(Updates: 6:06am data for Presidential and Senate, and added confidence intervals. 9:00 am: more description, also variance minimization.)

Here are the final snapshots. Four Senate races are within one percentage point: Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. Partisans there may want to lawyer up for possible recount battles.

Soon I’ll put out a brief Geek’s Guide to the Election. Also, live blogging starting around 8:00 pm.

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President: Hillary Clinton (D).

The Presidential estimates are based on the current snapshot in the right sidebar, except for the most-probable-single-outcome map, where variance minimization was done to give a more stable snapshot for North Carolina, Clinton +1.0 ± 1.0% (N=8 polls).

Most probable single outcome (shown on map below): Clinton 323 EV, Trump 215 EV. This is also the mode of the NC-adjusted histogram.

Median: Clinton 307 EV, Trump 231 EV. Meta-Margin: 2.2%. One-sigma range: Clinton 281-326 EV. The win probability is 93% using the revised assumption of polling error, +/- 1.1%.

(Why doesn’t this probability necessarily match the probability in the snapshot histogram?)

National popular vote: Clinton +4.0 ± 0.6%.

Senate

Where possible, variance minimization was used to identify a time window that gave lower variance than the standard time window.

Mode: 51 Democratic/Independent seats, 49 Republican seats; the most likely single combination is shown in the table below.

Median: 50 Democratic/Independent seats, 50 Republican seats. (average=50.4 ± 1.1 ; the 1-sigma range rounds to 49 to 51 seats)



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House

Generic Congressional ballot: Democratic +1%, about the same as 2012.

Cook Political Report-based expectation: 239 R, 196 D, an 8-seat gain for Democrats.