Three candidates who have never held political office — Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina — have combined to amass a majority of support in G.O.P. primary polls. Not coincidentally, a majority of potential Republican voters say they would prefer a president without experience in Washington.

These patterns have made it seem as if Mr. Trump, Mr. Carson and Mrs. Fiorina are all part of the same broad phenomenon: Republicans, fed up with the state of the country and their party, have turned against the establishment. As a result, outsiders appear to be well positioned to win a majority of voters in 2016 — a significant change from recent presidential cycles, when establishment Republican candidates prevailed.

There may well be some truth to this. We won’t know for sure until the voting gets closer and people’s preferences start to settle in. But it does seem clear, even now, that the outsider boomlet, which has been talked up by many election observers, isn’t quite what it appears at first glance.