Guest Column by Andreas Shepard

As readers of Football Outsiders, you know and love the proprietary statistics like DVOA. DVOA has many wonderful qualities –- it takes into account both raw yardage and progress towards a first down, it adjusts for situation and opponent quality, and it is an excellent predictor of future performance. It does, however, have one drawback –- it requires play-by-play data, which as of now only goes back to 1989. To work around that difficulty, and to add more fuel to the perpetual argument about the average teams for now, I developed a method to estimate DVOA for seasons where play-by-play data is not yet available. I’m sharing the results here. It isn’t perfect, but it should be enough to get some good discussions going.

Before we get to the results, let me explain the method I used. (If you aren’t interested in how the sausage was made, skip ahead to the next section.) I only considered teams from 1950 to the present. That was the year of the AAFC-NFL merger, which marked a) the beginning of more reliable stat keeping and b) the end of the era where expansion teams would start up and then fold within a few seasons. For each year from 1950 on, I collected total box score statistics for each team on offense, defense, and special teams (yards, touchdowns, interceptions, fumbles, sacks, first downs, field goals, return yards, etc.). As DVOA is a per-play metric, I calculated each team’s per-play average for each of these stats. I then normalized each stat against the league average for that season. To translate these normalized per play statistics to VOA, I ran a series of linear regressions using the data from 1989-2012 (one each for rushing, passing, FG/XP, kickoffs, kick returns, punts, and punt returns). After adding opponent adjustments, these ratings are combined into composite ratings for total offense, defense, special teams, and overall.

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This method produces estimated DVOA that has a correlation coefficient of 0.958 with actual DVOA. This is very high, but still not 100 percent; I can’t claim that when Football Outsiders gets its hands on the actual play-by-play data for these years that the numbers will line up exactly (although the results for 1989 and 1990 came in quite close to my estimates). And of course, even with full play-by-play data, DVOA is only an imperfect approximation of a team’s true performance. So if you disagree with the results below, just remember that these numbers are a flawed estimate of a flawed estimate of true team quality. Two other important notes: First, 1987 numbers below include the strike data. Second, like the usual DVOA tables on the FO stat pages, all numbers here represent only the regular season. With those preliminaries out of the way, let’s get to the results: offenses, defenses, special teams, and then total results. Actual DVOA ratings are published in standard type, with estimated DVOA for teams from 1950 through 1988 published in italics.

Best Offensive DVOA 1950-2013 (estimated 1950-1988) Total Offense x Pass Offense x Rush Offense Rank Team DVOA Pass Rush x Team DVOA x Team DVOA 1 NE 2007 43.5% 72.7% 19.6% CLE1 1953 75.0% STL 2000 36.5% 2 NE 2010 42.2% 67.5% 24.2% NE 2007 72.7% CLE1 1966 32.2% 3 CLE1 1953 40.2% 75.0% 9.6% GB 2011 67.6% CAR 2011 32.1% 4 SD 1982 35.9% 49.3% 18.3% IND 2004 67.6% DEN 1998 31.4% 5 KC 2002 35.4% 47.0% 29.3% NE 2010 67.5% SD 1963 31.0% 6 LARM 1951 35.0% 50.0% 21.1% WAS 1991 65.0% SF 1993 30.5% 7 DEN 1998 34.5% 52.5% 31.4% DEN 2013 60.7% SF 1954 30.0% 8 LARM 1954 34.4% 47.3% 24.2% SD 2009 59.6% KC 2002 29.3% 9 GB 2011 33.8% 67.6% 5.5% MIA 1984 57.6% DET 1990 29.2% 10 DEN 2013 33.7% 60.7% 4.3% HOIL 1961 56.3% CLE1 1963 29.0% 11 MIA 1984 33.5% 57.6% 4.2% IND 2006 55.4% KC 2003 28.9% 12 KC 2003 33.4% 43.3% 28.9% NE 2011 55.3% CLE1 1960 28.3% 13 SF 1992 33.1% 51.8% 20.7% TEN 2003 54.7% SF 1998 27.8% 14 NO 2011 33.0% 50.1% 18.5% NE 2012 53.8% SD 2006 27.2% 15 CLE1 1966 32.5% 32.7% 32.2% NE 2009 53.5% DEN 2005 26.8% 16 HOIL 1961 32.4% 56.3% 5.3% DEN 1998 52.5% CLE1 1958 26.7% 17 NE 2011 31.9% 55.3% 12.6% SF 1992 51.8% PIT 2000 26.4% 18 IND 2004 31.8% 67.6% 5.2% SF 1989 51.7% CLE1 1952 26.2% 19 KC 2004 31.6% 45.1% 24.9% MIN 1998 51.6% SD 2003 26.1% 20 SF 1993 31.4% 44.2% 30.5% SD 2013 51.3% KC 1966 25.9%

