Jan 4, 2016

TEHRAN, Iran — Official figures released by Iran's Interior Ministry show that the number of registered candidates for the country’s parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections next month has surged compared with previous polls, increasing by 100% and 60%, respectively. Although the Guardian Council is unlikely to approve all candidacies, the public is impatiently waiting to see whether prominent figures will get the green light. Key among these faces are Seyyed Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder; Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Expediency Council chairman; and President Hassan Rouhani.

The dominant conviction in political circles in Tehran, based on considerations of the political alignment of the Guardian Council and previous experiences, is that the most prominent Reformist and Nationalist candidates are likely to be disqualified. The fact that 12,123 people have signed up for the parliamentary elections — 1,434 of whom are women — and that 801 people have registered for the Assembly of Experts elections, has been of great interest to observers of Iran. This is especially the case considering the characteristics of Iran’s political parties as well as the political developments that Iran is likely to undergo in the next 10 years.

Indeed, conservatives are aware of the outcomes of a power shift in Iran. Therefore, they are quite concerned about the upcoming elections. Speculation is that if the Guardian Council approves the candidacies of Khomeini, Rafsanjani and Rouhani, this trio will be able to change the conservative face of the Assembly of Experts. Meanwhile, in the case of parliament, it appears certain that its current conservative face is about to change.

Mindful of the above, the surge in the number of registered candidates can be traced to five main motivating factors.

First is the absence of institutionalized political parties in Iran. The main and most important reason for the surge in the number of candidate registrations is that there are no real political parties in Iran. Although various political societies and factions are active and officially registered, they have been unable, for a variety of reasons, to assume an active role in society similar to that of political parties in Western Europe or North America. As long as political parties are not institutionalized in the political system of a country, each individual can be considered competent on his own. Moreover, since the norm of having political parties does not exist in Iran, some only put forth candidacies because they like the idea of going to the Ministry of Interior to register and getting the related media attention. In addition, considering the rate of unemployment and economic decline in Iran, certain educated but jobless individuals believe that becoming a member of parliament is an opportunity to gain access to better economic and political opportunities.