New state electoral boundaries for NSW were proclaimed on 18 September. These boundaries contained only minor changes from the draft boundaries released on Monday 17 June 2013. .

Background on the redistribution can be found at the NSW Electoral Districts Commission website. Maps and details of the new boundaries are now available on the site

I have prepared a publication for the NSW Parliamentary Library containing estimated votes and margins for all new electorates. It can be found via this link.

The analysis below has been updated to take account of the final boundaries.

2013 NSW Redistribution - Summary of the Party Standings Seats held by party State of Parties LIB NAT ALP GRN OTH Total Old boundaries - 2011 election 51 18 20 1 3 93 New boundaries - based on 2011 results 53 17 18 2 3 93 Including by-elections 52 18 19 2 2 93

The most important changes to the boundaries are -

The National Party seat of Murrumbidgee has been abolished.

Murrumbidgee is absorbed into the neighbouring National seats of Murray (formerly Murray-Darling) and Cootamundra (formerly Burrinjuck).

Londonderry becomes much weaker for Liberal Party

The Labor seat of Toongabbie, held by former Premier Nathan Rees, is abolished and replaced by the relatively safe Liberal seat of Seven Hills

The Labor seat of Macquarie Fields, held by Labor's Dr Andrew McDonald, becomes a marginal Liberal seat, but Dr McDonald's personal vote should allow him to overcome this change.

Marrickville has been abolished, divided between the new seats of Newtown and Summer Hill. Newtown looks to be a contest between Labor and the Greens, while Summer Hill is a safe Labor seat.

the Liberal seat of Menai has been abolished, replaced by Holsworthy, a seat based further west and with half the Liberal margin of Menai.

Wollondilly loses its Campbelltown end and becomes much safer for the Liberal Party.

Prospect replaces Smithfield and is slightly weaker for the Liberal Party.

Boundary swaps in the St George district sees Oatley become safer for the Liberal Party and Kogarah safer for Labor.

The Independent-held seat of Northern Tablelands was won by the National Party at a May 2013 by-election.

The Liberal held seat of Miranda was won by the Labor Party at an October 2013 by-election.

The final boundaries produced very minor changes to the proposed boundaries for Blue Mountains, Charlestown, Goulburn, Hawkesbury, Kiama, Lake Macquarie, Monaro, Myall Lakes, Newcastle, Oxley, South Coast and Wallsend. The only significant changed produced by these boundaries is that the estimated new National Party margin for Monaro slips from 2.5% to 2.0%.

In the table below, all listed margins are based on two-party preferred results between Labor and the Coalition, except for Balmain, Lake Macquarie, Newtown and Sydney. The record low Labor vote in 2011 meant the party slipped into third place in many electorates, and two-party preferred counts for information purposes were conducted after the election.

