We weren't sure.

Everyone read the same news reports, the same Mort and Adam tweets, saw the same video of large men wearing suits walking into buildings. And people worried. There were tense negotiations, there were sighs of exasperation, there were angry declarations.

But after marathon discussions, tons of Chinese take-out and one awkward night in a hot tub with DeMaurice Smith, I'm thrilled that we will, in fact, have a 13th annual edition of the Draft Day Manifesto.

I wasn't sure I wanted to write it again this year, as I try to change a lot of things every year, but some of it has been printed, well, at least 12 times before. My editor demanded it, however, locking me out of my office until I agreed. I responded by organizing unofficial writing sessions with fantasy experts at local high school newspapers.

We were at loggerheads, as ESPN went about its business of putting out a draft kit and I spent a lot of time looking for an old-person dictionary to figure out what loggerheads meant.

But then, as I passed Smith the loofa one night, he said something that really made sense. "Who are you? You're creeping my wife out. Get out before I kick your ass, weirdo."

DeMaurice was right, of course. It was weird. Summer means preparing for the upcoming NFL season. It means prepping for your fantasy football draft. It means the Manifesto, dammit.

And so, a deal was brokered that will guarantee a Manifesto; I agreed to write it, and my editor agreed not to have me fired. A win-win for everyone. So what's up, party people? We're back.

There are some new twists, strategies and trends included, and we will get into all that, and let's make sure that those who are unfamiliar with my writing know that I was joking above. Obviously, I know what loggerheads means.

You see -- or, if you have one of those text-to-voice deals, you hear -- the Manifesto, at its core, is about giving you a blueprint for your draft day. A structure. A refresher/brush-up/get-back-into-the-swing-of-things for those who play or an introduction and primer for those who are deciding to finally take the plunge and try this fantasy thing that everyone's always talking about.

They say winning starts on draft day, but they lie. Winning starts way before, when you are prepping for draft day. So let's get you ready. We're gonna be here for a while, so sit back, put your feet up and start with one basic understanding. Underline it, print it out, read it aloud and make it your ringtone: At its fundamental level, fantasy football is all about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win.

Everything leads back to that.

Everything.

I'm gonna repeat it because it's that important and I get paid by the word.

At its fundamental level, fantasy football is all about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win.

Before you make any decision -- whom to draft, trade, start and sit -- make sure you are following that basic principle: How risky is this move, and does it give me the best chance to win?

Anyone who says they knew at this time last year that Brandon Lloyd would have more fantasy points than Andre Johnson, that Ryan Fitzpatrick would be better than Donovan McNabb and that Danny Woodhead would be significantly better than his training camp teammate Shonn Greene is a liar, and a bad one at that.

I can't predict the future. Don't claim to. Neither can you or anyone else.

That's the first rule of drafting.

All we can do is put ourselves in the best possible position to win, then hope for the best. There are going to be things that surprise you along the way. Like, I've just been informed that I don't, in fact, get paid by the word. And DeMaurice Smith has gotten a restraining order against me. Hmm. Tough 30 seconds there.

But whatever. If I got concerned with every person that sought a restraining order on me I'd never get anything done. So, I can't focus on that. Here's what I want all of us to focus on and focus on this only: Everything we do from this point forward -- from draft day to the end of the season -- is entirely about putting ourselves in the best position for success. Giving ourselves the best odds to win. That simple.

So, I've already lied to you. First, I didn't really organize unofficial writing sessions at local high schools, I actually just played a lot of "Words with Friends." And second, the previous paragraph is missing something crucial that gets lost a lot, especially in pre-draft strategy articles and discussion. Here's how that key sentence should read:

Everything we do from this point forward -- from draft day to the end of the season -- is entirely about putting ourselves in the best position for success every single week. Giving ourselves the best odds to win each week. That simple.

We hear talk about total points and overall seasons a lot, but this is a weekly game that we play. Every week we pick up new players, we set our lineup, we try to construct our team to win that week, while keeping an eye on the rest of the season and the playoffs.

So this article is ultimately about constructing a team on draft day that gives you the best foundation and odds to win every week.

Because it's a magic number and everything, we have three overarching themes we'll discuss in constructing your team and then go from there. Not surprisingly, they are (1) quarterback, (2) running back/wide receiver and (3) everything else.

You need a quarterback. A good one. And ideally, his name is Michael Vick.

This year, there are seven elite quarterbacks. In addition to Vick, it's Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo.

