Iowa, N.H. key to Bernie Sanders' campaign strategy

Nicole Gaudiano | USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — It could all come down to Iowa and New Hampshire for Sen. Bernie Sanders.

The underdog candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination is counting on momentum from strong finishes in those early contests to help him pull off a gigantic political upset against former secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whose lead averaged 25 percentage points in recent national polls.

Sanders, I-Vt., has invested in staff and resources in states that vote later in the process and, on Tuesday, he became the first presidential candidate to launch a major television advertising blitz in Nevada.

But the campaign acknowledges that, absent wins or close finishes in Iowa on Feb. 1 and New Hampshire on Feb. 9, it will become even harder for Sanders to compete.

“Does Hillary have a serious challenger? That’s really going to be the question that’s answered by Iowa — is the Sanders challenge symbolic or is it serious?” said Tad Devine, Sanders’ senior adviser. “If we do succeed early, and I believe we can, I think we can generate momentum.”

Since Sanders announced his candidacy, he has made 14 trips to New Hampshire and wrapped up his 13th trip to Iowa this week, with plans to travel there again next week. Expectations will be higher for Sanders in New Hampshire, his neighboring state where he has led most polls since August.

“If the New Hampshire program needs something, we definitely get it because it’s essential,” Julia Barnes, Sanders’ director in New Hampshire, said of the campaign’s investment in the state.

Clinton has averaged about a 15 percentage-point lead in recent Iowa polls. But Sanders said on CBS This Morning on Monday that he has a “shot to win in Iowa.” His Monday-to-Wednesday trip drew more than 31,000 to rallies and town meetings, according to the campaign.

“If we can win in Iowa, if we can win in New Hampshire, I think we’re on our way to a national victory and one of the great political upsets in the modern history of America,” he said.

Back-to-back wins may be what it takes to have a shot at overcoming Clinton, but Sanders faces significant challenges.

Clinton has prominent endorsements in both states. In New Hampshire — a state she won during her 2008 primary bid — she has been endorsed by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, Gov. Maggie Hassan, Rep. Ann Kuster and a lengthy list of state representatives, senators and other leaders.

She began advertising in August — three months ahead of Sanders — and her campaign has spent about $12 million on advertising, while a pro-Clinton super PAC has spent nearly $200,000, according to SMG Delta ad-tracking data reported Tuesday by NBC. The Sanders campaign has spent almost $7.6 million.

Devine concedes Clinton has “real advantages,” including an Iowa electorate that is typically older and a high turnout expectation for women in New Hampshire.

The Sanders campaign hopes to overcome such barriers by expanding the number of young people and others in the political process, as President Obama did ahead of the 2008 primaries. That year, Obama won the Iowa caucuses after a record attendance that nearly doubled the 2004 turnout. Clinton placed third.

Sanders' volunteers and staff are fanning out, not only at colleges in Iowa and New Hampshire, but at high schools. They said they hope to win support from 17-year-olds, who can participate in the contests if they will be 18 in time for the general election.

“In order for us to prevail, we’re going to have to change things,” Devine said. “We’re going to have to get new people to participate.”

A significantly larger turnout in Iowa would likely work in Sanders’ favor, said Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University in Des Moines. If he were to prevent her from capturing 50% of support from caucus-goers, “even if she wins, he’s embarrassed her,” he said.

“It’s not as bad as a loss, but it’s next to a loss,” he said. “It suggests a significant weakness.”

Still, Goldford said, actually winning Iowa will be important for Sanders because it would show “he can win someplace other than his backyard.”

Dante Scala, associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, said Sanders needs to win both to have a credible shot at the nomination. And even then, he said, “I wouldn’t bet on it.”

He said it helps Sanders that New Hampshire colleges will be in session on primary day, Feb. 9, because it's a lot easier for students to get to polls. But Clinton’s relatively older supporters are a more reliable electorate, he said.

“I don’t see any way to describe Sanders’ lead in New Hampshire as a safe lead,” Scala said.

After Iowa and New Hampshire, Sanders will begin to face more non-white voters, who have largely favored Clinton in polls. He launched Spanish-language radio ads in Nevada along with ads on African-American radio stations in South Carolina, including one that emphasizes his fight to end “institutional racism” and reform the criminal justice system.

The campaign, funded largely by small donations, plans to invest in a 50-state strategy. Barnes said the South Carolina organization is strong, Nevada’s is growing and the campaign is making investments in states that vote in March, as well.

“I don’t anticipate that you’ll see (New Hampshire) be the final stop for us,” she said.

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