India can't take the support of Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal for granted. All the three countries have a common factor to reckon with – China.

What happens to Sri Lanka, Maldives and Afghanistan if India takes the sub-Saarc route of BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal) if Pakistan is to continue throwing the spanner in the works of the Saarc developmental story?

It looks like that my earlier article talking about India having the BBIN option has raised more questions than it answered.

The BBIN concept leaves out three other Saarc nations – Sri Lanka, Maldives and Afghanistan – while Pakistan is obviously left out in the Indian scheme of things. The inevitable question is if the BBIN concept were to be implemented by India, even if in the sub-regional context, what happens to Saarc countries like Sri Lanka, Maldives and Afghanistan?

Also, one must not forget a crucial question: can Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal really be seen as partners of India at the cost of Pakistan – and by proxy China? While the increasing over-dependence of Bangladesh and Nepal on China cannot be discounted, Bhutan too has been bearing the brunt of the ever increasing clout of the Dragon.

Let us get to the second question first. India can't take the support of Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal for granted. All the three countries have a common factor to reckon with – China.

In fact, all Saarc nations have to keep the China factor in mind in view of the current geopolitics of the region. Incidentally, China is an observer in Saarc and very keen on becoming full member of the 30-year-old South Asian body, though it is not a South Asian nation.

With friends like Pakistan, China hopes that even if it does not become a full member of Saarc – which it knows in its hearts of its hearts that it won’t – it aspires to become a dialogue partner. India has been resisting this for some years but may not be able to hold out for very long.

China becoming a dialogue partner of Saarc would be a strategic defeat for India. It would mean that China would be eligible for formally and officially engaging with each of the Saarc members, like India has been doing with each of the ten Asean members.

Now back to the first question: what happens to Sri Lanka, Maldives and Afghanistan if India were to take to the BBIN route within Saarc given the non-cooperation and intransigence of Pakistan?

India has already been engaging with Sri Lanka and Maldives in a trilateral format. Both Sri Lanka and Maldives are crucial for India – not just because these island nations constitute India’s backyard. From the point of view defence and geography, Sri Lanka and Maldives need to be clubbed. Therefore, one will have to wait and watch for the fledgling trilateral partnership of India, Sri Lanka and Maldives.

Till recently, both Sri Lanka and Maldives were difficult countries for India to manoeuvre as the two island nations have found it increasingly difficult to ignore China. Moreover, China has been pursuing cheque book diplomacy and enticing Sri Lanka and Maldives with multi-billion dollar investments.

India, which is already engaging rather pro-actively with Sri Lanka and Maldives in a trilateral format, will have to convince both of them that being their immediate neighbour can be far more useful than any other foreign power, including China.

As for Afghanistan, it is already a misfit in the Saarc context. Any talk of forging transportation and infrastructural connectivity among all eight Saarc nations would be meaningless if Pakistan is not on board. Afghanistan is dependent on Pakistan like no other Saarc country is. India will have to find another geographical route to rope Afghanistan in its gambit.

India may well have to cobble another sub-regional framework by dealing with Afghanistan along with Iran as it deepens relations with another non-Saarc member, Myanmar. Incidentally, both Iran and Myanmar have been clamouring for full membership of Saarc.

Thus, if BBIN concept were to take off, powers like Sri Lanka, Maldives and Afghanistan will not be left far behind and efforts would be made to include them in India’s Saarc template. How and when it happens is too early to say.