With just six months until the Iowa caucuses and a field of over twenty Democratic candidates seeking the nomination for president, each debate presents a unique opportunity for candidates to have their breakout moment, such as Kamala Harris’ poll boosting performance in June. The July debates are held in a similar fashion as the June debates, with ten candidates debating on Tuesday, July 30th, and then the following night on Wednesday the 31st.

For the next debates held in September and October, candidates will need to qualify via four polls at 2% AND with 130,000 unique donors. Most of the candidates in the field have not yet hit 2% and some haven’t even hit 65,000 donors. As of July 31, only seven candidates have qualified: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. What this means is that every other candidate is hoping for a star performance at these July debates, otherwise their campaign may be over.

Tuesday night’s debate featured Senators Bernie Sanders (VT) and Elizabeth Warren (MA) taking center stage as the two highest polling candidates, flanked by Mayor Pete Buttigieg (IN) and former Congressman Beto O’Rourke (TX). They are joined on stage by Senator Amy Klobuchar (MN), Governors John Hickenlooper (CO) and Steve Bullock (MT), Representatives John Delaney (MD) and Tim Ryan (OH), and spiritual author Marianne Williamson (TX).

Pre-debate Context

Sanders and Warren, long-time ideological allies in the Senate, have both carved out positions in the upper tier of the race. The progressive duo announced via their campaigns that they would not be attacking each other throughout the night, which is a good strategy given the fact that they share the stage with eight moderate candidates all hungry for a star-making moment.

Buttigieg and O’Rourke have the same mission tonight: to show that they still have a vision for the nation. Neither had outstanding first debate performances, although O’Rourke had a significantly worse one. Both O’Rourke and Buttigieg need to make a strong case to America why they are qualified to be in the White House. Still, as both are qualified for the next two debates already, it isn’t a terrible loss for them if neither stands out.

Everyone else’s – Bullock, Delaney, Hickenlooper, Klobuchar, Ryan, Williamson – on stage goal is to stand out among the crowd, whether that’s by going on the offensive against the two center stage frontrunners or making a case against Donald Trump. If they can’t do that, this debate may just be the nail in the coffin for them.

Spotlight moments:

“You’re wrong.”

The night started off loud with Sanders coming out strong against Delaney’s case that Medicare-for-All would be political suicide in the election against Donald Trump.

“I wrote the damn bill!”

When Ryan tried to tell Sanders that “you don’t know” what Medicare-for-All would cover. Sanders shut him down quickly met with loud applause.

“For politicians, including my fellow candidates who themselves have taken tens of thousands and, in some cases, hundreds of thousands of dollars from these same corporate donors, to think that they now have the moral authority to say, ‘We’re going to take them on,’ I don’t think the Democratic Party should be surprised that so many Americans don’t believe ‘yadda, yadda, yadda.’”

The last statement of the first half of the debates, when Marianne Williamson came out in full force and rebuked many of her fellow candidates in a memorable moment.

“White supremacy is domestic terrorism,”

Declared Warren emphatically when asked about the rise of white supremacy in the country.

“We need to say it like it is. It’s bigger than Flint. It is all over this country. It’s particularly people of color. It’s particularly people who do not have the money to fight back, and if the Democrats don’t start saying it, then why would those people feel they’re there for us? And if those people don’t feel it, they won’t vote for us and Donald Trump will win.”

Williamson giving a rousing speech on the cause of all the issues that she believes aren’t addressed.

“If you did the math of the 40 acres and a mule, given that there were 4 to 5 million slaves at the end of the Civil War, it would be trillions of dollars, and I believe that anything less than $100 billion is an insult.”

While O’Rourke may have started the discussion on reparations tonight, Williamson quickly took center stage on one of her signature issues. This response undoubtedly took Don Lemon, who had asked Williamson what her “qualifications” were to put the price on reparations, by surprise.

“It is time to stop worrying about what the Republicans will say. Look, if it’s true that if we embrace a far-left agenda they’re going to say we’re a bunch of crazy socialists. If we embrace a conservative agenda, you know what they’re going to do? They’re going to say we’re a bunch of crazy socialists.”

After a long night of back and forth on whether a progressive agenda is electable, Pete Buttigieg ends the argument to loud applause.

And finally, the best line of the night goes to Elizabeth Warren as she shut down John Delaney:

“I cannot understand why someone goes through all the trouble of running for president just to say what we can’t do or shouldn’t fight for. I don’t get it.”

Honorable Mention:

“The healthcare industry will be advertising on this industry tonight,” said Bernie Sanders as moderator Jake Tapper cuts him off. While this moment may have been glossed over quickly, it certainly made Sanders’ case that healthcare ads did in fact air multiple times throughout the night on CNN.

Winners:

Joint Winners: Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren

The progressive dynamic duo of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren came out of tonight stronger than they went in. Despite spending the night defending their liberal policies against eight other candidates who believed they were “fairy-tale policies” that weren’t grounded in reality, the senators did not give an inch and hit back hard consistently and with strong detailed policy. Both gave much stronger debate performances than last month, with Bernie recovering the explosive and blunt speech that made him a political firebrand in 2016, and Warren adding stronger debate rhetoric to fortify her strength in policy and detail.

