A 77 point haul was our reward in Gameweek 4, with captain Diego Costa (24), Roberto Firmino (15), Adam Smith (11), Kyle Walker and Dimitri Payet (both 10) all returning double-digit scores. Even our bench scored big, as Etienne Capoue registered 13 points but, ultimately, failed to get on the pitch for our squad. With the feel-good factor running through our veins on the back of a huge score, we promptly turn our attentions to Gameweek 5…

Defensive odds

Team Clean sheet odds Chance of a clean sheet Tottenham 52% Man City 51% Man Utd 2.11 47% Leicester 2.15 47% Arsenal 2.2 45% Everton 2.3 43% Southampton 2.3 43% Crystal Palace 2.4 42% West Brom 3 33% West Ham 31% Chelsea 3.4 29% Stoke 4 25% Liverpool 4.5 22% Middlesbrough 5 20% Swansea 5.6 18% Watford 6 17% Burnley 6.1 16% Hull 6.9 14% Sunderland 9.2 11% Bournemouth 11 9%

Mauricio Pochettino’s Tottenham top the bookmakers’ defensive ranks this weekend with a 52% chance of a shutout when they host Sunderland. The Lillywhites have kept 2 clean sheets in 4 Premier League games so far this term, whilst the Black Cats blanked last time out at home to Everton. With rotation a concern following European commitments, we opt for the security of Hugo Lloris in goal, along with Ben Davies, who should start with first choice left back Danny Rose sidelined courtesy of a hamstring complaint.

Manchester City rank second with a 51% chance of repelling their opposition when they welcome Bournemouth to The Etihad on Saturday. Whilst Pep Guardiola’s charges are yet to keep a clean sheet in the league this season, the Cherries have struggled in front of goal, notching just 3 times in their opening 4 games. As a result, John Stones and Pablo Zabaleta make our starting XI and bench respectively, with the £5.0m priced pair offering good value and a reasonable security of starts.

Manchester United (47%), Leicester (47%) and Arsenal (45%) complete the top 5 defensive prospects for fantasy managers this weekend. United travel to Watford for Saturday’s late kick off, and whilst the Hornets have scored in every game to date this season, the Red Devils offer us the third meanest defence in the league, having conceded just twice and keeping 2 clean sheets. Antonio Valencia is a dual threat courtesy of his attacking potential and starts for us this weekend. Leicester’s home game with Burnley affords their defensive assets the potential for returns on Saturday, but we choose to save funds for further upfield and complete our goalkeeping requirements by selecting Ron-Robert Zieler. Arsene Wenger’s men travel to an in-form Hull (the Tigers sit level with Arsenal on 7 points), but the bookies still rate the North Londoners’ chances of a shutout. Rob Holding, as the cheapest member of the Arsenal defence, even though he will likely be on the bench for the Gunners, makes our squad and takes the final spot amongst our substitutes.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from Hull (14% – home to Arsenal), Sunderland (11% – away to Spurs) and Bournemouth (9% – away to Man City) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Anytime goalscorer odds Chance of scoring Harry Kane 52% Kelechi Iheanacho 1.95 51% Zlatan Ibrahimovic 2.2 45% Vincent Janssen 2.2 45% Kevin de Bruyne 2.35 43% Olivier Giroud 2.4 42% Romelu Lukaku 2.4 42% Jamie Vardy 2.4 42% Diego Costa 2.5 40% Shane Long 2.5 40% Charlie Austin 2.62 38% Loic Remy 2.62 38% Riyad Mahrez 2.65 38% Alexis Sanchez 2.75 36% Christian Benteke 2.8 36% Raheem Sterling 2.88 35% Michy Batshuayi 2.9 34% Wayne Rooney 2.9 34% Salomon Rondon 2.9 34% Daniel Sturridge 3 33% Erik Lamela 3 33% Christian Eriksen 3.1 32% David Silva 3.1 32% Eden Hazard 31% Dusan Tadic 3.3 30% Kevin Mirallas 3.45 29% Nathan Redmond 3.5 29% Ross Barkley 3.6 28% Anthony Martial 3.6 28% Roberto Firmino 3.75 27% Simone Zaza 3.75 27% Sadio Mane 3.75 27% Yannick Bolasie 3.75 27% Andre Gray 3.8 26% Philippe Coutinho 3.9 26% Mesut Ozil 3.95 25% Nacer Chadli 3.95 25% Dimitri Payet 4 25% Abel Hernandez 4 25% Michail Antonio 4 25% Alvaro Negredo 4.1 24% Willian 4.1 24% Odion Ighalo 4.1 24% Wilfried Bony 4.1 24% Fernando Llorente 4.2 24% Gerard Deulofeu 4.2 24% Bojan 4.33 23% Marko Arnautovic 4.33 23% Santiago Cazorla 4.33 23% Troy Deeney 4.4 23% Callum Wilson 4.5 22% Cristhian Stuani 4.5 22% Manuel Lanzini 4.6 22% Andros Townsend 4.6 22% Sam Vokes 4.8 21% Jermain Defoe 5 20% Gylfi Sigurdsson 5 20% Gaston Ramirez 6 17% Joshua King 6.5 15% Robert Snodgrass 6.5 15% Duncan Watmore 7 14% Leroy Fer 8 13% Jordon Ibe 8.5 12% Roberto Pereyra 9.5 11% Etienne Capoue 15 7%

