SUMMARY

Essendon's flickering finals chances go on the line against Gold Coast on Saturday night. The Bombers have won five of their past seven matches to be one of the AFL's form teams, but last Sunday's narrow defeat at the hands of Collingwood has seriously jeopardised their finals push. Two games and significant percentage adrift of eighth-placed Hawthorn, John Worsfold's men are walking a tightrope and have no wriggle room – they simply must win, and recent form suggests they should have no worries. Former Sun Adam Saad is in blistering touch ahead of his homecoming, while fellow off-season recruit Devon Smith has been at the forefront of Essendon's mid-season revival, along with the now sidelined Jake Stringer. Gold Coast is in a mighty slump, having lost 10 straight games despite being competitive for good chunks of its past two losses against the Magpies and Kangaroos. With no Tom Lynch in the forward line, the Suns are struggling to kick goals and Essendon should have too much pace and too much class in this one.

WHERE AND WHEN: Metricon Stadium, Saturday, July 14, 7.25pm AEST

TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide

LAST FIVE MEETINGS

R22, 2017, Essendon 12.18 (90) d Gold Coast 9.3 (57) at Metricon Stadium

R21, 2016, Essendon 11.9 (75) d Gold Coast 9.15 (69) at Etihad Stadium

R1, 2016, Gold Coast 17.19 (121) d Essendon 9.6 (60) at Metricon Stadium

R21, 2015, Gold Coast 14.13 (97) d Essendon 14.11 (95) at Metricon Stadium

R22, 2014, Essendon 16.12 (108) d Gold Coast 13.11 (89) at Etihad Stadium

THE SIX POINTS

1. The Bombers should have won by a lot more when the teams last played. They won the disposal count 418-346, marks 127-95, scoring shots 31-12 and had 41 more inside 50s. David Zaharakis was best on ground with 38 touches.

2. The Suns are the lowest scoring team this season, averaging 60 points a game. In their 10 straight losses since round six that average has dropped to 55 points.

3. Gold Coast and Essendon clash for the ninth time and the Bombers hold a 6-2 advantage. However, the ledger is square at two apiece at Metricon Stadium.

4. The Bombers haven't been a favourite of the umpires this season, ranked last for free kicks with 18.3 a game. In the past three weeks they're a combined minus-35 against the opposition (45-80).

5. Essendon has played an uncontested style of football this season, ranked fifth for uncontested possessions with an average of 236.4. In contrast the Suns are last with an average of 190.5.

6. One of the good stories over the past two years for Gold Coast is ruckman Jarrod Witts, who has climbed to a career-high 78th overall – 10th among ruckmen – on the Schick AFL Player Ratings.

IT’S A BIG WEEK FOR …

After playing 48 games in three seasons for the Suns, Adam Saad returns to Metricon Stadium with his new team for the first time. Saad was a fan favourite in his time on the Gold Coast and has made a big impression at the Bombers in his first season.

PREDICTION: Essendon by 31 points