(CNN) It used to be said that "all politics is local." That's not really the case anymore.

Voters may be casting ballots for politicians to state government, but their feelings about President Donald Trump will be paramount. That will be on full display in Tuesday's elections in Kentucky Mississippi and Virginia.

Kentucky's Republican Gov. Matt Bevin would likely be a sitting duck if Tuesday's gubernatorial election were about him. His job approval ratings have continuously been below his disapproval ratings. Even with a late rally in his approval ratings, his net approval (approval - disapproval) rating is hovering around -10 points.

Yet, Bevin has overcome an early deficit against Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear (whose father was governor). In an average of nonpartisan polls, Bevin actually runs slightly ahead of Beshear, though the race is within the margin of error.

If Bevin does pull out the win, it will be because of Trump. The President won the state by about 30 points in 2016. His net approval rating is about +15 points in Kentucky in an average of recent polls.

Read More