

Is Stephen Jay Gould in the devil’s mouth at the center of hell? “May I end up next to Judas Iscariot, Brutus, and Cassius in the devil’s mouth at the center of hell if I ever fail to present my most honest assessment and best judgement of evidence for empirical truth —Stephen Jay Gould, The Mismeasure of Man” A recent paper evaluates Gould’s attack on Samuel George Morton’s 19th-century work on skulls, which has served as a textbook case of scientific fraud and pseudoscience for the past 30 years, since Gould initially published his analysis in Science (expanded a couple of years later as The Mismeasure of Man). The results, for Gould, are damning. Some of the highlights: Gould famously suggested that Morton’s measurements may have been subject to bias: “Plausible scenarios are easy to construct. Morton, measuring by seed, picks up a threateningly large black skull, fills it lightly and gives it a few desultory shakes. Next, he takes a distressingly small Caucasian skull, shakes hard, and pushes mightily at the foramen magnum with his thumb. It is easily done, without conscious motivation; expectation is a powerful guide to action” [5]. While Gould offers this as only a “plausible scenario,” and did not remeasure any crania, subsequent authors have generally (and incorrectly) cited Gould as demonstrating that Morton physically mismeasured crania (e.g., [15]). We remeasured 308 of the 670 skulls (46%) whose capacity was published by Morton (Text S2, Dataset S1, Dataset S2). Linear and quantile-quantile regression identified Morton’s measurements of 7 skulls (2%) as differing significantly from ours (Table 1), with a percentage difference in measurements of greater than 5.5% (Text S2). If Gould’s hypothesis that Morton physically mismeasured some skulls due to racial bias were correct, we would expect the mismeasured crania to be non-randomly distributed by population. Specifically, we would expect Morton’s overestimates to be concentrated on “white” crania, whereas his underestimates would be mostly “non-white” crania. We tested this using the binomial probability on population-quantile tables (Text S2) and found only one significant difference: Morton overestimated more Egyptian crania (3 of 13) than would be expected by chance. The overmeasured Egyptian skulls are specimens that Morton considered clearly “Negro,” so his overestimation is obviously at odds with his predicted bias. Otherwise, Morton’s errors were random with respect to population. Individually, Morton’s three most overmeasured skulls are an Egyptian Copt that Morton considered “Negro” (+12%), a Seminole (+8%), and a “Native African Negro” (+7%). These results falsify the claim that Morton physically mismeasured crania based on his a priori biases. ... Clearly, Morton was not manipulating samples to depress the “Indian” mean, and the change was trivial in any case (0.3 in3). In fact, the more likely candidate for manipulating sample composition is Gould himself in this instance. In recalculating Morton’s Native American mean, Gould [1] reports erroneously high values for the Seminole-Muskogee and Iroquois due to mistakes in defining those samples and omits the Eastern Lenapé group entirely, all of which serve to increase the Native American mean and reduce the differences between groups. ... For Morton’s 1839 seed-based measurements, Gould claims that Morton’s Native American average capacity is artificially depressed by his inappropriate use of a straight mean (taking the average of each individual specimen in the entire sample) rather than a grouped mean (first taking the average of each Native American population subsample, then calculating the mean of those means), since the former is sensitive to differences in sample sizes between “large headed” populations and “small headed” populations. In fact, the grouped mean for Morton’s Native American dataset is 79.9 in3, almost identical to the straight mean of 80.2 in3 (Dataset S3). So Morton’s use of a straight mean actually slightly increased his Native American average. Gould’s calculation of a higher Native American average (83.8 in3) is entirely a function of Gould omitting 34 crania (of 144) as coming from populations with samples of n <4 and, even by that criterion, erroneously excluding 6 crania, all with small cranial capacities (Dataset S3). Gould’s reanalysis of Morton’s 1849 shot-based data resulted in a Native American mean capacity of 86 in3 rather than Morton’s original 79 in3 [1]. Gould obtained his new average by again taking the group mean of Native American populations with four or more crania. But Gould also applied an additional restriction: he only included Native American crania that Morton had also previously measured with seed. This restriction is entirely arbitrary on Gould’s part, as Morton’s publications and analyses for his seed- and shot-based measurements are completely separate (1839 versus 1849), and Gould did not apply this restriction to the other groups he reanalyzed in Morton’s shot-based data. If this restriction is lifted, Gould’s Native American average would be reduced to about 83 in3, considerably below his reported 86 in3 (Dataset S3). Overall, Gould concludes that his reanalysis of Morton’s shot-based data produces the “remarkable” result that there are no notable differences in mean cranial capacity between Morton’s groups, with Caucasians firmly mid-pack at 85 in3 and the overall range being 83 to 86 in3 [1]. However, Gould’s Caucasian figure was in error and should really be 87 in3 rather than 85 in3 [5]. And even accepting Gould’s inflated mean for Native Americans of 86 in3, the overall rank order of Gould’s results (whites/Native Americans/“Mongolians” and “Malays”/blacks) is then actually closer to Morton’s presumed a priori bias than were Morton’s own results (whites/“Malays”/blacks/“Mongolians”/Nat?iveAmericans). ... Gould [1] found that in the final table of Morton’s main work, Crania Americana, Morton had erroneously reported the Native American mean cranial capacity as 82.4 in3 rather than the true value of 80.2 in3. As Gould describes, “this elementary error permitted Morton to retain the conventional scale of being with whites on top, Indians in the middle, and blacks on the bottom” [1]. Gould argued that the error persisted because its “demotion” of blacks “provided so much satisfaction that Morton never thought of checking himself” [1]. However, the correct value is given on the page in Crania Americana preceding the table in question, suggesting the error in the table was typographical. Furthermore, historical evidence indicates that Morton did check himself and attempt to correct the error. Michael [14] describes a copy of Crania Americana inscribed by Morton with the erroneous “82” value for “Indians” corrected in the same pen to read “80.” A different Morton-inscribed copy of Crania Americana reprinted by Bernasconi [21] has the same correction. We found that Gould’s personal copy of a first edition Crania Americana, while lacking an inscription from Morton, also has the identical correction in ink clearly of considerable antiquity (Gould Archive, Stanford University). In addition, Stanton [6] reproduces the same table with the correct value of 80 set in type. This suggests that a systematic effort to correct this error was made around the time of publication, casting doubt on Gould’s claim that Morton “never thought of checking himself.” Finally, this error did not “demote” blacks: the rank ordering of groups by average cranial capacity remains “White/Indian/Black” whether “Indians” are 80 in3 or 82 in3. As such, the error does not alter the “scale of being” whatsoever, contra Gould, falsifying the alleged motivation for Morton’s error. ... Of the approximately seven minor errors in Morton’s work identified by Gould [1], only two appear to be actual errors, and their overall impact confounds rather than supports Morton’s presumed a priori rankings. Of the substantive criticisms Gould [1] made of Morton’s work, only two are supported here. First, Morton indeed believed in the concept of race and assigned a plethora of different attributes to various groups, often in highly racist fashion [I’m willing to bet most of his assertions are supported by the data]. This, however, is readily apparent to anyone reading the opening pages of Morton’s Crania Americana. Second, the summary table of Morton’s final 1849 catalog [10] has multiple errors (Dataset S3). However, had Morton not made those errors his results would have more closely matched his presumed a priori bias (and see Box 4). Ironically, Gould’s own analysis of Morton is likely the stronger example of a bias influencing results [11]. ... The data on cranial capacity gathered by Morton are generally reliable, and he reported them fully. Overall, we find that Morton’s initial reputation as the objectivist of his era was well-deserved. Samuel George Morton, RIP. SJG, enjoy the company (assuming, of course, you were even capable of honesty and good judgement by nature).

More on this story: USA today (HT to LJB) Alternative Right John Hawks Steve Sailer Mangan’s Dienekes GNXP Rushton (older article on Gould)



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