The first statewide look at mail ballot returns in Colorado shows Democrats with a surprising early edge.

Colorado voters registered as Democrats returned 48,030 ballots in the first week after election officials put them in the mail, compared with 36,790 Republicans and 27,435 unaffiliated.

The state numbers released Monday for Colorado’s first mail-ballot presidential election reflect ballots counted through Sunday in most counties. So far, 113,932 ballots have been received, or about 4 percent of the total number mailed to voters.

The 2016 turnout is 44 percent higher than at this point in the 2014 election, the only previous statewide mail ballot contest. In 2014, voters returned 79,355 ballots at this point, according to figures from the secretary of state’s office.

The increase reflects greater interest in a presidential election year, compared with the 2014 midterms, as well as the heightened intrigue in the divisive 2016 campaign. But political experts are expressing caution about over-interpreting the results this year, given the topsy-turvy presidential election.

The numbers are expected to increase now that voting service and polling centers opened Monday, allowing in-person early voting and more mail ballot drop-off locations.

The strong Democratic turnout runs counter to the 2014 trend, when Republican voters returned more ballots in the final 16 days before the election. (See the data comparing 2016 to 2014 ballot returns updated every day.)

About 30 percent more Democrats returned ballots than Republicans. The Democratic advantage is stark in Pueblo, a key swing area, and Denver, the state’s population center.

“Clearly, there is a comparative engagement factor,” said Rick Ridder, a prominent Democratic strategist in Colorado. “Whether it’s bigger or better than 2012 or 2014 is irrelevant. What’s important is the ratio between Democrats and Republicans.”

Democrats downplayed expectations leading into the mail ballot period, noting that nearly one in four party members and one in three unaffiliated voters waited until Election Day to return their ballots.

The early numbers also show distinct geographic differences. Arapahoe County — one of the state’s top swing districts — is leading the state in ballot returns, even though it ranks fourth in terms of active voters.

The other counties outperforming their registration numbers: liberal-minded Boulder County and more conservative Mesa County. Jefferson County, another top swing territory, led the way in early voting at this point in 2014 but now proportionally ranks below its neighbors.

Owen Loftus, a Republican consultant in Colorado, said “it’s still way too early to draw any conclusions.

“Could the GOP and Democrats reverse roles this time?” he asked. “As we’ve seen throughout this election cycle, anything is possible.”