I. Offense

Pluses

Positive recent indicators in regards to development and utility of floaters. In the past, floater would on occasion resemble a set shot; during others, would feature a double-clutch and inconsistent wrist extension. Micro-movements with lower body would often alter trajectory. LaMelo’s form is beginning to gain consistency here as he’s showing an understanding of involved pace-changes and body positioning, and his touch is showing

Catch-and-shoot percentages fare well, which may in part pull from developing consistency with his jump shot form. Has NBA 3-range. LaMelo is beginning to involve more of a knee bend and lower-body utility, which discourages mechanical deviation and assists in generating consistent rhythm

Great coordination with the dribble. Ambidexterity is a strong plus. Consistent display of advanced-level shake and fluid ability in stringing together multi-move sequences. Hesitations (demonstrates great sell here), behind-the-back cross-overs, euro-steps, and inside-out dribbles are often working together. Shows rapid-fire dribbles involving both hands. While his crossovers could use some work, LaMelo keeps the ball close, and shows nice burst during execution

Approaching the best imaginable passer one could hope for with a 18-year-old prospect. Not enough praise can be given to LaMelo in this regard. Concepts like skip passes and high-velocity lefty dishes from a live dribble are exceedingly elementary from his perspective. LaMelo habitually incorporates multiple pass-fakes and finishes the sequence before other prospects would even make the initial read. He masterfully incorporates backspin, even when operating at blazing speeds, and threads the needle with incredible velocity, confidence, and precision. He craftily navigates the ball through gaps in the pick-and-roll, and rifles baseball passes on target, getting great utility from wrist involvement. Can lob entry passes in full-stride off the live dribble. His affinity for pushing the pace–backed by his advanced handling capabilities–catalyzes his ability to utilize his tremendously versatile passing tools

Real ability to score at the rim, stemming from his quickness-vertical leap relationship, comfort in using his left (prefers this hand and direction), spin utility, length, and touch. He protects the ball well using his body and by utilizing a football carry paired with the gather step. Scoop shots and up-and-unders are particularly smooth. Shows positive signs with core strength in his slashes

LaMelo’s off-ball motor is lacking to a degree, but he exhibits a strong understanding of usable space, and exploits the defense via acceleration ability while utilizing convincing fakes

Excellent manipulation of the defense in setting up the pick-and-roll to promote for the best possible contact/timing

Sidestep, double-clutch, and fade-away abilities project well for tougher shot-making

Minuses

Actively avoids contact while conducting his drives. Simple cause and effect leading to loss of efficiency in the lane: as he creates separation, rim protection enters the picture, and LaMelo’s shot goes short as he falls away from the defender(s) in an imbalanced fashion

LaMelo’s shot is starting to come around in terms of rhythm and consistency with mechanics, but there are still numerous red flags. Both of LaMelo’s elbows flare out wide, and his release point can sit as low his nose. His right hand sits on the side of the ball as opposed to the bottom; his left thumb is involved in the shot motion to counteract the spin from the right. His base sees variance from time to time with the right leg periodically sticking out to begin the motion; can land with both feet facing perpendicular to the rim. Amount of knee bend and lower body involvement has been inconsistent. Sometimes inserts a backwards lean involving a kick-out, which offsets his balance. Follow-through has been inconsistent. Outside shot is technically a set shot; doesn’t generate much lift

Simple posturing preferences likely work against him. In a right-to-left crossover, sometimes will keep left foot “open” which widens his stance and doesn’t work to sell a hard drive right. Has an affinity for throwing his feet way out in front–take a behind-the-back jump stop crossover for example–where he can spend his next two steps regaining his balance

Demonstrates understanding of screen angling and timing, but lacks the verve and physicality to provide anything useful in these situations–often tossed aside by the opposition

Shot selection portends poorly: will shoot too early in the possession, with clearly compromised balance, across his body at high speeds, or many times in succession. Can unnecessarily complicate easier looks

Questions to Consider

How would LaMelo’s game and gifts for distribution fare in a slower-paced setting, especially given that he seems to be quite dependent on rhythm?

Can LaMelo develop a post game in conjunction with adding some bulk? How will this open up his passing game, even more?

Will he readily welcome contact as he starts to grow into his body and generate more FTA’s? What sort of foul-drawing tactics can he employ?

How long will it take to shake the iffy shot selection?

Can he incorporate a pull-up game to feed off of his touch?

