WHILE historical comparisons are dicey, it is safe to assume that being charged with assaulting a journalist, hours before election day, might once have been disadvantageous to a candidate’s chances in a House congressional race. Whether or not that turns out to be the case for Greg Gianforte, the Republican candidate for Montana’s special election on May 25th, who was charged with assaulting a reporter in a fit of blind rage the previous day, will be hotly debated.

Mr Gianforte’s behaviour was well-documented and deeply disgraceful. According to an audio recording of the incident, the IT tycoon was approached by Ben Jacobs, a journalist with the Guardian, and asked to comment on the Congressional Budget Office’s scoring of the health-care reform recently passed by House Republicans. This was an exceedingly pertinent question.

Mr Gianforte’s Democratic rival, a banjo-playing political neophyte called Rob Quist, has campaigned heavily on the damage he claims the reform will do to poor Montanans’ health-care provision. Mr Gianforte, despite being overheard praising the Republican plan to lobbyists, had publicly said he was reserving judgment on it, pending the CBO’s verdict. So what, asked Mr Jacobs, shortly after the CBO ruled that the reform would deprive over 20m people of healthcare insurance, was Mr Gianforte’s view?

Mr Gianforte: “Yeah, we’ll talk to you about that later.”

Mr Jacobs: “Yeah, but there’s not going to be time. I’m just curious…”

There follows the sounds of bang and crashing on the audio, followed by repeated thumping. “I’m sick and tired of you guys!” Mr Gianforte roars. “Jesus Chri…” Mr Jacobs, sounding deeply shocked, utters. “Jesus Christ!”

Alicia Acuna, a correspondent for Fox News, who says she was standing two feet from both men, has provided an account of what happened during the banging. “Gianforte grabbed him by the neck, both hands, slid him to the side, body slammed him, got on top of him, and started punching and then yelling at him.”

A statement from Mr Gianforte’s campaign, released as Mr Jacobs was in hospital for X-rays, offered a difference picture. “After asking Jacobs to lower the recorder, Jacobs declined. Greg then attempted to grab the phone that was pushed in his face. Jacobs grabbed Greg’s wrist, and spun away from Greg, pushing them both to the ground. It’s unfortunate that this aggressive behaviour from a liberal journalist created this scene.” This was palpably false, Mr Gianforte was charged with misdemeanour assault by the local sheriff, and three of Montana’s main newspapers promptly withdrew their nominations of him.

Absent special circumstances, the election should have been a cakewalk for Mr Gianforte. Montanans last elected a Democrat to the House of Representatives in 1994. Before being plucked from Congress to be interior secretary, Ryan Zinke won the seat Mr Gianforte is vying for last November by 16 percentage points. Yet even before Mr Gianforte’s election-eve thuggery, the race looked much tighter this time. The Democratic base is fired up with anti-Trump zeal, both parties have spent heavily, and at least some Republican voters appear to be disenchanted with their party. Internal polling by the Republican Party is reported to have given Mr Gianforte only a narrow lead.

There are two reasons why his violent behaviour might not put paid to that. First, up to two-third of likely voters are estimated to have cast their ballots beforehand, in early voting. Second, a portion of Republican voters, encouraged by the angry talk of radio jocks and conservative conspiracy theorists, seem to approve of attacking mainstream journalists. That is why Mr Trump calls America’s free media the “enemy of the people”. It also helps explain why Republican leaders have offered no fulsome condemnation of Mr Gianforte’s thuggery. He really could get away with it; what a way that would be to win an election.