Network Rail is planning for fewer than one in 10 trains to run if next week’s strike goes ahead, with Gatwick airport cut off in a peak holiday week and British steel production being brought to a halt, leaked documents setting out its contingency plans show.

While some East Coast services will run, the documents show Scotland will effectively be cut off by rail from England, with no trains on the mainline between Newcastle and Edinburgh, as well as the full West Coast closure.



The track operator also fears major business contracts could haemorrhage from railway to road if disruption continues, including mail services and freight links serving the UK’s major delivery hubs, according to documents seen by the Guardian.

No freight trains will run between Sunday night and Wednesday. The analysis shows even a 24-hour stoppage would have a critical impact on iron and could bring production to a halt at the Tata steelworks.



Passengers have already been warned to expect huge disruption to trains, with no services at all on Tuesday on South West Trains, the biggest commuter network, or on Virgin’s west coast intercity trains. Commuter services in major cities including Liverpool, Manchester, Glasgow and Edinburgh will also be severely disrupted.

It is understood senior Network Rail executives tabled a new pay offer to union leaders at talks at Acas on Thursday, and a deal may be close which would avert strike action. The original four-year deal froze salaries at inflation and did not extend guarantees against feared job losses until beyond 2016.

The leaked documents show the importance of Network Rail’s legal challenge to one union’s strike ballot, being heard in the high court on Thursday. While the TSSA union’s membership is only a fraction of the RMT’s, Network Rail believes it can run around half the normal service to Gatwick airport on Tuesday should the TSSA be prevented from striking. Otherwise, no trains would run to the airport that day, affecting travellers and airport staff, and potentially damaging the airport’s prospects of expansion instead of Heathrow.



Passenger trains will be particularly affected on Tuesday, when key commuter services will be out of action as people return to work after the bank holiday, but many will also be cancelled on Monday as the strike starts at 5pm. Contingency plans are being drawn up for the Championship play-off final at Wembley, as well as the Three Queens event in Liverpool – an unprecedented gathering of the world’s three largest cruise ships that is expected to draw 600,000 people.



Network Rail is planning to publish full timetables on Sunday afternoon, the last moment when it believes industrial action could be averted. A fourth consecutive day of talks at Acas started at 9am on Thursday after running late into the previous evening.

As potential passengers start to redraw their own travel plans, motoring organisations warned that the traditional holiday jams were likely to intensify. The RAC, which estimates that 20 million drivers could take to the road over the bank holiday weekend, said: “If the strike does go ahead, it’s likely to add to the jams that we’re expecting on many of the major routes.”

Highways England has further suspended many roadworks on motorways and main roads until Thursday morning in anticipation of the rail strike.



Coach companies have put on extra services to meet demand, with National Express so far adding 18,000 extra seats.



Most Tube services in the capital will run as normal but are likely to be very crowded, with commuter trains and London Overground largely out of action on Tuesday. Transport for London is running around 100 extra bus services.

Michael Roberts, director general of the Rail Delivery Group, which represents Network Rail and train operators, said later on Thursday that talks were continuing and they hoped an agreement could be reached. “The proposed industrial action will severely affect the travel plans of millions of passengers, stop vital freight deliveries, and disrupt lives and the economy.”