40-40 Club

In Notre Dame’s 75-70 victory over Clemson, it didn’t feel like the Irish played that well for most of the game. Trailing 40-33 at the half, Coach Mike Brey was apparently pretty upset with his team’s performance. “He came in hot,” Matt Farrell said regarding Brey’s halftime talk. “Kicking over things, throwing things. I can’t repeat what he said, but he challenged us and we responded.”

The Irish played better in the second half, but things rarely “feel easy” for this squad. Opponents tend to utilize a size/athleticism advantage over the Irish and take advantage of inconsistent interior defense, resulting in some relatively easy buckets in the paint. The Irish are great offensively, but their shots often take a bit more work and are a product of great ball movement (33rd best assist percentage in nation per KenPom).

This reality creates a trap that is often easy for me to fall into. Instinctively, basketball feels like it’s about maximizing one’s chances to score, so getting as close as one can to the basket seems to be optimal. By this logic, Clemson’s offense must seem pretty elite when it makes plays like below, right?

But offensive basketball is not just about “maximizing one’s chances to score.” It’s about maximizing one’s chances to score the most points on individual possessions. Getting close to the basket like Clemson did much of the game might help their probability to score, but utilizing the three-point shot like the Irish did (32 3PA compared to 18 for Clemson) often results in more expected points for an individual possession. If a team hits 40% from three for example, a team would have to make 60% of their two-point FGA just to keep up.

The Irish attempt over 40% of their shots from three, and when they hit these shots, they have a clear advantage over the opposition. It might not feel like the Irish are getting “easy” shots offensively relative to their opponents, but if they hit threes at a good enough percentage, the math says they are going to accumulate a lot of points by the game’s end.

Well, the Irish have not only been making threes at a “good enough percentage,” they’ve been taking and making threes at a historic level. The below table and graph shows the number of teams to make more than 40% of their threes, attempt more than 40% of their shots from three, and the number of teams to do both over a season (includes current season).

The evolution towards more three-point shooting is evident, particularly in recent years. In 2001-02, only 27 teams attempted >40% of their shots from three (per KenPom). In 2013-14, this number was still only at 35, but this season there has been a huge jump, with 90 teams launching threes on at least 40% of their shots.

The more threes a team shoots, the harder it is to maintain a high 3P%. Some past teams have made over 40% of their threes but didn’t attempt that many as a percentage of total shots (maybe only took wide open threes for example). As a team attempts more threes, the percentage of “high quality” three-point attempts will likely decline, making it difficult to maintain a high overall 3P%.

This is why over the past 16 seasons (including current season), only 27 teams have both attempted over 40% of their shots from three and made over 40% of their three-point attempts (40-40 club). The Irish are one of these teams, making 40.2% of their threes and attempting 40.9% of their shots from long-range this season. Vanderbilt, Marshall, Marquette, and Western Illinois are the other four teams currently members of the prestigious club.

The Irish may not remain in this 40-40 club all season, but the fact they are members now is really quite an accomplishment. It’s hard to put into words, but attempting over 40% of one’s shots from three and making over 40% of these shots gives a team such an edge on the offensive end and puts tremendous pressure on opposing offenses to keep up. The fact the Irish have done this against high levels of competition makes it all the more impressive.

The Irish may not have looked great all game against Clemson, but with their 62 field goal attempts, they took 32 threes and hit an absurd 15-32. If a team attempts a ton of threes, it’s often said they’re at risk of “living by the three and dying by the three.” But if a team makes threes at the rate the Irish have so far and has the number of quality shooters this roster does, attempting a lot of threes isn’t really all that risky of a proposition.

Even if the Irish don’t always look like an elite team, the math will be in their favor most games. The “math” doesn’t manifest itself physically on the basketball court, which is why the Irish will likely remain a bit underrated all season. But this doesn’t make the team any less dangerous.

Random Irish Hoop Thoughts

Luck of the Irish

As much as the Irish offense has relied on threes, the team also has a great post player in Bonzie Colson. The junior played well against Clemson (13 pts, 12 reb), but he and the entire team clearly had the “luck of the Irish” on their side during two late game possessions. Two Colson post ups lead to two rejections and a total of five Irish points. This had to be incredibly demoralizing for the Tigers.

Bonzie the Shooter

After going 0-8 over the past six games on three-pointers and not attempting one in the previous game against Louisville, Bonzie decided to unleash the long ball against Clemson. He went 1-3 from beyond the arc, and although the Irish offense doesn’t really “need” him to shoot threes, having another capable three-point threat would be valuable.

It would help with offensive spacing when both Colson and Martinas Geben are on the floor, and it would also keep defenses honest on pick-and-rolls like below. If Bonzie is a threat to shoot, his man won’t want to overcommit to the ball handler.

Colson has a pretty good shooting stroke, and he’s shown enough with his shot to warrant attempting a three or two per contest. I have an image of my mind of Bonzie hitting a big three late in some game. He’s capable of making the shot, but the shot’s success is improbable enough that the opposition would probably be pretty crushed if it went in.

Fun Offensive Set

The Irish run a lot of pick-and-rolls, but one of Colson, Geben, or Austin Torres is almost always used as the screener. The Irish should at times consider using a shooter as a screener like they do below. VJ Beachem sets a screen for Farrell and then pops open for three.

Unless the defense switches the pick-and-roll, this is really difficult to cover. Two defenders try to corral Farrell, leaving Beachem open. Colson drags his defender away from Beachem, preventing him from being able to help on the play. The Tigers do a good job of recovering to prevent a shot, but I think the Irish should definitely go back to this in the future.