"There never was any uncertainty about Brexit being hard, if the Tories want border control at all costs. So now people will learn the real problem with Brexit is Brexit itself, not the lack of plan to get there. Several times, the PM said that since the UK economic data was better than expected for the last six months, she was persuaded she was wrong about the economic costs of Brexit being large. This is Wile E. Coyote logic – I ran off the cliff, but so far I haven’t hit anything and the view is nice, so the future will continue to be nice. Splat. It is false to claim that restricting immigration or pushing out foreign workers will raise UK real incomes. No matter how many times it is said, it is still false. The UK pensions, health care, retail, and agriculture all will be hurt if the UK cuts back on foreign workers. Unskilled UK citizens who live in regions without demand will not gain a thing. A ‘free trade agreement’ [FTA] with the EU after leaving the Customs Union and Single Market will mean less trade than UK has with EU now, and with many of the same rules in order to get access to their markets. The UK can pursue bilateral FTAs with the US and others. It cannot change the laws of gravity and geography. The share of non-EU trade in UK output will take decades to rise, at best, and will not make up for the losses for decades. As I predicted a year ago in Davos, the desperate strategy that will be open to the UK Government is to race to the bottom, trying to become an offshore tax and financial haven. Not a strategy with much to recommend it, especially since it will be Trumped and the EU can retaliate. Industrial policy on the Communist model of selecting winning industries or companies, and which of them get market access and skilled labour isn’t a strategy, it’s a nightmare."