Our Survivor: Edge of Extinction episode 6 edgic piece will rank the players’ chances of winning this game ahead of the crucial merge episode.

We have a daunting task ahead of ourselves. This week’s episode of Survivor: Edge of Extinction will bring about the merge episode; usually the make or break episode in any season’s edgic. We should know by now the few players who have a clear-cut chance at winning while eliminating those that have zero impact on the events present.

However, Edge of Extinction is a bit different. We could very well have a player who’s sitting on Extinction Island for who knows how long waiting for another shot to get back into the game. We don’t know if the player who returns at the merge needs contextual editing clues from their time on the island. We don’t even know how the jury format will work, or if this is the last shot at getting back into the game.

With all that in mind, we’ll take a look at who has the best shot of winning Survivor: Edge of Extinction after episode 6 with our edgic chart and discussing why:

Top winner contenders

Lauren O’Connell (MORP2, CPP4): In a season where every other winner candidate has a noticeable flaw, Lauren O’Connell has the cleanest game. We saw her removed from the more controversial Manu backstabs, we are reassured she’s not as weak as Wardog says, we have tons of personal content, and we know where her allegiances lie. She also has an advantage and is waiting to bloom at the merge.

Eric Hafemann (MOR3, CP4): Eric’s winner contender spot rose due to more negativity surrounding others. He’s putting plans in motion, explaining his reasoning and seeing others echo his sentiments in their own confessionals. His stated goal of getting out returning players has not come back to bite him. Most importantly, we are often reminded of him in the game when it’s unnecessary; a key factor for reminding the audience of a winner’s existence in the game.

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Kelley Wentworth (CP3, CP5): Early negativity surrounding her edit has since been erased by the Lesu tribe complexity and underdog story. Her power in maintaining control of the tribe had been taken (seemingly by force, per the edit) by Wardog, with Kelley looking to outside sources for support. Now with an idol, Lauren and now David in her corner, Kelley could be set to lead a come-from-behind alliance.

Victoria Baamonde (CP5, CP4): The only reason I don’t have Victoria second (or even first) is that she’s showing a lot of negativity lately. In confessionals, she’s shared she doesn’t care if she hurts people’s feelings and that she cannot be trusted. Otherwise, she has been the voice of the Kama insurrection early and is one of the most visible players throughout the pre-merge.

Rick Devens (MOR3, MOR2): If there’s ever going to be the first winner who was earlier voted out of the game, it would be Rick Devens. He’s basically the only rational mind of Edge of Extinction, figuring out all the puzzles and staying out of arguments. There was also the big moment where David and Rick are talking about making it to the end and Rick cutting David. That has to have a reason in the game. It has no purpose otherwise.

Outsiders Looking In

Aubry Bracco (CPM5, MOR3): The first hour of last week’s episode was a parade in overconfidence. Aubry didn’t trust her instincts and her power position and was blindsided for it. Should she return to the game, she would truly be on the bottom and have to work her way up again. That kind of storyline best fits Aubry, and would best allow her to earn her underdog status even as a returnee.

Julie Rosenberg (CP3, MOR3): This past week saw Julie in the center of a strategic conversation about Joe, but she was also the most survival-unready player in the “we suck without Joe” edit. That would likely tank any player’s winner’s chances, but the fact that we’re reminded of Julie’s continued play when she’s been the least impactful Kama player is huge to her relevance in the ongoing narratives.

David Wright (MOR3, CP5): It’s hard to ignore his repeated infatuation with getting out Kelley Wentworth, as it’s becoming clearer to him that he needs to work with her if he has a hope in staying in the game. However, David needs Rick to reenter the game for him to have a chance of staying safe for long unless he can wrangle an alliance with players he’s never met.

Ron Clark (MOR2, INV): Though Ron has shown intuition and Survivor social skills in forming bonds and gathering the tenets of an alliance, his one story so far has been about how he can (or cannot) get Joe out of the game. He did talk about how the advantage menu could be a key to helping him win a million dollars (we’ve had few winner quotes this season), but then we never heard of it again.

Slim Chances

Chris Underwood (MOR3, MOR2): Physically, Chris Underwood has the best chance of getting back into the game from the Edge of Extinction. However, where does his game go from there? He’s shown to make friends among the eliminated Manu, but also just got into a loud argument with Reem. His social game is muddled and not promising for an outcast player.

Joe Anglim (UTRP2, OTTP4): At this point, Joe knows, the players know, and the audience knows that Joe’s time is limited. He’s Joey Amazing, however, so the audience is going to be manipulated into caring for his wellbeing with the edit as long as he wins individual Immunity Challenges. It was interesting to see David ask about how nice it must be to be Joey Amazing while he cries about how hard it is to be perfect.

Gavin Whitson (UTR2, MOR2): While I initially liked Gavin more in the Gavin – Eric duo, it’s hard to ignore him being ignored in the edit. The Survivor superfan hasn’t had a chance to develop more than beyond one of Eric’s numbers, and he seems to be tertiary to strategic decisions and conversations.

Wardog (MOR2, OTTN4): Wardog’s been calling the shots for too long for the rest of the Manu / Lesu contingent to ignore, and I feel like his hubris is coming to bite him big time at the merge. He just absolutely screams merge boot, and if it’s not him, but someone like Victoria, David or Kelley who goes first, he’s not far behind. Wardog’s gonna find it hard to call the shots in the minority.

Edgically Out

Reem Daly (UTR2, OTTN3): Dude, bro, she’s yelling at people, (figuratively) handing out advantages to others and seems more focused on being angry than focused.

Julia Carter (MOR2, MOR2): Julia finally spoke! It didn’t help that she bought Joe’s empty platitudes and is unwilling to vote out the most obvious threat in the game.

Aurora McCreary (UTR1, UTR1): I don’t think there’s been a player who has been rated per Survivor edgic as under the radar for an entire pre-merge phase. Aurora might be a part of Survivor history, and not in a good way!

Keith Sowell (OTTN3, MOR2): Keith made a smart move to search for an advantage, but he did so to the disappoint and shock of all the other players on the Edge of Extinction. Even with a huge leg up on the competition, he still couldn’t find the advantage! He’s been a huge dud in this game on all facets.

Wendy Diaz (MOR3, OTT3): Wendy is the kind of player who wants to spare the chickens yet eat a hamburger as soon as she’s voted out of the game. Her logic within Survivor makes no sense, as she was cast for entertainment, not to win. Boy, is she an interesting character, though!