Zombie outbreak? Leave S.F. fast, say scientists

Peeling skin, unhealed wounds, creepy penetrating eyes and a slow, staggering gait are sure signs of zombie infection. Peeling skin, unhealed wounds, creepy penetrating eyes and a slow, staggering gait are sure signs of zombie infection. Image 1 of / 23 Caption Close Zombie outbreak? Leave S.F. fast, say scientists 1 / 23 Back to Gallery

Thanks to Cornell University researchers, the world can now predict how fast a zombie outbreak

would spread from a single undead person.

Using data from the 2010 U.S. census and the SIR model, an epidemiological tool that can project the progress of actual infectious diseases, the scientists created "large-scale exact stochastic dynamical simulation" of a such an outbreak. Their findings were to be presented Thursday to the august American Physical Society.

The results won't surprise "The Walking Dead" fans. They're well aware that if you live in a major city when zombie plague strikes, you'll soon be gnawing on your neighbors.

But just to see how fast San Francisco and California would succumb, we decided to place an undead Patient Zero in the city and watch what happens using the simulation's nifty interaction tool.



Cornell's hypothetical 48-hour zombie outbreak model. (Courtesy of Alexander A. Alemi/Cornell University)

Using Cornell researchers' recommended variable of a 0.8 bite-to-kill ratio (you can read more about that here), most of San Francisco is infected in less than a day.

Within 36 hours, zombies have staggered across the Bay Bridge or through the BART tunnel to the East Bay. To the north, Mill Valley goes down without much of a fight, and it's only a matter time before Napa and Sonoma wine tasting gives way to brain tasting.

By day two, Mark Zuckerberg in Menlo Park and the Google guys in Mountain View are undead, and you can probably forget about the new Apple Watch you were waiting for from Cupertino. Its rollout is going to be delayed. Indefinitely.

It takes about a week for wandering zombies to chomp what few skiers remain in Tahoe.

After a month, L.A. is still standing, but for how long? Zombie hordes have overrun Fresno, Visalia and Bakersfield.

So when zombie apocalypse does hit, the lesson is to get the hell out of whatever major metropolitan center you live in. But where should you go?

The simulation suggests Montana and Idaho. (No wonder so many survivalists live there!) It

would take months for the undead show up in the Northern Rockies.

San Franciscans might want to head to the closer Great Basin in Nevada, also not a big destination spot for zombies.

For this useful travel information we owe much to the computer simulation whizzes at Cornell, who have demonstrated that important Ivy League-level research need not be too serious.