In this famously free-thinking state, voters not registered with either major party play a crucial role in the election, and with many of them still undecided, they are seen as the key to victory.

But in the end, the crucial contest looming Tuesday will likely be decided by a different audience: independents.

MERRIMACK, N.H. — For two years now, Democratic presidential candidates have made their pitches in this state at fund-raisers, labor union events, and women’s rallies where they hoped to find support from the state’s most hard-core liberal voters.

About 30 percent of the 1 million registered voters in New Hampshire are Democrats, but 43 percent are registered as undeclared, or independent.


“With a race this close and independent voters disproportionately making up their minds so late, this is the group to watch,” said Plymouth State University political science professor John Lappie.

Yet even though they could vote in either primary, many independent voters on Thursday said they are choosing between the Democratic candidates. They are plagued by the same indecision that has been paralyzing Democrats over who is best equipped to beat President Trump.

“The bottom line for me is I still don’t know yet, and not by a little bit, by a lot,” said Bernie Lucey, 78, of Concord, a registered independent who came to hear former South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg speak here on Thursday.

Lucey said he is considering Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and the more moderate candidates because he believes the version of democratic socialism promoted by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is too extreme.

“I spent 78 years being told how good capitalism is and I believe that,” he said.

Lucey said he planned to go see Warren on Thursday evening in Derry and then several more events over the weekend.

“I just know I’m going to pick someone at about 10 a.m. next Tuesday morning,” he said.


When undeclared voters show up on Tuesday, they will be given the option of picking either the Republican or Democratic primary ballot and they will temporarily become a member of that party. After they vote they can walk over to a different table and switch their registration back to undeclared if they so choose.

Independent voters have long played an outsized role in the state’s presidential primary. They lifted Republican John McCain to wins here in 2000 and 2008. They also fueled Sanders’ win over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Exit polls during that primary found that Sanders and Clinton were basically tied among registered Democrats in the state. But among the 40 percent of voters in that primary who were independents, Sanders won 72 percent to 27 percent.

It is this group that is the most hotly contested among the two leading the polls: Sanders and Buttigieg.

The Boston Globe/ WBZ-TV/ Suffolk University daily tracking poll of the New Hampshire Democratic primary found a shift among independents. From Monday to Thursday, Sanders’ support among independents has dropped from 30 percent to 21 percent. Buttigieg meanwhile has increased from 11 percent support among independents to 21 percent, a key reason for his surge. The same poll showed that 17 percent of independents are still undecided.

Colin Van Ostern, the 2016 Democratic nominee for governor here, points out that research found the term “independents” is largely a misnomer.


“Independents who pick up a Democratic ballot in the primary will largely vote Democratic in the general election,” said Van Ostern.

One of those independents, who decided on Buttigieg this week, is Marcey Rawitscher, 62, a retired teacher and now banker in Amherst. She has struggled with the decision on whom to vote for, and is looking for someone with good character who can beat President Trump.

She settled on Buttigieg this week because “when he speaks, I feel calm and safe.”

Meanwhile, Tracy Craigue, 60, of Penacook, said that after going back and forth between Sanders and former vice president Joe Biden, she will vote for Sanders.

“I feel like his policies are where I am at, and Biden is slipping in the polls,” said Craigue.

Mark Lorden, 63, of Brookline, N.H., came to hear Buttigieg speak Thursday at the VFW post in Merrimack. He said he was deciding between Buttigieg and Biden.

Lorden said he was impressed because Buttigieg brought up several technical issues that he had not considered about how to improve the lives of veterans, such as better sharing of health records between the Department of Defense and the Veterans Administration.

“After having heard him today, I’m in the Pete camp,” he said.

And yet, some independent voters have that looming fear that even if they vote for a Democrat, it won’t be of much use.

“I don’t think any of them are going to be able to beat Trump,” said Larry Devlin, 66, of Brookline, N.H.


Independent voter Larry Devlin of Brookline, N.H., said, “I don’t think any of them are going to be able to beat Trump.” Jessica Rinaldi/Globe Staff

Devlin said he has heard from nearly all the Democratic candidates this cycle. He is a union worker and they are busy this time of year, setting up and taking down campaign stages across the state.

What is he looking for, to help him decide?

“To be absolutely honest with you, the least stupid of all of them and the most honest,” he said.

James Pindell can be reached at james.pindell@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell. Laura Krantz can be reached at laura.krantz@globe.com. Follow her on Twitter @laurakrantz.