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Ottawa has an excellent chance of a white Christmas, probably followed by a winter on the mild side, Environment Canada says.

“I think it’s going to be a simple (prediction) in terms of a white Christmas. It looks like that is almost in the bag,” said David Phillips, the department’s senior climatologist.

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He sees a wave of cold weather over most of Canada starting in mid-December. That means that any snow we get is likely to stay on the ground, he said.

Apart from that, however, the department’s forecast for December, January and February calls for above-average temperatures in all three months. The best guess — nobody says this is an exact science — is that the season will be between one and two degrees above normal, which is considered a big enough difference that we will feel it.

But it won’t be anything like last year’s winter, which was about 2.5 degrees warmer than average. That was the second-warmest winter in 70 years for Ottawa.