Its disappointing that in an article about so called experts, a number of the key references used are either false or used without providing any context. It really appears that this article has been written with just a superficial glance of the data, secondary sources that haven't been fact checked and no real research.



For the record I am a UK citizen currently living in Switzerland with a wife from the EU - I would have voted against Brexit as it is not in my personal interest (economically as a higher earning and personally having a wife from the EU who would like to move to the UK). However I am an Eu skeptic. Most importantly I take a lot of interest in the data coming out and have a genuine interest in it.



As to some key points in the article..



"with spending in the second quarter of this year falling to its lowest level in four years."



This is simply false - there is no source, but I believe this is simply taken from a secondardy source - a headline by the Independent newspaper based upon Visa data. In actual fact the Independent got the data wrong - Visa showed that for the first time in 4 years spending had decreased year over year for 3 consecutive months, however the Visa data shows that while spending has dropped slightly below 2016 it remains well above 2015. Visa data is also only a subset and while usually a good indicator, for Q2 it does not align with ONS data that shows retail sales increased both in volume and value year over year.



"British consumer confidence is down"



It took a hit due to the election and is slightly lower than the period immediately pre-Brexit, but remains around about middle range based on historical levels - higher than 2012/2013 and only marginally below the average for the period 2002 to 2007 when the UK was in an economic boom.



"New car sales have been down for four consecutive months."



Q1-2017 had record sales, 6.2% increased on 2016 with March 2017 being the record month. The reason was a large pull forward of purchases due to Vehicle Excise Duty changes coming into effect from 1st April 2017. It was absolutely inevitable and predicted by the Industry that Q2 would see both year on year and a quarter over quarter drop due to this impact. First year sales for 2017 were overall just 1.3% lower than 2016 with 2016 being the record year and again the Motor Industry had forecast this as they believed 2016 was the peak of the replacement cycle and could not be maintained. All this information can be verified at www.smmt.co.uk which is the UK car industry body.



"The BoE forecasts a whopping 20% decline in business investment in the coming years, whereas Brexit’s champions predicted the opposite."



This seems to be using forecasts to validate other forecasts.



"front-loaded their spending in the second half of last year, because they understood that import prices would rise"



Is there any evidence for this - Q4-2016 was indeed an absolutely booming quarter which has resulted in growth in Q1 being hard to come by, but it seems rather due to a buoyant consumer than any fears of inflation. In actual fact Q2-2017 was relatively healthy with services growing by 0.5% - overall growth was held back by manufacturing and a large part of that due to car production as manufacturers re-tooled for new models - the second half of 2017 is forecast for record car production by the industry which will provide a major boost to GDP. Construction is slightly more concerning as this is struggling.



" Having incurred additional debt, they are now in no position to continue spending at that earlier pace."



Debt is still rising fairly rapidly signalling a reasonably confident consumer and remains well below 2007 peak on household debt to GDP basis and even further below (8% versus 12%) servicing costs as a percentage of household income.



"Sterling’s substantial depreciation, moreover, augurs a significant rise in inflation, which means that the BoE will have to start raising interest rates sooner rather than later."



This is just a statement with no research - inflation appears to have peaked already. It will likely bounce around between 2.5% and 3% for a few months (currently 2.6%), but leading indicators such as input prices and shop prices from the ONS surveys are showing that inflation drivers are easing as the FX change has become fully reflected in the data and will start to fall away - as I say inflation may stay slightly elevated (if you call 2.5% to 3% elevated) by the BoE now are certainly not predicting further significant increases in inflation and forecast it will start to reduce in 2018 and head below 2%. There is no way the BoE will raise interest rates to try and head off FX driven inflation which will not come anyway.



The UK economy has undoubtedly slowed - 2013-2015 saw significant increases in employment which drove aggregate wages significantly higher and was the engine. This UK finished this cycle in 2015/2016 - the next driver of growth in a tight labour market should have been productivity but this has just not happened and pre-dates Brexit. A very strong Q4-2016 was always going to make growth in Q1-2017 hard to come by without productivity driving gains and while Brexit uncertainty and inflation is clearly a factor I'm far from convinced it is the only and even main driver. The UK economy certainly has tough times ahead and I have no wish to play down the risks of Brexit, but sloppy pieces like this cannot be excused and simply damage the so-called experts.