About Last Week Two Weeks Ago

In the middle of the 4th Century BC, a couple of generations after the Gauls sacked Rome, the Kingdom of Macedonia was on the rise in modern-day Greece. King Philip II had forged the Macedonian Army into one of the most feared fighting forces in the ancient world; it was essentially the army that his son, Alexander the Great, would eventually use to conquer the mighty Achaemenid Persian Empire. Having conquered or subjugated much of the Classical World, Philip turned his attention to the city-state of Sparta.

The Spartans were known to be both ferocious and petulant, and their reputation likely forestalled many would-be invasions. After an escalating war of words, Philip sent a threatening note to the Spartans which said, “you are advised to submit without further delay, for if I bring my army into your land, I will destroy your farms, slay your people, and raze your city.” The Spartans replied simply: “If.” It is unknown whether they were intimidated by this Spartan brashness and bravado, but neither Philip nor his son Alexander ever attempted an invasion of Sparta.

Already some pushing, shoving and yelling. Michigan players didn't get out of the way for MSU walk. Devin Bush screaming in Spartans' faces as they run back to locker room after this. Bush in yellow. pic.twitter.com/Us9GWyVQch — Chris Solari (@chrissolari) October 20, 2018

Fortunately for Ancient Sparta, Don Brown wasn’t born for another 24 centuries.

The Road Ahead

Penn State (6-2, 3-2 B1G)

Last week: Beat Iowa, 30-24

Recap:

This was performance art, and no matter how I try, I won’t be able to convey the majesty with words. Like the Grand Canyon, if one could somehow fumble the Grand Canyon. It was #M00N, directed by Michael Bay. It was Alice in Wonderland, but less logical. It was the Total Eclipse of the Heart music video with a scoreboard.

It was awesome.

Here is a (non-inclusive) list of things that happened:

Penn State's faint Big Ten East hopes remain alive for another week. But at what cost to the game of football? It's too soon to tell.

This team is as frightening as: Unexpected football to the groin.

You think you’re ready for it, and you think you can probably defend against it. But. Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: KJ Hamler. He had another big return this week, running one back 67 yards to the Iowa 31 immediately after a pick six. He’s second in the Big Ten in kickoff return average, and that is in addition to his 18.4 yards per catch as a receiver.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Over the last three weeks, Trace McSorely is averaging 6.2 yards per pass attempt and 4.7 yards per carry. Plus, he tweaked his knee last week and briefly left the game, so he might be playing… sorely.

When they play Michigan: This game sets the stakes for The Game. Lose, and The Game still probably decides the winner of the Big Ten East. But win, and… well, we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.

Next week: at Michigan, 3:45 p.m., ESPN (PSU +10.5)

[AFTER THE JUMP: A detailed discussion of Rutger's struggles.]

Rutger (don't ask)

Last week: Bye

Recap: No demeaning recap. Bye.

This team is as frightening as: A stapler. Fear Level = 1

Michigan should worry about: Filing cabinet.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Post-it notes.

When they play Michigan: No, YOU’RE just looking around my office and naming things you see.

Next week: @ Wisconsin, noon, BTN (Rutger +28)

Indiana (4-4, 1-4 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Minnesota, 38-31

Recap: Indiana has long-since mastered the “get blown out,” and “lose a stupid heartbreaker” introductory courses, and the more advanced “turn a close game into a blowout” course. It appears they have now moved on to the much more challenging “get blown out and still lose a heartbreaker” graduate-level classes.

First, the blowout. Indiana trailed winless-in-the-Big-Ten-and-without-their-starting-quarterback-or-leading-rusher Minnesota 31-9 to start the fourth quarter. Indiana allowed Tanner Morgan, in his first career start, to throw for 302 yards at 12.6 yards per attempt, as the Gophers racked up their best offensive yards-per-play performance (Not-against-Mike-Riley Division) in more than three years. They were being outgained 377-219.

Then, the heartbreak. Indiana put together three touchdown drives and connected on two of three 2-point conversions to tie the game at 31. They then forced a Minnesota three-and-out, and had the ball with 3:25 to go, and a chance to pull off the win. And then they went three-and-out themselves, and allowed a 67-yard Tyler Johnson touchdown on the next play, and then fumbled on the play after that.

Congratulations, Indiana. You scaled the underwater mountain, took a long, deep breath of fresh air, then cannonballed back in while holding an actual cannonball.

This team is as frightening as: Oregon Trail. Every journey is different, and you never know exactly what fate has in store… but whether it is cholera, typhoid, snakebite, or that dang river, your ass ain’t making it to the end. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Both Luke Timian and De'Angelo “Whop “WHOP”” Philyor are back in the lineup after missing time to injury.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: This doesn’t feel like the team that breaks the 22-in-a-row, 37-of-38 streak Michigan has going.

When they play Michigan: I’m genuinely, morbidly curious how Indiana will lose this game.

Next week: Bye

Ohio State (7-1, 4-1 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Recap: No recap. Bye.

This team is as frightening as: The Hindenburg. Large, intimidating, moves almost exclusively through the air, held aloft by an unstable gasbag. Been riding for a fall for quite some time. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: Losing.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan just demolished the team that just beat the team that just boat raced Ohio State. So we’ve got THAT going for us.

When they play Michigan: We’ll see after this week.

Next week: vs. Nebraska, noon, FOX (OSU -18)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Notre Dame (8-0)

Last week: Won at Navy, 44-22

Recap: Any time you can turn a service academy game into a no-doubter by halftime, you take that and run with it. Well, Notre Dame led 27-0 at the half, as they scored four touchdowns on their six first half drives.

The truly funny thing is that Notre Dame’s schedule, which one would have thought would have been a huge plus with the College Football Playoff committee, might be the anchor that keeps them out. Just two years ago, six of the teams on their 2018 schedule were in the S&P+ top-25: Michigan (3), Florida State (6), USC (9), Virginia Tech (17), Pitt (20), and Stanford (23). This year, only one of those teams is ranked higher than #39.

Notre Dame was #4 in the initial playoff rankings this week, but if you look their remaining schedule, one slip-up will very likely knock them out of the playoff picture.

Next week: @ Big Ten West Leader Northwestern, 7:15 p.m., ESPN (ND -9.5)

Western Michigan (6-3, 4-1 MAC)

Last week: Lost to Toledo, 51-24

Recap: Our previous optimism for Western Michigan had an underlying assumption: that Jon Wassink stayed healthy. Well, Wassink left this game in the first quarter with an ankle injury, and is reportedly done for the year. Freshman backup Kaleb Eleby performed well (23/28, 293 yards, 10.5 YPA, 2 TDs), but Toledo ran for 268 yards at 7.7 YPC, and put the game away in the third quarter with three consecutive touchdowns.

Western still makes the MAC Championship game if they can string together wins over Ohio, Ball State, and Northern Illinois, but S&P+ puts that likelihood at a little under 19%. And that is before you account for the loss of their veteran starting quarterback. And, as a reminder, Western lost three of their last 4 games after they lost Wassink for the year.

Next week: vs. Ohio, 7:00 p.m. Thursday, ESPNU (WMU +2.5)

SMU (3-5, 2-2 AAC)

Last week: Lost to Cincinnati, 26-20 (OT)

Recap: What an unexpected shot in the nuts.

SMU was an 8-point home underdog, but with under 2 minutes left, SMU had a 3-point lead and the ball with a fresh set of downs. Cincinnati held them to a 3-and-out, drove the field with no timeouts, and then somehow convinced this kick go through the uprights:

Then, in overtime, Ben Hicks had a James Proche open on a slant on 3rd and 2. Proche had a step, and if he doesn’t score he at least sets up a first and goal. But Hicks threw late and behind Proche, and a Bearcat picked it off for a walk-off pick-6.

Next week: vs. Houston, 7:00 p.m., ESPNU (SMU +13.5)

Nebraska (2-6, 1-4 B1G)

Last week: Beat Bethune-Cookman, 45-9

Recap: Bethune-Cookman’s band is awesome.

