Professional obstacle course racer Hunter Mcintyre is the first athlete to ever be invited to compete at the Crossfit Games as a wildcard due to the 2019 Crossfit Games season format.

Many are excited to see him compete and others think he’s undeserving of the spot.

Although not a purely Crossfit-focused athlete, The Bulk Pony still does incorporate a good amount of Crossfit into his training. SEE: Hunter Mcintyre vs Jacob Heppner 18.3

As a participant in the 2019 Crossfit Open Mcintyre finished 1,092nd worldwide and 492nd in the United States.

He also has a number of functional fitness related accolades to his name that could definitely help him in August.

These include:

Six-time Obstacle Course Racing World Champion

Four-time Obstacle Course Racing National Champion

Three-year Steve Austin’s Broken Skull Ranch Champion

Two-time Tough Mudder X Champion

Do all of these accomplishments mean that he is prepared to take on the best of Crossfit, perhaps contend for a podium spot, and possibly even win it all?

With help from Scott Henderson of @Fitness.analytics we ran 100,000 simulations to determine how Hunter Mcintyre would have most likely placed at the 2018 Crossfit Games given his strengths and weaknesses.

The type of simulation used for the following data was the Monte Carlo method.

Monte Carlo simulations are used to model the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted due to the intervention of random variables.

To determine how well Hunter would do in each individual event he was given a range of his predicted outcome. Top 10, middle 20, or bottom 10.

EX: Marathon row – TOP 10, Clean ladder – BOTTOM 10

Using information from past Crossfit Open scores, obstacle course competition history, recorded training habits, and body style, Mcintyre’s strengths and weaknesses were categorized as follows:

STRENGTHS

Longer time domains (20+ minutes)

Monostructural tests (swimming, rowing, running, biking)

Odd objects

Lighter weight, lower skill tests

WEAKNESSES

Raw strength

Heavy barbell events

Range of motion

High skilled gymnastics movements

Before dissecting the results below please keep this in mind:

The simulation was kept simple, instead of trying to engineer all of the variables we just wanted to approximate where we see Mcintyre landing on a first impression.

THE RESULTS

Data courtesy of @Fitness.analytics

Based on these first impression simulations had Hunter competed at the 2018 Crossfit Games he would have most likely finished in the 24th – 28th place range with his highest possible placing of 13th.

Odds to win the Crossfit Games according to this data? Zero.

Data courtesy of @Fitness.analytics

Unevenness in this graph is because of spacing between the points of actual finishers. For example 24th place was 558, 25th was 548, 26th was 530, 27th was 516, and 28th was 486.

Data courtesy of @Fitness.analytics

If you notice the graph skews towards a better placing rather than a worse one. This is due to the Crossfit Games point scoring system that dramatically rewards wins and top finishes.

If Hunter comes in stronger than expected (strength wise) he could do better than simulated. If the events beat him down and he can’t recover like the other athletes he may do worse than expected. Again this data is simply designed to be a first impression.

With all of the changes, both known and unknown, that are coming with the 2019 Crossfit Games season anything could happen.

What are your opinions on Hunter Mcintrye being invited to the Crossfit Games, and how well do you think he will do?

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