College football preview: The American Athletic Conference

Paul Myerberg | USA TODAY Sports

The saddest sight on that cold and rainy Philadelphia afternoon in October was the lone, solitary, poncho-clad fan way up near the final rows of Lincoln Financial Field, watching hometown Temple play visiting East Carolina from a seat closer to New Jersey than green turf.

At least he caught a good show, had he been rooting for the home team: ECU was frustrated by rain and defensive ferocity, losing 20-10 despite tripling Temple's output of total yardage and first downs. Five turnovers will do that to you, ECU's Ruffin McNeill said afterward.

Good for Temple; bad for the Pirates; worse still for the American Athletic Conference.

The loss, ECU's second on the year — joining a non-conference loss at South Carolina — knocked the Pirates out of contention for an access-bowl bid to the College Football Playoff. With ECU no longer in the picture, the American no longer registered in the national conversation.

There was no American team in the final Playoff rankings. One team, Memphis, squeezed into the last spot of the final Amway Coaches Poll. No other team even received votes. As a whole, the American went 0-10 against ranked competition.

It's easy — with the hubbub over the Big 12 Conference's exclusion from the top four as one example —– to take early returns from the Playoff's existence and blow them out of proportion, hand-wringing over a single season's worth of evidence at the expense of the bigger picture. Your nearest researcher may call this "length bias," or the diagnosis of results before the onset of actual symptoms.

Don't fall into that trap: Last year notwithstanding, there's room for optimism surrounding the American.

"I think we're on track and I think we're well ahead of schedule," commissioner Mike Aresco said. "In comparison to a few years ago, I feel much better than I did. That seems like a distant memory now, it really does. In a nutshell, the state of the league is good, it's strong. We're on the map nationally. I think we're poised for a really, really good year."

With Cincinnati poised to challenge for an access bowl, Memphis primed to continue its surge, Navy now in the fold, Central Florida a constant threat and Temple a trendy sleeper nationally — among other teams, among other outlooks — that much is true: This could be a good year for the American. Yet at the heart of this optimism stands long-range positivity, fueled by a tweaked conference alignment, an influx of coaching talent and countless non-conference opportunities.

Navy's arrival doesn't just bolster the American's national profile, adding as it does a program with near-flawless pedigree and a recent run of success; it pushes the league's rank to 12 teams, allowing for a pair of six-team divisions and a conference championship game.

In addition to Cincinnati's Tommy Tuberville and UCF's George O'Leary, the American's ranks include a number of fast-rising sideline prospects: Matt Rhule at Temple, Tom Herman at Houston, Chad Morris at SMU and Justin Fuente at Memphis. If to a slightly lesser degree, this mirrors the path taken by the Pac-12 Conference, which has invested in coaching talent to enormously beneficial results.

In non-conference play this fall, American teams will take on Miami (Fla.), Brigham Young, Penn State, Notre Dame, Stanford, South Carolina, Florida, Virginia Tech, Missouri, Florida State, Louisville, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Baylor, among others. Opportunities abound; the league just needs to win.

"We don't play just a good non-conference schedule, we play an outstanding non-conference schedule," Aresco said. "We are challenging ourselves. But we need to win more of those games. We need to be competitive in all those games and we need to win more of them.

"Right now we've got some really, really good teams. Last year we had good teams, some very good teams. But we need to have that couple of elite teams that emerge, that can potentially vie for New Year's Day. We'd like to be back on New Year's Day."

Off-field growth — through new teams, new divisions, new coaches — comes easy; the hard part comes in translating this progression into on-field results, and in the process remaking the national perception of the American.

"We have to build brands," said Aresco. "Our motto lately has been, 'We're good and we're worth watching.' The conference has already done some remarkable things. I think it's just a question of getting more coverage. We're urging writers and media to cover us more. So much of it has been Power Five, and there are 10 FBS conferences.

"We're trying to get that steered into the consciousness. It's a process. There's no magic formula. You just keep fighting."

And there's a clear end game in mind: joining the Power Five structure.

Said Aresco, "We want to be in the Power Five conversation. I think we're in that conversation. I hate the term because it tends to denigrate those who are not in that category, but we have to live with it for now."

