Benfica and FC Porto could hardly be in more contrasting form going into Friday night’s clássico at the Estádio da Luz.

The reigning Portuguese champions have recovered from a shaky start to the season and have been in magnificent form over the last couple of months, reeling off 11 consecutive wins during which time they have scored an incredible 36 goals.

Porto, on the other hand, continue to be unrecognisable from the all-conquering machine of just a few years ago. Since Christmas the Dragons have lost 6 out of 12 games and defeat in Lisbon will surely end their hopes of lifting this season’s Portuguese title.

PortuGOAL previews tomorrow’s big match.

The historical equilibrium between Portugal’s two most successful teams is shown by the fact that after 233 matches in all competitions only four victories separate the sides, Porto having won 90, Benfica 86 with 57 draws.

But it is the Eagles who have had the better of things in recent years, especially at the Estádio da Luz, where a draw and victory effectively ensured Benfica, then under the guidance of Jorge Jesus, would become champions of Portugal in the last two seasons.

Upon the appointment of new coach Rui Vitória and a shift in strategy whereby the Lisbon club stated it would rely more heavily on its home-produced players, many were dubious they could make it three championships in the row, especially after Sporting’s strong start to the campaign. But Vitória has gradually got the team playing football of a calibre similar to his predecessor’s swashbuckling sides, and last week Benfica rose to the top of the table after yet another thrashing, this time Belenenses the victims of a 5-0 mauling.

Porto’s decision in the summer to stick with coach Julen Lopetegui backfired as the Spaniard again failed to get the most out of a seemingly luxurious squad, and was sacked after defeat to Sporting early in January. Things did not improve under interim coach Rui Barros or the new man at the helm José Peseiro, and last week’s home defeat by Arouca has seriously compromised Porto’s hopes of getting back into the title race.

Another loss tomorrow and it will almost certainly be three years without a league title at the Estádio do Dragão, something that has only happened once before in the reign of president Pinto da Costa, which has lasted over three decades.

Victory for the Blue and Whites however, will reignite hopes by cutting the gap to just three points as well as ensuring a head-to-head advantage, which would be decisive if the two teams finish on the same number of points at the end of the season. A Benfica-Porto fixture is notoriously difficult for punters to predict. Porto won the reverse fixture 1-0 thanks to an André André goal.

Benfica’s key players

Despite reeling off an impressive run of victories, Benfica’s defence has looked distinctly suspect at times, not helped by injuries to centre-backs Luisão and Lisandro López. Experienced Brazilian goalkeeper Júlio César has been an effective last line of defence, pulling off some astonishing saves and playing with a consistency that reminds one why he was once considered the best custodian in the world. The 36-year-old was decisive in helping Benfica to the championship last season and he could well be again this term.

Midfield partner Renato Sanches has been getting all the plaudits since coming into the side but the return to top form of Pizzi has arguably been just as important for Benfica’s dramatic upturn in fortunes. The introduction of Sanches into the centre of the park has enabled Pizzi to take up his natural right-sided position in midfield, where he has thrived, scoring freely and providing assists galore. An unflashy but highly effective player.

Surely nobody at Benfica, nor Brazilian striker Jonas himself could have expected such success when he signed on a free transfer early last season. 55 goals and 65 games later, and Jonas has firmly established himself as the most lethal marksman in the Liga NOS. The only question mark is his far inferior record against big opposition. The stylish goal-getter is yet to score in 6 matches against Porto and Sporting. The former Valencia marksman will want to put that right on Friday.

With Fejsa out injured Samaris will keep his place in the side. The Greek anchorman is no bad replacement for the Serbian, but he likes to tread a fine disciplinary line. A yellow card is surely inevitable. The question is will he avoid a red?

Porto’s key players

Yacine Brahimi has been substituted a total of 16 times in 26 games and his latest appearance in a FC Porto shirt won’t have been the first time he’s reacted angrily to being replaced before full time. The Algerian has since received a telling off by the club for his actions, but Friday’s crunch match versus Benfica offers him the opportunity to re-enter the good books again. Regarded as one of Porto’s most technically gifted players, Brahimi will be looking to create his habitual magic by cutting in from the left wing, whereas his movement alone should create plenty of space for the influential Miguel Layún to overlap and affect the game.

Layún could well be a key component for ‘Os Dragões’ at the Estádio da Luz, as he’s proven to be for much of this season. The Mexican, who has scored three goals and assisted twice for the northern outfit this season, will look to take advantage of Brahimi’s roaming to target what has been one of Benfica’s old-age weaknesses – their full backs.

