Has the war

in Iraq increased jihadist terrorism? The Bush administration has offered

two responses: First, the moths-to-aflame argument, which says that Iraq

draws terrorists who would otherwise “be plotting and killing Americans

across the world and within our own borders,” as President Bush put it

in 2005. Second, the hard-to-say position: “Are more terrorists being

created in the world?” then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld asked

at a press conference in September 2006. “We don’t know. The world doesn’t

know. There are not good metrics to determine how many people are being

trained in a radical madrasa school in some country.” In fact,

as Rumsfeld knew well, there are plenty of publicly available figures

on the incidence and gravity of jihadist attacks. But until now, no one

has done a serious statistical analysis of whether an “Iraq effect” does

exist. We have undertaken such a study, drawing on data in the mipt-rand

Terrorism database (terrorismknowledgebase .org), widely considered the

best unclassified database on terrorism incidents. Our study

yields one resounding finding: The rate of fatal terrorist attacks around

the world by jihadist groups, and the number of people killed in those

attacks, increased dramatically after the invasion of Iraq. Globally there

was a 607 percent rise in the average yearly incidence of attacks (28.3

attacks per year before and 199.8 after) and a 237 percent rise in the

fatality rate (from 501 to 1,689 deaths per year). A large part of this

rise occurred in Iraq, the scene of almost half the global total of jihadist

terrorist attacks. But even excluding Iraq and Afghanistan—the other current

jihadist hot spot—there has been a 35 percent rise in the number of attacks,

with a 12 percent rise in fatalities. Contrary

to Bush’s assertion, jihadists have not let the Iraq War distract them

from targeting the United States and its allies. The rate of attacks on

Western interests and citizens has risen by almost 25 percent, while the

yearly fatality rate has increased by 4 percent, a figure that would have

been higher had planned attacks, such as the London airline plot, not

been prevented. The globalization

of jihad and martyrdom has disquieting implications for American security

in the future. Jihadists are already leaving Iraq to operate elsewhere,

a “blowback” trend that will greatly increase when the war eventually

winds down. Terrorist groups in Iraq, which have learned to raise millions

through kidnapping and oil theft, may be in a position to help fund their

jihadist brethren elsewhere. Finally, Iraq has increased the popularity

of a hardcore takfiri ideology so intolerant that, unlikely as it seems,

it makes Osama bin Laden appear relatively moderate. Though few

American civilians have been killed by jihadist terrorists in the past

three years, it is naive to assume that this will continue to be the case.

We will be living with the consequences of the Iraq debacle for many years.

Mother

Jones’ “Iraq Effect” study was led by Peter Bergen and Paul

Cruickshank, research fellows at the Center on Law and Security

at the New York University School of Law. Read

the complete report here.