The obvious way to read the surprise resignation of Kezia Dugdale as leader of the Scottish Labour party is to cast her as the victim of a likely putsch by forces loyal to Jeremy Corbyn. According to this view, Dugdale jumped before she was pushed, pre-empting the challenge she would have faced sooner or later as punishment for opposing Corbyn from the start – a position rendered unsustainable by the UK leader’s better-than-expected performance in June’s general election.

Confirmation of the untenability of her situation came, on this reading, with Corbyn’s successful trip to Scotland last week, in which he played to packed houses in 18 constituencies, suggesting Dugdale was out of step with her own party faithful on the Corbyn question. Viewed like this, her successor is bound to be a loyal Corbynite who will give the UK leader what he currently lacks: a majority on the UK party’s ruling national executive committee.

That all sounds logical enough, but it might be a tad too glib. For one thing, the explanation for Dugdale’s departure may not reside solely in the jockeying of political factions. It’s just possible that the human reasons Dugdale cited in her resignation letter played a crucial part too. Those who know her well say that exhaustion – with election upon referendum upon election over the past two years – was real, as was the toll on her personal life.

Political analysts are meant to raise an arched eyebrow at such things, as if they are only ever cover stories for the real, political motivation underneath. But every now and again the human factor is genuine and decisive.

If the Corbynites were ready to pounce, then there would be an obvious Corbynite candidate standing by. But there isn’t

Even viewed politically, the instant reading is suspect. Seasoned observers are sceptical that a leadership challenge in Scotland was imminent. If the Corbynites were truly readying to pounce, then there would be an obvious Corbynite candidate standing by. But there isn’t. Neil Findlay has told the Guardian he is not running, and there are doubts over fellow MSPs Alex Rowley and Richard Leonard. Instead the early money is on Anas Sarwar, usually described as a moderate and a pragmatist.

It’s quite clear that the next Scottish Labour leader will have to be publicly at peace with Corbyn. The Labour leader’s support is building among Scottish party members and supporters, as last week’s tour showed. Corbyn’s message – against austerity, for public ownership – strikes a chord with many Scots who had abandoned the party in recent years.

The new Scottish leader will have to be in tune with that sentiment. But that does not mean that Dugdale’s successor is bound to be a card-carrying Corbynite. It’s worth recalling that the one place where Corbyn lost outright in 2016 to his challenger Owen Smith was not Smith’s home turf of Wales, but Scotland. Scottish party members preferred Smith to Corbyn by 18 points.

Scottish Labour membership has increased in the Corbyn period, but not by the phenomenal degree it has elsewhere in the UK. The scope for a Momentum-style surge in Scotland is limited. The left is a crowded marketplace in Scotland, with competition from the SNP but also the wider yes movement, including the Radical Independence Campaign, to say nothing of a Scottish Green party that can claim more MSPs than the Lib Dems.

We’ve seen enough in these islands to know that no one should make any predictions. It’s perfectly possible that Dugdale’s exit will trigger a Scottish version of Corbynmania, which will see the UK leader rewarded with a devoted ally in Edinburgh. That could happen. But in Scotland, as elsewhere, it’s wise to make few assumptions.

• Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist