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OTTAWA — The federal deficit under Finance Minister Bill Morneau will balloon over the next fiscal year, leaving the minority Liberal government in a worse fiscal position than expected early in its second mandate.

In its fall economic update on Monday, Finance Canada said the deficit would rise to $26.6 billion in 2019-20, up from an earlier projection of $19.8 billion. Between 2019 and 2024, deficits are expected to outpace projections by roughly $35 billion.

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Ottawa also saw a slight rise in its federal debt-to-GDP ratio, often cited as a crucial fiscal anchor by Morneau, from 30.8 per cent in 2018 up to 31 per cent.

A weaker balance sheet comes amid ongoing worries over a trade dispute between the U.S. and China, which has already slowed Canadian exports and business investment. Economic growth over the five years between 2019 and 2023 is expected to average 1.8 per cent, a level considered entirely healthy but still below the Bank of Canada’s target rate of two per cent inflation.