NEW YORK — Donald Trump claims a net worth of more than $10 billion and an income of $557 million. But he appears to get there only by overvaluing properties and ignoring his expenses.

POLITICO spoke with more than a dozen financial experts and Trump’s fellow multimillionaires about the presumptive Republican nominee’s latest financial statement. Their conclusion: The real estate magnate’s bottom line — what he actually puts in his own pocket — could be much lower than he suggests. Some financial analysts said this, and a very low tax rate, is why Trump won’t release his tax returns.


“I know Donald; I’ve known him a long time, and it gets under his skin if you start writing about the reasons he won’t disclose his returns,” said one prominent hedge fund manager who declined to be identified by name so as not to draw Trump’s ire. “You would see that he doesn’t have the money that he claims to have and he’s not paying much of anything in taxes.”

Trump is certainly wealthy. But in a campaign where the New Yorker has portrayed himself as the biggest, the richest, the classiest and the best at everything, disclosing that he is less rich than he lets on could be damaging. And it is a line of attack Democrats are already using and hope to pound away on until November.

The case against Trump’s accounting of his wealth: His businesses apparently generate a lot of revenue but may not put much cash in his pocket; he assigns himself a net worth that is impossible to verify and may be based in part on fantasy; and he is selling assets and increasing debt in ways that suggest a man scrambling for ready cash.

In response to a list of questions for this story, Trump campaign spokeswoman Hope Hicks emailed: “The report speaks for itself.” If it does, the 104-page report — which Trump filed with the Federal Election Commission on May 17 — does not speak clearly.

The financial disclosure form showed Trump adding fresh debt of at least $50 million, though a campaign news release said Trump is using increased revenue to reduce his debt, which is now at least $315 million and possibly more than $500 million. The disclosure also suggests that Trump sold fund assets to raise as much as $7 million in cash and individual securities to raise up to $9 million more.

The apparent increase in debt and securities sales raises questions about the amount of cash Trump has on hand.

“If he is swimming in so much cash for all his holdings, why is he selling this stuff to raise cash?” asked another ultra-high-net-worth individual who also reviewed the filings and declined to be identified by name to avoid Trump’s wrath.

Trump’s tax returns could clarify a great deal about his actual income. But Trump’s campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, said in an interview with The Huffington Post last week that he would be “surprised” if Trump ever releases the returns, which is not required but which every major presidential candidate has done since 1976.

Trump attributes the refusal to ongoing audits. But there is no prohibition on individuals releasing returns under scrutiny by the IRS. The refusal has led to rampant speculation among Wall Street executives who have done deals with Trump that his returns would show surprisingly low income.

There is no dispute that Trump owns many valuable properties that contribute to a high net worth. But there is a great deal of dispute about how high that worth actually is. The financial disclosure form lists assets worth at least $1.5 billion, but the ranges included are far too wide for an observer to determine anything close to a precise figure.

“Trump has a tendency to value his brand at a very high amount, but these are usually intangible valuations just pulled out of thin air,” said Steve Stanganelli, a certified financial planner at Clear View Wealth Advisors. “And he appears to be reporting gross revenue. There is a huge difference between that and net income. What really matters is what you put in the bank.”

Estimates of Trump’s net worth range from a low of $150 million to $250 million asserted by journalist Timothy O’Brien in a 2005 book that earned him a libel lawsuit from Trump that was eventually dismissed. O’Brien saw Trump’s tax returns as part of the discovery in that suit but the records were sealed by the court and O’Brien is not allowed to discuss them in any detail.

One revelation made public as part of the suit was that Trump’s valuation of himself and his empire fluctuates based on his own “feelings.” Fortune magazine earlier this month estimated Trump’s net worth at $3.92 billion based on the latest financial disclosure.

A big chunk of Trump’s net worth figure comes from high valuations he bestows on his golf course properties. Trump values nine of his golf properties at “over $50 million” for a total of at least $450 million. He values at least four more at up to $25 million and a fifth at up to $50 million. But golf course valuation experts say there is nothing in the report to support these lofty figures.

“Unless we really know what the income and expenses for the clubs are, it’s impossible to even guess at what the value would be,” said Larry Hirsh, a founder of the Society of Golf Appraisers and the president of Golf Property Analysts. “He’s a classic example of a guy that, when he wants to get a loan or tell you how wealthy he is, he’ll tell you something is worth a bazillion dollars. But when he wants to get taxes reduced, he’ll tell you it’s worth $2.95.”

