In less than a year of Narendra Modi becoming the prime minister in May 2014, the price of the Indian basket of crude oil crashed from $113 per barrel to $50 by January.That was a bonanza for a government struggling to manage fiscal deficit and planning large social-sector spends. When prices came down, opponents attributed it to Modi's luck and not his performance.At an election rally in Delhi in February 2015, Modi said, “Ok, let’s accept that I am lucky but you have saved money. If Modi’s luck is benefitting the people, what can be more fortunate? If due to my good luck, prices of petrol and diesel come down and common man saves more, then what is the need to bring someone who is unlucky?”Modi's run of luck went on, and the oil prices tumbled to $29 by January 2016. After a three-year lucky run, he is running out of it. Tightened by OPEC-led production cuts, oil is sensitive to all kinds of shocks. Prices have already touched the above-$65 mark. India's import bill has gone up and so has the current account deficit.2018 could be an unlucky year for Modi so far as oil is concerned. His vanishing oil luck will hit overall economic prospects too.India is heavily dependent on imports for a large chunk of the crude oil that it consumes. In 2016-17, around 82.1 per cent of the oil consumed in India, was imported. The rising oil prices in the global markets have caused the oil import bill to grow 15% in the second quarter ending September 2017 to $23.7 billion from $20.5 billion in the same period.A bigger oil import bill contributed to India's current account deficit doubling to 1.2% of GDP or $7.2 billion in the September quarter from 0.6% of GDP or $3.5 billion in the same period in 2016. The current account deficit is expected to widen and end the fiscal year at 1.7-2.0% of GDP.Last month, OPEC and non-OPEC producers led by Russia agreed to extend oil output cuts until the end of 2018 to tackle the global glut. Goldman raised its 2018 forecast for Brent price to $62 a barrel. Many see oil reaching even $70 a barrel if there is no boom in American shale gas production. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle-East will also contribute to hike in oil prices.A recent report by Nomura said every $10 per barrel rise in the price will worsen India’s fiscal balance by 0.1% and current account balance by 0.4% of GDP. “For a net oil importer like India, a sustained rise in crude oil price would have adverse macroeconomic implications,” it said. “Higher oil prices are tantamount to a negative terms-of-trade shock that weakens growth, pushes up inflation and deteriorates the twin deficits (current account deficit and fiscal deficit),” it added.Observing RBI estimates that for every $10/bbl rise in oil price, GDP growth is reduced by around 0.15% points, Nomura said economy was affected as rise in inflation due to higher prices could lower real disposable incomes of households and therefore hurt consumer discretionary demand. It will also lowers corporate profit margins due to rising input costs and accordingly impacts investment, among others.For baseline forecasts, the RBI has assumed the price of the Indian crude basket to average around $55 per barrel in the second half of the current fiscal. If it goes up to $65, it will push up inflation and affect chances of a rate cut.The government will not only forego the windfall revenue it had by increasing excise duties when oil prices were down, it might have to cut duties to save the consumer from rising prices when the next Lok Sabha elections in 2019 would be coming nearer while several states will hold assembly elections in 2018. In October, the government had to cut excise duties on petrol and diesel by Rs 2 per litre, taking an annual hit of Rs 26,000 crore in tax revenue, to cushion consumers from soaring fuel prices.Modi is under pressure to put economic growth back on track. The GDP has yet to fully emerge from the impact of GST. An oil price shock does not bode well for the economy still recovering from the impact of demonetisation and GST.Higher oil prices will constrain Modi who will like to increase social spending in view the elections. An adverse impact on growth, inflation and fiscal deficit will not help Modi to project his tenure as an economic success.A sharp drop in oil prices in 2018 will not only be bad for economy but also Modi's personal fortunes because many voters might prefer politicians luckier than Modi.