ERIE -- The saying once went, "When General Electric gets a cough, Erie gets pneumonia."

Now, after years of manufacturing losses and layoffs at companies like GE here, the adage rings somewhat hollow.

Region: Northwest

Instead, the city by the lake finds itself on a continuing quest for post-industrial identity, one that has so far revealed a newfound emphasis in the fields of health care and higher learning but also a troubling rise in the local unemployment rate, which grew by 2,000 people or roughly one-and-a-half percentage points this year. That rate also continues to eclipse state and national averages.

"People are scared and they're not happy," said Karen Moski, a Democratic State Committee Member and Executive Director at Hospice of Metropolitan Erie.

"We need family-sustaining jobs. ... I'm a health care administrator and what I see are people struggling. It's very sad, actually."

It is against this backdrop that some Republicans see an opening in the traditionally Democratic enclave of Erie and surrounding Erie County come November.

This as Donald Trump's campaign has spent the last year conquering political opponents, in large part by harnessing a nation's roiling blue collar angst. Erie County, or so the thinking goes, is a natural setting for such disaffection, and possibly for such a candidate.

There are hurdles, however. Democrats currently outnumber Republicans here 95,000 to 65,000, although the ratio is changing in the GOP's favor, ever so slightly. And there is also the entrenched influence of labor unions, which continue to be almost exclusively Democratic mechanisms.

But this is also an election year defined by identity politics and the bridging of longshots, leaving some convinced of Erie County's crossover potential. It is a belief rooted in the suburbs, where fence-sitting Democrats could yield new ground for Republicans this fall.

Before a Trump rally here in August, Dr. Michael Federici, a political science professor at Mercyhurst, told yourerie.com that he believes the county could decide the election in Pennsylvania this year, which could in turn decide the race nationally.

"It's not exactly urban. It's not exactly rural," Federici said. "So it's a good barometer for what happens in the state as a whole."

"If you can win Erie County," he concluded, "you probably can carry the state."

Republicans are counting on it.

'Not this year'

For as long as anyone can remember, Erie County has been the reliable Democratic oasis in the sea of Republican red painting Pennsylvania's northwest.

Historically, its role has hinged upon the high numbers of registered Democrats and Democrat-heavy unions in the city of Erie, the county's most populous municipality.

But labor's influence may be waning now, or possibly splintering this election, while the city's population shrinks and the suburbs around it grow. Erie's union numbers were described as stagnant as recently as 2014, while nationally, labor's numbers continue to fall.

In addition, since 2008 the number of Democrats in the county has fallen by 7,000 while the number of Republicans has grown by around 3,000. It's far from a tectonic shift, but could be emblematic of the county's ongoing political evolution.

Enter the 2016 presidential race.

Locally, Republican campaign organizers say the Democratic-leaning suburb of Millcreek Township, for example, is "very competitive" this year in both state and presidential elections.

Millcreek is the second largest municipality in the county and, behind the city of Erie, the traditional reason for the county's blue political lean.

If 2012 is any indicator, though, there is plenty of ground to make up. That year, president Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney were separated by nearly 19,000 votes county-wide, with Obama taking home 57.8 percent of the vote and Romney just 40.9 percent.

But if enough of the township's ambivalent Democrats and Independents were persuaded to vote Republican this year, along with some of those from the city, it could tip the balance.

At the Erie County Republican Party's headquarters on a recent Tuesday, representatives said the evidence, both anecdotal and otherwise, suggests it can be done.

Chris Gorndt, a volunteer, was seated behind the office's front desk, amid a crush of yard signs and beneath a Donald Trump mask watching from its perch atop a book shelf packed with campaign T-shirts.

Trump campaign merchandise is displayed at Erie County (Pa.) Republican Party headquarters. Photo by Colin Deppen.

Gorndt was watching too, as one visitor after another came in to declare their support.

Robert Valimont was one of them. He entered the office as one of 3,300 registered Independents in Erie County and left a registered or soon-to-be registered Republican once the paperwork clears. According to the Department of State, 2,300 Democrats have gone Republican in Erie County this year, along with 860 non-Democrats; while just 818 Republicans and 1,313 non-Republicans have gone the other way.

Valimont explained that as an Independent he typically voted Republican anyway, but felt compelled to get more involved this year. Before leaving he asked Gorndt for a Trump-Pence yard sign, which she promptly retrieved from a stack at her feet. Valimont handed her a $2 donation in return, tucked the sign beneath his arm and headed out the door.

As it shut behind him, Gorndt chimed in, saying Valimont, a waste management employee, epitomizes the plentiful blue collar support for Trump in the area, and the same signaling a possible changing of the guard countywide.

"I don't think any Democrat can just assume they're going to get elected here anymore," she added, surveying the room and reordering the stack of yard signs at her feet.

"It's always been a given," she added, "but not this year."

Terra firma

Even in Democratic circles here, there is no denying Trump's appeal. You can't drive down a county road without encountering reminders lined up on the berm and outside homes like so many planted flags. The same holds true in surrounding counties like Crawford and Warren, both terra firma for Republicans historically.

Asked if she believed that Trump's "America First" message was resonating locally, Moski said, simply, "I'm afraid it is."

