Researchers have predicted that climate change will have such severe impact on food production that it could lead to 4450 deaths in Myanmar by 2050. The expected toll puts the country at the 10th-worst spot out of 155 nations in terms of deaths per capita.





Worldwide, climate change is predicted to lead to half a million deaths, according to a new study published by The Lancet, a well-known British medical journal. The climate model, put together by researchers at Oxford, found that climate change will adversely affect food production and eventually take a toll on public health as well, as food shortages lead to disease vulnerability. In Myanmar, the shift will mean a serious blow if no measures are taken to mitigate climate change.

“Climate change could kill more than 500,000 adults in 2050 worldwide due to changes in diets and bodyweight from reduced crop productivity,” the research report said.

Southeast Asia is predicted to account for 47 percent of underweight-related deaths in adults by 2050. China, Vietnam and India are expected have the highest rates of deaths per capita in Asia, with China and India accounting for nearly three-quarters of all deaths.

With global food availability reduced, an imbalance in the consumption of fruit and vegetables as well as red meat is expected. If climate change was averted by contrast, 1.9 million deaths would be prevented as food availability increases in conjunction with consumption.

“Changes in food availability and intake also affect dietary and weight-related risk factors such as low fruit and vegetable intake, high red meat consumption and high bodyweight. These all increase the incidence of non-communicable diseases such as heart disease, stroke and cancer, as well as death from those diseases,” said Marco Springmann from the Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food at the University of Oxford, who led the study.

Though it emits very little greenhouse gas – and what is emitted is offset by its forests – Myanmar is wedged between two of the largest carbon emitters in the world, China at the number-one spot and India topped only by the United States. Due to its vulnerable position, Myanmar is predicted to see a change of about 87 deaths per 1 million people as a consequence of climate change, unless proactive measures are taken to protect the agriculture sector.





The consequences of climate change are said to be felt already in Myanmar, mainly in the country’s north and centre. According to the website of the Myanmar Climate Change Alliance, the county’s mean temperature and rainfall have both increased in most areas, though decreased in some areas. The south-west monsoon, according to the alliance, starts later and ends earlier and a rise in sea level has also been measured.

By 2050, the average temperature across Myanmar is expected to rise between 0.8 to 1.4 degrees Celsius, according to Myanmar’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) to Climate Change of 2012. This increase could extend the growing season for some crops, but also could cause an increase of problems related to rain and irrigation.

In 2015, floods devastated much of the country and damaged 773,000 acres of farmland, a consequence of rising water levels, which continues to affect farmers.

According to the Lancet report, “cutting emissions could have substantial health benefits, reducing the number of climate-related deaths by 29-71% depending on the strength of the interventions”.

With the largest standing forests on mainland Southeast Asia, Myanmar currently absorbs more greenhouse gases than it emits. Officials from the Ministry of the Environment told the UN Climate Conference last year that status would continue despite projected urbanisation through prioritising the forestry, agriculture and energy sectors.