Pre Debate Context

As we approach the Iowa caucus, the Democratic debate stage continues to shrink: last night’s debate featured the smallest list of qualifiers yet. The six Democrats to reach the threshold for qualifying were former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA), Senator Bernie Sanders (VT), Senator Amy Klobuchar (MN), Mayor Pete Buttigieg (IN), and philanthropist Tom Steyer. The list is notably the least diverse group yet, with each candidate being white and only two women appearing on stage. This decrease in diversity comes amidst three candidates announcing their withdrawal: former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Julián Castro, spiritual guide and author Marianne Williamson, and Senator Cory Booker (NJ). Businessman Andrew Yang also didn’t make the cut for the January debate.

Key issues that emerged ahead of the debate included the continuation of the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump and the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. In terms of polling, Biden still remains on top, with progressives Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren following behind. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have stayed within single digits, and Tom Steyer remains between two and three percent. CNN hosted the debate at Drake University in Iowa, an important battleground state for the Democrats. The debate marks the last push for candidates to sway undecided voters as the caucus approaches.

Winners

Elizabeth Warren

Senator Elizabeth Warren’s drop in the polls hasn’t prevented her from being one of the strongest candidates in the debate. On stage, she was able to play to one of her greatest strengths: bringing the heat with her applause-inducing flames.

After a dense discussion of the military and foreign policy, the conversation reached a point many had been waiting since news broke over the weekend that Sanders’ staffers’ scripts had contained points designed to attack Warren. Sanders denied he had ever stated that a woman could not be president. When the discussion returned to Warren, she stood by her assertion and drew attention to the bigger picture in the campaigning: whether people believed a woman could be elected or not. In one of her best lines of the night, Warren described how the men on the stage, “Collectively… have lost ten elections. The only people on this stage who have won every single election that they’ve been in are the women.”

Later in the debate, her remarks on healthcare were somewhat shifty, but she compensated for the ambiguity later while describing her key plan to implement a wealth tax. Arguably, Warren had the best closing statement. She mentioned a long list of issues she wished could have been discussed during the night, from gun violence to childcare to transphobia, all while encouraging voters to remain hopeful. Her poll numbers may have been declining in the past few months, but it’s clear that Elizabeth Warren isn’t going anywhere without a fight.

Amy Klobuchar

Senator Klobuchar’s debate performances typically consist of narrative, midwestern focused anecdotes, and encouragement for voters to take a pragmatic approach to politics. She only floats around 3% in the national polls but her debate performances consistently show us that she’s trying to break above those numbers. Her message for voters is clear: if you’re not for Warren or Sanders’ far-left policies, you’ve got a place with her more moderate campaign. On healthcare and education, Klobuchar offered the centrist take on the subjects. In the end, she got her message across to voters, which could offer her the spike in the support she needs ahead of the caucus.

Honorable Mentions

Bernie Sanders

Coming into the debate, Sanders had two vulnerabilities working against him. First, his place near the top of the polls. While no candidate has been able to sustain a lead over Biden, Sanders has been giving him a run for his money (which, coincidentally, was far less than what Sanders earned in the fourth quarter) by closing the gap between them in New Hampshire.

Second, this weekend’s news about Sanders’ previous remarks to Elizabeth Warren created tension between the candidates that previously hadn’t occurred. This damaged him when the issue came up: he denied making the comment and seemed dismissive of the issue. He tried to pivot to pandering to women, but Warren’s defense of women in politics proved that Bernie couldn’t win the argument. A brief confrontation with Warren about beating incumbent Republicans just made the debate more awkward for Bernie. He managed to bounce back on healthcare, which, combined with his foreign policy and military answers, did strengthen his performance. In the end, Sanders’ performance wasn’t the best we’ve seen, but it also wasn’t his worst.

Here is the testy exchange between Bernie and Warren #DemocraticDebate pic.twitter.com/akQMbAUEEB — Stomp the Bootlickers (@StompBootlicker) January 15, 2020

Joe Biden

Joe Biden’s performance Tuesday can be summarized in one word: fine. Granted, a fine performance compared to the other candidates is Biden at his best. Fortunately, his usual awkward gaffe was absent, making him appear more polished than he had prior to the December debate. His campaign has clearly worked on his answers, but for a frontrunner, he’s underperforming in the debates. He’s missing the energy that candidates like Warren, Sanders, and Klobuchar bring to the table, preventing him from really winning in the debate. In December, a fine performance was enough to secure him a win because we saw an actual improvement, but he’s plateaued since then. Somehow, his lackluster performances haven’t managed to significantly impact his polling numbers since last summer’s notorious attack by Kamala Harris.

Pete Buttigieg

Mayor Pete started off strong in the first half-hour, navigating his way through a dense foreign policy and military discussion and citing his military experience to prove he’s capable of becoming the Commander in Chief. Buttigieg also stood out when criticizing President Trump’s rhetoric and advocating for the Democrats to reclaim the Christian label, but on the other hand, he also had some moments that kept him from reaching the top tier of performers. Specifically, when asked about his past with black voters, Buttigieg’s answers were unconvincing and boiled down to “I’ve hired black people before and they know who I am, so other black people should vote for me.” This just reinforced the mayor’s inability to garner support from a key demographic headed into the caucuses and primaries.

Losers

Tom Steyer

At this point in the debates, Steyer’s lucky to be qualifying. His main issue is that he barely has any substance of his own. The moderators typically got to Steyer last when asking questions, leaving him with only twelve minutes of total speaking time in the debate, but he didn’t make the most of what little time he had. Most of his answers started by stating that he agrees with another candidate, showing his own lack of experience with policy. He awkwardly attempted to tie the Australian fires into a discussion about North Korean nuclear power, which exemplified his inexperience.

“I cannot allow this country to go down the path of climate destruction,” says @TomSteyer. “We cannot put climate in the backseat all the time.”#DemDebate pic.twitter.com/vMWdvKD3AM — LCV – League of Conservation Voters (@LCVoters) January 15, 2020

The only issues he actually seems comfortable speaking on are climate change and impeachment, but climate change isn’t unique to him and impeachment can’t be the basis for a campaign. Without businessman Andrew Yang on stage to support him, Steyer’s non-politician made him feel out of place on stage. His short, watered-down speeches made the debate feel more like a discussion between the five other candidates with Steyer relaying information back to the crowd.

Conclusion

After the debate, one issue is clear with the Democrats: the caucus could be anyone’s game. Although Klobuchar and Steyer have made some honest attempts to increase their numbers, the caucus is likely going to be a showdown between the four frontrunners: Biden, Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg. The rift between the moderates and the progressives kept growing last night as the two wings went head-to-head on their biggest points of contention, education, and healthcare. A long-anticipated divide between Warren and Sanders also opened last night, showing voters that the two will inevitably have to face each other to win over the moderates.

The Iowa caucus will happen on February 3rd, and four days later, the eighth Democratic debate in New Hampshire will follow, another crucial battleground for the election. With the future of the primary still unclear, the caucus will offer Democrats some much-needed clarity at the start of the primary season. Join The New Voice’s political desk on February 7th for another live analysis of the debate.

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