With 2:37 left and Duke clinging to a 48-47 lead, Virginia point guard Kihei Clark pulled up at the three-point line, dribbling against his Blue Devil counterpart, Tre Jones. Vernon Carey came away from his man, to the foul line to help double team Clark and defend against the dribble penetration.

Clark put the ball on the floor and blew past Jones to the right, the side opposite Carey’s help.

Jones (blur to the right of the ACC logo) loses Clark

Carey turned and stood at the foul line to watch the play develop, leaving Wendell Moore Jr., under the basket, as the sole defender. Clark got to the charge circle, then dished to Braxton Key, the player Moore had left to step in front of the point guard.

Clark (the blur to the right of the charge circle) passes around Moore (hands up). That's Vernon Carey, at the ACC logo on the foul line.

Key, alone at the rim, dunked to give Virginia a lead.

With 40 seconds left, Duke again led by one, 50-49. Working from the right wing, Mamadi Diakite matched up against Moore. Carey again came to double, following his man and blocking the baseline.

Again, the Cavs ballhandler drove hard around the side opposite Carey. Moore scrambled to stay in front of him, unsuccessfully trying to draw a charge just outside of the semicircle in front of the basket.

Diakite laid the ball in for what would become the game-winning basket.

With the game on the line at crucial times down the stretch, Virginia resorted to dribble penetration to provide their last two baskets of the game. In both cases, despite double teams and defensive effort, they were able to drive unmolested to the charge circle.

It’s a problem that has plagued Duke all season. For all of Tre Jones’ ability as an on-ball defender and his long run of success at shutting down a team’s primary guard scorer—from Cassius Winston to TJ Gibbs to Brandon Childress—Duke, as a team, has been vulnerable to dribble penetration.

There are other factors—potential answers to the “what’s wrong with Duke?” question. Duke has gotten inconsistent play from wings—including Matthew Hurt, Cassius Stanley and Wendell Moore, who have all had prolonged scoring slumps this season, in between strings of “breakout games.” Finishing on offense has been an issue—Duke shot 3-of-18 on shots charted as “layups” in the Virginia game. Something different each night (Jay Huff’s 10 blocks, foul trouble against Wake Forest).

While Virginia’s slow tempo may have masked the statistics somewhat, compared to other games, the Cavaliers still were able to defeat the Blue Devils by driving the ball to the rim.

The Cavs won the points in the paint battle, 30-24, joining a list of teams to outscore Vernon Carey and Duke in the paint that includes Wake Forest (48-40 in game two), NC State (44-40), Louisville (44-30), Clemson (38-34) and Stephen F. Austin (64-36). In other words—all six teams to give Duke a defeat this season.

In their 23 wins, the Blue Devils won the paint battle by an average of 41-32, outscoring their opponents in 17 of the 23 games.

With a dominant big man near the top of the ACC in scoring, Duke’s problem in the paint isn’t Vernon Carey getting outplayed by an opposing big. Instead, most of those opposing points in the paint come at the end of dribble drives.

While Virginia big man Jay Huff had 12 points in the paint, the rest of UVA’s inside points against Duke came from Braxton Key (10), Diakite (4), Clark and guard Kody Stattmann. Plus, four of Huff’s six baskets came off of assists from a driving guard (as did two of Key’s five). Another of Huff’s dunks was on a drive of his own, after he pump-faked a three-pointer.

What can Duke do about it? For much of the season, the Blue Devils attempted to mask the problem by having Jordan Goldwire and Jones key a pressure defense that prevented teams from getting into their halfcourt offense.

Moore is often used as a valuable piece of that pressing defense, but the Jones/Moore combination doesn’t seem to be as effective without Goldwire on the floor, leading to more half-court sets.

The blueprint is there, however. If teams can survive the initial pressure and get to the halfcourt, and if there are at least two guards presenting an offensive threat (since Jones can take away one much of the time), a team can rely on the dribble drive to score against the Blue Devils.