It’s that time of year again. Fantasy football has wrapped up and we’re left with two long months before Spring Training gets underway. To help make these cold winter months a little more bearable, I’m going to make a series of bold predictions for 2015, one hitter and one pitcher every week until Spring Training gets underway. This week’s predictions feature a hitter to avoid, Jose Abreu, and a pitcher to target in the late rounds, Michael Wacha.

Jose Abreu is the 2015 version of 2014 Chris Davis

In 2014, Jose Abreu was a world beater, blasting 36 home runs while keeping his batting average at a gaudy .317. These stats made him a common name on championship fantasy teams across the country, as he provided some of the best late-round value in the draft. In contrast, players who tried to fill their power categories by drafting Chris Davis in the first round got burned. Here’s why Abreu is going to be this year’s Chris Davis.

Abreu had an unsustainable high 26.9% home run to fly ball rate this past season, a ratio that is very similar to the 29.6% HR/FB rate Chris Davis posted in 2013. Since, like Chris Davis, Jose Abreu is no small man, it’s reasonable to expect a hit higher than league average rate. So let’s project Abreu to hover right around 20%, a number that still would have been the 6th highest in the league in 2014, just above what sluggers like Edwin Encarnacion and David Ortiz produced.

Also, Jose Abreu only hit fly balls in 31.2% of his at bats, very low for a power hitter. To put that into perspective, Encarnacion had a 47.2 FB% and David Ortiz was at 45.7%. This means that Abreu relies on a much higher percentage of the fly balls he hits to be home runs in order to have totals similar to other top home run hitters. A little bad luck, or even not so much good luck, will have a great effect on him. Let’s say Abreu is able to produce a still impressive 20% HR/FB rate this coming year; then, using his fly ball numbers from 2014, we can project around 26 home runs for 2015. Far from elite, but not bad for a guy who can bat .317, right? Well not so fast.

Abreu’s .317 average was largely a result of his .356 BABIP–much like Davis’ .286 average in 2013 was a result of a .336 BABIP that year. Abreu, also like Davis, is not a very mobile man, to put it politely. Expecting Abreu to maintain a .330+ BABIP, and therefore an average over .300, is unrealistic. Davis had his BABIP drop to .242 in 2014, perhaps equally as unlucky for him as 2013 was lucky. So let’s pick a number in the middle, a .290 BABIP, just above what Jose Bautista, and much above what Edwin Encarnacion, carried through 2014. With adjustment alone, Abreu’s batting average would plummet to .269.

Now you’re looking at a guy who could bat .269 with 26 home runs, assuming his HR/FB% and BABIP stay above average for hitters with similar build and approach. Is this a first round draft pick? You know who hit 26 home runs with a .259 average in 2014? Adam LaRoche. You know where he was drafted in 2014? On average the 27th round, meaning he went undrafted in a lot of leagues.

Also not helping Abreu’s cause for 2015 is pitchers making adjustments. Since he came into 2014 from Cuba, not a single MLB pitcher had so much as a scouting report on him. Thus, Abreu hit 29 home runs in the first half of the season. Then, as pitchers adjusted, Abreu’s power dwindled to a mere seven home runs in the second half. Pitchers continuing to adjust (and capitalizing on Abreu’s swing and miss tendencies, which were among the top 10 highest in the league last year) could result in a HR/FB% and BABIP below what I am projecting and cause Abreu’s power numbers to be even worse.

When it comes to fantasy baseball, your goal should be not to lose the league in the first three rounds, and then try to win it with high upside players, like Michael Wacha (more on him later), deeper in the draft. You should look for safe options towards the end of the first round, like Jose Bautista or Carlos Gomez. Instead of using an early pick on Abreu you could draft Chris Davis much later, because if Davis rebounds he could put up a very similar statistical line, if not a better one, than Jose Abreu–at much less cost. Don’t trust Davis? Want to wait even longer for a 1B? Go with Adam LaRoche. ESPN has him ranked outside of the top 15 rounds in draft value, yet he has averaged 26 home runs and posted a .256 average over the past thee years, and now moves from the NL to the AL, and a into much improved left-handed hitters park in U.S. Cellular Field. Fortuitously, LaRoche just happens to be penciled into the four hole in the White Sox lineup, one spot behind Abreu, and he’ll have plenty of opportunities to knock in the runners Abreu leaves on base.

Michael Wacha is a top 10 pitcher in 2015

Coming off an amazing 2013 rookie campaign, 2014 was essentially a lost year for Wacha. From March to May he posted a 2.45 ERA, 9.50 K/9, and 2.33 BB/9 , but in June Wacha suffered shoulder issues that landed him on the 60 day DL. The Cardinals were careful and held him out until September. Still feeling the ill effects of his injury, he put up a 5.40 ERA, 5.94 K/9, and 4.86 BB/9 in September and October. If you only look at 2014 full season stats compared to 2013 stats, it appears Wacha regressed. This has led to his being consistently ranked outside of the top thirty starting pitchers for 2015.

But when you look closely, 2014 for Wacha was a tale of two pitchers, healthy Wacha and hurt Wacha. Healthy Wacha took all that he did in 2013 and moved forward, lowering his ERA, increasing his K rate, and improving his walk rate. Then, when Wacha returned, visibly bothered by the shoulder issues, he was a different pitcher. His breaking pitches had less bite, he struggled to find the corners of the strike zone, and was overall a much easier pitcher to hit.

Which is the real Wacha? Counting 64.2 innings in 2013, and his 73.1 healthy innings in 2014, he has 138 career innings while completely healthy. This is a big enough sample to be predictive. In these 138 innings he has a 2.61 ERA, 9.26 K/9, and 2.61 BB/9. Using the 2014 pitching leaderboards, that K/BB would have Wacha ranked 23rd. Of all 22 pitchers with better K/BB rates than Wacha, only Kershaw, Sale, Hernandez, Kluber, and Lester had better ERAs. Do those sound like the stats of a pitcher being drafted outside of the top 100 overall players and top 30 starters, around guys like Lance Lynn?

Wacha will have nearly five months to rehab and recover, and should enter 2015 at 100% health. Granted, Wacha comes with some injury risk, as shoulder issues have a history of cropping up again. But is that much more risk than any other pitcher who could blow his elbow out at any moment? Not really. And if Wacha can just continue doing what he did over the first 138 innings of his career, well, then you’re looking at a top ten pitcher. Strikeout stuff like Wacha’s, paired with excellent command, doesn’t come around often for 23-year-old pitchers, pitchers who also happen to have a great offense behind them. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wacha continues to improve his ability to miss bats and command his pitches. He could make a push for the top five pitchers in 2015 and possibly become a mainstay in the top 10 for years.

Bobby Jacowleff is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Bobby, check out his archive.

