SACRAMENTO — California will need to restructure daily life and dramatically bolster its public health resources in the coming weeks, or possibly months, before it can lift a statewide stay-at-home order meant to slow the spread of the coronavirus, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Tuesday.

Newsom laid out a “road map to recovery” with six factors that he said must be met before restrictions on going to school, doing business and gathering in public can be lifted. They include starting widespread testing that would allow the state to isolate people exposed to the virus and trace people with whom they have come in contact.

But even when the lockdown measures are modified, Newsom warned, life will be “anything but” normal. People might need to wear face coverings in public for months, he said, and mass gatherings could be canceled for the foreseeable future, until the state reaches “herd immunity” — the point at which enough people have been exposed to the virus to prevent its transmission — and scientists develop a vaccine.

That means there could be no major sporting events or concerts in California for the next year or longer.

“We are not out of the woods yet, and we are not spiking the ball,” Newsom said at a news conference. “But we also extend a recognition in that light that this can’t be a permanent state, and I want you to know it’s not. It will not be a permanent state.”

In addition to developing widespread testing ability, along with building up a public health system that can contain new cases, Newsom’s criteria for restarting public life include:

More Information Newsom’s reopening criteria Gov. Gavin Newsom spelled out six criteria Tuesday that California must meet before the state’s stay-at-home order to protect against coronavirus spread can be modified or lifted: 1Widespread testing that would allow the state to isolate people exposed to the virus and trace people with whom they have come in contact. 2The ability for the state to care for older and medically vulnerable Californians, who are most at risk of suffering severe effects from the virus, as they continue to isolate at home. 3The capacity for hospitals to handle a potential surge in patients, plus resume normal preventive and other medical care. 4The identification of promising treatments. 5The development of guidelines for businesses and schools to allow physical distancing even as they reopen. 6The creation of a data-tracking system that provides an early warning if the state needs to reinstate a stay-at-home order.

Read More

• The ability for the state to care for older and medically vulnerable Californians, who are most at risk of suffering severe effects from the virus, as they continue to isolate at home.

• The capacity for hospitals to handle a potential surge in patients, plus resume normal preventive and other medical care.

• The identification of promising treatments.

• The development of guidelines for businesses and schools to allow physical distancing even as they reopen.

• The creation of a data-tracking system that provides an early warning if the state needs to reinstate a stay-at-home order.

“We need to have a clear system in place so we know not only when we are making great progress, but also when we need to take a step back,” said Sonia Angell, director of the state Department of Public Health.

Newsom did not provide a specific timeline for modifying the state’s stay-at-home order, saying the decision is “predicated on our ability to answer all of those questions in an affirmative manner.” He added that some communities may reopen before others if local officials determine it is safe to do so.

But he suggested that the next two weeks would be critical, telling reporters to “ask me the question again” in early May.

“I know you want the timeline, but we can’t get ahead of ourselves,” Newsom said. “Let’s not make the mistake of pulling the plug too early.”

He noted that 71 Californians who had tested positive for the coronavirus died Monday, the most yet in a single day.

George Rutherford, an infectious disease expert at UCSF who has worked closely with San Francisco health officials on the city’s response to the outbreak, said the state’s plan aligned with what he and others would recommend. He praised Newsom for not getting “bullied into saying we’ll stop by a certain date.”

If sheltering in place continues to slow the state outbreak, Rutherford added, restrictions could start to be lifted in a month.

“I’d guess the second week of May. But that’s just a guess,” he said. “That’s if everything goes well. This could still go south — it could easily go south.”

Newsom issued the first statewide stay-at-home order in the country March 19, after officials estimated that more than half of Californians could be infected with the coronavirus without drastic action. All but a handful of governors have since followed suit, keeping most of the nation under lockdown except for essential trips for groceries or medical care or to exercise.

The slowing spread of the virus in recent weeks shifted Newsom’s mind-set to the next phase of the crisis.

Although his administration originally projected that California would need 50,000 additional hospital beds during a coronavirus peak in late May, the demand is now tracking far below those estimates. On Monday, there were 3,015 confirmed and 2,000 suspected coronavirus patients in hospitals statewide, less than half of what public health officials expected on that date, according to a model provided by the California Health and Human Services Agency.

Key to Newsom’s strategy for reopening the state is dramatically increasing access to coronavirus testing and building up public health resources so new cases can be quickly identified and contained before they spark another outbreak. That will require significant investment in staff and equipment over the next few weeks.

Art Reingold, an infectious disease expert at UC Berkeley, said he was concerned that most counties lack the necessary staff and resources to contain new infections. He said Newsom failed to outline how certain vulnerable populations — such as residents of nursing homes and homeless shelters, and people in jails and prisons — would be protected once society reopens.

The state already has reported several outbreaks in nursing homes, shelters and prisons.

“Being ready to ease restrictions means having the staff who can do all this work,” Reingold said. “How soon could you be ready to do all this? In terms of hiring and training? And where does the money come from? I’m not sure.”

Dr. Mark Ghaly, the state health and human services secretary, said the state is working to expand testing so that anyone with symptoms — not just the sickest people already at hospitals — can be tested. Ghaly said he hopes California will test tens of thousands of people each day by the end of April.

The state is now testing about 9,400 people a day. Doctors have complained about a shortage of tests and testing supplies like swabs and chemical reagents.

Ghaly did not specify how the state would reach tens of thousands of tests per day. But a state task force has proposed identifying labs with the most unused testing capacity and sending samples there.

“Once we hit that level and we know that individuals who have symptoms can get tested and the results available rapidly, we’ll be able to think about modifying these orders,” Ghaly said.

Bay Area health officials imposed their own stay-at-home order three days before Newsom issued his statewide directive. The Bay Area orders are in place through at least May 3. Dr. Sara Cody, the Santa Clara County health officer, would not say at a news briefing earlier Tuesday whether the counties would lift restrictions at the same time as the rest of the state.

“We’re thinking very carefully about what we need to have in place in order to ease this very broad mitigation, this very broad shelter in place,” Cody said. “I know that this is what everyone is talking about and everyone is thinking about. But it’s enormously complicated.”

San Francisco Chronicle staff writer Catherine Ho contributed

to this report.

Alexei Koseff and Erin Allday are San Francisco Chronicle staff writers. Email: alexei.koseff@sfchronicle.com, eallday@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @akoseff, @erinallday