2013 College football countdown | No. 12: Texas

Paul Myerberg | USA TODAY Sports

Let's get down to brass tacks, not pull any punches and tell it like it is: If Texas doesn't win 10 or more games in 2013 and win the Big 12 title, it's time for the university to move in a different direction. This team is loaded with not just talent but experienced talent, and with no clear frontrunner in the Big 12, the league should be viewed as the Longhorns' for the taking.

This is the theme as UT heads into the opener. Expectations plus optimism equals Texas, basically. Fair, unfair? Alas, such is life. The Longhorns have been building to this season for several years, since the program bottomed out in 2010, and with a more seasoned staff joining a more seasoned roster, anything less than a BCS berth could be – or should be – construed as a failure.

What year is this? Yeah, it's 2013, but the above two paragraphs could sit in place of any season for the last decade, with a nip and tuck here and there. This is one of those programs where you're always on the hot seat, with the chair's temperature defined only by what have you done for me lately. Lately, Texas has been on a rollercoaster; as a result, Mack Brown's seat is pretty toasty. But don't act like this year is different than any other – because this is Texas, and expectations are always bigger here.

LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION

It's all about quarterback play – because the Longhorns will win eight games even if Ash and McCoy scuffle, but they can win 10 or more should UT hand Ash the ball and let him run with this offense. My take? Texas is the first team I've previewed all summer that I can see winning the national title. But that is contingent on UT getting better-than-average play at quarterback, and it's too early to make such a prediction. Instead, look for this defense and an improved offense to lead the Longhorns back to double-digit wins and BCS berth, with the Red River Rivalry deciding the Big 12 title. Texas is ready for a major bounce-back season.

2012 RECAP

— In a nutshell: If it means anything, this team was better than UT's 2011 version, which was in turn better than the program's 2010 version. So strides have clearly been made, particularly on offense, which averaged 35.69 points per game – up from 28.08 points per game a year before. In hindsight, the general story last season was UT's continued growth as a team, whether on the roster or the coaching staff. That the offense has gelled so well reflected well on coordinator Bryan Harsin, who parlayed his successful rebuilding job into a spot as Gus Malzahn's replacement at Arkansas State. But the defensive staff – led by Manny Diaz – has sat behind the curve, suffering a drop in production just as the offense found its rhythm. A year later, the Longhorns are more experienced in personnel and along the sideline.

— High point: A 56-50 win against Baylor, one of four in a row against Big 12 competition after a for-the-ages loss to Oklahoma in Dallas. The defense would play well from Kansas through TCU, allowing only 16.5 points per game and 5.06 yards per play during this four-game span.

— Low point: The 63-21 loss to Oklahoma. UT has dropped three in a row to the Sooners after a short winning streak, with the last pair by a combined score of 118-38.

— Tidbit: The bloom is off the rose a touch, but let's consider what Texas has achieved during Brown's 15 seasons compared to the 15 years prior to his arrival. The Longhorns have nine seasons with 10 or more wins under Brown, compared to three from 1983-1997. UT has 13 nine-win seasons and 14 eight-win seasons, compared to three and six, respectively. The Longhorns have finished with a national ranking in 13 of Brown's 15 seasons, with only six during the previous 15 years. Finally, and perhaps most impressively, Brown has led UT to 10 bowl wins. The Longhorns had only two bowl victories from 1983-97.

— Tidbit (good company edition): Texas has been the nation's third-most successful team since Brown's arrival in 1998. During this span, the Longhorns' 150 wins ranks third in the FBS, behind Boise State (162 wins) and Oklahoma (152) and just ahead of Ohio State (148).

— Tidbit (2020 edition): Earlier this week, Brown told Pat Forde of Yahoo! Sports he plans to coach until the 2020 season. If that means through the 2020 season and UT averages 10 wins per season – a very safe estimate, especially if Brown wants to reach that year – he'll retire with 316 career wins, the fourth-most in major-college history. (This subtracts Joe Paterno's wins since vacated by the NCAA.) Only four major coaches have won 300 games: Bobby Bowden (377), Pop Warner (336), Bear Bryant (323) and Amos Alonzo Stagg (314).

