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Hit Power SB Field Overall 70 70 50 50/55 80

Background: The history of baseball has been littered with bad trades: Who can forget Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas, for God’s sake? Lopsided swaps are very much a part of the game, like soggy hot dogs, and warm beer, and heartbreaking losses. But what in the hell were Chicago White Sox thinking were they agreed to ship off Fernando Tatis Jr. – as well as Erik Johnson, because Tatis clearly wasn’t enough – for aging, expensive veteran right-hander James Shields? Shields, by the way, owns a stellar 5.31 ERA in parts of the three seasons with the Sox. As for his part, Tatis has – quickly – morphed into one of the game’s premier prospects, offering up a tantalizing mix of five-tool potential, and youth and exuberance at the most important spot on the infield. Tatis Jr. would actually make his professional debut in the San Diego system, hitting a solid .273/.311/.432 as a 17-year-old splitting time between the rookie league and short-season ball. His follow-up campaign, however, is how he announced his arrival: in 131 games between the Midwest and Texas Leagues, most of it coming in Low Class A, the 6-foot-3, 185-pound middle infielder slugged a robust .278/.379/.498 with 27 doubles, seven triples, and 22 homeruns; he also swiped 32 bags as well. After his 14-game cameo with San Antonio in 2017, San Diego bounced the teenage prospect back down to the most important challenge in a prospect’s development – and he passed, with flying colors. In an injury-shortened campaign, the Dominican-born shortstop batted .286/.355/.507 with 22 doubles, four triples, and 16 homeruns to go along with 16 stolen bases. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 33% and 16%, respectively. All before his age-20 season, mind you.

Analysis: Consider the following:

Since 2006, only six 19-year-old hitters have received at least 250 plate appearances in the Texas League: Mike Trout, Jurickson Profar, Raul Mondesi, Elvis Andrus, Keibert Ruiz, and – of course – Fernando Tatis Jr. San Diego’s budding superstar finished with the second most productive campaign in the group, trailing only that one guy named Trout.

At this point it’s probably easier to list Tatis’ flaws rather than expound upon his – almost – limitless skill set: his strikeout tendencies are a bit too high. That’s it. Everything else is above-average to plus. Both the hit tool and in-game power have a shot at being plus-plus-skills at maturity. He shows impressive foot speed for a budding middle-of-the-lineup thumper. And, perhaps, the most impressive thing about Tatis: his ability to stay at shortstop. His defense took tremendous strides over the past two seasons.

Ceiling: 7.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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2. Francisco Mejia, C

Hit Power SB Field Overall 65 55 30 50 65+

Background: From a lopsided swap to one that made sense for both clubs. The Padres and Indians got together on a mid-season deal that sent much needed relief help to the AL Central club in the form of Brad Hand and Adam Cimber for long-time prized catching prospect Francisco Mejia. Signed out of Bani, Dominican Republic for $350,000 as a 16-year-old in 2012, Mejia quickly established himself as one of the game’s premier catching prospects. Two years ago the switch-hitting backstop ripped through the Eastern League, slugging an impressive .297/.346/.490 with 37 extra-base hits as a 21-year-old. And he continued his torrid ways upon entering Class AAA last season as well. Splitting time between both organizations’ Class AAA affiliates, Mejia slugged .293/.338/.471 with a career high 30 doubles, two triples, and a personal best-tying 14 homeruns. He also appeared in 21 games with the Indians and Padres, hitting a lowly .179/.258/.375 with a pair of doubles and three homeruns. For his minor league career, Mejia is sporting a .293/.347/.452 triple-slash line.

Analysis: A smooth-swinging, pure hitter at a premium position. Mejia consistently barrels up balls as frequently as few other bats in the minor leagues. And his effortless swing allows him to pepper shots all over the field as well. Mejia has historically performed better as a right-handed hitter, his traditional side, but still does plenty of damage on the other side of the batter’s box as well. And defensively speaking, he’s consistently graded out as average or slightly better. He’s also taken strides to improve his ability to control the run game in recent seasons as well. At his peak Mejia looks like a .290/.340/.470-type hitter.

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017

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3. MacKenzie Gore, LHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 65 60 50 55 60 70

Background: With a leg kick reminiscent of the starting pitchers from yesteryear, the Padres snagged the gifted southpaw with the third overall pick two years ago. Gore, a product of Whiteville High School, signed his name on the dotted line for a hefty $6.7 million. After a dominating seven-game cameo in the Arizona Summer League during his debut, San Diego aggressively pushed the 6-foot-3, 191-pound lefty up to the Midwest League. And Gore, simply, shined. Brightly. Under the watchful eye of the front office, Gore tossed just 60.0 innings for the Fort Wayne Tin Caps, fanning 74 and walking just 18. He finished the year with a deceiving 4.45 ERA and a 2.81 DRA (Deserved Run Average), which his more indicative of his true performance level.

Analysis: Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of the 19-year-old pitchers to post a strikeout percentage between 27% and 30% with walk percentage between 9% and 8% in the Midwest League (min. 50 IP): Tyler Robertson, Noah Syndergaard, and MacKenzie Gore. Robertson’s strike numbers tumbled once he moved out of Low Class A. And, of course, Noah Syndergaard is, well, Noah Syndergaard.

Gore’s repertoire consists of two plus-pitches, one above-average offering, and another that grades out as solid-average. The southpaw with the big leg kick unfurls a fastball that sits easily in the low- to mid-90s, touching as high as 95- or 96-mph on occasion. His curveball’s a big, sweeping 11-to-5 breaking ball. His changeup has some fade. And the slider is more than enough to be a quality fourth offering. San Diego has – generally – done a fine job in keeping their young arms healthy. And if Gore can navigate his way carefully through the injury nexus, he has a chance to ascend to a true #1.

Ceiling: 5.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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4. Luis Urias, 2B

Hit Power SB Field Overall 70 35/40 35 55/60 65+

Background: It took several years of stout offensive performances, but pint-sized middle infielder began to garner some national pub. Urias, a 5-foot-9, 185-pound second baseman, burst onto the scene as an 18-year-old, batting .299/.388/.335 between the Northwest and Midwest Leagues. San Diego aggressively pushed the promising hitter up to High Class A the following year, 2016, and Urias – once again – surpassed all expectations – by a Grand Canyon-size margin; he slugged .330/.397/.440 in 120 games with Lake Elsinore. Urias’ production took a bit of step backward, though it remained well above-average, as he moved into Class AA in 2017. Last season Urias made it to the final rung on the minor league ladder. And, once again, he continued impress: he hit .296/.398/.447 with 30 doubles, seven triples, and eight homeruns. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 27% and 3%, respectively.

Analysis: Urias’ phenomenal patience at the plate has followed him as he moved up the development chain, thanks to his developing power – which keeps pitchers honest. The short infielder, in the mold of Jose Ramirez and Jose Altuve, shows an astute ability to spray balls wherever they’re thrown, slashing line drives all over the field. He’s as pure of a hitter as anyone in the minor leagues. Urias will never offer up a whole lot of over-the-fence power, but he should settle in around eight- to 10-homeruns in a year. Defensively, he has the potential to win multiple Gold Gloves. Consider the following:

Since 2006, only three 21-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ total between 122 and 132 in the Pacific Coast League (min. 300 PA): Wilmer Flores, Domingo Santana, and Luis Urias. Flores has had three separate seasons in which he’s posted at least a 103 wRC+ with the Mets. And Santana, who was recently traded to the Mariners, owns a career 113 wRC+ in 371 games.

In terms of big league seasons, Urias has the talent to bat .300/.350/.400 with 35 doubles, a handful of triples, and a couple dingers. Think Joey Wendle circa 2018 (he slugged .300/.354/.435, by the way).

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2018

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5. Luis Patino, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 80 55 65/70 50 55/60 70

Background: The right-handed clone of MacKenzie Gore – or at least mechanically speaking. Patino, who’s become close friends with his fellow top prospect, shows a similar high kick, all-legs-and-arms type of windup. The fireballing right-hander split his debut between the foreign and stateside rookie leagues two years ago, posting a remarkable 58-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 56.0 innings of work. San Diego bounced the Columbian hurler up to the Midwest League last season. And the 18-year-old offered up more than the occasional glimpse of dominance. In 17 starts with the Fort Wayne Tin Caps, the 6-foot, 192-pound righty fanned a whopping 98 and walked just 24 in 83.1 innings of work. He compiled a barely-there 2.16 ERA and a 3.53 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

Analysis: Just how good was Patino last year? The triple-digit touching hurler allowed just 20 earned runs. – 11 of those came in two separate starts. Meaning: ignoring those two starts, Patino posted a 1.08 ERA over his other 15 starts. Simply put, Patino owns one of the most electric arms in the minor leagues. Possessing a true plus-plus fastball that’s touched 100 mph on several occasions, Patino pounds the strike zone with surprising regularity. His slider, another wipeout offering, doesn’t begin to move until it’s practically in the catcher’s mitt. He’ll also show an above-average curveball and a hard changeup as well. Even in an organization as tightly condensed with blue chip arms, Patino doesn’t have a problem standing out. One could make the argument – and potentially win – that Patino’s the highest ceiling pitcher in the minor leagues. One more thought: you’ll be hard-pressed to see a 100 mph fastball thrown with the kind of ease shown by Patino. It’s incredible.

Ceiling: 5.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

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6. Chris Paddack, RHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 60 45/50 80 70 65+

Background: Continuing with the trend of uneven trades. Here’s a friendly reminder: the Padres fleeced the Marlins out of Paddack, who’s quietly become one of the top pitching prospects in the game, for roughly half-of-a-season of Fernando Rodney back in 2016. Rodney, by the way, was 39-years-old and posted a 5.89 ERA in 36.2 innings with the Marlins the rest of the way and quickly hit the free agency market. Now to be completely fair, Paddack would throw just 14.0 innings in the Padres’ system before missing the entirety of 2017. But, finally healthy, Paddack made it back to the mound last season and looked completely, utterly unhittable at times, standing head-and-shoulders above his peers with a surprisingly amount of ease. In a career best 17 starts, the former eighth round pick tossed 90 innings, recording a whopping 120 strikeouts against just eight – EIGHT! – free passes. He finished the year with an aggregate 2.10 ERA and a laughably ridiculous 2.01 FIP.

Analysis: In a lifetime of playing, coaching, scouting and writing about baseball, I can’t think of one pitcher who owns a changeup that’s finer than Paddock’s plus-plus offering. The Texas-born right-hander pulls the string on the pitch, showing phenomenal fade and dive, often leaving the hitters with a bewildered look. But what makes the pitch so devastating is that Paddack’s fastball, another plus offering, sits in the 93-mph range and can touch as high as 95 mph at times. And his control/command is nearly unparalleled in the minors as well. The 6-foot-4, 195-pound right-hander’s curveball, on the other hand, was underwhelming – likely a result of missing so much development time. But it should be no worse than average with some fine tuning. Paddack has the look, repertoire, and strike-throwing ability to ascend to a #2/#3-type starting pitcher. It needs to be noted that he’s never topped more than 90.0 innings in a season, so there’s plenty of additional risk.

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2019

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7. Adrian Morejon, LHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 65 55 55 55 60+

Background: The club doggedly pursued the highly touted southpaw in the summer of 2016, finally agreeing to a deal with a beefy $11 million bonus. The 6-foot, 175-pound left-hander split his debut between Tri-City and Fort Wayne two years ago, posting a solid 58-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 63.0 innings of work. Last season a hip injury limited the Cuban import to just 13 starts in High Class A. Morejon fanned 70 and handed out 24 free passes in 62.2 innings for the Lake Elsinore Storm. He compiled a 3.30 ERA and a 3.86 DRA (Deserved Run Average). Morejon’s averaging 9.3 strikeouts and just 2.8 walks per nine innings in his brief professional career.

Analysis: The slight-framed southpaw, who quite doesn’t look as tall as six feet, shows an impressive three-pitch arsenal. Morejon’s fastball sat comfortably in the mid-90s, touching as high as 97 mph on occasion early in the season. His curveball is an above-average, mid- to upper-70s offering. And his low-80s changeup adds a third out pitch to his repertoire. Morejon has the ceiling of a mid-rotation caliber starting pitcher, perhaps peaking as #2 briefly – if everything breaks well for him. Consider the following:

Since 2006, only six 19-year-old pitchers have thrown more than 50.0 innings in the California League: Nick Adenhart, Chris Tillman, Tim Alderson, Tyler Skaggs, David Holmberg, and – of course Adrian Morejon. San Diego’s young southpaw posted the second highest strikeout percentage, 26.6%, (trailing only Skaggs).

There are some concerns as to whether Morejon’s small stature will allow him to compete after fifth day, but until proven otherwise, he looks quite promising.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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8. Hudson Potts, 3B

Hit Power SB Control Overall 50 55/60 30 50 60

Background: In a system chock full of developmental leaps and bounds, perhaps none other can top the progress Potts, a power-hitting third baseman, showed during his tenure with the Lake Elsinore Storm last season. Taken in the opening round, 24th overall, in the 2016 draft, the 6-foot-3, 205-pound slugger battled some swing-and-miss issues, as well as a lack of patience at the dish, during his first taste of full season action in 2017. Last season, though, Potts transformed from a liability to a legitimate prospect as he moved up to the next level. Appearing in a 106 games with the San Diego’s California League, the Texas native slugged .281/.350/.498 with 35 doubles, one triple, and 17 homeruns. He walked in more than 8% of his plate appearances and fanned slightly fewer than 25% of the time. His overall production in High Class A, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 26% and 10%, respectively. Potts’ late-season swoon with San Antonio in the Texas League – he batted .154/.258/.231 – caused his overall numbers to sink, of course.

