October 17, 2018 - Menendez Up 7 Points In New Jersey Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Incumbent Has Big Negative Favorability Rating

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Despite a big negative favorability rating, U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez, the Democratic incumbent, leads former pharmaceutical executive Bob Hugin, the Republican challenger, 51 - 44 percent among New Jersey likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.





Only 5 percent of likely voters remain undecided, but 10 percent of voters who do name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day.





Today's results compare to a 53 - 42 percent lead by Sen. Menendez in an October 3 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll.





Women and non-white voters remain the key to Menendez' support:

Women back the Democrat 56 - 38 percent. Men are divided with 51 percent for Hugin and 46 percent for Menendez;

The incumbent leads 63 - 28 percent among non-white voters. White voters go 52 percent for Hugin and 46 percent for Menendez;

Republicans back Hugin 96 - 2 percent, as Democrats go to Menendez 92 - 6 percent. Independent voters tip to Hugin 51 - 44 percent.

New Jersey likely voters give Menendez a big negative 36 - 52 percent favorability rating. Hugin gets a positive 39 - 30 percent favorability rating, with 28 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.





"Support from women remains key to Sen. Robert Menendez' standing in this race as his favorability rating is stuck deep underwater," said Mary Snow, polling analyst for the Quinnipiac University Poll.





"The question for Bob Hugin is: can he win over those voters who say they are undecided or are backing Menendez and indicate they may change their mind? It will come down to how he defines himself in these last few weeks before Election Day as nearly 30 percent of voters say they haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion of him."





From October 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 873 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points, including the design effect.





The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.





Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll





Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.





1. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Bob Hugin the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Robert Menendez the Democrat or more toward Bob Hugin the Republican?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Menendez 51% 2% 92% 44% 46% 56% 52% 37% Hugin 44 96 6 51 51 38 46 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 2 2 5 3 6 2 2 WHITE..... Non Men Wom Wht Wht Menendez 37% 54% 46% 63% Hugin 62 43 52 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 1 2 2 8 WHITE................... COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE Men Wom Men Wom Menendez 41% 61% 30% 43% Hugin 58 36 68 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 1 2 2 3 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Menendez 2% 2% 90% 93% 39% 49% Hugin 98 94 9 4 57 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA - 3 - 3 3 8 AREA............................. Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Menendez 72% 50% 47% 57% 33% Hugin 24 46 53 34 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 4 4 1 9 6

1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Menendez Hugin Mind made up 88% 87% 88% Might change 10 10 10 DK/NA 2 2 2

2. Is your opinion of Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 36% 6% 66% 24% 31% 39% 30% 29% Unfavorable 52 89 24 61 60 44 61 64 Hvn't hrd enough 7 5 7 10 4 10 5 6 REFUSED 5 - 4 5 4 6 3 2 WHITE..... Non Men Wom Wht Wht Favorable 24% 35% 30% 49% Unfavorable 72 54 62 30 Hvn't hrd enough 3 8 5 11 REFUSED 2 3 3 10 WHITE................... COLLEGE DEG NO COLLEGE Men Wom Men Wom Favorable 22% 38% 26% 31% Unfavorable 73 51 71 58 Hvn't hrd enough 3 7 2 9 REFUSED 2 4 1 2 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT.. INDEPENDENT Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Favorable 5% 6% 62% 69% 23% 26% Unfavorable 92 87 29 20 70 51 Hvn't hrd enough 3 7 5 8 5 15 REFUSED 1 - 5 3 3 8 AREA............................. Philly Urban SbUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 50% 33% 35% 36% 30% Unfavorable 36 56 63 41 59 Hvn't hrd enough 7 7 2 16 2 REFUSED 7 4 1 7 9

3. Is your opinion of Bob Hugin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?