Additional aid could also draw some criticism from Democrats in Congress who have questioned the fairness of how the funding is distributed geographically and among commodity sectors.

The Agriculture Department has already paid farmers more than $23 billion to offset their financial losses under Trump’s trade war since 2018, on top of other tariff relief measures like commodity purchases and marketing assistance.

Secretary Sonny Perdue has repeatedly said farmers should not expect another round of aid for 2020, now that the U.S. and China have reached a deal to boost American farm exports.

“I would not anticipate it,” Perdue said Thursday at USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Va. Farmers have "got to farm for the market and what it’s telling them and what their capabilities are from a production perspective.”

Trump's latest comments caught the department off-guard.

“The president’s tweet was a surprise to us,” Ted McKinney, USDA undersecretary for trade and foreign agricultural affairs, said Friday at the conference. When asked about the USDA's opinion on more payouts to farmers, McKinney noted that the president "will make that decision, and we’ll go with that decision."

“Right now though, we are [going] full out to make and take advantage of the agreements we already have,” McKinney added, noting that both the department and the farmers would prefer to see “trade not aid.”

“We’re going to press very hard to let that be our first and primary focus, and then things will fall in place as the president decides,” McKinney said.

The department on Thursday projected that farm exports to China would total $14 billion this year, up from $10 billion in fiscal 2019. That estimate was far short of the $40 billion in U.S. farm goods that Beijing agreed to purchase under the phase one trade deal that took effect last week. Perdue said the planned increase in Chinese purchases was not fully factored into USDA’s export forecast.

The USDA aid program was largely responsible for keeping many farmers afloat in 2019. Producers faced a steep drop in exports and commodity prices in the thick of Trump’s tariff fight with Beijing, while other headwinds like historic flooding and rising debt levels added even more financial strain on the industry. In 2019, farm income rose but only because of the extensive trade aid.

Just this month, however, the department predicted that farm income would grow in 2020 despite the latest projections that federal payments to farmers would fall to typical levels. On Thursday, USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson predicted a “return to normal trade” this year, along with other “more hopeful signs” for the farm economy after the recent downturn.

It’s still unclear how much Trump’s limited trade deal with China and the newly signed USMCA pact will add to the bottom lines of American farmers and ranchers. Trade analysts have questioned whether China’s pledge to purchase more than $40 billion in U.S. farm goods in 2020 and 2021 each is feasible, given supply and demand constraints and global trading rules.

The ongoing coronavirus outbreak has also put a dent in China’s economic activity, which could further delay Beijing’s ability to follow through on its import commitments under the deal.

Doug Palmer and Catherine Boudreau contributed to this report.

