Peter Dutton is Labor's secret weapon as it eyes off every Liberal-held seat in Melbourne

Updated

"Peter Dutton is a vote-winning machine."

That's not a quote you want to hear from your political opponents. But it's one Labor strategist's view on Home Affairs Minister's "toxicity" for the Coalition in Victoria — an unusually critical state this election.

So toxic, the ALP believes, that within hours of the Prime Minister's campaign landing in Melbourne on Sunday, the party released an advertisement dedicated to attacking Mr Dutton.

"Right-winger Peter Dutton for the top end of town and himself," the clip says.

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Labor is now doing everything it can to remind voters about the events of last August and the man who orchestrated the leadership spill.

The ABC spoke to a clutch of ALP sources and, between them, they named every Liberal-held Melbourne seat as potentially within reach on election night, depending on the campaign and the swing on the day.

Several sources told the ABC the Liberal seat of Menzies — named after the Liberal Party's founder — could even come into play.

Menzies is held by Kevin Andrews — a conservative Tony Abbott loyalist who was the sixth name on the list mustered to force last August's second leadership ballot.

With a current margin of 7.8 per cent, the fact its name is even being uttered says much, especially after heavy swings in traditional Liberal heartland at the state election.

Coalition sources are predicting a net loss of two to three seats and that is a bleak outlook for a Government that needs to win seats to survive.

Victoria is arguably the weakest state for the Coalition.

So why might a man from 2,000 kilometres to the north sway votes in Melbourne?

"Victoria is different," was the view of several ALP types.

It's a state, they say, where Mr Dutton's brand of "muscular conservatism" grates like sandpaper against an electorate that is multicultural, educated, fair-minded and urbane.

He reminds voters that the Liberal Party they support — economically conservative yet socially progressive — has been out of step with their views on issues like same-sex marriage and climate change.

"A bit of momentum eased off from the end of last year, but people are still very grumpy with the status quo," one Labor MP said.

State election results cause for concern

Last year's state election result put the fear of God into every Victorian Liberal.

The massive swings against the party — recorded in blue-riband, Liberal heartland — showed traditional voters had abandoned them, and it showed how damaged the party's brand had become after Malcolm Turnbull was deposed as their leader.

It was telling that the Prime Minister's first campaign stop in Melbourne was to a small business in Deakin.

Labor leader Bill Shorten had been in the electorate to hold his first official media conference just hours after Mr Morrison called the election.

Mr Morrison — who doesn't enjoy the same popularity in Victoria as his predecessor — refused to comment on whether last year's leadership spill was still an issue, dismissing inquiries as "bubble questions".

The margin in Deakin is 6.3 per cent, but MP Michael Sukkar was a strong supporter of Mr Dutton during spill week.

Multiple Labor sources said the party was hopeful of winning the seat.

The Government has been pouring money into the seat, so Liberal sources are hopeful it will hold.

But if the Liberals are worried about Deakin, then the prospects are looking particularly grim for marginal seat-holders.

Liberal marginal seats at threat

Dunkley, held by first-term MP Chris Crewther, is effectively a write-off after a seat redistribution made it notionally Labor.

The same goes for Corangamite, held by Sarah Henderson, which Liberals say will fall if the swing goes against them.

Labor insiders expressed confidence about winning both of those seats, along with Chisholm and La Trobe.

Mr Shorten visited the latter on Monday — an outer-suburban seat currently held by Jason Wood.

But the sitting MP seems to view the Home Affairs Minister as an electoral asset, repeatedly highlighting on social media Mr Dutton's support for deporting foreign criminals.

"Foreign-born criminals is a key issue for the electorate," the former police officer told the ABC.

"When it comes to Labor's campaign on Peter Dutton in my electorate, he's cancelled more visas than anyone."

Mr Wood's Labor opponent, Simon Curtis, has no complaints about the Liberal MP talking about Mr Dutton.

"I've doorknocked over 35,000 homes in this electorate and not once has anyone said to me, 'I wish Peter Dutton was our prime minster'," he said on Monday.

"I don't think the people understand why the Member for La Trobe voted for him to be prime minister."

Other seats getting repeated mention include Flinders (held by Greg Hunt — who wanted to be Mr Dutton's deputy), Higgins and Casey.

The one bright spot for the Coalition is Indi in regional Victoria, where the popular independent Cathy McGowan is retiring at this election.

The Liberals have been working hard on the seat for some time and the Nationals appear to be running dead, boosting hopes within the party that they will reclaim it.

Moves to overthrow PM might cost MPs their jobs

During the leadership spill week, Victorian MPs in particular, it seemed, were being told by their constituents not to switch away from Mr Turnbull.

A marginal seat-holder at the time said they were getting "an email a minute".

The use of "baseball bats" by voters against Dutton backers was being canvassed.

Mr Turnbull made all his ousters that week sign a petition, which soon transformed into his political death warrant.

Ten months on, the document could soon kill off some of his enemies too.

Topics: government-and-politics, federal-elections, australia

First posted