Getting Japan into the process quite late in 2013 both complicated negotiations and gave the US-led group serious economic heft. But the pro-growth and freer trade minister who led Japan's effort, Akira Amari, resigned last week over a political funding scandal which has raised questions about Japan's implementing process.

Vietnam, arguably the biggest winner from the TPP's trade liberalisation, has also just anointed a new leadership team which excluded the economic liberalising Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung who backed the communist country into the US-led trade pact. This is unlikely to delay Vietnam's ratification but could lead to problems with its implementation of some TPP provisions.

The relatively new government in Canada – which did not negotiate the deal – says it will sign up on Thursday but has not decided whether it will go through with ratification. And all the signs from the US presidential election campaign suggest that despite the US stewardship of the TPP, it will not go to the Congress for a vote until after the presidential vote in November.

But in Malaysia, where the government has been destabilised by a major corruption scandal and there has been a strong civil campaign against aspects of the TPP, the Parliament last week moved to ratify the agreement.

Trade ministers at the Atlanta meeting last year. TPP members include Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the US and Vietnam. Supplied

Kiwi Labour split

New Zealand's Labour Party has split over the deal in the lead up to this week's signing ceremony and Australia's opposition will come under fresh pressure to do the same when a group of 59 health, environment and union groups embark on a new anti-TPP campaign in Canberra on Wednesday as ministers arrive in New Zealand.

"Despite promises, the TPP has no effective enforceable labour rights and will expand the use of frequently-exploited temporary migrant workers without first testing for available local workers," says ACTU President Ged Kearney.


Robb, a strong supporter of the deal who nonetheless took it down to the line over less patent protection for biologic medicines than the US demanded, says Australia can't afford not to be part of an agreement which potentially creates a new regional regulatory framework for business with things like paperless trading, streamlined customs procedures and more seamless flow of data. He says these are still not well understood.

But the campaign against the TPP in Australia probably lost some of its steam when cigarette maker Philip Morris lost its case against Australia's plain packaging laws under the foreign investor protection procedures of an old bilateral investment agreement with Hong Kong. This has made the Investor State Dispute Settlement provisions in the TPP look less threatening to national government decision-making powers than some legal observers have argued.

AFR Graphic

The World Bank has underlined the complicated debate ahead with its study highlighting variable results for individual members ranging from a gross domestic product increase of less than one percentage point by 2030 for Australia compared with 10 percentage points for Vietnam and 8 percentage points for Malaysia.

But the bank also highlights how "as a new-generation, deep and comprehensive trade agreement, TPP addresses a wide range of complex trade policy issues that go beyond the scope of traditional trade agreements," although the benefits will depend on how it is actually implemented on the ground..

And it says: "Against the background of slowing trade growth,rising non-tariff impediments to trade, and insufficient progress in global negotiations, the TPP represents an important milestone.





