Meltzer's Musings: Patrick, Phantoms, Prospects December 10, 2017, 10:47 AM ET [238 Comments] Bill Meltzer

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QUICK HITS: DEC. 10, 2017



1) The Flyers return to practice today at the Skate Zone in Voorhees. The session is slated to start at 11 a.m. ET. As always, practice is open to the public and free to attend.



2) Phantoms update: The Lehigh Valley Phantoms dropped a 4-2 road verdict on the road on Saturday in the back end of their home-and-home weekend set with the Hershey Bears. Oskar Lindblom potted a Mikhail Vorobyev rebound to narrow a 2-0 gap to one goal early in the third period. After Hershey quickly restored a two-goal lead, Vorobyev had a tap-in of a Matt Read setup to get the game back within 3-2. That was as close as Lehigh Valley got. The Phantoms lost captain Colin McDonald and rookie center Mike Vecchione to injuries in the second period, and neither returned to the game.



3) WHL: Carter Hart did not record a shutout on Saturday, and remains two away from the all-time Western Hockey League career record. However, he did turn back 42 of 43 shots (including 19 of 20 in the third period) to nail down a 2-1 win for the Everett Silvertips against the Portland Winterhawks on Saturday night. For the season, Hart in 13-3-1 with a 1.32 GAA, .961 save percentage and five shutouts. If he doesn't win yet another WHL Goaltender of the Week award it will be simply because they decided to give someone else a turn for once.



4) NCAA: A full season-to-date analysis and weekend recap of all Flyers prospects in the NCAA and USHL will be published later today in PhiladelphiaFlyers.com. The biggest news among the Flyers collegiate prospects over the weekend was power forward prospect Wade Allison's hat trick including the OT winner and four-point night in Western Michigan's 4-3 OT win against Miami on Saturday. The 20-year-old Allison is now tied for 2nd across all NCAA conferences with 14 goals on the season.



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MELTZER'S MUSINGS: ON PATRICK, WJC AND ROOKIE ICE TIMES



It is very unlikely that the Flyers will offer the services of rookie forward Nolan Patrick to Team Canada for the upcoming World Junior Championships. This is for a variety of reasons.



First of all, the 19-year-old Patrick is better served continuing his acclimation to the National Hockey League than he is by stepping down a level of competition. Even though WJC play is more structured than its CHL major junior counterpart, it is still not pro-caliber hockey.



Second, the Flyers' depth down the middle is compromised a bit with Sean Couturier and Claude Giroux as linemates. If nothing else right now, Patrick adds to the depth.



Lastly, although Patrick has struggled of late with some ill-timed turnovers and modest ice time (often being benched at even strength in third periods), he is still making progress overall. There have been flashes of his high upside in numerous games and there have been a few games where he's done it over multiple shifts rather than an isolated strong play here and there.



In a what-have-you-done-lately sport, it's easy to have short memories and forget that not every player, even highly talented ones, excels immediately in the NHL. Rookie season output (and ice time) is not a good indicator of player's futures.



Example: Although it may not seem like it right now, Patrick at 19 is markedly ahead in his development path of where ex-Flyer Brayden Schenn was at the same age after being chosen with the fifth overall pick of the 2009 Draft.



At 19, Schenn had an eight-game cup of coffee with LA to start the season (after dressing in one NHL game the previous year) and then tore up the World Junior Championships while also amassing a 99-point (1.68 points-per-game) final junior season with the Brandon Wheat Kings. The next year, after being part of the blockbuster Mike Richards trade that also brought Wayne Simmonds to Philadelphia, some Flyers fans had unrealistic rookie expectations for Schenn. The message boards were filled with misplaced concern because he went into the 2012 Winter Classic still looking for his first NHL goal and first Flyers point. He finally scored in that game and went on to a 12-goal, 18-point season before celebrating his 21st birthday over the summer.



At 19, Patrick already has 20 NHL games, two goals and six points to his credit. He also had two hernia surgeries (one on each side) within a year and was set back by a concussion this season. It's going to take time and it's going to take patience, but there is no cause for alarm that Patrick hasn't made the same immediate NHL impact as some other rookies. Every player develops at his own pace.



The topic of whether the ice time allotments and linemates given by head coach Dave Hakstol to Patrick as a rookie and to 20-year-old Travis Konecny in his two seasons to date have been worse, better or about the same as if there were someone different behind the bench can be debated. It's a hypothetical argument, anyway, because the reality is that Hakstol is the Flyers' coach and his assessments aren't going to change based on public opinion.



One thing that really isn't debatable, though many have put it forth nonetheless, is that the development of Patrick and Konecny as (hopeful) future NHL impact players is being hurt based on their early-career ice times. There is no historical basis of fact to support that idea.



Here is a look at where notable Flyers-drafted players ranked among NHL rookies in ice time as rookies. Three caveats on the data, which were culled from a search of NHL.com historical stats: 1) defensemen typically play more minutes than forwards, so the average ice time rankings of forwards will usually be lower, 2) without additional search filtering for games played (I used 20 as a baseline), rookie callups who only appear in a game or two can creep in ahead of players who dressed more frequently, 3) The NHL has trended younger in average age in recent years, and the traditional "apprenticeship" period of young players has gotten shorter as well.



Even so, there is enough evidence to suggest that being concerned about long-term NHL development based on sparing early-career usage is misplaced worry. Keeping in mind what was laid out above:



* In 1999-2000, 19-year-old Simon Gagne was 34th in rookie ice time among those who played at least 20 games and 51st without the games played criteria. Flyers head coach Roger Neilson frequently elevated veteran Valeri Zelepukin in the lineup over Gagne (an advanced two-way player even as a teenager) when protecting a lead or in tied games during the early months of Gagne's transition from playing center to left wing.



* In 2005-06, 20-year-old Mike Richards was 34th in ice time among rookies who played 20+ games and 46th among all rookies. Teammate Jeff Carter (12:04), also age 20, was 75th overall in rookie ice time with a 20-game minimum and 99th overall without it. That year, Flyers fans had conniptions over head coach Ken Hitchcock's "love affair with Brian Savage" (and, early in the season, Turner Stevenson) and then, after an aging and declining Petr Nedved was acquired as a stopgap with Peter Forsberg frequently out of the lineup, for playing Nedved over Richards and Carter. Change the names to coach Hakstol, Dale Weise (Savage or Stevenson) and Valtteri Filppula (not a perfect comparison but, like Nedved, a longtime above-average player now aging and declining) and it is kind of playing out all over again 12 years later.



* Twenty-year-old Claude Giroux did not make the Flyers' NHL roster to start the 2008-09 season after shredding the Quebec League and starring at the World Junior championships. When he was promoted from the Phantoms to the Flyers, he started 42 games. Giroux ranked 26th in ice time among NHL rookies who appeared in at least 20 games and 45th overall (Toronto defenseman Luke Schenn, at age 18, ranked 2nd at 21:32 per game).



* In 2011-12, 18-year-old Sean Couturier and 20-year-old Brayden Schenn respectively ranked 39th (52nd unfiltered for games) and 40th (53rd) in rookie ice time. Twenty-four-year-old teammate Matt Read ranked 19th among NHL rookies with at least 20 games played.



A couple of notable non-Flyers historical examples who were in somewhat similar situations to 2017 2nd overall pick Patrick. In 1997-98, Joe Thornton was 126th (8:05 average) in rookie TOI after he was the first overall pick of the 1997 Draft. In 1998-99, first overall pick Vincent Lecavalier was 50th (13:39). Also, future NHL star defenseman Zdeno Chara, then a sushi-raw 20-year-old defenseman with the Islanders, was spotted a measly 11:07 of ice time per game in 25 games in 1997-98 and played 48 games in the American Hockey League.



Times changes, philosophies get tweaked and the names change. Nevertheless, the basic principle that the cream will always eventually rise remains as true as ever. Just because a teenage or 20-year-old plays fewer minutes on lower lines and/or is correspondingly less offensively productive than other members of his rookie class, it does not necessarily mean that will be the case over the long haul.



Specific to the Flyers, there will come a day when Nolan Patrick and Travis Konecny and Travis Sanheim (and probably, in the future, the likes of Morgan Frost as well) will be go-to guys in crunch time whether Dave Hakstol or someone else is behind the bench. The Weise and Filppula types will be long gone just as the Zelepukins and Savages of the previous decades were as the high-end young talents blossomed into NHL impact players.



If they don't make it to impact-player level, it won't be because of their rookie usage. It will because they were either not as good as initially believed (whether in skill or hockey sense or both), got derailed due to injuries or other individual matters that can affect a player's career.