Because it takes it takes 910 at bats for batting average to stabilize, it is not very helpful to look at the small sample of at bats a player has had in 2014 (as the video below will show).

When you try to decide whether or not to by into a player’s early season slump or success, you have to look a bit deeper.

So we will look at the players that are projected, by Steamer, to outperform or underperform their current batting average by the largest margin for the rest of the season.

Below are some players that should outperform or underperform their current batting averages, according to their Steamer projections.

Batting Average Risers and Fallers

Name April AVG ROS AVG AVG Diff Daniel Nava 0.149 0.262 0.113 J.B. Shuck 0.156 0.263 0.107 Yonder Alonso 0.167 0.27 0.103 Mike Moustakas 0.149 0.25 0.101 Pablo Sandoval 0.177 0.277 0.1 Marc Krauss 0.13 0.229 0.099 Jedd Gyorko 0.151 0.25 0.099 David Lough 0.172 0.27 0.098 Carlos Santana 0.151 0.244 0.093 Brad Miller 0.174 0.263 0.089 Jordy Mercer 0.167 0.251 0.084 Ryan Goins 0.15 0.233 0.083 Prince Fielder 0.206 0.286 0.08 Carl Crawford 0.194 0.271 0.077 Curtis Granderson 0.136 0.212 0.076 Alexi Amarista 0.172 0.246 0.074 Brett Lawrie 0.192 0.264 0.072 Ryan Raburn 0.164 0.236 0.072 Alejandro De Aza 0.185 0.256 0.071 David Freese 0.193 0.264 0.071 Michael Choice 0.204 0.274 0.07 Chris Carter 0.153 0.222 0.069 Pedro Alvarez 0.172 0.24 0.068 Raul Ibanez 0.157 0.225 0.068 Allen Craig 0.22 0.288 0.068 Chase Headley 0.186 0.252 0.066 Zack Cozart 0.18 0.244 0.064 George Springer 0.182 0.245 0.063 Billy Butler 0.224 0.287 0.063 Jason Heyward 0.206 0.262 0.056 Jhonny Peralta 0.196 0.252 0.056 Will Venable 0.198 0.253 0.055 David DeJesus 0.19 0.243 0.053 Mike Olt 0.164 0.216 0.052 Cody Asche 0.2 0.251 0.051 Carlos Gonzalez 0.241 0.29 0.049 Colby Rasmus 0.194 0.241 0.047 Ike Davis 0.196 0.242 0.046 Ryan Flaherty 0.188 0.232 0.044 Miguel Cabrera 0.277 0.321 0.044 Matt Kemp 0.225 0.268 0.043 Elvis Andrus 0.229 0.272 0.043 Denard Span 0.233 0.275 0.042 Mark Trumbo 0.21 0.252 0.042 Starling Marte 0.229 0.27 0.041 Abraham Almonte 0.204 0.245 0.041 Chris Johnson 0.231 0.272 0.041 Andre Ethier 0.227 0.268 0.041 Eric Sogard 0.217 0.257 0.04 Kyle Seager 0.229 0.266 0.037 Salvador Perez 0.245 0.282 0.037 Asdrubal Cabrera 0.22 0.256 0.036 Wilin Rosario 0.244 0.279 0.035 Brian McCann 0.224 0.259 0.035 Kolten Wong 0.225 0.26 0.035 Aaron Hicks 0.188 0.223 0.035 Nick Castellanos 0.233 0.267 0.034 Ian Desmond 0.232 0.266 0.034 Nick Swisher 0.211 0.245 0.034 Grady Sizemore 0.208 0.242 0.034 Nate Schierholtz 0.217 0.251 0.034 Neil Walker 0.235 0.268 0.033 Jean Segura 0.244 0.276 0.032 Travis d'Arnaud 0.209 0.241 0.032 Yunel Escobar 0.219 0.251 0.032 David Ortiz 0.25 0.282 0.032 Junior Lake 0.221 0.252 0.031 Buster Posey 0.264 0.295 0.031 Jay Bruce 0.22 0.25 0.03 Ruben Tejada 0.221 0.249 0.028 Brian Dozier 0.216 0.243 0.027 Jason Kipnis 