Liberals maintain strong lead

Leading or tied everywhere but Alberta

TORONTO October 14th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1438 Canadian voters five days before the federal election, just fewer than 4-in-10 will vote Liberal (37%) while just more than 3-in-10 will vote Conservative (31%). These proportions have not changed since we polled last Friday. The NDP has the support of about one quarter (24%) and this has not changed either (October 9 - 23%). The Bloc Quebecois has less than a tenth of the vote (6%), and the Greens much less (2%).





Minority Liberal government seen

If these results are projected up to the newly expanded House of Commons, the Liberals would take a minority of 127 seats, 43 fewer than required for a majority, while the Conservatives would take 114. The NDP would capture 77 seats, the Bloc as many as 19 (more than we have projected since July) and the Greens would seat only their leader.

Liberals lead or tied everywhere but Alberta

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are dominant (52%), and the Conservatives have half their vote (28%). In Quebec, Liberals now have a slight lead (29%) over the NDP (27%) and the Bloc (23%) has surpassed the Conservatives (18%). In vote rich Ontario, the Liberals have a very strong lead (42%) over the Conservatives (34%), while the New Democrats lag (23%). In the prairies, the Liberals have a small lead (37%) over the Conservatives (34%) and the NDP are in third (27%). It is only in Alberta that the Conservatives have a clear lead (52%) over the Liberals (31%). The NDP are not competitive (14%). In BC, Liberals and Conservatives are tied (33% each) and the NDP are very close (30%).

Past New Democrats, Conservatives voting Liberal

Three-in-ten New Democrats from 2011 will vote Liberal this time (31%) as will close to one fifth of past Conservatives (17%). Just more than one tenth of past Liberals will vote NDP (13%). Eight-in-ten 2011 Liberals are voting Liberal again this time, while three quarters of past Conservatives will vote their party (73%). Just more than one half of those who voted NDP in the Orange Crush of 2011 will vote for the party again this time (56%).

Gender, Income and age differentiate parties

Conservatives are prominent in mid age bands, while Liberals are older and the NDP voter is youngest. Males are more common among Conservatives, females among New Democrats and there is a relatively even balance between genders in the Liberal party. Conservatives tend to be mid income, Liberals higher income and New Democrats lower income, although income is often a proxy for age.

One quarter of decided voters may yet switch

A quarter of those who have made their vote decision may yet change their minds (23%), and these are more likely to be Liberals (24%) or New Democrats (26%) than Conservatives (14%).

Liberals widely expected to win election

Close to one half of voters expect the Liberals to win the election (44%), compared to fewer than 3-in-10 who think this of the Conservatives (27%) and much fewer who think it of the NDP (14%). One tenth of Conservatives expect the Liberals to win (10%), as do more than a third of New Democrats (36%).





Trudeau seen as best PM

Justin Trudeau is still seen as the best prime minister (29%), while Stephen Harper is second on this measure (26%), very closely followed by Tom Mulcair (24%). In a new development, very few think none of the candidates would make a good Prime Minister (6%).





Close to 3-in-10 voting strategically

Among Liberal voters, more than a quarter say they are voting for the party only because it can defeat the government (26%) in addition to those who will vote Liberal because they share the party’s values (67%). Among New Democrats, a similar proportion (28%) is voting only because of strategic considerations, rather than for their values (60%). In total, more than a third will vote Liberal for either reason (34%), while about one quarter in total will vote the NDP (24%) or Conservative (27%).

“Poll results have not shifted strongly since the end of last week, except that the Liberals lead or are tied across the country now, except in Alberta, and the NDP appear to be out of the hunt”, said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.