If you’re into unlocking value when it comes to betting golf online, join me in this 2020 Sony Open in Hawaii preview. Last week, I got on Justin Thomas winning the Sentry TOC at +500, on top of winning 2/3 “plus-money” matchup picks.

The goal is to keep the good vibes rolling as the PGA Tour strolls into Honolulu. The layout at Waialae Country Club is one that can be attacked by all styles of play, so it comes down to figuring out which players are in form and who can make the most putts.

I’ll introduce various betting markets that are available as well as offer insight and predictions. Below, you’ll find a quick overview of what’s in store.

Odds

Sleepers

Winner Prediction

Matchup Picks

DFS/Lineup Advice for DraftKings

Now let’s get into the meat of this Sony Open in Hawaii betting preview.

2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions Odds

Twenty-three of the 34 who participated in Maui last week made the short trip west to Oahu. In all, 144 PGA Tour players will be in Honolulu competing at the Sony Open.

Take a peek at the 38 golfers BetOnline has installed at +8000 or better to win the golf tournament.

Justin Thomas +550 Patrick Reed +1200 Webb Simpson +1200 Hideki Matsuyama +1400 Collin Morikawa +2000 Matt Kuchar +2500 Sungjae Im +2800 Joaquin Niemann +3300 Abraham Ancer +4000 Brandt Snedeker +4000 Charles Howell III +4000 Marc Leishman +4000 Alex Noren +5000 Andrew Putnam +5000 Brendon Todd +5000 Cameron Smith +5000 Chez Reavie +5000 Corey Conners +5000 J.T. Poston +5000 Kevin Kisner +5000 Rory Sabbatini +5000 Aaron Wise +6600 Brian Harman +6600 Brian Stuard +6600 Dylan Frittelli +6600 Kevin Na +6600 Sebastian Munoz +6600 Vaughn Taylor +6600 Carlos Ortiz +8000 Daniel Berger +8000 Emiliano Grillo +8000 Keegan Bradley +8000 Lanto Griffin +8000 Matt Jones +8000 Russell Knox +8000 Ryan Palmer +8000 Scott Piercy +8000 Shugo Imahira +8000 Click to Open

Who Offers Value at the Sony Open in Hawaii?

At +5000 to emerge at the Sony Open in Hawaii, Cameron Smith is dripping with value. The last time we saw Smith on the links was on Sunday at the Presidents Cup, where he was busy ousting Justin Thomas in the singles session. This young Aussie is absolutely beaming with self-belief, and that could translate into not just one but multiple wins in 2020.

I love the way that Waialae sets up for Cameron’s game, as there are lots of aspects of this event that bode well for Smith’s chances. Currently slotted 8th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and 12th in one-putt percentage, this week’s venue is tailor-made for the Titleist staffer.

In a nutshell, I see some low numbers in his forecast.

A Sleeper to Consider

People are going to sleep on J.T. Poston when they’re scanning the betting sheet looking for a winner. However, those who are immersed in the world of professional golf wouldn’t be surprised if the 26-year-old picked up his second career victory this week in the Aloha State.

Not only did “The Postman” shoot four rounds in the 60s and log a top-20 last season at Waialae CC, but he arrives at the par-70 track in the state’s capital with loads of confidence brewing.

J.T. finished 11th last week at Kapalua thanks to ranking third in strokes gained on the greens, and there’s no reason to think he won’t carry over the positive momentum he’s built up with the flat stick. Heading into Thursday, Poston has shot par or better in nine consecutive rounds.

My Pick to Win the 2020 Sony Open in Hawaii Is…

Considering I spotted Collin Morikawa at +1600 to win the Sony Open at several of the top golf betting sites, I was pretty excited to see the former standout at Cal sitting at +2000 at BetOnline. Despite getting off to a lackluster start at the Plantation Course (+3 thru 5 on Thursday), Morikawa clawed his way back to post a T-7 finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

If you were wondering which parts of his game were working, have faith knowing he striped his driver to the tune of finishing 4th in strokes gained: off-the-tee. His iron game was on point as well (6th in strokes gained: approach-the-green), not to mention he ended the week 5th in putts per GIR.

The short version is this kid has no weaknesses to speak of, plus he’s got the “home-field advantage” narrative going with family living on the island. Add it all up, and I’ve already booked my ticket on Morikawa to win the Sony Open.

Pick Collin Morikawa +2000

Matchup Picks to Target

Abraham Ancer vs. Kevin Kisner

Abraham Ancer -135 Kevin Kisner +115

I’m a big fan of Abraham Ancer. Like everyone else who watched the Presidents Cup, I think the 28-year-old golfer is in for a huge year in 2020. Nonetheless, I’m not ready to back him at -135 against Kevin Kisner in this particular spot.

Kevin entered Sunday’s final round in Maui tied for 4th before eventually tying for 14th, but there’s no doubt he had his competitive juices flowing over the weekend. Kisner didn’t play great at the Sony Open in 2019, but he finished 4th in Honolulu in 2017 and 5th in 2016. I’m all about searching for value in head-to-head matchups, and spotting this former Georgia Bulldog at +115 at a golf course that fits eye – well, that seems like pretty good value to me.