Runner Up: Marianne Williamson

Williamson was already the most googled candidate at the first debate, and she repeated that feat tonight. Despite having the second-lowest speaking time on stage, each word of hers made a larger impact than any other candidate on stage. Her approach to healthcare was refreshing, she made the best case for reparations thus far, and she portrayed herself honestly and that very much came through on stage. While she hasn’t laid out the strongest policy for many of her ideas, she still had a remarkably strong debate performance. Don’t be surprised if you see a bump in her polling.

Losers

John Delaney

For all the speaking time he had, you’d think John Delaney could’ve done a better job of not looking clueless on stage. With the absence of Joe Biden’s moderate voice on stage, Delaney became the moderate flagbearer and clashed toe to toe with Sanders and Warren, but was unable to get a single attack to stick. That, coupled with Elizabeth Warren’s dramatic takedown of him, has somehow put Delaney in a worse situation than before the night began. He was an incapable candidate to begin with, but at least nobody really knew about it then.

John Hickenlooper

Hickenlooper needed this debate to be a good one for him. Many campaign staffers left his campaign and many more have urged him to run for the Senate. And while Hickenlooper didn’t have any disastrous moments, the fact that he was almost a complete non-factor was almost worse. At least Delaney tried to make a mark, it feels like Hickenlooper feels fine signing his campaign’s death warrant.

Tim Ryan

You’d think that given how badly Tulsi Gabbard hurt him last time, Tim Ryan might’ve dropped out by now. But still, the Ohio congressman bravely made his way back to the big stage where this time Bernie Sanders took him down. While he brought up some good points on union healthcare, Ryan’s night felt unimpressive and doesn’t seem to be enough to help him qualify for the Fall debates.

Amy Klobuchar

Amy Klobuchar felt non-existent as well. Unlike the other candidates on stage, she’s at least hit the polling qualification for the Fall debate, but her debate performance was so weak that she’s going to have a difficult time getting 130,000 donors. She had over ten minutes of speaking time, yet it felt like she had none. Every time she spoke, it was about Donald Trump, the fact that she’s from the Midwest, or it was yet another anecdote that nobody really found interesting.

Steve Bullock

The stakes were highest for the Democrat from Montana who hadn’t been present for the first debate. While he attempted to carve out space as a progressive who could get things done, the framing of the debate put him squarely on the losing moderate side. He had some strong performances throughout the night, but also a bad encounter with Elizabeth Warren on nuclear foreign policy. While normally he wouldn’t be considered a loser, the fact is that this debate performance probably won’t be enough to get him to the debate stage come September, and that is the guillotine for his fledgling campaign.

Everyone else

Beto O’Rourke

O’Rourke needed to make the case today that he had policies, not just values. This criticism of him has halted the progress of his candidacy, and tonight he didn’t really show he’d made it past that obstacle in the road yet. He had some strong moments, including starting a discussion on reparations but also had lackluster ones where he tried to compromise between the progressive and moderate wing that looked more like flailing than real policy. But his performance wasn’t as bad as last time, perhaps due to the absence of Julian Castro tonight, and because he has already qualified for the Fall debates, we thought he didn’t lose the debate entirely.

Pete Buttigieg

Similarly, Buttigieg didn’t have a shining performance. Much like the first debate, he had one or two really strong moments and then appeared to be mostly a non-factor for the rest of the two hours. Buttigieg definitely played to his biography, but his lack of strong policy was his Achilles’ heel tonight. Buttigieg has already qualified for the Fall debates as well and given his huge fundraising haul last quarter, this standard debate performance is enough to move him out of the losers’ bracket.

Conclusion

Much more explosive than the June debates, the desperation of candidates to continue their candidacies showed as the moderates clashed with the progressive frontrunners. The robust dynamic of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, however, fended them off and made a stronger argument for their progressive platform than had existed before. Marianne Williamson also shined, having multiple spotlight moments that could very well propel her to the Fall debates as well.

Everyone else on stage lacked presence for the most part. Buttigieg got in a few strong points, and Delaney certainly tried the hardest to make his case, but they ultimately failed in gaining traction. What this means is that this is the end of the road for everyone who hasn’t qualified for the next debate. Most of them have been struggling to hit 1% in polls, lack media attention, and haven’t even hit 65,000 donors yet.

Buttigieg and O’Rourke, despite mediocre performances, still have another three months and two debates to make their case. Klobuchar, who is qualified via polls but hasn’t hit 130,000 donors, may also join them if she’s able to power through August and get more donors.

The primary is still early, and bigger surprises have happened in recent politics. Sanders and Warren will continue to dominate the progressive lane, and while they remained friends today, ultimately one of them will have to give way for the other to stand a chance. Buttigieg and O’Rourke may still be in it, but it’s fairly certain that half the candidates on that stage have effectively hit the end of their candidacies.

Advertisements

Shruti Wadhwa Described by a friend as the girl who “ knocks wisdom into people by bludgeoning them with her unreasonably large iPad, dispenses woke wisdom and advocates for social justice, and is somehow very premed but still a highly tolerable person.” it is no surprise the Shruti Wadhwa enjoys politics as a hobby. Shruti is a Cognitive Science, pre-med student at Rice University who enjoys hiking, listening to podcasts, and spending endless hours on Youtube, all while drinking a nice hot cup of espresso. Nathan Zou A professional woolgatherer and political junkie, Nathan is a Chinese-American expat studying philosophy and mathematics at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland. He enjoys chai lattes, cooking, and a well-written short story. You can follow his work at nathanzou.com.

Share this: Facebook

Twitter



Leave this field empty if you're human: