Ongoing tension between the United States and Iran, recently flared by the death of Iran's top military commander, is being felt acutely within Toronto's sizeable Iranian community.

Since Gen. Qassem Soleimani was killed by a U.S. drone on January 3, many within the Iranian diaspora find themselves facing tremendous anxiety about the near future, says Maral Karimi, a Toronto-based author, activist and PhD candidate.

CBC Radio's Metro Morning spoke to Karimi, author of The Iranian Green Movement of 2009: Reverberating Echoes of Resistance, to discuss what Soleimani's death means for Iranian people and what might come next.

This interview has been lightly edited for clarity and length.

Farrah Merali (FM): What was your initial reaction to the killing of Qasem Soleimani by U.S. forces in Iraq?

Maral Karimi (MK): Well it was sheer joy. But that only lasted for a few moments as the uncertainty and anxiety set in and we started to realize what the fallout could be. Because Soleimani's name, to many people, is synonymous with murders, extrajudicial activities and the leading of the proxy wars in the region, and the repression of democratic movements both domestically and abroad.

But at the same time, he was a high level military figure and his assassination could have significant fallout because the Iranian government would certainly retaliate — that's the international response. But domestically it also has a very negative impact on the movements that are happening in Iran, in Iraq and in Lebanon. If you remember, in November there was a massive protest in Iran that lasted for a couple of weeks and thousands were arrested. We know for sure that at least 1,500 were killed and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps was directly implicated. And also in Iraq and Lebanon, protests that have been going on for months have been overshadowed by the assassination of Soleimani.

Editor's note: Iran has not released an official death toll stemming from the protests Karimi mentioned, which took place from Nov. 15-18, 2019, but Amnesty International says it has reports showing at least 304 people were killed during that time while scores more were arrested.

FM: What are the people of Iran saying?

MK: Well Iran, over this issue particularly, is a nation divided. And we see a reflection of that division in the diaspora in the GTA. To many people there, they're truly upset, they're humiliated. To them, Soleimani was a national hero and iconic military man that was credited for eradicating ISIS — a narrative which is not entirely true. At the same time, there are those who hold him responsible for the killing of so many people, so many men, women and children. So reactions are mixed.

Maral Karimi, author and activist, looks at how U.S. actions are pushing Iranians toward the extremes of supporting either 'foreign imperial aggression' or 'domestic repression'. 10:03

We see videos pouring in from Iran showing massive crowds participating [in Soleimani's funeral ceremony in Tehran]. I don't deny that there is strong support for him within the country and without, as well. But at the same time, in the context of an authoritarian regime that does not allow any political dissent and has no room for freedom of expression, organic or grassroots protests should be taken with a grain of salt. There is massive propaganda that is going on in Iran that brings people out. I am not suggesting that everybody was coerced to participate, obviously, but propaganda has a significant role in authoritarian states.

In this aerial photo released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, mourners attend a funeral ceremony for Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Tehran. (Associated Press)

FM: You have loved ones in Iran. What does all of this what we've seen so far mean for them?

MK: I haven't been able to talk to them. It's not safe.

FM: Why hasn't it been safe to talk to them?

MK: Well, I'm me.

FM: A well-known activist?

MK: I'm an activist. I'm a scholar. I write freely. I wrote a book criticizing the regime and its founder. So at this moment, part of the process that you learn early on is to halt all contact — whether it's on social media or the phone. Just stop talking to everyone because phones are being hacked and they're being monitored and so is social media.

FM: What's it like not being able to communicate with them given given what's happening right now?

MK: It's re-traumatization, because we just went through this in late November — with the protests and the internet blackout — for over a week. We had absolutely no idea what was going on back home. With that wound being so fresh, it's traumatizing all over again. We're just looking and watching all the videos and reading the statements and trying to make our own inferences but that's about it.

FM: How is this conflict impacting the community here in Toronto?

MK: The Iranian community is a divided community over this. There are many in Toronto who are sympathetic to the Iranian regime, who have economic and political interests there. And there are many who oppose the regime. When an event as dramatic as taking out Soleimani occurs, people are forced, or they find themselves having to choose yet again, between clear imperial aggression and domestic authoritarianism.

To some extent, events like this tend to push people to rally around the flag. In my opinion, though, impact will be limited because the state is increasingly losing support.

FM: What are you going to be watching for morale in the coming days as this unfolds?

MK: Certainly we're going to watch for what Soleimani's replacement, Gen. Esmail Ghaani, is going to be talking about and the measures he's going to take. And as for the Iranian leaders, I have a particular interest in the reformist faction — the so-called "sanctioned opposition" within Iran — how they're going to be dealing with this. At the same time we're going to watch the international response. Above all, we're going to look and see how the residual protests are shaping up, and if and when they're going to resurface again.