Could the Ontario Liberals win without Wynne? Right now their poll numbers are sunk somewhere down around the Mariana Trench — but according to a new Mainstreet poll, all it would take for the party to edge back into majority territory would be a new face at the helm.

If Premier Kathleen Wynne were to quit and hand the reins to someone else, says the poll, her party would get 29 per cent of voter support, besting the Progressive Conservatives at 28, the NDP at 16 and the Greens at 5 per cent (22 per cent of voters would remain undecided). If she stays, and if nothing else changes, she presides over a Liberal rout: The PCs are polling at 35 per cent — which puts them within swinging distance of a majority — the Liberals at 21 per cent, New Democrats at 18, Greens at 5, 21 per cent undecided.

“The Liberal brand in Ontario is still very very strong,” said Mainstreet President Quito Maggi, “but (Wynne’s) own personal brand … she’s wearing all the negatives.”

That’s a lot of negatives. Under the Liberals, a succession of deficit budgets have pushed the provincial debt to over $300 billion. Job growth remains sluggish, with unemployment at 6.7 per cent. Hydro rates have doubled since 2003 and rose 15 per cent in the last year alone. Wynne’s recent promise of an 8 per cent rebate to hydro consumers seems to have done little to stem public anger: At a recent agricultural fair, she was booed by farmers struggling with sky-high electricity bills.

Under Wynne’s leadership the Liberals also struggled on the labour front, striking unpopular sweetheart deals with teachers’ unions while failing to strike a deal with the province’s doctors. They hiked taxes on the wealthy, on tobacco and airline fuel. They spent $70 million to create an Ontario Pension Plan — the centrepiece of Wynne’s 2014 election campaign — only to scrap the idea when Ottawa agreed recently to increase CPP benefits.

Meanwhile, an investigation by the Globe and Mail revealed that Ontario cabinet ministers were given “cash-for-access” fundraising quotas — news that prompted party finance reform and was followed by the recent resignation of Wynne’s fundraising director.

The Liberals can argue that Brown cannot be trusted. Given Wynne’s record, that message might be far more powerful coming from another leader. The Liberals can argue that Brown cannot be trusted. Given Wynne’s record, that message might be far more powerful coming from another leader.

So with two years to the next election, should Wynne step aside? Her predecessor, Dalton McGuinty, threw in the towel in 2012 when it became obvious that voters would not give him another term. Public anger over cancelled gas plants contracts that cost taxpayers close to a billion dollars had hit a boiling point and became the subject of public hearings — conveniently suspended when McGuinty resigned and prorogued the legislature.

Then, as now, Ontario’s premier had no heir apparent. As the leadership race accelerated, polls and pundits predicted a victory for former Windsor MPP Sandra Pupatello. But at the Liberal leadership convention, Wynne won enough endorsements and delegates from her other rivals to put her over the top. She went on to win the 2014 election against similar odds, after Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak pledged to axe 100,000 public sector jobs. Despite the obvious need to shrink government spending, voters found Hudak’s cost-cutting zeal excessive and off-putting, and gave Wynne a majority government.

This time around, Wynne faces a lesser-known PC leader. Patrick Brown has made a lot of news lately over his ‘flip-flop’ on the province’s updated sexual education curriculum, brought in under Wynne’s watch. When he ran for party leader in 2014, Brown assured social conservative groups that he would repeal the changes, which school Grade Three kids on the concept of gender identity and explain anal sex in Grade Seven. Brown has since changed his position, having published an open letter in which he pledges that he “will never support removing LGBT sensitivity or combating homophobia from schools. It is important to have sex education to combat homophobia, and raise important issues like consent, mental health, bullying, and gender identity.”

While some observers applaud Brown for isolating the party’s so-con wing and tacking to the centre, others wonder whether the PC leader actually holds any beliefs he’s willing to stick to under pressure. The danger for Brown isn’t so much that he alienates so-con Conservatives by moving to the center on sex-ed, but that voters start to ask whether his word is his bond on other policy matters — including the key issues of taxes, debt and hydro reform.

The Liberals cannot condemn Brown’s change of heart on the sex-ed curriculum — but they can argue that he can’t be trusted. Given Wynne’s record, that message might be far more powerful coming from another leader. And the Liberals would be better off going with a leader from outside of Queen’s Park; ministers Charles Sousa, Deb Matthews and Eric Hoskins might be natural contenders for the crown, but they’re also wearing Wynne’s legacy.

If the Liberals intend to switch horses, they need to do it soon — and bloodlessly. A graceful exit would be far better for them than a palace coup.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.