Tom Brady’s MVP seasons came while leading the two best offenses since 1950, but neither of those teams had the best estimated passing DVOA. That honor goes to Otto Graham and the 1953 Browns. They led the league in yards per attempt, completion percentage, interception percentage, and first downs per pass. Their 8.5 net yards per attempt was over 3 yards better than the league average, the largest gap ever. On the rushing side, Marshall Faulk was really good, helping power the 2000 Rams to the best rushing performance on record. This may shock you, but Jim Brown was also really good. He played nine seasons, and the Browns finished in the top 25 in estimated rushing DVOA in five of them. Of course the rest of his team wasn’t too shabby either –- they managed to put together the second-best rushing DVOA ever the year after he retired, when running backs Leroy Kelly and Ernie Green both made the Pro Bowl.

Worst Offensive DVOA 1950-2013 (estimated 1950-1988) Total Offense x Pass Offense x Rush Offense Rank Team DVOA Pass Rush x Team DVOA x Team DVOA 1 HOU 2002 -43.3% -37.9% -27.4% SEA 1992 -65.3% IND 1991 -30.2% 2 SEA 1992 -41.3% -65.3% -6.6% ATL 1974 -62.7% PIT 1957 -29.2% 3 SF 2005 -40.4% -56.0% -12.2% TB 1977 -62.5% ARI 2005 -29.1% 4 TB 1977 -39.8% -62.5% -21.9% BUF 1968 -57.6% TB 1983 -27.9% 5 PIT 1965 -39.5% -57.0% -21.6% PIT 1965 -57.0% WAS 1962 -27.7% 6 OAK 2006 -37.0% -45.4% -12.8% SF 2005 -56.0% HOU 2002 -27.4% 7 CHI 2004 -36.5% -50.6% -8.5% NYJ 1976 -54.9% JAC 2013 -27.2% 8 DEN 1966 -36.2% -44.8% -26.1% DET 1959 -50.9% BAL 2013 -27.2% 9 CAR 2010 -35.8% -40.1% -20.7% CHI 2004 -50.6% PHI 1954 -26.8% 10 ARI 2010 -35.6% -46.1% -8.6% BALC 1953 -50.3% WAS 1965 -26.3% 11 NO 1997 -35.6% -41.4% -19.1% BOS 1968 -49.7% DEN 1966 -26.1% 12 BOS 1968 -34.8% -49.7% -19.0% GB 1950 -49.7% ARI 1995 -25.1% 13 ATL 1974 -34.6% -62.7% -6.1% NO 1975 -47.8% WAS 1973 -25.1% 14 TB 1976 -33.6% -45.6% -21.7% SF 1978 -46.9% PIT 1966 -24.9% 15 BUF 1968 -33.4% -57.6% -6.5% ARI 2010 -46.1% NYG 1953 -23.5% 16 IND 1991 -32.8% -29.0% -30.2% TB 1976 -45.6% WAS 1968 -23.1% 17 SF 2007 -32.2% -42.1% -3.1% JAC 2011 -45.4% PHI 1991 -23.0% 18 NYG 1951 -32.0% -36.6% -22.3% OAK 2006 -45.4% DET 2006 -22.9% 19 ARI 2012 -31.0% -30.3% -22.1% DEN 1966 -44.8% NO 1998 -22.9% 20 NYJ 1995 -30.7% -35.6% -18.3% IND 1984 -44.5% ATL 2000 -22.8%

