



Recall my earlier article back in August about the

changing world of sports journalism and something I had remarked on in regards

to the misconception amongst some in the media about the intention of advanced

analytics. Here is what I wrote: Nobody, at least not a single person I can find, is

suggesting that advanced analytics should be used as a sole source for all

hockey decisions. Instead, they are being suggested as a complement to aid in

separating the signal from the noise, when it

comes to reviewing games or making player asset decisions.

Well, in the spirit of the season (training camp and roster

projections, that is) I decided to try and do just that. I’m going to draw up a

roster made up entirely of some of the strongest players in various advanced

stats categories, and keep it all under the current salary cap, and see what

sort of team we end up with.The purpose of this is to illustrate what a numerically-chosen roster might look like and offer up some real names that we can then discuss.

I’ll be drawing on a few different statistical categories

pulled from ExtraSkater (before it went dark), Hockey Analysis, and a Behind

the Net, then dropping the names into capgeek to use its model for calculating

cap hit and deployment. The categories include Fenwick (Fenwick = Shots +

Missed Shots), IPP (Individual Points Percentage – The percentage of goals

scored by players team while player is on the ice that the player had a point

on), and points per 60 minutes.

I’m prioritizing players who control the puck and send it in

the other direction. So, yeah, Mikael Backlund and TJ Brodie are on the team.

None of the players chosen were selected ahead of the

statistical categories. I let the numbers make the list and then went down

until I found names that I could afford so as to provide enough balance between

the forward, defense and goaltending. To be completely honest there were only

two players that I knew from the beginning I had to get on the roster and they

were the two Flames because of my familiarity with how well they handle the

possession side of the game and the value of their current contracts. Virtually

every other name that appears surprised me.

Hossa is surprisingly good as a two-way winger, where he ranks at the top of the league in regards to the Quality of Competition he faces and provides excellent offense. Toews is an excellent two-way center who can dominate play, win

possession and cover defensively against the best competition in the league while still posting strong offensive numbers. Taylor Hall is arguably one of the best

wingers and perhaps the best left-winger in the game today. His Individual Points Percentage, meaning the percentage of offensive production for his team

in which he had a direct part was a league-leading 98.1% last year, followed by

Ovechkin at 87.9%.

The second line has two strong possession

wingers in David Perron and Jaromir Jagr. Despite his age (or perhaps partially

on account of it) Jagr is ranked 7th for right wingers on the same

scale as Hossa. His Corsi Relative to Quality of Competition is an impressive

0.941, just behind players like Justin Williams, Hossa, Rick Nash and Corey

Perry. His contract is more affordable than those other players and his puck

protection and playmaking abilities would arguably complement the other two

rather well. Patrice Bergeron is the 2nd line center because of his tremendous

talent at zone entries, his high QualComp scores and faceoff percentages. David

Perron surprised me during my investigations. Exploring Hockey Analysis I

stumbled upon their HARO, HARD, and HART categories which are essentially Hockey

Analysis ratings of offense, defense, and the two combined. They adjust these

rankings with Fenwick data and then contrast them against quality of

competition and David Perron, in this case, leads the league as a player who

provides the most offense while minimizing changes against when playing some of

the toughest competition in the league.

The third line consists of Saad, Nugent-Hopkins and Voracek and

provides a combination of speed, skill, scoring and defensive acumen. Nugent-Hopkins

is an emerging two-way center who delivers tremendous

value defensively while contributing offensively at 5v5 and 5v4. He limits the opposition’s scoring chances as evidenced by the drop in

opposition Corsi numbers when he is on the ice to when he is off, and improves

the play of his linemates as shown in his WOWY numbers. Saad is an effective

scoring option on an ELC while Voracek is a strong option on the wing to

provide scoring who has performed well against more difficult opposition.

The fourth line is not a traditional 4th line

because of the high puck-possession metrics we see in the players here and the

overall talent level. As an example, rookie star Nathan MacKinnon is playing 4th line

wing. Backlund is a

possession monster, and his professed inability to score should be improved by

playing with Nathan MacKinnon. Antoine Roussel proved to be a very effective

depth player for Dallas last year with good possession numbers for a bottom-six

forward and a zone start differential from 41.3% to 49.2%. He also acts as

something of an agitator as reflected in his +0.3 penalty taken/drawn

differential. In short, he helps to move the puck in the right direction, adds

shots on goal, and draws penalties.

The extras are Gustav Nyquist and Ryan Garbutt, two

stand-out young players from last season who both had strong underlying numbers.

To this point I have used a number of statistical categories

that all reflect various aspects of the puck possession game, ranging from

Corsi relative numbers to IPP. For the defense, the categories aren’t always so

cut-and-dried.

My ideal role of a defensemen is that they are expected to

take the puck away from the opposition and then quickly pass it to a forward

for an offensive sortie. In some cases they are relied upon to skate the puck

out of the zone and create the rush and ensuing offensive zone pressure with a

shot on goal. As well, once zone possession has been established they are often

relied upon to hold the zone and recycle shots on net for rebounds and

deflection chances. All of these things require passing, skating mobility, and

agility, traits that I favour in blueliners. Size is a bonus in that it

provides a measure of physical range and strength to counter the forecheck, but

less so as an instigating factor in the deciding of a hockey game, measured by

hits. Hitting opponents has its place in the game as a means to separate the

player from the puck, but I’d rather have a defensive pairing who don’t have to

hit every shift in order to recapture possession.

