The latest BMG poll for the Herald reveals an overwhelming majority of Scots oppose the idea of a second independence referendum to be held this year.

The results show, with don’t knows excluded, that more than six in ten Scots (61.5%) said they were against a new vote in 2017 compared with just 38.5% in favour of a 2017 independence referendum.

A closer look at the data reveals that support for an independence referendum in 2017 is strongest among the young. A majority (52%) of those aged 16-34 are in favour of a 2017 vote, whereas just 20% of those aged 65 and over share the same view. Interestingly, less than two thirds (64%) of SNP voters are in favour of a vote in 2017 whereas 27% are against (10% don’t know).

Readers can interrogate the data for themselves by toggling with the drop down menu below.

The poll also reveals when those who say don’t know or prefer not to say are removed, support for an independent Scotland is at 45.5%, with 54.5% opposed – mirroring BMG’s last Scottish independence polling in October 2016 and almost the same as the 2014 referendum result.

A closer look at the data reveals support for independence is strongest among the young. A majority (51%) of those aged 16-34 are in favour of independence, whereas just 25% of those aged 65 and over share the same view. A clear poverty divide is also evident with the poorest Scots much more likely to support an independent Scotland than those with average and higher annual household incomes. Almost half (48%) of those from households on less than £25,000 per annum are in favour of independence (41% No, 10% DK/PNTS), compared to just 35% of those from households on more than £25,000 (53% No, 11% DK/PNTS).

Eight in ten (80%) SNP supporters are in favour of Scottish Independence (13% No, 7% DK/PNTS) compared to just 2% of Scottish Conservative supporters, 9% of Scottish Lib Dem supporters and 15% of Scottish Labour supporters. Of those who said they would currently vote to remain a member of the EU, the results for independence are polarising with 45% in favour of Scottish Independence and 44% against. Of those who said they would currently vote Leave, three in ten (30%) are in favour of independence whereas almost two thirds are against (65%).

Readers can interrogate the data for themselves by toggling with the drop down menu below.

Dr Michael Turner, Research Director at BMG Research, said “More than two years since the independence referendum, and it’s ‘as you were’ for Scots; with no discernible movement in support for either side.

However, given that Scotland has gone to the polls on no less than five occasions in the past two and a half years it is perhaps unsurprising that our latest poll for The Herald shows a clear majority of Scots are against another independence referendum being held within the next year.”

An article based on these polling results, released by the Herald, can be found here.

Fieldwork dates and methodology can be found here.

A full breakdown of these results can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

polling@bmgresearch.co.uk

@BMGResearch

0121 333 6006

Lauren Harris – Senior Research Executive