The vast majority of electors (87%) are not concerned about Mr Rudd’s drunken visit to a New York strip club while on a Government funded trip to the United Nations, only 12% are concerned and 1% are undecided, a special telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights (Wednesday and Thursday) finds.

The poll also finds 74% (up 2%) of electors approve of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job as leader of the Opposition — the highest rating recorded by the Morgan Poll. Only 19% disapprove and 7% were unable to say.

Now only 44% (down 9%) approve of the job Mr Howard is doing as Prime Minister — the lowest level since being elected as Prime Minister in 1996. The majority of electors (51%, up 9%) disapprove whilst 5% were unable to say.

A majority of electors (52%, up 1%) say Mr Rudd would be a better Prime Minister than Mr Howard (38%, down 6%), while 10% (up 5%) can’t say. Mr Rudd’s lead of 14% is his largest since he became leader.

Kevin Rudd and the strip club:

The qualitative research explaining how electors felt about Mr Rudd’s strip club visit found those who were most unconcerned about Mr Rudd’s visit to the strip club largely commented that ‘we’re all human’ with Mr Rudd’s strip club visit reflecting: “He’s just a bloke, a normal Aussie male”, “We’re all human and we all make mistakes. I don’t think it has anything to do with his capacity as a leader”, “He was very frank about the reason he was there. The excuse he gave was very honest and gave the common man as myself something to identify with Mr Rudd. I don’t think he did anything wrong. And even though he was on a taxpayer funded trip I don’t think that night was on the tax payer.”, “He was very naughty but I don’t think it really matters. It just means his ‘goody two-shoes’ image might not be so intact. I think he’s been trying to appeal to the ordinary citizens of Australia. I think he’s just human.” and “It just reveals him to be human. A normal person. It will do him more good than harm. It was pretty tame by other standards.”

Others who were not concerned about Mr Rudd’s visit responded that the matter had nothing to do with politics: “It doesn’t affect how he runs the country. Just look at Bill Clinton.”, “Everybody is entitled to make mistakes and he seems to have owned up and been quite honest about what happened, and there would be no reason to question his ability as Prime Minister because of that.” and “It’s not to do with politics. It is normal behaviour”.

The small proportion of electors who were concerned about Mr Rudd’s visit to the strip club expressed their disappointment with most saying they expected more of their leaders. Some also said that the episode raised questions about Mr Rudd’s morals and judgement: “My expectation of people in these positions are higher than those displayed by Mr Rudd under those circumstances.”, “Because if he was in the position he was he should have had enough wits about him to know what he was doing, He should have more sense and integrity.”, “It shows poor judgement and he has been honest about it, but it concerns me that he made a poor decision in the first place.”, “It shows he has no morals. I don’t know, it just looks poor.”, “Because it was funded by taxpayers and he was there for a different reason.” and “He is a sleaze. I think he lied about telling his wife the next morning”.

The overwhelming response to the Rudd/strip club issue can be summed up in the following response:

“It’s something you or I would do.”

Gary Morgan says:

“For an issue to make a real difference to the electorate it generally needs to be:

Serious and important

Contemporary and current (not something that happened years ago)

Relevant to the individual’s leadership position

“Two out of three doesn’t cause a real problem — the issue has to have all three elements.

“Kevin Rudd’s New York strip club affair is neither serious, contemporary nor relevant to his position as leader — and hasn’t made a difference. Electors comments’ support this view and despite the publicity surrounding his visit to the new York strip club Kevin Rudd recorded his highest ever approval rating — at 74%.

“What should be of real concern to the Prime Minister, John Howard, must be the electorate’s frustration over continuous bickering between him and Peter Costello. The tensions between John Howard and Peter Costello have hurt the Prime Ministers “Approval rating” - now at only 44%, it’s lowest level ever. John Howard and Peter Costello need to work together to have any chance of winning the next Federal Election — simple! If not they shouldn’t waste their money on campaigning!”

Detailed analysis (computer tables) of all questions, cross-tabulated by States/Regions, demographics and answers to each question are available for $850 on the Roy Morgan Online Store.



Approval of Leaders

Prime Minister

Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

Fifty-one per cent (up 9%) dissapprove of the job Mr Howard is doing as Prime Minister. Mr Howard’s approval is highest with L-NP supporters (85%). Disapproval is highest with ALP (72%) supporters.

