Grab a chair: Congress is about to get as fascinating and powerful as it gets. Epic fall(s)

Grab a chair: Congress is about to get as fascinating and powerful as it gets.

In the next two months, the most unpopular institution in America will decide the fates of a president’s power, a military strike, defense contracts, the budget, health-care implementation, the Federal Reserve chairmanship, illegal immigrants, and all of us who would be hit by a debt default.


It will be bitter, ugly, extremely high stakes and in every case wildly unpredictable. “In 33 years, we’ve never come back from summer break with the number of very critical, important issues that we’re going to confront over the next 90 to 120 days,” House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told us. “It’s an amazing time.”

Based on talking to the smartest members and aides we know, Republicans and Democrats alike feel the Syria resolution would not pass today, even after party leaders endorsed it. Immigration reform looks dead for this year and probably next. They think the chances of defaulting on debt are low, but not as low as many think because conservatives are showing no signs of bending. And they see very little hope of any budget deal that allows for major changes to the sequestration cuts.

( See POLITICO’s full Syria coverage)

Hoyer said the glut has resulted from “our inability to resolve the issues. They don’t go away — they just back up.” Top leadership aides in both parties — and both chambers — were generally glum as they walked us through their expectations for the fall. The best-case scenario: just muddling through without a catastrophe. The most fascinating drama to watch – again — will be the GOP leadership versus its rank-and-file on virtually every major fight.

Here’s the state of play on each of the mega-issues:

— Syria: House Republican staffers tell us that several key members are unsatisfied so far by the classified briefings from the administration. A top aide said the administration has failed to make a compelling case “beyond spasmodic moral outrage.”

“Nobody has really heard how this is going to either improve the situation on the ground in Syria, improve the situation for pro-democracy groups, not play into al-Qaeda’s hands, not play into Russia’s hands, not play into China’s hands,” the aide said. “Members felt the administration hasn’t made a case about how this is going to stop it from happening again. They’re putting a lot of chips on: ‘We have to do this for Israel,’ or, ‘We have to do this because it’s unacceptable.’”

( Also on POLITICO: Liberals balk on Syria)

Another House GOP aide told us that President Obama will have to make a better personal case to the public, not just to Congress: If you’re going to sell the members, you also have to sell the constituents. Otherwise, the country could watch the amazing spectacle of Congress defeating a war resolution backed by the president and every top elected leader. And Wednesday evening, a top House Republican aide said the measure could actually lose.

— Defense spending: A separate debate, with its own harsh fault lines, could unfold over how to pay for a Syrian attack. House aides think a supplemental spending bill may be needed for an operation of any scale. “How will [increased defense spending] during a time of sequestration make liberals feel?” asked one House Republican aide. “Or does he try to fund the missile strikes out of the hide of current DoD spending? If that’s the plan, good luck getting defense hawks on board. There was fat to cut to fund Libya, but that doesn’t exist anymore.” Hill aides said one possibility that could sweeten the politics for Obama would be to include the spending authority in the war resolution, meaning lawmakers – and the White House – would only have to endure one vote.

— Government spending: With only nine workdays scheduled this month, the House faces a Sept. 30 deadline for a spending bill to keep the government from shutting down. That may be solved with a temporary extension of as little as a month, clogging the calendar later in the year. Shocker.

( Also on POLITICO: Bill Clinton: Improve, don't repeal, ACA)

Republicans say many members are undeterred in their quest to link the continuing spending resolution to defunding Obamacare, despite the obvious futility of that approach, and ugly optics and politics for the national party. Outside conservative groups plan to make a federal case of the issue, making it harder for members to renew the nation’s spending authority.

A huge question will be what to do about new sequester cuts that are scheduled for January. Republicans would be game to replace them with cuts in mandatory spending programs. But to go there, Democrats want tax hikes – a non-starter for Republicans.

— Federal debt: Then next month, Congress needs to grapple with raising the debt ceiling, meaning the government once again faces the danger of default if enough Republicans balk. The White House continues to insist that it won’t negotiate over the debt ceiling, and maintains that the GOP is on a fool’s errand in its quest for spending cuts or entitlement reforms in return for “yes” votes.

So although a shutdown or default look unlikely, leadership aides say neither is impossible – and it’ll take a lot of time and bandwidth to talk through rank-and-file priorities: spending cuts, tax reform and Obamacare. “All of those options, or some combination, are on the table,” a House GOP aide said. The debt ceiling is a tougher vote for many conservatives than a short-term spending bill would be. So default – which is worse for the world and more damaging for the nation — will be the harder of the two to head off.

— Federal Reserve: Some key Senate Democratic aides, who had expected Obama to nominate his first choice to succeed Ben Bernanke, former White House economic aide Larry Summers, say the opposition from liberals have been so unstinting that they now expect the president will go with an alternative, even though they believe Summers could be confirmed after a battle. Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen or a third option are now seems the most likely route.

— Immigration: The fall must-do list for Congress was already so crowded that House Republicans were spreading the word that there was unlikely to be time to finish an immigration package – a handy, albeit probably accurate, excuse. Until a few weeks ago, Hill strategists in both parties had said they thought immigration had a chance in 2015. Now, the smart money is on 2017.

— Health care: At the same time Washington is focused on Syria, advisers to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) say he plans to intensify his crusade against Obamacare. Conservatives in both the House and Senate are determined to prosecute their case for defunding the Affordable Care Act, and even the House leadership will continue trying to roll back the law just as it’s beginning to go into effect.

“We have not ruled out defunding Obamacare in the [continuing resolution],” a House GOP aide said. House Speaker John Boehner has also said he plans a series of votes in a continuing effort to curtail the law — for instance, adding a requirement that income and eligibility be verified for people getting benefits. Aides hope a measure like that could get some Democratic buy-in.

In the end, the debate over health care will simply be a distraction to getting a budget deal which will be a distraction to avoiding default.

Enjoy.