This muddies the water and means that Quality of Competition

and straight Corsi ratings are sometimes necessary to piece together a larger

picture of a blueliner’s play. A defenseman with modest point totals and

unimpressive +/- numbers could be doing a fantastic job, but is limited by the

quality of his team or the opposition he is up against. TJ Brodie, for

instance, was even last season while collecting a modest 31 points, yet by more

discerning measures he was one of the best defensemen in the league last year.

My criteria favoured defensemen who play tougher

competition, often start in their own zone as a measure of the coach’s trust in

their defensive abilities, and were able to record positive scoring chances

relative to their teammates.

I’ve also included the goaltending, which was selected for

players on affordable deals who have shown the ability to play at a consistent

level over a reasonable period of time. I’m of the opinion that if your team is

paying a goaltender more than $6 million a year to stop pucks, you are relying

on him too much and there are weaknesses in other crucial areas of your team

that could limit success.

Ekman-Larsson and Brodin make up the top-pairing while

Brodie and Giordano are the second pairing. Ekman-Larsson is a top pairing

defender and terrific player who just happens to wear the jersey of a team

nobody cares about. He has consistently been sent out against the toughest

competition in the league, playing a majority of his games in the Western

Conference, and ranks in the top three in the league in +/- QualComp with

weaker teammates than his competitors in that regard (Gunnarson and Phaneuf)

and produces offensive chances in his team’s favour while limiting those of the

opposition.

Brodin showed quite well in his first season playing nearly

20 minutes a night. There are better defensemen ahead of him Quality of

Competition list, however his underlying numbers as a nearly-raw rookie were

solid when paired with a strong defense partner in Ryan Suter and the economic

considerations of the exercise dictate that value be found where it can. Placing

him with another solid veteran, and countryman at that, is justified by his

play thus far in similar circumstance.

Those familiar with this site won’t likely need any

justification for Giordano and Brodie as a top-pairing defense. In this

exercise I have them in the 2nd pairing, but the difference between

1st and 2nd is virtually negligible. They log heavy

minutes against the best competition in the league and post positive possession

numbers while doing it. Brodie is listed 11th in Corsi Relative to

Quality of Competition at Behind the Net and 4th for straight Corsi

weighed against the Quality of Competition behind Roman Josi, Jan Hejda and

Shea Weber.

Mark Giordano led the league in Corsi Rel last year for

defenders playing 60 games or more, just ahead of Brodie, Marc-Edouard Vlasic,

and Jake Gardiner. He ranks 3rd in the league for straight Corsi

weighed against Quality of Competition at 1.908, tied with Shea Weber, and

behind Josi and Hejda, respectively. Giordano, like Brodie, is currently on a

very affordable contract, making the addition all the more attractive from a

mathematical point of view.

Jake Muzzin and Martin Marincin both had strong

seasons last year as largely unheralded rookies. They received vastly different

treatment from their respective coaches when it came to zone starts with Muzzin

getting the OZone push while Marincin was buried in his own end most shifts,

but in both cases they produced positive scoring chances, Marincin a larger

number relative to his team. In Muzzin’s case he was ranked 7th in

the league in Corsi Rel at 13.5, 0.2 ahead of P.K. Subban, for defenders

playing in 60 or more games with Corsi Relative to Quality of Competition

numbers also similar to Subban, 0.556 to 0.586.

Marincin was called up halfway through the Oilers’

season and stuck, being one of the few defensemen to post positive Corsi

numbers while being paired with the Oilers’ best defenseman in Jeff Petry and

playing deep in the defensive zone almost every shift. His CorsiRel shows he

has more offensive impact relative to his team than Jake Muzzin, played more

often in his own zone and against tougher competition. His Corsi relative to Quality of Competition ranks him in line with Victor Hedman , Drew Doughty,

Duncan Keith and Alex Edler, while his overall Corsi Rel for defensemen that

played at last 40 games (Marincin played 44) has him 3rd in the

league behind (drum roll) Giordano and Brodie.

Dougie Hamilton is a strong young defender who can play the

same level of competition as Muzzin and Marincin, often with better offensive

results relative to their team. In all truth, one could rotate any of the

bottom three defenders through with only a change in playing styles.

Would this team win?

Well, I’m not sure that it is necessarily the best-looking

team to an outside observer. I’m sure people would criticize the defense for

not being tough enough or the goaltending for not having an established starter.

But there are four strong centers, great wingers with size, speed and skill

mixed all over the roster, and one or two agitators to draw penalties without

being liabilities in other areas of the game.

On a more analytical level, there are a number of players

here who drive play in a variety of categories, virtually every skater scores

well in relative Quality of Competition scores, and there are several player

who are at or near the top of the league in point production categories.

The purpose of this exercise was to illustrate that while analytics

alone might not provide the definitive answer to all roster questions, they can

deliver some interesting information and can offer a counterpoint to

discussions about who is the best player at a given position.

Personally, I think it would be interesting to see All Star

teams picked by two groups, the Professional Hockey Writers Association, and a

collective of some of the leading figures in the analytics fields.





