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One under-appreciated indicator is flashing red for some developed markets, Goldman Sachs analysts say.

The private-sector financial balance — an economy’s total income minus the spending of all households and businesses — has proven more powerful in predicting crises than the current-account balance, Goldman analysts led by Jan Hatzius, the bank’s global head of economics, wrote in an Aug. 23 research note.

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“The good news is that the biggest DM economies — the U.S., the Euro area, and Japan — are all running healthy private sector surpluses,” they wrote. “The not-so-good news is that some of the smaller DM economies — especially Canada and the U.K. — are running sizable deficits and appear vulnerable to higher interest rates and weaker asset markets.”