In the past few weeks I have been working on putting together code to project "what if" scenarios using xStats. The first results of which you can find in Eno Saris' articles about Justin Bour and dejuicing the baseball. These both made use of the "what if the ball hadn't changed between 2015 and 2017?" what-if scenario. Which is interesting to talk about, but it isn't the only question I have to ask.

Obviously the trade deadline has just passed us by, so that lead to many interesting "what if" questions. What if a player played in a certain stadium? Well, that's what I'm here to talk about today. What would Jonathon Lucroy's stats look like as a Rockie?

In order to address this problem, I wrote a script that measures a batter's batted ball profile. That is, which angles and exit velocities he is more likely to produce, and then created a large pool of "potential batted balls." I then took a large number samples from this pool, and applied them to the remaining schedule for the batter. So, in this case, I imported the Rockies' schedule, selected a bunch of random "potential batted balls", and assigned them to games on the schedule with regard to estimated playing time. I also added in projected strike outs and walks and randomized them in with the batted balls.

I'm not the best at coding, and it might be done more efficiently by someone more proficient, but with this method I can simulate just about 7 seasons in about 30 minutes. In this case I ran the code for about 90 minutes, which came out to about 23 simulated seasons worth of data.

The average results are: