ASSOCIATED PRESS/Ted S. Warren Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D-Wash.), center, greets Muslim constituents on March 21. As Muslim political engagement has grown, politicians have shown greater interest in outreach.

Muslim voter turnout in four key swing states jumped 25 percentage points from the 2014 to the 2018 midterm elections, according to a new study released by the Muslim political advocacy group Emgage. Emgage, which works to educate, register and mobilize Muslim American voters, crunched the numbers in Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Virginia. The four states, with significant Muslim populations, also happen to be key battlegrounds in presidential and congressional elections. Emgage hopes the findings show that politicians in both parties can no longer afford not to reach out to Muslim Americans and engage them on issues of particular importance to them. “This is a community that has not engaged politically in the past and has been taken for granted by both political parties,” said Wa’el Alzayat, CEO of Emgage. “We’re seeing now an undeniable trend, and the trend is moving up. Muslims are voting. They’re going to be significant politically.” On a new landing page on the organization’s website, users can find data and infographics showing the uptick in Muslim turnout in each of the key states Emgage looked at.

Had Muslims voted in 2016 at the rate that they voted in 2018, most likely that state would not have gone to Trump. Wael Alzayat, Emgage

In Florida, 53% of registered Muslim voters turned out to vote in the 2018 midterm elections ― a 22 percentage point increase from 2014. In Ohio, 48% of registered Muslim voters participated ― a 29 percentage point increase. In Virginia, 60% of registered Muslim voters participated ― a 31 percentage point increase. And in Michigan, 50% of registered Muslim voters participated ― a 19 percentage point increase. In total, across the four swing states, Muslim turnout jumped from about 130,000 votes to over 285,000 from 2014 to 2018. In close congressional races that often come down to just a few hundred votes, the data suggest that a modest change in Muslim turnout could make the difference in a race. Donald Trump’s razor-thin margin of victory in Muslim-heavy Michigan in 2016 also indicates that Muslim voters could play a key role in the outcome of the 2020 election. In Michigan’s Wayne County, home to the Muslim hubs of Dearborn and Hamtramck in the metropolitan Detroit area, Muslim turnout jumped from about 18,000 people in 2014 to about 32,000 people in 2018. “Had Muslims voted in 2016 at the rate that they voted in 2018, most likely that state would not have gone to Trump,” Alzayat said. To arrive at its findings, Emgage developed an algorithm that matches names on voter files commonly associated with Muslims and applied it to voter data it purchased from the progressive data trust Catalist. The nonprofit acknowledges that the formula likely omits many voters without noticeably Muslim names, and may over-count people with Muslim names who do not identify as Muslims. Over the years, though, as it fine-tunes its database through direct voter contact, it has improved the accuracy of its information.

ASSOCIATED PRESS/J. Scott Applewhite Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), one of the first two Muslim women in Congress, hails from Wayne County, Michigan, which is home to a potentially pivotal bloc of Muslim voters.