Panicky Republicans, most notably House Speaker Paul Ryan, who are cutting ties with embattled presidential candidate Donald Trump in favor of focusing on down-ballot races, risk electoral disaster if past results are any guide.

Abandoning Trump — who is under fire over sexually charged comments caught on an open mic 11 years ago — could threaten to turn a win by Democrat Hillary Clinton into a landslide. In past landslide elections, the winners often have demonstrated long coattails that pulled numerous fellow party members into office.

“The only thing these cowards in Congress fear is having to get a real job … We all win together or we all go down together.”

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President Obama’s seven-point victory over John McCain in 2008 helped the Democrats pick up 23 seats in the House of Representatives and eight in the Senate.

The Republicans gained 34 seats in the House and 12 in the Senate — enough for the party to claim a majority in the chamber for the first time since 1954 — when Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter by 9.5 points in 1980s. Four years later, when Reagan won re-election by 8 points, the Republicans enjoyed a net gain of 16 seats in the House.

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Lyndon Johnson’s blowout win over Barry Goldwater and a fractured Republican Party in 1964 helped the Democrats win 37 additional seats in the House.

A double-digit victory by Clinton could create a tsunami so large that it wipes out many vulnerable Republicans, whether they stood with Trump or not, some experts warn.

“The problem that you run into is turnout,” said University of New Hampshire Survey Center Director Andrew Smith, noting that if dispirited Trump supporters skip the election in large numbers, it could imperil other Republicans on the ballot.

Fired-Up Trump Supporters Are Watching

The turnout issue can cut both ways for Republicans who are considering fleeing from Trump. Deflated backers of a candidate may be less enthusiastic to show up to vote, but Trump has consistently boasted higher enthusiasm among his core backers than Clinton. Republicans who buck Trump could suffer from offending these die hard supporters — causing them to vote for the GOP presidential nominee and then skip voting for down-ballot Republicans as retribution for the betrayal.

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A deluge of callers to “The Laura Ingraham Show” on Tuesday served as a reminder of that danger for Republican candidates who have abandoned, or who are considering abandoning, Trump.

One caller said he called Utah Sen. Mike Lee’s office to call him a “sanctimonious stooge.”

A caller from Pennsylvania said he would not vote for Sen. Pat Toomey if he does not embrace Trump. “I’ll vote for Trump. But I am not going to vote for Sen. Toomey until he endorses or supports Donald Trump,” he said. “Enough of these pathetic Republicans who are only concerned with their own careers.”

Another caller said: “The only thing these cowards in Congress fear is having to get a real job, so he’s going to have to play tough with them and show them they are with him or they’re against him. We all win together or we all go down together.”

The Candidates Still Matter

Smith, of the University of New Hampshire, said the popularity of House and Senate candidates still matters, as do the individual dynamics of each state. He said New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, locked in a tight battle with Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan, benefits from incumbency and the fact that Republicans in the Granite State tend to be older, regular voters who show up despite the circumstances. Republican candidates in states where GOP voters are poorer and less educated could have bigger problems.

[lz_table title=”Senate Seats Changing Hands Since 2000″ source=””]GOP Presidential Nominees v. GOP Senate Nominees

|2004 Election

State,Senate Nominee,Presidential Nominee

*Colorado,46.5%,51.7%

√*Florida,49.5%,52/1%

√*Georgia,57.9%,58%

*Illinois,27%,44.5%

√*Louisiana,51%,56.7%

√*North Carolina,52%,56%

√*South Carolina,53.7%,58%

√South Dakota,50.5%,59.9%

|

|2008 Election

State,Senate Nominee,Presidential Nominee

Alaska,46.6%,59.2%

*Colorado,42.5%,52.8%

Minnesota,42%,43.8%

*New Mexico,38.7%,41.8%

New Hampshire,45.2%,44.5%

*North Carolina,45.6%,49.4%

Oregon,45.6%,40.4%

*Virginia,33.7%,46.3%

|

|2012 Election

State,Senate Nominee,Presidential Nominee

Indiana,44.2%,54.1%

*§Maine,30.7%,41%

Massachusetts,46.3%,37.5%

√*Nebraska,57.8%,59.8%

|

*Open seat

√Previously held by Democrat

§Seat won by independent

[/lz_table]

“It depends on how tightly bound voters are to the candidate in the race,” he said.

Since 2000, 12 incumbent senators have lost re-election in presidential election years, and another 17 open seats have been changed parties. In almost all of those races, the Republican candidates — win or lose — ran behind the GOP presidential nominees in their states. In only six of the races did the Republican candidate get a higher percentage of the vote than the Republican nominee.

The biggest gap was in the 2012 Massachusetts Senate race, where incumbent Scott Brown ran almost 9 points head of presidential candidate Mitt Romney. But it was not enough to save his seat; Democrat Elizabeth Warren defeated him. The next-closest margin was in the 2000 Nevada Senate race. Republican John Ensign won his race to replace a retiring Democrat with 55.1 percent of he vote, 5.6 points better than George W. Bush.

Those numbers suggest that it will be difficult for Republicans in tight races to win if Trump loses their states by more than 8 or 9 points.

Republican leaders are divided over how to respond. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) said this week that he would no longer defend Trump and instead concentrate on helping congressional Republicans. But Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus told committee members in a conference call Monday that the party remained committed to Trump and continues to coordinate with the campaign.

Alabama Republican Chairwoman Terry Lathan, who was on the conference call, said that is the right approach. She accused the media of exaggerating anti-Trump sentiment within the party and said the GOP would not abandon the nominee.

“It’s not what’s happening. In fact, it’s just the opposite … It’s full steam ahead,” she said. “We’re going to double down with Donald Trump.”

Lathan said cutting off Trump would be a big mistake.

“We’ve had millions and millions of record-breaking voters and new voters who came to the primaries because of Donald Trump,” she said.

Mark Peterson, a political science professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, said some Republican candidates in districts where Trump is unpopular feel the need to separate themselves from the nominee.

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“It’s absolutely an unprecedented situation for either party to have someone at the top of the ticket who is so toxic,” he said. “They’re stuck in a situation for which there is no historical example.”

For party leaders, the question is, “What’s going to be the most protective of the down-ballot races?” Peterson said. “I don’t know if there’s a right answer to that question.”

Smith, of the University of New Hampshire, noted that Clinton also is unpopular with voters and likely will have her own problems. Peterson, the UCLA professor, said Republican candidates might benefit if lukewarm Clinton supporters who are mainly motivated by opposition to Trump believe the Democratic nominee has the race wrapped up.

“The more that Hillary Clinton is ahead of Donald Trump in the polls, in some ways the harder it is for Hillary Clinton and the Democrats to motivate their base,” he said.