by Vincent Verhei

Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger will forever be linked as members of the 2004 draft class, but they played very different games this weekend. Both quarterbacks won, but Roethlisberger went through hot and cold spells, while Rivers sputtered his way through four quarters while his defense and special teams did most of the work. Roethlisberger had six first downs in his first seven dropbacks against Cincinnati, but only five after that, including just one in his last nine plays. Rivers, on the other hand, had ten first downs in total against Denver, but never more than three in a row. Is "streakiness" a trait that some quarterbacks show consistently, or is this just random noise? Is this the kind of thing that can be quantified, measured, and analyzed?

We have explored these questions before, with mixed results. In Week 4 of 2014 I tried measuring the correlation of the DYAR of each play with the DYAR of the play that followed. The flaw in this methodology is that big plays like sacks and interceptions tended to warp the results. A week later, I tried again, this time measuring each quarterback's average streak of good or bad plays. Then I explored a new idea in Roethlisberger's comment in Week 2 of this season, and that's the basic methodology I'd like to explore today.

The basic idea is to measure each quarterback's success rate on passing plays (including sacks, interceptions, aborted plays, and DPIs, but not spikes or kneeldowns). If you're not familiar with success rate, the idea is explained here, but the details are this: a play is considered successful if it produces 45 percent of the yards to go on first down, 60 percent of yards to go on second down, or 100 percent of yards to go on third or fourth down. We have always been able to measure each quarterback's success rate over a season or a game, but today I've broken that down into two categories: success rate on plays after successes, and success rate on plays following failures.

Let's take Roethlisberger's game against Cincinnati, for example. He had 25 plays against the Bengals, with an overall success rate of 45.8 percent. Twelve of those plays came after successful plays, and his success rate on those 12 plays was 58.3 percent. Twelve of those plays came after failures, and his success rate on those plays was 33.3 percent. (His first pass of the game didn't come after a success or a failure, so it does not fit into either of these bins.) Subtracting the latter rate former, we can say that Roethlisberger's "streak rate" against Cincinnati was +25.0 percent.

Now we do the same process with Rivers. He had a success rate of 36.7 percent on 30 dropbacks against Denver. That includes a 25.0 percent success rate on 12 plays after successes, and a 44.4 percent success rate on 18 plays after failures, for a "streak factor" of (25.0% - 44.4%) -19.4 percent.

As it turns out, neither of these games was particularly streaky or un-streaky, compared to other games this year. Josh McCown had a streak factor of 42.3 percent in Week 1 against Buffalo. In the first three quarters of that game, McCown had three separate streaks of at least four failures in a row. Then he put together six successes in a row before ending the game on a run of 12 consecutive failures.

That's the most extreme example, but the other games in the top-five streakiest games list had similar moments:

Andy Dalton, Week 4 -- Streak Factor: 36.5%: In a 31-7 win over Cleveland, Dalton starts a string of 10 straight successful plays in the second quarter and lasting into the third. From there, he has four straight failures, four straight successes, and four straight failures to end the game.

In a 31-7 win over Cleveland, Dalton starts a string of 10 straight successful plays in the second quarter and lasting into the third. From there, he has four straight failures, four straight successes, and four straight failures to end the game. Drew Brees, Week 6 -- Streak Factor: 36.1%: This was the game in which the Saints nearly blew a 45-10 lead before hanging on for a 52-38 win. Brees did not have a successful play after the midway point of the third quarter, finishing the game with an amazing 14 straight failed plays.

This was the game in which the Saints nearly blew a 45-10 lead before hanging on for a 52-38 win. Brees did not have a successful play after the midway point of the third quarter, finishing the game with an amazing 14 straight failed plays. Blake Bortles, Week 1 -- Streak Factor: 35.9%: Though he had no very long streaks of a dozen plays or more, Bortles had three separate streaks against Houston with at least three successes in a row, and three separate streaks with at least three failures in a row.

