Advertisement Make your own forecast Part of Trump’s popularity is propped up by his core base: older, working-class, white voters. But how much does each voting bloc tip the scales of his approval rating? If the president sees a dip in his support among Hispanic Americans or a bump among women, how much do those changes cost or improve his overall support? We built a model to find out. Our forecasting tool measures how influential voting blocs are on the president’s overall base of support. Here’s how it works: As part of its polling methodology, Morning Consult estimates how large a share of American voters each demographic group represents. We use those estimates to weight each group’s approval of the president and calculate his overall approval rating. Choose a demographic group: Adjust any voting group's approval rating to see its effect on the president's overall approval .

Declining approval since inauguration Most presidents’ approval ratings decline during their administration, including Trump’s. So far, his largest drop has been among . For a little perspective, we use Gallup approval polls during Barack Obama’s presidency. In his worst poll, Obama had dropped 35 points among Republican voters from a high point at the beginning of his term. (He recovered to a 27-point drop by the time he left office.)

Advertisement Approval over time Trump hit his high-water mark among most demographics in the months after his inauguration. Men and older voters are the exception, whose support for Trump peaked later in the president’s term. Trump has tweeted more than a few times, claiming his popularity among minorities is increasing thanks to good economic numbers. Black voters, though, have registered some of the worst reported support for the president, bottoming out in single digits according to our Morning Consult poll. ● Highest approval ● Lowest approval