The courageous early move of the Baltic states was the key to disunion, but the departure of Ukraine is the sledgehammer blow. Imagine the United States without its southeastern quadrant; subtract the old Confederacy from our map to get an idea of what an impact on Russian colonialism the separation of Ukraine's 52 million people and productive capacity will have.

On the overnight train from Moscow to Kiev, the visitor gets a notion of the potential richness of the land. Black loam, intensive cultivation and a friendly climate add up to food production and economic power as soon as frustrated farmers are given transportation and the incentives of private property and personal gain. This is potentially France, not Bangladesh.

We should shake free of our old questions (What will independence do to the Soviet Union? How will Russia survive without its breadbasket?) and address the new: What sort of nation will Ukraine be?

Strongly nationalistic, for openers. The word "Ukraine" means "borderland"; its Catholic west faces Europe, its Greek Orthodox east faces Asia. To win the coming referendum, the Ukrainians in the west have been actively selling the Russian-speaking population in the east (including those in the Crimea, a Black Sea gift to Ukraine from Khrushchev) on the glories of nationhood.

Opportunistic, too. The candidate leading the race for the presidency is Leonid Kravchuk, a longtime Communist subservient to the Kremlin and silent during the coup who has undergone a miraculous conversion to independence. He has stolen the Rukh opposition's platform, and if he gets away with the flip-flop, it will be a measure of the populace's desire for freedom from Moscow without too much change at home.