Elections BC has released some initial referendum numbers

We won’t know the results of the B.C. electoral referendum until December 7 at the earliest (when the packages are due), but some recent statistics released by Elections BC might give us an indication on what we can expect.

According to the non-partisan office, 1,060,000 packages had been returned as of yesterday. That’s equal to about 32 percent of those that were initially sent out.

Of course, some electoral districts have been a lot better about getting their ballots in than others.

And because the decision essentially pits supporters of the BC Liberal Party against those that tend to side with the BC NDP or the Green Party, we can assume that regions that voted for either party in the 2017 provincial election would tend to lean that party’s preferred way in the referendum.

Here are the top 10 regions in terms of packages returned to Elections BC, and the percentage of vote that the winning party in 2017 achieved.

Parksville-Qualicum – 18,656; Liberal – 45.37%

Saanich North and the Islands – 17,482; Green – 41.95%

Courtenay-Comox – 15,258; NDP – 37.36%

Vernon-Monashee – 14,893; Liberal – 47.87%

Kamloops-South Thompson – 14,745; Liberal – 56.56%

Kelowna-Mission – 14,200; Liberal – 57.64%

Penticton – 14, 187; Liberal – 53.55%

Shuswap – 13,470; Liberal – 56.09%

Victoria-Beacon Hill – 13,436; NDP – 53.05%

Nanaimo – 13,432; NDP – 46.54%

And the bottom 10:

North Coast – 2,543; NDP – 57.31%

Stikine – 3,104; NDP – 51.1%

Surrey-Green Timbers – 4,001; NDP – 58.19%

Nechako Lakes – 4,123; Liberal – 54.51%

Skeena – 4,271; Liberal – 53.16%

Surrey-Newton – 4,466; NDP – 57.37%

Peace River South – 4,811; Liberal – 75.63%

Surrey-Whalley – 5,159; NDP - 58.37%

Cariboo North – 5,753; Liberal – 51.4%

Surrey-Guildford – 6,049; NDP – 49.6%

Of course, regions with more people are always going to have more voters, but it’s important to remember that, unlike every other election that takes place in B.C., the results of the referendum will come through with a percentage amount from the entire province.

That is to say, winning a riding won’t matter, only the popular vote will.

It seems that, so far at least, regions that voted Liberal in the last provincial election are more active in voting in the referendum.

When we look at the top and bottom 10 in terms of percentage of registered voters that have filed their voting packages, not a lot changes in that regard.

Top 10:

Parksville-Qualicum – 39.97%; Liberal – 45.37%

Sannich North and the Islands – 35.92%; Green – 41.95%

Courtenay-Comox – 34.21%; NDP – 37.36%

Nelson-Creston – 34.20%; NDP – 41.85%

Kamloops-South Thompson – 33.31%; Liberal – 56.56%

West Vancouver-Capilano – 33.24%; Liberal – 57.14%

Powell River-Sunshine Coast – 32.41%; NDP – 50.7%

Delta South – 32.20%; Liberal – 44.5%

Vancouver-Quilchena – 31.92%; Liberal – 55.96%

Boundary-Similkameen – 31.90%; Liberal – 42.8%

Bottom 10:

Surrey-Green Timbers – 14.18%; NDP – 58.19%

Surrey-Whalley – 14.60%; NDP - 58.37%

Surrey-Newton – 15.46%; NDP – 57.37%

North Coast – 17.06%; NDP – 57.31%

Surrey-Panorama – 17.29%; NDP – 50.53%

Surrey-Guildford – 17.60%; NDP – 49.6%

Surrey-Fleetwood – 17.99%; NDP – 53.42%

Burnaby-Edmonds – 19.81%; NDP – 54.25%

Vancouver-Kingsway – 20.63%; NDP – 60.07%

Richmond-Queensborough – 20.78%; Liberal – 41.74%

Though this is a small sample, the numbers here don’t seem to indicate that B.C. will see majority of voters opt for proportional representation over the current first-past-the-post system.

Also, get the vote out, Surrey. This isn't a good look.

All statistics via Elections BC.