We already know what happens when Social Distancing isn’t taken seriously.

Americans don’t seem to be doing well with social distancing. During a period in which Ireland has canceled its St. Patricks Day Parade, and large portions of Europe are on lockdown, hundreds of thousands of Americans are currently bar crawling in almost every major U.S. city. All one needs do is to search twitter for “full bar,” and a litany of pictures appear with lines running outside as excited groups of Millenials wait to party at their favorite restaurants. Many seem to be operating under the mistaken belief that they suffer no risk from COVID-19; this couldn’t be further from the case.

“We have had a much worse response than Iran, than Italy, than China and South Korea.” — Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute.

The United States is not unique, and we appear to be on a significantly worse track than almost any other major country which has encountered COVID-19. We have just recently started testing on a large scale, and what we have found so far has been terrifying. Out of around 15,000 tests run over 3,000 people are positive, and the U.S. currently stands at 60 deaths. A John Hopkins professor estimates we may already have up to 500,000 people infected. When Italy initially discovered their first 100 cases, they locked down over 50,000 people. In contrast, Seattle currently has bars, movie theatres, and restaurants open for business even as they report more than 100 new infections every day.

Even now, thousands of travelers are stuck in massive lines to get through U.S. customs as many attempts to come back from the U.K. and Ireland before the latest travel ban takes effect. These massive congregations further the spread of the virus as one infected person in a tightly packed crowd can potentially infect dozens or even potentially hundreds. The inept federal, state, and local response to COVID-19 is beyond comprehension. The very measures we are taking to prevent the spread of illness are hastening it instead.

In my first article, I said we were sleepwalking towards disaster. That statement no longer holds. We are currently sprinting towards it with little regard for the fallout that will affect our hospitals, families, senior citizens, and retirement communities. If we continue at the current pace, we can expect an outcome worse than that of Wuhan, Italy, Spain, France, or even Iran. As the virus continues to spread through the community rapidly, we will quickly enter uncontrollable exponential growth. The longer we wait, the worse the effect will be on the economy, but more importantly the more families will be shattered and the more hospitals will be overrun with the extremely sick.

“Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after will seem inadequate.” — Michael Leavitt, former HHS Secretary under President George W. Bush

We know that COVID-19 can kill the young; we also know that in some cases, it may result in permanent lung scarring. But by going out, people are not just risking their health and wellbeing. They also risk that of their parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, and innumerable strangers who they may indriectly infect as the chain of infection grows. It is too late for the U.S. to avert disaster, but we can still mitigate the worst of it. State and Local Governments must step in and implement mandatory quarantines and extreme social distancing measures, or we risk a tragedy of astronomical proportions.