Italian newspapers were among the first — back in March — to float the rumor that New York’s charismatic new archbishop, Timothy M. Dolan, was sure to be made a cardinal at the next big meeting of Roman Catholic prelates in Rome. The rumor sustained a robust life on its own, fed by Catholic news media and the eternal curiosity of many American Catholics about the nebulous world of Vatican power.

Then on Wednesday, Pope Benedict XVI named 24 new cardinals to be installed on Nov. 20. The list included two Americans, but not Archbishop Dolan. Several news reports described the archbishop as having been passed over.

But some experts say there was never a serious likelihood that this was Archbishop Dolan’s turn to “get the red hat,” as cognoscenti call the broad-brimmed hat that cardinals wear as a symbol of their rank at the top of the hierarchy, just below the pope. The reason: electoral politics, Vatican-style.

The Archdiocese of New York already has one cardinal, the retired Archbishop Edward M. Egan, 78, who, according to Vatican rules, will continue to have a vote in any future election of a pope until he turns 80, in April 2012.