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“The outlook is clearly weaker now than it was in January,” the Bank of Canada said. “As the situation evolves, Governing Council stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required to support economic growth and keep inflation on target.” The central bank said markets were functioning well, and that it would “ensure that the Canadian financial system has sufficient liquidity.”

But if not for the Fed, the Bank of Canada might have opted for a smaller quarter-point cut. All things equal, lower interest rates will stoke demand for mortgages and policy-makers already worry that Canadian households are carrying too much debt. Poloz and his deputies noted that consumption was stronger than expected in the first quarter, easing concerns that an important engine of economic growth might have been sputtering.

Yet, external conditions trumped all other considerations. A gap between U.S. and Canadian benchmark rates could have put upward pressure on Canada’s currency, or simply introduced more volatility in the exchange rate. Either would only add to the current trials of exporters.

“The Bank of Canada felt compelled to avoid letting the interest-rate differential with the Fed get any wider than it already is,” said Darcy Briggs, who oversees a bond portfolio at Franklin Bissett Investment Management in Calgary. “If it hadn’t moved, there would have been a lot of people scratching their heads.”

Briggs and some others think the Bank of Canada would have had to cut rates even if COVID-19 had remained in China. The Canadian economy stalled in the fourth quarter, and is now growing at a pace that poses no risk to inflation. For some, that means policy-makers should push the accelerator to get the economy back to its speed limit. Poloz and his deputies have resisted doing that, because they doubt the gains would justify the long-term risk of re-starting a credit binge.