Future Forward Party -- whose future?

Anakot Mai Party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit speaks with Bangkok voters who came for a 'Run With Future Forward' event at Lumpini Park. (Photo by Chanat Katanyu)

Branding itself as a choice for first-time voters, both the "red" and "yellow" middle-class Thais who are tired of the military regime and colour-coded conflicts, the newly formed Future Forward Party is by far one of the most prominent parties in Thai politics.

The party's strategy dwells largely on the personality cult around its two young, charismatic leaders, especially multi-billionaire Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit who has spelt out the need for a departure from traditional politics.

He has also stressed the prai (serfs) versus ammart (aristocrats) clash which characterises the social hierarchy in Thailand. Despite his enormous wealth, the young politician has positioned himself as a prai, someone from the lower strata of the population. This assertion has earned him the ironic title of Prai Muen Laan (10 billion heavy serfs) in the media.

"I come from the 1% but I'm standing for the 99%," says the 40-year-old Thanathorn.

His interest in politics comes at the perfect time. Sentiment against the military has hardened, while those who are tired of colour-coded politics long for a new type of politician in Thai society.

During the inaugural meeting in Bangkok in March this year, Mr Thanathorn and co-founder Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, a scholar at Thammasat University and a member of the Nitirat Group (Law for the People), said they want to end the political chaos, eliminate military power and restore democracy. Their efforts to distinguish themselves from the traditional parties are noteworthy. Calling themselves "new blood", they claim their Future Forward Party is not a party of the "ruling class, bureaucrats or technocrats", but one of ordinary people who want to change Thai society and politics.

Since entering the political arena, Mr Thanathorn has put forward a number of proposals, which he says are primarily aimed at eradicating inequality, while accelerating decentralisation, securing a social welfare system and, above all, cutting the defence budget. He has also eyed some tax measures to create fair competition, including a capital gains tax. Mr Thanathorn's agenda includes far-reaching deregulation of the economy, privatisation of state-owned industries, and an increase in the effectiveness of domestic industry through automation and digitisation. He is happy to provide information about the production increases of his group of companies via the use of robots.

His goal is for his company to be fully automated by the end of 2017. Asked about the problem of job losses, Mr Thanathorn shows himself to be surprisingly unimaginative. In general, the interests of employees seem secondary to him. Some still remember how his firm harshly treated members of the union during a high-profile labour dispute with 260 workers being fired; while some "obedient" ones were re-hired shortly afterwards. Mr Thanathorn still justifies this move today.

So far, Mr Thanathorn -- a self-proclaimed prai who cultivates the image of a "leftist", has paid little attention to the 22 million Thais who work in the agricultural sector, without concrete proposals to improve their livelihood. The question arises as to whose "future" the Future Forward Party intends to improve.

Future Forward co-founder Piyabutr openly shares the ideology of the Spanish left-wing populist party Podemos, the Italian Five-Star Party and the Greek party Syriza. Following their political models, he wants to appeal to the younger generation to become more politically active. The party is therefore openly courting first-time voters. Many do not feel committed to any of the traditional political camps, but are tired of the military government and the political unrest that hindered the country in recent years. These politically disenchanted young Thais who do not see an option in Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, Thaksin Shinawatra or Abhisit Vejjajiva are the party's main target group.

The party proudly points out this claim is also reflected in its membership structure: The 25 founding members are on average aged 31. Thanathorn, at 40, is the oldest member, and with that fact, the party appears to cater to a young clientele: well-educated, urban, well-heeled people who are shaped by pop culture and have an affinity for the internet and technology. Mr Thanathorn likes to refer to himself as a "start-up" politician in the style of the business world from which he comes, in order to further differentiate himself from the traditional political forces in the country.

Another target group of the party are those members of the middle class who are royalist and against Thaksin, as well as those critical of the coup or the consolidation of military power after the putsch. To appeal to these people, the party uses aggressive rhetoric against the military and distances itself from Thaksin; while -- as a way to avoid offending the royalists -- simply tries to keep some contentious issues like Section 112 vague.

Mr Piyabutr who as a member of the Nitirat Group is expected to be a critic of the law. Yet, he has refused to make any personal comments about it. However, the question arises why a party that is committed to a comprehensive restructuring of important traditional institutions and is well aware of the human rights problem of the lese majeste law does not take a stand on the subject. Their reluctance could be interpreted as a sign the party is prepared to make compromises with the old forces.

Consensus is also a word that Mr Piyabutr likes to mention. The party co-founder thinks the origin of the 10-year-long political conflict lies in the unwillingness of the political actors involved to reach a consensus. None of the democratically elected governments -- the Democrat Party or those in the Thaksin camp -- were able to govern stably without acceptance by their opponents, who resorted to repeated street protests that ended in a coup and the consolidation of military rule. Under such circumstances, the Future Forward Party emerged in the political game.

It is already clear that the Future Forward Party primarily aims at closing ranks with anti-Thaksin "yellows" and "progressive reds;" while the large number of "reds" who are more likely to come from the poor strata of Thai society and benefit from Thaksin's policies seem to have no place in the party. The creation of a consensus that also includes the socially marginalised parts of the "reds" seems extremely unlikely. For the "yellow", progressive middle class to which the party has turned, they do not share a collective experience of oppression that has given the red-shirt movement the cohesion that regularly allowed it to win past votes.

Earlier last month, Mr Thanathorn went on a trip that covered Britain, France, Belgium and Germany, meeting politicians, government representatives, the media and party supporters who showed due enthusiasm. During an interview with the BBC in London on Oct 9, Mr Thanathorn announced a social security system. Yet, it's a surprise that he did not agree with increasing minimum wages based on the inflation rate, saying this would be a burden on employers and would not contribute to fair income distribution. Such a statement illustrates his economic positioning on the employers' side.

The fact that income in Thailand is distributed unfairly and that fair wages are a prerequisite for equal opportunities for all citizens seems of little interest to Mr Thanathorn. There are still no details of fundamental reforms of tax policy. In principle, a progressive tax would correct income distribution and promote social policy goals. Financing a social security system by cutting the defence budget or introducing other types of taxes, as proposed by Future Forward, cannot be a sustainable means of establishing a functioning social security system. This misguided tax policy of the party is understandable, however, as it aims at the upper middle class and high earners. And it is precisely these strata of the population that would feel a progressive tax the most. Thus, tax reform is out of the question for Mr Thanathorn.

Whether the Future Forward Party can bring about a political break from the past in Thailand remains in doubt. Aware of weak support from rural areas, Mr Thanathorn and party core figures have paid upcountry visits. Yet, they are too elitist in their attitude and appearance. They still use the "elite language" that prioritise urban people, those of the middle class. Political history tells us victory always goes to the parties that capture the hearts and minds of the rural poor in the North and Northeast.