One of the biggest political questions in Texas this year was how the so-called blue wave that seemed to be surging across the country since the election of President Donald Trump would fare in the Lone Star State. Would it crash on the red seawall, as Gov. Greg Abbott had predicted, or would it lead to overwhelming change in our politics?

If the first week of early voting is any indication, that blue wave is clearly surging and building strength, possibly setting up the most interesting midterm election our state has had since 1990.

Don’t believe me? Look at the numbers.

Through the first week of early voting, Democrats have had record turnout in every major county in the state, with most counties equaling or exceeding turnouts levels seen only during presidential election years.

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In Harris County, the Democratic turnout has been nothing short of remarkable. In 2014, 8,399 Democrats turned out during the first six days of early voting. In the heavily contested 2016 Democratic Primary that featured Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, 23,361 turned out. This election has seen just under 25,000 voters — an unprecedented record for Texas Democrats.

Texas Republicans have for the most part voted at their expected midterm levels. In Harris County, the GOP exceeded its 2014 level of 19,249 voters, with over 22,200 voters already casting votes. Statewide, they are on pace to exceed their 2014 early vote levels. Texas GOP voters have shown up to the polls — but their totals simply can’t match Democrats.

The consequences of this disparity probably won’t end with the primary election on March 6. Based on previous elections, we know that increased Democratic participation in the primaries means greater Democratic turnout in the general election. The same isn’t true for Republican voters, who have a record of steady turnout regardless of primary participation.

So where is this Democratic wave coming from?

Surges in early voting can usually be attributed to interest among heavily partisan voters, but the turnout this cycle points to an interesting trend. More than half the voters who have cast ballots in the Democratic primary in Harris County have little to no history of voting in other Democratic primaries. That’s not to say these voters are new to the process. Rather, they’re just voters who skip the primary and turn out in the general election.

More than 70 percent of people who cast ballots in the primary have voted in the last three general elections, with 97 percent having voted in at least one of the last three general elections. It is unclear whether these are independents, disaffected Republicans voting in the Democratic primary or merely Democratic-leaning voters, but their impact this cycle looks to be significant.

Beyond voter turnout, there has also been a spike in other indicators of high Democratic voter intensity. One of the best gauges of that metric is the number of requests for mail ballots, which are often a sign of organizational strength and a heightened desire to vote. Mail ballots are available for senior citizens and voters who are out of the county during election season.

Democrats in 2014 had 12,722 requested mail ballots — in 2018 they had more than 31,000. The GOP in 2014 had 24,548 — in 2018 they had 29,586 and counting. For Republicans, these numbers are comparable to a presidential cycle. For Democrats, these numbers are simply off the charts. Credit here probably falls with Harris County Democratic Party Chair Lillie Schechter, whose focus on mail ballots has created a result without any precedent in contemporary Houston politics.

What makes the turnout even more remarkable is the lack of heavily contested statewide races. While the Democratic gubernatorial contest has elicited some interest, it has largely been a low-key affair with little money spent. Every other statewide race on the Democratic side has been generally uneventful. Similarly, with the exception of races for land commissioner and agriculture commissioner, there is little focus on statewide Republican races.

Instead, the big driver this cycle has been the record number of congressional races and, of course, the massive shadow of Trump.

With open seats in congressional districts across the state — including races in every major metropolitan city — congressional contests have been the primary drivers for turnout. In Harris County alone, three congressional races have drawn myriad candidates. The Democratic primary for the 7th Congressional District, currently held by Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. John Culberson, has elicited the most attention.

Beyond that, however, the real driver appears to be the increased polarization of the electorate as it relates to Trump. Traditionally, the party out of the White House gains seats in midterms. Republicans saw tremendous gains in Texas in both 2010 and 2014 during President Barack Obama’s two terms. During this cycle, the interest in early voting by Democrats seems to indicate a similar pattern — but the question is to what extent.

This year’s early vote and projected primary turnouts seem to point to a much closer and heavily contested general election than many would have thought just months ago. Will it be enough to transform Texas into a two-party state? Only time will tell. For now, we are increasingly looking at unpredictable election season.