The 2018 midterms, now only eight months away, are shaping up to be a massive battleground, with high-profile elections of governors, senators, and congressmen from all fifty states. All eyes are on the House of Representatives, however, where all 435 seats are up for reelection come November. Democrats, eager to win back a branch of government, need to gain twenty-four seats more than 2016 to gain a majority in the House.

There are many high-profile states that could determine the fate of the House of Representatives next year. States like California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York have nearly two-dozen competitive seats between them, and they will become centers of attention within the coming year. However, those are large states; there are few states where over half of their congressional districts are competitive. Minnesota, the North Star State, has eight seats in the House of Representatives. The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan organization that monitors and rates state elections, rates five of these eight seats as competitive or potentially competitive.

These races highlight a wide variety of cultural and demographic changes happening in Minnesota and across the nation. Minnesota, traditionally a reliably Democratic state on the presidential level, slipped in 2016 to support Hillary Clinton by less than two percentage points in a state Obama won handily. Competitive districts sit all over the state, as rural Democrats vote Republican and suburban Romney voters turn away from Donald Trump. While Minnesota is unique as a state, it captures many of the trends happening in the United States and makes it one to watch this coming election.

Minnesota’s First Congressional District

Tim Walz (MN-01) chose to run for governor instead of facing a tough reelection.

This district, encompassing the southern part of the state, is a primarily rural area with a rich history of agriculture. On the presidential level, Minnesota’s first has been competitive, voting for George Bush and Barack Obama two times, each by single digits. In 2016, however, the district lurched right, voting for Donald Trump 53% to Hillary Clinton’s 38%. In this wave, popular incumbent Democrat Tim Walz was nearly swept away, winning by only three-thousand votes (in prior elections, he always held at least a ten-thousand vote lead). In early 2017, Walz announced that he would not seek re-election to his seat and would instead run for governor. This immediately opened the seat up to become competitive. While the district leans Republican, various cities like Rochester, Owatonna, and Mankato have buoyed Democratic candidates in the past.

Parties from both sides have contentious primaries for who will represent them in November. 2016 candidate Jim Hagedorn, who nearly defeated Walz in 2016 with little money or name recognition, is facing state senator Carla Nelson. On the Democratic side, Dan Feehan, an employee in the Obama Administration’s Secretary of Defense, is the frontrunner. For a race that could very well end up in the hands of either party, fundraising has been lackluster: no candidate of either party has more than $300,000 cash on hand.

For a Democrat to successfully retain this seat, they will need to balance the district’s idiosyncrasies with policy that satisfied progressives and that conservatives can swallow. Tim Walz did this with ease: before his gubernatorial run, he championed his positive NRA rating, while still voting for the Affordable Care Act and Cap and Trade. Walz, a sergeant major and Ranking Member of the House’s Veterans’ Affairs Committee, was also able to build a brand fighting for Veterans’ benefits. Health care is a key issue for this district; The Mayo Clinic, a Rochester Minnesota based health care hospital provider, gives the district thousands of high-skilled, high-paying jobs and grants the district a sizable amount of SEIU (Service Employees International Union) workers. Agriculture remains a staple of this district’s economy, and a candidate needs to be knowledgeable on the issues farmers face in the modern economy (Hagedorn, on the board of The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company, has an advantage here.)

Minnesota’s Second Congressional District

Jason Lewis, the freshman representative from Minnesota’s 2nd congressional district, faces a tough rematch.

Stretching from the South Metro to the edge of Winona County, Minnesota’s second is a formerly reliably Republican district that has shifted blue in the last decade. The district represents a section of the suburban Twin Cities, as well as powerful Minnesota industries like 3M and Blue Cross/Blue Shield Insurance. After Republican congressman John Kline retired in 2016, Democrats saw this as a prime pickup opportunity. Democrat Angie Craig, a medical executive, went toe-to-toe with Jason Lewis, a former radio talk show host and political author. This race was viewed as one of the most-watched in the country, as no candidate had a clear lead. Democrats attempted to tie Lewis to Donald Trump, calling them one and the same; in the end, however, both Lewis and Trump won the district 47% to their opponent’s 45%.

This November, Craig is up for a rematch against Lewis. The district is again viewed as a tossup. This time around, Craig hopes to use Lewis’s controversial votes to repeal the Affordable Care Act against him, and the wind could be on her back this time. By the end of 2017, Angie Craig’s fundraising began to outpace Lewis’s, yet he has a much larger war chest for November. Still, money isn’t everything; Craig held a major cash advantage in their first election, and still came up short.

Lewis, having only been elected once, is not a particularly strong incumbent. It is possible that Craig could run an identical campaign to her 2016 effort and easily defeat Jason Lewis — her devotion to health care could prove more effective after a months-long effort to repeal Obamacare. The suburban sprawl of Lewis’s district has been unkind to Trump, and Lewis may not be able to salvage his seat a second time.

Minnesota’s Third Congressional District

Erik Paulsen (MN-03) is a seasoned congressman facing a credible challenger.

Just west of the twin-cities, stretching from Brooklyn Park to Waconia, Minnesota’s third congressional district is a mostly suburban area featuring high-income neighborhoods in Edina, Wayzata, and Eden Prairie. This district represents one of the key problems with Republicans in a post-Romney election: wealthy, suburban voters who traditionally vote Republican have recently become turned off by Donald Trump. The district voted for President Bush in 2000 and 2004, then narrowly voted for Obama in the next two elections. In 2016, Hillary Clinton clinched the lion’s share of votes in the district, while Trump received an underwhelming forty-one percent.

