In 2018, a Democrat was elected in a Republican stronghold in Chandler

Changing demographics and voter interest in education could explain why

But political experts aren't sure if this signals a long-term change

School pictures dating back to 1997, Rep. Jennifer Pawlik’s first year as a teacher, line her office walls in the Arizona House of Representatives as the legislative session opens. Her degree in elementary education hangs on a nearby wall while two decorative apples adorn a bookshelf.

Her office is an homage to her long teaching career and support of public education, which likely helped the rookie lawmaker win the election in Legislative District 17, which spans most of Chandler and parts of Gilbert.

Pawlik, a Democrat, was elected in November to the House in what has historically been a Republican stronghold.

Changing demographics spurred by a growing tech industry, the #RedForEd movement, and an energized Democratic voting bloc have allowed Democrats to make inroads in LD17.

Democrats in the district have registered to vote at a higher rate than Republicans, closing the voting disparity between the two parties, as the number of independent voters also has continued to grow.

Longtime insiders at the Arizona Capitol are unsure if Pawlik’s win signifies a political shift in Chandler or if it was a one-time victory for Democrats. The 2020 presidential election and redistricting could impact the long-term political landscape of the district, they said.

Measuring #RedForEd’s impact

As a first-time lawmaker, Pawlik said she was told to sit back and learn.

That’s not her style.

The freshman has already introduced House Bill 2203, which would appropriate $34 million to the Arizona School Facilities Board for building renewal grants.

During a recent meeting with state Rep. Michelle Udall, R-Mesa, chairwoman of the House Education Committee, Pawlik said she is working on several other bills, the bulk of which are education related.

Udall said she introduced one bill her first year, sponsored three her second year, and this year she has already introduced 19. It’s up to the individual member, she said. Some will introduce one bill a year. Others will introduce more than 40.

Udall warned Pawlik that she expects the committee to be inundated with bills this session.

Education was one of, if not, the top issue of the 2018 election and it brought tens of thousands of teachers to the Capitol to protest low school funding and teacher pay. It will likely be one of a handful of topics to dominate the conversation at the Legislature this year.

Democratic lobbyist Barry Dill said teachers historically have not been active participants in elections. The #RedForEd movement energized teachers and parents and called their attention to the importance of voting, which helped candidates like Pawlik, he said.

Former Chandler Mayor Jay Tibshraeny, who represented Chandler in the state Senate for eight years, said Republicans were slow to tackle the problem and Democrats seized on that. Though Pawlik was one of the few legislative teacher candidates elected, Democrats picked up seats in the House with education as their linchpin issue.

“Republicans were dragged to the party but Democrats were there willingly,” Tibshraeny said.

Pawlik said education was a keystone issue of her campaign because she saw firsthand how low teacher pay and education funding affects schools.

She said she was first inspired to run for office in 2013 after three of her colleagues left teaching because of low pay. Though she decided to stay in the classroom, she worked two other jobs to help make ends meet because her teacher salary wasn’t enough, she said.

Pawlik believes her experience resonated with teachers and voters.

“I think that they recognized that I had walked in their shoes. I wasn't just listening to them, but I knew what they were going through because that was my career for 17 years,” she said.

Changing demographics

Changing demographics have also led to a shift in the district.

Chandler has grown from a small farming town to the third-largest city in metro Phoenix with a population of about 250,000 people.

LD 17 is home to Intel Corp. and other high-tech companies that tend to employ people who are highly educated and affluent and who tend to be center-left, said Barry Aarons, a longtime Capitol lobbyist.

Aarons said LD 17 and neighboring Legislative District 18, which includes parts of Ahwatukee, Phoenix, Tempe and Chandler, were once “rock-ribbed red districts” that elected Republicans by significant margins. As the technology industry has exploded in the area, both districts have experienced a political shift to the left, he said.

“Gov. Ducey has been extremely successful in expanding high-tech jobs. The problem is, those people who come for those high-tech jobs bring their politics with them,” he said.

Voters in that field also prioritize high-quality education, he said.

Democrats numbers grow

Democrats have registered new voters at a faster rate than Republicans in the district, although Republicans represent the majority.

Since November 2012, the first election after new district lines were drawn, Democrats have registered 10,691 new voters, while Republicans have registered 7,046.

