That’s not necessarily guaranteed, considering politicians haven’t even passed a law to extend the program, which loses authorization on July 31, much less reform it. They’ve extended the program six times in the last ten months, but none of the legislation to actually fix the ailing program stands any chance of passing anytime soon.

If there is a lapse (and there have been several in the last year of extensions) it would prevent insurers from writing new policies. Since banks demand flood insurance policies on homes with mortgages, this could slow down home sales.

The last time Congress passed a full five-year reauthorization in 2012, the measure raised flood insurance premiums tenfold in places like the Keys. There was an uproar in coastal communities, and the changes were mostly walked back two years later. Since then, premiums aren’t allowed to rise more than 18 percent annually for residential properties and 25 percent for commercial properties.

But the NFIP is still deeply in debt, and experts say risk-based assessment is one of the best ways out.

Moving to risk-based assessment is like “moving from the 20 yard zone to the end zone,” said Jason Wolf, managing partner of Fort Lauderdale-based property insurance law firm Koch Parafinczuk Wolf Susen. “This is a game changer if it’s done right and done on the scale that’s needed.”

The NFIP is also tackling the issue by purchasing reinsurance, basically insurance for itself, for the first time, encouraging homeowners to get an elevation certificate to better assess their risk and chasing a “moonshot” goal of doubling the number of people with flood insurance over the next five years. That number includes those with private insurance, a quickly growing segment of the flood insurance market.Florida has more flood insurance policies than any other state. The vast majority are through the NFIP; only eight percent of flood insurance policies in 2017 were from private companies, according to an Insurance Journal analysis.

The number of policies they write has spiked considerably in recent years. There was a tenfold jump in primary personal flood insurance policies in Florida from 2015 (the first year the state started tracking it) to 2016: insurers wrote 965 policies in 2015 and at least 9,667 in 2016. And nationwide, Florida was the fastest growing private flood insurance market by premium dollar from 2016 to 2017.

To Doug Jones, managing partner of Coral Gables-based JAG Insurance Group, those numbers show Florida’s private insurance industry is already starting to help bear the state’s flood insurance burden. The broker said about 20 percent of the policies his firm writes these days are with private insurers.

For example, he said, a brand new condo in Brickell with a six-figure settlement from Hurricane Irma flood damage has a “very nominal increase” in premiums this year.

“It’s a strong showing that they’re in it to win it,” Jones said.

Private policies, which can be based off of FEMA flood maps and NFIP prices or on internal models from insurance companies, don’t always offer the exact same coverage options as the government plans.

“The advantage to the consumer from a private market is not always saving money but also the ability to buy policies they can’t under the NFIP,” said Jim Watje of Wright National Flood Insurance Services, one of Florida’s 25 firms writing private flood insurance policies. He said his firm has seen increasing growth in the private flood market since they starting writing private policies three years ago.