Obama has 3 speeches ready--RNC hires Ron Paul press secretary--NBC poll: New Hampshire tied--So is Wisconsin GOP primary--Sabato team names 15 House race toss-ups

POLITICO’s Morning Score:

By James Hohmann ( [email protected] ; Twitter: @jameshohmann)


JUDGMENT DAY – THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM: The Supreme Court’s decision on the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act is expected shortly after 10.

THREE SPEECHES: “The president has three separate speeches prepared in anticipation of the ruling on his signature legislative achievement,” the Wall Street Journal’s Carol Lee reports. “One of the speeches addresses a complete overturn of the law, while another is crafted as if the court strikes down the law’s individual mandate but upholds other provisions. The third speech, for if the court upholds the entire law, is more celebratory…No matter the ruling, the White House is expected to continue highlighting provisions of the legislation that are more popular than the overall law, such as the requirements that insurance companies cover people with pre-existing conditions or allow parents to keep their children on their plans until they are 26 years old…It’s unclear when Mr. Obama will comment on the decision.” http://on.wsj.com/LEXStt

FREE ADVICE FROM GRETA VAN SUSTEREN: “If you are cheating on a spouse, enjoying a too cozy relationship with someone, have a tax problem, double dipping in your campaign fund or anything else that is politically explosive and soon to get out and torpedo your career … go public with it … at exactly 10 am… We just don’t have time for it.” http://bit.ly/LvwlEC

Scroll down for more on health care, but first…

RNC BEEFS UP PRESS SHOP, HIRES RON PAUL’S SPOKESMAN: Gary Howard, communications director for Ron Paul's presidential campaign, joins the Republican National Committee as Special Projects Director. He’s also been Rand Paul’s press secretary and worked for Louisiana Sen. David Vitter. Lauren Zelt Tate joins the RNC as Deputy Press Secretary for Television. A Georgetown University graduate, she previously worked as a guest booker for dayside programming and special election coverage at the FOX News Channel.

FIRST IN SCORE – NEW REHBERG AD HIGHLIGHTS CONSTITUENT SERVICE: A Montana family praises Republican Senate candidate Denny Rehberg for helping them bring their adopted daughter home to the United States. "Five years ago, we legally adopted our daughter in Nepal, but our own embassy falsely accused us of visa fraud,” says Pete Schmieding of Bozeman at the top of a 30-second spot. “And they weren't going to let us bring Palden home," continues the mother, Karen. “We needed help, so I called Denny Rehberg. He didn't know us — but he met us on Thanksgiving Day," Pete continues. "He stood by us for nine months as we fought the government, and won. Now, with Denny's help, we're just a typical Montana family." A source says it’s a $60,000 television buy. This ad is effective because it capitalizes on the widespread distrust of federal power out West. Here’s a 2007 news story about the ordeal: http://bit.ly/KOu0cL. Watch: http://bit.ly/MDdjOe.

WISCONSIN SNEAK PEEK – BALDWIN INTERNAL SHOWS DEAD HEAT IN GOP PRIMARY: Democratic Senate candidate Tammy Baldwin’s campaign is releasing a poll that shows Tommy Thompson and Eric Hovde essentially tied in the Republican Senate race at 26-27, with 26 percent not sure. Mark Neumann and Jeff Fitzgerald are both teetering on the edge of double digits. The poll was conducted by the Feldman Group from June 19-21, with a margin of error of 4.5 percent. The goal is to show that Thompson is not the prohibitive frontrunner. Read the one-page memo: http://bit.ly/M7TLFX.

As Scott Brown shows up for a one-man debate, the New Hampshire legislature overturns a voter ID veto and Republicans consider fundraising in Israel, here’s POLITICO’s Morning Score: your daily guide to the permanent campaign.

WHAT ROMNEY IS UP TO: The governor is in DC this morning and heads to New York City for a 6 p.m. fundraiser at the Pierre Hotel. Also, Romney had a reception/fundraiser last night at a Georgetown penthouse.

WHAT OBAMA IS UP TO: The White House schedule currently does not include a public statement, but there is certainly time in the day to add one. At 1:35, the President travels to Walter Reed in Bethesda for a closed-press visit with wounded service members. Tomorrow he’ll visit Colorado to tour an area ravaged by the wildfires: http://politi.co/MqILCX.

WHAT BIDEN IS UP TO: He’s back from Iowa in time for the Presidential Daily Briefing in the Oval Office. This afternoon he’s lunching privately with Obama. And later he’ll sit in on an Obama meeting with Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in the Oval.

POLITICO LIVESTREAM AT 2 P.M.: Editor-in-Chief John Harris and Mike Allen break down the SCOTUS decision live from 2-3 p.m. this afternoon. They’ll get live updates from the Court and the Hill by our reporters and a few members, including Chris Van Hollen and Michael Burgess. Watch live: http://politi.co/v8OIbK. Locally, I will be on News Channel 8 live from 10-11 a.m. discussing the ruling along with former NRCC Chairman Tom Davis.

DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION: 131.



LATEST POLLING—

NBC/MARIST finds three states neck-and-neck –

MICHIGAN: Obama, 47; Romney, 43.

NORTH CAROLINA: Obama, 46; Romney, 44.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama, 45; Romney, 45. Story (includes links to crosstabs for all three states): http://on.msnbc.com/MViT0t.

OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY of VIRGINIA: Obama, 49; Romney, 42. 66% said Obama’s a liberal. 71% said Romney is a conservative. The Virginian-Pilot: http://bit.ly/NF68oi.

TELEMUNDO/NBC/WSJ of REGISTERED HISPANIC VOTERS: Obama, 66; Romney, 26. More on the differences between this sample and the rest of the country: http://on.msnbc.com/MVELHt.

PPP of MASSACHUSETTS: Obama, 55; Romney, 39. http://bit.ly/Oz4oTz

TIP on customizing “jobs” versus “economy” messaging from Gallup: “Different groups put different emphases on the two, with middle- and upper-income Americans, young and middle-aged adults, whites, and Hispanics more likely to mention the economy in general [as their top concern], and blacks, low-income adults, and seniors putting more emphasis on jobs.” http://bit.ly/MC779o

MORE ON THE IMPENDING HEALTH CARE DECISION –

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES: “Don’t expect the justices to announce the health-care ruling as soon as they take the bench at 10 a.m.,” the Journal’s Brent Kendall notes. “The court has three cases left to decide and it will very likely announce the other two decisions first…So we may have to wait 10 to 15 minutes to learn the fate of the Affordable Care Act.” http://on.wsj.com/LEXw68

POTUS FINDS OUT AT THE SAME TIME WE DO: “We turn on televisions and radios and computers and watch SCOTUSblog," Jay Carney told reporters yesterday. http://trib.in/MD1esy

ROMNEY LAUDED MANDATE AS “ESSENTIAL” IN 2006: American Bridge, the liberal Super PAC, brackets the decision by posting a previously uncirculated video of Romney on March 6, 2006, talking about Romneycare. "With regards to the individual mandate, the individual responsibility program that I proposed, I was very pleased that the compromise between the two houses includes the personal responsibility mandate,” he said then. “That is essential for bringing the health care costs down for everyone and getting everyone the health insurance they need.” Watch the 30-second clips: http://bit.ly/L3IlTT.

RISING CONFIDENCE IN MEDICAL SYSTEM: “Forty-one percent of Americans tell Gallup they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the U.S. medical system. Americans' confidence has been a bit higher since the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act passed in 2010, and is much higher than the 2007 low point (of 31%).” http://bit.ly/MrPUmF

THREE GOOD CURTAIN-RAISERS:

POLITICO OUTLINES WIN-LOSE SCENARIOS: Josh Gerstein has a smart story leading our site on the best and worst case scenarios for Romney, Obama, Boehner, Pelosi, Reid, Jeff Toobin, the insurance industry, Donald Verrilli, etc. “Predicting the outcome is a guessing game, and a perilous one. But every Washington player worth his or her salt has a game plan for all possible scenarios.” Read: http://bit.ly/MZqRpD.

