Bernard Haykel urges Obama and his successor to mend fences with Saudi Arabia and to "act as an umpire" in the sectarian conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. He highlights various circumstances that have resulted in Riyadh's "aggressive and militaristic" foreign policy. Part of it is the perceived threat of Iran's rise to regional power, and its expansionist ambition.

He also cautions against destabilising the oil-rich kingdom, saying, it is "not just a linchpin of the global economy; its government’s stability is crucial to the international order." Indeed, the fall of the ruling dynasty would see "the country splinter into rival territories ruled by jihadi factions and tribes," making the civil wars in Syria and Libya "seem like minor conflicts in comparison." With its deep-rooted deficiencies in governance structure, Saudi Arabia is seen by critics as on the brink of protracted state failure, a process likely to take-off in the coming years. As there is little appetite for fundamental reforms, Washington sees little it can do to help, but continue to sell advanced weaponry to the kingdom, which has the third-largest defence budget in the world behind the US and China.

While the civil war in Syria is of sectarian nature and marks the struggle between the Sunnis and Shiites, the infighting in Libya among rebels and militia groups is all about the control of oil. As Saudi Arabia is "the source of one in nine barrels of oil consumed globally," various rival groups will compete for power and wealth, if the House of Saud collapses. The Shiites in the Eastern Province, which is the largest in the kingdom and home to most of its oil, have already been complaining about discrimination and marginalisation. They will certainly seek help from Iran to defend their territories. A civil war in Saudi Arabia "would quickly spill over into neighboring Gulf countries, triggering a regional implosion, with unthinkable humanitarian consequences." What is worse is that "the US would not be able to avoid being dragged militarily into the region, if only to safeguard the supplies of oil and gas on which the global economy depends."

Unfortunately the kingdom has under King Salman and his 30-year old son, deputy crown prince and minister of defence, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, abandoned its "long tradition of quiet diplomacy and behind-the-scenes maneuvers." Emboldened by their military might, the Saudis' war in Yemen to confront the Iran-backed Houthi rebels had not gone smoothly at all. This mililary intervention was launched last year, because the Saudis were frustrated by Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran and the Washington's withdrawal from the region.

The US can only "secure the monarchy’s longevity and ensure the country’s stability" if King Salman agrees to rattle the current social order and political system. The author fears that "if the Middle East is allowed to continue on its present drift, without American leadership, US military intervention – most likely sooner rather than later – will become a near-certainty." He urges the US to "prevail upon the Saudi government to start negotiating with Iran, reducing tensions on a broad range of fronts, including Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain, and Yemen." It is true that the "wars in Iraq and Syria will not end until Iran and Saudi Arabia come to an accommodation." The two "may one day find a way to share the Middle East." But whether it "will require US mediation" is another question, because many say the US should let regional players to sort things out among themselves. It takes two to tango - Iran and Saudi Arabia will each have to get its act together.