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Re: Coin Flip

From:re47@hillaryclinton.com To: tflournoy11@gmail.com, creynolds@hillaryclinton.com CC: john.podesta@gmail.com, ha16@hillaryclinton.com, jpalmieri@hillaryclinton.com, angel@presidentclinton.com Date: 2016-02-02 21:43 Subject: Re: Coin Flip

Yet again, they fundraise off of lies. Christina is pushing this around. On Tue, Feb 2, 2016 at 6:42 PM, tina <tflournoy11@gmail.com> wrote: > And now he's fundraising off of it > Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T > ------------------------------ > *From: * Robby Mook <re47@hillaryclinton.com> > *Date: *Tue, 2 Feb 2016 18:33:31 -0500 > *To: *Tina Flournoy<tflournoy11@gmail.com> > *Cc: *John Podesta<john.podesta@gmail.com>; Huma Abedin< > ha16@hillaryclinton.com>; Jennifer Palmieri<jpalmieri@hillaryclinton.com>; > Angel Urena<angel@presidentclinton.com> > *Subject: *Re: Coin Flip > > Haha! Yes! The exciting news...they have coin flips in Nevada too!! > > On Tue, Feb 2, 2016 at 6:27 PM, tina <tflournoy11@gmail.com> wrote: > >> Did y'all see this >> >> >> From: "Yoon, Robert" <Robert.Yoon@turner.com> >> Date: February 2, 2016 at 5:43:21 PM EST >> Subject: Iowa Caucuses - Coin Flips EXPLAINED! >> [sent to: *CNN Political Plus (TBS)] >> >> >> From CNN Director of Political Research Robert Yoon >> >> for those of you who are interested in the coin flip saga from last >> night's Democratic Iowa caucuses, here is some important context. >> >> Hillary Clinton's narrow margin of victory over Bernie Sanders has >> focused attention on the role of coin flips in determining the final >> results. >> >> Coin flips, more specifically "games of chance," are used in rare >> circumstances at precinct caucuses to adjudicate ties or resolve issues >> created by rounding error. At stake at these precinct-level coin flips is >> the one remaining slot in that precinct for a campaign to send a delegate >> to attend that precinct's county convention. Coin flips are not used to >> decide which candidate wins a state convention delegate or national >> convention delegate. >> >> How many coin flips were there last night? >> The Iowa Democratic Party does not have comprehensive records on how many >> coin flips/games of chance were held last night. However, they do have >> partial records. More than half of the 1681 Democratic caucuses held last >> night used the new Microsoft reporting app. Of those, there were exactly 7 >> county delegates determined by coin flip. The remaining precincts did not >> use the Microsoft app, and instead used traditional phone-line reporting to >> transmit results. In these precincts, there is no records of how many coin >> flips there were. All there is is anecdotal information on these precincts. >> >> Who won these coin flips? >> Of the 7 coin flips/games of chance that were held in precincts using the >> Microsoft app, 6 of those were flips to determine whether a county delegate >> slot went to Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. Of those 6 >> Clinton-vs.-Sanders coin flips, BERNIE SANDERS WON 5 COIN FLIPS; HILLARY >> CLINTON won 1. The 7th coin flip was used to determine whether a county >> delegate slot went to Sanders or Martin O'Malley. SANDERS WON THAT COIN >> FLIP AS WELL. So, in the 7 coin flips that the Iowa Democratic Party has a >> record of, BERNIE SANDERS WON SIX OF THEM (5 against Clinton, 1 against >> O'Malley). >> >> THUS, IT IS INCORRECT TO SAY THAT HILLARY CLINTON WON EVERY COIN FLIP! >> >> As for the less-than-half of the precincts that didn't use the Microsoft >> app, we don't know how many coin flips took place. Only anecdotal >> information is available on these flips, such as the web videos that were >> circulating last night. >> >> Did Hillary Clinton win the Iowa Caucuses thanks to coin flips? >> >> Hillary Clinton won the Iowa caucuses by the equivalent of about 4 state >> delegates. If the anecdotal evidence of Clinton winning 6 coin flips is >> correct, she would have won 6 COUNTY delegates through coin flips (setting >> aside the fact that party records show Bernie Sanders also won 6 county >> delegates as a result of coin flips). There is not a one-to-one correlation >> between county delegates and state delegates, or to national convention >> delegates. Based on the party's delegate selection rules, a single county >> delegate represents a tiny fraction of a state convention delegate (the >> exact ratio is difficult to calculate because it varies from county to >> county). >> >> Norm Sterzenbach, the former executive director of the Iowa Democratic >> Party who oversaw the party's 2008 and 2012 Iowa Caucuses, told CNN: >> >> "I can say with almost absolutely certainty this election would not have >> been changed because of the coin flips. It would take a very large number >> of these to make that kind of impact, and one candidate would have to win >> them all. Our empirical evidence and anecdotal information shows that one >> candidate didn’t win them all, and that coin flips are not that frequent." >> >> Sterzenbach has worked with with the Iowa caucuses since 2000. He is not >> aligned with any 2016 campaign, has not endorsed a candidate, and did not >> caucus for any 2016 candidate. >> He says that 4 state delegate equivalents may seem like a small amount, >> but that it would take "a lot" of county delegates to amount to 4 state >> delegates. He said based on his recollection, there seemed to have been >> more instances of coin flips being held in 2008 than in 2016. >> >> BOTTOM LINE: >> * yes, some precinct caucuses employed coin flips to allocate a single >> county delegate from that precinct to a candidate >> * Hillary Clinton did not win all the coin flips >> * More than half of the state's 1681 precincts reported a combined total >> of 7 coin flips taking place, of which Bernie Sanders won 6, Hillary >> Clinton 1. Official records are not available for coin flips held in the >> state's remaining precincts >> * a county delegate elected at a precinct caucus represents a small >> fraction of a state delegate equivalent >> * the former Iowa Democratic Party executive director says with "almost >> absolute certainty" that coin flips did not determine the overall caucus >> outcome >> >> >> >> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T > > >