Donald Trump came out of the latest debate second-best, according to polls

Donald Trump seemed to lose Sunday night's debate with Hillary Clinton and early polls indicate that he stands to fall even further behind in the race for the White House.

A new poll from NBC and the Wall Street Journal shows Mrs Clinton leading Mr Trump 46% to 35% - an 11-point lead. Libertarian Gary Johnson got 9% of the vote and Jilly Stein of the Green Party received 2%.

When asked to choose between Mrs Clinton and Mr Trump head-to-head, 52% chose Clinton and 38% chose Trump.

This is one of the first polls in which fieldwork was undertaken entirely after the release of tapes in which Mr Trump brags about being able to grope women because of his fame.

A Morning Consult poll also showed Mrs Clinton with a healthy - though little-changed - lead after the video emerged.


Since the tapes were released, more than 50 prominent Republicans have withdrawn their support from Mr Trump and on Monday House Speaker Paul Ryan said he would no longer defend or campaign for the Republican presidential candidate.

The survey was also conducted before the debate between Mr Trump and Mrs Clinton on Sunday night.

Mrs Clinton was deemed to have won by 57% of viewers in a CNN poll, compared with 34% for Mr Trump, while a YouGov poll called it 47% to 42% in Mrs Clinton's favour.

The presidential debate in a minute

Still, the debate was a closer affair than their first meeting, in which a CNN poll showed 62% of viewers declared Mrs Clinton the victor over 27% for Mr Trump - the third widest margin ever in a CNN or Gallup post-debate poll dating back to 1984.

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So how much should you read into these polls?

Firstly, the usual disclaimer - a single poll can only tell you so much. It is worth waiting for more polls to come out before jumping to any strong conclusions.

The NBC/WSJ polls also usually show more favourable results for Mrs Clinton than other polls.

This is not to say that they are incorrect - but it would be more noteworthy if a poll which usually is more favourable to Mr Trump showed a similar gap.

Senior Republican abandons Trump after second debate

However, a new poll from Rasmussen - whose results are generally more favourable to Mr Trump - also showed Mrs Clinton up by seven percentage points even with the majority of interviews undertaken before the tapes were released.

There is a correlation between scores in post-debate polls and shifts in the polls further down the line, albeit with some considerable noise.

On average, the size of Mrs Clinton's victory in the CNN debate poll would suggest that, all else being equal, she may expect to gain a point or two in the polls.

In this race, however, all else is very rarely equal.

Given the tapes and - relatedly - the dissipating support for Mr Trump from the establishment within his own party, this was a debate that he really needed to win.

If the early indications prove accurate, he could be facing even more of an uphill battle.

But, as pundits have found time and again over the last year, you write Donald Trump off at your peril.