Joey Garrison

USA Today Network - Tennessee

Trump is considered the front-runner in Tennessee's March 1 primary.

The New York business mogul did well among evangelical voters in South Carolina.

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has a pastor campaign chairman for all 95 counties in Tennessee.

Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida on Sunday drew a crowd of at least 3,500 in Franklin and says he can unite the GOP.

Pundits and party insiders spent months predicting the demise of Donald Trump and explaining why it would happen.

He would say something offensive to derail his run for president. His past record would prove he’s not a real conservative. The so-called Republican establishment would eventually put its foot down and coalesce around another candidate.

But now as the GOP presidential nomination process turns national and moves into Tennessee — one of 12 states that votes on March 1 — the brash celebrity New York real estate mogul is riding high and considered a clear front-runner here.

Even before his decisive win in South Carolina on Saturday, the straight-talking, polarizing Trump led Ted Cruz in Tennessee by 16 percentage points, according to one of the most recent polls in Tennessee. But South Carolina’s results were the clearest proof yet that Trump’s appeal is resonating in the “Bible Belt” South, where voters who identify as evangelicals are crucial in Republican primaries.

He has defied what was once conventional wisdom.

Many had considered evangelicals overwhelmingly in the corner of Cruz, a firebrand conservative U.S. senator from Texas whose campaign rallies have mirrored revivals. The Cruz campaign long ago circled the "SEC primary" on March 1 — when voting occurs in seven Southern states, including Tennessee — to create a path to the nomination.

But while Cruz remains popular among politically active Christians — and is still leaning on that Southern strategy — exit polling from Saturday’s primary in South Carolina showed Trump actually beat Cruz among evangelical voters.

That surprising takeaway has further solidified Trump as the favorite to win Tennessee, according to some political experts.

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“If you just take a look at the South across the board — maybe Texas is the exception — Donald Trump is leading in every single poll,” Vanderbilt University political scientist John Geer said. “He’s certainly leading I think in Tennessee at this particular moment.

“The Nevada results on Tuesday are probably only going to reinforce his status as the front-runner. The candidates right now are trying to figure where they can finish second in a strong way. It could be a pretty big night for him in the state of Tennessee, plus much of the South.”

Political observers have debated how a billionaire from Manhattan who rarely discusses his faith — and has a propensity to offend — has attracted a seemingly strong following from Southern evangelicals.

Trump has made an emotional connection with voters angry about the country's direction under President Barack Obama. He’s won big among working-class Republican voters. And he's regularly set to take on “political correctness,” an area that has long been a battle cry for conservatives.

How evangelicals will influence Tennessee's GOP primary

Tennessee Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, ahead of voting in Iowa last month, predicted to reporters that Trump would win the GOP nomination and later be elected president in November. Though he stopped short of endorsing his candidacy, he explained the Trump phenomenon by arguing that people are upset with government right now.

“Trump is saying things that, even if you don’t agree with him, people are saying, ‘Dang, that took guts to say that,’ ” Ramsey said. He later added that Trump is “savvy enough” to make a good president. “We’ll all scratch our heads and ask how this happened, but I think he will.”

In a statement Monday, Ramsey — though still opting not to endorse and calling all five candidates "excellent options" — said Trump has “electrified the Republican base and independent voters” with his “Make America Great Again” message.

Marco Rubio touts role as unifier at Franklin event

“He has emerged as the clear front-runner in this race and, as I predicted weeks ago, is in a strong position to claim the nomination,” Ramsey said.

Although retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Ohio Gov. John Kasich remain in the contest, polling has shown a three-person race between Trump, Cruz and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida in most states. Kasich is scheduled to visit Tennessee on Saturday.

Rubio, touting momentum after his second-place finish in South Carolina, made his first campaign stop in Middle Tennessee on Sunday, appearing before a crowd of at least 3,500 outside the Embassy Suites in Franklin. Some observers believe he could perform well with suburban voters in Tennessee and attract voters previously committed to Jeb Bush, who dropped out of the race on Saturday.

Rubio used Sunday’s event to frame himself as the candidate who can best unite the party. He also noted that Tennessee doles out Republican delegates on a proportional basis, meaning he could finish second and get almost as many delegates as the candidate who finishes first.

Sen. Jack Johnson, R-Franklin, a Rubio supporter, called Rubio “the most effective at articulating the conservative message and values" of all candidates. And yet even Johnson is giving Trump an edge at the moment.

“Let’s shoot straight: Donald Trump is far and away the front-runner,” Johnson said. “But with Bush out and Kasich at least assumed to be out — maybe not by March 1, but I think Kasich supporters are going to say our guy doesn’t have a chance — you’re going to see some of that support peel off. And I think Senator Rubio has a real opportunity to potentially take some of that support.”

The Rubio and Cruz campaigns over the past few months have assembled more visible ground games in Tennessee than Trump, who has gotten a huge boost from his national media attention but also has visited Middle Tennessee twice.

Cruz, who has campaign stops planned for Friday and Saturday in Nashville, leads all Republican candidates with 18 endorsements from Tennessee state lawmakers. He’s tapped into the state’s network of Christian leaders by appointing a pastor campaign chairman in all 95 counties in Tennessee. And he has endorsements from some of the state’s most active tea party leaders.

But is Trump too much to stop at this point?

“He clearly comes with momentum,” said former conservative radio talk show host Steve Gill, who is backing Cruz.

As reasons why Cruz can still win in Tennessee, Gill pointed to Tennessee’s last two Republican primary winners, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in 2008 and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum from Pennsylvania in 2012. Both were favorites of evangelical voters who, like Cruz, won the Iowa caucuses.

“Who wins it?” Gill said. “You would have to think that Trump has the edge right now. But again, when you look at Tennessee’s history with Santorum and Huckabee winning the last two primaries, despite the fact that you had (Mitt) Romney and (John) McCain coming to the state with pretty big momentum, shows that that conservative, evangelical base is pretty strong. And if Cruz can capture that then he should do pretty well in Tennessee.”

Meanwhile, it is unclear whether any of Tennessee’s top three Republicans — Gov. Bill Haslam, Sen. Lamar Alexander and Sen. Bob Corker — will endorse a presidential candidate over the next week.

Many of Haslam’s top allies in Tennessee, including Republican strategist Tom Ingram, had previously backed Bush, though Haslam has not formally endorsed anyone.

Corker and Alexander appeared at the Shelby County Republican Party’s annual Lincoln Day event over the weekend and discussed the Tennessee primary. At an appearance at Belmont University on Monday, Corker said he is not currently endorsing anyone in the Tennessee primary.

Reporters Dave Boucher and Joel Ebert contributed to this report.

Reach Joey Garrison at 615-259-8236 and on Twitter @joeygarrison.