It is a laudable objective to want to reduce pollution when four of the top 10 most polluting cities are in India. On the back of the success achieved in ensuring better electricity generation coupled with the need to have paying customers for this electricity, the government has readied a plan to install charging infrastructure for electric cars. If this plan works, it will over time reduce the need for diesel and petrol in the transport sector. It logically follows that the import bill for crude oil will also come down, which will free up financial resources for the government.However, if the government is really keen on reducing pollution, they must make a beginning by ordering the scrapping of pre-BS (Bharat Stage) and BS 1, 2 and 3 vehicles. They are finding it difficult to do this. For those who have paid a lifetime tax on their vehicles, to have their vehicles suddenly scrapped will be difficult to swallow. Is it practical for the government to come up with a scheme where they replace these old vehicles that run on polluting fuel with electric vehicles (EVs)? Will there be a phased programme for the replacement of such vehicles and will the government bear a part of the cost of such scrapping and replacement? By levying punitive taxes, including a cess on modern cars that are the least polluting, the government is defeating a key national objective of reducing pollution. The removal of old vehicles will also reduce oil consumption. EVs, by the government’s own estimates, will be all pervasive only by 2030. In the interim, assuming that the vehicle scrap page policy sees the light of day, the transportation scene will be dominated by BS 4 and BS 6 vehicles. The point being made here is that while the industry is in sync with the objective of the government in reducing pollution and actively supports it, there are several on-the-ground realities that need to be reckoned with.The auto sector along with the auto components industry, in anticipation of the introduction of BS 6 fuel, have made investments accordingly and will progressively make more investments as demand patterns take definite shape. It would take time for the sector to recover their investments. Given that the Indian banking sector supports several of these investments, it would be prudent in the interest of minimising stressed assets that vehicles sporting internal combustion (IC) engines are also supported. This is where strong hybrids play a key role in that they function as an EV and use IC engines as well. Energy Efficiency Services Limited (EESL), a joint venture of PSUs of the Ministry of Power , has been quick off the block in tendering for 1,000 electric sedans and the overall intention is to facilitate the creation of an ecosystem to make Indian EV ventures globally competitive. This action of the ministry deserves applause: the faster such initiatives roll out, the earlier the country can move to becoming electric.While such sedans should be capable of running at a minimum top speed of 80 km per hour and have a minimum range of 130 km per hour, the compliance requirement will have to be in line with existing Central Motor Vehicle Rules. Industry will be keenly awaiting the outcome of this tender. Considering the substantial tax incentive for EVs — 12% GST and no cess — versus 43% for luxury vehicles and hybrid vehicles, it is anticipated that there will be enough players bidding for this tender. This could be a litmus test of the enthusiasm for EV manufacture.In the EESL tender, the term EV refers to vehicles that run solely on battery energy stored in the vehicle and do not have an IC engine. This is what the document states. This is where the policy initiative appears to be at odds with the principle of not putting all your eggs in one basket. In the government’s eagerness to curb pollution and reduce its import bill, killing the IC engine through such clauses is not a desirable policy objective. Hybrid vehicles by definition use battery technology extensively and will only contribute to lowering the cost of batteries and to the ecosystem of pure EVs. As we move toward 2030, investments in the industries that support the IC engine industry will begin to slacken even as the national objective of moving towards EVs gains momentum. A natural fallout will be that industries such as casting, forging and machining will be impacted and some may even have to close down at that point as they would become unviable. Some of them may survive as they reinvent themselves to cater to industries other than automobiles. However, the Make in India story, on the basis of which investments have been made in gearbox and engine plants, will begin to suffer. Further, having already built competencies in supplying to IC engines sector globally, our export thrust in this area would be blunted.Most importantly, the impact on employment could be brutal. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that about 1.5 million jobs could be at stake if the IC engine industry, dependent on the four-wheeler auto sector, were to flounder. This is a serious social cost that policymakers will do well to evaluate. There is no doubt that the electric car industry will generate jobs for the sector as well but from all views expressed so far, given the relative simplicity of EV technology, the replacement of jobs will not be the same.While the government’s objectives of reducing pollution and imports deserve applause and support, the policy enunciation appears fraught with risk. The vision cannot be 100% electric but can only be an outcome of consumer behaviour and market forces. The vision has to be better calibrated toward an approximate equal share for EVs, for the IC engine vehicles and for newer technology vehicles such as hydrogen.(The writer is vice-chairman & whole-time director, Toyota Kirloskar Motor)