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This article was published 9/3/2017 (1287 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Opinion

The race to determine the next leader of the New Democratic Party of Manitoba will not be settled until this fall, but the opening volleys have already begun.

One week from now, New Democrats gather in Winnipeg for an annual convention that will not only decide the rules for the leadership vote, but likely also reveal its major combatants. Anyone who wants a shot at leading this tattered party needs to use this convention — to be held March 17 to 19 at the Indian and Métis Friendship Centre — to make a lasting, positive impression with party members in attendance.

WAYNE GLOWACKI / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS Wab Kinew is putting the finishing touches on as leadership bid.

NDP insiders believe there will be at least three candidates in the race, with a strong possibility of more depending on how the support of party opinion leaders breaks over the next week.

The first candidate out of the blocks is Michelle McHale, a nurse who earned a high profile as one of the central organizers of the Pride Day parade in Steinbach. McHale will make her candidacy official today.

McHale should be joined within a matter of days by MLA Wab Kinew who, sources confirmed, is putting the finishing touches on a leadership campaign team.

A third expected candidate has not yet stepped forward but, according to party sources, it will either be former MLA Steve Ashton or a candidate supported by Ashton.

Despite losing his Thompson seat in the last election, Ashton has been a constant presence at party meetings, lobbying forcefully to have a one-member, one-vote system in place for this fall’s membership. An NDP internal committee has put forward several recommendations for modernizing the leadership voting process, but none included a pure one-member, one-vote system. Nevertheless, the number of NDP riding associations supporting such a system has increased steadily in the lead up to the March convention, a trend insiders believe is largely because of Ashton’s intense, behind-the-scenes spadework.

Ashton has repeatedly demonstrated a capacity for selling memberships by utilizing his contacts in the South Asian and Asian communities. Party sources believe there is evidence of Ashton’s hand at work in a recent surge in membership sales in the Maples, Elmwood and Logan, ridings that delivered Ashton delegates in the 2016 leadership showdown.

Even with a one-member, one-vote system in place, Ashton would likely remain a long shot to become the next leader, particularly if both McHale and Kinew can mount serious campaigns. At this point, you can expect both to face profound challenges in their pursuit of the leadership.

MIKE DEAL / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS FILES Party sources say Steve Ashton, or a candidate he supports, will be the third name in the ring.

For Kinew, the major stumbling block will undoubtedly be the misogynistic and homophobic song lyrics and tweets he penned as an up-and-coming rapper more than a decade ago.

Political opponents pointed out many other candidates who had been guilty of the same kind of commentary on social media had been forced to step down.

Kinew did not step down and won Fort Rouge comfortably. Kinew has repeatedly claimed he is a changed man and publicly apologized for his comments and lyrics several times, long before launching his political career. Still, many New Democrats fear the Progressive Conservatives have already assembled an attack campaign based on Kinew’s controversial past in the event he wins.

Although Kinew has not yet formally entered the race, party insiders believe it is only a matter of days before he makes it official. One of the biggest selling points Kinew will offer NDP members is a team of highly respected political operatives from the camps of both Greg Selinger and Theresa Oswald, the dissident cabinet minister who tried unsuccessfully to wrestle the leadership away one year ago.

McHale, on the other hand, has her own steep hill to climb in this campaign. She has virtually no political experience and little history with the NDP. Party sources said she only became a party member last November.

BORIS MINKEVICH / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS FILES Michelle McHale, the first to announce a leadership bid, earned a high profile as a central organizer of Steinbach’s Pride Day.

To have any hope of capturing the leadership, McHale will need help from people with bona fide NDP credibility. To date, party insiders said she has recruited former Selinger political staffer Geoff Langen to head up a small team of organizers, most with deep connections to the party. She has also apparently raised money to pay for email and phone blasts that have been targeting potential convention delegates.

The battle over rules for the leadership is not the only issue at stake for the March policy convention. Members in attendance will have an opportunity to vote for a new party executive as well.

NDP president Ovide Mercredi is not expected to run again after overseeing the party through some of its most tumultuous times. Mercredi was frequently criticized for being too deferential to Selinger and, most recently, for breaking with tradition by publicly endorsing the one-member, one-vote process for electing the next leader.

It is not clear how many people will step forward to replace Mercredi, although sources say former Doer-era loyalist and staffer David Woodbury will make a bid for the presidency. Woodbury is seen as a superior organizer and a candidate who will appeal to all factions within the party membership. He is also expected to carry the endorsement of the Manitoba Federation of Labour.

Even though there does not appear to be a perfect candidate in the running, the NDP appear poised to create a leadership race that will have more than one candidate. And for a party left so wounded from its dismal showing in the last election, a vigorous battle for the leadership involving multiple candidates is about as good as it gets right now.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca