The trend will only continue if European elections go ahead

Failing to deliver Brexit is now doing serious damage to the Conservatives’ electoral prospects. And, assuming they take place, the European elections could prove to be a perfect storm in which Conservatives who voted Leave use that ballot to express their disappointment that Brexit has not yet taken place.

Even before the failure to leave the EU on March 29, there were already signs the Brexit impasse could cost the Conservatives support. Polls undertaken in the run-up to March 29 suggested the party’s support was already down three points on the 39 per cent at which it stood when Mrs May’s deal was first unveiled in mid-November. Crucially, all of that drop occurred among those who had voted Leave.

But now that Brexit Day has come and gone and Britain remains in the EU, that trickle has become a flood. On average, polls taken this month indicate that the party’s poll rating has dropped by another seven points, to just 29 per cent. Rarely does so sharp and sudden a movement occur in the polls.

It is predominantly Leave voters whose loyalty to the Conservatives has been stretched to breaking point by the Brexit impasse. Support for the party is now as much as 14 points lower among Leave voters than it was in mid-November. In contrast, among Remain supporters the fall has been a more modest four points.