Can Kendrick Lamar convert any of his eight nominations? Will Cardi B be rewarded for her debut album? We pick this year’s likely winners

Record of the year

Cardi B – I Like It

Brandi Carlile – The Joke

Childish Gambino – This Is America

Drake – God’s Plan

Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper – Shallow

Kendrick Lamar & SZA – All the Stars

Post Malone feat. 21 Savage – Rockstar

Zedd, Maren Morris & Grey – The Middle

Big changes are afoot at the Grammys: the top prizes have expanded from five nominations to eight, and 900 people were invited to join the voting academy to make it “a more inclusive space”. This was done in the wake of the 2018 awards when only 17 of the 86 winners were women, and there was disquiet over Bruno Mars’s unremarkable 24k Magic triumphing over strong records by Kendrick Lamar, Childish Gambino and Luis Fonsi.

That in mind, the favourite for the night’s biggest award has to be Childish Gambino, whose This Is America took the temperature of the US with a rectal thermometer. It addressed race and privilege via a prowling, industrial rap track, and the sheer popularity and discussion around it makes it “record of the year” by most metrics (though the track itself is perhaps not quite as brilliant as its reputation suggests). There is huge goodwill towards Cardi B too, and her charismatic Latin pop smash I Like It will find favour across wide voting demographics, while Post Malone and 21 Savage’s maudlin Rockstar certainly spoke to a bleaker strain in 2018’s pop culture.

Will win: Childish Gambino – This Is America

Should win: Cardi B – I Like It

Album of the year

Cardi B – Invasion of Privacy

Brandi Carlile – By the Way, I Forgive You

Drake – Scorpion

HER – HER

Post Malone – Beerbongs & Bentleys

Janelle Monáe – Dirty Computer

Kacey Musgraves – Golden Hour

Various Artists – Black Panther: The Album, Music From and Inspired By

This will be the most interesting category in terms of charting how much those 900-odd new diverse voters could make an impact. Kacey Musgraves’ Golden Hour is the kind of album that old-school Academy members drool over: diamond-solid, emotive songwriting that remains contemporary without being scarily fashionable; it is already the winner of the same award at the Country Music Association awards. But Cardi B’s debut album is one that many will get behind – it has just as wide an emotional range, plus irrepressible star power. Drake’s Scorpion will amass votes too for its dazzling high points and pop cultural footprint, but it’s too patchy to win.

Will win: Cardi B – Invasion of Privacy

Should win: Kacey Musgraves – Golden Hour

Song of the year

Kendrick Lamar & SZA – All the Stars

Ella Mai – Boo’d Up

Drake – God’s Plan

Shawn Mendes – In My Blood

Brandi Carlile – The Joke

Zedd, Maren Morris & Grey – The Middle

Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper – Shallow

Childish Gambino – This Is America

A very tough category to call. This Is America may win record of the year, but is less likely to prevail in the rather more stately songwriting category. Nothing else quite gets out in front here, though. The Joke’s sisterly sympathy towards homophobic bullying and female struggle is a message voters will want to champion, but it never charted. The Middle is a triumph of major-label collaborative shit-at-a-wall songwriting, but it might be seen as trash by more august voters. All the Stars has two much-loved luminaries, but it is not their very best work. It could well be Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper’s Shallow, the emotional heart of A Star Is Born and a celebration of the power of improvisatory songwriting, that will sneak ahead. Ella Mai’s Boo’d Up could come up on the inside: a huge US radio hit with a brilliant, innovative chorus for the ages.

Will win: Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper – Shallow

Should win: Ella Mai – Boo’d Up

New artist

Chloe x Halle

Luke Combs

Greta Van Fleet

HER

Dua Lipa

Margo Price

Bebe Rexha

Jorja Smith

The two Brits in the category, Dua Lipa and Jorja Smith, both absolutely deserve to be there but haven’t truly broken America yet; others, like Chloe x Halle, aren’t quite big enough; Greta Van Fleet and Bebe Rexha don’t even deserve to be here. Margo Price has been knocking around for a few years (though that wasn’t a problem for last year’s winner Alessia Cara) and her bluff, matter-of-fact country is hugely likable – but Luke Combs has had the bigger country breakthrough and so the country vote will be split. That leaves the arresting R&B singer HER, the only one with an album of the year nomination – she will surely secure the win.

