Projected costs for TriMet’s next light rail project have increased by nearly half a billion dollars, creating a new budget gap that TriMet officials are optimistic can be addressed, but has raised alarm bells for some suburban leaders.

Southwest Corridor leaders say the 12-mile route expected to terminate near Bridgeport Village in Washington County is now projected to cost $2.87 billion to build, about $462 million more than the amount TriMet plans to request from a combination of federal, state, regional agencies and metro area voters. Newly revised labor and construction costs helped to drive price estimates upwards. The region had banked on about half of the project cost, $1.25 billion, coming from the federal government.

The financial uncertainty comes early in the years-long design period, when engineers map out the rail line, and how the 13 stations and surrounding bike and pedestrian infrastructure will look and feel. It also presents officials from TriMet, Portland, the state, Metro, Washington County and suburban cities with tough decisions to trim costs -- including one option that is anathema to most members: terminating trains in downtown Tigard instead of Bridgeport Village until more money is available.

“Obviously we’re taking it very seriously,” said Dave Unsworth, TriMet’s director of project development and permitting, while adding that the situation is “not unusual” for such a large project. He said all options were on the table and would be presented to the project’s steering committee in coming months.

“We’re leaving no stone unturned,” Unsworth added. Construction is expected to begin in late 2022 with the first trains running by late 2027.

Discussions about what a reduced project may look like are still preliminary, but political considerations are unavoidable, especially with broad regional support needed to ensure the project receives funding through a November 2020 transportation package headed to metro voters.

“We’ve got to make sure we’re aligned for the 2020 funding measure,” Unsworth said.

Washington County Commissioner Roy Rogers, a former Tualatin mayor who’s sat on the county board since 1985, said there’s one sure fire way he and his colleagues won’t agree to chip in $75 million toward the project.

“If It doesn’t go (to Bridgeport Village),” said Rogers, a light rail supporter, “we as a board are not really pursuing this a lot further.”

Other committee members have drawn different lines in the sand.

Tigard’s Mayor, Jason Snider, said he was “very concerned” planners will reduce travel lanes on Barbur Boulevard as a primary way to save cash. “Other options to reduce the scope of the project should be thoroughly considered,” he said, “including a shorter project.”

Snider questioned whether broad support existed in the metro area to “eliminate two lanes” from Barbur for nearly five miles.

“I’m concerned that this would threaten the entire measure,” he said.

Rogers, who’s long been a member of regional transportation planning conversations, said he’s viewing this more pragmatically.

“If you don’t think boldly, you’re not going to accomplish anything,” he said.

Portland City Commissioner Chloe Eudaly, who oversees the transportation bureau, declined an interview request, but submitted a statement saying she is looking forward “to continuing to strategize with my fellow steering committee members as we develop the best financial plan for the project.”

“I recognize that the Southwest Corridor will impact transportation in the Portland metropolitan Area for decades to come,” she said in her statement, “and I will continue to prioritize the project’s transit and affordable housing goals in my role on the steering committee.”

Officials from TriMet and Metro transportation gave a tour of the proposed route for the new Southwest Corridor Light Rail MAX line. The tour included proposed routes, as well as building locations for stations and tracks along the route. The route is slotted to be complete in 2027. - MAX Line Southwest Corridor Noble Guyon/ The OregonianNoble Guyon/ The Oregonian

WHAT HAPPENED

As the project on the meandering and hilly section of Southwest Barbur Boulevard and suburban southwest neighborhoods comes into focus – it’s now at 15% engineering design – the actual costs have crystallized, too.

Unsworth says that’s not unusual for large projects. The Portland-Milwaukie light rail line, which cost $1.5 billion and opened in 2015, was revised when federal officials slashed a more than $135 million hole in TriMet’s budget. Unsworth said that meant turning a park and ride building into a surface lot, removing pedestrian bridges, and other changes.

But TriMet also had banked on receiving a larger share of the project financing – 60% -- from the federal government and it didn’t budget on that estimate until later in the process. TriMet cut project elements but also pushed local partners, like the city of Portland, to pay more.

Unsworth acknowledged the Southwest Corridor is different in some ways, particularly due to the undulating terrain it travels through the commercial, residential, industrial and retail corridor. He said they’re considering inflation, increased labor costs and other factors when revising cost estimates.

Most of the project financing remains undetermined, with just $50 million in federal money allocated by Metro formally in hand. The region will seek $1.25 billion from the Federal Transit Administration and will ask voters to contribute $850 million at the November 2020 ballot box. The state, city of Portland, TriMet and Washington County are all expected to contribute significantly as well, but the precise funding sources and firm commitments are still months away.

TriMet said it didn’t believe it could – or would -- receive more than $1.25 billion from the federal government.

Who is expected to pay for the SW Corridor project? Federal Transit Administration: $1.25 billion Metro/regional funding measure: $850 million State of Oregon: $150 million TriMet: $75 million City of Portland: $75 million Washington County: $75 million Regional flexible funds (federal money allocated by Metro): $50 million Total: $2.525 billion Revised estimated as of August: $2.97 billion (figures provided by TriMet. Total include an estimated $150 million in interest on bonds that will be issued by TriMet to account for stream of federal funds received over an 8-12 year period)

On the Yellow, Green and Orange lines, Portland has used urban renewal dollars to pay a portion of its share of a local match, but it remains unclear if that’s a viable option today.

Prosper Portland, the city’s urban renewal agency, is studying a potential new urban renewal district along Barbur at the request of Mayor Ted Wheeler. It’s drafted two potential scenarios – a district as big as 932 acres and one as small as 498 acres – through the region on Barbur.

