The Minnesota Wild have desperately been lacking that game-breaking forward who can create offense out of nowhere. Whether or not that player is in the system has been a concern with the Wild having traded away many top picks over recent seasons (and sometimes using picks in the first three rounds to go for guys who won’t fulfill that role).

With that in mind we can go through Minnesota Wild prospects using NHL equivalency (NHLe), a stat created by Gabriel Desjardins, to compare prospects across leagues. While it’s not a perfect stat, it attempts to create an equivalency based on historical precedent, showing how the production in another league typically translates into NHL production over an 82-game season.

As I did earlier in the season when I went through Wild prospects NHLe, I’m including defensemen outside of the AHL. This stat tends to be less telling for defenseman, since it’s really just a measure of offensive output.

I’m also including a few of the Iowa Wild’s youngest forwards for comparison.

League Team Games Played Goals Assists NHLe Kirill Kaprizov KHL Metallurg Novokuznetsk 53 11 16 33.4188679245283 Grayson Downing AHL Iowa Wild 36 15 16 33.1872222222222 Zack Mitchell AHL Iowa Wild 54 19 13 22.8385185185185 Chase Lang WHL Vancouver Giants 63 27 35 21.7885714285714 Christoph Bertschy AHL Iowa Wild 51 9 19 21.1592156862745 Joel Eriksson Ek SHL Farjestad BK 37 9 6 19.9459459459459 Alex Tuch NCAA / Hockey East Boston College 31 12 14 19.9445161290323 Louis Nanne NCAA / ECAC RPI 34 6 15 19.7523529411765 Reid Duke WHL Brandon Wheat Kings 55 27 22 19.7247272727273 Zac Dalpe AHL Iowa Wild 4 2 0 19.27 Louis Belpedio NCAA / NCHC Miami (OH) University 28 3 13 19.2114285714286 Gustav Bouraman OHL Sault Ste Marie Greyhounds 56 4 30 15.9314285714286 Mario Lucia NCAA / Hockey East Notre Dame 32 10 11 15.605625 Raphael Bussieres AHL Iowa Wild 5 0 2 15.416 Tyler Graovac AHL Iowa Wild 25 3 7 15.416 Jordan Greenway NCAA / Hockey East Boston University 30 5 14 15.0606666666667 Adam Gilmour NCAA / Hockey East Boston College 32 11 8 14.119375 Carson Soucy NCAA / NCHC University of Minnesota-Duluth 28 1 8 10.8064285714286 Nolan De Jong NCAA / Big Ten Michigan 28 0 10 10.5428571428571 Pavel Jenys OHL Niagara Ice Dogs 53 7 14 10.3969811320755 Tanner Faith WHL Moose Jaw Warriors 59 3 21 9.00610169491526 Jared Knight AHL Iowa Wild 33 1 6 8.17515151515152 John Draeger NCAA / Big Ten Michigan State 32 1 7 7.38 Hunter Warner WHL Prince Albert Raiders 60 2 16 6.642 Brett Bulmer AHL Iowa Wild 41 2 5 6.58 Brady Brassart AHL Iowa Wild 30 3 2 6.42333333333333 Nicholas Boka NCAA / Big Ten Michigan 28 0 6 6.32571428571429 Nick Seeler NCAA / Big Ten University of Minnesota 28 0 6 6.32571428571429 Kurtis Gabriel AHL Iowa Wild 46 5 2 5.86478260869565 Avery Peterson NCAA / NCHC University of Nebraska-Omaha 14 0 1 2.40142857142857 Pontus Sjalin SHL Luleå HF 25 0 0 0

Top Minnesota Wild Prospects

Kirill Kaprizov continues to impress in the KHL. The 18-year-old 2015 5th round pick has the highest NHLe of all Wild prospects and put up some impressive numbers during the KHL’s regular season. He scored the second most points ever by a U19 player in the KHL. His 27 points puts him ahead of U19 seasons by Vladimir Tarasenko, Artemi Panarin, Anton Slepyshev, Marko Dano and many others.

Outside of the AHL, Chase Lang is the next best mark. He’s had a strong season with the Vancouver Giants, where he was traded after just 14 games with the Calgary Hitmen. With 62 points he’s outpaced the 56 he posted last year, averaging a point per game.

A 2014 6th round pick, Lang is another pleasant surprise in the system where some top picks haven’t panned out in recent years. Kurtis Gabriel, Raphael Bussieres, Zack Phillips, Brett Bulmer, Johan Larsson, Nick Leddy and Tyler Cuma are all 1st and 2nd round picks since 2008 that have not transitioned well to the pro ranks or have been traded away.

The good news for the Wild in terms of high draft picks is that their most recent first round picks, Joel Eriksson Ek (2015) and Alex Tuch (2014), come in with the next two non-AHL slots. Eriksson Ek has put together a strong season playing in Sweden’s top professional league, the SHL. He’s had flashes of high-level offensive IQ both in the SHL and during the World Junior Championship. That includes a goal this week that deserved a couple of replays.

Alex Tuch had a tough start to the season with Boston College and found himself left off of the Team USA World Junior Championship roster after having been a top line player there in last year’s tournament. He’s bounced back nicely though with 26 points in 31 games. The BC sophomore is only two points shy of his freshman season point total, put up in six more games.

Among this season’s production was a big overtime game-winner in the Beanpot championship where he wired one past Boston University’s Sean Maguire.



Other Notes

One name fans will be curious about is Mario Lucia, who is in his final season with Notre Dame. He put up 21 goals last year and is down to just 10 this season, though his assist rate is up a little. The Notre Dame alternate captain has seen a bit of a role change this season on a strong, deep team. It’ll be interesting to see how he’s able to transition to the pro ranks. The 2011 2nd round pick looks like he could transition well both because of his style and his 6-foot-3, 205 pound frame.

Another name that’s disappointingly low is Pavel Jenys. The 6-foot-3 Czech center almost transitioned to the AHL to start the year after grabbing eight games with Iowa last season at age 18. In 63 games with the OHL’s Sudbury Wolves last season — the OHL’s 2014-15 Buffalo Sabres — he put up 15 goals and 45 points. This season, his production has dipped. He scored just four goals and 12 points through 24 games with Sudbury before being dealt to the Niagara IceDogs, a team that has a chance of making a run. However, even on a much better team, his production continued to lag. He’s certainly not the top dog there with a very good roster, but his three goals and nine points in 30 games looks paltry.

Avery Peterson had a very nice season last year, but he left Omaha for personal reasons this season. He’ll be transferring to the University of Minnesota Duluth next season in order to be closer to a sick family member.

Bussieres has spent most of his season in the ECHL where he has 11 goals and 22 points through 32 games for the Quad City Mallards.

Is He There?

Is there that game-breaker in the group? Probably not. Kaprizov’s development is promising, but it’s too early to say he’s the next Tarasenko. There isn’t a knock-out prospect in the group, but Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek and Tuch look like they could be productive, important members of the team down the road.

Beyond that trio, Lang, Lucia and Reid Duke all hold a lot of promise as well. They maybe aren’t as high-end of prospects, but there’s reason to be hopeful about their development.

NHLe numbers are indebted to Desjardins, Scott Reynolds and Rob Vollman.