Hundreds of small commercially operated drones could soon take to Australian skies under a radical new set of rules proposed by the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) in Melbourne this week.

Under a new weight class system, prospective drone entrepreneurs with craft weighing 2 kilograms or less could take off after completing nothing more than an online application form.

CASA officials say they want to encourage use of this emerging technology, but the drone plan will be forced to dodge flak from opponents who have raised serious concerns over safety and privacy.

Warne vs the FoxKopter

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In the practise nets at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, a taut Shane Warne confronted an expressionless drone. Robocop in cricket whites? Almost.

The legendary spin bowler was appearing in a Fox Sports promotion for the Twenty20 Big Bash League.

But the real star of the promo was FoxKopter, a small camera-drone deployed over several games this season. Flying 30 metres clear of the spectators, FoxKopter provided TV audiences with an up close and personal view of the match play. After a successful summer, the drone has already been deployed for the National Rugby League.

From sport to news gathering to lifesaving patrols, there are dozens of potential civilian applications of drone technology. Currently there are just 33 CASA-approved commercial drones operators in Australia, mainly deployed on scientific research, surveying and aerial photography.

The approvals process can take months and costs thousands of dollars, with applicants required to complete about 90 per cent of a conventional private pilot's course.

That will abruptly change if CASA introduces the new rules on small 'Unmanned Aerial Systems' (UAS), more commonly called drones, operating commercially in Australian skies.

But CASA is also responding to the rapid, uncontrolled spread of high performance drone technology in Australia. Director of aviation safety John McCormick concedes he has no way of effectively enforcing regulations on those who don't want to fly by the rules.

This week in Melbourne he told a conference organised by industry lobby group The Association for Unmanned Vehicles Systems Australia that there could already be up to 100 drones operating illegally.

"We think that for every one we know of there are two or three that we do not," he said.

Better, faster, cheaper

Drones are becoming smaller, cheaper, and more powerful ( AFP: Pierre Andrieu )

The problem for CASA is that small drone technology is now proliferating at an extraordinary rate, with capability and performance doubling every 18 months, while the price and size of the craft continues to plummet.

Currently $2,000 typically buys you a small, high performance multi-rotor the size of a wheelie bin lid, equipped with HD live stream video cameras, GPS, autopilot, top speed of 70 kilometres per hour, with a range of two to three kilometres and a 15-20 minute flight time.

Most of these craft are legally flown by hobbyists who are required to stay below 400 feet, and operate only in daylight, well away from airports and areas of high population density. These recreational flyers are not required to undertake training or register their craft.

There are no accurate records on the numbers of small drones now in Australia, as they are often assembled locally from components ordered online from overseas. Hobbyists and retailers speculate that about 100 new multi-rotors and fixed wing drones are now taking to Australian skies each week.

For CASA's John McCormick, it's a regulatory nightmare.

"The cat’s out of the bag, long ago, long ago," he says.

"The way you manage this is you manage it through Customs, you say you can't bring one in, just like they did with laser pointers, yes? You can't bring them in.

"But that's not my decision, I've got to work with what I've got.

"That's a decision for Government, that's a decision for other people to use or implement, be they Customs or Federal Police or somebody. But from our point of view, once it's out there, I can't pass a law I know I can't enforce."

One size doesn't fit all

The Parrot AR.Drone 2.0. website ( www.ardrone2.parrot.com/usa/ )

John McCormick's skies are being further darkened by growing swarms of smaller craft, marketed as toys.

Weighing in at just 700 grams, the $350 Parrot AR Drone 2.0. boasts HD cameras and a more modest range of 50 metres.

Optional extras now include a plug in GPS, and tests on new control systems have pushed the range out to one kilometre, batteries permitting.

The Parrot Company refuses to reveal sales figures, but leading industry website sUAS News claims 500,000 have been sold worldwide since it was first launched in 2010.

"The very lightweight thing you can buy in Harvey Norman or any toyshop somewhere, am I going to go out and tell that guy or woman to get an operators certificate? I can't write a regulation I know I can't enforce – I can. But it's bad law," John McComick says.

So CASA is writing some rules it can control. Pending consultation with industry, the Authority will re-categorise all commercial drones in four weight classes, to be flown under the same rules as hobbyists until they receive specific exemptions.

Operators of the smallest Group A, weighing 2kg or less, will simply be able to fill out an online authorisation form, receive electronic approval, and start flying.

