We’ve now seen how crazy this league can be. We saw Jerian Grant make an improbable circus shot, except it wasn’t all that improbable considering everything else he made look easy all game long against Duke. And the Blue Devils’ backs are against the wall with the dismissal of Rasheed Sulaimon and facing a second straight loss at Virginia.

The Cavaliers have plenty to prove, too. Meanwhile, North Carolina is happy to fly under the radar with its little six-game winning streak headed to face Louisville for a second time in what should be an exciting appetizer to the main event. Not quite sure what to call NC State-Georgia Tech, except a must-win for the Wolfpack. But if we’re comparing it to a restaurant experience, I’ll call it whatever course it is that you will need your palate cleansed after.

NC STATE (13-9, 4-5) AT GEORGIA TECH (10-10, 1-7)

Time: 12:00 p.m.

TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

Ah, Georgia Tech, ye of the woeful conference-only (really, just, any) offense and winless ACC season that somehow beat No. 23 Miami on the road by 20 points. Like you do. JUST BE GOOD OR DON’T. And NC State, you’re not immune here. What you did against Clemson in the first half was like watching a cat trapped in a paper bag. Two big factors in this game, though – offensive rebounding (Georgia Tech is 11th nationally in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage) and turnovers. Georgia Tech is last in offensive turnover rate in league play (19.7 percent of possessions), but NC State is 12th (17 percent). NC State has to stop giving up these easy chances, and they have to capitalize on them when they get them – they turned 21 offensive rebounds and 12 Clemson turnovers into 10 and 15 points (25). Clemson turned State’s 11 turnovers and its own nine offensive rebounds into 17 and 11 points - that’s 28 total, on five fewer chances.

PTP-ERS

Trevor Lacey. The junior guard had his best ORtg of the season against Clemson. But that’s a bit deceiving, because his usage percentage was just 19 percent – just the second time he was below 20 percent in ACC play and just the fourth time that’s happened all season. It worked out fine against Duke (17 percent, 21 points), but he’s too important to NC State to take only 10 shots. He took 13 against Duke, by contrast. He’ll have to be a much bigger part of this game, and he’ll have to play well, of course. He did snap a stretch of shooting 8-of-28 from three with 3-of-6 against Clemson, so that’s something.

Marcus Georges-Hunt. He’s feeling it at the moment, averaging 22 points in the last two games on 17-of-25 shooting (and 22 of those attempts have been two’s), adding 9-of-13 free throws, 15 rebounds and seven assists. That seems good. The junior guard is obviously Tech’s most important player – if he struggles, they have next to no chance but if he flourishes, the Jackets can beat anyone. In theory. NC State has struggled some with veteran, savvy opposing guards in the last few games; that’s going to have to change in a hurry.

TEMPO-FREE

NC State has had a bad half and a good half in at least the last five games. In that stretch, NC State is 1-4. But it had a chance to win three. Anyway, in the good half, NC State is outscoring opponents 42.2-33.4, shooting 49.7 percent (42.9 percent from three, 78.9 percent from the foul line). Opponents in NC State’s good half have shot 42.7 percent (37.5 percent from three, 74.1 percent from the line). In the bad half, though, NC State is being outscored 38.2-27.0 and is shooting 32.3 percent (23.3 percent from three and 62.5 percent from the line). NC State’s opponents shoot 46.8 percent (39.1 percent from three, 68.3 percent from the line). So NC State’s opponents get a little better on average, but NC State gets a lot worse. NC State has averaged around the same amount of attempted field goals (32.2 good, 31.0 bad), 3’s (9.8 good, 8.6 bad) and free throws (7.6 good, 8.0 bad). Only difference is how many are going in (16.0 good, 10.0 bad for field goals and 4.2 to 2.0 3’s).

NARRATIVES

NC State Win: Oh look you won a winnable game!

NC State Loss: NC State, the last two games:

Georgia Tech Win: Two ACC wins in a row stop it there are it there are too many bees oh god

Georgia Tech Loss: Georgia Tech attempting to offense is like this dude attempting a rob a convenience store.

