The Steelers 2017 Schedule in 4 Quarters – Part 1

The announcement of the schedule for the NFL season has become an event. I am not exactly sure why, but being as it comes during the offseason and after the draft, I guess it’s just another way to keep people thinking about football as if we ever stop.

At this point, several months have come and gone since the NFL Network broadcast their two-hour 2017 NFL Schedule Release special. There has been a lot made of the Steelers playing five primetime games (including an absurd four in a row) and the fact that the Steelers once again have to play on Christmas day.

I don’t like to make predictions on the schedule, because I’ll pick the Steelers to go 16-0. Moreso I don’t like to make them too early because frankly there are a lot of moves that can be made, problems that can occur, and roster changes that happen between when the schedule is announced and the beginning of training camp. However, every year I look at the schedule just before teams arrive for training camp, and then again after the preseason is over. It’s about that time, so I’d like to break the season down into quarters and take a look at how it might unfold.

But before I do so, I want to note that our fellow SCU writer Christina Rivers wrote a great article discussing the strength of schedule. So, I’m not going to discuss it beyond saying that the upcoming schedule appears to be less difficult than in recent years. Still, it provides more than a few potential stumbling blocks along the “Stairway to Seven”.

First Quarter – @Browns, Vikings, @Bears, @Ravens

The first thing that jumps out at you during the first “quarter” of the season is that the Steelers are playing three games on the road. Everyone has pontificated about Pittsburgh’s road woes, and at the same time, I think we have somewhat debunked the idea that the Steelers are a “bad” road team.

Last year the Steelers went 5-3 on the road with wins against the Bengals, Bills, Browns, Colts, and Redskins. Their three losses away were to the Dolphins, Ravens, and Eagles.

It is worth noting that the Steelers started the season with a road win (Washington) and then dropped their next three road games. Over the past five seasons, the Steelers have gone 1-3, 2-2, 2-2, 1-3, and 1-3 in their first four road games, showing there’s a trend that they may not be the best road team early in the year.

At the minimum, the good news is this slate isn’t loaded with top tier teams, but again, that nagging suspicion that the Steelers play badly on the road against bad teams rears its ugly head. In those last five seasons, during their first four road games, the Steelers have only played a team with a winning record twice: the Philadelphia Eagles in 2016 and the Carolina Panthers in 2014. Six times they played opponents who had a .500 record, and 12 times they played teams who, at the time, had losing records.

Also important, is that since these games are usually early in the season, some of the teams who had “losing records” (like Miami last year) ended up with winning seasons and in some cases, made the playoffs. Yet, there is no denying that the Steelers early road record over the past five seasons (7 – 11) isn’t very good, and that is cause for some concern.

Week 1 – Cleveland

That being said, it’s hard to pick against the Steelers in game one, despite opening on the road.

It’s Cleveland, the Browns are a team full of question marks, and there is already a bit of bulletin board talk with number one pick Myles Garrett. If you don’t remember, Randy Moss asked Garrett during the draft which AFC North quarterback he’s most eager to take down. He responded:

“Big Ben!… Big Ben is a Super Bowl winner and I heard he’s hard to take down. So I’m coming for him first (to) chop him down.”

That got a lot of play, and expect it to be brought up again before that first game. Still, with questions about who is going to start at quarterback for the Browns (don’t be surprised if it ends up being Brock Osweiler) and how much progress they will have made, you have to think the Steelers have the edge. I expect them to come home from Cleveland 1-0.

Steelers 35 – Browns 17

Week 2 – Minnesota

The home opener against Minnesota will be an emotional one. Bob Labriola announced in his “Asked & Answered” column that the Steelers would “honor Dan Rooney during a regular season game at Heinz Field, and the team will wear a commemorative decal/patch on their uniform throughout the season.”

It hasn’t been officially announced when the Steelers will choose to honor Mr. Rooney, but the home opener is one possibility. Regardless, it will be an emotional day for the staff, players, and coaches as they enter into their first season after the passing his passing.

The Vikings will have some questions of their own coming into Heinz Field about who their starting quarterback will be: Sam Bradford (the likely starter) or Teddy Bridgewater (who is recovering from a horrific knee injury).

Last year the Vikings started 5-0 before going 3-8 over the remainder of the season. Which team will show up?

