I believe that one of the most integral points of true fight journalism is to never disregard the chances of any fighter outright.

Just the other week we were treated to one of the biggest upsets in recent UFC history, when T. J. Dillashaw gave Renan Barao the thrashing of a lifetime through four rounds, before turning the Brazilian champion into an ex-champion—flattening him with punches.

This weekend, the UFC flyweight champion, Demetrious Johnson meets Ali Bagaunitov. While I could never write Bagaunitov off, his skills simply do not seem to stack up with the flyweight king's. I haven't had the time to prepare a Killing the King: Demetrious Johnson (though my previous Killing the King: Renan Barao was recently discussed by Duane Ludwig, T.J. Dillashaw and Joe Rogan on the latter's podcast), though I hope a brief look at the styles of both men can shed some light on the match up.

The Dagestanis are Coming

If you have seen Ali Bagautinov fight—and I wouldn't blame you if you couldn't remember, we see a lot of fights—you may think of him mainly as a power puncher. He is one of the few men in the 125lbs division who can stop a fight with punches. Punching power is like gold dust from 155lbs down.

Bagautinov, like the other Dagestanis who have entered the UFC of late, holds incredible physical strength and a sambo base. Sambo, for those unfamiliar, is essentially Russian judo—though it places more emphasis on leg locks (which are illegal in judo and largely illegal in many Brazilian Jiu Jitsu too). There has been a good deal of cross-over between judo and sambo in Russia (and the U.S.S.R before that), with many of the best Eastern block sambo practitioners competing in judo internationally, because sambo is not an Olympic sport.

Russian judo took on it's own flavor, influenced by sambo and freestyle wrestling, and consequently Eastern block judoka tended to favour belt grips and suplexing motions, particularly in answer to hip throws and shoulder throws. Certainly it looks very different to what the Japanese or Korean teams bring to international competition.



“Judo, eh? How does that hold up against suplexes?”

Among the most famous of Eastern block judoka was the Georgian, Shota Khabareli who won the gold for the Soviet Union in the 1980 Olympics. Judoka still argue over whether the Khabareli throw is a beautiful use of leverage or an ugly, strength-based suplex.



The Khabareli Throw in all its glory.

Returning to Bagautinov, one thing which he does especially well is to land his right hand as he shakes free of a clinch. He dropped Marcos Vinicius in the first round of their fight in this way.



The sneaker right hand on the break, a classic.

Bagautinov almost exclusively takes on the role of the runner—asking the opponent to come to him. Against men like Tim Elliot, whom he does not want to wrestle, Bagautinov will back track until they commit on a strike, then immediately come back with counter punches.

Getting folks to chase you is the oldest trick in the book for a power puncher. While remembering that punching power is about creating collisions, watching Vinicius run onto this straight right hand will make you wince.

Against John Lineker, whose only interest is punching a hole in his opponent's head, Bagautinov

back tracked and circled until Lineker moved in with a punch or kick, then Bagautinov shot or caught the kick respectively.

At the Mercy of Bad Ringcraft

I draw attention to it in every article, but striking is not about running around the ring, trading flurries, just as Brazilian Jiu Jitsu isn't just about diving on arms and trying to lock in a figure four grip from any position. You can get away with that for a while, if you're strong and fast... but it's certainly not a science or art.

Your position in the ring dictates how vulnerable you are. Bagautinov is constantly standing on the edge of danger.

Just as his countryman, Rustam Khabilov, showed against Benson Henderson—circling around with your back to the fence and throwing power shots all fight is not conducive to lasting through a five round fight. When an opponent starts coming close, Bagautinov has to start jogging around the cage to try to stay ahead of them—and when he does this he expends energy and is vulnerable to strikes.

John Lineker used his vintage George Foreman right hook to the body as Bagautinov ran into it.

Demetrious Johnson, however, is famous for his stepping right hook. He will step into a southpaw stance to cut his opponent off, and land a lead southpaw hook. Against John Dodson this technique appeared dozens of times, and stopped the usually mobile Dodson from keeping the fight at distance.



A nice connection as Dodson attempts to circle out.

Johnson has made a career out of cutting off the ring, getting his opponent along the fence, hammering them, and then either moving for the takedown, or breaking free and doing the whole thing again. He puts the pace on his opponents through constant activity, and if you can't stay off the fence, you will always be at the mercy of the man who wants more engagements where you are trying to limit them.

There's No Substitute for Pace

There's a phrase I pinched from the footie—but it's true. There is simply nothing quite so tiring as a fighter who gets in your face and makes you fight for the full five minutes of each round. Demetrious Johnson sets a higher pace than anyone else in MMA, but Bagautinov has shown to suffer in the later rounds.

When he is counter punching, Bagautinov will sit back and as soon as he sees the opponent twitch he will throw a shot. This worked okay against John Lineker and his no frills punching style, but against an opponent who feints well he will probably struggle. We saw from Renan Barao, as he swung at air and failed to swing at T.J. Dillashaw when he needed to, just how confusing feints can be for a fighter who is loading up and looking to throw a big counter.



Tim Elliot repeatedly had Bagautinov whiffing powerful counter punches.

What is more, Bagautinov's style of counter punching is to give ground and then come back in with the counter. This works great if your opponent throws one strike at a time, like Tim Elliot, but Johnson's modus operandi is to box in with a combination, then use his level change as his defensive head movement, ducking under whatever comes back and securing himself on his opponent's hips.

An example of how Johnson's level change doubles as defensive head movement. He gets the opponent punching, then is already in on the hips.

Frankly, power might be gold dust at flyweight as we mentioned earlier. But if you strain to swing each time you punch, you fail to keep the pace for three or five rounds which flyweights are so well known for. You gain an edge for a few minutes of a fight, and lose it as each round progresses.

Conclusions

While I didn't have time to study the tape an make a Killing the King: Demetrious Johnson, I am lead to believe, by John Dodson's moments of success, that giving Johnson ground will be a large part of countering him. He rushes in with combinations and ducks in when he senses returning fire, but if an opponent retreats he will follow them with punches before ducking in for the hips or to evade.

John Dodson was able to hurt Johnson a couple of times by back step punching. If you can punch while giving ground, you have a tremendous advantage because you can convince an opponent to run onto your punches more readily.



Creating space is creating a larger window in which to counter. Out in the centre of the octagon is a far better place to counter fight than on the fence.

But to write Bagautinov off completely would be unfair and unwise. Dodson was able to hurt Johnson from the exact same position which Bagautinov gets himself into all the time—backed up against the fence. Johnson came in to kick, changed his mind, and was all out of position as Dodson came in to throw a combination. It was a miscalculation on Johnson's part, but there's no saying it won't happen again, he does love to kick along the fence.

While Johnson knocked Benavidez out with the latter's back to the fence, he came in chin up and eyes closed as he did so. Dangerous stuff against a bigger puncher—perhaps Bagautinov's chance is getting Johnson so caught up in one of his flows that he forgets his defence (and that happens a fair bit).

Perhaps the biggest disadvantage that any flyweight faces in coming up to fight Demetrious Johnson is that five round fights are his world—you know he is going to push you for rounds and see if you crumble. Yet with the exception of Johnson, flyweights never headline cards and so don't get to put in the rounds which they are going to need to fight Johnson.

In any case, a chance to watch Demetrious Johnson perform is always a treat, and the possibility that he might be dethroned, while slight, provides a constant tingle of excitement.

Pick up Jack Slack's new ebook, Fighting Karate at his blog Fights Gone By. Jack can also be found on Facebook and Twitter.

Check out these related stories:

Killing the King: Renan Barao

How TJ Dillashaw Killed the King