She cites the migration of manufacturing brands like Zurn Industries -- a maker of toilets, faucets and waste water treatment systems -- which moved its headquarters out of Erie last year, as well as the closure of International Paper's Hammermill plant in 2002.

"Now it's a wasteland," Moski said of the former plant site.

But while in agreement that Trump's campaign might be striking a chord with some voters for this very reason, talk of a Republican coup is met with far more skepticism. Like the Republicans, Democrats here believe the research favors their chances in the fall, or at least dispels the likelihood of any Democratic exodus. And unlike the Republicans, there is a sense that history is on their side.

"It seems to be leaning heavily Democrat now in terms of the candidates running," Erie County Democratic Party chairman Bill Cole said.

"People say they're going to support Katie McGinty and Hillary Clinton and the rest of the Democratic ticket. ... It's gone that way the last few elections."

But having certainly sensed the pull of Trump's populist message, Democratic candidates on the fall ballot have tailored their message, vowing as well to make the restoration of Erie's manufacturing base a priority if elected.

Coupled with that message is a return to the grassroots, get-out-the-vote campaigning and door-knocking in inner-city neighborhoods that helped secure Obama's victory here just four years ago, Cole said.

Perhaps working against that goal is the fact that while Trump has visited Erie this year, Hillary Clinton has not.

Bill Clinton, Chelsea Clinton and running mate Tim Kaine have all stumped here on her behalf, but Hillary herself has yet to make an appearance and by all accounts won't, as she focuses on portions of the state traditionally considered less secure, or those with larger populations.

Cole is confident, though, that the Clintons' longstanding favorability in Erie will carry over.

"When Bill was running [for president] the first time, he came here and didn't get here till one o'clock in the morning and he had 6,000 people waiting for him," Cole remembered. He added that it was upon seeing the Erie crowd assembled on the far side of midnight that Clinton first said to himself: "I think I'm going to win the presidency."

The fisherman bloc

Seated above a choppy Lake Erie in a steady wind on Tuesday, Dennis Mansfield was explaining his plan to vote for Hillary Clinton when the fishing rod in his hand suddenly sprang to life.

He went silent and after moments of frenzied reeling pulled a six-inch perch from the water and up onto Dobbins Landing.

"We usually like to get them a little bigger than that," he laughed, before returning to his thoughts on the presidential race.

Dennis Mansfield of Erie fishes on Lake Erie on Tuesday, Sept. 20, 2016. Photo by Colin Deppen.

"I'm supporting Hillary because she's got the experience," he said.

"Trump is a multimillionaire and he's trying to do what he thinks is right. But I don't agree with the wall between the U.S. and Mexico. ... It's like putting a wall between the U.S. and Canada. No way."

He continued to say he trusts Clinton more with national security decisions because she's "been out there. She knows what's going on and there's no fooling her."

He concluded, "If she didn't have any of that experience, I wouldn't vote for her."

Mansfield is a registered Democrat but voted against Obama in 2008, believing at the time that he was too inexperienced to handle what is arguably the toughest job in the world.

"But I'll give it to him. He did a good job," Mansfield finished, before tossing his hook back beneath the waves.

A few feet away, seated on an overturned bucket, a Vietnam veteran from Conneaut Lake named Al Thom was eavesdropping.

Thom said he's undecided but leaning toward Trump, citing the candidate's vow to restore military spending and American jobs.

He explained that while previously a registered Democrat, he went Republican when Trump decided to run.

"He's got a lot of good ideas about getting jobs back in this country and fining companies for sending jobs overseas," Thom said of Trump, explaining that he's waiting for the presidential debates before making a final decision.

"But that Hillary is a pretty smart cookie," he added.

Farther down the landing, Charles Wiggins of Erie said as a lifelong Democrat he supports Hillary, believing she's simply more qualified.

Cole and other Democrats are counting on just that kind of support and party loyalty, believing the city is far from ready to shed its label of Democratic stronghold.

"We've lost some major plants around town," Cole said. "General Electric has cut back and they're cutting back even now. We have a lot of small plastics firms, but they're not hiring 5,000 to 6,000 people [like the others did]."

He continued: "But [Trump's promise to restore manufacturing jobs] we've been through that with enough different candidates before, and [the voters] know what it's going to take and him saying he's going to bring jobs back isn't it."

Cole said Trump's use of overseas manufacturing for some of his namesake products also hurts his chances in a place like this.

"We got strong labor here, so they know that and they're aware of that. That isn't gonna sell here."

But across town, Gorndt said it is the Democratic Party's failure to restore jobs in Erie despite its near total monopoly on city offices -- Cole said the city hasn't had a Republican mayor since the 1960s nor a Republican member of council since 1985 -- that may have some ready to abandon the brand.

It's not clear, though, to what extent that shift might extend down ballot. Senator Pat Toomey's refusal to endorse Trump, for example, appears to stand between him and any possible embrace from Trump's more diehard devotees.

"In the inner city, Democrats have been taking it for years and years and years and there's no jobs and no things helping the people who live there," Gorndt said.

Meanwhile, Moski said it's still early, with voters like Al Thom waiting for the presidential debates to reach a decision.

But regardless of where they fall or where Erie's electorate winds up, one thing remains the same and certainly will beyond November's balloting.

"The cornerstone issue is employment," Moski said. "We need jobs."