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Reports that David Cameron is planning to hold an in / out EU referendum on the same day as next year's National Assembly election are leading to speculation that the Conservatives and Ukip could win enough seats to force Labour out of office.

Some in Welsh Labour fear that the greatly increased turnout that would be expected if the two polls both take place on May 5, 2016, would favour the right wing parties.

Last month, we reported how some pro-EU Conservatives were pressing the Prime Minister to fix the date of the referendum for next May.

Claims Mr Cameron wants referendum and elections on same day

They argue that the London Mayor and London Assembly elections, also taking place on May 5, would ensure a big turnout in the UK capital, where support for remaining in the EU is higher than in other parts of England.

Now the Daily Mail has claimed that Mr Cameron is prepared to reject the advice of the Electoral Commission and hold the referendum and elections all on the same day.

The Mail story said: “David Cameron has cleared the decks for a referendum on Europe as early as May 5 next year.

“He overruled advice from the Electoral Commission that the vote should not be held then because it would clash with English local elections and major elections in Scotland, Wales and London.

“Tory whips have also told MPs that Mr Cameron is considering a referendum campaign that could last as little as 16 weeks.”

Could be increased turnout for Assembly election

The Electoral Commission said the lesson of last year’s Scottish independence referendum was that holding a poll on such an important constitutional issue on a separate day from any other elections helped both administrators and campaigners plan their activity more effectively and gave voters space to engage with the issues.

It warned that the issues surrounding EU membership were too broad to be wrapped up with the other major elections, adding: “A referendum on an issue as important as the UK’s membership of the European Union should not be held on the same day as the other polls.”

But the Prime Minister’s preferred option is said to be to complete negotiations about the UK’s future relationship with the EU by Christmas, and to hold the referendum in May.

One spin-off of such a scenario could be an increased turnout for the Assembly election in Wales, with the Conservatives and Ukip benefitting.

A Welsh Labour source told us: “A decision to hold the referendum on the same day as the Assembly election would be a big personal victory for Andrew RT Davies.

'The pressure on Carwyn is increasing by the day'

"If this does happen, it would be a big blow for Welsh Labour and boost Davies’ chances of becoming First Minister in a future coalition Welsh Government.

“With the Tories now sniffing power in Wales for the first time, the pressure on Carwyn is increasing by the day.”

The source said: “Many people who in the past have not bothered to vote in an Assembly election would do so if it was held on the same day as the EU referendum. A high proportion of such voters would be anti-devolution and anti-EU.

“The Conservatives and Ukip would be the parties to benefit. Last year, Ukip came within 5,000 votes of beating Labour to get most votes in Wales during the European Parliament election. Labour can’t afford to be complacent.”

'More people would be expected to go to the polls'

Labour and Plaid Cymru have stated publicly that it would be wrong to hold the EU referendum on the same day as the Assembly election, while Ukip MEP Nathan Gill has backed the idea of holding both polls on May 5.

A senior Welsh Conservative source said it was “far too early” to be discussing the likely date for the referendum, pointing out that the party’s manifesto commitment is to hold the referendum before the end of 2017. But the source did not oppose calling the referendum for next May.

Former Wales Office special adviser David Taylor, who now runs his own political consultancy, said: “If, as appears to be the case, the Prime Minister is aiming to complete his renegotiation in time to hold the EU referendum on the same day as Welsh Assembly, police commissioner and other elections next May, it will undoubtedly have profound consequences on the nature of the Assembly campaign.

“Assembly election turnout is generally around 40%, compared to the 66% turnout at the recent general election.

'Difficult for politicians making the case against it'

"If held on the same day as the EU referendum, far more people would be expected to go to the polls so we would likely see the largest ever Assembly turnout – undoubtedly a good thing as it gives the next Assembly more legitimacy.

“The referendum date is still obviously very much dependent on the timetable and success of his renegotiation, but if the Prime Minister is determined to press ahead for May 2016, I think it’s incredibly difficult for politicians making the case against it.

"If it saves money and is likely to increase turnout across the board, he’s on to a winner.

“It’s inevitable a situation like this will arise sooner or later in an era of multiple elections and referenda.

"How do you make the argument that after 17 years of devolution the Welsh electorate is not sophisticated enough to distinguish between different votes?

“Welsh political leaders must be careful also not to be seen to obsess about matters of political process.

"Those who have done so in the past, instead of focusing on the issues that people really care about, have paid a price at the ballot box.”