This does not mean shale has been a failure. Optimists still hope it will reach a "positive inflexion point" in five years or so, the typical pattern for a fledgling industry. Some drillers have switched to tight oil projects that are much more more profitable because crude is closely linked to global prices. Yet the low-hanging fruit has been picked and the costs are ratcheting up. Three Forks McKenzie in Montana has a break-even price of $91.