The current ratings

Welcome to the first installment of AJD7’s statewide down ballot office ratings! These offices don’t get talked about much, but they’re still important. Today we begin with Attorneys General, who were crucial sources of conservative opposition to the Obama Administration and should Democrats do well in these races, they can be big sources of liberal opposition to the Trump administration as well. Additionally, these offices have huge importance in their state’s politics, so let’s jump right in:

Safe D: CA, DE, IL, IA, MD, MA, NM, NY, RI, VT

Likely D: CT

Connecticut: Open (Jepsen)

The incumbent Democrat George Jepsen is retiring from his post as Attorney General, creating a potential opening for Republicans. After all, the GOP has had several good cycles at the state level in a row in Connecticut due to the unpopularity of the state Democratic Party. Still this is a blue state nationally, and that makes any generic Dem a strong favorite, especially in a year like 2018. 2016 RNC Delegate Susan Hatfield is the Republican nominee, while Democrats nominated State Rep. William Tong. Republicans were hoping for success in Connecticut in 2018, but with the Governor’s race seemingly slipping out of their grasp, it also seems unlikely that they will capture the AG job.

Tossup: CO, FL, MI, MN, OH, NV, WI

Colorado: Open (Coffman)

Current Republican AG Cynthia Coffman decided not to run for re-election and instead seek her party’s nomination for Governor, a decision that did not end well for her. In the process, it opens up this seat and gives Democrats an opportunity to gain a row office in a blue leaning swing state where they have struggled recently at the state level. The Republican nominee is George Brauchler, the District Attorney for the 18th Judicial District and he has a handsome war-chest in tow. The Democratic nominee is Phil Weiser, a former Obama administration official, who has started to rebuild his war-chest after a tight primary. The one poll we have here showed Weizer up double digits, but it was sponsored by a Democratic group which makes me skeptical. That said, given Colorado’s power blue hue and the strongly pro-D national environment that 2018 seems to be, it is rather intuitive that Weiser would be favored. Still, Republican success in statewide executive row office elections in Colorado makes me put this in the tossup column.

Florida: Open (Bondi)

Another open seat, incumbent Pam Bondi is term limited, which makes the Attorney General office one of the copious number of opportunities for Florida Democrats to finally break through at the state level. Democrats have State Rep. Shawn Shaw as their candidate, while Republicans chose former circuit court judge Ashley Moody as their candidates. Florida is a slightly Republican leaning swing state, but in a Democratic year like 2018, that makes this race clearly up for grabs. The polling has shown it tight with high undecideds, which makes for a pretty clear tossup race.

Michigan: Open (Schuette)

Bill Schuette is term limited and is running for Governor, leaving the AG role open in Michigan. Democrats haven’t won this office since 1998, when future Governor Jennifer Granholm took it home for Team Blue and they are looking to break that 20 year drought this fall. Democrats nominated Dana Nessel at their party convention, which I’m not entirely sure was the right decision. She is totally capable of winning the general election, having an extensive career fighting for LGBT rights including working on a case that was consolidated into the landmark Obergefell v. Hodges. Nessel herself is lesbian and despite this strong background her campaign ads have been a bit bumpy and she’s facing a very legitimate candidate in Tom Leonard, the Speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives. Leonard has a lot of cash-on-hand, and he’s quite clearly the strongest Republican statewide candidate in Michigan in 2018. Of Governor/AG/SOS, this is probably the race Democrats are feeling least confident about and the GOP is feeling most optimistic about. That use of optimistic is important though, because the polling we have suggests that the pro-D state winds in Michigan may be so overpowering that Nessel rides to victory, and perhaps rather easily. Again, high undecideds are cause for caution but the Democrats seem favored in this race right now.

Minnesota: Open (Swanson)

Three-term incumbent Democratic AG Lori Swanson decided to run for Governor after she failed to get the DFL endorsement at the state convention, a decision that was very bad in hindsight, both for Swanson and the party. This created a free-for-all for the Dem nomination for AG, with a number of names in the race. Democrats had multiple solid options but they chose the worst one in US Rep. Keith Ellison. Ellison is problematic due to a history of potentially questionable comments, the fact he may be too liberal for the statewide constituency, and lingering questions about domestic abuse allegations. Any other Democrat would have started off as a favorite for the general election against State Rep. and lawyer Doug Wardlow (R), an equally problematic candidate. Wardlow’s past is that of a far-right extremist you might find in a place like Alabama, not Minnesota. Thus in a matchup of Wardlow and Ellison, there are going to be a lot of voters who will be perplexed about who is worse. In a year like 2018, I would expect the Democrat to probably win the election, but boy the DFL regrets nominating Ellison and putting this race into the tossup column.

Ohio: Open (Mike DeWine)

Yet another open and running for Governor instance, Republican Mike DeWine is running in the closely contested gubernatorial election this fall, which means the AG office is up for grabs. Republicans are running the current State Auditor, Dave Yost, for this office, and as already a statewide elected official, he has a strong profile. The Democrats are running Steve Dettelbach, the former United States Attorney for the Northern District of Ohio, a pretty typical profile for someone looking to attend to state Attorney General. This figures to be an expensive race, with Yost having $3.42 M in the bank, while Dettelbach boasts $4.03 M. It also figures to be a close race, with Ohio’s GOP lean being cancelled out by the pro-Dem national environment. And that fact makes it a tossup.

