by Bryan Knowles

You can almost set your watch by the annual shock over major NFL contracts. With the salary cap increasing by more than $10 million for the fourth consecutive season, we have seen yet another round of eye-popping or record-setting deals. $67.5 million for a cornerback with one year of starting experience! A record $17 million a year for a wide receiver! $45 million for something called a "Mike Glennon!"

Some teams and fanbases see free agency as a "get out of purgatory free" card. The Jacksonville Jaguars, for example, have already added $174.4 million in contracts this offseason, including $69.6 million in guaranteed money, in an attempt to get back to relevance. This is the third season in a row they have been in the top two in free-agent spending, which is perhaps the best piece of evidence that you can't simply buy your way to success in the NFL.

No, to succeed in free agency, you want to be the team with the most cost-effective deals. You don't win championships by overpaying big-name stars. You win by having players outperform their contracts and getting more value out of your acquisitions than your opposition. In other words, you want your free-agency deals to be more Drew Brees in 2006 than Brock Osweiler in 2016.

Obviously, the only way to really judge a free-agent class is to look back and see how players performed with the benefit of hindsight. General managers don't have that luxury when signing players, however. So, in the interest of judging process rather than results, this our third annual attempt to identify the best and worst values of the free-agent market.

Methods

We have made some tweaks to this year's model in an attempt to better represent the actual realities of the free-agent market. If you don't care how the sausage is made and just want to see the results, you can safely skip this section.

Once again, we're using Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value statistic as our measure of player quality. As you might expect from a stat that seeks to quantify a wide range of different positions and skillsets across decades of NFL play and squash it down into a single number, it's not without its issues. It can't really differentiate between a great blocking tight end and a bad receiving tight end, gives too much value to poor players who nevertheless manage to stay in the starting lineup, and has serious trouble assigning appropriate values to individual offensive linemen (particularly bad linemen on good teams and vice versa).That being said, it's still a very useful tool for comparing a wide variety of players quickly and effectively. As long as we keep in mind that it's called approximate value and don't fret too much about the difference between an 8 AV player and a 7 AV player, it'll do nicely for our analysis.

In theory, a point of AV is a point of AV. The 16 AV put up by both Khalil Mack and Alex Mack in 2016 is equivalent, across positions. In previous years, we have used that to ascertain how much value a player needed to produce to justify their contract, but it turns out, position does matter here, and using one salary baseline for every position isn't the best option.

For example, once you remove rookies, minimum contracts and replacement-level players from the mix, teams spend about 1.5 times as much per AV on quarterbacks as they do on running backs. Are front offices overvaluing quarterbacks? Is the demand for quality quarterback play greater than the demand for rushers? Is AV overrating the importance of running backs? Yes, to all of the above. The end result is that it makes more sense to adjust the value of each contract for its position, rather than make a broad claim that all quarterbacks are overpaid.

Based on work by Chase Stuart, we can estimate a replacement-level veteran as providing 3.36 AV. We want to determine how much extra value a player needs to add in order to justify his contract. That value varies from position to position, with the league average being approximately $1.7 million per point of AV added.

Take Dont'a Hightower, for example. Hightower's new contract with New England is for four years and $35.5 million, or $8.875 million per season. That's $8.1 million more than the veteran's minimum of $775,000, so he needs to generate $8.1 million worth of value above replacement each season for his new deal to be worth it.

Linebacker is generally one of the cheaper positions to fill. Looking at veteran contracts over the past three seasons and adjusting for the expanding salary cap, we can determine that an average veteran linebacker costs about $1.13 million per point of AV added (in 2017 cap dollars). Now, we can estimate Hightower's needed AV to justify his contract:

Needed Future AV = 3.36 + ($8.1 million)/($1.13 million) = 10.53

To project Hightower's performance for future years, we used a regression that looked at his performance over the last three years and his age. The regression accounts for potential nonlinearities in the relationship. From this projection, we get Age-Adjusted Value, our estimate of the value that a contract either creates or destroys. Don’t'a Hightower's Age-Adjusted Value of plus-0.03 projects him to produce 0.03 AV more per season than he needs to in order to justify his contract.

Some final notes before we get to the numbers:

1) We're limiting the analysis to players with at least $3 million in average salary. AV tends to overvalue poor starters, letting them rack up AV for simply staying in the lineup. By setting a floor for the projections, we ignore some cases at the bottom of free agency where contracts that look like bargains are actually just proper value for low-quality starters.

