Double Trouble, Again

Once again, it's not just that the primary Republican demographic is declining, that demographic is also voting increasingly for Democrats:



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Both Christians and non-Christians have been trending towards Democrats over the past 30 years. The trend among Christians can not be completely accounted for by the increasing number of non-white Christians, either, as slight (but not significant) trends can be seen among white Protestants and white Catholics as well:



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Basically, McCain barely won Christians in 2008, and non-Christians are solidly Democratic. Meanwhile, all the trends are against Republicans.

Changes in Identification

The Pew survey on religion has a wealth of data regarding changes in religious identification, and Gallup has long-term trends. Looking at people who join and leave certain religions over their lifetime, they found the fastest growing identification was Agnostic, followed by Other (New Age, Unitarian, Native American), Atheist, Nothing in Particular, Buddhist, and Muslim. Catholic, Jewish, and Protestant groups showed net losses.

Despite losing almost a quarter of their ranks to other denominations, Catholics are maintaining their proportion in the electorate because of immigration, mainly from Latin America. This is not, however, particularly soothing to Republicans. Overall, recent immigrants are about the same proportion Unaffiliated (Atheist, Agnostic, and Nothing in Particular) as the country as a whole, but about twice as likely to belong to a non-Christian religion (8-10% instead of 5%). They are also far more Catholic - almost 50% Catholic, and only about a quarter Protestant; currently the nationwide figures are about 50% Protestant and a quarter Catholic.

The Numbers

Looking at the bar chart in the introduction, white Mainline Protestants and Catholics (two diverse groups themselves, mind you) were essentially split 50-50, white Evangelical Protestants were strongly Republican, and non-white Christians were strongly Democratic. All together, Christians were split close to evenly, with a slight advantage for McCain. However, every category of non-Christian voted overwhelmingly for Obama.

Here's another way to look at the data from Pew, combined with other polls, with more divisions:



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There's really only three bright spots for Republicans: Mormons, White Evangelical Christians, and Orthodox Jews.

More Trends

We have data for a few more religious groups as well:



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Mormons may show a weak trend over the years towards Republicans. The data shown are for Rich County, Utah, which was 85% Mormon in 2004 (95% in 1989), according to LDS church records (which may overstate the number). Sadly for Republicans, Mormons make up only about 2% of the country. Even in Utah, projections are that less than half the population will be Mormon by 2030. Not only that, but the increasingly obvious antipathy of the Republican base towards Mormons in general and Mitt Romney in particular might throw some cold water on this trend. Especially in light of the appointment of popular Utah governor (and Mormon) Jon Huntsman as ambassador to China.

The Jewish vote has not only long been a solid Democratic demographic, but has been an increasingly Democratic demographic, despite quadrennial stories on Republicans making gains with Jewish voters. In 2008 Obama had the highest support of any Democratic candidate since the measurements began, at 83%, besting even the Gore/Lieberman ticket. (Note that because of small samples, this is not significantly stronger support than prior years.) This in a year of Barack the Scary Muslim emails targeting Jewish voters in particular, which were clearly ineffective. Once again, however, we see an example of We Are Not All of Us Alike, as Orthodox Jews showed strong support for McCain this year and Bush in 2004. (Note that poll results shown in the chart above among Jewish subcategories are based on results from a July poll that have been adjusted to fit the final exit poll results.) Estimates seen earlier for several Jewish immigrant communities in New York and Americans in Israel also showed strong support for McCain.

The Muslim community showed very strong support for Democrats this year, and among Arab Muslims at least, a dramatic increasingly Democratic trend. The poll of Muslim voters was completed by randomly selecting names from a list of Muslim voters, so there could be a bias to it depending on how the list was generated. However, the results are in agreement with the Muslim subsample in the poll of Arab Americans, and the Bangladeshi and Pakistani subsamples in the Asian American poll. Another demographic slice of the Muslim American community, African Americans, is also strongly Democratic. The recent development of Muslim American political behavior has been described as occurring in three stages: first, debating whether to participate in elections at all prior to 2000; second, whether to increase political power by voting as a block prior to 2004; and third, a less organized but perhaps more involved participation prior to the 2008 elections. It has been a dramatic ten years, from the seeming betrayal by George Bush, who had strong Muslim support in 2000, to the 2008 campaigns where the Muslim label was used as a rhetorical bludgeon (a ploy which may have backfired), to the election of a man who spent part of his childhood in Indonesia and has family ties to Islam.

White Evangelical Christians show a short-term trend that parallels Rich County, Utah, but there's really not enough data to make much of it. More on this group can be found here.

Finally, a brief mention of Baha'i and Zoroastrianism: very small samples in the poll of Iranian-Americans in California indicated Iranian-American members of these faiths have views aligned with the more conservative of Iranian-Americans, and would therefore likely have more or less split their presidential vote. Clearly, the uncertainty here is very large.

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This diary is the fifteenth in a series taking a close look at the 2008 electorate and exploring three themes: diversity within demographics, progressive feedback loops, and demographic change.

Tomorrow: Why Republicans Should Be Really, Really, Really Scared - Age

Cross posted at Open Left.

Diaries in this series (updated list):

Looking Back

Alternate History

Why Republicans Should Be Really Scared

African-Americans – We Are Not All of Us Alike

East and South Asian Americans – Diverse and Growing

West Asian Americans – Rapid Change

Native Americans – Increasing Participation

Islander Americans – In Need of More Representation

Native Alaskans – An Economic Factor?

Latino Electorate – Increasing Influence

European-Americans – Tribal Politics Persist

“Americans” – You Might Be Surprised

Appalachia – Surprisingly Democratic

Why Republicans Should Be Really, Really Scared

Why Republicans Should Be Really, Really, Really Scared

A Few More Tidbits

Related 2008 electorate diaries:

Maps: Blue America and the Changing Electorate

Maps: Obama and White Evangelicals



