Apr 28, 2014; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Lance Stephenson (1) reacts during the second quarter in game five of the first round of the 2014 NBA Playoffs against the Atlanta Hawks at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Pat Lovell-USA TODAY Sports

The writing has been on the wall for years that the Pacers won´t exceed the luxury tax threshold. Larry Bird has said it publicly.

It is a reasonable position to take for a small-market team that struggles to make a profit and relies on the league´s revenue-sharing checks (which they would forfeit by exceeding the tax threshold).

If they don´t re-sign Lance Stephenson this summer, however, this will be the reason why.

According to Indy Star Pacers beat writer Candace Buckner, Larry Bird has set a fixed price that he won´t exceed in his offer to Stephenson.

We all know how fond Larry Bird is of Lance & how much he believes he should get paid, but team also has firm price set for him. — Candace Buckner (@CandaceDBuckner) July 1, 2014

Remember, Bird traded Granger, a player he called his "favorite." As much as he loves Lance, Bird will also not exceed the price to keep him — Candace Buckner (@CandaceDBuckner) July 1, 2014

We don´t know exactly what this ¨firm price¨ is, but a good guess would be the numbers our own Tim Donahue laid out in a recent piece about the Pacers´cap situation.

Our best guess is that Larry Bird´s firm price includes a first-year salary of $8.5 million. It might even be closer to $8 million, presuming he doesn´t want to box himself into a corner going forward (and even this number presumes he is willing to waive Luis Scola, which he should be).

Perhaps the bigger question is whether the firm price includes a year restriction. The Pacers, by CBA rules, are the only team that can offer Lance a five-year deal.

My guess is that given the questions about him maturity (or other, worse traits), they wouldn´t offer five. But there is a good chance another team will offer four years, so Indiana will be unlikely to retain him unless they also go that far.

Thus, we´re probably talking about a four-year deal for about $38 million.

If they are willing to go the extra year, that could be closer to five years for $49 million.

Though if they´re only willing to guarantee three years, it would only be a $27 million offer.

Again, this is all presuming a starting salary of $8.5 million next year (and max raises of 7.5% each year).

There are teams that can definitely exceed these offers. Though if the Pacers are willing to go the full five years for nearly $49 million, that would, in my eyes, be a big push — especially if the star treatment they are rolling out for him has any sentimental value.

But if they are only willing to offer three years?

Yeah, that means Lance probably won´t return.