Though he had no very long streaks of a dozen plays or more, Bortles had three separate streaks against Houston with at least three successes in a row, and three separate streaks with at least three failures in a row. Scott Tolzien, Week 1 -- Streak Factor: 30.0%: Why did the Colts trade for Jacoby Brissett? In his last 15 plays against the Rams, Tolzien had three straight failures, one success, and then 11 failures in a row.

Yes, three of the five streakiest games of the year came in Week 1. Russell Wilson's Week 1 game against Green Bay was sixth, and there were two other Week 1 games in the top 12. It's interesting that quarterbacks were much more streaky in the first three weeks of the season than they have been since, but right now there's no way to accurately say whether this is random noise or if there's something meaningful going on there.

NFL League-Wide Streak Factors by Week, 2017 Week Success%

After Success Success%

After Failure Streak

Factor 1 50.0% 40.2% 9.8% 2 48.9% 41.0% 8.0% 3 51.0% 40.6% 10.4% 4 47.9% 41.6% 6.3% 5 47.3% 41.2% 6.1% 6 45.7% 40.4% 5.3% 7 45.5% 40.1% 5.3%

Again, that drop-off may be due to nothing more than fate and happenstance, but the fact is that the majority of the most un-streaky games this year have come in the past few weeks. To wit:

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Jay Cutler, Week 4 -- Streak Factor: -44.3% Cutler had 12 successes in 32 plays in a 20-0 loss to Miami. Only once did he have successes on back-to-back plays.

Cutler had 12 successes in 32 plays in a 20-0 loss to Miami. Only once did he have successes on back-to-back plays. Aaron Rodgers, Week 4 -- Streak Factor: -29.6%: In a 35-14 win over Chicago, Rodgers had successes on each of his first three passes, but never again picked up back-to-back successes in his other 26 plays.

In a 35-14 win over Chicago, Rodgers had successes on each of his first three passes, but never again picked up back-to-back successes in his other 26 plays. Carson Wentz, Week 6 -- Streak Factor: -29.6%: In a 28-23 win over Carolina, Wentz has back-to-back successes three times, but never makes three good plays in a row.

In a 28-23 win over Carolina, Wentz has back-to-back successes three times, but never makes three good plays in a row. Philip Rivers, Week 4 -- Streak Factor: -29.2%: The Chargers fall to the Eagles 26-24 in part because Rivers has six straight failed plays between the first and second quarters. After that, though, he never hits on more than two successes in a row, or fails on more than three plays in a row.

The Chargers fall to the Eagles 26-24 in part because Rivers has six straight failed plays between the first and second quarters. After that, though, he never hits on more than two successes in a row, or fails on more than three plays in a row. Alex Smith, Week 1 -- Streak Factor: -27.7%: An anomaly of an un-streaky Week 1 game, but as we shall get to shortly, a fairly regular occurrence for Alex Smith this season. We all remember the big plays Smith made in the 42-27 season-opening victory over New England, but did you know that in the final 31 minutes of the game, Smith never had more than two successes or two failures in a row?

One advantage to this methodology: It lets us quickly analyze not just single-game results, but also full-season totals. And that's where things really start to get interesting.

NFL's Streakiest Quarterbacks, 2017 Name Plays Total

Success% Rk Success%

After Success Rk Success%

After Failure Rk Streak

Factor Rk 10-E.Manning 273 42.5% 22 53.9% 2 34.2% 31 19.7% 1 3-R.Wilson 228 45.6% 14 53.8% 3 38.7% 24 15.1% 2 4-D.Carr 198 47.5% 10 54.7% 1 40.8% 15 14.0% 3 9-M.Stafford 247 42.1% 23 50.0% 9 36.4% 27 13.6% 4 2-B.Hoyer 219 38.4% 30 46.5% 23 33.1% 32 13.4% 5 14-A.Dalton 205 42.0% 25 48.9% 15 36.8% 26 12.1% 6 8-M.Glennon 146 39.7% 27 46.6% 22 35.2% 30 11.3% 7 1-C.Newton 249 43.8% 21 49.5% 13 39.1% 23 10.4% 8 7-B.Roethlisberger 251 45.0% 15 50.4% 8 40.4% 19 10.0% 9 15-J.McCown 237 43.9% 20 48.6% 16 40.2% 20 8.4% 10 16-J.Goff 227 44.1% 19 48.5% 17 40.6% 17 7.9% 11 5-B.Bortles 204 44.1% 18 48.4% 19 40.5% 18 7.8% 12 12-T.Brady 277 48.4% 6 52.2% 7 44.8% 11 7.5% 13 7-J.Brissett 219 39.7% 27 43.8% 28 36.9% 25 6.9% 14 9-D.Brees 219 49.8% 3 53.2% 4 46.4% 8 6.8% 15 3-C.Palmer 289 44.6% 17 48.4% 18 41.6% 14 6.8% 16 Name Plays Total

