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In preparation for Eldritch Moon, the Pro Tour, and the end of Battle of Tix, I’ve been trying to close out many of my positions, especially the older ones that ‘didn’t work out.’ This is due to 1) the time sensitive nature of Battle of Tix – I don’t want to be caught at the end with a card in a temporary low and forced to sell then. And, 2) pruning my portfolio makes it easier to keep track of every card. Managing the size of my portfolio helps to eliminate the (albeit small) time I take to check the prices of these stagnant cards, allowing me to devote more brainpower to figuring out new specs and monitoring the ‘better’ specs I’ve made.

On the buying side, I’ve started going wide, which makes me a bit uncomfortable. I prefer to find a spec I’m confident will work and go somewhat deep. Going wide involves casting a net knowing some of the specs won’t work out. This is because it’s basically betting (or hedging) – things like buying a mythic Eldrazi, Vampire, and Human, with the idea that at least one will become the dominant deck in EMN standard and spiking enough to cover any losses from the 2 that failed. So, similar to a tournament report or set review, today I’ll just go card-by-card and give my post mortem on the positions I’ve closed recently. I don’t expect to do much movement in the next two weeks, so I’ll save the card-by-card of my current specs, the wide net, for next time. Unfortunately (?), some of my ‘wide’ specs have gained, but I’m terrified to sell virtually all of these standard specs, as I don’t want to lose out of any PT-generated spikes…but the PT is not for 3 weeks still. It’s a conundrum…



Current Portfolio:





Cleaning out the Closet

Wild Defiance : I picked up this spec early on in the competition. It’s very good in infect, especially when burn is prevalent, as it virtually guarantees they can’t kill any of your creatures. Thus, I think this card needs both of those things to line up for it to be a good spec – Infect AND Burn must be significant parts of the modern metagame. In a scenario that’s repeated itself often in battle of tix, I originally bought in with a playset at 0.89. When the price dropped and stayed low, I bought into 7 more at ~0.50 each. Going a bit deeper is what saved me, as I was only able to sell (literally the second before I wrote this) at an average price of 0.73. So, I could have had a slight loss, but instead had a 1 tix profit.

Glistener Elf & Groundswell : Both early specs, around the same time as Wild Defiance . I still think infect is a really good deck. I don’t quite understand why these cards haven’t increased in value. Maybe, *gasp*, Infect isn’t as good as I think? Or, maybe they are high-ish supply commons, whatever. I did make over 6 tix from the two of this, so that’s actually pretty good for some ‘lowly’ commons.

Proclamation of Rebirth : One of my “modern weekend specs,” I picked this up in case Martyr-Proc did well. I find it amusing how it dropped in price the day after I bought it. However, since then it’s pretty much just been steady growth. I chose to sell it sooner rather than later because you never know with MTGO. It could tank at any second for whatever reason. That’s not so bad if you don’t have a time limit, you just wait for Martyr-Proc to make a showing and it’ll spike. Battle of Tix does not afford that kind of luxury, though, so it had to go. I did manage a 2.4 tix profit, which isn’t nothing.

Allosaurus Rider : When Eldritch Evolution was spoiled, people started brainstorming ways to cheat something into play fast. Something like Myr Enforcer requires both too much setup and too much space in your deck for all the artifacts. My mind clicked on Allosaurus Rider as one possibility. While this also takes significant resources (three mana, evolution, riders, and exiling 2 green cards), it seemed like it could work. It was only 0.02 on MTGO, so I picked up 20 ‘just in case.’ Well, within a few hours it had spiked hard. I started selling my 20 at 0.37, then around 0.5. I really didn’t think it would take off like it did, so I sold the rest at 0.76 and finally 1.2, for an average selling price of 0.71. Yes, I made an easy 14 tix (a 3400% return), but I severely underestimated how much it would spike (it went to >3 tix!!!). I could have sold all 20 copies for 1.5 tix each…or more. As I write this, Rider is still in the process of crashing. I don’t think EvolutionRider will be real in any form and this will likely just drift down and be forgotten. However, if WotC prints a 9 mana, mythic Chicken (Gibletbrand?), then I could see this card exploding. What Johnny/Vothros wouldn’t want to evolve a dinosaur into a chicken?

Serum Visions: Serum Visions has had some crazy highs on MTGO, as supply is pretty low of 5DN and it’s a good card, both in Modern and Pauper. When it wasn’t reprinted in EMA, I figured it might spike so I bought a few. Its price fluctuated a bit while I held it. I decided I’d get out for a 2.8 tix profit, as it obviously wasn’t going to spike from ‘EMA panic’ like I had hoped. Long term it could be a good spec, though. At the very least, it’s one of those MTGO cards with many dips and peaks, so money could be made picking it up during one of its seemingly random crashes.

Hurkyl's Recall : Like Serum Visions , this was not printed in EMA AND its price was depressed by the 10E flashback drafts. I theorized that it was not seeing growth due to EMA reprint fear, and that EMA lacking a reprint would allow it to grow/spike. That didn’t exactly pan out, so I went ahead and sold the 3 I had gotten for a 1.3 tix profit.

Chord of Calling : I had originally picked up RAV Chord of Calling for modern weekend. It has not been doing great. During a low, I checked prices in a bid to go deeper and lower my average bought price for Chord. In doing so, I spotted some M15 Chords for 2.5, which was pretty much a steal – I managed to get 8 at that price. I figured the M15 version probably had more room to grow than RAV anyways, as there is a trickle of demand for this particular version from Redemption. Slow growth, Chord decks haven’t taken over Modern (yet?), so I only came out with a modest 5 tix profit.

Slippery Bogle & Nettle Sentinel : These were picked up during SSE flashback drafts. Like I’ve said previously, it can be difficult predicting the trajectory of flashback draft targets. I felt these two were at a low, so I bought in and each did indeed ‘spike’ within the week, allowing me to get out with a 10.7 tix profit. It felt like easy money, as if the goalie was asleep and I could simply nudge the ball into the goal.

Verdant Catacombs : I had been watching Catacombs and it’s improbably ascension to all time highs on MTGO ). Like Icarus, Catacombs flew too high and crashed back to Earth. Then, serendipitously, owing to the fact that MTGOTraders hotlist is alphabetical by set, Zendikar starts with Z, and Catacombs starts with V, I noticed Catacombs was there one day. This can sometimes be a signal of low supply or increased demand, leading to a price increase in the near future. I decided to check all the sell prices for catacombs and stumbled across a playset for 23.5/card. At that second, this was virtually buylist price (I think other bots were buying for, like 23 to 23.4). I feel like I lucked into a slam dunk here and snatched them up. It only took ~ a week for MTGOTraders hotlist to go up to 25-26. Being skittish, I went ahead and got out here, with a 8 tix profit. Of course, Catacombs can now be sold for closer to 30, meaning I left 18 tix profit on the table. :(

Lantern of Insight : Another ‘Modern weekend spec,’ in case Lantern Control did well. It didn’t and this was a loser in my portfolio for a while, if only because of the spread. For reasons beyond my comprehension, there was a slight uptick in the price of Lantern last week, so I snap got out of this position with a 1.6 tix profit.

Imperial Seal : I grabbed a couple of Seals when it was confirmed as absent from EMA, again hoping for some type of panic spike. It did not play out that way. I was fortunate to eventually find a favorable buy price and got out during my pruning for a 0.7 tix profit.

Stitch in Time : I really like Stitch in Time as a long term spec. There isn’t THAT much supply, as it’s from GPT. It’s a unique and potentially powerful effect. I peg it as unlikely to have a reprint. I grabbed this at the beginning of the competition mostly because of the depressed prices from flashback drafts and the fact that I’d have 5 months for it to hopefully hit a random spike. It didn’t look like it would happen, so I pruned it from my portfolio for a 0.07 tix ‘profit’….at least I beat the spread?

Remand : I saw many ups and downs with this. It seems like such a home run to me. MM2 reprinting, RAV flashbacks, and the banning of Twin killed the price of Remands – meaning a great time to buy. I’ve always loved Remand as a card, it just seems so powerful when it’s good. Again, as a long term spec, I really like remand (I have many outside of my Battle of Tix specs). When it was featured in one of $affronOlive’s decks, it had a mini spike and I decided to get out while the going was good to guard against future volatility.

Risen Executioner : Guys, zombies. You know we are still in Innistrad, right? There’s going to be zombies. People are going to expect zombies to be good. This will increase demand for zombie cards. It’s pretty simple, like a 1 foot putt. There was even a pre-existing pattern to pick up on – Executioner spiked prior to SOI’s release. It then faltered, as there wasn’t enough zombie support for standard (the only place Executioner could ever be played, most likely). Of course, it did randomly spike as soon as SOI hit MTGO. But, whilst everyone was selling cards to buy into EMA (presumably), it went back down to 1 tix, so I picked up 10. Amusing to me, it stayed at 1 for literally the entire time I was abroad and then immediately started to rise when I got back stateside. I would have gone deeper if not for that interruption. With that being said, my 10 copies did net me >1 tix each, for a total profit of 10.7 tix. Swish

Cabal Therapy : EMA on MTGO has been an interesting beast. One would expect the rapid crash of most prices, but the EV was so low that seemingly few drafts were happening. This led to an unexpectedly low level of new supply. That’s combined with many people trying to buy the cards as specs or just to try and get the cards, for play, at their low. This led to a great deal of volatility. While some amazing profits could have been made (such as picking up wastelands in the first few days at ~30 tix), it was really difficult to predict how each card would behave (as pretty much each one is different). Going through EMA, Therapy was one card I had identified as potentially having some potential, maybe. When Therapy dropped to 1.2 at the end of June, I started checking prices. To my surprise, there were very few copies available from bots, so supply was obviously very low. Additionally, look at the other printings, JUD Therapy had been at 18 (!) tix at one point. And, by one point, I mean just a few months ago. Additionally, the JUD printing had lost significant value, but was still ~4 tix…with EMA copies at 1.2 tix. Yeah, that seemed odd to me too. Combined, that data made Therapy a [sports metaphor], so I grabbed 16 copies and hoped for the best. To my delight, these popped up to ~3 tix within a week, so I made a hurried exit for a 20 tix profit. In hindsight , it looks like I pulled the trigger exactly on day early, as these hit nearly 4 tix, meaning I might could have squeezed another 10+ tix out of this spec, had I got the timing down perfectly. I can’t complain too much, though, as selling at some point during that spike seems to have been the right call, as EMA Therapy currently sits in the ~2 tix range.