Changes to margins Old Name Old Margin New Margin Details of Changes Albury LIB 26.9% LIB 27.1% Gains 1,975 voters in the west from Murray-Darling. Auburn ALP 8.5% ALP 7.2% Loses areas in Bankstown Council to the electorates of Bankstown and Lakemba. Gains southern parts of Granville from Granville. Ballina NAT 25.2% NAT 24.6% Only minor changes, gaining around 1,500 voters from Lismore. Estimated National margins versus the Greens falls from 17.8% to 17.0%. Balmain GRN 3.5% GRN 5.0% Loses Haberfield and Dobroyd Point to the new electorate of Summer Hill. Gains Ultimo from Sydney. With the loss of the stronger Liberal booths in Haberfield, the new boundaries see the Greens replace the Liberals as leading on first preferences, the new figures Green 31.1%, Liberal 30.7%, Labor 29.9%. Bankstown ALP 10.3% ALP 10.6% Western boundary shifts west to Villawood Road amongst major boundary changes. Barwon NAT 32.0% NAT 25.8% Major boundaries changes, with north-eastern areas around Moree transferred to Northern Tablelands, while the electorate extends west to gain the mining city of Broken Hill. These changes bring Barwon back within quota, the stronger Labor vote in Broken Hill cutting the National margin. Bathurst NAT 23.7% NAT 23.7% Gains Lyndhurst and Mandurama from Burrinjuck. Baulkham Hills LIB 26.4% LIB 28.3% Loses Winston Hills and Northmead to the new seat of Seven Hills. Loses parts of North Rocks to Parramatta. Gains areas in the north from Castle Hill. Bega LIB 18.6% LIB 18.5% Minor change, gaining Bemboka from Monaro. Blacktown ALP 3.7% ALP 4.1% Minor boundary changes with neighbouring electorates. Blue Mountains LIB 4.7% LIB 5.4% Gains parts of Blaxland in the east from Penrith. Burrinjuck NAT 31.1% Abolished Abolished, the electorate shifting west into the area previously occupied by Murrumbidgee and being re-named Cootamundra. (See Cootamundra) Cabramatta ALP 2.1% ALP 1.9% Boundary changes with all neighbouring electorates. Camden LIB 18.9% LIB 22.8% Loses remaining parts of the Campbelltown Council area to Macquarie Fields and Campbelltown. Campbelltown LIB 3.4% LIB 6.8% Shifts south, losing its northern suburbs to Macquarie Fields, gaining most of the southern suburbs of Campbelltown from Wollondilly. Canterbury ALP 8.3% ALP 7.4% Shifts south west with the creation of the new seat of Summer Hill, taking in the eastern parts of Lakemba in the shift. Castle Hill LIB 30.8% LIB 34.7% Loses areas south of Castle Hill to other electorates, while taking in Kellyville and surrounding suburbs from Hawkesbury in the north. Cessnock ALP 4.4% ALP 3.9% Minor boundary swaps with Upper Hunter in the west. Loses Beresfield and Tarro to Wallsend. Charlestown LIB 9.9% LIB 9.2% Minor changes. Clarence NAT 31.4% NAT 31.9% Minor boundary changes with neighbouring Lismore and Coffs Harbour. Coffs Harbour NAT 27.2% NAT 27.3% Gains Corindi and Red Rock from Clarence, loses Mylestom, Raleigh and Urunga in the south to Oxley. Coogee LIB 8.2% LIB 8.3% Loses Kensington to Heffron, gains South Coogee from Maroubra. Cootamundra New seat NAT 30.3% New seat largely replacing Burrinjuck, taking in the western parts of that seat as well as the eastern parts of the abolished electorate of Murrumbidgee. Cronulla LIB 25.5% LIB 24.8% Becomes more east-west aligned following boundary swaps with Miranda. Davidson LIB 36.5% LIB 36.2% Gains Castle Cove from Willoughby and West Lindfield from Ku-ring-gai. Loses St Ives to Ku-ring-gai. Liberal 2CP margin versus the Greens slips from 33.4% to 33.0%. Drummoyne LIB 16.7% LIB 17.1% Loses Homebush and North Strathfield to Strathfield. Dubbo NAT 33.9% NAT 31.3% Dubbo changes from a north-south to an east-west aligned electorates. Gains Wellington and Mudgee from Orange in exchange for Parkes and Forbes. East Hills LIB 0.6% LIB 0.2% Minor boundary changes with Bankstown. Epping LIB 25.2% LIB 27.5% Shifts north-west, losing Carlingford, gaining Cherrybrook. Fairfield ALP 1.7% ALP 2.2% Boundary changes with neighbouring electorates. Gosford LIB 11.9% LIB 11.9% Loses Springfield to Terrigal, gains parts of Narara from The Entrance. Goulburn LIB 26.6% LIB 26.8% Shifts west, taking in parts of the abolished seat of Burrinjuck while shedding areas in the southern highlands to Wollondilly. The first preference figures are Liberal 48.4%, National 28.6%, Labor 23.0%. Granville LIB 2.7% LIB 