Slow growth, but no recession, expected Published duration 4 October 2018

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The Northern Ireland economy will grow slowly over the next three years but narrowly avoid a recession, Ulster University economists have forecast.

The forecast scenario is based on a "trade friendly" deal being reached between the UK and the EU.

It predicts growth of 0.4% next year, slowing to 0.2% in 2020 and recovering to 0.4% again in 2021.

Growth is then predicted to pick up in the longer term as the global economy moves into a stronger growth phase.

Mixed picture

The forecast from the university's economic policy centre said local economic indicators are showing a very mixed picture.

Unemployment is at historic lows, however economic inactivity remains relatively high and productivity growth has stalled.

Based on the scenario that a Brexit deal is agreed, the centre forecasts that the Northern Ireland economy will add a total of almost 21,000 jobs in the period between 2017 and 2027.

A more optimistic scenario, where Northern Ireland gets close to the UK employment rate, could see 58,500 additional jobs by 2027.

A worst case scenario, caused by Brexit impacting on trade and consumer spending, could see the number of jobs shrinking by almost 11,000 in that ten year period.

The centre describes those best and worse case scenarios as "low probability events".

It adds that the UK economy as a whole is facing a "testing period" due to a difficult international environment and national structural challenges.