

Political TV ad buys are up nearly 90 percent over the same period during the last midterm election in 2014, according to a report published Monday by the Wesleyan Media Project in partnership with the Center for Responsive Politics.

A majority of the ads bought by outside groups targeting House and Senate races were run by “dark money” groups, which don’t disclose any of their donors, much of which was never reported to the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

Special elections and contested primaries were the main drivers of the increase in TV ads, according to the study, which analyzed ad buys from January 2017 through May 3, 2018.

About $65 million was spent on roughly 150,000 ads in House and Senate special elections this cycle in Montana, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Alabama.

“So far, the 2018 cycle suggests that TV advertising is alive and well as a campaign tactic, as special elections and hotly contested primaries have driven TV ad totals well above the 2014 benchmark for this same time period,” Erika Franklin Fowler, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project, said.

Overall, outside groups have funded about 43 percent of TV ads airing in Senate races and a third of those in House races.

Outside Group Donor Disclosure in House Races

Outside Group Ads Airings Est. Cost (in Millions) Percent of Ads Full 6,671 $3.2 12.1% Partial 11,081 $5.5 20.2% None 37,232 $12.8 67.7%

Outside Group Donor Disclosure in Senate Races

Outside Group Ads Airings Est. Cost (in Millions) Percent of Ads Full 23,075 $6.2 26.0% Partial 14,572 $5.0 16.4% None 51,158 $16.7 57.6%

Figures are from January 1, 2017 to May 3, 2018. Numbers include broadcast television. SOURCE: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project. CLICK HERE for a description of the difference between a partial and fully nondisclosing group. In the table, “Full” means the outside group discloses its sources of funding to the FEC.

Dark Money

Most of the TV ads purchased by outside groups — or two out of every three ads — came from a “dark money” group, according to the study.

These groups — which tend to be 501(c)(4) social welfare organizations that are not supposed to have politics as their primary purpose and are not required to disclose their donors — tend to spend heavily during the long run-up to an election. That’s because the groups can run ads that mention a candidate and reference an issue, such as health care or taxes, as a way to demonstrate either their support or opposition to a particular candidate without saying “vote for” or “vote against.”

Such ads only have to be reported to the FEC 30 days before a primary or 60 days before the general election, making them an effective way for nominally apolitical groups to run stealth political ads.

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During the 2014 midterms, groups like the Koch-linked Americans for Prosperity bought tens of thousands of ads before they ever reported any spending to the FEC. This report shows a similar trend, with AFP having run more than 15,000 ads in six critical Senate races and two gubernatorial races at an estimated cost of $5.4 million, while only having reported $44,643 to the FEC for their activity in a Pennsylvania race for a U.S. House seat.

Similarly, Majority Forward — a nondisclosing 501(c)(4) linked to Democratic leadership in the Senate — has only reported $37,461 in two Senate contests, even though the ad data in the report shows the group has run more than 5,700 spots in six Senate races at an estimated cost of $1.2 million.

Democrats often decry the way that well-funded conservative dark money groups use the FEC’s reporting windows to engage in stealth political spending, but Majority Forward has shown a propensity to adopt the same practices.

The study also found an increase in TV ad-buys for state races. Among gubernatorial races, the number of ads had doubled from about 174,000 to 350,000 over the same period in the 2014 and 2018 cycles.

Top 10 Group Advertisers in Federal, Gubernatorial Races

Sponsor Ads Airing Est. Cost (in Millions) Party Lean Races American Action Network 16,056 $4.6 R House (CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA49, CO-06, FL-18, FL-26, IA-01, IA-02, ID-01, IL-12, IL-13, IL-17, KS-03, ME-02, MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, NC-11, NE-02, NV-03, NY-21, NY-22, NY-23, NY-24, NY-27, OH-10, PA-16, PA-17, TX-23, VA-10, WI-01, WI-03) Americans For Prosperity 15,100 $5.4 R Senate (IN, MO, MT, ND, VA, WI); Governor (VA, WI) Senate Majority PAC 9,968 $3.6 D Senate (IN, MO, MT, ND, WV, WI) Senate Leadership Fund 9,903 $2.5 R Senate (AL) Congressional Leadership Fund 8,457 $4.6 R House (GA-06, MT-01, PA-18) Save My Care 6,967 $2.2 D Senate (AZ, NV); Governor (CT); House (AK-01, AZ-02, CA-21, CA-49, ME-02, NV-02, NJ-03, OH-01, OH-12, OH-16) Majority Forward 5,726 $1.2 D Senate (AZ, IN, MT, ND, NV, WV) Restoration PAC 5,579 $1.9 R Senate (MT,WV, WI) State Solutions, Inc. 4,823 $3.7 R Governor (IL) All About Florida 4,711 $2.2 D Governor (FL)

Figures are from January 1, 2017 to May 3, 2018. Numbers include broadcast television. SOURCE: Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

Primaries

May primary races have brought an influx of TV ad-buys including those from outside groups.

In Indiana, three candidates running for the Republican nomination for Senate — Luke Messer, Todd Rokita and Mike Braun — aired almost 21,000 ads. Outside groups bought another 8,200 ads.

In West Virginia, coal magnate and GOP outsider Don Blankenship bought over 10,000 ads in his underdog bid to secure the party’s Senate nomination. That’s more than the two front-runners — Rep. Evan Jenkins and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey — have aired combined (9,000 ads).

Read the full report here.



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