By Max Musson:

These words from the parody of the popular song ‘Barbara Ann’ by the Beach Boys were first recorded by Vince Vance & The Valiants in 1980 in response to the ‘Iran hostage crisis’, but the words still resonate today as we inch ever closer to what seems like the inevitable military showdown between an aspirant nuclear Iran on one hand and the US/Israeli World Zionist axis on the other.

The former U.S. ambassador to Israel, Martin Indyk, was reported in Haaretz in September of last year to have forecast that at some time during 2013 the United States will go to war with Iran over its nuclear program.

Speaking during a panel discussion programme ‘Face the Nation’ on the CBS-TV, Indyk said: “I’m afraid that 2013 is going to be a year in which we’re going to have a military confrontation with Iran.

“There is still time, perhaps six months, even by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s own timetable, to try to see if a negotiated solution can be worked out.”

Indyk is currently the head of foreign policy at the Brookings Institute think tank. He went on,: “Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon,” but added that there is not a lot of time left until it does.

Earlier, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had said in US television interviews that by mid-2013, Iran would be 90 percent of the way towards having enough enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb. He urged the United States to spell out limits that Tehran must not cross or else face military action – something US President Barack Obama had at that time refused to do.

Netanyahu asserted that Iran poses an existential threat and would use a nuclear weapon to make good on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s past rhetorical threats to wipe Israel off the map.

“You have to place that red line before them now, before it’s too late,” Netanyahu told NBC’s “Meet the Press” program, saying that such a U.S. move could reduce the chances of having to attack Iran’s nuclear sites.

Since last September it has been revealed that during 2012 Netanyahu’s government spent 11 billion NIS (New Israeli Shekels), approximately $3 billion alone, researching and evaluating plans for an Israeli military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

In January of this year Netanyahu’s predecessor, Ehud Olmert quoted these spending figures and criticised the Netanyahu administration claiming they had “scared the world for a year and in the end didn’t do anything.”

He was referring to the prime minister’s efforts to use the threat of an Israeli military campaign to spur the West into action against Iran’s purported nuclear weapons program both by toughening sanctions and by wielding its own credible military threat.

So how serious is the current threat and how imminent is the threat of a unilateral military strike by Israel against Iran, and furthermore, what would be the implications for the West of such a strike?

Prior to September of last year all of the rhetoric emanating from the Israeli government had indicated a belief that Iran would acquire a nuclear capability that autumn and the expectation was of an Israeli military strike during the closing months of 2012. However, there was a revised assessment of Iran’s progress based upon the belief that their uranium enrichment programme had been slowed by the need to transfer the vital centrifuges from exposed sites to Iran’s underground Fordo nuclear facilities built beneath a mountain near the holy city of Qom.

Intelligence sources now predict that Iran will have enough enriched uranium to make a bomb by the middle of 2013 and furthermore, that they will have their entire nuclear facilities underground and therefore beyond the reach of a US/Israeli military strike before then. Logically therefore, one would expect a military strike to come at sometime over the next two months if it is to have any effect in preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear capability.

It is therefore sobering to realise that Israel has just this month concluded a deal to purchase a massive stockpile of military fuel from the United States.

A recent US Department of Defence press release stated: “The Government of Israel has requested a possible sale of 864,000,000 gallons of petroleum based products consisting of JP-8 aviation fuel, diesel fuel and unleaded gasoline… The estimated cost is $2.67 billion.”

The US provides some $3.1 billion in annual military aid to Israel, a large chunk of which must be used to purchase arms and supplies from the US government and vendors based in the US.

Also earlier this month the US Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee passed a resolution to support Israel if a conflict with Iran arises.

Resolution 65, was voted on by the Senate on Tuesday.

According to the US congressional website, the resolution states: “If the government of Israel is compelled to take military action in legitimate self-defence against Iran’s nuclear weapons programme, the United States government should stand with Israel and provide, in accordance with United States law and the constitutional responsibility of Congress to authorise the use of military force, diplomatic, military, and economic support to the government of Israel in its defence of its territory, people, and existence.”

It is sobering also to find that relations between Israel and Turkey, which were soured by the deaths of Turkish nationals aboard the relief flotilla of vessels heading to Gaza with humanitarian supplies in 2010.

Renewed relations between Turkey and Israel revive the possibility of Israel using airbases in Turkey and Turkish airspace to facilitate military strikes against Iran.

Furthermore, it is sobering to find that the Israeli Defence Force are currently conducting major military manoeuvres in the north of Israel, close to the Lebanese border and in preparation to repel possible cross border incursions by Hezbollah in retaliation for air strikes against their Iranian allies.

So there we have it:

– Israeli belief that Iran seeks to acquire nuclear weapons;

– Israeli belief that Iran will use those nuclear weapons against Israel;

– Israeli belief that Iran must at all costs be stopped from acquiring nuclear weapons capability;

– The belief that Iran will have a nuclear capability by June 2013 at the latest;

– The belief that Iran’s nuclear industry will be immune to bombing if the US/Israel do not strike quickly;

– $3 billion spent by Israel evaluating military options against Iran;

– The purchase and stockpiling of military fuel by Israel;

– The use of Turkish airspace and airbases facilitated by repaired Turkish/Israeli relations;

– A commitment by the US Senate to support Israel in an attack upon Iran; and

– Large scale military manoeuvres by the Israeli Defence Force.

Clearly, we should now regard the possibility of an Israeli air strike against Iran, supported by the Americans, as not just likely, but imminent.

Israel, as they say, presents a ‘clear and present danger’.

Should an air strike take place, it will cause stock markets around the world to go into a state of panic and stock prices will be likely to plummet temporarily at least. Furthermore, Oil supplies to the West are likely to be interrupted and the price of pump petrol is likely to rise significantly.

How long the crisis will last and how severe it will be will very much depend upon how prepared Iran are in their defences. A poorly prepared Iran might see the crisis subside in a matter of days if the Iranian government collapses in the aftermath of a strike and is quickly replaced by a new pro-Western government, however, a collapse of the Ahmadinejad government could also spark civil war in Iran, which could lead to a protracted disruption of oil supplies to the West.

Furthermore, a well-prepared Iran could see widespread retaliation against Israel and the US leading to a major conflict in the Middle East and again a protracted disruption of our oil supplies.

Clearly, it is time for Western nations to examine the cost of our continued and largely unquestioning support for Israel, especially at this time when our faltering economies have still not recovered from the after effects of the banking crisis.

In addition to the economic cost there is also the cost in terms of the antipathy that is created among Islamic nations for the West and the continual stream of Muslim refugees and economic migrants that arrive at our shores fleeing the poverty that the ongoing Middle East crisis exacerbates. Lastly, there is the constantly increasing danger that Arab countries desperate to gain military parity with Israel will eventually cause the crisis to escalate into nuclear war.

It is time for Western nations to rethink our approach to the Middle East and to begin putting our own interests first.

By Max Musson © 2013

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