2018 HI, CT, MN, VT, & WI Legislative Primary Preview

Today we are combining our legislative previews for Hawaii tomorrow and Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin next Tuesday.

August 11:

Hawaii Senate :

HI-SD-3 (D) is an open D+12 seat covering most of the Kona region of the southwestern Big Island. Hawaii County commissioner Dru Kanuha (D) and ex-Hawaii County commissioner Brenda Ford (D) are facing off. Both are establishment liberals and there is no clear favorite.

HI-SD-4 (D) is a D+17 seat covering most of the northern Kohala and Hamakua regions of the Big Island. Incumbent Lorraine Inouye (D) is facing a serious challenge from geologist and consultant Heather Kimball (D), who is running on a left-wing platform. The incumbent looks like a slight favorite, but an upset is possible.

HI-SD-6 (D) is a D+13 seat covering western and southern Maui. