Even as the BLS and DOL would like us to believe that the unemployment picture is getting better, we present a chart comparing the initial and continued claims as presented by the Dept. of Labor and compare these to actual government outlays. Even as the two combined series have been declining (offset by increasing much discussed EUCs), the most recent Unemployment Insurance Benefit outlay reported by the Treasury (as of March 30 - there is still one more day of data for March), just hit an all time record high of $15.4 billion.What this means is that in March the average paycheck from Uncle Sam for sitting dong nothing, surged to an all time high of $1,447/month.

Fair enough, the spike may be due to a surge in EUCs one may say. Well, here is a chart of the reported EUCs added to the disclosed Initial and Continued claims:

Indeed, even the worst case reported picture of America's jobless seems to have plataued in the upper 10 million range, after hitting a record of 11.1 million in late January.

So what happens when one divides the total population collecting benefits (I.C.+C.C.+EUC) by the actual UST outlays? We get a very curious chart:

It appears that in March either the government decided to payout an additional roughly 20% per unemployment paycheck, or once again, there is a shadow population of beneficiaries, which are not caught in any of the standard cohorts. Keep in mind that the average monthly paycheck has traditionally been indicated as being about $1,000.

What are we missing here?