Until recently it was fairly easy to dismiss China’s space program. Yes, China is one of just three nations to launch humans into space, but its technology has always seemed highly derivative of Russian spaceflight architecture. And when a recent article raised the question of whether China might develop reusable rocket technology, one Ars reader offered an amusing yet perhaps not entirely untruthful response: “That depends on how good SpaceX's IT security is.”

After Saturday’s launch of the Long March 7 rocket from the new Wenchang Satellite Launch Center, however, such skepticism appears to be increasingly unwarranted. Although largely ignored by the Western world, the Chinese launch marks something of a defining moment for the giant of Asia, a moment when China firmly staked its position as one of the world’s great space-faring nations. More than that, it took a step toward equaling, or perhaps even surpassing, NASA one day.

The Long March 7 rocket does not immediately threaten NASA or the US launch industry, of course. With the capability to heft 13.5 metric tons to low-Earth orbit, it is roughly on par with the Falcon 9 and the Atlas V launch vehicles. And the Tiangong-2 space laboratory China intends to launch later this year is but a shadow of the International Space Station.

Nevertheless it is the long-term vision that matters, along with China’s willingness to sustain and execute that vision. China’s goal appears to be the landing of taikonauts on the Moon in the early- to mid-2030s, and if early robotic missions to the lunar surface are any indication, the country wants to eventually develop a colony and harvest resources there.

Saturday’s launch represented a first step toward that goal. With a single mission the country debuted a new rocket and YF-100 engine, transitioned to less hazardous liquid oxygen-kerosene fuels, and opened a new spaceport in the southernmost part of the country where launchers can gain more speed due to the Earth’s rotational velocity.

“The launch of Long March 7 shows them stepping into the modern era if you will,” Leroy Chiao, a former NASA astronaut and commander of the International Space Station, told Ars. “The message is the same that it’s been for some time. They’re in this game to stay. They’re making long-term plans to stay in space and expand their presence in space. For NASA and the United States I’m afraid that we’ve been resting on our laurels for so long that we’re going to lose our leadership in human spaceflight.”

Both of Chiao’s parents were born in China before moving to the United States, and he speaks Mandarin Chinese. Since his retirement from NASA in 2005, Chiao has tracked the progress of China’s space program by visiting its facilities and meeting with its taikonauts.

First, a station

China has, for a number of years, sought to become part of the international consortium that operates the International Space Station, and NASA and the other partners would like to admit them. But some key Republicans in Congress have blocked China’s participation, expressing concern about the loss of key spaceflight secrets.

Chaio said he believes China would still like to participate in the station, but the country has also decided to forge its own path to space regardless. To that end China has pressed ahead with plans to launch its own space station by the early 2020s and has sought to position it as a beacon of international cooperation. Earlier this month, the China Manned Space Agency signed an accord with the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs to invite other nations to conduct experiments on China’s space station and to provide flight opportunities for astronauts from those countries. China has previously reached agreements with Russia and the European Space Agency to potentially fly aboard its station. Although there are no firm plans yet for those flights in the 2020s, some European astronauts have begun to learn the Chinese language, according to reports.

“Space exploration is the common dream and wish of humankind. We believe that the implementation of the agreements will definitely promote international cooperation on space exploration and create opportunities for United Nations Member States, particularly developing countries, to take part in, and benefit from, the utilization of China’s space station,” said CMSA Deputy Director General Wu Ping.

For its part, the United States plans to fly the International Space Station through 2024 and may potentially extend its lifetime through 2029. After that time it’s plausible that China will have the major hub of international activity in low-Earth orbit. NASA has said it is moving beyond low-Earth orbit in the late 2020s to transition to a deep-space exploration program, first with missions to the vicinity (but not the surface) of the Moon, followed by human crews being sent to the Martian system in the 2030s. However there are significant questions about the viability of this long-term strategy given NASA’s present funding and approach.

Authoritarian systems of government have an advantage over democracy in that carefully planned programs can be implemented over years—decades—of development with sustained funding and eyes on a long-term goal. That benefits China’s space program, whereas NASA and its exploration goals undergo presidential reviews every four to eight years, with constant smaller changes from Congress along the way. Absent a major, overarching goal that everyone in Washington DC buys into and year-to-year budget variations, it’s hard to get that much done. (This is primarily why NASA has struggled since the end of the Apollo program.)

Then, the Moon

Chiao said the scenario that should concern US policymakers is one in which NASA will muddle along with its “Journey to Mars” for a number of years before the program is canceled because it is found to be too expensive or faces too many delays with the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft. In the meantime, China will offer a favorable alternative to NASA’s current partners, who have already told US space officials they prefer missions to the lunar surface before going on to Mars.

As part of the Long March 7 launch preparations, Chinese space officials spoke of the next evolution beyond the current booster technology toward a Long March 9 vehicle, a heavy lift rocket in the class of the Apollo program’s Saturn V rocket. This powerful rocket likely remains about 15 years from its debut, but that timing is consistent with the Chinese desire to begin sending humans to the Moon in the early 2030s.

“If everybody starts heading toward the Moon, what are we going to do, fly a few Orions around cislunar space?” Chiao asked. “If we don’t go back to the Moon and we try to go directly to Mars, my fear is that it will get canceled because it’s too expensive and too soon, with a price tag that’s too high and with too long of a time frame for the public and Congress.”