The 2018 election was over before it began: Wednesday was merely the formal campaign kickoff to kicking the Liberals out of power and electing Doug Ford to the premier’s office.

So say many pundits, pollsters, and politicians pursuing power. But beware people in the know, for no one really knows how the votes will add up on June 7th.

Public opinion polls cast the Progressive Conservative leader as the frontrunner, Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne as a dead duck, and New Democratic Party Leader Andrea Horwath as a dark horse on the move.

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Does Doug Ford’s crowd-for-hire rally mean U.S.-style political campaigning is here to stay?

But be skeptical of anyone selling certainty in a closely-watched campaign. If politics is broken, polling is beyond repair.

From the upset victory of Donald Trump in 2016 to the Liberal majority of 2014, the polls were pointless — people didn’t speak their mind, or didn’t yet know their own mind. Unlike the hyper-partisans who stalk Twitter or flock to mass rallies, most voters don’t truly turn their minds to Ontario politics until closer to election day.

But this election feels different. The personalities and policies are more controversial than at any time in recent memory.

Campaigns matter. Campaigns are also maddening.

Politicians make implausible promises or unsupported accusations. Their pitches rely on hype and hope, fear and frustration.

By all accounts, this is a change election. But be careful what you wish for — change can be unpredictable, and a fresh face isn’t always unfamiliar.

While Ford feels new and unblemished, he is arguably as much of a retread as his rivals. Ford ran and lost for mayor in 2014, and bears the scars of his years as a controversial city councillor alongside his brother Rob as mayor (imposing new taxes and collecting a rebuke from the integrity commissioner along the way). He stunned the Tories by coming from behind to win the leadership, suspended the party’s platform, renounced its core promises, and is reverting to the PC formula of cutting programs to achieve prosperity — details to come.

Wynne bears the baggage of five years as premier, weighed down by a further 10 years of Liberal rule that makes her an easy target for decisions good, bad and ugly — from the gas plants boondoggle to privatizing half of Hydro One. But her unpopularity has prodded her party to propose a slate of progressive policies — from a $15 minimum wage to expanded pharmacare and free child care for pre-schoolers — provided people overlook their surging debt projections (as voters usually do).

Ontario's three main party leaders squared off Monday in the first debate before June’s provincial election. Andrea Horwath, Kathleen Wynne and Doug Ford were asked after the debate how they plan to combat criticisms they face. (The Canadian Press)

Horwath hopes to leapfrog from last place into government as the default choice among voters disaffected with the other two parties. Untested in government, she benefits from the other two leaders attacking one another. But Horwath has been around as leader far longer than her two rivals, having assumed the NDP mantle nearly a decade ago without making much of a mark in provincial politics (apart from her disastrous 2014 election gambit, when she tried to lure PC voters but lost loyalists along the way). Now she is reverting to a progressive platform that promises expanded child care, pharmacare and denticare.

Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner gets the least exposure, having been excluded from the televised debates. That’s too bad, given Ford’s costly promise to take Ontario out of the fight against global warming by dismantling programs that make polluters pay.

Ford is a flashpoint, Wynne a lightning rod, and Horwath is offering shelter in a storm. Yet beyond their bitter personal rivalries, their competing promises don’t add up:

Ford promises to find $6 billion in painless cuts; Wynne plans a deficit of $6.7 billion; Horwath pledges to buy back more than $6 billion in Hydro One shares. All three leaders’ political ambitions are exceeded by their policy ambitions.

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It’s easy enough to pick holes in each party’s plan (the Tories haven’t yet presented one). Tempting as it is to write them all off as incoherent or untrustworthy, that would be a campaign cop-out.

By dint of desperation or inspiration, democracy is about choosing, not just complaining. An election is not a referendum on the party in power, but a contest among rival parties competing anew for power.

Elections require careful comparisons, even if that means deciding on the lesser of three or four evils. The alternative is apathy and abdicating your vote — which means letting others decide for you.

Tune in and stay tuned. No matter what people say, the campaign has just started — and with four long weeks still to go, it is far from over.

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