The trailers hardly give any hints. The actors are forbidden from talking about their characters’ development. Instagram can easily be misleading. So the only things we have to go off of are the events that transpired at the end of Orange Is the New Black season 3.

Alex, Piper, and Stella

We can be sure that season 4 will pick up immediately where season 3 ended; official photos from the set show Alex Vause in the prison yard, seemingly running away from guards or toward someone else. So it seems as though she will survive Kubra Balik’s attack–at least for a little while. It sees as though she and prison mate Lolly Whitehill are going to be bound to each other with a dark secret, and my guess is that Lolly has been working for Kubra all along. Moreover, I also believe that Alex will be left alive in exchange for her services in prison. Perhaps Kubra will make her his inside-woman in order to repay him for giving up his name in court. And, I even suspect that Kubra might ask Alex to kill Piper, seeing as she is yet another risk factor in his case.

Judging by other photos (which may spoil a big plot line for Vauseman shippers), it seems as though the two’s relationship is far from over. While there is always the possibility for a dream sequence, the writers have refrained from including dream sequences altogether, and the addition of one would be out of character for the show.

While Lolly was not an actual threat to Alex, it may just so happen that she tells someone else that Alex is working for the CIA, which might stir up some trouble for the both of them. We will definitely learn more about Lolly’s back story–Christina Brucato is confirmed as portraying Young Lolly. We might even discover that Lolly had been keeping eyes on Alex all along.

Since Stella was hauled off to maximum security after Piper planted a bunch of contraband in her bunk for stealing all of her panty business funds, we can be pretty sure that she will not disrupt Alex and Piper’s relationship; however, Piper and Stella’s break up does not necessarily mean that Alex and Piper will get back together immediately, if at all. Moreover, sources have confirmed that we will have a look at maximum security life as well as life in the SHU, so there is a good chance that Stella will still be in the mix. Judging by her immense popularity, the writers might even give us some of Stella’s back story.

Maximum Security, Solitary, Overcrowding, and the Administration

As Litchfield becomes continuously more privatized, policies and regulations are bound to change, making Litchfield’s alumni vulnerable. And inmate numbers are continually growing. In the most recent preview released by Netflix, it appears as though all of the dorms have gotten bunk beds, which means more women and less space. This will also mean heightened tensions among the women. Additionally, more prisoners means more diversity. We can hope to see more Asians represented as well as the addition of Indian, Muslim, and native inmates.

The chaos will inevitably escalate seeing as most, if not all, of the senior prison guard staff quit once Joe Caputo turned his back on them. But it seems as though a new formidable lead Prison Guard is stepping in, a man to be portrayed by Brad William Henke, as pictured in the previews. It seems as though he will be even more intimidating than Pornstache. Given that the fully privatized prison is not going to tolerate any errant behavior, perhaps this man will send women in groups to maximum security and the SHU, increasing the likelihood that we will get to see some of our beloved inmates who have been sent to max and the SHU. The introduction of a what appears to be a hypermasculine prison guard also suggests that the prison administration and staffing will become increasingly male, which will pose further problems for the women of Litchfield.

Danny Pearson quit last season, which leaves room for Caputo to finally become the warden, as we learn from a shot in the preview that depicts Taystee as his secretary. Now in a higher position of authority, it seems likely that Caputo will become an enemy of a similar caliber to Officer Healy. Despite his promotion, sources say that Caputo will be in a decent amount of trouble for improperly handling Sophia Burset‘s attack by throwing her in the SHU.

Joel Luschek might come under fire for either letting all of the inmates run into the lake (without putting up a fight whatsoever) or for his involvement with Nicky and their heroin deal. Since Officer Charles Ford was the first to be tipped off by Angie Rice and Leanne Taylor about Luschek’s shady dealings, perhaps he’ll throw him under the bus before he leaves Litchfield for good.

