Kumar’s observations involve a both qualitative and quantitative change compared to his earlier prediction for the BJP.

In another article in The Asian Age, written exactly a week before this piece, Kumar had argued that it is “advantage BJP”. Within just a week, “advantage BJP ” has changed into “disadvantage BJP” albeit with a question mark at the end.

In terms of seats, let’s compare Kumar’s prediction to the CSDS’ last survey.

In the survey, released just a few days before the first phase of polling on 11 April, CSDS predicted that the BJP could win 32-40 out of Uttar Pradesh’s 80 seats, that is around 40-50 percent of the seats in UP. But in his article on 13 April, Kumar predicts that BJP could lose six out of eight seats in the first phase. If this trend continues in the subsequent phases, the BJP’s tally could end up with a tally of 20-25 seats.