No looming baby boom in China

“YANG Wenzhuang, director of the primary level family planning guidance department of the National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC), has announced that the whole country is preparing to implement the new birth policy of allowing two children for families in which either parent is an only child. The policy is expected to come into force in some provinces in the first quarter of 2014.

Vice Minster of the NHFPC Wang Pei’an commented that the policy adjustment would not lead to a sharp increase of yearly births; by 2020, the population will be below 1.43 billion, peaking at less than 1.5 billion, far behind the country’s long-term projection.

The national plans concerning food production and fundamental public service resources are formulated on the basis of the population of 1.43 billion estimated to inhabit China by 2020 and 1.5 billion by 2033. It is predicted that after the modification of the policies, by 2015 the population will be less than 1.38 billion.”