Hailed by Michael Salfino (TheAthletic, FiveThirtyEight, and The Wall Street Journal) for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” The Prospect Digest Handbook has become a mainstay for baseball enthusiasts, minor league aficionados, and championship fantasy general managers. Pick up your print version here and your eBook version here!

______________________________________________________________________________

1. Luis Garcia, SS

Hit Power SB Field Overall 45/65 30/50 50 50/55 65+

Background: Widely viewed as one of the top international free agents on the market two years ago. Philadelphia handed the 5-foot-11, 170-pound switch-hitting shortstop a hefty $2.5 million bonus. Garcia wouldn’t make his highly anticipated debut until last season. And, simply put, it was one helluva showing. Starring with the organization’s Gulf Coast League affiliate, the Dominican-born infielder slugged a scorching .369/.433/.488 with 11 doubles, three triples, and one homerun. He also swiped 12 bags in 20 total attempts. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 62% and 30%.

Analysis: Consider the following:

Since 2006, there have been 60 instances in which a 17-year-old received at least 175 plate appearances in the Gulf Coast League. Garcia’s 162 wRC+ ranks as the third best, trailing only Juan Soto and Jefry Marte – both, by the way, having made it to the big leagues.

Let’s take it another step forward…

Player Age PA AVG OBP SLG BB% K% wRC+ DRC+ Juan Soto 17 183 .361 .410 .550 7.7% 13.7% 184 145 Luis Garcia 17 187 .369 .433 .488 8.0% 11.2% 162 130

Power notwithstanding, Garcia went toe-to-toe with one of the game’s best young stars at the same point their respective careers. Yes, the power’s a big differentiator, but the rest of the work speaks for itself. Garcia has a plus hit tool, above-average or better speed, and the glove to stick at the most important spot on the infield. The power’s still largely untapped, but there’s the potential to develop 50-grade pop; he posted a 25.9% line drive rate last season. He could be the top shortstop prospect in a year’s time.

Ceiling: 4.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

______________________________________________________________________________

2. Adam Haseley, OF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 60 50 40 50 60+

Background: The University of Virginia, one of the nation’s premier collegiate programs, has churned out an impressive amount of talent over the past several years – including nine first round picks since 2014 and a total of 12 players chosen among the top 100 picks in each draft. And it’s not surprising that Haseley, the best hitter in the school’s potent lineup during his junior campaign, heard his name called when Philadelphia made their selection with the eighth overall pick in 2017. A .390/.491/.659 hitter during his final season with the Cavaliers, Haseley’s already hopped, skipped, and jumped up to Class AA by the end of his first full profession season. The 6-foot-1, 195-pound outfielder split time between Clearwater and Reading last year, hitting a combined .305/.361/.433 with 17 doubles, five triples, and 11 homeruns. He also swiped seven bags in 11 total attempts. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by27%.

Analysis: Within a year-and-a-half of entering pro ball Haseley’s already knocking on Philadelphia big league door. A smooth-swinging hitter, Haseley’s line-drive approach sprays balls from gap-to-gap with ease; all but two of his 17 doubles went to the opposite field. Haseley’s approach at the plate hasn’t been as consistent as it was during his tenure in collegiate, though his patience should be no worse than average at the big league level. And the lefty-swinging outfielder hasn’t shown any concerning platoon splits either. Defensively speaking, he can handle center field decently, but he’s likely going to spend the bulk of his career in left field. His approach at the plate – as well as his defensive value – is reminiscent of a young Michael Brantley.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

______________________________________________________________________________

3. Spencer Howard, RHP

FB CB CU CH Control Overall 70 55 60 55 50 60+

Background: The front office handed the right-hander a hefty bonus worth a touch over $1.1 million as their second round pick two years ago. Howard, a product of Cal Poly, made nine brief starts in the New York-Penn League during his debut, throwing 28.1 innings with 40 punch outs and 18 free passes. The 6-foot-3, 205-pound righty spent last season dueling against the hitters in the South Atlantic League – a battle that he generally came out on top of. Howard made 23 starts with the Lakewood BlueClaws, posting a whopping 147-to-40 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 112.0 innings. He tallied a 3.78 ERA and a solid 3.46 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

Analysis: Equipped with a plus fastball that sits in the mid-90s and can touch as high as 99 mph on occasion. But what makes Howard such a promising pitcher is the ease at which he fires his heater. It’s almost effortless. Howard complements the dominating offering with three secondary pitches: an upper 80s slider; a hard, bat-breaking cutter that touches the low 90s, and a fantastic changeup. It’s a bit surprising that the front office didn’t push Howard up to the Florida State League at some point last season, but he’s likely to spend at least a portion of 2019 in the Eastern League. At the bare minimum he’s a dominant, lights out, shut-em-down reliever. But there’s some upside in the rotation along the lines of a good #2/#3. I really, really like him.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

