Economists are worried about the future of the U.S. economy. That was the takeaway of a Reuters poll last week of more than 100 economists, who forecast a one-in-three chance that America would suffer another a U.S. recession within the next two years. “While predicting turning points in economic cycles is no easy task, the recovery from the devastating 2007-2009 financial crisis has been unusually lengthy,” Reuters reported, “and the latest poll showed some signs the current economic expansion will end soon.”

Reuters understates the matter: Economic predictions are no more reliable than Super Bowl ones. After all, those same economists predicting a recession also forecast an average of 2.8 percent growth in 2018, due to the Republican tax cuts passed late last year. But this much is certain: A recession in the next couple of years would be catastrophic for the many millions of Americans who haven’t recovered one bit since the last one.

The skyrocketing cost of gas, which hit a four-year high over Memorial Day weekend, isn’t helping matters. A political crisis in Venezuela has stalled virtually all oil production there, and oil traders are spooked by President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal: If the U.S. reimposes sanctions on the country, up to one million barrels per day would vanish from the global supply. Those factors, along with fears that Trump’s new national security team will create more tension in the Middle East, have caused the price of oil to rise by around 50 percent over the past year, peaking at $73 a barrel.

Oil price shocks historically have been a main cause of recessions. Higher fuel and heating costs raise the cost of living, as well as the cost of transporting goods around the country and the world. The U.S. produces much more of its own oil these days, and it has come a long way in energy efficiency. But plenty of the global economy still runs on the burning of crude, and a price spike can still pack a wallop. The subsequent inflation in consumer goods sparked by rising gas prices can prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, further dampening investment and slowing the economy.

But events in the past couple of days reinforce why you shouldn’t bet on the timing of a recession. Indications from Saudi Arabia and Russia that they would increase their oil supply by one million barrels per day brought prices down by 10 percent. Oil-producing countries have a lot of tools to stave off runaway prices. They want to keep oil in the sweet spot: high enough to make money, low enough to facilitate growth.