Bold Blue Campaigns Conducted 500 live cell phone and landline telephone interviews w ith likely voters in the upcoming 2018 November General Election. Poll was conducted September 22-September 27, 2018. Respondents were selected at random, with responses validated via voter file data, and then weighted based on a projected 2 018 turnout model. Expected margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5% with a 95% confidence level

In an increasingly competitive open seat contest, Ross Spano has a slim 49% to 46% lead over Kristen Carlson thanks to strong support from the Republican base in the district (96%), reliable older voters 50+ (57%), and men (63%). Carlson is significantly overperforming the historical Dem expectation with women (57%) and winning independent voters (48% to 34% over Spano), while also taking 92% of Democrats. The 5% of undecided vo ters are primarily younger voters, independents, and voters of color, meaning that the Democrat Carlson likely still has some room to grow, while Spano will have to rely on motivating the GOP base to turn out to fend off a potential wave result. 90%

of those surveyed were “very likely to vote” or “almost certain” suggesting voter turnout

should be stable and on the higher side, compared to a typical midterm. In a more Republican turnout environment,

Spano’s lead w

ould expand slightly 51% to 45%. However, based on current trends 49% to 46% is the weighted result, considering this R+6 PVI Congressional District was won by both Donald Trump and Mitt Romney.

Spano is also slightly better known than Carlson, with 16% of voters expressing a “do not know”

response regarding approval. 20% of v oters

expressed the same for Carlson. Spano’s approvals

were 47% approve to 37% disapprove, while Carlson was 42% approve to 38% disapprove.

Poor Approval Ratings for Donald Trump Weigh On GOP Chances in FL-15

Similar to the national average, just 40% likel y of voters in FL-15 approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as President, compared to 49% disapproval. Another Trump-related question

tested, regarding approval for the President’s proposed border wall with Mexico to deter illegal