by Vince Verhei

Everyone reading this has a special talent. Yours might be poetry, or baking, or juggling. Perhaps you're a fine woodworker, or a dynamic speaker. Some of us were put on this world to heal the sick, educate the young, or care for the elderly. Others have a gift for spiritual guidance, or salesmanship, or pottery. Whether you're a barber or a soldier or a farmer or a chef, there is something you do better than almost anyone you know.

Whatever you do, though, odds are you don't do it nearly as well as Peyton Manning plays football these days.

Manning's destruction of the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday (good for a 28-34-327-4-0 statline) left him atop the Quick Reads tables for Week 4 going into the Monday night game. (NOTE: Quarterbacks keep having good games on Monday night and ruining my essays before they're even published. It's getting annoying. Knock it off guys.) He was also first in Week 1 and Week 3; in Week 2 he was fourth. Manning currently leads the league in completions (117), completion rate (75.0 percent), yards (1,470), yards per pass (9.4), touchdowns (16), touchdown rate (10.3 percent), and interception rate (0.0 percent), and he has been sacked only five times.

It's no surprise, then, that he also leads the league with 829 passing DYAR. That's a lot -- it would have ranked in the top ten last season -- but how does it compare to the great quarterbacks of the past, and what does it tell us about the future of Manning and the Denver Broncos this season?

Manning's 829 DYAR is a record for the first four weeks of a season, in a database that goes back more than 20 years:

This table shows the top 20 starts from 1989 through 2013. It's important to remember that this is passing DYAR only, and also that through 2012, the numbers shown include end-of-season opponent adjustments. The 2013 opponent adjustments could change substantially as we learn more about the quality of opposition for Manning, Rivers, and Matt Ryan (who finishes just outside this top 20 with 474 DYAR so far).

With all that in mind, the first conclusion is that we can not write Manning's performance off as a fluke of small sample size. Only two quarterbacks in our top 20 stayed healthy all year but fell out of the top four in passing DYAR. Both were New England Patriots in the year after a Super Bowl appearance. First came Drew Bledsoe in 1997, when the Patriots started 4-0. Bledsoe's completion rate stayed at 60 percent both before and after the Patriots' Week 5 bye, but he dropped from 7.9 yards per pass with 3.0 touchdowns per game to 6.8 yards per pass with 1.3 touchdowns per game. Then came Tom Brady in 2002. Through four games that year, the Patriots were 3-1, and Brady was completing nearly 70 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. From that point forward, his completion rate dipped below 59 percent, with 17 touchdowns and 10 picks, and New England went 6-6. They finished in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC East, but lost out on tiebreakers and missed the playoffs.

Barring injury or a Brady-like collapse (now there's a phrase I don't find myself typing very often), Manning should finish at or near the top of the passing tables, and the Broncos should be a high playoff seed. The median win-loss record for Manning's predecessors has been 12-4, and only two of those teams failed to make the playoffs. A Super Bowl Championship, though, is still a long shot. Two of these teams lost in the Wild Card round, eight lost in the Divisional round, one lost in the conference championship, and five lost the Super Bowl. Only one quarterback has started this hot and gone on to win a Super Bowl, and his name was Peyto--

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Uh-oh.

SURPRISING PLAYERS: Frank Gore led all rushers this week wth 153 yards, but he was only ninth among running backs in total DYAR. He did lose a fumble, and also had only three first downs on the day (one of those a touchdown). He was hit for not gain or a loss twice. Also, the two passes thrown his way were both incomplete.

Torrey Smith led the league with 166 yards receiving, and on only five catches, but he finished 10th among receivers because he was also the target on seven incompletions, two of them third downs in the red zone. Julio Jones was also the target on seven incomplete passes. That's why, despite six catches for 108 yards, he actually finished below replacement level. A fumble in the fourth quarter didn't help, even though Atlanta recovered. The first ten passes thrown Jones' way resulted in three catches for 22 yards and two first downs before his too-little-too-late explosion at the end of the game.

