Monmouth Poll: Bob Menendez should thank Donald Trump for the lead he has in NJ Senate race

Herb Jackson | NorthJersey

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Nearly 9 out of 10 likely New Jersey voters know that Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez was tried for bribery last year, and by a 39 percent to 26 percent margin they think Republican challenger Bob Hugin is more trusted to bring integrity to government, a Monmouth University poll released Thursday said.

But depending on how turnout is projected, Menendez led Hugin by 9 to 12 points because voters said President Donald Trump is a bigger factor in their decision.

Voters don't particularly like Menendez. Some 45 percent have an unfavorable impression of him, compared with 28 percent who have a favorable impression.

But on the corruption charges – he was admonished by the Senate's ethics committee after an 11-week trial last fall ended in a hung jury, acquitted by the judge on some charges and then the Justice Department dropped the remaining charges – some 64 percent said Menendez did "about the same as what most other politicians do."

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Hugin has built his campaign around a promise to restore honor to the Senate, and pitches himself as a moderate alternative. One super PAC supporting Hugin has also funded numerous ads highlighting the senator's legal problems.

The poll found that while men are almost evenly split on the race, women favor Menendez 53 percent to 36 percent. Hugin may have been trying to change that with his newest ad, which brings up unproven allegations from an anonymous tipster that Menendez consorted with underage prostitutes.

Menendez has said Hugin's claims to be a moderate cannot be trusted, and launched his own new ad Wednesday that says Hugin is "lying about Bob Menendez ... and Hugin knows it." Menendez and super PACs supporting him have also funded ads attacking Hugin's past connections to Trump, and his record as CEO of drug maker Celgene Corp., especially its repeated increases in the price of cancer drugs.

"You've got to wonder if New Jersey voters look at corruption through a different lens than other voters," pollster Patrick Murray said. But he also noted that in upstate New York and Southern California, there are two Republicans running for re-election while they are under indictment and they remain competitive in their races. Trump took to Twitter to criticize Attorney General Jeff Sessions for those indictments.

A majority, 56 percent, said their views of Trump were more important than their views of Menendez in the Senate race. A majority also disapproved of the job Trump is doing as president, with 49 percent strongly disapproving, 6 percent somewhat disapproving while 13 percent somewhat approved and 29 percent strongly approved.

"If these poll results hold, the first person Bob Menendez should thank in his election night victory speech is Donald Trump," Murray said.

The head-to-head matchup was in line with other recent polls, which found Menendez with leads of 2 to 10 points.

Monmouth found Menendez led Hugin, 49 percent to 40 percent, using a model that estimates turnout would be about the same as past midterm elections. Menendez's lead was 50 percent to 39 percent if there were a turnout surge in Democratic areas, and 51 percent to 39 percent if there is lower overall turnout.

Menendez is actually underperforming, however, since Democrats won the last three statewide elections for governor in 2017, president in 2016 and senator in 2014 by 14 percentage points, Monmouth noted in its news release. Democrats also lead Republicans in voter registration by more than 900,000, though there are more unaffiliated voters than those in either party.

"Given the national political climate and the big registration advantage enjoyed by Democrats, you might expect an incumbent senator from New Jersey to be up by 20 points," Murray said.

Menendez's chances of winning were downgraded from "solid" to "likely" on Thursday by Nathan Gonzales, editor of the handicapping website Inside Elections.

"'I still think Sen. Bob Menendez is going to win, but his favorability numbers are terrible ... and he's facing a wealthy candidate," Gonzales said in a video on the Roll Call website.

Hugin has put $24 million of his own money into the campaign through Sept. 30. After his latest $8.5 million self-contribution was disclosed earlier this week, a Democratic super PAC connected to Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., announced it would spend $3 million on ads tying Hugin to Trump. Republicans seized on that as a sign Menendez might be in trouble.

Hugin had a 31 percent to 21 percent favorable/unfavorable rating, with 48 percent having no opinion of him. Some 69 percent of voters were aware he ran a pharmaceutical company, and 48 percent said they had a negative opinion of the industry, compared with 14 percent with a positive view and 31 percent a neutral one.

Asked how people plan to vote in House races, 56 percent said they would back the Democrat and 36 percent the Republican. That compares with an 8-point edge Democrats had in 2016 and a 2-point edge in 2014, Monmouth noted.

The poll said that the swing toward Democrats was coming mainly from districts now held by Republicans. In the five districts now held by the GOP, the poll found voter preference virtually tied, 48 percent Democrat and 45 percent Republican, while the GOP had a 22-point edge in the last two congressional elections.

The poll surveyed 527 likely voters from last Thursday through Monday. The margin of error for questions is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points, while the margin of error for the difference between the two candidates' totals, or Menendez's lead, is plus or minus 6 percentage points.