The bedroom tax was introduced on 1 April 2013 and saw housing benefit entitlements cut for social housing residents deemed to be underoccupying their homes.

In preparation for the bedroom tax we took on more staff and reallocated our resources to focus on helping those affected by it. We were as well prepared, if not better, than many other social housing providers. Our staff knew customers would struggle and suspected the government's prediction that it would free up larger properties for families on the waiting list was flawed, but we wanted to do our best to make the idea work.

The first 100 days

So far, of the 460 households with spare bedrooms affected by the bedroom tax, we have only been able to move just over 40 residents to smaller houses. This includes the 18 months spent preparing for the policy's arrival. Nearly a quarter of those affected are disabled and have had expensive adaptations to make the home they are now under-occupying suitable – many more have more minor adaptations. Can it really make sense to move them to a home which would need further adaptations at more cost, and then remove the adaptations in the home they left behind?

After concerns were raised about the financial impact the bedroom tax would have on tenants, the government topped up the discretionary housing payment fund – a crisis fund controlled by local councils for residents struggling with their housing costs. Yet we found only 9% of those affected by the bedroom tax have been successful in applying for discretionary housing payments – and these payments are only a stop-gap solution. Some residents cannot even reapply for financial help if they fail to prove they are making savings or working more hours.

The cash-strapped tenants who agree to move, who feel they have no alternative but to downsize when a smaller property becomes available, know the choice of a new home will be limited. They face hauling young children out of schools and away from their communities. That's assuming we can somehow find a supply of two-bedroom homes where there aren't any.

Our housing register is run by Central Bedfordshire council and we are part of the county-wide choice-based lettings partnership which has seen a huge rise in bids on two-bedroom homes – but only 26 of our two-bedroom homes became available during April and May. Bids on three-bedroom homes have fallen to the extent we have three-bed homes we are now struggling to fill.

This is not unique to Bedfordshire. We know from our sister association South Northants Homes that tenants cannot downsize there because the properties are not available. It has 195 people affected by the bedroom tax, 172 of those needed a one-bedroom home, but only 10 are likely to become available.

Families who cannot get a home through social landlords are forced into the more expensive and less secure private rented sector. We found the cost of renting privately in the areas we provide housing to be substantially higher for tenants and taxpayers alike. In the social housing sector, the average amount of housing benefit paid to a claimant is £98.94 a week. If the claimant moves into the private rented sector, the average there is £126.92, but private rents are higher than this and private tenants are left with an average rent shortfall of £22.66 a week.

Let's not lose sight of the fact that this is about real people, with real fears about growing debt and upheaval – and it is also about us as a business. Rent arrears built up by residents affected by the bedroom tax have risen by £7,777 in 12 weeks – an increase of 9%, and the overall number of affected tenants who have fallen behind on their rent has risen from 187 to 279 – a whopping 49%. Arrears have risen steadily since April and we expect this to continue.

We were concerned about the bedroom tax since it was first announced and in the first 100 days our fears were confirmed. The story our figures show doesn't look like it will have a happy ending for us, for our tenants, or even for the government.

Debbie Stuart is assistant director of housing and support at Aragon Housing Association. Read the full report on the first 100 days of the bedroom tax here

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