45% of South Carolina Republicans made up their mind in the last week and only 16% went for Trump.

He underperformed several polls and Rubio with Cruz beat him.

As others drop out of the race, including Bush, that works against Trump.

But Trump benefits as long as Rubio and Cruz stay in together. One of them will have to get out for it to matter.

It is, however, really striking, that Trump has such a high floor, but a really low relative ceiling.

Keep in mind that only 4% of Super PAC money has been spent against Trump. It is not that normal rules do not apply, it is that no one has applied the rules to Trump.

That changes after tonight.