The cost, in time and money, of establishing a new political party is horrendous. This harsh reality and the uncertainty of the public’s response encourage a tentative approach to such an initiative. In spite of that, discussions involving Independent TDs and Senators are taking place on the formation of a new group with social democratic credentials. The TDs involved enjoy serious political credibility and include Catherine Murphy, Stephen Donnelly and Roisin Shortall but, in terms of launching a significant general election challenge, they may have left it too late.

Six months ago, public dissatisfaction with the established parties had grown to such an extent that “Independents and Others” attracted 32 per cent support, 10 points clear of the nearest party. That finding led to a flurry of activity and, within months, Renua Ireland – composed largely of former Fine Gael politicians led by Lucinda Creighton – was formally established. At the same time, a disparate group involving Shane Ross, Finian McGrath, John Halligan and Michael Fitzmaurice canvassed councillors and others on the possibility of establishing a political alliance that would be prepared to participate in government. Now, there are stirrings of a left-leaning alternative.

Last week, an opinion poll showed the continuation of a persistent slide in support for “Independents and Others”, from 32 per cent to 19 per cent. Both Fine Gael and the Labour Party had increased their support as good news on the economic front continued to flow and the Government made deliberate preparations for an election, perhaps in the late autumn. In such circumstances, with a contracting pool of disaffected voters and increasing competition for attention, a new party would require distinctive and attractive policies to make an impact. A further consideration is that, in order to qualify for State funding, a party must secure two per cent of the national vote.

The results of the recent Carlow/Kilkenny by-election suggest that voters retain a strong visceral bias. In that constituency, the two “big beasts” of Irish politics slugged it out with Fianna Fail overcoming Fine Gael, while Sinn Fein positioned itself to take a seat in a general election. The aspirations of Renua Ireland, in spite of fielding an attractive candidate, fell short. In politics, timing is everything. Attracting and holding public attention must happen within the timeframe of an election. Ms Murphy succeeded in drawing attention on the acquisition of Siteserv by Denis O’Brien and triggering a national debate. But the issues have been referred to a commission of investigation and are unlikely to be resolved before an election. In present circumstances, the emergence of a like-minded group of TDs – rather than a formally constituted political party – would appear to be the most likely development.