The plot is thickening in the dramatic Sudbury byelection, with the Liberals and NDP neck-and-neck but bleeding support to a surging independent candidate rejected by Premier Kathleen Wynne, a new poll suggests.

Support for businessman Andrew Olivier — who came within 1,000 votes of winning the riding for Wynne last June — has skyrocketed to as high as 22 per cent this week from just one per cent last week, according to the survey from Forum Research.

That makes Olivier, who is a quadriplegic, a “wild card” in the Feb. 5 vote, Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said Thursday.

The main factor in the surge appears to be Olivier’s release last week of audio tapes that he says prove his claim that Wynne’s deputy chief of staff and a local Liberal fundraiser offered him a post of some sort as a reward for stepping aside.

Wynne’s preferred choice was Sudbury New Democrat MP Glenn Thibeault, who was lured to the Liberal fold and quit his job in Parliament to be the premier’s hand-picked candidate to reclaim the riding from the NDP.

Ontario Provincial Police are examining the tapes, transcripts and other evidence as they decide whether to open a full criminal investigation. Elections Ontario has also launched a probe of what opposition parties dub a bribery scandal.

“When someone says they’ve got tapes, that’s a lot of smoke,” said Bozinoff. “There could be something to it so it’s a big unknown now. The Liberals have taken a hit.”

Wynne maintains no jobs were offered to Olivier, just “opportunities” for continued involvement in the party — which opposition parties say is spin.

New Democrat House leader Gilles Bisson called on Wynne “to ensure if any charges are laid . . . the Liberals will guarantee an independent, out-of-province prosecutor.”

Thibeault is at 33 per cent in the poll, down from 40 per cent last week, with NDP candidate Suzanne Shawbonquit at 30 per cent, a drop from 42 per cent.

The poll contacted 689 randomly selected Sudbury residents by telephone using interactive voice response on Wednesday. Forum said results are considered accurate within plus or minus four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“This is really close,” said Bozinoff. The two question marks are the NDP’s ground game and what happens with this police investigation.”

The winner will be the campaign with the best “ground game” or get-out-the-vote effort — something not reflected in polls, he added.

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The Liberals have been pouring resources into their campaign, with Wynne visiting Sudbury at least three times and headed up again Friday. A number of cabinet ministers have also made stops — as have NDP Leader Andrea Horwath and several of her MPPs in an effort to bolster Shawbonquit.

Nominations for the byelection closed Thursday, with 10 candidates running. Progressive Conservative Paula Peroni is in fourth place in the Forum poll with 11 per cent support trailed by the Green Party’s David Robinson at holding steady at 3 per cent.

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