As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. Many MLB teams and agencies reference our projections in their work. You won’t find anything else like this on the Internet! The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2015 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).

Service time data, the Super Two cutoff, and the 2016 MLB minimum salary are not yet official or known. We’re using 2.130 for the Super Two cutoff and $508K for the MLB minimum here. In general, if you see any inaccuracies or have questions, please leave a comment or contact us. Also, please note that we’ve fixed some errors from the original version of this post.

Angels (6)



Fernando Salas (5.048) – $2.2MM

Cesar Ramos (5.003) – $1.7MM

Hector Santiago (4.016) – $5.1MM

Collin Cowgill (3.151) – $1.0MM

Garrett Richards (3.148) – $6.8MM

Kole Calhoun (2.130) – $3.6MM

Astros (8)

Luis Valbuena (5.148) – $5.8MM

Jason Castro (5.104) – $4.6MM

Hank Conger (4.051) – $1.8MM

Chris Carter (3.159) – $5.6MM

Marwin Gonzalez (3.133) – $1.9MM

Dallas Keuchel (3.089) – $6.4MM

Josh Fields (3.000) – $800K

Evan Gattis (3.000) – $3.4MM

Athletics (15)

Ike Davis (5.155) – $3.8MM

Sam Fuld (5.140) – $2.0MM

Jesse Chavez (5.108) – $4.7MM

Josh Reddick (5.050) – $7.0MM

Craig Gentry (4.125) – $1.6MM

Danny Valencia (4.118) – $3.4MM

Fernando Abad (4.073) – $1.5MM

Eric Sogard (4.064) – $1.7MM

Brett Lawrie (4.055) – $3.9MM

Felix Doubront (4.041) – $2.5MM

Fernando Rodriguez (4.032) – $1.3MM

Jarrod Parker (4.000) – $850K

Drew Pomeranz (3.013) – $1.3MM

A.J. Griffin (3.000) – $508K

Evan Scribner (2.142) – $700K

Blue Jays (9)

Brett Cecil (5.152) – $3.4MM

Michael Saunders (5.138) – $2.9MM

Justin Smoak (5.077) – $2.0MM

Ben Revere (4.149) – $6.7MM

Josh Thole (4.126) – $1.8MM

Josh Donaldson (3.158) – $12.0MM

Drew Hutchison (3.128) – $2.6MM

Aaron Loup (3.083) – $900K

Steve Delabar (3.008) – $700K

Braves (5)

Mike Minor (4.138) – $5.6MM

Pedro Ciriaco (3.049) – $800K

Shelby Miller (3.030) – $4.9MM

Arodys Vizcaino (2.168) – $1.1MM

Chris Withrow (2.132) – $600K

Brewers (3)

Jean Segura (3.065) – $3.2MM

Wily Peralta (3.033) – $2.8MM

Will Smith (2.155) – $1.2MM

Cardinals (7)

Brandon Moss (5.160) – $7.9MM

Peter Bourjos (5.062) – $1.8MM

Steve Cishek (4.143) – $7.1MM

Tony Cruz (4.105) – $1.0MM

Trevor Rosenthal (3.058) – $6.5MM

Matt Adams (3.033) – $1.5MM

Seth Maness (2.154) – $1.2MM

Cubs (8)

Clayton Richard (5.154) – $1.1MM

Chris Coghlan (5.148) – $3.9MM

Travis Wood (5.004) – $6.4MM

Pedro Strop (4.156) – $4.7MM

Jake Arrieta (4.145) – $10.4MM

Ryan Cook (3.086) – $1.4MM

Hector Rondon (3.000) – $3.6MM

Justin Grimm (2.170) – $1.0MM

Diamondbacks (8)

Daniel Hudson (5.117) – $2.0MM

Josh Collmenter (5.000) – $2.8MM arbitration projection; has a $1.825MM club option.