In fact, a New York state political official accuses Trump of doing exactly that.

On his disclosure report, Trump lists the Trump National Golf Club in Westchester Country, New York, as worth over $50 million. But ABC News and The Guardian newspaper reported earlier this month that for tax purposes, Trump’s attorneys at first argued the property was worth just $1.35 million before increasing the figure to $9 million.

A golf property’s valuation can be much lower for tax purposes than the price it might bring in a sale. Tax authorities don’t take into account what the underlying land might be used for by another owner, along with other variables.

But in this case, this difference was far too great, according to Dana Levenberg, the supervisor for Ossining, New York, which oversees the property. Levenberg argues that Trump’s undervaluation of the property is taking money away from children in the local Briarcliff School District.

“We have somebody on the one hand who has lawyers saying the value is less than $2 million while at the same time he’s claiming it’s worth over $50 million,” Levenberg said in an interview. “And we have seen no revenue or expense forms. It can’t be that he is making all this money but saying he doesn’t have to pay taxes on it. That’s less money for the children in school, less money for learning.”

Trump’s valuations of his golf properties are much higher than recent golf property sales would appear to support. According to Bloomberg, Orlando-based CNL Lifestyle Properties in 2015 sold 48 golf courses, with $158 million in revenue in 2013, for $320 million. Dallas-based ClubCorp Holdings last year agreed to pay $265 million for 50 golf courses with about $100 million in total annual revenue, according to Bloomberg.

Trump also claims high revenues at many of his golf properties.

The biggest revenue generator listed on Trump’s report is Trump National Doral in Miami at $132 million. In total, 14 golf properties listed on the disclosure form provided at least $300 million in revenue, more than half of Trump’s total claimed income, for an average of about $21 million per property.

That is far higher than the revenue typical of many golf courses. But several of Trump’s properties, including Doral, feature multiple courses and revenue-producing resorts, making the numbers somewhat less outlandish. “I would use 23 as the number of courses,” said Steven Ekovich, managing director for the Leisure Investment Properties Group at Marcus & Millichap, who has sold golf properties to Trump and said the revenues “comport with some other high-end clubs.”

Regardless of revenue, Ekovich said, it’s difficult to use any standard revenue-multiple model to evaluate the ultimate worth for golf properties. “It’s really an art form in pricing golf assets because each one is so unique.”

That art form is expected to come under relentless scrutiny from Democrats in a general election campaign that is expected to pit Trump against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The Clinton campaign wants to portray Trump’s business empire as a Potemkin village, showy on the surface, but with little underneath.

People familiar with the matter say Democrats have leading forensic accountants poring over all of Trump’s public records and disclosures with a plan to release whatever they find to support this narrative as the campaign shifts into general election mode this summer and fall.

“Some of the stuff is supposedly dynamite,” one senior Democratic operative with ties to the Clinton campaign said. “They are very confident about the opposition research. But I wouldn't expect anything cataclysmic until the fall.”

Clinton supporters have been taunting Trump on Twitter with the #PoorDonald hashtag and Clinton herself has questioned the mogul’s statements about his wealth. “We’ve got to get below the hype,” Clinton said recently on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “I think we’re beginning to find out, but I don’t think we know enough, and that’s why he should release his tax returns.”

Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has emerged as a high-profile Democratic surrogate prosecuting the case that Trump might not be as rich as he says he is. “We don’t know what Trump pays in taxes because he is the first presidential nominee in 40 years to refuse to disclose his tax returns,” Warren said in a fiery speech last week, followed by an extended Twitter war with the presumptive GOP nominee. “Maybe he’s just a lousy businessman who doesn’t want you to find out that he’s worth a lot less money than he claims.”

Thus far, Trump has proved impervious to this line of argument, backing up claims from Manafort and others that voters simply don’t care about Trump’s tax returns and believe that he is the fabulously successful titan he says he is.

But if anything could damage the Trump brand, some analysts say, it would be persistent revelations about his business record and personal riches. “By any stretch, Trump is rich. But the perception now is that he is richer and huger and better than everyone,” said Stanganelli. “What happens if that perception changes?”

