Jeremy Corbyn is likely to ask MPs to vote on his own Brexit plan next Wednesday. If they say “no”, as seems likely, Labour may then call for the people to have the final say on whether we should quit the EU at all.

It is sometimes hard to decipher what is going on inside the party’s high command. But the leader of the opposition may be on the brink of a big shift in policy. John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, told the Evening Standard today that Labour is “moving towards” a new referendum.

The next step would be to put the party’s Brexit plan to a vote in the House of Commons. Corbyn said yesterday after talks in Brussels: “We will put a motion to Parliament.” This will be in the form of an amendment to the government’s own motion on February 27, according to the Guardian.

Labour’s plan includes a permanent customs union with the EU and a close relationship with its single market. Although this appeals to a few Tory MPs because it might protect the economy, it is anathema to most of them. Quite a lot of opposition MPs rightly don’t like the scheme either, because it would turn us into a rule-taker. So there’s little chance that the Commons will back the plan.

Nevertheless, putting it to the vote would be important. Labour’s conference in September mandated the leadership to explore all remaining alternatives including a public vote if it wasn’t able to force a general election. It failed to get an election last month. If the party’s own plan is now defeated, the only remaining option will be a new referendum.

Corbyn seems finally to be coming to this conclusion. This week’s defection of seven Labour MPs who support a People’s Vote – along with reports that dozens more could quit if he doesn’t back a referendum – may be concentrating his mind. So may the pressure from left-wing MPs in his party who have been operating under the banner, Love Socialism, Hate Brexit.

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A confirmatory referendum?

Whatever the reasons, the party leadership seems to be warming to the idea of a “confirmatory” referendum, according to the Guardian. McDonnell told the Standard this “could be a solution”. This proposal is modelled on how trade union negotiations work. The members first mandate the leadership to negotiate a deal; they are then consulted on whether it is good enough.

The proposal from two Labour MPs, Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson, would put Theresa May’s deal to the people. If they like it, we would leave the EU on those terms. If they don’t, we would stay.

The Labour leadership is still considering whether to support this plan and some senior figures are not yet onside. But McDonnell was asked to discuss the exact wording with Kyle and Wilson – and told the Standard the backbenchers had been asked to make some changes.

Labour politicians rightly don’t want to be seen to be blessing the prime minister’s miserable deal. But it should be possible to say something like this:

“We wanted an election, but couldn’t force it. We tried our alternative plan, but the Tories rejected it. It’s not for us to cancel Brexit, as the people said they wanted it three years ago. But given that the government’s deal is so damaging and so different from what was promised, the people should have the final say.”

Labour probably won’t get all the way to this position next week. But a vote on its plan in the Commons on Wednesday would take it one step closer – freeing Corbyn to take the final step soon after.

This article was updated after McDonnell’s interview with the Standard

Edited by Luke Lythgoe