Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:00PM

by Abe Fried-Tanzer

The current state of world affairs is undoubtedly going to have an effect on the movie year and the ensuing awards, with new streaming eligibility considerations announced for the Golden Globes. The Emmy Awards, on the other hand, won’t be affected to the same degree. While the nominations announcement has already been pushed back two weeks and how, when, and where trophies will be handed out needs to be figured out, the actual content that will be rewarded has, for the most part, already been seen. While a few shows that aren’t major category players these days – like Grey’s Anatomy, The Walking Dead, and The Flash – won’t be able to finish filming their seasons, and the fourth season of Fargo will no longer premiere this spring, almost everything else aired as planned.

The most interesting Emmy category this year is one of the top races: Best Drama Series. In an unprecedented case created in part by the Emmy eligibility window, there are eleven (!!!) programs nominated for their most recent seasons vying for a repeat nomination, and that doesn’t even take into account any new shows for the seven available slots…

To be considered for the upcoming Emmys, a show needs to have aired between June 1st, 2019 and May 31st, 2020. Most series, at least up until recently, would premiere around the same time each year, in September or January, making them consistent contenders. That wasn’t always the case with premium cable like HBO. Streamers like Netflix have since completely upended any sense of consistency. As a result, if, say, even just thirteen months pass between the end of one season and the start of another, a show might end up skipping an Emmy ceremony. I remember this happening in 2001-2002, my first year paying attention to all things awards. The Sopranos aired its third season from March through May in 2001, and then season four didn’t start until September 2002. That opened up some room in the Emmy lineup, making way for freshman series like Six Feet Under (which actually aired its first two seasons within one window, from June through August 2001 and then again in March 2002) and 24.

That brings up to our complicated current situation. To tackle this year’s top possibilities, it’s helpful to look at a grid of the last four years of nominees.

THE PAST FOUR YEARS

with Game of Thrones out of the way, something else can finally win big



In 2016-2017, the end of Downton Abbey and the absence of Game of Thrones should have opened up two slots. Instead, a whopping five new freshman series joined just two returning contenders. Those other two shows, Better Call Saul and House of Cards, then took the 2017-2018 season off, making room for Game of Thrones and for the final season of The Americans. And then last season, four of those five new 2016-2017 entrants (all except for This Is Us) opted not to go up against juggernaut and eventual winner Game of Thrones, in its final season. That made room for Better Call Saul to rejoin the lineup and invited three new freshmen and two sophomore series.

2019/2020 Season

That brings us to this season. Game of Thrones is done. Of last year’s lineup, the only other nominee not back is Bodyguard, which has yet to announce a premiere date for its second iteration. Those four series not mentioned last season are all back in contention, which brings the number of shows seeking another “consecutive” bid to ten. But that’s not all. Big Little Lies was considered a limited series when it swept the Emmy races back in 2016-2017, but its second season is eligible in the regular "drama series" category. It’s also one of the only shows that merited both Golden Globe and SAG bids, which adds another bit of precursor complication.

Since those two awards bodies hand out their prizes at the end of the calendar year, the shows in contention don’t always line up. The second season of Killing Eve earned a top Globe bid, while the third, premiering in April, will vie for the Emmys. Ozark also just dropped its third season, so after a major SAG showing in 2018, it sat out the 2019 awards altogether. As a result, the only series to join Big Little Lies in the top Globe and SAG races was The Crown, featuring an all-new cast that won the ensemble prize from SAG.

So where does that leave us? Many prognosticators believe that Succession is the frontrunner, but I’m not so sure. It took home a writing award last year but didn’t manage any acting bids for season one, and even though it scored both Best TV Series – Drama award and best actor for Brian Cox at the Golden Globes for season two, it didn’t get any recognition at the SAG Awards. Globe voters have forgotten all about The Handmaid’s Tale, Stranger Things, and This Is Us, but they still earned accolades from SAG, even if two-time winner This Is Us was dropped from the ensemble race, which has many believing it won’t earn a bid despite its fourth season being the strongest yet. It’s hard to imagine that The Handmaid’s Tale, which scored eleven bids last year for its “hanging episodes” aired in June 2019 from season two, would be left off, or that Westworld, which is airing right now, wouldn’t merit the attention of voters. I also believe people are underestimating Killing Eve, which earned a boatload of nominations last year and is the only series yet to premiere, with its premiere moved up two weeks to April 12th.

NEWBIES?

Lastly, we haven’t covered new series. The Morning Show is the only one to earn a mention from the Globes, and even though star Jennifer Aniston, one of three nominated performers, triumphed with SAG, the ensemble wasn’t in contention. The Outsider and The Mandalorian have some buzz. And there are three new streaming services still set to debut, which could bring a whole wave of contenders we haven’t even considered yet.

It’s worth revisiting closer to the July 28th nominations announcement, but for now, it may just be that the likeliest contenders are all returning series, like in 2017-2018, with a potential lineup maybe looking like so:

PREDICTION

Better Call Saul

The Crown

Killing Eve

Ozark

Succession

This Is Us

Westworld

What shows do you think have the best shot at Best Drama Series this year?

Over the next few weeks, we’ll be covering more Emmy categories as we spend altogether too much time at home watching TV!