Lungaboy is quite right. Jehovah's Witnesses as a worldwide group continue to grow, but the percentage of growth over the past few years falls between 1 and 2%. He is also correct that most of that growth has taken place in the less affluent Pacific Islands and in Africa.

In North America and Europe growth has been very flat, falling around the normal birth rate of 1 to 1.5%. The Watchtower usually also rounds up to the next whole number, which tends to inflate the percentages a bit (1.6% becoming 2%). What is interesting is the lack of real growth when you compare baptisms (example: 250,000) versus net growth for the year (Example: 200,000) That shows that in some countries, there is actually a net loss of members. In Europe, for example, some countries showed a gain over 2010, but a net loss from what they were in 2009. I am not a statistician, but anyone looking at the numbers can see the trends are not good overall.

Recently it was reported that over 85% of all Jehovah's Witness children leave the religion between the ages of 18 and 25. Of those, only about 18% return. The average age of Jehovah's Witnesses has moved up from the low to mid-40s, to around 50-52.

What is most significant is the number of JWs who admit that they would leave tomorrow except for the fear of losing their family members and friends through the Watchtower's shunning policy. You can't just walk away from the religion like you can if you were a Baptist or an Episcopalian. No, the Watchtower makes sure that if you leave, you also leave your friends and family behind. A recent survey indicated that as many as 40% of all Jehovah's Witnesses in North America would leave immediately if the shunning rules were relaxed even to the point that only family would not shun. Another 10% might leave if shunning was discontinued completely.

There are other signs that Jehovah's Witnesses are beginning to decline. Kingdom Halls that serviced over 100 regular members are now seeing 40-60 at meetings. Kingdom Halls are being merged because of lack of members or enough attendance. The Watchtower has admitted that finding qualified men to take positions as elders or ministerial servants is becoming more difficult. Some congregations have to loan elders to nearby congregations to help out. Fewer brothers are taking speaking assignments.

Another negative clue that not all is well is that the number of disfellowshipping cases has jumped in recent years, and congregations get several "disassociation" letters each year. Not all members who face judicial committees are disfellowshipped, but there are far more DFs in recent years than there were during the years of greatest growth. Between 1945 and 1980, few congregations had more than one or two DFs a year. Some had none at all over several years. One brother commented that it seemed that for every new person baptized, that two persons were being disfellowshipped. He commented, "It's almost like we are eating our own young. Maybe we should find a way to show more mercy and forgiveness. It seems like you can be disfellowshipped for almost anything anymore."

It has become very clear to observers both in and out of the Watchtower Society that Jehovah's Witnesses are definitely facing a crisis in their history. That is why some have described it as "a sifting." As long as the Watchtower refuses to admit their past mistakes and continues to become more hard line in the way they manage dissent and honest debate, they will see their numbers erode, especially in wealthier and more educated countries.