Five years ago, lifelong observers of UN climate negotiations would not have predicted a situation wherein China and India, two of the world biggest populations, and developing nations, would be key leaders in international climate action, given their dependence on coal-based power for development.

According to Bill Hare of Climate Analytics, the actions by India and China could become the main drivers in achieving the goal of limiting global temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius increase from pre-industrial levels, which is a key goal of the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement (2015), ratified by India, is an international agreement to reduce greenhouse emissions.

Hare was speaking at a press release at the Climate Change Conference in Bonn on Monday, discussing how India and China are slowing their greenhouse gas emissions. The press event was hosted by Climate Action Tracker at the UN Conference, and the press release disclosed that “China and India are set to overachieve their Paris Agreement climate pledges. China’s coal consumption has declined over three consecutive years (2013 to 2016), and a continued slow decline is expected”.

The discussion on the increasing role of China and India in achieving carbon emission reduction targets is of special significance in light of the fact that the United States is currently rolling back previous policies which would have helped it achieve its climate goals under the agreement.

Prof Niklas Höhne from the New Climate Institute emphatically stated that the Donald Trump administration’s policies would be unsuccessful in achieving US climate goals, whereas India and China were going in the right direction, especially given their increasing investment in renewable energy.

On Monday, at the SBI (Subsidiary Body for Implementation) workshop for facilitative sharing of views (FSV) under the International Consultation and Analysis (ICA) process, India presented its achievements, progress and goals relating to greenhouse gas emissions.

The Indian delegation, represented by Ravi Prasad, Dr JR Bhat and Prof Amit Garg, among others, elaborated on the policies of the Indian government in attempting to achieve its targets, disclosed through the Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change last year. Some of the highlights of these statements were:

- Aiming to achieve 40 per cent of non-fossil-fuel installed capacity by 2030.

- Reduce the amount of carbon dioxide released per unit of gross domestic product by as much as 35 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030.

- Aiming to deliver access to electricity to the entire country by 2019. (Currently, 33 per cent of the population does not have access to electricity).

- Increasing solar capacity by 81 per cent in the past year alone.

- Increasing access to LPG to 22 million households who previously relied on firewood.

- Being able to decouple economic growth and emission reduction, because the last decade has seen India achieve 6 per cent increase in GDP but 3.5 per cent increase in emissions, indicating a positive trend towards sustainable development in the next few years.

The presentation by the Indian delegation was met with considerable praise by other countries, such as representatives from the EU, China, Brazil and Japan.

However, it is unwise to rest on these laurels so early on in our climate efforts because although we may be proactive in installing renewable energy, India still continues to rely heavily on coal for its energy needs.

We know PM Modi is closely associated with the Adani Group, and the Adani name has appeared several times with respect to black money investigations. These connections should worry us immensely.

Last month, research by CoalSwarm and UC Irvine revealed that if India goes ahead and constructs the 370 planned coal power plants, the share of fossil fuels in its energy budget would increase by 123 per cent.

Given the increasing inefficiency of coal as a power source, these coal plants would either compromise India’s renewable energy targets, or being sub-optimal white elephants straining the economy.

Therefore, we see that the commitments and statements made by India on the international stage do not necessarily add up when compared with its plans to expand coal-based power in India. This is complete speculation on my part, but there is serious reason to be concerned about how closely our government is aligned with the coal industry.

For example, the Adani Group, which owns coal mines in Australia, plans to export high volumes of low quality, high ash coal to India. We also know that PM Narendra Modi is closely associated with the Adani Group, and the Adani name has appeared several times with respect to black money investigations. These connections should worry us immensely.

In 2016, NASA disclosed that we have already achieved 1.38 degrees increase in temperature, which is dangerously close to the 1.5 degrees target of the Paris Agreement, with the past 30 years having seen a more rapid increase than the past 1,000 years.

The dangers associated with global warming beyond 1.5 degrees will be devastating, including damage to India’s agriculture and food security.

A report by Oil Change International last year discussed how, if global temperature increases beyond 1.5-2 degrees, wheat yield could reduce up to 42 per cent, not to mention the extreme temperatures which would make survival itself difficult.

India, with its vast population and on the path to becoming a developed nation, has the ability to singlehandedly change the planet’s future, depending on how it deals with it energy demands. So, while the Prime Minister may assure of us of his commitment to solar energy, it is necessary that he simultaneous backs it with an emphatic withdrawal from coal.

Only then do we have the chance of achieving our international targets, and securing our citizens from the ravages of climate change. I would love for nothing more than India to truly lead international climate action.

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