Terry McAuliffe says there is a federal right to same-sex marriage, the authors write. Va.: Gay marriage ground zero?

Events are converging to make Virginia ground zero in the battle over same-sex marriage this year.

For the first time in southern political history, Democrats will nominate a gubernatorial candidate - Terry McAuliffe - who says there is a federal constitutional right to same-sex marriage. Every southern state has a constitutional amendment prohibiting same-sex marriage. McAuliffe’s position would mean all such laws are illegal under the Constitution.


McAauliffe held the opposite view in 2009 during a losing race for governor. But this reversal by the former chairman of the Democratic National Committee is a de facto proxy for his party’s rapid shift on this controversial issue. President Barack Obama, former President Bill Clinton, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Virginia Sens. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine have all had a similar reversal in recent months.

Virginia passed its same-sex marriage ban by a significant majority in 2006. The 2013 Republican gubernatorial candidate - Ken Cuccinelli – helped lead the winning side. As the state’s Attorney General, he has been a steadfast backer of the law, which also denies recognition to same-sex marriages legally performed in other states.

Since Virginia seems certain to be the lone competitive contest for governor this year, exploiting the contrast will prove irresistible to the media - especially the national press.

McAuliffe and the Democratic candidate for Attorney General will pledge to use the power of their offices to achieve what they regard as equality for same-sex couples. Cuccinelli and the Republican candidate for Attorney General will counter-pledge to use the power of their offices to protect traditional marriage. Democratic activists will accuse the GOP ticket of being “unreconstructed conservative bigots.” Republican activists will counter by charging Democrats with the “liberal homosexual agenda.”

Hot button social issues did admittedly dominate Virginia gubernatorial elections during the segregationist era. But a new competitive two-party system emerged in 1977. Since then, “bread and butter” issues – budget, crime, economic growth, education, jobs, spending and taxes, transportation – have risen to the fore. The last time a social issue decided a gubernatorial election was in 1989. An unexpected Supreme Court decision in late June of that year created confusion concerning a state’s legal right to restrict abortion. The 5-4 ruling forced the gubernatorial candidates to recalibrate their strategies. Abortion became the marquee substantive issue. Democrat Doug Wilder, a big underdog, used his opponent’s opposition to abortion even in the cases of rape or incest to win the closest gubernatorial election in Virginia history.

Now in 2013, the Supreme Court is again poised to issue a potentially explosive mid-campaign ruling, this time on same-sex marriage. We expect the decision to excite and enrage at the same time, similar to the swirling dynamics that reshuffled the campaign deck in 1989.

Virginia politics was previously roiled the last time the Supreme Court decided a major marriage equality case. For years, conservative governors and attorneys general had strongly defended the state’s ban on interracial marriages. But after a long court battle, a 1967 Supreme Court decision, Loving v. Virginia, overruled the Commonwealth’s prohibition. Richard and Mildred Loving had been criminally convicted under the Virginia’s “antimiscegenation” statute. In one of the most iconic moments in judicial history, Bernie Cohen, the lawyer for the couple, read to the High Court this message from Mr. Loving: “Mr. Cohen, tell the Court I love my wife, and it is just unfair that I can’t live with her in Virginia.”

Two years later, Virginia elected its first Republican governor ever.

After the 2006 vote approving Virginia’s same–sex marriage ban, the issue retreated to the back political burner. Democratic Govs. Warner and Kaine as well as then presidential candidate Obama all considered the constitutional right of Virginia to define marriage as well-settled.

But current polls suggest Virginians may now favor same-sex marriages. Republicans charge Democrats with being political opportunists without any real constitutional principles. Democrats reject this label, declaring their change sincere, consistent with the 14th Amendment to the Constitution.

Same-sex marriage backers know they would greatly advance their cause with their first win ever in a Southern state. Their opponents likewise understand the potential domino effect of losing in a conservative state that only 7 years ago strongly rejected same-same marriage.

Welcome to the new ground zero in the fight over same-sex marriage.

Paul Goldman is former chair of the Virginia Democratic Party. Mark J. Rozell is professor of public policy at George Mason University.