This was going to be the year that Sara Hughes and Summer Ross challenged American beach royalty for Olympic places. They had a lot going for them heading into the all important qualification period. 2018 had been a strong year for them and the American greats had yet to dominate with new partners. Sadly, after some decent results and an excellent run in Hamburg, Summer’s back just wouldn’t cooperate. And just like that, their chances to qualify for Tokyo together were through. Sara was healthy and ready to keep going, but she had nobody to play with. Time and the FIVB tournament schedule continued to march relentlessly by.

Sara Hughes adjusts her glasses in Hamburg while her Olympic plans were on track. Many months later she has set her sights on Lauren Fendrick and a last ditch effort to make Tokyo. Photo by FIVB.

Last summer, Lauren Fendrick was experiencing very different emotions. In early June, she gave birth to her first child. The thrill of starting a family was coupled with a desire to get back on the beach and play as soon as possible. Initially, she had hoped to make it back into playing shape by Hamburg, but that wasn’t as easy as she had hoped. Fendrick is one of America’s best blockers and represented the United States at the 2016 Olympics in Rio. She was determined to try for another Olympics, but who could she partner with and could she get back into peak shape in time? As other teams gathered points and time and tournaments marched relentlessly by, she must have thought her chances for 2020 were finished.

Lauren Fendrick has worked extremely hard to get into top physical condition and make a run for Tokyo with Sara Hughes, one of America’s best young beach talents. Photo by FIVB.

But maybe not. One of America’s best young defenders and one of its most successful blockers have found each other. They are going to attempt a miracle run. But can they really make it to Tokyo at this late stage? Let’s do the math.

Yes, mathematically it’s possible

Obviously, it is possible from a pure numbers perspective or they wouldn’t even be considering it. Between now and June 15th, when the Olympic qualification period ends, there are 3 three-star tournament, 8 four-star tournaments and the big Rome five-star remaining. There are also a few two-stars including one in Cambodia next week that they have entered. They must compete in 12 events and be the second ranked American team in order to play in Tokyo. That means catching Kerri Walsh Jennings and Brooke Sweat who currently have 6,960 points and likely to have more by June.

In theory, they could pick up 12 first places and walk into Tokyo as gold medal favorites with over 9,000 qualifying points. Since that isn’t realistic, what do they need to do?

Points by FIVB World Tour Star Rating Rank World Champs 5 star 4 star 3 star 1st 1600 1200 800 600 2nd 1440 1080 720 540 3rd 1280 960 640 480 4th 1120 840 560 420 5th 960 720 480 360 9th 800 600 400 300 17th 640 480 320 240 25th N/A 360 240 180 33rd 320 240 160 120 41st N/A 60 40 30

Throw out the recipe

Teams with Olympic ambitions all had the same approach to qualification. Play in as many tournaments as needed. Only the top 12 will count, so drop the worst results. Bed tournaments get erased with time, so don’t panic, just play better in the next one. Also, it is essential to play in the World Championships in Hamburg and all the five-stars where the points are huge. Even a 9th or 17th in one of those can take the pressure of the need to medal in all the three and four-stars. That is what the other teams got to do, but obviously that approach won’t work for Sara and Lauren. They have to come up with their own recipe.

Play in every event

They don’t have the luxury of missing any tournaments. That means Lauren is going to face a huge challenge of traveling across the globe for several months before her daughters first birthday. She is also going to have to stay healthy after not playing a competitive match since 2018. Those two challenges have definitely been considered and Lauren is ready to give it a try.

Work life balance will be a challenge for Lauren as she keeps her focus on a return to the Olympic spotlight. Photo by FIVB.

More importantly is they have to qualify for every tournament. Remember that if more than four American teams enter a tournament, only three make it directly to the main draw. The rest of the teams have to fight it out in a country qualifier tournament and then win two qualifier rounds. This is decided based on tournament entry ranking points (for more information, check this out). For the tournament in Cambodia, Sara and Lauren have 1790 entry points. That is great for a two-star, but would make them the 5th ranked American team in any tournament that all the top teams want to compete in. That is likely to happen when teams sign up for the four-star in Cancun. If ranking points don’t change much before then, they will be playing a mini tournament along with Kelly Claes and Sarah Sponcil just for the right to play in Mexico. A defeat there would be a huge blow to their Tokyo plans.

