A lot of people will say it makes no sense to update your rankings all off-season long.

People on Twitter who call you out and say no one cares about your rankings, are the best. Well, it’s a long off-season and analysts need to find a way to talk football. Throwing around a bunch of rankings helps to kill some time.

In my last running back rankings,

I decided to toss some fire out. Not because I wanted to rile people up, although it is fun to do that from time to time, but because I legitimately think Derrick Henry has a shot to be a top-12 running back in 2019. Right now, I have him as the RB12 this off-season and nothing in the draft has changed that opinion so far. If I had to guess, at least half of you that read this will respond with “no way I’m trusting him again!” Well, give me a couple of minutes to explain why you should trust Henry in 2019.

I’m going to toss out my most important reasoning for Henry taking a step forward in 2019 and it has nothing to do with Henry in general. The Tennessee Titans have made a concentrated effort to upgrade the offensive line this off-season and signed Rodger Saffold, who comes from the Los Angeles Rams and was the number three graded run-blocking guard in the NFL last season. This is a huge upgrade to the offensive line as Saffold should slot into left-guard, right next to Taylor Lewan. When the Titans bounced the ball to the outside last season on the ground, they averaged 6.62 yards per carry to the right and 6.27 yards per carry to the left. When they tried to bring the ball inside, however, it dropped dramatically. The Titans had 85 rush attempts to left tackle and left guard last season for 340 rushing yards, good for four yards per carry. The Titans also had 135 rushing attempts to center for 480 yards, good for 3.56 yards per carry. Saffold helped anchor an offensive line in Los Angeles that has helped Todd Gurley be one of the most productive running backs in the NFL the past two seasons.

Have the Titans figured out the winning formula?

During the month of December in 2018, the Titans went 5-1 while leaning on Henry who ran for 625 yards and eight touchdowns. Dion Lewis is still in town and the Titans Signed Alex Barnes as a UDFA, but Henry is in a contract year and the Titans need to figure out what they have in the fourth year back. Henry finally eclipsed 200 carries last season for the first time, so for the most part, he’s still fresh after averaging 143 carries over his first two seasons. Even though I try to take front office or coach speak with a grain of salt this early in the year, it appears the Titans are committed to running their offense through Henry. During the NFL owners meetings, Titans General Manager Jon Robinson had strong words about Henry’s potential role in 2019. “He proved that he can step in there and carry the load, and we’ll try to put that right back on him. We’ll certainly be mindful of the carries that he’s getting and the touches that he’s getting.” Not only did Robinson’s words point towards Henry being a huge part of the game plan, but owner Amy Adams Strunk also seems to be on the Henry train as well. “I loved it. I loved it. Nobody works harder than Derrick, and he just proved what we all knew he had. I am excited to see what he does this year. I know it is going to be a good year for him.”

An even bigger factor that works out in the favor of Henry is the stout defense of Tennessee. In 2018, the Tennessee defense gave up 18.9 points per game, third least in the NFL. The Titans also ranked in the top-10 of yards per games thanks to a fabulous secondary that limited the passing game. The Titans kept that strong defense in tact by bringing in Cameron Wake and re-signing safety Kenny Vaccaro. The Titans will probably be turning to a ground and pound offensive game plan. Wear down opposing defense with the run game while controlling the clock and on the other side of the ball, an opposing secondary that stifles the passing game and forces a positive game script more times than not for the Titans.

With that ground and pound offense, Marcus Mariota moves from a QB that needs to win games, to a QB that will just need to direct the offense and not lose games. That is the type of role Mariota is best suited for anyway. Mariota has been inconsistent during his career but his best season, when he threw for 3,426 yards to go with 26 touchdowns and only nine interceptions in 2016, may have a very familiar story line to what we see this season. That season, the Titans also utilized a tough running game with DeMarco Murray who had 293 carries for 1,287 yards and nine rushing touchdowns. In half PPR leagues, Murray finished as the RB5 that season. Henry was also on that 2016 Titans team and had 110 attempts himself. If you are worried about Dion Lewis, factor that he may see the same workload on the ground and just take the receptions that Murray had in 2016 and transfer them to Lewis in 2019. It is very conceivable, given that thought process, Henry could be headed for a low-end RB1 season or a high-end RB2 at very least.

If you haven’t bought Henry yet, do it now in dynasty leagues.

If he has the type of season I think he is headed for, the Titans probably won’t let him walk and he stays in a great situation. In redraft leagues, you will probably be able to get Henry as your RB2 and he will carry weekly RB1 upside with every match up. That will be amazing value and return for you.