The above image floating around on social media is purportedly Turkey’s plan (preference would be more accurate) for taking the city of Raqqa from the so-called Islamic State (ISIS). While commentators are focusing on the probably untenable 210km path from al-Bab to Raqqa to dismiss the feasibility of the above scenario, the real focus should be on the green arrow pointing straight down (south) to the city. If Turkey and its anti-Assad rebel allies marched south from Turkey to Raqqa in such an operation, this would cut Rojava’s Kobanî in half and split Rojava geographically into 3 separate cantons: Afrin, Kobanî-west, and Kobanî/east-Hasakah.

The only way such an operation would be possible is if a significant number of U.S. boots on the ground were to accompany Turkish forces in the march south from Turkey to Raqqa through Kobanî. The anti-ISIS coalition infighting between Turkish/rebel forces and Syrian-Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) U.S. forces that erupted after Operation Euphrates Shield was launched against ISIS only ended when American troops got physically involved to keep its nominal allies from shooting at each other.

So far, the Trump administration has not made any move or statement indicating a shift from the previous administration’s one-sided reliance on the YPG to fight ISIS in Syria although news reports have surfaced that Trump’s team scrapped Obama’s plan to take Raqqa. Led by General James Mattis, Trump’s Department of Defense recently approved a holdover request from U.S. commanders in the field to supply YPG with armored vehicles, so clearly not everything from that plan was scrapped. The incredibly dysfunctional state of America’s national-security decision-making process at the moment means that it will probably be months before we know what Trump’s plan to take Raqqa from ISIS consists of, his January 28 executive order mandating the creation of a plan to wipe out ISIS within 30 days notwithstanding.

The big strategic decision Trump will have to make is whether to continue damaging relations with Turkey (a NATO member) by continuing robust support for the YPG or mend fences with Turkey by reducing/limiting support for the YPG and stepping up support for Turkey’s allies, the rebels. Whatever he decides, Turkey’s plan to take Raqqa and split Kobanî is neither politically nor militarily feasible absent American approval and support.