Cruz, Huckabee vie for evangelicals at Iowa summit

DES MOINES — On the eve of the Faith and Freedom Summit, Ted Cruz has the edge among social conservatives in Iowa, according to this week’s POLITICO Caucus. The weekly survey of influential activists, operatives and elected officials finds that most Iowa Republican insiders believe the Texas senator has an upper hand with the key GOP constituency, but former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee follows in a close second.

Cruz and Huckabee are among the nine likely presidential candidates who will speak Saturday night to a thousand evangelical activists here in an event that qualifies as the most significant political gathering of religious conservatives in Iowa so far this year.


“Iowa’s social conservatives are fractured, but Ted Cruz is making all of the right moves to coalesce them,” said a top Iowa Republican, who – like all 81 respondents – answered the weekly questionnaire anonymously in order to answer candidly.

Added another Iowa Republican, “Huckabee has a lot of supporters in Iowa, but Cruz is making the argument that he is the conservative who can win by using every opportunity to tout his early fundraising haul.”

The summit, organized by Ralph Reed and Iowa Republican National Committeeman Steve Scheffler and held at a suburban church, will provide an important early window into whether Huckabee — who is likely to announce on May 5 that he will run for president — can translate a reservoir of goodwill left over from 2008 into support in 2016.

“It’s open season right now, but the candidate who shines the most at this event will probably be declared the new hot flavor of the month by Monday morning,” said an uncommitted Iowa Republican.

Also appearing Saturday night during a four-hour program are Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who would probably win Iowa if the caucuses were this week; Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, making his first appearance in the state since declaring his candidacy; and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who is trying to expand his libertarian coalition to include evangelicals.

A wild card to watch is Rick Santorum, who narrowly won the 2012 Iowa caucuses with the evangelical voters who powered Huckabee’s 2008 win. Most insiders don’t think that the former Pennsylvania senator will be able to hold on to his base from last time. But he’s accustomed to being written off, and he’s been spending as much time campaigning around the state as anyone else over the past year.

“Cruz has taken a lot of the room usually occupied by Santorum and Huckabee,” said an Iowa Republican. “I think it will be interesting to see if either of them can generate any of the old magic that led to their victories in ‘12 and ‘08.”

While Iowa religious conservatives do not vote as a monolithic bloc, historically a plurality of them rally behind a favorite. That’s how, for instance, Pat Robertson beat sitting Vice President George H.W. Bush in 1988.

“Cruz is the flavor of the month,” said another Iowan, “but it’s hard for me to imagine folks not coming home for Huckabee. Last time Santorum got the social conservatives by default. Huckabee had to take them away from someone else (the ugly, ugly race with Sam Brownback [in 2008]).”

Several long-shots are also looking for a breakout moment Saturday night at the Point of Grace Church in Waukee: Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who this week wrote a New York Times op-ed declaring his continuing opposition to gay marriage; former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who for a time in 2011 was an evangelical favorite; and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who has kept an aggressive travel schedule in Iowa and made active efforts to win over pro-life voters.

Unlike the cattle call that drew 19 potential candidates to New Hampshire last weekend, there will be no question-and-answer session — the audience will mainly hear stump speeches. And while the New Hampshire event spread across two long days, this event starts at 5 p.m. Central Time and goes straight through 9 p.m.

Most of the speakers have planned their own events around central Iowa during the day Saturday. Paul is having a renewable fuels press conference outside Cedar Rapids with Republican Congressman Rod Blum. Walker is appearing at a fundraiser for Republican Congressman David Young at the Machine Shed in Urbandale. Rubio will headline an ice cream social at the home of state Sen. Jack Whitver in Ankeny.

While the vast majority of Iowa Republicans named either Cruz or Huckabee when asked who has the edge among social conservatives, most cautioned that the field remains very fluid.

“I would not say that anyone has an edge,” said one Iowa Republican. “Huckabee has successfully brought many of his 2008 supporters back. Cruz has the attention of many for now. Santorum is building on the base he had in 2012. Jindal is making a positive impression, but will have a hard time braking through in this field.”

Social conservatives pack a significantly smaller punch in New Hampshire than Iowa. That’s in part because the Granite State allows independents to vote in either party’s primary and also because the electorate is more secular, but Cruz is also seen by GOP insiders there as the social conservative favorite.

This week’s Caucus found that 70 percent of Iowa insiders think Huckabee could win the caucuses but only 6 percent of New Hampshire insiders think he could prevail in that state’s primary.

“Santorum has already given up on New Hampshire, and Huckabee is taken even less seriously than he was eight years ago,” said a top Republican there. “But Cruz is running hard-right and is far out-shining his fellow social conservative candidates.”