Maxime Vachier-Lagrave, the world No 6, has long dreamed of qualifying as a world title candidate and going on to challenge Magnus Carlsen but the Frenchman, 29, has been left with only slender chances after his semi-final defeat by Russia’s Ian Nepomniachtchi at the Jerusalem Grand Prix this week.

The grandmaster from Lyon has had a succession of near-misses in top events. In the last three contests for the 128-player World Cup, which qualifies its two finalists for the eight-player candidates, he lost each time in the semi-finals, while this month he was beaten by China’s Ding Liren in the Grand Tour final at London Olympia.

Earlier this year Vachier-Lagrave said: “It’s very important for me to qualify for the next Candidates. If I don’t, I’ll be 32 by the time the 2022 Candidates come around. That’s already a bit late to be making your Candidates debut, given that to achieve my dream I’d have to win it, and then win a world championship match. And experience is a crucial part of that, because these events are long, and the preparation is so unique.”

His critics point to two weaknesses: a psychological failure in pressure situations and too narrow an opening repertoire for top events. His opponents know in advance that Vachier-Lagrave will almost always defend against 1 e4 with the Najdorf Sicilian 1…c5 2 Nf3 d6 3 d4 cxd4 4 Nxd4 Nf6 5 Nc3 a6 and against 1 d4 with the Grunfeld 1…Nf6 2 c4 g6 3 Nc3 d5.

For game one of their Jerusalem semi-final, Nepomniachtchi was ready with a Grünfeld opening bomb. Play went 4 Nf3 Bg7 5 Qb3 dxc4 6 Qxc4 0-0 7 e4 Nc6, the last being a move with which the Frenchman had never lost and whose principal idea is the pawn sac 8 Be2 e5 9 d5 Nd4!

Nepomniachtchi instead uncorked his preparation 8 Be3!? to prevent Black’s main plan, and later described it as “obviously not the best move, but it could be interesting when the opponent faces it for the first time”. Vachier-Lagrave became fixated on trying to assess 8…Ng4 9 Bg5, so missing White’s real intention of 9 e5!? conceding the bishop pair for a strong pawn centre which later supported a decisive attack.

All now depends on the three-day Jerusalem final starting at 1pm on Saturday where Nepomniachtchi meets China’s former prodigy Wei Yi, 20, who was the youngest ever 2700-rated player at 15 years and eight months but whose results have plateaued in recent years.

At Jerusalem Wei Yi has shown signs of a new surge from a talent who used to be talked about as a future rival to Magnus Carlsen. He has knocked out the world No 9, Anish Giri, the 2016 world title challenger, Sergey Karjakin, and the Czech No 1, David Navara. The decisive game from his semi-final was a one-sided massacre.

Wei Yi has no chance to reach the candidates this year – it could be different in 2021 – but can act as a spoiler and will be up for the fight, aiming to prove himself ready for invitations to top tournaments.

If Nepomniatchi loses the final, he can still qualify for the candidates via a play-off against Kirill Alekseenko. The little-known 22-year-old ranks only No 37 in the world but qualifies as a potential wildcard through having finished as the highest eligible player at Isle of Man behind the winner, Wang Hao. If Nepomniachtchi wins the final, Alekseenko becomes the wildcard.

Ekaterinburg will organise the candidates and the Russian chess federation president, Andrey Filatov, has already announced that the wildcard will be a Russian. However, it is obvious that if such a policy gives a place among the eight world title candidates to a player whose overall form is far below the other seven, there will be protests.

If the policy changed and the wildcard choice became open to non-Russians, not only Vachier-Lagrave but also two highly rated previous candidates from Europe, Levon Aronian of Armenia and Shak Mamedyarov of Azerbaijan, would be eligible.

Away from the candidates, there was an interesting pairing at the Sitges Open in Spain where the legendary Vassily Ivanchuk, now 50, crushed India’s rising star Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa, 14.

3650 1...Bxb2+! 2 Qxb2 (if 2 Kxb2 Qxd1 wins on material) Qxd1+! 3 Kxd1 Rad8+ 4 Kc1 Re1 mate. 4 Qd4 Rxd4+ 5 Kc1 stops mate, but 5...Re1+ and Rdd1 then wins the house.