©AP / Andrew Harnik

President Trump’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear deal, means little for the fate of the agreement itself. For now, all other parties are set to move forward with the deal. It does, however, send a strong message about America’s standing within the international community.

The Trump Administration has long considered Iran’s foreign policy agenda to be in violation of the spirit of the agreement. Currently, Iranian leaders lend their support to regimes hostile to American interests in Syria, Yemen, Palestine, and Lebanon. As a consequence, President Trump has warned Tehran that he would force them back to the negotiating table.

“The United States no longer makes empty threats.” For President Trump, these words were the key takeaway from his remarks Tuesday at the White House.

In exchange for strict limitations on Iran’s atomic energy program, the nuclear deal has provided billions of dollars in sanctions relief to date. From the time of its signing in 2015 until the end of last year, the JCPOA has put the Iranian rial on course toward long-term stabilization. At the same time, Tehran has entered into several multi-billion-dollar foreign partnerships to modernize their aging commercial aircraft and natural gas infrastructure.

Following Tuesday’s executive order, the United States has now snapped back economic sanctions on Iranian industry. As well, secondary sanctions have been imposed on third-party firms trading with Iran. As a result, European multinationals such as Airbus and Shell are now in the crosshairs of the US Treasury Department.

This comes despite independent investigations finding Iran in full compliance with the terms of the agreement. By all accounts, the deal is working exactly as intended. The International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, has repeatedly found that Iran’s heavy water reactors in Arak and Natanz are no longer enriching weapons-grade uranium.

The Iranian government must now race to restabilize its currency, as the rial has again taken a nosedive to record lows. Increasingly, Iranian citizens are beginning to use US dollars to make everyday transactions. Unless Tehran can harden their currency or find a way to prevent further de-rialization, the country will descend into crisis.

If they didn’t already, hardliners in Iran now view their president as a lame duck, willing to lose face at the hands of American enemies. This will likely hurt Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s chances in the 2021 presidential election, where conservatives eager for retaliation will push to remove him from power. If successful, the US and its allies will lose the only moderate reformer that Iran has seen in decades.

On Tuesday, President Rouhani signaled that Tehran is willing to keep the agreement alive — regardless of the United States’ support. Likewise, French President Emmanuel Macron and other European allies have been outspoken about their support for the deal. Since the agreement is a not a formal treaty, it can be kept intact regardless of whether any single party decides to renege on their commitments.

If Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and Germany also decide to honour their side of the agreement, then it is almost certain that the JCPOA will survive. That is, as long as Tehran’s central bank can stave off an impending currency crisis.

If so, Trump’s announcement, which will go down as one of his defining foreign policy landmarks, will signify something else. That if the United States turns their back to the world, the rest of the world can endure it.

Liam Hunt is a Toronto-based freelance writer and published author on U.S. nuclear diplomacy. You can find more of his work here. Or follow him on Twitter @lfahunt.