As the Euro group came to an agreement on Greece this morning, there was a lot of talk about Grexit being off the table for a while. As a keen observer of the Finnish political scene, it is obvious that the road to a final ‘Yes’ is far from clear.

The Finns Party, lead by Timo Soini, were very vocal in the criticism of all the bailouts while they were in opposition. Now they are a part of the three party coalition government. The prime minister Juha Sipilä made it very clear in his press statement that the position of the government on the deal achieved is still open.

There seem to be a limited amount of possible scenarios of varying probabilities. Some of the scenarios contain sub-scenarios.

Here are the possibilities that seem possible:

Soini will rally his troops or most of them and they will vote with their coalition partners for the deal. This will lead to much internal conflict in the Finns Party and also make the job of the opposition easy, as the U-turn in policy is impossible to hide. Soini won’t rally his troops. This leads most likely to the government turning fully against the package. A less likely possibility could be getting the government support from the opposition parties in the vital votes as most of the opposition parties are much less euro skeptical than the Finns Party. If Soini agrees to this procedure, this could make it possible for the government to continue. If Soini disagrees with the procedure, the Finnish government will fall as an exit of the Finns Party would leave the government without 50 percent of the parliament seats. The government coalition decides together to be against the agreement. This leads to a very uncertain scenario in the Eurogroup. Grexit would not be off the table. Another option would be to invoke the emergency clause of the ESM that would require only 85 % of the votes that have been allocated in proportion to the ownership portions of the fund. In this case Finland would not make a large dent in the votes. However it is not clear if using the emergency clause is possible.

I would think that the lost prestige for Soini is too large in scenario 1. If you strip away vocal opposition to bailouts from Soini’s populist the Finns Party, not much is left. It is hard to state how big of a PR disaster this would be for him. Internal mutiny within the party would be almost certain and loss of votes huge.

Scenario number 2 with Soini’s consent would also be a very odd position for his party. We have already heard rumblings from the party lines that this would not stand. Help from the opposition cannot be guaranteed either. The government would also look weak as a whole which would not be to the liking of the prime minister’s Center Party.

If I was a betting man, I think I would go with scenario number 3. This would suggest tough times for negotiators in the days to come on the European stage. I personally am not convinced that the emergency clause is off the table, until Schäuble says so.