Posted by

Aaron Nielsen ,

August 17, 2014 Email

Aaron Nielsen



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@ENBSports

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It has been a difficult season for the Ottawa Fury on the pitch. The split schedule hides the fact the club is 3-3-9 on the year in the NASL and fighting to stay out of last place with Indy Eleven and FC Edmonton, who have similar records midway through the season. Their record has been somewhat of a surprise to me. Prior to the season I expected the Fury to compete for at least mid-table security, and maybe a playoff run based on the quality of their players' past performances prior to joining the club. As well as an inside view of the club from ownership and management, who talked about a structure and belief to minimize risks, which answered concerns I might have had. The question I ask myself is: Was I fooled? Did I become a product of fandom? I wanted the Fury to be a success both on and off the pitch, so was hoping the team would be successful to add a happy ending to this storyline. Or is this just a product of soccer and sports where things happen that are completely out of anyone's control? Most of the analysis I provide is based on performance and statistical output, and I let the statistical data speak for itself. Also, unless I'm the one making the decisions, am not emotionally invested in someone else's choices. The reality is, when it comes to leagues like the English Premier League, even though I have been following it for twenty years, I don't support a particular club. In North America, arguably my connection to Toronto FC is more one through friends and hoping they succeed for them moreso than my own interests. I supported specific clubs growing up, but statistics changed most of this as you begin to see things happen in sport for a reason and not because you hope it happens. My projection and statistical analysis work also has a purpose beyond creating content for articles and making me a target of ridicule from people who live or die from home team passion. This includes my recent projection for the upcoming English Premier League which produced over one hundred responses on twitter saying how little I know about the game. The purpose of the work is evaluation in providing the same service to what people do in many fields of business - Quality Assurance. What the analysis is supposed to show is what should be expected, monitoring how things develop, and how to tweak issues to fix a problem opposed to letting the whole project get out of hand. Which has been the history of Toronto FC most of their existence. In the case of soccer I have a complete history of past statistical performances for all players, which gives me an idea of how players are supposed to perform across the league and then base team expectations of this. I also take data throughout the season to monitor the situation and continue or amend my evaluation. For the 2014 season, instead of producing their own information and data as they did in previous years, the NASL has chosen to partner up with an outside provider based in Europe to market and make information available. This has made following the NASL much more difficult and most of the information is useless because the provider's main interest is the betting market. The information they do make available is purely designed for that market, as well produced as cheaply as possible. It's much more difficult for a person like myself to evaluate issues, although I have watched video of games, collected data where I could and read about the team. This includes new RNO writers Namu Yoon and Stuart MacTaggart, as well as the Ours is the Fury Podcast, who have done a great job giving the facts as well as the current feeling around the team. From the start, as mentioned in my Ottawa Fury preview, there was a number of team development moves I liked at the time and still agree with the moves today. The club brought in a number of players with previous professional experience at similar levels to the NASL. Players who are aware of what it takes to be successful at this level of the game and are aware of the struggles to be expected in an under-valued, under-appreciated environment. As well as the added issues of travel that maybe only a club in Russia has experienced anywhere else in the world. The biggest thing that stands out is that the Fury's initial big-time signing Nicki Paterson has only played five games and 386 minutes, while former MLS striker Tommy Heinemann has only played in eight games and 579 minutes. These games/minutes missed through injuries have had a big impact on the club as I expected them to be in the starting eleven. Looking at expected results, Paterson would have scored goals, made assists and been the club's dead ball specialists. Tommy Heinemann, in my view, was their best striker option and had the potential of being one of the league's top goalscorers, similar to what Columbus Crew loanee Aaron Schoenfeld has done with Dayton this year in USL Pro. Not necessarily easy to watch, sometimes these tall/sturdy strikers make a big impact in North American leagues, partly because as I mentioned in my previous article, the leniency of North American referees. The most positive aspect of the Fury this season, as I predicted in the preseason, has been the play of the veteran midfield. Richie Ryan has been consistent in the holding midfield role and added three assists this season. Tony Donatelli has probably been the team's MVP showing the savviness that 200 games at this level will bring. While more was probably expected out of Sinisa Ubiparipovic when the season began, he still has been a consistent stater and provided two goals