Just as most expected from the beginning of the season, Alabama and Clemson are the two teams playing for the National Championship. As this game is the only one occurring for the rest of the season, I thought it was necessary to break down just about every facet of the game I could think of to determine my prediction.

Before I break the game down by discussing who has the advantage in each aspect, it is important to see how each team got to where they are now.

Alabama is 14-0 this season, and has widely been considered to be the best team in the country all year. Alabama was dominant through most of their schedule as they did not win a game by less than 22 points for the entire regular season. The Crimson Tide has a scar against Georgia in the SEC Championship as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was battling an ankle injury throughout the game, but they eventually rallied to a 35-28 win. In the playoff semifinals, Alabama played Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl. Alabama jumped out to a 28-0 lead in the first half before allowing Oklahoma back into the game. Alabama won 45-34. Alabama might be without starting offensive guard Deonte Brown due to suspension, but do not have any significant players absent outside of that.

Like Alabama, Clemson is 14-0 this season, but has had to face a couple of hurdles. They struggled a bit at Texas A&M in the second game of the season before pulling out a 28-26 win. Against Syracuse three weeks later, they fell behind after quarterback Trevor Lawrence left the game with injury, but came back to win 27-23. After that, Clemson did not run into very much trouble. The Tigers steamrolled Pittsburgh 42-10 in the ACC Championship game. In the Playoff Semifinal game against Notre Dame, Clemson took a quarter to get going but eventually beat down Notre Dame 30-3. Clemson will be without defensive tackle and likely first round pick Dexter Lawrence in this game, as they were against Notre Dame.

Finding the Advantages

Quarterback

Alabama’s offense has been the dominant part of their team this season and I believe Tua Tagovailoa has been the main catalyst for that. Tua has thrown for 3,671 yards this season and is second in the country with 11.4 yards per pass attempt. Tua has an astounding touchdown to interception ration of 41/4. While he does not typically look to run with the ball, Tua does have five rushing touchdowns on the season as well. Despite a poor showing against Georgia, Tua rebounded against Oklahoma, completing 24/27 passes for 318 yards, and four touchdowns. Clemson’s defense will have their hands full stopping him.

Clemson finally made the decision to go with Trevor Lawrence over Kelly Bryant at quarterback after the fourth game of the season. Lawrence has immediately taken hold of the starting position and not looked back. Lawrence has completed 65% of his passes and has thrown for 2,933 yards this season. Lawrence has definitely had some typical freshman mistakes, but has definitely improved as the season has gone on. Against Notre Dame, Lawrence shined, completing 27/39 passes for 327 yards and three touchdowns. I think questioning if Lawrence can handle this moment while being a true freshman is an insult to his performance in big games. I think that Alabama will definitely have to game plan for Lawrence and his strong arm, but he is still not the focal point of Clemson’s offense.

Advantage: Alabama

Running Back

Alabama relies on a group of three running backs. Damien Harris, Najee Harris, and Josh Jacobs all split carries fairly evenly. Damien Harris leads the three in rushing yards with 819. Najee Harris leads the three in yards per attempt with 6.7. Jacobs leads the three in touchdowns with 11, and receiving yards with 231. Alabama’s running backs can attribute part of their success to a strong offensive line, but they also have a significant amount of talent in their backfield. Damien Harris is usually who they rely upon to get tough yardage, but Najee Harris and Jacobs still have the strength to pull it off. Jacobs is probably the biggest game breaker of the group, capable of making a big play whenever he touches the ball. Just because they do not have a standout like they had previously with Heisman winners Derrick Henry (it should have been Christian McCaffrey) or Mark Ingram does not mean this is a deadly backfield. I expect Damien Harris will get called upon the most in this game, as I think he can be relied upon the most to fight for yards.

Unlike Alabama, Clemson has one player in the backfield doing the brunt of the work. ACC Player of the Year Travis Etienne has run for 1,573 yards this season as well as 22 touchdowns averaging 8.3 yards per carry. Etienne has been a workhorse back in Clemson’s offense, and has a nose for the end zone, as he leads the country in rushing touchdowns. Etienne is very talented, but there are some other running backs that have gotten their fair share of carries. Tavien Feaster, Adam Choice, and Lyn-J Dixon all have at least 60 carries. Dixon, a true freshman has the most rushing yards of the group with 547 and averages 8.8 yards per carry. Dixon is definitely a threat in the backfield and good change of pace back. Choice and Feaster are veteran backups that can typically do what is asked if them. Etienne is the main offensive weapon Clemson uses, and Alabama will have to do a bit of game planning to stop him.

Advantage: Clemson

Receivers

Alabama’s young receiving corps have stepped up big time this season. Biletnikoff Award winner Jerry Jeudy leads the group with 1,176 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns this season. Jeudy has not been featured in the passing game less these last couple games, but that is mostly due to the dominant play of other players on the offense. Devonta Smith, who hauled in the game winning touchdown in the National Championship game last season was the leading receiver against Oklahoma, and is still a consistent threat. True freshman Jaylen Waddle is an impressive athlete and playmaker in both the passing game, and the return game. An underrated part of this group of pass catchers is tight end and H-back Irv Smith Jr. Smith is the fourth leading receiver for the Crimson Tide with 667 yards, and has seven touchdowns this season. Smith also can make an impact as a blocker in both the run and pass game. There is talent all over this group, and they will look to exploit the weakness Clemson has in their pass defense.

