France was, at some points, compelled by this double modernization process to launch three major weapons programs to remain at the cutting edge: the Leclerc main battle tank, the Tiger combat helicopter, and the Rafale fighter aircraft. As the global strategic uncertainty was low and the military threat remained clearly identified, these three weapons systems were designed for a high-intensity conflict in continental Europe, just as their predecessors had been. For French policy-makers, the increasing overall quality of new Soviet equipment had to be countered by an increasing use of electronic and computer technologies, overtaking previous generations in terms of battle management, situation awareness, and fire control. By doing so, creating a proficient ratio against Soviet units would become more achievable than it was with previous hardware generations.

This perception of how to answer the Soviet threat during this last Cold War decade coincided with the French state golden age regarding its involvement in large technological programs, such as the Concord supersonic airliner and the civilian nuclear sector. Within the state structure itself, three weapons programs were strongly supported; more than ever, they were perceived as symbols of state’s greatness.[29] One should therefore see them as the result of both a strategic imperative and efforts of elites embedded in state bureaucracy.[30]

The Tiger combat helicopter was launched in cooperation with West Germany in 1984, after preliminary studies that began in 1976. France and the German Federal Republic had to replace, respectively, their 261 Gazelle and 300 Bo-105 light utility helicopters with a heavier combat machine. The purpose of the Tiger program was to stop any Soviet armored columns advancing into Western territories. The Leclerc main battle tank program officially started in 1986, after two decades of studies, technological feasibility assessments, and polemical reports. Since its conception, the purpose of the new tank was twofold: to replace the 1,200 AMX-30 and AMX-13 French tanks in service and to field “the best tank of the world” in terms of technological achievements (able to fight most recent Soviet tanks with a 1:3 ratio).[31] Finally, the Rafale combat aircraft was officially initiated in 1988, after more than a decade of studies and an aborted cooperation with the United Kingdom and West Germany. Here as well, the purpose of the program was twofold: to replace all Jaguar, Mirage F-1, Crusader, Super-Etendard, Mirage III, Mirage 2000, and Mirage IV combat aircraft in service (rationalizing the combat aircraft fleet) and to deploy one of the most capable multi-role fighter aircraft in the world.

The Strategic Vacuum

Completely unanticipated by the majority of policy experts, the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union between 1989 and 1991 signified the disappearance of any major military threat from Eastern Europe, for years if not decades.[32] In the space of two years, the industrial war paradigm that prevailed during 45 years in every western military establishment vanished, to be replaced some years later by a war amongst the population paradigm.[33] The world entered into a new era, where traditional landmarks of military power became heavily blurred, where states of war and peace are deeply entangled, as are combatants and civilians. Strategic uncertainty became a key variable.

The disappearance of the massive Soviet armored waves in Eastern Europe and also the vague edges of 1990s asymmetric operations applied structurally to military planning. In just two years, the French General Directorate for Armaments found itself with three Grands Programmes still being developed, under test, not yet fielded, but with no strategic threats to answer anymore. Despite many initial difficulties, notably related to aborted cooperation, these three programs continued through the same long-term planning logic already at work, due to a heavy path dependence of the French military establishment and the pressure of sector elites.[34] Nevertheless, such major programs appeared to be heavy constraints to deal with for the French Defense Ministry, especially as political spheres decided to reduce the size of combat forces and the overall defense effort. Consequently, these new systems being more expensive than their predecessors (between two and eight times) and military spending stagnating, the programs’ outcomes could only be challenged in terms of purchased quantities.[35] Because of the resources already engaged in such programs during years (if not decades), cancelling them would have been impossible. Therefore, we can consider that the French Grands Programmes approach failed to address such strategic disruption and themselves in itself in an onerous fiscal logic.

In the 1980s, it was planned to order more than 1,500 Leclerc main battle tanks to replace older AMX-30B2 in service in cavalry regiments.[36] As the consequence of strategic uncertainty, this number fell to 650 in 1993.[37] The whole production chain became a financial hole for the French state. Three-hundred and eighty-eight Leclerc tanks were sold to the United Arab Emirates, in an unsuccessful attempt to make the production sustainable. In 2001, 406 Leclerc had to be fielded until 2007 for the French forces, less than a third of what was planned during the Cold War. This reduction in the ordered quantities lead predictably to major costs overruns. Planned to cost $5.6 million in 1982, a single machine reached $10.1 million in 1993 and $19.6 million in 2001 including the tank itself as well as infrastructure, ammunition, spare parts, and crew training.[38]

...we can consider that the French Grands Programmes approach failed to address such strategic disruption and trapped itself into a very onerous logic.

The case for the Tiger helicopter is similar. Originally, the French Army Light Aviation planned to order 215 aircraft. Acquisition targets then fell to 180 and 120 afterwards in 1998, and 80 in 2001.[39] In 2013, the newly released White Book registered only 60 Tiger helicopters. For the Bundeswehr, decreasing acquisition targets were analogous. While the German Army’s 1984 plan intended to purchase 212 Tigers, German officials wanted 140 machines in 1991 and 75 two years later.[40] Finally, only 57 Tiger UHT will be bought, one quarter of the original objectives. Consequently, costs rose here as well. At the beginning of the program, one Tiger was expected to cost $20 million for both nations, whatever the variant.41] In the French case, prices reached $32.2 million to $42.4 million depending on the variant in 2015.[42]