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To no one’s surprise, Ottawa’s newest guessing game continues into 2016. Will federal NDP leader Thomas Mulcair remain party leader after the party’s disastrous showing last fall? Can he pass the party’s mandated leadership review in April? And if so, should Mulcair contest the 2019 election as NDP leader?

Such futile questions misdiagnose the NDP’s defining challenge as one of leadership.

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Unfortunately, for New Democrats, a looming party squabble over whether Mulcair remains leader or exits stage right, masks a far greater threat to Canada’s NDP – that is, its very relevance in a majority Parliament dominated by a decidedly progressive Liberal government.

But the party landed its second-best electoral showing in Canadian history on Oct. 19, NDP partisans will reason. Moreover, they won seats in every region of the country outside Atlantic Canada.

This does not change the fact that last fall, the NDP was abruptly displaced by Justin Trudeau’s progressive Liberals on the centre-left of the political spectrum.