If Labour want this election to be about values, the Tories want voters to think above all about who they would rather see in Downing Street. It is easy to see why. Throughout the last parliament my polling found a chunk of the electorate leaning towards Labour but who also thought David Cameron was the best available prime minister.

Conservatives have long hoped Ed Miliband would crumble in the intensity of the campaign, and that the prospect of seeing him in Downing Street would ultimately prove an insurmountable obstacle for many who would otherwise vote Labour.

Yet far from crumbling, Miliband has shown a good deal of resilience in the face of some rather unseemly attacks.

This is one of the reasons why, though most still think Cameron would do a better job, Miliband’s personal ratings have on some measures actually improved over the course of the campaign.

But I think there are other forces at work. Some voters who prefer Cameron to Miliband but Labour to the Tories are starting to make their minds up – in favour of Labour.

To resolve their cognitive dissonance they have to reconcile themselves to the choice of prime minister their vote implies; we are starting to hear people say in focus groups that Miliband has done better than they expected, or that at least he won’t be running the country all by himself.

If the Tories were expecting the contrast between Cameron and Miliband to work as a kind of secret weapon, they are still waiting for it to take effect. They have now broadened their attack to include the SNP, hoping that if the prospect of Miliband himself is not enough to put people off, the spectre of the Scots calling his shots will push some uncertain voters back to the Tories. There is still room for a late swing to the Conservatives, of course, but if undecided voters make up their mind to stick with the Tories, I suspect they will do so very late.

And, crucially, it will be the number of seats each party wins, rather than the national vote share, that will determine who gets to form the next government. It is sometimes observed that Labour are doing better in the crucial marginals than they are nationally, but the picture is more complicated than that.

Comparing my local snap shots with national polling at the time they were taken shows the Conservatives holding on to more seats overall against Labour than they would with a uniform national swing, but failing to gain seats that they would otherwise win from the Lib Dems.

At the same time, my polling has Labour winning fewer Tory and Lib Dem seats overall, and losing more to the SNP, than the national polls suggest ought to be the case. It is, in fact, the Lib Dems who are doing best in the marginals, holding on to more seats against Labour and (particularly) the Conservatives than they would with a uniform swing.