3.8% Shifts north-west, losing southern parts of Granville to Auburn. Hawkesbury LIB 34.7% LIB 28.4% Moves out of the growing Hills district, but gains Windsor from Riverstone and Richmond from Londonderry. Heathcote LIB 12.9% LIB 19.0% Shifts north, losing Thirroul and Bulli to Keira, gaining parts of the Menai area. Heffron ALP 7.1% ALP 5.2% Loses Redfern to the new seat of Newtown. Loses Daceyville and Pagewood to Maroubra. Gains Centennial Park from Sydney. Holsworthy New seat LIB 10.7% Largely replaces the Liberal seat of Menai, but with around half of the margin. The electorate loses most of the area previously in Sutherland Council, instead gaining areas south of Liverpool and west of the Georges River. Hornsby LIB 27.1% LIB 26.5% Loses Cherrybrook, gains Arcadia. Keira ALP 3.8% ALP 2.9% Gains Bulli and Thirroul from Heathcote, loses Towradgi to Wollongong. Kiama LIB 7.5% LIB 8.6% Loses Robertson and rural areas to the west to Goulburn, as well as Shell Cove in the north to Shellharbour. Gains rural areas west of Nowra from South Coast. Kogarah ALP 1.9% ALP 5.4% Loses Blakehurst and Connells Point to Oatley and gains parts of Hurstville in return. Ku-ring-gai LIB 37.0% LIB 36.9% Minor boundary changes with neighbouring electorates. Lake Macquarie IND 14.9% IND 14.6% Loses rural areas west of Wyong to Wyong along with other minor boundary changes. Lakemba ALP 7.0% ALP 7.3% Major boundary changes, losing areas in the west and south to Canterbury and gains areas including Greenacre and Chullora from Bankstown and Auburn. Lane Cove LIB 27.3% LIB 27.3% Minor boundary changes with Willoughby and Ryde. Lismore NAT 24.3% NAT 24.3% Minor boundary changes with Ballina and Clarence, gains Tenterfield from Northern Tablelands. Liverpool ALP 14.7% ALP 14.0% Boundary changes with neighbouring electorates. Londonderry LIB 12.3% LIB 5.3% Big cut in the Liberal margin as the electorate loses Richmond and semi-rural areas in the north, gaining parts of Mount Druitt and St Marys in the south. Macquarie Fields ALP 1.5% LIB 1.8% Shifts south, losing Prestons and Lurnea to Holsworthy, gaining northern parts of Campbelltown. Maitland LIB 6.3% LIB 4.9% Loses the rest of Raymond Terrace and everything north of the Paterson River to Port Stephens. Manly LIB 32.4% LIB 32.4% Unchanged. Maroubra ALP 1.6% ALP 2.3% Gains Hillsdale and Daceyville from Heffron. Loses South Coogee to Coogee. Marrickville ALP 20.4% Abolished Divided between the new electorates of Newtown and Summer Hill. The Green end of Marrickville becomes part of Newtown, while the Labor voting western end of Marrickville forms the core of Summer Hill. Menai LIB 24.4% Abolished See Holsworthy Miranda LIB 21.0% LIB 23.0% Re-aligned to run east-west along the Georges River from Taren Point to Alfords Point. Applying this change in margin to the results of the October 2013 by-election, Miranda is estimated to have a Labor margin of 3.1%. Monaro NAT 2.1% NAT 2.0% Loses Bemboka to Bega, gains Sutton and Gundaroo from Burrinjuck. Mount Druitt ALP 6.7% ALP 6.0% Loses Wilmott to Londonderry, gains Dean Park from Riverstone. Mulgoa LIB 12.0% LIB 12.4% Loses areas north of the M4 to Londonderry, Gains new housing estates west of Cowpasture Road from Smithfield and Liverpool. Murray New seat NAT 30.9% New name for Murray-Darling. Loses Broken Hill and the vast areas in the north to Barwon, while taking in the western parts of the abolished electorate of Murrumbidgee, including the major centres of Griffith and Leeton. The loss of Broken Hill increases the National margin. Murray-Darling NAT 27.2% Abolished See Murray. Murrumbidgee NAT 27.9% Abolished Abolished and largely divided between the re-named electorates of Murray and Cootamundra. Myall Lakes NAT 28.6% NAT 28.6% Minor boundary changes with neighbouring electorates. Newcastle LIB 2.6% LIB 2.5% Loses areas to Waratah and Charlestown, gains Fern Bay and the rest of Mayfield from Port Stephens. Newtown New seat GRN 4.4 A new electorates that combines Redfern, previously in Heffron, most of Surry Hills from Sydney, plus the eastern parts of Marrickville between Petersham and Newtown. In 2-party preferred terms this is a safe Labor seat with a margin of 13.7%, but in a two-candidate contest would be a marginal Green seat versus Labor.The estimated first preferences are Green 35.5%, Labor 30.4%, Liberal 