Kavanaugh - Ford Senate Testimony

Bayes' Rule Calculator

How can we reason about Judge Brett Kavanaugh's and Dr. Christine Blasey Ford's testimony before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee, to draw conclusions about whether Kavanaugh really did assault Ford?

Use the calculator below to apply Bayes' Rule.

The calculation is based on a simple but plausible mathematical model for how a thoughtful person of any political persuasion might reason about the evidence. The model is described here.

Adjust the green sliders to set assumptions about Ford's and Kavanaugh's belief states, credibility and motivations, their testimony, and other factors.

On the right is the posterior probability that Kavanaugh actually assaulted Ford, under these assumptions, given their testimony. At the bottom are other posterior probabilities taking their testimony both in isolation and in combination, and also considering what one would conclude had Judge Kavanaugh's testimony been calm rather than angry.