Oregon passes Florida State in second BCS standings

George Schroeder | USA TODAY Sports

It shouldn't have startled anyone that Oregon has passed Florida State in the BCS race. The Seminoles ranked No. 2 last week in the initial BCS standings — one day after a dominant 51-14 victory at Clemson in what had been billed as a showdown of national championship contenders — but the Ducks' schedule was backloaded with opponents that impress the computer rankings.

Alabama remains No. 1. The battle is between the Ducks and Seminoles for the second slot in the BCS national championship game. If all three teams keep winning — and that, of course, is the hard part — and the minds of voters in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches and Harris polls remain unchanged, it will come down to the computers — which should increasingly favor Oregon.

The only thing surprising at all is that the flip-flop took only one week. Oregon's 42-14 victory over UCLA — which last week ranked No. 12 in the BCS (and has fallen to No. 20) — provided enough of a bump to make the change. It could conceivably flip again this week, when Oregon is idle and Florida State plays No. 7 Miami. But long-term — which in BCS terms, means November — the numbers should lean Oregon's way.

No. 4 Ohio State and No. 6 Baylor, the two other remaining unbeatens from major conferences, need Alabama, Oregon or Florida State to lose — and maybe more than that — to move into position for the BCS championship. Despite an 8-0 record, Baylor ranks behind one-loss Stanford. Both the Bears and Buckeyes are hurt by perceived soft schedules.

That's not an issue with Oregon, at least not from here out. Of the three contenders, Oregon's remaining schedule appears most difficult. On Nov. 7, the Ducks play at No. 5 Stanford. After games with Utah and Arizona, they'll close the regular season with an Oregon State team that, while unranked this week after a close loss to Stanford, is 6-2. And if they win the Pac-12 North, they would conceivably play another ranked opponent (perhaps UCLA again) in the conference championship game.

Aside from unbeaten Miami, none of Florida State's remaining opponents is ranked in the BCS standings. The cumulative record is 12-17, though the Seminoles would also play in the ACC championship game.

A week ago, Florida State ranked No. 1 in the computer portion of the formula; Oregon was No. 4. This week, the Ducks moved up to No. 2 in the computers — and Florida State, despite a 49-17 victory over North Carolina State, dropped to No. 3 (Alabama moved up to No. 1).

The two other undefeated teams in FBS football, Fresno State and Northern Illinois, rank Nos. 16 and 17, respectively, and won't factor in the BCS championship race. Their rankings are important, however, because the higher-ranked team is guaranteed a BCS bowl berth if it finishes ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS standings or if it is ranked in the top 16 and finishes ahead of the champion of an automatic-qualifying conference. Currently, American Athletic Conference contenders Central Florida and Louisville rank 23rd and 19th, respectively.

George Schroeder, a national college football reporter for USA TODAY Sports, is on Twitter @GeorgeSchroeder.