Matt Reynolds (4.046) – $800K

Welington Castillo (4.009) – $3.6MM

Patrick Corbin (3.105) – $2.3MM

Randall Delgado (3.100) – $1.0MM

Rubby De La Rosa (3.097) – $3.2MM

A.J. Pollock (3.052) – $4.3MM

Dodgers (9)

A.J. Ellis (5.151) – $4.5MM

Kenley Jansen (5.073) – $11.4MM

Justin Turner (5.045) – $5.3MM

Juan Nicasio (4.084) – $3.1MM

Yasmani Grandal (3.115) – $2.7MM

Luis Avilan (3.077) – $1.1MM

Joe Wieland (3.027) – $508K

Scott Van Slyke (2.151) – $1.2MM

Chris Hatcher (2.146) – $900K

Giants (4)

Yusmeiro Petit (5.016) – $2.4MM

Brandon Belt (4.128) – $6.2MM

Hector Sanchez (3.113) – $900K

George Kontos (2.171) – $1.0MM

Indians (7)

Josh Tomlin (4.151) – $3.1MM

Bryan Shaw (4.081) – $2.8MM

Lonnie Chisenhall (3.158) – $3.0MM

Zach McAllister (3.077) – $1.0MM

Cody Allen (3.076) – $3.5MM

Nick Hagadone (3.056) – $600K

Jeff Manship (2.130) – $700K

Mariners (3)

Mark Trumbo (5.027) – $9.1MM

Charlie Furbush (4.121) – $1.7MM

Anthony Bass (3.148) – $1.1MM

Leonys Martin (3.063) – $3.75MM*

Marlins (9)

Aaron Crow (5.000) – $1.975MM

Henderson Alvarez (4.051) – $4.0MM

David Phelps (3.156) – $2.5MM

Dee Gordon (3.154) – $5.9MM

Adeiny Hechavarria (3.060) – $2.3MM

A.J. Ramos (3.030) – $2.8MM

Tom Koehler (3.016) – $3.9MM

Bryan Morris (3.011) – $1.1MM

Carter Capps (3.007) – $800K

Jose Fernandez (3.000) – $2.2MM

Mets (8)

Ruben Tejada (4.171) – $2.5MM

Lucas Duda (4.137) – $6.8MM

Addison Reed (4.002) – $5.7MM

Carlos Torres (3.114) – $800K

Jenrry Mejia (3.085) – $2.6MM

Matt Harvey (3.072) – $4.7MM

Jeurys Familia (3.030) – $3.3MM

Josh Edgin (3.015) – $600K

Nationals (9)

Craig Stammen (5.160) – $2.4MM

Drew Storen (5.140) – $8.8MM

Stephen Strasburg (5.118) – $10.5MM

Wilson Ramos (5.047) – $5.3MM

Jose Lobaton (4.138) – $1.5MM

Danny Espinosa (4.113) – $2.7MM

Tyler Moore (3.018) – $1.0MM

Anthony Rendon (2.130) – $2.5MM

Orioles (10)

Brian Matusz (5.156) – $3.4MM

Nolan Reimold (5.113) – $900K

Paul Janish (4.156) – $600K

Chris Tillman (4.113) – $6.2MM

Miguel Gonzalez (4.095) – $4.9MM

Ryan Flaherty (4.000) – $1.5MM

Zach Britton (3.158) – $6.9MM

Vance Worley (3.112) – $2.7MM

Brad Brach (3.063) – $1.1MM

Manny Machado (3.056) – $5.9MM

David Lough (2.149) – $800K

Padres (8)

Marc Rzepczynski (5.132) – $3.0MM

Andrew Cashner (5.126) – $7.0MM

Cory Luebke (5.033) – $5.25MM arbitration projection; has a $7.5MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout.

Tyson Ross (4.126) – $10.0MM

Yonder Alonso (4.116) – $2.5MM

Derek Norris (3.102) – $3.4MM

Will Middlebrooks (3.057) – $1.5MM

Brett Wallace (3.003) – $1.1MM

Phillies (4)

Jeremy Hellickson (5.045) – $6.6MM

Andres Blanco (5.007) – $1.0MM

Jeanmar Gomez (4.063) – $1.5MM

Freddy Galvis (3.021) – $1.9MM

Pirates (9)

