The environmental twist perhaps makes BP’s disastrous Gulf of Mexico oil spill a better comparison. Initial total cost estimates by analysts were as low as $3.5 billion. The final bill under the Clean Water Act was $5.5 billion, less than half the maximum fine. But BP’s other costs, including damages, ballooned. All in, BP ended up setting aside almost $55 billion in fines, compensation and cleanup costs.

The Clean Air Act allows the Environmental Protection Agency to charge up to $37,500 a vehicle for any breaches. With 482,000 affected cars, that’s $18 billion. The E.P.A. could be kinder than that, but Volkswagen, run by Martin Winterkorn, cheated government tests for six years, dissembled when confronted and meanwhile lauded Volkswagen’s status as an environmentally sustainable carmaker.

Volkswagen can pay $18 billion, over time, and retain its credit rating. It has €21 billion in net cash, with more coming from planned divestitures.

That, though, doesn’t factor in other costs, including recalls, refits, vehicle buybacks and class-action lawsuits – or the possibility that Volkswagen’s emissions shenanigans were more pervasive. Diesel cars account for more than half its sales in Europe, its largest market, though with more lenient nitrogen oxide standards. If the scandal undermines the business case for Volkswagen’s diesel engines, a €16.6 billion drop in value will look like a country jaunt.