WHAT EXPLAINS the declining viewership of the Primetime Emmys, one of Hollywood’s glitziest awards shows? A decade ago, the three-hour ceremony was watched by 13.5m American households. A decade before that, some 20m tuned in. Overnight ratings suggest the most recent edition, which took place on September 22nd, attracted fewer than 7m viewers.

This trend might seem surprising. The appetite for TV is at an all-time high, with the average American watching more than five hours a day. With more than 500 new scripted television series released each year—up from fewer than 100 in the 1990s—there should be greater interest in finding out which shows are outstanding, not less.

At the same time, audiences have ever more options for a Sunday night in front of the set. Many would rather play “Fortnite” or watch one of the nominated shows instead of the live event. If they care about the results, they can search for them on Twitter or read about them the next day. But even here, interest seems to be waning.

As the volume of TV has increased, the shows celebrated by the Emmys have become increasingly obscure. Blockbusters such as “Game of Thrones” and “This is Us” might triumph, but gone are the days in which the nominations were dominated by shows like “Friends” and “ER”, watched at the time of broadcast by 15m to 25m homes every week. The bulk of nominees today are series such as “Pose” or “Killing Eve”, each of which enjoys fewer than 1m viewers live. This drop is in part a consequence of the shift to “on-demand” streaming services such as Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and Hulu. According to AMC Networks, which distributes “Killing Eve”, the show’s viewership grows several-fold after it has been broadcast live, once all platforms and on-demand services are accounted for.

Not only have audiences fragmented across a larger range of TV shows and platforms, but most of their viewing is asynchronous and private. Five of the 15 series nominated this year for Outstanding Comedy or Outstanding Drama, such as “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” and “Ozark”, were released all at once rather than on a weekly basis. While networks claim audiences prefer “bingeing”—and that such a model maximises total viewership—it also means that the cultural influence of these shows is curtailed.

And so the industry has struggled to launch new hit series. Despite massive investments in marketing, stars and franchises—not to mention the unprecedented number of new shows—Hollywood has not seen a breakout hit since “Westworld” (from HBO), “This Is Us” (NBC) and “Stranger Things” (Netflix) had their premieres in 2016. This year’s winner for Outstanding Drama, “Game of Thrones”, had its premiere in 2011, was the frontrunner in 2019, and had previously won in 2015, 2016 and 2018 (it was ineligible in 2017). Having won in 2015, 2016 and 2018, “Veep” (first broadcast in 2012) was once again the frontrunner for the Outstanding Comedy category. In the end, it was bested by “Fleabag”, which had its premiere in 2016 (its creator, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, is pictured). Though superb, “Fleabag” arguably does not have the broad appeal of “Everybody Loves Raymond”, which was nominated for that award seven times and won twice.

The struggle to launch new hit shows is driving the big networks to focus their programming budgets on current hits and old classics. HBO has already approved a “Game of Thrones” prequel series, which would be the network’s first-ever spin-off. And according to George R. R. Martin, the writer of the “Game of Thrones” novels, a second prequel is in the works. Later this year, HBO will also release adaptations of two fantasy/sci-fi classics, “His Dark Materials” and “The Watchmen”. To fill out its new streaming service, Disney+, Disney is producing a roster of TV shows based around its film series, such as “Star Wars” and “Monsters Inc.”, starring many of the same characters and actors. Bonnie Hammer, NBCUniversal’s chairman of direct-to-consumer programming, recently said that one of her priorities is to reboot “The Office”, a sitcom that only left American airwaves in 2013.

The Emmy Awards in 2029, then, might look rather similar to those of 2019 or 2009. The only difference is that fewer people will be watching.