The aftershocks are continuing to reverberate from the political earthquakes of 2016. The seismic events of last year, culminating in the election victory of US President Donald Trump, have generated saturation coverage and acres of commentary. There has since been plenty of soul-searching and hand-wringing from liberal opinion-makers about the dangers of creeping authoritarianism and the advent of fascism.

The tail-end of 2016 saw the Italian referendum in effect become a vote on Matteo Renzi’s premiership. Defeat forced him to resign in yet another scalp in the populist backlash against technocratic, managerialist, globalisation elites. Meanwhile, the rerun of the Austrian election averted the first far-right government in Western Europe since the Second World War, although the Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer still racked up an impressive 46 per cent of the vote. However, it may only be a matter of time before the far right comes to power with three decisive European elections all in 2017.

This month the Dutch election could see the victory of the hard-right nationalist Geert Wilders. Wilders has virulently attacked Islam and Moroccan migrants while promising to ban the Quran and to take back the Netherlands for its people. Running on this platform, Wilders is currently leading in the polls. In May, the French election appears likely to generate another shock upset. French society is fractured with stark economic, social and ethnic divisions and is still reeling from a number of terrorist attacks, which have resulted in a perpetual state of emergency (as in the US) – all of which plays into the hands of Marine Le Pen.

Dutch far-right politician and leader of the Freedom Party Geert Wilders (Getty) (Getty Images)

Many pundits have confidently dismissed a Le Pen victory on the basis that the public are likely to vote strategically against the Front National in the second round. Then again, the same pundits confidently predicted that Brexit would never happen and that Trump would be resoundingly defeated. This misreading of the public mood and the political situation is remarkably complacent. The lesson of 2016 is that voters are quite happy to back candidates perceived to be anti-establishment, promising to deliver real change and to break with the status quo.

Finally in September, the German election could even signal the end of the Angela Merkel era. Voters may well be in a mood to punish the Chancellor over her unpopular policy of mass immigration. Whatever happens, the far right Alternative für Deutschland are likely to make significant gains.

The classification of fascism is a contentious subject. In the case of Trump, his demagoguery, threats to imprison Hillary Clinton, the Muslim ban, plans to repatriate millions of migrants (it should be noted that Obama repatriated 2.5 million migrants), targeting of various social groups and attacks on the media and judiciary are all characteristic features of populism. Such authoritarian tendencies could evolve into ever more sinister permutations. Trump's “America First” inauguration speech was a chilling exhortation of a dark, hard-line vision.

The Bulgarian communist theoretician Georgi Dimitrov defined fascism as “an open terrorist dictatorship of the most reactionary, the most chauvinistic, the most imperialistic elements of the financial capital”. We might settle on a working definition of fascism as the combined power of the state and capital in an authoritarian mould harnessing racial nationalism.

The legacy of Nazism, the Holocaust and the Second World War was “never again” – that such horrors must never be repeated. Yet 70 years on, we appear to be at a critical juncture with one road leading to fascism. Churchill described this historical amnesia as, “that long, dismal catalogue of the fruitlessness of experience and the confirmed unteachability of mankind”.

Many parallels are being drawn with the 1930s. Yet the period 1918-33 is arguably more important. How did the Nazis go from a minor irrelevance to become the party of government in a sophisticated and cultured democracy in the space of 15 years? This is the question posed in the first episode of the seminal series The Nazis: A Warning from History, currently being replayed on BBC4.

Front National leader Marine Le Pen speaks during a campaign rally (Getty) (Getty Images)

Then as now there was an intractable economic crisis of capitalism. For the hyperinflation of Weimar Germany compounded by later crises (most notably the effects of the Wall Street Crash) read the 2007-08 financial crash compounded by austerity. The breakdown of the system leads to political polarisation. In the 1930s, confronted with a choice between Nazism and communism as the solution to the crisis, the German establishment had a strong preference for the former ensuring that they would continue to thrive. German industrialists and the aristocracy also thought (wrongly) that they might be able to control Adolf Hitler.

