New contract talks between General Motors Canada and its union could determine the future of Canada’s automotive industry and thousands of manufacturing jobs in the London region, observers say.

Unifor and GM Canada Ltd. are at the table trying to bargain a new collective agreement, with the saying it wants news product — vehicles to assemble — for GM’s Oshawa assembly plant or it will strike.

“This is a pivotal set of negotiations, one of the most important in the last 20 years. There is so much on the line,” said Jim Reid, president of Unifor Local 27 in London, representing more than 1,200 auto parts workers in the region among its many affiliates.

“The industry is doing well. If we can’t secure investment when they (automakers) are doing well, we cannot when the economy is in a downturn and when people are not buying cars.”

The London area’s roughly 30,000 manufacturing workers, many of whom are employed in the automotive sector, are watching the talks closely since they need a vibrant auto sector to keep working.

“We have to guarantee new investment. If the automaker makes a strong commitment, we will meet them. We can help relieve costs to secure investment,” said Reid.

It’s been done before, with unionized workers giving nearly $1 billion in concessions to GM in 2009 when, in the fallout of the last industry downturn in North America, the automaker faced bankruptcy.

That gesture by workers was matched by the Ontario and federal governments, which gave both GM Canada and Chrysler $13.7 billion in bailout money.

Unifor, representing more than 23,000 Canadian workers for the Detroit Three automakers, launched its contract negotiations with Ford Motor Co. of Canada Ltd. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Canada Inc. last week, taking a swipe as it did so at GM Canada which a day earlier said it won’t make any investment promises until after a labour contract has been ratified.

“Though we have similar challenges both Ford and Fiat Chrysler, they understand that investment decisions are going to be a part of 2016 negotiations,” said Unifor national president Jerry Dias, underlining “a clear difference” between the opening of talks with GM and the other two big automakers.

GM Canada has shuttered one of its plants at its Oshawa complex, which now employs only 2,500 workers.

Ten years ago, it employed about 12,000.

“Our members are expecting new investment. For a lot of people in Oshawa their jobs are on the line,” said Reid.

“GM had support from us and from the government, we gave them relief when they needed it and we need to be rewarded now.”

Last month General Motors Co., the parent company of GM Canada, reported its best quarterly financial earnings in seven years, with a $2.9 billion profit on a record $42.4 billion in revenue, up 11 per cent and well above a projected $39 billion.

It was the fifth straight quarter the automaker beat earnings estimates by at least 15 per cent.

Cami Assembly in Ingersoll, a GM Canada plant, isn’t covered by the new contract talks between Unifor and GM and will bargain its own deal next year. However, any agreement reached will be a template for those talks with tweaks for local issues, said Mike Van Boekel, chairperson of Unifor Local 88 at the plant.

“We follow the economic pattern, but there are separate local issues,” said Van Boekel.

Cami workers boast some features other plants do not. They must take vacation time, for example, while workers at other plants have the option of taking payment in lieu of vacation. Cami workers can also time-bank overtime hours.

Van Boekel, part of Unifor’s negotiating team, agreed the latest talks are critical to the industry’s future here.

“GM is telling the the unions now they will not committ to product. There has to be a committment or there will be a strike,” he said.

GM has reported it will invest $5 billion over four years by 2018 in Mexico.

Last year, the company announced it would also invest $5.4 billion in U.S. plants.

“I don’t think Canadian taxpayers bailed out GM so it can help Mexico,” said Van Boekel.

Cami now has more than 3,000 workers, 2,700 of which are hourly-paid. The plant has received $450 million in new investment to assemble the next-generation Equinox and Terrain crossover utility vehicles.

In addition, GM Canada is hiring up to 1,000 engineers, it has announced.

“This is extremely important for the London area — half our members are from London,” Van Boekel said of the talks.

Reid points to some local auto suppliers as proof these talks will impact the city and regions.

Coopers Standard, an auto parts maker in Glencoe, is hiring 55 workers — equivalent to nearly a quarter of the 180 workers it now has — thanks to a new contract with GM

Reid also points to Autoneum in London as having “a lot of work with GM.

Whatever happens at the table this summer “will trickle down,” Reid said “If they shut down Oshawa, a lot of plants here will shut down too.”

Unifor’s existing contracts with the big three automakers expire Sept. 19.

nbdebono@postmedia.com