General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies Show all 36 1 /36 General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 4 May: Milibrand part 2 Russell Brand dramatically unveiled the second part of his interview with Ed Miliband, in which he agreed with the leader and then called on his YouTube viewers to vote Labour. David Cameron had described him as a "joke" who previously advocated not voting - but with Brand commanding more than a million YouTube subscribers that may come back to haunt the Tories. General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 3 May: #EdStone Labour leader Ed Miliband unveiled Labour's pledges carved into a stone plinth in Hastings. He said it showed his commitment to keep promises - but many mocked the "risible" stunt and said it would be the "tombstone" for Labour's election hopes. PA General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 2 May: Ukip candidate suspended A Ukip candidate who described himself as “unapologetically politically incorrect pro-British” was suspended after suggesting Shadow Minister Luciana Berger had split loyalties because she is Jewish. In one Twitter message Jack Sen, standing in West Lancashire, said: “Protect child benefits? If you had it your way you'd send the £ to Poland/ Israel.” Twitter/@jacksenukip General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 1 May: 'It's all about my career... I mean country' Labour jumped on another David Cameron gaffe after the PM said on the campaign trail that the election was a “career defining” moment when he meant to say “country defining”. Ed Miliband's party pounced, saying the remarks were proof Mr Cameron “puts his career before the country”. “It’s all about Dave,” the party tweeted. PA General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 30 April: The Sun has got two hats on The Sun revealed who it was supporting in the election - both the Tories and, in Scotland, the SNP. While the UK edition of the newspaper called on the British public to vote Conservative so as to "stop [the] SNP running the country", The Scottish Sun announced its support for Nicola Sturgeon's party saying it will "fight harder for Scotland's interests at Westminster". General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 29 April: Complacent Conservative? Tory Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith failed to turn up to hustings in his own constituency following a 'late change in his schedule'. Wags observed that it was ironic given the minister has ramped up monetary sanctions against people who do not attend job interviews or JobCentre meetings. PA General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 28 April: Offensively independent An independent candidate standing in Northern Ireland proudly came up with the least 'politically correct' leaflet of the campaign. Susan-Anne White declared she would criminalise adultery and homosexuality, end sex education, reinstate corporal punishment and much more. General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 27 April: NI minister 'homophobia' Jim Wells, the DUP Health Minister of Northern Ireland, resigned after saying children are more likely to be abused by gay couples. He had said: “You don't bring a child up in a homosexual relationship. That a child is far more likely to be abused and neglected.” He said he was standing down to spend more time with his family. Paul McErlane/Getty Images General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 26 April: The Ed and Boris bust-up In what was widely hailed as the best bit of election TV so far, Ed Miliband and Boris Johnson clashed head-to-head in angry scenes live on the Andrew Marr Show, forcing their usually genial host to intervene and tell the pair of them to "shut up". The increasingly animated London Mayor repeated personal attacks over Mr Miliband 'stabbing his brother in the back', while the Labour leader got in some jibes of his own about Mr Johnson's Eton education. Reuters General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 25 April: Political football David Cameron’s football-loving credentials received a kicking at a campaign event in Croydon after he suggested to the audience he supported West Ham- despite previously claiming he was a huge Aston Villa fan. When asked about his sudden change in loyalty, Cameron later said he was still a Villa fan and blamed the slip up on a 'brain fade'. PA General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 24 April: Migrant crisis made political Ed Miliband was branded 'shameful' by Downing Street after he said David Cameron was partly responsible for the deaths of hundreds of migrants in the Mediterranean. The Labour leader said the Prime Minister’s role in creating instability in Libya had contributed to thousands of north Africans drowning in the Mediterranean as they try to flee the crisis. A senior Tory called the comments 'deeply provocative' Getty Images General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 23 April: IFS accusations Voters are being kept 'in the dark' by all the main parties over future spending cuts and tax rises, the influential Institute for Fiscal studies said. A detailed study of the party manifestos by the think-tank concluded that none of the Lib Dems, Labour, the Conservatives or SNP had provided "anything like full details" on plans to cut the deficit over the next five-year Parliament. Getty General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 22 April: The not-so-Green Party A group of leading scientists and campaigners rounded on the Green Party, accusing it of turning its back on its main mission by largely ignoring the crucial issue of climate change in the run-up to the general election. Critics said that although the Green Party manifesto contains plenty of references to policies on global warming, the party was 'grievously at fault' for leaving the subject largely unspoken in campaigning by the party and its leader, Natalie Bennett. Getty Images General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 21 April: Wikipedia edits Tory party chairman Grant Shapps was accused of editing the Wikipedia pages of his Conservative rivals and allegedly changing his own page to delete embarrassing references to his past. A Wikipedia administrator reported and suspended an account called 'Contribsx' on suspicion it was being used by Mr Shapps or 'someone acting on his behalf'. Getty Images General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 20 April: Dodgy Tory donors? The Conservatives were forced to return more than £50,000 in donations from a businesswoman whose husband was convicted of tax fraud in the US. Beatrice Tollman, who donated £20,000 as recently as early April, was herself charged with conspiracy to evade millions of dollars’ worth of tax in the US, charges that were dismissed by a judge in 2008 General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 19 April: Miliband a hit among the hens Ed Miliband was described as "the stripper" by a group of women on a hen party in Chester after they spotted the parked-up Labour battle bus. But not everyone saw it as statesmanlike behaviour, some saying it was 'cringe-worthy' and others reporting he looked 'absolutely terrified' YouTube/Chester Chronicle General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 18 April: DUP on gay marriage A right-wing Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland politician thanked Nick Clegg for 'reminding' voters that they are seeking to abolish same-sex marriage. After the Lib Dems set up a satirical website accusing the DUP of wanting to 'reject gay rights', North Belfast MP Nigel Dodds said he was