Birmingham Bowl: Boston College vs Cincinnati

Betting Line: Cincinnati -7

Over/Under: 55.5

Boston College had a pretty up and down season that ended with them securing bowl eligibility in their season finale but also firing head coach Steve Addazio after. The Eagles were hit with some tough news when running back AJ Dillon announced that he will sit out this game to prepare for the draft. Dillon is a larger back at 250 pounds and his ability to fight through tackles and keep his legs churning has been huge for Boston College. In Dillon’s absence, backup David Bailey will be the lead back. Bailey is a similar build to Dillon and has ran for 840 yards this season, but is a definite step down. He will need to step up in this game as the Eagles will still be with a backup quarterback. After a season ending injury to starter Anthony Brown, Dennis Grosel has taken the reigns. Grosel has had some success on the ground, but he has completed less than 50% of his passes. He will need to at least pose a threat against a very good Cincinnati defense of the Eagles want to have success offensively. Kobay White is a solid receiver and he can help out the passing game by creating separation. On defense, the Eagles should really sell out to stop the run. Cincinnati leans hard on the run game, but their offensive line is something I think Boston College can exploit. Linebacker Max Richardson has been making plays all over the field for the Eagles, leading the team in tackles with 107 and tackles for loss with 14. Richardson will be a key player in this game and will need to make some plays in run pursuit. Defensive ends Marcus Valdez and Richard Yeargrin need to prevent long runs to the outside and TJ Rayam needs to plug up the middle. Cincinnati is pretty reliant on the run game and has a bit of a methodical offense. Forcing them into passing situations and playing well on third downs will be keys for the Eagles.

Cincinnati could not get the job done in the AAC Championship against Memphis, but I still think this 10-3 season has been a hard one for Bearcats fans to be too upset about. Luke Fickell has really turned around this program and I am interested to see what they will do in the future. Like last season, Cincinnati is built around a strong defense. Safety Ja’Von Hicks will be a player to watch as he has five interceptions this season and four fumble recoveries. When playing against an inexperienced quarterback and running back, I think Hicks will be in prime position to create turnovers. This will be especially helpful in a game where both teams are more powerful run teams that can bleed clock. Since Boston College is more of a power run team, Cincinnati needs to swarm the ball and have multiple people in position to make the tackle against a bigger running back. On offense, Cincinnati is mostly reliant on their run game. Running back Michael Warren II has seen his numbers drop a little from last season, but he still has 1,160 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. Gerrid Doaks is solid as a secondary back and quarterback Desmond Ridder also is a strong dual threat. The Bearcats should work to stay ahead of the chains on offense and do well in run blocking. Warren is more of a power back and I think the Bearcats will do well if they can win in trenches. While Ridder is a solid runner at quarterback, his passing stats leave a bit to be desired. I think one way he can be effective and have things a bit easier for him through the air will be on play action. I also think that it would be beneficial for him to establish himself in the run game early and force Boston College to run to him on scrambles.

Prediction:

Cincinnati takes advantage of a beat up Boston College team with an interim coach and wins 27-17.

Gator Bowl: Indiana vs Tennessee

Betting Line: Tennessee -2.5

Over/Under: 54.5

Indiana capped off a successful regular season win with a win over rival Purdue that was close, but still had to feel good after dropping two straight to them. Indiana is led offensively by a strong passing game. Peyton Ramsey might have been the backup quarterback going into the season, but he has looked good after an injury to the starter. Ramsey has completed 69% of his passes and has a touchdown to interception ratio of 13/4 and six rushing touchdowns to boast. The Hoosiers will be in a good spot this game if Ramsey stays accurate with the ball and continues to be a threat on the ground. One concern for Indiana is that starting running back Stevie Scott is listed as questionable for the game with a leg injury. Scott has battled injuries a bit this season but still leads the team with 845 rushing yards and is also a solid receiver out of the backfield. With a hampered running back, Ramsey will need to make more happen himself. Backup back Sampson James also needs to be ready to go, even if Scott is healthy. Whop Philyor has been a consistently solid receiving target for Ramsey and a big game from him will be huge. I also think tight end Peyton Hendershot needs to emerge as a checkdown option. On defense, the Hoosiers need to do well in coverage against Tennessee’s Jauan Jennings. Jennings has come up big for Tennessee this season and covering him will be no easy task. I suspect the job of covering Jennings will fall to Tiawan Mullen. Mullen will need to hold his own against Tennessee’s clear go to guy and if he does well, it is going to make things much tougher for Tennessee’s offense. Tennessee also is a bit of a turnover prone team and I think that forcing turnovers will be another way for Indiana to find success. I think turnovers can be forced by creating chaos in the backfield and getting penetration at the defensive line. Defensive tackles Jerome Johnson and Demarcus Elliott make their fair share of big plays as interior linemen and I think if they can get a pass rush, it can force more bad throws and thus, interceptions.

