Last week’s #SunBeltHeat was a mixed bag. On the one hand, the Sun Belt collected one (1) victory. On the other, the victory was against quality Group of Five foe, Southern Miss. Thanks, Troy! Against the Power Five, the Heat was mostly chill, with Washington State dropping Idaho, #25 Miami humbling Appalachian State and #24 Arkansas treating Texas State like a bye week. But Georgia State nearly came alive against #9 Wisconsin and New Mexico State traded epic punches with Kentucky before falling late.

It was a mixed bag.

In Week 4, the Sun Belts trades Shots At P5-Upset Glory with a Big Pile of Take’n Care of Business. On the docket: two games with the FCS, two with the MAC, two with the AAC and one with the Mountain West. Four of five peer-conference contests take place away from home turf, but the toughest match-up, Cougars vs Bobcats, is hosted at friendly confines.

This is a hot week for #SunBeltHeat; one that pits the Sun Belt against some of the very best from peer conferences. How the Sun Belt performs in Week 4 may define the conference’s success for 2016.

Remember, #SunBeltHeat is derived by the following top secret formula that was developed by sports scientists and sorcerers in a secret laboratory beneath the Mercedes Benz Superdome:

P5 Condescension x ESPN3 + Righteous Fury / “Any given Saturday” = #SUNBELTHEAT

As always, #SunBeltHeat can only be administered to non-Sun Belt opponents and is programmed to become self-aware sometime in the 32nd century.

Appalachian State vs Akron, September 24th, 2:30 PM CST, ESPN3

Chance for winning (ESPN FPI): 69.9%

The Mountaineers had every reason to feel cocky about hosting #25 Miami in Boone. But Brad Kaaya is a pretty good quarterback, Mark Richt has coached a few big games, and the Hurricanes wound up trucking Appalachian State 45-10. Before heading into a concentrated dose of Sun Belt play, Tyler Lamb and Co. square off against The Zips, picked to finish 3rd in the MAC East by USA TODAY and recently coming off a very big win against Marshall. Akron signal caller Thomas Woodson has already hurled 10 touchdowns for nearly 900 yards, giving the Mountaineers secondary another huge test. Oh yeah, and Marcus Cox might be injured. But if there are two things MAC teams aren’t accustomed to it’s 1) a healthy appropriation of wintertime sunlight, and 2) the clever machinations of Mountaineer’s head coach Scott Satterfield. WE’RE BRINGING THE SUN AND THE SATTERFIELD, ZIPS! What Appalachian State refuses to bring, of course, is mercy.

Sun Belt Heat Index: a 10% “Seething Satterfield” Tax assessed to each of Brad Kaaya’s touchdown tosses

Adjusted Chance for Winning: 99.9%

Georgia Southern vs Western Michigan, September 24th, 6:00 PM CST, ESPN3

Chance for winning (ESPN FPI): 12.5%

You know who’s feeling pretty good about themselves? Georgia Southern! This isn’t unusual, of course. Nobody loves the Eagles more than the Eagles. But Georgia Southern is off to an undeniably nice 3-0 start, 2-0 in conference. Now the Matt Breida Show gets bussed all the way to Western Michigan (not to be confused with Eastern Michigan or Central Michigan or Michigan or Michigan State), who are picked to win the MAC West this year. Since destroying Savannah State 54-0, the Eagles have dispatched South Alabama 24-9 and squeaked by ULM 23-21. The Broncos, who are also 3-0 with wins over Illinois and Northwestern, represent a significant Level Up. Still, nobody vibrates atoms with more sizzling confidence than Georgia Southern, who rank third in the nation in rushing and first in moxie.

Sun Belt Heat Index: 1,000% on pure confidence

Adjusted Chance for Winning: 1012.5%

Central Arkansas vs Arkansas State, September 24th, 6:00 PM CST, ESPN3

Chance for winning (ESPN FPI): 81.5%

What if I told you Arkansas State racked up 12 yellow flags against Utah State on Friday night – in the first half! What if I added that the Red Wolves were also hit with eight motion penalties, including a false start on the Aggies 1 yard line? It’s true! The Red Wolves have now collected 34 penalties in 3 games for a total of 248 yards. Penalties aren’t Arkansas State’s only problem, but a cleaner game would help this Saturday when in-state contemporary Central Arkansas visits Jonesboro. The Bears, by no means a guaranteed win for the Red Wolves, do one of two things for A-State: A) give Arkansas State the jolt of of confidence they so desperately need, or 2) send Red Wolves fans into a collective coma that will dramatically increase health insurance rates in north east Arkansas.

