A showdown over the future of transit in Scarborough returns next week when council will be asked to revive a light rail plan and abandon a single-stop subway extension championed by Mayor John Tory that would cost at least $3.2 billion, the Star has learned.

A motion headed to the floor of council will propose a return to the original seven-stop LRT to replace the aging Scarborough RT, according to a source with knowledge of the plan.

While the cost of building the LRT is now also said to have increased, proponents say going back to that plan could still free up the majority of funds needed to build a second 17-stop LRT along Eglinton Ave. — adding 24 stops to the map that would serve far more residents.

That choice is expected to dominate a critical debate about a transit network plan costing more than $15 billion, which is today mostly unfunded.

Critics say it comes amid a lack of transparency over the real costs of building transit in Scarborough and with the subway’s costs already expected to rise, there are now more questions than answers on returning to the LRT plan with some key senior officials providing little additional information.

“It’s been frustrating that, while those of us who have wanted to talk about investment in Scarborough and providing more residents with more service, we’ve had to spend far too much time countering spin and misinformation,” said Councillor Josh Matlow, who has repeatedly questioned the rationale for a subway.

“Leadership is about setting the right priorities, being thoughtful with tax dollars and being honest with residents while providing them with the most service possible. That’s what I’m expecting from council.”

Tory has said he was “explicitly” elected to build a subway, that it is an investment that won’t be questioned 25 years from now.

“They will say this was the right thing to do to extend transit into the east part of the city, connect that part of the city up, stimulate jobs and investment there that are not taking place now,” he said recently.

He has said he is still committed to finding funding for the 17-stop LRT as part of a network plan for Scarborough.

“I think the transit plan for Scarborough has to be taken as a plan; it’s been presented as such,” Tory told the Star’s editorial board Wednesday. “I am confident I’m going to be right. This is going to be the catalyst to creating something Scarborough badly needs.”

The mayor’s office did not provide further comment Thursday night, including on the coming motion.

Though the mayor has claimed the “people have spoken” on a subway for Scarborough, the pending decision at council comes at a time when the public does not appear to agree with that plan.

A poll from Forum Research last month found that when Toronto residents were asked whether the one-stop subway or a more affordable seven-stop LRT is best for Scarborough, more of them chose the LRT. In Scarborough, opinion is almost evenly split.

At city hall, the cost of the subway appears already to be underestimated.

In recent weeks, the cost for the subway ballooned to $3.2 billion, after initial technical work revealed complications with tunnelling.

But that cost is expected to increase because it is based on a schedule no longer achievable, according to the most recent report from city staff. The report explains the subway could be completed by 2025, but that’s dependent on council approving an alignment for the subway next week.

Council has not been asked to approve an alignment next week. They are being asked to approve further study of possible alignments now that the costs have risen.

Asked what that uncertainty means for the schedule and cost of the subway, the TTC’s CEO Andy Byford told the Star in an email: “The estimate for completion will be dependent on when council approval is received.”

How long that approval will take is unclear, but pushing back the schedule by any length will likely mean an increase in cost, both to further extend the life of the SRT and accounting for inflation.

Also at issue is the current cost estimate for the seven-stop LRT, which the TTC now says has increased as a result of possible construction delays.

The TTC wouldn’t be responsible for building the LRT but has been recently answering questions at city hall about its construction, including in a briefing note circulated to councillors and the TTC board this week that was obtained by the Star.

The province’s transit arm, Metrolinx, which would oversee construction, has said little on the issue, refusing to comment on any of the TTC’s statements.

“Metrolinx has done no further work on the (Scarborough LRT) project, including revisiting any project scope or cost estimates,” said spokesperson Anne Marie Aikins.

Byford told the Star since the TTC, unlike the province’s Metrolinx, is obligated to answer council questions on the floor of committee and council meetings, because they are city staff, he has been the one speaking to the LRT plan.

At Tory’s executive committee last week, Byford said the new estimated cost for the LRT plan has risen to between $2.7 and $3 billion — a figure subway advocates have used as a sign the LRT plan is as good as dead.

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But the province originally agreed to pay the full $1.8-billion cost of the LRT, a number that was represented in 2010 dollars. A 2013 staff report notes those funds, inflated to when construction would have been underway, is actually $2.45 billion. After changes were made to plans at Kennedy Station, the province’s commitment changed to $1.48 billion in 2010 dollars.

Byford has now said the city would likely owe the difference related to council’s own delays due to changing plans.

In its briefing note to councillors, the TTC says construction of the Scarborough LRT could not be completed until 2026. It says that’s because construction of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT at Kennedy Station would need to be completed in 2021 before construction could begin on the Scarborough LRT.

But without confirmation from Metrolinx, it’s unclear whether the construction delays assumed by the TTC, and the added costs that come with them, would actually be necessary.

The two LRT lines were originally planned to be finished in 2020, according to the master agreement with the province.

When the Scarborough LRT plan was scrapped by council in 2013, it was removed from the design plans for Kennedy Station. The station would need to be redesigned in order to again accommodate the second LRT connection.

Asked if construction for the Scarborough LRT could begin at the other end — at Sheppard Ave. — to prevent delays and not interfere with Crosstown construction, Byford told the Star that was “logical” but stressed an explanation would need to come from Metrolinx. Metrolinx did not provide a response.

The TTC note said it would likely take 12 to 18 months to get council and provincial approval of a revised LRT plan.

Tory and other subway backers have rarely acknowledged that many of the issues related to building the LRT would be covered by the province under the master agreement, including the cost to decommission the existing SRT, a maintenance facility and the cost to run temporary bus service during construction.

Under the master agreement, future maintenance costs for the LRT would also have been funded by the province. Responsibility for operating expenses had not been finalized under a cost-sharing agreement.

The subway plan makes the city alone responsible for $18 billion in future operating and maintenance expenses over 60 years, according to a TTC estimate.

Despite their support of a subway, both the provincial and federal governments have confirmed to the Star that their funding commitments are unchanged and the decision of what to build is up to council.

Councillor Josh Colle, who was appointed by Tory as chair of the TTC, maintains there is a “compelling case” to extend the Bloor-Danforth line to the Scarborough Town Centre. But he said neither option should be built at any cost.

“As new information comes to light on either one of them, based on where you stand, you dismiss it if it doesn’t fit with your kind of stance or narrative,” he said of the current debate. “I think what people want desperately . . . is for us to make a decision.”

Councillor Paul Ainslie, the only Scarborough representative to oppose the subway plan, said for him the choice is clear. The numbers, he said, still show a network of LRTs would serve more residents for less.

“You can’t spin it any other way.”

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