The Journalist Cover Story released Aug. 26, 2015

Resisting Soong the Buddha’s Palm, Eric Chu is just one hand clapping

Half a year ago he was the new blue castle. Where is he now?

“Soong the Buddha’s Palm” is running for president. Eric Chu (朱立倫) learned he would do so in mid-July. But charged with the duty of resolving this assault on the KMT, Chu—the dragon’s-head general of the blue army—could only yell entreaties into a megaphone, saying things like “If we work together we will not reach the point of despair, and we will absolutely not stop cooperating.” In truth his hands were already tied. He was like one hand clapping. But the Buddha’s Palm isn’t aimed at Chu: Soong intends to strike down Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九).

Some blues are lamenting unceasingly about the KMT having come to this point, saying, “If only we had taken the path Eric Chu set out half a year ago, the KMT might not be in the dire straits it is today. James Soong (宋楚瑜) might not even have had room to run for president.”

In mid-January, when Chu took the party chairmanship, he explicitly declared the KMT had to become an “open party” that “stands on the side of mainstream opinion” and “closed its distance with the grassroots.” He panned “disparities in policy promotion.” He expressed doubts that cross-strait policy was dealing psychological blows and widening the wealth gap, and proposed reviewing it. He even said that the party must get rid of “any inappropriate party assets” it possesses.

Chu hoped the KMT would become a “centrist party,” review several policies that did not have public support, and adjust cross-strait policy to dispel doubts and worries it had caused. Chu was very clear that in recent years the KMT had made many blue supporters lose hope and so they were unwilling to vote for it anymore. He wanted to recover those blues the party had lost because of their dissatisfaction with the Ma administration. He wanted to preserve the party’s status as majority party and said that meant it had to take a different road.

But Chu’s envisioned KMT was completely at odds with the party-state framework established by Ma Ying-jeou, where the party is an auxiliary organ of the government. Because Chu’s party and Ma’s government were at odds, Chu never had the last word. The true power was still behind the scenes, in the hands of “the party member with the greatest political authority,” President Ma. Policy was still decided by the Presidential Office and Executive Yuan, so it was unsynchronized with Chu’s party’s proposals. Although Chu was the chairman, he did not have the slightest influence over policymaking. It was just too difficult for the KMT to turn over a new leaf. There was no chance for “Chu’s path” to be taken.

Blue camp sources exclaim that Chu gave up on running party affairs, and the major reason was obviously differences with the administration as well as the Ma-Wang conflict. Chu wanted to promote Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) as the party’s presidential candidate, and the strongest force that blocked him from doing so was the government elite. In the end Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) came forward with a fake campaign that was turned into the real thing when the entire deep-blue wing of the party lined up behind her. Hers was the completely opposite direction from what Chu wanted to take. He originally wanted to end green-blue antagonism, but instead the party’s presidential candidate is moving to deepen it.

Consider an alternate reality where the KMT nominated Wang Jin-pyng of the native Taiwanese wing, and President Ma was willing to set aside differences in the name of party unity. The KMT would then walk the road of openness and centrism set out by Eric Chu, win back its lost traditional supporters, and keep native Taiwanese in the blue fold. Even if it still lost the election, it would still have a shot at maintaining its legislative majority. “This is what Eric Chu had in mind when he proposed amending the constitution to restore the Legislature’s prerogative to approve the premier!” one source says: The key consideration was to preserve the KMT’s political power and ability to guide policy after the coming election.

In this universe, would Soong still have room to run for president? Blues in the real world are lamenting the re-emergence of the KMT-PFP conflict and the loss of the Chu path. Knowledgeable sources say that Soong communicated clearly to the KMT in mid-July that he would run for president, and they knew what his plan was: He was waiting to see if the party really would nominate Hung.

And then, in advance of the party congress, there was a big move to throw Chang Shuo-wen (張碩文), Lee Ching-yuan (李慶元), Chi Kuo-tung (紀國棟), and two others out of the party, with Chu making an atypically open declaration that “We will not allow those carrying the blue flag to oppose it! We will not allow those who are in the blue camp before the election to combine with the green camp after it!”

According to a knowledgeable source, these strong words were not for Soong, but for other KMT members. Knowing Soong’s run was unavoidable, Chu needed to swing a big stick and make hard threats in order to hold his party together. Otherwise it would capsize and he would be held responsible. Chu was very clear that Hung’s nomination would open the door to Soong, but with things as they were, Chu now felt he had to support Hung until the bitter end and draw a clear line in the sand for the party regarding Buddha’s Palm Soong.

Soong’s candidacy now cannot be changed. The KMT is naturally the most damaged by it. Chu’s party central cannot see any way to respond to it. They can only do their business calmly. When he said “If we work together we will not reach the point of despair, and we will absolutely not stop cooperating,” Chu showed a velvet glove and seemed to still hold out hope about Soong. Party insiders indicate that party central is well aware that Soong’s candidacy is like extra snow on top of the avalanche atop Hung. What they are most worried about is not the presidential race but the possibility of a collapse of the party’s legislative caucus in the next election.

The two blue-camp leaders who have the deepest relationships with the local grassroots are Wang Jin-pyng and James Soong. Ma’s governance over these past years has strongly offended local factions, sources said. Chu wanted to recover factional support for the KMT after he took over, but he has helplessly watched the party walk toward a deeper blue identity instead of further openness. He forfeited the opportunity to stabilize the party’s prospects and gave Soong an opening.

Since Soong declared his candidacy and began journeying across the country to campaign, formerly “iron-blooded party members” have come out to greet him and even publicly accompanied him. Yet Chu’s KMT party central has been quiet. Party members say with frustration that this is because the party doesn’t want to further expand the conflict between itself and the PFP. If the KMT forces local faction leaders to take sides between Soong and Hung, the KMT will inevitably be hurt even more severely than it has been already.

Soong believes that Chu already doesn’t have enough bargaining chips at hand to resist him. Chu has irresolvable conflicts with three major players in his own party: with President Ma who is running the national government, with Hung Hsiu-chu who has authority over the party’s presidential campaign, and with the party’s legislative candidates who are at odds with him about the allocation of party assets to their campaigns. What’s worse, Chu’s authority and influence within the party were severely damaged even further recently when the bribery scandals of his former deputy mayor Hsu Chih-chien (許志堅) were revealed.

Chu’s biggest worry is that Soong will use his local influence and relationships to break the native Taiwanese faction off from the KMT and then field more candidates in the northern districts where the KMT is still competitive. This would further cut into the KMT’s reduced future caucus. The scarce amount of power the party will actually have one year from now is cause for alarm among its members.

Chu may regret taking the party chair. His standing and power within the blue camp have fallen unimaginably over the past half-year. Soong is not even trying to topple him. Indeed, defeating the KMT in the coming election is just Soong’s first step. His real target is Ma Ying-jeou, who will still control the national government after election day. That is when the scramble for control over the blue camp will begin in earnest. It’s certain to be a thrilling drama.