Young voters could stop Tommy Robinson from becoming an MEP — but only if they turn out to vote, according to advocacy group Hope Not Hate (HNH), which says that apathy could allow the former English Defence League leader to be elected to the European Parliament.



In the North West region, the ninth MEP slot can be elected with as little as 8% of the vote — which is why HNH says that turnout will be crucial in determining the result of the election and whether Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, is ultimately successful.

An online survey of 1,843 adults carried out by HNH showed 9% of voters overall in the North West have a "favourable" or "very favourable" view of Robinson, while 47% feel "unfavourable" or "very unfavourable" towards him.



If turnout is low, this could be just enough to see him scrape through - and young voters are the most likely to stay at home.



Separate polling by HNH and the National Education Union, shared with BuzzFeed News, showed a small but — given the system — potentially significant shift in view on Robinson among young (18-24) voters. It found 7% looked on him favourably — with just 3% taking a "very favourable" view, and 45% finding him "unfavourable" or "very unfavourable."

HNH's chief executive, Nick Lowles, told BuzzFeed News that "tiny swings in each region could make the difference in almost three-quarters of the Euro seats".

“With the Euro elections fast approaching and the voter-registration deadline in just a few days’ time, it’s urgent that the main political parties engage with young people, who could make the difference between electing extremists and not," he added.



However, the polling shows a lack of engagement among young voters: 42% are undecided on what they think of Robinson.

Robinson is standing as an independent candidate in the North West of England but is an adviser to Gerard Batten's UKIP. Among young voters polled by HNH, UKIP had the least support of all parties, with just 2% of those surveyed saying they intended to cast their vote for the party, compared with 10% for the Conservatives, 8% for the Brexit Party, and 43% for Labour.



Robinson's campaign has got off to a difficult start, after several incidents in or around Greater Manchester.



He was first warned by the police that he could not give out free burgers at his barbecue campaign launch in Wythenshawe; a video of a woman in Salford telling him he was "spouting shite" went viral on Twitter; the Man City goalkeeper Ederson said he didn't support him "or his ideas" after Robinson stopped him for a photo; and he had milkshakes poured over him on two consecutive days in Bury and Warrington.