As a hedge, I'd like to bet a couple bitcoins against the ETF being approved (hoping to lose the bet). I read that BitMex is offering a "prediction contract" for this purpose, but I don't really know how that works. I'm also aware that they do not accept American customers (I'm American). If I wanted to bet on this contract, could I connect via TOR and deposit bitcoin without providing any identifying information? If so, how does this contract work? Does it provide fixed odds or does the payout vary depending on how people bet? Is their a fixed house vig or does that vary as well?



I also discovered it is possible to bet on the SEC decision at betmoose.com, which is an innovative peer-to-peer wagering site. I like how easy it is to place bets with bitcoin; you don't even have to register. You can send bitcoin anonymously and if you win, they'll send your winnings back to the same BTC address (or another BTC address of your choice). Due to the "Parimutuel" nature of the wager, however, I cannot bet nearly as much as I would like without dramatically changing the odds (against me). Therefore, I'd encourage anyone who wants to bet that the Winkletwins's ETF will be approved to check it out. I'll improve your odds by increasing my "No" wager!



I also read that you can bet on the ETF decision at "OpenLedger", which purports to be a "decentralized conglomerate ecosystem." Can anyone explain what that is, and how it enables one to bet on the ETF approval?



Any other good options for betting on whether the ETF will be approved?