The Westminster rumor mill is on fire with the expectation that British Prime Minister Theresa May faces an imminent vote on the floor of Parliament to oust her. I think that such a leadership vote is coming, but I also believe May will survive it.

First off, some context. The rumors on Tuesday follow the prime minister's cancellation on Monday of a planned parliamentary vote on her Brexit withdrawal agreement with the European Union. That decision sparked great dismay across Parliament. The BBC's chief political reporter notes that the leader of the "1922 Committee," which governs Conservative leadership contests, is now believed to have received letters from 48 — or 15 percent — of Conservative members of Parliament stating their lack of confidence in May. If this is correct, May is likely to face a confidence vote by Friday, originating from within her own Conservative party.



Hearing that SirGraham Brady has asked to see the PM after #pmqs tmrw, and multiple sources, including senior tories and a cabinet minister, telling us tonight they believe the threshold of 48 letters has been reached - v unlikely to be any confirmation until tomorrow — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 11, 2018



To survive, however, the prime minister need only win a simple majority of MPs. And that's why I think she survives. The simple issue in May's favor is that while she is not adored by many Conservative MPs, neither is she disliked. Most Conservative MPs view May as a boring but hard-working prime minister who is trying to manage a near-impossible task in negotiating Britain's positive Brexit withdrawal. These MPs know that May is more popular than the man they most fear: Labour Party opposition leader and far-leftist Jeremy Corbyn. The most recent leadership polls of the public suggest that while May's approval rating is only 35 percent, Corbyn is just 29 percent. What's also noticeable, however, is that May's personal rating has increased by a few points over the past few weeks. Most Britons seem to think that May is doing the best she can with a difficult hand. Conservative MPs who might otherwise oppose May fear that to challenge her now would be to risk aggravating the public and building momentum in favor of Labour's pressure to call a general election.

Moreover, it's not clear who from among the Conservative ranks would replace May. While this would only become relevant were May to lose a confidence vote, it bears close consideration. The complexities here are abundant. For one, while former foreign minister Boris Johnson is favored by those who want a deeper break from the EU than May now offers, many other Conservative MPs view Johnson as an unreliable eccentric. Other possibilities include the more-Brexit-moderate but charismatic MP, Sajid Javid. Again, however, many Conservatives fear that the public might reject the party for being seen to betray May.

For all these reasons, I suspect May will survive the coming vote. Still, it will be a close run.