Canada Election 2015

If the election were held today, these are the projected seat counts based on the latest polls.

Conservative 113

Liberal 155

NDP 64

Green 1

Bloc Québecois 4

Independent 1

Do you want a change of government in the 2015 Canadian election? Vote for the strongest candidate in your riding who isn't a member of the current governing party. If all non-conservatives voted this way, the seat counts would be:

Conservative 40

Liberal 200

NDP 89

Green 1

Bloc Québecois 5

Independent 3

You can register to vote online. It's fast and easy.

Strategic Vote Lookup for All 338 Federal Ridings

Visit Elections Canada to look up your riding or enter your postal code here:

The strongest opposition candidate is underlined. The coloured boxes are the current projected winners.

Alberta

Banff--Airdrie 64 20 11 5 0 96%

Battle River--Crowfoot 77 8 11 3 1 100%

Bow River 70 16 11 3 1 98%

Calgary Centre 37 46 10 7 0 65%

Calgary Confederation 37 45 12 5 0 63%

Calgary Forest Lawn 45 41 10 3 0 57%

Calgary Heritage 64 21 11 4 1 96%

Calgary Midnapore 65 20 11 4 0 97%

Calgary Nose Hill 50 32 12 5 0 76%

Calgary Rocky Ridge 51 35 10 4 0 74%

Calgary Shepard 61 23 11 4 0 93%

Calgary Signal Hill 43 43 9 5 0 50%

Calgary Skyview 34 57 7 2 0 82%

Edmonton Centre 36 32 27 4 0 56%

Edmonton Griesbach 36 24 37 3 0 52%

Edmonton Manning 46 26 24 3 1 78%

Edmonton Mill Woods 38 41 15 6 0 55%

Edmonton Riverbend 45 28 24 3 0 75%

Edmonton Strathcona 36 9 54 2 0 76%

Edmonton West 46 38 13 3 0 61%

Edmonton--Wetaskiwin 57 24 16 3 0 90%

Foothills 73 12 11 3 0 99%

Fort McMurray--Cold Lake 44 42 9 5 0 54%

Grande Prairie--Mackenzie 70 10 17 3 1 98%

Lakeland 70 15 12 3 0 99%

Lethbridge 54 18 24 4 0 88%

Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner 56 27 15 3 0 88%

Peace River--Westlock 67 15 15 3 0 98%

Red Deer--Lacombe 72 11 14 3 0 99%

Red Deer--Mountain View 68 14 14 4 0 98%

Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan 44 18 13 3 23 80%

St. Albert--Edmonton 41 15 15 3 25 75%

Sturgeon River--Parkland 61 22 14 3 0 94%

Yellowhead 60 28 6 3 3 90%

British Columbia

Abbotsford 49 27 18 6 0 81%

Burnaby North--Seymour 36 26 28 10 0 62%

Burnaby South 27 28 40 5 0 69%

Cariboo--Prince George 33 29 33 5 0 51%

Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola 38 27 23 12 0 67%

Chilliwack--Hope 42 29 23 7 0 70%

Cloverdale--Langley City 39 35 20 6 0 57%

Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam 33 30 32 5 0 53%

Courtenay--Alberni 34 21 31 13 1 55%

Cowichan--Malahat--Langford 32 18 31 15 4 51%

Delta 25 51 20 4 0 85%

Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke 22 23 34 19 2 66%

Fleetwood--Port Kells 35 38 22 5 0 54%

Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo 42 15 36 7 0 60%

Kelowna--Lake Country 45 34 21 0 0 68%

Kootenay--Columbia 39 18 33 10 0 60%

Langley--Aldergrove 49 25 19 7 0 83%

Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon 45 23 26 7 0 77%

Nanaimo--Ladysmith 26 22 30 21 0 56%

New Westminster--Burnaby 27 25 42 5 0 73%

North Island--Powell River 29 23 35 13 0 59%

North Okanagan--Shuswap 40 23 31 7 0 64%

North Vancouver 31 45 11 12 1 71%

Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge 36 24 34 6 0 54%

Port Moody--Coquitlam 33 23 38 6 0 57%

Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies 50 15 25 9 0 84%

Richmond Centre 37 43 14 5 0 60%

Saanich--Gulf Islands 23 14 9 54 0 89%

Skeena--Bulkley Valley 29 11 55 5 0 86%

South Okanagan--West Kootenay 33 22 36 7 3 54%

South Surrey--White Rock 36 41 17 6 0 59%

Steveston--Richmond East 36 41 17 6 0 58%

Surrey Centre 22 42 30 4 1 69%

Surrey--Newton 21 53 23 3 0 88%

Vancouver Centre 13 57 16 14 0 95%

Vancouver East 13 25 52 10 0 86%

Vancouver Granville 27 39 27 7 0 69%

Vancouver Kingsway 18 39 39 5 0 50%

Vancouver Quadra 18 70 8 4 0 98%

Vancouver South 28 47 16 6 2 77%

Victoria 15 33 39 13 0 60%

West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country 30 41 15 13 0 67%