Tennessee’s turnaround this season has been quite impressive. The Volunteers has two embarrassing early season losses and started the season 2-5, but rallied to win five consecutive games to finish 7-5 and bowl eligible for the first time since 2016. One big reason for this season’s turnaround has been the improvement of quarterback Jarrett Guarantano. Guarantano had high expectations this season and while he looked shaky in the first half of the season, he really upped his game down the stretch. He will also need to keep up that form in the first half as star receiver Jauan Jennings will be suspended for the first half due to a flagrant personal foul against Vanderbilt in the regular season finale. Without his top receiver, Guarantano will need to be on the mark with his passes and really have good field vision. Marquez Callaway also needs to step up as the main target without Jennings. At running back, the Volunteers have a bit of mystery as to who the primary back will be. Ty Chandler and Tim Jordan have been the top two backs all season and have had solid but not great results. Where mystery arose is when you add in the fact that true freshman Eric Gray ran for 246 yards against Vanderbilt in a true breakout performance. I expect Gray will get more carries, but that they will still have a relatively split backfield between the three. Regardless of who gets the most carries, I think they need to have some traction in the run game and keep Indiana’s defense balanced. Defensively, I am a bit concerned about how the Volunteers will slow down Indiana’s passing game. Top cornerback Bryce Thompson is listed as questionable with a knee injury and even if he plays, it will be tougher for him to keep up with his assignments and break on the ball well. Thankfully for Tennessee, I think safety Nigel Warrior has done well in pass coverage and can provide some help over the top. Warrior has picked off a team leading four passes and is third on the team in tackles. Tennessee also should employ a quarterback spy against Indiana’s Peyton Ramsey as he is effective on the ground. There are a variety of players that could play that role, but whoever does needs to prevent Ramsey from being effective scrambling.

Prediction:

Indiana proves to be too much for Tennessee and wins 31-28.

Idaho Potato Bowl: Ohio vs Nevada

Betting Line: Nevada +8.5

Over/Under: 58.5

Ohio secured bowl eligibility in the last game of the season with a blowout win over in state rival Akron. The Bobcats are once again led on offense by quarterback Nathan Rourke. Rourke has thrown for 2,676 yards and 20 touchdowns on 8.6 yards per attempt. While his 780 rushing yards are down from last season, it is only because he has evolved as a passer, and still those are impressive rushing numbers coming from a quarterback. Rourke will have a prime opportunity to shine in this game against a faulty Nevada pass defense. He will need to take that opportunity if Ohio really wants to have success. Running back O’Shaan Allison needs to be a contributor as well and force Nevada’s defense to put focus onto someone besides Rourke. On defense, the Bobcats will be facing an offense with some mild quarterback issues. Nevada has never truly felt comfortable with a starting quarterback all season and I think that Ohio should be able to really force Nevada to struggle through the air. Ohio is alright in pass defense, but they only have five interceptions in total this season. Still, I think that by maintaining tight coverage, the Bobcats will be set up nicely. Covering Nevada receiver Elijah Cooks could prove to be a problem though. Cooks is 6’4” and neither starting cornerback for Ohio even reaches 6’0”. Ilyaas Motley and Marlin Brooks need to stay tight in coverage on Cooks and break on the ball well. Ohio does not really generate very many negative plays on defense and I think that they should try and work on that more in this game as well.

