The previous two elections ended in a draw between Mr. Netanyahu’s right-wing-religious coalition and the center-left bloc led by Benny Gantz, the centrist former army chief, with neither able to form a majority coalition. Recent polls before the Likud primary showed Mr. Netanyahu’s support softening after his indictment but not enough to change the unforgiving math that has paralyzed the Israeli government for the past year.

Moderate conservatives concerned about upholding the rule of law may find it difficult to vote for Mr. Netanyahu, Ms. Talshir said, noting that in more educated, well-heeled districts like north Tel Aviv, Mr. Saar made a strong showing.

The one likely outcome of Mr. Netanyahu’s new lease on political life is that the March 2 election will again be ugly and divisive, analysts said. It will pit the “Only Bibi” camp of supporters, who lovingly call Mr. Netanyahu by his nickname, attack the law enforcement authorities and try to delegitimize any opposition, against the other Israel that cannot accept the idea of a prime minister facing prosecution for serious crimes.

Mr. Gantz, the leader of the centrist Blue and White party, made it clear on Friday that he will once again run as the “not Bibi” candidate.

“It appears that the defendant Netanyahu, who is leading the state of Israel down a path of corruption, will continue to lead Likud,” Mr. Gantz said in response to the primary results. “These elections demand that we place a mirror in front of the ‘Netanyahu party’ and make the choice for unity, dignity and internal reconciliation,” he added.

But with the same protagonists running again on the same issues, and with recent polls showing a similar deadlock, there is little expectation of a fundamental shake-up by the March election.