Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, December 26) — The unexpected power shift in Philippine politics after former President and now Pampanga 1st District Rep. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo rose to Speaker and the executive branch's row with the House show President Rodrigo Duterte "has no control of things," a political analyst said.

"These things happen at the time when I thought the President has already consolidated his power. He was able to impeach Chief Justice [Maria Lourdes] Sereno, he was able to harass several government officials. And then, surprisingly, these happen," University of Santo Tomas (UST) Department of Political Science chair Dennis Coronacion told CNN Philippines' The Source on Wednesday.

Highlights

UST Department of Political Science chair Dennis Coronacion says President Duterte "has no control of things" following the ascension of former President and now Pampanga 1st District Rep. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as House Speaker.

The House under Arroyo was previously described by the Palace as being led by "the minority," having treaded a different path in terms of legislation from the Duterte administration.

Senate bets of Duterte's political party are also performing poorly in surveys compared to senatorial candidates backed by Hugpong ng Pagbabago, the regional party of his daughter, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio.

Despite these and rising prices blamed on the Duterte administration's tax reform program, the President continues to enjoy majority approval.

UST political science professor Edmund Tayao says the May 2019 midterm polls would send a "big signal" in the political landscape.

In the first two years of his presidency, Duterte managed to pass key legislation, like his administration's tax reform program and the Bangsamoro Organic Law, through a Congress controlled by a "supermajority" in the House and the Senate.

The lower house also launched probes against his staunchest political opponents, like Senator Leila de Lima. It also pushed for the impeachment of Maria Lourdes Sereno as Supreme Court chief justice before her own colleagues ousted her in an unprecedented grant of a petition declaring her appointment void from the start.

But political winds started blowing in a different direction after Duterte's ally and his party's secretary general, Davao del Norte 1st District Rep. Pantaleon Alvarez, was ousted in a coup hours before the President's third State of the Nation Address in July.

"That's totally unexpected. It's not just change in the House leadership, but it's the change in the overall political equation," UST political science professor Edmund Tayao told CNN Philippines.

The House under Arroyo has treaded a different path in terms of some laws which the Duterte administration wanted passed, including the shift to a cash-based budget and the abolition of the Road Board, which it both junked.

When the House delayed the passage of the 2019 budget bill over its objection to cash-based budgeting, which would require government agencies to spend their funds and implement their projects within one year and an additional three months, then Presidential Spokesperson Harry Roque said things appear to have changed in the House.

"Parang nabaligtad na po. Baka hindi na kinakailangan magkaroon ng Minority Floor Leader dahil mukhang minority na 'yung in power doon sa Kongreso," Roque said.

[The tables have seemingly turned. There might no longer be any need for a minority floor leader because it looks like the minority is in power in Congress.]

House leaders' questions regarding the budget bill and their treatment of Budget Secretary Ben Diokno during Question Hour has also sparked a row between the executive and the lower chamber.

READ: House rude to Diokno? Just 'check and balance' says Suarez

The lower house also flip flopped on the Road Board's abolition, having passed a measure doing away with the government agency in charge of the road users' tax under Alvarez, only for it to be rescinded under Arroyo.

House Majority Leader Rolando Andaya asserted, despite statements from Duterte's close allies and the Palace, that the President wanted the Road Board to stay. But the chief executive himself later contradicted him, saying in a speech that he wants the "milking cow" of corrupt politicians abolished.

This prompted Andaya to say that the House would follow suit, but would opt for a total abolition of the Road Board and not create trust funds separately managed by the Public Works, Transportation, and Environment departments, as provided in the measure it previously passed.

Coronacion said Duterte should already intervene in the mess between the House and the executive.

"Kaya lang, [But] knowing the President, he's not the kind of guy that will go out of his way just to [try to fix it,]" Coronacion said.

Midterm polls to send 'big signal'

Political alliances shifted following the House coup against Alvarez, with many politicians aligning with Hugpong ng Pagbabago (HNP), the regional political party of Duterte's daughter, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio.

As HNP built alliances with regional parties and major national parties like the Nationalist People's Coalition and the Nacionalista Party, ruling party Partido Demokratiko Pilipino Lakas ng Bayan (PDP Laban) was embroiled in a bitter row with a faction claiming legitimacy.

READ: Pimentel group prevails in PDP Laban row

Both parties are supportive of the President, but have a completely different set of senatorial candidates, with bets backed by HNP ranking higher in pre-election surveys compared to most in PDP Laban's Senate slate.

But surveys also show that Senate hopefuls who are aligned with Duterte are ranking higher compared to opposition bets.

The results of the May 2019 midterm polls would send a "big signal" in the political landscape, Tayao said.

"Ang resulta ng [The result of the] midterm election is going to measure exactly how much the public measure the performance of the administration," he said.

Tayao: Effects of TRAIN law should have been managed better | #TheSource https://t.co/msCLmwV0u6 pic.twitter.com/6SFTiCEvS0 — CNN Philippines (@cnnphilippines) December 26, 2018

While Duterte's trust and approval ratings hit record low in September and the satisfaction of Filipinos toward his administration fell in the third quarter this year, a majority of Filipinos still trust, approve and are satisfied with the President and his government.

Tayao said the Duterte administration is "lucky enough" to still have majority approval despite the rising prices of goods, blamed on excise taxes imposed by the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion Law.

The Duterte administration heeded the calls of lawmakers to suspend the additional ₱2 fuel excise tax to be imposed on New Year's day in 2019, but economic managers later withdrew their recommendation for the suspension following a drop in oil prices in the world market.