OTTAWA — The majority of Canadians believe irregular migration into the country has reached a crisis point, according to a new poll, suggesting immigration and refugees will be a major wedge issue in the 2019 election.

The survey comes as departmental estimates prepared for Canada’s budget watchdog show the federal government spent more than $85 million dealing with the influx of irregular asylum seekers during the last fiscal year, and faces a much larger bill this year as provinces call on Ottawa to cover their costs as well.

Submissions to the parliamentary budget officer, made as part of an analysis of the cost of irregular asylum seekers requested by the Conservatives in June, also show that some would-be refugees are now using “anchor relatives” recently arrived in Canada to enter the country through official ports of entry without being turned back by the Safe Third Country Agreement.

According to the new survey from the Angus Reid Institute, two thirds of respondents believe that Canada has taken in too many irregular asylum claimants for authorities to manage, including majorities of Conservative, Liberal and NDP voters. The results also show that nearly half of respondents overestimate the number of irregular border crossers Canada has received.

The findings suggest “that asylum-seekers and border security are areas of vulnerability for the Liberal Party,” according to the pollster. Recent survey results from Abacus Data also found that among voters who want a change in government, immigration and refugees ranked as the second reason they’re dissatisfied, behind deficits and debt.

According to the RCMP, 11,420 asylum seekers have entered Canada between official border crossings from Jan. 1 to July 15, 2018. Last year, there were 20,953 irregular crossings in total, up from just 2,486 in 2016. The vast majority have entered at an unofficial crossing point in Quebec.

In total, the immigration department, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), the RCMP and the Immigration and Refugee Board have estimated in submissions to the budget watchdog that they spent $85.5 million in 2017-18 to respond to the rapid increase in irregular border crossers. Costs include salary and travel expenses, as well as health coverage for the asylum seekers.

That total will likely increase substantially this year — the immigration department alone is anticipating costs of close to $100 million, including $50 million Ottawa has promised for Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba to help cover housing expenses for would-be refugees. That sum, which the department refers to as a “first payment” in its submission to the budget officer, doesn’t come close to what the provinces have requested. Last week, the Ontario government asked for $200 million from the federal government to cover its costs, demanding “direct and full compensation.” In March, Quebec asked for a $146-million reimbursement.

The influx of asylum claimants entering the country between official ports of entry is largely due to a loophole in the Safe Third Country Agreement, which requires that would-be refugees in Canada and the United States make a refugee claim in whichever country they get to first. The agreement allows Canada to turn away asylum seekers from land border crossings, but not if they cross between official entry points.

However, the CBSA says some irregular asylum seekers are now acting as “anchor relatives” for family members once they enter the country, using another exemption to the Safe Third Country Agreement that allows those who have family members in Canada to claim asylum at official border crossings. “This means that these family members can present themselves at a port of entry and not be considered as irregular migrants,” the agency says in its submission to the budget watchdog. “Also they can’t be refused entry under the Safe Third Country Agreement.”

“I would like to know how many people have used that to date, and how many the government is projecting,” said Conservative immigration critic Michelle Rempel. “It’s something that the government has not discussed in terms of its budgetary figures at all, or in terms of its immigration figures.”

Rempel and the federal Conservatives have long been sounding the alarm about irregular asylum seekers, clearly seeing it as a wedge issue in the coming election. But Ottawa is now facing pushback from provincial Conservatives, too. Last month, Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative government moved to wash its hands of the whole issue, with a statement accusing the federal government of encouraging “illegal border crossers to come into our country,” and demanding that Ottawa “foot 100 per cent of the bills.”

In return, the federal government has decided to funnel the $11 million it had earmarked to help Ontario with temporary housing costs directly to Toronto, bypassing the provincial government. Toronto Mayor John Tory has been publicly calling for help with the influx of asylum claimants, saying his city’s shelter system is overwhelmed.

A spokesperson for Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen said hotel rooms have been booked until the end of September for asylum seekers currently being housed in college dormitories in Toronto who will have to move out in the coming days. Mathieu Genest said a triage system should be in place by that time to help manage the flow of migrants into Ontario and direct them to municipalities with more capacity.

Tory and federal Border Security Minister Bill Blair are expected to make an announcement Friday morning on the housing situation for asylum seekers in Toronto.

• Email: mforrest@postmedia.com | Twitter: MauraForrest