Bush not at risk of arrest in Europe, experts say

By Jeff Stein

European law enforcement officials and other experts say the chances of George W. Bush being arrested on war crimes charges in Switzerland--or anyplace else on the continent--are almost nil.

Headlines and assertions by human rights groups that the former president risked a “possible arrest warrant” if he traveled to Geneva to give a speech this weekend were overblown, those with direct experience in such matters said.

But Amnesty International insisted that “Anywhere in the world that he travels, President Bush could face investigation and potential prosecution for his responsibility for torture and other crimes in international law, particularly in any of the 147 countries that are party to the U.N. convention against torture."

"From a legal point of view, I believe it could be possible,” said Dick Marty, a Swiss prosecutor who led Council of Europe’s investigation into alleged illegal CIA secret prisons. “But I'm convinced that the political reality is that there are no chances for such a step."

Likewise, Armando Spataro, the Milan prosecutor who won kidnapping convictions against CIA agents involved in the 2003 rendition of an al Qaeda suspect, said an indictment of Bush was possible only “in theory.”

“According to our system, one (or more) of the following circumstances must be present to issue an arrest warrant,” Spataro said. “One, danger that a person could repeat the same serious crime; two, a danger he could became a fugitive; and three, a danger he could destroy or tamper with evidence.”

Because Bush is out of office and constitutionally prohibited from occupying the presidency again, the conditions for prosecuting him--in Italy, at least--are absent, Spataro suggested.

The most famous case of a head of state arrested on human rights charges came in March 2000, when former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet was detained in London. He returned to Chile under indictment but died before a trial.

“What we have in Switzerland is a Pinochet opportunity,” Gavin Sullivan, a lawyer for one of the groups advocating for Bush’s arrest, was quoted as saying last weekend.

But John Dinges, author of "The Condor Years: How Pinochet and his Allies Brought Terrorism to Three Continents," pointed out that Bush had to be indicted somewhere before he could be arrested--which leaves him little cause for worry.

"Bush is in good company. There are more than 300 South American military officers who have Interpol extradition warrants,” said Dinges, who is also the Godfrey Lowell Cabot Professor of Journalism at Columbia University.

“The difference is that Bush has not been indicted anywhere--unlike most of the officers wanted in the human rights cases. Until that happens, I don't think this will change Bush's ability to travel.”