This is part of a series on The CrossFit Games 2016 Open Workouts. For more, checkout: 16.2 Final Analysis, and 16.1 Final Analysis.

It’s only Friday night, but there have already been a few thousand BTWB users who have posted their 16.1 scores (thanks everyone!). Dave Castro has given us a brutal workout to kick things off this year. Overhead Walking Lunges, Bar Facing Burpees, and C2B Pull-ups are a spicy combination. Good luck, and try not to focus on the suffering of the people who go before you.

As we mentioned before, if you’re hoping to qualify for Regionals, you need to really try to be in the top 1% on each workout. Being in the top 2% may not be good enough. That means men need to get at least to the burpees on the 11th round, and women need to get at least a few reps of burpees in the 10th round. That’s easier said than done, but that’s what it’s going to take to ensure a spot at Regionals.

For the rest of us mortals, you can see the full score distribution below, with some common percentiles on the right.

CrossFit Games Open 16.1 (Preliminary Data)

How hard is it to make Regionals?

While we were analyzing the numbers we started to wonder how hard is it to make Regionals. It turns out that there is no room for mis-steps. With less spots available at Regionals than in years past, there is even less margin for error on any workout. One less-than-stellar result and your chances could be over. If you score in the 99th percentile on every open workout, you will make Regionals. If you score in the 98th percentile on every open workout, you probably won’t. Yup, that close.

If you score in the 99th percentile on every open workout, you will make Regionals. If you score in the 98th percentile on every open workout, you probably won’t.

To illustrate this in action, let’s take a look at two Athletes from the California Regional in 2015. Nick Robles and Elyse Persico (pictured above, right and center). Finishing the Open in 17th place in the SoCal Region, Nick qualified for the California Super Regional. But Elyse Persico (who wanted us to mention she was battling a wrist injury) finished the Open in 24th place, barely missing qualifying as an individual in SoCal. That’s how close the stakes are at this point. This happened on 15.4 for Elyse, and she wasn’t able to do well enough on 15.5 to make up for it.

A lot of impressive athletes will not be going to Regionals this year. It’s just that competitive now. Exciting and heart breaking at the same time, but that’s the reality of sports. However, we should take a moment and point out how insanely fit the top 5% are.

You’re still a Dragon.

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