After the events of 2016, foreseeing the year ahead may be foolhardy. Best perhaps to abandon the task of objective prediction in favour of the search for hope. Is there any chance that those who accept complexity rather than demand false certainty, that those who search for solutions not for blame, could get their act together?

Could 2017 be the year of the moderate insurgency?

Such an insurgency needs help from its enemies. Expect “betrayal” to be on many lips as the year unfolds. As the complexity and cost of Brexit becomes clearer, and with the rest of Europe demanding a high price for access to the single market, many who voted out with high hopes will be dismayed. On the Leave side, an acrimonious split will grow between realists willing to negotiate the terms of a qualified departure, and fundamentalists who see a complete rupture from the European mainstream as the path to national resurgence.

In the US, Donald Trump’s more radical supporters are already protesting against the abandonment of some of his more wacky campaign promises. Trump’s presidency will vividly demonstrate the gap between populism’s strengths as a campaigning tool and its inadequacies as a method of democratic governance. As the new president’s erratic behaviour, incoherent policy programme and tendency to fall out with anyone who stands up to him moves from being a novelty to a national liability, the Republicans will be deeply split over how to respond to Democratic resurgence ahead of the 2018 midterms.

America’s travails will provide strategic opportunities for Russia and China, but while internal dissent in both countries will continue to be suppressed, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping may see an opportunity to take on the mantle of global leadership in areas ranging from confronting terrorism to climate change.

In France, Marine Le Pen will fight a determined and opportunistic campaign, but her defeat, combined with victory for Angela Merkel, could highlight the limits of populism’s appeal and provide the momentum for continental leaders at last to address the deeper faultlines of the European project.

The moderate insurgency could have many fronts. Back home, Theresa May’s government – its right wing distracted by Brexit – will continue slowly to develop an account of one-nation Conservatism including a critique of business practice in areas such as executive pay and poor working conditions (on which subject I am leading a review for the prime minister), and a commitment to a regionally focused industrial strategy. Austerity will be seen as a burden to be lessened, not a virtue to be extolled. Historians may come to see 2017 as the beginning of the end for the long, intellectually barren era of neoliberalism.

There could even be signs of life in the Labour party. A surprise victory in April for Gerard Coyne’s members-first campaign to lead the trade union Unite could have a powerful impact. It will be moderate insurgency in action, showing pragmatism can be a successful electoral strategy. In Len McCluskey, it will remove Jeremy Corbyn’s most powerful supporter, and it could contribute to the emergence of new models of trade unionism relevant to modern forms of employment and pursuing partnership rather than confrontation in the workplace. Another disappointing round of local elections in May (the success of mayoral candidates such as Andy Burnham in Manchester in spite of, not because of, Labour in Westminster) will be the final straw for Labour MPs, and with his own activist base now hopelessly divided, Corbyn may not even put up a fight.

Vladimir Putin, with a Viking sword on Friday, could take advantage of America’s travails to take on the mantle of global leadership. Photograph: Mikhail Klimentyev/AP

The victory of emerging frontrunner Keir Starmer in the subsequent contest could provide Labour with credible leadership. An insurgency needs a programme, so just as important as the top job would be the stirrings of intellectual renewal as the party explores radical policy ideas such as universal basic income and the major reform of our creaking tax system.

Labour’s debate would hint at a deeper shift in the public mood. People will remember that, as well as political extremism, war, terror and a remarkable celebrity death toll, 2016 was a year in which absolute poverty levels continued to decline, and deaths from malaria halved; a year when international communities of city leaders, climate change activists and medical scientists focused not just on today’s challenges but tomorrow’s opportunities. As we become aware of the scope for technology to transform our lives, there will be a determination to create a world where science and innovation benefits us all, not just the billionaires of Silicon Valley.

Defying expectations, will 2017 be the year optimism comes back into fashion? Sick of complaining, resigned to the failures of their parents’ generation, young people will be inspired by the simple question “Why not?” Just like the shift in America from the gilded age of division and excess in the late 19th century to the progressive era of the early 20th century, there will be an explosion of social innovation.

Across the globe we will see new social movements focused less on protest and more on solutions, the growth of alternative business models, ambitious ideas to renew the public realm, growing confidence and bold experimentation among city leaders. Taking the energy of populism but combining it with optimism, the sapping narrative of the elite versus the masses will be replaced by a patient determination to make politics the engine of social engagement and progress. The moderate insurgency will smash apart the assumption that you have to be enraged and extreme to be determined and active.

By now you may be wondering whether I wrote this piece having started my new year celebrations early. I’m not putting money on any of the above. But if, after the many defeats and divisions of 2016, optimism appeals, remember a simple truth: when it comes to human progress it is not hope that leads to action but action that leads to hope.

Matthew Taylor is chief executive of the RSA. He is writing in a personal capacity