This article is more than 2 years old

This article is more than 2 years old

The government should provide students with an individualised assessment of their likelihood of dropping out of university, the Grattan Institute has said.

In a report to be released on Monday the Grattan Institute finds that the probability of dropping out is relatively easy to predict, with characteristics including studying part-time and being a mature-age student strong indicators of risk.

The report by higher education program director Andrew Norton and fellow Ittima Cherastidtham finds that one in five students are more likely to drop out than complete university.

Uni should be free. It's our best bet against inequality | Sarah Hanson-Young Read more

It estimates that about 50,000 students who start in 2018 will not finish their degrees based on the fact one-quarter of students who started university in 2008 dropped out within eight years.

The Grattan Institute found that part-time study was the strongest indicator of risk, with students studying three or four subjects in their first year – rather than a full load of eight – only a 50/50 chance of completing university.

• Sign up to receive the top stories from Guardian Australia every morning

The Grattan Institute developed a model to use these and other factors (field of study, admission marks, age, sex, disability, nationality, indigeneity, postcode during year 12 study, failed courses and study in person or online) to predict an individual’s chance of completing university.

The report recommended the government’s student website, Quality Indicators for Teaching and Learning, should include “personalised information about the risk of not completing a degree” and how to reduce that risk.

For example, the Grattan model calculated that a non-Indigenous male who moved from a remote area in Western Australia to a metro area, studied off-campus and took four subjects a year has a 72% chance of dropping out within eight years.

But taking a full load of subjects and studying on-campus more than doubles that student’s chances of completing, slashing the risk of failure to 32%.

“With better advice, some prospective part-time students may opt to study full-time,” the authors said. “Some prospective university students would take a vocational education course instead. Some may not study at all, but look for a job instead.”

The federal government is also concerned about attrition rates and wants to introduce an element of performance funding so universities are incentivised to maximise outcomes as well as enrolments.

In February the education minister, Simon Birmingham, told the Universities Australia conference that the attrition rate reached almost 15% in 2015, up from the lowest point of 12% in 2009.

Birmingham has asked the higher education standards panel to look at how providers could support student success and course completion.

The Grattan report argues that dropping out “is not always a bad outcome” because students report receiving benefits despite not finishing.

“Yet for a significant minority, an incomplete degree leaves them with debt and regret,” it said.

According to a survey of 950 students who did not complete university, nearly 40% would not begin their degree again knowing what they did now, and about a third of them felt they had received no benefits from their course.

“These students do not get value for time and money. Australia should do more to manage the risks and costs of enrolment.”

Number of Australians with tertiary education qualifications to plunge Read more

The Grattan report suggests universities should warn part-time students more clearly about what they need to do to finish within the maximum time allowed, and check students have a credible plan to graduate.

It said universities should actively warn students of the census date, before which they could drop out without incurring fees, by using text messages rather than emails.

Norton and Cherastidtham argued that students who were disengaged – failing to attend classes and hand in assessments – should be disenrolled before the second semester rather than at the end of the first year.

If these efforts failed, the government could make students opt back in to study at census date rather than opt out.

The Universities Australia’s deputy chief executive, Catriona Jackson, said while universities continued to make significant efforts to deal with attrition, a student leaving a course wasn’t inherently a bad thing.

“Students must be supported to make good choices but sometimes the best choice is to leave,” she said. “The factors that cause non-completion are complex and often beyond the control of students and their universities – including everything from health problems and financial difficulties to the challenges of juggling work, study and family life.

“The key is good information for students. Universities Australia supports any efforts that would help students to make the best decision they can.”