POLITICO Playbook: The case for Trump to shut down the government Presented by Amazon

A government shutdown could be President Donald Trump’s last chance to get a border wall. | Ethan Miller/Getty Images

DRIVING THE DAY

THE POLITICAL CASE FOR PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP TO SHUT DOWN THE GOVERNMENT … If you’re Trump, is there any cogent case to NOT shut down the government one week from today? Here is what a few of the president's allies are whispering to us.

-- IT WOULDN’T HURT TOO BADLY ... Congress has already passed a bunch of government spending bills, ensuring a shutdown would only be a partial stoppage of government funding. Trump has bills on his desk that fund critical parts of government. Much of the money Trump wants would come in Department of Homeland Security appropriations. So if he wanted to take a stand, it would be narrowly targeted to one department.

-- THIS IS WHAT HE PROMISED … If you are a Republican lawmaker who believes that the 2016 election was about Trump’s hard-line immigration policies -- as many conservatives tell us they do -- shouldn’t you take a stand on that while you can? Shouldn’t Republicans fear their base is going to stay home if an all-Republican Washington blows it on the wall?

-- WASHINGTON MIGHT NOT BE RED FOR LONG … This could be the president’s last chance to get a wall. The House is looking like it could be lost come January. No chance in hell that the leftward-drifting House will give him the wall if they get the majority in 2019. Zero. Zip. Zilch. If Ds win the House, there is no chance the president will get a wall in the lame duck, either.

-- WON’T HILL REPUBLICANS FIND A WAY TO FOLD? … Think of this: in this scenario, DHS will have no money 39 days before the election. Who is more likely to fold: Trump, who is still fuming he folded last time? Or House Republicans, who will be incentivized to put the episode behind them so they can get home to campaign? And Senate Republicans seem to be drifting ever closer to the president.

OF COURSE, Hill Republicans say they’re adamantly against a shutdown. And there would be other political and substantive pain that came along with a narrow government shutdown. But you can easily see Washington getting there. And Democrats are running on government dysfunction, so if Republicans get close, the minority have no incentive to help out.

46 DAYS until Election Day. (Phish has a song called “46 Days,” in case you are into that.)

Good Friday morning. JUST POSTED … WHAT TEAM PELOSI IS DEVOURING ... BLOOMBERG’S JOSH GREEN: “Internal GOP Poll: Pelosi Beats Trump in a Head-to-Head Matchup”: “President Trump likes to mock Nancy Pelosi, but a private survey conducted for the [RNC] finds that she’s actually more popular—and beats the president when the midterm election is framed as a contest between the two.

“The internal poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and obtained by Bloomberg Businessweek, asks registered voters who they support ‘when the November election is framed by Trump and Pelosi.’ Overall, respondents prefer Pelosi-aligned candidates over Trump-aligned candidates by 5 points, 50 percent to 45 percent. Among independents only, Pelosi still prevails by a 4-point margin. The poll was completed on Sept. 2.” Bloomberg

-- BLOOMBERG’S SAHIL KAPUR and JOSH GREEN: “Internal GOP Poll: ‘We’ve Lost the Messaging Battle’ on Tax Cuts”

THE NRCC reported raising $5 million in September, compared to the DCCC’s $15 million.

THE LATEST ON BRETT KAVANAUGH …

BURGESS EVERETT and ELANA SCHOR: “Accuser’s camp floats Thursday testimony, other conditions in talks with Senate”: “Christine Blasey Ford’s attorneys held a high-stakes call with Republicans and Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee Thursday night that ended with no decision on when or if Ford will testify about allegations that Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

“One source described the call as ‘positive,’ though there is no ironclad agreement to have Ford appear and Ford’s attorneys made some requests that the committee won’t accommodate — such as subpoenaing Mark Judge, whom Ford alleged was in the room when Kavanaugh groped and forced himself on her while both were in high school. Senate Republicans had planned a Monday hearing and sought an agreement by Friday morning to appear, though those are no longer viewed as a hard deadline.

“Ford lawyers Debra Katz and Lisa Banks spoke to staff from Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and ranking member Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) about possible scenarios for an appearance next week. And Ford seems amenable to a public hearing after being offered a private one, though with some stipulations.” POLITICO

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WHAT EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT -- WaPo’s Seung Min Kim, Josh Dawsey and Emma Brown: “Ed Whelan, a former clerk to the late justice Antonin Scalia and president of the Ethics and Public Policy Center, pointed to floor plans, online photographs and other information to suggest a location for the house party in suburban Maryland that Ford described.