World news in pictures Show all 50 1 /50 World news in pictures World news in pictures 14 September 2020 Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba and former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida celebrate after Suga was elected as new head of the ruling party at the Liberal Democratic Party's leadership election in Tokyo Reuters World news in pictures 13 September 2020 A man stands behind a burning barricade during the fifth straight day of protests against police brutality in Bogota AFP via Getty World news in pictures 12 September 2020 Police officers block and detain protesters during an opposition rally to protest the official presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus. Daily protests calling for the authoritarian president's resignation are now in their second month AP World news in pictures 11 September 2020 Members of 'Omnium Cultural' celebrate the 20th 'Festa per la llibertat' ('Fiesta for the freedom') to mark the Day of Catalonia in Barcelona. Omnion Cultural fights for the independence of Catalonia EPA World news in pictures 10 September 2020 The Moria refugee camp, two days after Greece's biggest migrant camp, was destroyed by fire. Thousands of asylum seekers on the island of Lesbos are now homeless AFP via Getty World news in pictures 9 September 2020 Pope Francis takes off his face mask as he arrives by car to hold a limited public audience at the San Damaso courtyard in The Vatican AFP via Getty World news in pictures 8 September 2020 A home is engulfed in flames during the "Creek Fire" in the Tollhouse area of California AFP via Getty World news in pictures 7 September 2020 A couple take photos along a sea wall of the waves brought by Typhoon Haishen in the eastern port city of Sokcho AFP via Getty World news in pictures 6 September 2020 Novak Djokovic and a tournament official tends to a linesperson who was struck with a ball by Djokovic during his match against Pablo Carreno Busta at the US Open USA Today Sports/Reuters World news in pictures 5 September 2020 Protesters confront police at the Shrine of Remembrance in Melbourne, Australia, during an anti-lockdown rally AFP via Getty World news in pictures 4 September 2020 A woman looks on from a rooftop as rescue workers dig through the rubble of a damaged building in Beirut. A search began for possible survivors after a scanner detected a pulse one month after the mega-blast at the adjacent port AFP via Getty World news in pictures 3 September 2020 A full moon next to the Virgen del Panecillo statue in Quito, Ecuador EPA World news in pictures 2 September 2020 A Palestinian woman reacts as Israeli forces demolish her animal shed near Hebron in the Israeli-occupied West Bank Reuters World news in pictures 1 September 2020 Students protest against presidential elections results in Minsk TUT.BY/AFP via Getty World news in pictures 31 August 2020 The pack rides during the 3rd stage of the Tour de France between Nice and Sisteron AFP via Getty World news in pictures 30 August 2020 Law enforcement officers block a street during a rally of opposition supporters protesting against presidential election results in Minsk, Belarus Reuters World news in pictures 29 August 2020 A woman holding a placard reading "Stop Censorship - Yes to the Freedom of Expression" shouts in a megaphone during a protest against the mandatory wearing of face masks in Paris. Masks, which were already compulsory on public transport, in enclosed public spaces, and outdoors in Paris in certain high-congestion areas around tourist sites, were made mandatory outdoors citywide on August 28 to fight the rising coronavirus infections AFP via Getty World news in pictures 28 August 2020 Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe bows to the national flag at the start of a press conference at the prime minister official residence in Tokyo. Abe announced he will resign over health problems, in a bombshell development that kicks off a leadership contest in the world's third-largest economy AFP via Getty World news in pictures 27 August 2020 Residents take cover behind a tree trunk from rubber bullets fired by South African Police Service (SAPS) in Eldorado Park, near Johannesburg, during a protest by community members after a 16-year old boy was reported dead AFP via Getty World news in pictures 26 August 2020 People scatter rose petals on a statue of Mother Teresa marking her 110th birth anniversary in Ahmedabad AFP via Getty World news in pictures 25 August 2020 An aerial view shows beach-goers standing on salt formations in the Dead Sea near Ein Bokeq, Israel Reuters World news in pictures 24 August 2020 Health workers use a fingertip pulse oximeter and check the body temperature of a fisherwoman inside the Dharavi slum during a door-to-door Covid-19 coronavirus screening in Mumbai AFP via Getty World news in pictures 23 August 2020 People carry an idol of the Hindu god Ganesh, the deity of prosperity, to immerse it off the coast of the Arabian sea during the Ganesh Chaturthi festival in Mumbai, India Reuters World news in pictures 22 August 2020 Firefighters watch as flames from the LNU Lightning Complex fires approach a home in Napa County, California AP World news in pictures 21 August 2020 Members of the Israeli security forces arrest a Palestinian demonstrator during a rally to protest against Israel's plan to annex parts of the occupied West Bank AFP via Getty World news in pictures 20 August 2020 A man pushes his bicycle through a deserted road after prohibitory orders were imposed by district