Bachelorette for Nerds

Week 2

First off, I want to thank those of you who read my inaugural blog last week. I’m glad there is a subset of this fan base who enjoys reading a more numerical approach to analyses on The Bachelorette, but now I have more pressure to actually do a good job writing and whatnot. While I did write a pretty hefty piece last week defining the Bachelorette Success Rating (BSR), I’m not sure I explained the statistic well enough along with my rules for it, so I’ll try to accomplish that before I dive into this week’s analysis.

BSR Components

Like I said last week, a more positive BSR is good for a contestant while a more negative one is bad. But what exactly makes the BSR positive or negative? There are several attributes I look for in a contestant that I believe determines their success (or longevity) on The Bachelorette. Each attribute is weighted to how I see fit for that particular week. With that said, the BSR is a dynamic statistic that changes week-to-week based on my own intuition. Given that I am still very new to the idiosyncrasies of The Bachelorette, my intuition is destined to be wrong on occasion; this will ideally get better with time.

For this week, I had five active attributes (weighted in decreasing order): attractiveness, wild card, personality, age and preRoses (roses before the Rose Ceremony). Attractiveness is based on an average of the opinions of several of my female friends; as the weeks go on, attractiveness will not (and should not) play a big factor in determining BSR. Wild card is the potential for a contestant to do something (good or bad) that will attract viewers; this can be getting in a physical altercation with another contestant or getting physically intimate with Hannah B. Personality will eventually become more significant, but it’s hard to tell this early in the show. Age is how close someone is to the average contestant age; the current average is 27.00 years old, so contestants within a standard deviation are rewarded a slight boost to their BSR while those outside a standard deviation are given a small penalty. The preRose attribute will become important, but it is relatively insignificant because it would otherwise aggressively skew the board (I mean, Tyler G.’s great, but not THAT great). Each attribute is normalized and weighted accordingly to sum up to the BSR.

BSR Rules

After each episode, I will play around with the values and weights for each attribute and contestant. If I make any changes during the episode, it will be updated for next week’s BSR. For example, any changes I made to the BSR during the airing of episode two will not affect the BSR for week two, but rather week three. This is to maintain validity and avoid massaging the statistic during the episode to make it agree with who is leaving that week. If I update the BSR just prior to the next episode, I will post the key changes in the comments of the previous week’s blog.

BSR Performance This Week

Pre-Episode 2 BSR Scoreboard. All values shown (except preRose) are in their normalized form. This was set before the episode aired.

For the record, I did say it would take a couple weeks to get the BSR to begin predicting success. Still, 0-for-3 is never good. This puts me at 3-for-11 (.273) on the season, a batting average that would (barely) put me in the MLB Top-40.

Predictions for Next Week

Post-Episode 2 BSR Scoreboard. All values shown (except preRose) are in their normalized form.

Luke P. is still toward the top because he is an interesting character to watch, regardless if his actions are with Hannah B. or with the other contestants. However, to put it cosmically, a star that’s twice as bright burns half as long.

Tyler G. got the 1-on-1 and ultimately a preRose. This gives him a much-needed slight boost amongst the bottom of the group, but he seems very boring. I feel like the rose he received from Hannah B. was more for being a nice guy rather than for being a serious contender. I also believe Dustin’s preRose was earned with similar sentiments.

Cam was awkward, aggressively inconsiderate and extremely cringe. He is hiding behind this façade of innocence when he’s just being a jerk. If he wanted to be bold and confident during the group date, he should’ve tried to show up at the roller derby and participate in a tough, physical event rather than steal Hannah B. at rude times. He’s been trying to live by his cute adorable ABC mantra “Always Be Cam,” but it seems like he’s actually practicing a slightly different ABC: “Always Be Crazy.”

I still believe the next to go are Joey, Dylan and Devin barring a surprising 1-on-1 next week. I don’t think they are bad people, but I also don’t think they are competitive. Dustin was able to separate himself from the group, so we’ll see if any of those three will do the same.