HUNTSVILLE, Ala. — The first and most vital task for Doug Jones to pull off a once-unthinkable upset in Alabama: Get Republican voters comfortable with the idea that it’s OK to pull the lever for this Democrat, if the alternative is scandal-wracked Roy Moore.

“I’m a Republican, but Roy Moore? No way,” one man says in Jones’ latest ad, released Tuesday. “I’m a lifelong Republican, but I just can’t do it,” another concurs. The word “Democrat” is not uttered once.


Nearly unthinkable even a week ago, the prospect of Jones becoming the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Alabama in a quarter century has suddenly become very real. Jones remains an underdog in a state that chose Donald Trump by a 28-point margin in the presidential election, and where Democrats make up just over a third of the electorate, according to polling.

But he does have a path. Here's how it looks, according to interviews with nearly a dozen Democrats within and near Jones' team since Moore was hit with accusations of pursuing — and in two cases abusing — teenage girls. First, create a permission structure for alienated Republicans who are skeptical of Moore — primarily those who voted against him in the GOP primary — to cross the aisle. At the same time invigorate the base, especially African-Americans, who make up over a quarter of registered voters, according to the Alabama Secretary of State's office. And finally, keep the national Democratic Party and its despised brand as far out of the picture as possible, while still benefiting from its money.

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Even before the parade of Moore accusers came forward — a sixth did so on Wednesday — local Democrats were quietly upbeat. Controversial in state politics for decades, Moore received just 51 percent of the vote in his last statewide race — during a 2012 election cycle in which Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney carried Alabama with 60 percent of the vote.

Here’s a look at Jones’ game plan ahead of the Dec. 12 election:

Win over Strange voters

Jones will need to bring over some of the state’s suburban moderate Republicans who preferred Sen. Luther Strange to Moore in September's first round of voting, which Strange lost by 10 points.

That will mean making inroads in regions with high shares of college-educated white voters, including Shelby County, Madison County (home of Huntsville), Jefferson County (home of Birmingham), and Montgomery (home of Montgomery city). And it will entail driving down turnout in the more rural parts of Alabama where support for Moore — a former official in Etowah County, home of Gadsden — is strongest.

Jones' allies expect a renewed focus on the counties that backed Strange over Moore.

“These stories about Judge Moore, I think, have the effect of having people give a harder look to him and who he is … and what kind of senator he’d be,” said Birmingham lawyer Giles Perkins, a top Jones adviser. Moore was removed twice from the state Supreme Court and has a history of racist and homophobic comments. "The race was in play before this week.”

Keep D.C. Democrats at bay — to a point

In an attempt to keep the national Democratic Party at arm’s length — and thereby not scare away Republicans — Jones canceled a fundraising trip to Washington this week, skipping an event that would have put him in a room with high-profile Democratic leaders like California Sen. Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, national-level Democrats are plying their hero-in-the-making with advice, money and tweets — without crossing the line into being a public, backfiring nuisance.

High-profile national surrogates are also steering clear of the state: The most famous person to visit Alabama for Jones so far, former Vice President Joe Biden, now has no plans to return. The only other prominent Democrat to appear for Jones — civil rights icon John Lewis — has been deployed to help with African-American turnout. He appeared in Mobile with Jones over the weekend.

“You don’t win those kinds of races by having people from out-of-state go in and tell them what they should do — that nationalizes the race and turns the spotlight on our stereotype,” said former Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, who said he’d recently spoken with Jones. “The people of Alabama will decide they’ve had enough, and we should get out their way and let that happen.”

“There’s an expectation that he can carry his own over the next four weeks,” added Democrat Randall Woodfin, the mayor-elect of Birmingham, where Jones campaign signs dot the city and its suburbs.

At the same time, Jones is still relying on fundraising help from national Democrats to help fuel his massive spending advantage over Moore on the television airwaves. Senate Democrats’ campaign arm is sending a stream of fundraising emails for Jones, and prominent senators, like Tim Kaine, Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Kirsten Gillibrand have tapped their campaign supporter lists to help Jones, to great financial effect.

Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly, in a fundraising note of his own, compared the race with his 2012 victory over a controversial Republican, and Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy’s appeals netted Jones over $125,000, according to a Democrat familiar with the figures.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and DNC have remained in close touch with Jones’ team after monitoring the race for months and offering organizing and messaging guidance. But neither has made plans to step in any further, eager to keep the spotlight on Moore and away from themselves.

Even the fact that Monday’s news conference held by a fifth Moore accuser with celebrity lawyer Gloria Allred occurred in New York City, not Alabama, sent grumbles through the ranks of Democrats.

Invigorate the base



Jones allies are now looking through the results of Moore’s last race to see how they can improve upon the Democrats’ near-win five years ago. That will likely involve running a more sophisticated turnout operation in largely African-American neighborhoods in the cities.

Much of Jones' recent campaign activity has zeroed in on these voters. In addition to the rally with Lewis, he has appeared in both Montgomery and Birmingham — two cities with among the highest proportion of African-American residents in the country. In the last week, he has also visited the far reaches of the state, from Mobile in its southwest corner to Fyffe in the northeast.

Organizing efforts, meanwhile, have largely focused on the so-called Black Belt, a collection of roughly 18 counties including Montgomery and Sumter — where Strange beat Moore.

Still, even if Jones executes this plan to perfection, there’s no guarantee he’ll win. Democrats haven't won any statewide race in Alabama since 2008, after all, and haven't gotten a senator elected here since 1992.

"There is unvarnished skepticism of The Washington Post, and media in general, among grass-roots conservatives,” said Republican state Sen. Phil Williams of Gadsden, outlining Jones’ challenge and pointing to the paper that broke the first story about Moore and his past behavior. Williams, who endorsed Moore over Strange, said the accusations meant the race would be “closer” than it otherwise would be, but predicted Moore would still win.



CORRECTION: This story has been updated to correctly identify Roy Moore as being twice removed from the state Supreme Court and having a history of racist and homophobic comments.