Don’t Do What Dandy Dons Did - Why didn’t Aberdeen win the Premiership?

So the title race is well and truly over. Celtic are Champions, Aberdeen are not after having had the greatest opportunity a non Glasgow club has had in over 25 years to snaffle the title away from the central belt. Celtic may have stumbled over the line, but only because Aberdeen stumbled before them and it’s time to take a look back at the reasons why…

1 - Missing Adam Rooney

Aberdeen are nothing if not predictable. Get the ball to the wings and get it in the box where your big, strong striker can turn and finish, win the ball in the air or lay off for a team mate. Adam Rooney, built like a battering ram as he is, is the perfect blunt object with which to execute this sort of game plan - agile enough to make anything in the air his and strong enough to hold off most challenges. With Adam Rooney, Aberdeen aren’t just better at executing Plan A, his bulk also offers a long ball plan B as he can fend off most defenders he comes up against.

Without Rooney have come the issues. While latter season replacement Simon Church represented an excellent acquisition in terms of Plan A, producing goals vs Celtic and Hearts in big games to enhance his CV. Unlike Rooney, however, Church hasn’t got the size to impose himself at set pieces - assists for his goals come from Jonny Hayes in open play not Niall McGinn at set plays. Before Church, there was David Goodwillie who worked but had neither the size nor the predatory inclination to work goals for himself. For Aberdeen to exceed what they’ve achieved this season, they either need to find another Adam Rooney to make sure Plan A works at all times or to bring in a striker who can be fed in behind defenders from through balls from McLean, etc so as to have a Plan C if needed.

2 - Midfield depth

Aberdeen have suffered from a lack of numbers in midfield this season. While having Barry Robson as your back up can be good on his classy days, overall he likely cost Aberdeen more points than he earned after elbowing Scott McDonald. Graeme Shinnie is a left back but he has been shoved into midfield (where he has performed very well) leaving Considine at left back and, as a result, leaving Aberdeen down an attacking threat.

There have been excuses - Ryan Jack has been injured quite a bit plus the Kenny McLean holding midfielder experiment as tried last season was dispensed with totally. And there have been admirable filling ins - already we’ve mentioned Shinnie but Willo Flood has had his best season in many a year and Craig Storie looks a player - but as hard as they’ve worked, they aren’t players who are going to win you a league. Aberdeen’s lack of depth there is worrying, especially when you consider the age of Robson and Flood - both long past 30. The Ryan Jack and Kenny McLean parts of the midfield triangle pick themselves but Aberdeen lack that third top class midfielder to dictate play from deep.

I have suggested a couple of names before (Ali Crawford, John McGinn) but it really doesn’t matter who comes in - Aberdeen have to rectify that issue just to stand still next season.

3 - Defensive inconsistency, part one

Paul Quinn was an integral part of Aberdeen’s perfect start to the season. However, once Mark Reynolds was back fit after an injury obtained in Europa League qualifying, Derek McInnes tried to get him back in the team as quickly as he could. Reynolds first three league games back? 1 point from 9.

That isn’t to paint Paul Quinn as Beckenbauer reincarnate or Mark Reynolds as Efe Ambrose, but merely to point out that once Aberdeen started altering the back line, it took time for their defensive solidity to return which directly led to their collapse during October and the total loss of momentum after winning their first eight games. Paul Quinn is now back at Ross County but one can only imagine that, had Derek McInnes used more patience in returning Reynolds to the first team, results could have and should have been much better. Aberdeen simply react poorly to a change in the back-line.

4 - Defensive Inconsistency, part two

It would be wrong to mention the issues Aberdeen have defensively and not say the words “Ash Taylor” at least once.

It is perhaps harsh to do so. After all, at SPFL level, what defender doesn’t have an almighty Rick in them from time to time? But Taylor is more streaky than most and, as see most recently in the game against Hearts, he isn’t always the most aware of players. He’s hardly the only one and, compared to much of the rest of the division, is still in the higher echelon of SPFL centre backs.

However, for a side like Aberdeen who rely on marginal results (of their 33 games, 20 have been either draws or decided by a 1 goal margin - 4 more than Celtic), having the odd mistake is often the difference between dropping points and not. The alternatives of Reynolds and Considine aren’t perfect, and Taylor is also a big threat at set pieces given his considerable build, but that slight deficiency of reliability has cost points.

5 - Jurgen Klopp

The Guru of Gegenpressing did Aberdeen no favours by recalling Danny Ward from loan early. While Ward has now already made an impressive debut between the sticks at Anfield, what he left at Pittodrie was a reliance upon the old option of Scott Brown who is competent but prone to errors. McInnes only move to replace Ward was to loan Adam Collin from Rotherham but Collin (in spite of being a decent keeper) hasn’t stepped on to the park yet.

There is a clear difference between an EPL capable keeper and a keeper who spent his career prior to Aberdeen in the lower leagues of England and, unfortunately for the Dons, it’s the difference between first and second.

6 - Mixed Messages and Bottle Crashing

Derek McInnes, for much of the season, played his cards close to his chest. Aberdeen weren’t even contenders, much less favourites. Then he changed his tune, and then he changed it back again.

McInnes has consistently failed to play his hand correctly in the media and these pronouncements on Aberdeen’s chances have been verging on the ridiculous and more as if he doesn’t want fans to get excited knowing he could let them down. Aberdeen rarely publicly acted as if they were title contenders and it showed with lower than expected boosts to crowds across the season. Aberdeen gave out the message that they couldn’t win the title so much that fans and even players started to believe it and, in pressured situations, that meant lost points as the side already felt as if they were a goal down. When one compares it to the masterly orchestration of the media by Claudio Ranieri at Leicester who dismissed a title challenge with humour and maintained the player’s morale by publicly always believing in them without ever cranking up the pressure, then McInnes looks to have made a complete mess of it all.

7 - Derek McInnes

All these problems stem from the manager himself - failing to handle his defence correctly, failing to assemble a plan that didn’t involve going aerial, failing to have depth all over the park, failing to correct the obvious deficiencies in the squad and handling it all quite badly in the press.

McInnes has done admirably to turn Aberdeen into the second best side in Scotland but taking the side on further than that appears to require a deftness of media relations and an ability to identify talent that appears to be beyond McInnes’ abilities. When in January he could have made a signing to really prove Aberdeen were serious about taking on Celtic, he did nothing aside from get Don Cowie taken from under his nose by Hearts.

And, on this point, one is required to be blunt: this was Aberdeen’s year. Ignoring Rangers’ return for a moment, next year it is difficult to imagine Celtic being worse and even harder to imagine that Hearts’ rate of progression won’t take them past Aberdeen. It leaves Stewart Milne with a very awkward decision to make - if Derek McInnes isn’t able to realise that Aberdeen CAN win the title and act accordingly to secure that (and after two seasons of pushing Celtic, the evidence very much suggests that the title is beyond him as a manager but not Aberdeen as a club), then Aberdeen are signing on for next season to be third at best. Sacking a manager that has sorted out two successive second place finishes would seem very rash, but it’s the sort of decision you have to make to win titles.

Derek McInnes is forced with the old “Evolve or Die” scenario. If he can’t assume the mentality of a manager serious about winning titles, then it is best for Aberdeen to find one that does, particularly when the title isn’t far from their grasp. Where further can he take the club?

That’s a question the man and the club will have to consider in great depth over the summer.