The debate raged right from the start of the warm-up on Saturday night, as when James Reimer led the Toronto Maple Leafs off the bench, it was clear he would be starting in goal against the Chicago Blackhawks.

James Reimer?

Against one of the best teams in the league?

Setting aside the question of whether or not Jonathan Bernier should be the team's undisputed No. 1, it was the right call – and not only in hindsight, given Reimer went on to play brilliantly in the third period to secure the 3-2 win.

Statistically speaking, it's almost never a good decision to start a goalie two nights in a row, and Bernier had started in Columbus on Friday.

Eric Tulsky, a hockey statistician and Harvard grad who's now crunching numbers for NHL teams, did the definitive work on this question back in 2013. He compared the save percentages of rested goalies playing the second game of a back-to-back to tired goalies playing the second game and found that the rested goalies outperformed them dramatically.

On average, the tired goalies' save percentage was only .901, well below the league average. The rested goalies' was .912, which is closer to what you should expect from a capable backup. That's a difference of preventing an extra goal every three games, which really adds up over a season.

This is a good rule of thumb for the Leafs to keep in mind, in particular, as they have 18 back-to-backs this year, tied for the third most in the NHL. The team's new analytics group will likely advise coach Randy Carlyle that those should be 18 guaranteed starts for Reimer, regardless of how well Bernier is playing.

On Saturday, making the switch paid off when the tired Leafs wilted in the third period. They were outshot 26-7 and out-attempted 47-12, but Reimer stood tall, making several terrific stops for his third win of the year.

Even if you believe Bernier is a far superior goalie – which is debatable given their career save percentages are .918 and .915 – the rest factor outweighs any advantage.

Especially when you consider the injury risk a tired goalie could face.