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Oil prices could tumble as much as $15 a barrel next year if sanctions are lifted following a final nuclear deal with Iran, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Iran and world powers reached a preliminary agreement last week that set the parameters for further negotiations needed to complete a signed, comprehensive agreement by a June 30 deadline. The re-entry of more Iranian barrels could cut the EIA’s price projection by $5 to $15 a barrel, the U.S. Energy Department’s statistical arm said Tuesday.

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“If a comprehensive agreement that results in the lifting of Iranian oil-related sanctions is reached, then this could significantly change the STEO forecast for oil supply, demand, and prices,” it said. “However, the timing and order that sanctions could be suspended is uncertain.”

Iran’s full return to the oil market risks delaying a recovery in prices, which have slumped 50 per cent since last year following a supply glut. Iran could boost output by at least 700,000 barrels a day by the end of 2016, the EIA said. The nation produced 2.85 million barrels a day in March, according to Bloomberg data.