In the wake of the failed attempt by this Congress to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, the president and congressional leadership have signaled that the next big effort will be to reform the tax code.

And while Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin may say that tax reform is much easier , all evidence points to the contrary.

It’s been more than 30 years since the last major overhaul of the tax code. Almost all tax legislation in that period of time has either added loopholes and complications to the code or simply handed out tax breaks without any clear plan to make up the lost revenue save for the magic of economic growth. Meanwhile, the national debt has ballooned from $2.1 trillion to nearly $20 trillion.

Just as they tried to do with health care, congressional leadership is prepared, if not planning, to pass tax reform through a process called budget reconciliation.

Reconciliation is an occasionally used addendum to the annual budget process. As in any year (at least theoretically), the House and Senate each pass a budget resolution. Once these are passed, a concurrent budget resolution is negotiated and agreed to by both chambers, setting the overall discretionary spending limits for the upcoming fiscal year. The budget resolution may also include instructions to the authorizing committees that oversee the two-thirds of the federal budget that isn’t subject to annual appropriations (i.e. mandatory spending). These instructions direct each committee to devise certain direct spending or revenue changes for the government programs they oversee, or to adjust the debt limit. This is known as budget reconciliation. The reasons this is a particularly popular tool when there is one party in power are simple:

1. It’s enforceable. If the committees don’t do what they are told, the budget committee can ensure that changes happen on the floor. 2. A budget reconciliation bill can’t be filibustered. In fact, it only needs a simple majority to pass in the Senate. 3. Unlike a concurrent budget resolution, a budget reconciliation bill is sent to the president to be signed into law or vetoed.