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For the majority of the season, Washington Capitals’ netminder Braden Holtby has drawn a considerable amount of attention for his amazing run, and for that reason he’s been highlighted as the favorite for the Vezina Trophy as top goaltender. His stat line is certainly impeccable — 39-7-3 with a 2.23 GAA and a 0.923 save percentage — but ultimately his candidacy has been largely driven by the fact that he has the chance to set a record for most wins by a goaltender in a season.

While this is certainly impressive, at this point he shouldn’t be the favorite.

That honor belongs to New York Rangers’ franchise netminder Henrik Lundqvist. Not only is Lundqvist the most consistent goalie in the league today, but he’s arguably been the most valuable to his team this year outside of Cory Schneider of the New Jersey Devils. What Lundqvist has done for the Rangers is nothing short of amazing, and he’s actually on pace to outperform what helped him take home the trophy in 2012.

At this point of the season my top contenders for the Vezina have to include in Corey Crawford in addition to Holtby, Lundqvist and Schneider.

Near misses for the top four include Petr Mrazek and Roberto Luongo. Mrazek has played exceptionally well this season, but having only 40 starts hurts his chances of supplanting the other netminders listed.

Luongo could sneak into the mix due to his renaissance this season for the Florida Panthers, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he were to knock out Schneider. There may be some mixed opinions due to the inclusion of Crawford, but the numbers will show how good he’s actually been for the Blackhawks this season.

From a traditional stats perspective, here are how Crawford, Holtby, Lundqvist and Schneider matchup.

The conventional numbers give Holtby a decisive edge in wins, but in the other categories such as goals against average and save percentage there is little separation. Schneider’s performance has been exquisite on a New Jersey Devils squad that is devoid of talent, and with a few more wins he’d be the full on favorite.

Lundqvist’s numbers are solid as always and Crawford’s stat line is one of the best he has had in his career to date. You might be saying that Crawford’s numbers are inflated by the fact the Blackhawks are a powerhouse that have dominated practically everyone they have played, but that isn’t the full story.

Therefore here is a look at the contenders and how they have performed in 5v5 situations.

This data not only does a good job painting the picture of why Lundqvist should be the Vezina favorite, but it also shows why Schneider and Crawford have played better than they have been given credit for.

This season Lundqvist has spent 2425.85 minutes playing 5-on-5 hockey, in which he’s only allowed 69 goals. The average shot faced has come from 30.68 feet away which means he faces the closest shots of the above contenders. It is simply astounding that he’s got an impressive Corsi save percentage of 0.970— or percentage of total shot attempts against that are saves — and a goals against average of 1.71 after facing 1,212 shots.

For context, the year Lundqvist won the Vezina he posted a 5-on-5 Corsi save percentage of 0.966 and a goals against average of 1.94 in 2882.18 of total time on ice, with the average shot coming from 28.12 feet away. That season is considered his best to date, and he’s on pace for another amazing season at age 33.

This production is a better representation of Lundqvist’s 2015-16 performance as it shows what his overall numbers could look like if not for standing behind one of the worst penalty kill units in the league. In simple terms, Lundqvist once again has had to be a major difference maker. The only other team in a playoff position that is as routinely outshot as the Rangers is the Florida Panthers.

Schneider and Crawford have also played solid hockey allowing 76 goals respectively while playing at least 2,300 minutes of hockey 5v5 while facing over 1,100 shots. The difference between them and Lundqvist, outside a lower save percentage and a higher goals against average, is the distance of average shot faced.

At 32.08 feet and 33.92 feet respectively, both Schneider and Crawford have faced shots that have come farther away, and therefore have more time to react to said shots. Still, their 5-on-5 production is rock solid when coupled with their overall numbers, and only further legitimizes their respective candidacies.

Last but not least is the current favorite Braden Holtby. Although he’s garnered a ton of attention he doesn’t matchup well against the others in more advanced statistics. Holtby ranks last is distance of average shot faced, total 5-on-5 ice time, shots against, and is tied for fourth in goals against average. The lone category in which he finished third was goals against, but if his 5-on-5 on time was comparable to the other three it would assuredly be higher.

While the discrepancy of 5-on-5 numbers versus the other candidates shouldn’t completely hurt Holtby’s case, his fall to Earth since January 1 should. Since January 1, Holtby is 15-2-2 but has a paltry goals against average of 2.78 and a save percentage of 0.907. In essence, the strength of the Washington Capitals offense has allowed Holtby to pad his win total while his overall save percentage and goals against average have flattened out.

If Schneider or Lundqvist had posted a 2.78 goals against average and a 0.907 save percentage over that stretch it is fair to say that their respective teams wouldn’t have gone 15-2-2. The Devils would be closer to contending for a lottery pick than a playoff spot, and the Rangers would still be fighting for a wild card position. Crawford is likely the only other goalie who could have posted a a similar stat line without consequences because the Blackhawks have just been that good this season.

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What Holtby has accomplished is worth mentioning, but if you look at his performance in 2016 to date it is hard to see him as the legitimate favorite. The 15 wins earned while posting a goals against average of 2.78 and a save percentage of 0.907 are the difference between him having 24 wins and 39 wins. He’s had a good season overall, but it is hard to say that he’s been the top goalie.

He may set a record for most wins in a single season by a goaltender, but will he be able to say that he was the reason for winning all of those games?

Schneider hasn’t had a ton of help this season, but he’s found a way to get it done night after night. His lower win total hurts his chances in the big picture, but he should still be considered a finalist. Crawford has had the luxury of playing behind an amazing team, but his overall performance while facing a multitude of shots is worth mentioning.

When you break it down, Lundqvist is the goaltender that checks all the boxes, and that’s why he should win the award. He’s posted solid overall numbers, he’s been a beast 5-on-5, he’s faced a lot of shots, many of which are high quality chances. Defensively he has not had the support he’s enjoyed in previous years, and he’s been beyond valuable to his team.

Whether or not Lundqvist actually wins is a different story altogether, but for right now, he should be the undisputed favorite.

Stats via Corsica Hockey.