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Sometimes, it seems that Vancouver municipal politicians are living in a parallel universe.

It’s apparent in the debate over whether to spend $6 million to turn Point Grey Road into a mostly car-free enclave by shunting thousands of vehicles onto nearby streets.

So far, no one has publicly suggested that the minister responsible for housing, Rich Coleman, might respond to such a move by not funding the city’s temporary HEAT shelters this winter.

I expect that Coleman will argue that if city council has $12 million to promote cycling—including a $6-million expenditure on a bike-share program—it can most certainly find some extra money to house the homeless.

That's one byproduct of living in a parallel universe.

Art gallery reflects similar thinking

This isn’t the only example of city politicians demonstrating delusional thinking. It’s also evident in their response to a proposed new Vancouver Art Gallery.

In April, they all voted in favour of a staff recommendation to grant a 99-year lease on a 1.8-acre parcel of city land on West Georgia Street across from the Sandman Hotel.

This is conditional on the federal government contributing $100 million and on the province topping up an earlier $50-million donation with another $50 million by April 30, 2015.

Nobody on council wants to admit that both senior levels of government are broke. Instead, they voted for a motion that assumed the feds and the province would open up their vaults.

The view from Ottawa

Let’s start with the federal government. Last week, Ottawa reported a $2.7-billion deficit in the first two months of this fiscal year, up 50 percent over the same period a year ago. Last year’s federal deficit has been estimated at $25.7 billion.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has promised a balanced budget by 2015, which is expected to be a federal election year. How likely is he to cough up $100 million for a Vancouver Art Gallery by April 30, 2015, given the following facts:

• His party has only one MP in Vancouver, the hapless Wai Young. She represents the city’s most ethnically diverse riding, Vancouver South, where voters are not clamouring for a new art gallery.

• With the current polling numbers, the Conservatives might only win one of six Vancouver seats that will be up for grabs: the new riding of Vancouver Granville.

• The senior B.C. minister, James Moore, has been been transferred to industry from Canadian heritage, which means he’s no longer the czar of arts funding.

If Harper were to make any large capital investment in Vancouver in advance of the election, it would more likely be for a new Kitsilano Coast Guard base. Its closure saves the feds about $700,000 per year, which is far less than the $100 million that city politicians want for an art gallery.

The view from Victoria

The city’s prospects may be even bleaker at the provincial level, where Premier Christy Clark and six other B.C Liberal candidates, including the health minister, were defeated in the May election.

Voters in Vancouver-Point Grey never trounced former premier Gordon Campbell. Nor did Vancouver residents ever deprive him of an NPA mayoral nomination, whereas Clark suffered this indignity in 2005.

In light of this, it’s safe to assume that the B.C. Liberal government will be far less Vancouvercentric in the future. There are only two Vancouver MLAs in cabinet.

The new minister responsible for the arts, Coralee Oakes, is from Quesnel. The minister responsible for tourism and job creation, Shirley Bond, is from Prince George. A new Vancouver art gallery likely won’t be anywhere near the top of their list of priorities

In addition, the premier has promised a balanced budget each year she’s in office. This is despite the revelation that last year’s provincial deficit exceeded $1.1 billion.

Is Clark going to cough up $50 million for a new art gallery in this environment? She won the election largely thanks to voters in the car-dependent Vancouver suburbs, Kamloops, the Okanagan, and the Prince George area.

The view from the suburbs

Meanwhile, Surrey council is demanding a $2.18-billion light-rail system connecting the city centre to Guildford, Newton, and Langley. This would promote an onslaught of real-estate development and could be justified on environmental and economic grounds.

The federal Conservatives might support a capital project like this, given their strength in the Fraser Valley.

Seriously, what are the chances of the B.C. Liberal and federal Conservative government putting a $300-million art gallery ahead of a new train in Surrey?

Anyone who has spent time in the Metro Vancouver boardroom already knows how hostile suburban mayors are toward another capital project in downtown Vancouver.

The city has received an $883-million convention centre and a $514-million stadium renovation. That's in addition to its 20 rapid-transit stations and a disproportionate share of provincial health and postsecondary-education funding.

Burnaby's Derek Corrigan, Surrey's Dianne Watts, Delta's Lois Jackson, and Coquitlam's Richard Stewart are going to blow a gasket if Vancouver winds up at the front of the line for another major government expenditure. That's not an appealing prospect for the federal Conservatives as they head toward an election.

The Emily Carr effect

Keep in mind that the B.C. Liberal government has already contributed $113 million to finance a new campus for Emily Carr University of Art + Design at False Creek Flats. The premier announced this with a caveat that the university will have to raise another $21 million to cover the anticipated $134-million cost

Meanwhile, council has told the Vancouver Art Gallery that in addition to the $200 million from the federal and provincial governments, it must raise $150 million from other sources.

