Where COVID-19 Will Hurt Most: Mapping Estimated Economic Fallout from the Coronavirus

If you’d like to jump straight to the projected economic impact by neighborhood in your city, enter your zip code below:

As everyone knows, COVID-19, formerly known as the Novel Coronavirus, has caused many deaths, some panic, and many stay-in-place orders. With Best Neighborhood’s extensive data by area, we wanted to try to map the economic damage using the most up-to-date data. Below you can see which states are likely to be most economically impacted by the virus in the mid-to-long term.

COVID-19 Economic Impact by State





Color-blind friendly version here.

COVID-19 Economic Impact by City

We didn’t stop at the state level, however. We’re now able to announce a new and highly-detailed map of where we project the most damage to real people from the economic downturn in every US city. If you’d like to see where your city will be impacted most, simply enter your zip code.

For example, below is our projection for Los Angeles.

Areas in red are at the greatest list from economic damage due to unemployment and loss of business. Areas in green will have moderate impact.

Most and Least Impacted Places: From States to Neighborhoods

Below are the cities and states we believe will see the most economic damage. More granular details for neighborhoods are available if you enter your zip code. Note: we do not store your zip code or any personal information.

States: Worst Economic Impact Nevada Michigan Indiana Wisconsin Ohio

Large cities were defined as cities with over 1 million people in the metro area.

*While cities like New York may see the greatest spread, far more people are expected to maintain their jobs and livelihoods in the mid-to-long term. This is not a short-term economic impact analysis.

Cities were defined as any place with over 100,000 people.

Additional Findings

Many small cities will likely be hit hardest . Among the projected hardest-hit cities and towns of all sizes, the top 77 are small towns with populations under 10,000. For example, the small town of Jackpot, Nevada sits near the Idaho state line. People aren’t flocking to casinos or any crowded space right now, so the impact to the hospitality industry is projected to be significant. We estimate that in the mid-term, over 22% of Jackpot’s jobs are at risk.

. Among the projected hardest-hit cities and towns of all sizes, the top 77 are small towns with populations under 10,000. For example, the small town of Jackpot, Nevada sits near the Idaho state line. People aren’t flocking to casinos or any crowded space right now, so the impact to the hospitality industry is projected to be significant. We estimate that in the mid-term, over 22% of Jackpot’s jobs are at risk. Larger cities will likely be hit most on average . On average large cities will lose about 5% more from the local economy. The amount varies much more with small cities, however, because a single industry can dominate a small town. In statistical terms, the standard deviation for small towns is almost twice that of cities.

. On average large cities will lose about 5% more from the local economy. The amount varies much more with small cities, however, because a single industry can dominate a small town. In statistical terms, the standard deviation for small towns is almost twice that of cities. Manufacturing and construction-dependent states are also likely to hurt. Nevada is likely to be hit hard, and one would expect this with a decline in tourism, dining, gambling, and staying in hotels. Surprisingly, many cities in Wisconsin (Barboo, Marinette, Green Bay, etc.) and Indiana (Middlebury, Elkhart, Evansville, etc.) are also likely to be hard hit between tourism, construction, and manufacturing projections.

Methodology

These projections are based on two things: recent seasonally-adjusted recession data by industry, and expert projections of economic harm by industry. Airlines, casinos, and hotels, for example, have been hit very hard by stay-at-home orders and general traveler concerns. The short-term loss of revenue is projected at 70-80% for this last week. We do not expect this to continue indefinitely, but the industry will be slow to rebound until travelers feel safe. We took expert projections by industry for the 6 to 12 month timeframe, and chose the most conservative reasonable figure.

We did not attempt to graph the short-term economic impact of the virus. These impacts are too dependent on where the virus spreads and what politicians do about it. At this point, those projections would be shots in the dark. Instead, we looked at where a short term drop in employment and purchasing will lead to lasting economic fallout. For example, there are many Americans who were already living paycheck to paycheck: almost 80% by some estimates. Many have been unable to work, and are not being paid during that time. Without more serious government intervention at a scale we’re unlikely to see, these people will still have to pay rents and mortgages, return to work, and make late payments on debts. This will necessarily have a “trickle-up” impact on landlords, banks, and even new-home construction.

Our projections are independent of initial jobless claims, which were released recently. It is interesting to note how closely our list of best and worst cities aligns with initial jobless claims, even this early. Overall, we took a very conservative low-impact approach. We believe these are good estimates if people continue staying at home for the next 4 to 6 weeks. If the effective shutdown continues for more than two months, our projections will need revision.

The Future, Updates, and Government Assistance

The response to the spread of this virus has been unlike anything we’ve ever seen in world history. There is no precedent. We feel confident in the quality of our estimates, but remember that these are estimates, and very early ones at that. We will continue to monitor the situation and update forecasts as more data becomes available.

A large portion of the economic hardship has been undertaken by those who are financially least secure: low-income young people earning hourly wages. It remains to be seen whether the most economically vulnerable people, who have been working to protect the most physically vulnerable people, will receive relief from the US government, but projections will be updated to show lessened damage if relief is significant.