Chart 1: Cumulative Number of COVID-19 Positive Tests in New Mexico, The Albuquerque Area, and Santa Fe County. Created by Marv Alme

Chart 2: Number of COVID-19 Positive Tests in New Mexico, The Albuquerque Area, and Santa Fe County. Created by Marv Alme

By MARV ALME

Los Alamos

The doubling time of the cumulative number of positive COVID-19 Test Results in New Mexico is almost certainly increasing.

This is illustrated in the first chart “Cumulative Number of COVID-19 Positive Tests in New Mexico, The Albuquerque Area, and Santa Fe County.” Note that the Blue Arrows indicate the implementation date of the New Mexico Department of Health’s (DOH) Public Health Emergency Orders.

Given the systematic variations in the reported data, it is likely that the cumulative data is adequately represented by the piece-wise exponential functions displayed in that chart.

The quality of the data being reported by the DOH is improving as more COVID-19 tests are administered and the number of test sites increases. Hence our confidence in the results of this simple analysis is growing on a daily basis.

The DOH’s Public Health Emergency Orders are having an impact and we are hopeful that impact will become more obvious in the test results over the next week and the following week.

While the doubling time is lengthening, New Mexico is in a situation where the number of new COVID-19 cases is increasing on a daily basis. This is represented in the chart “Number of COVID-19 Positive Tests in New Mexico, The Albuquerque Area, and Santa Fe County.”

This chart compares the new cases as reported daily by the DOH with the new cases contained in the exponential fits. The data reported today (April 3rd) represents a significant increase in the number of positive tests; the 92 new cases are the largest to date for New Mexico. Hopefully this is 23% increase is a spike similar to the 40% on March 27.

Although the results reported here are for Bernalillo, Sandoval and Santa Fe Counties, we are tracking all of the counties in New Mexico. There are five counties in New Mexico with populations greater than 100,000: Bernalillo, Doña Ana, San Juan, Sandoval and Santa Fe. The six counties in New Mexico with 20 or more Positive COVID-19 test results are these five plus McKinley County (Gallup). These six counties contain 66% of New Mexico’s population and about 86% of the positive COVID-19 test results. We also note that 12 of New Mexico’s 33 counties have reported no positive COVID-19 test results, but they comprise only 5.4% of the state’s population.