Republicans are trying to end the Florida Senate race before it even begins.

In one dramatic day this month, the entire race — one of roughly a half-dozen on which control of the Senate rests — was turned on its head. First, GOP Sen. Marco Rubio dropped his retirement plans and announced plans to run for reelection. Within hours, the CBS affiliate in Miami aired a bombshell investigative story accusing the Democratic establishment's chosen candidate, 33-year-old Rep. Patrick Murphy, of rampant résumé inflation.


Now, Republicans smell blood in the water, and they're looking to damage Murphy so badly that Democrats are forced to spend heavily on his behalf ahead of the state's Aug. 30 primary — or abandon the race altogether. The GOP is adopting a strategy that's been used against it repeatedly in recent election cycles: Propping up a politically toxic, outside-the-mainstream candidate in the other party's primary, in this case firebrand liberal Rep. Alan Grayson.

"I think anybody would rather run against Grayson” in the general election, said Sen. Dean Heller of Nevada, a vice chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

The reversal of fortunes in Florida could hardly have come at a better time for Republicans, after weeks of negative headlines about their presumptive presidential nominee, Donald Trump, and increasing concerns about a down-ballot disaster for the party. If Republicans can put the Sunshine State race out of reach, it would substantially boost their hopes of retaining the Senate. The party is clinging to a four-seat advantage, but faces an electoral map tilted decidedly in Democrats' favor.

Florida was seen as a better-than-even Democratic pickup before Rubio changed his mind, given Trump’s lousy poll numbers in the diverse state and a slate of underfunded and little-known Republican candidates. Now, Republicans have not only a top-tier incumbent, but a major TV takedown of the leading Democrat: The CBS story, which Murphy's campaign has aggressively sought to refute, questioned his stated credentials as a CPA and other business experience. Republicans promptly launched an ad off it, backed by $45,000. It's running on cable in the D.C. area, to sow doubt among donors and operatives about whether Murphy is worth their investment.

“I don’t think it’s helpful,” said Sen. Bill Nelson of the focus on Murphy’s biography. The Florida Democrat, who's staying out of his state's Democratic primary, said he saw the anti-Murphy ad while watching MSNBC's "Morning Joe" this week.

Democrats insist they're still bullish about the Florida race. They predict the race will be close no matter what, and dismiss the GOP effort to boost Grayson over Murphy in the primary as wishful thinking. The Democratic Party's Senate campaign arm and leadership-backed Senate Majority PAC say they have no plans to drop some $20 million in television reservations for the state. (The NRSC and Senate Leadership Fund haven’t reserved any time in Florida yet, though the Koch brothers' network has.)

“The arguments against Rubio are far stronger and will cut more persuasively with the voters than any of this stuff," said Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).

Murphy has issued a point-by-point rebuttal of the TV story and is pointing to a PolitiFact piece debunking some of Republicans' attacks as a "must read." Murphy himself has mostly stayed away from the media since the story ran but has continued business as usual, traveling to Missouri on Sunday to raise money at Sen. Claire McCaskill’s house with a slate of other Democratic candidates. His campaign declined an interview request for this story.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is not ruling out spending in the primary to get Murphy over the hump against Grayson, senators said. Republicans note that the DSCC spent roughly $3 million to help Katie McGinty defeat former Rep. Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania's April Democratic primary, and dream of a Florida intraparty showdown draining the DSCC’s bank account of $10 million or more. On Thursday, Murphy reserved $1.7 million in TV ads for the primary.

To that end, Republicans have been busy talking up Grayson.

“Alan Grayson, he’s got some appeal … he speaks to the base," NRSC Chairman Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said playfully. And the TV story on Murphy? "Pretty devastating," Wicker said.

Of course, Republicans and many Democrats believe Grayson could never win statewide in Florida. He's beset by multiple ethics investigations and questions about his family's financial ties to slave labor in Africa.

Democrats say they remain confident of their chances in Florida. Murphy’s campaign manager, Josh Wolf, mocked the GOP ad airing in Washington, saying "D.C. may as well be Rubio’s home state.” Still, Democrats are circling the wagons, questioning the timing of the CBS report — it aired the same day that Rubio announced — and the quality of the reporting.

“That was totally BS,” DSCC Chairman Jon Tester of Montana said of the story, adding that Republicans "know they can’t beat Murphy. They know that.”

In an email, CBS reporter Jim Defede said the timing was “entirely coincidental.” He’d been working on the story for months and had hoped to run it the week before, but the Orlando shootings altered the station's plans.

Defede reported that Murphy, contrary to his campaign claims, did not win contracts in Gulf cleanup efforts, that his oil skimmers had not undergone recent tests as his company claimed and that he was not technically a CPA in Florida.

Murphy’s campaign says the report glossed over its response to the claims and released a detailed rebuttal. It cataloged seven changes that have been made to the online version of the story since publication.

Democrats say Republicans’ glee over the controversy is meant to obscure their concerns about a Murphy-Rubio match-up.

“It's no surprise that Republicans are worried and want to prop up a candidate like Alan Grayson,” said Galia Slayen, a spokeswoman for Murphy.

But the GOP is still dumping out anti-Murphy oppo: On Wednesday, Republicans' alleged Murphy was also involved in a "pay-to-play" scheme.

Rubio says he's preparing for a tough race — Trump remains a huge wild card in the race regardless of Murphy's problems, and the state naturally favors Democrats in presidential election years. Plus, Rubio has his own primary against well-heeled developer Carlos Beruff, who's attacking the incumbent as a creature of the D.C. establishment. Rubio's campaign account is also nearly empty after his presidential race, while the Senate contest is expected to cost tens of millions of dollars.

For now, the Florida senator is training his fire on Murphy and Grayson.

“You can’t believe anything [Murphy] says … this guy’s lied about everything he’s ever done,” Rubio said in an interview. And “Alan Grayson is insane."

Rep. Patrick Murphy would face Sen. Marco Rubio in the November election if he comes out on top in the state's Democratic primary. | AP Photo

If Republicans had any concerns about Rubio running for reelection, it was the perception that he’s damaged goods after getting crushed in Florida's March presidential primary and that he’s using his Senate seat again to run president. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), a big Murphy backer and Grayson detractor, declined to discuss Murphy’s biography issues with a reporter this week, instead ripping into Rubio.

“One thing I like about Patrick: He comes to work every day. He is here for meetings,” Reid said. Rubio “should give back all the taxpayers’ money that he’s taken by not being in the Senate."

Grayson is not a pushover but may struggle to keep up with Murphy, who has a cash-on-hand advantage of $5.6 million to Grayson’s $430,000. While Grayson has some ability to self-fund, there are questions about how substantial and liquid his fortune is. And while Grayson’s more liberal record on issues like Social Security and foreign policy should endear him to Democratic primary voters, his ethics controversies will make for potent attack ads.

President Barack Obama’s endorsement has proven invaluable in Democratic primaries, and Florida’s Democratic electorate is about 25 percent black. A radio ad featuring Obama’s endorsement is airing on urban radio in the state.

The first poll after Rubio’s reentry from Florida TV stations showed that Murphy is tied with Rubio and favored to defeat Grayson in the primary. But if Republicans can even make the Democratic primary more competitive, it could force Murphy and the DSCC to spend precious resources before the general election.

“I think we can inflict serious damage on Patrick Murphy, and then cause serious trouble for Democrats nationwide,” said a top national Republican strategist involved in the anti-Murphy strategy.

Grayson is spoiling for a fight, launching a new six-figure ad buy this week. He, too, would not submit to an interview for this story, but his campaign attacked Murphy in a manner not unlike a Republican.

"By misrepresenting himself to voters for years, Patrick Murphy not only broke his trust with constituents, he broke faith with the president, Harry Reid and other Democrats who went out on a limb to promote Murphy's conservative record,” said Grayson campaign manager Michael Ceraso.