If you live in Michigan and still hold out hope that new factory jobs will bring high pay and middle-class benefits to the state, it's time to reset expectations.

That scenario is not going to happen - at least if that vision involves workers with no education beyond high school.

"The mass middle class used to be high-paid factory workers," said Lou Glazer, president of Michigan Future Inc. "Today, a lot of those (unskilled) jobs aren't high-paying."

The problem for Michigan, he said, is that both political parties still tout bringing factory jobs back as a solution for residents wanting more middle-class job options, without outlining the skill level. That's happening even as the state's payroll fell an inflation-adjusted 3 percent from 2005 to 2015.

While that drop may not sound critical, a longer view of Michigan income adds depth to the changes. The state's per capita income fell 16 percent from 1999 to 2015, leaving it at $27,405. During that same time, we went from 4 percent above the per capita income for the entire United States to 8 percent below the national average.

Michigan workers still are losing ground as manufacturing sheds jobs here. It dropped 68,000 jobs from 2005 to 2015, representing the sector with the highest number of jobs lost - most unskilled. Health care even replaced it as the top employment sector.

That's a painful transition for anyone who recognizes that factory jobs laid the foundation for the state's middle class generations ago, as people with - and without - high school diplomas made careers on automotive-related assembly lines.

"People in Michigan still have that vision of what success looks like," Glazer said. "High-paid factory work. They have not let go of the fact that it's not coming back."

Yet residents also hear two other messages: one, that new and expanded manufacturing operations are adding jobs here. And second, that Michigan workers will find opportunity in the field.

Both are true.

"We still need to make things," said Gov. Rick Snyder, explaining that he's "doubled-down" on manufacturing. "I think there's good opportunity in manufacturing ... the rate is slowing, but there are still positives there."

But here's the catch, which Snyder defines: "When you look at the ratio of unskilled to skilled (jobs), the level is dramatically different."

A glimpse inside many newer Michigan factories will show clean surroundings, lots of machinery and high-tech equipment.

But not as many people.

Automation - along with its sidekick, improved productivity - rule the day in today's manufacturing centers. Repetitive tasks increasingly are done by robots. Humans are needed to operate or program that equipment, repair it and read data.

So while Michigan continues to try to attract and retain manufacturers, that effort will be less and less likely to result in low-skilled factory jobs.

That's why forecasts of 875,000 openings in U.S. manufacturing jobs comes with an asterisk: Those jobs will be machinists, welders, industrial mechanics and industrial engineers.

And it's also why the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics is marking many basic production jobs as 'declining' by 2026. These days, a machine setter or team assembler works for around $30,000 per year, the BLS says. A CNC machine tool programmer, by comparison, is on the fastest-growing job list, earning up to $55,000 per year.

Charles Ballard, an economist at Michigan State University said he's met former factory workers whose entire job classification is gone. "All have been replaced by machines," he said.

"Any job that involves simple, repetitive tasks - and a lot of those were in the auto industry - have gone away," Ballard said. "If they haven't gone away, they're certainly endangered.

"And if they exist at all, they have lower wages."

How much lower may surprise someone who still considers unskilled factory work a middle-class career.

Envision a 40-hour, five-day work with mandatory overtime on a 6th day. A shift that can't be changed. A possible 7th day added to the mix. And a commute to a suburban or exurban location, with health benefits and some paid time off included.

That job may offer a starting pay of $11.50 per hour.

"It's still hard work," Glazer said. "It's not an attractive job anymore. You certainly can't raise a family on it."

Shift the location to an entry-level Detroit Three production line, and pay may go up to $16 per hour or so.

But here's where it gets interesting: Add some skills to the mix, and both pay and likelihood of the job surviving pending rounds of automation accelleration will increase.

"Most of the really good jobs require a four-year degree," Glazer said, noting that creating an economic cluster of talent is the best bet for Michigan to attract both high-paying jobs and prosperity.

But good jobs also exist in manufacturing. They involve specific skills, often accompanied by a certificate from a training school or community college. They're filled by people who understand technology and its place in production. They pay more than $50,000 per year. And, Snyder said, they're less likely to involve a layoff during the next economic downtown. Employers, he said, won't want to let them go.

That is the message that state officials, educators and even the manufacturing industry want Michigan to recognize - and act upon. Just finishing high school won't be a qualifier for high-paying factory work. Today, or in the future.

"Jobs that don't require an advanced education are just disappearing," Glazer said. "... That trend is going to continue for a long time."

Over the course of the next several months, MLive will explore issues of economy, education and infrastructure, and what Michigan leaders need to do to create a better future. We'd love to hear from you, about your struggles and your wins, as you navigate Michigan's economic landscape. We want to use your voice and your questions to frame the conversation with candidates as we head into midterm elections. Have a story to share, send us an email to michiganbeyond@mlive.com