After a Fantasy Football eternity (2 weeks of domestic cup and European action), the Premier League makes a welcome return to our calendars and we, as Fantasy managers, can get back down to business, as we tackle the first gameweek of the season with less than the full allotment of 10 fixtures.

Our selection rules once again allowed us to beat the average gameweek score (41 points), with our recommended XI putting 45 points up on the board courtesy of captain Diego Costa (18), Roberto Firmino (6) and Cesar Azpilicueta (5). Some light tinkering (playing Sakho instead of Borthwick-Jackson at the back) could have resulted in a 50 point return. That’s 3 positive gameweeks in a row since we implemented the new rules, so read on as we aim for a 4th by once again analysing the bookies’ defensive and attacking odds…

Defensive odds

Team Clean Sheet Odds Implied chance Tottenham 1.91 52% Stoke 1.95 51% Leicester 2.25 44% West Ham 2.5 40% West Brom 2.75 36% Arsenal 2.88 35% Crystal Palace 2.9 34% Watford 2.9 34% Chelsea 3 33% Man Utd 3.2 31% Southampton 3.2 31% Bournemouth 3.5 29% Aston Villa 4.5 22% Sunderland 5 20% Swansea 6.5 15% Norwich 7 14% Everton No Fixture No Fixture Liverpool No Fixture No Fixture Man City No Fixture No Fixture Newcastle No Fixture No Fixture

With Everton, Liverpool, Manchester City and Newcastle all missing from Premier League action in Gameweek 27, it’s Mauricio Pochettino’s Tottenham side who top the bookmaker’s defensive rankings with a 52% implied chance of keeping a clean sheet. Spurs, who entertain Swansea on Sunday, have the tightest defence in the league (20 goals conceded in 26 games) and the 3rd-best home defensive record (9 conceded in 13). Having let in just 2 goals in their last 4 Premier League games, Toby Alderweireld and Kevin Wimmer make our squad this week. The Belgian centre half represents a real attacking threat (2 goals and 3 assists this season) and his Austrian partner is a budget friendly option with Jan Vertonghen out injured.

Stoke (51%) rank 2nd, with the Potters hosting Championship-bound Aston Villa. Despite struggling in the absence of the injured Ryan Shawcross (10 goals conceded and no clean sheets in 4 games), Mark Hughes’ men still have the joint-5th best home defence in the division, conceding 13 in 12 games at The Britannia. Should the influential Shawcross return on Saturday, Stoke’s chances of registering a shutout will certainly be boosted, but the fact that Villa are the lowest scorers in the league this term (20 goals scored in 26 games) should mean that Fantasy managers can confidently field Stoke’s defensive assets regardless. Jack Butland has been the Potters’ standout performer at the back this season and is selected for our XV this gameweek, along with central defender Philipp Wollscheid.

Leicester (44%) have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 8 Premier League outings and are ranked as the 3rd likeliest team not to concede this weekend by the bookies. With opponents Norwich blanking in 4 out of their 6 last road trips, Foxes’ bonus-point magnet and dead-ball specialist Christian Fuchs claims a place in our squad.

Completing the top 5 defensive sides for Gameweek 27 are West Ham (40%) and West Brom (36%). The Hammers start the weekend’s action, hosting Sunderland in Saturday’s early kick off. Aaron Cresswell is our pick from Slaven Bilic’s contingent for similar reasons to Fuchs (BP magnet and DB specialist), and he may have to rely on his attacking skills given the Black Cats have netted in each of their last 6 away games. The Baggies also enjoy home comforts on Saturday as they welcome a goal-shy Crystal Palace side (3 blanks in their last 4 away matches) to The Hawthorns. Ben Foster, therefore, helps fulfil our squad selection requirements.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet rankings tells us that defensive assets from Sunderland (20% – away to West Ham), Swansea (15% – away to Tottenham) and Norwich (14% – away to Leicester) should be avoided this weekend.

