Well, that time of year is coming up, when the Anglophone press re-discovers all over again that it can get quite cold in Russia during the winter months. But hold! I have something a little more interesting to report.

According to TASS, Russian meteorologists think the coming winter will be a little special. For a start, it is forecast to be much colder than usual. Indeed, in some parts of the vast land of Russia, winter has already started -- on the Yamal peninsula in north-western Siberia, temperatures fell to -18 degrees Celsius during some mid-October nights. Nor will this be a once-off. We all know about global warming (except in Florida), but according to Vladimir Melnikov, of the Russian Academy of Sciences, this hard winter may mark the beginning of a 60-year "cold cycle".

Since they are part of the same land mass, as in Russia, so in Ukraine. While the winter in Ukraine is milder than most parts of Russia, nevertheless, it is still cold. And this one promises to be harder than normal.

How are Ukrainian building to be heated in such weather? After all, the Russians have more than enough gas to keep them warm as toast throughout the cold months. The Ukrainians have no gas of their own: they must buy gas -- from Russia.

Gas supplies to Ukraine from Russia have been off and on throughout the year, simply because of Ukraine's unwillingness, or inability, to keep up with payments. The tap was turned on again as recently as the twelfth of this month, when Russian Gazprom and Ukrainian Naftogaz managed to reach agreement. Naftogaz paid $234 million in advance for October's supply, which will cost $500 million in total, and Gazprom reduced their price from $252 to $232 per 1,000 cubic metres. With $500 million worth of help from the EU, Naftogas plans to store 2 billion cubic metres of gas for use in the coming winter. However, Gazprom has warned that this will not be enough for the whole winter. And if Melnikov's forecast proves accurate, Gazprom may well be proved right.

So what happens then? A thorny question which doesn't appear to have occurred to Western commentators, who have indeed of late gone rather quiet on the subject of Ukraine. Fair weather friends indeed.