Bruiser's Bandanna Triggerman's Tacticals Level Three Chin Endothermic Exowear Classified Coif Lunatic's Leathers Merc's Mohawk Egghead's Overalls Frickin' Sweet Ninja Hood Danger Rogue's Robe Scoper's Smoke Au Courant Assassin Spook Specs Red Socks Southie Shinobi Chronoscarf Vive La France Eye-Catcher Tipped Lid Allbrero Sengoku Scorcher Man in Slacks Sky Captain Seeing Double Frontier Djustice Six Pack Abs Razor Cut Smoking Skid Lid Yuri's Revenge Tools of the Trade Aviator Assassin Ze Übermensch Pomade Prince Gas Guzzler Joe-on-the-Go Peacenik's Ponytail Medicine Manpurse Employee of the Mmmph Paisley Pro Argyle Ace Frymaster Lonesome Loafers Combustible Kabuto Series #3

Sub Zero Suit Antarctic Parka Dogfighter Snow Scoper Nunhood Dead of Night Angel of Death Five-Month Shadow Ruffled Ruprecht Face Full of Festive Little Drummer Mann Blizzard Breather Golden Garment Extra Layer Mann Of The House Chucklenuts Scout Shako Tartan Tyrolean Marshall's Mutton Chops Dictator Trail-Blazer Slo-Poke Polar Pullover Kiss King Toy Soldier Neckwear Headwear Runner's Warm-Up Minnesota Slick Mann of Reason Tiny Timber Toy Tailor Highland High Heels Series #3

Medimedes Magical Mercenary Horsemann's Hand-Me-Down Hard-Headed Hardware Freedom Feathers Chicken Kiev Sir Shootsalot Mann-Bird of Aberdeen Haunted Hat Second Opinion Horrific Head of Hare Archimedes the Undying Burny's Boney Bonnet Spectralnaut Ethereal Hood Dark Helm Birdie Bonnet Cauterizer's Caudal Appendage Cap'n Calamari Face Plante Monster's Stompers Glob Quoth Beast From Below Foul Cowl Headtaker's Hood Macabre Mask Scorched Skirt Gothic Guise Guano Shaolin Sash Carrion Companion Faux Manchu Ivan The Inedible Grease Monkey Tuque or Treat PY-40 Incinibot Hound's Hood Up Pyroscopes Sprinting Cephalopod Bountiful Bow Grub Grenades Polly Putrid Space Bracers Lieutenant Bites the Dust Maniac's Manacles Baphomet Trotters Hollowhead Das Blutliebhaber Pocket Horsemann Crispy Golden Locks Hardium Helm Handhunter Vicious Visage Teutonkahmun Raven's Visage Cryptic Keepsake Abhorrent Appendages Accursed Apparition Terrier Trousers Snaggletoothed Stetson Rugged Respirator Lo-Grav Loafers Surgeon's Space Suit Trepanabotomizer Sackcloth Spook Transylvania Top Halloweiner Lordly Lapels Unidentified Following Object Beacon from Beyond Candyman's Cap Shaman's Skull Horned Honcho Monstrous Mandible Hallowed Headcase Larval Lid Ramses' Regalia Squid's Lid Hidden Dragon Mucous Membrain Carious Chameleon Vicar's Vestments Corpsemopolitan Manneater Last Bite Candleer Cadaver's Capper One-Way Ticket External Organ Pin Pals Bozo's Bouffant Hyperbaric Bowler Death Support Pack Jupiter Jumpers Grisly Gumbo Parasight Creature From The Heap Bozo's Brogues Faun Feet Spellbinder's Bonnet Alternative Medicine Mann Series #3

Pink as Hell The Bitter Taste of Defeat and Lime A Color Similar to Slate The Color of a Gentlemann's Business Pants Drably Olive Dark Salmon Injustice Grenadier's Softcap Series #1

Bruiser's Bandanna Triggerman's Tacticals Level Three Chin Endothermic Exowear Classified Coif Lunatic's Leathers Merc's Mohawk Egghead's Overalls Frickin' Sweet Ninja Hood Danger Rogue's Robe Scoper's Smoke Au Courant Assassin Spook Specs Red Socks Southie Shinobi Chronoscarf Vive La France Eye-Catcher Tipped Lid Allbrero Sengoku Scorcher Man in Slacks Sky Captain Seeing Double Frontier Djustice Six Pack Abs Razor Cut Smoking Skid Lid Yuri's Revenge Tools of the Trade Aviator Assassin Ze Übermensch Pomade Prince Gas Guzzler Joe-on-the-Go Peacenik's Ponytail Medicine Manpurse Employee of the Mmmph Paisley Pro Argyle Ace Frymaster Lonesome Loafers Combustible Kabuto Series #3

Pink as Hell The Bitter Taste of Defeat and Lime A Color Similar to Slate The Color of a Gentlemann's Business Pants Drably Olive Dark Salmon Injustice Grenadier's Softcap Series #1

Ranked for unboxing 25 or more crates in one session - minimize your losses

Bruiser's Bandanna Triggerman's Tacticals Level Three Chin Endothermic Exowear Classified Coif Lunatic's Leathers Merc's Mohawk Egghead's Overalls Frickin' Sweet Ninja Hood Danger Rogue's Robe Scoper's Smoke Au Courant Assassin Spook Specs Red Socks Southie Shinobi Chronoscarf Vive La France Eye-Catcher Tipped Lid Allbrero Sengoku Scorcher Man in Slacks Sky Captain Seeing Double Frontier Djustice Six Pack Abs Razor Cut Smoking Skid Lid Yuri's Revenge Tools of the Trade Aviator Assassin Ze Übermensch Pomade Prince Gas Guzzler Joe-on-the-Go Peacenik's Ponytail Medicine Manpurse Employee of the Mmmph Paisley Pro Argyle Ace Frymaster Lonesome Loafers Combustible Kabuto Series #3

Pink as Hell The Bitter Taste of Defeat and Lime A Color Similar to Slate The Color of a Gentlemann's Business Pants Drably Olive Dark Salmon Injustice Grenadier's Softcap Series #1

Ranked for unboxing a few crates (say a dozen or less) at a time - minimize your disappointment

Pink as Hell The Bitter Taste of Defeat and Lime A Color Similar to Slate The Color of a Gentlemann's Business Pants Drably Olive Dark Salmon Injustice Grenadier's Softcap Series #1

Bruiser's Bandanna Triggerman's Tacticals Level Three Chin Endothermic Exowear Classified Coif Lunatic's Leathers Merc's Mohawk Egghead's Overalls Frickin' Sweet Ninja Hood Danger Rogue's Robe Scoper's Smoke Au Courant Assassin Spook Specs Red Socks Southie Shinobi Chronoscarf Vive La France Eye-Catcher Tipped Lid Allbrero Sengoku Scorcher Man in Slacks Sky Captain Seeing Double Frontier Djustice Six Pack Abs Razor Cut Smoking Skid Lid Yuri's Revenge Tools of the Trade Aviator Assassin Ze Übermensch Pomade Prince Gas Guzzler Joe-on-the-Go Peacenik's Ponytail Medicine Manpurse Employee of the Mmmph Paisley Pro Argyle Ace Frymaster Lonesome Loafers Combustible Kabuto Series #3

Ranked by highest Chance of Disappointment and lowest yield. Stay away from these unless you really don't care about burning keys

2018.01.14

Possibly your keen mind has figured this out already given almost 3 years without an update but... Yes, the crate spreasheet project is dead.

The July 2015 introduction of skins and grades in the Gun Mettle update has made the spreadsheet much too difficult to generate and the unboxing of skins is much too varied for a statistical methodology to pay off.

But boy was it fun for a while :)

I'm leaving this page here as an homage to a simpler time.

2015.03.12

Looks like there's a new trend afoot. The re-release of rare old stranges. #92 has a rare chance at the Strange Kritzkrieg!