That's it. We could see Matt Schaub get into that category but with the emergence of Arian Foster and expected improvement in the Texans' defense, I'm not convinced he gets there. He was brutal in the first half of last season. If you read me last year, you know I love Josh Freeman and, certainly, Ben Roethlisberger will be solid. With Josh McDaniels calling plays, I could easily see Sam Bradford put up numbers like Kyle Orton did early last season, and I have Matthew Stafford (if he stays healthy) high on my sleeper list. And we know that Eli Manning and Matt Ryan, in that order, will be decent if unspectacular.

But for rock-solid, above-average production, it's those seven. You could say Romo is a bit of a risk and shouldn't even be in there and it'd be hard to argue with you, but I'm a Romo believer this year. So maybe it's just six guys. We'll get into why you want one of them in a bit, but first, let's talk about Michael Vick.

Those of you with quivering Jell-O for a backbone, with a profound lack of fantasy cojones, that would rather stand by the punch bowl of life instead of asking the cute stranger to dance, this is not the strategy for you. And that's OK. You're not alone.

Before I set to writing this article, I posted the following simple question on my Facebook page: Should Michael Vick be the No. 1 pick in fantasy?

A whopping 84.6 percent of you said "No." Or, to put it another way, only 15.4 percent of you got it right.

Here's my argument as to why Vick is not only worth a first-round pick, and not only should be the No. 1 quarterback taken, but should be the No. 1 pick overall. It's actually very simple.

If Michael Vick is as good as he was last season and stays healthy all year, you win your league. Period. And he's the only guy you can say that about.

Those of you who just screamed "What about Arian Foster?" at the screen should calm down. I can't hear you and we'll get to him in a bit. But first, let's talk about the numbers: Vick finished with 300 fantasy points in ESPN standard scoring, second overall (Foster had 313) and was the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback. Rodgers finished second among quarterbacks with 292 points.

OK, so it was a very good year. But not even the best one, right, Arian Foster supporters?

Wrong. Foster played all 16 games and Vick played only (for all intents and purposes) 11. You can't look at season totals because we don't play with season totals. We play week-to-week. And when you look week-to-week, Vick blows everyone out of the water.

In the 11 games he finished (more on that in a second), Vick averaged 27 points.

Rodgers played 14 games in which he finished the game and averaged 20 points per game.

That's a seven-point difference. But just for kicks, let's try it with every game they played. Here's their point-per-game averages:

Vick: 300 points in 12 games for 25 points per game.

Rodgers: 292 points in 15 games for 19.5 points per game.

It's still a five-points-per-game difference between Vick and the guy everyone else is telling you to take first among quarterbacks. As for the rest of the field? I took the top 10 quarterbacks after Vick last year (so numbers 2-11) on a points-per-game basis. Again, we're looking at winning week-to-week, so the per-game averages are more important to us than the season totals. The average weekly points scored for those 10 quarterbacks was 16.8. Vick was 8.2 points-per-game better than the average starting quarterback last year. Eight points is a lot.

I decided to do that for all the positions, taking the top points-per-game scorers at each position and comparing that player to the average of the next 10 guys at that position.

As you can plainly see, Vick was significantly better at his position, compared to the next 10 best guys, than the best player at any other position. Interesting that Gates was No. 2, huh? We'll get to him in a little while, but let's stop with fantasy points and just talk stats for a second.

You think you know how good Vick was last season, right? Well, I'm not convinced that you do. This is super-simplistic math, but it doesn't make it any less true. If you take what Vick did last year in the 11 games he finished and then extrapolated it to 16 games, those numbers would be 4,318 passing yards and 31 passing touchdowns and only nine interceptions. Those numbers last season would have put him fifth in total passing yards and tied for fourth in passing touchdowns. Those numbers would have equaled approximately 278 fantasy points ... or one point less than Peyton Manning scored last season.

And that's before Vick's run for even one yard.

His rushing numbers work out to 959 yards and 13 touchdowns with one lost fumble, good for approximately 171 points, which would have made Vick the 16th-best fantasy running back last season.

So again, this is all very loosey-goosey math, but just to get a sense of the potential we're talking about, extrapolated over a 16-game schedule last season, Michael Vick would have scored 449 points.

You heard me. Four. Four. Nine. Think Foster had a good season last year? Because his 313 points were peanuts compared to that. It was 136 points short, to be exact. Or, to put another way, two points more than Gates last season. Think about it. The difference between a 16-game Vick last season and No. 2 Arian Foster was Antonio Gates.

The difference between a 16-game Vick last year and the No. 3 player, Rodgers (292 points) is 157 points. Last season, Cedric Benson scored 158 points. That's what we're talking about with Vick; Aaron Rodgers and Cedric Benson rolled into one.