2) We're using Spotrac's list of signed unrestricted free agents for all of our contract details. No restricted free agents, contract extensions, or other new 2017 contracts were included in the analysis was included. All information was correct as of March 24.

3) Age-adjusted value is a per-season metric. Obviously, some contracts last longer than one season, and a bad deal on a one-year contract hurts far less than a bad deal on a five-year contract. I'll point out particularly egregious long-term deals as we go.

Have I lost you yet? Excellent! Let's get to the actual numbers.



Quarterbacks

Player Age Tm Yrs Average Guaranteed Proj AV Needed AV Age-Adj Val Brian Hoyer 31 SF 2 $6,000,000 $6,950,000 7.93 5.47 2.46 Nick Foles 28 PHI 2 $5,500,000 $7,000,000 5.90 5.23 0.67 Josh McCown 37 NYJ 1 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 3.54 5.47 -1.93 Mike Glennon 27 CHI 3 $15,000,000 $18,500,000 4.90 9.72 -4.82

How do you project someone like Mike Glennon? Glennon has attempted 11 passes in the last two years. Take those away and we are left with a handful of games from three seasons ago and some preseason performances. For what it's worth, Glennon was 24th in DVOA during his six games in 2014; $15 million a season puts him 22nd in salary among NFL quarterbacks. Chicago is putting a lot of faith in its scouting to give Glennon that much money, even if it can get out of the deal after just one year if everything goes south.

The Bears likely could have kept Brian Hoyer. The 31-year-old Hoyer is no one's quarterback of the future, but he is one of the NFL's better backup or bridge options. At $6 million a year, Hoyer will rank 27th among NFL quarterbacks. That would be a massive steal for someone who reached 19.5% DVOA last season, and is still a good value for a player who was at -3.0% and -5.3% in two years as a starter before that. Reuniting with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, Hoyer could lead the 49ers to the dizzying heights of a sixth win in 2017.

Running Backs

Player Age Tm Yrs Average Guaranteed Proj AV Needed AV Age-Adj Val Eddie Lacy 26 SEA 1 $4,250,000 $2,865,000 7.32 5.65 1.67 Rex Burkhead 26 NE 1 $3,150,000 $1,100,000 2.85 4.81 -1.96 Kyle Juszczyk 25 SF 4 $5,250,000 $7,000,000 2.83 6.41 -3.58

Remember when Eddie Lacy wowed the world in his first two seasons, averaging 1,500 yards from scrimmage, making the Pro Bowl, and looking like a top-10 running back for years to come? Weight issues and injuries have kept him quiet since then, but he's still only 26 -- plenty of time for a career comeback. If he could somehow regain his 2014 form, Seattle's one-year deal would be an amazing value. That would require him to be both healthy and in shape, however, and Lacy reportedly tipped the scales at 267 pounds during his free agency visits. Color me a little skeptical here.

Kyle Juszczyk is now the highest-paid fullback in football, making more than twice what Ryan Hewitt makes. It's a staggering amount of money, even for arguably the best fullback in the game. Kyle Shanahan used Patrick DiMarco to great effect in Atlanta, and AV isn't properly giving Juszczyk credit for his excellent blocking, so this deal might not be quite as bad as the numbers indicate. Still -- DeMarco is getting just $2.1 million per season in Buffalo; is Juszczyk really worth two and half times as much?

Wide Receivers

Player Age Tm Yrs Average Guaranteed Proj AV Needed AV Age-Adj Val Terrance Williams 27 DAL 4 $4,250,000 $9,500,000 5.76 4.72 1.04 Ted Ginn Jr. 31 NO 3 $3,666,667 $3,000,000 5.44 4.43 1.01 Brandon Marshall 32 NYG 2 $5,500,000 $5,000,000 6.16 5.34 0.82 Terrelle Pryor 27 WAS 1 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 6.30 5.59 0.71 Robert Woods 24 LARM 5 $6,800,000 $7,000,000 6.48 5.99 0.49 Cordarrelle Patterson 26 OAK 2 $4,250,000 $5,000,000 4.84 4.72 0.12 Markus Wheaton 26 CHI 2 $5,500,000 $6,000,000 5.22 5.34 -0.12 Marquise Goodwin 26 SF 2 $3,000,000 $4,450,000 3.90 4.10 -0.20 Pierre Garcon 30 SF 5 $9,500,000 $17,000,000 6.87 7.33 -0.46 DeSean Jackson 30 TB 3 $11,166,667 $20,000,000 7.04 8.16 -1.12 Alshon Jeffery 27 PHI 1 $9,500,000 $8,750,000 6.16 7.33 -1.17 Kenny Britt 28 CLE 4 $8,125,000 $10,500,000 5.46 6.65 -1.19 Torrey Smith 28 PHI 3 $5,000,000 $500,000 3.63 5.10 -1.47 Russell Shepard 26 CAR 3 $3,333,333 $2,100,000 2.64 4.27 -1.63

