Immunity Blog: Episode 12

BY ROB CESTERNINO (Survivor Amazon & All-Stars)



December is here and you know what that means. Crowded malls, holiday parties and another Survivor winner will soon be crowned. Here are the five things that I'm thinking as we approach the home stretch of Survivor South Pacific.



5. Flip Flopped – After all of the drama over Cochran's big flip the last couple of weeks, it all ends with Cochran finishing one spot short of where he likely would've finished had he not made the move. I guess he made the wrong decision to defect after all… or did he?



Unlike Brandon Hantz, I'm not the kind of Survivor player who sees the world as purely black or white. At the time of the merge, Cochran was in a pretty dire situation and his chances to win the game weren't very good. When the opportunity to do something different came, Cochran decided to make the big move to vote with Upolu. After doing so, his chances to win still weren't good, but there were still opportunities to make more moves after the merge. I believe Cochran's ultimate failure in the game had more to do with these moves that he never made more so than simply just because of the switch itself.



As a viewer, it never really seemed like Cochran was pushing to divide up Upolu, in fact, he seemed quite content to be the 7th member of their tribe, up until this week. In Survivor, when you are the obvious next target you are in a severely compromised position, because everyone knows you're just trying to save your hide. That being said, Cochran seemed very close to getting Coach to go along with his plan and taking him further into the game. Had Coach been only slightly more inclined to bring Cochran to the finals, suddenly the big move looks like a master stroke... but that's obviously not how it happened. For me, the moral of the Cochran story has never been "don't switch against your tribe". I believe the moral is "never stop trying to improve your position in the game".



4. Coach's Challenge – Last season, pretty early on Boston Rob revealed that he wanted to go to the finals with Natalie and Phillip and ultimately that's exactly what happened. This season, we, the viewers, have not been privy to what Coach's real end game is. Many of us assumed that Cochran and Edna or Brandon were a part of those plans, and though Coach seemed to flirt with that notion this week, obviously that's not where his plan ultimately lied. So we're left with the question, who does Coach want to take to the finals?



Early in the season, Coach seemed to be the closest with Sophie and Albert. They found the hidden immunity idol together and were seen making decisions on more than one occasion. The problem for Coach is that I believe Sophie or Albert are the only players that remain in the game capable of beating him. In my estimation, Coach would be a stone cold lock in the finals against Brandon and Edna, but I don't sense that's what he's doing. Whether Coach wins or loses this game now will be solely determined on whether he is making the right or wrong decision about who to take to the end. Unlike Boston Rob, Coach doesn't seem to be making his endgame decisions by asking the question "Who am I most likely to beat?" – so he shouldn't be surprised if he ends up with a different outcome.



3. The Fresh Prince of Upolu – In this episode, we got to see the tribal dynamics of Upolu a bit more than we previously have. Specifically, we learned that Albert does not really get along with Rick or Edna, especially after finding out they call him names. Albert has come up with plans to get rid of these two tribemates over the last two episodes without having any success. We can also take away that Albert doesn't seem to have any interest in getting rid of Coach, so we can assume that Albert is on board with going to the finals with Coach and Sophie. However, I'm not feeling great about Albert's chances in that scenario. Albert won't be able to argue that he was calling all the shots and the true leader of Upolu if he's next to Coach in the finals. Albert also can't argue that he was a dominant player in the challenges if Sophie and all her challenge wins are in the finals, either.



While Coach can still win the game against other remaining Upolu members, I believe nobody needed Cochran more in the game than Albert. Instead of trying to get Edna out of the game, Albert should have been figuring out how to get her and Cochran to the end with him. I sense Albert most wanted to get Edna out because he suspects Coach might decide to take her to the finals over himself. However, if that is indeed the case, why not try to target Coach at some point and take the opportunity to go to the finals with Edna yourself?



2. Sophie in the Center – Though we don't always get to see a lot of what she's doing, it seems to me like Sophie is in the center of everything at Upolu. Albert and Coach have both talked about making some different moves, but Sophie (along with Brandon) seems quite content to see things play out according to the plan. Remember, Sophie was the only Upolu member who had anything negative to say about Cochran this week who ultimately went home.



Somebody in that tribe had to have talked Coach and Albert out of getting rid of Rick and I suspect it was Sophie. We haven't seen what her plan is, but I think she believes that keeping the status quo is an important part of getting there. Sophie seems to be the most complete package of strategic thinking, challenge performance and overall likability left in the game. I believe she is also in the best position to win against any of her tribemates and I suspect that she thinks the same thing too.



1. David vs. Goliath – Are you ready for Ozzy vs. Cochran next week? Through two seasons of Redemption Island duels its amazing to think that this is the first real grudge match that we've ever seen on Redemption Island. The oddsmakers in Vegas aren't giving Cochran a chance but the stage is set for what would be the greatest upset in Survivor history... and perhaps the history of humankind. Unfortunately for Cochran, through 11 episodes and a recap we haven't seen any type of challenge that he excels at so barring the duel being the fastest time to complete the Sunday New York Times crossword puzzle, I think this truly may be the end for Cochran.



I know plenty of you are waiting to tell me that I'm still wrong about Cochran's move, so go right ahead. Tell me what you think on twitter, I'm @robcesternino – and maybe just even a few of you might agree with me.



