The words “Change vs more of the same,” “The economy, stupid” and “Don’t forget healthcare” were, in 1992, hung on the walls of then Democratic presidential nominee Bill Clinton’s campaign headquarters.

Clinton rode to the White House on the back of that economic message, a promise to fix healthcare and the idea that, after 12 years of Republican administrations, it was time for something new.

At a restaurant in Avon, Ohio, just west of Cleveland – which will play host to the Republican national convention later this month – the backdrop of the presidential election isn’t much different in 2016: it’s still about the economy, stupid.



Or, as Robert James, 51, a sheet metal worker and councilman from nearby South Amherst, Ohio, with fading military tattoos on his forearms, said over beers with some buddies: “The economy sucks, as we know. It needs to be reformed.”

Next to him, Kyle Walker, 53, a small business owner from Avon, agreed. “As much as people like to say that it’s getting better and it’s so much better than it was, it’s truly not. I mean, if you want to be honest about it – people want to be honest about it – it’s still in bad shape.”

Whether that’s statistically true is an open question: the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank shows that Ohio’s gross domestic product is up almost $130bn since the nadir of the recession, and Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show that the unemployment rate is down to pre-recession levels.

On the other hand, the same agency shows that the number of people in the labor force in Ohio hasn’t returned to pre-recession levels, the underemployment rate was still above 10% at the end of 2015 and the state lost over 100,000 manufacturing jobs in the past decade.

Numbers don’t lie; they just never tell the full story. And the story of north-east Ohio – and other places like it – is that the jobs for which people used to move to the area have been disappearing for a long time. The positions that have replaced them often don’t provide workers with the same standard of living, or they require skills that some people just don’t have.

Though most of the men drinking beer and eating pizza at Wood and Wine were white-collar workers, their families had all been drawn to the Cleveland area in previous generations because of the blue-collar jobs that allowed people to build middle-class lives.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Kyle Walker, 53, a small business owner from Avon, said he believes the economy ‘is still in bad shape’. Photograph: Bastien Inzaurralde/The Guardian

Jim Miller, 50, is an attorney in Avon, but like many of his friends and neighbors he has those blue-collar roots. “My dad worked 42 years in the steel mill,” he explained. “Those jobs don’t exist anymore. How many people work in the steel mill now? None. So those entry-level jobs that people could get and raise their families don’t exist very much anymore.”



Added Walker: “Those jobs that you could support a family on without going to college, they’re just not there. They’re gone.”

Florian Paul, 61, who works for Hewlett Packard and lives in Avon Lake, explained that, for his parents, “you get a low paying job then, you could work, get a house , you could survive. But now you’re going to live in a really bad neighborhood to do that ... They don’t make those little houses anymore.”

“Look at all the manufacturing that was actually right there in south Lorain,” said accountant Ed Kilbane, 54. “Today everybody’s talking about their parents, but if their parents were in the same situation today, the reality of it was, no matter how hard they tried, they wouldn’t be able to repeat for us what they did, because the conditions are totally different.”

Miller, the attorney, agreed. “My dad wouldn’t be in Lorain. There wouldn’t be a job. There wouldn’t be a steel mill job there.”

“Right,” said Kilbane. “So how do you fix that? Because until you fix that, you can’t fix anything.”

As much as people like to say that it’s getting better and it’s so much better than it was, it’s truly not

Walker doesn’t exactly trust politicians of any stripe to do much to fix the economic problems, including employment. “The politicians, they want to wave a magic wand, and say, ‘Oh, I’m going to do this and it’s going to be great,’ [but] it’s going to take time,” he said. “We’ve got to get people back to work. We’ve got to start making things in this country again.”

Paul agreed that outsourcing is a problem, but said the drift of jobs overseas is not limited to manufacturing any more. “Everybody always thinks about jobs being exported to other countries, and they always think the traditional ones, especially in north-east Ohio. But what they don’t talk about is all the electronic jobs that are overseas – all the high-tech jobs that are supposed to be here, but aren’t. Nobody ever talks about that.”

“I think if we want to improve the state of the economy in this country, we have to start focusing on trade deficits,” said Kilbane, echoing points made by presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. “We have to start focusing on the outsourcing of jobs to other countries, and not just the typical manufacturing jobs, like you mentioned.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Robert James and Kyle Walker. ‘The politicians, they want to wave a magic wand and say, ‘Oh, I’m going to do this and it’s going to be great’, but it’s going to take time,’ Walker said. Photograph: Bastien Inzaurralde/The Guardian

But it’s more than just government policy that they thought needed to change, if the economy is going to improve. Many of the men who met that night believed that the young people don’t share the work ethic that made their own and previous generations successful.

Rob Ernst, 59, is a sales representative for document output – a euphemism for a photocopier salesman – and the one person at dinner that all the guys had in common with one another. “We’ve all come from very, very sound work ethic as we were growing up,” he said, explaining that his father worked long hours to raise his eight kids and passed down to each of them the importance of hard work.

