TORONTO – What you believe is possible for the Toronto Maple Leafs this season depends entirely on how you view the likelihood for improvement.

Nothing about their overall performance to date screams Stanley Cup contender, but we are still nearly three months from the start of the playoffs and five months from crowning a champion.

Mike Babcock has sacrificed style and short-term results by instituting a chip-and-chase system designed to produce success when the games get tighter. It’s an attempt to position his players where the puck is going, rather than where it is today, and it may not work.

Babcock is under no illusions about where his group stands. They are a middling possession team at even strength with nagging questions on their blue line. They score a lot of goals, and give up a lot of goals, despite receiving above average goaltending.

“We’ve got our work to do,” Babcock said earlier this month. “We’re done the first half, we’ve got 48 points and that’s crawling into the playoffs with 96. So if you don’t want to crawl into the playoffs you’ve got to get better.”

That will largely need to come from within. The Leafs aren’t going to be major players ahead of the Feb. 26 trade deadline – with a centre and right-shot defenceman on their wish list, but no desire to expend the considerable futures necessary to land a high-impact player at either position.

It would certainly rank as a surprise if general manager Lou Lamoriello did anything bolder than a year ago, when he surrendered a second-round pick to add Brian Boyle for depth at the deadline.

Sportsnet Today Don't expect the Leafs to swing for the fences at the deadline January 13 2018 Your browser does not support the audio element.



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There’s an internal belief in the organization that they’re well-positioned to finish strong because of a favourable schedule down the stretch – with 37 games spread over 82 days coming out of their bye week, 20 of which will be played at Air Canada Centre.

Contrast that with the scorching hot Boston Bruins, who’ve surged past Toronto for second place in the Atlantic Division. They’ve still got 41 games to play – basically one every other night – and 22 of those come on the road.

Energy shouldn’t be an issue here.

Injuries took a toll on Toronto’s first-half performance, particularly the 10 games Auston Matthews sat out because of a back issue and concussion. Nikita Zaitsev has missed the last 11 games (and counting) with a broken foot and will need at least another week to heal.

Without him, the blue line has seen a rotating cavalcade of pairings behind Morgan Rielly and Ron Hainsey. They could use some stability, and a little less Roman Polak.

Babcock believes the Leafs need to do a better job of controlling the offensive zone – a belief backed up by the fact that they’ve registered just 49.64 per cent of even-strength shot attempts. He’s identified that as an area that can be improved through better execution and attention to detail.

“I think you’ve got to be heavy,” said Babcock. “You’ve got to spend time in the offensive zone. You can’t be one-and-done. In other words, you get the puck to the net, you’ve got to find a way to get it back and stay in there and spend some time.”

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At 53 points, the Leafs are in the exact same position they were through 45 games last season. But a closer look suggests they’ve taken steps forward.

Matthews is scoring at a better rate than he did during a ridiculously productive rookie season and the numbers suggest Rielly has developed into a top-pairing, difference-making defenceman. Frederik Andersen sports a career-best .921 save percentage despite facing more shots than any other NHL goaltender.

The Leafs have the luxury of playing James van Riemsdyk on the third line, and he’s on pace to top 30 goals thanks to strong power-play production. Second liners Nazem Kadri and Patrick Marleau are each projected to score more than 25.

Lest anyone get too carried away with talk of a “sophomore slump” for Mitch Marner and William Nylander, their shooting percentages suggest better days likely lay ahead.

Yes, the ingredients remain in place for this to become the dynamic team many expected it to be. As the players readily admit, it will be a matter of finding the right recipe.

“I think everybody holds each other accountable and we definitely can be a lot better and obviously take a step forward,” Matthews said before the bye week.

In the NHL, so much of success comes down to timing.

We’ve seen teams like the 2015-16 Pittsburgh Penguins go from wayward to world-beaters inside the span of a couple months. Anyone who plays deep into the spring usually has some combination of great goaltending, good injury luck and favourable matchups.

As we sit here in the middle of winter’s deep freeze, Toronto appears headed for a second straight first-round exit. But there’s still more than 11 weeks left in the regular season. That’s a lot of ground still to cover.

“Each week each team brings a new challenge and you just try to keep building your team,” said Babcock.

One day at a time.