This post was co-authored with Chelsea Boyd

The Food and Drug Administration has spoken, and its words have, once again, ruffled many feathers. Coinciding with the deadline for companies to lay out their plans to prevent youth access to e-cigarettes, the agency has announced new regulatory strategies that are sure to not only make it more difficult for young people to access e-cigarettes, but for adults who benefit from vaping to access them as well.

More surprising than the FDA’s paradoxical strategy of preventing teen smoking by banning not combustible cigarettes, but their distant cousins, e-cigarettes, is that the biggest support for establishing barriers to accessing e-cigarettes seems to come from the tobacco industry itself.

Going above and beyond the FDA’s proposals, both Altria and JUUL are self-restricting flavor sales, creating more — not fewer — barriers to purchasing their products. And both companies now publicly support a 21-to-purchase mandate. Unfortunately, these barriers extend beyond restricting underage access and will no doubt affect adult smokers seeking access to reduced-risk products.

To say there are no benefits to self-regulation by e-cigarette companies would be misguided. Perhaps the biggest benefit is to increase the credibility of these companies in an industry where it has historically been lacking. Proposals to decrease underage use of their product show that these companies are committed to improving the lives of smokers. Going above and beyond the FDA’s regulations also allows them to demonstrate that they take underage use seriously.

Yet regulation, whether imposed by the government or as part of a business plan, comes at a price. This is particularly true in the field of public health. In other health areas, the FDA is beginning to recognize that it needs to balance regulatory prudence with the risks of delaying innovation. For example, by decreasing red tape in medical product development, the FDA aims to help people access novel treatments for conditions that are notoriously difficult to treat. Unfortunately, this mindset has not expanded to smoking.

Good policy, whether imposed by government or voluntarily adopted by private actors, should not help one group while harming another. Perhaps the question that should be asked, then, is not whether these new FDA regulations and self-imposed restrictions will decrease underage use of e-cigarettes, but whether they decrease underage use enough to offset the harm caused by creating barriers to access for adult smokers.

The FDA’s new point-of-sale policy restricts sales of flavored products (not including tobacco flavors or menthol/mint flavors) to either specialty, age-restricted, in-person locations or to online retailers with heightened age-verification systems. JUUL, Reynolds and Altria have also included parts of this strategy in their proposed self-regulations, sometimes going even further by limiting sales of flavored products to their company websites.

To many people, these measures may not seem like a significant barrier to purchasing e-cigarettes, but in fact, online retail is a luxury that many cannot access. Heightened online age-verification processes are likely to require most of the following: a credit or debit card, a Social Security number, a government-issued ID, a cellphone to complete two-factor authorization, and a physical address that matches the user’s billing address. According to a 2017 Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. survey, one in four U.S. households are unbanked or underbanked, which is an indicator of not having a debit or credit card. That factor alone excludes a quarter of the population, including many adults, from purchasing online. It’s also important to note that the demographic characteristics of people who lack the items required to make online purchases are also the characteristics most associated with smoking.

Additionally, it’s likely that these new point-of-sale restrictions won’t have much of an effect at all on the target demographic — those who are underage. According to a 2017 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study, of the 9 percent of high school students who currently use electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), only 13 percent reported purchasing the device for themselves from a store. This suggests that 87 percent of underage users won’t be deterred by prohibitive measures to move sales to specialty stores or online. Moreover, Reynolds estimates that only 20 percent of its VUSE sales happen online, indicating that more than three-quarters of users — consisting mainly of adults — purchase products in brick-and-mortar retail locations.

Existing enforcement techniques, if properly applied at the point of sale, could have a bigger impact on youth access. Interestingly, a recent analysis by Baker White of FDA inspection reports suggests that the agency’s existing approaches to prevent youth access may be lacking — meaning that there is much room for improvement. Overall, selling to minors is extremely low-risk for stores. The likelihood of a store receiving a fine for violation of the minimum age of sale is once for every 36.7 years of operation, the financial risk is about 2 cents per day, and the risk of receiving a no sales order (the most severe consequence) is 1 for every 2,825 years of operation. Furthermore, for every $279 the FDA receives in fines, it spends over $11,800. With odds like those, it’s no wonder some stores are willing to sell to minors: Their risk is minimal.

Eliminating access to flavored products is the other arm of the FDA’s restrictions. Many people have suggested that flavors are designed to appeal to youth, yet fewer talk about the proportion of adults who use flavored e-cigarettes. In reality, flavors are an important factor for adults who switch from combustible cigarettes to e-cigarettes. A 2018 survey of 20,676 US adults who frequently use e-cigarettes showed that “since 2013, fruit-flavored e-liquids have replaced tobacco-flavored e-liquids as the most popular flavors with which participants had initiated e-cigarette use.” By relegating flavored products to specialty retailers and online sales, the FDA has forced adult smokers, who may switch from combustible cigarettes to e-cigarettes, to go out of their way to initiate use.

It remains to be seen if new regulations, either self- or FDA-imposed, will decrease underage use. However, we already know who is most at risk for negative outcomes from these new regulations: people who are geographically disadvantaged (for instance, people who live far away from adult-only retailers), people who might not have credit to go through an online retailer, and people who rely on new flavors as an incentive to stay away from combustible cigarettes. It’s not surprising or ironic that these are also the people who are most at risk for using combustible cigarettes in the first place.

Given the likelihood that the new way of doing business will have minimal positive effects on youth use but negative effects on adult access, we must question what the benefits of these policies are. Fortunately, we know the answer already: The FDA gets political capital and regulatory clout; industry gets credibility; governments get more excise tax revenue from cigarette sales. And smokers get left behind.

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