WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The case for faster U.S. growth in the second half of 2014 largely depends on a broad improvement in the economy, but the housing market remains in danger of falling behind.

Many economists believe home sales and construction will rebound after a recent lull. Housing starts jumped 13.2% in April, for example, and Wall Street predicts that sales of new and previously owned homes will also spring back in April.

Yet even if the housing industry continues to lag, they say, the economy is poised to expand more rapidly anyway. They cite an upsurge in hiring, stronger manufacturing growth and an expected acceleration in business investment.

“It’s not going to be any one thing. It’s going to be a number of things,” said Gus Faucher, a senior economist at PNC Financial Services, whose firm is forecasting a heady 4% growth rate in the final six months of 2014.

A smaller number of analysts are skeptical housing will contribute much to overall U.S. growth in 2014 . Like a drag chute on a race car, they believe, it might even significantly slow the economy down. Top Federal Reserve officials are also more worried about the housing market.

The pair of reports on home sales are the highlights on a light economic calendar. The Federal Reserve will also release details of its last big meeting in April and a handful of the nation’s top central bankers will share their views on the economy this week.

Aside from housing, Wall Street pros don’t expect the minutes to yield any juicy tidbits on what the Fed will do next. The minutes will be released Wednesday.

The home front

The slowdown in sales of new and existing homes starting last summer has puzzled many economists. While mortgage rates have risen almost a full percentage point over the past year, they remain historically very low. What’s more, economists have been expecting rising employment and pent-up demand to push home sales steadily higher.

The disappointing level of sales has spawned a number of explanations. Some say soaring student-loan debt has strait-jacketed many young couples. Read: Student loans preventing millennials from buying homes

Others such as chief economist Lindsey Piegza of Sterne Agee emphasize a spike in home prices that’s made it much harder to afford a home, especially for workers whose salaries have not kept pace. Piegza said prices will have to cool or lenders will have to ease borrowing rules to help more people buy a home.

In April, sales of existing homes are forecast to climb to a 4.65 million rate from 4.59 million in March. Although they are now one-third above a post-recession low, existing home sales are still 37% below the all-time peak achieved nine years ago. The National Association of Realtors releases the April sales report on Thursday.

New home sales have also leveled off after steady three-year rise. They sold at a 434,000 annual rate in the first quarter, down from 446,000 in the fourth quarter. By contrast, new home sales totaled a whopping 1.28 million in 2005. The new-home sales report comes out Friday.

By one measure, the health of the housing market probably shouldn’t have an outsized effect on U.S. growth. After all, investment in residential housing only accounted for 3.1% of the U.S. economy in 2013, down from 5.5% in 2003.

Yet the residual effects of home sales are much stronger — people spend a lot of money to furnish their homes with appliances, furniture, electronics and the like. And the industry is a major source of well-playing middle-class jobs for workers who lack a college degree.

If home sales are to resume their upward tilt, the economy will have to continue to add jobs at a monthly pace of 200,000 or more like it’s done so far in 2014. And the weekly jobless claims report on Thursday might offer a clue on whether another gain of that size is likely in May.

Jobless claims fell to a post-recession low of 297,000 last week and this week’s numbers coincide with the Labor Department’s employment survey of business establishments. A low claims number in the survey week often means a big increase in monthly hiring.

Economists expect jobless claims to bounce higher after a sharp drop in the past two weeks that was probably tied in part to seasonal quirks stemming from a late Easter holiday. Read: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since 2007.

“I don’t think 297,000 is the trend,” Faucher said. “It’s probably more like 320,000, and that’s consistent with 200,000-plus monthly job growth.”

Also read:Apartments as percentage of housing starts reaches 40-year high