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Just Some Carter Capps Stuff, Whatever, Forget About It

WHAT

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball, here’s a graph of Carter Capps’ horizontal release points over time. Negative numbers on the y axis refer to distance from the middle of the rubber toward third base, in feet. The graph is complicated, but it’s not, really.

MORE

Here’s Capps from his second-to-last appearance:

And his last appearance:

Look at his feet, and the rubber. Here’s Capps from his second-to-last appearance:

And his last appearance:

SO

Capps was demoted to Triple-A Tacoma in large part to work on his delivery and straighten it out. There was a lot of talk about angles and efficiency, and it used to be that Capps threw from one of the most extreme horizontal release points in baseball. In Capps’ first appearance back, he shifted about a foot or so to the left. This, presumably, is part of what he was working on, and while this release point is still extreme, it’s less extreme, by about a foot or so. There was no visible, marked difference in vertical release point, so this pretty much all came from moving on the mound.

SO WHAT

This is evidence of a clear, intentional change. Pitchers are conscious of where they’re standing, so it’s not like you need a big sample of data to observe a new starting position. Capps, before being demoted, was struggling, then he made some changes, and now here’s one of those changes, intended to help him not be struggling anymore.

SO

Carter Capps might pitch better.

HOW

There’s probably value in reducing the extremity of a release angle, when facing both righties and lefties alike. Lefties shouldn’t get as good a look as they used to, and Capps should be better able to channel his momentum toward home plate how he wants if he’s a little more centered. The movement on pitches will look different, now that Capps is shifted over. Lots of other pitchers have tried moving on the rubber to improve their results, and there have been success stories.

BUT

I guess we can’t say for sure. All we can say for sure is that Capps has shifted some. Who knows if it’ll work? You never know which little adjustment will help a reliever vault into the upper tier. You also never know which little adjustment will accomplish nothing. People get excited by observed change in players, because they think that improved play will follow, as a result. As if success coming after changes is automatic. That’s not true, and the worst players in baseball are constantly tweaking. Some changes don’t take. Some changes do take and don’t work. It’s not as if now we can think of Carter Capps as the strikeout machine he’s supposed to be. He’s a troubled reliever until he proves otherwise over a satisfactory period of time.

SO

Whatever, there’s a thing.

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WHAT

Also courtesy of Brooks Baseball, Capps threw 11 changeups the other day, out of 38 pitches. Out of his other 629 pitches, this year, before the other day, he threw ten changeups.

SO

That is many changeups.

SO

For a guy who didn’t throw many changeups.

SO WHAT

Capps was also demoted because he couldn’t retire lefties with any kind of consistency. Of course, all his problems have probably been related to one another, but Capps is a righty side-armer with a fastball and a breaking ball that isn’t a curve or a split, which means Capps didn’t exactly have a weapon to throw to left-handed hitters. He’d thrown a change on occasion, but not with trust or confidence. A good changeup is a powerful weapon against opposites, for some reason.

SO

11 changeups is more changeups than ten changeups. This is probably evidence of a clear, intentional change. Pitchers are conscious of what they’re throwing — they have to agree to every single pitch — and all 11 changeups were thrown to lefties. Seems like Capps was told to work on his change, and either he wanted to throw it a lot the other day, or the team wanted him to throw it a lot the other day. Whichever the case, the other day, he threw it a lot.

SO

Carter Capps might pitch better.

HOW

As noted, a quality changeup is invaluable when lefties face righties or when righties face lefties. It’s not the only potential weapon, as curves and splitters and cutters also work, but Capps is trying a change and a change could go a long way toward solving his problems with lefties. Capps is built like a guy who’d have a big platoon split. He has that low arm angle, that running fastball, and that mostly-sharp breaking ball. He profiles like a guy you wouldn’t want to face many lefties, but with a good change, he could make himself reliable across the board.

BUT

Throwing a changeup isn’t the same as throwing a good changeup, and throwing a good changeup isn’t the same as consistently throwing a good changeup. I’ve seen Tom Wilhelmsen throw good changeups before, but he’s in Tacoma, just like Capps was. It’s not very difficult to grip a ball and make it move. It’s very difficult to make it move consistently and end up where you’d like, and it’s also worth noting that Capps could have particular trouble releasing a good change from his arm slot. If it were easy to master a changeup, everybody would have a good changeup. Capps’ change is a work in progress, and sometimes it’ll look great, but it might not ever become great. It might just be a pitch he never trusts. Remember: attempting a tweak isn’t the same thing as successfully integrating a tweak. It’s just the first or second step. Baseball is hard.

SO

Whatever. Carter Capps might pitch better and he might not.

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