When It Gets Colder, it Only Proves Warming Is For Real!

We sure had a good laugh when a couple of warmists got trapped in Antarctic ice that quickly grew so thick that even the Chinese icebreaker that tried to rescue them got stuck and must now be rescued as well – by what is presumably a bigger icebreaker from the US (yet another icebreaker sent from Australia already had to give up, so this is the third one). We will be watching with interest whether this icebreaker ends up getting stuck as well. If this continues, they can soon establish a new Eskimo village or two on the Antarctic ice shelf. Of course the climate scientists on the the first ship that got stuck should have known that something like this could happen after 17 years (count 'em) of zero warming.

We also worried slightly about the 500,000 people in Canada and the US who suddenly found themselves sitting in the dark after severe snowstorms in the Northeast left them without power. In fact, the US is experiencing the coldest winter weather in decades – according to recent reports it has become so cold that “even polar bears and penguins were being kept indoors Monday”.

“Anana, the lone polar bear at the Lincoln Park Zoo in Chicago, has never grown the thick layer of fat that bears in their native Arctic develop to insulate themselves against winter temperatures that can range as low as -50 degrees F, zoo spokeswoman Sharon Dewar said. So when temperatures plunged well into the negative range in Chicago, Anana stayed in a 40ish-degree habitat, Dewar said. […] And at the National Aviary in Pittsburgh, both bald eagles and African penguins "who are used to temperate climates" were taken off exhibit until the weather warms up, the facility reported. Chicago saw a record low of minus 16 (minus 27 C) on Monday. The day's high was minus 11, with a windchill of minus 34. It's part of an Arctic blast that plunged deep into the central United States on Monday, leaving Nashville, Tennessee, 40 degrees colder than Albany, New York; Memphis 20 degrees colder than Anchorage, Alaska; and Atlanta colder than Moscow — Russia or Idaho, take your pick.”

Naturally, many people skeptical of the AGW theory (which increasingly looks like junk science, for unrelated reasons) had a field day with all these sudden outbreaks of bitter cold. However, as we have often pointed out in the past, extreme weather is actually not providing any proof regarding the direction of the larger climate trend. The reason why we have to keep pointing this out is usually that AGW supporters are regularly trotting out extreme weather as 'proof that global warming is real'. Here is Al Gore on this topic in 2011, citing, what else, the alleged 'scientific consensus':

“Observations in the real world make it clear that it's happening now, it's real, it's with us," he said. Failing to take action meant the world would face a catastrophe. He added that nearly every climate scientist actively publishing on the subject now agreed there was a causal link between carbon emissions and the sharp increase in intense and extreme weather events seen across the globe. "Every single national academy of science of every major country on earth agrees with the consensus and the one's that don't agree with it do not exist. This is what they say to governments: 'The need for urgent action is now indisputable'. "The scientists have made a subtle but profound change in the way that they speak about the connection between the climate crisis and the extreme weather events. They used to say you can't connect any extreme weather event to climate because there are multiple factors. Now they've changed. "The environment in which all storms are formed has changed. It's influence is now present according to the leading scientists in all storms, and they speak of relative causation."

(emphasis added)

So let us get this straight: in 2011 (when 'zero warming' was almost 15 years old…), “nearly every climate scientist actively publishing on the subject agreed there was a causal link between carbon emissions and the sharp increase in intense and extreme weather events seen across the globe.”

So in view of this consensus, we were naturally wondering what climate alarmists are saying to the slew of ships and icebreakers getting stuck of late and the sudden cold snap engulfing the US and other places. After all, when there are 'floods and storms', they allegedly represent clear proof of global warming. So what exactly does extremely cold weather prove, according to this school of thought? Why, it proves of course precisely nothing. Here is the Guardian on all those ships stuck in the Antarctic:

“In fact, the local weather patterns that brought about the rapid build up of ice that trapped the Academik Shokalskiy tell us very little about global warming. This is weather, not climate.”

That is actually true (there has been a veritable flood of articles informing us that the cold weather means nothing). One is however compelled to wonder if that means that the 'scientific consensus' on extreme weather has changed since 2011. Just asking. We sure don't remember having been apprised of it.

However, it appears that the extreme cold snap in the US does after all prove something. You see, extremely cold weather actually means global warming is more dangerous then we were led to believe. Warming makes the climate not only warmer, but colder as well! So we have now finally arrived at the point where literally, every situation, no matter how incongruous, can be blamed on 'global warming'…err, sorry, we meant to say 'climate change' of course.

Here is Time Magazine informing us of this fact. The author starts out by telling us that extreme weather that does not fit the warming narrative is of course utterly meaningless. Never mind that the UN climate representative from the Philippines regularly breaks out in tears in public when there is a typhoon somewhere, imploring us that we must do something now (like raise all sorts of taxes), or we shall be doomed!

“By tonight, the freeze will reach the East Coast, where temperatures from Florida to Maine are expected to be 30º F to 40º F (16º C to 22º C) degrees below normal, extremes that haven’t been seen in decades. The National Weather Service isn’t kidding when it calls the cold “life-threatening.” Unsurprisingly, the extreme cold has brought out the climate change skeptics, who point to the freeze and the recent snowstorms and say, essentially, “nyah-nyah.” Now this is where I would usually point to the fact that the occasional cold snap—even one as extreme as much of the U.S. is experiencing now—doesn’t change the overall trajectory of a warming planet. Weather is what happens in the atmosphere day to day; climate is how the atmosphere behaves over long periods of time. Winters in the U.S. have been warming steadily over the past century, and even faster in recent decades, so it would take more than a few sub-zero days to cancel that out.”

