Second choices may be key in close caucuses in Iowa

DES MOINES, Iowa — Democratic presidential candidates seeking victory in this week’s Iowa caucuses are navigating a field that is so jumbled that voters’ second choices could matter almost as much as their first, adding fresh uncertainty and confusion to the final days of the race.

Lower-polling candidates including Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Yang and Tom Steyer have been approached by campaigns in recent days eager to form an alliance that could reshape Monday’s election. Joe Biden’s team has been in communication with lower-polling rivals, according to several people familiar with the conversations who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The former vice president’s campaign dismisses such reports of potential deal-making as dramatized accounts of business as usual. But the delicate overtures are a test of the leading campaigns’ ability to assemble a winning coalition and the capacity of second-tier candidates to stay relevant. And it could be decisive in determining who leaves Iowa with the momentum that will be needed to sustain a long campaign ahead.

“The second-place phenomenon, at least in Iowa, is not a bad thing at all,” said Iowa state Sen. Zach Wahls, who supports Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

In contrast to a traditional election, the caucus system works like this: Voters gather at dozens of caucus locations across the state and start the night by pledging support for their preferred candidate. After the initial vote count is taken, voters backing candidates who earn less than 15% are free to shift to other candidates or go home.

While a dozen Democrats are still running for president, just four — Biden, Warren, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg — have consistently polled above the 15% threshold in Iowa. Still, any of the four could see their support fall short, depending on who shows up to caucus.

As is the case with Biden and others, Warren sees an opportunity to draw significant support from Klobuchar, who has not reached the 15% threshold in polls to date, even as the Minnesota senator’s standing appears to have improved in recent weeks.

Klobuchar’s team, aware that she’s viewed as a source of second-choice votes from several campaigns, downplayed the possibility of a potential deal when asked about conversations with rival campaigns.

“We’ve got no plans to cut any deals with anybody because we’re going to be viable,” said Klobuchar campaign manager Justin Buoen.

Steve Peoples and Will Weissert are Associated Press writers.