Hailed by Michael Salfino of the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” the Prospect Digest Handbook is a perennial favorite among baseball enthusiasts, minor league fans, and fantasy general managers. Now back for its fifth season, the Prospect Digest Handbook is the definitive guide to the minor leagues.

1. Brendan Rodgers, SS

Background: It took slightly more than two full years for Rodgers to go from teeing off against high school pitchers to digging in against the minors’ most difficult challenge, Class AA. But that accelerated path to the big leagues seems to be a common trend for members of the 2015 draft class. Five of the first nine players chosen that have already seen time in the big leagues: Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi, Carson Fulmer, and Ian Happ. And two more prospects – Rodgers, the third overall pick, and Houston’s Kyle Tucker, who was chosen two selections later – are knocking, loudly, on their respective parent’s club’s door.

Rodgers, a 6-foot, 180-pound shortstop out of Lake Mary High School, handled the aggressive debut assignment to the Pioneer League with aplomb. In 37 games with the Grand Junction Rockies, the then-18-year-old slugged an impressive .273/.340/.420 with eight doubles, two triples, and three homeruns. He also swiped four bags in seven total attempts. However, thanks to the hitter-friendly nature of the Pioneer League, his overall production that year was 5% below the league average mark.

The Colorado front office pushed him up to the Sally the following year, 2016, and – once again – the teenage shortstop made it look easy: In 110 games with the Asheville Tourists Rodgers batted .281/.342/.480 with an impressive 50 extra-base hits (31 doubles and 19 homeruns). This time, though, he not only reached the league average production mark, but he sprinted by it as if it were standing still. He finished the year with a 135 wRC+.

Last season Rodgers split time between the California and Eastern Leagues. After opening the year up by slugging a Ted Williams-esque .387/.407/.671 with 21 doubles, three triples, and 12 homeruns over 51 games with Lancaster, Rodgers’ bat slowed slightly as he moved up to the most important test of his brief professional career. He responded by hitting .260/.323/.413 with five doubles and half-of-a-dozen homeruns. Overall, Rodgers finished his second full season in the minors with an aggregate .336/.373/.567 triple-slash line, belting out 26 doubles, three triples, and 18 dingers. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus¸ topped the league average production line by an impressive 51%.

Projection: Rodgers is such a fascinating case. Why? He, like any other minor leaguer in the system, has played in a string of hitter-friendly environments for the entirety of his professional career. Bur he’s done so on an incredibly accelerated time frame.

The Pioneer League, as well as the PCL, is the most run-inducing, offensive-inflating league in the entire minors. That’s only highlighted by the fact the Rodgers strings together a .273/.340/.420 triple-slash line during his debut and it’s still 5% below the league average. He then moves up to Asheville the following year. And, according to StatCorner.com, his triple-slash line goes from .281/.342/.480 to a more mediocre .255/.316/.400 once adjusting for the park. And, of course, his next two stops are incredibly hitter-friendly too.

It’s difficult to get a good baseline on Rodgers’ actual skill set.

So let’s just take a look at his away numbers over the past two seasons:

Road numbers in the Sally two years ago: .247/.310/.372

Road numbers in the California and Eastern Leagues last season: .307/.324/.517

Those are drastically different than his home numers. Good, yes, but not quite the Ted Williams performance level he was showing at home.

As far as the actual tool kit goes, well, it’s kind of all over the board: he offers up plenty of power at the shortstop position, but, on the other hand, as much patience as a five-year-old going through Willy Wonka’s Chocolate Factory. The hit tool is solid, as is the speed. And the defense has generally been average-ish. It definitely needs to be noted that his patience has declined in each of the previous two seasons. Rodgers is going to be a fine big league shortstop, perhaps putting together a few All-Star worthy seasons. And I still say there’s more risk here than most realize.

Ceiling: 5.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018/2019

Background: I’m certainly not prone to large swings in analysis on a year-to-year basis. Or, at least, I try not to be. But I think it’s worth noting on how quickly the industry turned their collective backs on the former second round pick after a he posted a league average showing in the Eastern League two years ago. As a 21-year-old. Heading into the 2016 season, Baseball America had him as the 43rd best prospect in baseball; MLB.com ranked him as #48; and Baseball Prospectus topped both of them by listing him as the 36th best minor leaguer. Then the Mater Dei High School alum went on and batted .242/.325/.399 with 27 doubles, five triples, and 12 homeruns en route to tallying a 101 wRC+. Again, he was basically a league average bat in the minors’ most challenging level as a 21-year-old. But McMahon failed to crack any of the aforementioned publications’ Top 100 lists heading into last season.

