It’s official in Tampa Bay: Josh Freeman is out and Mike Glennon is in at starting quarterback. But what are the odds that Glennon actually plays well this year? I’m not very optimistic for a couple of reasons.

Vincent Jackson is a star, but he’s dealing with injuries to his ribs. On 30 passes aimed at Jackson this year, Freeman has picked up 265 yards, an average of 8.83 yards per attempt. On 23 targets to Mike Williams, Freeman has averaged 5.5 yards per pass. On his other 38 targets, Freeman’s averaged just 4.7 yards per pass. Right now, there simply aren’t enough weapons in Tampa Bay, as the Bucs desperately could use a receiving tight end and a slot receiver.

But here’s another reason not to expect much from Glennon. Since 1978, there are 30 rookie quarterbacks who are “similar” to Glennon in that they met the following three criteria:

Were not first round picks

Did not start in week 1 (i.e., they didn’t pull a Russell Wilson and win the job with a great training camp — they generally became the starter because the man in front of them was ineffective); and

Started at least four games as a rookie.



As it turns out, only two of the 30 quarterbacks finished above the league average in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. In other words, expectations should be very tempered for Glennon. The average passer was 1.6 Adjusted Net Yards below league average, and the median quarterback was 1.4 ANY below average. Here’s how to read the line of the most successful quarterback of the thirty, Don Majkowski.

In 1987, Majkowski was a 10th round pick, and the 255th overall selection by the Packers. He started 5 games, completed 55 of 127 passes for 875 and 5 touchdowns, and three three interceptions. He also took 10 sacks for 77 yards. The Majik man averaged 5.57 ANY/A while the league average was 5.04 that season, so he has an Relative ANY/A of +0.53.