February 18, 2018

â¨Black Panther is currently eating up the charts, with a projected $218 million 4-day opening. The film is tracking for the second- or third-best opening weekend for a Marvel Cinematic Universe film, so its status as a hit is practically confirmed, even if it ends up having the worst multiplier in MCU history. That said, and despite having 17 previous films in the series, the patterns for what gives an MCU film good legs or not is hard to pin down. â¨

First, the basic facts. Of the 17 MCU films* that have completed their theatrical runs, four of them have had a multiplier (defined as the ratio between their opening weekend and their final gross) between 3.0x and 3.9x while the 13 others have had a multiplier between 2.0x and 2.9x (no MCU film to date has fallen below 2.0x or above 3.9x). Hereâs a list of multipliers for all the movies in the franchise:

Title Opening Weekend Domestic Total Multiplier Guardians of the Galaxy $94,320,883 $333,172,112 3.53 Ant-Man $57,225,526 $180,202,163 3.15 Iron Man $102,118,668 $318,604,126 3.12 The Avengers $207,438,708 $623,279,547 3.00 Spider-Man: Homecoming $117,027,503 $334,201,140 2.86 Thor $65,723,338 $181,03,0624 2.75 Doctor Strange $85,058,311 $232,641,920 2.74 Captain America: The Winter Soldier $95,023,721 $259,746,958 2.73 Captain America: The First Avenger $65,058,524 $176,654,505 2.72 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 $146,510,104 $389,813,101 2.66 Thor: Ragnarok $122,744,989 $314,444,124 2.56 Iron Man 2 $128,122,480 $312,433,331 2.44 The Incredible Hulk $55,414,050 $134,806,913 2.43 Thor: The Dark World $85,737,841 $206,362,140 2.41 Avengers: Age of Ultron $191,271,109 $459,005,868 2.40 Iron Man 3 $174,144,585 $408,992,272 2.35 Captain America: Civil War $179,139,142 $408,084,349 2.28

Looking at patterns, the first thing of note is that overall gross plays little role in the multipliers. Ant-Man is the second-worst-opening MCU film and the third worst-performing MCU movie domestically, yet it has a higher multiplier than The Avengers, which is still the highest-opening and highest-grossing MCU film. CinemaScore also doesnât seem to be at play, mostly because 15 of the 17 films have received an A on CinemaScore, including the worst (Captain America: Civil War- 2.27x) and best (Guardians of the Galaxy - 3.53x) multipliers. Only one film has scored below an A rating and thatâs Thor which had a rating of B+ and a multiplier of 2.75x, which is pretty solid for an MCU film. The only film to score an A+ is The Avengers, which did have a great 3x hold after the biggest opening weekend of all time (at the time), so there is something to be said for going above and beyond with audiences.

As for release date, we also see a pretty similar picture, mostly because 10 of the 17 film were released between May and July, and include both the lowest (Captain America: Civil War - 2.27x) and second-highest (Iron Man - 3.22x) multipliers of the franchise. Of the three films released in November Thor: The Dark World (2.4x), Doctor Strange (2.73x), and Thor: Ragnarok (2.56x) all had pretty standard deviations if on the lower end of the scale. The only film that was released in April, Captain America: The First Avenger, also had a pretty middle of the road multiplier of 2.73x. The only film released in August is of course the winner of the MCU multiplier race, Guardians of the Galaxy with an impressive 3.53x.â¨

By all accounts Guardians of the Galaxy is the standout victor of the MCU in terms of sheer surprise success. That film, which felt like an aperitif before Avengers: Age of Ultron, ended up becoming the first MCU film not featuring Iron Man to crack $300 million domestically (I know thatâs a silly-sounding categorization, but still a pretty important moment when you look at the box office history of the MCU). It also has the best multiplier of the franchise by leaps and bounds, even far above its successor Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, which was released in May has a multiplier of 2.66x. A large part of that seems to be due to be its August release, which like December/January releases can often hold incredibly well if they open high. Surprisingly, the film had some stiff competition, namely Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, which beat it from having two #1 weekends by opening at $65.5M. But afterwards Guardians held well and cashed in on Labor Day Weekend. â¨

