D.C. Republicans began to fear Southerland's seat might slip away early this summer. How to blow an easy GOP win

MARIANNA, Fla. — It should’ve been an easy year for Rep. Steve Southerland, but instead of waltzing to reelection, the two-term congressman has served up a case study in how to blow a relatively safe Republican seat.

He started campaigning late, got crosswise with women by holding a men-only fundraiser, warred behind the scenes with his party over strategy and fretted over anonymous quotes criticizing his reelection effort.


In the meantime, a threat emerged in the hard-charging Gwen Graham, who put 36,000 miles on her Chevy Equinox traversing this district and drumming up support among rural Republicans and Democrats alike, appearing with her popular father, a former governor and senator.

Even though this district is rural, conservative and a pocket of deep resentment toward D.C. Democrats, Southerland finds himself in a multimillion dollar brawl with Election Day rapidly approaching. The contest has shocked Washington Republicans, who resent that they have to spend millions of dollars to prop up a member of the House Republican leadership in a district where President Barack Obama’s approval ratings hardly crack 30 percent.

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Washington Republicans began to fear the seat might slip away early this summer, when operatives at the National Republican Congressional Committee urged Southerland to fire back at Graham’s television ads. But Southerland turned down the advice, saying he knew how to run his race. He called Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy — his close friend — and NRCC Chairman Greg Walden to complain about anonymous comments surfacing in news stories criticizing his campaigning.

The rare power struggle is resolved, Southerland and other Republican sources say, and he’s “thrilled” they are back on the same page. He and committee members now strategize on a weekly call.

But some Republicans in Florida and Washington are still skeptical he can pull it out.

Southerland dismisses criticism, brushing off the tight race as nothing more than the result of the jump-start from Graham.

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“It’s easy to score touchdowns when the defense isn’t on the field — I would hope,” Southerland said in an interview, leaning against his pickup truck here in this rural town of 6,100. “And daddy in tow,” he added, a reference to Bob Graham’s constant presence on the trail.

Southerland maintains that he has a lead, and the district is snapping back to its natural tendencies. Voters here supported Mitt Romney, John McCain and Southerland in the past two elections. Internal polling shows the race is very tight.

As far as tensions with the NRCC, Andrea Bozek, a spokesman for the group, said “this kind of gossip is eye-roll inducing.” And she noted the NRCC has been working with Southerland.

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But Southerland, who sits on the executive committee and has a daughter who works at the party committee, seems bruised by the experience.

“Let me tell you something about my understanding of leadership and team building,” Southerland said, when asked about the NRCC. “It’s very different than what D.C. thinks a team is. D.C. has this idea that a team is a group of people that all tell each other what they want to hear. And everybody says what the leader wants to hear. That’s not a team. You look at what I’ve always valued, is honesty. I’ve always valued people of differing views.”

He added that “leadership means not being intimidated by different opinions.”

He thinks that as Election Day nears, people will focus more intently on the two candidates and recognize that the Democratic Party has left them and Graham is nothing but a liberal masquerading as a moderate.

He says on repeat that his family has been here for 200 years, and it’s “a district we know the rhythm of.” It’s a backhanded way of saying that Graham doesn’t belong.

Graham, meanwhile, says she’s found loads of disaffected Republicans who think Southerland is the embodiment of dysfunction. Defeating Southerland, she says, is a way to begin breaking the gridlock. Most Democratic polling shows Graham in a strong position to win.

She says she even spoke to one Republican member of Congress who urged her to defeat Southerland. She declined to say who.

The race is close enough that groups have poured roughly $8 million in television advertising into the Dothan, Alabama, and Tallahassee media markets — almost $6 million of which is coming in the last two months of the race. The spots are so pervasive that after a recent debate in Panama City, Southerland and Graham stood next to each other in a television studio watching campaign advertisements air ad nauseam.

In the final two months of the campaign, Republicans will air $2.9 million worth of ads, and Democrats will air $2.7 million. It’s a sum neither campaign can get their head around, and both sides say they wish the advertisements would come down. They fear their message is being muddled.

“We have been telling our district for months now, you’re going to see a congressional race that you’ve never seen before,” Southerland said. “That kind of money is not common here. In our media markets, Tallahassee and Panama City, that goes a long way. Especially with a governors race going on.”

Despite all the money, the contest between Southerland and Graham matters precious little when it comes to control of the House. The race — and gush of cash — helps reinforce the new phenomenon in the era of the shrinking congressional map: each seat is a prizefight.

But, more importantly, if Southerland loses to Graham, it would strip Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and McCarthy (R-Calif.) of a critical link to the conservative right.

In the waning weeks, as Southerland and Graham traverse a district that stretches across two time zones on I-10, the race is publicly cordial, but serious tension is simmering below the surface. The two hugged at a debate in Tallahassee last week and agreed on a host of policy issues. But when the two are apart, the tension appears. To underscore how nasty the contest has become, Southerland won’t even answer whether he thinks Graham is qualified to serve in Congress.

