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In response to a flurry of mistaken news stories, Mark Twain was once quoted as saying “reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.” If an oil barrel could talk, it would no doubt be sharing the same sentiment.

Not a day goes by when you don’t read a story about how electric vehicles (EVs) are going to sink oil demand in the near future. In reality, the EVs that are first coming to market only threaten about 20 per cent of the uses for petroleum. The chart breaks out the uses for petroleum in the United States, the world’s largest crude oil consumer, and also the place with the most transparent data for understanding demand.

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The largest slice of US petroleum demand comes from individual passenger cars and trucks, also known as the light duty vehicle (LDV) fleet. (The EIA defines Light Duty Vehicles as those vehicles with fewer than 6 wheels and a rated weight of less than 10,000 lbs.)

The consumption of petroleum from LDV’s can be dissected into two categories. The first consumption category tracks the smaller, more efficient cars; for example the Toyota Camry and compact sport utility vehicles (SUVs) like the RAV4. This, smaller vehicle end of the LDV spectrum consumes just over a fifth of a barrel in the US market and is the most susceptible to EV substitution.