Fantasy Trade Advice

Of the first 12 RBs drafted in fantasy football this season (based on Average Draft Position), how many do you think are in ­the top 12 in RB fantasy points after 3 weeks? Ten? Five?

Try three.

Thinking the first 12 WRs drafted must be doing better? Think again. Only four are in the top 12 at their position.

And I haven’t even shared the mind blowing numbers yet.

If you want to see how deep the rabbit hole of variance goes, and learn how you can use it to your advantage on the trade market, then this article is for you.

Variance like No Other

I mentioned that just 3 of the first 12 RBs drafted are in the top 12 in fantasy points. What about the other 9? Are they at least close to the top 12? I hope you’re ready for some true absurdity:

None of the other 9 RBs are in the top 17 in fantasy points scored among RBs through Week 3. Six of those 9 are outside the top 30, and that doesn’t even include Le’Veon Bell, who we knew would be suspended.

I also mentioned that just 4 of the first 12 WRs drafted are in the top 12 in WR fantasy points. So where are the other 8? Well, WRs are least a tiny bit better; two of the remaining 8 are in the top 15 at their position. The good news runs out after that though: the rest are all outside the top 21.

What about QBs? Can they be our saving grace? Our predictions have to be at least decent for a position of such consistency, right?

Again, not even close. Of the top 5 QBs drafted, just one is currently in the top 10, let alone in the top 5.

If you read my draft strategy post from last month, you may remember that I linked an article showing the sheer unpredictability of individual player performances. That is precisely where we are today. But fear not; we can navigate through this mess and figure out what to do on the trade market.

Important points before we jump into each position:

I am almost never going to advocate trading away any of the players I discuss below. You win fantasy football leagues by accumulating studs. If you drafted one of these players and they are performing well, then there is no reason to get rid of them. If, however, they are underperforming, you have to stay the course. Selling low on your stud players is a surefire way to eliminate yourself from championship contention. There may be rare exceptions, but as I discussed in rule #3 of my trading survival guide: economics is king. Buy low, sell high. You wouldn’t buy Boardwalk only to trade it three turns later for $5 and a get out of jail free card just because no one was landing on it, would you?

Yes, it has only been 3 weeks, and yes, variance will even out, and our predictions will look at least slightly better at the end of the season than they do now. But remember rule #2 of my survival guide: anticipate expectations. People let emotion cloud their judgement when making fantasy football decisions. They are too susceptible to “what have you done for me lately.”

Or, put another way:

Rest assured, that crying baby is inside every single 0-3 fantasy owner right now, and that’s what we are exploiting. All of my statistics in this article are based on full PPR scoring. Adjust as necessary. With that, let’s jump into the positions, starting with the easy one.

Quarterbacks

There were really only two bona fide, stud QBs going into this season. However, I’ll look at the first five drafted in this article. Here’s how they have fared:

Name Preseason Draft Position Current Rank Trade Target? Andrew Luck QB1 QB12 Yes Aaron Rodgers QB2 QB3 No Peyton Manning QB3 QB20 No Drew Brees QB4 QB30* No Russell Wilson QB5 QB11 Yes

*missed time due to injury/suspension

Let’s look at the easy one first: Rodgers. He is who we thought he was, which means there is no value to be had in a trade. You aren’t going to trade him away and you sure aren’t going to be getting a discount if you trade for him.

Luck and Wilson are somewhat similar: both possess huge upside, but both have been significantly hindered by terrible offensive line play. They are definitely worth dice throws if your team needs some more upside, and they can potentially be had at a discount. I could be wrong, but I believe that gambling on players of their talent level to bounce back is a good idea.

Manning and Brees aren’t worth much discussion here. If you took them, you don’t have much choice other than keeping them and hoping their value goes up. If you didn’t take them, there’s really no point in trading for one; you are better off combing the waiver wire or trading for a QB with less of a pedigree.

In summary : if you want to trade for a stud QB at a discount, target Luck or Wilson.

Running Backs

How ridiculous is this:

Name Preseason Draft Position Current Rank Trade Target? Le’Veon Bell RB1 RB40* No Adrian Peterson RB2 RB5 No Jamaal Charles RB3 RB1 No Eddie Lacy RB4 RB35* Yes Marshawn Lynch RB5 RB33* No C.J. Anderson RB6 RB55 (!) No Matt Forte RB7 RB8 No DeMarco Murray RB8 RB32* No Jeremy Hill RB9 RB43 Yes LeSean McCoy RB10 RB18 No Justin Forsett RB11 RB30 Yes Lamar Miller RB12 RB36* Yes

*missed time due to injury/suspension

Eddie Lacy is a no brainer buy low. He looked healthy playing against the Chiefs, and it’s a complete fluke that he’s only scored 1 TD on the season. The Packers offense will balance out and Lacy will start having monster games down the stretch.

