Back in February, Jose Bautista took a large, unnecessary risk.

Instead of saying what good players on the cusp of free agency usually say – something about loving the organization, wanting to stay and leaving the tax implications in God's hands etc, etc. – the Toronto Blue Jays outfielder went hardball.

"I don't think there should be any negotiation. I think I've proved myself. The question has been asked – 'What will it take?' – and I've given them an answer," Bautista said. "It shouldn't be pull-and-tug about a few dollars here or there … They either meet it, or it is what it is."

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Nobody's sure where the "pull-and-tug" over dollars starts exactly, but it was something in the five-year, $150-million (U.S.) range.

That scrum outside the Blue Jays clubhouse in Dunedin remains peak Bautista. This wasn't an off-the-cuff outburst. It was an act of calculated defiance. Sensing the weakness of a new, unpopular management regime, Bautista was attempting to put them in a public-relations headlock.

It didn't work. Rather the opposite. Thus far, it's backfired spectacularly.

The key question about any major Bautista extension is 'Will he hold up?' A great deal is made of his physical conditioning, but apparently no amount of exercise can stave off the combined effects of everyday baseball and imminent middle age.

Over half a season, it is impossible not to notice how much the 35-year-old has declined. He's missed nearly a third of the Jays' games through injury. His offensive numbers are reduced across the board. Even when healthy, he is a much less effective fielder.

Bautista remains an elite talent, but it's clear that staying at that level isn't going to get more difficult. It's already very difficult.

Having recognized that fact himself, Bautista changed tacks. It's no longer about baseball, per se. It's about his value to the franchise as a brand.

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"Going back to being an asset, we generate revenue. How much of that does a team want to share with a player? And for a player like me, I'm also in a unique position where I truly believe that's not going to stop when I take the uniform off," Bautista told Sports Illustrated last month. "I'm there in all the offensive record categories for the team, and I like to think I'm one of those players who's not just intellectually but also baseball savvy and can bring something to the table postcareer. Having all those things in perspective, I just don't see how our organization would not see me as an attractive piece."

Apparently, Bautista wants to be treated as a shareholder rather than an employee. Call it the Derek Jeter model.

That might work were it not for Edwin Encarnacion.

Both men are fundamentally the same player at the same stage of their careers. Both are impending free agents. The Jays can only realistically afford to keep one. As such, the pair has been in competition for the entire year. Encarnacion is winning, on every level.

Unlike Bautista, Encarnacion didn't say much in spring training. The Blue Jays first baseman/DH went the safe route – "Of course I want to stay with this team. I love this team, I love this city, but it [doesn't] depend on me." He showed no obvious distress when a new deal wasn't done before opening day.

He hasn't talked about it since. Instead, he's put up huge numbers and allowed other people to act as his hype men.

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"The Red Sox know they need to bring [power] to the middle of the lineup," retiring Boston legend David Ortiz told reporters at last week's All-Star Game. "And sorry Blue Jays, but who better than Encarnacion to do that?" That, right there, was the tipping point. That was the market stepping into the middle of a domestic bother and telling Toronto what's what.

Imagine someone asks you, "Which would you prefer to keep – Object A or (very similar) Object B?" You'll weigh both of them in your hands. You'll dither. At the point when someone else shows up and says, "I'll take Object B if you don't want it," you'll forget all about Object A.

You don't determine the value of things you already possess. The market does. And in a business based not in smart choices, but in choices that look smart, you'll adapt your desires to whatever it tells you.

We can argue over which of the two players is the better long-term choice, but we've now decided which one is the safe bet. It's the one other people want to take away.

Things could change over the next three months. Bautista could return and go on an unholy tear. Encarnacion could get badly hurt.

But it is now hard to envision a circumstance in which signing Bautista over Encarnacion can be sold to the fans as the wisest choice. It doesn't matter how much people love Bautista (and they do). They love winning more.

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If Bautista had gone the Encarnacion route back in Dunedin, he'd have some wiggle room. But we know roughly what his number is. He's already said he won't negotiate it.

Someone will still want Bautista. He's going to make a lot of money in the off-season. But it's not going to be in Toronto, and it's not going to be anywhere close to the starting figure.

He's made it easy for the Jays to shrug their shoulders and say something like, "We would've loved to have kept him, but he made it impossible for us."

Of course, Bautista could always climb down south of nine figures. Having observed the man over the years, that is more unlikely than any other scenario.

If he'd waited a year before doing his current deal, he'd be about $100-million richer right now. But he refused to gamble on himself. That is the key fact driving all current considerations.

It may be that sense of having lost out that drove Bautista to come at his next contract so aggressively. Ironically, by employing a diametrically opposite tactic this time around, he's ended up in the same losing position.

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