0.234 0.26 0.026 Travis Snider 0.227 0.252 0.025 Donnie Murphy 0.22 0.244 0.024 Corey Hart 0.24 0.262 0.022 Alex Presley 0.242 0.263 0.021 Brian Roberts 0.222 0.243 0.021 Jason Castro 0.22 0.24 0.02 Eric Young 0.215 0.235 0.02 David Wright 0.262 0.281 0.019 Martin Prado 0.263 0.282 0.019 Michael Brantley 0.255 0.273 0.018 Gerardo Parra 0.256 0.274 0.018 Luis Valbuena 0.218 0.236 0.018 Alex Avila 0.22 0.238 0.018 Joe Mauer 0.276 0.294 0.018 Carlos Beltran 0.263 0.28 0.017 Chris Davis 0.25 0.267 0.017 Kelly Johnson 0.219 0.236 0.017 Dustin Pedroia 0.27 0.287 0.017 Kole Calhoun 0.25 0.266 0.016 Aaron Hill 0.25 0.266 0.016 Omar Infante 0.277 0.293 0.016 Matt Carpenter 0.264 0.279 0.015 Edwin Encarnacion 0.25 0.264 0.014 Brandon Belt 0.255 0.269 0.014 Matt Dominguez 0.231 0.245 0.014 Norichika Aoki 0.284 0.297 0.013 Andrew McCutchen 0.286 0.298 0.012 Domonic Brown 0.253 0.265 0.012 Jonny Gomes 0.23 0.242 0.012 Joey Votto 0.28 0.292 0.012 Josmil Pinto 0.246 0.257 0.011 J.J. Hardy 0.242 0.253 0.011 A.J. Pollock 0.258 0.268 0.01 Wil Myers 0.245 0.255 0.01 B.J. Upton 0.213 0.223 0.01 Khris Davis 0.238 0.248 0.01 Marcus Semien 0.225 0.235 0.01 Yasiel Puig 0.276 0.286 0.01 Adam Jones 0.265 0.274 0.009 Jose Tabata 0.262 0.271 0.009 Jackie Bradley Jr 0.244 0.252 0.008 Dexter Fowler 0.231 0.239 0.008 Hunter Pence 0.262 0.269 0.007 Brandon Phillips 0.255 0.262 0.007 Alex Gordon 0.27 0.276 0.006 Jon Jay 0.269 0.275 0.006 Dan Uggla 0.202 0.208 0.006 Jose Altuve 0.276 0.282 0.006 Derek Jeter 0.272 0.276 0.004 Matt Holliday 0.283 0.287 0.004 DJ LeMahieu 0.291 0.295 0.004 Albert Pujols 0.279 0.281 0.002 Brandon Hicks 0.213 0.215 0.002 Yoenis Cespedes 0.258 0.26 0.002 Dustin Ackley 0.256 0.258 0.002 Robinson Chirinos 0.232 0.233 0.001 Yan Gomes 0.25 0.251 0.001 Billy Hamilton 0.245 0.246 0.001 Giancarlo Stanton 0.269 0.269 0 Yasmani Grandal 0.254 0.254 0 Jose Abreu 0.27 0.269 -0.001 Hanley Ramirez 0.276 0.275 -0.001 Ryan Hanigan 0.241 0.24 -0.001 Jonathan Schoop 0.241 0.24 -0.001 Robinson Cano 0.296 0.294 -0.002 Mitch Moreland 0.254 0.251 -0.003 Mark Reynolds 0.224 0.22 -0.004 John Jaso 0.241 0.237 -0.004 Michael Bourn 0.263 0.259 -0.004 Todd Frazier 0.247 0.242 -0.005 Jonathan Villar 0.241 0.236 -0.005 Victor Martinez 0.298 0.293 -0.005 Aramis Ramirez 0.277 0.271 -0.006 A.J. Pierzynski 0.274 0.268 -0.006 Adam Eaton 0.281 0.274 -0.007 Erick Aybar 0.28 0.272 -0.008 Garrett Jones 0.25 0.242 -0.008 Jayson Werth 0.288 0.279 -0.009 Josh Reddick 0.241 0.232 -0.009 Seth Smith 0.257 0.248 -0.009 Josh Donaldson 0.279 0.268 -0.011 Alberto Callaspo 0.269 0.258 -0.011 Jimmy Rollins 0.25 0.238 -0.012 Alfonso Soriano 0.247 0.235 -0.012 Russell Martin 0.242 0.229 -0.013 Xander Bogaerts 0.278 0.265 -0.013 Bryce Harper 0.289 0.275 -0.014 Eric Hosmer 0.301 0.287 -0.014 Chris Iannetta 0.233 0.218 -0.015 Justin Smoak 0.25 0.235 -0.015 Ryan Howard 0.255 0.24 -0.015 Torii Hunter 0.3 0.285 -0.015 Mike