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1. Jarred Kelenic, CF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 40/55 50/60 50 55 65+

Background: The sixth overall pick last June, Kelenic was promptly shipped to the west coast as part of the mega-deal involving future Hall of Famer Robinson Cano and lights out reliever Edwin Diaz. Kelenic, a 6-foot-1, 196-pound athlete from Waukesha, Wisconsin, signed a below-slot deal worth $4.5 million with New York. The Cheesehead spent the majority of his debut in the advanced rookie league, slugging a healthy .253/.350/.431 with eight doubles, four triples, and five homeruns; he also swiped 11 bags in 12 total tries. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 7% and 24%, respectively.

Analysis: A twitchy hitter that already shows surprising power to the opposite field. Kelenic showed a well-rounded approach at the plate during his debut: above-average patience, hit tool, and power while flashing plus speed and matching instincts on the base paths and running down balls in center field. He shows a short compact swing with impressive bat speed. Kelenic has the loud, impactful tools to make a splash at the big league level in the coming years. There’s some Christian Yelich-type potential brewing here.

Ceiling: 4.5- to 5.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021/2022

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2. Justus Sheffield, LHP

FB SL CH Control Overall 65 70 50 45/50 65

Background: The first big move in General Manager Jerry Dipoto’s master plan to “re-imagine” the franchise’s big league roster. Seattle sent dominant, though fragile, southpaw James Paxton to the Yankees for a three-player package headlined by Sheffield. The rotund lefty, who was acquired along with Dom Thompson-Williams and Erik Swanson, has now been involved in two major trades; the first being the deal that shipped him from Cleveland to New York as part of the Andrew Miller swap a few years back. Sheffield, who’s grown a couple inches in the past few years, made stops as three different levels in 2018: after starting the year out in dominant fashion in Class AA, the front office bumped the former first rounder up to the International League before pushing him up to New York for a brief three-game cameo. Sheffield finished the year with 25 minor league appearances, five coming out of the bullpen, throwing 116.0 innings with 123 strikeouts and 50 walks with a 2.48 ERA. He tossed another 2.2 big league innings, handing out three walks without fanning a hitter.

Analysis: Far from imposing, the 6-foot southpaw has a thick, strong lower half that helps him generate an explosive fastball. His heater, which touched as high as 98 mph during one of his late-season relief outings, remains a plus offering out of the rotation – especially from a left-hander. His slider is – simply – one of the best ones in the minor leagues. It shows hard, 10-to-3 tilt that causes left-handed hitters to give up on it. His changeup, shows a little bit of fade and grades out as average.

Since 2006, here’s a list of 22-year-old pitchers that posted a strikeout percentage between 22% and 25% in the International League (min. 75 IP): Carlos Carrasco, Luis Severino, Lucas Giolito, Chance Adams, and – of course – Justus Sheffield. It’s a strong collection of arms, with the top two developing into legitimate aces.

Let’s continue: Among the aforementioned group, here’s a trimmed down list of those pitchers that walked more than 9% of the hitters they faced – Giolito, Adams, and Sheffield. That’s far less impressive.

The lone knock on Sheffield: his control can waiver at times. He has the arsenal – two plus pitches and an average third offering – to develop into a #2/#3 type arm. But his control/command needs to take a step forward.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2018

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3. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 60 55 55+ 55 45 60

Background: Undeterred by the organization’s failure to lure two-way star Shoehi Ohtani to Seattle, General Manager Jerry Dipoto signed the biggest amateur free agent on the market this season, agreeing to a complex contract with the Japanese ace southpaw. The deal, according to ESPN, could range between three and seven years and can net the 6-foot, 194-pound hurler anywhere between $56 million and $109 million. Kikuchi, has spent the past eight seasons working out of the Saitama Seibu Lions’ rotation, posting a solid 925-to-381 strikeout-to-walk ratio in to go along with a 2.81 ERA in 1,035.1 career innings. The slight-framed left-hander emerged as one of Japan’s top arms after posting a stellar 1.92 ERA as a 22-year-old in 2013. His numbers took a noticeable step backward the following year as he battled control/command issues. But the Hanamaki Higashi High School product has been particularly effective over his past two seasons: in 351.1 innings of work, Kikuchi struck out 370 and walked just 94 to go along with a 30-10 win-loss record.