“It was a sense of pride for me that I could make my own way,” he said, implying that some people don’t necessarily share that same sense of pride. “I didn’t want to go to my parents and ask them for anything.”

Those jobs that you could support a family on without going to college, they’re just not there. They’re gone

Walker said that his father-in-law, an ex-marine, had five kids and worked two jobs – one at Ford and one with the railroad – for 18 years, then just at Ford for 12 more years, and then nine with the railroad after he retired from Ford to qualify for his pension – “because he wanted a better life for his kids: five kids all went through college, five kids all doing very well. Five kids that he didn’t want to have the same life that he did.”

“That’s what we don’t have anymore,” said Kilbane, who explained that he was raised by a single mom because “she booted my old man because he was a booze hound, when I was three years old”.

“She made sure that I had a paper route, she was all ‘go get a job’ when I was 16,” he said. “And like [Rob], I never felt good about going, ‘Hey Mommy, can I have some money?’ After I got my first paycheck at Taco Bell earning $4.25 an hour, which was minimum wage at the time; I thought I was the man.

“And I’m pushing my kids to do the same.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest John Marinaro, Robert James, Kyle Walker, Ed Kilbane, Rob Ernst, Jake Stabel, Jim Miller and Florian Paul at Wood & Wine restaurant in Avon, Ohio. Photograph: Bastien Inzaurralde/The Guardian

James, the only blue-collar worker of the bunch, agrees that the younger guys in his business don’t look at work the same way. “I’m union,” he said. “And I bring an apprentice in, I bring a guy in from the hall, and he wants to work three days a week, not four days a week, not five days a week. I mean, come on.”



Miller, the lawyer, asked: “How easy is it to find people if you do have an opening to do that? I mean, I got a friend who has a company, and he’ll tell you.” Miller’s friend pays well, but can’t fill positions because “most people fail the drug test”, he said.

“He says, ‘I can’t employ them. I can’t have them working up in the places I have and worry,” Miller explained.

“There’s no personal responsibility,” he continued. “And the fact is, even if you’re saying this is not fair, I always tell people life ain’t fair. I tell my kids this all the time. Life isn’t fair.”

Walker added: “We used to be a country that, you know, you get up in the morning, you pull yourself up by the bootstraps, you work hard, you make something happen for yourself. And we’ve gotten away from that.

“And those who really cannot do that are not getting the help because the money’s not there to do so.”

John Marinaro, 50, agreed. “Look at our social programs. Can we really afford them? And I think if we can’t afford them then we need to figure something else out – at least be able to pay our way forward.”



“When the economy’s robust,” Walker said, “it pays for the things that we need. And the money’s there to take care of the people that necessarily can’t take care of themselves. And unfortunately it’s not there.”

Miller chimed in: “We’ve got to get this economy going and we’ve got to get it jump-started so that we can pay for these things and do that.”

Facebook Twitter Pinterest John Marinaro, 50, said of federal social programs: ‘Can we really afford them? If we can’t then we need to figure something else out.’ Photograph: Bastien Inzaurralde/The Guardian

Though much of the conversation might not have sounded out of place at a Republican political rally, none of the men felt particularly kindly towards the current political leaders, right or left, or their willingness to get down to the business of government instead of the distraction of politicking.

“I’d like to focus on economy, I’d like to focus on size of government,” said Kilbane, expressing his dissatisfaction. Reeling off issues that he felt had unduly dominated 2016 discussion, he said: “I don’t care about transvestites, I don’t care about all kinds of people’s little pet peeves. And I don’t care about one-percenters at the top, I don’t care about one-percenters at the bottom. I want to focus on things that are important. And I mean really, it’s the economy, it’s the defense of this country, it’s immigration, it’s things that a couple of these guys have already stated.”

Miller added: “I’ll tell you, most people would rather have a job making good money than worrying about what type of bathroom [to use] in North Carolina law.”

I think if we want to improve the state of the economy in this country, we have to start focusing on trade deficits

But while everyone agreed that, despite their dissatisfaction, they would still head to the polls in November, the youngest member of the group, Jake Stabel, 33 – an IT architect – chimed in. “I really don’t give a shit,” he said. “My father-in-law is absolutely pissed off at me. I told him this past weekend, we were driving down to Mansfield [Ohio] – which, talk about a city that’s just broken now – I said: ‘I’m going to vote for my dog.’ And he said: ‘What the fuck’s wrong with you?’”

Stabel explained: “I said: ‘What am I going to do with them? I don’t want to vote for either side.’ And I’ve never skipped.”

Walker said: “If you look who’s running for president, what does it really say about us as a country? I mean, we’ve got a 70-plus-year-old professed socialist, whether you like that or you don’t like that. I’m not saying one way or the other. You have a guy who’s a billionaire narcissist who’s running. And her.”

Ernst: “A liar.”



Miller: “The pantsuit.”



Walker replied: “Whatever you want to say about whoever. But realistically, that’s the best we can do?”



Paul answered: “That’s very sad.”