Mark Barrett

mbarrett@citizen-times.com

Hillary Clinton has grabbed the lead in North Carolina, two recent polls suggest, despite the fact that one found a good number of Tar Heels think she is the devil.

Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling put Clinton at 43 percent to Donald Trump’s 41 percent in a poll based on interviews conducted Aug. 5-7. PPP said that was the first poll it has conducted since March showing Clinton ahead.

A little more recently, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll said Clinton leads Trump among registered voters with 48 percent to Trump's 39 percent. Among those who say they will definitely vote in November, the margin was 45 percent to 39 percent for Clinton.

The difference in the PPP poll was less than the poll’s margin of error, 3.4 percent, but Clinton’s lead exceeded the Marist poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percent.

The most recent poll done before those two, conducted for conservative think tank Civitas Institute just after the Democratic National Convention ended, said Trump was up 46 percent to Clinton’s 42 percent. That suggests there has probably been some movement in sentiment in the state since the party conventions, although it is smart not to base your view of the status of the race entirely on any one survey, be it Civitas', PPP's or the Marist poll.

PPP, which usually works for Democratic clients, asked questions based on several unusual statements that popped up in the presidential race in the days before it conducted its poll. One was Trump’s suggestion that Clinton is the devil.

The poll found that 41 percent of Trump voters say she is indeed the devil and 42 disagree.

More than two-thirds of Trump voters, 69 percent, also think that if Clinton wins the election, it will be because it was rigged. Only 16 percent think it will be because she got more votes, the poll found.

The poll said 40 percent of Trump voters think the liberal organization ACORN will steal the election for Clinton. Never mind the fact that ACORN filed for bankruptcy in 2010 and went out of business thereafter.

You are permitted to wonder just how many North Carolinians really think voting for Clinton is akin to devil worship.

PPP has a history of tossing unusual questions into its polls that might elicit a chuckle or more publicity for its results. “Deez nuts” got a fair amount of support in a few presidential polls it conducted last year.

Some people at the firm might not mind if they think their work makes Trump backers look bad. But, it’s hard to say how literally to view the results. Not everyone takes answering a political poll as seriously as a pollster might want.

The polls don’t show that the presidential race is over in the state, either. In a typical election year —not that this one has been typical so far -- many people don’t focus much on the races until after Labor Day or later, the candidates have yet to debate and events close to Election Day can have an outsized impact on results.

The recent shakeup in the leadership of the Trump campaign suggests we may see more of Trump unscripted, not less. But if Trump manages to avoid statements that offend or worry undecided voters, can shift the focus to Clinton or issues that favor him and an outside event alters the race, the poll numbers could shift significantly.

By the way, the Marist poll found North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race to be a virtual tossup and showed Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper ahead of Gov. Pat McCrory.

Democrat Deborah Ross led Republican incumbent Richard Burr among registered voters 46 to 44 percent, but among those who say they will definitely vote in this year’s election, Burr was ahead 47 percent to 45 percent.

Cooper led McCrory 51 percent to 44 percent among registered voters and 53 percent to 44 percent among definite voters.

Links to poll results are below.

Clinton leads in NC for first time since March

Clinton Strong in Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia... Maintains Advantage in Florida | Home of the Marist Poll: Pebbles and Pundits