All price data were collected on 01/13 12:00

Outlook for 2020: European Central Bank promotes central digital currencies, China implements education and advances digital RMB research and development

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde supports the European Central Bank’s active participation in the development of the Central Bank’s currency (CBDC). In order to meet the demand for faster and cheaper cross-border payments, the European Central Bank will continue to review the feasibility, advantages, and disadvantages of the CBDC. China embraces blockchain technology and implements education on campus. According to Sina Finance, the Ministry of Education of the Mainland will release the “National Education Plan for Construction of Textbooks for Primary and Middle Schools (2019–2022)” recently issued by the National Teaching Materials Committee of China. In terms of teaching materials for colleges and universities, a batch of brand-new teaching materials will be compiled, including big data, artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain, and other fields. The People’s Bank of China announced the design structure of digital personal currency last year. While endorsing blockchain technology, the Chinese government has strengthened financial crime crackdowns. This year, at the working meeting of the People’s Bank of China, the development roadmap of 2020 was delineated -

“Do a good job of piloting fintech innovation supervision; continue to steadily advance the development of fiat digital currencies.” The development of blockchain applications in 2020 will involve more governments and large institutions, which is an important issue that investors must pay attention to.

Bottom-up phase suspended, BTC gives red envelope for spring

BTC has fluctuated between $6,500 and $7,500 for more than a month. It has repeatedly tested the pressure before being pushed back into the shock range. The downward test support has successfully held at $6,400 twice, and on 1/3, fallen to a near two-week low again at $6,855 (Figure 1A). The overall market value of cryptocurrencies reached a low of 184.2 billion USD, and then the trend quickly reversed upward and continued to rise for five days, with a total increase of 22% (Figure 1B), up to $8,462. While this marked the official breakthrough of the $7,500 pressure interval, the suspension phase did not seem to end, a wave of back to $7,600 quickly followed. Most currencies on the market still seemed to be in a long-term downward trend. Although BTC’s lead rise is not large enough and not long-lasting, the fall has also been supported by the previous high (Figure 1C). Turning the previous resistance into support is still the best recent positive signal.

Figure 1: BTC/USD (BitMEX) Recent trends (30 min line). Source: AIcoin.

Bincentive’s Selected Strategies

Trend strategies should have good credits in these two weeks, such as EMA breakout, Momentum_Extremum, Momentum_Continuity. The uptrend of this wave is only about five days. The recent market trend has not been able to mark a new pattern. The rise or fall always comes and goes quickly. Positions (representing the total number of long or short circulating contracts in the market) continue to rise, and BTC’s price has now reached the upper edge of the daily downward channel, and may enter another wave of long and short fights. The halving market that everyone is expecting has exhausted or failed to stimulate the rise. If there is no further change in the international political and economic discussions, which bring clear directional signals, prices will return to a balanced level.