How should Diamondbacks approach Paul Goldschmidt's contract extension?

Twice this offseason, a pair of Diamondbacks officials were asked about the possibility of extending the contract of first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Both executives gave similar, unenlightening answers.

In November, CEO Derrick Hall talked about how glad the Diamondbacks are to have Goldschmidt under contract for two more years, then showered him with compliments. A month later, General Manager Mike Hazen flatly said he would not discuss Goldschmidt’s contract, then quickly shifted the topic to the slugger’s value to the team and community.

That neither executive would discuss in detail a topic as sensitive as a star’s contract situation isn’t surprising until you remember how willing the organization has been to talk about it in the past.

Hall used to gush about wanting Goldschmidt to be a “Diamondback for life.” No promises were made, but there was always an expectation the club eventually would explore a new contract for its franchise player, perhaps one that replaced the team-friendly pact he signed prior to his breakout year in 2013.

But the recent rhetoric gives off a different vibe: It feels more like the club’s decision-makers are subtly preparing for the possibility of life without Goldschmidt. Not that they’re expecting to move on; just that they might have to.

Maybe that’s reading too much into it. Perhaps the club is quietly working behind the scenes on an extension. Or perhaps ownership still intends to do whatever it takes to keep him.

Whatever their plans, either outcome seems risky. Either the Diamondbacks invest huge money into an aging star or they let walk a player who is the clear face of the franchise and who could one day have his own statue outside Chase Field.

An aging star

Goldschmidt will earn $11 million this year – the third-highest salary on the Diamondbacks behind pitcher Zack Greinke and outfielder Yasmany Tomas – and $14.5 million in 2019, assuming the Diamondbacks pick up his option.

The first factor to consider is how much can change in two years. Players’ values can swing wildly from month to month, as can a team’s short- and long-term outlook. Two years is an eternity in baseball.

But assuming Goldschmidt remains highly productive over those two years, he’ll be hitting free agency at age 32 as one of the more accomplished first basemen of the past half-century.

From ages 24-29, Goldschmidt has accumulated 34.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), a stat that attempts to capture a player’s total contributions compared to a readily available replacement-level player. That’s the fifth-best WAR for a first baseman in that age bracket since 1967.

While Goldschmidt has impressive company on that list, the histories of the other first basemen are checkered, at best, from age 32 onward. Albert Pujols has collapsed. Frank Thomas had trouble staying on the field, as did Mark Teixeira. Todd Helton’s production fell off. Jim Thome kept hitting, but he shifted to designated hitter.

Some of this is typical baseball aging: The older a player gets, the less productive and more injury-prone he becomes.

But there are exceptions. Joey Votto played last season at age 33 and nearly won an MVP; he’s averaged 5.7 WAR the past two years. Jeff Bagwell accumulated the second-most WAR on that list (behind Pujols), and his age 32-36 seasons remained highly productive. He averaged 4.5 WAR in those years.

Bagwell is a player Goldschmidt grew up admiring – and the two are highly comparable. Like Bagwell, Goldschmidt is an offensive force who also contributes on the bases and in the field.

It’s also not too difficult to run through other recent stars who aged relatively well in their early-to-mid 30s – and sometimes beyond: Adrian Beltre, David Ortiz, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez. Who’s to say Goldschmidt won’t age similarly?

And if he does, what would it look like for the Diamondbacks if they didn’t re-sign him, with perhaps the best player in franchise history finishing his career – and thriving – elsewhere. What if his new team became the one with which he’s best remembered – like, say, Randy Johnson is with the Diamondbacks?

Still, teams that have bet large sums on slow declines have been penalized, repeatedly. Pujols’ $240 million contract – with four years still remaining – is perhaps the worst in baseball. Slugger Miguel Cabrera is coming off a brutal year, and the final six years of his $248 million deal look foreboding. The Phillies paid heavily for the back end of Ryan Howard’s career – a contract they came to regret.

Cost and contention

There will be a host of factors for the Diamondbacks to weigh before deciding whether to pursue another Goldschmidt extension. Two stand out:

1. Payroll. Greinke’s six-year, $206.5 million contract has provided ample evidence of how difficult it can be to win with so much invested in one player. Greinke did not pitch well and struggled to stay healthy in 2016, and the Diamondbacks flopped. He was better and healthier in 2017, and the club reached the postseason.

And this offseason the club finds itself limited financially, needing to find creative ways to plug holes in large part because it has nearly 30 percent of its payroll tied up in Greinke alone.

Greinke will have two years remaining on his contract when Goldschmidt hits the open market, meaning if the club pays market value for its slugger it will have a massive chunk of payroll devoted to two players.

And no one expects Goldschmidt to take a discount. Two years ago, he changed representation to Casey Close, the same agent who negotiated Greinke’s record deal.

Unless something changes with the club’s revenue streams, it’s fair to wonder if the team can afford to both sign Goldschmidt and field a competitor.

2. Contention cycle. That leads into the next point, which could start with this question: What will be more important to the Diamondbacks and their fan base: Goldschmidt’s final days or the chance at a winning team?

It’s a question the Pittsburgh Pirates are confronting with franchise player Andrew McCutchen under contract for just one more season, one Pirates GM Neal Huntington addressed last month while McCutchen’s name continued to swirl in trade rumors.

“We don’t want to see Andrew McCutchen in another uniform,” Huntington told Pirates fans at a Q&A session. “The challenge becomes, how do we sign Andrew McCutchen and build a championship team around him?”

Huntington doesn’t sound confident the Pirates will be able to. The Diamondbacks might have a similar issue. Hazen has said this offseason he believes the club’s farm system remains thin, that it lacks a clear bridge from its current crop of big leaguers to its next big wave of talent, most of which is in the lower minors.

If the Diamondbacks don’t have enough cheap, homegrown talent coming through the system at a time when Goldschmidt and Greinke would be chewing up a large portion of the payroll, it might not make sense to spend the money on an extension. In that scenario, by the time the club is ready to contend again, Goldschmidt could be well past his prime.

Up in the air

Again, much can change in two years. The Diamondbacks could trade Greinke, freeing up money. They could make a prolonged run into the postseason, creating unexpected revenue streams. They could retool their farm system with trades or watch as other prospects unexpectedly emerge, speeding up the arrival of their next wave of cheap talent.

Or perhaps things go the other direction. Goldschmidt could begin to decline and the idea of extending him might look less appealing. Or injuries and underperformance could plunge the Diamondbacks into a rebuild, forcing them to considering trading Goldschmidt rather than extending him.

A couple of years ago, when the Diamondbacks seemed likely to pursue a new Goldschmidt deal, they had a different team of executives running baseball operations.

Hazen and his group have given few hints about how they plan to proceed with Goldschmidt, but the fact they’re taking their current window of contention so seriously seems to suggest they believe there’s a chance it’s their last with their star first baseman in the fold.

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Reach Piecoro at (602) 444-8680 or nick.piecoro@arizonarepublic.com. Follow him on Twitter @nickpiecoro.