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The Teranet data provides insight into markets where domestic and foreign speculators were often blamed for driving prices out of reach for ordinary buyers. The paired sales rate did spike in Vancouver’s condo market in March 2016, when about 5 per cent of transactions were resales made within one year. Prices in the city were rising an average of 5 per cent per month at the time, prompting the province to crack down by introducing a 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers.

Looking at full-year data, the share of flipped condos never exceeded 5 per cent in the past decade. That suggests few people were looking to make a quick buck in a city where prices almost doubled in 10 years.

Supply and Demand

Instead, it’s more likely that fundamentals such as weak growth in housing supply and rising populations that create new demand caused Vancouver’s rapid price gains, not speculators.

One reason speculation has been modest could be that transaction costs — like lawyers, broker fees and taxes — are blunting the potential for easy profits from big price gains.

Photo by Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press files

This year’s housing slowdown is a major reason why flipping a condo has become even less attractive, said Steve Saretsky, a realtor who runs the Vancity Condo Guide blog. Vancouver apartment prices have fallen 3.1 per cent over the last three months, according to the city’s real estate board. “As soon as they stop rising you get into a number of issues,” Saretsky said in a phone interview. “Are you really going to try to flip it in a down market? There’s no profit to be made.”