He may be fuming about grammar schools and other policy shifts but David Cameron has, in public at least, remained studiously loyal to Theresa May. The same, however, cannot be said for the former prime minister’s local newsagent in the Oxfordshire village of Chadlington.

“She’s come in and she’s doing things that weren’t in the manifesto,” says Martin Chapman, owner of Cafe de la Poste. “Straight away it’s grammar schools – which I thought was a bit odd. Then there were those lists of foreign workers. It’s all too rightwing for me. It’s not what we asked for.”

Chapman voted Tory at the last general election but before last Thursday’s byelection to find Cameron’s successor, he stuck up a poster of the Liberal Democrat candidate Liz Leffman, and duly voted for her. “Most people aren’t as far left as Corbyn and his lot. They aren’t as far right as the Brexiters. They’re somewhere in the middle, aren’t they?”

A few miles up the road in Witney, Brexit is also a big issue. Harley Greenham works on the bar at the Blue Boar, a gastropub, where Cameron is an occasional visitor. “I used to vote Conservative because I liked Cameron and wanted a say on Europe. But the government is making rash decisions on Brexit. The Lib Dems are talking about doing everything more smoothly – I do want to see change, but I don’t want us to leave by force. I think it should be nice and easy.”

The Tories held Witney comfortably with Brexit-backing barrister Robert Courts taking 45% of the vote. But his tally was way down on the 60% Cameron secured in May last year.

Much more remarkable was a Liberal Democrat surge, which saw it leapfrog Labour and Ukip into second place with 11,611 votes, just 5,702 behind the Tories in one of their safest seats. It was the Lib Dems’ biggest byelection swing in 26 years. Jubilant party leader Tim Farron said the Lib Dems were “back”.

On Sunday he set his sights on the next target – Richmond Park, where Tory MP Zac Goldsmith has said he will step down if May decides to expand Heathrow airport. “Our message about a Britain that is open, tolerant and united struck a chord in Witney,” Farron said. “We are now going to make sure the Conservatives remember their ‘no ifs, no buts’ pledge not to build a third runway at Heathrow.”

Money well spent in Witney as Lib Dems celebrate a swing Read more

The Lib Dems poured resources into Witney, as they often do in byelections. They believe Brexit, Labour’s divisions and its move leftwards, as well as the chaos engulfing Ukip, all offer them hope. They want to be the party of the 48% of Remain voters who lost on 23 June. “Witney allowed us to road test our message that unlike the other parties we are open, tolerant and united, and it worked,” said a party official.

No one is pretending there is anything less than a mountain to climb. An Opinium/Observer poll puts the Lib Dems on just 6% of the vote nationally, close to their worst ever showing. The Tories are on 39%, Labour 30% and Ukip 13%. The poll also shows Farron, who succeeded Nick Clegg as leader last year, has failed to impress, or probably even register, with much of the electorate. Just 2% say they “strongly” approve of his leadership, while 11% say they “somewhat” approve. Some 55% have no view either way and a total of 33% disapprove either strongly or somewhat with his stewardship.

By contrast 46% of voters approve of the way May has performed in her first 100 days against just 24% who disapprove. Jeremy Corbyn lags way behind May, with only 22% of voters approving of the way he is leading Labour against 50% who disapprove. More than twice as many voters believe May will handle the economy better and conduct Brexit negotiations more effectively than Corbyn.

A Lib Dem campaigner, Dawn Glatz, said that as well as Brexit the main worries for Tory voters in Witney were NHS cuts and local issues such as bus provision in the constituency, which had been slashed to a bare minimum.

The Lib Dems had 56 MPs in the last parliament and now have eight. However, some Tories are turning to them and so could some Labour voters.

In Witney on Friday, accountant George Greenall and his wife Sue said Brexit had turned them off the Tories. “We changed our minds, mainly, because of this Brexit situation. It’s really not coming over very well. I don’t like Labour, I can’t vote for Corbyn – and I really don’t like what Theresa May is doing on Brexit,” said Greenall.