A woman runs for cover on Jan. 12 in Kinshasa after police fired warning shots to disperse a crowd at the end of a Catholic service in Congo’s capital commemorating the victims of a crackdown on last month's march calling for President Joseph Kabila to leave office.

﻿The Democratic Republic of Congo’s president has clung to power by playing a waiting game, but his refusal to step down has left sub-Saharan Africa’s largest country in a dangerous limbo.

﻿Joseph Kabila’s second—and constitutionally final—term ended in December 2016. That month, his ruling coalition promised he would cede power by the end of 2017. When that date approached, the electoral commission said elections would take place by the end of 2018—provided it could find the money.

Mr. Kabila, now in power for 17 years, has stepped up security in major cities amid a public outcry over his refusal to hold a vote.

A man prays at a Catholic service to commemorate the victims of the December crackdown on Jan. 12. Photo: john wessels/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The resultant political paralysis is deepening insecurity throughout the Central African country and across its nine national borders.

“Kabila will always find reasons for delaying the elections. He found them in 2016, in 2017 and he will also find them in 2018,” said Bienvenu Matumo of the Congolese activist group LUCHA, whose acronym stands for “Struggle for Change” in French. “He has no intention of giving up power.”


At stake is the stability of one of the world’s most resource-rich countries, which furnishes minerals vital to the batteries powering mobile phones, electric cars and other 21st-century industries, and the potential repeat of a conflict that left more than five million people dead in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when a war to oust longtime dictator Mobutu Sese Seko drew in neighboring Rwanda, Uganda and Angola.

Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila looks on during a meeting with South African President Jacob Zuma at the Sefako Makgatho Presidential Guest House in Pretoria on June 25, 2017. Photo: PHILL MAGAKOE/AFP/Getty Images

The protracted standoff now​has battered Congo’s currency and pushed annual inflation to 50%. United Nations agencies on Wednesday warned that more than 400,000 children under the age of 5 face the risk of starvation in the conflict-ridden central Kasai region.

​Meanwhile, the Catholic Church, which a year ago brokered the failed transition deal, has morphed into Mr. Kabila’s most effective critic.

Last Friday, police fired warning shots to disperse worshipers leaving Kinshasa’s main cathedral, where church leaders had urged congregants to defend Congo’s democracy.


The mass—attended by a number of Western ambassadors—had been called to honor the victims of New Year’s Eve protests, in which the U.N. said at least seven people died.

Prime Minister Bruno Tshibala, center, leaves after a Mass in Kinshasa on Jan. 16 during ceremonies marking the 17th anniversary of the assassination of former President Laurent Kabila, President Joseph Kabila’s father. Photo: JOHN WESSELS/AFP/Getty Images

On Dec. 31, police and soldiers fired tear gas at congregants commemorating the anniversary of the failed transition deal, which would have blocked Mr. Kabila from seeking a third term and allowed the opposition to pick the prime minister.

The government has said criminals infiltrated the protests.

Church organizations have called for another protest march Sunday to demand that the 46-year-old Mr. Kabila respect the constitution and cede power.


Just before the holidays, Ugandan jet fighters bombed rebels in eastern Congo whose attacks included the recent killing of 15 U.N. peacekeepers. That intervention—authorized by Mr. Kabila’s longtime foe, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni—raised concerns that Congo’s crisis could drag in neighboring countries.

“Most people here believe it’s the most likely scenario,” a Western diplomat in Kinshasa said.

From Rebel to Ruler Key moments in the life of Joseph Kabila Born June 4, 1971, in eastern Congo, where his father, Laurent Kabila, was fighting a guerrilla war against Mobutu Sese Seko

Attends school and university in neighboring Tanzania before becoming a commander in his father’s rebellion

Laurent Kabila becomes president of Congo in 1997 following Mobutu’s ouster

On Jan. 17, 2001, at the age of 29, Joseph Kabila takes over as president after his father’s assassination

Wins disputed elections in 2006 and 2011, giving him an official mandate until Dec. 20, 2016

A Dec. 31, 2016, transition deal fails to deliver elections in 2017

On Friday, 12 Congolese soldiers died in an operation against the same rebels in the volatile borderlands near the town of Beni, according to a Congolese diplomat.

In his New Year’s address, Mr. Kabila insisted Congo was enjoying “appreciable stability” and that the government was moving toward elections, set now for Dec. 23.


Bad luck and political missteps by the opposition have bolstered Mr. Kabila’s standing. His most formidable political opponent,Étienne Tshisekedi, died on Feb. 1 in Brussels at the age of 84, removing a veteran leader who could unite opposition parties.

Mr. Tshisekedi’s death created an opening for Mr. Kabila to name opposition politician Bruno Tshibala prime minister in April. That appointment allowed the president to claim he was heading a more inclusive government.

People gather in Brussels to pay homage to Congo’s late opposition leader, Étienne Tshisekedi, during a funeral wake in his honor on Feb. 5, 2017. Photo: EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP/Getty Images

Mr. Tshisekedi’s family has been unable to bring home and bury his body, which his party argues is a ploy by Mr. Kabila to prevent a popular gathering for his funeral. Congo’s information minister, Lambert Mende, says the family is free to bury Mr. Tshisekedi’s remains at an agreed-upon location.

Mr. Kabila’s most likely challenger, Moïse Katumbi, a wealthy former governor and owner of one of Africa’s most successful soccer teams, is in exile in Belgium after being sentenced in absentia to three years in prison for illegally selling a property. Mr. Katumbi ​is appealing his conviction, which he says was politically motivated.

The president hasn’t followed other regional leaders in removing term limits altogether or pushing through other legal changes to extend their rule.

“The only thing that did not fail is playing on time,” said Kris Berwouts, author of the 2017 book “Congo’s Violent Peace.” “That’s where we still are.”

Electoral commission head Corneille Nangaa has warned the vote timetable could slip further. “If [the] international community does not fund the election, I’m not sure the government funding will be enough to allow the election to take place,” he said in a recent interview.

Mourners in Kinshasa on Jan. 11 carry the coffin of a person killed in protests on Dec. 31, 2017. Photo: john wessels/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Opposition parties want Mr. Kabila to step down, with a transitional government overseeing the campaign.

Western governments, who have frozen assets and banned travel for several senior Congolese officials linked to human-rights abuses, haven’t been able to pressure Mr. Kabila. Diplomats argue that direct sanctions on the president would thwart any negotiated departure.

“No one really knows where to grip it or what to do,” said Ben Shepherd, a Central Africa expert at U.K. think tank Chatham House. “There is no easy answer.”

Write to Gabriele Steinhauser at gabriele.steinhauser@wsj.com and Nicholas Bariyo at nicholas.bariyo@wsj.com