The Trump administration announced last week that it would impose a 10 percent tariff on aluminum and a 25 percent tariff on steel. | Win McNamee/Getty Images POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL Poll: Few voters think tariffs will help U.S. economy

Voters are split on imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from the European Union, Canada and Mexico, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.

But few think they will result in a boost for the U.S. economy, and a majority of voters say the tariffs will make those materials more expensive for U.S. businesses.


The Trump administration announced last Thursday that it would impose a 10 percent tariff on aluminum and a 25 percent tariff on steel.

Jeremy CF Lin | POLITICO / Morning Consult Poll

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll — which was conducted last Thursday through Monday, after the tariffs were announced — tested the tariffs two ways: Half of respondents were told that President Donald Trump announced the tariffs, while the other half of respondents were read a question that didn’t mention Trump’s name but said it was announced that the U.S. would impose the tariffs.

The differences were not statistically significant: On both questions, 39 percent pluralities oppose the tariffs. Among respondents who were told that Trump announced them, 35 percent support the tariffs — compared to 37 percent who support the tariffs without Trump in the question.

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While there is no overall difference between mentioning Trump and omitting his name, it has some impact on the partisan divide. Republicans mostly support the tariffs: 60 percent in the non-Trump sample back them, and that ticked up to 64 percent among respondents who were told Trump announced the tariffs.

The percentage of Democratic voters who support the tariffs decreases, from 22 percent in the non-Trump sample to 14 percent in the sample that got the Trump question.

Despite voters’ ambivalence to the tariffs, a 59 percent majority say imposing tariffs on aluminum and steel will make those materials more expensive for U.S. businesses.

Only 35 percent of voters think raising tariffs on aluminum and steel imports will help the U.S. economy, compared to 45 percent who think raising tariffs will hurt the economy. But 20 percent of voters don’t know or have no opinion.

By Jeremy CF Lin | POLITICO / Morning Consult

Voters are gearing up for a trade war, the poll shows. A majority, 62 percent, think it’s at least somewhat likely the tariffs will result in a trade war between the U.S. and other nations. Another 16 percent say a trade war is not too likely, and only 4 percent think it’s not likely at all.

Democratic voters are more likely to see a trade war on the horizon, though the sentiment is mostly bipartisan: 72 percent of Democrats think a trade war is at least somewhat likely, compared to 55 percent of Republicans and 59 percent of independents.

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll surveyed 1,990 voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.

More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents — Toplines: https://politi.co/2LrSU3h | Crosstabs: https://politi.co/2LrT0b9