What is a no-deal Brexit? Consequences of the UK leaving the EU without a deal Boris Johnson says he has a new deal but he still needs to get the support of MPs

The Prime Minister has struck a “great new deal” with Brussels just two weeks before the Brexit deadline of 31 October.

But it remains to be seen whether Boris Johnson can get Parliament on board to pass the deal. The DUP, his key ally, has said it is not behind the plan.

Attempting to persuade MPs, Mr Johnson said the deal allowed the UK to leave the EU bloc “whole and entire” and that it protected the Irish peace process.

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“I hope very much now… that my fellow MPs in Westminster do now come together to get Brexit done, to get this excellent deal over the line and deliver Brexit without any more delay,” he said.

MPs will debate and vote on whether to accept the deal on Saturday, during a special sitting in the House of Commons. Opposition leaders have indicated they will not throw their weight behind it without a second referendum on Brexit.

If the deal is rejected, attention will turn to whether Mr Johnson will ask the EU for a Brexit delay, as he is compelled to do under legislation. The Benn Act blocks Britain leaving the EU without a deal on 31 October but Mr Johnson seems intent on exiting on that date, deal or no deal.

On Thursday President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker ruled out an extension, saying: “If we have a deal, we have a deal and there is not need for prolongation.”

Mr Juncker said Mr Johnson had to ensure the deal passed “the hurdles of Westminster,” adding: “I will have to make sure it can pass the hurdles of the European Parliament, that’s all.”

What is a ‘no deal’ Brexit?

A “no-deal” Brexit does what it says on the tin. It means the UK and the EU have been unable to reach an agreement on the terms of Britain’s withdrawal from the bloc.

If this is the case, there will be no transition period and Britain immediately leaves the single market and customs union, as well as other EU institutions.

Consumers, businesses and public bodies would have to respond immediately to the changes.

“The UK would leave the EU and everything associated with that would come to an end,” according to Dr Simon Usherwood, a reader in politics at the University of Surrey. “[A no deal] doesn’t stop the UK leaving but it means there is absolutely no clarity about what happens.”

While it is a possibility, in reality neither the UK nor the EU favours a no deal because it signals a poor political relationship, he added.

One of the key issues with a no deal scenario is the uncertainty it would mean for life and work in Britain.

So what would actually happen with no deal?

These are just some of the consequences:

Trade

The UK would revert to World Trade Organization rules on trade. While Britain would no longer be bound by EU rules, it would have to face the EU’s external tariffs. The price of imported goods in shops for Britons could go up as a result.

Manufacturers could move their operations to the EU to avoid delays in components coming across the border.

People

The UK would be free to set its own controls on immigration by EU nationals and the bloc could do the same for Britons.

EU nationals living in Britain can apply for settled status to stay even in the event of a no-deal Brexit. British nationals living abroad are advised to go through a similar process in their country of residence.

There could be long delays at borders if passport and customs checks are heightened.

And there are concerns that the price of food could rise, and that there could be shortages of items, including medicines.

Laws

Britain would no longer have to adhere to the rulings of the European Court of Justice but it would be bound to the European Court of Human Rights, a non-EU body.

Money

The Government would not have to pay billions into the EU budget.

However Britain would lose out on some EU subsidies – the Common Agricultural Policy gave financial support worth £3.5bn to farmers in 2018.

The Irish border

The issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic would remain unresolved. While physical infrastructure has been vetoed, the border would become an external frontier for the EU in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

But the UK Government has said it would aim to avoid a hard border and, for a temporary period, there would be no new tariffs on goods crossing the border from Ireland into Northern Ireland.

But would Britain be able to broker trade agreements with other countries?

A no-deal Brexit means Britain could implement trade deals with other countries as soon as they are ready, and not have to wait for the transition period to be over.

But deals take years, not months or weeks, to broker.

“It’s worth making the point that trade deals are about agreements with states. If the UK left without a deal showing it was unable to have constructive conversations with close trading partners [the EU], it would not be a great incentive for third parties,” says Dr Usherwood.

How did we get here?

There was a long-standing impasse between Britain and the EU over certain, key Brexit issues, which made a no deal very likely.

Former prime minister Theresa May’s initial Chequers plan – which split the Tory Party – was dismissed by EU leaders, who said it “will not work”. In response, the Prime Minister insisted the EU brings fresh proposals for the Irish border and trade to the table.

Then after months of negotiations, Mrs May announced she had brokered a draft deal that offered a future relationship with “a breadth and depth of co-operation beyond anything the EU has agreed with any other country”.

“We can choose to leave with no deal, we can risk no Brexit at all, or we can choose to unite and support the best deal that can be negotiated,” she said.

However the proposed deal was widely criticised across the parties.

The Government began ramping up preparations for a no deal but Downing Street said the “top priority” was to deliver Brexit under the terms of the deal struck by Mrs May.

Her proposed Brexit deal was rejected by Parliament twice. And the Withdrawal Agreement document – which forms part of the deal – was also rejected.

To avoid a no deal exit on 12 April, Mrs May asked the EU to delay Brexit until 30 June. This was rejected and instead EU leaders granted an extension until the end of October to allow the UK to “find the best possible solution”.

“Please do not waste this time,” said European Council President Donald Tusk.

But the election of Mr Johnson, a staunch Brexiteer, as Prime Minister complicated the withdrawal process, leaving the possibility of a no deal on the table.

Before MPs intervened to introduce a law blocking a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, Mr Johnson had said Britain would leave on that date regardless of whether or not a deal had been secured.

Time had been running out for both sides to agree on a deal.

Now that one has been reached, Mr Johnson must secure the backing of MPs to ensure Britain can leave the bloc on time.

Brexit… in brief

Remind yourself of what all the Brexit jargon means… and click the links to read more.

The single market is the free movement of movement of people, goods and services. A customs union is a bloc’s trade and tax agreement – normally free trade within members with fixed export duties with third parties

A soft Brexitwould leave the UK closely aligned with the EU, with access to the single market and minimal impact on business. A hard Brexitwould take the UK completely out of all EU agreements.

A“no deal” Brexit does what it says on the tin. It means the UK and the EU would be unable to reach a agreement and there would be no transition period(or ‘implementation period’).

The notorious sticking point is the Irish ‘backstop’– the insurance plan for avoiding a hard border in Northern Ireland. One proposed solution has been a ‘Canada-style’ agreement which removes most EU restrictions but would not totally abolish the need for a hard border. Other suggestions have included the ‘Max fac’ plan which would use technology to electronically track goods crossing the border to prevent the need for border checks.

Got that? Okay, now here is what Mrs May’s Brexit deal contains and the next battle she faces is it being passed through Parliament and the row over what consists of a ‘meaningful vote’ which would give MP’s asay on the final deal.

Meanwhile she has to contend with Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn who is trying to push for his own ‘jobs-first Brexit’ deal AND MPs across all parties who have joined the campaign for a People’s Vote – or second Brexit referendum.

Simple…?

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Read more on Brexit:

The eight different Brexit scenarios that could happen now

Butter, cheese, and yoghurt could be a lot more expensive after Brexit

The Government’s Brexit white paper was translated into German so badly it barely makes sense in parts

Theresa May survives tumultuous two weeks to see off Tory threats to oust her