Florida to top 5.2 million early votes today — Democrats catching Republicans — ‘Cotton-pickin’ controversy — Two presidents, two Floridas, two Americas Presented by Facebook

Good Monday morning. And happy Election Day Eve.

ADVANTAGE: DEMOCRATS? — The big question on everyone’s minds in Florida politics today: Did Democrats catch Republicans in pre-Election Day ballots cast? Our guess is yes. But it’s probably not by much, and, considering Republicans have had a knack for winning Election Day and vote-by-mail ballots that continue to pour in, the Democratic lead (if any) might not last. But it might. We don’t know. No one does. Generally, if more Republicans show in an election, Republicans win. If more Democrats show, Democrats win. There’s an outside chance more Republicans could show but Democrats could win this year owing to independents, who are trending left according to most surveys, but it would be an anomaly. Florida, however, is all about anomalies.


THE RACE AS OF NOW — As of Sunday afternoon, 4.8 million people had cast in-person early votes and absentee ballots, 40.8 percent by Republicans and 40.2 percent by Democrats. The 0.6 percentage point advantage for the GOP (more than 29,000 ballots) is expected to evaporate in the face of strong urban turnout in large counties that had a final Sunday-before-Election-Day early voting. By some point this morning, we’ll know the numbers from yesterday, and they’ll likely show about 5.2 million people have voted. Currently, we’re at 34 percent total turnout.

SOULS TO THE POLLS — It’s the final Sunday of in-person early voting, a (new) tradition of after-church voting by African-Americans and it has a rhyming nickname: Souls to the Polls. All of these ingredients make Souls to the Polls perfect media catnip, an irresistible story, especially now that the first African-American candidate for governor is on the ballot and was marshaling voters in South Florida. Andrew Gillum is almost guaranteed to raise the African-American share of the vote (12.9 percent as of Sunday morning) so that it to equals or exceeds the black share of registered voters (13.3 percent). In an election where everything counts, yesterday counts big.

ALL SOULS MATTER — Amid all the hype of the Souls to the Polls stories and social media mentions, a little perspective here: Black voter turnout on this weekend has only been so high. In 2014, the last midterm, African-Americans accounted for 21 percent (or 61,000) of the in-person early votes cast during the final weekend of in-person early voting. Whites cast 61 percent of the ballots then, or 178,000 votes, and about 85,000 of them were from Republicans. So the white GOP vote exceeded the total Souls to the Polls black vote by nearly 22,000. Maybe it shouldn’t shock. Lots of white Republicans go to church, too. And they sure as hell, or heaven, vote.

RACE IN THE RACE — As a share of the electorate, whites are still voting in higher proportions compared to their registration, casting 68.6 percent of the ballots while they account for 63.3 percent of the voter rolls. Hispanics are 12.6 percent of the vote share but 16.5 percent of the rolls. Hispanics (especially non-Cuban Hispanics who tend to vote Democrat) typically underperform in midterms and, while more are showing now compared to 2016, Democrats would like to see higher turnout. Again, blacks are 13.3 percent of the rolls and 12.9 percent of the vote share as of Sunday. That should change because of Gillum’s campaign. African-American turnout is on the cusp of being historically high thanks to Gillum and the visits of former President Barack Obama, John Lewis, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), Eric Holder, Al Sharpton and even the rapper Diddy who headlines a concert tonight at FAMU for Gillum. Is Gillum’s strategy to run up the score with African-Americans while holding a coalition of progressive and anti-Trump whites while keeping Hispanic turnout decent?

OBAMA COALITION — Except for the fact that voters in this midterm so far remain relatively older, the turnout model by race is looking a lot more like Obama’s last successful election in Florida. In 2012, 68 percent of the voters were white, 13.8 percent were black and 12.4 percent were Hispanic. Democrats are also getting more of their less-reliable voters to the polls as they did in 2012. However, more Democrats in 2012 voted than Republicans (a Dem margin of 1.6 points) and Obama ultimately won by just 0.6 points. In 2016, 66.8 percent of the electorate was white, 12.5 percent was black and 14.8 percent were Hispanic, the Republican margin over Democrats in ballots cast was 0.6.