NY TIMES—“FUTURE OF AGING COURT RAISES STAKES OF PRESIDENTIAL VOTE”: Sheryl Stolberg notes that the Court is “among the oldest courts since the New Deal era” and says it will surely be an election issue. “The winner of the race for president will inherit a group of justices who frequently split 5 to 4 along ideological lines. That suggests that the next president could have a powerful impact if he gets to replace a justice of the opposing side.” http://nyti.ms/LEYyPn

BOSTON GLOBE—“RULING MAY REDEFINE REACHES OF FEDERAL POWER”: “At the heart of the complex case: Does Congress have the power, under the Constitution’s interstate commerce clause, to require that most individuals obtain insurance coverage or pay a penalty? The question — examined over three days of oral arguments in March and privately deliberated by the nine justices — goes to the crux of intensifying debate about the role of government in the everyday lives of Americans, particularly concerning their purchasing decisions.” Tracy Jan: http://b.globe.com/LF3AeY.



HOUSE VOTING TO HOLD HOLDER IN CONTEMPT TODAY –

BLACK LAWMAKERS PLAN WALKOUT: The Congressional Black Caucus plans to walk off the House floor during tomorrow’s votes, Jon Allen reports. “CBC members are hoping to garner support for their move from members of other minority and liberal groups, including Hispanics, Asians and the Congressional Progressive Caucus.” http://politi.co/LPrkYo

AT LEAST FOUR DEMS WILL VOTE AGAINST HOLDER: Democratic Reps. John Barrow (Ga.), Collin Peterson (Minn.), Nick Rahall (W.Va.) and Jim Matheson (Utah). The Hill: http://bit.ly/Luao8T.



ROMNEY’S BAIN—

POST REFUSES TO RETRACT OUTSOURCING STORY: “The Washington Post will not retract their June 21 report about Bain Capital’s investments in firms that specialized in outsourcing American jobs,” Dylan Byers reports. "We are very confident in our reporting," Washington Post spokesperson Kris Coratti told him after a meeting between the Post's executive editor Marcus Brauchli and Romney campaign representatives, who had come to ask for a retraction. The Romney campaign would not discuss the meeting on the record. The Romney campaign prepared this 10-slide PowerPoint for their meeting: http://bit.ly/M651m1. The Obama campaign responded to the kerfuffle with this three-page memo defending the story: http://bit.ly/LQp3fM.

ROMNEY CAMP PULLS GST STEEL VIDEO: “The Romney campaign has prepared an approximately two-minute video defending Bain Capital's involvement in the firm GST Steel, which Democrats have attacked as an example of the private equity firm's risky business dealings under Mitt Romney,” Alex Burns reports. “It features B.C. Huselton, a former vice president at the company, defending Bain's investment in GST Steel as more helpful than hurtful.” After the item posted, the Romney campaign removed the video from YouTube. But we were able to save it and post it on our site here: http://politi.co/LF0bwt.



ROMNEY TALKERS—

RIFT ON FOREIGN POLICY TEAM OVER HOW TO RESPOND TO CHEN IMBROGLIO: “It seemed a ripe opportunity for Mitt Romney: The crisis that unfolded last month over the Chinese dissident Chen Guangcheng was a way to hammer President Obama as weak on human rights and unwilling to be assertive with China,” Rich Oppel writes in today’s New York Times. “Inside the campaign, though, sharp differences emerged among staff members and foreign policy advisers as the crisis deepened and Mr. Chen left the protection of the United States Embassy in Beijing. Some advisers cautioned of the dangers of plunging too quickly into the middle of a fast-moving diplomatic crisis and wanted Mr. Romney to have a political margin of safety in case of a sudden breakthrough…In the end, Mr. Romney opted for a hard line.”

