13:24

We have received a briefing from the monarch of UK psephologists, Prof Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University, about what might happen in the election, and the short version is this: while there are many imponderables in play, it seems a toss-up between a Boris Johnson majority and a hung parliament.

Curtice said it was “pretty much a binary contest” between the two. And what of a Labour majority? The answer will not be welcomed by Jeremy Corbyn:

The chances of a Labour majority are as close to zero as it is possible to be.

He said the issues for Labour included Corbyn’s personal unpopularity with voters (although he also noted that Johnson was “the most unpopular new prime minister in polling history”), and the fact that they had lost both remain and leave votes through a middle-ground approach to Brexit. Curtice said:

Where they have demonstrated Blairite moderation is the one issue on which you shouldn’t demonstrate Blairite moderation, as it won’t get you anywhere.

The current Tory lead of about 10 percentage points would most likely be enough for Boris Johnson, Curtice said.

With a 10-point lead, however you look at it, if that was to transpire in the ballot box it would be highly likely the Conservatives would win a majority of a size that would be sufficient to get the withdrawal treaty through.

But given the likelihood the Tories will lose a “fair chunk” of seats in Scotland and to the Lib Dems, Johnson needed to keep the lead above about six or seven percentage points:

If it get below that, the odds are beginning to swing in favour of a hung parliament. So be aware: just because the Tories are ahead in the polls, it doesn’t mean to say that Boris is going to get a majority.

The key battle in northern Tory target seats, he said, would be for the Conservatives to hang on to gains made by Theresa May in 2017, and for the Lib Dems to take seats from Labour. Curtice said: “Boris Johnson would love the Liberal Democrats to go up.”

The one exception to the binary end point, he noted, would be the very particular result where the Tories won 320 or so seats, just below a working majority, and the DUP held the balance. With the Northern Irish party wanting neither to support Corbyn or back Johnson’s Brexit deal, this could bring a new deadlock.