To Extend or Not To Extend – The Curious Case of The Kung Fu Panda

This off season contract extensions talks between the San Francisco Giants and their third baseman Pablo Sandoval feel apart. Brian Sabean waited last year till last minute to resign Hunter Pence and Tim Lincecum. Heyman said that he was looking for a 5-year $100 million dollar contract during spring training but since he has had a good season thus far he may ask for more. Can the Giants afford this contract? Can they afford to let him walk? Who are the potential replacements for him.

What is Pablo’s worth to the Giants?

First of all Pablo Sandoval is a fan favourite in San Francisco. Affectionately refereed to as “The Kung Fu Panda” by the fans of the orange and black. Last year it was reported that Pablo Sandoval had the 19th best selling jersey in all of baseball. Along with Buster Posey and Hunter Pence he is the face of the Giants. If he leaves during the off season there will be a huge backlash from the fans. He has been inconsistent through his career, his batting average has varied from .268 to .315, he has hit as many as 25 home runs and as little as 13. He has put up a 3.3 WAR this season which is good enough for 32nd in the MLB. More importantly he is 7th among 3rd Baseman and 1.5 WAR better than his potential replacement Chase Headley. According to the advanced defensive metrics he has been amazing (12 DRS, 7.7 UZR) this year which is surprising considering they did not like him last year. He may even consideration for a gold glove this year. His performance in the postseason has been mixed thus far. He will be remembered for not doing much in the 2010 World Series run and for being amazing during the 2012 World Series Run. No Giant fan will ever forget his three run game in the first game of the World Series. He also has an injury history having only played over 140 game once since 2010. That has to be taken into account as well.

Potential replacements

In House

If the Giants let Sandoval walk this off season who could they get to replace him? My first thought is Adam Duvall. The 25-year old third baseman has split time this season between Triple-A Fresno and the big league club this season. Despite hitting well in Triple-A (.297/.358/.602 with 22 HR) he hasn’t been able to find the same success against major league pitching (.200/.220/.375, 2 HR in 40 AB). Adam Duvall was usually named anywhere from the 10th to the 20th prospect for the Giants this season. His best tool is his power, he hit 22 home runs in Low-A in 2011, 30 in High-A in 2012 and 17 in Double-A in 2013. Though he is hitting .297 this season he does not project to be a great average hitter. His plate discipline is OK, his walk rate sits around 7 and his K rate is over 15%. Scouts aren’t very positive about his defence or athleticism. Some fear he will have to be moved to first base. He isn’t going to be a star but he could be a role player. Ideally you don’t want him starting every day, his production is much lower than Pablo and possibly even Chase Headley. Besides Duvall there really aren’t any other options in the Giants system.

Free Agency

If they can’t find any internal options then they may be forced to use free agency. The options at third base are very limited this off season, only five free agents (including Pablo Sandoval) to be have put up positive fWAR this season. Chone Figgins is no longer a starter and is on the wrong side of 30. Kelly Johnson is 32, doesn’t hit for average (.219) or power (6 HR, .373 SLG), he shouldn’t be a starter and I can’t see the Giants considering him. Mark Reynolds is an interesting possibility. His slash line is ugly (.206/.298/.418) and he strikes out a lot but he is good for 20 HR and will save a few runs with his glove (4 DSR, 4.6 UZR at 3B). He could be considered a backup option in case Pablo leaves for greener pastures, they don’t trust Duvall and Headley signs elsewhere. I would like to remind everyone we have had two very similar players removed from the active roster recently (Brandon Hicks, Dan Uggla) so this signing seems unlikely. That leaves Chase Headley the one time MVP candidate currently playing for the New York Yankees. He struggled early on this season before being traded to the Yankees for Yangervis Solarte. The change of scenery seems to have helped, he has had a wRC+ of 110 since joining the pinstripes. He is a plus defender (13 DRS and 8.3 UZR) so there is no worry that we will have a Micheal Morse at the hot corner. A big red flag for me is he will be 31 next season so if he signs a longer term deal regression can be expected. He is the best option if the panda leaves.

Conclusion

In conclusion after looking at how valuable Pablo Sandoval is to the Giants I can’t see how they could let him walk. None of his potential replacements could come close to giving the Giants the same production at the hot corner. Bochy’s lineup has enough trouble producing enough runs with him it would be hard to see them competing without him. Pablo past injury concerns and inconsistency are red flags as is the fact that he and the Giants were unable to come to terms on an extension. With Micheal Morse, Jake Peavy, Ryan Vogelsong and Sergio Romo set to hit free agency and Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Gutierrez and others going through arbitration this will be an expensive off season for the Giants. Management will need to make a decision if they will attempt to be competitive or not. Considering their farm system is very weak at the moment they really don’t have any other option, they must be contenders. They can’t hope to contend with the Panda so they will ultimately forced to give him a long term contract for way too much money. Those always work out, right?