CAUTION: This post contains many statistics that may or may not predict the Pelicans’ postseason fate. Proceed with care (and an open mind!)

In the 2010-11 season, New Orleans made the playoffs with rookie head coach Monty Williams at the helm. This Hornets team boasted a 103.8 Offensive Rating and a 102.5 Defensive Rating. The offensive production of Chris Paul and company was slightly below average, and ranked 19th in the league. The defense however, ranked 8th.

Dec 14, 2014; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans head coach Monty Williams against the Golden State Warriors during the fourth quarter of a game at the Smoothie King Center. The Warriors defeated the Pelicans 128-122 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

For those who may not know, Offensive and Defensive Ratings are advanced metrics that represent the total points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. For example, the 2010-2011 Hornets scored 94.9 points per game, a number lower than their offensive rating. This is because New Orleans played at a pace of only 90.9, which represents the amount of possessions the team gets per game.

The team’s pace is then set to 100, the points per game are multiplied by the same factor and voila, you have Offensive Rating. (The process is identical for Defensive except points allowed is used instead.) The use of these ratings allows the efficiency of teams to be evaluated more accurately on a level playing field.

So, the last time New Orleans made the playoffs they had a top 20 offensive and a top 10 defense. Since that season three teams have MISSED the playoffs while having a top 10 production in one category and a top 20 in the other: the 10-11 Houston Rockets (6th offense, 18th defense), the 13-14 Phoenix Suns (7th offense, 13th defense), and the 13-14 Minnesota Timberwolves (9th offense, 14th defense).

Conversely, seven teams have MADE the playoffs without fitting this bill: the 10-11 New York Knicks (5th offense, 21st defense), 11-12 Boston Celtics (2nd defense, 24th offense), 12-13 Chicago Bulls (5th defense, 24th offense), and the 13-14 Indiana Pacers (1st defense, 22nd offense), Chicago Bulls (2nd defense, 27th offense), Charlotte Bobcats (6th defense, 24th offense) and Dallas Mavericks (3rd offense, 22nd defense).

Some teams were top ranked 10 in one category but plummeted in the other, missing the playoffs as a result: the 10-11 Milwaukee Bucks (4th defense, 30th offense) and Phoenix Suns (9th offense, 25th defense), the 11-12 Phoenix Suns (8th offense, 23rd defense), and the 12-13 Washington Wizards (8th defense, 30th offense).

Basically what those numbers are saying is that in most cases, having a top 10 offense (or defense) and a top 20 defense (or offense) locks up a spot in the playoffs. Out of the 64 playoff spots earned over the last four seasons 49 of them when to teams that fit the top 10-20 mold, good for just over 75%. The remaining 25% have gone to teams that are exceptions to the criteria (the seven teams listed above) and teams like the Atlanta Hawks who saw both Offensive and Defensive Ratings fall in the teens.

Now that the exciting numbers section has ended, we can get back to the Pelicans.

The 10-11 Defensive Rating of 102.5 did not budge with the departure of Chris Paul. That said, the rest of the league caught up in terms of defensive efficiency, pushing the Hornets down to 16th. Monty Williams still managed to keep the defense somewhat together in the 11-12 season with the assistance of a roster littered with defensive assets such a healthy Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza and Al-Farouq Aminu. As you can probably tell by those names and the absence of CP3, the offense took a hit. Their rating of 98.3 was good for 26th in the league. Yeesh.

January 27, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers point guard Chris Paul (3) on the bench during the game against the Portland Trail Blazers at the Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Even though New Orleans drafted Anthony Davis before the season (who is pretty good at basketball), the defense fell to pieces. The salary dumps of Okafor and Ariza opened the floodgates as young, offensive minded players took the floor for the season.

The Defensive Rating of 107.6 ranked 28th in the league. The offensive consisted of some weapons still in New Orleans like Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon, Davis, and Austin Rivers, but their lack of playing time together resulted in another mediocre rating of 102.7, good for 17th in the league.

