Noticeable things to look at this week versus the past 4 weeks, the starting pitching has struggled to keep the lineups in check. The Reds managed to face two postseason teams from last season and it was the starting rotation that managed to struggle this week, the bullpen excelled in this weeks pitching. The Reds went to Pittsburgh to start out the week, played 4 games and managed to win 3 to gain 2 games in the week against the Pirates and attempt to climb back to the top of the standings. The Reds following their 4 game series was travel down south to Atlanta, where the Braves managed to start off early and managed to keep the lead and sweep the Reds

STARTING PITCHING

SERIES 7 NUMBERS-PITTSBURGH PIRATES

28.2 IP/21 H/8 R/11 BB/17 SO/3 HR

BAA .196/ERA 2.51/WHIP 1.12

GRADE: 86.56% (B)

RATES: 17.80% H/6.78% R/9.32% BB/14.41% SO/2.54% HR

PER 9: 6.59 H/2.51 R/3.45 BB/5.34 SO/0.94 HR

SERIES 8 NUMBERS-ATLANTA BRAVES

21 IP/20 H/9 R/3 BB/19 SO/4 HR

BAA .241/ERA 3.86/WHIP 1.10

GRADE: 81.66% (B)

RATES: 24.10% H/10.84% R/3.61% BB/22.89% SO/4.82% HR

PER 9: 8.57 H/3.86 R/1.29 BB/8.14 SO/1.71 HR

BULLPEN NUMBERS

SERIES 7 NUMBERS-PITTSBURGH PIRATES

7 IP/7 H/2 R/3 BB/6 SO/HR

BAA .250/ERA 2.57/WHIP 1.43

GRADE: 85.19% (B)

RATES: 22.58% H/6.45%/ R/9.68% BB/19.35% SO/3.23% HR

PER 9: 9.00 H/2.57 R/3.86 BB/7.71 SO/1.29 HR

SERIES 8 NUMBERS-ATLANTA BRAVES

4.2 IP/5 H/R/2 BB/4 SO

BAA .263/ERA 1.93/WHIP 1.50

GRADE: 87.30% (B)

RATES: 23.81% H/4.76% R/9.52% BB/19.05% SO

PER 9: 9.64 H/1.93 R/3.86 BB/7.71 SO

Starting Pitcher Breakdowns for Week 4

Mike Leake is good, but his ball didn’t go low enough. Mike unfortunately had a rough week, which is human of him to do. Leake faced the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 1st game and the Atlanta Braves in the 2nd game of their series. Leake will only pitch once next week against the Milwaukee Brewers.

PITTSBURGH GAME

7 IP/8 H/4 R/BB/2 SO/HR

BAA .276/ERA 5.14/WHIP 1.29

GRADE: 76.19% (C)

RATES: 27.59% H/13.79% R/3.45% BB/6.90% SO/3.45% HR

PER 9: 10.29 H/5.14 R/1.29 BB/2.57 SO/1.29 HR

ATLANTA GAME

7 IP/8 H/4 R/4 SO/3 HR

BAA .276/ERA 5.14/WHIP 1.14

GRADE: 76.72% (C)

RATES: 28.57% H/14.29% R/14.29% SO/10.71% HR

PER 9: 10.29 H/5.14 R/5.14 SO/3.86 HR

CURRENT QUARTILE RANGE

QUARTILE 1-3 RANGE

6.2 -7 IP 5 -8 H 3 -4 R 1 BB 3 -4 SO 0-2 HR .200-.276 BAA 4.05-5.14 ERA 0.90-1.20 WHIP

Cueeeto, Cueeeto, Cueeeto, Cueeeto. Remember that? Clearly Cueto did. Don’t worry, he managed to quiet the Pirates fans that did that to him in the wildcard game.

Cueeeeeeeeeeeto!

Nonetheless, it didn’t shake him and there was absolutely no one there to rattle him. Cueto managed to pitch another complete game against those Pirates, where there were hockey fans at PNC Park in October than on Earth Day 2014. Where all of those “fans”?

Cueeeeeeeeeeto?

PITTSBURGH GAME

9 IP/3 H/R/3 BB/4 SO/HR

BAA .100/ERA 1.00/WHIP 0.67

GRADE: 93.83% (A)

RATES: 9.09% H/3.03% R/9.09% BB/12.12% SO/3.03% HR

PER 9: 3.00 H/1.00 R/3.00 BB/4.00 SO/1.00 HR

ATLANTA GAME

8 IP/3 H/3 BB/11 SO

BAA .111/WHIP 0.75

GRADE: 97.22% (A)

RATES: 10.00% H/10.00% BB/36.67% SO

PER 9: 3.38 H/3.38 BB/12.38 SO

CURRENT QUARTILE RANGE

7-8.2 IP

3-5 H

0-2 R

2-3 BB

7-11 SO

0-1 HR

.103-.175 BAA

0.25-2.25 ERA

0.60-1.04 WIHP

One bad inning for Alfredo Simon this week and a win came in for the Reds. Simon has been impressive for the Reds as a spot starter for the injured starter Mat Latos. Simon absolutely eats up innings and could be competing against Tony Cingrani for innings. Simon was originally the Long Reliever and either Cingrani or Simon will be joining the bullpen. Cingrani was in the bullpen back in his college days and it would save a bullpen if he joined.

PITTSBURGH GAME

6.2 IP/4 H/2 R/5 BB/4 SO/HR

BAA .167/ERA 2.70/WHIP 1.35

GRADE: 85.00% (B)

RATES: 13.33% H/6.67% R/16.67% BB/13.33% SO/13.33% HR

PER 9: 5.40 H/2.70 R/6.75 BB/5.40 SO/1.35 HR

QUARTILE RANGE

6.2-7.1 IP

4 H

1 R

1-3 BB

4-5 SO

0-1 HR

.165-.175 BAA

0.84-1.64 ERA

0.74-1.09 WHIP

Speaking of Cingrani, he might be doing well to stay, but went pretty high in the pitch count in Pittsburgh this week. Another thing to point out that he had a 23 game streak to start out his career by allowing 5 or less hits. On Thursday, the Pirates managed to hit 6 hits off him, the first time he has allowed that many hits in a start .

PITTSBURGH GAME

6 IP/6 H/R/2 BB/7 SO

BAA .250/ERA 1.50/WHIP 1.33

GRADE: 89.51% (B)

RATES: 23.08% H/3.85% R/7.69% BB/26.92% SO

PER 9: 9.00 H/1.50 R/3.00 BB/10.50 SO

QUARTILE RANGE

5-6.1 IP

3-5 H

1-3 R

2-4 BB

5-7 SO

0-1 HR

.200-.211 BAA

1.50-5.40 ERA

1.26-1.60 WHIP

Most in Reds country are still questioning that $105 million contract, I wouldn’t question it. Bailey has been struggling so far this season and it is the NORM for him to struggle, just check his career splits. Bailey in my opinion is fine and will face opponents that struggle to hit in the next three starts.

ATLANTA GAME

6 IP/9 H/5 R/4 SO/HR

BAA .333/ERA 7.50/WHIP 1.50

GRADE: 66.67% (D)

RATES: 36.00% H/20.00% R/16.00% SO/4.00% HR

PER 9: 13.50 H/7.50 R/6.00 SO/1.50 HR

QUARTILE RANGE

5-6 IP

7-9 H

4-5 R

0-3 BB/4-8 SO

1 HR

.333-.350 BAA

7.20-8.31 ERA

1.50-2.20 WHIP

Week 4 Pitching Recaps

STARTERS

49.2 IP/41 H/17 R/14 BB/36 SO/7 HR

BAA .216/ERA 3.08/WHIP 1.11

GRADE: 84.49% (B)

RATES: 20.40% H/8.46% R/6.97% BB/17.91% SO/3.48% HR

PER 9: 7.43 H/3.08 R/2.54 BB/6.52 SO/1.27 HR

That is the most amount of innings pitched so far this season, Johnny Cueto pitched 17 of those 49.2 innings. Walks, Strikeouts were all in Quartile range. Hits, Runs and Home Runs were all there highest this week and in the 2014 season.

BULLPEN

11.2 IP/12 H/3 R/5 BB/10 SO/HR

BAA .255/ERA 2.31/WHIP 1.46

GRADE: 86.03% (B)

RATES: 23.08% H/5.77% R/9.62% BB/19.23% SO/1.92% HR

PER 9: 9.26 H/2.31 R/3.86 BB/7.71 SO/0.77

That is the lowest amount of innings pitched so far this season, due to Johnny Cueto pitching 17 of the 18.2 innings in his starts. Hits, Strikeouts and Home runs were all in normal Quartile Range. Runs allowed was also at its lowest.

April pitching as of 4/27

STARTERS

164.2 IP/128 H/53 R/52 ER/146 SO/21 HR

BAA .206/ERA 2.84/WHIP 1.09

GRADE: 85.43% (B)

RATES: 19.25% H/7.97% R/7.82% BB/21.95% SO/3.16% HR

PER 9: 7.00 H/2.90 R/7.98 SO/1.15 HR

BULLPEN

53.2 IP/56 H/29 R/29 BB/48 SO/8 HR

BAA .258/ERA 4.86/WHIP 1.58

GRADE: 76.12% (C)

RATES: 23.24% H/12.03% R/12.03% BB/19.92% SO/3.32% HR

5 NUMBER SUMMARY

It is very important to point this out to readers. The 5 numbers is a basic measure of what a pitcher does, same applies to batters. More about the 5 NUMBER SUMMARY

After reviewing the numbers, they’re lots of things to point out. Who stays in the rotation, Alfredo Simon or Tony Cingrani? What about Team vs Team stat, what team knows Reds pitching? It’s important to reach out to these numbers. In the 5 number summary, they’re OUTLIERS, they’re going to be plenty of those games. Outliers can either be a good or bad thing for pitching. One of the most important statistical measures I use are BAA, ERA and WHIP. Those three stats determine outcomes that are very important in deciding who is a clear candidate to be in that rotation or bullpen.

MORE ON THE 5 NUMBER SUMMARY IN THE APRIL REPORT FOR REDS PITCHERS ON THURSDAY MAY 1ST

PROBABLES FOR WEEK 5

CHICAGO CUBS

MONDAY APRIL 28: JEFF SAMARDZIJA VS ALFREDO SIMON (7:10 EDT)

TUESDAY APRIL 29: EDWIN JACKSON VS. TONY CINGRANI (7:10 EDT)

WEDNESDAY APRIL 30: CARLOS VILLANUEVA VS. HOMER BAILEY (7:10 EDT)

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

THURSDAY MAY 1: MARCO ESTRADA VS. MIKE LEAKE (7:10 EDT)

FRIDAY MAY 2: WILY PERALTA VS. JOHNNY CUETO (7:10 EDT)

SATURDAY MAY 3: YOVANI GALLARDO VS. ALFREDO SIMON (7:10 EDT)

SUNDAY MAY 4: KYLE LOHSE VS. TONY CINGRANI (4:10 EDT)

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