Andrew J. Goudsward

@agoudsward

Donald Trump is hoping to turn New Jersey red this November as part of an overall strategy to redraw the battleground map. But can he?

Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee, has vowed to make several states, including New Jersey, won by President Obama in 2012 competitive this November through his appeal to working-class voters.

"He [Trump] put it in play. It's been a long time so we've been a targeted state by a Republican candidate and that's a good thing for New Jersey," Gov. Chris Christie, a top Trump surrogate, said last month. "He's got a lot of history here and he'd like to win NJ."

In a May interview on Fox News, Trump said the state was "like a second home."

"I love New Jersey. I am New Jersey," Trump told host Sean Hannity. "I have property there. I have a lot of employees there. And frankly, I think we're going to do well."

But while local GOP officials said Trump could run a close race because of his familiarity with the state and his appeal to disaffected blue-collar voters, political analysts said he faces daunting odds in trying to win New Jersey, a state that has been solidly Democratic in presidential elections for more than two decades.

"My sense is that he's spent a lot of time in New Jersey and his gut is telling him 'I know New Jersey. They like me,' but when you look at patterns of voting behavior, when you look at how the state has behaved in elections, any contention that New Jersey could be competitive is kind of a pipe dream rather than based in any scientific or statistical analysis," said Brigid Harrison, professor of political science and law at Montclair State University.

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Trump would be facing an uphill battle in a state that has been largely inhospitable to national Republicans, experts said.

A Republican presidential candidate hasn't won New Jersey since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Since 1996, only once has a Republican lost by less than double-digits. Obama carried the state by 18 percentage points in 2012.

In addition, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 2 to 1 and Harrison said unaffiliated voters who didn't turn out to vote New Jersey's primaries last month also lean Democratic.

Harrison said the increasing diversity of the state could also hamper Trump. A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll showed the real estate mogul with an 88 percent unfavorable rating with non-white voters.

Even picking two-term governor Christie might hurt - rather than help - Trump's odds in the state. Candidates often use the vice presidential pick to appeal to voters in targeted states and multiple media reports Thursday said Trump was strongly considering Christie as his running mate. According to the Washington Post, Christie and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich top Trump's short list and have both are being actively vetted by the campaign.

Christie, who became one of the first major GOP leaders to endorse Trump in February, has become a top surrogate. Last month, he defended Trump against charges that his comments on the judge in the Trump University case were racist and has become one of Trump's top allies behind the scenes in a Republican establishment that has largely yet to fully embrace him.

However, according to one poll, choosing Christie -- whose job approval ratings are at a record low -- might actually backfire among New Jersey voters. A Monmouth University poll released in May found that 42 percent of New Jersey voters would be less likely to support Trump with Christie as his running mate. Eight percent said it would help while 48 percent said it would make no difference.

New Jersey is one of several large, typically Democratic states, usually ignored by Republicans, that Trump has boasted that he can compete in by bringing more working-class voters to the Republican Party and expanding the battleground map beyond typical bellwethers like Florida, Ohio and Colorado. In doing so, he hopes to fashion an easier path to the 270 electoral votes needed to become the next president.

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The same Monmouth poll showed a neck-and-neck race in New Jersey, with Trump trailing his likely Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton by just four percentage points, 38 to 34. The poll was conducted after Trump had completed his nomination fight and while Clinton was still embroiled in a battle with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute said polls at this stage frequently show a tight race and "if history is a guide, it will widen by November."

The most statewide poll suggests it already has.

Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind poll, released June 29 showed Trump in a massive hole in New Jersey at the start of the general election, trailing Clinton, 52 percentage points to 31,although Clinton's edge drops to 44 to 32 when Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is included.

“Here in New Jersey, Trump support is solid among about a third of the electorate. There’s less certainty than for Clinton, although, with a 21 point lead over Trump in a major party matchup, she can weather the loss of support given the addition of an Independent candidate,” Krista Jenkins, political science professor and the poll's director said.

Still, Ocean County GOP Chairman George Gillmore said the Monmouth poll was an indication that at this early stage of the race Trump could be "within striking distance."

"Would I automatically concede New Jersey at this point? No," he said. "I think Trump can make New Jersey competitive, but to do that he'll have to spend resources and time in New Jersey."

Gillmore said many Democrats in Ocean County switched their registration in last week's Republican primary and the increased turnout compared to previous cycles "shows you something" about Trump's appeal to working-class workers.

"He struck a nerve," he said. "He struck a nerve with blue-collar voters and all the Reagan Democrats that he's pulling in. You're talking about Democrats that haven't voted for Republicans before."

Gillmore said turning out masses of those voters would be the key to how Trump could overcome the pitfalls previous Republican nominees have faced in the state.

Trump's 80.4 percent in New Jersey's Republican primary was the highest percentage he received in any state this primary cycle, though New Jersey was one of only a handful of states which held its primary after Trump had already clinched the delegates need to win the nomination.

Trump captured nearly 360,000 votes in the primary, nearly doubling Mitt Romney's 184,732 total from a similarly uncontested late-season primary in 2012.

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Ben Dworkin, director of Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, said Trump could cut into the margins of Obama's win in NJ in 2012 because of the "force of his personality" and his familiarity in the region. Trump owns a number of properties in New Jersey, a luxury apartment complex in Jersey city, three golf courses including Trump National Golf Club in Colts Neck and, famously, his former casino empire on the boardwalk in Atlantic City.

"It'll probably be more competitive than it has been in past contests," Dworkin said. "In the end, though, short of something dramatic happening on either side, I expect that heading into fall, Hillary Clinton should have a solid lead."

Former Monmouth County Clerk Claire French, who ran as a Trump delegate in the Republican primary, said Trump's familiarity within the state would also help him in November.

"I think he appeals to people who feel government has not represented them and the message that they get in ordinary election years sounds good, but doesn't seem to affect their lives personally," she said. "He certainly has invested in New Jersey. He has excellent businesses that have done well and benefited the community. I think he knows New Jersey and New Jersey knows him."

Even with Trump's high-turnout in the Republican primary, Clinton, who won her primary, received nearly 200,000 more votes than Trump. Sanders, who lost the Democratic contest in New Jersey by almost 30 percentage points, garnered only about 30,000 fewer votes than Trump.

Monmouth County Democratic Party Chairman Vin Gopal said there's no "mathematical way" that Trump could win New Jersey because the state's demographics work against Republicans.

"Like a lot of comments that he's made, that's not based in any practicality or reality," he said.

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Experts said Trump's performance in the primary would likely not be a harbinger of what's to come in the general election because November's electorate will dwarf turnout in the primaries.

Murray estimated that there will be around 2.5 million more voters in November than who showed up at the polls last Tuesday.

"We're talking about 300,000 who voted for him in the New Jersey primary, he's going to need almost 2 million to win in November," he said.

Even so, Dworkin said with a Trump campaign that has frequently bucked political convention, there was no telling what strategy Trump might employ.

"It's almost impossible to predict what he's going to do, the nature of his campaign is such that he makes decisions all the time and usually on the fly," he said. "The rules get thrown out with Donald Trump."

Andrew Goudsward: (732) 643-3653; agoudsward@gannettnj.com