The interchange is changing (Image: John Humble/Getty)

Something unexpected is happening to our car-crazy culture. What are the forces driving us out of motoring?

IS THE west falling out of love with the car? For environmentalists it seems an impossible dream, but it is happening. While baby boomers and those with young families may stick with four wheels, a combination of our ageing societies and a new zeitgeist among the young seems to be breaking our 20th-century car addiction. Somewhere along the road, we reached “peak car” and are now cruising down the other side.

Peak car takes several forms. Sales of new cars have almost halved in the US, down from nearly 11 million in 1985 to about 5.5 million in 2009. We shouldn’t take much notice of that, though. Cars last longer these days, and sales go up and down with the economy. But we have hit peak car ownership, too. And, more to the point, peak per-capita travel.


The phenomenon was first recognised in The Road… Less Traveled, a 2008 report by the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, but had been going on largely unnoticed for years.

Japan peaked in the 1990s. They talk there of “demotorisation”. The west had its tipping point in 2004. That year the US, UK, Germany, France, Australia and Sweden all saw the start of a decline in the number of kilometres the average person travelled in a car that continues today. In Australia, car travel peaked in every city in 2004 and has been falling since (World Transport Policy and Practice, vol 17, p 31). It is a similar picture in the UK, where per-capita car travel is down 5 per cent since 2004.

What could be driving us off the road? Fuel costs and rising insurance premiums may be a factor. And urban gridlock, combined with an absence of parking places and congestion charging, makes the car a dumb way to move around in cities where there are public transport alternatives.

In the US, however, the decline of the car is most dramatic not in the gridlocked city centres but in the car-dependent suburbs. In sprawling cities like Atlanta and Houston where the automobile is king, driving is down by more than 10 per cent.

Of course the end of the love affair with the car may just be a sign of the economic times: the much-discussed “hollowing out” of the middle classes, with jobs available at the top and bottom of society, but less so for the white-collar workers. Still, a study by Lee Schipper of the Global Metropolitan Studies unit at the University of California, Berkeley, found that while rising wealth correlates with more travel up to a per-capita income of $30,000, beyond that the link breaks down (Transport Reviews, vol 31, p 357).

Demographics is a more likely explanation. It is surely no accident that peak car happened first in Japan, which has the world’s oldest population. Pensioners do not drive to work, and many don’t drive at all. There is also the rise of people like me, “virtual commuters” who work from home via the internet.

Besides work habits, leisure lifestyles are also changing. The biggest fall in car use in the US is among people under 35. The fraction of American 17-year-olds with a driver’s licence has fallen from about three-quarters to about half since 1998. Twenty-somethings have recently gone from driving more than the average to driving less.

Social scientists detect a new “culture of urbanism”. The stylish way to live these days is in inner-city apartments. The suburbs suck. Richard Florida, an urban studies theorist at the University of Toronto in Canada, points out that the young shop online, telecommute, live in walkable city neighbourhoods near public transport and rely more on social media and less on face-to-face visiting. Given those changes, they can think of better ways to spend their money than buying a car.

Phil Goodwin at the University of the West of England in Bristol says the same applies to the UK, where young people are the most prominent in dropping out of the great car society. Maurie Cohen, an environmental scientist at the New Jersey Institute of Technology in Newark, says “Gen Y-ers are quite cool to the automobile.” The modern James Dean is a rebel without a car.

Gen Y-ers are quite cool to the automobile. The modern James Dean is a rebel without a car

Meanwhile, use of everything else, from bikes and buses to trains and trams, is still going up. But even that trend may reverse. Schipper says we may be approaching a point of “peak travel” of all sorts. People just won’t see the need to move around so much.

Of course, environmentalists shouldn’t get carried away. In the developing world, the car boom is only now getting under way, despite gridlock in cities from Shanghai to São Paulo. That trend makes any claim of an impending global peak car far-fetched.

The industrialised world still has plenty of less-green trends too. Falling car occupancy is one. In the US, the average car on the average journey carries 1.7 people, half a person less than in 1970. So even if we individually travel less, our cars may travel just as much. Likewise, the continuing trend for bigger and more powerful cars is wiping out the gains from more fuel-efficient vehicles. And sometimes we simply replace driving with flying.

But the good news is that those straight lines on the planners’ graphs predicting ever rising car-kilometres and ever-worsening carbon emissions from internal combustion engines are being proved wrong.

Planners need to take note. And, if they have any sense, they will start to reinforce these trends with improved public transport, an end to urban sprawl and more investment in inner cities.

Some think car use will revive if and when economies recover. But it looks like something more profound is going on. Florida calls it a “great reset” in society that will have profound consequences – not least for the environment. Even our most treasured consumer aspirations can have a peak. Enough can be enough.