Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson are the quintessential Very Serious People; they are mentioned in worshipful tones no matter how bizarre their remarks. And they were key players in the great hijacking of US policy debate over the course of 2010 and 2011, in which unemployment dropped off the agenda and the deficit moved front and center.

So, about 16 months have passed since both men predicted a US fiscal crisis within two years. Here’s how it’s going: the US just sold a bunch of long term debt for the lowest interest rate ever. A picture (I had to overlay two slightly different series because the constant-maturity data don’t go all the way back):

The truth is that predictions of am imminent fiscal crisis made no sense, and would have been considered irresponsible demagoguery if the people making the predictions weren’t so Serious.