HUNTSVILLE, Alabama -- It's been two weeks since National Signing Day. Spring football practice is just around the corner, and recruiting websites have already moved on to 2013.

But to me, it's infinitely more interesting to look back.

In the midst of sifting through the office desk mess, I happened upon the preseason SuperPrep magazine from 2008. That's just long enough for the top prospects to either pan out or flame out.

Speaking of which, Tate Forcier is on the cover.

Since starting at quarterback at Michigan as a freshman, it's been a rough ride for the San Diego native. He was ruled academically ineligible for the 2011 Gator Bowl and was no longer enrolled after the semester break. A few weeks later, he announced his transfer to Miami, but that never happened. He then opted for San Jose State, but he has since withdrawn from school there, too.

His is just one of many roads that have turned rocky since the summer before his senior year of high school.

For every Matt Barkley (rated No. 1) and Aaron Murray (No. 3), there's a Garrett Gilbert (No. 5, who transferred from Texas) and Tyrik Rollison (No. 12, who went from Auburn to Sam Houston State to off the grid).

The success rate for top recruits and their transition to the college level typically falls below the career average of a Shaquille O'Neal trip to the foul line. In this case of skill positions, this group has fallen well short of that mark.

In this case, call it the Lane Kiffin Effect.

The top running back prospect going into the '08 prep season was Bryce Brown out of Wichita, Kan. (Trent Richardson ranked 29th, but to be fair, he was coming off a seven-game junior season). Brown became the crown jewel in Kiffin's one recruiting class.

But just like Kiffin, Brown was one-and-done. He rushed for a pedestrian 460 yards backing up Monterio Hardesty, then left the program. He wound up at Kansas State, sat out a year, ran the ball a grand total of three times and then quit again.

Recently, he applied for this year's NFL draft. The smart decisions just keep on coming, don't they?

At least he's never been arrested. In terms of top 50 overall prospects from that year who played tailback, Jaamal Berry (No. 4) is no longer on the Ohio State roster after a spate of incidents involving the authorities.

On the receiver side, Reuben Randle held up his end as the No. 1 prospect while playing at LSU. Players 2-6 are a different story.

No. 2 Logan Heastie came and went from West Virginia, No. 3 Marlin Brown has 28 catches in three years at Georgia, No. 4 Jheranie Boyd has 40 receptions (though 12 TDs) in the same time frame at North Carolina and No. 5 Kendall Kelly hasn't been on the field at Alabama.

Sixth-rated Nu'Keese Richardson deserves a paragraph all his own. He caught eight passes at Tennessee before being arrested for armed robbery as a freshman, went to Hampton, left, then to Coffeyville (Kan.) Community College, left, and then pondered going to Delta State, which didn't happen.

Yep. Kiffin again.

The receiver class wasn't totally a lost cause. Alshon Jeffrey (No. 13) had an excellent career at South Carolina.

Still, there were far more incompletions when it comes to wideouts.

It just proves the obvious when it comes to recruiting, and the celebrations that go with the classes that are signed the first Wednesday of each February.

Proceed with caution. Temper those expectations.

And keep your fingers crossed.

Contact Bill Bryant at bill.bryant@htimes.com or follow him on Twitter @willieb68