The incumbent Republican, Eric Paulsen, has never had a competitive election in his time in the seat. Since 2009, Paulsen has comfortably won the seat, including in 2016, when he ran ahead of Donald Trump by fifteen percent. His voting record indicates he’s not worried about losing re-election, either; Paulsen voted for the American Health Care Act (AHCA), the controversial bill that attempted to dismantle the Affordable Care Act.

This year, however, Paulsen may not be so lucky. Hillary Clinton’s performance in the district made this an immediate target for House Democrats. In their attempt to unseat Paulsen, they attracted Dean Philips, a businessman famous for Telenti gelato and great-great-grandson of the founder of the Philips Distilling Company. Philips has thus far been a stellar candidate for the seat, raising over $1.2 million in 2017. He’s been featured in the local magazines christening him as “The Charm Offensive”. As a result, the Cook Political Report shifted this seat from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up.”

While Philips is certainly making his mark, it would be unwise to bet against Paulsen. While Philips is a good fundraiser, Paulsen sits upon a war chest, with two and a half times as much campaign cash as Philips. Paulsen has made a name within his community, and this election will be a test of the elasticity of suburban Republican voters: are they turned off by the Republican party in general? Or does their disgust start and end with Donald Trump?

Minnesota’s Seventh Congressional District

Collin Peterson (MN-07) is a well-positioned Democrat in the heart of Trump country.

This district is a tribute to the power of strong state parties and historical alignments. The 7th congressional district spans upon nearly all the Western border of Minnesota, is two-thirds rural, and has more square mileage than the state of Maine. From a distance, this district is an anomaly — it’s voted solidly Republican on the presidential level for decades. In 2016, it voted for Donald Trump by a ratio of two to one. Yet, Democratic representative Collin Peterson has survived every Republican attempt to dethrone him and is well-positioned to win re-election this November.

Collin Peterson is a specimen of an endangered species — the “Blue-Dog” Democrat. The Blue-Dogs, a coalition of center-left (and often center-right) Democrats, tend to shy away from progressive Democratic ideologies and focus on more workers’ rights and fiscal responsibility, have seen their number dwindle in recent elections. In 2008, there were fifty-four members. After 2010, half of them were defeated. In today’s congress, there are only eighteen. Peterson voted against the Affordable Care Act, receives fundraising checks from the NRA, and is unabashedly pro-life. With that being said, Peterson is not a Democrat in name only; he voted against the Obamacare repeal and the Republican tax overhaul.

Peterson has found a way to keep rural, conservative voters voting Democrat on a district-wide level, something Democrats have had trouble with, particularly in recent elections. Peterson also holds an incredibly important position in the house for the district; as ranking member of the House Committee of Agriculture, Peterson is second-in-line in terms of appropriating funding for agriculture-based programs. Were the Democrats to win hold of the House in 2018, Peterson would become chairmen, which would make Minnesota’s seventh district a priority for any farm-related bills to go through the house.

So far, Collin Peterson remains a strong contender to keep his seat next election. He has attracted no notable opponents as of yet and has amassed nearly a million dollars cash on hand (which goes a long way in rural areas). Were a credible Republican challenger to emerge, this seat would be a nail-biter. Until that happens, or Collin Peterson retires, this seat will likely remain in Democrat hands.

Minnesota’s Eighth Congressional District

Rick Nolan, the congressman from Minnesota’s eighth district, is not seeking reelection.

The northeastern part of Minnesota, roughly the size of West Virginia, stretches from the great lakes to the iron range. This historically Democratic stronghold has evolved into an amalgam of different factions — the more liberal-leaning city of Duluth counters the conservative areas of the southern tip of the district. The swing factor has been the mining regions of the state, which historically vote Democrat, but broke for Donald Trump in 2016.

While there are similarities between Minnesota’s 7th and 8th districts, the latter had not swung so hard to the Republican party until 2016; the region voted for Barack Obama by six-to-eight percent margins in 2008 and 2012 (In 2016, Donald Trump won by fifteen percent). The district has been trending red as of recently, yet it is to be seen whether all hope is lost for the Democrats.

The current congressman, Rick Nolan, is a Democrat who has served since 2012 (though, technically, Nolan served in the House in the eighties). In his past three elections, Nolan has had varying degrees of success in holding his seat. After Republican Chip Cravaack ousted a longtime Democrat in 2010, Rick Nolan won the seat in 2012. In 2014, a bad year for house Democrats, Rick Nolan eked out a win against businessman Stewart Mills III (whose family founded Mills Fleet Farm). In 2016, a rematch was held, and Nolan held on to his seat by a slim 0.6% (with only a 2,000-vote lead). Nolan’s past close races made him considered one of the most vulnerable House Democrats in the nation, and rightfully so.

While Nolan seemed prepared to take on a fourth fight, he announced his retirement from the House of Representatives in early February. While the tough congressional election ahead could have potentially played a factor, Nolan’s daughter has recently been diagnosed with lung cancer. Nolan likely would rather spend time with his daughter than campaign for a tough seat.

Nolan’s absence creates a hole in the democratic side of the primary. Whoever the Democrats choose to be their candidate will need to unite the many different factions of the region, from the more liberal universities in the Duluth area to the socially conservative towns just south of Canada. Republicans feel good about their challenger: St Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber has raised decent money for the seat. Stewart Mills raised chatter about a third run for the seat but has since ruled it out.