After their unexpected victory in the battle of “Schumer’s Shutdown,” which briefly closed federal doors, President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans have a real chance to beat conventional wisdom that predicts a Democratic “blue wave” in 2018 midterm elections.

Democrats and their media allies were wildly optimistic just a few weeks ago, thanks to smashing victories in New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races. Republicans were also having a hard time winning special elections for state legislative seats across the nation.

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And there was the Roy Moore disaster, which allowed Democrats to win an Alabama Senate seat for the first time in decades. Moore lost to Democrat Doug Jones in a close race that means Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ former Senate seat is lost in a rock-ribbed Republican state until 2020.

It should look grim for the GOP regarding its prospects — but it doesn’t. A new Marist poll for NPR and the PBS NewsHour found that the Democrats are still leading the Republicans in the generic ballot test for House races, 46 percent to 40 percent. Nine percent were undecided.

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But that is sharply down from the 17-point lead that a Quinnipiac poll found in late October, and it’s down from the RealClearPolitics average of about 10 points that Democrats hold now. Six points is not quite the blue wave political experts were predicting just a few weeks ago.

It means Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) may be secure in his battle this fall against House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Given Republicans’ natural advantages in favorably leaning districts, it’s now more than possible the GOP keeps its House majority. Right now, the GOP has 239 seats, the Democrats have 193, and there are three vacancies soon to be filled by special elections.

The Senate will be a tougher fight for Democrats, despite the narrow two-seat Republican majority there. The Democrats have to defend 26 of the 34 seats up for grabs, and some of those states (such as Florida, Indiana, and North Dakota) are states won by Trump.

So why aren’t the Democrats doing better? Part of the answer is their nemesis Trump, a man with whom the Democrats have an unhealthy obsession that has blinded them to their weaknesses and to the president’s uncanny political strengths.

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“He’s doing everything wrong by Washington standards,” said Rick Newman on Yahoo Finance. “Somehow he kind of keeps getting what he wants.”

Related: White House Takes a Post-Schumer Shutdown Victory Lap

Newman said Trump doesn’t know politics well, but he knows how to tar his opponents with “marketing” and alliteration. Such skills harmed the Democrats and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), as he sought to press advantage during the three-day shutdown.

“He very effectively labeled this the ‘Schumer Shutdown,'” said Newman, a financial and political author. “In just a couple of days, it became very apparent the Democrats were going to get the blame.”

Shell-shocked, Schumer retreated and caved, then lashed out petulantly at Trump by withdrawing the $1.6 billion in funding for the southern border wall he had previously offered as part of a grand bargain on immigration reform.

But Trump appears to be less desperate to get the border wall than Schumer is to get legal status for the estimated 800,000 “dreamers” — recipients of a special amnesty decreed by former President Barack Obama.

House Republicans are in the driver’s seat for the rest of 2018.

The executive order Obama used to create that amnesty via the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program is likely to be struck down by the Supreme Court as unconstitutional. Trump revoked DACA in September, and the special amnesty starts to expire in March.

The DACA fight ties the Democrats up in legislative maneuvers through 2018, which leaves less time for them to raise money and puts tremendous pressure on Pelosi and Schumer to produce for their left-wing base.

And it puts the House Republicans in the driver’s seat for the rest of 2018.

PoliZette White House writer Jim Stinson can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter.

(photo credit, homepage and article images: Donald Trump [1], [2], CC BY-SA 2.0, by Gage Skidmore)