by Aaron Schatz

A big win against Minnesota continues to bring Seattle closer to Denver on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings for 2013. Less than one percentage point now separates the two teams, and with strong offensive play the last two games, all three Seahawks units now rank seventh or higher. They've even moved into the top spot for special teams.

Meanwhile, remember when I said in Audibles that this week's Denver-Kansas City game showed us that these teams "are who we thought they were?" The DVOA system definitely agrees. Denver's rating changed by only one-tenth of a percentage point this week, going from 36.9% to 36.8%. Kansas City dropped a little bit more than that, but not by much, going from 13.0% to 11.3%.

Perhaps the biggest surprise is that Chicago continues to hover among the top teams in DVOA despite a backup quarterback and a ton of defensive injuries. They aren't the only NFC North team hanging around despite injuries; we still have the Green Bay Packers ranked 12th in the league. You may not have noticed, but even though they lost the game, they outgained the Giants 7.3 yards per play to 5.3 yards per play this week.

It's also interesting to note that Carolina drops slightly and New England rises slightly, because the DVOA system gave the Patriots a higher rating than the Panthers for Monday night's close Panthers victory. We give the Patriots credit for getting down to the 18-yard line on their final drive; even if they couldn't finish the job, the fact that they could move 62 yards in less than a minute against one of the league's top defenses is a good sign for the improvement of their offense. Add those extra yards that didn't result in a score to the fact that the game's only fumble was recovered by the Panthers, and we end up with the Patriots a little bit higher, although this is one of those times that a close game between two good teams means both teams got a positive single-game DVOA (42.7% DVOA for New England, 14.6% DVOA for Carolina).

Our biggest rising team this week is Philadelphia, which moves from 15th to 10th. The Eagles were 24th just three weeks ago, but their last three games are their three best games of the year by DVOA, and each game gets a rating above 50%. This isn't just Nick Foles playing out of his gourd; the Eagles have also played better defense in recent weeks. This isn't yet reflected in the official NFL rankings, where the Eagles rank 31st as one of just two teams to give up more than 400 yards per game (Dallas is the other). But the Eagles now have given up just 5.6 yards per play, which ranks 19th in the league. DVOA, which looks at turnovers and situational play, puts them somewhere in between, at 26th.

This is a good time for the usual Football Outsiders screed about how ridiculous it is to rank defenses based on yardage allowed, because there are some major differences this year between the official NFL rankings for defense and the defensive DVOA ratings. For example, did you know that 2-8 Houston is technically the best defense in the league by the league's official standards? The Texans have allowed a league-low 286.1 yards per game. Do you think that maybe has something to with the fact that Houston has fallen behind in almost every game, often by a significant amount? Or maybe it is related to the fact that the Texans had faced just 97 drives on defense through Week 10, more than only three other teams. And that's partly because Houston opponents have run one play every 28.65 seconds, the 30th-ranked pace in the league. Also not reflected in the NFL's official rankings that only consider yardage: the Texans are also last in the league with only 11 interceptions and fumbles on defense (including fumbles recovered by either team). J.J. Watt is great, a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year once again. But the rest of the Houston defense is very much not near the top of the league this year.

Cleveland is another team where there's a big gap between the official NFL ranking (fifth in yards allowed per game) and the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings (19th). This one is a little more surprising, because we thought the Browns would have a better defense this year with Ray Horton arriving as defensive coordinator, and the eye test sure does suggest they have a good defense this year. (It helps that they had their best defensive game by DVOA in this week's game against Cincinnati.) There are a couple issues here. First, like Houston, the Browns don't have a lot of turnovers, with just eight interceptions and five fumbles (four recovered by the Browns themselves). The Browns look better than they really are because they've had an easier schedule of opposing offenses (27th in the NFL). They also have trouble getting off the field on third downs; they currently rank sixth in defense on first down, 18th on second down, and 30th on third or fourth down.

