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“The developments in Iraq are a double-edged sword for Assad,” said Randa Slim, a director at the Washington-based Middle East Institute. “On one hand, these developments help Assad’s narrative to his constituents and to the West that his fight is with terrorists and not against democrats.” On the other hand, she said, the Islamic State’s rapid and successful incursion into Iraq undermines Assad’s claim that he is able to defeat them.

In the most immediate outcome, thousands of Iraqi Shiite militiamen fighting in Syria are heading back home to defend against the Sunni blitz, leaving behind gaping holes in areas under their control.

In interviews conducted by The Associated Press with returning Shiite fighters in Baghdad, many said they were responding to a call to arms issued in recent days by Iraq’s Shiite spiritual leader Ali al-Sistani. Others said they considered Iraq to be the mother battle.

“Yes, we took part in the fighting in Syria. But now the priority is Iraq,” said Jassem al-Jazaeri, a senior official in Iraq’s Hezbollah Brigades, which is believed to be funded and trained by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

Most of the Shiite Iraqi fighters in Syria — believed by some estimates to number between 20,000 and 30,000 — have been battling rebels in suburbs of the Syrian capital and particularly in the vicinity of Sayida Zeinab, home to a major Shiite shrine by the same name.

Syrian opposition activists say Syrian rebels are already exploiting the vacuum left by the Iraqis to mount attacks. A number of Hezbollah fighters were killed in an attack on the town of Rankous in the Qalamoun region last week. The town fell to government and Hezbollah forces two months ago.