Asheville snowstorm 15th biggest on record; dangerous driving conditions persist

ASHEVILLE — The worst is behind us.

The surprise winter storm that left Western North Carolina under several inches of heavy, wet snow is moving on, according to the National Weather Service, but not before making its way into the books as one of the strongest snowstorms to hit the region.

“It’s pretty significant snowfall,” said Scott Krentz, an NWS meteorologist who tracked the storm from the Weather Service's office in Greenville, South Carolina.

By noon Saturday, the NWS had recorded what will likely be the final snowfall totals from Asheville and the communities that surround it. What little snow is left falling should be finished by mid afternoon. The NWS forecasts flurries tonight, but "little or no accumulation."

The Asheville Regional Airport, the city's official data point for the NWS, reported 8 inches of snow, making this storm the 15th greatest since 1946, when the Weather Service started keeping records of snowfall in Asheville. The No. 1 spot goes to a December storm in 1971 that dumped 16.3 inches of snow on the airport.

Though the airport is Asheville's official monitor of snowfall, the National Weather Service received snowfall reports from other sites in Asheville that recorded accumulations of up to 11 inches.

Fletcher reported more than any other community in Asheville's immediate vicinity with a total of 15.2 inches. Cashiers took the top spot in the region with 18 inches, beating even the snowfall totals at Mount Mitchell and Beech Mountain, both of which reported about 9 inches.

Friday's storm might not have been the strongest to hit Western North Carolina, but it was still big enough to cause schools, government offices and businesses to shut down. The Asheville-Mountain Area Red Cross had to open an additional warming center so that people experiencing homelessness could get out of the cold.

Hanging around

By Sunday morning, the snow will have stopped falling and the sun will be creeping out from behind the clouds, according to the NWS forecast, but don't expect to be rid of the snow on the ground anytime soon.

"You're going to have some melting over the weekend, but it's not going to happen tonight," Krentz told the Citizen Times on Saturday, explaining that Monday would likely be the first day of significant melting in and around Asheville. "The snow is going to be on the ground next week — late next week."

Fast melting conditions could also present a problem for WNC motorists, one every bit as dangerous as Friday's snow: black ice.

Monday's high temperature will likely be pushing 50 degrees Fahrenheit, with sunny skies to boot, the NWS says. Those are about the most productive thawing conditions the region is going to see early next week as high temperatures drop back into the 30s until Thursday, when we're expected to hit 46 degrees Fahrenheit.

More: Surprise snow? Here's why Asheville was hit with much more than a dusting

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The problem with the rapid melting we might see during the day Monday is what will likely follow that night. The NWS predicts the temperature will drop into the high 20s, presenting a significant risk of refreezing. And when melt water refreezes, black ice conditions are at their worst.

"Monday you’re going to be under the gun, probably shortly after sunset, through the morning,” Krentz said.

Historic snowfall

The snowstorm that hit Western North Carolina Friday is among the biggest to hit the region in the last 70 years. But it's hardly the biggest in recent years.

On Jan. 22, 2016, a winter storm hit the Asheville Regional Airport with 13.4 inches of snow, making it the fourth biggest on record. In fact, recent years have been some of the snowiest in Asheville.

Looking back through NWS data, each decade since the '60s has had a handful of big snowstorms, but none compare to current decade. Six of the city's 21 worst snowstorms on record have occurred in the past seven years, according to Krentz. The decade with the second highest number of significant winter storms was the '80s, which saw only five significant snow events.

Krentz is reluctant to assign any meaning to the recent spurt of heavy snowstorms.

"It might be worth studying," he said. "But there's just not enough data."

The rest of the winter

Friday's snowstorm was a bit of an anomaly, at least when taken in the context of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's most recent climate prediction report. The climate prediction center at NOAA, the parent organization of the National Weather Service, forecast a winter characterized by higher-than-normal temperatures and lower-than-normal moisture, both of which aren't conducive for snow.

NOAA's prediction is based largely on the fact that we're in a neutral La Niña cycle, which typically means drier warmer winters for the Southeast. Long-range forecasts are tough and generally leave room for aberrations, such as Friday's storm, according to Krentz. Whether we can expect more storms like Friday's before the winter is over, is still anybody's guess.

"Just because we had one snowstorm doesn’t mean the whole winter is going to be like that; it remains to be seen," Krentz said. "But I'm not sure how much confidence you can put in a three-month forecast.”