The 2018/19 League Two season is well under way and with over a third of the games now in the bag, I thought it may be a good time to give a little update on how each team has performed so far.

In part one, I’ll be focusing on the top 12 as it stands right now and mainly looking at their performances in terms of xG (expected goals). If you’re unfamiliar with xG, reading this blog will help.

When assessing the charts, it’s important to note that Yeovil and Cheltenham have played a game less than the rest.

MK Dons have the best total xGD in the league, vindicating their recent good form. The main surprise is Cambridge and with a total xGD of +3.23, they can feel aggrieved that they’re not higher up the table.

Teams above the trend line are outperforming their xG creation and showing a ruthless edge whilst teams below the trend line require improvement in front of goal.

This chart shows that Notts County, Macclesfield, Newport and Cambridge have all been unfortunate to conceded as many goals as they have whilst Swindon, Mansfield and MK Dons may not be as defensively strong as first thought.

TxGF – Total xG For

TxGA – Total xG Against

GF – Goals For

GA – Goals Against

Lincoln (1st)

TxGF – 23.97, TxGA – 12.92, GF – 32, GA – 15

With 36 points from 17 games, Lincoln sit top of the table and despite some concerning results recently, they remain the favourites. A three-game stretch where they failed to beat Cambridge and Carlisle before losing to Colchester was a wake-up call for the league leaders and it remains to be seen whether the win over Forest Green is a catalyst for another positive spell.

Lincoln boast the strongest defence in terms of xG with an average of 0.76 xG conceded per 90. They’re slightly unfortunate to have conceded 15 goals but with a TxG of 23.97, a return of 32 goals is impressive, showcasing their quality in front of goal. However, can they continue to outperform their xG offensively? they may have to if they want to stay top.

When I featured on the NTT20 podcast I talked about how impressed I was with Danny Cowley’s in-game changes and that shows when you look at their second half statistics.

With a +13 second half GD, the improvement shown by Lincoln after HT thwarts the rest of the top 7. The Imps have only had a HT lead in 6 of their 17 league games, and with 11 wins, they’ve shown their ability to adapt and finish games strongly.

Another strength is their obvious squad depth and quality. Lincoln have had their fair share of injuries and suspensions but with players like Wilson, Wharton, Green, Rhead and Chapman all struggling to break into the starting 11, Danny Cowley has quality to bring in if changes are forced/required. This is something that can prove crucial and when changes have been forced, the quality of the starting 11 hasn’t dropped. The 6-2 win over Port Vale being a fine example.

The form of Akinde is a concern. The centre forward has contributed well but 5 goals from 16 appearances isn’t great especially when you consider the fact that 3 of his goals have come from the penalty spot. This has seen fans call for Rhead to lead the line, but if Lincoln want to win the league, they must find a way to get more out of Akinde.

MK Dons (2nd)

TxGF – 29.24, TxGA – 15.47, GF – 24, GA – 10

I’m going to put my neck on the line and say I believe MK Dons will win the league and I expect them to do so comfortably. Winning 6 of their last 7 league games, they’re starting to build momentum and have outperformed the rest in terms of xG. Unlike Lincoln, MK Dons are showing a poor level of finishing, but Paul Tisdale has tweaked his formation in recent weeks and the 3-4-3 system has allowed Healey, Agard and Aneke to thrive. They breezed past a Crawley side who boast a strong home record last weekend and with players like Pawlett and McGrandles to come in, they’re only going to get stronger.

With 10 goals conceded in 17 games, MK Dons boast the strongest defensive record and it’s no surprise that they’ve only lost 1 game. They’ve scored in 16 of their 17 league games whilst keeping 8 clean sheets. On average they’ve trailed for only 4 minutes per 90 which is very impressive when you consider Lincoln have trailed for 15 minutes on average per 90.

They are well drilled, and Cargill, Walsh and Moore-Taylor form a formidable back three. Moore-Taylor especially is a player that has stood out and his ability to play out from the back shouldn’t go unnoticed. He has the composure and ability to find players in midfield, allowing MK Dons to transition from defence to offensive quickly and effectively.

Right now, I am struggling to find anything too concerning for MK Dons. With players coming back from injury, Paul Tisdale will have to find the right balance when it comes to rotation and if he does that and MK Dons play with consistency, the fans have the right to feel very confident.

