Only a month ago, a recession looked inevitable. Job cuts were picking up speed, and stock prices were falling. The Federal Reserve was cutting its benchmark interest rate rapidly, in an effort to keep the downturn from snowballing. But the notion that the economy could avoid a recession altogether seemed fanciful.

It looks less fanciful today. The economic news hasn’t exactly been sunny lately, but there also haven’t been any nasty new surprises. If anything, the economy seems to have stabilized. The pace of layoffs has eased a bit, stocks have risen and the Fed has signaled that the rate cuts are over for now.

And now the economy is being flooded with cash, courtesy of the federal government, and that will surely lift consumer spending in the months ahead. Two weeks ago, the Treasury Department began distributing the tax rebates from the recent $168 billion stimulus package. The effects of the Fed’s interest rate cuts, meanwhile, are still washing over the economy.

So you can make an argument that the economy has survived its period of maximum danger. On Intrade, the Web site where contracts tied to real world events are bought and sold, traders now think there is only a 29 percent chance the economy will shrink for two straight quarters this year. In mid-April, they put the odds at 70 percent. Edward Lazear, an economic adviser to President Bush, gave an upbeat interview to The Wall Street Journal last week in which he suggested a recession was now unlikely.