Dan Wolken

USA TODAY Sports

A month ago, the consensus among those who make their living in the coaching search industry was that a seismic offseason was on the verge of taking place. But something unusual has happened since then.

Several coaches who were thought to be on the so-called “hot seat” have delivered job-saving performances, limiting the probability of a December free-for-fall for agent and search firms.

Though there is still plenty of season remaining and things could change, the prevailing thought within the industry is that coaching situations at Auburn, Texas A&M, West Virginia, Penn State, Vanderbilt and Southern Cal have stabilized. Plus, Notre Dame athletics director Jack Swarbrick’s forceful public statement that Brian Kelly is not in danger of losing his job means another potential huge opening is off the table.

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Obviously, LSU and Baylor already are open. Texas and Oregon may also be in the market at the end of the season. But the number of high-profile openings appear to be more limited at the moment unless there’s a domino effect from a big name like Jimbo Fisher potentially moving to LSU and putting Florida State into coaching search mode.

With a month or so until many of these schools face make-or-break decisions, here is the USA TODAY Sports assessment of potential job openings, based on conversations with several people in the business who on the condition of anonymity because of the subject matter.

ACC

Boston College: As USA TODAY Sports reported last week, the administration at Boston College would prefer not to make a move on Steve Addazio this year given the likelihood that athletics director Brad Bates’ contract won’t be renewed. Beating N.C. State last weekend to break a 12-game ACC losing streak certainly helped.

Georgia Tech: A school with limited financial resources that has paid far too many buyouts to both football and basketball coaches over the last decade will not be inclined to dole out $6 million to part ways with Paul Johnson (his buyout will be only $3 million after the 2017 season), but he’s certainly going to be on notice with new athletics director Todd Stansbury coming in.

N.C. State: The likelihood of making a change here has gone up significantly in recent weeks as the Wolfpack’s season has spiraled. Dave Doeren has a 7-21 record in ACC games and is unlikely to make a bowl game this season. His contract includes a reasonable $2.52 million buyout after this season with an offset clause that would reduce the number by any salary he makes in his next job.

Big 12

Baylor (already open): Names with connections to Texas high schools like California’s Sonny Dykes and SMU’s Chad Morris will likely be in play.

Kansas: Opinion is mixed on whether David Beaty will get a third year at Kansas. Though there has been some improvement in the quality of play, he’s still just 1-19 overall and 0-14 in Big 12 games and has a reasonable $1.6 million buyout. But his fate might be tied to athletics director Sheahon Zenger, who himself can’t afford another football failure after the Charlie Weis disaster.

Kansas State: It remains unclear, even to those close to Kansas State, when 77-year old Bill Snyder is going to retire. But at his age, it’s always a possibility.

Texas: Athletics director Mike Perrin recently hinted that eight wins would be enough for Charlie Strong to keep his job. For the Longhorns, that means winning out in the final four games at Texas Tech, vs. West Virginia, at Kansas and vs. TCU. It’s not impossible, and the good vibes from last weekend’s upset against Baylor will help. But this is still a highly unstable situation, and some of the fundamental issues won’t necessarily be solved by beating a series of Big 12 lightweights.

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Big Ten

Illinois: This is a dark horse, but so far the Lovie Smith era has not started well. Not only is he proving to be an odd fit at the college level, but recruiting has gone poorly (Rivals ranks Illinois’ current class 59th with 11 commitments). With a $19 million buyout, Illinois isn’t going to fire him, but could he end up back in the NFL?

Minnesota: The conventional wisdom is that first-year athletics director Mark Coyle would like to bring in his own guy, which makes sense given that Tracy Claeys is working on a three-year contract after being elevated to head coach last season. With a buyout of $541,667, there’s no financial issue preventing a change. But at 6-2 with more winnable games on the schedule, Claeys may be too popular to get rid of by the end of the season.

Purdue: This job is already open, and athletics director Mike Bobinski has hired Glenn Sugiyama of DHR International search firm to run the search. Sugiyama likes swinging for big names first, which could bring Les Miles into the fold.

