On Tuesday, the provincial government hands out a piece of paper with a simple graph and an arrow pointing down.

It looks into the crystal ball and sees 31,800 jobs lost in Alberta between now and December.

The piece of paper tells us this year “will be one of the weakest years for jobs in the last 25 years.”

Just last summer it was so nice and hot but the oil price tanked more than 50% since those happier times and now the party is over and those in charge are starting to pick up the empties.

The Progressive Conservatives of the past decade jacked up spending beyond inflation and the growth in the population while being given landslide victories by Albertans.

In the last full budget year, had they stuck to hiking their spending by the increases in the cost of living and the population, they would have spent $8 billion less than they did.

The current PCs say they have a $7-billion shortfall for this coming financial year because of low oil prices.

In a decade, Toryland spent $49 billion more than inflation and population growth.

These are billions with a B.

If only they hadn’t been drunken sailors. If only so many Albertans hadn’t let them and rewarded them. But they did.

So here we are, another day of dark clouds with many more in the forecast.

The province says the economy will grow just enough so it’s not going backward into recession. They say the economy is “facing headwinds.”

Oil prices plunge. Oil and gas investment is expected to be down about 30% in 2015. Far fewer people are expected to move here from other provinces.

Toryland speaks of challenges.

One fact is mentioned more than once this day.

These are the contracts already signed with provincial public sector workers and how the deals will increase spending by $2.6 billion over the next three years.

In a government press release Premier Prentice says the contracts and the low oil price “have created a very challenging fiscal outlook for Alberta.”

The press release itself says the done deals are “causing added pressure at a time when the current government is dealing with a significant revenue shortfall.”

Budget boss Robin Campbell mentions the contracts when he speaks to the newshounds.

He goes further and mentions how the provincial government last year spent $22-billion-plus on wages.

The wages until now, says Campbell, have been offset by lots of oil cash going into the provincial kitty. Much of that dough is gone.

“We can’t go on this way,” says Campbell.

The finance minister says the province will honour existing contracts and negotiate tough on new talks coming up.

But honouring contracts doesn’t mean the province couldn’t go to the unions and offer them a between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place choice.

There’s only so much cash. Pay cut or layoffs.

Neither the premier nor Campbell rules out such a pick-your-poison scene.

They don’t rule it in but they don’t rule it out.

And everyone in the know realizes cutting 5% from those government dollars not spent on wages is pretty easy. Wages are the sticking point.

A few days back Campbell said the following words about existing wage deals.

“If I don’t have to pay that, it helps me tremendously.”

It could mean something. It could mean nothing.

And so it goes.

Campbell says this year’s $7 billion shortfall could possibly be larger in future years.

He says Albertans want the province to get its spending under control. Finally.

The most repeated words from the budget boss. Tough decisions.

He pushes away the suggestion corporate taxes should go up. They aren’t.

“We have companies hanging on by a thread,” says Campbell.

Royalties aren’t going up either. Neither will there be a higher tax bracket for high-income earners.

For that, you will have to vote NDP.

On the right, Wildrose MLA Drew Barnes, expected to run for his party’s leadership, speaks of mismanagement and overspending and “job-killing taxes.”

Barnes mentions getting rid of layers of government management and says the Wildrose will roll out their financial prescription next month.

Wildrose doesn’t want tax hikes or new taxes so their number crunching will be eagerly awaited.

Meanwhile, Campbell once again warns of the days ahead, getting you ready for what they plan to do.

“It won’t be easy,” he says.

“This isn’t going away overnight.”