Nevada had a disappointing end to their regular season as they lost the Fremont Trophy to rival UNLV (who was using an interim head coach after their head coach was fired) in double overtime. Despite the loss, the Wolfpack still are in a bowl game for the second straight season under head coach Jay Norvell after a two year absence. Nevada’s strength this season is likely their run defense. A big reason for that being their strength is defensive end Dom Peterson who has 13.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks despite missing time with an injury. Peterson has size for a defensive end, but is still athletic enough to get after the quarterback, creating a tough matchup for opposing offensive lines. The Wolfpack will need Peterson to do well this game as Ohio quarterback Nathan Rourke will be a tough player to defend. It might be a bit tough in Nevada’s 3-3-5 defense, but using a spy on Rourke would be a good idea as well as he is a good dual threat who leads Ohio in rushing touchdowns. Nevada is also a bit weaker in pass defense, and needs to step their performance up against a successful passing team. If Nevada wants a shot in this game, their pass defense must improve. On offense, the Wolfpack need quarterback Carson Strong to be more of a threat. Strong completes 63% of his passes, but averages less than six yards per attempt and has a touchdown to interception ratio of 10/7. Strong needs to be able to challenge Ohio’s defense more and go beyond a dink and dunk passing game. Strong can be helped out by a good game from receiver Elijah Cooks. Cooks is more of a possession receiver and if he can get contested catches on 50/50 passes, it will be huge for the offense. Running back Toa Taua needs to be effective both running the ball and a checkdown option as a receiver out of the backfield.

Prediction:

Ohio brings home another winning season with a 35-21.

Armed Forces Bowl: Southern Miss vs Tulane

Betting Line: Tulane -7

Over/Under: 56.5

Southern Miss fans have to feel good to get into a bowl game this season after missing out last season despite getting six wins. The Golden Eagles are led on offense by a strong passing game. Quarterback Jack Abraham is a bit of a gunslinger but obviously that yields some great results at times. Abraham has completed 67% of his passes for 3,329 yards on 8.7 yards per attempt this season but has a shaky touchdown to interception ratio of 18/15. Abraham needs to take care of the ball in this game. Tulane plays a more run oriented offense and can definitely limit possessions. Any turnover could prove to be costly for the Golden Eagles. Lead receivers Quez Watkins and Tim Jones need to come up big as well and if they can get open, it will give fewer chances for Abraham to turn over the ball. Running back Kevin Perkins needs to do well in keeping Tulane’s defense balanced. De’Michael Harris is an athlete that could definitely change the game with any touch of the ball. Harris is listed as a receiver and has some pass catching ability but leads the team in rushing yards as well. Unfortunately, Harris is listed as questionable for the game with what is being described as an upper body injury. If Harris does play, I think Southern Miss should try to get him involved early. If not, Perkins needs to step up in his absence. On defense, the Golden Eagles need to be ready for Tulane’s spread option scheme. Playing against an option based offense requires good pursuit and discipline and that is across the entire defense, not just one part. Safeties Ky’El Hemby and DQ Thomas lead the team in tackles and will need to be able to step up and make some plays from their spots. Defensive tackles Delmond Landry and Demarrio Smith need to be able to hold their spots well as Tulane also runs a lot of inside zones. Defensive end Jacques Turner is the best playmaker on the defensive line and he will be looked to as someone who can play the role of a disruptor. The secondary also needs to be ready for the passing game and not bite on play action.

For the second straight season, Tulane is bowl eligible. It took a bit, but head coach Willie Fritz has really improved this team and looks to continue the upward trajectory. One way Fritz has found success is by installing the same spread option scheme he ran during his time at Georgia Southern. While the Green Wave are always in shotgun, the run a lot of zone reads and triple option plays, but have the flexibility to pass effectively out of their base formation. Quarterback Justin McMillan commands the offense well and fits the mold of their scheme well. McMillan, a transfer from LSU, leads the team in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns and is also able to pose as a threat through the air. While his 10 interceptions are not ideal, it is still good that he can take downfield shots when needed and it has allowed Tulane to expand their passing game more. This game, like many others, will require McMillan to play smart and make the correct reads. He also needs to make Southern Miss fear the pass enough to not sell out against the run. Darius Bradwell and Corey Dauphine, Tulane’s top two running backs, are both listed as questionable for this game. Bradwell has a foot injury and Dauphine has a wrist injury. The Green Wave will need them to contribute and put less pressure on McMillan if they play, and they also need third string running back Stephon Huderson and slotback Amare Jones to be ready to have an increased workload just in case. On defense, the Green Wave need to keep tight pass coverage. Southern Miss is a team that is not more reliant on the passing game. With that being said, I think coverage is the most important part of this when you take into account Southern Miss’s higher amount of interceptions thrown. Cornerbacks Thakarius Keyes and Jaylon Monroe will be key players in keeping with their assignments and preventing the big play. Southern Miss also takes their fair share of home run swings so safeties PJ Hall and Larry Brooks who each have multiple interceptions will be key players in coverage as well over the top. Southern Miss rarely uses their run game, and I think that forcing them to run to run the ball will yield good results.

