Yahoo just scored a definite maybe.

According to a filing on Tuesday, the troubled Internet company was informed by the Securities and Exchange Commission that the government agency will not rule on whether Yahoo can spin off its Alibaba shares in a tax-free manner.

Should Yahoo decide to stay the course with its most prized asset, the IRS could tax the new entity at a later date. The difference between no tax (Yahoo's preference) on the $23.4 billion stake and a 40 percent capital gains tax is more than $9 billion.



Read MoreYahoo tanks on IRS `ruling'

Investors are now left to discount the risk.

"Basically, all the government did is say we're not going to tell you ahead of time—we're not going to give you a safe haven," said Laura Martin, an analyst at Needham & Co. "The risk-reward just got worse."



Martin has a "buy" rating on the stock and a $55 price target, 78 percent above Tuesday's closing price of $30.90.