“He also named and posted photographs of the classmate he suggested could be responsible. Ford dismissed Whelan’s theory in a statement late Thursday: ‘I knew them both, and socialized with’ the other classmate, Ford said, adding that she had once visited him in the hospital. ‘There is zero chance that I would confuse them.’

“Republicans on Capitol Hill and White House officials immediately sought to distance themselves from Whelan’s claims and said they were not aware of his plans to identify the former classmate, now a middle school teacher, who could not be reached for comment and did not answer the door at his house Thursday night. Whelan did not respond to requests for comment.

“He had told people around him that he had spent several days putting together the theory and thought it was more convincing than her story, according to two friends who had talked to him. Whelan has been involved in helping to advise Kavanaugh’s confirmation effort and is close friends with both Kavanaugh and Leonard Leo, the head of the Federalist Society who has been helping to spearhead the nomination. Kavanaugh and Whelan also worked together in the Bush administration.” WaPo

-- @GarrettVentry, communications adviser for Senate Judiciary: “To reporters asking: The Senate Judiciary Committee had no knowledge or involvement.”

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WHERE PRESIDENT TRUMP’S AT ... via Brent D. Griffiths: “President Donald Trump on Thursday night questioned why ‘somebody’ did not contact the FBI 36 years ago when Christine Blasey Ford alleges she was sexually assaulted by now-Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

“‘You could say why didn’t someone call the FBI 36 years ago?’ Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity in a live interview before a rally in Las Vegas. ‘You can also say, when did this all happen? What is going on?’ Since Ford came forward on Sunday night, Trump has defended his Supreme Court pick, but had not explicitly criticized Ford. …

“Trump added that he still wants to hear [what] Ford has to say, but cautioned that the Senate Judiciary Committee has delayed its consideration of Kavanaugh long enough. ‘I don’t think you can delay it any longer. I think they have delayed it a week already,’ Trump said.” POLITICO

-- JEREMY PETERS and ELIZABETH DIAS on NYT A1: “Evangelical Leaders Are Frustrated at G.O.P. Caution on Kavanaugh Allegation”

YA CAN’T MAKE IT UP -- “SC GOP congressman jokes about Abraham Lincoln groping amid Kavanaugh Supreme Court drama,” by The Post and Courier’s Jamie Lovegrove: “South Carolina Republican congressman Ralph Norman made light Thursday of the ongoing drama surrounding Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, opening an election debate by joking that another judge has emerged with her own accusations of sexual assault. ‘Did y’all hear this latest late-breaking news from the Kavanaugh hearings?’ said Norman, R-Rock Hill, at a Kiwanis Club debate.

“‘Ruth Bader Ginsburg came out that she was groped by Abraham Lincoln.’ ... Norman’s line appeared to elicit some scattered laughter and applause from the Kiwanis Club of Rock Hill crowd but sparked immediate condemnation from South Carolina Democrats and many others on social media.” Post and Courier

-- L.A. TIMES’ JOE MOZINGO: “Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, in a tight race to retain his Orange County seat, ridiculed the decades-old allegation of sexual assault that has thrown the Supreme Court nomination of Brett Kavanaugh into turmoil, according to a recording acquired by Talking Points Memo.

“‘This guy who’s going to be our Supreme Court justice … and he better be our Supreme Court judge, he’s a perfect candidate. And what do they say? ‘Well, in high school you did this.’ High school? Give me a break.’” L.A. Times

REPUBLICANS WE SPEAK TO say if it appears Ford is willing to testify, the Judiciary Committee can’t say it’s Monday or bust. They need to be a smidge more accommodating than that.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- HOW THE DEMS ARE GOING TO ATTACK -- ULTRAVIOLET is releasing a new TV ad in West Virginia, Nevada and Arizona and digital ads in Maine, Alaska and Texas targeting Republicans on the Kavanaugh appointment. Called “Senator, You’re Mistaken,” the ad says Republicans are “still blaming a survivor of sexual assault instead of believing her” and “Don’t put another sexual predator on the Supreme Court.” It is expected to run until the hearing. The West Virginia ad

MORE THREATS -- WSJ’s Kristina Peterson, Peter Nicholas and Natalie Andrews: “Judge Kavanaugh’s wife, Ashley Estes Kavanaugh, also has faced threats, which are being investigated by the U.S. Marshals Service, a senior administration official said Thursday. She has received two profane notes on her work email account in recent days, the official said. Both notes, which have been reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, were sent from the same email address.

