There’s a case — and one better than expected, actually — to slot Duke as a No. 1 seed. Duke’s profile is similar to North Carolina’s, but the underpinnings of the Blue Devils’ argument is that they’re finally a full team and their showing down the stretch is a reflection of who they really are. In other words, ignore the loss to Virginia Tech (Grayson Allen suspension) and the mid-January lull (Mike Krzyzewski’s back surgery and a brief Amile Jefferson absence).

AD

AD

It’s worth pointing out Duke had its entire roster at its disposal and still dropped three of four to close the regular season, too.

Bottom line: North Carolina stays on the No. 1 line here, but flipping the Tobacco Road powers isn’t out of the question, either.

There are fewer shades of gray at the edge of the field than last year. Wake Forest, South Carolina and Kansas State should be in. Providence and Southern California are interesting cases; the more you look at them, the more you wonder if the committee finds a way to argue either of them out.

Providence isn’t a darling of any metric but piled up six top-50 victories plus a sweep of Marquette and showed a pulse away from home. That might overcome the dueling losses to Boston College and DePaul, setbacks that should mute any complaints if the Friars miss the field. Southern Cal has victories over Southern Methodist and UCLA and little else, but also was 9-6 away from home and didn’t mess up much. Sometimes, that’s enough.

Then there’s Rhode Island, which could make this exercise a little easier and just win the Atlantic 10 on Sunday.

AD

AD

All of those profiles are flawed, but then again, so is sits beyond the edge of the field. Syracuse has proven uncompetitive outside of its own building and has a Boston College loss of its own (plus a 33-point home setback against St. John’s). California collapsed down the stretch and owns one top-50 victory. Illinois State dominated the non-Wichita State portion of the Missouri Valley but has just one top-50 triumph. Beyond that is Iowa and then some unquestioned NIT fodder.

So the guess is Providence, Southern California and Rhode Island are all headed to Dayton, unless Rhode Island wins the Atlantic 10 and gets into the main draw. The options for the last few spots aren’t great, and the grumbling should be at a minimum this evening no matter who gets in.

EAST REGION



Buffalo, New York, Phoenix. If there’s one thing you can take to the bank, it’s the path Villanova will have in its national title defense. … There are a bunch of contingencies built into this bracket to account for Sunday’s games. One of them is flipping Wisconsin into the No. 5 seed in this region and dropping Purdue to a No. 6 if the Badgers win the Big Ten. …

AD

AD

Spent a lot of time weighing West Virginia and Louisville for the last No. 3 seed. Ultimately, West Virginia’s road wins (Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State) helped give it the nod. … The more you look at Vanderbilt, the more it becomes clear the Commodores are probably bypassing Dayton. For a team with 15 losses to do that is zany. … How does the committee deal with Oregon big man Chris Boucher’s season-ending knee injury? That’s a genuine mystery. The Ducks played okay without him last night.

SOUTH REGION



Maybe Maryland fans get their wish and Duke gets the No. 1 seed here. Ultimately, that pod is a path for whatever ACC power to make the Sweet 16. … Plug the winner of Sunday afternoon’s American Athletic title game between Cincinnati and Southern Methodist into the No. 5 seed in this bracket, with the loser as a No. 6 elsewhere. Cincinnati’s overall profile is better than SMU’s at the moment, thanks largely to its win at Iowa State, hence it getting the higher seed before the AAC final.

Wake Forest’s profile has its limitations, but it did nothing particularly bad and was a respectable 8-10 away from home. Look for the Demon Deacons to avoid Dayton. … Xavier manages to do the same; it ended up with the fifth-best Big East profile, ahead of Seton Hall and Providence. … There’s no contingency built in for Kentucky if it loses in the SEC final Sunday aftenroon, but it might not matter much, anyway. UCLA is probably the No. 3 seed with the best case to be slotted a line up.

AD

AD

MIDWEST REGION



The wonders of geography make it hard to shake the possibility of another Kansas–Wichita State game in the round. … Marquette looks better on paper the more you look at it in that form. On the floor, thumbs up to the Golden Eagles’ offense, with far less of an endorsement for their work at the other end. …

A Florida–Virginia game in the second round would be a dual #QuestFor40. … Duke–UCLA, in any round, would be a candidate for game of the tournament. … Hard to believe, but Arkansas and Michigan State have never met in the NCAA tournament. … New Orleans is one of the best stories in this year’s tournament. The Privateers have gone from starting the process of dropping out of Division I to making it to their first tournament since 1996 in less than a decade.

WEST REGION



Couldn’t tinker with the bracket enough to pair VCU with an obvious No. 8 seed (Maryland or Virginia Tech), but those are possible matchups for the Rams. … Iowa State moves up to the No. 5 line, putting the Cyclones in the same company as Duke, Michigan and Vanderbilt among power conference teams that helped themselves the most in league tournaments. …

AD

AD

Florida State–Florida Gulf Coast might be as obvious a first-round matchup as there is. … South Carolina will be rooting hard for VCU aginst Rhode Island in the A-10 final. A Rhode Island win might just bump the fading Gamecocks into a slot in Dayton. … Michigan’s offense is a blast to watch and Middle Tennessee mixes up defense like few others. What a matchup that would be.

***