Last year I wrote my first blog post about the 2016 NBA draft. Almost a year later, I have gone in depth and explored potential lottery guards. This Guard class is deeper than that of last year. There are multiple guards that range in ability, and play style. The NBA is in a golden age when it comes to guard play. Players like Harden, Curry and Westbrook are dominating the association. Because of this, NBA teams are looking for dynamic talents to match up with those superstars. Without further adieu, I will break down the following guards: Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, Dennis Smith JR, Donovan Mitchell, and Frank Ntilinkia. I will break down the positives, the negatives, potential player comparisons, and teams that are a good fit.

Markelle Fultz

Point Guard: University of Washington

Height Wingspan PPG APG RPG PER TS% 6’4 6′ 9.75 23.2 5.9 5.7 27.9 55.8

Markelle Fultz is the consensus number one pick in this year’s draft. But the question is should he? Fultz is a very good prospect who is very solid at everything. The best thing about Fultz? There is no real weakness in his game (he’s only 19). But let’s start with the positives. Fultz has a tremendous feel for the game. This is evident from his 23.2 points per game on an efficient 56% true shooting percentage. Fultz is the complete package offensively, he shoots 41.3% from deep and gets his teammates involved (5.9 assist per game). Fultz’s offensive game becomes more evident when watching UW play. Fultz was the offense, he was in charge, and all the offensive sets flowed through him. Fultz’s offensive game has an unique nuance that is super rare for a prospect his age. Below is a play that shows this off. Fultz’s ability to run the pick and roll is phenomenal. He sets up the big with a crossover and then fakes the next big man with a subtle head fake to dish to an open teammate for the score. The pick and roll is the most important play in the NBA, and Fultz’s ability to run a PNR or pick and pop is uncanny.

Fultz is very good at getting into the lane and finishing. Fultz changes pace to get into the lane and create for himself or others effectively. Fultz can finish with either hand, and contort his body to lay the ball in. The most important superstar trait that Fultz possess is bail out ability. When the shot clock gets low a team can just give the ball to Fultz and get out of the way. In the two games I watched, Fultz showed the ability to create space and hit contested jumpers. This is a valuable skill to have. The best players in the NBA can always make something happen with 5 or less seconds on the shot clock.

The final positive that I am going to touch on is Fultz’s ability to grab a rebound and go. Fultz is a good rebounder for a guard. Once he grabs a rebound he quickly pushes the ball for easy points in transition. I mentioned previously that Fultz’s uses multiple speeds to get past defenders, and this highlight proves this. Fultz grabs the ball and then around half court turns on the jets to drive past two defenders and hits a tough layup. Overall, Fultz is an excellent on ball player who can create for himself and others. Coupled with an unique feel for the game, Fultz is a very polished player.

However, there are some areas in which Fultz can improve. First and foremost is defense. Fultz has the physical tools to be a good defender at the next level, but he isn’t there yet and has to improve. One area I noticed where Fultz can improve is not biting on fakes. Fultz tends to jump and go for the block when closing out. Veteran players in the NBA can take advantage of this and either draw a foul or drive past him. In addition to this, Fultz’s defensive intensity can vary throughout a game. There are moments where Fultz is locked in; however, there are times where Fultz doesn’t fight around screens or isn’t in his stance and gets taken to the hoop.

Other things that Fultz’s needs to improve upon is his free throw shooting (65%) and cutting down his turnovers. Fultz’s assist to turnover ratio was less than two, and that is not ideal for an NBA point guard. The turnovers can be partially explained by a high usage rate, and free throws should improve with practice.

Another thing that I want to address is Washington’s team record and how it impacts Fultz’s draft stock. It doesn’t. Washington was not very good this year. Teammates bricked a lot of open shots, and no one could consistently create offense outside of Fultz. To blame a 19 year old for these shortcomings is asinine. After all your are not drafting the whole UW team.

Fultz will be a great player and the negatives he can grow out of with good NBA coaching. The negatives that Fultz does have are common among young NBA players and I am being picky when dissecting his game. These negatives should not scare teams off, and the Boston Celtics will be chomping at the bit to draft Fultz.

The best case scenario for Markelle Fultz is a player similar to James Harden. Fultz isn’t as adept at drawing fouls, but he does project as a better defender. They have a very similar feel when driving to the basket. Both are crafty players who change speed to drive past defenders, both are lights out shooters, and they can create for others out of the high pick and roll. The floor for Fultz is a D’Angelo Russell type player. A player who will be good for 10 years and may make an all star game or two throughout his career. Fultz is the ultimate safe pick, and because of that I believe he will go number one to the Boston Celtics.

