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Neighbors greet each other as they gather to vote in Worcester on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2018. A change to Census Bureau reporting policies could impact the data coming out of small towns, like Worcester. Photo by Glenn Russell/VTDigger

A little-known proposed change to how the Census reports data could have a major impact on Vermont’s small communities, changing population totals in some towns by 10% or more.



Michael Moser, who heads the Vermont State Data Center, is among a group pushing back against a proposal that would alter Census data in an effort to protect individuals’ privacy, but which could result in substantive changes to the count totals in small towns.



After an analysis of 2010 data found that individuals could be identified through Census information, Census Bureau officials developed an algorithm that would randomly change the count by small amounts in some places.



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But Moser, like other local Census leaders, say that the algorithm would alter the results in Vermont. That could impact federal funding, election districts and the fundamental understanding of the state’s demographic trends.



“From what I’ve seen, it could drastically change the characteristics of our geographies,” he said. “We’re one of the smallest populations in the country, so we could lose or gain an entire subset of our population.”



What change is the Census making to the data?

The proposed change would not impact how the Census is carried out, but it would tweak the count released to the public. After the Census is done counting Americans in July, it will collect that data and begin to publish the results on Dec. 31, 2020.

The Census is constitutionally required to release this data to the government so it can correctly distribute electoral votes and build congressional districts. That data will likely include a total breakdown of the population, along with a breakdown by gender, age and race, among other factors — just as it has in previous years.

But for the first time, the Census Bureau plans to use an algorithm to introduce “noise” to the data, adding or taking away small amounts of people to the final numbers, said Peter Nelson, professor of geography at Middlebury College.

“When you’re looking at something like the size of the city of Burlington, or the state of Vermont, that noise probably isn’t going to have that big of an impact,” Nelson said. “But for smaller units and more rural places, it could lead to wildly higher estimates or lower estimates.”

How would that affect Vermont communities?

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The Census has already published some data to show what that might look like: It used its own model for the 2020 figures on the existing 2010 data to give researchers an idea of the effect.

VTDigger’s analysis of those results found that for small towns and villages, the total number of people reported could swing by 10% or more.



With this algorithm, the more researchers drill down into subsets of the population — people of color, people over 65 — the more the minor fluctuations in the data are going to alter the count people see, Nelson said. That matters when researchers are trying to study those specific demographics.

“In Vermont we’re very much engaged in trying to figure out how to reshape our public education system at the primary school level through the high school level,” Nelson said. “If the federal government starts reporting data that doesn’t accurately reflect the populations of 5- to 17-year-olds, what are towns supposed to do?”

Researchers in at least five other states have also found differences in important demographic measures in their region, including the percentage of people of color, the fertility rate and the number of people in prisons, according to a document Moser provided.

Michael Harrington, acting commissioner of the Department of Labor, center, speaks during Gov. Phil Scott’s press conference at his ceremonial office at the Statehouse in Montpelier on Thursday, February 13, 2020. Harrington and State Librarian Jason Broughton, right, joined the governor in calling for Vermonters to participate in the 2020 census. Photo by Glenn Russell/VTDigger

Still, it’s too early to say exactly how much of an impact the change will have. Moser said the algorithm was like a “dial” that the Census Bureau could use to change the results by a little or a lot.

Jason Broughton, chair of the Complete Count Committee and state librarian, said the Census needed to communicate this change to those small communities so they could understand better how it would affect them.

“If it is too rigid and inflexible, and people on the ground who are going to be impacted aren’t a part of that conversation so that they can say ‘yes, there are people here.’ … it will show on the record that there’s nobody living in an area, or that there’s not that many people in that town,” Broughton said.

In a statement to VTDigger, the Census Bureau said it was continuing to take feedback from researchers about how to implement the change.

Why is the Census Bureau doing this?

The Census is required by law to ensure confidentiality to participants.

“One of the mandates of the Census is that it does have to make sure that confidentiality is almost 100%, if they can actually do it,” Broughton said.

The Bureau has used other strategies to protect individual data, such as refusing to release data for very small populations and limiting access to other data to qualified academics. But with data science techniques becoming more sophisticated, it has become more challenging to prevent determined individuals from unlocking more detailed information.

In 2019, researchers at the Census reported that with certain specialized techniques, they could pinpoint specific people in the 2010 data and find out their age, gender, race and location. But there’s no evidence yet that people are doing this outside the Census Bureau.

