One of the central talking points of right-wing economists is that “uncertainty” caused by Obama is holding the economy back; they cite, again and again, a paper by Bloom et al purporting to find a relationship between uncertainty and jobs, with uncertainty measured via such things as article counts.

But what’s driving that uncertainty index? Jan Hatzius and his team at Goldman have an analysis, cited by FT Alphaville, pointing out something that I thought I knew, but with much more clarity: it’s not at all about Obama.

Here’s my key graph from the Hatzius paper:

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For the most part, “uncertainty” seems to reflect the fact that the economy is weak. Not surprising: while economists may define uncertainty in terms of second moments, most people use the term to mean fear that things could get worse.

Now, there is a spike in uncertainty in mid-2011. And we know what that’s about: the confrontation over the debt ceiling. There’s also some correlation between the Bloom uncertainty index and troubles in Europe.

So think about it: even if you accept the Bloom et al paper as gospel (which you shouldn’t), what it’s really saying is that the US economy is being held back by Republican extremism, by the GOP’s unprecedented willingness to hold the full faith and credit of American hostage for political gain. It is not, repeat not, about Obama looking at rich people funny.