After Ninjas in Pyjamas' recent struggles at DreamHack Summer and RaidCall EMS One Summer finals, we've delved deep into our statistics database to look for answers.

The Ninjas are obviously being held to some unrealistic standards. It's not realistic to expect them to continue winning every tournament, especially without losing a single map, but more often than not they seem to do it anyways.

It makes sense that other teams slowly start catching up to NiP, who switched to CS:GO early on in comparison to many others. Other teams are probably also adapting to NiP's playing style, and figuring out ways to counter it.

We have broken down NiP's map win rates by map and by different eras. For offline play we've divided all of their statistics into two; one half prior to their first loss when they held the 87-0 record, and the other half since then.



Are NiP in a slump or losing their edge?

For online play it wouldn't have made sense to cut it off from the first loss as SY_b upset them so early into their run. Instead we've gone with the vacation they took as a team after winning ESEA Invite Season 13 global finals in Dallas.

We've also separated their statistics for June, which is by far their weakest month so far since the team was founded in August last year. NiP's June would still rock any month for any other team so far, but you have to judge them by the high standards they've set themselves.

Finally, it's important to note that we do not have statistics for the regular seasons of ESEA (or small online events such as THOR Open Qualifiers), but they seem to reflect the averages fairly well. You can check ESEA stats out here.

NiP online

We'll start with a list of NiP's online matches that they didn't win prior to May 15th. Match statistics are linked in the score, although we do not have statistics from the THOR Open Qualifier matches:

Score Opponent Map Event Date 12-16 Na`Vi Na`Vi de_dust2_se SLTV StarSeries V Mar 20 12-16 ESC ESC de_train_se RC EMS One Spring Cup #4 Mar 13 12-16 n!faculty n!faculty de_mirage_go RC EMS One Spring Cup #1 Feb 14 11-16 WRTT WRTT de_mirage_go THOR Open Qualifier Nov 17 15-15 ASES ASES de_dust2_se ESL Major Series Nov 8 14-16 SY_b SY_b de_dust2_se THOR Open Qualifier Oct 13

As you can tell, half of their losses came on de_dust2_se, two on de_mirage_go and one on de_train_se. NiP won the first half in three of the losses (10-5 as CT vs Na`Vi, 9-6 as T vs n!faculty and 13-2 as CT vs ASES). We do not have data for the SY_b match.

In four of those six games (that we have statistics for) NiP's players performed fairly accurately according to their long term hierarchy, although Christopher "GeT_RiGhT" Alesund and Adam "friberg" Friberg are probably slightly below their averages.

Ever since returning from their vacation, which took place following the busy month of April that culminated in a win at ESEA Invite Season 13 global finals, they've had a much tougher time staying ahead of the Joneses. Let's take a look at their online losses on and after May 15th:

Score Opponent Map Event Date 23-25 LDLC.com LDLC.com de_train_se fnatic FragOut League Jun 12 9-16 LDLC.com LDLC.com de_inferno_se fnatic FragOut League Jun 12 13-16 Team X Team X de_mirage_go RC EMS One Summer Group Jun 12 8-16 fnatic fnatic de_cache RC EMS One Summer Group Jun 12 3-16 WW WW de_dust2_se RC EMS One Summer Cup #2 May 21 8-16 Cph Wolves Cph Wolves de_nuke_se RC EMS One Summer Cup #1 May 15

Since May 15th, NiP has lost another six matches: one on each of the six maps in play. They only won the first half once (9-6 versus Team X as CT on de_mirage_go) in those matches.

Now, here are NiP's individual statistics from those six losses:

The statistics confirm the eye test and speculation that Richard "Xizt" Landström hasn't been playing up to his usual level recently, as Friberg has surpassed him in both KPR and rating. That very likely also factors into why NiP hasn't been as dominant.

In these losses everyone played roughly to their normal level within the team. While Patrik "f0rest" Lindberg's rating seems significantly lower than Alesund's, it's only because he has died more; he has actually contributed more in the fragging department.

Let's take a look at NiP's online play statistics broken down by each map. In total they've played 71 matches (in our statistics database and ESEA - some small qualifiers such as THOR Open may be missing) prior to May 15th, and 34 since.



* de_dust2_se match versus ASES ended in a draw



Prior to May 15th NiP had won 91,5% of their online matches, but they've "only" managed to win 82,4% since then. That's a 9,1% difference, which is fairly sizable considering how consistent they've otherwise been.

More importantly, their first six losses came in a window from August until May, which adds up to roughly nine months or so, while another six have taken place in just one and a half months.

NiP on LAN

We have focused on the time after NiP's first loss on LAN in our analysis, as there is no point in analyzing a perfect record. As you can see in the table below, NiP was first dethroned by Virtus.pro on April 5th.

NiP has actually lost more maps on LAN than online since then, as just six of their eleven online losses have taken place during the time period, while they've lost a total of nine maps on LAN.

Here's a quick recap of all the maps they've lost on LAN:

Score Opponent Map Event Date 14-16 Virtus.pro vs.Virtus.pro de_nuke_se RC EMS One Summer Jun 30 11-16 Virtus.pro vs.Virtus.pro de_dust2_se RC EMS One Summer Jun 30 14-16 Cph Wolves vs.Cph Wolves de_inferno_se DreamHack Summer Jun 17 11-16 Epsilon vs.Epsilon de_inferno_se Swedish Championship Jun 16 2-16 WW vs.WW de_nuke_se DreamHack Summer Jun 15 14-16 Virtus.pro vs.Virtus.pro de_dust2_se SLTV StarSeries V Apr 7 15-19 Virtus.pro vs.Virtus.pro de_inferno_se SLTV StarSeries V Apr 7 10-16 Virtus.pro vs.Virtus.pro de_nuke_se SLTV StarSeries V Apr 5 14-16 Virtus.pro vs.Virtus.pro de_mirage_go SLTV StarSeries V Apr 5

The list shows us that one third of their losses have come on de_inferno_se with another third happening on de_nuke_se. They've lost on de_mirage_go once, while the final two losses took place on de_dust2_se.

they won the first half in four of the losses (both de_dust2_se games versus Virtus.pro, Copenhagen Wolves loss at DH and the de_nuke_se loss versus Virtus at SLTV finals), with scores ranging from 10-5 to 8-7.

This tells us a couple of things: NiP has won 100% of the games where they've led after winning the terrorist side on de_inferno_se, de_nuke_se or de_mirage_go. They have also never lost de_train_se on LAN; their only remaining undefeated map.

Statistics from the nine maps NiP has lost on LAN:

Alesund has been clearly the strongest player in NiP's losses, followed up by Lindberg who has together with Friberg played slightly sub-par, perhaps as a result of struggles in entry fragging.

Below is a breakdown by map on NiP's win rate in LAN matches starting on April 5th. They were undefeated with an 87-0 record up until April 5th, so we have ignored all maps until then.

As mentioned above, NiP remains undefeated on de_train_se. Most interestingly, NiP has lost 50% of all the games they've played on de_inferno_se since April 5th – a devastating number compared to their overall win rate of 77,5%. Second weakest map for them is de_nuke_se at 72,7%.

NiP in June 2013

We've also dedicated a section of this article for June only, as it gives us a nice amount of data that is very recent and that is easy to play with to draw more conclusions about NiP players' current form.

We'll start off with their statistics from the 21 online matches they played in June (once again missing ESEA Season 14 matches). They won 17 out of those encounters, good for a winning percentage of 80,1%.

First of all, Alesund sticks out like a sore thumb – but in a good way. He has recorded one of the all-time greatest months by any player; a ridiculous 0.996 KPR, a K:D ratio of 1.95 and a +331 K-D difference with ESEA included.

Even without ESEA Season 14 (where he holds a 1.086 FPR and a K-D difference of +86, which would likely increase his already incredible rating) his rating is 1.48, up from his number-one-in-the-world ranked 1.38.

Lindberg has fallen behind Alesund in K-D difference, but isn't that far off in KPR, and possesses a higher headshot percentage. Robin "Fifflaren" Johansson's low HS% is partly explained by his AWP use. Although it's on an almost equal level with that of Lindberg's (awpKPR of 0.13 for both), due to the higher KPR of Lindberg only 11% of his kills were with an AWP, compared to Johansson's 20,9%.

Friberg has yet again, albeit barely, edged out Landström for the third place within the team. Johansson is the only player on NiP with a negative K:D ratio, and a sub-1 rating as per our statistics, excluding ESEA Season 14.



GeT_RiGhT's June was amazing statistically

On top of losing four maps online in June, NiP also had four wins that ended 16-14 or in overtime. As you might guess from Alesund's statistics, he was likely the reason the Swedes didn't lose those fair maps.

