Josep Borrell warns of Catalan ‘domino effect’

The veteran Spanish Socialist politician — himself a Catalan — says that the independence argument is based on a myth.

Josep Borrell at the Annual Economists Forum in Madrid in 2016 | Emilio Naranjo/EPA

Josep Borrell, a former president of the European Parliament who describes himself as “Catalan, Spanish and European,” believes that not enough people in Catalonia want independence to justify changing the constitution to allow a referendum, let alone break up Spain.

And anyway, he told POLITICO, the Catalonian independence movement is built on a myth.

“The story of a single people of Catalonia: It’s not true. It doesn’t exist,” Borrell said in an interview.

The 70-year-old former Socialist cabinet minister was one of a series of Spanish officials to visit Brussels ahead of October 1, when Catalan separatists are determined to go ahead with a referendum in defiance of a ban by the government in Madrid and the Constitutional Court.

“If it was 65 percent wanting independence, it would be a different story,” said Borrell, describing the planned vote as potentially “the biggest European constitutional crisis since the fall of the Berlin Wall. For the first time since then we are talking about changing borders. There could be a domino effect,” he said.

“The story is that Franco equals Spain and Spain equals Franco. That is what the students hear” — Josep Borrell

Borrell called on the Spanish government led by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to defuse the situation by doing more to solve the practical grievances of Catalans.

“The Spanish state has disappeared from my village in the Pyrenees,” said Borrell. Many tasks of government have shifted down to local and regional level, or been passed up to Brussels. All that bears Madrid’s seal today are “some roads which are in bad shape,” he said.

“If I have a problem with my wife, I send flowers,” Borrell said, suggesting Madrid should offer a fiscal equivalent to the Catalans in order to keep Spain united.

‘Imaginary problems’

Faced with a dogged publicity drive by the Catalan regional government in Brussels and elsewhere, Spanish officials have attempted to seize back the media narrative in recent weeks, convening a meeting with international journalists in Brussels this week to make their case.

Madrid’s main argument has been that the referendum would violate the Spanish constitution of 1978 and is therefore illegal, justifying its efforts to prevent the referendum from taking place, confiscate ballot boxes and campaign leaflets, and take action against mayors and other Catalan officials suspected of lending their support.

The government has ordered copy shops not to print referendum leaflets, which it describes as illegal, and has launched an investigation into more than 700 Catalan mayors suspected of providing logistical help for the vote. On Wednesday, the Civil Guard arrested 12 people in Barcelona linked to the independence campaign, including an aide to regional Vice President Oriol Junqueras. Madrid has also seized control of Catalonia’s autonomous finances to ensure tax revenue is not used to finance the referendum or pro-independence propaganda.

In response, Catalan regional President Carles Puigdemont accused Madrid of “crossing the red line that separates authoritarian and repressive regimes.”

Borrell believes the most urgent task for the Spanish government is to separate the grievances of the Catalans into two baskets: practical problems it can solve, and “imaginary problems” that it can fight with facts.

“You can improve trains if trains are the problem. But you cannot solve a problem that does not exist. For that you need to engage daily to create a shift [of opinion],” Borrell said.

He acknowledged that “half of Catalonia has become psychologically independent,” but said the region is hugely divided. The countryside is home to much stronger nationalist feelings than Barcelona, while “75 percent of the people whose mother tongue is Catalan support Yes (to independence) and 75 percent of the people with other languages as their mother tongue are against independence.”

Brexit tactics

Borrell divided independence supporters into two categories: those whose Catalan nationalism is ingrained (around a quarter of the population), and those whose support for independence is conditional — tied to personal and economic circumstances.

He accused Catalan nationalists of stealing the Brexit campaign’s playbook. “It’s the same discourse of stolen money,” he said.

In the 2016 U.K. referendum on EU membership, Leave campaigners suggested the EU effectively stole money from British institutions like the National Health Service. In Catalonia, the argument is that Catalonia pays more than its fair share into the national treasury and should take back direct control.

Borrell worries that “temporary” violence could flare around October 1.

In the Catalan debate, said Borrell, “the ability to argue between facts has been lost. It’s no longer rational. The story is that Franco equals Spain and Spain equals Franco. That is what the students hear.”

Perhaps Madrid’s strongest argument about the Catalan government’s plans is that the debate lacks an official No campaign. A real referendum would have two sides, according to Borrell.

With tension building ahead of the vote, Borrell worries that “temporary” violence could flare around October 1 and predicted that the role of Catalonia’s autonomous police force, the Mossos d’Esquadra, will be crucial.

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