First you could book a flight online. Then came online travel agents. And now you might check in for your hotel via mobile, a computer could set the price, while a chatbot answers your queries.

Some travel experts expect the first autonomous cargo flights to start within several years, while big data analysis is on the rise at internet-based firms like Expedia, Lastminute.com and Skyscanner.

“We have to reinvent the place of the man in the system,” says Fabrice Otaño, chief data officer at AccorHotels group.

“Artificial intelligence can replace some existing jobs, and managers have to take care of what the next step for people is, that is relevant in the data world. We have to evolve our revenue managers into more data jobs, balancing old jobs with new school jobs in business analytics.”

So far, at least, that has not meant a decline in jobs. According to the most recent EU statistics, although overall employment declined from 2008 to 2014, it rose in tourist accommodation and selected tourism industries: now tourism employs just over 12 million people within the EU.

Companies like IBM, whose Watson tool is helping the travel company Thomson trial a smart chatbot for its customers’ holiday searches, pledge to “augment, not replace, human intelligence”.

This is also the view at Skyscanner. The airfare comparison site acquired by Chinese firm Ctrip International for £1.4bn, may have a dedicated “Bots” squad, but it doesn’t believe computing power will replace human roles or travel reviews.

“We see AI [artificial intelligence] as an evolutionary part of travel,” says a Skyscanner spokeswoman. “We’ve always believed that people would go from click-type-tap style searching to a conversational format. Interestingly, those using our bots treat them in a very ‘human’ way – ask for the bot’s name, send an emoji or sticker of appreciation.”

More investment in AI is a business necessity for hotels, according to Tim Gunstone, managing director of EyeforTravel, who recently spoke [pdf] on the issue at an industry conference. “The cost of search marketing [paid by hotels to online travel agents for sales made] has gone up,” he says. “This is what is driving hoteliers. The industry needs to cut costs and focus on loyalty.”

Gunstone believes AI can boost loyalty by helping hoteliers know more about their customers, in order to better meet their needs and win repeat business.

We will see “technological unemployment”, says Professor Ryan Abbott, professor of law and health sciences at the University of Surrey, but if a chatbot gives hotel recommendations based on reviews and your preferences, rather than plugging a relative’s place, maybe that’s for the best,

“People who have been rendered obsolete by technology have always gone on to find new and better jobs,” he adds. “When machines outperform people in every way, that’s another problem – but that’s a long way in the future.”

Not everyone is predicting the demise of travel agents, and ABTA says many roles in the industry remain unaffected by technological advances. Photograph: Matt Cardy/Getty Images

At the bottom of the travel market, computing is about automation and saving money, but at the top end, AI is being used to personalise experiences – delivered by people. A waiter at a luxury hotel, for instance, could use information on you to predict what kind of drinks you like and recommend something from the menu. Or reception staff, with data on your spa use, might propose a particular service.

But not everyone is predicting the demise of travel agents. A spokesperson for ABTA, which represents UK travel agents and tour operators, says almost a fifth of Brits still booked a holiday in a travel store last year and that although artificial intelligence can help with targeted marketing, “it can be hard to beat the human touch”.

People quickly get frustrated if a chatbot isn’t responding accurately, for a start. “Many roles in the travel industry remain unaffected by technological advances,” adds a spokesperson. “Cooks are needed to cook, beds need to be made, and the personal experience of a destination expert is hard to beat.”

ABTA warns, too, that travel companies need to avoid breaching customers’ privacy when they gather data on them: this is something that AccorHotels makes specific pledges to respect, beyond European legislation, which states that personal data can only be gathered legally under strict conditions and must be protected against misuse.

Gunstone also cautions that regulators could be catching up with computer-based intelligence. “US antitrust laws are on the lookout for AI-created price fixing,” he warns.

Meanwhile, automation won’t work everywhere. Ian Yeoman, visiting professor at the European Tourism Futures Institute, says we won’t see automated hotels until closer to the end of this century, but even then it won’t be worldwide.

“In many third-world destinations, the cost of labour is quite cheap so there’s no incentive for owners and operators to invest,” he says. “You would probably have sabotage and riots. These countries also don’t have a strong technological infrastructure as back up – where you have failure, you could have catastrophic failure.”

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