FORMER PLAYERS IN THE NFL

— 43: LB Emmanuel Acho (Philadelphia), LB Sam Acho (Arizona), OG Justin Blalock (Atlanta), CB Tarell Brown (San Francisco), CB Curtis Brown (Pittsburgh), CB Chykie Brown (Baltimore), RB Jamaal Charles (Kansas City), K Phil Dawson (San Francisco), TE Jermichael Finley (Green Bay), WR Marquise Goodwin (Buffalo), S Michael Griffin (Tennessee), OT Tony Hills (Oakland), DE Lamarr Houston (Oakland), S Michael Huff (Baltimore), CB Quentin Jammer (Denver), LB Derrick Johnson (Kansas City), LS Cullen Loeffler (Minnesota), QB Colt McCoy (San Francisco), DT Henry Melton (Chicago), DT Roy Miller (Jacksonville), DE Brandon Moore (San Diego), LB Roddrick Muckelroy (Washington), RB Chris Ogbonnaya (Cleveland), LB Alex Okafor (Arizona), DT Frank Okam (New York Giants), LB Brian Orakpo (Washington), DT Kheeston Randall (Miami), DE Cory Redding (Indianapolis), LB Keenan Robinson (Washington), DE Brian Robison (Minnesota), DT Shaun Rogers (New York Giants), CB Aaron Ross (New York Giants), OT Jonathan Scott (Chicago), C Lyle Sendlein (Arizona), WR Jordan Shipley (Jacksonville), OG David Snow (Buffalo), OG Kasey Studdard (Tennessee), S Earl Thomas (Seattle), K Justin Tucker (Baltimore), S Kenny Vaccaro (New Orleans), RB Fozzy Whittaker (San Diego), S Aaron Williams (Buffalo), QB Vince Young (Green Bay).

ARBITRARY TOP FIVE LIST

— Celebrity college football fans

1. Matthew McConaughey (Texas)

2. Regis Philbin (Notre Dame)

3. Adam Duritz (California)

4. Snoop Dogg (USC)

5. Will Ferrell (USC)

COACHING

— Mack Brown (Florida State '74), 150-43 with the Longhorns after 15 seasons in Austin. He has led Texas back into some degree of national relevancy during the last two years, when UT returned to bowl play after a one-year absence, but there's more work to be done: UT has still won only 17 games since 2011, a far cry from the program's heyday. But Brown created a juggernaut, and with this creation comes the oversized expectations for a program that had tasted nothing but success since his arrival in 1998. But the Longhorns have clearly turned a corner after a seven-loss finish in 2010.

The Longhorns had finished among the top 15 in the nation in each of the previous 10 seasons prior to 2010, a program record. Each of Brown's last nine teams, prior to 2010, had won at least 10 games, including the tremendous 2005 squad that went 13-0 and won the national championship. While Brown's first three Texas teams were strong – at least nine wins every season – it had been over the following nine years that the Longhorns moved into the national elite. From 2001-9, Texas went 101-17 – the best mark in the nation – with five seasons with at least 11 wins, three 10-win seasons and the aforementioned undefeated campaign. The national title team, led by Vince Young at quarterback, erased the idea that Brown couldn't win the big one, a train of thought that pointed to Brown's recruiting successes and lack of postseason accolades.

Prior to arriving in Austin, Brown spent 10 years at North Carolina, where he transformed a moribund program into one worthy of challenging Florida State for ACC supremacy. After back-to-back 1-10 seasons to start his tenure (1988-89), Brown led the Tar Heels on a steady climb into the top 10; he won 10 games three times, including in each of his final two seasons. Brown's first FBS coaching stop was at Tulane, where he performed another rebuilding project. After going 1-10 in 1985, the Green Wave rebounded to reach six wins in 1987, his final season before leaving for Chapel Hill.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

— Offense: David Ash holds the key to the whole deal, as was the case a year ago. As such, his growth in the starting lineup portends well for the growth of this entire offense, which improved dramatically in its second season under former coordinator Bryan Harsin. With Harsin off to the Sun Belt, UT will turn its offense over to Major Applewhite, who has a degree of experience calling plays on the FBS level. Applewhite's ability to push the right buttons will be vital, but his ability to maintain Ash's current climb will end up defining the Longhorns' attack. Just sit back and enjoy: Ash had a solid sophomore season, throwing for 2,699 yards and 18 touchdowns, and should increase his statistical output as he accumulates more and more confidence as the Longhorns' centerpiece. What's the biggest theme? In a league largely devoid of proven quarterback play – Pachall, perhaps, but little else – Ash's experience and past level of production gives UT a distinct advantage over their primary BCS competition. Whether Ash can play himself into the Heisman Trophy conversation is a given; win and he's in, as they say. But beyond his own accolades, Ash must put a firm and steady hand on the rudder to help UT finally break back into the championship conversation. I don't doubt Ash's own ability or, by extension, the ability of this offense. Behind the junior, UT returns senior Case McCoy, the most experienced backup in the conference, and will look for ways to utilize true freshman Tyrone Swoops, the heir apparent.

The Longhorns' backfield is one of the best in the nation. Individually, all three primary contributors could start for the overwhelming majority of teams in the FBS; as a group, they hand UT the ability to roll out quality back after quality back, propelling this running game into relevancy after a distressing multiple-year swoon. The starter, such as it is, will be sophomore Johnathan Gray (701 yards), who hit the ground running as a true freshman. Behind Gray, UT has juniors Malcolm Brown (324 yards), who will bounce back from an injury-plagued season, and Joe Bergeron (567 yards and 16 touchdowns), who has an obvious nose for the end zone. While Daje Johnson could play either running back or wide receiver, UT shifted former quarterback Jalen Overstreet to running back to add further depth. He shouldn't be needed: Texas has three very strong running backs to lead the way.