Most people would peg Terrance Williams as a low-end No. 2 wideout. DVOA doesn't exactly agree; though Williams struggled for targets behind Cole Beasley, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten in 2016, he finished fourth in DVOA when the ball was thrown his way. Still, at $4.25 million a season, he's now the 40th-highest paid receiver in football; I'd subjectively have that as a minor overpay, if anything.

AV has no way of knowing that Ted Ginn is apparently allergic to catching passes from anyone not named Cam Newton; Ginn has averaged about a reception and 20 yards more per game in Carolina blue than he has anywhere else. If he can build some chemistry with Drew Brees, however, Ginn might slide into Brandin Cooks' old deep-threat role. $3.7 million a season seems like a fairly decent deal for a situational deep threat, even for a 32-year-old Ginn.

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DeSean Jackson is projected as the best receiver in this bunch, but nearly $12 million a season for a receiver past his 30th birthday is a very large pill to swallow. As long as Jackson keeps putting up 1,000 yard seasons, the contract is fine. However, it's tough for receivers to keep up that high level of performance into their 30s. The size of the deal means the Buccaneers are realistically tied to Jackson for the next two seasons, paying him like a top-10 receiver. He arguably was a top 10 receiver last season, but if his speed dries up in the next few years, the deal may well feel like an albatross.

But at least adding Jackson to give Jameis Winston a deep threat makes sense on paper. Cleveland's wide receiver shuffle makes less sense. They had a chance to keep Terrelle Pryor, who ended up on a short-term deal in Washington. AV's likely underrating Pryor here, because there's really no way to take into account the fact that last season was essentially his first as a receiver.

Rather than reap the benefits of the time and effort they spent working on Pryor's development, however, Cleveland gave a four-year deal to Kenny Britt. True, Britt had a slightly higher DVOA than Pryor last year in an even worse offense. But Britt is older, more expensive even after Pryor's incentives are taken into account, and less likely to improve in the future. Statistics suggest he may even be a worse receiver right now, While the one-dimensional Torrey Smith and the replacement-level Russell Shepard grade out as worse deals in the metric, they're essentially one-year deals; Cleveland is tied to Britt for at least two.

Tight Ends

Player Age Tm Yrs Average Guaranteed Proj AV Needed AV Age-Adj Val Martellus Bennett 30 GB 3 $7,000,000 $6,300,000 5.68 5.37 0.31 Jared Cook 29 OAK 2 $5,300,000 $5,000,000 3.69 4.72 -1.03 Ryan Griffin 27 HOU 3 $3,000,000 $3,225,000 2.78 3.85 -1.07 Mychal Rivera 26 JAC 2 $3,375,000 $750,000 2.41 3.99 -1.58 Levine Toilolo 25 ATL 3 $4,000,000 $3,000,000 2.51 4.23 -1.72 Dion Sims 26 CHI 3 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 2.30 4.99 -2.69 Rhett Ellison 28 NYG 4 $4,500,000 $8,000,000 0.66 4.42 -3.76

One of the most noted problems with AV is that it undervalues good blocking tight ends and receivers, and that's part of what you're seeing here, with so many tight ends being given significant negative grades. Still, it does feel, even subjectively, like a lot of relatively minor tight ends were given hefty deals in 2017, especially considering the deep class of tight ends in this year's draft. $6 million a year for Dion Sims? I'd have a hard time justifying that.

Ironically, considering these comments he made on NFL Network, the one tight end who isn't overpaid is Martellus Bennett. Bennett's not just a product of New England's offense; he put up good numbers in both Chicago and New York before getting to play with Tom Brady in New England. I also seem to remember that Green Bay has a pretty decent quarterback as well. Bennett should do quite well in Jared Cook's old role in Green Bay, even at age 30.

