C onservative John Tory has decided to run for mayor of Toronto. He's keeping the decision close to his vest but skittish supporters say all that's left is the announcement date.

This sets up a classic heavyweight fight with Liberal George Smitherman, who surprised potential contestants Monday by jumping into the race before it officially begins on Jan. 4.

Tory isn't confirming or denying he will run. He gets around it by saying, "I have no announcement to make." But sources close to the ex-provincial Conservative party leader say he will jump into the race in January.

"Off the record, he's in," said one Tory backer as soon as word leaked out Sunday night that Smitherman had jumped the gun to declare his candidacy for the October 2010 vote.

"The announcement (will come) in January. He has 12 to 15 councillors (backing him) ... across the city."

"Not the first week ... but before end of January," another insider confirmed.

Tory, a long-time party backroom organizer and successful businessman, ran for mayor in 2003 and finished second to David Miller. He then became provincial party leader but lost several contests. His backers think the stars may finally be aligning in his favour.

"Right place, right time, maybe for the first time in his political life," another source said.

But before there is a coronation of either Smitherman or Tory, the NDP is still to be heard from and Councillor Adam Giambrone seems to be the leading candidate to carry the left-wing banner. Giambrone, the TTC chair, is looking to secure the backing of federal NDP Leader Jack Layton and his influential MP wife, Olivia Chow.

"I understand he hasn't made a decision yet, so I'll have to wait for that to happen before commenting," Layton told the Star on Monday. "I have certainly been very impressed with his leadership in the important assignments he's had before him."

Translation? Giambrone can count on Layton when he's ready to roll.

Tory spent Monday prepping for his interview with Smitherman on Tory's drive-home talk show on CFRB radio. And listeners got a taste of what's to come when they clashed over Smitherman's record and the eHealth scandal – each combatant straining to remain polite.

The thinking of the Smitherman and Tory camps has been that the politically smart thing is to let Mayor David Miller and city council battle over this year's tough city budget, then swoop in on the bloody battlefield after the budget carnage and offer a rescue plan attached to their campaign.

But every new week has brought new challenges that force the hand of potential candidates.

First, Miller surprised everyone by announcing he would resign at the end of the term. Suddenly, the political calculus was no longer: "Who best to take on David Miller?" or "Let's not split the anti-Miller vote." It became a free-for-all.

Miller's departure put both Tory and Smitherman in play, even though they had an informal pact that only one or the other would challenge Miller. And it forced the city's budget chief, Shelley Carroll, fellow councillor Giorgio Mammoliti, Giambrone and others to declare their interest.

Now, the fortunes have changed again. Smitherman, battling perceptions that he is smarting from the eHealth scandal at Queen's Park and would not run, decided to force the issue and resigned as deputy premier Sunday to run for mayor.

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Councillor Case Ootes has met with both candidates and is watching eagerly. "Nothing is certain unless it actually happens," he says. "But everything John's doing says he's running, so I'd be surprised if he didn't."





rjames@thestar.ca

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