Again, we agree completely that a cold snap is no reason for AGW skeptics to come out and claim it proves anything (they are by the way decidedly not 'climate skeptics' – not a single AGW skeptic doubts there is a climate or that it continually changes.That is not the issue at all). However, the above paragraph contains a number of important omissions and exaggerations, such as not mentioning the '17 years and four months of no warming at all' period, failing to mention the medieval warm period (it should be a duty to mention it in every article about climate change, precisely because it casts serious doubt on the AGW theory), and exaggerating the degree of warming in modern times (much of which has apparently been the result of 'adjusting' old measurements). Fear not however, apparently even cold weather can after all be used to prove that there is global warming. The article continues:

“But not only does the cold spell not disprove climate change, it may well be that global warming could be making the occasional bout of extreme cold weather in the U.S. even more likely.”

(emphasis added)

That is of course mighty convenient, because it means that even if one day the whole world were to look like this …

… it would still only prove that 'global warming' is an imminent threat!

(Photo credit: John Turner / British Antarctic Survey)

It should be noted that according to the article, the 'vanishing ice in the Arctic' must be blamed for pushing polar cold fronts southward, but this assertion clashes with the fact that Arctic sea ice has increased by 50% year-over-year. Shouldn't the extremely cold winter have happened at a more convenient moment? Meanwhile, the Antarctic ice sheet has once again increased to a modern-day record this year, which has become a regular occurrence. There is of course a reason why the semantics on global warming have suddenly changed:

Why 'global warming' has become 'climate change' in one striking chart – click to enlarge.

An Utterly Dismal Predictive Record

It also seems to us that it is high time that more attention is paid to the absolutely dismal record of alarmist climate predictions. As far as we can tell not a single alarmist prediction made over the past three decades has come true. Not a one (if anyone can dig one up, we'd be thrilled to hear about it). This seems rather important, since the same alarmists insist that we have to accept a huge slowdown in economic progress, vast additional taxes and a general loss of freedom based on nothing but their predictions. The predictions of the most respected and well-known alarmists have however not just been wrong, they have been exceptionally wrong. A glaring example comes from what is reportedly one of the most influential climate papers ever published, by J. Hansen and collaborators in the Journal of Geophysical Research (1988). The paper's title is ”Global Climate Changes as Forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies”.

The conclusion reached in a recent report examining the paper's predictions:

“Hansen’s model overestimated the temperature by 1.9°C, which is a whopping 150% wrong.”

Temperature forecast by Hansen’s group from the year 1988. The various scenarios are: 1.5% CO2 increase (blue), constant increase in CO2 emissions (green) and stagnant CO2 emissions (red). In reality, CO2 emissions increased by as much as 2.5%, which would correspond to a scenario above the blue curve. The black curve is the ultimate real-measured temperature (rolling 5-year average). Hansen’s model overestimates the temperature by 1.9° C, which is a whopping 150% wrong. Figure supplemented by Hansen et al. (1988).

So the Hansen model's prediction (in blue) actually assumed a far lower increase in CO2 than actually occurred. We wonder where he would have drawn his 'prediction curve' if he had assumed the 2.5% increase in CO2 emissions that actually took place? In any case, it is clear that these models are essentially worthless, and the premises on which they are based are evidently wrong. One cannot base policies on such balderdash, and yet, this is what is constantly done and demanded.

Let us also briefly mention here that all sorts of alarmist forecasts about Arctic sea ice have been rather dramatically blown out of the water (the part that didn't freeze over) this year. Mind, we don't even believe that it would be cause for alarm if that hadn't happened. Who cares really? The Vikings once colonized Greenland when it became ice-free during the medieval warm period, and wine was planted in Sweden. As far as we know, zero negative side effects were recorded anywhere due to these events. On the contrary, the warm period initiated a flourishing of life and civilization, just as one would logically expect.

Moreover, the climate hysteria propagated in most mainstream media is utterly shameful. We understand that the news that 'there's nothing to worry about' won't sell papers, but they are furthering a meme that is economically extremely harmful. Here is an article published in the year 2000, when a series of balmy winters was paraded – you guessed it – as proof of global warming. Our children would never see snow again!

“Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. Average temperatures in Britain were nearly 0.6°C higher in the Nineties than in 1960-90, and it is estimated that they will increase by 0.2C every decade over the coming century. Eight of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the Nineties. However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event". "Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.

It sure seems the 'scientific consensus' got it wrong again. Here is a headline from a few days ago: “Britain now facing worst winter in sixty years warn forecasters”. The article bemoans the expected disruptions to traffic and flights, but notes in closing that at least the children will have fun!

Conclusion:

So there you have it: whether the winter weather is warm or bitterly cold, it always proves that global warming will get us (or our children, or our children's children, or take your pick, someone in the far future …). Never mind that not one of the alarmist forecasts made over the years has come true, we are facing a global threat that makes it absolutely necessary to finance a burgeoning global climate bureaucracy and its scientific advisors, stuff money extorted from tax payers into the subsidization of uneconomic 'green energy' schemes, and enrich an entire panoply of authoritarian leftists who have seen their income reduced due to losing their sugar daddy in Moscow in the early 90s.

And that is what the whole hysteria is ultimately about: cold hard cash.

Charts by: Hansen et al., Tim Ball

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