Politico Illustration / Getty Images The POLITICO Caucus Insiders predict Trump win in South Carolina, Clinton in Nevada Nevada 'is going to be close and it shouldn't be,' said one Democrat.

Donald Trump is poised for his second win of the Republican presidential primary season on Saturday in South Carolina. And Hillary Clinton looks as if she'll eke out a victory in Nevada.

That’s according to the activists, strategists and operatives who make up The POLITICO Caucus in both states.

A clear majority of South Carolina insiders -- nearly 80 percent -- picked Trump as the most likely victor on Saturday, with Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz also receiving votes.


It wasn’t quite so overwhelming among South Carolina Republicans, however. Just three-in-five chose Trump as the winner – and a number of those who did predicted a closer-than-expected race.

“Trump's margin of victory will be narrower than many think, and the difference between second and fourth will be tight,” said one South Carolina Republican, who, like all the insiders, answered the survey anonymously.

“Trump is dropping due to his conspiracy attacks on [George W. Bush],” added another, “but his base of 25 percent remains solid.”

The Republicans who said Trump would fall short on Saturday cited momentum for Rubio following the endorsement of GOP Gov. Nikki Haley and Cruz’s strong ground game in the state.

Republican insiders were also offered the chance to project the most likely order of finish. The most common standings: Trump first, Cruz second, Rubio third, Bush fourth, John Kasich fifth and Ben Carson sixth.

“The Rubio ‘surge’ is real,” one South Carolina Republican said. “You can feel it on the ground, and you can see it in the numbers that are the most recent. Cruz is static and, inversely, Trump is sliding. The question is, will the two trend lines (Rubio and Trump) intersect and pass before Saturday night? I'll go out on a limb and say yes.”

“With the gubernatorial endorsement, a weekend of beautiful weather and a wildly skewed voter population, Rubio is going to slip by Mr. Trump for a 27 [percent] to 26 [percent] victory with Ted Cruz at 24 [percent],” added another.

The main argument for Cruz, who is running second in most polls, is that he has an especially strong organization, particularly in the more conservative Upstate region.

“The polls are inflated,” said one Republican. “Cruz's ground game will prevail.”

Yet another South Carolina Republican predicted Trump would wilt in the face of South Carolina’s rough-and-tumble politics. “If Trump can be knee-capped, this will be the beginning,” the Republican said.

But Democrats in the state don’t think Trump can be stopped. Every South Carolina Democrat who completed the survey picked Trump to win on Saturday.

“Much to my surprise, Trump doesn't seem to be going anywhere,” said one Democrat. “He's captured the essence of voters who are simply sick and tired of the status quo. His message resonates in South Carolina much like it seems to be doing across the country.”

“The question is whether the Rubio campaign will be close enough to matter,” added another. “If Trump beats Rubio [by a two-to-one margin], then the Haley endorsement will be an embarrassing moment for the governor and her political operation. If he finishes close, she's a big winner, and we have an interesting race.”

In Nevada, there was a split in predicting Saturday’s Democratic caucuses: Most Democrats expressed confidence Hillary Clinton would eke out a narrow victory over Bernie Sanders based on the strength of her organization, but Republicans put their chips on the insurgent Vermont senator.

“It's going to be close and it shouldn't be, but momentum sometimes can catch up to organization,” said one Nevada Democrat. “I still think organization wins the day.”

A number of Nevada Democratic insiders said the nature and relative newness of the state’s presidential caucuses were a boon to Clinton.

“I believe it will be close, and the outcome will depend, of course, on how many of Sanders' young supporters actually come out to caucus on a Saturday morning,” said one Democrat.

“Clinton will win the type of victory that shows that organization does still matter,” added another. “To that point, Team Bernie invited press to a phone bank last week, and their volunteers didn't even know when the caucus was taking place. It won't be a big margin for Team Hillary, but it will be a clear win that the can build on headed into South Carolina.”

One Nevada Democrat said the fact the race is close shows Clinton is no longer an unassailable front-runner.

“The Clinton firewall is clearly not real at this point,” countered another. “It'll be uncomfortably close for Clinton, but I still think she pulls out. If she doesn't win, it'll send a message the Bernie's economic criticism resonates with more than just white voters. It could be a game changer for the campaign moving forward.”

The majority of Nevada Republicans see Sanders as the more likely winner on Saturday, however, buoyed by momentum from his resounding victory last week in New Hampshire.

“Sanders has motivated young Hispanics to his side, and that will give him the edge,” said one Republican, who also added that the race “will be close and could break either way.”

And another Republican cautioned that, if Clinton emerges with a disproportionate number of delegates out of the state because of superdelegates and other allocation differences, it would only inflame Sanders backers who think the deck is stacked against their candidate.

“The more she prevails on a delegate level in spite of losing real votes,” the Republican warned, “the more Bernie supporters will be motivated.”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this survey:

South Carolina: Andrew Collins, Antjuan Seawright, Barry Wynn, Bob McAlister, Boyd Brown, Brady Quirk-Garvan, Bruce Haynes, Catherine Templeton, Chad Connelly, Chip Felkel, Cindy Costa, Clay Middleton, David Wilkins, Dick Harpootlian, Donna Hicks, Drea Byars, Ed McMullen, Elizabeth Colbert-Busch, Ellen Weaver, Erin McKee, Gary R. Smith, Glenn McCall, Inez Tenenbaum, Isaiah Nelson, Jaime R. Harrison, James Smith, Jason Perkey, Jay W. Ragley, Jim Hodges, Jimmy Williams, Joe Erwin, Joel Sawyer, John Brisini, Kevin Bishop, Kim Wellman, Laurin Manning, Le Frye, Luke Byars, Matt Moore, Mikee Johnson, Morgan Allison, Phil Noble, Scott Farmer, Tony Denny, Trey Walker, Tyler Jones, Walter Whetsell, Warren Tompkins, Will Folks

Nevada: Adam Khan, Andres Ramirez, Andrew Diss, Barbara Buckley, Bob Cavazos, Brendan Summers, Chip Evans, Chuck Muth, Dan Hart, Daniel Stewart, Ed Williams, Emmy Ruiz, Erven T. Nelson, Greg Bailor, Heidi Wixom, Jack St. Martin, James Smack, Jay Gertsema, Jeremy Hughes, Jim DeGraffenreid, Jon Ralston, Kristen Orthman, Laura Martin, Linda Cavazos, Lindsey Jydstrup, Mac Abrams, Mari St. Martin, Marla Turner, Megan Jones, Michael McDonald, Michelle White, Mike Slanker, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Oscar Goodman, Pat Hickey, Paul Smith, Pete Ernaut, Peter Koltak, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Roberta Lange, Ryan Erwin, Ryan Hamilton, Sam Lieberman, Scott Scheid, Yvanna Cancela, Zach Hudson

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.