PREDICTION

NC State, 74-68. Don’t let me down, Wolfpack.

NO. 13 NORTH CAROLINA (17-4, 7-1) AT NO. 10 LOUISVILLE (17-3, 5-2)

Time: 4:00 p.m.

TV: ESPN

#ANALYSIS

It’s hard to extrapolate a ton from the first meeting, just because both teams have tweaked quite a few things and have changed since Marcus Paige’s game-winner rolled home in the waning moments. But a lot about both teams’ core identities remains the same. And for North Carolina to win it absolutely cannot turn the ball over as much as it has been. In fact, during this six-game winning streak North Carolina has turned it over on 18 percent or more of its possessions in five of the six games. That’s way too high. And that’s what Louisville thrives on, so they’ve got to cut it out. Louisville, meanwhile, is going to have to keep North Carolina off the offensive boards. The 44.7 percent OR percentage in the first meeting by UNC was a difference-maker. But Carolina has struggled some in that area, too, and Louisville’s going to have to make sure it stays that way. Oh and for the love of god, stop taking long 2’s.

PTP-ERS

Brice Johnson. The junior is in the midst of the best three-game stretch of his career, any way you slice it. He’s averaged 18 points on 21-of-26 (!!!) shooting in the last three to go with 10.3 rebounds (including back-to-back double-doubles), 1.3 assists, 2.0 blocks and almost a steal per game. The only stretch he’s had that rivaled it was in Carolina’s three of Carolina’s final four games of last season when he averaged 15.7 points on 22-of-29 shooting – but he added just 7.7 rebounds. He got hurt against Iowa State and couldn’t play out the string, but it’s also worth pointing out that as well as Johnson played, North Carolina lost two of those games. These last three games are all Carolina wins, and he’s been more consistent than he’s ever been. But can he keep it up? Against Louisville last time, he was 2-of-6 in the first half but went 3-of-5 in the second, pulling down 11 rebounds for the game and helping to get his team going. Carolina’s going to have to exploit the advantage it has offensively with its big men or it’ll be a long afternoon.

Terry Rozier/Chris Jones. The duo combined for 44 of Louisville’s 71 points in the first meeting this year against Carolina on 18-of-33 shooting (4-of-13 from three with Jones canning 3-of-6 three’s). They also had 10 assists to four turnovers. But their disappearance - particularly that of Jones - was a big reason why Louisville’s offense sputtered late. Louisville took a 13-point lead with 8:43 to go, and the ending seemed merely academic at that point. But it wasn’t, as North Carolina outscored Louisville 22-8 the rest of the way. Rozier scored six of Louisville’s final eight points on 2-of-3 shooting; his teammates were 1-of-8 and turned it over three times in that span. Jones was 0-of-2 and 0-of-1 from three with a turnover; prior to that point, he’d shot 8-of-10 from the field and 3-of-5 from three with five assists to two turnovers. None of Louisville’s final three baskets were assisted.

Regardless of what happened in the first meeting, the Louisville backcourt – particularly with North Carolina a bit thin there – is going to be an advantage for the Cardinals. But they have to play well. They have been, in conference play, averaging 37.1 points combined and shooting nearly 50 percent, per Jeff Greer of the Courier-Journal.

TEMPO-FREE

In the first 10 minutes of each half against North Carolina, Louisville scored 49 points. In the final 10 minutes of each half, it scored 22 points. North Carolina scored between 15-22 points in each “quarter” of that game. … After the Louisville game was over, Marcus Paige was shooting 14-of-36 from the field in ACC play (7-of-19 from three, 1-of-2 from the foul line) and was averaging 12 points, 2.7 assists and 2.5 turnovers in the first three ACC games. There was talk that the Louisville game jump-started him, and maybe that’s true – in the five league games since, he’s shooting 50 percent (53.6 percent from three) and 19-of-20 from the foul line, averaging 16.8 points, 6.2 assists and 1.6 turnovers.

NARRATIVES

North Carolina Win: It’s tough to play Louisville twice. Even more impressive to beat them twice. How would North Carolina know?

North Carolina Loss: OH NOWWWWWWWW LOUISVILLE HIT THEIR OPEN THREE-POINTERS BUT NOT AT HOME AGAINST DUKE’S ZONE

Louisville Win: You wanted a win over a Ken Pom top-100 team in 2015 WELL YOU GOT IT

Louisville Loss: Oh….Louisville.

PREDICTION

North Carolina, 77-71. Rick Pitino will beat North Carolina at some point, and it may even be this year in a potential third meeting. I just don’t think it will be in this one.

NO. 4 DUKE (17-3, 4-3) AT NO. 2 VIRGINIA (19-0, 7-0)

Time: 7:00 p.m.

TV: ESPN

#ANALYSIS

Duke used its zone some at Notre Dame, to varying degrees of effectiveness, and after watching tape of Virginia at Virginia Tech from Saturday, they’ll probably use it again. Virginia absolutely has to get better ball movement and execution against a zone if Duke does break it out this time around, and they’ll have to make the Blue Devils pay in ways that matter – like on the glass, for instance, and working for a shot they want instead of one Duke wants them to take. Similarly, Duke is going to have to exhibit other-worldly patience and toughness. Duke has shown some of that for the last few games now in spite of going 1-1 in that span. But Virginia’s defense is going to make the Blue Devils work on offense for what they want, and they can’t lose patience or faith in the right play being right regardless of the result. And on defense, they’d better figure something out when it comes to guarding screens because Virginia will do that and then some.

PTP-ERS

Quinn Cook. Not Jahlil Okafor? Well, no. Because here’s the thing – we know Virginia is going to double-team him. It’s a tenet of the pack line defense. We also know Okafor is a really good passer, more often than not. So let’s go ahead and assume, for the sake of argument, he gets his points but also passes beautifully. Someone’s going to have to make shots. And Cook, right now, is playing shooting guard. There’s an interesting dynamic developing on Duke at the moment where both Tyus Jones and Cook can handle the ball, and often do. But Cook ended most of Duke's possessions down the stretch, or so it seemed, and not in scores. But in the game itself overall, he hit 3-of-6 three’s and he’s shooting 36.8 percent in ACC play. He’s going to have the ball in his hands a lot, and he is going to have some decent looks at the basket for 3 or a chance to make decision. He – or whoever has the ball – is going to have to choose wisely.

Justin Anderson. The junior has come leaps and bounds a a player from where he was a year ago. He was 4-of-10 from the field in Durham and had 12 points. But in the rematch in the ACC Tournament, he played just 15 minutes and was 0-of-1 from the field with two assists and two turnovers. Either way, Anderson’s happily stepped up his play this year and any time Virginia has needed a bucket, he’s delivered. And close games have generally been the ones where he’s delivered – of Virginia’s four ACC games decided by 10 points or less, he’s averaged 13.8 points and he’s often been the man down the stretch. The athletic 3-man is going to be an ex-factor in this one both because of how good he’s been this year and of the absence of Rasheed Sulaimon for Duke. That impacts perimeter depth, and if Justise Winslow isn’t right physically or Matt Jones gets in foul trouble, Anderson could have an ENORMOUS night.

TEMPO-FREE

Duke’s 107.3 OE against Notre Dame was its highest in a loss since March 21, 2014 in the season-ending NCAA Tournament loss to Mercer. If there’s good news for Duke, it’s that while it allowed Notre Dame to post a 113.2 OE, fourth-highest allowed by Duke this season, it allowed Notre Dame without Jerian Grant to post a higher one LAST year in South Bend (122.6). … Duke has played just eight games this year at 65 possessions or fewer. But Duke is undefeated in those games. Virginia has played jus tone game all season at 65 possessions or more and just six at 61 or more. … The highest OE allowed by the Virginia defense this season is Davidson’s 114.8. Duke has been over that mark 10 times this year already.

