Jeb Bush cancels Iowa TV buy, shifts money to ground game

Jennifer Jacobs | The Des Moines Register

DES MOINES — Jeb Bush's campaign is canceling its Iowa television advertising buy and shifting money to double staff on the ground in January, the final month before the high-stakes Iowa caucuses.

The news will raise questions about whether the former Florida governor might pull out of Iowa given his fifth-place status here, with just 6% support of likely GOP caucusgoers.

That's not the case, Bush campaign manager Danny Diaz told The Des Moines Register.

The number of Iowa paid staffers who make personal contact with voters will be boosted from 11 to more than 20, including its Hispanic outreach director, he said.

Bush returns to campaign here Jan. 11-13 with stops in Iowa City, Grinnell, Des Moines and Ankeny.

The larger context is that Team Bush is making similar shifts from TV ads to its ground game in other early states, too. In January, they'll deploy 60 staffers from the Miami headquarters to the early states, including about 10 to Iowa.

And Bush's presence will still be prominent on voters' TV screens: A pro-Bush super PAC has reserved more than $19 million in ads across the first three states in coming days.

The Bush campaign itself has spent tens of millions on television ads to date, yet his candidacy has failed to catch on, something rival Donald Trump has mocked him for.

Diaz said the campaign is removing $3 million in previously reserved TV time: an Iowa buy of about $1 million and a January buy in South Carolina of about $2 million. It's instead increasing direct voter contact with a total of 60 additional staffers.

Bush's aides acknowledged that Iowa can be a very tough state for mainstream GOP candidates. The three Republicans who have consistently led polls here since late summer, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump and Ben Carson, are outsider Tea Party candidates.

"We don't believe winning in Iowa is a necessary ingredient to winning the nomination, but we're working for a strong finish," said Iowa native David Kochel, Bush's senior strategist.

To average Iowa television viewers, the fact that the Bush campaign won't be airing $1 million in ads won't make much difference. Bush will still be all over their television screens thanks to the pro-Bush Right to Rise USA political action committee, which has a new TV ad in Iowa that criticizes rival candidate Marco Rubio. A total of $3.9 million in advertising supporting Bush is still reserved in Iowa, ad tracking records show.

Before the campaign began, Bush helped Right to Rise amass a record-breaking war chest. The PAC has spent nearly $40 million on TV ads, without much impact in the polls.

In Iowa Tuesday night, Trump said Bush "wasted $40 million." Trump, who has led in national polls without any paid advertising, said he intends to start forking over about $2 million a week on television advertising in three early voting states, including Iowa. He doesn't think he needs to spend money on TV ads, Trump told reporters before his Council Bluffs rally, but "I don't want to take any chances."

The New York businessman's decision comes after Ted Cruz, a religious conservative U.S. senator from Texas, scored an unprecedented 21-point leap in polling in Iowa to claim the front-runner slot. Trump trailed Cruz by 10 points in The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics early December Iowa Poll.

Kochel said the Bush campaign's changes will allow it to direct substantially more resources to persuading voters via digital ads, mail pieces, phone calls and conservative talk radio.

In New Hampshire, a state that's much more friendly to mainstream Republican candidates, the campaign will remain on TV through the primary, set for a week after Iowa's Feb. 1 caucuses. In January, about 20 more campaign staffers will be deployed there, beefing up the team to about 40, Kochel said.

The South Carolina and Nevada staffs will also increase by 10 each, he said.

"This will give Jeb by far the largest paid ground operation in the first four states," Kochel said.