______________________________________________________________________________

4. Alec Bohm, 3B

Hit Power SB Field Overall 40/55 45/55 30 50 60+

Background: While lacking a powerhouse pedigree, Wichita State’s churned out some notable names over the past decade-plus: the Rays snagged first baseman Casey Gillaspie with the 20th overall pick in 2014 and veteran southpaw Brian Flynn was a seventh round pick in 2011. Other alums include: Connor Gillaspie, Casey’s older brother, Andy Dirks, Mike Pelfrey, Nate Robertson, Casey Blake, Darren Dreifort, Mike Lansing, and – of course – Joe Carter, the second overall pick in 1981. Bohm, a well-built third baseman hailing from Lincoln, Nebraska, turned in a stellar three-year collegiate career. After batting over .500 in each of his final two high school seasons, the 6-foot-5, 220-pound prospect transitioned incredibly well into the Missouri Valley Conference. In 51 games for Manager Todd Butler, Bohm batted .303/.346/.489 with 13 doubles, one triple, and six homeruns. He continued that torrid pace for the Wilmington Sharks in the Coastal Plain League the following summer as well: he finished the year with a .330/.407/.552 triple-slash line, belting out 12 doubles and 11 homeruns. Bohm’s plate discipline took a massive leap forward during his sophomore campaign for the Shockers – his strikeout-to-walk ratio improved from 25-to-9 to 31-to-29 – while his overall production spiked to star levels. In 58 contests, the then-20-year-old slugger battered the competition to the tune of .305/.385/.519 with 13 doubles, a pair of triples, and 11 homeruns. And, of course, he dominated the summer league competition. This time, though, it was in the elite Cape Cod League. Playing for the Falmouth Commodores, he led the club in average (.351), on-base percentage (.399), and finished tied with Clayton Daniel for the team lead in doubles (10). Last season, Bohm – once again – raised his offensive numbers another level. He slugged .339/.446/.625 triple-slash line with 14 doubles, one triple, and 16 homeruns. And, of course, his plate discipline improved as well (28-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio). Philadelphia drafted Bohm in the opening round, third overall, and signed him to a deal worth $5,850,000 – roughly $1.1 million below the recommended slot bonus. Unfortunately for the former Wichita State slugger, he looked miserable in his debut, hitting a puny .252/.335/.324 in 40 games.

Analysis: Here’s what I wrote about Bohm heading into the draft last season:

“An impressive, impressive career for the underrated third baseman. First let’s take a look at his work during his sophomore season. Consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2017, only 10 Missouri Valley Conference hitters have batted at least .300/.375/.500 with a walk rate of at least 9% and a punch out rate below 12% (min. 200 PA): Bohm, Casey Gillaspie, Matt Duce, Kevin Kaczmarski, Jeremy Lucas, Tate Matheny, Austin Montgomery, Chris O’Brien, Boomer Synek, and Mike Tauchman.

The intriguing part: All but Montgomery and O’Brien were eventually drafted. So let’s continue. With respect to his work in the Cape Cod League during the 2017 summer, consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2016, only three hitters in Cape Cod League posted a .335/.420/.550 triple-slash line (min. 150) PA): Kyle Schwarber, A.J. Pollock, and Kyle Roller. Of course, Schwarber was the fourth overall pick four years ago; Pollock was the 17 th pick in the 2009 draft, and Roller was an eighth rounder in 2010.

pick in the 2009 draft, and Roller was an eighth rounder in 2010. And, for what’s worth, here are the career wRC+ totals of Schwarber and Pollock: 115 and 118.

Obviously, that’s some pretty nice company to keep. So let’s continue. Now let’s focus on his production – thus far – in 2018 as the Shockers moved into the AAC. Consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2017, only X American Athletic Conference (AAC) batted .325/.415/.560 with at least a 12% walk rate (min. 200 PA): Ian Happ, the ninth pick in the 2015 draft, and Corey Julks, an eighth round pick by the Astros last June. Happ, by the way, owns a career 109 wRC+ mark in the big leagues.

Bohm is going to be an above-average big league hitter, peaking around .290/.350/.490 with 20+ homerun potential. Depending upon his defensive chops, he has the potential to turn into an All-Star caliber performer.”

