Andrew Wachtel is concerned about Turkey's "death spiral" into authoritarianism and an economic meltdown. Terror attacks, an attempted coup and a crackdown on journalists, opponents and state enemies made 2016 a turbulent year for Turkey. Uncertainty and instability had taken a toll on the country's tourism, which "previously accounted for more than 10% of Turkey’s GDP."

The author warns against a "collapse" of Turkey's economy, which would trigger a massive influx of refugees to Europe. Its "downward spiral" is worrisome, because of its geostrategic location in a highly volatile region. As relationship with the West frays, Turkey - a NATO member - acts independently of its Western allies and cooperates with Putin, who sees the military alliance as a threat to Russia and makes no secret of destabilising the EU.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power in 2003 in the wake of a landslide victory by the Islamist party, the AKP. Turkey was championed as a democratic beacon in the Middle East. To his supporters Erdogan had brought them years of economic growth, but to his critics he is an autocratic leader intolerant of dissent who harshly silences opponents.

But Erdogan has been unable "to reconcile traditional Islam and modernizing Western tendencies," and deal with its war on the PKK as well as the conflict in Syria. In just a few years, his populist hyperbole, deliberately instilled fear and paranoia had accelerated the country’s descent into Islamism and a police state that the Turks have hoped they had left behind in the dark days following the 1980 coup.

The author sees three decisions by Erdoğan that "have also contributed to Turkey’s vulnerability to terrorism." First, it was a mistake that Erdogan - obsessed with Assad's removal - let fighters of all stripes use Turkey's border with Syria as their transit corridor. They are "as hostile to Turkey as they are to Assad." Second, Turkey's crackdowns on Kurdish insurgency have been widely criticised by human rights organisations. Erdogan was lauded for reaching out to the Kurds earlier in his presidency and had "managed, more or less, to halt active hostilities."

The worst mistake was Erdogan's purge of real and perceived enemies after the failed coup last July. Among the tens of thousands arrested were members of the military and security services. This has "severely weakened the capacity "of Turkey’s defense. The author makes Erdoğan aware of "Joseph Stalin’s purge of the Red Army’s officer corps in the late 1930s, which left the Soviet Union almost defenseless, opening the way for Adolf Hitler to attack in 1941." The blaming of outside forces (foreigners) for domestic problems, attacks on the media, the "us versus them" rhetoric all sound familiar to Russians. Turkey’s government-controlled media and large swaths of the population see the nefarious hand of the West in their country’s unraveling.

Erdogan's dream may soon come true. Turkey's parliament approved a new draft constitution paving the way for a presidential system in January 2017, in a move which would significantly cement his powers. The bill will be put to a referendum and become law if more than 50% of voters back it. This move could usher in authoritarian rule, and amounts to a power grab.

The author says, "not everyone is distressed by Turkey’s misfortune. Russian President Vladimir Putin is probably more than pleased with the country’s transformation." Indeed, the club of autocrats expands, with Putin creating a "brand of modern dictatorship, which relies on disinformation and the trappings of democracy to bolster the ruler’s personal power." In America "Trump seems equally enamored of Putin. " Time will tell whether the US - "with its economic strength, relative geographical isolation, and strong institutions - is better protected than Turkey against the influence of Putin’s malign example."

