For the first time in years, the TTC is experiencing a sustained shortfall in its ridership growth projections.

"While the TTC has this year generally been carrying more riders than it did last year, we are now maybe starting to see some individual days or weeks where we are under last year,” said deputy CEO Chris Upfold,

The TTC had been projecting 545 million riders this year. That has been curtailed to 539 million. It is the second year that the transit agency fell short in its growth expectations. Last year it anticipated 540 million rides but only 535 million materialized.

No one seems to know the exact reasons. A report before the TTC board on Wednesday suggests that last winter's bitter weather, a fare increase and weekend subway closures all play a role.

But Upfold says there may be another explanation: "We're full and our customers know that.

"I don't think anybody can be very surprised if you don't put more transit on the street that your ridership doesn't grow with it. We are just reaching the stage where we are not leading transit growth any more."

Until this fall, when it began restoring service that was cut in 2012, the TTC hadn't added any service for about eight years.

It is adding more peak service in the New Year, but it will probably be a year or two before riders catch on and adjust their transit habits accordingly.

In 2012, when the TTC was forced under former Mayor Rob Ford's administration, to cut service, it aimed the axe at routes with the least ridership. But many of those services were relatively new, part of a boost that Ford's predecessor, David Miller began adding in 2008 to cut crowding.

For Upfold, one of the most galling things about the cuts was that the rider counts that followed immediately after showed many of those routes were just tipping over the threshold that would have saved them.

"We were cutting them at exactly the time they were starting to gain traction," he said.

The failure to attract as many riders as it was forecasting this year has translated into an $18 million shortfall in fare revenue. Upfold said savings in diesel, electricity and claims mean that operating expenses are down about the same amount.

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But are transit officials worried about the trend continuing? Upfold says that the reinstated service this year and the boost coming next year will likely mitigate the situation.

"It is not a serious concern. It is something that we keep an eye on."