The results

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez gave two samples to the Voluntary Anti-Doping Agency (VADA), one on February 17th and one on February 20th. Both samples tested positive for clenbuterol. ESPN posted the letter sent by VADA, which stated Canelo’s Feb 17th sample came back with 0.6-0.8 ng/ml of clenbuterol, and the Feb 20th sample came back with 0.06-0.08 ng/ml of clenbuterol

The potential explanations for those results

There are two potential explanations for Canelo’s test results. The first is the explanation his camp has put forward; the positive test is the result of tainted meat, which is a serious and well documented issue in Mexico. In fact, a majority of players at a FIFA tournament in Mexico tested positive for clenbuterol due to tainted meat in 2011.

Results below 1 ng/ml, like Canelo’s, are commonly caused by contaminated meat. WADA itself said the following about samples from the Beijing 2008 Olympics: “All of the values were below 1ng/ml and therefore in the range of potential meat contamination cases.”

Dr. Daniel Eichner, head of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA)-accredited SMRTL lab, agreed that Canelo’s samples were within the range expected from tainted meat, stating:“These values are all within the range of what is expected from meat contamination. Further investigation is needed to make a final determination.”

The other potential explanation is that Canelo was doping with clenbuterol, but was lucky enough to be tested at a point in his cycle when the results also matched the levels from contaminated meat. This also fits the evidence.

The fact is, there’s no evidence that can’t be explained by contaminated meat, and no evidence against the contaminated meat explanation. That doesn’t mean contaminated meat is the only possible explanation, though.

How USADA would handle Canelo’s case in the UFC

Several UFC athletes have tested positive for Clenbuterol, and where those athletes have shown they were in a region with issues of contaminated meat, and where they had results consistent with contaminated meat, they received a finding of “no fault.”

A “no fault” finding essentially means the incident is not treated as a positive test at all, and no punishment is given. Brandon Moreno’s case, Li Jingliang’s case, Ning Guangyou’s case and others all ended with a finding of “no fault.” Absent any evidence that Canelo is lying, he would almost certainly have received the same result if the United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) was handling his case.

The problems with testing

The test used to detect clenbuterol in urine cannot distinguish between contaminated meat and deliberate ingestion, nor can any other scientifically-validated test. The test also isn’t able to distinguish between someone who ingested a lot of clenbuterol a week ago, and a small amount of clenbuterol a day ago.

The amount of clenbuterol in the body decreases over time, which is why Canelo’s results decreased by a factor of 10 over three days. When you ingest clenbuterol, it doesn’t stay in your body forever. Some gets used and some is excreted in urine. Over time, the amount that gets excreted decreases, since the amount in the body also decreases. This might sound obvious, but there are a lot of people who believe that one test being lower than a previous test somehow indicates doping. It doesn’t.

The hair test

There has been a push in some quarters to use the “hair test” in order to convict or clear Canelo. To hear it told, this hair test is the answer to every question. In reality, hair testing for clenbuterol isn’t used for a reason; it’s incredibly unreliable.

The amount of clenbuterol that shows up in hair varies massively depending on factors like hair color. One study gave a group of people the same amount of clenbuterol. One participant, a 27-year-old female, showed 23 ng/g of clenbuterol in her hair afterwards. Another participant, also a 27-year-old female, showed 161 ng/g of clenbuterol in her hair. They both took the exact same amount, but one had seven times as much in her sample. The suggested reason for this discrepancy? The women had different hair color. This hair color discrepancy was supported by the other data in the study.

That might sound ridiculous, but other studies have found the same thing.

Another study, with more participants, found that even among subjects with similar hair color, the variation is still large. Despite every subject having hair listed as “brown” or “dark brown”, this study also found significant variation:

The lowest detected amount of clenbuterol in the first segment of hair was 0.43 pg/ng, the largest amount was 4.76 pg/ng. Both of these subjects had hair classed as “brown,” and both took the same amount of clenbuterol in the same way. That’s a difference of an entire order of magnitude. A similar issue was found in the second segments, which ranged from a detected amount of 0.00 pg/ng to 0.86 pg/ng.

Tests that have results varying by so much even under a controlled conditions are not reliable tests. The idea that they would somehow give us the information we need to determine if Canelo accidentally or deliberately ingested clenbuterol is ridiculous.

Hear my Q&A on Canelo’s unfortunate mess in the attached player. It’s preset to play from the 45:40 minute mark.

Nevada’s history with drug testing

Based on the available evidence, a competent drug testing authority would ask Canelo about his meat consumption habits, check that his answers fit with his test results, and slap a finding of “no fault” on the incident. Unfortunately, Nevada’s history shows they’re not exactly a competent drug testing authority.The most infamous example of this is Nick Diaz’s run-in with the Nevada Athletic Commission (NAC) in 2015.

Nick Diaz gave three samples in five hours. The first and third samples went to the WADA-accredited SMRTL lab. Both came back under 150ng/dl threshold for THC-COOH.

The second sample, taken in between those two, went to Quest labs, which isn’t WADA-accredited, and let’s just say has a bit of a checkered history. This sample came back at double the threshold.

In other words, two tests at a WADA-accredited lab came back under the threshold. One in the middle at a non-accredited lab came back way over the threshold. Nevada tried to suspend Diaz for five years based on the single positive. They eventually overruled themselves and changed it to 18 months.As a result, while any competent drug-testing authority would let the fight proceed based on the evidence we have, it’s not at all clear what the NAC will do.

Debunking other claims

There have been plenty of misconceptions about drug testing, contaminated meat and clenbuterol on Twitter, so I’ve collected a few of them to quickly debunk:

Canelo can afford to buy good meat that isn’t contaminated

This has been a common refrain, but it fundamentally misunderstands how contaminated meat works. It’s not only cheap beef that’s contaminated. Contaminated meat isn’t sold and marketed as contaminated. There’s no way to know if meat is contaminated without testing it. There are no warning signs.

Canelo doesn’t even live in Mexico

Canelo was living and training in Guadalajara, Mexico when he gave these samples. He owns property in Mexico and is Mexican. There’s nothing strange about him being in Mexico.

If it was tainted meat he would have failed before

This claim neglects to consider just how terrible drug testing has historically been in boxing. For him to have failed before, three things have to happen.

1) He has to be tested out of competition while living/training in Mexico

2) The meat he eats has to be tainted, and not all meat in Mexico is

3) He has to be tested within a week or so of eating that tainted meat

Canelo tends to train in the US for the majority of his fight camps. That means the vast majority of his samples will be taken while he is living and training in the US. In addition, boxing doesn’t have a 365 day a year testing regime like USADA in place. Fighters are generally only tested during their fight camps.

Canelo can afford his own herd of cattle

This was an actual argument someone made. Honestly, it’s correct. If an athlete wants to avoid failing a drug test due to contaminated meat, all they have to do is buy a ranch and ensure the animals are raised without the use of steroids, ideally by raising the animals themselves.

They should also probably buy a gas chromatograph mass-spectrometry machine and hire someone to test every meal they buy at a restaurant or have at a friend or family member’s house, just to be on the safe side.

Simple.

This article was edited to add an extra source of information regarding hair testing.