Victor Hedman.

There's a reason we're hearing that name so much in the Stanley Cup final, and it's not simply the overhyping of a player that has been underhyped – to invent a word – for far too long in the NHL.

The big Tampa Bay Lightning defenceman has been incredible, whether you're using the eye test, the numbers test, or any other test short of one for tuberculosis. Not only is he unbelievably mobile for a big man – part of a new breed of agile giants that includes Nashville's Seth Jones – but he has outstanding vision coming out of his zone and isn't afraid of pinching down low to create offence.

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There was some question coming into this final whether Hedman could dominate games the way he had in earlier rounds against a team as good as the Chicago Blackhawks, with players like Duncan Keith and Jonathan Toews (among others) who are capable of taking over the ice as well as anyone in the league.

Well, through four games of the final, Hedman has answered those questions decisively, to the point that it's a different game when he's on the ice and when he's not.

You don't have to take my word for it. If you look at puck possession data for these playoffs, after 24 games, Hedman is at just shy of 56 per cent, trailing only Chicago's Marian Hossa among those logging big minutes on the Lightning or Blackhawks.

When Hedman isn't on the ice, the Lightning are way down at 44.6 per cent – meaning they're spending an inordinate amount of time in their own end.

That 11-per-cent difference is huge. In fact, it's nearly double the next closest player on these two teams. This deep into the postseason, we're not dealing with small samples, either.

Hedman has more than kept that up in the final. Here's a breakdown of his even strength minutes and puck possession percentage against Chicago's top 15 players (by minutes) through the first four games:

Hedman vs Minutes Possession 1 Brent Seabrook 44 60% 2 Patrick Kane 41 57% 3 Jonathan Toews 40 59% 4 Brandon Saad 38 60% 5 Duncan Keith 37 60% 6 Johnny Oduya 35 70% 7 N. Hjalmarsson 32 64% 8 Marian Hossa 25 57% 9 Andrew Shaw 16 52% 10 Brad Richards 14 62% 11 Patrick Sharp 14 71% 12 Marcus Kruger 14 67% 13 Andrew Desjardins 13 68% 14 Antoine Vermette 12 71% 15 Teuvo Teravainen 11 63%

Lightning coach Jon Cooper was hard matching Hedman against Chicago's best players when he had home-ice advantage in Games 1 and 2, and it paid off in getting him up against Toews for about 12 minutes per game.

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On the road in Games 3 and 4, that fell to closer to eight minutes, which is a significant positive given Toews's line – which is typically dominant in terms of controlling play, regardless of who's on the wing – has been anything but in this series.

Possession isn't everything in a game, obviously. You want to get to the slot, not just into the offensive zone. But teams that have that big of an advantage – 60 per cent or more – are getting a lot more looks at the net (shots and attempts), which speaks to their ability to breakout of their end, maintain control through the neutral zone and hold the offensive blueline once they're over it.

Both these teams are elite at doing so, but Tampa has been noticeably better so far in the series. Hedman (and to a lesser extent Anton Stralman) is the biggest reason why.

The Blackhawks normally get that advantage with Keith on the ice, but there's only one puck and they have to rely on their teammates to push things in the right direction. If Hedman and Co. have it 60 per cent of the time, Keith can't, and you have to wonder if his incredible minute burden (nearly 30 a game, every game) is adding up.

Keith also isn't getting as strong of a partner on every shift as Hedman, which is another key factor.

Here's what his matchups look like through the first four games:

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Keith vs Minutes Possession 1 Victor Hedman 37 40% 2 Anton Stralman 36 53% 3 Jason Garrison 33 64% 4 Braydon Coburn 32 54% 5 Ondrej Palat 31 55% 6 Valtteri Filppula 31 46% 7 Steven Stamkos 30 48% 8 Nikita Kucherov 30 53% 9 Alex Killorn 30 42% 10 Tyler Johnson 28 56% 11 Matthew Carle 24 61% 12 Ryan Callahan 23 49% 13 Cedric Paquette 20 50% 14 J.T. Brown 20 77% 15 Brian Boyle 15 61%

Keith's biggest inroads, in other words, are when Tampa's depth D pairings are on the ice. Those numbers for Garrison and Carle, in particular, are ugly.

The Lightning will probably want to keep Brown far, far away from him as well.

The good news is Chicago was able to get Keith free from Hedman-Stralman more often in Games 3 and 4. They also got the matchup of Keith on the triplets – especially Kucherov – much more with last change.

The bad news? Two of the final three games (if necessary) are in Tampa.

The last chart I'll throw in here is a brief look at the forward matchups. Much has been made of Toews going head-to-head with rookie Cedric Paquette, but the reality is he has played more against six other Lightning forwards at even strength.

Even when he has been on the ice against Paquette (only five minutes a game at evens), Toews has been on the winning end of the battle for the black disk.

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Toews vs Minutes Possession 1 Victor Hedman 40 41% 2 Anton Stralman 37 47% 3 Ryan Callahan 24 47% 4 Nikita Kucherov 23 51% 5 Ondrej Palat 22 59% 6 J.T. Brown 22 62% 7 Tyler Johnson 21 58% 8 Alex Killorn 20 43% 9 Jason Garrison 19 57% 10 Cedric Paquette 19 61% 11 Valtteri Filppula 18 46% 12 Steven Stamkos 18 50% 13 Braydon Coburn 14 73% 14 Matthew Carle 13 74% 15 Andrej Sustr 10 60%

This paints a similar story to Keith's chart, which is understandable given the overlap in their minutes. Toews is struggling against Hedman, succeeding against the triplets, and absolutely slaughtering Coburn and Carle.

Toews's minutes against Kucherov and Palat were way, way up in the games in Chicago, which shows how closely coach Joel Quenneville wants his Selke nominee to be watching them. To a lesser extent, Toews also played more against Coburn, Garrison and Stamkos than in Games 1 and 2.

Overall, what these numbers paint is a picture of a series where the matchups are of vital importance. We don't always see swings this pronounced with certain players up against others, but that's happening here with such talented, Norris Trophy-calibre players at the top end of the roster.

If these trends continue, you have to like the Lightning's chances of winning two out of the next three games. And if they do, Hedman should win the Conn Smythe Trophy, regardless of his point total, for what he's accomplished.

But the Blackhawks have two things working for them: 1) They know how to adjust in-series to account for where they're being beaten, perhaps better than anyone and 2) They've played their best games in elimination games for years and years.

The best from Keith and Toews could definitely still be coming. We haven't seen it yet.