Rob Carpenter is batting a thousand.

The 48-year-old pastor from Brandon, Florida, says he has voted for every winning presidential candidate – including both Barack Obama and Donald Trump – ever since he was old enough to vote.

But Carpenter, who doesn't identify with a political party, tells The Independent that Trump isn’t guaranteed his vote in 2020.

“A lot could happen by next year,” he says. “Trump could easily do something real stupid.”

What’s more, Carpenter also says he doesn’t believe the incumbent president is guaranteed a victory the next time voters flock to the polls.

He describes a “deep divide” within the US political system, in which he sees the Democratic Party as “moving a little too far to the left” while the Republicans veer “towards whichever direction Trump is going.”

(Courtesy of Rob Carpenter (Courtesy of Rob Carpenter)

The polarization is causing Americans to join like-minded tribes, Carpenter suggests, leaving folks like him – who consider themselves to be politically somewhere in the middle – without a home.

Carpenter has lived in the Tampa area for nearly 10 years. He runs a local cemetery and is a prominent member of the local faith community.

Barack Obama turned the economy around, he says, but it’s only got better under Trump. Carpenter, who is black, says he appreciates the fact that the unemployment rate has continued to lower for minorities under the current administration, and supports the president’s executive order that makes funding for Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) a White House priority.

Admittedly, Carpenter suggests Trump would have an easier time winning his re-election if it weren’t for many of the scandals of his own making.

He describes the president as a “bull in a china shop” who is opening the public’s eyes to everyday corruption, greed and selfishness in politics. Carpenter cites several controversies under Trump that existed in previous administrations as well, including family members working in the White House or contributing to its agenda.

That's true, I say, but I also note that the Trump administration has flagrantly ignored all sorts of ethical standards we once held presidents to, from the Hatch Act to having Trump’s own children take on official roles as White House senior advisers.

Carpenter says he agrees – to an extent. While Trump’s dealings appear somewhat questionable to him, he says he’s more convinced that Democrats are simply fulfilling a years-long goal in impeaching the president ahead of the 2020 elections.

“It’s been in their plans to do it since day one,” he says. “I think that because [Democrats] have the majority in the House they probably will get to impeachment, but I don’t think he’s going to be removed from office.”

“If they fire someone they fire someone,” he adds, “but I think the issue this close to the election cycle could set a precedent that anytime someone comes in and they’re not doing a good job in some people’s eyes, we can just get rid of them.”

Carpenter’s politics are interesting in the Trump age – while he can certainly be considered a supporter of the president, he is not an avowed loyalist or a staunchly entrenched member of the Keep America Great base.

“If the election was held today, yes, I’m voting for Trump,” he says.

Members of Congressional Black Caucus offer no reaction as Donald Trump speaks on African American unemployment lows

But then he begins to note some of the president’s shortcomings. “His foreign policy is a little skittish to me,” he says. “I don’t understand what he’s doing with that.”

Carpenter is paying close attention to the campaign trail – “I study, I watch, I read, I make a decision by weighing all options” – and says he has his eyes on a number of young Democrats who he believes could eventually become president – if not this time around then later on down the road.

He brings up Pete Buttigieg, who would be the first openly gay president if elected, noting how the millennial mayor of South Bend, Indiana, is “even-keeled” and “focusing on the issues”.

“The only issue in my view is that with older African Americans who have a faith background, they may have a hard time with that,” he says. “But I like the fact that him being a gay married man isn’t exactly one of his talking points. He’s really dealing with the issues. He’s got potential, but it’s going to be a hard ride with the African Americans.”

He also says Tulsi Gabbard “has a lot of potential,” citing her “anti-war, anti-imperialism views”.

“I hate that we’re all over the place with all these wars. She’s got an opportunity there,” he adds.

When it comes to Joe Biden, the current Democratic frontrunner, Carpenter says he doesn’t seem like he’s going to make it across the finish line.