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A TargetSmart/William & Mary poll to be released Wednesday, but which was shared early with MSNBC, shows that Donald Trump is in trouble in the critical state of Florida.

According to the poll, 28 percent of early GOP voters say they have cast their votes for Hillary Clinton. According to that same poll, only 6 percent of Democrats have cast their ballot for Trump.

Unsurprisingly, the Clinton campaign says it “feels good” about Florida, but are not taking it for granted and expect it to “come down to the wire,” as MSNBC’s Kristen Welker reports.

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And with good reason: Not only have Florida Republicans done their level best to suppress the minority vote, but the Florida polls show a close race.

Watch courtesy of MSNBC:

According to Real Clear Politics, Trump currently leads polls overall 45.9 to 45.1, or by +0.8. On the other hand, a Florida poll of early and likely voters shows Clinton up over Trump 48 to 40, or +8. Among early voters, the numbers are even worse for Trump, at 55 to 37.

Clinton had three events in Florida Tuesday. The LA Times’ Mike Memoli tweeted the enthusiasm Trump’s camp says doesn’t exist in Clinton’s:

"I could be here all night!" a feisty @HillaryClinton says just shy of 10:30pm in Ft Lauderdale, her 3rd stop today pic.twitter.com/FIFas62Fkh — Mike Memoli (@mikememoli) November 2, 2016

Unsurprisingly, Trump has three rallies in Florida today, in Miami at noon, Orlando at 4, and Pensacola tonight at 7. The calculus is unforgiving: Clinton can win the election without Florida, but without Florida, Trump is doomed to lose.