Look, you can poke all sorts of holes in this argument, and I acknowledge that. Vick is not without his flaws. You could draft a running back or wide receiver in the first round and wait a round or two and still get a very good (and "safer") quarterback than Michael Vick. But there are no guarantees; Tom Brady was as rock solid as they come until Bernard Pollard rolled over on his leg, and his "season for the ages" was worth only 386 points. (Four-four-nine!) And in the end, there is not one other quarterback, nay, player out there that has the potential that Vick has this fall to put together the best fantasy season ever.

Vick is certainly more injury prone than others, but Rodgers left one game early and missed another in the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-17), finishing with 1, 0, 34 and 13 points. Only one elite performance when you really needed him.

I asked the great Mike Polikoff, who oversees our league manager product, to poll the results from last season. Of all the teams that made the championship game last year in our standard 10 team leagues, I wondered what player showed up the most? Here's the top 30:

Players appearing on championship rosters, 2010 fantasy season

We're gonna come back to this list a few times, but a couple of things jump out at me: Not just that Vick was No. 1 by far, but that only one other quarterback made it: Philip Rivers, at No. 28. The list is comprised of nine running backs, nine wide receivers, four tight ends, four defenses, two kickers and two quarterbacks.

Now this list is skewed, of course, by late-season heroics and key waiver-wire pickups. I'm not suggesting you need to build your draft strategy around Deion Branch and the Falcons' D/ST. And you can certainly argue part of what pushed Vick to the top of this list is that he cost nothing to acquire. He was a late-round pick or free-agent pickup in almost every league, so even getting so-so production from your draft added to what Vick did as a free agent catapulted these teams to the finals.

Fair enough, we'll get to draft value in a second. But the point I want to drive home here is there's only two quarterbacks on this list and Vick, in just 12 games, was the only player in the league to be on more than one of every five teams that played for the big prize.

We always say you can't win your league in the first round but you could lose it. Well, this year, you could actually win it in the first round too. In fact, I'll argue that even if you get, say, 12 games out of Vick and five games with a waiver wire quarterback, you'll be in better shape than with any other quarterback (whom you'll have to replace for one bye week anyway). Think about guys such as Fitzpatrick, Orton, Matt Cassel, Shaun Hill, Bradford, Tim Tebow late, even Josh Freeman early in the year. All were available on waiver wires and gave you solid production when started in favorable matchups.

Could Vick fall short of last year? Absolutely and for many reasons. But with everything in place from the get-go, he could also do it again.

Or, dare to dream, be even better.

If You Don't Get Vick

You want one of those other six guys I just mentioned. Here's why, and it goes back to what we said at the start: Putting yourself in the best position to win.

It's because of the consistency of those quarterbacks. I looked at the top 10 drafted quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers over the past three years. I then looked at the top 10 scorers for each position in each of the past three years. I won't chart you to death here, because what I found should not shock you.

Last season, only five of the top 10 drafted running backs finished as a top-10 running back. In 2009, it again was five out of 10. And in 2008, it was just four of 10. Only one running back makes all six lists (drafted top 10, finished top 10): Adrian Peterson (Chris Johnson has made the list for the past two years).

For wide receivers, it was similar numbers: In 2010 and 2009, only five of the top-10 wide receivers drafted finished as a top-10 wide receiver. In 2008, it was just four. And only one guy appears on all six lists (drafted top 10, finished top 10): Andre Johnson. (Though Roddy White has been on the list the past two years, as has Reggie Wayne. Sigh.)

We're not talking about first round, we're talking about the first 10 guys drafted, no matter what round they went in. This is probably going into the fourth and fifth round for some of these wideouts.

All Adrian Peterson does is pile on yards and score touchdowns. Icon SMI

And over three years and 60 picks (with some overlap of players), only three guys make every list. Three. AP, CJ2K, Andre.

But quarterbacks? Much more consistent, at least compared to the guys they're throwing and handing off to.

In 2010, six of the top 10 quarterbacks finished in the top 10 of quarterback scoring. (And it would have been seven of 10 if any of you had listened to me about Jay Cutler. Serves you all right.)

In 2009, it was seven of 10 (and McNabb, drafted eighth among QBs that year, finished 11th.)

2008 was a really weird year, with Brady's injury (and Romo missing three games) plus guys such as Derek Anderson being drafted in the top 10. It was also Rodgers' first year as a starter and Kurt Warner rising from the dead in Arizona.

And yet, there were still four top-10 drafted guys that made the top 10 scorers, five if you want to count Cassel (filling in for Brady) and Romo finished 12th in scoring despite missing three games.

