ACT election 2020: What would it take for the Canberra Liberals to win?

Updated

In 1972, then Labor leader Gough Whitlam told Australian voters "it's time" — time to move on from 23 consecutive years of conservative government.

Whitlam and Canberra Liberals Leader Alistair Coe share very little in common politically, but Mr Coe hopes a similar movement against an ageing government can propel him to power next year.

By next October's election, ACT Labor will have held power for 19 years and be asking the public for another four.

When asked what his key message is to voters before next year's poll, it is the first thing Mr Coe brings up.

"Well obviously, Canberra does need a change," he said.

It is a powerful argument — many would contend some turnover in government, and a strong contest of ideas, is healthy in a democracy.

And Mr Coe is confident he has a path to victory and can form a majority government.

Unfortunately for the Canberra Liberals, five consecutive election defeats demonstrate winning power in the ACT just isn't that simple.

It's a tough ask, says the only person who's done it before

There is just one person who doesn't belong to the Labor Party who knows what it is like to win an ACT election.

Kate Carnell guided the Liberals to success in 1995 and 1998, taking the largest vote in both and forming minority governments with the support of independents.

There are currently no independents in the Legislative Assembly. Ms Carnell warns that, if that continues, it leaves the Canberra Liberals with a far more difficult path to government.

"You're taking on the Labor Party and the Greens together," she said.

"So without some independents, or at least independents to somewhat balance the Greens, it's a tough ask."

The Liberals have never held majority government in the ACT, and Labor has only done it once.

Ms Carnell argues it is not impossible but it certainly won't be easy.

"You can obviously do it," she said.

"If Canberrans believe the Liberal Party are an alternate government, if they believe they're a centrist government that isn't going to be too right wing, and that they've got the skill sets needed to run the city properly, they're in with a show."

Her biggest concern comes down to politics — and whether the current crop of Canberra Liberals are ideologically aligned with the city they are looking to win over.

A conservative pitch to a progressive town

Ms Carnell — a former conservative politician — paints a clear picture of the territory's political leanings.

"The challenge for Alistair and the team is to remember that the ACT electorate is centre, to centre-left," she said.

The available data tends to bear that out.

The last time ACT voters went to the ballot box, for May's federal election, Labor comfortably retained the two seats of Canberra and Fenner and collected the new seat of Bean, in the city's south.

Nearly six in ten votes cast in the lower house across the territory went to Labor or the Greens.

Measuring how the ACT feels on social policy isn't easy, but if the 2017 same-sex marriage postal survey can provide any guide, it is a progressive jurisdiction.

The ACT recorded the strongest "yes" vote of all states and territories at 74 per cent.

Mr Coe was the only leader of any government or opposition nationwide to say he would vote "no".

Mr Carnell said Mr Coe could not pretend he was not socially conservative, and warned it would appear deeply inauthentic for any politician to change their stripes in an attempt to win votes.

But she said he had to stick to issues like roads, rates, rubbish, schools and hospitals, and steer well clear of more hot-button social issues.

"Be very careful of conservative social policies, because they're not shared by the majority of Canberrans — it's that simple," she said.

For his part, Mr Coe argues the current government is too dismissive of those with views that do not align with its worldview.

"The Labor Party and critics are always trying to label those that they don't agree with," he said.

"I think we need to respect all Canberrans, regardless of whether they agree with you or not."

Is there a path to majority Liberal government in the ACT?

The Canberra Liberals see a very simple, and very achievable, political task ahead of them.

The Legislative Assembly is made up of five electorates with five members each, for a total of 25 seats.

Currently the Liberals hold 11 seats — three in Brindabella, centred on Tuggeranong, and two each in the rest.

They need to add two seats to hold a majority, and Mr Coe has his sights set on Gungahlin and Weston Creek to deliver him those numbers.

"The simplest path is of course holding the three in Brindabella, holding the two in Ginninderra, holding the two in Kurrajong, winning a third in Murrumbidgee and a third in Yerrabi," he said.

"That's the most obvious path, but I think right across Canberra nothing is set."

Some pundits suggest winning a third seat in the Weston Creek-based Murrumbidgee is achievable, but a third in the Gungahlin-based Yerrabi might be difficult.

Yerrabi swung fairly hard to Labor at the 2016 election, where Labor largely ran on delivering stage one of light rail to Gungahlin.

Election analyst with The Tally Room, Ben Raue, said it was easy to see the Liberals making it to 12 seats through Murrumbidgee, but 13 could be out of reach.

"[In Murrumbidgee] they have a good shot at gaining a seat off either Labor or the Greens, and they were helped out in that electorate by the redistribution," he said.

"Beyond that there are two regions in the north of Canberra, either Ginninderra or Yerrabi, where there is also a prospect that you could see Labor lose their third seat.

"But they're a bit further out of reach."

If they did make it to 12 but fall short of 13, the Liberals would be looking to form minority government.

In a situation where Labor held 12 seats, the Liberals held 12 seats, and the Greens held one seat, it is highly likely the Greens would form government with Labor as they have in the past.

The Liberals would need to hope an independent was elected with whom they could negotiate, and Mr Raue said that was the Liberals' best hope.

"You could imagine a strong, popular independent popping up who could win, and that could be the best path to victory for the Liberals," he said.

"Far more likely than them winning a majority in their own right."

Does the ACT's democracy need change?

Ms Carnell sees nothing good about extremely long-running governments.

"Changes of government give new energy, new approaches, new policies, new people," she said.

"And that's a good thing for any democracy.

"So regardless of the politics here, it's been a very long time since Canberrans have seen a really new approach."

As would be expected, it is a criticism Chief Minister Andrew Barr fully rejects — arguing that his is a very different government to that elected in 2001.

"Two-thirds of the members of parliament for the Labor Party were elected only three years ago," he said.

"So it's a renewed team — there is no one in this government who was part of the 2001 government."

And he rejects the assertion the Labor Party has a stranglehold on ACT politics, pointing to the minority governments it is so regularly forced into forming.

"On every election but one in the entire history of the ACT there has been minority government, no party has had a majority" he said.

"So the electoral system clearly provides for a very democratic representation of the views of ACT residents."

Mr Barr is confident 23 years of Labor Government is just what the ACT wants.

Topics: government-and-politics, elections, state-elections, australia, act, canberra-2600

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