The researchers calculated the direct health-care costs of a meat-heavy diet (associated with the treatment of diseases such as diabetes or heart disease) and indirect costs resulting from unpaid care from family or friends, and lost work days. To quantify the savings of reducing meat-related greenhouse-gas emissions, they drew on a measurement called “social cost of carbon,” which estimates the value of future damages caused by each additional ton of carbon emissions.

Out of all the world’s countries, the U.S. would save the most by curbing its taste for meat. Due to its very high per-capita health-care costs, the country could save $180 billion if the population ate according to recommended guidelines, and $250 billion if it eschewed animal food products altogether—more than China, or all of the EU countries combined. And this is to say nothing of the number of obesity- and chronic-disease-related deaths that could be averted (at least 320,000 per year), and the accompanying benefits of reducing the level of greenhouse-gas emissions. (Springmann and his team made another estimate, using a somewhat less intuitive measure called “value of a statistical life,” that put the savings from not eating meat in the neighborhood of $2 trillion to $3 trillion in the U.S., and $20 trillion to $30 trillion worldwide.)

Overall, the researchers pointed out that the economic value of health benefits associated with more plant-based diets is comparable with, or exceeds, the value of the environmental benefits.

The authors admit, of course, that the valuation techniques they used are “subject to significant uncertainties.” And achieving the kind of savings they identify would require a massive overhaul of dietary patterns across the globe—the world’s population would need to reduce red-meat consumption by 56 percent, increase fruit and vegetable consumption by 25 percent, and simply consume 15 percent fewer calories overall.

But putting a dollar value on these already well-established impacts is significant: For one, these figures can guide policy. Countries could compare these health and environmental costs when considering the implementation of programs to reduce red-meat consumption or increase fruit and vegetable consumption, Springmann said. The dollar figures could also be used to analyze potential policies, such as new taxes or changes to the regulation of food advertising.

“What lots of health research has shown is that although individuals can obviously make a difference, it's not terribly efficient to appeal only to the individual without changes in the framework,” said Springmann. “What really works [are] population-based approaches that affect the whole food environment.”

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