Donald Trump has just signalled that new and old enemies of the Persian people are aligning like no time in history. Iran should be very worried indeed.

Many of Donald Trump’s critics claim he is unpredictable. In researching my article last year predicting Trump’s election win, I found the opposite to be true: Trump is relatively easy to predict if only one looks at what he says and understands that he believes what he says, contradictions and all.

Trump’s self-belief means we can assume that he will try to implement his policies as stated. And of his many past comments that disturb me, it is his views on nuclear weapons that I find most frightening. “What is the point of having nuclear weapons if you don’t use them?” he is quoted as saying.

Trump himself has stated that he not only believes that nuclear weapons could be used, but that they should be used. Small hands can still press a big red button.

I am not trying to suggest that I think Trump believes in nuclear armageddon. Even he would see the futility of a full scale nuclear clash. But what of the relatively small scale tactical nuclear weapons, if used against a commonly-perceived hostile state that is itself wishing to expand its nuclear technology? Could Trump, and those around him, rationalise the use of a small tactical weapon to wipe out an adversary’s nuclear facility, particularly if it were underground?

The US’s largest conventional weapon, the so-called “Mother of All Bombs”, recently failed to destroy cave complexes in Afghanistan. Could Trump be telling himself that a nuclear bomb is the only option left to his administration?

If you accept that Trump may be predisposed to using nuclear weapons, certainly more freely than any recent US leader, the obvious next question is against whom these weapons shall be used. Enter the two most likely suspects: North Korea and Iran.

Trump: 'You always have to be concerned about nuclear war'

Bombing North Korea has the risk of really upsetting the hermit kingdom’s neighbours. Both China and South Korea, for differing reasons, would react very negatively should there be an attack on Kim number three’s playground. Besides, Trump has clearly signalled that North Korea is China’s problem.

Iran, on the other hand, is bereft of neighbouring friends.

People in the West sometimes forget that Iran, while Islamic, is not Arab. Iran is Persian, and Arab-Persian antipathy pre-dates the arrival of Islam. It doesn’t take Egyptian Arabs long to remember the brutality of the ancient Persian kings, let alone look to the Islamic Shia and Sunni split.

Yet for a short period following the discovery of oil, Egypt and Iran did align against the Wahhabist Saudi family when the Saudis’ new force grew along with their petro-dollars. In the great tradition of monarchies marrying for alliances, the Shah of Iran married the sister of the last King of Egypt, King Farouk. Waiting for a post-mortem return to Persia, the Shah rests even today next to his old friend Farouk in side by side Cairo mosques.

Following the Islamic Revolution in Iran, the age-old Persian-Arab enmity returned. Iran sought to destabilise the secular Egyptian governments of Anwar Sadat and Hosni Mubarak by financing the Muslim Brotherhood. Iran finally gained a puppet in Cairo with the election of Islamist Mohamed Morsi.

Iran’s then president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was one of the first foreign leaders to visit Morsi in Cairo, sending a chill down the spines of both Israel and Saudi Arabia. Neither the Wahhabist nor the Jewish State would see an Egypt-Iran rapprochement as in their interests. It had to be thwarted.

No surprise then, when the Saudis and Israelis both lobbied the Americans for an end to Morsi resulting in a “popular revolution” in Egypt, the ousting of Morsi and the election of a new secular general, Abd El-Fattah El-Sisi, who quickly attempted a gift of disputed islands to Saudi Arabia.

So the Israeli and Saudi governments agreed on who should rule Egypt. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are growing closer. The Americans sell the Saudi regime weapons as the Saudi Arabians are fighting Iran in a proxy war in Yemen.

Iran and Saudi fight an economic war over oil supply and price. Iran needs an oil price north of $70 (£55) a barrel to balance their budget. Saudi will only agree to constricting supply and rise prices if the Iranians agree to their sanctions level output, limiting their revenue. Neither agree, so Opec is in stalemate. Oh my, the coincidences.

In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour Show all 39 1 /39 In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 20 May 2017 US President Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud arriving for a reception ahead of a banquet at Murabba Palace in Riyadh Getty Images In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 20 May 2017 US President Donald Trump, accompanied by First Lady Melania Trump, and Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud being welcomed at Murabba Palace in Riyadh Getty Images In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 20 May 2017 US President Donald J. Trump with King of Saudi Arabia Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud during a welcome ceremony with traditional sword dancers at Murabba Palace, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia EPA In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 20 May 2017 King of Saudi Arabia Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud with US President Donald J. Trump and wife Melania during a welcome ceremony at Murabba Palace, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia EPA In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 20 May 2017 US President Donald Trump adjusts the Collar of Abdulaziz Al Saud Medal, after it was bestowed upon him by Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud at the Royal Court in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Reuters In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 20 May 2017 Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud presents U.S. President Donald Trump with the Collar of Abdulaziz Al Saud Medal at the Royal Court in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Reuters In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 21 May 2017 Palestinians print posters depicting US President Donald Trump in preparations for his planned visit, in the West Bank town of Bethlehem Reuters In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 21 May 2017 US President Donald Trump accompanied by first lady Melania Trump, his daughter Ivanka Trump and her husband White House senior advisor Jared Kushner, before delivering his remarks to the Arab Islamic American Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Reuters In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 21 May 2017 US President Donald Trump looks on as U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef exchange a memorandum of understanding Reuters In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 21 May 2017 First Lady Melania Trump shares a laugh with a child during a visit to the American International School in the Saudi capital Riyadh Getty Images In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 21 May 2017 US President Donald Trump holds a bilateral meeting with Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa AP In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 Israeli soldiers rest during preparations ahead of President Trump's landing in Tel Aviv, Israel Getty Images In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 First Lady Melania Trump makes her way to board Air Force One in Riyadh as she heads with her husband the US President to Israel Getty Images In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 US President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump board Air Force One for Israel, the next stop in Trump's international tour, at King Khalid International Airport AP In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 Israeli soldiers wait for the arrival ceremony of US President Donald Trump at Ben Gurion airport near Tel Aviv, Israel AP In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 US President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrive aboard Air Force One at Ben Gurion International Airport in Lod near Tel Aviv, Israel Reuters In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 US President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump disembark Air Force One on arrival at Ben Gurion International Airport AP In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 US President Donald J. Trump and his wife, US First Lady Melania Trump are welcomed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu upon arrival at Ben Gurion Airport, in Lod outside Tel Aviv, Israel EPA In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sit during welcome ceremony in Tel Aviv AP In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 US First Lady Melania Trump chats wife Sara Netanyahu as US President Donald Trump chats to Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a welcoming ceremony to welcome Trump at Ben Gurion International Airport Reuters In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 US President Donald Trump delivers a speech upon his arrival at Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv Getty Images In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 US President Donald Trump gestures during a press conference with Israel's President at the President's Residence in Jerusalem Getty Images In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 US President Donald Trump watches as First Lady Melania Trump signs the guest book at the President's Residence in Jerusalem Getty Images In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 US President Donald Trump walks with first lady Melania Trump in Jerusalem's Old City Reuters In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 US President Donald Trump visits the Western Wall, the holiest site where Jews can pray, in Jerusalems Old City Getty Images In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 US President Donald Trump stands next to Rabbi Shmuel Rabinowitz at the plaza in front of the Western Wall, Judaism's holiest prayer site, in Jerusalem's Old City Reuters In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and White House senior advisor Jared Kushner leave notes at the Western Wall in Jerusalem Reuters In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 US First Lady Melania Trump touches the Western Wall, Judaism's holiest prayer site, in Jerusalem's Old City EPA In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 Ivanka Trump, assistant and daughter of US President Donald J. Trump, touches the Western Wall, Judaism's holiest prayer site, in Jerusalem's Old City EPA In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 22 May 2017 President Donald Trump visits the Western Wall AP In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 24 May 2017 US President Donald J. Trump arrives in a vehicle to Saint Damaso's Court for a private audience with Pope Francis in Vatican City EPA In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 24 May 2017 Pope Francis walks past Ivanka Trump and First Lady Melania Trump on the occasion of the private audience with President Donald Trump, at the Vatican AP In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 24 May 2017 Pope Francis exchanges gifts with US President Donald Trump during a private audience at the Vatican Getty Images In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 24 May 2017 Pope Francis meets US President Donald Trump and his wife Melania during a private audience at the Vatican Reuters In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 24 May 2017 Pope Francis with US President Donald J. Trump EPA In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 24 May 2017 Pope Francis gets into is car after meeting with US President Donald Trump AP In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 24 May 2017 President Donald Trump and his wife Melania look at the frescoed ceilings during their visit to the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican L'Osservatore Romano/Pool Photo via AP In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 24 May 2017 US President Donald Trump security vehicles are seen in front of Air Force One before take off from Leonardo da Vinci-Fiumicino Airport in Rome, Italy Reuters In pictures: President Donald Trump on tour 24 May 2017 US President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump wave to reporters before boarding the Air Force One to Brussels, at the end of a 2-day visit to Italy including a meeting with Pope Francis at the Vatican, at Rome's Fiumicino international airport AP

And if Trump were minded to drop a small tactical nuke to wipe out Iran’s nuclear facility, when would he do it? That depends. Does he need “Jim-Bob” in southern Arkansas to vote for the Republicans in the 2018 mid-terms, or vote for Trump in the 2020 Primaries? I think Iran has a little over two years.

I’ve travelled to both Iran and North Korea. I liked Iran. I found it a safe and friendly country; the biggest risk I experienced was either being swamped by hospitality or drowned in sweet tea. But today Iran is boxed in economically, militarily and politically. It has no friends left. Trump could drop a small nuke there and very few neighbours would bat an eyelid. Many would quietly applaud.

The nation has no allies. To prevent an attack it will likely need to either transparently drop its own nuclear programme or persuade Putin to step in on its behalf. Iran has reasons to be very worried indeed.