On the other hand, McMahon has always been a personal favorite of mine. I aggressively listed him as the 17th best prospect heading into 2016. But even after his huge decline two years ago, I still listed the infielder among the Top 100 prospects in the game – #87, to be exact. Well, Mr. McMahon rewarded my loyalty in a massive way last season. Unsurprisingly, he opened the year up back in the Eastern League. This time, though, he flat out dominated. In 49 games with the Hartford Yard Goats, the 6-foot-2, 185-pound lefty-swinging infielder slugged .326/.390/.536 with 16 doubles, two triples, and six homeruns. Colorado bumped him up to the PCL on June 1st. And his production actually improved: he batted a hefty .374/.411/.612 in 70 games with Albuquerque Isotopes. He also made a brief – and unsuccessful – 17-game stint in Colorado at the end of the year as well. Overall, McMahon finished the year with an aggregate .355/.403/.583 triple-slash line, churning out 39 doubles, four triples, and a career best 20 homeruns. His production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a whopping 57% – the best season of his five-year professional career.

Projection: First, here’s what I wrote in the 2016 Handbook when I aggressively ranked him as one of the game’s best prospects:

“Now for some bad news of sorts – his K-rate two years ago, 25.9%, was already bordering on red flag territory, but it ticked up a bit as he faced the more advanced pitchers (27.5%). The power is an above-average skill as it stands now, but it has a chance to move into plus-territory given his infield position – especially considering all those doubles he’s hit over the past two seasons. McMahon handles lefties and righties equally well and should be in Colorado by the end of 2017. With Nolan Arenado fully entrenched at the hot corner it will be interesting to see where McMahon winds up. Second base? Corner outfield? First base?”

Well, isn’t that a few feathers in my proverbial cap. He did make it to the big leagues at the end of 2017. And the Rockies, seemingly out of nowhere, moved him to second base last season as well. Huzzah! Now back to the analysis. Here’s what I wrote in last year’s Handbook:

“Well, I hate to say it – especially because I like McMahon as much as I do – but I called it, both times. McMahon’s strikeout rate ballooned into full red flag territory as it spiked to over 30% last season and the club wisely decided to move him across the diamond in anticipation of Arenado and him sharing a lineup card. The combination of McMahon’s track record and the couple months of matching production last season should provide enough evidence as to point to a bounce back year in 2017. The move to first base hurts his overall value – thanks to first basemen not contributing as much on defense – especially since he saved more than 40 runs at third base in 2014 and 2015, according to Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics.”

He certainly did bounce back. In. A. Big. Way. Now, it goes without saying, but he’s benefited from some friendly hitting environments. But there’s still an awful lot to love about his future big league aspirations: big time power potential, above-average defensive numbers, strong hit tool, and he shaved significant points off of his problematic strikeout rate. He did struggle a bit against fellow southpaws, but his track record against them suggests it’s just an anomaly. One final note, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, there were five 22-year-old hitters to post a wRC+ of at least 140 in the Pacific Coast League (min. 300 PA): Domingo Santana, Howie Kendrick, James Loney, Javier Baez, and Joc Pederson. And here’s their career wRC+ totals: 116 (Santana), 107 (Kendrick), 103 (Loney), 88 (Baez), and 115 (Pederson)

Ceiling: 3.5- to 4.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017

3. Colton Welker, 3B

Background: Somehow lasting until the early parts of the fourth round two years ago, Welker, a 6-foot-2, 195-pound third baseman from Stoneman-Douglas High School, quickly made a lot of teams regret passing on him multiple times. Welker immediate looked comfortable swinging a wood bat, despite the club aggressively pushing him into the Pioneer League, also known as an advanced rookie level. He slugged an impressive .329/.366/.490 with 15 doubles, two triples, and five homeruns in 51 games with Grand Junction. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 14%. Unsurprisingly, and similarly to that of other top prospects, Colorado pushed him straight up to the Sally. And, simply put, Welker dominated – despite missing significant time due to a lingering groin issue. In 67 games with the Asheville Tourists, Welker slugged a robust .350/.401/.500 with 18 doubles, one triple, and six homeruns. He also swiped five bags, though it took 12 total attempts. His overall production topped the Sally league average mark by a whopping 58%, the best showing among all South Atlantic hitters last season (min. 250 PA).

