Welcome to the first of a series here on the blog: ASOIAF Theory Time. For those of you unaware of what that is, it’s A Song of Ice and Fire; George R.R. Martin’s epic fantasy saga of which the hit HBO series Game of Thrones is based on. In this series I’ll be discussing and laying out my own theories for upcoming plot events, characters etc, but also taking the time to analyse other popular theories around the net. Just so you’re aware, these articles are going to contain heavy spoilers for all books. We’re going to get started with one of my own.



I study History for GCSE’s and recently had to write up an essay on the political and royal situation in England in the 1650’s. A long story short is that there was a civil war between the king and parliament, parliament won and replaced the royalty with a ‘Head of State,’ Oliver Cromwell. After a short while Cromwell appointed himself ‘Lord Protector,’ and when he died he wished for his son to take over the position after him, just as a prince would inherit his father’s throne. He was the king in all but name, and it’s logical to infer that part of his plan was to just say, “fuck it, I’m the king” in a few years.

His plan came undone because there were still some relatives of the old, dead King Charles left alive; a nephew, Prince Rupert, and his son, also called Charles, and both were planning to invade England and take back the crown. When Cromwell died, his son didn’t wish for the position of Lord Protector and wanted to be a farmer. After a while parliament just decided to reinstate the royal line on the conditions that parliament has more of a say this time around, and Charles II was crowned king.

When writing the essay I was thinking about how it could relate to ASOIAF; we know the title of Lord Protector does exist – Petyr Baelish is Lord Protector of the Vale, Ned Stark was intended to be Lord Protector of Westeros, Kevan Lannister was for a short while, and it’s likely that Mace Tyrell will be named as the next in office, along with holding the position of Hand of the King. However all those examples have been because the real heir/king/whatever is too young to rule on their own. Robert Arryn is too young and sickly to rule the Vale, Joffrey was too young to rule on his own and now Tommen is even younger. We’ve never seen an example where someone is named Lord Protector and are ruling 100% on their own because there is no royal family or living heir to nag them.

Enter Littlefinger.

It’s well-known that Baelish is playing the long game in this series, and he’s done a damn good job at it, creepy bastard that he is. He’s one of the key reasons why Westeros is in the state that it is, and he’s taken himself from low-born ward at Riverrun to ex-Master of Coin, Lord of Harrenhal, Lord Paramount of the Riverlands and Lord Protector of the Vale. He is in control of two of the Seven Kingdoms. He also has Sansa Stark, an immensely valuable hostage because if he plays his cards with her right then he can also add the North to that growing list. The current plan is to marry her to Harold Hardyng, a lost Arryn heir, and if that goes through and he officially reveals that she is Sansa and not his bastard daughter, the Eyrie, Riverlands and North will all be bound to him via her.

I think that’s pretty neat.

It’s well-documented in the books that what Littlefinger really wants is the Iron Throne. We don’t really know whether he actually wants to be king and start a new royal line, or just end up being a Hand/Lord Protector, but my money is on king. He’s vain, arrogant and intelligent – he wouldn’t put in all this effort to just end up being a Hand, someone who’ll be forgotten within a few decades. A journey from low-born ward to king of Westeros would truly be something for the singers to write about and would cement his place in history. The problem is, we don’t know how and if he’s going to get there.

For the record, I don’t think he will. Tommen currently sits the Iron Throne and King’s Landing is infested with Tyrells and (soon to be) Martells. He would need an extremely large army and fleet to take the city and crush those two major houses, which he doesn’t have. He needs to use his cunning. There’s also Stannis Baratheon wanting the throne, and even though he’s currently in the North about to lay waste to the Boltons he’s still a viable threat. Then there’s “Aegon” Targaryen in the Stormlands, who’s just taken Storm’s End (the impenetrable Baratheon castle) and has 10,000 Golden Company mercenaries at his back and soon enough, Dorne. Of course, we can’t forget about Daenerys Targaryen; 8000 Unsullied, 90-something Ironborn ships, an entire Dothraki khalasar, the Second Sons (soon!), three dragons. Out of all of those she definitely has the strongest army, although first she has to win the Battle of Meereen and actually leave that freaking continent. I think by the end of The Winds of Winter Aegon will have taken the Iron Throne, however whether he’s actually a Targaryen is open to debate. If Littlefinger really wants Westeros that badly then he has to act quickly and dispose of all those claimants, but I believe he’s already started working at it.

The High Septon is currently causing all sorts of trouble down in King’s Landing. He’s imprisoned Cersei, who’s awaiting trial, effectively ending the Lannister holds on the throne. He also tricked her into reinstating the Faith Militant, an army of the Seven commanded by the High Septon. In my opinion, there has to be more to this character than meets the eye; the Faith had never been really highlighted as a major player before A Feast for Crows, and then all of a sudden he arrested the Queen Regent and no one really batted an eyelid. Why is he doing all of this? “For the Seven”? No, I don’t think so. He (literally) came out of nowhere and was elected High Septon/Sparrow, then started getting involved with politics. I think he’s working with someone, and you can guess who.

Littlefinger.

