Budgets have consequences.

Budgets have consequences.

We already knew that Paul Ryan was coolly received by 18 percent of the most right-wing Republicans in the country. So if they couldn't get 100 percent of their most reliable wingnuts, what did that portend for their chances with seniors who aren't batshit crazy?

Now we know.



Even before Mitt Romney named Paul Ryan to the ticket, our Battleground polling results indicated an erosion of support for Republicans, largely based on Paul Ryan’s plans for Medicare and entitlements. The advantage Republicans held among seniors in 2010 has been completely decimated. Across these Republican districts, incumbents now hold just a two-point lead with voters over age 64—a group Republicans won by 18 points in 2010. Not surprisingly, the leading factor in this shift away from the GOP is Paul Ryan’s war on Medicare. By a decisive six-point margin, voters in these districts now say they trust Democrats more than Republicans when it comes to Medicare. Among voters in the 27 most competitive Republican battleground seats, Democrats now hold an 11-point advantage on Medicare.

The GOP's best hope to weather their votes for the Ryan budget was to make sure that Paul Ryan remained an obscure personality. Democrats could scream all they wanted about Politician X's "vote for the Ryan budget," but if the response was "Ryan who?", they'd be in the clear.

Mitt Romney destroyed that hope. Everyone knows, or will soon know, who Paul Ryan is. That's why Republicans panicked at first hearing the news about Ryan, and why they continue to have reason to panic today.