“One of the notes to Mrs. Kavanaugh, a town manager in the suburbs of Washington, D.C., reads, ‘May you, your husband and your kids burn in hell.’ The other, whose subject line reads, ‘Hi, Ashley,’ says she should tell her husband to ‘put a bullet in his…skull.’ One person close to the confirmation process said that while Mrs. Kavanaugh is upset by the attacks on her husband, she doesn’t want him to withdraw.” WSJ

CALLING FOR BACKUP -- “Kavanaugh accuser leans on Democratic operative for advice,” by Annie Karni: “Christine Blasey Ford, the woman who has accused Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her when they were both teenagers, is being advised by Democratic operative Ricki Seidman. Seidman, a senior principal at TSD Communications, in the past worked as an investigator for Sen. Ted Kennedy, and was involved with Anita Hill’s decision to testify against Supreme Court Nominee Clarence Thomas.” POLITICO

INSIDE THE MONEY RACE … DCCC got $100,000 from Eli Broad and $10,000 from Shonda Rhimes. … RNC got $33,900 from Stephen Schwarzman. … SENATE MAJORITY PAC (Senate Democrats) got $1.4 million from George Soros, $1 million from Seth Klarman, $500,000 from Ron Burkle, $200,000 from Steven Spielberg, $125,000 from Steven Rattner. …

… DNC got $333,900 from Seth Klarman. SENATE LEADERSHIP PAC (Senate Republicans) got $1 million from the Pilot Corporation and $500,000 from Koch Industries. HOUSE MAJORITY PAC got $3,053,000 from Reid Hoffman and $2 million from Seth Klarman.

2018 WATCH -- NYT’s KATIE ROGERS and MAGGIE HABERMAN, “Trump Sees a ‘Red Wave’ Where His Party Sees a Red Alert”: “During a discussion about his party’s legislative high points this year with a small group at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce last week, Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, expressed a new concern about an old habit of President Trump’s. The many ‘distractions’ generated by the president, Mr. McConnell said during the dinner, were preventing Republicans from having a coherent message for the midterm elections focused on the booming economy, according to multiple people who were briefed on the remarks.

“Representative Paul D. Ryan, the House speaker, who also attended, expressed another concern — that the president’s talk with his supporters of a ‘red wave’ in November was unfounded. All agreed that he should instead be sounding the alarm about the possibility of big Democratic gains. The two congressional leaders were only echoing the worries of many Republican strategists and Mr. Trump’s own advisers.” NYT

-- “Democrats threaten GOP governors’ dominance in Midwest,” by Daniel Strauss: “Democrats are surging back in the Midwestern states where President Donald Trump cut deepest into their old coalition in 2016, led by a class of candidates for governor that have Republicans on their heels.

“The Republican Governors Association cut the size of its ad buys in Minnesota and then in Michigan, according to Advertising Analytics data reviewed by POLITICO. That’s given Democrats increasing confidence that Gretchen Whitmer, their nominee in a state Hillary Clinton lost in stunning fashion, will capture the governor’s mansion.

“In Wisconsin, Republican Gov. Scott Walker has not led a public survey in three months, and the most recent gold-standard poll from Marquette University showed him trailing Democrat Tony Evers by 5 points. And in Ohio, Democrat Richard Cordray has overcome early complaints about his campaign to pull even with Republican Mike DeWine in one of the most competitive races in the country.” POLITICO

COMING ATTRACTIONS -- “Post-election House Dems could quiz Trump Jr., Hicks and others on Russia,” by Darren Samuelsohn and Kyle Cheney: “Several lawmakers in line to take powerful committee posts have prepared lists of people to summon for what could be the House’s first public hearings on the subject. The House Intelligence Committee quizzed several associates of President Donald Trump about alleged collusion with the Kremlin, but only behind closed doors.

“Those likely to be hauled over to Capitol Hill include close Trump associates like the president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., former White House communications director Hope Hicks and the current White House social media director, Dan Scavino. Trump Jr. and Hicks have appeared before the House intelligence panel but, Democrats complain, gave incomplete answers in their testimony.” POLITICO

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THE INVESTIGATIONS -- “Hackers Went After a Now-Disgraced G.O.P. Fund-Raiser. Now He Is After Them,” by NYT’s David D. Kirkpatrick: “Republican fund-raiser Elliott Broidy ... is not going quietly. His lawyers said this week that, after more than 80 subpoenas and months of forensic analysis, they had managed to identify as many as 1,200 other individuals targeted by the same cybercriminals.

