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Third, the Conservatives are invested in a strategy of both creating that space and of priming voters on the importance of experience. So, Mulcair is not alone in trying to maintain the political conditions for his own success.

Finally, voters’ preferences are closely linked to their expectations about parties’ chances, as well as others’ preferences. The NDP win in Alberta and the resurgence of the party in Atlantic Canada and Quebec can increase support for the party elsewhere.

To be sure, the odds of an NDP majority are still slim, not least because the Conservative vote is so much more efficient (which is just to say they get more seats for each percentage point of votes they win). But this is not the only scenario under which Mulcair can take power.

Assume for a moment that Mulcair finishes first in the seat count, but does not obtain a majority. In this case, he can make a popular appeal that he ought to be given the chance to govern. While the Conservatives can formally resist this and attempt a Throne speech, Stephen Harper will likely prefer to head for the exits. Here, Mulcair’s path to power is clear.

But what if he finishes second but not far behind Harper, and the Liberals finish in a more distant third? (This is, right now, a highly likely scenario, with good forecasting models suggesting a three party seat count in the neighbourhood of 130 Conservative, 115 NDP, 90 Liberal, and three to other parties).

For Harper to hold government in this scenario, he would likely appeal to the distaste of some Canadians for coalitions; he would emphasize the times his opponents have forsworn coalitions; and he would appeal to the popular misunderstanding that the party with the most seats is always the party that governs. Provided he can count on opposition confusion or public opposition to a coalition long enough to pass a Throne Speech, he would have clear sailing for at least a year.