Finding No. 6831 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends May 21/22 & 28/29, 2016 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,099 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

If a Federal Election were held now the Election would be too close to call.



Primary support for the L-NP is 37.5% (up 1%) with ALP at 32.5% (down 0.5%). Support for the Greens is down 2.5% to 13%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 5% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party is 1% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 0% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others are at 11% (up 1.5%).

South Australia Voting Intention – NXT now outpolling the ALP

In South Australia the rise of the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) means several seats are likely to be three-way contests between the Liberals (31%), NXT (26.5%) and the ALP (25%) with support for the Greens (8.5%) and Independent/ Others (9%). In South Australia a total of 44% (up 2.5%) of electors now support a minor party rather than the Liberals or ALP.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 2.5pts this week to 102 with 40.5% (down 2%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 38.5% (up 0.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, May 21/22 & 28/29, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,099 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows women heavily favouring the ALP and men slightly in favour of the L-NP. Men: L-NP 51.5% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 48.5% (down 0.5%); Women: ALP 53.5% (down 3%) cf. L-NP 46.5% (up 3%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads easily with electors under 35: 18-24yr olds (ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5%), and 25-34yr olds (ALP 64.5% cf. L-NP 35.5%). However the L-NP narrowly leads the 35-49yr olds (L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%) and 50-64yr olds (L-NP 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5%) and the L-NP leads easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5%).

Analysis by States

The L-NP now holds a two-party preferred lead in two Australian States. The L-NP leads in New South Wales: L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5% and Queensland: LNP 52% cf. ALP 48%. The ALP leads in Tasmania: ALP 63% cf. L-NP 37%, Victoria: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%, South Australia: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% and narrowly leads in Western Australia: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s Newspoll does not measure or reference the PUP or NXT vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the ALP (51.5%) cf. L-NP (48.5%) for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says: