DISEQUILIBIUM: India's creaking war machine



The Indian security establishment is extremely wary of the Difa-e-Pakistan Council (DPC) which has emerged as the quintessential anti-India provocateur across the border.



Now considered the driving force behind the terror factory operating inside Pakistan, its close affiliation and association with banned entities like Jamaat-ud-Dawa and the dreaded Hafiz Mohammed Saeed has raised the hackles of India's military and security apparatus.



DPC comprises as many as 40 religious fundamentalist organisations which have adopted a hawkish anti-India stance.









This motley group - which counts among its benefactors and patrons retired Army generals like ex-ISI chief like Hamid Gul, Saeed, Harkat-ul- Mujahideen founder Fazl-ur-Rehman Khaleel and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi leader Malik Ishaq - may have no legal sanctity or standing, but its potency cannot be under estimated viz. its influence and clout in Pakistan's approach towards India.

Both on the Most Favoured Nation and water-sharing issues, it has taken a rabid hardline position which in a way is now actively influencing Pakistan's foreign policy.



Under the garb of this council, a quasi-fundamentalist-military war machine alliance has been stitched up which has India's intel operatives' knickers in a twist.

Hatred



The mindset governing this fearsome alliance reeks of religious nationalism, targeting India and the US on various issues.

The undertone of Jazba Difa-e-Pakistan is of issues like challenging the occupation of Kashmir, drone strikes in SWAT, NATO supply routes, MFN for India et al focused on stoking the fires of promoting jingoism.

With Pakistan upping the ante on the border this year, India's military resolve has been challenged incessantly. Pictured is Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif

'Will you defend Pakistan?' is the overarching theme that their website promotes.



Last year, Saeed was at the vanguard as the chief coordinator of the Long March against reopening of NATO supply routes.

In September this year Hafiz Saeed led the prayers at Liaquat Bagh promising war against India.



As a top Indian military hand explained to me the other day, "We know the mindset of the DPC, its entire nature of existence and being is predicated on spewing venom and hatred against India. The drawdown from Afghanistan is critical for us because we have no leverage in that country while Pakistan does. My sense is that the vacuum in Afghanistan means trouble ahead for India. In the asymmetrical war on India, the DPC is sitting in the driver's seat."



Collusion



With Pakistan upping the ante on the border this year, India's military resolve has been challenged incessantly.



A principal cog of the Indian security setup is the Indian Air Force which finds itself hamstrung and impeded due to delays and muddles.



At the very kernel of its fighter fleet modernisation and upgrade is the induction of the multi-role fighter - Rafale from France.

Modern warfare needs air dominance, combat readiness and superiority.



The sorry tale of the Rafale is a classic instance of India sitting on its haunches, not taking a call on its own future.



Pakistan has F-16s, China has SU-27s and J-10s, the neighbourhood isn't static, it is obvious that there is far reaching and widespread collusion between these two nations to target India.

Symptomatic of the opacity that exists in India's defence purchase process is the Rafale.

The induction of Rafale or any other multi-role fighter is an absolute necessity for the IAF at this precise moment.

It is a long-term investment as part of the framework for India's defence and offence needs.



The essence of modern warfare is speed, reaction and results.

The government has created a capital budget for the multi-role fighter and it works out to Rs 9,000 to 10,000 over the next several years.



At the moment, India is down to a bare minimum of 34 more or less ageing squadrons stretched across two fronts.



The threat percept is real and dangerous on both the Pakistan Chinese borders.



With at least 42 squadrons required by India, it is incumbent on the Air Force to move fighter squadrons from left to right and vice versa.



This by itself limits the functioning of the Air Force.

The induction of Rafale or any other multi-role fighter is an absolute necessity for the IAF at this precise moment

Two fronts



Adequate appears to be a relative term, given that we are pitched against two formidable rivals.

In a two-front contingency, the state of play is fluid since a major trust deficit exists with both nations.



Different security scenarios are rapidly unfolding.



The inability to sign on the dotted line so that aircraft are delivered is leaving the air force vulnerable.



Nowhere else in the world does a situation like this exist where two enemies are working in tandem.

An old military saying states that mountains eat up people, to achieve the real winnable dividend in modern conventional warfare, India needs to bolster its air defence and offence capabilities.



There is a price attached to security and in the main air warfare.



Alacrity in decision making is a given in such circumstances.



Realism to assess the drawbacks and weaknesses in the system is sadly de rigueur.

The understanding of war ratios is missing, two militarily predatory neighbours both bearing down on India using a combination of covert and overt threats, constantly pushing the envelope, testing India's patience and will to counter.



Exposing chinks in India's defence preparedness.



Threat



From the call of the DPC from deep within Pakistan and a rampant new Chinese leadership, India's deep state has its hands full.

India's defence infrastructure needs to be bulked up, accessibility to weapons and armaments for operational superiority on the ground is the underpinning of its needs at all times.



There are many in the Indian deep state who sneer and frown appreciably at what happened in the Depsang Valley Chinese incursion.



They reckon that if India's military and security mainframe had prepared adequately at least a decade ago, then incidents like Depsang wouldn't take place.

It is clear that both China and Pakistan are slowly but surely chipping away at this weakened mainframe.



Without being alarmist - it is not that India is incapable - but equally 2013 has seen testing times on both fronts.

