Everyone have a good Thanksgiving holiday last week? All rested up and fattened? Excellent. It's likely that none of you noticed I didn't do my usual Power Rankings from Around the Web post last week. My in-laws were visiting us so I was a bit preoccupied, not to mention you all were preoccupied and wouldn't have seen it anyway.

So, 2011 is turning into a hell of a season for our beloved Chargers, isn't it? I couldn't tell you the last time the Chargers played this poorly and were ranked this low. Maybe 2003? 2005? We sure got used to being a top-12 team and perennial playoff contenders. The Chargers continue their tumble down the rankings, while the Raiders and Broncos are climbing. Who saw that coming?

In fact, it's that very question that led me to crunch the numbers and come up with a new chart: Most Surprising and Disappointing Teams. I took the Subjective Averages from Week 1 for all 32 teams and compared their Subjective Averages this week to see which teams are performing better and worse than they were expected leading into this season. You can find that chart after the jump.

In the meantime, let's take a look at some notable quotes this week and also how the various divisions stack up.

Notable Quotes

Fox Sports

So I picked the Chargers to win the Super Bowl. I was wrong.

Sports Illustrated

Under the heading of stuff you just can't make up, I'm sure there are a thousand lines that flood to mind when you think of the sideline bathroom break taken by Chargers kicker Nick Novak and the state of San Diego's down-the-toilet season, but I'm going to take the high road and resist them all. Or most of them.

ProFootballTalk

Cardinals (No. 26; 4-7): This team may not be as far away from contending as it appears. Chiefs (No. 22; 4-7): This team may not be as far away from contending as it appears. Chargers (No. 23; 4-7): This team may not be as far away from contending as it appears. Dolphins (No. 24; 3-8): This team may not be as far away from contending as it appears.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking AFC North 11.7353 NFC North 12.8235 AFC East 15.1176 NFC South 15.7059 NFC East 16.6324 AFC West 18.5588 AFC South 20.3824 NFC West 21.0441

Surprises

Like outlined above, this chart compares the Subjective Averages of each team from Week 1 and this week. I then took the teams with the 5 biggest differences on each end of the spectrum.

Team Week 1 Average Week 13 Average Difference SF 25.667 3.833 21.834 CIN 30.778 12.250 18.528 DEN 29.000 14.917 14.083 OAK 20.889 11.167 9.722 BUF 28.000 18.750 9.250

Disappointments

Team Week 1 Average Week 13 Average Difference IND 11.778 32.000 -20.222 SDG 7.000 21.167 -14.167 STL 17.667 31.000 -13.333 PHI 6.222 18.583 -12.361 TB 12.333 21.083 -8.750

Subjective Average

Subjective Packers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.000 Ravens 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 2.667 0.471 49ers 3 4 3 4 4 6 4 5 3 4 4 2 3.833 0.986 Saints 4 6 6 5 2 5 2 6 5 5 2 4 4.333 1.491 Patriots 6 2 7 2 6 4 6 2 6 2 6 6 4.583 1.935 Steelers 5 5 5 6 5 3 5 4 4 6 5 5 4.833 0.799 Texans 7 7 4 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6.750 0.829 Cowboys 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 13 8.583 1.382 Falcons 9 8 8 9 9 11 9 9 9 9 14 8 9.333 1.599 Bears 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 11 13 11 9 11 11.083 1.038 Raiders 10 10 10 13 10 9 12 10 12 13 13 12 11.167 1.404 Lions 11 11 13 10 12 12 14 12 14 10 10 10 11.583 1.441 Bengals 13 13 11 14 13 13 11 14 10 14 12 9 12.250 1.588 Giants 14 14 14 12 16 17 13 16 11 12 16 14 14.083 1.801 Broncos 16 15 15 15 14 14 15 13 16 15 15 16 14.917 0.862 Jets 15 16 16 16 15 15 16 15 15 16 11 15 15.083 1.320 Titans 17 17 17 17 17 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 16.917 0.276 Eagles 18 18 18 19 19 18 18 18 19 19 20 19 18.583 0.640 Bills 19 19 19 18 18 21 19 20 18 18 18 18 18.750 0.924 Buccaneers 20 23 21 21 21 20 22 21 24 21 19 20 21.083 1.320 Chargers 22 21 23 20 20 24 21 19 20 20 23 21 21.167 1.463 Seahawks 24 22 22 24 24 19 23 23 21 24 21 23 22.500 1.500 Dolphins 26 24 25 22 22 25 20 22 25 22 24 24 23.417 1.706 Redskins 23 20 26 25 23 28 26 28 22 25 27 25 24.833 2.339 Chiefs 21 28 20 29 26 23 24 26 27 29 25 22 25.000 2.916 Cardinals 25 26 28 26 25 22 25 27 23 26 28 26 25.583 1.706 Browns 27 30 24 23 27 26 28 30 26 23 22 27 26.083 2.532 Panthers 28 25 27 27 28 27 27 24 28 27 26 28 26.833 1.213 Jaguars 29 29 30 28 29 29 30 29 29 28 29 29 29.000 0.577 Vikings 30 27 29 30 30 30 29 25 30 30 30 30 29.167 1.518 Rams 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31.000 0.000 Colts 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 0.000

Observations:

I'm only echoing what others around here have said, but are we sure there isn't a third Harbaugh brother out there wanting to coach the Chargers?

