Feb 11, 2015 Leaders of Belarus, France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine met in Minsk for negotiations. The result were the ‘Minsk 2’ agreements, a road map for a ceasefire in the east of Ukraine and to lay ground for a political solution. OSCE was appointed to monitor the implementation of the agreements. For that purpose OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) was created.

Fighting on the ground goes on. OSCE/SMM documents ceasefire violations and publishes observations regularly. Distrust among parties is growing, it’s one of the few remaining consesus that ‘Minsk 2’ is not working.

The graphics are based on OSCE/SMM data, they visualize the amount of reported ceasefire violations over time by party and region. A case is defined as ‘a reported violation by SMM if the location is known’. Geographic position of the SMM observation post is coded (controlled by government or separatists) and the observed direction of fire (incoming, outgoing, exchange, N/A). Data shows the quantity but not the quality of reported fights. A differentiation is made if artillery is involved. (See here for the ‘code book’ and some notes on the limitations of data and its interpretations. There might also be mistakes made while data entry.)

Fig. 1. By party (Apr 15 – May 15): All sides violated the ceasefire extensively. The observed use of artillery stresses the quality of the violation.

Fig. 2 – 6. By Location and direction (Apr 15 – May 15): Charts visualizes ceasefire violations by regions and direction. Fig. 2 includes only incidents around Donetsk city (20km). Regions are Donetsk, Lugansk and Mariupol. Cases are assigned to one of those regions. Colors show the direction of shooting. Direction (in, out) depends on geographical position of OSCE observation point. If it’s located on the territory controlled by the red team, and there is incoming fire (from the other side of the frontline), it can be assumed that the blue team is shooting. If there is outgoing fire, it can be assumed that the red team shoots. (wf)

Link to spread sheet for replication or research. Cc-by-3.0