BISMARCK, N.D. — Major GOP groups have written him off. His Democratic opponent has more than twice as much cash in the bank, was interviewed for a job in the Trump administration, and has paid more than a half-dozen visits to the White House.

But Rep. Kevin Cramer just might get elected to the Senate, anyway.


Despite the poor electoral environment for conservatives, the political talents of incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp and Cramer’s own flaws, top Republicans routinely rank him as one of their best prospects to seize a Democratic-held Senate seat in 2018. And the reason is simple: North Dakota remains Trump country, and Cramer’s unflinching support for the president might be a more popular play with voters than Heitkamp’s vow to rein him in when she feels she has to.

Though Cramer entered the race only after cajoling from President Donald Trump, the 57-year-old career politician is now plainly relishing the fight against Heitkamp. The first-term Democrat won her Senate race in 2012 by less than 1 percentage point on the strength of her retail campaign skills, independent streak and plainspokenness.

Cramer is trying to turn those assets against her with his own tell-it-like-it-is style.

“She tries to disguise her lack of political conviction as some noble thing,” Cramer told POLITICO, in between a string of events highlighting homegrown fuel and power companies with Energy Secretary Rick Perry last week. He said Heitkamp is having an “identity crisis” when it comes to Trump’s agenda.

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Asked about the Trump tariffs that threaten to wallop North Dakota soybean farmers, Cramer said his foe is “undermining the very strategy our country’s involved in” on trade by criticizing the president’s policy. He went further in a radio interview days later, fretting that Heitkamp had “become an enemy of our country, for crying out loud,” as he cited her recent trip to the Mexican Embassy with North Dakota farmers.

Cramer wasn’t always this gung-ho about taking on Heitkamp, whose warm rapport with Trump won her an interview for a Cabinet job after the 2016 election and — to the annoyance of her now-challenger and his fellow Republicans — multiple invitations to the White House since then. Heitkamp appeared on stage with Trump last year at a North Dakota event to tout the tax bill she ultimately voted against, with the president deeming her a “good woman.”

Of course, Trump has since made clear his preference for Cramer, and the bigger Senate majority that he could help build. Cramer decided against a Senate run earlier this year, then jumped in after Trump called in February and urged him to “start thinking more about your country and less about yourself,” as Cramer put it.

Cramer still portrays the campaign as a question of personal sacrifice. His candidacy “became more obligatory” when Trump leaned on him as the best chance to boost the GOP’s prospects, Cramer said, adding that his family “know[s] there’s nothing about this that’s good for” them.

Two leading GOP groups, the Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity and the free market Club for Growth, have decided not to offer Cramer any help this cycle out of frustration with his record on trade and spending. Heitkamp’s campaign reported $5.2 million on hand at the end of this year’s second quarter, while Cramer reported about $2.4 million in his coffers.

Elected to the House in 2012 after a decade serving on the state’s public utilities commission, Cramer has other vulnerabilities besides his cash deficit. A series of verbal gaffes last year — Cramer said Sean Spicer was unfairly criticized for invoking Adolf Hitler, and remarked about “poorly dressed” Democratic women who wore white pantsuits in an homage to suffragists — caused many in his own party to cringe.

Yet now that he’s all in, party leaders are bullish on Cramer’s prospects. The most recent nonpartisan public poll in the race, released in June, showed Cramer up by 4 percentage points.

In a recent interview, Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, called Heitkamp the “most vulnerable senator” this year and named North Dakota the “No. 1” most closely contested race.

Cramer looked in his element last week glad-handing with executives and employees as he toured energy companies. The veteran state energy regulator showcased his command of the issues during a day alongside Perry and Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), who joined him in donning hard hats with “Coal Guns Freedom” stickers. Cramer hosted Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao the week before Perry and will bring Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross to North Dakota this week for a visit that could turn tense amid farmers’ apprehension about Trump's trade war.

Cramer is walking a fine line when it comes to tariffs that have pushed North Dakota soybean prices down as China, the world’s top purchaser of the crop, buys outside the U.S. in retaliation for Trump's levies. The third-term Republican warned in House testimony last month of his state’s “eminent concern that longstanding markets may be lost forever.”

He’s just as adamant in person against the policy Trump’s chosen, saying that “I think tariffs are basically a tax on your own consumers.” But Cramer, who endorsed Trump in 2016 before many other Republicans, is ready to test his pain tolerance in order to give the president room to negotiate a new deal with China. Instead, he’s trying to deflect to Heitkamp and her trip to the Mexican Embassy.

Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) laughed heartily when asked about his foe’s jab at her for being inconsistently aligned with President Donald Trump. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo

“I think what would help us win these trade deals would be if we backed his strategy rather than undermining it,” he said.

Heitkamp laughed heartily in an interview when asked about Cramer’s jab at her for being inconsistently aligned with Trump. “Congressman Cramer’s myopic dedication to a political party is exactly what we don’t need in this town, and it’s exactly what North Dakota doesn’t expect,” she said in the Capitol last week.

She recoiled at his “enemy of the country” jab, calling it “really extreme language.” After the interview, Heitkamp called a reporter back on the phone to throw another punch at Cramer.

“For me, it’s the difference between being a follower — always doing what someone else tells you to do,” she said, referring to Trump, “and being a leader.”

Even so, farmers who backed Trump in 2016 may share Cramer’s wait-and-see perspective more widely than Heitkamp’s unabashed criticism of the president’s trade policy. North Dakota Farm Bureau President Daryl Lies said that his group has “taken very few to no phone calls from our members saying the renegotiation of these trade agreements is a bad thing.”

“Our members are saying, ‘No, tariffs aren’t perfect, but you’ve got to let an administration use every tool in its toolbox to get us a better deal for decades to come,’” Lies added in an interview.

It’s not just trade that has pushed Cramer and Heitkamp into rhetorical combat. Their state may have a reputation for “North Dakota nice,” but Cramer and Heitkamp’s race is shaping up as “among the nastiest, or maybe the nastiest, in my experience,” said Jack Zaleski, who spent 30 years as the editorial page editor of the state’s Forum newspaper.

Health care is another live issue in the race. Heitkamp last week unveiled an ad that cited “300,000 North Dakotans” with pre-existing conditions, while noting Cramer’s vote to repeal Obamacare. Cramer called that statistic “a scare tactic.”

“Republicans should have covered pre-existing conditions when we were in control, instead of letting Barack Obama do it,” Cramer said, adding that “now we’re committed to getting it done.” He’s still supportive of a Trump administration lawsuit that could dismantle Obamacare, despite the slim prospects for congressional action on any replacement legislation.

The duo also have tangled over energy, a topic in which both are well versed. Cramer has sought to undercut Heitkamp’s work on a proposal Trump signed into law this year expanding tax credits for capturing carbon from coal, and on the deal to end the U.S. oil export ban in 2015, by touting his own involvement on both fronts.

“I hold my record up against his record any day of the week, because if all you do is talk to one side and vote one side, you’ll get nothing done in this town,” Heitkamp responded. “And this is exactly why I’m going to win this race. Because North Dakotans aren’t electing a Republican. They are electing the next U.S. senator from North Dakota.”

Burgess Everett contributed to this report.