Five Reasons To Say Bye Bye to Goblin Guide

I'm sure that everyone is excited about Modern Masters 2017. The reprinting of the Zendikar Fetch Lands as well as Goblin Guide simply means you'll be able to assemble Boros Burn for half the cost.

However, in cruel irony, the moment that Goblin Guide gets reprinted is also the moment where Boros Burn is at its weakest, if not its deathbed.



As briefly mentioned in Lee Shi Tian's article last week, he successfully stopped Zen Takahashi from playing Boros Burn at Grand Prix Brisbane. Everything panned out well and both of them ended up making the Top 8. However, what are the top reasons that Boros Burn is dead?



As someone who has been playing Boros Burn ever since Pro Tour Fate Reforged in 2015, I'd like to weigh in on why I need to find a new deck for future Modern events. Here's looking at you too, Yam Wing Chun. We might have been "Burn buddies" for the longest time, but I strongly encourage you to put your Goblin Guides away.

What changed over the last couple of years?

Reason #5: Kaladesh Fast Lands Cause Players to Take Less Damage



For the longest time in Modern, the mana bases have largely remained the same, with allied color pairs getting a slight edge.





For example, Celestial Colonnade, Creeping Tar Pit and Raging Ravine have existed long before Shambling Vent and Wandering Fumarole. Grove of the Burnwillows also contributed in making Red-Green decks such as Tron, Eldrazi and Lantern Prison painless. The ability to use Blackcleave Cliffs to cast both Inquisition of Kozilek and Lightning Bolt on turn 1 also saved Black-Red players a lot of damage.





This meant that any color combination requiring enemy color pairs had a slightly more painful mana base since they were forced to crack Fetchlands early to find Shocklands.

This is good news for Boros Burn players, since their main goal is to knock down their opponents from 20 to 0. However, the release of Kaladesh and the enemy cycle of Fast Lands have changed things significantly.



Inspiring Vantage is also the "mirror breaker" and I believe 2 or 3 copies of it is a correct number in Boros Burn, assuming that anyone still wishes to play it. As a matter of fact, I did run three copies of it during an RPTQ in Madrid, and not having to Lightning Bolt yourself in the mirror often makes the difference.



However, with everyone taking less damage in general, things don't look good for Boros Burn players.

Reason #4: Your Good Matchups Are No Longer Existent

A lot of decks have received upgrades in the last 2 years and what used to be good matchups for Boros Burn no longer exist anymore. We'll just use Lantern Control as a case study.





The biggest winner is probably Lantern Prison, who benefited greatly by replacing Llanowar Wastes with Blooming Marsh. The difference between taking a couple of damage to cast Ancient Stirrings and Inquisition of Kozilek and not taking those two damage is a huge deal.

Ever since Grand Prix Oklahoma 2015, there has been 14 Modern Grand Prix, of which three took place during the Eldrazi Winter and approximately half of them took place after Kaladesh. Lantern Control won 2 of these Grand Prix, which is amazing considering that Lantern Control is never more than 5% of any random metagame. Kaladesh also gave them Inventors' Fair, which is really a nightmare if you're trying to race Lantern Control.





Another example is how Infect is no longer around for you to prey upon.

Now, a lot of dedicated Infect players will argue that the matchup is entirely winnable, but you really need a good draw for that to happen. How is it possible for a twelve-creature deck to have a good matchup against a burn deck that is stacked with, well, burn spells? It just doesn't make sense and defies logic. Three months ago, Infect was a great deck but now that it's gone, so are the good matchups for Boros Burn.

Instead, you are faced with a sea of black decks which gained two cards...

Two very important cards...

Reason #3: Fatal Push, The Premium One-Mana Removal



It's very easy to play the blame game when a card as efficient as Fatal Push is added to a new format.





While Black mages have always had access to Disfigure, it was never quite as versatile as Fatal Push. Black-Green strategies have existed forever but they have always lacked the "one mana removal spell" and sought to fill the void by adding additional copies of Inquisition of Kozilek and Thoughtseize.

Even though Jund was the "go to" deck during that time, I didn't even want Red. I didn't want my mana base to hurt myself. I was already playing Thoughtseize and Dismember. I did not need more self mutilation. Losing Lightning Bolt, I bumped up the number of discard spells to interact with my opponents early.

I also went with not one, not two, but three Slaughter Pacts. I sacrificed Anger of the Gods for Drown in Sorrow, and I sacrificed Shatterstorm for Creeping Corrosion. I even went with 3 copies of Twilight Mire.

I simply didn't want to take damage, because Goblin Guide was actually "a thing" in Modern in 2014.



Wouldn't it be nice to have Fatal Push in this deck back then?



