That research found that over a year, Australia's GDP would fall by $2.3 billion while 20,000 full-time equivalent jobs would disappear as the $9.2 billion spent annually by Chinese tourists and students declined. PwC Australia chief economist Jeremy Thorpe said for tourist areas already affected by this season's bushfires, the impact would be noticeable. PwC chief economist Jeremy Thorpe says the coronavirus outbreak, on top of a soft economy, drought and bushfires is just more bad news on bad news. Credit:Daniel Munoz The university sector would also face issues if students, due for the start of semester at many institutions next month, were unable to return for their studies. "We've had a soft economy, the drought, the bushfires and now this virus. It's bad news on top of bad news," he said.

Loading "The small business sector, which makes up a large part of the tourism sector, and the universities are the most exposed from this going on." Mr Thorpe said it would be too early to determine a possible impact to the budget. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has already flagged the government expects a hit to this financial year's surplus, with at least $500 million to be spent on assistance to bushfire-affected communities. That was before the coronavirus outbreak. Economists expect the impact of the bushfires to show up in the March- and June-quarter national accounts. Already some retailers have reported sharp falls in sales through the pivotal Christmas-Boxing Day period.

Chinese tourist arrivals fell by 9 per cent in the months of the SARS virus through late 2002 and early 2003, while they dropped by 12 per cent in the immediate wake of the global financial crisis in 2008. On both occasions, tourist numbers recovered relatively quickly. At the time, Australian tourism operators were more dependent on visitors from other countries but since then China has become the nation's main tourist source. Chinese police officers outside the Tianenmen gate in Beijing. Credit:Getty Over the past year, Chinese arrivals have been relatively flat at about 120,000 a month. They are most important to the NSW, Victorian and Tasmanian tourism markets. Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews said the virus would "no doubt" have an economic impact although he expected it to be small.

Loading "Travel advices and warnings are all matters that are dealt with by the Commonwealth government … but I expect this probably [has] had very little impact at this point,” he said. CommSec chief economist Craig James said while the number of Chinese visitors was likely to fall because of the virus, more Australians might decide to take their holidays at home in what would deliver a small boost to local operators. Mr James was doubtful there would be a significant impact on exports, noting that during the SARS outbreak the biggest impact was on the movement of people rather than goods. But he did think it could weigh on consumer confidence, potentially compounding uncertainty across the country after months of bushfires.

The Reserve Bank board meets next week, with markets putting the chance of a rate cut at one in five. That pricing was before the extent of the coronavirus outbreak was known. However, the RBA previously has been hesitant to change monetary policy settings due to a disease. In 2003 during the SARS outbreak, it noted the virus and its potential impact on the Australian tourism sector but kept interest rates steady. Oxford Economics senior economist Tommy Wu said the coronavirus could potentially be a "high impact, short-lived event" similar to the 2003 SARS outbreak. Those countries dependent on Chinese tourist visitors such as Hong Kong, Thailand and Vietnam would be at particular risk while the virus was likely to hit the overall Chinese economy.