Europe’s politicians believe a trade deal with the UK could take up to a decade or more and could still fail in the final stages, Downing Street has been warned by the UK’s ambassador to the EU.

Sir Ivan Rogers, who conducted David Cameron’s renegotiation with the EU before the referendum, is reported to have told Theresa May that European politicians expect that a deal will not be finalised until the early to mid-2020s, according to the BBC. That deal could still be rejected by any of the 27 national parliaments during the ratification process.

It is understood Rogers was reporting back conversations he had had with European politicians, rather than giving his own advice to the British government.

“It is wrong to suggest this is advice from our ambassador to the EU,” a No 10 spokesman said. “Like all ambassadors, part of his role is to report the views of others.”

The former Tory minister Dominic Raab, a leave campaigner, said it was “reasonable to set out a worst-case scenario of five to 10 years to iron out all the detail of a trade deal”.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Thursday: “The crucial question is whether we maintain barrier-free trade in the meantime, in which case there’s no real problem. I have to say it’s very unlikely in the interim that the EU would want to erect trade barriers.”

Speaking later in the House of Commons, Mark Garnier, a trade minister, said Rogers had been reporting the views of “interlocutors”. He admitted it was incredibly difficult to know how long it would take to complete a trade deal but pointed out that one between the US and Jordan had taken just four months.

The assessment of the long road ahead by one of Britain’s top diplomats will come as no surprise to those in Brussels. In the run-up to the referendum, Donald Tusk, president of the European council, warned that Britain could face seven years of uncertainty in negotiating its new status, with no guarantee of success.

British government officials have told ministers it could take a decade to extricate the UK from EU law, with the domestic legislative agenda likely to be dominated by unwinding EU membership for years to come.

But the reports come after the Brexit secretary, David Davis, told a select committee hearing that “everything is negotiable” within a year and a half of the formal article 50 notification in March. The deal would then take about six months to be agreed by European leaders, the European parliament and the British parliament.

While Davis is optimistic, May declined to respond to questions on the Brexit timetable as she arrived in Brussels for an EU summit at which leaders of the other 27 member states will draw up plans to be “battle ready” for Brexit at a dinner from which the prime minister is excluded.

However, she welcomed the fact that other EU leaders were discussing Brexit without her, saying: “It is right that other leaders prepare for those negotiations as we have been preparing.”



Philip Hammond, the chancellor, said earlier this week that all “thoughtful politicians” were clearly in favour of striking a transitional deal with the EU to smooth the Brexit process but Downing Street has so far refused to confirm it will seek this.

Speaking at the hearing, Davis said the UK was not opposed to transitional arrangements if they amounted to a Brexit “implementation phase” but only if it was really necessary and after the deal had been nailed down.

“Whatever the transitional arrangement is, we need to know where we’re going before we decide on the transition,” he said. “It seems to me that it will be perfectly possible to know what the endgame will be in two years.”

Davis made clear that the UK would seek a trade deal at the same time as negotiations over exiting under article 50, but that preventing non-tariff barriers to services was probably more important than stopping the imposition of tariffs on goods.

The Tory MP Neil Carmichael, a supporter of Open Britain, said: “The government should bring forward their substantive plans in a white paper, which David Davis himself suggested before he joined the cabinet.



“There is a mandate to leave the EU but there is no mandate for a hard, destructive Brexit. The terms on which we leave should be subject to rigorous debate and scrutiny – in parliament and the country.”

EU leaders will reaffirm their now familiar red lines on Brexit over dinner in Brussels: no negotiations until notification of article 50, and no compromise on the idea that single market membership means accepting free movement of people.

Since these principles were drawn up in the immediate aftermath of the referendum in late June, the EU has not budged.

“The heads of state or government of 27 member states reconfirmed their statement of 29 June 2016,” states a draft communique to be released after dinner on Thursday. “They reiterated that they stand ready to start negotiations with the UK as soon as the UK has notified under article 50.”

Before the dinner May and the other EU27 leaders will discuss the refugee crisis, ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine and plans to boost EU defence capabilities. After the formal talks, the 27 will discuss Brexit without May.

Over a three-course dinner, they are expected to rubber-stamp a series of procedural points: the former French foreign minister, Michel Barnier, will be formally appointed as lead Brexit negotiator – an outcome never really in doubt, as he has access to scores of technical staff at the European commission.

But leaders will stress they are in charge of talks with the British: the European council “will remain permanently seized” on Brexit, the draft states, and will set up a working group of technical experts to follow the negotiations.

The European parliament’s status as the junior player is confirmed: MEPs will be invited to join EU27 diplomats merely “for an exchange of views” at the start of crucial Brexit preparatory meetings. The parliament’s smaller role means that any promises by MEPs on special status for British citizens should be taken with a pinch of salt.

MEPs reacted furiously after learning they would not have a central role in the EU Brexit process. Martin Schulz, the president of the European parliament, said he was disappointed with proposals to give MEPs a secondary role. He warned that “if we are not adequately involved, we may not be able to give our assent” - meaning “the UK would face the hardest Brexit possible”.

Schulz was speaking at his last EU summit as MEP leader, as he prepares to enter German domestic politics. The EU treaties state that the European parliament must give its consent to Britain’s EU exit deal, but are silent on any negotiating role for MEPs.

Sorting out the EU’s institutional machinery is intended to send a message that Europe is ready to start talks, amid continuing uncertainty about the kind of Brexit London wants. The EU needs to be “battle ready”, said one senior diplomat, so no time is lost once May triggers article 50.

