“An organisation is only as strong as its people.” – Richard Branson

The NFL Draft can make or break a franchise. Firstly, every team wants to draft the next Aaron Rodgers, a franchise cornerstone who’ll go on to become the identity of the team. Equally as important, nobody wants to whiff on their prime opportunity by drafting a bust, but history is littered with cringe inducing names like Eric Fisher, Trent Richardson and Johnny Manziel. And lastly, oh to be the lucky team to hit the lottery with the next Tom Brady or Antonio Brown, that MVP calibre talent buried deep in the later rounds; the diamond in the rough.

A top 10 draft pick in the NFL has the potential to induct a generational talent into a franchise; potentially turning around fortunes completely. This year we saw four Quarterbacks drafted in the top 10, and a smattering across other positions, but is drafting a Quarterback really the most reliable way to improve a struggling franchise, or should a team focus on the offensive line? Maybe the defense? Or just go for the best player available?

I understand that this is a very loaded question, as there are numerous factors to consider: Who are the top talents in the particular year’s draft class? Is one position shallower or deeper than usual that year? What are the actual current needs of the franchise? Or maybe it’s the hometown hero that’ll bring in spectators. There is a whole industry dedicated to analytics, scouting & research for this very reason. The best available player might not be the best pick for the teams particular situation.

Let’s tackle this question today. (pun intended, I’m so hilarious)

I recently read, with great interest, a post on reddit by CandyAndy9891 “What Happened to Teams After they Drafted a RB Top-10 Since 2000”. CandyAndy9891 goes into a lot of detail about the average improvement in teams that used their top 10 draft pick on a Running Back.

Courtesy of reddit.com.

Through a sample size of 18 years and 15 Rookie Top 10 RBs, teams improved an average of 3.6 wins and +44 total point differential the following season

One might argue, “But Derek, look at some of the names on that list. Adrian Peterson! LaDainian Tomlinson! Those are Hall of Fame talents, they are skewing the figures”.

I agree with you to a point. Of those 15 RBs , many are Pro-Bowl/Hall of Fame tier talents. But what is wrong with that? If a top 10 draft pick is anything less than a valuable starter, I’d argue they’re a bust. The benchmark should be trying to draft Pro-Bowl talent if you’re picking #1-10.

This got me thinking, if a top flight Running Back makes such a significant difference, how does picking any other position improve a team? And here are the numbers;

Courtesy of reddit.com.

Since 2000, we’ve got enough of a sample size at most positions to be able to make a broad analysis.

Over 18 years, teams with a top 10 pick had an average win improvement of +1.97 wins the following season



Top 10 Rookie Running Back and Tackle prospects are the safest way to immediately improve your team, with an average of +3.53 wins and +3.19 wins respectively



The best defensive prospect to lift your team out of the dumps is a Defensive End, with top rookie DE’s helping improve their team +2.50 wins since 2000.



Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers are the most common Top 10 picks since 2000, with 28 selections. In terms of immediate win improvement QBs fare much better than WRs, at +2.36 vs +1.43



Teams that spent a top 10 pick on a Linebacker and Outside Linebacker statistically experienced the smallest change in wins improvement, at +0.23 wins across 17 picks.



Guards, Tight Ends, Cornerbacks and Safeties are rarely picked in the top 10, with 6 prospects combined in the last 18 years

Again, I want to reiterate that this is just painting very broad strokes. There are any number of reasons why a team was better or worse the following year, even with a top 10 draft pick. However, the data does tend to suggest that struggling teams who invest in Offensive Line improvements or a top flight Running Back usually get to eat more Ws.

On that note, I want to have a quick look at 3 of the 2018 Top 10 picks, whether I believe their team will improve this year, and why.

SAQUON BARKLEY, RUNNING BACK

PICK #2 , NEW YORK GIANTS

2017 RECORD 3-13

Before we even talk about Barkley, we need to acknowledge that it is highly likely the G Men improve on last year even before adding the most exciting RB prospect since Ezekiel Elliott. Where is there to go but up when you get rid of Bob McAdoo AND get back Odell Beckham?

Empirical evidence shows that teams with a top 10 RB improve +3.53 wins. 6-7 Wins for NYG is easily within reach. The constant threat of Barkley doing baller moves like this will finally help balance a Giants offense that has historically really struggled with the run. Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepherd and Evan Engram will get some much-needed help and I’m expecting a significant positive improvement in wins for NYG.

BRADLEY CHUBB, DEFENSIVE END

PICK #5, DENVER BRONCOS

2017 RECORD 5-11

I’ve been saying it since draft day, Chubb at #5 was an absolute steal for Denver. Von Miller’s reaction says it all.

Empirical evidence shows that teams with a top 10 DE improve +2.50 wins. I think 7-8 wins is definitely within reach for Denver. That however may be much more likely due to improvements around Chubb, rather than because of him.

Royce Freeman, Chubbs 3rd Round 2018 classmate is impressing so far, and should improve Denvers at times anaemic running game. Case Keenum should be a HUGE upgrade from Paxton Lynch/Trevor Siemian/Brock Osweiler. If everything clicks, grabbing Chubb (who I believe will be a Defensive ROTY in our AFC Preseason Power Rankings will be a piece of the puzzle towards getting Denver back to relevance.

JOSH ROSEN, QUARTERBACK

PICK #10, ARIZONA CARDINALS

2017 RECORD 8-8

Arizona have been outspoken in their support for Rosen, and desire to bring him along slowly. I’m actually expecting the Cardinals to struggle this season, but if they do improve upon last years 8-8 record it will be because of David Johnson.

Empirical evidence shows that teams with a top 10 QB improve +2.36 wins. 2017’s 8-8 with Blaine Gabbert and Kerwynn Williams was already an overachievement. Granted, getting back arguably the best Running Back in the NFL should make things a bit easier. With new Head Coach Steve Wilks and interim Quarterback Sam Bradford, this should be an N/A but if I had to bet my money is on the Cardinals bucking the trend and winning < 8 games.