Monday, January 28, 2013

I figured it was about time for an update to CAIRO, so here it is. The spreadsheet can be download via the following link:

cairo_2013_v0.3.zip.

Update: CAIRO v0.5 is now available

As far as what’s changed, not a ton aside from moving players to new teams but there are a couple of updates.

- Added Hiroyuki Nakajima and Ryu Hyun-jin

- Found major problems with Carlos Gonzalez’s projection (apparently there are about 50 Carlos Gonzalezs playing professional baseball) and corrected them

- Fixed some playing time issues with a few players

Things like wins/losses and saves haven’t been adjusted for team strength and expected roles so those will change as we get closer to the start of the season. Other than that most changes should be limited to fixing any other errors I find or moving players to new teams.

Here’s how this update sees the projected standings as of this morning. Rosters are current through all moves as of last night.

Date 1/28/2013 Iterations 100000 American League TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% Blue Jays 91 71 809 720 31.0% 10.3% 9.8% 51.1% Rays 88 74 709 641 24.8% 10.0% 9.2% 44.0% Yankees 87 75 778 735 22.9% 9.3% 9.4% 41.6% Red Sox 83 79 811 796 14.7% 6.7% 8.1% 29.4% Orioles 76 86 726 782 6.5% 3.8% 4.6% 14.9% TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% Tigers 89 73 800 717 44.9% 6.1% 6.9% 58.0% Royals 82 80 724 715 24.1% 6.2% 6.8% 37.0% White Sox 78 84 731 770 16.4% 4.7% 5.6% 26.7% Indians 74 88 703 761 10.2% 2.7% 4.1% 17.0% Twins 67 95 695 830 4.4% 1.1% 2.2% 7.7% TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% Angels 93 69 759 636 43.2% 12.8% 9.0% 65.1% Rangers 90 72 797 719 31.1% 13.0% 10.6% 54.7% Athletics 86 76 720 679 22.4% 11.4% 10.3% 44.1% Mariners 67 95 635 748 2.5% 1.4% 2.5% 6.3% Astros 61 101 663 871 0.8% 0.6% 1.1% 2.5% National League TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% Nationals 93 69 702 586 47.8% 10.3% 7.6% 65.7% Braves 86 76 677 640 26.9% 10.1% 8.3% 45.3% Phillies 81 81 661 671 15.8% 8.0% 7.9% 31.7% Mets 72 90 661 728 5.6% 2.9% 4.3% 12.9% Marlins 69 93 616 721 4.0% 1.7% 2.8% 8.4% TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% Reds 90 72 739 659 38.7% 8.4% 8.0% 55.0% Cardinals 87 75 696 650 30.1% 8.8% 8.5% 47.4% Brewers 79 83 708 736 13.1% 5.7% 6.5% 25.2% Pirates 78 84 670 688 11.5% 5.3% 6.0% 22.8% Cubs 73 89 641 706 6.6% 3.0% 3.8% 13.4% TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% Giants 89 73 668 602 30.3% 9.6% 8.5% 48.4% Dodgers 88 74 681 611 29.0% 9.1% 8.7% 46.8% Diamondbacks 85 77 702 663 21.8% 8.0% 8.3% 38.1% Padres 80 82 661 662 13.9% 6.4% 7.0% 27.3% Rockies 72 90 767 871 5.1% 2.7% 3.7% 11.5%

W: Projected final 2013 wins

L: Projected final 2013 losses

RS: Projected final 2013 runs scored

RA: Projected final 2013 runs allowed

Div: Division win percentage

WC1: Wild card win percentage

WC2: Wild card win percentage

PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)

As the title says, this is still too early and mostly useless. So view them in that way.

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