OPINION: When I saw Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern enjoying the recent trade agreement signing photo ops in Thailand I had a shocking sense of deja vu.

It's not that I am against international trade – on the contrary, as a businessman I spent a lot of time working on agreements and relations with Australia, Japan, Asean, plus Apec etc.

Rather it reminded me of former PM Helen Clark and the politics she perfected – based on symbols not substance, which have been so damaging but which John Key and Bill English so keenly embraced.

The politics included advocacy of international relations, trade agreements and frequent important leaders' meetings overseas but didn't scare the electorate by actually pursuing policies to improve New Zealand's competitiveness and trade potential – the critical policies for getting value from trade agreements.

So it's all about the politics, the symbols, not substance;about being the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff fixing the economic, social and environmental policy wrecks which should have been prevented.

New Zealand is a small, trade-dependent economy that has struggled since at least the 1960s to develop a stronger tradeable goods sector, which is a key reason for its fundamentally weak economy now and its fall in the OECD living standard rankings from top three to somewhere in the 30s.

This is why Ardern resorts to "Wellbeing" (symbol) instead of productivity, GDP/capita and sustainable increases in disposable incomes (substance).

Clark appointed me the first NZ chairman of the Australia-NZ Leadership Forum – I had lived and worked in both countries for some years.

The first annual meeting was surprisingly successful, reflecting Australia's advocacy that the two countries collaborate more closely to compete more effectively with the rest of the world. I emphasised the importance of this opportunity in my note to Clark, and officials were also keen – but the government did absolutely nothing.

The next annual meeting was also very positive and my report to the PM included rather stronger advocacy. This time there was a response – a request that I resign (which I did after a further annual meeting). And the forum continued, achieved little, a key opportunity was lost and the Aussies got a better understanding of New Zealand's attitudes and priorities.

I also led the business component of Clark's first trade mission to Japan, but same story – excellent visit (symbol), no follow-up (substance). .

Why is this relevant? Well, Ardern is a Clark protege,Clark is still very much on the scene and after two years the evidence is clear – the preferred policy model is all symbols, no substance.

In particular, it's now the symbols of climate policy and what resonates with a select target audience rather than quality analysis to get the best policy and outcome for all New Zealanders.

A few more serious concerns:

New Zealand is not just small but also isolated, with no effective defence capability or allies obligated under formal agreements. Its nuclear-free fiasco ended Anzus for New Zealand, achieved nothing positive and highlighted its socialist inclinations, naivety and untrustworthiness – especially to the US. Perfect symbolism!

Recently this was reinforced by the populist response to the Christchurch shootings, when more balanced and astute leadership was needed.

Without the US partnership (or a replacement – China?) New Zealand has no credible role or capability in Antarctica or the southern oceans.

NZ has been injudiciously arrogant with Australia for decades: the lack of sensitivity to Australia's border protection priority with NZ's visa-free entry allowing a back door to Australia; posturing on refugees; attacking PM Scott Morrison on climate policy; and often poor (sometimes disastrous) relations with that country's ministers and officials.

This is precisely why we are getting undesirables back from Australia, and New Zealanders now have much more limited rights and opportunities in Australia. That is the substance of the relationship – and we did it to ourselves.

There is no sign this will change. The arrogance of the Ardern Government (ask gun owners, water users, energy users, carbon emitters, farmers and the regions generally) and the failures of its policies and ministers are continuing, aided by a weak, poorly led and often complicit "no surprises" public service and the failure of NZ First to prevent the socialist excesses.

The business confidence numbers are a strong indicator of a serious problem and it was insightful talking to several farmers on this month's protest march to Parliament. They are frustrated, angry and uncertain because they are not listened to, are treated with disdain, and their achievements and science ignored, yet they are a critical part of the economy for the foreseeable future.

So, if you care about New Zealand and your family's future you need to be concerned.

The world is changing rapidly, climate issues are complex and challenging, and there is no sign of any process that will deliver sound policy.