This article is part of the Guardian’s 2018 World Cup Experts’ Network, a cooperation between some of the best media organisations from the 32 countries who have qualified for Russia. theguardian.com is running previews from two countries each day in the run-up to the tournament kicking off on 14 June.

Even though this will be Iceland’s first World Cup, the squad have plenty of experience in terms of years and international caps won together. The smallest nation to play in the finals found their form in stunning fashion shortly after Lars Lagerbäck and Heimir Hallgrímsson took charge at the end of 2011, and the team has been largely based on the same group of players, formation and strategy since. These players aim to surprise the world this summer, just as they did by reaching the quarter-finals at Euro 2016.

Hannes Thór Halldórsson: keeper and film director ready for Iceland sequel Read more

“Our aim is clear and that is to qualify from the group,” Hallgrímsson said when he announced the World Cup squad. “When we qualify we will not have to fear any possible opponent because we will have left two of Argentina, Croatia and Nigeria out.”

Whereas Lagerbäck – who quit after Euro 2016 – was wedded to a 4-4-2 formation, Hallgrímsson has been shifting towards 4-5-1 against stronger nations. This gives the captain, Aron Gunnarsson, more help in defending with the calm and confident passer Emil Hallfredsson by his side, and allows the sharp-shooting Gylfi Sigurdsson a free role in front of them. Gunnarsson and Sigurdsson, arguably the team’s most important players, have made the perfect midfield pair for years but have grappled with injuries coming into the World Cup. Being without one of them would be a blow for Iceland, but Hallfredsson and Birkir Bjarnason have shown they can step in.

Barring injuries, Bjarnason and Jóhann Berg Gudmundsson will play on the wings. Gudmundsson is always a threat with his left foot but Bjarnason also has an eye for goal, and both are very disciplined defensively. That goes for the whole team, even the main strikers Jón Dadi Bödvarsson, who never stops running, and Alfred Finnbogason of Augsburg, who is one of the Bundesliga’s best goalscorers.

Iceland will play defensively but seek to punish opponents with well-worked counterattacks and from set pieces, not least the long throw-ins of Gunnarsson. They aim to form the best-organised and most disciplined team in the world but also have great individual qualities in a golden generation of midfielders and strikers who should be reaching their peak.

Hannes Thor Halldórsson has been solid as Iceland‘s first-choice goalkeeper for the past six years, with the central defenders and best friends Kári Árnason and Ragnar Sigurdsson in front of him. The pair attracted much attention in Euro 2016 but since then Sverrir Ingi Ingason has moved very near to taking one of their spots. Hördur Magnússon, aged 25, is a tall but technical left-back and the youngest player in the starting lineup. The speedy Birkir Már Saevarsson is first pick at right-back.

Iceland arrive in Russia in good shape with Sigurdsson having played in the two pre-World Cup friendlies against Norway and Ghana after missing so much of Everton’s season. One surprise, however, was that Iceland conceded five goals in those two games. Hallgrímsson will need to ensure that does not happen at the tournament itself.

Probable starting XI

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Iceland probable starting XI

Which player is going to surprise everyone at the World Cup?

Jóhann Berg Gudmundsson. He has become increasingly valuable to Iceland in recent years and his left foot is likely to turn heads in Russia. He arrives off the back of a terrific season with Burnley, where he had a big influence in earning the club a Europa League spot. Everyone expects Gylfi Sigurdsson to lead Iceland’s attacking game but Gudmundsson may take over and has the whole package with his speed, technique, shooting and passing, along with good defensive awareness.

Which player is likely to disappoint?

Birkir Már Saevarsson. Chose to come home and play for Valur in Iceland’s semi-pro local league, which may affect his game in Russia. He has also had little or no competition for the right-back role and may feel a little bit too comfortable. Solid in almost every match until now but may prove a weak link against some of the best wingers in the world.

What is the realistic aim for Iceland at the World Cup and why?

Qualification for the knockout stage is a realistic aim for Iceland but there is no room for error. The downside of having a team that has played for so long together, who know each other inside-out, is that much depends on these players being fit and ready.

Sindri Sverrisson writes for Morgunbladid.

Follow him on Twitter here.