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“I don’t think 2014 is going to be a big advance over last year,” said David Gray, principal at the Vancouver-based agency. “Sales moved so fast from almost zero in Canada in 2010, I think we are already starting to see a bit of a peak. The industry and media pundits have created a focal point around this, and it has created heightened expectations among shoppers.”

But the expectations of great deals often exceed the value of the deals themselves, Mr. Gray said, because retailers are not ready to offer too many items at a deep discount this early in the season. “You will see a few key items at a decent discount and some door-crashers, but there will not be much breadth to it.”

The industry and media pundits have created a focal point around this, and it has created heightened expectations among shoppers

While Canadian retailers were ostensibly forced four years ago into mimicking the U.S. shopping event under the threat of cross-border shopping, only 2% of Canadians actually made a trip across the border last year on the day after U.S. Thanksgiving, DIG360 found, a figure consistent with prior years. That is expected to hold firm or decline this year given the lower Canadian dollar.

It comes amid predictions for a tepid holiday sales period this year.

Canadian holiday retail sales are expected to grow 3.3% this year compared to Christmas 2013 season, according to a forecast from Ernst & Young, fairly weak in light of inflation and 2013’s rise of just 2.8%, when Eastern Canada was pounded with a severe ice storm that resulted in several lost shopping days.

Deloitte’s estimate is even more conservative, predicting a rise of 2% to 2.5% for holiday 2014. That raises the competitive stakes among retailers such as Walmart and Target, which is weighing its future Canadian business strategy on its holiday performance.