Alesund recorded an out-of-this-worldly 1.95 rating versus German /10/ in NiP's 16-14, win and a well-above-his-average 1.53 rating in their 16-14 besting of Natus Vincere.

In their two overtime wins in ESEA Season 14, Alesund put up scores of 49:28 versus ESC in a 22-20 win (88,5% above his team's average in kills) and 40:21 against VeryGames in a 19-17 win (62% above his team's average in kills).

With those statistics in mind, it's very reasonable to assume Alesund saved them in at least two of those four games, which means NiP could have realistically lost up to four additional maps in June, had one of their stars not bailed them out.

Now let's take a look at NiP's statistics in their LAN matches that took place in June. On LAN their winning percentage took a nosedive, as they won 13 out of 18 maps played, only good for a 72,2% win-rate.

On LAN Alesund and Lindberg are neck and neck with barely any differences in any of their statistics. Landström has edged out Friberg in KPR, but still has a lower rating. Johansson is once again the only player with both a negative K-D difference and a sub-1 rating.

The four top players in NiP are actually very close to each other in KPR in June, as the difference from the top fragger Alesund's 377 kills/0.84 KPR to number four Friberg's 325 kills/0.72 KPR is a mere 14%. Johansson bottoms out at 237 kills/0.53 KPR, a 27% difference from Friberg, or a 37,1% drop from Alesund.

NiP versus Virtus.pro

Considering Virtus.pro is the only team to have defeated NiP in a best-of-three match, we decided to also further analyze those six map losses that the Swedes have suffered against the CIS-based team.

Below are combined statistics from those six maps. Keep in mind that Dauren "AdreN" Kystaubayev has played four of them, with Ladislav "GuardiaN" Kovács having participated in just two.

Virtus.pro's star player Mihail "Dosia" Stolyarov has clearly been the driving force behind his side's victories, recording a 1.24 rating in the six encounters. Kovács is number two at 1.13, but has only played two of the six maps. Stolyarov could be considered somewhat of a NiP killer, as his rating of 1.24 is 0.1 higher than his overall rating.

Only NiP player to post a positive K-D difference is once again Alesund, who is also the only Swede with an above 1.00 rating. Friberg's struggles suggest that NiP's entry killing hasn't worked well versus Virtus.pro, and likely is part of the reason they've been losing.



Dosia has stepped up in wins versus NiP

Something to point out is that NiP has never managed to come back from a map loss versus Virtus.pro to win the next map – each time Virtus.pro has won one they've followed it with a second win to beat NiP.

NiP has followed the other three map losses with multiple consecutive wins, although they were within a lucky defuse by in-game leader Landström from being knocked out by Publiclir.se at DreamHack, in the match following Western Wolves loss.

How to beat NiP?

There's a common denominator in all of NiP's losses on LAN – they have always either lost the opening pistol round (8/9) times, or won the pistol round but lost the second round of the half (versus Western Wolves).

In their nine LAN losses they've only won seven of the eighteen pistol rounds (a rate of 38,9%, well below their overall average), and twice they have lost the immediate round after winning the pistol, only starting 5 of 18 halves favorably (27,8%).

In their online losses (with the exception of SY_b match, of which we have no record) NiP has won just 7 of 22 pistol rounds (an even weaker 31,8%), and lost the second round after winning once, bringing good starts to a half to 27,2%.



The question HeatoN and Fiskoo don't want anyone to find an answer to

While past results are no indication of the future, so far it seems to be impossible to defeat NiP without winning the opening pistol round, or the second round of the half. The Ninjas have been painfully good on LAN when given control early on.

In terms of maps, so far NiP has never lost de_train_se on LAN. As previously pointed out, they've also never surrendered first half leads as terrorists on de_inferno_se, de_nuke_se or de_mirage_go, so their confidence is surely running high after winning those sides.

On the contrary, they have only won 50% (although the sample size is small, just six) of their de_inferno_se games since April 5th, and also somewhat struggled on de_nuke_se (72,7%) and de_dust2_se (81,8%), with a slightly better 85,7% win-rate on de_mirage_go.

What do you think is the reason behind NiP's recent struggles? Do you think they will bounce back this week at SLTV StarSeries VI finals, where they are expected to take on Virtus.pro? Let us know in the comments section.

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