Article content continued

“A budgetary surplus could be achieved in 2014-15… if revenues rebound at a higher rate than expected, or if departments underspend at the same rate as fiscal 2009-10 to 2012-13,” the PBO says.

Many economists agree that Mr. Flaherty, who died shortly after resigning in March, had arguably already taken the government’s books out of a deficit, but was holding off declaring victory until the declared balanced target of 2015-15.

“Jim Flaherty didn’t live to see it, but unless economic growth seriously disappoints, his last budget [in February] delivered the surplus he was seeking as his political epitaph,” said Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets.

The quicker pace of deficit reduction was evident last week in a Finance Department report that showed the most recent tally, for 11 months of this fiscal year, put the shortfall at just $5.4-billion. However, economists say the final months of any fiscal year can be volatile due largely to end-of-year expenses, such as tax refunds.

On Wednesday, Statistics Canada will provide an update on the economy, releasing February output numbers that could show steady, if not stellar, growth.

The forecast is for a 0.2% increase in growth for the month, following “a see-saw pattern in December and January, where GDP first fell 0.5% — due to the ice storm — but then rebounded 0.5%,” BMO Capital Markets said in a note to investors.

Meanwhile on Tuesday, the PBO report will officially be presented to the House of Parliament finance committee by the PBO’s Mr. Frechette, along with his assistant Mostafa Askari and authors of the document.

Their appearance is scheduled for 4:30 pm ET, one hour after Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz and senior deputy government Tiff Macklem go before the finance committee for one of their semi-regular appearance.