Ahead of the Pope's visit last week to Krakow, Poland, to lead nearly 2 million Catholics in World Youth Day celebrations, news broke that an Iraqi man had been arrested in the Polish city of Lodz three days earlier carrying a small amount of explosives. The news swiftly followed the three Islamic extremist terrorist attacks that have taken place in Germany in recent days – including an attempt by a failed Syrian asylum seeker to blow himself up outside a music festival. It might seem as though the terror threat previously associated with France and Belgium is spreading eastward through Europe.

Police investigators work at the site of a suicide bombing in Ansbach, southern Germany, on July 25, 2016. Daniel Karmann | AFP | Getty Images

Realistic expectations

"Visegrad countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) are stepping up security measures and increasing their investigative powers," Blanka Kolenikova, deputy head of Europe analysis at research firm IHS Markit, told CNBC via telephone. Poland, which held a NATO summit in Warsaw earlier last month as well as World Youth Day, introduced border checks in early July and will keep them until Tuesday. German newspaper Deutsche Welle has reported a significantly increased police presence in Poland and Slovakia, particularly at public transport terminals The Polish Interior Ministry told CNBC via email that nearly 38,000 officers were "in charge of ensuring that the participants of World Youth Day were safe throughout Poland." Kolenikova asserts that western European countries are still more likely to be attacked. But, a base level of risk exists for Visegrad countries because they are all NATO members, and thereby support U.S. interests. "Recent events in Germany do not mean that there is a direct increase in the terrorism threat to central European countries," she said. Nonetheless, countering Islamic extremist terrorism has dominated the political narratives of Visegrad countries. Far-right parties have risen in popularity across the continent. Anti-immigrant rhetoric and security were key issues debated in the Slovakian elections earlier this year, with Prime Minster Robert Fico telling the news outlet TASR in May that "Islam has no place in Slovakia." "Governments are perhaps more nervous than ordinary people," Cvete Koneska, senior analyst for Europe at Control Risks, told CNBC via telephone.

The refugee question

Security fears have become focused on the increased number of asylum seekers and migrants from the Middle East. This, combined with the increase in terrorist attacks in France, Belgium and Germany, has led to some countries mounting border controls and thereby disrupting the Schengen Agreement, the European Union-wide deal that enables the free movement of people. The Polish Interior Ministry told CNBC that by 27th July, its border checks had resulted in the 226 arrests, the majority of which were individuals attempting to cross the border without the necessary documents. The Interior Ministry also say that, "border checks have resulted in a number of persons sought on the basis of the European Arrest Warrant to be identified." However IHS' Kolenikova believes that the migrant crisis isn't a security concern. "People connect terrorist attacks to the refugee influx, but it is wrong to do so. Take Greece for example, which has one of the highest numbers of refugees but is at a low risk of international terrorism," she told CNBC.