After her unexpected surge into third place in New Hampshire, Amy Klobuchar had a narrow window to consolidate support and emerge as a serious threat to Sanders. Her poor showing in Nevada — fifth place with just over 4 percent as of late Saturday — left her little to brag about in her caucus evening speech. She had to reach back to the story about braving a snowstorm during her outdoor announcement speech last year instead of pointing to anything positive in the Nevada results. Without much money, organization or a realistic expectation of doing well in South Carolina, she is likely to be an afterthought going into Super Tuesday.

The momentum of Buttigieg, who was Sanders' strongest opponent in Iowa and New Hampshire, stalled out in Nevada. He slipped into third place, well behind Biden. Long-shot candidacies need to continue to surge forward with unexpected results to overcome doubts. But Buttigieg’s success in Iowa and New Hampshire was not enough to change the minds of enough people in Nevada. A victory here for him would have been catalytic, but the Sanders blowout has halted his rise. He is still likely to be second behind Sanders in the delegate race, but the early states are all about momentum, not delegates.

While Klobuchar, Warren, and Buttigieg all did worse in Nevada than they did in the first two states, Biden did better, though a second-place finish 20 percentage points behind Sanders isn’t much to crow about for a former vice president. Still, being on the upswing, however gradual it is, going into South Carolina is essential for Biden. If he is the first candidate to definitively defeat Sanders in a contest, it could resurrect his campaign. And while Sanders did eat into Biden’s support among African Americans in Nevada, Biden still won that demographic overall.

Biden’s possible resurrection in South Carolina also makes the case for Mike Bloomberg tenuous. Bloomberg got into the race by arguing he would be a Bernie slayer if Biden collapsed. But Biden’s stubborn refusal to collapse means Bloomberg is now more likely to play the role of assisting Sanders’ march to the nomination — by keeping Biden wounded and the non-Sanders candidates further divided — rather than preventing it.

The race is Sanders’ to lose. He’s the best funded non-billionaire candidate. He has the best organization. He is winning the broadest coalition.