21.0%, Independent 9.1 North Shore LIB 30.3% LIB 30.4% Minor boundary changes with Willoughby. Northern Tablelands NAT 26.1% NAT 27.6% Loses Walcha, Nowendoc and Woolbrook to Tamworth. Loses Tenterfield to Lismore. Gains areas around Moree from Barwon. Note that Northern Tablelands was won by Independent Richard Torbay at the 2011 election, but the National Party won it at a by-election in May 2013. Oatley LIB 0.5% LIB 3.8% Loses parts of Hurstville and Beverley Hills. Gains Riverwood from Lakemba and Blakehurst and Connells Point from Kogarah. Orange NAT 24.2% NAT 27.1% Orange changes from being a north-south to an east-west aligned electorate. Loses Wellington and Mudgee to Dubbo in exchange for Parkes and Forbes. Oxley NAT 29.1% NAT 28.8% Gains Raleigh, Mylestom and Urunga from Coffs Harbour, along with smaller boundary changes with Northern Tablelands, Port macquarie and Myall lakes. Parramatta LIB 12.1% LIB 12.5% Shifts east and north, losing Westmead and Wentworthville west of the Parramatta CBD, gaining parts of North Rocks and Carlingford in their place. Penrith LIB 16.3% LIB 16.1% Minor boundary changes with neighbouring electorates. Pittwater LIB 34.5% LIB 34.5% Unchanged. Port Macquarie NAT 28.7% NAT 28.8% Very minor changes, gaining Telegraph Point and Upper Lansdowne from Oxley. Port Stephens LIB 12.4% LIB 14.7% Gains the rest of Raymond Terrace plus everything north of the Paterson River from Maitland. Loses Mayfield and Fern Bay to newcastle. Together these changes increase the Liberal margin by more than 2%. Prospect New seat LIB 1.1% New name for Smithfield and about 3% weaker for the Liberal Party. Riverstone LIB 20.2% LIB 20.1% Loses Bligh Park and Windsor to Hawkesbury. Loses Dean Park to Mount Druitt. Rockdale LIB 3.6% LIB 3.6% Unchanged. Ryde LIB 25.7% LIB 25.2% Minor boundary changes with Lane Cove and Epping. Seven Hills New seat LIB 8.8% Has been formed from the marginal Labor electorate of Toongabbie, but Labor voting areas in the west have been transferred into Blacktown and Prospect, while Liberal voting Winston Hills and Northmead have been transferred in from Baulkham Hills. On paper a safe Liberal electorate and bad news for Labor MP Nathan Rees. Shellharbour ALP 8.6% ALP 7.8% Main change is gaining Shell Cove from Kiama. Smithfield LIB 4.8% Abolished See Prospect South Coast LIB 20.4% LIB 20.1% Loses rural areas west of Nowra to Kiama. Strathfield LIB 4.4% LIB 6.4% Loses Ashfield and Summer Hill to the new seat of Summer Hill. Gains Croydon Park from Canterbury, and Homebush and North Strathfield from Drummoyne. Summer Hill New seat ALP 12.7% Formed from the more Labor voting western end of the abolished electorate of Marrickville, combined with eastern parts of Canterbury and Strathfield, as well as Haberfield from Balmain. The first preferences are Labor 41.8%, Liberal 28.3%, Green 24.3%. Swansea LIB 1.1% LIB 0.3% Loses Redhead in the north to Charlestown, gains San Remo in the south from Wyong. Sydney IND 3.1% IND 0.3% Loses Ultimo to Balmain. Loses Centennial Park to Heffron. Loses Chippendale and Surry Hills to Newtown. On the new boundaries the Liberal Party leads on first preferences, Liberal 38.9%, Independent 34.9%, Green 12.3%, Labor 10.4%. Tamworth NAT 30.6% NAT 30.7% Gains Walcha, Nowendoc and Woolbrook from Northern Tablelands. Loses Boggabri to Barwon. Terrigal LIB 24.1% LIB 23.6% Gains Springfield from Gosford. The Entrance LIB 12.5% LIB 11.8% Gains parts of Berkeley Vale from Wyong, loses parts of Narara to Gosford. Toongabbie ALP 0.3% Abolished See Seven Hills Tweed NAT 21.7% NAT 21.7% Unchanged. Upper Hunter NAT 23.3% NAT 23.0% Only minor boundary changes. Vaucluse LIB 31.4% LIB 31.4% Unchanged. Wagga Wagga LIB 27.8% LIB 27.8% Unchanged. Wakehurst LIB 30.5% LIB 30.5% Unchanged. Wallsend ALP 6.6% ALP 6.3% Minor boundary changes with all surrounding electorates. Willoughby LIB 30.8% LIB 30.4% Minor boundary changes with North Shore and Lane Cove. Wollondilly LIB 14.7% LIB 21.6% Becomes stronger for the Liberal Party, losing the southern suburbs of Campbelltown in exchange for areas towards Mittangong and Bowral. Wollongong ALP 8.9% ALP 9.3% Minor boundary adjustments with Keira. Wyong LIB 2.6% LIB 4.6% Regains rural areas west of Wyong from Lake Macquarie. Loses San Remo in the north to Swansea. Loses parts of Berkely Vale to the Entrance.

