For five months, the Luas strike was seemingly intractable, incapable of solution, before a change of heart by one shop steward broke the log-jam late last week.

However, if the Luas settlement came suddenly in the end, its effect will live long, as other transport workers set the 18 per cent increase over 4½ years as the starting point for their own demands.

In a fortnight’s time the Labour Court will hear claims from Dublin Bus workers who want rises of 20-30 per cent over a number of years.

The impact of the Luas dispute on the industrial relations landscape is hard to overstate, since it has ratcheted up expectations, altered mindsets and created new ideas of what is possible. It has also shown that a hard-fought campaign of disruptive industrial action, in the face of largely hostile media and public opinion, can win rises over and above recent norms.

The initial 54 per cent pay claim seemed excessive. However, management’s opening position was a deal linked to the Consumer Price Index – one that could be close to zero.

Supported

The Labour Court recommendation is considered by unions to have a set an important precedent. Unions such as the NBRU have already signalled they want pay parity between bus and tram drivers. In the absence of any centralised pay bargaining after the collapse of social partnership, prior to the Luas deal, a number of key unions such as Siptu and Mandate have concluded 2-3 per cent deals for the private sector. A survey of private sector employers published by specialist journal Industrial Relations News last March forecast pay deals this year would be an average of 2.2 per cent.

Under the deal, Luas drivers will receive increases of about 18 per cent phased over 55 months to late 2020 – far more than the company had wanted, but less than they could have received if they had accepted an earlier offer.

Ahead of trends

Some, though, contend that if the deal is extended back to October 2014, when the previous agreement expired, then the new increases fall within the 2-3 per cent pay norms.

However, this argument is unlikely to hold much sway. Last month, Dublin Bus unions rejected a proposal in talks at the Workplace Relations Commission for increases of 8 per cent over four years for its 3,400 staff.

Siptu is likely to argue to the Labour Court on June 30th that it can accept nothing less than the 18 per cent proposed for Luas drivers. Extra productivity will cost more, too.

Both the NBRU and Siptu want to bridge the pay gap between bus and tram drivers – which could lead to claims running up to 30 per cent.

However the knock-on effects of the Luas dispute may also be felt further afield in other commercial State enterprises and into even in the broader public service. Already this week craft workers in the TEEU union in the ESB rejected increases of 5.5 per cent over two years as well as a lump sum payment of €2,750.