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Craig Moffett of the eponymous Moffett Nathanson research firm, today warns investors that the combined market caps of T-Mobile US (TMUS) and Sprint (S) reflects what their market cap would likely be if they got together, implying that the stocks already bake in an acquisition that he sees as increasingly unlikely.

Moffett takes his cue from this morning's earnings report by T-Mobile, which included an outlook for free cash flow in 2019 of $4.5 billion, which is spot-on, he says, with what the Street was hoping to hear.