A nice cluster of teams around 4th-place: 49ers, Saints, Patriots and Steelers all within one position of each other.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective Rams 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31.000 0.000 Packers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.000 Colts 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 0.000 Titans 17 17 17 17 17 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 16.917 0.276 Ravens 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 2.667 0.471 Jaguars 29 29 30 28 29 29 30 29 29 28 29 29 29.000 0.577 Eagles 18 18 18 19 19 18 18 18 19 19 20 19 18.583 0.640 Steelers 5 5 5 6 5 3 5 4 4 6 5 5 4.833 0.799 Texans 7 7 4 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6.750 0.829 Broncos 16 15 15 15 14 14 15 13 16 15 15 16 14.917 0.862 Bills 19 19 19 18 18 21 19 20 18 18 18 18 18.750 0.924 49ers 3 4 3 4 4 6 4 5 3 4 4 2 3.833 0.986 Bears 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 11 13 11 9 11 11.083 1.038 Panthers 28 25 27 27 28 27 27 24 28 27 26 28 26.833 1.213 Jets 15 16 16 16 15 15 16 15 15 16 11 15 15.083 1.320 Buccaneers 20 23 21 21 21 20 22 21 24 21 19 20 21.083 1.320 Cowboys 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 13 8.583 1.382 Raiders 10 10 10 13 10 9 12 10 12 13 13 12 11.167 1.404 Lions 11 11 13 10 12 12 14 12 14 10 10 10 11.583 1.441 Chargers 22 21 23 20 20 24 21 19 20 20 23 21 21.167 1.463 Saints 4 6 6 5 2 5 2 6 5 5 2 4 4.333 1.491 Seahawks 24 22 22 24 24 19 23 23 21 24 21 23 22.500 1.500 Vikings 30 27 29 30 30 30 29 25 30 30 30 30 29.167 1.518 Bengals 13 13 11 14 13 13 11 14 10 14 12 9 12.250 1.588 Falcons 9 8 8 9 9 11 9 9 9 9 14 8 9.333 1.599 Cardinals 25 26 28 26 25 22 25 27 23 26 28 26 25.583 1.706 Dolphins 26 24 25 22 22 25 20 22 25 22 24 24 23.417 1.706 Giants 14 14 14 12 16 17 13 16 11 12 16 14 14.083 1.801 Patriots 6 2 7 2 6 4 6 2 6 2 6 6 4.583 1.935 Redskins 23 20 26 25 23 28 26 28 22 25 27 25 24.833 2.339 Browns 27 30 24 23 27 26 28 30 26 23 22 27 26.083 2.532 Chiefs 21 28 20 29 26 23 24 26 27 29 25 22 25.000 2.916

Observations:

Rams, Colts and Packers unaniumous in their positioning at 31, 32 and 1 respectively.

Wow. Titans almost unaniumously number-17 across the board, except for PFT being the lone wolf putting them at 16th.

Objective Average

Objective Packers 2 2 1 1 1 1.400 0.490 Texans 1 1 2 3 4 2.200 1.166 Steelers 4 3 3 9 6 5.000 2.280 Patriots 3 4 6 5 8 5.200 1.721 Ravens 7 10 4 4 2 5.400 2.800 Saints 10 5 7 6 3 6.200 2.315 49ers 8 13 5 2 5 6.600 3.720 Bears 6 11 8 8 10 8.600 1.744 Lions 11 9 9 7 12 9.600 1.744 Falcons 9 14 10 12 11 11.200 1.721 Cowboys 12 6 14 10 17 11.800 3.709 Jets 5 15 15 11 15 12.200 3.919 Raiders 17 12 12 15 9 13.000 2.757 Giants 15 8 17 19 7 13.200 4.833 Bengals 13 16 13 13 16 14.200 1.470 Titans 16 21 16 14 13 16.000 2.757 Broncos 19 23 11 16 14 16.600 4.128 Eagles 14 7 19 18 27 17.000 6.542 Dolphins 18 18 18 20 22 19.200 1.600 Bills 22 17 24 17 23 20.600 3.007 Chargers 24 19 23 22 18 21.200 2.315 Buccaneers 21 26 21 21 19 21.600 2.332 Seahawks 25 28 22 23 21 23.800 2.482 Jaguars 20 22 25 24 29 24.000 3.033 Browns 26 24 28 27 20 25.000 2.828 Redskins 27 20 26 25 30 25.600 3.262 Cardinals 30 30 20 26 26 26.400 3.666 Panthers 23 25 30 28 28 26.800 2.482 Vikings 28 29 29 29 25 28.000 1.549 Chiefs 29 31 27 30 24 28.200 2.482 Rams 31 27 31 31 32 30.400 1.744 Colts 32 32 32 32 31 31.800 0.400

