Iowa's prison population could increase by 24 percent over the next decade, a forecast released today by the Iowa Department of Human Rights' Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning shows. The agency forecasted figures for the prison population for each fiscal year through 2027 by using data on current prison admissions, length of incarceration, and prison releases.

The report showed that if current trends, policies and practices continue, the state will see an increase in the current fiscal year population from 8,371 inmates to 8,611 by June 30, 2018, a rise of less than 3 percent. But the ten-year projection indicates an increase of 24 percent to 10,396 inmates. It also noted that by next summer, space for women prisoners could be near capacity, while housing for male prisoners statewide would exceed capacity by more than 1,300, or 18 percent.

Among other findings in the report: The record high number of inmates came in April 2011 with 9,009 people incarcerated. Since that time, the number has declined. The lowest point since then was 8,078 inmates in 2013; a steady increase has occurred since that time.

The proportion of inmates released via parole since FY 2011 has increased, attributing to the low population point at that time.

Increases in admissions since FY 2016 has been largely for lower-level felony and misdemeanor admissions, which carry a shorter average length of stay.

From FY 2016 to FY 2017, there were similar proportions of offenders released via completion of sentence and parole, and a slightly higher number of offenders on work release. The prison forecast is among tools used by governmental officials to help guide programmatic or policy decisions, the study's authors said, adding that, to date, the Department of Corrections, state government officials and policy makers "have made many efforts to help ensure that the state prison population does not reach the forecasted growth figures."

The report notes that a key function of the prison forecast is to inform public policy decisions that can curb the rate of prison growth and achieve the goal of reducing prison populations while protecting public safety.

The entire report can be found on the Iowa Department of Human Rights website.