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Pac 12

Arizona State: Though the Sun Devils have not looked good at all in conference play, Todd Graham’s $14.2 million buyout is prohibitive and his contract may be too lucrative for him to walk away. But how uncomfortable will it get after consecutive mediocre seasons?

Oregon: Beating Arizona State last weekend relieved some of the pressure, but the Ducks’ finishing schedule will be challenging. If Oregon finishes poorly, it may force the administration/Nike’s hand to make a move.

UCLA: Jim Mora is almost certainly safe despite this year’s 3-5 disaster, but assuming he comes back in 2017 and doesn’t go job-hunting himself, it’s fair to expect significant changes on his coaching staff.

USC: Freshman quarterback Sam Darnold’s emergence has stabilized the Trojans and solidified belief around the program and those close to Helton that he will be back in 2017.

SEC

LSU: If the Tigers beat Alabama this week, all bets are off because there will be huge pressure to name Ed Orgeron the permanent coach. The more likely scenario is throwing a huge offer at Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher, and there’s increasing chatter he might make the leap.

Tennessee: This one only emerged over the weekend as the Vols lost to South Carolina, then lost running back Jalen Hurd to an unusual midseason transfer. How much trouble is going on in Knoxville behind the scenes? It’s very, very unlikely Tennessee would make a move, but this season couldn’t be going worse for Butch Jones.

Kentucky: Mark Stoops has turned around the season after an ominous start. The Wildcats are looking good to make a bowl game, and that should be enough to guarantee his return in 2017.

Vanderbilt: Beating Georgia almost certainly saved Derek Mason’s job for another year.

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American

Cincinnati: Tommy Tuberville needed a big year, and at 4-4 it’s not looking likely to happen. His buyout dips from $2.4 million to $1.5 million on Dec. 8.

Connecticut: The Huskies have taken a big step backwards this year, but it’s unlikely the school will look to oust Bob Diaco. He’ll certainly be on notice heading into 2017.

Conference USA

FIU: The school is already looking, and don’t be surprised if athletics director Pete Garcia targets his old friend Butch Davis, who wants to get back into coaching but hasn’t generated much interest.

Florida Atlantic: The trend lines have been poor for Charlie Partridge, who is just 7-25 overall and 1-7 this season. It would cost the school $1.2 million to part ways.

Rice: There hasn’t been a ton of chatter about this situation, but David Bailiff is having the worst season of his 10-year tenure at 1-7. Athletics director Joe Karlgaard is a young guy with a Stanford background, which is worth keeping in mind if he makes a change.

UTEP: There’s some interesting speculation this could be a low-profile landing spot for Art Briles if the school fires Sean Kugler, who is 16-29 overall and has just a $516,831 buyout.

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Mid-American Conference

Bowling Green: It’s unlikely the school can afford/will pay Mike Jinks’ $1.64 million buyout after selecting him last year to replace Dino Babers, but this season has been such a disaster at 1-7 that it wouldn’t be a total shock if he’s one-and-done.

Miami (Ohio): A lot of MAC observers think this is the best job in the conference, and the question is whether Chuck Martin has made enough progress in his third season. After starting 0-6, they’ve won three straight, which could help turn the tide.

Northern Illinois: Rod Carey’s career 23-5 record against MAC opponents is a strong case for him keeping his job, but the league’s standard bearer of recent years has struggled this season at 2-6 overall. If the Huskies can close with some momentum, he’ll probably get another year.

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Mountain West

Fresno State: Tim DeRuyter was fired earlier this month, and much of the speculation has focused on former California coach Jeff Tedford. Others who could be involved include USC special teams coach John Baxter and Florida offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier.

San Jose State: The next two games against Boise State and Air Force could be critical for Ron Caragher, whose team is 3-6. His buyout is $592,307.

Sun Belt

Georgia State: Trent Miles was on the verge of losing his job last year until the Panthers went on a four-game winning streak and made a bowl game for the first time in school history. This year has been a regression at 2-6 with wins over Texas State and Tennessee-Martin, and Miles’ $285,678 buyout is not prohibitive.

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