Green Party Leader Elizabeth May (MP, Saanich-Gulf Islands) speaks with reporters to present facts to counter Alberta's heavy lobbying campaign ahead of next Tuesday's release of the Trudeau administration decision on the Trans Mountain pipeline in Ottawa on June 14, 2019. iPolitics/Andrew Meade photo

The federal Greens and Liberals are locked in a close race in Victoria, with the incumbent NDP not far behind in third place, according to a new Mainstreet Research poll for iPolitics.

Elizabeth May’s Green Party was the top choice of 22.9 per cent of respondents in the survey, with the Liberals and NDP close behind at 20.8 and 19.3 per cent, respectively. Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives drew the support of 14.3 per cent of voters contacted for the poll, while Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada (PPC) grabbed 2.9 per cent.

Furthermore, 18.3 per cent of respondents said they were undecided, while 1.4 per cent opted for an unspecified other party.

According to Mainstreet, the margin of error for the 575-person phone survey, conducted Aug. 9-10, is plus or minus 4.09 percentage points at the 95 per cent confidence level. It was completed before the release of the ethics commissioner’s report on the SNC-Lavalin affair, which was published yesterday.

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The Victoria riding, centred on the B.C. capital, has been held by the NDP since 2006, with Murray Rankin taking over as MP in a 2012 byelection where he narrowly fended off a spirited Green Party challenger by less than three percentage points. Rankin, who’s not seeking re-election in the fall, won in the 2015 general vote by a more comfortable 9.46-point margin over Green candidate Jo-Ann Roberts.

The Liberals and Conservatives finished third and fourth, respectively, winning nearly 12 per cent of the vote apiece.

For the 2019 vote, Racelle Kooy is running for the Greens in the riding, while Laurel Collins is representing the NDP, Richard Caron for the Conservatives and Alyson Culbert for the PPC.

No candidate for the riding is listed on the Liberal Party website.

David Anderson held Victoria for the Liberals from 1993 to 2006. He served as environment minister under prime ministers Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin from 1999 to 2004.

May represents a neighbouring riding, while the only other Green MP in the House, Paul Manly, also represents a Vancouver Island district.

According to the Mainstreet survey, the Greens led narrowly among both men (23.1 per cent) and women (22.7), as well as with 18- to 34-year-olds (31.6). The Liberals finished in the runner-up spot among men (20.8 per cent) and women (20.7) but led among 35- to 49-year-olds (28.5) and people 65 and older (26.8). The NDP led among 50- to 64-year-olds (24.5), while the other best performances by demographic band were with women (21.4 per cent), 18- to 34-year-olds (18.8) and people 65 and older (21.2).

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The Conservatives drew the support of 18 per cent of male voters, 25.5 per cent of 35- to 49-year-olds, and 15.6 per cent of voters 65 and older.

When including leaning voters, the Green lead shrinks to one point, with the environmentalist party up on the Liberals 26.6-25.6 per cent, while the NDP jumps up to 20.9 per cent, the Tories move to 16.3 per cent and the PPC rises to 3.3 per cent. The undecided segment shrinks to 5.8 per cent.

And finally when undecided voters are excluded, the Greens lead the Liberals by 28.3-27.1 per cent, while the NDP sits at 22.2 per cent, the Conservatives at 17.2 per cent, and the PPC at 3.5 per cent.

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