Survey of 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Voters in Colorado

This is a summary of a voter opinion survey of 500 Democratic and Unaffiliated voters who have voted or are likely to vote in the 2020 Colorado Democratic Presidential Primary election. The interviews were conducted February 24th and 25th, 2020. The interviews were conducted using live interviewers calling landline and cell phone sample. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval. The survey results were slightly weighted to reflect the demographics of past Democratic primary elections in Colorado. Key Findings: Senator Bernie Sanders currently leads the field in Colorado’s Democratic Presidential Primary with 27% support followed by Senator Elizabeth Warren at 15%, former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 12%, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg at 11% and former Vice President Joe Biden at 11%. Senator Amy Klobuchar has 6% support, 3% are supporting some other candidate and 15% percent of voters are undecided or refused.

When asked whether it is more important to nominate someone who can defeat President Trump or to choose someone who shares their values and personal beliefs, a clear majority of 57% believes that it is most important to choose a candidate who can win in November. Only 36% prioritize shared values and personal beliefs, though interestingly a candidate’s values are more important for a majority of voters age 18-44.

Ballot Test Our survey finds that one week out from Election Day, Senator Bernie Sanders has opened up a 12-point lead over his closest opponent, Senator Elizabeth Warren, 27% to 15% respectively. Senator Warren leads a tight group in the battle for second place, which also includes former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (12%), former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (11%) and former Vice President Joe Biden (11%). Senator Amy Klobuchar has 6% support, billionaire activist Tom Steyer and Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard are each at 1%, and 15% of voters are still undecided or refused to answer. Senator Sanders holds a double-digit lead among several major voter subgroups, including a substantial 29-point lead among voters 18-44 and a 21-point lead among voters who describe themselves as very liberal. His lead is smaller among women (5 points) and among those who describe themselves as only somewhat liberal (8 points). Among self-described moderates, his 18% is virtually tied with Buttigieg and Bloomberg each at 17%. The only major subgroup where Sanders is trailing is among voters 65 and older, where his 15% is behind both Bloomberg (19%) and Biden (18%). Senator Warren’s current second-place standing appears to be driven largely by the fact that she is the only candidate even remotely close to Sanders among very liberal voters (she is at 24%) and voters age 18-44 (20%), and she does well enough among most other subgroups.

Defeating President Trump Versus Shared Values

Respondents were also asked to evaluate which is more important as they consider the candidates: Someone who can defeat President Trump or someone who shares their values and personal beliefs. A clear majority of 57% believes that it is most important to choose a candidate who can win in November, while 36% prioritize shared values and personal beliefs. The importance of defeating President Trump is highest among voters over age 45, self-described moderate voters, women and Democratic voters (as opposed to Unaffiliated voters).

Interestingly, voters age 18-44 are the one group where a majority of voters say that shared values and personal beliefs are more important than defeating President Trump. This data point combined with the fact that nearly 70% of these voters are supporting either Senator Sanders or Senator Warren suggests that those two candidates are clearly more in line with their values than the more moderate candidates.

Conclusion

The survey finds a plurality of 27% of voters supporting Bernie Sanders, with no other candidate above 20%. Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Michael Bloomberg and Joe Biden are all within the margin of error of the crucial 15% viability threshold for delegates.

This means that the decisions made by the 13% of voters who are currently undecided will be pivotal in determining the final outcome. Right now, the 12-point lead for Sanders means that he is the only candidate who can feel optimistic about his chances in Colorado on Super Tuesday.

Survey Methodology

This survey was paid for by Magellan Strategies, and was conducted by live dialing landline and cell phone sample. The phone sample used for this survey was randomly drawn from a state of Colorado voter file. The survey response data was weighted to reflect the demographics of past Democrat primary elections in Colorado. The interviews were conducted on February 24th and 25th, 2019. Three attempts were made to interview each household in the sample. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval.