Labour researchers rubbish YouGov claim that Jeremy Corbyn is set to win the leadership contest

Last night’s YouGov poll put Jeremy Corbyn in the lead in the race for Labour leader. It drew on a survey of Labour members, affiliated union members, and £3 registered supporters.

To add to the polling mix, the following represents data from a survey of 294 Labour councillors in key marginal seats carried out between Thursday 16 July and Monday 20 July 2015 by Labour History Research Unit, Anglia Ruskin University lecturer Richard Carr.

The previous June LHRU polling indicated below can be found here. Plugging in only these councillor results, the leadership and deputy leadership contests would proceed as follows:

Leadership contest

Round One – Liz Kendall is eliminated with 13.95 per cent of the vote

Candidate Vote Percentage % Change in First Preferences from June 2015 LHRU polling Andy BURNHAM 91 30.95% -4.75 Yvette COOPER 88 29.93% -0.17 Jeremy CORBYN 74 25.17% 6.27 Liz KENDALL 41 13.95% -1.35 TOTAL 294

Round Two – Jeremy Corbyn is eliminated with 25.77 per cent of the vote

Candidate Vote Percentage Andy BURNHAM 102 35.05% Yvette COOPER 114 39.18% Jeremy CORBYN 75 25.77% TOTAL 291

Round Three – Yvette Cooper becomes Labour Leader with 52.1 per cent of the vote

Candidate Vote Percentage Andy BURNHAM 137 47.90% Yvette COOPER 149 52.10% TOTAL 286

Deputy leadership contest

Round One – Ben Bradshaw is eliminated with 9.59 per cent of the vote

Candidate Vote Percentage % Change from June 2015 LHRU polling Ben BRADSHAW 28 9.59% -3.09 Stella CREASY 45 15.41% 2.69 Angela EAGLE 33 11.30% 3.8 Caroline FLINT 63 21.58% -5.52 Tom WATSON 123 42.12% 1.42 TOTAL 292

Round Two – Angela Eagle is eliminated with 12.89 per cent of the vote

Candidate Vote Percentage Stella CREASY 49 17.07% Angela EAGLE 37 12.89% Caroline FLINT 72 25.09% Tom WATSON 129 44.95% TOTAL 287

Round Three – Stella Creasy is eliminated with 20.91 per cent of the vote

Candidate Vote Percentage Stella CREASY 60 20.91% Caroline FLINT 84 29.27% Tom WATSON 143 49.83% TOTAL 287

Round Four – Tom Watson becomes Labour Deputy Leader with 61.62 per cent of the vote

Candidate Vote Percentage Caroline FLINT 104 38.38% Tom WATSON 167 61.62% TOTAL 271

Ruby Stockham is a staff writer at Left Foot Forward. Follow her on Twitter

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