As you all know, there are striking upsets in the college football every year. While they are hard to predict, this is exactly what I am going to attempt to do right now.

When making these predictions, there were many key factors I considered. If the underdog team has experience on their roster or a coach with experience, it looks more likely to me that an upset can be pulled off. I also like to look at each team’s schedule. If the underdog is coming off of a bye, it makes things easier for an upset to be pulled off as there is more time to prepare for a game. If the favorite just played a big game or is playing one the following week, I think they could be overlooking their less favorable opponent, and thus could lose. Also just looking at the consistency of the favored team can be a good indicator. Ohio State is vastly talented, but they have garnered a reputation of having one stupid loss per year. If I see a team that has a propensity for giving games away, I will have much larger suspicions of them being the victims of an upset loss.

Without further ado, here are 10 games that I think have a very good chance of becoming upset and why I think they can happen. The games are in no particular order.

Fresno State over USC

August 31st, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

I do not think there is a single head coach in the country with a hotter seat right now than USC head coach Clay Helton. The feeling that Helton has underperformed at USC started when he failed to do very much with Sam Darnold at quarterback, and came to a head when the Trojans finished 5-7 in 2018, their first losing season since 2000. Fresno State won the Mountain West in 2018 by beating Boise State on their blue turf for the first time, and finished with a 12-2 record. Head coach Jeff Tedford is 22-6 with the Bulldogs after inheriting a team that finished 1-11 the season before he was hired. This rebuilding project has been quite impressive for the former California head coach to say the least.

While the hiring of Kliff Kingsbury at offensive coordinator sparked excitement for USC, it was dashed when he left that position and Graham Harrell was hired in his place. While Harrell was a fine hire, he clearly is a step below Kingsbury. USC will be adjusting to an Air Raid offense under Harrell, and I think that they might be a bit sloppy in their first game with it. Fresno State had a very strong defense in 2018, and they return six starters from it. Linebacker Mykal Walker is the lead contender for Defensive Player of the Year in the Mountain West and safety Juju Hughes was a playmaker last season. This defense could wreak havoc on an uncertain USC offense that still has quite a few question marks at offensive line. While Fresno State will trot out a new quarterback, I think USC’s defense is not quite good enough to exploit that and running back Ronnie Rivers will be a good security blanket. On a lesser note, I think nerves will be a thing for USC as the players will be well aware of the pressure this team is under. Also it should be noted that Fresno State’s roster is likely filled with players who were not recruited by USC and are resentful toward them because of it. They would love nothing more than to play the game of their lives at USC and show why they should have been recruited by them. I know it is a cliche that announcers always bring up, but there is definitely a nugget of truth there. Fresno State has been successful under Tedford, but they lack a win over a big time program (even though their win over Boise State on the snowy blue turf in the Mountain West Championship game was really cool to watch), something all G5 programs covet. I am sure that Fresno State players and coaches have eagerly awaited this game and want to prove themselves. I think USC is probably terrified to play this game and it will show. Of all the upsets I have listed, I think I feel the most confident about this one. Also if you are watching this game, be warned because Reggie Bush’s amazing run against Fresno State from their 2005 matchup will be shown approximately 7,000 times.

Northwestern over Ohio State

October 18th, Ryan Field

Over the last two seasons, Ohio State has absolutely tanked it in one of their games. In 2017, the Buckeyes fell to Iowa 55-24, and in 2018 they fell to Purdue 49-20. Neither of the teams they fell to were ranked, and Ohio State has lost just one other game the last two season besides the two I have just mentioned. I really do not see any reason that this pattern will not continue. Northwestern finished 2018 with a 9-5 record which saw them win their first division title since the Big 10 split into divisions and a Holiday Bowl victory.

Ohio State underwent a coaching change in the offseason as Urban Meyer retired, making way for offensive coordinator Ryan Day to take the coaching gig. While I think the hire was fine, Day has never been a head coach before. I believe Ohio State was trying to just play it safe with the hire. This team will not really be tested before this game. While Ohio State does have a bit going into this game, Northwestern does too. While I think he can see success at Ohio State, I worry about Justin Fields entering his first season as a starter and I think he will make many of the same mistakes young quarterbacks make. Northwestern was able to hang with Ohio State until late in the Big 10 Championship, and will not be afraid of them.

