So, a nice proxy war with Russia is looming on the horizon. Russia is sending weapons and troops into Syria to support and train the Assad regime’s troops. At least that’s according to the US State Department. The US is sending in support to the rebels. At least that according to the Russian government. Awesome. This couldn’t end badly.

It appears that some Republicans and Democrats are preparing to officially condemn Russia’s actions. Many of them are even calling to pull out of START and other arms treaties the US has with Russia. This would basically end 20+ years of improving relations between the two powers, effectively creating a new Cold War. Frankly, I am suspicious. Putin is no moron; he is a brilliant politician and strategist. He’s also a pragmatic, Stalin wanna-be. I have a theory here and it’s not a pleasant one. Bare with me.

Putin knows that the US cannot afford to send money or troops into Syria, even though public opinion may support the rebels. We don’t have the money, we don’t have the troops, and we sure as hell don’t have the public support for another middle-eastern conflict. Putin knows that if Russia starts posturing, then the average American will want a ‘tougher stance’ against Russia. He also knows that the average American will see a Republican (Romney) as more likely to do so. After all, he already said that Russia is America’s biggest external threat. So he does this when (a) we can’t send in enough power and (b) it could hurt our current president. Putin also knows – as well as any independent, intelligent analyst – that the Republicans’ plans for ‘recovery’ from our recession will fail. He knows that when they fail, we will have to pull our military out of almost everything it’s in. IF we’re dumb enough to get involved in Syria, while still in Afghanistan and Iraq, it will put even more strain on our economy and when it fails, Russia will be there to fill in the military void.

There are also some other side effects of this whole thing. Not the least of which are that the US will look so bad in the eyes of the international community that it will be decades before anyone else listens to us again – like Russia after the Berlin Wall fell –, it will cripple NATO and give Russia more power and voice in the UN.

Now, you may ask, “is Russia ready to do that? Really?” And that is a good point. Most of us would look at ourselves in a similar economic and military situation as Russia and say ‘no’. You, however, are not thinking like a Russian – leadership, anyhow; I won’t presume to know how every Russian thinks. This is the nation that burned it’s own capital when Napoleon got to it, just so that they could watch the French freeze and then kill them; this is the nation that started on the defense in Poland in 1939 and fell back, dragging the Nazi military juggernaut the same way and burned their own fields and factories. Both of these sacrifices ended in victory. Stalin said it best, when a reporter once asked him (paraphrasing), ‘If it comes to war with Hitler, do you really think you can win?’ and Stalin replied, “Of course I’ll win; I’ve got more men, than he’s got bullets.”

Think about what the USSR was like during the height of the Cold War. Remember that Russia loves a strongman leader. How much stronger can you get as a Russian leader than to thumb your nose at the United States? If the US falls for Putin’s global power grab, we’re going to be in a lot of trouble; financially, militarily, societally. We cannot back out of our treaties. We cannot ‘start’ this.

Here’s a link on just one of the stories on this:

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/12/12190111-clinton-says-russia-is-sending-gunships-to-syria-could-escalate-conflict-quite-dramatically?lite