Projection: Once again, the Pioneer League, his first minor league stop, and Asheville’s home ballpark are hugely influential hitting environments. But it’s important to point out that he hit exceptionally well on the road last season, batting a hefty .302/.355/.419 in 33 games. Welker shows an average-ish eye at the plate, promising power potential, and an above-average bat. Defensively, well, he’s been pretty terrible; he posted a -14 total across his first two seasons.

Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2014, there were eighteen 19-year-old bats to post a 130 wRC+ or better in the South Atlantic League (min. 250 PA). Now, of those aforementioned 18, fifteen of them made it to the big leagues by the end of 2017.

Tremendous, tremendous odds. But here’s the impressive part:

Just watch the defense. It’s going to be a limiting factor. And he’s not likely to stick at third.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2020

4. Riley Pint, RHP

Background: Still searching for the recipe for pitching success in Colorado like Ponce de Leon after the Fountain of Youth. Colorado grabbed the supremely talented high school right-hander with the fourth overall pick two years ago. Pint, who checks in at an impressive 6-foot-4 and 195-pounds, was widely lauded as one of the best pure arms in the entire draft. Like his first round predecessor the previous year, Pint began his professional debut with an aggressive assignment to the Pioneer League. And the results were…mixed. At best. In 11 games with Grand Junction, the flame-throwing teenager averaged just a smidge under a whiff per inning. But he was handing out free passes like they were expired movie tickets; he walked 23 – or just about 13% of the total number of hitters he faced.

Undeterred by his initial wildness, after all Rick Vaughn eventually came around, the front office pushed Pint up to the South Atlantic League last season. The results, this time, looked remarkably similar. In 22 starts with the Tourists of Asheville, Pint posted a subpar 79-to-59 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 93.0 innings of work. He finished the year with a 5.42 ERA, a 4.41 FIP, a 4.57 xFIP, and a 5.52 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

Perhaps the most impressive fact – or unimpressive fact, depending how you want to view it – about Pint’s sophomore professional season is the sheer number of wild pitches he unfurled: 26 in those 93.0 aforementioned innings. For those keeping track at home that’s about one every 3.5 innings.

Projection: First, let’s take a look back at his 2016 debut production through a historical lens:

Between 2006 and 2014, there were no 18-year-old pitchers that posted a strikeout rate of at least 20% and a walk rate of at least 13% in the Pioneer League (min. 30 IP).

During that same time frame there were only eight pitchers of the same age to post a strikeout-to-walk percentage between 6-9%. And of those eight, only one of them – Enrique Burgos – has any service time on his big league resume.

Obviously, not a great start to his professional career. So let’s take a look at his first full season in minor leagues:

Between the 2006 and 2015 seasons, there were just ten 19-year-old pitchers to post a strikeout percentage between 17-19% with a walk rate of at least 10% in the South Atlantic League (min. 80 IP). Half of those arms made it to the big leagues by the end of 2017: Andrew Faulkner, Chaz Roe, Jamie Callahan, Jason Garcia, and Mauricio Cabrera.

Again, it’s a pretty uninspiring group of arms – especially when you consider that the five with big league experience were all eventually converted into full time relievers. It’s still way too early to start talking about Pint getting pushed into a relief role or that he’s never going to live up to his lofty draft status, but he’s going to have to start taking important baby steps very, very shortly.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2020

Background: Phil’s kid has been pretty banged up over the past couple of seasons. Nevin, the son of the former big league All-Star third baseman and career .270/.343/.472 hitter, looked solid in the Pioneer League after the club took him with the 38th overall pick in 2015, hitting a completely league average .265/.368/.386 with 15 doubles, one triple, and a pair of homeruns in 53 games with Grand Junction. But a severe hamstring injury limited him to just one plate appearance in the Northwest League two years ago. And, unfortunately, a fractured hand forced him to miss nearly two months of action last season. But when he was healthy, Nevin, a well-built 6-foot-4, 200-pound corner infielder, slugged a solid .305/.364/.456 with 18 doubles, three triples, and seven dingers in 76 games with Asheville in the South Atlantic League. His overall production with the Tourists, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 36%.

