We are just over a week into spring training games and there have been some nice starts by several players for the Cincinnati Reds. While it’s better to have success in spring training than not, I believe that teams, at times, put too much stock into spring training performance for non-established veteran players. Nearly everyone in big league camp has several years of minor league performance to look back on to know sort of what you can expect from them, but decisions seem to be made based on a few weeks of play against uneven competition every single year. It’s a strange beast.

With all of that said, let’s assume that everyone is healthy that is expected to be (which means everyone but Homer Bailey and John Lamb) and take a look at the starting line up, rotation and bullpen as best we can (not a lineup):

Those guys, at this point, seem to be locks (Blake Wood stands out as a lock – but he’s out of options, so unless he has a terrible spring, he’s making the team). That leaves open ten total spots between left field, the bench and the bullpen. Two players are locks for the bench in Ivan De Jesus and Tucker Barnhart. De Jesus is the only true backup infielder that the team has, assuming they don’t plan to use Jose Peraza off of the bench – which would be a shocking move. Barnhart, of course, is the backup catcher and unless he’s injured, has that spot locked in.

That gets us to 17 players, leaving us with seven spots to fill. Right now, the bench sits at two players and the bullpen at three. Let’s jump into the bench/left field situation. The bench is going to need someone to back up 1st base, which makes Adam Duvall a near lock as a big power guy who has corner infield experience. He can also play at third base every so often if Eugenio Suarez needs a day off. Duvall also could get some time in left field. Scott Schebler, Jake Cave and Yorman Rodriguez also seem to be in the outfield mix. Where things could get interesting is that both Rodriguez and Cave can’t be sent to the minor leagues, while Schebler can. That option for Schebler may very well come into play when it’s decision time. Then there is also Tyler Holt, who of the outfielders is the best defender in center field. Unfortunately for him, he also has an option and the previously mentioned guys can all at least cover center field for you every so often.

With the backup infielders set, and Duvall being able to play left, third and first base in some capacity, the bench could very well work out to include six outfielders: Hamilton and Bruce as the starters with Rodriguez, Duvall, Cave and Schebler all playing the mix-and-match game. That would put the roster at 21 players, with four spots remaining for the bullpen.

How the bullpen shakes out is anyone’s guess. There are simply so many options that the Reds could take to fill out the remaining four spots. Tony Cingrani, Carlos Contreras, Caleb Cotham, Stephen Johnson, Chris O’Grady, Keyvius Sampson, Drew Hayes, Ryan Mattheus, Tim Melville, Layne Somsen, Jonathan Sanchez, Pedro Villarreal and Zack Weiss could all truly be in the mix.

If I had to make a bet right now, I’d bet that the bullpen is a 7-man squad with the bench being as listed above.

That’s my take on things as we sit here at 10am on March 9th. What do you think?