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Latino voters in California could help decide party control in Washington in the midterms, with several of the country’s most competitive congressional races being fought here. But just how many Hispanics will show up at the ballot box remains a big question, and it appears that most in the state have not been contacted directly by campaigns.

Latino turnout in California has steadily declined in recent years, to 47 percent in 2016 from 57 percent in 2008, according to data analyzed by William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution. Midterm elections saw even lower rates: Just 25 percent of eligible California Latinos cast ballots in 2014.

Perhaps nowhere is the Hispanic vote so critical this year as in the 10th District, surrounding Modesto in the Central Valley, where Josh Harder, a Democrat, is running a competitive bid to unseat the incumbent Republican, Representative Jeff Denham. Mr. Denham clung to his seat in 2016 by just a few percentage points even as Hillary Clinton won the district.

Mr. Denham has been a pro-immigrant voice on the right and has often butted heads with fellow Republicans over reform efforts. But Mr. Harder is hoping Latinos in the district will make it to the polls to cast protest ballots against President Trump’s agenda this year, honing a message that focuses on jobs, economic security and health care. He is looking for young voters like Estela Arreola, 18, a pro-Democrat student at California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, who said she was extremely excited to vote in her first general election.