If you want to read a short winded explanation of why I am choosing one team over the other, you’ve come to the wrong place. While I will include a prediction for each game, this article will focus more on which teams have an edge in each game, and how they will be able to use those edges to help them win. Think of it as an exercise in seeing what the most likely outcome for each game is, and the path each team can take to win. I want to provide good information, and allow people to draw their own conclusions from it. There is no right answer for these games, but if somehow I get all of them right, or the exact score of one of them, please go ahead and call me a genius. Let's get to it.





Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans. O/U 48.5 , HOU -2.5.

As of writing, Houston sits as 2.5 point home favorites against their red hot division opponent Indianapolis Colts. The Vegas implied score is HOU 25.5 - 23 IND. The fact that they are division opponents is crucial in looking into the outcome of this game, as they have already faced each other twice this season; first in week 4 with the Texans defeating the Colts in Indy 37-34 in OT, and then again in week 14 with the Colts defeating the Texans 24-21 in Houston. So, what we have is two division opponents, who each beat the opposite on the road by a field goal. This shapes up to be the most exciting game of wild card weekend, as evidenced by the highest O/U of any game to be played. Both of these teams are ranked in the top 10 in rushing yards against (Texans #3 and Colts #8), so it is likely that this game becomes very pass happy where the Texans rank #28, and the Colts rank #16 in passing yards allowed. It would be easy to say that whoever can establish their run game will be able to win this one, but considering that neither team has been able to do that in their first two meetings, it seems unlikely for it to happen this time. This game is going to come down to which team can impose their will through the air the best, or which team can come up with the opportune defensive stop. If this game was played ten times, it could very likely end up with each team winning five games, and never by more than a touchdown. These teams are very evenly matched, and after slow starts to the season, they have both been on fire down the stretch. The only clear edge in this game, if we are judging each position group against each other, would be that the Colts offensive line is a much better unit than the Texans. Coaching in these tight games is crucial, so whoever you believe is the better coach between Frank Reich and Bill O’Brien will give their team an edge as well. That being said, I think the Colts will be able to find a small edge, but it may not be quite enough to win this game. It would be very difficult to predict a winner, so if you plan on making a bet on this game, please bet the over.





Prediction: Colts 34-31 Texans.





Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys. O/U 43 , DAL -2.

The Saturday night game features two incredibly similar teams. With Dallas as two point home favorites, the implied score of this game is DAL 22.5 - 20.5 SEA. These teams met week three in a game Seattle won 24-13 at home. It wouldn’t do much good to look at the specifics of that game, as both teams are vastly different now than they were all that time ago. In that game, the Seahawks didn’t have Doug Baldwin active, and the Cowboys hadn’t traded for Amari Cooper yet. This game will be much different, especially because the home field advantage has shifted to the Cowboys. This is very important for the Cowboys as their defense had twice as many sacks at home as on the road during the regular season, as well as allowing only 18.5 points per game on average at home versus 22 points per game on average on the road. Both teams have very similar offensive philosophies: run first, feed your top receivers second. The Seahawks lead the league in rushing yards, at 160 yards per game, while the Cowboys are #10 with 122.7 rushing yards per game. Who can establish themselves on the ground is key, as the Cowboys defense only allowed 3.8 yards per carry, and that number drops to 3.4 yards per carry at home. The Seahawks defense, however, allowed a measly 4.9 yards per carry, although it did drop to a still terrible 4.6 yards per carry on the road. That is a massive edge for the Cowboys. Both teams allow a similar yards per pass attempt, with the Cowboys allowed 6.9 yppa, and the Seahawks allowing 7.0 yppa. There isn’t much of an edge to be found there, but you can project one teams passing game to be stronger than the other based on your own perceived idea of which quarterback and pass catching group is stronger. For me, I would have to give the edge to the Seahawks. Russell Wilson is a future hall of fame quarterback, and the combo of Doug Baldwin and perfect passer rating while targeted Tyler Lockett is very strong. For the Cowboys, Dak Prescott has shown that he is a capable quarterback, and two years ago he was able to put up solid numbers versus Aaron Rodgers in their matchup. Amari Cooper was a fantastic mid-season trade that arguably saved their season, and added another dimension to their once stagnant offense. The Seahawks defense runs a very similar scheme to the one used by the Atlanta Falcons, who the Cowboys beat 22-19 in week 11. In that game, Amari Cooper only caught three passes for 36 yards, while Zeke Elliott caught 7 passes for 79 yards to go on top of the 122 rushing yards he had. Look for Zeke to eat against this Seahawks team. The other edge that I believe the Seahawks have is their coaching. Pete Carroll is by all accounts a much better and smarter coach than Jason Garrett. In a close matchup, having the better coach can make all the difference in the world. One thing to look out for before this game kicks off is the injury status of both teams, especially the Seahawks as they have several key players on the injury report as of writing. Seahawks safety Bradley McDougald is a huge name to look out for. If he is out for this game, the Cowboys passing game should be much stronger. To recap: the Cowboys should have the edge rushing the ball, while the Seahawks should have a slight edge passing, and through their coaching, but may have less of an edge based on their injury report.