THE TRUMP COALITION — We’re indebted for a lot of the numbers above to a handful of people, chief among them is Associated Industries of Florida’s vice president of political operations, Ryan Tyson, who apprises his members of the trends in early vote by day. Here’s his take on how the GOP wins in the face of the Obama coalition: “I believe the Democrats are successfully converting many of their presidential year voters into this midterm election. More specifically they’re doing it with millennials, single females & non-whites. So how do Republicans stand a chance if the Obama coalition is showing up? 2 variables make it happen: 1. Overperform with Hispanics (Which Republicans are doing). Coalesce the white vote to levels similar to Trump’s election in Florida in 2016.”

WHO’S TURNING OUT DS? — The organization For Our Future Florida, which bills itself as the largest progressive organization in the state, said knocked on more than a million doors since early voting started Oct. 22, held 200,000 “conversations” with voters and is now focused on Election Day (which Democrats have typically lost in Florida) with a staff of more than 1,600 staff and a volunteer force in the thousands. As of Sunday morning, For Our Future says it got more than 522,165 of its “targeted universe of 1.27 million sporadic voters across 20 counties -- voters often difficult to turn out” to vote.

GUV TRAIL

AGAIN — “At DeSantis rally, Perdue says Florida governor’s race ‘so cotton-pickin’ important,’ by POLITICO Florida’s Matt Dixon: During a Saturday rally for Florida Republican gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis, President Donald Trump’s top agriculture official used the term “cotton-pickin’” to describe the importance of Florida’s gubernatorial race, which also features Democrat Andrew Gillum, who is running to be Florida's first black governor. “Public policy matters. Leadership matters,” said Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said at a Lakeland rally, according to audio provided by American Bridge. “And that is why this election is so cotton-pickin’ important to the state of Florida. I hope you all don’t mess it up.” Read more

DYNAMIC DUO — “State Documents Show Gillum, Maddox Records tied to ‘Active Criminal Investigation,’” by Tallahassee Reports’ Steve Stewart:“Information acquired by TR from the Florida Department of Highway and Motor Vehicles (DHSMV) this past Friday reveal that the driving records of two of the five Tallahassee City elected officials are tied to an ‘active criminal investigation’ and can’t be released unredacted. Based on an earlier report by POLITICO, which found Gillum’s records were tied to an ‘active criminal investigation,’ TR requested driving record information for a number of Tallahassee elected officials.” Read more

WALK IT LIKE I … — “Andrew Gillum Is At Home With His Blackness,” by Huffington Post’s Julia Craven: Read more

— “Andrew Gillum Is Florida’s Homecoming King,” by Vann R. Newkirk II: Read more

FINAL POLL? — "Democrats have slight edge in close Florida Senate, governor races," by NBC News' Carrie Dann: Read more



SEN. TRAIL

AGAIN — “Rick Scott Calls Nelson ‘Completely Confused,’” by Floridian’s Javier Manjarres: “The 2018 mid-term elections are less than a week away, and the U.S. Senate race between Senator Bill Nelson (D) and Florida Governor Rick Scott is all tied up. Public opinion polls have Nelson up by one or two points, but Scott’s internal polls show Nelson down to Scott by as many as 6 points. Both Nelson and Scott have been campaigning aggressively, but last week’s Rwanda genocide gaffe by Nelson could sway the approximate 8 percent of Floridians who are still undecided in this race.” Read more

TRUMP REFERENDUM — “Trump riles up Florida voters for Scott, DeSantis,” by POLITICO Florida’s Aubree Eliza Weaver: Read more.

