The Progressive Conservatives fear some disgruntled MPPs are set to cross the floor to join the Liberals, the Star has learned.

That’s a key reason why Premier Doug Ford is increasing the threshold for official party status in the legislature from eight MPPs to 12, a senior source says. A single defection would give the seven-member Liberal caucus official status.

“There are at least two we’re concerned about,” a senior Conservative insider said, speaking like others from the Liberals and PCs on condition of anonymity in order to discuss internal machinations.

“We’ve been watching this closely,” the PC source said, declining to reveal which MPPs are suspected of plotting to defect except to say that two are from the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area.

On Friday, sources close to Ford said there is also mounting concern that eastern Ontario PC MPP Amanda Simard might switch parties.

Simard (Glengarry-Prescott-Russell) made headlines this week by breaking with the government over the elimination of the French-language services watchdog and the cancellation of a new francophone university.

While the rookie MPP received permission from Ford’s office to publicly dissent on Facebook to help quell outrage among voters, she has not been seen at Queen’s Park since Wednesday. She is set to appear on the popular Quebec TV show Tout le monde en parle on Sunday.

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On Friday a second Tory close to Ford said “we have not heard back from her.”

The Star has guaranteed the confidential sources anonymity so they can speak freely without fear of retribution.

The source said Simard had the support of both caucus and cabinet for her Facebook post, adding “they went out of their way to help her out.” Simard has been the target of francophone fury with the government, which is why she has been allowed more leeway than other caucus members to break ranks over recent cuts. .

On Facebook, Simard — whose riding was in Liberal hands for almost four decades until her June win — said she “needs to assess where we are and what we can do and must do.”

She did not return calls, emails, or text messages from the Star.

Late Friday afternoon, the Ford government scrambled to do damage control, announcing that Attorney General Caroline Mulroney, who has been minister responsible for francophone affairs, will become a full minister of the department that is being re-named a “ministry” from an “office.” It’s unclear what practical difference this will make.

As well, Ford’s office pledged to hire a senior policy adviser on francophone affairs and Mulroney said “I am looking forward to the day where we are in a financial position to proceed with projects like the French language university.” The government did not set a timeline.

Simard, a lawyer and former municipal councillor who has worked on Parliament Hill as a policy adviser, is the parliamentary assistant to Mulroney in her secondary role at francophone affairs.

A senior Liberal source confirmed that there has been outreach to disaffected Conservatives.

“There are a few that we’ve been working on, but no confirmations,” said the Liberal.

Even before Simard expressed her “disappointment” with the government’s moves, there was growing dissatisfaction within the Tory caucus just five months after the party toppled former premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals.

“No less than seven members want to get out,” a third senior Conservative operative told the Star on Friday.

“We’ve never seen anything like this,” the source said, expressing hope that exhaustion is contributing to the schism more than disillusionment with Ford’s administration. MPPs have been working with little time off since the June election.

Last week, Finance Minister Vic Fedeli announced the bar for party status in the house would be raised.

“A ‘recognized party’ will include any party that obtains at least 10 per cent of the seats in the legislative assembly,” Fedeli said in his fall economic statement.

There are now 124 MPPs in the house after riding redistribution. In the last parliament, there were 107 and party status was eight. In the 1990s, when there were 130 members, the threshold was 12.

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With the Liberals one shy of qualifying for recognition in the house, the Tories felt they had to act to dissuade any potential defectors, one source said.

Party status would mean an increased budget for staff and research as well as more privileges in the house, including more daily questions and standing in legislative committees.

The Tory changes were also announced after Ford defenestrated Jim Wilson, the longest serving PC MPP and his most-experienced cabinet minister, over a scandal involving a staffer.

Wilson, who is now seeking treatment for alcohol in rehab, will sit as an Independent MPP when he returns to Queen’s Park.

A fiercely loyal Tory and former interim party leader, it’s seems unlikely he would join the Liberals.

“Jim would never do that,” said one associate.

Another Liberal insider said the party “has definitely not reached out to Jim Wilson.”

Ford’s office closely monitors Tory members. Sources say they track who applauds in the legislature and watch for MPPs who do not quickly leap to their feet for ovations after the premier or ministers respond to opposition inquiries during question period.

“They keep tabs on everything,” said a fourth Tory, conceding that such micromanaging is both heavy-handed and ham-fisted because MPPs are getting fed up.

Two party aides noted that speaking out in caucus meetings is also discouraged because they don’t want anyone to undermine team unity.

The Globe and Mail reported last week that MPP Paul Calandra (Markham-Stouffville) was dressed down by Ford’s chief of staff, Dean French, for questioning a decision during a recent caucus meeting.

Calandra, a former Tory MP who is not suspected of planning to defect, was scolded by French after complaining that MPPs were not being given advance notice on changes to government cannabis policy.

Witnesses have confirmed to the Star the staffer berated the MPP and warned him to be a “team player.”

Ford was taken aback by his aide’s outburst against an elected official, sources said.

Even a mass defection would not radically alter the party standings. In the 124-member house, there are 75 Tories, including Speaker Ted Arnott, 40 New Democrats, seven Liberals, Green Leader Mike Schreiner, and Wilson.

Floor crossings are rare at Queen’s Park. The last time it happened was in March 2007 when Mississauga South MPP Tim Peterson — brother of former premier David Peterson — quit the Liberal caucus and announced he would run for the Conservatives in the fall election. He lost the seat to Liberal Charles Sousa, who later became finance minister.

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Robert Benzie is the Star’s Queen’s Park bureau chief and a reporter covering Ontario politics. Follow him on Twitter: @robertbenzie

Correction - November 26, 2018: This article was edited from a previous version that misattributed a statement from Attorney General Caroline Mulroney to Premier Doug Ford. In fact, it was Mulroney who stated: "I am looking forward to the day where we are in a financial position to proceed with projects like the French heritage university."

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