“Listen, I always say success and failure is on the toss of one coin.”



Brendan Rodgers may be explaining the unpredictability of football, but right now both sides appear to be working in Leicester City’s favour.



His side have now won their last five Premier League games, scoring 17 goals and conceding just one, and while no-one is talking about them as serious title contenders, the fact is that after 13 games they are ahead of champions Manchester City in second place in the table, and they are there on merit.



A huge part of this has been how clinical they have been in front of goal. Their expected goals (xG) figure for the season — how many times they would be expected to score based on the quality of their chances — is 19.61. They have scored 31 times, more than the league leaders Liverpool (30) and second only to Manchester City (37). That difference of 11.39 between their xG and their actual goals is at least twice that of...