About a third of Americans say the war in Iraq is going well. Maybe in the end, their steadfast support and optimism will be rewarded, but for now, they’re a decided minority, leaving those on the other side to ask, who are these people and why do they think that way?

Who they are is the easy part. Why they think what they do is considerably more complicated.

Since the war began, New York Times/CBS News polls have shown that people who say the United States’ efforts in Iraq are going well, even in the face of news to the contrary, are solidly supportive of President Bush and overwhelmingly Republican.

Their upbeat view displays itself on other ways, as well. They say things in the United States are generally going well right now, putting them at odds with the views of seven in ten Americans, who say the country has veered off on the wrong track.

But as the war has progressed, the number of Republicans who support the war has declined along with popular support more generally, though to a lesser degree. To a large extent, Mr. Bush’s public relations offensive in recent months has been aimed at stopping the erosion and holding onto those who have been loyal to him all along.