Offensive Line

Player Age Tm Yrs Average Guaranteed Proj AV Needed AV Age-Adj Val D.J. Fluker 26 NYG 1 $3,000,000 $1,500,000 7.94 4.48 3.46 Andre Smith 30 CIN 1 $3,250,000 $1,550,000 6.37 4.65 1.72 Mike Remmers 27 MIN 5 $6,000,000 $10,500,000 8.16 6.48 1.68 Andrew Whitworth 35 LARM 3 $11,250,000 $15,000,000 10.33 9.98 0.35 Larry Warford 25 NO 4 $8,500,000 $10,100,000 7.75 8.14 -0.39 T.J. Lang 29 DET 3 $9,500,000 $19,000,000 8.24 8.81 -0.57 Kelvin Beachum 27 NYJ 3 $8,000,000 $12,000,000 7.24 7.81 -0.57 Luke Joeckel 25 SEA 1 $8,000,000 $7,000,000 7.03 7.81 -0.78 Benjamin Ijalana 27 NYJ 2 $5,500,000 $0 5.19 6.15 -0.96 Ricky Wagner 27 DET 5 $9,500,000 $17,500,000 7.11 8.81 -1.70 J.C. Tretter 26 CLE 3 $5,583,333 $6,500,000 4.36 6.20 -1.84 Menelik Watson 28 DEN 3 $6,125,000 $5,500,000 4.62 6.56 -1.94 Riley Reiff 28 MIN 5 $11,750,000 $26,300,000 8.07 10.31 -2.24 Matt Kalil 27 CAR 5 $11,100,000 $13,000,000 7.50 9.88 -2.38 Ron Leary 27 DEN 4 $9,000,000 $18,650,000 5.86 8.48 -2.62 Kevin Zeitler 27 CLE 5 $12,000,000 $23,000,000 7.29 10.48 -3.19 Russell Okung 29 LACH 4 $13,250,000 $25,000,000 7.51 11.31 -3.80

This is probably the position where we should take this analysis with the most grains of salt. AV undervalues linemen who were good but not good enough to make the Pro Bowl, and overvalues bad offensive tackles who get a lot of starts. That tends to work itself out over enough time and players, but when you're dealing with smaller sample sizes, outliers do tend to pop out.

That explains, for example, why Mike Remmers is so high. Remmers started 37 games at right tackle over the past two seasons for a team that went to the Super Bowl; he has to be pretty good right? Well, no. Sports Info Solutions charted Remmers with the fourth-most missed blocks in the league in 2016, and our own Ben Muth called him "probably the worst full-time starter" he watched. Who am I to argue offensive line play with Ben Muth? Remmers is getting the benefit of being associated with a good team, as opposed to being valued for his own skill level here.

Left tackles also seem to be a bit depressed overall -- they probably need to have a separate contract modifier from right tackles, and that's a project to (ahem) tackle for future editions. That being said, it's impressive that, even at age 35, Andrew Whitworth is still outperforming major free-agent contracts. The formula is slamming him with age-related penalties as most offensive linemen just don't continue to play at all through their mid-30s, much less make a All-Pro squads. Jared Goff should thank his lucky stars Whitworth's coming to town.

I may not be as high on the D.J. Fluker deal as the stats indicate, but a one-year, $3 million deal is very low risk for someone who has played well when healthy and can cover both tackle and guard spots.

Russell Okung is a major injury question mark. While he played all 16 games last year, he missed 13 in the three seasons prior. That makes a contract with $25 million guaranteed quite the gamble for the Los Angeles Chargers; Okung is now the second-highest paid offensive lineman in football, behind Trent Williams, and that's a bit of a gamble. Similarly, the metric doesn't like that Kevin Zeitler is now the highest-paid guard; it's hard to be a value when you make more money than anyone else at your position.

Subjectively, though, I'd pin Carolina signing Matt Kalil as the worst of the bunch so far. Not only is Kalil coming off of a major hip surgery, but he also really hasn't had a particularly solid season since 2012. With the contract structure being what it is, they probably can't slip out of it particularly easily until after the 2020 season, so it's a heck of a gamble, and not one I would be comfortable making.

