The NDP appears set to win a by-election that Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty engineered in a Progressive Conservative riding with hopes of regaining a majority, a new poll suggests.

In the last major survey before Thursday’s vote in Kitchener-Waterloo, Forum Research found NDP candidate Catherine Fife, chair of the Ontario Public School Boards Association, at 42 per cent.

That’s well ahead of the Liberals’ Eric Davis, at 26 per cent, and, more surprisingly, the Tories’ Tracey Weiler, at 26 per cent. The Greens’ Stacey Danckert was at 6 per cent.

A New Democratic victory would derail McGuinty’s bid for a de facto majority in the legislature.

It would also underscore the influence of teachers’ unions who have broken with the Liberals and rallied to Fife because of their anger at a wage freeze.

“Although this result preserves the status quo in the legislature, it definitely changes the political math and the calculations come out in favour of the NDP,” said Lorne Bozinoff, Forum president.

Using interactive voice-response telephone calls, Forum polled 721 people in Kitchener-Waterloo on Tuesday. The survey is considered accurate to within 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Kitchener-Waterloo had been held by Tory Elizabeth Witmer for 22 years, but she retired suddenly in April to accept McGuinty’s personal offer to chair the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board for $188,000 a year.

In the other by-election being held Thursday — to choose a successor to Liberal veteran Greg Sorbara — Forum found Grit candidate Steven Del Duca at 49 per cent, Tory Tony Genco at 37 per cent, New Democrat Paul Donofrio at 11 per cent, and the Greens’ Paula Conning at 3 per cent.

Forum polled 286 people in Vaughan on Tuesday and the results are accurate to within 6.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Earlier in the day, McGuinty, who will campaign in Kitchener-Waterloo on Wednesday night, expressed hope he could end the uncertainty of minority government he’s been saddled with since Oct. 6.

“It’s always a little but easier when you have a majority to act on a mandate, whether you’re trying to introduce a budget or moving ahead with a Putting Students First Act,” said the premier, referring to the teachers’ bill.

Tory Leader Tim Hudak, whose leadership would be hurt by a loss in Kitchener-Waterloo, put a brave face on things Tuesday.

“There’s no doubt Elizabeth Witmer was a very popular member there for a long time — it was more of a Witmer seat than I’d say a Tory seat or a Liberal seat or an NDP seat,” said Hudak.

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NDP MPP Peter Tabuns (Toronto-Danforth) urged voters to not give the Liberals a coveted 53rd seat in the 107-member legislature, which would enable the government to survive confidence motions because Speaker Dave Levac, the tie-breaker, by tradition would not cast a vote to dissolve the house.

With files from Rob Ferguson

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