I advocate staying away from Lynch and Murray for injury reasons. Unlike Lacy, who was dealing with a simple ankle sprain, Murray is dealing with a hamstring (which we know can linger for an entire season) while Lynch has already had a variety of ailments. Add in the shoddy offensive line play for these two backs, and there is too much uncertainty to justify ponying up for them on the trade market, even if they come at a reduced price.

Hill, Forsett, and Miller round out my buy low RB targets. Hill has maintained a healthy workload even with the re-emergence of Giovani Bernard, while Miller and Forsett have been inexplicably forgotten by their respective offenses. All three of these backs do not carry the pedigree of the elite players (Bell, AP, etc.), and therefore could be very cheap buys from a frustrated owner.

In summary : if you want to trade for a stud RB at a discount, target Lacy, Hill, Forsett, or Miller.

Wide Receivers

Not quite as ridiculous, but still…

Name Preseason Draft Position Current Rank Trade Target? Antonio Brown WR1 WR3 No Julio Jones WR2 WR1 No Dez Bryant WR3 WR100* No Odell Beckham Jr. WR4 WR13 No Demaryius Thomas WR5 WR15 No Calvin Johnson WR6 WR22 No A.J. Green WR7 WR8 No Randall Cobb WR8 WR7 No T.Y. Hilton WR9 WR28 Yes Alshon Jeffery WR10 WR85* No Brandin Cooks WR11 WR33 Yes Mike Evans WR12 WR70* Yes

*missed time due to injury/suspension

Brown, Jones, Beckham, Thomas, Calvin, Green, and Cobb have all performed well enough that their owners likely won’t be looking to drop them for a discount.

If I’m wrong about this, I’m wrong, but I don’t think Dez Bryant is worth anything more than a replacement level player at this point. There is just too much uncertainty regarding his injury recovery to warrant giving up an upside player for him, especially with Romo also injured.

While Jeffery’s injury is less serious than Bryant’s by default, it’s still a hamstring, and we have already seen it linger for a couple of weeks. Jay Cutler will also be out for at least another week, and we all saw that Jimmy Clausen refuses to throw the ball more than 3 yards down the field. I could see Jeffery coming back and dominating in garbage time for the second half of the season, but I could also see him being shut down if he keeps tweaking the injury while the Bears go into full rebuild mode. That’s too much uncertainty to pull the trigger, unless you get a true steal.

Now some good news: Evans showed he was healthy last week and should see a ton of targets with the Bucs projected to be trailing in nearly every game they play. Hilton was heavily targeted by Luck against Tennessee and also appears over his injury. The Saints have struggled to get the ball to Brandin Cooks so far this season, but it’s not like he’s been terrible or anything. Similar to Forsett/Miller/Hill, Cooks doesn’t carry the name pedigree of other elite players and might come at even more of a discount.

In summary : if you want to trade for a stud WR at a discount, target Hilton, Evans, or Cooks.

Conclusion

Tight ends were considered extremely shallow and unpredictable going into the season; so naturally, it makes sense that their performances have largely followed draft positions. Isn’t variance fun? Shoot me a message on Twitter if you want some TE trade targets.

Here is a summary by position of the trade targets discussed above:

QB RB WR Luck Lacy Hilton Wilson Hill Evans Forsett Cooks Miller

Now that you have your player targets, get out there and get trading. And remember the first rule from my trading survival guide: mind your surroundings. Target the 0-3 teams in your leagues for trades, even if they don’t have the exact players you want. They will assuredly be the most desperate to make a trade.

If you are the unfortunate owner of an 0-3 team, hang onto your stud players, keep scanning the waiver wire, and wait for variance to work back in your favor. Good luck.

And don’t forget to tweet trades to me (@JJRaleigh87) for advice and possible future use in Fantasy Trade Advice articles! Include the players and a summary of your league settings (PPR, keeper, etc.) and I’ll get back to you as soon as I can with my thoughts. I’ll also be using your trades as examples in future articles.