Toronto Raptors head coach Nick Nurse isn’t coy about his expectations for Pascal Siakam, especially in the wake of Kawhi Leonard’s offseason departure.

“I just think his next step in progression is being ‘The Man,’” Nurse told Yahoo Sports Canada. “Instead of being a complementary guy next to ‘The Man,’ he’s gotta be ‘The Man’ — the primary scorer and the primary option and the late-game scorer.”

By his third season, Siakam was already an effective secondary option in the Raptors’ championship run. Despite running through the gauntlet of elite defenders — Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jonathan Issac and Draymond Green are probably the planet’s best bet against the Monstars — Siakam still averaged an efficient 19 points per game. Toronto went 7-1 when Siakam scored over 22 points as compared to 9-7 when he didn’t. In a snapshot, he was the bellwether.

Taking the next step, however, will be the hardest. It’s one thing to win Most Improved Player, it’s another to become All-NBA calibre. But if the Raptors have any hope of defending their title, Siakam must continue his exponential growth.

Reason for promise

The most fundamental skill for any go-to player is the ability to create an efficient shot, and Siakam has that down pat.

Siakam scored 0.97 points per isolation last season, which ties him with Blake Griffin and LeBron James in terms of efficiency. He didn’t do it often — Siakam totalled 121 isolations over 80 games — but that’s likely because most of his 1-on-1 opportunities are better categorized as post-ups. On that front, Siakam scored 1.08 points per possession across 148 post-ups, which ranked third among the most efficient post-up scorers last season.

Siakam is a walking mismatch in the post. He’s quick enough to drive past most bigs, and his 7-foot-4 wingspan allows him to shoot over top most wings. Siakam can finish with either hand, he creates separation through an assortment of creative and balletic post moves, and his soft touch around the rim allows him to connect on bankers and floaters from odd and unpredictable angles. Next to Leonard, Siakam attacking the basket was the Raptors’ best source of offense.

As his confidence grew, Siakam quietly began to test the limits of his game, which included more ball-handling responsibilities. Siakam finished 65 possessions out of pick-and-roll — a small but not insignificant number — and scored at a rate of 1.12 points per possession, which ranked ahead of even Leonard. Maintaining those results to a larger sample will be a monumental challenge, but the Raptors will be willing to live with the growing pains.

been thinking about what siakam would look like as the go-to scorer, and aside from post-ups/transition/corner threes it will probably be a lot of this: pic.twitter.com/ebri02mjK0 — William Lou (@william_lou) August 15, 2019

Even without adding the pick-and-roll element to his game, Siakam is still an easy bet to top the 20-point plateau. Siakam scored 17 per game last season off an assortment of transition baskets, catch-and-shoot threes, and the occasional 1-on-1 moves, but his usage was generally low. Siakam only finished 20.8 percent of his team’s possessions while he was on the floor, which ranks as the second-lowest mark among all players who scored 16 or more points last season.

With Leonard gone, expect Siakam’s usage to skyrocket. Nurse runs an egalitarian offense predicated on crisp ball movement, but the ball tends to end up in the hands of the best scorer. Last season, Siakam’s usage jumped to 25 percent with Leonard off the floor from February onward. But despite more touches and a greater responsibility to create, Siakam wasn’t any less efficient as his true-shooting percentage remained elite at 59 percent.

More improvements needed

Having established himself as an interior scorer, Nurse says the next step in Siakam’s development will take place on the perimeter.

“He really can play anywhere,” Nurse said of Siakam. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we almost make him like a point forward, where he’ll handle the ball a lot up the floor.”

Nurse also suggested that Siakam could see extended run in supersized lineups alongside Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol, a look that famously helped the Raptors overcome the Philadelphia 76ers in the second round of the playoffs.

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