Playbook’s power matrix Who will have influence at the summit table — and who won’t

This week’s EU summit will test leaders’ mettle (and patience) on two issues threatening European solidarity: Brexit and the migration crisis. Here, POLITICO’s Ryan Heath plots the political power at play around the European Council table with this look at how much influence summiteers will have on the two topics. (For a handy printable version of the matrix, click here.)

Everyone likes a winner, everyone wants to be a winner. At EU leaders' summits, not everyone is a winner. That fact underpins this matrix. Some positioning is obvious, other choices will be controversial.

Having projected an internal Conservative Party split over the EU onto everyone in Europe, David Cameron is clearly the most powerful figure in the U.K. deal discussion. Without him, the reforms would not be on the table and without his support there can be no deal.

Angela Merkel, so used to pre-eminence, has to share it at this summit. Europe may well follow her lead, but it will be more hesitant than during the euro crisis and Grexit summits. Matteo Renzi has positioned himself at the center of both the U.K. and migration debates, by virtue both of his geography and his attention-seeking. By contrast, François Hollande is only getting vocal about his U.K. concerns at the 11th hour and is far from the action on migration, such is his fear of Marine Le Pen. Of course, if this summit tackled climate change, the military or the eurozone Hollande would occupy a more significant position. But like Mariano Rajoy, a lame duck with only a Gibraltar curveball to throw, Hollande is not in the power corner this week.

Poland’s Beata Szydło makes a strong showing as the leader of the eastern front, and a leader whose government is determined to throw its weight around. She scores high on both topics, unlike Viktor Orbán who, pound-for-pound, is an unmatched migration agenda-setter, and Alexis Tsipras who is at the frontline of the battle to save the Schengen zone but has burnt all the political capital he might have had to spend in the U.K. debate through the Greek bailout saga.

Mark Rutte and Lars Løkke Rasmussen are others who punch above their weight. Rutte has multiple plays: holder of the EU presidency, friend of Britain and bridge to Germany. He is also a migration hardliner willing to innovate with participation in the ‘core Europe’ group, and stimulater of debate about whether to establish a ‘mini-Schengen.’ Denmark, true to its history as a major ‘opt-out’ fan, loves what the U.K. is doing and sets the northern pace when it comes to being tough on refugees.

As for the EU leadership itself, Donald Tusk gets bragging rights for his shuttle diplomacy on Brexit, while desk-bound Jean-Claude Juncker’s summit role is already basically over. Cameron doesn’t trust him and he’s written himself into the sidelines of the migration debate by pushing national governments where they don’t want to go. The European Parliament’s Martin Schulz scored a coup by getting to the table for the U.K. debate, courtesy of Cameron’s unwillingness to address the Parliament and in recognition that the Parliament could block a deal. But he’s not even in the room for the migration discussion.

Others who need to be factored in include the U.K,’s oldest ally, Portugal, and its notably strident concerns about “discrimination” — it never looks good if your oldest ally doesn’t support you, which also gives a boost to Commonwealth countries Cyprus and Malta. Similarly, but on a bigger scale, Ireland’s Enda Kenny recognized the grave danger a Brexit would pose to the Irish peace process and economy. He won’t stay silent — the way he sees it he must land a deal to protect his re-election prospects and the country at large.

Countries that get moral support and sympathy by virtue of their roles in the migration crisis include Sweden, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia and Malta.

The awkward squad members to watch are Robert Fico of Slovakia and Bohuslav Sobokta of the Czech Republic, individually and via their participation in the Visegrád group.

Bulgaria and Romania would have a bigger voice in these discussions if they weren’t limited by special rights on migration and corruption surveillance procedures. Until that changes, they will always be in the bottom left quadrant.

Latvia’s Māris Kučinskis is far down in the power list also, both because his party is unaligned to a larger bloc and because this is his first summit.

Xavier Bettel also finds himself marginalized. He's in the unfortunate position of being only the second most opinionated Luxembourger in the room (after Juncker), he’s had the limelight recently via the Luxembourg presidency, he’s from a very small country, and while his country may benefit from companies relocated from Britain to the Duchy in the event of a Brexit, he dare not say it out loud.

This graphic was updated to correct the fact that Romania will be represented by President Klaus Iohannis and not Prime Minister Dacian Ciolos.