Former Virginia Representative Tom Davis, who chaired the National Republican Congressional Committee during both the 1998 and 2000 elections, says he believes a backlash against impeachment cost only three Republicans their seats, all in 2000: Jay Dickey, who represented the district in Arkansas that included Clinton’s hometown of Hope; Brian Bilbray, who lost to Democrat Susan Davis in a San Diego, California–area seat; and James Rogan, who helped manage the House’s impeachment case during the Senate trial. Rogan lost one of the country’s most expensive and closely watched races to a young Democrat named Adam Schiff—who is, coincidentally, now one of the leading members investigating Trump as chair of the House Intelligence Committee. With those exceptions, Davis says, “there was no punishment” for impeachment.

Read: What Pelosi’s pivot on impeachment really means

Yet Davis thinks Democrats in Trump-leaning districts could face more risk, simply because politics has grown more polarized and tribal in the two decades since Clinton’s impeachment. “The parties are more ideologically sorted than they were before,” says Davis, now a lobbyist in Washington. “Second, Trump is a personality cult, so I think his people take this a little more personally. And the third thing is [closer] proximity to the next election” than the December 1998 impeachment vote was.

The other big difference is that, unlike Clinton, Trump will be on the ballot in 2020 (absent the unlikely event of enough Senate Republicans voting to remove him from office if the House does eventually impeach him.) “There is no escaping Trump,” says Sarah Binder, a senior fellow in governance studies at Brookings. “He is the 800-pound elephant … There is no escaping his relevance to this election. It just seems that might be quite different than what happened in 2000 once you had Clinton departing from the scene.”

Yet Binder is one of many analysts who think Trump-district Democrats could face only modest risks even if the House does impeach him. That’s partly because she thinks the Ukraine allegations are easier for voters to comprehend than the complex, carefully hedged report on Russian interference in the 2016 election produced by Special Counsel Robert Mueller. “These folks in these districts—they have a little bit of wind in their back because the Ukraine issue seems a little more tangible, a little more understandable,” she says.

Other analysts point to Trump’s uncertain position even in the Democratic-held districts that he carried. Trump was hardly a colossus in those 31 seats in 2016: He exceeded 51 percent of the vote in only six of them, and reached 50 or 51 percent in just seven more. He beat Hillary Clinton while drawing less than half of the total vote in the other 18 of those seats.

That distinction hasn’t escaped the Democratic members in those districts: By the time Pelosi made her announcement on Tuesday afternoon, 10 of the 18 Democrats from districts where Trump won with less than half of the vote had endorsed an impeachment inquiry. By comparison, at that point, only four of the members from the 13 Democratic-held seats where Trump did reach a majority had joined the call for impeachment proceedings, according to the tracker maintained by Politico.