Heisman a 'very close race' for second behind Jameis Winston

Paul Myerberg | USA TODAY Sports

In a rare Heisman Trophy occurrence, the question isn't who will win the trophy this weekend – but rather by how wide a margin.

Saturday night's Heisman ceremony is expected to serve as a coronation of sorts for Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston, who stands as the decided and overwhelming favorite among the six Heisman finalists.

For Winston's five fellow finalists — Alabama's AJ McCarron, Auburn's Tre Mason, Boston College's Andre Williams, Northern Illinois' Jordan Lynch and Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel — the competition is only for second place, not first.

"I think most observers agree that Jameis Winston is going to win this thing," said Kari Chisholm, a Portland-based political consultant who runs the Web site StiffArmTrophy.com, which has correctly predicted the last 11 Heisman winners. "The other guys are there in what appears to be a very close race for second place."

Not since 2010, when Auburn quarterback Cam Newton won by a significant margin over Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, has the Heisman conversation been so devoid of any contest. In comparison, the past two Heisman Trophy recipients, Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel and Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III, won by a total of 323 and 280 points, respectively.

In the final USA TODAY Sports Heisman Survey, a straw poll consisting of more than two dozen Heisman voters, Winston was named first on 26 of 29 ballots. The only other finalist to earn a first-place vote was Auburn running back Tre Mason, who earned the top spot on the remaining three ballots.

Even though Mason made a late charge into the Heisman conversation, Winston could be headed for a win of historic proportions.

"At this point, it looks as if Jameis Winston is going to get around 87 to 90% of the maximum total points that he can score, which would put him at about the top three of all-time biggest winners," Chisholm said.

Former USC running back Reggie Bush holds the record for highest percentage of total points received in the Heisman voting. In 2005, Bush received 91.77% of the Heisman's total voting points – Bush's total of 2,541 divided by the total number of possible points. A year later, Ohio State quarterback Troy Smith received 91.63% of the total Heisman voting points.

One factor potentially obstructing Winston's chances at a Heisman landslide is the recent allegation — since dropped — of sexual battery stemming from an incident with a female student in December 2012. Although the State Attorney in Tallahassee opted to not pursue charges in the case, the allegations could serve as a reason for those hesitant to cast Winston their first-place vote.

In the USA TODAY Sports Heisman Survey, for instance, Winston was left entirely off of three ballots. Likewise at the popular trophy site HeismanPundit.com, where Winston was not listed on two of the 10 ballots completed by anonymous Heisman voters.

"I think that there are some people who sort of feel distaste about it, but I don't think it's a huge issue for people," said Chris Huston, the publisher of Heisman Pundit. "I think it's people who were probably less likely to vote for him anyway. Whatever reason they didn't want to vote for him, this sort of confirms it. There are going to be people in any situation who are just not going to vote for a guy, for whatever reason."

In one way, Winston's candidacy is similar to Newton's case in 2010. During his Heisman-winning season, Newton was embroiled in an NCAA investigation into his recruitment. While not found to have committed any NCAA violations, Newton was nonetheless left off of 144 of the 925 ballots cast.

"Every winner has been left off a ballot before," Huston said. "I think he will be left off of some. Maybe not as much as Newton was, but more than the average winner."