They have talent on both sides of the ball, but I’m just not terrified of Stefon Diggs (903 yards, 3 TDs) and Adam Thielen (967 yards, 5 TDs) as wideouts, nor of Latavius Murray at running back (788 yards, 12 TDs in 2016 with the Raiders). The Steelers clearly have more firepower, and assuming they come into the game healthy, they should have no trouble with the Vikes. I think they jump out in front early and make Minnesota one-dimensional. T.J. Watt could get his first sack against a less than mobile Bradford.

Watch out for Martavis Bryant in this game. Just a feeling.

Steelers 42 – Vikings 10

Week 3 – Chicago

The Steelers don’t visit the Windy City often – the last time was in 2009, and they lost 17-14. In fact, like a certain Week 3 road trip last year, the Steelers don’t play too well in Chicago either. They are 1-11 in Chicago and their only win in Chi-town was in 1995, in an overtime thriller 37-34.

That being said, the Bears were awful last year (3-13), and nobody really expects them to make a 180-degree turnaround this year. They got their lunch money stolen by the 49ers in this year’s draft so they could select North Carolina quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. They also signed Mike Glennon and Mark Sanchez during the offseason compete in camp and added wide receivers Victor Cruz (formerly of the New York Giants) and a Markus Wheaton (formerly of the Steelers).

Regardless, the Bears are not a good team. They aren’t going to be a good team. There’s a chance they will already be 0-2 at this point after games against Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Thus, the Steelers should win this game.

Should.

However, there is the potential for one of those early season flops, and they could be looking ahead to playing Baltimore the following week. This isn’t the Eagles of last year, who were 3-0 in Week 3, and the Bears also not a Dolphins team who eventually made the playoffs. Neither of those teams were as potentially bad last year as the Bears might be this year.

It may not be pretty, but I think the Steelers pick up their second all-time win in Chicago, leaving with a 3-0 record before heading to Baltimore.

Steelers 23 – Bears 14

Week 4 – Baltimore

Freaking Baltimore.

The last time the Steelers won in Baltimore was 2012. We all remember Charlie Batch so fondly for that game. The last time Ben Roethlisberger beat them in Baltimore was 2010. They are 9-12 lifetime against the Ravens in Baltimore.

The Ravens, as Christina Rivers discussed in her offseason Rival Report, have already suffered injuries during the offseason that will impact them during the upcoming season.

They focused on their defense during the draft, grabbing edge rushers Tyus Bowser and Tim Williams, and defensive end Chris Wormley, to go with first round pick, cornerback Marlon Humphrey.

The offense, which was not overflowing with weapons last year, had to depend on free agent signings like Jeremy Maclin and the hope that some of their undrafted college free agents and players already on the roster somehow turn into credible threats.

Bottom line, expect them to be much like they were last year: tough defensively and sporadic offensively. Joe Flacco will throw deep balls and try to draw pass interference calls just as he always does. The Ravens will try and harass Big Ben as much as possible, and provide little room for running the ball. They will hope to keep it close and win with Justin Tucker kicking field goals.

This is a game I may change my mind about after the preseason is over, but until I actually see how the Steelers are playing, I can’t buck the history they have in Baltimore. This is a rival that knows us as well as they know themselves and they always play us tough.

Steelers drop their first game to go 3-1.

Ravens 17 – Steelers 13

Conclusion

If the Steelers end the first quarter of the season 3-1 I will not be upset. The truth is they could easily be 4-0 if they can remember how to win in Baltimore. There are potential distractions (Le’Veon Bell, Alejandro Villanueva) that could become issues during camp, but if the team can come together and stay healthy, they could be so potent that they simply overwhelm opposing teams.

It’s exciting to imagine Antonio Brown, Le’Veon, Martavis Bryant, Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster, Eli Rogers, Sammie Coates, Jesse James and Ben Roethlisberger all on the field and tormenting other teams.

I can’t wait to see what kind of progress Artie Burns and Sean Davis make in year two, as well as Javon Hargrave.

What will the rookies like Cam Sutton and T.J. Watt contribute? Will Bud Dupree take the offseason work he’s done and translate it into a monster year? What will getting Cam Heyward back mean to the defense? Will Stephon Tuitt and Ryan Shazier continue to improve, and what kind of season will Vince Williams have now that he’s the starter?

So many questions and they are all just speculation at this point. Still, a 3-1 first quarter of the season would be an excellent way to start a run for the Steelers seventh Lombardi trophy.

Next: The Second Quarter