His views are already pitting him against one of his party’s most influential activists. Jeb Bush's tax problem

Jeb Bush has a tax problem.

The former Florida governor has said he could accept tax increases in a hypothetical deficit-cutting deal. Never mind that he added that would come only in exchange for major federal spending cuts, or that he repeatedly cut taxes as governor.


Tax hikes are still apostasy in Republican circles, and the stance could be a big problem for Bush if he decides to seek the party’s presidential nomination in 2016.

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Bush’s views are already pitting him against one of his party’s most influential activists, Grover Norquist, the high priest of anti-tax orthodoxy who’s convinced nearly every elected Republican to sign a pledge not to raise taxes.

“Mind-boggling,” Norquist said of Bush.

It’s the very issue that helped bring down Bush’s father, former President George H.W. Bush, who lost his bid for a second term after famously reneging on a “no new taxes” pledge.

“If my father had thrown away a perfectly good presidency by raising taxes, I think one of the things in life that I would learn is, ‘Don’t do that,’” Norquist said. “But here you have Jeb Bush going, ‘I learned nothing from my father’s self-immolation.”

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Add to that Bush’s left-of-party views on immigration and education, and he’s got a trio of issues where rivals would paint him as a squish, out of touch with the rock-solid conservatives who rule the early presidential primaries.

And while Bush might be able to talk through education and immigration by portraying himself as a forward-thinking Republican, opponents would seize on the slightest wobble when it comes to taxes.

“‘I’m running because I want to raise your taxes so I can fix Medicaid and Medicare?” said Katon Dawson, former chairman of the Republican Party in South Carolina, a state with a notoriously fierce primary. “If that’s the sound bite, good luck.” He said, “I’ve seen ‘em win primaries talking about getting the burden of the government off their back. I’ve never seen a primary where they said, ‘We’re going to put a little more burden on your back.’”

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Bush’s willingness to at least contemplate tax hikes also puts him at odds with most Republicans in Washington, including their point man on all-things fiscal, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.). Congressional Republicans have taken a hell-no stand on tax increases and waged a series of battles to defend it, risking a government default and scuttling a string of efforts to cut the deficit: Simpson-Bowles, the Biden group, the Gang of Six.

Bush broke with his party on taxes in a little-noticed congressional hearing in June 2012. A Democrat on the House Budget Committee asked him if he would accept a theoretical deficit plan proposed in a 2011 presidential debate that was rejected by all eight Republican primary candidates, including Mitt Romney. At the time, Democrats pointed to the refusals as an example of Republican obstinacy on taxes.

Bush’s answer surprised the panel.

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“If you could bring to me a majority of people to say that we’re going to have $10 of spending cuts for $1 of revenue enhancement — put me in, Coach,” Bush told lawmakers. “This will prove I’m not running for anything,” added Bush, who at the time was the subject of speculation that he might become Romney’s running mate.

Bush also noted that he had repeatedly rejected signing Norquist’s anti-tax pledge. “I don’t believe you outsource your principles and convictions to people,” he said.

Of course, Bush does not want to raise taxes — he’s not pushing the idea. He’s just not automatically ruling tax hikes out as part of a bipartisan deal to address the soaring costs associated with the retirement of the 75 million-strong baby boom generation.

“Gov. Bush doesn’t support raising taxes,” said spokeswoman Kristy Campbell. “He also doesn’t support doing nothing about the massive national debt that has accumulated as a result of runaway spending and unsustainable entitlement programs. Saddling our children and grandchildren with $18 trillion in debt is not the solution to restoring a strong economy for our nation’s future.”

She also pointed to his two terms as governor, where he cut taxes on businesses, investments, large estates and homes.

“His record on cutting taxes and exercising strong fiscal discipline speaks for itself,” Campbell said.

But Republican strategists say the primary will again surely be stocked with tax increase hardliners who, if anything, will be promising tax cuts.

“I don’t even know if you’ll get out of the starting gate with that kind of message,” said Greg Mueller, a conservative strategist. “That’s a deal breaker for a lot of voters.”

Just last week, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), widely believed to be considering a run, veered to the right of virtually all Republicans in Congress by declaring he does not support deficit-neutral tax reform.

Any overhaul must also be a net tax cut, said Paul, so that not only would marginal rates come down, but so would the total amount of revenue flowing into the Treasury.

“I’m not for “revenue neutral” tax reform,” Paul said on Twitter. “What does that accomplish? Let’s be boldly for what we are for.” He said, “Reagan was FOR something. Cutting taxes for everyone.”

Bush can’t win without recanting, Norquist said.

“He would be wise to come up with some explanation about back-pain medicine,” he said.

The Bush camp is quick to note that he hasn’t even decided if he’s running.

Bush told The Associated Press last week that his wife, believed to be wary of a bid, was “supportive.”

“That doesn’t mean I don’t understand the challenges that this brings,” he said.

Bush’s willingness to consider tax hikes shows he’s a “problem solver” who “refuses to play the ideologue game for the mere sake of fitting in with today’s Washington D.C.,” said Al Cardenas, a friend and political adviser.

“He will not be a naysayer for the sake of an applause line,” Cardenas said. “He firmly believes that the American people deserve solutions and not just incendiary rhetoric.”

It’s the latest twist in the Bush family’s tangled history with taxes.

His father’s flip-flop helped give rise to the party’s hard line on taxes. Norquist’s anti-tax pledge exploded in popularity in the wake of Bush’s 1992 defeat.

And George W. Bush’s massive tax cuts in 2001 and 2003 dominated the budget debate in Washington for more than a decade, with lawmakers still bickering over them today.

To be sure, some independent observers say Bush could cast himself as a budgetary truth teller, willing to say unpopular things to tackle the debt. That would put him in the company of some conservative senators like Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) and Mike Crapo (R-Idaho).

Others argue that, with Bush’s positions on immigration and education, he was never going to run as a stout conservative anyway.

“One of the spaces that remains open in our party is for the pragmatic, center-right, governing person,” said Tom Rath, a longtime party strategist in New Hampshire. “That might be a place where Bush would fit.”

Some Republicans who chafe at their party’s tax mantra say they are eager for the debate on tax increases that his candidacy would bring.

“His answer on the tax issue was totally right, and if we’re ever going to deal with the long-term debt question, Republicans are going to have to come to grips with that,” said Vin Weber, a party strategist and former Republican congressman from Minnesota. If Bush decides to run, Weber says, “we’ll find out if the Republican Party is open to it.”