"All I've ever wanted is an honest week's pay for an honest day's work." -- Nat Hiken

Lions, Tigers, and Bears ... Oh, My

That was as broad as an equity market beat-down gets; 11 sectors in the red. The S&P 500 saw its worst day since May. The stock market gets the headlines, but this is really not so much about stocks, is it? This turbulence in the force is being generated in the bond market. Not to mention North Korea, and I don't see that particular negative passing quickly. The U.S. 10-year now yields as much as it has at any point over the last eight weeks. German Bund yields are at year-and-a-half highs. Yields have risen across Europe. Even Japanese paper has been slapped around a bit, though the Bank of Japan has been far quieter in public than have speakers from other central banks. I just have one request. Please just don't call this a yield rally. That drives me nuts. There is nothing about this that smells like a rally. Bonds have been selling off, and in response to the expected headwinds that higher interest rates present, so have stocks. Period.

The most recent catalyst for harvesting some sovereign debt came from the ECB meeting accounts, which were rather hawkish. The ECB will meet again on policy in two weeks, about a week ahead of the FOMC. I will tell you this, they better do more than shrug their shoulders at that meeting. German 10-year paper yielded more than 0.55% yesterday, which was an 18-month high, and those yields have stretched higher this morning. Then there was the weak-ish auction for the French 30-year bond. Coordinated tightening across the globe? Maybe. Don't they all eventually mimic each other anyway? If not coordinated, then correlated tightening across the globe? At least correlated talk. No backstop. No Bernanke/Yellen put. No Draghi put. The return of "normal" volatility? What was once considered normal will seem severe to less seasoned traders. Will all of these tough-talking central bankers get to where they are all actually tightening policy at the same time? They will all at least get to the doorstep, and that will be enough to cause continued volatility. The VIX is off the mat, and it's probably going to be throwing both fists.

The Roadmap

The broader equity market's trend is still intact. Just barely. The rising yields have proven to be a catalyst for an equity market scalping. The S&P 500 closed last night at 2409. The 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) currently stands at 2413. Now, before running down the street in front of your home, warning the neighbors, this line has been pierced before, as recently as last week, and in fairly severe fashion as recently as mid-May. The 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) is running at its softest level since that mid-May selloff, but has not yet approached an oversold reading. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence Oscillator) gave us the bearish crossover that we all watched for on June 19 (about a week after the Nasdaq Composite sent us that signal), and has yet to come close to re-crossing, at least when the standard values for the moving averages are used for that equation. Even when using the Pitchfork model (one of my faves), it does not matter whether the model starts with the election night selloff in November, or the early 2016 lows; the lower bound of the model has been breached.

What does this all mean to us? Am I scared? No, but don't go by me. If I have access to clean drinking water, I'm set. We almost certainly can count on more volatility. Although I still like several names in the tech space and will remain long for now the likes of Lam Research (LRCX) - Get Report , NVIDIA (NVDA) - Get Report , and even Intel (INTC) - Get Report , I will proceed with caution. This sector is where even those late to the harvest still have profits. They will reap when they get nervous. They will get nervous.

The problem for the S&P 500 is that we are sitting on support right here. This level right above 2400 provided repeated resistance both late in the winter and then throughout the first half of May. That would lead me to think that we at least see some kind of fight here. This spot cracks though, and we can see this index give up another 40 points or so real quick, and then maybe another 40 points once that fight is fought. Rattled? No. You shouldn't be. You should still have a reason for every action taken, and fear is not a reason for capital redeployment. I think that equity markets will regain their footing, but between today and that day, you might have to be tougher than you thought. This is not an easy game, and not a lot of trader types have a lot of experience with this, which could exacerbate negative sentiment in the short to medium term.

Steely Nerves

Anyone else notice that the "deadline" for the Commerce Department' section 232 investigation passed very quietly last week? Still, steel prices are hanging in there. The G20 summit is currently underway and will extend through the weekend. I do not think that you will hear from the administration then until next week at the earliest. I remain long Nucor (NUE) - Get Report in anticipation of some kind of defensive move made in the space. NUE remains near the top of its recent charts, as does Commercial Metals (CMC) - Get Report . That said, it appears that equity market traders have started to lose patience with some names, as US Steel (X) - Get Report has come off of the top, and AK Steel (AKS) - Get Report tests its 50-day SMA.

I think I still want exposure here, but understand this. There is no sure thing in this space, no matter what the president has tweeted, or what you think Wilbur Ross might have said. Depending on your tolerance for risk, spending for downside protection might not be a bad idea.

DATA!

08:30 - Employment Situation (June)

Non-Farm Payrolls:Expecting 174,000, May 138,000.