grateful to Mr Clegg 'for reminding people of the pivotal role the DUP can play' Joe Raedle/Getty Images General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 17 April: Labour 'metaphors' A Labour candidate was forced to apologise for “getting carried away with colourful metaphors” after making a joke about being caught in a threesome with Ed Miliband and a goat. Clive Lewis, a former reporter for BBC Look East who is now standing in Norwich South, said "anything could happen" when asked if he could be beaten by the Greens. After the Miliband example caused a bit of a backlash he added: "If anyone was genuinely offended then I'm sincerely sorry for that." Rex General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 16 April: Ukip candidate calls Islam 'evil cult' A Ukip candidate standing for Parliament faced being sacked by the party after describing Islam as an “evil cult”. Stephen Latham, who is fighting the West Bromwich East seat, made the remarks in a Facebook post. He later said: "I wouldn’t have meant it about Islam itself. It would have been about the people causing problems." General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 15 April: Labour candidate 'forgets manifesto' A video emerged of a Labour candidate suffering a terrifically awkward 'brain fade' and failing to name her party’s key policies. During an interview with local website The Chiswick Calendar, Ruth Cadbury (running for Brentford and Isleworth) froze: "Um… I can’t remember my key… I do need to check… I’m reading them every day... er… sorry… Labour’s key policies..." The Chiswick Calendar General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 14 April: Tory candidate 'wristbands' There were calls and a petition for the Conservative parliamentary candidate for Cambridge to stand down, after she said that mental health patients could wear colour-coded wristbands to identify their conditions. Chamali Fernando was accused of showing 'prejudice' and 'remind[ing] us how far we have to go' by mental health campaigners Twitter/Richard Taylor General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 13 April: Smarter than a 10-year-old? Former PR man David Cameron is used to spinning his way out of trouble against the most challenging interviewers - yet came completely unstuck on a visit to a primary school for Newsround. With his guard down, 10-year-old Reema asked: 'If you could pick one politician apart from yourself to win who would it be and why?' Cameron said it was the 'best' question he'd had so far on the campaign, um-ed, ah-ed and failed to give a clear answer. Getty Images General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 9 April: Ukip's porn star candidate A mini-scandal surrounded Ukip's Bristol branch when it emerged the vice chair had an unusual second job as a veteran porn star. The party insisted it was happy to support candidates regardless of what they did in their spare time, adding proudly that 'no other party' would have taken John Langley - aka 'Johnny Rockard'. General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 8 April: Ed Balls on non-doms No sooner had Ed Miliband announced a popular Labour policy to scrap the non-dom tax status, a video emerged of Ed Balls explaining how such a move would end up costing Britain more. General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 5 April: Tories taking care of business (owners) In an interview with this newspaper Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, revealed that a senior Conservative minister told a Liberal Democrat cabinet colleague: 'You take care of the workers and we’ll take care of the bosses' in a private Whitehall meeting to discuss the Coalition Government’s priorities. Getty General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 3 April: Nicola Sturgeon 'memo' Nicola Sturgeon was forced to deny telling the French ambassador she wanted the Tories to win the election in May in preference to Labour, after a 'memo' to that effect was leaked to the Telegraph. PA General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 2 April: Nigel Farage on HIV UKIP leader Nigel Farage sparked controversy during the ITV Leader's Debate 2015 for saying that immigrants who were HIV positive should not be able to enter the country and use the NHS for free. Ken McKay/ITV via Getty Images General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 29 March: Labour mugs Senior Labour MP Diane Abbott was among those who led a backlash against a mug being sold by the party celebrating its new commitment to a tough immigration system. General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 23 March: Ukip's Atkinson expelled Janice Atkinson, an MEP and once one of Ukip's most senior figures, was expelled after she was found to have brought the party into disrepute. Ms Atkinson’s chief of staff was secretly recorded appearing to ask the manager of a restaurant in Margate to more than treble the £950 cost of a meal before Ukip’s spring conference. Nigel Farage later said the claims 'couldn't look worse'. Chris Radburn/PA Wire General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 8 January: 'Meet the Ukippers' Ukip councillor Rozanne Duncan was expelled from the party for saying she had a problem with black people because there was 'something about their faces' during filming for the BBC documentary 'Meet the Ukippers' BBC General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 20 November: Emily Thornberry and the white van Labour front bench MP Emily Thornberry was forced to resign after tweeted a photo of a house in Rochester adorned with three England flags and a white van out the front, which saw her accused of holding working class voters in 'contempt'. PA General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 22 October: Ukip Calypso The former BBC Radio 1 DJ Mike Read was forced to apologise for "unintentionally causing offence" with his song Ukip Calypso and asked his record company to withdraw it. The song, which the Surrey-born disc jockey sang in a mock Jamaican accent, had been branded “racist”. PA General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 7 October: Forgetful Boris During his Ask Boris show on LBC prior to the Clacton by-election last year, the London Mayor was asked by Nick Ferrari who the Tory candidate was. Boris replied: "We've got a fantastic guy called - oh he’s brilliant… I don’t know... he is superb man .. Stirling? Girling? Something like that… what’s he called? You tell me." It was Giles Watling, Boris. PA/Getty General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 18 August: Janice Atkinson The senior Ukip MEP was forced to apologise after she was recorded by BBC South East Today describing a Thai constituent as 'a Ting Tong from somewhere'. It wasn't enough to see her disowned by the party - that came later when she was caught in a newspaper sting relating to expenses Facebook/Maria Pizzey General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 16 May (2014): Nigel Farage on LBC Nigel Farage's car-crash performance on LBC was one of his worst in recent years, and culminated in him saying he would be 'uncomfortable' with a Romanian family moving in next door. The gaffe later saw Ukip take out a full-page newspaper advert insisting it was not a racist party. General election 2015: The worst gaffes and controversies 20 March (2014): 'Patronising' Grant Shapps Grant Shapps, the Conservative chairman, came under pressure from across the political spectrum after a 'patronising' tweet in which he suggested Budget measures to halve bingo tax and cut the price of beer by 1p would 'help hardworking people do more of the things they enjoy' Getty

