In January, I joined a chorus of others in declaring 2012 to be tennis’s golden age. This year would be the greatest the sport had ever seen, and if someone had the foresight to begin reporting a book before the Australian Open they would have had a story about three of the game’s greatest battling each other for the last time at their relative peaks. The narratives were ready-made. Novak Djokovic looked unbeatable. Rafael Nadal could beat everyone but Djokovic. Roger Federer was in decline. Andy Murray pecked at their heels, but never more than that. The early summer bore this out. Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal were in the semifinals of the French Open. Federer lost to Djokovic, as he had of late, and then Nadal won it all, as he always does in Paris.

Then things got weird. At Wimbledon, Nadal lost in the second round, and a Briton—Murray—was in the final for the first time since 1936. Federer handled Djokovic with relative ease in the semifinals, something he had done only once in his seven previous tries, then, in the finals, beat Murray and won his first Grand Slam in over two years.

Djokovic’s decline continued. He lost to Murray at the Olympics, and was, the rumor goes, so distraught after his play that he cut up his rackets with a saw. (Vlade Divac, his fellow Serb, says he saw this. If you have video, Vlade, don’t be shy.) Apparently it wasn’t the rackets that were at fault: in a tournament in Cincinnati, the last major tuneup before the U.S. Open, Federer easily beat Djokovic in the final. Federer didn’t lose a set all tournament.

And Murray, who had the most momentum of all, with his final appearance at Wimbledon and victory against Federer at the Olympics? We can only assume he went on a post-Olympic victory tour of Scotland’s pubs before coming to North America, where he bombed out of two straight pre-Open tournaments in the second round.

All the while, Rafael Nadal has been home in Majorca—or, at least, we can assume that he’s there. Few athletes are more private than Nadal, so guessing as to his whereabouts is a fool’s game. Guessing about his health is, too. Nadal has not played since his second-round loss at Wimbledon. He dropped out of the Olympics, presumably to preserve himself for the U.S. Open, but now he won’t be in New York for the first time since 2002. There has long been concern about Nadal’s knees, due to his pounding style of play. But early in this season, he looked stronger and more fit than ever before. His absence has been the saddest turn of events.

As the year’s final major begins on Monday, little of what we predicted in the early part of the year has come true. The shifting narratives have turned whatever tale might have been written about tennis in 2012 into a Choose Your Own Adventure book, bouncing back and forth in time (Roger Federer playing like it’s 2008) and space. But we’re left with this: there have been four major events already this year, the Olympics included, and each has been won by one of the four best players in the world. Three of those players will be in New York. Our guess? This year’s Open could see only the second Grand Slam champion outside of the Big Three in the past seven years. Andy Murray, David Ferrer, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, now’s your chance.

Photograph by Julian Finney/Getty.