The scale of Mitt Romney's money advantage (see here with Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman, is finally coming into shape. | AP Photos Romney dominates GOP cash dash

Everyone knows Mitt Romney is going to outpace the GOP presidential field when next month’s fundraising reports come out. But the scale of his money advantage is finally coming into shape: the rest of the field is going to be eating his dust.

Romney is so confident in his fundraising that he will not put any of his own money into the campaign this quarter, campaign officials tell POLITICO.


The former Massachusetts governor’s commanding financial position is just one of the themes that will emerge from the paperwork filed for the quarterly reporting deadline — the first true metric of the sluggish 2012 presidential campaign.

Tim Pawlenty, unable to show fickle donors any poll numbers indicating a pulse, is likely to reveal that he hasn’t yet met his potential. Newt Gingrich’s finances, much like his broader campaign, seem to be going bust.

Beyond that, there are mostly questions. Rep. Michele Bachmann, while expected to clean up with low-dollar contributions, has yet to demonstrate she can haul in checks from the party’s coveted bundlers. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman is impressing some of the GOP’s moneymen but remains a mystery.

Those are just the candidates who’ve made clear they’re running. Proven fundraiser Rick Perry is still casting a shadow from the sidelines.

The reports will reflect the state of the race in another important way: who’s not cutting checks.

Many longtime Republican donors are either sitting on their money or directing it to other political entities as they wait for an ideal candidate who may never emerge.

“I’m still waiting for the field to clarify,” said Al Hoffman, a Florida donor and former Republican National Committee finance chairman, who said he wants Jeb Bush to run but knows that’s unlikely. “There’s not one individual candidate that’s really grabbed me.”

When July 15th rolls around and all the numbers are public, here’s what the reports are likely to show:

MITT ROMNEY

The former Massachusetts governor might ultimately reach into his own bank account. He gave himself nearly $45 million for his failed 2008 bid, but for now he’s relying on the support of an extensive network derived from his church, business community contacts and the Republicans he’s never stopped courting since the last round.

“Romney is going to show very strong,” said former RNC Chairman Jim Nicholson, who remains uncommitted. “He’s in a field by himself.”

Another longtime Republican contributor who is still on the sidelines recalled Romney finance director Spencer Zwick showing up at his office to make the hard sell two years ago.

“Romney is constantly reaching out,” this contributor said.

Romney hauled in more than $10 million in a single call day last month and just in the month of June, he has more than 30 fundraising events lined up.

That includes a breakfast next week in New York City which, according to an invitation obtained by POLITICO, features 78 co-hosts, including finance titans such as Maurice Greenberg, Lew Eisenberg, Glenn Hubbard and John Whitehead.

The Republican is also aggressively raising money online and has quietly deployed surrogates to bring in cash. His son Tagg, for example, tweeted on Thursday that he just completed a 13-event Texas fundraising tour.

And Romney donors across the country say they’re beating campaign targets.

“In Missouri, we’re above our expectation, above our goal,” said Sam Fox, a former Bush donor and ambassador who helped stage a St. Louis event for Romney earlier this month.

Top advisers to the front-runner insist he’ll only raise upward of $20 million, and dismiss higher figures being thrown around. But some longtime Republicans expect him to bring in nearer to $40 million.

(Recall that Romney, with just over $2 million of his own money, raised $23.4 million in the initial fundraising quarter of the 2008 race). The ex-governor is also only raising money for the primary, so whatever he does bring in won’t be padded with general election dollars.

For a sense of proportion, the key number is $36.2 million. That was the record-shattering figure then-Gov. George W. Bush posted out of the gate in 1999, at a time when the maximum giving level was $1,000.

TIM PAWLENTY

The buzz among Republican insiders about Pawlenty’s money struggles has been growing for weeks.

And that was before a Washington Post story Wednesday detailing how some of Pawlenty’s top advisers were going without pay, and before news out of Iowa Thursday that he only paid the $15,000 minimum for a less-than-choice spot at the Ames Straw Poll. Now, the volume on the chatter has grown.

Sig Rogich, a Las Vegas donor and GOP strategist who has met with many of the candidates but remains undecided, said Pawlenty’s debate performance earlier this month also didn’t help.

“I think he lost some momentum there,” said Rogich, who insisted, “but he can recapture it.”

Pawlenty’s bigger challenge is that, for months, the anti-Romney swath of the donor class kept him at bay as they waited on white knights like Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour. Even though those two heavyweights decided not to run, many bundlers are still waiting to see whether Perry, the Texas governor, or anyone else jumps in late.

