The Heisman Memorial Trophy is awarded every December to the most outstanding player in college football (this means that it’s not necessarily given to the best player in college football, as we have seen happen plenty of times). Its origin dates back to 1935, when it was first awarded to the most outstanding player in the East, Jay Berwanger of Chicago. The Heisman has had it’s share of memorable moments and unpredictable races, that no expert, no matter how tenured and knowledgeable they are, can see coming until about week ten in the season.

So naturally, since it’s February, I wanted to take a look at the 2016 Way-Way-Waaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyy-Too Early Heisman Race.

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If you were to look up the current odds on who will win the Heisman, it looks a little something like this:

Deshaun Watson (QB, Clemson) +400

Christian McCaffrey (RB, Stanford) +500

Leonard Fournette (RB, LSU) +500

Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma) +1000

JT Barrett (QB, Ohio State) +1000

Chad Kelly +1200

Dalvin Cook (RB, FSU) +1200

Nick Chubb (RB, Georgia) +1400

Royce Freeman (RB, Oregon) +1400

Samaje Perine (RB, Oklahoma) +1600

Calvin Ridley (WR, Alabama) +1600

Joshua Dobbs (QB, Tenn) +1600

Josh Rosen (QB, UCLA) +2000

Brad Kaaya (QB, Miami) +3300

First off, if you don’t understand money lines, you might want to read this.

What these odds — courtesy of Bovada — tell us, is that Deshaun Watson has the best odds. This is true for a variety of reasons. One, being that he was a finalist in 2015, ultimately coming in third by accumulating 667 total points less than the winner, Alabama RB Derrick Henry and runner-up Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey. Vegas loves returning finalists.

Two, he played in the National Championship last year. This is a huge factor because most finalists who make it to the championship and return tend to be favored; however, Watson’s chances are even better because Clemson is returning about 90% of their offense — a lot of whom were underclassmen — who scored 40 points on an amazing Alabama defense last year in the National Championship game.

The third factor, of which Deshaun is also favored, probably hinges on the fact that he was responsible for a majority of Clemson’s scoring, as well as how incredibly impressive he looked in the College Football Playoffs, as well as incredibly poised under pressure (just watch Clemson’s last drive to cover the spread). It was a thing of beauty. So he may have finished third, but his post-season play assured him a spot as one of the potentially best — or most outstanding — players for 2016.

After him of course, is Christian McCaffrey. In 2015, Christian finished 293 points behind Henry (again, a relatively small margin), continuing Stanford’s current streak of being a bridesmaid and never a bride. Many accredit this to him playing on the West Coast, meaning he plays games later at night, which most voters — given their age — might not watch (I personally dismiss this notion because it’s irresponsible for any voters not to at least watch tape of a kid who is getting hype in a day and age where technology makes seeing even the lowest DIII player easy). I believe the main reason he is behind Watson though are for the Watson’s reasons I stated above.

It’s very hard not to love this kid, for what he was able to accomplish as a sophomore. He surpassed Barry Sanders’ irrational All-Purpose Yards record and lead Stanford to a Rose Bowl where, McCaffrey personally, proved You might need more than 11 people to even touch him. That Rose Bowl was a statement to all voters saying, “You see how good I am now? Come next season, you better watch me.”

Third, and finally (finally because only the top three finalists are invited to the presentation) is Leonard Fournette. There are really only two reasons Fournette is third. One, being McCaffrey and Watson both had incredibly fruitful, explosive, and astounding late and post-seasons — both making New Year’s Six Bowls and Watson making the Championship. Two is that LSU, despite being in the Top Ten for seven consecutive weeks, and climbing as high as #4 before Bama did Bama things, didn’t finish out.

Fournette was the front-runner most of the season. Then “Zombie Alabama” came back from the “dead,” crushed LSU’s offense, and sent LSU into a little bit of a late season spiral. This game was also when everybody’s view switched from Fournette to Derrick Henry. However, LSU is returning 96% of their offense, as well 88% of their defense (92% of their 2015 team) giving them high expectations to do incredibly well this season. That is a major factor for a player expected to win the Heisman (as is for Watson).

