President Barack Obama’s going all-in in Las Vegas.

There are the political bets: that Republicans aren’t going to do anything for two years and their failure to address immigration will be a political killer in the 2016 election, and that — despite warnings — he’ll still be able to pass other legislation through Congress in the next two years, despite the current fury.


There are the more personal ones: Obama believes changing deportation policy for 5 million immigrants will come across as a display of presidential energy rather than imperialism, and that he’ll prove ahead of his time rather than a grasping lame duck.

( Also on POLITICO: Obama to shield 5 million from deportation)

In many ways, the remainder of the Obama presidency is on the line — with a prime-time address, followed by a major speech in Las Vegas on such a politically and emotionally charged issue — this could define his relationship with Congress and the electorate for the next two years.

“Make no mistake. When the newly elected representatives of the people take their seats, they will act,” warned incoming Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Thursday.

For months, the president seemed to be treading water, appearing neither very enthusiastic himself or much interested in pumping up the enthusiasm of others. Even for Democrats, his allies in the House and the Senate were displaying a striking lack of unity.

“He needs to start doing sh— that’s going to energize our base,” one Democratic strategist complained after the midterms. “And these members need to pull their heads out of their asses. We already own the bad, so let’s get something for all of the good.”

( POLITICO Magazine: Obama Is Not a Monarch)

White House aides constantly roll their eyes at that kind of Democratic griping. This time, they’re listening to it. When they’re down in the polls and public perception, Obama and his aides believe, it’s because Democrats have left them — and Democrats have certainly left them now. As significant a piece of policy as the immigration changes are for the West Wing, aides are also very well aware that this is a base play that’ll light up Latinos and other immigrants, but also a wider group of progressives and labor allies who’ve prioritized immigration for years.

The executive actions, said Service Employees International Union president Mary Kay Henry, are a “life-changing event for millions of people,” but they also feel like Obama beginning to deliver on the promise of more: “My sense is that the president is committed to acting in every way he can, especially with a Congress that has not acted,” she said. “There’s lots more to do in the next two years to improve the lives of working people.”

Plus, Obama has the added benefit of trolling Republicans into government shutdown and impeachment talk. While impeachment isn’t much on their minds in the White House, the prospect of another shutdown is a real cause for concern, aides say. They know Republicans might harpoon a continuing resolution before the end of the year, or maybe hit them again in the spring. Or both. Last fall’s shutdown hurt the GOP politically — at least until the Obamacare website launch. But the political pressure has switched importantly: then it was House Republicans who wouldn’t agree to a vote; after January, it would be Obama vetoing a budget passed by both the House and Senate, trying to explain that he was forcing a shutdown to preserve his executive authority.

The White House is already having enough trouble selling people on the idea that things were brought to a head by Congress refusing to act, instead of Obama insisting on acting.

( Also on POLITICO: White House targets immigration rollout at Latino viewers)

“Unfortunately Washington has allowed the problem to fester for too long,” Obama said in a short Oval Office video that the White House put on Facebook Wednesday morning,

Wednesday afternoon, White House press secretary Josh Earnest joined in, urging reporters to see the irony between a president who continues to talk with Republicans despite four dozen votes to repeal Obamacare and Republicans who say they’ll stop talking to the president because of the immigration executive actions.

This is, after all, a president and aides who tend to thrive with the focus of a fight.

“We’re all better when we’re doing something,” said one person familiar with White House thinking. “It’s when we’re not, that we’re twisting.”

But even as the multiday rollout continues, inside the West Wing, they’re still not sure how the executive actions will play politically. There was internal debate at the time over how the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program would play out when Obama announced it in the spring of 2012 as he was running for reelection, and a similar debate has been going on in recent weeks again. Aides are confident that they’re right and legally solid, but that won’t necessarily be enough for such an emotionally charged issue.

( Also on POLITICO: Why Obama limited immigration scope of action)

With just 38 percent approving of executive action on immigration, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted in the days leading up to the announcement — and only 43 percent approval among Latinos — the reasons for that worry are pretty clear.

In an interview Wednesday on the sidelines of the Republican Governors Association conference in Boca Raton, Florida, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence called moving forward unilaterally “a profound mistake” that ignores both the law and the message of the midterms.

“The American people sent a deafening message to Washington, D.C., that they want a change on Capitol Hill,” Pence said. “I think the president has an opportunity now to work with the Congress after it convenes in January and to find a piece-by-piece approach dealing with the issue of immigration reform.”

Wednesday afternoon, in a daily briefing that was entirely consumed by discussion of immigration reform, Earnest had his answers ready to go.

( Also on POLITICO: Jim Webb launches 2016 committee)

“We know that these steps are going to strengthen national security, they’re going to strengthen the border, they are going to strengthen our economy, and they will do something to address a lingering problem,” Earnest said.

On the warnings from House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) or Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) that Obama would ruin immigration reform’s chances in Congress: “I think what’s ruining the chance for congressional action is the speaker of the House,” Earnest said.

Whether Democrats should be worried about political consequences: “The short answer to your question is no.”

And then, in a line Earnest offered many, many times over the hour he spent in front of reporters, he dismissed the idea that this would mean the end of some utopian era of cooperation with the Republican majority: “We should not allow disagreement over this issue to be a deal-breaker for many others.”

Jake Sherman contributed reporting from Boca Raton, Florida.