Electors Analysis by Federal Voting Intention Aug 11/12 Aug 18/19 Sep 1/2 Sep 15/16 Sep 22/23 Sep 29/30 Oct 7/8 Nov 3/4 Sep 21/22 Mar 29/30 Jul 12/13 Jan 4-7 May 16/17 August 21/22 The Ind/ 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 L-NP ALP Greens# Other# % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Approve 47 47 50 51 54 56 53 59 54 49 52 56 53 44 85 21 10 38 Disapprove 44 47 43 43 38 38 40 34 40 44 42 39 42 51 14 72 83 49 Can't say 9 6 7 6 8 6 7 7 6 7 6 5 5 5 1 7 7 13 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Electors who disapproved of the way that Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister mentioned that he has been in the job too long as well as not agreeing with his policies and not doing enough for communities and the ordinary person as key reasons for their decision: “I think his had his days. Been at the job for too long”, “I don't agree with his stance on the Iraq war or policies on detention centres. I am also concerned about his social conscience.”, “‘I think he’s not doing enough for the ordinary person”, “He's out of touch with the community. He looks after big business but not the common community” and “Well I’ve never liked him, but I think he's been there too long and we need a change”.

A large number of electors who approved of the way that Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister cited his experience and time in the job as the main reason for their decision: “He's done a lot, the country's a lot better since he started’, “He's been doing it for 11 years, I’ve always voted Liberal and I don't see any reason to change my mind. I don't particularly like Howard and I didn't like Hawke either.”, “‘He seems to know what he's doing in his role. He has a lot of knowledge.” And “To me he seems like he knows what he's doing and is reasonably honest as far as politicians go.”

Approval Rating Trend for John Howard since 1996 Federal election

Mar 16-23, Mar 30 - Apr 6, Apr 13-20, Apr 27- May 5, May 11-18, May 26 - June 2, Sep 15/16, Sep 16/17, Apr 11/12, May 17/18, June 2/3, June 30/ July 1, 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 1996 2001 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 % % % % % % % % % % % % Approve 49 54 54 57 67 67 60 52 65 65 48 55 Disapprove 13 13 16 17 15 25 23 40 28 30 45 38 Can't say 38 33 30 26 18 8 17 8 7 5 7 7 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Aug 4/5, Aug 11/12, Aug 18/19, Sep 1/2, Sep 15/16, Sep 22/23, Sep 29/30, Oct 7/8, Nov 3/4, Sep 21/22, Mar 29/30, Jul 12/13, 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2006 2006 % % % % % % % % % % % % Approve 58 47 47 50 51 54 56 53 59 54 49 52 Disapprove 34 44 47 43 43 38 38 40 34 40 44 42 Can't say 8 9 6 7 6 8 6 7 7 6 7 6 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100





Opposition Leader

Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

Seventy-four per cent (up 2% since May 2007) of electors approve of the job Mr Rudd is doing as Opposition Leader. Mr Rudd’s approval is highest with ALP supporters (86%). Interestingly, a majority (61%) of L-NP supporters approve of Mr. Rudd’s handling of his job as Opposition Leader.

Electors Analysis by Federal Voting Intention Sep 1/2* Sep 15/16* Sep 22/23* Sep 29/30* Oct 7/8* Nov 3/4* Sep 21/22^ Mar 29/30^ Jul 12/13^ Jan 4-7 May 16/17 Aug 21/22 The Ind/ 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 L-NP ALP Greens# Other# % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Approve 58 64 55 55 58 47 47 29 39 64 72 74 61 86 69 68 Disapprove 30 26 33 34 30 43 42 62 49 11 17 19 32 8 24 20 Can't say 12 10 12 11 12 10 11 9 12 25 11 7 7 6 7 12 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Mark Latham was Leader of the ALP

^ Kim Beazley was Leader of the ALP

Electors who approved of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition mentioned his fair and sensible approach and being a breath of fresh air as the main reasons for their decision: “I think he's fair-handed. I think he's been a good leader of the opposition.”, “I think his being sensible in not opposing everything automatically”, “A breathe of fresh air. In other words he has new thinking and Australian needs to get out of the roughs of conservatism” and “He is more innovative in foreign affairs and conservation. he is also a breath of fresh air.”

Electors who disapproved of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition cited his lack of commitment to policies and lacking a leader image as the main reason for their decision: “‘No definitive statements, lack of policies.”, “I don't trust his policies; he got no facts behind him”, “I think he's going to promise the world and he can't afford it. if he got in we'd go broke.”, “I just don't think he's up to it, he shows no strength in leader ship. John Howard is a more of a statesman. Kevin Rudd is forty nine; he's not coming across with a good leader image.”, “He is taking things at face value rather than committing himself to anything. he is a show pony.” and “All politicians say what they want to get people to vote for them.”.

Better Prime Minister: Howard vs Rudd

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr Howard and Mr Rudd. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”

More electors say Mr Rudd (52%) would make a better Prime Minister than Mr Howard (38%), while 10% can’t say. Support for Mr Rudd is highest with ALP supporters (82%) followed by Greens supporters (69%). Support for Mr Howard as better Prime Minister is highest with L-NP supporters (88%).

