The months-long protests in Hong Kong could come to an end soon, according to strategist David Roche, who said they will "be settled or crushed" before October 1 — the 70th anniversary of China's National Day.

The way China responds to the situation in the city is crucial in determining how markets and U.S.-China trade talks will be affected, he told CNBC on Friday.

In fact, the politics go hand in hand with the Chinese economy, Roche said.

"I don't accept this will be a small scale problem in a larger China economy. The reason I don't is because I believe any intervention (from Beijing) to Hong Kong will be immediately, umbilically, linked to what happens to trade talks and international relations globally," said Roche, who is president at research and investment consulting firm Independent Strategy.

Roche said "Beijing has to weigh in on two things: the political and economic cause."