The larger district could generate up to $120 million in revenue over a 20-year period, but in contrast with past light rail developments, this project would be subject to rules setting aside at least 45% of that revenue for affordable housing. Urban renewal officials said they’re concerned committing future tax increment financing to building light rail line would take away from housing and economic development projects, a lesson learned from the construction of the Yellow Line.

Prosper Portland is also constrained by having a maximum amount of city acreage in urban renewal districts, which capture revenue generated above a base assessed property tax value in that area as a way to generate new revenue. The agency is also considering developing new districts in Cully or east Portland in response to requests from local leaders there.

The Portland City Council will decide early in 2020 how to pay for its share of the light rail line.

TriMet said the region needed to show the Federal Transit Administration it had the commitment of funds by fall 2020. Project leaders are hoping to finalize that plan later this year and other partners – like Washington County and Portland – will take up the financial issue anytime between January and May, according to TriMet.

Traffic on Barbur Boulevard and throughout the SW Corridor is a growing concern, and transit options are not available aside from a few bus lines.

OPTIONS

All options are on the table to trim the budget, it seems, aside from asking the feds for more money.

TriMet said it could consolidate or eliminate some of the seven park and ride lots and associated thousands of spaces, eliminate stations, experiment with battery-electric trains instead of building overhead electrical wires or reduce travel lanes on Barbur Boulevard in certain areas to cut costs.

When asked whether TriMet could increase the amount of money it asks for in the 2020 bond, Unsworth said that was a discussion above his pay grade.

“That is bigger than TriMet and is really predicated on the steering committee,” he said.

TriMet’s steering committee will be briefed on the latest particulars at its September meeting. In October it will be expected to approve those “substantial changes to project scope” while exploring potential additional funding options, TriMet records show.

Robert Kellogg, a Tualatin City Council member who sits on the light rail committee, said the biggest concern for his community was that the train goes all the way to its intended destination.

“I am 100% in favor of getting the line to Bridgeport,” he said.

Officials from TriMet and Metro transportation gave a tour of the proposed route for the new Southwest Corridor Light Rail MAX line. The tour included proposed routes, as well as building locations for stations and tracks along the route. The route is slotted to be complete in 2027. - MAX Line Southwest Corridor Noble Guyon/ The OregonianNoble Guyon/ The Oregonian

BARBUR

Barbur Boulevard is one of the city’s high crash corridors, meaning the 6.3-mile stretch of the road in city limits is one of the most-dangerous for motorists, pedestrians and cyclists. It’s also owned by the state’s transportation department. Two aging bridges – the Newberry and Vermont Viaducts – are expected to be rebuilt as part of the project. Rebuilding those narrow, aging bridges allows Barbur to be widened to accommodate two travel lanes, new bike lanes, sidewalks and the light rail line in that area.

TriMet could save money by building the transit line next to those viaducts instead of rebuilding them.

Unsworth said TriMet could also look to acquire less residential or commercial property to expand the right of way to maintain two travel lanes in either direction on Barbur.

One area Unsworth said he didn’t anticipate significant cuts: bike and pedestrian improvements.

But on a five-mile chunk of Barbur, TriMet could look to revise travel lanes to one way in each direction as a significant cost-saver. What those savings would look like are not yet clear, he said.

Eliminating travel lanes on Barbur seems to align with the city of Portland’s vision elsewhere, where travel lanes have been removed to slow down traffic, part of the Vision Zero campaign to eliminate traffic fatalities by 2025.

Eudaly declined to address this issue in an interview or her statement, as did city of Portland transportation officials, which also emphasized the city’s commitment to affordable housing and increased transit in the corridor.

Rogers, though, said while he’s aware many suburban commuters are against reducing travel lanes, he would defer to Portland.

“It has to be something that’s palatable to the city,” he said. If Portland wants to reduce travel lanes on Barbur, he said: “I’m not opposed to that at all.”

Snider disagrees with that sentiment. He said although TriMet was only considering reducing auto lanes on a 5-mile stretch of road entirely within Portland city limits, those changes would still ripple outward to Tigard.

The region of Southwest Portland, Tigard, Tualatin and Sherwood expects to add 70,000 people and 65,000 jobs by 2035.

“Future reductions of road capacity on Barbur Blvd. will certainly impact the people of Tigard along with people from all over the Portland metropolitan area,” he said. “In the recent past, Tigard voters have clearly expressed concern about any reductions in road capacity within five miles of the City of Tigard and I share this concern.”

Tigard’s city charter indicates the suburb is opposed to any high capacity transit “that reduces available road capacity in favor of light rail, rail transit or exclusive bus lanes.” It also defines road capacity as any road “within five miles of the city that currently permits public automobile traffic or any public rights-of-way that could otherwise provide additional road capacity at a future date.”

In 2016, Tigard voters narrowly voted to reverse the city’s 2014 decision to oppose light rail.

Kellogg, the Tualatin city council member, said he’s also received emails from constituents concerned about the potential loss of a travel lane for cars.

TriMet estimates the project could carry up to 43,000 daily riders by 2035. But Rogers, the long-time commissioner, said it’s not going to be everything to everyone.

“Are we going to get everything we want?” he asked, “of course not. There’s not enough money to do everything.”

But he said regardless of reduced elements, the project is a step forward. “That’s what is necessary,” he said.

The Steering Committee next meets at 5:30 p.m. Sept. 23 in Tigard.

-- Andrew Theen

atheen@oregonian.com

503-294-4026

@andrewtheen

Visit subscription.oregonlive.com/newsletters to get Oregonian/OregonLive journalism delivered to your email inbox.