Will win: HER

Should win: HER

Pop solo performance

Beck – Colors

Camila Cabello – Havana (live)

Ariana Grande – God Is a Woman

Lady Gaga – Joanne (Where Do You Think You’re Goin’?)

Post Malone – Better Now

Beck is here surely as part of a care in the community programme, Lady Gaga is here with a song that everyone has forgotten about, and Camila Cabello is here because the Grammys didn’t notice how much of a bop the studio version of Havana was last year. That leaves Post Malone, whose Better Now is an excellent showcase of his gift for nagging melody … but the Academy will reward Ariana Grande after a tough emotional year in which she nevertheless entered her imperial phase.

Will win: Ariana Grande

Should win: Ariana Grande

Rock performance

Arctic Monkeys – Four Out of Five

Chris Cornell – When Bad Does Good

Fever 333 – Made an America

Greta Van Fleet – Highway Tune

Halestorm – Uncomfortable

Greta Van Fleet’s nomination is a handy illustration of how low rock music’s ebb currently is: a staggeringly boring Led Zeppelin redux that suggests a genre completely out of ideas, especially when juxtaposed with the vibrancy of Cardi B, Drake or Travis Scott. But otherwise, this is a good crop. Halestorm’s Lzzy Hale, hopping between rapid-fire chatter and sky-opening holler on Uncomfortable, remains a great asset to mainstream rawk; Fever 333 are the natural successors to Rage Against the Machine and are stacking up the big choruses; and Arctic Monkeys’ lounge lizard incarnation is a work of genius. But with none of them truly defining the year in rock, there could be a big swell of voting for Chris Cornell, following his apparent suicide in 2017, to help anoint him as one of the American greats.

Will win: Chris Cornell

Should win: Arctic Monkeys

Rap performance

Cardi B – Be Careful

Drake – Nice For What

Kendrick Lamar, Jay Rock, Future & James Blake – King’s Dead

Anderson .Paak – Bubblin

Travis Scott, Drake, Big Hawk & Swae Lee – Sicko Mode

Cardi B has another good shot in this category – the hoarse, hurt Be Careful was the track that announced her as more than just a mouthy drama diviner ready to trample on you in some Louboutins. But there is heavyweight competition. Drake’s Nice for What is arguably his masterpiece, matching his melodious flow to the minor-key shifts of Lauryn Hill’s Ex-Factor in an utterly joyous, champagne-spraying celebration of female confidence. King’s Dead is a series of excellent episodic ideas that don’t quite hang together – an accusation you could perhaps also level at Sicko Mode, though Travis Scott should still win for his outrageously brilliant opening two verses. He very likely will too, given the superstar was overlooked in the album, record and song categories.

Will win: Travis Scott

Should win: Travis Scott

Country solo performance

Loretta Lynn – Wouldn’t It Be Great?

Maren Morris – Mona Lisas and Mad Hatters

Kacey Musgraves – Butterflies

Chris Stapleton – Millionaire

Keith Urban – Parallel Line

Chris Stapleton could win this category for the third time in four years, but given that Millionaire is as generic as its “love is more precious than gold” chorus, someone else will probably get a go. Maren Morris won’t win for an Elton John cover, but any of the others have a chance. Keith Urban’s ballad is cheesy but gorgeously sturdy; 86-year-old Loretta Lynn is the very definition of “still got it” and will earn votes from those wanting to bestow a lifetime achievement award on her. But Kacey Musgraves has simply written the year’s best country songs, and Butterflies, replicating the fluttering feeling of new love in its very melody, is no exception.

Will win: Kacey Musgraves

Should win: Kacey Musgraves

