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The first Wales-only opinion poll since the General Election was called shows Labour just 1% ahead of the Conservatives – but poised to lose 10 of its 28 seats.

YouGov’s poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University sees Labour on 29% (+4 since the last poll in mid-October); Conservatives 28% (-1); Brexit Party 15 (+1); Liberal Democrats 12% (-4); Plaid Cymru 12% (no change); Greens 3% (-1) and Others 1% (no change).

On a uniform swing since the last election in 2017, this would see Labour losing nine seats to the Conservatives (Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Delyn, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham) and Ynys Môn to Plaid Cymru.

The Liberal Democrats would lose Brecon & Radnorshire, their recent by-election gain, back to the Conservatives, but regain Ceredigion from Plaid Cymru.

How the parties did in the poll - figures show projected vote share

Professor Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University said: “[The poll’s] results suggest that, at this early stage of the campaign, Wales is currently on course for a fundamental transformation in its political landscape.

“For the last century Labour have been the dominant electoral force in Welsh politics: winning the most votes and seats at every one of the last 26 general elections.

"At present, it looks very much in the balance whether or not that run will continue, at least with regards to votes, with the Conservatives’ estimated support level for them general election currently running well within the ‘margin of error’ of that we estimate for the Labour party.”

How that translates into seats in Wales

Prof Awan-Scully said there continued to be five significant parties.

Despite their standing having slipped in some of the recent Britain-wide polls, the Brexit Party’s support appears impressively robust, and they are actually in third place in Wales.

He said: “As can be seen, at present the Conservatives are on course to challenge Labour very closely not only in terms of vote-share but

also in parliamentary seats.

“Any such result in Wales would represent an electoral earthquake: it would be the first time post-war that Labour had not won an absolute

majority of Welsh seats in a general election.

“It would also see Wales making a major contribution to delivering a parliamentary majority for Boris Johnson.

“One of the main reasons why the Conservatives are challenging Labour so strongly in Wales is likely to be the current standing of their respective leaders. On our standard question where we ask respondents to rate each of the leaders on a 0-10 scale, Boris Johnson averages some way ahead of Jeremy Corbyn.

“And when we ask people directly which one of the two would make the best Prime Minister, Johnson is the choice of 41% of our sample, compared to only 26% for the Leader of the Opposition (with the remaining 32% either being unsure or refusing to answer).

“Another factor that may be helping the Conservatives is that not too many people currently seem to blame the Prime Minister and his government for the UK not yet having left the European Union.

“When we asked our sample who they held most responsible for this, by far the largest portion – some 46% – blamed ‘MPs on all sides’, compared with only 20% who blamed ‘Boris Johnson and the Conservative Government’, not many more than the 14% who mainly blamed ‘Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party’.”

Prof Awan-Scully said there were three reasons to exercise caution: there is a long way to go in the campaign until December 12; it is not easy to predict how results will play out in particular constituencies; and that many of the seats projected to change hands do so by very small margins.

He said: “Just a slight change in vote shares – the Labour advantage over the Conservatives increasing by a few percentage points – could actually generate very different projected outcomes in many seats. At this stage early in the 2019 general election, it is definitely still a case of ‘all to play for’.”

* The poll, for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, had a sample of 1,136 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov from October 31 to November 4 2019.