It’s been a Lancashire lark this season for the Clarets of Burnley. Picked by just about everyone (myself most definitely included) to be relegated for the third time in three Premier League attempts, Sean Dyche’s men reached mid-table security weeks ago, and are maybe three-five points short of safety with 10 games still to play. They’ve only been in the bottom three once, after the first week of the season. By the half-way point they were in 11th, and have oscillated comfortably between ninth and 13th since, without a relegation care in the world. And, as everyone knows, they’ve done it with a home/away point split that is poised to break every record in the book. Twenty-nine points at home, two away.

This split – a chasm, really – is bizarre enough, but what makes it odder is that Burnley are by no means the sort of team you’d expect to get such a pattern of results. They play much the same football at Turf Moor as elsewhere: 4-4-2, frequent pressing, lots of long ball. When they were last up, in 2014/15, the same tactics under the same manager delivered only a small split home and away, 19 points to 14.

But whether home or away, tactics are themselves a fascinating part of the Burnley story. Two years ago Dyche stuck to his 4-4-2 guns virtually the entire season, and went down under charges he was too inflexible. This season started with similar complaints, but in the fifth game of the season it appeared he’d made a breakthrough. The previous week at Leicester, he had played 4-5-1 with André Gray alone up top – not exactly the intuitive choice – and got smashed in the second half. But now he replaced Gray with target man Sam Vokes, and the Clarets completely outplayed Watford at Turf Moor.

The new set-up took full advantage of one of the key summer signings, Steven Defour. The most cultured footballer in the side, his technique and passing skills are perfectly built for a three-man central midfield. With Johann Berg Gudmundsson performing similarly on the right wing, it appeared Burnley were set for the foreseeable future. The 4-5-1 was again triumphant against Everton at home. But it was only after Dyche threw on a second striker that wins were achieved against Crystal Palace and Bournemouth, at which point he decided 4-4-2, where he had always been most comfortable, was the real home sweet home.

The first key to 4-4-2 redux has been the emergence of André Gray. A killer in the Championship (23 goals in 41 appearances last season), he was slow to find his feet at a higher level, with only one goal by the middle of December. But when Dyche went back to 4-4-2, and Gray found himself once again paired with a natural target man, he suddenly became a Premier League striker. Not only has he found his scoring range (seven goals since, which includes 2/2 penalties), but he’s become crucial to Burnley’s system.

His pace stretches defences, allowing the midfield to find more space in attacking areas. In the first 15 games of the season, Burnley averaged exactly one goal per game; since the return of 4-4-2, it’s been 1.23. That may not sound like much, but it averages out to about nine goals for a whole season. In fact, since the return of 4-4-2, the Clarets have scored in every match except the first…even those pesky matches away.

The second key in the 4-4-2 has been the change of Ashley Barnes for Sam Vokes as Gray’s partner. The contrast tells you something about Dyche’s priorities. Vokes is better in the air, better with the ball at his feet, and the better passer to boot, but Barnes has the better movement and is by far the more aggressive. His goals and key passes are only slightly above Vokes’, and Vokes actually has more assists. But Barnes causes more havoc in the defence, drawing and committing many more fouls, and opening up more space for other attackers. The results speak for themselves.

And since we’re talking attack, perhaps the biggest surprise of Burnley’s season has been the improvement in goalscoring. Last time they were up, they were the lowest scorers in the division. But right now they’re headed for an amazing +14 from last time. There’s an asterisk of sorts: from open play, they’re only one goal ahead of 2014/15. The rest have come from set-pieces and penalties. But penalties and set-pieces are created by more effective attacking play.

In the early months, most observers assumed that defence would be the key to their survival. But in fact they’re on pace to allow more goals than when they went down two years ago. Still, they’re a solid 12th in that category, and the return to 4-4-2 has also made them more miserly (from 1.67 goals/game to 1.31). Before the switch, they had lost five matches by more than one goal; since then, all their losses have been by one goal only.

Defensively, Burnley do best when pressing, then dropping back quickly, restricting opponents to relatively poor quality shots. The back four has been as stable as you could wish: from right to left, Matthew Lowton, Michael Keane, Ben Mee and Stephen Ward have started 25 of their 28 games together. Lowton at right-back has been the most interesting study. Surplus to requirements at Aston Villa before their relegation season, he’s shown occasional glimpses of real quality both in attack and defence. He was Burnley’s man of the match last Sunday against Liverpool. For his part, Ward has been consistent throughout.

In the centre, Keane is the main man, and an inevitable target for clubs higher up the table. He’s disciplined, strong in the air, and an effective passer. At 24, he’s not a novice anymore, and with his contract running out at the end of next year, it’s questionable whether Burnley can keep him. Mee got off to a slow start, and seemed a likely candidate for replacement in the January window. But although not quite at Keane’s level, lately he’s been perfectly adequate.

Much more than perfectly adequate has been Tom Heaton, now a regular part of the England squad. In a recent shot-stopping ranking, based on difficulty of shots faced, he was ahead of Thibaut Courtois, David De Gea and Ben Foster, and just behind Hugo Lloris. He’s under contract until 2020, and let’s hope he stays.

Midfield has seen the most rotation. Defour dropped out of the set-up when Dyche went back to 4-4-2, and has been out injured quite a bit lately. Gudmundsson has been injured recently as well. Their replacements have been less creative, more athletic players such as Scott Arfield and George Boyd. Club mainstay Dean Marney was lost for the season at the end of January. Jeff Hendrick, the record summer signing from Derby, has been decent linking midfield with attack, although perhaps not as good as his fee.

Which brings us to Burnley’s two winter signings, one for free and one for a lot more, Joey Barton and Robbie Brady. Barton has been an important (I was going to say “nice”, but that wouldn’t fit) addition in the middle, providing leadership (I was going to say “stability”, but that wouldn’t fit either) and skill. Brady, who replaced Hendrick as the club’s most expensive signing, is a very different kind of player, good in attack but unreliable in defence, and Dyche doesn’t quite seem to trust him fully. He delivered that memorable free kick against Chelsea, but has yet to be allowed 90 minutes, and at Anfield it was Arfield in the starting XI instead. Where Brady fits in for the rest of the season will be worth watching.

If you’re wondering about expected goals and the like, Burnley have been over-performing a little in attack and a little in defence; overall they’re fifth-best in the league in exceeding their expected goal difference. That suggests next season might not go so smoothly. The board has a conservative (and very wise) spending policy, so long term the Clarets are perhaps more likely to be a yo-yo club than a fixture in the Premier League.

But this season has been an unqualified success, made only more remarkable by the home/away madness. If you’re wondering about the records, they’re within reach of two Premier League marks. One is fewest away points overall: at the moment they have two, and the famous 2007/08 Derby County side finished with only three. The second is lowest percentage of points gained away: right now they’re at a minuscule 6.5%, with the current record at 13.3%, held by none other than Burnley 2009/10.

I don’t think they’re going to pull it off, though. Their remaining away matches are Sunderland, Middlesbrough, Everton, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth. Surely points are to be had there, particularly with their recent improvement. But this is Burnley, a team that has defied the odds all year. It’d be fitting indeed to set a record for away futility, yet survive easily through home form. If they manage it, let’s all chip in for an open-top parade around Turf Moor – in a David Fishwick minibus, of course.

Peter Goldstein