Taking a look at the worst ever offenses, some familiar names appear. You remember that David Carr set the sack record for the expansion Texans, but his teammate Jonathan Wells also set the record for worst Rush DYAR in the last 20 years. The Texans ranked last in the league that year in basically every offensive category. However, they did not rank last in all-time passing DVOA. That dubious honor goes to the 1992 Seahawks, best remembered as the team that went 2-14 despite having defensive player of the year Cortez Kennedy. That will happen when your starting quarterbacks are Stan Gelbaugh, Kelly Stouffer, and Dan "is his brother available?" McGwire. The worst rushing offense title belongs to the 1991 Colts, who somehow managed to rush for only three touchdowns all season while averaging a mere 3.3 yards per carry. I’ll leave the Trent Richardson jokes to you.

Best Defensive DVOA 1950-2013 (estimated 1950-1988) Total Defense x Pass Defense Rush Defense Rank Team DVOA Pass Rush x Team DVOA x Team DVOA 1 PHI 1991 -42.4% -48.6% -34.9% TB 2002 -51.9% BAL 2000 -36.6% 2 MIN 1969 -32.9% -42.5% -19.9% PHI 1991 -48.6% PHI 1991 -34.9% 3 TB 2002 -31.8% -51.9% -8.8% MIA 1982 -48.3% SD 1998 -32.9% 4 PIT 1976 -30.1% -35.7% -25.0% MIN 1969 -42.5% MIN 2006 -30.5% 5 PIT 2008 -29.0% -32.8% -24.2% CHI 1963 -42.4% KC 1995 -30.5% 6 PIT 1974 -28.9% -41.8% -18.3% PIT 1973 -42.2% NYG 1951 -30.2% 7 BUF 2004 -28.5% -34.7% -21.9% PIT 1974 -41.8% PIT 2010 -29.0% 8 LARM 1968 -28.5% -35.2% -21.3% NYG 1963 -40.2% BAL 2008 -28.6% 9 PIT 1973 -27.9% -42.2% -16.5% MIN 1970 -38.5% TEN 2000 -27.4% 10 BAL 2008 -27.8% -27.1% -28.6% MIN 1988 -38.4% BAL 2007 -27.3% 11 CHI 2012 -26.8% -29.0% -23.2% DET 1965 -38.2% SD 2000 -26.6% 12 CHI 1985 -26.8% -35.4% -12.8% NYJ 2009 -36.5% CHI 2011 -26.5% 13 CHI 1963 -26.7% -42.4% -11.8% PIT 1976 -35.7% SF 2011 -26.1% 14 DET 1962 -26.1% -29.7% -21.7% NYG 1961 -35.6% WAS 2004 -25.7% 15 OAK 1967 -26.0% -34.5% -13.2% CHI 1985 -35.4% SD 1999 -25.7% 16 SEA 2013 -25.8% -34.3% -15.1% LARM 1968 -35.2% BAL 2006 -25.3% 17 KC 1969 -25.6% -33.0% -14.6% BUF 2004 -34.7% SF 1995 -25.2% 18 NYJ 2009 -25.5% -36.5% -13.9% OAK 1967 -34.5% PIT 1976 -25.0% 19 MIN 1988 -25.2% -38.4% -9.5% ATL 1977 -34.4% ARI 2013 -24.9% 20 BAL 2003 -25.0% -29.5% -19.9% SEA 2013 -34.3% MIN 1994 -24.7%

Shifting to the other side of the ball, the 1991 Eagles are the best defense for now and it’s not even close. The 1969 edition of the Purple People Eaters, who come in second, are closer to 35th place than they are to first. The Steel Curtain makes three appearances in the top-10 in a four-year span (and they won the Super Bowl in the fourth year). Having four Hall of Famers on one defense is a good thing.

