ABOUT US

Let's start with the name: Why Red Team Scouting? What is red teaming?

Think of it this way: Imagine you are the coach of a basketball team and you want to improve your defense. One method would be to split the team into two parts, with an assistant coach and the best offensive players playing the role of an opposing offense. The two units scrimmage for 10 possessions at a time, followed by a timeout that allows each side to evaluate and make adjustments. By repeating this process again and again, the defense gradually improves. Weaknesses are identified, adjustments are made, and the entire unit becomes stronger.

In this example the defense would be considered the blue team, and the goal of exercise is to make the blue team stronger. The offense would be considered the red team, with an objective to help the blue team identify weak points which need to be improved so that the team as a whole is ready for game day. The best teams and organizations do this on a daily basis. By parsing both their successes and failures, they can reinforce sustained excellence and eliminate unwanted outcomes.

But improving weaknesses is only half the battle. Context is critical. Understanding why a certain defensive scheme failed is as critical as understanding how. Basketball is an evolutionary game, with entire games swinging on a critical possession, on strategic shifts, or an exploited match up. Without context, a team may be able to scheme how to prevent something that beat them once, but not the next evolution. Without defining and understanding the context of our failures, we are always playing catch up. Without contextualizing success, we may not be able to capture lightning in a bottle again.

Red teaming is a common practice in many domains: war games in the military, cyber-security firms hired to run penetration tests, a politician conducting opposition research to uncover their own weakness. In each case the goal is to prepare for any situation that might occur down the road, to understand the how and the why.

Why does basketball scouting need to be red teamed? To be prepared for any situation that might occur on draft day.

The draft is a fast-paced event that can evolve quickly. Unexpected scenarios may arise, and unlikely opportunities may develop. Yet, even in situations where a team has more than a month on the clock after winning the lottery, there can be flaws in the foundation of their preparation.

Let's consider the example of the 2013 Cleveland Cavaliers, a low light in NBA Draft history. Per Jason Lloyd of the Athletic, 9 of the 11 people involved in the decision agreed that Anthony Bennett was the right choice. In fact, they were so convinced that even though the owner and the general manager preferred other players (Victor Oladipo and Ben McLemore, respectively) they were swayed by the consensus from the remainder of the group.

Take a moment to think about how that situation could possibly occur. Bennett was an effective player as a freshman in college. He was expected to be a lottery pick, though most outside the Cavaliers organization did not consider him a viable candidate for the No. 1 pick.

The pre-draft process for an NBA team is, out of necessity, very insular. If knowledge of a team's rankings leaks out it impacts the game theory of the draft, putting the team at a disadvantage. However, the resulting situation is ripe for group think, endangering key decisions that significantly impact the future of billion dollar organizations.

While we have no first- or second-hand knowledge of how the pre-draft process unfolded in Cleveland that year, it seems clear from an outside perspective that groupthink was a problem. If that front office had sensed the danger of forming a consensus in a year where there was no clarity at the top of the draft then perhaps the disaster would have been averted. A red team could have been assigned to illuminate the risks associated with Bennett and the flaws in his resume.

Which lends itself nicely to the next logical question: Who are we?

Red Team Scouting was founded on the principle of giving an unbiased, straightforward, analytical perspective. Cutting out cognitive biases and mental shortcuts, we strive to provide a comprehensive overview of each player entering the draft. With our assessment process, we try to present a well-rounded view which paints the complete picture of who a player is and who they project to be down the road. With our grading process, we use a collection of statistical and human intelligence factors (and a Bayesian analytical model) to establish a comparative understanding of where each player stands relative to current NBA talent. By using over a hundred unique data points, we try to put each player in context.

Our goal is to present draft content unlike anything else on the internet.

For fans, that means a hub of knowledge to get you up to speed on the current draft class. For organizations, it means an outside opinion on critical personnel decisions from the first pick in the draft to undrafted free agents to fill out Summer League and G-League rosters. We work tirelessly to uncover team concepts and analyze why they succeed or fail. By examining players and rotations on a micro level, we are able to provide integral solutions to filing roster holes.

But no solution is perfect forever. We are always trying to improve our modeling and our approach, evolving with the ever changing game we all love so much. Staying up to date with changes in the NBA landscape is pivotal to staying ahead of the curve. And that's where we want to be. We hope you enjoy the content and analysis we provide. Thank you all so much for allowing us to pursue our passions.

—Red Team Scouting