Even the Five Star Movement is committed to EU membership in a country where Brexit is widely seen as a mistake

Italians have looked aghast at the outcome of the Brexit vote, shocked by the rapid fall of political leaders in a nation previously admired for stability and common sense.

Dire economic performance in the bel paese (beautiful country) has seen hundreds of thousands of Italians move to the UK, which was until recently held up as an example of how a nation should be run.

But in the post-referendum era, Brits in Italy receive sympathetic looks as concerned locals seek to understand how UK voters could have made such a drastic choice. “It’s a mistake for them,” says Luca Miccinilli, a shop worker in central Rome. “Maybe they never really felt European.”

His sentiment is echoed at a nearby coffee bar, where Brexit is described variously as a disaster, an erroneous choice, an irrational decision. “I think it was a mistake, Europe’s already in difficulty,” remarks Simona Barnocchi at the counter. “They had less difficulty than us, because they had their own bank. Our economy isn’t going well,” she remarks as euros are dropped into the till.

Italy was one of the EU’s founding members and the union’s flag flutters atop state buildings nationwide. But Brussels is certainly not viewed with great affection. The failure of Europe to respond adequately to refugees and migrants arriving on Italian shores, coupled with constant negotiations over the country’s finances, has led to a sense of bitterness among many Italians.

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But the suggestion Italy might follow in the UK’s footsteps is broadly viewed as preposterous, with a post-Brexit poll finding that two thirds of Italians would vote to remain in the event of a referendum.

The outcome of the British vote was celebrated by the leader of the far-right Northern League, Matteo Salvini, who called for Italy to hold its own vote. But his party has lost support in recent weeks, with one poll showing just 12.4% of voters would back it.

The more significant rise has been that of the Eurosceptic Five Star Movement (M5S), an anti-establishment party founded by comedian Beppe Grillo. The M5S won a quarter of the national vote in 2013 and last month clinched the mayoral seats in Rome and Turin. Polls now show it has 30.6% of the vote, above the ruling Democratic party’s 29.8%.

Luigi Di Maio, the deputy speaker of the Italian parliament, has emerged as the most likely figure to lead the M5S at the next general election. He is critical of Brussels, but says the EU has become a scapegoat. “It was very often used by Italian politics as an alibi, it’s not guilty of everything it has been blamed for,” he told the Guardian.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Luigi Di Maio, who is likely to lead the M5S into the next general election Photograph: Giorgio Cosulich/Getty Images

But he still saw failings. “It’s an EU which has decided to abdicate from its role of protecting the internal market and protecting its citizens,” he said.

Despite its Euroscepticism, the M5S is committed to EU membership, although it has called for a national referendum on the euro. “A referendum which asks citizens if they want to remain in the euro, if they want to go in another direction, renegotiate the euro, or return to the lira,” says Di Maio.

Such a vote would not be legally binding and the Italian government has not backed the idea. While Italians often complain that joining the single currency made them poorer, others are wary of the financial impact of returning to the lira.

Marco Bertolini, an architect in Rome, counts out snacks at the coffee bar to demonstrate the economics of switching currencies. “For those who understand finance, if the lira were to come back, we would pay double,” he says. “It’s not convincing, it’s not right.”

Although the Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, does not have an EU vote to worry about, he has put his career on the line by calling a different referendum in October. Italians are being asked to give the green light to the premier’s package of reforms, an attempt to streamline the political system, which are opposed by the M5S.

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Renzi has promised to resign if he loses this autumn and early elections could follow. Arianna Montanari, a professor at Rome’s La Sapienza University, is however cautious of predicting that the M5S will soon govern Italy, believing a temporary government could be installed without a public vote if Renzi did stand down.

“It also depends on how Rome works; it seems like it’s not going so well,” she said of Rome’s new M5S mayor, Virginia Raggi, whose unenviable to-do list includes getting basic services such as rubbish collection to function properly.

An M5S government led by the young Di Maio, who turned 30 this month, would be a remarkable transformation of Italian politics. But the de-facto party leader is adamant that a vote for the M5S would not lead to a break with the EU: “In the throngs of Brexit, some have begun to speak of ‘Italexit’. But no one talked about this before.”

Di Maio is instead optimistic that Brexit could benefit Italy, suggesting it could attract businesses leaving London and looking for a new European hub. “Italy could have a kind of recruitment drive, with taxation that allows companies that are there and want to come to Italy and contribute to the economic development of this country,” he says.

Milan, Italy’s financial capital, is best positioned to benefit from such a situation. “Milan has a number of advantages. The fact is that for the family of a banker in London, moving to Frankfurt would not be exciting,” said Francesco Giavazzi, a professor at Bocconi University in Milan. But he notes Brexit could see Italian imports to the UK fall, as they become more expensive, and so Italy does not stand to gain hugely in financial terms.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Some hope that Milan, Italy’s financial capital, may benefit from the Brexit vote by luring financial firms from London. Photograph: MARKA/Alamy

The ongoing fallout from the UK referendum will continue to spark intense debate about Italy’s own relationship with Europe. So far, despite constant criticism of the EU’s monetary policy, a strong sense of European identity is outweighing any will to leave the union.

“I think that the original project was the right one. A political union and a sense of community. We must return to the European community,” says Di Maio.