Even before the tariffs, China’s vast steel exports to the rest of the world were falling, stemmed by Beijing’s efforts to shrink the industry as well as by improved demand at home. China’s aluminum exports are rising, but at only a fraction of their earlier pace.

China will not give up its old ways overnight, as some local officials look to bolster local employment and short-term economic growth. Even as the Chengkouzhen factory lies dormant, more raw aluminum operations are set to open. Morgan Stanley, the American bank, estimates that Chinese aluminum companies are set to expand capacity by 11 percent, though it noted that the government might discourage some of those projects.



Last year, Beijing propped up the publicly traded subsidiary of debt-laden Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, converting about $2 billion in loans into equity to be held by China’s state-controlled firms. The move was part of a broader effort to keep debt from hobbling the economy.

Still, China contends that it is addressing its wasteful factory problem and that American tariffs are unnecessary. Last week, the government-controlled association that oversees aluminum production called for retaliation against a wide variety of American products.

China accounts for only a small fraction of American aluminum and steel imports. As with the steel industry, aluminum manufacturers in the United States say China sends its cheap aluminum to other markets. That drives down global prices, and prompts producers elsewhere, notably Canada, to ship more to the United States instead.