A new internal poll from Randy Bryce, the ironworker who blasted onto the national political scene in June with a viral video, claims he trails by just 6 points in Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, 46 to 40. | Joshua Blanchard/Getty Images for Politicon Democrat commissions poll pointing to tough reelection for Ryan

Paul Ryan might be facing a tough reelection race back home next year — provided anyone finds out who his biggest Democratic challenger is.

A new internal poll from Randy Bryce, the ironworker who blasted onto the national political scene in June with a viral video, claims he trails by just 6 points in Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, 46 percent to 40 percent.


But the same poll from the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group shows that 79 percent of likely voters surveyed in late November don’t even know enough about Bryce to say they view him favorably or unfavorably. Ryan has represented thedistrict since 1999, winning reelection handily each time he's been on the ballot.

Voters — particularly independents — do say they know enough about the tax plan Ryan is championing to be largely against it. And the polls and focus groups conducted on Bryce’s behalf seem to reflect the larger anti-status quo mood in politics.

The poll, reinforced by focus groups commissioned by Bryce’s campaign, showed Ryan’s favorability ticking down while his unfavorability numbers rise, for what amounts to an overall 10-point negative shift since Bryce’s last internal poll in August. Ryan’s job approval numbers have experienced a similar shift.

Voters "believe that he’s changed, that his rise has changed him and changed his priorities, and he’s not the same person he once was,” Global Strategy Group’s Matt Canter, who conducted the research, said of Ryan.

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Ryan’s team remains confident but has been staffing up ahead of next year’s election, in which he’ll first have to face a primary rematch against Paul Nehlen, who ran a campaign rooted in Trump-style politics that the presidential candidate himself praised. (Ryan ended up winning by 68 points.)

Bryce has raised the most money of any Democratic candidate in the country, and Democrats think they could at least force Ryan to spend time and money on defense at home rather than campaigning for others. But Ryan is likely to have practically unlimited resources at his disposal.

"Paul's constituents know him well and understand that he's working hard on their behalf in Washington,” said Kevin Seifert, executive director of Ryan's campaign. “We take every race seriously and this will be no different, but at the end of the day, Paul's record of accomplishment for southeast Wisconsin will speak for itself.”

The poll questioned 400 likely voters in the district and was conducted Nov. 27-30.

