are projected to be won by parties or coalitions identified as populist.

Our analysis has shown that there are likely to be 49 populist-related parties or coalitions elected to the next European Parliament.

Half of those are on the far-right of the political spectrum; around one-fifth are on the far-left. The rest use populist rhetoric, but do not conform to the traditional left/right split.

Italy is set to be the largest contributor to the wave, with 61 of its 76 European Parliament (EP) seats projected to be taken by populists.

Image: The League is led by Italy's deputy PM Matteo Salvini

According to the latest report from the EP's Public Opinion Monitoring Unit, the far-right League, with 28 seats, is projected to be the biggest populist party in the parliament.

The 5-Star Movement is projected to have 21, with the remaining 12 going to smaller Italian parties.

In all, other than Italy, where 80% of the seats are likely to fall to populists, support for such parties is strongest in eastern Europe.

The Polish Law and Justice party (PiS) will have the third largest number in the EP with 20 seats.

Hungary is likely to see three quarters of its seats held by populist parties, with the far-right Fidesz, led by Viktor Orban, expected to win 16 of the country's 21 positions in the European Parliament.

Who are the winners and losers?

Despite a record number of seats being taken by populist parties, not all are doing better than they did in the previous election in 2014.

Some have seen dramatic rises in their support; others have flatlined; others have actually lost support.

In all, 20 out of the 49 analysed have seen their support increase two or more points in the polls compared to five years ago.

Italy's anti-immigration League is the biggest winner, with its support up 27 points since 2014.

Slovenia's List Of Marjan Sarec, which is allied to the EP's liberal group, is up 26 points up from the last election and the Czech Republic's ANO 2011 has increased by 15 points since the last EU vote.

Fidesz and Law and Justice (PiS) have seen their support remain high but level out.

France's National Rally (RN), which used to be called the National Front and is led by Marine Le Pen, is predicted to have 19 seats.

The UK won't take part in the European election, unless Brexit is further delayed. In that case, Nigel Farage - whose UKIP party won the 2014 vote - has suggested he will lead his new Brexit Party.

What is populism and how does the European Parliament work?

Much has been written in the last few years about the potential consequences of a rise in populism.

According to one of the leading experts, Cas Mudde, populist parties are those "that endorse the set of ideas that society is ultimately separated into two homogeneous and antagonistic groups, 'the pure people' versus 'the corrupt elite.'"

He says all use language that argues politics should be the "general will of the people".

Some academics say that, while not all forms of populism are bad and some can indeed be helpful, some tend to lump all opponents into the same group - ie those against the people - without taking heed of often complex realities.

This tendency has contributed to the rise of anti-expert sentiment, similar to that employed by Michael Gove in the EU referendum campaign when he told Sky's Faisal Islam "people... have had enough of experts", as well as to greater polarisation and division.

But not all European populists are the same.

Their policies and preoccupations reflect what is going on in each country and they can be from all sides of the political spectrum.

In the European Parliament, because they all have subtly different agendas and often widely diverging political hues, populists often end up sitting in different parts of the "semi-circle".

Many far-right groups refuse even to have an affiliation with one of the eight main groups that sit in the European legislature.

Those eight groups broadly represent the political spectrum of views across the continent.

At least two of the groups have a large proportion of MEPs who are generally regarded as populist, mostly right-wing.

What often unites populists, because of their suspicion of "elites", is they are frequently eurosceptic.

But this varies considerably. When UKIP entered the parliament after winning three seats in 1999, it was one of the few eurosceptic parties that genuinely wanted to quit the bloc. Many, while regarding the institution with some contempt, would prefer to see it curtailed or scaled back, rather than disbanded.

Alternative fur Deutschland, for example, the German right-wing populist party which has seen a rise in support in the last few years, wants to remain in the EU, but wants to return it "to an economic union based on shared interests".

Image: Viktor Orban's Fidesz pledges to 'protect Hungary's economic interests'

Fidesz too, despite pledging to "protect Hungary's economic interests", says it supports "the European Union's independent defence and security policy measures".

