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Shaker said builders are already scaling back condo construction. In the first nine months of 2014, builders began 1,100 units. During the same period this year, only 700 were completed.

It wasn’t all bad news from CMHC on Thursday. Despite the fact that the average price of a home in Ottawa has continued to march upwards even while average salaries have stalled, people are still buying houses. The average price of a residential property in Ottawa in 2015 is expected to be around $368,000, according to Shaker. She expects that to increase to $376,000 in 2016 and $385,000 in 2017.

The housing analyst said the overall number of new homes built will likely rise slightly in 2016, with row houses and townhouses accounting for most of the increase.

Ottawa’s resale housing market for residential homes is stable and balanced, Shaker said, largely because, on average, resale homes are cheaper to buy. A single detached home on the resale market is $86,029 cheaper than a comparable home bought new, she said.

More than 50 per cent of resale homes listed on the Multiple Listing Service are selling, which is a sign of a balanced and healthy market, Shaker said.

CMHC also warned that interest rates might finally rise in 2017 as the economies of the U.S. and much of Asia pick up steam. Ted Tsiakopoulos, Ontario regional economist for CMHC, said the increased rates, coupled with the province’s sluggish economy, will likely further slow the pace of housing sales. However, Tsiakopoulos said the trend CMHC is now seeing is in renovations to existing homes. Instead of looking for a house to move to, an increasing number of Ontarians are choosing to renovate their existing dwelling.

“Ontario’s economy, while it has regained some of its lost momentum, the economy isn’t growing,” he said. “We are bullish on the renovation and resale markets. Renovation spending has been nothing short of exceptional.”

Provincially, 2015 has been a record year for resale homes, according to Tsiakopoulos.

vpilieci@ottawacitizen.com