A WINDOW INTO HOW MITT MIGHT GOVERN: “It was tougher than what a number of foreign policy advisers wanted, said one Republican close to the campaign, who cited advisers’ concerns ‘about getting ahead of the facts and appearing nonpresidential’ as well as having their recommendations sent ‘through a political filter’ at campaign headquarters that they do not understand. BUT in a nod to advisers’ fears that the campaign might not have had a full picture of what was happening in Beijing, Mr. Romney hedged, emphasizing four times in his 90-second statement that his condemnation was predicated on the assumption that reports from China were accurate.” http://nyti.ms/Lvywb0

ROLLING OUT NEW STUMP LANGUAGE – MITT PROMISES “A FAIR SHOT” FOR MIDDLE CLASS: Ginger Gibson flags a new line in the governor’s stump speech, rolled out yesterday afternoon in Sterling. “If it ever came to a time, when we had a president that did not give a fair shot to the middle class people of America, it's this president,” he said at the end of an extended callback with the crowd. “And, because of this, we're going to get a president who will give a fair shot to the American people.”

GOP MIGHT SEND SURROGATE TO ISRAEL FUNDRAISER: “Obama’s campaign has put on fundraising events in London, Zurich and Geneva, and next on the calendar is a July 4 event in Paris featuring Obama’s senior adviser and close friend Valerie Jarrett,” Dan Hirschhorn reports in The Daily. “Meanwhile, two of Mitt Romney’s sons headlined a fundraiser last month in Hong Kong, while the candidate himself will attend his second London fundraiser next month during the Olympic Games. And multiple Republican officials told The Daily they’re exploring the possibility of an event in Israel with a high-level surrogate — something that would appear to be a first in American politics.” http://bit.ly/OBRHaS



BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING—THE PATH TO 270:

CHICAGO RESERVES $5.5 MILLION IN AD TIME DURING THE OLYMPICS: This is for NBC and four cable affiliates, according to the New York Times. An NBC executive is advising both campaigns they should stay POSITIVE in the spots: http://nyti.ms/NF9qIj.

NEW HAMPSHIRE LEGISLATURE OVERRIDES VOTER ID VETO: “An override of a medical marijuana veto failed by three votes yesterday, but soon businesses can claim tax credits for donating to private school scholarships and voters will need photo identification to cast a ballot,” the Concord Monitor’s Annmarie Timmins reports. “Lawmakers met for a final time yesterday to take up 13 of Gov. John Lynch's vetoes. They overrode six of them, including not only bills on voter identification and education tax credits, but also legislation banning late-term abortions and reforming medical malpractice litigation.” http://bit.ly/OxPUlT

GIULIANI TO NEVADA AS ROMNEY SURROGATE: “On Friday, [Rudy] Giuliani will visit the ‘Team Nevada’ office where the Republican National Committee and the Romney campaign are working together [to bypass the state party],” per the Las Vegas Review Journal. “Acting as a campaign surrogate, Giuliani is expected to talk up Romney's business credentials and take a swipe or two at President Barack Obama's efforts to revive the economy.” LVRJ: http://bit.ly/MBc8S8. Good post by UNLV political scientist David Damore on the demographics of the “three Nevadas”: http://bit.ly/LQoBhr.

BOTH CAMPAIGNS FOCUS ON EASTERN IOWA: “If the past two weeks are any indication, the presidential race in Iowa will be a battle over communities like this one: working-class towns east of Des Moines, where economic arguments resonate and undecided voters are plentiful,” the Register’s Jason Noble writes. “In just the past 10 days…Biden blitzed Waterloo, Independence, Manchester, Clinton and Davenport in his two-day trip this week, leveling harsh criticisms at Romney and playing up his working-class roots all along the way. Romney, meanwhile, held a rally in Davenport after a Mississippi River cruise with supporters here last week to make the case that Obama is ill-equipped to rejuvenate a slow-recovering economy.” http://dmreg.co/OBDxGL



VEEPSTAKES—

BOB MCDONNELL appeared with Romney unexpectedly in Sterling, Virginia, last night. Earlier in the day, he told reporters in Richmond that his threat to fire the University of Virginia governing board helped get Teresa Sullivan her job back: http://wapo.st/OBG1Vj.

