Two Belgian showdowns today, both with results we already know. But while Gareth Southgate and England are guaranteed progress to the next round regardless of what happens in Kaliningrad tonight, Theresa May, who arrives at the European Council in Brussels today, is not so lucky.

Today's summit was once supposed to be the point at which the UK and Brussels finally thrashed out the small print of their future relationship and agreed plans for managing the Irish border. Hopes of that evaporated a long time ago – it has since been downgraded from a "crunch summit" to a plain old “summit”. The focus will be on issues on which the EU27 need, want, and hope to make progress, namely migration – the issue that is really animating most of the bloc.

May will instead be given the chance to make a brief statement to the other 27 EU leaders on the state of negotiations and her next steps over dinner this evening. Helpfully, they have already told the papers what their answer will be. It ain't good. Team Macron tell the FT that May will be upbraided on the “serious and grave” lack of progress the UK has made, particularly on Ireland, before they retire for meatier discussions without her tomorrow.

Same as it ever was. But these messages of frustration take on an added significance when you consider how little time there is left to negotiate and agree on anything before the deal will have to be finalised – just six weeks, according to briefings given to British ministers and reported by Channel 4's Gary Gibbon yesterday.

May has to convince her European counterparts that her government is ready to present a coherent and detailed plan for Brexit in the form of a white paper that hasn't yet been seen by the entire cabinet, who are helpfully sound tracking its development by saying completely different things about what they want to see in it. Tory MPs are increasingly pessimistic that anything substantive will be agreed at Chequers next week.

In that context, it is no surprise that Brexit will be a sideshow at today and tomorrow's meetings. Nor should it be surprising that the EU27 are ramping up their preparations for Britain crashing out without a deal and making sure May knows about it. There is a very tart irony about that. The Prime Minister still officially believes that no deal is better than a bad deal but divisions within government mean that next to nothing has been done to make that line anything more than a line.

That very obvious lack of preparation means it's a line with no rhetorical or political force, no matter how much noise hard Brexit ideologues in and around government like Steve Baker make about following it through. The EU's clarity purpose has allowed it to nick the Brexiteers' trump card and use it against them better than they ever could.

Writing in today's Telegraph, May's former chief of staff Nick Timothy blames Philip Hammond and Greg Clark for blocking meaningful no deal planning and forcing May to accept a Brexit in name only on Brussels' terms. Whether a deal that ties Britain to the single market and customs union and maintains some form of free movement is actually the "very worst" case scenario Timothy fears is a moot point.

His jeremiad nonetheless illustrates how we got here: since May prematurely triggered Article 50 last March and then lost her majority, Brexit has essentially been an exercise in internal Tory posturing, backbiting and point-scoring.

In that vein, 1922 Committee chair Graham Brady has told the freelancing cabinet to shut up and support the Prime Minister. But infighting and indiscipline has corroded trust within the Conservative ranks and hindered Britain in negotiations to such an extent that it's hard to see it helping much. Today's summit will illustrate the sum total of those efforts: a British Prime Minister with very little to say and an EU that would much rather be talking about something else.

Despite it all, May insists her Brexit plans are still on track. The only issue with that contention is that staying on track usually requires wheels, and the government's came off a good while ago. Unlike Southgate, she can't get away with bottling today's clash in the hope of an easier ride later on. Both the EU and her own party need to see some sense of direction, or things will get much trickier at Brussels and Westminster. The October summit, and trade and customs bills, could be very messy yet.