Authorities say up to 30 fragments of Rosat satellite could survive re-entry to hit Earth's surface later this week

This article is more than 8 years old

This article is more than 8 years old

A retired satellite is hurtling toward the atmosphere and pieces of it could crash into the Earth as early as Friday, the German Aerospace Centre has said.

Scientists are no longer able to communicate with the dead German satellite Rosat, which orbits the earth every 90 minutes, and experts are unsure exactly where pieces could land.

Parts of the satellite, which is the size of a minivan, will burn up during re-entry but up to 30 fragments – weighing a total of 1.7 tonnes – could crash into the Earth between Friday and Monday, the centre's spokesman, Andreas Schuetz, told Associated Press.

"All countries around the globe between 53 degrees north and 53 degrees south could possibly be affected," he said. The vast area includes much of the Earth outside the poles.

The scientific satellite was launched in 1990 and retired in 1999 after being used for research on black holes and neutron stars and performing the first all-sky survey of x-ray sources with an imaging telescope.

The largest single fragment of Rosat that could hit the Earth is the telescope's heat-resistant mirror, which weighs 1.6 tonnes.

The satellite will re-enter the atmosphere at a speed of 17,400mph (28,000 kmph). As it nears the Earth, scientists will be able to more accurately estimate exactly when it will land, to within a window of about 10 hours.

A dead Nasa satellite fell into the southern Pacific Ocean last month, causing no damage, despite fears it would hit a populated area and result in damage or death.

The German space agency puts the odds of somebody somewhere on Earth being hurt by its satellite at one in 2,000 – a slightly higher level of risk than was calculated for the Nasa satellite.

Any individual's odds of being struck are one in 14 trillion, given that there are 7 billion people on the planet.