Under Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern has been known as a team with consistency. The Wildcats have reached nine wins in three of the last four seasons, and always seem to come along well late. While Ohio State has a great running back in JK Dobbins, Northwestern has seen success stopping the run. Linebacker Paddy Fisher might be the best player in the Big 10 at his position and will be tough to slow down. While Ohio State has a very talented secondary, it is still one with not as much experience, and I have confidence in Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson’s ability at quarterback. Northwestern seems to be the perfect team to grind out a win over Ohio State in this Friday night showdown.

Colorado over Oregon

October 11th, Autzen Stadium

Oregon enters the 2019 season with quite a lot of hype behind them. The Ducks finished 2018 with a 9-4 record and return quite a lot of key players from that team. Mario Cristobal had a solid season in year one, but his expectations will certainly be greater this season coaching a program that has made two national championships in the last decade. Colorado started off strong in 2018 with a 5-0 record, but unfortunately, everything went downhill from there. The Buffaloes dropped seven consecutive games to finish 5-7, and fired head coach Mike MacIntyre. Colorado brought in Georgia’s defensive coordinator Mel Tucker who made the Bulldogs defense into a powerhouse the last two seasons.

Oregon will come into this game on a short week. Before Colorado, the Ducks will play against a scrappy California team with a stout defense. While Oregon should come out on top in that game, the Golden Bears will not go down without a fight. Oregon will also probably be thinking about their rivalry game against Washington that will be the following week that will almost for sure decide the winner of the Pac 12 North. This rivalry game will be huge for the Ducks, and I would not be surprised if their thoughts look to that game instead of their matchup against the Buffaloes. Colorado will be looking for a big win in Mel Tucker’s first season as head coach and this is a great opportunity for them. Tucker is bringing in a more intense and hard-nosed culture to Colorado that I think will bring out the best from them in big moments. While Oregon has a strong secondary, Colorado has an All-American caliber receiver in Laviska Shenault. Shenault was a dominant player for the Buffaloes in 2018, before going down with injury. Also in the receiving corps in KD Nixon, who is a good second option, and Steven Montez at quarterback who is an experienced starter who can be a very good passing threat. Colorado also has a solid pass defense to counter Oregon quarterback Justin Herbet. Colorado will need to find some reliability up front on defense, but I think that can be found and they have a very good linebacker in Nate Landman. Colorado is a team that I feel is underrated going into 2019, and I think they will prove their worth by winning here.

Missouri over Georgia

November 9th, Sanford Stadium

Georgia finished the regular season 11-1 in 2018, but met their demise when they blew a late lead against Alabama and fell to Texas in the Sugar Bowl. The Bulldogs have become an elite program under Kirby Smart, but they still have a mountain to climb when it comes to surpassing Alabama. Smart has done a very good job of reviving Georgia’s program, but his work is not yet complete. Missouri ended 2018 with a record of 8-5. The Tigers are one of a few teams in the SEC’s teams and are trying to claw their way back to consistency and a higher status after some down seasons. Head coach Barry Odom has brought the team to a bowl game for two straight seasons after missing out the two before. Missouri does go into 2019 with a bit of a dour mood as the Tigers will not be allowed to participate in a bowl game due to an academic scandal. This is especially disappointing as this Missouri team looks quite solid.

Georgia will be hosting Missouri one week after their rivalry game against Florida, and it will also be one week before they play another one of their rivals in Auburn. I think it is quite likely that the mind of Georgia’s players will be elsewhere when playing this game. I believe the comedown of beating Florida and the focus on Auburn will make Georgia a bit less prepared for this game. On the other hand, Missouri knows they will not be playing in a bowl game so this game against Georgia, the best team in their schedule, will be the biggest game on their schedule. Missouri also has a bye before this game, ensuring that they will be ready. Missouri’s offense this season will be quite talented. In the run game, they should be able to attack an inexperienced Georgia front seven with running back Larry Rountree III who rushed for 1,216 yards last season. Quarterback Kelly Bryant has also been known as a dual threat that could keep Georgia’s defense on their toes. Bryant also has experience playing in big games and tough environments from his time at Clemson, and the rest of Missouri’s team will as they play in the SEC and often play teams of great talent. Georgia will also be tasked with covering preseason All-American tight end Albert Okwuegbunam with an inexperienced group of outside linebackers or with a cornerback that he could outmuscle. I think Missouri’s offense is strong enough to cause some discomfort with Georgia’s defense. While Missouri’s defense might not be loaded, they have experience in the secondary which will prove helpful against Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm. Missouri will be psyched up for the game, and they should come out like that. I think a win here could be the highlight of Missouri’s season, and almost negate their lack of a bowl game in their minds if they come out with a win.

