» Keep or Mulligan?

Yes, we’re on the draw and have roughly 17 live draws (9 that flat out win the game), which is about 33% to win the game for every draw step. The big issue here is that we’re on the draw and that discard spells shut off our hand. Post-board Turbo Depths decks have four copies of Thoughtseize , Duress , and possibly Inquisition of Kozilek depending on the list. You can expect around eight discard spells total and for your opponent to be more inclined with your opponent being more likely to keep a hand with a discard spell. I believe that 33% is more like 16% to win the game if you account for losing Metalcraft for Mox Opal to any discard spell on top of needing a live draw.

» Keep or Mulligan?

Sadly, against Grixis Phoenix eight Goblin s won’t be enough. On top of Young Pyromancer being a natural foil to Empty the Warrens , Arclight Phoenix can race you pretty easily. What they aim to do on average is on the second turn play a discard spells or a cantrip into Dark Ritual and Buried Alive , which would make our Goblin tokens look very foolish. In order for you to make Goblin s, you really want to be making 14-16 tokens.

» Keep or Mulligan?

» Keep or Mulligan?

This is a well-rounded hand that can fight back through discard based disruption, as well as being able to disrupt your opponent. Not every hand needs to be blazing fast!

» Keep or Mulligan?

I normally like hands like this in discard mirrors, you’re able to play out your hand and sit back waiting for those 33% odds every draw step to win. Arclight Phoenix changes things, typically you’re waiting to just draw Infernal Tutor into Ad Nauseam . The difference here is the Arclight Phoenix decks pressure your life total a lot faster while having plenty of hand disruption.

» Keep or Mulligan?

This hand just loses to a turn one discard spell or possibly even Daze (usually only two copies), but making more than 10 Goblin s puts you in a position where you can race a second turn swing for nine game from the firebirds. It’s certainly a risk versus reward scenario, but you’re not playing #blackbelcher to play it safe!

Hand 6: (on the play)

» Keep or Mulligan?

Mulligan This hand is incredibly close, but ultimately, I think you’re too far away from winning. While discard spells are good in combo mirrors and Echoing Truth can bounce or counter a Buried Alive, I can’t see this hand winning by turn four. What this means is that your opponent will have plenty of opportunities to cast their discard spells or dig for Flusterstorm. I can’t fault anyone for keeping this hand, I just think I’d rather be more proactive.

Hand 7: (on the draw)

» Keep or Mulligan?

Keep Post-board your opponent has access to Flusterstorm, Spell Pierce, Engineered Explosives, Echoing Truth, and Tormod’s Crypt on top of their main deck discard spells (plus Daze) — these still aren’t Force of Will. If your opponent casts a cantrip, they’re likely dead. I really don’t like the Goblins plan post-board as your opponent just sided in three to four answers, which means with this hand I want to cast Ad Nauseam. While this hand could lose, the probability of winning is just so much higher.

Hand 8: (on the play)

» Keep or Mulligan?

Keep Some of you may be looking at this hand as an Empty the Warrens hand, I think that’s wrong. As I mentioned in hand seven, they bring in too many answers for our token friends. Instead, this is a Dark Petition hand that will likely win on turn three or four while having two pieces of back-up. Sign me up!

Hand 9: (on the draw)

» Keep or Mulligan?

Keep It’s not pretty, but this hand is definitely better than your average five. Without drawing a Lion’s Eye Diamond or Brainstorm, you’re pretty far off from winning but it’s certainly possible!

Hand 10: (on the play)

» Keep or Mulligan?