5 levels of intensity

1 - Latent conflict 1 - Latent conflict

The study classifies “conflict “ second(Low intensity, Non-violent)

A positional difference over definable values of national meaning, considering demands articulated by one of the parties and perceived by the other.



2 - Manifest conflict

(Low intensity, Non-violent)

Stage preliminary to violent force. (for example, verbal pressure, threatening explicitly with violence, imposition of economic sanctions).



3 - Crisis

(Medium intensity , Violent)

Tense situation in which at least one of the conflict parties uses violent force in sporadic incidents.



4 - Severe crisis

5 - War

(High intensity, Violent)Violent force repeatedly used in an organized way.(High intensity - Violent)

Violent conflict in which violent force is used with a certain continuity in an organized and systematic way. The extent of destruction is massive and of long duration.



The causes of conflicts are also classified second the next 9 items :

(these sum of factors - that often operate in conjunction, undermining the stability of states and the foundations of human security - point to a conflict syndrome, a new kind of war)



System/ideology (107 cases) - Continuing the trend of previous years, the most frequent conflict item in 2008 was “system/ideology”, with 107 cases. According to the HIIK study, this item means that conflicts were conducted in order to change the political or economic system or concerned ideological differences.



Others



Some global conclusions

Compared to 2007, second the Conflict Barometer 2008, the number of conflicts remained almost the same – 344 in 2007 and 345 in 2008 . 39 conflicts were fought out with the use of massive violence, 95 conflicts were conducted with sporadic use of violence (crises), and 211 non-violent conflicts were counted ( 129 manifest and 82 latent conflicts ).

After a relatively peaceful 2007, the number of highly violent conflicts rose once more in 2008. 9 wars and 30 severe crises were counted (6 wars and 26 severe crises - a total of 32 highly violent conflicts, in 2007).

Regarding global conflicts (low, medium and high intensity) from 1945 to 2008, the number of conflicts observed per year has risen more or less continuously. Most of the conflicts are low-intensity conflicts. A continuous and regular increase, interrupted by deescalation phases is obserbable on high-intensity conflicts.

In 1992, after the collapse of the USSR, it was reached the all-time high(49) in high intensity conflicts. After a remarkable decrease to 30 in 2005, the number of highly violent conflicts rose again to 36 in 2006, decreased to 32 in 2007, and rose again to 39 in 2008 – the highest number since 2004 .

In recent years, the number of crises had soared to previously unknown values, peaking 113 in 2005, and then remaining on a very high level.

More than 2/3 of the conflicts monitored in 2008 were internal conflicts (254 intrastate and 91 interstate cases). Only 8 out of 91 of the interstate conflicts were conducted with the use of violence. Intrastate conflicts represents the vast majority of violent and especially highly violent conflicts.

Other interesting conclusions:

In this analysis, conflicts very often involve more than one item. Combinations of the 3 most frequent items were common - territory and resources, regional predominance and resources, or international power and system/ideology.