You may be surprised to see the Eagles so far ahead of the pack –- I was too. They are generally in the conversation when people talk about all-time great defenses, but not the clear frontrunner. This is partially an issue of a difficult schedule -– their VOA without opponent adjustments is "only" -38.2% -– but that still leaves them comfortably ahead of the pack. The other major reason is their teammates. While the Eagles had an average special teams unit in 1991, that offense was terrible. Their offensive DVOA of -24.6% is the worst by far of any of the other teams with top defensive DVOAs. This set them up in more unfavorable situations than many of the other all-time great defenses. In contrast, Buddy Ryan’s other all-time great defense, the 1985 Bears, had the fifth-best offense in the league. This gave them more opportunities to shine, which helps explain why their defense only comes in 12th all-time instead of first or second like you might expect. The fact that the 1991 Eagles were still able to end up in the conversation despite their albatross of an offense is perhaps their most impressive accomplishment. I say perhaps, because the 1991 Eagles have another remarkable thing to brag about –- their incredible balance. They had the No. 2 defense against both the pass and the run. Only the 2002 Bucs and 2000 Ravens, respectively, managed to top them. The 1998 Chargers slide into third place for run defense, which helps explain how a team that started Ryan Leaf and Craig Whelihan at quarterback managed to scrape together five wins.

Worst Defensive DVOA 1950-2013 (estimated 1950-1988) Total Defense x Pass Defense x Rush Defense Rank Team DVOA Pass Rush x Team DVOA x Team DVOA 1 WAS 1954 34.2% 43.4% 24.9% BALC 1981 46.8% BAL1 1950 29.5% 2 TB 1986 30.8% 40.1% 22.4% MIA 1976 45.6% NYY 1950 29.0% 3 BAL1 1950 30.2% 24.9% 29.5% WAS 1954 43.4% WAS 1959 26.8% 4 SEA 1976 29.5% 41.3% 21.9% BAL 1996 42.0% DLTX 1952 25.9% 5 BALC 1981 28.0% 46.8% 12.3% SF 1999 41.7% NYG 1968 25.8% 6 WAS 1951 26.9% 28.1% 18.3% SEA 1976 41.3% HOIL 1965 25.3% 7 MIA 1968 26.2% 29.5% 23.5% NYG 1966 40.9% WAS 1954 24.9% 8 MIN 2000 26.0% 35.2% 13.8% STLC 1969 40.9% SD 1971 24.6% 9 ATL 1966 25.8% 33.3% 18.9% BALC 1973 40.5% MIA 1986 23.9% 10 NYG 1966 25.5% 40.9% 13.2% TB 1986 40.1% KC 1976 23.5% 11 NE 1972 25.2% 37.6% 17.4% SD 1967 39.4% MIA 1968 23.5% 12 MIA 1986 25.0% 26.2% 23.9% ATL 1967 38.4% OAK 1961 23.1% 13 NYY 1951 24.9% 25.7% 18.0% NYJ 1975 38.3% WAS 1969 22.9% 14 PHI 1973 24.8% 29.8% 21.1% ATL 1996 38.0% DAL 1961 22.5% 15 NO 1977 24.5% 35.2% 19.0% ATL 1968 37.8% TB 1986 22.4% 16 DET 2008 24.3% 32.8% 17.1% NE 1972 37.6% SEA 1976 21.9% 17 SD 1974 24.3% 36.4% 15.1% MIN 1984 37.0% PHI 1973 21.1% 18 MIN 1984 23.4% 37.0% 10.5% NO 1969 36.7% ATL 1985 20.5% 19 WAS 1959 23.1% 18.6% 26.8% DET 2009 36.5% SD 1966 20.5% 20 SD 1971 22.9% 20.6% 24.6% SD 1974 36.4% CLE1 1965 20.5%

The teams that show up on the list of worst defenses are a real sorry bunch. Washington makes multiple appearances during the 1950s, when they were the last holdouts against racial integration. Not coincidentally, this period came in the middle of a 25-year playoff drought. The 1950 Colts and 1951 New York Yanks both went belly up after the season (the current version of the Colts franchise started in 1953), while the 1976 Seahawks were an expansion team that played like one. The 0-16 Lions make an appearance, as do the 1977 Saints that allowed the expansion Buccaneers their first win in 27 tries. For the full story of the extraordinarily dysfunctional 1981 Colts, who set records for most points, yards, touchdowns, and first downs allowed, see Mike Tanier’s article from a few years back. And for an even more messed up franchise, check out the Wikipedia article on the 1952 Dallas Texans, who were playing "home" games in Akron, Ohio and Hershey, Pennsylvania by the end of the season due to poor attendance and financial woes. They folded after the season, becoming the last team in NFL history that isn’t still around in some form today. (The AFL Dallas Texans, who eventually became today’s Kansas City Chiefs, are a separate franchise that started in 1960.)

