The market

Global crypto markets including Bitcoin and Altcoins are taking the plunge. Bitcoin has capitulated recently after several weeks of sideways movements. This didn’t help Altcoins either, but they have been surprisingly resilient on this last wave downwards making us hopeful that there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Fundamentally Bitcoin has never seen such adoption news, ICE-backed Bakkt will launch in January and ErisX is working with TD Ameritrade to launch competition as well.

The chart

The chart via BitStamp shows us that Bitcoin has managed an overall decline of over 80%. This isn’t unheard of in the world of Bitcoin , but is surely a sharp consolidation. You can see the historical drawbacks on this image, which was shared on Quora:

Additionally, what we can see on the chart is that the descending triangle has finally broke down and validated the pattern. This resulted in a sharp drop of 45% in a few days before stopping at a historical support line.

The RSI indicator has never been this low according to the historical chart on BitStamp (counting from 2013).

A decline of this magnitude can’t be sustained for a very long period as sellers get exhausted. Currently everyone who bought and held Bitcoin after August 2017 has already suffered their losses.

Current volumes is hitting the average high levels of the pre-run or even the bull run’s top, showing signs of capitulations together with the speed of the decline.

At this point our worst case scenario would be a further few % drop into the actual range of $3200-$3500 as the next possible support area is down at 2000, but that point would shake out the last bit of confidence from the market.

We feel that the market will range in the $3000-$5000 zone until Bakkt launches.