NEW DELHI — The Kashmir Valley, a disputed territory that has led to war between India and Pakistan in the past, is once again bringing the two archrivals to the brink.

In the past few days, hundreds of Kashmiris have been arrested, accused of fueling the insurgency against Indian rule. India has moved thousands of new troops into the valley, where they have taken up positions in towns, along the highways and in snow-dusted apple orchards.

Families are fleeing border areas. Fuel and food supplies are running out. Pakistan and India are firing artillery shells. An Indian government directive ordered doctors to “gear up their Rapid Response Teams” for “any untoward eventuality.” In Pakistan, the military has shifted to high alert.

What are the chances of war?

[On August 5, India revoked Kashmir’s special status.]

Still thankfully low, most analysts say, because neither country really wants it. But both India and Pakistan are nuclear armed, and any escalation between them sends jitters around the world.