Today, Nate Cohn from The Upshot blog of the NY Times released an article that attempts to estimate the percentage Clinton and Sanders will get in each remaining contest for the democratic nomination. It factors in everything — caucus vs primary, demographics, affluence, open vs closed, etc. Predictably, Hillary does best in the Northeast NYC metro area and California, while Sanders runs up the score in Midwestern and Appalachian states. If the states follow the pattern they have so far, with Hillary Clinton winning African-American and wealthy white votes, while Sanders does best with working class whites, the picture isn’t pretty for him — Hillary will expand her delegate lead to 341 before the end of the contests rather than Sanders chipping away at it. According to Cohn, this is what we can expect demographically moving forward:

Clinton ends up ahead by 341 pledged delegates in Cohn’s scenario

Let’s say, however, that Sanders does better than he has been. Let’s say he dumps millions in every remaining primary and outperforms expectations each time, with every demographic group. What then would his delegate target be for each state? I analyzed this assuming he greatly improves with every demographic group, builds strong momentum, and ends up getting much closer in every state favorable to Clinton, even turning some into wins. Meanwhile, he crushes his own favorable states by much larger margins. Instead of Cohn’s model, my heavily pro-Sanders model turns the following Clinton wins into losses:

Connecticut 20 pt swing from Clinton +10 to Clinton -10

Delaware 26 pt swing from Clinton + 16 to Clinton -10

California 16 pt swing from Clinton +6 to Clinton -10

New Mexico 22 pt swing from Clinton +2 to Clinton -20

New York 18 point swing from Clinton +16 to Clinton -2

Pennsylvania 20 pt swing from Clinton +10 to Clinton -10

Notice that these are very large swings, and in states that will be very difficult for Sanders to win demographically. Delaware, for example, is 28% African-American, and New York is only around 60% white, as well as Clinton’s home state. Just changing these results though leaves Clinton ending with a comfortable +157 lead in pledged delegates, despite leaving her with only 2 wins on the board. Continuing then, let’s say she still wins her MOST favorable states, such as Maryland (40% African American population and white demographics similar to Northern Virginia where Sanders lost badly), but Sanders lowers the margin considerably due to heavy spending and momentum, as well as making large inroads with wealthy establishment white voters and African-Americans:

Maryland 16 pt swing from Clinton +22 to Clinton +6

New Jersey 16 pt swing from Clinton +22 to Clinton +6

This means Clinton has not only lost all but 2 states going forward, but has narrowed her 2 wins to near ties. Still, Clinton ends up 121 pledged delegates ahead. So, moving forward, let’s also assume Sanders has blowouts of his favorable states. Remember, aside from Wyoming, ND, and SD there are no more caucus states, and Sanders has been unable to get blowouts in ANY primaries other than Vermont. We will assume, however, that he overcomes this with his margins growing from:

Wisconsin +2 to +20

Wyoming +26 to +60

Rhode Island +4 to +20

Indiana +2 to +30

West Virginia +8 to +30

Kentucky +2 to +20

Oregon +12 to +30

Montana +26 to +60

North Dakota +26 to +60

South Dakota +4 to +40

Again, it must be repeated that aside from ND, SD, and WY that these are all primaries, and Sanders has been unable to get margins this high in ANY primary state. Furthermore, many of these are closed primaries. That being said, these blowouts, combined with the surprise wins in part 1 and the surprising close margins in part 2 combine for what:

Clinton still leads by 25 pledged delegates while winning only 2 states by close margins

Amazingly, despite this nearly impossible run by Bernie Sanders that would require him to make massive inroads with every single demographic group, including 3 or 4x the margin with non-white voters that has been getting thus far, Hillary Clinton would still win by 25 pledged delegates.

So in summary: what is Bernie’s roadmap forward? He must get above the following percentages in these states going forward:

Wisconsin: 60

Wyoming: 80

New York: 52

Connecticut: 55

Delaware: 55

Maryland: 47

Pennsylvania: 55

Rhode Island: 60

Indiana: 65

Guam: 50

West Virginia: 65

Kentucky: 60

Oregon: 65

Virgin Islands: 50

Puerto Rico: 50

California: 55

Montana: 80

New Jersey: 47

New Mexico: 60

North Dakota: 80

South Dakota: 70

DC: 50

If he can beat all of these popular vote percentage targets to make up 25 pledged delegates somewhere, he can win the pledged count and the nomination. Each time he gets less than this, especially in larger states, he falls behind. Considering how high these requirements are, including him winning New York and California and getting razor thin margins in MD and NJ, Bernie Sanders chances of winning the delegate count are about as likely as Hillary Clinton getting hit by a bus on the way to the convention, which is probably the only way he could become the democratic nominee.