Trout 0.321 0.305 -0.016 Brandon Crawford 0.259 0.243 -0.016 Evan Gattis 0.27 0.253 -0.017 Ryan Ludwick 0.26 0.243 -0.017 Anthony Rizzo 0.283 0.265 -0.018 David Murphy 0.282 0.264 -0.018 Howie Kendrick 0.296 0.277 -0.019 Nick Markakis 0.3 0.281 -0.019 Brandon Moss 0.264 0.245 -0.019 Coco Crisp 0.278 0.259 -0.019 Ian Kinsler 0.283 0.263 -0.02 Miguel Montero 0.278 0.258 -0.02 Andrelton Simmons 0.289 0.268 -0.021 Evan Longoria 0.286 0.264 -0.022 Ben Revere 0.299 0.277 -0.022 Lucas Duda 0.253 0.231 -0.022 Brett Gardner 0.279 0.257 -0.022 Jed Lowrie 0.286 0.263 -0.023 Shin-Soo Choo 0.303 0.28 -0.023 Jonathan Lucroy 0.295 0.271 -0.024 Steve Lombardozzi 0.292 0.268 -0.024 Welington Castillo 0.276 0.252 -0.024 Marlon Byrd 0.277 0.253 -0.024 Adrian Gonzalez 0.317 0.292 -0.025 Ryan Braun 0.318 0.293 -0.025 Scooter Gennett 0.302 0.276 -0.026 Nolan Arenado 0.31 0.284 -0.026 Carlos Ruiz 0.297 0.27 -0.027 Daniel Murphy 0.304 0.277 -0.027 Austin Jackson 0.307 0.28 -0.027 Alcides Escobar 0.287 0.26 -0.027 Jose Lobaton 0.266 0.239 -0.027 Everth Cabrera 0.284 0.256 -0.028 Nelson Cruz 0.284 0.255 -0.029 Michael Cuddyer 0.317 0.288 -0.029 Starlin Castro 0.308 0.278 -0.03 Christian Yelich 0.292 0.262 -0.03 James Loney 0.301 0.27 -0.031 Freddie Freeman 0.32 0.289 -0.031 Jose Bautista 0.293 0.261 -0.032 Jacoby Ellsbury 0.312 0.278 -0.034 Ben Zobrist 0.302 0.267 -0.035 Desmond Jennings 0.279 0.244 -0.035 Adeiny Hechavarria 0.28 0.245 -0.035 Paul Goldschmidt 0.323 0.287 -0.036 Chris Colabello 0.295 0.257 -0.038 Carlos Gomez 0.293 0.253 -0.04 Leonys Martin 0.308 0.267 -0.041 Yangervis Solarte 0.303 0.262 -0.041 Mike Zunino 0.274 0.233 -0.041 Anthony Rendon 0.316 0.274 -0.042 Josh Wilson 0.273 0.228 -0.045 Chris Owings 0.313 0.267 -0.046 Alex Rios 0.321 0.275 -0.046 Michael Morse 0.302 0.256 -0.046 Chris Denorfia 0.314 0.266 -0.048 Jason Kubel 0.288 0.239 -0.049 Casey McGehee 0.297 0.247 -0.05 Dioner Navarro 0.311 0.261 -0.05 Conor Gillaspie 0.302 0.251 -0.051 Mike Napoli 0.305 0.252 -0.053 Matt Adams 0.321 0.268 -0.053 Melky Cabrera 0.342 0.288 -0.054 Justin Upton 0.326 0.271 -0.055 Marcell Ozuna 0.31 0.254 -0.056 Adam LaRoche 0.312 0.256 -0.056 Kurt Suzuki 0.302 0.246 -0.056 Justin Morneau 0.343 0.286 -0.057 Yadier Molina 0.35 0.292 -0.058 Adam Dunn 0.269 0.211 -0.058 Danny Espinosa 0.288 0.229 -0.059 Troy Tulowitzki 0.364 0.305 -0.059 Trevor Plouffe 0.304 0.245 -0.059 Juan Uribe 0.305 0.243 -0.062 Angel Pagan 0.34 0.278 -0.062 Rajai Davis 0.333 0.268 -0.065 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.299 0.232 -0.067 Alexei Ramirez 0.351 0.273 -0.078 Emilio Bonifacio 0.337 0.258 -0.079 Matt Joyce 0.328 0.248 -0.08 Brandon Barnes 0.345 0.264 -0.081 Dayan Viciedo 0.348 0.266 -0.082 Matt Wieters 0.338 0.254 -0.084 Dee Gordon 0.344 0.255 -0.089 Chase Utley 0.355 0.263 -0.092 Charlie Blackmon 0.374 0.282 -0.092 Tyler Flowers 0.354 0.215 -0.139 Derek Norris 0.386 0.24 -0.146

