Illustration: Jim Pavlidis They want to give themselves someone to blame if some boats manage to penetrate the Operation Sovereign Borders edifice and sully the most unambiguous of the Coalition's modest list of achievements, stopping the boats. It is why Turnbull and Dutton made such a big deal of the thought bubble Dutton floated back in mid-August, with the obligatory leaks to the News Corp tabloids ahead of a prime ministerial press conference on a quiet Sunday morning, complete with the backdrop of the Aussie flag. And it is why a government that is struggling to implement the thin agenda it took to the double dissolution election will hammer this issue when Parliament resumes on Monday. The giveaway has been the abject failure of either Turnbull or Dutton to articulate a coherent argument for a policy so utterly at odds with the values of fairness this country has championed, beyond an Abbott-like mantra about sending a message to the people smugglers.

Turnbull has failed articulate a coherent argument for a policy at odds with values of fairness. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen Since Sunday's media conference, Dutton has claimed the smugglers will be "rubbing their hands" if any resettlement agreement for those on Manus and Nauru enables refugees to "come back to Australia through the back door on some tourist visa". But is he really suggesting refugees would pay their life savings to a smuggler in order to spend several years separated from loved ones in harsh conditions in remote detention camps before being resettled in a third country of somebody else's choosing, all because, one day down a very long track, they would have the opportunity to visit Australia? Dutton has claimed the smugglers will be "rubbing their hands" if any resettlement agreement for those on Manus and Nauru enables refugees to "come back to Australia through the back door on some tourist visa". No, Mr Dutton. The product the smugglers are selling is permanent settlement in Australia and they have been thwarted for more than 800 days by two policies that have bipartisan support: turning back boats and offshore processing, with no prospect of permanent settlement in Australia.

The missing ingredient in the policy is not more punishment for its own sake, but a genuine effort to build a regional protection framework that responds to the world's worst refugee crisis since World War II. The Immigration Minister has also asserted that those who come on tourist or temporary entry visas could claim protection and instigate costly legal proceedings, when this would not be possible under existing law. And he has suggested any who are resettled in New Zealand would migrate to Australia at the first opportunity, when the truth is that all but a handful of the scores of refugees who were resettled in New Zealand under John Howard's Pacific Solution are still there: proud, happy, loyal and productive Kiwis. This is the insurance policy you have when the policy you are protecting is as full of holes as a leaky boat; when secrecy and ulterior motives are so deeply intertwined with the stated aim of preventing deaths at sea that plain speaking and transparency are impossible. It will go unchallenged by those Liberal MPs who find it repugnant because, quite rightly, they are more focused on ending the ordeal of those on Manus and Nauru than opposing a silly idea that can be remedied by legislative amendment down the track, like the one that required asylum seekers to pay for their detention upon their release.

If this is the price of ending the pain and anguish of around 2000 souls who have been in limbo on Nauru and Manus for more than three years, it is a price they will readily pay. Whether Shorten will blink is another question altogether. The Labor leader was briefed on the ban by Turnbull after it was announced on Sunday, but given no rationale beyond the need to keep discouraging "agile" people smugglers, and certainly no heads up on third country resettlement for those on Nauru and Manus. Those arrangements appear to be all but nailed down, and could be announced within days of Tuesday's US election, assuming sanity prevails and Donald Trump is not elected. What countries are involved has been a closely guarded secret and what the arrangements will mean for those who have refused to have their claims processed on Manus Island, and those whose claims have been rejected, is unclear. Shorten's first instinct was to brand the ban "over the top" and signal that Labor will oppose it in the Parliament. "If Malcolm Turnbull wants to try and trade away the last sliver of his dignity, the last shred of his political integrity for a handful of One Nation preferences, good luck to him," Shorten told a gathering on Thursday night. "We're better than that."

Shorten has given himself wriggle room to support the visa ban if the government can demonstrate that agreements with third countries to resettle those on Manus and Nauru hinge on the Australian Parliament legislating it. This would seem unlikely, given the New Zealand Prime Minister John Key's declaration that "we have got no intention of having separate classes of New Zealand citizens". Why would they? Clearly, the Labor leader believes he has the ascendancy over Turnbull, whose embrace of this idea will only further alienate many who invested so much faith and hope in his prime ministership. Shorten's response, when Turnbull and Dutton apply the blowtorch next week, will be a measure of that belief. Michael Gordon is The Age's political editor.