Opinion

Bracing for a tidal wave of growth

San Antonio’s growing economy propelled the local housing market to another record sales year in 2017, but the supply of homes on the market remains extremely tight. San Antonio’s growing economy propelled the local housing market to another record sales year in 2017, but the supply of homes on the market remains extremely tight. Photo: William Luther /San Antonio Express-News Photo: William Luther /San Antonio Express-News Image 1 of / 1 Caption Close Bracing for a tidal wave of growth 1 / 1 Back to Gallery

The question isn’t if San Antonio will grow, but how prepared the community is to handle it.

Waves and waves of people will continue to move to the region, year after year. They will be drawn to the quality of life here, the scenic beauty of the Hill Country, the opportunities that arise in a dynamic economy, the relatively affordable housing and the warm weather.

Over the next 25 years, another 1.1 million people will live in Bexar County. They will drive cars, buy homes and choose school districts. With that growth will come incredible challenges. There will be more homes, more cars, more sprawl and more congestion. What now might be a 30-minute commute in traffic may be an hour commute in 2040. Bottlenecks will abound. With more vehicle emissions, air quality will suffer.

More children mean potentially overcrowded schools, especially if our inner city and South Side school districts continue to languish in inadequacy. Without dynamic changes in these school districts, the North Side will grow unrelentingly while the South Side will continue to lag. The city will remain one of the most economically divided in the country.

Express-News reporter Vianna Davila deftly outlines these challenges in her project “The Next Million,” presented in a special section of the newspaper today. Davila doesn’t just look forward at the growth coming our way; she frames this growth explosion within our community’s history, and she does this through the stories of San Antonians who are already feeling the pressure of this growth explosion.

From the ranch family in west Bexar County whose bucolic home is suddenly surrounded by the rooftops of suburban sprawl, to the German families in New Braunfels who worry about the dilution of their traditions amid so many newcomers, to the longtime lower-income residents on the city’s East Side who feel the pressure of gentrification and worry about displacement, Davila digs into the nuances of growth that already touch our lives in both positive and negative ways.

The guiding document to manage this growth, if it can be managed, is the city’s SA Tomorrow plan, which is filled with ideas and policies to create livable centers across the community. But the SA Tomorrow plan is only useful with buy-in from present and future elected officials, as well as developers and builders. It can’t exist just to sit on a shelf.

We see a handful of very clear policy points the community must coalesce around to manage future growth:

Transportation: The community desperately needs the political conviction to craft and implement a viable rail plan. Even now, simply relying on roads and cars is not enough. The community needs much better options for getting people out of their vehicles. This starts with rail, but it also should include expanded bus rapid transit, HOV lanes, a complete network of bicycle lanes and greenway paths. VIA Metropolitan Transit will need more dedicated funding.

Gentrification: The revitalization of the city’s core is exciting and fundamental to the community’s long-term health. But infill development must be coupled with incentives for affordable housing to ensure that longtime lower-income residents who are committed to their community are not displaced. Not only does that disrupt lives, it does nothing to address the generational poverty in San Antonio.

Improving schools: The weak school districts in the inner city and on the South Side are the greatest obstacle toward balanced growth. Given the amount of dysfunction at the South San and Edgewood independent school districts, where the state has intervened, and Southside Independent School District, which is under state investigation, it’s little surprise families do not want to live in these districts. It is paramount the districts stabilize and improve if growth is ever going to come to the South Side. Likewise, San Antonio Independent School District is the keystone to a thriving downtown.

Empowering urban counties: The Bexar County legislative delegation must unanimously work to give the county greater powers when it comes to planning, zoning and code enforcement. The Texas Legislature has been hostile toward city annexation. But if that is denied and growth is going to continue in unincorporated areas, then it would be reckless to deprive urban counties of urban powers.

Is San Antonio ready for the next million people?