US Election 2020 Forecast. Electoral College Map Oct 8 2017





Oct 8 2017, My Prediction of United States presidential election, 2020



TRUMP: 306(2016) + MN(10) + NH(4) + ME Statewide(2) = 322



DEM: 232(2016) - MN(10) - CO(9) - NV(6) - NH(4) - ME Statewide(2) =201

Swing States: CO(9)+NV(6)= 15

This Map Created with www.Mapchart.net



About the Details

I. TRUMP’s a bit low approval rating isn’t a serious matter.(currently around 40~42% by skewed polls.) perhaps TRUMP has around 45-50% if polls weren’t skewed that much. Especially Those are national Polls(1000-1500ish samples.) which are highly containing samples from CA/NY/IL deep blue state people.



And Democratic party’s favorable rating is similar as TRUMP. about 40%(despite of Dem friendly skewed samples.)



Plus, TRUMP’s approval rating is low because of currently polls are showing only 75% of republicans approve TRUMP. But as Election 2016 Results, on election day at least 90% Republican gonna vote for TRUMP(even some of them don’t like TRUMP). (90-75)X15%=5%. So at this moment there is at least +5% hidden votes for TRUMP







YouGov/Economist Poll Nov 4-7, 2016. 3677 LV



Favorability of TRUMP. Republican 75%(But few days later in Election Day 11/8/2016. TRUMP got nearly 90% support of Republican in most swing states.)



https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf



9/24-9/26 2017. Economist/YouGov 1254 RV. PAGE 134



https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/u056dnqljx/econTabReport.pdf

And Democratic party’s favorable ratings 41%





Samples are skewed. DEM 32.9% | REP 23.3% | IND 43.7%



DEM +9.6% Samples.



Election 2016 Exit Poll it was DEM 37% | REP 33% | IND 30%







Considering current Party affiliation statistics in FL/NC/PA, Which state Democrats-Republican voter gaps are narrowed each 55k/60k/100k voters. Perhaps now DEM 36% | REP 34% | IND 30% (Dem +2%.)







II. TRUMP’s Hispanic Favorable rating is getting better than Nov,2016

Nov,2016: 26% —-> Oct,2017: 35~37%(!)

with this poll numbers, (for TRUMP) to get 40% Hispanic support on Election 2020 is pretty attainable. (Which number is very likely to win his reelction.) if current trends continue, It is possible to play New Mexico/Oregon/Delaware in 2020.







1. YouGov/Economist Poll Nov 4-7, 2016. 314 Hispanic LV (of 3677 LV total) Hispanics: Favorable 26% | Unfavorable 72%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf



(TRUMP got +3% more on Exit Poll 2016. 29% of Hispanics)







2. PPP National Poll 9/22-9/25, 2017



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_92817.pdf



78 Hispanic RV (=865 RV X 9% of samples)

TRUMP Favorable rating (Page 32)

Hispanics: Favorable 35% | Unfavorable 56%





3. Quinnipiac National Poll 9/21-9/26, 2017

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us09272017_Uphy49k.pdf/



about 155 Hispanic RV (=1412 RV X 11%(?) of samples)



Hispanics: Favorable 37% | Unfavorable 57%



Plus, Page 19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling -immigration issues?



Hispanics: Approve 40% | Disapprove 59%





III. Demographic trends (by State)

1. Minnesota

at this moment I think Minnesota is a likely TRUMP state.



Related Post: http://StatesPoll.com/post/166038989900





2. Michigan

Similar reason as Minnesota. Especially TRUMP might get more votes from Rural Area in MI&WI than He did in 2016.



MI is a Likely TRUMP states.



Related Post:http://StatesPoll.com/post/166068369445







3. Ohio&Wisconsin



Similar reason as Minnesota. Especially TRUMP might get more votes from Rural Area in OH&WI than He did in 2016.

1) Election 2016 Results

Ohio: TRUMP 51.69% | Hillary 43.56%

Wisconsin: TRUMP 47.22% | Hillary 46.45%



https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president

Click ‘Change from 2012’. Then You can see most counties in OH/WI swung to Republican Candidate(Trump). Especially Rural Area.



1) Ohio TRUMP carried 80 of 88 counties in Ohio.

(Romney carried only 71 of 88 counties in 2012)



Most counties(85 of 88) in Ohio swung to Republican Nominee(Trump).



2) Wisconsin TRUMP carried 61 of 72 counties in Wisconsin

(Romney carried only 38 of 72 counties in 2012)



Most counties(68 of 72) in Wisconsin swung to Republican Nominee(Trump).



if current trends continue it could be possible only 3 blue counties left in 2020. Dane/Milwaukee. (Menominee would be stay as a blue county also, but it gives just less than 1k vote margins for Dem.)







4. Pennsylvania&North Carolina

1) Election 2016 Results



Pennsylvania: TRUMP 48.18% | Hillary 47.46%

North Carolina: TRUMP 49.84% | Hillary 46.17%



Similar reason as Michigan&Wisconsin.

