Note than in the last fight, the Mercy of LA Valiant was eliminated, dropping the win probability to 46%. However, the LA Valiant continued on to win the game. A likely cause for the the wrong prediction is that although Mercy was killed by Seoul and was part of the first three kills, it happened too late in the fight to have a significant effect in the overall outcome of the match. I had tried to capture the timing of the kills during a fight by limiting the deaths taken into account to only the first three -- but after seeing this, an improvement might be to add a time element to the features, say, the kills in the first 10 seconds after a fight starts.





Also, even with the amount of data collected, you can see from the video above that there is so much more happening that what we captured. Although this is a start, it would be interesting to see fight win predictions in real-time using factors like individual player stats, player positioning, objective status, etc.



