Minister of Families, Children and Social Development Jean-Yves Duclos makes his way to Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Monday, January 29, 2018. iPolitics/Matthew Usherwood

Liberal cabinet minister Jean Yves Duclos is leading in his Quebec riding 80 or so days out from this October’s election, a new Mainstreet poll for iPolitics suggests.

In the phone survey of 684 adults, conducted between July 23-24, 30 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the Liberals if the election was held today, with the Conservatives the second most popular option at 23.4 per cent. The Bloc Québécois was close behind with 20 per cent of support, while the NDP and Greens were essentially tied at about seven per cent apiece.

Just over eight per cent of respondents said they were undecided and 2.7 per cent backed Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada.

The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.



Duclos, who’s currently serving as minister of families, children and social development, was elected to the House in the 2015 vote, emerging victorious in a tight four-way race.

READ MORE: Conservatives narrowly ahead in GTA riding of Whitby, suggests Mainstreet poll

He won the riding, which covers central Quebec City, with just under 29 per cent of the vote, with then-incumbent NDP MP Annick Papillon grabbing roughly 27 per cent of all ballots cast. The Tories won nearly 22 per cent of the vote, compared to roughly 19 per cent for the Bloc.

In the poll, the Liberals are leading among both men and women, and every age band save for 35 to 49 year olds, who support the Conservatives more than the governing Grits.

Upon his election, Duclos, the former head of the economics department at Université Laval, became the first Liberal MP for the Quebec riding since 1984.

The Bloc’s Christiane Gagnon represented the riding from 1993 to 2011, where she was felled by the NDP’s ‘Orange Wave.’

In the poll, the Liberal lead over the Conservatives remains at seven per cent when leaning voters are added in the mix but grows slightly to eight per cent when leaning voters are included but undecideds are excluded.

READ MORE: Liberals comfortably ahead in Niagara Centre: Mainstreet poll