But optimists have fuel too.

Economic sectors that benefit from low energy prices, especially tourism and commercial fishing, are far bigger now than they were in the 1980s. The city also has a heft and reach it did not have then: it is connected to the economies of the world in ways it never was before, with one of the nation’s busiest airfreight hubs linking exporters and importers for balletic trades on the northern fly route between Asia and the markets of North America. And the state government has savings, built up in the last few years, that could help avoid the drastic cuts that badly hurt the economy last time.

“It’s too early to panic,” said Bill Popp, the president and chief executive of the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation. But, he added, “It’s also a time to be choosing our steps very carefully.”

Mr. Popp said he believes a more mature Anchorage — a city founded only 100 years ago — will take some hits, but avoid catastrophe. Yet he noted that decisions made in a climate of fear, such as reduced spending by households or businesses, could hurt the city and become self-fulfilling.

Some small businesses have been paring back expenses and payroll, but not by choice. Beacon Occupational Health and Safety Service, for example, a business in Anchorage started by Mark and Holly Hylen in 1999 that has grown to about 300 employees, contracts with several oil companies that are spending less and pushing that down the chain, said Mr. Hylen, the firm’s vice president. Beacon had to cut 24 employees’ pay last year in a contract change for oil field safety services, and about 12 of those people quit.

“Everybody is looking at ways to be more efficient,” said Mr. Hylan. “The pressure intensifies.”

The recent decision by the Obama administration to seek federal wilderness protection for millions of acres in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in the state’s northeast corner, which would take those lands off the table for oil or gas drilling, also sends a bad signal in a scary time, oil industry officials said. In the expensive projects in the state’s far north, political fears might provide excuses to pull back, said Kara Moriarty, the president and chief executive of the Alaska Oil and Gas Association.

“In this price environment, those projects are on the margin to begin with,” she said, referring to drilling sites above the Arctic Circle. “Now to put further restrictions, it sends a signal that Alaska is not open for business.”

Part of the economic calculus is that Anchorage is also the state’s marketplace for goods bought by other Alaskans, who by and large pass through on their way to smaller cities or rural villages. And the rest of the state lacks the diversified economy of Anchorage, making those places more vulnerable to the impact of cuts in state spending or revenue sharing.

“What’s good for rural Alaska is good for Anchorage,” said Anchorage’s mayor, Dan Sullivan. “It’s a symbiotic relationship.”