In 30 years Poland will become a regional powerbroker, with the prospect of playing an important role on the international arena, renowned American geopolitical futurist and political analyst George Friedman has argued.

Friedman spoke at the European Forum for New Ideas in the Baltic city of Sopot last week.

The analyst predicted that the European Union may face major obstacles pushing for further integration. “Europe does not have a good mechanism for integrating European nations, so I think we will see fragmentation,” Friedman said at the event.

“I think the European Union will survive, but in its current form it will have to reform and give more room for nations like Poland to make their own ways.”

Friedman forecasts that Germany and Russia will decline in the decades to come. He said that the German economy is over 50 percent dependent on exports, proportions that would be impossible to maintain in the future. Russia, on the other hand, has failed to create a modern economy, Friedman said.

According to the analyst, in the next three decades Germany will lose its status as an economic powerhouse, while Russia will be “weak”. This will be a time for Poland, which – with its well-educated society – will become a regional powerbroker.

George Friedman is the head of Geopolitical Futures, an online publication that predicts world events in the decades to come. His books include "The Next 100 Years" and "Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe." (aba/pk)