It’s game on in Ireland. Parliament has been dissolved and there will be three weeks of intensive campaigning before the electorate get to have their say in general election 2016.

In theory, the Irish government of Fine Gael and Labour should be cruising back to Leinster House with a slender majority. Ireland has an enviable growth rate, it is creating 1000 jobs per week, tax revenues are regularly above estimates and the first tranche of tax cuts have hit people’s payslips. A recipe for straightforward re-election?

Wrong…

Ireland has suffered immensely since the economic crash. Mass emigration, swinging cuts to its public services, tax hikes, the privatisation of public assets and a Dublin centred economic recovery. There is anger and anguish on many doorsteps. The problem with this election is the lack of a credible alternative.

The days of predictable politics in Ireland are over. Fianna Fáil are no longer the electoral monster they were. Gone are the days were over 80% of votes cast went to Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour.

Politics has changed. Ireland has changed.

In Ireland’s proportional representation electoral system many political parties have become strange bedfellows to make the illustrious magic number… The magic number to form a government is 79 seats. So here we are…

General Election Scenarios

Fine Gael/Labour/Independents

Fine Gael are polling at 30% and Labour at 10%, significantly short of a majority. Some commentators say this is flattering Labour. They have actively encouraged their supporters and those who want ‘economic stability’ to be transfer friendly amongst both parties. Projections have the government parties getting 65-73 seats. (So unpredictable is Labour’s outcome projections range from 7-17 seats. A fall from 37 in 2011). They would have to be backed up by independents or a third party. This could be very unstable.

Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil Coalition

This is the only logical outcome in the numbers game. Fine Gael polling at 30% and Fianna Fáil at 20% will accrue somewhere in the region of 80-95 seats. Common sense would have them jumping into government with each other, except they ideologically detest each other. Fianna Fáil have never been a minority party in government, and by doing so in this scenario would cause an existential threat in the form of Sinn Féin who would become the official opposition. Sinn Féin would cannibalise them if this occurred.

Sinn Féin in Government

This is a non-starter. Sinn Féin are playing a two-election strategy here. Polling around 20% they a projected to win between 25-31 seats. They have flat out refused to become a minority government party. Though they could, in theory, form a government with Fine Gael, both parties have categorically ruled this out.

Fine Gael Minority Government

This idea has been banded around by commentators. Fianna Fáil (presuming they are the largest opposition party) will back Fine Gael on a vote by vote basis. Preserving their integrity as an opposition party without conceding ground to Sinn Féin. This scenario is too unstable. Another election would inevitably follow, which would enhance Fine Gael at the expense of Fianna Fáil.

This is the most unpredictable election in generations. Things can change. A week is a long time in politics. Three weeks is an eternity in an Irish election.

Particularly this one…

Author:

Patrick Jay

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Sources:

Graph: tradingeconomics.com

Image: Connaught Tribune

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