By John Tuohy

Mayor Greg Ballard has been silent about his political future. But a telling signal this week strongly indicated he is gearing up to run for a third term next year.

The clue? An email blast from Ballard's campaign staff — rather than the mayor's office — ballyhooing his recent accomplishments.

The email didn't say the Indianapolis mayor had declared his candidacy, but it read a lot like a campaign brochure.

"This week, Mayor Ballard noted the big things taking place to make Indy a safer and more attractive place," the notice read, then proceeded to list several initiatives.

"The Mayor swore in a new recruit class of 60 IMPD officers, urged approval of an innovative new charter school at the Juvenile Detention Center to help young people break the cycle of violence and criminal activity," the notice boasted.

Experts in political messaging saw the missive as the unofficial declaration Ballard is running again.

"That seems like a pre-emptive strike against any opponent who might try to criticize him on the violence in the city," said Kristina Sheeler, chair of communication studies at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis. "It sounds like he may want to get out in front of his message now."

Ballard is the presumed candidate for the Republican nomination in the 2015 municipal election but has declined to say whether he will run again and probably will hold off on an announcement until after the general election in November, said Kyle Walker, chairman of the Marion County Republican Party.

At the same time, the mayor needs to be ready to hit the trail quickly if he does run, Walker acknowledged.

"This should not be interpreted as a declaration of his candidacy," Walker said. "But it is also true that he has taken every step to maintain the viability of a candidacy."

Staying viable includes keeping a campaign organization intact and a campaign war chest replenished, Walker said. In a way, the unofficial campaign never stopped.

Ballard's campaign fund stood at $699,993 at the end of 2013, the latest filing available, but he also spent $203,000 during the year, according to the Marion County clerk's office.

The expenses included $108,000 in political consulting fees and thousands at political events or fundraisers, among them $24,161 at the Indianapolis Marriott Downtown on April 11 and $8,720 at the Eagle Creek Golf Club on July 8.

Walker said it would be accurate to "presume" the mayor was a candidate until he says he isn't running. On the other hand, Walker said the mayor "has not decided or announced."

"He hasn't been doing anything this term he hasn't done before," campaign-wise, Walker said.

If Ballard were to run and win, he would become the second-longest-serving mayor in Indianapolis history behind William Hudnut, who left office in 1992 after four terms. Democratic Mayor Bart Peterson lost his bid for a third term to upstart Ballard in 2007.

Marion County Democratic Party Chairman Joel Miller said, "I've always believed (Ballard) was going to run again."

"This may be the start," he said.

So far, Washington Township Trustee Frank Short, a Democrat, is the only one to announce a run for mayor.

But one experienced state legislator said Thursday he was almost certain he would be declaring his candidacy within six weeks.

Rep. Ed DeLaney, D-Indianapolis, said he would make crime a major campaign issue, the same topic Ballard highlighted in his campaign email.

"It is looking more and more likely — is very likely — I'll run, and I'm digesting information (about the city and Ballard) more and more rapidly," DeLaney said.

City-County Council President Maggie Lewis, a Democrat, has said she is exploring a run for mayor, and two other council Democrats, Vop Osili and John Barth, have been mentioned as possible candidates.

Lewis could not be reached for comment Thursday.

Ramla Bandele, an associate professor of political science at IUPUI, predicted Ballard would run "just because no other Republicans have stepped forward or even tried to step forward."

"If there was any doubt about his campaigning, you would think a lot of people would be putting feelers out," she said.

A rising homicide rate and a shortage of police officers probably have made Ballard vulnerable on crime, Bandele said.

"No opponent will let him walk away from it, so it would be a mistake if he doesn't address it," Bandele said.

Ballard's spokesman, Marc Lotter, defended the mayor's record on crime.

"He is addressing all the issues that contribute to crime," Lotter said. 'He has two police recruit classes, and he has been forging strong relationships with community groups that are affected by crime."

Call Star reporter John Tuohy at (317) 444-6418. Follow him on Twitter: @john_tuohy.