Picture this — it’s 7 a.m. on a Monday and you wake up in your bed in Oakville. At 8 a.m. on-the-dot, you’re at your desk in downtown Toronto, but this time you’re in a completely different province.

The province of Toronto seems like a far-fetched idea, for sure, but that hasn’t stopped people from talking about it in the week since Premier Doug Ford’s surprise announcement he plans to cut city council almost in half.

“Secession,” now-mayoral candidate Jennifer Keesmaat tweeted last week, shortly after the Star broke the story of Ford’s plan. “Now I have had a chance to sleep on it. Secession. Why should a city of 2.8 million not have self governance?” she wrote the next morning.

(Her words were a reaction to the news, not a policy statement, she clarified in a later interview with the Star, arguing that Canada’s largest cities need “more autonomy,” not legal independence.)

But wait, is an independent Toronto even possible? Here’s a look at Toronto secession, what it would take, and why it’s very, very unlikely to happen.

How long have people been talking about secession?

The idea resurfaces every few years, especially at times when Torontonians feel aggrieved by changes imposed by the province.

Back in 1999, then Toronto mayor Mel Lastman suggested the city should secede from the province amid a fight with premier Mike Harris’s over plans to “download” more provincial responsibilities onto the city. Although Lastman later said he was half-joking, the argument prompted council to debate holding a referendum.

It’s not just Toronto city politicians who have talked about secession: Eight years ago, Bruce — Grey — Owen Sound MPP Bill Murdoch said that secession would be a good idea, stating the province could focus on rural issues without having to deal with big-city issues. “I’ve been thinking about it for years,” Murdoch told the Star in 2010. “Every law we pass at Queen’s Park has a Toronto mentality.”

“Province of Toronto ... an idea whose time has come?” then mayor David Miller wrote in a tweet, which has since been deleted, reacting to Murdoch’s suggestion.

Why would Toronto want to be a province?

For many reasons, the main one being that it would grant the city more power.

Cities like Toronto are municipalities, the lowest level of Canada’s three-level system of government. But those levels are not equal by any means — Canada’s founding document, the Constitution Act of 1867, does not define what a municipality is or does; it merely says the provinces “may exclusively make Laws in relation to” municipal institutions.

In essence, that wording gives a city as much power to govern itself as its province decides it should have, with the rules varying greatly across the country.

“Like a parent, one province can allow municipalities little discretion while another allows extensive independence,” reads a June 2000 report on secession prepared by Toronto’s city solicitor shortly after Lastman brought up the topic.

Does that mean the province can do whatever it wants with Toronto?

Basically, yes.

There are limited exceptions to this, but “cities have no independent constitutional ability to resist whatever conditions the provinces opt to create for them,” urbanist Alan Broadbent wrote in an essay in Toronto: Considering Self-Government, published in 2000.

“The provinces have the ability to dictate the size and structure of city government, to set the conditions of their ability to raise capital, and to apply duties and obligations to them,” he wrote.

So, is secession even possible?

The short answer is: yes.

The long answer is: Yes, but it’s very, very unlikely to happen.

The creation of a new province requires an amendment to Canada’s Constitution, and that doesn’t happen without the approval of the House of Commons, Senate and at least two-thirds of the provinces representing at least 50 per cent of Canada’s population.

But this specific amendment is even more difficult than that. According to the 2000 report from the city solicitor, the constitution also gives the province the right to opt out of any amendment that takes away from its legislative powers, meaning Ontario would have to agree to secession.

Another catch is that constitutional changes are big, national debates, and Quebec — the second largest province by population — is unlikely to consider any new ones unless its own issues are tabled, according to Stephen Azzi, a political science professor at Carleton.

“Quebec has been pushing for constitutional change for generations,” Azzi said. “Why would the province agree to other provinces’ amendments before its own issues have been addressed?”

So, not likely unless Toronto can demonstrate widespread support for independence within the city and across the GTA, and Ontario agrees, said Scott Bennett, a professor in the political science department at Carleton University.

“Certainly no institutions outside Ontario would consider this seriously unless the provincial government was on (Toronto’s) side and there was a lot of support for secession in Toronto itself,” Bennett the Star.

Jonathan Malloy, another Carleton political science professor, was more blunt — calling the idea “pretty much impossible.”

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

OK, but what would Toronto gain from being independent?

More powers over taxation, for one thing.

Secession would give Toronto control over provincial income taxes and other sources of income currently managed by the province. “A province of Toronto would have new taxing powers and could control its own destiny a bit more,” Bennett said.

“However, it would lose the tax base support from the rest of the province,” he said. “I think many would argue that Toronto has benefited from this in special financing for transportation and such.”

Also, you can’t ignore the fact that “Province of Toronto” sounds nice.

“It’s not a legal question,” Petrozzi said, “it’s about people’s sense of belonging. Toronto has the scale, economy, our geography works, it’s all good. And we’ve always been considered different from the rest of Ontario.”

What’s the downside?

As a province, there would be fewer direct means for other governments to bail out Toronto if it got into fiscal trouble, Bennett said.

“However, we can assume that Ottawa would probably not allow a financial collapse in Toronto to descend into complete chaos,” he wrote.

How would this affect Toronto’s economy? What about trade?

Ryerson professor Wayne Petrozzi — who told the Star there’s “no reason why (secession) couldn’t work” — said Toronto’s economy would do fine, quite well even, after secession.

“Our GDP ranks among the top 20 countries around the world, and we have a population larger than many UN nations,” he said. “We’re much more diverse and better educated than a lot of the province, and we’ve always been considered different.”

“Of course it’s viable,” he said.

How would this affect Toronto’s relationship with Ontario? With Canada?

It’s fair to say Toronto may not have the best relationship with Ontario after secession, especially given the city is responsible for quite a bit of Ontario’s GDP.

“There’s usually some frosty relationships that develop after a secession movement,” Petrozzi said.

The rest of Canada would likely be upset too, Petrozzi said, in part because the change would create problems and considerably more work for the federal government.

What would the new boundaries be? Would it be just Toronto, or would it include any parts of the GTA?

Most of the experts we spoke to said it made the most sense for the borders to match Toronto’s current boundaries, excluding the rest of the GTA, but this is a question for the future secession movement to decide.