Prediction:

Tulane eventually pulls away and wins 38-27.

LendingTree Bowl: Louisiana vs Miami Ohio

Betting Line: Miami Ohio +14

Over/Under: 55.5

Louisiana fell short against Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Championship, but I still think a 10-3 regular season was a successful one for the Ragin Cajuns under head coach Billy Napier. Louisiana is led this season by a strong pass defense. I think that this is a good matchup for the Ragin Cajuns as they might be able to take advantage of Miami Ohio’s high risk passing game. Their quarterback completed just 53% of his passes, but the team ranks near the top of the country in passing yards per completion. Cornerbacks, Asjlin Washington, Eric Garror, and Michael Jacquet can prevent these big plays by sticking with their assignment and not get burnt in coverage. While this is secondary to avoiding big plays, I also think that keeping tight coverage could lead to more opportunities for interceptions. The Ragin Cajuns could also hamper Miami Ohio’s passing game by getting a good pass rush. Linebackers Joe Dillon and Kris Moncrief lead the team in sacks and if they can keep up that solid play and get into the backfield, it will create chaos and force more I’ll advised throws. On offense, I think Louisiana will have success running behind a very good offensive line. The Ragin Cajuns allow the third fewest tackles for loss in the country and do very well in paving the way on the ground. Elijah Mitchell leads the team with 1,092 rushing yards but Raymond Calais and Trey Rags are close behind with 882 and 781 yards respectively. I think pounding the ball with that trio will yield great results for the Ragin Cajuns if the running backs do their part. Calais is the best home run threat of the three and him ripping off a longer run would also be huge. Quarterback Levi Lewis does his job well in that he takes care of the ball and is able to take downfield shots enough to keep opposing defenses balanced. If he can accomplish those tasks in this game, Louisiana will be hard to stop.

Miami Ohio capped off their regular season with a win over Central Michigan, which won them their first MAC Championship since 2010. On offense, the RedHawks are a bit more of a run heavy team. Running back Jaylon Bester leads the way with Tyre Shelton as a solid secondary back behind him. One thing that does hamper their run game is their offensive line’s inconsistent run blocking as they allow quite a few negative plays. In this game, the offensive line needs to hold up better, and give the running backs a better chance to move the ball. Freshman quarterback Brett Gabbert, younger brother of Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Blaine Gabbert, goes for big plays often, but only completes 53% of his passes and has a touchdown to interception ratio of 11/8. If the RedHawks want to be successful offensively, Gabbert needs to be more consistent and limit errant throws. Gabbert spreads the ball around well, but o think the emergence of one receiver would also be helpful. On defense, the RedHawks need to break through a very strong Louisiana offensive line. Defensive end Kameron Butler and defensive tackle Doug Costin lead the team in tackles for loss and need to be able to get some penetration and disrupt Louisiana’s strong rushing attack. Another player that intrigued me is linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. who only has appeared in six games, but has 7.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks. Six of those sacks happened in one game and I am wondering how Miami Ohio can try to make something similar happen again. Nickel back Travion Banks is strong in pass coverage with five interceptions, and he will also need a good game to prevent big plays through the air, something Louisiana often produces.

Prediction:

Louisiana’s offense proves to be too much as they win 38-21.

To be notified when I post, follow my Instagram @impassionedsportsnerd.

Share this: Twitter

Facebook

Like this: Like Loading...