Ohio 12th special election: How Donald Trump turned this safe Republican seat into a toss-up

Jessie Balmert | Cincinnati Enquirer

Show Caption Hide Caption Vice President Mike Pence visits Newark Vice President Mike Pence visited Newark Monday to campaign for Troy Balderson, a Republican candidate for Ohio's 12th District Congressional District.

COLUMBUS - If it weren't for President Donald Trump, no one would be talking about Ohio's 12th congressional district.

That's because the race to replace former U.S. Rep. Pat Tiberi shouldn't be competitive.

Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats 2-to-1 in the central Ohio district, which includes Columbus' northern suburbs and rural surrounding counties. Voters there gave Tiberi double-digit victories for years and elected Trump by 11 percentage points in 2016.

But Republicans aren't treating Tuesday's election like the cake walk it has been for decades. For the first time in years, the Ohio 12th congressional district is considered a toss-up.

That's thanks largely to one man: President Trump.

Republican Troy Balderson, a 56-year-old state senator, is courting Trump supporters and Gov. John Kasich backers alike. Both GOP politicians, who lately have agreed on little, have endorsed Balderson.

Democrat Danny O'Connor, a 31-year-old county elected official, is appealing to frustrated Republican suburbanites concerned about Trump's tone and enthusiastic progressive activists frightened by Trump's policies.

"There’s a unique energy in the 12th," said Ohio Democratic Party Chairman David Pepper, optimistic about the Democratic landslide in early voting. "They are passionate about changing leadership in Washington."

More John Kasich, less Bernie Sanders

Standing on a podium surrounded by hay at the Ohio State Fair, O'Connor sounded more like Gov. Kasich than progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders.

O'Connor, dressed in khaki shorts and a polo, wasn't talking about issues that drive wedges between Republicans and Democrats, such as guns, abortion or immigration. He didn't mention Trump or Speaker Paul Ryan or even Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.

Instead, O'Connor talked about health care, Social Security and bipartisanship.

“I think we can work together on this stuff," O'Connor said. "There is no Democratic solution. There is no Republican solution. There’s not an independent solution for what ails our country. There’s an American solution.”

That bipartisan tone is no accident. O'Connor will need more than just Democrats to win the special election.

That's why O'Connor says he supports "common sense" solutions to health care and would defend Kasich's Medicaid expansion. He hasn't advocated for Medicare for all, a Sanders-backed policy of government-run health insurance.

On guns, O'Connor says he supports the Second Amendment but also advocates for banning those on the no-fly list from having a firearm.

On Democrats' polarizing leader Nancy Pelosi, O'Connor said he wouldn't vote for her and instead advocated for new leadership. Later, O'Connor admitted in an MSNBC interview that he would vote for Pelosi if the alternative were a Republican speaker.

Republicans seized on the flub, but O'Connor says voters don't bring up Pelosi at all. "It’s a Washington insider gotcha-type thing, and I just think most folks don’t care.”

The Trump card. And the Kasich card?

While O'Connor runs from Pelosi, Balderson is running toward Trump.

"Go Trump!" cheered Balderson as he introduced Vice President Mike Pence at a rally last week in Newark.

Team Trump is doubling down on its support for Balderson, looking for a win in the all-important swing state to quash talk of a Democratic "blue wave" before voters hit the polls in November. Trump has tweeted repeatedly that Balderson is his pick for the seat. In addition to the rally, Pence has hosted a fundraiser for Balderson.

Trump himself campaigned for Balderson at a Columbus-area high school on Saturday.

This race is about more than just Ohio. It's about Trump's popularity in the Midwest. Jane Timken, leader of the state Republican Party, asked voters to "send a message to the Democrats and the media pundits across this country that the American people are happy with the direction that Republican leadership is taking us."

.@Troy_Balderson of Ohio is running for Congress - so important to the Republican Party. Cast you early vote or vote on August 7th. Troy is strong on crime and borders, loves our Military, our Vets and our Second Amendment. He has my full and total Endorsement! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 27, 2018

Balderson lines up with conservatives on key issues: pro-gun rights, anti-Medicaid expansion and anti-abortion access. Like Trump, Balderson supports coal mining, which has been a key industry for the district's rural residents.

During the Newark rally, Balderson promised not to take away Social Security or Medicare from his mother – or, presumably, women her age. (Balderson has said he would consider raising the minimum age to qualify for Social Security and Medicare.)

Trump's endorsement might help win over Republicans who preferred a more conservative alternative in the GOP primary. Freedom Caucus-backed Melanie Lenaghan is still contesting the results of the May vote in court.

Another wild card in the race: Green Party nominee Joe Manchik. He was at the Pence rally, trying to win Republican votes over from Balderson.

But Balderson isn't relying on Trump alone to win the Ohio 12th. He has appealed to supporters of another leader: Kasich.

Despite waning support among Republicans, Kasich remains popular in the Ohio 12th. He once represented that area in Congress. In the 2016 GOP presidential primary, Kasich won each of those counties – and the state – over Trump. It should come as no surprise that both Balderson and O'Connor have complimented Kasich's policies.

Ultimately, Kasich decided to endorse Balderson and appear in a super PAC ad supporting his fellow Republican.

Kasich, in his endorsement, almost paints Balderson as a check on Trump: "We share views on many issues, including trade, national security and ending family separation at the border." Those are some of the same issues Kasich battles Trump on.

Can Balderson unite "Trump Republicans" and "Kasich Republicans" in this race? He might have to, to win.

When is the election?

In this election, voters will decide who will fill the remaining four months of former Rep. Tiberi's term. On Nov. 6, voters will pick a representative for the next two years.

The district covers all of Delaware County, Morrow County and Licking County and portions of Franklin, Marion, Muskingum and Richland counties.

Marilyn Icsman contributed reporting.