Early action on Thanksgiving has already shaken up the NFL standings, with the Cowboys taking the lead in the NFC East and the Saints and Bears holding serve in their respective divisions. And the Week 12 NFL odds indicate several other division leaders are looking at tight matchups. The Steelers are three-point favorites on the road at Denver, while the Texans are favored by four against the Titans on Monday Night Football, down from an open of 5.5 after it was reported that Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota (neck) will start. And in one of the tightest NFL spreads of the week, the Bengals, who will once again be without wide receiver AJ Green (toe), are favored by one against the Browns. With five division races still up in the air, and NFL odds moving, be sure to check out the top Week 12 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine's proven model before laying any plays of your own.

SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 12 on a blistering 12-0 run. For the season, it is now 26-9 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 74-43. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 105-53 this season, again ranking in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Anybody who has been following it is way, way up.

Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and spreads, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 12 NFL picks are in.

One of the top Week 12 NFL picks the model loves: the Seahawks cover (+3.5) on the road at Carolina.

The Rams have taken a commanding lead in the NFC West, but the Seahawks (5-5) stayed afloat in the NFC Wild Card race with their huge win over the Packers last week. Now they meet up with the Panthers as the teams compete for playoff position.

According to the model, Russell Wilson throws for almost 250 yards, while Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny and the rest of Seattle's backs pile up over 100 combined yards on the ground as the Seahawks cover in over 60 percent of simulations. You can confidently back the Over (47) as well because it hits in more than half of simulations.

Another one of the top Week 12 NFL predictions from the model: the Jets (+11) cover at home against the Patriots.

The line has moved two points in New England's favor after it was revealed that Jets quarterback Sam Darnold will miss the game with a foot injury. Instead, journeyman Josh McCown will start after throwing for 135 yards and two interceptions last week against the Bills.

But New England has plenty of injury concerns of its own, as Rob Gronkowski (ankle/back), Sony Michel (knee) and Tom Brady (knee) have all been limited in practice this week. All three are expected to play on Sunday, but how effective they'll be remains to be seen. The model finds plenty of value on the Jets with the points in this matchup, as they cover the spread in over 55 percent of simulations. The Over (46.5) also hits 58 percent of the time.

The model has has a strong pick for the AFC battle between the Steelers and Broncos, and is also calling for a Super Bowl contender to get a huge scare in Week 12.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 12? And which Super Bowl contender gets a huge scare? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.



Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (+3, 37.5)

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-13, 42)

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5, 54.5)

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-4, 48)

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-1, 46.5)

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+11, 46.5)

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 46.5)

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers (-14, 43.5)

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-9, 52)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (+3, 47.5)

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 47.5)

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-4, 41.5)