EAST

1. Cincinnati (No. 30)

2. Temple (No. 56)

3. Central Florida (No. 58)

4. East Carolina (No. 66)

5. South Florida (No. 103)

6. Connecticut (No. 119)

WEST

1. Memphis (No. 35)

2. Navy (No. 50)

3. Houston (No. 63)

4. Tulane (No. 91)

5. Tulsa (No. 108)

6. SMU (No. 117)

By reading this sentence, you have agreed to a strict no-Googling rule in finding your answer.

Nine former Urban Meyer assistants currently serve as a head coach on the FBS level. Another two of Meyer's former assistants have been head coaches in the recent past. Can you name the nine current FBS head coaches? Extra credit for naming the two ex-assistants who were but are not currently FBS head coaches. Two hints: one, there's clearly some tie to the American, as you might think; and two, one of those active nine was a head coach before serving under Meyer, and is now again.

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7. American Athletic Conference

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CINCINNATI

Best case: The Bearcats do lose once, likely during a pair of tough games in October against Miami (Fla.) and Brigham Young, but at 11-1 secure the top spot among teams in the non-major conferences.

Worst case: Cincinnati loses five games: Temple, Memphis, Miami, BYU and UCF.

CENTRAL FLORIDA

Best case: Topping Cincinnati gives UCF the East Division and a puncher's chance at an access-bowl bid.

Worst case: The Knights go 6-6, winning fewer than eight games for just the second time 2009.

TEMPLE

Best case: Temple exceed even some lofty preseason expectations in vaulting to the top of the East; included in the regular season is a victory against Penn State.

Worst case: Given the team's talent and coaching acumen, sliding back out of bowl eligibility would be pretty disappointing.

EAST CAROLINA

Best case: The offense doesn't miss a beat without former coordinator Lincoln Riley, helping ECU win nine games in the regular season despite a changing cast.

Worst case: A sour start in non-conference play sets ECU off on the wrong foot in a four-win finish.

SOUTH FLORIDA

Best case: I guess seven wins would be pretty exciting for a fan base growing tired of the program's recent ways.

Worst case: Let's say three wins, which would be a major issue for Willie Taggart and the Bulls' coaching staff.

CONNECTICUT

Best case: Progress. It's hard to put a win total on progress. But it'd be nice to see the Huskies improve.

Worst case: Regression. Think that's not possible? It is, technically, since UConn won just once in 2014. Winless would be a bad thing for second-year coach Bob Diaco.

HOUSTON

Best case: Thanks to the rebuilt and explosive offense installed by new coach Tom Herman and his staff, the Cougars win more than eight games for the first time since 2011.

Worst case: Houston finishes tied for fifth in the West, but it'd take a real disaster to question the program's decision to nab Herman from Ohio State.

NAVY

Best case: Navy beats Army.

Worst case: Army beats Navy.

MEMPHIS

Best case: After last year's major breakthrough, Memphis returns to the top of the American thanks to impressive wins against Navy, Cincinnati and Temple.

Worst case: There's still cause for long-term optimism, but the Tigers slide out of bowl play.

TULANE

Best case: Curtis Johnson's solid recruiting gives Tulane the talent and depth it needs to finish at 8-4 and second in the division.

Worst case: Tulane matches last year's total with three wins.

TULSA

Best case: More than six wins would mark an impressive debut for Philip Montgomery, but Tulsa's real coaching star is new defensive coordinator Bill Young.

Worst case: The Golden Hurricane lose to SMU and end up in the cellar of the West Division.

SMU

Best case: New coach Chad Morris works his typical magic on offense, propelling SMU to seven wins and a bowl berth.

Worst case: Much like last season, SMU wins just one game and ranks among the nation's worst.

Offense

QB: Keenan Reynolds, Navy

RB: Mike Boone, Cincinnati

RB: Kenneth Farrow, Houston

WR: Keevan Lucas, Tulsa

WR: Mekale McKay, Cincinnati

TE: Alan Cross, Memphis

OL: Ike Harris, East Carolina

OL: Parker Ehinger, Cincinnati

OL: Kyle Friend, Temple

OL: E.K. Binns, Navy

OL: J.T. Boyd, East Carolina

Defense

DL: Thomas Niles, UCF

DL: Silverberry Mouhon, Cincinnati

DL: Hersey Walton, Temple

DL: Praise Martin-Oguike, Temple

LB: Tyler Matakevich, Temple

LB: Zeek Bigger, East Carolina

LB: Nico Marley, Tulane

CB: William Jackson, Houston

CB: Parry Nickerson, Tulane

S: Adrian McDonald, Houston

S: Zach Edwards, Cincinnati

Specialists

K: Jake Elliott, Memphis

P: Dalton Parks, Tulsa

RET: Arkeel Newsome, Connecticut

Quarterback: Navy and Cincinnati (tie). It depends on what's demanded from the position: Keenan Reynolds fits Navy's offense like a glove, while Gunner Kiel excels in the Bearcats' pass-based scheme. Both are superb.

Running back: Houston. Between seniors Kenneth Farrow and Ryan Jackson, the Cougars tout the league's best one-two backfield pair.

Wide receiver and tight end: Cincinnati. The Bearcats are loaded with seniors, making this perhaps the most experienced receiver corps in the entire country. Mekale McKay is the best of the bunch.

Offensive line: Memphis. Despite losing all-conference right tackle Al Bond, the Tigers return the majority of last year's rotation and add Louisville transfer Ryan Mack.

Defensive line: Temple. As many as three linemen were under consideration for the preseason all-conference team, with end Matt Ioannidis joining Praise Martin-Oguike and Hersey Walton.

Linebacker: Temple. Led by Matakevich, this unit may end up being the best unit, period, in the entire conference.

Secondary: Houston. Having a stopper in William Jackson is one thing, but the Cougars also tout a pair of top talents at safety.

Special teams: Memphis. I expect kicker Jake Elliott to contend for national hardware, while punter Spencer Smith is very much in the mix for all-conference honors.

What to expect in the AAC in 2015 USA TODAY Sports' Paul Myerberg breaks down the American Athletic Conference, including the game of the year and which player is going to break out in 2015.

Navy's Ken Niumatalolo is one of nine active coaches in the FBS to lead their current program in career wins. Now 57-35 since the start of the 2008 season, Niumatalolo passed former Navy coach George Welsh last season; fittingly, he did so with a win against Army. The others: Frank Beamer, Pat Fitzgerald, Mike Gundy, Gary Patterson, Gary Pinkel, Bill Snyder, Steve Spurrier and Bob Stoops.

Speaking of elite coaching company … Three active coaches have won eight or more games at four different FBS programs. One is Urban Meyer, at Bowling Green, Utah, Florida and Ohio State. Another is Nick Saban, who reached that mark at Toledo, Michigan State, LSU and Alabama. And the third? Tommy Tuberville, who has won at least eight games in a season at Mississippi, Auburn, Texas Tech and Cincinnati.

For starters, last year's 10-win finish marked Memphis' first year with double-digit wins since 1938, when the Tigers went undefeated under Allyn McKeen. That's not all: Memphis joins Air Force as the only program in the FBS to have a 10-win season and a 10-loss season within the last four years.

ECU looked inward to find its replacement for Riley, with Ruffin McNeill opting to promote Dave Nichol rather than conduct a wider search for his new offensive coordinator. One of the more notable changes will come in scoring territory: Look for Nichol to stress the tight end more than in ECU's recent past, particularly when the Pirates reach the red zone.

Temple is the only team in the FBS to return all 11 of its starters on defense. The best of the bunch if senior linebacker Tyler Matakevich, who has posted three 100-tackle seasons in a row and leads all active FBS defenders with 355 career stops. How close is his next-closest competitor? No other active defender in the country has even 300 career tackles – so it's Matakevich in a landslide.

If Tulane finishes with a winning record in 2015, Curtis Johnson will become just the second coach in the last 40 years to win seven or more games twice with the Green Wave. The other was Tommy Bowden, who won seven games in 1997 and led Tulane to a 12-0 finish in 1998.

Connecticut won at least eight games in each of Randy Edsall's last four seasons with the Huskies, culminating in a conference title and Fiesta Bowl berth in 2010. The Huskies are since mired in four losing seasons in a row, the program's longest such streak since 1998-2001. The good news? Edsall's solid run began in 2002. The bad news? I'm not sure if Bob Diaco is the next Randy Edsall.

UCF's 34-27 loss to N.C. State in last year's Bitcoin Bowl snapped a pair of winning streaks. It was the Knights' first loss in 25 tries in games kicking off later than 3 p.m. and the team's first defeat in 13 tries in non-Saturday games.

Heisman Trophy: Keenan Reynolds, Navy. He'll have the numbers and the positive recognition that comes from playing for a service academy.

