The endorsement of a current or former MP is giving Conservative leadership candidates, on average, a 3.85 per cent boost in the ridings those MPs represent or used to represent, according to a Mainstreet Research analysis.

“The point of this exercise was to see whether or not endorsements have any impact. And the answer to that question is yes, but it really depends on who,” said Mainstreet Research President Quito Maggi.

To isolate the impact of MP endorsements, Mainstreet compared the level of support a candidate has among party members in a province or region (based on the iPolitics CPC Leadership Tracker, powered by Mainstreet Research) to the level of support they have in an individual riding.

If a candidate is outperforming their provincial or regional support at the riding level, for example — and has an endorsement from the MP or former MP in that riding — the difference could be the effect of an endorsement.

The most striking example of that correlation is in the Saskatchewan riding of Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, where Lisa Raitt has significant support despite not doing well overall in the province (3.38 per cent).

Though the riding is currently held by the NDP, former MP Rob Clarke — who held the riding from 2008 to 2015 — has endorsed Raitt, which may explain what’s driving her support there.

The second greatest endorsement effect is seen in the Quebec riding of Beauport—Limoilou, where MP Alupa Clarke’s support of Maxime Bernier has helped bump Bernier’s lead in the province (39.18 per cent of all Quebec members). Mainstreet estimates a 44.15 endorsement effect for Bernier in the riding.

Other endorsement effects of note are Chilliwack—Hope MP Mark Strahl’s endorsement of Andrew Scheer (33.03 per cent); Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo MP Cathy McLeod’s of Erin O’Toole (26.93 per cent); and Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix MP Sylie Boucher’s of Scheer (23.93 per cent).

By Mainstreet’s estimate, there are only seven ridings where an an endorsement has actually given a candidate a lead.

Part of the explanation for that is a clustering effect, where an endorsement in an area of strength — think Battlefords—Lloydminster MP Gerry Ritz’s endorsement of Andrew Scheer — doesn’t have as great an impact because Sheer is already leading in Saskatchewan.

On average, Raitt is getting the biggest boost from endorsements (8.71 per cent), followed by O’Toole (6.21), Bernier (4.48), and Scheer (1.96 per cent).

That’s based on 106 ridings where an MP or former MP has endorsed a candidate and another seven where there are multiple endorsements, such as Cariboo — Prince George, where the current MP Todd Doherty is supporting O’Toole and his predecessor, Dick Harris, is supporting Raitt.

“That perceived strength of someone with a lot of caucus support — the truth is, it doesn’t necessarily translate into points,” Maggi said.

At the same time, in a race where every riding is worth 100 points, locking up as many of those points as possible ultimately could make a significant difference.

To that end, Mainstreet also took a look at how the leadership candidates are doing in the ridings they represent — or represented — to see if they’re getting any kind of boost, a sort of self-endorsement effect.

That analysis left out Kevin O’Leary and Rick Peterson, who’ve never had a seat in the House of Commons.

Michael Chong is benefiting from a 69.80 per cent boost in his own riding of Wellington—Halton Hills — the largest of all the candidates.

He’s followed by Lisa Raitt in Milton (58.21 per cent), Steven Blaney in Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis (49.54 per cent), and Erin O’Toole in Durham (48.49).

Again, this is measuring the support they have in their ridings compared to their provincial or regional support.

The poll was conducted between Jan 5 and Feb 17, reaching 2,047 Conservative party members with a margin of error of +/- 2.09, 19 times out 20.

The iPolitics CPC Leadership Tracker, powered by Mainstreet, will be tracking the Conservative leadership race until members pick the next leader on May 27. For additional information on methodology and to subscribe to in-depth updates, click here.