Chris Berman has taken his Swami Sez NFL picks segment, seen on SportsCenter, to ESPN Chalk. Each week during the NFL regular season, he'll give his favorite picks against the spread here with a little further analysis.

Season record: 40-19 ATS (last week: 2-1)

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

Kansas City is going to have to work hard in this one, coming off an intense five-quarter game in Denver. Atlanta likes to turn every game into a track meet, but I think the Chiefs can keep the pace they like and hold Atlanta in the 20s, instead of the 30s. With Justin Houston back (and Dee Ford potentially returning), Kansas City should get pressure on Matt Ryan. It's fun watching Taylor Gabriel and Tyreek Hill fly around the field. Wouldn't it be great to see a 100-yard dash between those two?

Score: Kansas City 24, Atlanta 23

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens

All due respect to Miami's six-game winning streak, but Baltimore's defense is playing well and should have Jimmy Smith back at corner. I think Jay Ajayi will have real trouble running the ball against this tough Ravens defensive front. That will put the pressure on Ryan Tannehill, and I'm not sure if he can carry the Dolphins against this D. Baltimore needs to finish drives with TDs instead of relying on Justin Tucker's field goals, but Joe Flacco and the offense do enough here to beat Miami.

Score: Baltimore 23, Miami 17

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

Last team with the ball wins in this one. Matthew Stafford has made a season of it, but Drew Brees and Sean Payton are masters of managing the clock and getting it back late. Stafford and Derek Carr have been terrific to watch this year, as Detroit has trailed in the fourth quarter of every game this season. If New Orleans had won a couple of close ones earlier this season, it would have a real playoff chance. I'm taking the sizable head start with the points here.

Score: Detroit 35, New Orleans 34

Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals

I like how the Redskins played Dallas on Thanksgiving, even in defeat. They moved the ball and clearly weren't intimidated. Washington has a lot of firepower, even minus Jordan Reed in this one, and is in every game. The sum of the Redskins' defense is definitely greater than its parts. Reed's injury will be a factor, but you're giving me a little head start with a team with a winning record against a team with a losing one, I'm going to take it. Washington wins in the desert.

Score: Washington 28, Arizona 27

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

Seattle was affected by travel and seemed to lack energy last week, but the Seahawks were beaten fair and square by Tampa Bay. However, I think Seattle's D comes to play from the start here and puts the clamps down on a Carolina team that just isn't winning the close games it did last year. The Seahawks will protect Russell Wilson better than they did last week and Luke Kuechly's injury tips the scales toward Seattle.

Score: Seattle 27, Carolina 17