College football's big day—national signing day—came and went Wednesday with the usual slobbering over the top-rated recruits. But those largely aren't the players who go on to get drafted by the NFL.

The majority of NFL draft picks aren't four- and five-star prospects. Over the past five years, 69% of all NFL draftees received a three-star rating or lower coming out of high school from Rivals, a recruiting website. Elite prospects dominate the first round—roughly 60% of first-round picks over this span were former four- and five-star recruits—but from then on, modest recruits are in the majority.

This isn't to suggest that the recruiting services are getting it wrong. Rather, this dynamic is a function of how large a pool the three-star-and-below players are. There are typically only around 30 five-star prospects per year and 300 to 400 four-star ones, compared to 1,000-plus three-star recruits and at least as many lesser ones. In other words, the top recruits face a ton of competition.

So even though lower-rated recruits got little attention Wednesday, chances are many of them will go on to great careers. Last year there was a pair of former two-star recruits selected in the draft's first round: Wisconsin's J.J. Watt (pictured) and Boston College's Anthony Castonzo. In addition, defensive back Devin McCourty, who will play for the New England Patriots in Sunday's Super Bowl, was once a two-star.