Playing devil's advocate,

1. China's economy is undoubtedly slowing & reserves depleting. But the US would have to hand hold China for its own good & soften China's landing. Also, China's conscious efforts to restructure its growth model from infrastructure led growth to consumption led would yield results in the medium term.

2 Emerging markets are in trouble but India stands out. The depressed oil & commodity prices would reduce input costs allowing India to grow faster. Domestic demand would pick up though exports would lag behind.

3 US growth is sluggish & the Fed decision to hike the Fed rate lst year seems to have been premature. However, one might see reasonable recovery in the second half in an election year. Any rise in oil prices would benefit US energy companies resulting in higher equity prices of oil companies.

4 The Middle East crisis is unlikely to end soon though oil price concerns has exercised the regimes. After announcing a output freeze last month, OPEC seems inclined to cut production next month. This would push up crude prices & stock markets as there is a strong correlation between crude price & stock markets today. Iran has entered the crude oil market & it would be in everyone's interest to push up prices by cutting production.

5 Globally banks are in poor shape led by European banks. The coco bonds are likely to keep many bankers worried despite an expected meagre economic recovery.

6 The possible breakup of European disintegration would probably come due to Greece & unlikely from Britain. Brexit is unlikely to go through thereby strengthening the union. Brexitwould inflict huge losses, both economically & politically, while there would be little returns. Britain's trade deficit might have emboldened London to attempt at browbeating Europe but the fact is Britain's exports are in service sectors requiring Britain to individually negotiate trade agreements, a cumbersome exercise. Any expectations of concessions can be ruled out as similar agreements with non-EU members like Switzerland & Norway would force EU to accord similar treatment to them. Accepting EU conditions would be disastrous as many of the clauses would impinge on domestic law making. EU exports to Britain would be largely unaffected as mechandise expors come under WTO rules. However, one major problem that haunts Europe is the immigrants crisis that threatens to engulf Europe leading to social unrest like what has been reported in Sweden followed by possible repercussions may EU countries.