The RealClearPolitics average of recent polls puts Obama's advantage at 5.3 percentage points. The Huffington Post/Pollster.com trend estimate gives him a much narrower lead: just 1.6 percentage points.

When a president runs for reelection, his job-approval ratings are more significant than the trial heats. Voters who approve of the job a president is doing are very likely to vote to reelect him. Voters who disapprove are very likely to support the president's opponent. Obama's job ratings have ranged in recent weeks from as low as 44 percent to as high as 50 percent. The RealClearPolitics average and the Huffington Post/Pollster.com trend estimate show Obama's approval rating at 48 percent and his disapproval score at 47 percent.

How quickly and effectively Romney makes the turn from the primary season to a campaign aimed at the general election's swing voters is key. Obama has been running a general-election campaign all along. With Rick Santorum's decision on Tuesday to suspend his campaign, Romney can accelerate his transition. Simply talking to, rather than past, independent and swing voters should gain him a few points.

Without a doubt, Romney and his party have much rehabilitation work to do. The Gallup swing-state survey indicates that among independent voters, he has dropped from an 8-point lead, 49 percent to 41 percent, in October and from a 7-point advantage, 46 percent to 39 percent, in December to a 9-point deficit, 48 percent to 39 percent, in the most recent poll.

Romney must quickly reverse directions, probably grinding some gears in the process, but Obama's fate is less in his own hands than in the economy's. As of now, foreign policy is a good news/bad news proposition. The good news for the president is that the public generally approves of his handling of foreign policy. Indeed, if judged on that performance alone, he would win the election quite comfortably today. The bad news for him is that foreign policy doesn't seem to be a driver for many voters; their focus is the economy.

If economists' consensus is correct, Democrats who hoped that an improving economy would boost the president's reelection prospects might be disappointed; Obama's detractors looking for a plunge to seal his fate may be disappointed as well. Certainly, the economy is better today than it was six months ago; gross domestic product growth is higher and unemployment is lower. Consequently, the president's approval ratings have risen. But that trajectory might not continue. In the just-released, April 10 Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey of 56 top economists, the consensus of forecasts calls for tepid growth between now and the election: 2.2 percent GDP growth for the just-completed first quarter, 2.3 percent for the second quarter, 2.4 percent for the third quarter, and 2.6 percent in the final quarter of the year, The election, of course, falls in the middle of the fourth quarter. While better than the GDP growth of less than 2 percent in the first three quarters of 2011, the outlook is considerably below the 3 percent pace of last year's fourth quarter.