Exposure to Greek loans is weighing heavily on minds in the eurozone, in Spain, Slovenia and Malta perhaps more than Germany

As eurozone leaders meet in another effort to broker a deal between Greece and its creditors, those who have lent to the near-bankrupt country are asking if they will ever get their money back.

Greece owes €323bn (£228bn) to a combination of official and private creditors, equivalent to more than 175% of its GDP. Much of that debt mountain was built up by Greece receiving bailout packages, funded in part by its eurozone neighbours.

Germany is far and away the most exposed country within the single currency bloc. However, when adjusting exposure for the sizes of a country’s respective economy, Germany appears better placed than most neighbours to absorb losses.

Eurozone tells Greece not to expect debt relief any time soon Read more

Eurozone governments loaned Greece €52.9bn under the first bailout in 2010 and a further €141.8bn under a bailout in 2012.



Germany’s exposure for the two bailouts is €57.23bn, with Franceowed €42.98bn, Italyowed €37.76bn and Spain €25.1bn, according to calculations by Reuters based on official data. That is in addition to those countries’ contributions to International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans made to Greece.

When taking into account the countries’ exposure via bailouts, via European Central Bank (ECB) loans and via their banking systems, Germany is again well out in front, according to the thinktank Open Europe.

High exposure for Germany and France ...

Countries’ exposure via bailouts, ECB loans to Greece and via their banking systems. Photograph: Open Europe

As for what such exposure would really mean for a country’s economy, it is worth adjusting for relative GDP levels. The news agency Bloomberg calculated liabilities as a share of 2013 nominal GDP levels and found a very different picture emerged. On that ranking, Germany falls to eighth place with an exposure amounting to 2.37% of its economy’s size. France falls to seventh at 2.38% and Italy to fourth. On this measure, Slovenia at 3.06%, Malta at 3.03% and Spain at 2.78% appear to have the most to lose.

... but Slovenia, Spain and Malta could feel more pain

When adjusting exposure for GDP levels, Slovenia, Malta and Spain appear to have the most to lose. Photograph: Bloomberg

Given it is not a member of the European single currency, the UK is, of course, not exposed to Greece via any eurozone rescue loans. It is, however, on the hook because of its contribution to IMF bailouts.

The UK’s share of the IMF loans is about €1.3bn while its banking system exposure to Greece is about €9.85bn, according to Open Europe.

Open Europe (@OpenEurope) #UK has limited exposure to #Greece around €1.3bn via IMF & €9.85bn indirectly via banking sector http://t.co/gkBZYPFIae

Greece failed to make its latest debt repayment of €1.5bn due to the IMF last week. But Open Europe’s co-director, Raoul Ruparel, says there is little reason for the UK to panic. Even if Greece left the eurozone he thinks the UK would get its IMF money back.

He points to reassurances made by the IMF to governments that have lent to Greece via the fund. In a post on its website covering key questions after Greece’s missed repayment, the IMF wrote:



“Will the IMF’s shareholders suffer losses if Greece does not repay? No, the IMF’s shareholders will not suffer losses. Notwithstanding the overdue obligations, member countries’ claims on the IMF are fully secure and the IMF will continue to meet its obligations to members and lenders.”

Private investors hold about €37bn of Greek government bonds.

The Greek government has also issued about €15bn in Treasury bills, usually called T-bills for short, which are shorter-dated government bonds sold to domestic investors, such as Greek banks, and to a smaller extent to foreign investors. Greece has previously managed to convince bondholders to roll over their T-bill holdings, but with the country’s position growing more uncertain by the hour this pattern is much harder to maintain.