Tough qualifiers like that will continue week after week until they are in the American top three. Qualifiers mean less time to recover, less time with the baby, less time to train together and review film, etc. They must get into the USA’s top three with a few gold medals in three-stars early on to avoid the stress.

Country qualifiers are often played in Southern California on beaches without any stands or fanfare. The tiny crowds that gather get to witness matches that are as competitive as a five-star final. If you are nearby, I’ll share the times and locations of these matches on twitter when I hear about it. Matches between Fendrick & Hughes, Claes & Sponcil, Larsen & Stockman and Welsh Jennings & Sweat will be epic in the run up to Tokyo.

No cancellations

One unfortunate fact of life in recent years is that some tournaments get unexpectedly canceled. That is an inconvenience for everyone, but for Sara and Lauren it would be a disaster. Most worrying are the two four-star and one three-star events scheduled in China starting in April. The corona virus outbreak is causing fear and uncertainty around the world as the severity of its impact on individuals who contract it and whole communities is still being determined. Our concern about the coronavirus goes far beyond beach volleyball, so I don’t want to trivialize it at all. If the travel restrictions in and out of China are in place next April, volleyball will be the last thing on our minds. Even so, the cancellation of three events would make Sara Hughes and Lauren Fendrick’s task impossible.

Masks and travel restrictions are everywhere in China this month. Will a cornavirus outbreak threaten the FIVB World Tour events scheduled for China this spring? Photo used by Creative Commons License. Original source: YouTube.

Sara and Lauren can’t focus on things that are out of their control, so we won’t either. Let’s return to what they can control in order to make it to Tokyo.

Crush your old friends dreams

After winning every country qualifier, they will face Americans in FIVB main draws, too. Lauren played with Brooke Sweat in the Rio Olympics and was Sarah Sponcil’s partner when the young defender broke into the pro ranks. For Lauren to achieve her dreams, she’ll have to crush theirs. Of course Sara was a long time partner of Kelly Claes, too. When Sara and Lauren face American teams in the group stage or elimination rounds of World Tour events, they have to win. If their American rivals finish higher than Sara and Lauren more than a handful of times, they won’t make Tokyo. Losing to Brazil, Germany or Canada in the later rounds of a four-star tournament would be disappointing, but not devastating to their chances. Losing to Kerri and Brooke, on the other hand, would represent an enormous setback.

Sara Hughes lays out on defense in Hamburg. She’s ready to leave everything on the sand to achieve her Olympic dream. Photo by FIVB.

No early exits

Fendrick and Hughes don’t get the huge points of the World Championships or three five-star tournaments from last summer. At those events a 17th place finish is equal to a decent four-star finish. A five-star 9th is the same winning a three-star. Their rivals stockpiled points at the big events, even when they didn’t play well. Fendrick and Hughes will have to be near perfect in the smaller tournaments to make up for it. To make that point more concrete, Brooke and Kerri finished 17th in Hamburg and got 640 points. Four out of Kelly and Emily’s best results points wise came at a five-star or Hamburg. Their rivals didn’t need to make the semi’s to score big points, Sara and Lauren do.

Pay attention to the averages

Over the coming months the best way to track the chances of Sara and Lauren is by watching the averages. For the other American teams, we divide their best twelve finishes by twelve. Here’s what their scores look like.

Alix and April Kerri and Brooke Kelly and Sarah Kelley and Emily 730 580 553.33 506.67

Based on these numbers, anything less than a three-star gold (600 pts), a four-star bronze (640 pts) and a five-star ninth (600 pts) will not be enough. Even winning the upcoming two-star won’t get them on the pace that they need.

It will have to be nonstop success and celebrations this spring if Sara Hughes is going to do the impossible. Photo by FIVB.

High drama or quick fizzle

If they make it to Tokyo, it will be the most remarkable story of this quad. They will have to seal their place with a huge result in Rome. Could there be anything more dramatic than that? On the other hand, if they get knocked out of even one country qualifier or take a 17th place in a four star in March or April this partnership may not make to summer.

Whatever happens in the American’s race for Tokyo, you can read about it here on the Beach Volley Blog.