State

ARIZONA

Caucus dates

Democratic Primary on March 17 (Tuesday)

Republican Party not to hold primary in Arizona and all its delegates will commit to Trump.



Type: Democratic (closed)



Democratic delegates: 78 (67 pledged, 11 super)



Republican delegates: 57

Governor

Doug Ducey (Republican)

Senators

Kyrsten Sinema (D) and Martha McSally (R)

Representative: 9

Five Democrats: Tom O’Halleran (1st District), Ann Kirkpatrick (2nd District), Raul Grijalva (3rd District), Ruben Gallego (7th District), Greg Stanton (9th District)



Four Republicans: Paul Gosar (4th District), Andy Biggs (5th District), David Schweikert (6th District), Debbie Lesko (8th District).

Electoral college votes: 11

Donald Trump won all of them in 2016

How Arizona has voted in the past

Arizona became a part of the Union in 1912 as the 48th state. The Copper State has been a Republican bastion with the only exception in the form of Bill Clinton's win 1996, which came 48 years since the last Democratic victory (Harry S Truman in 1948).

Barack Obama lost both in 2008 and 2012 elections in Arizona though Hillary Clinton made it closer against Trump in 2016. Trump secured 48.7 percent votes as against Hillary’s 45.1 percent last time. Arizona has seen a steady rise in population over the past 50 years that has seen its electoral votes almost tripling since 1960.

From red bastion, Arizona is turning into battleground state

Arizona's voting patterns in some of the earlier elections suggest that the state could become a battleground in 2020. The state's power structure is evenly balanced between the Dems and the GOP and with the rising Hispanic population, the blue supporters could fancy their chances in the traditional red bastion.

Voting registration and turnout also make Arizona a state where both parties expect to do well. Latino voters' turnout in Arizona has grown 25 percentage points between 2014 and 2018.

The Hispanics have been at the receiving end of the anti-immigration sentiment during the term of Donald Trump and it could see a counter-narrative growing on Arizona's soil.

The Democrats are fast catching up with their Republicans in Arizona and going by the fact that the state got its first Democratic senator in recent years, there is some serious hope for them next year.



Age could be another factor that will make the Democrats happy. While the white non-Hispanics in the state — the GOP's main vote bank — are getting older, the Hispanic people are young and hence could have a bigger say in the election.

Arizona and 2020 presidential election

The Republicans in Arizona have canceled their primary this year since Trump is their biggest face at the moment.

The president has a net approval rate of one in Arizona and the Republican Party has made a strong focus on its organization in the state and said the president himself took personal interest to back the volunteers to reach out to every nook and corner of the state.



The state's Democrats said last November that the state will see a change in 2020 after both Trump and the state's Republicans broke their promises.

They said a year before that their fundraising spree also encouraged them and they prepared themselves well for the battle in Arizona. The outcome in the state will depend on how the Hispanics, independents and moderates vote in the 2020 election.



Pre-primary polling showed Joe Biden was leading Bernie Sanders in Arizona substantially. According to an OH Predictive Insights poll released early in March, Biden is having a 28-point lead while a Univision poll released more recently said he was having a 17-point lead.

In the Univision survey, however, Sanders — a candidate who is known to be popular among Hispanics as was seen in Nevada caucuses — is leading Biden by five points. Sanders lost the Arizona primary to Hillary Clinton by around 15 points in the 2016 election.

Trump is shown to be closely placed in comparison with both Biden and Sanders in pre-polls, even trailing in many. In the Republican primary in 2016, Trump won with 46 percent votes.

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