House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi gestures during a news conference held in June by House Democrats condemning the Trump Administration's targeting of the Affordable Care Act's pre-existing condition. | Toya Sarno Jordan/Getty Images Health Care POLITICO-Harvard poll: Most Democratic voters driven by desire to ice GOP health agenda

Fear and anger over the GOP’s health policies are driving a majority of Democratic voters to the polls in an effort to flip control of the House and put the brakes on the Trump administration’s agenda, according to POLITICO-Harvard polling gauging voter attitudes before the midterm elections.

More than half of Democrats likely to vote in House races rank health care as “extremely important” in determining their vote, the new survey found. That’s more than any other factor in an election cycle that Democratic candidates have cast as a referendum on Republican attempts to dismantle the Affordable Care Act.


Yet the focus on health care appears confined to the Democratic side of the aisle. Republican respondents to the POLITICO-Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health poll are primarily influenced by terrorism, jobs and gun policy — a sign of deepening partisan divisions in the Trump era.

“The parties are incredibly polarized in what they are voting on,” said Robert Blendon, a Harvard professor of health policy and political analysis, who designed the poll. “Health care is not really a major issue for Republicans. But it’s an overwhelming issue for Democrats.”

Beyond health care, Democrats list education, the Supreme Court and climate change among their top concerns heading into the November elections.

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Blendon said elections usually revolve around a single policy area that energizes both parties like the health of the economy. This time, the only motivating factor driving both Democrats and Republicans isn't even on the ballot.

“We have a very substantial number of people who say their vote is at least in part related to their views, positive or negative, of Trump,” Blendon said.

More than two-thirds of Republicans say they’re somewhat motivated to vote in November to show support for President Donald Trump. Among Democrats, the president is playing an even bigger role in priming turnout: 72 percent say they’re voting in part to oppose his administration.

Democrats’ negative views are carrying over to nearly every major health policy move the administration has made, from efforts to repeal Obamacare to expanding short-term health plans and rolling out plans to curb prescription drug costs.

Likely Democratic voters now overwhelmingly list preserving health coverage and protections for people with pre-existing conditions as top issues, and roughly 70 percent say the future of Obamacare factors prominently in their vote. Those Republicans listing health care as a driving factor also rank pre-existing conditions as a major concern, in just the latest confirmation that the health care law’s patient protections enjoy broad bipartisan appeal.

The Trump administration’s expansion of short-term health plans — which are cheaper and skimpier than Obamacare coverage — has done little to motivate GOP voters. Fewer than half of likely Republican voters favor the coverage option, which is overwhelmingly opposed by Democratic voters.

Meanwhile, a majority of likely voters — and more than a quarter of Republicans — think Trump’s much-touted plan to lower drug prices will have no effect on pharmaceutical costs.

“The health care issue has not particularly been good for either President Trump or the Republicans,” Blendon said. “It really is a Democratic issue.”

It remains unclear how Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court will influence voting. The poll, which was conducted during the bitter fight over Kavanaugh’s nomination, showed Democrats ranking the Supreme Court high on their list of priorities.

Democrats have since predicted that anger over the confirmation will further spur turnout. Republicans have claimed the same, arguing that their base has been energized by Democrats’ bid to derail Kavanaugh’s candidacy.

Barring a major shift, Blendon said the issues that could determine control of the House revolve largely around preserving what voters already have, not what each party has to offer down the road.

For Democrats, the midterms are about protecting Obamacare and its benefits, and preventing the Trump administration from pursuing its own health care agenda. Republicans, reflecting Trump’s protectionist leanings, care deeply about issues like preserving gun rights and immigration restrictions.

“The economy has been replaced by a number of really sharp divisions on these issues,” Blendon said. “It’s not about a vision for the future here.”