If the Houston-Galveston region continues to boom for the next 60 years and sea level rises as scientists predict, a direct hit to Galveston from a massive hurricane could destroy an estimated $31.8 billion worth of homes, a new study says.

But Texas A&M researchers found that if the government builds a 17-foot barrier about 60 miles long from Galveston Island to Bolivar Peninsula, the potential residential destruction from a storm surge would drop to about $6 billion – a reduction of more than 80 percent.

The only problem: So far, Texas can't get congressional funding to build the coastal barrier, a proposal that has been floated since Hurricane Ike threatened to make a run for Galveston in 2008.

"The numbers make sense," said state Sen. Larry Taylor, a Friendswood Republican who has tried for years to get federal funding for a coastal barrier, estimated to cost up to $12 billion. "This investment is going to pay for itself time and time again."

The cost-benefit numbers could change with additional data: The A&M study only looked at damages to homes and apartments from a storm surge – not flooding caused by rainfall – and excludes the potential harm to the region's commercial buildings and its bustling ports.

After Hurricane Harvey hit the Texas coast in August, Taylor and other supporters of the coastal barrier saw their opportunity. Both City of Houston and state officials asked the federal government to include $12 billion for a barrier as part of their post-Harvey aid requests.

But the $81 billion disaster relief package passed by the House on Dec. 21 – which also includes aid for storm victims in Florida, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands – does not appear to include funding for the barrier. The Senate recessed for the holidays before taking up the disaster relief funding.

The storm relief likely will become part of the negotiations for an all-inclusive 2018 spending bill to be considered by the Jan. 19 deadline for lawmakers to continue funding the federal government, said U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.

U.S. Rep. Randy Weber, a Friendswood Republican, said some Republican lawmakers have pushed back against funding infrastructure as part of disaster relief, warning it sets a bad precedent.

Weber said he hopes to get the coastal barrier included in an infrastructure package if efforts to include it in disaster relief ultimately fail.

"This is foolish for us to just keep paying for these disasters over and over and over again," Weber said. "How about something to prevent this from happening on the next go around?"

State officials say they are willing to chip in for construction of a barrier, but can't – and shouldn't have to – pay for it alone.

A spokesperson for Gov. Greg Abbott said he was working with Congress on a Harvey recovery package but did not address state funding for the coastal barrier.

"The package is a work in progress and Governor Abbott continues to work with Congress to fight for the funds necessary to rebuild after Harvey," said Ciara Matthews, deputy communications director.

The Texas General Land Office already has dedicated more than $15 million toward studying coastal protection, the bulk of it going to a joint $20 million study with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers that is expected to generate possible construction recommendations by this summer.

"There's no question that the state is going to tap the Rainy Day Fund to pay for Harvey costs, but should the state pay the entire cost for the Ike Dike? No," said state Sen. Paul Bettencourt, R-Houston, a confidante of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick who heads one of several special Senate committees studying Harvey. "That's absolutely unrealistic to even suggest that. Let's recognize the obvious: The state doesn't have to money to do that.

"Should the state pay something? Yes," he said. "Should the feds and local governments chip in? Yes. This is what the feds are for, is to take the lead on projects like this. This is a project that will take collaboration to get it done."

A wall of water

For years, academics and lawmakers have warned of the potential danger of a direct-hit hurricane for the Houston-Galveston region. Hurricane Ike in 2008 looked as if it might slam into Galveston, but it veered away before landfall.

Hurricane Harvey slammed into Rockport, about three hours south of Houston, in August and dumped rain for days, creating epic flooding in Houston. As bad as Harvey was, Weber said, the region still "dodged a bullet" compared to what would happen if a hurricane slammed directly into Galveston and sent a wall of water up the 44-mile Houston Ship Channel.

In March, Weber and other members of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee visited the Netherlands to see the massive barrier system installed there after a flood killed thousands.

