Cuba will soon be without a Castro as leader for first time in nearly 60 years

Alan Gomez | USA TODAY

Show Caption Hide Caption Cubans face impending change on their island after elections Cubans face impending change on their island after elections.

If all goes as expected, Cuba will name a new president in two weeks — the first time in nearly 60 years that the communist country's leader won't be a Castro.

Outgoing President Raúl Castro will still loom large in retirement, much like his older brother Fidel Castro, who hovered over the nation's affairs in the years leading up to his death in 2016. But when the Cuban National Assembly meets April 19 to name the new president, it will mark a major shift in the history of the Caribbean island that has antagonized and tantalized Americans for decades.

"This is not a transition to democracy, but this is enormous," said Pedro Freyre, an attorney with the Akerman law firm who represents several American companies doing business in Cuba. "As our president would say, 'It's huge.' "

Castro's successor likely will be a man largely unknown outside Cuba: Miguel Díaz-Canel, 57, who has risen steadily through the ranks of the Communist Party of Cuba. His selection would represent a symbolic change for a regime mostly led by the bearded guerrillas who fought alongside the Castros during the 1959 revolution that overthrew the government of Fulgencio Batista.

Díaz-Canel's ascension to the presidency is not a guarantee. Would-be successors have come and gone over the years. And there is always the possibility Castro chooses someone from the same generation as the Castro brothers and fellow revolutionary Ernesto "Che" Guevara.

It also has become more difficult to assess the political situation in Cuba after the U.S. pulled most of its diplomats off the island. President Trump ordered a sharp drawdown at the U.S. Embassy in Havana after a series of mysterious "health attacks" against employees there.

Still, Cuba experts agree Castro probably will stand by Díaz-Canel.

Castro and his revolutionary cohorts could be making a pragmatic decision to anoint a younger leader at least to give the appearance the regime is changing with the times, said Frank Mora, director of the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center at Florida International University.

"They're all in their late 80s," he said. "They understand that they have to hand power over to someone who will live longer than a couple of years."

Experts disagree over how much power Díaz-Canel will truly hold and wonder whether Castro continues to run the show as head of the Communist Party of Cuba.

Mora said Cuba won't be entirely out of Castro's grip until he's dead. "He's still going to be there in the background, still wearing his four-star military uniform," he said.

That role would suit Raúl, since he was always more comfortable operating in anonymity, unlike Fidel who basked in the spotlight, said Jaime Suchlicki, director of the Cuban Studies Institute in Miami.

"Raúl never liked the diplomatic activities, going to the parties," Suchlicki said. "So he's going to put this guy in there and create a facade for the new generation. But Díaz-Canel is not going to have any decision-making power."

It's possible Castro is ready to hand over the reins and ease into retirement after nearly six decades of helping keep the government intact. He has talked about spending more time in his native Santiago, on the eastern end of the island and isolated from the diplomatic and economic hub of Havana.

Freyre said Castro probably will take a more diminished role, emerging only if the new crop of leaders stray too far from the script or bicker too much among themselves.

"Think of it as a telenovela," Freyre said. "The (father) is about to go. The kids are throwing their weight around, saying 'Papa wanted me to have the hacienda' and another saying 'He wanted me to have the Rolls Royce.'

"Raúl is tired. He's not going to run the show day to day. But if the elbow-throwing gets out of hand, the old guy comes in and says, 'Enough!' "

Another question facing Díaz-Canel is whether he will be able to control the government ministries filled with Castro supporters.

That includes Cuba's military, officials who manage Cuba's centrally planned economy and legions of provincial leaders who have run things a certain way for decades.

"For being a 'revolutionary government,' they are incredibly conservative," Freyre said. "They're very cautious; they're very careful. This is a government that never rushes into doing anything."

Díaz-Canel seems fine with that. Experts describe him as a true believer in the Marxist-Leninist ideology that formed the basis of Fidel Castro's government. He supported the marginal changes implemented during the 12 years of Raúl Castro's rule, such as allowing Cubans to buy and sell property for the first time, work privately outside the state-run economy and get slightly expanded access to computers, cellphones and the Internet.

He also has clearly adopted the anti-imperialistic stance of his predecessors. In a speech in October, he blasted the United States for its insistence that Cuba move toward a more democratic government.

"Imperialism can never be trusted, not even a tiny bit, never,” Díaz-Canel said, echoing the words of Guevara on the 50th anniversary of his death.

In the end, the biggest hurdle facing Díaz-Canel could be his ability to win over the public.

Fidel and Raúl Castro could always point to their successful revolution as their claim to power. One can't travel far in Cuba without finding a black-and-white photo of the brothers clawing through the mountains of eastern Cuba and fighting their way toward Havana.

Diaz-Canel "doesn't have those bona fides. He doesn't have that credibility that the first generation of barbudos had," Mora said. "His basis of legitimacy can't be 1959. It has to be, 'What have you done for me lately?' "