Below are the top 30 of ESPN’s College BPI rankings as of Monday. For an explanation of BPI and how it works, please read this article.

In summary, college BPI is a forward-looking power rating designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. In the simplest terms, BPI answers the question, “If two teams met on a neutral court, which one would win, and by how many points?”

Each team's rating represents its projected point differential against an average Division I team on a neutral court. Subtracting any two teams’ ratings equates to a predicted point margin between those teams (all else equal). BPI looks beyond a team’s win-loss record to determine the strongest teams based on how they won their games, whom those wins came against and where they came. Movement in the rankings depends more on how teams perform relative to expectation rather than winning or losing.

ESPN’s Strength of Record (SOR) ratings, on the other hand, measures team accomplishment by ranking teams based on how difficult their W-L record was to acheive. To view full SOR ratings, full BPI ratings, and other ESPN College Basketball metrics visit www.espn.com/bpi.

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On to the BPI top 30 ...

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-Villanova remains No. 1 overall in BPI despite a two point loss on the road to Marquette (No. 31 in BPI). Villanova also won a narrow contest against Virginia (No. 3 in BPI) on Sunday in just the second matchup between two top-5 BPI teams this season. The Wildcats still sit in the driver’s seat in the Big East with a 96 percent chance to win at least a share of the regular season conference title according to BPI projections.

-The ACC dominates the top of the rankings with four teams in the top six of BPI. Virginia (No. 3 in BPI) and Louisville (No. 4 in BPI) both rose into the top 5 with Virginia’s dominating victory at Notre Dame and Louisville’s wins last week against BPI top 100 opponents by a combined 80 points. The race for the ACC title is turning into a three team contest with Virginia, North Carolina (No. 5 in BPI) and Louisville each with a greater than 20 percent chance of winning at least a share of the title according to BPI projections.

-Gonzaga (No. 10 in BPI) continues to rack up wins and moves into the top 10 of BPI for the first time this season. BPI now gives the Zags a 25 percent chance to finish the regular season 30-0. Gonzaga is favored in every remaining game except at Saint Mary’s (No. 17 in BPI) on February 11th. The only other game Gonzaga has less than a 90 percent chance to win is this Thursday at BYU (No. 67 in BPI) where BPI expects the Zags to win that matchup 77 percent of the time.

-Despite two losses, Florida State (No. 22 in BPI) moves down only slightly as an example of how BPI, as a predictive rating, reacts more strongly to how teams play than the W-L record. The Seminole’s Strength of Record (SOR) ranking, which measures accomplishment, dropped from 5th to 11th after the disappointing week.

-Selection Sunday is just six weeks away and according to SOR the teams currently deserving of a #1 seed are Baylor, Villanova, Kansas, and Gonzaga. All but Gonzaga have played one of the 25 most difficult schedules with two or fewer losses to show for it. The Zags have not played as difficult a schedule but are still ranked fourth in SOR, meaning despite an easier schedule, their 22-0 record is the fourth most impressive in the nation.

-The top game of the week according to ESPN’s matchup quality metric is Duke (No. 6 in BPI) at Notre Dame (No. 18 in BPI) tonight at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN. Duke has had a well-documented whirlwind of a season but had shown flashes of excellence earlier in the year and Coach K is now nearing his return from his medical leave of absence. Like Duke, Notre Dame is trying to get back on track after two consecutive losses last week. While neither team is likely to win a regular season title, both are BPI top 20 teams that have the talent and capability to win the ACC tournament.

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