There was neither breakdown nor breakthrough in this week’s dramatic negotiations with Iran over its nuclear ambitions. Instead, the two sides agreed on a seven-month extension to talk some more. If that sounds boring, it isn’t.

If we think of this as a playoff hockey game, it is now overtime. But the likelihood of a final shootout — either more military conflict in the Middle East or a historic new opening — is still ahead of us. Either way, we should know the result soon.

Still unresolved in the negotiations between Iran and the six-nation coalition representing the U.S., Europe and China are two key issues: how to ensure Iran can develop peaceful nuclear energy without building a bomb, and the speed with which international sanctions against Iran would be lifted.

In the days since Monday’s deadline was extended, sources from the various sides provided insights about the negotiations. The bottom line is that an agreement appears within reach.

Here are four things to watch as this drama enters its final stage:

A conclusion is likely in weeks, not months

Although the talks were extended until June, there seems to be considerable confidence that an agreement can be wrapped up within a couple of months. If not by then, a deal will probably not happen at all. Even though negotiations have gone on for nine months, there was high drama in Vienna as Monday’s deadline approached. Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, was said to believe that an agreement could have been reached had they remained in Vienna a few more days.

The biggest U.S. risk is Republican-Israeli axis

The political landscape in Washington will change dramatically in late January when the Republicans assume control of the U.S. Senate. That will weaken President Barack Obama’s ability to strike a deal. Egged on by the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu, which distrusts Obama almost as much as Iran, the Republicans are already threatening to pass new sanctions against Iran which would, if successful, torpedo negotiations. Although Obama would likely have the votes to veto any such legislation, all sides in the Vienna talks seemed focused on getting this done before Republicans rule all of the U.S. Congress.

Time is running out in Iran

If Obama is battling with hardliners in the United States, a similar and even more unpredictable drama is unfolding within Iran. The international sanctions against Iran have been crushing, but this is only one reason Iran is at the negotiating table. Its reformist president, Hassan Rouhani, clearly believes that Iran’s international isolation must end. But there are powerful hardliners who are challenging him. Rouhani responded to this week’s developments with optimism, but Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say, was more restrained. The worry is that if this agreement is not reached soon, Khamenei and the hardliners will lose patience with Rouhani.

Will Canada’s government finally act in Canada’s interests?

Iran’s bitter conflict with the United States has been a dark and menacing cloud over the Middle East since 1979. But if there is an agreement with Iran, the entire outlook may change. Not only could it ensure greater stability, it may also usher in an era of growing openness and tolerance within Iran itself.

With this historic turning point possibly ahead of us, Canada finds itself in the worst possible position to build on these changes in the interests of Canadians. Not only has the Canadian government cut its ties with Iran, it has squandered Canada’s reputation as a global bridge-builder by working feverishly as Israel’s obsequious cheerleader.

Surely, a historic agreement between Iran and the West should be incentive for Canada to resume a constructive role in the region.

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Beyond the endless talk about “process,” let us remember what is happening here. Although there is still a multitude of ways for the world to screw this up, we seem to be very close to making peace with Iran. This would have been unthinkable until very recently. Even though war is fascinating to some, diplomacy still has the power to change.

Tony Burman, former head of CBC News and Al Jazeera English, teaches journalism at Ryerson University. Reach him @TonyBurman or at tony.burman@gmail.com .

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