A government which has been at war with its own people and siphoned off vast sums looks set to return to power in dubious circumstances. The world ought not let an election be stolen

The Democratic Republic of the Congo has never had a peaceful, democratic transition of power since independence from Belgium in 1960. It had been hoped that the long-delayed election this weekend would, in that regard, make history and enable the vast central African country to move on from the bloody divisions of the past. The omens are not good that such a future beckons. This week security forces killed at least seven opposition supporters and wounded more than 50 people. Elections do offer outsiders a chance to draw back the veil on DRC and question how some of its vast natural wealth, valued at $24tn, has seemed to trickle into the bank accounts of those in power while the rest of the nation’s 80 million people remain in crushing poverty.

The country is a mess and the current government is responsible for the disarray. Human rights groups accuse the government of being at war with its own people, with security forces and armed groups having killed thousands of civilians in the past two years. At least the election ought to see the back of President Joseph Kabila, a strongman who has locked up critics and crushed protests. The constitution required Mr Kabila to step down in 2016 but he stayed on for two more years. He only conceded an election when regional powers pressed for him to go. It also helped that the United States threatened to sanction members of Mr Kabila’s family. However, his appointed successor, Emmanuel Shadary, remains under European Union sanctions for serious human rights violations. Sadly for DRC, Mr Shadary will probably win the presidential race because the opposition have split.

Apart from victory, Mr Kabila’s objective was to avoid outside scrutiny and negative headlines. True, DRC is no longer at the centre of a regional war, which 20 years ago led to 4 million deaths and appalling levels of sexual violence. However, the country faces a humanitarian crisis today, with 3.5 million people internally displaced and Ebola raging in its east. Mr Kabila’s response is denial. He also refused to accept foreign funding to help foot the $1bn bill for elections over the next two years because the cash comes with UN oversight. He has not accredited western election observers to supplement African ones.

What could Mr Kabila and his cronies have to hide? Well, for a start the avarice, poor governance and infighting over the country’s wealth. Last week the Congolese Nobel laureate Denis Mukwege – who shared the 2018 peace prize for his campaign against sexual violence – warned of this weekend’s polls that “there is very little electoral preparation and a lot of military preparation. I am very worried that these elections will not be free, fair, credible and peaceful and that if there are massive frauds … supporters (from losing candidates) will not accept them”. The world should be prepared to call out a fraudulently elected government. To do otherwise would let down the people of DRC, whom the world has disappointed too many times.