Top story: PM’s last-ditch plea to ‘take a second look’

Good morning – it’s Warren Murray extending a few articles for you to negotiate.

The opposition ranged against the prime minister’s Brexit deal appears insurmountable as she prepares for the “meaningful vote” in the House of Commons this evening. Guardian analysis points to a majority of more than 200 MPs against the prime minister. Governments have been defeated by a margin of more than 100 votes only three times in the last century, according to records.

On Monday, May issued one final plea to parliament, urging MPs to “take a second look” at her deal and stressing that it was the only option on the table that could deliver an “orderly” exit from the EU. But there has been little sign of movement, with backbenchers hoping to seize the agenda in parliament and force the government to seek a softer Brexit.



Play Video 0:43 May asks parliament to ‘give this deal a second look’ – video

What are the likely outcomes? Our analysis leans towards May losing the vote and article 50 being extended, delaying Brexit beyond 29 March so that something can be worked out. On Monday, May declined to categorically rule out an extension. Jeremy Corbyn rallied a packed meeting of the parliamentary Labour party – only four Labour MPs have declared publicly that they could vote for May’s deal – as he prepares to call a no-confidence vote in his continuing pursuit of a general election.

Questions are meanwhile being asked about Facebook allowing an obscure pro-Brexit group, funded by unknown sources, to buy £88,000 in ads despite promises of transparency. Britain’s Future has spent more than £30,000 just in the last seven days pushing users to write to their MPs in support of Brexit. And if you think you should be stockpiling for a no-deal Brexit, other people are way ahead of you – meet the “48% preppers”.

Not ready for sex – More than half of women and two in five men start having sex before they are ready, researchers say. Having an age of consent is protective but can also pressure people into thinking they need to start having sex at 16, says Kaye Wellings, co-author of research from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. The data shows a “cliff face” of people losing their virginity at this age. But the message was not “let them have sex at 12”, Wellings said: “It is much more about the variability, that actually you might be 17, 18, 19 and not be ready.” For the study, “ready” meant using reliable contraception; being as willing to have sex as their partner; not feeling under pressure of alcohol or peers; and feeling it was the “right time”. The results reveal overall that nearly 52% of women and 44% of men were not “ready” when they lost their virginity. The team say 90% of participants did at least report using reliable contraception.

Rallies after Polish mayor killed – Shock and mourning prevail in Poland after the longtime mayor of Gdańsk, Paweł Adamowicz, was fatally stabbed at a charity concert. Thousands have been gathering in cities across the country in protest at what some say is a pervasion of hate speech into national discourse. In Gdańsk the European council president, Donald Tusk, addressed thousands assembled in honour of his longtime friend and political ally. “My dear Paweł, we are here with you today as your friends. You had to wait so long, until such a tragic moment, to see from up there just how many friends you have here in Gdansk.” The alleged assassin, a 27-year-old convicted violent criminal, told the crowd after the stabbing that he blamed Adamowicz’s former party Civic Platform for his jailing in 2014. Adamowicz was a hate figure in far-right circles for defending migrants, refugees and LGBT rights but no evidence has emerged of a political link to his murder.

Breast cancer ‘tool’ unveiled – Women may soon be able to find out their risk of getting breast cancer with the help of a GP and an online calculator. Cancer Research UK scientists say they can work it out by combining information on family history and genetics with details such as weight, age at menopause, alcohol consumption and use of hormone replacement therapy. The inherited genes BRCA1 and BRCA2 give women a 50% chance of breast cancer but the researchers have taken into account 300 genes that could play a part. The researchers are hoping to run trials of their online tool with GP practices later this year.

Carry on outsourcing – Trade unions say the government is pumping even more money into private providers instead of learning lessons from the chaotic collapse of Carillion. The lifetime value of outsourcing contracts awarded in 2017-18 went from £62bn to £95bn, says the GMB union, with contracts worth £2bn given to Capita and Interserve despite them issuing profit warnings. It is the first anniversary of Carillion’s failure, which has cost the taxpayer an estimated £150m and caused major delays to hospital projects worth millions in Liverpool and Birmingham. The government says it has acted to prevent a repeat but Unite, Britain’s largest trade union, says it is “staggering” that, a year after Carillion, none of its directors – damned by MPs for “recklessness, hubris and greed” – have faced regulatory consequences.

