Mark Leonard fears that the Franco-German “marriage” would soon break up, dealing a blow to the European project. Despite cordial relations between Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel, such a bust-up could still be likely, because both leaders have enormous obstacles to overcome at home. In recent year the rise of populist forces has polarised their countries and undermined their leadership.

The author urges Macron and Merkel to strengthen the “political center” ahead of next year’s European Parliament election. Their failure to do so will only enable Eurosceptic populist parties to win big. The problem is that in Germany, Merkel’s centre-right party and its centre left coalition party had lost ground to the far left and far right. Macron may try to use the European elections to claim the mantle of Europe’s leader and revive his standing at home.

As the EU is in need of an overhaul, Macron has ambitious plans for reform and has been counting on cooperation from Germany, France's closest ally, to see those plans come to fruition. Unfortunately he meets resistance. While Germany is no doubt pro-EU, Merkel is under domestic pressure to push back against economic reforms that could infuriate German taxpayers. And her party is seeking to restrict some of his proposals.

Macron and Merkel do not always agree on certain issues. The sticking point is economic integration, and in particular, Macron's bid to turn the Eurozone's current rescue fund into a full-blown European Monetary Fund, modeled on the International Monetary Fund, as a vehicle to manoeuvre another sovereign debt crisis within the monetary union. But Germany and France disagree on how it should work.

Germany favours a fund available for struggling Eurozone member states, but only under strict conditions. Macron would like a more flexible model that shares more risk, but gives more firepower to EU institutions to help in crises. Yet Berlin doubts France’s ability to boost its economy, bring down unemployment and reduce its excessive budget deficit. The Germans accuse France of blaming their intransigence for failing to get its house in order and obey basic EU rules.

Despite Macron’s “unpopular measures” last year to improve France’s finances and reform public sector and labour market, the author says Merkel had not offered anything in return, like backing his “proposals to deepen EU and eurozone integration, including a joint eurozone budget, an EU finance ministry, and more unified foreign and defense policies.” This left many in France to “suspect that Macron has been duped.”

The author points out their failure to complete a banking union and introduce eurozone investment bonds, and Merkel’s “lip service to the idea of a joint budget. Even on defense policy, which could serve as a stand-in for meaningful economic reforms, Germany has put up resistance, watering down EU proposals for an ‘avant-garde’ grouping and balking at Macron’s proposed European Intervention Initiative (EI2).” Many do not see light at the end of the tunnel.

If France and Germany fail to unite and stand up to the anti-EU forces, while singing along to Italy’s and Hungary’s tune, there could be a “populist federation” that would change the bloc’s political direction, to the detriment of its liberal values that have guided the EU for seven decades and provided for the Continent’s stability and prosperity.