Kerala, which has seen left and right political coalitions alternatively win the elections to the state assembly for decades, is now facing a new dilemma. The influx of migrant labour from far off states, which has now reached critical levels with the numbers touching 32 lakh, is slowly creating a large new constituency which will give them a decisive role in the electoral battles in the state.

The size of the migrant labour is significant given that it is substantially more than half the votes that national parties like CPM and Congress garner in the state. For instance, while the votes polled by the CPM in the last assembly election in 2011 was 49.2 lakh that of the Congress was 46.1 lakh. The impact of migrant labour will be especially crucial since the vote difference between the left and right coalitions in the state as a whole is generally less than 2 lakh.

Though migrant labour has not so far claimed their legitimate voting rights in large numbers it is only a matter of time before they start exercising it. This is because while the early migrants have adjusted to their new settings, the new comers – who form the bulk of the migrant labour – are only getting adjusted to the new sociopolitical milieu. Language and educational barriers still remain a major obstacle for their enrolment on the electoral rolls.

Meanwhile the trade unions have already started recruiting the migrant workers to help them claim their legitimate rights. Securing their voting rights is inevitable once the migrant labour gain stability and settle in selected pockets of the state to secure the minimum stipulated norms for getting voting rights. The advent of new identity documents like Aadhaar will also make it much easier for them to gain new voter identity cards in the state

The empowerment of the migrant workforce of around 35 lakh will turn the political fortunes of the smaller national and regional parties like the BJP, CPI, Muslim league, Kerala Congress upside down. These smaller parties which have been ruling the roost for decades, often bargaining with both coalitions to maximise their gains, will soon lose their current standing and will have to play second fiddle to the newly emerging constituency.

This is because the electoral strength of these smaller parties will be substantially lower than that of the migrant labour. For instance, in the last assembly elections in 2011 the total votes polled by the CPI was only 15.2 lakh that of the Muslim League 13.8 lakh, BJP 10.5 lakh and Kerala Congress 8.6 lakh. Given this scenario the only option for the various political parties would be to co-opt the migrant labour by enrolling them to their ranks.

However, the impact of the migrant labour on the electoral prospects will not be uniform across the state as they are concentrated in a few districts. The data with the government indicates a few districts like Ernakulam, Wynad, Kannur and Kasargod account for almost half the migrant workers in the state. So the impact of the migrant workers on the political parties in these districts are likely to be much more substantial than in the others. It is time that the political parties braced themselves for the coming instability.