It’s Disney vs Disney shooting for first place this weekend, as the family fantasy A Wrinkle in Time will try and score a first place debut against Black Panther in its fourth weekend. Meanwhile, several independent studios are also opening several smaller titles; Aviron Pictures’ The Strangers: Prey at Night, Entertainment Studios’ The Hurricane Heist, and STX’s Gringo.

A Wrinkle in Time, carrying a budget of $103 million, is hoping for a debut of over $35 million this weekend, which would likely be enough to land in first. Unfortunately, a number of factors could prevent this from happening; Time will have to share premium theaters and IMAX screens with Black Panther, as well as a weak 46% on Rotten Tomatoes. Granted, family films don’t tend to rely on critical reception too much, and there’s not much in the way of competition (with the exception of Peter Rabbit, which is entering its fifth weekend). All of this considered, Wrinkle may wind up below $30 million.

Black Panther is hoping for a weekend of around $35-$40 million in its fourth outing. The film has consistently come in on the higher end of tracking, however, and as a result something around $38 million for the weekend seems probable, enough to hold on to first place once again.

Among the newcomers, horror sequel The Strangers: Prey at Night will most likely come out on top with high single digits. Despite the whopping ten year gap between the original, horror titles with any sort of name recognition tend to do just fine. STX’s Gringo also opens, but the strange premise, poor reviews and competition from Game Night will likely prevent it from breaking past $5 million for the weekend.

Also opening is The Hurricane Heist, a somewhat baffling title that inexplicably cost $40 million to produce, yet will likely open to around $5-$7 million this weekend. Entertainment Studios has had one hit in the form of 47 Meters Down, followed by uber-flop Friend Request and a weak showing from Hostiles, which has yet to recoup its $39 million budget. It doesn’t seem as though Heist is going to end that losing streak.

Predictions

Black Panther – $37.5M A Wrinkle in Time – $35M The Strangers: Prey at Night – $8M Red Sparrow – $7.8M Peter Rabbit – $7.2M Game Night – $6.9M Death Wish – $5.5M The Hurricane Heist – $4M Gringo – $3.2M