Dearest Abigail,

Troops are weary and rations are low after surrendering the homestead to our rival band of Texan soldiers. Lieutenant Colonel Osweiler’s ragtag aerial attack was haphazard and muddled, yet once again we suffered defeat accompanied by several casualties.

We have been forced to flee to the North, where a clan of Norse savages surely awaits us. This once-proud race has been depleted in battle as well—their front lines may in fact be more deficient than our own. But this crew of marauding Norsemen is shepherded by a bloodthirsty, one-eyed General that has refused to surrender his Northern keep. Their defenses are as robust and vigorous as a locomotive; I fear we may not be afforded sufficient time to execute our mortar strikes with Brigadier General Eugene Hilton.

However, the Norse ground troops are quite feeble. Their attacks often fail before reaching the parallel regardless of the distance they need to cover. We shan’t allow this progression to be altered lest we suffer even more losses.

Our spirits are bolstered by previous successes in these territories; our victory over Gen. Rodgers was particularly gratifying. Yet similar to our forthcoming Northern adversaries, our tactical acumen deviates greatly from battle to battle. Victory remains elusive and uncertain for all.

If we do not emerge victorious from this Northern engagement, I fear the worst for our men. I see no path to glory if the Norsemen defend us from invading their frigid abode. If this is indeed my final transmission, please send my warmest regards to the family. Always remember that my love for you is deeper than the countless frozen lakes in this godforsaken arctic wasteland.

Affectionately yours,

General Andrew A. Luck

The Vikings haven’t played the Colts in four years, so I hope you won’t be too upset that that I’m bringing back a meme that was already beaten to death a while ago. Personally I still find the “Civil War General Andrew Luck” thing to be hilarious. (Ryan Van Bibber of SB Nation did an entire series of letters last year that were decidedly better than my foray into the genre; I encourage you to read them.) Even if the humor is lost on you, General Luck makes some excellent points in his dispatch.

For starters, it’s tough to see how the Colts can make the postseason after their home loss to the Texans last week. They’re effectively two games back with three games to play and Houston hosts the Jaguars on Sunday. Brock Osweiler, who gets paid roughly $1 for each swear word he makes Texans fans utter every Sunday, could only muster 147 yards against the 26th-ranked Indianapolis pass defense. He threw his requisite terrible interception. And yet the Colts still lost because Houston held the ball 50% longer than Indianapolis and Luck turned the ball over three times himself. One interception came after Dwayne Allen fell down and his fumble came from a blind side strip sack, but the second pick was a classic case of Luck trying to do too much.

Luck is excellent at buying time with his legs and scrambling. His 304 yards rushing this season puts him only 84 yards behind the Vikings’ leading rusher, Jerick McKinnon. On this play, Whitney Mercilus did an excellent job of keeping Luck in the pocket and forcing the ill-advised pass.

The Vikings defensive line should be able to get to Luck plenty on Sunday. As awful as the Minnesota offensive line has been this season, the Colts have allowed 40 sacks compared to 29 allowed by the Vikings. They’re beat up too. Left guard Jack Mewhort, arguably their best interior offensive lineman, is now out for the year with a knee injury. Indianapolis is likely to roll out their seventh different starting line combination on Sunday, something Vikings fans are all too familiar with. But getting to Luck and bringing him down are two different things. The Vikings defensive line will have to be careful about their angles they take to the quarterback. If they over-pursue like they did against Matthew Stafford earlier in the season, Luck will be able to drive Vikings fans crazy with drive-extending scrambles.

The Vikings defensive line has been driving offensive coordinators crazy for most of the season and it seems like they’re playing their best football these past few weeks. This play against Jacksonville encapsulates what the defense has been doing so well lately. The front four creates pressure on their own and quickly gets to Blake Bortles. Meanwhile, Eric Kendricks takes away not one but two quick reads, which gives Brian Robison more than enough time to get the sack. While Anthony Barr seems to have taken a step back this season (I’m still not sure he’s 100% healthy), the improvement that Kendricks has shown this season has been a revelation. The second-year linebacker still throws in a “WTF?” play every now and then, but the positives have far outweighed the negatives.

The front seven better not have too many negatives, because if Luck has time to find T.Y. Hilton the Vikings could be in big trouble. Hilton is the sixth-most targeted receiver in the league this year and it’s easy to see why when you watch the film. There isn’t a route that Hilton can’t run well and he’s proficient from both the outside and the slot. He can get deep and change the game in an instant.

With Harrison Smith likely missing his second straight game on Sunday, I’m not sure I would want Hilton getting loose with only Anthony Harris or Andrew Sendejo between him and the end zone too often.

After what we saw through the first three quarters in Jacksonville, I feel like I might need to remind everyone what an “end zone” is. Short yardage woes continued to plague the Vikings like the goal line in Jacksonville was an impenetrable force field. Before the final scoring drive, the Vikings ran 14 plays inside the Jaguars’ 10 yard line and came away with only six points. I’m not sure how Adrian Peterson will fit in with Pat Shurmur’s new shotgun-heavy offense if or when he returns, but I’m fairly certain he can fall forward for a yard better than Matt Asiata has lately.

Of course this isn’t all on Asiata; the line and play calling aren’t doing him any favors. The rushing offense is historically bad. The offensive line is in shambles. So why the heck are you even trying to run straight up the middle with zero misdirection?

The Vikings ran the ball six times inside the five yard line last week in Jacksonville. The most pre-snap motion they included in any of those plays, all in jumbo sets without spreading the field at all, was Rhett Ellison going in motion and then going back to his original position. The goal line passing was far from a sure thing as well—the complete pass to Ellison from the 1 that somehow didn’t score was sure something. But the Vikings have to at least try to mix things up in short yardage situations. Because you know what they say about the definition of insanity.