This preview also pictures Sophia Burset in the SHU, which proves that we will finally be able to see who has been locked up. Aside from the obvious rights that she is denied in prison, it is speculated that the writers will finally explore the experiences of transgender individuals in the system, particularly in maximum security and in solitary, where Ashley Diamond reports transgender individuals are most at risk, for there are less eyes watching and protecting these individuals. It’s highly likely that we will get more information on Nicky Nichols‘ stay in the SHU. Some speculate that we will even reunite with Miss Claudette Pelage, who would be a much welcomed return to the cast.

Let’s not forget Mei Chang. With increased security, her private shed and hidden contraband will inevitably be confiscated and ransacked, as will her weekly orange delivery. Seeing as she has a solid connection on the outside, perhaps she will look (or be approached) to enter into a partnership once word gets out that someone had a personal contraband operation running out in plain sight.

Poussey and Soso

Poussey and Soso, both having sought Norma Romano‘s supposedly inclusive support group, will most likely go on to become a couple (or–at the very least–close friends). Now that Poussey has come to terms with the fact that her close friendship with Taystee cannot fulfill her the way she needs, this will allow her to fully open up to someone else (Brook) that can give her what she needs.

Seeing as the two have struggled with depression (and Poussey with alcoholism), they will find solace in each other’s presence and find strength in one another. Or they might make each other even more miserable; one’s needs might overshadow the needs of the other. The two may have lost Drama Class, but they now have each other at least.

As is typical when the storyline focuses on certain sets of characters, we can expect to get a little bit more of Poussey’s and/or Soso’s back stories.

Morello, Nicky, and Vince

Morello and Vince’s marriage might mean a change in name for Lorna; however, it will definitely mean a change in the way in which she and Nicky Nichols will relate to one another. Assuming that Luschek will take the fall for the heroin and that Nicky is released back into minimum security with Lorna, once the two best friends reconvene, there is bound to be a painful conversation about the events that had come to pass as a direct result of Nicky’s more restrictive incarceration.

There is a chance that Morello will be pregnant this season; however, even if she is not, perhaps Morello will begin to attach her fantasies of a dream life that can now be realized to the family and home and pets she will have once released from her sentence. What will become an issue is the lack of prenatal care that will be offered to her, as we have seen with both Maria Ruiz and Daya Diaz‘s pregnancies. As poorly as Litchfield handled these two pregnancies, there is an even greater risk if yet another women is to have a child while incarcerated.

Since Nicky tends to be a destructive kind of person when she is deeply hurt by something, we might see Nicky struggle with herself. I have suspected over the years that Nicky has been in love with Lorna, and now that she is married to Vince, it is bound to be a difficult adjustment for Nicky. Although the heroin was trafficked out of Litchfield, there is always another vice lurking around the corner (or in the ceiling) for one of the inmates to latch onto for dear life. Perhaps Nicky will find Poussey‘s hooch stash.

Pennsatucky, Boo, Maritza, and Flaca

After having a seizure while driving with C.O. Charlie Coates in the car, Pennsatucky will be reassigned to a different job, but now Maritza will have to fend for herself under the control of a sadistic rapist. The development of Pennsatucky and Carrie “Big Boo” Black‘s friendship since the end of season two will most likely continue and further flourish, seeing as Lea DeLaria (Big Boo) has been promoted to a series regular. While Pennsatucky has endured being used by countless men in exchange for a case of pop, just as she has endured rape before, perhaps she will undergo symptoms of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) that will serve to further question the health services that United States prisons provide. Moreover, Pennsatucky might be facing an unwanted pregnancy as a result of her rape. Seeing as she went to jail as a direct result of being insulted for having so many abortions, it seems probable that she will have to struggle with actually enduring a pregnancy this Tim around. If such is the case, perhaps Pennsatucky will out herself as not having been pro-life all along, which could compromise her church and pro-life sponsorships that have been feeding her commissary all along. Additionally, Taryn Maning revealed in an interview just the other day that she will be wearing a wig for the duration of this season, which might mean that she is either about to let her hair grow long in the midst of her depression, or she might shave off all of her hair in a moment of crisis as Manning’s real-life costar, Brittney Spears, once did back in the day.