As a result of such differing views and the variety of parties, it is far from clear how many will be able to agree on a set of priorities going forward.

Why is it happening?

Populists have taken an increasingly large vote share across Europe over the last few decades.

Experts say it is part of an ongoing phenomenon they call fragmentation.

This is where the long standing parties that have been around for generations are unable to rely on supporters in the way they have in the past. This allows new parties to spring into existence to take advantage.

Dr Stijn van Kessel, lecturer in European politics at Queen Mary University of London, said fragmentation comes largely from changes in society.

"Traditional parties, like the Social Democrats or Christian Democrats, are losing their traditional support, because of economic change and fewer people voting on the basis of religious motivations," he told Sky News.

"So there's scope for new political actors that mobilise on issues like immigration.

"It's quite a gradual process. You see that the populist radical right - the 'party family' that addresses this issue most fervently - is slowly extending its support."

Another factor is the low turnouts those elections usually have.

With far fewer bothering to vote for MEPs than in national elections, the chance is there for protest votes to have more impact.

Dr van Kessel said: "People don't perceive them as being as important as national elections, so the outcome is quite different. First, turnout is low; [and second] people feel freer to cast protest votes against established parties, so, traditionally the vote for radical parties on the fringes is higher."

What could happen afterwards?

LEGISLATION

Although populists have many and varied agendas, they do have some things in common. For example, they don't like what they see as a "distant", bureaucratic organisation like the EU exerting increasing control over nation states.

They are also likely to block and obstruct new legislation, experts say.

Image: Some right-wing parties have grouped together to ensure they have more impact

Dr Paul Copeland, senior lecturer in public policy at Queen Mary's School of Politics and International Relations, told Sky News: "The two main groupings, the European People's Party and the Socialists and Democrats, are not whipped in the way they are at Westminster. Some will toe the line and some won't.

"[With a third of seats occupied by populists], what you may find is that actually getting those simple majority votes in the parliament will be even more difficult and policy agreements will become increasingly more rare.

"On the right at least, a lot of the purpose of populism is to block and obstruct. So they will do everything they can anyway to block and obstruct EU policy agreements. You may find that the sort of cogs and wheels slow down."

POLICY

One area populist parties may agree and influence policy is migration.

Dr Sarah Wolff, director of the Centre for European Research at QMUL and an expert in the EU's external relations, told Sky News there will be a debate on freedom of movement, as well as on the possible revision of Schengen - the area that allows people to travel freely without passport control - and the Dublin convention on asylum seekers.

She said: "A lot of people in these parties would say we shouldn't have refugees that should be able to move [around] - so we should have more strict controls.

Image: Countries like Hungary, which is ruled by a populist party, have already acted to limit migration

"The big risk is that they would advocate for less rights for refugees and migrants and more border controls and more externalisation and co-operation with illegitimate governments in Turkey and Libya."

BUDGET

The amount the EU spends every year is limited by an agreement made every seven years, called the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). The next MFF is due in 2020.

Image: Populist MEPs may push for a reduction to the EU budget

Dr Copeland said the populist rise could affect the EU's budget.

"The EU can't agree that spending without the [agreement of the] parliament," he said. "Once it's agreed, it can't be touched afterwards.

"What you could see is populist parties pushing for a reduction in the EU budget, so that it's cheaper for member states to contribute to."

COMMISSION

The commission, effectively the bloc's executive arm, is made up of 28 commissioners (27 after the UK departs) who propose legislation, implement decisions and manage the day-to-day business of the EU.

As they are nominated by the member states and approved by the parliament, there is a potential for several commissioners to be from populist parties. A new set will be nominated after the May elections.

Image: There will be 27 European Commissioners after the UK leaves the bloc

Currently, six European countries are headed by coalitions in which a populist party takes either a leading or supporting role.

It is possible that Italy, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Austria could propose a populist politician as a commissioner.

Populist parties are also performing well ahead of Spain's upcoming elections, so may end up forming a coalition.

Currently, three of the commissioners are from parties considered populist.

In the past, the EP has thrown out commissioners it does not like.

