This weekend the final film in the current Star Wars saga is expected to challenge box office records as it goes head to head in the UK with Cats, the adaptation of Andrew Lloyd-Webber’s long-running feline musical.

In the US, analysts have predicted that Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker could break the previews record of $61m (£46m) set in 2015 by The Force Awakens, which was Disney’s first Star Wars film since it bought Lucasfilm in 2013 for $4bn.

On Wednesday, the first reviews of the new Star Wars film were mixed, with critics saying the film struggled to combine crowd-pleasing moments that appeased hardcore fans with a narrative that was sustained for its 2hr 20min running time.

The Guardian’s Steve Rose gave the film three stars and said it was “the send-off the saga deserves”, but complained about the fact there was so much plotting and exposition that “it feels like two movies condensed into one at times”. Vanity Fair’s Richard Lawson said it was “too determinedly on its sweaty course, heedless of actual audience interest in its tunnel-visioned quest to be broadly loved”.

Forbes’ Scott Mendelson wrote that the mixed reviews could dent its initial taking across the opening weekend but he said it could have “potentially longer legs” than either of the previous two Disney Star Wars films because it is a much-hyped finale, which even casual fans will want to see.

The Rise of Skywalker is unlikely to out-perform another Disney film, Avengers: End Game, which demolished box office records when it was released earlier this year, on its way to taking $2.7bn (£2.1bn) worldwide. The box office performance of The Rise of Skywalker will be heavily scrutinised after the previous film in the trilogy, The Last Jedi ($1.3bn), took 33% less at the US box office than The Force Awakens.

The relative under-performance of Rian Johnson’s film opened up a debate about the Star Wars franchise and its fans. The failure was partly blamed on its move away from established Star Wars lore, with some accusing him of such discretions as suggesting main character Rey’s lineage did not matter, and ignoring the “force sensitivity” of John Boyega’s character, Finn.

Disney’s own internal handling of the franchise has also been criticised. JJ Abrams, who directed The Force Awakens, was brought in to replace the Jurassic World director Colin Trevorrow on The Rise of Skywalker. That came after Disney had already replaced Phil Lord and Chris Miller on its spin-off project Solo, again choosing a more established director (Ron Howard) as a replacement. Solo went on to have the worst performance of any Star Wars film, with a worldwide box office of $392m.

The Rise of Skywalker will also be competing with Cats, an adaptation of Andrew Lloyd-Webber’s musical, which became an internet sensation earlier this year when its trailer was released in July. Its visual effects and bizarre styling choices sent the trailer viral, but since then significant changes have been made, according to the actor Tom Hooper, who said the reaction gave the team “some clues in how to keep evolving”.

The initial reactions to the film starring Dame Judi Dench, Jason Derulo and Jennifer Hudson have been more positive, but reviews are embargoed until midnight on Wednesday. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is out on Thursday, while Cats is released in the UK on Friday 20 December.