The odds behind these candidates are justifiable. Even the other nine behind them are all incredible candidates. But what we have seen in the past (especially 2015), is how these way-too-early-predictions can prove their titles right, even if it is right before the season starts.

Seeing how this is a Penn State blog, I would like to throw one more name into the ring, a dark horse if you will: Saquon Barkley. I personally believe that Saquon has just a good of chance as any of these other players because it’s February and because after all, it is college football, and anything can happen.

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To first understand how Saquon might fit into the equation, we have to first look at Penn State’s history with the Heisman.

***Penn State Heisman Finishes***

In its eighty year history, Penn State has had 17 top ten finishers. Eleven of those have finished in the top five, while three of them have finished in second place. And of course, we have one winner in John Cappelletti. Cap helped lead the 1973 team to an undefeated season while amassing 286 attempts for 1,522 yards (5.3 avg) and 17 touchdowns. Number 22’s story is one of the greatest and most emotional in college football, and his four touchdown game for his brother arguably capped off the reason why he deserved the Heisman.

Before him, our first brush with the Heisman was with Richie Lucas in 1959. The quarterback who led Penn State to a 7-0 win in the Liberty Bowl against Alabama lost in a landslide to LSU’s Billy Cannon. When you look at his stats, it’s hard to imagine why he was even nominated. However, this was back when the Wing T, the option, and running, all dominated the game, so his 325 yards and six touchdowns probably factored into all of that.

The next flirtation with Mr. Heisman came in 1978 under the helm of Quarterback Chuck Fusina. Fusina was on the heel of a 19-game win streak and helped lead the Nittany Lions to one of the most iconic National Championship games in college football history, in which they ultimately lost. Because of Fusina’s efforts to keep Penn State alive as well as leading them to the Sugar Bowl, he lost only by 77 votes to the famed Sooner, Billy Sims.

The last Stater to have a second place finish was Ki-Jana Carter in 1994. Carter, along with Kerry Collins who finished 4th that year, led the nation in rushing average along with leading the Nittany Lions to an undefeated season, a Big Ten Championship in it’s second season in the conference, and a Rose Bowl. Unfortunately, this was a year in which Colorado had a prolific collegiate running back in Rashaan Salaam — a junior who became the sixth man in NCAA history to rush for over 2,000 yards (NCAA began keeping records in 1937) — who led the nation in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and helped lead the Buffs to an 11-1 record and a dominating performance of Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl afterwards.

Other Penn State notables who have finished towards the top include: Larry Johnson, who led the nation in rush yards, tied for first in average, and was the ninth player in NCAA history to eclipse 2,000 yards; Lydell Mitchell, who at the time scored the second most rushing touchdowns in a single season, only to be surpassed that same year by Larry Metcalf of Long Beach State; John Hufnagel; D.J. Dozier; Todd Blackledge; Curt Warner; Lavar Arrington; and Michael Robinson, who was the last Penn State player to finish in the top ten Heisman voting at fifth place in 2005 — and understandably so.

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Since then Penn State hasn’t had too much to offer to the New York Athletic Club. This past year people tried to make an argument for Carl Nassib, and understandably so. Carl led the nation in sacks, a very difficult thing to do, as well as tackles for loss for most of the year. Save for him rarely playing any snaps in the last two games of the season due to injury, his stats fell a little. Realistically though, he did not have a chance.

There have been Defensive Heisman winners. In its 80 year history, only three defensive players have won the Heisman: Larry Kelley of Yale in 1936, a D End; Notre Dame’s Leon Hart in 1949, another D End; and Charles Woodson in 1997, the famed Michigan Cornerback who got love mainly for his punt returns (like his earlier-in-the-decade counter part). Recently, Only Manti Te’o finished second in voting to Manziel, and that was largely due to Notre Dame’s over-hype as well as his touching “story.” Penn State itself has had two defensive players finish in the top ten: defensive linemen Mike Reid in 1969 who finished 5th and Lavar Arrington in 1997 who finished 9th.