Projection: At this point, it’s beginning to sound a little broken record-ish, but Asheville’s home field inflates offensive numbers – drastically. So, per the usual, let’s look at his home/road splits from last season:

Home: .323/.358/.509

Road: .275/.349/.401

Obviously, the main difference is the slugging percentage. But Nevin’s production was quite solid on the road. He shows an average eye at the plate, developing power which should peak in the 17- to 22-HR area, and strong contact skills. Defensively, he’s been OK, not great, but not bad either. It’s also important to remember that Nevin missed an entire year and stepped into the Sally without missing a beat.

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

6. Ryan Castellani, RHP

Background: Built in a similar mold as Peter Lambert in terms of production. Castellani, who was also a second round pick, spent last season squaring off against the minors’ toughest test: Class AA. And the results were…well…Ryan Castellani-like. The 48th pick in the 2014 draft, Castellani chewed through a bunch of innings – 157.1 innings, to be exact – as he missed a decent amount of wood (7.55 K/9) and limited base runners by issuing few walks (2.69 BB/9). He finished the year with a 4.81 ERA, the worst of his four-year professional career, but his 3.99 FIP and 3.96 xFIP are more or less in line with the rest of his career numbers.

Projection: He may not have passed the Class AA challenge with flying colors, but he was far from failing it. In the end it was just another day on the mound for Castellani. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, here’s a list of 21-year-old pitchers to post a strikeout percentage between 18.5-20.5% and a walk percentage between 5.5-8.5% in the Eastern League (min. 100 IP): Jair Jurrjens and Zach McAllister, two very solid, valuable big league arms.

Castellani, like Jurrjens, is an extreme groundball pitcher armed with an average-ish fastball. And like Lambert, Castellani has some value as a backend starter. And at worst, a serviceable middle relief arm a la McAllister.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

7. Peter Lambert, RHP

Background: Fun Fact Part I: Lambert was one of just two 20-year-old arms to crack the 120-inning mark in the California League; the other being Dodgers prospect Caleb Ferguson. Fun Fact Part II: Since 2006, only 23 different pitchers have thrown at least 120 innings in the California League during their age-20 season. Fun Fact Part III: Lambert threw the 11th most innings for a 20-year-old pitcher in the California League since 2006. Originally drafted in the second round, 44th overall, out of San Dimas High School in 2015, Lambert grabbed the ball 26 times for the Lancaster JetHawks last season, posting an impressive 131-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in a career high 142.1 innings of work. He finished his third professional season with a 4.17 ERA, a 4.41 FIP, a 4.02 xFIP, and a 3.14 DRA (Deserved Run Average). For his career, he’s averaging eight strikeouts and just 2.2 walks per nine innings to go along with a 3.99 ERA.

Projection: Let’s just jump straight into the numbers. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, here’s the list of 20-year-old arms to post a strikeout percentage between 21-23% and a walk percentage below 5.5% in the California League (min. 100 IP): Antonio Senzatela, a fellow member of the Rockies organization who tallied 1.4 fWAR during his debut last season.

And here’s a list of 20-year-old pitchers to post a strikeout-to-walk percentage of 17% of better in the league during the same time: Senzatela, Clayton Blackburn, Eric Hurley, Josh Hader, and Tyler Skaggs. All but Blackburn made the big leagues by the end of 2017.

Lambert doesn’t profile as a mid- to upper-rotation arm like Hader and Skaggs. But he does look like a serviceable #4/#5-type a la Senzatela.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

8. Tom Murphy, C

Background: Whenever someone says baseball players aren’t tough enough just bring up Murphy’s name. The former University of Buffalo standout suffered a fractured arm from an Anthony Rizzo swing during a throw down to second base. Murphy stayed in the game before exiting as part of a pre-planned schedule set up by manager Bud Black in mid-March. Finally recovered, Murphy bounced between Albuquerque and Colorado the rest of the season. The former third round selection batted .255/.312/.426 with 10 doubles, one triple, and four homeruns in 38 games with the Isotopes. As for his work in the big leagues last season, well, it left a lot to be desired: .042/.115/.083 in 26 plate appearances spanning 12 games. For his minor league career, Murphy owns a solid .280/.344/.526 triple-slash line.

Projection: Despite more than a few glimpses of minor league dominance, as well as seeing big league action in each of the three seasons, Murphy has yet to earn a significant look at the big league level. He’s a bat-first backstop who has a history of above-average power, decent-ish walk rates, and a below-average hit tool. And since he was hurt for most of last season, let’s reexamine his work in the PCL two years ago:

And it should be noted that Smith and Willits should well above-average patience during those respective PCL seasons. The Duvall comparison makes some sense, but Murphy swings-and-misses quite a bit more. In the end, Murphy looks like a bat-first backup.

Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2015

9. Ryan Vilade, SS

Background: Fun Fact Part I: Stillwater High School in Stillwater, Oklahoma, is home to six professional baseball players. Fun Fact Part II: Two of those six – Matt Holliday and Brett Anderson – made it to the big leagues. Fun Fact Part III: Vilade, the 48th overall pick last June, is the earliest draft selection in the school’s history. Standing 6-foot-2 and 194 pounds, Vilade – like so many other top prep prospects in the system before him – began his professional career in the hitter-friendly confines of the Pioneer League. In 33 games with the Grand Junction Rockies, the club’s most recent second round pick batted a solid .308/.438/.496 with three doubles, two triples, and five homeruns. He also swiped five bags in 10 total tries. Vilade’s overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by an impressive 32%.

Projection: Vilade showed a tremendous eye at the plate, sporting a near one-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio, with impressive power for the position. Defensively, at least according to the initial metrics, which, admittedly, are incredibly unreliable at times, he was a +1 shortstop. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2014, here’s the list of 18-year-old hitters to post a wRC+ mark between 125-and-140 in the Pioneer League (min. 125 PA): Corey Seager, Forrest Wall, Jon Garcia, Justin Williams, and Max George.

Outside of Seager’s name, the list is a bit uninspiring – especially when the player with the closest BB%, K%, and ISO is follow org-mate Forrest Wall. Per the usual, it’ll be a wait-and-see approach until the sample size gets a bit bigger.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

10. Dom Nunez, C

Background: The organization wisely saw something in the former middle infielder to convince them to push him behind the plate a couple years. But Nunez, who stands 6-foot and 175 pounds, is developing into a decent little catching prospect – especially on the defensive front. The lefty-swinging catcher spent the entire 2017 season working for the Hartford Yard Goats in the Eastern League. And while the overall offensive production has been marred by a poor batting average, Nunez offered up more than a few glimpses of solid future big league value. The former sixth round pick batted .202/.335/.354 with 10 doubles, one triple, and 11 homeruns, the second best total of his five-year professional career. Nunez also went 7-for-8 in the stolen base department as well. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, was just 6% below the league average mark. For his career, he owns a serviceable .247/.338/.396 triple-slash line.

Projection: Let’s just jump right into it. Consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2015, there were 15 hitters that posted a wRC+ total between 90 and 100 in the Eastern League during their age-22 season (min. 300 PA).

Of those 15 hitters, eight of them made it to the big leagues by the end of 2017: Brent Clevlen, Chris Parmelee, Danny Santana, Danny Worth, Denard Span, Ian Desmond, Joe Panik, and Ramon Cabrera.

Four of those eight hitters have been a league average or better big league hitter for at least one season (Santana, Span, Desmond, and Panik).

So despite the less than stellar average, it’s not completely out of the norm for players with similar overall production marks to develop into solid big league bats. Nunez offers up an incredible eye at the plate, solid contact skills, surprising speed for a catcher, and decent pop. Defensively speaking, he’s been above-average in two of the past three minor league seasons and he controls the opposing running game relatively well. Nunez looks like a nice little, better-than-average MLB backup.

Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018

Author’s Note: All statistics mentioned were gathered from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, ClayDavenport.com, or Baseball Prospectus.