Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Indians. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Braves / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Orioles / Padres / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Red Sox / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / Twins / White Sox / Yankees.

Batters

If you’re like the author, you’re hirsute in a way that make pets and small children demonstrably uncomfortable. You’re also a bit surprised by the competence of the Indians offense entering 2013. No Cleveland field player posted better than a 3.4 WAR in 2012; in fact, there are three players here — Carlos Santana (4.4), Michael Bourn (4.0), and Asdrubal Cabrera (3.7) — projected to surpass last year’s team-high mark. Six other players are forecast to post something between a 2.0 and 3.0 WAR.

A thing to note: both Michael Brantley and Drew Stubbs are projected as center fielders, where each spent the majority of 2012 defensively. Moving to the corners won’t affect their individual WAR projections, likely, but does mean that what they lose in runs to positional adjustment, they’re likely to regain in terms of runs saved afield. If we say that Brantley and Stubbs are roughly average center fielders, then it’s also fair to say they’re likely to save something like +10 runs defensively in either left or right field.

Pitchers

With regard to the Cleveland rotation, the author defers to SB Nation’s Grant Brisbee, who offered the following Precision Analysis shortly after inspecting the depth chart included further down in this post.

@cistulli @dszymborskiSay, that’s pretty good, and OH GOD NO NO NO THE ROTATION NO NO NO — Grant Brisbee (@mccoveychron) February 14, 2013

So far as the bullpen is concerned, Cleveland has a few reliable high-leverage arms in Chris Perez, Vinnie Pestano, and Joe Smith. After that triumvirate, however, the options are unclear. Left-hander Rich Hill, whom the club signed last week, has managed only 31.2 major-league innings since 2010, but has been quite good during them, striking out 36 batters. No other pitcher besides the four just mentioned receives a park-adjusted ERA or FIP projection better than league average.

Bench/Prospects

Outfielder Ezequiel Carrera enters his age-26 season — and, while his offensive ceiling is probably limited, ZiPS suggests that he defends and runs well enough to produce something not unlike an average major-league season. Twice ranked (in 2008 and -09) among the game’s top-30 prospects by Baseball America, a now 28-year-old Matt LaPorta enters the season with a career line of .238/.301/.393 (.276 BABIP) in 1068 major-league plate appearances. Nor does ZiPS forecast any sort of great departure from that level in 2013.

Depth Chart

Here’s a rough depth chart for the Indians, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.