Plus the gaps(May 2017) between democrats and republicans in NC/PA decreased a lot.



2) Pennsylvania



(1) Trends: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president

Click ‘Change from 2012’. Then You can see most counties(61 of 67) in Pennsylvania swung to Republican Nominee(Trump). Especially Rural&Suburb areas. TRUMP carried 56 of 67 counties in Pennsylvania

(Romney carried 54 of 67 counties in 2012)

if current trends continue, on next election 2020 Dem might barely keep 5 counties in PA(Philly/Delaware/Allegheny/Chester/MontgoMery)





(2) The gaps(September 2017) Between democrats and republicans in PA decreased 90k voters compare with Nov,2016.



Consiering Turnouts(Election 2016; it was 70% in PA) Now TRUMP’s margins in PA +1% bigger than Election 2016.

90k x 70%(Turnouts) / 6.16 Million (2016 Total Votes in PA) = 1.02%



http://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/OtherServicesEvents/VotingElectionStatistics/Documents/2016%20Election%20VR%20Stats.pdf



May, 2017. DEM 4.05Million - REP 3.23 Million= 820k voters

November, 2016. DEM 4.21Million - REP 3.3 Million= 910k voters





3) North Caroilna

The gaps(September 2017) between democrats and republicans in NC decreased 70k voters compare with Nov,2016.

Consiering Turnouts(Election 2016; it was 69% in NC) Now TRUMP’s margins in PA +1% bigger than Election 2016.



70k x 69%(Turnouts) / 4.74 Million (2016 Total Votes in PA) = 1.018%



https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=09%2F30%2F2017

https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=10%2F29%2F2016

September 30th, 2017. DEM 2.64Million - REP 2.06 Million= 580k voters

Oct 29th, 2016. DEM 2.71Million - REP 2.06 Million= 650k voters

at this moment, I think NC&PA are Likely TRUMP states.







5. Florida

Election 2016 Results: TRUMP 49.02% | Hillary 47.82%



Demographics & Polls.



1) Latest Poll

(1) Florida Chamber of Commerce 9/17-24, 2017. 615 Respondents



The sample size included 263 Democrats, 256 Republicans and 96 Others for a total of 615 respondents statewide.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/245619-florida-chamber-poll-rick-scott-leads-bill-nelson-senate-race

a. TRUMP’s approval Rating in FL. Approve 48% / Disapprove 50%

b. Senate 2018 Race: Rick Scott® 47% | Bill Nelson(D) 45%

Considering samples is a bit skewed for DEM (DEM +1.1%)



Election 2016 FL Exit Poll. it was REP 33% DEM 32% IND 34% REP +1%

c. Adjustment %. Approve +1.24%

TRUMP’s approval Raing could be +1.6%

TRUMP’s disapproval Raing culd be -1.64%

Then Approve 49.6% | Dissaprove 48.36%



Scott® 48.6% | Nelson(D) 43.36%. Scott® +5.24%

Considering nowadays Democratic party’s favorable rating number is around 40%, TRUMP’s approval rating nearly 50% means very likely to win FL in 2016.





(2) TRUMP Favorable number of Hispanic is getting much better than Nov,2016.

Nov,2016 27% -> October,2017 35~37%ish(as PPP,Quinnipiac September Polls.)

Considering Hispanics in FL are more friendly to Republican than other states.

which is enough numbers to keep it as Red State.

at this moment, I think Florida is a lean TRUMP state.

2) the gaps(september/2017) between democrats and republicans in FL decreased 54k voters compare with Nov,2016.

http://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-monthly-reports/voter-registration-annual-by-party-affiliation/

August 31, 2017. DEM 4.823 Million - REP 4,547 Million= 276k voters

2016. DEM 4.905 Million - REP 4.575 Million= 330k voters.





6. Maine

Election 2016 Results: Hillary 47.8% | TRUMP 44.9%



TRUMP carried 9 of 16 counties in Maine.

(Romney carried only 1 of 16 counties in 2012)



1) Trends: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president

Click ‘Change from 2012’. Then You can see all counties in ME swung to Republican Candidate(Trump).

The gap was 22k votes(2.9%) in 2016.

if current trends continue in 2020

(1) Except Cumberland and Knox county TRUMP might flip every blue counties in Maine.

(2) TRUMP might increase his votes in Red counties in Maine

(3) Jill Stein might increase +2% in 2020(mostly from Democratic party’s votes)

at this moment, I think Maine is a lean TRUMP state.





7. New Hampshire(Similar as Maine)

Election 2016 Results: Hillary 46.98% | TRUMP 46.61%



TRUMP carried 6 of 10 counties in New Hampshire. (Romney carried only 3 of 10 counties in 2012)

1) Trends: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president

Click 'Change from 2012’.

You can see all counties in NH swung to Republican Candidate(Trump).



2) Jill Stein might increase +2% in 2020(mostly from Democratic party’s votes)



if current trends continue in 2020, TRUMP might flip NH easily.(2016 margins was only Hillary +0.27% in NH.)

at this moment, I think New Hampshire is a lean TRUMP state.