As I always stress, these are not predictions. But one notable finding from my research during the campaign is that Labour seem to be winning the ground war. Though there is no clear relationship between the level of campaign activity and the parties’ vote shares, in Tory-Labour marginals people are more likely to say they have had literature, direct mail, phone calls or doorstep visits from Labour than from the Conservatives.

It would be unfair to think of this as a failure of the Tory campaign and its organisers. As Donald Rumsfeld observed, you go to war with the army you have. If the blue army is being outgunned that is not a matter of logistics, but because it lacks recruits. And that would not be surprising for a party that has been unable to reach very far beyond its core support for more than 20 years.

Also, it is not just the number of people knocking on doors that matters, but what they have to say when the doors are opened.

Some who see the Tory message as rather narrow and negative are inclined to blame its architect, Lynton Crosby. But isn’t this also unfair? Lynton is a professional, brought in to achieve the best result he can with the material at his disposal. Has he not brought discipline, organisation and consistency?

You can quibble with the balance of themes he has chosen – as I have noted more than once before. There has been too much emphasis from the Tories on the opposing leader’s weaknesses (or, in this case, the deals he may or may not do to get himself into office), which suggests to voters a party that can’t have much to say for itself. But if after five years in government the Conservative Party’s policy advantage is confined to the economy and the public finances – crucial areas, but not, as far as voters are concerned, everything – that is hardly the fault of an Australian consultant.