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The NDP has steamrolled over the Liberal Party to land in second place nationally behind the front-running Conservatives, a new poll shows.

The EKOS-iPolitics survey of more than 3,000 Canadians finds 28 per cent of decided voters now support the NDP, compared to 23.7 per cent who plan to vote Liberal. The Conservatives hold less than a six-point lead, sitting with 33.7 per cent support with just one week to go before election day.

Pollster Frank Graves calls it an unprecedented turn and “astonishing shift” for the NDP, which has traditionally trailed the two other main federal parties. Leader Jack Layton is climbing most dramatically in Quebec, but building momentum in all regions of the country.

“We have seen almost from Day One a slow, steady and now a dramatic rise where the NDP has gone from 14 points in a pre-writ poll to 28 points,” Graves said. “That is a doubling — I’ve never seen anything close to that.”

The poll — the first of the campaign to show the NDP running in second place — shows the Green Party with 7.2 per cent support, the Bloc Québécois at 6.2 per cent and other parties with 1.2 per cent.

While numbers could still change significantly in the final week of the campaign, Graves said current figures suggest the NDP could take a “breathtaking” 100 seats. With that count, the once-unthinkable scenario of a Layton-led coalition with the Liberals begins to emerge, he said.

“It’s hard to imagine a 130-seat diminished Harper government would be able to hold on to power against a clear majority of seats and a major advantage in popular support for the NDP and the Liberals,” Graves said. “The idea that you could have a Jack Layton-led coalition sounds preposterous, but that’s what the numbers suggest.”

Current numbers would likely produce 131 seats for the Conservatives and about 69 for the Liberals, according to Graves. Together, the NDP and Liberals would have a clear majority with 38 more seats than the Conservatives, as well as a collective 20 more points in popular vote.

The NDP rise is not a blip, but rather a steady progression throughout the campaign that exploded last week and is now rocking most parts of the country. And because the NDP leads as the second-choice pick for voters, Graves said the growth potential may not be fully exhausted yet.

Women and younger voters are the biggest demographic groups moving over to the NDP camp. Graves believes Layton’s leadership style, his message of change and scandal-free record are appealing to voters.

“They like his positive style, funny disposition, courageous demeanour with his cane and getting out there talking about the average guy. I think that’s really working,” he said. “It’s a nice contrast to what they see as this sullen, controlling style of the prime minister or this intellectual style of Michael Ignatieff.”

Most of the NDP growth has come at the expense of the Bloc Québécois in Quebec and the Green vote nationally, but the party has also chewed in to Liberal support.

Conservatives have been relatively stable through the campaign and are showing growing support with younger voters, but would not be in a position to form a majority government if current numbers hold. The Liberals have gained back some ground in Ontario, but are slipping nationally.

The EKOS poll surveyed 3,004 adult Canadians, including 2,783 decided voters, between April 22 and April 24, 2011. Results are considered accurate within plus or minus 1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

For a full report on the EKOS survey, including the poll questions, click here.

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