Even before the health-care fiasco, Heller was seen as the most vulnerable Senate Republican up for election in 2018. Now, it’s hard to imagine — absent a really rotten opponent — that he could hold on. Jon Ralston, the guru of Nevada politics, wrote before the PPP poll results were released, “The velocity and ferocity of reaction makes it seem now that Heller can’t possibly survive this — just check social media if you want to see some real anger and vitriol. And no one really wants to step back and see that he will have votes on the straight repeal and perhaps other amendments that his current detractors want him to cast.”

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Compared with Heller, red-state Democratic senators up in 2018 have done a solid job of opposing President Trump on bread-and-butter issues (e.g. health care, tax cuts for the rich) while deviating as needed on other issues. Sens. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), for example, voted to confirm Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court. While Trump remains popular in their states, they are on solid ground in opposing him on an array of issues. Meanwhile, in states where Trump won in 2016, he is now underwater in approval. That’s good news for Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.). As Newsweek reported last week: “More folks disapproved than approved of Trump in Ohio (48 disapproval-47 approval), Pennsylvania (52-43), Wisconsin (52-43).”

All of this comes on top of more evidence that Trump has not hit rock-bottom yet in polling. “Trump plunges to a new low as American voters disapprove 61 – 33 percent of the job he is doing, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today,” reads Quinnipiac’s release. “White men are divided 47 – 48 percent and Republicans approve 76 – 17 percent. White voters with no college degree, a key part of the president’s base, disapprove 50 – 43 percent.” He gets negative ratings in every policy area, drawing only 28 percent approval for his handling of health care.

There are a couple points to extract from all this.

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First, the impression of Trump among swing-state voters six months — or two years — after the 2016 election likely will make him a burden, not an asset for Republicans. Democrats who have opposed him on his unpopular initiatives (e.g. cutting Medicaid, repealing Obamacare) need not fear a backlash from constituents so long as they have clear, consistent explanations for checking Trump’s power. They want to advance an agenda favorable to lower- and middle-class workers, something Trump has neglected — to his political detriment. Yes, it is entirely possible Senate Democrats run the table and don’t lose a single seat in Senate midterms heavily tilted in Republicans’ favor (the GOP must defend just nine seats; Democrats must defend 25). A shift to a Democratic majority in the House seems more and more likely, as there has been a jump in Democrats’ lead in generic polling.