As the 2015 season approaches, we’ll be highlighting different players of choice and their fantasy impact. This edition features new Boston Red Sox right-hander Justin Masterson.

In 2013, Justin Masterson ranked 28th on ESPN’s Player Rater, finishing ahead of David Price. In 2014, Masterson ranked 311th, just above Franklin Morales. How could Masterson drop so precipitously in one season? And which Masterson will fantasy owners and Red Sox fans get in 2015? Before we can guess about 2015, let’s look at why Masterson was successful in 2013 and why he failed miserably in 2014.

Throughout 2013, Masterson featured the fifth-best slider in all of baseball according to Fangraphs’ PITCHf/x Pitch Values, more effective than Jose Fernandez’ and Chris Sale’s sliders. Additionally, Masterson’s sinker ranked fifth in the league. The third offering of his three-pitch-repertoire is his four-seam fastball, far from elite, but a serviceable MLB fastball nonetheless. Masterson’s arsenal in 2013 allowed him to pitch to a lowly 17.8% LD% (Line Drive Percent), an elite 9.2% SwStr% (Percentage of Strikes that were swung at and missed), and career best .285 BABIP. Besides a brief stint in Boston during his rookie year, the 9.2% SwStr represents a career high. This can go a long way in explaining his K/9 increasing to 9.09 in 2013. How frequently he generated swing and misses also helped him record such a low LD%. When hitters were making contact, they clearly weren’t making strong contact, and this made a .285 BABIP and 75.4% LOB% seem sustainable.

However, in 2014 Masterson lost 3 mph on his fastball and sinker, and 2 mph off his slider. This dramatically decreased the effectiveness of his pitches. His slider, sinker, and fastball ranked 5th, 5th, and 79th respectively in 2013. In 2014, those same pitches ranked 30th, 30th, and 140th. With less effective pitches, Masterson started getting hit harder, recording a 20.3% LD%. This resulted in a .339 BABIP, and just a 64.8% LOB%. As Masterson’s pitches lost the movement and velocity that made them so lethal in 2013, hitters were more selective, causing Masterson’s BB/9 to skyrocket to 4.83, second only to Ubaldo Jimenez for worst in the league. One possible explanation for Masterson’s issues is the oblique injury that he suffered in late 2013. Perhaps he picked up bad mechanics, leading to the right knee injury that caused him to miss significant time during the 2014 season. Masterson himself said that he felt his knee could be taking “power and consistency” away from his delivery.

After looking back at Masterson’s stellar 2013 campaign and abysmal 2014 season, what is logical to expect as he enters his age-30 season in 2015? There is a definite need to temper expectations if you believe that a now-healthy Masterson should jump right back to 2013 form. This is because Masterson hasn’t shown he can dominate consistently. His ERA was 3.45 in 2013 when he was an All-Star and threw three complete-game shutouts. It was 3.21 in 2011 with Cleveland and 3.16 in his rookie season with the Red Sox (2008). In his other seasons it’s been over 4.50. However, a fully healthy and hopefully mechanically corrected Masterson could lead to a Masterson much closer to the 2013 version, and one that can be a more than capable middle of the rotation starter for the Red Sox.

Bobby Jacowleff is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Bobby, check out his archive.

