When making a mock draft, it is important to focus on team need as well as player value. New analytics displayed in Carnegie Mellon’s Nick Citrone’s article explain which positions hold the highest relative value in each round. Using these analytics, along with assessing team need and player profiling, I have created an ideal 2016 Dallas Cowboys mock draft.

Round 1 Pick #4

Jared Goff/ QB Cal/ 6’4 215 lbs

Team Need:

The Cowboys must find Tony Romo’s future replacement at quarterback. Romo will be 36 years old and recovering from two broken collarbones. Goff would provide them with someone who can win games immediately if Romo is unable to make it through a full season, as well as potentially leading their franchise when Romo retires.

Positive Traits

-Quick release

-High football IQ

-Accurate passer

-Capable arm strength

-Poise in the pocket

-Progresses through reads, does not always go with his first look

-Team leader

-Hard worker, wants to be the best

-Confident

-Not very fast but can extend plays with his feet, has some athleticism

Player Value Based on Analytics

“Quarterbacks seem to bust at a higher rate than other positions taken early in the draft, but this risk is offset by the immense value good QB play adds to an NFL offense.” Analytics show if a team is in need of a franchise quarterback, round one is the round to address it. The Cowboys will unlikely get a shot at one of the draft’s top quarterbacks in the near future, so they must capitalize on the opportunity at hand.

Round 2 Pick #34

Jaylon Smith/ LB Notre Dame/ 6’2 225 lbs

Team Need:

With the re-signing of Rolando McClain, linebacker is not a huge priority for Dallas, which is exactly why this pick actually makes a lot of sense. McClain is back on a 1-year contract, but will unlikely be with Dallas after that. Jaylon Smith suffered a gruesome injury and may not be able to play at all in 2016, but that’s ok. If Sean Lee and Rolando McClain can stay healthy, the Cowboys will be just fine at the linebacker position in 2016. They also have Anthony Hitchens who has proven he can be a quality player in his first two campaigns. Pairing Sean Lee and Jaylon Smith as the future linebackers for Dallas sounds like a pretty good plan in my eyes.

Positive Traits

-Athletically gifted

-Very quick and accelerates as fast as any LB in the draft

-Reads offenses and anticipates plays

-Excellent instincts

-Sound tackler

-Gets off blocks well, can work through many layers of blocks

-High motor

-Team leader

-Can add value in blitz packages as a pass rusher

Player Value Based on Analytics

“Linebackers provide good relative value no matter the round drafted, but the advantage is largest in round two.” Although Smith may not play at all in 2016, one year of sitting out could be worth the next 10 years of outstanding play, which Smith will certainly provide if he can recover successfully from his injury.

Round 3 Pick #67

Alex Collins/ RB Arkansas/ 5’10 215 lbs

Team Need:

The Cowboys do not have an immediate desperate need for a running back but they must find a long-term solution at the position. Darren McFadden did well last year and the club signed Alfred Morris to a team-friendly contract, but the departure of DeMarco Murray is still hurting this team. With Murray having the incredible season he had, the Cowboys went 12-4 and were the most balanced they have been since the 90s. Collins has the potential to fill the void left by Murray a year ago.

Positive Traits

-Elusive

-Quick feet

-Good top-end speed

-Excellent vision

-Gets up the field quickly

-Has the ability to bounce runs outside but knows when to take what is given

-Pass protects well

-Has a nose for the end-zone

Player Value Based on Analytics

“The pattern for linebackers is very similar to the pattern for running backs, except their value holds up better late in the draft.” If a team needs a running back, analytics show their value is at a premium in rounds two and three.

Round 4 Pick #101

Javon Hargrave/ DT South Carolina State/ 6’1 309 lbs

Team Need:

The Cowboys are very thin along the defensive line. Newly signed Cedric Thornton will certainly help, but Rod Marinelli is a big proponent of having a rotation and keeping guys fresh. Hargrave can play either defensive tackle position, giving much-needed depth along Dallas’ front four.

Positive Traits

-Quick first step

-Outstanding production

-Anchors well in the run game

–Generates good push, collapses the pocket well against opposing QBs

-Strong hands

-Adds unexpected value pass rushing

-Works through blocks well

-High motor

Player Value Based on Analytics

Typically, this would be the ideal spot for an offensive lineman, but the Cowboys aren’t in need of one. Right around the 100th pick is when defensive line relative value begins trending upwards. Hargrave would be a great value selection at this spot.

