Hello once again fellow Pillagers and welcome to TRF’s Week 13 Edition of the NFL Playoff Pontificator. For this go around we will look at the 4 records that could (mathematically) get us in the playoffs ranging from a sweet 10-6 to a somewhat embarrassing 7-9 (2010 Seattle Seahawks anyone?). Join me as we break down the various (more likely and less likely) pathways to an Oakland Raider playoff berth in 2017.

10-6

At 10-6, the Raiders would beat everyone left on the schedule (vs. NYG;

@KC; vs. Dallas; @Phil; @SD). Obviously, the odds that Oakland wins the Division in this case (and hosts a playoff game) would be 100%. The only question remaining here would be if they go in as the 3 Seed or the 4 Seed. The number-crunching Pontificator says the team would have a 68% chance of being Seed 4 and a 31% chance of being Seed 3 under this 10-6 scenario. And yes, there is a non 0% chance for a bye (1%) but lets not get too crazy with the cheese whiz on that one. Again though, as much as we would all love to see a 10-6 final record, it is a bit hard to imagine given the inconsistency we have witnessed this year and the outright dominance of the Philadelphia Eagles. Still, never say never, especially in today’s NFL.

7-9

Under this “crazy scenario” we win two more games and still make the playoffs. Before we talk about this pipe dream lets get one thing perfectly clear. If the Raiders lose either of the remaining AFC matchups (@KC @LA), they are done.

Even if they win BOTH remaining division games and lose the rest there is still only a 6-7% chance to make it at 7-9. And yes, you probably guessed it, that berth would be in the form of an AFC West Championship.

Ironically, if this somehow came to fruition the Raiders would attain something at 7-9 that they could not do at 12-4 in 2016. However, with a 6-7% likelihood of occurring I would not suggest that we hold our collective breath on this outcome. As the numbers dictate, a 7-9 record equates to a 93-94% chance that the team instead will be staying home in January. And by home I mean couch-potatoing, not suited up and not ready to go at O.co.

8-8

This is where it gets a little more interesting, if for no other reason than we are getting closer to a more realistic final record. Going 8-8 means that the team wins 3 more games. Let’s look at this from a worst to best case scenario standpoint. If the Raiders lose both AFC West matchups the team is essentially dead with a 2% chance of making the dance (as a WC 6 entrant only). If the team wins 1 of the remaining AFC games, the odds jump up a bit to 8-18%, with an equal shot at the number 6

Seed and the AFC Divisional crown (Seed 4). However, as you can see, any 8-8 scenarios where we don’t beat KC and LA, the odds of playing in the post season are quite slim.

That said, there is an 8-8 playoff pathway where things get very interesting…

If the Raiders can manage to beat both KC and LA and finish at 8-8, then the odds shoot up to ~53%. (The exact teams the Raiders beat/lose to in the NFC would essentially be meaningless.) It should also be note that most of that 53% would come in the form of an AFC West Championship berth (45%). Attaining the Seed 6 WC slot would comprise the remaining 8%. At first glance this seems pretty remarkable but not unbelievable given the fact that an 8-8 Raider team in this case would hold –any and all- tiebreakers over KC and LA (and yes, Denver too).

9-7

This record represents the sweet spot most of us hope the team can pull off. 9-7 would require going 4-1 down the stretch, which is better than any winning percentage the Raiders have had so far this season. Still, at least on paper, it looks possible.

The toughest game looks to be the @Philly match up which would entail going up against a team on the road in late December that has already has racked up 10 victories. Of course some are hopeful that the Eagles will have already sewn up home field advantage by the time we play them on Christmas day.

If the Raiders were able to win 4 of their remaining 5 that included a sweep of the Chiefs and Chargers, it would translate into a 93% chance that the team would make the post season. It is worth noting that this percentage stays the same so long as that 1 loss is from an NFC team. The 93% breaks down to an 85% chance of winning the AFC West with the remaining likelihood coming in the form of a WC berth (8%).

There is no doubt that all of this sounds great to any Raider fan. However, what about “other ways” the team could get to 9-7? How do the odds look then? Well, in three words, “not as rosy”. If the Raiders beat the Chiefs but lose to the Chargers the odds slip to ~66% with 45% of that 66% coming in the form of an AFC West title. Reverse that scenario (lose to the Chiefs but beats the Chargers,), and the overall odds drop to ~52%, with a 16% chance of winning the Division.

The take home message for all of these playoff scenarios, regardless of the final record, is that the Raiders REALLY need to take care of business within the AFC West. If the team wins both of those divisional matchups we are likely in the mix down to the very last whistle. Lose one or both of those games and things get real tough real quick…

And now for your amusement, I leave you with this week’s TuckRoo’Foo’ishFact©

When it comes to securing a wildcard slot it often comes down to tiebreakers. And this year, the teams the Raiders have to ‘worry’ about are Buffalo and Baltimore, largely due to earlier losses this season.

However, and what is an oft-forgotten loophole associated with the NFL tiebreaker procedure, when THREE WC hopeful teams are knotted up from different divisions, the head-to-head tiebreaker ONLY comes into play if ALL THREE teams have played each other (which in this particular case will not occur in 2017). So…if need be…look for the possibility of rooting for a 3-way tie between us, Buffalo and Baltimore as we get into December. Conference record would be the next applicable tiebreaker in the queue.

Written by: TuckRoo’ Foo