How much oil is in Kirkuk?

The area around Kirkuk and the Kurdish region is one of the major oil-producing areas of Iraq. Analysts estimate that the region as a whole produces 750,000 barrels a day, of which around 400,000 comes from fields around Kirkuk that could be caught up in the conflict. The Kurdistan regional government exports about 640,000 barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris, with about 300,000 coming from Kirkuk.

Iraq produces a total of about 4.5 million barrels a day.

Most of the oil exported from the Kirkuk and Kurdistan area goes north, through a pipeline across the border with Turkey, and then to Ceyhan, a Turkish port on the Mediterranean. Turkey has threatened to cut off those exports, although Ankara has taken no action thus far.

Why have oil prices moved higher?

Oil prices recently have become more sensitive to supply threats, such as the situation in Kirkuk.

Strong global demand and the agreement between Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to curb production have tightened the market and helped soak up some of the surplus. That means further reductions because of global crises become more important.

“We have got a cocktail of geopolitical risks that can certainly keep supporting prices and probably — if demand stays strong — contribute to pushing them higher,” said Richard Mallinson, an analyst at Energy Aspects, a market research firm based in London.

What will this do to the cost of gasoline?

Rising crude oil prices have translated into modestly higher prices for consumers. The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the United States is about $2.50, a little less than 10 percent more than a year ago, according to the Energy Information Administration, a government agency.

In Britain, prices for unleaded regular gasoline have risen by about 4 percent to about 544 pence, or about $7.20, per gallon, according to data from the AA, an auto services group. Because of the high tax component in European fuel prices, the prices are less sensitive to fluctuating costs of crude than are gasoline prices in the United States.

There seems a good chance that oil prices will push at least modestly higher over the next few years. Oswald Clint, an analyst at Bernstein Research, said prices of $60 to $70 a barrel, or even higher, were likely.