Week 4 Matchups and Picks

Jags +3 @ Bucs

When Bucs on offense: Jags run defense is solid, and should be able to neutralize TBs medicore run game. Jags not great against WRs but are very poor against TEs, but TB doesn’t have a TE to exploit that and the rest of their offense has been brutal under Jameis so far. Jags have played some good offenses, so I think they can limit what the Bucs can do.

When Jags on offense: TB’s pass defense is terrible, particularly against WRs. Their pass rush isn’t bad, but the only way Tampa’s secondary would only look is if they playied against Jameis. Trust me, they are all Chicago cast offs. I don’t see the Jags having too much success running the ball, but they have been decent in pass protection, so I think Hurns and Robinson could be in for pretty good days.

Summary: Hopefully it moves to +3.5, but I think the Jags could easily win this game outright, so I’ll take the points.

Jags +3

Bills -2.5 @ Titans

When Bills are on offense: Titans have a well ranked pass defense (and have been good getting pressure), but it was also against Jameis in his first start, John Football, and a one-armed Andrew Luck. Titans have been great against #1 WRs, poor against #2 (although with McCourty back, that will definitely help – Parrish Cox can take #2s), and abysmal against the TEs. Even if Sammy Watkins plays, Charles Clay looks like the real deal and I think he has another big game with 10+ targets. They are ranked 1st covering receiving RBs, but 32st against RBs on the ground. Buffalo’s offensive line isn’t very good, so it will be on Tyrod to make things happen, which he’s done pretty well so far.

When Titans are on offense: Bills defense has been good against the pass, but bad against the run. Most of it has been their touted defensive line, which has been league worst against the run, and also hasn’t been able to get to the quarterback (only 7 sacks). They’ve played Brady and Eli, two QBs who get the ball out very fast, but they’ve also played the terrible offensive lines of the Dolphins and Colts, so it’s no surprise they won those games. Tennessee has the 2nd worst pass blocking line in the league, and Mariota has taken sacks at a higher clip than anyone in the league, so if they don’t get rid of the ball fast, I would look for Rex Ryan to take advantage. Titans have played the Bucs, Browns, and Colts – not exactly 3 defenses that are lighting the world on fire. I think Mariota has a tough game at home and the Bills clean up their mistakes.

Summary: I could see a lot of punts in this game, so I’ll probably play the under 42 or play over 9-10 punts or whatever it ends up being. I’m not sure how well the Titans can move the ball, but if Mariota can it will be impressive.

Bills -2.5

Browns +6.5 @ Ravens

When Browns are on offense: Baltimore is average against the pass, and solid against the run, and have played some pretty good offensive teams so far. They miss Ngata and Suggs and aren’t as great as they’ve always been up front against the rush, but LB play has been fantastic. Even without Suggs, they still get after the QB very well. Cleveland’s offensive line hasn’t been playing well, but that can partly be attributed to their bad weapons. Even so, their run game is just bad and their pass game is okay, but I don’t have much faith in them on the road in Baltimore. I wouldn’t be surprised if McCown got destroyed and we got John Football this game or next.

When Ravens are on offense: The Browns defensive line is poor against the run, mediocre getting to the quarterback. Baltimore has protected Flacco well, but they haven’t been great running the ball until last week. I think they got things back on track a little bit, and I expect Forsett to find success again. Their left tackle is back, and his fill in was the worst tackle in the league while he was out, so Forsett should have a good game. Cleveland is okay against WRs, but Baltimore doesn’t have any WRs. They are bad against TEs, but Baltimore doesn’t have a TE if Gilmore is hurt again. They are terrible against pass catching RBs, so I think Trestman finally gets Forsett some catches here.

Summary: This should a low scoring game, because who is making big plays? Ravens are going to focus on running the ball and they don’t have weapons without Steve Smith, and Browns don’t want to get into a shootout on the road with Baltimore. Look at the skill position players: Forsett, Kamar Aiken, Marlon Brown, Crowell, Benjamin, etc. It’s bad. But is there going to be a defensive touchdown? Probably. Under 43.5. I think an improved and sustained run game from Baltimore will actually improve their defense as well.