“The list of names the lawyers compiled, they argue, will bolster Mr. Broidy’s case that the rulers of Qatar — the tiny Persian Gulf emirate that is a nemesis of the U.A.E.— had targeted him for his advocacy against them. Many of the other targets are well-known enemies of Qatar: senior officials of the U.A.E. and also of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Syria; American, British and Dutch commentators known for their criticism of Qatar; and two former employees of a Washington public affairs firm with U.A.E. ties.” NYT

-- “Michael Cohen spoke to Mueller team for hours; asked about Russia, possible collusion, pardon: Sources,” by ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, Eliana Larramendia and James Hill: “President Donald Trump’s former personal attorney, Michael Cohen, has participated over the last month in multiple interview sessions lasting for hours with investigators from the office of special counsel, Robert Mueller, sources tell ABC News.

“The special counsel’s questioning of Cohen ... has focused primarily on all aspects of Trump's dealings with Russia -- including financial and business dealings and the investigation into alleged collusion with Russia by the Trump campaign and its surrogates to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, sources familiar with the matter tell ABC News.

“Investigators were also interested in knowing, the sources say, whether Trump or any of his associates discussed the possibility of a pardon with Cohen.” ABC

TRUMP’S FRIDAY -- The president will participate in a supporter roundtable in Las Vegas this morning before heading to the VA Southern Nevada Healthcare System, where he will deliver remarks and participate in a signing ceremony. In the afternoon, he will fly to Springfield, Mo., where he will participate in another supporter roundtable and headline a political rally Afterward, the president will fly to Newark, N.J., en route to Bedminster.

PLAYBOOK READS

PHOTO DU JOUR: President Donald Trump supporters cheer at a Las Vegas rally Thursday. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo

SUNDAY SO FAR …

CBS “Face the Nation”: Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.) ... Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.). Political panel: Dan Balz, Reihan Salam, Seung Min Kim and Amy Walter

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo ... Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) ... Panel: Jason Miller, Bob Woodward, Gillian Turner and Juan Williams. Power Player: D.C. United’s Wayne Rooney

CNN “State of the Union”: Nikki Haley ... Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii). Panel: Carrie Severino, Jennifer Granholm, Amanda Carpenter and Karine Jean-Pierre

ABC “This Week”: Matthew Dowd, Cokie Roberts, Chris Christie, Patrick Gaspard, Sheryl Gay Stolberg

NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) ... new NBC News/WSJ poll numbers

CNN “Inside Politics”: Mike Bender, Catherine Lucey, Manu Raju and Rachael Bade

SPORTS BLINK -- “LeBron James Is Already Winning Hollywood,” by The Hollywood Reporter’s Marisa Guthrie: “Asked if it bothers him that the president called him dumb, James just laughs. ‘No, because I’m not,’ he says. ‘That’s like somebody saying I can’t play ball. That doesn’t bother me at all. What bothers me is that he has time to even do that. He has the most powerful job in the world. Like, you really got this much time that you can comment on me?’” THR

BUSINESS BURST -- “Wells Fargo to Cut Jobs Over Next Three Years,” by WSJ’s Emily Glazer and Josh Beckerman: “Wells Fargo plans to cut as many as 26,500 jobs over the next three years as it adjusts to changing consumer behavior and works to recover from a series of scandals that have gripped the bank for the past two years.

“The bank on Thursday said it expects head count to fall by about 5% to 10%, including layoffs as well as typical attrition. Wells Fargo had about 265,000 employees at the end of the second quarter. The cuts are occurring as Wells Fargo contends with a number of federal and state investigations after a fake-account scandal in its consumer bank exposed problems throughout all of its major business units.” WSJ

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VALLEY TALK -- “Google Workers Discussed Tweaking Search Function to Counter Travel Ban,” by WSJ’s John D. McKinnon and Douglas MacMillan: “Days after the Trump administration instituted a controversial travel ban in January 2017, Google employees discussed ways they might be able to tweak the company’s search-related functions to show users how to contribute to pro-immigration organizations and contact lawmakers and government agencies, according to internal company emails.

“The email traffic, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, shows that employees proposed ways to ‘leverage’ search functions and take steps to counter what they considered to be ‘islamophobic, algorithmically biased results from search terms ‘Islam’, ‘Muslim’, ‘Iran’, etc.” and “prejudiced, algorithmically biased search results from search terms ‘Mexico’, ‘Hispanic’, ‘Latino’, etc.’