A change the Census Bureau is making to data reporting in order to protect privacy could have large impacts on small communities, like Saxton’s River. Photo by Elizabeth Gribkoff/VTDigger

The problem lies in the details when drilling down to tiny geographies. If a person reports she is one of a handful of women over 40 living with two children under 10 in a small Vermont village, someone could look at the front-facing data and combine it with publicly available records to deduce who that person is — and then guess more personal details, like stated ethnicity.

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In an email statement, Daniel Velez, a spokesperson for the Census Bureau, said it’s implementing the algorithm precisely to protect places like Vermont’s small geographies. He said it aims to strike an “appropriate balance” between the need for accurate data and the need to control privacy risks.

“For areas that have a large number of people, the injected noise will be very small, but for areas with just a few people, (like many places in Vermont) there will be a lot of noise and it will offer a significant, quantifiable amount of privacy protection,” the statement said.

The new strategy has an advantage over old methodology, like suppressing data, because the Census can now release more detailed data for towns and neighborhoods, he said.

Nelson said it is ironic that people are worrying about the federal government accidentally revealing this information when private companies get far more data about you from your own devices.

“Nobody ever questions when they click on the app on their phone as to whether they agree to the terms and conditions,” he said. “And they’re collecting far more private and personal information.”

Sue Minter of Capstone Community Action on December 18, 2019 in Barre. Photo by Jane Langner courtesy of Capstone Community Action

Capstone Community Action, an organization that’s helping with Census efforts, has encountered concerns about the privacy of Census data for another reason: the proposed, then scrapped citizenship question, said Sue Minter, executive director of the organization.

The Trump administration asked the Census to include a question about whether respondents are U.S. citizens. It was later struck down by the Supreme Court, but many believe the proposal still may have a chilling effect.

“I think the Trump administration, by putting out there the idea that people would have to mention their citizenship status, even though that was overturned by the courts, has increased the fear,” Minter said. “They’ve lowered the likelihood that people are going to fill out their Census, so they kind of won that battle.”

Why does it matter?

The distribution of $2.5 billion could be at stake. That’s how much money goes to Vermont in a single year from federal government programs that rely on Census data to determine where to send their funding and how much to give, according to Counting for Dollars, a research project at George Washington University.

That’s why Minter and other community organizers are working so hard to get Vermonters counted: They want to make sure every possible dollar is going to the state to support the people that need it.

Capstone uses federally funded programs like Head Start, which provides early childhood education, and fuel assistance for low-income Vermonters, said Eloise Reid, Capstone’s Census coordinator.

“For example, say you have 100,000 kids in Vermont, but they only count 50,000 of them,” Reid said. “Then you only have money for the services for 50,000. But you’re getting 100,000 kids needing those services.”

It’s more difficult to say precisely how much money is at stake for small Vermont towns most affected by the new Census rule, since the data is scattered throughout the funding formulas of 55 federal programs, according to Counting for Dollars.

Andrew Reamer, a professor at George Washington University, pointed to the USDA’s rural development programs, which provide grants and loans to struggling rural communities. One program, Rural Renting Housing Loans, would use 2020 Census data to calculate what percentage of the state lives in substandard rural rental units.

Nearly 13% of the average Vermonter’s income comes from Census-guided programs, mostly Medicare and Medicaid, making it 7th in the nation. Vermont ranks second in the country for the percentage of the population living in rural communities, and fourth for percentage of the population over the age of 65. Both of those factors determine federal funding.

Adam Greshin, the Vermont commissioner of the Department of Finance and Management, said in an email that the administration had only recently been made aware of the algorithm and is looking into how it could affect the state.

The Census is also used to determine the boundaries of electoral districts for congressional and state races. The Vermont Secretary of State’s Office, which helps advise legislators on redistricting, said the information was fairly new to them and they are seeking more details.

Lastly, the data is important for understanding Vermont’s demographics. Researchers have used Census data to understand how Vermont’s aging population could affect its tax coffers and see who is leaving the state to move elsewhere.

“In a state like Vermont, which appears to be losing population for a long time, it’s even more impactful to make sure you get an accurate count,” Broughton said.

Coventry is another small Vermont community that could be impacted by the Census Bureau’s new algorithm. File photo by Mike Faher/VTDigger

What happens next?

Moser has been discussing the potential problems with key policymakers and experts, he said. In the meantime, the public won’t see a mention of this debate on the Census form.

Letters, which will start arriving in Vermont households on March 12, will provide a link to the online form in several languages, but people can request to fill out the form over the phone or receive a paper copy. Help is available at your local library or a community organization like Capstone, although no one is allowed to fill the form out on an individual’s behalf.

For more information, check out the national Census website or the state’s 2020 information.





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