IF A populist electoral eruption were understandable anywhere, it would surely be in Iceland. The old-guard parties’ mismanagement of the economy a decade ago led to a collapse that was epic even in the context of the global financial crisis. Since then the country’s politics have been roiled by periodic scandals. Last year the then prime minister, Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson (pictured right), resigned after his name was linked to the “Panama papers” scandal. Then, in September, news broke that the newish prime minister, Bjarni Benediktsson (pictured centre), had concealed the fact that his father had helped a paedophile to restore his reputation. That prompted elections for the third time in four years, which took place on October 28th.

Early on in the campaign the Pirates, a protest party, and the Left-Green Movement, one of Iceland’s most left-wing outfits, were polling well. Yet, as in last year’s election, parties tied to the establishment ended up doing much better than expected. Mr Bjarni Benediktsson’s Independence Party received the biggest share at 25%—though, as usual in Iceland, not nearly enough for a majority of its own. Mr Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson’s Centre Party, which was founded just weeks ago, picked up 11% of the vote. Both the Independence Party and the Left-Greens, who finished second with 17%, will try to form coalition governments in the coming days.

Why do the establishment parties remain so popular? Three factors are at play. First, Icelanders are a progressive bunch. It is the best place in the world to be a working woman, according to an index compiled by The Economist. Yet their progressivism tends to be of a liberal, permissive sort, and this also has a dark side, sighs one Icelandic MP. People quickly forgive public figures for past misdeeds.

The second reason is that outfits such as the Independence Party wield great power. One Icelandic political pundit estimates that around election time, the Independence Party has 600 people—one for every 600 Icelanders—working the phones to fire up the vote. The party has been in government for most of recent history. One-fifth of Icelanders will vote for it, no matter what.

Yet the most important factor is the economy, whose growth has been positively volcanic. Last year GDP rose by 7%, faster than in any other rich country. Real wages are 20% above their pre-crisis peak and are rising at 5% a year. (To illustrate how unusual this is for a rich country, the respective figures in Britain are -3% and -0.5%.) Opposition figures point out that the economy’s outperformance is really the product of a prolonged boom in tourism, not the genius of government. That may be true, but most Icelanders do not seem to care. When living standards are rising so fast, taking a chance on a party that promises to shake things up is a much less attractive proposition.