“The email chain, while sprinkled with cautionary notes about engaging in political activity, suggests employees considered ways to harness the company’s vast influence on the internet in response to the travel ban. Google said none of the ideas discussed were implemented.” WSJ

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MEDIAWATCH -- Fin Gomez is joining CBS as a White House producer, and Katie Watson has been named White House reporter for the CBS website. Gomez spent 13 years at Fox News and most recently was the lead producer for Fox's chief White House correspondent, and Watson has been a politics reporter for CBSNews.com.

-- Fred Barbash will cover legal affairs for The Washington Post. He most recently has spent almost four years as the editor of WaPo’s Morning Mix.

PLAYBOOKERS

SPOTTED: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) on the 5:40 p.m. Southwest direct to Austin, talking on his cellphone as he made his way to the A1 boarding position. “He was watching Bret Baier ... on his iPad with big silver headphones. (Topics: the ‘Kavanaugh Controversy’ and Trump declassifying Russian stuff),” according to our tipster ... Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) ordering Dunkin’ Donuts at DCA before boarding the 2:30 American Airlines flight to Boston -- pic ... Kellyanne Conway eating lunch on Thursday at the Oval Room on Connecticut Avenue.

TRANSITION -- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: JONATHAN SMITH is joining Uber’s federal policy team in October. He was most recently chief of staff to Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.).

SPOTTED at Ben and Ashley Chang’s D.C. going-away party last night at the Gibson: Rebecca Cooper, Gloria Dittus, Natasha Bertrand, Craig Gordon, John Hudson, Lynn Sweet, Emily Horne, Steve Clemons, Evelyn Farkas, Mark Tavlarides, Izzy Klein, Kevin Griffis, Steve Rademaker, Betsy Woodruff, Josh Meyer, Richard Parker, Mike Dorning, Jay Newton-Small, Susan Toffler, Luis Miranda, Marcus Brauchli and Maggie Farley, Kevin Cirilli, Andrew Albertson, Brad Klapper, Brad Bosserman, Megan Devlin, Moira Whelan, Alice Lloyd and Scott Mulhauser.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Cass Sunstein, professor at Harvard and an Obama WH alum who is working on a new book about human error with Daniel Kahneman and Olivier Sibony, is 64. A fun fact about Cass: “I am an avid squash player, and occasionally play in professional tournaments (the smallest ones, I hasten to add). I’m now ranked 462 in the world. Of course there are lots and lots of people who are much better than I am who haven’t joined the professional tour -- still, I love the game.” Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Brianna Keilar, CNN senior Washington correspondent and anchor ... Kiki Burger, account director in the LA office of Sunshine Sachs (hubby tip: Tim) ... Shealah Craighead, the White House photographer (hat tip: Peter Watkins) ... Mike Walsh, chief of staff for the Department of Commerce (h/t Becca Glover) … Maggie Dougherty, senior policy adviser for U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley … Dean Baquet is 62 ... former CIA Director James Woolsey is 77 … Melanie Steele, legislative counsel for Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho) ... former Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear is 74 ... former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is 61 ... Ashley Tate-Gilmore is 35 ... POLITICO’s Karey Van Hall and Jessica Andrews … Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) is 53 … Anna Greenberg, partner at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (h/t Jon Haber) ... former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Samantha Power, now a professor at Harvard Kennedy School (h/t Ben Chang) ...

… Brian Roehrkasse, VP of external comms at BAE Systems (h/t Blain Rethmeier) ... Massachusetts GOP’s Andrew Mahaleris is 24 (h/t Drew McCoy) ... NBC News PR’s Dominique Cuce ... Georgette Spanjich, VP of Plurus Strategies, is 3-0 (h/t Sarah Litke) … Charles Garrison ... Ian Russell, principal at Beacon Media ... Erin Graefe Dorton of Prime Policy Group … Zeke Turner ... Patricia Summers Edwards, head of comms at the British Consulate General in NYC ... Elizabeth Wiebe ... Laurel Ruza ... Monica Carmean ... Matt Thorn ... Justin Reilly ... CQ Roll Call’s Toula Vlahou ... Lydia Stuckey ... John Celock ... Jonathan Robinson ... Rachel Barth ... Lisa King ... Daniel Webber ... Sarah Sibley … John McKechnie … Chelsie Paulson … Kelly Lindner ... Dan Turrentine is 41 ... Mike Veselik ... Soren Dorius

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