Lonzo Ball

Point Guard: UCLA

Height Wingspan PPG APG RPG PER TS% 6’6 6′ 7 14.6 7.6 6.0 24.7 67.3

Moving onto the most polarizing player in the Draft and arguably ever. Lonzo Ball is in a media spotlight due to the antics of his father (side note: I find Lavar Ball hilarious and see his vision). Lonzo Ball is one of the most unique players in the draft. The most impressive thing about Ball is his passing ability, and wow he is an amazing passer. It’s not just passing either, his vision and mentality are contagious and can completely revolutionize an offense. His passing and vision is that good. Ball is the best passer to enter into a draft in quite some time. Below is a play that shows off Ball and what he does best. Ball passes up an good shot in order to get a great shot. Lonzo throws a perfect pass to TJ leaf for the dunk. This type of passing is contagious, and because of Lonzo, UCLA had one the best offenses in the country. Fun fact, Lonzo’s offensive rating was over 131. The best offensive rating in the NBA last year was 129. Lonzo’s offensive abilities are rare. In addition to being an elite passer, Lonzo pushes the tempo better than any player in the draft. Lonzo pushes the ball at a mach five up the court. This gets his teammates easy buckets and puts immense pressure on the other team. Look at this play below. This is off a missed free throw. In less than three seconds UCLA is able to get a good shooter a quality shot. Completely ignoring the pinpoint accuracy for a moment, this is crazy how he can push tempo like this. NBA players like Kevin Love have made a living of throwing deep passes to teammates. Lonzo copies this and makes it look effortless in the process.

The third elite trait that Ball has is shooting. Ignoring his form for a second, Lonzo ball has range. As soon as he steps over half court he is in range. More than half of Lonzo’s shots were threes and he was still able to connect on more than 41% of them. Your honor exhibit A. Lonzo is able to create space with a step back and drain the shot from the logo. This floor spacing opens up lanes for driving and space. Which is paramount in today’s NBA (Warriors and Cavs).

Unlike his Fultz counterpart, Lonzo has some real issues that need addressing. First, is the shooting form. Lonzo has a low release and he moves the ball from the left to the right in a weird sweeping motion. This represents a problem. First, this motion makes the shot easier to block given the release point and motion. However, the bigger issue the space required to get his shot off. Because of this, Lonzo is limited to threes and layups. Lonzo needs to figure out a way to score off the dribble or in the midrange if he wants to be a MVP type player.

In addition to the shooting motion, Ball doesn’t have elite agility to get past quick defenders. This was apparent during the NCAA tournament when Ball was matched up with De’Aaron Fox. Ball had a hard time breaking down Fox off the dribble and settled for jumpers. Ball is in no way a bad athlete; however, he doesn’t have the quickest first step. This could be a problem for Ball in the NBA. Ball will need to use his size to get to his spots at the next level.

Overall Ball is a very high risk high reward prospect. He has hall of fame caliber passing and vision, but his unorthodox shooting method will make GMs double take. If Ball reaches his potential he can be Jason Kidd esque. However if Ball isn’t able to overcome his shooting motion he will be shaun livingston with three point range. I do believe that Ball should look at Livingston’s post game as something to add to his arsenal.

The team that I think is the best fit for Ball is the 76ers. Ball and Simmons can create one of the best passing duos of all time. Ball’s range also opens up driving lanes for Simmons, and post up opportunities for Embiid. If Ball fell to the 76ers, I could see the 76ers making a playoff push next year.

De’Aaron Fox

Point Guard: University of Kentucky

Height Wingspan PPG APG RPG PER TS% 6’3.25 6′ 6.5 16.7 4.6 3.9 22.6 54.8

De’Aaron Fox is one of my favourite players in the draft, and you could make a case for him going in the top 2 picks. Fox is quick like a fox, and this is evident every time he is on the court. Fox darts into the lane with tremendous quickness and uses this foot speed to stay in front of his man for 94 feet. Fox’s athletic ability is one of his main draws as a prospect. The ability to get into the lane at will is rare in the NBA and a valuable skill that is useful in any offence.

Take this play above, Fox luls his defender to sleep with a hesitation dribble and then explodes with a cross over to get into the lane. This can wreak havoc on any defense in the NBA. This is why Fox is valuable, because you cannot teach this athleticism. Once NBA coaches get their hands on Fox, they can hone this skill and integrate it into an offence. The play also shows the ability to finish over a defender with a floater. Fox is a good finisher around the rim and in the lane. Combining quickness and finishing ability makes for a nasty combo.