No team specifically stands out as the opposite of Houston and Cleveland, a team with a very good defensive DVOA that still gives up a lot of yardage. The closest might be Arizona, which moved back into the top spot in defensive DVOA this week but still ranks just ninth in yards allowed per game. Buffalo is another team like this, ranking seventh in defensive DVOA and 16th in yardage allowed. The Cardinals and Bills are fifth and fourth, respectively, in defensive DVOA on third downs. They are also both in the top five for interceptions plus fumbles forced on defense.

One thing I forgot to note last week: The FO playoff odds will run on ESPN Insider Tuesdays for the rest of the regular season, with Danny Tuccitto writing a report on which teams are most likely to make the playoffs and how it has changed each week. You can check that out if you want a sneak peak at the odds before they get posted on FO Tuesday afternoons. This week's article is here. Another note on the playoff odds is that Denver is listed as ">99.9%" because their playoff odds currently would round up to 100 percent but I don't want it to look like they've clinched a playoff spot yet.

BEST AND WORST DVOA EVER WATCH

Something very strange happened this week: the New York Giants and Houston Texans both had reasonable games on special teams. In fact, the Texans special teams were quite valuable this week. The Raiders couldn't get a kickoff past the 21, Shane Lechler had another good game punting, and Keshawn Martin returned a punt for an 87-yard touchdown. The Giants' special teams weren't as impressive, but the Giants drop off our "worst special teams ever" list (barely) simply by virtue of not sucking in Week 11. Washington, on the other hand, is still terrible.

BEST OFFENSIVE DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 11 x WORST TOTAL DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 11 x WORST OFFENSIVE DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 11 x WORST SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA

THROUGH WEEK 11 Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA 2007 NE 51.5% x 1993 TB -62.0% x 2010 CAR -47.4% x 2010 SD -18.1% 1998 DEN 40.4% x 2005 SF -58.3% x 1992 SEA -46.7% x 2008 MIN -13.7% 1999 WAS 39.8% x 2013 JAC -57.1% x 2005 SF -46.2% x 2013 WAS -12.8% 2004 IND 38.6% x 2009 DET -53.6% x 2007 SF -43.8% x 1997 PHI -12.4% 2010 NE 36.3% x 2008 STL -52.3% x 2002 HOU -43.0% x 1995 PHI -12.1% 1993 SF 36.1% x 2000 CIN -50.0% x 2013 JAC -41.5% x 1997 STL -10.9% 2005 SD 35.4% x 2007 SF -48.6% x 1992 IND -37.8% x 2008 MIA -10.7% 2013 DEN 35.1% x 1991 IND -47.0% x 2004 MIA -36.9% x 2006 ARI -10.7% 1993 DAL 35.1% x 2010 CAR -46.6% x 2009 OAK -36.8% x 2007 CAR -10.6% 2012 NE 34.0% x 2008 DET -46.4% x 1997 NO -36.6% x 2007 IND -10.5% 2011 GB 33.6% x 1999 CLE -45.4% x 1993 TB -36.3% x 1996 NYJ -10.1% 2002 KC 33.5% x 2011 IND -45.4% x 2008 OAK -36.2% x 2004 STL -10.0%

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During the 2013 season, we'll be partnering with EA Sports to bring special Football Outsiders-branded items to Madden 25 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in standard stats. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats, including DYAR, Defeats, and our game charting coverage stats for cornerbacks. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend, beginning Friday night.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 11 are:

Joe Haden, CB, CLE (Limited Edition): Limited A.J. Green to two catches for seven yards; 2 INT, TD

(Limited Edition): Limited A.J. Green to two catches for seven yards; 2 INT, TD Joique Bell, RB, DET: Second among running backs with 46 DYAR

Second among running backs with 46 DYAR Shaun Phillips, DE, DEN: 2 PD, 2 TFL, four hurries, and a sack

2 PD, 2 TFL, four hurries, and a sack Michael Roos, LT, TEN: Mostly blocking Robert Mathis, allowed no sacks or hurries

Mostly blocking Robert Mathis, allowed no sacks or hurries Bobby Wagner, MLB, SEA: Eight Stops (defensive plays that prevent a successful yardage gain) including a sack and an interception

Other players we considered (not including players on Madden's "Team of the Week") included Marcell Dareus, Donnie Jones, Cam Newton, and J.J. Watt. There were also some big games from guys we've already honored as FO stars earlier this season, including Russell Okung and Charles Woodson.

