The Rachel Barnhart for Congress campaign released the findings of an internal poll today showing the Democratic Primary for the NY 25th special election to be wide open. The poll was conducted before Barnhart officially launched her campaign.

The poll, conducted by Gravis Marketing in consultation with Advanced Idea Data Science Consulting, shows a competitive Democratic Primary: Joseph Morelle 35.5%, Barnhart 20.5%, McFadden 9.5% and Wilt 6.5%. Notably, 28% of the electorate is undecided and nearly two in three voters are voting for a candidate other than Morelle.

In releasing the poll, Barnhart commented on the strong reception she has felt since announcing her candidacy. “I have been overwhelmed by the support I am seeing throughout our community for our campaign,” said Barnhart. “Every day, I am knocking on doors and listen to what our voters want in their next member of Congress. I hear the same thing, over and over: we need a strong advocate who has experience standing up to those in power threatening our values and community. This poll shows that contrary to conventional wisdom, voters know that spending 27 years in the backslapping, dysfunctional donor-fueled Albany machine does not prepare you to be the fighter we need in Congress. I look forward to continuing my campaign, spreading my message, and listening to the voters over the coming weeks.”

About the poll : Advanced Idea Data Science Consulting has a history of precision weighting and prediction over past elections. In 2017, they predicted the turnout for the Rochester mayoral primary to within .2%, predicted 4 of 5 voters in that race, and used the same algorithms to analyze this poll. Gravis conducted the survey over the phone of 599 Democratic voters on April 17 and April 18. Advanced Idea Data Science weighted 410 likely voters in the primary who took the poll. These are known as “prime voters,” based on their voting history. The poll has a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

Poll questions in order:

1. “Do you plan to vote in the June 26 Democratic Congressional Primary?”

Press 1 for yes

Press 2 for no (poll ends)

2. “If a primary was held today to choose the Democratic candidate to succeed Louise Slaughter, which candidate would you prefer?”

Press 1 for Rachel Barnhart

Press 2 for Joseph Morelle

Press 3 for Adam McFadden

Press 4 for Robin Wilt

Press 5 if you are Undecided

Of those called, 6,574 did not answer, 3013 did not complete, 599 completed. Of the respondents, 380 were female, 191 male, 56 black, 5 Asian, 303 white, 161 blank. (These are raw numbers, not weighted.)