PX column: Aftab Pureval gaining ground on Steve Chabot, national prognosticator says

The election prediction winds are starting to slightly shift in favor of Democrat Aftab Pureval.

Sabato's Crystal Ball, one of the leading prognosticators of congressional races, has changed its rating of Ohio's 1st Congressional District race to "leans Republican" from "likely Republican."

Pureval, the Hamilton County clerk of Courts, is challenging long-time incumbent Steve Chabot in the November election. The Westwood Republican is seeking a 12th term in Congress, but he has his first serious challenger in nearly a decade.

Politics Extra reached out to Sabato’s Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik to ask why the nonpartisan political newsletter and website tweaked its forecast on the Chabot-Pureval race. Here's are the reasons Kondik provided:

• "The generic midterm disadvantage for Republicans this cycle."

• "The potential for Pureval as a candidate, although he will have to prove himself – and deal with residency attacks, which sometimes resonate." (Pureval moved from Hyde Park into the 1st Congressional District around the same time he launched his campaign in late January.)

• "Chabot’s last fundraising quarter was weak." (Chabot raised $103,317 in the fourth quarter of 2017. Pureval raised $130,000 in the 24 hours after he launched his campaign.)

• "Past Democratic success in a positive national environment on some of this turf." (Steve Driehaus is the only Democrat to defeat Chabot in the Republican's previous 12 races. Driehaus won in 2008, when Barack Obama first ran for president.)

That said, Pureval still faces a monumental challenge in a red-leaning district that spans western Hamilton County and all of Warren County.

"It’s also important to note that we still have Chabot as a favorite," Kondik said. "This district was drawn to elect a Republican."

Politics Extra is a column looking inside Greater Cincinnati and Ohio politics. Follow Enquirer political columnist Jason Williams on Twitter @jwilliamscincy.