Image: The president of the commission since 2014 has been Jean-Claude Juncker

Dr Copeland said: "If the commissioners are presented and they are regarded as being too integrationist or too pro-federal, I can see this populist group having some kind of impact. It doesn't need to do much to get [enough] votes to get a blocking majority."

What could it mean in the long term?

THE UK/EU RELATIONSHIP

At present, the UK is due to leave the EU, though the timing remains uncertain amid impasse in Westminster.

At some point it is expected to agree a permanent trade deal with the bloc.

A European Parliament that is blocking legislation or is operating at a slower pace than it used to could make it harder for any deal to be ratified. It could also complicate negotiations, with the possibility a larger number of competing groups in the parliament will want to have their input.

On the other hand, eurosceptic MEPs are likely to view Brexit more favourably than main traditional parties, which are typically europhile.

THE EU'S FUTURE

Enshrined in numerous EU treaties, including Maastricht and Lisbon, is the aim that EU countries will seek "ever closer union".

In the last few months, French President Emmanuel Macron has laid out proposals for reforms of the eurozone and for closer integration. A European Parliament with one in three MEPs from a populist party could sink his aspirations.

Image: French President Emmanuel Macron has published his blueprint for the EU

Dr Copeland said: "The current commission president [Jean-Claude Juncker] has released a lot of interesting documents about options for Europe in the future. One of those models is the EU just limits itself to a single market and the single currency and not much else. So the future is a bit unclear.

"There are signals that there is definitely integration fatigue across the member states. I'm not entirely convinced that results in the collapse of the EU. It may just mean that ever-closer union is one of those things that is ignored and not really discussed."

How do MEPs feel about it?

The reaction of MEPs to the prospect of a parliament full of populists depends on where they sit on the political fence.

Sky News contacted the two main groups which currently act as a home for populists in the European Parliament: Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy, which includes several former members of UKIP and Italy's 5-Star; and the Europe of Nations and Freedom, which contains the League and France's National Rally.

Neither provided an MEP for comment.

Those who oppose their politics however have been clear about their fears.

Image: Marisa Matias is worried by the rise of far-right populism

Portuguese MEP Marisa Matias, from the European United Left - Nordic Green Left, told Sky News there are signs the populist right is already influencing the EU and she is alarmed.

"I'm worried about the fact that the far-right will increase. It will [cause further] fragmentation of the already existing fragmentation in the project and our lives will not be easier," she said.

"We are all used to finding consensus and compromises around the margins. My problem is a stronger alliance between the Democratic Liberal right wing and the far-right. If it is the case, it will affect a lot - everything."

To Mr Orban, one of the champions of European populism, the May elections offer Europeans a chance to move toward a new era - one that rejects the liberal politics shaped in the 1960s.

"The European Commission is going, we are coming," he said.

METHODOLOGY::

The parties Sky News is choosing to regard as populist in this piece is based on The PopuList: An Overview of Populist, Far Right, Far Left and Eurosceptic Parties in Europe, by Rooduijn, M., Van Kessel, S., Froio, C., Pirro, A., De Lange, S., Halikiopoulou, D., Lewis, P., Mudde, C. & Taggart, P. (2019).

The list was also completed with S. van Kessel (2015) "Populist Parties in Europe: Agents of Discontent?", Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.

Further independent research was done to find new populist parties that were not in the first two sources. We reached out a series of academic to determine whether the new parties should be part of the populist list. The experts contacted are: Stijn van Kessel, Queen Mary University; Allan Sikk, UCL, Kai Arzheimer, University of Mainz; Berto Salaj, University of Zagreb; Goran Cular, University of Zagreb; Simon Franzmann, Heinrich-Heine Universitat Dusseldorf, and Cristobal Rovira Kaltwasser, Universidad Diego Portales.

The projection of the seats by party is based on the report from the Parliament's Public Opinion Monitoring Unit published on March 1. The institution takes dedicated voting intention surveys for the European elections, but when not available, national voting intention are used.

This analysis has also received guidance from Will Jennings, professor of Political Science and Public Policy at the University of Southampton.

This article was first published on 29 March 2019.