[Story via Smashwords Blog]

2014 will be an exciting year for self-publishers; Rising eBook sales for Indie Authors

Especially those choosing to publish and market with Amazon’s Kindle (and Kindle Publishing Direct) platform. Based on 2014 metrics, compiled by Smashwords’ blog author Mark Coker, eBook sales earned by indie authors and traditional authors are trading places: the marketshare for traditional author earnings is still going down, while indie author earnings and eBook sales have increased to 12% (since .03% in 2008).

Not only is this good news for already published eBook authors, it’s a great opportunity for potential and would-be authors–as the interest and viability of eBooks on Amazon’s Kindle is dependent on the sales outlook and initial interest. Traditional publishing is still too costly for first time authors, it’s a trend that won’t change anytime soon. See below for the marketshare breakdown on eBook sales:

Mark takes his projections a step further, and claims that by 2020, 50% of all eBook sales will be going to Indie authors. Based on the trends we can see today, it looks likely, and we’re thinking (and hoping) his prediction is spot on. See the chart below for the projections:

If that’s not enough evidence, Mark goes on to list 10 reasons why his projections are closer than most:

10 Reasons Indie Authors Will Capture Half of the Ebook Market by 2020 Print will continue to decline as a book-reading format as more readers transition to screens. The transition to screens will be driven by the low prices, selection, exceptional discoverability and instant reading pleasure delivered by ebooks. Brick and mortar bookstores will continue their march into the sunset with more store closures. I’m not happy about this, but I don’t see the trend reversing unless bookstores start serving wine and pot brownies in their cafes. The perceived value of publishers will decline in the eyes of writers as the importance of print distribution declines. Print distribution is an important glue that holds many writers to their traditional publishers. When publisher stickiness decreases, writers will be tempted to explore the indie author camp. Indie authors have learned to publish like professionals, which means self publishing will lead to more better books, and more diversity of better books. The professionalism and sophistication of indie authors has increased dramatically in the six years since we launched Smashwords, and this professionalism will increase in the future as indies pioneer tomorrow’s best practices. These authors are publishing books that are quality-competitive with traditionally published books, but priced dramatically lower. As a result, these authors have the ability to under-price, outsell and out-compete the ebooks from traditional publishers. It means indie authors will have platform-building advantages over traditionally published authors. The number of self-published ebooks will explode, and these ebooks will continue to enjoy democratized access to professional publishing and distribution tools such as Smashwords, and democratized access to global online retail distribution (every major ebook store wants to carry self-published ebooks). Every author – even indie authors – will face increased competition from the glut of high quality works that never go out of print. The most successful indie authors are mentoring the next generation of authors. Indie authors act like a vast publishing collective of writers helping writers. The stigma once associated with self publishing is melting away at the same time the stigma of traditional publishing is on the rise. Indie authors are in the cool kids club now. They know they can publish with pride and professionalism, and they’re developing teflon skin that deflects the once ego-bruising criticism levied by self publishing naysayers. If you haven’t been to a writers conference lately, go to one. A few years ago, writers would leave conferences depressed in the knowledge that their dream agent only accepts one in 10,000 queries. Today, writers attend conferences and learn to self publish like a pro. They leave the conference upbeat in the knowledge that one way or another, they’ll publish their book their way. Writers are discovering the joy of self publishing. If publishers are from Mars, authors are from Venus. They speak different languages and hold different values. The rewards of self publishing transcend the conventional and myopic commercial metric value systems of publishers. Indie authors are enjoying total creative control, faster time to market, ownership over their publishing future, and the flexibility to innovate and evolve their immortal ebooks which will never go out of print. Indie authors enjoy the freedom to serve their fans as they want to serve them. Icing on the indie author’s cake: Indie ebook authors earn royalty rates 4-5 times higher than they’d earn from traditional publishers. Readers don’t care about the publisher name on the ebook’s virtual spine. The brand they care about is the author brand. Indie authors are learning to build their own brands. The growing rift between writers and publishers will cause the next generation of writers to avoid shopping their books to publishers, and will undermine the goodwill of writers who until now have been loyal to their traditional publishers. Writers are angry. After centuries of living on the bottom rung of the publishing ladder, they’re feeling their oats and relishing their new-found power and respect. I wrote about this last week for Publishers Weekly in my opinion piece, Hugh Howey and the Indie Author Revolt (may require registration).

What do you think? Will indie author sales reach 50% of the marketshare for eBooks by 2020?