I’m proposing a brand new hypothesis. Here it is:

The so called greenhouse effect is nothing but an artifact of geothermal, flipped upside down. We can measure geothermal quite easily:

Geothermal Emission = Upwelling Longwave Radiation – (Downwelling Shortwave Radiation – Upwelling Shortwave) + Latent Heat Flux + Sensible Heat Flux

In the language of NCEP Reanalysis, the formula is:

geo = ulwrf – (dswrf – uswrf) + lhtfl + shtfl

Program: fluxes.sh:

# source flux.sh # Zoe Phin 2020/02/02 F=(0 ulwrf dswrf uswrf lhtfl shtfl) O=(0 3201.5 3086.5 3131.5 856.5 2176.5) require() { sudo apt install nco; } download() { b="ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Datasets/ncep.reanalysis2.derived/gaussian_grid" for i in ${F[*]}; do wget -O $i.nc -c $b/$i.sfc.mon.mean.nc; done } extract() { for i in {1..5}; do echo $i of 5 >&2 ncks --trd -HC ${F[$i]}.nc -v ${F[$i]} | awk -F[=\ ] -vO=${O[$i]} ' NF != 0 { W[$4]+=$8/10+O } END { for (L in W) printf "%07.3f %07.3f

", L, W[L]/94464}' | sort -n > .w$i done } geo() { paste .w1 .w2 .w3 .w4 .w5 | tr ' ' '\t' | cut -f 1,2,4,6,8,10 | awk ' function S(x) { return cos(x*atan2(0,-1)/180) } { A+=$2*S($1); B+=$3*S($1); C+=$4*S($1); D+=$5*S($1); E+=$6*S($1); G=$2+$5+$6-($3-$4); F+=G*S($1); print $0" "G } END { X=60.1647 printf "

Average:%07.3f %07.3f %07.3f %07.3f %07.3f %07.3f

", A/X, B/X, C/X, D/X, E/X, F/X }' }

Run it:

> source fluxes.sh > require > download > extract > geo

Result:

-88.542 160.572 130.617 109.567 001.947 -52.117 89.352 -86.653 169.731 129.611 107.707 002.169 -52.952 97.044 -84.753 179.068 129.526 106.648 004.162 -53.255 107.097 -82.851 183.643 130.241 108.115 003.545 -49.320 115.742 -80.947 184.386 132.014 110.074 002.310 -44.688 120.068 -79.043 186.170 133.439 111.061 002.894 -43.264 123.422 -77.139 192.359 134.189 106.598 004.336 -39.082 130.022 -75.235 201.453 135.480 107.015 004.942 -37.415 140.515 -73.331 213.577 137.236 107.364 006.520 -36.813 153.412 -71.426 230.078 138.094 105.162 009.339 -37.852 168.633 -69.522 249.329 137.100 092.216 013.147 -29.933 187.659 -67.617 266.633 135.069 077.029 017.929 -21.059 205.463 -65.713 282.318 134.510 068.697 018.535 -10.248 224.792 -63.808 296.958 129.902 042.475 022.244 -00.262 231.513 -61.903 307.732 128.396 029.934 025.698 -00.212 234.756 -59.999 315.924 128.434 021.671 030.174 -00.973 238.362 -58.094 322.948 128.718 014.388 034.865 -01.690 241.793 -56.189 328.903 129.930 010.542 038.852 -04.608 243.759 -54.285 334.101 132.116 009.320 041.700 -08.192 244.813 -52.380 339.183 134.906 009.415 044.105 -10.608 247.189 -50.475 344.712 138.185 009.791 046.719 -11.703 251.334 -48.571 351.177 142.292 010.109 051.982 -10.207 260.769 -46.666 358.411 147.196 010.329 058.012 -07.006 272.550 -44.761 366.359 152.414 010.643 066.823 -03.668 287.743 -42.856 375.462 158.630 011.047 077.603 002.155 307.637 -40.952 384.799 165.580 011.384 090.318 007.026 327.947 -39.047 392.785 173.228 011.964 099.120 009.369 340.010 -37.142 399.903 181.187 013.021 103.336 011.744 346.817 -35.237 405.908 189.572 013.564 105.950 012.320 348.170 -33.333 411.725 196.549 015.631 104.388 016.865 352.060 -31.428 417.538 202.463 017.816 105.123 018.885 356.899 -29.523 422.830 207.009 019.005 109.663 018.734 363.223 -27.619 427.894 210.176 019.605 113.762 018.905 369.990 -25.714 432.643 212.739 019.920 117.687 019.344 376.855 -23.809 436.710 216.051 021.043 121.615 018.673 381.990 -21.904 440.565 219.806 020.820 127.532 018.441 387.552 -20.000 444.026 222.918 019.940 133.700 018.789 393.537 -18.095 446.273 224.950 019.483 139.782 016.592 397.180 -16.190 448.825 225.921 018.564 144.738 016.498 402.704 -14.286 451.648 226.038 017.898 150.638 014.189 408.335 -12.381 454.276 226.553 017.043 151.484 013.125 409.375 -10.476 456.781 226.559 016.880 148.830 012.093 408.025 -08.571 458.403 225.052 016.935 142.993 012.168 405.447 -06.667 459.008 221.504 017.089 136.852 010.468 401.913 -04.762 459.537 216.769 016.681 127.963 009.479 396.891 -02.857 458.436 210.836 016.090 118.484 006.789 388.963 -00.952 458.345 205.033 015.510 108.482 005.658 382.962 000.952 459.718 198.242 015.232 111.546 006.438 394.692 002.857 462.011 191.416 014.820 117.553 007.996 410.964 004.762 462.380 187.711 014.821 119.988 008.598 418.076 006.667 462.323 190.948 015.854 122.820 009.177 419.226 008.571 462.349 199.546 016.969 128.123 009.886 417.781 010.476 462.901 210.785 017.116 130.262 013.019 412.513 012.381 462.791 220.387 018.292 135.495 011.610 407.801 014.286 462.307 225.155 020.657 132.269 016.258 406.336 016.190 459.679 224.369 024.034 126.352 015.114 400.810 018.095 455.597 221.616 027.286 120.399 012.692 394.358 020.000 451.165 218.953 028.889 114.864 012.807 388.772 021.904 447.301 216.573 029.350 110.086 014.447 384.611 023.809 443.590 215.060 029.035 107.981 016.573 382.119 025.714 438.637 213.123 028.970 101.096 020.691 376.271 027.619 430.920 212.546 029.715 093.543 021.592 363.224 029.523 422.402 214.091 030.752 089.999 025.102 354.164 031.428 413.805 214.585 030.174 091.357 027.343 348.094 033.333 405.764 214.814 028.743 095.340 026.950 341.983 035.237 397.747 212.258 028.421 093.293 025.672 332.875 037.142 392.201 206.275 026.668 091.617 027.492 331.703 039.047 386.381 198.060 028.017 087.172 024.349 327.859 040.952 378.644 191.873 027.470 074.502 022.918 311.661 042.856 369.978 186.137 027.338 063.643 017.247 292.069 044.761 362.398 179.232 028.366 058.155 013.394 283.081 046.666 354.823 172.723 031.027 054.427 009.174 276.728 048.571 347.668 166.185 032.164 054.681 004.311 272.639 050.475 342.281 159.203 030.852 055.521 000.441 269.892 052.380 338.019 152.781 029.620 057.063 -04.077 267.844 054.285 334.264 146.661 028.962 056.201 -04.137 268.629 056.189 330.580 141.411 028.965 055.405 -04.194 269.345 058.094 325.893 137.501 030.894 053.379 -03.215 269.450 059.999 318.476 134.071 034.188 048.998 -04.704 262.887 061.903 309.515 130.940 038.740 045.262 -13.202 249.375 063.808 301.891 127.182 041.305 040.833 -15.629 241.218 065.713 294.212 123.862 044.413 034.349 -18.023 231.089 067.617 287.976 121.268 048.410 028.725 -16.735 227.108 069.522 282.844 120.001 052.192 023.153 -09.531 228.657 071.426 278.003 118.977 060.422 021.281 -10.585 230.144 073.331 271.879 117.964 066.545 015.967 -11.538 224.889 075.235 266.203 115.823 069.800 013.482 -10.869 222.793 077.139 259.555 116.130 078.981 008.960 -16.821 214.545 079.043 254.037 115.012 084.006 006.061 -21.808 207.284 080.947 250.528 113.843 087.865 005.230 -24.534 205.246 082.851 247.531 113.681 093.175 002.866 -27.892 201.999 084.753 247.433 112.121 093.849 002.508 -27.153 204.516 086.653 247.837 110.516 092.525 002.951 -27.169 205.628 088.542 247.890 109.704 092.062 002.538 -27.169 205.617 Average:396.983 187.114 026.813 091.591 007.370 335.643

Columns:

Column 1 lat Latitude Column 2 ulwrf Upwelling Longwave Radiation Column 3 dswrf Downwelling Shortware Radiation Column 4 uswrf Upwelling Shortwave Radiation Column 5 lhtfl Latent Heat Flux Column 6 shtfl Sensible Heat Flux Column 7 geo Geothermal

The value all the way on the bottom right: 335.643, is our geothermal emission in W/m² (for whole Earth). This means that geothermal supplies a temperature of:

(335.643/5.67e-8)^0.25-273.16 = 4.22°C

Hmm, If only there was some way to reaffirm this via the scientific literature…

Sure looks like geothermal delivers at least 0 degrees celsius. Our calculation is slightly off, but keep in mind that Sensible and Latent Heat is not directly measured by satellite but approximated via satellite data and some physical assumptions. Also, these geotherm diagram have been around for decades and it’s possible they are just sticking to a convention, while the actual measured surface T has changed.

It appears that everyone in geophysics already knows the truth. It’s only climate “scientists” who think greenhouse gases raise temperature, and without them the surface would be ~-18°C. Nope, without GHGs or even the Sun, it would be at least 0°C.

Geothermal and Solar completely explain the surface temperature and the remaining energy that goes into the atmosphere. No silly greenhouse effect necessary.

This is just a teaser to get people thinking. More to follow. Subscribe and stay tuned.

Love, -Zoe