7:50 p.m. update: Snow squalls continue to target the immediate area, but they are moving east and haven’t amounted to a whole lot locally thanks to temperatures that were pretty mild going in.

Readings are rapidly falling behind the snow, and some icy spots are increasingly possible where roads remain wet as temperatures dip. Winds should help dry things off. They’ll be gusty. A wind advisory is in effect until midnight with gusts to 50 mph a threat.

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Also, D.C. officially got its trace of snow. The latest on record.

7:20 p.m. update: The heaviest snow is now crossing the Beltway and headed into the city. It will move across D.C. and the northern suburbs over the next 30 minutes. A dusting to perhaps 1/2″ of snow is possible in the heaviest of the heavier activity. Temperatures are still well above freezing in the city, but they drop rapidly as the snow passes. It’s now near freezing at Dulles.

7:00 p.m. update: While the band of heavier snow has broken up considerably on approach, a period of blinding snow is currently targeting the Dulles area and surrounds. This portion of the line has produced a quick dusting to a half an inch of snow in its path and may continue to do so if it holds together. It’s currently on a path that would take it through many of the western and southwestern suburbs over the next 30 minutes.

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6:30 p.m. update: The snow squall is now pushing into western parts of the area. It weakened a little bit on approach, but it packed quite a punch in elevated locations to our west. It continues to contain pockets of brief heavy snow.

Snow will impact parts of Loudoun and Montgomery counties over the next 30 minutes as the squall continues to move east. The Purcellville to Leesburg zone in particular has some heavier activity just west.

This activity moves into the immediate area mainly after 7 p.m. if it holds together in current form.

5:41 p.m. update: The Weather Service has issued another special weather statement on snow timing and impacts for northwest Montgomery and Frederick counties, and other high elevation areas to the north:

5:20 p.m. update: It appears the main and most vigorous line is producing a decent amount of snow in the higher elevations of western Maryland and Virginia (1.8 inches in Frostburg, Md.), and flurries have developed in some of our near north and west suburbs, mixing with rain.

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You may see flurries start and stop over the next hour, and even a brief window with no precipitation before the main line comes through in the 6 to 7 p.m. window. There’s admittedly not a lot of snow in this system but it will blow through rapidly and combined with gusty winds could lead to a few areas of reduced visibility.

Don’t be surprised to see snow plows out this evening. There may not be enough to plow, but they may need salt. Road conditions will need to be monitored as temperatures drop behind the cold front. Areas that are left untreated could see patchy ice.

Recent snow reports:

Frostburg, Md. — 1.8 inches

Fairfax Station, Va. — Trace

Bayard, W. Va. — 1.6 inches

Cherry Grover, W. Va. — 3 inches

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Peak wind gusts so far:

Reagan National — 37 mph

Hyattsville, Md. — 36 mph

Hightown, Va. — 51 mph

Wintergreen, Va. — 54 mph

4:30 p.m. update: Radar shows several broken lines of rain and snow showers moving towards and into the D.C. area. The front-runner is passing north of the Beltway and has produced some light snow flurries near Columbia. A second line is passing just east of I-81 with widely scattered light rain and snow showers.

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The main and most vigorous line, associated with the front, spans from central Pennsylvania through western Maryland into West Virginia. That’s the feature which, if it holds together, could produce some wind-whipped snow showers that lower visibility in the 6 to 7 p.m. window as it quickly swings through the region.

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The National Weather Service seems concerned about this line, with some qualification. In a recent update, it says: ” EXPECT NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WITH THIS SQUALL. UP TO A QUICK QUARTER-INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE…BUT NOT EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE SNOW.” Such severe conditions are possible, but are not guaranteed to occur and, as NWS notes, they won’t happen everywhere.

3:30 p.m. update: Local radar (above) shows some light snow showers and flurries cycling through northern Frederick County, but the main line to watch, per regional radar, is still back in West Virginia – likely to move through the immediate area in the 5:00-7:30 p.m. window. Temperatures are in the mid-40s so, to re-iterate, widespread icy roads don’t seem likely, even as temperatures fall into the evening.

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2:15 p.m. update: The National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement cautioning about possible hazardous conditions this evening:

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“THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AND COULD DROP A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS. WHILE ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AT PRESENT…GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY RESULT IN PATCHES OF ICE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO REACH 50 MPH WHICH COULD CAUSE SPOTTY MINOR DAMAGE.”

Note that we think icy conditions, if they materialize, would be mostly confined well north and west of the Beltway.

Original post from 1:00 p.m.

Gusty snow showers are in the forecast this evening.

They won’t amount to much, if anything, but they’re more than we’ve seen so far this winter. Adding to the intrigue, they’re likely to come through during rush hour, although disruptions should be minimal to minor in most locations.

Timing: Rain and snow showers should start moving into areas between I-81 and I-95 between 3:00 and 5 p.m., the I-95 corridor between 4 and 6 p.m., and areas between I-95 and the Chesapeake Bay between 5 and 7 p.m..

Duration: Showers shouldn’t last more than 30-60 minutes in any location.

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Precipitation types: Showers may begin briefly as rain, especially near and east of the I-95 corridor, before mixing with and changing to snow.

Accumulation: Most snow that falls will melt on contact with the ground. However, in some of D.C. colder suburbs northwest of a line from Warrenton to Fairfax to Rockville to Columbia, snow may briefly whiten the ground.

Visibility: Bursts of snow, especially coupled with strong winds, may reduce visibility below half a mile for a short period of time.

Roads: With temperatures above freezing, most roads should remain wet. However, in our colder areas (noted above) if/where snow falls intensely, a few slick spots could form on the roads.

Temperatures: The main reason we think the impact of these showers of rain and snow will be minimal is that temperatures will be well above freezing when they first arrive and, in most areas, not fall below freezing until after they depart. They’ll tend to fall fastest in colder locations north and west of the District, where there is a small chance they drop quickly enough to cause some slick spots, especially at higher elevations.

(Note the animation above represents temperatures a bit warmer than they’ll probably be. The model simulation may have a bit of a warm bias.)

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The strong winds helping to draw in some of the colder air will actually help to dry any wet road surfaces before they can freeze.

Winds and wind chill: The Arctic front blasting into the region this evening means business. A wind advisory is in effect from 4 p.m. to midnight for gusts up to 40-50 mph.

By 8 p.m. or 9 p.m., as temperatures fall below freezing, very gusty winds drop wind chills into the 20s and then into the teens between 10 p.m. and midnight.