Authored by Bloomberg markets commentator and former Lehman trader, Mark Cudmore

Until the end of the year, the only good risk-reward opportunities are for those scaling gradually into long-term views.

Many asset valuations look excessively discounted relative to long-term fundamentals, but those metrics won’t be a major driver of markets again until the new year.

Speculative traders are mentally broken and still struggling to adjust to the new higher-volatility paradigm. Liquidity can only deteriorate as holidays take over and market-makers focus on year-end window- dressing.

Many of the core macro uncertainties don’t have the greater clarity that was anticipated at this stage -- the trade war, Brexit and Italy are the most obvious cases where decisions have been delayed. The uncertainty around the 2019 Fed rate path has actually increased and it doesn’t support risk appetite that the committee is due to hike next week.

The fundamentals show that the consumer is strong, corporate profits are at record highs in many countries, global growth is still solid if slowing, U.S. yields and the dollar topped out four weeks ago, easing global financial conditions, China is again providing stimulus for its economy, oil prices are about 30% cheaper than they were two months ago and so energy costs are collapsing.

All those factors may make long-term macro investors excited but they’re currently dominated by the powerful forces of fear and confusion.

There are many risk assets, particularly in emerging markets, that are likely to trade at a significantly stronger level six months from now. The real problem is having any conviction around the next 5% and the next two weeks -- and that’s what matters for most market participants.

That’s why the macro fundamentals are only relevant to those looking to incrementally build into investment positions. Those investors have the luxury of seeing short-term volatility as an excellent opportunity to improve the average cost of entry while simultaneously shaking out the weak bulls and enhancing the technical picture. They are the lucky minority.