America's tipping point: Whites to be minority in children under age 5 by next year



Census numbers show that racial minorities will make up over half of kids under 5

Whites to be the minority by 2043



For the first time in a century, deaths outnumber births in America's white population

For the first time, America's racial and ethnic minorities now make up about half of the under-5 age group and will be a majority by this year or next.

That's according to new census numbers that show a faster shift than expected toward a minority-majority, one where whites will be in the minority by 2043.



The new estimates also show that, for the fist time in more than a century, the death rate for white Americans outnumbers the birth rate.

Slow shift: Children under 5 in America will soon be over 50 percent non-white. By 2043, white Americans will be in the minority

The Census Bureau reported earlier this year that non-white babies now outnumber white babies.



Fueled by immigration and high rates of birth, particularly among Hispanics, racial and ethnic minorities are now growing more rapidly in numbers than whites.



Based on current rates of growth, whites in the under-5 group are expected to tip to a minority this year or next, Thomas Mesenbourg, the Census Bureau's acting director, said.

The government also projects that in five years, minorities will make up more than half of children under 18. Not long after, the total U.S. white population will begin an inexorable decline in absolute numbers, due to aging baby boomers.

WHITE AMERICANS BECOMING THE MINORITY MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED

New census numbers indicate that white Americans are shifting towards a statistical minority. Last year's numbers indicated that white babies are now a minority. Now the under age 5 group will soon be made up of over half racial minorities. As of 2012, 49.9% of children 5 and under were racial minorities. By this year or next, the number will be over 50%. The number of deaths now exceeds the number of births in the white American population for the first time in a century. The non-white population as a whole has increased to 37 percent of America. Fastest growth is among Americans who consider themselves multi-racial

Non-Hispanic whites currently make up 63 percent of the U.S.

Non-hispanic whites remain the majority in America, but last year saw more deaths in the demographic than births.



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The actual number of non-hispanic whites in America actually went up, however, due to 188,000 white immigrants to the U.S. from countries like Canada and Germany.

According to the Washington Post , the sharp decrease in births versus deaths was a surprise to analysts, who now project the phenomenon to occur regularly starting in the year 2025.

One contributing factor to the shift is age. Whites are generally older than other races. The median age for a non-hispanic white is 42. For Asians, it is 34, it's under 32 for African Americans and Hispanic Americans have a median age of under 28.

Another factor is fertility. Female fertility rates have dropped considerably in white women since the start of the recession in 2007.

In that group, fertility rates are now below levels necessary to maintain their population.

Demographer Ken Johnson from the University of New Hampshire told the Washington Post that non-hispanic whites are still choosing not to have children, despite a better economy.

And that will be exacerbated once the baby boom generation begins to die off.



'Once this recession has waned, we’re probably going to see at least a temporary uptick in births until death rates start to rise,' he said.

The Census reports that the number of whites will peak following resumed baby-making from an improved economy at around 2024 when the oldest of the baby boomers will be approaching 80 years old.

Surprise stats: Some of the changes to the U.S. population in 2012 were unexpected. There was a negative 'natural' population change of 12,400, meaning over ten thousand more white Americans died last year than were born The imminent tip to a white minority among young children adds a racial dimension to government spending on early-childhood education, such as President Barack Obama's proposal to significantly expand pre-kindergarten for lower-income families. The nation's demographic changes are already stirring discussion as to whether some civil rights-era programs, such as affirmative action in college admissions, should be retooled to focus more on income rather than race and ethnicity. The Supreme Court will rule on the issue this month.

Studies show that gaps in achievement by both race and class begin long before college, suggesting that U.S. remedies to foster equal opportunity will need to reach earlier into a child's life.

‘The educational system is likely to be the most widely used and most acceptable policy tool we have for equalizing life chances. But it does not seem so far to achieve this goal,’ said Timothy Smeeding, an economics professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who specializes in income inequality. ‘This specter of unequal opportunity may be the biggest negative social outcome of the continuing American inequality boom.’

The gap between rich and poor in the U.S. has now stretched to its widest since 1970, making opportunities to reach the middle class increasingly difficult.



Longer-term changes in family structure, such as a decline in marriage, have led to a rise in single-mother households across all racial groups, with the fastest growth now occurring among whites. More than 40 percent of newborns are now born out of wedlock, in families more likely to be low income.

All in the numbers: The rate of death, too, now exceeds the rate of births for American whites and racial minority babies already outnumber white babies

‘More so than ever, we need to recognize the importance of young minorities for the growth and vitality of our labor force and economy,’ said William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution who analyzed the census data.



Smeeding's analysis of the latest research and data on social mobility, provided to The Associated Press, shows that a child's achievement varies widely depending on a parent's education and income. The reason: More educated parents tend to have fewer children and generally earn more money than before, allowing them to spend larger amounts of time or money on a child's development, including music or art classes, extra tutoring, or travel and summer camps.

The gaps in achievement tend to emerge early in childhood, continuing through high school, and disparities are especially evident in SAT admission scores. College Board data show that average scores spread as wide as 130-140 points in each of the reading, math and writing sections for a student with family income of less than $20,000, compared with a student with family income exceeding $200,000.

About 40 percent of whites age 25-29 graduate from college, compared with 15 percent for Latinos and 23 percent for blacks.

Multiple factors: Just as more children are being born to racial minorities than to whites, the white death rate is now higher than the birth rate for the first time in a century

Obama proposed expanding pre-K education for any 4-year-old whose family income was below twice the federal poverty rate, or $46,000 for a family of four. That is an increasingly minority age group that would benefit from what Obama calls the single most effective way to boost educational outcomes.



The plan would be paid for by a nearly $1 per pack federal cigarette tax. But at a time of strapped federal budgets, Republican lawmakers have been reluctant to expand the scope of government or raise new taxes. Medicare and Social Security costs due to aging of the mostly white baby boomer generation are also adding to the government burden.

