Jacinta Mitchell was admitted to a combined arts and law degree at Notre Dame before she sat her HSC. Students with an ATAR above 95 are least likely to drop out, with less than 3 per cent of this cohort withdrawing from study in 2014. Those with an ATAR between 30 and 49 are the most likely to drop out, with an attrition rate of about 24 per cent in 2014, followed by students with an ATAR between 50 and 59, with a dropout rate of 20 per cent. Students admitted on a non-ATAR basis are the third most likely group to drop out of university, with an attrition rate of nearly 18 per cent. The attrition rate of non-ATAR students has been rising since 2011 when it was about 15 per cent, and has now overtaken the dropout rate of students admitted with an ATAR between 60 and 69.

The overall attrition rate among Australian higher education providers is 21.01 per cent in 2014, up from 18.86 per cent in 2005. When adjusted for students who leave a particular course but continued to study, the overall attrition rate is 15.18 per cent, up from a low of 12.79 per cent in 2011. Jacinta Mitchell, 19, is a second-year law student at the University of Notre Dame's Sydney campus, and part of the growing cohort of students admitted to university without an ATAR. She got her acceptance letter a month before she sat her HSC in 2015, and says early entry processes provide a "more holistic view of an individual rather than marks on a transcript" and take some of the stress off year 12 students. "I still tried really hard but it was just one thing you had in the back of your mind, that if everything didn't go to plan you would still get into uni," Jacinta said. Notre Dame is one of the few universities which doesn't use ATARs for admission at all, and instead relies on students' HSC results, their year 11 and 12 reports, a personal essay and an interview. It has a relatively low attrition rate of 9.57 per cent, significantly down from 16.5 per cent in 2005.

The university's pro-vice-chancellor Professor Margot Kearns said the institution is somewhat unique in the rigour of its non-ATAR entry process, which has been changed in recent years to make academic achievement and leadership mandatory components. "We actually try to see what's happening in the student's life and what their aspirations are, and look at whether they're choosing the right course and the right university," Professor Kearns said. While a student's ATAR and basis of admission is an important indicator of their likelihood of completing their degree, other factors including the institution at which they are studying, whether they are studying part-time or off-campus, and age are more important factors in degree completion, the discussion paper found. For example, students studying part-time and off-campus are at a similar risk of degree non-completion as students with ATARs below 50, according to recent findings by Andrew Norton, who was part of the 2014 Review of the Demand Driven System. Both the number of students studying part-time and off-campus have increased significantly in recent years, with about 19 per cent of students enrolled part-time in 2014, compared to a low16.5 per cent in 2011.

Similarly, 14.6 per cent of students were studying off-campus in 2014, compared with a low of 8.3 per cent in 2006. Belinda Robinson, chief executive of peak body Universities Australia, said: "[The paper] states, point blank, that attrition is not because of poor admission standards or growing student numbers. A large number of students today enter university via a path other than an ATAR and that is not a bad thing. "Survey after survey shows that the reasons students give for not completing their studies are beyond institutional control. These are reasons that are personal – like financial pressures or juggling family responsibilities." While the discussion states that claims of a "crisis in attrition rates" are unfounded, it has recommended that higher education providers improve the transparency of the admissions process to increase degree completion and provide earlier support to students at risk of dropping out. "Having all relevant information up front would improve [students'] chances of choosing and completing the right course," the paper states.

In NSW, Southern Cross University has the highest dropout rate of 24.54 per cent, according to 2014 figures, followed by Charles Sturt University at 23.21 per cent and the University of New England at 22.89 per cent. The University of New South Wales has the lowest attrition rate of 4.8 per cent, followed by the University of Sydney at 5.93 per cent. Nationally, the University of Tasmania has the highest dropout rate of 38.13 per cent and the University of Melbourne has the lowest attrition at 3.74 per cent.