PRISTINA, Kosovo — It's Kosovo's "Guns & Roses" election.

Ex-guerrillas who fought Serb repression of Kosovo's ethnic Albanian majority in the 1990s and then formed rival political parties have come together in a coalition to contest Sunday's parliamentary election. Opposing them is another new alliance, led by the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), which has its roots in a campaign of passive resistance to rule from Belgrade.

In the outgoing government, the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), the biggest political force to emerge from the guerrilla movement, shared power with the LDK. But their administration collapsed over failures to implement measures such as a border demarcation deal with Montenegro.

The parties say they have formed their new alliances because a 2014 Constitutional Court decision gave important advantages to pre-election coalitions in establishing a government. But analysts say ex-commanders of the Kosovo Liberation Army have another reason for all wanting to be in power at the same time — a new special court in The Hague may soon indict some of them for crimes against Serbs and political rivals during and immediately after the 1998-1999 war.

“They know from the past that being in power can offer them information and enable them to know things in advance,” said Agron Demi, a policy analyst at the GAP Institute, a Pristina-based think tank. “They can use this knowledge to find a way not to be handcuffed but negotiate the terms of their surrender.”

The new government will not be short of challenges.

Having been in government for the last 10 years, the PDK has additional strong motivation for remaining in power — and keeping out the third force in Kosovo politics, the Self-Determination Movement, known locally as Vetevendosje, which campaigns on a strong anti-corruption platform and is not running as part of a coalition.

“The PDK fears that if Vetevendosje came to power for the first time in coalition with other parties, it might mean that senior members of the PDK would be prosecuted for corruption,” said political analyst Shpend Kursani.

Flute from reality

The new government will not be short of challenges. It will be under pressure from Western nations to continue an EU-sponsored political dialogue with Serbia, from which Kosovo unilaterally declared independence in 2008, and to implement the border deal with Montenegro and an administrative shakeup that ethnic Albanians say would give more power to the Serb minority.

Faced with these problems and others such as widespread corruption and poverty, many politicians have majored on nationalism in the election campaign rather than confront thorny realities.

Ramush Haradinaj, a former guerrilla commander who is the PDK-led coalition's candidate for prime minister, seems to have a flute following him everywhere he goes. He has appeared across the tiny country of 1.8 million with men in traditional highland turbans and mustaches, and the constant refrain of the traditional flute soundtrack before and after his patriotic speeches.

Koha për Fillimin e Ri – VOTO numrin 12!

VOTO Ramush Haradinaj Kryeministër - VOTO numrin 2!#KohapërFillimineRi! pic.twitter.com/rpJBuQLR8W — Ramush Haradinaj (@haradinajramush) June 8, 2017

Haradinaj, a former nightclub bouncer nicknamed Rambo because of his time as a guerrilla commander, has seen his popularity jump this year after he was held for three months in France on a Serbian arrest warrant. Belgrade accused him of multiple war crimes, which he denies. Many Kosovo Albanians thought his detention was unjust and politically motivated.

Since his return in late April, he has made sweeping statements criticizing Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and pledging retaliatory measures against Serbia, including giving Kosovo passports to ethnic Albanians in Serbia’s Preševo Valley. He has also said that if Serbia does not amend its constitution to remove Kosovo from its preamble, Kosovo will change its maps to include territory up to the Serbian city of Niš.

Haradinaj has served as prime minister before. He spent 100 days as premier before resigning in March 2005 to face war crimes charges at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. He was acquitted of all charges but the advent of the new court, known as the Specialist Chambers, means that it is possible he could be tried once more in The Hague.

Another former leader of the Kosovo Liberation Army who is part of the new political alliance, Fatmir Limaj, was twice acquitted of war crimes charges in The Hague and again in Kosovo. He is still on trial for corruption allegedly committed during his time as transport minister but maintains he is innocent.

As a candidate for prime minister this time around, Haradinaj has promised a program that looks highly ambitious, to say the least. He has pledged to establish a Kosovo army, renegotiate the border deal with Montenegro and get the EU to drop visa requirements for Kosovo citizens — a priority of every government since independence — within three months of taking office.

Divided Serbs

While ethnic Albanian parties have banded together, politicians representing Kosovo's Serb minority have been going in the other direction. Some have broken away from the Belgrade-backed Serbian List that took part in the last government. Reports of violence between the factions have alarmed EU election observers.

“I don’t see a stable government after this election that can deal with economic development and combat corruption” — Agron Bajrami, editor of Kosovo's Koha Ditore newspaper

The Serbian List looks likely to win seven of the 10 seats reserved for Serbs in the 120-seat Kosovo parliament and will probably be part of the next government. Serbs have traditionally been part of every governing coalition, partly due to Western pressure. But having seven Serb votes rather than 10 will make it at least a little harder for any new government to implement its policies.

Agron Bajrami, editor in chief of Kosovo's Koha Ditore newspaper, predicted that no coalition would have enough support to push through the tough votes on the border deal and the administrative revamp, which require a two-thirds majority. The EU has made those measures a precondition for lifting visa requirements. A continuing failure to pass them would stoke discontent in one of Europe’s youngest, poorest and more isolated countries.

The last government had to contend with the exodus of more than 100,000 people trying to claim asylum in Western Europe to escape economic misery, parliamentary sessions that were disrupted by opposition MPs setting off tear gas, and weeks of sometimes violent street protests over the border deal and the planned increase in local Serb autonomy.

“I don’t see a stable government after this election that can deal with economic development and combat corruption,” said Bajrami.

“We will have not only an unstable government but a restless society demanding progress. The opposition will use that to their advantage and soon we might end up with a government that is incapable of delivering anything.”