UPDATE - Column: Why Scott Walker is out The magic is gone: lackluster debate performance, policy flip-flops disenchanted GOP voters.

Jill Lawrence | USA TODAY

Just hours after this column was first published, The New York Times reported that Scott Walker will bow out of the race at a press conference on Monday evening.

Less than two months ago, Scott Walker was musing about Marco Rubio as his vice presidential pick. Now he’s missing in action — at rock bottom in polls, left out of news stories and talk-show lineups, and increasingly hard-pressed to convince donors that his own White House candidacy can be saved.

In a way this is vindication for Democrats and unions. Clearly an identity as organized labor’s enemy number one is not enough to carry a campaign. On the other hand, Walker was elected governor of Wisconsin, survived a recall and won reelection in the span of four years. It’s beyond ironic that Republicans are now doing what Democrats and unions failed at three times. It’s also slightly tragic for Democrats, because it would have been easy to make a general-election case against Walker.

The puzzle is that from a GOP standpoint, Walker seemed to have it all: executive experience, appeal to the business and religious wings of his party, an iconic conservative record in a blue state, and a book and political action committee with one-word names meant to speak volumes: “Unintimidated.” The man even lived in Iowa for several years as a child.

Yet after the first Republican debate on Aug. 6, Walker plunged into single digits and out of first place in Iowa, the leadoff state in the nomination race. He barely registers in New Hampshire (where he was at 24% in April) or nationally (down from the high teens earlier this year). After a lackluster performance at the second debate, Walker fell to less than one-half of 1% in a CNN/ORC poll — putting him in the company of cellar-dwellers like Jim Gilmore and George Pataki. He wouldn’t even make an undercard debate with those numbers.

The extent of Walker’s slide cannot be entirely chalked up to populist jonesing for an “outsider.” There are numerous senators and governors ahead of him in the Real Clear Politics averages of state and national polls. And it’s not like Walker’s bravura narrative about turning Wisconsin into an anti-union bastion, enduring protesters and threats with the help of prayer, has vanished. In fact he recently took his union-busting plans national, proposing to eliminate federal employee unions and the National Labor Relations Board.

But the magic is gone. Fiscal conservatives were not amused when he approved $220 million in state funds for a new sports stadium. He has whipsawed on immigration policy and other issues. And then there’s his bargain-shopper-at-Kohl’s persona. Is it too small and low-key for a president? Is he Jimmy Carter in a sweater, turning down the thermostat?

Put Walker on a debate stage with nine or 10 other GOP White House hopefuls and he is not a commanding presence. The most objective measure is time speaking. The CNN debate was three interminable hours long and Walker spoke for less than nine minutes. That was the shortest time of the 11 candidates onstage. Donald Trump, the top talker, spoke for nearly 19 minutes.

Some of the discrepancy arose from how many questions a candidate was asked, but that didn’t stop others from piling up the time. Walker jumped in several times but somehow his minutes never added up or struck home. He mostly gave short, generic answers sprinkled with Ronald Reagan’s name. He actually was the first to mention Trump’s four bankruptcies — but Carly Fiorina did it better. He didn’t even mention his new anti-union push.

These crowded GOP debates are merciless crucibles. Can you think on your feet? Can you bust your way into the conversation? Are you dynamic? Focused? Punchy? Disciplined enough to weave your message into your answers? Spontaneous enough to make a joke at the right moment? There are several Republican candidates with big personalities who are good at all this. Walker is not one of them.

Some of the superior debaters have never run a state or even held elective office, and their skills wouldn’t necessarily translate into being a successful president or governor. But these Darwinian tests do have their uses. They are a window on personalities and how candidates would relate to the country. They also are indicators of whether a candidate would be an effective persuader in chief.

Walker is now focusing narrowly on Iowa and trying to rekindle excitement on the right pledging to “wreak havoc” in Washington (as if we don’t have enough already). But half the candidates in the GOP race are part of the wreak-havoc set, and some of them are already proving their mettle (talking to you, Ted “shut-down-the-government” Cruz).

That’s one problem for Walker. Another is the distinct possibility that GOP voters, at least in later, larger primary states, will bypass all of them in favor of a nominee who won’t terrify moderates and will try to make the government work.

Jill Lawrence is a syndicated columnist and author of the Brookings Institution's Profiles in Negotiation series. Follow her on Twitter @jilldlawrence.

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