Another metric with a possible effect on the legs of an MCU film is the Rotten Tomatoes score, which does seem to show some corollary between good/bad reviews and good/bad multipliers. Three of the five best-reviewed MCU films (again not counting Black Panther) on RT are in the top five best multipliers (Iron Man - 3.22x, The Avengers - 3x, Spider-man: Homecoming - 2.85x). Likewise three of the five worst-reviewed MCU films are in the bottom three worst multipliers (Thor: The Dark World - 2.4x, The Incredible Hulk - 2.43x, and Iron Man 2 - 2.43x). That said, there are still weird outliers. Ant-Man is in the bottom half of MCU films in terms of reviews, but it did have the third-best multiplier with 3.14x, but thatâs likely due to having such a low opening that solid word of mouth helped a lot. The real crazy one is Captain America: Civil War which is in the top five best-reviewed MCU films on RT but has the worst multiplier of all with 2.27x.â¨

So, what exactly happened with Captain America: Civil War? Itâs hard to say, as the film was hotly anticipated, and had record-breaking trailers, especially with the inclusion of Spider-man. The film is the fourth highest-grossing MCU film, but thatâs mostly due to its opening weekend. It dropped almost 60% on its second weekend, despite having no real competition. However, itâs hard to say exactly why this one in particular had the worst legs. It could be Avengers fatigue, with a team-up movie just one year prior. Could it also be the first signs of the issues with the connected universe, with people not understanding why Captain America and Iron Man are fighting and confused by who all the heroes are? Or just could it be simple disinterest in the material, wanting something fresher? Itâs hard to pinpoint, but itâs a worrisome sign for the lifespan of Avengers: Infinity War.â¨

Now to the final marker, aesthetics. Looking at the top five thereâs a couple of trends in terms of the kinds of films we see here. While Guardians of the Galaxy is a about a superhero team, itâs not really a cross-franchise-team-up movie like The Avengers, so it could be argued four (or if youâre picky three) of the top five films are solo first-time outings. There also seems to be a priority on whatâs new. Iron Man was the first Marvel film and the first superhero film to really tease future installments in a big way (seriously, itâs easy to forget what a big deal the initial post-credits tease was). The Avengers was the first true cross-franchise, superhero-team-up film. Spider-man: Homecoming was the first cross-studio collaboration for the MCU. Guardians even could be chalked up as original from its pop culture-laden soundtrack to its minimal association to the Avengers banner. Meanwhile, four of the bottom five multiplying films are sequels, perhaps showing a lack of general interest in something elongated. Again, it will be interesting to see where Avengers: Infinity War and Ant-Man and the Wasp land in these regards. â¨

Of course, thereâs one superhero film that hangs over everything in terms of legs, and itâs not from the MCU. Wonder Woman first surprised with an opening over $100 million, but then had the best multipliers for a superhero film since the 2002 Spider-Man, ending its run with a massive multiplier of 3.99x. The film did receive excellent reviews but perhaps was most notable as the first big budget (aka costing over $100 million) female-led superhero film, which was a unique feature that could have led to its longevity. â¨

The ultimate verdict is that I think Black Panther has a really good shot at great legs. Like Wonder Woman, it has a unique selling point in being the first superhero film with a majority black cast and the first major superhero film with a black lead since Blade: Trinity, in 2004. It also is being released in February, which has been untested in the MCU so far, but the successful long runs of films like Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman this season gives hope that Black Panther will hold on well too. Much like those films, it could easily benefit from a lack of major competition, with another big budget film not set to be released until March 9th (A Wrinkle in Time). Plus, Black Panther is now the highest-rated film in the MCU on Rotten Tomatoes, which should certainly bring many out just for sheer curiosity on how it holds up to the criticsâ words. This will certainly be one of the moments where we will really see how timing a release for an MCU film matters as Black Panther will show what a major MCU release can do in February, and next year Captain Marvel will test March.

Overall, it seems like the best thing for an MCU film is being unique and hitting at the right cultural moment. I think the increasing estimations leading up to the release of Black Panther this weekend shows a drive of interest in the audience that goes beyond the usual big releases. However, we could easily see another lopsided release with a massive opening weekend with sharp drops downwards. Personally, I think the uniqueness of Black Panther will keep it afloat in a pretty mediocre upcoming release calendar. At the very least, this year will give us three new markers which will help us further pinpoint what exactly gives an MCU film a good lifespan or not.

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M.I. Barish