Observations:

Despite being a solid 7th-ranking subjectively, the objective ranking systems have the Texans giving the Packers a run for their money; two sites even rank the Texans above the Pack.

Another cluster of teams around the 5th position, mostly involving the same teams as above.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective Colts 32 32 32 32 31 31.800 0.400 Packers 2 2 1 1 1 1.400 0.490 Texans 1 1 2 3 4 2.200 1.166 Bengals 13 16 13 13 16 14.200 1.470 Vikings 28 29 29 29 25 28.000 1.549 Dolphins 18 18 18 20 22 19.200 1.600 Falcons 9 14 10 12 11 11.200 1.721 Patriots 3 4 6 5 8 5.200 1.721 Bears 6 11 8 8 10 8.600 1.744 Lions 11 9 9 7 12 9.600 1.744 Rams 31 27 31 31 32 30.400 1.744 Steelers 4 3 3 9 6 5.000 2.280 Saints 10 5 7 6 3 6.200 2.315 Chargers 24 19 23 22 18 21.200 2.315 Buccaneers 21 26 21 21 19 21.600 2.332 Chiefs 29 31 27 30 24 28.200 2.482 Panthers 23 25 30 28 28 26.800 2.482 Seahawks 25 28 22 23 21 23.800 2.482 Raiders 17 12 12 15 9 13.000 2.757 Titans 16 21 16 14 13 16.000 2.757 Ravens 7 10 4 4 2 5.400 2.800 Browns 26 24 28 27 20 25.000 2.828 Bills 22 17 24 17 23 20.600 3.007 Jaguars 20 22 25 24 29 24.000 3.033 Redskins 27 20 26 25 30 25.600 3.262 Cardinals 30 30 20 26 26 26.400 3.666 Cowboys 12 6 14 10 17 11.800 3.709 49ers 8 13 5 2 5 6.600 3.720 Jets 5 15 15 11 15 12.200 3.919 Broncos 19 23 11 16 14 16.600 4.128 Giants 15 8 17 19 7 13.200 4.833 Eagles 14 7 19 18 27 17.000 6.542

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Packers 1.000 1.400 1.200 0.322 0.400 Ravens 2.667 5.400 4.033 2.004 2.733 Texans 6.750 2.200 4.475 2.277 -4.550 Patriots 4.583 5.200 4.892 1.895 0.617 Steelers 4.833 5.000 4.917 1.409 0.167 49ers 3.833 6.600 5.217 2.519 2.767 Saints 4.333 6.200 5.267 1.967 1.867 Bears 11.083 8.600 9.842 1.713 -2.483 Cowboys 8.583 11.800 10.192 2.747 3.217 Falcons 9.333 11.200 10.267 1.843 1.867 Lions 11.583 9.600 10.592 1.782 -1.983 Raiders 11.167 13.000 12.083 2.080 1.833 Bengals 12.250 14.200 13.225 1.790 1.950 Giants 14.083 13.200 13.642 3.053 -0.883 Jets 15.083 12.200 13.642 2.734 -2.883 Broncos 14.917 16.600 15.758 2.475 1.683 Titans 16.917 16.000 16.458 1.570 -0.917 Eagles 18.583 17.000 17.792 3.660 -1.583 Bills 18.750 20.600 19.675 1.993 1.850 Chargers 21.167 21.200 21.183 1.757 0.033 Dolphins 23.417 19.200 21.308 2.549 -4.217 Buccaneers 21.083 21.600 21.342 1.699 0.517 Seahawks 22.500 23.800 23.150 1.937 1.300 Redskins 24.833 25.600 25.217 2.667 0.767 Browns 26.083 25.000 25.542 2.669 -1.083 Cardinals 25.583 26.400 25.992 2.479 0.817 Jaguars 29.000 24.000 26.500 2.852 -5.000 Chiefs 25.000 28.200 26.600 3.152 3.200 Panthers 26.833 26.800 26.817 1.689 -0.033 Vikings 29.167 28.000 28.583 1.617 -1.167 Rams 31.000 30.400 30.700 0.984 -0.600 Colts 32.000 31.800 31.900 0.235 -0.200

