Whatever the result of the Australian election, it is an unmitigated disaster for Malcolm Turnbull. He promised one thing – stability – but the only thing this election has delivered for sure is ongoing political uncertainty.



The result is on a knife edge. The Coalition may lose its majority. That would plunge the country into another election campaign, having just endured eight weeks on the hustings. The only alternative is what Turnbull himself insisted would be the “chaos” of a minority government – an outcome he told Australians would be a national calamity and something he would never even contemplate.

The Coalition may retain a narrow majority – the result Turnbull is now predicting. But that would be a calamity for his leadership, the starting gun for another bout of internal instability.

To vindicate his leadership coup, assert his authority over the Liberals’ conservative wing and cement his own future Turnbull needed to do better than this; much, much better.

The Liberal party reluctantly returned to him and toppled a first term prime minister, Tony Abbott, for one simple reason – they were facing certain defeat at this election and they thought Turnbull’s popularity would reverse their fortunes. It hasn’t.

And after changing the voting laws and dissolving the entire Senate, he faces an upper house just as unwieldy as the one he dissolved, with Pauline Hanson, Jacqui Lambie, Derryn Hinch and Nick Xenophon’s senators likely to be among the eclectic crew sharing the balance of power.

Turnbull does not even have the numbers to pass the industrial legislation that was the ostensible reason for calling a double dissolution election. In the lower house, even if he wins, he’ll be just a few scandals or byelections from losing his majority.

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And even if Bill Shorten loses the election, he emerges triumphant. In just one term and against all expectations he has taken the demoralised Labor party to the verge of victory against a leader most thought was invincible. His continuation in the Labor leadership is almost certainly ensured.

As the count wore on and the result grew more uncertain, Shorten was the first to emerge to deliver what sounded like a victory speech. “Labor is back,” he declared and followed with a lethal charge against the Coalition: “They have lost their mandate.”

Turnbull did not appear until well after midnight and his speech was brittle and defensive, full of justifications and explanations.

He told his supporters he was confident he would eventually form a majority government, but blamed the close result on Labor’s campaign “lies” and “shameful” and underhand campaign tactics, which he claimed the police would investigate.

He began his defence against the internal critics questioning his decision to call the double dissolution election. Because even as the count was proceeding, the backlash and recriminations from the Abbott camp were starting, with warnings of a party room revolt against Turnbull’s budget changes to superannuation.

Sacked Abbott minister senator Eric Abetz blamed the super policy, in part, for the party’s shock result saying: “I for one will be advocating that we reconsider aspects of it, clearly it has hurt our core constituency, those people who have scrimped and saved for their retirement.”

Abbott’s former chief of staff Peta Credlin, sitting on the Sky news election night panel said: “I guarantee you [the superannuation changes] will not go through the party room in the current format.”

The Victorian Liberal president, Michael Kroger, said his branch had been “deluged with complaints” and he “hopes the party room will look at this issue”. He said that between Turnbull taking the leadership and the budget in May the Coalition had meandered and “lost its economic leadership”.

Predictably, conservative commentators such as Andrew Bolt, who have always railed against the small-l Liberal Turnbull, immediately started calling for his resignation.

Far more likely, if he does form a government, Turnbull’s authority will be slowly eroded. Getting rolled on superannuation would be a deep humiliation. His ability to win internal arguments on climate change or marriage equality will be diminished.

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Turnbull faced the fiercest swings in regions with lower average incomes and high unemployment – in Tasmania, western Sydney, regional New South Wales, the Northern Territory and northern Queensland. These were the places where Shorten’s assurances about health and education spending and warnings about the Liberal’s plans for Medicare had the deepest resonance.

Credlin noted pointedly these were exactly the areas where Abbott was popular. “He resonates in the places where Labor has made gains,” she said.

There were some other factors at play, of course. In South Australia, disaffected voters flocked to Nick Xenophon’s party and in Queensland to Pauline Hanson. Preferences from independents and the Greens were behind Labor’s better than expected showing – its primary vote was very low. In Queensland in particular, Hanson preferences helped Labor gain seats they had almost given up on.

As the count wore on, more and more Liberals railed against Labor’s late campaign Medicare “scare”. “It’s a lie ... Labor has been boasting about this monstrous lie at the heart of its campaign,” the deputy Liberal leader, Julie Bishop, fumed. But the result must be seen as a verdict on the two leaders’ core messaging.

And despite having signed a “pledge” early in the campaign to do no deals with minor parties to form government, each leader may be confronted with exactly that prospect – putting the lower house independents Cathy McGowan, Bob Katter, Andrew Wilkie, the new Nick Xenophon Team MP Rebekha Sharkie and the Green’s Adam Bandt in the hot seat.

It could take weeks before Australians know who will form the next government.

Malcolm Turnbull’s small target “plan”, his strategy to coast to victory on the strength of his personal popularity and assertions that he alone could manage the economy in uncertain times did not convince Australian voters. Shorten made gains with his spending promises on health and education.

If Shorten loses this election, he wins politically.

And even if he pulls off a narrow victory, Turnbull loses.