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Re: G3* - BOSNIA/SERBIA - Dodik wins RS presidential race

Released on 2013-11-15 00:00 GMT

Email-ID 1798664 Date 1970-01-01 01:00:00 From marko.papic@stratfor.com To analysts@stratfor.com

Re: G3* - BOSNIA/SERBIA - Dodik wins RS presidential race





By the way, Silajdzic's ouster in BiH means that Ankara's influence will

temporarily wane in BiH. He was really Turkey's direct link into Sarajevo.

Izetbegovic will rebuild those links because he has his father's legacy of

cooperation to go on, plus it is in the strategic interest of both Ankara

and Sarajevo to maintain the channels open.



Another thing that comes clear out of the elections is that Dodik is as

strong as ever, he completely destroyed opposition in RS. This also makes

me think that the Turks dont really know what they are talking about. One

of the foremost experts on BiH from Turkey said Dodik will probably lose

elections.



----------------------------------------------------------------------



From: "Marko Papic" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>

To: analysts@stratfor.com

Sent: Monday, October 4, 2010 6:06:00 AM

Subject: Re: G3* - BOSNIA/SERBIA - Dodik wins RS presidential race



Bakir Izetbegovic managed to defeat Silajdzic. This is going to make

constitutive reform talks interesting, since Silajdzic was really the only

voice for a strong, centralized Bosnia left.



Interesting side note about Bakir. He is the son of former President Alija

Izetbegovic and tried to sell some surface to air missiles to AQ in Iraq

(by mistake, according to his party allies). The Americans told him he

would be in Guantanamo were it not for the legacy of his father's

commitment to an alliance with America.



----------------------------------------------------------------------



From: "Antonia Colibasanu" <colibasanu@stratfor.com>

To: "alerts" <alerts@stratfor.com>

Sent: Monday, October 4, 2010 5:24:27 AM

Subject: G3* - BOSNIA/SERBIA - Dodik wins RS presidential race



Dodik wins RS presidential race



http://www.b92.net/eng/news/region-article.php?yyyy=2010&mm=10&dd=04&nav_id=70053



4 October 2010 | 09:53 | Source: B92

SARAJEVO -- Initial results have been announced in Bosnia in the race

for the country's presidency and the Serb entity president.



Serb representative NebojAA!a RadmanoviA:*, Bosniak Bakir IzetbegoviA:*

and

Croat AA 1/2eljko KomAA!iA:* have been elected to the presidency,

according to this.



This means that former Bosnian President Alija IzetbegoviA:*'s son will

become a new member of the presidency, while RadmanoviA:* and KomAA!iA:*

will

retain their positions.



The Serb entity, RS, has a new president, and he is Milorad Dodik.



Election authorities announced that the voting system was such that not

even approximate results of voting for other levels of government were

known this morning.



In the race for the presidency membership, IzetbegoviA:* won 133,933 votes

according to results so far, leaving Haris SilajdAA 3/4iA:* behind with

97,537

votes.



In the Serb part of the race, RadmanoviA:* won 153,893 votes, while Mladen

IvaniA:* and his coalition received 144,988.



Milorad Dodik, who ran for president while in office as the Republic of

Srpska (RS) premier, won twice as many votes as another candidate,

Ognjen TadiA:*.



Both TadiA:* and IvaniA:* have conceded defeat, said reports out of Banja

Luka this morning.



--

Marko Papic



STRATFOR Analyst

C: + 1-512-905-3091

marko.papic@stratfor.com



--

Marko Papic



STRATFOR Analyst

C: + 1-512-905-3091

marko.papic@stratfor.com









