What’s that, me writing an analysis for something on the day it was shown? It’s older than you think!

Video here (uploaded by Persona Central), Reddit discussion thread here.

Translations here, Reddit thread here.

This analysis will be different from the others considering this is raw and “concrete” gameplay as I’ll mostly be looking at what this means for the other theories covered in my past write-ups. Let’s begin!

The footage starts with the same opening as the game all the way up to the cover tutorial. (As an aside, we now have shaded character portraits when people talk directly to Joker, as opposed to the original’s blank text boxes.) However, instead of seguing directly into a cutscene once Joker climbs the stairs, he runs into another corridor with a guard in his way.

The game uses this opportunity to introduce the wire mechanic which lets Joker take an alternate route to the exit. Considering how important the wire is (Kasumi even teaches us how to weaponise it via Rank 4 of her Confidant) it makes sense that it makes a showing here. Futaba tells us to run ahead, only for us to end up in a large empty room.

If you’ve seen past trailers you probably recognised it and knew what would happen before the cutscene started! Joker is surrounded, but is saved by Kasumi who takes out three of the six before the two start a proper battle against the remaining three (who turn into Shadows). After the fight, Kasumi and Joker talk for a while before she leaves. Joker runs up the stairs at the other end of the room…and synchronises back up with the original series of events leading to his capture.

[Edit: You may already know this from my past analyses, but the Metaverse now adds a kaleidoscopic effect to the edges of the screen outside of cutscenes, which you can see in effect throughout this footage too. This may be due to the Casino being more vibrant than the back rooms, but the effect is stronger at the beginning; neat!]

It’s the stuff with Kasumi that’s the most interesting here. First off, Futaba says she detected Kasumi’s signal earlier on, which tells us that Kasumi has been following them for a while. Has she been following them for the entire infiltration or just when they delivered the calling card? Makoto gave the card directly to Sae who informed her superiors, so it wasn’t a public affair like the cards before this point which means, if Kasumi is here because the Thieves sent a calling card, she either knew about the card somehow OR knew when the deadline was for Sae’s investigation to begin and that the Thieves would wait until the last minute to send it. In the latter case, even if she doesn’t know about the Thieves she would have to know what Sae was doing and enough about her personality to understand that’s when she would be at her most vulnerable.

(Edit: It’s also possible that she saw or caught wind of Akechi’s reinforcements entering the Metaverse. If so, was this just down to chance or does she have a way to spy on him/ the conspiracy? If the latter…who is she to have the ability to do that?)

I’ll come back to Kasumi’s dialogue in a bit, but I want to address Futaba and Morgana’s lines quickly. If you’ve been reading my analyses you may remember that we were never sure how many Thieves even knew Kasumi existed (let alone that she had a Persona) before this point. Kasumi’s trailer showed Morgana present when she Awakened and Futaba’s trailer started with a scene with Kasumi and Ren, but the latter had no date for that scene so we don’t know when it took place (since Ren wasn’t in his “in hiding” outfit, this could have taken place in the time between Shido’s Palace and the Mementos Palace…or even during the third semester!) Unfortunately this scene doesn’t answer this question as Futaba isn’t able to detect Kasumi herself, only her signal (Morgana is also confused).

At the very least, everyone else is almost certainly in the dark, which means one of the first screenshots we got (of everyone at the Mementos entrance including Kasumi, excluding Goro) must take place after this but before (a version of?) Goro rejoins the group. Since that screenshot is when Makoto notices the banners across Mementos, we know that this is when they first appear too – considering Sae’s Palace has no special significance in the greater scheme of things (and they seem linked to the new Palace), perhaps they only appear post-Yaldabaoth? And considering the banners trap Kasumi at some point in that Palace (as shown in PV03), perhaps they’re only here for her after all?

Now for Kasumi herself! We (maybe) saw her Awakening with Joker and Mona yet she had no blood on her face in her trailer – if we assume PV02’s intro is from the same scene, she gets a magical girl transformation sequence instead – and is incredibly proficient here. Of course Ann also had a cool moment when she first got her power, but Kasumi is much more sure of herself here – she knows what she’s doing as opposed to Ann acting out of instinct – she even seems to propel herself back with her first rifle shot so she can make the second! Is she just a natural (or applying her gymnastic skills), or has she been a Thief for longer than we think? Mechanically, she’s in her prime as well. I suspect the gameplay is fixed for this to happen, but she dodges the first attack (from Jatayu) sent her way and scores a critical hit against all three enemies right after – all showing just how powerful she is! (Incidentally you don’t see a cutaway of her face during her Vorpal Blade and the AoA screen is empty too, likely part of how the prologue obfuscates everyone’s identities.)

As a neat bonus, the music changes to Take Over when she makes her move, which is fitting since it’s the ambush music this time around…and she made her move by ambushing the guards! (And for those worried that the new songs will completely overwrite the old, the heist music is still Life Will Change.) Also, you may remember an early magazine showing Joker and Kasumi fighting alone against Jatayu – now we know where that screenshot came from! Is Jatayu exclusive to this encounter or a regular face in the Casino now?

[Edit: Speaking of Jatayu, it uses Garula against Kasumi. Is this coincidence, or is Kasumi weak to Wind? If so that’s surprising: as a contrast to Arsene I would have expected Cendrillon to be weak to Fire and/ or Curse instead (Arsene is weak to Ice and Bless)…]

Now for her dialogue.

The first cutscene has an extended version of the dialogue from Kasumi’s trailer: “Today I bid farewell to the me that always needed help,” followed by her acknowledging Joker as her senpai and promising to stand by him. (Apologies for the awkward translation of this line in the album: I was trying to match my words to those on screen, but Japanese syntax is very different to English syntax.) However, we already know these two know each other since he was there when she Awoke before (or Reawoke or pretended to Awaken).

Her lines at the start of the fight also tell us a bit about the timeline of events: she says it’s been a long time since they fought together and “long time no see”. The former is likely a reference to the fight following her Awakening (which also featured Morgana), but what does the latter mean? Later dialogue also implies they haven’t spoken (properly) for a while, but did she drop out of school entirely after getting her Persona? And was it because of her Persona (or finding out Ren was a Thief) or because the Palace they were in at the time was significant to her and she needed time alone to digest it? However they may have parted ways before, she is fully invested in helping Joker as her next line (“It ’s time for me to help my senpai. Let’s win!”) shows.

I already spoke about her skill in battle and her body language in the battle menus in a previous analysis, but even when talking to Joker she appears confident with her hand on her hip. And while she may be AI controlled to allow her to score her big Critical Attack (and because you haven’t had the “control multiple people” tutorial yet), being unable to control Kasumi here may also be because she isn’t a Thief – i.e. she may look up to you, but she isn’t following your lead at the moment. Finally, she only backflips once compared to Joker’s two before the AoA, which may be another indicator of how measured her movements are compared to everyone else.

She brings the fight to a swift end (I don’t hear a button press or anyone talking about it so I think the AoA is automatic here as it is the first time you perform one in the Castle) and thus brings us to the last new exchange of the prologue. Futaba interjects to tell Joker to hurry and flee and Kasumi echoes this sentiment, wishing him well in his duties as a Phantom Thief – though this is clearly an uncomfortable subject for her. She turns away and says she has no right to say this as a non-Thief, yet still hopes he keeps their promise before leaving.

We know Kasumi disapproves of the Thieves and suspected that she would refuse to join Joker at first as a result, which seems to be what happened. However, the two appear to have had a much more amicable disagreement than most suspected. While Kasumi doesn’t agree with the Thieves’ ways, it seems she’s accepted that they’re doing what they think is right – or at least that Ren is doing what he thinks is right or thinks he must do (considering she already knows he has it, perhaps he told her how he got his criminal record) – and will thus stand aside and let them do what they must though she herself refuses to take part.

