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PROVO — Three years and counting, that’s the time frame for the BYU football program to leave behind being an independent and join a Power 5 conference.

Since speaking to a reporter from Austin, Texas, last summer, coach Bronco Mendenhall has been adamant about basically saying BYU has no solid future as an independent. For a multitude of reasons, he is absolutely correct.

Especially in football, BYU has to do whatever is necessary to join a Power 5 conference.

Acknowledging that BYU can’t compete much longer from a financial perspective as an independent, Mendenhall ideally wants to make the transition by 2018. The sound decision to bolt the Mountain West five years ago has given way to the harsh reality that BYU will fall behind other Power 5 programs unless the widening financial disparity is closed.

Speaking to Greg Wrubell, the BYU radio broadcaster, Mendenhall said: “I hate to be pinned down, but if someone were to force me, I’d say three years. It has to happen within three. Could it go longer than that? Yes, it could. Is it desirable, to me, to go longer than that? The answer is no.”

The Power 5 conferences generate approximately $25 million on average in television revenue annually for their member football programs, an amount that is far superior to BYU’s deal with ESPN and also figures to increase as contracts are due for renewal. In short, unless its status changes, BYU will be at a great disadvantage compared to the Power 5 programs.

Speaking with reporters in February, athletic director Tom Holmoe said BYU intends to be playing in a Power 5 conference “sometime in the near future.”

I hate to be pinned down, but if someone were to force me, I'd say three years. It has to happen within three. Could it go longer than that? Yes, it could. Is it desirable, to me, to go longer than that? The answer is no. –Bronco Mendenhall

“I don’t think we can (stay independent) indefinitely,” Holmoe said.

As we’ve seen in recent years, BYU already is at a competitive disadvantage with regard to keeping fan interest. As soon as the Cougars lose games, which usually happens in September under Mendenhall, interest in the season wanes due to scheduling and a predetermined bowl destination.

It’s easy to argue that slippage has begun in BYU’s program. Aside for two big wins over a rebuilding Texas program and another against Boise State, BYU has endured three consecutive seasons of going 8-5, records that have the faithful wanting more. While such records are not awful, they aren’t good enough for the LaVell Edwards Stadium patrons.

Even the 10-3 season in 2011, which was the program’s first as an independent, certainly didn’t seem as fulfilling as the BYU teams that finished the same in the WAC or Mountain West. At the least, those seasons had some intrigue with the postseason destination.

None of this is meant to insinuate the sky is falling for the Cougars. Even without Power 5 inclusion, BYU could roll along for the foreseeable future with winning records and bowl appearances. But Mendenhall and Holmoe have repeatedly stated the desire to compete at the highest levels. To get there, Power 5 affiliation is necessary.

Mendenhall has spoken of BYU playing its way into a Power 5 conference. While the program’s schedules in upcoming seasons are Power 5 worthy, BYU should not be in the position of having to win enough games to warrant inclusion.

Conference expansions in recent years have not been based on a program’s accomplishment, not even in the case of Utah. If a program’s merit were to be the primary consideration, then Boise State wouldn’t currently be in the Mountain West.

For BYU, the idea of playing its way in also is based on a false assumption. Every August, the Cougars speak of enjoying a special season only to see it become wasted breath before October. And now with the schedules getting more difficult, BYU faces long odds to sustain a national buzz for the entire season.

But BYU still deserves the opportunity to play with the big boys. For the Cougars, hopefully the inclusion comes within the coach’s time frame.

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