You might’ve heard the term “flatten the curve” when it comes to containing the coronavirus. The term “flatten the curve” in epidemiology is the curve that refers to the projected number of new cases over time. The objective of flattening the curve is to stagger the number of new patients over a longer duration of time. Therefore, healthcare can be accessible to all diagnosed patients without overwhelming the healthcare system, as shown in the chart below.



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In recent weeks, the number of cases has increased across America. WHO has characterized the virus as a pandemic, and now is the time to act. The most imperative thing we can do is try to flatten the curve at the rate that the virus is spreading. Some necessary actions we can take to try to limit the spread of the disease include:



Social Distancing

One way to decrease the number of patients is to practice social distancing. The act of social distancing applies to specific measures taken by Public Health officials to stop or reduce the spread of a highly contagious disease. These actions are aimed to reduce the amount of the virus spreading, and protect those most vulnerable such as people with weakened immune systems and the elderly. Experts recommend that it’s vital to stay at least 6 feet away from others since researchers discovered the virus is transmitted through droplets. When an infected individual speaks, exhales, coughs, or sneezes, the droplets from their mouth and nose travels approximately 3 to 6 feet before gravity pulls them to the ground. Applying social distancing to our daily lives can ultimately reduce the number of people infected.



Containment

To effectively contain the virus, you must ensure all cases are identified, controlled, and isolated. These steps were carried out by Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, and Hong Kong. All provinces intervened quickly by wearing protective gear while locating infected individuals and placing them in isolation. China also conducted prompt tactics resulting in 1,800 teams of 5 people that tracked every infected person, who they were in close contact with, and then placed them in isolation. Performing these actions allowed China to contain the virus without spreading any further across the population.

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The chart above depicts the effects of the travel ban enforced by Wuhan that helped in delaying the epidemic. The bubble sizes indicate the number of daily cases. The top line illustrates the number of cases if nothing is done. The two other lines display the impact if 40%, and 90% of travel is eradicated. This is a model created by epidemiologists since we cannot determine certainty.

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In the chart above, the top block is similar to the one you’ve seen before. The other two blocks show the number of transmission rates decreasing. If the transmission rate reduces by 25% through social distancing, it flattens the curve and suspends the peak by a total of 14 weeks. If you lower the transition rate by 50%, then you cannot see the epidemic emerge within a quarter.



The European travel ban authorized by the United States spared a few days, perhaps even hours, but not enough time to stop the virus. Once there are hundreds or thousands of patients infected within a population, preventing, tracking existing cases, and isolating their contacts becomes an insufficient solution. The next step to eliminate the spread of the disease is to move on to the mitigation phase.



Mitigation

The mitigation phase consists of an escalated form of social distancing. These measures include shutting down all kinds of social gatherings such as concerts, businesses, and public places. The severity of transmission from the virus can result in more closures. Just recently, the stay-at-home order was issued by California Governor Gavin Newsom due to the number of cases climbing in the state. Observing the progress in Wuhan by closing down businesses ordering people to stay at home, this is something that can slow the progression of the infection.

Take Action

The time to act is now by following safety measures set in place from the federal and state governments in the U.S. that can result in recovery, as China has. California has taken steps to contain the virus by Gov. Newsom, issuing the stay-at-home order. If we work together and follow the proper procedures recommended by the CDC, do you think our economy and health could improve sooner than expected? Let us know in the comments!



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