Not, perhaps, the best of results for France and Europe, but by no means the worst either. The far-right National Front candidate, Marine Le Pen, appears not to have topped the first-round poll, as some had hoped and many others had feared, but she does appear to have taken second place, which takes her into the run-off in two weeks’ time. There, she will face Emmanuel Macron, of the movement, En Marche, which he founded as a vehicle for his presidential run. Macron came first with an estimated 23.7 per cent of the vote; Le Pen took an estimated 21.9.

Looking ahead to 7 May, the likelihood is that the conventional left, right and centre join forces to oppose Le Pen, and Macron is swept to the Elysee Palace, without any formal party to back him, at the tender age of 39. Marine Le Pen thus faces a similar fate to the one that befell her father, after he unexpectedly pipped the Socialist, Lionel Jospin, to reach the run-off in 2002. Jacques Chirac, until then an unpopular incumbent, easily clinched a second term thanks to an electorate shocked by the first-round result.

In fact, for all her attempts to modernise and detoxify her party, Marine Le Pen received only a couple of percentage points more than her father before her – which suggests that the far-right constituency in France remains circumscribed, at less than 25 per cent of those who turn out to vote. The pattern in the Netherlands general election earlier this year, where a sharp increase in the far-right vote had also been widely expected, was similar.

Marine Le Pen pledges to expel 'foreign extremists'

In many ways, this result simplifies the second-round choice for French voters. Had the populist left candidate, Jean-Luc Melenchon, made the cut to face Le Pen, moderates of whatever persuasion, would have been faced with a devil’s choice. That might have given Le Pen the best prospects of the presidency, if a majority regarded Melenchon’s brand of leftism as the greater of two evils.

As it is, Le Pen faces the mainstream candidate who represents the starkest alternative to her own positions. Macron campaigned on a passionately pro-Europe platform. He is a centrist, with a bias to the free market, while being progressive on social policy. This is a combination that France’s traditional parties have been unable to embrace, which left them looking hidebound and impossible to reform.

And it made Macron at once the modern and the anti-establishment candidate. Could there be a danger that, with all the endorsements from establishment figures – which had started to crowd in even before his victory – Macron loses this particular selling point? Of course, but there is ‘establishment’ and ‘establishment’, and some ballast from traditionalists could also be an advantage when the opponent is Marine Le Pen.

It should also be noted, perhaps, that whatever the effect of the terrorist attack on the Champs-Elysees just three days before the election, it was not enough to hand Le Pen first place, for all that security had been a feature of her campaign. The conclusion must be that either it had little effect or that it gave her second place, where she might otherwise have come third. What it did not do – to the credit of French voters, who turned out in as great a number as five years ago – was keep voters at home or distort the vote to any significant extent.

The presidency is now Emmanuel Macron’s to lose. If he does win on 7 May (and it still has to be an if, though less of an if than it seemed 24 hours earlier) this could have several unanticipated – and beneficial – effects. It could presage a complete restructuring of French politics and bring the country’s awkwardly old-fashioned politics into the modern age. It would be a change of the sort that has been spoken of here in the UK, following the referendum last year, but will not be achieved before the next election.

After the first-round results became clear this evening, it was the demise of the old left and right political parties, as represented by the outgoing Socialist President, Francois Hollande, and the Republican, Francois Fillon, that became a dominant theme. One of the striking aspects of the early stages of this French election was how many would-be candidates had been in the upper echelons of French politics for two decades or more. A Macron presidency would represent a new start.

What he might do with that power is a different matter. The actual power of a French president can be exaggerated. The constraints on his – so far still his – power are not as institutionalised as they are in the United States, but the National Assembly, which faces re-election in June, curbs his freedom to act. At the same time, the President appoints the government – the prime minister is a far lesser figure than in the UK – and, almost more important, he sets the tone for the nation. The image of a bright, young President of France will revive the country’s image of itself, but also make an immediate mark on the international map.

