RRH Elections March 2020 Gubernatorial Rankings

It is time for this month’s refresh of our Gubernatorial Rankings. Here is the map for this month:

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R DE (Carney)

WA (Inslee) NJ ’21 (Murphy)

NC (Cooper)

VA ’21 (OPEN) MT (OPEN) VT (Scott)

WV (Justice) MO (Parson)

NH (Sununu) IN (Holcomb)

ND (Burgum)

UT (OPEN)

RRH Elections has made the following two changes to our 2020 Gubernatorial Ratings since our last update in January, one in favor of Republicans:

Indiana Safe R from Likely R

and one in favor of Democrats:

Vermont Lean R from Likely R

We are still projecting a net shift in gubernatorial seats of between R+0 and R+1 in 2020.

Additionally, we are making the following 4 changes to our 2020 Row Officer Ratings today.

NC-Aud Safe D from Lean D || OR-Treas Likely D from Safe D || WA-LG Likely D from Safe D|| WV-Agri Likely R from Safe R

We have also placed the Spring 2021 race for WI-Supt on the board at Tossup.

Here is our Row Officer Big Board:

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R DE-Ins (Navarro)

DE-LG (Hall-Long)

NC-Aud (Wood)

OR-AG (Rosenblum)

VT-AG (Donovan)

VT-Aud (Hoffer)

VT-LG (OPEN)

VT-SoS (Condos)

VT-Treas (Pearce)

WA-AG (Ferguson)

WA-Aud (McCarthy)

WA-Ins (Kriedler)

WA-Lands (Franz)

WA-Supt (Reykdal)* NC-SoS (Marshall)

OR-Treas (Read)

PA-AG (Shapiro)

PA-Treas (Torsella)

WA-LG (OPEN) NC-AG (Stein)

OR-SoS (OPEN) NC-Ins (Causey)

NC-Lab (OPEN)

NC-LG (OPEN)

NC-Supt (OPEN)

PA-Aud (OPEN)

WA-SoS (Wyman)

WA-Treas (Davidson)

WI-Supt (OPEN)*

WV-Treas (Perdue) IN-AG (Hill)

MT-AG (OPEN)

MT-Aud (OPEN)

MT-SoS (OPEN)

NC-Treas (Folwell)

WV-SoS (Warner) MO-AG (Schmitt)

MO-LG (Kehoe)

MO-Treas (Fitzpatrick)

MT-Supt (Arntzen)

NC-Agri (Troxler)

WV-Agri (Leonhardt)

WV-AG (Morrisey) MO-SoS (Ashcroft)

ND-Aud (Gallion)

ND-Ins (Godfread)

ND-Supt (Baesler)*

ND-Treas (OPEN)

UT-AG (Reyes)

UT-Aud (Dougall)

UT-Treas (Damschen)

WV-Aud (McCuskey)

Flip over for full narratives!

Tossups:

1. Montana Tossup (1)

The most competitive gubernatorial race this year is in Big Sky country, where incumbent Steve Bullock (D) is termed-out, leaving Democrats with a quandary on how to hold the governorship in the red state. The biggest Dem name in the race is LG Mike Cooney (D), a low-key establishment pol who has bounced around low-level offices for decades, most notably losing a gubernatorial primary by a wide margin back in 2000. He faces a primary challenge from consultant and Heir Force Col. Whitney Williams (D), daughter of 90s-era ex-Rep. Pat (D), who as fundraised well for her bid. Cooney is probably a modest favorite in the primary, but an upset is possible. Republicans look likely to have a seriously contested primary as well between three major candidates. The biggest name in the race and primary favorite is one of Republicans’ biggest fallen stars, Rep. and 2016 nominee Greg Gianforte (R). Gianforte was previously considered a strong candidate, but his general election appeal in a high-profile race is questionable after his “body-slam” of a reporter in 2017. His name recognition and personal cash has allowed him to lead primary polls by a large margin, but he could be a weak general election contender. Establishment Republicans in the state are more enthusiastic about the candidacy of AG Tim Fox (R), who has been preparing a run for this race since his 2016 re-election and has experience winning seriously-contested statewide races. However, Fox does not have Gianforte’s wealth or visibility, and Gianforte looks likely to be able to get to his right ideologically as well. A third wheel in the primary is State Sen. Al Olszewski (R), who is lesser-known but could sneak up the middle if Gianforte and Fox nuke each other. With a potentially problematic contender in the race on the GOP side in Gianforte and credible Dems running, the race belongs in the Tossup category. However, Montana is still a red state and the Democratic contenders do not seem exceptionally strong, so Republicans still have a good chance to snap Montana Dems’ 16-year hold on the Governor’s Mansion.

Leans Toward Incumbent Party:

2. North Carolina Lean D (2)

Incumbent Roy Cooper’s (D) most defining characteristic as a pol is his extremely cautious nature. North Carolina’s Governor is among the nation’s weaker chief executives to begin with, and Cooper’s position was rendered all-but-impotent for the first two years of his term by veto-proof GOP supermajorities in the legislature. Since Democrats broke the supermajority in the 2018 wave, Cooper has become marginally more assertive, but is still known for a relatively consensus-seeking style. That posture has largely left Cooper’s term bereft of major accomplishments, but also made him fairly popular. LG Dan Forest (R) is challenging Cooper after two terms in the #2 spot. Forest is has been known in his eight years in office as an antiestablishment-leaning staunch social conservative. That posture has made him something of a lightning rod for Democrats, and he prevailed in close and contentious elections for the LG post in both 2012 and 2016. Though his office has little power, he has worked closely with legislative leadership on cultural conservative priorities, including school choice and campus free speech bills. Forest has fundraised well, and has the lions’ share of institutional support. The general election will likely be competitive in the purple state. Cooper is popular, but not overwhelmingly so, and Forest is a credible candidate with two hard-fought statewide victories under his belt. Trump is also probably more likely than not to carry the state. However, Cooper starts with a large Democratic base to build on, and his popularity could provide him the requisite crossover support. Thus, Cooper seems a moderate favorite in a competitive general election race. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as Lean D.

3. West Virginia Lean R (3)

Gov. Jim Justice (R) is embarking on his first run as a Republican after switching from D to R in 2017. Justice’s approvals are mediocre, around the break-even mark, due to a number of minor scandals. Justice has been hit for a number of investigations in his business empire, and is also accused of being an absentee Governor, spending little time in the capital and most of his time at home two hours away working on his private businesses. Furthermore, Justice pursued a liberal agenda for his first few months in office as a Dem before pivoting to the right after his party switch, a move that has left him with few loyalists on either side. As such, he may face a GOP primary fight, though only two relatively little-known Republicans, libertarian-leaning ex-State Rep. Mike Folk (R) and Justice’s own former commerce secretary Woody Thrasher (R), have jumped into the race. With his good rapport with Trump, Justice should be favored for renomination, but an upset is possible due to the significant remaining mistrust with him in the GOP. Democrats have seen an opening with Justice’s mediocre popularity in a state that, despite its conservatism, has seen only one GOP win out of the last 9 gubernatorial elections (and that was back in 1996), though the WV Dem bench is fairly mediocre but not terrible. Three “B” to “C” list candidates are in the primary, lobbyist Stephen Smith (D), who has strong backing from the teachers’ union, along with State Sen. Ron Stollings (D) and Kanawha County Commissioner Ben Salango (D). For now, Salango looks like a slight favorite in the primary. In spite of his mediocre approvals and liabilities, Justice does have major assets (in multiple senses of the term). As a billionaire and the state’s single richest man, he can outspend literally any rival many times over. Justice’s Trump-esque biography and big personality have also played very well in the Trump-loving and conservative state. Thus, he probably starts as a moderate favorite in both the primary and general. But the warning signs remain very much there for Justice, and thus, in spite of the lean of the state, we mark Republicans as only moderately strong favorites to hold this seat.

4. Vermont Leans R (4)

Moderate Gov. Phil Scott (R) easily won a second term in 2018 and has continued to boast strong approval ratings, though he has had some issues on his right flank with his openness to gun control in one of America’s most pro-gun states. Scott seems likely to seek a third term in 2020 and should be the favorite to get it. Democrats somewhat surprisingly recruited a top-tier candidate in LG David Zuckerman (P/D) for the race. Zuckerman, who is known as left-wing even by Vermont standards, is well-known and has a considerable base, but has been seen as polarizing even in the left-wing state. He faces primary opposition from the more mainstream liberal former state Education Secretary Rebecca Holcombe (D), who served under Scott’s predecessor Peter Shumlin (D) and was retained by Scott himself before the two had a falling-out. Scott remains very popular, and has led both Zuckerman and Holcombe by large margins in early polls of the race. However, with terrain as tough as Vermont is for Republicans, he has little room for error, and Zuckerman’s entry means Democrats are likely to consider giving him a strong challenge as a priority. But for now, it looks like Scott’s high approval ratings will be enough to defy the lean ofthe state once again. Thus, though the race slips over the line to the more competitive Lean R category, we continue to mark Scott as a moderately strong favorite to hold the seat.

Likely To Stay with Incumbent Party:

5. New Hampshire Likely R (5)

In spite of approval ratings among the strongest of any Governor nationwide, Gov. Chris Sununu (R) won by a somewhat narrower-than-expected margin in 2018, as a late surge of enthusiasm for his opponent and New Hampshire’s propensity to swing wildly with waves combined for a Democratic surge in the state. However, as he looks to the 2020 race, Sununu still seems in strong position. Democrats have shown interest in the race, and two credible Dems, State Sen. Dan Feltes (D) and Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky (D), are in the race. Both have collected a significant amount of establishment support. Democrats have credible candidates, but Sununu still ranks among the nation’s most popular Governors, and it is quite hard to oust an incumbent Governor with high approval ratings. Thus, we mark Sununu as a strong but not prohibitive favorite for a third term.

6. Missouri Likely R (6)

Gov. Mike Parson (R) continues to notch solid approval ratings thanks to a low-key style that compares well to his scandal-plagued predecessor Eric Greitens (R). Parson was a backbench establishment conservative in the legislature and seen as an insider and back-slapper, and seems to have largely followed that same course as Governor. Parson’s term has been redefined by his support of a new stringent abortion law, which has drawn criticism from Democrats. His goodwill with social conservatives and establishment rapport seem likely to insulate him from a strong primary challenge in 2020; so far Parson’s only primary challenger of note is little-known State Rep. Jim Neely (R), who seems unlikely to present a serious threat to the Governor. However, Democrats will likely put up a strong challenge in the general election. The likely Dem nominee is State Auditor Nicole Galloway (D), who is the state party’s biggest name and only statewide officeholder after a solid win in 2018 over a subpar opponent. Galloway seems likely to downplay the abortion law in the fairly staunchly pro-life state, though it will likely be a motivating force for her donor and activist base. For the general electorate, Galloway could potentially have a stronger line of attack by going after Parson’s insidery and good-old-boy nature. Galloway is a credible opponent, but with solid approval ratings so far and the lean of the state on his side (which has only become more strongly Republican in recent years), Parson remains a substantial favorite for a full term.

Safe for Incumbent Party:

7. Indiana Safe R (7)

Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) has registered solid approval ratings in his term, with a reputation for low-key competence, and benefits from a state that has shifted from pink to deep red over the last decade. Thus, he seems likely to be a strong favorite for a second term. Democrats have a “C” list nominee in former appointed state Health Commissioner Woody Myers (D), who lost a congressional primary in the 2000s. Myers is little-known statewide, but could be credible enough to run a serious campaign. But with Holcomb’s strong approval ratings and the increasingly solid red lean of the state on his side, the incumbent looks like a very solid favorite for re-election. Without a particularly strong Democrat in the race, we are pushing the race into the Safe R category.

8. Washington Safe D (8)

Gov. Jay Inslee (D) has returned to this race to seek a third term after his vanity Presidential bid failed to gain traction. Inslee has posted solid, though not overwhelming, popularity, and has a good rapport with the Democratic base. Thus, several Democrats who had been considering bids have fallen in line behind his bid for a third term, and he seems unlikely to face a serious intraparty challenge. Washington has the nation’s longest streak of Democratic governors at 36 years come 2020, and the blue lean of the state means the streak is unlikely to snap. Republicans have three low “B” to “C” list challengers in the race against Inslee, State Sen. Phil Fortunato (R), ex-Bothell Mayor Joshua Freed (R), small-town police chief Loren Culp (R), and Tim Eyman (R), a professional promoter of conservative initiatives and provacateur. For now none of the Republicans seem likely to pose a particularly strong threat to Inslee, and as a result, we mark Dems as prohibitive favorites to hold the seat.

9. Utah Safe R (9)

Gov. Gary Herbert (R) will not seek a third full term in 2020, and that decision is opening up the floodgates for Republicans eager to succeed him in the state’s first open-seat gubernatorial race since 1992. LG Spencer Cox (R) is looking like the early front-runner; he notably has the popular Herbert’s endorsement. Cox’s best-known rival looks likely to be Herbert’s predecessor, ex-Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. (R), who has returned to electoral politics after stints as ambassadors under Obama and Trump. Three other candidates are in the race on the GOP side, ex-UTGOP chair Thomas Wright (R), Salt Lake County commissioner Aimee Winder-Newton (R), and investor Jeff Burningham (R), who could have self-funding ability. Democrats are likely to nominate little-known law professor Christopher Peterson (D). Utah is a deep-red state, but has been anti-Trump, which could give Dems a slight opening if the GOP nominee makes an unforced error. However, for now the lean of the state and lack of a well-known Democratic candidate mean we see Republicans as very strong favorites to hold the open seat.

10. Delaware Safe D (10)

Gov. John Carney (D) has posted strong approval ratings and looks very unlikely to draw a serious challenger in his blue state. Though there have been some rumors of ex-AG Matt Denn (D) considering a primary bid against Carney, he has not made concrete moves toward the race, and Carney looks likely to be a strong favorite for renomination. As for the general, Republicans have not even mounted a strong campaign for Governor of Delaware since 2004, and that seems unlikely to change this cycle.The biggest name on Delaware’s meager GOP bench, ex-State Treasurer Ken Simpler (R), was ousted in 2018 and is unlikely to take on such an uphill race against Carney.

11. North Dakota Safe R (11)

The Safest Governor of all is North Dakota’s Doug Burgum (R). Burgum (R) has posted strong approval ratings in his deep-red state and looks like a prohibitive favorite for a second term. Democrats’ likely nominee is a total unknown, veterinarian Shelley Lenz (D), who seems unlikely to be any serious threat to the popular incumbent and seems little more than a token challenger.

2021 races:

New Jersey Lean D

Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has maintained mediocre approval ratings for the first half of his first term, though his bigger issue has been significant internecine feuding within the state’s Democratic establishment. Murphy has sought to push the state’s highly transactional Democratic machines in a more ideologically liberal direction, which has met with some resistance, particularly from the South Jersey machine of George Norcross (D) and his top Trenton emissary, Senate Pres. Steve Sweeney (D). Sweeney himself has been considering a primary challenge to Murphy from a less progressive direction. While Murphy is likely to win renomination, issues with more moderate Democrats could provide the opening for Republicans to win the crossover support needed to prevail in the blue state. Ex-State Rep. and 2017 gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli (R) has already announced a bid, while several others, including State Rep. Jon Bramnick (R) and 2018 Senate nominee Bob Hugin (R), are thought to be interested. New Jersey is a blue state, but one where Republicans have won six of the last ten gubernatorial elections. Thus, while Murphy and Democrats look likely to be moderate favorites, we still consider the race competitive.

Virginia Lean D

Virginia Democrats seem to be moving forward with the intent to sweep their scandals of February 2019 thoroughly under the rug. AG Mark Herring (D) is still seeking to follow in the footsteps of his fellow blackface aficionado, Gov. Ralph “Coonman” Northam (D). Even more brazenly, LG Justin Fairfax (D) has announced he will run for Governor despite sexual assault allegations in his past. Democrats will likely want to look for other options besides Fairfax and Herring, and State Sen. Jennifer McClellan (D) of Richmond, considered a rising star in the Party, has made moves toward a bid. Several other Democrats, including ex-Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D), ex-Rep. and 2017 candidate Tom Periello (D), and State Rep. Jennifer Caroll-Foy (D) are thought to be interested in bids. On the GOP side, antiestablishment conservative State Sen. Amanda Chase (R) is the only Republican to declare interest, but her history of erratic behavior and staunch conservative views are likely to make her a weak candidate. Republicans thus may be looking for other options, including ex-Rep. Barbara Comstock (R), Rep. Denver Riggelman (R), and State Sen. Jill Vogel (R). Overall, with Virginia looking a light but consistent shade of blue in recent years and continuing to trend left, we are marking Democrats as slight favorites. However, the race is still likely to be highly competitive. It seems very possible a subpar Democratic nominee could give the GOP a real opening, especially if Democrats win the Presidency this year.

Row Officers:

Separately Elected LGs:

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R DE (Hall-Long)

VT (OPEN) WA (OPEN) NC (OPEN) MO (Kehoe)

Delaware: Incumbent Bethany Hall-Long (D) is unlikely to face serious opposition for a second term due to Delaware’s blue-state nature and affinity for unexciting establishment liberals. Safe D

Missouri: Appointed incumbent Mike Kehoe (R) is seeking a full term after being tapped for the post by Gov. Mike Parson (R). No Democrats have currently expressed interest in the post. Missouri is a red state that is moving right at a great rate, and Kehoe could benefit from his ties to the popular Parson. However, Kehoe is still unproven and Missouri is not red enough to rule out the possibility of an upset if Democrats recruit a strong candidate. Likely R

North Carolina: North Carolina will elect its first Black LG to the open seat that Dan Forest (R) is leaving to run for Governor. Republicans nominated factory worker Mark Robinson (R), who became a viral star for a pro-second amendment speech to the Greensboro city council. Democrats nominated State Rep. Yvonne Lewis-Holley (D). Both nominees seems credible, and the purple state is probably more likely than not to vote for each of both Trump and Gov. Roy Cooper (D) up ballot. Thus, the race looks close to a pure Tossup. Tossup

Vermont: Incumbent David Zuckerman (P/D), a staunch left-winger, is running for Governor. Dems have a crowded primary field of State Senate Pres. Tim Ashe (D), State Sen. Debbie Ingram (D), 2018 gubernatorial candidate Brenda Siegel (D), and prosecutor Molly Gray (D). Republicans have an interesting candidate in consultant Meg Hansen (R), who was previously a physician in her native India. However, Hansen is little-known, and the deep-blue lean of the state means any Democrat should start as a strong favorite. Safe D

Washington: Incumbent Cyrus Habib (D) surprisingly announced his retirement this week to become a Jesuit priest. Habib was seen as unlikely to face serious opposition for a second term, so thus far no candidates have declared interest in the race. Washington is a medium-blue state that has shown some openness to electing moderate Republicans, so we are putting this race onto the edge of the playing field in the Likely D category. Likely D

Attorneys General:

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R OR (Rosenblum)

VT (Donovan)

WA (Ferguson) PA (Shapiro) NC (Stein)

IN (Hill)

MT (OPEN) MO (Schmitt)

WV (Morrisey) UT (Reyes)

