Week 4 has a large amount of big games. I think great teams will be separating themselves this week and showing their stripes. Regardless of who you cheer for, it will be hard to not find an entertaining game to watch this week. If you are looking for a specific game, they are listed in order of start time.

Michigan at Wisconsin

Betting Line: Wisconsin-3.5

Over/Under: 44.5

Michigan comes into this game off of a bye, but did not impress in their last outing. The Wolverines needed double overtime to get past Army and survived that game by the skin of their teeth. Offensively, Michigan struggled to get anything going on the ground. The longest run all day was 12 yards and they had to really grind out yardage the whole game. The Wolverines have to be able to have some semblance of big play potential. Tru Wilson will hopefully be healthy, which he was not for the Army game and that will help everything out. The Wolverines also need to take care of the ball. Michigan has five turnovers in their first two games, and they can not just grant Wisconsin more opportunities with the ball. This especially goes for quarterback Shea Patterson who has fumbled four times this season and lost three of them. Patterson also needs to improve in the passing game this week. Jon Runyan will be back at offensive tackle, and Donovan Peoples-Jones will also likely be back at receiver. The return of those two who have not been healthy all season, will be huge for Michigan (they are listed as probable for Saturday so a return is not guaranteed but it is likely). Wisconsin has not given up a point yet this season and Michigan will need to find a way to move the ball consistently on that defense. For Michigan’s defense, they will be playing against the best running back in the country in Jonathan Taylor (he is the best in the country and I do not want to hear you argue for anyone else). Taylor is complimented by a very strong offensive line, something Wisconsin always has. Michigan did well against Taylor last season, but that was with a much better defensive line. Michigan’s front seven will need to not let Taylor run all over them. This goes for Ben Mason, Aidan Hutchinson, Kwity Paye and the defensive line as well as Khaleke Hudson, Josh Uche, Devin Gil and the linebacking corps. I think Michigan should force Wisconsin to try and beat them through the air. With Michigan’s strong secondary and Wisconsin’s lack of a consistent passing game in recent years, I have faith in Michigan winning that battle.

Wisconsin had a bye week to rest up for this game and they are coming off of two dominant performances. In their two games, the Badgers have outscored their opponents 110-0. While running back Jonathan Taylor is the obvious star of the show on offense, one pleasant surprise has been the solid play of quarterback Jack Coan. Through two games this season, Coan has completed 76% of his passes for 564 yards and five touchdowns. Coan has not necessarily played amazing competition, but this is still progress. Coan will be playing against a very good Michigan defense and will have a bit more asked of him this week. While Taylor obviously needs a good day, Coan needs to do well to keep the defense from fully keying Taylor. If Coan can do that, Wisconsin should be deadly on play action. The offensive line also needs a good day. On defense, the defensive line will need to hold up against a very good Michigan offensive line. I would suggest putting pressure on Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson early and try to force turnovers. Linebacker Zack Baun is the leader of the defense and also needs to have a good game.

Prediction:

Michigan comes out on top 20-17 in an absolute bloodbath.

UCF at Pittsburgh

Betting Line: Pittsburgh +11

Over/Under: 61

UCF had a huge win over Stanford last week. The Knights had not played a big time Power Five program during the regular season since their regular season winning streak of 25 games started so this was a huge game for them. UCF proved their worth and then some when they won 45-27. The game was also not as close as the score would indicate as UCF was ahead 38-7 at halftime. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel really proved his worth as he threw for 347 yards and four touchdowns. Gabriel will be expected to have another big game this week. If Gabriel and running back Greg McCrae can both play well, it should be a good day for UCF’s offense. On defense, Pittsburgh had some strong showings at receiver in their last game and UCF needs to prevent a repeat performance from the Panthers. Taysir Mack had 125 yards last week and AJ Davis had 94 of his own. Richie Grant can hold things down at safety, but UCF’s cornerbacks need a good day as well. Tay Gowan and Nevelle Clark will need to both rise to the occasion.

Pittsburgh fought hard last week, but still fell to rival Penn State 17-10. They had opportunities to win but did not take advantage of those due to poor clock management and play calling. They also kicked a field goal from the 1 yard line when they were down by seven points with less than five minutes remaining and they deserved to be called out for not going for the touchdown. Also it certainly did not help that they missed that field goal. Kenny Pickett actually had a pretty good day at quarterback as he completed 35/51 passes for 372 yards. Taysir Mack looked like a stud at receiver as he hauled in 12 catches for 125 yards while AJ Davis added 94 yards. If the passing game can see that kind of success against UCF, it will be a good start for Pittsburgh. Where the Panthers really struggled was in the run game. Against Penn State, the Panthers averaged less than one yard per carry and did not have a single run of 10 yards or more. As I have previously said about Pittsburgh, Kenny Pickett can not carry the offense. The run game needs to be reliable in order for Pittsburgh to move the ball consistently against UCF. This means improved play will be needed from the running backs and the offensive line. Also the offensive play calling will need to be better. On defense, I think Pittsburgh needs to play an attacking style at first. Doing so will put pressure on a true freshman quarterback and can hopefully stunt UCF’s run game. While Dillon Gabriel is a good quarterback and is better than one would expect a true freshman to be, I still think sending people at him early could rattle him. Jalen Twyman, Deslin Alexandre, and the defensive line as a whole need to win the battle in the trenches.

Prediction:

Pittsburgh makes it ugly, but UCF still wins 28-20.

Auburn at Texas A&M

Betting Line: Texas A&M -3.5

Over/Under: 48

Auburn ran absolutely wild in their last game, a win over Kent State. JaTarvious Whitlow ran for 135 yards and two touchdowns while Shaun Shivers added another 102. The Tigers ran for a total of 467 yards and six touchdowns on 7.5 yards per carry. Once Auburn gets things going on the ground, stopping them becomes a real chore. If Auburn can have solid play from their offensive line, the run game should develop and will make things very tough for Texas A&M. Tackle Prince Tega Wangoho did not play against Kent State but it looks like he will play this week. Wangoho is the best player on Auburn’s offensive line and having him back will be a boost. Whitlow should be able to have a good day, and I also would watch for backup quarterback Joey Gatewood getting to run the ball in some packages. Having the run game succeed will also take some of the pressure off of Bo Nix at quarterback who will be playing his first ever true road game. Nix can not shy away from the moment in this game. He did well against Oregon, but playing at Texas A&M will be a whole other ballgame. On defense, Auburn’s defensive line will need to do their thing once again. Nick Coe, Marlon Davidson, Derrick Brown, Tyrone Truesdell, and Big Kat Bryant are all very good players that can give opposing offensive lines fits. If they can keep up their strong play, things will be tough for Texas A&M. I also think Auburn will need to account for Texas A&M receiver Kendrick Rogers. Javaris Davis and Noah Igbinoghene will need to be sound in coverage.

Texas A&M ran through Lamar last week by a score of 62-3. The Aggies had a great all-around game but it was against an FCS opponent. On offense, Texas A&M has run the ball well against lesser opponents, but struggled heavily against Clemson. While Clemson might be the best team in the country, Auburn’s defensive line is comparable to Clemson’s. Texas A&M has to hold their own on the offensive line. While it would be ridiculous to expect the Aggies to win this battle, they can not get run over. The run game needs to at least be semi present. Isaiah Spiller has done well at running back against lesser competition but did poorly against Clemson. Kellen Mond also has to have a good game at quarterback if Texas A&M wants to win. Mond has been very hot and cold over the last couple seasons. He can not go cold against Auburn as he will have to shoulder a heavy load this game. Mond can not get comfortable in the pocket this game either and has to be ready to make quick decisions. On defense, the Aggies will need to bear down up front. Auburn likes to rely on the run game and forcing them out of their comfort zone will be big for the Aggies. Putting pressure on a true freshman quarterback for Auburn will also work wonders for the Aggies.

Prediction:

Auburn’s defense is too much to handle for Texas A&M as the Tigers gets the road win 27-24.

Washington at BYU

Betting Line: BYU +6.5

Over/Under: 51

Washington had a nice rebound win last week as they beat Hawaii 52-20. The Huskies looked back in control on offense as they amassed 450 yards and averaged over eight yards per play. Jacob Eason had a good day at quarterback, completing 18/25 passes for 262 yards and three touchdowns. Tight end Hunter Bryant was Eason’s top target as he had 115 receiving yards. Salvon Ahmed has not done quite as good as I would have thought at running back but he is still a solid option. The key to the game on offense for Washington is making sure Eason has a solid game and does not struggle like he did against Cal. BYU has a solid secondary that picked off USC three times. Eason must stay consistent. Aaron Fuller and Andre Baccellia need to get open and create separation at receiver as well. Defensively, the Huskies will need to account for BYU quarterback Zach Wilson. Wilson is a scary player to go against as he thrives in broken plays and has great abilities as a dual threat. I suspect Washington will use a quarterback spy on Wilson. Myles Bryant looks to be the likely guy to spy on Wilson and he needs to do well in that role. Washington can not also let BYU just march down the field like Cal did a couple of weeks ago.

