Welcome back for a special Part IV of this season’s “Seeing the Draft Through Ted Thompson’s Eyes.” In Part I, we identified the five factors that matter most when Thompson is deciding how to use his limited draft choices, roster spots, and salary cap space. In Part II, we looked at Thompson’s current job postings for the Packers’ offense, and tried to identify a few leading candidates for each opening among the 2017 draft prospects. In Part III, we did the same for the defense.

Today, we take a peek at Thompson’s new hires for the job openings we identified. Then, we step back to look at the bigger picture—and explain why the Packers will keep winning long after Thompson and Aaron Rodgers retire.

THOMPSON’S NEW HIRES

As we noted in Part I, the Packers are a company in the business of winning football games, and Thompson selects his 53-man workforce the same way other businesses do: by identifying job openings that need to be filled, and picking the best candidates he can find for the price. Here’s how Thompson filled those openings this year.

JOB OPENING NO. 1 : Big, fast defensive backs who can cover big, fast targets

OUR LEADING PRE-DRAFT CANDIDATES: Chidobe Awuzie, Kevin King, Fabian Moreau

THOMPSON’S HIRES: King and Josh Jones

ANALYSIS: Enough was enough. Last year, the Packers’ secondary made a weekly ritual of giving up career days to marginal 6’2”-plus speedsters like Adam Thielen, Marvin Jones, and Dorial Green-Beckham. The 6’3” King can put a stop to that immediately. And the sky’s the limit for him, if he can figure out how to use his NBA-caliber athletic gifts.

Thompson’s second pick, Josh Jones, unlocks the full value of Morgan Burnett. Burnett’s safety instincts were wasted last year when forced into duty as a nickel linebacker, where he was responsible for the more mundane duties of stopping the run and covering speedy tight ends. But Jones is tailor-made for those tasks, combining cornerback speed with coverage-linebacker size (6’2”, 220) and a mean streak. With Jones in the fold, Capers can once again put Burnett to his highest and best use as a ball-hawking off-ball safety—and the sight of Burnett lurking deep ought to deter opposing quarterbacks from taking the deep shots that embarrassed the secondary last year.

JOB OPENING NO. 2 : A quality defensive lineman to square the Daniels-Clark-Lowry trio into a proper rotational quartet

OUR LEADING PRE-DRAFT CANDIDATES: Dalvin Tomlinson, Chris Wormley, Larry Ogunboji, D.J. Jones

THOMPSON’S HIRE: Montravius Adams

ANALYSIS: Thompson is probably thanking his lucky stars. Three of our leading candidates were off the board by the time Thompson’s third pick rolled around, but Adams is more athletic than any of them. Adams ran the fastest 40-yard dash—by far—of any 300-plus pound prospect at the scouting combine, and he was expected to be drafted a round earlier. Adams’ quickness offers a different pass-rushing skill set than Kenny Clark or Dean Lowry, giving Capers the flexibility to mix and match on passing downs depending on the opponent’s pass-blocking weaknesses. With Daniels, Clark and Lowry signed through 2019 and Adams through 2020, Thompson has finally replaced “Mike Daniels and Pluggers” with a more dynamic band.

JOB OPENING NO. 3 : A rare running back with the size and speed to keep coverage personnel off the field in two-TE sets

OUR LEADING PRE-DRAFT CANDIDATE: D’Onta Foreman

THOMPSON’S HIRE: Devante Mays

ANALYSIS: In Part II, we noted that Foreman’s 4.45 speed at 230 pounds could create unique problems for defensive coordinators, because Foreman was too big for coverage gnats to reliably tackle on their own—and too fast to be swarmed by them. We also noted that if Thompson “misses out on Foreman, that’s it—there are no other backs after him with the size and speed to clear things out for Rodgers.”

Turns out, there was another. Foreman went off the board four picks before the Packers’ third-rounder, but Packers’ scouts spotted Utah State’s Mays—who has the same size and speed—rumbling for more than 200 yards in early-season action against Weber State. They didn’t see much more, because Mays hurt his ankle and sat for most of his senior year. (He was a JUCO transfer who split carries as a junior.) But backs with that kind of size-speed combo are hard to find in undrafted free agency, and a seventh-round pick is a low price to pay for someone who may be able to dictate defensive personnel. Even if Mays can’t read a block to save his life, he’ll still make defensive coordinators nervous.

JOB OPENING NO. 4 : If they don’t draft Foreman, then a sturdy, reliable back who can handle full-time duty if necessary

OUR LEADING PRE-DRAFT CANDIDATES: Brian Hill, Jeremy McNichols

THOMPSON’S HIRE: Jamaal Williams

ANALYSIS: Thompson had his choice of traditional, between-the-tackles backs at the end of the fourth round, and he went for the sturdiest option of all in Williams. He doesn’t have electric speed or cut-on-a-dime quickness, but he won’t need them to pick up yards in Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers + Martellus Bennett + Lance Kendricks in double tight-end sets = big holes for running backs. McCarthy just needs backs who will take advantage without giving the ball away, and Williams is as reliable as they come. He had only one fumble per 140 carries in college, a great ball-security rate.

JOB OPENING NO. 5 : A back-up for Ty Montgomery who can catch passes and squirt through big running lanes

OUR LEADING PRE-DRAFT CANDIDATE: Aaron Jones

THOMPSON’S HIRE: Jones

ANALYSIS: Jones is smaller than Montgomery, but he can do the same things: catch passes out of the backfield, shoot through big holes, and make tacklers miss in the open field. Montgomery has been oft-injured in his two years in Green Bay, and Jones ensures that McCarthy won’t have to throw out the playbook if Montgomery misses time.

JOB OPENING NO. 6 : Depth at linebacker

OUR LEADING PRE-DRAFT CANDIDATES: Blair Brown and Dylan Cole (inside), Ifeadi Odenigbo and Samson Ebukam (outside), Vince Biegel (both)

THOMPSON’S HIRE: Biegel

ANALYSIS: Biegel’s value comes from his pro-ready versatility. He could line up for the Packers tomorrow at 3-4 outside linebacker without looking lost, though he’ll always struggle to beat NFL blockers at that position. (He’s just not explosive or quick enough to easily overcome his smaller frame for the position.) But Biegel is the perfect size for inside linebacker, where his instincts can be put to their best use. That kind of two-for-one ability saves a roster spot, while Biegel’s work ethic and focus are perfect fits for the workplace culture. If Biegel isn’t needed right away at outside linebacker, don’t be surprised if he supplants Blake Martinez or Jake Ryan in the starting lineup inside. Biegel’s a little bigger than both of them, he runs just as well, and his smarts and instincts are off the charts.

JOB OPENING NO. 7 : Depth at outside receiver

OUR LEADING PRE-DRAFT CANDIDATES: Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson, Chad Hansen

THOMPSON’S HIRE: DeAngelo Yancey

ANALYSIS: Darboh, Chesson, and Hansen were all off the board by the time Thompson turned his attention to this job opening. So he filled it with Yancey, a slightly slower and less-polished version of Darboh. Both are big and strong enough to escape the clutches of big press corners, and Yancey—unlike Geronimo Allison—is fast enough to make a clean getaway. Yancey doesn’t profile as a future starter, because he doesn’t have the hands and fluid athleticism of Jordy Nelson or Davante Adams. (There’s a reason they were second-round picks, while Yancey went in the fifth.) But he should provide higher-quality depth at outside receiver than Allison. So long as Thompson can re-sign Adams before next offseason, that’s all the roster needs.

JOB OPENING NO. 8 : Depth on the interior line

OUR LEADING PRE-DRAFT CANDIDATES: Chase Roullier, Danny Isidora, Corey Levin

THOMPSON’S HIRES: Jahri Evans (veteran free agent), Kofi Amichia

ANALYSIS: This draft had fewer pro-ready prospects than usual along the interior offensive line, and Thompson decided to take no chances. The day before the draft, he signed aging former Pro Bowler Jahri Evans, the most reliable veteran still on the market. That one-year rental freed Thompson to draft an interior lineman without worrying about whether he would be ready to play. Amichia isn’t ready—he started only two years against weaker competition at South Florida, and he’s still growing into NFL size. But he’s smart, he’s a great athlete, and with Evans around, the Packers’ staff can afford to give him a year to learn. If Amichia hits, then Thompson will have a waiting replacement when Corey Linsley, Lane Taylor, and Evans all hit free agency after the season.

JOB OPENING NO. 9 : Developmental wide receiver

OUR LEADING PRE-DRAFT CANDIDATES: Mack Hollins and Krishawn Hogan

THOMPSON’S HIRE: Malachi Dupre

ANALYSIS: Dupre is Hollins, minus 25 pounds—which is likely why Hollins went in the fourth round, while Dupre was still available at the end of the seventh. Like Hollins, Dupre is tall, fast, and great on deep routes. He just hasn’t mastered any of the short and intermediate ones. But Dupre is a better overall athlete than Yancey with more natural receiving skills, and he may pass him on the depth chart after a year of weightlifting and route-running work.

