Disaster looms and a Hull of a finish awaits

Everyone seems to think the Champions-elect, Cardiff City (Barnsley manager David Flitcroft’s words not mine) are edging closer to promotion. Even the usually negative, crisis stirring journalists are quiet. A loss at Peterborough and two stalemates against Watford and Barnsley has been a disappointing return from these three games. Only one win in four games now and that against a struggling Blackburn Rovers who are dropping like a stone into the depths of a relegation maelstrom.

Why then is there so much apparent confidence around the media prophets and the rest of the Championship managers? You expect Malky Mackay and the players to sound confident but is this all misplaced? The Bluebirds are 15th in the current form table that manager Mackay puts so much faith in. Nottingham Forest and Bolton Wanderers who are at the CCS for two of our final three home games are sitting first and second in the form table. Hull and Charlton are also above us and Burnley are level on points with the Bluebirds over the last eight games,in 16th place.

Nobody wants to go to Hull City on the last day of the season needing a win or even a point to secure the Championship title or even more scary, to win promotion. That means we need seven points from five games. Two wins and a tie. Three wins and a tie for 10 points will secure the title. Of course for every point that either Watford or Hull drop the total points target for Cardiff reduces.

A quick look at the Hull City schedule shows this:

A. Ipswich A. Wolves H. Bristol City A. Barnsley H. Cardiff

Excluding the Cardiff game only the Ipswich game looks daunting. The Tractorboys have lost only one of the last eight games and are looking to finish out the season on a high under Mick McCarthy who will demand no less. But the meat in the sandwich between the Ipswich and Cardiff games are all very winnable. Wolves have huge injury problems and while they will surely battle under Dean Saunders command, do they have the necessary talent fit and available to pull of a win? Perhaps not.

The cross channel Robins are far from bobbing along and look like finishing the season in a downward spiral. They look doomed to relegation. Barnsley we have seen recently at first hand and while they have managed good results against Palace and Cardiff on the road recently, they will have to open up against Hull on their own patch. The Tykes will need all three points in a dogfight to stay up.

It is not a stretch to believe Hull will take at least nine or ten points from four games before entertaining the Champions-elect. Of course by then it could very well be Hull City who are Champions-elect. Under this scenario Hull would have 83 points. Should they draw one of those four games instead of winning they would have 81 points. Should they draw at Ipswich and still draw one of the other three, they would have 82 points. If they won three and tied one it would total 84 points.

As for Watford it is a similar story:

A. Peterboro A. Millwall H. Blackburn A. Leicester H. Leeds

They have what looks like a very tough game at Leicester. Even though the Midlands side are 23rd in the form table with no wins in eight games and on a desperately bad run, you have to believe they will be fighting for their pride and purpose and any win before this fixture comes around could have reignited their play-off hopes. It would be acceptable to say this Leicester game for Watford should be a given three points but I don’t think it will be. It is also possible that the Hornets next game at Peterborough will prove just as tough. The Posh are fifth in the form table and unbeaten in eight. Even so, somehow I can’t see both games being losing efforts for Watford who are such a good road team. Three points from one win or two points from two draws might be the outcome. One of their other three games is at Millwall who will probably be out of the FA Cup by then and feeling the disappointment that goes with such a semi-final loss. I give Watford these three points. At their Vicarage Road home Blackburn and Leeds seem to offer Watford another six points for sure. A total of nine then from these three games (Millwall -Blackburn-Leeds) and two or three points from the previous two games (Peterboro-Leicester). That totals 82 or 83 points. I wouldn’t rule out Watford winning all five for 15 points and 86 in total but let’s hope not, at least not for this calculation.

If we err on the side of the Bluebirds it looks like both Hull and Watford should amass 82/83 points by the time we play the Tigers. That would leave Cardiff needing 86 points for the title and 84 points for promotion, assuming we would lose to Hull City in the last game of the season. Two wins should be achievable for a team that has sat for so long at the top of the Championship heap. If Hull get 10 points for 84 total points we will need 87 points. Monotonous consistency and winning ugly is about to be put to the final test.

Can you see Cardiff losing at home to Forest and Bolton? You want to say no but both are the form teams of the division. It’s certainly very possible. A trip to Burnley is never easy and wont be despite the friendship between Sean Dyche and Malky Mackay. The City manager offered Dyche the assistant manager’s position at Cardiff when he moved down the M4 from Hertfordshire to South Wales. Dyche chose to go his own way and stepped into management following in Mackay’s footsteps at Watford before re-emerging at Burnley. Another game we could easily come home empty-handed from.

That leaves Charlton at home as the most crucial game of all. This should be the proverbial home banker. Three points is a must from this fixture against a middle of the table, nothing to play for team. Can we give City these three points and ignore the five goals the Valiants smashed past us at death Valley way back in November. That away fixture proved to be a turning point in the season for Mackay’s men and marked the only time this year the Bluebirds have lost two games in a row. The other game was at Bolton, losing by 2-1 in Dougie Freedman’s first game for the Trotters. Let’s hope this reverse fixture doesn’t prove to be another turning point, only this time in the opposite direction. Charlton are fourth in the away league table, no pushover on the road. They have lost only six times, one loss less than the Bluebirds. Three points against Charlton is not a given, it looks like a draw all over.

A draw against Forest and Charlton would not be beyond belief and maybe all we can expect from Burnley is a draw. That would be three points from three games with Bolton to play at home before the Hull City trip. Imagine the nerves around the Cardiff City Stadium and on the field if we need to win against Bolton to avoid a last day nightmare scenario? The truth is we cannot afford to draw games anymore. We have to go for wins. Two wins and a draw from the four games before we play Hull should do it. For Hull to top us they will need to have taken all 12 points from their four games. 10 points would not be enough because even if they win on the last day against the Bluebirds and level the points tally at 87 we should have maintained a better goal differential. Needing two or three wins what chance now that Mackay will take the restraints off and go for it?

Not much I’m sure, in fact I’m 100% sure he wont unless forced to. Mackay will follow his scientific approach and unless we go behind late in games there will be no gambling only a monotonous, consistent, ugly, possession oriented, field position, dead ball hoping, grind. And if we are promoted, no one will care. If we play safe, draw too many and lose out on the title, God forbid we lose the promotion prize itself, there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth.