The Washington Wizards have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this year. Led by the dynamic backcourt duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal, the Wizards nearly made a Conference Finals cameo in 2015, falling just short of upsetting the top seeded Atlanta Hawks in the postseason. Despite losing clutch performer Paul Pierce to free agency, the Wizards seemed poised to finally break through an advance to the ECF after back-to-back second round exits. Instead, Washington has been derailed by injuries and inconsistency, and they currently sit three games under .500 with just five games to play before the All Star Break.

Washington is in a particularly interesting position this year due to the fact that Oklahoma City Thunder star forward Kevin Durant is set to hit free agency following the conclusion of the 2016 campaign. The Wizards have long been enamored with the D.C. Native, even intentionally signing veterans to deals expiring after the 2015 season to clear cap space. Washington is universally expected to pursue the former MVP this offseason, and many feel that the Durant decision will be among the biggest moments in modern Wizards history. However, the “KD2DC” movement has waned in recent months, as the Wizards have struggled, making them a less attractive destination for Durant. With their playoff hopes hanging by a thread, and their next game coming against the powerhouse Golden State Warriors, Washington appears to nearing a fork in the road as the All Star Break nears.

Assuming the ‘Zards are unable to pull out upsets against the Warriors and Thunder, they will sit at 21-26, four games out of the postseason with four to play against the break. They will play the Hornets, Knicks, and Bucks on the road before returning to the Verizon Center to take on the Pistons. Of those four teams only one, Detroit, is currently in playoff position. Despite three of the four games coming away from home, this is a manageable stretch for Washington. They will likely need to go at least 3-1 during that stretch, and anything less than 2-2 will cause their season to split at the seams, effectively ending any playoff hopes.

The final four game stretch before the break is not only crucial to the ending of Washington’s 2016 season; it will likely play a large role in determining their future as well. The Wizards basically have three options on how to approach the rest of the year. They can tank the season, sitting key players for extended stretches in an attempt to secure a high draft pick, they can trade for a big name player to bolster a playoff run, or they could stand pat and hope the team turns it around with the roster in place while maintaining their favorable 2016 salary cap position. Let’s break down all three options in depth.

Option 1: Tank

This Could Happen If:

The Wizards slump, losing three or four of their remaining games and go into the All Star Break several games out of the postseason and not within striking distance of .500.

Why Tanking is a Good Move:

The Wizards have proven over the first 46 games of this season that they are not a special team. In an improving Eastern Conference, with one nearly unbeatable heavyweight (the Cleveland Cavaliers) the Wizards ceiling appears to be the second round of the playoffs- and even that might be a stretch. The Wizards desperately need an athletic young big man, and it’s hard to find one outside of the lottery. Durant probably isn’t coming regardless of whether they tank, and with so few quality consolation prizes available in free agency, a big-time rookie might be just what’s needed to inject life into what has looked like a lethargic team the first half of the season.

Why Tanking is a Bad Move:

The Wizards not have looked great thus far this year, but most people counted them out each of the past two seasons and both times they proved their doubters wrong, handily beating quality first-round opponents as underdogs. They were a tenth of a second of advancing to the Conference Finals, the NBA’s final four, last season and they still have most of the 2015 core on the roster. With Wall and Beal anything is possible in a 7 game series and it would be a mistake to give up the chance of a postseason run, especially as they have more playoff experience than much of the Eastern Conference field. Furthermore, tanking could stunt Wall and Beal’s growth and cause them to grow disgruntled with the organization, as well as taking away valuable playoff minutes from Oubre and Porter. Tanking sends a bad message to the rest of the NBA, and this would kill any chance of signing Durant, or probably even any consolation prize for Durant such as Al Horford or Hassan Whiteside.

How Likely is This to Actually Happen?

Not very. The Wizards have playoff experience, two young stars, and a host of hungry veterans. It’s highly unlikely they throw in the towel on 2016 before they have to, especially considering this is Durant’s decision summer.

Option 2: Make a Splash With a Big Trade

This Could Happen If:

Washington continues on their middling pace into the All-Star Break and the front office decides the team needs be juggled to find a spark.

Why a Big Time Trade is a Good Move:

The Wizards need a third star and as stated many times, there is no real reason to believe Durant will sign with the Wizards. Sure, he’s from DC but every NBA player is from somewhere and they don’t all play for their hometown team. The Thunder are an NBA powerhouse and the Wizards have a .457 win percentage. LeBron’s fabled Cleveland homecoming is the anomaly, yet somehow it has convinced every Wizards fan that Durant will do the same even though this is realistically not likely. If he doesn’t sign, the Wizards will be left in a bind- tons of cap space and nobody to spend it on. Washington has more assets than they’ve had in a long time, it would be a shame to see them go to waste. Between young players with potential (Porter, Oubre), lots of expiring contracts that allows other teams to gain cap flexibility (Nene, Dudley, Anderson, Neal, Sessions- $25mil in total cap space), and all their future 1st round draft picks the Wizards have the pieces to acquire any player in the league sans the “untouchables”. Trading for Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, or DeMarcus Cousins would give the Wizards the third star for the future, while making them a scary team to face in this year’s playoffs. What’s more, if the Wizards get creative enough with cap space they could potentially trade for a star, re-sign Beal, and sign Durant. A trade does;t necessarily eliminate a possibility of Durant, it just makes it highly unlikely.

Why a Big Time Trade is a Bad Move:

There’s a reason teams trade away superstars, and that reason is usually that they are head cases. This theory holds true this year as well as virtually all the impact players on the block are considered enigmas. Rolling the dice on a risky player could turn out splendidly- or it could backfire in the Wizards face and kill the House of Guards Era. With a young team, an abundance of picks and cap flexibility, Washington has no reason to sell the farm for a potential franchise-killer. Much more prudent would be to either wait out this season and attempt to woo Durant or another All-Star to DC, or to simply tank and add a key starter without gutting the core of the team.

How Likely is This to Happen?

Again, not very. It would send shockwaves around the NBA if Ernie Grunfeld- for the first time in his career- made a blockbuster trade for a bonafide star. The Wizards are only a few games out of the postseason and Grunfeld is unlikely to do a complete team overhaul.

Option Three: Stand Pat

This Could Happen If:

The Wizards come to life, finally going on a long awaited hot streak making Grunfeld decision markedly easier.

Why Standing Pat is a Good Move:

One reason stands out more than any other, they maintain a chance at signing Durant. For years he has been the apple of the Wizards eye; it would be indecisive and foolish to give up on him a mere five months before he hits the open market. What’s more, there is a good chance that the Wizards do eventually make a run. The cream always rises to the top and there’s no denying the talent on the roster. Given a soft remaining schedule and some time to gel after getting guys back off the injury list, Washington is sure hit their stride in the near future and alleviate all concern.

Why Standing Pat is a Bad Move:

The Wizards are stuck in NBA purgatory. Like the Hawks of the early 2010’s, they are the playoff team that maybe wins one series but is going no further than that. Wall and Beal may have star power but the rest of the roster is bland and average. In an NBA defined by super teams rather than parity, there is little chance for a 45 or so win team to make a real playoff run. Until the Wizards get that third star, they will never be more than a tease, the perennial playoff team that isn’t going anywhere. The franchise is so hopelessly convinced that KD is coming home that they will fail to make a trade or sacrifice a season to get a potential superstar in the lottery and miss their chance at true greatness in the Wall-Beal era.

How Likely is This to Happen?

Very. Barring an unexpected major slump or generous deal offered to them, this is what is going to happen to the 2016 Wizards. They may make a minor deal just to shake things up at the deadline, but there won’t be any front-page bonanza trades coming from DC. The team has been preparing for Durant’s impending free agency for two years- they are not about to abandon the plan mere months from its climax.