It may be the case that Maritza and Flaca will grow closer now that Maritza is walking into the trap from which Pennsatucky just escaped. Jackie Cruz (Flaca) has also been promoted to a series regular, which suggests that we will be seeing a lot more of their relationship. Alternatively, this promotion may mean that Flaca plans to get back at Piper for cutting her out of the panty business after she stood up to Piper last season regarding fair wages in exchange for the women’s services. Although Pennsatucky fortunately had a solid support system, perhaps Flaca might be unreliable or not have the same depth of sensitivity to the issue as Boo did. Flaca and Maritza, although pictured as making up in the lake at the end of last season, have had their high and low points throughout the series, so it will be no surprise if they fall out of friendship with each other once again.

Last season hinted at Flaca’s mother suffering from Lymphoma. Her promotion to series regular additionally leads me to believe that we will learn more about her back story and even get to see some of her relationships with her family. Flaca mentioned that she was molested by her uncle as a child, so perhaps Flaca’s past and present will collide this season. If her mother is sick, she will indubitably apply for furlough. Whether or not it is granted, perhaps she will have to face this uncle and deal with long-buried emotions surrounding the abuse that she seemingly has tried to forget. Furthermore, if and when Maritza is forced to endure Coates’ advances, she will be able to relate and help her stand up to her abuser, despite the overtly masculine administration who will want nothing to do with the paperwork involved in the abuse and/or rape of an inmate.

Red and Healy

Red and Officer Healy‘s attendance at Lorna Morello‘s wedding suggested that they will both be seeking divorces from their spouses at the start of this season and perhaps even beginning a relationship with each other. Because Healy has been an untrustworthy figure since the very start of the series, I’m not exactly sure that we will see any changes in his character as a result of a fulfilling emotional relationship. With that said, Healy might be more hesitant to report Red or her “daughters” for their transgressions; however, this does not mean that he will not snap, just as C.O. Bennett did once the Latinas began taking advantage of him during Daya‘s pregnancy.

Piper and Red’s season three bunking arrangement allowed Piper to become fiercer–this experience awoke her “inner Russian.” This friendship is likely to persist, for Piper asks Red for a big favor–most likely Piper will approach her about reopening her lines to the outside world seeing as C.O. Baxter backed out of the operation at the end of last season. Knowing that Red will have more of a sway with Healy, perhaps the two will feel safe carrying out these arrangements, but we can be sure that Red is going to resist and even have an impossible request or task for Piper to fulfill. Perhaps Red will call upon Chang for assistance.

Piper and the Panty-Producing Pack

It’s no secret that many inmates are mad at Piper for her panty business greed. It’s even more likely that they will be after her once they learn that all of the money that was rightfully theirs has been stolen and that Piper has no money to pay them. Most likely they will not believe Piper’s story about someone stealing all of the money, as evidenced by a rather heated pack of women physically threatening Piper (seemingly led by Blanca Flores–perhaps we can finally expect her back story this season).

Things are bad enough for Piper that I would not be surprised if Piper is killed off this season. She has too quickly risen in the ranks and does not have the support to protect herself, as did Vee in season two and as does Red. Far too many people hate Piper for any of her designs to transpire. While Piper was once considered the main character of the show, Jenji Kohan has admitted to Piper being the Trojan horse to get audiences to watch a show that features anyone but prominently white actors. Personally speaking, I’m not sure that I would miss Piper if she were killed off, but I would also not mind seeing her fall to lower on the totem pole than she was when she first entered Litchfield. In some sense, Piper represents the stereotypical white individual that chooses to look away when racial injustices are committed. In a way, the more Piper suffers and changes, the more we as viewers are forced to question the Prison Industrial Complex and the function it serves in American society. However, seeing as Piper Kerman is an actual individual that inspired the show, it is more likely that Piper will become a supplemental character and continue to recede into the background as the series progresses.

