A happier time. (Photo credit: Greg Fiume)

Less than a day after the Caps dropped their second game of the series to Tampa Bay, Bruce Boudreau was asked to assess the state of his club:

“We’re not panicking here. We’re not moving everybody all over the place. We switched lines around because Mike [Knuble] was back in the lineup and we’ll go with that lineup again tomorrow.”

I’m with Bruce on the no panicking part. After all, all three times a team has taken a 2-0 lead on the road against the Washington Capitals, that team has gone on to lose the series. Where he loses me is doing the same thing but expecting different results — especially when there are better options out there.

Earlier this season I looked at all the different line combinations that Boudreau has used to spark the offense, and that got me to thinking how one might optimize their roster. For instance, does Chimera’s speed justify putting him on the top line? Or is Laich the key to having a good secondary scoring line? Perhaps the answer to the latter is yes, but when you are down two games to nothing in the playoffs you have to go with the line combos that have performed the best. Some of you have asked for who my ideal line combos would be, so here they are.

First, I need to address the issue of sample size. With all of Boudreau’s line combinations, there are some that have spent more time together than others, thus we can be more certain of their true impact. I will look only at those combinations that have spent more than 20 minutes on the ice together at even strength, which encompasses around 25 shifts. Boudreau has pulled combos within three shifts on the ice together, so using more than a game’s worth is not something I consider too far fetched. However, just as Holtby sympathizers will argue to ride the “hot hand,” I too will argue that with home-ice advantage squandered it’s time to go all in– and that includes those lines that have seen the best success even if they have had limited time together.

To make my recommendations I looked at a few metrics, the first being scoring chance percentage (SC%), which is simply a ratio of how many even strength scoring chances go in Washington’s favor when this trio is on the ice. Conversion rate is how many goals are scored off of those scoring chances, while Rel Corsi QoC is a metric that helps gauge the quality of competition faced. With all of these numbers, higher is better. I will also include average shot and goal distance to get a sense of if they prefer to work from the perimeter or crash the net. All data will be during even strength, unless otherwise noted.

Line Combo SC% Convert% Avg Shot Distance Avg Goal Distance Rel Corsi QoC Ovechkin-Backstrom-Fehr 61.5% 18.8% 30.1 35.7 2.71

The top line has seen many iterations, but it has always had one consistent element: Alexander Ovechkin. Despite Backstrom’s troubles he remains the best fit for riding shotgun, which leaves room for one more. Mike Knuble has been given the most time as the third wheel, but due to either his age or deteriorated skill he looks to be a liability for this line. The Chimera Experiment was (thankfully) short lived and while injury perhaps cost him an extended audition for the top spot, I think Eric Fehr has shown more than an ability to not only create chances, but to finish them as well.

Line Combo SC% Convert% Avg Shot Distance Avg Goal Distance Rel Corsi QoC Semin-Arnott-Laich 73.1% 10.5% 36.8 24.7 3.04

The second line is easy, and it starts with Alex Semin. Semin is a rare talent that can put points on the board, and despite frustrating fans and coached alike with stick penalties in the offensive zone, when it comes to goal scoring, there are few peers. When Jason Arnott came over in a trade for David Steckel, he quickly assumed the mantle of The Sasha Whisperer, almost exorcising #BadShasha once and for all. Add Brooks Laich to the mix and you have a second line that has the potential of keeping up with most other team’s first lines in scoring.

Line Combo SC% Convert% Avg Shot Distance Avg Goal Distance Rel Corsi QoC Sturm-MJ90-Chimera 50.0% 0.0% 35.9 39 0.57 Knuble-MJ90-Chimera 58.1% 11.1% 39 23.2 2.12

Rookie Marcus Johannson has, by all accounts, had a solid inaugural season. He filled in admirably for Backstrom when the Super Swede went down with injury, and has held his own in the faceoff circle. During Game 5 of the Ranger series, we saw MJ90 had a second gear as he scooted down the ice, keeping pace with Chimera on a two on one breakaway that Chimera’s hands of Venus de Milo just couldn’t finish. Still, these two form the cornerstone of the third line, but the third forward is a toss up between Mike Knuble and Marco Sturm.

Line Combo SC% Convert% Avg Shot Distance Avg Goal Distance Rel Corsi QoC Hendricks-BGordon-Bradley 55.2% 9.4% 35.8 28 -1.04

The fourth line serves a purpose beyond scoring: don’t give up goals against and generate energy. This line takes the majority of defensive zone draws that Backstrom doesn’t and will fight for your honor if the situation warrants. It comes down to grit, and there has been no better combination than Matt Hendricks, Boyd Gordon and Matt Bradley.

Sometimes you believe in the stats. Sometimes you believe in the players. Sometimes you should just throw caution to the wind and roll the dice with the best options you have.

Additional reporting by Chris Gordon and Ian Oland.