Anthony Fenech

Detroit Free Press

Justin Upton is probably going to be a Detroit Tiger for a long time.

Last winter, the leftfielder signed a six-year, $132.75 million deal. Included in the deal was an opt-out clause after the 2017 season, which many speculated could be exercised, given Upton’s age, ability and the amount of cash that teams were spending on free agents.

A year later, and things have changed. And while it’s entirely too early to speculate on Upton’s opt-out clause, it’s not too early to forecast a murky market for next off-season’s free agents.

In his latest analysis on ESPN.com, baseball insider Buster Olney checked in with a number of agents who believe this winter’s free-agent happenings – which have been underwhelming as a whole – will continue on the same course next year.

Some reasons Olney points out: Teams seem to be treating Major League Baseball’s luxury tax limit like a hard salary cap; free agents being forced to settle for one-year deals this season will flood the market once again next season; and big spenders – like the Tigers – are cutting back to avoid further luxury tax penalties.

Upton, 29, would be due $88.5 million over the final four seasons of the deal. He struggled during his first season in Detroit but turned in a career-high 31 home runs with a strong September. His numbers will likely improve this season, but probably not enough to garner a better deal on the open market.

The highest-priced free agent this off-season was Yoenis Cespedes, at four years and $110 million. Cespedes is two years older than Upton. There remains the chance that Upton – who is still in his prime – could have a big season and test the free-agent market again.

But for a number of reasons – many of them out of his hands – it seems likely Upton will be staying put.

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Contact Anthony Fenech: afenech@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @anthonyfenech.

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