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Every October, the Nobel Prize for Literature is awarded — and every September, speculation over who will win that prize begins. Traditionally, the guessing game starts with British betting site Ladbrokes releasing its odds, which are then endlessly debated until the secretive Swedes make their announcement.

The odds for this year's Nobel have been released, and Japanese novelist Haruki Murakami is the frontrunner (3-1), with prolific American writer Joyce Carol Oates trailing behind (6-1), followed by Hungarian novelist Peter Nadas. However, as The Guardian explains, Murakami — however deserving of such commendation he is — need not start writing his Nobel lecture just yet:

Ladbrokes is running with Murakami, but the firm has got it wrong before. In 2011, a run of bets prompted it to slash odds on Bob Dylan from 100-1 to 10-1 24 hours preceding the announcement of the winner. That year, Adonis was a 6-1 favourite, followed by Murakami (8-1) and the eventual winner, [Swedish poet Tomas] Tranströmer (10-1).

Murakami is the author of highly acclaimed novels like The Wind-Up Bird Chronicle and Kafka on the Shore. His latest, Colourless Tsukuru Tazaki and His Years of Pilgrimage, has not yet been translated into English, but is selling extremely well in Japan.