In the end, there were no doubters. Despite some markedly mixed signals from the economy in recent months, the nine members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) voted unanimously to raise interest rates by a quarter point to 0.75%. The decision to lift official borrowing costs above 0.5% for the first time in almost a decade came as no surprise, but the lack of any dissenting voices certainly did.

The Bank’s latest quarterly health check on the economy is almost identical to the one it produced in May. Back then, the MPC had been gearing up for a rate rise but put the move on hold because it wanted to make sure that the weakness of the data for the first three months of 2018 reflected only temporary weather-related effects linked to the “beast from the east” storm.

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The MPC said growth would bounce back to 0.4% in the second quarter and there are signs that it has. Hence, the UK is getting the rate rise scheduled for May with a three-month delay.

Make no mistake, this was a big moment. Interest rates have been on an emergency setting for well over nine years but are now heading back to what the Bank considers to be a new normal range of 2-3%. But the comment from Mark Carney, the Bank’s governor, that policy needed to “walk not run” was telling. It will be a long time before borrowing costs hit 2% and the chances of another hike this side of Brexit are slim.

The decision gives the Bank a bit more scope to cut rates in the event that Britain leaves the EU without a deal but that was not the real reason for the MPC’s decision.

Rates are going up because the committee thinks the fall in unemployment to its lowest level since 1975 is leading to upward pressure on wages. The MPC points to an edging up of earnings growth from post-crisis levels. A survey conducted by its regional agents showed that two-thirds of firms questioned reported having difficulty recruiting and retaining skilled staff and 40% said it was hard to get staff for any positions.

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This makes the MPC uneasy. It thinks unemployment cannot fall below 4.25% without wage inflation, and its forecast is for the jobless rate to dip below 4% next year. If the economy performs in the way the Bank expects, further increases in interest rates would be appropriate, it said.

That said, Threadneedle Street has been overestimating wage inflation for years, and the former MPC member and labour market expert David Blanchflower says it is still doing so. Recent official data has shown growth in total pay falling not rising; annual growth in total earnings has come down from 3.1% in December to 2.5% in May, regular pay – which excludes bonuses – has edged down from 2.7% to 2.6%, and weekly earnings adjusted for inflation were unchanged from their £489 level a year later.

It’s hard to escape the conclusion that rates are going up because the Bank feared for its credibility if they were again left unchanged. Continually talking tough and doing nothing is a risky strategy.

But so is raising rates when the case for doing so is weak. The economy, despite bouncing back in the second quarter, is far from booming. Retail sales were soft in June, the housing market is dead and inflation is coming back toward its 2% target more quickly than the Bank expected.

Tellingly, the response from business was negative. The Institute of Directors said the Bank had “jumped the gun”, while the British Chambers of Commerce said the move was ill-judged and threatened to undermine confidence at a time of significant political and economic uncertainty. It is a tough trading environment out there, as demonstrated by House of Fraser teetering on the brink of collapse and Countrywide, the UK’s biggest estate agency chain, launching a £140m fundraising bid. Sprinkle in the risk of a global trade war and a crucial few months ahead for the Brexit talks and it is obvious why business groups were underwhelmed by the Bank’s decision.

In such circumstances, it is strange, even a little troubling, that not one MPC member opposed a rate hike, which helps explain why Carney was asked at his press conference whether the MPC was guilty of groupthink. The inflation report makes it sound as if higher interest rates are a no-brainer. They’re a lot riskier than the Bank appears to think.

