Gary Gold has named his final roster of the Americas Rugby Championship to face Canada on Friday. USA Rugby is seeking a positive conclusion to an ARC that has seen the men drop to #15 in the world rankings. To achieve it, they’ve made six changes from last week’s disappointing loss.

The CanAm Cup

About 10 years ago (July 4, 2009), the Eagles stopped the Canadians in Charleston by the score of 12-6. They wouldn’t beat Canada again for five years. Canada strung together seven test wins on the bounce, lasting all the way until June of 2014.

After the Eagles won in Sacramento by a narrow three-point margin, in a match that this writer recalls as one of his first great test match viewing experiences, the momentum swung. It was the USA’s turn to own the CanAm Cup. Since and including that win, USA Rugby is 8-0 against Canada with one draw.

During that time, Canada went from regular Americas #1 qualifying team for the Rugby World Cup to requiring the repechage to book their flight. The USA will be Americas #1 in Japan this fall.

Canada has fallen to #21 in the world rankings. A press release outlining World Rugby’s vision for a new Rugby Nations Championship Wednesday even placed Canada into what effectively amounts to Tier 3.

But is it time for another momentum shift? As history proves, it can turn quickly. With the Eagles’ ARC performance leaving much to be desired, there’s blood in the air. Canada is coming off a hard-fought loss to Argentina XV, having given them a much closer contest than the USA did. Rosters are ever-changing, but that may not matter when it comes to the psychology of the upset.

Eagles Near Full Strength

AJ MacGinty returned to Sale after the Argentina loss, and likewise Titi Lamositele to Saracens. Looking past those two, this could very easily be considered a full-strength Eagles side.

Will Hooley is out with an HIA, but a back three of Blaine Scully, Marcel Brache, and Mike Te’o is no downgrade. Brache, in fact, showed a veteran presence and some power kicking from hand in the Argentina game, where he last played full back. Those attributes were sorely lacking in the Eagles’ kick game blunders last week.

Joe Tafuete’e, the record holder for tries by an international front row player, returns to action. Many expected him to be back in Worcester by now. Power center Paul Lasike also remains in an Eagle shirt, absent from the Harlequins.

All told, the Eagles are not giving up their CanAm Cup without a fight.

ARC 2019

This will be the last match of the ARC 2019. Entering the tournament, I was on board the train that thought USA may have outgrown the ARC. That seems so naïve now. When the smoke clears from this tournament, an assessment will be required. Did the USA backtrack? The results would seem so. Did the other teams improve? Certainly. At least somewhat. But is it enough to explain this convergence? I’m not sure. Weird run of form? Possible.

One thought that occurred to me after last week’s kicking follies was that it was like watching a training session. I found myself wondering if the USA, understanding the shortcomings in their game that need to be addressed to advance to the next level, have been focused on training up those areas regardless of results. I can picture Gary Gold telling his men that they need to be able to kick tactically and pressure those kicks to gain an advantage if they want to compete in Tier 1. And I can picture the USA trying to learn it, even with the associated struggles. When better to learn it and train it than in the ARC?

How much of the recent downturn has been the USA committing to a long-term plan of improvement, despite short-term challenges and disappointing outcomes? Maybe this is all just wishful thinking, but it bears watching.

Prediction

It goes without saying that backing USA this ARC has been frustrating. But I stuck with them this far, not going to drop them now. I think the Eagles’ pride is enough to produce one more meaningful win before ARC 2019 is a wrap.

USA by 8