It was March 1983, and the buzz at the NFL meetings in Palm

Springs, Calif., was all about the wondrous crop of quarterbacks

in the upcoming draft. At least five were projected to go in the

first round, just like this year. I was sitting poolside when

Jim Finks, the Chicago Bears' general manager, pointed to my

notebook and said, "Write this down: 'In 20 years there will be

one quarterback from this draft who will be remembered above all

the others: Tony Eason.'"

In my notebook I put a star next to Eason, who was on a list

that included John Elway, Dan Marino, Todd Blackledge, Jim Kelly

and, a little farther down, as another possible first-rounder,

Ken O'Brien. Well, an NFL-record six quarterbacks went in that

opening round, and they have combined for 11 Super Bowl

appearances with two wins, both by Elway. Yes, Eason reached the

Super Bowl, but he's best remembered for the 46-10 pasting his

New England Patriots received at the hands of the Bears in the

January 1986 title game. The message here: Greatness is in the

eye of the beholder, at least come draft time, and no one can be

certain which prospect will hit it big.

This year's bunch? Tim Couch of Kentucky and Akili Smith of

Oregon are getting most of the attention, although Syracuse's

Donovan McNabb could sneak in as the second pick. Then there are

Central Florida's gigantic Daunte Culpepper, UCLA's Cade McNown

and the sleeper, who could find a place at the bottom of the

first round, Tulane's Shaun King. "Talk to 10 people," says Bob

Ferguson, the Arizona Cardinals' player personnel director, "and

you'll get 10 ways of lining them up."

"History tells us that two will make it big," says Cincinnati

Bengals coach Bruce Coslet, "and one of those two will be a

great player. Another two will be O.K., and two more will wash

out. And somewhere down in the draft will be another guy who

will be productive for 10 years. The trick is to figure out

which one [of the quarterbacks] will do what."

"The irony of the draft process," says Smith's agent, Leigh

Steinberg, "is that the luckiest quarterback could be the one

picked the farthest down in the first round, because he's going

to the best team."

McNabb could be part of only the second 1-2-3 quarterback draft

in NFL history. Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning and Dan Pastorini

were the top selections in 1971. Each started his career with a

bad team--and each took a terrible beating early on. But there's

something that sets this year's group apart. "They can all

move," says Tom Modrak, director of operations for the

Philadelphia Eagles, who have the second pick. "The mobility of

these guys fits the era of zone blitzes and defensive overloads.

Years ago quarterbacks didn't have that. Everyone was looking

for the big guy who could stay in the pocket."

McNabb, at 6'2", 223 pounds, with a 4.6 time in the 40, is the

most mobile and athletic of the bunch. "He doesn't just avoid

the rush; he takes it downfield and makes things happen," says

Bengals player personnel director Pete Brown, whose team will

pick third. Adds Minnesota Vikings general manager Tim Connolly,

"He's just a tremendous athlete. He played in an offense that

was a mishmash--part drop-back, part option--but he ran it like

he'd been in it for five or 10 years."

NFL personnel men and coaches were eager to see what would

happen during Senior Bowl week in January, when McNabb came

under the tutelage of Oakland Raiders coach Jon Gruden, who

installed his short-pass offense. "Jon really overloaded him

with reads," says Eagles coach Andy Reid. "At times he had three

or four checks coming out of the huddle. He handled it all. His

mind was rapid-fire; he was barking his signals and changeups

like an auctioneer. Smarts, athletic ability, timing, ability to

see and anticipate--this kid has it all."

Culpepper reminds people of, well, nobody else who has played

the position. At the NFL scouting combine, he measured 6'3 1/2",

255 pounds, and in private workouts at Central Florida, his 40

times were in the 4.5s. "Big horse; runs over people," Ferguson

says. "Against Nebraska his junior year [a game that Central

Florida led at the half], he kept his team in the game with his

running. He just ran over people."

He also threw for 318 yards against the Cornhuskers in the

offense of Central Florida coach Mike Kruczek, a former NFL

quarterback. Kruczek's attack was part run-and-shoot with a lot

of NFL-type elements. Scouts like Culpepper's arm, plus the fact

that he has been playing in a pro-style offense. But is he

really that fast? "The 4.5s he ran were in track spikes on a

fast surface," one scout notes. "Against a really quick defense,

like Auburn's, he didn't look faster than the opposition."

"Fast enough," says Brown, "and it takes a real man to bring him

down. I saw the Gridiron Classic all-star game, and one guy came

in clean and hit him with a form tackle and just bounced off. I

know people who think he's the best of all of them."

The fifth quarterback, who's projected to go no higher than the

middle of the first round, is McNown. Among a typical crop of

quarterbacks he might be top 10, but he suffers in comparison

with this year's big four. His arm is good enough for the pros

but not quite as strong as the others'; he's a little short at

6' 3/4"; and he has a slightly sidearm delivery. "I'm hearing

the same stuff on him that I heard about Steve Young when he

came out," says Ferguson. "Hey, all this guy does is play

well--and win. Plus, he's tougher than hell."

Which brings us to the sleeper, who in 1998 had the most

productive year of any college quarterback. How about King's

numbers: 36 touchdown passes and a 68% completion rate for a

12-0 team, six interceptions, 532 yards and 10 TDs rushing--and

he played most of the season with a cast on his left wrist,

which he broke in the Green Wave's third game. Productive as he

may have been, King is only 5'11 7/8". There's that height thing

again. Hey, anyone ever heard of Doug Flutie? "King is the guy I

like most in the whole draft," says San Diego Chargers general

manager Bobby Beathard. "I just wish he was as tall as the other

guys."

Are we forgetting someone? Another sleeper perhaps, someone who

might slip in as a second-round pick and raise more eyebrows?

"Joe Germaine from Ohio State," Modrak says. "He'll drop a few

notches, and whoever drafts him is going to get a damn good

player. Just watch."

--Paul Zimmerman

COLOR PHOTO: PETER READ MILLER Triple threats One of the knocks on McNown (18) is his throwing motion, but nobody questions his toughness; the 255-pound Culpepper (8) can run past--and over--opponents; and the most versatile of the bunch may be the athletic and strong-armed McNabb.

COLOR PHOTO: BOB ROSATO [See caption above]

COLOR PHOTO: DAMIAN STROHMEYER [See caption above]