Sky Views: Nothing is certain in Brexit negotiations

Sky Views: Nothing is certain in Brexit negotiations

Image: Anti-Brexit demonstrators wave EU and Union flags outside the Houses of Parliament

Faisal Islam, Political Editor

There were some glum faces around the table in Brussels as the UK and European Commission negotiating teams attempted to make progress on Ireland and the border.

The discussions on maintaining the current open border with Ireland after Brexit were difficult and sufficiently tense that some feared a walkout.

UK negotiators have still not detailed their plans for the border within, or without, a free trade agreement with the EU.

But the Barnier team is viewed by Britain to have jumped the gun in spelling out the "fallback option" of essentially extending the single market for goods to a post Brexit Northern Ireland.


For his part, when questioned by Belfast politicians, the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier suggested he was only doing what he could do in detailing the full alignment option, given that other British-led options were not materialising.

The question now, in the fortnight before the March European Council, is whether the lack of progress on the Irish issue becomes the rationale for more delay.

Image: EU Council President Donald Tusk has been talking tough about the Irish issue

Visiting Dublin on Friday, Council President Donald Tusk suggested this, saying that the Brexit negotiation would be about "Ireland first".

Intervention was less about negotiations being frozen and more a rejection of attempts to isolate the Irish issue with trilateral talks.

But there are those in the EU27 who anticipate that there will be an informal linkage between lack of progress on Ireland and a strong political statement on transition and the future partnership.

The economic damage from a failure to agree a standstill transition in March will be substantial.

It would mean many 12-month business contracts having to be signed without certainty as to the precise legal situation in the UK after 29 March, 2019.

It would affect all EU economies, but it is the UK side that wants and needs this now.

The economic damage from a failure to agree a standstill transition in March will be substantial.

A delay till the June European Summit is also possible because of difficulties over the transition period itself, and just days left to deal with them.

On fishing rights the EU position is that the UK would be consulted but not be in the room at the annual fishing quota discussion.

The French are playing hardball over maintaining existing governance of justice and security measures.

Citizens' rights in transition are still not quite sorted.

And nor is the applicability of new EU law to the UK during transition.

March is still doable, but confidence in a strong political statement on transition expressed as recently as the PM's Mansion House speech, has now been replaced with adverbs such as "hopefully" by Chancellor Phillip Hammond.

Image: Theresa May is under pressure on Brexit talks

Leaving such progress hanging for three months during dangerous local elections and Parliamentary votes on customs union membership would be difficult for the PM.

Business voices will pile on the pressure for a quick agreement. This is why most in the process expect to see some British "flexibility" quickly.

But with her Brexit backbenchers quick to denounce a "vassal state" transition of the same laws with no influence, nothing is certain.

Sky Views is a series of comment pieces by Sky News editors and correspondents, published every morning.

Previously on Sky Views: Hannah Thomas-Peter - Protests demand bold solutions to school shootings