There’s this idea of bellwether stocks or leading indicators in finance. Essentially it means that if the leading indicator starts going down or up, the rest of the market will go down or up. It’s like being able to see the future because that indicator’s reaction signifies something about the future. If that’s the case, the NFL could be in trouble with television ratings this year. The Cowboys registered their lowest local ratings since 2009.

This is when we throw out the normal disclaimer. No matter how much ratings dip, the NFL is still by far the most watched programming on television. It’s like dropping from the heights of Mount Everest to the heights of Mount Kilimanjaro. It’s still pretty high.

Having said that, the Dallas market is an important market for one of the most watched teams in the country. There is a reason the Cowboys are valued at over $4 billion dollars. They absolutely own Dallas Fort-Worth. Nothing else really matters. The Rangers are fun, but the baseball team doesn’t garner as much attention as the Cowboys. Dallas, by all accounts, is a pretty good basketball city, but the Cowboys dominate the Mavericks when it comes to popularity. The NFL does not want to see one of it’s most important market losing fans. It’s not a good look. It’s cause for concern. Other local markets — and national markets — are going to get hit. Any national game with the Cowboys would normally draw larger numbers than other teams, and that might not be the case this year.

The funny thing is that this could be the thing to get Jason Garrett fired. It won’t be because he’s only made the playoffs in two of his nine seasons at head coach. It won’t be because Dak Prescott hasn’t grown as a player in two years. It won’t be because his scheme isn’t effective. It will be because people stopped watching the Cowboys. It will be because people didn’t want to watch because the game is boring. It will be because the Cowboys ratings dip. That’s a shot at Jerry Jones’ pockets. Lower ratings mean less money. Jones can’t have that. He needs to dominate the Dallas television market.

The Cowboys don’t look like they’ll be very good this year. They lack any weapons on the outside. Their offense looks to be lost. There will be a lot of handoffs to Ezekiel Elliott and not much else. That won’t bring viewers back to their television set.

The NFL could theoretically treat this as a function of the localized market, but that might not be the right way to look at things. If Dallas is a leading indicator of television ratings, then the NFL is in for a long year of ratings dips and questions about what is wrong with the NFL television product.