Bureau of Meteorology says prospect of drier-than-normal October is about 70% in southern Australia which comes after third-driest September on record

This article is more than 4 years old

This article is more than 4 years old

El Niño conditions are set to intensify across much of Australia, with extremely dry conditions expected to heighten the risk of drought and bushfires, the Bureau of Meteorology has said.



The bureau has updated its outlook for the rest of the year after Australia experienced its third driest September on record, with large parts of Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania getting very little rain.

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The chance of a drier than normal October for southern Australia is about 70%, with the probability rising to 80% in Victoria where the state government is attempting to find ways to get water to parched areas in the west of the state.

El Niño is a periodic climatic event in which waters of the eastern Pacific warm, triggering a slew of weather changes around the world. In Australia it is associated with reduced rainfall and warmer temperatures.

The current El Niño, which will last throughout the summer, is considered one of the top four on record in terms of strength. It has been balanced by another trend, the Indian Ocean dipole, in which warmer waters off Indonesia help bring moisture, and therefore rain, to Australia.

But the bureau said this had changed in the past eight weeks, with waters in the eastern Indian Ocean now 1C cooler than normal. The warmer waters are now found off Africa, bringing rain to countries such as Somalia.

“We’ve had these two systems competing against each other, but now the El Niño is being reinforced – the wetter influence is being overrun by the drying influence of El Niño,” said Andrew Watkins, climate predictions manager at the bureau.

“This means that the odds of a dry October are very strong, at a time that is very important for agriculture and also bushfires. We have already seen fires in Victoria, which don’t normally happen until summer, so that’s not a good sign.”

Hundreds of bushfires have broken out in Victoria over the past week. Two homes, two sheds and two vehicles were confirmed destroyed on Wednesday from a 4,000-hectare blaze near the town of Lancefield. The fire started from a planned burn-off, prompting an independent inquiry.

Melbourne had its warmest early October day on Tuesday, with temperatures reaching 35C. Sydney and Adelaide have also experienced a string of days over 30C before cooler conditions moved in.

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The bushfire and natural hazards cooperative research centre has forecast a greater than normal risk of bushfires across much of south-east Australia this year, with climate change making fire seasons longer.

“While summer is usually the time associated with the highest bushfire risk in the southern states across Australia, bushfire seasons are starting earlier and lasting longer,” said Richard Thornton, the centre’s chief executive.

“We know from research on recent large fires that many people living in high-risk bushfire areas are still under-prepared and ill-informed on the dangers and the preparations needed.”

The bureau said waters in the eastern Indian Ocean should start to warm again in November, bringing a slightly better chance of rain in Australia in November and December.

“Our model suggests there will be more even odds in terms of dry conditions in November,” said Watkins. “But given the strength of El Niño, it would be difficult to bet on a wet end to the year. There will be average rainfall at best.”