After losing two state and four congressional seats in the 2018 midterm, Orange County Republican leaders say they’re making adjustments as they work to regain political clout in next year’s election.

“We had to look at changing our campaign game plan for 2020 based on the new circumstances,” said Fred Whitaker, chair of the Republican Party of Orange County.

The local GOP, for example, recently rewrote its bylaws so it could endorse Republican congressional candidates as early as six months before the filing deadline for challengers to enter the race — a move that figures to winnow down the number of candidates. Also, the local party is working on a new digital marketing and voter identification project, which Whitaker hopes will bring some disillusioned Republicans “back into the fold.”

And beyond party infrastructure, there are other signs of life for the party that once dominated county politics.

One of the country’s biggest Republican consulting firms, Axiom Strategies, recently opened its first Orange County office. And the National Republican Congressional Committee is taking a page from Democrats’ playbook by recruiting non-white, non-male candidates, something that’s already played out in a couple of local House races.

Still, it’s unclear if such changes address the underlying issues that turned Orange County from red to blue. The GOP’s challenge might run deeper than tactics, and some analysts argue that the party’s support of Donald Trump and a border wall and rolling back environmental rules, among other policies, will make it hard to capture the county’s increasingly diverse, liberal and anti-Trump voting population.

“It’s part of a broader problem that Republicans have: They’re just not very good at voter mobilization,” said Jack Pitney, politics professor at Claremont McKenna College.

“Republicans were great at turning out white people,” Pitney added. “But they’re not so great at turning out other folks.”

Though the GOP already is painting local Democratic incumbents as left of the electorate, it’s tough to say if that will push the outrage button among potential swing voters. Unlike two years ago, when local Democrats were able to mobilize national liberal indignation to help flip Orange County House seats blue, there hasn’t yet been a similar visible groundswell of GOP enthusiasm.

And while it’s still early, it also doesn’t appear that big GOP money will be flowing into local races. Many insiders fear the national GOP and aligned supporters plan to finance efforts to reelect Trump and win House seats in cheaper districts where voters backed Trump in 2016 — neither of which will bring money to the campaigns of GOP challengers in Orange County.

Perhaps because of that, the Republican establishment, so far, is throwing its weight behind familiar names, candidates who leaders believe have the name recognition to raise enough money to be competitive.

The stakes in the GOP’s local comeback attempt are high.

If county Republicans overcome shifting demographics and win back seats in 2020, Whitaker believes the effort could serve as a model for GOP groups across the country who might face similar issues in the years to come.

If they fail, it’s not clear where the party goes next. As of this month, voter registration data shows a GOP advantage over Democrats of just 0.3 percent in Orange County, down from a 1.2 point GOP advantage in November and well off the GOP’s 22 point advantage in the early 1990s. If current trends hold, Democrats will outnumber Republicans in Orange County before the 2020 election.

But projections can be flimsy. Torrun Sinclair, spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said this of any negative predictions for her party:

“Ask Hillary Clinton how well their crystal balls worked in 2016.”

Early endorsements

For a decade, the Republican Party of Orange County had a rule that it had to wait until four months before a primary, at the earliest, before formally endorsing any candidate. That time-frame allowed the filing deadline for candidates to pass and it gave lesser known candidates a chance to raise money and build their campaigns before the party picked its official favorite.

But this year Whitaker said they couldn’t afford to wait that long.

“All (waiting to endorse) does is basically use up Republican volunteers and donors just trying to get through the primary,” Whitaker said. “Then, we would have limited resources going into the general election.”

By endorsing early, Whitaker said, the party can “clear the field” of some candidates while giving others “the time to raise the money needed to put up a fight against the Democratic incumbent in 2020, and not have to worry about Republican warfare in the primary.”

At its May meeting — despite protests from 48th District challengers Brian Burley and James Bradley — the party did just that, endorsing a pair of candidates 10 months before the California primary. The group is backing Orange County Supervisor Michelle Steel in her bid to take the coastal 48th congressional district from Rep. Harley Rouda, D-Laguna Beach. It’s also backing former state Assemblywoman Young Kim in her bid to unseat Rep. Gil Cisneros, D-Yorba Linda, in CA-39, which includes parts of Orange, San Bernardino and Los Angeles counties.

“These seats are going to be multimillion-dollar challenges,” Whitaker said of the endorsed races. Both Steel and Kim, he said, have track records as “terrific fundraisers.” He added that the other Republicans currently in those races “don’t really have the ability to compete.”

The party held off on making any endorsements in Orange County’s other two competitive congressional races. In CA-45, which stretches from Irvine to Mission Viejo and Anaheim, Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, is facing six Republicans. And in the 49th, which straddles south Orange County and north San Diego County, Rep. Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano, is facing two official candidates though only one appears to be mounting a campaign.

At the state level, the GOP has yet to follow the county’s early endorsement strategy. Matt Fleming, spokesman for the California Republican Party, called it “way too soon,” noting that the filing deadline is months away.

Funding is key

As is often true, on both sides of the aisle, conversations about which GOP candidates to back revolve less around policies and more around who can raise the most money.

That’s particularly key for Republicans in Orange County races, since leadership wants candidates who can put up a solid showing even if the national party doesn’t spend much money locally this cycle.

“I don’t expect a lot of Republican money at all coming into California,” said Pitney, who added that the picture could be even bleaker in Southern California. The national GOP, he joked, tends to think California “ends at the Tehachapis.”

One exception, Pitney noted, could be in CA-45, where he said Porter has done such an effective job at grilling big banks and others during committee hearings that those groups could spend heavily to push her out even if the party directs funds elsewhere.

Money is a big reason why insiders say the local GOP is backing Steel. She’s not known as a compelling public speaker and has been solidly aligned with Trump, both of which could be liabilities in a district that supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 and moderate Democrat Rouda last year. But Steel’s husband is prominent in the Republican party, and she’s already busy raising money, largely from Asian American donors outside the county.

One focus for 2020, Whitaker said, is making sure that GOP money raised in Orange County stays in Orange County. Last year, Whitaker said, Republicans spent roughly $16 million defending local congressional seats, a fraction of what he said was $60 million spent by Democrats to flip those seats. So far this year, Democratic incumbents already posted strong first-quarter fundraising numbers.

But Whitaker predicts that campaign spending will be closer to even in 2020, and said “when we’re close, we do well.”

Fleming, with the state GOP, believes there will will be a “decent” GOP investment in Orange County this cycle.

“These races are a high priority,” he said.

More will be known by summer. The deadline for federal candidates to file updated campaign finance reports is July 15.

Getting out the message

In addition to spending more, Whitaker said the local GOP plans to be more aggressive about spreading its message this election cycle.

In 2018, after decades with a reliably Republican base in Orange County, he said, “we didn’t fight hard enough.” That’s why he believes only 85 percent of registered Republicans voted a solid red ticket, as opposed to the usual 95 percent. It’s also why he believes 60 percent of voters without a declared party preference voted for Democrats, instead of the typical 50 percent.

In particular, Whitaker said, Democrats dominated the public conversation about Trump’s Tax Cuts and Job Act. Democrats successfully sold voters on how the plan’s cap on state and local deductions would harm upper middle class families in California. But Whitaker said his party didn’t do a good job of getting out the word that a majority of Americans are seeing at least a temporary cut in their taxes. Also, he said, his party didn’t tap into what he believes is widespread frustration in California about how Sacramento is handling taxation. Those messaging mistakes, Whitaker said, won’t be repeated in 2020.

Whitaker also believes his party has a strong story to tell about the economy and national security, and that both topics will be key to local Republican messaging this election cycle.

The GOP is also clearly focused on labeling incumbent Democrats — here and everywhere — as “socialists.”

“The extreme socialist agenda that these California Democrats have embraced with open arms will be their Achilles heel across these moderate districts in 2020,” said Sinclair with the NRCC, which has an office and staff in Orange County.

“These socialist Democrats have records now, not just pie-in-the-sky ideas. It’s a whole different ballgame.”

However, recent voting trends suggests that tactic might be limited.

In the 49th district, for example, incumbent Levin campaigned openly on the idea that he would push for policies to combat the climate crisis. He beat Republican Dianne Harkey by 12.8 points. And in the 48th, Rouda has arguably come closer to the center since he’s taken office, backing down, for example, from his support for the Medicare-for-all plan that’s currently on the table.

Either way, Pitney noted that the vague term “socialist” doesn’t carry the power that it once had. His college students, in fact, don’t react much to that word at all, he said, associating it less with Cold War super powers such as Russia and more with Scandanavian counties, where universal healthcare and free college tuition aren’t seen as negatives.

Still, whatever message the GOP sends, it will only be effective if voters hear it. In addition to the new digital marketing campaign, Whitaker said his party is planning “candidate days,” bringing challengers to speak in targeted public locations.

State GOP spokesman Fleming suggested a similar emphasis is underway throughout California. “There’s a lot more attention being paid to how we go to door-to-door, and how we engage voters.”

Still, while Democrats were eager to connect the Register with local activists who are already canvassing for votes in Orange County, no one from the local, state or federal GOP could pair this reporter with Republicans currently hitting the streets. All said it is “too early” for that type of engagement.

Scott Baugh, former chair of the Orange County GOP who failed in his bid last year to represent CA-48, said Republicans need to be aggressively building infrastructure to engage voters now.

“If they don’t get out there, they will not enjoy success in Orange County,” he said, potentially losing the area for some time.

The Trump factor

One of the biggest questions is how Trump’s popularity will affect down-ballot races in 2020.

Some of the 2018 midterm losses for local Republicans were, according to party leaders, at least partly a result of people casting de-facto votes against Trump, who wasn’t on the ballot.

Trump was on the ballot in 2016 and, as Whitaker said, he “was who he was.” In that cycle, he added, local voters preferred Clinton for president, but “voted heavily for all of its Republican legislators.”

Whitaker said it could happen again next year.

“For those people that have a problem with the president, he’ll be on the ballot and they can vote for somebody else instead of him,” Whitaker said. But in the House races and other down-ballot choices, he added, those voters can “come back to their natural home.”

Fleming said Trump will be less of an issue for Republicans running for local and state offices.

“Democrats can talk about Trump all they want,” Fleming said. “But the truth is Donald Trump didn’t cause the problems in California.”

Another factor that could be problematic for the GOP is makeup of next year’s electorate. Younger people and Democrats tend to turn out in much greater numbers for presidential elections than they do for midterms, and polling suggests both groups are strongly opposed to Trump and many Republican policies.

That history, as much as anything, is why analysts such as Pitney believe Orange County’s GOP revival probably won’t happen in the next election.

Though he’s not rooting for any failure in the White House, Pitney argues that the GOP’s best hope, politically, is for “Trump’s Democratic successor to fail.”

That, he says, is the one way he sees a quick opening for Republicans to regain the upper hand in Orange County.