Electors Analysis by Federal Voting Intention Jan Sep Mar Jul Jan May Aug The Ind/ 2005* 2005* 2006* 2006* 2007 2007 2007 L-NP ALP Greens# Other# % % % % % % % % % % % Howard 57 59 61 61 50 44 38 88 9 8 32 Rudd 33 30 26 34 42 51 52 9 82 69 35 Can’t say 10 11 13 5 8 5 10 3 9 23 33 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Kim Beazley was Leader of the Opposition during this period

Electors who preferred John Howard to Kevin Rudd predominantly mentioned his extensive experience: “Because he knows what he is doing. He’s had the experience and we really need someone with experience at the moment.”, “Because he knows the country and where it stands at the moment. A lot of issues that he’s been dealing with need his further attention. And I don’t think Rudd is mature enough. He’s getting there.”, “Because Howard is experienced but Rudd is not.” and Rudd doesn’t have much experience. He’s inexperienced with the policies.”

Other reasons electors cited for believing John Howard was the better Prime Minister included his handling of the economy: “Because I think the country’s economy and stability have improved under his stewardship, and I don’t have any confidence that it would be like that with Rudd and Labor.”, “He is better with managing economics.”

“Well the major concern in Australia is the economy.”, “They are in a good state at the moment. Mr Howard is doing quite well.”, “Labor made it hard for everybody. In the long run, we will have a lot of trouble.”, Some electors cited on MR Howard’s character as a reason for supporting him.”, “I think he's done a very good job so far, he seems a reasonable man.”, “He’s got integrity, experience, character.”, “Overall he's much more positive.” and “He gives the impression of being solid and reliable. Mr Rudd is too childish.”

Overwhelmingly, electors who said they would prefer Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister cited the need for a change as their reason for preferring the Labor leader; “Well I just think we need a new person, a new outlook and new policies.”, “It’s time for a change. I don’t think that the Howard Government has been truthful. I believe the Howard Government has moved Australia too far away from liberal ideals.”, “[Howard] has had his time. Regarding some of the younger things he's out of date.”, “Its time to change the government.”, “Even though Mr Howard has been great, it’s time for him to move over. If he wins, he’ll hand it to Costello, and I don’t like Costello.”, We just need a fresh outlook on things. I think Mr Howard is a bit stale.”, “Simply because it is time for a change in the way things are run. John Howard has a good track record. He led the country quite reasonably I would say. Overall I would say he has done a good job but I think it is time for him to pass the torch on.”

“I think Rudd is new and fresh with a few new ideas.” and “Try to give him a go and his fresh thinking.”

Social issues were also cited frequently as a basis for preferring Rudd over Howard: “I don’t think Howard is a good Prime Minister. I don’t trust him and his moral ethics: he used the racial card to win the elections.”, “He has a greater awareness of the social issues, social conscience of the government.” and “I think that beyond the basic direction of Labor policy, he’s handling indigenous health better, as a part of the overall health portfolio. I think he’s handling the industrial relations law better too.”.

Kevin Rudd’s youthful image and strong character also came into play when electors were deciding who would be the better PM: “He's younger, has different views. I'd believe Rudd more than Howard now.”, “I’d rather someone who is young and has a bit of fun.”, “Rudd has a vision for the future and he is younger and more forward-looking and Howard is backward-looking and wants too much power.”, “I prefer his policies. I also think he’s more honest.”, “He is a better and more truthful man.” and “Howard has lost the plot and he is using money and any trick in the book to win.”

Concerns With Rudd Visiting Strip Club

Respondents were asked: “It has recently been reported that in 2003 Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd, while on a taxpayer-funded visit to the United Nations in New York, visited a New York strip club after drinking too much. Does that concern you, or not?”

A large majority of electors (87%) are not concerned about Mr Rudd visit to a New York strip club, while 12% are concerned and 1% were unable to say. ALP supporters were the least likely to be concerned about Mr Rudd’s visit (5% concerned), followed by the Greens supporters (16% concerned).

Electors Analysis by Federal Voting Intention Aug The Ind/ 2007 L-NP ALP Greens# Other# % % % % % Yes, concern 12 22 5 16 12 No, not concern 87 77 95 82 87 Can’t say 1 1 - 2 1 100 100 100 100 100

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the nights of August 21/22, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross section of 633 electors.

Detailed analysis (computer tables) of all questions, cross-tabulated by States/Regions, demographics and answers to each question are available for $850 on the Roy Morgan Online Store.

For further information:

Gary Morgan: Office (03) 9224 5213 Mobile 0411 129 094 Home (03) 9419 3242

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate 40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95% 500 ±4.5 ±3.9 ±2.7 ±1.9 1,000 ±3.2 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.