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All 2013 stat pages are now updated or will be updated in the next few minutes, including snap counts, playoff odds, and the FO Premium database.

* * * * *

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 11 weeks of 2013, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

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OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 DEN 36.8% 1 35.4% 1 9-1 35.1% 1 1.8% 17 3.5% 9 2 SEA 36.2% 2 34.4% 2 10-1 11.2% 7 -17.3% 2 7.7% 1 3 CAR 26.2% 3 26.5% 3 7-3 10.4% 8 -14.5% 4 1.2% 15 4 NO 25.4% 4 26.2% 4 8-2 20.1% 3 -6.8% 10 -1.6% 22 5 CHI 18.3% 5 18.5% 5 6-4 11.6% 6 -3.3% 13 3.5% 10 6 NE 17.3% 7 18.4% 6 7-3 8.7% 11 -2.1% 14 6.5% 3 7 CIN 14.9% 9 15.0% 7 7-4 -4.8% 21 -15.4% 3 4.3% 8 8 SF 11.6% 6 14.5% 8 6-4 3.7% 14 -6.0% 11 1.9% 13 9 KC 11.3% 8 9.9% 10 9-1 -3.2% 18 -9.1% 6 5.4% 6 10 PHI 9.5% 15 10.7% 9 6-5 19.3% 5 8.4% 26 -1.3% 21 11 DAL 7.0% 11 6.5% 11 5-5 6.7% 12 7.0% 25 7.2% 2 12 GB 5.5% 13 4.1% 13 5-5 19.4% 4 12.1% 29 -1.8% 25 13 IND 4.4% 14 2.3% 15 7-3 9.9% 10 6.6% 24 1.0% 16 14 ARI 4.1% 12 6.0% 12 6-4 -11.7% 25 -17.6% 1 -1.8% 24 15 DET 3.2% 10 3.8% 14 6-4 10.3% 9 5.4% 22 -1.7% 23 16 SD -0.7% 17 -0.8% 17 4-6 21.0% 2 22.0% 32 0.2% 18 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 TB -0.7% 20 -0.5% 16 2-8 -4.1% 19 -3.4% 12 0.0% 19 18 PIT -2.0% 21 -1.8% 18 4-6 2.4% 15 6.3% 23 1.9% 14 19 BUF -3.0% 25 -3.9% 20 4-7 -7.4% 22 -8.9% 7 -4.6% 27 20 STL -4.6% 16 -2.6% 19 4-6 -11.0% 24 -0.9% 16 5.6% 5 21 MIA -5.2% 18 -6.0% 21 5-5 -4.2% 20 -0.9% 15 -1.8% 26 22 BAL -8.0% 23 -8.0% 22 4-6 -18.8% 29 -8.8% 8 2.0% 12 23 TEN -9.1% 27 -8.4% 23 4-6 -0.1% 17 2.1% 18 -6.8% 29 24 NYJ -10.3% 19 -12.4% 24 5-5 -25.9% 31 -10.0% 5 5.6% 4 25 ATL -12.0% 22 -15.0% 28 2-8 4.1% 13 14.9% 30 -1.2% 20 26 MIN -14.3% 24 -13.9% 26 2-8 -9.3% 23 9.8% 28 4.8% 7 27 NYG -15.5% 28 -12.8% 25 4-6 -13.7% 27 -8.1% 9 -9.9% 31 28 CLE -15.7% 26 -13.9% 27 4-6 -14.5% 28 2.2% 19 1.0% 17 29 WAS -21.4% 30 -20.3% 29 3-7 0.2% 16 8.8% 27 -12.8% 32 30 HOU -23.9% 29 -24.9% 30 2-8 -12.8% 26 2.8% 20 -8.3% 30 31 OAK -32.4% 31 -31.8% 31 4-6 -20.9% 30 4.8% 21 -6.6% 28 32 JAC -57.1% 32 -54.5% 32 1-9 -41.5% 32 19.0% 31 3.4% 11

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).