Sens. Alexander and Cornyn could be up for the No. 2 position in the GOP hierarchy. | AP Photos Senate GOP whip race heats up

Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl’s decision not to seek reelection has set off an under-the-radar campaign for the Senate Republican whip job, a race in which insider politics will matter much more than the concerns of tea party activists and the desires of the Republican base.

The race could pit the mild-mannered, affable Lamar Alexander of Tennessee against John Cornyn, a Texas conservative who runs the Senate GOP campaign arm. The wild card in the race could be South Dakota’s John Thune, a rising star who might eye the upper ranks of Senate leadership as a preferred path if he forgoes a run for president in 2012.


These Senate leadership races are the ultimate insider’s campaign — only the sitting GOP senators and incoming freshman class of 2013 will vote after next November’s elections — so the politicking involves plenty of behind-the-scenes lobbying, fundraising and favor-trading as senators try to lock down votes.

Whomever GOP senators choose for their next No. 2 leader could have far-reaching consequences, because the winner will be heir apparent to the No. 1 slot held by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). McConnell has decided he won’t endorse a candidate and will completely stay out of the race, sources say.

Alexander, No. 3 in the leadership, is the only one who has officially jumped into the whip race. But insiders are predicting that Cornyn, current chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, would make a strong candidate once he gives up his chairmanship after the 2012 elections. Thune, No. 4 in leadership as policy chairman, may choose to run for Alexander’s current position of Republican Conference chairman, but he could very well emerge as a candidate for the whip job, sources say.

All three men boast conservative credentials, but all three have upset the right by some of their votes and actions. Some tea party leaders are calling for fresh blood in the Senate leadership, but none of that really matters in a campaign based almost exclusively on insider politics.

“Lamar is a fabulous senator and so talented, but I suspect you’ll have some other outstanding senators seeking that, so it’ll be interesting to see how it’ll play out,” Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions, one of the chamber’s most conservative Republicans, told POLITICO. “I think we may have a contest, and may the best one win.”

The prospective candidates might want to follow the McConnell model of running leadership races. In September 2004, McConnell had quietly secured enough commitments to become the next Republican leader even when the race was still two years away, enough to scare off a prospective challenge from then-Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

Alexander seems to be taking that tack, announcing Thursday that he’d run for the post — a move that could allow him to lock up votes early — before his potential competitors even put their hats in the ring. Still, it’s entirely possible that rank-and-file senators will closely watch how the prospective leaders position themselves over the next two years, withholding their support until they secure the best possible deals for themselves. Moreover, nothing is assured in a race that will be determined behind closed doors and by secret ballot.

There’s another caveat: Cornyn could be in a strong position to become Republican whip if the GOP retakes the majority in the 2012 elections.

“Cornyn is fabulous,” Sessions said. “He did a great, great job with the Senate committee. He’s got rock solid values. I’m a big fan of John Cornyn, also. I consider him one of our most talented senators. ... These are always tough things.”

Cornyn has certainly built goodwill among his colleagues with his work through the NRSC, which helped win seven additional GOP seats since the 2008 elections. Cornyn constantly was on the road and held more fundraising events in Washington and throughout the country than any of his colleagues. According to Federal Election Commission numbers, Cornyn helped increase the NRSC’s fundraising by 18 percent since 2008, cutting into the Democratic fundraising advantage by $70 million. From Texas donors alone, Cornyn helped raise $4.7 million for GOP incumbents and challengers last cycle.

Like Cornyn, Alexander is well-liked and respected by his colleagues, ranging from archconservative South Carolinian Jim DeMint to moderate Mainer Olympia Snowe.

In the most recent election cycle, Alexander was credited with raising more than $2.1 million for the NRSC and Senate candidates. The number includes $1.1 million in donations he made to Senate candidates, as well as $250,000 he transferred to the NRSC from his Senate campaign account and political action committee. In the past three election cycles combined, Alexander’s political action committee gave GOP Senate candidates more money than any other leadership PAC, an aide said.

In his capacity as conference chairman, Alexander is seen as a senator who works well with his colleagues, is not a self-promoter and is generally inclusive in developing the party’s message. GOP senators have praised his ability to drive home the message against the Obama agenda — even with a kinder, gentler style than some colleagues.

Thune, likewise, is seen as a rising star in the party — and if he forgoes a run for president he could very well try to become GOP whip. Or he might settle for the No. 3 position that Alexander plans to vacate. Thune is credited with helping raise $1.6 million for his GOP colleagues in the most recent cycle, though he sat on a big war chest to prepare for a potential presidential run.

None of the three leading candidates has a perfect record with the conservative base.

All voted for the Troubled Asset Relief Program in 2008, and all have been significant earmarkers in the past. Alexander, who sits on the Appropriations Committee, does not come across as a GOP ideologue and is seen as a senator who is open to compromise with Democrats — something the tea party might hold against him. While he maintains a conservative voting record, he has at times broken with his party, as when he voted to confirm Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court and when he voted last December to ratify Obama’s New START nuclear-arms agreement with Russia.

Cornyn, too, has upset some in his party with some of his decisions as NRSC chairman to back less conservative GOP candidates in primaries — most notably Charlie Crist in Florida in the 2010 Senate race before the then-governor left the GOP to run against Marco Rubio as an independent.

“I think Lamar Alexander is the odds-on favorite, though I think conservatives would be much more comfortable with Cornyn,” said Erick Erickson, a conservative commentator for CNN and RedState.com.

Some on the right say it’s time for someone who represents the right wing in the leadership.

“It’s important to show that the leadership is taking the new folks and the tea party seriously,” said Phil Moffett, a tea party favorite who is running an uphill bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in McConnell’s home state of Kentucky.

But, as one senior GOP aide said Thursday, “the only electorate that matters is the senators in the room.”

Marin Cogan contributed to this report.