System in tropics better defined; tropical depression likely to form by late Saturday

The disturbance drifting over the Yucatan Peninsula is becoming better defined and now has a 90 percent chance of becoming a subtropical or tropical depression by Saturday.

Although showers and thunderstorms have been poorly organized because of strong upper-level winds, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development through early next week, according to the latest advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center.

More: Consistent rain increases mosquitoes, gator, love bug sightings on Treasure Coast

The depression is forecast to form by late Saturday over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday afternoon, if necessary.

Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast beginning Saturday evening and continuing into early next week.

More: NOAA forecasters predict near- or above-normal 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

The threat of rip currents will steadily increase along the Gulf Coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend.

On the Space and Treasure coasts, the brunt of the rainfall is expected to move in by Saturday evening. Meteorologists with the National Weather Service Melbourne predict about half an inch of rain will fall between 4 and 7 p.m., though showers are likely to continue through early next week.

"The threat for us is going to be heavy rainfall and flooding, especially on the Treasure Coast," said Kevin Rodriguez, Weather Service meteorologist.

More: Sunshine makes appearance in between days of rain from Gulf system

If the system develops into a tropical storm, which Miami Weather Service meteorologists said is likely, it will be named Alberto.

The projected paths of this system range from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida.