MLB free agency: Where the eight elite unsigned players will land

Bob Nightengale | USA TODAY

Show Caption Hide Caption MLB set for star-studded free agency class after 2018 season Take a look at the loaded Major League Baseball free agency class set to hit the market next winter.

The free agent market has been historically ugly this winter, and the start of spring training won’t end the freeze.

Eventually, something must give in this impasse.

There’s a season to be played, and it will begin on March 29 no matter how many players remain out of work.

There are about 100 free agents on the market, but realistically, eight impact players. These are the players who potentially will receive in excess of $50 million, with four almost guaranteed of earning more than $100 million.

Sure, maybe not by the opening of spring training camps next week, but certainly by opening day.

That said, let's end this absurdity now. Our elite eight, and where they should land:

1B Eric Hosmer

Hosmer is Exhibit A in Commissioner Rob Manfred’s argument that it’s the agents and the players holding up the market, and not the teams.

Hosmer has been sitting on two seven-year offers for at least a month, if not longer. The San Diego Padres have offered a seven-year, $140 million contract and the Kansas City Royals have raised the ante to about $147 million over seven years.

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There’s a debate among Hosmer’s friends whether he’d prefer to stay in Kansas City or try to be on the ground floor of the Padres’ restoration to greatness, but there’s no secret to the delay. He’s holding out for a nine-year deal, just like Prince Fielder back in 2012 with the Detroit Tigers, or least an eight-year, $184 million deal like outfielder Jayson Heyward received two years ago with the Chicago Cubs. Given how older free agents are valued nowadays, it's not hard to see why he'd want an eighth year. Hosmer would be 35 at the end of a seven-year deal.

Destination: San Diego Padres, seven years, $150.5 million with a vesting eight-year option. (Update: Agreed to eight-year, $144 million deal with Padres on Feb. 17).

RHP Yu Darvish

He was eyeing that Zack Greinke six-year, $206.5 million deal, or perhaps that seven-year, $217 million David Price pact of 2015. He's not going to get close to either, but he will get paid.

Destination: Chicago Cubs, five years, $125 million. (Update: Agreed to six-year, $126 million deal with the Chicago Cubs on Feb. 10.)

OF J.D. Martinez

Martinez had $200 million dreams after hitting 45 homers and driving in 104 runs in just 119 games. If this were a few years ago, he might have really gotten that seven-year, $210 million deal.

But not in 2018.

Martinez’s value is being closely compared to Justin Upton and his five-year, $106 million contract extension he received in November with the Los Angeles Angels, not the $295 million remaining in Giancarlo Stanton’s deal.

The Boston Red Sox, who desperately need a slugger, offered him a five-year deal for about $125 million nearly two months ago, and continue to wait. They want to win, and would love a right-handed power hitter, but don’t want to be stupid about it either.

Why bid against themselves when the only offer for Martinez is a one-year deal by his old team, the Arizona Diamondbacks?

Martinez can say he’s frustrated all he wants, and threaten not to play in Boston, but if he’s not careful, the Red Sox’s patience may evaporate, too.

The Red Sox had trade discussions during the winter with the Cleveland Indians for Edwin Encarnacion, according to club officials with direct knowledge of the talks, but didn’t want to part with outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr.

Maybe those talks are re-visited. Maybe GM Dave Dombrowski calls the Detroit Tigers and lets them know they are willing to take on at least half of the remaining $192 million in Miguel Cabrera’s contract. Maybe panic sets in from both sides.

Destination: Red Sox, five years, $130 million, with an opt-out after 2019.

RHP Jake Arrieta

The best pitcher in baseball in 2015, he seemed destined for a Price-Clayton Kershaw type megadeal.

Yet, along came nagging injuries, reduced velocity, and concerns about his violent delivery that could lead to arm problems before his next contract expires.

One of the biggest fears for teams seeking Arrieta: What do the Cubs know about him that the rest of baseball doesn’t? The Cubs and Arrieta barely even engaged in contract talks this winter, leaving a reunion as unlikely as a Bill Belichick comedy show.

Agent Scott Boras may be relying on old pal Ted Lerner once again to save the day.

Destination: Washington Nationals, five years, $120 million

3B Mike Moustakas

No one is mistaking Moustakas for George Brett, but he’s a premier third baseman who hit a club-record 38 home runs for Kansas City.

Yet, there has not been a single team publicly showing interest in Moustakas. The free-agent compensation with draft pick forfeitures scared away the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Angels. The New York Mets opted for Todd Frazier. The St. Louis Cardinals insist they’re set with Jedd Gyorko and would prefer someone with versatility.

He needs to find a place where he can join a great team, put up monster numbers in a homer-friendly ballpark, and hit the free agent market again next year.

Destination: New York Yankees, one year, $14 million.

RHP Lance Lynn

He’s an old-school soul who’ll take the ball every fifth day, eat up innings, and get ornery when he comes out of the game.

He had hopes of a Homer Bailey-type deal - the six-year, $105 million pact the right-hander signed with the Cincinnati Reds in 2014, before he was a free agent.

Now Lynn just wants a job, knowing that someone is going to get a fierce competitor at a bargain. And almost every club could use him.

The Baltimore Orioles have shown the most interest of late, but keep wondering why the Cardinals haven’t made any attempt to bring him back.

Destination: Baltimore, three years, $57 million.

RHP Alex Cobb

Hey, wasn’t he supposed to be signing with the Chicago Cubs, like two months ago?

Cobb grew up in the Tampa Bay Rays organization, with the only major-league pitching coach he has known, Jim Hickey, now with the Cubs, and whose first manager, Joe Maddon, is with the Cubs, and everyone understood when he kept saying he wanted to be a Cub.

The Cubs even said they were interested in him becoming a Cub.

Money just got in the way.

Cobb wants to be paid like a premium starter, a No. 2 starter in virtually any rotation, with his filthy arsenal of pitches. Yet, despite staying virtually injury-free last year, going 12-10, pitching 177 1/3 innings, with a 3.66 ERA last season, the Cubs point out that last year was the first time he won more than 11 games. Last year was the first time he pitched more than 166 innings. And he still has never made 30 starts.

Cobb has been patient waiting for his price, but so has every other team.

Destination: Milwaukee Brewers, four years, $65 million.

Closer Greg Holland

He was the steal of the winter last year, signing a one-year, $7 million with another $7 million worth of incentives with the Colorado Rockies, saving a league-high 41 games, and leading them to the playoffs.

He believed he was going to turn that gamble into a gold mine.

So, he declined a $15 million option for 2018 in November, rejected a $17.4 million qualifying offer in November, and contract negotiations ended in December when the Rockies instead signed free agent Wade Davis to a three-year, $52 million contract.

Today, he remains unemployed with no one clamoring to sign him, particularly after his 6.38 ERA the second half of the season.

The Nationals continue to say they’re not interested, and the Cardinals say they don’t need him. Eventually, someone is going to break.

Destination: Cardinals, two years, $25 million.

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