Illustration: John Shakespeare The June 2010 Penrith byelection delivered an early indication of what the voters thought of that move, handing Keneally's government a 25 per cent swing against it to make a fledgling politician by the name of Stuart Ayres the new Liberal member. The victory was seen as a watershed opportunity for a change of political culture in NSW. It heralded the thumping general election victory the following year, promising a new beginning, courtesy of a new Coalition government led by Barry O'Farrell, for the long-suffering people of Australia's largest state who had witnessed the revolving door of four premiers in five years. Yet as 2017 draws to a close ironically it is Ayres, hailed as the hero of Penrith at the beginning of his career, who is being cast alongside his Premier Gladys Berejiklian as a villain as sports minister.

From hero to zero? NSW Minister for Sport Stuart Ayres is under fire over the stadiums announcement. Credit:AAP The announcement that the government will spend $2 billion knocking down and rebuilding ANZ and Allianz stadiums is emerging as a portent of an existential threat for the Coalition at the March 2019 election. How is it that the Coalition, despite the level of voter anger expressed against its opponents, has ended up here after less than two terms in charge? It certainly hasn't squandered its opportunities. The budget is in rude surplus, NSW leads all other states on most economic indicators as tens of billions of dollars of transport and other infrastructure projects are underway. These are the legacy items of O'Farrell and his successor Mike Baird. O'Farrell, with Baird as treasurer, set about budget repair with a focus on cutting expenses, including by sacking public servants and controversially limiting the pay increases of those left.

Baird's crazy brave decision to take electricity privatisation to the 2015 election earned him a place in NSW political history. The dividends of those transactions and earlier budget repair are there for all to see as cranes dot the horizon. But far from the promise of stable government, NSW is on its third Coalition premier courtesy of O'Farrell giving false evidence to ICAC over a $3000 bottle of Grange and Baird quitting suddenly after copping such a battering over issues including lockout laws and his failed bid to ban greyhound racing. In between there was an ICAC inquiry into fundraising by the Liberals before the 2011 election that saw ten of the party's MPs resign from parliament in disgrace. One lesson from all this must be that having suffered through so much turmoil in recent years under both Labor and the Coalition, the people of NSW are understandably difficult to keep onside. Trust in the political class in NSW is almost non-existent. Cartoon bad guys like Obeid and Tripodi might be long gone but the wounds they and others inflicted are far from healed.

It's why when Berejiklian tries to talk about the transformation WestConnex will deliver the people of western Sydney she is drowned out by angry voices of the inner west and outrage about the tolls that will be imposed for decades. Talking about delivering for the greater good is fine, but when to achieve it you bulldoze communities and force people from their homes with inadequate compensation, don't expect them to thank you. It's why the Sydney Metro and CBD and South East light rail are for many not celebrated as "congestion-busting" infrastructure but derided as a sop to property developers intent on ruining local communities with their insatiable desire for higher density. It's why the stadium announcement is met with howls of outrage from people who know their local school needs urgent repairs and their hospital emergency department is hopelessly under-resourced. It's also why the coming election feels like a significant turning point in NSW politics – but one that has probably come a term too early.

The Coalition will be punished, most likely, for failing to restore the trust of many voters, as advertised back in March 2011. But, understandably, many will be unwilling to trust the ALP so soon after the previous Labor government disgraced itself so comprehensively. The vast majority of the opposition front bench remains largely untested. So voters look like being presented with an unenviable choice: put Labor back into power so soon, or re-elect a Coalition government for a third term and 12 years in power. There are still 15 months to go, but right now it feels a bit like the lead-up to the 2007 poll when Morris Iemma beat Peter Debnam to win Labor a fourth term. And we know how that turned out.