A new prediction market is targeting one of the industry’s biggest unanswered questions.

Announced today, leveraged bitcoin trading platform BitMEX has launched a prediction futures contract that it says will allow traders to bet on whether the SEC will approve the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF, the long-awaited US public investment vehicle that would offer exposure to the digital currency.

The Hong-Kong based exchange has made this market available at a time when the speculation surrounding the potential approval of this bitcoin ETF has generated significant visibility.

First filed in 2014 by investors Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, the SEC has repeatedly kicked the can down the road on a decision about its launch, a move that has set up its final deadline on 11th March.

While the Winklevoss twins have already addressed many of the potential risks identified by the SEC, some believe the government agency could reject the proposed fund, though reasons vary.

Perhaps most interestingly, however, the offering is a bit of an all or nothing bet for traders.

BitMEX’s COIN futures contract is binary, meaning that it will settle at 100 if the SEC gives the proposed fund a green light and zero if the government agency decides to either postpone its decision or reject the proposed fund.

Dice image via Shutterstock