The Government is in serious danger of suffering a humiliating defeat in next week's Seanad vote on the establishment of Irish Water.

A defeat in the Upper House would represent a serious setback for the Coalition's plans to finally put the Irish Water fiasco to bed and add to the chaos surrounding the setting up of the company.

The Coalition is in a minority in the Upper House.

This means the fate of the bill will to be decided by five university senators and five of the Taoiseach's nominees, all of whom are Independents.

FG's Seanad Whip Paul Coghlan told the Sunday Independent: "The numbers are very tight, we need every vote."

One Government source admitted: "No-one knows what will happen with the Taoiseach's nominees, there are dark forces at work there."

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If nine of the 10 Independent senators vote against the Government, the bill will be defeated. A number of these, including Taoiseach's nominee Marie Louise O'Donnell and the Independent Sean Barrett, have been scathing about the bill on the floor of the Seanad.

FF Seanad leader Darragh O'Brien confidently predicted the defeat of the bill. He told the Sunday Independent: "We believe we have the numbers, there will be a full three-line whip next week to ensure that this mess is dropped to the ground stone-dead."

Another Fianna Fail senator added: "We are very confident; Enda's hopes will be pinned on securing two out of the three votes of [Senators] Jillian van Turnhout, Fiach Mac Conghail and Katherine Zappone. We believe we have David Norris and John Crown. Ronan Mullen will want to protect his rural vote. Feargal Quinn is unimpressed, so if Enda doesn't get both of those, Irish Water's goose is cooked."

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Mr O'Brien said the defeat of the bill would be hugely embarrassing for the embattled Coalition. He added: "A loss in the Seanad would delay the setting up of the company for months, you can forget any plans to start issuing bills in January."

Mr O'Brien denied Fianna Fail was being opportunistic in its tactics. "Our position is clear - we want Irish Water charges suspended and the company to be scrapped. We are not being obstructionist. This thing is set up to fail - it has to stopped," he added.

The Seanad can only delay the passing of the Irish Water Bill for three months. But Mr O'Brien warned: "A defeat for the Government could cause chaos. It will mean that Irish Water cannot be established for another three months. Irish Water will not be able to implement charges or send out bills if it is not properly established. It will be in cold storage and a hot political issue well into the New Year."

Sunday Independent