TORONTO – There are a lot of ‘ifs’ involved, of course, but there’s a reasonable case to be made that under the right circumstances, the Toronto Blue Jays should have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on their major-league team later this summer.

First, the caveats. The Blue Jays would most likely have to keep winning at the MLB level. Guerrero Jr. would have to stay healthy. He’d have to keep hitting like this – .387/.440/.651 with as many walks as strikeouts entering play Thursday — or at least close enough to it that no doubt remains about his bat, and likely stop at triple-A along the way.

His defence would have to continue progressing at third base. And team decision-makers would have to believe that he could handle the spotlight at 19 years old — because there’s no telling how bright it would be for this son of a Hall of Famer whose continued offensive excellence makes him the best prospect in baseball.

Even if all of those conditions are met at some point this summer, obstacles would still exist. There’s the downside risk that Guerrero Jr. would falter and that struggles at the MLB level would stall his development or cause unnecessary stress. There’s also the fact that if you promote him this year, you’re essentially giving up team control over Guerrero Jr. in 2025 – his age-26 season. That alone would be a considerable loss, but one the Blue Jays appear willing to accept under the right circumstances.

Because there’s no doubt there could be significant benefits to calling him up, too. Evaluators on other teams believe his bat would play in the majors now, perhaps even as one of the Blue Jays’ best hitters. Realistically, he might be better than the hitters available in trade this summer, and there’s no acquisition cost as far as prospects or dollars.

“This would not be a rush-job,” one executive said. “He has crushed it everywhere he’s gone.”

Plus, the goal is to win, right? The Orioles probably don’t regret the decision to promote Manny Machado in 2012, even though he’s now on the brink of free agency. They made the playoffs that year, advancing to the ALDS as a wild-card team. Same with the Red Sox and Rafael Devers. By promoting him last summer, they started his service clock early, but he was the best bat available to them at a time they were trying to win.

There comes a point that prospects force teams’ hands. We’re definitely not there yet with Guerrero Jr., who has all of 126 plate appearances above Class A, but at a certain point it becomes obvious when teams are attempting to game the system. The Cubs kept Kris Bryant down for three weeks in 2015 and got an extra year for their patience. Keeping him down for much longer would have been a bad look.

Given their market size, the Blue Jays don’t need to minimize costs the way the Rays or Athletics might, and they’ve shown a willingness to start the service clocks of top prospects such as Anthony Alford.

Granted, the Blue Jays are typically deliberate when it comes to player development, but for them to control Guerrero Jr.’s age-26 season, they’d have to keep him in the minors for nearly another calendar year, until late April 2019. The way he’s hitting, another full year in the minors hardly seems necessary. That’s one reason why many measured executives around baseball see a reasonable path to a 2018 debut for Guerrero Jr.

“They almost have to, don’t they?” asked one evaluator.

We’re not there yet, but on this trajectory where Guerrero Jr. mashes and the Blue Jays win more than they lose, the answer could become ‘yes’ by July or August.