Indiana: Incumbent Curtis Hill (R) is seeking a second term, in spite of an ongoing controversy over a 2018 incident. At a party for legislators and staffers at the close of the legislative session, Hill was accused of groping four women, allegations which have been substantiated by an investigation. Much of the state GOP establishment is calling for Hill to retire or even resign. That base seems likely to provide an opening for Hill’s challengers at the GOP nominating convention, attorney John Westercamp (R), who helped then-Gov. Mike Pence (R) draft the state’s controversial religious-freedom law, or gov. Eric Holcomb (R) administration revenue secretary Adam Krupp (R). Democrats have a contest at their nominating convention between ex-Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel (D) and State Sen. Karen Tallian (D), who could each be a credible nominee. Democrats could have a significant opening in the race, especially if Hill is renominated, but Indiana is a red state that is becoming even more so. Thus, we mark Republicans as slight favorites to hold this seat in what will likely be a highly competitive race. Lean R

Missouri: Appointed incumbent Eric Schmitt (R) is seeking a full term as AG. Schmitt was elected State Treasurer in 2016 before being moved down the hall by appointment by Gov. Mike Parson (R). Democrats have a primary between former federal prosecutor Rich Finneran (D) and attorney Elad Gross (D); Finneran seems the initial favorite in the primary. Though he is not technically an elected incumbent, Schmitt proved a strong statewide candidate in his 2016 Treasurer win, and Missouri is becoming an increasingly red state. However, Democrats could have a credible nominee, so we are leaving the race on the edge of the playing field out of an abundance of caution. Likely R

Montana: Incumbent Tim Fox (R) is termed-out and running for Governor. Republicans have a competitive primary between Roosevelt County DA and ex-State House Speaker Austin Knudsen (R) and Fox’s top deputy Jon Bennion (R); there is no clear favorite for the nomination. Democrats also have a competitive primary between State Rep. Kim Dudik (D) and Gov. Steve Bullock (D) aide Ralph Graybill (D), with no clear favorite. With both sides likely to have credible nominees, the medium-red lean of the state should leave the GOP nominee as a moderate, but far from prohibitive, favorite. Lean R

North Carolina: Incumbent Josh Stein (D) is seeking a second term after winning a narrow victory in 2016 over a mediocre GOP nominee. Republicans’ nominee this time is Forsyth County DA Jim O’Neill (R), who narrowly lost the primary four years ago. With the benefit of incumbency and a purple state, not to mention his 7-figure warchest, Stein looks like a mild favorite, but as a large-county DA O’Neill is a credible contender and the race seems likely to be competitive. Lean D

Oregon: Incumbent Ellen Rosenblum (D), who sits in a Row Office that is not term-limited (unlike the others in the Beaver State), faces only token opposition for a third term from 2016 nominee Daniel Crowe (R). Safe D

Pennsylvania: Incumbent Josh Shapiro (D) is seeking a second term and is regarded as one of the biggest rising stars on the state’s Dem bench. Republicans’ likely nominee is ex-Allegheny County councilwoman Heather Heidelbaugh (R), who is a credible contender but is little-known statewide. Pennsylvania is purple enough that the race could be competitive if Shapiro makes an unforced error, but Shapiro seems likely to start as a strong favorite. Likely D

Utah: Incumbent Sean Reyes (R) is facing two serious intraparty rivals in his predecessor, ex-AG John Swallow (R), who was forced out of office due to corruption issues (that he later was cleared of) and Utah County DA David Leavitt (R). Reyes should be favored in the primary, but either of his rivals could pull the upset. Any GOP nominee will be a strong favorite in the deep-red state over trial lawyer Greg Skordas (D). Safe R

Vermont: Incumbent TJ Donovan (D) is unlikely to face serious primary or general election opposition in the deep-blue state. Safe D

Washington: Incumbent Bob Ferguson (D) is seeking a third term after Gov. Jay Inslee (D) decided to seek re-election and pushed him out of the race for Governor. The likely GOP nominee is corporate legal counsel and former prosecutor Matt Larkin (R), who is little-known. Larkin seems unlikely to pose a significant threat to the entrenched incumbent Ferguson in the blue state. Safe D

West Virginia: Incumbent Patrick Morrisey (R) is seeking a third term. Morrisey is an ideological conservative who is perhaps not the best fit for the populist state. That profile has given Democrats enthusiasm to take him on. Most of the state establishment seems to be backing State Rep. Isaac Sponaugle (D), who has held-down a deep-red state in the east-central part of the state. However, attorney Sam Petonsk (D) is also in the race and likely to run on a more liberal platform than Sponaugle. Morrisey is perhaps not the strongest candidate, as evidenced by his 2018 US Senate loss. However, the rightward stampede in the state, which is now blood-red, gives him a significant advantage. Thus, while Sponaugle and Petonsk are credible enough to keep the race on the edge of the playing field, Morrisey likely starts as a strong favorite. Likely R

Secretaries of State:

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R VT (Condos) NC (Marshall) OR (OPEN) WA (Wyman) MT (OPEN)

WV (Warner) MO (Ashcroft)