Success% Rk Success%

After Success Rk Success%

After Failure Rk Streak

Factor Rk 5-T.Taylor 184 41.8% 26 45.5% 25 39.3% 22 6.2% 17 4-D.Prescott 205 46.3% 12 49.5% 14 43.8% 13 5.7% 18 8-K.Cousins 164 47.6% 9 50.0% 9 45.3% 10 4.7% 19 5-J.Flacco 234 37.6% 31 40.4% 30 35.9% 28 4.6% 20 2-M.Ryan 210 50.5% 2 52.3% 6 48.5% 4 3.8% 21 4-D.Watson 187 48.1% 7 50.0% 9 46.3% 9 3.7% 22 13-T.Siemian 233 42.1% 24 43.9% 27 40.7% 16 3.1% 23 3-J.Winston 212 51.9% 1 53.1% 5 50.5% 2 2.6% 24 7-C.Keenum 192 49.0% 4 50.0% 9 48.0% 5 2.0% 25 12-A.Rodgers 212 47.6% 8 48.0% 20 47.3% 6 0.7% 26 17-P.Rivers 267 44.9% 16 45.3% 26 44.7% 12 0.6% 27 7-D.Kizer 191 35.6% 32 35.3% 32 35.8% 29 -0.5% 28 6-J.Cutler 188 38.8% 29 38.2% 31 39.3% 21 -1.1% 29 11-C.Wentz 223 46.2% 13 45.5% 24 46.7% 7 -1.2% 30 8-M.Mariota 175 48.6% 5 47.6% 21 49.5% 3 -1.8% 31 11-A.Smith 243 46.9% 11 42.5% 29 50.8% 1 -8.3% 32 Minimum 100 pass plays.

On first observation, we see that most players are inherently streaky to some degree. There are a lot of factors that could be influencing this -- opponent strengths and tendencies, health of the quarterback and his teammates, coaching and play-calling tendencies, etc. -- but by and large, most quarterbacks are more likely to make a good play after another good play than they are to make a good play after a bad play. And of the few who are not, the numerical gap is slight enough that could easily change over the rest of the season. The one exception -- and isn't he always the exception? -- is Alex Smith, who is smart and experienced enough to avoid making several bad plays in a row, but also so limited that he rarely makes bunches of good plays in a row. There may be something to Smith's risk-averse playing style at work here -- as if other quarterbacks who have their opponents on the ropes will go for the knockout blow, while Smith never met a checkdown he didn't like. It also may not be a coincidence that Carson Wentz is third from the bottom, considering his head coach (Doug Pederson) used to work for Smith's head coach (Andy Reid).

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Meanwhile, the four names at the top of the table -- Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, and Matthew Stafford -- have all been moderately erratic this year, as judged by overall success rate. All four, however, have played much better on plays after successes, and much worse on plays after failures. The most extreme split goes to Manning, who has been the second-best quarterback behind Carr after successes, and the second-worst behind Brian Hoyer after failures. These numbers only cover the first seven games of 2017, but they make sense given the extremes of Manning's successes (two Super Bowl rings, twice leading the league in fourth-quarter comebacks) and failures (career completion rate below 60 percent, three times leading the league in interceptions). Manning has four games so far this season with at least 20 dropbacks and a streak rate of at least 20 percent; nobody else has more than two. At the other end of the spectrum, Smith has five games with at least 20 dropbacks and a streak rate of -10 percent or lower; nobody else has more than three.

