Australia is failing to reduce carbon emissions at a rate comparable to the US or the European Union, scientists have warned, with global emissions set to hit a record 36bn tonnes in 2013.

The Global Carbon Project, which draws data from climate researchers in 10 countries, found there had been stuttering progress by countries, including Australia, in reducing emissions to a level that would lessen the chances of dangerous climate change.

An “unprecedented” 36bn tonnes of CO2 is set to be pumped into the atmosphere this year, 61% higher than 1990. The annual growth in emissions is on course for 2.1%, similar to the 2.2% increase in 2012.

While this increase is below the average 3.1% annual rise seen since 2000, emissions need to “fall substantially and rapidly” if the world is to keep to an agreed target of below two degrees warming on pre-industrial levels, according to the British scientist Corinne Le Quere, lead author of the carbon project report.

Australia is faring relatively poorly in this regard, the project’s data reveals. The country emitted 371m tonnes of CO2 in 2012 – consistent with the levels seen over the past decade.

By contrast, US emissions in 2012 were down 3.7% on 2011. It emitted 5.1bn tonnes in 2012, following a downward trend since a highpoint of 5.8bn tonnes in 2007.

The 28 EU nations have followed a similar trajectory, likely influenced by the global economic downturn, with emissions falling a further 1.3% last year to 3.5bn tonnes.

China, which plans to cap its coal use by 2015, continues to be the runaway carbon emitter, pumping out 9.6bn tonnes of CO2 last year, a 5.9% increase on 2011, while India increased its emissions by 7.7%.

Overall, Australia is the 16th largest emitter of CO2 in the world, ranking 10th, higher than any other major western nation, in terms of per capita emissions.

In a briefing to journalists, Australia’s government science agency, Csiro, pointed out that the country had failed to consistently decrease its emissions, with the expansion of the coal seam gas industry partly responsible.

“Australia’s emissions have nearly stabilised in the last three or four years but there are no signs that emissions are decreasing,” said Csiro’s Dr Michael Raupach, co-author of the report.

“Europe and the US have done that in the last few years but we aren’t in that category yet.

“There has been a small tendency, of around 1% in the past year, for emissions in the energy sector to decrease, but this has been offset by other emissions, such as fugitive emissions from the expansion of the coal seam gas industry. We’re levelling off, not decreasing.”

The new Australian government has been severely criticised both domestically and internationally for its decisions to scrap the carbon price, limit the emissions reduction target to 5% by 2020 and to not send a minister to the UN climate talks in Warsaw.

On Monday, an international climate change performance index ranked Australia 57 out of 61 for its efforts to slow global warming, a fall of six places. Australia has so far been awarded the daily “fossil of the day” brickbat three times at the Warsaw summit.

“Australia will always have a role to play as a significant emitter and we’ll be watching closely to see if the world moves towards a centralised approached like Kyoto or an individual voluntary approach,” Raupach said. “In either case, it’s important Australia plays a role and, at the very least, meets the 5% goal.”

Raupach said Chinese emissions were “zooming ahead” of other countries, with coal production in the country rising by 6.4% last year, despite a huge uptake of renewable power. The current path of global emissions, he warned, would see the two degree limit breached within 30 years.

“We’ve already seen increased temperatures, on average by nearly one degree throughout the 20th century, and we’ve seen changes in the distribution of extreme weather events,” he said.

“The damage these changes will cause is potentially very significant. The damage will be very large unless we reduce emissions.”