EMS One Spring LAN Finals Preview April 20th, 2013 04:35 GMT Text by TheEmulator Graphics by HawaiianPig

TABLE OF CONTENTS

League Recap

By TheEmulator



Team Previews

By Vykromond



NS' Armchair Analytics

By dfs



On The Ground In Katowice



Live Report Thread



Follow EMS One on

Liquipedia





Focus Mode

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LAN Finals Preview

will be held at the



First, we start off with a



Finally, our feature article for you this weekend comes in the form of



Well, the games are set to start in a few hours, so go stock up on food and beverages! Then, come game time, join us in our



Schedule

All times in CEST (GMT+2).



Saturday April 20th, 2013

Saturday, Apr 20 9:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) - RoX vs DD.Dota

Saturday, Apr 20 12:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) - riitd vs aL

Saturday, Apr 20 3:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) - mouz vs Alliance

Saturday, Apr 20 6:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) - Fnatic.EU vs Na`Vi



Sunday April 21st, 2013

Sunday, Apr 21 10:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) - Semifinal #1

Sunday, Apr 21 1:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) - Semifinal #2

Sunday, Apr 21 4:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) - Grand Finals



Via All times in CEST (GMT+2).Saturday, Apr 20 9:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) - RoX vs DD.DotaSaturday, Apr 20 12:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) - riitd vs aLSaturday, Apr 20 3:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) - mouz vs AllianceSaturday, Apr 20 6:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) - Fnatic.EU vs Na`ViSunday, Apr 21 10:00am GMT (GMT+00:00) - Semifinal #1Sunday, Apr 21 1:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) - Semifinal #2Sunday, Apr 21 4:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) - Grand FinalsVia Liquipedia

League Recap By TheEmulator

The RaidCall EMS One Season 1 had a very unique format, quite unlike many of the other leagues currently ongoing. The league was split into 4 online cups played over the last few months, with the top 12 teams based on total points gathered at the end advancing to the main event.



The four online Cups had some great games throughout. There were definitely 4-5 teams that performed a step above the rest, but most notably, Alliance (ex-NTH), Na`Vi, and Virtus.pro dominated the competition every time. Alliance won 3 out of the 4 Cups, which was a very impressive feat to witness. The first Cup was won by Na`Vi, and they also got 2nd place in the third Cup. Virtus.pro didn't win a Cup, but they managed to sneak into the top 4 for all 4 Cups, something which not many teams managed to accomplish. Fnatic.EU did great as well, and even came out with the same amount of points as Na`Vi. However, they didn't end up winning, but they were more consistent than Na`Vi overall. The other 8 teams advancing teams did great as well, as it's quite a feat to get enough points to advance without actually winning one of the Cups. Take a look at the final standings here:





(Via Liquipedia)

Next, it was on to the online group stages. The top twelve teams from the cups, plus the four invited squads who came in via the A-Series battled it out over a course of one week, and only the top eight survived. In Group A we saw mousesports and Fnatic.EU advance. It was a fairly easy bracket for them,as they went up against two underdogs of the event, Fnatic.NA and TCM-Gaming. It was no surprise that they came out on top.



Group B was extremely close throughout, with 3 of the teams finishing with a score of 2-1. One of the favourites, Team Liquid, actually went 0-3 in this group, which no one expected. In the end Na`Vi and Absolute Legends advanced. Group C was much like the first group; in other words, we expected DD.Dota and Alliance to advance with ease. The other teams aren't on the same level quite yet, but rat in the dark still showed some good games. The final group was probably one of the toughest to predict. Virtus.pro and RoX ended up advancing, though Airman had passport problems, and this meant that VP couldn't make the LAN. Thus, rat in the dark played TCM for VP's spot and bagged it. They will be in Katowice this weekend, along with everyone else.







(Via Liquipedia)

And thus we come to the end of EMS One this weekend. With the offline finals set to begin soon in Katowice, Poland, you can bet your bottom dollar that these teams are going to give it their best shot! Apart from the generous prize money it offers, the tournament is also attractive because it will be one of the last major LAN events before Dreamhack Summer 2013, and thus everyone has something to prove here. Let the games begin!