Pick Kevin Kisner +115

Vaughn Taylor vs. Lanto Griffin

Vaughn Taylor -125 Lanto Griffin +105

Talk about a guy who has played some marvelous golf in the 2019/2020 campaign, Lanto Griffin has been on a tear ever since earning his PGA Tour card to close out the summer. Not only did Griffin visit winner’s circle in Houston, but he has already notched a total of 7 top-20 finishes and has earned more than two million bucks.

Now let’s flip the coin.

Vaughn Taylor hasn’t teed it up competitively since before Thanksgiving, and he missed the cut last year at Waialae CC. Frankly, I’d be on board laying money on Lanto this week in a matchup versus Vaughn, so the fact that the bookies will do it for me had me pretty amped up.

Pick Lanto Griffin +105

Hideki Matsuyama vs. Matt Kuchar

Hideki Matsuyama -150 Matt Kuchar +130

As much as I like Hideki this week, and in general, this line seems a bit preposterous to me. Matsuyama hasn’t played since Melbourne a month ago, and he’s yet to crack the top 25 at the Sony Open in Hawaii in six tries. In fact, Matsuyama has actually missed the cut in half of his appearances in Honolulu.

When you examine Matt Kuchar’s history at Waialae, you’ll see that he shot 22-under par and won by four strokes here in 2019. In his two previous stops, he placed 13th and 3rd. Accounting for the data, along with the fact the Kuchar played last week, I’m absolutely enthralled by this +130 price tag. There’s no way I’m going to let it pass me by.

Pick Matt Kuchar +130

DFS Advice for DraftKings

DraftKings has loaded its lobby up with a few really intriguing golf GPPs. For example, $5 buys you an entry into the PGA Tour $300K Drive the Green event, where the winner walks away with a cool $100,000.

If you are stuck and need a little assistance filling out a lineup, perhaps you’ll be enthralled with some of my top choices for the week.

FYI — I didn’t forget about Justin Thomas. I just think fading him in large-field GPPs is the right thing to do given that his ownership percentage is expected to be through the roof.

Top-Tier = Players priced at $9k and up

Mid-Tier = Players priced from $7,500 to $8,900

Low-Tier = Players priced from $6,000 to $7,400

Hideki Matsuyama – $10,500

Rested since the Presidents Cup in Melbourne, look for Hideki Matsuyama to pick up right where he left off. In his last eight starts worldwide dating back to the BMW Championship, Hideki has placed 16th or better seven times. This includes a trio of finishes inside the top three.

Collin Morikawa – $10,300

My pick to win this week has everything working in his favor. Morikawa’s tee-to-green game is immaculate, and it won’t be long until he’s widely regarded as one of the best putters in the game. By heading your lineup with Collin as opposed to JT or Patrick Reed, you’re already setting yourself up to be unique.

Sungjae Im – $9,600

The analysts at the Presidents Cup couldn’t stop raving about this dude’s game — something I have been doing for the better part of the last 18 months. Im registered a tie for 16th last season in his debut at the Sony Open, and he’s remarkably tacked on another 19 top-25 finishes since.

It’s not a question of if Sungjae Im will win in 2020. It’s just a matter of when.

Charles Howell – $9,100

The sun rises in the east, water boils at 212 degrees Fahrenheit, and Charles Howell III plays well at Waialae Country Club.

Seriously, “Chucky Three Sticks” is coming off one of his best seasons as a professional, and he literally always plays well at the Sony Open. I’m not going to overthink it, but instead, I’ll go ahead and pencil him in for another stellar performance.

J.T. Poston – $8,100

Over his last 11 events, J.T. Poston has connected on 10 cuts and made a boatload of money. Poston claimed his first victory at the Wyndham Championship in August and has since added four additional finishes inside the top 15.

Andrew Putnam – $8,000

I shouldn’t have to twist your arm too hard to get you believing that Andrew Putnam’s strengths fit Waialae Country Club to a tee. Putnam might not be one of the longest hitters out here, but he ended the 2018/2019 PGA Tour season ranked 2nd in putting average. The All-American out of Pepperdine tallied 22 birdies and 4 bogies en route to finishing runner-up at the 2019 Sony Open in Hawaii.

Brian Gay – $7,200

Brian Gay finished 7th in Vegas, 3rd at the Bermuda Championship, and 14th at the Mayakoba Classic. Now that you know Gay was on form in the fall, know that he loves doing damage on par-70 courses that place a premium on accuracy.

Ryan Armour – $7,000

Just like Brian Gay, I love targeting Ryan Armour on shorter courses where he has proven he can play well. And just like Brian Gay, Armour shows up in Hawaii after ending the fall portion of the year in a flurry. Ryan posted three top 25s and has shot 70 or better in 12 straight rounds.

Tyler Duncan – $6,800

Tyler Duncan did well to crack the top-20 last week in Maui, but I see him playing much better this week in Honolulu. Rather than be forced to play a big golf course where length is a huge factor, Duncan should be able to prosper at a track that’s more than 500 yards shorter. Duncan hit more than 86% of his fairways at Kapalua, so it’ll just come down to rolling in a few putts.

Zac Blair – $6,700

Zac Blair, a savvy course designer in his spare time, has stated that Seth Raynor is his favorite architect of all time. Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that Blair has made the cut during all three of his trips to Waialae, including finishing 6th in 2015 and 3rd in 2016.

My Lineup in GPPs for the 2020 Sony Open in Hawaii