Sun Belt Heat Index: 15% + 100% for “no way we lose to an in-state FCS program PLEASE GOD NO!”

Adjusted Chance for Winning: 196.5%

Nicholls vs South Alabama, September 24th, 6:00 PM CST, ESPN3

Chance for winning (ESPN FPI): 92%

South Alabama instantly became the darlings of the Sun Belt by upsetting Mississippi State 21-20 in Starksville – then immediately lost two conference games to Georgia Southern and Louisiana, verifying that Mississippi State is a mid-level Sun Belt school at best. The Jags are getting it done through the air with 276 passing yards. But the ground game (80.3 yds, T-125th) is supposed to be better. Xavier Johnson is only toting the rock for 2.4 yds per carry. That leaves sophomore QB Dallas Davis and his stud tight end Gerald Everett doing most of the work. And that should be enough against Nicholls! THIS IS THE FCS-BREAK THE JAGS NEED TO RESTORE ORDER TO THE UNIVERSE! Except, the Colonels had a 3Q lead on Georgia during its season opener, but surly that won’t futz with Joey Jones’ head. Right?

Sun Belt Heat Index: 5% because “Nickels”

Adjusted Chance for Winning: 97%

#6 Houston vs Texas State, September 24th, 6:00 PM CST, ESPNU

Chance for winning (ESPN FPI): 5.2%

Wouldn’t Texas State upending Houston on its march to the College Playoffs just ruin everything? I mean, all this time we’ve screamed about the validity of the G5 and how the system is unfairly weighted to the Power Five and oops! here comes Everett Withers and the Bobcats who didn’t get the fax about letting the Cougars saunter into history! That would just upset the apple cart, right? Let me tell you something, sporty: #SUNBELTHEAT HAS NO MERCY, PATHOS, OR SENSE OF HISTORY! #SUNBELTHEAT’S MASTER IS #SUNBELTHEAT. HEATERS GOTTA HEAT!

Sun Belt Heat Index: 94.8% because “heaters gotta heat.”

Adjusted Chance for Winning: 100%

Louisiana vs Tulane, September 24th, 7:00 PM CST, ESPN3

Chance for winning (ESPN FPI): 27.9%

The Cajuns brought zero Heat to Boise State to open the season, but has since rattled off two business-wins against McNeese and South Bama. The powerful Mark Hudspeth can thank the mighty Elijah McGuire for the victories, who rattled off 139 and 223 yards in the wins. Now Louisiana takes on a Tulane team that’s 128th in the nation for passing (55.7 yds) but 11th in rushing (274.3 yds). Unbalanced the Green Wave is. One look at Tulane’s 7-3 loss to Wake Forrest tells you that the Cajuns can expect some solid defense and very little offense from the Green Wave. But if there is five things Hudspeth enjoys most, they’re 1) jumping jacks, 2) bench presses, 3) Aliens vs Predator, 4) six cans of tuna for dinner, and 5) beating up tough defenses with a ball-hoarding running game.

Sun Belt Heat Index: 2.1% plus Aliens vs Predator Rotten Tomato Score (21%)

Adjusted Chance for Winning: 51%

Idaho vs UNLV, September 24th, 8:00 PM CST, (NO VIEWING AVAILABLE)

Chance for winning (ESPN FPI): 14%

At the time if this writing, the Vandals are still in the Sun Belt after having endured a worse loss to pitiful Washington State than it did to powerful #8 Washington. Of course, these are the conundrums of time, space and logic that define Paul Petrino, a coach whose next mission is to out-puzzle the Rebels in Las Vegas. Like the Vandals, UNLV is 1-2 with a victory against FCS competition, and yet the Rebels are overwhelming 15-point favorites to send Idaho back to Idaho with another big L. NONSENSE! HAVE YOU NO UNDERSTANDING OF #SUNBELTHEAT? GOOD NEWS! THE SHAME OF DEFEAT PROVIDES INSTANT UNDERSTANDING, REBEL SCUM!

Sun Belt Heat Index: 86% FOR ALL CAPS CONFIDENCE

Adjusted Chance for Winning: 100%

Sun Belt Games For Which #SUNBELTHEAT Does Not Apply

New Mexico St vs Troy, September 24th, 6:00 PM CST, ESPN3

ULM and Georgia State are taking a time out