AUSTRALIAN weather experts believe a drought-inducing El Nino weather pattern is forming again.

Bureau of Meteorology climate prediction manager Andrew Watkins said six out of eight international weather models now predicted a drying El Nino would influence northern and eastern Australia’s weather by July.

He said the models “at this time of year” had the “lowest degree of accuracy” but there was no disguising the rising Pacific Ocean temperatures, a key El Nino indicator.

Dr Watkins said he understood the El Nino warning alarmed many people.

“We try and give people the best information we have so they can manage their risk,” he said.

Despite errant predictions last year of El Nino returning, the bureau says it had a duty to raise the same alert.

“If there is a risk, and we say there is, we have to acknowledge the possibility,” Dr Watkins said.

The bureau issued similar El Nino alerts last year based on computer modelling and rising Pacific Ocean temperatures.

Dr Watkins said the early signs for El Nino were very strong last year and international experts urged the bureau to “call it”.

“But we didn’t call it because it did not have the classic signs. We copped a bit of flak, but it was the right way to go. Things haven’t completely gone back to normal since then.”

Dr Watkins said more time was still needed to forecast El Nino with greater accuracy.

“We still have to wait and see how the conditions evolve, a couple of months probably.”