A Pawlenty aide low-balled the campaign’s goal, suggesting they raised as much for the quarter as they did for his political action committee in all of last year — $2 million — and compared their campaign with the underfunded winner of the 2008 Iowa caucuses.

“We are building a Huckabee-like model, which means we’re planning for a success in the early states and knowing that if we do that well, the money will come,” the aide said.

Pawlenty will almost certainly raise less than $10 million, party insiders say, and his quarterly sum may even hover around $5 million.

Still, an aide said they will take general election and primary dollars, meaning their sum could be boosted beyond what they can actually spend in the GOP contest.

MICHELE BACHMANN

The firebrand congresswoman, who officially declared her candidacy less than two weeks ago, has proven to be a hugely successful fundraiser through Internet donations. But she’s moving toward a new, tougher level of raking in campaign cash after relying throughout her congressional career on a small, core group of advisers and donors whose work could only take her so far.

A spokeswoman declined comment on what Bachmann’s numbers will look like. But they are likely to be less than $10 million. That includes a transfer of about $2 million that she’s expected to make from her congressional account into her presidential one, people familiar with her plans told POLITICO.

In the meantime, she’s said to be boosting her fundraising arm with professional rainmakers, whose work won’t be felt until the end of the third quarter.

Still, she has developed a strong national list and is effective at tapping it.

JON HUNTSMAN

Few Republicans have a feel for what the governor-turned-China ambassador will raise. Since he just got into the contest, he doesn’t even have to file a Federal Election Commission report next month. As of Thursday, Huntsman aides declined to say what they would do.

But the Republican certainly is acting like he’s planning to make a splash before the end-of-month deadline.

Initially, upon returning to the U.S., Huntsman said that he would do “no self-financing.” However, he indicated Wednesday in South Carolina that he had “put in a little bit to prime the pump.” Asked how much, he only said: “We’ll be disclosing that.”

He has 18 fundraising events planned over 10 days, beginning with a New York City event earlier this week that brought him $1.2 million.

Earlier this month, Nicholson scheduled a reception at his Washington law firm for Huntsman.

“He’s an extremely accomplished, bright person who has been a successful governor, successful ambassador to maybe the most important bilateral relationship we have,” said the former RNC chairman.

Added Rogich, who has also sat down with Huntsman: “Everyone who meets him comes away impressed. He’s got a dignified way about him.”

Huntsman isn’t soliciting general election dollars, officials said.

NEWT GINGRICH

The official line on the staff departures from Team Gingrich three weeks ago was a disagreement over strategy.

The real reason, according to many campaign insiders, was a lack of cash.

Gingrich has long been an agile fundraiser for his various unlimited committees, to which high rollers can write large checks. But he has not been able to do the same for his own campaign, according to the insiders.

Gingrich is still devoting hours to fundraising calls, his spokesman said this week after two paid fundraisers quit the listing campaign. But others familiar with the situation said he is doing little to shake the trees.

“He’s not picking up the phone,” one source said.

Not only is Gingrich expected to have raised little, the campaign has had a not-insignificant “burn rate” on its resources, the source said, and will show a debt.

THE REST

Should Sarah Palin get in, she’d have a ready-made network of low-dollar fundraisers to seed her campaign.

“She can raise enough money to burn a wet mule,” as Barbour put it to reporters at a GOP conference last weekend in New Orleans.

Herman Cain, who has put in some real groundwork in Iowa, told POLITICO he’ll show less than $5 million.

Rick Santorum, who opened his campaign at the start of the month, has a national fundraising list from his Senate days but is not expected to raise significant money.

And then there is Perry, who has an extensive network of Texas donors he’s been tapping over three gubernatorial races.

“Some of our donors are committed to other candidates and have had events,” noted Dave Carney, Perry’s top adviser. “That’s part of this effort in terms of assessing the situation.”

The governor huddled with some of his donors in Houston on Thursday amid speculation from potential rivals that he may use the unlimited contributions he’s hauled in to underwrite the early going of a presidential campaign.

Carney said the governor has always used his campaign fund to pay for in-state and out-of-state political travel but that that would change if he runs.

“If he’s a candidate, Texans for Rick Perry will not be paying for his travel,” Carney said.

He added that if Perry does run, he’ll jump in feet first.

“I can’t imagine any exploratory phase. He’ll make a decision this summer some time, and he’s either in or out.”