It used to be a common baseball term to refer to a team’s ace as a stopper. As in, the guy on the mound who ends long losing streaks. Now, it’s just as likely to refer to a team’s main bullpen guy. Or, even worse, as a team logo wine cork. But today, let’s go back to the original meaning. The Mets, losers of four straight, need Matt Harvey to be their stopper.

Last time out, Harvey pitched like an ace, going seven shutout innings versus the Blue Jays. But three of the four starts before that were just ugly. In that span, Harvey allowed 20 ER in 25 IP and had two outings with Game Scores in the 20s. The main culprit was the gopher ball, as Harvey surrendered eight homers in those 25 innings.

In 86.2 IP in 2015, Harvey has given up 12 HR and has a 1.25 HR/9 ratio. In 2013, he allowed 7 HR in 178.1 IP for a 0.35 HR/9 mark. So, why all the long balls this year?

Analyst Ron Darling is practically begging Harvey to move the opposing batters’ feet, saying teams are having too many comfortable at-bats against 97 mph heat. For what it’s worth, Harvey has already hit three batters compared to the four HBPs he registered in 2013. So, it’s likely to be something besides that.

But we do see that Darling is right that the damage is coming against Harvey’s fastball. According to Brooks Baseball, opponents have six homers and a .181 ISO against four seamers. And changeups have also been easier to hit, as opposing batters have three homers and a .268 ISO against 149 changeups this year thrown by Harvey. For a comparison, the competition had a .084 ISO against four seamers and a .010 ISO against changeups versus Harvey in 2013.

Harvey’s release point is similar to what it was two years ago, his spin rates are identical, as is his location. So, why the difference? There’s been more contact and when the batters make contact, there have been fewer ground balls and more line drives and fly balls.

And lefties are just killing him.

In 2013, LHB had a .178/.216/.240 slash line against Harvey. This year, lefties have a .224/.283/.429 line against him, with nine homers. Meanwhile, Harvey has been just as good this year as in 2013 versus righties. In 2013, RHB had a .603 OPS and this year they have a .605 OPS against him, even with the increase in homers. Here are his FanGraphs fastball spray charts versus lefties in 2013 and 2015:

We notice that lefties are pulling the ball with both more regularity and more authority this season compared to his All-Star year of 2013. Again, there’s no major difference in his sequence or his number thrown, release point or location between the two years.

The announcers praised Harvey in his last start for pitching backwards, using his offspeed stuff early to set up the fastball. That could certainly be the reason for his success in that start. Only four of his first 19 pitches were four seamers. Or, it could be that the heart of the order for the Blue Jays featured RHB Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.

Harvey may catch a break Sunday, with Freddie Freeman, the Braves’ best lefty hitter, possibly out again with a hand injury. We’ll have to watch how he does against Kelly Johnson, Nick Markakis, A.J. Pierzynski, Jace Peterson and any other lefties available for Atlanta. Pay attention to see if he throws fewer four seamers and more sliders and curves to the LHB or makes a conscious effort to pitch outside against them.

Because if Harvey’s going to be the team’s stopper today, he’s going to have to have better success against the lefties.

Share this: Email

Facebook

Print

Reddit

Twitter

More

Pinterest

LinkedIn



Tumblr