Manitoba

Brandon--Souris 54 17 21 8 0 91%

Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley 38 44 13 4 0 60%

Churchill--Keewatinook Aski 20 45 32 3 0 70%

Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa 53 20 21 6 0 90%

Elmwood--Transcona 34 28 34 4 0 50%

Kildonan--St. Paul 47 24 25 3 0 82%

Portage--Lisgar 64 20 9 8 0 96%

Provencher 60 21 16 4 0 94%

Saint Boniface--Saint Vital 31 47 18 4 0 74%

Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman 57 16 22 5 0 92%

Winnipeg Centre 21 30 40 9 0 66%

Winnipeg North 15 65 19 2 0 97%

Winnipeg South 28 50 18 4 0 81%

Winnipeg South Centre 21 67 10 3 0 97%

New Brunswick

Acadie--Bathurst 11 31 58 0 0 86%

Beauséjour 17 62 15 6 0 97%

Fredericton 30 43 14 13 0 70%

Fundy Royal 40 26 24 10 0 72%

Madawaska--Restigouche 21 60 13 3 3 94%

Miramichi--Grand Lake 31 46 18 5 0 73%

Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 19 55 20 6 0 92%

New Brunswick Southwest 38 31 20 10 0 61%

Saint John--Rothesay 36 37 22 5 0 51%

Tobique--Mactaquac 42 36 17 5 0 59%

Newfoundland & Labrador

Avalon 16 49 14 3 17 90%

Bonavista--Burin--Trinity 15 75 9 1 0 99%

Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame 12 79 8 1 0 100%

Labrador 20 67 13 0 0 97%

Long Range Mountains 12 77 9 1 1 100%

St. John's East 15 18 65 2 0 97%

St. John's South--Mount Pearl 13 53 33 1 0 79%

Nova Scotia

Cape Breton--Canso 16 67 12 5 0 98%

Central Nova 33 43 17 8 0 65%

Cumberland--Colchester 33 53 7 7 0 78%

Dartmouth--Cole Harbour 13 58 24 6 0 91%

Halifax 10 47 36 7 0 66%

Halifax West 15 60 19 6 0 95%

Kings--Hants 18 64 12 5 0 97%

Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook 21 25 46 8 0 80%

South Shore--St. Margarets 26 38 28 7 0 66%

Sydney--Victoria 19 65 12 5 0 97%

West Nova 24 62 9 5 0 93%

Northwest Territories

Northwest Territories 26 37 33 4 0 56%

Nunavut

Nunavut 35 51 12 2 0 74%

Ontario

Ajax 35 50 13 2 0 72%

Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 30 24 42 4 0 69%

Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill 36 49 11 3 0 69%

Barrie--Innisfil 49 28 16 6 0 80%

Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte 46 31 16 6 0 73%

Bay of Quinte 42 36 17 4 0 59%

Beaches--East York 16 51 28 4 0 82%

Brampton Centre 38 43 16 4 0 59%

Brampton East 31 45 19 4 0 71%

Brampton North 35 47 16 1 0 68%

Brampton South 32 55 11 2 1 83%

Brampton West 31 55 12 2 0 83%

Brantford--Brant 39 33 24 4 0 59%

Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound 40 39 15 5 0 51%

Burlington 41 42 14 3 0 51%

Cambridge 41 40 14 4 0 52%

Carleton 41 43 11 4 0 53%

Chatham-Kent--Leamington 44 34 19 3 0 66%

Davenport 10 48 38 3 0 66%

Don Valley East 26 59 13 2 0 90%

Don Valley North 26 58 14 1 0 90%

Don Valley West 32 56 9 3 0 84%

Dufferin--Caledon 49 25 10 15 0 82%

Durham 45 31 19 5 0 71%

Eglinton--Lawrence 36 49 13 3 0 71%

Elgin--Middlesex--London 49 27 20 3 0 81%

Essex 37 27 32 3 0 58%

Etobicoke Centre 38 51 8 2 1 71%

Etobicoke North 21 64 14 0 0 96%

Etobicoke--Lakeshore 33 50 15 3 0 76%

Flamborough--Glanbrook 47 32 13 7 0 72%

Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 35 51 11 3 0 75%

Guelph 26 51 17 6 0 84%

Haldimand--Norfolk 38 44 14 3 0 59%

Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock 51 26 18 5 0 84%

Hamilton Centre 24 29 47 0 0 76%

Hamilton East--Stoney Creek 32 27 38 3 0 60%

Hamilton Mountain 27 32 38 3 0 59%

Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas 26 53 15 5 0 86%

Hastings--Lennox and Addington 44 34 17 4 1 66%

Humber River--Black Creek 14 69 17 1 0 98%

Huron--Bruce 45 32 20 3 1 70%

Kanata--Carleton 39 50 8 3 0 66%

Kenora 38 35 24 4 0 55%

King--Vaughan 40 50 9 2 0 66%

Kingston and the Islands 23 53 20 3 0 88%

Kitchener Centre 28 47 21 4 0 76%

Kitchener South--Hespeler 42 36 18 4 0 59%

Kitchener--Conestoga 39 42 15 4 0 55%

Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 49 28 19 4 0 79%

Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston 44 36 15 5 1 63%

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes 50 31 14 5 0 78%

London North Centre 31 50 16 4 0 78%

London West 34 45 17 4 0 68%

London--Fanshawe 30 26 40 3 0 66%

Markham--Stouffville 36 56 6 2 0 80%

Markham--Thornhill 29 56 12 3 0 86%

Markham--Unionville 31 54 13 3 0 83%

Milton 40 45 11 3 0 57%

Mississauga Centre 31 53 13 3 0 82%

Mississauga East--Cooksville 30 57 11 2 0 86%

Mississauga--Erin Mills 33 54 10 3 0 81%

Mississauga--Lakeshore 35 53 10 2 0 76%

Mississauga--Malton 27 54 15 3 1 85%

Mississauga--Streetsville 32 55 10 3 0 83%

Nepean 38 48 11 4 0 66%

Newmarket--Aurora 42 43 11 4 0 52%

Niagara Centre 34 28 35 3 0 50%

Niagara Falls 42 33 21 4 0 64%

Niagara West 47 29 19 4 0 76%

Nickel Belt 16 37 43 4 0 59%

Nipissing--Timiskaming 28 53 14 5 0 84%

Northumberland--Peterborough South 42 38 16 4 0 56%

Oakville 37 52 8 2 1 72%

Oakville North--Burlington 40 45 11 3 0 57%

Orléans 31 54 11 4 0 82%

Oshawa 48 17 31 4 0 75%

Ottawa Centre 20 37 37 5 0 50%

Ottawa South 21 65 11 2 0 96%

Ottawa West--Nepean 30 52 14 2 2 81%

Ottawa--Vanier 19 59 18 4 0 95%

Oxford 53 21 22 5 0 89%

Parkdale--High Park 11 54 32 3 0 82%

Parry Sound--Muskoka 48 23 20 9 0 84%

Perth--Wellington 36 39 19 6 0 55%

Peterborough--Kawartha 32 47 17 3 0 73%

Pickering--Uxbridge 30 54 12 3 0 83%

Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke 43 24 10 2 20 78%

Richmond Hill 30 56 11 3 0 84%

Sarnia--Lambton 45 28 24 3 0 75%

Sault Ste. Marie 32 42 23 4 0 66%

Scarborough Centre 32 51 16 2 0 78%

Scarborough North 22 49 27 1 1 80%

Scarborough Southwest 23 49 24 3 1 84%

Scarborough--Agincourt 21 66 11 2 0 96%

Scarborough--Guildwood 23 57 17 2 1 91%

Scarborough--Rouge Park 24 54 19 2 0 88%

Simcoe North 43 36 15 6 0 62%

Simcoe--Grey 48 29 16 7 0 78%

Spadina--Fort York 14 50 33 3 0 75%

St. Catharines 40 38 18 4 0 53%

Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry 50 34 14 2 0 74%

Sudbury 24 42 30 3 0 69%

Thornhill 47 42 9 3 0 57%

Thunder Bay--Rainy River 21 40 36 2 0 55%

Thunder Bay--Superior North 25 32 40 3 0 61%

Timmins--James Bay 14 26 55 4 0 88%

Toronto Centre 15 54 27 3 0 86%

Toronto--Danforth 12 34 48 7 0 71%

Toronto--St. Paul's 21 62 14 4 0 95%

University--Rosedale 17 49 31 3 0 77%

Vaughan--Woodbridge 40 50 8 2 0 66%

Waterloo 29 50 18 2 0 80%

Wellington--Halton Hills 52 31 10 7 0 79%

Whitby 49 28 18 5 0 80%

Willowdale 32 53 13 3 0 81%

Windsor West 23 47 28 2 0 78%

Windsor--Tecumseh 29 26 41 3 0 69%

York Centre 36 47 13 2 2 67%

York South--Weston 17 54 27 2 0 86%

York--Simcoe 56 22 16 6 0 91%

Prince Edward Island

Cardigan 17 74 6 2 0 99%

Charlottetown 16 65 16 3 0 97%

Egmont 31 58 9 3 0 86%

Malpeque 19 67 9 5 0 97%

Québec

Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 26 23 30 6 16 0 56%

Abitibi--Témiscamingue 13 15 38 2 32 0 60%

Ahuntsic-Cartierville 14 43 23 3 17 0 79%

Alfred-Pellan 12 43 25 2 18 0 77%

Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation 19 27 29 3 20 0 54%

Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia 15 43 13 3 26 0 75%

Beauce 53 22 18 2 5 0 89%

Beauport--Limoilou 32 14 32 3 19 0 50%

Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix 26 13 27 3 30 0 55%

Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel 15 22 24 4 34 0 66%

Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis 50 13 22 2 13 0 87%

Beloeil--Chambly 9 21 30 2 26 12 56%

Berthier--Maskinongé 15 28 27 3 26 0 53%

Bourassa 7 64 16 2 12 0 97%

Brome--Missisquoi 12 43 25 3 17 0 77%

Brossard--Saint-Lambert 12 48 23 2 15 0 84%

Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles 37 15 31 2 15 0 59%

Châteauguay--Lacolle 14 21 35 3 28 0 62%

Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 31 13 26 2 27 1 57%

Compton--Stanstead 14 27 32 4 24 0 58%

Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle 13 53 22 4 8 0 89%

Drummond 20 20 37 3 21 0 73%

Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 18 33 20 3 26 0 61%

Gatineau 10 32 43 2 14 0 66%

Hochelaga 9 27 33 3 29 0 57%

Honoré-Mercier 11 55 19 2 13 0 93%

Hull--Aylmer 11 42 37 3 7 0 58%

Joliette 12 15 34 6 32 0 54%

Jonquière 42 7 31 2 18 0 68%

La Pointe-de-l'Île 10 26 33 3 29 0 56%

La Prairie 13 36 30 2 20 0 58%

Lac-Saint-Jean 50 7 22 1 19 0 87%

Lac-Saint-Louis 24 55 15 4 2 0 89%

LaSalle--Émard--Verdun 11 45 26 3 16 0 78%

Laurentides--Labelle 11 28 29 4 28 0 52%

Laurier--Sainte-Marie 4 26 36 3 29 2 61%

Laval--Les Îles 17 41 29 2 11 0 69%

Lévis--Lotbinière 47 11 26 2 13 0 80%

Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne 11 36 27 3 22 0 64%

Longueuil--Saint-Hubert 11 25 35 3 26 0 65%

Louis-Hébert 24 28 25 2 21 0 56%

Louis-Saint-Laurent 44 14 27 2 13 0 76%

Manicouagan 16 14 35 4 31 0 56%

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 13 32 31 3 21 0 52%

Mégantic--L'Érable 55 12 17 2 14 0 94%