Here’s hoping that last year’s debut is an anomaly, not a harbinger of things to come.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

______________________________________________________________________________

5. Adonis Medina, RHP

FB SL CH Control Overall 60 55 60 55 60

Background: Another one of the high octane, nitrous-infused arms developing in the Phillies’ development engine. Medina was originally signed by Philadelphia as an amateur free agent for just $70,000 in 2014. The wiry right-hander turned in one of the bigger breakouts in the club’s farm system two years ago. After fanning just 34 in 64.2 innings in the New York-Penn League in 2016, his strikeout rate exploded to career best 10 punch outs per nine innings he moved into the Sally the following year. And the Dominican-born right-hander was able to maintain that momentum as he moved into the Florida State League in 2018. In a career-high tying 22 appearances, Medina tossed 111.2 innings with 123 punch outs against just 36 free passes. He finished the year with a 4.12 ERA and an unsightly 4.72 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

Analysis: More of a strike thrower than a command-oriented pitcher, Medina has had no problem filling up the zone throughout the duration of his professional career. Medina attacks hitters with a plus fastball that sits easily in the 93- to 94-mph range. His slider, a low 80s offering, has improved over the past couple of years, going from mediocre to above-average. And his changeup, the best of his offspeed weapons, has been an equalizer for him. Medina has the potential to grow into a mid-rotation role in the coming years. With respect to his work in High Class A last season, consider the following:

Since 2006 only two 21-year-old pitchers have posted a 25% to 27% strikeout percentage with average control in the Florida State League (min. 100 IP): Touki Toussaint and – of course – Adonis Medina. Toussaint’s repertoire is better positioned to ascend near the top of a big league lineup, but their similarities are certainly striking.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

______________________________________________________________________________

6. JoJo Romero, LHP

FB CB SL CU CH Control Overall 55 50 50 55 50 50 55

Background: A tremendous find – and proverbial tip of the cap – to Phillies scout Brad Holland, who unearthed the promising southpaw in the fourth round three years ago. The organization signed the 6-foot, 190-pound southpaw to a deal worth $800,000 and immediately transitioned the collegiate reliever into a full-time starter pitcher. And Romero, a California native, has rocketed through the club’s farm system. The lefty spent last season twirling strong start after strong start for the Reading Phillies before a strained oblique forced him to prematurely end his season in mid-July. Prior to hitting the DL Romero tossed 106.2 innings of work, recording 100 punch outs and 41 walks to go along with a 3.80 ERA and a 4.61 DRA.

Analysis: Cut from the same cloth that every crafty left-hander – seemingly – comes from. Romero has a bevy of pitches – five, to be exact: A fastball, curveball, slider, cutter, and changeup – with the latter three blending together at times. Romero’s heater sits in the 91-mph range, though he’ll subtract and add to it at will, sometimes touching as high as 93 mph. Beyond that, though, Romero’s cutter is the only other above-average offering. He succeeds by changing speeds well and never committing himself to a noticeable pattern. Romero should peak as a capable rotational arm, somewhere along the lines of a #4-type starting pitcher. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, only two 21-year-old pitchers posted a strikeout percentage between 21% and 23% with a walk percentage between 8% and 10% in the Eastern League (min. 100 IP): Carlos Carrasco and Jonathon Niese.

Romero lacks Carrasco’s power-packed repertoire, but he has a similar skill set as Niese, a long time veteran and fellow crafty lefty.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

______________________________________________________________________________

7. Rodolfo Duran, C

Hit Power SB Field Overall 45 55 30 55/60 55+

Background: Signed out of the Dominican Republic as part of the same class that added right-hander – and fellow top prospect – Adonis Medina to the fold. Duran barely registered a blip on many prospects lists before last season. The short, stocky backstop appeared in just 118 total games between 2015 and 2018. But last season, though, Duran’s bat – which has offered up a couple glimpses of potency in the past – awakened like a slumbering giant. In a career-best 88 games with the Lakewood BlueClaws, the 5-foot-9, 181-pound catcher batted .260/.304/.495 with 17 doubles, one triple, and 18 homeruns. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by 24% and 25%, respectively.

Analysis: Duran had belted out a total of three homeruns prior to last season so the surge in power was – completely – unexpected, especially for a player well below 6-feet. And just for fun: had he kept up the same pace for an entire season Duran would have belted out roughly 33 dingers. The hit tool’s nothing to write home about. And he’s never shown a patient approach at the plate. But his defense has consistently graded out between above-average and plus. Duran has the potential to develop into a .250/.300/.450-type hitter with strong defense, something along the lines of a Salvador Perez performance.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