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Colts 32.000 31.800 31.900 0.235 -0.200 Packers 1.000 1.400 1.200 0.322 0.400 Rams 31.000 30.400 30.700 0.984 -0.600 Steelers 4.833 5.000 4.917 1.409 0.167 Titans 16.917 16.000 16.458 1.570 -0.917 Vikings 29.167 28.000 28.583 1.617 -1.167 Panthers 26.833 26.800 26.817 1.689 -0.033 Buccaneers 21.083 21.600 21.342 1.699 0.517 Bears 11.083 8.600 9.842 1.713 -2.483 Chargers 21.167 21.200 21.183 1.757 0.033 Lions 11.583 9.600 10.592 1.782 -1.983 Bengals 12.250 14.200 13.225 1.790 1.950 Falcons 9.333 11.200 10.267 1.843 1.867 Patriots 4.583 5.200 4.892 1.895 0.617 Seahawks 22.500 23.800 23.150 1.937 1.300 Saints 4.333 6.200 5.267 1.967 1.867 Bills 18.750 20.600 19.675 1.993 1.850 Ravens 2.667 5.400 4.033 2.004 2.733 Raiders 11.167 13.000 12.083 2.080 1.833 Texans 6.750 2.200 4.475 2.277 -4.550 Broncos 14.917 16.600 15.758 2.475 1.683 Cardinals 25.583 26.400 25.992 2.479 0.817 49ers 3.833 6.600 5.217 2.519 2.767 Dolphins 23.417 19.200 21.308 2.549 -4.217 Redskins 24.833 25.600 25.217 2.667 0.767 Browns 26.083 25.000 25.542 2.669 -1.083 Jets 15.083 12.200 13.642 2.734 -2.883 Cowboys 8.583 11.800 10.192 2.747 3.217 Jaguars 29.000 24.000 26.500 2.852 -5.000 Giants 14.083 13.200 13.642 3.053 -0.883 Chiefs 25.000 28.200 26.600 3.152 3.200 Eagles 18.583 17.000 17.792 3.660 -1.583

Observations:

Colts are definitely more bad than the Packers are good.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj Cowboys 8.583 11.800 10.192 2.747 3.217 Chiefs 25.000 28.200 26.600 3.152 3.200 49ers 3.833 6.600 5.217 2.519 2.767 Ravens 2.667 5.400 4.033 2.004 2.733 Bengals 12.250 14.200 13.225 1.790 1.950 Falcons 9.333 11.200 10.267 1.843 1.867 Saints 4.333 6.200 5.267 1.967 1.867 Bills 18.750 20.600 19.675 1.993 1.850 Raiders 11.167 13.000 12.083 2.080 1.833 Broncos 14.917 16.600 15.758 2.475 1.683 Seahawks 22.500 23.800 23.150 1.937 1.300 Cardinals 25.583 26.400 25.992 2.479 0.817 Redskins 24.833 25.600 25.217 2.667 0.767 Patriots 4.583 5.200 4.892 1.895 0.617 Buccaneers 21.083 21.600 21.342 1.699 0.517 Packers 1.000 1.400 1.200 0.322 0.400 Steelers 4.833 5.000 4.917 1.409 0.167 Chargers 21.167 21.200 21.183 1.757 0.033 Panthers 26.833 26.800 26.817 1.689 -0.033 Colts 32.000 31.800 31.900 0.235 -0.200 Rams 31.000 30.400 30.700 0.984 -0.600 Giants 14.083 13.200 13.642 3.053 -0.883 Titans 16.917 16.000 16.458 1.570 -0.917 Browns 26.083 25.000 25.542 2.669 -1.083 Vikings 29.167 28.000 28.583 1.617 -1.167 Eagles 18.583 17.000 17.792 3.660 -1.583 Lions 11.583 9.600 10.592 1.782 -1.983 Bears 11.083 8.600 9.842 1.713 -2.483 Jets 15.083 12.200 13.642 2.734 -2.883 Dolphins 23.417 19.200 21.308 2.549 -4.217 Texans 6.750 2.200 4.475 2.277 -4.550 Jaguars 29.000 24.000 26.500 2.852 -5.000

Observations:

Chargers, sadly, are now playing as badly as you think

Cowboys, Chiefs, 9ers and Ravens aren't playing as well as we'd like to think

Why does this seem to happen to the Chargers each week. Don't understimate the Jaguars, they're playing better than you think.

Even though they're on their 14th QB in a week, the Texans are still playing much better than you realize.

Sources