Then what of the promise? Considering she feels bad saying it as a non-Thief (yet is still something she clearly cares about), I think she made Ren promise that once he achieved what he set out to do, he would hang up his mask and live a normal life. Not only would this solve her own moral quandry, it would also keep him safe, which again is something she cares deeply for. (Though considering she brings this up during a heist, it’s worth noting she could also be asking him for help with the new Palace OR to help/ let her save its Ruler her way, without taking any hearts)

(Edit: There’s a scene near the end of PV03 where Kasumi smiles at Joker in the middle of a white void: could she be smiling because Joker reminded her of their promise or kept his side of it in some way? If so, it could still be about giving up the Thief life (i.e. he could be saying “Let me do this one thing, then I’m done”), but could there be more to their promise than just that? She also makes a promise to Ren that she’ll be more reliable at the end of her own trailer, could this be a reference to that instead?)

Oh, and since this is the prologue, this must be an event that happens whether or not you complete her Confidant by this point, i.e. it doesn’t depend on whether or not you treat her well before it.

Also, I thought before that Joker looks suspicious of Kasumi here, but seeing the scene in full shows that he doesn’t suspect her of anything at all; he’s still just concerned about the Shadows surrounding him.

Going back to one of the reveal screenshots though, we know Kasumi joins the group eventually…but why? I suggested earlier that that scene took place after Yaldabaoth, which is the last thing the Thieves do originally. Could this mean the Thieves do plan on giving up that lifestyle, and meeting Kasumi (for the first time?) is a way of proving that? (Besides, they’d still need to thank her for saving Joker!) This would explain why Kasumi joins them for New Year’s but not any of the other group events we’ve seen thus far and why we never see her and Goro together outside the new Palace (here we assume that Goro is presumed dead in the Ship and only comes back in the third semester/ turns himself in after Yaldy too).

Speaking of which…

You may recall that Kasumi’s Confidant only has 5 Ranks. Whether or not her Arcana (The Faith) changes, I think this is the point when her other 5 Ranks will become available. Considering these all seem to be fixed events, I don’t think you need to reach Rank 5 with her before this point either – however far you’ve come with her, those last 5 will still unlock for you to complete over the third semester. (Goro’s fate probably is tied to his Confidant however, as a recent interview states that the original ending is still accessible: maybe he doesn’t return to take Ren’s place in prison if you didn’t Rank 10 him?)

In fact, the rest of her Confidant may unlock after the conversation in this footage! Remember that we will eventually play through this sequence again: we already have Arsene interrupting us the second time through, who’s to say a change to Kasumi’s Arcana (whether it transforms, flips over or simply unlocks) won’t happen too? [Edit: We also see Cendrillon here – she’s obscured like Arsene, but it’s clearly her, which adds more Support to the idea that we can’t max Kasumi’s Confidant at this point, since otherwise we could “defy canon” and have evolved Cendrillon at this point. Remember that (even if you got rid of him) Arsene only canonically evolves against Yaldabaoth.]

(Edit: Going back to Kasumi meeting the others in Mementos: if this is indeed when she joins the Thieves, it’s possible that she only now gets a codename. Maybe that’s why marketing hasn’t spoiled it for us yet? Given the focus on the rose of her belt here, I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s called Rose. She has the hair and eye colours to match too!

If we also accept that this moment happens after the Casino, remember her line in the original trailer about the public turning their backs on the Thieves – said as though she were one. The first time this happened was post-Okumura (the prologue confirms Kasumi isn’t around for this). The second was after the smear campaign by the Shido administration: does this mean Kasumi joins the Thieves before Shido’s Palace? In other words: as soon as Ren recovers, does he arrange this incognito meeting between the Thieves and the secret friend who saved his life and only then start looking for Shido’s last keyword/ the infiltration?

