



Another knee blowout sidelines a title shot. For those living under a rock, yesterday Alexander Gustafsson just lost his chance to rematch Jon Jones for the UFC Light Heavyweight belt.

"I was sparring and I felt my knee pop twice, but it didn't hurt, it just felt strange," Gustafsson told UFC.com. "I finished training and came home and then I woke up the next morning and I could barely walk on my right leg. Then I felt the knee right away."

Enter Daniel Cromier, the former Strikeforce Light Heavyweight champion. Undefeated, he’s been howling for a shot, and now it’s his.

Hands down, Jones v Cormier is one of the most compelling match-ups on the books. Try as I might, I can’t envision how the fight will play out: Cormier smothering Jones against the fence for five rounds, never giving him an inch; or Jones raining elbows from half-guard, forever silencing critics inside of three.

I’ve got no clue.

So far as Gustafsson, I’m never stoked when a fight is scrapped. Whether an injury or failed test, cancellations suck. Sucks for a fighter in the midst of a brutal camp, and sucks for fans eager to watch the drama play out.

Which, let’s face it, is why we watch. For the build-up, and the mounting tension. The opening act of the fight announcement gets us thinking, pondering and plotting the action. Not unlike a Shakespearean play. Then come the video promos, which portray the sacrifice, and try and endear us to the actors. Then the press conference. Then the open workouts and weigh-ins.

Every bout unfolds along the same highly-orchestrated schedule, and we, as fans, participate, casting our lots. Picking and arguing for our favorites.

But with Jones vs Cormier I’m at a loss.

So last night I jumped on the Fightmetric site and perused the stats.

In nearly every metric Jones carries the edge: height, reach, age, experience, striking & accuracy, takedowns, submission attempts.

Cormier only bests via defense of takedowns and strikes.

So given this rundown you might give Jones the nod—especially given his utter domination of opponents (sans Gustafsson) unable to deal with his monstrous frame.

But Cormier’s stats mask an x-factor: the former Olympian amassed thirteen of his wins in the Heavyweight division. Which means Jones’ genetic edge shouldn’t pose a problem. Plus, Cormier trains with Cain Velasquez. For years. They are best friends, and I’ve watched them go at it. Holy shit, how these everyday wars must’ve evolved Cormier’s cage skills—getting off the fence, controlling perhaps the strongest man in the sport, avoiding takedowns.

So much to mull. Even Gustafsson chimed in:

"It's an interesting matchup,” the Swede said, “Both are great athletes and it's going to be a tough fight for sure. But Jones has his height and reach advantage over DC, so I think that will be the key thing in this fight. I think Jones by decision.”

Though I empathize with Gustafsson, and can’t wait to watch him battle the victor, I’m not feeling his prognostication skills. What does he know of dramatic structure, and plot twists… Well, ok, he knows how that deus ex machina often plunges from the sky, intervenes and leaves us in the rafters gasping, wondering what’s to come in the fifth act of this tragedy, or triumph, depending on which fighter you stake.

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