VANCOUVER — Ottawa isn’t ruling out the possibility of breaking with Washington and aligning instead with the State of California as President Donald Trump prepares to weaken federal vehicle emissions standards.

Canada’s Environment and Climate Change Minister Catherine McKenna said this week that the government is waiting to see what happens south of the border before making any decisions, but noted there could be two standards in the U.S. moving forward — one federally and one in California.

“And, California isn’t just one state, it’s the sixth largest economy in the world,” she said, adding that many other states align with California’s standard.

“We would hope from a competitiveness perspective the U.S. would only have one standard but if that’s not the case we’ll have to look at this, we have to do a review, but I think we all realize in Canada that we want to be as ambitious as possible,” she said.

Last April, then-administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Scott Pruitt, announced plans to rollback more stringent vehicle emissions standards established by President Barack Obama, which were set to come into force in 2025.

The plan drew condemnation from environmentalists and numerous state leaders, including California Gov. Jerry Brown, who called the move a “cynical and meretricious abuse of power.”

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California is among 17 states that filed a lawsuit last year to challenge the move, which included a draft proposal to freeze the fuel economy standard at 2020 levels, instead of continuing to make it stricter every year to 2025, Reuters reported at the time.

The EPA’s final decision is expected soon. In April, the New York Times reported Washington is preparing to increase standards by 1 per cent each year from 2021 to 2026, instead of by 5 per cent annually as originally planned.

The questions facing Canada now are whether to remain aligned with U.S. standards and what that could mean for its ambitious targets to ensure 100 per cent of new vehicles sold by 2040 are zero-emission.

Environmental advocates in Canada are urging Ottawa to break with Washington and make sure its own standards keep getting stronger. They argue the change is necessary if Canada is to have a shot at hitting the Paris target we’re currently projected to miss, according to the government’s own calculations.

But Mark Nantais, the president of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association, warned there could be repercussions for consumers if Canada goes its own way.

“We’re happy that Minister McKenna has signalled a willingness to look at aligning with California instead of with Washington,” said Dan Woynillowicz, policy director with Clean Energy Canada, a think tank at Simon Fraser University.

But given the looming reality of the federal campaign season, Woynillowicz said he doesn’t expect Ottawa to make a decision until after the general election on Oct. 21.

“We’re anxious to hear from the other federal parties, what their views are on this,” he said. “These standards are of net benefit to consumers, from an economic perspective, and then of course they’re of net benefit from an air pollution and climate change perspective.”

While the oilsands and pipeline fights get much of the attention in the national climate change discussion, the transportation sector is also a major contributor to Canada’s carbon footprint. The sector was responsible for more than a quarter of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2017, second only to the energy sector, according to the latest national tally submitted to the United Nations in April.

On Tuesday, the federal Advisory Council on Climate Action noted in its final report that Canada is still projected to fall short of its 2030 emissions target under the Paris Agreement. The report focused in part on transportation, an area where “greater ambition will be needed” to reduce emissions in line with Canada’s commitment of 30 per cent below 2005 levels in 2030.

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While emissions across Canada dipped 2 per cent from 2005 to 2017, emissions from the transport sector jumped 5 per cent.

Jessie Pelchat, transportation policy analyst at the environmental advocacy organization Equiterre, said Canada risks increasing the shortfall toward the 2030 target if it follows Trump toward weaker vehicle emissions standards. Citing a 2018 study, she said Canada’s emissions will be 10 megatonnes higher in 2030 if the country follows Trump toward weaker standards, and 25 megatonnes higher in 2050.

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Canada is currently on track to all 79 megatonnes of its 2030 target, according to figures published by Environment and Climate Change Canada in last December.

“Canada should divorce from the United States and be independent with those regulations, and not be at the mercy of the United States when an administration decides to make moves like that,” said Pelchat.

The changes could also effect how much people buying new cars in the coming years will have to pay at the gas pump. According to the International Council on Clean Transportation, people fuelling up the average car built to the planned 2025 standards would save about $383 per year on gas.

“The great thing about fuel efficient vehicles is, not only are they cleaner, they’re cheaper to fill up,” said Woynillowicz. “You might have a slightly higher sticker price to buy that cleaner vehicle, but the pay back on it in terms of fuel savings is just a couple of years.”

But Nantais, the president of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association, warned that consumers could face higher prices if Canada breaks away from its historical alignment with the U.S.

“To break away from our alignment with the U.S. would be a critical error on the part of Canada. We are a highly integrated industry on a North American basis,” he said.

Canada isn’t a big enough market to “drive vehicle design,” he said.

His concerns extend to Canada’s entire zero-emission vehicle mandate, saying the government should focus instead on building consumer demand for electric cars.

“You can’t force an artificial supply for which there’s no demand,” he said.

Instead governments should focus on consumer incentives and charging infrastructure, he said.

Both the federal government and the B.C. government are currently offering $5,000 incentives to purchase an electric vehicle.

“One thing we know for sure, is that when you start to remove incentives ... EV sales drop off dramatically,” he said. “We saw that most recently in Ontario.”