Who: Dolphins (1-0) at Jets (1-0)

When: September 16, 1:00 East

Where: MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ

Weather: 81 degrees, 69% humidity, 7 MPH wind

Vegas Slant: Jets -3

Jets Off-Season Changes

In-depth look at the Dolphins ground-game plan against the Jets

Dolphins at Jets

In most cases it’s difficult to match a football fan’s week-one jubilation. After all, the return of football can ignite a flame in the fan of even the worst team in the league. Just ask a Bills fan; do you think they’re excited for the next four months?

For the Dolphins and Jets, a pair of underdog victories revs this throwback rivalry up to 9000 RPMs – even if it’s just for one week.

The Jets are coming off the most impressive week-one showing in sometime – maybe in the franchise’s history. MetLife Stadium is going to be raucous as they welcome in the next chosen golden boy.

Outlasting the Titans in a Miami Marathon, the Dolphins have bucked expectations in their own right. Whichever team emerges from this game victorious is going to earn a Monday morning headline. Two afterthoughts battling for the right to remain unbeaten heading into the third tilt of the NFL season, this game serves as something of a narrative shifter.

The Jets’ Scheme:

Defense:

Todd Bowles is known for devising aggressive defensive schemes that vary pressure looks up front. Typically, the Jets will deploy an odd-front that is almost inordinately blitz-heavy. However, the Jets threw a curveball at Matthew Stafford in the Monday night shakedown in Mo-Town.

Often rushing three and dropping eight, the Jets robbed Stafford (jumping out of a particular zone assignment and into the passing lanes – typically in the hook zone) and “got” him to the tune of four interceptions.

I have to think Bowles will go back to hair-on-fire plan facing Ryan Tannehill and this Dolphins offense. It’ll be imperative for Tannehill to get his communication signals out to the rest of the offense early in the play-clock to force the Jets defense to show where the overload pressure is coming from.

Whatever Tannehill sees pre-snap is likely to be entirely different than what the Jets will show post-snap. Perhaps the best way to mitigate this attack is a heavy dose of the run-game and passes to the backs.

Offense:

Make no mistake about it, the Jets want to run the football, no matter how well the rookie passer plays. Jeremy Bates’ unit features west-coast principles with an emphasis on the zone-blocking scheme.

Monday’s game plan was tight-end-centric. Operating primarily in 12 and 13-personnel, New York had three tight ends play at least 29 snaps. The fourth tight end, Jordan Leggett, had 15 reps as well.

Bates will try to make things simple for Sam Darnold by running on early downs and creating third and manageable situations. The Jets utilized play-pass the same number of times Miami did in week-one (11) and only four offenses ran play action more.

Creating two-way goes and isolation routes for slot-receiver Quincy Enunwa is the security blanket for the young quarterback.

The Players:

Defense:

Jamal Adams is an absolute problem and his presence will be accounted for on every snap. He plays in the box, in two-deep and even man-up in the slot – he’s the linchpin of that impressive defense. In the same manner as Reshad Jones, he can shut down the strong-side C-gap in the running game and make the Dolphins outside zone obsolete.

The secondary as a whole is relatively loaded. Trumaine Johnson is a second-tier shutdown corner and Mo Claiborne has had a career revival in New York. They will have to stick to the shifty Dolphins wide outs all game as the Jets look to blitz, blitz, and blitz some more.

Backup safety (filling in for Marcus Maye) Doug Middleton could be the rabbit the Dolphins hunt in their game plan.

Leonard Williams is the next man to key. He’s a devastating player in both aspects of the game. Miami would be wise to jump the back in front of the quarterback and protect the interior pressure Williams is likely to create.

Off the edge, there isn’t a lot to write home about. Brandon Copeland and Henry Anderson had nice opening-day showings, but they run into a superior group of linemen that can erase them right out of the game.

The odd front means outside-backers will come down and blitz off the edge. The issue for New York is the lack of a pass rusher that can win one-on-ones. Undrafted free-agent Frankie Luvu played half the snaps on Monday as the primary edge-rusher alongside Jordan Jenkins.

If Miami can’t handle those two, they have far greater problems than just beating the Jets.

Avery Williamson is a trusted, cerebral middle linebacker that conducts Bowles defense. Fellow inside-backer, Darron Lee, had the game of his life on Monday night. Still, Miami should go directly at him in the passing game.

Lastly, the player Miami will most definitely attack all game is slot corner Buster Skrine. There isn’t a player in this Dolphins wide receiver group that can’t beat him consistently. Last year it was Kenny Stills (to the tune of a pair of scores and more than 130 yards).

Offense:

It starts with the backs in Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell. Fortunately for Miami, the Jets off-tackle outside-zone will have problems stretching the wide-9 alignment of the Dolphins defense. The key will be the bend (cut-back lane) and how well the Jets climb to the second level to erase Kiko Alonso and Raekwon McMillan.

That’s where James Carpenter, Spencer Long and Brian Winters become so crucial. The interior of the Jets line against these Miami linebackers will dictate the pace of the game. If they can latch on and create positive running yardage, stay on the field, and prevent Miami from running upwards of 70 offensive plays, the Jets will win.

Darnold’s arsenal of pass catchers is reliable, yet unremarkable. Robbie Anderson is capable of getting deep on any defense and Enunwa looks to be back to his 2016 form when he carved up secondary’s after the catch.

The Dolphins corners are better than the Jets receivers – especially at those two spots. Minkah Fitzpatrick and Xavien Howard will put up far more resistance than the Lions did.

Then there’s the quarterback. Darnold is a menace to get to the ground, but he is extremely loose with the football. If Miami can rattle Darnold, he’ll give them turnover opportunities and Miami must take advantage.

He’s advanced mentally for a rookie. He processes and very little bothers him. He will struggle with his accuracy at times due to inconsistent mechanics. Expect Miami to send a lot of pressure his way and attempt to lock down the Jets receivers with its talented secondary.

The Medical:

The Concerns:

Defensively, Jamal Adams and Leonard Williams’ ability to wreck a game is the primary concern. If Miami can have success in the run-game, and utilize plenty of dummy action (jet-sweep, split-zone to complement inside/outside-zone) that could neutralize Adams. Otherwise, he’s free to roam around and cause problems for the Dolphins rhythm passing attack.

By whatever means necessary, the Dolphins have to get Williams blocked. He’s the only front-seven defender capable of taking this game over.

Miami needs these three things to go in their favor:

1.) Cameron Wake beats up on Brandon Shell – He’s done it plenty of times before (3.5 sacks in the two contests last year). Pushing Darnold off of his spot and shutting down his escape routes are synonymous with a Dolphins win.

2.) Stretching the Jets defense vertically – We saw what Miami’s speed can do to a defense in the Tennessee game. The ball will come out hot for much of this game to counteract the Jets’ blitz packages. Getting behind the defense will force the Jets to reconsider the entire game plan.

3.) No special teams’ gaffes – Normally a staple of Dolphins teams, Darren Rizzi consistently has his boys coached up. That wasn’t the case against the Titans. Miami needs to A.) Make every field goal and PAT, B.) Prevent big returns, and C.) Flip the field in the punting game. In what figures to be a close game, special teams will likely sway the outcome.

The Opportunities:

Miami’s 21-personnel package, along with Albert Wilson in formation, puts three players on the field that can impact the game by catching the football out of the backfield. Displacing the middle of the field with drive concepts, and sneaking backs in on choice routes or arrow routes can result in some big plays.

Expect Kenyan Drake to get plenty of targets as a pass catcher.

The Projected Result:

Bringing it full circle, it’ll be interesting to see how this Jets team responds to its impressive showing Monday. Overconfidence can either lead to let-down or inspire hope even further. The Dolphins need to start fast, take the crowd out of the game and dictate the pace.

If Miami plays the game on their terms, they’ll win – if not, they won’t.

Dolphins 20

Jets 19

@WingfieldNFL