Senior CASA officer Jim Coyne says the safety risk posed by this group is negligible, comparable to being hit by a cricket ball.

"A cricket ball weights about 160 grams, but at 100 kilometres per hour, [with a] kinetic energy of about 62 joules….there's been no recorded incident of anyone being killed by a cricket ball in the stand," he says.

"The potential for harm and the consequence is very low.

"We talk about a harmless UAS, causing minimal harm to a person. If it hits them on the head it will give them a headache. If it hits them in the back it will give them a bit of a bruise, but it is not going to kill you."

Australian troops with Scan Eagle drones. The Scan Eagle has since been removed from Army service but already flies in civilian skies on scientific research missions. ( Australian Defence Force )

The bigger the drone, the more stringent the controls. The 2-7 kilogram class will require a risk assessment, and CASA will provide a half-dozen-page rule book.

"Potential for harm goes up, still it's not going to do a lot of damage ... that's seven kilograms, about the weight of a six-month-old baby, at 14 knots, or 26 kilometres per hour," Jim Coyne says.

He says operators proposing to launch the biggest drones in Group D will face greater scrutiny.

"For example, the Scan Eagle weighs about 20kg, it can fly at about 15,000 feet, it can be on station for 20-plus hours, and flies about 120kph. It can fly to New Zealand, it can fly internationally ... that person will be licensed, that person will have a full risk assessment, and it will be treated like a real aircraft."

Globally, civilian drones are set to become big business, eventually eclipsing the military market. US aviation analysts the Teal Group forecasts $US89 billion will be spent in the combined military/civil sector over the next decade.

Despite growing industry and community pressure, CASA's John McCormick insists there will be no compromises.

"Safety is the number one priority, that’s the only reason CASA exists," he says.

'Flying lawnmower'

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CASA can expect some heavy flak from sections of the piloted aviation community, which points out that drones carry no effective systems to avoid collisions.

Last year a commercial helicopter pilot, who requested he not be named, told the ABC he had already had one near miss with an unidentified drone.

What the FAA says about drones:

And in November 2011, a Royal Australian Navy target-towing jet encountered an unidentified drone while flying at 3,000 feet, 65 nautical miles east of Jervis Bay in NSW.

The mystery drone was not operated by the Australian or US military, nor any of the certified civilian operators.

While most operators do fly responsibly, drones will crash, and the small-drone-disaster is becoming a popular YouTube genre.

One recent clip from Brazil no doubt sent shudders through the Fox TV/Foxkopter camp: A phone camera recorded the worst-case sports scenario, as a small drone tracked across a football stadium before veering off course and into the crowded terraces.

No-one appeared to be injured, but 5kg of carbon fibre and alloy, propelled at 40kph by several spinning rotors, still generates a lot of what aviation engineers call "kinetic energy".

In lay terms this translates as being hit by a flying lawn mower.

Who watches the watchers?

But perhaps the biggest challenge to CASA's drone future is privacy.

In 2012 the US Congress ordered the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to integrate drones in domestic airspace by 2015.

The FAA estimated 15,000 civil and commercial drones could be flying by 2020, and as many as 30,000 by 2030.

The ACLU's view

Now this ambitious timetable is stalling. The pro-drone lobby is locked in an epic struggle with growing numbers of US privacy advocates, led by the American Civil Liberties Union, which is concerned by the mass surveillance capabilities of this technology and its potential misuse by police.

US state and regional governments have also begun banning civilian drone operations in their locales before the concept has even taken off.

Australia has yet to have its drone debate. Given the implications of CASA's proposed reforms, Government sources tell the ABC it is unlikely any changes could be implemented before the federal election in September.

Last year Federal Privacy Commissioner Timothy Pilgrim told the ABC he was concerned by the patchwork of federal and state laws that may or may not cover various civilian drone activities, and the ability of police to operate drones without a warrant.

He requested that Commonwealth, state and New Zealand attorneys general meet to formulate a coherent overall strategy for this emerging technology.

That hasn't happened yet.

In stark contrast to the United States, public opinion in Australia remains finely balanced by disinterest.

If a drone is used to assist in the rescue of the drowning swimmer, perhaps widespread acceptance will follow. But if a multi-rotor gets sucked into the engine of an Airbus on take-off from Mascot, we may well see drone control right up there alongside gun control.

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- Mark Corcoran has been a reporter/producer with Foreign Correspondent for 15 years. He is currently a Visiting Fellow and research student at the University of Technology, Sydney, examining potential news-gathering applications of drone technology.