Ravens -6.5

Redskins +7 @ Falcons

When Redskins are on offense: Atlanta still has a lot of trouble getting to the QB, and their linebacking corps has been bad against the run. They cover #1 WRs well with Desmond Trufant, and have covered TEs well, but other than that it’s not good. They aren’t great with receiving RBs, so Chris Thompson could be a sneaky PPR play as Washington’s 3rd down back. Washington’s offensive line has been good on both sides of the ball, so I expect them to continue the ball control offense they’ve used. Not the best passing weapons to hang with Atlanta, so if they go down early the Redskins are going to have a hard time catching up – good live bet situation if they get down 10-14 points early, just bet the blowout.

When Falcons are on offense: Washington has a good run defense, anchored by a good defensive line. Haven’t faced any good rush offenses. They’ve been decent getting to the quarterback, but again they’ve played the offensive lines of the Dolphins, Giants, Eagles, and Rams. Atlanta’s offensive line has been good in both facets, so Matt Ryan should have time to throw against a banged up Redskins secondary missing Deangelo Hall. Redskins cover the receiving RB well, and #1 WR well, but everything else poorly.

Redskins +7 (But if they get down early – I’d go the other way)

Bears +9 @ Chiefs

When Bears have the ball: KC’s run defense has been mediocre, but their pass defense has been bad. They have played solid offensive lines so they haven’t gotten the pressure necessary to cover their secondary. They are pretty bad against WRs, but Sean Smith coming back should help. They aren’t great against TEs, and they are the worst in the league against running backs, so Forte could have a big pass catching day. Look for a lot of quick throws from Jay to negate the pass rush. Chicago’s run blocking has been decent, but their pass blocking has been mediocre (and they just lost their center). They’ve played a tough schedule so far (toughest in the league) but if they get healthy and protect Cutler their offense has weapons. That’s a big if in this game – so look for a steady dose of Forte early, in both rushing and receiving game. Wouldn’t expect a big game from Alshon, but Eddie Royal could abuse backup safety Ron Parker.

When Chiefs have the ball: Chicago’s defensive line has been bad against the run, and pretty bad rushing the QB, but they’ve faced 2nd hardest offenses so far. Chicago’s secondary is not good, getting torched by opposing WRs and not defending TEs much better. They play receiving running backs well. KC’s offensive line has been good in the run game, but terrible in pass protection. And so, their run game has been good and their passing game has not been, but they’ve also faced the toughest defenses so far. Alex Smith seems like the QB who picks apart a bad or poorly coached defense. Hard to gauge the matchup of a bad offenses that has played tough defenses, and a bad defense that has played tough offenses.

Summary: I think the Bears will scheme to give Cutler protection to make plays, but this is also contingent on Alshon playing.

Bears +9

Saints +4.5 @ Eagles

When Saints are on offense: Eagles defensive line has been solid against the run, but not great at getting to the QB. Their defense as a whole has been great against the run, and better than you think against the pass. They got abused by Julio, but the offense has left their defense hanging out to dry. Maxwell has been bad, but the Saints aren’t stacked at WR. If he can’t keep Willie Snead in check, it might be time for him to give some of that signing bonus back. NO’s offensive line has been good, but this is still advantage Eagles. Their pass protection has been okay, so that’s a bit of a wash.

When Eagles are on offense: Saints are average on their defensive line in both facets. Their secondary has been abysmal, but maybe getting Lewis and Byrd back helps. Even so, they are last in the league defending the pass. The run defense is good, and Philly’s run offense has been horrible, so both teams should look to throw. NO is basically terrible defending every position against the pass. I’d look for this to be a big Ertz/Matthews/ and Sproles game going back to NO.

Summary: Saints really didn’t look all that great against the Cowboys last week. Shit, I guess the Eagles looked pretty bad too, but the Eagles defense is the best of the group, so I’ll stupidly continue to bet Philly. Actually screw that.

Saints -4.5

Rams +9 @ Packers

When Rams are on offense: Packers run defense has gotten much better after their Week 1 showing against the Bears. Their defensive line is playing good run defense and they are 4th at getting pressure on the QB. If they shut down Gurley, Foles could be in for a tough day playing from behind. PFF guy actually just tweeted their rush D is ranked poorly because of opponent QBs running - not an issue here. Packers pass D is great against #2WR, TE, and RB, and horrible against #1s, so they should be okay against this Rams team. St Louis’ o-line get stuffed in the run game, but holds up decent in pass protection. Their rushing attack is bad, but Gurley should help that a little bit.

