Contributed by: MEC+

Total wind installations in India are expected to reach between 48GW to 54GW by 2022 – well short of the government’s 60GW target. This implies that new tenders issued will be between 2GW to 3GW per year after accounting for the pipeline already under construction. The sudden decline in the market has taken all stakeholders by surprise as this range is 60 per cent lower than the range expected over the last two years.

The sharp decline in expectations is driven by supply-side bottlenecks mainly attributed to sanctioning of grid and land (See our note in the GWR 2019). GWEC and MEC+ provide a scenario-based foundation for policy action by shedding light on the development of wind installations in India. The report presents three scenarios exploring different development pathways of the India wind industry.

Low Case = A business-as-usual scenario.

As-if Case = A scenario that only certain pockets of constraints are resolved.

High Case = A scenario whereby bottlenecks are opened in 2020 to drive installations during 2021-2022.

These three scenarios open up five realities for stakeholders to consider the thought of installation in India. The interplay of these realities will determine how market volume shapes up: