Mar 21, 2019

The four-year-old war in Yemen is an expensive albatross for Saudi Arabia. The kingdom is bogged down in a quagmire that is damaging the country’s reputation. The Houthi rebels show little sign of wanting an end to the conflict no matter how much misery it brings to the Yemeni people. The war is alienating the US Congress and media from the Saudi leadership, with potentially dangerous consequences for the long-term future of US-Saudi relations.

Saudi Arabia intervened in the conflict between the elected administration of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi and the Houthis four years ago this month. The battle lines have changed little in the last three years, after the Saudi-led coalition gained control of most of South Yemen. Despite a huge advantage in the air and billions spent on its military, the Saudis and their allies have been unable to dislodge the rebels from their strongholds in the north or advance to Sanaa. The Royal Saudi Air Force is accused of frequent bombings of civilian targets and war crimes.

In parts of the south, the Saudis have taken fairly strong control, like in al-Mahra province along the Omani border, where they are rumored to be considering building an oil pipeline to the Indian Ocean. They have brought in Wahhabi clerics. In other areas, like Aden, the Saudis have taken a back seat to Abu Dhabi, which has built a network of local militias more loyal to the emirate than to Hadi.

Hadi is in poor health and spends most of his time in Riyadh. He was never very popular in the country and is widely seen as ineffectual. The Hadi government exercises little influence on the ground in the areas under the coalition’s control.

Last December, the United Nations negotiated an agreement in Stockholm to try to begin a process to de-escalate the war, beginning with a cease-fire in the northern port of Hodeidah. The port is the main entrance for 70% of the food and medicine for the country. According to the UN, 80% of Yemen’s 24 million people need humanitarian assistance and 10 million are close to starvation. Under the Stockholm agreement, a cease-fire in Hodeidah was to lead to the Houthis' withdrawal from the port. It was vague about who would take charge. The UN is still pressing for a withdrawal, starting with two smaller ports nearby.