CLEVELAND -- Competitive elections for Ohio governor are about as common as Donald Trump telling the truth.

In the nine gubernatorial elections since 1982, only one – Gov. John Kasich’s two-point win over incumbent Ted Strickland in 2010 – has been even remotely close.

The winning margin in six of the nine – 1982, 1986, 1994, 2002, 2006 and 2014 - has ranged from 19 percent, in 2002, to nearly 47 percent in George Voinovich’s record-shattering re-election win of 1994.

With the election of Ohio’s 70th governor just days off, the one certainty is there will be no blowout. Almost as certain is that the contest between Republican Mike DeWine and Democratic Richard Cordray will be a nail-biter.

Private polls done by candidates and political parties – historically more sophisticated and accurate than many of the publicly released surveys – have shown the race within the margin of error for months.

To understand the enormity of the stakes in elections for Ohio governor, consider this: Candidates for governor always run in the same years when voters also choose a state attorney general, auditor, secretary of state and treasurer. In those last nine elections for governor, the political party that won the governor’s office won 33 of the 36 elections for down-ballot offices.

In both reality and theory, Cordray is the better candidate in this election, as the gubernatorial debates have tended to prove.

If Cordray loses by a razor-thin margin, his support for Issue 1, the constitutional amendment that would reduce the sentences for some drug crimes, will be among the culprits. Cordray’s position allowed DeWine to spend millions portraying his opponent as someone who would flood Ohio’s streets with murderous drug dealers.

Exaggeration in political advertising is a bipartisan sport. But DeWine has a long history of waging campaigns that demolish facts and border on mean-spirited. As one 40-year observer of Ohio politics put it, “Mike DeWine always runs on a muddy track.”

In this election, as fact-checking of his ads has clearly shown, DeWine has savaged the truth. It’s no coincidence DeWine’s media strategist is Rex Elsass, leader of a 1990s group of GOP operatives in Columbus known as the “nasty boys,” sleazy operatives who would resort to any filthy political trick imaginable in the interest of winning elections.

But Cordray’s most daunting problem in this campaign is one he can’t control: Ohio’s inexorable descent into red-state status, a development that has coincided with a stunning decline in its demographics related to education, workforce readiness, poverty and population.

What’s more, the astonishing number of right-wing extremists in the legislature is unlikely to be significantly reduced on Election Day. Cordray would obviously have more difficulty dealing with these extremists than DeWine.

Many, myself included, have suggested DeWine might be an effective governor. His deep understanding of state government is indeed an asset.

But nothing in DeWine’s recent past suggests he would be the type of leader that Ohio, and the nation, so desperately needs.

For all Gov. John Kasich’s personality shortcomings, and they are enormous, this governor has exhibited the courage to take a stand against the president’s unbridled racism, his not-so-subtle embrace of white supremacists.

Not once has Kasich backed down from criticizing Trump’s despicable condoning of, at times encouraging, violence against law-abiding citizens. Not once has DeWine done anything but back down.

And the entire nation is now living with the results of the breathtaking cowardice of Republican officeholders.

If the next governor, be it Cordray or DeWine, fails to challenge a president who traffics in hate, Ohio voters and opinion leaders should view that as a disqualifying dereliction of duty.

So, who wins?

If women and young people figure out their children’s futures have never been more at risk – and act to save them - Cordray will win.

If the typical turnout model of off-year elections in Ohio doesn’t change dramatically, DeWine will win.

And that will allow Ohio to go about its business of comfortably living in the past, as the world passes it by.

Brent Larkin was The Plain Dealer's editorial director from 1991 until his retirement in 2009.

To reach Brent Larkin: blarkin@cleveland.com

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