Why Democrats think they have a shot in Kentucky

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Quick Fix


— Kentucky Democrats think they have a shot to take down GOP Gov. Matt Bevin in November after nominating state Attorney General Andy Beshear this week.

— Spirituality guru Marianne Williamson crossed the polling threshold for the early Democratic presidential primary debates, functionally locking up her spot and potentially shutting out major officeholders.

— The Republican civil war of yore is back, with sniping between Senate GOP leadership-aligned groups and the Club for Growth breaking out into public view over a possible primary challenge to North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis.

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Days until the Mississippi gubernatorial primary election: 74

Days until the NC-03 and NC-09 general elections: 109

Days until the Louisiana gubernatorial primary election: 141

Days until the Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia general elections: 165

Days until the 2020 election: 529

TopLine

THE DERBY — On Tuesday, Beshear won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Kentucky, setting up a showdown with Bevin in the Bluegrass State. It wasn’t too long ago that Kentucky had a Democratic governor — Steve Beshear, Andy’s father, left office in 2015 after he was term-limited. But the state has reliably voted for Republicans on the presidential level this millenium, and President Donald Trump carried the state by nearly 30 points in 2016. However, Democrats think they have a shot come November.

Their hope is rooted in Bevin’s unpopularity in the state. Bevin has the dubious distinction of being America’s most unpopular governor in Morning Consult’s quarterly poll. And even among Republicans in the state, he is not particularly well-liked. Bevin won his own primary on Tuesday with just over 52 percent of the vote, holding off a stronger-than-expected challenge from first-term state Rep. Robert Goforth. In a memo, the DGA argued that Bevin is vulnerable on health care (he advocated to add work requirements to Medicaid) and education (he’s long fought with the state’s teachers unions).

But Kentucky is still a red state, and Republicans have a battle plan for Beshear the younger. The RGA’s affiliate, Putting Kentucky First, released a television ad excoriating Beshear, saying he is “trying to ride his Dad’s coattails to higher office,” and that “politics and influence-peddling is the family business.” And Bevin himself is dismissive of polling that shows him as unpopular after his upset victory four years ago. “I have never led in any poll or been popular in any survey that has ever been done,” Bevin told Daniel Strauss at POLITICO’s State Solutions Conference in February. “And here I am.”

Team Trump and other Republicans are keenly aware that a loss by a close ally in a red state could be embarrassing or demoralizing heading in to 2020. Vice President Mike Pence promised the frequent White House visitor “that he would have all the help he wanted” from Trumpworld, POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt reported earlier this month, and “Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who defeated Bevin in a bitter 2014 primary, has put aside the past rivalry and instructed his political team to be helpful to the governor in any way he wants.”

Presidential Big Board

POLLS POLLS POLLS — A new national poll from Monmouth has former Vice President Joe Biden leading the Democratic pack. He has 33 percent to Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 15 percent, Sen. Kamala Harris’ 11 percent and Sen. Elizabeth Warrens 10 percent. Pete Buttigieg is at 6 percent, the last candidate at or above 5 percent (334 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, May 16-20).

The poll also has big debate stage ramifications: the spirituality guru Marianne Williamson got one percent, her third qualifying poll that she’s broken at least one percent. This means Williamson has crossed both the donor and polling threshold, functionally assuring her spot on the first debate stage in Miami at the end of June. Steve Shepard and I have more.

According to Score’s analysis, 19 candidates have qualified. Williamson and the other outsider candidate Andrew Yang have crossed both thresholds, while some elected officeholders — like Sen. Michael Bennet, Rep. Seth Moulton and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio — have not crossed either. If more than 20 candidates qualify, the outsiders are in a great positions to hold on to their lecturns (candidates who cross both get priority, and it is unlikely 20 will hit both thresholds).

THE CASH DASH — Rep. Eric Swalwell is accepting donations in certain cryptocurrencies. Here’s more from CoinDesk’s Yogita Khatri.

STAFFING UP — Nina Smith is Buttigieg’s new travelling press secretary. She was a deputy press secretary at the U.S. Small Business Administration during the Obama administration and spent five years in the communications shop for Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley.

— Sen. Cory Booker hired 12 more than a dozen national team members, including Amanda Perez as national policy director and Jen Kim as states chief of staff, POLITICO’s Natasha Korecki reported.

Down the Ballot

THE SENATE BATTLEGROUND — There’s some squabbling between the NRSC, Senate Leadership Fund and the Club for Growth after POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt and James Arkin reported Thursday that the Club is trying to recruit Rep. Mark Walker to primary Tillis in North Carolina. “Club for Growth had their head handed to them when they challenged Trump in the 2016 presidential primary, and they’ll get the same result here in North Carolina,” SLF comms director Jack Pandol said in a statement. “Weird [the Club loses] all the time. Oh, and for the record, there will not be anything civil about this endeavor,” NRSC executive director Kevin McLaughlin tweeted in reference to POLITICO’s headline about a GOP “civil war,” while also linking to a POLITICO story on Walker being entangled in a corruption probe. The Club shot back on its Twitter account, saying when voters learn Tillis’ “allies are the ones behind the story, it’s much worse for your good old boy.”

And it could be nothing, but Walker’s campaign website is “down for maintenance” with “updates coming soon,” while linking to a donation page. For his part, Tillis said he is “not concerned about winning a primary” in an interview with Spectrum News’ Kevin Frey. He called Walker a friend and said he wondered “if all this chatter is to just actually bait us in to indulging in rhetoric I don’t find becoming.”

THE ABORTION BATTLE — The DGA is set to back two abortion rights opponents, Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards and Mississippi state Attorney General Jim Hood (the favorite in this summer’s primary), which is rankling some progressive Democrats. “People who are not on the right side of history erode the confidence in the Democratic Party that they have our backs at a time when it’s really crucial that women know they have a home,” NARAL President Ilyse Hogue told HuffPost’s Kevin Robillard and Amanda Terkel, saying she didn’t believe party committees should back abortion opponents.

— Colorado Democrats are convinced that criticism of GOP Sen. Cory Gardner over abortion could sink him in 2018 after it failed to stop him in 2012, The Denver Post’s Justin Wingerter wrote.

AD WARS — Facebook is deprioritizing selling political ads on its platform after it will no longer pay employees who sell political ads a commission. “Facebook’s new approach to political ad sales is designed to eliminate incentives for employees to push a more-is-better strategy with campaigns,” The Wall Street Journal’s Emily Glazer and Jeff Horwitz reported. “The ad-buying portal for campaigns is now largely self-serve, with Facebook staffers available to help campaigns register to buy ads, assist if certain ads are stuck in review and provide other basic customer service.”

THE MONEY GUYS — American Action Network, the conservative dark money group, more than tripled its media spending from July 2017-June 2018 (compared to the previous 12 months) to $27 million, according to tax documents obtained by CNBC’s Brian Schwartz.

— New Media Ventures, a seed fund for progressive entrepreneurs, announced a list of 33 finalists that it could potentially fund in 2019, per POLITICO’s Maggie Severns. The fund “is planning to invest a total of $1.5 million into between 10 to 20” of the finalists.

THE HOUSE MAP — Former GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren, who lost to Democratic Rep. Lauren Underwood in IL-14 in 2018, told POLITICO’s Burgess Everett he was unlikely to run again.

CONSULTANT'S CORNER — Deep Root Analytics has promoted Corey Mull to vice president of data science. The company has also hired Max Farago as senior data engineer and Devon Tenney as a data analyst.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “When he engages in the general, it will be like tagging Hulk Hogan into the ring.” — Swalwell on former President Barack Obama getting involved in the election to The Atlantic.

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