This means that Emily Carr University of Art + Design will be competing with the Vancouver Art Gallery for private donations. That’s not a pleasant prospect for the university or for the premier, who wants a visible demonstration of her support for postsecondary education.

One of the university’s directors happens to be real-estate marketer Bob Rennie. He helped save Clark’s premiership by raising almost $1.8 million for the B.C. Liberals when many other businesspeople had turned their backs on her.

Rennie is also a vehement opponent of the new art gallery. Does anyone seriously believe that Clark will back this project when it will go head-to-head with the new Emily Carr campus that she's personally supported.

Vancouver city council should give its head a shake.

The view inside Vancouver City Hall

So what’s the real story? I suspect that the wunderkinds in the mayor’s office anticipated that a new NDP government would back a new art gallery. They can be forgiven for believing that Adrian Dix was going to become premier. Almost everyone else held the same opinion.

But my hunch is that all along, these backroom operators and senior city staff expected that there would be very little Conservative government support for a new art gallery before the next federal election. This provided the perfect opportunity to portray the mayor and council as friends of the arts at very little cost.

So they brought forward a staff report that would convey the impression that Vision Vancouver was gung ho for a new art gallery, even though this wasn't supported in the party platform.

The art gallery's fundraising deadline conveniently comes after the 2014 municipal election. So visual artists and others in the cultural community could be counted on to back Vision Vancouver during the next civic campaign for having the “guts” to support the art gallery.

Meanwhile, the federal election likely won’t occur until after the council-imposed art-gallery deadline of April 30, 2015. This will enable the city to pin the blame on the federal Conservatives if they fail to provide any funding.

The federal Liberals' viewpoint

Here’s where the suppositions get more interesting.

What if two or three members of council have already decided that they want to graduate to the political big leagues by running for Parliament in 2015?

They have to be very careful not to reveal these intentions if they plan to seek reelection at the city level in 2014.

Mayor Gregor Robertson has moved into the riding of Vancouver Quadra and is poised to challenge Joyce Murray for a federal Liberal nomination. Robertson is exactly the type of candidate Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is seeking to show that his party represents generational change.

If Robertson were to knock off Murray, it would rid Trudeau of his leading rival in the recent Liberal leadership race.

Now, consider Coun. Raymond Louie’s future. He’s been on council since 2002 and next year, he will become president of the Canadian Federation of Municipalities.

That’s the same springboard that Jack Layton used to jump from municipal to federal politics.

Louie is a New Democrat, but he shocked some in his party by endorsing Liberal incumbent Ujjal Dosanjh in Vancouver South in 2011. The same year, Louie also appeared at an educational forum with then-Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff at Langara.

It’s not out of the question that Louie could morph into a federal Liberal candidate in 2015, possibly in Vancouver South or even Vancouver Kingsway. This would also further Trudeau’s goal of promoting generational change.

Robertson and/or Louie could claim on the federal campaign trail that Harper has undermined culture in Vancouver by not getting behind a new art gallery. And Trudeau could endorse the proposal at a splashy fundraiser in downtown Vancouver.

This would solidify Trudeau's support with many of the city's financial heavyweights who appreciate the impact of a large federally funded capital project on the local economy.

If the Liberals were to capture four or five of the city's seats (everything with the exception of Vancouver East and possibly Vancouver Kingsway), the Trudeau government would have no trouble finding enough money to create a new downtown art gallery.

The NDP's response

A third member of council, Geoff Meggs, is a dark horse to emerge as the NDP candidate in Vancouver Centre in 2015, taking on veteran Liberal MP Hedy Fry. Redistribution has wiped out part of the upscale Fairview neighbourhood from Fry’s riding, making her more susceptible to an NDP challenge.

One of Meggs’s political allies, Neil Monckton, is president of the Vancouver-False Creek NDP constituency association. This gives him access to plenty of information about many downtown voters' preferences at the provincial level.

It's intriguing that Meggs—and not Mayor Robertson—appeared alongside Donald Trump to announce his new tower in downtown Vancouver. In and of itself, this may not be that significant, unless Meggs is trying to buff up his business credentials in advance of a run for higher office.

Meggs also spoke on behalf of city council at a public forum on the future of the Coast Guard base, which is a federal issue.

Supporting a new art gallery helps burnish his credentials as a supporter of culture. This is something he emphasized while seeking reelection to council in 2011. Voters in Vancouver Centre are some of B.C.'s strongest supporters of the arts.

So there you have it. The new art gallery is probably not likely to be approved by 2015. It's time that supporters and opponents started facing that reality.

However, Vancouver municipal politicians don’t want to admit this now.

Possibly, it's because it just might intrude on some people's plans to rely on this issue to get elected to a federal political job that pays nearly three times the wage of a city councillor and offers far greater prospects for fame and influence.

In the meantime, a prime city asset across from the Sandman Hotel remains fallow.