Nick Coltrain | Des Moines Register

Olivia Sun, Des Moines Register

© Copyright 2020, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.

Republicans seeking a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives hold an advantage in each of Iowa’s four congressional districts, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

In each district, more likely voters say they’ll vote for a generic Republican over a generic Democrat, though in none does the Republican hold a clear majority of support.

The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., did not name specific House candidates. Rather, it asked, "If the elections for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your congressional district?" and gave respondents a choice between the Republican and Democratic candidate.

If the numbers hold to the general election, it would be a stark reversal of Democratic fortunes. Democrats flipped two Republican seats in 2018 to hold the majority of Iowa’s congressional districts for the first time since the redistricting that followed the 2010 census.

The latest poll sampled 800 Iowans, including 667 likely general election voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the full sample and plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for likely voters.

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The 2nd Congressional District, which represents roughly the southeast quarter of the state, including Iowa City and Davenport, is perhaps the most dire showing for Democrats. The party has won that seat by comfortable margins since redistricting, and this poll shows 49% of likely voters are more likely to vote for or are leaning toward a generic Republican, versus 41% for a Democrat.

The full generic-ballot breakdown:

1st Congressional District: 49% Republican, 46% Democrat

2nd Congressional District: 49% Republican, 41% Democrat

3rd Congressional District: 43% Republican, 42% Democrat

4th Congressional District: 51% Republican, 40% Democrat

Statewide, a clear gender gap emerges in support as well: 52% of women support or lean toward supporting Democrats, and 38% feel the same about Republicans. For men, 58% support or lean toward supporting Republicans, and 32% feel the same about Democrats.

The partisan divide is as strong as ever in the poll. No Democrat said they would vote for a Republican, and only 2% of Republicans said they would vote across party lines. Independent voters, however, are nearly split — 41% to 39% — with a slight favor toward a generic Republican.

In 2018, U.S. Rep. Cindy Axne was the first Democratic to be elected to the House from the 3rd District since it was redrawn. She had an advantage of about 2 percentage points in election night results over then-incumbent David Young, who previously was elected by double digits.

In this poll, a Republican holds a 1 percentage point lead over a Democrat in the 3rd District.

Sarah Kehlenbeck lives in Axne’s district and voted for Young in 2018. She’s not affiliated with a party and has split her votes across party lines for as long as she can remember. She feels the district is up for grabs again this cycle.

“Everybody thought that Hillary was going to be elected, and I think when Trump got elected, everybody was surprised,” said Kehlenbeck of the 2016 presidential election in which Republican Donald Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton. “I mean, seriously, I think the Republicans were surprised, and the Democrats were probably surprised and not terribly happy, either. And I just think there was kind of a backlash there” in 2018.

Kehlenbeck describes herself as a moderate on social issues but more conservative on fiscal issues. She plans to support Young again this year.

In addition to aligning with her issues — Kehlenbeck believes abortion should be available only when medically necessary and that politicians shouldn’t just “throw money at problems,” which she associates with Axne — Young’s constituent services when he was in office earned Kehlenbeck's praise.

“I think that Axne struck a nerve” two years ago, Kehlenbeck said. “… It wasn’t a landslide for her, but she won fair and square. So it'll be interesting to see what happens. I mean, maybe David Young's time has passed. And maybe he won't be able to garner enough support to get back into office. You don't know. I think that the voting populace is kind of fickle.”

USA TODAY NETWORK GRAPHIC

State of Iowa's congressional seats

Voters won’t be deciding between generic Republicans and Democrats, of course. They’ll be voting for or against individuals associated with the parties.

The 1st Congressional District roughly represents the northeast quadrant of the state and includes Cedar Rapids, Dubuque and Waterloo.

Freshman U.S. Rep. Abby Finkenauer unseated Republican Rod Blum in 2018. Republican Ashley Hinson, a current member of the Iowa House of Representatives, is mounting a challenge against Finkenauer this November.

The seat has swung between parties since 2012, and Finkenauer won it by 5 percentage points in 2018. Blum won re-election by more than 7 percentage points in 2016.

The 2nd Congressional District, which roughly covers the southeast quadrant of the state and includes Iowa City and Davenport, has been reliably Democratic. U.S. Rep. Dave Loebsack’s smallest margin of victory there was 5 percentage points; he won it by 12 percentage points in 2018. Loebsack is retiring after this term.

Former state Sen. Rita Hart, who was the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor in 2018, hopes to keep the district blue. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, a frequent Republican challenger for the seat, holds a fundraising advantage over her top interparty rival, former U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling of Illinois.

Republicans represented the 3rd District, which roughly covers the southwest quadrant of the state and includes Des Moines and Council Bluffs, for much of the decade. Axne flipped it in 2018 by the narrowest margin of any Congressional race on the current map. Young is seeking to reclaim his former job.

The 4th District, which is roughly the northwest quadrant and includes Sioux City and Ames, has been represented by U.S. Rep. Steve King since its inception.

In 2014 and 2016, he was elected by 20-plus percentage points. He won a relative squeaker against Democrat J.D. Scholten in 2018 by about 3 percentage points.

Scholten is running for the seat again, and several Republicans are challenging King, whose controversial views have drawn condemnation, including from within his party. Current state Sen. Randy Feenstra leads that pack in terms of fundraising; Bret Richards has raised a considerable amount, as well.

About this poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted March 2-5, 2020, for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 800 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cellphone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data.

Questions based on the sample of 800 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, and questions based on the sample of 667 likely voters in the 2020 general election have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 or 3.8 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to the Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.

Nick Coltrain is a politics and data reporter for the Register. Reach him at ncoltrain@registermedia.com or at 515-284-8361.