This is the first in a series of articles I’ll post throughout the year outlining the best and worst possible outcomes for the Wiz and their players. I’ll wrap it up with what I think is the most likely outcome.

The Wiz are counting on their #15 pick from the 2018 draft to step up and contribute big minutes this year

Upside

Ball-handling – The Wiz need playmakers. Despite limited minutes and touches, Troy managed 4 assists per 36 last year. Teams know that the Wizards offense lives and dies by Bradley Beal and Brown is likely to be the worst 3 pt shooter in the starting lineup. That means Troy will have to make himself available to Brad whenever a double is sent and effectively attack a defense that’s at a numbers disadvantage. Whether that means finishing at the rim (where he shot an elite 71.4% last year) or kicking out after a collapse will be up to him. But the Wizards’ offense will need a release valve and Brown is nicely positioned to step into that role.

Defense – The Wizards defense has looked surprisingly solid through three games, but there is some evidence to suggest that it’s partially due to opponents missing a lot of good looks from three. Neither of the Wizards’ PG options offer any value on the defensive end and one might be the worst defender in the league. I’ve long believed the Wizards’ best lineup this season will feature Brown running the point, where he can use his superior size to bully other PGs on both ends of the court.

Rebounding – Last year the Wizards had the third worst defensive rebounding percentage in the league. For a defense that already struggled to get stops, this just exacerbated problems. Troy averaged 7.2 rebounds per 36 last year. If he can translate that production to actual minutes it’ll be great for the Wiz on D. Additionally, it can only mean good things when a dynamic, athletic ball-handler comes down with the rebound. I’d love to see him push the pace off of misses.

Downside

Turnovers – While this wasn’t a problem that presented itself last year (Troy had a very solid 2.66 AST/TO ratio) I expect to see it rear its head some throughout this season. Brown has never had a particularly tight handle and he’s going to be asked to do far more than he’s done in the league so far. His turnover rate was much higher in college and I suspect he’ll struggle as he assumes a larger role. I don’t think it will be a long term issue. Watching Troy’s assist and turnover numbers as the seasons wears on will be interesting.

Shooting – This has never been a strong suit of his. He shot 72.5% at the line in college and that dropped to 68.1% last year. FT shooting has long been thought of as the best indicator of overall shooting skill and his 31.9% from three isn’t very pretty either. Teams are going to sag off of him to the detriment of the offense. Unless Brown brings his defensive and playmaking A game, it could be hard to justify big minutes if his three point shooting stays stagnant or drops. I’m obviously in favor of letting him mess up and develop but Brooks has had a short leash with young players in the past and I could see this becoming an issue.

Defense – While defense certainly is more of a strength for TBJ, he’s still only 6′ 7″ and 20 years old. Troy is going to be tasked with guarding the other team’s best wing on most nights and I think it’ll certainly take some time for him to actually become a consistent positive contributor on that end. He has the tools to guard up a position or two (a 6′ 11″ wingspan combined with a strong, broad frame) but it won’t be easy.

Prediction

I think Troy will have a good year. I think we’re going to see a lot more inexperienced mistakes than last year due to the big minutes he’ll be taking on. The big key for me will be improvement throughout the year. He’s certainly going to struggle adjusting to his new role. However, if continues to attack the rim and make plays for others while getting reps guarding players 1-4, Wiz fans will come to appreciate him as the franchise building block he can be.

Statline: 13.8p/6.2r/4.1a on 43/33/72 shooting. He’ll finish the year second on the Wiz in plus-minus, behind Beal.