How far-away elections might shape Texas political landscape

AUSTIN – Results from the odd-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia carried more than a little good news for Democrats nationwide, and that can’t help but lift the spirits of the long-out-of-power Democrats in Texas.

Voters in New Jersey, weary of bombastic outgoing Republican Gov. Chris Christie after eight years, handed that office to Democrat Phil Murphy, a rookie politician who was no doubt helped by the fact that Republican President Donald Trump’s approval rating in the state hovers around 30 percent.

Virginia, meanwhile, opted to keep the governor’s office in the Democratic column even though incumbent Terry McAuliffe wasn’t on the ballot because of term limits. Perhaps more significantly, Virginia voters put at least 15 more seats in its state house in the Democratic column. And if a ballot challenge goes their way, Democrats could add a 16th seat and take over the house for the first time since 1999.

The sobering news for Texas Democrats is that New Jersey has been bright blue during presidential election years dating back to 1992. And Virginia, reliably red from 1968 until 2004, went for Barrack Obama twice and for Hillary Clinton a year ago.

More: NJ Governor Election results: Phil Murphy defeats Kim Guadagno, will replace Chris Christie

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Texas, on the other hand, has remained solidly in the Republican column every presidential election since 1980, and the GOP is on a roll in statewide offices that would bankrupt Las Vegas: Undefeated for 20 years running.

But as filing for the primaries next March continues until Dec. 11, some in the Texas GOP are suggesting that the results in Virginia and New Jersey could carry some danger into the 2018 election cycle.

In a private memo that last week fell into the hands of the Houston Chronicle, a top Texas Republican strategist for president Gov. Greg Abbott and for former Gov. Rick Perry warned party foot soldiers not to take their decades-long winning streak as a given.

"It would be easy for us to say Texas is not Virginia,” wrote veteran GOP operative Dave Carney. “It would be easy for us to say the Democrats in Texas aren't that well organized. … That would be a huge mistake.”

At a meeting with party regulars in Waco, Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick rang a similar bell, according to local news accounts. Of the Texas Democrats, Patrick said, "they're coming after us."

“We have a tough election year coming up, and I urge you not to take anything for granted,” he added.

One year out from Election Day 2018, even with Trump’s popularity shaky in Texas, neither Abbott nor Patrick appears terribly vulnerable. The ominous messages from both camps could just be the manifestation of the shopworn political axiom, “Run scared unless you’re running unopposed.”

That’s a way to keep political donors writing checks and to keep campaign volunteers staffing phone banks and hammering yard signs into front lawns.

But just as likely, the warnings are aimed at the down-ballot races.

In the 2016 election cycle, a handful of statehouse seats and couple of congressional seats where the Republican vote has all but been taken for granted year after year voted for Clinton over Trump. The down-ballot Republicans fared OK, largely because they went unchallenged or underchallenged by the Democrats.

A couple of cases in point:

Moderate Republican state Rep. Sarah Davis won her affluent suburban district by 10 percentage points; the same voters allowed Clinton to pummel Trump by 15 points. Interestingly, Davis finds herself in a primary challenge and Abbott is backing her more conservative opponent. Democrats smell blood in the district.

Tea Party Republican state Rep. Matt Rinaldi of suburban Dallas County squeaked out a narrow victory by less than 1 percentage point. Clinton carried the district by 8 points. Democrats taste blood.

There are others, including one state GOP-held Senate district in Dallas that Clinton won by almost 5 points and two others – one in the Fort Worth area and one in Greater Houston – where Clinton came within a whisker.

It’s still early and Republicans have near 2-1 majorities in both state houses going into 2018. But the odd-year results in the two states back east and pocket of opportunities suggested by 2016 returns are enough to give Texas Democrats a bit of a lift.

John C. Moritz covers Texas government and politics for the USA Today Network in Austin. Contact him at John.Moritz@caller.com and follow him on Twitter @JohnnieMo.