______________________________________________________________________________

8. Francisco Morales, RHP

FB SL CH Control Overall 60 55/60 45/50 40/45 55

Background: Signed out of San Juan de los Morros, Venezuela, as an amateur free agent in 2016. The lanky 6-foot-4, 185-pound right-hander wouldn’t make his debut until the following season. Morales made 10 appearances with the club’s Gulf Coast League affiliate, nine of which were starts, posting a decent enough 44-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 41.1 innings of work. Philadelphia pushed the then-18-year-old hurler up to Williamsport for the 2018 season. He would toss 56.1 innings for the Crosscutters, averaging an impressive 10.9 strikeouts and a whopping 5.3 walks per nine innings. Morales compiled an unsightly 5.23 ERA and a significantly better 3.82 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

Analysis: The youngster’s fastball registers in the low to mid 90s with the potential to add a little more gas as he matures. He’ll complement the plus-offering with a promising above-average slider that shows two-plane depth. He’ll also mix in a raw changeup that needs some work. Morales’ entering his age-19 season with one plus pitch and another that may get there as well, but his control has way – and ways – to go. If the changeup progresses up to an average third pitch – as well as several leaps forward in control – Morales has the look of a solid #3/#4-type arm. But, again, there’s a lot of risk though.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2022

______________________________________________________________________________

9. Enyel De Los Santos, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 60 45 45 55 55 45

Background: De Los Santos has been on the move quick a bit over the past couple of years: Seattle dealt the hard-throwing right-hander to the Padres as part of the Joaquin Benoit trade; and then San Diego shipped the Dominican-born hurler to Philadelphia straight-up for infielder Freddy Galvis. Regardless of all the organizational movement, De Los Santos turned in his finest season to date last year. Starring for the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs, the 6-foot-3, 170-pound righty tossed 126.2 innings with the International League club, posting a 110-to-43 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He compiled a 2.63 ERA, the best mark of his career, and a solid 3.78 DRA (Deserved Run Average). De Los Santos also made seven additional appearances with the Phils as well, throwing 19.0 innings with 15 strikeouts and eight walks. For his four-year professional career, he’s averaging an impressive 8.1 strikeouts and just 2.9 walks per nine innings with a 3.40 ERA.

Analysis: Despite the solid minor league numbers throughout his career – as well as his age vs. level of competition – De Los Santos’ ceiling is quite limited because of his lack of a quality third pitch. De Los Santos attacks hitters with a mid-90s fastball that touched as high as 97 mph early last season. His changeup, an above-average offering, provides a second swing-and-miss option. But his slider/cutter and curveball fall outside the bell curve in terms of big league breaking balls. The curveball is too loopy and easily discernible from his hand. And his slider/cutter lacks any type of depth or tilt. De Los Santos will likely work as a spot starter/multiple-inning reliever over the next couple of years, relying solely on the one-two combo of his fastball/changeup. One final note: De Los Santos’ curveball averaged 2,145 RPM during his big league stint – well below league average of 2,469 RPMs.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2018

______________________________________________________________________________

11. Mickey Moniak, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50/55 35/45 40 45/50 45

Background: In a matter of one season Moniak went from a widely recognized top prospect – with several publications having him listed in the Top 20 – to barely cracking any Top 100 lists. Of course, hitting a disappointing .236/.284/.341 has that effect. Moniak, the #1 overall pick in the 2016 draft, battled consistency issues as he moved from rookie ball all the way up to Low Class A two years. But the Phillies, encouraged by his first half surge, aggressively pushed the 6-foot-2, 185-pound center fielder up to the Florida State League. And his performance improved by leaps and bounds – though, to be fair, it certainly couldn’t have gotten worse. In 114 games with the Clearwater Threshers, the California native batted a respectable .270/.304/.383 with 28 doubles, three triples, and five homeruns. Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus measured Moniak’s performance as slightly worse than the league average mark.

Analysis: Here’s a snippet from last year’s Handbook:

“Here are his monthly OPS totals (beginning in April): .714, .773, .662, .566, and .410. Secondly, I wonder, personally, if he was simply overwhelmed by the mental side of the game. Moniak slugged .278/.335/.405 with a 113 wRC+ over his first 58 games, but cobbled together a hugely disappointing .197/.234/.280 triple-slash line with a laughably poor 48 wRC+ over his final 64 games.”

And I continued:

“So, despite the terrible 2017 production, Moniak is far from a lock to become a bust – especially if my suspicions about his second half collapse are correct.”

And Moniak’s production came roaring back. This time, though, there was a bit of an adjustment period. After batting a lowly .185/.209/.215 for the first couple of weeks, Moniak slugged a healthy .285/.320/.413 over his remaining 98 games. The former top pick isn’t destined to be a future star or a franchise cornerstone. But there’s enough of an offensive foundation to suggest a ceiling as a low-end starting center field on a non-contending team. The hit tool still profiles as an above-average skill. But the power and defense have been disappointing.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

______________________________________________________________________________

Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.