Arizona reported eight more deaths from COVID-19 on Saturday, a day after a widely respected model of the disease's progression predicted that the state had passed its likely peak in hospital resources and deaths.

Arizona's total identified cases rose to 4,719, with 177 known deaths, according to the most recent figures from the Arizona Department of Health Services. That's an increase of 212 confirmed cases, or 4.7%, since Friday, when the state reported 4,507 identified cases and 169 deaths.

Maricopa County's confirmed cases now exceed 2,400, according to state numbers. All of Arizona's 15 counties have reported at least one case.

A model from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation that shows nationwide and international projections was updated Friday and shows a significantly different path for the disease in Arizona than earlier projections.

The institute's Arizona model estimates "peak resource" use was on April 10 — that means hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators were at their greatest use that day. Based on projections, Arizona has enough beds to meet the continued demand. The earlier projection was April 30.

The projected peak in deaths per day was April 5, with 12 deaths that day, even though Arizona surpassed that number Friday. The earlier projection was May 2.

The model predicts Arizona will have 267 COVID-19 deaths by Aug. 4, compared with an earlier projection of 1,005 deaths by Aug. 4.

State officials said in late March they expected cases to peak in April and hospitalizations to peak in May.

The latest Arizona data

More detailed data, including cases by ZIP code and race/ethnicity, was first released by the state Sunday and continues to be updated.

The number of Arizona cases likely is higher than official numbers suggest because of limits on supplies and available tests, which led to the state issuing guidelines that restrict who should be tested.

As of Saturday morning, the state reported death totals from these counties: 70 in Maricopa, 56 in Pima, 25 in Coconino (county officials earlier reported 26), 11 in Navajo, six in Pinal and four in Apache.

Data was not available Saturday morning for deaths in Mohave, Yuma, Yavapai or La Paz counties.

Of the statewide identified cases overall, 47% are men and 53% are women. Previously, the majority of cases were men.

Men made up a higher percentage of deaths. As of Friday's state data, 58% of the deaths were men and 42% were women.

People 65 and older made up 129 of the 177 total deaths. While race/ethnicity is unknown for 28% of deaths, 40% of deaths were white, 18% were Native American and 10% were Hispanic or Latino.

The state Health Department website said both state and private laboratories have completed a total of 51,045 tests for COVID-19, according to the number posted Saturday on the agency website.

Most COVID-19 tests come back negative, the state's dashboard shows, with 8% of tests coming back positive.

Maricopa County’s Department of Public Health provided more detailed information on its 2,492 cases Saturday (the state reported its cases at 2,491):

Confirmed cases increased by 107 from Friday to Saturday. Deaths increased by one, to 70.

The cases are 49% men and 51% women.

297 cases have been linked to residents of long-term care facilities. Of those, 82 people (28%) have been hospitalized and 40 people (13%) have died.

Sixty long-term care facilities have at least one positive case.

Sixty-eight people under age 19 have tested positive, making up 3% of positive cases.

People aged 20 to 44 make up 38% of positive cases, followed by people 45-64 years old at 33% and people 65 or older at 26%.

18%, or 459 cases, have been hospitalized.

6%, or 143 cases, have been in the intensive care unit. Previously that number was 144. The hospitalization and ICU numbers include any cases that were in the hospital or ICU at any time during their illness, the county says.

The likelihood of being hospitalized or in the ICU increases with age. Of those aged 20-44, 87 (9%) were hospitalized and 23 (2%) were in the ICU. For people aged 45-64, 156 (19%) were hospitalized and 51 (6%) were in the ICU. Among those over age 65, there were 214 (34%) hospitalized and 69 (11%) in the ICU.

Of the 69 deaths in Maricopa County, one was aged 20-44, 11 were aged 45-64 and 58 were over age 65.

Cases rise in other counties

According to Saturday's state update, Pima County reported 856 identified cases. Navajo County reported 452 cases, while Coconino reported 314. Pinal County reported 235, Apache County reported 169, Yavapai County reported 72, Mohave County reported 52 and Yuma County reported 24 (county officials previously reported 28).

Cochise County reported 22 cases, Santa Cruz County reported 16, La Paz County reported five, Gila County reported seven, and Graham County and Greenlee County each reported two, according to state numbers.

All counties but La Paz, Graham and Greenlee saw an increase in their numbers from Friday.

The Navajo Nation announced on Saturday evening it had 1,197 identified cases, with the death count remaining at 44. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah.

The Navajo Nation's 57-hour weekend curfews remain in effect until Monday, April 20, at 5 a.m., officials said.

Navajo Nation issues order requiring masks to be worn in public

The Navajo Department of Health on Friday issued an emergency order requiring all individuals on the Navajo Nation to wear protective masks in public to help prevent further spread of the virus.

Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez said in online town hall sessions earlier this week that the order would be issued, encouraging all residents to purchase or make masks to comply.

"Some may not like it, but with the number of positive COVID-19 cases increasing, we have to be proactive in addressing the pandemic," Nez wrote in a statement.

He added that Navajo Nation leadership would continue to consider "even more aggressive requirements" to curb the spread of the virus.

"Some individuals think we're using scare tactics or extreme measures, but we are losing lives here on the Navajo Nation and I'm going to do everything I can to help save lives," he said.

Nez said Navajo Nation officials continue to recommend that residents stay home as much as possible.

A press release announcing the measure also mentioned the weekend curfew, which is being enforced by road checkpoints. It said officials would issue citations for violations, which could include up to $1,000 in fines and/or 30 days in jail.

The requirement to wear a mask in public will remain in effect until further notice.

22 cases in Arizona prisons

An online dashboard by the Arizona Department of Corrections said 22 inmates have tested positive for COVID-19 as of Friday. The 22 cases are at these four facilities: 13 in Florence, five in Marana, three in Eyman and one in Tucson.

The department has tested 124 inmates as of Friday, with 74 negative cases and 38 pending out of a total population of over 41,500. It wasn't immediately clear Saturday why the breakdown did not match the total numbers provided by ADC.

Both legal and nonlegal visitations have been suspended through May 13, at which point the department will reassess. The department said CenturyLink is giving inmates two additional 15-minute calls for free during each each week visitation is restricted.

Reach the reporter at bfrank@arizonarepublic.com or 602-444-8529. Follow her on Twitter @brieannafrank.

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