Clemson’s passing game has been used more and more these last few games, and their receivers have started to shine. Justyn Ross was the star of the show against Notre Dame with 148 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Tee Higgins is still the main receiver for the Tigers with 855 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns on 56 catches. Higgins and Ross are both big receiver, standing at 6’4” and are very good at coming up with tough catches as evidenced by their touchdowns in the Notre Dame game. Amari Rodgers is also a threat as the team’s third receiver with 540 receiving yards on 52 catches. Alabama definitely has not forgotten about Hunter Renfrow, who came up with the game winning catch the last time these two teams squared off in the National Championship. Renfrow is not particularly big or athletic, but he is very sound and skilled has 534 receiving yards this season. Alabama will need to come up on the good side of some 50/50 balls in this game or else their defensive backs could get torched.

Advantage: Alabama

Offensive Line

As per usual, Alabama’s offensive line does not lack talent. Their best offensive lineman is left tackle and likely first round draft pick Jonah Williams. Williams has quick hands, and is very reliable in pass protection. Williams, along with right tackle Alex Leatherwood, was an All-SEC selection. Ross Pierschbacher is also a veteran leader at center who is very sound and reliable. The task of blocking Clemson’s standout defensive end Clelin Ferrell will likely fall on Leatherwood, and it will be an important one. Clemson has a star studded defensive line, but Alabama’s offensive line is capable of containing it.

Clemson’s offensive line is often overshadowed by their defensive line, but there still are some talented players on it. The unit is headlined by All-ACC left tackle and four year starter Mitch Hyatt. This will be the fourth time Hyatt has played Alabama. The task of blocking Alabama’s star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams will likely fall in center Justin Falcinelli. Falcinelli was a second team All-ACC selection, but Williams will likely be a top five pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. Guards John Simpson and Sean Pollard will need to provide support in that task. Clemson has a talented offensive line, but Quinnen Williams will need to be neutralized.

Advantage: Alabama

Defensive Line

While Clemson’s defensive line unit is incredible, Alabama likely has the best defensive lineman in this game in Quinnen Williams. Williams has 67 total tackles this season, including 18 tackles for loss and eight sacks. Due to his ability to slip through the line and make plays, Williams has been referred to as a 300 pound bar of soap. I find that description accurate as he can slip and squeeze through opposing offensive lines. Defensive end Isaiah Buggs leads the team with 9.5 sacks. Buggs often takes advantage of the attention given to Williams and makes opposing teams pay. While Clemson’s defensive line may be the one that is more talked about, Alabama’s is no slouch either.

The defensive line has been the strength of Clemson’s team for this entire season. While Dexter Lawrence not playing due to suspension definitely hurts the unit, they still are an elite group. Albert Huggins, Lawrence’s replacement already played between 20 and 25 snaps per game at defensive tackle, so his workload is not much higher. Defensive end Clelin Ferrell leads the team with 18.5 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks. Ferrell is a constant disruptor for opposing teams as a pass rusher. Fellow defensive end Austin Bryant totaled up 14 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks this season. Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins plugs up the middle, and is a tough task to block. This defensive line unit is the main advantage Clemson has, and they will need to be as disruptive as possible against Alabama’s dynamic offense.

Advantage: Clemson, but it is closer than you would think.

Linebackers

Alabama’s group of linebackers are probably the weak link of their defense, but they are still solid compared to the average group. Dylan Moses is finally getting a chance to shine after being a very highly touted recruit and he is making the most of it. Moses leads the Crimson Tide with 82 total tackles. Moses has added another 10 tackles for loss, and is a very good all around athlete. Mack Wilson is the starter at middle linebacker and is also an impressive player (even though he got pancaked by CeeDee Lamb in the Orange Bowl). Wilson has 65 total tackles and two interceptions this season. Anfernee Jennings plays linebacker and occasionally on the defensive line, and has 9.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks this season. Jennings is also tied for first on the team with 10 pass deflections. Alabama’s linebackers are solid, but cannot get outmuscled by Clemson.

In Clemson’s 4-3 defense, Isaiah Simmons, Kendall Joseph, and Tre Lamar are the starters at linebacker. Simmons, a former safety, leads this group and the team with 79 total tackles, while Joseph and Lamar trail closely with 76 and 73 respectively. Simmons also leads the group with eight tackles for loss and six pass deflections. While Simmons may seem like the standout, Lamar was second team All-ACC, the best showing of anyone on this unit. Joseph leads this group with 3.5 sacks. Overall this unit plays well together, and and is strong with nobody really separating themselves as the main guy.

Advantage: Alabama

Secondary

Alabama’s secondary might be young, but there is definitely some star potential. Saivion Smith and Patrick Surtain, the two starting cornerbacks, are both in their first year with the program. Smith is a junior college transfer and Surtain is a true freshman. Smith leads the team with three interceptions, and has 58 total tackles to go along with it. Surtain has just one interception, but is still a tough corner to shake. Surtain and Smith are 6’2” and 6’1” respectively so they are shorter than Clemson’s big receivers but not significantly. The star of the secondary is free safety Deionte Thompson, who will probably be playing on Sundays next year. Thompson is second on the team with 75 tackles, and has two interceptions and three forced fumbles. This secondary is young, but can not be underestimated.

Clemson’s secondary has often been said to be the weakness of their team, and while I believe that to be true, there is a path to success in this game. Trayvon Mullen is a second team All-ACC cornerback that is good in coverage, but the fact that he has no interceptions this season is concerning. AJ Terrell has looked good in spots at corner, and has two interceptions. Safety Tanner Muse has the most tackles of anyone in the secondary with 58 as well as two interceptions. This unit is not the best, but if they can just prevent Tua Tagovailoa from completely shredding them, that could be enough.

Advantage: Alabama, but this is far from the strong point of either team.

Other Points to Note

It should also be noted that while Nick Saban is a better coach, I think the margin between him and Dabo Swinney is too close to be significant.

I would give Clemson the nod in terms of special terms of special teams.

Prediction:

Alabama brings home another Championship as they win 30-24. I think Alabama’s passing game is a bit too much for Clemson, and their front seven does enough to stop Clemson’s run game.

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