Gamescom Preview: Facts and Predictions

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One of the biggest events in gaming takes place this year in Cologne, Germany at the Koelnmesse (Pronounciation | [Kurln-mess-uh]) GmbH (Cologne Trade Fair). While there’s other events hosted at the venue not catered to gamers, such as outdoor activities, social media events, and other event types, the center is focused on gaming this weekend!

Meta Analysis

Today, however, I focus exclusively on Overwatch and the Atlantic Showdown at the venue. Due to recent patch changes, the hero choices took an unexpected shift. To give a quick overview, we have a table of pick rates below compiled from the Atlantic Showdown Qualifiers and Regional Finals. One example: Zenyatta saw very little use before the patches, but is now used in almost every lineup across all maps.

Table 1: Recent Overwatch Hero Usage Summary (heroes with >= 10% usage on any given map type)



Hero Name Payload/Hybrid Defense Payload/Hybrid Offense King of the Hill (KOTH) 2CP Defense 2CP Offense Genji 25.61% 55.70% 50.92% 21.51% 31.49% McCree 90.90% 77.95% 53.15% 27.13% 23.69% Reaper 66.02% 48.56% 47.02% 23.88% 21.85% Tracer 8.80% 10.69% 51.95% 16.84% 15.45% D.Va 24.12% 24.85% 6.96% 4.56% 11.63% Reinhardt 86.78% 70.45% 0.54% 39.71% 21.28% Winston 29.72% 33.46% 87.89% 12.32% 26.83% Zarya 49.62% 58.56% 97.76% 31.20% 40.31% Lucio 98.82% 99.40% 99.99% 49.47% 49.98% Zenyatta 99.22% 98.98% 97.79% 45.97% 45.63%



Percent values are the indication of seeing that hero fill a slot on an attacking team of 6 in 1HL format. For KOTH, it's a single KOTH team. For Attack and Defense, it's for either an attacking or defending team. Any hero that didn’t have above a 10% usage in any map mode is not included on the list. The table results above show at least half of the hero roster is not often, if almost never, played within the competitive scene currently!

Currently, the Season 2 update is implemented on the PTR server. As of right now, I am assuming the changes will not go live before the Atlantic Showdown, but will update the article accordingly if released.

The lists below splits the results above into three types of heroes: Core, Swappable, and Underperforming. Core heroes are the heroes you’ll see in just about every game, Swappable heroes are heroes you’ll see replacing a core hero or alternated, and Underperforming heroes are heroes rarely used and/or mainly used in certain situations. The main assumption is the standard composition of 2-2-2; 2 tank, 2 offense, and 2 support.

Core Heroes

Lucio, Zenyatta, Zarya, Reinhardt, Genji, and McCree

Swappable Heroes

Reaper, Tracer, D.Va, and Winston

Underperforming Heroes





Phara, Soldier: 76, Bastion, Hanzo, Junkrat, Mei, Torbjörn, Widowmaker, Roadhog, Ana, Mercy, Symmetra

Now that I’ve shown you what heroes to expect and not expect this upcoming weekend, I’m going to dive into forecasting for the Atlantic Showdown! Let’s get it started.

Atlantic Weather Forecast

This section is heavily based on speculation and expresses only the author’s opinions/predictions for the gamescom event. Take with a grain of salt!

Our previous article on gamescom showcases the eight teams--split into two groups--participating in the elimination phase. This section is a prediction at who will proceed and how the matches will turn out.

Figure 1: Group 1 Prediction Bracket (Update not shown: Team Dignitas = Creation)

Group 1 Matchups

Misfits vs fnatic.OW

This match is a tough one to predict. Misfits and Fnatic don’t have a match history recorded with each other in the GosuGamers database and both are on a winning streak. Both teams have a near equal chance of winning here as well. Looking at win rates across individual maps and matches, however, Misfits pulls slightly ahead of Fnatic here and may go to 3 sets before securing the win.

Team Dignitas [Creation] vs EnVy

The top team in the world currently, EnVyUs, competes against Team Dignitas (formerly Creation due to a recent acquisition earlier this week. Creation = Team Dignitas in this article!). EnVyUs is going in with a near perfect win streak--55 wins as of writing this article--against teams of all kinds, compared to Creation which suffered a few losses previously. My bet’s going with EnVyUs.

fnatic.OW vs Team Dignitas [Creation]

Moving onto the first round of the lower bracket, we have Fnatic and Team Dignitas. They don’t have much history competing against each other, but Team Dignitas’s loss towards EnVyUs and Luminosity not as their opponent may inspire a close match against Fnatic. Nevertheless, Fnatic’s current streak against high ranked teams such as coL. in Group 2 and Sodipop will get them the win to move on.

EnVy and Misfits

EnVyUs is still on a roll and--while Misfits came through on a possible close game in the first round, they may not have the same mischevious luck with EnVyUs. Both teams have a healthy win streak under their belts, but EnVyUs has the bigger belt and may whip away the streak from Misfits and push them into the lower bracket while EnVyUs moves onto the next stage.

fnatic.OW vs Misfits

We’re back to our first matchup once again! Both teams have a match against each other under their belts and prepared more thoroughly. A lot can happen in the day before a reunion and while the two teams have an equal chance of advancing, Fnatic will make more of their first matchup and gracefully flow through on the second day of the elimination phase and move on with EnVyUs, perhaps by choosing a map Misfits doesn’t win often on.

Expected Qualifiers: EnVyUs and Fnatic

Underdogs: Team Dignitas and Misfits

Figure 2: Group 2 Prediction Bracket

Group 2 Matchups

REUNITED vs coL.

While compLexity won twice in past encounters against REUNITED, I expect REUNITED’s win streak against other top teams in its region, such as Team Liquid and OWKings, will continue here against the North American team compLexity.

Rogue vs Cloud 9

Cloud 9 has a proven track record against multiple teams on multiple maps and won the past three encounters with Rogue--two in ONOG and another within the GosuGamers Weekies. I think C9 will uphold the streak here and move onto Round 2, but not without a fight from Rogue.

coL. Vs Rogue

For the first lower bracket match, Rogue and compLexity will be a close one; about as close as the predicted REUNITED vs Cloud 9 match. The rank 6 and rank 7 teams may end with a set for each team, but I’m expecting Rogue to come out on top here.

REUNITED vs Cloud 9

I’m personally hyped for this possible matchup, as I’m placing both the rank 2 and rank 3 teams together for round 2’s upper bracket match. These two teams don’t have much recent history fighting against each other, so anything can happen. I’m expecting REUNITED to soar above Cloud 9 and secure the final win, however.

Cloud 9 vs Rogue

The match where round 2 meets round 2. Rogue, after suffering the damage from the first match, is coming around better prepared and with new approaches. The match will be closer than the first time around, but Cloud 9 is still expected to continue on and qualify alongside REUNITED.

Expected Qualifiers: REUNITED and Cloud 9

Underdogs: Rogue and coL.

Conclusion

The matches I’m looking forward to the most are Misfits against Fnatic and REUNITED against Cloud 9. They have win rates close to each other, similar rankings across maps they’ve played, and--in Misfits and Fnatic’s case--we get to see a matchup rarely streamed. On Group 2, I’d still expect REUNITED to win against Rogue as well in round 2 of the lower bracket if they lost to Cloud 9 in the upper bracket, which still makes the expected qualifiers REUNITED and Cloud 9.

For more competitive Overwatch news, follow us @GosuOverwatch.

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