"Hear me now and believe me later," says Jonathan Chait in The New Republic: If Republicans take control of the House, they will try to impeach President Obama. They won't succeed in removing him from office, Chait says, but given that key congressmen are already calling "mini-scandals" or non-scandals impeachable offenses, you can bet that the GOP's "political warfare" will include an impeachment attempt if Obama wins a second term. Would the GOP really try? Would they succeed?

Care to wager, Mr. Chait? It is "nuts" to think Republicans will impeach Obama, says Jonah Goldberg at National Review, and I'll bet Chait "$500 to the charity of the winner’s choice it doesn't happen." (Chait accepts.) If I'm wrong, and Obama actually commits an impeachable offense, he adds, losing $500 "would be a small price to pay for justice."

"I'll take that bet"

Impeachment is plausible: Chait's right on a few points, says Ben Smith at Politico. If Republicans win the midterms, "it will be open season for investigations." And impeaching the president would certainly please the constituents of many House Republicans. Sooner or later, though, GOP leaders "may recall that the Clinton impeachment worked out poorly."

"The impeachment of Barack Obama?"

GOP leaders won't allow a "suicide mission": Some impeachment-minded Republicans, like Rep. Michele Bachmann, believe prosecuting Clinton was a political success in the sense that it tainted Al Gore's 2000 run, says Doug Mataconis in Outside the Beltway. But Obama doesn't have Clinton's "baggage," and today's House GOP leaders aren't "bomb-throwers" like Newt Gingrich. It would take much more than petty talk-radio gripes to turn the impeachment initiative into anything beyond a GOP "fringe movement."

"Will a Republican Congress impeach President Obama?"