On Monday, September 28th, the Banned and Restricted update was released and nothing changed in Pauper. My feelings on the health of the format are well documented. The fact is Pauper is that Cloud of Faeries remains legal and that regardless of how some people feel I lack Wanda Maximoff’s reality warping powers. In the wake of the announcement a number of thoughts came to mind. Here are some of my initial musings on the immediate future of the format.



Red Decks



Currently it appears that the Philosophy of Fire is a dominant strategy in Pauper. I do not mean to say that Burn is the best deck. Rather decks that are wholly focused on targeting a non-replenishing resource are at the top.

The basic tenet of the Philosophy of Fire is that the goal is to eliminate a finite total. While the most common application of this theory is life total it also applies to cards in library and Poison counters. Looking at some of the best decks in the format - Affinity, Esper Combo, Izzet Blitz - and some second tier options - Burn, Hexproof- we can start to see that Pauper is played with countdown timer.



Why is this the case? Part of it is the weight of history. Given the extensive history of the format these decks have access to the best option, often indicated by mana cost. Look at a typical Izzet Blitz deck. These lists have the ability the dig into the rich history of cheap spells to help power Nivix Cyclops and Kiln Fiend. Similarly Hexproof can select every cheap aura to help make Slippery Bogle a frightening monster.



Perhaps the most interesting thing about this focus on fire is how it has shifted other strategies. Mono-Black Control, still the preeminent board control deck in the format, has adopted elements of the Philosophy of Fire. Gray Merchant of Asphodel provides a secondary angle of attack. In the past MBC would try to win via attrition. Now it builds a board presence while assaulting opposing resources all the while accruing black mana symbols until bam - Gary comes to town. The addition of an over the top way to Fireball has pushed MBC to another level.

The fact that many decks are focused on life total makes lifegain and preventative measures strong sideboard options. Not that Fog is a backbreaking effect, but Gnaw to the Bone, Lone Missionary, and Feed the Clan all appear in sideboards and make perfect sense, provided the right matchups show up.

Avoid Bad Matchups



Pauper is wide open. While the very best decks approach 15% of the metagame, that is still only two distinct archetypes- Delver and Esper Combo. Both Mono-Black Control and Stompy hover around 10%, which means that there is 50% of the format out there that aren’t these four decks. It therefore makes sense to prepare to face these different strategies.



But what about Affinity? Or Kuldotha Boros? What if you come prepared to fight them and the decks you face are Hexproof and Dimir Teachings?



Sideboarding is incredibly important in Pauper as the extra cards can turn a terrible matchup even and turn an even matchup favorable. The confounding part is sometimes you can have the right sideboard cards and never face the right pairing. Gorilla Shaman is a killer against Affinity and yet one can play three rounds and never face the machine.



Therefore, taking the long view in Pauper is probably the best. Preparing for the best decks and deciding which of the Other 50% is problematic is vital to assuring a positive win percentage in the long term. Winning one event is great, but keeping a win record in the black over the course of a week or a month or longer comes down to making smart decisions in sideboarding and trying to predict a metagame.



About that - Pauper is nearly impossible to predict. While the metagame is largely stable there is no knowing what one could face on a given day. That is part of why looking long term may be the better perspective.



Interacting



What is the best way to fight an opponent’s board? I love cheap interaction - Disfigure and Lightning Bolt - but I’d really like to see Snuff Out get more play. Now there are multiple problems with this - the four life is quite impactful in a format packed with aggressive decks and the non-black rider matters quite a bit with Gurmag Angler running around.



I ponder, loudly, if Clutch of Currents can make waves. Vapor Snag sees play at least in part because it is so cheap. However Vapor Snag matters less as the game goes long since the mana investment in the returned creature is more easily recouped on turn six or seven. Now, compare this to the slower Clutch. Sure, the creature comes back down, but at least Clutch of Currents leaves behind a 3/3 creature. I am not sure if this is enough to push the card into the strata of Heavily Played, but it should get some love.



I also am a little surprised that Gut Shot has not seen more play. This may have more to do with the fact that Delver, while still popular, has had a few down weeks (and has been less popular since the move to three round events). The card retains utility in other matchups but not nearly as much.



The Big Picture



Pauper recently got great news. In the upcoming round of event updates Pauper will get additional three round Daily Events, eight person queues, and is next in line after Modern to get a constructed league. This is all excellent news as it shows that Wizards is invested in Pauper succeeding as a format. Pauper remains popular enough to fill events and these offerings should demonstrate that to the community.



At the same time, the reasoning for not returning four round events to Pauper is tied to the fact that the format of commons is still viewed as an entry way to constructed Magic. Because of this the desire is to keep the entry cost low, which means sticking to three round Swiss events for the time being.



Is this also a good thing? I’m less sure. The hardcore grinders have drifted away from Pauper, giving the format a slightly different texture and allowing fringe decks a chance to make their way into the spotlight. At the same time if Pauper is viewed as a stepping stone it exists in relation to other formats and less as a freestanding entity.



Now it is entirely possible I am reading too much into a few statements. Similar things have been said before and Pauper has survived. Which leads me directly into...



Battle for Zendikar



The set continues to interest me. However I do not think it is going to hit the format like an avalanche. Rather the set is full of useful tools. This is a fairly drastic change from Khans of Tarkir block which warped the format with Treasure Cruise and, to a lesser extent, Gurmag Angler. The enters-the-battlefield tapped lands from Khans block also provided a much needed addition to the format.

Battle for Zendikar does not have any card that jumps out and screams “break me.” Instead it appears to have plenty of niche cards that may prove useful. Perhaps this is just Wizards recalibrating to a two-set block structure or reacting to a powerful tri-color set. All the same, I hope that I am wrong and we see Makindi Sliderunners attacking for three on a regular basis.



Next week I’ll be diving into what the Magic Origins season looked like and then we all get to return to Zendikar. As always, I can’t wait to get my hands on the new cards.



Keep slingin’ commons-

-Alex



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