Harry Kane, after scoring his first goal of the season last weekend against Stoke, tops the bookies’ attacking ranks and dons our captains armband for Gameweek 5. The England hitman has a 52% chance of netting against Sunderland on Sunday, with the Black Cats conceding an average of 2 goals per game this term and being breached thrice against Everton last time out.

Kelechi Iheanacho (51%) and Romelu Lukaku (42%) join Kane up front in our starting XI. With Sergio Aguero suspended, the Nigerian starlet will lead the line for City against Bournemouth. After carding 10 points (goal, assist, 2 bonus) in 52 minutes against United, as well as scoring from the bench in the Champions League midweek, Iheanacho will be confident of further returns as the focal point of the Guardiola’s attacking juggernaut (11 goals in 4 games – the most of any side in the league). Lukaku, meanwhile, goes into a home game against Middlesbrough off the back of 5 goals in 2 games (2 for Belgium and a hat trick against Sunderland). Despite the Boro defence being sturdy, having averaged 1 goal per game against so far, the big Belgian will certainly be licking his lips in anticipation of facing one of last season’s promoted sides.

Viable options that we have overlooked up front include the enigmatic Zlatan Ibrahimovic (45%), as we need funds for our midfield, whilst Vincent Janssen (45%) and Olivier Giroud (42%) are not selected due to the lack of security surrounding their starting positions – they have started just 1 of a possible 8 Premier League games between them this season.

Despite a slow start to the domestic season, a home clash with Burnley sees Riyad Mahrez (38%) as our first midfield pick. The Algerian scored twice in Leicester’s maiden Champions League victory over Club Brugges on Wednesday to serve us a timely reminder of his talents. He is joined in the centre of the park by Chelsea’s Eden Hazard (31%), who has bagged fantasy returns (2 goals and 1 assist) in 3 of his 4 outings this campaign. Friday night’s game will pit the Belgian maestro against a Liverpool defence that has conceded 7 goals in 4, failing to keep a clean sheet in the process.

Dusan Tadic (30%) registered his first attacking returns of the season (assist) against Arsenal in Gameweek 4, and a home encounter with Swansea affords him the opportunity to truly kickstart his campaign. With penalties and set-piece duties in his locker, the Serb continues to offer the potential for big returns. The final midfield spot in our starting XI goes to Kevin Mirallas (29%). The Belgian has started life positively under Ronald Koeman, registering a goal and 2 assists in 4 games, and we hope for a continuation of those numbers as we double up on Everton’s attacking assets ahead of their home clash with Middlesbrough. Etienne Capoue (7%), top of the FPL points standings after 4 gameweeks, once again completes our squad and takes a place on our bench with his form (3 goals and an assist goals in 4) and price (£4.5m) making him the perfect enabler in the middle of the park.

The bookies also fancy the chances of Alexis Sanchez (36%), but the Chilean misses out on our squad due to his lofty price tag, despite scoring in midweek against PSG. Manchester City trio Kevin de Bruyne (43%), Raheem Sterling (35%) and David Silva (32%) all represent valid options ahead of their Etihad meeting with Bournemouth, but we have to forgo their services for Gameweek 5 as we already have 3 City assets, with Spurs duo Erik Lamela (33%) and Christian Eriksen (32%) also overlooked for the same reason.

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Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter. He will be back with Bookie’s Advantage articles this season!