Richard Charnin

April 18, 2013

Updated Aug.2, 2014

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JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database



Hit List: An In-Depth Investigation into the Mysterious Deaths of Witnesses to the JFK Assassination by Richard Belzer and David Wayne, is a unique and welcome addition to the massive trove of JFK Assassination literature.

There is no conjecture here, just the facts surrounding fifty mysterious witness deaths presented in an easy-to-read format. Warren Commission apologists are reduced to irrelevancy; the proof of conspiracy is overwhelming and beyond any doubt. The authors cite my probability analysis as background information.

Here are the graphs and probability calculations which prove a conspiracy: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/



The 1973 film Executive Action depicted a conspiracy to assassinate JFK and revealed that an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated the probability of 18 material witnesses dying within three years of the JFK assassination as 1 in 100,000 TRILLION.

The actuary’s odds are confirmed assuming:459 witnesses and 0.000207 weighted total mortality rate.



In this video, Mark Lane, famous author/investigator of several books on the assassination, interviews Penn Jones, an independent researcher of JFK witness deaths.

Assuming the data and calculation methodology were essentially correct, then it was clear proof of a conspiracy and refuted the Warren Commission’s conclusion that Oswald was the lone assassin. A comprehensive probability analysis shows that the actuary’s odds were conservative. There were many more than 18 suspicious deaths.

The proof is in the post Executive Action: JFK Witness Deaths and the London Times Actuary which links to the JFK Witness Database Spreadsheet Model.



The probability analysis is straightforward; it is not a theoretical exercise. It is a mathematical proof of conspiracy based on factual data (552 Warren Commission witnesses, at least 20 unnatural deaths, corresponding mortality rates) and the Poisson probability formula. The numbers and probabilities speak for themselves. This is a challenge to those who still claim that the deaths do not prove a conspiracy: To substantiate your claim, you must refute the data (i.e., the Warren Commission witness list), the unnatural mortality rates and the use of the Poisson formula.



This is a sensitivity analysis of unnatural witness deaths.

There were approximately 1400 JFK-related witnesses. In 1964-1978, at least 78 were officially ruled unnatural (homicide, suicide, accidental, unknown). The others were suspicious heart attacks, sudden cancers, etc. Normally 17 unnatural deaths would be expected.

Some have questioned the relevance of the unnatural and suspicious witness deaths related to the assassination. Of the 122 witnesses in the database, 67 were sought or testified at the Warren Commission, the Clay Shaw trial, the Church Senate Committee, and the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA). Thirteen testified or were sought in two of the investigations. Therefore, they were indisputably relevant.

The probability of exactly n deaths among N witnesses over T years given mortality rate R is calculated using the Poisson function: P (n) = Poisson (n, N*T*R, false)

The probability of at least n deaths is P (n) = 1- Poisson (n-1, N*T*R, true)

The probability of at least

19 UNNATURAL deaths within ONE year is E-30 (1 in a TRILLION TRILLION).

42 UNNATURAL deaths within THREE years is E-50 (ZERO).

78 UNNATURAL deaths within FIFTEEN years is E-62 (ZERO).

Assuming the JFK witness WEIGHTED unnatural rate, the probability of

20 UNNATURAL deaths among 552 Warren Commission witnesses is 1 in 1 TRILLION

46 UNNATURAL deaths among 1100 witnesses called by WC, Garrison, Senate, HSCA is ZERO.

The average national HOMICIDE rate in 1964-78 was 0.000084.

There were at least 34 officially ruled homicides.

P= E-31 = 1 in a million trillion trillion)

Warren Commission apologists have suggested that there were many more than 1400 material witnesses and therefore the probabilities are not valid – without providing a list. Even assuming 25,000 witnesses, then given the 0.000084 homicide rate, the probability is 1 in 38 billion of 25 homicides in the 3 years following the assassination. But how many of the suicides, accidents, heart attacks and sudden cancers were actually homicides? The probability would be much lower. So much for the bogus 25,000 witnesses argument.

This graph shows the long-term trend in U.S. homicide rate. Note that in 1963 the rate was approximately 6 per 100,000. The average rate from 1964-78 was 0.000084.



Warren Commission – 552 witnesses

In the 3 years following the assassination, there were at least 10 unnatural deaths. Applying the 0.000068 weighted unnatural rate, the probability is 1 in 12000 TRILLION – the same order of magnitude as the London Times actuary’s calculation. There were at least 20 unnatural deaths from 1964-78. Applying the 0.000138 weighted unnatural mortality rate, the probability is 1 in 500,000 TRILLION.

The following unnatural mortality rate table displays the cause of death, expected number of deaths among 1400 witnesses, actual number of deaths,mortality rate, and JFK witness vs. U.S. unnatural death weightings.





Cause.......... Exp Ruled Rate JFK U.S.

Homicide....... 1.77 34 0.000084 43% 10%

Suicide........ 2.73 16 0.000130 21% 16%

Accident.......12.47 24 0.000594 31% 73%

Unknown........ 0.21 04 0.000010 05% 01%

Total..........17.18 78 0.000818 100% 100%

