In retrospect, it was wearily predictable that his conciliatory talk with President Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine would be followed by another escalation. Conversely, now that the heat is back on, Mr Putin's next move will probably be emollient. And, sure enough, within hours of the destruction of the Ilyushin-76 yesterday, Russia had offered to resume negotiations over the price of gas supplies. Earlier, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the Ukrainian prime minister, had warned his compatriots to prepare for a Russian energy embargo starting as soon as tomorrow. Now, Ukraine's government can hope for a reprieve. Or can it?