Best and Worst Special Teams DVOA 1950-2013 (estimated 1950-1988) Rank Team Best DVOA x Team Worst DVOA 1 LARM 1985 13.3% BUF 2000 -15.4% 2 NYG 1951 12.2% NYG 1984 -13.3% 3 NO 2002 12.2% CHI 1952 -12.8% 4 CHI 1967 11.2% WAS 2013 -12.0% 5 CHI 2007 11.2% NYG 1987 -11.4% 6 CHIC 1959 11.0% SEA 1997 -11.1% 7 CLE1 1994 10.1% BOS 1960 -10.7% 8 KC 1968 10.0% CLE1 1976 -10.3% 9 LARM 1984 9.8% SD 2010 -10.2% 10 CAR 1996 9.8% BUF 1976 -10.0% 11 CLE 2009 9.7% PIT 1986 -10.0% 12 DEN 1966 9.4% CIN 2002 -9.4% 13 OAK 1975 9.2% OAK 1998 -9.3% 14 DAL 1998 9.2% CHI 1997 -9.2% 15 KC 1980 9.1% TB 1992 -9.2% 16 BAL 2012 9.0% TB 1983 -9.2% 17 PHI 2001 8.9% CIN 1980 -9.1% 18 DAL 1997 8.9% STL 2004 -9.0% 19 BUF 2005 8.8% CHI 1954 -8.6% 20 MIA 2000 8.8% MIN 1977 -8.5%

The 1985 Rams are estimated to have beat out the 2002 Saints for the best special teams DVOA ever. They ranked in the top four that year in almost every facet of special teams, with All-Pro Ron Brown and his three kick return touchdowns leading the way. At the other end of the spectrum, the 2000 Bills hold on to their title of worst special teams ever. Aaron Schatz covered this extensively in the original DVOA commentary for the 2000 season, but suffice to say that Buffalo was horrendous in pretty much every way it is possible to be horrendous on special teams. So what happens when we add it all up? This table gives the best teams in either actual or estimated DVOA. Teams that won the Super Bowl or pre-1967 NFL Championship are listed with asterisks.

Best Total DVOA 1950-2013 (estimated 1950-1988) Rank Team Total DVOA Offense Defense ST 1 WAS 1991* 56.9% 27.2% -21.1% 8.6% 2 NE 2007 52.9% 43.5% -5.8% 3.6% 3 GB 1962* 47.9% 21.4% -20.7% 5.8% 4 GB 1961* 46.0% 27.6% -11.6% 6.8% 5 CHI 1985* 45.3% 12.5% -26.8% 6.1% 6 NE 2010 44.6% 42.2% 2.3% 4.7% 7 OAK 1967 44.3% 11.6% -26.0% 6.8% 8 PIT 1976 42.7% 10.4% -30.1% 2.1% 9 GB 1996* 41.9% 15.2% -19.3% 7.4% 10 BALC 1968 40.9% 13.0% -21.0% 6.8% 11 SF 1987 40.8% 25.0% -13.4% 2.4% 12 SF 1995 40.1% 18.6% -23.7% -2.2% 13 SEA 2013* 40.0% 9.4% -25.8% 4.8% 14 DAL 1968 39.5% 17.1% -15.7% 6.7% 15 CLE1 1953 39.2% 40.2% 5.6% 4.7% 16 KC 1968 38.8% 15.6% -13.2% 10.0% 17 MIA 1973* 38.4% 19.5% -15.6% 3.3% 18 SEA 2012 38.3% 18.5% -14.1% 5.7% 19 PIT 2004 37.6% 16.3% -18.9% 2.4% 20 KC 1969* 37.6% 7.3% -25.6% 4.6%