Defensive Line

Player Age Tm Yrs Average Guaranteed Proj AV Needed AV Age-Adj Val Chris Baker 29 TB 3 $5,250,000 $6,000,000 8.01 6.27 1.74 Domata Peko 32 DEN 2 $3,750,000 $3,800,000 6.67 5.18 1.49 Lawrence Guy 27 NE 4 $3,350,000 $4,900,000 6.31 4.88 1.43 Tyson Alualu 29 PIT 2 $3,000,000 $1,750,000 5.41 4.63 0.78 Sylvester Williams 28 TEN 3 $5,833,333 $7,000,000 7.45 6.70 0.75 Akeem Spence 25 DET 3 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 4.97 4.63 0.34 Terrell McClain 28 WAS 4 $5,250,000 $10,500,000 6.34 6.27 0.07 Dontari Poe 26 ATL 1 $8,000,000 $7,500,000 8.30 8.29 0.01 Ricky Jean-Francois 30 GB 1 $3,000,000 $0 4.38 4.63 -0.25 Stacy McGee 27 WAS 5 $5,000,000 $9,000,000 5.02 6.09 -1.07 Earl Mitchell 29 SF 4 $4,000,000 $4,650,000 4.18 5.36 -1.18 Calais Campbell 30 JAC 4 $15,000,000 $30,000,000 12.03 13.41 -1.38 Nick Fairley 29 NO 4 $7,000,000 $9,000,000 6.12 7.55 -1.43 Bennie Logan 27 KC 1 $8,000,000 $7,680,000 6.76 8.29 -1.53 Brandon Williams 28 BAL 5 $10,500,000 $24,500,000 7.93 10.11 -2.18

Calais Campbell is the best player on this list, but it's likely that the Jaguars are overpaying for past production on this deal. As long as Campbell keeps playing like has over the past few seasons in Arizona, the Jaguars are getting one of the best 3-4 defensive ends in football. The Jaguars don't actually run a 3-4, mind you, but Campbell should be fine as an end in Todd Wash's system. The problem is that Campbell turns 31 in September. $15 million a year is a lot of money; if Campbell struggles with the transition to a 4-3 or begins to see his skills decline, that's a potential issue. Huge pick-up, big help for Jacksonville's defense -- but a big, big contract to take on.

Chris Baker is a fantastic signing; one of my favorite of the entire offseason. The Buccaneers have been looking for someone to stick alongside Gerald McCoy, and Baker's a great addition at a very reasonable price. He'll help make Tampa Bay a nightmare to run against, and he's not someone who needs to be replaced on passing downs. A very nice bit of value, there.

Some numbers here I definitely disagree with, however. Brandon Williams is one of the top interior linemen in the league, and he's still well within his prime. $10.5 million a year is a hefty price tag for sure, making him the NFL's highest-paid nose tackle, but it's nearly not bad enough to have him at the bottom of the table for me. On the other hand, Domata Peko's play hasn't nearly lived up to his actual AV scores. He's getting credit for remaining a starter on Cincinnati's defensive line, despite the fact that he hasn't really looked sharp since... 2012? Earlier? AV is definitely overrating him here.

Edge-Rushers

Player Age Tm Yrs Average Guaranteed Proj AV Needed AV Age-Adj Val Connor Barwin 30 LARM 1 $6,500,000 $0 6.96 6.39 0.57 Julius Peppers 37 CAR 1 $3,500,000 $1,650,000 5.10 4.61 0.49 John Simon 26 IND 3 $4,500,000 $5,500,000 4.19 5.20 -1.01 Datone Jones 26 MIN 1 $3,750,000 $1,600,000 3.65 4.76 -1.11 Jabaal Sheard 27 IND 3 $8,500,000 $9,500,000 6.04 7.57 -1.53

It should be noted that neither AV nor the Spotrac salary database has a distinction for edge-rushers, so splitting them out is a bit arbitrary. Comparing 3-4 outside linebackers to 4-3 outside linebackers has never really made sense, though, so it's a distinction that's worth making.

I'm really, really high on Connor Barwin for the upcoming season. Miscast as a 4-3 defensive end in Philadelphia last season, he gets to kick back out to 3-4 linebacker in Los Angeles. He also gets to work with Wade Phillips, who has magic defensive turnaround powers. I'd be shocked if he has five or fewer sacks again this season, barring injury.

Jabaal Sheard is probably best suited for a rotational pass-rushing role. He was benched late in the season in New England as Trey Flowers picked up steam, and looked more comfortable with some of the pressure taken off. You shouldn't really count on him to be a dominant force; he's a piece of the puzzle, and not the full answer. This all makes $8.5 million a year very questionable from Indianapolis. That's full-time starter money.

