EU LCS sucks: how predictability is killing the League and some changes that could bring it back to life

A spectre is haunting Europe — the spectre of boring and predictable League of Legends games. All the powers of old Europe have entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this spectre: Jankos and sOAZ, Ocelote and xPeke, a few Swedes and the usual Danes.

But it’s not working. The sad reality of EU LCS right now is that it is a dull and stagnant competition. Good teams beat bad teams, G2 bores their opposition to death and Origen loses to everyone, as if everyone was following the blandest of scripts. Upsets don’t happen, a tight series is rare and the standings have come to a standstill.

If we take a look at the data and compare Europe to its North American counterparts, it’s abundantly clear that the folks across the pond are having more fun. Out of 50 NA LCS series, 23 have gone to a deciding game three. That’s nearly half , whereas that fraction is closer to a third in Europe, where only 12 out of 32 series have gone the distance. It’s almost like our beloved best-of-twos never left us!

I will admit, however, that 2–0 series are often entertaining and can feel close without a deciding game. So what do I think is Europe’s biggest problem? Predictability.

Again, let’s use North America for a quick comparison. In 50 series, they’ve seen roughly 15 upsets (or series won by the lower-ranked team). Europe, on the other hand, does not get so many surprises. In fact, it took us five weeks to see Splyce beat Fnatic and give us our very first upset. The other 31 series were won by the team with the most wins, or simply either of them if they were tied.

This extreme consistency by European teams has polarized the league, with teams like Roccat and Origen still waiting to taste victory while G2 is yet to be defeated. There are no streaks or new possible narratives around them, and the only question viewers may ask themselves is: “Will this team continue to do the same thing they’ve done for several weeks?”. The answer so far has almost always been a yes.

Below is a timeline that shows how the EU LCS standings have *not* changed over time. Group B has seen some minimal changes, but after five weeks no team in group A has surpassed another and they’re all still in their week 1 positions. Tragic.

As if that was not enough, teams are also not really that close to one another in terms of skill. If we graph their series win ratio, the histogram shows a big chasm that separates the bottom four from the others. At this point, I’m somewhat convinced the only reason people watch Origen games is to see how long Naehyun’s record-breaking losing streak will last.

Even if European teams typically outperform North American ones in international tournaments, it is clear that The Old Continent is losing the entertainment battle. Nobody can change the fact that Europe includes several countries and languages, a trait that makes some things (like being attractive to juicy sponsors) harder. However, there might still be ways for competitive League of Legends to be more enticing here.

After seeing how cross-group play failed to breathe new life into EU LCS, I wouldn’t mind if this particular format was discontinued. Unless the end of the split is some crazy League of Legends rollercoaster, this will be the least exciting regular season I can remember. Perhaps going back to a groupless format would work, even if that means simultaneous streams. An increase in the number of games played could mean teams have more opportunities to experiment and produce unexpected results. It could also cause viewer fatigue, but who’s not tired of watching stompy and predictable series anyway?

If limited resources make some teams unable to sign competitive squads, a reduction from ten to eight teams also sounds like an option worth considering. With National Leagues growing larger and hiring/producing progressively better players, EU LCS could become a competition where only first-class teams and players are allowed to play. For those not good enough, Challenger Series and said National Leagues should provide more than enough choices and opportunities.

If no format changes occur, then I just hope teams will take it into their hands to give us (some) series that nobody will want to miss. North America’s anime-esque narratives can’t reign forever, and it’s time to stop being the Mr. Whiskers to their Brandy.

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