It's also clear that streaky quarterbacks are not necessarily good quarterbacks. Most of the quarterbacks with high overall success rates fall on the less streaky side of things. Turns out throwing lots of incomplete passes in a row is a bad thing. Russell Wilson is the only quarterback in the top seven whose team has a winning record. At the bottom of the table, Smith and Wentz play for teams with the best records in their conferences, and the Titans are 4-1 in games Marcus Mariota has started and finished. (By the way, what's more surprising: that Jameis Winston is currently leading the NFL in success rate, or that his backup, Ryan Fitzpatrick, has been even better at 55.9 percent on 34 plays?)

We'll revisit this later this season to see if the players who have been streaky so far are still streaky later, and down the line we'll see how this holds up from one season to the next.

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 1. Derek Carr OAK 29/52 417 3 0 0 215 208 6 KC For the better part of a week now, all anyone has talked about is what happened at the end of the game on Thursday night, but it was the first quarter when Carr was really at his best: 6-of-7 for 133 yards and two touchdowns. All six of those completions resulted in first downs, including a pair of third-down conversions. 2. Jameis Winston TB 32/44 384 3 1 1 172 172 0 BUF Winston was actually below replacement level in the first half, but he was second in third-quarter DYAR this week, and way ahead of everyone else in the fourth quarter/overtime. After halftime, he went 17-of-20 for 204 yards and two touchdowns. 3. Carson Wentz PHI 17/25 268 4 1 3 147 135 12 WAS Wentz was so good in the last 30-some minutes of this game that many people forgot how badly he struggled for most of the first half. His first 11 dropbacks resulted in three completions for 30 yards and one first down, one interception, three sacks, and a fumble. Of course, his 12th dropback was a 64-yard touchdown to Mack Hollins, and there was no looking back after that. 4. Dak Prescott DAL 16/25 234 3 0 0 138 114 24 SF Prescott got a lot of help from his receivers. With the exception of Mitchell Trubisky (whose bizarre day we shall get to, believe you me), no other quarterback this week topped Prescott's mark of 10.0 yards after catch per reception. His longest completion of the day was a 72-yard pass to Ezekiel Elliott, but that pass was actually caught 4 yards behind the line of scrimmage. 5. Russell Wilson SEA 28/39 334 3 0 1 132 131 1 NYG Wilson ripped up the middle of the Giants defense, going 9-of-12 for 143 yards. Every one of those completions gained a first down, including a touchdown and four third-down conversions. A 13th throw up the middle resulted in 4 more yards and another third-down conversion. That was nothing, though, compared to... 6. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 14/24 224 2 0 0 126 126 0 CIN ... Roethlisberger, who went 7-for-7 up the middle against Cincinnati for 161 yards and a touchdown. Six of those completions resulted in first downs; the seventh was a 12-yard gain on third-and-13. An eighth throw up the middle resulted in 34 more yards and another first down. 7. Blake Bortles JAC 18/26 330 1 0 1 118 114 3 IND On passes that traveled 5 to 22 yards past the line of scrimmage, Bortles went 9-of-9 for 177 yards and a touchdown. 8. Tom Brady NE 21/29 249 2 0 2 98 98 1 ATL As long as Brady and the Patriots stayed out of long yardage, they were nearly unstoppable against Atlanta. With 8 yards or fewer to go for a first down, Brady went 8-of-10 for 82 yards. All eight of those completions went for first downs, including two touchdowns. 9. Drew Brees NO 27/38 331 1 2 1 86 84 2 GB Take out the third quarter and Brees was actually below replacement level. That's especially true in the first quarter, when he threw two interceptions. But he led the league this week in third-quarter DYAR, going 8-of-11 for 134 yards and a touchdown. 10. Matt Ryan ATL 23/33 233 1 0 1 83 66 17 NE Ryan pulled a Blake Bortles this week, with most of his good plays coming after the game had been realistically decided. From the point the Patriots went up 20-0 with less than 20 minutes to play, Ryan went 13-of-14 for 120 yards. He had four first downs in the first 40 minutes, eight in the last 20, including a touchdown on his last pass of the game. 11. Alex Smith KC 25/36 342 3 0 1 78 78 0 OAK Smith had one of the best days you'll ever see between his own 32- and 37-yard lines: 5-of-5 for 181 yards. All five completions resulted in first downs, including -- yes -- two touchdowns. (He also hade a 2-yard loss and a fumble on an aborted play from the 39, but we'll just ignore that.) 12. Kirk Cousins WAS 30/40 303 3 1 4 73 64 9 PHI We don't usually think of Cousins as a great deep passer, but he was very effective on deep balls against Philadelphia: 5-of-7 for 131 yards. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 13. Tyrod Taylor BUF 20/33 268 1 0 1 69 58 10 TB Taylor was tied with Derek Carr for third-down DYAR this week (though Carr jumps ahead if you include fourth downs). On third downs, Taylor went 9-of-12 for 126 yards with seven conversions, including a 22-yard touchdown. 14. Case Keenum MIN 20/31 188 0 1 0 64 59 5 BAL On Baltimore's side of the field, Keenum went 7-of-14 for 46 yards and an interception. This is largely why Kai Forbath ended up kicking six field goals. 15. Matt Moore MIA 13/21 188 2 1 1 54 54 0 NYJ Jay Cutler has seven deep completions (passes that traveled more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage) in six games with the Dolphins this year. Moore had three in the final 23 minutes of this game, including a 28-yard touchdown to Kenny Stills. He also threw three incompletions on deep balls, one of them intercepted, so it wasn't all rainbows and sunshine. But if Cutler does end up missing extended time with his rib injuries, the Dolphins offense should at least be more fun to watch. 16. Philip Rivers LACH 16/26 183 2 0 3 52 52 0 DEN The Chargers game plan against Denver: avoid deep passes unless absolutely necessary, and even then, practice restraint. Rivers only threw two deep passes against the Broncos, one on second-and-19, one on third-and-14. Both traveled exactly 16 yards downfield, the shortest possible distance a pass can go and still be considered deep. Both were incomplete. 17. Jay Cutler MIA 12/16 141 2 1 2 16 16 0 NYJ Cutler made the worst of bad situations, but the best of good ones. He had one pass inside his own 10; it was intercepted. He had two passes inside the Jets 10; both resulted in touchdowns. 18. Carson Palmer ARI 10/18 122 0 1 1 13 13 0 LARM Palmer only had four plays inside L.A.'s 40, all on second or third down. Two were incomplete passes, one was a sack for an 11-yard loss, and one was a 6-yard completion on third-and-8. 19. Jared Goff LARM 22/37 235 1 1 1 10 -3 12 ARI The Rams won this game 33-0 and it easily could have been a lot worse. Goff had a terrible day in the red zone, going 1-of-7 for 18 yards over four trips. That one completion did result in a touchdown, but he also threw an interception from the 21. 20. Brett Hundley GB 12/25 87 0 1 1 -8 -35 27 NO Hundley did not throw a single pass in the red zone. He only had five passes in New Orleans territory, completing two of them for 13 yards. On third downs, he went 3-of-7 for 27 yards with one conversion and one interception. 21. Cody Kessler CLE 10/19 121 0 1 2 -14 -14 0 TEN Kessler completed each of his first four passes for 54 total yards and three first downs. Then Joe Thomas was injured. From that point forward Kessler went 6-of-15 for 67 yards with an interception and two sacks. He had four successes in four plays with Thomas, three success in 17 plays without him. On third downs, Kessler went 2-of-8 for 19 yards one conversion, one interception, and one sack. 22. Mitchell Trubisky CHI 4/7 107 0 0 4 -14 -12 -2 CAR OK, here we go. This game was so weird it literally broke our system. Our parser actually missed Trubisky's game on it's first run-through because, while he had 11 dropbacks, he only threw seven passes. The Bears have now won two games in eight days with 10 or fewer completions in each win. You have to go back to the 2012 Bills to find a team that had two or more such wins in an entire season. Five teams since 2006 have gone an entire game with fewer than 10 passes. All five won. Three of them were coached by John Fox. Only two of Trubisky's completions were even successful plays: a 24-yard completion to Zach Miller and a 70-yard completion to Tarik Cohen. His other nine plays had a net loss of 9 yards. His median gain was zero yards. Only two of his attempts came on first down, though one was the 70-yarder, so clearly he benefited from the element of surprise. He had three plays on Carolina's side of the 50: a 5-yard gain on second-and-15 and two sacks. He threw one pass to a wide receiver, an 8-yard gain on third-and-13 to someone named Tanner Gentry, who sounds more like the opening act at the