opinion

Henning: Tigers re-signing Max, dealing Price unlikely

Several times since last month's Winter Meetings adjourned in San Diego, Dave Dombrowski has said the Tigers have their starting pitchers for 2015.

This has made it tough on Detroiters who were thinking a Max Scherzer reunion party might be a great way to combat those post-holiday doldrums. But it hasn't happened. And it's looking like, at best, a 50-50 proposition as Scherzer and agent Scott Boras wait for a free-agent shopper to write a whopping check.

The Tigers mean business. They have a payroll already sitting at $170 million-plus in 2015. Add another year of Scherzer-grade money to their ledger and there goes the $189-million barrier that triggers baseball's luxury tax. The penalty: 17.5 percent on any cash that exceeds $189 million.

This has not in any final, irreversible fashion kept the Tigers from at least considering a change of heart.

"I guess anything can happen," Dombrowski, the Tigers front-office boss said to media members, "but we're not in active pursuit of that situation (Scherzer) at this time."

The "situation" leads to a necessary question:

At what point could either owner Mike Ilitch decide Scherzer is worth the extra cash and penalties, or — and this has been a hot topic of late in Detroit — might the Tigers decide to make room for Scherzer's payday by trading their replacement ace, David Price, who is nine months from his turn at free agency?

The simple answer is: No.

The Price of insurance

The Tigers got Price in an expensive trade last July for two reasons they have freely acknowledged.

They believed Price would allow them a splendid chance at winning the 2014 division title and ensuing playoff series, even if they batted .500 on that calculation.

They also wanted protection at the top of their rotation when it looked as if Scherzer, who said no last March to $144 million, would inevitably be pitching elsewhere in 2015.

Theoretically, the Tigers could always reverse course. They could sign Scherzer as their top gun and then trade Price, which would protect their payroll, at least in 2015.

There are hang-ups, though, a number of them, in any substitution of Scherzer for Price in Detroit's 2015 plans.

The first is a matter of baseball's actuarial. The Tigers would be gambling probably $160 million or more on a pitcher who in July turns 31. Boras, of course, is wise to say (as he has to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.com) that Scherzer has thrown 5,300 fewer pitches than Jon Lester ($155 million contract signed last month with the Cubs) and 8,500 fewer pitches than has been spun by James Shields, another free agent still for sale.

But a Scherzer signing, for the brand of money Boras and Scherzer are asking (more precisely, demanding), would move the Tigers' long-term contract promises to more than $600 million. There's a businessman named Ilitch who appears disinterested in that level of debt, at least if it means paying Scherzer more than the $144 million the boss offered last March. Otherwise, it's easy to deduce Scherzer might already have been secured for 2015 and beyond.

Neither is trading Price a plausible option. And that's because he could be a one-year rental for a team that has no assurance Price would be with the trading team past 2015.

The return package for a player with a single year of service guaranteed, even on Price's exceptional level, likely would be minimal compared with what the Tigers handed the Rays and Mariners for Price in last July's three-team deal.

It makes no sense, even with Scherzer around, to unload a pitcher of Price's talent for less than you paid for him six months ago, especially when the Tigers are as intent on winning in 2015 as they were in 2014.

It's also conceivable a one-year trade package would gain little more than the Tigers might gain with the early draft pick they stand to get in 2016 after Price, as many of us expect, enjoys his own rendezvous with free agency.

In-house options

This does not mean Detroit will adore every aspect of its tentative 2015 rotation: Price, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, and newcomers Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon.

But neither does it ignore another possibility. There are young starters in the farm system who, in one or two cases, probably aren't far from being helpful in Detroit: Buck Farmer, Kevin Ziomek, Drew VerHagen, Austin Kubitza, and perhaps Kyle Lobstein, or Kyle Ryan.

Throw together this bundle of risks, probabilities, percentages, and payroll realities, and it remains difficult to see either of two events happening: a signing of Scherzer, or a trade involving Price.

It's still five weeks before teams head for Florida and spring camp. Markets and roster considerations have been known to shift as teams pack trunks and bags and develop an itch for adding one, big available superstar. That's especially true when one views a decade of Boras-Ilitch history.

But as much as long-term forecasts can be trusted, the Tigers look as if they're sticking with the current arrangement. Not sure, given the dollar signs, who would blame them.

lynn.henning@detroitnews.com

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