The anti-Rob Ford campaign is swaying Torontonians and reversing Ford’s momentum, suggests a new Toronto Star-Citytv poll that shows him heading into the election’s final week virtually tied with George Smitherman.

“The criticism of Rob Ford is sticking and it’s resonating and at this stage his momentum is negative,” said Jodi Shanoff, a senior vice-president of Angus Reid Public Opinion, which conducted the poll.

The survey of 1,001 Torontonians on Thursday and Friday shows 41 per cent of decided voters supporting Ford, compared to 40 per cent for Smitherman and 16 per cent for Joe Pantalone. Three per cent picked other candidates.

With the civic election on Oct. 25, one in five respondents remained undecided.

The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. That puts the front-runners in a dead heat, with Ford having lost most or all of the 13-point lead he enjoyed one month ago in the previous Star poll.

A Nanos Research survey released on Sunday gave Ford a slightly larger lead but confirmed the momentum is with Smitherman.

The Ford juggernaut that saw the Etobicoke councillor surge in polls from spring to September on a vow to “stop the gravy train at city hall” appears to have started rolling backwards.

The Toronto Star-Citytv poll gauged candidates’ momentum by asking respondents if their impressions of the three main hopefuls improved, stayed the same or worsened over the past 30 days. A rating was determined by subtracting the number of “worsened” responses from the “improved.”

Pantalone, the deputy mayor promising to continue Mayor David Miller’s legacy, with tweaks including scrapping the vehicle registration fee, had the most momentum at +2.

Smitherman, the former deputy premier promising fiscal accountability and a property tax freeze next year, plus a host of city-building initiatives, is at –1.

Ford, who has promised new subway stops, social spending and $1.7 billion in budget surpluses over four years with no service cuts, got a “decidedly negative” rating at –21.

“Pantalone’s momentum is positive but it isn’t enough to push him over the top, obviously,” said Shanoff. “Pantalone and Smitherman are holding steady.”

Shanoff noted Ford’s transit and fiscal plans received mostly negative reviews in the media.

Also, since Labour Day, Smitherman, Pantalone and others have issued klaxon cries that a Mayor Ford and his promised billions of dollars in spending cuts would — in the words of Sarah Thomson when she dropped out of the race and endorsed Smitherman — “rip apart” Toronto.

“Voters are hearing bad things, they’re remembering these things and their impressions of Ford are worsening as a result,” Shanoff said.

The poll also found that so-called strategic voting has taken hold, with 21 per cent of Torontonians backing one candidate to ensure another doesn’t get elected.

Forty per cent of Smitherman supporters say they are voting strategically. He is encouraging the practice, targeting centre-right supporters of Rocco Rossi until Rossi dropped out last week, and going especially hard after Pantalone’s “progressive” following, declaring: “A vote for Joe Pantalone is a vote for Rob Ford.”

“The anybody-but-Ford campaign has had some traction and George Smitherman is the beneficiary of that,” Shanoff said.

And, it appears, Pantalone supporters remain ripe for the picking.

One month ago, half of decided respondents said they were firm in their choice of candidate and wouldn’t change their minds. That figure has climbed to 68 per cent.

Ford continues to have the firmest support, with 76 per cent saying they won’t shift allegiances, up from 66 per cent in September. Smitherman’s support has hardened, to 69 per cent firm from 39 per cent a month ago.

But about half of Pantalone supporters continue to say they might change their minds. When asked for their second choice, most of Pantalone’s supporters — 63 per cent — said Smitherman.

Overall, Pantalone “is Toronto’s second-choice candidate” with 35 per cent of respondents naming him as their backup pick, compared to 22 per cent for Smitherman and 9 per cent for Ford, Shanoff said.

Ford supporters are exceptionally loyal, with almost of half, when forced to name a second choice, picking “other.”

This topsy-turvy election hasn’t changed the top-of-mind issues for Torontonians. Primary concerns remain public transportation (21 per cent), government spending (17 per cent) and leadership (16 per cent).

A remarkable 76 per cent of respondents say they are very likely to vote on Oct. 25, with 14 per cent “somewhat” likely. In 2006, only 39.3 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot.

Shanoff warned against assuming voter turnout will surge, even though city staff on Friday reported record attendance at advance polls. She said trends say it is unlikely turnout will be above the normal range of 35 to 45 per cent.

Some 33 per cent of respondents said they are following the election closely, up from 25 per cent one month ago.

Gaining voter support is part of the battle. Getting them to the polls is another. Campaigns for all three candidates spent the weekend trying to mobilize supporters in efforts that will intensify through the week.

The Ford campaign is thought to have particularly strong get-out-the-vote organization, using supporters’ contact information gleaned from Ford’s “telephone townhalls.”

Toronto Star-Citytv Poll

Rob Ford 41%

George Smitherman 40%

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Joe Pantalone 16%

Other 3%

Conducted Oct. 14 and 15 by Angus Reid Public Opinion.

The survey of 1,001 Torontonians has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Previous Toronto Star polls

Sept. 14/15

Ford 39

Smitherman 26

Panatalone 13

Other 22

Aug. 25/26

Ford 42

Smitherman 36

Pantalone 11

Other 11

Undecideds

Oct. 14/15

20%

Sept. 14/15

36%

Aug. 25/26

28%