NARRATIVES

Duke Win: Ohhhhhhh y’all thought Duke was done didn’t you America

Duke Loss: Duke’s going to be all:

Virginia Win: YOU DID IT BRO

Virginia Loss: God your offense is so unwatchable

​

PREDICTION

Virginia, 75-68. As tempted as I am to pick Duke because of the whole “backs against the wall” thing, I just think Virginia is better. They may not play well enough to win this particular game, but I’ll still think they’re better.

BOSTON COLLEGE (9-10, 1-6) AT CLEMSON (12-8, 4-4)

Time: 12:00 p.m.

TV: RSN

#ANALYSIS

It’s pretty clear I don’t know Clemson. I’m 1-3 in picking their last four games, and the one was an attempted reverse jinx for Wake Forest in an ACC road game. Four of my 12 incorrect picks this year have been Clemson games. So, yeah. I’ve been hard on Clemson this year. The Tigers showed some fight after NC State mounted a ridiculous comeback on Wednesday and they steeled themselves and made plays down the stretch. Clemson’s defense is now up to fourth in league-only efficiency and if they keep playing this way against a struggling offense in Boston College, then they’ll keep this rolling. If not, they’ll continue to make people like my scratch my head as I try to figure them out.

PTP-ERS

Aaron Brown. Someone not named Olivier Hanlan has to score. Against Louisville, Brown stepped up and did just that, pouring in 28 points on 10-of-22 shooting. He didn’t register many other stats, but he didn’t really need to, either. He’s been in double figures in all but two ACC games this year, but he’s been kind of inefficient – until lately. He’s shooting 18-of-47 in the last three games (11-of-28 from three) and has two 20-point games. That’ll do.

Jordan Roper. I’m still adjusting to living in a world where the sentence “Jordan Roper leads all scorers” could be uttered. But here we are. And Roper was great, hitting 5-of-11 shots (3-of-5 three’s) and 5-of-6 free throws for 18 points against NC State, adding two assists, no turnovers and a block. In Clemson’s ACC wins, he’s averaged 11.3 points on 15-of-38 shooting (7-of-19 from three) compared to 3.3 points in losses on 4-of-20 shooting (1-of-7 from three).

TEMPO-FREE

Clemson’s defense has not been great most of this season. But in the last four games - albeit against varying degrees of successful offenses – Clemson has held opponents under 100 in OE and held three of those four opponents to one of their three worst OE’s of the season.…You’re going to have to sit down for this one. Boston College posted the best OE that Louisville has allowed ALL SEASON in an 81-72 loss on Wednesday (and even that’s just a 109.5).

NARRATIVES

Boston College Win: Hey nice work Eagles now Rob Gronkowski will read you a story

Boston College Loss: Look, Boston College is just struggling like the rest of us do in like our daily lives really they're the most identifiable team ever

Clemson Win: Oh well now look at you Clemson you’ve strung some successes together in a logical way that makes sense

Clemson Loss: I can’t even with you guys.

PREDICTION

Clemson, 59-54. Only because they won’t let me use ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ as a prediction.

NO. 8 NOTRE DAME (20-2, 9-1) AT PITTSBURGH (13-8, 3-5)

Time: 12:00 p.m.

TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

Notre Dame is going up against the most porous defense in Pitt’s that it has faced since Virginia Tech, and it eviscerated the Hokies. But here’s the thing – coming off an emotional win like Wednesday’s, it seems like some sort of a letdown is inevitable. Still, Notre Dame is old, good and will no doubt be prepared for this. But the Irish defense is going to have to be ready, because Pitt has some players that can score. If Notre Dame’s defense is as bad as it has been at times, and the Irish isn’t seeing shots fall, this will be closer than it needs to be. That’s a lot of if’s, but make no mistake – Pitt is going to be pretty annoyed after the terrible, horrible, no-good very-bad loss it just took, and if Notre Dame isn’t ready, look out.

