Carlos Castaneda sat outside the New Jersey Statehouse in a wheelchair, too weak to walk, as he watched his hunger strike come to an end. His dramatic act failed to convince the Legislature to approve driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants.

"It did get the community to rise up and speak out,'' said Castaneda, who lives in Elizabeth, and is vowing to press for passage in 2019.. "We are not going to stay idle and we're not going to let our future pass us by."

Castaneda and his fellow activists are getting a sobering crash course in the political realities of the Statehouse in the Phil Murphy era.

Despite the growing visibility and clout of the party's grassroots, the moderate Democratic Party's leaders who run the Legislature are determined to stay safely in the political center — especially during the run-up to a legislative election.

Next year, all 80 seats of the Assembly will be up for election on the November ballot. Most political observers expect Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin, D-Middlesex, who is responsible for the Assembly Democratic campaign, to stay clear of any proposals like undocumented driver's licenses — they smack of controversy and potentially make his members easy targets for Republican attack ads.

LOWRY:On Trump National, and our great hypocrisy on immigration

EDITORIAL:Building immigrants’ trust, and getting back to basics

Assembly elections are also typically low-turnout contests, and Democratic strategists see no advantage of pushing an issue that could help rile up the Republican base, which is already simmering over Murphy's campaign pledge to make New Jersey a "sanctuary state" and Attorney General Gurbir Grewal's recent directive limiting local police cooperation with federal immigration officers.

Although the chances of Coughlin losing majority control are low — the Democrats' 54-26 advantage is one of the most lopsided in more than three decades — a vote on the driver's licenses could force the party to spend heavily to defend at least four competitive districts.

Better to wait and take up the issue after the election, in the lame-duck voting sessions when nothing-to-lose retirees and lawmakers who lost their re-election are rounded up for controversial votes, analysts say.

Although aware of the political strategy, immigrant-rights advocates can barely conceal their frustration. To many, it's a familiar story of a progressive priority being sidelined for electoral considerations. The bill could allow as many as 500,000 immigrants to legally drive on New Jersey roads.

"I think we live in a political reality and the expectation is that politicians are not going to work for us,'' said Carlos Rojas, a member of the New Brunswick-based Cosecha, which organized the hunger strike and other protests. "The reality is that sometimes they find what is convenient for them."

Johanna Calle, director of the New Jersey Alliance for Immigrant Justice, argued that the political nervousness is unwarranted in a blue and decidedly anti-Donald Trump state like New Jersey.

"We know that they have the votes. We have been talking to legislators who support it,'' she said during a recent rally at the Trenton War Memorial. "It's a safety issue for everyone. You and I are going to be on the road. We ought to know who is tested, who is insured. It is something that everyone agrees on. It is not that controversial."

But if there are enough votes in the Democratic caucus, Coughlin isn't saying. In a brief interview in the Statehouse hallway, he brushed aside a question about political considerations.

"The Speaker is awaiting a finished product for a thorough review before deciding on a course of action and a time frame for moving the bill,'' said Kevin McArdle, a spokesman for Coughlin.

Senate President Stephen Sweeney, D-Gloucester, another supporter, also refused to commit to a course of action and said he would take his cues from Coughlin.

"Do I think we can get something done this year? There's a possibility," Sweeney said.

Murphy, also a champion of driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants, says the bill is now on the "front burner" of the Statehouse agenda. Yet Murphy acknowledged that the bill's fate is far from certain.

"We are going to continue to talk about it and hope that it stays there," he said in a recent editorial board meeting with NorthJersey.com and USA TODAY NETWORK New Jersey.

When it was suggested that the bill might be pushed into the lame duck session late next year, the governor said, "that would be a huge mistake."

It also would not be the first time that an immigrant driver's license proposal was sidelined by electoral concerns.

A blue-ribbon panel in 2009 created by then-Gov. Jon Corzine called for providing a special "driver's privilege card" for undocumented immigrants. The panel said that licensed immigrants would make roads safer, stimulate the economy and help bring immigrants out of the shadows and into the mainstream.

But Corzine was running for re-election against Republican Chris Christie, a former federal prosecutor who opposed awarding the licenses. A Monmouth University poll at the time showed that about 6 out of 10 New Jersey voters opposed the idea.

Corzine opted not to publicly endorse the idea when the panel's findings were released, even though he was privately in favor of it.

"He agreed with it (but) it was something that he could not afford to push,'' said Ronald Chen, dean of the Rutgers Law School who served as chairman of the panel. "It would have to wait for the second term, which never came."

Opponents at the time also cited concerns over terrorism. After the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, many states made it more difficult for undocumented immigrants to obtain licenses, fearing that the document would give a false air of legitimacy and allow terrorists, for instance, to board planes and rent apartments.

Those fears remain rooted among the conservative base voters and were recently fanned by Trump, who has repeatedly warned that terrorists have infiltrated the ranks of migrants trying to enter the country.

"This is an inappropriate use of limited public resources (and) there are the serious homeland security issues at stake which simply cannot be disregarded for the sake of political expediency," according to a joint statement earlier this year by Sen. Christopher Connors, Assemblyman Brian Rumpf and Assemblywoman DiAnne Gove, Republicans representing the 9th District in parts of Ocean, Atlantic and Burlington counties.

But the bill introduced in November by Assemblywoman Annette Quijano, D-Union, and Sen. Joe Vitale, D-Middlesex, aims to allay those fears with a new two-tier licensing system. The bill calls for the creation of a New Jersey license that will comply with the federal REAL ID Act, a 2005 law that tightens security at airports and federal buildings.

Twenty-six states have adopted the new standards and New Jersey has until next October to comply. But the new legislation also calls for separate "standard" licenses for unauthorized immigrants, certain senior citizens and others who lack documentation. The new license won't permit them to fly on planes or enter federal facilities.

Even with those modifications, most expect the bill to sit on the shelf until after the election. But that doesn't mean the issue will lie dormant during the Assembly campaign. Republicans have been unable to resist reviving the issue in past campaigns and most Democrats expect more of the same in 2019.

Assemblyman Robert Andrzejczak, D-Cape May County, recalled how his Republican opponents cast him as an undocumented immigrant sympathizer in 2015, even though he repeatedly declared his opposition to the driver's license for undocumented immigrants.

"Even though we were very public against it, there were still mailers going out," said Andrzejczak, whose district is expected to be a targeted tossup next year.

Regardless of the campaign politics, Castaneda remains optimistic.

"Our community feels that this is possible, not just the driver's license but any other topic or issue that we can fight on," he said.

Possible. But he will likely have to wait at least another year.