Tropical Cyclone Penny is closing in on Cape York Peninsula and expected to cross the Queensland coast late afternoon on New Year’s Day.

The Bureau of Meteorology says the category 1 system formed in the eastern part of the Gulf of Carpentaria by 7am. Penny was 45km west of Weipa and 75km north-northwest of Aurukun, moving east at 11km/h at 2pm local time.

“Penny is expected to move east towards Cape York Peninsula and cross the coast near Weipa this afternoon as a category 1 system,” a BoM spokesman said.

“At the moment we are forecasting it to be a Category 1 and it is expected to move over land by 4pm to 6pm today and make its way over the peninsula.”

However, the cyclone may reach category 2 if it moves slower than expected and spends more time over water.

Wind gusts up to 120km/h have been recorded on the western Cape York Peninsula coast between Cape York and Aurukun.

Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding across the cape and parts of the North Tropical Coast late Tuesday and Wednesday. A flood watch alert remains for coastal catchments north of Cardwell, including across Cape York Peninsula.

Residents have been warned to expect a higher storm tide between Cape York and Cape Keerweer with possible flooding along the foreshore. Cyclone Penny is expected to weaken to a tropical low as it crosses land and moves out to the Coral Sea.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services’ far northern region assistant commissioner, John Bolger, said it was important locals followed the directions of authorities and either shelter in place until the cyclone passed or relocate if asked.

“Those who remain in place should shelter in the strongest part of the house and ensure their emergency kit is close by,” he said.

Bolger said the intense rainfall could result in flash flooding of creeks, drains and causeways. “Under no circumstance should people enter flooded creeks or causeways by road or on foot. If you come across rising floodwaters, turn around and seek an alternative route.”

Rivers and creeks are already swollen after heavy rain soaked the region over Christmas, with parts of the far north receiving more than 400mm in the past week.

A 34-year-old woman remains missing after she disappeared in a fast-flowing creek near Cooktown on Thursday. The body of a 28-year-old man was found on Monday morning, several kilometres downstream from where he entered a flooded canal close to Cairns city on Saturday.