February 03, 2020 Syrian Army Progress Leads To New Scuffle Between Turkey And Russia The continuing Syrian army operation to liberate Idleb governorate is leading to a new clash between Turkey and Russia. The governorate of Idleb is still largely occupied by Turkish controlled 'rebels' and al-Qaeda aligned Jihadi groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The Astana agreement between Turkey and Russia, signed in September 2018, included a ceasefire in the governorate, buffer zones, and the reopening of the M4 highway between the coast and Aleppo city and the M5 highway between Damascus and Aleppo. The ceasefires and the agreement between Turkey and Russia explicitly excluded the Jihadis. The roads were never reopened for civilian Syrian traffic and several rounds of ceasefires continued to break down. A sustained Russian and Syria air campaign prevented the Jihadis from launching larger attacks. Meanwhile harassment fire from the Jihadis and all out attacks continue to kill civilians and soldiers in Aleppo city and other areas. Turkish observation posts which were meant to monitor the ceasefire are instead providing intelligence and supplies to the 'rebels'. Six days ago, after the Syrian Arab Army liberated the city Maarat al-Numan southeast of Idleb city, we wrote: Southeast Idleb Jan 28 2020



bigger Coming from the east the Syrian army crossed the M5 highway north and south of the city in a pincer movement. The Jihadis who had held the city fled westwards towards Kafranabel and Al Barah on the only roads left to move out. The city itself was taken without a fight. The map above does not yet reflect this latest development.

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The move cuts off a Turkish observation point south of Maarat al Nunman. It is the third such point that is now surrounded by Syrian government forces. Earlier today a convoy of some 30 Turkish vehicles had entered Idleb governorate from Turkey. It is expected to erect a new observation point near Saraqib where the M4 and M5 highway come together. Saraqib will be the next target for the Syrian army campaign. That is indeed what happened. Turkey build up a new heavily armed 'observation point' south of Saraqib with the intent to block further Syrian moves towards the city. Meanwhile the Syrian army moved nearer to Saraqib but also took time to secure its eastern flank. The Turkish President did not appreciate that the Syrian army was making progress against his mercenaries: In remarks to reporters Jan. 29, Erdogan slammed Russia directly for the first time, saying, “Russia unfortunately has not been loyal to the Astana and Sochi agreements. … Either [Russia] stops the bombings in Idlib or our patience is running out and we will do what is necessary from now on.”

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Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected Erdogan’s accusations, insisting that Russia “fully complies with all obligations under the Sochi agreements regarding the Idlib zone.” After securing its right flank, the Syrian army moved along the M5 highway towards Saraqib. But the Turkish 'observation point' was blocking the way along that route. Yesterday the Syrian army did something unexpected. It moved off the M5 towards the northwest to envelop the city. Southeast Idleb Feb 2 2020



bigger The move alarmed Turkey. It does not want the Syrian government to liberate Saraqib and to regain control of the M4 and M5 highways to Aleppo. Turkey suddenly declared the M4 highway a "Turkish military zone" and sent in large convoys with heavy arms to build more 'observation points' around Saraqib. During last night it came to first clashes between Turkish and Syrian outposts. Syrian artillery hit one of the new Turkish 'observation points', killed 8 Turkish soldiers and wounded some 30. Turkish artillery fired back but seem to have missed its targets. This morning Erdogan was livid. To save face he claimed that the Turkish army and airforce had hit back at Syrian troops. The Russians, who controls the airspace over Idleb denied that any Turkish airstrikes had happened: Turkish aircraft did not enter Syrian airspace to carry out airstrikes on the positions of Syrian government forces, the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the Opposing Sides in Syria (part of the Russian Defense Ministry) said in a statement on Monday.

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said earlier at a press conference in Ankara that F-16 fighters from the Turkish Air Force and artillery crews had carried strikes on 40 targets in Idlib in response to an attack on the Turkish positions, which had killed four troops. According to Erdogan, the retaliatory attack killed 30-35 Syrians. However, the Turkish president did not specify if they were military servicemen. Today the Syrian army continued with its enveloping plan. It crossed the M4 Aleppo-Latakia highway west of Saraqib and is currently moving further north to cut the road between Saraqib and Idleb city. Southeast Idleb Feb 3 2020



bigger Should it succeed with blocking both roads the Turkish troops in Saraqib will be cut off from their direct supply lines with Turkey. This map from a Turkish source shows the now endangered 'observation points': Southeast Idleb Feb 3 2020



bigger Turkey continues to bring new weapons and men into Syria: Syrian Observatory reliable sources confirmed that a new Turkish military column entered the Syrian territory via Kafr Lusin crossing on the border with Iskenderun. The sources informed SOHR that the column headed to the south being escorted with an armored vehicles with unidentified persons in. Over yesterday, five Turkish military columns of armored vehicles, personnel carriers and trucks entered Syria via Kafr Lusin crossing heading to Aleppo and Idlib countryside. One of these columns headed to Areha area via M4 highway, while another one stopped in Saraqeb town. Accordingly, the number of trucks and military vehicles that entered the Syrian territory since morning has risen to nearly 320. Meanwhile, the Turkish columns headed to Idlib and Aleppo amid information about the announcement of Aleppo-Latakia highway, known as M4, a military zone by Turkish forces, which is a significant Turkish escalation against the Russians. One wonders if the U.S. has convinced Turkey to act in Idleb even without Russian agreement: US Air Force Gen. Tod Wolters, commander of the US European Command and NATO’s supreme allied commander-Europe, visited Ankara on Jan. 30 for talks that focused on Syria. Sources in Ankara note that Wolters’ talks with Defense Minister Hulusi Akar and Chief of General Staff Yasar Guler covered the west of the Euphrates as much as the east of the Euphrates, where the US military presence is concentrated. It seems clear that the Russian military does not agree with Erdogan's plans and that Russia will act to dissuade him from further mischief. It is now time for another phone call between Putin and Erdogan. The Russian president will remind his Turkish colleague that the Turkish economy is lagging and that there is some serious money at risk: Ragıp Soylu @ragipsoylu - 10:17 UTC · Feb 3, 2020 Turkish reliance on Russia:

• Tourism: 7 million Russians visited Turkey, top of the chart

• Nuclear cooperation: Akkuyu nuclear reactor built by Russians

• Turkish stream pipeline

• Turkish exports reaching to $3 billion

• Turkey imports 40% of its gas from Russia The Syrian operation to liberate the economically important highways to Aleppo will continue. Posted by b on February 3, 2020 at 17:25 UTC | Permalink Comments next page » next page »