Even if Carl was able to set the single season sack record, he would have been lucky to crack the top ten given the field of offensive talent this past year, and his story of being a first year starter and walk-on would probably have helped. But that would’ve been terribly hard to do seeing as how he would have need 4.5 sacks to tie or five to break it in his last two games — the last two games being against Michigan and Michigan State. Hell, even Elvis Dumervil who holds the single season sack record of 20, barely made the top ten in 2005, and understandably so given that year. Who knows why this is the case, maybe it’s because defensive numbers aren’t as big and exciting as offensive numbers. Whatever the case, Heisman voters clearly do not favor true defensive types.

But they do favor running backs.

Over the past 20 years, only six running backs have won the Heisman: Eddie George, Ricky Williams, Ron Dayne, Reggie Bush (even though Bush’s win was vacated, we all knew he won), Mark Ingram, and Derrick Henry. However, running backs have won 42 times in total. It may seem that their value in the game has gone down in years as compared to QBs, but if implemented correctly, they can be the tour-de-force of an offense.

This past year, what we saw in Henry and McCaffrey was immaculate, and Saquon could be right on their tails. Barkley, as a true freshman, ran for over 1,000 yards, the only true freshman to do so. He surpassed Penn State great D.J. Dozier’s freshman record in his wake, and this was all done in ten games, being that he was hurt for two and really you can’t count the Temple game because the coaching staff was too into the idea of starting Lynch and keeping Hack in way past his time. He had the highest average of all the freshman in the nation (over 100 yards per game) and his strength is other worldly. He rushed for over 100 yards against Michigan State and almost 200 against Ohio State. All in all he finished his true freshman season with 1,076 yards, 7 touchdowns, 5.9 yards per rush average, as well as having 20 receptions for 161 yards and one touchdown. And all of this behind a statistically abysmal offensive line.

So, given that the field is very, very strong this year, what would he have to do to standout among the ranks?

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***RB Heisman Winners***

*Note: Some players are listed as having multiple positions. If, at the time of winning, they were listed at both they were included (i.e. Tom Harmon and Johnny Rodgers). Many offenses were set up in Wing T to run the triple option, giving several QBs the HB look.

**Note: stats as of 2002 were updated to include bowl games. Conferences are updated to include current names of conferences.

If we were to break down all the Heisman-winning running backs by their team’s seasons it would look something like this:

12 helped lead their teams to Undefeated Seasons.

19 won Conference Championships.

23 played in what are now called New Year’s Six Bowls, including one BCS Championship and one Playoff Championship.

9 played in National Championships.

5 were National Champions.

5 more played in National Championships. O.J. Simpson, Earl Campbell, Herschel Walker, Mike Rozier, and Reggie Bush were all on the verge of an Undefeated Season before losing in the National Championship game.

Now let’s look at the winners from a statistical perspective:

6 led the nation in Rush Attempts.

10 led the nation in Rush Yards.

1 led the nation in Rushing Average.

11 led the nation in Rushing Touchdowns.

9 led in multiple categories during their year.

O.J. Simpson, Charles White, Marcus Allen, and Ricky Williams led a category for a second consecutive year. O.J. Simpson, Charles White, and Ricky Williams led in two categories for the second year in a row.

8 players rushed for over 2,000 yards in a season. Henry rushed for over 2,000 after he won the Heisman.

4 players set NCAA single season records in their respective years.

Setting a record, leading a category, making a championship or major bowl clearly help, but strictly statistically speaking, it is not necessary.

Clearly Heisman winners have been championship caliber, but not necessarily all have been champions. Granted, a lot of these winners didn’t play in bowl games because of how unusual bowls were at the time, but it’s not defining. While heading to a championship, undefeated season, or making a major bowl helps, it’s not necessary. Barry Sanders went to the Holiday Bowl, Eddie George went to the Citrus Bowl. George Rodgers’ team finished 8-4 and Steve Owens’ 6-4.

You also don’t need to put up astronomical numbers. Clearly leading a rushing category or breaking a record might help, but obviously it isn’t required. Reggie Bush didn’t lead in touchdowns, his teammate Lendale White did. Tony Dorsett didn’t lead in any of his categories either, and backs like Larry Johnson and Troy Davis, who each ran for over 2,000 yards, did not get a Heisman (Davis actually bested that mark twice).