Poor thing deserved to know he was still alive too, assuming she didn’t do something supernatural to help him(?) as suggested elsewhere here…and hey, maybe her mysterious “own reasons” for working with the Thieves is simply to keep Ren safe? Or keep an eye on him, which could be both to keep him safe or for a more nefarious reason… )

Also…when does Kasumi get her Persona? She’s very friendly toward Ren in Hawaii (“Konichi…wa!“) so, while it’s possible the two decide to separate their friendship from their knowledge of the Metaverse, I think she gets Cendrillon after that trip, which gives us one side of our time frame.

For the other we have her line here (on November 19th): “Long time, no see.” A “long time” is subjective as proven by the Sonic franchise , but I think this means Kasumi got Cendrillon before the Casino infiltration started (October 30th). For context, this is a 20 day gap…which is admittedly pretty big for two people as close as Kasumi and Ren seem to be, now that I think about it.

On the other hand, Kasumi could get her Persona just after the Okumura Palace ends, which is on October 11th. Considering the time from here to the start of the Casino is pretty cutscene/ exam heavy – with the Metaverse unavailable until Haru returns – this would be a suitable time for Cendrillon’s debut too. In fact, this would be the perfect time: the Thieves completely swear off Metaverse activities until Haru recovers (her father dies on the 11th), so no one would be around or notice if Ren, Morgana and Kasumi wandered into a Palace – hence the three of them being alone in her trailer!

Haru’s mourning and everyone’s subsequent time-out would also give Ren and Morgana an additional reason to stay quiet about the Palace beyond a potential request from Kasumi – after which Sae, Shido and Yaldabaoth become too important to ignore – which would give it the time it needs to morph into the final dungeon of the game as previously suggested. (If we assume the scene with Kasumi in Futaba’s trailer is from after her Awakening though, we can be sure that they at least make an exception for her.) If this is the case, Kasumi would leave for 4~5 weeks, which I think is long enough for her to miss Ren by the time they reunite.

(Edit: Also, remember that at this point the Thieves as a whole have just been accused of murder. Even if she believes in Ren’s own innocence (i.e. thinks he was unable to stop it from happening or overrule the others), she may still be uncomfortable about her senpai associating with possible murderers, hence parting ways with him until deciding to trust and repay him here.)

And if we assume she disappears completely, what is she up to? Is she just digesting all she learned (learning her idol is something she hates would be enough to debilitate her by itself) or did she spend those five weeks trying to navigate the new Palace by herself (which she must do in secret, because no way would any of the Thieves who know about her let her do that) and/ or trying to change its Ruler’s heart in the real world? And is failing this why she has a breakdown in the middle of it as shown in PV02? (Also, is trying to solo a Palace why she’s so refined and confident in this Palace?)

As an aside, if we assume Kasumi is a secret from the group until after Sae’s Palace (or even post-Yaldabaoth) it’d explain why she’s been missing from almost everyone’s Character Trailers: how could they interact with her if they don’t even know she exists? This also seemingly confirms her Show Times are with the two people she does get to know outside of the Metaverse: Ren and Goro (the trio were shown together in an early screenshot, which is also where the exchange from the teaser trailer comes from). Finally, we know Goro aims his gun at someone in the new Palace. If he’s aiming at someone he doesn’t trust, couldn’t it be the one he hasn’t spent enough time with in the Metaverse to understand fully/ try to shoot earlier, i.e. Kasumi? (Edit: This may even be tied to the shot we’ve seen twice now of a shocked Kasumi losing her Thief form at night, leaving her outside in what appears to be a winter outfit – which also suggests this happens in the new Palace…where she also seemed to have a breakdown to boot!)

(Edit: Since she isn’t a Thief at this moment, does that mean she doesn’t know what the Thieves’ plan is at this point in time? In other words, did Ren tell her he would have to fake his death, or will she think he committed suicide? If so, I imagine she’d be the first to text him once he returns to Leblanc (or would run over to check on him in person, maybe even interrupting the debrief with Sae or arriving earlier still).

