Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker"s legacy will, in many respects, be measured by one number: 250,000.



That"s the number of private sector jobs Walker promised will be created during his four-year term, which began in January 2011.



It was the central promise of his 2010 campaign, and Walker has mentioned it routinely since taking office. He says everything his administration does is based upon improving the state"s economic climate, and says he is pushing the "most aggressive pro-jobs agenda in the country.”



At a recent appearance before the Waupaca Chamber of Commerce, Walker called the 250,000 figure "a minimum, not a maximum.”



We will be tracking that pledge along with 60-some other campaign promises on our Walk-O-Meter feature. It is a tool that measures progress with six ratings, including In the Works, Stalled and Not Yet Rated. Once action is completed, in item is rated Promise Kept, Promise Broken or Compromise.



In this case, expect to see the jobs promise rated as In the Works for awhile.



Nevertheless, we will update the jobs numbers on a monthly basis, as a barometer for how Walker is faring on the way toward his goal. To meet it, he needs a monthly average of just over 5,200 net new jobs a month.

(Click here for a graphic we will be using to measure month-to-month changes)



To be sure, it is difficult to say exactly what direct impact a governor -- or a president or an individual lawmaker, for that matter -- has on private-sector hiring.



For instance, it"s hard to imagine that Walker"s inauguration alone led businesses to hire 10,100 people in January. Indeed, many of the job-related provisions passed in the special session of the Legislature that month took effect later.



But when the final four-year tally is done, those January hires will count as much as the other 47 months of Walker"s term.



There is also the question of how much hiring is coming from routine economic growth.



Walker"s jobs promise came as the country was emerging from the worst recession since the Great Depression. The recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.



In November, former state labor economist Terry Ludeman told the Journal Sentinel that a standard economic recovery should naturally restore the lost jobs and take the state most of the way to the 250,000-job target.



That"s little solace to the thousands of state residents who lost their jobs in the downturn and have yet to find work. Manufacturing was especially hard hit, but that sector has now begun to lead the recovery.



All of that said, what is the best way to measure progress?



Walker"s office plans to use a quarterly report issued by the state Department of Workforce Development as the official yardstick. However, there is a six-month lag between the date the report is issued and the time frame it covers.



So, the report measuring the first quarter of activity in 2011 -- the first under Walker as governor -- will be issued in late September. Likewise, that approach means voters in November 2014 will face a lag in the numbers, which could have an effect on whether the promise is kept.



The department also issues a preliminary measure of jobs each month, which covers the total employment for the previous month. Even those are adjusted a bit.



For instance, the preliminary March report said there were 2,341,300 private sector jobs. The final figure for March was 2,339,100 -- a drop of 2,200.



Those preliminary figures are widely reported in the media -- and have been routinely cited (and touted) by Walker"s administration.



For instance, there was this statement tied to the May report, from Scott Baumbach, secretary of the Department of Workforce Development: "Wisconsin has added 26,400 private sector jobs, including 13,100 manufacturing jobs, since Gov. Walker declared Wisconsin is open for business.”



Here at PolitiFact Wisconsin, we"ll also use the monthly figures, starting with December 2010 as the baseline. We"ll update our chart each month. We"ll also keep an eye on whether the more precise quarterly numbers suggest something different is happening and may adjust accordingly.



In each case, the various reports take into account hirings and job cuts and offer a net result, which is the key. We would not simply tally "new jobs” and ignore job cuts. There is no mechanism to do so, and Walker has pointed to the net number.



We will also keep an eye on other measures of state employment.



The nonpartisan Center on Wisconsin Strategy issues a "Wisconsin Job Watch” each month. That"s a broader measure because it includes government jobs -- Walker"s promise relates only to private-sector jobs.



The group points out that the governor has little to do with job creation, or loss.



"Basically, as the national economy goes up and down, so does Wisconsin"s,” the group said in a recent report.



It added: "Though it sounds large, 250,000 jobs is not a particularly impressive number. In fact, taking population growth into account, Wisconsin needs more than that -- more than 270,000 jobs -- to get employment back to its pre-recession level.”



On a seasonally adjusted basis, the state had a total of 2,470,800 private sector jobs in December 2007, when the recession began, according to the state Department of Workforce Development. That compares with 2,343,600 as of May, a difference of about 127,200.



Meanwhile, the number of private sector jobs at the end of December 2010 was 2,317,200.



That"s the final number before Walker entered office. And that"s the baseline for our monthly update. The May 2011 numbers, released June 16, 2011, showed a net increase of 26,400 private-sector jobs.



So, the promise is rated In the Works.



And Walker has 223,600 jobs to go.