BG Rock (PTQ July 2014) (Modern - Others) Gallery View Modern by Chapman Sim Add All to Cart

Mainboard (60)



Forest

2 Marsh Flats

3 Overgrown Tomb

2 Swamp

4 Tectonic Edge

4 Treetop Village

3 Twilight Mire

1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

4 Verdant Catacombs

25 land



3 Courser of Kruphix

4 Dark Confidant

3 Scavenging Ooze

4 Tarmogoyf

14 creature



25 land14 creature Abrupt Decay

2 Dismember

4 Inquisition of Kozilek

4 Liliana of the Veil

1 Maelstrom Pulse

2 Slaughter Pact

4 Thoughtseize

21 other spells



21 other spells Sideboard (15)



2 Creeping Corrosion

2 Drown in Sorrow

1 Golgari Charm

1 Grafdigger's Cage

1 Nature's Claim

1 Slaughter Pact

1 Thrun, the Last Troll

3 Fulminator Mage

2 Obstinate Baloth

1 Scavenging Ooze

15 cards



15 cards

With these changes, I used the above decklist to win a PTQ in July 2014 at Surabaya. This event took place during a different era, and it was during a time where Splinter Twin was legal, but the truth is irrefutable. The Black gains have gained a lot of power with the addition of Fatal Push and you now have a one mana removal spell that also kills Tarmogoyf 100% of the time.



Bottom line.

Fatal Push will be played in most Black decks going forward and your Goblin Guides are just worse now.

Reason #2: Boros Burn Cannot Beat Collective Brutality



With the Modern metagame having a facelift after the banning, the community is naturally actively discussing how things will look like after the dust has settled. In particular, this highlights one of my biggest fears as a Boros Burn player.



Now, one thing I need to admit.



I have NEVER beaten Collective Brutality.

NEVER.

Not once.

Ever since Eldritch Moon, I've just been losing to this card over and over and over again.

It is a card that kills Goblin Guide, gains you 2 life and takes out Boros Charm from my hand.

Goryo's Vengeance decks use it a tool to buy time, as well as to discard Griselbrand or Emrakul, the Aeons Torn. Abzan decks play Collective Brutality alongside Inquisition of Kozilek, Kitchen Finks and Siege Rhino. Death's Shadow players use it to check clear before going all-in on their combo.



This card is literally everywhere. And as Dickmann says, it is not so much that you lose to Collective Brutality as a singular card, but the decks that run Collective Brutality now have this one card that buys them so much time to do what they really want to do. And even if they don't, a two mana card that rolls together creature removal, life gain and discard effects is not something the Boros Burn player wants to see.

And where this card goes, I will never set my Goblin Guides loose ever again.

Which means, never, because Collective Brutality ain't going away.

Reason #1: Death's Shadow Is Just Vastly Superior

There were fears that Fatal Push would also result in the death of Death's Shadow. There was no doubt that Fatal Push would have kept Infect in check, but ever since they lost Gitaxian Probe, Infect players weren't feeling comfortable enough to want to go all-in without that information.

However, Death's Shadow, for some reason, became the best creature deck in Modern, allaying fears that it would have been dead. The addition of Traverse the Ulvenwald, Kolaghan's Command, Renagade Rallier and Liliana, the Last Hope ensures you'll always be able to recur Death's Shadow unless it is exiled, and unlike Goblin Guide, Death's Shadow usually kills in just two hits.

What this indicates is the format shifting away from "fast beatdown decks" into "grindier decks" so why should Boros Burn be any different? Except that you cannot transform Boros Burn into a "grindier deck".



Death's Shadow Aggro is still capable of quick kills but if you can't manage it by turn 3, you can still win it 5 turns later because you have the resources to also play the late game. It's simply more resilient. If your strategy revolves around casting a creature on turn 1, rather than it being Goblin Guide, many others are more willing to roll the dice with Death's Shadow instead.

Case in point, this is what Magnus Lantto has been running on the Magic Online Leagues to excellent results:

Traverse Suicide (Modern - Others) Gallery View Modern by Magnus Lantto Add All to Cart

Mainboard (60)



Blood Crypt

4 Bloodstained Mire

1 Godless Shrine

2 Overgrown Tomb

3 Polluted Delta

1 Stomping Ground

1 Swamp

4 Verdant Catacombs

17 land



4 Death's Shadow

1 Renegade Rallier

4 Street Wraith

4 Tarmogoyf

13 creature



17 land13 creature Abrupt Decay

1 Collective Brutality

3 Fatal Push

4 Inquisition of Kozilek

3 Kolaghan's Command

1 Liliana, the Last Hope

4 Mishra's Bauble

2 Tarfire

3 Temur Battle Rage

4 Thoughtseize

4 Traverse the Ulvenwald

30 other spells



30 other spells Sideboard (15)



1 Ancient Grudge

1 Collective Brutality

1 Fatal Push

1 Kataki, War's Wage

1 Liliana of the Veil

3 Lingering Souls

2 Surgical Extraction

1 Terminate

3 Fulminator Mage

1 Ranger of Eos

15 cards



15 cards

Conclusion





This is pretty much my tribute to Goblin Guide and as much as I love the updated artwork, I will not be acquiring copies of them. I do hope that one day I will have a chance to pick up this deck once again in a competitive setting. Until then, I might just be hopping onto the Abzan bandwagon and ride some rhinos.

Good luck with Modern Masters 2017, I can't wait to see what else is being reprinted!

Regards,

The Traveling Philosopher,

Chapman Sim

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