Electoral Pendulums (Seats under 10% margin)

2-Party Preferred Electoral Pendulum - Old Electoral Boundaries Coalition Seats Labor Seats Margin District Margin District 0.5% Oatley 0.3% Toongabbie 0.6% East Hills 1.5% Macquarie Fields 1.1% Swansea 1.6% Maroubra 2.1% Monaro (NAT) 1.7% Fairfield 2.6% Wyong 1.9% Kogarah 2.7% Granville 2.1% Cabramatta 3.4% Campbelltown 3.5% Balmain (2PP ALP v LIB) 3.6% Rockdale 3.7% Blacktown 4.4% Strathfield 3.8% Keira 4.7% Blue Mountains 4.4% Cessnock 4.8% Smithfield 6.6% Wallsend 6.3% Maitland 6.7% Mount Druitt 7.5% Kiama 7.0% Lakemba 8.2% Coogee 7.1% Heffron 9.4% Lake Macquarie (2PP LIB v ALP) 8.3% Canterbury 9.9% Charleston 8.5% Auburn 8.6% Shellharbour 8.9% Wollongong

Notes: Figures in above pendulum are based on two-party preferred counts between Labor and the Coalition. Lake Macquarie is Independent held with a margin of 14.9% versus the Liberal Party. Balmain is Green held with a margin of 3.5% versus the Liberal Party. Not shown is Sydney, Independent held with a margin of 3.1% versus the Liberal Party. Margins DO NOT not take account of the Clarence, Heffron, Sydney or Northern Tablelands by-election.

2-Party Preferred Electoral Pendulum - New Electoral Boundaries Coalition Seats Labor Seats Margin District Margin District 0.2% East Hills 1.9% Cabramatta 0.3% Swansea 2.3% Maroubra 1.1% Prospect 2.2% Fairfield 1.8% Macquarie Fields (ALP held) 2.9% Keira 2.0% Monaro (NAT) 3.9% Cessnock 2.5% Newcastle 4.1% Blacktown 3.5% Granville 4.7% Balmain (2PP ALP v LIB) 3.6% Rockdale 5.2% Heffron 3.8% Oatley 5.4% Kogarah 4.6% Wyong 6.0% Mount Druitt 4.9% Maitland 6.1% Wallsend 5.3% Londonderry 7.2% Auburn 5.4% Blue Mountains 7.3% Lakemba 6.4% Strathfield 7.4% Canterbury 6.8% Campbelltown 7.8% Shellharbour 8.3% Coogee 9.4% Wollongong 8.6% Kiama 8.8% Seven Hills (ex-ALP Toongabbie) 9.2% Charlestown

Notes: Figures in above pendulum are based on two-party preferred counts between Labor and the Coalition. The estimated Green margin versus the Liberal in Balmain is 4.2%. The Independent margin in Sydney is 0.8% versus the Liberal Party, but ignoring the by-election result. Calculation DO NOT not take account of the Clarence, Heffron, Sydney or Northern Tablelands by-election.