11.01am BST

Full steam ahead Lisbon! What a great time it is to be a Manchester United fan. The pressure's off in the league, they're embarking on an exciting new period with a new manager and they're in the quarter-final of the Champions League. Four more matches – four measly little matches – and they could be in the final, the chance to win Europe's most prestigious competition for the fourth time within their grasp. All they've got to do first is beat Bayern Munich and sure, it'll be tough against the all-conquering side that wrapped up the Bundesliga title before the clocks went forward, but United are coming into this bang in form, a 4-1 thumping of Aston Villa on the weekend the perfect way for them to warm up for this tie. Whodaman? David Moyes is a man! What a terrific time to be alive. Bayern won't know what's hit 'em but let me tell you something: David Moyes's Manchester United are about to hit 'em and they're gonna hit 'em good, right in the kisser if performances this season are anything to go by.

And now we've got all that out the way, it's time to return to reality, where the situation is rather more bleak for United. Indeed tonight might be the last time they see Champions League football at Old Trafford for a while. United aren't going to be qualifying for next season's competition via the league, that much is clear, and it is going to take the kind of stubbornness, togetherness and outrageous fortune that served Chelsea so well in 2012 for them to win it this year. If Moyes suddenly manages to strike a balance between defence and tactic, if David de Gea can be cloned, if Marouane Fellaini separates his arse from his elbow, if Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic are hypnotised into thinking it's 2008 and Wayne Rooney is told it's it's 2004, then maybe United can make a good fist of this. But the smart money is on this tie being over after the first leg. Bayern, the European champions, are surely too good for this not to be yet another ordeal for United in this season of ordeals.

In fairness, United have been putting on a brave face during the build-up. It's mostly for the sake of appearances, but still. Ryan Giggs, displaying the utter abhorrence of mediocrity that Moyes could do with developing sharpish, has given off the impression that he does not know the meaning of the word underdog. Fear is there to be embraced, used to your advantage and turned into positive energy.

Meanwhile Arjen Robben, Bayern's brilliant Dutchman and the scorer of the goal that won them the trophy last year, has urged caution. United still command respect, despite it all, and the danger of writing them off is that in the back of your mind, the fear's still there, waiting to come out, waiting to make us all look stupid. This is Manchester United we're talking about and that still counts for something. The muscle memory is still there. It has to count for something.

Or does it? The evidence of this season suggests otherwise. Other than when they beat Arsenal at Old Trafford, United have been embarrassed by every proper side they have faced. Liverpool won 3-0 at Old Trafford and so did City last week. The defeat to City was particularly chastening. All that talk in the build-up that United may be getting back to business after beating Olympiakos was turned to dust inside 43 seconds. It was like watching Manny Pacquiao versus Ricky Hatton in 2009; one punch to their glass jaw and United were out cold. It was just so easy for both City and Liverpool and with that in mind, what will this formidable Bayern side, with their brand of tik-und-takenberg, do to them? United are 6-1 to win tonight. They have never had longer odds to win at home. Their fans, those of them not gadding about ordering ridiculous fly-by banners, are dreading this, fully prepared to watch the full 90-minute torture through their fingers. United have never lost a European tie at home by more than one goal but, in honour of that balmy night in Barcelona, it is always tempting to Bayern to win this 1999-0.

In a strange way, that gallows humour could work to United's advantage. There have been signs of a siege mentality developing at Old Trafford in recent weeks and there is almost the feeling of an FA Cup third-round tie to this match, United the unlikely but plucky underdogs who must scrap, fight and JUST GET IN BAYERN'S FACE BECAUSE THESE FAHKIN' FORRINERS WON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO THEN. For one night only, Manchester on a Tuesday night must become Stoke on a Tuesday night. Does Moyes know any good rain dances? It's the least you'd expect from The Chosen One.

Kick-off: 7.45pm.

