Gary Johnson, presidential kingmaker?

The Libertarian Party's candidate is pulling 14 percent in a new poll of Ohio, enough to swingthe nation's top bellwether to either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

Trump has opened up a 4-point lead over Clinton in Quinnipiac University's latest poll releasetoday, 41 percent to 37 percent, in a four-way race. Clinton led by 2 in the same poll about amonth ago.

Gary Johnson " whose party identification will not be included on the Ohio ballot " was 10points up on Jill Stein of the Green Party, who received 4 percent in the latest survey.

"Johnson could decide the presidential election in the Buckeye State," said Peter Brownassistant director of the poll, in a release. "He is getting 14 percent from Ohio voters and howthat cohort eventually votes could be critical in this swing state " and in the nation."

With Johnson and Stein combined and the 5 percent who are undecided, nearly one in four likelyOhio voters are opting out of the Clinton-Trump choice, the poll shows.

"That's a big target for Clinton and Trump," Brown said. "If 14 percent of the electorate saysthey're going to vote for Mr. Johnson, that's a lot of people, and the question is whether Mr.Johnson will do as well on Election Day. History suggests he won't."

Johnson and Stein apparently are hurting Clinton more; she trails Trump by only a single pointin a one-on-one matchup.

Trump's lead is built among white men, which he carries 52 percent to 21 percent over Clinton inthe four-way contest. White women favor Trump by 2 point. Whites of both genders without a collegedegree are backing Trump 51 percent to 27 percent.

The Republican nominee is winning among independents by 5 points, 34 percent to 29 percent.

Two other polls released this week also showed Trump up in Ohio. Both the Ipsos poll and aWashington Post-Survey Monkey poll gave him a 3-point margin.

Quinnipiac results Thursday from other swing states:

�Florida " Clinton and Trump tied at 43 percent, Johnson at 8 percent, Stein at 2.

�North Carolina " Clinton ahead of Trump 42 percent to 38 percent, with 15 percent for Johnson.Stein is not on the ballot.

�Pennsylvania " Clinton besting Trump 44 percent to 39 percent with 9 percent for Johnson, 3percent for Stein.

'The obvious takeaway from these numbers is that Donald Trump has staged a comeback from hispost-Democratic convention lows, especially in Pennsylvania and Ohio," Brown said. "Taking a bitlonger view, however, we see a race that appears little changed from where it was as the GOPconvention began in July, and at least in these four key states is very much up for grabs.'

The telephone poll, which called cell phones and land lines of 775 likely Ohio voters fromAugust 29 through Wednesday, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.The party identification of those contacted: independent, 34 percent; Democrat, 31 percent;Republican, 30 percent; other, 4 percent.

drowland@dispatch.com

@darreldrowland

Gary Johnson, presidential kingmaker?

The Libertarian Party's candidate is pulling 14 percent in a new poll of Ohio, enough to swingthe nation's top bellwether to either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

Trump has opened up a 4-point lead over Clinton in Quinnipiac University's latest poll releasetoday, 41 percent to 37 percent, in a four-way race. Clinton led by 2 in the same poll about amonth ago.

Gary Johnson " whose party identification will not be included on the Ohio ballot " was 10points up on Jill Stein of the Green Party, who received 4 percent in the latest survey.

"Johnson could decide the presidential election in the Buckeye State," said Peter Brownassistant director of the poll, in a release. "He is getting 14 percent from Ohio voters and howthat cohort eventually votes could be critical in this swing state " and in the nation."

With Johnson and Stein combined and the 5 percent who are undecided, nearly one in four likelyOhio voters are opting out of the Clinton-Trump choice, the poll shows.

"That's a big target for Clinton and Trump," Brown said. "If 14 percent of the electorate saysthey're going to vote for Mr. Johnson, that's a lot of people, and the question is whether Mr.Johnson will do as well on Election Day. History suggests he won't."

Johnson and Stein apparently are hurting Clinton more; she trails Trump by only a single pointin a one-on-one matchup.

Trump's lead is built among white men, which he carries 52 percent to 21 percent over Clinton inthe four-way contest. White women favor Trump by 2 point. Whites of both genders without a collegedegree are backing Trump 51 percent to 27 percent.

The Republican nominee is winning among independents by 5 points, 34 percent to 29 percent.

Two other polls released this week also showed Trump up in Ohio. Both the Ipsos poll and aWashington Post-Survey Monkey poll gave him a 3-point margin.

Quinnipiac results Thursday from other swing states:

�Florida " Clinton and Trump tied at 43 percent, Johnson at 8 percent, Stein at 2.

�North Carolina " Clinton ahead of Trump 42 percent to 38 percent, with 15 percent for Johnson.Stein is not on the ballot.

�Pennsylvania " Clinton besting Trump 44 percent to 39 percent with 9 percent for Johnson, 3percent for Stein.

'The obvious takeaway from these numbers is that Donald Trump has staged a comeback from hispost-Democratic convention lows, especially in Pennsylvania and Ohio," Brown said. "Taking a bitlonger view, however, we see a race that appears little changed from where it was as the GOPconvention began in July, and at least in these four key states is very much up for grabs.'

The telephone poll, which called cell phones and land lines of 775 likely Ohio voters fromAugust 29 through Wednesday, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.The party identification of those contacted: independent, 34 percent; Democrat, 31 percent;Republican, 30 percent; other, 4 percent.

drowland@dispatch.com

@darreldrowland