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Calgary business leaders had the rare opportunity to hear Mohamed El-Erian, among the world’s leading economists, issue his forecast for 2018 on Thursday night.

The Calgary event, hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst Society in Canada, is annually the organization’s most successful. And this week’s gathering — its 41st — was likely among the best.

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El-Erian is not bullish about oil prices.

It was as if he’d been given a preview of International Energy Agency numbers released Friday, which forecast U.S. crude production to not only reach record levels, but surpass Saudi Arabia and challenge Russia as the world’s largest oil producer.

The report also stated this rise in production — despite previous OPEC cuts and increased demand — was unlikely to be offset by drops in Venezuelan production or decline rates in other fields around the world.

El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of Pacific Investment Management Company where he was CEO and co-chief investment officer between 2007 and 2014, cited the expected growth in production as a key reason oil prices are unlikely to continue rising.