Tim Ball POLITICO Transatlantic Caucus Insiders: EU failing on migration The dismal response by leaders is stirring an extremist backlash that threatens the bloc.

A poor European response to an unprecedented influx of migrants is stirring an extremist backlash, according to participants in POLITICO’s Transatlantic Caucus, who urged EU leaders to take stronger, long-term measures to address the crisis at this week’s summit in Brussels.

The continuing tide of new arrivals — 710,000 have been detected so far this year — and a rise of anti-immigrant populism have overtaken Vladimir Putin and the euro crisis as the biggest challenges for Europe since our first caucus in June.

The vast majority of the more than 100 diplomats, politicians and advisers from EU countries and the U.S. who took part in the third POLITICO Transatlantic Caucus assessed the EU’s initial response to the crisis as mediocre, at best.

Just one person rated the EU's response — which has included €1 billion in humanitarian aid, setting up “hot spots” to process migrants, and a plan to relocate 160,000 refugees — as very good. Poor (44 percent) and average (32 percent) were how most of those surveyed evaluated leaders’ efforts; 10 percent said the response had been very poor.

Draft conclusions of the summit starting Thursday, obtained by POLITICO, suggest EU leaders will discuss shared border and coast-guard services as well as boosting aid to Turkey, which hosts about 2 million refugees from Syria and Iraq.

With Turkey increasingly seen as the key to stemming the flow of people into Europe, leaders are ready to support a joint action plan with Ankara, which would include a substantial increase in “political and financial engagement.”

"To deal with the [migration] crisis effectively we have to solve the Syrian crisis" — POLITICO Caucus participant.

The EU could also boost the mandate of its Frontex border agency to enable it to return migrants “on its own initiative,” according to the draft conclusions, which build on proposals from interior ministers who met in Luxembourg last week.

Participants in the POLITICO Transatlantic Caucus included former World Bank President and U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, NATO Deputy Secretary-General Alexander Vershbow, European Commission Vice President Kristalina Georgieva, Italy’s Ambassador to the EU Stefano Sannino, the EU foreign policy chief’s Head of Cabinet Stefano Manservisi, and the president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs (and former U.S. Ambassador to NATO) Ivo Daalder.

To see a full list of those who took part, click here.

How would you rate the EU’s response to the migration crisis?

Many caucus participants believe Brussels is hamstrung by recalcitrant EU capitals on the migration issue, with one writing that European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk should “at the very least ... have admitted the need to adapt Schengen to the new challenge.” Some of the 26 European countries in the Schengen Area, which is free of internal border controls, reintroduced them this summer as an emergency measures to deal with the influx, undermining a pillar of European integration. “[Juncker and Tusk’s] angelic silence on the issue is a bonanza for populists of all kinds,” added a caucus participant, who like all those taking part only agreed to be quoted on an anonymous basis.

The Putin conundrum

EU leaders are under pressure to switch from crisis-management to finding longer-term solutions to cope with the highest number of displaced persons globally since records began. “To deal with the crisis effectively we have to solve the Syrian crisis,” said another caucus participant. “Short of that, refugees will simply keep coming.” Russian President Vladimir Putin’s surprise military intervention in Syria this autumn has made him more of a player in that war. There was no consensus among POLITICO’s group of policy insiders on how to deal with Moscow: 13 percent favored doing nothing, 27 percent backed further sanctions, 19 percent wanted a no-fly zone in Syria, and others favored a combination of measures to keep up the pressure while leaving room for dialogue.

Putin "will budge — we shouldn't" — caucus participant.

“Punishment and actions against Putin need to be considered against the fact that we need Putin to solve the refugee crisis and to end the war in Syria,” said one of those polled. “A comprehensive package dealing with Ukraine/Syria at the same time might be a solution.” “Stay the course — that’s the most important,” said another, adding that Putin “will budge — we shouldn’t.”

Should the U.S. and European allies in NATO take stronger action against Vladimir Putin? And if so, what?

The caucus rated “the rise of extremist populist parties and threats to democracy” as the second most urgent challenge for Europe, where far-right parties are already making waves — scoring advances in city elections in Vienna, in opinion polls in Sweden, and staging anti-Muslim rallies in Germany.

Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans warned last month that a failure to solve the refugee crisis would trigger “a surge of the extreme right across the European continent.”

Tough love

The refugee crisis threatens a split with Central and Eastern European countries like Hungary who have taken a hardline stance, rejecting refugee resettlement quotas and, in Budapest’s case, building a razor-wire fence to keep them out.

However, a clear majority (61 percent) of caucus members backed the decision by the European Parliament’s civil liberties committee last week not to threaten Hungary with the suspension of its EU voting rights. Amnesty International and the liberal ALDE group in the European Parliament want tougher action against Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

One Brussels insider in the caucus said: “There has been no behind-the-scenes, tough-love effort yet to change Orbán’s course.” Suspending Hungary’s voting rights should only be discussed “if all other options are exhausted,” said the participant.

On Brexit, which rates little more than a mention on the agenda for this week’s summit, 55 percent of those polled think Britain will stay in the EU. POLITICO reported this week that U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron has until early November to explain his wish-list of changes to Britain’s terms of membership, or risk the issue losing its prominent place on the agenda of December’s EU summit.

“He might get some changes which are necessary anyway, plus some token gestures,” said one caucus participant. “But nothing groundbreaking.”

To see the full survey results click here.