clinton-trump.jpg

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, left, and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, right.

(PennLive.com file photos)

Ah, Pennsylvania.

We like to think of ourselves as a microcosm of America.

Heavy population in the corners, fly-over country in between. Major league cities, small town charm, massive suburbs, and lots of farms and forests.

And, a state that's not afraid to vote for Democrats or Republicans.

Consider, we've had five Democrat wins and five Republican wins in our last 10 gubernatorial elections. Seven R wins and three D wins in the last 10 U.S. Senate elections. And seven D wins and three R wins in the last 10 presidential races.

That's 15-15, for those keeping score.

Poised to reclaim our status as a battleground state in the 2016 presidential race, in the early going polls show - just like the rest of America - we Pennsylvanians are united by our dislike for both Republican candidate Donald Trump (strongly unfavorable: 50 percent in the latest Quinnipiac Poll) and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton (strongly unfavorable: 54 percent.)

But we still are tied for fifth among all states in Electoral College votes, baby. So you better believe they (the campaigns) are coming for us.

With that as preface, here's a post-convention look at how the presidential campaign overlays the great state of Pennsylvania.

1. We start as a toss-up state.

Most public, pre-convention polls show Hillary Clinton with a lead, but it's not insurmountable by any stretch.

So after a couple cycles in which the national Republican campaign left us for dead, most pundits believe Pennsylvania is one of a handful of big Rust Belt states that Donald Trump must play to win in if he is to capture the Trump... er, White House.

So, for the moment, we matter.

Enjoy it, people! This is why we don't live in Delaware.

2. The regional differences, as best we can tell so far, are kind of shocking.

When looked at statewide, the race is close in Pennsylvania. But regional breakdowns, to the degree they are available, are stark.

Trump is polling very strongly in southwestern Pennsylvania, the Erie area and the traditionally Republican "T." Hillary crushes in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, according to measures in the latest Quinnipiac and Marist polls.

Clinton also leads pretty strongly in the Philly suburbs.

One of the most competitive areas appears to be Northeastern PA.

This includes the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area, where large Democratic voter registration edges meet the largely white, older and lesser-educated demographic that's boosted Trump nationally; and border counties to the north that have, in recent years, become home to New York and New Jersey commuters.

The latest Marist and Quinnipiac polls, which also stir the purplish Lehigh Valley into this region, show Trump with leads over Clinton of 5 and 7 percent points, respectively.

3. All of which makes this, like so many before it, a turnout election.

If those regional disparities hold, it will be more important than ever for the candidates to bring out their bases on Election Day.

For example, the City of Philadelphia gave Obama a near 500,000 vote win over Mitt Romney in 2012. When that happens, Democrats are hard to beat statewide.

But in 1988, the last time the GOP won the state in a presidential race, Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis came out of Philly with a margin of less than half that: about 230,000.

"Hillary is not there yet," said Bilal Qayyum, a community organizer in Philadelphia, when asked if the level of enthusiasm in Philly's neighborhoods - and outside of the Democratic National Convention hall - matched what he's seen in the last few cycles.

"I don't see anybody that I'm talking to [voting] for Trump ... but it's got to be more than that" to really maximize the turnout, Qayyum noted, adding that he hopes Clinton gives city residents specific plans to create jobs and improve schools. "It's what are you selling that we should be voting for you?"

4. Can Trump successfully harvest the early promise of support from what were once called Reagan Democrats?

We're talking mostly white, working-class voters in places like Johnstown, Shamokin, Greensburg and umpteen smaller towns that could respond to Trump's calls for tapping energy resources and bringing back manufacturing jobs.

"Trump is obviously striking themes that would play very well in areas that would have energy development," said Drew Crompton, a top staffer to Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati, R-Jefferson County.

"He'll continue to talk about it, I'm sure, every time he's in Pennsylvania," Crompton added, contrasting that with an Obama Administration EPA that has been perceived as tough on coal and other traditional fossil fuels.

Clinton, once upon a time, cleaned up in these regions when her opponent was named Barack Obama in a Democratic Party primary.

But where do they go when offered the chance to "Make America Great Again?"

Vast stretches of Pennsylvania are "filled with older, whiter voters, including lots of veterans or people who's kids have served" in the military, said Thomas Baldino, political science professor at Wilkes University.

"The message that Trump sends about 'making America great again,' that resonates with these voters."

5. The battle in the 'burbs.

The Philly suburbs are often seen as the place where statewide elections are won or lost. But as places like Delaware and Montgomery counties have trended Democrat in recent years, it's now more a question of margins.

Conventional wisdom is Clinton needs to win pretty big in these suburbs to offset possible weakness with the Pennsylvanians Obama once characterized as clinging to their guns and religion in an ever-changing world.

Democrats would love it if she can attract the middle-income, college-educated Republicans who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 but - like the former GOP candidate - have stayed off the Trump train this year.

Republicans, meanwhile, hope Trump can cut Clinton's margins with strong showings in places like lower Bucks County, as well as riverfront communities like Marcus Hook that have a more blue-collar feel.

"He's resonating," said state Sen. Tom Killion, a Delaware County Republican making his own first race in some of those communities this year. "I'm hearing it door to door, and I'm hearing it at events."

Others wonder about the vagaries of world events. One terrorist attack in a place they can identify with, one GOP state lawmaker told PennLive last week, "and all those soccer moms become security moms in a hurry."

Polls show Clinton ahead here for now. But the margin is key. Republicans like U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey have shown that if you can stay close in the Philly suburbs, there's enough Red State Pennsylvania elsewhere to make Republican wins.

5. What about the third-party choices?

This is a real wild card.

Libertarian and Green Party candidates are expected to be on the statewide ballot here and, in a year where the major party candidates are so widely disliked, they are drawing near double-digit levels of interest.

Latest four-way polls showed Libertarian Gary Johnson with 7 percent to 9 percent in Pennsylvania, and Jill Stein for the Greens with 2 percent to 3 percent.

The big questions here are, do they hold their support or even grow it as November approaches? Usually, third party support wanes as the stakes of a general election are more imminent.

But in a close race, every percentage point could matter.

Democrats, for the moment, appear more worried.

It may seem counter-intuitive, but their fear is Johnson stands poised to take some Republican "never Trump" voters who might otherwise have held their nose and voted for Clinton.

Stein, meanwhile, may siphon off a few more points from the left.

6. Making it about the team.

People on both sides of the ideological fence, in part to deal with those high unfavorables, are reminding voters about the future of the U.S. Supreme Court, with the next president likely to select two or more nominees.

But there's more.

One state GOP leader, commenting on condition of anonymity to discuss the state of the race frankly, told PennLive he's asked Republican fence-sitters to consider which candidate is likely to do more to attack rising health care costs and lessen government regulation on business.

"Who do you think is going to be best for you on those issues?" he asks.

State labor leaders, meanwhile are working just as hard to reel in the blue-collar workers attracted by Trump's rhetoric.

"When you had a $30 an hour job making steel and now you're working at Walmart as a greeter or stocker for $10 or $11 an hour, that brings big changes to your life and yes, you're angry," said state AFL-CIO President Rick Bloomingdale. "But the answer is not to vote for someone who's going to lie to you."

Already having sent mailers to labor households, Bloomingdale said, "We hope that they will see it the way that we do, that Hillary Clinton is really the champion of the middle-class workers and not a demagogue like Donald Trump."

These are some of the early questions to watch in the great race of 2016.

How they're answered may go a long way toward determining not just who wins in Pennsylvania ... but maybe the White House itself.