Rand Paul, once considered the main contender for the anti-establishment GOP vote, will likely be pushed off the debate stage next week when CNN announces the lineup for the fifth Republican forum.

Chris Christie, however, has clawed back in the polling thanks to a rebound in New Hampshire, virtually ensuring he will be promoted to the main event in Las Vegas on Tuesday, according to POLITICO’s calculations.


Based on national polls, only five candidates are at 3 percent or higher in surveys conducted since late October: Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush.

But Christie, John Kasich and Carly Fiorina are likely to join the top five even though they are all between 2.5 percent and 3 percent in the national polls because of CNN’s decision to consider both national polls and surveys in either Iowa or New Hampshire. (To qualify for the main debate, a candidate must average at least 3.5 percent nationally or 4 percent in either of the first two voting states.)

Christie is at 6.8 percent in the average of qualifying New Hampshire surveys. Kasich is even stronger, at 8.4 percent, which is good for fourth place in the state. Fiorina is at only 4.6 percent but is still likely safe — even if one more poll was released showing the former Hewlett-Packard CEO at just 1 percent, she would still average 4 percent and make the main stage.

Paul, who lost the outsider mantle to Trump, Carson and Cruz, will probably fall short of the mark. While the senator’s 2.8-percent average in national polls is similar to Christie’s, Kasich’s and Fiorina’s — his numbers in Iowa (3.5 percent) and New Hampshire (3.2 percent) will likely leave him under the threshold.

The Paul camp has been running the numbers too and is worried. “It's a daily battle, these polls. And the narrative that comes out of them becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy,” said one Paul strategist, adding that the viability of the campaign is challenged if the senator gets booted off the main stage. “We have to remain on the stage in these debates.”

Mike Huckabee, who was relegated to the undercard last time, is virtually certain to be there again next week, at just 2.4 percent nationally, 2 percent in Iowa and less than 1 percent in New Hampshire.

There’s still some time for these numbers to change to some degree: CNN’s deadline for qualification in the Dec. 15 debate is this Sunday. But because CNN is averaging all the polls conducted since Oct. 29 together — unlike Fox News and Fox Business, which used only the most recent surveys — each new poll that’s released causes just minor changes to the overall averages.

POLITICO’s calculations include all the live-interviewer telephone polls conducted by any of the organizations on CNN’s list of acceptable sponsors. The POLITICO averages include a Suffolk University/USA Today national poll released this week, as USA Today is listed as a qualifying sponsor, while Suffolk University is not. But the POLITICO New Hampshire average does not include a Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll from last month — neither organization is on CNN’s list — despite using similar methodology. (Two senior CNN staffers involved in the network’s political polling did not return emails seeking clarification this week.)

While the criteria were initially designed to cull the field after four debates, CNN was the first sponsoring organization to use early-state polls as part of its formula. That was a long-standing request of Bobby Jindal’s campaign. Jindal has since ended his candidacy for president — but the outgoing Louisiana governor had focused most of his resources on Iowa, where he ran stronger than at a national level. (The only Iowa poll that’s part of CNN’s average to include Jindal before he dropped out showed him at 4 percent.)

Jindal had been in the undercard in each of the first four debates — but failed to make an impact in that lower-exposure setting. So far, only Fiorina, who was in the undercard in the first debate, has made it to the main stage in subsequent forums.

For the CNN undercard on Tuesday, candidates who have achieved at least 1 percent in any four polls among those conducted nationally or in the two early states will qualify. That means Paul, Huckabee, Rick Santorum, George Pataki and Lindsey Graham will likely be on that panel. Pataki and Graham didn’t even make the undercard for the most recent debate last month.

Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore — who hasn’t been invited to any of the debates since an appearance in the first undercard back in August — failed to earn at least 1 percent in any of the 17 qualifying polls in which he was even included as an option, and will almost certainly be excluded again.

Daniel Strauss contributed to this report.