In which the author puts on his Republican consultant’s tie, serves up some unsolicited advice to the former front-runner, and notes that, if any of this should prove useful, his Swiss bank account number is available upon request.

Dear Mitt,

This is it.

After running for the Presidency for almost six years, it comes down to this. If you don’t turn things around in Michigan over the next few days, chance are you’ll never make it to the Oval Office, or even to Tampa. All those Washington bigshots who’ve been acting nice to you over the past few months—they’ll be out of here like rats scurrying from a burning building.

Let’s be honest: we’ve known from the start that your support is soft. Today’s G.O.P. was never going to embrace a former governor of Massachusetts who supported gay rights and access to abortion, and who introduced the principle of universal health care to the United States. Our entire campaign has been based on persuading the Republican grass roots to take you on sufferance as the man who can create jobs and beat Obama.

Lord knows the economy hasn’t been doing us any favors. With unemployment falling by the month, and the Dow hitting thirteen thousand, one of our high trumps has already been taken away from us. Now comes this! If you can’t win the state you grew up in, the state where your Pop, God rest his soul, was the governor, the electability argument will be gone, too. And without that, you can’t win.

That’s the bad news.

The good news is that you’re not finished yet—not by a long way. You’re a better campaigner than many of the talking heads are giving you credit for, especially when your back is against the wall. And Santorum is still Santorum: the guy who lost his home state by eighteen points in 2006. He didn’t turn into Ronald Reagan overnight. Plus, we’ve got the money, which is just about to hit him.

The national polls are looking pretty dismal, to be sure, but that’s largely because Santorum is getting so much free media. For more than a week now, he’s been the big story. In Michigan, things aren’t as bleak for us as some reports are saying. It looks like the poll from a week ago that showed Santorum leading by fifteen was a rogue. More recent polls show it’s pretty close. My guess is that, six days out, you and he are running about level.

That isn’t so bad. Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida showed that what really matters is who’s got the momentum going into the final weekend. That’s why tonight’s debate is so crucial. For the first time since Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri, it gives you the chance to swing the narrative away from Santorum. Now you’re the underdog, and he’s the one with the high expectations.

If you can turn this thing around, and I think you can, we can come roaring out of Michigan and Arizona as “The Comeback Kid”—our friend Bill Schuette, the Michigan Attorney General, is already calling you that—then do better than expected on Super Tuesday, although we’d probably still take a few knocks in the South, and move on. The rumors about Rove and Malek parachuting Jeb Bush or Chris Christie into the race will go away, and you’ll be in great shape. The God Squad and Teabaggers are never going to love us, but once it’s you versus Obama instead of you versus Gingrich, or you versus Santorum, they’ll fall in line. (What choice do they have?)

That’s the big picture. Now a few pointers for tonight’s debate:

Go easy on trying to persuade people you’re an authentic conservative. It’s lipstick on a pig. The folks out there aren’t stupid. (Well, some of them are, but even they don’t like to be taken for fools.) Better to say something like: “Of course I’m not a movement conservative. I’m not a movement moderate, or a movement anything. I’m a businessman—someone who gets things done. But I’ve got conservative instincts, I come from a devoutly religious background, and I can promise you that if I make it to the Oval Office I won’t disappoint you: I’ll slim down the government, hold the line on taxes, appoint conservative judges, build up America’s armed forces, and do all I can to restore old-fashioned American values.”

Criticizing Santorum is good. When you went after Newt in Florida, it made you look tough and Presidential. But be a bit careful. Santorum isn’t Gingrich. Our argument isn’t that he’s a crazy, unreliable, and corrupt megalomaniac: it’s that he could never be President. Leave the rough stuff to the Super PAC. It’ll be all over the airwaves saying Santorum’s a phony—a sellout corporate lobbyist who has spent so long in Washington hanging out with rich lobbyists he’d barely know his way back to that steel town he comes from.

As I just said, our line on Santorum is that he’s not a leader —he’s never run anything—and he can’t win. Your job is to point this out and get him rattled. So far, he’s kept his calm pretty well, but we all know he’s got a temper. So hit him with specifics, and make sure you get them right. Whatever you do, don’t bring up that goddamn polar-bear exhibit at the Pittsburgh Zoo that he put in an earmark for. People love polar bears!

Keep working in the Mormon angle —it’s a good counter to Santorum’s story that he’s got a direct line to Jesus Christ. When you said yesterday that your religious background means you know all about the importance of religious tolerance and religious freedom, and that if you become President you’d make sure the federal government never again attacks them, it worked really well. Sure, some of the Evangelicals won’t like being reminded you’re a Mormon, but they don’t vote for you anyway. For everybody else, it’s a reminder that you are a religious family man. That’s all to your benefit.

Stop giving the impression you were in favor of letting G.M. and Chrysler go bust. The average Republican voter doesn’t know what “managed bankruptcy” means. He thinks you wanted to bail out your slimy pals at Goldman Sachs and let the hard-working folks in the heartland go to hell. If you have to say anything, say you supported a private-sector auto bailout. People won’t know what that means either, but it sounds better.

Loosen up a bit, and think back to the debates in September, October, and November. Back then, you came across as smart, well informed, and relaxed—Presidential even. Sure, the stakes are higher now, but it’s still the same game, and you know how to play it.

Go get ‘em, tiger. This time next week, you’ll be Mr. Inevitable again. I just know it.

Your old pal,

J.C.

Photograph: Bill Pugliano/Getty