A new poll by Forum Research gauging voter support for candidates in the hotly contested federal riding of Spadina-Fort York, has the NDP’s Olivia Chow with a commanding lead over Liberal Adam Vaughan.

A total of 345 voters in the reconfigured riding were surveyed, and among those decided or leaning toward voting for a candidate, six in 10 (57 per cent) chose Chow. The poll showed fewer than three in 10 picking Vaughan, the incumbent in the former riding of Trinity-Spadina.

Conservative candidate Sabrina Zuniga drew 10 per cent support, while the Green candidate Sharon Danley saw 4 per cent support. One per cent said they’d support “another party.’’

A total of 5.5 per cent said they were undecided.

Forum president Lorne Bozinoff cautioned against relying too heavily on the poll results, given the small sample size.

“While Chow’s support looks insurmountable, it must be remembered this poll was taken among a relatively small sample of voters in the riding, and her strongest supporters are the youngest, who rarely vote,’’ Bozinoff said in a statement.

The poll showed 83 per cent of 18- to 34-year-olds decided or leaning toward Chow, and less than 1 per cent support in that age group for Vaughan.

“So, while we can safely say Chow leads in this riding, precisely how much is hard to determine,’’ Bozinoff added.

In a statement to the Star, Chow declined to comment specifically on the results.

“I don’t comment on polls because it’s a long election and the polls will go up and down,’’ she said.

But anecdotally speaking, she said, what’s she’s hearing at the door while canvassing in the riding is that voters “believe NDP leader Tom Mulcair is the only one who can defeat Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and bring change to Ottawa.”

Chow added that some former Liberals are indicating they’ll support her because the Conservatives’ Bill C-51 “threatens their basic rights and freedoms.’’

Vaughan, in a telephone interview, pounced on the results and the sample size, saying, “I don’t take a poll like that very seriously.’’

He said his campaign has its own internal polling that focuses on contacting residents in the riding who live in condominiums — 70 per cent of the riding, he said, adding: “Our numbers aren’t showing anything like (the new Forum poll).’’

“Our polling shows we’re in very good shape,’’ Vaughan said.

The Forum poll, conducted Aug. 5-7, is based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of randomly selected Canadian adults in the riding.

The results are considered accurate, plus or minus 5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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Forum’s poll is weighted statistically by age, region and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest census data.

The weighting formula has been shared with the Star, and raw polling results are housed at the University of Toronto’s political science department’s data library.

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