The most recent poll of the Florida gubernatorial race suggests that the gap between the candidates has narrowed — Andrew Gillum, the Democratic mayor of Tallahassee, is ahead of Republican U.S. representative Ron DeSantis by just one percentage point.

The new survey, conducted in late September by Mason-Dixon, shows Gillum leading DeSantis 45 to 44 percent among likely voters, with 8 percent undecided. According to the data, Gillum and DeSantis are tied among independent voters, at 41 percent support each.


Another recent poll, conducted for Gray Television by Strategic Research Associates, put Gillum up by one percentage point as well, leading DeSantis 44 to 43 percent, with 12 percent of likely voters undecided. Before these two surveys, Gillum was thought to have a much larger edge on his Republican competitor. A Quinnipiac poll released September 26 put Gillum in the lead by nine percentage points, and NBC News/Marist showed Gillum leading DeSantis 48-43.

Meanwhile, polling suggests that the gap in the Florida Senate race is closing as well. Democratic senator Bill Nelson appeared to hold the advantage in the race throughout September, even though Republican governor Rick Scott had led in a number of polls over the summer. A Quinnipiac survey from mid September, for example, found that Nelson held a seven-point lead over Scott.

But recent surveys by NBC News/Marist and Strategic Research Associates show Scott surging again as Election Day approaches. The latest poll had Nelson leading Scott among likely voters by just one percentage point (45-44), with 11 percent undecided.

Brad Coker, a pollster for Mason-Dixon, told Politico that it’s significant that his recent survey of the gubernatorial race was taken between September 24 and September 27, just before and during the Senate hearing for Brett Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford. From Marc Caputo at Politico:

“Monday through Thursday, there were lots of Kavanaugh fireworks,” said Coker, who conducted the survey for Leadership Florida, which hosts an Oct. 24 gubernatorial debate. “If you take the other polls, it could suggest Republicans might be more fired up than Democrats.”

Senator Nelson has already announced that he will not vote to confirm Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.