Missouri: Incumbent Jay Ashcroft (R) is seeking a second term. Democrats’ likely nominee is prosecutor Yinka Faleti (D), who has an interesting biography of being a Nigerian immigrant and veteran, but is little-known and seems to have fairly staunchly left-wing views. With Ashcroft’s incumbency and a conservative state that is growing even redder, Ashcroft seems a strong favorite to hold the seat. Safe R

Montana: Incumbent Corey Stapleton (R) is forgoing a second term to seek the state’s at-large congressional seat. Republicans have a crowded primary between State Senate Pres. Scott Sales (R), elected State Supreme Court Clerk Bowen Greenwood (R), State Rep. Forrest Mandeville (R), and SoS office staffer Christi Jacobsen (R); Sales looks like a slight favorite, but all four are serious. State Sen. Bryce Bennett (D) is the likely Dem nominee and should be a credible candidate. With credible contenders likely on both sides, the medium-red lean of Montana means the GOP nominee should be a moderate favorite in a competitive race. Lean R

North Carolina: Longtime incumbent Elaine Marshall (D) is seeking a seventh term and will face Cruz Presidential Campaign staffer EC Sykes (R), who has some self-funding ability. Though she failed in her attempts to run for the Senate and was considered a weak candidate in those races, Marshall has somewhat surprisingly become one of the most consistent overperformers on the North Carolina Dem bench in her SoS races. Coupled with Sykes’s low statewide name recognition, Marshall looks like a strong favorite, but North Carolina is a purple state where it’s hard to mark either party as a safe bet. Thus, Marshall seems a strong but not prohibitive favorite. Likely D

Oregon: Republicans were dealt a major blow in this race when SoS Dennis Richardson (R), the only Republican to win statewide in Oregon since 2002, died of brain cancer in the middle of his term. Appointed incumbent Bev Clarno (R) is fulfilling a pledge not to seek a full term, but Republicans do have a credible candidate in State Sen. Kim Thatcher (R). On the Dem side, three candidates are facing off in the primary: establishment liberal State Sen. Mark Hass (D) and 2018 OR-2 nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D), and left-wing State Sen. Shemia Fagan (D). There is no clear favorite in the Dem primary. With Oregon’s blue-state nature and no obvious top-tier GOP contender, Democrats look like moderate favorites to pick up the seat. Lean D

Vermont: Incumbent Jim Condos (D) is unlikely to face serious opposition for a sixth term in his deep-blue state. Safe D

Washington: Incumbent Kim Wyman (R) is seeking a third term in this seat that has improbably been continuously held by the GOP for over a half-century. Washington has continued its streak of electing GOP Secretaries of State even as the state has become more solidly blue. Democrats’ establishment seems to be coalescing around State Rep. Gael Tarleton (D) of Seattle in the race to take on Wyman, though attorney Jeff Winmill (D) is also in the race. As downballot races become more partisan, it is possible this is the year the GOP’s hold on this race breaks and the blue state lean of Washington seeps through. However, the Evergreen State’s history of affinity for moderate Republicans in less-partisan offices could allow Wyman to hold on. For now, there is no clear favorite. Tossup

West Virginia: Incumbent Mac Warner (R) picked this seat up in an upset in 2016 as this historically-Dem state shifted to deep-red. Warner is facing a rematch with the woman he ousted in 2016, ex-SoS Natalie Tennant (D). Tennant has high name recognition and could be a strong candidate for Dems, while Warner has long had some issues with alleged poor conditions in apartments owned by his family. However, West Virginia is an extremely Trumpist state that is trending even further right and Warner now has the benefit of incumbency. Thus, Warner starts as a moderate favorite for the seat, but Tennant’s candidacy and the historically-Dem nature of the state mean the race should be competitive. Lean R

State Treasurers:

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R VT (Pearce) OR (Read)

PA (Torsella) WA (Davidson)

WV (Perdue) NC (Folwell) MO (Fitzpatrick) ND (OPEN)

UT (Damschen)

Missouri: Appointed incumbent Scott Fitzpatrick (R) is seeking a full term. Democrats’ likely nominee is ex-State Rep. Vicki Englund (D), who represented a purple seat in suburban St. Louis off-and-on. Missouri is a red state that is growing even more conservative. However, Fitzpatrick has not been proven in a statewide race, and Englund could be a credible candidate. Thus, while we mark the GOP as a strong favorite to hold this seat, an upset is possible. Likely R

North Carolina: Incumbent Dale Folwell (R) is seeking a second term. Folwell is a non-controversial mainstream conservative. Democrats are running professor and Obama White House aide Ronnie Chatterji (D), who has fundraised surprisingly well for the low-profile race. With the benefit of incumbency and the purple nature of the state, Folwell looks like a slight favorite; however, Chatterji is credible and the race is likely to be competitive. Lean R

