It's a good time for resolutions, and mine is to get a grip. Write with focus. Unfortunately this column's often become so absorbed in the detail occurring around us that it's missing the big trends. A New Year offers an opportunity to change that; frame objectives; and achieve them. But if we're going to accomplish anything it's necessary to understand our environment first. So some predictions for the year ahead.

Malcolm Turnbull will go. Not immediately perhaps, but even he's clever enough to realise it's been more than a decade since a prime minister who led a party to victory has been given the opportunity to lead his colleagues to the subsequent election. He's finished. The only issue still to be determined is the manner of his going. Personally, I think he'll grow bored as soon as he understands his impotence to achieve anything.

Bill Shorten will go. His party won't give him the credit for destroying Tony Abbott or Turnbull: they think both were demolished by their own flaws. Now Labor realises its next leader will become PM, the manoeuvring has already begun. Nothing's firm, yet, however Shorten's prolonged run of poor polling (despite the government's incompetence) condemns him.

The deficit will remain untouched. Although economic issues – and particularly spendthrift governments – have been at the centre of our political disillusionment since the crisis of 2008 became apparent, neither party will be willing to make the bold calls necessary to deal with these. Yet until this occurs the country will continue drifting. Politicians will be too afraid to risk the wrath of the electorate to take the vital decisions that are urgently necessary if people are to believe Australia offers an inclusive future for everyone.