Nevada: Open (Laxalt)

The run of open AG’s offices continues with Nevada, where first term Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt is also running for Governor. Like Colorado, Nevada is a state where Democrats have struggled to win state-level executive row offices, but the AG role presents them an opportunity to change that. Team Blue is running State Senate Majority Leader Aaron Ford, who was seen as a candidate to challenge Dean Heller for Senate before he decided to run for this office. Republicans are running former State Rep. Wes Duncan. In the matchup of these two, I would guess that Ford is the favorite due to the national environment and candidate quality. However the dearth of polling in this race make me leave it in the tossup column.

Wisconsin: Brad Schimel

Our first incumbent tossup seat, Brad Schimel won the AG role in 2014 by a 52-45 margin, a margin that basically mirrored the national environment of that dreadful midterm year. This time he will be running against the wind in a bid for re-election and Democrats have made it a top priority to try and defeat Schimel. They’ve drafted federal prosecutor Josh Kaul to run against him. Kaul has a notable bloodline, being the son of former Wisconsin Attorney General Peg Lautenschlager, the last Democrat to serve as Wisconsin AG. We have one poll of this race, from Marquette Law, and it had Schimel leading Kaul 48-41. That suggests that Schimel has a slight edge but Kaul was not at all well known according to the poll, which gives him some room to grow in a state ripe for a Democratic turn around. Overall, Kaul is raising enough money to make this a tossup and while Schimel will perhaps start as a small favorite due to incumbency, the national environment lands this in tossup.

Lean R: AZ

Arizona: Mark Brnovich

Our only Lean R seat features Incumbent Republican Mark Brnovich, who won his first term in 2014 by a 53-47 margin. That was a rather narrow margin for a historically red state in a pro-GOP Midterm year and it shows some potential vulnerability. Democrats are trying to finally break through in the desert this November and Brnovich will be one of the targets, though probably not the top target. Former assistant Attorney General and Obama administration official January Contreras is the Democratic candidate and she’s been running an okay race. Brnovich leads the only poll we have by a solid margin, but he’s not at all out of the woods, hence the Lean R rating.

Likely R: GA, SC, SD, TX

Georgia: Chris Carr

Carr is the incumbent Attorney General, though he was not the AG last time around. Carr was appointed to fill the AG vacancy left when Sam Olsens retired to become President of Kennesaw State University. As a result, Carr is only a pseudo-incumbent, never having faced statewide voters before. His opponent is prosecutor Charlie Bailey, who seems fine. This race has the potential to be more competitive, but Georgia is a difficult state for Democrats and so until we get an indication that it is narrowing, we’re leaving it in Likely R.

South Carolina: Alan Wilson

South Carolina is a red state with a two-term incumbent Republican AG. None of that would appear competitive, but incumbent Alan Wilson has gotten himself in some trouble relating to the Quinn family, a family of politicians and lawyers who are under state investigation for corruption. Since 2015, Wilson has spent a fair bit of campaign money on the Quinns’ law firm, and that raises both ethics but also conflict of interest questions. This made him attract a pair of GOP primary challengers and he scraped by with under 50% of the vote to be renominated. Democrats are running Constance Anastopoulo, an ethics professor, to be their candidate, which is a pretty shrewd move. In a state with a large black population that gives Democrats a high floor (about 40%), they don’t need that many conservative white voters to cross over, which creates a narrow window where the Quinn scandal could take down the incumbent. Still a long shot, but it’s something to watch.

South Dakota: Open (Jackley)

Republican AG Marty Jackley decided to run for Governor, losing the primary to Kristi Noem, which leaves this office open for anyone to grab. South Dakota is a very, very conservative state, but Democrats have occasionally been able to win statewide in the past (Tim Johnson, Stephanie Herseth, Tom Daschle) and they have a good candidate for this race. That would former US Attorney for the District of South Dakota Randy Seiler. Republicans have attorney and veteran Jason Ravnsborg as their candidate, and he starts out as the clear favorite in a state like South Dakota, but it’s on the horizon as a potential dark horse race.

Texas: Ken Paxton

Finally we have the Lone Star State, featuring incumbent Republican Ken Paxton. Paxton won in 2014 pretty decisively, by a 59-38 margin. Since then, he, like Wilson, has run into some scandal issues, related to his handling of securities, with a state grand jury indicting him on three accounts, two of which being securities fraud. He was also sued by the SEC over this, though that case was dismissed. Paxton is still awaiting the state-level trial and this has hung over his campaign for re-election. It has also opened the window for Democratic attorney Justin Nelson to emerge as a serious threat in the general election, even in a very tough state for Democrats like Texas. We have two polls of this race within single digits and with Paxton nowhere near 50%, and after Lt. Gov., AG may be the Democrats’ second best shot to snare a statewide office in 2018. Still, given the partisan lean of the state, Paxton is a considerable favorite.

Safe R: AL, AR, ID, KS, NE, ND, OK

Bottom Line