Another great trait that Fox has is his defence. Fox is a good defender at his age, and with his elite quickness can be a great defender at the next level. While watching Fox, it is apparent that he is engaged defensively. Often he guards the best opposing guard and picks him up full court. Fox also has good defensive instincts when guarding opponents. He knows when to go for the ball and when to play conservative. This is evident by his low foul rate (2.5 per game). A defender who plays like Fox does and to only pick up 2.5 fouls per game is fantastic (because you can’t guard from the bench). The play below shows off Fox’s athleticism and his defensive instincts. Fox recognizes the play and goes for the steal and converts. Although, this can be a doubled edge sword if he fails to convert. But, elite quickness does give Fox some leeway to gamble due to his ability to recover.

Fox isn’t perfect he has one major flaw; shooting. Fox is a bad shooter from three. Fox shoots under 25% on less than 2 threes per game. Given the importance of shooting and space in the NBA, Fox will need to become a respectable shooter to become elite. There are a lot of prospects every year who struggle with their shot (Winslow, Smart, Leonard, etc). Most of them don’t turn out, but there are a few who are able to develop a shot. The pessimist would see another lottery guard who can’t shoot. However, I like Fox and will be an optimist. Fox shot 74% from the free throw line which is a good number. Fox’s jump shot isn’t fundamentally broken (a la MKG) and with enough reps and slight tweaks to his form, Fox could be a good shooter.

Fox’s ceiling could be that of a John Wall. Using elite quickness and athleticism to get into the lane and create for himself and others. Fox can also be a very good defender with his physical attributes as well. A floor for Fox would be Schroeder Jr with better defense.

There are two perfect landing spots for Fox in my opinion; Lakers at 2 or the Kings at 5. Both of these spots would start Fox next to a good shooter (Hield and Russell). Fox could also mask the defensive problems that both these players have and guard the opposing team’s best guard. Overall Fox’s talent is salivating, and better shooting could unlock an All-NBA player.

Malik Monk

Shooting Guard: University of Kentucky

Height Wingspan PPG APG RPG PER TS% 6’3 6′ 3.5 19.8 2.3 2.5 21.5 58.6

Basketball is a simple game, put the ball in the basket. Getting buckets is what it’s all about at the end of the day. No one in this draft class is as adept at getting buckets like Malik Monk. Monk is a scorer who can score in a variety of ways. He can shoot well behind the three point line. He can score with ease off the dribble (ie catch and shoot), hit contested shots anywhere on the court, and he is good at finishing around the rim. Monk’s ability to score will make him a top 10 pick in this year’s draft. Let’s analyze where Monk will fit in the next level. Monk is very good at moving without the basketball. He has a good feel of how to maneuver around screens and get himself open for good looks at the basket.

Here’s a play where Monk excels at. Running through a variety of screens, Monk frees himself up for an easy shot. This also shows that Monk is a very capable of scoring off the dribble and isn’t limit to be a catch and shoot type player (ie Kyle Korver).

Here’s another clip that shows off what Monk does well. Monk is able to come off a curl screen and lay the ball in. He uses his athleticism to explode to the hoop and finish. Instead of settling for a jump shot at the top of the key, Monk realizes that he can drive to get a better look at the hoop.

What makes Monk so deadly coming off screens is the attention that he garners given his lights out shooting. Looking at Malik’s shot chart shows that he is an elite shooter. He shot nearly 40% on 262 three point attempts. Those are great numbers and help create space for other players within an offence. Malik has fantastic offence scoring ability and will be able to leverage that into a successful NBA career.

Like every other prospect, Malik Monk isn’t perfect. The biggest issue with Monk is his size. Monk is listed at 6’3 and largely plays off ball. This is a problem because he’ll be undersized when guarding opposing shooting guards. Monk has a small wingspan for NBA purposes (6’3.5) which can make defending taller players even more difficult. Monk will need to improve on defense in the NBA or he could become a one way player with limited upside.

Well some now maybe asking ‘why can’t Monk play point guard?’ well he could, but he only averaged 2.3 assist per game, and wasn’t asked to create for others at Kentucky. This would be a tough transition and could hinder his development in other areas. Forcing Monk into a point guard role could limit what he does best and that is scoring.

Overall a player comparison that I like for Malik Monk is Michael Redd as a ceiling. Redd was an All-Star who could light it up on any night from in the paint or from deep. Although Redd was taller than Monk, I believe that their styles of play are similar. For a floor, Monk projects as a Lou Williams type player who can fill up off the bench. Monk is a ready made scorer and just needs the ball in his hands.

The best fit for Monk is somewhere where he can play defend opposing point guards but isn’t tasked to be the primary ball handler on offence. In the top 10 the most logical fit for Monk is Philadelphia. The 76ers can run the offence through Ben Simmons who is a point forward. Because of this, monk could play off ball and create space for driving lanes and post up opportunities.

Dennis Smith Jr.

Point Guard: North Carolina State University

Height Wingspan PPG APG RPG PER TS% 6’3 6′ 3 18.1 6.2 4.6 23.1 56.3

Dennis Smith Jr was one of the most sought after high school basketball players last year, and he delivered on that hype in 2017. Smith is an explosive athlete who can take over games single handedly. Smith was in a similar situation like Markelle Fultz was in Washington. They were asked as freshman to be the offence for their team and create not only for themselves but create opportunities for others. To a large extent Smith Jr did this very well. The first thing that I noticed about Smith Jr is his athleticism. Smith Jr isn’t quite Westbrook or prime Rose levels of athleticism, but he isn’t far behind. Smith uses this to his advantage. Smith can accelerate around defenders to get to his sports for either a shot or a pass. Smith also has the strength to take hits and alter his shot successfully. This is a hard skill to learn, but Smith is on the right track.

This drive shows off all of Smith’s athleticism. First, Smith accelerates around the defender to being his drive. He uses a cross over to get the defender leaning one way before he drives into the paint. Next he uses his strength to take the bump from the defender to create contact and draw a foul. Finally Smith has enough hang time and presence of mind to alter his shot to avoid the blocker and score the basket. This is something special.

Here’s another display of Smith’s tantalizing athleticism. Although this game is over, just look at where he takes off from and the power that he dunks with. That’s something that you can’t teach, and why an NBA team would be excited to draft Dennis Smith Jr.

Other areas that I like in regards to Dennis Smith Jr’s game is his ability to create for himself and shoot with range. First, Smith has bail out ability. Meaning, late in the shot clock a team can just give the ball to Smith and he can make something happen. This is a superstar quality that Smith possess. All of the top tier NBA players have this, it’s what separates good NBA players from great ones. Second, Smith has great shooting range. Smith shot 36% on nearly 5 threes a game. This will keep defenders honest and force those defenders to chase him over screens. In turn, this will make it easier for Smith to drive into the lane and create.

Areas where Smith needs to improve upon are defence. Smith played on a very bad defensive team at NC State, and Smith wasn’t good either. Now it is harder to focus on defense when your team isn’t good defensively, but this doesn’t completely absolve Smith either. There were times where Smith seemed lost or completely out of it at the defensive end. Here is a play that sums up the positives and negatives of Smith as a prospect. The first part of the play, NC State is in a 2-3 zone in which Smith has responsibility for above the break threes. Smith completely fails to recognize this and gives up an open shot. Luckily Duke misses. The next part of the play shows where Smith excels. On a partial fast break, Smith uses his athleticism to split two defenders for an open layup. So I guess the question that NBA teams will ask, ‘are they willing to overlook defensive lapses for All-Star potential?’. My guess would be yes.

One comparison that I like for Smith Jr is 2011-2012 Derrick Rose. Smith Jr isn’t as athletically gifted as pre injury rose so I believe that after-first-knee-surgery rose is a good comparison for Smith.

So what team is a good fit for Smith? I believe the Knicks are a point guard needy team that will be chomping at the bit to draft a potential star in Dennis Smith Jr. Smith can be a great complement with Porzingis as New York tries to turn the ship around.

Donovan Mitchell:

Shooting Guard: University of Louisville

Height Wingspan PPG APG RPG PER TS% 6’3 6′ 10 15.6 2.7 4.9 21.7 53.4

The only sophomore on this list is Donovan Mitchell, a shooting guard out of Louisville. Mitchell is a smaller guard but makes up for it in a big way with a 6’10 wingspan. This wingspan represents one of the main draws of drafting Mitchell; defense. Donovan Mitchell projects to be a positive defender at the next level. Mitchell is a good athlete who has the quickness to stay in front of his man. The added wingspan helps contested shots, clogs up passing lanes, and makes it easier for Mitchell to recover if he does get beat on the defensive end. Here’s a gif that illustrates what Mitchell does well on the defensive end. Mitchell goes under the screen to force a jump shot. He then uses his length well to contest that jump shot and force a miss. Also it is important to notice how Mitchell avoids contact from the screener to cleanly contest this look. Mitchell was phenomenal versus Georgia Tech. By my count he only gave up two baskets in the second half and forced a lot of turnovers and deflections throughout the game. Mitchell’s defensive potential is great and is a key reason why he will be a late lottery pick.

