For a number of years now, the Arizona Cardinals have been overachieving and fighting against the rules of regression. Although it’s possible for them to continue their success, it seems as though 2015 may finally be the year when Arizona falls back to earth and performs as the unremarkable team it stacks up as on paper.

After the franchise made a surprising run to the Super Bowl in the 2008 season, a few years of mediocrity followed. However, starting in 2013, the Cardinals have been playing like champions with a roster that appears much less intimidating.

In 2013, Arizona won 10 games and finished third in a highly contested NFC West division. The 10 wins seemed to come out of nowhere. Prior to the season, nothing was expected from this team. In the NFL’s season preview, every analyst predicted a tight division race between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. Opinions varied on which team would come out victorious, but every writer believed it came down to those two. Of the 11 writers, not a single one mentioned the Arizona Cardinals. CBS Sports had the Cards finishing last behind the St. Louis Rams. No one expected anything from the team.

That year, the team debuted its new head coach Bruce Arians. No one expected it, but in a few short years, Arians developed into one of the league’s premiere coaches. The quarterback position was also in new hands, albeit ones that had made their mark elsewhere in the NFL. Carson Palmer was the Arizona quarterback for the first time after nine years in the Cincinnati Bengals and the Oakland Raiders.

With so many new additions, it was easy for analysts to assume the Cardinals would be slow to find their footing, but the team was in sync right out of the gate. Arizona went 10-6, 5-3 in one-score games. It had a +55 point differential, a tally that implies 9.46 wins according to Football Outsiders’ Pythagorean Expectation formula. The prediction wasn’t too far off, but everything went better than anyone expected.

The next year, everyone assumed the 2013 season was an outlier, and that the Cardinals fall back into obscurity. NFL.com unleashed another panel of experts, with 10 predicting NFC West victory for the Seahawks and one throwing San Francisco a bone. Once again, the Cardinals went unmentioned. ESPN picked Arizona to finish third in the division; as did CBS and most other publications.

Then a funny thing happened. The Cardinals should have been worse, but they played better.

Their 10-6 campaign was topped as they won 11 games and secured a berth in the playoffs. However, the 11 wins were joined by some scary outliers. The team finished with a +11 point differential, one more commonly associated with an eight-win club. It also was +8 in turnovers and 4-1 in one-score games, all unsustainable marks year to year. Except we said the same thing the season prior when the numbers weren’t even as severe.

So what do we think now? This Arizona team is the same as the one that’s been hanging around for three years. In fact, it’s arguably worse. Palmer is coming off of another major knee surgery, and his health is not a given. The backup quarterbacks saw lots of time in 2014 and were just awful, although it didn’t seem to affect the team’s record. Running back Andre Ellington is also attempting to return after a major injury, and no one knows what to make of the receiving corps. Is it a mediocre unit or one with loads of talent that has suffered from the uncertainty at quarterback?

The defense has been an obvious bright spot for this whole run, but it too is relying on spotty fill-ins. Tyrann Mathieu has yet to stay healthy for a full NFL season. Patrick Peterson is coming off of his worst season as a pro. Darnell Dockett, the long-time road-grader inside, is gone and his spot in the middle of the defensive line will need to be filled. Star linebacker Daryl Washington is suspended for a full season and is waiting for his reinstatement appeal to be heard.

It all adds up to something we thought to be true each of the past two seasons. This team can’t possibly win double-digit games. The prediction crews seem to agree once again, although San Francisco’s demise has buoyed Arizona in respect to the rest of the division. But this still doesn’t appear to be a 10 or 11-win club. It never has. Maybe 2015 will finally be the season the outcome backs up the evidence.