It appears that starting with #90 some crates will contain "rare" stranges. In #90 it was the Caber and the AWPer. In #92 it's the Kritzkrieg. Note that at this time I'm just guessing actual rarity and putting it at 1.5% simply based on the amount of these items appearing in trades as opposed to the "common" items from the same crates

In addition, many stranges that were previously only available as festives are now "normal" stranges. And some really cool new ones.

And of course The Bison Strangifier!

2015.02.11

There's two new Mann Co. Supply Munition crates. #91 contains some killstreakifiers but it's #90 that's grabbing my attention.

In addition to re-releasing the Strange Ullapool Caber from Salvaged Mann Co. Supply Crate #30 (so expect that strange's value to drop drastically) it also introduces the next laser weapon strangifier (Cow Mangler 5000) plus 3 new strange parts as well as giving us a strange version of the AWPer hand (a reskin).

Note that at this time the unusual series in these crates is unknown but no new effects appeared in the schema.

2014.12.23

Hurray! We've got a Festive Shotgun, the first multi-class festive. Other than that, the usual barrage of cosmetics and weapons. Also, it looks very much like Frostbite, Molten Mollard, Morning Glory, and Death at Dusk are limited to the EOTL and 2014 Naughty and Nice crates.

I have to admit, I'm mostly excited about all the other changes in this, shall we call it "Demoman's Smissmass"...

2014.08.13

The latest release put another dagger into Crate #42 with the re-release of the Buildings Destroyed part in Crate #85. But the most puzzling of all is the Widowmaker Strangifier in that same crate. The Strange Widowmaker was previously only available in Salvage Crate #40, a very rare crate. Should Salvage Crate #30 strange owners be worried that a Kritzkrieg or Gunslinger Strangifier is going to be in a future crate? My initial guess is no, because the Widowmaker was special and exists in Genuine form (it's a crossover from Deux Ex). Still, it's something worth keeping an eye on.

2014.06.18

The Stockpile Crate has an interesting new mechanic. Typing in a phrase "randomly" picks 4 items from a pool of 44. I say "randomly" in quotes because the phrase you type in is a seed to a randomizer. The phrase "crate", for example, will always generate the same 4 items. When you use the key one of these 4 items will the be released. This means that you can control your chances much better than with a usual crate. If the item you want is one of the 4 shown, your chance is 25% (not 2.25%). The Analyzer takes this into account and calculates everything based on this mechanic by taking the best available item and combining it with the 3 worst items (always taking the most pessimistic approach). Note: There are actually two different Stockpile Crates and my guess is that each has a different randomizer function but draw from the same pool of 44 cosmetic items.

One very interesting bullet point in the Love and War update is that crates now list which series of unusual effects are available inside! This was one of the longest standing unusual unboxing myths, never proven definitely, although data from several sources including a study from base64 pointed toward this conclusion already. There are many very observant unusual traders who were vindicated as a result. Me? I'm eating crow :)

We now know definitely which series of crates contain which effects series!

Finally, the Audition Reel has a chance of an Unusual Taunt...

2014.04.01

After 217 days, The Reserve Crate is no longer dropping. Expect the prices of this crate (and its contents) to begin a slow but sure climb.

I think weapon strangifiers are the going to be the game from now on. It makes sense when you think about it: you don't want to get a strange when you have a killstreak version. Also, omg, Phlog Strangifier... one of the signs of the apocalypse!

Also, i was off by a few months, but... R.I.P. crate #42, Headshot Part has been re-released!

2014.02.07

Early days are the best time to make profit from cosmetics in a new crate.

Searching

Take advantage of the search box to find a specific crate series, for example #42, and switch between tabs to see how they rank in each grouping.

You can also search for items, for example "Gib Kills", or an unusual series, for example "Series #1", which will list the crates that contain them.

Linking

You can link to any crate in the spreadsheet directly by using a url of the form http://trade.tf/crates#_crate[series number]_ .