Brexit secretary says it is not a very likely outcome, but Vote Leave Watch says it contradicts leave campaign’s promise

David Davis, the Brexit secretary, has admitted the UK could have to revert to World Trade Organisation tariffs if it leaves the EU without having struck a trade deal with the bloc.

The cabinet minister said this was not a very likely outcome but still a possibility if the UK was not successful in talks with the EU.

The Labour MP Chuka Umunna, chair of the campaign group Vote Leave Watch, said Davis had “let the cat out of the bag [about] a real possibility that we could fall out of the EU with no trade deal, and face swingeing and destructive tariffs on key exports.”

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Davis told a Commons foreign affairs committee hearing on Tuesday: “If you’re after a factual statement of what the outcome could be, I guess it’s what is commonly known in the world at large as World Trade Organisation rules.

“That’s, I guess, the conclusion of what the situation would be if we were outside the union with no deal. But I would not want anyone to think that that was in my view a very likely outcome.”

He acknowledged that one “obvious negotiating risk” that could jeopardise the outcome was that the European commission could win a battle for power in Europe against leaders of individual member states.

The commission is taking the hardest line that the UK must accept free movement of people if it wants favourable access to the single market.



The European parliament’s chief negotiator on Brexit, Guy Verhofstadt, said on Tuesday that “if UK wants access to the single market, it must also accept the free movement of citizens”, adding that Brexit should be delivered by 2019.

Asked for his response, Davis replied: “I’ll say a couple of things, other than get thee behind me, Satan. Mr Verhofstadt’s comment is not new. Whilst I won’t get drawn into what our position on it is, you are right in one respect that the language used about the single market, access to the single market and membership of the single market does get very confused. What we want to see is the best trading capacity for British manufacturing and service industry. That could be any of those things.”

Only last week Davis said it was “improbable” that the UK would be able to remain a member of the single market, prompting Downing Street to say that was his opinion rather than government policy.

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In an echo of No 10’s language, the Brexit secretary said on Tuesday it was only his personal opinion that workers’ rights would be preserved after leaving the EU, although he said he had heard nothing in government discussions to contradict his view.

After the hearing, Vote Leave Watch warned that reverting to WTO rules could be disastrous for British industry, particularly the car industry, which would face a 10% tariff on its exports to the EU. Other products facing high tariff barriers would be clothing, at 12%, and lamb, at 40%.

It claimed the admission was in “direct contradiction to what was promised by leave campaigners during the EU referendum, all of whom – including Mr Davis – promised the British people that the UK would get a free trade agreement with the EU upon exit.”

Vote Leave’s website said during the referendum campaign: “We will have a new UK-EU treaty based on free trade.”