Any refusal by Papua New Guinea to ratify the upcoming referendum result could lead to unrest, the Lowy Institute warns

This article is more than 11 months old

This article is more than 11 months old

Less than two months out from Bougainville’s historic referendum, observers are warning of a “major security challenge” and regional instability if Papua New Guinea refuses to recognise a vote for independence.

In a research paper by the Lowy Institute, Australia has been urged to prepare for the aftermath of the vote, a culmination of a 20-year peace process which brought to an end the most intense Pacific conflict since the second world war.

The paper said that while Bougainville itself was not ready for independence, most Bougainvilleans saw no other alternative, and so the focus must be on how the transition would occur and avoiding another serious security crisis.

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Bougainville is currently an autonomous region of Papua New Guinea and home to almost 300,000 people, most of whom are gearing up to vote for either total independence or greater autonomy within PNG.

In 2001 the Bougainville Peace Agreement formally ended a decade-long war and blockade in which an estimated 10,000-15,000 people died, mostly due to preventable diseases and medication shortages. It established the Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG) in 2005, mandated weapons disposal, and set a 2020 deadline for an independence referendum.

The referendum has been pushed back twice this year already, after delays in funding and concerns that more time was needed for voters to register, but is now scheduled for 23 November.

Polling will run until 7 December and around three quarters of Bougainvilleans are expected to vote in favour of independence, the Lowy report, written by the analyst and journalist Ben Bohane, said.

The result must then be ratified by the PNG parliament, but Bohane said it was unclear whether it would do so within an acceptable timeframe, or even at all.

The report noted the previous Peter O’Neill-led government had withheld promised funds from the ABG, but said the new government led by James Marape had been more supportive, releasing funds within its first week of power.

The appointment of the veteran politician Sir Puka Temu as the minister for Bougainville affairs was also welcomed initially, but comments earlier this month that the new country would cost about 300m kina ($130m) a year to run were taken disparagingly and prompted rebuke.

Bohane warned that any refusal by the PNG government to ratify could lead to unrest, while a total rejection of the vote or delay in settlement could lead to another unilateral declaration of independence by Bougainville, which some Pacific countries – and an increasingly Pacific-focused China – may recognise.

“In that scenario, the potential for another serious security crisis in the region is real,” he said.

Eyes are also on Indonesia, which the paper says will be concerned about what regional precedent a successful referendum might set for the long-running independence struggle in West Papua.

Australia, without being seen to influence the outcome, had to prepare for “a substantial deterioration in the security situation, which could potentially require the deployment of another regional peacekeeping force or peace enforcement operation”, the paper said.

Australia is a key protagonist in Bougainville’s history, including as a colonial administrator for 60 years and during the conflict and blockade. It was also a partner in New Zealand-led peace negotiations and peacekeeping operations from 1998.

“Australia has a responsibility – and an interest – to see that peace is maintained, a credible referendum held, and a negotiated outcome achieved to ensure a lasting peace so that Bougainville does not become a source of regional instability again,” the paper said.

Central to the Bougainville conflict was the Panguna copper mine, operated by Rio Tinto-owned Bougainville Copper Ltd (BCL). Landowner protests against environmental damage by the mine and poor economic benefits for locals escalated into violence, and the mine was forced to close in 1989.

In recent years talk of its reopening – either before or after independence – has sparked hostilities, prompting the ABG to enact a moratorium in early 2018.

The ABG, which had a large stake in the mine, had previously maintained reopening Panguna was essential for an independent Bougainville’s economic self-sufficiency.

Bohane found the island’s prospects for self-sufficiency to be unclear, saying the most recent estimates showed that it had reached just 56% of the internally generated revenue required. It said fiscal self-reliance would require substantial support from PNG and other stakeholders, including Australia, which is already the biggest aid partner, providing $50m a year.

Writing in the Interpreter, Annmaree O’Keeffe said on Wednesday the young population – 40% are under the age of 15 – had an enormous health and educational development challenge ahead of itself.

O’Keeffe noted an independent Bougainville would begin with one hospital, 11 health centres, and a health expenditure of 1% of its budget. This compared to 3.5% of a much larger budget in Vanuatu, and 8% in the Solomon Islands, which has a budget 10 times larger.

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“These comparisons between two comparative Melanesian countries show that for a newly independent Bougainville to sustain its independent future, it would need to dedicate much more of its budget to building the human capacity and associated infrastructure,” she said.

“At the same time, it would need in its budget new items such as defence, immigration, and all the other administrative paraphernalia of sovereign countries.”

O’Keeffe assessed Bougainville would need two to three times its current budget, and the scale of the challenge – including realising the potential of its natural resources – couldn’t be underestimated.

Writs for the referendum were formally issued to the Bougainville Referendum Commission at the end of last month, officially declaring the polling date and closing the rolls. The commission said more than 200,000 people had enrolled to vote.

“You must take ownership and make the right choice and be ready to accept the outcome of your decision as well,” said the ABG president, chief John Momis, at a formal ceremony.

The chair of the commission, former Irish prime minister Bertie Ahern, said the world was watching, and he hoped it would be a joyful experience.

“I congratulate the two governments and the people of Bougainville for reaching this historic point – one more step in an historic and internationally regarded peace process.”