Analysis: Kikuchi shows an impressive four-pitch mix: a low- to mid-90s fastball that can touch 96 mph on occasion, an above-average to plus-mid 80s slider that’s lethal against left-handed hitters and can resemble a traditional cutter at times, an above-average upper 70s curveball, and a changeup as well. (Note: I didn’t personally see a changeup from him.) Kikuchi also has a noticeable delay during his leg kick from the wind up which creates some timing issues/deception for the hitters. With respect to pitchers that recently left the Japanese Pacific League and head stateside, consider how their final seasons in the JPPL stack up:

Player Age IP K/9 BB/9 Yusei Kikuchi 27 163.2 8.4 2.5 Daisuke Matsuzaka 25 186.1 9.7 1.6 Masahiro Tanaka 24 212.0 7.8 1.4 Yu Darvish 24 232.0 10.7 1.4

Kikuchi battled some control issues at various points in his career, though they seem to be in the rearview mirror at this point. But I think the control/command regresses some as he moves stateside, settling in around 3.6 walks per nine innings. He’ll likely average around 7.8 to 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings as well. The arsenal suggests a ceiling as high as a strong #2, but – ultimately – the control/command limits him towards a #3/#4-type role in a big league rotation.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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4. Justin Dunn, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 60 N/A 55/60 45/50 45/50 60+

Background: With a plethora of dominating big league starting pitching already in place, new Mets’ General Manager – and former player agent – Brodie Van Wagenen shipped off Dunn, the club’s first round pick in 2016, center fielder Jarred Kelenic, the sixth overall pick last June, right-hander Gerson Bautista, and veteran outfielder Jay Bruce for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. Dunn, a lean 6-foot-2, 185-pound right-hander out of Boston College, showed important – and huge – development strides during his third professional season. Splitting time between the Florida State and Eastern Leagues, the former 19th overall pick tallied a career high 135.1 innings of work, fanning 156 against 52 walks to go along with a respectable 3.59 ERA. For his career, Dunn is averaging 9.2 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings with a 3.87 ERA.

Analysis: Dunn first popped up on my radar following his sophomore season at Boston College. Working in relief for the Cotuit Kettleers in the legendary Cape Cod League, Dunn’s fastball was an average offering as it hovered in the 91- to 92-mph range. Fast forward a couple years and his heater’s gained noticeable velocity, going from average to plus. It now sits in the 93- to 95-mph range, peaking as high as 96 in the opening innings. He’ll complement the offering with a wipeout mid-80s slider, showing late tilt and it flashes plus. The former Golden Eagle will also mix in a curveball and a hard – likely too hard – change that touched 90 mph. The most impressive part of Dunn’s transformation over the past couple of seasons is how easy his velocity comes now; it’s almost effortless. Whereas in the past it looked like he was maxing out to touch the low 90s. Dunn has the makings of a nice mid-rotation caliber starting pitcher with a little bit more in the tank if his control/command ticks up a notch or two in the coming years. With respect to his work in Class AA last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 22-year-old pitchers to fan 27% to 29% of the hitters they squared off against in the Eastern League (min. 75 IP): Blue Jays ace Marcus Stroman and – of course – Seattle’s newest prospect Justin Dunn. Stroman, by the way, showed significantly more control/command during his stint in the Eastern League.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Low toModerate