Virginia over Notre Dame

September 28th, Notre Dame Stadium

Notre Dame might have been soundly beat by Clemson in the playoff, but their 12-1 record in 2018 is nothing to scoff at. The Fighting Irish finished the regular season undefeated and beat four teams who were ranked at the time in the process. Notre Dame has had some rough times with Brian Kelly as their head coach, but 2018 was definitely one of their higher points. Virginia went 8-5 in 2018, which was their best season since 2011. In just his third season at the helm, Bronco Mendenhall has seemed to turn around previous misfortunes that have plagued Virginia’s program. The one exception being their losing streak to Virginia Tech which they are bound to snap one day. In a recently down ACC Coastal division, Virginia has been able to carve out two solid seasons in 2017 and 2018 and are beginning to finally be taken seriously as a strong program.

Notre Dame will go into this game freshly after their showdown with Georgia. I think this game will be pretty emotionally charged and intense as multiple Georgia players made their disagreements with the playoff committee including Notre Dame over them public (and then they lost the Sugar Bowl to my beloved Texas Longhorns, which was awesome). Notre Dame will want to prove their worth in that game and Georgia will want to show that they were and are the better team (I did consider putting Notre Dame over Georgia in this article). After that game, they will have to turn around and face a scrappy Virginia team. Virginia in the other hand, has a glorified tune-up game against Old Dominion the week before. Virginia also has played Notre Dame close before, losing on a late Hail Mary in their matchup with the Fighting Irish in 2015. While Notre Dame will expect to have a solid defensive line this season, Virginia has a good mobile quarterback in Bryce Perkins, who ran for 923 yards in 2018. Perkins has shown big play potential and will keep a solid secondary from Notre Dame on their toes. Defensively, Virginia has a great pro prospect at cornerback in Bryce Hall who can help stifle Ian Book and Notre Dame’s passing attack. Virginia also returns every starting linebacker from 2018 led by Jordan Mack. Virginia has shown an upward trajectory and has enjoyed some solid but not astounding wins in recent years. A win here will be the perfect opportunity for the astounding one they are looking for.

North Texas over California

September 14th, California Memorial Stadium

In 2018, California returned to a bowl game with a 7-6 record in head coach Justin Wilcox’s second season at the helm. The Golden Bears started off the season 3-0 and won their first game at USC since 2001. California’s season also saw an upset win against Washington. In a twist from what is typical of them, the Golden Bears saw success in 2018 because of a stout defense that allowed less than 20 points in over half of their games. Wilcox, formerly the defensive coordinator at Washington, and defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter have done a very good job of coaching up their defense. North Texas went 9-4 in 2018, their best record since joining Conference-USA. Head coach Seth Littrell has done a very good job of turning around the program’s previous misfortunes in his three years as head coach, and turned down offers from bigger programs to remain at North Texas for the 2019 season.

North Texas has one of the nation’s most electrifying quarterbacks in the country in Mason Fine, who has a great arm and can also be a game breaker on the ground. Fine has been named Conference-USA Offensive Player of the Year for the last two seasons. Running back DeAndre Torrey and receivers Rico Bussey Jr. and Jaelon Darden round out a very prolific offense for the Mean Green. While California has a solid defense, I think Fine and North Texas’s offense will be able to poke some holes in it. The Mean Green also have a solid group of safeties that can stifle California’s passing game and have a great playmaker in Khairi Muhammad. It should also be noted that North Texas has experience when it comes to taking down power five opponents after they beat Arkansas 44-17 last season. California will be traveling to Washington the week before their matchup against North Texas. The Golden Bears lack experience along their defensive line and do not look like they will have an answer for North Texas’s run game. Offensively, California struggled in 2018 and lost their best weapon in running back Patrick Laird. I think that they will also not yet have a definite answer on that side of the ball by the time this game rolls around. All of this looks line the perfect opportunity for North Texas to strike and get a great win for their program and for Seth Littrell.

Michigan over Ohio State

November 30th, Michigan Stadium

I think just about every college football fan knows about the recent results of this rivalry. Ohio State has won seven games in a row over Michigan and 14 out of their last 15 matchups. Of the last 15 seasons, Ohio State has 13 seasons with 10 or more wins while Michigan has just five. In that time frame, Ohio State has eight Big 10 Championships while Michigan has just one, and that was in 2004. Ohio State has two National Championships and another three title game or playoff appearances while Michigan has none. To summarize, Ohio State has had a significant upper hand in the recent history of this historic rivalry. 2018 seemed like the year things could finally come together for Michigan as the Wolverines were 10-1 heading into the game with seven wins by 20 or more points. Michigan sported one of if not the best defense in the country. Ohio State’s was also 10-1 but was struggling to pull out wins against lesser opponents. When the two met in Columbus, Ohio State tore Michigan’s defense to shreds and won 62-39. This loss led to Michigan getting blown out in their bowl game and left a sour taste in their mouths after ending what was a great season so poorly. Ohio State missed out on the playoff, but their season felt like a success after dismantling Michigan and winning the Rose Bowl.

While this has been said many times, this season looks a perfect opportunity for Michigan to pull off the upset. Ohio State has a first year head coach in Ryan Day, who might be a good coach but will lack experience this season. The game is in Ann Arbor, which will obviously give Michigan an advantage. Ohio State will also have to travel to Ann Arbor with an inexperienced quarterback in Justin Fields. While Fields will gain experience throughout the season, nothing will compare to playing in the Big House in a rivalry of this magnitude. While Ohio State should have a very good defensive line and a future top five draft pick in defensive end Chase Young, Michigan returns four starters from an offensive line that made significant strides in 2018. Michigan also should have a more talented receiving corps this year with Donovan Peoples-Jones, Nico Collins, and Tarik Black returning. Shea Patterson also looked much better by the end of the season in his first year at quarterback for Michigan. The Wolverines lose a lot of production on defense, but I have faith in defensive coordinator Don Brown to develop a very good defense by the time this game rolls around. While I have said it before, there are too many things coming together for Michigan for them to not have a good chance of finally ending Ohio State’s recent dominance of this rivalry in 2019.

Iowa State over Texas

November 16th, Jack Trice Stadium

2018 was a big season for Texas. The Longhorns went 10-4, win the Red River Shootout, (I will never call it the Red River Rivalry) and won the Sugar Bowl for their best season since Mack Brown left. In just his second season, Tom Herman has turned around a previously underperforming program. While Texas fans have a big reason to be optimistic for their future, the one crippling flaw that is evident with this program is their inability to emphatically beat less talented programs. Iowa State is having a massive turnaround as well. The Cyclones have been consistent cellar dwellers in the Big 12 and had not had a winning season for six straight seasons before hiring Matt Campbell after the 2015 season. After going 3-9 his first season, the Cyclones went 8-5 in 2017 and 2018. Iowa State has done very well when it comes to beating opponents that are a notch above them in terms of talent or name recognition, and the future looks very bright in Ames for the first time in a while.

As I have said before, Texas teams under Tom Herman have had a tendency to play to the level of their competition, especially when playing on the road. Another habit of Tom Herman coached teams is a tendency to overlook games against opponents with a lesser reputation. A prime example of that is their loss to Maryland in 2018, or at Oklahoma State in the same season. On the contrary, Iowa State seems to prey on opponents who overlook them. This is especially the case when playing night games in Ames. While the time for this game has not been decided, it is in Ames and I would be willing to bet that it is a night game. Iowa State beat West Virginia in Ames in 2018, TCU in 2017, and their most notable win was against then second ranked Oklahoma State in 2011. In that time, they also have a win at Oklahoma in 2017. In a football sense, Texas loses a ton of production on the defensive front. Iowa State returns four out of five starters along the offensive line. Quarterback Brock Purdy has great arm talent and can run around a bit as well. Defensive end JaQuan Bailey is another player who could wreak havoc against Texas’s offensive line if they are not careful. All in all, Texas will likely be thinking about the end of the season and a potential Big 12 Championship matchup with Oklahoma at this point. This situation is one where Iowa State thrives and where Texas tanks.

