Take a good look at the list of past champions at Royal Birkdale: Peter Thomson (twice), Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Johnny Miller, Tom Watson, Ian Baker-Finch, Mark O'Meara, Padraig Harrington.

With all due respect, there's not a Todd Hamilton or Ben Curtis in sight. Only great golfers or players who are near the very top of the game at the time win The Open here, and it's why the pros all love Birkdale: it's tough, but fair, and it produces great champions.

If Tiger Woods were here, and fit, he'd be right at the top of the tree. But he's not.

Rory McIlroy tees it up at Royal Birkdale but he is in poor form heading into The Open

Despite the proliferation of major winners in the post-Tiger era (it's here, sadly) and the increasingly tough task of picking a winner of any of the four big tournaments, it's tough to see outside the world's elite this week. That means good odds for a large number of elite players, so it is wise to pay close attention to the top of the world golf rankings, and past major champions in the field.

There's one name that leaps out from the top 10 as perfect for Birkdale: Sergio Garcia (20-1). The Masters champion has 10 top-10 finishes in the Open Championship, so he's a real lover of links. His shot-making flair, learned with relish from his Spanish heroes Jose Maria Olazabal and Seve Ballesteros, marks him out from the other power hitters who prefer to tee it high and let it fly. His long but accurate driving has few equals, and that is key at Birkdale. Get out of position here and there's a world of hurt lurking in the fescue off the fairways.

There are question marks over Garcia: is he distracted by his wedding next week? Is his putting reliable enough to win? And can he win the Masters and The Open in the same year? The answers seem simple: Garcia says the wedding is not distracting him, and this is the tournament he most wants to win; his putting was good enough to earn him the green jacket; and both Woods and O'Meara have managed the Masters/Open double in the last 20 years.

So how about the rest of the best? There's no doubt that any of the top eight players in the world have the games to triumph, so let's take them in order of their ranking.

Dustin Johnson (16-1), looks undercooked having not played competitively since missing the cut at the US Open, and there are still question marks over the world No 1's back that he injured at the Masters.

Hideki Matsuyama (22-1) is mightily tempting. His ball-striking is a wonder, his form is good after finishing second at the US Open and a nice top-15 warm-up on the links at Portstewart, and he was sixth at Muirfield in 2013, another tough but fair links loved by the pros. His weakness is stark, however: he is surely the streakiest putter of all the top 10.

Jordan Spieth (16-1) won his last tournament and possesses the temperament and the cunning to plot his way to victory here. After a blip, the 23-year-old Texan could put himself on track for greatness again. But there are doubts over his driving accuracy and that will be crucial amid the towering dunes that frame Birkdale's holes and create funky lies among thick grass.

Sergio Garcia, with fiancee Angela Akins, is loving life and could be the man to beat

Rory McIlroy (22-1) has four majors but seems to have lost all control of his wedges. Put simply, if that continues here, he has no chance.

After Garcia comes Jason Day (40-1), who has been a shadow of himself this year as he deals with his mother's serious illness and, possibly, injuries. His price is enormous for such a talent – and could be tempting despite two missed cuts in his last two outings.

Jon Rahm (18-1) is taking the game by storm in his maiden season as a professional and could overtake Spieth as the heir to Tiger with victory here. Do not rule it out – he blew away the field in Ireland a fortnight ago with his mixture of power hitting, silky touch and dead-eyed putting. His short fuse and inexperience are real hindrances, however.

Henrik Stenson (33-1) admits his long game is in a mess, and that was the bedrock of his stunning win at Royal Troon last year. Without it, he is in big trouble.

Alex Noren (55-1) has more wins (five) than anyone bar Johnson in the last two years and when he's hot, he's seriously hot, as he proved in winning at Wentworth in May. There is still a huge question mark over his record in majors, however, with just one top-10 at Lytham in 2012.

The 10th-ranked player, Rickie Fowler (16-1), is one that really catches the eye. A former Scottish Open champion who enjoyed another decent links warm-up at Dundonald last week, the flamboyant American is another shot-maker who looks like he has more ammunition compared with some of his fellow big hitters. Two Open top-10s, at Royal St George's in 2011 and Hoylake in 2014, showed his class and he looked the man to beat at the US Open before a quiet weekend.

Arguably Fowler is the best player yet to win a major and his sometimes wild driving can be made up for with his nerveless putting, which only Spieth can really rival. He'll be licking his lips at the relatively flat greens, similar to those at Hoylake which are also largely free of huge undulations.

Matt Kuchar discovers that trouble lurks off the fairways at Birkdale

Among the other players of serious pedigree, US Open champion Brooks Koepka (40-1) has plenty to prove that he has the finesse to cope with links golf to go with the awesome power that helped tame Erin Hills.

Masters champion of 2013 Adam Scott (30-1) is among the players who wants this tournament more than any other and he came so close up the coast at Lytham in 2012, but has somewhat lost his mojo this year.

But it is hard not to fancy Justin Rose (20-1) to continue his romance with Birkdale after that unforgettable hole-out as a teenager in 2008. His poor Open record since is a mystery, but his brilliance is not in question. His all-round game will go far in an Open soon, and Birkdale looks exactly the right course for him.

Rose's Ryder Cup sparring partner Phil Mickelson (50-1) is priced ridiculously high for this tournament, thanks mainly to a quiet year and no wins since his triumph at Muirfield. With the weather forecast favourable this week and on this set-up, Lefty could make up for missing out last year and also on the US Open, due to his daughter's high-school graduation. With time running out at the age of 47, he is only interested in majors and is still striking the ball well.

But then, of course, this could be the tournament where someone makes a name for themselves and writes the opening chapter in their story. No-one would like you to believe that more than Bryson DeChambeau (175-1), the quirky physics graduate who won on the PGA Tour just last week and thinks his scientific approach will revolutionise golf. On his first Open outing, a C-minus is more likely than an A-star for someone who appears to get a little ahead of himself.

Thomas Pieters - a talented outsider - hits out of an island in a bunker on the 7th hole

Instead, it is Justin Thomas (70-1) who heads the queue of young guns ready to make their mark on the game, just ahead of local hero Tommy Fleetwood (25-1). Both have won big this year and are long drivers. Thomas Pieters (66-1) looks the best player of the lot when he's on song, but is wildly unpredictable – so perhaps perfect for an outside each-way punt.

His fellow Ryder Cup star Patrick Reed (66-1) also appears just too wild – in his case with the driver – so Paul Casey (40-1) is a better bet, despite his pretty awful Open record for such a fine player. Better to look at his 7th place at Birkdale in 2008 and his strong showings in majors this year. Branden Grace's (55-1) low ball-flight and apprenticeship at Fancourt Links also serve him well, despite his worst major record coming at The Open.

And don't count out some of the old hands. Lee Westwood (80-1) has come so close in this tournament on too many occasions to mention, but he has the nous and ball-striking consistency to navigate major championship set-ups. The last winner here, Padraig Harrington (66-1) showed glimpses of his genius last week in Scotland and looks to be shaping up well. So too Ian Poulter (80-1), who was second to Harrington nine years ago.

The chances of a real outsider look remote on this wonderful course, but that's not to say someone can't have the week of their life and post a high finish. In which case, how about Wesley Bryan (250-1), a trick-shot star whose nimble hands could come into their own in links golf, or Andrew Dodt (300-1), the little-know Aussie who's enjoyed good weeks in both Ireland and Scotland? Then there's Matt Southgate (300-1), who also played well in Ireland, who could enjoy a fairytale finish after recovering from cancer.

* All odds are correct and best available at time of publication

