Why we shouldn’t expect an EU referendum after the EAW shambles

Anna Sonny, 14 November 2014

This week’s government shambles over the European Arrest Warrant, in which David Cameron denied MPs the vote he had previously promised, should make us even more wary of Cameron’s Europe policy and this promised referendum on our EU membership.

The European Arrest Warrant, just like our relationship with Europe, has its advantages and disadvantages. It has undoubtedly improved the efficiency of extraditing criminals for trial, and has resulted in the success of some high-profile cases such as that of Hussain Osman, who was wanted in connection with the London bombings in 2005; but its wide scope also means a lot of time, resources and money wasted when countries like Poland repeatedly request extradition for minor offences such as unpaid parking fines.

The timing of the retracted vote was all too obvious – a Tory rebellion just before the upcoming by-election in Rochester and Strood, in which Ukip will almost certainly gain another MP, is something Cameron clearly didn’t want – but failing to deal with the EAW after promising to meant that he got it anyway, along with a backlash of fury from Labour and Speaker John Bercow. And now Labour has said it will force a vote about the EAW on 19 November – the day before the crucial by-election.

This resulting backfire of avoiding issues is something we have seen before with Cameron’s Europe policy. He failed to deal with Ukip’s growing influence on UK politics and our relationship with the EU in order to avoid treating them as though they were a real threat – and then they became a real threat.

If the Prime Minister was so worried that his party would collapse over a debate on the EAW that he went back on an important pledged vote, then what hope does a referendum on one of the most divisive issues currently facing the Tory party have? If Cameron is waiting for some calm on the Europe front it will never come. With each disaster propelling Ukip up the polls, there will never be a good time to hold a referendum without the possibility of a Tory implosion. The debate over Europe has been thrown into even more confusion, and the possibility of a referendum into even more doubt.