TWO months into the season, two tiers appear to have emerged in the AFL.

There are the haves and the have nots. And by that we mean having a chance to play finals, and not having much of a chance.

Analysis from Champion Data has revealed the top 11 teams on the AFL ladder have been simply dominant against the bottom seven, with the latter group winning just three matches against the former.

So while it’s not a certainty, it sure seems like only 11 teams are in contention for finals footy right now.

Finals Week 1

THE STRUGGLING SEVEN

The bottom seven of the ladder, consisting of Fremantle, the Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Essendon, St Kilda, Carlton and Brisbane has already distinguished itself as a poor group of teams.

The group has won just three games against the top 11, with an overall win-loss record of 3-28 (with one draw). Those wins were by the Bombers (in upsets against the South Australian sides) and Suns (against North Melbourne in cyclone conditions in Round 1), while the Saints drew with GWS.

So even though the ladder may seem close, there are clear signs that a major divide has formed.

LISTEN TO THE LATEST EPISODE OF THE FOX FOOTY PODCAST BELOW, OR TAP HERE TO SUBSCRIBE IN ITUNES

For example, in 13th sit the Western Bulldogs, with a record of 4-4. In third sits Geelong, with a record of 5-3. That sure seems like a small gap.

But the Dogs’ wins have all come against fellow members of the bottom seven. They have beaten the Bombers, Blues, Suns and Lions by an average margin of 16 points. Neither the wins nor the competition have been impressive.

Geelong meanwhile has beaten Melbourne, Port Adelaide, GWS and Collingwood (plus St Kilda from the bottom seven) to get to its record. Not the AFL’s elite, you could argue, but they’re finals contenders, at least.

LIVE stream the 2018 Toyota AFL Premiership on FOX SPORTS. Get your free 2-week trial >. If you’re overseas, you can still stream it LIVE on Watch AFL >

In fact, in the Cats’ eight matches, they have only played one member of the bottom seven (the Saints). That makes their 5-3 record somewhat more impressive.

Of the bottom seven, the Bombers are the best performer against the top 11, with a record of 2-3 and a percentage of 84.3, while Brisbane’s percentage of 67.3 is the next-best.

GREAT TEAMS DOING WHAT GREAT TEAMS DO

The true sign of a great team is smashing poor opposition. It’s a test that works across all major sports.

Richmond, then, is a great team. The ladder-leading Tigers have a record of 3-0 against bottom seven teams with a percentage of 235% in those matches.

Similarly West Coast is proving its mettle by easily taking care of bad opposition with a 4-0 record against the bottom seven.

Here are the records of every top 11 team against the top 11 and then the bottom seven:

Richmond - 4-1 - 3-0

West Coast - 3-1 - 4-0

Geelong - 4-3 - 1-0

Adelaide - 2-2 - 3-1

Hawthorn - 3-3 - 2-0

Melbourne - 1-3 - 4-0

Sydney - 4-3 - 1-0

Port Adelaide - 3-2 - 2-1

GWS - 1-3 - 3-0-1

North Melbourne - 2-3 - 2-1

Collingwood - 1-4 - 3-0

There’s also a very simple way to sum all of this up. The top 11 teams all have a percentage above 100; the bottom seven teams are all below 100%, with only Fremantle (94.3%) above 83%.

SO IS THE TOP 11 REALLY SET IN STONE?

None of this is for certain, obviously; it’s more about what is exceedingly likely.

For each team’s finals chances, we can look to Champion Data’s simulations of the rest of the season. However these were released after Round 7 and so do not take into account the most recent set of games.

Get the ultimate AFL experience on your phone with the new FOX FOOTY App. Download it NOW for FREE on iOS and Android!

Richmond and Adelaide are judged to be the most likely finals sides, given chances of 93% and 91% respectively to make the top eight. Geelong and Sydney are next at 80% and 76%.

Five teams are then above 60% to make the top eight, with a few surprises. GWS (75%) and Collingwood (70%) sit above West Coast (70%, but below the Magpies likely due to rounding), followed by Port Adelaide (66%) and Hawthorn (61%).

Melbourne is close behind (59%) before a massive gap to North Melbourne (17%) and the Western Bulldogs (17%).

Essendon (8%), Fremantle (6%), Gold Coast (5%), St Kilda (4%), Brisbane (less than 1%) and Carlton (less than 1%) round out the list.

Finals Chances (post Round 7) pic.twitter.com/PN7d5ekaCw — Champion Data AFL (@championdata) May 9, 2018

A number of fan footy blogs also estimated each team’s chance of making the finals after Round 7.

The statistical wisdom of Matter of Stats, plusSixOne and The Arc was collated and presented in very pretty fashion by the latter late last week.