North Dakota: Longtime incumbent Kelly Schmidt (R) is retiring, and State Reps. Tom Beadle (R) and Dan Johnston (R) are in the race to succeed her; Beadle seems like the favorite in the primary. Democrats are running little-known university administrator Mark Haugen (D). With the deep-red lean of the state and low-profile office, any Republican is likely to start out a strong favorite. Safe R

Oregon: Incumbent Tobias Read (D) is facing a rematch with 2016 nominee and Lake Oswego councilman Jeff Gudman (R), whom he narrowly outpaced in 2016. Read has faced negative headlines for his large proportion of donations from out-of-state law-firms with class-action lawsuit business before the Treasurer’s office. While Gudman’s entry makes the race competitive, Read is still an incumbent in a blue state and likely to be at least a moderately strong favorite for a second term. Likely D

Pennsylvania: Incumbent Joe Torsella (D) is seeking a second term. Torsella is a non-controversial incumbent in a purple state, and faces a little-known Republican in businesswoman, veteran, and 2019 PA-12 candidate Stacy Garrity (R). Thus, Torsella seems a strong favorite, though Pennsylvania is purple enough that Garrity could have a chance to make the race competitive. Likely D

Utah: Incumbent David Damschen (R) does not face serious opposition for a second term in the red state. Safe R

Vermont: Incumbent Beth Pearce (D) is unlikely to face serious opposition for a fifth full term in her deep-blue state. Safe D

Washington: Incumbent Duane Davidson (R) won this seat in a fluke R-on-R general in 2016 and will face a tough fight for a second term. Democrats’ establishment appears to be coalescing around State Rep. Mike Pellicciotti (D), who defeated a Republican incumbent to win his suburban Seattle district in 2016, as their choice to take on Davidson. Washington’s blue lean and the flukish nature of Davidson’s victory, combined with a credible contender for Dems in Pellicciotti, mean Dems have a strong shot to flip the seat. However, Davidson is a non-controversial incumbent in a low-profile office, and Washington does have a streak of supporting moderate Republicans in less-partisan offices. Thus, for now there is no clear favorite. Tossup

West Virginia: Longtime incumbent John Perdue (D) narrowly held on to become the only Democratic Row Officer in the historically-Democratic state that is now blood-red. Perdue is seeking a seventh term this year. He is facing ex-State Rep. Riley Moore (R), nephew of US Sen. Shelley Moore-Capito (R). Perdue has proven campaign skill, but is facing a state that is only getting even more conservative, and Moore could be a credible candidate for the GOP. Thus, for now we default to considering neither a clear favorite in this race. Tossup

State Auditors:

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R NC (Wood)

VT (Hoffer)

WA (McCarthy) PA (OPEN) ND (Gallion)

UT (Dougall)

WV (McCuskey)

North Carolina: Incumbent Beth Wood (D) narrowly won a third term in 2016 and is now seeking a fourth. Wood is a non-controversial mainstream liberal in a purple state, but her main asset is an incredible primary failure on the GOP side. Republicans inexplicably nominated water board member Anthony Wayne Street (R), who has had a long history of run-ins with the law, including stalking charges. Thus, Street seems unlikely to get any meaningful institutional support and Wood should be the prohibitive favorite. Safe D

North Dakota: Incumbent Josh Gallion (R) is seeking a second term after initially considering retirement due to several powers of his office being taken away. He is unlikely to face serious opposition for re-election in his deep-red state. Safe R

Pennsylvania: Incumbent Eugene DePasquale (D) is termed-out and running for Congress, and Dems have have a crowded primary to succeed him. Pittsburgh city comptroller Michael Lamb (D), State Rep. Scott Conklin (D), 2016 PA-16 nominee Christina Hartman (D), 2018 LG candidate Nina Ahmad (D), and Auditor’s office staffer Tracie Fountain (D) are in the race, with a couple others still considering. On the GOP side, Dauphin County comptroller Tim DeFoor (R) looks like the primary favorite over Lancaster County commissioner Dennis Stuckey (R). With both sides likely to have credible candidates and Pennsylvania increasingly looking like a bright-purple swing state, for now there is no clear favorite. Tossup

Utah: Incumbent John Dougall (R) does not face serious opposition for re-election to a third term. Safe D

Vermont: Incumbent Doug Hoffer (D) is unlikely to face serious opposition for a fifth term in the deep-blue state. Safe D

Washington: Incumbent Pat McCarthy (D) is unlikely to face serious opposition for a second term in her blue state. Safe D

West Virginia: Incumbent JB McCuskey (R) is considered a rising star on the state GOP bench and does not face serious opposition for a second term. Safe R

Insurance Commissioners:

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R DE (Navarro)

WA (Kriedler) NC (Causey) MT-Aud (OPEN) ND (Godfread)

Delaware: Incumbent Trinidad Navarro (D) is unlikely to face serious opposition for a second term. Safe D

