By Michael Kates | Sep 22nd, 2020 | 6 mins









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Swing-State Odds: Biden Strengthens In Midwest, Arizona









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President Donald Trump was able to flip six states in the 2016 election that voted for Barack Obama in 2012 — Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio. For most of the summer Joe Biden had a substantial advantage in the swing states, but those odds have tightened, reflecting the tightening polls and overall odds .

Of the 16 key swing states for 2020, Biden is favored in 10 of them. Trump is favored in six, and he’ll need to flip at least one more in order to win a second term. If the odds hold in terms of actual vote, Biden would win the Electoral College 290-248.

Arizona, which two weeks ago flipped from Biden to Trump, has flipped back to the Democratic challenger. Trump still is favored in Florida and North Carolina, though those odds have tightened. If these numbers hold, Trump would still lose Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and that would prove decisive. Biden's odds in those three Midwestern states improved Tuesday, just slightly in Pennsylvania (-159 to -167) but a healthy jump from -177 to -230 in Wisconsin and from -230 to -265 in Michigan.

If Trump were to win Pennsylvania and the one electoral vote from Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, it would result in a 269-269 tie. However, if Biden were to win Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, he would win 270-268 in this scenario.

If there is a tie, the election would be sent to the house, where each state’s delegation receives one vote. Only the top three candidates receiving electoral votes may be considered, and a candidate must receive 26 votes. The House continues to vote until it elects a president. Currently, the delegations are 25 Republican, 24 Democratic and one tied (Pennsylvania).

Some of the tightening was expected as the campaign enters the final weeks, though the odds still run contrary to most post-convention polls. Remember, though, that odds can tighten because of money coming on one side and may not reflect the true state of the race.

CHECK OUT: Complete Odds In Key 2020 Senate Races

2020 Swing States Favoring Democrats

State Favorite Underdog Arizona* Democrats (-159) Republicans (+120) Pennsylvania* Democrats (-167) Republicans (+125) New Hampshire Democrats (-230) Republicans (+170) Wisconsin* Democrats (-230) Republicans (+170) Michigan* Democrats (-265) Republicans (+190) Nevada Democrats (-278) Republicans (+200) Minnesota Democrats (-360) Republicans (+230) Maine Democrats (-590) Republicans (+325) Colorado Democrats (-1000) Republicans (+500)

Virginia Democrats (-1000) Republicans (+550)

*-States Trump won in 2016; all odds via 888sport's UK-facing betting site; note that political betting markets are no available at legal US sportsbooks

2020 Swing States Favoring Republicans

State Favorite Underdog Florida* Republicans (-125) Democrats (-106) North Carolina* Republicans (-134) Democrats (+100) Ohio* Republicans (-240) Democrats (+175) Georgia* Republicans (-278) Democrats (+200) Iowa* Republicans (-335) Democrats (+225) Texas* Republicans (-500) Democrats (+325)

Odds updated September 22

Latest Swing-State Developments

Wisconsin Front & Center

The odds in Wisconsin are no longer the tightest of the three crucial Midwest states that will likely decide the 2020 election as Biden is now a -230 favorite. Trump won Wisconsin by just under 23,000 votes in 2016. He was in the state on Tuesday after the unrest and protests in Kenosha despite pleas from the Democratic governor that the president might exacerbate the strife.

A Morning Consult poll released on Sept. 1 showed Biden with a 52% to 43% lead among likely voters with a sampling stretching from Aug. 21-30.

Protests gripped the Milwaukee suburb after Jacob Blake, a Black man, was shot in the back seven times by police responding to a domestic disturbance call on Aug. 23. A police officer tried to prevent Blake from getting into his vehicle and was pulling on Blake’s shirt when he fired seven times into his back.

The president has been pushing law and order in his bid to get reelected. He appeared to defend a teenage supporter of his who has been charged with fatally shooting two men and wounding a third amid the demonstrations.

Trump suggested 17-year-old Kyle Rittenhouse, who said he traveled to Kenosha to protect businesses, was acting in self-defense, an argument also made by the teen's attorney. A widely-viewed video showing protesters trying to tackle Rittenhouse (and the teen firing on them) was reportedly taken after Rittenhouse had allegedly already shot a protester.

Biden has also spoken out on the violence, denouncing the looters and those traveling to Kenosha (and other cities) and further stoking tensions.

Joe Biden speaking in Pittsburgh amid racial tensions: "Rioting is not protesting. Looting is not protesting. Setting fires is not protesting. None of this is protesting. It's lawlessness. Plain and simple. And those who do it should be prosecuted" https://t.co/kcjmcEdc2N pic.twitter.com/sbnwg32vvr — CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) August 31, 2020

Ahead of the Kenosha trip, Trump said he would not meet Blake's family because they wanted lawyers to be present. Blake’s father told reporters he refused to play politics and didn’t want to be part of a “photo op.”

CHECK OUT: Daily Presidential Odds Tracker

Keystone State Might Be Key

There’s no mystery why Biden had his town hall in Pennsylvania. He’s from Scranton and he must win the state in November for a reasonable path to the White House.

Biden had surged as high as -560 in the state, but the gap has tightened and he is now -167in the state. Amid reports that the Trump team might be writing off Michigan (or at least scaling back advertising there), Pennsylvania presents an attractive target. Trump won the state by 44,000 votes in 2016.

Pennsylvania has also been targeted by a series of lawsuits, including over mail-in voting, satellite election offices and drop boxes. Democrats accuse Republicans of trying to make it more difficult to vote amid the coronavirus pandemic.

A Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruling last week was seen as a big win for Biden. It allowed for more ballot drop boxes, extended the deadline for absentee ballots (which must be counted if received within three days of the election) and booted the Green Party candidate off the ballot.

Last week, a Michigan court also ruled that the mass mailing of absentee ballots was allowed, and that ballots postmarked by Nov. 2 must be counted as long as they arrive before the vote is certified. Election results do not need to be certified until 14 days after the election.

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Top image via USA Today