For the first time since 2006, the first weekend of May (which is commonly regarded as the start of the summer movie season) will not see the launch of a new Marvel title. Of course, one will still be topping the box office with over $100 million. In terms of newcomers, three new wide releases are shooting for sub-2,000 theater counts; the motherhood drama Tully, indie thriller Bad Samaritan, and the rom-com remake Overboard.

Avengers: Infinity War is targeting a drop of around 55% this weekend, following a less front-loaded than expected opening and very good weekday performance. That would mean a second weekend of around $115-$125 million realistically, and with no real competition to speak of, that is by no means an impossible goal.

The widest new release of the weekend is Bad Samaritan at roughly 1,400 theaters – though strangely enough, it’s all but guaranteed to be the lowest grossing of the three. This is the first distribution for Electric Entertainment, founded by Samaritan director Dean Devlin, who has primarily served as a producer across various projects, but made his directorial debut last year with Geostorm. With virtually no advertising, it’s hard to imagine Bad Samaritan making more than $2-3 million this weekend. A Quiet Place is still drawing a decent crowd, and audiences just had another low budget kidnapping thriller from Traffik a few weeks ago.

Tully is another example of a film that seems to be tailored to arthouse audiences instead opting for a nationwide release right from the get go. Tully has branded itself as being the latest project from the creators of Young Adult, which peaked in less than 1,000 theaters and took in around $16 million total. Even with strong reviews, it’s hard to imagine Tully making much of a dent outside of major cities, and will likely open with less than $5 million.

Finally, Overboard is the gender-swapped remake of the romantic comedy of the same name, starring Anna Farris and Eugenio Derbez. The closest comparison here is likely Hot Pursuit, another comedy with a popular Hispanic actor with a fairly well known American star, and both releasing a week after an Avengers title. Hot Pursuit made it to around $13.9 million during its opening, but the difference is that film opened in over 3,000 theaters, versus Overboard‘s 1,600. That would signify an opening of around $10-$12 million at best, with the possibility of landing in the high single digits.

In the specialty market, Disobedience will be expanding into several additional cities, while A24’s Lean on Pete will see its widest weekend yet.

Predictions

Avengers: Infinity War – $119M Overboard – $9.5M A Quiet Place – $6.5M I Feel Pretty – $5M Tully – $4M

Bad Samaritan – $1.4M