Among the dozens of statistics that comprise the respected metric concocted by college basketball analytics guru Ken Pomeroy — block rate, defensive efficiency, adjusted tempo, Pythagorean winning percentage — is one called, simply, “luck.”

San Diego State currently ranks 336th out of 351 Division I teams.

It is meant to measure, Pomeroy writes, “the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies … Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).”

Does it also reflect if your senior captain gets pneumonia?


If the Aztecs thought nothing else could go wrong this month, losing three straight close games in which opponents banked in at least one 3-pointer, now Trey Kell has been diagnosed with bronchial pneumonia and is questionable for today’s 8 p.m. tip against Colorado State at Viejas Arena.

Kell didn’t practice before Saturday’s game at New Mexico and The Pit of Misery (dilly, dilly), complaining of a bad cold, and he hadn’t shown improvement after sitting out Monday as well. So they sent him to the doctor, who discovered a form of walking pneumonia. He was prescribed antibiotics and rest.

Kell didn’t participate in Tuesday’s practice, sitting on the side with a hoodie on. Dutcher said his availability for tonight will be a game-time decision.

“They’ll check his lungs (to see) if they’re clear enough to play,” Dutcher said. “I know Trey will want to play. But it won’t be up to him.”


It might explain Kell’s lackluster performances lately. He had five points on 2-of-14 shooting in the three-point loss at Boise State two Saturdays ago and missed an open 3-pointer with just over a minute left. He had five points on 2-of-8 shooting at New Mexico last Saturday, clanking three 3s in the closing minutes.

After missing one game in his first three seasons, Kell has been afflicted with a variety of freak maladies: badly spraining his ankle when landing on an opponent’s foot against Washington State, a debilitating thigh bruise from an errant knee fighting over a screen against Cal, now pneumonia as a fit, healthy 21-year-old. He’s missed two games, parts of two others and is facing the prospect of more down time.

“We won’t use that as an excuse, and neither will Trey,” Dutcher said. “I’ve said this before when Trey is hurt. He never complains about it. If he can go, he gets out there and gives you everything he can. And if he has an off night, he doesn’t use an injury or illness as an excuse.”

It’s a similar riddle for the Aztecs as a whole. Are their late-game frailties a function of bad luck or bad execution? Coincidence, or consequence?


They went from winning 164 consecutive games when leading with five minutes to go two seasons ago to losing three such games in a row. You have to go back 30 years to find the last time the Aztecs dropped three straight by four points or fewer.

“I feel like we should have won the games anyway,” freshman Matt Mitchell said. “I don’t believe in the unlucky part. I think there were things we could have done down the stretch to close out games on the road and at home.”

Everyone had their share of misses down the stretch, but Devin Watson ended up with shots to tie in the final 30 seconds of all three games. He missed an open 3 at Boise State, had a layup blocked against Fresno State and had a short jumper in the lane rim out at New Mexico.

“I talked to Devin about that today,” Dutcher said. “I said: ‘You’re the point guard. You have to make the play that’s in front of you.’ If I say pass more and he’s wide open, then I’ve done him a disservice. If I tell him to shoot the ball and he’s covered, I’ve done him a disservice. You put the ball in your point guard’s hands, and then he makes the play that leads to the outcome.


“I told him I trust him. That’s why the ball is in his hands.”

The scheduling gods, at least, have taken pity on the Aztecs. Their next three opponents — Colorado State, UNLV and Air Force — might be the only teams in the Mountain West in a worse way.

Colorado State had leading scorer Prentiss Nixon on crutches with a sprained ankle last week, losing to Air Force at home and then getting outscored 14-0 to close the game at home against UNLV (after leading by nine inside four minutes to go). The Rebels, despite a hyped influx of talent, lost eight straight games against the betting spread and are 0-3 at home. And Air Force canceled Saturday’s home game against Fresno State due to the federal government shutdown.

“After New Mexico, there was frustration in the locker room,” said Dutcher, whose team’s RPI plunged from the low 60s to 120 in less than a week, one spot above Canisius. “And there should be. I don’t want a team that feels they played well and that’s good enough, they just beat us. I want them frustrated, and they were frustrated.


“This team likes to be challenged, so we’re challenging them. We’re not saying what is happening is all right and just trying to keep their spirits up. This team has a great resolve about it. They know they’re good and they want to get better.”

Are they merely unlucky? Or is an 11-7 overall record — 6-7 against teams in the top 250 of RPI — and seventh place in the Mountain West at 3-4 a fair representation of this group?

“We know we’re a great team and have great players,” Watson said after the 79-75 loss at New Mexico despite leading most of the game. “We just have to finish, you know. We have to get those chippy wins. We know we’re a great team.”

Colorado State at SDSU

Wednesday: 8 p.m. at Viejas Arena


On the air: CBSSN/1360-AM, 101.5-FM

Records: CSU is 10-11, 3-5; SDSU is 11-7, 3-4

Series history: SDSU leads 25-13, including a 77-68 win in Fort Collins, Colo., on Jan. 2 that ended a three-game losing streak to the Rams. CSU won 78-77 at Viejas Arena last year.

Rams update: They are coming off a pair of rough losses, both at home – 76-71 against Air Force, and 79-74 against UNLV after leading by nine inside four minutes to go. The Rams have struggled without all-conference players Gian Clavell and Emmanuel Omogbo, and now leading scorer Prentiss Nixon (17.9 ppg) is doubtful with a sprained ankle. As bad as they have been at home during the conference season, the Rams have won three straight on the road: at San Jose State, at Utah State, at Wyoming. Coach Larry Eustachy has repeatedly said, with only one senior (Che Bob) on the roster, he considers this a “60-game season” with an eye toward next year. Junior G J.D. Paige, who had a season-high 22 points in the first meeting against SDSU, is the only other player averaging double figures (10.6). Without Nixon, the Rams went big against UNLV and started 6-8 forward Deion James.


Aztecs update: Twenty-two days after playing in Fort Collins, Colo., they are both vastly different teams. The Rams were 7-0 at home; now they’ve now lost four straight at Moby Arena. The Aztecs had an RPI in the 60s and had aspirations of challenging for the conference title; now their RPI is 120 and they’re in seventh place after losing three straight. In their most recent games, these two teams combined to be outscored 27-2 down the stretch. The Aztecs had one of their better shooting games behind the arc in the first meeting, finishing 9 of 20. Six different players made 3s, including Jeremy Hemsley going 3 of 3. Said coach Brian Dutcher: “I’m sure when they’re watching tape, they’re saying: ‘They’ll never make that many 3s against us this time.’” Hemsley, as he did when Trey Kell missed games earlier this season, is expected to start if doctors rule out Kell due to pneumonia.

Next up: at UNLV, Saturday at 7 p.m. (CBSSN)


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mark.zeigler@sduniontribune.com; Twitter: @sdutzeigler