JOHN THUNE has not called for Eric Holder’s resignation, even though Romney, Marco Rubio and Bobby Jindal have: http://bit.ly/NF323N.

CHRIS CHRISTIE may veto a teacher tenure bill that passed both the House and Senate unanimously because it codifies seniority: http://bit.ly/OxQwrF.

MISSOURI SENATE SNEAK PEEK – STATE GOP MOCKS MCCASKILL: The MOGOP will be sending a letter to the Obama campaign on behalf of Claire McCaskill later this morning. It’s a lighthearted way of highlighting the “frustration” that the endangered freshman senator expressed on Tuesday about coverage of her decision to skip the Democratic National Convention. She said she would be glad to campaign and appear with Obama in Missouri. The GOP wants to make sure voters in Missouri, a state Obama is nearly certain to lose handily, know that. “Claire McCaskill is waiting by the phone. Please make sure you tell Barack to call her back,” Lloyd Smith, the state party’s ED, says tongue-in-cheek to Jim Messina. Read his 2-page letter: http://bit.ly/NQCkJ4.

NEW MEXICO SENATE – HEATHER WILSON TO SKIP RNC: “New Mexico Republican Senate nominee Heather Wilson will not attend the Republican National Convention in Tampa later this summer, her spokesman tells Hotline On Call,” which confirmed that Martin Heinrich will go to the DNC. “Wilson's not the only competitive Republican Senate candidate skipping the Tampa gathering. Linda Lingle, the presumptive nominee in Hawaii, and Rep. Denny Rehberg, the Montana GOP nominee, will also be absent from the event.” http://bit.ly/KFe4oy

MASSACHUSETTS SENATE – BROWN APPEARS SOLO AT FIRST “DEBATE”: “Senator Scott Brown was a guest on NightSide with Dan Rea on WBZ NewsRadio Wednesday night. It was supposed to be the first debate in the race for Senate in Massachusetts, except only one candidate showed up. Elizabeth Warren did not attend because Brown turned down a debate hosted by Vicki Kennedy,” the local CBS Boston affiliate reports. “Brown took questions from listeners and spoke with Rea about a number of issues, including the contempt of Congress vote on Attorney General Eric Holder. Brown says Holder should resign, ‘Based on everything that happened, the misleading of Congress, the fact that they haven’t produced the documents, the fact that there’s been a breach of trust.’” Scott Brown WILL go to the RNC, in case you were wondering. http://cbsloc.al/Qqb3gi

THE HOUSE MAP – SABATO CRYSTAL BALL NAMES 15 TOSS-UPS: “If we had to project the House right now, we'd say a net Democratic gain of less than 10 seats,” University of Virginia Center for Politics House editor Kyle Kondik writes. “One possible but highly unlikely outcome -- at least at this point -- is that the Democrats over perform and recapture the House majority by netting 25 or more House seats. And equally unlikely but also possible is this: The Republicans winning their biggest House majority since before the Great Depression.”

Democrat-held toss-ups: Illinois 12 (Rep. Jerry Costello retiring; 2008 Obama/McCain district performance: Obama 55, McCain 44); Pennsylvania 12 (Rep. Mark Critz; 2008 McCain 54, Obama 45); Rhode Island 1 (Rep. David Cicilline; 2008 Obama 67, McCain 32); Utah 4 (Rep. Jim Matheson; 2008 McCain 56, Obama 41);

