The media likes to pretend third-party candidates like the Libertarian’s Gary Johnson and the Green’s Jill Stein don’t exist in the horse race between Romney and Obama. This isn’t surprising, but the level of ignorance is simply stunning sometimes. It’s one thing to just not talk about them very much. It’s another to not include them as options in most of the polls even though they will be on the ballots in most of the states. But it’s exceptionally frustrating when they are included in a poll, shining brightly with record levels of support, and everyone still pretends they don’t exist!

CNN just released a new poll in the almighty swing state of Ohio. The big headline:

This is followed by two or three pages of fascinating analysis and quotes and context about how important this is for everyone and everything. Buried in the third-to-last paragraph is the following:

Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode are also on the presidential ballot in Ohio.When their names were added to the poll, Obama is at 47%, Romney 44%, with Johnson at 5%, Stein at 1% and Goode registering less than one-half of one percent.



Wait, what’s that?! There were actually two polls in this poll?! The first with Obama 50%, Romney 47%, and the second with Obama 47%, Romney, 44%, Johnson 5%, Stein 1%? Guess which poll actually reflects the ballot choices this year in Ohio?

It might make sense to gush over the first poll if Romney and Obama were the only names on the ballot. But the actual ballot has five names on it. The 50%-47% headline comes from a set of polling options that do not really exist!

Yet those are the numbers at the top of the page. Those are the numbers RealClearPolitics displays when it links to the poll. Those are the numbers newspapers quote in their articles. Those are the numbers everyone is talking about. (To be fair, Nate Silver has the more accurate numbers.) Even when third-party candidates exist, they still don’t exist.

This isn’t an isolated incident; I’ve been watching it happen for months. Just look at most of the polls on GaryJohnsonPolls.com with an “Estimated Support Pull.” Ask about Romney and Obama, make those numbers the headline and talk, talk, talk about those numbers, and then oh by the way if we ask about all the candidates that are actually on the ballot, you get these different numbers, but don’t pay any attention to them because then you might notice that there is actually some support for these candidates!

Of All The Polls To Ignore

What makes the ignorance so frustrating is that, all of the polls to ignore, this one is a phenomenal poll for Gary Johnson. CNN has polled Ohio three times in the last month, and Johnson’s numbers have grown from 3% to 4% to 5%. Third-party candidate support is supposed to drop closer to election day. Third-party candidates aren’t supposed to be as attractive in swing states. But in the biggest swing state of them all, in a state that may end up deciding the entire election, and with only half a week to go, Johnson’s support is registering at record levels*!

*Well, if we don’t count that 11% outlier poll from Gravis in September that nobody ever duplicated. For every other more proven pollster that has ever included Johnson on a poll in Ohio, these are record levels.

Furthermore, despite having support (5%) that is greater than the margin of victory (3%), he is not spoiling the race for either candidate! Johnson tends to pull more from Romney than Obama but still noticeably from both. In this case, both candidates drop 3% when you include Johnson, Stein, and Goode; if we assume that Stein gets her 1% from Obama than Johnson gets 3% from Romney and 2% from Obama – a net loss for neither one.

If Johnson is polling five percent in the unlikely swing state of Ohio, how much support might he have in states that aren’t even close, where his name has never been included in a poll? Does he really have a shot – however improbable – at reaching the five percent threshold?

The pollsters and media are so intent on ignoring third-party candidates that even when they have a chance to merely report numbers for Romney and Obama that are affected by Johnson’s name on the ballot, they still report the misleading numbers that pretend he isn’t there. I guess we’ll just have to wait until Tuesday to see if the remaining non-early voters gravitate to the big two, or if they reveal a big surprise…