Suzanne and Maureen

We can definitely expect a relationship between Suzanne “Crazy Eyes” Warren and Maureen Kukudio. It will be interesting to see yet another character with a psychological condition. While Maureen has not yet been diagnosed, it is my guess that she is somewhere on the Autism spectrum, as is Suzanne. I hope that, if this is the case, the show will explore the experience of individuals with intellectual and/or psychological disabilities in the prison system. We already know that Suzanne has been in the psychiatric ward, but since Litchfield’s privatization, perhaps we will see more inmates moved from that ward to Litchfield or even maximum security. Seeing as it is the private prison’s mission to minimize cost and maximize profit, perhaps the psych ward will be closed, and the prison might receive an influx of characters similar to these two.

The previews for the fourth season portray a severely beaten up Suzanne, which suggests that she may begin to endure some intense emotional suffering or psychological trauma that will cause her to self-harm, as we have seen time and time again. This may be indicative of a couple of events: perhaps Suzanne and Maureen become friends or romantically involved and subsequently get into a fight or one insults the other, leading to this outcome; alternatively, if the above case is true, perhaps several of the incarcerated individuals with psychological and/or emotional disturbances intimidates either Suzanne or Maureen; or seeing as the senior prison guards are no longer around, the prison guards do not particularly know Suzanne, which may lead to greater chaos and provocation of Suzanne’s condition. As C.O. Eliqua Maxwell told Caputo last season when expressing her concern about the new prison guards, she is better prepared to handle Suzanne than a new prison guard because she knows when she is just excited as opposed to when she becomes a danger to herself or others. Perhaps Suzanne’s injury will be the result of the guards not knowing her well enough to stop her when she actually becomes volatile.

Regardless, this season will hopefully reve all more about the pasts of both Suzanne and Maureen.

Daya, Bennett, and the Diaz Family

There has been much speculation about C.O. John Bennett‘s disappearance; some believe that Bennett is gone forever, whereas others believe that Bennett plans to leave his job long enough so that he can marry Daya and raise their children together someday. However, because he is not present on the day of their daughter’s birth (although he likely was not informed of the event), the latter scenario seems less likely. Others believe that Bennett staged the DA bust at the family apartment in order to get Daya’s siblings into after environments than the on in which they had been living. Regardless of what happens, I don’t believe that we have seen the last of Bennett.

The most likely scenario, based on Bennett’s crippling guilt for not being a “man” in Afghanistan, is that Bennett will return in some capacity and try to interfere with Child Protective Service’s redistribution of the Diaz children into the foster care system. His indignant response to Caputo‘s advice suggests that he wants his dream to come to fruition, even though leaving the family crib at the curb is not a particularly heartwarming scene. If anything, Bennett wants a new start for the Diaz family, and the supposedly “good luck” of the family crib is regarded as bad juju. In leaving that piece of family history behind and disbanding Cesar‘s negative influence on the family, Bennett just might be able to resurrect the Diaz family and pull them out of the cycle of incarceration.

Additional Predictions

Both Danielle Brooks (Taystee) and Kimiko Gleen (Brook Soso) were on Broadway this past year, which may or may not have affected their on-screen time on Orange. Seeing as Taystee appears in the preview and Soso’s character has a foreseeable future in Litchfield, it is likely that they will both reprise their respective roles, however limited they may be.

With Judy King entering Litchfield, it is likely that the whole prison will endure yet another power shakeup. While no inmate should ever be above another, perhaps King will be able to manipulate Litchfield into getting what she needs, like receiving special accommodations or even a private bunk because she is a “celebrity.” Regardless, she may pose a threat similar to that of Vee to both Red and Gloria Mendoza, who appear to have teamed up in the kitchen once again. Alternatively, King might be a positive addition to Litchfield, for the press will be aching to get inside of Litchfield, which we know has been forcefully shut out of the prison in the past. Even if one of her complaints rises to the surface of the Litchfield fishbowl, it might mean a step in the right direction concerning the media’s portrayal of prisons and the Prison Industrial Complex.

An official photo pictures King in the kitchen, suggesting that Gloria and Red will have yet another woman to fight for control over the kitchen, and thus the entire prison.

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