..but remember the start of the reveal trailer and how Kasumi seemed to hijack Goro’s assassination attempt? What if that wasn’t a recreation after all, and Kasumi interrupted the actual scene in an attempt to save Ren? I’ve talked about the new banners in Mementos as Kasumi maybe being the cause of them (they’re even absent from the recent gameplay demoes we’ve seen of Mementos set earlier in the game) – perhaps this act of reality-warping is what creates them?)

A messier analysis than usual, but I hope you like it! As always, please tell me what you think and what I can add/ fix!

We’re only a month away from P5R’s Japanese release, and that’s assuming retailers don’t break the street date. Remember to remove all Persona related stuff from your YouTube Watch and Search Histories and unsubscribe from everyone who even mentions the word “Persona”. The YouTube algorithm is a mysterious thing and there’s no telling what deranged logic it’ll use to decide the video you most want to watch right now is “PERSONA 5 ROYAL TRUE ENDING: MORGANA KILLS RYUJI 4K 120FPS!!!” or something. Be careful! Granted, the Japanese seem much more humane about spoiler etiquette, but Persona 5 did end up a pretty big deal, so YouTube may just recommend it because it’s popular too. Maybe just avoid the site entirely for the first week of November.

I don’t know if we’ll get any more trailers, and even if we do the trailers right before something comes out are usually the more spoileriffic ones so…well, if you’re worried about spoilers this may be a good time to go dark. I was actually going to skip this video myself, but Persona Central’s article had Kasumi on the thumbnail so I figured I may as well see everything else it had to show. Thankfully this was the literal beginning of the game, so I don’t mind that particular spoiler (besides, I got to analyse it for all of you!) but stay alert!

So…this may very well be the end of these analyses. I initially had a lengthy message here but I think a shorter one will be better in case there is another trailer down the line, so let me just say: Thank you all so much for your support! It means so much to me!

As always, please feel free to check out the masterpost containing all other P5R information here (Reddit version here). And if you have any loose change, feel free to donate via the link here. Again, thank you all your time and support. I hope you liked reading this! Redditors, feel free to comment over there and make things easier for yourselves 🙂

Big Edit: u/RJE808 made a video about the prologue and raised some points that I missed:

The transition of Joker running out after the first battle has changed: where the default “Joker jumps down and runs across a changing background” played in the original, here we instead get the “paper gets scrunched up and thrown away” animation normally used for cutscenes. Is this just because this is a prologue or is this another case of the game being streamlined?

The map of the back rooms has changed. Specifically an extra room has been added to the right, which is where the wire tutorial occurs (needless to say, the remaining content is brand new so the map for the new floor is as well).

RJE pointed out that an earlier trailer had a shot of Kasumi in her school uniform crying – perhaps that’s her reaction to Ren’s “suicide”? It’s possible we’ll get the old anime cutscene of the Thieves reacting to his “death,” then see an in-game scene of Kasumi’s reaction (and her sorrow would only be made worse since the last thing we would see before that is Ryuji’s “We got ’em”). Perhaps the scene will then continue to show her going on the warpath (or at least trying to save or protect Ren?)

Until next time?

P.S. Something that likely won’t affect anyone other than me: if we take as given that Kasumi only joins after the Casino Heist (maybe to make sure Ren doesn’t get into trouble again after what happened the last time she left him alone ), this also justifies her absence from PQ2 while keeping it canon. As for her not being in the epilogue…well, passing over the obvious answer of “she left the team (for innocent or malicious reasons)” or “she died,” well, maybe she just turned up late or was off-screen the whole time? Or maybe her being absent from the epilogue isn’t too big a plot hole since nothing story-heavy happens in it? (Anyone who’s completed PQ2 will hopefully understand what I mean.)