(Via Liquipedia)



Team Previews By Vykromond



RoX

BzzIsPerfect, Solo, Dread (C), yol, VANSKOR



How they got here: RoX placed an unconvincing 9th in the cup stage with only 1 semifinal appearance, but destroyed Empire with Lifestealer supported by Lich in groups to go 2-1 in the Group of Russians.



Team Status: Gaining and then losing Sharfik in short order sounded the warning klaxons for RoX.KIS as a potential victim of typical, unceasing CIS team turbulence, but their roster has remained stable since then and the players make all the right noises about being dedicated to sticking together as a team and improving constantly. The results have begun to vindicate this attitude: in the last two weeks RoX have beaten teams like Fnatic, VP, EG, and Empire. At their current form they may be narrow favourites to be the finalists coming out of the soft upper half of the bracket. But neither DD nor AL will be easy matchups for them, especially if the so far unsmoothed quirks in RoX's play like Solo's occasional overaggression from the mid and lack of protection for BzzIsPerfect's farming heroes remain prevalent.



DD.Dota

Sockschka, Funzii, blr, 7ckngmad (C), ComeWithMe (Standin for BABARRRRR)



How they got here: DD tied with Mousesports for seventh place in the Cup stages, with no particularly high or low finishes. In Group C, however, DD surprised by taking first, including a convincing, aggressively pursued win over No Tidehunter.



Team Status: DD is the potential dark horse of the tournament, as there's not much overall data about the team's current status or level of practice after their upset of Alliance in the group stage. They've been practicing, but not actively bootcamping on LAN; and they're heading into the tournament with a stand-in, well-known European competitor ComeWithMe, for their support player BABARRRRRR. The team is multifarious and multi-lingual, and is anchored with some very experienced tournament and LAN competitors, so their poise and composure- never to be underestimated as a factor on LAN- is most likely not in question. It's the actual play and execution that remain question marks.



Absolute Legends

unicornxoxo, Ryze, Mirakel, MaNia (C), Miggel



How they got here: AL placed tenth in the EMS Cup stage, hitting below their weight with no better appearances than quarterfinals. Though they squeaked into the group stage, their performance in and around it revealed a team with tremendous potential: they defeated Na`Vi and TL in their group, dropping Dignitas in another tournament a day prior.



Team Status: Like some of the other teams in the upper half of the EMS One bracket, AL are tough to get a good read on. With the flattening of performance across the top end of the European/NA scene and at least 10 teams able to defeat each other on any given day, contenders like AL have moved from "solid tier 2" to "fringe tier 1" status, where big upsets are not only possible but somewhat expected. AL's old problem was an inability to effectively handle aggression in the early game, starting unicornxoxo on the back foot relative to the opposing carry. They seem to have gotten a better grip on this recently, but as AL tries to move to the finals of the single elimination bracket expect their opponents, especially CIS squads like RoX.KIS, to attempt to exploit this potential flaw.





rat in the dark

sifla, lapiz, Spin, Buugi (C), Itake



How they got here: Rat in the Dark have had the most interesting road to this event of any of the 8 teams represented. After taking a collective 12th place in the Cups, making them the second-lowest seed to enter the group stage, Rat went 1-2 in Group C, seemingly disqualifying them from the main event. However, the last-minute exit of VP due to Airman losing his passport opened a slot for two teams to play a deciding series to make it into Katowice- neither of whom was Rat in the Dark. Opportunity struck when Kaipi announced they were also unable to make the trip to Poland, also due to loss of identification papers, which opened the door a sliver for Rat to prove themselves with an exciting 2-1 pre-playoff series win against TCM.



Team Status: This self-proclaimed "group of friends" rather than formal team arrangement from Finland has caught the eye of the DotA world with appearances in a lot of semi-open professional tournaments like WePlay Dota 2 and 4PL. As they showed in their games against TCM to make it to the LAN finals in Katowice, Rat do well when they are able to ensure that their #1, sifla, can find space for his highly efficient farm on midgame carries like Gyrocopter. However, they have had issues both with going high ground after securing an advantage and defending against early aggression or early push.







mousesports

Black^, FATA- (C), qojqva, Alex, paS



How they got here: Mouz scored a disappointing 7th in the Cup stage with no semifinal appearances but substantially improved for the Group stage in mid-March, going 3-0 in Group A including a classically Mouz-ish win over Fnatic.EU with good teamfights, safe coordination, and a conclusion where Black's farmed carry killed everybody.