The other aspect of Mitchell’s that is intriguing is his ability to shoot with range. Mitchell shot better than 35% on nearly 7 threes a game. This bodes well for Mitchell’s transition to the NBA game. Mitchell is at his best off catch and shoot scenarios. Once Mitchell gets his feet set and shoulders square, he can deliver damage from well behind the three point line. Using the play below as an example, one can see that Mitchell is able to step into the shot and hold his follow through to score the basket. Mitchell was about a foot behind the line; therefore, there should be no concerns about shooting with NBA range. Being a 3 and D player is critical in today’s NBA. Every single team in the league needs guys who can both shoot and defend. This makes Mitchell valuable, and should allow him to hear his name called early on draft night.

However, there are some areas in which Mitchell needs to improve upon. First, he’s not great at shooting threes off the dribble. Often times, Mitchell isn’t able to get properly set and as a result he will miss his shot. A second area of concern that I have for Mitchell is that he sometimes can get tunnel vision on the court. I noticed this while he was trying to score in transition. Mitchell would just drive straight into the heart of the defense without having a plan on how to attack. He would just throw the ball up and hope to either make a basket or get fouled. This could subside as Mitchell grows his BBIQ and becomes more accustomed to running fast breaks.

One could argue that Mitchell has the most defined role out of the lottery picks (3 and D). Because of that, I believe a ceiling for Mitchell is Avery Bradley. Bradley is a shorter two guard who is ferocious on the defensive end despite being undersized (6’3). Bradley developed into a great two way player capable of locking down opposing guards and creating offence. Mitchell must develop his offensive game in order to reach this potential and continue to work hard on the defensive end.

One spot that I like for Mitchell is the Charlotte Hornets. Mitchell would slide next to Walker to create spacing and bring defensive intensity to that team. In this case, Batum would slide to the three and MKG could serve as a small ball four or an energy guy off the bench.

FRANK NTILIKINA

Point Guard: International

Height Wingspan PPG APG RPG PER TS% 6’5 7’0 5.1 1.4 2.3 NA 58.1

You may look at the per game numbers of Frank Ntilikina and think that he is not a good prospect; however, basketball is different in Europe where he played. Frank is one of the biggest mysteries in this years draft. The measurables are insane for a point guard. Frank’s best ability is his body and natural athleticism. Standing 6’5, Frank is going to be taller than the majority of point guards in the league and a near 7′ wingspan is even more devastating. A point guard this tall with that much length can make switching on defense seamless and create mismatches on the offensive end. This potential is the reason why Frank will probably go in the top 10 of this year’s draft. I wasn’t able to find a full game of Frank on youtube; therefore, I settled for highlight videos. Admittedly this is not ideal, and does not give me the full picture when evaluating Frank. Anyway he is an impressive physical draft prospect with good athleticism. Here’s an example that:

The first thing you notice about frank is the length and that is evident here. Frank is a plus athlete and has major upside in the NBA. Frank is also a good shooter from long range and that can keep defenders honest at the next level.

But like every other prospect on this list there are some potential pitfalls when drafting Frank. The most obvious concern is how raw Frank is as a basketball player. Frank only played 18 minutes per game last year in the LNB pro A league. Frank will also need to put on weight and tighten up his handle if he hopes to become a dominant player. The other question that should be asked is how was the competition that Frank played against and how does it compare to college basketball. This is brought up a lot for lottery european players (Porzingis, Dragon Bender, Hezonja, etc.). Unfortunately teams won’t get this answer till at least summer league and more likely pre-season. Frank is the ultimate wild card in this years draft. He has arguably the highest upside, but is by far the most raw prospect as far as guards go in this year’s lottery.

One player comparison that I like is a taller version of George Hill. Hill is a very solid player and makes everyone better with his leadership, shooting, and defense. If Frank reaches his potential he has the ability to be George Hill but 5 inches taller and could absolutely wreck opposing team’s offensive gameplans. Frank has All-Star potential and the only question is will he reach it?

Two teams to keep an eye on for potential landing spots for Frank are the Pistons and the Knicks. The Knicks have had success drafting international players high (KP), and Frank could be a versatile piece for the franchise. As for the Pistons, Reggie Jackson over dribbles and is pretty bad on the defensive end. Ish Smith is a point guard, and a fairly decent one at that, but isn’t the long term solution for the Stan Van Gundy. That’s why I believe these two teams are great destinations for Frank.

Overall, this year’s guard class is very deep with little separating the top talent from the rest. Teams who need a point guard are in luck this year as there are a lot of options to choose from. The draft represents hope for the future for teams who are stuck (sans the Celtics), and each one of these players can deliver on that hope of changing a franchise. A quick note, all stats are from basketball-reference and measurables are from draft express.