NATIONAL: STRONG ECONOMY DOESN’T HIT HOME

Health care costs top list of pocketbook concerns

West Long Branch, NJ – Few Americans feel they have personally benefited a great deal from the nation’s growing economy, with the wealthy seen as getting a lot more help from President Donald Trump’s policies than either the middle class or the poor. The Monmouth University Poll also finds health care costs continue to top a wide variety of concerns that American families are facing.

Only 12% of Americans say that their family has benefited a great deal from recent growth in the U.S. economy and another 31% say they have received some benefit from the economic upturn. A majority, though, say they have been helped either not much (27%) or not at all (27%) from the nation’s macroeconomic growth. These results are nearly identical to Monmouth polls taken in 2018 as well as just before Trump took office in January 2017. Only 34% of those earning less than $50,000 a year and 42% of those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 say they have benefited at least somewhat from the growing economy. This contrasts with those earning more the $100,000, where a majority (58%) say they have benefited.

Currently, just 18% of Americans say that middle-class families in general have benefited a lot from Trump’s policies so far, 37% say that middle-class families have benefited a little and 36% say they have not benefited at all. These results are similar to a year ago, when 14% said the middle class benefited a lot, 45% a little, and 36% not at all. Public expectations were somewhat more positive shortly before Trump took office in January 2017, when 26% predicted that the middle class would see a lot of benefit from the new president’s policies, 40% said the middle class would see a little, and 29% said the middle class would not see any change in their situation.

“There just isn’t a sense that Donald Trump has come to the rescue of the middle class. He has his staunch defenders, but there hasn’t been any clear success in winning over the public on bread-and-butter issues,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

A majority of Americans (58%) say that wealthy families have benefited a lot from Trump’s policies, 22% say the wealthy have benefited a little, and just 9% say not at all. These results are in line with results from a year ago (57% a lot, 26% a little, 7% not at all) as well as public expectations shortly before Trump took office (55% a lot, 31% a little, 7% not at all). Poor families continue to be seen as doing the worst under Trump, with just 14% saying that poor families have benefited a lot from the president’s policies and 26% saying a little, while just over half (51%) say the poor have not benefited at all. These results are nearly identical to a year ago (12% a lot, 28% a little, 53% not at all). More people expected that the poor would fare well when Trump first took office. In January 2017, 21% said poor families would see a lot of benefit from the new president’s policies, 36% said a little, and 37% said not at all.

Over half (54%) of the public say their current financial situation is stable, with the remainder divided between those saying they are struggling to remain where they are (20%) and those saying their situation is improving (25%). The number who say they are struggling has gone down since Trump took office (from 29% in January 2017 and 24% in April 2018) while the number who say their situation is improving has risen slightly (from 20% in January 2017 and 23% in April 2018). The number who say there has been no change in their financial situation has remained fairly stable (51% in both 2017 and 2018). Those earning less than $50,000 a year are less likely to say that they are struggling now (32%) than said the same either one year ago (41%) or two years ago (46%). However, lower income residents continue to struggle more than those earning $50,000 to $100,000 (13%) or more than $100,000 (7%).

“One bit of good news in this poll is the decrease in the number of low income families who feel like they are struggling to stay afloat. However, this does not erase the general sense that administration policies really haven’t been of much help to working Americans,” said Murray.

When asked to name the biggest concern facing their families right now, the most commonly named problem is the cost of health care at 19%, which is up from 13% last year but down from 25% two years ago. This is followed by taxes at 9% (7% in 2018 and 4% in 2017), everyday bills such as groceries at 8% (12% in 2018 and 12% in 2017), job security and employment worries at 7% (9% in 2018 and 14% in 2017), the economy in general at 6% (3% in 2018 and 3% in 2017), and immigration at 5% (4% in 2018 and 3% in 2017). Other concerns include tuition and school costs (3%), civil rights (3%), social security (3%), family illness (3%), safety and crime (3%), the environment (3%), housing costs (2%), quality of government (2%), and education policy (2%).

Among those who earn $50,000 or less, the top concerns are health care (21%), everyday bills (13%), and jobs (10%). Among those who earn between $50,000 and $100,000, the top concerns are health care (20%), everyday bills (9%), and taxes (9%). Among those who earn more than $100,000, the top concerns are taxes (14%), health care (13%), and immigration (7%).

Just 14% say that federal government actions have helped their family with their top concern over the past year while 42% say that the government’s actions have actually hurt their family in this area. Another 42% say the government has had no impact. These results are nearly identical to a year ago (14% helped, 39% hurt, 44% no impact) and slightly more negative than they were before Trump took office (27% helped, 37% hurt, 34% no impact).

The Monmouth University Poll also finds that few Americans are optimistic about the future impact government actions will have on their main concern. Currently, 29% expect that Washington’s actions over the next few years will help their family with their top concern, 32% expect that they will be hurt, and 26% expect no change. One year ago, 26% expected that federal policies would help their family situation, 36% said they would be hurt, and 27% expected no impact either way. Days before Trump moved into the White House, more than 4-in-10 (42%) expected that the federal government would eventually help their family’s top concern, 33% expected to be hurt, and 21% expected no change.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from April 11 to 15, 2019 with 801 adults in the United States. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[Q1-17 previously released.]

Turning to issues closer to home, what is the biggest concern facing your family right now? [LIST WAS NOT READ]

TREND: April

2019 April

2018 Jan.

2017 Jan.

2015 Health care costs 19% 13% 25% 15% Taxes 9% 7% 4% 7% Everyday bills, groceries, etc. 8% 12% 12% 16% Job security, unemployment 7% 9% 14% 16% The economy 6% 3% 3% 2% Immigration 5% 4% 3% 1% Civil rights 3% 1% 3% n/a Climate change, environment 3% 1% 1% n/a College tuition, school costs 3% 4% 4% 10% Family illness, health 3% 3% 3% 4% Safety, crime 3% 3% 3% 2% Social Security, seniors 3% 3% 3% 2% Education policy 2% 2% 1% 2% Housing, mortgage, rent 2% 4% 3% 4% Quality of government 2% 3% 1% 2% Guns, gun ownership 1% 2% n/a n/a Terrorism, national security 1% 2% 2% 1% Trump as president 1% 1% 1% n/a Retirement saving 0% 1% 2% 3% Other 5% 5% 2% 4% Don’t know/No answer 16% 15% 10% 8% (n) (801) (803) (801) (1,003)

[Question 19 was asked of only those who mentioned a concern in Q18: n=692, moe=+/-3.7%]

Thinking about this most important concern, have the actions of the federal government over the past year helped, hurt, or had no real impact on this concern?

TREND: April

2019 April

2018 Jan.

2017* Jan.

2015* Helped 14% 14% 27% 14% Hurt 42% 39% 37% 47% No real impact 42% 44% 34% 38% (VOL) Don’t know 2% 3% 2% 2% (n) (692) (680) (728) (926)

[*Questions in 2017 and 2015 asked about “the past few years”]

[Question 20 was asked of only those who mentioned a concern in Q18: n=692, moe=+/-3.7%]

And do you think the actions of the federal government over the next few years will help, hurt, or have no real impact on this concern?

TREND: April

2019 April

2018 Jan.

2017 Help 29% 26% 42% Hurt 32% 36% 33% No real impact 26% 27% 21% (VOL) Don’t know 13% 11% 4% (n) (692) (680) (728)

Thinking about your current financial situation, would you say you are struggling to remain where you are financially, basically stable in your current financial situation, or is your financial situation improving?

TREND: April

2019 April

2018 Jan.

2017 Struggling 20% 24% 29% Stable 54% 51% 51% Improving 25% 23% 20% (VOL) Don’t know 1% 2% 0% (n) (801) (803) (801)

Recent indicators have shown that the U.S. economy has been growing, including lower unemployment, higher productivity, and a high Dow Jones average. How much has your family benefitted from this economic upturn – a great deal, some, not much, or not at all?

TREND: April

2019 Aug.

2018 April

2018 Jan.

2017 Aug.

2016* Jan.

2015 Great deal 12% 18% 12% 12% 11% 8% Some 31% 32% 32% 35% 32% 31% Not much 27% 20% 24% 29% 26% 32% Not at all 27% 27% 29% 23% 28% 29% (VOL) Don’t know 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 0% (n) (801) (805) (803) (801) (803) (1,003)

*Registered voters

[Q23-24 previously released.]

How much have each of the following groups benefited from President Trump’s policies so far. [READ ITEM] – Have they benefited a lot, a little, or not at all? [ITEMS WERE ROTATED]

Middle-class families

TREND: April

2019 April

2018 Dec.

2017 Expectations for Trump Jan. 2017 Benefited under Obama

July 2013 A lot 18% 14% 11% 26% 12% A little 37% 45% 25% 40% 39% Not at all 36% 36% 53% 29% 46% (VOL) Don’t know 9% 5% 11% 5% 2% (n) (801) (803) (806) (801) (1,012)

Wealthy families

TREND: April

2019 April

2018 Expectations for Trump Jan. 2017 Benefited under Obama

July 2013 A lot 58% 57% 55% 35% A little 22% 26% 31% 31% Not at all 9% 7% 7% 23% (VOL) Don’t know 11% 10% 7% 10% (n) (801) (803) (801) (1,012)

Poor families

TREND: April

2019 April

2018 Expectations for Trump Jan. 2017 Benefited under Obama

July 2013 A lot 14% 12% 21% 20% A little 26% 28% 36% 39% Not at all 51% 53% 37% 37% (VOL) Don’t know 9% 7% 6% 4% (n) (801) (803) (801) (1,012)

[Q26-31 held for future release.]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from April 11 to 15, 2019 with a national random sample of 801 adults age 18 and older, in English. This includes 320 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 481 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone. Telephone numbers were selected through random digit dialing and landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Dynata (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Self-Reported 25% Republican 44% Independent 31% Democrat 48% Male 52% Female 30% 18-34 33% 35-54 37% 55+ 64% White 12% Black 16% Hispanic 8% Asian/Other 69% No degree 31% 4 year degree

MARGIN OF ERROR unweighted sample moe

(+/-) TOTAL 801 3.5% REGISTERED VOTER Yes 711 3.7% No 90 10.3% SELF-REPORTED PARTY ID Republican 193 7.1% Independent 348 5.3% Democrat 249 6.2% IDEOLOGY Liberal 212 6.7% Moderate 287 5.8% Conservative 280 5.9% GENDER Male 396 4.9% Female 405 4.9% AGE 18-34 159 7.8% 35-54 301 5.7% 55+ 336 5.4% RACE White, non-Hispanic 574 4.1% Other 198 7.0% COLLEGE GRADUATE No degree 390 5.0% 4 year degree 405 4.9% WHITE COLLEGE White, no degree 272 6.0% White, 4 year degree 301 5.7% INCOME <$50K 274 5.9% $50 to <100K 219 6.6% $100K+ 245 6.3% 2016 VOTE BY COUNTY Trump 10+ pts 267 6.0% Swing <10 pts 158 7.8% Clinton 10+ pts 372 5.1%

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