More importantly, if you count "NE QB" as one person, five quarterbacks make all three lists (Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers and "NE QB"). On a per-game basis, Romo would make it as well. And guess what? Add Michael Vick and that's our seven.

It's what we talked about in the beginning. These quarterbacks put you in a much better position to win. They are the most consistent, they have a much better chance of returning your investment.

Unless you draft Vick, you should need only one quarterback on your roster. (With Vick's injury concerns, I'd draft a guy like Bradford or Stafford, two guys I love this year, as a late-round sleeper. And yes, I know Stafford is also an injury risk. Still love him. Point is, a Vick owner should have someone else, but no need to draft that backup before you have a starting lineup, excluding defense and kicker, of course.

2. Running Backs and Wide Receivers, Wide Receivers and Running Backs

Another interesting nugget from Katherine Sharp of the crack ESPN Stats & Information team: Last season, 21 teams had at least two running backs with 100-plus touches (rushes + receptions).

Lotta guys touching the rock. More guys touching the ball, more chances for fantasy goodness.

Among the many things I am known for (What's your favorite? Don't say balding!) is my longtime baseball saying of "Don't Pay for Saves!" For those of who don't play fantasy baseball, the idea behind that credo is that saves are just one category. And often, what you were paying for, by using a high draft pick or being the top bidder for a closer, was opportunity. The difference between Craig Kimbrel and Johnny Venters this year is not skills as much as it is that Kimbrel gets the call in the ninth inning and Venters usually does not. But there is a lot of turnover in that position (although less this year than normal), so in a 10-team mixed league, you have chances to find saves cheaply elsewhere and you can use your draft resources (high draft picks or auction money) to build in other areas.

I feel that way with running backs and wide receivers. Michael Vick last year was a crazy anomaly. And thanks to injuries to Romo and Big Ben's suspension, we saw Josh Freeman sneak in the top 10. But generally speaking, it's rare for a quarterback to come out of nowhere and be a stud. Yes, there is the occasional Kurt Warner, or Brett Favre's first year in Minnesota, not to mention guys who get on a hot streak for a few games, like Fitzpatrick and Tebow did last year or, like Tyler Thigpen in Kansas City a few seasons ago.

But for the most part, it is rare for a quarterback to come out of nowhere and be consistently starter worthy (a top-10 quarterback). But for running backs and wide receivers?

Well, I looked at the top 20 fantasy scorers at both running back and wide receiver for the past three years. More importantly, how many of those top 20 (starters at both positions in a standard 10-team league) were actually not drafted in the top 20? In other words, how many breakout guys were there?

2008: Eight of top 20 running backs were not in the top 20 running backs by average draft position. Nine of top 20 overall wide receivers were not in the top 20 receivers by average draft position.

2009: Nine of top 20 running backs were not in the top 20 running backs by average draft position. Seven of top 20 overall wide receivers were not in the top 20 receivers by average draft position.

2010: Eight of top 20 running backs were not in the top 20 running backs by average draft position. Ten of top 20 overall wide receivers were not in the top 20 receivers by average draft position.

To be exact, over the past three seasons, 43 percent of "starting" running backs and wide receivers have come by their roles despite not being drafted as such.

Look, I had Arian Foster as a big-time sleeper even before Ben Tate got injured (I liked him in June! Check the archives!) but not even in my wildest dreams did I think he'd do what he did last year. There are lots of guys like that. OK, not exactly like that, but guys such as Peyton Hillis or Stevie Johnson who, for one reason or another, will outperform their draft day value.

The problem, of course, is we don't know who those guys will be. We have some sleeper ideas, of course, but the only thing we know for sure is that guys will emerge, whoever they might be. Which is why I want your roster to ultimately look like this:

One quarterback (two if you have Vick), one tight end, one defense and one kicker ... and the rest are all running backs and wide receivers. Once again, it's about giving yourself the best odds at success. In lieu of knowing who'll break out, we'll grab as many potential guys as possible. Only one or two need to hit.

So, instead of "Don't Pay for Saves," it's "Quantity over Quality," which could easily be a slogan for my college years. The more running backs and wideouts you've got, the better chance you have to hit pay dirt.

It also gives you the most flexibility during the year. Remember, this is about constructing a team that can win every week. We don't play a year-long game. We (ideally) play 17 weekly games. If you have a stud quarterback, you're starting him. Period. Kickers are kickers and we'll talk defense and tight ends in a bit, but basically, you're starting the one you have and that's it. And that leaves 12 (or 11 on a team with Vick) wideouts and runners for five starting roles. Between matchups, performance and your team's depth, you should be able to maximize that every week. Or at least give yourself the best odds of doing so.

Picking the right players in the right rounds

So we're loading up on running backs and wide receivers, but what about at the top of the draft? We know we want an elite quarterback (hopefully Vick) in the first four rounds, but what about the other rounds?

Let's start with the wide receivers. My feeling is that touchdowns are generally impossible to predict. Don't hand me red-zone targets, either. Danny Amendola was tied for the NFL lead in that category last year and had three whole scores. Last year, Lance Moore had more touchdowns than Larry Fitzgerald or Reggie Wayne. Tampa Bay rookie Mike Williams had more than consensus No. 1 Andre Johnson, and Joel Dreesen had the same as Chad Ochocinco.

Instead of touchdowns, I like to judge consistent players based on yardage.

Do you know how many wide receivers had five or more 100-yard games last year? I mean, five is not that many, right? Basically once every three games, right?

The answer is seven. Thirty-two teams, three main receivers each and only seven players of more than 90 guys had five or more 100-yard receiving games: Mike Wallace (seven), Andre Johnson (six), Brandon Lloyd (six), Roddy White (five), Dwayne Bowe (five), Greg Jennings (five) and Miles Austin (five).

Do you know how many of those seven had at least five 100 yard games the previous season? Only three: Johnson, Austin and Jennings. And only Johnson and Jennings make the list each of the past three years.

Other than providing a good counter argument for those that don't like Jennings because of Jermichael Finley's presence, I say that what the fact above points to is that there are only a handful of elite guys at this position. You need one of them.

Let's move on and look at the running backs from last season who had five or more 100-yard games (total yards).

Per Elias Sports Bureau, there were 17 of them, more than twice as many as wide receivers. Those runners were (number of 100 total yard games in parentheses):

Jamaal Charles led the NFL in 100-yard games thanks to his soft hands and speed in the open field. US Presswire

Jamaal Charles (13)

Arian Foster (12)

Darren McFadden (10)

Steven Jackson (9)

Maurice Jones-Drew (9)

LeSean McCoy (9)

Adrian Peterson (9)

Ray Rice (9)

Chris Johnson (8)

Ahmad Bradshaw (7)

Matt Forte (7)

Frank Gore (7)

Peyton Hillis (7)

Michael Turner (7)

Knowshon Moreno (6)

LaDainian Tomlinson (6)

BenJarvus Green-Ellis (5)

The repeaters from the year before on this list? Johnson, Rice, Steven Jackson, Peterson, Jones-Drew, Gore, Charles, Forte.

And on the list for three straight years? Peterson, Jackson, Johnson, Jones-Drew, Gore and Forte actually. There are more elite guys and more running backs who get yardage in a more consistent manner than wideouts who can do the same. And more means more opportunity to stock up on them early in the draft.

I look at the upper tier of running backs and I think you'd be good with any one of them as your lead back: Peterson, Johnson, Charles, Foster, McCoy, Mendenhall, Turner, Gore, Rice, Jones-Drew, Jackson, McFadden. Some are better than others, some carry more risk than others, but 12 guys that I consider elite and then a lot of depth at the position beyond that. Depending on where DeAngelo Williams lands, he could potentially be on that list, if Moreno doesn't get competition in Denver, he could be there under John Fox, I know a lot of people are excited about Jonathan Stewart without DeAngelo Williams there (I'm lukewarm but someone will grab him early) and I absolutely love LeGarrette Blount this year.

By another token, there are only six wideouts whom I feel are elite: Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings, Hakeem Nicks and I feel Mike Wallace gets there this year. Larry Fitzgerald could join them with a real quarterback and Vincent Jackson certainly has the potential, but it's a much shorter list. Which means you need to get at least one elite wideout early, as they are rare.

Arian, Arian, Arian

Can he repeat? If you've read me for at all in the past two years (I took a bunch of heat for liking him as a rookie in Week 15 of '09), you know I love this guy. But can he repeat? History says no.

Mark Malzewski of ESPN Stats & Information pulled the numbers on every running back in the last 20 years who has had at least 18 touchdowns in a season and looked at what they did the following year.

Running backs with 18+ TDs (rushing and receiving) since 1991

It has happened 23 times since 1991. And of those 23, the running back met or exceeded the 18 touchdowns only nine times. And those nine times were done by Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes and LaDainian Tomlinson. Five players in 20 years. And the three most recent guys to do it -- DeAngelo, Peterson and the last year of Tomlinson -- haven't been able to repeat. History says Foster will be good, but not as good as last season.

