Todd Spangler

Detroit Free Press

WASHINGTON – A month after it appeared the race for president in Michigan might be all but over, Republican Donald Trump has cut deeply into Democrat Hillary Clinton’s post-convention lead, with an exclusive new Free Press/WXYZ-TV poll showing Trump has moved closer to tying Clinton in a state that hasn't backed a Republican nominee since 1988.

Clinton, whose lead in some national polls also has disappeared lately after a successful convention this summer in Philadelphia, still leads Trump 38%-35% in Michigan, according to the poll done by Lansing-based EPIC-MRA for the Free Press, WXYZ-TV (Channel 7) and their outstate partners. But that is within the poll’s 4-percentage-point margin of error, and a significant drop from her 11-point lead last month.

“The race is tightening a lot in Michigan,” said Bernie Porn, EPIC-MRA’s pollster. “It may be a function of the timing of the survey and her health questions, (but) there has been a shift toward Trump. Whether it’s going to be a permanent shift is yet to be determined.”

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Clinton has led practically all of the head-to-head polls against Trump taken in Michigan, so it is not clear whether he can break through in the state. But the trend suggests that he has the potential for closing the gap — potentially putting a key Democratic state in play.

Trump, unlike other recent Republican presidential candidates, has doggedly refused to write off Michigan, despite Clinton’s earlier lead and a history of the state’s voting for every Democratic presidential candidate since 1992.

While the real estate mogul and reality TV star hasn’t spent widely on TV ads in the state, he has still outspent Clinton on air recently, and, perhaps more significant, has made four visits to the state since early August — including one Wednesday to Flint. On the national stage, he also has relied more on scripted speeches and avoided making off-the-cuff statements that, at times, have even alienated supporters.

Clinton, meanwhile, had a tougher road in August, with media reports continuing to raise questions about whether people who gave to the Clinton Foundation had special access to her while she was secretary of state.

Then, last week, she referred to half of Trump’s supporters as being “deplorables” and labeled them as bigots, though she later recanted the suggestion that she knew the percentage of his supporters who fit that label.

Trump has made comments about immigrants that some say fuel racial divisions.

For the new poll, EPIC-MRA surveyed 600 likely voters beginning last Saturday, the day after Clinton’s remarks about Trump’s supporters and a day before she took a few days off the campaign trail to battle pneumonia. The poll found Clinton retained broad-based support across the state, but that her numbers had fallen since the last poll.

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The topline numbers showed her leading Trump, 38%-35%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson (10%) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein (4%) trailing. Thirteen percent remained undecided. In a two-way match-up, Clinton had a slightly larger edge, beating Trump 42%-38%.



Trump has clearly improved his standing among several demographics as the Nov. 8 election moved closer, however: Among white voters, what had been a 38%-36% lead for Clinton a month ago is now a 40%-32% lead for him. He also has taken a lead among men — 38%-33% — where she had held what was the slightest of margins in August.

He held an edge among voters with a high school education or less — 40%-36%. But he also gained among those with some post high-school education, and led Clinton, 36%-32%. Clinton led among college graduates, 41%-32%.

Perhaps more troubling for Clinton — who despite a sizable lead in the polls in the March primary lost to rival Bernie Sanders in Michigan — was a drop-off in support needed from key groups.

Where she led among every age group a month ago, she now trails with voters 50-64 by 41%-33%. And what had been a 24-point lead among voters 18-34 has dropped to 7 points, 31%-24%, with Johnson picking up support to match Trump’s (24%).

Also, where Clinton led among black voters, 85%-2% over Trump in August, that is now 74%-2%, with the poll showing some support migrating to Johnson and Stein and the undecided number growing from 10% to 14%.

And in the most populous part of Michigan — Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties — where Clinton held a 53%-27% edge over Trump in August, she now holds a 47%-32% margin. Undecideds remained at 11%.

Clinton's support among people from union households fell from 49% to 41%, where Trump’s rose from 29% to 37% — though she appeared to continue to hold a wide margin among union members themselves. The UAW, Teamsters, AFL-CIO and others have endorsed Clinton.

Trump's improvement in the polls in the industrial Midwest is important to his campaign: All along, strategists have suggested he needs to tap into disaffected white workers in the region and take states across the Rust Belt to have a chance. On Wednesday, his arguments against free-trade agreements appeared to be bolstered as Ford announced it would move all of its small-car production to Mexico, though that does not appear to mean job losses in Michigan.

Ford's Mexican operations have been a target of Trump's since he announced his run for the nomination last summer.

The events of the last month appeared to push the already-larger number of those surveyed with an unfavorable view of Clinton even higher, from 51% to 56%, while Trump’s even higher unfavorable number of 63% held steady. But 37% of respondents found him more trustworthy than Clinton, while 30% said she was more trustworthy. Another 30% said neither could be described as “honest and trustworthy.”

“It’s the lesser of two evils,” said Patti Maisonville, 55, a Farmington Hills voter who described herself as bipartisan, but said she is supporting Trump. “I think Hillary is playing above the law, and I don’t like that at all.”

She said she supports Trump and his stance on removing undocumented immigrants from the country.

“I can’t stand another Clinton in the White House,” she added.

There was plenty in the poll, however, to indicate that despite the numbers moving in the wrong direction for her, Clinton could continue to hold, and potentially build on, her lead. More of her core support was certain it would vote for her than his was. And while voters believed him more likely to “keep our military forces strong” and “defeat ISIS,” the group also known as the Islamic State, Clinton had much better marks among those who think she “will address international relations and foreign policy” and “has the right kind of experience and temperament to be commander in chief.”

Trump, of late, has been trying to alter that perception of himself, largely sticking to scripted speeches rather than delivering off-the-cuff — and sometimes offensive — remarks that featured in some of his earlier rallies. He hasn’t stopped entirely though, recently commenting that under his presidency, if an Iranian ship circled an American destroyer it would “be shot out of the water;” a comment that, in the absence of a threat, was denounced as bellicose.

Several national polls have shown a near-even race of late, and there has been a tightening in battleground states, as well, with the Real Clear Politics average of polls showing Trump having pulled even or ahead in some key state such as Ohio and Florida. Clinton remains ahead, however, in other key states such as Pennsylvania, Colorado and Virginia, and an even race in North Carolina underscores the uphill climb Trump still has to win.

“I find him to be very unbalanced,” said Allison Baker, a 50-year-old Grosse Pointe Park voter who considers herself a Democrat and is supporting Clinton. “He says things that are just wacky, and I don’t think he has a presidential demeanor. Hillary Clinton has a lot more experience.” She also said she finds Clinton trustworthy.

Baker said most of her neighbors and friends are Republicans — including her husband — but say they can’t support Trump. Her husband, she said, is considering voting for Clinton at this point.

“Most of them are very torn as to what to do,” she said. “I find it shocking it’s getting closer. I just can’t believe it.”

Contact Todd Spangler at 703-854-8947 or at tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter at @tsspangler.

Correction: A previous version of this story misstated the number of people EPIC-MRA surveyed in this new poll. It surveyed 600. This version of the story is correct.