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Predicting the weather is hard, but it’s still a breeze compared with the difficulties involved in trying to predict the next twists and turns in Alberta’s political arena.

Who would have guessed in 2018 that Alberta would order the first mandatory oil production cuts in nearly four decades? Or that the province would end up banning wine produced in British Columbia?

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I’m no modern-day Nostradamus, and prognosticating is especially challenging this year considering there is a pair of pivotal elections on the horizon that could change the political landscape immeasurably.

Nonetheless, here’s my best shot at foretelling the year ahead. Some of the following predictions are of the bold variety (otherwise known as wild guesses), while others are far less adventurous.

I won’t make any predictions about the outcome of the provincial election, as that has tended to go poorly for me in the past. Jason Kenney’s United Conservative Party is the heavy favourite at this point. However, I will predict the race will tighten up somewhat and make things interesting before a clear winner emerges, because that is generally what happens during campaigns. The Alberta Party will be more of a factor in the election than the polls would currently indicate. Construction will start at some point this year on the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion. It’s doubtful shovels will be the ground in time to help Premier Rachel Notley during the provincial election, but I’m betting Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be keen to see construction underway in time for his own re-election bid in October. Tension will remain high between Alberta and B.C., where the government of Premier John Horgan will continue efforts to obstruct the Trans Mountain expansion. And if you thought things were unpleasant between Notley and Horgan, expect a whole new level of nasty if Kenney becomes premier. An average of two Albertans will continue to die each day as a result of an opioid-related overdose. At least a couple more supervised consumption sites will open. Political action committees will be a more irritating presence in the election than we’ve seen in the past. With parties subject to a new spending cap of $2 million during the campaign, groups such as Shaping Alberta’s Future and the Alberta Federation of Labour will be running campaigns to reinforce their favoured party’s messaging. Sorry Edmonton, but Calgary will be the most pivotal election battleground. I suspect the NDP vote will remain strong in the capital — though another sweep of the city is unlikely — while the UCP will receive heavy support in the rural areas. That leaves Calgary as the place where the fight for votes will be the most intense. While there was political unity among the parties on cutting oil production to help raise prices and clear out a backlog of stored crude, the decision around when to reduce that curtailment — or end it entirely — will be more controversial. The Liberals will struggle to get anyone elected in Alberta, in both the provincial and federal elections. Randy Boissonnault, the MP for Edmonton Centre, is the most likely Liberal to hang on. Alberta will continue to have no provincial sales tax and no political party will dare advocate for one, even as the province continues to put up big deficits. (I did say some of these were going to be unadventurous predictions.) Calls to end publicly funded Catholic education and faith-based health care will increase in 2019, but neither an NDP or UCP government will want to pick this particular fight. A period of relative peace with labour unions will be tested as new contract talks heat up, no matter which party wins the election. Though there will be more rancour if the UCP is in power. Following the lead of former governments, the NDP will make a handful of funding and infrastructure announcements prior to the election. Opposition parties will call it bribing Albertans with their own money. Bill C-69, the controversial federal legislation to overhaul how energy projects are approved, will be moderately improved by the Senate, but the changes won’t go far enough to satisfy Alberta leaders. Alberta’s third-quarter fiscal update, to be released before or during the election campaign, will be ugly. The update will include the months when Alberta oil prices were in the tank. The government will seriously consider using Bill 12, which allows the province to shut off oil shipments to British Columbia. Albertans will see more of Stephen Harper, who will ramp up his efforts to get the UCP into power. The portrait of the late Jim Prentice will finally be displayed in the legislature next to portraits of Alberta’s other premiers. Notley might want to get hers started now. The cannabis supply issue will be resolved — eventually — allowing the province to again start approving new retail outlets. However, further headaches will emerge next fall when cannabis “edibles” are supposed to become legal.

kgerein@postmedia.com

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