Yes, this is a boring pick. I also decided not to pick J.J. Watt as my Defensive Player of the Year prediction before last season because that felt too boring. Rodgers occupies a similar space to Watt on offense. He's the best player squarely in the middle of his prime, and should be considered the favorite to win the MVP every year until proven otherwise. The loss of Jordy Nelson may paradoxically help Rogers' case. Voters love stories of players overcoming their surroundings, and Rogers' ability to light up this scoreboard this year without his top receiver will show his greatness anew. Even without Nelson, we'd argue that Rodgers' weapons are better than ever before because of his excellent offensive line and running game. This is a Packers team set to lead the league in scoring, with or without Nelson.