It’s likely that for the next 18 months or so — until there’s a coronavirus vaccine — school will look very different for most families.

The changes will likely go beyond just physical distancing.

Even if school becomes safe enough for students to return in the fall, a county expert predicts students might see their classmates and teachers only once or twice a week.

School districts may have to adapt more of their instruction from classroom-based learning to blended or distance learning.


It’s a paradigm shift that may cast ripple effects on public education for years to come, said Bob Mueller, program specialist for student support services at the San Diego County Office of Education.

More families may end up preferring virtual school and leaving traditional schooling behind because of health safety concerns, he said.

“I really do think that public education will be changed by this in a way that lasts for decades,” Mueller said in an interview. “It’s going to change the way we think about the role of the teacher, really the role of every employee to some degree.”

Last week the San Diego County Office of Education, which oversees public schools in the county, published a set of guidelines and assumptions for school leaders about when and how schools can reopen.


One of the county office’s more sobering assumptions is that almost all students will start the next school year with learning deficits.

Disadvantaged students likely will be the worst off, because they may lack a computer or internet access, have parents who are unable to help them with schoolwork, or lack a home environment suitable for learning, according to the assumptions.

Whatever happens, Mueller said, one thing is certain: schools cannot allow student learning losses to continue.

“That’s just not acceptable. We would be failing a generation of kids if we allowed that to happen,” Mueller said. “We need to use the time that we have between now and the start of the next school year ... to make sure that doesn’t happen.”


Mueller said he and other county office staff created the guidelines and assumptions based on research from many articles, especially ones with interviews of epidemiologists. They also consulted with the county’s emergency operations center, school district safety officials, the county public health department and school nurses.

The guidelines are based on the current public health situation and current knowledge of the virus. Things may change in upcoming weeks or months.

Based on what officials know now, physical distancing likely will be required in schools when students return, Mueller said.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has suggested that distancing will be necessary until herd immunity is achieved.


Physical distancing would likely require more than just staggering bell schedules to avoid students gathering together, Mueller said.

Many schools won’t have the space for physical distancing, so schools would likely have to limit the number of students allowed in a building on any given day, Mueller said.

Mueller says schools should start planning for the possibility that they may have to abandon the typical five-days-a-week, in-person school attendance model. Instead they should plan to switch to non-classroom-based instruction, an area of education that has been embraced by some charter schools.

Non-classroom-based school can mean independent study, where students do their academic work at home.


It can mean using schools as learning centers, where students check in, face-to-face or virtually, with teachers once a week or so for support.

It can mean instructors will teach students via computer or in person, one-on-one or in small groups, once a week by appointment.

The county office also is suggesting districts plan for “blended learning” options, which combine online and classroom instruction. With blended learning, students would come to school one or two days a week for instruction. Or they would stay at home every day and get daily instruction by webcast.

All of this presents a huge planning challenge for school districts, Mueller said.


Districts will have to negotiate such changes with unions and figure out how to pay for them. If schools end up needing masks for all staff and students, for instance, they will have to figure out where to find them, as they’re nearly impossible to get, Mueller said.

The sheer amount of planning required to reopen is why Mueller believes school leaders’ time would be better spent planning for next school year than trying to salvage a few weeks this year, he said.

Another thing: it may not be safe to hold in-person graduation ceremonies this June, so the county office suggests schools to come up with graduation alternatives, such as webcasting the ceremonies.

The start of the next school year may be delayed for some schools, Mueller said, depending on the public health situation.


Schools should also plan for a potential second wave of infections that may arrive in the October or November flu season, he said, which could necessitate more school closures.



Worse than 2008

As traditional schools plan to change nearly everything about how they operate, schools and districts also have to brace themselves for what is likely to be a financial crisis far worse than the 2008 recession, said Deputy County Superintendent Mike Simonson in an interview.

The 2008 recession was mostly a revenue problem, Simonson said; by the end of the recession, California schools were receiving 24 percent less funding than they were owed by the state.

The pandemic will be both a revenue and an expenditure problem.


School districts already were facing growing financial pressures before the pandemic — mainly from special education and pension costs as well as declining enrollment.

Now many school districts’ costs also are increasing as they transition to distance learning and plan for expanded summer school, to make up for learning losses resulting from the pandemic.

“They already have pressures and now, if we’re going to add a revenue shortage, that will make things much more challenging this time around,” Simonson said.

What’s more, student attendance rates — which affect how much schools receive in state funding — likely will decline due to sickness and fear of the virus, Mueller predicts.


Enrollment in traditional schools also is likely to decline, he said. Families might leave traditional brick-and-mortar schools for virtual charter schools that have well-established distance learning programs, Mueller said. Families also may leave San Diego County for less expensive places to live.

On top of that, state tax revenue — the main source of funding for public schools — is expected to dive as the state and national economy suffer due to the pandemic.

So far schools have been promised little federal and state aid.

The state has given public schools about $17 per student for some pandemic costs, which amounted to $8 million for San Diego county schools overall. The federal government allocated $13.5 billion for K-12 schools nationwide in its coronavirus aid package, which represents less than 1 percent of the whole $2 trillion package.


Schools won’t know how much revenue the pandemic might cost them until the governor releases his revised budget next month, Simonson said.