Team Status: Mouz fans have got to be relieved that FATA- will after all make it to the LAN finals despite a fairly serious cycling injury to his wrist. So far #BrokenHandGaming has left FATA- unimpeded as a playmaker; his play against Empire in Mouz's final series before heading to Katowice was brilliant. Still, it remains a potential sticking point for Mouz as they fight through the more difficult half of the bracket, as do the other 2 persistent questions that dog Mouz as a team: are they too limited to fundamental 4 protect 1 play around Black in a world where teams are running two, three, and sometimes even four cores; and will morale over the course of the ups and downs of a LAN event be a problem for a team that has been known to feel their losses a little more personally than most?



Alliance

Loda (C), s4, AdmiralBulldog, Akke, EGM



How they got here: Alliance placed first by a large margin in Cup play, making it to the round of 4 in the first Cup and winning every subsequent one. In group C, NTH went 2-1, advancing easily although falling to DD in a surprising and uncharacteristic loss after mid lane slipped away from s4.



Team Status: On a pure recent-results basis, Alliance are the strongest team in the competition, coming off outright wins in Starladder and Dreamhack. The potential of all five players is almost boundless, they coordinate well as a team unit, Akke + EGM are the most dangerous support pair in Europe, and Admiral Bulldog has metamorphosed in the space of a couple months from "the weird Lone Druid dude" to maybe the best-known #3 player in the world outside of YYF. So why don't they feel like a predominant favourite? Maybe it's the bracketing: Alliance will have to play through two rounds of stiff competition to even reach the finals, much less win. Or maybe it's just that even in their most glorious victories Alliance still retains a shambolic, unpredictable element that makes for a team that fans love- or love to hate- but also constantly hints at impending doom, whether it be through occasionally baffling drafts and hero choices or inexplicable play mistakes in the heat of battle. Win or lose, Alliance may well continue to bring the most intriguing DotA to the table at EMS One.



Na`Vi

XBOCT, Dendi, Funn1k, Puppey (C), Kuroky



How they got here: Na`Vi approached the Cup stage of the tournament in typically effortless-or-lackadaisical Na`Vi fashion, winning the first Cup, placing second in another, and not bothering to show up to the other two since their qualification was by then assured. But this potential unseriousness almost cost them dearly in the group stage, where they only managed to qualify via time rating after finding themselves in a 3-way tie with AL and Kaipi.



Team Status: No one in their right mind could deny Na`Vi is on the shortlist of favourites to take home the $12,000 for first place, but the team is as hard to read and mercurial as ever. They've been bootcamping aggressively for the tournament and are traditionally strong on LAN, yet some of their matches lately have been shaky, unconvincing, surprisingly narrow, or all three. While the team's new roster has defeated Fnatic soundly, both of their potential semifinal opponents (Alliance and Mouz) have given the new formation lots of trouble recently. And then there's the crash and burn at the Techlabs LAN, about which the less said the better. If Na`Vi comes in with a clear head and strong form, it's tough to see another team on top when the dust settles, but if sloppiness or overconfidence creeps in the International runners-up won't even make it out of their half of the bracket.



Fnatic.EU

Era, N0tail, Trixi, H4nni (C), Fly



How they got here: Solid play with flashes of brilliance paid off yet again for Fnatic in the opening rounds of the EMS One Spring, as the team placed 2nd in one of the Cups and reached the semifinals in two others. They then placed second in Group A behind Mousesports.



Team Status: Fnatic are obviously one of the strongest teams in Europe, with a stable roster and one of the most consistent periods of high performance since their "breakthrough" in early 2013. That said, they've been going through a period of minor retooling, moving N0tail back to the solo mid role he used to enjoy in HoN and moving the captainship over to H4nni. By chipping away at their consistency and composure in a clearly defined role set and gameplan, at least in the short term, this potentially harms one of Fnatic's strongest values against teams like Na`Vi that bring more star power or overall Dota experience to the table. Still, having N0tail in the mid brings some star power of its own, and potentially lets Fnatic cook up some more surprises. Unfortunately, they're also getting thrown into the grinder, starting with 1-2 matchups they've historically had some trouble with: Na`Vi first, and quite possibly Alliance second.