3. Everything Else

Let's discuss kickers, defenses and tight ends.

First, kickers. Don't you dare take a kicker until the last round! You say it's obvious, but then, every draft I am in, I always see at least one person take a kicker before the last round. Heck, Nate Kaeding's average draft position last season was the 11th round!

Among the other players that went around the 11th round last year were Darren McFadden, Santonio Holmes, Ben Roethlisberger and Thomas Jones. Kaeding finished 14th among kickers in scoring.

Let's look at two numbers: 150 and 121. Those numbers are the scoring totals of Sebastian Janikowski (last year's No. 1 kicker) and Billy Cundiff, last year's No. 10.

Assuming you could have even predicted Janikowski would be the No. 1 kicker, which no one could have (he was the 15th kicker taken on average last year), he was only 29 points better than the 10th-best kicker (ostensibly, the last guy you wind up with in a standard-size league).

Twenty-nine points.

Over the course of a 16-game fantasy football season, that's less than two points a game. Two. And that's assuming you correctly predicted who the best kicker will be, which is nigh impossible, and two points a game ain't that much of an incentive to play that particular lottery when you're passing up on the chance to draft a guy with real upside, like McFadden turned out to have.

Bottom line? The only thing I hate more than kickers are people who draft them before the last round.

OK, defenses. Somewhat of the same theory here. If you want a more detailed analysis of fantasy defense and why you shouldn't waste anything but a late draft pick on them, read Christopher Harris' column on this very subject.

Remember the chart showing the top 30 players owned by championship-game teams? There were four defenses listed; the most common were the Patriots, drafted 14th among defenses last year. Then came the Bears (drafted 10th), Steelers (last year's No. 6 defense by ADP) and Falcons (selected 26th among defenses!).

Defenses are hard to predict and good defenses on the gridiron don't always make good defenses on the fantasy stats sheet. (As Chris Harris points out, last year's 12th-best fantasy defense was Arizona, which gave up 27 points a game). More importantly, it's fairly easy to spot-start defenses based on matchups. The Falcons had a solid defense, to be sure, but they showed up on that list of championship-playing teams because Atlanta had Carolina twice, Seattle and the Saints at home during the fantasy playoffs. Many fantasy owners rode the playoff-bound Falcons into their own fantasy title game. Anyway, Harris' article gives a lot more stats on why it's not a great idea to waste anything other than a very late-round pick on a defense. Check it out or just take my word for it and move on.

Which brings us, finally, to tight ends.

Remember this chart from earlier?

Points per game difference between top scorer and next 10 at position

I was using it to prop up my "Vick should be No. 1" argument, but now I want to look at it for tight ends to fully demonstrate how dominant Antonio Gates was. He played in only 10 games and was still the second-highest scoring tight end in the league, averaging a league-leading 13.4 points per game.

Here's some other tight ends:

Dallas Clark: 8.5 points per game (in six games).

Owen Daniels: 9.5 points per game (final four games only, once fully healthy).

Jermichael Finley: 8.5 points per game in only four games.

Jason Witten: 8.3 points per game

Jacob Tamme: 8.2 points per game)

Vernon Davis: 8.1 points per game

Marcedes Lewis: 7.4 points per game

Rob Gronkowski: 6.7 points per game

Kellen Winslow: 6 points per game

Chris Cooley: 6 points per game

Tony Gonzalez: 6 points per game

Zach Miller: 6 points per game

Dustin Keller: 5.9 points per game

Brandon Pettigrew: 5.5 points per game

Now, many of these tight ends had big games here and there, exploiting the Bills for two touchdowns and helping you win that week, for example. But generally speaking, they are all about the same. Are Clark, Witten, Davis, Finley and Daniels (sleeper!) better than Cooley and Winslow? Yes. But the point differential between these guys is something like 20 to 30 yards a game. Not insignificant, but not must-haves either.

And look, it's one year, a lot can happen, and you don't want to draw too many conclusions from just one season. But I think I'm in pretty safe territory when I say that Antonio Gates is something special. And the advantage he gives you above all the other tight ends is more pronounced than any other QB, RB or WR you would be able to draft in the third or fourth round, where Gates is likely to be drafted this year.

