Obamacare repeal doomed (for now), could haunt Senate Republicans in 2020

With Zach Montellaro

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races — and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news — sign up for Campaign Pro today. (https://subscriber.politicopro.com/proinfo)


ON THE HILL — “Obamacare repeal could haunt Senate Republicans in 2020,” by POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney and Elana Schor: “Obamacare dogged Democrats for years at the polls, toppling their congressional majorities and stoking partisan fires that still burn in Washington. But if Republicans are ultimately able to pass their own health care plan, they will face their own repercussions — and some will hit at a painful time. Like the 2010 health care law, the GOP bill would not take effect all at once. Many of the most politically tricky provisions are staggered over the coming years and would hit right as a promising group of freshmen Republican senators come up for reelection in 2020.” Full story.

— ICYMI — “Four Republicans block Obamacare repeal bill in Senate,” by POLITICO’s Burgess Everett and Jennifer Haberkorn: “Republican Sens. Mike Lee and Jerry Moran said Monday night they will join two other senators to oppose the Obamacare repeal bill, dooming the GOP initiative in the Senate.” Full story.

FEC ROUNDUP — House battleground totals via Campaign Pro’s Scott Bland: “Nine incumbents in districts rated as competitive by the Cook Political Report were outraised by challengers in the second quarter: GOP Reps. Rob Woodall (GA-07), Dave Trott (MI-11), Robert Pittenger (NC-09), Leonard Lance (NJ-07), John Faso (NY-19), John Culberson (TX-07), Tom Garrett (VA-05) and Barbara Comstock (VA-10), and Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright (PA-17). Most of those challengers were fueled by self-funding, but Democrats running against Trott, Pittenger, Faso and Garrett, as well as two Democrats running against Culberson, outraised the incumbents without large candidate loans or contributions. ... [I]in 12 of these districts, multiple Democratic challengers raised at least $100,000 apiece ahead of 2018 primaries. Four Democrats reached six figures in the races against Faso (who raised $337,000 in the second quarter), Culberson ($336,000) and Comstock ($441,000).” Full story.

— Q2 FUNDRAISING — Alabama: “GOP Sen. Luther Strange raised $1.85 million in the second quarter of 2017 and has $1.33 million cash on hand with less than a month to go until Alabama's special Senate primaries,” according to figures obtained by POLITICO.

— California: “Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) raised just under $630,000 in the second quarter and has slightly more than $3.5 million on hand, according to an unofficial e-filed FEC report,” POLITICO reported.

— Ohio: “Republican Josh Mandel's Ohio Senate campaign raised $1.3 million in the second quarter. Mandel, the state treasurer, also brought in $400,000 to a joint fundraising committee connected to his campaign, a leadership PAC, and the Cuyahoga County GOP's federal committee,” POLITICO reported.

2020 WATCH — “ As Party Drifts Left, Pragmatic Democratic Governors Have Eye on White House,” by The New York Times’ Jonathan Martin: “Many elected Democrats have drifted left since the party’s shattering defeat last November, turning to a brand of progressive politics that is closer to Senator Bernie Sanders’s democratic socialism than the more market-friendly liberalism that characterized the Obama era. But when the nation’s governors gathered here over the weekend for their annual summer meeting, a group of pragmatic Democrats took center stage. And now one of them is taking the first steps toward seeking the presidency in 2020. ‘I believe the time is right to lend my voice, the voice of someone that after getting elected has been able to govern in what’s viewed as a red state,’ Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana said in an interview. Mr. Bullock is creating a federal political action committee, Big Sky Values PAC, that will offer a political infrastructure to let him meet Democratic donors, contribute to the party’s candidates and fund his out-of-state electoral travels.” Full story.

Days until the 2017 election: 112.

Days until the 2018 election: 476.

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2018 WATCH — FIRST IN SCORE — Democrat Matt Longjohn jumps into MI-06: Longjohn, a doctor and a former national health officer for the YMCA, is launching his bid to challenge GOP Rep. Fred Upton, per a statement from his campaign. Check out his website here.

— MN-01: State Sen. Carla Nelson, a businesswoman and former teacher, is considering a bid, per a GOP source.

— CA-39: Two more Democrats jumped into the race against GOP Rep. Ed Royce, doubling the Democratic field. Sam Jammal, a former Democratic Hill staffer and Obama appointee, is in, per Orange County Register, as is Navy veteran Gil Cisneros, a former lottery winner, who was endorsed by VoteVets, according to the Los Angeles Times.

— MN-02: It's a rerun in Minnesota. Angie Craig, the Democratic nominee in 2016 when the seat was open, will try to take on GOP Rep. Jason Lewis again in 2018, via the Twin Cities Pioneer Press.

— HART WASN’T IN IT — GOP Rep. Vicky Harzler will not challenge Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill in 2018, the Kansas City Star reports. Her fundraising in the second quarter was paltry, bringing in only $143,150. “While I am honored by the support I’ve received, it is my belief this race is for another solid conservative to pursue and win in 2018,” she said in a statement.

MIXED MESSAGES — “With 2018 looming, Democrats divided on their core message,” by the Associated Press’s Steve Peoples and Bill Barrows: “House Democratic Caucus Chairman Joe Crowley hesitated when asked about his party’s core message to voters.‘That message is being worked on,’ the New York congressman said in an interview this past week. ‘We’re doing everything we can to simplify it, but at the same time provide the meat behind it as well. So that’s coming together now.’ The admission from the No. 4 House Democrat — that his party lacks a clear, core message even amid Republican disarray — highlights the Democrats’ dilemma eight months after President Donald Trump and the GOP dominated last fall’s elections, in part, because Democrats lacked a consistent message.” Full story.

FROM THE COURTROOM — “FEC sues Rivera over campaign cash fraud scheme,” by POLITICO Florida’s Matt Dixon: “After failing to reach a deal with David Rivera, the FEC is suing the scandal-plagued former Florida congressman over much-litigated allegations that he helped prop up a straw candidate to help his 2012 reelection bid. The new FEC civil complaint breathes new life into a campaign fraud scheme that led to federal convictions for both Ana Alliegro, a GOP operative who worked with Rivera, and straw candidate Justin Lamar Sternad.” Full story.

2020 FORESIGHT — "Group seeks Michigan ballot proposal to end gerrymandering," by the Detroit Free Press' Paul Egan: "The group Voters Not Politicians would have to collect close to 316,000 valid signatures to get the proposed constitutional amendment on the November 2018 ballot. ... The proposal would establish a 13-member independent citizens commission on which independent voters would have five members, and the two major parties would each have four. ... [VNP president Katie Fahey] said her group has raised more than $100,000 but plans to use volunteers, rather than paid signature collectors. She said more than 7,000 people have volunteered to participate. Robert LaBrant, senior counsel at the Republican consulting firm the Sterling Corp. and a former Michigan Chamber of Commerce official with extensive involvement with redistricting efforts in Michigan, said the proposal gives considerable influence to a partisan Secretary of State, partly by requiring that none of the commissioners have any political experience." Full story.

ELECTION PROTECTION — “ Colorado to require advanced post-election audits,” by POLITICO’s Eric Geller: “Colorado on Monday said it will become the first state to regularly conduct a sophisticated post-election audit that cybersecurity experts have long called necessary for ensuring hackers aren't meddling with vote tallies. The procedure — known as a "risk-limiting" audit — allows officials to double-check a sample of paper ballots against digital tallies to determine whether results were tabulated correctly. The election security firm Free & Fair will design the auditing software for Colorado, and the state will make the technology available for other states to modify for their own use.” Full story.

— Groups deliver 300,000 petitions to DOJ: Advocacy groups will deliver 300,000 petitions to the Department of Justice today that call for an investigation into potential Russian interference in the election. Every Voice, Common Cause, End Citizens United and Daily Kos launched the petitions after the emails from Donald Trump Jr. were released last week and quickly gathered signatures.

ADMINISTRATION SPEED READ — “Steven Mnuchin, Trump’s treasury secretary, is hurtling toward his first fiasco,” by The Washington Post’s Damian Paletta: “Shortly before he was sworn in as treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin spoke with his predecessor to get some advice. Pay attention to the debt problems in Puerto Rico, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew warned Mnuchin, and remember that China’s currency issues are more complex than the incoming president, Donald Trump, had suggested during the campaign, according to two people briefed on the exchange who spoke on the condition of anonymity to reveal private discussions. And in pointed remarks, Lew told Mnuchin to take the debt ceiling seriously — or face a potential financial crisis. Months later, Mnuchin is hurtling toward his first fiasco, unable to get Congress, let alone his colleagues in the Trump administration, on board with a strategy to raise the federal limit on governmental borrowing.” Full story.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "The reality is we're hearing that this is just a nothing deal and no conflicts are there — yada, yada. But the reality is, it's hard to believe that as a candidate.” — Minnesota state Rep. Nel Pierson said about the news that Republican Jim Hagedorn, a Republican running to replace Rep. Tim Walz, was dating the GOP Party chairwoman, The Post Bulletin reported.

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