The draft is done and free agency is a week away so it’s time to talk about the primary options of the next few weeks. The draft day trade of Jimmy Butler to Minnesota followed by the flurry of rumors about Paul George trades to the Celtics should clarify some things for us.

The first thing to understand is that, while it’s technically possible for the Celtics to clear the space for a max contract free agent like Gordon Hayward or Blake Griffin and then put together enough outgoing salary to trade for George as well, this seems unlikely. The first “problem” is that to match salaries with George as an over-the-cap team Boston would have to send out multiple rotation players on top of the picks that Indiana will actually want. Boston’s rotation may be shaping up to be too deep anyway, so this isn’t necessarily a dead end, but it could mean trading more value for one season of George than the T-Wolves did for two seasons of Butler. Ideally it would need to become a multi-team trade where players like Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley become picks from other teams instead of being packaged on top of picks, but those trades can be harder to put together.

The larger problem would be the luxury tax. In 2018 the team would want to re-sign Isaiah Thomas and Paul George, meaning that just the foursome of those two plus Hayward and Al Horford would have them around the tax line. Filling out the rest of the roster would be prohibitively expensive; potentially reaching $100M just in tax payments. The team could move on from Thomas, but I don’t know if anyone is ready to go quite that “positionless” yet. The long-term tax implications look so dire that I would say this is an either-or decision between George and a max free agent, or a three-from-four from George, a max free agent, Thomas, and Horford.

If this is an either-or decision, it makes sense that no trade was consummated on draft night. The ideal way for this to play out for Boston is for Indiana to wait to trade George until after the start of free agency. Boston could have functionally worked out an “if we don’t get Gordon Hayward” trade price for George with Indiana. The Pacers can understand this as well as I can, so they would be looking for more than they could get from a team like the Lakers as the price for the risk of waiting. If the ransom for Butler was functionally a pick swap, a sixth man, and a possible bust, the price for George should be easily manageable. The risk of this strategy is obviously that the Pacers will move onto a deal that can be agreed to right away, leaving the Celtics without a fall-back plan if Hayward doesn’t sign.

To think through how this might play out, let’s start by asking some questions:

Would you rather have Paul George or Gordon Hayward? What is the trade price for Paul George? What is the cost in shedding salary to sign Hayward? Would Paul George agree to a renegotiate-and-extend in Boston? Do the acquisition prices and extension options change your player preference?

Gordon Hayward or Paul George?

At the moment, this seems like a decision between recency and history. PG-13 has been better through his career but Hayward was slightly better last season. I would tend to trust the longer history but the upward arc of Hayward’s career shouldn’t be dismissed. Hayward needs the ball more than George which may be a slight negative on a team with Thomas and Horford. George’s attitude doesn’t seem all that great and may not fit perfectly in the Celtics’ culture, but his history defending LeBron James certainly would.

I think this is close enough to be a matter of personal preference. Obviously you would rather have Hayward for three seasons than George for one, but that involves a larger discussion.

Paul George’s Trade Value

This should have been solidified by the last few days. The Lakers were reportedly hoping to get PG-13 for a few late picks an okay player. Butler went for very little. Something like the future, protected Memphis and Clippers picks would not be a bad offer. If Boston adds any rotation player to the mix it’s hard to imagine that wouldn’t be the best offer on the table. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and the future Brooklyn and LA/Sacramento picks are immediately off the table. One note here is that this could allow the team to retain Kelly Olynyk where a move for max space almost certainly does not, but it’s not the ideal scenario.

The Cost of Max Space

The cap projection lowering to $99M hurt Boston. Having traded down from 1 to 3 it looked like they would be able to get to max space without giving up any of Crowder, Bradley, Smart, or Zizic. Now they would have to give up one of those players (plus Rozier if you select Zizic) on top of waiving Tyler Zeller, stashing Guerschon Yabusele, and letting Kelly Olynyk walk. If the trade price for Paul George includes a rotation player, it may be that the cost to next season’s team is similar. In this scenario you don’t have to trade any picks though, and can flip the contract you’re moving for an inexpensive player or another future pick.

Will Paul George Extend?

This may be the crux of the decision. We know that Paul George won’t extend his contract in Indiana, but what if he moves to Boston? Having been traded he would no longer have a reason to play things out in an attempt to get Designated Player eligibility and a super-max deal. He’s slated to make under $20M next season so he can’t do a standard extension anywhere because that would be limited to a starting salary 8% above that. However, if Boston has cap space after trading for George they could potentially renegotiate his contract and then extend it.

George currently has seven years of NBA experience so the Celtics could offer him a major raise in 2017-18 and then, because the cap is flattening out, a three year extension (third year would be a player option) that pays him more than he would make by waiting for free agency. If he were to opt-out after the renegotiated season and the first two of the extension, he would then have ten years experience and be eligible for the 35%-tier maximum. This is functionally the same deal that Gordon Hayward is looking for, opting out of one season making a salary in the high teens for a 3+1 deal making the max.

As an example, let’s say that Boston trades the rights to Yabusele to Indiana with the future Memphis pick. You can throw in another future pick or Semi Ojeleye or Demetrius Jackson but we’ll use this basic framework. Doing just that, and not including any rotation player, gets Boston to around $27.5M in cap space by waiving Tyler Zeller and Jordan Mickey and renouncing all their remaining free agents (including Zeller but not Zizic, who I’m assuming will be signed). Boston could take George into that cap space via trade and then give him all that extra space as a renegotiated 2017-18 salary, amounting to an $8M raise. If you move out more salary you can add up to $2M more. That higher baseline salary then makes an extension financially viable because the cap will be flat-ish for the next few years.

The table originally shown in this post had a calculation error that has since been updated.

This path is the most financially beneficial to George, assuming Indiana is now committed to trading him and so he cannot get a DVE contract, so if he is unwilling to go this route it would be an extreme red flag that he’s truly set on moving to Los Angeles. Basically, if he’s willing to do this you get the same level of certainty as you do with Hayward and, if not, you must assume you are trading for a one season rental no matter how well things go.

Costs and Considerations

If this ultimately is an either-or decision between Hayward or George it looks like the calculus goes as follows:

If all thing being equal you prefer Hayward, you try to string Indiana out until free agency begins so you can try to sign Hayward but still have George as a fall-back

If all things being equal you prefer George, you might as well trade for him now if he’s willing to complete a renegotiate-and-extend and you don’t think it’s financially viable to carry both

If you prefer George but are unsure about the extension, you string things out to try to sign Hayward and then only trade for George as a fall-back if you can get him for the one season rental price, which should be very low

If you miss out on signing Hayward and George is making it clear that he is a one year rental at a multi-year trade price, you move on with neither

In all instances that involve Hayward or George (or Blake Griffin, if you prefer) it’s best to assume that Olynyk, Zeller, and Mickey are off the team. Yabusele probably gets stashed or traded, unless you are giving a rotation piece in the trade for George or moving Bradley or Crowder to clear space for Hayward. The paths likely leads to Isaiah Thomas re-signing in 2018, but it’s at least possible that lottery luck in 2018 brings in generational talent prospects and kicks the team into more of a rebuilding path. The door for a future Anthony Davis trade remains open, with Al Horford probably used as the salary match and a number of high quality picks and prospects going out the door in June or July 2018 as the price.

Adding only one of Paul George or a max free agent looks like the best combination of immediate gain, financial stability, and future flexibility.