Donald Trump plans heavy campaign schedule – with his presidency at stake

David Jackson | USA TODAY

WASHINGTON – Claiming credit for this week's election results, President Donald Trump is serving notice that he will be actively involved in this fall's congressional races – and there's good reason for that.

His presidency is likely at stake.

If Democrats win a majority of U.S. House seats in November, Trump can say goodbye to his hopes for a new tax cut and a border wall; if they win the Senate, Trump will find it difficult to win confirmation for conservative nominees to any number of posts, including the Supreme Court.

Above all, a Democratic House or Senate, or both, would be able to wield a potent weapon against the Trump White House: the power of investigation, maybe even impeachment.

"They will subpoena anybody who has been within 100 feet of Donald Trump," said Republican strategist Scott Jennings, a former White House political adviser to President George W. Bush. "And it will grind this administration to a halt."

Small wonder that Trump, who prefers Republican rallies to White House policy meetings anyway, plans to be busy on the campaign trail, even as his potential influence is debated.

"As long as I campaign and/or support Senate and House candidates (within reason), they will win!" Trump tweeted Wednesday. "I LOVE the people, & they certainly seem to like the job I’m doing."

Trump and allies declared victory in an Ohio special election, even though Republican state Sen. Troy Balderson held less than a 1-percentage-point-lead over 31-year-old Democratic county recorder Danny O'Connor. There may be a recount in a congressional district that Republicans have controlled for more than three decades and that Trump himself won by more than 11 points two years ago.

Undeterred, Trump tweeted that Balderson was down in early voting but rallied with a Trump appearance in Ohio over the weekend. "After my speech on Saturday night, there was a big turn for the better," he tweeted.

Republican pollster Frank Luntz, however, tweeted that the GOP can choose to celebrate the win in Ohio, but "a 1-point victory in that district is nothing to commend ... The GOP have to do something really significant in September if they want to keep the House in November."

More: Key takeaways from Ohio special election and primaries in four other states

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In another tweet Wednesday, Trump said Republicans have won eight of nine House special elections since he won the presidency, "yet if you listen to the Fake News Media you would think we are being clobbered. Why can’t they play it straight, so unfair to the Republican Party and in particular, your favorite President!"

Those special elections have taken place in largely Republican districts, including one in Pennsylvania won by Democrat Conor Lamb. Trump also omitted last year's special Senate election in Republican-friendly Alabama, won by Democrat Doug Jones over Roy Moore.

The Republicans have now won 8 out of 9 House Seats, yet if you listen to the Fake News Media you would think we are being clobbered. Why can’t they play it straight, so unfair to the Republican Party and in particular, your favorite President! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 8, 2018

As long as I campaign and/or support Senate and House candidates (within reason), they will win! I LOVE the people, & they certainly seem to like the job I’m doing. If I find the time, in between China, Iran, the Economy and much more, which I must, we will have a giant Red Wave! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 8, 2018

Presidents have problems when members of the other party run Congress – and not just because of investigations.

"Beyond investigations and new-found subpoena power, which seem inevitable, Democrats will set the agenda," said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "In the Senate, Trump would have trouble getting judges, ambassadors and senior Cabinet officials confirmed."

Republican consultant Liz Mair offered a stark example of what a Democratic Congress could do to Trump: "Making his tax returns publicly available."

Democrats, meanwhile, plan to use Trump against Republican candidates in certain races this fall. They point to Trump's low approval ratings and opposition to his policies ranging from immigration to relations with other countries.

Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson said the special elections since Trump took office reveal "a suburban revolt" against Republican rule.

"Last night, we saw voters who had backed (John) McCain, (Mitt) Romney and Trump by about 10 points but now are fleeing Trump's Republican candidates because they don't want more yes men in Congress," he said.

Then there's the special counsel investigation into Russian efforts to influence the 2016 presidential race in favor of Trump over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Some Democrats have said Robert Mueller's investigation could form the basis for an impeachment inquiry should they take the House.

Trump himself has raised the issue, saying Democrats want the majority so they can impeach him.

In an appearance in Michigan in April, Trump said: “We have to keep the House because if we listen to (Democratic congresswoman) Maxine Waters, she’s going around saying, ‘We will impeach him.' "

Trump has said he plans to work hard this fall, focusing on the closest congressional races ahead of Election Day on Nov. 6.

"I will go six or seven days a week when we’re 60 days out," Trump told Sean Hannity on his radio show last month. "And I will be campaigning for all of these great people that do have a difficult race, and we think we’re going to bring them over the line.”

The president also plans to help raise money for Republican candidates. While spending the week at his golf resort in New Jersey, Trump plans to have dinner Wednesday with members of a committee that distributes campaign money to Republican congressional candidates.

The committee's name: "Protect The House."

From the White House to party headquarters, Republicans say they are more worried about keeping their majority in the House.

The GOP has a 236-193 advantage in House seats, with six vacancies. The Democrats need a gain of 23 seats to take charge, and many election forecasters give them a good chance.

The Republicans have a much smaller advantage in the Senate – they have 51 members, while the Democratic caucus numbers 49 – but they may have a better chance of defending it.

That's because only 35 Senate seats are up for election, and 26 are held by Democrats. Some of those Democrats face tough re-election battles in states that Trump carried in 2016 and where the president plans to spend a lot of time campaigning, including Florida, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana, Indiana and West Virginia.

During his tweet storm forecasting the election, Trump said: "If I find the time, in between China, Iran, the Economy and much more, which I must, we will have a giant Red Wave!"

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