Somewhere in an office far far away.

I’m starting work on my new ticket :) All I have left to do is to estimate how long it will take.

Why?

*Rolls Eyes* Isn’t it obvious! the business needs certainty around how long the ticket will take.

And you think an estimate will give it that certainty?

Well yes, I mean not a complete certainty. Some projects like HealthCare.gov, Universal Credit and NHS Connecting for Health estimates were wrong.

When is it right?

Err. sometimes.

Can you name a time?

No.

So we have something that is regularly wrong, and we’re using it to give the business certainty.

Fine! Fine! Fine! They’re not perfect they are ‘Fast and dirty’

That just sounds like another word for wrong…

Fine, they are a ‘finger in the wind’.

…

Oh come on, everyone knows they aren’t perfect.

Do they?

Yes, everyone is aware. There are all sorts of things that go wrong. Nobody expects estimates to be perfect. That is what the word estimate means.

Have you ever bought anything off amazon?

Yes.

And when you order does it give you a delivery estimate?

Yes.

And when the order takes longer than the estimate, what do you do?

Complain.

Oh. It’s just an estimate, everyone knows that there are all sorts of things that can go wrong.

An estimate is a binding promise. You might not have intended it to be so. But that is exactly how it will be interpreted by those on the receiving end.

Ok fine, but don’t forget we are estimating on a ticket by ticket basis. Small Tickets mean fewer unknowns.

No, small estimates can be wildly wrong based on small changes. Have a headache? Aone day story becomes a 1.5. If the next day is Friday it’s a 2-day task. If you have a half day meeting it’s a 3-day task. if you have 2 days holiday it’s a 5-day task. Unfamiliar with the system? it’s a 6-day.

Fine! fine! fine! we won’t break it down in days we’ll do T-shirt sizes. like S, M, L, XL etc.

If it takes me 6 days to do an S what would you say?

Why are you taking so long?

Oh, but I thought that T-shirt sizes weren't in days

Well, they’re not but…

They’re just a thin layer of obfuscation over the number of days. Ultimately people who look at it will think in terms of how long each story will take.

Fine! but we need to have an Idea of how big a story is

Small

What do you mean small?

Small, all your tasks should be broken down into bitesize chunks. By definition, every task is an S.

So what you seriously want me to believe is that estimates are useless. That they give the impression of certainty but their inaccuracy means that they’re not. You want me to think that the best thing to do is just not bother.

Yep.

But what if my BA wants them?

Link them to this blog.

But it can’t hurt to Just use them right? It keeps the BA happy.

How do you feel when you miss a deadline?

A bit shit to be honest.

Is it a good Idea to make your devs feel like shit?

Ummm no?

How do you feel when you think you might miss a deadline?

Stressed! as I have to do long hours and leave my family at home.

Is it a good Idea to make your devs feel stressed?