If Porto are to be successful in their trip to Lisbon, then Danilo Pereira will almost certainly have to deliver yet another solid performance. Maicon’s recent “physical problem” wasn’t welcomed with much grace by officials of the ‘Azuis e Brancos’ and is expected to miss the ‘Clássico’, regardless of the validity of his injury. This will weaken Porto’s defence further, so Danilo will be crucial in safeguarding their Achilles heel from the likes of Jonas, Kostas Mitroglou, Pizzi and Nicolás Gaitán.

Benfica’s weak points

With the exception of the superb victory at Atlético Madrid in the Champions League, coach Rui Vitória has summarily failed to get the job done in Benfica’s biggest matches this season. Four defeats in four games against Porto and Sporting raise question marks about his ability to get his tactics right in decisive encounters. In his defence, all those matches were played while Benfica were still searching for their best form. With the Eagles firing on all cylinders, can the coach prove he has what it takes to come out on top on the big occasion?

As alluded to earlier, Benfica’s back four has not looked the most solid in 2015/16. Eliseu’s defensive shortcomings are well known, while Jardel and Lisandro López, although individually playing at a good level, have often failed to coordinate properly, especially when defending crosses. With the Argentinian struggling with injury and a doubt for the match, Swedish centre-back Victor Lindelöf will probably continue in the heart of the defence. Can FC Porto take advantage of his inexperience?

Porto’s weak points

As stated above, the heart of Porto’s defence has been a problem for the two-time Champions League winners and partly why ex-manager Julen Lopetegui was so obsessed with retaining possession and avoiding risks. Following the injury of Iván Marcano,‘Os Dragões’ are likely to pair Bruno Martins Indi with 19-year-old Chidozie from FC Porto B on Friday, which won’t exactly fill their fans with confidence when facing Benfica's free-scoring duo Mitroglou and Jonas.

At the origin of the tactical shake-up is Maicon’s likely omission from the Porto first-team. After being dispossessed in the lead up to Arouca’s winning goal last Sunday, the skipper walked off the pitch by his own accord after claiming he had picked up an injury. As a consequence, many fans have called for the Brazilian to be stripped of his captaincy, but that desire has opened up a whole new subject. Who is fit to captain Porto?

Except for Helton, Silvestre Varela, Héctor Herrera and Maicon himself, no other player has represented the first team prior to the 2014/2015 season. How many of the current squad members truly understand the core values of a club like Porto? That spiritual vacancy may well cost the Blue and Whites in such a big game against bitter rivals Benfica.

Tactics

It’s difficult to imagine that Porto will divert from their usual 4-3-3 formation for Friday’s away trip to the Estádio da Luz, in particular when the three in midfield gives them a numerical advantage in the middle of the park against Benfica’s commonly used 4-4-2 set-up.

However, given that the hosts’ attack has scored almost at will this season, a great deal of attention from the base of Porto’s midfield (most likely to be Danilo) will have to be given to protecting the back four from runners. In addition to stifling Jonas and Mitroglou, the visitors will also need to cut the supply coming from Gaitán, Pizzi and Renato Sanches.

Benfica’s creative sources will all look to affect the game centrally and it’s not something Danilo can be expected to handle alone. Such support can be provided by Rúben Neves, a player who can blend both defensive and constructive duties, so don’t be surprised if Peseiro opts for the 18-year-old instead of either André André or Héctor Herrera

Quote/unquote

FC Porto coach José Peseiro: “We realise the importance of this game. We want to cut the gap to Benfica to three points. We have our strategy for the game, but Porto has its own identity and it makes no sense to radically change our usual game plan.”

Benfica coach Rui Vitória: “We're perfectly aware that we will be facing a tough and strong team, as is traditionally the case. In these games it's difficult to have favourites, but perhaps we have a little more than a 50% chance because we will have the 'inferno da Luz' behind us.”

Probable starting line-ups

Likely Benfica XI

Júlio César, André Almeida, Jardel, Victor Lindelöf, Eliseu, Samaris, Renato Sanches, Pizzi, Nico Gaitán, Jonas, Mitroglou

Likely Porto XI

Iker Casillas, Miguel Layún, Bruno Martins Indi, Chidozie Awaziem, Maxi Pereira, Rúben Neves, Danilo Pereira, André André, Yacine Brahimi, Jesús Corona, Vincent Aboubakar

by Patrick Ribeiro & Tom Kundert