OK, how is this for a theory?

When two teams play against each other, one having lost badly the week before and the other having won marginally, the team that loses badly will almost ALWAYS beat the narrow victor from the previous round.

Let’s coin it ‘The Rebound Effect,’ and it’s never been more evident than in today’s competition.

OK, ‘always’ in capitals is a bit too emphatic, but there is Richmond at the top, Carlton and Brisbane at the bottom then a glut of ordinary sides in between. Any one of these 15 clubs can beat any other on their day.

Finals Week 1

Several times in 2018, a team that was whacked responded with an upset win against a side that had narrowly won the weekend before.

Think North Melbourne in Round 2, the Bulldogs in Round 3, Hawthorn in Round 4 and, if not for Jake Carlisle’s slippery fingers, St Kilda in Round 5. Adelaide’s stirring victory over Sydney last Friday is perhaps the most classic example.

Alas, tipping has been a nightmare in 2018.

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Ask yourself this: Who is the second-best side in the AFL at the moment? Straw poll 50 punters at a shopping centre and you’d get 10 different answers, a batman symbol and probably a free sample of awkwardly stale Turkish bread from Baker’s Delight.

Who will follow this yet-to-be-fully-Champion-Data-approved ‘Rebound Effect’ in Round 6? I’m cautiously on Sydney to defeat Geelong.

Even though the Swans were not hammered last Friday, they still lost a game they were expected to win easily. It was a bad loss for them. Hence the Rebound Effect is in play.

The result, according to most tipsters, was a foregone conclusion. The Crows were coming off an ordinary loss to Collingwood at home, while the Swans had successfully negotiated the Bulldogs — if only just.

Isaac Heeney’s Sydney has an excellent record against Geelong. Picture: Michael Klein Source: News Corp Australia

Nobody gave the Crows a sniff but they won and did so largely because they were filthy at their performance against Collingwood the week before. It didn’t matter they were without the Crouch brothers, Rory Sloane and Brodie Smith. They got the job done at the SCG.

Admittedly the Swans are travelling to Geelong with their backs against a very prickly wall this weekend. Lance Franklin and Dan Hannebery will watch the match on their overly-sized flat screen TV’s in Bondi — obviously in high definition on Fox Footy — which is a nice thought but not so good for John Longmire.

Despite these outs, Sydney has the wood on the Cats at Kardinia Park. The Bloods have won their last two at the venue and five of their last seven in total.

Of these two defeats across seven games, the most recent was last year’s 59-point qualifying final loss.

Not only do the Swans have something to prove from Round 5, but also from last September.

And Geelong isn’t at full strength either.

Consider their outs of Cam Guthrie, Harry Taylor, Lachie Henderson, Dan Menzel and a little fella called Gary Ablett. They are significant.

Weighted up against Sydney’s of Sam Reid, Hannebery and Franklin, it goes some way to balancing everything out.

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Franklin has booted 31 per cent of Sydney’s goals this year, while Menzel has 21 per cent of his team’s majors. Menzel is not Franklin, but both players have been critical to kicking winning scores.

The Cats were clinical against Port Adelaide last Saturday night. Could they be a touch happy with themselves? Wait and see but don’t be afraid to tip the Swans.

The less we discuss Friday night’s Bulldogs v Carlton game the better. It has all the hallmarks of a Sam Crocker (shocker). It’s also another chance for the Blues to demonstrate what a mistake the AFL made giving them more than zero Friday night matches this season.

But each of Sunday’s three games will be worth watching, starting with Essendon’s date with Melbourne, with both teams making bulk changes due to the short break between games.

Whoever loses this one will be 2-4 and, unless you’re the Swans, good luck making finals from that position. You will need it.

As a brief FYI, there is no room for ‘The Rebound Effect’ here because both teams lost badly in Round 5. It would only apply if either the Dons or Dees won. On that note, has there been a more disappointing team than Melbourne in recent times after wins?

Every time you thought Melbourne was about to kick away by a length or two in 2017, they floundered, much to the amusement of opposition fans.

Anyway, no Christian Petracca swings this clash back into neutral territory. Last year, he was one of two Dees to boot four goals in an impressive win over Essendon. The other? Jack Watts. Ahem.

I’ve tipped the Dees, only just. Melbourne, for all its flaws, ranks third for clearances. Essendon is 17th in this category.

From Etihad Stadium you should catch a train or Uber across to the MCG where Collingwood and Richmond will do battle.

Expect a tackle-a-thon, with the Tigers and Pies ranking first and second respectively in this stat for the year. The only shame is it’s never muddy in modern day football anymore. Insert sad face emoji.

Even if Collingwood loses, as most expect it to, it can win some friends with a competitive showing.

Nathan Buckley’s men are in the eight for the first time in 58 rounds, spanning the entire 2016 and 2017 campaigns. It’s too early to party, but this alone is worth recognition.

Richmond is also humming along at a decent clip. The Tigers are top of the ladder and will play their fifth match in six rounds at the MCG on Sunday. The only thing more entertaining than their football appears to be Jack Higgins’ post-game analysis. What a kid.

The Derby, or ‘Daaaarby’, has not been a showcase sporting event in Western Australia for some time. But both West Coast and Fremantle appear to be nicely placed.

Often the Sunday evening game of the AFL round is a bit like your annoying cousin’s music performance of ‘Silent Night’ at Christmas lunch. Nobody really wants to watch but there isn’t much else to do instead. You may as well tune in.

There is no hint of an annoying cousin about this clash. It will be a ripper.

Nat Fyfe is the only player to notch 20-plus disposals and kick a goal or more in every game this season, while Josh Kennedy is poised for a big one after returning against Carlton last Saturday.

How good is footy?

STAT OF THE WEEK: On Anzac Day, Scott Pendlebury became the third footballer to play in front of 14 million VFL/AFL fans, trailing only Dustin Fletcher and Dane Swan.

TOM’S TIPS (Last week: 6, Running total: 30):

Western Bulldogs

Sydney (Rebound Effect)

Port Adelaide (Rebound Effect)

GWS

Hawthorn

Adelaide

Melbourne

Richmond

Fremantle