The race discrimination commissioner, Tim Soutphommasane, says Pauline Hanson is stoking division and appealing to xenophobia as new polling suggests 49% of Australians support One Nation’s call for a ban on Muslim immigration.

Following Hanson’s first speech in the Senate last week, in which she declared that Australia was in danger of being “swamped” by Muslims and reiterated her call for a ban on Muslim immigration, Soutphommasane was expected to use the opportunity of a forum at the Australian National University on Wednesday to urge Australians to resist politicians’ attempts to divide the community according to race or religion.

The race discrimination commissioner argues that racism at its core is about an abuse of power, and appeals to Australians not be complacent about racial intolerance being some kind of “initiation rite” for new arrivals.

“Some would say that just as the Irish, Italians, Greeks and Asians copped ugliness, so too will Muslims. That immigrants must show grit and forbearance, become part of the mainstream, and then be free to have a go at the next lot who arrive,” Soutphommasane’s speech notes say.

“While we may never eradicate racism and bigotry, it isn’t good enough to say its targets must grin and bear it, or that there’s nothing we can do. Doing so amounts to normalising racism, to suggesting that it should be tolerated.”

Soutphommasane’s strong public intervention comes as field work undertaken by Essential indicates the country splits down the middle when presented with a question about banning Muslim immigration.

Asked whether they would support or oppose one of Pauline Hanson’s most provocative propositions – a ban on Muslim immigration – 49% of those polled in the Essential survey agreed with the ban, while 40% opposed the idea.

Support for banning Muslim immigration is highest among Coalition voters at 60% and non-major party voters at 58% – but the ban also has substantial support from progressive voters.

According to the survey 40% of people identifying themselves as Labor voters support a ban on Muslim immigration, and there is 34% support among Green voters.

The main reason people nominate for not supporting further Muslim immigration is a view that the Islamic community doesn’t integrate into Australian society, with 41% of the sample articulating that view.

People also express concern about the threat of terrorism (27%), and agree with the proposition “they do not share our values” (22%).

Polling suggests Australians are also anxious about their economic prospects and their job security.

Separate polling from Essential indcates a sizeable proportion of Australians believe free trade agreements are a threat to their job security – an issue that ranks ahead of practical workplace-level developments like contracting out, technological change and inflated wages.

The recent federal election boosted the political stocks of two overtly protectionist political movements – the Nick Xenophon Team, a micro-party with positive attitudes to multiculturalism, and One Nation, a political party that contends multiculturalism has been a disaster.

Essential first unearthed the findings about Muslim immigration in August, but ran a second check to validate the numbers. “These results were surprising to us and we ran a second check to validate them – on both cycles the numbers were the same,” said Peter Lewis, the director of Essential Media Communications.

Lewis said he wanted to take a couple of weeks to think through the most responsible way to release the figures and “what they mean, especially in the context of Pauline Hanson’s maiden speech.”

In a column published by Guardian Australia on Wednesday Lewis says: “Here’s the challenge to everyone concerned or affronted by these findings – how do you tell half the population that they are wrong?”

“The answer is you don’t. The one thing I’ve learned in more than 20 years around politics is that convincing people they are wrong is a zero-sum game,” Lewis says.

He says the challenge is to work with people to understand what is driving their views, and “work with them from the source to win their trust.”

In his speech to be delivered at the ANU on Wednesday, Soutphommasane acknowledges the broader context of Hanson’s resurgence.

He poses two significant questions: he asks should Australians simply accept that a significant section of the community may be holding intolerant views? And should the response be “killing any racial ugliness with kindness, empathy and understanding”?

Soutphommasane rejects the idea that intolerance is ubiquitous, pointing out that 95% of Australian voters did not vote for One Nation in 2016. He says evidence suggests the vast majority of Australians are comfortable with multiculturalism.

But he says the nation must avoid the complacency of believing that there may be nothing more Australian than intolerance – “to believe that copping racism is just part of some initiation rite for any immigrant group.”

On the empathy question, the race discrimination commissioner says it should be extended only so far. “It’s one thing to discuss matters, including on race and religion, in a civil and respectful manner. Dialogue is always welcome. No reasonable person would disagree.

“Where a reasonable person might disagree is where the demand goes further – where we should call on those vulnerable to discrimination to suck it up and be nice to those dishing them out,” he says.

“That demand doesn’t make sense when such kindness and generosity may not be reciprocated. Too often, people can forget that the burden of racial tolerance isn’t something that weighs upon everyone evenly.”

Soutphommasane will say several ethnic and religious communities have expressed fears about a surge in prejudice and intolerance since the resolution of the federal election.

“I understand their fears. I remember the effect on our race relations when, twenty years ago, Ms Hanson said that Australia was being swamped by Asians – I remember what it felt like to be told that you and your family weren’t welcome,” his speech notes say.

“Today, it is Muslim Australians who may feel unwelcome. This is the cost of the politics of division.”

“When politicians target particular groups with their rhetoric, it hurts our communities. It can affect what children experience in the schoolyard, and what their parents experience in their workplace.”

He says politicians need to set a higher standard with their public interventions.

“Our society is diminished by inflammatory rhetoric or appeals to xenophobia. We expect our political representatives to set the tone for our society, not to be targeting particular groups with hostility.

“We should be forthright in speaking out against political appeals to fear. And we should resist political attempts to divide Australians according to race or religion.”