The whole gang is back up front. Problem solved, right? Well… technically, UT has the sort of experience and depth along the offensive line to make a grouping of consistent concern into an unqualified team strength. Pardon me if I remain a touch hesitant to heap praise on a group that must still prove itself – because we've been here before, and it could pay to be realistic. Let's go with the best-case scenario: Texas lands vastly increased production from the same starting five as a season ago, with Donald Hawkins and Josh Cochran at tackle, Trey Hopkins and Mason Walters at guard and Dominic Espinosa at center. This would give this offense almost unparalleled continuity up front. But this might not be feasible, should JUCO transfer Desmond Harrison grab a starting job on the outside. If he's the answer at left tackle, Hawkins could move to left guard and Hopkins to center, putting Espinosa into a backup role. Harrison could also leapfrog past Cochrane at right tackle – or just swing between both spots, greatly increasing UT's depth. So while the line's in some flux, one thing is clear: UT has more depth than at any point in five years. But the pressure is on potential reserves like Sedrick Flowers and Garrett Porter to step up and give line coach Stacy Searles more options. In all, it could be the amount of bodies that makes this group better, not necessarily the fact the same starting five return from 2012 – though that's an obvious positive.

— Defense: The weakest link in last year's defense was the linebackers, a position of historic strength that bottomed out due to injuries, graduation and attrition. The group will be better in 2013, but will it be good enough? Returning junior Jordan Hicks is a good start: Hicks is a linchpin piece for this defense, and there some correlation between his season-ending injury three games into last fall and the decline of the Longhorns' attack – though that UT then entered Big 12 play contributed to the defensive swoon. Hicks is suited for the weak side, where he's started and played well in the past, so that he's slated to serve on the strong side is a bit confusing. But he and sophomore weak side linebacker Peter Jinkens (29 tackles, 3.0 for loss) will flank junior Steve Edmond (103 tackles, 6.0 for loss), who should fend off Dalton Santos for the starting job in the middle. In addition to the starting trio, UT has Santos, Tevin Jackson, Kendall Thompson and Aaron Benson, among a few others. It's obvious that the staff has a better idea of Jinkens' capabilities heading into his second season. I trust they know what they're doing in moving Hicks to the strong side.

The secondary will flourish despite losing Kenny Vaccaro, a first-team all-conference pick. His role as UT's nickel back – continuing a ballyhooed tradition – will be junior Quandre Diggs (59 tackles, 4 interceptions), an All-American candidate with the size and toughness to flourish as a pressuring, aggressive, ball-hawking defensive back. Along the back end, UT will team senior Adrian Phillips (72 tackles, 2 interceptions) with junior Mykkele Thompson (59 tackles), who played significantly in UT's sub-packages a year ago; behind Thompson, the Longhorns have junior Josh Turner (49 tackles, 2 interceptions). With Diggs moving to the nickel spot, UT will lean on Sheroid Evans and Duke Thomas on the outside, along with returning starter Carrington Byndom (55 tackles, 3 interceptions). There is talent to burn in the secondary.

The defensive front needs a healthy season from senior end Jackson Jeffcoat (31 tackles, 11.0 for loss); when healthy, Jeffcoat is one of the premier defensive linemen in college football. That he missed seven games a year ago can be a positive thing: Jeffcoat's injury handed key playing time to junior Cedric Reed (46 tackles, 8.0 for loss), who will be a full-time starter in 2013. Senior Reggie Wilson (31 tackles) closed strong a year ago, giving UT a nice third option, and sophomore Shiro Davis and redshirt freshmen Bryce Cottrell and Caleb Bluiett should see extensive time in the rotation. The situation at tackle is a bit more proven on the second tier: Malcom Brown (25 tackles) and Ashton Dorsey (28 tackles, 10.0 for loss) will start, but the Longhorns will also use Chris Whaley, Desmond Jackson, Hassan Ridgeway, Alex Norman and Paul Boyette. In what doesn't look like a banner year for Big 12 defensive linemen, UT has four players capable of all-conference honors.

— Special teams: Daje Johnson seems the likeliest to take over for Marquise Goodwin and D.J. Monroe on kickoff returns, though Diggs and Duke Thomas are in the equation. Diggs will continue working on punts, as he did a year ago. Former Penn State transfer Anthony Fera could be UT's starting kicker and punter – or he could be neither. Fera is competing with Nick Jordan at kicker and Williams Russ at punter, with the final decision likely made in the coming days.

