Mr. Rumsfeld, who is making his second tour at the Pentagon, was considered one of Washington's most cunning operators. He even outmaneuvered Henry Kissinger -- the master of bureaucratic jujitsu -- on at least one occasion when the two men served in high posts in the Ford administration. Few people gave Ms. Rice, with her limited experience as a White House staff aide on Soviet affairs, much chance of competing with these titans.

With such grandiose predictions in place, it has not taken much change to create the impression of a tectonic shift in the balance of power. Mr. Cheney's heart problems, and his ardent embrace of the coal, oil and gas industries, seem to have hobbled him. Mr. Rumsfeld has done a lousy job of selling his military reform plans to the generals and admirals, not to mention to Congress.

Their image problems look minor compared with General Powell's. As secretary of state, he has not acted like the prime shaper of Washington's foreign policy or even as its leading diplomat on some important fronts, including relations with Moscow. That led Time magazine to picture him on its cover this week with the humiliating headline ''Where Have You Gone, Colin Powell?''

Ms. Rice, for her part, has clearly exercised more influence, and done so more visibly, than predicted. She has benefited from her role as Mr. Bush's foreign policy guide during the presidential campaign and her frequent access to the president at the White House, Camp David and Mr. Bush's Texas ranch. Ms. Rice, a former Stanford professor and provost, also gave Mr. Bush's foreign policy some of its core themes, including the emphasis on missile defense. She then went to Moscow to meet with President Vladimir Putin, a diplomatic mission usually reserved for the secretary of state.

It is premature to pick winners and losers. In the Nixon administration it was clear from the outset that Mr. Kissinger, the national security adviser, would eclipse Secretary of State William Rogers. In the Reagan years, however, Secretary of State George Shultz initially looked overmatched by ideologues like Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger, but eventually managed to help turn American policy toward the Soviet Union from confrontation to negotiation. At this stage, we wouldn't bet against Secretary Powell.