Back to the bill: U-Turn ahead

Unchecked auto-industry capitalism threatens to hold the (gas) pedal to the metal & keep us addicted to the tried and tired practice of propelling our private vehicles by burning dead dinosaurs and ancient sunlight, but luckily Senator Skinner’s Senate Bill 802 requiring autonomous vehicles to be electric is the adaptive cruise control of the future, sensing an impending crash ahead and changing course to avoid systematic disaster.

Once signed, the law would say that if a car comes with a tank full of explosive fuels, it can’t go driving itself around unattended, but if the vehicle is electric and needs to drive itself to a recharging station, well then that’s just groovy.

If you want the full legalese, it’s actually not very long. The bill begins by laying out the background and reasons to act in Section 1, (a) through (i):

THE PEOPLE OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA DO ENACT AS FOLLOWS: SECTION 1. (a) Executive Order No. B-16–12 set a statewide goal of over 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles on California roads by 2025, representing an accelerating share of the market, with easy access to zero-emission vehicle infrastructure. Further, Senate Bill 1275 (Chapter 530, Statutes of 2014) called for one million zero-emission vehicles by January 1, 2023. (b) Executive Order No. B-32–15 requires the State Air Resources Board, the Department of Transportation, the Energy Commission, and the Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development to develop an integrated action plan by July 2016 that establishes clear targets to improve freight efficiency, transition to zero-emission technologies, and increase competitiveness of California’s freight system. (c) Senate Bill 350 of the 2015–16 Regular Session (Chapter 547 of the Statutes of 2015) requires the State Air Resources Board to identify and adopt policies, rules, and regulations that remove regulatory disincentives preventing retail sellers and local publicly owned electric utilities from facilitating the achievement of greenhouse gas emission reductions in other sectors through increased investments in transportation electrification. (d) Senate Bill 350 also requires the Public Utilities Commission, in consultation with the State Air Resources Board and the Energy Commission, to direct electrical corporations to file applications for programs and investments to accelerate widespread transportation electrification. (e) Widespread transportation electrification is needed to achieve the goals of the Charge Ahead California Initiative (Chapter 8.5 (commencing with Section 44258) of Part 5 of Division 26 of the Health and Safety Code) enacted by Senate Bill 1275 of the 2013–14 Regular Session (Chapter 530 of the Statutes of 2014). (f) Widespread transportation electrification requires increased access for disadvantaged communities, low- and moderate-income communities, and other consumers of zero-emission and near-zero-emission vehicles, and increased use of those vehicles in those communities and by other consumers to enhance air quality, lower greenhouse gases emissions, and promote overall benefits to those communities and other consumers. (g) Widespread transportation electrification should stimulate innovation and competition, enable consumer options in charging equipment and services, attract private capital investments, and create high-quality jobs for Californians, where technologically feasible. (h) Deploying electric vehicles should assist in grid management, integrating generation from eligible renewable energy resources, reducing costs for all ratepayers, reducing need for additional transmission infrastructure, and reducing fuel costs for vehicle drivers who charge in a manner consistent with electrical grid conditions. (i) Academic studies show that autonomous vehicles provide benefits to society if they are zero-emission vehicles, but have the ability to significantly increase emissions and vehicle miles traveled if they are not zero emission, or if they are not programmed to optimize fuel efficiency.

Following that strong intro is the most useful part to read, which summarizes what the bill does (unless noted, emphasis mine):

(j) It is, therefore, the intent of the Legislature to ensure that all Level 4 and Level 5 autonomous vehicles registered for use in California are zero-emission vehicles, and that when operated autonomously, the vehicles are operated in a manner that optimizes fuel efficiency.

The second and final section follows immediately and is (lucky for us) even shorter than the first. It just specifies the specific legal change to meet the intent described above:

SEC. 2. Section 38751 is added to the Vehicle Code, to read: 38751. (a) In order to meet California’s goals for zero-emission vehicle deployment and transportation electrification and to improve the stability and reliability of the state’s electricity grid, a Level 4 or Level 5 autonomous vehicle shall be eligible for initial registration, or renewal or transfer of registration, by the department under Division 3 (commencing with Section 4000) only if the vehicle is a zero-emission vehicle that is programmed to optimize fuel efficiency. (b) For purposes of this section, “zero-emission vehicle” means a battery electric vehicle or a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. (c) The department shall adopt any regulations necessary to implement this section.

With that relatively brief bill, the auto industry would no longer be shooting for the facile 2025 target of 8% electric vehicle sales mandated by the state’s ZEV program. Instead, every autonomous vehicle sold in California would come with batteries included. 100% zero emissions autonomous vehicles. Talk about hitting the ‘ON’ switch! (Careful readers may note that the bill allows hydrogen too. Sure, but even hydrogen-happy Toyota is betting on electrics now.)

Before the physicist Dennis Gabor won a Nobel Prize for the invention of holography, he published a book calling out the dangers of war, overpopulation, and automation, which contained this eerily prescient and currently apt passage:

“We are still the masters of our fate. Rational thinking, even assisted by any conceivable electronic computors, cannot predict the future.

All it can do is to map out the probability space … Technological and social inventions are broadening this probability space all the time; it is now incomparably larger than it was before the industrial revolution — for good or for evil.

The future cannot be predicted, but futures can be invented. It was man’s ability to invent which has made human society what it is.”

The future cannot be predicted. But it can be invented.

California’s SB 802 was an attempt to invent a cleaner, cooler future.

Artist unknown

Sadly, the dream of these smart cars driving us (autonomously!) into an entirely zero-emissions transportation future lasted a hot nanosecond.

Within weeks, the bill requiring these futuristic cars to be clean cars as well was watered down substantially: it is now, literally, a “study group” which is set to report back to the legislature four months into the year these fully self driving vehicles are expected to come out.

Between March 23rd and April 20th, the entirety of the bill’s text you read above had been removed, and replaced with something far less visionary. It’s title was amended from “Autonomous vehicles: registration” to “Autonomous vehicles: advisory taskforce”.

It’s contents, in full:

SECTION 1. Section 38751 is added to the Vehicle Code, to read:

38751. (a) On or before April 1, 2018, the Office of Planning and Research shall convene an Autonomous Vehicle Advisory Taskforce to review and advise the Legislature on policies pertaining to autonomous vehicles. The Autonomous Vehicle Advisory Taskforce shall meet at least quarterly, and shall include at least one member each from the following entities:

(1) The State Air Resources Board.

(2) The Office of Planning and Research.

(3) The Strategic Growth Council.

(4) The Transportation Agency.

(5) The Department of Housing and Community Development.

(6) The Department of Motor Vehicles.

(7) The autonomous vehicle industry.

(8) A public health or clean air advocacy organization.

(b) On or before January 1, 2019, the Autonomous Vehicle Advisory Taskforce shall offer recommendations to the Legislature regarding policies that maximize the environmental benefits and minimize the air pollution, traffic congestion, and land use impacts of autonomous vehicles, including recommendations regarding updates to statewide infrastructure planning efforts.

[My emphasis; at least it still had some environmental focus…]

Not content with this, it was modified due to lobbyist pressure yet again by early May, including:

The one representative of the “AV industry” became “ At least two members representing autonomous vehicle manufacturers ”

members representing autonomous vehicle ” “ at least one member each from” … “a public health or clean air advocacy organization” became “ a member from ”

member each from” … “a public health or clean air advocacy organization” became “ ” “recommendations to the Legislature regarding policies… and incentives to maximize the environmental benefits and minimize the air pollution, traffic congestion, and land use impacts of autonomous vehicles” was removed entirely in favor of much more generic language.

Add in another tech industry lobbyist to the two AV manufactures, and the deck of outside advocates on the group is stacked 3:1 against the lonely policy wonk representing the entirety of “public health” and “clean air” interests at the same time.

The final version approved by the Senate and sent to the California Assembly at the end of May:

38751. (a) On or before April 1, 2018, the Office of Planning and Research shall convene an Emerging Vehicle Advisory Study Group to review and advise the Legislature on policies pertaining to new types of motor vehicles operating in California, including, but not limited to, autonomous vehicles and shared-use vehicles. The Emerging Vehicle Advisory Study Group shall meet at least quarterly. Membership in the Emerging Vehicle Advisory Study Group shall be as follows:

(1) At least one member from each of the following entities, who shall be appointed by the Governor:

(A) The State Air Resources Board.

(B) The Office of Planning and Research.

(C) The Strategic Growth Council.

(D) The Transportation Agency.

(E) The Department of Housing and Community Development.

(F) The Department of Motor Vehicles.

(2) Two members appointed by the Senate Committee on Rules and two members appointed by the Speaker of the Assembly, who shall include:

(A) At least two members representing autonomous vehicle manufacturers.

(B) A member from a public health or clean air advocacy organization.

(C) A member from a technology industry organization.

(b) On or before April 1, 2019, the Emerging Vehicle Advisory Study Group shall offer recommendations to the Legislature regarding policies and incentives to maximize the social benefits, minimize the social costs, and encourage the electrification and hybridization of new types of motor vehicles operating in California, including, but not limited to, autonomous vehicles and shared-use vehicles. These recommendations shall include recommendations regarding updates to statewide infrastructure planning efforts, including recommendations to reduce traffic congestion and identification of any other state barriers to short- and long-term adoption of new types of motor vehicles by the public and private sectors.

So to recap, the bill was weakened again and again. At first, simply saying: “yes, AVs will be EVs”. Next, a paper tiger task force with the lofty yet ambiguous hope to “maximize the environmental benefits and minimize the air pollution”.

Finally, a stacked “study group” required to meet four times over one year and given a TODO list pulled in so many directions they may never arrive at the critical destination of recommending zero emissions AVs as a crucial weapon against a warming world.

This was the moment to act. With perhaps ten million autonomous vehicles on the road by 2020, and huge investments from traditional automakers, and initial leaders like Google giving up on producing the vehicles in favor of the software, we may be losing these early opportunities to shoot for a bold green future.

As consumers become accustomed to having their gas-guzzling SUVs (sorry, “eco-friendly hybrid” SUVs) drive themselves (“and look ma, we can refuel ourselves”), they’ll expect nothing else. A belated attempt to change the course of this behemoth industry will be about as possible as deftly maneuvering the Titanic around an iceberg.

Speaking of icebergs (in Trumpotone): “our world has tremendous icebergs — the best — believe me! Yuuuge! So many. No other planet does ‘em like us.”

Things on Earth are getting warmer and weirder and it’s happening fast. Real fast.

In the short span of time it took to water down SB 802, here is just a sample of the headlines that must have been missed by the lobbyists (or ignored; “profits over planet”) while they busied themselves heating up the Senate and melting the best of the bill into a puddle of nothingness: