Team Elo Match

W-L Map +/- 3-0s 3-1s 3-2s Opponent

Week 10 Tempo Storm 1546 10-3 +18 4 5 1 Gale Force HeroesHearth 1586 10-3 +14 2 6 2 LFM Esports Team Twelve 1579 9-4 +14 4 3 2 No Tomorrow Team Freedom 1463 8-5 +9 4 3 1 Simplicity Gale Force 1381 6-7 -4 1 3 2 Tempo Storm Simplicity 1430 5-8 -6 3 1 1 Team Freedom LFM Esports 1300 2-11 -19 0 1 1 HeroesHearth No Tomorrow 1252 2-11 -24 0 2 0 Team Twelve

Turns out I'm not dead.Anyways, here's where we stand in NA at the moment:

We know that LFM and No Tomorrow will be in the Crucible. From there, all seeds are up for grabs.

#1 Seed - Autobid to Blizzcon MSB

#2 Seed - Final boss of Stepladder Playoff

#3 Seed - I have nothing clever to say about this seed

#4 Seed - Best Last Seat

#5 / #6 Seeds

It's actually fairly straighfoward, though there are a lot of scenarios.If Tempo Storm wins, they take the #1 seed.If Tempo Storm loses AND HeroesHearth wins, HeroesHearth takes the #1If Tempo Storm loses 2-3 AND HeroesHearth loses, Tempo Storm takes the #1 seedIf Team Twelve wins 3-0, and HHE loses, and Tempo Storm loses 1-3 or 0-3, Team Twelve takes the #1 seedIf Team Twelve wins 3-1, and HHE loses, and Tempo Storm loses 0-3, Team Twelve takes the #1 seedIf Team Twelve wins, and HHE and Tempo lose, but Team Twelves doesn't pass Tempo Storm in map margin, Tempo takes the #1 seedIf all three lose, Tempo Storm takes the #1 seedOdds of #1 Seed:Tempo Storm - 86.7%HeroesHearth - 13.0%Team Twelve - 0.3%The #2 seed doesn't ascertain MSB, but it means you only need to win 1 match to get there. While this may seem like a safe path, in both NA HGC Playoffs last season, the top seed (#2 Gale Force in Phase 1, #3 Gale Force in Phase 2) failed to win the series. So it's no sure thing. But that said, it still gives you better odds than a #3 seed on paper.First, let's list the odds, then talk scenarios:Odds of #2 Seed:HeroesHearth - 84.0%Team Twelve - 11.7%Tempo Storm - 4.3%HeroesHearth is most likely to step into the #2 seed. Given that all of the top 3 are pretty heavily favored this weekend, the most likely scenario is all 3 win, leaving HHE at #2. However, if HHE trips up, and Tempo Storm wins, Team Twelve can clinch #2 by winning on Saturday. What is interesting is that if Tempo Storm loses to GFE, they are most likely to drop to 3rd place, rather than drop to 2nd, because of how favored HeroesHearth and Team Twelve are.The three seed is the lowest that Tempo Storm and HHE can fall, and is the most likely destination of Team Twelve. However there is a VERY small chance that Team Freedom can sneak in here. The odds:Team Twelve - 87.9%Tempo Storm - 9.0%HeroesHearth - 3.0%Team Freedom - 0.1%Let's focus on Freedom's way into the top 3, since it's narrow enough I can say "if this doesn't happen, Team Freedom is the 4 seed".Team Freedom has to pass, not tie, Team Twelve in map margin. Team Twelve owns the head to head (2-0) over Team Freedom, which is the second tiebreaker after map margin. The only way Team Freedom can pass Team Twelve is:Team Freedom beats Simplicity 3-0Team Twelve loses to No Tomorrow 0-3Given how No Tomorrow has been struggling, and Simplicity has been surging, this seems extremely unlikely. But I guess it's possible. I remember saying Zealots had nearly no chance to make Western Clash, and then they beat Dig.The 4 seed is the lowest seed that isn't on the bottom of the stepladder. From here, you'd have to win 3 matches to make MSB.Odds:Team Twelve - 0.1%Team Freedom - 99.9%For Team Twelve to drop to the 4 seed, Team Freedom has to take the 3 seed (again, TF 3-0s, TT 0-3s). Otherwise Team Freedom will take the 4 seed no matter what else.We already know that Gale Force and Simplicity will be the 5 and the 6 seeds. However, this may not be respectively.In most cases:If Gale Force wins OR Simplicity loses, Gale Force will be the 5 seed.If Simplicity wins And Gale Force loses, Simplicity takes the 5 seed.The only really interesting scenario is if Simplicity wins (3-2) and Gale Force loses (2-3), they would be tied on map score at -5. But in this situation, Simplicity takes 5 with more 3-0s, since it's the same as any other Simp win GFE loss scenario.5 Seed does matter from the ability to pick the server, so it's not just an academic thing.