MONEY MEN — “These Orlando-area donors have given the most to Rick Scott, Bill Nelson for Senate race,” by Business Journal’s Susan Lundine: Read more

MAC ATTACK — “Trump Nominates Former Rick Scott Staffer to Run N.E.A.,” by New York Times’ Sopan Deb: Read more

TRAIL MIX

PICK A SIDE — “Obama versus Trump: Two Americas at war on the Florida campaign trail,” by POLITICO Florida’s Marc Caputo: Barack Obama versus Donald Trump. “Bring It Home!” versus “Lock Him Up!” In front of adoring and amped-up crowds this week, the former president and his successor rallied their parties’ bases in Florida, home of deadlocked and intensely watched races for U.S. Senate and governor in the nation's largest swing state. Florida has an electorate that’s such a national bellwether that it can seem more schizophrenic than truly red or blue. Read more

TRUMP LOVE — “‘I think he’s a genius’: Trump supporters confident about Tuesday,” by Daily News’ Jim Thompson: Read more

— “Trump rally includes surprise visits by Bobby Bowden, Evander Holyfield, DeSantis, Pence and Scott,” by Pensacola News Journal: Read more

FINAL PUSH — “These immigrants can’t vote. So they’re working hard to influence those who can,” by Miami Herald’s Brenda Medina: “On Sept. 5 2017, the Trump administration announced the end of a program that protects undocumented immigrants who arrived as children, known as DACA and started by the Obama administration in 2012. That date was crucial for Maria, a domestic worker and native of Argentina who lives in Miami-Dade and has two children, 21 and 23 years old, who are among the 800,000 beneficiaries of DACA.” Read more

HOT AIR — “The GOP Is Attacking a Democrat for Being Weak on Climate Change. Wait, What?!” by Mother Jones’ Dan Spinelli: “In one of South Florida’s congressional districts, the party machine swept in to prop up a two-term incumbent by painting his opponent as a puppet of fossil fuel interests and ‘dirty coal money.’ The only catch? The incumbent is Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo and the party apparatus is the National Republican Congressional Committee, whose coffers this cycle contain nearly $7 million in donations from the oil and gas industry.” Read more

PICK YOUR SAMPLE — “UNF’s polling lab shows why it’s just so hard to get an accurate poll,” by Times-Union’s Andrew Pantazi: “For all the talk about polls — How could they get the 2016 presidential race so wrong? How much stock are they due? What is a good poll and what is a bad poll? — little attention has been paid to the people who design the polls. Despite its lower profile, UNF Public Opinion Research Laboratory has been particularly active this midterm election, polling congressional and gubernatorial races in Florida and New York, working on contract to run polls for some of the most respected polling agencies in the country, including the Siena College Research Institute.” Read more

CONGRESSIONAL CRUNCHTIME — “Final polls point to narrow House majority for Democrats,” by POLITICO’s Steve Shepard: Read more.

YUP — “Florida’s 2018 election is a game changer,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Adam C. Smith: Read more

MIAMI MAN — “Montel Williams: I voted a straight Democratic ticket because health care is on the line,” by Montel Williams for USA Today: Read more

GIULIANI TIME — “Rudy Giuliani revs up Ron DeSantis’ crowd in South Daytona,” by News-Journal’s Mark Harper: Read more

CAN I GET AN AMEN? — “Politics and the pulpit: Have we crossed the line?” by The Ledger’s Gary White: Read more

WHAT WE LOOK LIKE — “Florida voters are getting younger, more diverse and less likely to belong to a party,” by Florida Today’s John McCarthy: Read more

HMMM — “Ready for a fight: Voter enthusiasm surges among U.S. Hispanics,” by Reuters’ Chris Kahn and Daniel Trotta: Read more

WASTIN’ AWAY — “Jimmy Buffett takes musical shots at Republicans in West Palm Beach show,” by Sun Sentinel’s Skyler Swisher: Read more

RAINBOW LENS — “These are the stakes for LGBTQ Floridians in the 2018 election, advocates say,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Kirby Wilson: Read more

TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP

IMPERIAL POLK — “Performers deny being told to change Trump assassination skit,” by The Ledger’s Gary White: “The two performers who carried out a controversial skit Oct. 26 at the Polk Theatre dispute the show director’s assertion that they were ordered to change it. The sketch, in which an actress wearing a Hillary Clinton mask simulated cutting the throat of a performer portraying Donald Trump, generated outrage and calls to boycott the Polk Theatre. The scene occurred during a ‘pre-show’ collection of short performances before ‘The Rocky Horror Picture Show Experience.’” Read more