Average Hourly Earnings:Expecting 2.6%, May 2.5% y/y.

Participation Rate:Expecting 62.7%, May 62.7%.

Average Workweek:Expecting 34.4, may 34.4 hrs.

Unemployment Rate:Expecting 4.3%, May 4.3%.

Underemployment Rate:May 8.4%. Every "Jobs Day", I try to list these six items in order of importance to not only the marketplace in specific, but the broader economy in general as well. Obviously, non-farm payrolls have been the key data-point within this report for many years now, for at least as long as monetary policy pushed job creation to the forefront in the wake of the "great recession". Today, the headline event was almost displaced on my list by the wage growth data. Those numbers are that important. With the participation rate eroding to the point that it has, the unemployment and underemployment rates have both fallen well down on the list, due to their inability to push markets around as they no longer truly paint an accurate picture of labor market health.

For today, we expect to see an NFP number above 170,000. Anything approaching 200,000 would be taken as a green light for the Fed's expected trajectory for interest rates and balance sheet management, as long as it coincides with acceptable wage growth. A third disappointing month in the last four for job creation would be seen poorly. Now, for the important stuff. What would be acceptable wage growth? Well, this is complex. You are going to need to see a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, and a year-over-year increase of at least 2.6%. Both of those numbers are expected, and both would represent minimal gains from May. You are also going to have to see these numbers in place without taking a hit to the average workweek. The gains will have less positive impact if people work less. If we see all three of these numbers report in place, that would be an undeniable positive for the economy. That said, then you will likely suffer through another tough day for the bond market, and right now, yields are everything.

More of What's Trending on TheStreet

Other Macro

10:30 - Natural Gas Inventories (Weekly):Expecting +56 billion, Last Week +46 billion cubic feet. Natural gas futures have come all the way back in after that false rally two weeks ago, and are now trading close to 2017 lows. Inventories are not helping much as today we expect to see the fourteenth consecutive weekly build in this space.

13:00 - Baker Hughes Rig Count (Weekly):Last Week total 940, oil 756. Last week, the number of U.S. oil rigs in operation actually contracted for the first time in 24 weeks. Within the report, the number of oil-producing rigs at work within the Permian Basin increased by one rig. That was basically the third consecutive weekly release indicating that the Permian may have reached a saturation point, at least at these market prices for the underlying commodity.

Sarge's Trading Levels

These are my levels to watch today for where I think that the S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 might either pause or turn.

SPX: 2428, 2422, 2412, 2404, 2397, 2387

RUT: 1420, 1413, 1404, 1398, 1390, 1384

There are no quarterly earnings highlights currently on my radar.

What's Hot On TheStreet

The biggest deal-maker around strikes again: Berkshire Hathaway Energy, a division of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc., (BRK.A) - Get Report (BRK.B) - Get Report , confirmed Friday that it will purchase Oncor Electric Delivery Co. LLC in a deal that values the bankrupt unit's equity at $11.25 billion. "Oncor is an excellent fit for Berkshire Hathaway, and we are pleased to make another long-term investment in Texas - when we invest in Texas, we invest big!", Buffett said in a statement. "Oncor is a great company with similar values and outstanding assets."

Clearly, Buffett is still bullish on America's future. TheStreet takes a look at the billionaire's biggest bets on America.

Who cares, Elon: Tesla (TSLA) - Get Reportagreed to build the world's largest lithium-ion battery park in South Australia on Friday, signing off on a deal to finish the installation within 100 days or give it away for free. Failure to deliver the project on time would cost his company about $50 million, said CEO Elon Musk, though neither the state government nor Tesla released details of the contract.

Meanwhile, Tesla's stock is in a bear market. The company's highly anticipated first Model 3 electric cars will begin production on Friday.

Qualcomm battle with Apple gets even nastier: Qualcomm (QCOM) - Get Report added a couple of unexpected wrinkles into its legal salvo with Apple (AAPL) - Get Report , TheStreet's tech columnit Eric Jhonsa says. One of these wrinkles aims to neutralize some of the legal arguments Apple, as well as certain regulators, have been making against Qualcomm. The other, says Jhonsa, aims to both lower the odds of a political intervention in Apple's favor, as well as boost Qualcomm's near-term chip sales at Intel Corp.'s expense.

TheStreet's founder and Actions Alerts PLUS charitable trust portfolio manager Jim Cramer makes some great points on Apple here.

Apple is a holding in Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS Charitable Trust Portfolio. Want to be alerted before Cramer buys or sells AAPL? Learn more now.

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At the time of publication, Stephen Guilfoyle was long LRCX, NVDA, INTC, NUE, although positions may change at any time.