Pro-independence waving the flag of Catalonia in Barcelona. Flickr: Ivan McClellan

In an interview with the BBC last week, President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, said it would be, ‘very difficult, if not impossible’, for an independent Scotland to continue as a member of the European Union citing Spain as one of the main obstacles for Scotland’s reentry into the EU as an independent state.

Barroso said that member states seeking to prevent their own semi-autonomous regions from calling for independence would almost certainly block Scotland’s membership and that Scotland would have to apply for EU membership in the usual way.

Insinuating Spain would veto Scotland’s entry, Barroso said: “We’ve seen that Spain has been opposing even the recognition of Kosovo, for instance, so it’s to some extent a similar case because it’s a new country...”.

Reacting to Barroso’s remarks, Scotland’s Finance Minister, John Swinney, said there was no indication any member state would veto Scotland’s membership, even Spain where Catalan separatists are pushing for independence.

Spanish Foreign Minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, recently told Britain’s Financial Times that Spain, “...has no plans to interfere”, in Scotland’s push for independence.

But Spain has always maintained strong opposition to separatist movements in Europe and while García-Margallo refused to comment directly on whether Spain would veto Scottish accession to the EU, he did say that the cases of Scotland and Catalonia were, “fundamentally different”.

Scotland and Catalonia - the facts

So how threatened should Spain feel that its own autonomous region of Catalonia might fight to follow in Scotland’s footsteps?

As The Economist points out this week, “there are distinct parallels between Scotland and Catalonia, both small nations merged into larger kingdoms in the 1700s both now seeking to rule themselves”.

In November last year, the regional government of Catalonia set the date for a referendum on independence for 9 November, 2014, less than two months after the Scottish referendum. It asked Madrid for permission to hold the referendum, but its plea was rejected last week in the Spanish Congress. Catalans are increasingly looking at David Cameron and the UK’s dealings with Scotland as the democratic touchstone, and bemoaning Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy’s unbudging stance on the matter.

Where the debate and subsequent deals surrounding a referendum on Scottish independence have been relatively polite, seeking to reach agreements where possible, the debate surrounding a Catalan referendum seems at a permanent stalemate: the Spanish government unwilling to budge an inch on the matter.

“I believe that our ties cannot be broken without huge...economic, political and social costs”, wrote Rajoy to the head of Catalonia’s regional government, Artur Mas, in December 2013. In the letter, which came after thousands of Catalans formed a 400 km human chain to push their independence bid and demand a referendum, Rajoy offered to meet for talks, but was clear that there would be no independence vote.

Calls for a referendum on independence in Catalonia have been growing steadily since the start of the global financial crisis in 2008. As Spain’s economic and industrial hub, the region, of 7.5 million people, accounts for around one fifth of the country’s economic output and one quarter of its taxes. Catalans are becoming increasingly fed up with bailing out the poorer regions of Spain, a factor that has contributed to an increase in support for the independence movement.

Recent polls put Catalan support for independence at just over 50 percent with over 80 percent of Catalans wanting the chance to vote on the issue. In Scotland, polls suggest that around a third of the population would vote for independence, but support for the yes vote has been growing in recent weeks.

Even David Bowie waded into the debate this week during his Brits acceptance speech, urging Scotland to, “...stay with us”.

There have been indications that the Spanish government is worried about growing support for Catalonian independence. In December, Spain embarked on a major diplomatic offensive, instructing its overseas embassies to explain why secession was not the answer for Catalonia or Spain.

Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy and President of the Government of Catalonia, Artur Mas. Mas has vowed to continue to demand a referendum on independence for Catalonia.

While there are certainly parallels between the two regions, there are also some fundamental differences.

Scotland’s referendum will be simple yes/no vote for independence, while Catalonia’s nationalist groups are split on whether to press for increased devolution, full independence or a version of federalism. The Spanish government maintains that a referendum on independence in Catalonia would be against the Spanish constitution.

“I will see to it that the law and the Constitution are observed. That's my plan for Catalonia. I guarantee that the president will observe the law and will comply with the law", Prime Minister Rajoy reiterated in an interview on Antena 3 TV in January.

While the Scottish National Party has always campaigned for independence and support has hovered at around 30 percent for decades, support for Catalan independence has shot up dramatically from the teens to over 50 percent, many say as a reaction to Spain’s economic crisis and the unfair burden Catalonia has to bear. Critics point to this fact, suggesting the overwhelming surge in support for independence is more a knee-jerk reaction to Spain’s financial crisis.

Scotland’s independence referendum has the power to affect both the Spanish government in Madrid and the pro-nationalists in Catalonia. The government will be worried that Spain’s autonomous communities will follow Scotland’s example and Catalans will feel emboldened to continue pressing Madrid for a referendum.

Despite last week's rejection of Catalans’ calls for a referendum, pro-nationalists show no sign of stopping their fight,

“...we will call new elections by 2016 at the latest and this election will become the election on independence”, said Catalan President Artur Mas, when asked what he would do if the referendum were blocked.

“You cannot convince the Catalan people that they have no right to vote on this. You cannot stop a democratic and peaceful movement like this."