Malcolm Turnbull might be more popular than Bill Shorten, but he is still seen as leading a Coalition Government for the privileged. It's this fact that Labor must exploit, writes Peter Lewis.

Even his harshest critics would have to have a little sympathy for Bill Shorten right now as we watch his quest for leadership crushed by the weight of Malcolm Turnbull's charisma.

After more than two years of relentlessly plugging away with daily doorstops, zany zingers and even a few well-crafted policies, Shorten had history in his sights, poised to return Labor back to office after just one term of purgatory.

All that has changed with the rise of Turnbull, who has single-handedly eradicated Labor's two-year poll advantage and is now enjoying a Rudd-like personal honeymoon that sees him dominant as preferred prime minister.

Shorten's success in Opposition was built in, first, not being Abbott; and more significantly, building a political agenda based around looking to the future rather than the past.

Turnbull has trumped him on both counts, giving the impression he has turned the Coalition Government around 180-degrees, even as many of the policies remain the same.

So where does Shorten go?

This week's Essential poll provides a few clues - and the real news is it's not really about him at all.

Q. When deciding your vote in federal elections, which of the following are you mostly influenced by?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other Apr 2013 The individual candidate 21% 27% 18% 15% 29% 21% The candidate's political party 42% 40% 50% 60% 30% 47% The leader of the political party 20% 20% 24% 15% 15% 21% Don't know 18% 13% 7% 10% 26% 11%

The same people who say they prefer Turnbull as PM say it's actually not what influences their vote. The actual political party is twice as influential as the leader, no matter which political party you support.

This will be of some comfort to Labor, whose supporters are currently evenly split on whether they support Shorten or Turnbull for the top job.

So if voters are more likely to look to a political party than the individual, where do they see the differences when making that choice?

The following table shows how voters rate the two parties on a range of non-policy specific attributes.

Liberal Labor Difference Too close to the big corporate and financial interests 67% 37% +30 Has a good team of leaders 48% 33% +15 Have a vision for the future 54% 42% +12 Out of touch with ordinary people 62% 52% +10 Clear about what they stand for 46% 37% +9 Extreme 39% 30% +9 Will promise to do anything to win votes 68% 64% +4 Have good policies 43% 42% +1 Divided 56% 58% -2 Understands the problems facing Australia 46% 48% -2 Keeps its promises 25% 29% -4 Moderate 51% 56% -5 Trustworthy 29% 34% -5 Looks after the interests of working people 32% 55% -23

On the majority of indicators - both positive and negative - the differences between the two parties are negligible, single-figure deviations.

The major parties are seen as equally moderate, equally understanding, equally lacking in trustworthiness. Neither is seen as particularly extreme; about half of respondents think each party understands the problems Australia faces.

The Coalition are seen by 15 per cent more people as having a good team of leaders, while 12 per cent more see them having a vision of the future.

But the two outliers in the list favour Brand Labor - a third more people believe the Coalition are too close to corporate interests, while a quarter more believe Labor looks after the interests of working people.

In an era where class is seen as out of fashion, it is the representational frame that provides brand differentiation - and it is frame that works to the ALP advantage.

For a party looking to reload, it is these findings that may provide the template for debating policies from tax reform to penalty rates, free trade to climate change.

It is about shifting the policy debate from "what's the better idea" to "whose interest will the idea serve"; about breathing life into the idea that politics is more than a personality contest or even a policy forum, it is actually a way of managing power.

Of course, the Coalition will cry "class warfare" as it always does when taxpayer funding for private schools or superannuation tax concessions for the wealthy are raised. But these findings show the public sees the Coalition as the group which is doing the fighting.

Malcolm Turnbull has changed the game by moving the Coalition towards the centre, at least in look and feel, but in deed and intent he is still seen to lead a Government for the privileged.

Labor's best hope of recovery lies in finding a way to give life to this gap.

Peter Lewis is a director of Essential Media Communications.