POLITICO Playbook: Numbers that explain the stakes of tonight’s debate Presented by Facebook

President Donald Trump and Joe Biden will take the stage in Cleveland on Tuesday night for the first presidential debate -- a 90-minute, commercial-free affair moderated by Fox News’ Chris Wallace. | Patrick Semansky/AP Photo

DRIVING THE DAY

TONIGHT AT 9 P.M., JOE BIDEN and President DONALD TRUMP will take the stage in Cleveland for the first presidential debate -- a 90-minute, commercial-free affair moderated by Fox News’ CHRIS WALLACE, 35 DAYS before Election Day.

WE HAVE A FEW FRESH DATA POINTS TO KEEP IN MIND as you start to think about tonight -- these are from our new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll:

-- 86% of voters say their minds are made up about who they will vote for. Just 14% say they are persuadable.

-- DAVID SIDERS and STEVEN SHEPARD in their piece this morning: “Nine out of 10 of those who plan to vote for Donald Trump think he’ll be the better debater. Roughly the same number of Joe Biden voters think he’ll get the best of the president.”

-- 44% say they expect BIDEN to perform better tonight, and 41% say they expect TRUMP to perform better. 15% don’t know.

-- 41% of those polled say it is “very accurate” to say “Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic resulted in thousands of preventable deaths in the United States.” Another 13% say it’s somewhat accurate.

-- 40% say it’s very or somewhat accurate to say BIDEN wants to raise taxes on middle-class Americans.

-- WALLACE, the moderator, has a 33% favorable rating and 15% unfavorable rating. 52% either have never heard of him or have no opinion. WALLACE is the best-known debate moderator -- 58% have never heard of C-SPAN’s STEVE SCULLY and 59% have not heard of NBC’s KRISTEN WELKER.

DEBATE LOOKAROUND … RYAN LIZZA: “Donald Trump is a better debater than you remember" … NYT’S PETER BAKER and MIKE SHEAR: “Trump Deflects Questions About Taxes, but First Debate Has a New Issue” … AP’S JULIE PACE: “Analysis: In debate, a last chance for Trump to define Biden”

NEW EXCERPT from PETER BAKER and SUSAN GLASSER’S book “The Man Who Ran Washington: The Life and Times of James A. Baker III”: READ ABOUT how RONALD REAGAN rebounded from a bad debate with WALTER MONDALE -- and who helped him build up his confidence. OUT TODAY! $31.50 on Amazon

NEW WAPO/ABC POLL: BIDEN is up 9 POINTS in Pennsylvania: “Biden’s support stands at 54 percent to Trump’s 45 percent among the Keystone State’s likely voters and 54 percent to 44 percent among its registered voters.”

-- FT’S DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO: “The battle for Ohio: Trump tries to retain edge with working class”

DRIVING TODAY ON CAPITOL HILL: Judge AMY CONEY BARRETT begins her meetings with senators this morning. Here’s who she’ll be with, per MARIANNE LEVINE: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.), Judiciary Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.).

THE JEFF ZUCKER EFFECT … NYT’S MIKE MCINTIRE, RUSS BUETTNER and SUSANNE CRAIG: “How Reality-TV Fame Handed Trump a $427 Million Lifeline”: “Months after [the] inaugural [‘Apprentice’] episode in January 2004, Mr. Trump filed his individual tax return reporting $89.9 million in net losses from his core businesses for the prior year. The red ink spilled from everywhere, even as American television audiences saw him as a savvy business mogul with the Midas touch. …

“By analyzing the tax records, The New York Times was able to place a value on Mr. Trump’s celebrity. While the returns show that he earned some $197 million directly from ‘The Apprentice’ over 16 years — roughly in line with what he has claimed — they also reveal that an additional $230 million flowed from the fame associated with it.”

Good Tuesday morning.

SPOTTED: White House chief of staff Mark Meadows having dinner with his family at Landini Brothers in Old Town Alexandria on Monday night. Pic … Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette flying Delta from DCA to Detroit on Monday. He ate some peanut M&Ms and had security. Pic

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THE OLD COLLEGE TRY: “Pelosi and Mnuchin make one final attempt at Covid talks before elections,” by Sarah Ferris, Heather Caygle and John Bresnahan: “Pelosi and Mnuchin spoke Monday evening, according to Drew Hammill, Pelosi’s spokesman, and they plan to speak again Tuesday morning. If no agreement seems likely -- and it hasn’t been despite months of on-and-off negotiations -- Pelosi and House Democratic leaders will hold a vote on their own $2.2 trillion bill as soon as Wednesday and then go home, guaranteeing that Congress won’t send more help until after Election Day, said the sources.”

