Making it to the NFL playoffs is no easy task, especially when you’re in a competitive division like the NFC South.

If the Atlanta Falcons are going to repeat as division champions in 2017, it will likely come down to winning a few key games at critical junctures of the regular season.

According to a simulation by ESPN’s Football Power Index, the team’s most important game of the year will come Week 12 when the Falcons host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The main reason is Atlanta will likely have a lot to lose in that particular matchup.

It’s more about what the Falcons stand to lose than what they’ll gain. If Atlanta can’t avoid a home loss against what FPI projects as the weakest team in the division, it would lower the Falcons’ playoff probability to 43.7 percent.

FPI projects Atlanta currently has a 59 percent chance of making the playoffs, so that would represent a drop of more than 15 percent.

Losing home games to division opponents puts enormous pressure on a team to win road games, which inevitably drags down their chances of producing a solid win/loss record for the year.

Then again, losing to Tampa Bay at home is exactly how the Falcons began their 2016 season.

Jameis Winston and the Bucs ran up the score in the second and third quarters and escaped the Georgia Dome with a 31-24 win. Atlanta rebounded by crushing the Bucs 43-28 on the road in November. The season opener turned out to be the only division game the Falcons lost all year.

Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see what the playoff picture looks like come Week 12.