But hey, at least the Vikings were able to get that close to the end zone on multiple occasions, right? They even connected on a few deep passes!

There should be plenty of opportunities to replicate that success against the Indianapolis defense. The Colts D is in the bottom quarter of the league in weighted defensive DVOA, total yards, yards per rush, passing yards, and yards per attempt among other categories. Their pass rush is pretty average so Bradford might actually have some time to throw downfield. If he does, there are usually plenty of holes to exploit in the secondary.

If this game is close—and since the Vikings and playoff hopes are involved, I’m assuming it will be—Kai Forbath and Jeff Locke will need to be on top of their game. The Colts may have the best kicking combo in the NFL. Adam Vinatieri is a timeless treasure, fresh off an NFL record 44 consecutive made field goals. We all think Chad Greenway is a really old dude originally from South Dakota; he’s a full ten years younger than Vinatieri, really REALLY old dude originally from South Dakota. Meanwhile, Pat McAfee trails only Marquette King in the “punters that are really good at their job and also seem like they’d be awesome to hang with” category. I have a feeling that special teams could play a big part in the outcome on Sunday; hopefully the Vikings are up to the task.

It’s tough to project what might happen on Sunday since these two teams have been so unpredictable throughout the season. The Colts won wire-to-wire in Green Bay, swept the Titans, and throttled the Jets on the road. Yet they’re 0-3 against Osweiler and Bortles. Their lack of consistency and inability to finish off games is probably going to keep them out of the postseason. If the Vikings can’t get it together and win their second straight game on Sunday, their lack of consistency and inability to finish off games will definitely keep them out of the postseason.

Overall I think the Colts in their current state are a good matchup for the Vikings. Luck and Hilton might hook up for a big play or two, and the somehow-still-competent Frank Gore could keep the chains moving here and there. But I think the Vikings should be able to complete their season sweep the AFC South by pestering Luck all day and taking advantage of a weak Colts defense. Even if the Vikings don’t get the help they need down the stretch, it would be nice for the season to still matter into Christmas. Forging ahead into Lambeau with the possible returns of Adrian Peterson and Harrison Smith on the horizon would be a nice stocking stuffer at the very least.

So it’s time to vanquish General Andrew Luck and his depleted troops once and for all. Let’s give Ryan Grigson and Chuck Pagano the nudge toward the door that Colts fans so desperately want. Let’s make the Christmas Eve game at Lambeau the most important game since...well, the last game at Lambeau.

And while we’re at it—let’s go Bears, 49ers, Cowboys, and Panthers!

Prediction

Vikings 26, Colts 20

And now for the rest of my Week 15 NFL picks (home teams in ALL CAPS):

SEAHAWKS over Rams

Pretty cold blooded of the Rams to fire Jeff Fisher the week before he was going to break the all-time head coach losses record. It won’t be the same Thursday night poopfest without him.

Dolphins over JETS

I really wanted to pick the upset—Ryan Tannehill is out, the Dolphins are 8-5 despite being outscored by 20 points on the season, and Miami needed a late kick return TD to beat New York last time around. But I saw Bryce Petty play last week against San Francisco. Nope.

BILLS over Browns

The Browns have reached “throw a flea flicker into triple coverage from your own end zone” levels of not giving a f*ck. The Bills are a mess but nobody wants to be “that team.” Especially at home.

Packers over BEARS

It’ll be ridiculously cold and poor wittle Aaron Rodgers has a boo boo on his weg. Big deal. Chicago can get our hopes up all they want, just like they did last week in Detroit. But we know better.

Steelers over BENGALS

What will there be more of in this game: touchdowns or fistfights? They should roll Vontaze Burfict out in the gurney they used for Hannibal Lecter before the game.

Lions over GIANTS

Might as well concede the division now and hope the Vikings can catch the Giants and beat them on the tiebreaker. Of course I am 4-9 picking the winners of Lions games this year...

CHIEFS over Titans

I really wish Tyreek Hill was an easier athlete to appreciate. It’s always such a bummer thinking “Wow! That was amaz—but oh yeah that too” every time he makes a big play.

RAVENS over Eagles

Like I’m going to pick a team that’s 2-6 over their last 8 games. Hey wait, that sounds familiar...

TEXANS over Jaguars

Houston is still crap, but they always beat up on the AFC South. That might just be enough to propel them into the playoffs. Hey wait, that sounds familiar...

FALCONS over 49ers

My Survivor Pool pick of the week, now 12-2 on the year after Tampa dispatched New Orleans last week. Because I have a steadfast rule when it comes to my NFL picks: whenever a team loses twelve straight games with the most recent loss being one where they squandered a 14-point home lead to the Jets, I always pick them to lose to a playoff contender on the road the following week.

Always.

CARDINALS over Saints

There should be a support group for fantasy football players that were knocked out of the playoffs by New Orleans’ horrible performances over the past two weeks. Lord knows I could use one.

Patriots over BRONCOS

Yeah, I know. The Broncos need this one more than the Pats do and Tom Brady has a lousy record in Denver throughout his career. But Denver’s offense is currently making them long for the good old days of 2015 Peyton Manning.

Raiders over CHARGERS

I had a good reason for San Diego to pull off the upset but Philip Rivers just threw it away.

COWBOYS over Buccaneers

If Tampa’s defense stays hot and the Bucs jump out to an early lead, I’m putting the over/under of NBC’s awkward sideline shots of Tony Romo at 108.5.

Panthers over REDSKINS

Carolina is our new second favorite team over the next three weeks: they play Washington, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay to close the season. C’mon Cam Newton! If you pull off the upset Monday I promise not to make fun of your outfit at the press conference!

Last week: 13-3

Season so far: 127-78-2