MUMBAI:

rate during 2019-20 will be the lowest since 2012 (the base year) at 5.7%, according to the state’s economic survey released on Thursday. In 2018-19 the actual growth rate was 6% though the estimate was 7.5%.

The figures for the past two years clearly indicate a slowdown in the country’s largest state economy, said officials, but the expected growth rate for 2019-20 is still higher than that for all of India, which is estimated at 5%.

The survey report, tabled in the legislative assembly by finance minister Ajit Pawar on Thursday, shows a decline in estimated growth rate for industrial sector from 5.5% to 3.3% and for the service sector from 8.1% to 7.6%. The worst-hit in industry is the manufacturing sector, where growth rate is set to go down from 6% in 2018-19 to just 2.7%.

But amid the gloom, agriculture shows a positive growth of 3.1% as against the negative (-) 2.2% last year. This is largely due to abundant rainfall received last year, which was 112.6% of the state’s normal rainfall during monsoon.

Previous government to blame: Ajit Pawar

The survey states crop production in the rabi (winter) season is expected to be better than in the kharif season compared to the previous year. Growth rate in the crop sector is expected to be 2.5% as against (-) 3.8 per cent last year, livestock is set to be steady at 6%, forestry and logging is set to turn positive at 0.4% as against (-) 7.4% in 2018-19, and the growth in fisheries and aquaculture is estimated at 1.7% against (-) 10.5 % the previous year.

The government, however, has been slow in disbursing loans to the agriculture sector. Having set a target of Rs 87,322 crore for 2019-20, it had, up to December 2019, disbursed Rs 24,897 crore through financial institutions as against Rs 31,283 crore during 2018-19. Up to September 2019, agricultural term loans of Rs 18,147 crore had been disbursed as against Rs 36,631 crore during 2018-19.

The state’s financial position continues to be a concern, with debt estimated at Rs 4.7 lakh crore from Rs 4.14 lakh crore in 2018-19. The state says it is 16.4% of the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP), well within the 24.4% of GSDP recommended by the 14th Finance Commission. The interest payment is estimated at Rs 35,207 crore, revenue deficit at Rs 20,293 crore and fiscal deficit at Rs 61,670 crore.

Revenue receipts for 2019-20 are estimated at Rs 3.15 lakh crore. The actual revenue receipts during April to December 2019 were Rs 2.14 lakh crore (68% of budget estimates). The revenue expenditure is estimated at Rs 3.4 lakh crore, as against Rs 3 lakh crore the previous year. While capital receipts are expected to increase by 4.5% (Rs 89,887 crore) over the previous year, capital expenditure is set to decrease by 2.7% (Rs 70,000 crore).

Though the average share of

’s contribution to India’s GDP, at 14.3%, is the highest among all states, it is down by 0.7% compared to 2018-19, when it was 15%.

The GSDP, though, is expected to increase by Rs 2.5 lakh crore to Rs 29 lakh crore as against Rs 26 lakh crore last year. The per capita income during 2019-20 is expected at Rs 2.07 lakh as against Rs 1.91 lakh in 2018-19, with Tamil Nadu overtaking it and the state now standing fifth behind Haryana, Karnataka, Telangana and Tamil Nadu.

The year-on-year rate of inflation based on average consumer price index during April–December 2019 was 9.2% for rural areas and 6.2% for urban areas as against 0.6% and 1.9% respectively during April–December 2018.

While the state has remained a favoured destination for foreign direct investment with 29% of the total FDI inflows from 2000 to 2019, Karnataka has inched ahead of Maharashtra in 2019, having received an inflow of Rs 32,431 crore as against Maharashtra’s Rs 25,316 crore.

On the employment front, the Employment Market Information Programme shows employment in public and private sectors was down to 72 lakh up to June 2019 as against 74 lakh in 2018-19. Regarding government jobs, the state government’s sanctioned posts from groups A to D in July 2019 were 7.19 lakh, of which 5.12 lakh had been filled.

Ajit Pawar blamed the “wrong policies” of the previous BJP-led government for the situation. “Several issues in the economic survey are a cause for concern. It is due to the wrong policies pursued during the past five years by the previous government. The decline in industry, services sector, employment and GDP is very serious. We will not keep reiterating the wrongs of the previous government but will focus on correcting the mistakes. The Maha Vikas Aghadi government will focus on using every opportunity that presents itself and make every effort to recover Maharashtra’s number one position in agriculture, industry, commerce, education and FDI.”