One more chart, this one showing the predictability of positions. Basically, where was a guy drafted (ADP) and where he finished in terms of fantasy points for the year. This is for the top 10 QBs and TEs and top 20 RBs and WRs from last season:

2010 "starting" skills position players, draft-day versus final value

So, we find that there is about a 10-spot differential in value between a starting running back and wide receiver versus the value you get out of the shallower but more cost-effective quarterback and tight ends positions. There is much more movement in the ranks of the starting running backs and wide receivers and that leads to more opportunities for players to emerge, because guess what? For every wide receiver or running back drafted in the top 20 that doesn't end the year that way, there's a wide receiver or running back drafted outside of the top 20 that makes that leap into start-dom. Remember this sentence? "To be exact, over the past three seasons, 43 percent of 'starting' running backs and wide receivers have come by their roles despite not being drafted as such." That's why you need as many of these guys as possible, to give yourself the best possible chance to get these surprise starters and win, week after week.

Here is the same research for the past three seasons. I'll spare you the names, these are just the results:

2010 "starting" skills position players, draft-day versus final value

The 2008 year for QBs was heavily influenced by the Brady and Romo injuries, but fair is fair. Quarterback isn't immune from the randomness of football. Still, over the past three seasons, quarterback and tight end represent a much better invest on your draft pick than, generally speaking, running backs and wide receivers.

So when using a high draft pick (first four rounds), why not use two of them on a quarterback and Antonio Gates? Even if you have to reach for Gates, it's worth it. He gives you that much of an advantage over everyone else at that position, every single week.

Look, we're generalizing here, which is always dangerous and it doesn't deal with specific players; people who drafted Adrian Peterson in the first round last season and grabbed Philip Rivers late were probably pretty happy with their teams. You'll find many player combinations that will work out and many that will fail. But in terms of theory, many more RBs and WRs will emerge and are much more likely to have good games based on matchups or opportunities than quarterbacks and tight ends.

To put it another way -- and pay attention, this is important here -- if you head into a matchup every week with a clear-cut advantage at tight end and quarterback, you are much more likely to win. To wit, I will do everything I can to get Michael Vick and Antonio Gates on every team I own this year.

Can you make an argument that Clark or Finley could outscore Gates and that much of his production last year was due to all the injuries to other receiving options on San Diego? Of course. But he's also the safest guy out there. Over the past four years, Gates has 44 touchdowns, most of any tight end. Clark is second with 34. Gates also is the leader is yards per game over the past four years (Witten is second).

If someone else has his eye on Gates and beats you to him, don't worry. Same rule applies as with the top tier of quarterbacks; there's an elite and then there's "the rest." Between Dallas Clark, Jermichael Finley, Jason Witten and Vernon Davis, you'll get your guy. Yes, tight end is deep and maybe you'll be OK week-to-week with Tony Moeaki or Brandon Pettigrew, two guys I like a lot this season, but once you get beyond the elite guys, I find that the depth at this position has made the whole lot look a lot like kickers; yes, any given week, one will go off, and at the end of the year, you'll have a bunch of guys who'll have scored 60-90 points. But good luck figuring out which one to start from week to week. It's gonna be a bumpy ride. The only advantage to this quagmire of talent is that, if you lose your tight end, you'll be able to pick one up and be on par with everyone else.

So, to recap, my very long draft strategy this year can be boiled down this way:

1. Get an elite quarterback. Ideally Vick but definitely one of the top seven.

San Diego veteran Antonio Gates remains one of the NFL's elite tight ends. Jody Gomez/US Presswire

2. Get an elite tight end. Ideally Gates, but definitely one of the top five.

3. Your roster should have just one kicker, one defense, one elite tight end, one quarterback (unless you feel like you need Vick insurance, in which case you can grab a nice arm late) and the rest need to be nothing but wide receivers and running backs. We know players will pop, we know they'll likely be running backs and wide receivers, we just don't know who they'll be, so the idea is to maximize your chances at getting one of those players. Panning for gold, as it were.

4. Your first four picks should include one quarterback, one running back, one wide receiver and either Gates or another wide receiver or running back.

5. Your next 10 picks will be the best available running backs and wide receivers, with the only exception being one of the other four elite tight ends in the fifth or sixth round if you don't get Gates.

6. You will end with a defense and kicker.

That's my theory. There are tons of others written about elsewhere in this draft kit, and as your draft (or auction!) unfolds, you'll have to adjust on the fly. Which is why I highly recommend our mock draft lobby (now with eight-, 10- and 12-team leagues) to practice different strategies.

Decisions, decisions

Whatever strategy you decide on, you now need to set up your league, which means five huge things have to be decided:

1. Is it a draft? Or is it an auction?

2. What are the other rules of the game?

3. Where are we playing it out?

4. Where/when are we doing the draft?

5. What shall we eat?

Let's take them one by one. If you're already all set and want to get on with more draft day prep, just skip ahead to the next section.

1. Is it a draft? Or is it an auction?

First, I highly recommend an auction. The argument against was always that, to do it correctly, everyone needed to be in the same room. Now, thanks to our auction draft software, that's no longer a concern.

It's more engaging, it's more fun and, most importantly, it's the truest test of skill. In a draft, maybe three people, at most, are getting a shot at Adrian Peterson this year. In an auction, everyone has a shot at AP. In fact, everyone has a shot at every player. It's about money management, reading your competitors, calling their bluffs, identifying value and reacting quickly. Those who complain that luck plays too big a part in fantasy football can limit a lot of it by using an auction.

Yes, luck will still play a part during the season because of scheduling, injuries and the occasional fantasy heartbreak-type play, like Stevie Johnson's drop against the Steelers. But this gets rid of the constriction on a draft. You wanna brag about how smart you are? How much more brilliant you are than anyone else? Then even the playing field and give everyone a shot at every player.

Try it once and you'll be hooked. And if you've never tried it, you can do it now in our free mock draft and auction lobby. Right now. Go ahead. This article will still be here later. Actually, come back, don't come back, I don't care. I've already got your click. Anyway, auctions are the way to go. I cannot recommend this strongly enough.

2. What are the other rules of the game?

I like the 10-team standard version we offer and I also like 12-team. I like standard slightly more than PPR; I'm not a fan of leagues that use individual defensive players (IDP), but those who play that way swear by it. I like keeper leagues and I insist on a free-agent acquisition budget (FAAB -- more on that in a second). I like two weeks per playoff matchup (the way we do it with standard leagues here on ESPN, so one bad week doesn't kill an entire season) and four teams making the playoffs in a 10-team league.

But whatever way you play, you must have two things: a strong commissioner and an iron-clad constitution. If you play in a public league on ESPN, you're fine. The rules are set up very clearly. But if you're in a private league you've got to have those two things.

Nothing makes a league less fun than a shady commish or a gray area around the rules. And there's always a gray area if there is no constitution. For the love of all that is pure and good, if your league doesn't have a written set of rules before draft day, write some down before you draft. Insist on your league manager drafting a written constitution, and try to think of every possible circumstance. Tiebreakers, penalties for collusion, everything. This is supposed to be fun, and nothing sucks that out quicker than angry email wars over rules confusion. Save the angry emails for deciding who loves the TMR the most, baby!

(If you're not sure where to start, see my colleague AJ Mass' primer on how to construct a league constitution.)

At the beginning of the baseball season two years ago, I wrote what turned out to be one of my favorite columns ever. It was all about my very first fantasy league, a baseball league that continues to this day, 26 years later. I highly recommend you read it, and not just because I'm a shameless panderer for clicks. First, you'll get to see actual video of dorky 14-year-old me at my first draft. Seriously, not to be missed, for lovers and haters alike.

Second, most of it relates to all leagues, not just baseball. It's as good a blueprint on how to run and participate in a league as anything else that's out there. It's a relatively quick read. In addition, I'll do an updated and expanded version of this soon. In the meantime, I also wrote a column last year detailing the different types of fun rules and ideas of "what makes a league great." Check it out.

If there's one rule I want you to strongly consider, however, it's the Free Agent Acquisition Budget, or FAAB. If you play fantasy baseball, you are probably familiar with the concept, but it's relatively new for fantasy football. The idea is very simple.

After the draft, every team is given a set amount of "money" for its FAAB. Let's say it's $100. Then, once or more a week -- you can set up the frequency and the day(s) -- you have an auction of free agents. Instead of waivers or first-come/first-serve, this is a much fairer way to distribute the hot backup running back that just got the starting gig or the emerging rookie wideout. Just like in an auction, with FAAB bidding, everyone has a shot at every single free agent.

You want the guy so bad you can taste it? You just have to pay the most. But once you run out, you run out, so be careful whom you bid on. Now, instead of having to be online all day every day (or competing with the guy who is), it adds another level of strategy to a game many accuse of being luck-based. It's really dope, or it would be if people still used that word. I'm at loggerheads with those who don't.

Anyway, there are tons of ways to do it, but my suggestion is to allow $0 bids and do FAAB bidding every night.

3. Where are we playing it out?

You know I am a company man, so I'll just mention that everything you and your league need is here and free on ESPN.com. And here's the thing: I've played on other sites. I'm not trashing other sites. Many of them are very solid. But -- and I am being honest here -- the best experience is on ESPN.com. And if you don't believe me, it's because you haven't tried it recently.