THE FASHION EDITOR? — “Roger Stone’s Shifting Story Is a Liability,” by The Atlantic’s Natasha Bertrand: “Roger Stone can’t seem to get his story straight. In 2017, the political world’s most well-known ‘dirty trickster’ denied ever having a direct line to WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, as he repeatedly boasted during the 2016 election. Now, in light of new emails showing that he communicated WikiLeaks’s pre–Election Day plans to at least one senior Donald Trump–campaign official in the weeks before the election, his recollection is changing yet again.” Read more

ANCHOR BABY FILES — “Rubio Speaks on Trump’s Interpretation of Birthright Citizenship,” by The Epoch Times’ Zachary Stieber: Read more

GUNSHINE STATE

AGAIN — Another nutjob with a gun killed people, this time in a Tallahassee yoga studio.

— “Florida yoga studio shooter gave off ‘psychopath vibe’ as substitute teacher,” by TCPalm’s Jeff Burlew: Read more

— “Of Course The Guy Who Shot Up A Yoga Studio Was An Incel With A History Of Assaulting Women,” by Wonkette’s Robyn Pennacchia: Read more

— “‘He saved my life’: Joshua Quick fought off yoga studio gunman with vacuum cleaner, broom,” by Tallahassee Democrat's Jeff Berlew: Read more

— “Scott Beierle: 5 Fast Facts You Need to Know,” by Heavy.com: Read more

‘SHELTERING IN DANGER’ — “Hollywood Hills nursing home residents were ‘sheltering in danger’ during Hurricane Irma, report finds,” by POLITICO’s Alexandra Glorioso: The embattled Hollywood Hills nursing home where 12 residents died after Hurricane Irma last year, had a better plan to fight a potential bioterrorism attack than it did a major storm, a new federal investigation found. A report released Nov. 2 titled “Sheltering in Danger” by Democratic staff on the Senate Finance Committee concluded the nursing home made plans for its residents to receive medical care from the adjacent Memorial Regional Hospital in the event of a bioterrorism attack, but not a hurricane, a common occurrence in Florida. The facility’s Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan “makes no mention of the hospital in the event of a hurricane or power outage during hot weather, both of which were identified as hazards and are much more likely to occur,” report said. Read more[paywall]

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

ALL IN THE FAMILY — “Pinellas Commissioner Ken Welch lobbied public officials about a job for his wife,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Mark Puente: “Pinellas County Commission Chairman Ken Welch lobbied other public officials this summer to hire a nonprofit to take over a taxpayer-funded literacy program for disadvantaged children in southern St. Petersburg. His appeals came after that same group promised to hire his wife, Donna, who had been fired from another nonprofit that ran the same faith-based reading program, according to records and interviews.” Read more

THE SLIME

STILL HERE — “Bad news for beachgoers: Red tide levels stay on rise in Manatee, Sarasota counties,” by Bradenton Herald’s Ryan Callihan: “This week’s red tide report brings more bad news for Manatee waters. The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission said red tide levels were between 5 and 25 percent higher in Manatee County. Six of the agency’s 24 water samples this week indicated high concentrations of Karenia brevis algae. Samples taken offshore of Anna Maria Island revealed concentrations of more than 1 million K. brevis cells per liter.” Read more

… ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN …

— “Teen boy kills, buries mom at a Florida church fire pit — all over bad grades, cops say,” by Bradenton Herald's Monique O. Madan: Read more

— “‘They’ll have to kill me first.’ Woman refuses demand to remove painting of Virgin Mary,” by Miami Herald's Mark Young: Read more

WEEKEND WEDDING — Brianna Shoaf, account manager at PR firm CoreMessage, married Kyle Wright, program specialist at the Florida Department of Health. The wedding was in Gastonia, N.C., and the couple met at FSU. Pic

SEVEN DECADES — “70 years later: Tiara tradition weaves past and present of Swamp Buggy Parades in Naples,” by Daily News’ Ashley Collins: “Since 1950, these women have brought poise and glamour to the muddy sport of swamp buggy racing. They wear pageant-style dresses and get their hair done up. Earn a crown. Carry on a time-honored tradition. And — what could arguably be considered the most fun part — take a celebratory plunge with the newly crowned Budweiser Cup Champion. These women are Swamp Buggy Queens. And since 1950, almost 70 ladies have been crowned as such.” Read more

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