A new Forum Research poll suggests that Mayor Rob Ford may have the upper hand — or at least popular support — when he sits down to talk about Scarborough subway routes with Premier Kathleen Wynne, probably next week.

The poll found Toronto residents were evenly split in their approval/disapproval of the province’s two-stop subway route to the Scarborough City Centre.

But when presented with the option of the longer, council-approved route to Sheppard Ave., respondents clearly preferred that plan. Half supported the three-stop, underground subway to Sheppard Ave., and only 27 per cent preferred the less-costly provincial plan, which calls for mostly above-ground travel on the old dedicated SRT route.

Even the seven-stop LRT that council rejected in favour of a subway garnered more support than the provincial plan: 52 per cent compared with 19 per cent.

Respondents probably recognize that having an LRT would mean a shorter walk to reach the line, Forum president Lorne Bozinoff told the Toronto Star.

The poll showed the provincial plan “was deeply unpopular, even when compared to the much-maligned LRT,” he said in a news release.

Although Queen’s Park is contributing the bulk of the subway funding — $1.48 billion — 52 per cent of poll respondents said city council should have the final say on which subway plan gets built. Only 31 per cent said the province should make that call.

On Tuesday, Ford said he supports the plan council endorsed in July so that the subway can loop into transit on Sheppard Ave., where Metrolinx plans to build an LRT. The mayor wants a subway there. But he said, “That’s an argument for another day.”

“Obviously I want to do what council approved and take it from there. Again, I’ve got to talk to the premier, so I don’t want to paint anyone into a corner, and I’ll let you know after I talk to the premier what we’ve decided,” said the mayor.

Forum’s interactive telephone poll is considered accurate within 3 per cent 19 times out of 20. It was conducted on Friday and Saturday, prior to Monday’s announcement that Ottawa would contribute $660 million to the Scarborough subway.

The city’s preferred subway plan is likely to mean higher property taxes and development charges to pay the balance of the cost, about $900 million.

Ford said he would support a maximum tax increase of 1 per cent over four years. City manager Joe Pennachetti, however, said an increase of 1.6 per cent might be required.

“This seems to be pushing it,” said Scarborough Councillor Gary Crawford, a member of Ford's executive.

Regardless, the plan will probably require the city to borrow hundreds of millions of dollars over 30 years, using the tax increase to pay back the interest and principal. A tax hike alone, without the debt, would not suffice, since a 1 per cent tax increase generates less than $30 million per year.

“The portion of the city cost that is debt financed will depend on the timing of property tax increases for the project,” said city spokesman Alex Mozo. “The sooner the increases are made, the more can be accumulated in reserves before project spending begins in earnest, and the less debt required.”

The debate over the tax increase may not be resolved for months. Crawford said council might send the issue to the budget committee to consider in the broader context of the city’s 2014 budget — one in which, Crawford noted, Ford also wants to see a 10 per cent cut in the land transfer tax.

At Queen’s Park, Wynne reiterated that it was Ontario’s transit investment that persuaded Ottawa to contribute to the project.

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“Now it’s up to the city to decide what it is going to do, but our $1.4 billion stays on the table. We will build subway in Scarborough,” she said.

Progressive Conservative MPP Doug Holyday said it’s time to “get on with the job” and start tunneling.

NDP MPP Rosario Marchese (Trinity-Spadina) said all three levels of government deserve blame for the delays. “The people of Scarborough aren’t interested in which rooster can crow the loudest,” he said, “they just want good public transportation.”

With files from Robert Benzie

TTC’s take on the two subway plans

A staff report to the TTC board on Wednesday compares the council-endorsed tunneled subway to Sheppard, which was designed by the TTC, with the province’s plan to extend the Bloor-Danforth line a shorter distance to the Scarborough City Centre.

It concludes there’s no clear benefit to the provincial proposal, but there are some distinct disadvantages. As well as fewer stops, the province’s above-ground transit would be more vulnerable to weather and would require closing the SRT for three years, plus one end of the existing subway.

Cost: The report compared the cost of the two subway route options, considering both as far as the SCC and to Sheppard. The provincial proposal would cost $1.8 billion to the SCC, compared with $1.9 billion on the city’s route. Taking the provincial plan to Sheppard would cost $2.9 billion, compared with $2.5 billion for the city subway.

What’s missing: The TTC concluded that the province’s feasibility study failed to include the following costs to reach the SCC: $112 million for trains; $45 million to $210 million for train storage; $28 million for re-signaling; $63 million for power substations; $21 million to run shuttle buses during construction; $48 million to extend the life of the SRT until subway construction starts.

The TTC also asked Metrolinx to estimate trip times; walking distance from the proposed TTC bus terminal and GO station to the subway; and the precise location of the bus terminal.