In a July 31 trade deadline deal virtually buried by the tsunami effect of the Houston Astros’ acquisition of yet another ace, Zack Greinke, the AL West’s top team also picked up two pitchers from Toronto in exchange for outfielder Derek Fisher. One of those pitchers, Aaron Sanchez, 27, was actually the linchpin of the deal for the ‘Stros. All big fat 6+ ERA of him. But, why?

Derek Fisher will now have “permission” to play full-time on a Blue Jays team who will welcome his speed and all-fields gap power. In return, the ‘Stros picked up prospect outfielder Cal Stevenson, jocular reliever Joe Biagini (about whom more can be read here), and Sanchez, who could be a position player All-Star if his batting average were what his current BAA as a pitcher is: .290.

So, Come Up to the Lab…

Something about Aaron Sanchez must have appeared attractive to the Astro brass triumvirate, identified in your scorebook as GM Jeff Luhnow, who pulled the trigger on the trade, manager AJ Hinch, who will decide how and when to use his new weapon, and pitching coach Brent Strom.

It’ll be Strommy’s job to fashion a new walking, talking mound monster out of the ragged remains of a certainly serviceable pitcher currently weighted down by the hideous specter of unsightly stats.

Strom has now become notorious, if not famous, for transforming heretofore pedestrian pitchers into veritable Cy Young-worthy candidates (see Charlie Morton, Gerrit Cole, Brad Peacock, Wade Miley, and even Justin Verlander among others, for inserting booster rockets onto a career already in orbit, if nothing else). For the record, he’ll be adopting a “hands-off” approach to the newly-acquired Greinke. No sense trying to chip away at the Hope Diamond.

Right off the bat, Sanchez throws a two-seam sinker. No, sir, I’m afraid that just won’t do. The way of the ‘Stros is to feature the rising four-seamer. Relying on that pitch as an out-getter seems to be one of the secrets behind the Astros’ mound mael-Strom of success.

Catching the rationale behind the recent lean-in toward four-seamers includes pitching above a batter’s uppercut swing path. Plus, throw in this, from last October’s FiveThirtyEight: “In every year of Statcast pitch tracking [since 2015], the average height of four-seam fastballs upon reaching the plate has increased.

“And adding spin to the four-seam fastball is what makes it a bat-missing weapon. The teams that harness those high-spin pitches seem to have an advantage in getting to October: The Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and Cleveland Indians are the top four teams in spin rate on four-seam fastballs, and the Boston Red Sox are ninth.”

An Astro-centric behind-the-scenes peek comes from that same FiveThirtyEight article: “In May [2018], Cole told me that he learned to release the ball differently after working with Verlander, changing the pitch’s spin axis by looking for ‘true rotation and hop’ and ‘staying behind the ball better.’ Cole said the Astros also worked with him on pitch usage and location.

“Astros manager AJ Hinch said in a radio interview that Cole is throwing fewer two-seamers, a lower-spin pitch that is sometimes mislabeled by Statcast, and that Cole has made ‘subtle tweaks.’ Cole did record several high-spin fastballs in Pittsburgh [his previous team] that seemed to be outliers, so baseball blogger Saul Forman suggested that the Astros might have simply identified an untapped skill. Cole finished [the 2018] season fifth in baseball in pitching wins above replacement.”

…And See What’s On the Slab

The right-handed Sanchez has the curious double-whammy of not only walking a lot of batters (nearing five per nine innings the last three years), but also hitting many bats, with a .285 lifetime BABIP, but a .341 this year. Add to that a H/9 of nine last year, and 10.46 in 2019.

Aaron, shoot for the 1.84 BB/9 Verlander has going this year or even the career mark of 2.59. Hey, gotta start somewhere. JV’s lifetime BABIP is near yours, “Sanchize,” at .283, but I’m afraid you’re gonna have to get somewhere near the .199 he’s slinging this year to even come close to being one of the cool kids. Hits per nine? Verlander’s, this year, is a tidy 5.46, with a career mark of 7.70. All the Verlander 2019 marks above, by the way, currently lead the AL.

The Athletic‘s John Lott took what amounted to a doctor’s clipboard and stethoscope, and offered up this rather sad diagnosis on the Sanchez patient on July 2, 2019:

After a 2.32 April ERA, “now nothing is working. His June ERA [was] 12.00. And …

His once-lethal sinker has lost some of its bite.

He used to throw 96-97. Now he’s throwing 92-93.

He entered the season with a walk rate of 3.8 per nine innings. Now it’s up to 5.4, highest among big-league starters.

He’s taking more time between pitches – 4.5 more seconds than he averaged during his breakthrough season of 2016.”

The top bullet point is yet another reason to ditch the stinker sinker. It’s not generally in the Astro playbook, and if what he had is floundering, Strom will wonder if it’s worth resurrecting. Also, expect to see plenty of dugout conversations between Verlander and Sanchez in the coming days when neither is slated to pitch.

The former was spotted during the game on August 2 talking at length to the newly-arrived Greinke, but I think we can just chalk that up to the requisite summit meeting between two future Hall of Famers trading opinions on which team’s induction hats they’ll wear.

Aaron It Out

Always on the Astros’ docket for pitchers is spin rate increase, and that won’t change with the 6’4″, 210-pound Barstow (CA) High School grad. Toronto’s first-round draft pick in 2010 (34th overall) has been averaging 2,245 rpm on his pitches in 2019.

Verlander’s average spin rate (ASR) this season is 2,577, while Cole’s is 2,522. Greinke comes to town with a 2,323 ASR, while his new teammate Ryan Pressly is averaging 3,301 this season.

Sanchez got his first start for Houston at Minute Maid on Saturday, August 3 against the Seattle Mariners, putting in quality work to improve his 3-14 record and 6.07 ERA entering play, hurling six scoreless, and hitless at that, innings while striking out six.

In his last seven games for Toronto, Sanchez logged an 0-5 record and a 7.41 ERA, striking out 34, while yielding 45 hits and 14 walks in 34 innings, while striking out 34.

His work on Saturday will give Brent Strom and the Astros their first look at what Sanchez has, and how, exactly, they’ll be pressing forward from here.