Players to Buy Low

These good guys make for good buys in the coming weeks, despite their slow start to the season.

Carlos Santana, C/1B/3B, Cleveland

Santana, to the chagrin of many Fantasy owners, has batted .151, but there have been many reasons to expect Santana to live up to his .245 rest of season projection. With increased walk rates—BB% (2013: 14.5%, 2014: 19.1%) — and plate discipline — O-Swing% (2013: 25.8%, 2014: 17.3%) — Santana has been a more patient hitter.

At its essence, Santana’s struggles have stemmed from his fall to an 11.8 LD%. While line-drive rates show a low year-to-year correlation, Fantasy owners should expect Santana’s LD% to regress back to his career average of 18.7%, and increase his AVG along the way.

Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit

Like Santana, Prince Fielder’s walk rate has improved from 2013, while his average has decreased. Fielder did not have a month in all of 2013 where he hit under .228, not that that’s an impressive number, but it’s a lot more desirable than the tango he has done with the Mendoza line in April. But here’s the kicker. The league average BABIP on line drives is .682, and Fielder’s career average BABIP on line drives is .727. Compare that with the .563 BABIP on line drives that Fielder had in April, and we can be certain that a lot of the hard hit balls Fielder hit right at opponents in the first month will begin to find empty space and increase his average.

Players to Sell High

Get ready to move some of these players, as they are off to uncharacteristically hot starts, which means they should dip back down soon.

Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia

Utley has hit sixty-five points over his career average BABIP in 2014, and surprise surprise, he has hit almost exactly sixty-five points over his career AVG this year. More importantly, like Marcus Giles, Edgardo Elfanso, Carlos Baerga, and Chuck Knoblauch, Ultely has been to fall apart from a physical perspective over the recent years. The combination of the regression that will come in Utley’s BABIP and his physical durability, make him a good sell high candidate. Look to see if your leagues Jedd Gyorko owner has grown impatient.

A Player We’re Not Sure What to Do With

This guy falls into a category we’re not sure how to handle.

Alexei Ramirez, SS, Chicago White Sox

I’m not sure what to make of these numbers, partly because I’m not sure when plate discipline numbers stabilize, although, I would assume it happens quickly.

Ramirez has swung less at pitches in the strike zone — Z-Swing% (2013: 69.3%, 2014: 63.5%) — and made more contact with pitches in the strike zone — Z-Contact% (2013: 93.5%, 2014: 97.5%). While it remains outside the knowledge of the author on whether or not there is an inverse correlation between Z-Swing% and Z-Contact%, it intuitively makes sense.

If a hitter begins to lay off of pitches as pitchers attack his weaknesses, even though those pitches may be strikes, and only swings at strikes he knows he can mash, he should be able to make more contact with pitches that are strikes because he doesn’t swing at pitches he can’t handle.

Devin Jordan is obsessed with statistical analysis, non-fiction literature, and electronic music. If you enjoyed reading him, follow him on Twitter @devinjjordan.