Of the 1638 teams since 1950, the best one played in our nation’s capital in 1991. They had incredible balance, with the offense, defense, and special teams each ranking in the top-50 all time. The recent Patriots claim a couple dubious records: best team not to win the Super Bowl (2007) and best to not win a playoff game (2010). The best team of the pre-1991 era actually maintained their performance for two seasons: the 1961-62 Green Bay Packers. Their two-year run is easily the best of any team ever. The 1985 Bears, who are usually No. 1 or No. 2 in most "Best Team of All Time" lists, come in at No. 5. This is where we have to remember that these estimates only consider the regular season; one of the strongest arguments for the 1985 Chicago Bears as the greatest team ever is the way they stomped over three playoff opponents by a combined score of 91-10. You’ve probably noticed that a few of the other usual suspects are absent from the list. The undefeated 1972 Dolphins are No. 38 in total DVOA. They were an excellent team, ranking No. 1 in both offense and defense that season, but were not dominant in any category. They are also held back by a weak schedule. Without opponent adjustments, they would jump up to ninth. The 1999 Rams are even more extreme. They are 41st by DVOA, but shoot up all the way to sixth if you ignore opponent adjustments. The gap between their DVOA and VOA is 10.4%, the fifth-biggest difference ever. Several of the most dominant dynasties had consistently high DVOAs, but generally just missed the cutoff for the top 20. The 1992-95 Cowboys averaged a DVOA of 31.4% and had three teams make the top 50, peaking with 32nd place in 1992. The 1974-79 Steelers had four teams in the top 100 and averaged a DVOA of 30.5%. And most impressively, the 49ers averaged a DVOA of 28.6% for 16 years from 1983-1998, ranking in the top five for all but one season in that stretch. (They were seventh in 1990.)

Worst Total DVOA 1950-2013 (estimated 1950-1988) Rank Team Total DVOA Offense Defense ST 1 SF 2005 -55.5% -40.4% 16.6% 1.5% 2 DET 2009 -51.6% -28.4% 17.9% -5.3% 3 WAS 1954 -51.0% -16.0% 34.2% -0.8% 4 TB 1976 -50.6% -33.6% 14.4% -2.6% 5 PIT 1965 -50.0% -39.5% 8.8% -1.7% 6 TB 1986 -49.8% -11.9% 30.8% -7.1% 7 DET 2008 -48.3% -25.3% 24.3% 1.3% 8 IND 1991 -47.8% -32.8% 13.5% -1.5% 9 STL 2008 -47.1% -28.2% 18.3% -0.6% 10 STL 2009 -45.0% -29.5% 17.2% 1.7% 11 ATL 1987 -44.0% -21.5% 19.1% -3.5% 12 BOS 1970 -43.4% -25.7% 12.5% -5.1% 13 DEN 1967 -42.7% -25.7% 16.1% -0.8% 14 ARI 2003 -42.0% -21.5% 18.3% -2.2% 15 BUF 1984 -42.0% -24.2% 11.4% -6.4% 16 SF 2004 -41.8% -21.2% 19.4% -1.2% 17 HOU 2002 -41.8% -43.3% 2.3% 3.8% 18 NYG 1966 -41.5% -13.6% 25.5% -2.4% 19 BAL1 1950 -41.5% -10.1% 30.2% -1.2% 20 OAK 1961 -41.5% -14.1% 20.8% -6.5%

Alas, all good things must come to an end. Only eight seasons later, the 49ers had become the worst team since 1950. On the surface, their 4-12 record doesn’t seem too bad, but their wins came by a combined 15 points. In second place we have the 2009 Lions, who somehow got worse by DVOA the year after going 0-16. Coming in third is Washington in 1954, who we saw at the top of the worst defense table. They had losses of 41-7, 37-7, 51-21, and 49-21 ... in the first four weeks of the season. And none of those were even their worst defeat of the year: That would come in a 62-3 demolition by the Browns in Week 7. One of the other two teams with a DVOA below -50% is, appropriately enough, the winless expansion Buccaneers, who since 1976 have allowed fans of other expansion teams to say "well, it could be worse." Now, some of you out there may be grumbling about the top 20 list including a number of teams who didn’t win, or even play for, the championship. You have a point! The whole purpose of being the best team in a given year is so your team can take home the trophy. So, as a bonus, here is every NFL champion since 1950, ranked by DVOA.

