The calm before the storm that is Avengers: Endgame begins this weekend with the releases of a few new wide releases, none of which seem likely to open above the mid-teen range. The highest profile of these four is Lionsgate’s Hellboy reboot, while Universal hopes to perhaps have a sleeper hit on their hands with their comedy Little. Meanwhile, Annapurna Pictures will open Laika’s animated title Missing Link, and Aviron Pictures will try their hand at another wide release with teen romance After.

More than a decade after Hellboy II: The Golden Army, Lionsgate decided to reboot the franchise under director Neil Marshall and Stranger Things star David Harbour. The choice to reboot is certainly a head-scratcher, considering the character never had much in terms of mainstream appeal. On top of that, the main audience would seem to be the fanboy crowd, but the general reaction from fans is that they would’ve preferred a third installment in the Del Toro franchise as opposed to a do-over. On top of that, critical reception has been scathing; while it has balanced out to around 11%, the score was dipping into single-digit territory while it was getting all the attention. With Avengers: Endgame hitting theaters in two weeks and Shazam benefitting from great word of mouth, it just doesn’t make sense for audiences to shell out for a critically panned reboot right in between two far more appealing options. Ironically, this kind of bad positioning is also what killed Hellboy II, which was released just one week before The Dark Knight. While tracking has it in high teens, it’s hard to imagine it getting past $15 million considering how toxic the reception has been.

Universal’s Little may create a bit of an upset by becoming the biggest of the new openers, as the comedy looks as though it may push close to $20 million. 2019 has been fairly light in terms of straight up comedy films, a genre that seems to occupy a smaller and smaller part of the cinematic landscape as the years go on. However, there is occasionally a film like Little that manages to find a specific niche. When it comes to marketing and subsequently selling a comedy, what it typically comes down to is having a combination of a solid, unique premise, as well as a trailer with a number of memorable gags or punchlines. Little seems to fit that description, and may be able to serve as effective counterprogramming against big budget, male driven blockbusters like Hellboy and Shazam. Anything in high-teens is a win for the $20 million production.

Annapurna will have the widest release of the weekend with Missing Link, at a whopping 3,500 theaters – the biggest theater count for a Laika Studios release to date. The stop-motion production company has struggled to find mainstream success, with each of their films making less domestically than the last. Their latest film, Kubo and the Two Strings clocked out at just $48 million against a budget of $60 million. If you’re wondering how the films can consistently get produced without turning a profit, it’s because Travis Knight (the lead animator for Laika) is the son of the founder of Nike, meaning the films are essentially passion projects that get nationwide releases. The subject material doesn’t seem as immediately appealing or accessible compared to any of their past titles, meaning it may fail to top $10 million for the weekend.

Finally, we come to teen drama After, based on a One Direction fan fiction from 2014 – yes, you read that correctly. Aviron Pictures doesn’t exactly have the best track record for wide releases; so far, all they have is 2018’s The Strangers: Prey at Night which did okay with $25 million against a $5 million budget, but they also have January’s Serenity – the critically panned flop that pulled in less than $9 million against a budget of $25 million, along with some of the worst reviews of the year. Because of that, tracking has a massive range of $3 million to $12 million, though it’s hard to imagine it winds up above $10 million.

Predictions

Shazam – $22.5 million Little – $17 million Hellboy – $11 million Pet Sematary – $9.3 million Missing Link – $8.7 million

After – $4.5 million