Don’t just stand there – People need to spend not just less time sitting at their desk, but more time on the move to cut their risk of an early death, researchers say. Switching out 30 minutes of sedentary time over the course of the day for low-intensity activity has been found to reduce the risk of an early death by about 17%, while heart-pumping activity such as running or cycling can cut the risk by 35%. Walking to a colleague’s desk to talk, strolling down the hall and back or having “walking meetings” can help, says Dr Keith Diaz, an expert in behavioural medicine at Columbia University. (But presumably not walking to the snack machine for a Snickers.) Prof Stuart Biddle from the University of Southern Queensland said it had long been known too much sitting was linked to poor health. “But when you stop sitting, you must replace it with something else,” he said.

Today in Focus podcast: A lesson from Birmingham

A school in Birmingham is attempting to buck the trend of increasing ethnic and religious segregation in the city.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest University of Birmingham School accepts pupils from all four catchment areas of the city. Photograph: Fabio De Paola/The Guardian

The Guardian’s Aamna Mohdin spends a day at University of Birmingham School, which takes its students from across the diverse city. Plus: John Crace on today’s Brexit vote.

Lunchtime read: The wall inside Donald Trump’s head

The US president may have backed away from a threat to declare a national emergency in order to get his Mexican border wall – but his preoccupation with his 2016 campaign promise persists.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The international border seen from Nogales, Arizona. Photograph: Matt York/AP

So what exactly is “the wall” and why is the president so intent on getting $5.7bn to fund it? Guardian US writers answer some of the key questions and examine how even far-right groups would prefer he focused on an “invisible wall” of stricter immigration policies rather than a physical barrier. Andrew Gawthorpe points out that even if a border wall physically stops refugees, they are still legally entitled to seek asylum in the US. And our reporters have travelled to five border locations to discover how Trump’s rhetoric jars with the reality on the ground.

Sport

Pep Guardiola said he has no “magician’s ball” to tell him how many points Manchester City may need to defend their Premier League title following Monday’s 3-0 win over Wolves that cut Liverpool’s lead to four. As the dust settled on Andy Murray’s thrilling exit from the Australian Open, Johanna Konta took nearly three hours to beat Ajla Tomljanović while Serena Williams, a projected quarter-final opponent for Britain’s No 1, looked impressive as she despatched Tatjana Maria in just 49 minutes.

The former British Cycling and Team Sky doctor Richard Freeman will face explosive claims that he obtained banned testosterone for an unnamed rider and lied to UK Anti-Doping when he appears before an independent medical tribunal next month. Harry Kane fears he may be absent for at least a month as Tottenham wait for the swelling around the England captain’s injured ankle to subside before scanning the joint. And Eddie Jones has been warned he faces a struggle to keep his England squad fresh given the demands placed on some players by the Champions Cup.

Business

Asian stocks have pulled ahead led by a bounce in China after Beijing signalled measures to stabilise a slowing economy. As Britain braces for the showdown in parliament over the Brexit plan, sterling has been sitting around $1.291 and €1.124 while the FTSE is forecast to open higher.

The papers

If the measure of a day’s significance is the drama of the newspapers’ front pages, then today is set to be a big one. The Mail is urging MPs to back May’s Brexit deal, telling them it is “Time to put your country first”. The Express is even more emphatic, telling MPs: “Don’t lose our trust for ever”. The Mirror is less hopeful for the deal passing, running the lengthy headline: “Dear Prime Minister, Your deal dies today. So, in the interests of national unity will you please open up your eyes (and ears) and start looking for a … Plan B”.

Several papers are predicting the day will not go well for the PM. The Times says “May braced for historic defeat on Brexit D-Day”, the Telegraph has “Out of allies, out of time”, the Guardian says “May facing crushing defeat in Brexit vote”, the i’s splash is “PM braced for crushing defeat” and the FT leads with “Tory Eurosceptics threaten May with humiliation over Brexit deal”. The Sun has its own priorities, relegating the Brexit vote to one column on the front page and focusing instead on revelations that Prince Harry meditates every day, under the headline “Harry Krishna”. You can find a separate roundup of the papers here.

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