Mirabel 12 24 33 4 27 0 59%

Montarville 12 28 30 3 26 2 52%

Montcalm 10 14 40 6 30 0 64%

Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup 43 13 24 2 18 0 77%

Mount Royal 28 54 9 2 7 0 85%

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount 10 50 25 8 6 0 84%

Outremont 9 44 34 3 10 0 66%

Papineau 10 49 22 1 17 0 86%

Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères 10 22 31 3 32 0 51%

Pierrefonds--Dollard 24 51 17 4 3 0 86%

Pontiac 19 40 30 3 8 0 65%

Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier 0 16 30 4 20 31 51%

Québec 21 20 29 3 26 0 56%

Repentigny 10 19 38 3 31 0 62%

Richmond--Arthabaska 50 9 23 2 15 0 86%

Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques 17 22 29 3 28 0 52%

Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 12 24 34 4 26 0 63%

Rivière-du-Nord 11 16 42 3 29 0 70%

Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie 6 22 37 3 32 0 58%

Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot 20 13 39 3 24 0 72%

Saint-Jean 13 21 34 4 29 0 57%

Saint-Laurent 14 66 13 2 4 0 98%

Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel 11 65 15 2 7 0 98%

Saint-Maurice--Champlain 20 25 27 3 25 0 53%

Salaberry--Suroît 17 21 30 3 29 0 52%

Shefford 18 21 36 3 22 0 71%

Sherbrooke 11 23 30 3 33 0 54%

Terrebonne 11 17 38 5 30 0 62%

Thérèse-De Blainville 12 23 35 3 27 0 62%

Trois-Rivières 16 21 36 3 24 1 69%

Vaudreuil--Soulanges 19 25 29 4 23 0 55%

Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs 12 47 24 4 14 0 82%

Vimy 14 39 27 3 18 0 68%

Saskatchewan

Battlefords--Lloydminster 60 11 25 4 0 92%

Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek 47 18 31 4 0 74%

Cypress Hills--Grasslands 59 18 19 4 0 94%

Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River 41 16 39 4 0 55%

Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan 43 19 35 4 0 63%

Prince Albert 55 12 29 3 0 85%

Regina--Lewvan 40 27 29 4 0 66%

Regina--Qu'Appelle 47 15 34 4 0 70%

Regina--Wascana 18 71 9 2 0 98%

Saskatoon West 32 30 31 7 0 50%

Saskatoon--Grasswood 46 20 31 3 0 72%

Saskatoon--University 34 29 34 3 0 50%

Souris--Moose Mountain 62 17 16 4 0 96%

Yorkton--Melville 57 21 19 3 0 92%

Yukon

Yukon 27 48 20 5 0 80%

More Info

More information about strategic voting.

All projections and strategic voting recommendations displayed on this page are calculated by an impartial algorithm. The code is on GitHub. You can download and run it on your own computer if you like. The model forecasts the popular vote in all 338 federal ridings by starting with the 2011 election results and applying an adjustment calculated from the latest regional polling data.

Election forecasting is not an exact science. Many of the riding projections listed on this page will turn out to be wrong. The data is provided under the philosophy that an educated guess is better than no information at all.

You can register to vote online. It's fast and easy.