Chicago Fire fans were shocked this morning when news broke of a trade. A big trade. A trade that will polarize and divide many supporters. Harry Shipp has been dealt to l’Impact de Montreal for General Allocation Money and Targeted Allocation Money. Unfortunately, due to Major League Soccer’s opaque rules, it is impossible to get a complete picture of the deal without knowing the exact amount of allocation money.

Shipp was seen by many as the face of the franchise for years to come. As the third ever Fire homegrown player, hyped by the club upon his signing, he appeared to embody the best of what Chicago soccer could be. He is a skillful player, intelligent, and he wanted to live and play soccer in the city he grew up in. Harry Shipp was one of the few bright spots during a terrible time in Fire history.

Now, as Shipp becomes the latest in a string of Chicago fan favorites to play or coach in Montreal (Marsch, Klopas, Duka, Oduro, Mapp), many fans are pointing to the trade as evidence of business as usual in Bridgeview. While this is the kind of thing many in Fire land have grown accustomed to over recent years, there are signs that Nelson Rodriguez and Veljko Paunovic have more of a plan in place than Frank Yallop did.

Despite being an unpopular trade with many fans, there are alternate ways of looking at this deal. Nothing is ever black and white, so here are some theories about what could have caused this trade to go down.

–Shipp doesn’t fit Paunovic’s playing style: Harry has never been the most physically fit player, and has always struggled on the defensive side of the ball. Paunovic wants the Fire to play a high-tempo game and have the forwards press to win the ball back quickly after losing it (Think Red Bulls or Bundesliga). Shipp is not the most adept player at pressing to win the ball back, and also struggles tracking back to help on defense. Shipp is also not very versatile positionally, another trait valued by the new coaching staff. Despite being played on the left wing for two years by Frank Yallop, he is really just a CAM. If Rodriguez and Paunovic are looking for a young “core” of 7-8 players to keep for years, they are going to want to make sure that every single one of that core group fits Pauno’s tactics to a T. Harry Shipp may not.

–A foreign CAM target has made Shipp surplus to requirements: If the rumors are true, and Chicago are bringing in a foreign attacker to replace their homegrown player, they may have wanted to trade him simply to prevent him from riding the bench. If Montreal will give him more playing time, this may be a good move for both teams. Of course, the replacement the Fire bring in would have to be an immediate starter and difference maker in MLS. While the Impact already have Ignacio Piatti as a #10, he is not getting any younger and they desperately needed a backup for him last year. There have been rumors that Chicago is looking to move Designated Player Kennedy Igboananike, and the team has stockpiled a veritable mountain of allocation money. They certainly have the ability to sign an difference maker or two if they can close the deal(s). The X-factor here is that Chicago has done a very good job of keeping new signings secret this offseason. The club’s pursuits of Arturo Alvarez, Rodrigo Ramos, and Johan Kappelhof were all kept quiet and for all we know, there is an attacker from Europe already on the way.

–Collin Fernandez has impressed Paunovic a lot: Another homegrown central midfielder on the roster, Fernandez is only 19 and has looked very good in preseason. He is on the radar of the Peruvian national team, has played for the USA U-18s, and has seemingly progressed very quickly in the past two years. He can also cover much more ground than Shipp, and if he can step up as a spot starter this year, he may be more likely to accept that role behind a big name CAM than Shipp would. He also may have more upside than Shipp, as well as a lower cap hit.

–Shipp has reached his plateau: It is totally possible that Harry Shipp is as good as he is going to get. Let me be clear – he is already a very good player, and could be a fringe national team pool player. But as the only sign of hope during the worst two Fire seasons in history, he may have been over-hyped by a fan base desperate for a star player. 10 goals and 15 assists in 64 MLS appearances is a good stat line, but for comparison, Piatti has 14 goals and 10 assists in 35 MLS games in which he was slowed by injuries. Shipp is only 24, but two seasons of playing on the wing in a bad team can’t have been good for his development. At this point, if he stays in MLS, his ceiling is much lower than it looked during his rookie season. And if that is true, his trade value will never be higher than it is now.

All that is to say that there are legitimate reasons to move Shipp. But for every one of those, there is a reason to keep him around. Many American soccer fans were excited to see Shipp, Matt Polster, and Brandon Vincent playing together for a whole season and developing together. The Fire still need depth, and if Shipp was going to be depth, wouldn’t that be better than having draft picks play that role?

One thing is certain- Nelson Rodriguez and the Chicago Fire will be judged very harshly no matter what happens in the aftermath of this deal. Shipp was a fan favorite and regardless of what one thinks of his upside or ability, it is always risky to trade that kind of player to a division rival. Fans in Chicago will be hoping this is a sign of making big plans, and not more business as usual.