An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts. This post is dedicated to the memory of Dr. Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari who passed away last October.

Executive Summary:

Monthly production peaks are unchanged: All Liquids : the peak is still July 2006 at 85.47 mbpd (revised 0.07 mbpd), the year to date average production in 2007 (9 months) is 84.32 mbpd ( 0.04 mbpd), down 0.25 mbpd from 2006 for the same period. Crude Oil + NGL : the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.09 mbpd (unchanged), the year to date average production for 2007 (9 months) is 80.99 mbpd ( 0.21 mbpd), down 0.35 mbpd from 2006. Crude Oil + Condensate : the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.30 mbpd (unchanged), the year to date average production for 2007 (9 months) is 73.09 mbpd ( 0.14 mbpd), down 0.48 mbpd from 2006. NGPL : the peak date is still February 2007 at 8.01 mbpd ( 0.02 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (9 months) is 7.90 mbpd ( 0.07 mbpd), up 0.13 mbpd from 2006. Decline in crude oil + condensate continues, however, there is a large increase in crude oil production in September by almost 1 mbpd (largest monthly increase since July 2006). Two thirds of this increase are coming from OPEC. September 2007 estimate for crude oil + condensate is 73.50 mbpd compared to 73.47 mbpd one year ago and 73.92 mbpd two years ago. Average forecast : the average forecast for crude oil + NGL based on 13 different projections (Figure above) is showing a kind of production plateau around 81 +/- 4 mbpd with a decline after 2010 +/- 1 year.

mbpd= Million of barrels per day

Gb= Billion of barrels (10 9 )

Tb= Trillion of barrels (10 12 )

NGPL= Natural Gas Plant Liquids

CO= Crude Oil + lease condensate

NGL= Natural Gas Liquids (lease condensate + NGPL)

URR= Ultimate Recoverable Resource

EIA Last Update (September)

Data sources for the production numbers:

Production data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 (Crude oil + NGL).

EIA data (monthly and annual productions up to February 2007) for crude oil and lease condensate (noted CO) on which I added the NGPL production (noted CO+NGL).

The All liquids peak is still July 2006 at 85.47 mbpd, the year to date average production value in 2007 (9 months) is down from 2006 for all the categories except for NGPL. The peak date for Crude Oil + Cond. remains May 2005 at 74.30 mbpd (see Table I below).



Fig 1.- World production (EIA data). Blue lines and pentagrams are indicating monthly maximum. Monthly data for CO from the EIA. Annual data for NGPL and Other Liquids from 1980 to 2001 have been upsampled to get monthly estimates. Click to Enlarge.

Category Sept 2007 Sept 2006 Sept 2005 12 Months1 2007 (9 Months) 2006 (9 Months) 2005 (9 Months) Share Peak Date Peak Value All Liquids 84.93 84.75 84.15 84.45 84.32 84.57 84.71 100.00% 2006-07 85.47 Crude Oil + NGL 81.29 81.26 80.77 81.10 80.99 81.34 81.58 95.72% 2005-05 82.09 Other Liquids 3.64 3.49 3.38 3.34 3.33 3.23 3.13 4.28% 2007-07 3.81 NGPL 7.79 7.79 7.37 7.88 7.90 7.77 7.76 9.18% 2007-02 8.01 Crude Oil + Condensate 73.50 73.47 73.40 73.22 73.09 73.57 73.81 86.54% 2005-05 74.30 Canadian Tar Sands 1.30 1.22 0.98 1.34 1.40 1.07 0.91 1.53% 2007-03 1.57

Business as Usual





Fig 4.- Production forecasts assuming no visible peak. Click to Enlarge.

PeakOilers: Bottom-Up Analysis



Fig 5.- Forecasts by PeakOilers based on bottom-up methodologies. Click to Enlarge.

PeakOilers: Curve Fitting



Fig 6.- Forecasts by PeakOilers using curve fitting methodologies. Click to Enlarge.

Forecast Date 2005 2006 2007 2010 2015 Diff2 Peak Date Peak Value All Liquids Observed (All Liquids) 84.63 84.60 84.39 NA NA 2006-07 85.47 IEA (WEO) 2004 82.06 83.74 85.41 90.40 98.69 -1.02 2030 121.30 IEA (WEO) 2005 84.00 85.85 87.64 92.50 99.11 -3.25 2030 115.40 Koppelaar 2005 84.06 85.78 86.61 89.21 87.98 -2.22 2011 89.58 Lahèrrere 2005 83.59 84.47 85.23 86.96 87.77 -0.83 2014 87.84 EIA (IEO) 2006 82.70 84.50 86.37 91.60 98.30 -1.98 2030 118.00 IEA (WEO) 2006 83.60 85.10 86.62 91.30 99.30 -2.23 2030 116.30 CERA1 2006 87.77 89.52 91.62 97.24 104.54 -7.23 2035 130.00 Lahèrrere 2006 83.59 84.82 85.96 88.93 92.27 -1.57 2018 92.99 Smith 2006 85.19 87.77 90.88 98.94 98.56 -6.49 2012-05 99.83 Crude Oil + NGL Observed (EIA) 81.46 81.33 81.02 NA NA 2005-05 82.09 GBM 2003 76.06 76.27 76.33 75.30 67.79 4.70 2007-05 76.34 Bakhtiari 2003 80.24 80.89 80.89 77.64 69.51 0.13 2006 80.89 ASPO-46 2004 81.00 80.95 80.80 80.00 73.77 0.22 2005 81.00 ASPO-58 2005 81.00 82.03 83.10 85.00 79.18 -2.08 2010 85.00 Staniford (High) 2005 77.45 77.92 78.31 79.01 78.51 2.71 2011-10 79.08 Staniford (Med) 2005 75.81 75.94 75.97 75.52 73.00 5.05 2007-05 75.98 Staniford (Low) 2005 70.46 70.13 69.71 67.92 63.40 11.32 2002-07 70.88 IEA (WEO) 2006 80.10 81.38 82.67 86.50 92.50 -1.65 2030 104.90 Koppelaar 2006 81.76 82.31 83.68 91.00 NA -2.65 2010 91.00 Skrebowski 2006 80.95 81.47 82.64 87.37 NA -1.62 2010 87.97 Smith 2006 80.53 82.81 85.45 91.95 88.60 -4.43 2011-02 92.31 Loglets 2006 81.12 82.14 83.02 84.65 83.26 -1.99 2012-01 84.80 ASPO-76 2006 77.92 79.00 81.35 90.00 85.00 -0.33 2010 90.00 Robelius Low 2006 81.45 82.19 82.50 81.84 72.26 -1.47 2007 82.50 Robelius High 2006 81.45 84.19 86.67 93.40 92.40 -5.65 2012 94.54 Shock Model 2006 80.76 80.43 80.01 78.27 73.74 1.01 2003 81.17 Crude Oil + Lease Condensate Observed (EIA) 73.81 73.54 73.14 NA NA 2005-05 74.30 ASPO-46 2004 72.80 72.56 72.25 71.00 63.55 0.88 2005 72.80 Deffeyes 2004 69.94 69.93 69.84 69.02 65.99 3.30 2005-12 69.95 ASPO-58 2005 73.00 73.80 74.65 76.00 69.50 -1.51 2010 76.00 IEA (WEO) 2006 70.80 71.78 72.77 75.70 80.30 0.37 2030 89.10 CERA1 2006 76.49 76.89 78.60 82.29 83.83 -5.47 2038 97.58 ASPO-76 2006 71.11 72.10 73.66 78.00 72.00 -0.53 2010 78.00 HSM 2007 NA 73.56 73.53 72.82 69.53 -0.39 2006 73.56 Ace 2007 NA 73.48 73.03 66.96 58.47 0.11 2006-01 73.55 Table II. Summary of all the forecasts (figures are in mbpd) as well as the last EIA estimates.1Productive capacities. 2Difference between the observed production for 2007 and the predicted value (in mbpd), the value in bold indicates the best forecast (i.e. the oldest with the lowest difference.

The following results are based on a linear or non-linear fit of a parametric curve (most often a Logistic curve) directly on the observed production profile:





Next update probably in March.

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Oilwatch - December 2007

Khebab@theoildrum.com