DVOA of Champions 1950-2013 (estimated 1950-1988) Rank Team Total DVOA Offense Defense ST 1 WAS 1991 56.9% 27.2% -21.1% 8.6% 2 GB 1962 47.9% 21.4% -20.7% 5.8% 3 GB 1961 46.0% 27.6% -11.6% 6.8% 4 CHI 1985 45.3% 12.5% -26.8% 6.0% 5 GB 1996 41.9% 15.2% -19.3% 7.4% 6 SEA 2013 40.0% 9.4% -25.8% 4.8% 7 MIA 1973 38.4% 19.5% -15.6% 3.3% 8 KC 1969 37.6% 7.3% -25.6% 4.6% 9 CLE1 1950 37.5% 14.9% -14.9% 7.7% 10 DAL 1971 36.3% 23.3% -11.3% 1.7% 11 SF 1989 36.0% 26.2% -11.5% -1.7% 12 DAL 1977 35.1% 24.8% -9.6% 0.7% 13 DAL 1992 35.0% 23.6% -9.5% 1.9% 14 PIT 1975 35.0% 13.5% -14.4% 7.2% 15 GB 1966 34.9% 20.1% -16.2% -1.4% 16 MIA 1972 34.5% 18.5% -14.8% 1.2% Rank Team Total DVOA Offense Defense ST 17 NE 2004 34.2% 23.3% -10.7% 0.2% 18 STL 1999 34.0% 17.7% -13.5% 2.8% 19 PIT 1979 33.4% 13.9% -20.2% -0.7% 20 DAL 1995 32.7% 29.6% 0.9% 4.0% 21 BALC 1958 32.6% 19.0% -12.8% 0.9% 22 DEN 1998 32.5% 34.5% 4.3% 2.3% 23 SF 1984 32.5% 28.6% 0.5% 4.3% 24 CLE1 1954 31.9% 15.1% -15.2% 1.7% 25 TB 2002 31.6% -3.8% -31.8% 3.6% 26 NYG 1990 30.8% 10.5% -14.4% 5.9% 27 GB 1967 30.1% 8.8% -12.9% 8.4% 28 PIT 1974 30.1% -3.4% -28.9% 4.6% 29 LARM 1951 29.9% 35.0% -2.3% -7.4% 30 DEN 1997 29.6% 19.4% -5.9% 4.3% 31 NYJ 1968 29.3% 16.8% -15.6% -3.2% 32 SF 1994 27.6% 18.9% -7.5% 1.2% Rank Team Total DVOA Offense Defense ST 33 PIT 2005 27.1% 12.0% -13.5% 1.6% 34 SF 1988 26.9% 14.2% -10.6% 2.1% 35 CHI 1963 26.4% 1.9% -26.7% -2.2% 36 PIT 2008 26.0% -1.5% -29.0% -1.5% 37 DET 1952 25.7% 9.6% -9.1% 7.0% 38 DAL 1993 24.8% 21.8% 0.8% 3.8% 39 BAL 2000 24.1% -8.1% -23.8% 8.4% 40 GB 2010 23.0% 11.5% -13.9% -2.4% 41 NO 2009 21.3% 24.3% -0.4% -3.4% 42 NE 2003 20.7% 1.2% -18.7% 0.8% 43 CLE1 1955 20.4% 17.2% -5.8% -2.6% 44 OAK 1976 18.8% 24.8% 9.4% 3.4% 45 WAS 1982 17.8% 5.7% -7.3% 4.8% 46 IND 2006 16.4% 28.5% 8.5% -3.6% 47 PIT 1978 16.2% 2.7% -12.4% 1.1% 48 GB 1965 13.8% -2.1% -15.2% 0.7% Rank Team Total DVOA Offense Defense ST 49 DET 1953 13.5% 5.8% -6.4% 1.3% 50 SF 1981 13.3% 11.0% -5.8% -3.5% 51 LARD 1983 12.5% 0.1% -9.0% 3.4% 52 NYG 1986 11.6% 3.9% -7.9% -0.1% 53 BAL 1959 11.6% 12.5% 1.0% 0.0% 54 NYG 1956 11.3% 10.5% -4.2% -3.4% 55 PHI 1960 10.8% 10.2% 2.6% 3.2% 56 BAL 2012 9.8% 3.0% 2.2% 9.0% 57 CLE 1964 8.8% 23.0% 19.8% 5.6% 58 NYG 2011 8.4% 10.5% 2.4% 0.3% 59 NE 2001 8.0% 3.4% -1.5% 3.1% 60 WAS 1987 6.7% 10.1% 2.9% -0.5% 61 DET 1957 6.1% 0.8% -5.0% 0.3% 62 NYG 2007 1.8% -1.1% -3.8% -0.9% 63 OAK 1980 0.0% -7.7% -7.6% 0.1% 64 BAL 1970 -3.3% -1.1% 3.9% 1.6%

