If there’s an abiding lesson from 2016, it’s that national public opinion in the presidential race is not as important as the votes of individual states. Republican Donald Trump won by taking 304 electoral votes to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s 227, even as Clinton beat him by 2.9 million votes and 2.1 percentage points nationally.

In 2020, Democrats will be looking to recapture states Trump won that went for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. And many of those states will also be prime battlegrounds in the fight for control of the Senate, where Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take a majority (three if they win the White House and the vice president can break 50-50 ties), while Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to retake the House.

A look at Texas, the most competitive state in the West, is below. These links will take you to the most competitive states in the East, the Midwest and the South.

Texas

Democrats have long been optimistic that the once reliably red Texas was moving in their direction, and they think they may have a shot at turning it blue in 2020. Republicans acknowledge the Lone Star State is becoming more competitive, but say Democrats still have a long way to go.

Texas presents a large prize in the presidential race: 38 electoral votes, the second-most of any state after California. Trump carried Texas by 9 points in 2016, but that was the smallest margin of victory for a GOP presidential nominee in Texas in 20 years. Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro is vying for the Democratic nomination, but is far behind leaders of the pack in national and early-state polls.