History and football culture would suggest that teams like the Vikings are well-positioned for the playoffs. The data, however, suggests otherwise.

The Vikings are the 25th team since 1970 to make the playoffs after ranking in the top-five in rushing yards and bottom-five in passing yards. None of the first 24 teams made the Super Bowl. Perhaps more importantly, Minnesota ranks just 25th in net yards per pass attempt — that means Minnesota’s low number of passing yards isn’t just a function of quantity, but of quality, too.

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Year Team Record Playoff Rec Rush Yd Rk Pass Yd Rk (From Bottom) NY/A Rk 2015 Minnesota Vikings 11-5 ?? 4 2 25 2013 San Francisco 49ers 12-4 2-1 3 3 10 2012 Minnesota Vikings 10-6 0-1 2 2 30 2011 Denver Broncos 8-8 1-1 1 2 29 2010 Kansas City Chiefs 10-6 0-1 1 3 23 2009 New York Jets 9-7 2-1 1 2 21 2008 Baltimore Ravens 11-5 2-1 4 5 17 2004 Atlanta Falcons 11-5 1-1 1 3 24 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers 15-1 1-1 2 5 8 2003 Baltimore Ravens 10-6 0-1 1 1 27 2001 New York Jets 10-6 0-1 4 3 18 1996 Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6 1-1 2 4 13 1995 Philadelphia Eagles 10-6 1-1 4 2 29 1994 Detroit Lions 9-7 0-1 3 5 14 1990 Chicago Bears 11-5 1-1 2 1 24 1986 Los Angeles Rams 10-6 0-1 4 1 21 1984 Los Angeles Rams 10-6 0-1 2 2 22 1984 Chicago Bears 10-6 1-1 1 3 13 1983 Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6 0-1 4 2 27 1982 Miami Dolphins 7-2 3-1 3 2 19 1982 New England Patriots 5-4 0-1 2 1 8 1979 Chicago Bears 10-6 0-1 5 3 20 1979 Houston Oilers 11-5 2-1 4 4 19 1972 Pittsburgh Steelers 11-3 1-1 2 5 22 1970 Detroit Lions 10-4 0-1 2 5 13

Seattle: A Dominant 10-6

The Seahawks are a little tougher to categorize, because they excel in every facet of the game but have a worse record than Minnesota. By most non-traditional measures, the Seahawks are much better than a typical No. 6 seed. Seattle ranks second in Pro-Football-Reference’s Simple Rating System, behind only the Arizona Cardinals. That’s the result of the No. 1 defense by SRS standards and the No. 3 offense. According to Football Outsiders, the Seahawks are the best team in football, with the No. 2 offense, No. 4 defense, and No. 3 special teams; Minnesota ranks 11th overall, courtesy of the 16th best offense, 14th best defense and fourth-ranked special teams. And, of course, Seattle is a 5-point road favorite on Sunday, implying that the Seahawks might be more than a touchdown better than the 11-5 Vikings on a neutral field. In short: Seattle is really good.

This Seahawks team evokes memories of the 2010 Packers: another truly excellent team in the regular season (led by a great young quarterback) that finished with “only” a 10-6 record. That Green Bay team outscored opponents by 148 points and went on to win the Super Bowl. The 2015 Seahawks? They have outscored opponents by 146 points. Seattle is just the seventh team in history to finish 10-6 but to outscore opponents by over 140 points, joining the 1993 49ers (+178), 1991 49ers (+154), 2010 Packers, 1985 49ers (+148), 1981 Eagles (+147), and 2009 Patriots (+142). By comparison, the Vikings have “only” outscored opponents by 63 points this year.

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A Unique Rematch

Five weeks ago, the Seahawks traveled to Minnesota, and beat the Vikings 38-7. How does the home team fare in a playoff rematch (against a non-division opponent) after losing at home in the regular season?

Generally speaking, pretty well, going 13-6 in those games since 1970. That, of course, is in part due to the home field generally being the better team in the playoffs, and the advantage that being at home brings. In only five of those games did the home team lose by at least 14 points in the regular season; the home team went 4-1 in the rematch in the playoffs. The one loss came in 2008, when the Miami Dolphins lost by 14 at home to Baltimore in the regular season, and then by 18 at home to the Ravens in the playoffs.

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However, Seattle beat Minnesota by 31 points. Only two of those 19 games involved the home team losing by more than 14 the first time around, and both of those games were not particularly relevant. In the 2009 season finale, Arizona lost at home to Green Bay, 33-7, but it was a game in which the Cardinals rested their starters. And in 1987, Denver lost to Houston 40-10, but the game involved replacement players. In other words, given the magnitude of Seattle’s victory earlier this season, this game is a true outlier when it comes to predicting what will happen Sunday. It simply hasn’t happened in modern NFL history that a team got blown out at home by a non-division rival, and then faced that opponent at home again in the playoffs.

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Peterson vs. Seattle Rush D

Finally, since the Seahawks led the NFL in rush defense, this will mark just the sixth playoff game since 1970 between the league’s leading rusher and top rush defense. What happened in the first four?

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• In 1979, Earl Campbell led the league in rushing, while the Broncos posted the NFL’s top run defense. The Oilers hosted Denver in the first round of the playoffs, and won 13-7. The Broncos did contain Campbell, though, who finished with only 50 yards (and a touchdown) on 16 carries.

• In 1983, Eric Dickerson led the NFL in rushing while playing for the Rams. In the playoffs, Los Angeles traveled to Washington to face the league’s top rushing defense. The game turned out to be a dud: Washington crushed L.A., 51-7, and Dickerson rushed for just 16 yards on 10 carries.

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• In 2003, Jamal Lewis rushed for over 2,000 yards. In the Wild Card round, the Ravens faced the Titans, who limited opposing teams to just 1,295 rushing yards all year. Tennessee won the game on a last-minute field goal, and also won the other battle: Lewis was held to only 35 yards on 14 carries.

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• In 2004, Curtis Martin led the NFL in rushing, and the Jets faced the top-ranked Steelers rush defense in the playoffs. Martin rushed 19 times for 77 yards in the game, but Pittsburgh won in overtime after the Jets missed two field goals in the final minutes.

• Last year, as hard as it may be to fathom now, DeMarco Murray led the NFL in rushing. The Cowboys faced the Lions in the playoffs, owners of the league’s top rush defense. Murray ran 19 times for 75 yards and a touchdown, and Dallas won the game on a touchdown pass in the final minutes.