MANILA, Philippines — Most parts of Luzon are expected to experience dry spell to drought conditions in the coming months due to El Niño, according to the state weather bureau.

There is a 55 to 60 percent chance that El Niño will develop in the last quarter of the year, which will increase to 65 to 70 percent between December and February next year, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said yesterday.

El Niño refers to above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and is associated with below normal rainfall.

Dry spell pertains to two consecutive months of way below normal rainfall while drought refers to five months of below normal rainfall.

Ana Liza Solis, officer in charge of PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction section, said they are looking at a “weak” El Niño.

Most parts of Luzon will experience below normal rainfall while Visayas and Mindanao will receive near normal rainfall this month.

Next month, most parts of Northern Luzon and Western Visayas and parts of Mindanao will have below normal rainfall. The rest of the country will experience near normal rainfall.

Below normal rainfall will be experienced in most parts of Luzon and generally near normal over the Visayas and Mindanao by December.

The country experienced one of the most severe El Niño from late 2015 to June 2016.