Draft process inflated QB's stock

By Mel Kiper Jr.

ESPN.com

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During the draft process I've given Todd McShay a hard time about Ryan Tannehill, as Todd has the former Texas A&M quarterback notably higher than I do on our respective boards.

Our small split on Tannehill doesn't have a lot to do with what we can see him becoming -- I know we both feel Tannehill has a ton of natural ability and, developed properly, could become a very good NFL quarterback. No, the split is on where we see Tannehill right now as a prospect.

The bottom line is that while Tannehill might have a lot of talent, the draft process has pushed up his stock somewhat artificially because of guys who aren't in the draft. Think about it this way: If Matt Barkley, Landry Jones and even Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson were in the draft, Tannehill would certainly be behind Barkley, but might even be behind Jones and Wilson on many draft boards. Sure, it would have made for an incredible year for QB prospects, but it shows you how the desperation for great quarterbacks in the NFL can create a situation where a team like Miami could take a top-10 shot on a player who still has a lot of projection left. Taking such a shot isn't exactly unique -- I've said before Cam Newton was a risk at No. 1 last year, as gifted as he was, because of how much he was still learning -- but Tannehill simply doesn't have the same physical gifts Newton has.

If Tannehill ends up with Miami, it probably would be the best possible situation for him. He doesn't need to start right away, and he'd have a coach who knows him in offensive coordinator Mike Sherman (the former Texas A&M coach), and one who can develop him in head coach Joe Philbin. But my issue is with Tannehill, and the situation is such an important aspect to this. I'm simply not as sold that he can go anywhere and succeed. And when we're talking about a likely top-10 pick, that shouldn't be as much the case.

Tannehill can be very good, but his stock is as much about the draft process and who isn't in it as it is what he has shown to this point.

Mel Kiper has been the premier name in NFL draft prospect evaluations for more than three decades. He started putting out his annual draft guides in 1978, and began contributing to ESPN as an analyst in 1984. For more from Mel, check out his annual draft publications or his ESPN home page. He can also be found on Twitter here.