Predictions Favor Warren Over Sanders As The Progressive Democratic Candidate

Betting markets see Warren as Biden’s top challenger for the Democratic Nomination

Less than two years from the 2020 US presidential election, one of the most anticipated of the last decades, the Democratic presidential race began with the largest and most diverse pool of candidates in United States history. The field has been reduced from 27 to 18, and will continue to shrink as the race heats up.

So far, Democrats have held four national televised debates in which the numbers of participants have been defined according to the polls results. 9 candidates have met the requirements in order to qualify for the November debate at the moment, according to Politico’s Democratic primary poll tracker. There will be no room for many more, given the new, stricter requirements the Democratic National Committee has recently unveiled.

However, the new entries or exits of the ‘fortunate’ ones that may be part of the coming debates are of little importance if one takes a look at the main polls’ data. Currently, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders add up to more than 70% of the Democratic primary vote intention, which means that the chance for one of those three to be Trump’s rival in 2020 is really high.

We are going to use the Morning Consult’s poll as the focus of our Democratic primary data. This research company works with The New York Times, Bloomberg or Politico and surveys more than 5,000 registered voters across the country every day. Then it publishes one week’s worth of responses from registered voters who intend to vote in the Democratic primary. The latest survey data on the page, updated on October 28, shows Biden as the clear frontrunner, with a double digit advantage over his main opponents. As you can see in the historical charts that are also provided on the web, this lead has been a constant since the beginning of the year, having been above 30% most of the time.

Latest 2020 Democratic primary poll provided by Morning Consult.

Democratic Debates: Warren vs Sanders

Biden is the favorite candidate now — there’s no doubt Democratic voters are seeing him as the ‘most electable’ person so far. Not only Morning Consult, but most of the relevant polls give him a clear lead. So the key question now is: who will enter the final battle for the party’s nomination in 2020 with him? The last Morning Consult survey sets a tie between Sanders and Warren, with 20% of the votes each one. The key point in the November and December debates will be the two most progressive candidates having no choice but to confront opinions, something both have largely avoided during the campaign trail. Get ready for an end of the year that will be absolutely decisive for the fate of the 2020 Democratic Nomination.

Forecasts of what might happen are totally divided, and politics bettors are placing their predictions on this exciting events. The Guesser market ‘Will Elizabeth Warren be polling over Bernie Sanders by the end of November according to Morning Consult?’ lets users predict which candidate will do better in the poll after next month’s crucial debate, scheduled for Nov 20th.