Analysis: Potts’ huge showing – or rather, his massive progress at the plate – has quietly thrust him into the conversation as one of the better overall third baseman in the minor leagues. The hit tool’s never going to be an above-average weapon, but his potent thump helps to compensate – especially if he’s walking near the league average. Defensively, he’s sturdy and should have no problem sticking at the hot corner. One more thought: the Carroll High School product shows impressive opposite power as well. Consider the following:

Since 2006, only two 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria in the California League (min. 300 PA): 120 to 130 wRC+ total; 7% to 10% walk rate; and at least a 24% strikeout rate. Those two hitters: Cody Bellinger and – of course – Hudson Potts.

Let’s take it a step further, shall we? Take a look at this:

Name Age PA AVG OBP SLG BB% K% wRC+ Cody Bellinger 19 544 .264 .336 .538 9.6% 27.6% 130 Hudson Potts 19 453 .281 .350 .498 8.2% 24.7% 126

Now…Potts isn’t likely to develop into a Bellinger-type performer at the big league level. But he could very well be 85% or 90% of it though. Potts needs to shows that the strides he made in 2018 don’t regress as he squares off against the Class AA competition in 2019. It’s imperative.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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9. Michel Baez, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 70 55 45/50 50/55 50/55 55+

Background: The towering Cuban right-hander became a trendy pick – including by yours truly – as a breakout candidate in 2018. And while it doesn’t necessarily fall into that category, Baez, nonetheless, turned in a nice little campaign. The 6-foot-8, 220-pound right-hander opened the year up by making 17 starts with Lake Elsinore, posting a 92-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 86.2 innings of work. San Diego bounced the massive righty up to the Texas League in early August for another four – mostly disastrous – starts. He finished his second professional stateside campaign with 113 strikeouts and only 45 walks to go along with a 3.69 ERA. For his career, Baez is averaging 10.8 strikeouts and just 2.9 walks per nine innings with a 3.25 ERA.

Analysis: Signed by the club for $3 million in December 2016, Baez is an impressive physical specimen. He’s massive – 6-foot-8 and 220 pounds – with a blend of body control and athleticism that allows him to consistently throw strikes. Baez’s plus heater sits – easily – in the mid-90s with late life because of his long arms and stride. It’s more straight than not, but he – generally – commands it well to both sides of the plate. He struggles commanding all three of his offspeed offerings. His main go-to secondary pitch is a 12-6 curveball that he tends to choke at times, throwing it 58 feet. His changeup has the potential to be an above-average pitch thanks to dive-and-fade, but – again – it’s inconsistent. His slider is more of a traditional cutter, showing horizontal movement. Despite his age – he’s now entering his age-23 season – Baez remains quite raw, though he has the potential to be a #3/#4-type arm with the floor of a power-armed backend reliever.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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10. Ryan Weathers, LHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 55 55/60 50/55 50/55 50+

Background: Fun Fact: The southpaw’s old man, veteran reliever David Weathers, pitched 16 years in the big leagues for a whopping six different teams. San Diego snagged the well-built left-hander in the opening round, 7th overall, in last year’s draft. The two sides agreed on a deal worth $5,226,500 – the recommended slot bonus. The Loretto High School product split his brief debut between the Arizona Summer and Midwest Leagues, throwing just 18.1 innings with 18 strikeouts and four walks. He compiled an aggregate 3.44 ERA.

Analysis: Surprisingly enough, Weathers, the seventh pick last June, falls well short of being able to light up a radar gun; his fastball sat in the 89-91 mph range, topping 92 during his time in Low Class A. But that only tells half the story. While it’s not a traditional above-average fastball, Weathers’ heater is more sneaky quick and it’s heavy, like hitting a bowling ball. He’ll mix in a pair of solid offspeed pitches, as well: a mid- to upper-70s curveball with some bite and a nice little changeup. Weathers doesn’t look as wiry, athletic, or projectable as many prep arms taken in the opening rounds, but he should develop into a nice league average arm.

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021/2022

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.