Democrat Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jay Webber 48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters using Monmouth’s standard midterm model. | Justin Zaremba/AP Photo Poll: Little has changed since June in close Sherrill-Webber race

The 11th District congressional race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jay Webber is close, according to a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday, with Sherrill maintaining a small lead within the poll’s margin of error.

The poll also shows that President Trump’s tweet endorsing Webber has had little effect on the race.


Sherrill leads Webber 48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters using Monmouth’s standard midterm model. Her lead expands to 50 percent to 43 percent if there’s a Democratic surge, and decreases to 3 points — 48 percent to 45 percent — in a low turnout scenario.

The poll’s margin of error for the difference between the candidates is plus or minus 7.3 points. The results are barely changed from a Monmouth poll on the race from June.

“The basic contours of this race have not changed. Even though Republicans have the edge in party affiliation, many are not happy with the president or key GOP initiatives such as the tax reform plan,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray.

The district is one of the most competitive in New Jersey. Its 24-year GOP incumbent, Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-N.J.), announced his retirement early this year amid the prospect of fighting his first ever competitive general election.

Although the district’s voters are split on President Donald Trump’s job performance, with 48 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving, he’s a greater motivator for people who oppose him than support him, the poll indicates. Eighty-four percent of Trump opponents say the president is an important factor in their vote, while 77 percent of Trump supporters say the same.

Only 31 percent of voters are aware Trump tweeted in support of Webber. While 56 percent said it would not influence their votes, 28 percent said it would make them less likely to vote for Webber while 15 percent said it would make them more likely to vote for him.

And while Webber has run on his support for the new tax law signed by the president, the district is split on the issue, with 43 percent approving of it and 46 percent disapproving.

The poll of 356 likely voters was conducted from October 3 to October 7.

See full polling results here.