Obama has widened his lead in Franklin County, Ohio; McCain has gained ground in Hillsborough County, Fla. Poll: Obama up in Ohio, tied in Florida

Sen. John McCain has improved his odds of capturing one of Florida’s most competitive counties at the same time a crucial Ohio battleground seems increasingly out of reach, according to a new Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll.

While Sen. Barack Obama has widened his lead in Ohio’s Franklin County, where Columbus is located, McCain has gained ground in Hillsborough County, which includes the city of Tampa and is one of the Sunshine State’s most competitive areas.


McCain trails Obama in Hillsborough by just two points, 46 percent to 44 percent. That represents a four-point improvement for McCain since Politico’s last Hillsborough survey, conducted October 12, which showed Obama leading 47 percent to 41 percent.

But Obama has strengthened his standing in Ohio’s Franklin County, where he currently holds an 11-point lead over McCain, outpacing the Republican nominee by 51 percent to 40 percent. Politico’s previous poll of Franklin County, conducted October 13, showed a closer race there, with Obama ahead by just five percentage points, 45 percent to 40 percent.

According to the Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll, Obama leads statewide in Ohio by 52 percent to 42 percent.

In Florida, the statewide survey shows Obama with a one-point lead, with 48 percent of poll respondents naming him as their choice for president, compared with 47 percent who chose McCain.

“It’s tightened a little bit in Hillsborough and it’s tightened a little bit statewide,” said InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery. “It would still be leaning Obama, in my opinion, both the county and the state, but tightening.”

Obama’s lead in Franklin County comes in large part from his strength among male voters, Towery said.

“[McCain’s] doing worse with males than he’s doing with females, and Obama’s picking up the lion’s share of independents in this particular county.”

Franklin County women currently prefer Obama, 48 percent to 44 percent. Among men, Obama leads by a surprising, 15-point margin, 53 percent to 38 percent.

“This is not good news for John McCain,” Towery said. “This county is just so representative of what’s going on in Ohio.”

McCain’s performance among men is stronger statewide. He trails Obama by 7 points among men, 42 percent to 49 percent, rather than by 15 points as in Franklin County. Obama currently leads among female voters in Ohio, 54 percent to 42 percent.

“If [McCain] can’t do something about that male percentage he’s a dead duck in Ohio,” Towery said.

In 2004, President George W. Bush won male voters in Ohio, 52 percent to 47 percent, and tied among female voters.

As Election Day draws closer, both presidential tickets have zeroed in on Ohio and Florida as possible keys to victory, and both have spent time campaigning in those states in recent days.

McCain stumped Thursday in Sarasota, Fla., and Palin rallied supporters in Troy, Ohio. On Wednesday, both members of the Republican ticket campaigned in Ohio.

Earlier in the week, Obama spent two days in Florida, campaigning alongside his former rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and visiting Miami, Pensacola, Orlando – and Tampa.

Recent polls have shown varied results in Florida. A Mason-Dixon poll released Wednesday showed McCain with a one-point lead in the state, though a St. Petersburg Times poll released Thursday placed Obama seven points ahead of his rival, leading 49 percent to 42 percent.

For McCain, Florida is an absolute must-win battleground because it is virtually impossible for him to get to the 270 electoral votes needed for victory without the state’s 27 electoral votes.

In theory, McCain could make up for a loss in Ohio by picking up Pennsylvania, but it would be a hard blow to lose a state with 20 electoral votes that President Bush won twice.

The latest wave of polls from Ohio have shown Obama building a substantial lead there, with a Thursday Quinnipiac University survey giving him a 14-point lead, a Big Ten poll released the same day showing him ahead by 12 points and a CNN/TIME magazine poll giving the Democrat a tighter, 4-point lead.

Previous Politico/InsiderAdvantage polling has shown Obama even with or ahead of McCain in a crucial set of battleground counties, including Hillsborough; Franklin; Jefferson County, Co.; St. Louis County, Mo.; Washoe County, Nev.; Wake County, N.C.; Bucks County, Pa. and Prince William County, Va.

The Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll of Florida’s Hillsborough County, conducted Oct. 22, tested 295 voters with a margin of error of plus or minus six percentage points. In the statewide poll of Florida, also conducted Oct. 22, there were 562 respondents with a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

The poll of Ohio’s Franklin County, conducted Oct. 22, had 432 respondents for a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points. The Ohio statewide poll, also conducted Oct. 22, tested 408 voters with a five-point margin of error.