Brewers mulling high cost of trading for 'controllable' pitcher vs. cost of a 'rental'

Tom Haudricourt | Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

The Milwaukee Brewers have definite interest in adding a starting pitcher to their fold before the deadline for non-waiver trades arrives at 3 p.m. (CDT) Tuesday.

But, as other clubs in search of that same commodity have learned, that’s easier said than done on this trade market.

Here’s the two-fold dilemma the Brewers and others are confronted with:

1. The “rental” pitchers – those who will be free agents after the season – such as Cincinnati’s Matt Harvey, just aren’t that exciting. There’s no guarantee they would be difference makers, so how much should you have to pay?

2. The “controllable” pitchers – those who are under contractual control beyond 2018 – come at a high price in terms of minor-league prospects, as they should. The Brewers don’t want to trade their top two or three prospects, making a deal more difficult to do.

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The Brewers have checked in on three of the more prominently mentioned controllable starter’s on the market – Tampa Bay’s Chris Archer, the New York Mets’ Zach Wheeler and Baltimore’s Kevin Gausman. Including two club options, Archer has three more years of control at the reasonable total price of $27.5 million. Gausman has a $5.6 million salary with two years of arbitration remaining, and Wheeler is making only $1.9 million but has just one year left in arbitration.

Wheeler and Gausman each would upgrade the Brewers’ rotation, without question, but the Mets have made it clear they want top dollar (in terms of prospects) in return, and the Orioles understandably are asking a lot for their pitcher as well. The Brewers thought they had Wheeler in a trade in July 2015, but it fell through at the last minute and instead Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers were traded to Houston for four prospects.

Because the Brewers were engaged in trade discussions for shortstop Manny Machado before he was traded to the Dodgers, the Orioles are familiar with their farm system. Whether that makes a possible deal easier or more difficult is hard to say.

Another controllable pitcher of interest is Minnesota's Kyle Gibson, though the Twins don't appear motivated to move him. Gibson makes $4.2 million this year and has one more year of arbitration before hitting free agency.

The Brewers already have traded one of their top-10 prospects, outfielder Brett Phillips, in the deal for Kansas City third baseman Mike Moustakas, and one of their top 20 in left-hander Kodi Medeiros in the trade for Chicago White Sox reliever Joakim Soria. Brewers general manager David Stearns would have to cut a much wider swath through the top of his prospect list to acquire a controllable starting pitcher.

There has been considerable interest in the Brewers' three top prospects -- second baseman Keston Hiura, and right-handers Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta, both of whom are currently on the big-league roster. Understandably, Stearns is reluctant to deal any of those three, especially for a pitcher he'd have for only one more season.

These are the factors the Brewers are mulling in the final day and a half before the trade deadline. They expect to get right-hander Zach Davies back from the disabled list in the next couple of weeks, which considering how little he has pitched this year would be akin to trading for a starter. The Brewers also have confidence in Brandon Woodruff, now pitching for Class AAA Colorado Springs.

The Brewers also are looking at improving their catching situation, with Manny Pina falling off considerably at the plate. That commodity is usually even more difficult to find than starting pitching, however.

Little wonder that when I reached out to Stearns Monday morning to see if it looked as if he’d be able to pull off another trade, he said, “Tough to tell at this point.”

In other words, it could go either way. Stay tuned.