Colchester (3rd)

TxGF – 26.86, TxGA – 19.55, GF – 31, GA – 16

At the start of the season, I don’t think many would’ve predicted that Colchester will be in the top 3 after 17 games but they’ve surprised many. They’re over performing defensively and offensively when you look at the xG data however, and they may find it difficult to maintain a top 3 spot.

John McGreal deserves great credit for the job he’s done at Colchester this season. He’s put a system together that gets the best out of his players and they’ve thrived offensively. Most importantly, Senior, Szmodics, Nouble and Norris have all contributed in the final third, scoring 19 goals between them. This makes it tough for teams to stop Colchester as its difficult to figure out where the threat is coming from.

The performances of Jackson, Pell and Prosser mustn’t go unnoticed either. Pell has looked at home in central midfield and has often popped up with crucial goals whilst Jackson is a threat from right-back, providing good deliveries into the box. Prosser, Kent and Eastman have all contributed defensively but Prosser has been an ever present and his consistency can get overlooked. The squad has also showed character throughout the season and every time they’ve lost a league game, they’ve bounced back with a win. Colchester’s main challenge is whether they can maintain their high-level performances.

Tranmere (4th)

TxGF – 20.23 , TxGA – 18.19, GF – 25, GA – 16

Another side who have surprised many. They had an average start to the season but 5 wins in their last 7 games has seen them move up to 4th place, ahead of the likes of Exeter and Forest Green, two sides that have received a lot of plaudits this season.

Tranmere are another side who are out performing their xG creation numbers and the reason why? James Norwood. I’m not quite sure where Tranmere will be without the forward but he’s the difference for them offensively. With 12 strikes, he’s scored just under 50% of Tranmere’s goals this season, fully showcasing his importance to the team.

Tranmere’s home record is extremely impressive, winning 6 out of 9 and losing only 1. Defensively, they’re 5th in terms of total xG conceded and they’re a tough side to break down, especially at home where they’ve only conceded 3 goals. They’ve won more than half of their home games to nil and if they score the first goal, they’re more than capable of seeing the game out defensively.

Tranmere’s strength can also be a weakness and it’s difficult to see where goals are going to come from if Norwood gets injured or loses form. They’re second in the table when you look at home form, but their away form has them all the way down in 13th. If Tranmere can improve performances on the road and maintain their strong home record, there’s no reason why they shouldn’t finish in the top 7.

Exeter (5th)

TxGF – 24.99 , TxGA – 20.23, GF – 26, GA – 17

After a strong start to the season, Exeter are now without a win in 4 games and are going through a tough spell. I still maintain that Matt Taylor has done a great job and although they won’t blow teams away, they have the organisation defensively and enough quality offensively to grind out results.

They’re 6th in the xGD chart and there isn’t a huge variance between their xG figures and their actual figures. Personally, I don’t expect them to drop down or move up a lot of over the next few weeks as currently, their performances have warranted 5th place. Their reliance on Jayden Stockely is an issue offensively and more minutes may need to be given to Jonathan Forte for them to develop a different attacking option. Jayden Stockley’s aerial ability has been apparent this season but teams will have worked this out by now and will look to stop crosses. Another worry is their lack of touches in the opposition box. With an average of 31.9 touches per 90, Exeter have the least amount of touches in the opposition penalty area in the league, which is a worry.

Newport (6th)

TxGF – 23.8, TxGA – 20.4, GF – 25, GA – 29

The only side to have a negative goal difference in the top 10, Newport are without a win in 4 and are dropping down the table. Newport’s main problem is their failure to impose their game-plan on their opponents. They’ve fallen behind on 13 separate occasions, conceding 59% of their goals in the first half whilst holding a poor -5 goal difference record in the first 45 minutes. This has seen them rely on late goals to get them out of trouble which is something that can’t be maintained.

Michael Flynn is doing a good job however, and defensively, they aren’t as bad as first feared. Conceding an average of 1.2 xG per 90, their defence requires improvement but isn’t terrible and they’ve been unfortunate to concede 29 goals. If they can improve their first half record, they have the quality and character to threaten a play-off spot come the end of the season.

Mansfield (7th)

TxGF – 27.03, TxGA – 19.55, GF – 25, GA – 13

Winning 2 of their last 3 games, Mansfield have sneaked into the playoff spots and the data suggests they’re good value for it. I have been intrigued by David Flitcroft’s side throughout the season and was starting to wonder if they would ever turn their draws into wins. They’ve only lost one game but that record is less impressive when you consider the fact that they’ve drawn 10 (most in the league).