PTP-ERS

Steve Vasturia. The one I call One Direction because of his baby face (and formerly-long hair), the sophomore has been a very valuable contributor for the Irish this year more often than not. But when he’s struggled, so too have the Irish, usually – in the close win at UNC and loss to Virginia, he scored a total of five points on 2-of-11 shooting. He averaged 9.7 points in the next three and hit 4-of-9 three’s, but in the last two games – an 18-point comeback at NC State and a late comeback against Duke – he hit a big shot or two in both but finished 4-of-15 (2-of-9 from 3) in both combined. Notre Dame doesn’t need him to score a ton, but it needs him to make the open ones.

Josh Newkirk. Right now, Pitt’s sixth man – a sophomore guard – is not really providing much in the way of a contribution off the bench. But Jamie Dixon has to play somebody. He’s hit double figures in one game, and had an okay stretch in Pitt’s second and third ACC games (22 points on 8-of-15 shooting, 2-of-4 from three). In the last five games, though, he’s scored a total of 21 points in 97 minutes on 8-of-28 shooting (1-of-10 from three). He had his worst game at Virginia Tech with 0 points on 0-of-3 shooting, one assist and three turnovers in 17 minutes. Pitt doesn’t have many other bodies. He has to be better.

TEMPO-FREE

Notre Dame had a 113.2 OE against Duke, and it was just the fourth-best against the Blue Devils this season. It was also the lowest OE Duke has given up in a loss this year (but the fourth-highest surrendered by the Blue Devils). Oh, and it was THE FIFTH-WORST OE by Notre Dame THIS YEAR. Ridiculous. … Pitt has now given up an OE of 104.9 or higher in six straight games. From 2002-11, Pitt gave up an OE that high in 86 total games. That’s 10 seasons. In the last three and a half (or 3/4) seasons alone, Pitt has done it 42 times.

NARRATIVES

Notre Dame Win: Hey I mean it’s on the road so that counts for something I guess

Notre Dame Loss: The highest of highs and the lowest of lows are often not too far apart.

Pittsburgh Win: I mean, it’s nice and all, but ultimately…

Pittsburgh Loss: Just go on to sleep, Pit. We all know you want to. Hush now.

PREDICTION

Notre Dame, 84-72. This has letdown written all over it. And this has been such a #goacc week that I'm tempted to go that route instead. But you know what? I don’t like Pitt’s team this year. So I’m going to show a little faith in the Irish.

VIRGINIA TECH (9-11, 1-6) AT WAKE FOREST (9-12, 1-7)

Time: 2:00 p.m.

TV: RSN

#ANALYSIS

Someone has to get a win. But they both already have one, so. You may need protective eyewear if you are exposed to this game for more than 30 minutes at a time. Two areas where this could go awry for Wake is in Virginia Tech’s three-point shooting (the Hokies make nearly 37 percent of their 3’s in league play) and turnovers (Wake turns it over on 17.2 percent of its ACC possessions; Virginia Tech’s defense is forcing turnovers, somehow, on 16.9 percent). If Wake can take care of the ball, get to the foul line and defend the arc reasonably well, they should win reasonably comfortably. Easier said than done against Buzz’s scrappy bunch.

PTP-ERS

Devin Thomas. Look, against Louisville, Duke and Georgia Tech, you scored 72 points (24.0) on 28-of-43 shooting (65.1 percent, plus 16-of-27 from the foul line), adding 30 rebounds (10.0 per), six assists, four blocks and just seven fouls (2.3 per game). In the four games since, you’ve scored 52 points (13.0) on 17-of-38 shooting (18-of-27 from the line). You’ve been consistent with the rebounding (46, or 11.5, in that span). But that’s it. Just three blocks. And 13 fouls. Look, it’s not a bad stretch. But just, I mean, why? Why can’t you do that kind of stuff all the time? You can do it against No. 14, 8 and 77 in Ken Pom, but not 69, 10, 100 or 131? I don’t get it.

