As we get ready to launch into the 2017 NFL season the prediction machines will be flowing very strongly. Training camps break for all teams by the end of this week so the talking heads are out in force. Who has the best defense? Who is the best player? Who will win the Super Bowl?

Last season we ran an analysis to try and determine precisely which statistics matter the most. Everyone and their grandmother has an opinion but accuracy is worth a lot more than random bloviating on social media. If life were up to Twitter there would be about a billion geniuses walking around.

So, for example, how do we determine which team has the best defense in the league or which team make up the top defenses in the NFL? For as long as we can remember seemingly everyone would point to points allowed per game and use that statistic to anoint the King. The problem is that points allowed per game, like many statistics, can be both affirming and misleading. Yes, if a team allows the lowest amount of points in the league it is entirely plausible that it has an effective defense. However, that might not make that team the BEST defense. Points allowed can be influenced in a positive way by the style of play of the same team’s offense (slow it down, dink and dunk, burn the clock, punt a lot pinning teams deep). Points allowed per game can also be influenced negatively for teams that frankly are very good overall. These teams might be playing with big leads frequently and resting some players late in games thud leading to “easy points” scored by the opposition.

Let’s see if we can cut through some of the fluff and misdirection in 2017 and track what really matters.

Here are some results for last season in the NFL using four key statistical categories that we selected. We looked at the teams that made the playoffs to isolate the best teams in the league and see the differences among and between them. Now let’s take a look at the average of all four categories. Remember, the lower the number the better for your team’s DEFENSIVE productivity.

Total Rankings (Average of four Categories) Scoring D Sacks Passes D Opp Scoring Eff Average Team NFL Rank NFL Rank NFL Rank NFL Rank Raw Number Patriots 1 18 18 1 9.5 Dolphins 18 21 12 14 16.25 Steelers 10 11 9 12 10.5 Texans 11 24 23 7 16.25 Raiders 20 32 17 17 21.5 Chiefs 7 28 1 8 11 Cowboys 5 13 27 15 15 Giants 2 14 2 5 5.75 Packers 21 7 3 27 14.5 Lions 13 30 28 26 24.25 Falcons 27 16 4 23 17.5 Seahawks 3 4 20 3 7.5

Here are the Top 5 Defensive Teams in the NFL among playoff teams based on this analysis:

New York Giants

Seattle Seahawks

New England Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers

Kansas City Chiefs

So that was last year. Everyone can see the Kansas City Chiefs were very stingy in terms of points allowed per game total, but that may have had quite a bit to do with their style of play. The Chiefs wanted to win games 16-10. They ran a dink and dunk offense and were happy to kill the clock and punt from midfield. Near the top in points but not best overall.

There are very specific reasons why we are using these statistics in particular. Take sacks for example. The NFL is a pass happy league and the rules and officiating reflect that. We can also look at QB pressures. There are QBs (generally the ones leading teams into the playoffs) that will absolutely torch a defense if they have all day to sit back there and go through their progressions. Sacks are very important and reflective of how much pressure you get on a QB and hence how good you are at keeping the team out of the endzone.

Passes defensed are similar. Interceptions are very important for sure. However, there is a bit of luck involved with interceptions in terms of the ball bouncing your way. This is not to say that INTs are misleading but only to say that Passes Defensed are a better overall assessment. There are so many passes attempted in the modern NFL it is crucial to see how a defense creates pressure and covers receivers. Passes Defensed can show you this.

Opponent Scoring Efficiency could end up being the best defensive statistic overall. We will have to see how it shakes up over time. This stat is showing you how good your defense is at getting off the field without giving up points. That is the name of the game after all. It doesn’t matter if the offense takes over after a turnover on the 30 yard line or if pinned deep back inside their own ten yard line. This statistic will show you how well your defense refuses to give up points regardless of the circumstances.

It should be another great NFL season. Let’s see how things go and enjoy the action!

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