(CNN) Political Washington is in the midst of a heated debate over what -- if anything -- the somewhat-closer-than-expected special election in Kansas on Tuesday means for next November's midterm elections.

No matter where you come down on that question -- I think there were clear warning signs for Republicans in their victory -- the history of the first midterm election of a newly-elected president should scare Republicans tasked with retaining their House majority in 2018.

This chart, which comes via the highly-sought-after quarterly PowerPoint presentation from Republican lobbyist Bruce Mehlman , is one Republicans should save and remind themselves of every day between now and next November.

The president's party usually takes a beating in midterm elections

If past is prologue, then Mehlman's chart suggests that Republicans will face across-the-board losses in 2018 and could even lose control of the US House.

The chart documents seat losses in the House, Senate, state legislatures and governor's mansions in the first midterm election of the last eight presidents -- from John F. Kennedy in 1962 to Barack Obama in 2010.

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