Arkansas over Texas A&M

September 28th, AT&T Stadium

For Texas A&M, fans are hoping that 2018 was a sign of them turning a corner. In his first year as head coach, Jimbo Fisher went 9-4 with a very tough schedule that featured four top 12 finishers and two playoff teams. This season featured some instant classics that even with losses, left the Aggies feeling confident. Jimbo Fisher was given a very large amount of money by Texas A&M to leave Florida State, and expectations are clearly high. While 9-4 was solid in year one, improvement in the near future is likely expected. Arkansas had a very rough go of it in 2018 as they finished the season 2-10. Chad Morris knew the rebuilding process would be rough in Fayetteville, but I am sure he was hoping to scrape out more than two wins. The cupboard was left pretty bare for Morris, so the poor season is not all his fault, but Arkansas fans have to be a bit concerned. Thankfully the Razorbacks return some key players from last season and have a pretty favorable schedule in non-conference play. There is a roadmap to success for Morris, but it may take awhile for him to find his way.

To start things off, this rivalry is often a close game. While Texas A&M has won seven consecutive matchups, four of the last five games have been decided by seven or fewer points. The Aggies will also come into this game fresh off of a matchup with Auburn. Texas A&M has quite a few players they need to replace on defense, especially up front. Arkansas running back Rakeem Boyd became their featured offensive player by the end of the season and should be able to rack up yards in this game. Boyd also should have some extra motivation being that he transferred from Texas A&M. Arkansas also returns some solid players in the secondary that should be able to counter Texas A&M’s deep receiving corps. Arkansas also returns linebacker De’Jon Harris, last year’s leading tackler in the SEC. At quarterback, Arkansas could also be starting Texas A&M transfer Nick Starkel who is in a quarterback battle at the moment. This game consistently yields exciting matchups, and it seems like one of them is bound to go in favor of Arkansas. I think that with high pressure in his second season, Chad Morris is bound to pull out an unexpected win.

Auburn over Alabama

November 30th, Jordan-Hare Stadium

For the last decade, Alabama has been a titan in the college football world. The Crimson Tide have been ranked number one in the country for at least one week in every season since 2008, and have five national titles since 2009. Despite having a revolving door of coordinators, Alabama has been continuously dominant throughout the Nick Sagan era, and have only had three seasons since 2009 where they have lost more than one game. Unfortunately, for the first time in a few years, Alabama does not definitively look like the best program in the country as Clemson has taken home two of the last three National Championships. Auburn on the other hand, enters 2019 with quite a bit of uncertainty. The Tigers went 8-5 in a disappointing 2018 season where they had a losing record in SEC play. Auburn comes into this season without any real indicators that they will be much improved. If they do not improve, it is likely that head coach Gus Malzahn could be out of a job at the end of the season. With the recent rise of LSU and Texas A&M, Auburn is losing their spot among the SEC’s elite, and they need to find their way soon.

To start things off, this game will be in Auburn, where the Tigers have won two of their last three matchups (they have lost four in a row in Tuscaloosa). Alabama will be pretty inexperienced along the interior offensive line, where they will be matched up against Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Brown. Brown surprisingly spurned the NFL Draft and chose to return to Auburn, where he will likely be the best defensive tackle in the country. While Auburn will have a new quarterback, they will have enough time to have found their guy (hopefully). Auburn returns both starting cornerbacks from 2018 which will help against Alabama’s elite group of receiver and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Auburn also returns all five starters on the offensive line from 2018, meaning their weak link from last season should be a bit patched up.

Deviating from direct matchups, I just think this would definitely be a season where Auburn would win this game. Alabama will likely be awaiting an SEC Championship matchup while Auburn will be ready to fire Gus Malzahn. An Auburn win would throw everything out of whack.

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