Wisconsin vs. Illinois: Game preview, prediction

Jeff Potrykus | Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

TEAMS: Wisconsin Badgers (4-1, 2-1 Big Ten) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-3, 1-2).

TIME: 11 a.m. Saturday

WHERE: Camp Randall Stadium

TV: FS1 with Justin Kutcher (play-by-play), Demarco Murray (analysis) and Petros Papadakis (sideline).

RADIO: AM-920 in Milwaukee and a state network with Matt Lepay (play-by-play) and Mike Lucas (analysis).

TICKETS: Available.

LINE: Wisconsin by 26.

SERIES: UW leads, 41-36-7.

COACHES: UW's Paul Chryst (38-9, third season; 57-28 overall); vs. Illinois’ Lovie Smith (8-22, third season overall).

LIVE COVERAGE: Follow our live coverage from the press box

SCOUTING REPORT:Illinois at a glance

STATS, ROSTERS: Wisconsin | Illinois

LIVE SCOREBOARD: NCAA football schedule, box scores

FOUR THINGS TO WATCH

ON FIRE OR FLAT? The loss to Michigan ended any talk of UW making a run at the College Football Playoff. The UW players said all the right things this week, noting the loss wouldn’t affect their drive to win the Big Ten West Division title. It is human nature, however, to sag a bit after such a loss. Watch to see how hard and physical UW plays early against Illinois. That will be a good indicator of how well the players prepared this week. “We don’t want to hang our heads just because we lost two games,” wide receiver Kendric Pryor said. “We went undefeated until the Big Ten (title) game last year so it is weird that we’ve lost two games. We still want to win every game. We’re not going to mope through the rest of the season...we’ve still got half a season left to play.”

READ YOUR KEYS: Illinois quarterback AJ Bush Jr. generally won’t burn teams with his arm. He has completed a modest 54.8% of his passes (40 of 73) for 482 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Bush is most dangerous running the zone read or scrambling after a play breaks down. Tailbacks Reggie Corbin (7.4-yard average) and Mike Epstein (6.8) and Bush (4.4) have combined for 1,163 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. UW defenders must stick to their assignments or they’ll get burned for long runs.

UW OFFENSE SHOULD THRIVE: During the week the UW coaches and players during saluted how hard members of the Illinois defense compete play after play. Yet, the numbers reveal the Illini are struggling to contain opponents on the ground or through the air. Illinois is last in the Big Ten in total defense, allowing an average of 504.7 yards per game. The Illini no doubt will sell out to slow tailback Jonathan Taylor and test UW’s passing game. UW still might be able to find creases in a unit that is allowing 199.5 rushing yards per game, and play-action passes should be effective.

GET AFTER THE QUARTERBACK: UW entered the Michigan game with three sacks in its first five games. The Badgers recorded three sacks against the Wolverines and with outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel (ankle) getting healthier could be on the verge of a breakout. It won’t hurt that Illinois has allowed 17 sacks in six games, most in the Big Ten.

HISTORY LESSON

Illinois limited UW’s offense to 303 yards and four scoring drives in 11 possessions in the teams’ meeting last season.

But the Illini could not contain offensive lineman Michael Deiter, who was UW’s No. 1 left tackle at the time. It was Deiter’s 4-yard touchdown run that helped UW take a 24-3 lead with 3 minutes 54 seconds left in the game and spark a wild end-zone celebration.

UW faced third and goal at the 4 when quarterback Alex Hornibrook rolled right and threw a backward pass to the left side, to Deiter. Deiter caught the ball at the 15 and followed a trio of blockers into the end zone.

DID YOU KNOW?

Senior linebacker T.J. Edwards has compiled a total of 17 tackles, including five for loss, in UW’s last two games. Three of the tackles for loss were sacks.

Edwards is second on the team in tackles (36), one behind fellow senior Ryan Connelly. Edwards leads the team in sacks (three) and tackles for loss (8½).

JEFF POTRYKUS' PREDICTION

Illinois has accumulated some nice young talent and battled Penn State for three quarters before losing big in the Big Ten opener. Nevertheless, the Illini were outclassed at home by Purdue last week and don’t have the talent across the board to match up with UW for four quarters. UW will control the line of scrimmage and extend its winning streak against West Division foes to 16 with a 35-10 decision.