James R. Carroll

WASHINGTON - Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul has climbed to early front-runner status in the fight for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, according to a new NBC News-Marist Poll.

Paul is tied in Iowa and leads the potential 2016 GOP field in New Hampshire, the survey finds. Those are the two critical states that are first in the nomination process.

The senator, who has said he is considering a presidential bid, also has higher favorability ratings than any other Republican in both states, the poll says.

"Rand Paul is your early Republican front-runner," write Chuck Todd, Mary Murray and Carrie Dann of NBC News.

In the Iowa survey, 66 percent of Republicans have a favorable impression of Paul. The next-highest favorability rating - 63 percent - belongs to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

But just 50 percent of Iowa Republicans view New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie favorably, while 33 percent view him unfavorably. For Paul, only 18 percent of Republicans view him unfavorably.

In the overall field for the first-in-the-nation caucuses, Iowa Republicans and those intending to participate in the GOP caucuses gave 12 percent of their support to Paul and 12 percent to Bush, according to the poll.

Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan has 11 percent, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum 9 percent, Christie 8 percent, Texas gov Rick Perry, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio each have 7 percent, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has 5 percent, and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal 1 percent.

In New Hampshire, Paul leads Christie 14-13 percent among registered voters planning to vote in the GOP primary and registered Republicans. Bush is next at 10 percent, followed by Cruz at 9 percent, Ryan and Rubio at 7 percent each, Walker at 6 percent, Perry at 5 percent, Jindal at 4 percent, Santorum at 3 percent.

As in Iowa, New Hampshire Republicans have a better opinion of Paul than the other possible GOP candidates: a whopping 71 percent had a favorable view of the Kentuckian.

Bush is viewed positively by 65 percent of Granite State Republicans, but Christie is viewed favorably by just 52 percent. Rubio has a favorability rating of 58 percent, while Cruz and Walker each have 50 percent favorability ratings.

Only 15 percent of New Hampshire Republicans view Paul unfavorably, the poll indicates. By contrast, 31 percent of the state's Republicans have an unfavorable impression of Christie; 20 percent have an unfavorable view of Bush.

Another interesting part of the poll shows Paul's strength in head-to-head match-ups against Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton, the former secretary of state.

In Iowa, a theoretical 2016 general election contest looks like this: Clinton 45 percent, Paul 45 percent.

In New Hampshire, Clinton leads Paul by just three points: 46 percent to 43 percent.

"Yes, the NBC/Marist polls show a crowded and wide-open field in Iowa and Hampshire," Todd, Murray and Dann concede in their "First Read" Thursday. "And, yes, they even show Mr. Undecided leading in both (20% in Iowa, 22% in New Hampshire)."

"But note that Paul has the highest favorable ratings in Iowa and New Hampshire. Note that he appears at the top of the early horse race fields in those two states (when you eliminate Mr. Undecided). Note he runs best against Clinton in both Iowa and New Hampshire," they add.

"And note all of the other things he's done in the past six months -- hire Rick Santorum's former campaign manager, team with Cory Booker on legislation, and espouse a foreign policy that's more popular with the public and even a plurality of Republicans. To borrow a NASCAR analogy, Paul has earned the pole position before the real race begins. Make no mistake: We're unsure he can withstand half or more of his party trying to take him down (a la what happened to Howard Dean in late 2003). But he's your early GOP front-runner."

Doug Stafford, executive director of the senator's political action committee, RANDPAC, said in an email the polls "show consistently...that Senator Paul's message is resonating across the board, from conservative Republicans and independent voters who are looking for new ideas."

"It is important for Republicans to find a way to show new ideas and solutions, and Senator Paul is leading the way on that," Stafford said.

On the Democratic side, the survey shows Clinton is by far the top choice of most Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire, with Vice President Joe Biden a very, very distant second.