In 25 years, San Francisco will be a lot whiter Study predicts long trend of diversification will reverse

Contra Costa County is expected to become more diversified in the next 25 years. (Shown: Steavean and Jennifer Taylor with their son, Skyelar, in Brentwood, Calif.) Contra Costa County is expected to become more diversified in the next 25 years. (Shown: Steavean and Jennifer Taylor with their son, Skyelar, in Brentwood, Calif.) Photo: Jason Henry, Special To The Chronicle Photo: Jason Henry, Special To The Chronicle Image 1 of / 5 Caption Close In 25 years, San Francisco will be a lot whiter 1 / 5 Back to Gallery

San Francisco, which prides itself on its diversity and progressiveness, may be well on its way to returning to the white-dominated society it was in the middle of the last century.

A May 31 Chronicle article reported on an unprecedented effort by city leaders, businesses and community groups to curb black flight from San Francisco to the suburbs.

As of 2010, just 6.2 percent of the city was African American, down from 13.4 percent in 1970, when it was the second most populous ethnic group in the city, according to census data. In recent years the trend has continued; the number of black residents has dropped from 60,500 in 2010 to 48,000 in 2013.

But while the number of blacks has fallen dramatically, a new study by PolicyLink and the Program for Environmental and Regional Equity at the University of Southern California (PERE) projects that the city's Asian and Latino populations will shrink by greater percentages than African-Americans in the next 25 years. The study was commissioned by the San Francisco Foundation.

Forty years ago, three out of four San Francisco residents were white (non-Hispanic). Now it's less than one out of two.

The decline of white San Francisco coincided with an influx in Asian residents, whose numbers more than tripled between 1970 and 2010.

Despite projections that the Asian population will increase 45 percent nationally between 2005 and 2050, San Francisco's Asian community is expected to shrink.

According to the study, 28 percent of city residents will be Asian by 2040, down from 34 percent today. The Latino population is also predicted to dwindle, from 15 percent to 12 percent.

The reason? Neighborhood gentrification, soaring housing costs and wages lagging well behind the cost of living.

The projected exodus of Asians, Latinos and others is expected to reverse a 35-year trend in which people of color became the majority in San Francisco, rising from 34 to 58 percent. Whites will again outnumber people of color.

Interestingly, the study predicts the black population will remain flat, at about 6 percent.

As San Francisco becomes less racially and ethnically diversified, its surrounding counties — San Mateo, Marin, Alameda and Contra Costa — are expected to become more diverse.

"In 2040, seven in every 10 San Mateo, Alameda and Contra Costa County residents are expected to be people of color," the study states.

Even Marin County, which has traditionally been an affluent white enclave, will see a major change, with people of color projected to make up 40-49 percent of the population.

The shift in demographics across the Bay Area comes as the percentage of middle-class households is falling — from 40 to 36 percent over the last 35 years — even as they become more racially and ethnically diverse, according to the study.

High-wage earners, on the other hand, have thrived, with incomes more than doubling for those in professional and technical services and finance.

For more information on the racial composition of San Francisco, see the above interactive graphics from the research engine FindTheHome.

via/KQED