At the beginning of March, I put together several charts that showed the impact COVID-19 had made on markets and the economy. Since there have been some crazy moves in the market since then, I thought it might make sense to do an update post. I think the trends speak for themselves so I’m going to just say a few words about each and let the charts tell most of the story.

This article continues my ongoing coverage of COVID-19. If you haven’t subscribed yet and are interested in future content, feel free to sign up to never miss a post.

The outbreak was initially contained to China with a few cases around the world that could be linked back to the source country. Not anymore. The number of infections outside of China has exploded in the last month.

After largely ignoring the news for about a month since the initial situation report from the World Health Organization, the stock market has taken a massive hit.

This stock market crash is now the eleventh worst on record going back to 1896 in terms of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The pace of selling has been extreme, rivaled only by the crashes of 1929 and 1987. Three of the thirteen worst days ever for the Dow occured over a recent one-week period!

Obviously, this has investors rightly spooked. The Volatility Index (aka the “fear index”) has jumped to levels not seen since the Financial Crisis in 2008.

Gold, which is considered a safe-haven and kind of the perfect investment for preppers who are expecting the apocalypse, showed a strong rally but subsequent cool off.

Unlike the stock market, the 10-Year US Treasury, which is another safe-haven asset, has been on a rally since the very beginning (lower rates are a positive for this asset class). The 10-Year rate hit its lowest level ever on March 9. It has since risen a bit in response to the expectation of significant government stimulus.

Meanwhile, estimates for Gross Domestic Product have showed little change or even some improvement. This is expected as economic indicators operate on a lag. 2020Q1 GDP is not expected to see a huge hit but 2020Q2 is expected to see a massive drop. Perhaps in another month the adverse impact will begin to manifest in the data.

While it can be dangerous to completely assign one event as the driver of markets and the economy, COVID-19 represents an immense material threat. The trajectory of the disease is incredibly uncertain. Thus, the potential for impact has a wide range of outcomes and many of the downside scenarios are being priced in to forward-looking indicators such as the stock market.

It is still unclear what new information will be uncovered day by day or how bad the outbreak will ultimately be. I’ll continue to write as material information comes available. Until then, let’s continue to hope for the best.