Ken Clarke says he’d bring down Boris Johnson in a confidence vote: Here’s how many more Tories would need to follow The threat of a no deal Brexit in October could see Tory MPs vote to bring down their own government

Boris Johnson’s theoretical government is facing the threat of collapse before it has even formed after Tory grandee Ken Clarke said he would join rebels in backing a no confidence motion.

The former Chancellor, an outspoken critic of Brexit, said he would break ranks to remove Boris Johnson, rather than let the UK crash out of the EU without a deal on 31 October.

The move would decimate the Conservatives wafer thin working majority of four, and could lead to either a general election or change of prime minister.

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According to minister Tobias Ellwood, at least a dozen Tory MPs prepared to vote in favour of bringing down their own government if negotiations fail.

The threats come despite Mr Johnson saying we “must leave the EU on October 31 come what may.”

Ken Clarke’s threat

Speaking on Radio 4’s World At One, Mr Clarke accused the Tory leadership front runner of needing to “go away and do some homework”.

“Most other people interested in politics have got further along the road of discovering what Brexit might or might not mean than Boris appears to have done,” he said.

Asked if he would back a no confidence vote he said: “If it’s heading for a no deal simply because the government’s [not got round] to doing anything then yes I think I would.”

He added: “It might trigger an election, it might trigger a change of government, without an election under the law we now have.”

Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, a government that loses a no confidence vote either has 14 days to win a new vote – such as by changing PM – or a general election is automatically triggered.

Tory rebels

Mr Clarke is likely one of the suspected 12 Tory MPs who are prepared to use the “nuclear option” and bring down the government if it advocates for no deal.

Just three Tories would need to no confidence the government in order for it to lose, assuming all opposition parties and MPs also oppose the government.

Conservatives 311 (+ 1 deputy speaker)

Democratic Unionist Party 10

Government: 321 Labour 245 (+ 2 deputy speakers)

Scottish National Party 35

Independent 15

Liberal Democrat 12

Change UK 5

Plaid Cymru 4

Green Party 1

Opposition: 317 Speaker 1

Deputy Speakers 3

Vacant 1

Sinn Fein 7

Non-voting 12

Defence minister Tobias Ellwood said “a dozen or so members of parliament would be on our side, would be voting against supporting a no-deal and that would include ministers as well as backbenchers.”

They were comments echoed by former Attorney General Dominic Grieve, who has become a high profile organiser against no deal.

He sent a clear threat to a Prime Minister Johnson: “If the new prime minister announces taking the country on a magical mystery tour towards an October 31 crash-out, I don’t think that prime minister is going to survive very long.”

The rebels could spell disaster for both contenders for the Tory leadership.

Mr Johnson has said he supports leaving the EU on 31 October with or without a deal. Jeremy Hunt has also said he supports leaving without a deal if necessary, but told the Today programme on Monday he would respect parliament if it voted against a no deal exit again.

Confidence motion

However, a confidence motion may be brought months earlier in July by Jeremy Corbyn.

Theresa May is set to officially depart as Prime Minister on 24 July, following the conclusion of the Conservative Party leadership election.

A no-confidence motion is expected to be tabled by the Labour leader one day later, on 25 July, with Labour MPs already told to expect a three-line whip.

Tory MPs told to be on three line whip w/c July 22 inc Thur July 25, presumably in case of vote of no confidence pic.twitter.com/VCcdzTx133 — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) June 24, 2019

Tory chief whip Julian Smith has warned Mr Johnson’s campaign team that there is a high likelihood that he could lose the vote immediately after taking power.

However, it looks less likely that this would succeed, with Tory rebels likely to support their government if it is seen to be working towards a deal.

Change UK, which has five MPs at present, has previously said it would not want a snap election, but Huffington Post has reported they would back a confidence vote to stop a no-deal Brexit.