With the NSW government set to deliver an independent review of its divisive lockout laws, a new report reveals a dramatic reduction in assaults in Kings Cross and that rates of business closures have been drastically exaggerated

Sydney’s controversial lockout laws have divided the city since their introduction in early 2014.

Critics say the laws mandating last entry to venues at 1.30am and last drinks at 3am in Kings Cross and the CBD have had a chilling effect on the city’s nightlife, forcing businesses to shut down without targeting the root cause of alcohol-fuelled violence.

Opposition to the reforms gained momentum earlier this year when a lengthy opinion piece by technology entrepreneur Matt Barrie, accusing Mike Baird’s Coalition government of a pattern of nanny-state regulation, was widely shared.

“Sydney, once the best city in the world, has become an international joke thanks to the NSW Liberal government. No wonder everyone’s apparently moving to Melbourne,” Barrie said.

Sydney's lockout laws: five key facts about the city's alcohol debate Read more

But supporters of the laws point to reductions in crime and hospital admissions as evidence of their effectiveness. Residents of affected areas such as Kings Cross say the restrictions have restored safety and civility to their neighbourhoods – and they deny the problem has been shifted elsewhere.

The independent review of the laws by former high court justice Ian Callinan QC was scheduled to be delivered to the state government by the end of August. Guardian Australia has sought clarification on the timing from the deputy premier’s office.

But, apparently in readiness for the report’s release, both camps have been bolstering their arguments with new data and surveys. Recently released figures suggest the negative impacts of the reforms have been exaggerated and that there is much more widespread support than some media coverage would suggest.

Here are the main questions the public can expect the review to rule on.

Have the lockout laws led to a decrease in alcohol-fuelled violence?

A variety of sources point to an unequivocal “yes”. The question is, by how much?

Reports and analysis released by the Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (Bocsar) in April 2015 and February this year show a decline in assaults in areas covered by the lockout laws. The most recent figures show a 40% decline in assaults in Kings Cross and a 20% decline in the Sydney CBD “entertainment precinct”.

A report released on Monday by the Foundation for Alcohol Research and Education (Fare) that took into account figures from Bocsar and other sources put the figures much higher. It found that non-domestic assaults during the lockout period had reduced by 70.2% in Kings Cross and 30.7% in the CBD on weekend nights, and by 75.5% in Kings Cross and 41.5% in the CBD after last drinks were called at 3am.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Sign points to St Vincent’s hospital and Kings Cross in Sydney’s east. Emergency service workers say they have noticed an improvement since the lockout laws were introduced. Photograph: Tracey Nearmy/AAP

The director of Bocsar, Don Weatherburn, did note earlier this year that assaults had been decreasing in New South Wales since 2008: “What the lockout laws did was accelerate the existing downward trend, so it fell even faster than before.”

But the Last Drinks Coalition of NSW doctors, police, nurses and paramedics says emergency service workers have noticed the difference since the lockout laws were introduced. Recent Bocsar statistics show a 59.2% decrease in assault rates in Kings Cross between 6pm and 1.30am and a 93.9% decrease between 3am and 6am.

“Those are staggering statistics and proof that the suite of measures are working,” said Scott Weber, coalition spokesman and president of the Police Association of NSW.

“You’ve got to look at the whole picture, and the picture tells the very clear story that assault rates haven’t just dropped since the suite of alcohol measures were introduced, they’ve plummeted.”

Have the laws caused social and economic damage to the city’s nightlife?

'They're treating us like children': a generation rages against Sydney's lockout laws Read more

A key argument against the lockout laws is their impact on Sydney’s nightlife, often referred to as “once vibrant”. The lord mayor of Sydney, Clover Moore, said they took a “sledgehammer” to the problems of the late-night economy without solving them. Several thousand protesters, mostly young people, attended a rally organised by lobby group Keep Sydney Open in February.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest A demonstrator takes part in a rally on 21 February against the Baird government’s lockout laws and their impact Sydney’s nightlife. Photograph: Paul Miller/AAP

One reported impact has been the closures of high-profile bars, clubs and music venues. Analysis by Apra Amcos and the Live Music Office in February found a 40% drop in live performance revenue at Apra- and Amcos-licensed venues within the CBD lockout area and a 19% decrease in attendance figures at licensed nightclubs and dance venues.

A Guardian Australia analysis of ads for live music and club night events showed a decline in gigs advertised for venues within the Kings Cross lockout area.

Kings Cross in particular is reported to have suffered under the lockout laws, with opponents reporting as much as an 80% reduction in foot traffic in the area, attributed to a September 2015 report produced by the City of Sydney.

But the Fare analysis, informed by that same report and other sources, found the average decline in foot traffic in Kings Cross was only 19.4% between 5pm and 4am on Friday and Saturday nights – and that pedestrian traffic in the evenings before the lockout, from 5pm to 1am, had not changed significantly between 2012 and 2015.

It indicated that rates of business closures as a result of the lockout appear to have been greatly exaggerated, finding that only four fewer businesses were trading between 5pm and 4am on Friday and Saturday nights in Kings Cross in 2015, compared with 2012. The number of pubs, bars and clubs trading during this time fell by just three from 2012 to 2015.

There had been reports that 40 businesses had closed as a result of the reforms. The collapse of the Keystone Group, an investment fund that owned the Australian arm of the Jamie’s Italian franchise, among other ventures, had been attributed to the lockout laws, but that claim was quickly revised given its $80m debt.

Analysis shows Sydney’s lockout laws led to 40% drop in live gig revenue Read more

As for property values, both mixed use and residential property values in affected areas had increased between 2014 and 2015, though commercial property values in the Potts Point area declined by 20%.



Have the laws simply moved violence to nearby suburbs?

Opponents of the lockout laws have argued they have displaced the harm, but the Fare report found that assaults in surrounding and alternative entertainment precincts had remained stable since the liquor laws were introduced.

An earlier analysis found the number of assaults at the Star casino and in the Pyrmont area in general had increased, but the same was not true for other areas such as Newtown, contrary to media reports.

Have the lockout laws improved life for residents of affected areas?

Residents of Kings Cross, Darlinghurst and Woolloomooloo say the lockout laws have been highly effective in restoring “safety, diversity and amenity” to their neighbourhoods. Jo Holder, coordinator of the Darlinghurst Residents’ Action Group (Drag), said their communities had been “overrun every weekend by crowds of binge drinkers”.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Residents of Kings Cross, where the NSW government’s lockout laws have been enforced, say the restrictions have restored safety and civility to their neighbourhood. Photograph: Rick Rycroft/AP

“They literally ransacked our neighbourhood and left with little or no regard for the residents who had to endure their noise and businesses,” she says. “The lockout and last drinks legislation brought welcome respite for residents and many small businesses.”

The Fare report found a reduction of about 75% in antisocial behaviour of all degrees of severity – from physical fights and verbal abuse to loud music, vomiting and vandalism – in Kings Cross between 2012 and 2015.

Helen Crossing, the convenor of the 2011 Residents’ Association (2011 is the postcode for Potts Point), said the area had experienced a “renaissance” under the new restrictions, which had better balanced the needs of night-time trading businesses and those that were open during the day.

“Contrary to what many opponents of lockout laws believe, nightlife is still alive and well,” she said.

A survey conducted by the organisation this year found that more than 70 businesses had opened in Kings Cross since the laws were imposed in early 2014.

A recent ReachTEL poll of 1,600 voters commissioned by Fairfax Media found that support for the lockout laws was widespread, with nearly 60% of NSW voters in favour of extending them to the rest of the state. Support for retaining the 1.30am closing time and 3am last drinks was highest within young voters aged between 18 and 34.

The poll had a sample size of 1,600 and a margin of error of 2.8%.