The 13-14 season had both good and bad aspects for the newly branded Pelicans. The bad was that Davis, Anderson, and Gordon along with new acquisitions Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans all missed chunks of the season due to injury.

These talented pieces saw almost no time to get to play with each other and familiarize themselves with their new teammates. As a result, the Pelicans ratings slightly improved, but not enough to make a big difference (Off. Rating: 104.7, Def. Rating: 107.3).

Dec 26, 2014; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday (11) knocks the ball away from San Antonio Spurs guard(5) in the first quarter at the Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Crystal LoGiudice-USA TODAY Sports

The good of last season was that New Orleans did in fact sign two important tools in Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans. Evans has good size for a shooting guard and has proven to be at the very least an average defender.

Holiday is a game changer on the defensive end, providing his team with much needed protection against the uber talented point guards of the Western Conference (see Chris Paul, Damian Lillard, Tony Parker, Russell Westbrook, Goran Dragic, etc.) Just getting these players on the roster is a step in the right direction for basically any team looking to improve.

The addition of Omer Asik for this season was seen as a move that would definitely bolster the Pelicans’ defense, especially with everyone healthy. However, the early results were not good. The team was still sitting at the bottom of the league in terms of defense despite all of the stoppers in their possession.

What has been overlooked by too many is that the more games these players play together, the better they will become. That may seem a bit cliché but it is true.

It is nearly impossible to ask a group of strangers to go excel together in an unfamiliar scheme with unfamiliar teammates. You just cannot do it. But now, 33 games into the season, the defense may finally be turning a corner.

For the season so far, the Pelicans rank 6th in the league in Offensive Rating at 106.0 and 24th in Defensive rating at 106.1. The top 10 element is there, and the offensive will continue to click as the season progresses. If New Orleans really wants to make it to the playoffs, they must continue their stellar defensive performances as of late.

The Pelicans’ last five games came against the Spurs, Bulls, Suns, Spurs and Rockets in that order. Those four teams pride themselves on being able to get the ball in the basket. New Orleans posted a Defensive Rating of 99.0 in this stretch of games. For proper reference, a rating of 99 would slot the team into the 3rd ranked position in the league. I know that this sample size is small but from what I have seen, the results are no fluke.

Dec 26, 2014; New Orleans, LA, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward(21) goes up for a basket in front of New Orleans Pelicans center Omer Asik (3) in the first quarter at the Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Crystal LoGiudice-USA TODAY Sports

This improvement really became visible in the game against Phoenix. As Joel Meyers and David Wesley noted, the Pelicans were really making an effort to hustle back on defense in transition against the run and gun Suns. This was not surprising.

The consistency of this effort is what caught the eye of myself, the announcers and most likely other fans at home. Every possession, the entire New Orleans team would run back on defense and set themselves up. The final score of 110-106 may not scream “team defense”, but that is exactly why Defensive Rating exists.

Sure, the Suns scored 106 points. But that is a product of their lightning fast style of play and the pace that they execute. Phoenix averages 98.9 possessions per game, good for fourth in the league. They also manage to score on these possessions and boast a 107.4 Offensive Rating, which ranks them 5th. Holding this team to 106 means the Pelicans forced a below average performance out of a top ranked offense. That means something.

I expected to see the Pelicans revert back to their lackadaisical ways shortly after, but they did not. Against the Spurs and Rockets, New Orleans once again hustled back in transition and stifled some of the league’s best offensive weapons.

Again, I recognize that the sample size is small. But the results are not the most telling thing, it’s how the results are coming to be. The core of the team is becoming more comfortable with each other, communicating better and coming up with more stops as a result.

The Pelicans have their top 10 offense already down pat. If the defense continues to exhibit its improvement, reaching the 20th ranked defense will be a breeze. And if the numbers have told us anything, that might mean some playoff games in New Orleans after all.