When Packers are on offense: They shit on everyone. They’ve played poorly ranked defenses, but no doubt they contribute to those poor rankings. Their offensive line has been good, but not the top 5 unit without Bulaga. Their offense is made by Rodgers and co., not their line. St Louis is decent against the run, but #2 rushing the QB, so this game will likely come down to Rodgers mobility, but I also think they know not to just drop him back, so they will feed Lacy and throw Cobb multiple screens. STL also just lost their best LB.

Packers -9

Seahawks +3 @ Bengals

When Seahawks have the ball: Bengals have a d-line equally good against both rush and pass (8th) that anchors a defense that is very good against the run, and slightly better than average against the pass. They cover the TE well, but everything else they aren’t great at. It’s not a great matchup for Seattle, as they are decent run blockers, but horrible pass blockers. Dunlap/Johnson/Atkins are going to be collapsing that pocket at will. Over Bengals sacks, but it will be juiced. The Seahawks defense has been quietly awful, and it won’t get better playing the early game out east and on the road.

When Bengals have the ball: Seahawks defensive line is good against the run and slightly below average rushing the passer. Bad matchup on the road against the best offensive line in football right now - #1 pass blocking and #5 run blocking, so Dalton should have room to work. Seattle’s pass defense has been middle of the road so far, and give up plays in the slot and to the TE, but Kam back will help both of those. Bengals have the 1st and 2nd best pass/rush offense right now, but I still expect them to be held in check slightly, but they do enough to win and cover.

Bengals -3

Cardinals -2.5 @ Lions

When Cardinals are on offense: Lion’s defensive line is right around average run and pass blocking. Arizona’s offensive line has been great so far on both ends. Lions have mediocre run defense and a poor secondary, and they haven’t been playing any of the top offenses in the game thus far. They are decent against the TE and #1, but terrible against pretty much everyone else. Arizona has a good offense, particularly their pass game, and if Carson Palmer gets time he is going to be able to sling it around. Larry Fitzgerald is a matchup nightmare against slot CB Josh Wilson, so I’ll play him over catches/yards.

When Lions are on offense: Arizona’s defensive line is great against the run, but they aren’t the best pass rushers. Detroit run blocking is awful and their pass blocking is very good, so I think we can expect the Lions to throw it a little more because they won’t get much going on the ground. I would expect Patrick Peterson (who hasn’t given up 100 rec yards in this entire season) to shadow Calvin and do a pretty good job, and let Honey Badger take Tate in the slot. Both of those guys have been lights out, but Stafford will get loose for a couple big plays. I could also see him making a few stupid mistakes.

Summary: I’d be very surprised if Arizona doesn’t move the ball rather easily (or get another defensive TD) so I’m taking them -2.5, but the bet I really love is over 23.5 points for the game. And Larry Fitz props once they’re released.

Cardinals -2.5

Patriots -8.5 @ Cowboys

When Patriots are on offense: Dallas’ defensive line has been good against the run, but has not been great getting to the QB, but that doesn’t really matter because Brady throws the ball in 2 seconds. Patriots pass blocking has been good, but they are actually the 2nd best run blocking team so far. They’ve played some okay defenses, which is really what the Cowboys are. Cowboy’s are subpar against the run and pass as a team. They do get Rolando McClain and Greg Hardy back, they won’t have much time to get acclimated against the best offense in the NFL. Rolando was the best pass coverage linebacker in the league, so that will be interesting to watch.

When Cowboys are on offense: Patriots defensive line is 4th worst when it comes to stopping the run, but they are the best at rushing the passer. No doubt they will try to bring a safety into the box and dare Weeden to beat them. Dallas’ offensive line has been surprisingly mediocre, but they have lost so many weapons it might be hard to look good. As you would imagine from their d-line play, Patriots have a good pass defense but average run defense. Dallas’ offense has been surprisingly okay, above average in both run and pass, but they haven’t played a team with a pass rush yet.

