Memo: John Kasich's PAC to position him as shakeup agent amid polling slide

John Kasich's political action committee is planning to position him as someone who has challenged the status quo, as the Ohio governor's polling slides while political outsiders Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina continue to lead national GOP presidential polls.

In a memo sent to donors and obtained by The Enquirer, strategists for the New Day for America PAC say they will shift from the experience-laden biographical ads that fueled Kasich's early rise in polls in New Hampshire, home to the nation's first 2016 primary. Kasich's polling has cooled since his quiet CNN debate performance last month.

"Messaging will share John Kasich's reputation as someone who has always shaken up the system to fix big problems," Executive Director Matt Carle and Chief Strategist Matt David write in the memo, describing what they call "Phase II" of their strategy. "Unlike the other candidates in the field, whom Gov. Kasich has called 'speechmakers,' Kasich has challenged business as usual in Washington and Ohio politics and actually has something to show for it."

The PAC will focus on a "showdown" between Kasich, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, the memo says. Kasich's allies are armed with opposition research about Bush, Carle and David write. And although the outsider candidates currently lead in the polls, no one can predict whether they will pose a credible threat when voters cast ballots in February, the memo says.

A move beyond biographical ads is a natural step in any political bid. Still, the PAC's shift in strategy acknowledges the difficulty of selling Kasich's experience-heavy talking points in the party's anti-establishment climate.

The PAC operates independently of Kasich's campaign, and the two organizations cannot legally coordinate. As the presidential race progresses, Kasich's campaign is also shifting course, with a stronger emphasis on concrete policy ideas.

In a national Pew Research Center poll conducted in March, Americans were split on whether they preferred candidates with "experience and a proven record" or "new ideas and a different approach." By September, 57 percent said they wanted new ideas. Only 36 percent said they valued experience.

Kasich's supporters think he has both, although the PAC's early ads focused on his record as governor and in Congress.

"I've been a reformer all my life. As you know, I shake up the system all the time. You know how much reform and change it took to balance the federal budget? I stepped on more toes than you can imagine. And coming to Ohio and reforming things out here," Kasich said last week on CBS' "Face the Nation."

"At the end of the day," Kasich said, "I believe the Republican Party will pick somebody who is a reformer, who is a change agent, but who has accomplished things and has experience."

The change in strategy comes as Kasich has drifted to a second tier in New Hampshire with Bush and Rubio, after polling as high as second place. Opponents, including Bush's allies, have started crowding the airwaves with their own commercials, and Kasich's debate performance last month lacked the sparkle of his first appearance. The most recent poll in the Granite State cut Kasich's support in half, from 12 percent to 6 percent, placing him behind Bush, Rubio and even New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

In the memo, Carle and David say they're comfortable with the race and confident Kasich's numbers will improve. But several donors called them in concern after reports surfaced last week about Bush's allies conducting opposition research at the Columbus-area library that holds Kasich's congressional records. So the PAC has acquired a 500-page book of research to use against Bush and his team "if and when they decide to go negative on Governor Kasich," the memo says.

For now, spokeswoman Connie Wehrkamp said, the PAC has doubled its latest ad buy in New England, taking its total spending to $6.5 million from July through October. To compare, Bush's allies got a later start than Kasich, but have said they plan to spend at least $24 million this year in New England, Iowa and South Carolina.

Kasich's PAC is also using data on voters in states such as Iowa and New Hampshire to target its advertisements and grassroots organizing efforts. Analysts can match information on Kasich's supporters with data identifying their friends, family members and coworkers, the memo says. Those connections are more likely to support the Ohio governor than a generic Republican, so the PAC can target them with ads, through on social media or direct mail.

Meanwhile, Kasich's campaign has also signaled a shift in strategy. Kasich launched his campaign with a heavy town-hall meeting schedule, in which he prioritized general principles over specific policies. He often said "I don't know" when asked how he'd specifically address an issue such as student debt or campaign finance laws.

Last week, Kasich started rolling out more detailed policies, starting with a call for a no-fly zone in Syria. On Friday, he kicks off a New England bus tour, evoking John McCain's "Straight Talk Express," the town-hall-tour strategy that McCain twice used to win New Hampshire.

"Public polling will continue to bounce around in a volatile race," John Weaver, the campaign's chief strategist, wrote in a recent memo. Weaver noted Kasich's endorsements by several New Hampshire Republican heavyweights. With their grassroots connections. Kasich "is in a far better position than Jeb Bush, who has extremely high negatives in all the early states, making his nomination doubtful," Weaver wrote.

Read the PAC's strategy memo: