YEREVAN, July 15. /ARKA/. Despite some risks that are still posed by raw materials prices and things in the global economy, certain figures recorded in the Eurasian Economic Union member countries in the first quarter of this year give grounds for placing on record a gradual adaptation to shocks in the recent few years, the Eurasian Development Bank says in its macroeconomic review.



“Adverse things in the Eurasian Economic Union member countries’ economies, which got worse in 2015 amid the falling prices for raw materials, mitigated a little and the region countries’ economies started demonstrating some improvement in their macroeconomic and leading indicators in the first quarter of 2016 as well as in strengthening in foreign exchange rates, lowering inflation outlooks and stabilization of financial markets,” the review says.



It is said in the review that although the flow of money transfers from Russia to Kyrgyzstan restored in the 1st Q 2016, the stream of remittances from Russia to Armenia and Tajikistan continued dwindling.



However, this factor is partially offset by a considerable growth of Tajikistan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Russia’s exports to their fellow Eurasian Economic Union member countries.



For example, Armenia’s exports to Russia grew 95.8% in Jan-Apr 2016, compare with the same period a year earlier, and the Eurasian Economic Union’s share in Armenia’s total export rose from 12% in Jan-Apr 2015 to 19.5%.



The Eurasian Development Bank’s specialists think inflation will subside from 12.8% to 6.3% in the countries.



The union countries’ central banks left key rates unchanged or downed them as inflation pressure mitigated.



The bank's specialists think that a weak economic activity and stability in prices and foreign exchange rates in the second quarter 2016 may contribute to mitigation of monetary conditions.



Downing of rates as well may speed up the lending growth, and this may give an impetus to restoration of investments and household consumption.



The countries may also have their GDP improved – from 3.1% decline in 2015 to 0.9% decline in 2016 and to 0.8% growth in 2017.



“It means that despite the troublesome beginning in January 2016, the first quarter of the year gives grounds for cautious optimism about further recovery of economy and trade turnover growth in the Eurasian Economic Union region,” the review says. --0----





11:41 15.07.2016