But Rupp also acknowledges that some of the projected declines are “undoubtedly part of the aftermath of last fall.”

In particular, recruiters working in the Chicago area are more frequently hearing the same concerns from prospective students, she said.

Those concerns are tied to the growing perception of Mizzou as a national symbol for strained race relations.

“Because those students are geographically removed from the campus, they don’t really have a sense of what’s going on and they are relying on what they are seeing and hearing in the media,” Rupp said. “And it’s not particularly positive.”

According to the university’s data, applications from out-of-state student have seen some of the sharpest declines. Among those students, deposits toward tuition are down 25 percent since last year.

But there are also barriers toward luring students from within Missouri, perhaps especially in rural areas.

Rupp said potential students in those areas were offering “more conservative viewpoints,” including opinions on Melissa Click, an assistant professor who gained infamy during the campus protests of last fall.