Colorado Governor 2018 Democratic Primary Election Survey Release

Today Magellan Strategies released the findings of a voter opinion survey of 503 Democratic and unaffiliated voters who are likely to vote in the 2018 Colorado Democratic primary election. The interviews were conducted from May 30th and 31st, 2018. The interviews were conducted using live interviewers calling landline and cell phone sample. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval. The survey results were slightly weighted to reflect the demographics of past Democratic primary elections in Colorado. Survey Findings

Our latest survey of likely Democratic primary voters in Colorado finds Congressman Jared Polis opening up a 13-point lead over his closest opponent, former State Treasurer Cary Kennedy, 31% to 18% respectively. Former State Senator Mike Johnston has 9% support, Lt. Governor Donna Lynne has 3% support and 39% of voters are undecided. Since our March 20th survey, there has been no change in the order of candidate preference, and very little change in support levels for Mike Johnston, Donna Lynne and the percentage of undecided voters. What has changed since our last survey is a 5-point decline in support for Cary Kennedy and a 4-point increase in support for Jared Polis. In reviewing the shifts in voter support for Jared Polis and Cary Kennedy from March until now by voter subgroup, we can get a sense of how Democratic primary voters are viewing the contest. Jared Polis Change in Voter Support Since Late March

Since March, Jared Polis has made measurable gains in support among female voters (6 points), Democrats (7 points), Hispanic and Latino voters (15 points) and self-identified very liberal voters (13 points). The survey also measured a 14-point decrease in support among unaffiliated voters, declining from 30% to 16%. However, we do caution that this finding is based on a sample of 72 unaffiliated respondents, and has a margin of error of +/- 13%.

Cary Kennedy Change in Voter Support Since Late March

The most significant declines in support for Cary Kennedy have been among female voters (8 points) and Democrats (7 points). The survey also measured a 23-point decline in support among Hispanic and Latino voters. Again, we caution readers of this research that the finding is based on a sample of 86 Hispanic respondents and has a margin of error of +/- 10.6%.

However, it is very possible the Polis Campaign (with their significant financial resources) have been targeting likely Hispanic and Latino voters, and the survey is picking up movement toward Jared Polis and away from Cary Kennedy. Another data point supporting this theory is a 19-point increase in the percentage of Hispanic and Latino voters that have a favorable opinion of Jared Polis since March.

Colorado Governor Democratic Primary Candidate Image Ratings

Jared Polis currently is the most well liked and well known of the four Democratic candidates for Governor. Among all respondents, 56% have a favorable opinion of him and only 5% having an unfavorable opinion of him. Twenty-one percent of respondents have heard of him but do not have an opinion of him, and 18% have never heard of him. Cary Kennedy also has a very good image rating, with 45% of respondents having a favorable opinion of her, and only 4% having an unfavorable opinion of her. She is less well known than Jared Polis, with 28% having never heard of her compared to 18% for Jared Polis.

One observation of the candidate image ratings that stands out to us is the remarkable fact that not a single Democratic candidate for Governor has an unfavorable rating above 5%. We attribute this finding to the four candidates committing and adhering to the Colorado Democratic Party’s “Clean Campaign Pledge Program”.

This pledge without question will make it more difficult for Cary Kennedy or Mike Johnston to gain ground on Jared Polis. However, based on our post-election research of Colorado swing voters over the years, this policy will very likely improve the Democratic nominee’s position to win this November.

Conclusion

Jared Polis currently leads Cary Kennedy by 13 points, with 31% to 18% respectively. The findings of this survey compared to our March Democratic primary survey show a 5-point decrease in support for Cary Kennedy and a 4-point increase in support for Jared Polis. There has been little change in support levels for the other Democratic candidates for Governor and 39% of likely voters are undecided.

In our view, prior to the release of our March survey many political observers would have thought a 13-point lead for Jared Polis over Cary Kennedy “made sense”. With Jared Polis’s financial resources, and his solid standing among likely Democrat primary voters, the primary was for him to lose. Based on the findings of this survey, and if Cary Kennedy and the other candidates adhere to the Colorado Democratic Party’s “Clean Campaign Pledge Program,” a Jared Polis victory is more likely to happen. We shall see.

Our Weighting Methodology for This Survey

We have made every effort to properly forecast the demographics of the Democrat primary voter turnout expected on Election Day, June 26th. To accurately project what the demographics (age, gender, party, race) on Election Day will be, we use an approach that aggregates past Democratic primary voter data from our Colorado voter file. A table showing our approach is included in this document.

Survey Commissioned By

This survey was fielded and partially paid for by a Magellan Strategies client. We and the client are not working for or with any candidates, individuals or independent expenditure committees with an interest in the 2018 Colorado Democrat primary for Governor. For any questions regarding the survey findings or methodology, please contact David Flaherty by contacting our office at 303-861-8585 or by email at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com.

Survey Sample

The survey sample was randomly drawn from a Colorado voter file among households containing at least one registered Democrat or unaffiliated voter. The survey topline and crosstab results are included in this document. A survey presentation is also available on our website at www.MagellanStrategies.com.

About Magellan Strategies

Magellan Strategies is a national full-service voter opinion polling and survey research firm. We have provided polling services to Republican candidates, ballot issue campaigns, government relation firms, trade associations, and local governments since 2006. We also offer voter data mining, voter data analysis and campaign consulting services. Our office is in Louisville, Colorado. To learn more about our company please visit http://www.MagellanStrategies.com or call 303-861-8585.