19:53

If Sir Bill Cash is to be believed, MPs have tonight voted to begin a process that will lead to a “constitutional revolution”. (See 10.59am.) It is impossible to predict quite where this will end up, but Cash’s claim seem hyperbolic.

MPs have voted to have more votes on Brexit. Wednesday’s will be the ninth big Brexit debate this year, and the first where supposedly the Commons is “taking back control”. Sir Oliver Letwin wants MPs to vote on paper, not in the division lobbies, on a wide range of Brexit options. But there are many reasons why this might not have quite the dramatic impact Cash fears. Here are six.



1) MPs have not yet been promised free votes on all, or even some, of the measures, but unless that happens the voting could end up just being a re-run of what has happened in normal votes on Brexit amendments. Some government ministers have said there is no point having indicative votes without giving MPs a free vote, but Theresa May sounds less keen. Speaking for Labour, Sir Keir Starmer implied this afternoon that Labour MPs would get free votes on some propositions but not others.

2) There is no guarantee yet that there will be a majority for any plan - although Letwin may opt for a voting system that eliminates unpopular options until one is left as the winner.

3) The government would not be obliged to accept any plan deemed most popular with MPs, and in fact May strongly hinted this afternoon that she would reject what many expect might emerge as the most widely-supported idea - staying in a customs union with the EU. (See 5.32pm.) Motions passed by the Commons are not binding on the government, and it is very hard for the legislature to force a PM to do something she does not want to do.

4) MPs may well use Wednesday’s debate to pass another motion freeing up more time for indicative votes at a later stage. In other words, the process could become self-perpetuating. This would worry ministers much more, particularly if it led to MPs trying to free up time to allow the Commons to pass legislation. But that could lead to ministers seeking a way of trying to retaliate to sabotage the Letwin process.

5) It is not obvious that all options will be on the ballot anyway. Interestingly one of the most high-profile supporters of a second referendum, Owen Smith, said in the debate this plan should be excluded at this stage. (See 9.19pm.)

6) The prospect of MPs trying to push May towards a softer Brexit could possibly help her, by persuading Tory Brexiters to back her plan in a vote on Thursday to prevent Brexit being watered down. There is no guarantee that this will happen, but it is not impossible.

That’s all from me for tonight.

My colleague Jedidaja Otte is now taking over.