Dan Nowicki

The Arizona Republic

PHOENIX — Hillary Clinton is hanging on to a small but widening lead over Donald Trump in what remains an up-for-grabs race for Arizona's 11 electoral votes, according to a new Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll released Wednesday.

Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee and a former U.S. secretary of State, was supported by 39% of the likely Arizona voters surveyed, while Trump, the Republican nominee and real-estate developer, is backed by 33.9%.

An additional 20.7% hadn't decided yet who to vote for in the Nov. 8 general election.

The statewide telephone poll of 713 likely voters was conducted Oct. 10 to Oct. 15, after a turbulent week in the presidential race. The candidates met in a notoriously rancorous second debate Oct. 9, days after many Republicans across the nation — and, in Arizona, U.S. Sen. John McCain — withdrew their support for Trump over his vulgar remarks about women, captured in a 2005 recording.

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And it arrives as the Clinton campaign has this week dispatched a trio of high-profile surrogates to Arizona: U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont was in Flagstaff and Tucson on Tuesday; daughter Chelsea Clinton to Tempe on Wednesday and first lady Michelle Obama in Phoenix on Thursday. There is speculation Hillary Clinton herself could make an appearance.

The Clinton campaign announced Monday that it is putting more than $2 million into its advertising efforts in Arizona.

Gary Johnson, the Libertarian nominee, is supported by 5.9% in the poll, while Jill Stein, the Green Party nominee, has less than 1% support.

The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

Clinton was leading Trump by less than 2 percentage points, 35.1% to 33.5%, among likely voters in an Aug. 17 to Aug. 31 Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll. That outcome also fell within the poll’s margin of error.

The still-significant number of undecided voters in the most-recent poll could give hope to either campaign that the race could still break late in their direction.

When including "leaners" in the sample, the number of undecideds drops to 8.1%. Clinton's support rises to 43.3% while Trump's support increases to 37.8%. Johnson gets 6.5% while Stein gets 4.3%. The margin of error for the sample including the leaners is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

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"At some point, those undecideds don't show up," said Jennifer Duffy, a national political analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington, D.C. "Or, if they show up — because I assume a decent number of those are, frankly, Republicans — and if they do show up, they skip the top."

Of the 20.7% of likely voters who said they are still undecided about the presidential race, 26.6% are independents, 19% are Republicans and 14% are Democrats.

About two-thirds of respondents said their opinions were not swayed by the combative Trump vs. Clinton debate, where Clinton said Trump's campaign was "exploding" and Trump arrived in the debate hall with three women who have accused her husband, former president Bill Clinton, of sexual improprieties.

But 16.5% said the debate made them more likely to support Clinton and 9.2% made them more likely to support Trump.

Trump recently rallied rural supporters in Yavapai County, one of Arizona's most conservative areas. Trump has made a total of six visits to Arizona as a presidential candidate.

Tom Mellinger of Prescott, Ariz., is a Trump supporter who expects him to carry the state and prays he will win the White House.

“The polling is a lie. It’s all false,” said Mellinger. “We’re all Republican up here and we’re all voting for Trump. The rest of the country, I don’t know what the heck is going on. ... There’s so much false stuff coming out of the media.”

Maggie Cathey of Gilbert, Ariz., said she has volunteered to help Democrats contact potential voters in an effort to deliver Arizona to Clinton.

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“I think it looks good for her right now. I got some enthusiastic people on the phone and there’s a lot of on-the-ground activity,” said Cathey, a former member of the Gilbert Town Council.

Maricopa resident Mike Galbreath is an independent voter who plans to reluctantly support Clinton.

“Trump is a nut,” he said. “Hillary is not my idea of who I want for president, but she’s the lesser of two evils.”

The Clinton and Trump campaigns did not respond to The Republic's requests for comments about the new poll.

Arizona has long been considered a red state in presidential elections. Then-President Bill Clinton was the most recent Democrat to carry the state, during his 1996 re-election bid. Before Clinton, no Democrat had won Arizona since President Harry Truman did in 1948.

Contributing: Ronald J. Hansen, The Arizona Republic. Follow Dan Nowicki on Twitter: @dannowicki

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