Who's likely to replace L. Brooks Patterson if he retires?

Long-time Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson insists he hasn't decided whether he will seek another term but that hasn't stopped talk of possible successors.

Patterson, 79, said he might be ready to retire when his current term, his seventh, ends in 2020, though he walked back the comment when pressed on it. If he were to retire, who is his likely successor?

"The Democrats have been salivating for years for the chance to pick this up," said Bill Ballenger, editor of The Ballenger Report, a Lansing-based political newsletter. "I think the Democrats are really in the cat-bird seat to do it."

Ballenger said that because the executive runs in presidential years and Oakland County has been voting for Democrats at the presidential level for years, Republicans will struggle to hold the seat once Patterson is gone. Democrats already have captured three other countywide posts: prosecutor, clerk and treasurer.

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Since adopting the county executive form of government in 1974, Oakland County has had only two executives: Patterson and his predecessor, Daniel T. Murphy.

Here's a look at some potential candidates for the top job in Michigan's wealthiest county:

Sheriff Mike Bouchard: A Republican who wins consistently in a county that votes reliably Democratic at the presidential level, Bouchard is the GOP's top vote-getter in Oakland.

Bryan Barnett: Republican mayor of Rochester Hills, Bryan Barnett won a city council election at age 23 and became mayor at 30.

Treasurer Andy Meisner: A Democrat who defeated incumbent Pat Dohany in 2008 and rolled to easy wins twice after, Meisner has made a name for himself helping to combat tax foreclosures.

Dave Woodward: A former Democratic state representative who now serves on the Oakland County Board of Commissioners representing Berkley and Royal Oak.

Vicki Barnett: A Democrat and former mayor of Farmington Hills, Oakland's second-largest city, who lost to Patterson by seven points in 2016 on a shoe-string campaign budget.

Others Republicans mentioned include Phil Bertolini, a Patterson deputy; Mike Gingell, chairman of the county Board of Commissioners and former Water Resources Commissioner John McCulloch. On the Democratic side, County Clerk/Register of Deeds Lisa Brown also is mentioned, as is former county Commissioner Tim Greimel, who's currently running for Congress.

Cult of personality

Bouchard has been a friend of Patterson for years and a proven vote-getter and fundraiser.

In 2016, Bouchard won almost 60% of the vote and received 85,000 more votes in Oakland County than his party's presidential candidate, Donald Trump. Bouchard won 25% of the vote in Pontiac, a Democratic stronghold. That same election Patterson won about 53% of the countywide vote in his re-election bid.

Bouchard doesn't face voters again until 2020, but his most recent statement showed he already had $492,000 in his campaign account, far more than any other challenger.

"People have talked to me about it for years, depending on whether or not Brooks runs," Bouchard said. "If Brooks stays, he's my horse."

Bouchard is the longest-serving sheriff in Oakland County history. He was appointed to the post in 1999 and then elected to it five times. He said if the opportunity came along to run for county executive, he'd certainly look at it.

Bouchard also said he'd want to talk Robert Ficano, Warren Evans and Mark Hackel, all former sheriffs who went on to be county executives.

"It seems like the surest route to being county executive is to be sheriff first," Bouchard said. "But I really love what I'm doing now. I do love policy, so the question would be, does the policy itch overcome the law enforcement itch?"

Meisner said he will keep an open mind about what to do in 2020. His campaign has more than $92,000 in the bank, according to his most recent statement.

"It's not something I've given a lot of thought to, but I'm certainly mindful that Oakland County is going to start a new chapter at some point," Meisner said. "There's been such a cult of personality around Brooks, it will be a big change, but I think it's also a big opportunity."

Meisner said Patterson has set the bar high in a lot of areas, especially finance, but that the county has changed a lot since he was first elected in 1992.

"The demographics of the county have changed a lot," Meisner said. "It's very different than the county that Brooks was first elected in."

Meisner said the next county executive must continue Patterson's successes but also improve in areas like supporting a regional transportation system, which Patterson has refused to embrace.

Regional transit

Vicki Barnett said transit is a huge issue that is holding Oakland County back. She based her 2016 campaign against Patterson on her opposition to a $1 billion widening of I-75, arguing the money could be better spent on surface streets and support for transit hubs.

"Sprawl seemed like a great thing in the '70s and '80s and maybe even into the '90s," Barnett said. "But we have to recognize that we have urban centers. We know that economic development occurs around transit hubs."

Barnett, who is the chairwoman of the Oakland County Democratic Party, said it's too early to think about 2020 because the November elections are the priority. But once those are done, the focus will turn to 2020.

"I never take anything off the table," Barnett said.

Woodward said he's interested as well, for many of the same reasons.

"I'm very interested, I have been for a while," Woodward said. "We are stronger as a region when we lead together."

Woodward said that Patterson's opposition to regional transit is one of several areas where Patterson is out of step. Patterson also has opposed paying for better lawyers for poor people charged with crimes, which means they are far more likely to be convicted than people who can afford their own lawyers, Woodward said.

Bryan Barnett said it's far too early to be discounting Patterson.

"Brooks Patterson has earned the right to serve as long as he'd like," Barnett said. "I completely support him as long as he determines he wants to be in that post."

Barnett said if and when Patterson decides to leave, he would consider his options.

"It's an honor to be thought of as someone would could one day hold that post," Barnett said.

Contact John Wisely: 313-222-6825 or jwisely@freepress.com. On Twitter @jwisely