officials for a week to contain the spread of the Covid-19 in Kathmandu AFP via Getty World news in pictures 19 August 2020 A car burns while parked at a residence in Vacaville, California. Dozens of fires are burning out of control throughout Northern California as fire resources are spread thin AFP via Getty World news in pictures 18 August 2020 Students use their mobile phones as flashlights at an anti-government rally at Mahidol University in Nakhon Pathom. Thailand has seen near-daily protests in recent weeks by students demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha AFP via Getty World news in pictures 17 August 2020 Members of the Kayapo tribe block the BR163 highway during a protest outside Novo Progresso in Para state, Brazil. Indigenous protesters blocked a major transamazonian highway to protest against the lack of governmental support during the COVID-19 novel coronavirus pandemic and illegal deforestation in and around their territories AFP via Getty World news in pictures 16 August 2020 Lightning forks over the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge as a storm passes over Oakland AP World news in pictures 15 August 2020 Belarus opposition supporters gather near the Pushkinskaya metro station where Alexander Taraikovsky, a 34-year-old protester died on August 10, during their protest rally in central Minsk AFP via Getty World news in pictures 14 August 2020 AlphaTauri's driver Daniil Kvyat takes part in the second practice session at the Circuit de Catalunya in Montmelo near Barcelona ahead of the Spanish F1 Grand Prix AFP via Getty World news in pictures 13 August 2020 Soldiers of the Brazilian Armed Forces during a disinfection of the Christ The Redeemer statue at the Corcovado mountain prior to the opening of the touristic attraction in Rio AFP via Getty World news in pictures 12 August 2020 Young elephant bulls tussle playfully on World Elephant Day at the Amboseli National Park in Kenya AFP via Getty World news in pictures 11 August 2020 French Prime Minister Jean Castex is helped by a member of staff to put a protective suit on prior to his visit at the CHU hospital in Montpellier AFP via Getty World news in pictures 10 August 2020 Locals harvest their potatoes as Mount Sinabung spews volcanic ash in Karo, North Sumatra province, Indonesia Antara Foto/Reuters World news in pictures 9 August 2020 Doves fly over the Peace Statue at Nagasaki Peace Park during the memorial ceremony held for the 75th anniversary of the atomic bombing EPA World news in pictures 8 August 2020 Anti-government protesters try to remove concrete wall that installed by security forces to prevent protesters reaching the Parliament square, during a protest against the political elites and the government after this week's deadly explosion in Beirut AP World news in pictures 7 August 2020 A protester throws a stone towards Israeli forces in the village of Turmus Aya, north of Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, following a march by Palestinians against the building of Israeli settlements AFP via Getty World news in pictures 6 August 2020 A woman yells as soldiers block a road for French President Emmanuel Macron's visit the Gemmayzeh neighborhood. The area in Beirut suffered extensive damage from the explosion at the seaport AP World news in pictures 5 August 2020 Damage at the site of Tuesday's blast in Beirut's port area, Lebanon Reuters World news in pictures 4 August 2020 A large explosion in the Lebanese capital Beirut. The blast, which rattled entire buildings and broke glass, was felt in several parts of the city AFP via Getty World news in pictures 3 August 2020 A general view shows the new road bridge in Genoa, Italy ahead of its official inauguration, after it was rebuilt following its collapse on August 14, 2018 which killed 43 people Reuters World news in pictures 2 August 2020 Empty stall spaces are seen hours before a citywide curfew is introduced in Melbourne, Australia EPA World news in pictures 1 August 2020 People take part in a demonstration by the initiative "Querdenken-711" with the slogan "the end of the pandemic - the day of freedom" to protest against the current measurements to curb the spread of COVID-19 in Berlin, Germany AFP via Getty World news in pictures 31 July 2020 Pilgrims circumambulating around the Kaaba, the holiest shrine in the Grand mosque in Mecca. Muslim pilgrims converged today on Saudi Arabia's Mount Arafat for the climax of this year's hajj, the smallest in modern times and a sharp contrast to the massive crowds of previous years Saudi Ministry of Media/AFP World news in pictures 30 July 2020 The Mars 2020 Perseverance mission lifts off at the Kennedy Space Centre in Florida. The mission is part of the USA's largest moon to Mars exploration. Nasa will attempt to establish a sustained human presence on and around the moon by 2028 through their Artemis programme EPA World news in pictures 29 July 2020 A woman refreshes herself in a outdoor pool in summer temperatures in Ehingen, Germany dpa via AP World news in pictures 28 July 2020 Malaysia's former prime minister Najib Razak speaks to the media after he was found guilty in his corruption trial in Kuala Lumpur AFP via Getty World news in pictures 27 July 2020 North Korean leader Kim Jong Un poses for a photograph after conferring commemorative pistols to leading commanding officers of the armed forces on the 67th anniversary of the "Day of Victory in the Great Fatherland Liberation War". Which marks the signing of the Korean War armistice KCNA via Reuters