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Attacking odds

Player Goalscorer Odds Implied chance Harry Kane 2 50% Jamie Vardy 2.1 48% Emmanuel Emenike 2.8 36% Enner Valencia 2.8 36% Odion Ighalo 2.8 36% Shinji Okazaki 2.88 35% Diego Costa 2.88 35% Mame Biram Diouf 2.88 35% Riyad Mahrez 2.9 34% Dimitri Payet 3 33% Olivier Giroud 3 33% Dele Alli 3 33% Nacer Chadli 3.15 32% Charlie Austin 3.25 31% Troy Deeney 3.25 31% Christian Eriksen 3.25 31% Benik Afobe 3.4 29% Jermaine Defoe 3.5 29% Marko Arnautovic 3.5 29% Emmanuel Adebayor 3.5 29% Anthony Martial 3.55 28% Alexis Sanchez 3.6 28% Shane Long 3.7 27% Danny Welbeck 3.7 27% Salomon Rondon 3.75 27% Theo Walcott 4.1 24% Xherdan Shaqiri 4.25 24% Eden Hazard 4.33 23% Rudy Gestede 4.6 22% Wahbi Khazri 4.7 21% Willian 4.75 21% Dieumerci Mbokani 5 20% Steven Naismith 5 20% Alberto Paloschi 5.2 19% Mesut Ozil 5.25 19% Matt Ritchie 5.25 19% Juan Mata 5.8 17% Andre Ayew 6 17% Gylfi Sigurdsson 6 17% Carles Gil 8 13%

Harry Kane, despite having a broken nose, should be fit to start for Tottenham against Swansea on Sunday and is given a 50% chance of scoring by the bookies. With 16 league goals to his name this campaign and 5 strikes in his last 5 appearances, the England forward will fancy his chances of notching against a Swansea side who have conceded in each of their last 4. Along with top spot in the bookies’ attacking rankings this week, Kane is also given the captain’s armband for our recommended gameweek squad.

Joining Kane up front will be the current leader in the race for the Golden Boot, and England teammate, Jamie Vardy (48%). Having scored 4 in 4 to take his tally to 19 for the season, Vardy’s searing pace will likely cause Norwich’s back line, the joint-worst in the league having conceded 50 goals in 26 games, problems come Saturday afternoon.

We have a 3-way tie for our 3rd striker spot, with Emmanuel Emenike, Enner Valencia and Odion Ighalo all tied on 36%. Given that he has amassed far more points than the other 2 this term, Ighalo gets the nod for our XI. Whilst the Nigerian’s superb early season form has cooled somewhat (1 in 4), he has the chance to get back on track against fellow-promoted side Bournemouth, who have been shaky at the back recently, conceding 11 goals in their last 6 Premier League games.

Riyad Mahrez (34%) remains the highest-scoring Fantasy player this season with 184 points to date, and is the first midfielder to make our squad for this weekend. Facing the aforementioned Norwich defence, Mahrez, who has put up points in 3 of his last 4 appearances (1 goal, 3 assists), is expected to have a fruitful afternoon at The King Power on Saturday. Joining the Algerian Messi in our midfield this week is a red-hot Dimitri Payet (33%). The Frenchman scored twice in the FA Cup last weekend against Blackburn to add to his goal against Norwich last time out in the league and faces a Sunderland side who, along with the Canaries, have the worst defensive record in the division (50 goals conceded).

Marko Arnautovic (29%) and Alexis Sanchez (28%) complete our midfield quartet for Gameweek 27. Arnautovic, the 3rd Austrian to make our squad this weekend, hasn’t scored in his last 5 appearances, but does have 7 league goals this campaign and did find the net against opponents Aston Villa in the reverse fixture earlier this season. Similarly, Sanchez is in no goalscoring form to speak of, having not found the back of the net in the league since Gameweek 9, but did bag a brace against opponents Manchester United back in October. Theo Walcott (24%) is the next midfielder in our bookmaker attacking rankings and makes the bench as our 5th player in the middle of the park.

Other viable options for the 5 midfield slots are Spurs trio Dele Alli (33%), Nacer Chadli (32%) and Christian Eriksen (31%), along with Xherdan Shaqiri (24%), but they all miss out on places in our XV due to squad selection restraints.

The Gameweek Squad

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Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter.

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