With the elections to 58 seats across 16 States, the Congress’s strength may come down to 48 from the current 57

With the Election Commission on Friday announcing dates for elections to 58 Rajya Sabha seats in 16 States, the National Democratic Alliance can look forward to a more comfortable position in the Upper House from April, though it will still not have a majority.

In January, the BJP became the single largest party in the Rajya Sabha with 58 seats, pushing the Congress to the second position by one seat.

U.P. factor

In the April elections, the BJP will gain significantly from Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Haryana, Jharkhand and Uttarakhand, and maintain its position in Madhya Pradesh.

The party hopes to offset the losses from Bihar (one seat) and Gujarat (two seats) from the whopping eight out of 10 seats that it gains from Uttar Pradesh and one seat from Uttarakhand. The Congress’s individual tally, on the other hand, will come down to 48 from the current 57 and together with its allies, from 72 to 63.

The polls to the Upper House from Uttar Pradesh will be important as it will test the strength of what have just remained talks of Opposition unity, even an alliance of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party.

Of the 10 seats, eight will go to the BJP and and one to the SP. The third seat could go the Opposition’s way if the SP, the BSP and the Congress pool their votes. “That doesn’t seem to be on the horizon now,” a Congress source said.

Bihar test

On the whole, sources say, the BJP may gain 10 to 11 seats in this round of polling. The uncertainty in the total gains to be made by the BJP stems from the fact that of the six seats in Bihar, the Janata Dal(U) will win two and the BJP one, while the Rashtriya Janata Dal will get two. The remaining one seat will be open to contest. “If the Congress and the RJD decide to strike a deal, the Congress could win this seat. If the Congress splits due to its internal dynamics, then the NDA will make a bid for the seat,” a Janata Dal(U) source said.

Nominated category

The other reason that can take the NDA’s tally beyond 70 in 2018 is that four vacancies will arise in the nominated category: three in April and one in July.

Of the total 12 nominated members now, seven have been nominated by the current government. Four of them have declared their allegiance to the BJP.

The Congress, on the other hand, while gaining two seats from Gujarat and two from Karnataka, will lose an overall nine seats.

The NDA will gain from the polls in Andhra Pradesh, as two of the three seats going to the polls were earlier held by the Congress and will now be in the Telugu Desam Party kitty.

The third seat will possibly go to the YSR Congress Party.

The addition of the Janata Dal(U), with its 10 seats in the Rajya Sabha, to the NDA ranks has greatly increased the government’s comfort level in the Upper House where the Opposition has enjoyed a majority. With the April round of voting, the ruling party hopes to increase the comfort factor more.