Crime in Denver has dropped by a third as residents have stayed home to combat the spread of the coronavirus, but the shuttering of many businesses has made them an increasingly common target for theft and break-ins.

Denverites reported 4,772 crimes between March 15 and April 12, the first four weeks when many people were no longer going to work or school. That’s nearly a third less than the average of 7,038 crimes reported during the same four-week period in 2019 and 2018, Denver police data show.

The decline is fueled primarily by a significant drop in the number of traffic incidents and drug crimes. But not all crime categories are seeing a decline. Business burglaries are on the rise, as are car thefts and aggravated assaults.

It’s too early to tell whether the coronavirus will have a long-term impact on crime trends in Denver, where the violent crime rate has risen over the past five years. Several other large cities have seen significant drops in crime during the coronavirus.

The emerging crime trends make sense during a time of economic instability, decreased mobility and disrupted routines, said Mary Dodge, a criminology professor at the University of Colorado Denver.

Three main factors affect whether and how crime occurs: opportunity, motive and whether someone is there to stop a crime from occurring, Dodge said. During the coronavirus, some people suffering economically might have more motive to commit property crime to survive, Dodge said. The stay-at-home orders have also jumbled peoples’ routines, creating opportunities where there previously weren’t.

“The crime statistics are pretty much what you might expect during this time period,” Dodge said.

Business burglaries, car thefts rising

Last week, two people robbed the Hertz car rental location at Denver International Airport and drove away in two stolen cars. The week before that, a man was caught on surveillance tape stealing an ATM out of a south Denver bar.

The two incidents are examples of an increase in the number of vehicle thefts and business burglaries in Denver and across the metro area. Denver crime data shows that 175 business burglaries were reported between March 15 and April 12. In that same time period in 2019 and 2018, the city recorded 91 and 84 business burglaries, respectively.

“Most crimes are crimes of opportunity and because people are sheltering at home, we have a capable guardian, which will keep people away,” Dodge said. “That’s just the opposite for businesses. They’re just shuttered down.”

As business burglaries are becoming an increasing concern, Denver police leaders have shifted more staff to night shifts and increased patrols in commercial areas, Denver Police Chief Paul Pazen said. Officers have interrupted business burglaries in progress more than a dozen times, the chief said.

The Downtown Denver Partnership has increased patrols by its private security guards who walk building perimeters and make sure they are secure.

“It’s definitely quieter, but the presence of private sector security and police departments are definitely known,” said Beth Moyski, vice president of special districts for the partnership.

Car thefts are also on the rise across the Denver metro area, said Lakewood police Cmdr. Mike Greenwell, who oversees the Metropolitan Auto Theft Task Force. The numbers of auto thefts has risen every week from the 268 reported the week of March 15 to the 337 reported last week.

“An increase isn’t necessarily unusual as the weather warms up, but this particular year we jumped pretty significantly from one week to the next,” he said.

What the data show

Every day, Pazen gets an update every day on crime trends in Denver, and some of what he’s seen recently concerns him.

Aggravated assaults have risen in recent weeks, he said. In the first weeks under social distancing, the average weekly number of aggravated assaults hovered in the high 50s, Pazen said. Then the numbers began to rise, to a high of 97 assaults in the week that ended April 11. That’s above average for this time period.

“That is obviously trending in the wrong direction,” the chief said.

Other crimes, like larcenies, robberies and public disorder offenses, have remained relatively steady, police data show. Denver police have not yet had an influx of domestic violence incidents as the department and advocacy organizations feared, Pazen said. The number of domestic violence offenses has dropped slightly below average, he said, but the incidents that are occurring are more serious than usual.

Drug and alcohol offenses plunged to a total of 79 in the 2020 period, down from an average of 437 incidents in the same period of the previous two years. Sexual assaults also dropped by more than half to 33 during the four-week period this year versus an average of 74 incidents in 2019 and 2018.

“That just has to be related to the shelter at home,” Dodge said of the drop in sexual assaults. “Bars are closed. Restaurants are closed. We don’t have people out at 2 or 3 o’clock in the morning.”

The largest shift in crime has been the dramatic decrease in the number of traffic incidents as residents have stayed home. Denver had 518 traffic incidents during the first four weeks of social distancing, a 70% decrease from the average of 1,762 incidents in the previous two years. DUI offenses have dropped by half.

Despite the drop in traffic incidents, Denver police and many other Denver-area law enforcement agencies have noted an increase in speeding on emptier-than-usual roads. Lakewood police recently caught a motorist driving 149 mph on a road with a 65 mph speed limit.

“Eighty-four mph over the limit on a roadway in the middle of the day is almost unthinkable,” the department tweeted. “It’s dangerous, reckless and an almost guaranteed way to lose your license and your insurance.”

Denver police have started to analyze crime trends from the 2008 recession for hints of what they can expect in the long term as Denver weathers the economic downturn caused by coronavirus closures.

“We’re looking for similar types of challenges that we will face,” Pazen said.