House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady said Tuesday that generic polling doesn’t reflect how most people view the law. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo POLITICO/Morning Consult Poll Poll: Most voters say they haven't seen pay boost from tax law

More than half of registered voters say they haven’t noticed an increase in their paychecks as a result of the new tax law, and support for the law overall remains tepid, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.

The April 19-23 survey suggests that Republicans’ message about the benefits of the tax cuts, which they are counting on to buoy their election fortunes in November, hasn’t broken through. At the same time, those who said they have seen a pay increase were more likely to support Republicans in Congress who voted for the tax overhaul than Democrats who opposed it.


The poll results were heavily colored by partisanship, with Republicans overwhelmingly supporting the law and Democrats opposing it. A plurality of independent voters supported it.

Even whether someone noticed a pay bump appeared influenced by politics, with twice as many Republicans saying they had seen one as Democrats.

Overall, 55 percent of those surveyed said they had not noticed an increase in their paychecks in “the past several weeks.” Twenty-two percent said they had, and the rest didn’t know or had no opinion.

The number saying they have seen no increase is up slightly from a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll in February, when 51 percent reported that, compared to 25 percent who said they had noticed a bump.

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General support for the tax law remained statistically where it was in February, with 44 percent now in favor, 39 percent opposed and 17 percent undecided or having no opinion. A whopping 80 percent of Republicans support the law, while only 17 percent of Democrats do.

Support among independents ticked up, to 41 percent from 38 percent in February.

Republicans could reap rewards in November from those who do see a rise in their paychecks. Sixty-five percent of those reporting an increase said it made them more likely to support Republicans in Congress, including 63 percent of independents and 35 percent of Democrats.

Other recent polls, by Gallup and The Wall Street Journal/NBC, showed more voters oppose the law than support it. But Republicans say that will turn around as more Americans see benefits.

House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Texas) said Tuesday that generic polling doesn’t reflect how most people view the law.

“When you ask people, ‘Should you be able to keep more of what you’ve worked so hard to earn, you want to see the standard deduction doubled, do you want to get more help raising your kids, you want to see those paychecks rise,’ the answer invariably is ‘Yes,’” he told Fox Business Network’s Maria Bartiromo. “I think just the general comment, you sometimes get a different answer.”

Republicans also plan to put another tax plan to a vote this year, including making permanent individual tax cuts that are set to expire at the end of 2025.

Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.

More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents — Toplines | Crosstabs.