The #NeverTrump movement stumbles on, but the latest polling numbers suggest that its central justification for existing—that Donald Trump is a factional candidate within the Republican Party—is crumbling. The NBC News/Survey Monkey weekly GOP tracking poll, released Tuesday, has the front-runner hitting 50 percent in the national survey for the first time.

That’s a four-point jump from where the celebrity billionaire stood last week. His two remaining rivals, meanwhile, both slipped two points. It’s only one poll and none of those changes are outside its margin of error, so we shouldn’t make too much of Trump hitting the 50-percent mark. But taken with other recent surveys, it offers a helpful reminder that Republican voters can’t be so neatly divided between Trump and anybody-but-Trump. More troubling for those hoping to stop the Donald before he becomes the GOP nominee: The national polls also make it clear that Trump is the first choice for significantly more Republican voters today than he was back before the #NeverTrump movement began in earnest in early March.

Read more of Slate’s coverage of the GOP primary.