On the face of it, John McCain’s proposal to offer a gasoline tax “holiday” during the summer driving season might sound like a good way to cut gas prices at the busiest time of the year.

But economists and energy analysts say it would have little impact on mitigating the rise in gasoline prices. In fact, it could lead to the opposite result.

The federal gasoline tax represents a flat fee of 18.4 cents a gallon nationwide. With gasoline currently averaging $3.39 a gallon, the tax represents a mere 5 percent of today’s pump price. While that’s not trivial, consider that gasoline prices have more than doubled since 2004.

The problem is that lowering gasoline prices at the pump would encourage more consumption. So in the long run, it would push prices up.

Video

The timing of the proposal matters. Senator McCain called on Congress to suspend the gas tax from Memorial Day until Labor Day. That’s typically the period of highest gasoline use in the country as Americans drive to their holiday destinations.

“You don’t want to stimulate consumption,” said Lawrence Goldstein, an economist at the Energy Policy Research Foundation. “The signal you want to send is the opposite one. Politicians should say that conservation is where people’s mindset ought to be.”

Mr. Goldstein said that instead of freezing the federal tax, the government should help lower-income populations pay for gasoline. It would be cheaper and benefit those households that need it most.

The United States the has lowest gasoline taxes among industrialized countries. It also has the highest gasoline consumption level in the world. Energy experts say the two are related.

America’s cars and trucks burn nearly one out of every nine barrels of oil produced around the world each day. The country also accounts for a quarter of global oil demand.

Gasoline taxes in Europe, for example, can account for up to 70 percent of fuel prices. Of course, Europeans pay much higher gasoline prices, but the high tax levels have shielded drivers there from the wild price swings that American motorists have experienced in recent years.

The federal gasoline tax funds government programs, such as the federal highway system. Cutting the tax would do only one thing: send more money to oil producers.

“Higher demand just pushes the world price a bit higher, giving a sizable share of the tax refund to oil producers,” said Lee Schipper, an energy expert and a visiting scholar at the University of California at Berkeley. He also pointed out that lower gasoline taxes, and hence spurring consumption, contradicts Senator McCain’s stated goal of reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.

“And would the higher carbon dioxide emissions from the higher gasoline demand be consistent with his previous stance on restraining those emissions?”