POSITION(S) TO WATCH

— Wide receiver: The Longhorns have battled through injuries at the position during fall camp, with four of the team's top options missing some degree of time with one ailment or another, and this is not a good thing: Applewhite will put more pressure on the receiver corps, leaning more on multiple-receiver sets, so UT does need to go six or seven deep at the position. One definite contributor, junior Bryant Jackson, will be out indefinitely with a broken foot. Another, sophomore Marcus Johnson, sprained his MCL on Aug. 12, placing his availability in doubt. And a third cog in the rotation, sophomore Kendall Sanders, is currently sidelined with an ankle injury, though it doesn't seem serious. When the dust clears, Texas must find a bigger receiver to use on the perimeter – since Marquise Goodwin is gone, having graduated, and would-be sophomore Cayleb Jones left the program during the summer. Okay, deep breaths. The Longhorns' passing game will still be headlined by senior Mike Davis (57 receptions for 939 yards) and junior Jaxon Shipley (59 for 737), as good a pair as you'll find in the Big 12. Sanders should be fine, so he'll slot into a major role. At some point, UT will welcome Johnson and Jackson back into the mix. At tight end, UT should really like the combination of JUCO transfer Geoff Swain, sophomore M.J. McFarland and junior Greg Daniels, with Swain the more prototypical option and McFarland nimble enough to stretch the field. Remember that the offense wants to put more speed on the field at one time, but it's not necessarily mandatory that the perimeter group hurting for depth – Johnson, the many incoming freshmen – supply enormous production. They're needed almost as much for edge blocking as receiving, in a way, and UT could conceivably scheme around that issue while the group rounds back into shape.

GAME(S) TO WATCH

— Oklahoma: I see the Longhorns and Sooners as the two best teams in the Big 12, though it's a crowded race at the top – since Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU and Baylor are very much in the BCS conversation. But unlike in the recent past, this year's Red River Rivalry should have a very meaningful impact on the Big 12's automatic bid; while other games are vital, like the finale in Waco, this year's date with OU will impact the Longhorns' quest for national contention unlike any other on the schedule. It'd also just be nice to beat Oklahoma, you know.

SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: Things rarely go as planned. But if the trend holds, Texas will win the Big 12, reach a BCS bowl and make a dent in the national championship race. It all began with that forgettable 2010 season, which forced Brown to alter his staff and the way his program went about its business on the field and on the recruiting trail. Three years later, the Longhorns have a veteran staff, an experienced team and vastly increased depth – three qualities shared with precious few other programs in the FBS. There are variables at play here, true, but the picture is clear: Texas has all the pieces to return to the national conversation.

That we've been here before cannot be ignored. Nor should it determine the way we look at this specific team, however. The Longhorns have the Big 12's best quarterback – or at least its most experienced, and experience is often the deciding factor. The backfield is the league's deepest. The defensive line is the Big 12's best. Likewise with the secondary. The offensive line will be the best in several seasons, even if we're in wait-and-see mode with the entire group. That leaves three concerns: depth at wide receiver, improved linebacker play and the special teams. The receiver position will turn out fine once the meat of the rotation is healthy. Bringing back Hicks gives the second level an enormous boost. The kicking game is a worry – no way around that.

Again, the pieces are in place. Can Texas deliver? Much like Florida State, another proud program now back in our good graces, UT needs to manifest its positive attributes in the win column before being back, as we're all fully aware. How close is this team? Honestly, I think of it this way: It's now or never. If Texas can't win with this team, with this talent and this experience, it'll never win until even more drastic changes are made. Yeah, the pressure is on. Welcome to Texas.

— Dream season: Texas wins 12 games and returns to the national title game to meet Alabama, just as in 2009.

— Nightmare season: The Longhorns lose to Oklahoma, Kansas State, TCU and Baylor, once again heading into the postseason at 8-4 overall, 5-4 in the Big 12.

— All-name team nominee: FB Chet Moss.

UP NEXT

— Who is No. 11? This program's first win came on Thanksgiving. (Not last Thanksgiving.)

2013 TEAM OVERVIEW

— Conference: Big 12

— Location: Austin, Texas

— Nickname: Longhorns

— Returning starters: 19 (10 offense, 9 defense)

— Last year's ranking: No. 8

— 2012 record: 9-4 (5-4)

— Last year's re-ranking: No. 21

— 2013 schedule:

Aug. 31 New Mexico State

Sept. 7 at Brigham Young

Sept. 14 Mississippi

Sept. 21 Kansas State

Oct. 3 at Iowa State

Oct. 12 vs. Oklahoma (in Dallas)

Oct. 26 at TCU

Nov. 2 Kansas

Nov. 9 at West Virginia

Nov. 16 Oklahoma State

Nov. 28 Texas Tech

Dec. 7 at Baylor

Paul Myerberg, a national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports, is on Twitter @PaulMyerberg.