2012 House and Senate candidates released campaign finance reports this week. | AP Photos 2012 races: Who's in the money?

Money talks — and the big batch of campaign finance reports released this week spoke very loudly about how the 2012 elections are shaping up.

The figures offer clues about the state of play in upcoming House and Senate races, including who’s headed for the exits, who’s got enough cash to topple an incumbent and which long-serving members are bracing for a fight by stockpiling cash to help defend their seats.


Here’s what POLITICO learned from the second-quarter Federal Election Commission numbers.

All bark, no bite



Wisconsin Democrat Rob Zerban has been given the red carpet treatment — with liberal groups and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee heralding him as a challenger who can give House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan a real fight. Zerban has sought to amp up the excitement surrounding his candidacy, promising that he would deliver “a big number” as the quarter wound down.

But when that number turned out to be an underwhelming $220,000 — more than half of which came out of his own pocket — it was pittance compared with Ryan’s mammoth $900,000 haul.

On the GOP side, two Senate hopefuls also failed to clear the expectations bar: Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning, who raked in just $334,000 — a significant drop-off from his opening quarter — and Florida state Rep. Adam Hasner, who has received the accolades of national conservative luminaries like Hugh Hewitt and Mark Levin, but who managed to raise just $560,000, good enough for third place in the race to challenge Sen. Bill Nelson.

Neither figure is abysmal, but for two rising stars who still have to clear their respective primary fields before they can set their sights on the bigger prize, neither is exactly impressive.

Freshman fumblers



House GOP officials have plenty of freshmen to worry about.

Sure, Florida Rep. Allen West raised $1.5 million and Illinois Rep. Bob Dold notched $540,000.

But for every West or Dold, there’s a Dan Webster, the freshman Florida Republican who raised just $116,000 after taking in an anemic $30,000 last quarter.

Illinois Rep. Bobby Schilling, the Moline pizzeria owner, raised an unimpressive $213,000 despite being drawn into a Democratic-friendly seat and already attracting a handful of Democratic foes. Republican Jon Runyan, the Philadelphia Eagles offensive tackle-turned-New Jersey congressman, raised just $149,000 — though he’ll likely need much more to defend his seat in a district that only slightly favors his party.

There’s particular reason for concern for several newbies. New York Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle raised just $121,000 after taking in a paltry $65,000 in the first quarter. It’s a weak haul for a first-term congresswoman who occupies a Democratic-leaning, Syracuse-area seat that could become less hospitable after redistricting.

Arizona Rep. Paul Gosar, who took in $170,000, was outraised by former Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, his ousted 2010 foe who is running to reclaim the seat.

The Twilight Zone



For some longtime lawmakers, their cash hauls — or lack thereof — will only fuel speculation that they’re heading for the exits.

Florida Rep. Bill Young, the longest-serving House Republican, has yet to announce whether he plans to run for reelection. But the $8,700 might say it all. It’s a drop in the bucket for a 21-term member whose Pinellas County-based district only leans slightly Republican.

California Rep. Elton Gallegly took in just $82,000. The 13-term Republican faces a complicated path to reelection due to redistricting — under a new draft map, he’s paired in a Los Angeles-area seat with powerful House Armed Services Committee Chairman Buck McKeon — and his fundraising does little to indicate that he’s preparing for a tough race.

Democratic Rep. Brad Miller raised just $93,000 — hardly enough to save him in his newly redrawn, GOP-oriented North Carolina district that is attracting a growing line of Republican opponents.

And Texas Rep. Ruben Hinojosa, a Democrat who’s facing scrutiny over his personal finances, raised just $17,000 after taking in less than $8,000 during the first quarter — remarkably flimsy numbers for an eight-term veteran.

Border patrol



Some members made newly vulnerable by redistricting are wasting little time to build cash reserves.

GOP Rep. Tom Latham is quickly amassing a cash cache for his race against Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell in a southern Iowa district. Latham, an appropriations cardinal who has a close relationship with House Speaker John Boehner, raised more than $580,000 in the second quarter — and that’s on top of a $400,000 first-quarter total. Latham’s haul of roughly $1 million during the first six months of the year far outpaces the $300,000 or so he had raised at the same point in the 2010 campaign.

Louisiana Rep. Charles Boustany, who’s been drawn into the same district as GOP Rep. Jeff Landry, raised an impressive $474,000. The $719,000 Boustany has raked in this year almost doubles the figure he raised during the first two quarters in the last election.

Then there’s Dold, whose suburban Chicago district has become hostile territory for a Republican due to Democratic-led redistricting. The Illinois Republican raked in $541,000 — the second-highest total of any House GOP freshman — bringing Dold to nearly $1 million raised over the course of the year.

The endangered senators

Each of the Senate’s three most-endangered incumbents easily outraised their chief rivals, denying them the kind of headlines underdogs feed on to stoke momentum.

Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch and Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar — two Republicans facing potentially serious primary challenges — and Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson, easily the Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbent, all lapped their opponents by at least a 3-to-1 margin.

Rep. Jason Chaffetz says he’s “very much leaning” toward an intra-party challenge to the six-term Hatch, but his weak $124,000 quarter indicates he hasn’t yet greased the fundraising wheels. Hatch, on the other hand, set a Utah quarterly record, taking in $1.3 million.

Lugar stockpiled an additional $900,000 — tripling State Treasurer Richard Mourdock’s tally and bolstering a formidable war chest that now stands at $3.5 million. Even more troubling for Mourdock: He has just $213,000 left.

While Nelson has lagged in polling, his cash flow doesn’t seem to have dried up. He reported $2.9 million on hand — more than the $1.3 million Bruning has in the bank.

This trio remains under the gun, but each appears to be acknowledging the writing on the wall and establishing an early resource advantage that could quash some of the buzz that they are dead men walking.

Neck and neck

In the most highly anticipated Senate contests, the second-quarter filings revealed striking parity between the heavyweight contenders.

Tim Kaine’s party-leading $2.25 million debut quarter in Virginia handed him an estimated $100,000 cash on hand advantage over Republican George Allen, who had a full quarter head start.

In Nevada, seven-term Rep. Shelley Berkley bested Sen. Dean Heller by just $200,000 in amounts raised and money banked.

And while Montana Sen. Jon Tester continues to outpace GOP Rep. Denny Rehber, the difference is smaller than the one Tester himself overcame to land the seat. At this same point in 2005, then Sen. Conrad Burns had $3.2 million in the bank to Tester’s $57,689.

Expect outside groups like American Crossroads and Majority PAC to dive into these states, attempting to make up for any widening monetary rifts.

Bombast and money blasts



If the quarter proved anything, it was the age-old axiom that it pays to be controversial.

As noted, West — the Palm Beach-area tea party darling who called President Barack Obama a “socialist agitator” — raked in an astonishing $1.5 million, more than any House GOP freshman and among the highest totals of either party.

Democrat Alan Grayson, the smashmouth former congressman who during his two-year House tenure accused Republicans of backing a health care plan that amounted to asking sick people to “die quickly,” raised $100,000 during the first six months of the year. Never mind that it was only this week that he announced he would be waging another campaign.

Nevada Republican Sharron Angle, the tea party-aligned former foe to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, announced a little more than midway through the quarter that she was abandoning her congressional bid — but she still raised a respectable $386,000.

Those running against the bomb throwers also were indirect beneficiaries. Florida Democrats Lois Frankel and Patrick Murphy — both running against West — raised more than $400,000 each, emerging as two of the highest party challengers in the country.