OTTAWA—One way to look at the history of the New Democratic Party is to see it as a movement in search of a way forward: forever groping for the best path to power, riven by the competing forces of ideological purity and pragmatism.

In the wake of more than a half-century of electoral defeats, its fortunes measured in an oscillating tally of opposition seats, the NDP frequently finds itself at a crossroads marked with the question “What do we do now?”

And here they are again.

The race to replace Thomas Mulcair as leader is finally heating up. But as candidates gather endorsements, money and policy ideas, the party is also surveying the wreckage of the 2015 election.

Jack Layton — le bon Jack, credited with widening the NDP base and spearheading the party’s elusive Quebec breakthrough — died at the zenith of the party’s success. He left Stornoway, the official Opposition leader’s residence, to Mulcair. Then, in 2015, the party missed the only real shot it has ever had at forming government in Ottawa.

Where do you go from there? Whom do you choose as leader? And at a time when populist angst is buffeting many western democracies, what strategy is best for Canada’s party of the left?

The questions lead to a debate so well worn — or worn out — that its mere mention makes party members bristle.

Should the NDP run for power as a generally progressive, trust-us-we’re-not-socialist party? Or is it the country’s “conscience,” the political group that espouses social democratic principles — tax the rich, good jobs for all, affordable education and all that — even if it never gets elected?

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Olivia Chow, for one, is tired of the whole argument.

“You can absolutely do both,” said the former MP and Toronto mayoral candidate — and Layton’s widow — in a recent interview.

“New Democrats have always been fairly clear about where they stand on key issues, on the importance of social justice, on democracy. No one would accuse Jack Layton of being not true to the roots of the NDP, but he was also semi-successful in increasing the seats in the House of Commons.”

At the same time, Layton’s tenure as leader is often seen as a period in which the NDP professionalized its operations and, at least in appearance, became more moderate in a bid to appeal to more Canadians.

Queen’s University historian Christo Aivalis points out that Layton supported a push to alter the preamble of the party’s constitution. In 2013, when Mulcair was leader, the party voted to remove provisions that promoted social ownership of resources and an end to poverty.

The changes can be seen as a precursor to the type of campaign the party ran under Mulcair in 2015, which Aivalis described as “timid.” Many felt the NDP was too cautious with its push to appear fiscally responsible, allowing Justin Trudeau to pluck promises from the New Democrats’ playbook — such as electoral reform and marijuana legalization — while pledging to go into deficit to invest billions of dollars in infrastructure projects.

As the analysis goes, Trudeau “outflanked” Mulcair on the left, and in the process made it more palatable for NDP voters to jump ship to the Liberals in their desperation to get the Conservatives out of office.

“It’s been apocalyptic for the NDP’s fortunes to move toward the centre,” said Avi Lewis, who along with his wife, activist and author Naomi Klein, dropped a bomb during the election campaign with the release of the Leap Manifesto, a list of demands to purge the country’s reliance on fossil fuels, protect the environment and create jobs.

“It’s not just consigning itself to electoral failure; it’s consigning itself to historical irrelevance,” Lewis said.

Chow has another take on the 2015 defeat. Partway through the campaign, a heated debate emerged about whether women should be able to take the oath of citizenship while wearing a niqab. Mulcair came out forcefully against a proposed niqab ban, and Chow said as a result the party’s support took a hit in Quebec, where many progressives also have strong feelings about secular public life.

When the NDP’s numbers started dropping in the polls, it encouraged voters to flock to the Liberals, who from then on appeared more likely to be able to beat Stephen Harper, Chow said.

“The NDP with Tom was trapped. It was a no-win situation,” she said.

Either way, many in the party feel that the push for moderation is behind them. There is a sense that Trudeau’s left flank has become vulnerable to a more avowedly progressive NDP. The Liberal government’s approval of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, which runs from Alberta to the B.C. coast, and its decision to break a promise to change the electoral system may offer openings for the NDP.

“You’re not going to see any candidate in this NDP leadership (race) get out-leftied by the Liberals. It’s just not going to happen,” said Rick Smith, executive director of the Broadbent Institute.

NDP president Marit Stiles said, “If I learned anything from the last election, it’s that we need to be bold and innovative and take a few risks.”

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Aivalis argued that the fervour over trade deals and the loss of manufacturing jobs that many say helped carry Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency could offer fertile ground for the NDP as well — not to mention the disdain for people in power.

“Populism isn’t just for the right. It can be for the left,” he said.

And if you want to find an example, he said, just look to the south.

“Everybody wants to be the Bernie,” said Lewis. “It’s like #BeTheBern.”

He was referring to Bernie Sanders, the septuagenarian Vermont senator who shocked what Lewis called the “punditocracy” when he made a strong push to win the Democratic party nomination for president last year. Some in the NDP feel that yawning income inequality, a sense of betrayal that the prime minister isn’t as progressive as he let on, and the perception of simmering anger about an out-of-touch national elite could combine to offer the party a chance to spark up Sanders-style enthusiasm in the Canadian electorate.

The pitch, as Lewis describes it, goes like this: decades of “neo-liberal” policies such as free trade and corporate tax cuts have given big companies gargantuan profits while governments have slashed social programs even as well-paying jobs disappear.

Throw in a dash of media-bashing — “People and movements and candidates on the left do not get fairly represented, as a matter of course,” Lewis said — and you’re on your way to a populism of the left.

Smith also sees economic conditions in Canada similar to those that may have given rise to populism in the U.S. Economic inequality has grown in the past two decades, and there are also people in Canada who feel “disenfranchised,” he said. “It behooves the left to acknowledge that people aren’t crazy for feeling this way.”

He added that left-leaning parties of the NDP’s ilk in Spain, Portugal and elsewhere have been elected with appeals to address inequality.

But in order to convince Canadians that the left has the best answers for their economic malaise, it would have to compete with the populism of the right. Lewis said the focus must be on inequality, precarious jobs and fears of declining opportunities — and the argument that alternating Liberal and Conservative governments have failed for years to address these issues.

“You can coat it in whatever working-class rhetoric you want, but the politics of austerity are at war with working people, and that’s the abject failure of right-wing populism that the left isn’t pointing out right now,” he said.

“The left has a huge opportunity for a populist vision that appeals to the same insecurity.”

This is already popping up in the leadership campaign. Peter Julian, the British Columbia MP who was first to enter the race, has promised free university tuition and wants to stop major oilsands pipeline development. Rhetoric from Charlie Angus and Niki Ashton has taken an anti-elitist flavour, and Guy Caron is leaning on his economist’s pedigree to place income inequality at the centre of his campaign.

For Lewis, the problem is that the country’s only NDP government is in Alberta, where it is backing the construction of oil pipelines. That creates a schism with the Leap Manifesto crowd and NDP supporters in B.C.

Further divisions could emerge if Jagmeet Singh, an Ontario legislator from Brampton who wears bespoke suits and is a practising Sikh, jumps into the leadership contest. One NDP operative speaking on condition of anonymity said some in the party question how Singh would be received in predominantly white rural ridings, as well as in Quebec, where proposals to ban religious symbols in public life have been hotly debated in recent years.

Whatever happens, Stiles, the party president, said the next leader will have to find a way to “connect with a broader base of Canadians.”

The only question is which road will get them there.

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