Mr. Volcker, now an adviser to Mr. Obama, is remembered as an economic hero and has been suggested as a possible Treasury secretary in the Obama administration even though he is 81 years old.

But in the early 1980s Mr. Volcker was blamed for causing a severe recession that began early in Mr. Reagan’s tenure and continued through November 1982. The Republicans suffered losses in the 1982 midterm elections, and Democrats thought they were in good shape to win back the White House in 1984.

Instead, the economy was clearly in recovery by then, and inflation was down sharply. Mr. Reagan was re-elected in a landslide, and was so successful that he became the first president since Calvin Coolidge to leave office and be succeeded by a member of his own party, George H. W. Bush.

George W. Bush, the son of the elder Bush, came into office determined to follow the Reagan course and not make the mistakes that his father had made, which led to his being a one-term president. He too confronted a weak economy early in his administration, and like Mr. Reagan he was able to push through substantial tax cuts as a way of stimulating the economy.

But unlike Mr. Reagan, who later allowed taxes to be raised to combat soaring budget deficits, the younger Mr. Bush refused to contemplate such an action. When the economy was booming, he saw no need to apply the brakes, and neither did the Federal Reserve chairman he had inherited, Alan Greenspan. Had they been willing to do so, the current bust might have been avoided, or at least been much milder.

Like Mr. Reagan, Mr. Obama will have to confront taxes in his first year. The Bush administration’s large tax cut in 2001 was temporary  a strategy that under Senate rules made it possible to push through the cut without having to win Democratic votes  and needs to be changed in 2009. Had Mr. Bush chosen a bipartisan approach, the tax cut would have been smaller, and the new Congress would not have to pass a tax bill immediately.

In passing a tax bill, the Congress and Mr. Obama will have to balance the long-term deficit problem with the need for shorter-term stimulus.