Brandon Loomis

The Republic | azcentral.com

Water austerity could push mandated restrictions back

Arizona's plans rely on $45 million from feds

Effort would pay farmers, tribes for water to keep in Lake Mead

Arizona is closing in on a set of water conservation deals that leaders hope will prop up storage in Lake Mead, and forestall painful and chaotic shortages for at least a few years.

Federal water managers project a strong possibility — roughly 50-50 — that water levels in Lake Mead would drop enough in the next year or so to trigger a shortage that would curtail Arizona's take of the Colorado River through the Central Arizona Project aqueduct. The state draws about 40 percent of its water from the river.

A deep winter snowpack like what's begun building in the Rocky Mountains this year could delay the cuts, but experts agree the system is essentially overdrawn and bold action is necessary soon regardless of weather.

Arizona's answer is pre-emptive austerity.

Together with Nevada and California, the state is negotiating a deal called the Drought Contingency Plan. It would have Nevada and Arizona cut use of Colorado River this year, and would commit California to its first-ever surrender of some of its water if the reservoir plunges more in coming years.

Until now, California's senior rights to the river have insulated it from any reductions. Now, though, the states have agreed in principle to collaborate in everyone's interest.

"We're all committed to a path forward to protect the lake from crashing," said Tom Buschatzke, Arizona Department of Water Resources director.

Thriving with less water

A new report from Western Resource Advocates says the plan is an important step, but not enough in the long-term. Eventually — as soon as the 2020s — Arizona's cities will suffer from shortage unless they keep ramping up their conservation and add new tools, such as an ability to store unused shares of CAP water in Lake Mead, according to the group's report, "Arizona's Water Future."

"We have to figure out how to thrive with less water supply," said Drew Beckwith, water policy manager at Western Resource Advocates.

The states have not finalized the drought plan because first they must determine internally how to distribute the cuts. Arizona is close, but needs an expected infusion of federal cash to pay some farmers and tribes to temporarily reduce their share, Buschatzke said.

In Arizona's case, the early offering is 192,000 acre-feet of water that would be left in Lake Mead. That's enough to support a few hundred thousand households, though it would come largely out of agriculture and groundwater replenishment programs.

RELATED:As Lake Mead hits another record low, Arizona offers a plan

The idea is to keep Lake Mead from dropping to an elevation of 1,075 feet above sea level, which the states agreed back in 2007 would strip Arizona of 320,000 acre-feet. Without action now, that reality appears near.

The water level bounced around the 1,075-foot marker during last summer's irrigation season but has rebounded during the cool season, to above 1,083 feet on Friday.

As hard as that would be on central Arizona farmers, a failure to prevent a further 25-foot drop in the reservoir would trigger the loss of 400,000 acre-feet a year under the 2007 agreement, and a 50-foot decline would make it 480,000, or nearly a third of CAP's allowance.

Under the new proposed interstate plan, those losses creep higher at every level to prevent a potential total loss if the reservoir keeps plunging.

Farmers wary, hopeful

Since the turn of the 21st century, through extended drought and overuse, the reservoir's water line has dropped more than 100 feet.

So Arizona's internal negotiations have actually sought an even more austere commitment for this year than what the three states have negotiated. It's called DCP-Plus, denoting an extension of the interstate Drought Contingency Plan, and it seeks nearly 400,000 acre-feet from willing participants this year, in a regime that would spread that pain and keep some water flowing to central Arizona farmers.

Some of the water savings would come from canal operator CAP, as it slows its groundwater replenishment deliveries. Others would come from purchases of water from Arizona tribes and Pinal County farmers. A big chunk of it would come from the Gila River Indian Community's agreement to store earmarked water in Lake Mead for later use.

Pinal County's Maricopa-Stanfield Irrigation & Drainage District farmers are wary but pleased that the state is negotiating deals that would keep them from losing all of their surface water and reverting to groundwater pumping, general manager Brian Betcher said.

"There's beginning to be an understanding that it's in everybody's interest to remain above (elevation) 1,075," Betcher said.

"I'm going to assume we're going to get it fixed."

The Gila River Indian Community announced a deal with federal officials this week to keep 40,000 acre-feet in Lake Mead this year.

“Our agreement with the Department of the Interior is an essential step toward a plan for comprehensively addressing Arizona’s pressing drought problem," Gila River Gov. Stephen Lewis said in a written statement.

Avoiding worsening shortages

CAP customers such as Phoenix and Tucson understand that they'll likely face higher wholesale water rates, Buschatzke said, because the aqueduct's fixed costs won't change as the amount of water sales supporting them shrinks.

"It's a testament to the fact that people understand how important protecting the lake is," he said.

Arizona's envisioned actions alone — without help from other states — would drop the likelihood of mandated shortage to 15 percent next year, Buschatzke said. In combination with the interstate plan, they would hold the risk at 35 percent in 2019 and 2020.

Ultimately the fear is that a worsening shortage could drop the reservoir below 1,025 feet. That's below the elevations where states have agreed on the consequences, and it would invite radical and unpredictable rationing from the U.S. Interior Department.

MORE: 'Close' on this water deal isn't close enough

The state still needs legally binding commitments from a number of water users who have agreed in concept, but those deals appear imminent, Buschatzke said. First, water managers need $61.5 million pay some of those users for their water.

Gov. Doug Ducey's new budget targets $6 million to the effort over three years. The Department of Interior is expected to kick in $45 million, though securing it may take time as President Donald Trump's administration gets situated in Washington. The rest would come from Arizona entities committed to the program.

Negotiations continue, Buschatzke said, but, "we're on a great trajectory."