A crowd gathers in the spin room during CNN's GOP debate in September. | AP Photo CNN expects ‘significantly smaller’ ratings for Dem debate

The Republican and Democratic fields are like night and day, and no event will make that more apparent than Tuesday’s first Democratic debate in Las Vegas, hosted by CNN and Facebook.

With only five candidates, just two of whom are registering above single digits in the polls, very few people expect that the ratings or impact on the race will be as dramatic as what the race saw from Cleveland and Simi Valley on the Republican side.


A ratings success for CNN will look nothing like the 23 million viewers the network saw at the second GOP debate, or the 24 million viewers from the first GOP debate hosted by Fox News.

"Viewership for the first two GOP debates was an anomaly in a highly unusual Republican nomination cycle. While I won't predict ratings for this debate, we expect the audience to be significantly smaller,” said CNN Washington Bureau Chief Sam Feist.

The 2008 cycle saw some high numbers for the Democratic debates, drawn by the head-to-head match-up of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, both of whom had a chance to make history as either the first female or African-American president. The most watched Democratic debates of the 2008 cycle came late in the season. On Jan. 31, 2008, the Democratic debate hosted by CNN, brought in 8.3 million viewers. The second-most watched debate of the 2008 cycle was hosted by MSNBC on Feb. 26, and brought in 7.77 million viewers.

For comparison’s sake with Tuesday’s debate, the October debate of the 2008 cycle, hosted by MSNBC, brought in just 2.45 million viewers.

Another element to contend with: Baseball. The New York Mets will play the Los Angeles Dodgers and the St. Louis Cardinals will play the Chicago Cubs in playoff games. The first two GOP debates did not have major sports to compete with.

“Apart from the minor complications of the start of the fall TV season and the baseball playoffs, for the most part the difference between the size of the ratings for the two CNN debates — Democratic vs Republican — will be a quantification of the Trump Effect. How much has Donald Trump's presence increased interest in Campaign 2016 beyond the traditional political hardcore?” said Andrew Tyndall, television analyst and author of the Tyndall Report.

Tyndall argued that the Republican debate had such astronomically high viewership because it attracted Democrats, Republicans and the apolitical who tuned in because "politics aside, it had elements of a reality TV elimination contest."

And, while there’s a good chance the three lesser-known candidates — Martin O’Malley, Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee — may engage in some antics to get more face time, Tyndall said he’s not expecting it to draw in any new viewers.

"The Democratic debate holds little interest for Republican-leaning viewers, except for the novelty of a genuine socialist on the national stage. It holds little interest for reality TV viewers, since it promises little ad hominem drama and few prospects of outrageous behavior. Therefore both elements of the Trump Effect will be absent,” Tyndall wrote. "When Donald claims credit, as I am certain he will, for the difference in the two sets of ratings, he will be entitled to do so."

Former DNC spokesperson Mo Elleithee agreed, noting that he doubts many of the people who watched the GOP debates will actually vote in a primary.

"Total number of viewers is important, but even more important from [the DNC’s] perspective is the percentage of viewers who go on to vote in a Democratic primary,” said Elleithee, who is now executive director of the Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service. "From the party's perspective, these debates are organizing tools. You want them to create excitement among Democrats to get involved."

CNN is employing some tactics to help boost ratings. Singer Sheryl Crow will perform the national anthem. The network has also left the door open for Vice President Joe Biden to be on stage, even if he chooses to declare the same day (CNN hosts have been tweeting photos of the extra lectern for Biden — just in case.) The moderator will be Anderson Cooper in place of political junkie Jake Tapper, who was brought into the second GOP debate to help control and direct the three-hour, 11-person marathon.

Anchor Don Lemon, who draws good ratings on his “CNN Tonight” show and is known for his unpredictability, will be asking questions along with CNN Chief Political Correspondent Dana Bash and CNN Español anchor Juan Carlos Lopez.

