At least one robocall poll suggests a divisive LRT project has turned Hamilton's mayoral election race into a statistical dead heat.

An automated telephone survey by Forum Research of 1,556 residents showed 39 per cent support pro-LRT incumbent Fred Eisenberger while 38 percent back anti-LRT challenger Vito Sgro. Other respondents either said they will choose another of the 15 mayoral candidates (12%) or were undecided (12%).

Respondents – a majority reached by landline – were similarly divided when asked how they felt about the contentious $1-billion light rail line, said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff. Half said they opposed the project, while 46% were supportive.

And when those residents were specifically informed about the positions of both candidates on LRT and asked to choose between them again, the support split at 43 percent each.

"It is so close, the numbers are almost identical," said Bozinoff of the survey, which claims a margin of error of 2.48%, with total sample results considered accurate 19 times out of 20. "What it means – because municipal voter turnout is not great – is that it is important for both sides to get out their vote on Monday."

Forum Research was not paid for the survey and plans to release the results publicly Friday, said Bozinoff. The firm periodically conducts polls and offers the results for free to drum up clients.

Bozinoff noted light rail transit was also an issue – but not the top priority – for voters polled in a paid Forum survey conducted for The Spectator during the 2014 election.

This time, fully a third of respondents called LRT the top issue that would influence their vote.

By contrast, 17 percent chose taxes, 15 percent chose infrastructure/roads and nine-percent chose public safety. "Often, the top issue is taxes," Bozinoff said. "Clearly, people feel very strongly about this (LRT) issue."

Interestingly, the majority of respondents who offered an opinion about LRT feel passionately about the project, one way or another.

The results broke down this way:

•31% strongly against and 19% not in support;

•30% strongly support and 16% somewhat support

•3% undecided and 1% unfamiliar with the project

The relatively even split doesn't necessarily apply across gender or age groups, however.

After respondents were informed of candidate positions on LRT, support for Eisenberger skewed towards younger voter and women, while Sgro saw more support from older men.

Some critics question the ability of traditional phone polls to accurately represent younger generations of voters who are increasingly cutting the cord on landlines – or just not answering the phone for surveys.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

Bozinoff said a majority of the interactive response surveys went to landlines, rather than cell phones, but he emphasized the poll had a "strong sample size." Forum tries to weight its results to account for the broader voting population. "I don't find a lot of difference" between landline and cell-dominated poll results, he said.

High-profile, badly wrong predictions – like many pollsters infamously fooled by Donald Trump's 2016 win in the U.S. presidential election – are still relatively rare, but we see them in Canada, too.

Forum markets itself as "the most accurate firm" in the business of predicting provincial election results.

But like other pollsters, it has had some screw-ups – like a 30-point Liberal lead attributed to a Brandon federal Liberal candidate who later lost what turned out to be a tight 2013 byelection to his Tory opponent.

Municipally, Forum accurately called the last Hamilton mayoral race, won by Eisenberger over Brad Clark and Brian McHattie. It was also close on the eventual vote percentage for each candidate.

mvandongen@thespec.com

905-526-3241 | @Mattatthespec

- Candidate profiles, ward issues in the 2018 Hamilton municipal election

- LRT interactive: Take a virtual ride along the route

- In between the LRT 'pro' and 'no' sides are those who lost their homes

- What will your mayoral candidate do?