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Leaving the EU will cost Britain £430billion over five years if no deal is done, research suggests.

Even a “soft” Norway-style Brexit could cost the ­country £235billion – sparking serious fears for the economy.

The analysis, seen by the Liberal Democrats, show all parts of the UK would be hit – from ­City of London financiers to industries in the regions.

Lib Dem leader Sir Vince Cable said: “These figures are a real indictment of the Government’s strategy. David Davis is still talking up the possibility of a no-deal Brexit, yet these figures suggest it would cost Britain a ruinous £430billion over five years. Even a relatively soft Brexit could cost £235billion.”

(Image: REUTERS)

The analysis came from the London Schools of Economics Centre for Economic Performance.

It found if the UK exits the EU in March 2019 without a trade deal, its economic output in the following five years would be down 5.3 per cent, equivalent to £430billion.

A Norway-style agreement, with full single market access, would still result in a reduction to output of 2.9 per cent – or £235billion.In a no-deal scenario, London would lose six per cent, or £115billion.

It would cost Leeds ­£6billion, Aberdeen and Bristol £4billion and Swindon £2billion.

(Image: REUTERS)

Sector analysis shows ­financial services would take a £81billion hit, real estate £65billion and chemical ­producers £20billion.

Sir Vince added: “These are all ­estimates and, naturally, should be ­treated with caution. But the Government refuses to publish its own projections, so this is the best guide we have. The study suggests no deal would be devastating. The Government must respond by ruling out a no-deal to end uncertainty and confirm its commitment to stay in the single market and customs union.”

Meanwhile, EU bosses have indicated the UK could secure a Brexit deal as early as Christmas – but it would need to pay £48billion first.

One senior diplomat said Brussels would accept £30billion – on top of the £18billion promised for the 2019-2021 Brexit transition period.