Chrissie Thompson

cthompson@usatoday.com

CONCORD, N.H. — “When I am president of the United States–"

The cheers interrupted John Kasich's victory speech Tuesday. True, he hadn't won the New Hampshire primary. But he had come in second, the best possible result for the Ohio governor, lending credence to the notion that he can emerge as the GOP alternative to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.

New Hampshire voters handed first place to Trump, as polls had predicted they would. But with the nod to Kasich, they signaled their endorsement of his plainspoken style, moderate stances, message of unity and voter-by-voter strategy of holding 100-plus town hall meetings.

“There’s something that’s going on, that I’m not sure that anyone can quite understand. There’s magic in the air with this campaign," Kasich told a ballroom of supporters. "We see it as an opportunity for all of us, and I mean all of us, to be involved with something that is bigger than our lives.”

Kasich's showing amounts to a victory over Kasich’s main rivals: Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, and Chris Christie, New Jersey’s sitting executive. The former insisted his campaign wasn't dead, while the latter returned home to ponder his candidacy, with a campaign end likely coming shortly.

Kasich also landed a blow against Marco Rubio, capitalizing on the Florida senator's poor debate showing to halt his momentum. Rubio had attempted this week to unite anti-Trump and Cruz Republicans behind him. Now that Kasich has defeated Rubio in an early primary, he’ll attempt to take the same mantle.

The transformation of John Kasich

Ahead of the New Hampshire primary, Kasich repeatedly said he'd win the nomination if he emerged as a "story." He had told supporters they would need to help him in the cluster of Southern states that vote next in the GOP nomination process.

But Tuesday, Kasich avoided mechanics and exhortations to fight onward. He stuck with the message that has transformed him as a candidate.

“The people of New Hampshire have taught me a lesson, and from this day forward I’m going to spend my time going slower and listening,” Kasich said of the town hall meetings, which contrast with his sometimes aloof nature as a candidate and governor in Ohio.

A top-tier finish seemed improbable just six weeks ago, with town hall attendance dwindling and Kasich stagnating in polls here. But as notoriously late-deciding New Hampshire voters started tuning into the race, Kasich began to rise. A trio of improving debate performances and a rush of media coverage gave him even more of a boost.

Kasich avoided attacking opponents, although his political action committee aired commercials that criticized his opponents for mudslinging in the form of millions of dollars’ worth of negative commercials.

Kasich's advisers have promised a decent New Hampshire finish will bring in cash and momentum that will fuel Kasich’s campaign in South Carolina and in other primary states this month and beyond. Even so, Kasich faces hurdles.

How John Kasich could win

In South Carolina, where voters head to the polls Feb. 20, and in the group of Southern states voting March 1, voters have viewed Kasich as too moderate for their conservative tastes. He must attract enough money to persevere even if he doesn’t win many delegates there.

And he must hope he can maintain momentum until mid-March. He'd count on wins in Michigan on March 8 and Ohio on March 15 to give new fire to his campaign. Indeed, Kasich is planning campaign events in Michigan next week, giving up at least two days he could be spending in South Carolina.

Still, the Kasich team says it will be able to make up lost ground in South Carolina. Kasich has campaigned regularly in the Palmetto State, focusing on coastal areas, which tend to be more moderate. His political action committee's targeting has included African-Americans who are more moderate voters.

“One of my friends said, 'Napoleon fought across and conquered Europe in about a week,' " Kasich joked last month in Charleston. "So we’ve got a couple extra days. We’re going to have to march down here. And we’ve gotta deliver this state."

For John Kasich, South Carolina may determine campaign fate

Trump is generally thought to be the leader heading in to South Carolina. But Cruz has a strong grassroots network, with PACs directing spending and recuriting toward the state's religious communities.

The Rubio campaign also claims a large group of "grassroots leaders" in the state, with coalitions devoted to Republican activists, Tea Party members, faith leaders, youth leaders and first-time voters.

And Bush's campaign is vowing a strong showing in South Carolina, boosted by spending from his well-heeled super PAC. Bush has the endorsement of Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who on Saturday previewed the campaign's attack against Kasich: that he has been willing in his career to cut military spending.

Kasich has said he’d seek to balance the budget without cutting money spent on national defense, but he talks frequently about wanting to reform the Pentagon and its bureaucracy.

As a congressman, he fought large-scale production of the B-2 bomber, which he viewed as largely unnecessary in the nuclear age. He also supported a process that closed some obsolete military bases around the country. Kasich says the process prevented “pork-barrel spending.”

South Carolina has multiple military bases, plus The Citadel military college.

Kasich’s supporters take heart from John McCain's nomination in 2008, when he took South Carolina following a New Hampshire victory even though he lacked money and a strong early ground game.

But they also whisper about McCain's 2000 campaign, when he defeated George W. Bush in New Hampshire, but then lost the South Carolina primary in part because of limited finances to fight off Bush's well-funded attacks. Bush regained momentum and won the nomination.

Even with the victory of a second-place finish in New Hampshire, history points against Kasich and toward Trump and Cruz, who won Iowa's caucuses last week. Since 1976, when Iowa first kicked off the GOP nomination process, no Republican has become the nominee without winning either the Iowa caucus or the New Hampshire primary.

But this election is different, mainstream Republicans say. They say the party's leaders will coalesce behind the strongest alternative to the anti-establishment winners in New Hampshire and Iowa.

David Jackson of USA Today contributed reporting.