The Big Ten regular season has ended, with just a hair's breadth proving the difference between Indiana as outright champions and a four-way tie. The tournament starts Thursday, and here is the bracket. Ken Pomeroy has been doing projections of odds for the various conference tournaments (that link is to the Big XII tournament; Big Ten isn't up yet but it should appear on his blog soon) with his rating system, and I will do the same (for the Big Ten) with mine.

Bracket Probabilities

Probabilities are listed first by the basic method, then by margin-aware. Northwestern is given credit for partial home-court advantage.

Team Quarterfinals Semifinals Final Champion #1 Indiana 100% 73.38% / 80.68% 45.61% / 53.53% 28.06% / 36.27% #2 Ohio State 100% 82.89% / 88.48% 44.10% / 51.28% 20.68% / 22.06% #3 Michigan State 100% 78.46% / 76.39% 45.72% / 39.84% 22.17% / 16.27% #4 Wisconsin 100% 37.97% / 31.02% 13.34% / 8.28% 5.33% / 3.01% #5 Michigan 92.04% / 95.96% 60.88% / 68.60% 30.80% / 31.55% 17.24% / 18.36% #6 Iowa 65.68% / 74.24% 16.45% / 20.58% 5.53% / 6.41% 1.41% / 1.40% #7 Purdue 51.95% / 64.68% 9.17% / 8.74% 1.95% / 1.68% 0.32% / 0.19% #8 Illinois 47.86% / 37.26% 12.33% / 5.40% 4.57% / 1.43% 1.67% / 0.39% #9 Minnesota 52.14% / 62.74% 14.30% / 13.92% 5.58% / 5.19% 2.14% / 1.98% #10 Nebraska 48.05% / 35.32% 7.94% / 2.78% 1.59% / 0.33% 0.25% / 0.022% #11 Northwestern 34.32% / 25.76% 5.10% / 3.03% 1.12% / 0.45% 0.17% / 0.042% #12 Penn State 7.96% / 4.04% 1.15% / 0.39% 0.10% / 0.016% 0.011% / 1 in 102k

Nothing real shocking there: Indiana's a favorite, but not overwhelmingly so, and OSU, MSU, and Michigan all have reasonable shots at the title as well. Indiana is a bit unlucky that Minnesota and Illinois fell to the 8 and 9, so they're guaranteed a mid-tier opponent in the quarterfinals.

A quick look at what's at stake for everyone: