Matteo Renzi is preparing to formally submit his resignation to Italy’s president after defeat in Sunday’s referendum, as the country faces questions over whether it is on the brink of a takeover by populist and rightwing parties.

The prime minister conceded shortly after midnight on Monday and is expected to head to the presidential palace, the Quirinale, on Monday afternoon.

His attempt to overhaul the constitution and parliament was rejected by 59.1% of voters, on a turnout of 68%.

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As newspaper headlines noted the demise of the man who was Italy’s youngest prime minister when he took office in 2014 – one headline said Renzi, 41, simply had “too many enemies” – attention quickly turned to what may happen next, with few certain answers.

The anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) and the xenophobic Northern League quickly sought to capitalise on Renzi’s defeat and said they wanted snap elections, even before a planned reform of electoral laws is to go ahead.

Luigi Di Maio, one of the M5S’s rising stars, declared that the populist movement was ready to form a government, while the Northern League head, Matteo Salvini, said his fringe party – which has its roots in secessionism – ought to be considered a “serious alternative”.

Salvini said the result – and the strong showing of the far right candidate in the Austrian presidential election on Sunday – was a clash of “all against one”.

Daniele Caprera, the UK spokesman for the M5S, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that it was on the brink of coming to power.



“We are very credible. We want to change Italy. We want to participate in Europe but we need somebody who will listen. So far they have failed … All they have been focused on is economics and austerity,” Caprera said.

Most analysts dismissed the idea that the main forces behind the no vote would succeed in their bid for immediate elections. They agreed that the president, Sergio Mattarella, would be able to install a new prime minister and caretaker government, which would oversee changes to the electoral laws that would make it more difficult for the M5S or Northern League to win a strong majority in parliament.

If Mattarella is able to cobble together a coalition government, it could delay elections until as late as 2018.

Giovanni Orsina, a professor of Italian politics at Luiss University in Rome, said one of the most immediate questions was what kind of control Renzi could maintain over his party and his delicate ruling coalition.

“This very much depends on what happens in the bowels of the PD [Renzi’s Democratic party], and nobody knows,” he said.

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Orsina said a majority of the PD may want to install a prime minister such as Dario Franceschini, currently the culture minister, who could lead the party through all of next year. Franceschini is seen as a dynamic potential rival to Renzi, and some analysts believe choosing him would raise questions about Renzi’s ability to stage a comeback.

Orsina said Renzi would probably prefer a caretaker government to be in place for as long as is needed to pass the electoral laws, and then take his chances at a new election, still at the helm of the party.

If a caretaker government is decided, other possible replacements for Renzi include Pier Carlo Padoan, the finance minister, or Pietro Grasso, the speaker of the senate.

While Italy grapples with the complicated political chess game – including questions about whether Renzi has enough support in his party to remain at the helm and therefore continue to be a possible kingmaker – the result has been viewed by many as yet another win for populist and anti-Europe forces.



After weeks of crisscrossing the Italian peninsula to try to persuade Italians to vote si (yes), final results on Monday showed that only relatively small pockets of voters backed the prime minister’s proposals, including areas of his native Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna, and the city of Bolzano.

Italians living abroad also backed the plans, but the no victory was overwhelming, with areas of southern Italy, such as Catania, voting more than 70% against change. While it is still unclear what motivated the vote, the outcome reflected a view that Renzi has not paid enough attention to the beleaguered south during his tenure.



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The referendum result will be seen as a rejection of establishment politics in favour of populist and anti-immigrant forces, much like the UK’s vote in June to leave the European Union and the election last month of Donald Trump in the US.

But that could be an over-simplification of the results. Many voters interviewed by the Guardian in the weeks leading up to the vote – including those who said they were to the left of Renzi and were not supporters of Grillo or Salvini – expressed concern about the proposed changes to the constitution.

The changes, in effect, would have neutered the senate and given much more power to Renzi and future prime ministers. Prominent no voices included Mario Monti, the former prime minister and ex-European commissioner, who is hardly an anti-establishment figure.

Renzi made constitutional reform a central plank of his premiership and argued for months that the changes would make Italy more stable and more likely to adopt tough-but-needed economic and labour policies.

But the prime minister did not overcome the steep decline in his own popularity and the mistrust of voters, who were disappointed that he could not or did not do more to improve the economy and cut unemployment.

For many, the plebiscite became a vote of no confidence in the premier. Renzi’s personality – jovial but verging on arrogance – made him seem far removed from the worries of ordinary Italians, some said.