There were 39,810 active registered Democrats in LD 17 at the time of the November general election, compared with 53,424 registered Republicans and 49,448 independents, according to the Secretary of State's Office.

Although Republicans still outnumber Democrats by more than 13,600 voters, Democrats have closed the registration gap.

Nevertheless, Democrats haven’t always fielded a candidate in LD 17. The 2012 election was the first election since 2002that a Democrat ran for Senate in LD 17 and its predecessor Legislative District 21. The party has historically used the single-shot strategy in the House, running only one candidate for office and urging voters to use just one of their votes instead of both to increase the candidate’s chances of winning.

After running a candidate for the House in all but two elections in the past 16 years, the single-shot strategy paid off.

State Rep. Jeff Weninger, R-Chandler, Pawlik’s seatmate, said an increase in independent voters and independents who voted for Democrats this past election also helped Pawlik win.

At the state and federal level, west Chandler showed the strongest patterns of voters casting ballots for both Democratic U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Gov. Doug Ducey. These purple areas are generally home to the types of persuadable swing voters who tend to be, on average, more affluent and more educated.

In Chandler’s Comstock precinct, located in LD 17, Sinema had a 12 percentage point lead while Ducey had a 9 percentage point win over his opponent.

Is it a long-term shift?

Despite these trends, political insiders are unsure if Democrats can hold on to the seat and mimic the success the party has had in neighboring LD 18 where Democrats swept all three seats in 2018.

Though it’s typically hard to unseat an incumbent, various factors could lead the district to swing back to Republican control in 2020, experts said.

Republican consultant Chuck Coughlin said whether the district is competitive will depend on what the top issues of the election cycle are, how Democrats perform at the Legislature and who Democrats have at the top of the ticket in the next election.

The 2020 presidential election could affect how Democrats fare. Coughlin said presidential elections tend to attract more unaffiliated and soft-partisan voters that don’t vote straight down the ticket, which could benefit Democrats.

Dill said Democrats typically see higher turnout during presidential elections, which could also work in Democrats’ favor.

Who Democrats run in the district will also play a role. Political insiders agreed moderate Democrats, not progressives, will have the best chance in LD 17.

Tibshraeny, a Republican who has represented the area from City Hall to the state Capitol, said voters are looking for middle-of-the-road lawmakers who are willing to compromise and work with colleagues on the other side of the aisle. He said voters in the district are tired of the gridlock in Washington and they don’t want to see more of the same at the state level.

He said when he served in the Legislature, he deviated from party lines on certain issues, including public education. Even though he was sometimes ostracized by members of his own party, it’s what his constituents wanted, he said.

“I don’t think the District 17 folks are going to want the extremes on any one of the two sides whether it be Democrats or Republicans,” he said. “Voters will look for common sense resolutions to everyday problems and won’t put party labels on it,” he said.

He said he doesn’t believe Pawlik’s win was a one-time victory for Democrats and he anticipates LD 17 will be one to watch.

Redistricting could also change the long-term political makeup of the district, swaying LD 17 in either direction.

Aarons said in his nearly 50 years at the state Capitol, he has seen Republican strongholds shift left and moderate districts become solid red after redistricting.

“I’ve seen it go both ways … so what happens in 2020 may not be a harbinger for the future,” he said.

Weninger said while there has been a shift to the left in LD 17, it’s not as drastic as in LD 18. Whether Pawlik’s win signifies a long-term change will depend on her success at the Legislature, what bills she sponsors and supports, and whether she can work with Republicans, he said.

Pawlik is less on the fence.

“I felt confident that I would win one of the two seats. I was surprised that I came out on top,” she said. “I think things are changing and I don’t think it stops with me winning a seat in the House.”

Republicans lose power in LD 17

The new legislative session also signaled a change of hands in both chambers — a change that dealt a significant blow to LD 17 Republicans’ power.

The top positions in both the House and Senate were held by Republicans from LD 17 the last two years, meaning they had final say in what bills were heard on the floor and played a key role in budget decisions.

Former House Speaker J.D. Mesnard, who hit his term limit, was elected to the state Senate. He unsuccessfully ran against state Sen. Karen Fann, R-Prescott, for Senate president.

Former Senate President Steve Yarbrough retired after 16 years in the Legislature.

Reach the reporter at paulina.pineda@azcentral.com. Follow her on Twitter: @paulinapineda22.

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