We are pleased to introduce ESPN’s live playoff probabilities. The charts below are a visual representation of each team’s playoff chances through time. They combine ESPN’s live in-game win probabilities with its Football Power Index (FPI) season projections to track a team’s chances to achieve a certain feat (make playoffs, earn No. 1 seed, etc.) over time. We will be cycling through the most interesting projections throughout the day, so check back in to see how your team’s chances have changed.

AFC wild card

ESPN Stats & Information (through 7:30 p.m. ET)

AFC West

ESPN Stats & Information (through 7:30 p.m. ET)

NFC wild card

ESPN Stats & Information (through 7:30 p.m. ET)

How does this work? The playoff probabilities are updated as the games progress based on our live win probability estimates. Live in-game win probability measure a team’s chance to win based on the current game state (score, time remaining, field position, down, to-go distance, team and opponents strength, game site). These live game win probabilities are used by ESPN’s Football Power Index season projections, which simulate the season based on each team’s strength, upcoming schedule and NFL tie-breaking rules. The end result is a representation of a team’s chance to make the playoffs and end up with each possible seed throughout time.