One of his leading media defenders, Ann Coulter, said Trump is the only Republican with a chance to win the White House. Why? She sees him as the great “white hope” for white people, the key voting group in her mind for the GOP. Based on Trump’s campaign, he seems to agree. They view themselves as the vanguards of a new white identity, rooted in the nation’s changing demographics. They claim Trumpism offers a special appeal to millions of white Americans who didn’t vote in 2012 or 2008. They claim Trump’s appeal has motivated millions of white Democrats to cross party lines to vote in this year’s GOP primaries.

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They appear focused on the type of backlash Sen. Barry Goldwater, a Republican, predicted in 1964, when President Lyndon Johnson supported path-breaking Civil Rights Legislation. Prior to becoming the GOP presidential nominee that year, Goldwater had supported similar civil rights legislation. But Goldwater voted against Johnson’s landmark bill on alleged constitutional grounds. Most GOP lawmakers backed it. Goldwater won five Southern states that year, but he lost all the key GOP strongholds across the United States long responsible for the party’s presidential strength and got crushed on Election Day.

With all due respect to Professor Sabato: Donald Trump will not win Virginia this November if Republicans are foolish enough to nominate him for president. Sabato’s Crystal Ball also sees only a minor defection from normally GOP-leaning voters in states Mitt Romney carried in 2012. Unless Trump changes his strategy, the good professor will prove too cautious on Trump’s political toxicity here, too. Virginia has recent experience with nominees with great appeal to an insular party minority but little attraction to the wider electorate.

In 2013, Virginia Republicans nominated E.W. Jackson for lieutenant governor. Jackson shared some of Trump’s characteristics. He campaigned proudly as politically incorrect. He had never previously held public office (although he ran unsuccessfully for the GOP’s Senate nomination in 2012). And many openly wondered whether Jackson had the temperament to hold statewide office.

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Jackson won the nomination on the force of personality. Going into the nominating convention, the pundits dismissed him as a sure loser against well-known, better-funded, more experienced candidates with establishment backing. But Jackson delivered a take-no-prisoners convention speech. His blunt style electrified the crowd. One of the authors attended and can attest to the growing excitement sweeping across the crowd as Jackson spoke. The anti-establishment crowd found a seemingly true anti-politician.

No amount of hard-nosed analysis about Jackson’s verbal gaffes, controversial policy positions, lack of qualifications or his dismal showing in the 2012 Senate primary would change his supporters’ minds. They were convinced Jackson could win back Democratic voters. What happened?

After a few early campaign mistakes, he never had a chance.

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On Election Day, he failed to get any usually Democratic votes. His obvious problems cost at least 10 percent of the normally Republican vote. We were surprised the defections weren’t higher. Jackson amazingly managed to get 44.5 percent statewide. He apparently benefited from close races for governor and attorney general.

This year, Trump will have no such good fortune. He will lead the Republican ticket to the gallows. Trump says Virginians love him because he owns wonderful properties in the state. He underestimates us.

He makes valid points about economic dislocation, points the GOP has ducked or dismissed for more than a decade. But Trumpism, boiled down, is as bad for the commonwealth as it is for the nation. In the last two presidential elections, Virginia’s results have been the best mirror of the nationwide vote.