A Commonwealth Divided?

Much has been said regarding the major differences of opinion between various groups in the nation as a whole. Those differences are clearly evident in Virginia. There are so many gaps that it is difficult to know where to begin the discussion. There is a huge race gap that has been present for years. The gender gap is also prevalent in this race as are an age gap, marriage gap, and a regional gap. The education gap is smaller, and there is just a hint of an income gap. None of these are particularly novel, but they are quite pronounced in this election. Crosstabs may be found here.

Job approval; direction of country and state

Nearly two-thirds (63%) of Virginians think the country is on the wrong track, while 27 percent think it is headed in the right direction (unchanged from the November 2015 Roanoke College Poll). Job approval for President Barack Obama is at 45 percent with 40 percent disapproval (up slightly from November). Nearly half of voters (48%) have a favorable view of President Obama, and 38 percent have an unfavorable view. Congress remains mired in single-digit approval at 8 percent.

Governor Terry McAuliffe's approval has increased from 38 percent in November to 51 percent in May, while disapproval is at 23 percent (down two points from November). Governor McAuliffe's favorable rating is at 44 percent, and 23 percent of voters hold an unfavorable view of him. Voters remain more optimistic about the Commonwealth with 47 percent saying it is headed in the right direction and 41 percent thinking things are on the wrong track. On a related topic, 61 percent of voters agreed with the governor's executive action that restored voting rights to all convicted felons who have completed their sentences and probation/parole (28% opposed).

Analysis

"This is not a 'feel good' poll," said Dr. Harry Wilson, director of the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research. "We have talked about 'lesser of the evils' choices for several years, but this race may epitomize that statement...and we've barely begun the real nastiness."

"With each of the major party candidates so far under water in terms of unfavorable ratings, it is a little frightening to think where this could end. Third-party candidates could draw some support, and we'll be including those as those candidates are determined and are listed on Virginia's ballot."

Methodology

Interviewing for The Roanoke College Poll was conducted by The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College in Salem, Va. between May 9 and May 17, 2016. A total of 610 likely voters in Virginia were interviewed. Telephone interviews were conducted in English. The random digit dial sample was obtained from ASDE Survey Sampler and includes both Virginia landline and cell phone exchanges so that all cell phone and residential landline telephone numbers, including unlisted numbers from Virginia exchanges, had a known chance of inclusion. Cell phones constituted 34 percent of the completed interviews.

Questions answered by the entire sample of 610 residents are subject to a sampling error of plus or minus approximately 4 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples like the one used here, the results obtained should be no more than 4 percentage points above or below the figure that would be obtained by interviewing all likely voters in Virginia who have a home telephone or a cell phone. Where the results of subgroups are reported, the sampling error is higher.

Quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the Commonwealth were proportionately represented. The data were statistically weighted for gender, race, age, and political party. Weighting was done to match the demographic groups' representation in the 2012 Virginia exit poll. The margin of error was not adjusted for design effects due to weighting.

A copy of the questionnaire and all toplines may be found here. More information about the poll may be obtained by contacting Dr. Harry Wilson at wilson@roanoke.edu or (540) 375-2415 or the Roanoke College Public Relations Office at (540) 375-2282.

The Roanoke College Poll is funded by Roanoke College as a public service.

For more about the Institute for Public Opinion Research, click here.

CONTACT: Dr. Harry L. Wilson, Director, IPOR

(540) 375-2415 (Office)

wilson@roanoke.edu