by David P. Greisman

Miguel Cotto is in the driver’s seat, a prime position to be in when so many boxers are beholden to promoters, networks and sanctioning bodies for opportunities or reliant upon other fighters.

He’s likely only heading in one of two directions — to riches or to ruin. He’ll either pick a huge payday against Canelo Alvarez or a huge challenge in Gennady Golovkin.

Those are truly the two main options he has, barring the long shot that a rematch with Floyd Mayweather Jr. this September would be. Cotto, who dispatched Daniel Geale in four rounds this past Saturday, said afterward that he wanted to go spend time with his family. A fight with Mayweather in just about three months may be too quick a turnaround, though money (and particularly the kind of money that comes with facing “Money” Mayweather) has changed many a mind.

There are also the far-fetched options of retirement or ridicule.

He won’t hang up his gloves when he’s having a career renaissance, looking fresher and better than he had in years, dominating admittedly disadvantaged opponents, and putting himself in line for the kinds of paydays that, after a pair of losses just two and a half years ago, it seemed as if Cotto would never see again.

Yet he can’t truly go wherever he wishes. Boxing fans will forgive him for preferring a collision course with Alvarez rather than a head-on wreck with Golovkin. It’s more difficult for him to do neither and opt for other middleweights or junior middleweights instead. HBO executives may push for Cotto to face Canelo. They probably won’t need to. Cotto spoke after the Geale win with a tone that sounded as if he accepted that Canelo would be next.

That’s not a surprise. Cotto vs. Canelo is a more lucrative pairing than a Golovkin fight would be — and a more competitive one as well.

Golovkin has become a bona fide star in the United States, drawing sizable crowds on both coasts, pulling in very good ratings on HBO, and doing all of this despite his limited English in interviews. That’s because his heavy hands and fan-friendly approach translate universally.

But Canelo Alvarez is a superstar, one whose May win over James Kirkland pulled in the highest rating by far on HBO in several years, who has brought crowds of 30,000 and 40,000 to venues in Texas, who is wildly popular with Mexican and Mexican-American fans, and who is also cultivating familiarity and a following among those who don’t share ethnic or national ties.

Canelo continues to improve offensively and defensively, but he still makes for a better match for Cotto. Golovkin is a natural middleweight who walks through his opponents’ shots and has scored knockouts or technical knockouts over 20 straight, some chopped down bit by bit, others dropped in one fell swoop. Canelo hasn’t fought within the junior-middleweight limit since 2013, but his past three fights have all come at a contractual weight limit of 155 pounds.

That’s closer to Cotto’s natural size. Although he told HBO’s Max Kellerman that he is not a middleweight, that doesn’t mean he can’t compete among the 160-pounders. He has been competing with them, first with Sergio Martinez and now with Geale. Cotto came in at 155 against Martinez, retaining speed instead of slowing himself down with unnecessary mass. He was even lighter, at 153.5 pounds, for the Geale bout.

Except the Martinez win was misleading; the champion was coming off a pair of surgeries to his knee and hand and was admittedly still hobbled before Cotto had him wobbled. Geale, meanwhile, accepted a catch-weight of 157 pounds for the sake of the payday and opportunity — unlike Cotto, he is one of the many who needs others to advance and will accept their terms. Geale drained his body, then came in at an unofficial 182 pounds on fight night.

Even accounting for the clothes Geale was wearing when he stepped on the scale Saturday, the weight and Geale’s subsequent performance show that he was doubly disadvantaged. He’d been slowed and weakened by making weight, then made himself even more sluggish by rehydrating and eating so much afterward. Cotto had the advantage as the smaller man, his speed magnified and delivering hard hooks with even more devastating effect.

It’s highly doubtful that Golovkin’s team would accept a contractual catch-weight low enough to do him harm. While a Cotto fight would be the biggest bout yet for Golovkin, they are not aiming for Cotto so much as for his belt. They feel it will be seen as a publicity win if Cotto drops his title rather than defend it against his mandatory challenger, who happens to be Golovkin.

Cotto’s belt was bestowed by the World Boxing Council. The sanctioning body had granted Cotto a waiver from defending the title against Golovkin earlier this year, back when it was initially thought that Cotto would be facing Canelo. But Cotto and Canelo couldn’t come to terms, and Cotto went on to select Geale. Golovkin’s team said in April that Cotto’s promoter had approached them about making a deal that would allow Cotto another voluntary defense. No such deal has been signed.

And Cotto, speaking to reporters prior to the Geale bout, said he was willing to let go of the title if need be, earning more money for facing Canelo while also saving money on the sanctioning fee he would otherwise pay.

“I will do what I have to do for the benefit of my career and my family,” Cotto said, according to a translation provided on a video posted on FightHype.com. “And if the WBC is the one to determine who they think I should face, then simply I will save myself 3 percent. Just fight and do what I want.”

That’s unfortunate for Golovkin, who has been so avoided by so many of his counterparts at 160 that his trainer and promoter have spoken for some time about being willing to drop him down to 154 or up to 168 for big fights. Most recently, the talk has been about the longtime No. 2 super middleweight, Carl Froch, though there’s been little progress of significance.

Golovkin is fortunate to have the cushion of his contract with HBO, as well as revenue from international sources. He also has been seen since last year as the true No. 1 at 160, even though Cotto is the man who beat the man who beat the man, and even though fights are won and lost in the ring and not on paper. Because many already assume that he would beat Cotto, there’s less need for validation.

As for Cotto, few believd he would ever face Golovkin, and they accept a Canelo fight because of the entertainment it is expected to bring. It is hard to criticize a bout that is predicted to be competitive and enjoyable and highly profitable.

A deal still needs to be struck. Cotto is in the driver’s seat, and these negotiations could send him in several directions.

It’s pretty certain, however, which way he’ll turn.

The 10 Count will return soon.

“Fighting Words” appears every Monday on BoxingScene.com. Pick up a copy of David’s book, “Fighting Words: The Heart and Heartbreak of Boxing,” at http://bit.ly/fightingwordsamazon or internationally at http://bit.ly/fightingwordsworldwide . Send questions/comments via email at fightingwords1@gmail.com