Davey O'Brien Award (best quarterback): Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati. Reynolds is a candidate here as well, obviously, since it stands to reason that a Heisman contender is also among the best at his position. But save some love for Kiel, who can make noise in more ways than one – as an awards candidate, in the hunt for an access bowl, as a high draft pick – with another strong season.

Butkus Award (best linebacker): Tyler Matakevich, Temple. He's a long shot, but another year of 100-plus tackles, if in conjunction with a top-10 defense, could boost Matakevich into the race.

Rimington Trophy (best center): Kyle Friend, Temple. Friend is on the preseason watch list, along with you, me and everyone we know, but being on among the many contenders will be a plus should the Owls make early-season noise.

Lou Groza Award (best kicker): Jake Elliott, Memphis. That Elliott's not even on the preseason watch list should have Mr. Groza rolling over in his grave.

Have 1,000 yards receiving: Keevan Lucas, Tulsa. He cracked that mark a year ago despite playing on an offense that ranked 99th in the FBS in yards per play.

Throw for 3,500 yards: Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati. That's a no-brainer. After throwing for 3,254 yards last fall, Kiel is an absolute lock for 3,500 with the potential for 4,000.

Be fired: Willie Taggart, USF. The optimism that surrounded his arrival in 2013 has been replaced by gloomy pessimism. UConn's Bob Diaco hasn't been a miracle worker, but Taggart is one additional year along in the process with little to show for it.

Be coaching in a Power Five conference in 2016: Justin Fuente, Memphis. He gets the edge by a hair over Temple's Matt Rhule, if only thanks to the sad state of Memphis football prior to Fuente's arrival.

Have 1,500 yards rushing: Kenneth Farrow, Houston. I predict big things for Farrow in Houston's new offense, should he get the touches he needs to churn out 100-year games with regularity.

Be a first round pick in 2016: William Jackson, Houston. The American is loaded with potential first-round picks, to be honest. But if Jackson can prove he has the frame to stand up against bigger receivers and the run game, his nose for the football and college production may place him among the top three or four cornerbacks in the draft.

Lead the conference in scoring offense: Houston. I love the Herman hire, as do most; he loves the skill players at his disposal, as he should.

Lead the conference in scoring defense: Temple. The Owls did so a year ago, edging ahead of perennially stout UCF. The Knights are once again a strong contender for this designation, but Temple's full supply of returning starters bodes well for their defensive potential.

Exceed expectations: Tulane. Let's not count Temple, since the consensus seems to be that the Owls will exceed last year's win total and push for a divisional title. Go instead with Tulane, which could surprise and reach bowl eligibility for the second time in three years.

Disappoint: Memphis. History isn't on the Tigers' side. And then there's this idea: One year after winning 10 games, Memphis could slide back to seven wins, still reach a bowl and still have a fine season … but still be considered a bit of a disappointment after last year's breakthrough. If we need something a bit more nuts and bolts, I wonder how the defense fares without coordinator Barry Odom, now back in his old stomping grounds at Missouri.

Not every program in the conference has a clear-cut starter in advance of fall camp. Bonus points for those schools without a major competition, let alone those with an accomplished and trustworthy returning starter.

1. Keenan Reynolds, Navy. The most prolific running quarterback in the history of college football, Reynolds provides the American with its strongest hope for a Heisman Trophy contender.

2. Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati. It's essentially a tie between the Kiel and Reynolds. Kiel is by far the best passer in the league — and one of the best nationally — and a tremendous fit in Cincinnati's offense. His potential is off the charts.

3. P.J. Walker, Temple. He took a step back last season even as the Owls moved forward, but look for Walker to begin matching his significant potential when surrounded by a stronger and more experienced supporting cast.

4. Greg Ward Jr., Houston. Other quarterbacks in the American put up better numbers last fall, but I love the way Ward should fit into Herman's offense — and let's remember the impressive work Herman put in last fall with Ohio State's quarterbacks.

5. Paxton Lynch, Memphis. Lynch has quietly developed into an all-conference contender behind the tutelage of Justin Fuente and positional coach Brad Cornelsen.

6. Justin Holman, Central Florida. Holman exemplifies the league's depth under center: The American might not have more than two national-award candidates, but the conference has six very strong starters.

7. Kurt Benkert, ECU. He played a touch as a redshirt freshman, seeing action in three games as Shane Carden's backup. With Carden gone, Benkert should eventually take control of an offense that also rebuilds at wide receiver with the loss of the prolific Justin Hardy.

