Demonetization is mostly hurting people who aren’t its intended targets. Because sellers of certain durables, such as jewelry and property, often insist on cash payments, many individuals who have no illegal money build up cash reserves over time. Relatively poor women stash away cash beyond their husbands’ reach, as savings for the children or the household.

Small hoarders often fear being questioned about the source of their money — they are accustomed to being harassed by tax collectors, among others — and may choose instead to forgo some of their savings.

People have also been skimping in response to the new policy, causing demand for certain basic goods to fall, which has hurt farmers and small producers and could eventually lead them to scale back on their activities.

And even more pain is around the corner. With so much money in circulation suddenly ceasing to be legal tender, India’s economic growth is bound to nose-dive. Another risk is that the Indian rupee could depreciate as a result of people and investors moving to more robust currencies.

The government’s demonetization dragnet will no doubt catch some illicit cash. Some people will turn in their black money and pay a penalty; others will destroy part of their illegal stashes in order not to draw attention to their businesses. But the overall benefits will be small and fleeting.

One reason is that the bulk of black money in India isn’t money at all: It’s held in gold and silver, real estate and overseas bank accounts. Another is that even if demonetization can flush out the black money that is held in cash, with no improvement in catching and punishing tax evaders, people with ill-gotten gains will simply start saving in the new bills currently being issued.