Polls show Arkansas Republican challenger Tom Cotton slightly ahead of the incumbent. 10 critical Senate races

Republicans have their best shot in years at taking back the Senate in 2014, but a lot has to break their way.

They have to pick up just six seats and defend 14, unlike Democrats who have to defend 21 seats.


The mood is right for the GOP: The president is unpopular. The economy is still lagging. And Obamacare has ticked off independents.

But Republicans blew it in 2012, letting the Senate slip away despite favorable circumstances. Democrats, meanwhile, will do their best to hang on, distancing themselves from the president and his health care law.

There will be a slew of stories about sexy races across the country, such as Liz Cheney’s bid in Wyoming. But POLITICO has winnowed down the list to the 10 matchups that are most likely to flip between parties — and decide who will control the Senate.

South Dakota

Republican Mike Rounds, a popular former governor, should handily pick up the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Tim Johnson , a Democrat. Leading national conservative groups have not rallied behind his primary challengers, and he’s raising more money than expected.

( PHOTOS: Senators up for election in 2014)

National Democrats have slowly begun to coalesce around liberal Rick Weiland, a onetime aide to former Majority Leader Tom Daschle, after their top two recruits, former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson, decided to sit it out.

Democrats hope former GOP Sen. Larry Pressler, who lost this seat to Johnson in 1996 and now plans to run as an independent, becomes a spoiler. But he twice endorsed Barack Obama, who lost the state by 18 points.

West Virginia

Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is expected to easily pick up the seat of outgoing Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller. No one has emerged yet to foist a primary on the moderate daughter of a former governor in this state, where the GOP is on the rise and anti-Obama sentiment is high.

Democrats settled on West Virginia Secretary of State Natalie Tennant after more impressive candidates passed, but her awkward attempts to distance herself from Obama and his health care law have raised questions about her chops as a candidate.

( Also on POLITICO: Top governor races to watch in 2014)

Montana

Freshman Republican Rep. Steve Daines was the front-runner, but Obama’s nomination of retiring Democratic Sen. Max Baucus as ambassador to China has boosted Democratic hopes of holding the seat. Lt. Gov. John Walsh, their contender, is almost certain to be appointed by the governor to fill out the last year of Baucus’s term.

Walsh, the former commander of the state’s National Guard, will then be running for the Senate seat as an incumbent. That cuts both ways. It can help fill his campaign coffers and avert a more serious Democratic primary. But then he also may have a voting record to defend and will no longer be able to cast himself as a Washington outsider.

Walsh has been bloodied in recent days by revelations of a 2010 Army inspector general report that found he improperly used his position as the Guard’s adjutant general for private gain, exerting undue pressure on subordinates to join a private association in which he wanted a leadership position. The candidate has denied wrongdoing, noting that he was never disciplined.

Arkansas

Sen. Mark Pryor, who didn’t even have a Republican opponent in 2008, is probably the most vulnerable incumbent running for reelection. The son of a popular former senator , Pryor is bending over backward to distance himself from Obama in a state the president lost by 24 points. But Pryor voted for Obamacare and can be easily linked with the president in commercials.

( Also on POLITICO: For 2014, D.C. players resolve to ...)

Only three sitting Democratic senators have lost in the past decade. One was Arkansas’ Blanche Lincoln — crushed by 21 points in 2010.

Republicans got a dynamite recruit in freshman Rep. Tom Cotton — a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan who went to Harvard Law. Democrats point to polls that show a tied race, but other surveys have shown the relatively unknown Cotton slightly ahead. Democrats hope to define the challenger as ambitious, arrogant and focused more on advancing the House Republican agenda than looking out for Arkansas.

Louisiana

Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu is a survivor. The third-termer, always a top GOP target, has never won with more than 52 percent of the vote.

Because there is no primary in Louisiana, Republican Bill Cassidy must fend off challenges from his right — a retired Air Force colonel and a state representative are both running — through November. If Cassidy can keep Landrieu under 50 percent, then there will be a December runoff.

Landrieu, whose brother is the popular mayor of New Orleans, was one of the more vocal supporters of Obamacare until fairly recently. In the wake of the botched rollout, her first campaign commercial tried to portray her as focused on fixing the law.

