Average-to-low turnout expected in Tuesday's Alabama primaries

Brian Lyman | Montgomery Advertiser

Show Caption Hide Caption How the lieutenant governor's office lost (most) of its powers The lieutenant governor used to be one of the most powerful people in Alabama state government. What happened?

The political ads fly fast and furious. Whether they drive voters out next week isn't certain.

Estimates by the Alabama Secretary of State’s Office and absentee ballot applications received by circuit clerks through Wednesday suggest next Tuesday’s elections will, at best, see average turnout. Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill said Thursday morning he expects turnout to range from 25 to 30 percent, roughly what might be expected for state primary elections.

“It would probably be a little higher than average, but it’s not record-breaking,” he said.

The figure would represent a decline in public interest over last December’s hotly contested U.S. Senate race, when 40 percent of state voters showed up at the polls. It would also be slightly lower than the 32 percent of voters who cast ballots in the 2010 primaries, though significantly higher than the 21 percent who voted in 2014, when then-Gov. Robert Bentley cruised to re-election.

Voters on Tuesday will select major party nominees for the Alabama Legislature and almost every statewide office, including governor and attorney general.

Circuit clerks Thursday morning generally said absentee ballot returns were average for a primary, or lower than they expected. Gina Ishman, deputy circuit clerk for Montgomery County, said the office received 1,066 absentee applications through Wednesday, split about 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans.

“That’s about average,” she said. “I’m not surprised with these numbers.”

Other clerks said they expected more applications. The Madison County Circuit Clerk received 1,200 absentee ballot applications through Wednesday. Applications in that county were running about three-to-one in favor of the Republicans.

“I feel like it’s a little low,” said Debra Kizer, Madison County Circuit Clerk, on Thursday morning. “We were expecting a little more interest.”

Elmore County received about 275 absentee ballots through Wednesday, which Janet Davidson, the absentee elections manager for the county, said was low.

“We’ve talked about it,” she said. “We don’t really have a reason. We thought it would be much bigger.”

Merrill said a 25 to 30 percent turnout would equate to 845,000 to 1.1 million ballots cast. There are over 3 million registered voters in the state.

Thursday is the deadline to file an absentee ballot application.