When the United States Census Bureau begins the difficult task of counting American citizens next year, Alabama will have a lot on the line.

Alabama, thanks to slower-than-average growth, is one of a handful of states that could potentially lose a seat in the House of Representatives, according to a report published last week by the Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama.

A lost congressional seat would mean less representation for the state in Washington, one less electoral vote for presidential elections and a potential cut in federal funding, according to the report. Federal law dictates that House districts must be split up among the states every 10 years after the Census.

In 2010, Alabama ranked 23rd in terms of total population. By 2018, estimates showed Alabama fell behind South Carolina, dropping a spot to 24th.

The state’s population actually grew during that span. Alabama grew 2.4 percent since 2010, adding more than 100,000 people, mostly around a few cities and suburbs while the rural counties shrank.

But many other states, such as Texas and Florida, grew at much faster rates. As a result, according to an analysis from Election Data Services, between eight and 10 states could lose seats in Congress. Another seven are in line to add representation.

Alabama is barely growing. Meanwhile other Southern States, especially Texas and Florida, are booming. | Graphic by Ramsey Archibald

There’s not much Alabama can do to avoid losing a seat, according to PARCA. The state is unlikely to add significant population between now and the Census, so the most important thing Alabama can do is ensure that everyone who lives here is counted.

The state has started a campaign called Alabama Counts!, and pledged $1.24 million toward increasing participation in the Census, according to PARCA. The state’s participation rate was 72 percent in 2010, compared to a national rate of 74 percent.

But PARCA finds that increasing participation may not change the outcome for Alabama.

Along with congressional seats, Census data is also used in determining what areas receive different kinds of federal funding. PARCA cites a report by The George Washington Institute of Public Policy that shows 16 large federal programs use Census data to divvy up almost $590 billion in federal funds to states and other local governments. Alabama received $7.6 billion from these programs in 2015, according to PARCA.

Depending on your definition of the South, Alabama is one of just two Southern states in line to potentially lose a seat. The other is West Virginia, which is included in the Census definition of the South.

Mississippi has grown at a much slower rate rate than Alabama since 2010, but has a significantly smaller population. Mississippi has just four seats in the House of Representatives, and isn’t expected to lose one after 2020.

In 2018, Alabama had one congressional seat for roughly every 700,000 people, making it the 8th-highest represented state in the country. If it loses a seat, that number would fall to one representative for every 814,000 people - the 6th least in the country.

Going by this metric, other states that stand to lose a seat could see similar swings. West Virginia would move from one seat for every 600,000 people to one for every 900,000. On the other end of the spectrum, Montana could double their representation, going from one seat for over a million people to one for every 530,000.

The South as a whole may actually gain representation in Congress.

Florida and Texas are both booming. Florida could add two more congressional seats, while Texas could add three, according to Election Data Services analysis. That analysis indicates the South could see a net gain of four congressional seats after the 2020 Census, with North Carolina also potentially adding a seat.

New York could be the biggest loser, as the state could possibly drop two seats. California could also lose a seat, according to EDS.

Here’s a look at Alabama’s current congressional map. If Alabama is going to lose a seat, which one do you think will go?

Alabama currently has seven congressional districts, but that could soon change, pending the results of the 2020 Census. | Graphic by Ramsey Archibald

Do you have an idea for a data story about Alabama? Email Ramsey Archibald at rarchibald@al.com, and follow him on Twitter @RamseyArchibald.