-- WELL, YOU KNOW WHERE WE STAND on the prospects of this. Could a deal come together? Sure. It would require a massive capitulation on one side. We checked with a few very senior White House aides late Monday evening, and their view was if they are forced to negotiate off of PELOSI’S new, $2.2 trillion bill, this latest round of talks doesn’t stand much of a chance.

-- REMEMBER: The two sides remain $1 TRILLION apart. Republicans’ topline has been $1.3 trillion to $1.5 trillion, and Dems have been hovering in the $2.2 trillion to $2.4 trillion range.

THE NEXT CRISIS? -- “Thousands of aviation layoffs loom amid a dysfunctional Congress,” by Sam Mintz: “Tens of thousands of airline workers will lose their jobs in a matter of days if Congress is unable to break through its gridlock, even though a majority of lawmakers support heading off the looming layoffs for an industry that’s been decimated by the coronavirus.

“Airline unions have been pleading with Congress for months to extend the Payroll Support Program, a $32 billion program of airline payroll support grants given as part of the CARES Act, a condition of which required that airlines not involuntarily lay off workers until after Sept. 30. Without extending the program, which will require a $28 billion cash infusion, airlines say they will have to start laying off pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and more.

“At least some percentage of those workers, in virtually every community across the country, will head to the unemployment office — right before the November election. But so far, no aid appears to be coming from Capitol Hill, absent a last-ditch effort.” POLITICO

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CORONAVIRUS LATEST … AP: “Worldwide grief: Death toll from coronavirus tops 1 million,” by Adam Geller and Rishabh Jain with a New Delhi dateline

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- Let America Vote and Brady PAC are launching a $1.1 MILLION ad campaign as part of the #SavetheVote campaign to educate people about voting. The mail and digital ads will focus on Democratic-leaning, low-propensity voters in Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Texas through Election Day, including Black, Asian and Latino voters. The ads: “No Secret” … “Easy, Safe, and Secure” … “Change” (N.C.)

STATE OF PLAY -- “They wanted disruption in 2016. Now they’re Trump defectors,” by AP’s Tamara Rush: “Trump’s case for reelection rests almost solely on the intensity of support from those who backed him four years ago. Unlike other modern presidents, he has done little to try to expand his base, and there’s no evidence that he has. So he cannot afford to lose many voters like [Shawna] Jensen.

“It’s unclear how many voters like Jensen are out there — white, middle-class people who are pro-gun and anti-abortion rights, solid Republicans in most conventional ways — and how they will affect the election’s outcome. Voters like Jensen could be only a slice of the electorate, but they still represent a flashing caution sign for the president.

“Trump’s support among Republicans has been stable throughout his time in office. For all those voters repelled by Trump, there are diehard legions who remain solidly with him because they believe he honored his campaign promises, shows strengths and has presided over an economy that was flourishing before the pandemic. In a tight race — especially in swing states — those who are abandoning Trump could make a difference.”

-- WAPO: “Courts view GOP fraud claims skeptically as Democrats score key legal victories over mail voting,” by Elise Viebeck: “A review by The Washington Post of nearly 90 state and federal voting lawsuits found that judges have been broadly skeptical as Republicans use claims of voter fraud to argue against such changes, declining to endorse the GOP’s arguments or dismissing them as they examined limits on mail voting. In no case did a judge back President Trump’s view — refuted by experts — that fraud is a problem significant enough to sway a presidential election.”

MELANIE ZANONA and ALLY MUTNICK: “House Republicans work to close gender gap despite Trump headwinds”: “House Republicans will boost their depressingly low number of congresswomen next year — it's just a matter of how much. Reeling from a brutal midterm election that decimated their ranks, the remaining female GOP members corralled party leaders, donors, and outside groups into mounting an all-out campaign to close the gender gap by recruiting more women and shepherding them through primaries.

“On a good election night for the party, they could see as many as two dozen women win their races, bringing them back to their pre-2018 levels. In the worst-case scenario, House Republicans would still grow their female ranks by one or two.

