Donald Trump’s visit to California will generate a memorable image: the president inspecting prototypes of his planned border wall.



Four years after he first proposed a wall, an idea that helped vault him to the White House, he will on Tuesday finally be able to touch solid concrete on some of the eight barriers, 30ft tall and 30ft wide, arrayed in the desert outside San Diego.

Congress may yet stymie construction of a wall along the frontier with Mexico but Trump will at least have a photo-op to accompany vows to deter and expel undocumented migrants, rhetoric which electrifies his base across the United States.

California’s Republican leaders, however, may view this political theatre very differently: as the equivalent of a man sawing a tree branch on which they – and he – all sit.

Bashing immigrants elicits nativist GOP cheers outside the state but in California it could doom GOP candidates in November’s midterm elections – and hand Congress to the Democrats.

“He’s gaining cheap applause outside California at the cost of real seats in California. It’s not a good trade,” said Jack Pitney, a Claremont McKenna University political scientist and former GOP congressional aide.

“California is a convenient Republican punching bag. But punching bags don’t like getting punched. Trump’s presence [here] will remind voters in swing districts about what they have come to loathe in the Republican party. His visit will motivate turnout among Hispanic voters and anger progressive white voters. There’s no way his presence will be a plus to candidates in difficult races.”

The blowback would be especially costly if a blue wave in California helps Democrats regain control of the House and leaves Trump more vulnerable to impeachment.

Regardless, the White House has ratcheted up a feud with the US’s most diverse, populous state.

Last week, the justice department sued California over so-called sanctuary policies that try to protect undocumented migrants from deportation.

During a visit to Sacramento, the attorney general, Jeff Sessions, accused Democratic officials of obstructing federal immigration enforcement efforts.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice) agents have sowed panic and anger recently by sweeping up farm workers and 7-Eleven employees.

Video of agents dragging a mother from her screaming children near San Diego drew more denunciation and millions of views on Facebook.

Such tactics please Trump supporters – including some in California – who voted for him on the promise of curbing illegal immigration. But analysts say the crackdown will further marginalise California’s beleaguered GOP.

Republican voter registration has slumped to 25%, on par with the number expressing no party preference. Democrats monopolise statewide offices and dominate the legislature.

California is a big reason Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and now once solid Republican redoubts, especially in Orange county, may topple in the midterms. Two incumbents, Darrell Issa and Ed Royce, have decided to not run.

Trump’s immigration policies are repeating a cycle California saw in the mid 1990s when Republicans cracked down on undocumented migrants only for courts to push back and Latinos to rise up, turning the state of Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon into a Democratic bastion.

GOP candidates, however, cannot renounce Trump without alienating Trump-adoring activists and donors. The president’s visit will oblige them to do a delicate dance, close but not too close.

“All Republicans incumbents face this as a challenge. They cannot run against the president and need the financial resources that the Republican base can provide,” said Louis DeSipio, a politics professor at the University of California, Irvine.

When the Orange County Register asked 11 GOP candidates to rank Trump’s performance only four agreed, the rest declining to respond or saying it was too early in his tenure.