There are plenty of plausible reasons why Republicans might eventually fold in the standoff over the Supreme Court: overwhelming public opinion, a Democratic pressure campaign, and vulnerable GOP senators trying to save their jobs, to name a few.

But there's another, even more persuasive, reason they won't: the wrath of the right wing.


The activist right has been galvanized by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's quick and forceful insistence that the Senate will not take up a high court nominee for the rest of Barack Obama's presidency, spending millions already to defend the GOP position with likely lots more to come. Tea party groups that have dissed McConnell for years as an establishment sellout are singing his praises.

It's safe to say all of that would end the instant Republicans agreed to take up Merrick Garland's nomination. And the fire would turn inward at the worst possible moment for Republicans, as the party is scrambling to save its narrow Senate majority in November.

“If the senators start to move off of this position, the biggest problem they are going to face is going to be a loss of support … they’re going to alienate the most active part of their constituency,” said Adam Brandon, president and CEO of FreedomWorks. “I want Mitch McConnell to see that the potential grass-roots army is far stronger than anyone on K Street.”

Look no further than the reaction to Sen. Jerry Moran's (R-Kan.) break with party leadership last week — he said the Senate should take up Garland's nomination — to see how important it is to the base not to fill Antonin Scalia's vacant seat this year. The conservative Judicial Crisis Network vowed a "robust" campaign against Moran to change his mind. The Tea Party Patriots threatened to back a primary challenger against the first-term senator.

It's easy enough to imagine the entire Senate GOP getting the same treatment.

The JCN has already spent $4 million on ads, both bucking up McConnell and Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and going after Democrats from red states. The deep-pocketed group says it has the resources to keep it up as long as needed.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, meanwhile, has been fundraising off the Supreme Court vacancy for weeks, a tactic that works only if the party remains united. And Susan B. Anthony List, which opposes abortion rights, has shifted its focus from the presidential campaign to holding the Senate, with plans to spend millions helping senators who oppose abortion rights.

“This would be the worst point in history for a cave to occur, and for that reason I do not believe it will,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, the group's president. “When there is true leadership coming out of the Senate, it’s a more appealing body to defend.”

When former House Speaker John Boehner resigned under pressure last year, all eyes shifted across the Capitol to McConnell, who's drawn more than his share of flak from the right for cutting deals with Democrats. His vow for no hearings or vote on the president's court pick instantly remade the majority leader's reputation with his conservative adversaries. But the dynamic could change just as quickly if he backs away.

"If Republican senators can't fulfill the basic task of defending the Constitution, they should be defeated at the ballot box," said Ken Cuccinelli of the Senate Conservatives Fund, a group that consistently works against McConnell.

McConnell's confidants say the message has been received. People close to him say he's holding the line 100 percent, and that the Republican Conference overwhelmingly has his back. McConnell appeared on four Sunday political shows this month to repeat at length his plans to allow voters "to weigh in” before the vacancy is filled.

“This is first time I find myself praising Mitch," said Brandon of FreedomWorks.

“I don’t think [conservatives] would be happy. I wouldn’t be happy” if McConnell relented, said Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn of Texas. “The idea that anybody is sort of exerting pressure and somebody’s going to crack is just not reality.”

While a growing number of Republicans say they will meet with Garland, just three GOP senators — Moran and moderates Susan Collins of Maine and Mark Kirk of Illinois — have truly broken with the leader and called for hearings and consideration of Garland’s nomination. GOP senators such as Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and Rob Portman of Ohio, all of whom face tough reelection campaigns, say they will meet with Garland merely to reiterate their position that the seat should be filled by the next president.

Democrats believe McConnell is motivated by self-preservation. Siding with activists on the Supreme Court, they say, could help the majority leader avoid Boehner's fate.

“I do believe he’s going to lose the majority. And he’s hoping that 2018 is going to be better [electorally] and he wants to save his job so he’s around [to return to majority leader] in 2018,” Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid said in an interview. “He’s actually saving himself and sacrificing his people that are up this time. He knows what happened to Boehner.”

Democrats would have socked McConnell for his handling of the Supreme Court no matter what. If he slow-walked the nomination, he would have been criticized for wasting time. And if Garland made it to the floor only to lose a vote, McConnell would have been accused of forcing his members to vote down a nomination of a qualified justice.

By planting his flag early, McConnell ensured praise from unlikely allies. If he holds firm, it could temper criticism from the right of his deal-making with Democrats and perhaps stoke Republican turnout in November.

“It is an example of leading ... when you lead, you take a principled position and you stick with it," said Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), a tea party favorite who lost a Senate bid in 2010. “Would people be upset if they say they’re taking a principled position and then back off of that? ... That would be a problem.”

Lauren French contributed to this report.