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 1. Drew Brees NO 30/39 413 4 0 250 248 2 2. Peyton Manning DEN 28/34 327 4 0 226 226 0 Peyton Manning, on a roll, is a scary, scary thing. He had some miscues in the first half. For example, he turned a first-and-10 into a punt by going sack, 4-yard completion, incomplete on three straight plays. After halftime, though, he was as close to unstoppable as you can be. In the third quarter (he didn't throw a pass in the fourth), he went 15-of-16 for 158 yards with three touchdowns and nine other first downs, plus a 6-yard DPI. Each of those 15 completions gained successful yardage. His last six passes each went for a first down, two of them for touchdowns. 3. Matt Ryan ATL 34/54 421 2 1 158 158 0 If we eliminate all red zone plays, Ryan was the week's most valuable quarterback. Inside the 20, though, he was in the bottom five, going 6-of-15 for 46 yards with one sack, one touchdown, and just one other first down. He had seven third- or fourth-down dropbacks in the red zone, and failed to convert any of them. 4. Philip Rivers SD 35/42 401 3 1 156 156 0 On deep passes (those that traveled at least 16 yards past the line of scrimmage), Rivers went 6-of-8 for 186 yards and two touchdowns. Seven of those throws came with San Diego trailing or tied. In other news, Dallas needs new safeties. 5. Tom Brady NE 20/31 316 2 0 138 148 -10 Brady avoided disaster against Atlanta, and ranks this high mainly because he had no sacks or interceptions. It was a streaky game for the Pats QB; twice he went at least four straight dropbacks without gaining successful yardage, but three times he put together at least four successful plays in a row, and on two separate occasions he picked up five first downs in a stretch of six dropbacks. 6. Brian Hoyer CLE 25/38 269 2 0 103 99 4 First quarter: 8-of-8 for 80 yards with four first downs, capped off by a go-ahead touchdown. He did not throw a single pass all game to the deep middle or deep right areas of the field, but he threw nine to the deep left, completing three of them for 80 yards. 7. Tony Romo DAL 27/37 250 2 0 101 96 5 A poor start, going 1-of-5 with two sacks, with the only completion a 7-yard gain on second-and-10 that led to a third-down sack. Then each of his next six dropbacks produced first downs, finished with a game-tying touchdown, for 56 combined yards. He struggled all day on third down, though, going just 2-of-7 for 15 yards with two first downs and a sack. 8. Jake Locker TEN 18/24 149 3 0 90 86 5 In reference to our discussion on Locker in this week's Audibles, only two of Locker's completions this week came on deep throws. For the season, he is fourth overall in DYAR on short throws, but third-worst in DYAR on deep balls. 9. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 36/48 383 1 1 68 68 0 Roethlisberger had 30 successful plays and 22 first downs, both most among quarterbacks this week. Not enough of those, though, came in the red zone, where Roethlisberger went 7-of-12 for 46 yards with one touchdowns, two other first downs, and two sacks. He had four goal-to-go plays: two incompletions and two sacks, one of which resulted in a lost fumble with the Steelers down by seven in the fourth quarter. 10. Matt Cassel MIN 16/25 248 2 0 68 63 4 Cassel started off just just 4-of-12. (Granted, one of those completions was a 70-yard touchdown, but still.) Then he was sacked and fumbled on third down. That should have been the end of the drive, but Jerome Simpson recovered the fumble and turned it into a first down. That random bit of luck seemed to turn things around for Cassel, who proceeded to go 12-of-13 from that point forward. Even there, he couldn't help but be Matt Cassel — Those 12 completions picked up only four first downs, including another touchdown. 11. Michael Vick PHI 14/27 248 0 0 59 52 8 When Vick and the Eagles took the field in the third quarter, they were only down by 15 points, and the game was still within reach. On the next three drives, Vick went 1-of-7 for 27 yards with two sacks. That third drive ended with a blocked punt and a Denver touchdown that put the Broncos up by 36. 12. Colin Kaepernick SF 15/23 167 2 0 55 50 5 First two third downs: Two incompletes. Next four third downs: four conversions, for 89 total yards, with two touchdowns. Last four third downs: Two incompletes, two completions for 9 yards, no conversions. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 13. Matt Schaub HOU 31/49 355 2 2 53 54 -1 First half: 17-of-27 for 226 yards with two touchdowns and 12 other first downs, plus a 10-yard DPI. Even though he threw a red zone interception, he still had the best first half of any quarterback this week. After the break, he went 14-of-22 for 129 yards, with just seven first downs, four sacks, and a game-tying pick-six. 14. Ryan Fitzpatrick TEN 3/8 108 1 0 44 44 0 He started with a 25-yard pass to Kendall Wright, and ended with a 77-yard touchdown to Nate Washington. In between he went 1-of-6 for 6 yards, with five incompletions in a row. We probably should have mentioned Fitzpatrick's name last week in our discussion of top backups, but that's irrelevant, because now he's a starter for the immediate future. 