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Photo by Prairie Climate Centre

How much warmer and wetter will our future climate be? According to a series of maps produced by the Prairie centre climatologists:

– Under a high-carbon scenario, in some months the Arctic is projected to warm by more than 12 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. Sea ice and snow reflect unwanted solar energy back into space. Without it, the open ocean would absorb sunlight, speeding the rate of global warming.

– The months of December and January are projected to warm faster than the month of June. Warmer winters might sound marvellous, but they make it easier for agricultural and forest pests to survive winter. Cold winters are also vital for winter roads relied upon by “tens of thousands of Canadians,” including First Nations.

– Southern Canada is expected to get wetter through the spring, fall and winter — increasing the risks of the kind of flooding that soaked swaths of Ontario and Quebec this year — but much drier in summer, increasing drought and wildfire risks.

The modelling was based on two 30-year future periods — 2021 to 2050, and 2051 to 2080, using 12 different climate models. The researchers used an average of the models.

Photo by Ernest Doroszuk/Toronto Sun/Postmedia Network

Overall, the globe is projected to warm by two to three degrees Celsius by 2051 to 2080, compared to 12 degrees or more for some places in the Canadian High Arctic, assuming the high-carbon future we’re trending towards, Smith said in an email.

Toronto’s summers are projected to warm by four degrees Celsius by 2051 to 2080 in a high-carbon scenario; in comparison, its winters are projected to warm five degrees Celsius. Churchill summers will warm by 3.5 degrees Celsius; its winters by nine degrees.