I now have a canvass of the primaries in Harris County, so you know what that means – time for some precinct analyses. I’ve got a few of these to do, so let’s dive right in. First up, a look at the Democratic Senate race.

Dist Beto Sema Kimb ============================= CD02 20,865 5,038 3,388 CD07 24,094 5,473 3,202 CD08 1,122 429 303 CD09 9,188 5,123 7,181 CD10 4,528 1,787 1,153 CD18 17,597 7,087 10,491 CD22 1,901 811 569 CD29 7,915 5,920 3,094 CD36 5,289 1,807 1,157 HD126 2,639 1,186 932 HD127 3,082 1,354 1,158 HD128 1,895 837 612 HD129 4,647 1,319 811 HD130 2,863 1,006 656 HD131 3,358 2,103 3,343 HD132 3,170 1,661 970 HD133 6,644 1,103 621 HD134 15,443 1,401 742 HD135 3,187 1,612 1,052 HD137 2,016 793 460 HD138 3,341 1,176 673 HD139 3,971 1,953 3,039 HD140 1,032 921 595 HD141 1,582 1,400 2,441 HD142 2,497 1,830 2,577 HD143 1,756 1,734 991 HD144 1,101 892 281 HD145 3,120 1,385 406 HD146 5,086 1,986 3,071 HD147 7,747 2,113 2,787 HD148 7,075 1,363 515 HD149 2,031 1,088 860 HD150 3,216 1,259 945

Beto O’Rourke did slightly worse in Harris County (59.08%) than he did statewide (61.79%). The Narrative – I feel like it needs to be considered a proper noun at this point – has focused on his weakness in several heavily Latino counties, where Sema Hernandez drew more votes than he did. That’s not the story here, however, as O’Rourke had at least a plurality in all of the Latino-majority districts. He could have done better, sure, but he did have majorities in HDs 145 and 148, and came close in HD144. Stace talked about why Beto didn’t do so well in South Texas, but those issues were not as prevalent for him here.

Where he was weak was in the African-American areas. Beto had pluralities at the Congressional level, but came in second to the even-less-heralded Edward Kimbrough in HDs 141 and 142, and won HD131 by a whisker. I honestly don’t know if Kimbrough did any outreach on his own, but I do have a theory as to what may have been an obstacle for Beto. My guess – and Greg Wythe can correct me if I’m wrong – is that the voters in these districts are on the whole older than voters in other parts of the county, and therefore less reachable by the social-media-driven campaigning that Beto leaned on. I’m open to other suggestions, but if I’m right then I hope this gives his campaign some useful information about where and how to improve going forward, which I hope they use.

Beto was solid everywhere else, and downright dominant in your inner-Loop and higher-income places – 87.8% in HD134 is certainly nothing to sneeze at – so I think we can say that where his campaign penetrated, it resonated. I don’t know if anyone in the pundit class noticed, but there were 18,268 Democratic primary votes cast in HD134 versus only 15,068 on the Republican side, and that was with the Greg Abbott-driven conflagration over Sarah Davis. I have to think Beto helped drive the turnout there on the Dem side, with the Governor’s race also pushing things. If he can refine his approach in the places where he needs improvement, only good things can result. I’ll look at the Governor and Lt. Governor races next. Let me know what you think.

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