Mayor Rob Ford’s administration and senior city managers now believe significant layoffs of city staff are inevitable — an about-face from Ford’s campaign promise that there would be “no need for layoffs” to fix Toronto’s finances.

Last week, a grave-sounding city manager Joe Pennachetti told the Star his request for all departments and agencies to cut 10 per cent from their operating budgets “is very significant, and there will be staff reductions.”

He didn’t say if that meant actual pink slips, as opposed to attrition.

But sources within city staff and close to Ford confirmed this week that the directive to cut $380 million in spending, combined with what appears to be very low employee participation in the city’s buyout offer, make it virtually certain the mayor will ask council to pass a budget that pushes hundreds or thousands of gainfully employed city workers out the door.

That would represent a dramatic turnaround from last Sept. 27 — a month before Ford was elected — when he unveiled his “Saving Our City” plan on YouTube.

“Instead of a hiring freeze my plan is to reduce the city’s workforce through attrition,” Ford said, adding that about 6 per cent of city employees retire each year. “We’ll promote from within to fill many important roles with people who already have work for the city. No need for layoffs.”

The actual attrition rate is 2.7 per cent.

Toronto is in the early months of Ford’s effort to end the annual scramble to wipe out a deficit that is pegged for 2012 at between $443 million and $774 million.

Hopes to avoid significant layoffs were pinned on a buyout plan unveiled last month that offers unionized staff three weeks severance per year of service, and four weeks per year for managers, up to a total of six months.

About 17,000 of the city’s roughly 50,000 staff (firefighters and employees of arm’s length-agencies, including the TTC, are ineligible) have until Sept. 9 to apply for the package.

But there are strong indications the take-up rate is low.

Richard Majkot, executive director of the association representing city non-union managers and supervisors, estimates the number of his members who participate will be “under 1 per cent — a very, very insignificant number.”

About a dozen city workers sat in the front rows of the North York Council Chambers Thursday night to learn more about the city's buyout offer.

Employees leaving the 90-minute session were reluctant to speak with a reporter. One worker told the Star employees have been directed not to speak with the media.

“You don’t want to know what I have to say about it,” said one man leaving the session, when asked about the fairness of the buyout package. “I still work here.”

A 57-year-old employee, who has worked at the city for 37.5 years, said the deal was fair, but only for those employees who are near retirement or have worked at the city for 35 years.

“The city sounds eager to talk to anybody (about the buyout package),” he said. “So maybe the interest is not there.”

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Another employee believes the summer holidays may be responsible for what appears to be low interest in the buyout.

“There are two men in my department who are interested, but they're both on holiday,” she said.

The two city staff members who led the information session said ones held during business hours have been packed with interested workers, with an attendance of about 250 per day.

Six months’ salary is about half the industry standard for buyouts of long-term employees, and makes sense only for those about to hop to another job or retire, Majkot said. Also, nobody knows for sure whether their job will be targeted.

“Everything with this budget is up in the air.”

Majkot said he believes the layoff talk now might be part of a city “tactic” to convince workers to take the buyout package. But, if the city does try to force his members out the door, it will have a big fight on its hands, he warned.

“We will explore every option to protect our members’ rights,” Majkot said. “That includes complaints under the Employment Standards Act, civil action, class-action suit — anything that’s available to us.”

Representatives for CUPE locals 416 and 79 said they couldn’t comment on the buyout participation rate for their roughly 30,000 total members. Local 79 told inside workers it “does not think the voluntary separation program compensation is a great deal.”

Some layoff possibilities are already on the table. Three hundred temporary workers will not have their contracts renewed if council votes to expand private garbage pickup from the Humber River west to Yonge St.

Police Chief Bill Blair has warned that as many as 750 officers and 400 civilian staff would need to go to hit the mayor’s budget target. Fire Chief Bill Stewart has said a 10 per cent cut translates into 400 fewer firefighters.

With files from Megan Ogilvie