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--> A midday take on what's happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.*

*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha--breaks down crying hysterically.

The Hill's 12:30 Report: Decision day in Iowa | What each Democrat needs | Final poll shows Buttigieg, Sanders rising | Sights and sounds from the trail | Impeachment trial moves to closing arguments | Trump preps for State of the Union | What to expect | Democrats gear up for protests during speech | Latest on Greyhound bus shooting | National Carrot Cake Day

Before you keep reading, here is your theme song for today's newsletter --> http://bit.ly/3b8HcbN

^I've had this playing all morning

NEWS OF THE MORNING

It's happening! It's really happening!!!:

See? She gets it.

The 2020 presidential election is officially kicking off today with the Iowa Caucuses. (Eeek!) http://bit.ly/2Sfnsuo

What time: The caucuses begin at 8 p.m. EST (7 p.m. in Iowa). They generally last around an hour. https://n.pr/2RNJg1g

Who is leading in Iowa: Sen. Bernie Sanders Bernie SandersSenate Republicans signal openness to working with Biden Hillicon Valley: DOJ indicts Chinese, Malaysian hackers accused of targeting over 100 organizations | GOP senators raise concerns over Oracle-TikTok deal | QAnon awareness jumps in new poll Schumer, Sanders call for Senate panel to address election security MORE (I-Vt.) has been leading by a small margin in Iowa polls, but the caucuses could go any way tonight. List of the recent Iowa polls, via Real Clear Politics: http://bit.ly/2tpzY21

THIS GRAPHIC REMINDS ME OF THE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL GAME 'FOUR CORNERS' -- DOES ANYONE ELSE REMEMBER THAT?:

The New York Times has a fascinating visual of what happens at an Iowa Caucus. It's worth checking out: https://nyti.ms/2Sa6jlI

For context: Here's a graphic of who won each Iowa county in 2016: http://bit.ly/36VqAkq

HELPFUL READ -- WHAT EACH CANDIDATE NEEDS TONIGHT:

Via The Hill's Niall Stanage from Des Moines:

- Sanders: A win.

- Former Vice President Joe Biden Joe BidenThe Memo: Warning signs flash for Trump on debates Senate Republicans signal openness to working with Biden National postal mail handlers union endorses Biden MORE: To avoid disaster.

- Sen. Elizabeth Warren Elizabeth WarrenNo new taxes for the ultra rich — fix bad tax policy instead Democrats back away from quick reversal of Trump tax cuts It's time for newspapers to stop endorsing presidential candidates MORE (D-Mass.): A competitive position, preferably top three. A Warren victory here on Monday would be a surprise -- but not a seismic shock.

- Former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg Pete ButtigiegBogeymen of the far left deserve a place in any Biden administration Overnight Defense: Woodward book causes new firestorm | Book says Trump lashed out at generals, told Woodward about secret weapons system | US withdrawing thousands of troops from Iraq A socially and environmentally just way to fight climate change MORE (D): To beat Biden.

- Sen. Amy Klobuchar Amy KlobucharEPA delivers win for ethanol industry angered by waivers to refiners It's time for newspapers to stop endorsing presidential candidates Biden marks anniversary of the Violence Against Women Act, knocks Trump and McConnell MORE (D-Minn.): To spring a surprise.

Reasoning for each: http://bit.ly/2v3j09S

Just released -- the final Iowa poll:

Via The Hill's Reid Wilson, former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have a small lead in a new poll released on the day of the caucuses. http://bit.ly/2Oo5Ivv

The numbers:

Buttigieg: 19 percent

Sanders: 17 percent

Former Vice President Joe Biden: 15 percent

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.): 15 percent

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.): 11 percent

Businessman Tom Steyer: 3 percent

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard Tulsi GabbardRepublicans call on DOJ to investigate Netflix over 'Cuties' film Hispanic Caucus campaign arm endorses slate of non-Hispanic candidates Gabbard says she 'was not invited to participate in any way' in Democratic convention MORE (D-Hawaii): 3 percent of the vote

No one else polled above 1 percent.

Who conducted the poll: The Democratic group Focus on Rural America by party pollster David Binder conducted the poll.

The full poll results: http://bit.ly/2SkUCsG

It's Monday, Feb. 3. I'm Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what's coming up. Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com -- and follow along on Twitter @CateMartel and Facebook.

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SIGHTS AND SOUNDS FROM IOWA

This was a weird moment:

Warren plays it off like a pro, telling him that yes, she will be his candidate. Turns at the end to her husband Bruce and asks, "Are you okay with this, sweetie?" We are back on track and @ewarren is taking questions from the audience. https://t.co/K24FMMkYzu pic.twitter.com/iCxbLSvuJw — Tara Prindiville (@taraprindiville) February 1, 2020

Watch: http://bit.ly/3984A79

Tidbit -- Bruuuuutal: "Guy interrupts Biden rally. 'My wife left me.' Asks for how to get her back. Biden says he'll talk afterwards. When guy won't sit down, Biden says 'I'm beginning to see why your wife left you.'" (Via The Washington Examiner's Tim Carney) Photo of the interaction: http://bit.ly/31k4jvv

Pass the empties: "This Des Moines spot is so full waiting for [Sen. Warren] the bar just asked everyone to pass up their empties so they can keep serving." Photo: http://bit.ly/2tqrLL1

Aw, a baby with ear protection at a campaign rally: http://bit.ly/31iWsye

It's a party in Iowa:

Klobuchar starts: "I guess we should always have events in breweries at 10am" https://t.co/Ff3HCNwqQF — Al Weaver (@alweaver22) February 1, 2020

Photo from an Andrew Yang Andrew YangDoctor who allegedly assaulted Evelyn Yang arrested on federal charges The Hill's Campaign Report: Biden weighs in on police shootings | Who's moderating the debates | Trump trails in post-convention polls Buttigieg launches his own podcast MORE event at a restaurant: Via Buzzfeed's Matt Berman: http://bit.ly/2RVYzFc

The crowd of 1,108 for Sanders's last event before the caucuses: Here's a photo from Bloomberg's Jennifer Epstein: http://bit.ly/31k4xTc

Photo of Warren's overflow crowd in Infianola, Iowa: Via The Washington Post's Annie Linskey: http://bit.ly/2GVyhw9

Pete Buttigieg went for a morning run today: Here’s a photo: http://bit.ly/37PCnlv

An Iowan asked Sanders's wife, Jane Sanders, about Bernie's party membership: "At a campaign stop in Des Moines, a @BernieSanders supporter asked Jane Sanders what they should tell people who ask whether Sanders is a Democrat. She points out that Vermont doesn't have party registration and he's caucused with Democrats in Congress for three decades." (Via CNN's Jeff Zeleny) http://bit.ly/36S7ziS

Op-ed: http://bit.ly/31jYuOq

IN CONGRESS

Closing time, time for you to go out go out into the world:

--> http://bit.ly/2Uo0xQa

The Senate is hearing closing arguments today to conclude the impeachment trial against President Trump Donald John TrumpBarr criticizes DOJ in speech declaring all agency power 'is invested in the attorney general' Military leaders asked about using heat ray on protesters outside White House: report Powell warns failure to reach COVID-19 deal could 'scar and damage' economy MORE.

What to expect: http://bit.ly/2GMswkD

When is the final vote to acquit?: Wednesday. http://bit.ly/31mbyTp

SIGHTS AND SOUNDS:

Senator/conductor: "[Sen. Pat Roberts Charles (Pat) Patrick RobertsThe Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by National Industries for the Blind - Trump seeks to flip 'Rage' narrative; Dems block COVID-19 bill GOP senators say coronavirus deal dead until after election Trump says he'll sign USPS funding if Democrats make concessions MORE (R-Kansas)] stops to conduct the anti-Trump protestors singing 'God Bless America' to senators entering the Capitol" Video: http://bit.ly/2OoIAwY

These sketches are well done:

Also happening on Capitol Hill -- Hello and welcome to my thoughts and opinions:

President Trump is giving his third State of the Union address tomorrow evening amid an already busy week in politics. http://bit.ly/31mbyTp

Timing: The vote is happening the day after the Iowa Caucuses and the day before the final impeachment trial vote.

This will be an interesting dynamic to watch: "Trump will speak from the House chamber on Tuesday night, providing his first face-to-face meeting with Speaker Nancy Pelosi Nancy PelosiPowell warns failure to reach COVID-19 deal could 'scar and damage' economy Overnight Defense: House to vote on military justice bill spurred by Vanessa Guillén death | Biden courts veterans after Trump's military controversies Intelligence chief says Congress will get some in-person election security briefings MORE (D-Calif.) since House Democrats voted last year to impeach him on two articles: abusing his power with his actions to Ukraine and obstructing Congress in its investigations of those actions."

What to expect from Trump's address: "Trump is expected to use the speech to tout his vision as Washington increasingly turns its attention to the looming November election, where the president is fighting to hold onto the White House and both chambers of Congress are up for grabs."

IN OTHER NEWS

A shooting on a Greyhound bus:

Via The Associated Press, a gunman opened fire on a California Greyhound bus traveling from Los Angeles to San Francisco early this morning, killing one and injuring five. http://bit.ly/393s7Gn

What happened: "A 911 caller reported the shooting at 1:27 a.m. as the bus was on Interstate 5 in a mountainous area between Los Angeles and the San Joaquin Valley, saying a person on board the bus with a gun had shot several passengers, [Sgt. Brian Pennings of the highway patrol said in a telephone interview."

Wow: "'The driver of the bus immediately pulled to the right shoulder and somehow -- we're still trying to figure out to how this happened -- were able to coerce the suspect off of the bus," [Pennings] said. After leaving the gunman behind, the driver continued to the next exit and pulled into the parking lot of a gas station."

The suspect: The suspect was taken into custody, and the motive is still not known.

NOTABLE TWEETS

This gets funnier and funnier every time I watch it:

one time i was my college's mascot for a basketball game.



emphasis on one time pic.twitter.com/N2nULbpNlA — shosh (@shoshmcgosh) January 22, 2020

Watch: http://bit.ly/37UYreA

ON TAP

The Senate is out. The House is in. President Trump and Vice President Pence are in Washington, D.C.

11 a.m. EST: The Senate meets. The Senate's full schedule today: http://bit.ly/2RTiZhV

12:30 p.m. EST: President Trump and Vice President Pence have lunch together in the private dining room.

WHAT TO WATCH

Today: Closing arguments in the Senate impeachment trial against President Trump. Livestream: https://cs.pn/2Op8vVh

NOW FOR THE FUN STUFF...

Today is National Carrot Cake Day.

And because this is one of the best videos I've seen in a while, here's a dog who loves winter activities: http://bit.ly/2tpfiqN