So far a long-awaited tightening of the contest has failed to happen, with Labor's primary vote climbing two percentage points to 39 per cent, and the Greens on 16 per cent. In two-party preferred terms Labor continues to lead the Coalition 56 per cent to 44 per cent, when preferences are allocated by respondents. Based on preference flows at the November 2010 election, the two-party preferred result is tighter, with Labor leading 53 per cent to 47 per cent. The poll was mostly taken before the Liberal campaign launch last Sunday, at which Premier Denis Napthine promised $3.9 billion for trains and trams over 10 years and $100 yearly rebates for parents of four-year-old children in kinder. It pre-dates an advertising blitz targeting Labor over financial management and union links which the cashed-up Liberal campaign hopes will stunt Labor's progress.

Coalition sources claim momentum has this week started to flow the government's way, although whether it will be enough in the remaining 15 days of the campaign is unclear. Labor too, is expected to ramp up a negative advertising campaign highlighting spending cuts. The poll suggests Daniel Andrews is also gaining popularity. The Opposition Leader is now trailing Dr Napthine as preferred premier 39 per cent to 42 per cent, an improvement from the previous Fairfax Ipsos poll in late October, when Mr Andrews was trailing 36 per cent to 45 per cent. For the first since early 2013, Mr Andrews' net approval rating has also edged into positive territory, with 40 per cent approval and 37 per cent disapproval. But the poll also raises questions about Labor's plan to scrap the $16.8 billion East West Link if it wins, with 59 per cent of voters supporting the road and 29 per cent against it. But the favourable result for the project does not seem to be translating into votes for the Coalition, with voters apparently more concerned about education and health. In a blow to the Government, 44 per cent said the education system had deteriorated, compared with 34 per cent who said it had stayed the same and only 12 per cent who said it had improved.

More than one-third of voters, 36 per cent, said the health system had deteriorated, compared with 42 per cent who said it had stayed the same and 15 per cent who said it had improved. The Coalition also hopes perceptions about its credentials as a superior economic manager will help win over undecided voters. With the unemployment rate at the highest level since 2001, 44 per cent of voters said the economy had deteriorated, 20 per cent said it had improved and 33 per cent said it had stayed the same. Prime Minister Tony Abbott also continues to hamper the Napthine government's re-election bid. Almost one-quarter of voters, or 23 per cent, said they are less likely to vote for the state government because of the performance of the federal government. Only 7 per cent of voters say they are more likely to vote for the state Coalition because of the Abbott government's performance, while two-thirds, 67 per cent, say it will make no difference. Although voters are predominantly focused on state issues such as health, education and economic management, the finding suggests anger about the cuts inflicted in the May federal budget and subsequent stumbles from Canberra has not made the situation any easier for Premier Denis Napthine.

The poll follows confirmation by Dr Napthine on Thursday that the Greens will be preference last by the Liberal Party, behind the hard-right party Rise Up Australia. "If Daniel Andrews and Labor fail the simple test of putting the Greens last on how-to-vote cards, then all Victorians will know if they vote for Labor they are voting for a Labor-Greens alliance," he said. With Richard Willingham