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Hit Power SB Field Overall 70 80 30 55 80

Background: Just three years into his professional career, it’s probably easier to list what the transcendent, once-in-a-lifetime prospect hasn’t accomplished: make his much anticipated big league debut. And to be fair that’s not for a lack of otherworldly numbers. Toronto’s front office, led by former Indians personnel Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins, was taken to the woodshed in the national media for not promoting the uber-prospect, including an article posted by USA Today entitled, “It’s time to publicly mock the Blue Jays for not calling up Vlad Guerrero Jr.” . The son of former AL MVP and Hall of Famer bearing the name, the hype on Junior reached a boiling point. After slugging .271/.359/.449 as a 17-year-old in the Appalachian League three years ago, Guerrero ripped through the Midwest and Florida State Leagues the following season, slugging a whopping .323/.425/.485 with 28 doubles, two triples, and 13 homeruns. And last season, despite being limited to fewer than 100 games due to some lower body issues, Guerrero made quick work of the minors’ most important challenge – Class AA – and breezed through a 30-game cameo in the International League. He finished the year with a Ruthian .381/.437/.636 triple-slash line. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 94%.

Analysis: One of the purest hitters in the minor leagues – and, likely, eventually the big leagues – with plus-plus power all wrapped up in a 20-year-old prospect. And that’s before his defensive position is factored in. Agile at the hot corner, Guerrero’s consistently posted above-average numbers in terms of runs saved. Guerrero shows easy, effortless power thanks to explosive wrists and plus-plus bat speed. In six years of writing about prospects, he’s as flawless as I’ve seen. But perhaps the most incredible feat accomplished by Guerrero last season was this: he posted a 38-to-37 strikeout-to-walk ratio. With respect to his overall production, consider the following:

Since 2006, only one hitter – former big league veteran Kevin Kouzmanoff – topped Guerrero’s 203 wRC+ mark in the Eastern League (min. 250 PA). Kouzmanoff, who was five years his senior, was a competent, league average hitter in 685 big league games.

There’s really nothing to add to the analysis. He’s already a star; he just needs a shot at the big leagues.

Ceiling: 7.0-win player

Risk: Low

MLB ETA: 2019

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2. Bo Bichette, SS

Hit Power SB Field Overall 60 55 55 50 65

Background: There aren’t too many prospects that could steal Bichette’s thunder, but unfortunately for the former second round pick one of those few happen to play in the same system. A product of Lakewood High School in Petersburg, Florida, Bichette, like his top prospect counterpart, shares some famous bloodlines. His father, Dante, of course, slugged .299/.336/.499 over 14 successful big league seasons. The younger Bichette spent last season as the only hitter under the age of 21 to receive at least 300 plate appearances in the Eastern League. The 6-foot, 200-pound shortstop batted an impressive .286/.343/.453 with 43 doubles, the third most in all the minor leagues, seven triples, and 11 homeruns. According to Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the EL league average mark by 20%. And Baseball Prospectus’ newest stat, Deserved Runs Created Plus, measured Bichette’s production as 13% better than the league average.

Analysis: A steal in the second round just three years ago, Bichette’s another hitter with phenomenal bat control. He doesn’t offer up the power potential as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but all the doubles he’s slugged over the past two seasons – 84, to be exact – are going to grow some legs and turn into dingers in the coming years. He shows an average eye at the plate, above-average or better speed, and the defensive chops to remain at the most important infield position on the diamond. With respect to his production, consider the following:

Since 2006 here’s the list of 20-year-old hitters to post a wRC+ total between 115 and 125 in the Eastern League (min. 300 PA): Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Gomez, Travis Snider, J.P. Crawford, and – of course – Bo Bichette. And here are their respective career big league wRC+ totals: 131 (Rizzo), 96 (Gomez), Snider (93), and 91 (Crawford).

OK. Let’s play devil’s advocate here for a minutes. Let’s just assume Bichette turns into – roughly – a league average big MLB hitter. Throw in his consistently solid defense and that puts him into the Jose Peraza category worth about 3.0 wins above replacement.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

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3. Nate Pearson, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 80 50/55 55/60 45 55 60+

Background: A first round pick out of JuCo Central Florida Community College two years ago after posting some absurdly dominant numbers, Pearson finished his time with the Patriots with a mindboggling 118-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 81.0 innings of work; he posted a laughable 1.56 ERA as well. After Toronto drafted him with the 28th overall pick, Pearson remained equally unhittable during his pro debut as well, fanning 26 and walking just five in 20.0 innings of low level work. The burly right-hander looked poised for big things heading into 2018 and then just 1.2 innings into his High Class A debut a comebacker broke his ulna and knocked him out of action for the rest of the year.

Analysis: All the missed time wasn’t enough to limit Pearson’s national exposure. Of course, throwing 102 and 103 mph certainly will do that for a prospect. Pearson’s a max effort guy with two above-average or better breaking pitches: a hard-tilting slider that tunnels exceptionally well with his fastball and a curveball that at times can get a touch too loopy. He’ll also mix in a changeup as well. Unlike a lot of other throwers who show the potential to touch triple-digits, Pearson – generally – keeps the ball around the strike zone. He has the arsenal to ascend towards the top of a rotation, but he’ll need to continue to prove he can consistently throw his breaking pitches for quality strikes – which he’s done thus far.

Ceiling: 3.5- to 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

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FB CB SL CH Control Overall 65 60 50 45 45/50 60+

Background: In the running for my favorite minor league arm for the past couple of seasons now. A superficial disappointing season in the Eastern League in 2017 caused some of Reid-Foley’s luster among the national media to dull a bit. But the former second rounder, known around these parts as the Hyphenated Assassin, came storming back in a massive way. Making stops with New Hampshire and Buffalo, the 6-foot-3, 220-pound right-hander tallied 129.2 minor league innings, recording a whopping 150 strikeouts against 50 free passes en route to posting a 3.26 ERA. Reid-Foley also made seven starts with Toronto as well, posting a 42-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 33.1 innings of work.

Analysis: Well-built with long limps and a whip for an arm. Reid-Foley generates easy plus velocity on his fastball, which sits 93- to 96-mph and peaked at 97 mph. The promising hurler – who was born in Guam, by the way – complements the heater with a plus-curveball with tight break, an average slider, and a changeup that needs some work. His control/command is still a bit underdeveloped, which cuts into his overall ceiling, but he could slide comfortably in the middle of a big league rotation tomorrow. With respect to his work in the International League last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 22-year-old pitchers that posted at least a 26% strikeout percentage with a sub-10% walk percentage in the International League (min. 75 IP): Brent Honeywell, Jose Berrios, and Sean Reid-Foley.

Three of the top young arms in baseball, Honeywell missed all of last season due to Tommy John surgery and Berrios is tallied 6.2 wins above replacement since 2017.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2018

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5. Danny Jansen, C

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50 55 30 45 60

Background: A late blooming prospect who continues to mash at the dish. Jansen, taken by the Blue Jays out of West High School in the 16th round six years ago, turned a lot of heads after his shocking performance at the plate in 2017. Splitting time at three different levels, the 6-foot-2, 225-pound backstop slugged .323/.400/.484 with 25 doubles, two triples, and 10 homeruns. But perhaps the most impressive feat was his 40-to-41 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Still, though, there remained some naysayers and nonbelievers heading into last season. After all, he was an older prospect battling against similarly-aged competition. And then 2018 happened. Jansen batted an impressive .275/.390/.473 with 21 doubles, one triple, and 12 homeruns in just 88 games with the Buffalo Bisons. And he continued to hit upon his promotion up to Toronto, posting a solid .247/.347/.432 in 95 plate appearances.

Analysis: Let’s just jump right into the production. Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 23-year-old hitters to post a wRC+ total between 140 and 150 in the International League (min. 300 PA): Josh Bell, Marcus Semien, Trea Turner, and Danny Jansen. Sans Jansen, here are the trio’s career wRC+ marks in the big leagues: 110 (Bell), 96 (Semien), and 112 (Turner).

That bodes incredibly well for Toronto’s long term backstop. Jansen’s one of the more saber-friendly catching prospects in the minor leagues. He, simply, does everything reasonable well: incredible bat control (a running theme among the system’s top hitters), elite patience at the plate, and above-average power. The lone knock on Janesen’s otherwise pristine resume: his work behind the dish. He’s typically graded out as a below-average defender who struggles controlling the running game. Toronto made the mistake of giving away Yan Gomes a couple years ago. Now they have a sillier bat with slightly worse defense.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2018

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6. Eric Pardinho, RHP

FB CB CH Control Overall 55/60 55/60 50 55/60 60+

Background: Handed a hefty $1.4 million deal as a 16-year-old amateur free agent a couple years ago. Pardinho, a 5-foot-10, 155-pound right-hander, made his anticipated professional debut in 2018. As one of just two 17-year-olds to throw a pitch in the Appalachian League, Pardinho pitched with the guile and poise that belied his youthful appearance. In 11 starts with Bluefield, the Brazilian righty recorded a promising 64-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 50.0 innings of work. He finished his debut season with a 2.88 ERA and a 3.62 DRA.

Analysis: Not only does Pardinho control and command the strike zone impressively well for any age, but his has the type of arsenal that screams future upper-rotation-type arm. His fastball sits comfortably in the low 90s and should see an uptick as he begins to fill out. His curveball, a solid 12-6 breaking ball, flashes plus. And his changeup is a strong third offering. The lone knock on Pardinho is his slight frame.

Ceiling: 3.0- to 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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Hit Power SB Field Overall 50 55 30 50 60

Background: Toronto became the first team to snag a prep infielder in last year’s draft when they selected Groshans with the 12th overall selection. A product of Magnolia High School in Magnolia, Texas; the two sides came to an agreement on a deal worth $3.4 million, roughly $800,000 below the recommended slot bonus. Originally committed to play baseball at the University of Kansas with his older brother Jaxx, Groshans looked comfortable at the plate during his debut in the Gulf Coast League; he batted an impressive .331/.390/.500 with 12 doubles and four homeruns in 37 games. He struggled during his 11-game cameo in the Appalachian League, hitting .182/.229/.273.

Analysis: A lean prospect who’s likely going to fill out in the coming years, which could ultimately push him to the hot corner permanently, Groshans looks fluid in the field, showing smooth reflexes. The 6-foot-3, 178-pound infield has a short, compact swing at the plate with natural loft that should allow him to his 20 to 25 homeruns during his peak. And he didn’t show any major red flags during his debut, including during his stumble in the Appalachian League.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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8. Alejandro Kirk, C

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50/55 55 30 45/50 60

Background: Signed out of Mexico in late September, 2016. Kirk made a brief foray into the Gulf Coast League two years ago, appearing in just one game, earning just three plate appearances. Largely an unknown commodity before the start of the year, Kirk opened quite a few eyes by morphing into the second coming of Babe Ruth. In 58 games with Bluefield in the Appalachian League, the bulky backstop slugged .354/.443/.558 with 10 doubles, one triple, and 10 homeruns, tied for the third best total in the league. According to Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, Kirk’s overall production topped the league average mark by an impressively healthy 60% and 58%, respectively.

Analysis: Perhaps the most impressive part of Kirk’s showing last season: he finished with an exceptional 21-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Simply put, the 5-foot-9, 220-pound backstop was an unstoppable force at the plate, showcasing an impressive hit tool, above-average power, and elite bat control/patience. Plus, he was solid behind the dish as well. With respect to his production, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016, here’s the list of 19-year-old hitters that posted at least a 150 wRC+ in the Appalachian League (min. 200 PA): Oswaldo Arcia, Eddie Rosario, Jose Altuve, and Max Kepler.