Working in her favor: When Baucus becomes ambassador to China, Landrieu will become chairwoman of the powerful Energy and Natural Resources Committee. The state has traditionally valued seniority, and she has allied herself with the oil industry, but will voters prioritize this over her support of the president?

Alaska

Sen. Mark Begich narrowly edged out GOP incumbent Ted Stevens in 2008 just weeks after the longtime Republican incumbent had been convicted on (later overturned) federal corruption charges. Knowing he would face a death match in 2014, the Democratic former mayor of Anchorage has been deliberate about his votes and worked overtime to develop a distinct brand focused on advancing the state’s interests (including, like Landrieu, working with Big Oil).

But he still has a “D” after his name in a state that Obama lost by 14 points, and he voted for Obamacare.

A GOP civil war works to the endangered incumbent’s advantage. The state Republican Party cycled through three chairmen in a year. A three-way primary won’t be resolved until Aug. 19. The battle to take on Begich pits two establishment-friendly candidates, former Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan and current Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, against Joe Miller. Miller is the man who won the 2010 GOP nomination on a wave of tea party energy but lost to Sen. Lisa Murkowski in a write-in campaign.

North Carolina

In 2008, Sen. Kay Hagan knocked off Republican Elizabeth Dole as Obama became the first Democrat to carry the Tar Heel State since 1976. Despite holding the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte and aggressively mobilizing African-American voters, the president lost here in 2012.

Now, with a midterm electorate likely to be even friendlier to Republicans, Hagan has already faced an onslaught of attack ads from conservative outside groups over her support for the Affordable Care Act.

State House Speaker Thom Tillis is viewed in D.C. as the most electable Republican option, but he faces a May primary against a doctor backed by Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and a minister who has the support of a swath of evangelicals. If Tillis makes it through, Hagan will attack the far-reaching conservative agenda he shepherded through the state Legislature in Raleigh.

Hagan put together a strong reelection team early in 2013 and has tried to cultivate a middle-of-the-road persona. Her challenge is to galvanize base voters while winning back the independents who broke with Obama.

Iowa

Sen. Tom Harkin announced in early 2013 that he would retire, and the Democratic field quickly cleared for Rep. Bruce Braley — who enters this year as the front-runner (but by only a couple of points).

A crowded Republican primary in June will go to a convention if no candidate breaks 35 percent. This could empower activists to pick someone either from the evangelical wing of the party or someone closely identified with the pro-Ron Paul libertarians.

The GOP favorites at this stage are seen as state Sen. Joni Ernst, who has the strong backing of the lieutenant governor, and former energy executive Mark Jacobs. There are a handful of other viable contenders, including a former U.S. attorney and a former aide to Sen. Chuck Grassley.

Though Obama carried the state by 6 points, Republicans have a good shot here if they nominate a compelling candidate. Republican Gov. Terry Branstad seems likely to coast to reelection, and his coattails could help.

Georgia

Democrats are playing a lot of defense when it comes to the Senate map this year. Georgia, though, is one state where the party thinks it is positioned to capitalize on intra-GOP squabbling.

The Republican primary in Georgia to fill the seat being vacated by GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss has been a free-for-all. The Democrats, meanwhile, have a strong recruit in nonprofit executive Michelle Nunn, the daughter of moderate former Sen. Sam Nunn.

Nunn has attracted some crossover Republican support, and she will be difficult to link with Obama because she has never before run for office. The red state reality, though, means that she would struggle to beat a mainstream conservative candidate such as Rep. Jack Kingston. Her viability will be all but determined by who emerges from the July 22 Republican primary runoff.

Kentucky

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is nervous about both a primary challenge from businessman Matt Bevin and a general election challenge from Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. The new norm is for leaders to face tough challenges (remember Harry Reid winning in 2010 and Daschle losing in 2004).

Grimes, just 35, will raise a lot of money — but still not nearly as much as McConnell. She is trying to keep the race as much as possible a referendum on McConnell, who polls show is vulnerable. And she lacks the deep paper trail that has allowed McConnell to pulverize past opponents.

But never count the 71-year-old McConnell out: He is one of the most adept campaigners of modern times and Obama is deeply unpopular in the Bluegrass State.