Republican-held toss-ups: California 52 (Rep. Brian Bilbray; 2008 Obama 55, McCain 43); California 7 (Rep. Dan Lungren; 2008 Obama 51, McCain 46) & 26 (Rep. Elton Gallegly retiring; 2008 Obama 56, McCain 41); Minnesota 8 (Rep. Chip Cravaack; 2008 Obama 53, McCain 45); New Hampshire 1 (Rep. Frank Guinta; 2008 Obama 53, McCain 46) & 2 (Rep. Charlie Bass; 2008 Obama 56, McCain 43); Nevada 3 (Rep. Joe Heck; 2008 Obama 54, McCain 45); New York 18 (Rep. Nan Hayworth; Obama 52, McCain 47) & 19 (Rep. Chris Gibson; 2008 Obama 53, McCain 45); Ohio 16 (Rep. Jim Renacci [R] running against Rep. Betty Sutton [D]; 2008 McCain 51, Obama 47); Texas 23 (Rep. Francisco "Quico" Canseco running for reelection; 2008 Obama 50, McCain 49). http://bit.ly/KEmpIS

SABATO is moving the governor’s race in Montana to a toss-up and North Carolina to likely Republican. Both were previously lean Republicans.

NEW YORK HOUSE – RANGEL MARGIN OF VICTORY SHRINKING: “Rep. Charles Rangel was declared the winner [Tuesday night] in his Democratic primary — and state Sen. Adriano Espaillat conceded — but the veteran congressman's margin of victory is shrinking as the results continue to be counted,” per Charlie Mahtesian. “With 94 percent of precincts reporting, Rangel’s lead over Espaillat is now 44 percent to 41 percent, with about 1,000 votes separating the top two candidates. Espaillat didn’t take back his concession Wednesday afternoon, but he did issue a statement suggesting the race might not be settled.” http://politi.co/KEq8q6



LIGHTER CLICKS –

THE RNC beat the DNC 8-7 in their annual softball game last night, making it the seventh year in a row. Both Reince Priebus and Debbie Wasserman Schultz were on hand. Here’s a photo emailed from a reader: http://bit.ly/MZBAAo.

A GAY NEW JERSEY COUPLE will hire a lawyer after discovering that one of their engagement photos was used in attack ads against two Republicans who support civil unions. Both GOP incumbents lost in Tuesday’s primary election. The Denver Post has the original image and the mailers it was superimposed into: http://bit.ly/LF2nnJ.

JON STEWART called Chris Christie an ideological hypocrite for threatening to veto a marijuana decriminalization bill because it goes against federal drug policy: http://gaw.kr/L3Gizi.

STEPHEN COLBERT pondered why Republicans are outraising Democrats this year on his show last night and joked about ways Obama could catch up: http://gaw.kr/OxLX0w.

ANN and MICHELLE each offered cookie recipes to Family Circle magazine: http://bit.ly/M5Y4l0.

POTUS played nice at last night’s picnic. A photo gallery includes one of Eric Holder mingling (so awkward): http://politi.co/MXQnYI.

JOE BIDEN’s favorite adjective is “God-awful.” CNN finds a bunch of example of him using the catchphrase: http://bit.ly/LCZr9p.

THE SENATE has killed the summer’s Seersucker Thursday tradition, and Dana Milbank is not happy about it: http://wapo.st/MBbnbS.

ROMNEY SUPER FAN JIM WILSON got a pickup truck to replace the one that burst into flames last week. “The campaign covered the $13,900 cost of the truck, a 2003 Chevy Silverado that is such a vast improvement over Mr. Wilson’s previous vehicle, he said in an interview, ‘that I feel guilty smoking in it. It’s so clean I felt I had to take my shoes off before getting in,’” according to the Times’ Michael Barbaro. “When Mr. Romney officially presented Mr. Wilson with the truck Tuesday evening, he also handed over a fire extinguisher. ‘Look what I got for you, Wilson,’ Mr. Romney said. ‘Just in case!’ Mr. Wilson, hoisting the extinguisher over his head, declared: ‘That’s the trophy! We’re safe at last.’” Blog item: http://nyti.ms/N62aDV. Photo of Romney in the new truck: http://bit.ly/KFeRWt.

CODA – QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I never say never.” – Herman Cain on whether he might run for president again in 2016 during an interview with ABC’s Jon Karl http://yhoo.it/MWFmdK

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