Doubt the record breaking jobs figures? So does the ABS.

You've no doubt seen reports that 121,000 jobs were created in August. That's the Bureau of Statistics' best guess anyway.

No doubt it's a very educated guess - the bureau interviews around 60,000 people a month to ensure that's the case - but it's still a statistical estimate based on that survey.

What you may not have seen in most reports is that the ABS is only 95 per cent sure that the actual number of jobs created in Australia last month was somewhere between 63,400 and 178,600.

That's right, the magical number of 121,000 is just the midpoint of a range of estimates the bureau constructs from its survey, and seasonally adjusts based on historical experience.

The revered unemployment rate is no different - the ABS says there's a 95 per cent likelihood it's somewhere between 5.7 and 6.5 per cent.

Once you comprehend this, it's not so surprising that the unemployment rate can surge from 6 to 6.4 per cent one month, then plunge back to 6.1 per cent the next. The reality may be that it never actually went up or down at all, but the survey sample changed, or the people in the survey in those months don't reflect the general population very well.

The trend is your friend

'So why bother looking at the figures at all?' I hear many ask.

They may not be perfect, but they are still the nation's best guess at how many people are in work, out of work, looking for work or not engaged with the labour market at all.

The issues with seasonal adjustment - which played a significant role in why the jobs gain in the traditionally weak employment month of August was so very large, record breaking in fact - explain why the ABS publishes a trend figure, and why commentators and their audiences should pay more attention to it.

The trend figure smoothes out these monthly jumps to give a more balanced picture of which direction employment is heading in.

Since August last year that trend unemployment rate has slowly crept up from 5.7 to 6.2 per cent and, even when the seasonally adjusted rate has fallen, the more stable trend hasn't followed.

Most economists think that trend reflects the true state of the labour market - some new jobs being created, but not quite enough to soak up Australia's strong population growth.

So don't be too shocked about the monthly movements in headline unemployment - that's all they are, just a good headline for us economic journos who struggle to find something that will pique the interest of potential readers in what can be very dry subject matter.

Make sure you read the details of the article and find out what the trend is doing, and what other indicators and analysts are saying.

And if the journalist or commentator you're reading doesn't mention the trends at all, then it may be time to find another who does.