Last year, Lincoln was not so kind to us.

Down 11 points with a little more than six minutes remaining, the (9-8) Nebraska Cornhuskers would finish the game on an 18 to 6 run to upset the No. 11 Indiana Hoosiers, 70-69, sending IU to its third straight conference loss after a Jordan Hulls desperation three clanked off back of the rim as time expired.

I certainly haven’t forgotten having to watch their student section storm the court, and I don’t think Jordan Hulls or anyone else from last year’s team has, either.

This season, however, things are a little a bit different.

The Movement is in full swing, Indiana is ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll (No. 2 in the Coaches’), and this game is at Assembly Hall (okay – so maybe that’s a big difference).

Surprisingly, Nebraska has three conference wins, but two of those have come against Penn State, and the third was at home against Northwestern.

Currently, the Cornhuskers are 12-12 overall, 2-6 on the road, and are 0-6 in games against top 25 teams, all of them losses of 10 points or more.

While I’m not really in the habit of guaranteeing victories, this is about as close as it gets; the Hoosiers’ chances of losing this game are incredibly remote. Below, I’ll highlight exactly why.

FOUR FACTORS: AWAY VS. HOME

eFG% TO% OR% FTR INDIANA (home) 58.93% 20.15% 40.82% 35.25% NEBRASKA (away) 45.15% 17.66% 24.43% 19.59%

Rather incredibly, Indiana has an eFG% that’s nearly 14% higher than that of Nebraska’s, and it shows. On the road, the Cornhuskers average a dismal 53.3 PPG, while the Hoosiers continue to light up Assembly Hall at a blazing 86.9 PPG.

That’s a margin of more than 33 points per game.

Nationally, the Hoosiers are 2nd in average points scored (83.2 per game), while Nebraska is near the bottom of Division I at a rather troubled 333rd in average points scored (59.0 per game).

Indiana also crashes the offensive glass and the free throw line at roughly 16.5% and 15.5% more often than Nebraska, translating into five more offensive rebounds and more than 13 more free throw attempts per game.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise at this point, as I’ve often written about the Hoosiers’ turnover woes, but this is the one area where Nebraska is generally better. Notably, they only average 10 turnovers per game on the road, compared to Indiana’s 14 per game at home.

Indiana demonstrated superb ball security in the half court set with only ten turnovers against one of toughest defenses in the country against Ohio State (ranked 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency), so I expect the Hoosiers to able to limit their turnovers against the Cornhuskers as well (84th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency).

Ultimately, it shouldn’t have too much of an impact because Indiana is so much more dominant than Nebraska in nearly every other area of the game. Barring some sort of catastrophe, the Hoosiers should roll in this one.

Prediction: Indiana 82, Nebraska 57