For those counting at home, here are the aforementioned quartet’s career wRC+ totals in the big leagues: 96 (Arcia), 105 (Rosario), 126 (Altuve), and 94 (Kepler). There’s a lot to like by Kirk. And he’s poised to be one of the biggest risers in 2019.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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Hit Power SB Field Overall 45/50 50 55 55/60 55+

Background: For a brief time Toronto’s Class AA affiliate, the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, sported arguably the most lethal trio of any minor league lineup with Biggio, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. providing more than enough wallop. Biggio, the son of Hall Famer Craig Biggio, was a mid-round pick out of Notre Dame after a strong junior campaign in 2016. The 162nd overall player chosen that year, the lefty-swinging prospect turned in a solid debut, hitting .273/.371/.349 in 62 games. His production stumbled as the organization aggressively pushed him up to High Class A in 2017. But he came out swinging a hot stick as he moved in the Eastern League last season. In a career best 132 games, Biggio batted a saber-friendly .252/.388/.499 with 23 doubles, five triples, and 26 homeruns to go along with 20 stolen bases (in 28 attempts). His production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 45% and 36%, respectively.

Analysis: Taking a page out of his old man’s book. Cavan’s development lurched forward by leaps and bounds during his third professional season. A jack-of-all-trades on the defensive spectrum, Biggio spent significant time at first, second, and third bases as well as moonlighting in both corner outfield positions last season. And here’s the kicker: he’s a plus defender at second, average or tick better at the hot corner; and above-average in the outfield. The power surge last season is new. But he now profiles as a legitimate 20/20 threat. Throw in some elite patience at the plate, and Biggio’s – quietly – become an interesting prospect. Toronto’s seemingly grooming him as a super-sub. But there’s definite starting caliber potential here. Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 23-year-old hitters to post a 140 to 150 wRC+ with a walk rate of at least 15% in the Eastern League (min. 350 PA): Jed Lowrie and Cavan Biggio. Lowrie, by the way, owns a career 106 wRC+ in 1,109 big league games.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019/2020

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Hit Power SB Field Overall 45 55 60 60+ 55+

Background: A solid find in the fourth round out of the University of Maryland two years ago. Smith, the 129th player chosen that year, looked like the second coming of Ruth in his 46-game cameo in the Midwest League last season, hitting a scorching .355/.407/.639 with 34 extra-base hits. And the 6-foot-1, 188-pound infielder continued to impress after his promotion up to High Class A as well, batting .274/.332/.468. Smith finished his sophomore professional season with an aggregate .302/.358/.528 triple-slash line, belting out 31 doubles, six triples, and 25 homeruns. The former Terrapin also swiped 29 stolen bases in 35 total attempts.

Analysis: Just for fun, here’s the list of players to slug at least 30 doubles, five triples, and 25 homeruns with 25 or more stolen bases in the minor leagues last season: Corey Ray and Kevin Smith.

Prior to the 2017 draft, here’s what I wrote about Smith:

“The production itself isn’t necessarily noteworthy: he’s never batted above .273 during his tenure with the Terrapins; his once promising patience at the plate has dwindled down to red flag territory; and his strikeout rates/contact skills are questionable – at best. But in a draft class lacking a whole lot of offensive depth at the collegiate level, Smith could hear his name called between rounds two and three.

The power – as well as the likelihood that he stays at shortstop – are his redeeming qualities.

A team may convince themselves that they might be able to unlock the plate discipline he showcased as a true freshman – he walked in 10% of his plate appearances and fanned just 11.9% of the time – but he hasn’t shown anything near that level since then. At his peak, Smith looks like .250/.290/.400-type hitter. Throw in some solid defense and he has the makings of a potential super-sub and/or starter on a non-contending team.”

A year later and the analysis – more or less – remains spot on. Smith is showing above-average power, especially for a middle infielder, with plus-defense at shortstop. Toronto hasn’t been able to tap into his previous patient ways at the plate. But there’s a lot to like about a shortstop who can pick it and slug 20 or 25 homeruns – even if the hit tool is a bit below-average. He’s quietly one of the better shortstop prospects in the minor leagues right now.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.