The Race Within a Race

Mr. Trump is favored on Tuesday in every state except Texas, but the battle between Mr. Cruz and Senator Marco Rubio for second place is an important one. If one of the freshman senators were to emerge as a decisive runner-up, he could make the case that the other should exit the race to give the party a better chance at stopping Mr. Trump.

But the results might not lend themselves to such a clean outcome. Mr. Cruz and Mr. Rubio could trade second-place finishes across the map. And even if Mr. Rubio were to capture second place in all 11 states, Mr. Cruz could still win Texas outright and hold that victory up to argue that, as the only other candidate to beat Mr. Trump and win a state, he has every justification to go forward.

But after emphasizing the importance of March 1 to his campaign, and investing so much in winning support from evangelicals, Mr. Cruz would be in a rough spot if he were to finish behind Mr. Rubio in such Bible Belt states as Alabama, Oklahoma and Tennessee.

There is also pressure on Mr. Rubio to find a state he can win Tuesday, and Minnesota may represent his best opportunity.

Texas, Rich in Delegates and Symbolism

With 155 delegates, the Lone Star State is the big enchilada (or, keeping with current Texas trends, the big breakfast taco) of Super Tuesday. But even more important, it is a crucial test for Mr. Cruz, who would face intense pressure to withdraw from the race if he were to lose.

And the Texas prize for Mr. Trump is found as much in its symbolism as in its delegate distribution. Not only is the deep-red state a citadel of the national Republican Party, but it is also home to George W. Bush, Rick Perry and Mr. Cruz.