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“I’ll let the people of this district make that determination,” Southerland said in an interview. “I do not believe anyone, as a part of any qualification, should it ever be the family you are a part of. You have to stand on your own two feet. And I think the people of this district will have to determine, is she, as an individual, is she the person that they want to place their trust in to represent them in the United States House of Representatives. You know and I know that Washington, D.C., is full of headstrong people. And no one in Washington, D.C., cares about who your daddy is.”

Graham, in an interview in an office that is adorned with a painting of her father, said she has “never expected or assumed anything because I happen to have a father who has beautiful oil paintings done of him.” She said she is ready to serve “based on what I’ve done in my life, based on what I’ve experienced in my life.”

The elder Graham is, indeed, an incredibly large figure in the campaign, both behind the scenes and publicly. After debates, B.G. — as he is known by campaign aides — critiques his daughter’s performance. At a campaign roundtable at a VFW lodge last week, Bob Graham held court with a handful of veterans, discussing what he considered monumental legislation of the 20th century. During the roundtable, he interrupted his daughter at least twice to remind her she shouldn’t use acronyms around voters — “tell them what NEBA is,” he said once, and minutes later, he said “what’s an I.E?”

“Dad always says don’t use acronyms,” Gwen Graham said.

The father’s presence could help remind conservative Democrats that the party still has a place for them. And if those Democrats heed that message, Southerland could be in trouble. The district has far more registered Democrats than Republicans. Democrats — and even some Republicans — privately whisper that their internal polling shows Graham’s lead widening, putting Southerland in further peril. For Southerland to win, he has to capture the rural counties and boost his numbers in Bay County, his political stronghold, which includes Panama City. Graham supporters say they’re gaining ground there. Graham’s political base is in Tallahassee, the main urban center of the district. But Southerland’s team finds it hard to believe that any Democrat — even the daughter of a former popular politician — can overcome Obama’s overwhelming unpopularity here. Gwen Graham said Obama’s unpopularity doesn’t affect the race. Her father, in a separate interview, disagreed.

“Yeah, sure,” said Bob Graham, when asked if the president’s unpopularity seeps into this race. “I think this is true all over the country. The Republicans are trying to make this a national campaign focused on Obama as opposed to dealing with issues that are specific to individual districts and the Democratic candidate against who they’re running.”

If there is a test case in stiff-arming D.C. Democrats, it is found in Graham. She has been sharply criticizing Nancy Pelosi, the House Democratic leader, lambasting her party’s handling of the health care law, criticizing their “war on women” trope and even going as far as leaving open the possibility that she would support a Republican for speaker of the House.

“My criteria … is going to be how committed are you to really, really working across the aisle,” she said in an interview. “To really reaching out to people in the other party. Republicans the same. I’m not going to — what’s leading me in my decision as who should be the next leader is not what party you’re in. It’s how committed are you to making a difference in a change that must happen in our country.”

Southerland’s campaign message is that it’s he — not Graham — who fits the district. He says that he can be trusted to craft big-ticket legislation and reminds voters he was on the negotiating committees for the farm bill and highway bill — both critical for northern Florida. In appearances here, he talks about serving on conference committees — D.C. speak that has Democrats giggling.

He tries to beat back the narrative that he is bad for women by reminding people his business partners are his mother and sister and that he has four daughters. His campaign acknowledges that he made a mistake by participating in a men-only fundraiser but says he has had several women-only events.

“The choice here is crystal clear,” Southerland said. “I believe in greater personal freedoms, I believe that America’s future lies in empowering its people. Gwen is one that takes opposite of that. She clearly believes America’s future lies with empowering Washington, D.C., and it’s really no more complicated than that.”

Graham’s future is on many Democrats’ minds. They say if she wins Florida’s second district, she is a perfect candidate for a statewide race. Top donors have been surprised by how she’s performed thus far.

“I was a little skeptical,” said Don Hinkle, a Tallahassee lawyer and one of the nation’s top Democratic donors, speaking of her bid for the House. “Until I talked to some of my Republican friends who love Bob Graham and don’t like Southerland. And then when I went by the headquarters and there were 20 volunteers and the vibe was Obamaesque, in the sense everyone was excited, they were all grabbing pads and running to knock on doors, I’m a believer. I think she can do it.”

And Republicans believe Southerland will pull it out in the end but wish he would punch back a little harder and tie Graham to Obama and Pelosi.

“I think Steve would be better off to come out early on to say, ‘Hey, that’s not true,’” said Jim Peacock, a Republican leader in Jackson County, while standing outside a small Republican Party rally here in Marianna. “‘I don’t fly first-class. I can’t buy first-class tickets.’ That kind of stuff. Tell exactly what transpired. It takes up time, but hey, I’m not running this campaign.”

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