The seventh ministerial meeting of the Arctic Council in May looked set be a mundane affair, with its focus on signing a new search-and-rescue agreement and handover of the chairmanship to Sweden.

But the atmosphere in Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, was electrified by the first visit to such a forum by the United States, courtesy of the secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, secretary of the interior Ken Salazar, and a host of other heavy-hitters.

The message was clear: the US is putting itself at the centre of the debate about the future of the far north at a time when a new oil and mineral "cold rush" is under way as global warming makes extraction more easy. And being the US, the soft diplomacy was backed up with a bit of symbolic hardware. A few weeks earlier two nuclear-powered submarines were sent to patrol 150 miles north of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska.

Meanwhile Russia – also on the eight-nation council – was happy to push off the agenda any idea that countries such as China could gain observer status.

The US navy move comes as Russia is said to have increased missile testing in the region and Norway has moved its main military base to the far north.

Meanwhile China has started to woo countries such as Greenland, which are rich in rare earth minerals needed for mobile phones and other hi-tech equipment.

The competing commercial interests in the Arctic are complicated by the lack of a comprehensive agreement on who owns what. Many countries are in the process of submitting competing land claims to the UN as part of its Law of the Sea Convention – a treaty as yet unsigned by the US.

Canada and others were also disturbed when Artur Chilingarov, a veteran Russian polar explorer, placed a flag on the Arctic seabed in 2007. He told reporters his mission was to show the Arctic was Russian, adding: "We must prove the north pole is an extension of the Russian landmass."

Canada took exception to the Russian move, seeing it as provocative, but Moscow dismissed the furore, insisting it was a theatrical gesture by a scientist hired by private companies to make the descent. But it is telling that the following year Chilingarov – also a member of the state parliament – was awarded a new title, Hero of the Russian Federation.

Concerns about a new cold war – if not just a cold rush – have led academics such as Rob Huebert, a professor of political science at the University of Calgary, to warn in a recent paper prepared for the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute that "an arms race may be beginning".

Huebert says he has heard the Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin, talking of the need to establish a "zone of peace" in the Arctic but sees contrary actions as well. "Not withstanding the public statements of peace and co-operation in the Arctic issued by the Arctic states, tThe strategic value of the region is growing. As this value grows, each state will attach a greater value to their own national interests in the region. The Arctic states may be talking co-operation, but they are preparing for conflict."

Meanwhile Admiral James Stavridis, Nato's supreme allied commander in Europe, in a foreword to a recent Whitehall Ppaper published by the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London, argued: "For now, the disputes in the north have been dealt with peacefully, but climate change could alter the equilibrium over the coming years in the race of temptation for exploitation of more readily accessible natural resources."

Stavridis believes military assets, such as coastguards, have an important role to play with international co-ordination in the area – but mainly for specialist assistance around commercial and other interests.

He added: "The cascading interests and broad implications stemming from the effects of climate change should cause today's global leaders to take stock, and unify their efforts to ensure the Arctic remains a zone of co-operation – rather than proceed down the icy slope towards a zone of competition, or worse a zone of conflict."

Huebert points out that as well as opening a new ultra-hi-tech operations centre inside a mountain at Reitan, in the far north of Norway, Oslo is also spending unprecedented money on new military hardware, not least five top-of-the-range frigates. The class of vessel is called Fridtjof Nansen, after the famous polar explorer, which perhaps indicates where the navy plans to deploy them.

Meanwhile Canada's then foreign minister, Lawrence Cannon, voiced confidence his nation would win the territory. "We will exercise sovereignty in the Arctic," he told his Russian counterpart in talks in Moscow.

But optimists say the fears are exaggerated and point to positive developments, not least Norway and Russia agreeing a mutually acceptable boundary line dividing up the Barents Sea.

A partnership between Russia, Norway, the US and Britain has been quietly and successfully working away at decommissioning nuclear submarines and tackling other radioactive waste problems in the Kola Peninsula and Arkhangelsk regions.

One former foreign minister told the Guardian: "We want to avoid complacency but all this alarmist talk of meltdown should be shunned. The Arctic is quite pacific. It is not a place of turmoil but an area of low tension."

However, Paul Berkman, director of the Arctic Ocean geopolitics programme at the Scott Polar Research Institute, believes the deluge of books and features highlighting potential problems cannot be dismissed as melodrama. "You have to ask why are these alarming and alarmist headlines being written and it may be there is unfinished business from the Cold War."

Whether hype or not, he argues that it is necessary to both promote cooperation and prevent conflict. "There is no room for complacency and while tensions are low there is opportunity to address the risks of political, economic and cultural instabilities that are inherent consequences of the environmental state-change in the Arctic Ocean."

Inuit leaders are already concerned that the talk of industrialisation and mineral wealth in the Arctic will increase tension.

Aqqaluk Lynge, former chairman of the indigenous peoples' forum, the Inuit Circumpolar Council, described himself as "nervous" about current developments.

"There is a military build-up and an increase in megaphone diplomacy … We do not want a return to the cold war," he said.

• This article was amended on 6 July 2011 to make clear that Lawrence Cannon is no longer the Canadian foreign minister.