1. xFPL Review

xFPL explained : Expected goals (xG), assists (xA), involvements (xI = xG + xA) and clean sheets (xC) that were expected based on the underlying statistics (e.g. shot type and location). xFPL is the combination of these statistics amd factors in appearance and bonus points to give an overall expected Fantasy Premier League (FPL) point score.

Our xFPL table for the week backs up the scores posted by the Liverpool duo Mané and Salah – who both registered 15 points each, and for once over-performed their underlying stats, with only two shots on target for the pair. Salah also attempted three assists, which is an improvement from the last few weeks in terms of creativity. Milivojevic is top as a result of the high xG of the two penalties, and Balbuena’s attacking and defensive numbers continue to show promise ahead of West Ham’s great run of fixtures. Pogba leads the way for shots on target (SoT) this gameweek with five, but Martial’s stats are even more impressive overall, with four attempted assists and three shots in the box (SiB), all of which found the target, and would have had an even bigger haul had Pogba converted his penalty at the first attempt. Wilson and Morata lead the way for ‘big chances’ this week, with three each, and both strikers fired in five SiB while the Cherries man found the target on three occasions.







2. Is Barkley Sarri’s Hamsik?

With three goals and three assists, Barkley has registered more FPL involvements in the last three matches than any other player, and his 17 point haul this gameweek was no fluke. The former Evertonian attempted four assists and fired three shots on goal in Chelsea’s 0-4 win, and was a constant menace to the Burnley defence throughout. Despite an undefeated start, Chelsea are in need of a goalscorer from midfield in the vein of Hamsik during Sarri’s reign at Napoli. Given that Kovacic, Kante and Jorginho offer very little in terms of midfield goal contribution, a hallmark of the manager’s philosophy, is Barkley the answer? Hamsik scored 12 goals and assisted 11 in Sarri’s first year at Napoli, and out of Chelsea’s current crop of midfielders, no one suits that role better than Barkley. He is currently Chelsea’s second highest Premier League scorer with three goals, tied with Morata, and just four behind Hazard. Sarri’s post match comments are also optimistic.

“He’s doing very well in this period. He’s improved in the defensive phase and he has improved his physical condition because the last season for him was very difficult with a very serious injury. He stopped the activity for six months. Now he’s improving the physical condition. He’s a very good player from a technical point of view. He’s improved the defensive phase. Now I think Ross is complete.”

Chelsea now embark on a favourable run of fixtures, with Crystal Palace, Everton and Fulham coming in their next four fixtures, all of which are at Stamford Bridge. As the heatmap comparison shows, Barkley could be a great option for Fraser owners that are looking for an exit route ahead of a fixture run that sees Bournemouth play Man. United, Arsenal, Man. City, Liverpool and Wolves across their next seven.





3. Doherty continuing to post great numbers

Six shots (four SiB, two SoT) and two attempted assists. These are the numbers you would expect from a striker, not a defender playing for a promoted side. Despite not registering any FPL involvements, Doherty was Wolves’ primary attacking outlet. Over the last four gameweeks no defender has taken more shots than the Irishman’s nine, and he also leads the way for penalty box touches with 14. Although Wolves now embark on a testing run of fixtures, with Tottenham, Arsenal and Chelsea across their next five, however, their defensive numbers indicate that clean sheets are not out of the question. Over the last four weeks, Wolves have allowed opponents only 22 SiB, the fourth lowest in the league, tied with Liverpool. At a bargain price of 4.9, Doherty offers possibilities of returns at both ends of the pitch, and is also a great bench back-up for those managers rolling with an Alonso/Mendy/Robertson backline since rotation will be an ongoing theme at the big clubs this season.





