The preliminary estimates are based on the formula suggested by the Tendulkar Committee

The latest data of the Planning Commission indicates that poverty has declined to 32 per cent in 2009-10 from 37.2 per cent five years ago.

The preliminary estimates are based on the formula suggested by the Tendulkar Committee for computing the number of poor.

Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia on Wednesday told reporters that the 2009-10 data shows a decline in poverty from 37.2 per cent in 2004-05 to 32 per cent in 2009-10 as the per the preliminary data worked out by the Planning Commission member Abhijit Sen.

The Tendulkar Committee had suggested that poverty be estimated on the basis of consumption based on the cost of living index instead of caloric intake. It said that the basket of goods should also include services such as health and education. The new poverty line, as suggested by the Tendulkar Committee, is different for rich and poor States, and for rural and urban areas within a State. “These are preliminary data. Mr. Sen has worked on them. He has reported that the 2009-10 data shows a decline in poverty from 37.2 per cent in 2004 to 32 per cent in 2009. I agree with him,” Dr. Ahluwalia said.

He said the National Sample Survey, which conducts large sample surveys every five years, will launch its next round in 2011-12. Estimates of poverty are important because the cheap grains under the proposed Food Security law will be provided based on these numbers.

Dr. Ahluwalia also raised doubts over the feasibility of achieving 10 per cent average economic expansion in the 12th Plan (2012-17), and said the next plan would target GDP growth of 9 to 9.5 per cent in the next five years. “If you ask me personally, I think setting the target of 10 per cent GDP growth as an average for [the] 12th Plan is not feasible. It would be somewhere between 9 and 9.5 in the next Plan period,” he said.

‘Full of uncertainty'

“Our assessment is that the international situation is full of uncertainty. I feel that if we are looking at a five-year period (2012-17), we can do much better than we did in the 11th Plan. I don't think that there should be much difficulty setting a target of 9 per cent,” he said.

A major area of focus would be on increasing agricultural productivity. “In the 10th Plan, agricultural growth was around 2 per cent; in the 11th Plan, it looks as if it will be 3 per cent. It won't be 4 per cent that we had targeted. My view would be that in the 12th Plan we must make sure that we can get to 4 per cent,” Dr. Ahluwalia said.