French Presidential Election Show all 20 1 /20 French Presidential Election French Presidential Election Voters line up to cast their ballots REUTERS French Presidential Election French expats queue along the street outside the Lycee Francais Charles de Gaulle to cast their vote in a polling station inside the school, in the first round of the 2017 French presidential election, in London, Britain April 23, 2017. REUTERS/Luke MacGregor - RTS13JM5 REUTERS French Presidential Election People line up to vote in the first round of 2017 French presidential election at a polling station in Vaulx-en-Velin near Lyon, France, April 23, 2017. REUTERS/Emmanuel Foudrot - RTS13HSP REUTERS French Presidential Election Police patrol polling stations in France REUTERS French Presidential Election Francois Fillon (L), member of the Republicans political party and 2017 French presidential election candidate of the French centre-right, casts his vote in the first round of 2017 French presidential election in Paris, France, April 23, 2017. REUTERS/Christophe Archambault/Pool - RTS13IH0 REUTERS French Presidential Election Benoit Hamon (C), French Socialist party 2017 presidential candidate, is surrounded by photographers as he leaves a polling station after voting in the first round of 2017 French presidential election in Trappes, near Paris, France, April 23, 2017. REUTERS/Vincent Kessler - RTS13I0Y REUTERS French Presidential Election French President Francois Hollande collects voting slips before casting his ballot in the first round of the 2017 French presidential election at a polling station in Tulle, France, on April 23, 2017. REUTERS/Georges Gobet/Pool - RTS13ITO REUTERS French Presidential Election A policeman walks by election posters near a polling station during the first round of 2017 French presidential election in Paris, France, April 23, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann - RTS13I3A REUTERS French Presidential Election Emmanuel Macron and wife Brigitte Trogneux REUTERS French Presidential Election Emmanuel Macron casts his ballot REUTERS French Presidential Election Emmanuel Macron, head of the political movement En Marche !, or Onwards !, and candidate for the 2017 French presidential election, waves hand during in the first round of 2017 French presidential election at a polling station in Le Touquet, northern France, April 23, 2017. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier - RTS13ICH SAA/ French Presidential Election Jean-Luc Melenchon, candidate of the French far-left Parti de Gauche and candidate for the French 2017 presidential election, leaves a polling booth in the first round of 2017 French presidential election at a polling station in Paris, France, April 23, 2017. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe - RTS13IKB REUTERS French Presidential Election Front National leader Marine Le Pen casts her ballot Marine Le Pen (L), French National Front (FN) political party leader and candidate for French 2017 presidential election, casts her ballot in the first round of 2017 French presidential election at a polling station in Henin-Beaumont, northern France, April 23, 2017. At R, Mayor of Henin-Beaumont Steeve Briois. REUTERS/Charles Platiau - RTS13IEI REUTERS French Presidential Election Early ballots are read as results continue to come in Reuters French Presidential Election Macron supporters react as results come in early in the evening AP French Presidential Election Supporters of Front National leader Marine Le Pen cheer as early results come in Reuters French Presidential Election Alamy Live News. J21KYW Paris, France. 23rd April 2017. Marcon supporters wave French and EU flags after the announcement that he is the leader in the exit polls after the polling stations have been closed. Supporters of Emmanuel Macron, the Presidential candidate from the social liberal political party En Marche! celebrate the exit polls, that see him in first place, ahead of Marine Le Pen from the Front National in the first round of the French Presidential election. Credit: Michael Debets/Alamy Live News This is an Alamy Live News image and may not be part of your current Alamy deal . If you are unsure, please contact our sales team to check. Alamy French Presidential Election Front National leader Marine Le Pen takes to the stage to address her supporters as fans cheer Reuters French Presidential Election Emmanuel Macron greets supporters on Sunday night AP French Presidential Election Emmanuel Macron and wife Brigitte Trogneux celebrate the incoming results EPA

For France to have a president who not only projects a modern, progressive, image, but argues as an ardent pro-European, would be excellent news for the European Union, at a time when it faces pressure not only from Brexit, but from a growing scepticism among some of the erstwhile enthusiastic “new” Europeans.