SEC Win Totals to Wager On

South Carolina 5.5 Wins (Over -140, Under +120)

The Gamecocks personnel does inspire hope for this upcoming season. They have built a Top 25 roster. Jake Bently and Will Muschamp have built continuity with each other, but need to limit the turnovers. The chances are there for Bently, however, he needs to take advantage in his last season with South Carolina. One way for Bently to create better chances will be if the team can establish a running game behind Rico Dowdle. This will create more variety within their offense and offset the loss of WR, Deebo Samuel. Switching to the defense, they return 64 percent of their production. The DL and secondary needs to create havoc to bypass the weaker LB core. Javon Kinlaw looks to increase his sack total from last year of 4.5. Regardless, the depth of the defense will be tested and could determine the outlook for this team.



For any personnel, this would be an exhausting schedule. The Gamecocks are slated to face three playoff teams from last year — Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson. Those should be three losses. Also, the Gamecocks must travel to Texas A&M along with hosting Florida. Losses are expected in those games as well, so that totals five losses already. Nonetheless, there are probable wins on the schedule against UNC, Charleston Southern and Vanderbilt. Thus, four games are left, where they will need to win three to eclipse the over. Two of these will be at home and South Carolina has the best chance to win these versus Kentucky and Appalachian State. Current projections have them as six- to seven-point favorites. They need to fight off upsets, especially against teams like App. St., that play top programs to the wire. The remaining two games will be at Missouri and at Tennessee. The depth and the health of the Gamecocks will be tested in these road match-ups.



The Pick: Under 5.5 wins (+120). South Carolina has the least manageable schedule of all FBS schools. There is no room for error so that does not bode confidence in the Gamecocks.

Ole Miss 4.5 Wins (Over -180, Under +160)

The Rebels are facing two obstacles that schools dread — turnover and a non-favorable schedule. New faces run through this team from the players to the coordinators. Head coach, Matt Luke, has hired new coordinators on both sides of the ball. New OC Rich Rodriquez inherits a starting running back in Scottie Phillips, but has large shoes to fill throughout the rest of the offense. Matt Corral will start at QB and if he takes time to find a rhythm, it could get ugly. No starters return to WR — the lone bright spot of this team from last season.. On the defensive side of the ball, it cannot get much worse. Last season, Ole Miss ranked 113th or worse in all defensive categories. Mohamed Sanogo returns to the LB core, but the Rebels lose their leader in sacks and interceptions. Mike MacIntyre has his work cut out for him in the SEC.



Ole Miss has a demanding schedule ahead of them. There will be seven games where they will be six-point underdogs or more. With the current state of the Rebels defense, it is likely they go winless. In two non-conference games, they will be more than 28 point favorites. This slates them at 2-7 with three games remaining. Ole Miss will need to win these to secure the over. It is possible since they will be at home and favored between five and eight points in them. A win is foreseeable against Cal so that leaves two SEC games left. The match-ups against Arkansas and Vanderbilt should come down to the wire. Chad Morris will achieve his first SEC win in Oxford for Arkansas.



The Pick: Under 4.5 wins (+160). Matt Luke will continue to struggle with the NCAA sanctions. The Rebels will finish the season with four wins.

Alabama Positive Odds to Go Undefeated?!

If you’re high on Tua and the Tide, the win total is listed at over 11.5 (+125). Books risking positive odds on an Alabama slipping up in one game. They will be greater than ten-point favorites in all of their contests. At Auburn or home against LSU are the potential pitfalls for this team and they seem unlikely. One potential game I am eying to fade is at Miss St., depending on how the Bulldogs fare in the first nine games.

Florida’s Critical Games

Dan Mullen and Feleipe Franks look to gain more consistency in their second season together. Currently listed at nine wins (Over +135, Under -155), Vegas is projecting the Gators to regress. Three key SEC games will determine their fate of surpassing the over. They will need to win at home against Auburn and on the road at South Carolina and Missouri to hit the over. If you think those three are wins, back the Gators at (+135).



LSU’s Critical Games

Ed Orgeron and crew have a significant stretch of three SEC games to secure the win total of nine (Over -105, Under -115). The Tigers will only need to win two of the three to cash the over — First is home against Florida and then on the road at Miss St. and at Auburn. Two wins are certain so I would lean towards the over.

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