Microsoft founder predicts cheaper digital devices and better software will bring big change to learning as lives of poor people improve faster than ever

Cheaper smartphones and tablets, advances in software and better network coverage will revolutionise the way children in developing countries learn over the next 15 years, according to the Microsoft co-founder and philanthropist Bill Gates.

Speaking as he and his wife, Melinda, publish the seventh annual state-of-the-world letter from their eponymous foundation, Gates said recent progress in communications technology had been hugely encouraging.

“The educational software is still not such that every five-year-old could sit there and do their alphabet or try their math out,” he told the Guardian. “But I’m seeing things in the lab now which, given time, really will be pervasive.

“Over the next 15 years, that quality will get so good that the free or very low-cost stuff will be pervasive and anyone with a cell phone or cheap tablet will have access to that – and it really will change education.”

Gates, whose foundation is best known for its investment in health and agriculture, said he had been keeping an eye on the potential applications of phones and tablets over the past few years, and funding a lot of research and development.



“The networks still aren’t there yet, but as they get out into poor countries, and as the device prices get to around the $100 range, that creates the possibility that you can use it as a financial digital debit card, or to inform a farmer about what’s going on with the weather and when they should plant, or to help healthcare workers to track their activities and inventories,” he said.

“All sorts of ways of gathering data to get these systems working at high quality become possible with these digital tools.”

In their letter, the philanthropists predict that the lives of people in poor countries will improve faster over the next 15 years than ever before, with the number of child deaths halved again, polio eradicated and the end of malaria in sight.



We think the next 15 years will see major breakthroughs for most people in poor countries Bill Gates

They also wager that better crops, fertilisers and infrastructure will allow Africa to feed itself by 2030, and that mobile phones and digital banking will transform the lives of poor people over the same period by giving them access to savings accounts, credit and insurance.

Despite the plentiful optimism, though, the couple recognise that not everyone on the planet is likely to see their lives improve.



“A sceptic would look at the world’s problems and conclude that things are only getting worse,” they write. “And we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that a handful of the worst-off countries will continue to struggle. But we think the next 15 years will see major breakthroughs for most people in poor countries.”

Asked how the upbeat predictions sat with the ongoing crises in Syria, Iraq, South Sudan and Central African Republic, Gates said violence was a “huge setback” to development.



“As countries get wealthier, the chances of civil war and violence go down a lot,” he said. “But you still see eruptions in countries like Syria that aren’t poor, and the refugee tragedy there is pretty unbelievable.”

The situation in Nigeria, he said, was another case in point. Despite its booming economy, the country is still struggling with corruption, and the disruption and bloodshed caused by Boko Haram.



However, said Gates, efforts made to improve basic health provision were paying off even amid the violence. “We have Boko Haram, which is doing horrific things up in the north, where we are working with some of the primary healthcare systems, in places like Kano state, and we’re really getting it working well and getting the vaccines out to more kids,” he said.

“For the first time ever, we’ve gone over six months with no polio cases anywhere in Africa – including Nigeria, which was our big problem.”

He added: “Setbacks come in headlines and improvements come one life at a time.”