Grand Ole Opry than an NFL wideout. As discussed at length in the essay and comments of Derrik Klassen's Film Room piece last week, Trubisky almost literally can not throw to his left. He was 0-for-2 throwing to his left against Carolina, and is now 3-of-11 for 27 yards when throwing to his left this year. I wrote 70 words about Trubisky for every pass he completed this week. 23. Josh McCown NYJ 17/27 209 3 1 3 -14 -13 -1 MIA GABBERT WATCH UPDATE: Another week, another few inches closer to a record that somehow feels farther away. McCown is now at -175 passing DYAR this year and -1,506 for his career, and while that's an impressive threshold, it still leaves him way short of Blaine Gabbert's record of -1,928. And even with Carson Palmer injured, the Cardinals have turned to Drew Stanton, meaning Gabbert isn't even getting a chance to play well and close the gap from the other direction. McCown was actually second behind Derek Carr in first-quarter DYAR this week, going 7-of-10 for 148 yards with two touchdowns and a sack. This has been a thing all year. McCown is in the top 10 in first-quarter DYAR this season, but only DeShone Kizer has worse DYAR from the second quarter through overtime. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 24. Marcus Mariota TEN 21/34 203 0 0 2 -35 -38 4 CLE Tennessee needed four field goals and overtime to win in large part because Mariota was so ineffective in scoring range. Inside the Cleveland 40, he went 9-of-13, but only gained 53 yards and one first down. 25. Eli Manning NYG 19/39 134 1 0 1 -53 -53 0 SEA Throwing to his right -- the side of Seattle's defense where Richard Sherman usually lines up -- Manning went 4-of-12 for 27 yards. Most of those throws (including a 5-yard touchdown) went to tight end Evan Engram. On throws to wide receivers to the right, Manning went 1-of-3 for 15 yards. 26. Joe Flacco BAL 27/39 186 1 0 5 -55 -55 0 MIN Flacco's longest completion this week gained 23 yards. Mitchell Trubisky had two completions this week longer than that. And it wasn't for lack of trying -- Flacco went 1-of-6 on deep passes. To be fair to him, those six passes were thrown to Chris Moore and Griff Whalen, which is not a recipe for success for any quarterback. Also, whichever cornerback plays on the defensive right side is doing a fine job for Minnesota. On throws to his left, Flacco went 5-of-8 for 6 yards (not a typo) with no first downs and only one successful play. 27. Jacoby Brissett IND 22/37 200 0 0 10 -56 -50 -6 JAC (The following all-sack Quick Reads comment has been brought to you by the Jacksonville Jaguars defense.) The Jaguars sacked Brisset six times on first down, twice on second down, and twice on third down. They sacked him once in the red zone, twice in the front zone, five times between the 40s, and twice inside the Indianapolis 40. They did not sack him in the first quarter, but they had three in the second, three in the third, and four in the fourth. Brissett was sacked more times in this game than Jameis Winston, Dak Prescott, or Drew Brees have been sacked all season. (This comment has been brought to you by the Jacksonville Jaguars defense.) 28. DeShone Kizer CLE 12/20 114 0 2 0 -68 -68 0 TEN In hindsight, the kindest thing Hue Jackson could have done for Kizer would have been to bench him right before halftime. Then Kizer would have had about 100 mor DYAR and been way up between Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler on this table. Instead Kizer threw an interception to end the first half, then another interception to start the second half, then he got benched, and here we are. Really, up to that point, things were going fine. There were 27 quarterbacks this week with at least 20 dropbacks, and Kizer's success rate of 45 percent ranked 13th in that group. I mean, in basically two quarters, he threw for nine first downs. Marcus Mariota, the other starter in this game, had eight first downs in five quarters. 29. C.J. Beathard SF 22/38 235 0 0 5 -71 -88 17 DAL Second down was a particular struggle for Beathard. He went 5-of-9 for 34 yards with only three successful plays and one first down. Meanwhile, he was also sacked four times, fumbling twice. Really, it was just the five sacks (and the fumbles that came with them) that were Beathard's undoing this week. Take all sacks away from all quarterbacks, and Beathard would have finished 17th in Quick Reads instead of 29th. 30. Andy Dalton CIN 17/30 140 2 2 4 -78 -73 -5 PIT The Bengals trailed just 20-14 at halftime, Dalton was playing well, and this game was very much winnable. Then came the third quarter from Hell and the fourth quarter from somwhere only slightly better, like the DMV or your mother-in-law's house. In the third quarter, he went 3-of-7 for 19 yards with two interceptions; in the fourth, he went 3-of-5 for 15 yards with four sacks. In 16 second-half dropbacks, that's 2 net yards (not a typo), one first down, and two turnovers. By DYAR, Dalton was the worst third-quarter quarterback (not to be confused with a buck-and-a-quarter quarterstaff) this week, and the third-worst fourth-quarter quarterback. Add that up, and only Josh McCown had even half as much negative DYAR in the second half in Week 7. 31. Cam Newton CAR 21/34 211 0 2 5 -84 -82 -1 CHI Five sacks, two interceptions, and a fumble will get you down at this end of the table, but the other factor dragging Newton down is the way he finished the game. The Panthers had four drives in the game's final 20 minutes, each down 17-3. On those four drives, Newton went 5-of-10 for 47 yards with an interception and a sack. 32. Drew Stanton ARI 5/14 62 0 1 2 -91 -93 3 LARM Stanton entered the game with Arizona down 13-0 in the second quarter, so this next comment is not totally fair, but still: Stanton did not throw for a first down until his last pass of the third quarter, by which point the Cardinals were down 26-0. Stanton only threw for two first downs in this game, on gains of 25 and 23 yards. That means his other 14 dropbacks (including two sacks) gained only 6 yards. On the Rams' half of the field, he went 0-for-4 with a sack. 33. Trevor Siemian DEN 25/35 207 0 1 5 -98 -93 -5 LACH How to Get Your Team Shut Out, by Trevor Siemian: Inside the Chargers' 40, Siemian went 5-of-7 for 38 yards (a total that is skewed by a 17-yard gain on fourth-and-26) with three sacks, two fumbles, and an interception. On third downs, he went 6-of-9 for 59 yards with a sack-fumble and only two conversions. He also had another fourth-down play; it was intercepted. He finished with 13 failed completions for 69 yards, both the highest marks of any quarterback this week. Deshaun Watson has only gained 66 yards on failed completions this season.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Ezekiel Elliott DAL 26 147 2 1/3 72 1 99 79 20 SF The most impressive part of Elliott's day wasn't his long reception, or his seven first downs, or his five runs for 10 or more yards. The most impressive part is that in 26 carries -- 22 of them with Dallas ahead, 11 of them with Dallas ahead by 24-plus points in the second half -- Elliott was hit for no gain or a loss just one time. 2. Le'Veon Bell PIT 35 134 0 3/3 58 0 66 42 23 CIN Bell now has 169 carries in seven games this season, or 24.1 carries per game. When Larry Johnson set the NFL record with 416 carries, he averaged 26.0 carries per game. At this rate, we'll by re-running the Curse of 370 piece by Christmas Day (when Bell and the Steelers play the Texans in Houston on Monday Night Football). As for this week, Bell had seven first downs on the ground and three runs of 10 yards or more, though his longest carry gained just 15 yards. He was hit for no gain or a loss six times, but that's not so bad over 35 carries. 3. T.J. Yeldon JAC 9 122 1 2/2 15 0 48 49 -1 IND Only two of Yeldon's runs gaine first downs, but all gained 2 yards or more, four gained 10 yards or more, and the longest was a 58-yard touchdown. 4. Todd Gurley LARM 22 106 1 4/8 48 0 44 43 1 ARI Only two runs for no gain or a loss, with six first downs, three runs of 10 yards or more, and an 18-yard touchdown. 5. Matt Forte NYJ 7 41 0 5/5 41 0 34 24 10 MIA One hit for no gain, but Forte's six other runs all gained at least 3 yards, and two gained 10 yards or more. He also had two first downs as a receiver, with a 13-yard gain on second-and-6 and a 21-yard gain on third-and-19.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Ezekiel Elliott DAL 26 147 2 1/3 72 1 99 79 20 SF 2. T.J. Yeldon JAC 9 122 1 2/2 15 0 48 49 -1 IND 3. Todd Gurley LARM 22 106 1 4/8 48 0 44 43 1 ARI 4. Le'Veon Bell PIT 35 134 0 3/3 58 0 66 42 23 CIN 5. Aaron Jones GB 17 131 1 3/5 7 0 16 34 -18 NO I saw Jones' receiving DYAR and assumed he must have had a fumble, but no -- his DYAR was so bad because he only gained 7 yards on five throws. Things were much better on the ground, though -- five first downs, three runs of 10 or more yards, a 46-yard touchdown, and only two hits for no gain or a loss.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

