Ej_ Profile Blog Joined January 2013 47288 Posts #2 Also this confirms INnoVation wins only when Terran is the strongest race. "Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya

ZigguratOfUr Profile Blog Joined April 2012 Iraq 16047 Posts #3 Cool statistics. There weren't enough games for statistically significant per map analysis though imo, especially when you consider the bias introduced by players vetoing maps. Maps I made recently: Nevermore: https://i.imgur.com/NiqR0Rj.jpg | Rubaiyat: https://i.imgur.com/XD3E3vd.jpg | Grand Canal: https://i.imgur.com/kNgyOCo.jpg

DieuCure Profile Joined January 2017 France 3701 Posts #4 On October 17 2017 00:55 Ej_ wrote:

Also this confirms INnoVation wins only when Terran is the strongest race.



Yes , he is abusing the huge imba, unlike Mvp Yes , he is abusing the huge imba, unlike Mvp

bduddy Profile Joined May 2012 United States 1322 Posts #5



9-11

11-9

13-7

4-16

11-9

12-8

16-4

8-12

15-5

12-8

11-9

10-10



Imagine these are map winrates. Do they look balanced to you?! Well... they are. Drawing conclusions based on a sample size like this, especially at a ridiculously low threshold of 60%, is absurd and pointless. There is simply no evidence that this is down to anything but random chance (which doesn't mean that they are all perfectly balanced, either - it just means nothing) I used http://appincredible.com/online/coin-flipper/ to flip 20 coins a bunch of times.9-1111-913-74-1611-912-816-48-1215-512-811-910-10Imagine these are map winrates. Do they look balanced to you?! Well... they are. Drawing conclusions based on a sample size like this, especially at a ridiculously low threshold of 60%, is absurd and pointless. There is simply no evidence that this is down to anything but random chance (which doesn't mean that they are all perfectly balanced, either - it just means nothing) >Liquid'Nazgul: Of course you are completely right

Executer08 Profile Joined June 2015 Germany 153 Posts #6 Fun fact: 4 of the TvP losses on Abyssal is aLive picking the map himself and losing.



lol, frigging aLive scewing the statistics on purpose kek.



lol, frigging aLive scewing the statistics on purpose kek. On October 17 2017 04:00 ZigguratOfUr wrote:

Cool statistics. There weren't enough games for statistically significant per map analysis though imo, especially when you consider the bias introduced by players vetoing maps.



for more games you would have to look further into the past and then you have to also consider meta changes and stuff like that in the analysis. you arent gonna get as much data as you'd need for statistical significance because you'd have too many other factors with influence on the result. this is just a look at the "best" data we have available in prospect of blizzcon for more games you would have to look further into the past and then you have to also consider meta changes and stuff like that in the analysis. you arent gonna get as much data as you'd need for statistical significance because you'd have too many other factors with influence on the result. this is just a look at the "best" data we have available in prospect of blizzcon "You have the image of being a robotic, stoic player among foreign fans. What do you think about that?" - "I don’t think it’s incorrect." || letodSWAG

Vedeynevin Profile Joined February 2015 United States 431 Posts #7 Very interesting. Btw, you have the ascension to aiur zvt stat listed as 7-11 (28.9%) when 7/11= 63.6

Ej_ Profile Blog Joined January 2013 47288 Posts Last Edited: 2017-10-18 20:51:48 #8 On October 18 2017 19:16 bduddy wrote:

I used



9-11

11-9

13-7

4-16

11-9

12-8

16-4

8-12

15-5

12-8

11-9

10-10



Imagine these are map winrates. Do they look balanced to you?! Well... they are. Drawing conclusions based on a sample size like this, especially at a ridiculously low threshold of 60%, is absurd and pointless. There is simply no evidence that this is down to anything but random chance (which doesn't mean that they are all perfectly balanced, either - it just means nothing) I used http://appincredible.com/online/coin-flipper/ to flip 20 coins a bunch of times.9-1111-913-74-1611-912-816-48-1215-512-811-910-10Imagine these are map winrates. Do they look balanced to you?! Well... they are. Drawing conclusions based on a sample size like this, especially at a ridiculously low threshold of 60%, is absurd and pointless. There is simply no evidence that this is down to anything but random chance (which doesn't mean that they are all perfectly balanced, either - it just means nothing)

This is obviously all correct, but it's also the best we can do. And it does allow you to track performance of given race on given map. In fact, this entire blog was prompted by Zerg constantly losing to Protoss on Newkirk and my interest in the winrates on all maps .

I'd say that Abyssal and Ascension winrates reflect the balance on the maps quite accurately (as they should do, with the most games played). The rest is just a "why not?" and more of a fun fact than anything.

On October 18 2017 19:24 Executer08 wrote:

Show nested quote +

On October 17 2017 04:00 ZigguratOfUr wrote:

Cool statistics. There weren't enough games for statistically significant per map analysis though imo, especially when you consider the bias introduced by players vetoing maps.



for more games you would have to look further into the past and then you have to also consider meta changes and stuff like that in the analysis. you arent gonna get as much data as you'd need for statistical significance because you'd have too many other factors with influence on the result. this is just a look at the "best" data we have available in prospect of blizzcon for more games you would have to look further into the past and then you have to also consider meta changes and stuff like that in the analysis. you arent gonna get as much data as you'd need for statistical significance because you'd have too many other factors with influence on the result. this is just a look at the "best" data we have available in prospect of blizzcon

That I agree 100% with.

