Iowa’s caucuses are the embodiment of retail politics, typically rewarding candidates who build support—and enthusiasm—one county at a time. Social conservatives have asserted their influence in recent years, with conservative Rick Santorum narrowly edging out the more centrist Mitt Romney in 2012. But the state isn’t a monolith, and demographic characteristics may help handicap the Republican race.

Data from The Wall Street Journal/NBC News polls suggest a GOP primary electorate defined by three broad lanes: a highly religious bloc that supports socially conservative candidates such as Ted Cruz and Ben Carson; a more moderate slice of voters with higher incomes and education levels who back ‘establishment’ candidates like Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush; and a third constituency of Donald Trump supporters representing a secular, populist movement.

Viewed through that lens, here’s a look at where each type of candidate might build a winning coalition in Iowa.

Related article: How Donald Trump Happened: The Demographics Behind His Supporters »