BABIP Files: Identifying Potential Sleepers and Busts at Third Base

I think it’s time we skip the pleasantries and get right to it. By this time you’ve read The BABIP Files for Catcher, First Base, and Second Base. You know we’re trying to identify potential sleepers and busts by comparing a player’s 2014 Batting Average on Balls in Play, to the BABIP numbers they put up in the previous five years. BABIP Differential is a simple idea really; just a quick peek to see if 2014 looks out of line with their career norms. Once we’ve identified some BABIP outliers we can look a little deeper at their batted ball data to see if there is anything in their peripherals that could explain the extreme BABIPs.

After some discussion on Twitter I do want to make one thing clear though. When I say five-year BABIP history, for some player’s that’s a bit misleading. A younger player, say Kolten Wong, does not have five years to go off of. In those cases I’ve just used whatever history they have to compare 2014 against. It can make some BABIP Differential numbers less meaningful, so I’ll try to point those cases out in the notes below the table. With that in mind below is the data for the third basemen of 2014 that I deemed Fantasy worthy in most Fantasy formats. As always I like to go deep enough to keep you AL an NL-only people happy, because I’m one of you. Make sure you check out the notes below the table for additional insight.

2014 BABIP Differential for Third Basemen

Name 2014 AVG 2014 BABIP 5-Year BABIP BABIP Diff Justin Turner .340 .404 .296 .108 Juan Uribe .311 .368 .283 .085 Josh Harrison .315 .353 .275 .078 Steve Tolleson .253 .336 .264 .072 Brock Holt .281 .349 .282 .067 Conor Gillaspie .282 .325 .263 .062 Lonnie Chisenhall .280 .328 .274 .054 Casey McGehee .287 .335 .284 .051 Don Kelly .245 .299 .248 .051 Luis Valbuena .249 .294 .258 .036 Adrian Beltre .324 .345 .311 .034 Cody Asche .252 .315 .287 .028 Trevor Plouffe .258 .299 .274 .025 Todd Frazier .273 .309 .286 .023 Danny Valencia .258 .317 .295 .022 Aramis Ramirez .285 .310 .299 .011 Kevin Frandsen .259 .289 .279 .010 Anthony Rendon .287 .314 .307 .007 Kyle Seager .268 .296 .290 .006 Martin Prado .282 .310 .307 .003 Manny Machado .278 .317 .316 .001 Nolan Arenado .287 .294 .296 -.002 Ryan Zimmerman .280 .313 .319 -.006 Mike Aviles .247 .271 .279 -.008 Pablo Sandoval .279 .300 .313 -.013 Chris Johnson .263 .345 .361 -.016 David Freese .260 .330 .347 -.017 Evan Longoria .253 .285 .304 -.019 Matt Dominguez .215 .244 .264 -.020 David Wright .269 .325 .346 -.021 Pedro Alvarez .231 .277 .299 -.022 Will Middlebrooks .191 .273 .295 -.022 Kelly Johnson .215 .266 .291 -.025 Xander Bogaerts .240 .296 .323 -.027 Chase Headley .243 .301 .332 -.031 Matt Carpenter .272 .318 .351 -.033 Josh Donaldson .255 .278 .313 -.035 Juan Francisco .220 .297 .333 -.036 Marcus Semien .234 .310 .348 -.038 Brett Lawrie .247 .260 .300 -.040 Mike Moustakas .212 .220 .274 -.054 Freddy Galvis .176 .198 .263 -.065 Mark Reynolds .196 .218 .286 -.068

Positive BABIP Differential

Let’s take a deeper look at a few of the players BABIP Differential seems to indicate are due for a fall.

Juan Uribe – Let’s just use Uribe’s 14 big league seasons and say another .311 batting average is highly unlikely. If he can reach 2013’s .278 be happy.

– Let’s just use Uribe’s 14 big league seasons and say another .311 batting average is highly unlikely. If he can reach 2013’s .278 be happy. Josh Harrison – Mr. Harrison has some ‘splainin’ to do.In 532 at-bats prior to 2014, Harrison has hit .250 with 7 Hrs, and 13 SBs. What are we to make of his .315 AVG, with 13 HRs and 18 SBs in 520 ABs in 2014? That .078 BABIP Differential is pretty huge. Is there anything in his peripherals to explain it? It’s a little contradictory to be sure. Harrison did increase his LD% over five percent to 24.0, but he also hit more fly balls and few grounders than in 2013. In fact his 2014 batted ball data is similar to what he did in 2012 when he hit .233. To add some icing on the crapcake, he also struck out at a career-high 14.7% rate. To be blunt there’s not a chance Josh Harrison comes close to what he did last season.

