01:22 Hurricane Teddy Bringing Big Waves to New England Coast Hurricane Teddy is bringing heavy rain and big waves as it moves toward Atlantic Canada.

At a Glance Invest 97L is now spreading rain and gusty winds into the Windward Islands.

This disturbance will likely develop into a tropical storm soon.

It will threaten parts of the Caribbean Sea, possibly as a hurricane, this weekend or early next week.

Potential U.S. impact next week remains unclear. (MORE: Tropical Storm Matthew Becomes the 13th Named Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season; Warnings Issued in the Windward Islands )

Invest 97L is spreading rain and gusty winds into the Windward Islands, and is still likely to become Tropical Storm Matthew soon, eventually posing a threat early next week in the Caribbean basin and potentially parts of the U.S. later next week.

(MORE: What is an Invest? )

Hurricane Hunters Wednesday morning found winds with this tropical disturbance were already up to 40-45 mph, but are still attempting to find a closed surface low which would prompt an upgrade to Tropical Storm Matthew.

So far, 97L has been a strong tropical wave, featuring winds shifting from northeasterly ahead of the wave to southeasterly behind the wave, but lacking any west winds at the surface.

(MORE: Why Tropical Waves Are Important in Hurricane Season )

First Stop: Windward Islands

Regardless of what this system is called by meteorologists, radar imagery from Meteo France already indicates showers have spread into the Windward Islands.

Some bands of rain may reach as far north as the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and may persist into Thursday in the Windward Islands.

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://s.w-x.co/images/maps/truvu/map_specnewsdct-36_ltst_4namus_enus_160x90.jpg" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/images/maps/truvu/map_specnewsdct-36_ltst_4namus_enus_160x90.jpg 400w, https://s.w-x.co/images/maps/truvu/map_specnewsdct-36_ltst_4namus_enus_160x90.jpg 800w" > Five-Day Possible Formation Area

Some of these bands of rain could be locally heavy, with some localized flooding possible.

It should be noted this disturbance is starting out at a fairly low latitude, just north of 10 degrees. Therefore, locally heavy rain and gusty winds are expected in such locations as St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, perhaps even coastal Venezuela.

These showers may be accompanied by occasional wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph.

(MORE: Hurricane Central )

Caribbean Forecast

By Thursday, the system will be in the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Again, given the southern track, there could be locally heavy rain and strong winds in the typically drier "ABC Islands" – Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao – as well as parts of coastal Venezuela and Colombia Thursday through early Saturday.

Beyond that, uncertainty is still considerable on the critical details of this system.

First of all, west to southwest winds aloft over the eastern Caribbean Sea are providing some wind shear, which is typically hostile to the development and intensification of tropical cyclones.

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://s.w-x.co/images/maps/truvu/map_specnewsdct-18_ltst_4namus_enus_160x90.jpg" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/images/maps/truvu/map_specnewsdct-18_ltst_4namus_enus_160x90.jpg 400w, https://s.w-x.co/images/maps/truvu/map_specnewsdct-18_ltst_4namus_enus_160x90.jpg 800w" > Current Satellite, Wind Shear (Areas of high wind shear are shown in the purple contours.) (Areas of high wind shear are shown in the purple contours.)

Assuming the shear diminishes, the "future Matthew" should eventually be able to intensify in the Caribbean Sea.

(MORE: Just Because It's Fall Doesn't Mean We Shouldn't Pay Attention to the Tropics )

In general, ensemble forecast guidance suggests the "future Matthew" should make a northwest or even northward turn in the Caribbean Sea sometime this weekend, as the system reaches the southwestern edge of the Bermuda high.

"Future Matthew" could then threaten Hispañola, Jamaica or parts of eastern Cuba as soon as early next week.

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/97l-matthew-steering-wknd.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0" srcset="https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/97l-matthew-steering-wknd.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0 400w, https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/97l-matthew-steering-wknd.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0 800w" > Upper-level features expected to be in play to eventually turn the system more northwestward or even northward this weekend.

U.S. Threat?

Beyond that, it is far too soon to determine which parts of the U.S. may be in danger from this "future Matthew".

As the Weather Channel hurricane expert, Michael Lowry eloquently put it in a recent blog post :

"The science tells us there’s no skill in seven-to-ten day forecasts of tropical systems that haven’t formed (like invests)."

Ensemble forecast guidance includes scenarios where "future Matthew" moves north, then northeast remaining well off the East Coast, but also includes tracks into the Gulf of Mexico next week.

(MORE: Why Long-Range Model Forecasts For the Tropics Can't Often Be Trusted )

The track will depend, in part, on the steering currents in the atmosphere.

If high pressure aloft is stronger near or over the Eastern U.S., that may steer "future Matthew" closer to some part of the U.S.



Conversely, if a southward dip in the jet stream is in play over some part of the Eastern U.S., that could help deflect "future Matthew" to the east.

For now, it appears the majority of our ensemble guidance has some form of high pressure aloft over some part of the East next week, implying a land threat for at least part of the U.S. coast.

It's also worth noting interaction with land, including mountainous terrain in the Caribbean, which may also play a significant role in this system's future.

Colorado State University tropical scientist, Dr. Phil Klotzbach noted 60 percent of landfalling U.S. hurricanes from September 27 and beyond since 1900 have occurred in Florida . However, while lower probability, there have been landfalls this late in the season as far west as the Texas Gulf Coast.

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/trop_tracks_oct.png?v=at&w=485&h=273&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0" srcset="https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/trop_tracks_oct.png?v=at&w=485&h=273&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0 400w, https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/trop_tracks_oct.png?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0 800w" > Typical October named storm origin locations and tracks.

For now, all interests in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Bahamas and U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of this system. Check back with us frequently at weather.com for any important forecast updates.

Now is a good time to make sure you're prepared before the storm. Are you #HurricaneStrong ?

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