by Jim Rose in politics - New Zealand, Public Choice Tags: 2014 New Zealand election, ACT, Grant Robertson, James Shaw, Labour Party, MMP, National Party, New Zealand Greens, split voting, ticket splitting

Split voting analysis suggests there are not a lot of blue green National voters. Few Green Party voters split their party vote and give their electorate vote to National with the exception of tactical voting in Epsom. The Greens and Labour fight for the left-wing vote and that’s about it.

Source: The Electoral Commission.

In the electorate of Epsom, many Green voters voted for the National candidate as a tactical ploy to defeat the ACT party candidate.

Source: The Electoral Commission.

In Wellington Central, the National Party won the party vote with 14,689 party votes. The Greens came second with 11,545. The deputy leader of the Labour Party, Grant Robertson, came a miserable third in the party vote with 9,306 party votes.

Source: The Electoral Commission.

Grant Robinson nonetheless won the seat easily on Green electorate seat votes and more than a few National Party electorate votes .

Indeed, so many of Grant Robinson’s votes came from Greens and National voters that the Greens have a good chance of winning Wellington Central if they tried. More so now that the Green Party leader stands in the seat.

The Greens need to win Wellington Central in the election after they go into a coalition with Labour in government in New Zealand because of the 40% drop in green votes every time they go into government everywhere else.

The Greens have a party vote of 10.7% at the moment. Some of that are Labour voters parking their vote with them while they’re grumpy. A significant part of the rest will be lost when they go into government. Enough of that party vote is risk to push the Greens below the 5% threshold necessary to win any list seats in Parliament.