This is obviously all correct, but it's also the best we can do. And it does allow you to track performance of given race on given map. In fact, this entire blog was prompted by Zerg constantly losing to Protoss on Newkirk and my interest in the winrates on all mapsI'd say that Abyssal and Ascension winrates reflect the balance on the maps quite accurately (as they should do, with the most games played). The rest is just a "why not?" and more of a fun fact than anything.That I agree 100% with. On October 18 2017 21:08 Vedeynevin wrote:

Very interesting. Btw, you have the ascension to aiur zvt stat listed as 7-11 (28.9%) when 7/11= 63.6

It's 7 wins to 11 losses. 7/18=38.9% You actually found a typo tho :D It's 7 wins to 11 losses. 7/18=38.9% You actually found a typo tho :D "Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya

Ej_ Profile Blog Joined January 2013 47288 Posts #9



Here's some more statistics for everyone: SERIES WINRATE IN STARLEAGUES



2017 GSL Season 3

Ro32

v 3-5 || v 8-3 || v 8-5

Ro16

v 2-0 || v 3-2 || v 0-2

Playoffs

v 0-2 || v 0-1 || v 1-1

TOTAL

v 5-7 || v 11-6 || v 9-8



3-5 ||8-3 ||8-52-0 ||3-2 ||0-20-2 ||0-1 ||1-15-7 ||11-6 ||9-8 2017 SSL Season 3

Premier

v 5-10 || v 8-3 || v 5-4

Challenge phase 1

v 4-2 || v 0-6 || v 3-1

Challenge phase 2

v 0-0 || v 0-0 || v 4-4

TOTAL

v 9-12 || v 8-9 || v 12-9







STARLEAGUE TOTAL



v 14-19 (42,4%)

v 19-15 (55,9%)

v 21-17 (55,3%)

14-19 (42,4%)19-15 (55,9%)21-17 (55,3%)





Interestingly enough, while game winrates were virtually even, Protoss outperformed Terran and Zerg. That lies in line with Terranless playoffs of SSL and no Zerg starleague champion this season.



5-10 ||8-3 ||5-44-2 ||0-6 ||3-10-0 ||0-0 ||4-49-12 ||8-9 ||12-9Interestingly enough, while game winrates were virtually even, Protoss outperformed Terran and Zerg. That lies in line with Terranless playoffs of SSL and no Zerg starleague champion this season. "Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya

Edowyth Profile Joined October 2010 United States 183 Posts Last Edited: 2017-10-18 15:59:47 #10 On October 19 2017 00:27 Ej_ wrote:

This is obviously all correct, but it's also the best we can do.



No, it's not. You just have to consider games other than Korean pro-league games to get a larger sample size.



As much hype as people like to build around Koreans, they're supported by players who aren't playing in those leagues and there is *tons* of data available if you're willing to remove the requirement that the players be the top ~32 in the world.



While people will say "balance can only be determined at the top", I'd argue that the top players are so good that they will make nearly anything look balanced by abusing the best possible chances they have to win. Pulling the boys in HotS made TvP actually balanced but no one, at any level, really enjoyed the game-play during that time.



There are many similar things happening today, but no changes are made because the focus is so tightly upon the Korean scene. Mass oracle should have been nerfed weeks, if not months ago. Protoss should have received something versus hydra / bane / ling months ago.



Ultimately, if the game isn't fun and engaging for all players the pro scene will continue to shrink.



The data we should be considering is ladder, or all tournament, data. Get a significant sample-size first, that represents an actually significant portion of the games played daily, then we can talk about the state of the game. Here's one example of such a sample: No, it's not. You just have to consider games other than Korean pro-league games to get a larger sample size.As much hype as people like to build around Koreans, they're supported by players who aren't playing in those leagues and there is *tons* of data available if you're willing to remove the requirement that the players be the top ~32 in the world.While people will say "balance can only be determined at the top", I'd argue that the top players arethat they will make nearly anything look balanced by abusing the best possible chances they have to win. Pulling the boys in HotS made TvPbut no one, at any level, really enjoyed the game-play during that time.There are many similar things happening today, but no changes are made because the focus is so tightly upon the Korean scene. Mass oracle should have been nerfed weeks, if not months ago. Protoss should have receivedversus hydra / bane / ling months ago.Ultimately, if the game isn'tfor all players the pro scene will continue to shrink.Get a significant sample-size first, that represents an actually significant portion of the games played daily, then we can talk about the state of the game. Here's one example of such a sample: http://aligulac.com/misc/balance/ . Once the next design patch hits and the Protoss win-rates for the entire expansion (other than at the highest Korean level) remain in the dirt across the board, I wonder whether Blizzard will try to change their strategy for Protoss (which is their greatest failing of LotV by these numbers) or if we'll see more status-quo-ante -- as long as the Korean numbers look "okay" like this article posts, nothing changes. "Q. How do I check a valid [e-]mail address? A. You can't, at least, not in real time. Bummer, eh?" /r/programming

Of course, you could just send them a validation email.

Ej_ Profile Blog Joined January 2013 47288 Posts #11 The reason I blogged this is exactly, because Aligulac rates good players and foreigners the same "Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya

Edowyth Profile Joined October 2010 United States 183 Posts Last Edited: 2017-10-18 18:12:31 #12 Well, so long as you realize that your 'evidence' is useless simply because there isn't enough of it, I guess it's fine to point out whatever coincidences you enjoy seeing. Calling it a balance report, though, is more than a little stretched. "Q. How do I check a valid [e-]mail address? A. You can't, at least, not in real time. Bummer, eh?" /r/programming

Of course, you could just send them a validation email.

Ej_ Profile Blog Joined January 2013 47288 Posts #13 :DDDD "Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya