Nigel Farage claimed he had killed off a second referendum

The leader of the Brexit party declared his party would not stand candidates in the 317 seats won by the Conservatives in 2017. The exact impact is still a matter of debate, but it is almost certainly the most significant electoral boost the Tories have had in the campaign so far.

In a speech in Hartlepool (full text here), Farage claimed his decision meant a “leave alliance” was now in operation:

I have got no great love for the Conservative party at all. But I can see right now that by giving Boris half a chance, by keeping him honest and holding him to account by getting people in, and by stopping the fanatics in the Liberal Democrats who’d sign us up to everything, wouldn’t they, the United States of Europe, European army, you name it, I mean they even want to revoke the result of the referendum. No, I think our action … prevents a second referendum from happening and that to me I think right now is the single most important thing in our country. So in a sense, we now have a leave alliance. It’s just that we’ve done it unilaterally.

Boris Johnson said he had not agreed a deal

Johnson claimed he did not call Farage to agree a leave alliance. But Farage claimed he had changed his mind – even though only 10 days ago he said Johnson would have to abandon his whole Brexit plan – because of assurances made in a video posted on Twitter:

Last night, for the first time I saw something since that Brussels summit that actually was optimistic; because I saw Boris Johnson on a video saying ‘We will not extend the transition period beyond the end of 2020’… But much more significantly – and really quite unreported on so far today – he said something else that really did matter to me, hugely. He said we would negotiate a trade deal, a super Canada plus trade deal with no political alignment. Now that is a huge change.

Johnson’s “super Canada plus” comment has not been reported today because this sort of trade deal has always been his aim. But it did look as though the video had been distributed to give Farage cover for the climbdown.

Farage is still planning to run candidates in Labour-held seats, which could prevent the Tories from making gains. But given Farage has now accepted Johnson’s deal, and that a Johnson majority would be preferable to a hung parliament, it is hard to see the logic of his stance. It remains to be seen if a further retreat is coming. Thursday is the deadline when candidates must decide whether or not they are standing.

Opposition parties: the Tories are becoming the Brexit party

Labour (here), the SNP (here) and the Lib Dems (here) all made this point.

Jeremy Corbyn called floods a national emergency

The Labour leader called on Johnson to chair a meeting of the government’s emergency committee, Cobra, in response to the flooding in South Yorkshire.

Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) I've called on Boris Johnson to declare a national emergency and hold a COBRA meeting.



As Prime Minister he needs to take responsibility for the government’s response to the devastating flooding that's hit communities in the past few days.https://t.co/IrxQcpT3VD

Farage’s move: snap analysis

This is undoubtedly the best news that Boris Johnson has had during the campaign so far. It doesn’t mean the result of the election is a foregone conclusion, and it does not mean a hung parliament is now impossible, as Farage claimed, but an election in which the Brexit party is not standing in Tory seats will probably not be the same as an election in which it was splitting the Brexit vote.

Two points are worth stressing. First, Farage is capitulating from a position of weakness, not strength. The polls have not shifted a great deal in the past week, but one constant feature is that the Brexit party vote has been heading south. You can see the figures in the Guardian’s poll tracker.

Second, the Brexit party still seems to be intent on standing candidates in Tory target seats – particularly the leave-leaning Labour seats in the north of England, where Farage has been saying his party could do well. But it seems more likely that the Tories and the Brexit party will operate unofficial non-aggression pacts, allowing the best placed party to challenge Labour.

One final point. Until relatively recently it was assumed that if the Tories tried to fight an election without having delivered Brexit, they would get smashed by the Brexit party. Almost all media commentators thought this, but so did Johnson himself, and probably Farage too. But that was another piece of conventional political wisdom (like the idea that Corbyn could never win a Labour leadership contest) that turned out to be nonsense. You could cite this as proof that the Westminster commentariat are all rubbish (perhaps we are?), but it is probably better seen as evidence that voter behaviour is inherently unpredictable.

Meanwhile

Hillary Clinton has called Downing Street’s suppression of a report into potential Russian infiltration of British politics “damaging, inexplicable and shaming”.

A Green party candidate has withdrawn in a second marginal seat targeted by Labour, prompting speculation that more could step aside as part of an informal anti-Conservative alliance.

Dominic Raab, the UK foreign secretary, has accused Corbyn of putting Marxist solidarity ahead of democracy after the Labour leader said Evo Morales had been forced to resign as Bolivia’s president.

A Labour government would introduce “managed migration” for EU nationals in the event Brexit happens, the shadow foreign secretary, Emily Thornberry, has said as the party continues to debate what immigration policy to offer.

The Conservatives have challenged Labour to explain whether Corbyn would be willing to use nuclear weapons as a last resort after Thornberry refused to answer this question.

Johnson’s government appears to be preparing to nominate an EU commissioner, potentially breaching another Brexit promise.

Britain’s economy avoided a recession in the third quarter after it expanded by 0.3% but the annual pace of growth was the slowest for nearly 10 years.

Ireland has expressed concern over a Conservative party pledge to change the law to protect former soldiers in Northern Ireland from possible prosecution over deaths during the Troubles.

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