A healthy +7.48 xG difference is encouraging but a total xGA of 19.55 is less so. Interestingly, Mansfield’s and Colchester’s numbers are very similar and only 3 points separates them. Along with Bury, Colchester and Mansfield look the most equipped to challenge for a top 3 spot and with the wealth of talent at Mansfield’s disposal, you would expect them to improve as the season develops.

Stevenage (8th)

TxGF – 19.21, TxGA – 20.06, GF – 21, GA – 16

Winning their last two games, Stevenage hold a healthy league position and as much as I would love to praise Dino Maamria and his team, the xG numbers aren’t so healthy. Teams like Oldham, Northampton and even Cambridge have a superior xG difference and that’s enough to raise concern. They concede an average xG of 1.18 per 90 whilst creating an unimpressive 1.13 xG per 90. Therefore, it’s difficult to work out how they’ve managed to win 8 games, maybe it’s Dino Maamria’s magic touch?

If they can recruit wisely in January and add attacking quality, they have the tools to make a serious attempt at a playoff spot. Currently, they have 4 players with 3 goals and they lack a goal scorer.

Forest Green (9th)

TxGF – 23.12, TxGA -19.89, GF – 26, GA – 17

Mark Cooper has Forest Green playing attractive football and they are one of the more exciting teams to watch in League Two. They’ve dealt with Doidge’s departure reasonably well but it’s clear that they need to invest in January. I expected them to have a higher total xG and surprisingly, they’ve been more ruthless in front of goal than I imagined. Currently they’re 9th in xG created per 90 with 1.36, showing that for all their possession and good football, they lack a spark in the final third. They will be looking for a forward in January and if they recruit wisely, they have a strong chance of making the playoffs.

Bury (10th)

TxGF – 26.1, TxGA -16.15, GF – 28, GA – 18

I’m not sure if Bury are going under the radar or not but they’re certainly dark horses. A total xG difference of +9.86 is impressive and very encouraging. It seems like every Bury game I watch they’re unlucky not to win and they miss countless opportunities, but the data doesn’t back that up. They’ve over performed in front of goal and despite holding a healthy total xG of 26.1 (4th highest), they’ve scored 28 (3rd highest). The reason for this is that when things are going well for Bury, their aggressive nature, mentality and playing style is perfectly suited to punish teams in transition. This leads to some emphatic victories where they blow teams away. 4-0 wins over Grimsby and Notts County come to mind whilst the 4-1 victory over Macclesfield last week is another example.

However, when Bury need a goal and the game is tight, that’s when they struggle to create or put away chances. The 1-1 draw against Newport perfectly summed this up. Newport were more effective by being more cautious and despite creating very little, they were able to frustrate Bury and steal a draw. I do believe Bury will make the playoffs and maybe even sneak automatic promotion.

It’s also important to mention Danny Mayor and his performances this season. His influence won’t stand out when you assess the data but his positive approach and his ability to go past players cannot be underestimated.

Carlisle (11th)

TxGF – 17.17, TxGA – 25.33, GF – 19, GA – 22

After a positive start to the season, injuries have had a detrimental effect on Carlisle and 2 wins in 8 games is poor given the quality they possess. A -8.16 total xG difference after 17 games is worrying especially when you consider the fact that only Grimsby are worse off.

At full-strength, there’s no doubt that Carlisle possess enough quality to push for a top 10 spot, but they lack consistency and direction. Losing to the likes of Macclesfield and Morecambe should be enough to raise concern and if things don’t improve, Carlisle will be looking over their shoulder instead of moving up the table.

Crawley (12th)

TxGF – 20.74, TxGA – 26.86, GF – 24, GA – 29

Losing Harry Kewell so early in the season wasn’t ideal for Crawley and although Gabriele Cioffi initially gave them a lift, they’ve now conceded 9 goals in their last two games and they look fragile defensively. The goal-scoring heroics of Ollie Palmer has masked a poor performance in terms of xG and it’s difficult to see where an improvement is coming from. Losing Jimmy Smith for the season is a blow and they will go as far as Filipe Morais and Ollie Palmer take them.

Their home form is impressive but when you lose 4 straight on the road (conceding 12) it’s hard to build momentum.

That’s the end of part one. Part two can be found here. As always any feedback and sharing on social media will be greatly appreciated. I’m new to this league so would love to hear from any fans who agree or disagree with me.