By Caitlin Huey-Burns - June 10, 2014

With the majority of potentially damaging primary races now in the rearview mirror, the Republicans' Senate campaign arm had this message for donors this week: "What a difference a year makes."

Republicans feel stronger than ever about their chances of taking control of the upper chamber, two years after divisive primaries and disastrously run campaigns helped Democrats bolster their majority. With competitive 2014 races in Iowa, Montana, South Dakota, North Carolina, West Virginia, Arkansas, Colorado and elsewhere now in general election mode -- and with establishment-preferred candidates as standard-bearers -- party operatives are breathing an audible sigh of relief that they not only didn’t screw up but that they also put Democrats on their toes.

“Last summer, our friends at the DSCC wrote that divisive primaries and a failure to ‘expand the map’ would leave only a half dozen competitive states to determine the Senate majority,” National Republican Senatorial Committee Executive Director Rob Collins told donors in an email, first shared with RCP. “Today, Republicans are in a strong position … and we are proud of the candidates who are running.”

Collins said the committee has one goal: “to win the majority.” While the map favors Republicans, wresting control of the Senate from Democrats appeared to be a taller order at the start of the campaign season. While the most vulnerable Democrats up for re-election this cycle represent conservative states President Obama lost in 2012, those incumbents are tested, well-financed and pros at distancing themselves from their party and its leaders. Senators like Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Mark Begich of Alaska also have the valuable advantage of family ties to public service in their states. These and other Democratic candidates are running localized races aimed at inoculating them from an unfavorable national climate, while also backing Senate legislation aimed at turning out key members of the party’s coalition who might otherwise to stay home.

But Democrats in tough Senate races have constantly had to deal with curveballs from the administration, most recently with controversy at the Department of Veterans Affairs, proposed new regulations from the Environmental Protection Agency, and the recent Bowe Bergdahl prisoner swap that increased tensions between lawmakers and the White House. The president’s low approval rating isn’t expected to help, either.

Still, Republicans aren’t yet in the clear. The party has had to unexpectedly work overtime in red Mississippi, where incumbent Thad Cochran is in an uphill runoff election for his seat against Tea Party-backed Chris McDaniel. South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham faces voters Tuesday in the hopes of avoiding a runoff in the Palmetto State. And a July runoff awaits in Georgia, where businessman David Perdue and Congressman Jack Kingston are vying for the nod. Both have establishment credentials, and Republicans are confident in their abilities against Democrat Michelle Nunn. But Democrats hope the extra weeks of battle will weaken them.

Republicans “ignore the fact that they are on defense in at least two states, possibly three, and losing any one of those significantly impacts their ability to win the six they need,” said Justin Barasky, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “The fact that they have found candidates in these states who don’t throw up on themselves the moment they’re interviewed doesn’t mean the states are in play.”

Democrats point to GOP-held seats in Kentucky and Georgia, where polls show competitive races. Strategists are also keeping an eye on Mississippi, where they believe a McDaniel win could provide an opportunity for Democrats.

The GOP still has primaries to go in New Hampshire, Louisiana and, perhaps most importantly, in Alaska, where a late contest stands to benefit Begich. “If there was somebody who we may have to work extra hard on, because of the late primary, it would be Alaska,” Collins told RCP. “It’s not unwinnable or even far from winnable … but if we could get rid of that primary our odds would increase.”

Republicans believe Obama will be an extra-heavy weight in Alaska, where only a third of voters approve of his job performance. Begich has separated himself from the president at every turn. Instead, he’s focused his ads on his push in Washington for expanded oil drilling and bridge permits. Either former Attorney General Dan Sullivan or Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell is expected to become the GOP nominee and each has been competing for establishment support, though Sullivan has a significant fundraising advantage. Joe Miller, who beat Lisa Murkowski in the 2010 primary but fell to her write-in bid in the general election, could have been a troublesome contender for the party, but is floundering in the polls.

The NRSC doesn’t endorse in primaries for open or Democratic-held seats, but it has its eyes on Scott Brown in New Hampshire. The former Massachusetts senator has a strong fundraising prowess and national recognition, but faces questions about the political motivations behind his move to the Granite State. A September primary awaits him.

In Louisiana, Republicans favor Rep. Bill Cassidy, a doctor who donned a lab coat in his first campaign ad to go after Landrieu on health care. Cassidy has $5 million in cash to compete with the well-financed incumbent, who is using her chairmanship of the all-important Energy Committee as an appeal to voters in this oil-rich state. But Republicans point to recent polling that suggests the position did little to sway voters and they will try to undercut her clout. Cassidy won’t face voters until November, though, as the state has a “jungle primary” system that will pit the top two finishers -- likely to be the congressman and the senator -- in a December runoff.

Republicans are patting themselves on the back for further expanding the map this year to states Obama won in 2012. In Colorado, party leaders helped to clear the field for Rep. Cory Gardner to challenge incumbent Mark Udall. In Iowa, establishment and Tea Party Republicans alike coalesced behind Joni Ernst, an untested statewide candidate who won her primary last week. In Michigan, the GOP is boosting Terri Lynn Land against Democratic Rep. Gary Peters for Carl Levin’s seat. Former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie won the party’s nomination in Virginia over the weekend; he trails Mark Warner by double digits, but his candidacy forces the incumbent to compete and spend money.

While there are still plenty of primaries to go this summer, Republicans are increasingly optimistic. “I’m predicting to the people I talk to that we will take the majority or even gain nine seats,” Republican donor David Hanna told RCP. “Because the candidates look so good and we didn’t put a wacko in. … I think fundraising is going to continue at a high pace.”

Five months is a long time in politics, and Republicans are keenly aware of how one mistake, especially from a novice candidate, can shift the map. But the GOP hopes to have several paths to winning the majority, just in case.

This story was updated at 1:21 p.m. on June 10