MLB ETA: 2019

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5. Logan Gilbert, RHP

FB CB SL CH Control Overall 60/65 50 N/A 55/60 50 60

Background: The Hatters of Stetson University have graduated a pair of bonafide aces to the big leagues in recent years: Corey Kluber, who morphed from a non-descript Quadruple-A type pitcher, into a multiple Cy Young Award winning hurler, and Jacob deGrom, who’s coming off of one of the most dominant pitching performances in recent memory (217.0 IP, 269 strikeouts, just 46 free passes, and a miniscule, barely-there, league-leading 1.70 ERA). But despite the dynamic duo, no Stetson hurler has been drafted before the third round heading into last season. Until, that is, Gilbert heard his name called with the 14th overall selection. The massive, 6-foot-6, 225-pound budding ace capped off a dynamite three-year career for the Atlantic Sun Conference school. In a career best 16 starts for Head Coach Steve Trimper, the young right-hander led the nation in strikeouts (163) while issuing just 25 free passes – one fewer walk than the previous season, despite throwing 23.0 innings. After coming to terms with the West Coast club on a $3.8 million pact, the Florida native failed to make his professional debut courtesy of mononucleosis.

Analysis: Jerry Dipoto-led clubs have become notorious for their failures in the June draft. During four draft classes with the Angels, the only notable picks were Sean Newcomb, backend reliever Keynan Middleton, and useful infielder David Fletcher. And his first two draft classes with the Mariners were hardly better: Kyle Lewis, the club’s first round pick in 2016, has struggled to adapt to professional pitching and Evan White, the 17th overall pick two years ago, isn’t offering up the type of longball pop associated with the first base position. But Dipoto & Co. hit a homerun with the selection of Gilbert in the middle of the first round last June. Here’s what I wrote about the hard-throwing right-hander heading prior to the draft:

“Oh. Hell. Just for fun. Let’s take a look at how Gilbert’s production during his final campaign stacks up against the school’s most famous alumni. Consider the following:

Player Age IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 Logan Gilbert 21 93 12.97 1.94 0.68 Corey Kluber 21 114 9.24 2.84 0.55 Jacob deGrom 22 82 6.12 1.75 0.55

Obviously, Gilbert’s highly – highly – unlikely to approach the status of Kluber and deGrom, regardless of how the numbers look. There are plenty of variables like, say, the fact that deGrom tossed all of one inning the year before getting drafted. So let’s see how Gilbert’s numbers stack up with some more recent peers. Consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2017, here’s the list of Atlantic Sun Conference pitchers to average at least 11 strikeouts per nine innings (min. 75 IP): None.

So let’s expand it a bit. Consider the following:

Between 2011 and 2017, here’s the list of Division I pitchers to average at least 11.5 strikeouts and fewer than 2.1 walks per nine innings (min. 75 IP): Kyle Freeland, Luke Gillingham, Danny Hultzen, Casey Mise, David Peterson, and Trevor Stephan.

For those counting at home there are three first round picks (Freeland, Hultzen, and Peterson) and another one who would eventually become the top pick last June in Mize, and a third round selection (Stephan), and a late rounder in Gillingham. Gilbert, like Freeland, has the makings of a solid mid-rotation caliber arm, capable of chewing up 200+ innings with a near 3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s very likely going to move through the minors quicker than expected.”

Prior to succumbing to mononucleosis, Gilbert showed a standard four-pitch repertoire: a plus-fastball, an above-average changeup, an average curveball, and a slider (the latter I did not see during game play). Gilbert’s fastball has the potential to jump up a tick once he gets to the pros. And his changeup has the potential to become a swing-and-miss offering.

Ceiling: 3.0- to 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

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6. Julio Rodriguez, RF

Hit Power SB Field Overall 45/55 55 55 N/A 55

Background: The club’s biggest signing on the international market two years ago, Rodriguez signed with Seattle for a hefty $1.75 million. Fast forward a year and the teenage outfielder is coming off a dominating run in the Dominican Summer League; one in which earned him the league’s MVP Award. Born in Loma de Cabrera, Dominican Republic, the then-17-year-old slugged a robust .315/.404/.525 with 13 doubles, nine triples, and five homeruns. He also went a perfect 10-for-10 in the stolen base department as well. Rodriguez’s overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by a whopping 61%, the eighth best showing.

