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One might hope we were a bit surer about the fate of spilled oil before we dismiss concerns around oil spills in Canada. There’s been no shortage of studies on the subject. And yet even the most recent and rigorous science can’t tell us for certain what would happen if a spill occurred. One mega-analysis of more than 9,000 papers on oil and the environment concluded that not enough is known about the impact oilsands bitumen could have on ocean plants and animals to assess the risks of moving it through marine environments. According to a report on the analysis, “one of the few studies that exist found that bitumen tends to float on sea water until it weathers and churns together with sand, at which point it sinks.” But the scientists of the analysis also note “much publicized research was conducted in a lab, not the ocean.”

But perhaps their most troubling finding was that cumulative effects have been almost completely ignored. Less than one per cent of more than 5,500 studies examined considered the impact of more than one stressor.

As many who live, work and play on the B.C. coast know, these waters already face an increasingly risky and uncertain future. The province’s iconic wild salmon are rarely out of the news with respect to climate change, introduced viruses, parasites, overfishing, habitat loss and other threats. Many of the Fraser River’s once-mighty sockeye populations are now listed as endangered. As Chinook stocks wither, orcas follow suit. Intensified by climate change, droughts, warming waters and water shortages are increasingly common threats. Plastics and other marine pollutants choke marine life and threaten our health. Now add the burden of escaped oil to this list. Can the coast handle such pressure?