Data are updated daily at 4pm BST. Commentary is updated weekly. Last commentary update September 16th, 2020.

September 16: The big news this week is the seemingly uncontrollable advance of Covid-19 in India. The continent is getting close to 5 million confirmed infections, causing the country’s healthcare system to buckle under the weight of hospital admissions for the virus, which has killed over 80,000 Indian citizens. The rapid rise in new cases in India and continuing high levels of infections in the US and parts of Europe mean that the global number of Covid-19 cases has risen by 6% since last week.

Observers will be watching to see if the trailing average mortality figures increase for more countries over the coming weeks, as mortality always lags behind infection rates. But even now India is one of the few countries continuing to see a persistent rise in its trailing seven day average death rate. More worrying is the new rises in both the US and Brazil, where it had looked as if seven day average mortality rates were finally stabilising.

Round up of cases and deaths

Worldwide – In absolute terms the number of global Covid-19 infections has risen sharply, despite a fall in new cases versus seven day averages. Total infections are now at 29.3 million, up 1.7 million from this time last week and 32,000 more people have died in the last seven days, bringing the global mortality to 932,476. If the infection and death rates continue to increase at the same rate, the world could have over 30 million people who have been infected by Covid-19 by this time next week - and if mortality rates start to climb also hit the grim milestone of 1 million dead within weeks.

US – Total Covid-19 infections now stand at 6.5 million in the US, and the country is getting perilously close to reporting 200,000 deaths from Covid-19. The continued rise in cases and the looming US elections have put an increased focus on vaccine development and today the Department of Health and Human Services said that the US government would distribute a vaccine within one day of regulatory authorisation. While this statement could put pressure on the FDA to issue EUA for a vaccine, it is unclear how it squares with a previous statement nine vaccine makers stating they would follow rigours safety and efficacy principles, rather than external timelines or pressure in terms of vaccine development.

Europe – There was some good news in Europe as both day-on-day new infections and seven day averages for new cases fell in several countries. Hot spot France reported a 1,000 reduction in one day numbers, while Italy and the UK also reported lower day-on-day infection rates. However, Germany and the Netherlands have seen a sharp uptick in infections. And Spain, whose infection numbers are growing is introducing targeted lockdowns in the Madrid area, where the many of the country’s new cases have been reported. And while the country does not release its new cases data in time for this report daily new infections have been running at over 1,000.

Latin America – Mexico looked as if it might finally have some good news. New cases versus seven day averages for the country were down and day-on-day new cases also fell. Brazil also reported a fall in its seven day averages for new cases, but with 132,413 dead it still remains the second worse impacted country behind the US, but if the situation fails to improve in India, the country might lose this grim claim.

Asia – There appears to be no let up for India in terms of both Covid-19 infections and related deaths. Total cases are now at the 4.9 million mark, up by 600,000 since this time last week. However, despite the high infection numbers the reported mortality count from Covid-19 for the country is only 80,696, but there are fears this could be understated due to poor reporting. China, which today only reported 22 new coronavirus cases, has taken a tough stance on possible threats to its citizens through imported food products by banning imports from OK foods, following an outbreak of Covid-19 at the Arkansas site of the poultry company.

ROW – New Zealand could have regained its status as the poster child for handling the Covid-19 pandemic after reporting a second day with no new community based infections. The country also has the enviable reputation of only having reported 25 deaths from Covid-19.