Have the Tories hit the jackpot? Judging by the media coverage of the past five days they have. They have managed to combine their warnings of economic chaos after 8 May – the threat of excessive borrowing, leftwing influence and instability – with the threat posed by Scottish nationalism. By uniting Nicola Sturgeon and Ed Miliband in the nation’s mind, the Tories have injected a badly needed new ingredient into their warnings about Miliband. Previously, those warnings were not gaining sufficient traction because Miliband had been outperforming expectations.



It is a brilliant strategy, and bears the hallmark of George Osborne, a keen reader of Scottish politics. And it has left Labour fighting hard to get a hearing for its warnings about the NHS.

George Osborne and David Cameron. The Tories’ new strategy bears the chancellor’s hallmarks. Photograph: Getty

Labour appears to be losing the air war and there is little sign the party knows how to respond. Miliband mounted a spirited defence of the union and an assault on the low politics of the Conservatives on BBC Breakfast on Tuesday, but news cycles are coming and going, and each time Labour is losing.

Labour is questioning Cameron’s motive in acting as a cheerleader for the SNP. The Tories are warning about the threat posed by the SNP. But it is the Tories who have the clearer message, and the SNP, interested only in crushing victory in Scotland, is indifferent if it aids the Tory message south of the border.



No matter that Sir John Major’s hackneyed warnings about the threat posed by the SNP is recycled from an article in March in the Telegraph. No matter that the “ransom note” left by the SNP represents no threat to Labour unless the Conservatives are co-signatories (the 40 or so SNP MPs coming to Westminster have zero influence unless the Tories vote alongside them). No matter that the SNP’s policies, as revealed on Monday, are copies of Labour’s, so with the sole exception of Trident they hardly drag the already leftwing Miliband any further left.



Broadcasters are covering the election as if there is no negative consequence to voting Conservative

Words such as chaos, mayhem and blackmail cut through. Sturgeon is clearly not the most dangerous woman in Britain – but the headline works. The broadcasters follow this agenda in part because it is their proper duty to report whatever the Conservatives are saying. But they are also constantly dragged by the centrifugal force that is the rightwing press. The speculation seems to have drifted to what happens on 8 May, rather than properly interrogating the campaign beforehand. Policy and what politicians are saying today are relegated to “and in other news”.



The Conservative party would also not be playing the SNP card if it did not think it was working. The party has the best intelligence system in the country in the form of polling, focus groups and feedback from the doorstep. The Tories knew, for instance, Labour’s non-dom story was killing them so changed the subject. Within 24 hours the media was discussing Michael Fallon’s attack on Miliband and the “stabbing” of his brother and political rival, David Miliband. They changed the subject.

One party strategist intimately involved in the election said: “The broadcasters are now covering the election as if there is no negative consequence to voting Conservative. Labour really do have to go on the offensive and stop defending themselves about the SNP. A classic error. They are fighting an election on the opposition turf.”



The same point is made more obliquely by David Axelrod, the American Labour campaign adviser, in his book Believer. “Why should a voter choose candidate A over candidate B? The winning campaign is generally the one that dictates the terms of that choice by defining what the race is about.”

It is possible the media air war flies over the attention span of the electorate and other factors decide the outcome of this election. Doorstep campaigns and broadcasting studios are worlds apart. But in an election this tight, Labour should be alarmed.