Neil Walker (5.166) – $10.7MM

Francisco Cervelli (5.146) – $2.5MM

Mark Melancon (5.098) – $10.0MM

Chris Stewart (5.091) – $1.6MM

Pedro Alvarez (5.085) – $8.1MM

Tony Watson (4.101) – $4.6MM

Jared Hughes (3.162) – $2.2MM

Jordy Mercer (3.095) – $1.8MM

Jeff Locke (3.020) – $3.5MM

Rangers (10)

Mitch Moreland (5.067) – $5.6MM

Tom Wilhelmsen (4.089) – $3.0MM

Chris Gimenez (3.163) – $1.0MM

Shawn Tolleson (3.122) – $2.6MM

Tanner Scheppers (3.111) – $800K

Robinson Chirinos (3.103) – $1.4MM

Jake Diekman (3.049) – $1.0MM

Jurickson Profar (2.167) – $508K

Nick Tepesch (2.136) – $508K

Rays (11)

Logan Morrison (5.069) – $4.1MM

Jake McGee (4.127) – $4.7MM

Logan Forsythe (4.113) – $3.3MM

Desmond Jennings (4.101) – $3.1MM

Rene Rivera (4.082) – $1.6MM

Alex Cobb (4.061) – $4.0MM

J.P. Arencibia (4.052) – $1.4MM

Daniel Nava (4.045) – $1.9MM

Drew Smyly (3.154) – $3.9MM

Brandon Gomes (3.082) – $900K

Brandon Guyer (3.066) – $1.3MM

Erasmo Ramirez (2.158) – $2.8MM

Red Sox (5)

Junichi Tazawa (5.086) – $3.3MM

Anthony Varvaro (3.121) – $700K

Joe Kelly (3.101) – $3.2MM

Robbie Ross (3.100) – $1.1MM

Jean Machi (2.154) – $900K

Reds (4)

Aroldis Chapman (5.034) – $12.9MM

Zack Cozart (4.084) – $2.9MM

Ryan Mattheus (3.123) – $1.3MM

J.J. Hoover (3.102) – $$1.1MM

Rockies (9)

John Axford (5.170) – $6.5MM

Adam Ottavino (4.087) – $1.6MM

Jordan Lyles (4.060) – $2.8MM

Rex Brothers (3.131) – $1.5MM

DJ LeMahieu (3.128) – $3.7MM

Wilin Rosario (3.123) – $3.2MM

Charlie Blackmon (3.102) – $4.5MM

Brandon Barnes (3.024) – $1.2MM

Nolan Arenado (2.155) – $6.6MM

Royals (8)

Greg Holland (5.028) – $11.3MM

Drew Butera (5.018) – $1.1MM

Mike Moustakas (4.111) – $5.7MM

Tim Collins (4.097) – $1.475MM

Jarrod Dyson (4.088) – $1.7MM

Danny Duffy (4.085) – $4.0MM

Lorenzo Cain (4.074) – $6.1MM

Louis Coleman (3.018) – $1.0MM

Tigers (5)

Neftali Feliz (5.151) – $5.2MM

Al Alburquerque (4.147) – $2.1MM

J.D. Martinez (4.036) – $7.8MM

Andrew Romine (3.049) – $700K

Jose Iglesias (3.036) – $1.5MM

Twins (6)

Kevin Jepsen (5.163) – $6.0MM

Trevor Plouffe (4.162) – $7.7MM

Eduardo Nunez (4.090) – $1.5MM

Casey Fien (3.143) – $2.2MM

Tommy Milone (3.143) – $4.5MM

Eduardo Escobar (3.128) – $1.8MM

White Sox (5)

Tyler Flowers (4.148) – $3.5MM

Nate Jones (4.000) – $900K

Jacob Turner (3.033) – $1.0MM

Dan Jennings (2.171) – $700K

Avisail Garcia (2.167) – $2.3MM

Zach Putnam (2.135) – $800K

Yankees (7)

Ivan Nova (5.024) – $4.4MM

Michael Pineda (4.099) – $4.6MM

Dustin Ackley (4.087) – $3.1MM

Nate Eovaldi (4.013) – $5.7MM

Adam Warren (3.036) – $1.5MM

Justin Wilson (3.035) – $1.3MM

Didi Gregorius (2.159) – $2.1MM

*Original projection ($1.6MM) updated to reflect prior season’s salary.