Linebackers

Player Age Tm Yrs Average Guaranteed Proj AV Needed AV Age-Adj Val Kevin Minter 26 CIN 1 $4,250,000 $2,100,000 7.87 6.23 1.64 Lawrence Timmons 30 MIA 2 $6,000,000 $11,000,000 8.44 7.86 0.58 Malcolm Smith 27 SF 5 $5,300,000 $11,500,000 7.70 7.21 0.49 Dont'a Hightower 27 NE 4 $8,875,000 $17,000,000 10.56 10.53 0.03 Keenan Robinson 27 NYG 1 $3,000,000 $2,000,000 4.89 5.07 -0.18 Paul Worrilow 26 DET 1 $3,000,000 $2,750,000 4.77 5.07 -0.30 A.J. Klein 25 NO 4 $6,000,000 $9,400,000 4.38 7.86 -3.48

2016 was really a breakout season for Kevin Minter; the former second-round pick struggled to see the field in his first few seasons, but it seemed like the proverbial light went on for him last season. He's trending upwards, but you don't want to pay too much for one season of production. Cincinnati limits their risk with a one-year, $4.5 million contract.

A.J. Klein has been the weak link in the Panthers' corps over the past four seasons, and had his worst season in extended time last year, replacing Luke Kuechly after his concussion. Klein is alright as a run stopper, but asking him to cover tight ends or running backs is beyond his skill set. $6 million a year from the Saints is a hefty chunk of change; it makes him the 12th-highest paid inside linebacker in football. That seems like an awful lot for Carolina's fourth-best linebacker.

Defensive Backs

Player Age Tm Yrs Average Guaranteed Proj AV Needed AV Age-Adj Val Johnathan Cyprien 26 TEN 4 $6,250,000 $9,000,000 6.58 5.36 1.22 D.J. Swearinger 25 WAS 3 $4,500,000 $6,000,000 5.48 4.61 0.87 Antoine Bethea 32 ARI 3 $4,250,000 $4,000,000 5.35 4.50 0.85 Nolan Carroll 30 DAL 3 $3,333,333 $3,000,000 4.83 4.10 0.73 J.J. Wilcox 28 TB 2 $3,125,000 $3,125,000 4.70 4.01 0.69 Quintin Demps 31 CHI 3 $4,500,000 $4,500,000 5.23 4.61 0.62 Brandon Carr 30 BAL 4 $5,875,000 $4,000,000 5.54 5.20 0.34 Marcus Cooper 27 CHI 3 $5,333,333 $6,000,000 5.22 4.96 0.26 Terence Newman 38 MIN 1 $3,250,000 $1,500,000 3.99 4.07 -0.08 Tony Jefferson 25 BAL 4 $8,500,000 $19,000,000 6.09 6.33 -0.24 Barry Church 29 JAC 4 $6,500,000 $12,000,000 5.14 5.47 -0.33 Micah Hyde 26 BUF 5 $6,100,000 $10,300,000 4.90 5.29 -0.39 Captain Munnerlyn 28 CAR 4 $4,250,000 $8,800,000 4.08 4.50 -0.42 Jordan Poyer 25 BUF 4 $3,250,000 $6,000,000 3.62 4.07 -0.45 Darius Butler 31 IND 1 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 3.36 3.96 -0.60 Morris Claiborne 27 NYJ 1 $5,000,000 $2,000,000 4.11 4.82 -0.71 D.J. Hayden 26 DET 1 $3,750,000 $2,250,000 3.57 4.28 -0.71 Prince Amukamara 27 CHI 1 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 4.93 5.68 -0.75 Nate Allen 29 MIA 1 $3,400,000 $3,400,000 3.09 4.13 -1.04 Logan Ryan 26 TEN 3 $10,000,000 $12,000,000 5.93 6.98 -1.05 Stephon Gilmore 26 NE 5 $13,000,000 $31,000,000 7.11 8.27 -1.16 Kayvon Webster 26 LARM 2 $3,875,000 $4,250,000 2.72 4.34 -1.62 A.J. Bouye 25 JAC 5 $13,500,000 $26,000,000 5.14 8.48 -3.34

Age-Adjusted AV hates the A.J. Bouye contract, and it's not too difficult to see why. Bouye had only started eight games before 2016, and while he racked up a fair amount of interceptions, the lack of time in the starting lineup penalizes his AV score. It doesn't think Bouye was the top corner available, giving that nod to Stephon Gilmore. AV is wrong, of course; Bouye was amazing last year. Now, you can argue that the Jaguars are paying a lot of money on a long-term deal for a player who essentially has one year of good play in his history. Making him one of the five highest-paid corners in the game after starting last season fourth on the depth chart is a heck of a jump. Still, it's nowhere near as bad of a deal as the stats would indicate.

