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UKIP is inching closer to picking up its first London Assembly seats in more than a decade, experts said today.

Nigel Farage’s party could win two seats including one for mayoral candidate Peter Whittle.

Ukip has not been represented on the Assembly since 2004. The body is made up of 11 capital-wide “list” seats and 14 “super-constituency” seats usually two or three boroughs in size. Most changes — including Ukip’s gains — are likely to come from the “list”, but four super-constituencies could also change hands.

Any success on the “top-up” list is likely to come at the expense of Greens and Lib-Dems who could struggle to keep their two seats each.

Conservative Shaun Bailey, a former advisor to David Cameron, could win a list seat and Women’s Equality Party’s Sophie Walker also stands a chance.

Only three of the 14 super-constituencies have ever changed hands.

Barnet and Camden always elected a Tory until Labour’s Andrew Dismore won in 2012. However, he failed to win the Hendon seat at the general election and the impact of Labour’s anti-Semitism crisis could be felt here.

Labour won Ealing & Hillingdon from the Tories in 2012. But Hillingdon is a dominant Tory local authority and the presence of Uxbridge MP Boris Johnson may help them win back the seat.

Brent and Harrow is expected to stay Labour but low turnout combined with Labour chaos nationally may see a late surge. There is an outside chance Tory-held Croydon and Sutton could go to Labour. Havering and Redbridge has always been Tory but local polling suggests the Tory and Labour candidates are neck-and-neck. Ukip eating into their vote share could affect the result.

Chris Madel of London Communications Agency said: “Overall Labour look on course to remain the biggest party with probably 11 or 12 seats followed by the Conservatives on 9 or 10. The Lib-Dems, Greens and Ukip will battle for the remaining 4 to 6 seats. This could make for a very different relationship between the London Assembly and the Mayor over the next four years.”