Increase brought about by inclusion of new offences masks 8% fall in underlying rate in survey of people’s experience of crime



The crime rate for England and Wales has doubled to more than 11.6m offences, according to the latest figures.

The sharp rise in the headline figures is due to the inclusion of an estimated 5.1m online fraud incidents and 2.5m cybercrime offences for the first time.

The crime survey for England and Wales, which is based on people’s experience of crime, shows that the underlying crime rate, excluding cybercrime, continued to fall, by 8% to an estimated 6.5m offences in the 12 months to June.

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Separate police-recorded figures show a 5% increase in crime, including a 25% increase in violence against the person. Sexual offences including rape rose by 41% over the past year, which police say is indicative of a greater willingness of victims to report such crimes.

The growth in sexual offences recorded by the police includes an increase of 10,000 in reported rapes and a 20,000 rise in reports of other sexual offences.

Statisticians said it reflects a change in police attitudes in the past 12 months, with officers now talking about “reports of rape” and no longer referring to “allegations of rape”. But they also point to crime survey evidence that shows the proportion of adults who report being a victim of sexual assault remains under 2%.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the publication of an official estimate of fraud and cybercrime alongside the crime survey of England and Wales follows growing concern that the rise in cybercrime “makes up” for the long-term fall in crime from a peak of 19m offences in 1995 to 6.5m offences by June.

The ONS head of crime, John Flatley, said: “It has been argued that crime has not actually fallen but changed, moving to newer forms of crime not captured by the survey. Clearly some crime has moved online but this should be seen in the context of the long-term fall in traditional crime.”

The first estimate shows that there were up to 5.1m incidents of online fraud involving 3.8 million victims in the past 12 months. Just over half involved some initial financial loss to the victims and more than 62% were compensated in full.

The addition of the online fraud offences to the crime survey figure of 6.5m offences leads to a headline figure of 11.6m estimated criminal incidents, compared with the 7m estimate for the year to June 2014.

An ONS field trial also estimated that there were 2.5m “computer misuse” incidents, where a victim’s computer is infected by a virus.

The statisticians said they had an open mind on whether to include these within the headline crime rate, as often such attacks are blocked by anti-virus protection and not experienced as a crime by the victim. But they do say that phishing and other attacks are offences under the Computer Misuse Act 1990 and could be included.

The inclusion of these 2.5m cybercrime incidents brings the headline total in the official estimates to 14.1m, double the 7m estimated crimes in the year to June 2014.

The detailed figures for online fraud show 14% of victims lost less than £20, 27% lost less than £100 and a further 37% lost less than £500. One per cent lost more than £5,000.

Glen Watson of ONS said: “Although we estimate that there were more than 7m fraud and computer misuse incidents in the past year, this does not necessarily imply a recent rise in crime, as the new measures bring into scope a large volume of offences not previously included in the Crime Survey for England and Wales.

“Furthermore, these new estimates should be seen in the context of a reduction over the past 20 years in the more traditional forms of crime, from 19m incidents a year in 1995 to under 7m a year today.”

The Home Office disputed whether the new estimates for online fraud and cybercrime should be added to the headline figure to create a new total, arguing that they were derived from trial data from a smaller sample and should be treated as first estimates rather than official statistics.

The policing minister, Mike Penning, said: “Crime is falling and it is also changing – and we are committed to tackling fraud and cybercrime. This is not a new threat and the government has been working to get ahead of the game. Since 2010 we have created the National Crime Agency, invested £860m in the National Cyber Security Programme and established Action Fraud to support police by identifying the links between complex scams.

“We need to go further. And we will. We are working in partnership with industry and consumers to ensure crime continues to decrease. The number of people experiencing computer viruses has fallen in recent years, and plastic card fraud is down by more than a quarter since 2009-10, largely as the result of the introduction of chip and pin.

“Having an accurate national picture is critical to informing our ongoing response. Today’s figures represent world-leading work by the ONS, supported by the Home Office, to reveal something we have always known but were previously unable to quantify.”

Alistair Carmichael, the Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesman, said: “It is remarkable that at a time when cybercrime is soaring and fraudsters are finding ever more inventive ways to get access to our personal details, our prime minister and his home secretary are seriously considering weakening encryption that allows our banks to keep our information secure.”