With the Grand Prix just days away and several sizeable GP trials under my belt, I think it’s the perfect time to take a stab at what I expect to see at GP Melbourne. Obviously predicting a metagame isn’t an exact science, but there’s a large number of events to look at and plenty of solid analysis that we can do to get a leg up on the rest of the field. Here’s what I’ve learnt:

Firstly, based on what we saw in in the previous Australian GP, Sydney – and what I’ve been seeing in Melbourne at the GPTs – I think we can expect about 80-90% of the field to be playmat users, but only 5-10% of them will be using matching sleeves and playmat. This is a pretty significant increase over what you’d have seen at the Pro Tour; it’s always important to remember that while the Pro Tour metagame will influence the Grand Prix metagame, it doesn’t dictate it exactly. If you walk into the venue expecting to see less than a quarter of the players using a playmat, as you’d see at the PT, you’ll be in for a rude surprise.

Now, while we can be confident that there will be a high playmat percentage, it’s harder to predict how many custom playmats you’ll see. They’ve certainly been seeing higher representation in the metagame recently, and I’d expect that trend to continue – a rough estimate would put 20% of the whole field on a custom playmat, but there can be a lot of variance. Scouting can really help in a situation like this, but even if you don’t have the time or the team to scout the field, you can still get a little bit of an edge with some keen observation skills: keep an eye on your opponent as they sit down at the table – if they’ve got their playmat in a case, there’s a very high chance you’ll be facing off versus a custom. Even a 20 second head start can give you exactly the edge you need in this spot!

As for the foils and alters metagame, it seems like the prices of modern – combined with the general sense that the format isn’t enjoyable and the threat of impending bans – is making players stay away from pimping their decks. I wouldn’t expect to play against more than 1 person all weekend with a fully foiled deck, although partially foiled decks will still be a pretty common occurrence – so make sure you’re still prepared! In particular, watch out for archetypes which share a lot of cards with Standard decks. Players with foiled Rally decks will have no qualms about using their appropriate fetchlands in Modern, even if it leaves the deck only half full of shinies.

Lastly, it’s worth remembering that the metagame within an event as large as a GP can vary depending on your record. If you’re deep into day 2 at X-3, you’ll have a pretty easy time of things – you’re much less likely to run into something that wasn’t on the radar at all. It’s when you’re already on the bubble by round 5 with an embarrassing 2-3 record, that you need to look out: you can definitely run into the “how has your day been?” while you’re looking at a 6-lander in this position, something that would never happen to you when you’re sitting at the top tables. It’s important to be on your guard at times if you do end up on a spot like that – nobody wants to have a lapse of concentration only to find themselves in the middle of a “high roll?” staring at a pair of 4inch D20s.

Hopefully you find this primer useful. If you’ve got any predictions of your own that differ, I’d love to hear why in the comments below!

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