A new poll shows Republican Dennis Richardson, who lost his bid to unseat Gov. John Kitzhaber in 2014, locked in a virtual dead heat with Democrat Brad Avakian in their race for secretary of state.

With only 18 days before the Nov. 8 deadline for ballots, Richardson is leading Avakian 34 percent to 33 percent, according to a poll commissioned by The Oregonian/OregonLive and KGW-TV. That's within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.97 percentage points.

But almost as many respondents -- 26 percent -- said they have yet to decide how they'll vote. Pollster Mike Riley, whose Riley Research Associates conducted the survey, said those undecided voters will likely decide the race.

And Avakian, the state's labor commissioner, may be facing the bigger hurdle, Riley said. Fully 27 percent of Democrats said they are undecided, while only 16 percent of Republicans gave that response.

"It's very possible that a significant number of undecided Democrats are likely to end up favoring Avakian on election day," Riley said. "But, at this point, it's pretty clear that people in his own party are just having a hard time pulling the trigger for him."

Jim Moore, a political science professor at Pacific University, agreed.

"This has turned into our closest statewide race, which is not a surprise," he said. "What is a surprise is how weak both candidates are in giving voters a reason to vote for them."

Pollsters phoned 608 registered voters between Oct. 4 and Oct. 14. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Because many new voters have registered this year, pollsters allowed new and less likely voters to participate, provided they indicated they were either "certain" or "extremely likely" to turn in ballots.

Amy Price, 46, of Glendale, confessed she's an undecided Democrat.

"I just got the voters' pamphlet and need to do a lot of online studying this weekend," she said. "I still have a lot of questions about both candidates."

Riley said undecided nonaffiliated voters might also play a role in the outcome. Four in 10 of those voters haven't made up their minds yet, according to the poll. For those registered with minor parties, the figure is 27 percent.

"If I'm Richardson, I'd be very concerned about those undecided voters," Riley said.

They could make a big difference."

Richardson, a longtime legislator, is trying to become the first Republican in 14 years to win a statewide election in Oregon. Avakian is equally as intent on helping maintain his party's dominance in statewide contests.

Many of the findings mirror polls in other statewide races this year. Richardson, for instance, leads among likely male voters, while Avakian is drawing considerably more support from women.

That same gender split is also playing out in Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's race against Democrat Hillary Clinton, and in Republican Bud Pierce's run against Gov. Kate Brown.

Thomas Hughes, another poll participant, is a registered with the Independent Party of Oregon independent in Multnomah County. However, Avakian has his vote.

"He seems like a real guy," said Hughes, 70. Mentioning reports of Avakian's past financial woes, involving unpaid taxes, Hughes added, "He's been in trouble, but who hasn't? People can relate to that."

Avakian's strategy should lie in energizing all those undecided Democratic voters, Riley said.

"If I were him, I'd be begging and pleading to get fellow Democrats to stick by their guns and stand by me," he added.

The poll also showed support for the candidates split along other lines.

Richardson, for instance, is leading among 45- to 54-year-olds (42 percent to 36 percent), with Avakian leading among 18- to 34-year-olds (32 percent to 21 percent).

Gender presents a similar schism. Richardson leads among men (40 percent to 29 percent), while Avakian is ahead with women (36 percent to 28 percent).

The poll also illuminated stark splits along geographic lines. Forty-four percent of voters in the Portland metro area - Clackamas, Washington, Columbia and Multnomah counties - support Avakian. That compares to 23 percent support for Richardson.

Meanwhile, in the poll's 13-county eastern Oregon bloc, Richardson outpolled Avakian 54 percent to 14 percent.

Holly Mack, a Republican in Umatilla County, has no doubt that Richardson will get her vote.

"I'm just a straight-line Republican all the way," said Mack, 45. "I've seen a lot of Richardson campaign fliers and he seems like a good fit for the job."

A remaining bright spot for Avakian could be the state's new automatic registration system, which added nearly 250,000 new voters, according to state records. One-third of those so-called "motor voters," registered after transactions with the Department of Motor Vehicles, support the Democratic candidate, Riley said, with only 13 percent backing Richardson.

"Richardson's path to victory lies in getting more participation from older voters," Riley said. "With Avakian, it's just the opposite. If he gets a big participation among younger voters, he likely wins."

-- Dana Tims

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