What a week to be Patrick Brown.

Who’s that? It matters little that he is leader of Ontario’s seemingly resurgent Progressive Conservatives, savouring a byelection triumph in Toronto Thursday.

What matters is that he’s not Kathleen Wynne.

A byelection, it bears repeating, means everything and nothing. It is an axiom of politics that byelections serve as a referendum on the sitting premier — an opportunity to kick the bums in the pants, rather than kick the bums out.

Yes, the Tory victors won bragging rights until the next big vote. And the right to boast of a breakthrough in the Liberal stronghold of Scarborough—Rouge River, part of the seemingly impregnable electoral fortress of Toronto.

No one can deny that it was a good night for the little-known Brown — better, at least, than his bad days earlier in the week. And an even better night for the better-known Doug Ford, who revelled in his role as co-chair of the campaign.

It was also a memorable night for the winning candidate, Raymond Cho, blessed with the high name recognition that comes with being a longtime municipal councillor. But enough of the good news (if Ford’s return can be considered a blessing for Brown).

It was an undeniably bad night for the losing Wynne, who undoubtedly rues the unexpectedly early departure of the sitting Liberal MPP Bas Balkissoon in unexplained circumstances. Not just bad luck, but tough luck.

The premier put out a written statement from Mexico, on another of her whirlwind visits around the world pursuing provincial affairs (shouldn’t someone in her office take away her passport?). Brimming with contrition and consolation, Wynne promised from afar to heed the harsh lessons of defeat by paying more attention to pocketbook issues.

The victory came just in time for Brown, for whom the rest of the week seemed not to be his finest hour. Days before the vote, 13,000 letters went out under his signature, in English and Chinese — presumably targeting an ethnic group deemed fertile ground by the Tories — claiming he’d scrap a controversial update to Ontario’s outdated sex-ed curriculum.

After first stoutly defending the letter, he later had second thoughts — denouncing its message and renouncing his previous public musings on the perils of the sex-ed update. (His earnest denials — no one seems able to explain the letter’s provenance — recalls similar attempts by Wynne to distance herself from her party’s antics when they won the Sudbury byelection last year.)

Brown’s performance, on byelection eve, elicited scorn from his erstwhile supporters among social conservatives. And the conservative media.

“Patrick Brown? He’s just not ready,” editorialized the Toronto Sun. Recapping his antics, the paper concluded that “None of those things say: ‘Premier.’”

Over at the National Post, a columnist planted further seeds of doubt by suggesting a “seedless watermelon” would be a safer stand-in as Tory leader to harvest anti-Wynne votes. Against that bittersweet backdrop, Brown’s byelection victory came just in time to quiet doubters.

It allows him to claim vindication of his stated strategy of ethnic outreach and urban emphasis. Of course, it’s impossible to know whether the Scarborough result in fact results from Brown’s personal appeal, or is merely a replay of the localized Ford effect that gave the Tories a brief beachhead in the byelection of 2013 (when another high-profile councillor allied with the Ford brothers, Doug Holyday, won in Etobicoke only to lose in the general election a year later).

Will Cho be able to retain the seat in the next general election? Will the 80-year-old warhorse even want to run again, two years hence? Hard to say, but a better bet is that Brown has not seen the last of Ford, who makes no secret of his ambition to enter the legislature and one day lead the provincial Tories.

What to make of these twists, turns and returns — the return of Doug Ford, the premier twisting in the wind, the Tory leader twisting himself into a pretzel?

Everything and nothing, for now.

At the mid-term point, the Liberals are down if not necessarily out. In her fourth year as premier, after 13 years of Liberal rule, Wynne is so burdened by baggage that she is blamed for everything from the water to the weather — and it’s starting to stick.

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After one year as PC leader, Brown is well positioned to profit from her decline, but it will only take him so far. By 2018, people will want an answer to the question:

Who is Patrick Brown, and what does he stand for?

Martin Regg Cohn’s political column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. mcohn@thestar.ca , Twitter: @reggcohn

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