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This is the severe weather chance for Monday, June 22, 2015. Most of Lower Michigan is shaded in red, meaning a 30 percent chance of severe storms. The black hatching means there is a 10 percent chance of significant severe weather.

(Storm Prediction Center)

Michigan could have a significant severe weather outbreak Monday, June 22, 2015. This severe weather outbreak could include multiple tornadoes, and even a long-track tornado.

The graphic above shows where the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting severe weather. Most of Lower Michigan is currently shaded in red, meaning there is a 30 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point. The black hatching also over Lower Michigan means there is a 10 percent chance of significant severe weather within 25 miles of any given point.

Significant severe weather is defined as an EF2 tornado or stronger, 75 MPH wind gusts or stronger, or two inch hail or larger.

The timing would be the second half of Monday afternoon on the west side of Lower Michigan to the evening or even overnight on the east side of Lower Michigan.

I will keep you updated often over the next 36 hours. Right now, if you have outdoor plans for Monday morning, I think you will be OK. If you have plans that would take you far from safe shelter for Monday afternoon and evening, I would start rethinking those plans. This means boating, camping or hiking.

I want to remind you this does not mean severe weather is a certainty. It really just means that there is a much higher chance of severe weather compared to a normal storm situation. It also means if the storms develop, they could be on the higher end of severity.

Here is the complete discussion from the Storm Prediction Center. Some of it is quite technical. Skim past that and you will get meaningful sentences.

In my 26 years as a meteorologist, I've found these situations to be "all-or-nothing." By Tuesday morning Michigan will have had a significant severe weather outbreak or nothing at all. That's the way it goes. To me, this situation looks strong, but right now also looks a little disjointed. I see the strongest dynamics coming in very late in the evening or almost overnight. The dynamics may come a little after the storms, which could help us escape significant severe weather.

So watch for updates.

If you have any weather questions, please ask below. I'll check in often.

MLive Chief Meteorologist Mark Torregrossa has been forecasting Michigan weather for more than 25 years. He's been chief meteorologist at three television news stations in Michigan, and he's an avid gardener and hunter. Email him at mtorregr@mlive.com and find him on Facebook at facebook.com/mark.torregrossa and Twitter @weathermanmark