In fact Archie Griffin, the ONLY two-time winner had comparatively average stats during his run. In ‘74 he rushed 256 times for 1,695 yards (6.6 average) and 12 touchdowns, and in 1975 he rushed six more times for less yards (1,450, 5.5 average) and only four touchdowns. In that 1975 season too, he led the nation in rushing yards.

If you were to take the average rushing stats from running backs since 1965 — which is the blatantly obvious jumping point for the Heisman running back (meaning Johnny Rodgers is DQ’d because he was predominately a receiver), the prototypical Heisman candidate in 2016 would rush for 1,880 yards and 20 touchdowns and either have 309 attempts or a 6.4 average. The average of 6.4 yards per carry on 1,880 yards might be the better stat because it shows that they were able to get more yards out of less attempts; however, the attempts metric could be argued as a better because it shows how much the running back was utilized and relied on for his team, as well as average yards per carry being a by product of rushing attempts.

Save for Billy Sims and Reggie Bush, no winning running back has touched the ball less than 250 times (Sims recorded 231 plays for 1,762 yards — an impressive 7.6 average — and Bush 200 attempts for 1,740 yards for a monstrous 8.7 average). The most attempts by a winner were Marcus Allen’s 433 in 1981, where he went over 2,400 yards but only averaged 5.6 per carry.

Saquon compiled his rushing stats on 182 attempts last year, which puts him well below the expected touches for the prototype candidate, but if we were to use his stat line (182 attempts for 1,076 yards, 5.9 average, and seven touchdowns), and apply it very crudely, we can estimate his final stats were he to get 250 and 309 touches.

Were Saquon to maintain his 5.9 average for 250 touches, he would have amassed another 401 yards (1,477). If he were to get the ideal average of 309 carries at his set pace, he would have gained 1,823 yards.

Barkley managed to get a touchdown once in every 26 carries last season. If he got the extra 68 carries to reach the minimum of 250 he would have scored about three more touchdowns, bringing his total to 10, and about five more for 12 he carried it the extra 127 times to bring the total to 309.

So his stat line may have looked something like this:

250 attempts for 1,477 yards, 5.9 average and 10 touchdowns

309 attempts for 1,823 yards, 5.9 average and 12 touchdowns

Again, these estimates are given that everything stayed the same and of course they may not have. If Sa Sa played in those two games and had more than one carry against Temple, his stats might have been higher than what they ended up being, they also very well could have been lower than expected.

These estimates also put him at below what could be deemed a Heisman worthy season. While Heismans have been won with less, they have usually come on the heels of a championship or undefeated season. Meaning that there is usually a correlation between what statistics are acceptable as compared to how many wins your team achieved.

Yes, the average can be skewed given some insane statistics (Barry Sanders 2,628 yards and 37 touchdowns, Marcus Allen’s 433 rushing attempts) but ideally they would still need to be higher. The two RB favorites this year, McCaffery and Fournette, had lines of 337 for 2,019 (6.0), eight touchdowns, and 300 for 1,953 (6.5), 22 touchdowns respectively after bowls. Ideally, they would be able to build upon those numbers being older, stronger, and having a better sense of the game, but then too should Saquon.

But of course, not every winner puts together an impressive stat line, and it’s incredible that he was just able to do as a true freshman behind a bad line. The offense was also trying to figure out where he best fits in, and now that his importance is obvious, it could pay off given that he grows even more this upcoming year.

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What I’m trying to prove here is that Saquon could do it. The expectations and preconceived notions we put on what a Heisman winner is are not necessarily true.

Saquon has to put up great numbers this year, but not the best.

Penn State has to be a winning team, but they don’t have to win it all.

What all these players have in common though, is that they far exceeded expectations and were prolific, and arguably the most important person on their team. Like Cappelletti was and at this point and time Barkley is. It may be a tough road ahead given how Penn State has played the past two years and the loss of some major players, but it’s not unreasonable. After all, it is college football, and anything can happen.