Donna Shalala is unknown by 55 percent of likely Democratic voters in a new poll, but 36 percent have a favorable impression of her and 9 percent have a negative view. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images Shalala poll shows her dominating Democratic field in Miami

MIAMI — In one of the nation’s top races for congressional Democrats, Donna Shalala’s likely opponents have treated her like the candidate to beat — and a new poll she paid for shows why.

Shalala, a friend and appointee of the Clintons as well as the former president of the University of Miami, leads the crowded primary field with 24 percent of the vote in Florida’s 27th Congressional District, with state Sen. José Javier Rodríguez trailing her with a distant 10 percent, according to the poll of 600 Democratic voters conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International.


All six other candidates polled in the single digits. At least 70 percent of the district’s Democratic electorate had no idea who they were.

After the pollster read respondents positive and negative messages about Shalala (concerning the 77-year-old’s health, for instance) Shalala’s numbers jumped 16 percentage points, to 40 percent, over her opponents while Rodriguez had 8 percent of the vote. The undecided share of the vote dropped from 51 percent to 38 percent.

“Sometimes, when a candidate gets a poll back, they ask, ‘Why should I really run?’ Well, with this poll, the question she’s asking is ‘Why should I really not run?’” said Craig T. Smith, a longtime friend of Shalala’s who worked with her in President Bill Clinton’s White House when she was Health and Human Services secretary.

Shalala has been calling potential donors and bigwigs in the Miami-Miami Beach-Coral Gables district in anticipation of a run.

“I’m weighing the kind of work that it will take to get elected. I want to make sure there’s support out there for my candidacy,” Shalala told the Miami Herald last week. “I’m not weighing whether I have the energy or the passion or smarts to do the job. But I’ve got to take a look at the district and the issues and talk to a lot of people in our community.”

Before Shalala could even sit down with the hometown paper, opponent Mary Barzee Flores criticized her record. And state Rep. David Richardson said he welcomed a Shalala bid because it will help him raise money.

Parts of the poll, which were shared in a slide deck with supporters and then obtained this week by POLITICO, give a hint about the top concern of Democrats in the district: President Donald Trump. He is viewed unfavorably by 78 percent of the district’s likely Democratic voters — with 69 percent having a highly unfavorable view — while 17 percent have a favorable opinion of the president.

Also, 58 percent of the Democratic voters in the district want the president impeached; 29 percent say he shouldn’t be impeached.

Trump lost the district by 19.6 percentage points in 2016 to Hillary Clinton. But the incumbent Republican, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, won reelection.

In the district, Bill Clinton remains the most popular figure surveyed, with 75 percent holding a favorable impression of him and 12 percent a negative impression. Hillary Clinton was viewed favorably by 69 percent and unfavorably by 19 percent. Shalala is unknown by 55 percent of the voters in the poll, but 36 percent have a favorable impression of her and 9 percent have a negative view.

As the district has become more Democratic and as the GOP has shifted too far right for her tastes, Ros-Lehtinen announced her retirement this year.

“When you look at the future of the Republican Party, I think that we would be foolish to not see that we’re heading into trouble,” Ros-Lehtinen told CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday in an appearance with other Republican congressional members who are stepping down at the end of their current terms.