In a hard to predict general election, the role of a Scottish electorate invigorated by the referendum campaign could prove pivotal

Swinging for victory: how the political landscape in Scotland is changing

The vote in Scotland could prove crucial in May’s general election. Many seats are predicted to fall to the Scottish National Party, with significant implications for Labour’s hopes for an overall majority, or for the Liberal Democrat’s hopes of maintaining a significant presence in Westminster.



We asked Scottish swing voters to get in touch. We received nearly a thousand responses. The picture that emerged was of an electorate invigorated by the referendum campaign, with age-old loyalties - particularly those to Labour - melting away.



The energies of the Yes campaign have been maintained, resulting in a large surge in membership for the SNP and - albeit from a lower base - Scottish Greens. The focus of Labour’s campaigning in Scotland has been to remind voters that the party with the most seats is most likely to form the next government: in short, that a vote for the SNP could hand victory to the Tories.

But the conclusion from our survey is that this tactic could backfire. Many respondents were frustrated with Labour, in particular, for sharing the ‘Better Together’ platform with the Conservatives, still toxic north of the border. The SNP has also been successful in painting the three main Westminster parties are near-identical on issues such as austerity.

Below is a summary of the key themes to emerge from the likely swing voters who took part in our survey.



Facebook Twitter Pinterest Ed Miliband with Jim Murphy last month. The Scottish Labour leader has come under criticism for his past voting record. Photograph: Mark Runnacles/Getty Images

Labour to SNP

By far the largest group of our respondents were those planning to switch to the SNP after plumping for Labour in 2010. This trend tallies with Lord Ashcroft’s polling research of 16 Scottish constituencies, which suggests 35 out of 41 Labour seats could fall to the SNP.

“Seeing Alastair Darling getting a standing ovation at a Tory conference turned my stomach” Anne Toms, a voter in Jim Murphy's constituency

Within the hundreds of reader responses - 48% of our survey’s total - key phrases for voter disillusionment with Labour came up again and again: the party were accused of “standing shoulder to shoulder with the Tories” during the independence campaign, criticised for “electing the Blairite Jim Murphy” as leader, and were dismissed as “red Tories,” “Tory lite”, and being part of the “pro-austerity” consensus.

Anne Toms, a voter living in Jim Murphy’s consituency of East Renfrewshire, was one of many to single out Labour’s conduct during the Better Together campaign as a key reason for the switch. “They could have said No but remained separate from Tories,” she said. “Seeing Alistair Darling getting a standing ovation at a Tory conference turned my stomach”

Ewen Carr is a voter living in the constituency of Edinburgh South, where Labour’sIan Murray holds a precarious 316 majority.

“I’m an ex-member of the Labour Party, who voted for Alistair Darling in 2010, and spent much of the past year apologising for it.”

“My problems with Labour stem from the support they give the Government, whether on austerity, GCHQ, or Trident renewal. The difference between Labour’s policies and the Conservatives is minimal, and this became glaringly obvious during the Indyref.”

“I never abandoned Labour, they abandoned me,” said John Mitchell, an NHS worker in Largs, whose stance was echoed by many. “I come from Greenock, my father was a shipbuilder, my mother a hospital cleaner. I voted Labour in every general election, but SNP at Holyrood the last two times.”



Lib Dem to SNP

"I am English, but I have lost trust in Westminster politics" John McLay, Falkirk

How well will the Lib Dem vote stand up after five years in coalition with the Conservatives? The polls do not look encouraging for the party, particularly in Scotland.



John McLay, in Falkirk, summed up the Lib Dems’ problem. “Growing up in Scotland under Thatcher left a visceral hatred of the Tories, and to find that I had voted for them by proxy left me sick to the core.”

Neil Petrie, in Edinburgh, described his decision to swing from the Lib Dems to the SNP as “partly tactical,” noting the strong possibility that no party will gain enough seats for a majority in May.

“I believe the SNP in Westminster will hold a Labour government in check better than the Lib Dems have managed with the Tories.

“The Lib Dems need to take responsibility for the continued existence of the current government and so will not receive my vote this time ‘round.”

Labour / Lib Dems to Green

“I was inspired as a student to vote for the Liberal Democrats, and unfortunately that didn’t work out so well." Hannah Dalgleish, Hawick

The Green party are currently polling at around 7%. An analysis by YouGov’s Peter Kellner suggests 50% of those planning to vote Green in 2-15 were Lib Dem voters in 2010. Another 22% are former Labour voters. While the Greens are unlikely to add to their single parliamentary seat, it must be concerning to Labour in particular that left-leaning voters unconvinced by the SNP are turning Green instead.



“I was inspired as a student to vote for the Liberal Democrats, and unfortunately that didn’t work out so well,” said Hannah Dalgleish, from Hawick, with commendable understatement. “The Greens are the only realistic party to vote for [in 2015].

“The Scottish Greens are both green and socialist and I believe reflect a significant proportion of the Scottish population,” said Gale Ward, in Newtonmore, who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010.



“It is important that they have a parliamentary voice to help pull parties such as SNP further towards social and environmental sustainability”

“I might return to Labour in future years if it returns to its roots,” said Les Brown, from Glasgow.



“But the Greens represent my views on a wide range of issues - including but not only Scottish independence - far better than Labour.”