Prediction: Seahawks 21-18 Cowboys.





Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens. O/U 41.5 , BAL -3.

The first game on Sunday is a rematch of a game played just two weeks ago in Los Angeles, where the Ravens won 22-10. The Ravens open this game as three point home favorites, with an implied score of BAL 22.25 - 19.25 LAC. Since Lamar Jackson has become the starting quarterback, the Ravens have become a very run heavy team. In their last meeting with the Chargers, Lamar Jackson threw only 22 times while himself and the running backs ran the ball 35 times. That means 61% of their plays were run plays, where they averaged 4.5 yards per rush on the entire season, but 5.3 yards per carry over the last three games. The Ravens ride the strength of their defense that allowed only 5.8 yards per pass attempt and 3.7 yards per carry during the regular season. Their game plan is simple: pound the ball on the ground, control the clock, and let their defense make plays. In their last meeting, Philip Rivers threw 23/37 for 181 yards and two interceptions. If the Chargers want to have any shot to win this game, they cannot be turning the ball over. They will have so few chances to score that messing any of them up can be the end of their season. The Ravens averaged 32:27 time of possession, and 35:41 on average over their last three games. This limits their opponents opportunities to score, and when you couple that with a stout defense that can force turnovers, it makes it incredibly difficult to put points up on the board. If the Chargers are able to get ahead early and stay on the gas, they will be in a great position to win this game. Lamar Jackson has not attempted more than 25 passes in a single game, and his best yardage total in any game was 202 (which happens to be in this teams last matchup, largely thanks to Mark Andrews breakaway touchdown). Jackson isn’t prepared to carry a team with his arm. That’s the best option for the Chargers to win this game. Get ahead early and don’t look back. If this game stays close, or the Ravens pull ahead early, it’ll be incredibly challenging for the Chargers to end up with the win. If this game was played 10 times, the Ravens would likely win 6-8.





Prediction: Ravens 17-10 Chargers.





Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears. O/U 41.5 , CHI -6.

This is the first meeting of the season between this two teams. The Bears open as 6 point home favorites, the largest spread on the slate, with an implied game score of CHI 23.75 - 17.75 PHI. The Eagles have been flying high their past three games with Nick Foles under center, highlighted by Foles 471 yard 4 touchdown performance against the Texans. But, they now have to travel to Chicago to take on the most efficient defense in the NFL. The Bears are #4 in the league in opponent rush yards per attempt at 3.8 yards, and #1 in the league in opponent pass yards per attempt at 5.7 yards. You would be hard pressed to find a more dominant group in the league, as the Bears also led the league in takeaways with 27, and are 3rd in the league with 50 sacks. One major injury to look out for is All-Pro safety Eddie Jackson. He missed week 17 with an ankle injury, and coach Nagy claims that he is a game time decision. If he is out, you can project the Eagles offense to be slightly more efficient. Looking at the opposite matchup, while the Eagles defense ranks 7th in opponent rush yards per game at 96.9, they rank in the bottom 10 in yards per carry allowed at 4.7. This is an indicator that teams can establish the run against them, but they are either choosing not to, or are playing from behind and need to throw the ball more. Teams likely choose not to run against the Eagles because their pass defense might not be better. They allow 6.9 yards per pass attempt, right around the middle of the league. This number jumps up to 7.4 yards per pass attempt on the road. The Eagles do have a solid pass rush, and they are able to get to the quarterback. They tied for 8th best in the league with 44 sacks. This will likely be the deciding battle in this game. Can the Eagles get to Trubisky and rattle him, or will he be able to pick apart their porous secondary? I’m not saying that Trubisky has to throw for 300+ yards and 3 touchdowns to win, but he will have to limit his turnovers, and will have to throw for 200+ yards and set the team up to score several times. The Eagles have been red hot since Foles came back, but the Bears have arguably been even hotter. They went 9-1 in their last ten games, and that one loss came against the Giants when Trubisky was injured. They find ways to win. This game will come down to how Trubisky performs. We’ve seen the Bears win games when Trubisky is playing awfully (the Rams game), but against this hot Eagles team, the Bears will need to find more offense. If this game was played 10 times, the Bears win 7-8 times.





Prediction: Bears 31-17 Eagles