The latest Guardian Essential poll shows two-party-preferred lead over the government has blown out to 54% to 46%

This article is more than 1 year old

This article is more than 1 year old

Labor has extended its lead over the Morrison government after a horror political fortnight, and the Coalition’s trenchant campaign against key opposition revenue measures, such as negative gearing and dividend imputation, does not seem to have gained much traction with voters.

The latest Guardian Essential poll shows Labor’s two-party-preferred lead over the government has blown out again to 54% to 46%. A fortnight ago Labor was ahead 52% to 48%, which suggested a tightening in the contest.

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In the latest survey of 1,032 respondents, which follows a thumping electoral loss for the Liberals in the recent Victorian state election, and the defection of Julia Banks to the cross bench, Labor’s primary vote sits on 39% and the Coalition is on 38%.

Despite the latest poll indicating Labor would easily win an election held today, Morrison remains 11 points clear of the Labor leader Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, with 40% of the sample rating him ahead of the Labor leader, and 29% backing Shorten.

Morrison’s approval ratings were also steady, with only small movements during the past month; 42% approved of the job Morrison was doing as prime minister, up one point from last month, and 34% disapproved, down three points.

Shorten’s approval stands at 35%, down three points in a month, and 43% disapprove of his performance, down one point.

With the Coalition attempting to unleash a negative political campaign against two of Labor’s major revenue measures in the run up to the federal election, a crackdown on negative gearing, and ending cash refunds for imputation credits – voters were asked in the latest survey to express their views on both policies.

Asked whether they thought restricting negative gearing to new homes would increase house prices, lower house prices or make no difference, just under a quarter of the sample said restricting negative gearing would lower house prices (24%).

A further 21% said the changes would increase house prices and the largest percentage – 27% – thought it would make no difference. Older people, over the age of 65, are the cohort most likely to think overhauling negative gearing would not impact house prices (35%).

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Asked about the impact on rents, 37% said Labor’s proposal would lead to increased rents, 14% said lower rents, 24% said no difference and 26% didn’t know. Drilling down a bit further, Labor voters were more likely to think restricting negative gearing would lower rents (20%), whereas Coalition voters were more likely than others to this it would increase rents (49%).

Voters were also asked about Labor’s dividend imputation policy, which 39% of the sample supported and 30% opposed. In March 2018, 32% of the Guardian Essential sample approved of the proposed change and 30% opposed it, with 37% saying they didn’t know.

In the latest survey, the cohorts most supportive of the change were voters under 34 (54%), Labor voters (50%), Greens voters (49%), full time workers (46%), people with a household income of over $78,000 (48%) and those who are university educated (46%).

Older voters are less happy. Those most likely to oppose the idea are 55 or over (42%) and Coalition voters (44%).

The prime minister has entered the final parliamentary sitting week of the year battling political adversity on multiple fronts.

Morrison on Monday had to cajole the Liberal party executive in New South Wales to rubber stamp the preselection of the outspoken conservative Craig Kelly, who threatened to go the crossbench if he was dumped.

The government has also been forced to adjust its much vaunted energy package to take account of the criticisms of a number of Liberals that imposing a divesture power on the energy sector offends basic principles of economic liberalism. The revised package will go to the Coalition party room on Tuesday.

With Malcolm Turnbull still highly visible, and causing angst for his former colleagues, the Liberal party room also had an unscheduled meeting on Monday night to change the rules governing the election of the party leader in an attempt to limit the scope for future leadership spills.

The Liberal party room resolved that future prime ministers could only be removed from office after winning an election with a two thirds majority, an acknowledgement that the coup culture is eroding public confidence in major party politics.