Talking to people working to defeat a ballot initiative this fall to amend the California Constitution to ban gay marriage (now allowed, despite two vetoes by Gov. Schwarzenegger, thanks to a decision by the California Supreme Court), the sentiment was that initial polling would likely show some opposition to gay marriage, but that it would be tight enough to overcome throughout the course of the election season. Given that Californians appear happy to vote "no" on just about every initiative (my default position as well), I felt good about our chances this fall.

Well, things look even better.

Field Poll (PDF). 5/17-26. Registered voters. MoE 3.2%

Do you approve or disapprove of California allowing homosexuals to marry members of their own sex and have regular marriage laws apply to them? (Same question asked every survey throughout the years) Approve Disapprove

5/2008 51 42

2006 44 50

2004 44 50

2003 42 50

1997 38 56

1985 30 62

1977 28 59

That's what progress looks like. And the younger the respondent, the more support for marriage equality.

Approve Disapprove 18-29 68 25

30-39 58 34

40-49 51 42

50-64 47 46

65+ 36 55



Opponents of marriage equality are desperate because they are indeed running out of time. The younger generations are more tolerant, and the older ones are fading away. That means that every year, support for tolerance and equality grows, and this is obviously anathema to conservatives. (And it is conservatives -- Democrats support gay marriage 65-29, Republicans oppose it 25-69. Independents are a tolerant bunch as well, supporting gay marriage 61-27.)

And to think that in 2003, civil unions was considered radical!

Marry Civil Unions No recognition May 2008 45 32 19

Feb 2006 36 33 27



But what about the constitutional amendment in this fall's ballot? Here's the best news in this poll:

"Do you favor or oppose changing the California State Constitution to define marriage as between a man and a woman, thus barring marriage between gay and lesbian couples?" Favor 40

Oppose 54 "There may be a vote on this issue in the November election. Would you favor or oppose having the state constitution prohibit same-sex marriage, by defining marriage as only between a man and a woman? Favor 43

Oppose 51



Those are numbers we can work with, and much better than what we could've hoped for in the early going.

Meanwhile, Gov. Schwarzenegger's ratings are at a two-year low -- 37 approve, 60 disapprove. Just another reminder that despite what the national media tells you, Californians don't love their idiot governor. At least he outpaces Bush. Barely.