The Baltimore Orioles-Tampa Bay Rays game Friday at Camden Yards is a mismatch and the money line shows that, but things are a bit tighter on the total even though there is a hot trend to take note of.

All but two of Yonny Chirinos’ 12 starts this season have seen the total stay Under. One of those Overs was his last start on July 4, which saw a total of nine go Over despite the game being 3-1 going into the bottom of the ninth. The Rays righty has a WHIP of 0.99 and has given up more than three earned runs in one start this season. His mound opponent, the Orioles’ Dylan Bundy, has seen 10 of his last 14 starts stay Under.

Baltimore’s bullpen is in the bottom five of the MLB in ERA, but the Rays make up for it being in the top five. When these teams met in Baltimore in May, both games stayed Under.

With this being the first game back from the All-Star break, fresh starters should be able to deliver long, quality starts in a lower-scoring battle.

The play: Rays-Orioles, Under 9¹/₂ runs.