Richard Charnin

Oct. 23, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud

Matrix of Deceit

Proving Election Fraud

The fact that Party-ID demographic in five current polls (see realclearpolitics.com) vary greatly is a cause for concern. What is the correct mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents? Theoretically, the National polls should have nearly identical Party-ID weightings. But they don’t, so which ones are to believed?

This summary analysis compares the poll shares to those obtained using the Gallup party affiliation survey weights (currently 40% Independents, 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans).

Clinton leads the average of five pre-election polls by 43.0-40.7%. Applying the 2016 Election Model, this translates to a 302-236 average Electoral Vote win.

Using the Gallup survey weights for each poll (using the same poll shares), Trump leads by 41.8-39.3%. He wins the average Electoral Vote by 329-209.

In the five polls, the average Party-ID is 40.8 Dem- 33.6 Rep- 25.6 Ind. Trump leads the Independents in each poll by an average of 40-28%.

IBD/TIPP is the only poll in which Independents are the largest group (38%) and closely approximates the Gallup affiliation survey..

View the 2016 Election Model (with links to the five polls and the Gallup survey)

Poll share Electoral Vote Poll Party-ID Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Ipsos 42.1 39.6 298 240 Rasmussen 40.9 42.9 211 327 IBD/TIPP 39.5 42.2 202 336 Quinnipiac 47.6 39.7 444 94 Fox News 45 39 354 184 Average 43.02 40.68 301.8 236.2 Gallup affiliation: Poll share Electoral Vote 40Ind;32Dem;28Rep Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Ipsos 36.4 37.7 232 306 Rasmussen 36.8 47.4 81 457 IBD/TIPP 36.5 45.4 42 496 Quinnipiac 45.4 40.5 354 184 Fox News 41.3 37.9 335 203 Average 39.28 41.78 208.8 329.2

Party ID Mix Ind Dem Rep Ipsos 13 46 41 Rasmussen 32 40 28 IBD/TIPP 38 35 27 Quinnipiac 26 40 34 Fox News 19 43 38 Average 25.6 40.8 33.6 Independent shares Poll Clinton Trump Ipsos 23 34 Rasmussen 22 47 IBD/TIPP 28 44 Quinnipiac 38 42 Fox News 30 35 Average 28.2 40.4