Over at Rotoworld, Warren Sharp has an advanced strength of schedule metric he has rolled out updating the traditional metric.

Classic SoS has been built on the winning percentage of teams based on their previous season record. Sharp’s method has improved on that approach substantially to make it more predictive than reactive:

I’ve attempted to pioneer a more educated SOS analysis because the current method used to analyze schedule strength is literally the least efficient possible. The established method looks only at prior-year win percentage with no context and measures those rates against current-year opponents. The Parcells-ism “you are what your record says you are” is true only as it relates to making the playoffs in that particular season. Although win-loss records determine which teams make or miss the playoffs, a win-loss record is hardly the most accurate way to measure a team’s strengths and weaknesses, or compare them the rest of the NFL. Measuring 2017 strength of schedule based on 2016 record is lazy, inaccurate and inefficient. But like most things in the NFL, it was an accepted method from the past, and there is a reluctance to shift away from established thought processes, regardless of the low-intelligence level many of those processes reflect. ... When it comes to strength of schedule, the reality is using in-season data produces a more effective representation and measure of opponent than pre-season projections. But most NFL media don’t see it that way – they will chime in a lot between now and September with strength of schedule (calculated the wrong way) but during the season, you won’t hear them ever discuss strength of schedule. This article, first in the series, will focus on 2017 Strength of Schedule using forecast win totals current as of late June from the betting market. For this article, I used one of the sharpest offshore books (Pinnacle) and two Vegas books (CG Technology & South Point). Based on the three books, I built a model to create a consensus line which factors in juice. Ignoring juice is a massive mistake. For example, ignoring juice on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over 8.0 wins would be incorrect. You must lay $140 to $145 to win $100 when betting the over. That is very different than if you bet over 8.0 wins on the Detroit Lions, where you only need to bet $84 to win $100. Using win totals to forecast 2017 SOS is far more useful than using 2016 season results. And we now have the added benefit of these totals being crafted by the betting market for two months.

You can find a data visualization of the metric here.

As for the Los Angeles Rams, our strength of schedule comes in as the 19th-easiest:

It will be hard enough for new coach Sean McVay to get Jared Goff on track when the Rams face pass defenses which rank 9th toughest this year, up from 21st last year. And they only get three bottom-10 games, the fewest number of bad opponents in the league. The good news is they only play four top-10 games, 2nd fewest in the league. It will be imperative to stay in games to allow for balanced play calling, as opposed to fighting from behind and into the teeth of these top pass defenses, such as the Seahawks twice, Jaguars, Cardinals twice, Giants, Texans and Vikings.

I’ll take it given how hard the Rams’ schedule has been in years past. A year ago, the Rams had the fifth-hardest schedule per the same metric. It ultimately finished tied for 14th as the Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Oakland Raiders all faced a schedule of opponents who went 129-127 on the year. West Coast bias indeed.

A quick look at the Rams’ 2017 schedule itself:

2017 Los Angeles Rams Regular Season Schedule Wk Date v/@ Opponent Time (ET/PT) TV Wk Date v/@ Opponent Time (ET/PT) TV 1 Sep. 10 v. Indianapolis Colts 4:05/1:05pm CBS 2 Sep. 17 v. Washington 4:25/1:25pm FOX 3 Sep. 21 @ San Francisco 49ers 8:25/5:25pm NFL Network/Amazon Prime 4 Oct. 1 @ Dallas Cowboys 1pm/10am FOX 5 Oct. 8 v. Seattle Seahawks 4:05/1:05pm CBS 6 Oct. 15 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 4:05/1:05pm FOX 7 Oct. 22 v. Arizona Cardinals* 1pm/10am FOX 8 Oct. 29 BYE 9 Nov. 5 @ New York Giants 4:05/1:05pm FOX 10 Nov. 12 v. Houston Texans 4:05/1:05pm CBS 11 Nov. 19 @ Minnesota Vikings 1pm/10am FOX 12 Nov. 26 v. New Orleans Saints 4:05/1:05pm FOX 13 Dec. 3 @ Arizona Cardinals 4:25/1:25pm FOX 14 Dec. 10 v. Philadelphia Eagles 4:25/1:25pm FOX 15 Dec. 17 @ Seattle Seahawks 4:05/1:05pm FOX 16 Dec, 24 @ Tennessee Titans 1pm/10am FOX 17 Dec, 31 v. San Francisco 49ers 4:25/1:25pm FOX

* - The Rams' “home” game against the Cardinals will be played in London, England, October 22

I like this schedule much more than in years past. We’ve got a back-to-back homestand to open the season. And of the road contests, you’ve got San Francisco and the Jacksonville Jaguars, two of the weaker teams in the NFL.

The only real issue in the pre-bye schedule is the London trip, which of course is one of Rams’ Owner Stan Kroenke’s making. By ceding a home game, we’ve got three home games, three away games and a neutral site contest instead of a majority four-game home run and three away games prior to the bye. Of course that London game is the second of three overseas home games we’re sacrificing. Much like last year’s contest, it’s sure to disrupt whatever normalcy an ordinary NFL schedule would otherwise offer (and as an aside, I’m yet again recommending readers check out Seasons 2 of Amazon’s All or Nothing when it gets released next Friday. The episode on the London game is incredibly well done and enlightening.).

It’s the post-bye run that looks more intimidating.

You’ve got a road test against the New York Giants who (a) we lost to last year and (b) made the playoffs. Then you come home against the Houston Texans who (a) are no longer quarterbacked by Brock Osweiler and (b) made the playoffs. Another road game, here to Minnesota. Back home against the New Orleans Saints who we lost to in 2016. The road again to Phoenix. Maybe the barometer game of the year both for the team and the franchise as a whole in Week 14 against the Philadelphia Eagles. And a two-game road jaunt. That’s...tough. If you’re looking for reasons to be hopeful, it starts with the Rams’ new head coach in Sean McVay.

If he’s going to make good on the decision to hire him in Year 1, it’s likely only going to come in the form of an improved team over the course of the season. As he hones his skills as a head coach both as a first-time head coach and the youngest head coach in NFL history, it’s fair to expect that he grows into the position after a decent stretch (if at all, but let’s hope the hire is on course for success). That likely pays dividends in the form of a much better team come Week 10 than Week 1, both in terms of system application but also, likely, in terms of personnel usage as well.

With Jeff Fisher an easy scapegoat for the Rams’ 2016 performance as it stands in mid-June 2017, that ability will erode quickly once the 2017 season gets underway. Strength of schedule doesn’t look a fair excuse for performance in 2017. If the Rams end up enjoying a middle-of-the-road SoS, they’ll have to own their record with more sincerity than in years past.

Perhaps that can impact the Rams’ need for culture change more than anything.