Poland’s cumulative solar power capacity as envisioned by the government’s Polish Energy Policy 2040 and National Plan for Energy and Climate 2030 is 20.2 GW and 15.7 GW by 2040. However, in 2019 alone, independent research group IEO expects Poland to add 1 GW to reach a total of 1.5 GW.

IEO Report Guides For Cumulative Installed PV Capacity Of Poland To Reach 2.5 GW By 2020-End & Reach Up To 7.8 GW By 2025

With the addition of 235 MW new solar PV capacity in 2018, Poland had around 500 MW of cumulative number at the end of the year and has exceeded 700 MW of total installed PV by May 2019. In 2019, Instytut Energetyki Odnawialnej (IEO), an independent research group in Poland, expects new PV installations to grow to 1 GW, taking the cumulative to 1.5 GW at the end of the year.

In its annual report, Photovoltaic Market in Poland 2019, IEO expects new installations to significantly increase until the end of June 2019 as capacities awarded during the second renewable energy auction are scheduled to come online.

There have been 3 renewable energy auctions in the country so far held in 2016, 2017 and 2018 that awarded 990 projects with a total capacity of close to 900 MW. For the annual auction scheduled for Q4/2019, IEO says 750 MW is to be offered to interested bidders. This capacity needs to come online within 2 years of the award. All installations can have capacities of up to 1 MW.

Considering the decrease in cost of project preparation, construction and connection to the 1 MW farm network from PLN 3.8 million (1.02 million) in 2016 to PLN 2.8 million (0.75 million) in 2018, the IEO estimates total investment in solar farms from 2016 to 2019 to come to a total of PLN 5 billion ($1.34 billion).

The Polish Energy Policy 2040 (PEP 2040) provides the most optimistic scenario for the development of the PV sector expecting total capacity to reach 20.2 GW by 2040, while the National Plan for Energy and Climate 2030 (KPEiK 2020) pegs the number at 15.7 GW by 2040.

In April 2019, Polish electric utility Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne reported cumulative solar capacity of the country till March 2019 reached 603 MW, after 131.6 MW was added during the first quarter. The government is aiming to add 200 MW annually (see Poland Installed 131.6 MW New Solar In Q1/2019).

SolarPower Europe in its Global Market Outlook said Polish PV capacity till 2018 was 464 MW and by 2023 it might go up to 3,139 MW in its medium scenario (see SolarPower Europe: 800 GW New PV By 2023).