Before we get into the main topic, a few things. Check out profantasyesports.com. Great blog with a lot of great nuggets. Secondly, for all you podcast listeners, go ahead and subscribe to Facecheck Podcast for a great group of guys talking about league to get you through your daily commute.

What We Know

KEITHMCBRIEF put up a ridiculous 76.08 in Week 1 of Spring 2015. Good for 2nd best performance by any ADC in any week of Spring 2015. (Only after Freeze’s 93.8 Week 3) KEITHMCBRIEF hit the 10 Kill/Assist bonus TWICE in Week 1. Freeze and Steeelback leads all ADCS with FOUR (4) 10 K/A through 4 weeks. Team Liquid (TL) had 48 kills in Week 1. Proceeded to have 51 kills in Week 2-4 COMBINED. Before accounting for substitutes, TL had one of the most difficult set of matchups / strength of schedule in Week 1. KEITHMCBRIEF’s 15 kills in Week 1 accounted for 31% of TL’s total kills. Piglet’s 14 kills in Week 2-4 accounted for 27% of TL’s total kills.

Critical Issues

We only seen KEITHMCBRIEF in one week of LCS play against two teams that were fielding substitutes. However, the counter argument is of course that KEITHMCBRIEF himself is a substitute and that the team should have been theoretically weaker as well.

We cannot say for sure that TL as a whole would’ve done a whole lot better had the stuck with KEITHMCBRIEF. Using TL’s data through Week 2-4 would not be an accurate projection of his individual fantasy performance. Well, we gotta do it anyways.

“Projections” of KEITHMCBRIEF Week 2-4

So before looking ahead to Week 5, what if we held TL’s overall team performance constant (which is really bad) and slotted KEITHMCBRIEF in over Piglet?

Here’s what we’re going to do. It is unrealistic to use KEITHMCBRIEF’s Week 1 line of 7.5/1/11.5 as an average. Instead we’ll take his Kill%/Death%/Assist% out of the whole team’s total for week 1. It comes out to 31.25%/8.7%/18.55%. For Weeks 2-4, we’ll also assume TL put up the exact stats and equal farm. The question here would be, if given the exact outcome of each match, would KEITHMCBRIEF out perform Piglet.

The projected points here do not mean much because we assumed TL performed just as poorly if KEITHMCBRIEF was in for Piglet. But the main takeaway here was Piglet didn’t lose every week.

Week 5 Outlook

By now, I must be testing your patience. “I don’t care about any of that, what should I expect out of Week 5?!”

There must be a happy medium where we can incorporate KEITHMCBRIEF’s Week 1 slash line with TL’s projected performance taking into account Strength of Schedule, Average Kills Given up by Week 5 Opponents, and Kill/Assist Participation %. Well, that’s exactly what I did.

TL’s YTD Data

Team KDA KAVG DAVG AAVG Total PTS Avg PTS SoS Upcoming SoS TL 3.5 12.38 12.5 31.38 634.23 79.28 0.5 0.616

TSM & WFX YTD Data

Team KDA KAVG DAVG AAVG Total PTS Avg PTS SoS Upcoming SoS TSM 6.64 16.50 9.38 45.75 894.83 111.85 0.499 0.382 WFX 3.77 14.13 13.38 36.25 709.69 88.71 0.500 0.498

KEITHMCBRIEF YTD Data

Player KAVG DAVG AAVG ACS Total AVG PTS KPCT APCT KEITHMCBRIEF 7.5 1 11.5 329 76.08 38.04 31.25% 18.55%

Lynnx’s Week 5 Projected Pts: 46.97

That would be good for Rank 1 among all ADCs for Week 5.

Do I think he’ll score 45+ pts AND be the best ADC in Week 5? No.

Do I think he is a Top 8 ADC for Week 5? No, but it’s close.

Do I think he is startable in Week 5? Definitely.

KEITHMCBRIEF should maintain top 10 ADC value as long as he is starting with Top 3 upside. Needless to say, PICK HIM UP if he is still available in your league. I wouldn’t drop any top 10 ADC for him though (except P1noy). There’s a slim chance Piglet also returns to the starting lineup at some point in the season.