Top story: No-deal Brexit would chop 8% from growth

Good morning – it’s Warren Murray pulling it all together for you today.

Brexit will be bad for the economy however you slice it, with Britain losing out even if it manages to cling on to single-market membership, according to a leaked government analysis.

Over the next 15 years, national income would be 8% lower under a no-deal scenario, around 5% lower with a free-trade agreement with the EU and about 2% lower with a soft Brexit option of staying in the single market, says the briefing paper. It was meant to be shown confidentially to cabinet ministers this week. David Davis previously told parliament that Brexit impact assessments covering 58 sectors of the economy did not exist.

Jeremy Corbyn, meanwhile, has been told to square up, stop hiding behind leftwing myths and start championing the single market. The Labour leader has argued that continued membership could hamper his policies such as state aid to industry and renationalising rail services. Labour MPs Heidi Alexander and Alison McGovern say this is not the case. Introducing a collection of essays on the topic, they write that the argument for staying in the common market is “there to be won” and “the fact that we continue to hedge our bets … is not doing anyone any favours”. Our editorial says the Tories’ disarray on Brexit creates a situation “ready-made for Labour to articulate an alternative approach that speaks for Britain’s interests”. Germany’s outgoing ambassador to London, meanwhile, says Brexit has been fed by a nostalgic image of Britain standing alone in the second world war: “It is a nice story, but does not solve any problem of today.”

State of Trump’s union – It would not seem the wildest kind of speculation to say that Donald Trump will deliver a ringing endorsement of himself when he makes the State of the Union address later today. It will be “a big speech, an important speech,” said the Potus, tantalisingly, engaging in a last-minute warm-up of his oratorial skills. Trump is due to announce an infrastructure plan and many are wondering if he will pledge to repair a country that seems to be crumbling around them. In keeping with tradition, the White House and congressional lawmakers have invited guests to help punctuate a political point. Trump’s include a welder benefiting from the tax cuts and a police officer who adopted a child from parents addicted to opioids. The Democrats’ include two dozen “Dreamers” whom Trump made vulnerable to deportation and one of the transgender soldiers the president wants to prevent serving. Democratic congresswoman Lois Frankel has asked female members to wear black in a display of solidarity with the #MeToo movement.

Return of the slum landlord – The Guardian’s revelation of the squalid housing conditions faced by more than half a million tenants has predictably led to condemnation of the government from Labour – but also signs of action. The Ministry of Housing says it is backing a private member’s bill from Labour backbencher Karen Buck that would “require that residential rented accommodation is provided and maintained in a state of fitness for human habitation”. Sajid Javid, the housing minister, and his predecessor, Dominic Raab, are among 309 Conservative MPs who have previously voted against it. Buck’s bill is also backed by the Residential Landlords Association, which represents private landlords. Buck has said she hopes time can be found in the parliamentary schedule to enact her measures.

Aunty ‘doesn’t do equal pay’ – The BBC is to adopt a pay cap of £320,000 for news presenters as it tries to address a row about equal pay. A group of 170 women at the BBC have called for an apology, back pay and pension adjustments over claims that the corporation broke equality laws by failing to pay them fairly. The BBC Women campaign group has listed 14 examples including women being paid less than men for the same job, and inferior contracts lacking sick pay or maternity leave. An overhaul of the BBC’s pay framework is due to be announced today and the corporation is expected to admit mistakes – but deny systemic problems or illegality. The National Union of Journalists is leading a collective grievance on behalf of more than 120 BBC employees, while a City law firm is representing more than 10 senior women at the broadcaster.

Home counties burglar – A string of terrifying robberies in which victims were bound, badly beaten and threatened with a shotgun may have been carried out by an ex-soldier, police believe. A woman had her jaw broken and a tooth knocked out in one of the seven burglaries, which have taken place roughly every six months since November 2014 in the home counties. Police say CCTV footage has shown the culprit stakes out a property for weeks before surprising residents and forcing them to give up valuables. DI Dee Fielding, from Surrey police, said: “We do not believe this to be the work of an opportunist burglar, but someone who has specialist knowledge and skills – possibly ex-forces or from a similar background.” The man officers are looking for is white, of stocky build and about 1.8 metres (6ft) tall with a southern accent.

They started, now they’re finished – Mastermind has banned Harry Potter and Fawlty Towers as special subjects after running out of sufficiently challenging questions about them. Parents who have been hot-housing their children in the complete works of Roald Dahl or full Father Ted canon with hopes of them one day hoisting the glass bowl will also be disappointed to hear those topics are out as well. Contestants on the quiz show need to find something else to become impressively/boringly well versed in – neither too narrow (Romeo and Juliet) nor too broad (the entire works of Shakespeare), says Mastermind producer Mark Helsby. Also revealed: Mastermind does not repeat subjects from one series to the next.

Lunchtime read: Leader of the flat-pack

After the death of Ingvar Kamprad, the Guardian’s design critic Oliver Wainwright looks at how his domestic stagecraft sparked a revolution – and nominates his Ikea top 10, from meatballs to the coffee table we’ve all owned at some point.

Our editorial says Kamprad’s pitching of his self-assembly ethos as a deal from which both seller customer could gain made him one of the great capitalists of history.

Sport

Phil Neville knew he was in for a tough fixture, speaking publicly for the first time since he was controversially appointed as manager of the England’s women’s team, but he remained composed for an hour, when he was violently upended by a robust but fair challenge. Conor O’Shea has claimed Italy did not get the credit they deserved for giving England an almighty scare at Twickenham last year, expressing his frustration that the focus on his side’s “no ruck” tactics distracted from their performance. Trevor Bayliss was measured when asked to dissect his England side’s performance after a commanding 4-1 ODI series win in Australia, saying he would not be happy about their chances if the World Cup started tomorrow but admitting they are favourites. The UK Anti-Doping Agency is to receive a £6m cash injection, boosting its annual budget by more than 50%, after high-profile cases highlighted its relative lack of funding and power. And, in a significant coup for women’s cricket, the ICC World Twenty20, to be hosted in Australia in 2020, will see the women’s and men’s competitions receive equal billing, with both finals to be held at the 100,000-capacity MCG.

Business

The US private equity firm Blackstone Group LP is in advanced talks to buy an approximate 55% stake in the financial and risk business of Thomson ReutersCorp for more than $17bn (£12bn), three sources familiar with the matter have said. And, as Janet Yellen’s presides today over her last rate-setting meeting at the Federal Reserve, Richard Partington takes a look back at the legacy of the first woman to lead the US central bank.

The pound has been trading at $1.402 and €1.135 overnight.

The papers

A lucky dip today, with a different lead on virtually every front page. The Guardian starts off with the German ambassador saying the British view of its second world war role has contributed to eurosceptism and the Brexit vote. The Times reports that Theresa May is facing calls to quit, again, while the Metro says Angela Merkel has mocked the PM over her Brexit indecision.

The Daily Telegraph and the Mirror both recount claims that women at the BBC faced threats after asking for equal pay. The Daily Mail leads on news that the so-called “night watcher” burglar targeting home counties millionaires could be a former soldier. Coffee giant JAB Holding will buy Dr Pepper, according to the Financial Times, as the i warns that the British have the dubious honour of the worst diet in Europe. The Sun leads on a ruling by Kelly Brook that “darts girls” who escort male players on to the stage really aren’t sexist and the Daily Express has found another potential cure for Alzheimer’s.

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