Daniel González

The Republic | azcentral.com

Apprehensions of Central American migrants have increased dramatically compared with a year ago

The biggest spike could be yet to come, as apprehensions historically drop after the holidays and jump in the warmer months

The Obama administration is preparing for a possible surge, and presidential campaigns are likely to seize on the issue

The United States is preparing for another wave of Central American migrants that could arrive at the southern border just as the presidential race swings into high gear.

The unprecedented surge in 2014 created a humanitarian crisis in south Texas that spread to other states, including Arizona.

Caught off guard, the federal government was forced to release hundreds of migrant families at bus stations in Phoenix and Tucson and to temporarily house hundreds of migrant children at detention centers and military bases in Nogales, Ariz.; and Oklahoma; Texas; and California.

Now there are several signs of another big wave of Central Americans. Here's what you need to know about a possible surge.

1. Apprehensions have increased dramatically

After falling in fiscal year 2015, apprehensions of Central Americans are up again.

In 2014, 68,541 unaccompanied children and 68,445 family members traveling together crossed into the U.S. illegally, primarily in south Texas.

They turned themselves over to the Border Patrol in hopes or remaining in the U.S. The majority were fleeing violence and poverty in Central America.

The number of unaccompanied children and family members apprehended by the Border Patrol fell 41 percent in 2015. That was in large part because stepped-up enforcement by the Mexico government prevented many from reaching the U.S. border. The U.S. also set up centers to detain family members instead of releasing them, which may have discouraged some from coming.

But during the first five months of fiscal year 2016, which began Oct. 1, the Border Patrol apprehended 23,553 unaccompanied children. That is nearly twice as many as the 12,490 apprehended during the same period the year before, according to data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

The number of family members apprehended by the Border Patrol since Oct. 1 was even higher at 27,664. That is nearly a 150 percentincrease from the 11,131 apprehended during the same period the year before.

The biggest spike occurred in the last three months of 2015, a time of year when migration is typically low. In December, apprehensions of unaccompanied minors hit 6,775, the highest monthly total since June 2014, according to a database compiled by the Washington Office on Latin America, a think tank in Washington, D.C.

Apprehensions of family members in December totaled 8,974, a record, according to the WOLA database.

During his February visit to the Mexican border city of Juarez, Pope Francis called attention to the wave of Central American migrants attempting to reach the U.S., calling it a "human tragedy."

"We cannot deny the humanitarian crisis which in recent years has meant the migration of thousands of people, whether by train or highway or on foot, crossing hundreds of kilometers through mountains, deserts and inhospitable zones," the pope said. "They are the brothers and sisters of those excluded as a result of poverty and violence, drug trafficking and criminal organizations."

In January and February, apprehensions of unaccompanied minors and family members dropped by more than half, but they remain higher than the same period last year, according to the WOLA data. March data has not been released.

The biggest spike may be yet to come, because historically apprehensions fall after the holidays and then increase during the warmer months.

"We are watching it very closely," Gil Kerlikowske, the commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection, told The Arizona Republic. "I would certainly say I am concerned."

2. Violence in Central America pushing people to leave

The main reason children and families are fleeing from El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala is to escape violence from gangs and organized-crime groups tied to drug trafficking. That violence has not let up, and in El Salvador it has gotten worse.

The three countries, known as the Northern Triangle, recorded 17,422 homicides in 2015, up 11 percent from the year before, according to news reports. Although homicide rates in Guatemala and Honduras have fallen, the rate has soared in El Salvador. That country recorded about 6,650 homicides in 2015, up 70 percent from 2014, according to the website InSight Crime, an organization that tracks crime in Latin America.

With 104 homicides per 100,000 people in 2015, El Salvador is now the most violent country in the world, surpassing Honduras, which in 2012 had a homicide rate of 91 per 100,000, at the time the highest in the world, according to data from the World Bank.

The homicide rate in Honduras fell to 57 per 100,000 in 2015, but that is still the third highest in Latin America, according to InSight Crime. In 2015, Guatemala had a homicide rate of 30 per 100,000, the fifth highest in Latin America, but down from a rate of 34 per 100,000 in 2012.

"I expect people to continue fleeing," said Elizabeth G. Kennedy, a social scientist at San Diego State University.

She lived in El Salvador from October 2013 to December 2014 while conducting research on children and families fleeing violence.

"Their lives are at risk," she said. "They are being threatened. They don’t feel safe. There is a lack of opportunities. Under those conditions, it is the human spirit to fight to survive, and that is what Salvadorans, Hondurans and Guatemalans are going to continue to do."

3. Smugglers finding new routes to U.S.

In 2015, under pressure from the United States, Mexico increased efforts to detain and deport Central Americans attempting to pass through the country on their way to the United States.

Last year, Mexico apprehended 169,297 migrants from El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala, according to government data.

But there are signs smugglers are finding ways to evade immigration enforcement in southern Mexico and are choosing different routes to reach the U.S. border, said Maureen Meyer, senior associate at the Washington Office on Latin America.

The Rio Grande Valley in south Texas remains the main entry point for Central American migrants, with 62 percent of all apprehensions of unaccompanied children and family members. But the Border Patrol is catching more Central Americans at other points along the U.S.-Mexico border, a sign smuggling routes are shifting.

The Yuma sector in Arizona saw the biggest jump. The Border Patrol there apprehended 1,327 unaccompanied minors and 2,139 family members during the first five months of this fiscal year, up 500 percent from the same period the year before. Other areas with increases: Big Bend sector in Texas, up 361 percent; El Paso, up 441 percent; and El Centro in California, up 118 percent.

"I think it was only a matter of time before you saw the smugglers figure out which routes you could take," Meyer said.

4. Obama administration gearing up for another surge

President Barack Obama's administration has made it clear the U.S. could see another big wave of Central American migrants.

The president's fiscal year 2017 budget asks Congress for up to $23 million

to give CBP the flexibility to respond to another significant surge in unaccompanied children, "to ensure we can respond," Kerlikowske told House lawmakers in March.

The budget also asks for $12.5 million to care for unaccompanied children and families while they are temporarily in CBP custody, creating a baseline of 75,000 unaccompanied children, up from the current 58,000.

Kerlikowske said CBP, working with other agencies, is now better prepared to respond to another possible surge.

CBP has opened a center in McAllen, a city in the Rio Grande Valley, that's capable of processing up to 1,200 unaccompanied children and family members. In 2014, unaccompanied children and family members apprehended by the Border Patrol were processed at the station in McAllen, which became overwhelmed by the large numbers.

"We just have many more significant resources there than we had in the past," he said.

The Administration for Children and Families at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has also designated two facilities to temporarily hold unaccompanied children caught by the Border Patrol in case there is another surge, said Andrea Helling, a spokeswoman.

The two reserve facilities are Holloman Air Force Base in Alamogordo, N.M., with 650 available beds, and the Homestead Job Corps facility outside Miami, Fla., with 800 beds.

5. Another surge could arrive in middle of presidential race

If there is another big wave, it could hit just as the presidential race is swinging into high gear, with the Republican and Democratic nominating conventions just around the corner in late July.

Large numbers of Central American migrants could galvanize the "Trump" base of the Republican party that considers immigration the key issue facing the country, said Louis DeSipio, a political science professor at the University of California-Irvine. Donald Trump, the GOP front-runner, has campaigned to build a "great" wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and to deport all undocumented immigrants.

"To the extent there is another surge, that particular element of the Republican base will be more animated, particularly if there is a Trump candidacy," DeSipio said.

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Another big wave could also highlight the differences on immigration between the two parties in the general election, he added.

"The Democrats would likely focus on the humanitarian concerns associated with that migration, and the Republicans, whether it's (Texas) Senator (Ted) Cruz or Mr. Trump, would likely highlight evidence of sort of a failed immigration policy," he said.