Hero Pick/Ban and Win Rate - The Raw Data

Cain's Priority in the Draft

Head-to-Head: Who Can Deck Deckard?

Duo-Queue: Who Do You Pair Up With Cain?

The Final Word

Hello again, everyone! Today, I'd like to talk about Deckard Cain. The Last Horadrim was released on April 24, 2018, and finally saw his first bout of pro use in the Mid-Season Brawl. I'd like to take a look at the new hero's standing so far in professional play, including some head-to-head matchups and heroes that have paired well with them. Keep in mind that, as is always true of HGC games, some of this data will be skewed due to the differences in skill between teams. No hero has yet managed to completely overcome a skill deficit between teams or regions. I will try to take this into account in my writings.Here are Deckard Cain's hero stats at a glance:Deckard started out somewhat less emphasized in the Mid-Season Brawl, but surged in later games to become the third most popular healer at Dreamhack with a final popularity rate of 31%, behind Malfurion (98%) and Stukov (33%). Europe showed him the most love with a 32% popularity rate, totaling 15 picks and 2 bans. Korea gave him almost no real emphasis with only 1 pick and 1 ban. China similarly didn't give him any real attention, accounting for only 2 of his bans and none of his picks during the entire event. It seems that the eastern regions preferred to pick more aggressive healers, such as Stukov or Kharazim, whenever they were otherwise unable to pick up Malfurion.Cain's win rate of 44% looks somewhat poor from an outward glance, but context reveals that a lot of his "performance issues" can be traced to the regions and teams that used him. North America went 0-3 on the hero, and the minor regions went 1-5, which accounts for 8 of his 14 total losses. Furthermore, only Dignitas (at 4-1) and Tempo Storm (at 0-1) have played him among the top four teams at this year's Mid-Season Brawl, so we don't really have a good gauge of his strength in the hands of the higher ranked teams. However, if we expand that further to look at the top eight teams, his overall record sits at 10-9, which is a bit more respectable.Here's a look at where Deckard Cain is prioritized in the draft:Malfurion was highly prioritized in the early stages of the draft, with 99% of his picks and bans occurring before the second ban phase. Deckard Cain, on the other hand, was instead emphasized later in the draft, with 71% of of his picks and bans occurring during or after the second ban phase. All of Deckard's 6 bans came in the second phase. The low win rate associated with Cain's bans might seem significant, but is largely noise. 2 of Deckard's bans are from Chinese teams facing off against NA teams (games which they lost) and 2 other bans are from teams that were facing off against Gen.G (and were also losses). As such, it's a leap to presume that banning Deckard is likely to cause any significant harm towards your chances of winning.Typically, when a hero is prioritized later in the draft, this indicates that the hero is viewed as a more niche choice than others. But this is harder to iron out in the category of healers because of the high priority and selection dominance of Malfurion. With Malfurion involved in nearly every game as a pick or ban and almost always as an initial pick, every other healer saw more emphasis in the later stages of the draft. This is, of course, due to Malfurion's extreme strength in the role, providing both sustained and burst healing as well as a variety of utility. However, Deckard's steadily increased emphasis as the tournament went on seems to show that he's emerging as a solid secondary choice in the healer role.Here's a table of some of the most popular heroes to be selected against Deckard Cain.This set of data is unfortunately a bit harder to draw true value from. Naturally, Cain faced off the most against Malfurion, since the two both fulfill the same role and most teams were quick to snap up Malfurion if he was available. Neither should the inclusion of heroes like Blaze and Garrosh be any surprise, as their popularity ratings were similarly high in the off-lane and tank positions respectively. But these three heroes also throw off the reliability of other heroes on the list, too. For example, both Fenix and Hanzo saw a great deal of play alongside at least one of those three heroes (often more than one), which skews their results against Deckard and makes it hard to be certain how much of this was Deckard being "countered" by this hero....and how much was just sheer good fortune for being on the same side as the Malfurion player.So, rather than pick apart the stats themselves and possibly give you inaccurate information, I will simply focus on what the tournament play itself showed us. In general, Deckard's healing output simply wasn't a match for Malfurion's, allowing teams with an emphasis on ranged poke to win the war of attrition against Cain. In general, his vulnerability to dive seems to have been somewhat exaggerated, as it wasn't usually dive that caused him or his team problems. Instead, continual harassment made it hard for him to keep his team topped off against a superior sustained healer, which led to opportunities that the other team could exploit. To that end, if you're looking to beat Cain in your own games, consider drafting a team which can provide a great deal of ranged poke, especially if you can deal that poke towards multiple targets. Fenix and Hanzo are obvious choices, of course, but mages such as Li-Ming would also fulfill this role well.Here's a table of some of the most popular heroes to be selected alongside Deckard Cain.As with the previous chart, it is important for me to provide context for these stats. Some heroes have lower win rates due to poor performance, such as Muradin, whose 38% WR in the tournament is the most likely culprit of his problems on this chart. Similarly, Chromie's 28% WR and Falstad's 43% WR would explain their lower showings on this chart, as they were just less successful in general. However, other interactions on this chart are harder to explain in this manner. For example, Johanna's win rate in the tournament was 57%, and she is the only other tank besides Garrosh to secure 24 wins in this tournament....yet she only achieved a 33% win rate when played alongside Cain.Some general conclusions can still be drawn, however. Deckard was pitched as a healer that works well in setting up plays for his team, and these stats do seem to reflect that viewpoint. A rooted target is an easy pick for reset-oriented heroes like Genji and Li-Ming, who can use that pick to build momentum in their team's favor. They can also provide a nice set up for stun chains if you're not confident in your ability to finish the target while rooted, and there are plenty of tanks and bruisers (such as Blaze, Garrosh, Dehaka, etc) that can further enable that style of play.Deckard Cain started out the Mid-Season Brawl as a hero with very little focus, but quickly emerged as one of the top healers in the tournament. It begs the question of how much more emphasis he might have seen if there wasn't a single healer at the top of the ladder right now. Hopefully, we will see some future changes to Malfurion soon that will decrease his control of the healer role so that other healers like Cain can continue to change up the way the HGC is played! The HGC picks up again this Friday, so be sure to watch!Looking for more of my work? I just finished a large piece about Valeera. That article is located here. Feel free to let me know your thoughts to this article in the comments section below, or on Twitter at my handle @CriticKitten . I look forward to your replies!