10:26

Peter Dutton as prime minister would be less preferred as PM than the Labor leader, Bill Shorten, a second poll released today shows.

While the two-party preferred polls have put Labor in the ascendency for almost two years, the albatross around the opposition leader’s neck has been his stubborn unpopularity compared with the man about to lose the prime ministership, Malcolm Turnbull.

Dutton as prime minister would reverse that: Shorten would be more popular in every state, and across all age groups, except those over 65, who narrowly favour Dutton, Roy Morgan snap polling from Wednesday shows.

Part of the rationale behind the Dutton for PM putsch was as an attempt to buttress the swing seats in Queensland – in danger after a disastrous showing in the Longman byelection.

The Liberal MP Scott Buchholz, who holds the safe Queensland seat of Wright, told Guardian Australia that Dutton is popular in his community, which is “ground zero for One Nation” because his record allowed the Coalition to argue they had “stopped the boats”.



But polling suggests the conventional wisdom that Dutton “saves the furniture” in Queensland is wrong: he is not more popular in his home state.

And the numbers confirm that south of the Tweed river – where most Australians live – the hopeful new prime minister has a significant problem.

Both Victoria and NSW have state elections within the next year – Victoria in November and NSW next March – and the ascension of a hardline right leader is being seen

Allied to that, in the context of a looming federal election – which could be sparked immediately by resignations from a parliament where the government holds just a one-seat majority – Dutton is viewed by many as a liability.

The poll compared Labor leader Bill Shorten with Dutton and showed Shorten ahead in every state.