Round 4 Pick #135

Ronald Blair/ DE|DT Appalachian State/ 6’2 285 lbs

Team Need:

With the departure of Greg Hardy and 4-game suspension to Randy Gregory, the Cowboys must add depth at defensive end. Ronald Blair can play both left DE and right DE in the Cowboys’ defensive scheme. He even occasionally kicked inside and played defensive tackle. This pick certainly fills a big need for the Cowboys.

Positive Traits

-Anchors well

-Very strong

-Good technique

-Good hand usage to shed blocks

-Quick burst

-Plays with low pad level, gets good leverage against offensive linemen

-Sets the edge well

-Has good combination of size and speed

-Versatility

Player Value Based on Analytics

This pick is a compensatory 4th round selection so it basically serves as a 5th rounder. “Defensive line talent in the NFL Draft has a lower peak than most positions, but it decays at a slower rate, and in the 5th and 6th rounds defensive lineman provide very strong relative value.” With the Cowboys opting for offense with two of their first three picks, they must continue to bolster their defense.

Round 6 Pick #189

Victor Ochi/ DE|OLB Stony Brook/ 6’1 246 lbs

Team Need:

Yes, the Cowboys can use multiple draft picks on defensive linemen. They are extremely thin at the position at this stage, especially on the edge. They must continue to add as much potential talent to the unit as possible, and Ochi can provide that. The Cowboys have used undersized pass rushers before in their 4-3 scheme, so it would not be a surprise to see them take a chance on a guy like Ochi and let him get after the quarterback.

Positive Traits

-Has strong hands and a good punch

-Converts speed to power

-High effort player

-Uses his hands well

-Good first step quickness

-Plays the run well

-High level of production

-Natural fit as an edge rusher but can potentially stand up and drop in coverage

-Long and athletic

Player Value Based on Analytics

This late in the draft, positional values are a lot closer than earlier rounds, but defensive line still remains a bit higher than linebacker and defensive back. Teams seeking depth at defensive line are better off waiting until day 3.

Round 6 Pick #212

Kevin Peterson/ CB Oklahoma State/ 5’10 180 lbs

Team Need:

The Cowboys re-signed Morris Claiborne in Free Agency, but only for one year. Orlando Scandrick is returning from injury and Brandon Carr is still on the roster, but cornerback depth is still needed. Outside of those three players, the Cowboys have nobody reliable to play cornerback. Adding a player like Peterson could potentially give them another option in an emergency situation.

Positive Traits

-Quick twitch athlete

-Good closing speed

-Good ball skills

-Smooth hips

-Quick feet

-Will support in the run game

-Tackles well for his size

-Physical

-Confident

-Can play man or zone

-Can slide inside and play slot corner in nickel as well

Player Value Based on Analytics

With a pick this late in the draft, it is very hard to hit on a player. “Defensive Backs begin as a low relative value pick but the position plateaus after the fourth round, which makes them very appealing as the draft winds to a close.” This pick is another compensatory pick for the Cowboys, so it comes after the 6th round and essentially serves as a 7throunder.

Round 6 Pick #216

Justin Simmons/ S Boston College/ 6’2 200 lbs

Team Need:

With the team expected to move Byron Jones to safety, the need at the position is smaller, but still relevant. Barry Church is serviceable, but behind him, safety is a weakness for Dallas. J.J. Wilcox has to see the field a lot less than he did in 2015, and hopefully for the Cowboys, Simmons could come in and compete for a spot on the team.

Positive Traits

-Good range

-Prototypical size

-Ball skills

-Instinctive

-Smooth athlete

-Plays well against the run and pass

-Can matchup with opposing WRs in coverage

-High football IQ

-Solid tackler

-Versatility to play safety or corner

Player Value Based on Analytics

Same as above.

Round 6 Pick #217

Tyler Marz/ OT|OG Wisconsin/ 6’7 315 lbs

Team Need:

While the Cowboys are in no need of starters on the offensive line, it would be wise for them to add depth at the position. A successful pick at this stage would be bringing in someone who could be called upon in case of an injury, and serviceably fill the role of a starter. The Cowboys would be thrilled to find someone who could do that this late in the draft. Due to his height, Marz would be best suited to play tackle, which is just fine due to the lack of depth behind starters Tyron Smith and Doug Free.

Positive Traits

-Has good punch against defenders

-Moves pretty well

-Decent footwork

-Strong in the run game

-When matched up cleanly with defenders holds his own

-Prototypical size

-Best fit to play tackle but can potentially kick inside to guard if needed

-Plays with good power

-Comes from a great school for producing offensive lineman.

Player Value Based on Analytics

“Offensive linemen offer superior value in all rounds of the draft.” According to these analytics, a team’s best chance to capitalize on a player at this stage in the draft is to pick an offensive lineman.