It’s not a new theory that there’s more to the High Septon than we know, however the only major theories are that he’s a pawn of Varys, who will depose of the Lannisters (tick) and then welcome Aegon into the city, or that he’s in fact Howland Reed, a close friend of Ned Stark and has been mysteriously devoid of any appearances in the saga so far, despite several mentions. The problem with that theory is that House Reed keep the Old Gods of the North, and the High Septon follows the Seven. Strangely, there aren’t any theories which suggest he is the pawn of Littlefinger, who I believe is the most likely. We know from the epilogue of A Dance with Dragons that Varys doesn’t necessarily need pawns in this game because he can use his own cunning to kill his enemies – he’s the one who kills Kevan Lannister and Grand Maester Pycelle in that epilogue. If he wanted he could poison Cersei and make it look like natural causes.

We know that Baelish is friends with the Tyrells, because they were both responsible for Joffrey’s assassination. That’s all we really know about this alliance, but if you’re a follower of the Grand Tyrell Conspiracy then it makes sense that Petyr would want to be on their good side if they end up coming into power. The Tyrells and the High Septon share a natural enemy; the Lannisters. Now, you might be thinking that this is a big contradictory mess. Why make friends with the Tyrells if you’re then going to work directly against them with another friend? Well, that’s what Littlefinger does best. He worked against the Lannisters for some time despite the fact that they gave him Harrenhal, arranged his marriage with Lysa Arryn etc. Yet he asked Lysa to write to Catelyn Stark, claiming that the Lannisters were the people who poisoned Jon Arryn (wrong: it was Lysa herself on Petyr’s orders!). There’s also the small fact that he was the guy behind Joffrey’s death, so that tells us he isn’t necessarily honourable in his allegiances.

By being behind both the Tyrells and the High Septon, it’s essentially two different paths to the same goal. Should one fail he has a back-up plan. A partnership with the HS is also beneficial because Baelish needs Sansa’s marriage to Tyrion absolved so he can officially marry her to Harold Hardyng. There’s also the possibility that both sides are aware of each other and Littlefinger’s involvement in both and were both working together to bring down Cersei, however that doesn’t necessarily support the Grand Tyrell Conspiracy. Here’s a quote from Petyr in AFFC:

“You would not believe half of what is happening in King’s Landing, sweetling. Cersei stumbles from one idiocy to the next, helped along by her council of the deaf, the dim, and the blind. I always anticipated that she would beggar the realm and destroy herself, but I never expected she would do it quite so fast. It is quite vexing. I had hoped to have four or five quiet years to plant some seeds and allow some fruits to ripen, but now… it is a good thing that I thrive on chaos. What little peace and order the five kings left us will not long survive the three queens, I fear.”

On first read that would suggest that Littlefinger has had no part in Cersei’s downfall, however he outright states that was planning to bring down Cersei. He also states that he thrives on chaos, which is exactly what is rampant throughout Westeros right now. We know from Cersei’s “Valonquar” prophecy that she will only be killed once her three children are dead; Joffrey’s already gone, leaving Tommen and Myrcella. It’s my theory that Nymeria or Tyene Sand will poison Tommen once they reach King’s Landing, and I think Darkstar’s blade was laced with poison, meaning that Myrcella is already dying. That leaves Stannis and Shireen as the only heirs to the Iron Throne, and they’re on the other side of the continent with mountains of snow and blizzards between them. By that point the High Septon can easily manipulate the Tyrells into losing their hold on the throne, which is when Littlefinger comes into the picture.

Now lets bring it back to Oliver Cromwell. He was only named Lord Protector (by himself) because there was no king or queen or prince or princess to refer power to, and that’s exactly the situation Westeros will soon be facing. This would be great for the Tyrells, because it means that they would become the royal family, however the High Septon plays a vital role in naming the king. The king or queen is not official until the High Septon says so, and so far Tommen isn’t ‘official’.

I think Littlefinger’s plan is for the High Septon to name him as Lord Protector of Westeros. By that time Sansa and Harold will be married, and he happens to be 18 so his role in the Eyrie is done. He could leave for King’s Landing and take up the position, then after a while probably start calling himself King Petyr Baelish, the First of His Name. The official excuse could be something about how Petyr will rule the country until winter has ended and Stannis able to take up the throne, or Shireen, however that obviously won’t be happening. There’s also the small fact that Stannis is a R’hllor follower and doesn’t believe in the Seven, which the Faith definitely wouldn’t want. The only problem if things go smoothly would be the Tyrells; however, if Margaery lost her trial and was executed or happened to have an “accident” then they would have absolutely no royal claim and wouldn’t be able to oppose Petyr without being branded as traitors. In the short term, there’s the Aegon and Daenerys situations, however it’s likely that they don’t consider Daenerys a threat because she’s on a completely different continent and, as far as they know, doesn’t have any ships. Aegon’s only army is a bunch of sellswords who could be bought out, and Dorne alone cannot rebel against the rest of the Seven Kingdoms.

So, there you have it. I don’t think Littlefinger’s plan will actually end up succeeding (he will meet his fate early, at the hands of Sansa most likely) but I believe that’s what he’s aiming for. The struggle for the Iron Throne really has turned quite messy.

If you enjoyed the theory then please do like the post, reblog it, give the blog a follow or whatever. Also, if you have any ideas for future instalments of ‘ASOIAF Theory Time’ then say so in the comments below.

Valar Morghulis.