During the LinuxWorld expo in San Francisco, I met with Linux Foundation president Jim Zemlin to talk about the future of the open-source Linux operating system and the impact it will have on emerging mobile and embedded technologies.

Zemlin sees significant opportunities for Linux adoption on low-cost subnotebooks and mobile Internet devices. These products are beginning to transform the personal computing market and could broadly redefine consumer expectations for hardware cost and mobility. Existing Linux-based subnotebooks, like the Asus Eee PC, have experienced an impressive degree of popularity. The success of the Eee has compelled other hardware makers to get into the game, spawning a wide variety of competing products.

Linux is an ideal choice in this space because it eliminates software licensing costs and can be pared down to offer faster boot times and consume less storage than Windows. Linux-based subnotebooks are becoming increasingly like appliances and can take advantage of cloud computing to deliver rich functionality without much resource overhead.

As this trend continues to expand, Zemlin believes that we will see the emergence of innovative new business models that shift the role of the devices away from general-purpose computing and reposition them as vectors for delivery of highly specialized content and services. This will allow vendors to create new revenue streams that could be used to subsidize the cost of the hardware and the connectivity that ties the hardware into the cloud.



Jim Zemlin

Although this view is radically antithetical to some conventional notions of convergence, there is already some evidence that it works. The best example, Zemlin says, is Amazon's Linux-based Kindle e-book reader. The Kindle uses unique hardware that is highly specialized for its intended purpose, it offers free connectivity that is subsidized by content sales, and the device itself is relatively affordable.

Zemlin thinks that subnotebooks could become like "fashion accessories" as the prices drop and make them into easy impulse buys for consumers. For instance, he suggests that a major retailer like Target could make a specially branded back-to-school subnotebook aimed at young students. Another example he suggests is a mobile device for sports enthusiasts that offers tight integration with (potentially ad-supported) web services that show instant replays, scores, statistics, and game schedules.

The subnotebook is currently the dominant form factor in low-cost Linux computing products, but the range of possibilities extends far beyond that. An illustration of this point is Intel's expansive vision for Moblin, a Linux-based software platform designed for devices that use the company's Atom processors. Intel says that Atom and Moblin provide a unified hardware and software platform that can be adopted almost anywhere, including in-vehicle "infotainment" systems, medical instruments, media centers, handheld tablet devices, and all sorts of other products (for a pretty sexy look at what Intel has in mind, check out the Moblin concept video).

Set-top boxes are another area where there is huge potential for Linux-based platforms that leverage the cloud-oriented content and service business model envisioned by Zemlin. A good example of a compelling Linux-based set-top solution is the Neuros OSD, which uses an open Linux-based media platform for ARM devices that Neuros is developing in collaboration with TI.

Regardless of whether Linux ever gains traction on the desktop, it's easy to imagine a future where the open source operating system is everywhere else. It could become the universal platform that runs both the massive underlying infrastructure of the cloud and the myriad smart devices that soak up the cloud's data and services.