The Bears will clinch their first NFC North title in eight years with a win over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, which would be a remarkable achievement for a team that hasn’t even contended for its own division over the last few seasons.

But winning on Sunday would not only officially guarantee the Bears a spot in the playoffs. It would effectively eliminate Aaron Rodgers and the Packers from playoff contention — and, likely, a wild card round date with the Bears at Soldier Field next month.

The Bears this week downplayed the importance of delivering a knockout blow to the Packers’ wobbly playoff hopes. The mantra around Halas Hall is all about controlling what you can control when it comes to winning the division or not paying attention to the recent history of this rivalry, in which Green Bay has won 15 of the last 18 meetings.

“Control what you can control and whatever else happens with every other team in the league, we can’t control that,” coach Matt Nagy said. “But we can control whether we win or lose and that’s all we want our guys to focus on.”

But that’s just the thing: The Bears actually have some control over who they’ll play in the first round of the playoffs. And would this team really want to play a Packers team that they’ve beat three times in the last eight years and, if it were to reach the postseason, would be on a four-game winning streak after firing its coach?

Or, maybe more succinctly: Would you really want to face Rodgers in the playoffs?

“We know that’s at stake, but as far as in their team and in this locker room, again it’s another opponent that we gotta beat,” wide receiver Allen Robinson said. “So we’re going to treat it like any other Sunday, try to go out there and get the W.”

Even if the 5-7-1 Packers were to beat the Bears, then win their final two games against the New York Jets and Detroit Lions, they’d need a few things to break their way to reach the playoffs. Football Outsiders gives Green Bay a 6.6 percent chance of reaching the postseason; for comparison, the same formula gives the Bears’ a 10 percent chance of earning a first-round bye.

The best the Packers can do is 8-7-1, and the Minnesota Vikings have the head-to-head tiebreaker over them. So for Green Bay to play into January, it would need to win out and have the following teams have these records or worse:

Minnesota (6-6-1, 54 percent chance of making playoffs): 1-2

Carolina (6-7, 14 percent): 2-1

Philadelphia (6-7, 11 percent): 2-1

Washington (6-7, 8.1 percent): 2-1

But looking at that list — is that really all that farfetched a scenario to play out? Carolina is on a five-game losing streak and still has to play the New Orleans Saints twice. The Eagles will be without Carson Wentz against the Los Angeles Rams this weekend, and may not have him the rest of the season. Washington is an unmitigated disaster.

So that leaves the Vikings, who have the Miami Dolphins (at home), the Lions (in Detroit) and the Bears (at home) to end the season. If Minnesota doesn’t get a new-OC bump (if that’s a thing) and loses to the AFC wild card-contending Miami Dolphins on Sunday, the door will crack further open for the Packers.

Aaron Rodgers on #Packers playoff chances: "I’m aware of what the scores are. There’s been a number of games that needed to go our way, and they have all gone our way. So hopefully that continues."



Told crazy things happened before, Rodgers: "Maybe not as crazy as this would be" — Ryan Wood (@ByRyanWood) December 12, 2018

This all goes back to the Bears controlling what they can control. And while it may not be at the front of their collective minds this weekend, they can control this: Not playing the Packers in playoffs come January. The last Bears playoff team had a chance to ensure at the end of the 2010 season, but lost, 10-3, to the Packers…then lost again to Green Bay three weeks later in the NFC Championship.

“Really, we’re just trying to get our place, find our fit, find our mold,” linebacker Danny Trevathan said. “That’s just the bonus on top of it, a little icing on it. But we have to take care of our business. We’re not looking to just mess up something, we’re looking to get to where we want to do. We want to keep building and stacking on top of our stuff.”

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