BYU is coming off of a very big win for the program. The Cougars took down USC 30-27 after a back and forth game. This was also the second straight game BYU won in exciting fashion. Zach Wilson had a strong game at quarterback. Wilson (who has earned and embraced the nickname Mormon Manziel) is very good as a dual threat and has great improvisational abilities. Wilson will need to do well again against Washington and can not make any dumb plays which he tends to do at times. The Cougars also need to find another source of yardage on offense. I think that source will likely be running back TySon Williams but some other player needs to shoulder a load. On defense, the secondary needs to stay sharp. Cornerback Dayan Ghanwoloku establishes himself as a dude at cornerback against USC and needs to keep riding the high, as does the rest of the secondary. Washington quarterback Jacob Eason has a strong arm and will not be afraid to test BYU’s secondary. They can not let Eason see too much success doing that.

Prediction:

I am feeling bold. I think BYU wins an exciting game 24-23.

Oregon at Stanford

Betting Line: Stanford +10.5

Over/Under: 57.5

After their opening weekend loss to Auburn, Oregon has taken out their frustrations on lesser opponents. Their last game was a 35-3 win over Montana. Justin Herbert is an immense talent at quarterback and has thrown for 868 yards and 11 touchdowns this season without throwing an interception. Herbert has a very strong arm, but he has struggled in big games and in tough environments before. Herbert must break this habit soon. Oregon’s receivers also need to create separation and get open. Defensively, the Ducks will be playing against a beaten up Stanford offensive line. Defensive tackles Austin Faoliu and Jordon Scott will need to do well, but the players in key spots to succeed are defensive ends Gus Cumberlander, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and DJ Johnson will like up against an injury plagued duo of offensive tackles. If they can exploit that advantage, Oregon will have a field day. The Ducks will have to be sound in coverage against Stanford tight end Colby Parkinson. Whoever covers him needs to not get outmuscled.

Stanford will likely be licking their wounds a bit this week as they have been blown out for two straight weeks. The Cardinal lost 45-20 to USC two weeks ago and lost 45-27 to UCF last week. KJ Costello had a rough day at quarterback, but it was clear he was battling injury and I think he should be better for this game. He needs to step up this game if Stanford wants to keep things interesting. Luckily for Costello, he did very well against Oregon last season. One of the big issues that has plagued Stanford this season is their lack of skill position talent, which they have always had previously. Cameron Scarlett was a solid complimentary back in 2018, but has struggled being the guy this season. He has to do well this game in order to keep Oregon’s defense balanced. Stanford will be without Walker Little and possibly Foster Sarell (who will not be 100% if he plays) on the offensive line and they will need to overcome that. On defense, Stanford will be going against the brick wall that is Oregon’s offensive line. The defensive linemen on Stanford need to get penetration and not get run over by that strong unit. Paulson Adebo player very well at cornerback against Oregon last season and will need a repeat performance.

It should be noted that this game has become a rivalry in the last 10 years and always yields crazy results. Any time a team looked primed for a run, they seemed to lose this game.

Prediction:

Oregon takes advantage of a worn down Stanford and wins 38-17.

Oklahoma State at Texas

Betting Line: Texas -6.5

Over/Under: 72.5

Oklahoma State rose to 3-0 on the season last week with a 40-21 win over Tulsa. The Cowboys have been absolutely lethal offensively throughout this season. Chuba Hubbard ran for 256 yards against Tulsa. Hubbard, the Canadian native, leads the country with 521 rushing yards this season. This also is not due to a large amount of carries as he averages 7.9 yards per carry. If Hubbard gets going against Texas, Oklahoma State will be starting a step ahead on offense. Spencer Sanders has done well in his first season as a starter, but this will be his first big test. Sanders is a good dual threat and is accurate, but he often forces the ball to covered receivers and makes some freshman mistakes. He can not get jarred in a tough environment if Oklahoma State wants to win and he needs to take care of the ball. Tylan Wallace is one of the best receivers in the country (Jerry Jeudy is the only one I would confidently put ahead of Wallace) and absolutely toasted Texas last season. Wallace will need to have a similar performance Saturday night. I assume Texas will key on Wallace, so fellow receivers Dillon Stoner and CJ Moore need to be ready. On defense, the Cowboys have to be able to contain Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger. I suspect that nickel back Kolby Peel will be that spy and he needs to fill that role well. The Cowboys also need to do well in coverage. AJ Green and Rodarius Williams will have their hands full, but need to hold their own.

Texas had a nice rebound win last week as they beat Rice 48-13. The Longhorns had a very good day offensively against Rice and have one of the nation’s most high powered offenses. Sam Ehlinger is still establishing himself as one of the nation’s best quarterbacks as he has thrown for 956 yards on the season while completing 73% of his passes and also can make big plays with his legs. Ehlinger will need to make some big things happen this game as well. Ehlinger will enter this game as the very obvious focus of Oklahoma State’s defense and needs to always keep them on their toes. The Longhorns need to hold up well on the offensive line too as there is a serious lack of depth at running back. Zach Shackelford will return at center for this game which will be a huge help. Oklahoma State has a weak defensive line and if Texas can exploit that mismatch, they could just gash the Cowboys with Ehlinger and Keaontay Ingram (that might be risky though since if Ingram gets hurt, third strong quarterback Roschon Johnson will be taking running back duties). Collin Johnson will likely be back this week after missing the Rice game with a hamstring injury. Johnson will need to have a good showing. Thankfully for Texas, they have seen other receivers step up. Devin Duvernay and Brennan Eagles have had good seasons so far and it will be nice if they keep the ball rolling. Defensively, Texas can not let Tylan Wallace dominate them like he did last season. Wallace had 220 receiving yards against Texas last season and 200 of those were in about the first 2.5 quarters before Oklahoma State tried to run down the clock. Texas needs to defend him well. Jalen Green will do a lot of the coverage on Wallace, but the Longhorns will also likely shadow a safety over the top. Green and that safety (which will probably be Brandon Jones) need to do well. If Texas can simultaneously play aggressive up front, they will have a good day. Forcing turnovers should also be a big focus on defense for Texas.

Prediction:

This game ends up being a shootout and Texas wins 48-44, beating Oklahoma State in Austin for the first time since 2008.

Notre Dame at Georgia

Betting Line: Georgia -14.5

Over/Under: 58

Notre Dame is coming off of a blowout win over New Mexico (in the Bob Davie Bowl) by a score of 66-14. Through two games, Ian Book has thrown for 553 yards on the season. Book also threw for five touchdowns against New Mexico. Book also has seen success running the ball this season as he has 127 rushing yards, half of the amount he put up last season. Book will need to be accurate this game if Notre Dame wants to move the ball consistently, especially with the injury to Jafar Armstrong at running back. Notre Dame’s offensive line needs to hold up well in this game, both blocking in the trenches and going up to linebackers. Notre Dame needs to win this battle. Chase Claypool will be looked to a lot at receiver and he will need to perform. Claypool is a big receiver at 6’5” and can use his height to his advantage against a shorter Georgia secondary. On defense, Notre Dame struggles stopping the run. This does not go well coupled with the fact that Georgia has a very good running back and a very good offensive line. Defensive tackles Micah Dew-Treadway and Daelin Hayes need to hold their own. The matchup between defensive ends Julian Okwara and Khalid Kareem against Georgia offensive tackles Andrew Thomas and Isaiah Wilson will be something to watch. If Kareem and Okwara can contain the outside and hold down their spot on the line. Notre Dame will be in a good spot. Linebackers Asmar Bilal and Jordan Genmark Heath also need to be ready to step up and make plays.

Georgia had a dominant 55-0 win over Arkansas State last week, putting the Bulldogs at 3-0 on the season and ranked third in the country. Jake Fromm continues to impress at quarterback as he has completed 75% of his passes so far this season. D’Andre Swift has stepped up quite a bit at running back and had become one of the best in the country at his position. Swift is a very good power runner and can always get the hard yard. Behind Swift is a very solid stable of backs including Brian Herrien and Zamir White. Georgia also has one of the best offensive lines in the country led by tackles Isaiah Wilson and Andrew Thomas. If Georgia can continue to wreck shop up front, they should be able to run all over Notre Dame. I also expect Fromm to kill Notre Dame with play action. Defensively, I think Georgia needs to focus on having good pass coverage. Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book does not have a strong arm but he is extremely accurate and poised in the pocket. Tyson Campbell and Eric Stokes need to have a good day in pass coverage.

Prediction:

Notre Dame keeps it close but Georgia wins 30-24.

To be notified when I post, follow my Instagram @impassionedsportsnerd. We can just go ahead and not talk about how I went 2-3-2 last week on my picks. I am 13-8-2 on the season.

Share this: Twitter

Facebook

Like this: Like Loading...