This article is more than 1 year old

This article is more than 1 year old

Net migration of EU migrants to the UK has dropped to its lowest level for almost a decade, as eastern European citizens choose to leave or stay away.

The Office for National Statistics said that net migration from EU countries had dropped to 57,000 people in the year to September 2018, its lowest level since 2009. Migration to the UK from outside the EU, however, rose at a much faster rate.

Total net migration remained broadly unchanged from a year ago, but the figures mask a shifting pattern since the Brexit vote.

Over the year, 627,000 people arrived in the UK while 345,000 people left.

Net migration from countries outside the EU was the highest since 2004, with the net addition of 261,000 migrants from the rest of the world, part of a steady increase in non-EU immigration over the past five years.

The latest analysis of migration trends to Britain is likely to reflect the shifting conditions for EU migrants working in Britain following the slide in the value of the pound, which makes it less attractive for them to work in the UK. Eastern European economies have also seen rapid wage growth in recent years, narrowing the gap with the UK.

Madeleine Sumption, the director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said: “The overall story the data tell on EU migration is clear. Britain is not as attractive to EU migrants as it was a couple of years ago.

“EU net migration happened to be unusually high in the run-up to the referendum, so at least some of this decline would probably have happened anyway, even without Brexit.”

It also comes as Theresa May prepares tougher post-Brexit immigration rules to aid the Conservatives’ target to reduce net migration below 100,000 a year, a yardstick she has stuck to firmly since her time as home secretary.

With migration viewed as a key reason behind the Brexit vote, the prime minister has made ending freedom of movement between Britain and the EU a red line in talks with Brussels over the country’s future relationship.

She has previously said EU migrants would no longer be able to “jump the queue” after Britain leaves.

Business groups have, however, responded with alarm as labour shortages rise across the country, particularly in areas where EU migrants have typically filled jobs in recent years, such as hospitality, agriculture, manufacturing and construction.

Tim Thomas, the director of labour market and skills at manufacturers’ body Make UK, said: “A substantial national skills shortage means that close to a third of manufacturing vacancies are hard to fill. Reducing the flow of EU workers makes this problem bigger.”

Analysts said that the drop in net EU migration had been fuelled by a fall in people coming to the UK for work, with the total number of non-UK EU workers dropping by 61,000 over the year to stand at 2.3 million.

In contrast, statisticians said that migration from the rest of the world was driven higher by rising numbers of international students coming to the country. Non-EU workers also increased by 130,000 over the year to 1.3 million.

Stephen Clarke, a senior economic analyst at thinktank the Resolution Foundation, said: “While UK politicians are seemingly unable to provide any clarity on where Britain is heading post-Brexit, EU migrants are increasingly doing so – by leaving.”