TORONTO — The most action moving forward will all be coming from the West Division as it’s likely the West Division will be having their fourth-place team crossing over to the East to battle against the REDBLACKS or Tiger-Cats in the opening round of the playoffs.

Despite being on a bye week in Week 17, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats locked up a playoff spot with the loss that the Montreal Alouettes suffered to the Stampeders on Monday. Both Montreal and Toronto have been eliminated from playoff contention at the conclusion of last weekend’s games.

As of right now, the BC Lions are in a position to take claim to the crossover match with the East, which, if the season were to end today, would pin them up against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. The recent slump by the Edmonton Eskimos have left them in the basement of the West Division hoping to make the most of their final three games of the season, hoping to rise up and still manage to squeak into the playoffs.

In Week 17’s CFL Simulation, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers are heavily favoured over the Saskatchewan Roughriders. As a result of the model being used for the simulation, the margin of victory is taken into consideration, giving Winnipeg the edge when it comes to the Grey Cup odds.

Here is a look at how the teams stack up:

ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS Team (Projected 2018 Record) Projection Calgary Stampeders (15-3) Clinched Saskatchewan Roughriders (11-7) Clinched Ottawa REDBLACKS (10-8) Clinched Hamilton Tiger-Cats (10-8) Clinched Winnipeg Blue Bombers (10-8) 98.00% BC Lions (8-10) 60.87% Edmonton Eskimos (8-10) 41.13% Toronto Argonauts (5-13) Eliminated Montreal Alouettes (4-14) Eliminated

ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME Team Projection Calgary Stampeders Clinched Ottawa REDBLACKS Clinched Hamilton Tiger-Cats Clinched Saskatchewan Roughriders 75.39% Winnipeg Blue Bombers 23.40% BC Lions 1.10% Edmonton Eskimos 0.11% Toronto Argonauts Eliminated Montreal Alouettes Eliminated

ODDS TO WIN EAST Team Projection Hamilton Tiger-Cats 58.41% Ottawa REDBLACKS 41.59% Toronto Argonauts Eliminated Montreal Alouettes Eliminated

ODDS TO WIN WEST Team Projection Calgary Stampeders 98.66% Saskatchewan Roughriders 1.34% Winnipeg Blue Bombers Eliminated BC Lions Eliminated Edmonton Eskimos Eliminated

ODDS TO APPEAR IN 106TH GREY CUP Team Projection Calgary Stampeders 72.64% Hamilton Tiger-Cats 58.35% Ottawa REDBLACKS 41.59% Winnipeg Blue Bombers 20.24% Saskatchewan Roughriders 8.91% BC Lions 1.61% Edmonton Eskimos 1.01% Toronto Argonauts Eliminated Montreal Alouettes Eliminated

ODDS TO WIN 106TH GREY CUP Team Projection Calgary Stampeders 50.03% Hamilton Tiger-Cats 21.67% Winnipeg Blue Bombers 14.33% Ottawa REDBLACKS 8.46% Saskatchewan Roughriders 5.00% BC Lions 0.32% Edmonton Eskimos 0.19% Toronto Argonauts Eliminated Montreal Alouettes Eliminated

MOST LIKELY 106TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS Team Projection Calgary-Hamilton 42.65% Calgary-Ottawa 26.78% Winnipeg-Hamilton 10.62% Winnipeg-Ottawa 7.02% Saskatchewan-Hamilton 4.94%

The model considers the following:

• Each team’s current win-loss record.

• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).

• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.

• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).

• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.

For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.