Al Case/ via Flickr

After former Cub Dexter Fowler terrorized opposing pitchers with his work atop the batting order last season, Chicago Cubs leadoff hitters have combined to slash .216/.312/.457 this season.

But never fear, because Anthony Rizzo is here. His unprecedented success as the Cubs leadoff hitter has been the feel-good story of the last three days for this team.

In Chicago’s 14–3 win against the New York Mets on Tuesday night, Rizzo hit in the leadoff position for just the second time in his professional career. His debut was a wild success: he slapped two hits and three RBIs in five plate appearances including the following home run on the second pitch of the game.

One night later Rizzo one-upped himself, hitting another dinger this time on the first pitch of the game.

However, Rizzo’s body of work as the leadoff man in that second game wasn’t nearly as impressive as the first. The home run above was his only hit in five at-bats, and he struck out twice and grounded out to second with the bases loaded in the top of the ninth.

Combined stats in the two games Rizzo has batted leadoff this season

It’s easy to get caught up in the fanfare of Rizzo’s hot start from the leadoff spot without applying proper context to the situation. Rizzo has had success in this role in a super small sample of plate appearances, but is he really a solid long-term fit in this spot in the lineup?

Why Batting Rizzo First Makes Sense

Even though his physical profile, position, and power numbers don’t scream traditional leadoff man, other aspects of his game make him well suited for this position in the batting order.

Rizzo has a patient approach at the plate, and ranks №6 in all of MLB with the 42 walks he has drawn thus far this season. He also doesn’t strike out a whole lot, boasting a 14.4 percent strikeout rate which FanGraphs saber-metricians consider above average. His solid two-strike approach where he chokes up on the bat obviously helps him limit his strikeout numbers.

In terms of his on-base skills, Rizzo has what it takes to be a leadoff hitter. His on-base percentage has exceeded .380 in each of the last four seasons. For context, highly touted leadoff man Dexter Fowler received showers of praise for his .393 on-base percentage a season ago with the Cubs. Rizzo’s on-base percentage was .385 last year and has been .390 this year. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is an absurdly low .237 this season despite a (just about) career average 31.7 percent hard contact rate. These statistics suggest that his slash line could be even higher if he had more luck.

In 2015, he stole 17 bases. For a big guy, he runs well and is solid with his instincts on the bases as well. He probably isn’t going to give a team 50 stolen bases per season, but he is competent enough on the base paths as to not be a liability.

In terms of makeup, Rizzo possesses many of the tools that a team would want from a traditional leadoff hitter.

Why This Whole Thing is Crazy

Are the Cubs wasting Rizzo’s talent by batting him at the leadoff spot?

This is a guy that has generated over 100 RBIs in the last two seasons and has smacked over 30 home runs in each of the last three seasons.

He needs to bat in a position in the order where his teammates are likely to be on base. That means putting him in the three or four hole in the batting order rather than relegating him to a table-setting role as a leadoff man.

Rizzo has slashed .250/.408/.571 this season with runners in scoring position, an epiphany on a team that has stranded the sixth-most runners in scoring position per game in MLB (3.62 per game).

When runners are on base or in scoring position, it’s Rizzo that the Cubs should want at the plate. These opportunities will dwindle if the Cubs continue to place him at the leadoff spot instead of further down in the order.

The Zobrist Factor

Ben Zobrist’s health could determine how long the Cubs continue to bat Rizzo at the leadoff spot.

The Cubs utility man missed the last two games with wrist soreness, and with Rizzo batting leadoff in both games the Cubs had to awkwardly thrust both Miguel Montero and Jason Heyward into the four hole.

Having a healthy Zobrist allows the Cubs to put Rizzo at the leadoff spot while having a natural fit at cleanup with the versatile veteran. Throughout his career, Zobrist has slashed .264/.357/.437 while in the cleanup role. His dangerous, switch-hitting bat protects Kris Bryant by disallowing pitchers to pitch around him in fear of having an extra man on base when Zobrist comes up to bat.

At this stage in their respective careers, neither Montero nor Heyward are dangerous enough at the plate to warrant four-hole honors. Kyle Schwarber has the physical tools and the pop in his bat, but his monumental struggles at the plate make him a poor candidate as well. Ian Happ is in the same boat as Schwarber, but to a lesser degree.

The lack of other suitable candidates for the four-hole position makes it imperative for Zobrist to get healthy soon if Maddon wants to continue to use Rizzo in the leadoff spot.

Watching Rizzo succeed in the leadoff spot has been a fun little quirk to a mostly unenjoyable beginning to the 2017 season. While Rizzo could remain effective in the leadoff spot for the remainder of the season, his talents are best served elsewhere in the order and the Cubs would benefit more if somebody else emerges as the solution to the current problem atop the order.

Paul Steeno spent 11 years pretending he was good at running. After hanging up the track spikes and officially becoming an elite hobby jogger, he decided to do something that he was actually good at: like writing about the Cubs. He is also a perpetually frustrated Chicago Bulls fan. This one time he got super lucky and ran 3:52 in the 1500 meter run.