Story highlights Doug Sosnik says Clinton has an advantage due to the belief Trump isn't qualified

Democrats retain their edge in the Electoral College, Sosnik says

Debates rarely alter the dynamics of an election, he says

Doug Sosnik, who served as a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton for six years, is a Democratic strategist. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his.

(CNN) If you tune into the news these days it would be easy to conclude that the presidential race is too close to call and that it's all going to come down to what happens in the debates that start Monday. But that would be missing the point. The fact is that the likely outcome of this election was set in the spring and nothing major has changed since then to alter it.

It's true that the debates will be significant, if for no other reason because they are the only "main events" left in the campaign. But it's also true that they aren't likely to substantially impact the presidential election outcome. The last time a presidential debate tipped an election was in 1976 when President Ford mistakenly asserted that there was no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe. That mistake stalled the momentum that he had been building up until that point against Jimmy Carter. And even when candidates have dominated presidential debates -- like Mitt Romney did in 2012 -- it hasn't translated into much on Election Day. Romney still lost by four points.

Heading into the first debate, even Hillary Clinton's most ardent supporters would admit that she has had a rough couple of weeks with the polls tightening. However, the basic structure and fundamentals of the race haven't changed since early spring, and they are unlikely to do so in the remaining 43 days of the election. The fact remains that an overwhelming number of Americans don't think Donald Trump is qualified to become president of the United States.

An overwhelming number of Americans don't think Donald Trump is qualified to become president of the United States. Doug Sosnik

Throughout the campaign Clinton has maintained a narrow but consistent lead in national polls and in key swing states. Clinton's lead widened following her nearly flawless political convention and Trump's chaotic August. Her recent drop in the polls is merely a return to the previous levels established earlier in the year.

Clinton also continues to enjoy an even bigger advantage in amassing the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the election. Since 1992, Democrats have had a significant structural advantage in the Electoral College and 2016 looks to be no different.

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