The north has always been a difficult region for Queensland’s usually Brisbane-based leaders to truly understand.

It is also where elections are often decided. Unlike New South Wales and Victoria, where the rural and regional communities make up a fraction of the larger vote, half of Queensland lives outside the citified south-east.

With such a decentralised population spread across such a large area – Brisbane is closer to Sydney than it is to Cairns – Queensland’s major political parties often struggle to connect with the north, let alone win it.

It has a reputation as a volatile electorate. When it swings, it swings big, proven by the sea of blue seats that were swapped to red in just three years. Its rocks, crops and tourism economy is one reason – business in the north relies on the weather and international trends, and neither have been kind in recent years.

With so many outside influences, state-based policies can struggle to have an impact. Cairns and Townsville watch as billions of dollars more in infrastructure is promised to the congested south-east, while the north waits for roads to be fixed from the latest natural disaster. It has made the region one of the most vulnerable to One Nation’s message and, together with central Queensland, the north has set up three-way contests that have left both majors struggling to nail down seats.

Having been at the mercy of uncontrollable elements – the commodity prices, Mother Nature – and having been spectacularly failed by a political saviour in the past, north Queensland also appears to be craving something else from its politicians.

Consistency

The fall of Clive Palmer – which also led to the closure of his nickel refinery, one of the major employers in the region – has proved to be one of the only buffers to One Nation’s message in the north. It has not completely dulled the anger towards the majors – Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten would both be useless campaign assets in the area, while Pauline Hanson would get a hearing, particularly in the smaller towns. But it has made them wary. North Queensland knows from experience there is no quick fix.

This campaign is no different. The region, with its 12 electorates, could help pave the way to victory for both parties – and it’s here that One Nation is having one of its strongest impacts.

I don’t care who it is, as long as it’s a majority Malcolm

Ayr, a small town with a population of about 8,600, sits in the electorate of Burdekin, where one of One Nation’s would-be leaders, Sam Cox, a former Newman government Liberal National party MP, is running against the LNP incumbent, Dale Last, and Labor’s Mike Brunker, a former mayor and local councillor.

It is the type of place where shops are closed on Sundays and the pharmacy has a local’s name across the sign. Cars stop before pedestrians hit the crossing and everyone goes by just the one name.

LNP leader Tim Nicholls buys tickets to a meat tray raffle in a Townsville pub. Photograph: Dan Peled/AAP

It’s also the type of place where the premier can stop for lunch and not be recognised. As Annastacia Palaszczuk sat with her staff and journalists for a quick counter meal, cattle and cane farmer Malcolm and his mate Terry barely gave her a second look. They may not have recognised the premier, but they know their politics.

“I don’t care who it is, as long as it’s a majority,” Malcolm says. He, like Terry, doesn’t want to give his surname because people are “antsy” about the election this time round and they don’t want to cause trouble.

“Just look at what is happening in Canberra – held hostage by the cross-bench,” he says. “No thank you. I just want policies, so I know what I’m getting. So I can plan.”

Malcolm mixes his federal with his state issues. He’s still angry over the live cattle export ban and state Labor’s tree-clearing laws, which stopped landowners from being able to clear vegetation without departmental authority. He also can’t understand why people are turning against coal and neither can Terry.

“I don’t understand what this country is going to do for work in 20 years,” Malcolm says.

“Me either,” Terry agrees. “Coal produces jobs, ongoing jobs. Renewables are built and then it’s done. Why are they trying to cripple us and hold us back? It makes no sense.”

“I’d hate to be a young bloke coming up,” Malcolm finishes. “It’s getting pretty hard.”

The LNP has promised to facilitate the federal government in building a coal-fired power station in the north. Labor stands against it and instead is pushing ahead with its plan of 50% renewables by 2030.

A table away, locals notice Brunker and stop to say hello. They don’t appear to recognise Palaszczuk until they are introduced. Malcolm and Terry continue without noticing.

“I think a lot of people in this area are going to vote One Nation because they are angry,” Malcolm says. “It’s been a rough few years and you can’t escape the billboards – they are everywhere. So One Nation come out here and they say, ‘we are going to hold the balance of power’. Well, I can’t imagine anything worse.” He is almost surprised to find himself uttering so many words at once.

“We’ve seen the balance of power with the feds,” he continues. “It’s no good. It’s a few people holding everyone to ransom. I just want consistency. The system is broken and it’s because none of the mobs seem to know what to do.”