– Mr. Harrison has some ‘splainin’ to do.In 532 at-bats prior to 2014, Harrison has hit .250 with 7 Hrs, and 13 SBs. What are we to make of his .315 AVG, with 13 HRs and 18 SBs in 520 ABs in 2014? That .078 BABIP Differential is pretty huge. Is there anything in his peripherals to explain it? It’s a little contradictory to be sure. Harrison did increase his LD% over five percent to 24.0, but he also hit more fly balls and few grounders than in 2013. In fact his 2014 batted ball data is similar to what he did in 2012 when he hit .233. To add some icing on the crapcake, he also struck out at a career-high 14.7% rate. To be blunt there’s not a chance Josh Harrison comes close to what he did last season. Brock Holt – Prior to 2014 Holt had 124 at-bats so there’s no real baseline here. He’s unlikely to post a 26.4 LD% again, so that batting average may fall a bit. Still the scout in me likes his swing and says Holt is a solid hitter who should put up passable numbers in a limited role. AL-only leaguers need to hope he gets some middle infield eligibility to be of much use though.

– Prior to 2014 Holt had 124 at-bats so there’s no real baseline here. He’s unlikely to post a 26.4 LD% again, so that batting average may fall a bit. Still the scout in me likes his swing and says Holt is a solid hitter who should put up passable numbers in a limited role. AL-only leaguers need to hope he gets some middle infield eligibility to be of much use though. Conor Gillaspie – Though his power was down from 2013, Gillaspie had himself a mini-breakout last season and was a useful player in deeper formats. Unfortunately much of the batting average bump looks BABIP related and at age 27 there’s no real upside. Feel free to use him in AL-only leagues, but a regression is likely.

– Though his power was down from 2013, Gillaspie had himself a mini-breakout last season and was a useful player in deeper formats. Unfortunately much of the batting average bump looks BABIP related and at age 27 there’s no real upside. Feel free to use him in AL-only leagues, but a regression is likely. Lonnie Chisenhall – Let me first say that I want Chisenhall to be good. I love his swing and see good things in it. That being said, Chisenhall’s .218 batting average in the second half is pretty indicative of his career thus far. He’s just an inconsistent player. I could see him taking an overall step forward in 2015, but there’s an equal chance of a complete bust. There’s nothing wrong with grabbing him late and hoping he slowly figures things out. Just be ready to jump ship if he starts out poorly.

– Let me first say that I want Chisenhall to be good. I love his swing and see good things in it. That being said, Chisenhall’s .218 batting average in the second half is pretty indicative of his career thus far. He’s just an inconsistent player. I could see him taking an overall step forward in 2015, but there’s an equal chance of a complete bust. There’s nothing wrong with grabbing him late and hoping he slowly figures things out. Just be ready to jump ship if he starts out poorly. Casey McGehee – Which player is McGehee, the middle infielder with a lower average and decent pop, or the third baseman with no power and a plus average? Steamer says a bad combination of both of the above, and I tend to agree. If he had middle infield eligibility, he might be of slight interest, bat at third base there’s not enough upside to justify rostering him in mixed leagues. 2014 was a nice story McGehee won’t be reliving.

– Which player is McGehee, the middle infielder with a lower average and decent pop, or the third baseman with no power and a plus average? Steamer says a bad combination of both of the above, and I tend to agree. If he had middle infield eligibility, he might be of slight interest, bat at third base there’s not enough upside to justify rostering him in mixed leagues. 2014 was a nice story McGehee won’t be reliving. Adrian Beltre – Another veteran where we don’t need to overreact to slight variance in his batting average. With Beltre I’m more concerned about age and injuries. He’s played 148 games or more in each of the last three seasons, but it always feels like he’s day-to-day. You obviously play Beltre in all leagues, but I believe there is increasing risk and for the price I’m probably looking elsewhere.

Negative BABIP Differential

And now a look at the second basemen that seemed to be on the unfortunate side of things in 2014.