Let’s get one thing out of the way before we start: Derek Carr is a fine young quarterback. He’s good. Probably somewhere in the third tier of NFL quarterbacks. Not bad for a 26-year-old.

OK, got it? Raiders fans, you might want to click away now because you’re not going to like what follows, as you can probably tell from the headline. And it’s a bit odd that you won’t like what you’re about to read because I’m about to praise about 98% of your favorite team’s roster. But, for some reason, we’re willing to tear down the other 52 men who make up a team’s roster if only to prop up the quarterback.

This is true for every fanbase outside of Cleveland (and Houston in recent years) by the way. It’s never the supposed franchise quarterback’s fault. It’s the offensive line or the receivers or the coaching or all three. But that’s not the case in Oakland, where Derek Carr enjoys maybe the best supporting cast in all of football. If it’s not the best, it’s certainly in the discussion.

Great offensive line? Check. In fact, it might be the best in the league when it comes to pass protection. Yes, even better than Dallas’ line.

Good receiving corps? You bet. Amari Cooper is a route-running stud. Michael Crabtree may drop some passes, but he’s an elite WR2. And the team just gave Carr a good passing tight end in the form of Jared Cook.

Good running game? Good may be a stretch, but it was certainly solid. And the Raiders short passing game — Oakland has thrown a lot of screen passes over the last three seasons — is really an extension of that running game. Oakland was able to keep Carr in favorable down-and-distances all season. Only 72 of his 560 attempts came on 3rd-and-long.

The point is, Carr has had a lot of help, which makes you wonder if the Raiders will come to regret making him the highest-paid player in NFL history, as they did on Thursday, inking the 26-year-old to a five-year, $125 million contract. After all, if the quarterback is making that much, how can the team possibly keep that stellar supporting group around him? The team still has to lock up 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack, Cooper and keep its dominant offensive line intact. It won’t be able to lock them all up with the quarterback making more than 15% of the cap, so sacrifices will have to be made.

And that’s why you have to look beyond Carr’s raw numbers when assessing this deal to figure out if he’s capable of elevating those around him. The answer to that question is unclear, which should at least give Raiders fans some pause before celebrating this deal.

Now, if the team had gotten him at a below-market price, then, by all means, celebrate. But simply locking him for the going rate is not something to cheer about. NFL teams don’t get ahead by simply going with the market; they get ahead by finding market inefficiencies. That didn’t happen here.

(Please spare me the “Did you see our offense after Carr got hurt?” argument. We’re talking about a $25 million-per-year contract. The point of comparison should not be Connor Cook.)

As I wrote back in October, the key to the Raiders’ offensive success in 2016 was the offensive line, which built an impenetrable wall around Carr. Only Ben Roethlisberger was pressured on fewer dropbacks, per Football Outsiders. So what happens if that line suddenly falls apart due to old age and contract disputes? Suddenly Carr’s inability to anticipate throws and his lazy footwork in the pocket becomes an issue.

We’re still seeing way too many flat-footed throws from Carr in clean pockets, which can cause him to under-throw open receivers. He has no reason not to step into this throw and put the ball out in front of his tight end:

And what happens if he loses Cooper or when the 29-year-old Crabtree’s play eventually declines? All of a sudden his accuracy issues become more of a problem.

And what happens when his interception luck turns around? Carr finished fourth with an interception percentage of 1.1% in 2016, cutting that number in half from 2015. But the Raiders quarterback finished with 24 interceptable passes, per Cian Fahey’s charting numbers. Just 14 quarterbacks had more last season. Per Fahey, none of Carr’s six interceptions were the fault of his receivers, either. That’s rare. Like “one of only four quarterbacks to enjoy that luxury” rare. Don’t expect Carr to be a single-digit interception guy again.

The other big concern with Carr, which doesn’t have much to do with the players around him, is his yard-per-attempt average. In three years, he has yet to post a league average yards-per-attempt. So he may produce impressive numbers, but some of those numbers are empty. That’s why he doesn’t perform as well in situation-dependent metrics, like ESPN’s QBR, as he does in more traditional statistics.

Carr finished 16th in QBR, and finished with the sixth-highest “Failed Completion Percentage” in 2016, per Football Outsiders. A failed completion being a pass completion that does not gain “gain 45 percent of needed yards on first down; 60 percent of needed yards on second down; or 100 percent of needed yards on third or fourth down.” Only Cody Kessler, Ryan Tannehill, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco and Jared Goff threw a higher percentage of failed completions. That’s not the company you want your highly-paid quarterback to keep.

These numbers aren’t going to convince Raiders fans to turn on their franchise savior. But they should create some doubt in their minds about this mega deal. Carr isn’t a lock to grow into a elite quarterback, and he’ll need to if he’s going to earn this contract. There’s as good a chance this ends up derailing the franchise down the road, as Flacco’s deal in 2012 did to the Ravens.

Look, Carr’s a promising quarterback who has the potential to grow into a legit franchise quarterback capable of elevating his supporting cast rather than the other way around. He just isn’t there yet. Although you wouldn’t know it based on his ranking in the NFL’s ‘Top 100 Players’ list (11th) or his new record-breaking contract.