UN-led talks on the reunification of Cyprus entered the second of four scheduled days on Tuesday, with only a major intervention by the Turkish president or the Greek prime minister thought to be capable of changing the slow rate of progress.



The first days of the Geneva talks, which are seen as the best chance for a peace settlement on the divided island in more than a decade, are focusing on detailed issues including property transfers between Greek and Turkish Cypriots, before moving to future security guarantees on Thursday.

But, in a potential blow, neither Recep Tayyip Erdoğan nor Alexis Tsipras has committed to attending the second set of talks on Thursday for the three current security guarantors, Turkey, Greece and the UK.

The British foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, confirmed on Tuesday he would be attending the talks, designed to end a division between the Turkish Cypriot north and a Greek Cypriot south that has lasted since 1974.

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But after negotiations on the first day became bogged down on property transfers and governance, including a rotating presidency and power-sharing chapters, progress has been slower than the UN had hoped.

A leak of documents from the talks showed 10 major differences on the governance chapter and 14 on the property issue. The leak prompted the Greek Cypriot side to warn they would not be distributing any more documents to the political parties attending the talks in Geneva.

Issues such as rights to compensation for the loss of property, the right of return, the compensation for improvements, work permits for Turkish Cypriots, access to public sector jobs and the speed with which an agreement comes into force still divided the negotiators, the leak showed.

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On Wednesday the two sides are expected to present their respective maps of the future internal boundaries of a federated Cyprus inside the EU.

There are concerns that the UN’s timetable is slipping, and fears are growing that neither side will make major concessions until there are indications about whether there will be a deal on the crucial issue of security guarantees.



Greece wants Turkish troops off the island, with a clear timetable for them leaving, and a commitment to non-interference.

Observers fear, however, that Erdoğan may not be in a position to make a concession on the troops in the north while he still needs the support of Turkish nationalists in his parliament to push through his controversial plans for an executive presidency.

A referendum on his plans is not due to be held until April, on the assumption that the complex package wins the approval of three-fifths of parliamentary deputies, or 330 votes. The first discussion of the package was only narrowly passed.

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Analysts at the Eurasia Group said: “The gap between Turkey and all the other parties over security is likely to be the main reason this week’s talks will be inconclusive.”

They added: “Turkey is likely to continue to stall on Cyprus until April. Erdoğan needs the support of nationalists at home to pass a package of constitutional reforms to introduce an executive presidential system. For this to succeed, in the next few weeks Erdoğan will need the parliamentary support of the Nationalist Movement party – who take a hard line stance over Cyprus – to put the reforms to a referendum.

“Even after clearing the parliamentary vote, however, Erdoğan will still need to convince nationalist voters to support the reforms in a referendum. For Erdoğan, any kind of concession on its current Cyprus policy would be a liability, and he is unlikely to agree to any revised security framework until after the referendum.”