First things first. People down in Florida don’t even know yet if Hurricane Dorian will be making a direct hit on their state. The same holds true for people in Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

So, is it way too early for us folks in New Jersey to worry about any potential wind or rain or power outages from this monster Category 4 hurricane?

Weather forecasters say a direct hit on the Garden State appears to be unlikely, but it’s never too early to pay attention to the latest track of any major storms that are swirling in the Atlantic Ocean.

“Whenever we have a hurricane out in the Atlantic, we have to be concerned on the East Coast because you never know where these things will go,” said Joe Miketta, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s regional forecast office in New Jersey.

“As a coastal state, New Jersey always needs to be aware of what’s happening in the Atlantic,” he added. “We always have to keep guard on it until it makes a turn and goes out to sea.”

Hurricane #Dorian maintained an extremely dangerous category-4 intensity overnight packing winds of 140mph! This video shows how the eye formed yesterday afternoon and how it became more and more impressive overnight via GOES-16 images at 1-min intervals! pic.twitter.com/CevbYIadDk — NWS WPC (@NWSWPC) August 31, 2019

UPDATE (Sept. 1): Latest forecast track shows Hurricane Dorian moving dangerously close to N.J., but landfall here is unlikely

Miketta noted Hurricane Dorian doesn’t have to make a direct hit on New Jersey to have an impact on our state. When hurricanes are swirling as far south as Florida, even though that’s more than 1,000 miles away from the Jersey Shore, they can start causing ocean swells to rise.

“The ocean is very big, but all you need is a little ripple for us to start feeling it,” Miketta said.

Swells are one of the major factors influencing dangerous rip currents. The others are wind direction, the strength of onshore winds and whether tides are high or low.

The good news: Even though the latest forecast guidance models are pushing Hurricane Dorian’s track farther north and east than the earlier models had projected, the storm is still several days away from even impacting Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas. If Dorian creeps up the Atlantic coast past the Carolinas and happens to move closer to New Jersey instead of out to sea, we wouldn’t have to worry about any heavy rain or strong winds until late next week.

[Saturday] High pressure builds to the north today resulting in pleasant holiday weekend weather with low humidity and comfortable temperatures. pic.twitter.com/kdLWgHFnJV — NWS New York NY (@NWSNewYorkNY) August 31, 2019

For now, New Jersey is basking in a calm weather pattern, with a good deal of sunshine and warm temperatures expected this weekend. The risk of dangerous rip currents forming along the Jersey Shore on Saturday is low, and it’s expected to remain that way on Sunday.

Labor Day is shaping up to be a mostly cloudy day, with a 60 percent chance of rain showers or thunderstorms in North Jersey and a 30 percent chance of rain in South Jersey — thanks to a warm front that’s approaching from the Great Lakes region.

As next week progresses, forecasters will be paying very close attention to the path of Hurricane Dorian to determine if it could bring any heavy rain or strong winds to the Garden State.

Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.