Election to focus on economy but voters losing faith in politicians' ability to affect it

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Australians are increasingly suspicious of governments claiming they can affect the economy.

Key points: Election trends make 2019 a tipping point for voter volatility and news consumption

Voters increasingly believe governments can't affect the country's finances

The Coalition has made its economic management credentials central to its campaign strategy

That sentiment was reflected in the nation's most comprehensive election survey, the Australian Election Study, which offers a glimpse at the underlying trends around federal elections.

If the trend continues, it will offer cause for concern among the major parties as they battle to promote their economic credentials.

Australian National University researcher Jill Sheppard is currently preparing for this year's survey and has outlined the key issues she will be watching.

The government's effect on the country's finances

In calling the election on Thursday morning, Prime Minister Scott Morrison asked "who do you trust to deliver that strong economy which your essential services rely on?".

According to the last post-election survey, of more than 12,000 voters, two of out three believed the Government made "not much difference" to the country's finances over the preceding year — the highest figure on record.

"Voters that think about economy — they tend to prefer the Liberal Party, and those that think about health, education and inequality — they prefer the Labor Party," Dr Sheppard said.

"But if we are not convinced that the government can actually have an economic effect, then the Liberal Party is going to have to broaden its base to convince people it can actually make a difference."

Trust in government

Only one in four Australians think people in government can be trusted.

"The lack of responsiveness and apparent lack of interest in what voters want is a concern," Dr Sheppard said.

"But it's something that the parties can fix and they probably are going to fix it over the next five or 10 years, so we shouldn't be worried about the underlying democratic structure."

Interest in debates

The heavily trumpeted leaders' debates are a fixture of the campaign and the better performer receives praise.

But few voters actually watch the debates themselves, according to Dr Sheppard.

She argues the debates are more for the political watchers, and the importance of winning over the swinging voter is exaggerated.

"We're not necessarily moved to switch our vote based on things that happen during the election campaign; most have already made up their mind," she said.

The first online election

The 2019 poll could be the first one followed by more people online than through television.

It's a milestone but Dr Sheppard said the dominance of existing media companies online meant the impact should not be overestimated.

"It's not necessarily that we're going online and getting on social media to follow the campaign, it's that we are just watching news online when we want to," she said.

Voter volatility

Switching party allegiance has traditionally been rare, but the phenomenon is on the rise.

If trends continue, in 2019 more voters may consider voting for another party than those who have always voted for the same party.

"We are less likely to vote for the party of our parents, and they're more likely to make up our mind," Dr Sheppard said.

Topics: government-and-politics, elections, federal-elections, federal-government, bill-shorten, scott-morrison, australia