Now that the two major parties have their candidates locked down and the conventions are about to start, poll-watching season has begun in earnest. All across America, and indeed the globe, people are starting to draw conclusions from the aggregate polls at Huffington Post and Real Clear Politics. FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver, tarnished though his reputation may be after his initial dismissal of Trump’s chances in the GOP primaries, has regained his customary status as a Delphic Oracle of electoral politics.

Many polls show a tightening race, although some also show Clinton taking a commanding lead in the battleground states. None of this matters. Time spent poring over polls at this point is time wasted. Polls this early are rarely predictive in general elections. They’ll be much more valuable about a week after the Democratic convention, when a much larger chunk of the electorate has heard both sides and is paying attention.

Instead, focus on a crucial fact: The Trump campaign is in disarray, displaying a chaos rarely seen in national politics (since at least 1972, when George McGovern’s presidential run became a legendary shambles after his running mate dropping out because of reports about his mental history).

Consider these facts: Fundraising for both Trump and the RNC is terrible, with the latter reportedly sending out a last-minute plea to billionaire Sheldon Adelson to send them $6 million they need to just host the convention in Cleveland in a few days. The Trump campaign also leaked news that football player Tim Tebow was going to speak at the convention, but had to walk it back when the athlete denied the reports. The lineup for the convention was announced just a few days ago, long after it was promised, and 20 percent of those who will be addressing a national audience are members of the Trump family, including four of his five kids. While the Trumps will be out in full force at the convention, hundreds of Republican legislators are staying away.

But the best evidence of chaos in the Trump camp is the botched vice presidential announcement, which revealed a level of anarchy rarely seen outside of schoolyards at recess. Trump had been conducting a high-profile search, making Governor Chris Christie, retired Lt. General Mike Flynn, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and Governor Mike Pence perform before him like contestants at a beauty pageant. Trump’s manager and some members of the Trump family reportedly were leaning toward Pence, but Trump felt an emotional affinity for Christie and an intellectual respect for Gingrich.