Fitch unit says 'core view' is that Duterte will remain president until 2022

MANILA, Philippines — A “political gridlock” may erupt in the event that President Rodrigo Duterte prematurely ends his term due to poor health, analysts at Fitch Solutions warned Monday, adding that policy continuity could take a hit under such a scenario.

Duterte, now 74, is the oldest Filipino to be elected president. He is already halfway through his six-year term.

However, issues about his health continue to hound the hugely popular Duterte’s presidency after he missed several summits and meetings in the past due to ill health or tiredness.

Although Duterte has been candid about his health problems, the Palace has assured the public that he is not seriously ill. Presidential spokesperson Salvador Panelo has described his boss as being "strong as a horse or as a carabao."

In a research note, Fitch Solutions said should Duterte cede power early and Vice President Leni Robredo, a member of the minority Liberal Party, take over Malacañang, such a development will likely create political uncertainty in the country.

“[W]e would expect policy gridlock to ensue and Robredo’s presidency to be a ‘lame duck’ term,” the Fitch unit said.

“While unlikely, there is the potential that a Robredo presidency is resisted by Duterte supporters and her position faces legal challenges and widespread rejection within the political establishment,” it added.

Duterte has a rocky relationship with Robredo, who is critical of his bloody "drug war" and closer ties with China.

Weeks after appointing her as the country’s anti-drug czar, Duterte last November sacked Robredo. Duterte had said he could not trust the vice president with classified information.

Military intervention possible

“An attempt by the powerful clans to ignore or reject Robredo’s presidency could effectively nullify policymaking and throw the political establishment into instability,” Fitch Solutions said.

“In such an instance there could be military intervention if public supporters of competing political clans began to clash,” it added.

“This would result in the most aggressive sell-off of Philippine assets by foreign investors of the scenarios listed, with foreign direct investment inflows collapsing.”

But the Fitch unit said its “core view” is that Duterte will remain president until the 2022 elections and will make a clear choice on who he deems to be his successor.

“While Duterte has suggested that he does not intend to back a specific candidate, we believe his desire to secure his legacy and protect his interests will mean he chooses a successor,” Fitch Solutions explained.

“However, given the various factions within Duterte’s support, there is the potential for challenges from within Duterte’s camp,” it added.