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WHY THE PACKERS WILL KEEP WINNING FOREVER

When the NFL implemented the salary cap in 1994, it gave every franchise the same chance to succeed. The 32 teams share revenue and play by the same rules, including a worst-to-first draft order to help downtrodden teams reload. By design, every franchise ought to go through alternating waves of success and rebuilding, with an average of eight wins a year. And for most teams, that’s how it’s worked.

But not the Packers, Patriots, and Steelers. They’ve averaged more than 10 wins a season in the 23-year Salary Cap Era, beating the odds by 25 percent—despite always picking at the back-end of the draft.

Lazier media members dismiss their sustained success as luck, the byproduct of stumbling onto great quarterbacks and riding their Hall-of-Fame talent to the playoffs year after year. But good quarterbacks didn’t end up on those teams’ rosters by accident. Bill Belichick, Ron Wolf, Ted Thompson, and Pittsburgh GM Kevin Colbert all recognized that a good starting quarterback is an absolute requirement for NFL success, and they all made it an immediate priority to find one. They didn’t fool themselves into believing that Don Majkowski or Charlie Batch was a long-term answer. Nor did they assume that aging QBs will play forever. As soon as Favre, Brady, Roethlisberger, and Rodgers hit their mid-thirties, those GMs immediately began drafting and grooming potential successors. They know that acquiring a decent starting QB is Job One for an NFL general manager, and it always will be.

Finding those quarterbacks didn’t require talent-spotting genius, either. Wolf didn’t know that Brett Favre was headed to the Hall of Fame; if he did, he wouldn’t have stood pat in the 1991 NFL Draft and allowed Favre to be taken one pick ahead of him. (Wolf, then the personnel director for the New York Jets, wound up taking the illustrious Browning Nagle instead.) Thompson let other GMs have 23 chances to take Aaron Rodgers; Belichick gave them 198 chances to grab Tom Brady. They didn’t know that those prospects would be stars. But they were educated enough to know the traits that good starting quarterbacks possess, and they knew they had to immediately look for people who had them—and keep looking, until they found a long-term answer. And then they had to start looking again, the same as they do with every other position.

Setting and sticking to priorities is not organizational luck or genius. It is organizational discipline, and most franchises don’t have it. Many have owners who bought teams to make a big splash, and they can’t resist wedging their noses into football operations. Other owners lack confidence in themselves and their GM hires, losing trust after early failures or media criticism. Those owners prevent their GMs from feeling secure, and insecure managers are more concerned about keeping their jobs than making the best long-term decisions for their companies.

That’s not the case for the Packers, Patriots, and Steelers. They all hired GMs with the patience and intelligence to think long-term, and enough training and experience to never doubt they were better-positioned than anyone else to make good roster decisions. Wolf, Thompson, and Colbert spent their careers in NFL personnel departments, while Bill Belichick’s father literally wrote the book on football scouting. The Krafts, the Rooneys, Bob Harlan, and Mark Murphy all lacked that training, and they all had the humility to recognize it—and the discipline to stay out of football decisions.

Many of today’s owners are saying the right things, and promising not to meddle. Some may succeed, as the Krafts and Rooneys have done in New England and Pittsburgh. But those franchises will always be one inheritance or sale away from organizational discord.

Packer fans are the only ones who never have to worry. There will never be an all-powerful owner in Green Bay, and Harlan went to great lengths to remove football-decision power from non-football people. Thanks to Harlan, the Packers are the only contestant in this 32-team business competition with a structure that is fire-proofed against ill-informed, impulsive, or egotistical decisions by people who aren’t qualified to make them.

For that reason, there’s no “window” that’s closing for the Packers. Aaron Rodgers’ career will end, just like Brett Favre’s did. When it does, good football people will have someone ready to take his place. Rodgers, Favre, and everyone else were acquired and re-signed by GMs who were well-trained in the business of building winning football organizations. (It’s no coincidence that all of the former Packer scouts who are now GMs—including Seattle’s John Schneider, Kansas City’s John Dorsey, and Oakland’s Reggie McKenzie—quickly constructed rosters good enough to make the playoffs.) As new ownership shuffles through Chicago, Detroit, and Minnesota in the decades to come, making headline-grabbing moves to create the air of success, we can all shake our heads and rest comfortably. So long as the Packers maintain the humble, organization-first discipline established under Harlan’s watch, they will keep winning more often than just about everyone else.