How big is her lead? Nope, bigger than that.

Ouch, Republicans …



According to Ballotpedia's battleground poll , [Hillary] Clinton leads [Donnie] Trump: 51% to 37% in Florida

45% to 41% in Iowa

50% to 33% in Michigan

48% to 38% in North Carolina

46% to 37% in Ohio

49% to 35% in Pennsylvania

45% to 38% in Virginia

Libertarian Gary Johnson has no effect on the margins. No other party matters. Add all these up, and its a 48-37 Clinton lead. Trump is barely getting one-third of the vote.

Now the pollster also matched Clinton up against John Kasich and Paul Ryan, given the growing efforts to oust Trump at the Republican convention. Kasich leads Clinton slightly, while Ryan ties her. This should give further impetus to those coup efforts—or should it? Remember, that alternate universe head-to-head polling doesn’t factor in the fury of the Trump tea party wing of the GOP. The question wasn’t, “If Trump gets booted off the ticket and John Kasich takes his place ...” But still, if I’m a Republican, I’m still trying to figure out how to rid myself of the Trump disease.

One final note: Remember how demographics are destiny? It’s fitting that the whitest state on the roster is the strongest Trump state of all. If I were to worry about November, I’d worry about white states like Iowa, Maine, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. I’m not worrying! But even if I was, I wouldn’t worry so much. The big, more diverse states are still looking good for us.