NS' Armchair Analytics By dfs

This is a translation of Yaroslav "NS" Kuznetsov' blog post on Virtus.pro titled



Since it transpired that I couldn't go to EMS One myself, at least I can do some "armchair analytics" and try to predict the results of the tournament. It may be quite difficult to predict, and I will explain why as I go. The first game on the list: RoX.KIS vs DD.Dota.



A lot of fans from the CIS region will surely believe that Dread and co will win this match without any problems. I assure you, this is not exactly the case. RoX.KIS may have a higher chance to win, and they have shown good results lately, but their style is straightforward and easily readable.

DD.Dota - A Team With Great Potential

The surprising victories against stronger opponents have not been caused by true strength of the young RoX.KIS squad, but by the fact that stronger teams do not prepare against them and do not take them seriously (in most cases). As soon as someone begins to seriously prepare against such a team- and DD are preparing, I assure you, we play a few games against them every day- then things start to change.





Will Dread find victory when he flies to Poland? Will Dread find victory when he flies to Poland?

DD.dota is a team with great potential, in my opinion. It consists of the core of old MTW (minus Synderen, though) which showed excellent results a year ago with their victory against the "unbeatable" Na`Vi in Dreamhack Finals for example. This squad is practicing actively and is ready to show some good games. The composure of both teams will play a big role in this match too, obviously. Will RoX.KIS's young roster manage to avoid a LAN slump? Will DD.Dota recall their champion spirit and will to victory?



In any case it is very hard to predict such things. But if we get back to what we can talk about confidently, then my predictions are: DD.Dota 2:1 RoX.KIS. Although, to be honest, I would bet on DD 55% of the time and on RoX.KIS 45%. The chances of a RoX.KIS victory are quite high as well, but I am 100% sure that the score will be 2:1 either way.

Bad Luck With The Bracket

The second match, Rat vs AL, will probably be more predictable. Recently I stated that Rat had a good chances to play well in this tournament, but they got unlucky with their opponent draw. If they were paired against RoX.KIS or DD.Dota then I would bet on them, but against AL their chances are slim.





Will AL really take Phantom Lancer again? Will AL really take Phantom Lancer again?

The only thing the "rats" can count on are their surprise strategies and unpredictable plays. Similarly to the case of RoX.KIS, AL may underestimate them. Rat have a chance because at this moment they are the underdogs of the tournament. Sometimes it is less pleasant to play against underdogs than against clear favorites - at least you know what to expect from favorites.



AL has had the opportunity to research their opponent via their games with TCM, so I think they've made their conclusions. AL is a team that consists of strong 'old school' players. The team promotes aggressive Dota and deploy comps from the time when no one picked late game heroes, but picked 5 disables. This team is interesting to follow, and their games are rarely boring.



But I do have some misgivings. I am afraid that that on LAN, where the pressure for victory is preeminent, AL may get in a slump and start first picking PL. They may then just try to farm 6 slots like everyone else. In this case they may not play on the level that they are capable of. However, I hope that this will not happen. For me, AL is one of the favorites of this tournament, and not just because they ended up in the weaker part of the bracket.



My prediction is: AL 2:0 Rat. Rat's chances to win this match are close to zero, but chances to win 1 game are about 40%.



No Challenge Here

Now we move to the heavy artillery. The third match of the first day- Mouz vs Alliance. The lower part of the bracket looks way stronger than the upper one. Every match here promises to be a feast for Dota fans and a real challenge for the teams. In this particular match, Alliance is a clear favourite.





Alliance- champions of StarLadder StarSeries Season V Alliance- champions of StarLadder StarSeries Season V

Many analysts and simple viewers believe that this will be a tough fight, but I can assure you that will not be the case. For me this is the easiest match to predict. Mouz's style is easily counterable by Alliance's, because their styles are identical, but Alliance's execution is on another level. Farming Black can't outfarm farming Loda, not because he is worse than Loda, but because the supports, mid, and hardlaners from Alliance know what to do in this case far better than their Mouz counterparts.



Alliance also has the advantage of a wider hero pool. They have Chen push, Spectre + aggressive pressure, and of course Admiral Bulldog's Lone Druid. The only way Alliance can lose is if they outsmart themselves again like they did in Starladder V Finals.

My prediction: Alliance 2:0 Mouz. Mouz's chances to win the match are 10-15%, and chances to take 1 game are 20-30%.



What form is Na`Vi in?

The last match of the first day, Na`Vi vs Fnatic, is the most interesting one in my opinion, and the hardest to predict. The reason is that you can't conclude much about Na`Vi's current state, because their JD Masters games were not impressive. Indeed, the Juggernaut, N'aix, Batrider and tri-lans on the hard lane to get some exp, gold and then switch to roam is an iG strategy. Only, no offence to Na`Vi, their execution of this strategy is far from iG's level, so it comes off as a cheap fake.





What should we expect from Puppey this time? What should we expect from Puppey this time?

In this situation, if the few more remaining days of preparation don't fill up the the critical holes in Na`vi's play, then even a weaker team that has been riding the same wave and playing the same consistent style together for months on end has a chance to upset them. That's exactly the sort of team Fnatic is. They may be weaker in skill than Na`vi, they don't have the same aces up their sleeve and their play lacks anything nonstandard or surprising...



The way that Fnatic play isn't news to anyone, but what they do have is consistency and anyone who has doubts in their own play or tries to improvise on the fly is going to be gibbed. This even happened to Alliance in the finals of the last Starladder. All it took was for them to slightly depart from their most powerful and confident strategies for them to get bogged down in a game dictated by Fnatic, in which Fnatic somehow always finds a win. The main question for me is the level of form Na`Vi will bring to the tournament.



Something tells me that it will be enough to win against Fnatic. Although, the primary fact I take into consideration when making this prediction is that Na`Vi are much stronger than Fnatic on paper.

My prediction: Na`Vi 2:0 Fnatic. Although this match can end way differently, its outcome will determine the outcome of the whole tournament.



Based on the the previous predictions we get:



DD.Dota vs Absolute Legends

Alliance vs Na`Vi



DD.Dota vs AL should be an interesting game, although AL is the favourite here. AL's squad is more experienced and more interesting that DD's. Their playstyle is also more diverse. AL is a little crazy, so their play is often unpredictable, but always very aggressive.



Will a strong-willed victory give strength to DD.Dota?

The only thing that can help DD.Dota is faith after a strong-willed victory over RoX.KIS, if it even happens. My prediction: AL 2:0 DD.Dota. If I made a mistake and RoX.KIS advances instead of DD.Dota, then the RoX.KIS vs AL match may be more interesting. However, I still predict a 2-1 victory for AL in that case.





Loda and company are frequently their own worst enemy... Loda and company are frequently their own worst enemy...

Alliance vs Na`Vi is, again, very hard to predict, but may be easier to predict after seeing the Na`Vi vs Fnatic match.



If Na`Vi makes it to this match, then I am pretty sure they will win, although this would be a much harder match than against Fnatic. You could say that this should be the final, but what can you do?

My prediction: Na`Vi 2:1 Alliance.



It's worth noting that if Fnatic win against Na`Vi, then I would give the victory here to Alliance 2:0. Even moreso, if Na`Vi lose against Fnatic, then I will congratulate Loda with a Top-1 finish in advance!



AL are most likely in the finals, so who's next?



Based on the predictions above, the Na`Vi vs AL game has the highest chance to happen, about 60-70%. Although Alliance could very well be in Na`Vi's place here. The chances of this happening are very high as well. However, it is highly unlikely that Alliance or Na`Vi will face anyone but AL.



Nevertheless, RoX.KIS has a small chance to replace AL in the finals. A Na`Vi vs RoX.KIS finals would be extremely satisfying for CIS Dota fans, but it would not be very entertaining or intriguing.



So let's return to the more likely finals matchup of Na`Vi vs AL. Of course, the favourite here, especially after victories over Fnatic and Alliance, would unquestionably be Natus Vincere, but I wouldn't write off AL even against such grim opposition. I'm going to be unoriginal and say that in this situation Na`Vi will win, most likely 2-0... but AL have all the chance in the world of making it a fight, and maybe even pulling off a sensational upset.



