Brexit could fracture British politics forever. I can’t wait With the main parties split, the door may at last be open for proportional representation

Only one thing is certain as a result of the European elections on Thursday. We will get what we deserve. The outcome may not be what many of us had in mind, but all across Europe people will be going to the polls and the subsequent make-up of the European Parliament will reflect the way they cast their votes. Oh, the joy of democracy!

Not many of us will pause to consider the contribution of the 19th-century Belgian mathematician Victor D’Hondt in ensuring that every one of our votes counts, but his system of proportional representation – a method of dicing and slicing the total vote and distributing the number of seats accordingly – is fair, equitable and just.

‘To achieve reform would require a huge number of turkeys to go with the “ayes” when it comes to Christmas. But what if those turkeys had no choice?’ i's opinion newsletter: talking points from today Email address is invalid Email address is invalid Thank you for subscribing! Sorry, there was a problem with your subscription.

These are words that simply can’t be used when it comes to our own parliamentary elections, and if there’s one positive thing to come out of this entire Brexit shambles, it’s that the fallout may force us to look at the way we elect our representatives, and reform a system invented in the 12th century that hasn’t been fit for purpose for quite a lot of the time since.

Our archaic first-past-the-post system principally benefits one group of people – members of parliament. We have a two-party hegemony, and the majority of those who occupy the seats in the Palace of Westminster need do little other than wear the right colour rosette to get elected. The current electoral system preserves and defends the status quo, and the vast number of votes cast for other, smaller parties simply disappears into the ether.

Millions and millions of election slips are not worth the paper on which they are printed. This is not special pleading on behalf of the Liberal Democrats but, for example, consider their position at the 2017 general election. They were the party of choice for 2.4 million people, which represents 7.3 per cent of the vote. They were rewarded with 12 seats, 1.8 per cent of the total. The Tories got six times as many votes as the Lib Dems and 26 times as many seats.

I use these statistics as merely illustrative of the inherent weakness in our democratic process. Yet to achieve reform would require a huge number of turkeys to go with the “ayes” when it comes to Christmas. But what if those turkeys had no choice?

Brexit brings with it the possibility that British politics may be fractured for ever. The two main parties look increasingly unlikely to be able to hold the middle. It is not too fanciful to imagine the Conservative Party going in a number of different directions – Europhiles to the left, Brexiteers to the right, and Esther McVey’s blue collar conservatives somewhere in the middle.

Can Jeremy Corbyn keep the Labour Party together? An ideological implosion over Europe in particular, and much else besides, is a plausible scenario. New Labour, Old Labour, Momentum, People’s Vote enthusiasts – who knows where it will all end? I understand that all political parties are a coalition of ideas bound by common purpose – of which self-preservation may prove to be paramount – but the shifting of tectonic plates caused by Brexit seems destined to cause a political earthquake.

Then we must factor in the emergence of smaller, single cause entities, from Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party to Change UK to the Women’s Equality Party. And, of course, the Greens, for whom half a million people voted in 2017 (they got one seat).

At the next general election, Britain’s voters may have the choice of half a dozen, or more, credible political parties, all with a distinct and convincing outlook on the world. If you’re a left-wing Tory, you won’t have to vote for Boris Johnson, and if you’re a centrist Labour supporter, you’ll have a choice that’s not Corbyn.

At this point, the first-past-the-post system becomes completely unsustainable, even risible. A government could be formed by a party winning, say, 20 per cent of the popular vote. The turkeys will then have to take their chances with Christmas. It would be indefensible to keep a 12th-century system for the realities of 21st-century politics.

Yes, far right parties might get representation at Westminster, but at least their influence would directly reflect their showing at the polls. (Remember that Ukip changed the direction of the country without ever winning a vote. It would have been much harder for them to exercise that amount of influence if they had been part of a just and open parliamentary system.)

I have searched to find a silver lining of the long, dark cloud that has shrouded our politics these past few years. This may be it. And an overhaul of the electoral system brings other benefits, too. An end to adversarial politics and, yes, government by coalition. Just like a modern European democracy, in fact.

Twitter: @Simon_Kelner