Analysis: There’s hitter-friendly environments. And there’s the Dominican Summer League: home to some loony offensive outbursts. Take for example St. Louis hotshot prospect Malcolm Nunez, who posted a Ruthian 238 wRC+ (and somehow didn’t win the DSL MVP Award). So Rodriguez’s numbers have to be examined with a level of skepticism.

Between 2006 and 2015, there was only one 17-year-old hitter that met the following criteria in the Dominican Summer League (min. 175 PA): 150 and 170 wRC+, at least a 10% walk rate, and a sub-17% walk rate, and an Isolated Power of at least .190. That hitter: big league veteran Abraham Almonte.

Rodriguez’s toolkit provides a strong foundation: above-average hit tool with room to grow, solid average plate discipline, and 20/20 potential.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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7. Evan White, 1B

Hit Power SB Field Overall 55/60 50 35 55 50

Background: Taken between a pair of recognizable college arms in the first round, White, who was sandwiched between South Carolina’s Clarke Schmidt and Florida’s Alex Faedo with the 17th overall pick, made the transition from an abbreviated stint in short-season ball all the way to High Class A with aplomb last season. The Columbus, Ohio, native – Go Buckeyes! – batted a respectable .303/.375/.458 with 27 doubles, seven triples, and 11 homeruns. The deceptively quick White also snagged four bags as well. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the California League average by 27%, the eighth best total in the west coast High Class A league.

Analysis: A very typical Jerry Dipoto acquisition as the veteran General Manager places an unreasonably high value on on-field production at the cost of future projection. In doing so, Dipoto broke one of the Draft’s Golden Rules: never burn a first round selection on a first baseman. Over the past nine draft classes (2010-2018), only 12 first basemen have been selected in the opening round of the June draft – a span of 412 total picks. White’s not the prototypical power-hitting first baseman either; putting added pressure on the hit tool to carry him up to the big leagues. The lefty-swinging former Wildcat slugged just 15 homeruns over his final 107 college games and he’s added just 14 more through his first 138 professional contests. The bat-to-ball skill is above-average, potentially jumping up to the plus range if he continues to have success against left-handed pitching. The important question to ask, though, is can the power develop into anything other than fringy for his position? With all the advancements in analytics – launch angle, exit velocity, etc… – it’s becoming increasing more difficult to project a hitter’s future pop. But White’s batted ball profile last season – 31.4% FB, 48.6% GB, and 19.9% LD – doesn’t offer up a whole lot of hope. Consider the following:

Since 2007, there have been 51 instances in which a 22-year-old California League hitter posted a groundball rate between 46% and 50% (min. 300 PA). Only four of those 51 would go on to develop any tangible power at the big league level: Chad Pinder, Ryon Healy, Chris Taylor, and Keon Broxton.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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8. Cal Raleigh, C

Hit Power SB Field Overall 50 50 20 45 50

Background: Raleighmade an immediate impact in the middle of Florida State’s lineup during his freshman season, hitting a robust .301/.412/.511 with 27 extra-base hits, looking the part of a potential first round selection in the process. But the 6-foot-3, 215-pound backstop struggled excessively during his sophomore campaign – he hit a lowly .227/.330/.398 with 26 extra-base hits. Last season, though, Raleigh was able to recapture whatever offensive magic he displayed as a teenager en route to capping off his three-year collegiate career on a high note: in 62 games for FSU, he set career highs in average (.326), on-base percentage (.447), slugging percentage (.583), doubles (18), homeruns (13), and walk rate (18.0%). Seattle snagged Raleigh in the middle of the third round – 90th overall – and signed him to an above-slot deal worth $854,000. Raleigh, along with the club’s second round pick Josh Stowers, made the transition to the Northwest League with aplomb, hitting .288/.367/.534 with 10 doubles, one triple, and homeruns. He would also finish his debut season with a solid 29-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 167 plate appearances.

