CLEVELAND, Ohio - The Browns haven't failed picking quarterbacks. They've failed because they haven't really tried to pick a quarterback.

Now that they're going to draft a quarterback in the top 10 for the first time since snagging Tim Couch to open the 1999 NFL Draft, what if it turns out that the Browns can't go wrong?

What if every quarterback option at the top of this draft is a winner?

As ESPN's Adam Schefter pointed out, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen and Baker Mayfield as a draft class are viewed by Scouts Inc., which grades prospects for ESPN, as the best QB crop since 2004.

Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen and Baker Mayfield all have grades of at least 90 on Scouts Inc., the first time in 15 years that four QBs in same Draft grade that high:



Scouts Inc. QB Grades, 2018

Darnold, USC 94

Allen, WYO 92

Rosen, UCLA 92

Mayfield, OKLA 91 — Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 5, 2018

The last time it happened, in 2004, three teams wound up very happy. Three future Hall of Fame quarterbacks went in the top 11 picks, with Eli Manning landing with the New York Giants, San Diego winding up with Philip Rivers after drafting No. 4 and Pittsburgh getting Ben Roethlisberger at No. 11. The only teams regretting that day are the ones, like the Browns, who didn't pick a quarterback high.

This could be 2004.

We're at the nit-picking stage of the process, where Darnold fumbles too much, Mayfield is too short, Rosen is too smart and Allen is too raw and innacurate. But whatever three quarterbacks the Browns don't draft, other teams will be scrambling for.

Allen (in a trade up) or Darnold (to the New York Giants) could go No. 2 if they aren't the Browns choice. Mayfield seems like a strong bet to the Jets at No. 3. People wonder if the Patriots are lurking to make a move to get Rosen if he falls out of the top five.

* PODCAST: Wrapping your head around Allen at No. 1

You can find multiple analysts who make cases for Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield as the best quarterback in this draft. And Allen has been at the top of Mel Kiper's draft board, and the object of whispers around John Dorsey, for weeks. You also don't have to look far to find those who believe Lamar Jackson, not often considered in the top five but a sure first-rounder, will be as successful as any of them.

Allen is the most difficult prospect to accept as the Browns choice. But while there are reasons to fear a raw big-armed quarterback with accuracy issues who played at a lower level of competition, the Browns aren't the only team with Allen interest.

And quarterback whiffs at No. 1 aren't the norm. Allen would be a reach, no doubt. But he's not a sure bust.

This high in the draft, teams often get it right with quarterbacks. The Browns just haven't been one of them to take a shot.

In the 19 drafts since the Browns took Couch in 1999, 27 quarterbacks have been drafted in the top 10, by 21 different teams. The Browns are one of 11 franchises who haven't tried, and teams like the Patriots, Saints, Packers, Cowboys and Seahawks haven't because they found their quarterbacks in other ways.

Twelve quarterbacks in that time went No. 1, and only two, JaMarcus Russell with the Raiders and David Carr with the Texans, were busts. Nine others - Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Manning, Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston and Jared Goff - found varying degrees of success with their teams. The other, Sam Bradford, was derailed by injuries before he could be anything more than OK with the Rams.

And that's just at No. 1. From Matt Ryan to Carson Wentz, from Marus Mariota to Rivers, you'll find other QBs who could have gone first and who worked out.

If you think the Browns are going to blow this quarterback selection because they're the Browns, you're looking at the wrong context. The Browns have blown picks on quarterbacks selected in the 20s.

You should be assuming the Browns are going to get this right because quarterbacks picked No. 1 often make it. That's the context in play here.

Of course, each team drafting a quarterback No. 1 owns the responsbility of developing him and surrounding him with talent. In that regard, it's fair to question the Browns. But bad teams have done it before. And there's more talent here now than there was for Couch with an expansion team 19 years ago.

The consternation around the pick arises because there are too many good quarterback options. In another year, Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield or Allen could stand alone as the obvious top choice. Carolina had an easy choise with Newton in 2011, for instance, because he was so far above any other quarterback.

Don't allow yourself to panic over the bounty. The Browns may have taken Goff at No. 2 in 2016, and not traded the pick, if they thought he'd be there. They may have taken Patrick Mahomes at No. 12 last year if he hadn't been snatched by Kansas City at No. 10. But they were also angling for this QB draft for a while. Most in the NFL saw this group coming.

They're here. With the Browns in control.

The abundance of QB options may even help the Browns at No. 4, if they choose to auction off that pick and trade it to another team seeking one of the quarterbacks.

The idea of the Browns bypassing the other quarterbacks to take Allen admittedly gives me a knot in my stomach. But if that's their evaluation of him, they won't be alone. The NFL often blows it on quarterbacks. But just as often, the league gets it right.

In these final days before the draft, don't assume the worst because you're viewing this quarterback opportunity the wrong way. Maybe assume the Browns will get it right because there's no way to get it wrong.