The sixth episode of Survivor: David vs. Goliath felt a lot more quiet than we’re used to from this fast-paced, often chaotic season. That would probably be due to the absence of Natalie Cole, the firebrand Goliath tribe leader who saw her reign of terror end at last week’s tribal council. When a huge pre-merge character like Natalie leaves suddenly, it leaves a void in the game, and that was definitely the case this episode. There were fights and new dynamics, but overall everyone seemed to be in a holding pattern until the final minute.

As the game opened on Jabeni, it was revealed via the recap that Angelina had been in on the plan to vote out Natalie, but threw her vote to try to get Natalie’s jacket. That was all the motivation Nick needed to proceed to throw Angelina under the bus, and it didn’t take long before the game’s mastermind convinced Mike and Lyrsa that she should be the next to go. There’s a lot of people playing advanced games this season, but few are gaming as fast and as hard as the country lawyer.

Tiva, on the other hand, was riding high. This stacked tribe has been the “love tribe” since the swap, dominated by a trio of alpha-males who immediately bonded. John and Dan have been working together since this game began, and they quickly took the awkward-but-competent Christian under their wing. Christian caught his first fish this episode, a big moment for the scientist. As their bond became stronger, Gabby continued to worry about her place in the game – and Alison took advantage, proposing a possible alliance to blindside Dan (who Alison knows has one idol, but doesn’t know about the second). The issue is, they don’t have the numbers for a women’s alliance, either on this tribe or the overall game.

The Vuku tribe, on the other hand, was embroiled in chaos. Although they had a lot of strategic conflict the last two weeks, this week it was wholly personal. As the now-David dominated tribe largely got along, things exploded when Elizabeth decided to take apart the shelter so she could remake it to be better for her back. Davie felt it was the wrong time to mess with the shelter, and Elizabeth exploded about not being supported by her tribe. You had two people who both had good points and were normally allies, so it’s not clear if this conflict will boil over beyond this episode, but it was clear that Alec and Kara saw a glimmer of hope in the David divisions.

Reward challenge was uneventful, a low-stakes battle for cooking utensils and vegetable kabobs that sent Vuku home empty-handed. Vegetable Kebabs? You don’t win friends with salad!

The immunity challenge, though, was anything but uneventful. The tough challenge involving using a giant stone saucer to transport water to a well, thus raising puzzle pieces which needed to be assembled, was one of the most difficult challenges we’ve seen on Survivor since the brutal digging challenge that took out one contestant and nearly two others in Survivor: Koh Rong. Tiva got lucky, getting enough water to the well in one go and blazing through the challenge. Vuku took two runs, but their strong, male-dominated tribe persevered. Jabeni, though, was a disaster. Taking three tries and eventually dropping their saucer at the last minute, they never even got to the puzzle phase.

Given the makeup of their tribe, it’s a breakdown that was shocking but semi-predictable. The tribe consists of one relatively fit but not muscular young man, the oldest man in the game, and two young women who haven’t demonstrated a lot of athletic skill. Even eliminating the oldest and weakest contestant in the game last week, they were still massively behind the curve in challenge strength, and it showed.

Facing their second tribal council in a row, it became clear quickly that two people were very safe. That would be the “Rock Stars”, Nick and Mike. They weren’t voting for each other, and they each had the loyalty of one of the women. It quickly became them deciding who would be going home. Nick wanted Angelina gone, seeing her as a bigger threat. Mike wanted Lyrsa gone, having never bonded with her. In the end, the contestant who was on the wrong side of a 3-1 vote was determined off-camera, as the Rock Stars made their call.

Seventh Person Voted Out Of Survivor: David vs. Goliath – Lyrsa Torres

Lyrsa’s Survivor story was an odd one, as she disappeared for long periods in between being at the core of the shocking blindsides of both Natalie and Jessica. Then it was her time to go, and she felt like she was barely even a character in her final episode. She was a likable underdog, but not much of a strategic force.

With that, the Goliaths take a 7-6 edge at the merge, but the alliances are very blurred. All three people voted out post-swap were voted out by at least one member of their own tribe. We now have to break down the merge, which is looking to be the most strategically complex one we’ve had in a while. More significant than any tribe divisions is the 8-5 edge for men over women. If the women want to get together for an alliance, they’ll need some help from the men in turning on each other.

Below, I’ll rank the 13 remaining tribe members based on how likely they are to be the merge boot of Survivor: David vs. Goliath. #1 is safest, #13 is in the most danger.

1. Nick – One of the more well-liked Davids, he’s not seen as a big threat yet and he has a tight connection with one of the Goliaths. Even if a pagonging was to begin, he’s not likely to be first on the hit list.

2. John – While he’s ostensibly the leader of the Goliaths, he’s not seen as the biggest threat or the biggest target personality-wise. The Mayor of Slamtown should keep slamming a while longer.

3. Christian – Much like Nick, he’s not seen as a threat and he has some good friends in the Goliath tribe. There’s some movement against his alliance, but neither he or John are its target.

4. Davie – Not likely to be seen as the biggest threat among the Davids, has a well-liked personality, and an idol in his pocket.

5. Mike – Mike is not only on the tribe with the numbers advantage, he’s the possible swing vote. As long as he doesn’t go Full Lacina, he should be fine.

6. Allison – While it’s entirely possible her alliance with Gabby could blow up in her face, she’s likely not to be the first person to pay the price for that move immediately.

7. Angelina – Doesn’t have a strong initial alliance, but also doesn’t have much of a reason to be targeted. Nick wanted her gone this week, but he’ll likely be on to much bigger targets soon.

8. Carl – Carl has slipped carefully under the radar and seems to be well-liked by most people. As a David leader he’s vulnerable to being targeted, but his personal connections and usefulness around camp should save him.

9. Dan – Yes, he has two idols, but one of them is public knowledge. That makes him uniquely vulnerable to Carl’s Idol nullifer should Allison’s blindside plan go off.

10. Gabby – As a David and part of Allison’s potential women’s alliance, she could easily become the target if the alliance goes bust. Has Christian and the Brochachos to shift the target if needed.

11. Elizabeth – Brash and in-your-face, but useful around camp. Her personality might make her a target, but she has more going for her than the bottom of the list.

12. Kara – On the outside of the last vote, Kara’s been struggling to find her footing ever since. As a Goliath with no allies, she could easily become a target of a fusion alliance.

13. Alec – The women are going to want him gone as an alpha male. The Davids are going to want him gone as a Goliath ringleader. He’s also seen as less than trustworthy due to his sudden flip. None of those are good things at a Survivor merge.