Analysis: Yet again, Dipoto & Co. seemingly hit a homerun in the early rounds of the draft. The saber-friendly backstop rebounded nicely after a disastrous sophomore campaign to establish himself as one of the premier collegiate backstops in last year’s draft class. Consider the following:

For his part, Raleigh was able to maintain his saber-friendly ways during his transition to pro ball as well, showcasing a better than average eye at the plate and surprising power from a premium defensive position. Raleigh will never be confused with Yadier Molina behind the dish, but there’s enough offensive potential to suggest a starting caliber backstop.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2021

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9. Shed Long, 2B

Hit Power SB Field Overall 45/50 45/50 50 60 45+

Background: A long time perennial favorite of mine as an underrated middle infielder. Long, who was unearthed by the Reds in the 12th round of the 2013 draft, struggled mightily as a 21-year-old in the Southern League in 2017. Following a late-season promotion up to Pensacola, Long batted a lowly .227/.319/.362 with just six doubles, two triples, and three homeruns in 42 games. Cincinnati pushed the underrated prospect back to Class AA and the entirety of 2018. And the results were…significantly improved. In 126 games with the Tortugas, the 5-foot-8, 184-pound second baseman batted .261/.353/.412 with 22 doubles, a career-high tying five triples, and 12 homeruns. He also swiped 19 bags in 25 total attempts. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus and Deserved Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by 20% and 7%, respectively. Seattle acquired Long from the Reds as part of the three-team swap that sent second round pick Josh Stowers to the Yankees.

Analysis: It would beeasy to slap the “bat-first” tag on Long. But he’s historically been one of the better defensive second baseman in the minor leagues, consistently saving several runs above the average. He shows a well-rounded approach at the plate, one lacking both a true standout tool or glaring red flag. With respect to his production last season, consider the following:

Between 2006 and 2016 only three 22-year-old hitters posted a 115 to 125 wRC+ total with a walk rate between 10% and 12% in the Southern League (min. 350 PA): Patrick Leonard, Xavier Paul, and Jai Miller – none of whom developed into anything tangible at the big league level.

Long’s offensive contributions may not be anything more than slightly below-average at the big league level, but his defense could push him toward respectable every day starter.

Ceiling: 1.5 to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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10. Erik Swanson, RHP

FB SL CH Control Overall 55 60 50 55 45+

Background: The second of three pieces acquired from the Yankees in the James Paxton deal this offseason. In terms of pure production, Swanson, a big 6-foot-3, 235-pound right-hander out of Iowa Western Community College, was one of the more effective minor league arms in 2018. In 22 starts and a pair of relief appearances, the former eighth round pick tossed a career-best 121.2 innings with an impressive 139-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio between his time with Staten Island, Trenton, and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Swanson finished his fifth professional season with an aggregate 2.66 ERA. For his career he’s averaging 8.9 strikeouts and just 2.2 walks per nine innings.

Analysis: A late-blooming prospect. Swanson was limited to fewer than 50 innings between his first two professional seasons. But the big righty’s made up for lost time over the past couple years as he’s blitzed his way from Low Class A up to the porch of the big leagues. Mainly a two-pitch pitcher, Swanson relies heavily on the above-average combination of his 93 mph fastball and a hard-tilting slider, which he’ll vary the break on. His fastball generates a lot of late swings-and-misses despite lacking elite velocity. He’ll also mix in an average-ish changeup. With respect to his production in the International League last season, consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s a list of 24-year-old pitchers that posted a strikeout percentage between 25.5% and 28.0% with a walk percentage below 6% in the International League (min. 50 IP): James Shields, Mark Melancon, Tommy Milone, Jonathan Aro, Jameson Taillon, and Erik Swanson.

For those counting at home: that’s two above-average big league starters (Shields and Taillon); one dominant reliever (Melancon); one league average starting pitcher (Milone); and an up-and-down arm (Aro). Swanson falls comfortably in the Milone-type category. Place former Mariners arm Nate Karns in the same category as well. Swanson’s big league production in 2019 could sneak up on some people.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.