The novelty of contemporary developments is only too often deflated by history.

In May 1963, the mighty government of Jawaharlal Nehru was rocked by three devastating by-election defeats. In Amroha, Farrukhabad and Rajkot, Congress candidates were resoundingly defeated by the combined opposition candidates Acharya J B Kripalani, Ram Manohar Lohia and Minoo Masani respectively. In Jaunpur, however, the Jana Sangh stalwart Pandit Deendayal Upadhyaya lost to the Congress.

The impact of these byelections was profound. Analysing the verdict in The Economic Weekly, the political scientist Rajni Kothari wrote: “The results of the three elections… created a sensation in the country. While the extent of the defeat surprised everyone, it nearly stupefied the Congress, and raised great jubilation in the ranks of the Opposition. The latter lost no time in declaring the results as a clear “verdict” of the people against the Government, and, in fact, called for a general election… The Congress… declared that the election results had nothing to do with the policies pursued by the Government, adding that it had achieved significant victories in other bye-elections.”

By-election upsets invariably create a flutter and 55 years later the excitement of the twilight years of Nehru has been replicated. Having been at the receiving end of the BJP’s formidable election machinery, the hitherto-demoralised opposition is now convinced that it has finally discovered a winning formula: arithmetical aggregation.

Confronted with direct contests, the BJP has lost six Lok Sabha seats in three months, three of them in Uttar Pradesh where it won 73 of the 80 seats in 2014. With less than 12 months left for the general election, the political mood has undergone an abrupt change. As yesterday’s bitter rivals bury the hatchet, the inevitability of a second term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi has begun to be questioned.

It will require a jyotishi with a reputation for infallibility to determine whether the grand opposition bonhomie that was in evidence at H D Kumaraswamy’s oath-taking ceremony in Bengaluru will endure till the polls. My own impression is that sheer necessity will propel the main non-BJP players to arrive at some sort of seat-sharing understanding, at least at the state level. This does not negate the possibility of “friendly contests”, as happened in the battle against Rajiv Gandhi in 1989.

Take the case of the Bahujan Samaj Party. In both the 2014 general election and the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly election, the party was decimated and reduced to its core vote. Mayawati desperately needs to recover political space and this is possible in the short term by piggy-backing on other parties in search of incremental votes.

The real problem any opposition combination will face is in determining the shape of an alternative to Modi. It is one thing to work for the defeat of the BJP in each constituency but a general election also involves electing a government blessed with direction and stability. This involves determining two issues: outlining a political programme that goes beyond a common commitment to defeat Modi and identifying who will lead the coalition government.

The argument that these can be settled after Modi has been defeated leaves the opposition parties vulnerable to the charge of willful evasion. Public memory may be short but the horror of what transpired between 1989 and 1991 and between 1996 and 1998 isn’t all that distant.

At the same time, the BJP may well be committing a blunder if it chooses to make the fear of a khichdi sarkar its dominant election narrative. Past experience, particularly Rajiv Gandhi’s unsuccessful 1989 campaign, suggests that this may be counter-productive and convey an impression that the incumbent has no record to boast of.

After five years in power, India expects Modi to present his report card and indicate a roadmap for the future. Predictably, every campaign will have emotive sub-texts: hounding the corrupt, the virtues of national resurgence — the dog whistle for Hindu consolidation — and the pitfalls of endemic political stability.

However, unless the volley of negativism by the opposition is met with a positive message, the appeal of the Prime Minister as a no-nonsense leader, a doer and someone who stands many notches above the rest, may get tarnished. In 2014, Modi appealed to the electorate because he combined charisma with hope. He has to keep alive that hope.

In 2019, the opposition will seek to fight 543 different battles using local grievances as their weapon. Modi will have to counter it with a single message assuring India’s future.