tl;dr (3/24/2020):

(1) Total deaths in one month in the US will be 416K at the current rate.

(2) If US locks down like Italy, total deaths in one month drops to 10K – and 6K if our efforts are halfway between Italy’s and China’s (and 3K if like China).

(3) Not fully locking down will result in 1K – 15K additional deaths per day (grows each day) we wait over the next month.

I did some quick analysis over the latest death data (see image below):

Here’s the spreadsheet with the data and math.

The death count and cost of each day we don’t drop the hammer and implement a complete national lockdown need to be reported and acted on before it’s too late …

I do hope I’m wrong (for ex. Italy’s and US’s daily deaths stabilize soon) and/or we can course correct ASAP to save lives.