I’ll mostly leave the commentary to you folks, but one word on the 1970 Baltimore Colts, who come in as the only team to win the Super Bowl with negative DVOA. On the surface, they seem like a strong team, with an 11-2-1 record. However, they had the point differential of a team that would be expected to win only 9.5 games. Furthermore, they faced a weak schedule: their VOA of 5% is 8% higher than their DVOA of -3%. Add those together, and Baltimore was significantly weaker than its record. Finally, for those curious, this last table compares projected DVOA to actual DVOA for the top 20 teams for 1989-2012. (I haven’t been able to assemble the data to create a projection for 2013 yet.)

Actual DVOA vs. Estimated DVOA, 1989-2012 Rank Team Actual DVOA Est. Rank x Team Est. DVOA Actual Rank 1 WAS 1991 56.9% 2 x NE 2007 46.3% 2 2 NE 2007 52.9% 1 WAS 1991 40.4% 1 3 NE 2010 44.6% 9 GB 1996 40.1% 4 4 GB 1996 41.9% 3 TEN 2000 39.2% 16 5 SF 1995 40.1% 5 SF 1995 38.3% 5 6 SEA 2012 38.3% 32 DEN 2012 36.6% 9 7 PIT 2004 37.6% 88 SF 1997 36.2% 49 8 DEN 2012 36.6% 6 STL 1999 35.9% 15 9 SF 1989 36.0% 10 NE 2010 35.2% 3 10 PIT 2010 35.4% 36 SF 1989 35.0% 10 11 NE 2012 35.0% 11 NE 2012 34.9% 12 12 DAL 1992 35.0% 38 DAL 1994 34.9% 17 13 NE 2004 34.2% 52 DAL 1995 34.2% 19 14 STL 1999 34.0% 8 SF 1994 33.0% 49 15 TEN 2000 33.3% 4 TB 2002 32.5% 24 16 DAL 1994 32.9% 12 IND 2004 32.3% 63 17 DAL 1995 32.7% 13 SF 1992 31.8% 29 18 DEN 1998 32.5% 31 OAK 2002 30.1% 41 19 IND 2005 32.1% 30 KC 2003 29.8% 27 20 PHI 2008 31.8% 42 DEN 1997 29.8% 33

There doesn’t seem to be a deeper pattern behind the biggest outliers, like the 2004 Steelers and the 2004 Colts. In general, those teams are just a bit better (or worse) than my estimates across all subcategories of DVOA. Passing offense and defense account for the largest chunks of the gap, but that is to be expected. Those DVOAs have a higher variation in general than rushing offense, rushing defense, or special teams. Any discrepancy in passing will have a magnified effect. As far as I can tell, the main issue is just that there are nuances that are revealed by the play-by-play data that simply are not captured in the aggregate, season-long statistics I am using. I’m open to suggestions in the comments for improvements I could make to the method. Nevertheless, four of the top five teams are the same in both actual and estimated DVOA, so I’m pretty satisfied with the results overall.

Andreas Shepard is a strategy consultant and long-time reader of Football Outsiders. He lives and works in Chicago, where he is (perhaps foolishly) optimistic about Jay Cutler’s new contract.