Montana Auditor: This office is called “State Auditor,” but it is really the state’s Insurance Commissioner and a doesn’t audit anything. Incumbent Matt Rosendale (R) is forgoing re-election to seek the state’s at-large congressional seat. 2018 US Senate candidate and storage-company executive Troy Downing (R) looks like the front-runner for the GOP nomination, but also faces primary opposition from businesswoman Nelly Nicol (R) and insurance agent Scott Tuxbury (R). State Rep. Shane Morigeau (D) looks likely to be the Dem nominee. Both sides are likely to have credible nominees, but the medium-red lean of the state means the GOP nominee will likely start as a moderate favorite. Lean R

North Carolina: Incumbent Mike Causey (R), a former perennial candidate, picked up this seat in a shock upset four years ago. Causey has been mostly notable as Insurance Commissioner for his efforts in uncovering a bribery scandal that led to the conviction of ex-NCGOP chair Robin Hayes (R). Causey is facing a rematch with ex-Insurance Commissioner Wayne Goodwin (D), who has in the interim served as NCDP chair. With Democrats’ well-known contender in Goodwin likely neutralizing much of Causey’s incumbency advantage, the purple lean of the state means the race should likely be highly competitive. Tossup

North Dakota: Incumbent Jon Godfread (R), the nation’s tallest politician, is unlikely to face serious opposition for a second term. Safe R

Washington: Incumbent Mike Kriedler (D) has not yet drawn serious opposition for a fifth term in the blue state. Safe D

Superintendents + Agriculture, Labor, & Lands Commissioners:

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R WA-Lands (Franz)

WA-Supt* (Reykdal) NC-Lab (OPEN)

NC-Supt (OPEN)

WI-Supt (OPEN) MT-Supt (Arntzen)

NC-Agri (Troxler) ND-Supt* (Baesler)

WV-Agri (Leonhardt)

(*) North Dakota and Washington Superintendents are formally non-partisan elections.

Montana Superintendent: Incumbent Elise Arntzen (R) is seeking a second term. Arntzen, a mainstream conservative, will face a rematch with 2016 nominee and teacher Melissa Romano (D). Romano has seen some good headlines and some bad since her run four years ago: she was named the state’s 2018 Teacher of the Year, but also saw her husband arrested on drug charges. With the medium-red lean of the state and Arntzen’s incumbency, she is likely to start as a substantial favorite. However, Romano is a credible candidate for Dems and Montana has a populist Dem heritage, so an upset can not be ruled out. Likely R

North Carolina Agriculture Commissioner: Incumbent Steve Troxler (R) is seeking a fifth term. Troxler is generally one of the NCGOP’s more consistent statewide overperformers. Democrats are running elected water board member Jenna Wadsworth (D). With Troxler’s incumbency and the relatively “B” list nature of the Democratic field, Troxler looks like a fairly strong favorite. However, NC is purple enough that an upset can not be ruled out. Likely R

North Carolina Labor Commissioner: Incumbent Cherie Berry (R) is retiring and Republicans have nominated State Rep. Josh Dobson (R) to succeed her. Democrats are running Wake County commissioner Jessica Holmes (D), who has strong establishment support and has cleared the primary field. Both sides will have credible contenders, and coupled with the purple nature of the state, that means there is so far no clear favorite. Tossup

North Carolina Superintendent: Incumbent Mark Johnson (R), who picked this seat up in an upset four years ago, is giving up the seat to run for LG. Democrats have been champing at the bit to reclaim this seat for some time and have a credible nominee in professor Jen Mangrum (D). Republicans are running Gov. McCrory administration official Catherine Truitt (R). In a purple state with both sides likely to have credible nominees, there is no clear favorite for now. Tossup

North Dakota Superintendent: Incumbent Kristen Baesler (R) was initially thought unlikely to draw serious opposition for a third term until she was arrested for DUI last month. Baesler now has two challengers in local superintendent Brandt Dick (R) and 2018 Indie Congressional candidate Charles Tuttle (R); Dick in particular may be a threat to Baesler’s re-election. Though the office is formally non-partisan, no Democrats are running for the seat. Safe R

Washington Lands Commissioner: After abandoning a potential gubernatorial bid, incumbent Hilary Franz (D) is unlikely to face serious opposition for re-election. Safe D

Washington Superintendent: Though the race is non-partisan, incumbent Chris Reykdal (D) is a favorite of teachers’ unions and the state Democratic establishment. He is likely to be a strong favorite over nonprofit exec and 2018 legislative candidate Maia Espinoza (R) in the blue state. Safe D

West Virginia Agriculture Commissioner: Democrats recruited a surprisingly serious challenger to incumbent Kent Leonhardt (R) in State Sen. Bob Beach (D). Thus, we are putting the race on to the very edge of the playing field, but Leonhardt’s incumbency and the deep-red lean of the state still make him a strong favoirte. Likely R

Wisconsin Superintendent: This race will take place in the spring of 2021. Appointed incumbent Carolyn Stanford-Taylor (D) is not seeking a full term and thus far no candidates have publicly declared interest in the post. Thus, for now we default to the purple lean of the state and start the race in the Tossup category.