Anticipated to grow to $1.8 billion by 2025, the global meningococcal vaccines market could see some big changes over the next decade. Pending successful late stage trials, GlaxoSmithKline’s forthcoming MenABCWY jab will “revolutionize” the sector by potentially shifting immunization strategies following its launch.

That’s the analysis by GlobalData, which expects the vaccine to debut in 2020, likely altering routine immunization schedules in the U.S. and European markets and possibly charging to a market-leading position, according to a new report. The vaccine, which the research firm’s Mirco Junker says is “effectively a co-formulation of GSK’s Menveo and Bexsero,” would be the first to protect against all major meningitis serogroups in the markets GlobalData examined.

MenABCWY “could reduce the shot burden for patients,” Junker said, and is expected to grow to $435 million in sales by 2025, according to the report. GlobalData concluded that the candidate could replace the currently recommended MenACWY vaccines in GSK’s Menveo and Sanofi Pasteur’s Menactra, making it possible that its success could come at Sanofi's expense.

Currently in Phase II, the MenABCWY vaccine is one reason the market research firm predicted earlier this month that GSK will overtake Sanofi in the meningococcal vaccines space by 2025. Bexsero growth will also help, the analysts said, pegging that vaccine’s sales at $570 million for that year.

Overall, the market is expected to grow from $1.1 billion last year to $1.8 billion in 2025, GlobalData has said, with GSK’s forthcoming vaccine and national immunization schedule changes driving the expansion.

In the meantime, though, GSK is relying on its marketed vaccines for sales gains to offset trouble elsewhere. Last year, former Novartis ($NVS) meningococcal shots Bexsero and Menveo pitched in £115 million ($167 million) and £160 million ($232 million) respectively toward that effort.

But Menactra dwarfed those figures in 2015, with its sales up 18.2% to €563 million ($639 million). Pfizer’s ($PFE) Trumenba, which protects against MenB like GSK’s Bexsero, was predicted to hit about $225 million in 2019 sales in early estimates.

- read the report

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