NHL DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

There are only 4 days left in the NHL regular season. The playoff picture should be clearer after tonight’s 12 games. From a betting perspective, I see 5 value bets. The details are shown below:

APRIL 6, 2017 MONEY LINE Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ PICK ROI Senators +182 +150 2,82 2,50 X 12,8% Bruins -203 -150 1,49 1,67 -10,4% Tip: Bet the Senators. Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ PICK ROI Penguins -163 -155 1,61 1,65 -1,9% Devils +147 +155 2,47 2,55 -3,1% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ PICK ROI Islanders +113 +140 2,13 2,40 -11,3% Hurricanes -125 -140 1,80 1,71 X 5,0% Tip: Bet the Hurricanes. Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ PICK ROI Jets +156 +178 2,56 2,78 -7,9% Blue Jackets -173 -178 1,58 1,56 1,0% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ PICK ROI Lightning +130 +138 2,30 2,38 -3,4% Maple Leafs -144 -138 1,69 1,72 -1,8% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ PICK ROI Blues -121 -136 1,83 1,74 X 5,3% Panthers +110 +136 2,10 2,36 -11,0% Tip: Bet the Blues. Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ PICK ROI Predators -118 -134 1,85 1,75 X 5,8% Stars +107 +134 2,07 2,34 -11,5% Tip: Bet the Predators. Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ PICK ROI Wild -174 -162 1,57 1,62 -2,6% Avalanche +157 +162 2,57 2,62 -1,9% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ PICK ROI Canucks -116 +113 1,86 2,13 -12,6% Coyotes +105 -113 2,05 1,88 X 8,8% Tip: Bet the Coyotes. Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ PICK ROI Blackhawks +118 +125 2,18 2,25 -3,1% Ducks -130 -125 1,77 1,80 -1,7% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ PICK ROI Flames +127 +133 2,27 2,33 -2,6% Kings -140 -133 1,71 1,75 -2,1% Tip: No value bet. Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ Pinnacle PROFESSOR MJ PICK ROI Oilers +111 +117 2,11 2,17 -2,8% Sharks -123 -117 1,81 1,85 -2,2% Tip: No value bet.

I like the Coyotes +105 (decimal 2.05) against the Canucks . Arizona has shown some improvement recently, as illustrated by their 6-6-2 record over their last 14 games. Meanwhile, Vancouver has won only two games over that same time period. It’s pretty unbelievable that the team has scored a meager 4 goals in the last 5 contests!! Shane Doan and Radim Vrbata should be back on the ice for the Coyotes. Louis Domingue will be Arizona’s netminder tonight. In case you didn’t know, he has won 5 of his last 6 starts while posting a great .942 save percentage!

I recommend picking the Senators +182 (decimal 2.82) in Boston . I don’t necessarily firmly believe they will win the game, but such odds are implying that Vegas thinks Ottawa has at most a 35.5% chance of winning this game (1 / 2.82). I don’t agree with that. The Bruins’ leading scorer, Brad Marchand, has been suspended (yet again!) for the next two games. The Sens are also going to be missing some key parts with Erik Karlsson sidelined once again, as well as Ceci, Methot and perhaps Bobby Ryan. Ottawa has won the last 5 meetings with Boston. Craig Anderson and Tuukka Rask have been confirmed as the starters. These two teams are battling with Toronto to gain home-ice advantage for the first round of the playoffs.

I’m betting the Blues -121 (decimal 1.83) in Florida . The Panthers look like a team that cannot wait until the season ends. Their GM Tom Rowe made a controversial decision earlier this season by firing Gerard Gallant and replacing him behind the bench. The move did not turn out so well: the team holds a .379 record since then. The team has now lost 16 of its past 21 matches. The Panthers just seem like a team that does not care anymore. As if they needed more bad news, they are without their top forward Barkov and their top defenceman Ekblad, while St. Louis might get 3 players back from injuries tonight (including Paul Stastny). The Blues are trying to hold on to the 3rd place in the Central division as they have a one-point lead over Nashville.

I’m picking the Hurricanes -125 against the Islanders . Carolina went on a 13-game stretch where they recorded at least one point, but have now lost their last three games which officially eliminated them from playoff contention. They’ve got stunning numbers against the Islanders: not only are they 3-0-1 versus the Isles this year, but they are 6-0-3 in the previous nine meetings! New York is still hoping to make the playoffs, but their chances are extremely small especially without their leader, John Tavares (lower-body injury). A bright spot for them recently has been the play of goalie Jaroslav Halak. He has been great since being recalled from the AHL. He has allowed only 4 goals in his last 3 games (which he all won). His save percentage over his 5 starts since joining the big club back? 93.9%. Still, I like the Canes in this game.

Finally, I’m going with Nashville -118 (1.85) in Dallas . The Stars have started increasing the playing time of younger players, which is good news for Preds’ fans. Nashville is trying to catch up the Blues for 3rd place in the Central division to avoid playing one of the top two teams in the Western Conference (Chicago and Anaheim). Facing the Wild may not look like a walk in the park either, but considering their struggles over the last few weeks, it might be the better option. Juuse Saros is the likely starter in net for the Preds. I don’t mind it at all since his numbers have been just as good as Rinne’s (they are actually slightly better).

Have a good evening!

Professor MJ