Illinois Democrat Marie Newman

NARAL, a national pro-choice group that is backing businesswoman Marie Newman in the primary against conservative Illinois Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski, is out with a PPP poll that shows a close race for the first time ever. The survey has Lipinski up just 43-41; that's a far better result for Newman than the only other poll we've seen, which was an October internal poll from Newman's campaign that had her trailing by 49-18. Lipinski has so far not released any contradictory polling of his own.

The March 20 primary is swiftly approaching for the safely blue southwestern Chicago-area 3rd District, but this PPP poll is just the latest sign that Newman may have a chance to pull off an upset against one of the worst Democrats in Congress. She has scored a string of endorsements in recent weeks from national progressive groups like EMILY's List, influential Illinois labor organizations like the Federation of Teachers, and even a handful of congressional Democrats. Those allies like NARAL have also been supporting Newman with hundreds of thousands spent on ads.

Lipinski will likely still be a formidable incumbent, and he had a large campaign funding advantage over Newman at the end of 2017 thanks to his many years of incumbency. However, his anti-choice, anti-LGBTQ, anti-immigrant views may finally prove to be too great of a liability with mainstream Democratic primary voters in an era where progressives are fired up to fight against the Trump administration's reactionary policies.

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