Bureau of meteorology forecasts a high of 45C in Adelaide with the hot weather to be worse this week than last

This article is more than 1 year old

This article is more than 1 year old

Adelaide’s 80-year-old heat record could topple this week, while in Tasmania emergency warnings were issued for six areas as almost 50 fires continued to burn across the state.

On Thursday, the bureau of meteorology is forecasting a high of 45C in Adelaide, close to its 46.1C record.

Severe weather warnings are also in place for extreme temperatures and high fire danger in Victoria and Tasmania on Friday, while in Western Australia a cyclone could develop off the north coast on Thursday.

The BoM forecaster John Nairn said: “When we go to a number like that we have to be cognisant that there’s two records that we’ve got for Adelaide,” he said.

“One on East Terrace (Kent Town) in 2009 where we got to 45.7 and the other on West Terrace in 1939 where we reached 46.1. Those numbers are not far from being reached on Thursday.”

The Bom is forecasting temperatures into the 40sC for much of the state on Thursday, along with strong winds and severe fire danger.

SA Health’s chief medical officer, Paddy Phillips, said the heatwave will be worse than last week’s, when some parts of the state recorded four days above 40C.

“In last week’s heatwave we saw 69 people present to hospitals across the state with heat-related conditions and 31 of those were admitted,” he said.

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He urged the public to drink plenty of water, avoid exercise or physical activity, use air conditioners and fans and look after young children and frail relatives or neighbours.

A cool change should reach Adelaide by Friday, when a high of 33C is forecast.

Meanwhile in Tasmania, lives and properties remained at risk as weather conditions continued to worsen, authorities warned.

The Tasmania Fire Service early on Wednesday morning warned residents of Miena, Barren Tier, Tods Corner, Penstock Lagoon, Liawenee and Shannon that they may be in danger and needed to take action immediately.

A property had already been lost near Miena, the TFS confirmed on Tuesday night.

Almost 50 fires were burning across the state and though conditions had eased, more winds and high temperatures were expected by the end of the week.

Dean Narramore, a meteorologist with the Bom, said that for much of southeast Australia “Friday is the bad day”.

“It’s going to be a hot night for much of southeast Australia on Thursday night,” he said.

“Friday will be a very bad day for Tasmania and Victoria for both heat and fire danger.

“We could see some very hot and windy conditions.”

Quick guide Heatwaves and climate change in Australia Show Hide According to the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO, Australia has warmed by 1C since 1910, and temperatures will increase in the future. So how will climate change affect future heatwaves in Australia? The CSIRO and BoM have compiled different models for predicting the outcome of climate change in Australia to produce a guide to how different regions will likely be affected. They found that every part of Australia will continue to experience increases in average temperature, and will have a higher frequency of hot days.

The duration of hot spells will increase in every region. In many areas in the northern half of Australia, the average number of days above 35C could increase by two to three times.

Late in the century, towns such as Darwin, Alice Springs and Broome may experience days with temperatures above 35C for about a third of the year. These higher temperatures will also result in higher evaporation, which will continue to make drought conditions worse.

Temperatures into the 40sC will be widespread in Victoria, with northern parts of the state expected to reach the mid-40s and the low-40s in the south. Melbourne has a forecast of 41C on Friday.

In Tasmania, residents in the line of fire were being told to be on alert for embers, smoke and ash and dozens of people had already moved to evacuation centres.

A major fire was still burning near Gell River, northwest of Hobart, scorching more than 20,000 hectares of wilderness since it started on 28 December with another blaze near Lake Fergus in the state’s centre.

The TFS deputy chief officer, Bruce Byatt, said fire crews would focus on a combination of containment and being ready to hit new fires fast.

“It’s really about us setting triggers and when the triggers are reached, shifting our response from an offensive to a more defensive or ready to roll method of attack,” he said.

Specialist fire personnel from interstate and New Zealand are helping tackle the scores of blazes.

Meanwhile, in Western Australia there was a severe weather warning for damaging winds, abnormally high tides and damaging surf south of Perth on Wednesday.

A cyclone track map was also in place for the north of the state off the Kimberley coast.

“It’s a tropical low at the moment but we could see a cyclone develop sometime tomorrow off the Kimberley coast,” Narramore said.

In the ACT, which last week broke its record for the number of days above 40C, temperatures in the high 30s are forecast again for the end of the week.

In NSW, there will be temperatures in the mid to high 40sC at the end of the week, particularly on Friday.