OTTAWA—Canadians are broadly dissatisfied with their options for prime minister in the lead up to October’s federal election, according to a new poll by Forum Research shared with the Toronto Star.

The leaders of the three major political parties have a net disapproval rating, with just 34 per cent of respondents saying they approve of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s performance. A total of 56 per cent of respondents say they disapprove of the prime minister’s job performance.

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer had similar numbers, with 33 per cent saying they approve of his work as opposition leader, while 45 per cent disapproved. Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the New Democrats, had just 23 per cent saying they approve of his performance while 40 per cent disapproved.

Only Elizabeth May, the Green party leader, had a positive net approval rating — with 44 per approving her performance and 22 per cent disapproving.

“The leaders are fairly unpopular, except for Elizabeth May,” said William Schatten, vice-president of Forum Research, in an interview Tuesday.

“That’s not great news for the Liberals, right? It’s dividing the vote on the left now between arguably three parties, the Liberals, the NDP and the Greens. So this benefits the Conservatives.”

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Nationwide, Forum puts the Conservatives ahead with 34 per cent – although their lead over the governing Liberals is almost within the margin of error, with 30 per cent saying they support Trudeau’s party. The NDP and the Greens are tied for third at 13 per cent each, with the Bloc Québécois (6 per cent) and Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party (4 per cent) rounding out the list.

But the Conservative numbers in seat-rich Ontario should give Scheer cause for concern, Schatten said.

“The Conservatives are not doing very well in Ontario,” Schatten said.

Schatten speculated that Premier Doug Ford, who has seen his popularity wane during his first year at Queen’s Park, is hurting the federal party in the province that’s key to the Conservative chances to form government.

That could be a driving factor in Ford’s decision to recess Queen’s Park until after the federal election, Schatten said.

“Doug Ford is not very popular right now at the provincial level,” Schatten said. “The Liberals and the left are really taking advantage of that talking point right now, and that point is really resonating with residents of Ontario. The Conservatives are just not doing well in Ontario.”

Despite that, if an election were held today, Forum still projects the Conservatives to win the most seats — 151, compared to 134 for the Liberals, 27 for the NDP, and 23 for the Bloc Québécois. Seat projections are difficult to accurately project, however, as broad national support does not necessarily translate into winning ridings in Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system.

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A senior Conservative source said last week that even if the party wins the most seats, as Forum projects, it’s not clear that it could form a minority government. The Conservatives worry that a struggling NDP, lagging far behind in fundraising and popular support, would have no choice but to prop up a Liberal minority government.

Using interactive voice response telephone calls, the Forum poll was conducted between May 31 and June 1, and surveyed 1,633 voting-age Canadians. The polling firm considers their results accurate within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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