Concern about immigration will return with a vengeance if Brexit does not deliver

A dangerous received wisdom is developing in the Conservative Party. To appeal to younger and more liberal voters, the thinking goes, the Tories need to become more relaxed about mass immigration.

Part of the logic for this argument is the startling discovery that public opinion has become more positive about immigration since the Brexit referendum: overall, more people say they feel better about it than two years ago. But the same research shows that a large majority of voters – 60 per cent – still want the number of people coming to Britain reduced.

As Bobby Duffy, the pollster from Ipsos MORI, explains, the shift in opinion is caused by Brexit itself. Liberal remainers, who were always positive about immigration, are now more vehement in their support, while some immigration sceptics are reassured by the referendum result and assume greater immigration control is coming. To interpret this change as a green light for continued mass immigration would therefore be a mistake.

As Ipsos MORI point out, historical studies show “there are always 60+ per cent who want immigration reduced”. And support for reduced and controlled immigration is shared across the whole country. It is true that younger voters have relatively more liberal views than older people, but even among 18 to 24-year-olds, more people believe immigration is too high than think it should continue at its current rate or increase further. Clear majorities of people want immigration reduced not just in Wales, the Midlands and the north of England but in London and Scotland, too.

As ministers contemplate a new immigration system for Britain after Brexit – when we will be able to control the number of people who come here from Europe – they must remember these facts. But as well as public opinion, ministers must also consider the actual effects of immigration.