15. Alex Smith KC 24/41 288 3 2 37 25 12 Third downs: 10-of-14 for 110 yards with eight first downs, including all three touchdowns. 16. Robert Griffin WAS 19/31 227 1 0 15 17 -2 To either side: 10-of-20 for 110 yards, with just four first downs. Up the middle: 8-of-10 for 117 yards, with one touchdown and six other first downs. 17. Andrew Luck IND 22/36 260 2 1 14 5 9 First half: 14-of-27 for 140 yards with seven first downs, one interception, and one sack. Fortunately he was playing the Jaguars, and so he and the Colts were still ahead 20-3. At that point Luck apparently realized, "Wait a minute, man, I'm playing the Jaguars." And after halftime he completed nine passes in a row (with one sack in the mix) for 120 yards with two touchdowns and six other first downs. And then his last pass fell incomplete. Alas. 18. Matthew Stafford DET 23/35 242 1 1 -6 5 -12 It just occurred to me that for the second straight week, there are a lot of quarterbacks below replacement level. Could be a two-week fluke. Could be Peyton Manning playing so well he's throwing the entire system out of whack. We'll see. Anyway. Stafford went just 2-of-7 on third downs for 16 yards and only one conversion. 19. Eli Manning NYG 19/37 217 1 1 -10 -16 6 Manning's first third-down pass was a conversion, a 16-yard gain to Hakeem Nicks on third-and-1.That was the last third-down he would convert on the day. After that, he went 1-of-7 for 16 yards with a fumbled snap, two sacks (including another fumble), and an interception. (He also went 1-of-2 for 7 yards on fourth down, with one conversion.) 20. Carson Palmer ARI 22/38 248 1 2 -37 -39 2 Speaking of lousy third-down passing: Palmer went 2-of-8 for 11 yards and zero conversions on third down. He had four throws on third down with less than 10 yards needed for a first down, and went incomplete on all of them. 21. Jay Cutler CHI 27/47 317 2 3 -43 -47 4 Cutler's first 12 third-down plays resulted in no conversions, five completions for 21 yards, three incompletions, two interceptions, two sacks, and a fumble that was returned for a Lions touchdown. His last third-down throw was his only conversion, a 10-yard touchdown that pulled Chicago within eight points with 43 seconds to play. He did convert both of his fourth-down throws, for 22 total yards, including a touchdown. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR 22. Ryan Tannehill MIA 22/35 249 1 3 -49 -51 3 23. E.J. Manuel BUF 10/22 167 1 2 -31 -18 -14 For a change of pace, here's a passer who struggled on second down. Manuel's first second-down throw resulted in a 6-yard DPI. After that, he went 0-of-5 with a sack-fumble and an interception. 24. Russell Wilson SEA 12/23 123 0 1 -61 -92 30 Outside his own 40, Wilson went 3-of-12 for 25 yards with one first down, one interception, and two sacks. HOW ON EARTH DID SEATTLE WIN THIS GAME? Well, it helped that he had eight carries on the day for 78 yards and three first downs. 25. Sam Bradford STL 19/41 204 1 1 -68 -68 0 Bradford threw eight passes to the short middle area of the defense, to six different receivers. Those passes resulted in three receptions for 20 yards, including a 6-yard touchdown that came when the Rams were down by 25 points in the fourth quarter. 26. Geno Smith NYJ 23/34 289 1 2 -77 -72 -5 This is where you fit when you give up five sacks (including a fumble) and two interceptions. Five of those disastrous plays came on first-and-10. 27. Andy Dalton CIN 23/42 206 0 1 -90 -94 5 Inside the Cleveland 40, Dalton went 5-of-10 for 24 yards with one first down and one first down. In related news, the Bengals scored six points. 28. Matt Flynn OAK 21/32 227 1 1 -113 -107 -6 This was, um, not as good as Flynn's last start. His first third down resulted in a sack. His next four were all conversions for 48 total yards, including a touchdown. He didn't convert another third down all day, going 3-of-7 for 10 yards with a pick-six and three sacks. 29. Mike Glennon TB 25/43 193 1 2 -130 -117 -13 After halftime, the Bucs had a 10-0 lead. While attempting to defend that lead, Glennon went 9-of-18 for 78 yards with four first downs, one sack, one intentional grounding foul, and two interceptions. 30. Blaine Gabbert JAC 17/32 179 0 3 -139 -141 2 Through three quarters, Gabbert went 8-of-16 for 44 yards, with as many first downs (two) as interceptions, one of which was returned for a Colts touchdown. Oh and he had also been sacked four times. With the Jaguars safely down by 31 points, he then did some major league stats padding in the fourth quarter. 31. Joe Flacco BAL 25/50 347 2 5 -194 -194 0 Five interceptions will land you at the bottom of these tables pretty much every time. On third downs, Flacco went 5-of-15 for 58 yards with as many conversions (three) as interceptions, plus one sack.

