Jay Livingston points to this hypey article, “Have Smartphones Destroyed a Generation?”, by Jean Twenge, who writes:

I’ve been researching generational differences for 25 years . . . Typically, the characteristics that come to define a generation appear gradually, and along a continuum. . . . [But] Around 2012, I noticed abrupt shifts in teen behaviors and emotional states. The gentle slopes of the line graphs became steep mountains and sheer cliffs, and many of the distinctive characteristics of the Millennial generation began to disappear. In all my analyses of generational data—some reaching back to the 1930s—I had never seen anything like it. . . . At first I presumed these might be blips, but the trends persisted, across several years and a series of national surveys. The changes weren’t just in degree, but in kind. . . . What happened in 2012 to cause such dramatic shifts in behavior? It was after the Great Recession, which officially lasted from 2007 to 2009 and had a starker effect on Millennials trying to find a place in a sputtering economy. But it was exactly the moment when the proportion of Americans who owned a smartphone surpassed 50 percent. . . .

OK, interesting. But Livingston recalled he’d seen some mention of Twenge’s research before. Here’s Livingston, from 2016:

There it was again, the panic about the narcissism of millennials as evidenced by selfies. This time it was NPR’s podcast Hidden Brain. . . . The show’s host Shankar Vedantem chose to speak with only one researcher on the topic – psychologist Jean Twenge, whose even-handed and calm approach is clear from the titles of her books, Generation Me and The Narcissism Epidemic. She is obviously not alone in worrying about the narcissistic youth of America. In 2013, a Time Magazine cover on “The Me Me Me Generation” showed a millennialish woman taking a selfie. . . . Twenge, in the Hidden Brain episode, uses individualism and narcissism as though they were interchangeable. She refers to her data on the increase in “individualistic” pronouns and language, even though linguists have shown this idea to be wrong (see Mark Liberman at Language log here and here). . . . Then there’s the generational question. Are millennials more narcissistic than were their parents or grandparents? Just in case you’ve forgotten, that Time magazine cover was not the first one focused on “me.” In 1976, New York Magazine ran a similarly titled article by Tom Wolfe. . . . And maybe, if you’re old enough, when you read the title The Narcissism Epidemic, you heard a faint echo of a book by Christopher Lasch published thirty years earlier. . . .

Then Livingston brings in the data:

Since 1975, Monitoring the Future (here) has surveyed large samples of US youth. It wasn’t designed to measure narcissism, but it does include two relevant questions: Compared with others your age around the country, how do you rate yourself on school ability?

How intelligent do you think you are compared with others your age? It also has self-esteem items including I take a positive attitude towards myself

On the whole, I am satisfied with myself

I feel I do not have much to be proud of (reverse scored) A 2008 study compared 5-year age groupings and found absolutely no increase in “egotism” (those two “compared with others” questions). The millennials surveyed in 2001-2006 were almost identical to those surveyed twenty-five years earlier. The self-esteem questions too showed little change. Another study by Brent Roberts, et al., tracked two sources for narcissism: data from Twenge’s own studies; and data from a meta-analysis that included other research, often with larger samples. The test of narcissism in all cases was the Narcissism Personality Inventory – 40 questions designed to tap narcissistic ideas. A sample from a 16-item version of the Narcissitic Personality Inventory. Narcissistic responses are in boldface. (It’s hard to read these and not think of Donald Trump.)

1. __ I really like to be the center of attention

__ It makes me uncomfortable to be the center of attention 2. __I am no better or nor worse than most people

__I think I am a special person 3. __Everybody likes to hear my stories

__Sometimes I tell good stories 5. __I don’t mind following orders

__I like having authority over people 7. __People sometimes believe what I tell them

__I can make anybody believe anything I want them to 10. __ I am much like everybody else

__ I am an extraordinary person 13. __ Being an authority doesn’t mean that much to me

__People always seem to recognize my authority 14. __ I know that I am good because everybody keeps telling me so

__When people compliment me I sometimes get embarrassed 16. __ I am more capable than other people

__There is a lot that I can learn from other people Their results look like this: Twenge’s sources justify her conclusion that narcissism is on the rise. But include the other data and you wonder if all the fuss about kids today is a bit overblown. You might not like participation trophies or selfie sticks or Instagram, but it does not seem likely that these have created an epidemic of narcissism.

Given all this, I’m skeptical about Twenge’s claims of big changes in 2012. I’d like to see the data, or, better still, given my own time constraints, to see the data analyzed by some independent source.

Why so negative?

At this point, you might ask: Why do I have to be so negative? Why reflexively disbelieve Twenge’s claims?

My answer: I’m not saying I disbelieve or that I think Twenge’s claims are wrong. I just don’t see that she’s provided convincing evidence for these claims.

I will say, though, that there’s something refreshing about an article saying that today’s kids are screwed up because they don’t have enough sex:

The topic is important

To put it another way, I write about this because I care; I share Twenge’s concern. If it’s really true that “the number of teens who get together with their friends nearly every day dropped by more than 40 percent from 2000 to 2015,” that’s interesting. But I’d have to see it to believe it. And I don’t really know what I’m supposed to do with statements such as, “Those who spend an above-average amount of time with their friends in person are 20 percent less likely to say they’re unhappy than those who hang out for a below-average amount of time.” Also this: “three times as many 12-to-14-year-old girls killed themselves in 2015 as in 2007, compared with twice as many boys,” which is indeed a concern, but then I googled *teen suicide rates* and found this: “The rate of Americans ending their own lives has risen to its highest level in decades, according to a new study from the Centers for Disease Control, and the increase is especially pronounced among women. . . . The suicide rate increased for women of all ages, but the spike was especially pronounced for women aged 45-64. And although such incidents are comparatively rare, suicides of girls aged 10-14 increased 200% in that period, to 150 in 2014.” So, yes it’s a concern, but nothing particular about the younger generation.

There should be a way for researchers and journalists to float interesting hypotheses without feeling the need to act as if all their findings point in the same direction.