Bethune Cookman’s band wasn’t at Nebraska on Saturday.

Next week: @ Ohio State, noon, FOX (NEB +18)

Northwestern (5-3, 5-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Wisconsin, 31-17

Recap: With a team like Northwestern, deciding what kind of team they are sometimes feels like a game of Battleship. You try to narrow down, though individual pieces of data, what they are doing. With Maryland it took a few weeks to realize that they grouped all of their ships in one spot. Ohio State skillfully arranged their ships, and if you guess a location that should be a “hit,” they very unsubtly move the ship and accuse you of bias for saying something. For Rutger, it was evident by week 3 that they had swallowed the ships and were trying desperately to remove a peg from their nose.

With Northwestern, I thought we had them figured out. D3 was a hit. D5 was a hit. So this week, we all confidently declared “D4.” To which Northwestern responded “WILDCARD, BITCHES” and jumped out of the back of the suddenly-careening car.

A week ago, Northwestern trailed Rutger for 27 minutes, and ended up winning by 3. Today, they are comfortably in the driver’s seat in the Big Ten West. Iowa, Purdue, and Wisconsin each have two Big Ten losses, and Northwestern holds the tiebreaker over Purdue and Wisconsin. If Northwestern can beat Iowa next week, they’re basically a lock. If they lose to Iowa but beat Illinois and Minnesota, and Iowa loses to Purdue, Illinois or Nebraska, Northwestern wins the West. But there is still a chance that the Big Ten West takes on its true final form:

Northwestern loses out, dropping games to Notre Dame, Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois. That puts them a 5-7 overall and 5-4 in the Big Ten. Wisconsin and Purdue, and Iowa each drop at least two more games. Northwestern somehow emerges from the jumbled mass of 5-4 teams to claim the title (or, if Iowa loses all three non-Northwestern games, Northwestern claims the title on head-to-head comparisons).

That would mean Northwestern would be playing in the Big Ten Championship Game, and ***would need to win that game to be bowl-eligible***. In fact, The Mathlete informs me there are 19 scenarios in which this could happen, before you even get into some of those messy multi-team tiebreakers.

We all define “the dream” in our own ways… but this is the dream.

Next week: vs. Notre Dame, 7:15 p.m., ESPN (NW +9.5)

Maryland (5-3, 3-2 B1G)

Last week: Beat Illinois, 63-33

Him? (Paul Sherman)

Recap: DJ Durkin’s tenure as leader of the Maryland football program ended on August 11, 2018. But the Maryland Board of Regents decided that he should keep the title of “Head Coach” for one more day. Because reasons.

Durkin should have been fired. And it probably should have happened months ago. But the fact that it hadn’t happened yet didn’t bother me all that much. After all, the remainder was mostly a matter of terms and timing. Durkin had been in quarantine for eleven weeks, deposed in exile from the body politic he formerly ruled with either an iron fist or an oversized clown hand. He couldn’t do any more harm, at least directly. His existence loomed in the background, but only as something that still needed to be disposed of when the time was right. The harm was done. All that was left was to say the right words, bow to the appropriate, solemn depth, and grimly hit the “launch box into goddamn space” button.

And then these shitgibbons just… opened the box.

Beyond the indecency of it, I am struck by the sheer, awesome stupidity of this move. The fact that they reversed themselves so quickly suggests that they were surprised that it did not go over well. What did they think was going to happen? In the last three months, did they talk to, say, ANYONE ANYWHERE ABOUT THIS? And then they tried to un-poop in the punchbowl. I'm sure that'll work, fellas.

It’s baffling. Durkin was 10-15 was a head coach. And I do not say this to suggest that a better record would justify trying to keep him… but at least it would have EXPLAINED it. When Ohio State slapped Urban Meyer on the wrist, everyone understood why. It was distasteful, but the motivations made sense. “Win at all costs,” while reprehensible, is at least a thing. “Mediocre at all costs” isn’t. These guys went all in to defend a box of macaroni and cheese. Not Kraft. The generic kind. And now, as a result, Maryland gets tagged with the downsides of keeping him AND the downsides of firing him. Also, they're buying him out for a cool $5.5 Million. How are you in charge of things. How.