Five most valuable running backs Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Reggie Bush DET 139 1 34 0 52 47 6 When you see Reggie Bush in Quick Reads, it's usually safe to assume he did a lot of damage as a receiver. Not this week though. He caught four of six passes for 34 yards and only two first downs. Six of his 18 runs, on the other hand, gained at least 10 yards, including a 37-yard touchdown. That was enough to put him on top of the tables, even though he had a fumble. 2. Knowshon Moreno DEN 78 1 13 0 52 43 9 Moreno's first four carries only went for 13 yards. After that, he ran eight times for 65 yards, including four runs of 10 or more yards, and also had a 4-yard touchdown. He was only thrown one pass, but it was complete for 13 yards. 3. Danny Woodhead SD 32 0 54 2 50 18 32 Woodhead only carried five times, but all of them gained at least 2 yards, and he had a 14-yarder and also converted a second-and-1. He caught five of seven passes for 54 yards with three first downs, including touchdowns of 13 and 26 yards. 4. Adrian Peterson MIN 140 2 0 0 32 37 -6 Peterson gashed the Steelers for 140 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries. The Vikings threw him one pass, and it went incomplete. He was hit for no gain or a loss only three times, but had only two 10-yard carries. He did pick up four other first downs though. 5. Chris Ogbonnaya CLE 27 0 21 1 30 14 16 Ogbonnaya caught every pass thrown his way, including a goal-line touchdown and a first down on second-and-8. He only ran five times, but every carry gained 2 to 11 yards, and he converted a pair of third-and-1s.

Least valuable running back Rk Player Team Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR 1. Rashard Mendenhall ARI 21 0 13 0 -45 -44 -2 Bruce Arians' comments to Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic following Sunday's game: "Rashard had a very tough day and he can't play that way. ... We need to practice him a little bit harder. I think we've been too easy on him in practice because of his injuries, and we need to hone him up more because he's not gaining anything." This is what coaches say when their running backs get 12 carries, none longer than 6 yards, with three stuffs and two fumbles. Oh, and in four targets, he had three receptions, 13 total yards, and no first downs.

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR 1. Jimmy Graham NO 4 4 100 25.0 2 57 2. Tony Gonzalez ATL 12 14 149 12.4 2 56 Remember when this guy said he was going to retire? The best tight end of all time had touchdowns of 21 and 11 yards, and had eight catches of 10 or more yards, including three of 20 or more. 3. Jerricho Cotchery PIT 5 6 103 20.6 1 51 Each of Cotchery's catches gained at least 10 yards, including 26- and 36-yarders, plus a 15-yard touchdown. 4. Demaryius Thomas DEN 9 10 86 9.6 2 47 Eight of Thomas' catches produced first downs, including 1- and 15-yard touchdown grabs. 5. Marques Colston NO 7 8 96 13.7 0 47