It is important to understand this complicity of the liberal establishment as an essential ingredient in the rise of authoritarianism. Every attempt on the part of liberals to discredit progressive forces – whether it is the Democratic National Committee rigging the contest against Bernie Sanders to engineer a Hillary Clinton nomination or New Labour elements undermining Jeremy Corbyn – consolidates the grip of the new right.

The original sin of the liberal establishment (and middle class) is the failure to compute that the status quo may be working for them but that it has left millions of their fellow citizens behind and is thus broken. More of the same neo-liberal policies generating widening inequality, stagnating wages and collapsing living standards is not a persuasive vision. The return to a pre-Brexit, pre-Trump world does not resolve these fundamental issues.

The corporate capture and coopting of social democratic parties translated into a betrayal of their working-class base. They have haemorrhaged the support of previously loyal constituencies to populists. One result is that cultural identity – in this case white working-class identity – has replaced class allegiance as represented by the old left.

Daniel Ellsberg, former military analyst who released the Pentagon Papers in 1971, during an anti-war protest in 2010 (Getty) (Getty Images)

The promise of a nostalgic return to a pre-modern world, embodied in traditional values of community, family and religion is associated in former industrial heartlands with monocultural nationalism and evidently has strong appeal. Conversely, in this framework, the uprootedness and dislocation of late modernity engendered by neo-liberal globalisation, the decimation of manufacturing and the fragmented atomisation of hyper-individualism is associated with multicultural secularism.

The #TrumpTheEstablishment YouTube video was remarkably astute propaganda encapsulating this critique of the political, corporate and financial establishment. It might be easy to dismiss this as a misguided, reactionary interpretation of current problems but with the progressive left moribund and the complicity of the liberal establishment, the populism of the new right has only prospered.

Thus, Trump's positive statements about Vladimir Putin may have been astonishing to hear from a US presidential candidate but they were not slips of the tongue. They were calculated as coded messages to his base that he similarly represented strong leadership aiming to “restore” America's greatness and reassert Christian values. Polling corroborates this picture with many Americans prioritising security above democracy.

Capitalism, contrary to its regular pronouncements on freedom, has an uneasy relationship with democracy. Governments, militaries, intelligence agencies and corporations – the global elite, if you like – are largely aware of the current unsustainability of late capitalism on every level: economically, socially and ecologically. The accumulation of authoritarian state power should be viewed as containment of increasingly volatile societies. The coming decades are likely to see more instability, failed states, terrorism and destructive effects of climate change leading to greater conflict, chaos and mass migration.

One can even see the current brand of populist politics – imbued with nationalism and protectionism – as an attempt to pull up the drawbridge in the face of the coming meltdown. Unsurprisingly, hyper-rational super-rich individuals are now investing in emergency bunkers in anticipation of what is to come.

Yet if fascism combines the power of the state with that of capital, then we can see that capital is falling into line behind Trump. This is unsurprising when one considers that his administration of corporate and super-rich individuals will be fiercely pro-business. This enthusiasm is especially evident in the financial and energy sectors with the enticing prospect of greater deregulation. Yet even where there is opposition, for example from the tech sector, it is mainly based on the fact that curtailing immigration will not be conducive to their business model rather than any moral stance. And even in the shiny, happy tech world, there are staunchly pro-Republican conservative elements.

Fascism is generally preceded by the decay of democracy and the rule of law. In other words, it does not happen overnight. Post 9/11, the war on terror brought about the erosion of civil liberties with indefinite detention, torture, the extraordinary rendition programme with a global network of “black-site” prisons into which enemy combatants were disappeared, blanket NSA surveillance and extra-judicial bugsplat drone assassination of targets including US citizens.

Such powers, disproportionate to the threat of terrorism, inevitably begs the question: who are the real enemies of the state? Is this apparatus increasingly going to be deployed against citizens by authoritarian states? A customary mistake has been to focus on the individual figurehead of Trump when it is the national security state that has evolved into a proto-fascist entity. As Edward Snowden presciently warned, all it will now take is for a leader to come in and flick the switch into a totalitarian nightmare. The Trump victory may well herald this transition.

Strategies from the war on terror have already been transplanted into domestic law enforcement. The militarisation of the US police force has seen brutal “Vietnamisation” tactics applied to deprived urban neighbourhoods consisting disproportionately of African Americans. The burgeoning US prison population, consisting of large numbers of black males with the corralling of millions of citizens, appears to be a response to economic failures in order to mitigate against rioting and social unrest.

Brutal tactics have also been applied in the policing of protest as evident with the Black Lives Matter demonstrations in Ferguson and the stand-off at the Standing Rock reservation. A Guardian investigation highlighted that Chicago’s Homan Square facility represented the domestic equivalent of a CIA black site into which US citizens have been disappeared and deprived of their constitutional rights. The lockdown of an entire city following the Boston bombings can be seen as a dress rehearsal for something bigger.

At the end of the First World War, the unexpectedly sudden German surrender was perceived by some soldiers and the public as a betrayal fomented by a conspiracy of Jews and Bolsheviks. In 1919, the failed attempt to establish a Bavarian Soviet republic was also blamed on Jews and Bolsheviks. The conflation of Jews and communism was thus a critical factor in the whipping up of anti-Semitism. Today, the conflation of Muslims and terrorism has been critical in the whipping up of Islamophobia.

In the UK, decades of the rhetoric of tabloid hate speech have generated antipathy and intolerance reaching fever pitch post-Brexit. The steady stream of jingoistic propaganda is replete with images of “hordes” of migrants and “barbarians” at the gate. This is textbook scapegoating, deflecting the blame from the financial elite responsible for the 2007-08 crash on to those at the bottom. It is an inverted reality of how capitalism operates.

Then again, we should not be too surprised. A publication such as the Daily Mail has historical form with its support for Oswald Mosley’s blackshirts and proprietor Viscount Rothermere’s dalliance with Hitler. Yet its “Enemies of the People” headline directed against the judiciary presaged terrifying things to come.

The representation of Muslims and refugees in mainstream discourse as variously stray dogs, swarms and cockroaches is disturbing. This dehumanisation has very dangerous historical precedents in that it legitimises the perpetration of violence against the other. The moment that one denotes others as non-human then it follows that they can be treated as such.

During the Republican candidate debates, both the concept of “special identification” for Muslims and the closures of mosques were discussed with ominous echoes of the past. Hot on the heels of the executive order on an immigration ban for seven majority-Muslim countries, proposals for a Muslim database could be in the offing. As Daniel Ellsberg, who leaked the Pentagon Papers, puts it: “One more 9/11, and then I believe we will have hundreds of thousands of detentions. Middle Easterners and Muslims will be put in detention camps or deported.”

The spectre of authoritarianism is spreading across the globe. The Sino-Russian model has been imported into Turkey and Eastern Europe. Yet ultimately, 21st century fascism will not take the same form as 20th century fascism. As Halford E Luccock put it: “When and if fascism comes to America it will not be labelled ‘made in Germany’; it will not be marked with a swastika; it will not even be called fascism; it will be called, of course, Americanism.” That moment may now be upon us but 21st century fascism will not necessarily be characterised by concentration camps, the Gestapo and jackboots. The surveillance state may mean more insidious control with an Orwellian scenario of mass apathy and assent from demoralised, depoliticised subjects.

It may well be that catastrophe, in the form of fascism and even war, is the surest route to transformative change. In fact, this is the old left canard that destructive forces are a catalyst towards building a better future. In the wake of the Trump victory, Slavoj Zizek posted a video making a similar argument. Yet clearly the desirable outcome is to avert such catastrophic scenarios.

The question is what form any opposition will take with the present resistance at an embryonic stage. However, progressive mobilisation often occurs in response to the rise of the far right and an anti-Trump coalition is already coalescing. A mass movement prepared to engage in direct action and civil disobedience will be necessary. In the words of Trump, one needs to fight fire with fire. A set of post-capitalist ideas around a green economy, full automation and public, democratic control of the economy are likely to provide the framework for optimistic and visionary manifestos.

In the final lines of The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui, satirising the rise of Hitler, Bertolt Brecht wrote: “Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the bastard is dead, the bitch that bore him is again in heat.”

These lines are sadly just as relevant today. The “bitch” is capitalism and the “bitch in heat” is capitalism in crisis. Never again we say. Could it happen again? Of course not we reply thinking of the better angels of our nature. But I wouldn’t count against it.