…

From a purely football standpoint, we discussed last week about Maryland’s astonishing binary nature: some weeks they opt to football, and some weeks they opt to not football so much. Well, they footballed this week. They footballed good. Maryland put up 712 yards at 10.3 yards per play, which I believe is the highest conference total for any Big Ten team since Wisconsin put 10.4 yards per play on Indiana in 2014. Sophomore running back Javon Leake rushed 5 times for 140 yards and 3 touchdowns, and added a 97-yard kickoff return touchdown. On the year, he has 12 carries for 206 yards and 5 touchdowns. Still, it remains to be seen how Maryland’s players react to [/gestures wildly] all this.

Next week: vs. Michigan State, noon, ESPN2 (MD +2)

Wisconsin (5-3, 3-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Northwestern, 31-17

Recap: Imagine you’re Paul Chryst. You’re playing on the road with your backup quarterback. You have the best offensive line north of the state of Alabama. You have Jonathan Taylor. What should you do? If your answer is “throw the ball more than you have thrown the ball in any game this season,” you do a damn fine Paul Chryst impression.

To say the Badgers got run out of the building isn’t quite accurate. Northwestern politely walked them out of the building. The Wildcats put up fewer than 350 total yards at 4.4 yards per play, and still managed to build a 31-10. Jonathan Taylor got 9 touches on Wisconsin’s 3 first-quarter drives (8 carries, 1 catch), and then had 3 touches the entire rest of the game. True, he fumbled twice, but short of hitting Bucky with a folding chair, I’m not sure there is anything Taylor could do that would justify that level of non-involvement in this situation.

If I told you before the season that the first College Football Playoff rankings would not include Wisconsin, you would probably have looked at me with a really confused stare for about 25 seconds, then punted. Because you are presumably still Paul Chryst. But Wisconsin started the year at #4 in the AP Top 25, and despite playing only two teams in the S&P Top 50 since then (and despite WINNING one of those two games), the Badgers find themselves out of the initial CFP rankings. In their place are such luminaries as Syracuse, Boston College, Iowa State, Fresno State, and Virginia. They also find themselves on the brink of elimination from the Big Ten West race, when they seemed to have it wrapped up on, like, Groundhog Day.

Next week: vs. Rutger, noon, BTN (WIS -28)

Michigan State (5-3, 3-2 B1G)

Last week: Beat Purdue, 23-13

Recap: Quite the bounce-back for Michigan State, as they beat the best team in the Big Ten with a backup quarterback. Rocky Lombardi filled in for the injured Brian Lewerke, and threw for 318 yards at 6.9 yards per attempt with two TDs. And if you were wondering how people in East Lansing feel about Michigan State’s offense these days, 6.9 yards per attempt against Purdue is enough to spark talk of a quarterback controversy among people who get paid to use words for a living.

Michigan State’s running game failed to develop once again, as Purdue held them to 2.7 yards per carry. LJ Scott’s return has given Michigan State exactly as much as you would have expected. In fact, his Curious Case of Benjamin ButWhyCan’tIDriveOnTheSidewalk disease seems to be accelerating:

LJ Scott in 2016: 5.4 YPC

LJ Scott in 2017: 4.47 YPC

LJ Scott in 2018 (pre-injury): 3.43 YPC

LJ Scott in 2018 (since return): 3.08 YPC

As a team, Michigan State has yet to exceed 4.0 yards per carry, a distinction shared by only one other Power 5 team: Northwestern. BIG TEN!

Defensively, Michigan State did a very nice job defending Rondale Moore, holding him to only 6.7 yards per catch on his 11 catches. Justin Layne was forced into action as a legitimate two-way player, getting significant run at wide receiver.

Next week: @ Maryland, noon, ESPN2 (MSU -2)