Josh Freed

Guest columnist

The past year has brought a deluge of headlines proclaiming—or perhaps aiming to create — a split in the Democratic Party on climate change. Writers frequently attribute that divide to today’s digital politics, with activists who are deeply engaged on social media holding vastly different views than the majority who are less active online.

This view of “Democrats divided” holds that Extremely Online Democrats have staked out hard-line positions far to the left of the rank and file; that they demand 100% renewable energy, reject carbon-free sources like nuclear and carbon capture, and will accept nothing less than complete decarbonization within a decade.

But we wanted to know: are the headlines right? Are Democrats really so divided on climate?

We set out to test the hypothesis, and the results might surprise news readers. In fact, our new poll with Change Research found that Democrats are united around a desire for urgent, ambitious climate action — and that they’re pragmatic and open-minded about solutions.

We surveyed voters who will weigh in on the 2020 Democratic primary — likely voters in the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, as well as the large Super Tuesday states of California and Texas — with a special focus on those Extremely Online Democrats — the ones who are especially engaged on social media.

Unsurprisingly, Extremely Online Democrats see the climate crisis as a pressing challenge, in large part because they are already feeling its tangible effects. Seventy-one percent say that climate change is affecting their community right now.

And this urgency is shaping voters’ electoral priorities. Ninety percent of these voters say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who makes climate change a top priority, and 57% say they would be “much more likely.” Among voters under 35, that number jumps to 63%.

But here’s where the prevailing wisdom breaks down: activist Democrats’ climate urgency is driving pragmatism, not dogmatism.

First, while they recognize the need for immediate, ambitious action, and want to eliminate carbon emissions as quickly as possible, these voters also recognize the problem will not be solved overnight. Just 18% of respondents think full decarbonization in 10 years is very or somewhat likely.

Second, to speed decarbonization, they want the United States to bring every carbon-free technology to the fight against climate change.

Specifically, 55% prioritize a transition to 100% clean energy, which means renewables but also nuclear power, carbon capture, and other clean energy technologies. Just 36% want renewables only. And 74% say they would be more likely to support a candidate with a climate plan that included nuclear and carbon capture alongside renewables like wind and solar.

Taken together, these numbers show a Democratic electorate whose views on climate change are much more complex and much more unified than the headlines would have us believe.

As more and more Democratic presidential candidates continue to release climate plans that are bold, ambitious and technology-inclusive, it’s clear that not only is a consensus growing among party leaders, but that the solutions are being driven by what voters actually want—and what science demands.

Here’s the bottom line: Democrats across the spectrum are united in prioritizing bold, ambitious action to reduce carbon emissions. And we should follow their lead, staying unified throughout the campaign and the debates, to ensure we get the job done.

Josh Freed is senior vice president for the Clean Energy Program at Third Way.

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