I many years ago I wrote a piece about why I didn’t think Craig was Satoshi, and a bunch of reporters hit me up immediately for interviews. I didn’t give any, and I deleted the post.

I think they were so interested because they had tracked down my interactions with him (not about bitcoin) from back in the day, which validated that I at least knew him to some degree.

Anyway, the gist of the piece that I removed was that—in my mind—the Craig I knew could not have been Satoshi for a very simple reason: Craig seeks attention, while Satoshi shunned it.

I’d guess that tens of thousands of people are smart enough to have invented bitcoin.

To be clear, in my few interactions with Craig he’s always been polite and decent. And I think he’s definitely brilliant enough to do the work. I could absolutely be wrong about this. He could actually be him.

Craig seems more like the brilliant quarterback, while Satoshi would be the loner in the corner.

I just don’t think so. Everything I understand about humans tells me it’s a hard no. Here are some inputs that brought me to that analysis.

Craig talked about himself constantly

Craig constantly sought attention

Craig loved to publicly debate with people

Craig loved to boast about his accomplishments

It looks like he talked about degrees he didn’t yet have

He’d do things like post photos of him working out on a rower

We was good looking and liked to show it off

I’m not a Satoshi expert, so I could be wrong about some of these.

In short, he was more like a brilliant cult leader. Where I see Satoshi as more like the following:

Brilliant

Introverted

Wants to do good in the world

Does not want a single bit of the credit

Would rather remain anonymous if possible

Would happily die with nobody knowing it was him

Those don’t seem like the same two people.

So, no—I don’t have cryptographic evidence that Satoshi is someone else, or that Craig isn’t him. But everything I know about humans—and particularly male egos—tells me that Craig is almost the exact opposite of the real Satoshi.

If Craig really is perpetrating a con here, I wish he’d stop. And if he’s really Satoshi and I’m wrong, well, I hope he forgives me this analysis.

But I’d give that a 3% chance, if that.

TL;DR: Satoshi wouldn’t upload pictures of himself wearing spandex on a rowing machine.

Notes