Summary: I don’t think Dallas will slow down New England, especially coming off a bye. Once Dallas gets down, and when they abandon the run game, NE’s edge rushers are going to tee off on Weeden. And NE won’t let up because they are out of their mind. I know it’s stupid to give this many points on the road, but I can’t help it, I’m a sucker for the best team in football playing Brandon Weeden.

Patriots -8.5

Broncos -4.5 @ Raiders

When Broncos are on offense: The Raiders’ defensive line has been a little below average against the run and rushing the passer, but I think they command a lot of attention because teams know if you can protect the QB, you can pass on them. Their overall run defense is actually pretty good, but their pass defense is abysmal. It doesn’t do them justice, because after they got rolled by the Bengals, here are the WRs they’ve faced – Eddie Royal, Whoever the Bears #2 WR is, Travis Benjamin, whoever the Browns #2 WR is, Steve Smith, whoever the Ravens #2 WR is. These Broncos WRs are going to light them up if they can protect Peyton. It will be nice out, during the day, I don’t expect Peyton to have issues throwing either. However, this Denver offensive line is a disaster. It’s so easy talking myself into Peyton throwing for 300 easy yards until I remember the last time I saw him throw. They really are ranked as one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Yikes.

When Raiders are on offense: Denver defensive line is sick. LB are sick. Secondary is the best in the NFL. Their pass ranking is obviously 1st, but they are down a little at 10th for run defense. Oaklands run blocking is good and their pass blocking has been great so far. Their passing offense has been good, and run game slightly below average.

Summary: Call me crazy but I think Peyton will be able to throw to wide open receivers, they just need to make sure he has time to throw. Do I think Carr/his weapons can make plays against this secondary, even if he does find time to throw? Skeptical.

*Broncos -4.5

49ers +7 @ Giants

When Niners are on offense: Giants’ defensive line has been average against the run, but they can’t get to the QB. San Francisco’s offensive line has quickly gone from one of the best to one of the worst in no time. They aren’t good at run or pass blocking. While their defensive line isn’t great, they have the top ranked run defense in the league. Their pass defense is solid too, so Kaep will continue to be terrible on the road here. San Francisco’s pass offense is terrible, second worst in the NFL, ahead only of Jameis. Their run defense is ranked 8th, mostly because of Carlos Hyde and Kaep, not the line.

When Giants are on offense: Niners’ defensive line is brutal as well. They can’t stop the run, but they do get to the QB. Aaron Lynch, Bowman, and Brooks are still good linebackers who can make plays. Brooks is out for this game for personal stuff, so they’ll miss him. Giants have not been great at run blocking, but have been solid pass blocking. San Francisco’s secondary has been bad too. They’ve played the toughest defensive schedule so far, going against Big Ben, Rodgers, and Carson Palmer, so it’s understandable, but Eli should still have a good game. The Giants offense hasn’t been anything to right home about, but Eli has been playing relatively mistake free football.

Summary: I could see this as just another stepping stone to Kaepernick eventually getting benched. He looks terrible, and I think the Giants will put the emphasis on shutting down the run game from him and Hyde, and making them beat him with his arm against their solid enough secondary. Hyde’s o/u is 58.5, and I like the over just from volume alone.



Giants -7

Steelers +3.5 @ Chargers

When Steelers are on offense: Some offensive lines you know you will find at the bottom of the rankings, and SD is one of them, they are poor in both areas. Pittsburgh has a great running blocking line, and a poor pass blocking line. The Chargers are not good against the run, but their solid CBs and Weddle help make their pass defense half decent. Leveon Bell is going to have himself a game here. If his o/u for rush/rec yards isn’t at least 120, we all need to place a bet. Think about it, if the Steelers are winning, it’s because he ate early. If they fall behind, it will be because he ate late. Either way, dinner is served.

When Chargers are on offense: Pittsburgh’s front is not bad, so they should be able to manage San Diego’s running game. Rivers will be able to attack the secondary though, and if both Malcom Floyd and Stevie Johnson are out, Keenen Allen is going to be a target monster this game. They defend running backs well, but Woodhead would still get a fair share of targets too. And now that I think about it, Rivers does a good job of spreading the ball around, so if their 4th string WR is decent and open, Rivers will find him. Then I remember that San Diego’s offensive line is bad and banged up. Rivers is carrying this offense to an absurd degree right now, but the injuries will reach a tipping point.

Pittsburgh +3.5