In their latest post NFL-draft predictions, ESPN and Football Outsiders are projecting the Carolina Panthers will win the NFC South in 2017.

Their model has Carolina winning nine games, tying the Atlanta Falcons for the most division wins but clinching the title on a tie-breaker.

Here’s a look at how they think each NFC South team will perform this year:

Carolina Panthers: 9-7 (9.1 mean wins, SOS: 28)

Atlanta Falcons: 9-7 (8.5 mean wins, SOS: 15)

New Orleans Saints: 7-9 (7.0 mean wins, SOS: 19)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9 (6.8 mean wins, SOS: 17)

Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz explains why they’re predicting a rebound for these Panthers and a dropoff for the Falcons:

Carolina’s projection is pretty simple: a bit of rebound on both sides of the ball combined with an easy schedule. (It helps, for example, to play San Francisco instead of one of the other three NFC West teams.) The Panthers will have a close race with the Falcons, whose late-season defensive improvement is likely to continue in 2017. However, we’re also expecting some regression from the Atlanta offense, particularly because of the loss of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan.

You can read the full predictions for all 32 teams here.