Toronto Maple Leafs forward Nazem Kadri struggled to score goals last year on an individual level, even if his final total seems average for his career.

Kadri has posted seasons of 18-20-18-17 over the past four years for the Toronto Maple Leafs, with the first 18 coming during the lockout shortened season. A quick glance gives a narrative that 17-20 is the ceiling for Kadri, and nothing is out of the ordinary.

Truth be told, Kadri’s ceiling is higher than 20 goals and his 17 goal season last year was pinned down because of bad luck and poor shot decisions.

Here’s a look at Kadri’s individual shooting percentage at 5v5 since 2010-2011.

His first and last seasons are well below his career average, but let’s focus more on the seasons where he played a near full workload of 73+ games and add in his average shot distance.

The first two seasons (2013-2015) are more in line with his career average. His 10.0% iSh% in 2013-2014 drops to 9.77% in 2014-2015, a minor drop that follows his average shot distance moving slightly farther away. That’s a reasonable expectation for a player.

Last year, Kadri took shots, on average, further out than he has ever done before. The result was disastrous. His shooting percentage plummeted into no-man’s land and the only reason he was able to find the back of the net nine times at 5v5 was because his iSF60 was a career high (11.13).

That 11.13 iSF60 was 3.16 shots more per 60 minutes than Kadri’s previous season high. It makes a difference, which is why Kadri was able to somewhat mask the shooting percentage if someone was to just focus on goals themselves.

While his numbers from 2010-2013 exceed 13.5% in two of the three seasons, they represent 29, 21 and 48 games played. Only 16 games over a full NHL season spanned over three years is a hard pattern to gauge.

It’s a guarantee that the Leafs staff have given notice of Kadri’s distance and individual shooting percentages in various situations, so expect him to do better next year.

A reasonable expectation for Kadri in 2016-2017 is to regress in iSF60 under the 11.13 he posted last year, especially with the weapons he’ll have to pass the puck to. I’d still expect him to shoot more than his 7.1 average over the five seasons preceding last year, though.

His shot percentage is destined to go up, if only because he’s not a horrible shooter that traditionally shoots bad. With that percentage going up, it will likely be noticeable that his shot distance gets closer to the net.

A 25 goal season isn’t out of reach for Nazem Kadri. He just needs to shoot closer and have better luck – both in the same season. It’s a conscious choice that only takes one more stride in, and it’s something that the coaching staff is going to be looking for from one of their top players.