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A surge in emissions from Australia’s huge liquefied natural gas projects could throw a spanner in the nation meeting its climate targets.

The country’s largest industrial emitters are spewing out 60% more carbon dioxide than in 2005 and the continued growth is “in conflict with Australia’s long-term decarbonisation targets,” energy consultants Reputex said Tuesday.

Australia’s overall emissions are falling thanks to a switch away from coal to renewables for power generation. But pollution by the oil and gas sector has risen more than sevenfold since 2005 following the start of LNG projects by companies from Chevron Corp. to Royal Dutch Shell Plc that turned Australia into one of the world’s largest exporters of the fuel.

“In the absence of an emissions limit, industry sector emissions are projected to grow to 110% above 2005 levels by 2030,” Hugh Grossman, executive director at Reputex, said in a media release. “This will see the industry sector surpass electricity as Australia’s largest emitting segment in 2023-24, with no limit on emissions growth -- or alignment with the national emissions target.”

Prime Minister Scott Morrison insists the nation is on target to meet its Paris Agreement commitments, which call for an overall reduction of at least 26% from 2005 levels by 2030, but has faced criticism for his continued support of coal and natural gas even as unprecedented fires ravage the country. Most LNG plant emissions come from the extraction of source fuel, especially from coal seams, and from cooling it to -162 degrees Celsius (-260 degrees Fahrenheit) to condense it so it can be shipped overseas.

Australia’s emissions have fallen about 13% since 2005, yet progress has slowed in recent years amid the government’s refusal to legislate a price on carbon.

Road transport, mining and aviation also saw strong emissions growth since 2005, according to the Reputex study of the 250 largest emitting companies, which account for 60% of the country’s total pollution. In the power sector a surge in wind and solar generation helped to drive a 9% decline.

“Large-scale emissions growth from industry is eroding gains elsewhere in the economy, which is in conflict with our long-term decarbonisation goal,” Grossman said.

To contact the reporter on this story: James Thornhill in Sydney at jthornhill3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ramsey Al-Rikabi at ralrikabi@bloomberg.net, Rob Verdonck, Keith Gosman

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