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Stephon Gilmore is a rare case of New England coming out looking bad in one of these stats. The Patriots generally do not make big deals like this one. Gilmore's charting stats have never been super-great; SIS had him as 77th out of 84 qualifying cornerbacks in yards per target last year, which isn't exactly great, making the decision to splurge on Gilmore in particular somewhat eyebrow-raising. (Gilmore did rank 25th the year before, but that was his career-best.) The Patriots had no negative contracts in either of the first two years of this analysis, but have two this year in Gilmore and Rex Burkhead, and a third just barely positive deal in Dont'a Hightower. This could be a sign that they're shifting from perpetual renewable value to an all-in run at a final championship or two under the Brady/Belichick combo, or they could simply have different evaluations of these players. By now, we have learned that second-guessing Belichick is a good way to look foolish.

On the other end of the scale, Johnathan Cyprien looks like a good signing for Tennessee. He's a hard-tackling, hard-hitting thumper, and it's likely he'll end up playing some linebacker for Dick LeBeau in dime packages. However, Cyprien had a career year just in time for him to cash in, so you have to worry about whether his performance is repeatable. You also don't want to count on him for a lot of pass coverage. Nonetheless, he'll only be 27 in 2017, and should be a great fit for the Titans.

Washington's offseason has been, shall we say, chaotic so far, but the signing of D.J. Swearinger is a high point. Swearinger performed well in Arizona's secondary last season, taking a significant step forward in pass defense. Also, it turns out he's just 25 and not 27 -- Elias had an odd mistake in their system, listing him with the wrong age. There's a big difference between 25 and 27! At 25, a safety is just entering his peak; at 27, he is at the age where he begins to decline. Age Swearinger by two years, and his projected AV would drop to 4.89.

Special Teams

Player Age Tm Yrs Average Guaranteed Proj AV Needed AV Age-Adj Val Phil Dawson 42 ARI 2 $3,000,000 $1,500,000 3.60 3.40 0.20

For completeness' sake, here's the one sizeable special teams free-agent contract signed this offseason. Most kickers cost significantly less than $3 million per season. If you are going to spend that much on a kicker, Phil Dawson is a decent one to go grab; he has made 86.1 percent of his field goals over the last four seasons in San Francisco, though he is somewhat below par at kickoffs.

Conclusions and Final Thoughts

This isn't the end-all, be-all of free-agent analysis, but it gives us a good overview of how teams are choosing to spend their money. Even if our value estimations and projected future performance were 100 percent accurate -- which they are very much not -- that doesn't mean that a contract with a bad score is necessarily a bad decision. Seeing where teams deviate from these value calculations can give you an insight into how they're choosing to compete.

Some teams are gambling that their scouting or coaching can get more value out of a player than the general consensus would imply, like the Bears with Mike Glennon. Some are willing to pay an extra premium for the very best at a given position, like the Jaguars with Calais Campbell. Some have specific styles of play they want to highlight, like the 49ers with Kyle Juszczyk. Some are willing to overpay in order to plug the one hole that lies between them and contention, like the Vikings with Riley Reiff. Some are willing to gamble that one year of success becomes a trend, like the Jaguars (again) and A.J. Bouye. Some have earned enough value in other places to warrant a gamble, like the Patriots and Stephon Gilmore. And some teams simply have so much cap space that they can "afford" to overspend in order to attract free agents to less enticing situations, like the Jaguars (again) and the 49ers.

You're not going to build a long-term contender by filling your team with poor contracts. Simply signing the biggest names to the biggest deals very rarely ends up paying off. Competing in the NFL in the salary cap era is all about getting the most value out of your dollar, whether that's through finding that budget free agent which fits your scheme perfectly, extending a player who is about to take the next step under your coaching, or taking advantage of cheaper rookie contracts to fill out your lineup. It's alright to take a risk on a questionable contract every now and again, but the very best teams, the teams that contend year after year, don't make a habit of it. Stick to the Flukers and Bakers and pass on the Glennons and the Sims and you're more likely to be contending in January.

Special thanks go to Andrew Healy for the original cost-benefit analysis work over the last two seasons, to Chase Stuart for the initial calculations of replacement-level value, and to Doug Drinen for creating AV to begin with.