and an assist. These three players, and a healthy Nicki Paterson, should provide a very professional performance with an offensive upside which are ranked only to San Antonio as a top midfield in the league. The questions of concern begin at the back and Heinemann's replacements at forward. Unfortunately the Canadian players are part of the concern. This has been a curse, because I really want Canadian players to perform well, have successful careers and be competitive. There are signs in analysis that show a different story from the Men's National team being rightfully 5th or 6th in CONCACAF, concerns for the Women's national team going forward and in the case of Ottawa, Canadian players either playing in positions of team weakness or not taking advantage of opportunities. Going into the season I profiled two Canadian players who I had high expectations for and felt the biggest thing they lacked was the chances in their career to show they could potentially be both future MLS and National Team players. Due to the Heinemann injury, Carl Haworth has been given opportunities; more than I even expected, playing in 15 games and 1069 minutes and will be known in the record books as the first player to score a goal for Ottawa at TD Place. The issue is he hasn't been consistent enough or taken his chances and his recent goal was his first on the season. Previously in his career at college and PDL, Haworth has shown the ability to capitalize on his opportunities similar to a Dom Dwyer or Jonathan Osorio, and hopefully scoring will give him the confidence that management has so far shown in him. Andres Fresenga was another exciting prospect that you hoped would make an impact with the Fury and very soon be both an the MLS and National Team regular. I did have some concerns with him playing in Uruguay, which is a league I cover statistically and he had yet to play a professional league game. However, with seven years of development in South America the hope was he could translate his development in game situations. Fresenga has suffered some knee issues, but has only played in four of the Fury games, while being an unused sub seven times, so there is now concerns if the Fury will keep him beyond this season. Meanwhile, fellow Canadians Mason Trafford, Drew Beckie, and Phillipe Davies have been automatics on the team sheets, although their play would be regarded as satisfactory and haven't shown that they automatically deserve to play at a higher level. I commend the Fury for taking these risks on Canadian players and wouldn't blame them directly or expected more from them, because of the failures on other moves the club has made in putting the team together. One being, and I noted at the beginning of the season, was a concern in net and the club has tried to fix this in signing 35 year old Romuald Peiser, who played a number of seasons in Portugal. I feel a better option was to try to get a keeper on loan from an MLS club at the start of the season, as goalkeeping tends to be one position that we excel at in terms of development in North America, but at least Peiser means they are trying to fix the issue. The other issue which is a red flag, is the hope that foreign players will be able to adapt and make an impact in the league. The club brought three Brazilians in Maykon, Oliver, and Dantas, who were supposed to be the Fury's x-factors this season. As mentioned in many of my MLS columns, these moves always concern me. This is especially since these players are part of my database and if truly successful at their previous club, they most likely would not be joining a second division club in North America. In the case of the Fury, I went against my general rule as I was convinced otherwise by Ottawa manager Marc Dos Santos that he had a relationship and belief in these players to be successful in the NASL. While they have shown glimpses of skill so far, we have both been proven wrong and I feel this has much to do with the poor results more than anything. The one aspect of the club I'm unaware of is their budget, so I can't truly judge what was expected from each player based on that evaluation. Perhaps despite their reputation, certain players were brought in cheaply, while names I haven't mention such as Soria and Jarun, based on salary, were supposed to play a much larger role than they have and should also be criticized. This season is probably over in terms of the playoffs and the Fury are realistically looking at a seventh overall place as something to aim for. Evaluating the club currently, it's not a complete waste of a season as it provides experience and understanding of the league. If the Fury can retain the services of five or six of their more consistent players, that can become the building block in developing a more competitive club next year. Truthfully, in evaluating the league at the start I should have removed my personal attachment, as my general assessment and predictions of the league this season has been pretty good. Of note were the players who have excelled throughout the league this season who have been historically consistent performers at this level. These are players with a proven past who are too big for this league, such as Eric Hassli and Marcos Serna, and young players, which there are thousands in North America who are brought in for cheap but take advantage of their opportunities. The top teams this year all have players who were in my 20 overlooked by MLS. Based on budget constraints and availability to players, I feel this is the model and roster make-up that will always be the template for success. It should be something to consider for Ottawa and Edmonton, and if the NASL/CFL deal comes to fruition, then soon to be Canada's league.