"Talking tough constantly, increasing the number of offences for which you can be charged, increasing the penalties if you are caught and prosecuted and a relentless policing of bail makes the overall justice system more punitive," Dr Clancey said. "The debate is, is that necessary, particularly at a time we've had declining crime." The number of adults in jail has risen but the number of children in custody is at the "lowest level of my working life", Dr Clancey said. "[A] disturbing aspect is a significant rise in women, particularly Indigenous women in prison," Dr Clancey said. "The concern is that a lot of the women are in there on drug-related and justice-related offences and the impacts of their incarceration on their family are substantial." Redfern Legal Centre head of police accountability and government law Samantha Lee said tougher bail laws, more police powers and the Suspect Targeting Management Plan (STMP), unique to NSW, has led to the "over-policing" of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

“In 2013, the NSW government expanded arrest powers," Ms Lee said. "The change meant arrest is no longer a last resort, but can now be used as the first port of call. "[STMP is] an intelligence-based risk assessment program that disproportionately affects young people under the age of 18, in particular, Aboriginal young people," Ms Lee said. “These policies have led to the over-policing of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and other young people, and an increase in incarceration rates.” Corrective Services officers search for contraband at Parklea prison. Credit:NSW Department of Justice Deputy director of the Australian Institute of Criminology Rick Brown said both women and Indigenous people have increasingly been incarcerated at a faster rate than the general population, but "we're still trying to understand why that might be".

"[There is a] declining tolerance among the general public for crime and that's why we're seeing a tighter use of bail and parole," Dr Brown said. NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research [BOCSAR] deputy director Jackie Fitzgerald said enhanced data availability and evidence gathering techniques such as DNA, forensics and CCTV all contributed to greater law enforcement. "People who are offending now are more likely to be caught than they were 10 years ago, and the proportion of people getting a prison sentence has increased," Ms Fitzgerald said. "It's hard to know how much of that is an increase in the severity of sentencing, and how much is potentially due to the changing profile of offenders, who may have become more serious criminals." Ten years ago less than 10 per cent of thefts reported to police resulted in a prosecution, now it's about 15 per cent, Ms Fitzgerald said.

"So even for the offences that are trending down, the police are catching proportionally more offenders for those crimes. So that sees more people coming to the courts," she said. Loading Law reforms to give magistrates and judges the option not to sentence people to prison began in late September and resulted in less re-offending, BOCSAR research showed. "Supervision and access to therapeutic programs are more likely to be more effective in preventing people from re-offending than custody is," Ms Fitzgerald said. NSW Attorney General Mark Speakman said despite the fall in crime, more people are being arrested due to better and more proactive policing.

"Faster justice will also enable offenders to begin their rehabilitation sooner," Mr Speakman said. "Reforms to parole, which make community safety paramount, are ensuring more offenders access more effective rehabilitation." The state’s prison population is starting to decline, with fewer people in jail on remand and adult prisoners are at a six-month low. But the number of sentenced prisoners rose by 2.1 per cent over the past six months. The state's prison population is expected to reach 13,720 by September next year, BOCSAR reports. NSW Police said their officers are dedicated to putting the community first.