"I've looked at their gates. They hold back the sea," Weber said. "And by golly, if they do it over there, why can't we do it over here? It's not a matter of if we get another hurricane. It's simply when."

The Houston Chronicle also visited the Netherlands after Harvey to explore possible solutions to the flooding here. One of the main lessons: There's a short window to get plans in motion for big-picture projects.

What the project may ultimately involve is still up in the air.

Texas A&M professor Bill Merrell proposed the idea of building a barrier after Ike hit the coast, causing an estimated $30 billion in damages. Modeled after a system built by the Dutch, the idea eventually secured backing by the state, which created a public corporation in 2010 to study its feasibility.

But with the economy still in recovery mode, and no funding for the public corporation until 2013, the project seemed to progress in fits and starts, beset by opposing visions among academics and concerns about its potential environmental impact.

'Largest engineering feats'

Texas A&M and Rice University researchers have extensively studied the coastal barrier and have floated proposals that vary widely in scope and price, but are all in the billions.

The General Land Office and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reached an agreement in 2015 to split the cost of a study to evaluate risk reduction and ecosystem restoration along the Texas coast. The study involves analyzing four different options for coastal protection, including building barriers, levees and surge gates.

The Corps expects to publish a draft study with construction recommendations in the summer of 2018 and a final report by 2021.

"I believe this will lead to one of the largest engineering feats of the 21st century," Col. Lars Zetterstrom, the Army Corps' Galveston District commander, told a state legislative committee in October.

Taylor, the Friendswood lawmaker who is co-chair of the state's Joint Interim Committee to Study a Coastal Barrier System, said although the project's construction as yet remains unfunded, he is not giving up hope – far from it.

Taylor noted that President Donald J. Trump has signaled support for infrastructure projects, and cited the general momentum toward mitigation post-Harvey.

"I think this is our best opportunity," he said. "If we don't get it done in this next year, our chances start diminishing."

The Army Corps has about $60 billion in authorized construction projects nationally that compete each year for money based on their cost-benefit ratio, said Edmond Russo, the Corps' deputy district engineer for programs and project management in Galveston.

"It's a very competitive process," he said.

State Sen. Sylvia Garcia, a Democrat who represents Houston's East End and parts of Pasadena, Galena Park and Baytown, said the project is simply "taking too long," considering what is at stake.

"We've studied this thing enough," she said. "It's time for action."

A direct hit from a hurricane is "probably the greatest risk to our region," she said, "and it is increasing each day."

***

DEVELOPING STORM: Hurricane Harvey was the most destructive storm in Houston's history. The late-August storm dumped up to 60 inches of rain on southeast Texas, but the resulting damage was multiplied by actions taken ¬– and not taken – during the past 50 years. Our seven-part series explains why the storm's damage was both a natural and man-made disaster.

Part 1: Nature ruled, man reacted. Hurricane Harvey was Houston's reckoning

Part 2: Build, flood, rebuild: flood insurance's expensive cycle

Part 3: What's in Houston's worst flood zones? Development worth $13.5 billion

Part 4: Harvey overwhelmed some levee systems. Future storms could do worse.

Part 5: Officials patched and prayed while pressure built on Houston's dams

Part 6: For buyers within 'flood pools,' no warnings from developers, public officials

Part 7: In Harvey's wake, Dutch have much to teach Houston

Click here to read all of our Harvey coverage.

GET ENGAGED:

— Where do we go from here? Seven Houston-area leaders discussed flooding causes and solutions at a Greater Houston After Harvey forum hosted by the Houston Chronicle in early December. Watch Wednesday night's keynote address by Jim Blackburn, co-director of Rice University's Severe Storm Prediction, Education and Evacuation from Disasters (SSPEED) Center. Read his thoughts on living around water.

— Sign up for our Facebook community to share your Harvey story, engage with other community members and ask our reporters questions.

— Join the discussion on Twitter: #HoustonAfterHarvey.

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