The merge is coming this week, and I couldn’t be more excited for what looks to be a fantastic second half of Survivor 30. As I wrote before the premier, there’s something special about three tribe seasons that makes the post-merge game more unpredictable, and that looks to be the case again this season. With so many moving parts out there before the merge happens, I wanted to break down a few possibilities of how the merge may play out for the next couple of votes.

Scenario 1: Original Collar Tribes Prevail

Let’s first take stock of where the original tribes now stand. We have five blue collars remaining, four no collars, and three white collars. Let’s analyze the blue collars first. It seems obvious that Mike and Dan are locked into an alliance and that Kelly is ready to join them again once they merge. That leaves Rodney and Sierra as the two wild cards. Sierra has been explicit in saying she doesn’t trust the blue collar tribe, while Rodney can’t be too happy that Mike ended his blossoming bromance prematurely.

Each have the potential of leaving, and we’ll get to those scenarios later. But for now, let’s assume that Rodney comes back to Blue Collar because he has nowhere else to go. The only people he’s played with so far besides blue collar are Tyler and Joe, and while he did vote with Tyler, we didn’t see much interaction between the two. As for Sierra, being on the same team and Dan and Rodney would be a huge bummer, but if it puts her on the right side of the numbers, it gives her an incentive to stay.

It’s much easier to see the no collar tribe sticking together. If Mike and Kelly are regarded as the closest twosome in the game, then Jenn, Hali and Joe are the strongest threesome. Add in Will, who like Rodney, doesn’t have much of a relationship with the rest of the people in the game besides his own tribe, and there’s a solid four. So if the blue collars and no collars both stick together, the vote may come down to who can pick up the remaining three white collars. It looks like no collar has the inside track, as Carolyn voted with the no collars, while Tyler voted against the blue collars. Given Tyler and Carolyn’s tight relationship, those two joining the no collars would make six, and it would be up to Shirin on whether to join her former white collar tribemates, or join team blue collar and cause a tie.

Scenario 2: Recent Alliances Hold Weight

A big question that we may get an answer to on Wednesday is whether Joe’s decision to vote with Mike, Dan and Sierra was a relationship of convenience, or if they formed a bond that could take the group far in the game. Going off that, let’s examine who was on which side of the vote for the two votes that occurred since the tribe swap. The first vote, in which Max was eliminated, saw Jenn, Hali, Will, Carolyn and Kelly vote for Max, while Max and Shirin voted Will. The second vote was the aforementioned three blue collars and Joe taking out Joaquin, with Rodney and Tyler left on the wrong side of the vote.

I see two events to take place with 99% certainty: Kelly going back to the blue collars and Joe going back to the no collars. Assuming that happens, why wouldn’t the blue and no collars just join together? Joe has a connection with blue, Kelly voted with the no collars, and together they’d form an easy eight person alliance. (Mike, Dan, Kelly, Sierra and Joe, Jenn, Hali, Will). While they wouldn’t need any more people on their side, it’s likely that Carolyn would keep her alliance with the no collars and then bring Tyler along with her. In that scenario, the two people on the chopping block for this week would be Rodney and Shirin.

Scenario 3: Sierra Holds, Then Shuffles, the Cards

It’s quite interesting to see someone with a minimal impact on the game over the first few votes encounter two weeks in a row where she might be the most important person of the episode. We all know that Sierra is highly suspicious of aligning herself with the blue collar tribe: she hates Dan and Rodney and doesn’t totally trust Mike and Kelly after she received two votes when Lindsay was sent home. So if she leaves, where could she go?

Right to Joe, perhaps. It’s possible that one of, if not the biggest, reasons Sierra ultimately voted for Joaquin last week was because Joe helped sway her. We only got a snippet in the episode, but it seemed like her and Joe were getting comfortable with eachother on the beach. If she a) wants to follow Joe and b) separate herself from the blue collars, she could do both by joining the four remaining no collars. And after being the only woman on the blue tribe for the past two episodes, Sierra will probably jump at the chance to align with Jenn and Hali. Then, assuming Rodney heads back to blue collar in this scenario, it leaves, again, the three white collars as the deciding free agents. Given that Carolyn voted with the no collars, it’s likely she would align with the group of five, plus Tyler, to form a majority alliance of seven.

Scenario 4: Joining Alliances Strategically

On the other hand, I can also see Carolyn and Tyler joining with the blues. They’re going to be at the bottom of any alliance they join. So the reasoning goes, instead of joining the alliance you’re already close with, join the opposite one. That way, when it gets down to a couple people left on the minority alliance, it’s easier to link up with them based on previous relationships. Playing this out a little bit, let’s say the five blue collars and Tyler and Carolyn vote off Joe, Will and Shirin, leaving Jenn and Hali as the remaining alliance. Carolyn and Tyler could then attempt to align with those two plus Sierra, putting them into a majority alliance. Otherwise, Carolyn and Tyler would be at the bottom of the no collar alliance and be trying to pull over blue collar people who they don’t know as well.

Scenario 5: Stragglers vs. Establishment

I think two groups are certain in the merge: Mike, Dan and Kelly, and Joe, Jenn and Hali. Everyone else could just as easily form alliances in any direction. Another scenario I could see happening is the stragglers banding together. Sierra thinks she’s the lowest in the blue collar alliance. Will surely knows he’s fourth in line in the no collar alliance. Rodney is mad his bro got voted off. The three of them could band together with Shirin, Tyler and Carolyn to form a group of six against the two threesomes. This would probably lead to the most exciting vote, especially if there’s a tie and we have to go down to choosing rocks.

Prediction

So which one do I see playing out? I’m going with Scenario 3. I don’t think Sierra can stand Rodney and Dan much longer and she’ll happily jump at the chance to align with people that share her age and interests in Jenn, Hali and Joe. Since Carolyn has an existing relationship with the no collars, she pulls Tyler along to form six surefire alliance members. From there, they only need one of Shirin or Will to complete the majority alliance, and if not, the worst case is a tie. If they’re able to pull in Will and Shirin, that gives them 8, and they can split the vote 4-4 to account for any idols. Targets to go home first? Rodney for being Rodney, Mike for being a physical and strategic threat.