For the first time on the Democratic side since 1992, there is no Clinton looming over the process, meaning the field is bound to crowd fast. Nor is there an inevitable nominee, or even an obvious person who speaks for a fractured party in search of a new message.

Dozens of potential Democratic presidential candidates have visited Iowa and New Hampshire, the two states that traditionally kick off the contest. The names range from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders to former Vice President Joe Biden to Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg. And let’s not overlook Maryland Representative John Delaney, who not only has been aggressively visiting both states but already filed paperwork to become a candidate.

We might have more than three years until America votes in the next presidential election, but the early jockeying has already begun.


Add to that the fact that last year’s election of Donald Trump as the first American president without either military or political experience means that more people like Zuckerberg, or even Oprah Winfrey, Starbucks chief executive Howard Schultz, or Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, might consider the possibility, crazy as that sounds.

Feel too early to think about an election that’s more than three years out? It’s not too early for President Trump, who has already begun a robust fund-raising schedule for his reelection bid, along with campaign rallies and even television ads. One should not assume that as the incumbent, he starts out as the Republican party’s presumptive nominee. He has advantages for sure, though a legitimate primary challenger might well be lurking out there.

But let’s get back to the Democrats and look at who among them is most likely to run. We compiled a list of the 10 candidates most likely to be the Democratic nominee, listed in order of their chances. By limiting the list to 10, we left off a number of potential candidates, including two Massachusetts politicians rumored to be looking at a bid: former governor Deval Patrick and Representative Seth Moulton. And since Hillary Clinton says she’s done with politics, we left her off the list, too.


So how did we determine who was No. 1? With the field wide open, we largely judged the candidates on three major factors: name recognition, fund-raising ability, and the capacity to amass a solid organization. Polling would typically factor in as well, but it’s too early for that.

1. Bernie Sanders

We might just be feeling the Bern again. The Vermont senator was the runner-up for the Democratic nomination in 2016. Since last year, he has continued to build his political infrastructure so much so that he would likely be the early front-runner in a 2020 contest if he ran again. He has a proven ability to raise hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign cash and now has a political operation in all 50 states. No other Democrat on this list can say that.

2. Elizabeth Warren

While Sanders has the money and organization, Warren is better positioned politically. Ideologically speaking, she is a bridge between the Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders camps. She is also a thorn in Trump’s side. And she is a woman — giving Democrats another shot to make history by electing a woman. The big issue is whether she’ll decide to run. She says she passed on a bid in 2016 because her first US Senate campaign was such a bruising experience and she felt a presidential run could be worse. She’s up for reelection in 2018. If that, too, is a slog (and Trump-affiliated super PACs are expected to try to make it that way), it might just convince her that a White House bid isn’t worth the headache.


3. Joe Biden

Every Democrat roots for “Uncle Joe.” He has long been thought of as the voice for the white, working-class voter that Hillary Clinton lost. While he passed on the 2016 race when he would have been the heir apparent, he doesn’t appear to be done with politics. He visited New Hampshire and South Carolina this year and has a new book coming out next week. His big problem might be that he assumes he will inherit the Obama organization. He might not. Also, he wasn’t a great candidate when he ran for president before.

Former vice president Joe Biden. Julio Cortez/Associated Press

4. Sherrod Brown

If the Ohio senator wins reelection in 2018, Democrats will probably give him a serious look. Brown is a strong progressive. And he wins in Ohio, the ultimate swing state. What else is there to say?

5. Kamala Harris

California’s newest senator might be a little too green to run for president (she’s been in the Senate for less than a year), but that is what they said about Barack Obama and Ted Cruz. Both of them won the Iowa caucuses during their first term in the Senate. Harris is a young, African-American woman, and those will be popular factors for Democrats. Critics say she’s too close to Wall Street. As California’s attorney general, they say, she did not do enough to prosecute banks, while taking campaign contributions from those very people. But she does have Democratic activists interested, and that is not for nothing.


Senator Kamala Harris. Mark Wilson/Getty Images

6. Andrew Cuomo

Cuomo will probably win a third term as New York governor next year. As the son of liberal hero Mario Cuomo, he has long had national name recognition. In office, he has tried to craft a reputation as a pragmatic, Democrat governor who can work with Republicans in a big state with diverse issues. His Achilles heel? The liberal base can’t stand him. They see him as far too conservative, and that could make any Democratic presidential campaign a nonstarter.

7. Mark Zuckerberg

If he were ever serious about a run, his wallet and potentially fresh thinking would be his biggest strengths. This summer, the Facebook founder traveled around the country — including several stops in Iowa — to tout his company and meet average Americans. Add to that the fact he has hired Clinton’s pollster and Obama’s former campaign manager to work at his foundation, and that’s left some with raised eyebrows. But should Zuckerberg get serious about a run, he would most certainly be asked about his company’s role in allowing Russia to meddle in the election that put Trump into the White House. So far, Facebook hasn’t been great at answering these questions.


Mark Zuckerberg. Andrew Esiebo via The New York Times/file

8. Cory Booker

Behind the scenes, Booker aides have been quietly plotting a 2020 run for the New Jersey senator. And it doesn’t hurt that a lot of people from Hillary Clinton’s world like him. But if Harris is seen as too close to Wall Street, then Booker has even more of a problem. Much of his campaign money has come from the nearby New York and New Jersey financial elite (not to mention that Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner once held a fund-raiser for him). He is, however, hustling in ways other would-be candidates are not, and the optics of that are worth something.

9. John Hickenlooper

The outgoing Colorado governor is a bit quirky, but he has a good story to tell about his rise in business and politics, as a self-made millionaire turned politician. If he were to run, he would probably get a lot of marijuana questions as well, but that is fine with Democratic Party voters, who polls show support the concept. Besides, he has a vacation home in New Hampshire that — just maybe — he can finally start to visit more often.

10. Eric Garcetti

The Los Angeles mayor would make history should he decide to run and actually win. He would be the first Hispanic president (he is the grandson of an undocumented immigrant from Mexico), as well as the first Jewish president. Plus, he’d be among the youngest presidents overall. Also on his resume: He is a former Rhodes Scholar and Naval Reserve officer. In LA, he has passed tax increases and is credited with bringing the summer Olympics back to the city in 2028. Oh, and he has already visited New Hampshire, where he made a good impression among activists. So what’s the downside? He’s a complete unknown, not to mention that no mayor has made the leap directly to the White House.

James Pindell can be reached at james.pindell@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell or subscribe to his Ground Game newsletter on politics: http://pages.email.bostonglobe.com/GroundGameSignUp