In the past, extreme weather and disastrous harvests have proved socially divisive. We have been warned, say climate researchers

In the winter of 1432-33 people in Scotland “had to use fire to melt the wine before drinking it” ran a line in the research about the coldest decade of winters in the last 1,000 years.



Short of real temperature readings, descriptions of such incidents and records of rivers and lakes freezing over for months at a time, tree rings and ice cores are what climate scientists have to use to trace weather extremes of the past.

Although the summers of the period 1430 to 1440 appeared to be averagely warm, the winters were exceptionally cold. Even southern France, northern and central Italy had late frosts into April ruining the wheat and wine harvests. These conditions led to widespread famine.

While other cold periods in the last 1,000 years can be traced to volcanic eruptions, researchers think a number of climate anomalies must have come together to cause this problem.

Part of the research is looking at how the cold decade affected society’s attitudes. The famines and subsequent epidemics among the weakened populations were often blamed on minorities, although in some cities, including London, there was a more constructive approach. Communal grain stores were built so as many people could be kept alive as possible – the medieval equivalent of food banks.

With the erratic behaviour of the weather with climate change, the researchers say it is conceivable that Europe could have another run of poor harvests. That would raise food prices, but what are the other possible consequences, and who would get the blame? The researchers say we should prepare for such shocks.