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ReThink 81 predicts the highlighted buildings on this Syracuse map will be demolished if New York rebuilds a straighter Interstate 81 viaduct along the edge of downtown. New York state transportation officials says decisions about razing specific properties have not been made as officials review options that range from a tunnel to a viaduct to a street-level boulevard. ReThink 81 is a civic group opposed to building a new elevated section of I-81.

(Peter Allen | The Post-Standard)

SYRACUSE, N.Y. - Building a straighter, elevated Interstate 81 in Syracuse would flatten some of the city's historic buildings, expensive apartments and renovated blocks while adding tens of millions of dollars in property costs to the overall project, according to an analysis by a group opposed to a new viaduct.

The state Department of Transportation says it's too soon to know what properties would be razed, but ReThink81 is making bold predictions.

According to the group, a new straighter viaduct would cut through the McMahon/Ryan Child Advocacy Center, Smith's Restaurant Supply and the Snowden, where more than 100 convicted sex offenders live.

It would shoot through St. John the Evangelist, Nettleton Commons and Webster's Landing.

The middle of a new I-81 and larger I-690 interchange would cover more than a block of Little Italy along North Salina Street, from south of Learbury Centre up to the corner anchored by Rocky's News Stand, ReThink 81 predicts.

Columbus Bakery would remain, according to ReThink's analysis. Thano's Import Market would not.

ReThink81, which wants the elevated highway to be replaced by a street-level boulevard, identified the buildings by taking the centerlines of a new I-81 viaduct and its larger interchange with Interstate 690 from a preliminary, state-produced map. The group then drew those centerlines across the city's streets.

I-81 Project Director Mark Frechette has said repeatedly that it is far too soon to know what properties might be in the way, in part because state and federal officials are at the very beginning stages of figuring out what should replace the deteriorating highway - a boulevard, a tunnel or a new viaduct.

The state has said the straightest version of a new viaduct would cost $1.438 billion and would take out 30 to 40 buildings. ReThink81's analysis found about the same amount of buildings at risk.

ReThink81 is tired of waiting for DOT to identify specific buildings at risk. So it put the city's skyline up against the state's ideas, no matter how preliminary they are.

"We wanted to make it real," said Bob Doucette, a downtown developer who is against any plans that call for replacing the I-81 viaduct, said of the study.

"You figure, that at the Dinosaur Bar-B-Que, the building itself would not be at risk," said Andrew Schuster, a local architect and another founding member behind ReThink81. "But everybody eating there, if you're sitting outside, would essentially be a block away from the underside of a 100-foot overpass."

Their study, which appears at the bottom of this story, illustrates the effects of both another elevated I-81 and an expanded interchange with I-690, a key part of the state and federal project. In fact, about a third of the properties ReThink81 believes could be at risk are because of new ramps needed for the I-690 part of the project, according to Schuster.

In the end, the centerlines bisect or nick more than 100 property tax parcels worth $41.8 million, according to ReThink's analysis. That could cost the city and Onondaga County $1.6 million a year in lost property taxes.

State officials say ReThink81's analysis is premature because the information released so far is conceptual rather than an exact design of where a new highway could go. The I-81 project is in an early, idea phase, according to Department of Transportation spokesman Beau Duffy.

"What we have developed so far are conceptual layouts of the alternatives to determine if they meet the purpose and need of the project," Duffy said in response to questions about ReThink81's report. "They do not reflect the detailed engineering work necessary to determine how the different alternatives could affect specific properties."

Those details will come during the project's next phase, Duffy added.

The state has proposed six options for I-81 - three for a new viaduct and three for a replacement boulevard and by-pass around the city. The state is holding a public meeting about its recommendations at 6 p.m. Tuesday, July 29 at Toomey Abbott Towers, 1207 Almond St. People have until Sept. 2 to comment on those proposals or suggest their own.

Other founding members of ReThink81 include Bob Haley, Mike Stanton, Joe Sisko, Jason Evans, Joe Hucko, Matt Oja, and Syracuse Common Council President Van Robinson. The Downtown Committee of Syracuse also supports the group's findings. None of them own any parts of the properties they identified at risk in their study, according to Schuster.

The authors of the study admit their analysis depends on information not yet known -- namely, exactly where the centerline of a new, elevated I-81 would run through Syracuse. And they failed to look at any effects on property south of Adams Street, where a new viaduct could encroach on parts of the Syracuse Housing Authority.

But, they argue, if another set of bridges cuts through the city, it's fair to take a look at what might be in the way based on the very information the state has provided thus far.

Schuster, Doucette and others acknowledge that centerline could tack east or west as the state designs a proposal for a safer, straighter interstate. "You're just going to move the impact," Schuster says. "You're not going to have a substantially larger or smaller impact. You'll just impact different properties."

Not everyone buys that assessment.

"If this list is not from the DOT then I don't put a lot of credence in it," said Mark Nicotra, the Salina supervisor who helped found Save81, a group that wants I-81 to remain in some form as a federal highway through the city. "The DOT has not said what properties might be at risk. This list is a complete guess. It could have some accuracy, but who's to say."

Contact Teri Weaver anytime: Email | Twitter | 315-470-2274

Rethink81 White Paper June 2014