Modelling obtained by the ABC predicts health services in regional Victoria may face coronavirus patients outnumbering available ICU beds by as much as 10 to one.

Key points: Wimmera Base Hospital was told to prepare for 10-30 ICU admissions a day at the height of COVID-19 infections

Wimmera Base Hospital was told to prepare for 10-30 ICU admissions a day at the height of COVID-19 infections Many regional hospitals serve aging populations

Many regional hospitals serve aging populations The Victorian Government said regional and rural services have a pandemic plan

As the impending crisis looms, nurses and doctors at the Wimmera Base Hospital are concerned it won't be able to cope.

Calls for the Government to release the modelling have gone unanswered, but for the past two weeks the ABC has been embedded inside a hospital and seen documents that reveal the methodology the Victorian Government is relying on to make decisions about how to respond to the crisis.

The modelling, which incorporates social distancing measures, predicts Wimmera Base Hospital will receive 10 to 30 ICU patients every day at the height of the crisis, but there are only five beds and enough nurses to safely care for three ICU patients on ventilators.

At Ballarat, the nearest major hospital, departmental modelling predicts 70 to 110 ICU admissions a day at the peak of the outbreak. That hospital currently has 13 ICU beds and enough staff for seven patients.

Unlike city hospitals, regional and rural areas suffer from a lack of medical professionals and resources, while caring for an ageing population.

Wimmera Base Hospital in Horsham is preparing for coronavirus admissions. ( ABC News: Jess Davis )

A regional hospital prepares

The magnitude of the task ahead is not lost on Wimmera Base Hospital CEO Catherine Morley.

If the modelling tracks as predicted, she will face the most difficult task of her working career.

"If everyone only stayed a day [in hospital], that would work really well, but everyone's not going to stay a day, so once we fill our empty beds we're in trouble," she said.

"That's the distress that people will have — we won't be able to provide care."

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The hospital cares for a region encompassing about 54,000 people across 60,000 square kilometres in regional Victoria.

Normally, if patients outnumber ICU beds they will be transferred — a two hour drive to Ballarat or nearly four to Melbourne.

But Ambulance Victoria has told the hospital it can't guarantee it will be able to transfer coronavirus patients. And if city hospitals are full anyway, there will be nowhere for them to go.

"There's not going to be enough beds," Ms Morley said.

"If the ambulance can't get them down there, it's our community members who will be unable to access services and they'll die."

'Something we've never seen before'

The Wimmera Hospital ICU is tucked away behind the acute ward and is run by head nurse Anne Russell, who has worked here for more than 35 years.

She was hit hard when she saw the modelling.

Anne Russell said in the small community of Horsham healthcare workers knew many of the people they would be treating. ( ABC News: Jess Davis )

"We're putting our lives at risk to care for people in the community — that we also love and and know a lot of them — so it just became very real today and scary," she said.

"I think we'd realised the gravity of it, but I think we probably didn't realise the closeness of when this COVID virus is going to really hit."

Staff at Wimmera Base Hospital are trained in dealing with respiratory illness. ( ABC News: Jess Davis )

She's trying to focus on preparation, but admits she's scared of what's to come.

"We're going to be in for something that we've never seen before."

Ramp-up of ICU beds on the way

On Wednesday, the Victorian Government announced an extra 4,000 ICU beds would be established, but did not say where they would go or how they would be staffed.

In a statement to the ABC, Victoria Health Minister Jenny Mikakos said the testing regime in Victoria was among the highest per capita in the world.

Victorian Health Minister Jenny Mikakos said all regional and rural services have a pandemic plan. ( AAP: Stefan Postles )

"We are preparing for all contingencies, but if Victorians do the right thing and stay at home we will protect the health system, we'll save lives and we hopefully won't need all this extra capacity," she said.

"All of Victoria's rural and regional services have a pandemic plan, and have already started their planning to support a coordinated health service response to coronavirus in every region."

On the front lines

For staff at the Wimmera Base Hospital, the problem is more immediate. They want basic things like change rooms with showers, so they can avoid taking the virus home to their families.

The hospital's infection control coordinator, Jenny Vague, is tasked with stopping the spread of coronavirus at Wimmera Base Hospital.

"I wake up in the morning with the six o'clock news going off and I always listen for the death toll and it just hits you as soon as you put your feet on the floor," she said.

"I'm terrified of what we're sending them [my colleagues] into, but we'll do our best and we'll just do it day by day, step by step."

Staff at Wimmera Base Hospital meet to discuss the COVID-19 crisis. ( ABC News: Jess Davis )

Navigating this crisis, and beyond

Ms Morley said she was planning for the worst-case scenario.

"I have to be tough and I have to be brave and I have to make really good decisions — there'll be decisions that I'll make that you know will impact people's lives," she said.

"We're an ageing community, we've got lots of chronic diseases and comorbidities, we're not a well community."

Catherine Morley, CEO of Wimmera Base Hospital, said she was fearful of healthcare workers having to make tough decisions. ( ABC news: Jess Davis )

Horsham has two cases of COVID-19 already, although the outbreak has not yet severely affected the area.

Beyond the crisis, Ms Morley hopes there is a chance to reset priorities in the health system.

"I think this is a chance for us to go back to the drawing board to start again about what we need to put in place to keep people well wherever they live," she said.

"Even if the curve is flattened, we are still going to have an increase of people who are going to be severely unwell and we won't be able to cope and we won't be able to get them to Melbourne.

"And that isn't right in Australia."

Healthcare workers watch on during a training session. ( ABC News: Jess Davis )

Reporting by the National Regional Reporting Team, ABC Rural and Regional and Background Briefing.