Hard-pressed consumers face higher grocery bills after new figures showed that food prices jumped by 1.3% in June to within a whisker of their record high.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) food price index increased by 3 points to 234 points last month – a 39% increase on the year – as concerns about weak Brazilian sugar production sent sugar prices soaring by 14%, outweighing a decline in cereal costs.

As analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted that commodity prices would continue rising into next year, the average food price is now only 1.6% below February's record, when the FAO's basket of 55 food commodities reached 238 points.

Brazil is by far the biggest sugar producer in the world, accounting for more than half of world trade. In recent weeks poor weather has prompted analysts to reduce the amount of sugar they expect Brazil to harvest this year by 40m tonnes to 535m – the same as last year.

Rising sugar prices will make a wide range of food and drinks more expensive, from soft drinks to pies, putting more pressure on UK consumers already hit by rising inflation and weak economic growth.

Average food prices in the UK jumped by 4.9% in the year to May – a 23-month high – while last month, the FAO and OECD jointly predicted that food prices would soar by as much as 30% over the next 10 years. Angel Gurría, secretary general of the OECD, said at the time that this would have a "devastating" impact on the world's poor that was likely to lead to political unrest and starvation.

However, analysts said the recent sugar price rises should be short-lived and were confident they would begin to fall at some point over the summer. This is because farmers have been planting more sugar cane in the past year to 18 months in response to rising global demand, meaning supplies are likely to increase as the year goes on.

El Mamoun Amrouk, sugar analyst at the Rome-based FAO, said: "It's difficult to predict exactly what's going to happen to the sugar price because the market's so volatile and so any new information can have a big effect on price. The speculation is still there, exacerbating the trend and changes in the dollar also play a part.

"But the signs are that production is growing significantly and, especially in India and Thailand, the prospects are very positive, so we should see the price start coming down in the summer," he said.

Last month's sugar price increase was partly offset by cereal prices, which dipped by 1% after improving weather eased concerns about crops in Europe and the US, and Russia ended its ban on grain exports. Dairy prices increased by less than 1%, while meat held steady at a record high for the third month in a row.

Goldman Sachs said it expected further increases in a wide range of commodity prices this year and into 2012 – in food, as well as energy and metals – on the back of strong demand from Asia.

Goldman called the top of the commodities market in the middle of April, before calling the bottom six weeks later – after a significant decline in prices.

On Thursday, the group reiterated its buy recommendation on commodities, naming Brent crude oil, UK natural gas, copper, zinc and soybeans as being particularly attractive bets.

Standard & Poor's index of 24 key raw materials fell by 7.8% in the second quarter as the Japanese earthquake, slowing US economy and Chinese interest rate rises took their toll on demand.

However, Goldman is confident that now is a good time to get back into commodities. "We expect this [Asian] demand growth will be sufficient to tighten key commodity markets over the next six to 12 months, particularly for those markets where supply constraints will become binding even on slower economic growth," said Jeffrey Currie, Goldman's global head of commodities research.