On 4 February, a house fire in Astana, Kazakhstan’s capital, killed five sisters aged between one and 13. Women campaigning for increased social and financial support for “hero mothers” - as mothers to six or more children are known - pointed to the fire as evidence that the state is failing to help families. Rallies were held on 11 February across Kazakhstan, from Aktobe to Karaganda, from Almaty to Shymkent.

Also in February residents of Zhanaozen, in Mangystau region, protested for work, and protestors in Astana and Almaty were detained during the ruling party Nur Otan congress and at the party office, respectively. In March, after Nursultan Nazarbayev's resignation from the presidency, people in Almaty, Astana and Uralsk were arrested for protesting interim President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's decision to rename the capital Astana into Nur-Sultan, in honour of the outgoing “Leader of the Nation”.

These demonstrations have led at least one analyst to argue that discontent in Kazakhstan is becoming more common. Alternatively, discontent was present before, but has been surfacing more often of late. Regardless, demonstrations in Kazakhstan are significant: protests are rare in a country classified as authoritarian by various measures of regime characterisation.

These protests have spurred reprisals, now as in the past. Changes in the government’s responses to protest - from its violent response against striking oil workers in Zhanaozen in 2011, to the firing of the government in February 2019 following socioeconomic protests - indicate that it has seemingly learned a valuable lesson. In order to maintain stability, the government must appear to hear and respond to the people’s demands.

Since independence, Kazakhstan has legitimised its economic and political trajectory of “democracy through economic growth” or “first economy, then politics” by pointing out its stability compared to other countries. For example, in 2011 former President Nazarbayev pointed out that “the unrest that gripped North Africa and the Middle East was driven by a potent mixture of economics and politics,” adding that “our focus on economic strength and increased prosperity for our citizens is well justified and easily explained. Without such strength, as we have seen repeatedly around the world, stability is put at risk and democratic reform can founder.”

Recent events in Kazakhstan have called Nazarbayev’s narrative of economic strength and stability into question. Interim President Tokayev and his successor after the June elections may or may not be able to rely on a similar rhetorical strategy.