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DYAR Opp 1. Carlos Hyde SF 14 68 0 4/8 20 0 -34 1 -35 DAL Quite a boom-or-bust day as a runner, with five first downs on the ground, four of them on runs of 10 or more yards, but also five hits for no gain or a loss. Like Jones, he didn't fumble on any of his catches. But he did have incompletes on second-and-5 and fourth-and-1, and his yardage total is skewed by a 6-yard catch on third-and-20.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

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TD Rec Rec

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TD Total

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DYAR Opp 1. Isaiah Crowell CLE 17 35 0 4/6 36 0 -29 -25 -3 TEN The problems in Cleveland go beyond the quarterback position. Crowell's longest gain was a 7-yarder, and that was also his only first down on the day. He was hit for no gain or a loss three times, with failures to convert on third-and-1 and second-and-4.

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR Opp 1. Amari Cooper OAK 11 19 210 19.1 2 65 KC Sincere congratulations to Amari Cooper for making last week's column look really, really stupid. Mind you, Cooper still has negative DYAR on the year, but we can probably put the "worst season ever" talk to bed. Against Kansas City, Cooper's 11 receptions produced nine first downs, including touchdowns of 38 and 45 yards and two other catches of 20 or more yards. In addition to his 19 official targets, Cooper picked up 47 yards and another first down on a DPI. That play is accounted for in his DYAR. 2. Ted Ginn NO 7 7 141 20.1 0 62 GB Five of Ginn's completions resulted in first downs, including two gains of 40 or more yards and a conversion on third-and-17. 3. Mike Evans TB 7 10 91 13.0 1 52 BUF All of Evans' receptions resulted in first downs, including three third-down conversions. One of those was his fourth-quarter touchdown that put the Bucs up 27-20 with less than four minutes to go before they lost in regulation. 4. Deonte Thompson BUF 4 4 107 26.8 0 47 TB Thompson's totals include 50 DYAR receiving, -4 DYAR rushing for his one carry for no yards. This was just the second 100-yard game of his seven-year career. All four of his receptions produced at least 13 yards and a first down, the longest a 44-yarder. Two of those catches were third-down conversions. 5. Kenny Stills MIA 6 9 85 14.2 2 46 NYJ Stills' highlights included a 2-yard touchdown, a 28-yard touchdown on third-and-7, a 36-yard catch, and a 28-yard DPI on third-and-8.