BENGALURU: With the countdown to the state assembly polls having begun,

and his cohorts have decided not to unleash their most potent weapon: findings of the

Formally christened ‘Socio-Economic and Educational Survey’, the caste census was intended to help Siddaramaiah play the potentially explosive game of caste politics with ease. But a blunt assessment of the current political happenings -- especially in the backdrop of the

-- indicates that any attempt to make public the caste census report could only boomerang on the Congress.

Not ruling out that probability, a senior Congress minister admitted: “The caste census is turning out to be a double-edged sword for us, and risks sparking a backlash on the poll turf. For now, it is in cold storage.”

But the big question is: What forced Siddaramaiah & Co to keep the findings under wraps?

“There are multiple factors at play,” political scientist Muzaffar H Assadi said, adding: “Siddaramaiah realised that disrupting the caste calculation during poll time will yield harsh political outcomes.”

In fact, selective leaks of caste census findings have triggered a cold war between and among caste groups in the past year. Lingayats and Vokkaligas seethed in anger and spewed venom against Siddaramaiah as the census reportedly demolished their ‘dominant’ status by pointing out that Dalits and Muslims have a sizable population.

A section of Lingayats accuses Siddaramaiah of using caste census findings to trigger a battle between Veerashaivas and Lingayats. Ditto with Vokkaligas: A section of the community leaders fear that the census findings are being used to separate Kunchatigas (a Vokkaliga sub-sect in Tumakuru, Chitradurga and Kolar districts).

Finding himself under the angry gaze of voters from these two dominant communities, Siddaramaiah seems to have realized that any further attempt to leverage the issue will only cause more harm than good.

“Already, both communities feel the census has underreported their respective populations. Siddaramaiah cannot afford to intensify their anger by acknowledging the findings,” explained political analyst S Mahadeva Prakash.

FEAR OF DIVIDING DALITS

However, what is more interesting is the impact of caste census on the Dalit block. In fact, the leaked census report has widened differences between the Madigas-led Left Group and Chalavadis-led Right Group within Scheduled Castes (SCs), with each group demanding a lion’s share in political representation.

Left Group leaders argue that though they are numerically larger, leaders from the Right Group have made gains at their cost. “Making public the caste census at this point will prove disastrous for Siddaramaiah as it will split the Dalit block, which he is banking heavily on. It will be like the Congress shooting itself in the foot in the run-up to the polls. Moreover, there has been tremendous pressure from Dalit leaders such as Mallikarjun Kharge and G Parameshwara within the Congress, not to release the census report,” said Prakash.

BICKERING IN BACKWARD CLASSES

The caste census has also threatened to erode Siddaramaiah’s popularity among the backward classes – a vital cog in the Congress wheel. With the leaked caste census pegging the population of Kurabas (Siddaramaiah’s community) at around 45 lakh, there was fear developing among smaller castes about losing out to Kurubas in the 15% reservation under Category II A.

“Many smaller castes in the backward classes category see the census as a conspiracy against them,” said Prakash.

While a majority of Balija and Idiga community leaders feels isolated, Devangas, Vishwakarmas and Ganigas are identifying themselves with the BJP. “It is prudent for Siddaramaiah not to release the caste census as it will only expedite the process of smaller backward castes aligning with the BJP,” Prakash added.

POLITICS OF POLARISATION

While an increase in Muslim population (the leaked caste census pegs it at 75 lakh) has brought cheer to the Congress, the reality is that it might sound a death-knell for the party in the communally sensitive coastal region. “If Siddaramaiah acknowledges that Muslims are a dominant community in the state, there will be clear-cut polarization in the coastal region as all Hindu castes will unite. Billavas and Mogaveeras of the coastal belt will rally behind the BJP if the caste census is out, and it will affect the Congress’ prospects in Dakshina Kannada, Udupi and Uttara Kannada. This could be one of the major factors that has deterred Siddaramaiah from releasing the caste census,” said Assadi.

This apart, the caste census will create more nuisance for the Congress on the eve of the polls as it will bring in new demands for political representation, based on changed caste arithmetic. “Caste groups, which were on the political periphery, would start demanding more opportunities, quoting their increased numerical strength. This will bring a new form of politics or create space for contradictions and confrontations during ticket distribution for candidates,” sources in the Congress said.