



It is the strongest El Nino on record, but we've not really seen an obvious El Nino weather pattern develop in the Eastern Pacific to date. Surfers who have been following our writing on the topic will be aware that consistent El Nino swells are more likely as we move later into the season and that the giants of 1998 arrived at the end of January. So it's fitting that 2016 starts with a large El Nino swell and a weather pattern to please those who like the real world to match their textbook understanding.

A solid swell with both size and period, comfortably confirmed by satellite scan. © 2020 - MSW

This storm is pretty solid – driven by a strong west/east jet-stream on a path that has developed in size and power – and its direction puts a huge amount of coastline in range. Satellite observations confirm the forecast and (while they don't quite track the peak of the swell) do put numbers in the 40ft range. The storm was well predicted by forecast models, we've had good agreement for days. The kicker has been the wind.

Timings are good for paddle at Jaws, a solid swell in the sort of range seen for the Pe'ahi Challenge with those ENE trades making it hard work as ever. But on the mainland things are more complicated. As El Nino gives, it can also take away. That southerly jet-stream track that can build west swell power also brings those same storms directly over the coast. Good news if you have an aquifer in need of replenishment, less good if you're a big wave surfer with a travel budget and a swell to hit at peak with offshore winds.

We've gone back and forth on the numbers from Todos Santos in the south, via Mavericks to Nelscott in Oregon and everywhere in between and there will be windows of great surf – but the challenge of maximising the long period power of that first pulse remains: local winds are really not playing ball.

As always check your local MSW forecast for the very latest numbers on swell and wind.

The latest jet-stream chart looking much as a 'typical' El Nino pattern should. With low pressure to the North and a southerly jet-stream bringing swell, wind and rain to California. © 2020 - MSW

The opposite pattern, from only a couple of weeks ago, with the jet-stream still running north above a large area of coastal high pressure. © 2020 - MSW

If you don't score on this swell (and with a little imagination you should) then you can take solace in the arrival of some much needed rain. © 2020 - NOAA

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