Here’s how the NBA Playoffs are going to go…

Sure, with its seven-game format, the NBA Playoffs aren’t quite as consistently dramatic as March Madness, but there are a number of compelling storylines as we head into this year’s postseason. Will KG return in time to help the Celtics try to repeat? Will LeBron and the Cavs ride home court advantage to the Finals? Can Chris Paul and the Hornets put a less-than-stellar regular season behind them and make a run? Can Kobe finally win a title without Shaq?

The Playoffs start on Saturday, and looking at the matchups, I think I have a pretty good idea how things will play out. Granted, I’m likely to make a few mistakes along the way, but that’s part of the fun, right?

EASTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND

#1 Cavaliers vs. #8 Pistons

Let’s see – the Pistons limped into the playoffs, going 8-9 in March and 3-5 in April. Earlier in the season, they traded away arguably their best player (Chauncey Billups) and the guy they got in return (Allen Iverson) is (rumored to be) spending his time getting banned from the local casinos. If Detroit had held onto Billups, maybe they’d be able to make this a series, but without him, they’re floundering. I hope Joe Dumars has fun with that cap space!

#4 Hawks vs. #5 Heat

Here’s a first round battle between two teams that don’t have a legitimate chance of making the Finals. If the NBA were to adopt a single-elimination format (or even three-game series across the board), maybe….maybe…one of these teams could get hot and make a run. As it stands, the winner will have the right to face a determined Cavs team in the second round. Not that it matters, but I’m going with the Hawks here. They have home court advantage, have won three of four against the Heat this season and are simply a better team. Hats off to Dwyane Wade for willing the Heat this far, but I don’t think we’re going to see a LeBron/D-Wade matchup in the second round. (Not unless Jermaine O’Neal discovers the Fountain of Youth by this weekend.)

#2 Celtics vs. #7 Bulls

Don’t look now, but the Bulls are (kind of) hot. They’ve won 12 of their last 16 games, including home wins against Boston and New Orleans. Normally, I’d take the C’s and not think twice, but with Kevin Garnett out for the foreseeable future, this is suddenly an interesting series. Boston is 18-7 without Garnett (8-5 against playoff teams), so the Celtics are still a solid team without their star forward. I think home court should be enough to allow Boston to move on, but don’t be surprised if Chicago springs the upset.

#3 Magic vs. #6 Sixers

The Sixers were 12-15 with Elton Brand and 29-26 without him. Ouch. Philly had lost six straight games before beating a Cavs team that was resting its starters. The Magic swept the season series. Despite the Orlando’s mediocre play in April, the Magic should advance.

WESTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND

#1 Lakers vs. #8 Jazz

Utah gave L.A. some problems last year, taking the Lakers to six games. Moreover, every game in the series was competitive. The Jazz have the tools to cause headaches for the Lakers, but Utah is 2-7 in its last nine, so I don’t see an upset here.

#4 Trail Blazers vs. #5 Rockets

Houston is 16-7 in March and April, but just 7-6 against playoff teams. Portland is 18-6 (and 6-6) over the same span. What does this tell us? Not much, but I already counted up the wins so I didn’t want the work to go to waste. Something tells me that the Blazers are going to have a tough time matching Ron Artest’s mental toughness, but I’m rooting for a Portland win so they can move on and face the Lakers (whom they’ve beaten twice in the last 39 days). The Blazers have home court, so let’s hope that’s enough.

#2 Nuggets vs. #7 Hornets

At the start of the season, I thought these seeds would be reversed. I can’t believe how well Denver has played since Chauncey Billups’ arrival (and without Marcus Camby). New Orleans limped into the playoffs (going 3-6 in April) and they just don’t look like the same team that took San Antonio to seven games in last year’s Western Conference Semifinals. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have won 14 of their last 17 and have home court advantage. It’s going to be a great battle at point guard between Billups and Chris Paul, but Denver is just playing better ball right now. I’m going with the Nuggets, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Hornets pulled the upset.

#3 Spurs vs. #6 Mavericks

With Manu Ginobili sidelined, the Mavs have a real shot to upset the Spurs, but I don’t think Jason Kidd can handle Tony Parker’s quickness. TP is averaging 31.3 points (on 52% shooting) and 7.3 assists his four regular season games against Dallas. Parker should go nuts, so if Tim Duncan’s knees hold up, the Spurs will advance, and there will be several shots of Mark Cuban looking unhappy in the stands. (Anyone want to pool some money together and pay for Devin Harris to sit in the same section? That would be awesome.)

EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

#1 Cavaliers vs. #4 Hawks

Atlanta does have the personnel to give the Cavs some problems, but LeBron seems destined for a Finals appearance this season and the Hawks have really struggled to slow him down in the two team’s four meetings this season. (Cleveland is 3-1 in those games.) Mo Williams averaged 23.3 points and shot almost 54% against the Hawks this season, and with the way LeBron is playing defense right now, I don’t see Joe Johnson carrying the Hawks to more than a couple of wins. Cavs advance.

#2 Celtics vs. #3 Magic

Anyone who followed my March Madness picks knows that I’m not optimistic when it comes to pre-tournament injuries. (Damn you, Ty Lawson!) Such is the case with KG’s knees – according to Doc Rivers, he may not be able to play again this postseason, and if he’s not at or near 100%, the Magic have the advantage in this series. It’s true that Orlando is without Jameer Nelson, but Rafer Alston has been an adequate replacement. I’d feel a lot better picking this upset if the Magic had played better down the stretch, but let’s assume that they lost focus late in the season with virtually nothing on the line. Orlando pulls the upset.

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

#1 Lakers vs. #4 Trail Blazers

The Lakers won the first two meetings (in L.A.) by an average of 17 points, but the Blazers won the last two in Portland by 17 (in March) and by eight (in April). The Lakers have now lost eight straight at the Rose Garden, but with home court advantage, they don’t have to win in Portland. I expect the young Blazers to put up a fight, but ultimately lose this series in six or seven. Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol provide a great one-two punch, but the Lakers will need some production out of Derek Fisher or Jordan Farmar somewhere along the line to reach the Finals. Given the state of the teams in the other side of the West bracket, the Blazers (or even the Rockets, if they advance) could give the Lakers their toughest conference test. This will be good experience for the young Blazers who look poised to dominate the West in the not-too-distant future.

#2 Nuggets vs. #3 Spurs

Ugh. I’m not a believer in the Nuggets, and I’m not optimistic about the Spurs given Manu Ginobili’s absence and Tim Duncan’s knees. The Nuggets have home-court advantage in this series thanks to a 2-1 regular season record against the Spurs. Tony Parker didn’t play in either of the Spurs’ losses, and he’s going to have to come up huge for the Spurs to advance. Without Ginobili, the Spurs are in a bad way, but I’d feel worse about picking Denver to advance to the Western Conference Finals, so San Antonio it is.

CONFERENCE FINALS

#1 Cavaliers vs. #3 Magic

With Jameer Nelson in the lineup, the Magic would have had a shot, but they don’t have anyone to contain LeBron on the wing. James averaged 30.7 points in three games against Orlando, but didn’t shoot all that well (43%). Mo Williams has really struggled against the Magic, shooting 38% from the field and scoring just 14.3 ppg. The Magic were 2-1 against the Cavs this season, but both wins were at home. Orlando will want to make this game a grind, but LeBron should be able to get to the line enough to give the Cavs the advantage in the clutch. Given Orlando’s struggles down the stretch, it will be an accomplishment to get this far, so let’s hope that Stan Van Gundy doesn’t give himself another ulcer on the sideline.

#1 Lakers vs. #3 Spurs

The Spurs couldn’t beat the Lakers last year with Ginobili in the lineup and Andrew Bynum sidelined, so I don’t see them beating L.A. without Ginobili and with Bynum back and looking pretty good. Nothing to see here. Lakers advance.

THE FINALS

#1 Cavaliers vs. #1 Lakers

With KG hobbled and the C’s looking vulnerable, this is the matchup that everyone wants to see. Kobe wants a Shaq-less title so badly, he can taste it. (No jokes about Shaq’s freestyle rap, please.) It has been his singular focus for the last few seasons, and he can sense that the window is closing. His Lakers fell to the Celtics in last year’s Finals in part because Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen had that same focus, while the rest of the Lakers simply did not. The Cavs should have an advantage at point guard with Mo Williams who is quicker than Fisher and more experienced (and more confident) than Farmar. The Lakers can throw Kobe and Trevor Ariza at LeBron on the defensive end, and have an advantage inside with Gasol and Bynum (versus Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anderson Varejao). The Lakers swept the season series, and LeBron shot a combined 14 for 45 (31%) in the two games, so it looks like the Lakers might have his number from a defensive standpoint. (Keep in mind that LeBron killed the Lakers in the two games last season, so who knows.) The Cavs have better chemistry, but chemistry only gets you so far. Unless LeBron can shake off his regular season struggles against the Lakers and post his usual 29-7-7 line, L.A. should be able to steal a game in Cleveland. The only thing standing in the way is Kobe’s relationship with his teammates. How will he handle adversity? Will the Laker role players come up small when faced with the prospect of failing Kobe on his quest for another title? The Lakers have the personnel (and coaching) advantage, so I think they’ll ultimately triumph, but assuming we do get this matchup, it’s going to be interesting to watch the emotional side of this series.