Malik Mueller. If you were a Pitt fan watching at home and wondered where Mueller came from – or a Virginia fan, for that matter – that’s because he had a grand total of 14 points in his first five ACC games on 4-of-23 shooting. But in the near-upset of Virginia and Pitt game – the last two – he’s got 31 points on 12-of-30 shooting (5-of-14 from three); he was 4-of-9 from three against Pitt, his most three’s made in a game all year. Obviously, the Hokies need whatever firepower they can get. If it’s from the freshman, fine.

TEMPO-FREE

In the first four ACC games in January, Wake made 90-of-155 two-pointers (58.1 percent). In those games, Wake played Louisville and Duke close at home before beating Georgia Tech and losing at Syracuse in overtime. In the three games since, Wake is 46-of-120 from inside the arc (38.3 percent) - and that includes shooting 47.2 percent from there vs. North Carolina. They’re 29-of-84 in the last two games (34.5 percent). Blech. … On the flip side, three of Virginia Tech’s last four opponents have been under 50 percent from two and they’re shooting a combined 72-of-164 (43.9 percent) in that span.

NARRATIVES

Virginia Tech Win: YOLO

Virginia Tech Loss: Virginia Tech on offense:

Wake Forest Win: Hey another ACC win congratulations

Wake Forest Loss: You were really looking good, Wake. And then…

PREDICTION

Wake, 76-67. Buzz’s club will fight like usual. It won’t be enough.

NO. 23 MIAMI (14-6, 4-3) AT FLORIDA STATE (11-10, 3-5)

Time: 12:30 p.m.

TV: ESPNU

#ANALYSIS

It’s pretty simple for Miami in this one – they’re going to have to start making some shots. They’re not a team that gets on the offensive glass a ton (even though FSU has struggled on the defensive boards) or a team that gets to the line a lot. So, yeah. Shots. FSU makes it tough on the interior to score, and Miami’s not necessarily that kind of team anyway. So Miami’s going to have to make three-pointers. In the four-game stretch starting with the Duke win (during which Miami went 3-1), it hit 38-of-84 three’s (45.2 percent). It hit just 6-of-26 against Georgia Tech. In its four losses to teams not in the top 10, Miami has shot 24-of-100 from three.

PTP-ERS

Angel Rodriguez. Um. Since Duke, the fiery junior has STILL not made a two-pointer in four games (he’d been 15-of-32 to start ACC play, is 0-of-11 since) and overall is shooting just 5-of-37 (5-of-26 from three). He didn’t attempt a free throw for the first time this season against Georgia Tech, and he had five assists to four turnovers. Miami’s not going to win many games when he doesn’t play well. And in just 15 minutes against Georgia Tech, he certainly didn’t.

Boris Bojanovsky. This is twice in a row now where the 7-3 junior has really given Florida State some nice minutes against some tough bigs (North Carolina and Wake); in that span, he’s averaging just 3.5 points but playing 23.5 minutes and blocking 3.0 shots. He turned it over once and had four fouls at North Carolina, but made his only shot attempt. Against Wake, he missed two shots but made 5-of-6 free throws and pulled down seven rebounds. Miami doesn’t really have any traditional bigs and FSU could use all the productive minutes out of Bojo it can get.

TEMPO-FREE

Florida State held Wake to a 105.5 OE, which – while it was the second-highest given up in an FSU win this season – was the second-lowest OE FSU has surrendered in the calendar year (Clemson’s 89.2 was the only one that was worse). … Miami led Georgia Tech post its best OE of the year (114.1). Like, against anyone. It was Georgia Tech’s best OE in nearly a year (the Jackets had a 127.9 against Boston College on February 13, 2014).

NARRATIVES

Miami Win: Winning a game you should win remember what that felt like

Miami Loss: So this has been the progression of Miami’s season to date and also of like the last week or so

Florida State Win: Just like football? Too soon?

Florida State Loss: Whatever.

PREDICTION

Miami, 71-65. These teams have a weird tendency of winning on each other’s home floors. And also, I don’t think Miami will play that poorly two games in a row. I don’t think.

Last week: 12-3 (11-3 ACC)

Overall: 39-12 (38-12 ACC)