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This article was published 7/10/2014 (2175 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

A large number of Winnipeggers believe allegations of cronyism and dishonesty will continue at city hall regardless of who is elected on Oct. 22, a new poll shows.

The latest Winnipeg Free Press/CTV Probe Research poll says 43 per cent of Winnipeggers agree with this statement: "No matter which candidates we elect on October 22, nothing will change at city hall." Fifteen per cent of respondents strongly agreed with that view and 28 per cent moderately agreed.

"A lot has obviously happened at city hall in the last year, year and a half," said Curtis Brown, Probe’s vice president, referring to scandals and allegations stemming from the fire-hall replacement program, the police headquarters project and the seemingly literal collapse of the city’s infrastructure — from street sinkholes to frozen pipes to brown water.

"We live in a cynical age, and people have low expectations of politicians at the best of times, so to see there are four in 10 Winnipeggers who don’t think anything will change after the 22nd of October is interesting and not that surprising."

The poll found 53 per cent of respondents do expect city hall officials to behave differently after the election, which Brown said reflects some optimism across the city.

"There is actually a fair degree of optimism out there, that things will be different over the next four years once the new mayor and council is elected and that really does stand out."

Probe Research conducted a random and representative telephone survey of 602 adults between Sept. 18 and Oct. 1. The margin of error is plus-or-minus four per cent, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s sub-groups.

Probe's analysis of Winnipeggers' responses, has led researchers to conclude that while the community appears divided on prospects for change, there is no great will among the electorate to see a widespread change in council.

Probe researchers also asked how allegations that have surfaced over the past 18 months would influence voters' decisions to cast new ballots for current and former city councillors. In response, 50 per cent said what’s taken place at city hall wouldn’t prompt them to vote out an incumbent.

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"We wanted to get a bit of a measure if people are in the mood to ‘throw the bums out,’ " Brown said. "Are people going to blame current and former members of council for what’s gone on?... I think what the results show, really, is that they’re not going to do that."

City-hall scandals would prompt only about 22 per cent of Winnipeggers to vote against an incumbent, the poll found, while 18 per cent said the allegations actually make them more likely to vote for an incumbent.

The poll found the expectation for change on city council after Oct. 22 is greatest among residents living in the city's core (60 per cent) and in the southwest (58 per cent) and southeast (56 per cent) quadrants. Young people, aged 18 to 34 (62 per cent); the most affluent (60 per cent); and those with a post-secondary education (55 per cent) are the most likely to expect change.

Probe said those most likely to vote for an incumbent candidate live in the southeast quadrant (33 per cent), support the NDP (27 per cent), and have an annual household income of $30,000 to $59,999 (31 per cent).

aldo.santin@freepress.mb.ca