“More than that, though, the GOP — which has long shunned identity politics, at least when it comes to gender — has experienced a real attitude and cultural shift around electing more women to Congress, according to interviews with over a dozen lawmakers, candidates, operatives and aides. Women are stepping up to run, citing their gender as an asset and answering the siren sounded by party leaders — even as President Donald Trump remains divisive among women of both parties.” POLITICO

TRUMP’S TUESDAY -- The president and first lady Melania Trump will leave the White House at 2:10 p.m. en route to Cleveland. They will arrive at 3:40 p.m. and travel to the Sheila and Eric Sampson Pavilion. Trump will depart at 4:50 p.m. to travel to the InterContinental Suites Hotel Cleveland. The two will depart at 8:35 p.m. and return to the Sheila and Eric Sampson Pavilion. Trump will participate at the first presidential debate at 9 p.m. Afterward, he and Melania will travel back to Washington, arriving at the White House at 12:30 a.m.

ON THE TRAIL -- BIDEN will travel to Cleveland for the first presidential debate. JILL BIDEN will travel to Michigan and tour a farm. She will also attend a voter mobilization event with Chasten Buttigieg in Traverse City. In the evening, she will travel to Cleveland and attend the presidential debate. … Sen. KAMALA HARRIS (D-Calif.) will attend a virtual fundraiser.

PLAYBOOK READS

PHOTO DU JOUR: Abortion-rights demonstrators clash with the police during a march in Mexico City, on Monday, Sept. 28. | Marco Ugarte/AP Photo

JOHN HARRIS column: “The New York Times Confirms Trump Is a Genius”

AT MAIN JUSTICE -- “Barr’s Justice Department serves up talking points for Trump,” by Kyle Cheney: “The prosecution of Michael Flynn. A Senate investigation into the provenance of the Steele Dossier. The nascent federal probe of discarded absentee ballots in Pennsylvania. In recent days, the Justice Department has declassified or disclosed sensitive materials related to each of these proceedings that, on the surface, have little to do with each other.

“Yet within hours, President Donald Trump had weaponized each to boost his reelection campaign. It’s the latest evidence that veteran prosecutors and attorneys — and, over the weekend, even a current DOJ official — describe as an intensifying effort to use the department to support Trump’s political fortunes.” POLITICO

WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO RAGE OUT WEST ... LAT: “3 found dead in latest California wildfires as wine country remains under siege,” by Luke Money, Anita Chabria, Hayley Smith, Rong-Gong Lin II and Matthew Ormseth: “The toll from California’s latest round of wildfires worsened Monday with three deaths reported in Shasta County and numerous structures lost in wine country, where tens of thousands have been forced to flee their homes.

“The number of structures damaged or destroyed was unclear late Monday, ‘but there was significant loss’ in some areas, according to Santa Rosa Fire Chief Tony Gossner. Almost 34,000 people have been ordered to evacuate, officials said, while more than 14,000 others have been warned that they, too, may have to leave. In Shasta County, three people have died in another fast-moving wildfire that ignited Sunday afternoon near the rural community of Igo, about nine miles southwest of Redding, Sheriff Eric Magrini said.”

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DEEP DIVE -- “Behind the White House Effort to Pressure the C.D.C. on School Openings,” by NYT’s Mark Mazzetti, Noah Weiland and Sharon LaFraniere: “Top White House officials pressured the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention this summer to play down the risk of sending children back to school, a strikingly political intervention in one of the most sensitive public health debates of the pandemic, according to documents and interviews with current and former government officials.

“As part of their behind-the-scenes effort, White House officials also tried to circumvent the C.D.C. in a search for alternate data showing that the pandemic was weakening and posed little danger to children. The documents and interviews show how the White House spent weeks trying to press public health professionals to fall in line with President Trump’s election-year agenda of pushing to reopen schools and the economy as quickly as possible. The president and his team have remained defiant in their demand for schools to get back to normal, even as coronavirus cases have once again ticked up, in some cases linked to school and college reopenings.

“The effort included Dr. Deborah L. Birx, the White House’s coronavirus response coordinator, and officials working for Vice President Mike Pence, who led the task force. It left officials at the C.D.C., long considered the world’s premier public health agency, alarmed at the degree of pressure from the White House.” NYT

BUSINESS BURST -- “Why Are There Still So Few Black CEOs?” by WSJ’s Te-Ping Chen: “If corporate life is a pyramid, for Black Americans, it is one with the steepest of peaks. Out of the chief executives running America’s top 500 companies, just 1%, or four, are Black. The numbers aren’t much better on the rungs of the ladder leading to that role. Among all U.S. companies with 100 or more employees, Black people hold just 3% of executive or senior-level roles, according to Equal Employment Opportunity Commission data. Decades after the civil-rights movement led to laws banning workplace discrimination, progress for Black executives has hit a ceiling.”

PLAYBOOKERS

Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at [email protected].

HOT JOB -- COLUMBIA: “Pulitzer Prize Administrator”

TRANSITIONS -- Sarah Leah Whitson is the new executive director of DAWN (Democracy for the Arab World Now), the organization founded by Jamal Khashoggi, launching Tuesday. She previously was executive director of the Middle East and North Africa division of Human Rights Watch. More from the NYT … Tom Santos is joining Zurich North America as an assistant VP for federal affairs and will register as a lobbyist. He previously was VP of research at the American Property Casualty Insurance Association.

ENGAGED -- Jonathan Olsen, accounting manager for the RNC, proposed to Caroline Boothe, director of member services for the House GOP Conference, on their morning walk with their dog Stella on Saturday on a bench in Lincoln Park. They were set up by their friends Jennifer and Brendan Belair three years ago. Pic … Another pic

WEEKEND WEDDINGS -- Katie Pointer, member services director for House Homeland Security ranking member Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), and Drew Baney of Department of Education congressional affairs got married Sunday in Dallas. They met while working together for Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Chair Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). Pic

-- David Molina, political consultant at Pacific6 and a Molina Healthcare alum, and Mallory Howe, an account executive at FiscalNote, got married Saturday at the California Club in Los Angeles. They met through their mothers. Pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Sarah Lovenheim, comms adviser to California A.G. Xavier Becerra, and Zach Goldfarb, deputy business editor at WaPo, welcomed Mollie Chaya Goldfarb on Sunday morning. She came in at 8 lbs, 1 oz, and 21 inches long, and joins big brother Andrew. Pic

-- ABC: “Meghan McCain of ‘The View’ gives birth to baby girl”: “‘The View’ co-host Meghan McCain and her husband, Ben Domenech, welcomed their first child on Monday, Sept. 28. McCain, who’s celebrating her 36th birthday on Oct. 23, gave birth to baby girl Liberty Sage McCain Domenech Monday evening.”

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Salena Zito, Washington Examiner national political reporter, CNN contributor and New York Post columnist. A fun fact people might not know about her: “I once successfully produced Quentin Tarantino’s ‘Reservoir Dogs’ as a theater production to very good reviews.” Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Robbie Kaplan … Larry Burton, chief of staff for Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) (h/t daughter Amanda) … David Nather is 56 … Doug Frantz, OECD deputy secretary-general, is 71 … Anton Vuljaj is 33 … Liz Sidoti, managing director at Abernathy MacGregor … CBS’ Tory Coughlan … Stephen Parker … POLITICO’s Ryan Hutchins … Business Insider’s Oma Seddiq … Carlos Watson, co-founder and CEO of Ozy … Riley Swinehart … Lee Lilley, director of legislative affairs for North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper … Finn Partners’ Scott Widmeyer and Jessica Ross … Slate’s Will Saletan is 56 … Douglas E. Baker … Emma Barnett of “Meet the Press” (h/t Ali Schmitz) … Ryann DuRant, USDA press secretary, is 31 … Lisa Ross, COO at Edelman and president of the D.C. office ... Shawn Pasternak, research director at S-3 Public Affairs … former Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) is 78 … Cassie Moreno, press secretary for Sen. Mark Warner’s (D-Va.) reelect, is 25 … Bryant Gumbel is 72 … Brian Shankman is 48 … Melissa DeRosa … Matthew Cornelius …

… Cameron Normand, head of federal affairs for Sony Pictures Entertainment … Paul Bock (h/t Jon Haber) … Kelly Ward Burton, executive director at NDRC … Priscilla Burton … Jack Corrigan … Dave Hamrick … Deb Sutinen (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) … Michael Oliva, president of Sykes Global Communications (h/t Stephen Romano) … Aviva Rosenthal, director at the Smithsonian’s Office of International Relations and Global Programs (h/t husband Dan) … Bank of America’s A-T Connell ... Sandra Sobieraj Westfall … Lucy Spiegel … former Rep. Max Sandlin (D-Texas) is 68 … Bobby Schmuck … Mary Pharris … Michael Mauro … Kevin Kellems … Jessica Cochran … POLITICO Europe’s Josh Posaner … Laura Gaffey, deputy COO at Precision Strategies ... Ashley Bryant … Mike McGuire … Douglas Baker ... Mike Ting ... Katie Wilmeth ... Elizabeth Tannen ... Karin Fischer … Joanna Acocella … Trey Nix … Leslie Phillips ... Barry Weprin is 68 ... Beatrice Motamedi ... Josh Sawislak ... Katie Roberts Jackson ... Scott Hoeflich … Silvio Berlusconi is 84