The sudden rise of swine flu may trigger a pandemic that could wipe out 120million people, an expert has warned. More than 80 people are now thought to have died as the first scare hit Britain. The death toll of the H1N1 virus could reach 50million â as high as the Spanish Flu of 1918, according to John McCauley, of the National Institute For Medical Research.

He claimed the virus â a contagious respiratory disease of pigs caused by type A influenza â is much more similar to the Spanish Flu than the feared H5N1 bird flu.

On guard: Masked police officers in Mexico, where more than 80 people are believed to have been killed by H1N1 swine flu



‘It could be a similar death rate to back in 1918,’ he said.


‘If you were going to have a pandemic this is how it would start. It emerges suddenly and infects a lot of people. It doesn’t look good but it’s an emerging situation.’

Nigel Dimmock, Emeritus professor of Warwick university, warned that if the virus spreads around the world it could have a more lethal impact than in 1918 â and wipe out 120million people.

‘I am worried but you don’t want to panic too much â it may go away,’ he added.

‘We have to hope for the best and plan for the worst.’

More than 80 people are now thought to have died as the first scare hit Britain.

All the deaths have been in Mexico but the infection is suspected of spreading to the US, Europe and even as far afield as New Zealand.

Two people were admitted to a Scottish hospital as a precaution after they reported feeling unwell following a trip to Mexico.

Around the globe, countries were planning quarantine measures, to tighten rules on pork imports and to screen air passengers for fever.

The World Health Organisation declared the outbreak, which some experts claimed might develop into a pandemic that could kill 120million people, a ‘public health event of inter­national concern’.

In Mexico, up to 1,300 people were suspected of having the virus although two-thirds were given the all-clear. There have been 20 confirmed deaths but the toll could be as high as 81.

Schools, museums, libraries and theatres have been closed to try to contain the outbreak. In the US, there have been 20 cases in New York, Ohio, Kansas, Texas and California.

Officials, fearful of the infection spreading, have declared a public emergency so they can prepare their response to the threat.

In New Zealand, ten children who returned from a school trip to Mexico were ‘highly likely’ to have the infection. Israel has one suspected case, France four, Spain three and Canada six. Experts have said the virus appeared to have a death rate of two per cent.

In Britain, two patients were having tests in Monklands Hospital, Airdrie, to determine whether they had the infection. Officials said their cond­ition was ‘not causing concern’.

Health secretary Alan Johnson said Britain had large stockpiles of flu treatment and, with France, was the country best prepared for an outbreak. ‘The good news from Mexico is that, given anti-virals like Tamiflu early enough, the people who get this recover,’ he added.