8. Tanner Lee, Tulane. There's more than enough room for growth, but let's remember: Lee is only a sophomore, meaning last year's uneven play should have only been expected.

9. Dane Evans, Tulsa. Cutting down on interceptions and mental missteps should be Evans' primary goal. That's if he even grabs and maintains the starting role: Tulsa has another handful of candidates with some degree of recruiting pedigree, including four-star true freshman Chad President.

10. Matt Davis, SMU. Davis will very likely start to open the season, though his skill set doesn't exactly match Morris' goals for the offense. Down the road, and perhaps as soon as conference play, look for incoming freshman Ben Hicks to grab the job.

11. Quinton Flowers, South Florida. Former Penn State transfer Steven Bench is still very much in the running, but Flowers' relative upside — in comparison to the Bulls' other options — is a plus. In addition, inserting Flowers might force this wobbly program to embrace a more physical approach; that's another bonus.

12. Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut. The N.C. State transfer gives the Huskies more athleticism at the position, but he's a complete and total unknown as a passer. The team's other options — including Tim Boyle, who played down the stretch in 2014 — fail to inspire any confidence.

Central Florida WR Tre'Quan Smith. The Knights must replace their top four wide receivers from a season ago, a group that accounted for 174 catches in 2014 — nearly three-fourths of the Knights' total receptions. Into the void steps Smith, a redshirt freshman who shined on UCF's scout team a year ago.

Central Florida WR Tristan Payton. And there's Payton, a four-star incoming freshman who switched his commitment from USC to UCF shortly before signing day. If he's ready to go come August, Payton should be a factor.

SMU QB Ben Hicks. Davis will get the starting nod come the opener, but don't doubt Chad Morris' willingness to give Hicks a shot should the Mustangs struggle offensively in September and October. He's the future at the position.

East Carolina TE Bryce Williams. It'd be easy to highlight Benkert. But keep tabs on Williams, a senior, thanks to the position-friendly tweaks implemented in Nichol's system. I was tempted to make him a first-team all-conference pick.

Temple DB Kareem Ali. As noted, there are no open spots on Temple's starting defense. But there will be room for a four-star freshman who held offers from power programs throughout the East, Southeast and Midwest.

Navy LB Micah Thomas. A year after contributing primarily on special teams as a freshman, Thomas is pegged as the Midshipmen's new starter at inside linebacker. While the outside pair in Navy's 3-4 defense remains unsettled – there are as many as five candidates battling for two spots – Thomas and junior Daniel Gonzales exited the spring as Navy's two starters in the middle.

Cincinnati RB Tion Green. The Bearcats love Mike Boone, and for good reason. But Tommy Tuberville and his staff are also high on Green, who missed time last season due to injuries but capped drills with two touchdowns in Cincinnati's spring game. It's the junior's time to make his mark.

Cincinnati OL Delonte Murray. The Bearcats may end up shifting senior Justin Murray from right tackle to the blind side, which would make sense. There still seems to be a place in the rotation — or the starting lineup — for Murray, a junior-college transfer with college-ready size.

Cincinnati offensive coordinator Eddie Gran. Long viewed as one of the nation's top recruiters, Gran is beginning to burnish his game-planning reputation as the leader of the Bearcats' effective offensive attack.

UCF offensive coordinator Brent Key. He'll be George O'Leary's eventual successor at UCF, barring a major surprise. If not, look for Key to get his shot elsewhere — and perhaps sooner rather than later.

Houston wide receivers coach Drew Mehringer. He spent six seasons as a student and graduate assistant under Tom Herman, following Houston's new hire from Rice to Iowa State to Ohio State. After spending last fall as the co-coordinator at James Madison, look for Mehringer to blossom as the Cougars' receivers coach.

Navy offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper. That Jasper has spent 16 seasons at Navy is a testament to his strong feelings for the institution and not a statement about his potential appeal as an FBS head coach. He's had opportunities, including one at Georgia Southern prior to last season, but Jasper has chosen to remain under Niumatalolo with the Midshipmen.

Tulane defensive line coach Kwahn Drake. A former graduate assistant with the Green Wave, Drake moved up to line coach last fall. Under Drake's tutelage, the front paced a defensive unit that finished third in the American and tied for 34th nationally in tackles for loss.

Memphis co-offensive coordinator Brad Cornelsen. After three commendable seasons as the Tigers' quarterbacks coach, Cornelsen added co-coordinator duties in January. That's a well-deserved title promotion: Cornelsen has done great work with his quarterbacks, notably turning Paxton Lynch from an unknown commodity into one of the league's best at the position as a sophomore.

Penn State at Temple, Sept. 5. The Owls haven't topped Penn State since 1941 — and only three times in 43 tries altogether — but Rhule has this team poised to make a run at the in-state power.

ECU at Florida, Sept. 12. This is more for the Gators, who will take on an ECU program that is rarely intimidated by a hostile road environment.

Cincinnati at Memphis, Sept. 24. An early cross-divisional tilt between two of the top teams in the conference.

Miami (Fla.) at Cincinnati, Oct. 1. Hosting the Hurricanes provides Cincinnati with the opportunity to make a statement in non-conference play.

Navy at Notre Dame, Oct. 10. Keep this in mind: Notre Dame is 2-3 under Brian Kelly in its first matchup following the Navy game. For the Irish, USC awaits a week later.

UCF at Cincinnati, Oct. 31. The Bearcats' home-field advantage is a huge bonus when it comes to a potential head-to-head tiebreaker with UCF in the East Division.

Navy at Memphis, Nov. 7. Based on my early projection, these two teams stand atop the West Division.

Army vs. Navy (in Philadelphia), Dec. 12. The annual end-of-year rivalry may end up factoring into the College Football Playoff, should the Midshipmen be in contention for an access-bowl berth on the final Saturday.

For the efforts of this exercise, let's play under the following rules:

While the American itself was only christened in 2013, this all-time all-conference team will include players from teams that played in the Big East Conference — rest in peace, Big East football, 1991-2012 — until its disintegration amid massive FBS realignment. Make sense? To cite an example below, Larry Fitzgerald is listed on this team despite the fact that Pittsburgh is now a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference; the Panthers were part of the Big East during Fitzgerald's career.

In addition, if any conference shift occurred during a player's career — as in the case of Miami (Fla.) or Virginia Tech, for example — he will be considered for the league in which he had his greatest or most memorable success. So the all-time American team wouldn't include Devin Hester, who began his career with the Hurricanes in the Big East but made his mark in the ACC.

The question, in shortened form: Can you name the nine active FBS head coaches who once served as an assistant under Urban Meyer? Extra credit was to be had for naming the two former assistants who were but are no longer FBS head coaches.

Tim Beckman (Illinois) was Meyer's defensive coordinator at Bowling Green. Kyle Whittingham (Utah) and Gary Andersen (Oregon State) coached for Meyer with the Utes. Steve Addazio (Boston College), Doc Holliday (Marshall), Dan McCarney (North Texas) and Charlie Strong (Texas) were Meyer assistants at Florida. Dan Mullen (Mississippi State) was an offensive assistant at Utah and Florida. And Tom Herman was most recently Meyer's offensive guru at Ohio State.

And the two others for extra credit: Gregg Brandon, who replaced Meyer at Bowling Green and now serves as the head coach at Colorado School of Mines, and Mike Sanford, formerly of UNLV, who is now the head coach at Indiana State.

The honor goes to Cincinnati, which has three assets in its corner in the push for an access bowl. The first is the non-conference slate: Cincinnati takes on Miami and BYU in October, providing the Bearcats with two chances outside of league play at impressing the selection committee.

The Bearcats also avoid Navy, perhaps the top team in the West, even if this could be viewed as a negative; a win against the Midshipmen would only help the team's postseason case. But missing out on a Navy matchup removes one potential hurdle to 10-plus wins, and also saves the Bearcats' defense from the wear of tear of taking on Niumatalolo's option offense.

Finally — and this most of all, obviously — is Cincinnati's overall talent level. The Bearcats have the league's best passing quarterback, as noted above, and the American's most explosive attack overall. The offensive skill talent likewise tops the conference. There are concerns on defense, a unit that ranked 98th nationally in yards allowed per play last fall, but an influx of young talent offsets any concerns over replacing seven starters.

But let's say this: Cincinnati's not going undefeated. There are losses on this schedule, whether inside of league action or out, even if the Bearcats should be at least somewhat disappointed with anything less than nine wins. Why does this matter? Because Boise State is out there to the west, and it's virtually impossible to imagine a scenario where the Broncos aren't fighting for 11 or 12 wins come the beginning of December.