B.C. Liberal MPs are pushing back on claims that the province’s election is a blow to their local support, while pollsters suggest little immediate impact but plenty of future political risk for federal Liberals with a new provincial NDP-Green Party alliance.

And while NDP MPs have pointed to the provincial election results as proof of backlash against the federal approval of the $7.4-billion Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project, Liberal MPs offer a different assessment.

“The polling I’ve done in my riding doesn’t show that,” said Jonathan Wilkinson (North Vancouver, B.C.), who is parliamentary secretary to the environment minister.

“There is no unanimity on this project, there’s no question on that; but my position represents the majority of people in my riding.” He has defended the Liberal government’s approval of the pipeline expansion, though he’s also said he transmitted concerns of some of his constituents federally.

Transportation and housing are more important to voters, said Mr. Wilkinson who took nearly 57 per cent of the vote in 2015, more than twice the second-place finisher, Conservative incumbent Andrew Saxton. That last federal election saw a red surge in the province, with the 17 B.C. Liberal MPs elected representing 40 per cent of all provincial Parliamentarians and a jump from the two Grits elected in 2011.

“For the vast majority of people, [pipelines are] far down the list relative to the ones that are most impactful on their day-to-day lives,” said Mr. Wilkinson. “There are issues in B.C. that in my mind are more pressing and more top-of-mind for the majority of British Columbians.”

But federal NDP leadership candidate and MP Peter Julian (New Westminster-Burnaby, B.C.) said B.C.’s election result promises to have “enormous” federal impact.

“The feeling in B.C. is very intense,” said Mr. Julian, who characterized the results as an “orange surge” on the West Coast and predicted if an election were held today, only one or two Liberals would make the cut.

“I think what it actually sets up [in 2019] is a clear contrast between the Liberals…and a bold new NDP,” he said, calling the Liberals an “old way of thinking” reminiscent of Conservative approaches.

The B.C. Liberals encompass a mix of federal Conservative and Liberal supporters. The party under leader Christy Clark won 43 seats in last month’s election, leaving it one short of a majority government. The Greens, which hold three seats, agreed last week to support a minority NDP government, as the New Democrats have 41 seats. They are expected to vote down Premier Clark’s government.

Viewing the B.C. election results as a repudiation of the federal Liberals doesn’t jive with what Abacus Data’s David Coletto sees in the polls.

A May survey showed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s (Papineau, Que.) Liberals were “as popular as they’ve been in the province,” suggesting to Mr. Coletto that any federal impact is yet to be seen.

“It’s fairly clear to me this was, for the most part, a change election,” said Mr. Coletto, noting even by the end of the campaign only five per cent across the province and in metro Vancouver put pipelines or natural resource development as a ballot issue.

Frank Graves, president of Ekos Research, said approval of the pipeline that would transport bitumen from Alberta to B.C.’s coast for export to Asian markets, had a “relatively modest” effect.

“It did not have the impact that I thought it might have,” said Mr. Graves of the large-sample poll Ekos did at the time. “You’re so far from [the] federal election that maybe nobody’s paying attention, but I think it is notable; it didn’t have any catastrophic impact on their support.”

The re-election risks are higher for Liberal MPs along the coast, he said, including Terry Beech, whose Burnaby North-Seymour riding represents a portion of the city that acts as the terminus of the line. Mr. Beech, parliamentary secretary for Fisheries and Oceans, did not respond to a call for comment.

During last month’s election, the provincial NDP drew an orange line along coastal B.C. and in the province’s major cities, where 16 federal Liberals were elected in 2015.

“It’s a complex situation because the Liberals here at the federal level won most of seats in the urban areas,” said B.C. pollster Mario Canseco. “All of the Liberals at the federal level are in the [cities], and the cities essentially abandoned the B.C. Liberals.”

“There’s a sense of disappointment particularly on the environmental front,” added Mr. Canseco, vice-president of public affairs at Insights West. “A lot of people who voted Liberal, who believed in [the] promise to not have more pipelines, who are disenchanted with the decision on electoral reform—that young millennial, especially in urban areas that was looking [for a] voice for change—is now having second thoughts.”

Christy Clark’s B.C. Liberals would have been an easier government to get along with, not least because of the shared support for Kinder Morgan, and that means more opportunities for wedge issues to emerge in the coming months and years, said Mr. Canseco.

That is where the power lies, suggested Mr. Coletto, rather than the number of seats showing any sign of how British Columbians might vote federally in two years.

“The risk probably is higher to have to manage the complicated relationship,” said Mr. Coletto, and the fall-out should the already-controversial decision return to the news cycle. “On this high-profile issue, the two sides are going to be diametrically opposed.”

Greens see opportunity federally

With an unprecedented three Green MLAs elected and a place at the table with the governing NDP, Mr. Coletto said the federal Greens also face an opportunity.

“[It could] demonstrate even if you elect a handful of Green MPs, they can have an impact on the outcome and it’s not a wasted vote.”

That sentiment was echoed by federal Green Party Leader Elizabeth May (Saanich-Gulf Islands, B.C.).

“I think it puts to bed the unfortunate propaganda that voting Green is a wasted vote. We’ve been fighting that for years,” she said.

The Greens representing almost 17 per cent of the popular vote is unprecedented in Canada, added Mr. Graves.

“That by far smashes any barrier for any Green Party in North America,” said Mr. Graves, noting if proportional representation were a reality, the party would be seeing far more than three seats in power. “I think this thing could regenerate interest in coalitions and possible electrical reform.”

Ms. May criticized Joyce Murray (Vancouver Quadra, B.C.) as a well-known Liberal who stood on the promise for electoral reform. Mr. Trudeau had campaigned that the 2015 federal election would be the last conducted with the first-past-the-post system, but he abandoned that promise this year due to a perceived lack of consensus among Canadians for an alternative.

“David Suzuki, for the first time in his life, voted strategically for her because he believed the Liberals on electoral reform and on Kinder Morgan,” Ms. May told The Hill Times recently.

“I’m actually pretty proud of having been instrumental in raising conversation around electoral reform,” Ms. Murray said in response. “My purpose for that is to have a type of Parliament where we can move forward on complex issues like climate change because there’s an incentive to co-operate across party lines in Parliament as opposed to have a partisan divisive approach.”

Ms. Murray said government consultations revealed Canadians aren’t ready for reform.

“We don’t support rushing into a decision at this time. We don’t believe that there was adequate engagement of the public. I think this was a year of having the conversation and it was a great first start,” said Ms. Murray, who along with Mr. Beech, was a vocal opponent of the pipeline project. “The B.C. election has potential to…increase the awareness of electoral reform in the public and I think it’s positive when people [are] thinking of democracy.”

Nevertheless some pollsters, and Ms. May certainly, said the promised B.C. referendum on the issue by fall 2018 would put the wind in the sails of proportional representation.

Liberal MP Dan Ruimy (Pitt Meadow-Maple Ridge, B.C.) said he won’t speculate on the provincial election’s impact on the federal race in 2019.

“Quite frankly, if I’ve done my job then I stand a good job of coming back,” he said. “That’s what I focus on, is: reaching out to my community with the things that I can control.”

He said he’s already met with the two NDP MLAs elected in his riding to lay “the groundwork of how we can work together.”

Mr. Wilkinson pointed to the 10-page agreement between John Horgan’s NDP and Andrew Weaver’s Greens as a good place to start.

“There’s an enormous number of issues on which there’s very firm alignment, including issues on climate change. So I think there are a lot of areas where this government will be able to engage with the B.C. government in a very constructive way.”

swallen@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times

Liberal MPs, by lowest vote share, elected in the 2015 election