Clegg’s idea for non-British EU nationals voting in an EU referendum: what are the implications?

Jonathan Lindsell, 31 March 2015

There are indications in the news today that the Liberal Democrats might be willing to give David Cameron his ‘red line’ 2017 referendum policy if a Liberal-Conservative coalition is the result of May’s election. Despite the Liberal Democrats being firmly pro-EU, they have not ruled out a referendum as Labour have. However, Nick Clegg intends to wring a high price for such an agreement, and he will probably have the bargaining power: his party is expected to hold 28-35 seats, enough to make Clegg kingmaker.

The first of these is a £3.5 billion commitment to healthcare, including specific tranches for mentally ill children and mothers suffering depression. The second is to allow non-British EU nationals currently resident in the UK and registered, to vote in the EU referendum.

With roughly 2.7 million EU citizens currently living in the UK, this could make a very significant difference. It is worth noting that polls of theoretic referendum voting intent suggest the ‘In’ side is in resurgence this year already, but only by a few points and excluding Northern Ireland. On the assumption that the majority of non-British EU nationals would vote ‘In’, Clegg’s stipulation (if reports are accurate) could certainly be seen as calculating. Business for Britain, a group campaigning for a referendum, calls the gambit ‘a cynical attempt to stack any future vote on one perceived side’.

What might Clegg’s reasoning be?

On one hand, it feels uncomfortable that foreign nationals should have a say – perhaps a pivotal one – on a long term constitutional issue. On the other hand, the outcome of the vote could seriously affect them. There is considerable precedent in EU nationals having a voice – they can vote in local and European Parliament elections, in elections to the Welsh and Northern Irish Assemblies, and to the Scottish Parliament (if they reside there). Most notably, EU nationals were able to vote in the Scottish independence referendum – a precedent just a few months old, and arguably of even greater constitutional significance than EU exit.

In any case, 800,000 Irish voters in Britain would be eligible regardless of party disputes. This is not trivial – Irish politicians are making increasingly worried comments about Brexit, and Prime Minister Enda Kenny has set up a contingency unit for that eventuality. For comparison, Commonwealth citizens (including Cypriots and Maltese) usually get full franchise in the UK when they’re granted indefinite right to remain.

Given the uncertainty of this year’s election, it’s worth exploring the prospect of an EU referendum with Europeans voting. European voters did not win the ‘Out’ vote in Scotland, and could be wooed in an EU debate too – certainly the sceptics of France or Germany, the radicals of Greece or Spain, many of whom are UK resident. This might simply require a confident model for exit that reassures migrants that they will remain welcome, and that relations with their home countries will not deteriorate. Most Brexit models already enthusiastically endorse free trade and globalism, so this is not an insurmountable challenge.