By many metrics, the economy is cruising. Unemployment remains near record lows, jobs have been growing for more than 100 straight months, and even wages are rising.

Yet there are signs of distress, and not just in the volatility on Wall Street.

An increasing number of borrowers are skipping their car loans, according to a recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

In late 2018, 5.4% of Texans were seriously delinquent on auto debt, meaning they were at least 90 days late on payments. That share was almost twice as high as before the recession, which led to a big spike in problem loans. Delinquencies declined for almost five years, but they’re climbing again and aren’t far from the recession peak.

In Dallas County, the numbers are worse, with 6.6% of borrowers at least 90 days late on payments. That’s the highest share among the five large Texas counties in the study.

“It’s clear there’s something going on,” said Emily Ryder Perlmeter, a community development adviser for the Dallas Fed and one of the report’s authors. “The economy may not be working as well for everyone.”

Does the data suggest too many people are too close to the financial edge and overextending for a big truck or SUV? Or is it a warning of broader trouble ahead, potentially “a weather vane for the economy as a whole,” as the report said?

“It could very well be both,” said Michael Carroll, an economist at the University of North Texas.

Many consumers put a priority on paying car loans because vehicles are crucial to getting to work and managing family life. While auto loan delinquencies are rising nationwide, the problem is worse in Texas, where car-and-truck culture is even stronger, Perlmeter said.

Maybe the reason isn’t complicated, not with the average car loan in Texas reaching $23,515 last year.

“The reality is we have too many low-paying jobs,” said Woody Widrow, executive director of Raise Texas, a nonprofit group that supports anti-poverty policies. “Just because we have a low unemployment rate doesn’t mean that people have enough money to pay for the things they need.”

In 2017, almost 27% of jobs in the state paid less than $24,300 a year, the poverty threshold for a family of four, according to the Prosperity Now Scorecard. That share was higher than the U.S. average and ranked 37th among the states.

A broader measure of credit distress has been rising, too. Last year, 20.9% of Texas consumers had at least one credit account 90 days or more past due, said Prosperity Now. That was 1 point higher than two years earlier and the highest among the 10 largest states.

How does that fit into the good news about job growth and record low unemployment? The gap between the haves and have-nots hasn’t gone away.

“Across Texas, a lot of prosperity isn’t being shared,” Widrow said.

Some auto loan problems stem from the 2016 oil bust, Perlmeter said. Field workers who bought expensive trucks were likely to have late payments if they were laid off. Such an impact was evident in El Paso County, where median household incomes are relatively low — and the average car loan is higher than in the other counties in the Dallas Fed study.

High debt, lower incomes and an economic hit are a bad combination. El Paso’s delinquency rate on auto loans almost doubled from 2014 to 2018, the report said, and has surpassed the peak of the recession.

Another factor behind the growth in problem loans: an increase in subprime borrowers.

After the recession, lenders tightened requirements on many kinds of credit, especially mortgages. And the share of subprime auto loans (defined as having an Equifax Risk Score of 619 and below) has declined.

In 2006, 35% of auto loan volume in Texas went to subprime borrowers, according to the Dallas Fed. Last year, that share was 29%.

But over the same time, the volume of auto loans in Texas soared by $47.5 billion, after adjusting for inflation. So there are more subprime loans even if the share is lower.

A similar story has played out nationally. At the end of 2010, the rate of auto loan delinquencies peaked. But at the end of last year, over 7 million Americans had loans at least 90 days late — over 1 million more than during the recession, according to a report from the New York Fed.

“There are now more subprime auto loan borrowers than ever, and thus a larger group of borrowers at high risk of delinquency,” the New York Fed wrote.

Fewer than 43% of Texans have prime credit, which ranks 47th among the states. And they’re paying more to borrow for vehicles that cost more than ever. Last May, the average new vehicle price in the U.S. topped $37,000, excluding incentives, according to Kelly Blue Book.

One response has been to stretch out payments. In early 2019, about one-third of auto loans lasted longer than six years, The Wall Street Journal reported this month. One borrower quoted in the story has a six-year loan on a Honda Accord for over $500 a month.

The headline summed up the issue: “America’s Middle Class Can’t Afford Its Cars.”

Consider another data point from last year’s report on U.S. households by the Federal Reserve Board. While more Americans are living comfortably or OK, almost 40% said they couldn’t cover an emergency expense of $400.

They’d have to borrow money, sell something or put the bill on a credit card and pay it off. That doesn’t bode well for car loans.

“If you haven’t saved for a shock, you’re probably gonna delay the payment,” Perlmeter said.

Which begs the question: Are we ready for future shocks?