MSA Special Notice

CME Arrival

Solar Activity:

*Event % probabilities:

Nov 12 - Nov 14

60% Chance for M Flares

30% Chance for X Flares

SWPC 3-Day Forecast







*24 hr Summary:.

Solar activity was high. Region 1890 (S11W22, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) once again produced an X1/2b flare (NOAA scale R3-strong) at 10/0514 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. The flare was also accompanied by a type-II radio sweep, estimated at 1012 km/s, a type-IV radio sweep, as well as a Tenflare of 360 sfu. Coronal dimming and post-eruption arcade were also visible with the flare, indicating a likely coronal mass ejection (CME). Analysis will be conducted to determine geoeffectiveness of the CME as soon as data is available in STEREO and Lasco C2/C3 imagery. Region 1890 remains the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk and maintained its delta magnetic configuration. The other regions on the disk were either stable or decaying. New Region 1895 (S16E71, Hsx/alpha) was numbered over night as it rotated onto the east limb.





*Geomagnetic Forecast:

Update coming soon with new info on the CME expected late on Nov. 12th



http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/forecast_discussion.txt