II. Defense

Pluses

Capable of disrupting the dribble and passing lanes thanks to especially quick hands and an ability to read a half-step ahead (noting that there is some anticipation ability lost from offense to defense–likely a product of attentiveness)

Lateral speed and physical flexibility project to be quite solid at the next level, as does his turn-and-run speed

Possesses an interesting approach in conducting his lateral slides. The lead foot will, on occasion, align parallel to the ball with the back foot remaining mostly perpendicular. This enables him to smoothly transition into a turn-and-run

Legitimate tools for defensive rebounding: max vertical (featuring a quick jump), intent, length, and reading the glass

Positive signs with screen navigation: can get skinny while maintaining nice speed, he handles corners fairly well, and covers passing options with length while recovering

Boasts multi-positional defensive potential, as length, mobility, and reactivity transect at a high point

Minuses

Habitually over-helps in an effort to land a steal or block. Executes near-meaningless double-teams. Refuses to stunt-and-retreat or call for a switch, which leads to unmarked shooters and/or defensive breakdowns. Weak-side rotations which would call for a bump/stunt, contest at the rim, or charge-draw attempt are carried out with half-assed attempts to swipe at the ball, and nothing else

Lackadaisically clicks heels together in an upright defensive stance as the opposition brings the ball up the court. Engagement comes and goes, and does not surface when expected–lack of aggression in suitable circumstances (e.g. picked up dribble, loose dribble, when the shot goes up, etc.)

Will likely run into trouble at the next level when the closeout is immediately attacked. Will lead the closeout with the wrong foot forward and get turned around. In situations where he looks to decelerate with a jump stop into a defensive stance, LaMelo has a proclivity for planting (or launching) his feet in front of his body which upsets his center of balance

Does not react appropriately to precarious defensive positions: curiously decides against a key box-out, close-out, weak-side rotation, or the application of ball pressure with semi-regular frequency. Will go toe-to-toe versus a slashing ball-handler and decide to immediately cease activity (see: correlation with instances that would involve contact)

Can be seen overreacting to jabs and fakes, often with a lunge, putting himself out of position

Habitually loses sight of his man in a variety of scenarios. This also extends to the defensive glass, where he neglects to find a body and/or use his lower body to box out

Shows a reluctance with executing the hip-swap–seemingly less due to hip stiffness, and more due to natural tendency (generates nice burst with the back leg push-off which helps him remain competitive)

Questions to Consider

Defensive rebounding numbers are inflated due to LaMelo habitually leaving his man and remaining stationary by the hoop–what’s his real ceiling here?

How “coachable” are his curious defensive tendencies, especially effort-based ones?

III. Statistical Profile

Courtesy of Basketball-Reference and Synergy Sports Technology:

Key notes:

Below average (47th percentile) in Overall Offense

Low scoring efficiency with high 3PA volume acting as a large detriment; FTA:FGA rate unspectacular

AST:TOV rate illustrates ball protection and passing acumen

Has grabbed steals and defensive boards at a promising rate

Has logged zero taken charges over 14 games

Spot Up efficiency shows surprisingly well

Converted on 15 of 37 Floater/Runner attempts for 40.54% (not pictured)

Transition PPP and PP(P+A) have fared poorly, despite his incredible potential in this particular facet

IV. Physical Profile & Miscellaneous

August 22, 2001 DOB (18.26 years)

Likely lands in the “B” tier athletically among archetypes of the same ilk

Catch-and-shoot motion shows a big range speed-wise, from 0.60-1.10 seconds starting from the pocket

35.5-36.5″ projected vertical leap

6’6.5″, 180-185 lbs.(?), and still growing–has recently put on a little muscle

6’10.25″-6’10.5″ projected wingspan

Long legs, high center of balance. Off-ball (O), on-ball (D) tendencies can welcome wobbly posture

Involves minimal upper body with his running form

Generates an extraordinary amount of knee bend while shifting at high speeds in the open floor

Does not yet show a willingness to put his body on the line at either end

Strong positive indicators with core strength

Will orchestrate some scrambles and switches defensively, but appears to be reserved and not overly-communicative

V. Archetypal Diagnosis

Offense: Lead Ball-Handler

Defense: Versatile/Team-D

VI. Gradient Score vs. Same-Archetype Prospects

VII. Overall Outlook

The 18-year-old LaMelo Ball, who is still showing notable improvements day-by-day, already possesses an undeniably impressive combination of “feel” and individual creativity. If also factoring in his physical profile and skill levels for his age, it’s tempting to immediately come away with very high expectations. The thing is, LaMelo muddies things up quite well: he has an established history of questionable decision-making, spotty effort-levels, and has showcased especially peculiar mechanics. Given this enormously-sized mixed bag, pinpointing where he’ll land pick-wise appears to be a bit of a silly exercise: he could be selected virtually anywhere in the lottery, depending on the amount of risk (and ball-dominance) teams are willing to submit. For any organization ready to assume that risk–especially if looking to push the pace and properly utilize his natural talents for distribution–LaMelo should certainly be of strong consideration, regardless of their draft position.