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk makes a hi-vis visit to Townsville during the election campaign. Photograph: Darren England/AAP

In Townsville, the biggest centre in the region with a population that exceeds Darwin, the mood is no less sceptical.

Dave – a local on one of the job sites Palaszczuk stops to view as part of a “hi-vis hits” tour that takes in hard hat and fluro vest photo opportunities at a new road, stadium construction site and a port expansion – also wants consistency.

“Look, I didn’t know who I was going to vote for,” Dave says. “I’ve been a Labor man my whole life, but I just think they are changing who they are. So I wrote to One Nation. I have weird issues. I don’t think teenagers should be getting pregnant and going on welfare. It creates a bill the country can’t afford. But One Nation didn’t write back.

“Most of all, I just want politicians to be positive. People up here, they are just sick of it all. Sick of the politics. And that’s why a lot will vote One Nation, even if they don’t agree with it, because they wanna give the big guys a scare. But you know what we need more than that? Consistency. We need a majority government – not sure if they’ll get it though.

“But they all keep talking about electricity. I couldn’t give a shit about electricity, pardon my French. They are all just crapping on about it – just turn the air-con off for part of the day. I’m worried about insurance prices up here. They are ridiculous. Every time there is a storm, it gets worse.

“But mostly, I just want them to stick to what they say they’ll do. I think most people do.”

Three-way tussle

Labor is digging in up north. Of the five seats in far north Queensland, including the newly created electorate of Hill, Labor holds three and thinks it will hold at least two, as well as take back Cook, which it won but then lost to the cross-bench when its MP quit after failing to pay child support.



The Labor campaign has hit the north hard, although the LNP, helped by One Nation preferences, is nipping at its heels. The LNP leader, Tim Nicholls, and his team are expecting to do well in at least two Labor-held seats in north Queensland, where the three-way contest between Labor, the LNP and One Nation make the outcome difficult for the pollsters to nail down.

There are seven seats between Townsville and Cairns, including newly created Hill. Labor has switched tactics recently, attempting to link the LNP with One Nation in voters’ minds. “A vote for One Nation is a vote for Tim Nicholls” is said at every press conference. The LNP is still looking for its 47 seats. Labor thinks it has found them, if it can stave off One Nation.

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson is tipped to garner a lot of votes in Townsville and north Queensland. Photograph: Dave Hunt/AAP

The seat of Townsville takes in Palm Island, which is not as vulnerable to One Nation’s message. And the unions are taking their role in holding the north seriously, pumping in money to vulnerable Labor electorates, although it’s not thought to be enough to save the seats of Mundingburra and Thuringowa. The LNP has also been hitting the hustings hard up north. Nicholls has focused on youth detention, and law and order. Both are big issues.

But there has never been a magic-pudding issue for the north. It swings hard and it swings suddenly. Locals want Adani’s Carmichael coal mine to open. They remember the days when Townsville was a hub for workers who would keep a family of five fed and content on one income. However, they don’t seem overly exercised over the veto of the Naif loan.

I just want a major party running the state Carl Walker

“Nah,” says John Taylor, a Townsville local. “I mean, the mine would be great, but they should pay their own way.”

Henry Wilson agrees: “The mine would be great for the young blokes, get them into proper full-time work, get them some skills. But I don’t think we should pay for the rail line. Pauline [Hanson] has the right idea. If we pay for it, then we should own it. I’m sick of our politicians selling it all off. That’s when it all started to go wrong.”

Neither wants a minority government. Both are planning on voting for One Nation.

“I’ve tried both of the others out,” says Wilson. “Nothing changed. Now, I don’t want some crazy government where nothing gets done, but I don’t want them to take us for granted any more.”

While One Nation remains attractive, not everyone is convinced. Carl Walker – who grows mangoes and tomatoes, and has had “a few rough years, with all those natural disasters and storms” – just wants certainty. It has become a common refrain over the past few days. He is not sure who he will vote for yet, but it won’t be One Nation. And he’s hoping his neighbours follow suit.

“The cross-bench have no solid policies. The people that they are putting up to represent seats, we don’t even know who they are,” he says, as mangoes get packed behind him.

“What qualifications do they have to run our state? On the off chance they won power, could they run our state? The answer is probably not.

“I don’t know if people are confused or just angry, but if you support a party that has really nothing else than an agitator, you’re putting the state in jeopardy just to prove a point. It’s rubbish. It’s not the way to run a business, and like it or not, it’s a business.

“I just want a major party running the state and one who is not being dictated to by a minor party that’s only interested in the power and glory. I don’t want that.”