Ted Cruz will deal Donald Trump an emphatic defeat in Wisconsin next week.

That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus – a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 10 key battleground states. Nearly nine-in-10 Republicans in those states chose Cruz as the likely winner of next Tuesday’s Wisconsin presidential primary.

Among Democrats, Caucus members by a nearly two-to-one margin predicted Bernie Sanders would defeat Hillary Clinton.


In the Republican race, insiders said Cruz has surged ahead of Trump in Wisconsin thanks to GOP Gov. Scott Walker’s endorsement and an electorate that isn’t as favorable to Trump as those in other states.

“Governor Walker's endorsement will help Cruz,” said one Wisconsin Republican, who, like all respondents, completed the survey this week anonymously. “And Trump's bit just does not play with the southeast Wisconsin GOP base.”

“The drumbeat of doubts about Trump is finally catching up to him, and Ted Cruz will be the beneficiary,” added an Iowa Republican. “Plus, Cruz is working the grassroots hard, knowing those campaign volunteers will turn into Cleveland delegates.”

In fact, a number of Republican insiders across the swing states suggested that Trump’s likely defeat in Wisconsin will be the canary in the coal mine for a candidate finally faltering under the weight of his blusterous missteps. A number of Republicans, however, also acknowledged that might be “wishful thinking.”

“The Wisconsin primary may be (wishful thinking, perhaps) the moment when Republican primary voters finally realize they have screwed the pooch and attempt to self-correct,” said a Pennsylvania Republican.

Added a Republican in North Carolina: “Trump is beginning to do to himself what [Jeb] Bush and others could not do, erode the Trump candidacy.”

And an Iowa Republican took the long view: “Perhaps the long, tortured presidential caucus/primary process is worth it after all. It has taken nine months, but the American public is at last able to see Trump's nutty, know-nothing narcissism in clear relief.”

Some Republicans cautioned that the race could be closer than the 10-point margin indicated in a recent poll – especially with the unpredictability surrounding John Kasich’s candidacy.

“The Republican faithful will vote Cruz as an anti-Trump vote,” said a Wisconsin Republican. “It will be interesting to watch Kasich in this. Many Wisconsin Republicans are moderate and would tend to favor Kasich. Many ads [are] indicating a vote for Kasich is a ‘vote for Trump.’ Not sure if this is going to be followed by voters.”

With Kasich lagging in third place in the Wisconsin polls, GOP insiders were also asked whether the Ohio governor should leave the race if he finishes behind Cruz and Trump. It was a split decision: 53 percent said he should drop out, creating a head-to-head match-up between Cruz and Trump. But the other 47 percent said he should stay.

“The party can no longer suffer the vanity of a candidate who believes he can be the choice of a contested convention after last place finishes in state after state,” said an Ohio Republican – the only one in their state to say the governor should leave the race. “Why on earth would delegates looking to stop a Trump nomination select a candidate whose presence in the race at this point only serves to make a Trump nomination more likely?”

“If Kasich can't win an upper Midwestern state, it's time to stand down,” added a Colorado Republican.

But other Republicans said Kasich should remain in the race – arguing it might be the best chance to avoid a Trump nomination. One Florida Republican pointed to upcoming primaries in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic later this month as evidence that Kasich still has a role to play.

“Kasich should stay through every state he can win delegates in,” the Florida Republican said. "His job is not to set up the one-on-one, because I am not sure Cruz can beat Trump in that binary choice in the Northeast.”

“His presence in the race makes it harder for Trump to win in states like Pennsylvania and Rhode Island,” added an Ohio Republican. “And anyone who says they know how an open convention will go is fooling themselves. Once it gets to a second ballot anything can happen, and if John Kasich thinks he has a shot to win, he should stay in.”

In the Democratic race, 64 percent of insiders said Sanders would win in Wisconsin on Tuesday, compared to 36 percent for Clinton. But among Democratic insiders in Wisconsin, sentiment was nearly unanimous that the race would be tight.

“I think it will be really close,” said one Wisconsin Democrat. “I am going to say Bernie because he's had a ground game in place here for a long, long time.”

Added another: “Our Democrats tend to be quite progressive. It's our history, it's part of our culture.”

Some Clinton supporters are hoping that the former secretary of state’s narrow victories in some other Midwestern states would portend a stronger-than-expected performance.

“I think Bernie will have a slight edge in Wisconsin based on some of the demographics, but [I’m] hoping for an upset from Hillary like in Ohio, Missouri, Illinois, etc.,” a Wisconsin Democrat said.

And one Wisconsin Democrat stressed that a close victory for either candidate won’t change the delegate math much, given Democrats’ proportional rules.

“It's gonna be close,” the Democrat said. “It'll likely be a delegate tie. Don't believe the hype that Bernie won another big Midwestern state. She'll get the same results he will, spending much less money to do so.”

But another Wisconsin Democrat suggested Sanders could win bigger than expected, running up big margins in Madison, the college-town and state capital.

“Bernie owns Mad-City,” the Democrat said.

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this survey:

Colorado: Adam Eichberg, Alan Salazar, Andrew Freedman, B.J. Nikkel, Craig Hughes, Frank McNulty, Karen Middleton, Laura Carno, Matt Chandler, Michael Fortney, Owen Loftus, Pat Waak, Pete Maysmith, Rick Ridder, Rob Witwer, Roxane White, Steve Welchert, Taylor West, Ted Harvey, Will Coyne

Florida: Alia Faraj-Johnson, Andrea Reilly, Andrew Weinstein, Andrew Wiggins, April Schiff, Ashley Walker, Ben Pollara, Beth Matuga, Brian E. Crowley, Chris Korge, Christian Ulvert, Damien Filer, David Beattie, David Johnson, Dennis Baxley, Elizabeth Cuevas-Nuender, Eric Johnson, Eric Jotkoff, Fernand R. Amandi, Fred Menachem, Gus Corbella, Jacki Lee, Jessica D. Ehrlich, Joe Mobley, John Dowless, Jon Mills, Joseph Falk, Judith Diaz, Justin Day, Kelly Cohen, Kevin Cate, Kevin Sweeny, Marian Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Marty Fiorentino, Max Steele, Nelson Diaz, Nick Iarossi, Pamela Burch Fort, Rich Heffley, Richard R. Swann, Rick Wilson, Roger Stone, Ronald L. Book, Ryan Duffy, Ryan Wiggins, Scott Arceneaux, Slater Bayliss, Steve Schale, Steven Vancore, Susan A. MacManus, Tim Baker, Wayne Bertsch

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

Nevada: Adam Khan, Andres Ramirez, Andrew Diss, Barbara Buckley, Bob Cavazos, Brendan Summers, Chip Evans, Chuck Muth, Dan Hart, Daniel Stewart, Ed Williams, Emmy Ruiz, Erven T. Nelson, Greg Bailor, Heidi Wixom, Jack St. Martin, James Smack, Jay Gertsema, Jeremy Hughes, Jim DeGraffenreid, Jon Ralston, Kristen Orthman, Laura Martin, Linda Cavazos, Lindsey Jydstrup, Mac Abrams, Mari St. Martin, Marla Turner, Megan Jones, Michael McDonald, Michelle White, Mike Slanker, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Oscar Goodman, Pat Hickey, Paul Smith, Pete Ernaut, Peter Koltak, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Roberta Lange, Ryan Erwin, Ryan Hamilton, Sam Lieberman, Scott Scheid, Yvanna Cancela, Zach Hudson

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

North Carolina: Anita S. Earls, Brad Thompson, Bruce Thompson, Charles Wallin, Christopher Sgro, Dee Stewart, Douglas Wilson, Dylan Frick, Francis X. De Luca, Jonathan Felts, Melissa Reed, Michael Luethy, Morgan Jackson, Paul Shumaker, Patsy Keever, Ray Martin, Robin Hayes, Tami Fitzgerald, Taylor Griffin, Theresa Kostrzewa, Thomas Mills

Ohio: Bill DeMora, Bob Clegg, Cindy Demse, Damareo Cooper, David Leland, David Pepper, Erica Bruton, Greg Beswick, Ian James, Jai Chabria, Janet Carson, Jo Ann Davidson, Joe Hallett, Kathy DiCristofaro, Katie Eagan, Mark R. Weaver, Martha Clark, Matt Borges, Melissa Klide Hedden, Michael Gonidakis, Mike Dawson, Molly Shack, Nick Martin, Rhine McLin, Tim Burke, Wes Goodman

Pennsylvania: Charlie Gerow, Christopher Nicholas, Christopher P. Borick, Daniel F. Fee, David P. Sosar, David Thornburgh, Doc Sweitzer, Jaosn Ercole, Larry Ceisler, Marcel Groen, Mark Harris, Nachama Soloveichik, Ray Zaborney, Todd Stephens

Virginia: Abbi Easter, Bob Marshall, Brian Coy, Carolyn Fiddler, Chris LaCivita, Doris Crouse-Mays, Ed Matricardi, Frank Leone, Gaylene Kanoyton, Janet Carver, Jeannemarie Devoltes Davis, Jo Thoburn, Joe Fitzgerald, John Crosgrove, John Findlay, Marc Broklawski, Margo Horner, Michael Farris, Patsy Brown, Pete Snyder, Ray Allen, Sandra Brandt, Steve Stombres, Sue Langley, Susan J. Rowland, Susan Swecker, Tom Davis, Tucker Martin

Wisconsin: Barry Burden, Brandon Scholz, Emily Nehring, Gary B. Hawley, Jason Rae, Jim Camery, John T. Zaphfel, Kevin Barthel, Marian Krumberger, Mary Arnold, Michael Basford, Patrick Guarasci, Rebecca Bonesteel, Robert Hansen, Terri Burl

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.