Blackburn, Bredesen virtually tied in approval ratings in US Senate race, MTSU poll says

One year out from the 2018 Tennessee U.S. Senate race, U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tennessee, and former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen, a potential candidate, have “statistically indistinguishable” approval ratings, a new poll from Middle Tennessee State University has found.

The poll, released Tuesday, found Blackburn is viewed positively by 37 percent of all registered Tennessee voters while Bredesen is viewed positively by 34 percent. Thirty-one percent of respondents said they have negative feelings for Blackburn, while 29 percent had negative feelings for Bredesen.

Blackburn, who has represented Tennessee's 7th congressional district since 2003, is considered a favorite to capture the GOP nomination in the race to replace Republican Sen. Bob Corker, who in September announced plans to retire.

Bredesen, governor of Tennessee from 2003 to 2011 and former Nashville mayor, is expected to make a decision within a few weeks on whether he'll run for U.S. Senate as a Democrat.

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Blackburn with highest approval marks from Republican voters, but Fincher not polled

Among just Republican voters, the poll found that Blackburn is leading the GOP primary with positive approval marks from 55 percent of Republican voters. But the survey has a significant omission: former Rep. Stephen Fincher, R-Tennessee, a rival GOP Senate candidate, was not included in the poll.

The poll found conservative activist Andy Ogles has 19 percent approval from Republican voters and perennial candidate Larry Crim has 12 percent approval from GOP voters.

The survey, a sample of 600 registered Tennessee voters by phone, was conducted between Oct. 16 and Oct. 23. Fincher, who represented Tennessee’s 8th congressional from 2011 to 2017, announced his candidacy on Oct. 22.

The poll — which has a margin or error of plus or minus 4 percentage points — tested only positive and negative attitudes of candidates and potential candidates. It did not ask whom Tennesseans plan to vote for in next year's elections.

The margin of error for the smaller samples of Republican and Democratic voters is larger. The survey included 140 Democrats for a margin of error of plus or minus 8 percentage points, and 211 Republicans for a margin of error of plus or minus 7 percentage points.

Poll has 'serious flaws,' Blackburn campaign says

In a memo for the Blackburn campaign, Republican strategist Ward Baker said there are “serious flaws” in the poll, which suggests Blackburn and Bredesen would begin from similar starting-points in a hypothetical race.

He questioned why the poll didn’t survey a head-to-head matchup between Blackburn and Bredesen or test the performance of a generic Democratic candidate versus a generic Republican candidate.

He also pointed to an MTSU poll during last year's presidential race that found Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by 12 percentage points. Trump ultimately won by 26 percentage points.

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“A lot of times news outlets release polling numbers, solely for 'headline grabbing' as opposed to giving the voters a complete set of data on the current political landscape,” Baker wrote. “Unfortunately, this appears to be the former as this survey does not give any significant insights into the Senate primary or general election.”

In releasing the survey, MTSU poll director Ken Blake said it is "much too early to forecast winners, even in the primaries that presently look lopsided."

“All of these candidates have double-digit percentages of undecided voters, both among voters from their own parties and from across the Tennessee electorate as a whole," Blake said in a statement. "Any of the races easily could shift during the months ahead.”

Among all Tennessee voters, regardless of party affiliation, Blackburn’s 37 percent approval topped Republican opponents Ogles, 14 percent, and Crim, 7 percent.

With party primaries not until August, no candidates have aired ads on television to this point, meaning polling right now is largely a reflection of built-in name recognition of candidates.

Bredesen with far higher approval rating than Berke, Mackler among Democrats

On the Democratic side, the poll found 60 percent of likely Democratic primary voters either approve or strongly approve of Bredesen, who has not held public office in more than six years.

Chattanooga Mayor Andy Berke, who is considering a run, has the approval of 32 percent of self-described Democrats, the poll found.

James Mackler, a Nashville attorney and former Iraq War veteran — and the lone Democrat to announce a candidacy so far — has approval from 28 percent of self-identified Democrats, according to the poll.

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Among all Tennessee voters, regardless of party affiliation, Bredesen’s 34 percent approval topped the other two Democrats. Berke’s approval is 18 percent among all voters, the poll found, while Mackler is 13 percent.

Reach Joey Garrison at 615-259-8236, jgarrison@tennessean.com and on Twitter @joeygarrison