The final standings prediction:

First place- Na`vi

Second place- AL

3rd/4th place- Alliance, DD

5th-8th place: RoX, Fnatic, Rat, Mouz



Remember, this is just a subjective prediction, based on my personal view, experience and knowledge about current power ranks in European DotA.



On The Ground In Katowice

Western LANs come so few and far between, and when they do roll around, everyone is always just a little more excited than usual. Use this handy Twitter feed to stay updated on what's happening in Poland this weekend. Want to join the convo? Just tweet with #EMS One or #EMS1 as a hashtag!



Tweets about "#EMS One OR #EMS1"





Playoff Poll

Part of the fun of a LAN, of course, is all the speculation. You know you're right, but there are a hundred other people on in the thread who are wrong, right? So, why don't you tell us - who will go all the way at EMS One?











Writers: Vykromond, TheEmulator, dfs

Gfx: Hawaiianpig, TheEmulator

Liquipedia: miwi

Editors: TheEmulator, riptide, Heyoka, Vykromond

The EMS One Spring LAN Finals will be held at the Angelo Hotel in Katowice, Poland . With a $35,000 prize pool at this LAN and some of Western DotA's best teams attending, you can rest assured that EMS One will give us a weekend to remember.First, we start off with a League Recap by TL staff writer TheEmulator. The EMS One preliminaries were played out over a series of four cups, and he provides you a quick breakdown of what went down, who advanced and who didn't. Next, Vykromond previews the teams for us in usual TL style Finally, our feature article for you this weekend comes in the form of this blog post by Virtus.pro player Yaroslav "NS" Kuznetsov . Translated by dfs, our Russian correspondent, it includes NS' thoughts on the tournament, including his own predictions of who will advance, and eventually win EMS One!Well, the games are set to start in a few hours, so go stock up on food and beverages! Then, come game time, join us in our Live Report thread and be sure to follow what's happening in on the ground in Katowice via this neat little twitter stream . Also be sure to vote - Who will win EMS One? The RaidCall EMS One Season 1 had a very unique format, quite unlike many of the other leagues currently ongoing. The league was split into 4 online cups played over the last few months, with the top 12 teams based on total points gathered at the end advancing to the main event.The four online Cups had some great games throughout. There were definitely 4-5 teams that performed a step above the rest, but most notably, Alliance (ex-NTH), Na`Vi, and Virtus.pro dominated the competition every time. Alliance won 3 out of the 4 Cups, which was a very impressive feat to witness. The first Cup was won by Na`Vi, and they also got 2nd place in the third Cup. Virtus.pro didn't win a Cup, but they managed to sneak into the top 4 for all 4 Cups, something which not many teams managed to accomplish. Fnatic.EU did great as well, and even came out with the same amount of points as Na`Vi. However, they didn't end up winning, but they were more consistent than Na`Vi overall. The other 8 teams advancing teams did great as well, as it's quite a feat to get enough points to advance without actually winning one of the Cups. Take a look at the final standings here:Next, it was on to the online group stages. The top twelve teams from the cups, plus the four invited squads who came in via the A-Series battled it out over a course of one week, and only the top eight survived. In Group A we saw mousesports and Fnatic.EU advance. It was a fairly easy bracket for them,as they went up against two underdogs of the event, Fnatic.NA and TCM-Gaming. It was no surprise that they came out on top.Group B was extremely close throughout, with 3 of the teams finishing with a score of 2-1. One of the favourites, Team Liquid, actually went 0-3 in this group, which no one expected. In the end Na`Vi and Absolute Legends advanced. Group C was much like the first group; in other words, we expected DD.Dota and Alliance to advance with ease. The other teams aren't on the same level quite yet, but rat in the dark still showed some good games. The final group was probably one of the toughest to predict. Virtus.pro and RoX ended up advancing, though Airman had passport problems, and this meant that VP couldn't make the LAN. Thus, rat in the dark played TCM for VP's spot and bagged it. They will be in Katowice this weekend, along with everyone else.And thus we come to the end of EMS One this weekend. With the offline finals set to begin soon in Katowice, Poland, you can bet your bottom dollar that these teams are going to give it their best shot! Apart from the generous prize money it offers, the tournament is also attractive because it will be one of the last major LAN events before Dreamhack Summer 2013, and thus everyone has something to prove here. Let the games begin!This is a translation of Yaroslav "NS" Kuznetsov' blog post on Virtus.pro titled Armchair Analytics Since it transpired that I couldn't go to EMS One myself, at least I can do some "armchair analytics" and try to predict the results of the tournament. It may be quite difficult to predict, and I will explain why as I go. The first game on the list: RoX.KIS vs DD.Dota.A lot of fans from the CIS region will surely believe that Dread and co will win this match without any problems. I assure you, this is not exactly the case. RoX.KIS may have a higher chance to win, and they have shown good results lately, but their style is straightforward and easily readable.The surprising victories against stronger opponents have not been caused by true strength of the young RoX.KIS squad, but by the fact that stronger teams do not prepare against them and do not take them seriously (in most cases). As soon as someone begins to seriously prepare against such a team- and DD are preparing, I assure you, we play a few games against them every day- then things start to change.DD.dota is a team with great potential, in my opinion. It consists of the core of old MTW (minus Synderen, though) which showed excellent results a year ago with their victory against the "unbeatable" Na`Vi in Dreamhack Finals for example. This squad is practicing actively and is ready to show some good games. The composure of both teams will play a big role in this match too, obviously. Will RoX.KIS's young roster manage to avoid a LAN slump? Will DD.Dota recall their champion spirit and will to victory?In any case it is very hard to predict such things. But if we get back to what we can talk about confidently, then my predictions are: DD.Dota 2:1 RoX.KIS. Although, to be honest, I would bet on DD 55% of the time and on RoX.KIS 45%. The chances of a RoX.KIS victory are quite high as well, but I am 100% sure that the score will be 2:1 either way.The second match, Rat vs AL, will probably be more predictable. Recently I stated that Rat had a good chances to play well in this tournament, but they got unlucky with their opponent draw. If they were paired against RoX.KIS or DD.Dota then I would bet on them, but against AL their chances are slim.The only thing the "rats" can count on are their surprise strategies and unpredictable plays. Similarly to the case of RoX.KIS, AL may underestimate them. Rat have a chance because at this moment they are the underdogs of the tournament. Sometimes it is less pleasant to play against underdogs than against clear favorites - at least you know what to expect from favorites.AL has had the opportunity to research their opponent via their games with TCM, so I think they've made their conclusions. AL is a team that consists of strong 'old school' players. The team promotes aggressive Dota and deploy comps from the time when no one picked late game heroes, but picked 5 disables. This team is interesting to follow, and their games are rarely boring.But I do have some misgivings. I am afraid that that on LAN, where the pressure for victory is preeminent, AL may get in a slump and start first picking PL. They may then just try to farm 6 slots like everyone else. In this case they may not play on the level that they are capable of. However, I hope that this will not happen. For me, AL is one of the favorites of this tournament, and not just because they ended up in the weaker part of the bracket.My prediction is: AL 2:0 Rat. Rat's chances to win this match are close to zero, but chances to win 1 game are about 40%.Now we move to the heavy artillery. The third match of the first day- Mouz vs Alliance. The lower part of the bracket looks way stronger than the upper one. Every match here promises to be a feast for Dota fans and a real challenge for the teams. In this particular match, Alliance is a clear favourite.Many analysts and simple viewers believe that this will be a tough fight, but I can assure you that will not be the case. For me this is the easiest match to predict. Mouz's style is easily counterable by Alliance's, because their styles are identical, but Alliance's execution is on another level. Farming Black can't outfarm farming Loda, not because he is worse than Loda, but because the supports, mid, and hardlaners from Alliance know what to do in this case far better than their Mouz counterparts.Alliance also has the advantage of a wider hero pool. They have Chen push, Spectre + aggressive pressure, and of course Admiral Bulldog's Lone Druid. The only way Alliance can lose is if they outsmart themselves again like they did in Starladder V Finals.My prediction: Alliance 2:0 Mouz. Mouz's chances to win the match are 10-15%, and chances to take 1 game are 20-30%.The last match of the first day, Na`Vi vs Fnatic, is the most interesting one in my opinion, and the hardest to predict. The reason is that you can't conclude much about Na`Vi's current state, because their JD Masters games were not impressive. Indeed, the Juggernaut, N'aix, Batrider and tri-lans on the hard lane to get some exp, gold and then switch to roam is an iG strategy. Only, no offence to Na`Vi, their execution of this strategy is far from iG's level, so it comes off as a cheap fake.In this situation, if the few more remaining days of preparation don't fill up the the critical holes in Na`vi's play, then even a weaker team that has been riding the same wave and playing the same consistent style together for months on end has a chance to upset them. That's exactly the sort of team Fnatic is. They may be weaker in skill than Na`vi, they don't have the same aces up their sleeve and their play lacks anything nonstandard or surprising...The way that Fnatic play isn't news to anyone, but what they do have is consistency and anyone who has doubts in their own play or tries to improvise on the fly is going to be gibbed. This even happened to Alliance in the finals of the last Starladder. All it took was for them to slightly depart from their most powerful and confident strategies for them to get bogged down in a game dictated by Fnatic, in which Fnatic somehow always finds a win. The main question for me is the level of form Na`Vi will bring to the tournament.Something tells me that it will be enough to win against Fnatic. Although, the primary fact I take into consideration when making this prediction is that Na`Vi are much stronger than Fnatic on paper.My prediction: Na`Vi 2:0 Fnatic. Although this match can end way differently, its outcome will determine the outcome of the whole tournament.Based on the the previous predictions we get:DD.Dota vs Absolute LegendsAlliance vs Na`ViDD.Dota vs AL should be an interesting game, although AL is the favourite here. AL's squad is more experienced and more interesting that DD's. Their playstyle is also more diverse. AL is a little crazy, so their play is often unpredictable, but always very aggressive.The only thing that can help DD.Dota is faith after a strong-willed victory over RoX.KIS, if it even happens. My prediction: AL 2:0 DD.Dota. If I made a mistake and RoX.KIS advances instead of DD.Dota, then the RoX.KIS vs AL match may be more interesting. However, I still predict a 2-1 victory for AL in that case.Alliance vs Na`Vi is, again, very hard to predict, but may be easier to predict after seeing the Na`Vi vs Fnatic match.If Na`Vi makes it to this match, then I am pretty sure they will win, although this would be a much harder match than against Fnatic. You could say that this should be the final, but what can you do?My prediction: Na`Vi 2:1 Alliance.It's worth noting that if Fnatic win against Na`Vi, then I would give the victory here to Alliance 2:0. Even moreso, if Na`Vi lose against Fnatic, then I will congratulate Loda with a Top-1 finish in advance!AL are most likely in the finals, so who's next?Based on the predictions above, the Na`Vi vs AL game has the highest chance to happen, about 60-70%. Although Alliance could very well be in Na`Vi's place here. The chances of this happening are very high as well. However, it is highly unlikely that Alliance or Na`Vi will face anyone but AL.Nevertheless, RoX.KIS has a small chance to replace AL in the finals. A Na`Vi vs RoX.KIS finals would be extremely satisfying for CIS Dota fans, but it would not be very entertaining or intriguing.So let's return to the more likely finals matchup of Na`Vi vs AL. Of course, the favourite here, especially after victories over Fnatic and Alliance, would unquestionably be Natus Vincere, but I wouldn't write off AL even against such grim opposition. I'm going to be unoriginal and say that in this situation Na`Vi will win, most likely 2-0... but AL have all the chance in the world of making it a fight, and maybe even pulling off a sensational upset.The final standings prediction:First place- Na`viSecond place- AL3rd/4th place- Alliance, DD5th-8th place: RoX, Fnatic, Rat, MouzRemember, this is just a subjective prediction, based on my personal view, experience and knowledge about current power ranks in European DotA.Western LANs come so few and far between, and when they do roll around, everyone is always just a little more excited than usual. Use this handy Twitter feed to stay updated on what's happening in Poland this weekend. Want to join the convo? Just tweet with #EMS One or #EMS1 as a hashtag!Part of the fun of a LAN, of course, is all the speculation. You know you're right, but there are a hundred other people on in the thread who are wrong, right? So, why don't you tell us - who will go all the way at EMS One? Administrator