Phil Bredesen holds double-digit lead over Marsha Blackburn in US Senate race, new MTSU poll shows

Former Gov. Phil Bredesen has a 10-point lead over U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn in the race to succeed U.S. Sen. Bob Corker, according to a new poll from Middle Tennessee State University.

The poll, released Thursday, found 45 percent of 600 registered Tennessee voters said they would choose Bredesen, a Democrat and former Nashville mayor, if the election were immediately held.

Blackburn, a Brentwood Republican, netted 35 percent, with another 17 percent of respondents saying they were not sure. Three percent of respondents declined to answer.

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The latest poll is the first survey released this year to suggest Bredesen has a double-digit lead over Blackburn.

The MTSU poll also found Bredesen had a considerable advantage over Blackburn in terms of support from voters on the other side of the aisle.

Forty-five percent of self-described independents said they would vote for Bredesen while only 33 percent of such voters said they would vote for Blackburn, the poll found.

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Twenty percent of Republican respondents said they would vote for Bredesen while 5 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Blackburn.

The political makeup of the poll's respondents included 34 percent Republicans, 25 percent Democrats and 28 percent independents. Another 8 percent said "something else."

In an interview, Ken Blake, director of the MTSU poll, said Bredesen's support among Republicans is hardly shocking given his popularity within the party while governor from 2003 to 2011.

"I think some of that good will or social capital that he built up as governor may be paying dividends for him now," Blake said.

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On the other hand, Blake said Blackburn is trying to appeal to more "core conservatives."

"If she ends up having to kind of attract some moderate Democrats or Republican-leaning independents, it could be a challenge," Blake said.

The MTSU poll is the latest survey indicating Bredesen would beat Blackburn in a head-to-head matchup. Last month, a poll from a Democratic-leaning firm showed Bredesen had a 5 percent lead over Blackburn.

But other polls have shown Blackburn would beat Bredesen.

With so many respondents still undecided on the race, Blake surmised that many Tennesseans are distracted by the consistent flow of news and developments out of Washington, D.C.

The MTSU poll did not include questions about other Republican candidates seeking the nomination for U.S. Senate, or favorability and name recognition for Blackburn and Bredesen.

In MTSU's last poll, conducted in October, respondents weighed in on the favorability of Blackburn and Bredesen, and others.

Also seeking the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate are Williamson County businessman Darrell Lynn, former Memphis Grizzlies ophthalmologist Rolando Toyos and perennial candidate Larry Crim.

In a statement, Blackburn's campaign spokesman Abbi Sigler said Bredesen was trying to convince voters he's a moderate but he's more in line with Democrats like U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

"Tennesseans know Marsha Blackburn is the only candidate who will represent their conservative values in the United States Senate," Sigler said.

After the poll was release, Alyssa Hansen, a spokeswoman for the Bredesen campaign said, "Message is loud and clear: Tennesseans want a leader who is willing to work with anyone to get things done. Team Phil Bredesen is taking nothing for granted."

Corker, Haslam weigh in

Corker in September announced he would not seek a third term. He reiterated that decision in February.

Making a brief appearance at the state Capitol on Thursday, Corker told reporters the latest poll underlined the fact that the race between Blackburn and Bredsen will be tight.

"There's a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and the end," he said. "It'd be too early to make any prognostications today."

Speaking to reporters Thursday, Haslam said he had just heard about the poll and wanted to see the methodology before commenting.

"But I've said all along that's going to be a close race," Haslam said. "Anybody that thinks that's a for-sure Republican seat is kidding themselves."

Governor's race

Beyond the U.S. Senate race, the latest MTSU poll featured questions on the governor's race, as well as voters' views on Corker, Haslam, President Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Lamar Alexander.

The poll found 30 percent of respondents had a favorable views of Knoxville entrepreneur Randy Boyd and U.S. Rep. Diane Black.

Former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean, a Democrat, had a positive view among 26 percent of respondents, followed by House Speaker Beth Harwell, R-Nashville, who netted 23 percent.

Williamson County businessman Bill Lee and House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh trailed the pack, with 16 percent of respondents having a positive view of each candidate.

Fitzhugh and Dean are seeking the Democratic nomination, while Black, Boyd, Harwell and Lee are seeking the GOP nomination.

In terms of negative views, Black led the way. A total of 38 percent of respondents said they had a negative view of her. Respondents ranked Dean second in terms of negative views with 32 percent.

In MTSU's October poll, 31 percent of respondents had a negative view of Black.

In the latest poll, the negative views of the other candidates were: Harwell, 29 percent; Fitzhugh, 28 percent; Lee, 24 percent; and Boyd, 23 percent.

Blake said the biggest findings on the governor's race is how many people remain undecided. Roughly a quarter of respondents said they did not know and favor or oppose any of the gubernatorial candidates, leaving room for the hopefuls to pick up support.

"The unusually interesting political dramas playing out in Washington right now have to be a distraction for everybody in the country as well as voters in Tennessee," he said.

Presidential approval rating

The poll found 50 percent of respondents had a favorable view of Trump's job performance while 41 percent disapproved. Eight percent said they did not know, with another one percent declining to answer.

The president's approval rating is similar to MTSU's October poll, which found 50 percent approved of his job and 41 percent disapproved.

More: MTSU poll: Who is more popular in Tennessee, Donald Trump or Bob Corker?

"The president’s stable approval ratings in Tennessee could be a positive sign for Blackburn, who has been aligning herself with him in her campaign advertising,” Blake said in a statement. “But the same numbers indicate he is a polarizing figure, which could be a problem for Blackburn if she ends up needing help from voters outside Trump’s base.”

Other approval ratings

The poll found respondents had approval ratings for the following officials and legislative bodies:

41 percent approval of Corker, compared to 45 percent in October

39 percent approval of Alexander, compared to 45 percent in October

58 percent approval of Haslam, compared to 56 percent in October

47 percent approval of the state legislature, compared to 48 percent in October; and

14 percent approval of the U.S. Congress, compared to 13 percent in October.

The poll was conducted March 22 to 29 using cell phones and landlines and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Reach Joel Ebert at jebert@tennessean.com or 615-772-1681 and on Twitter @joelebert29.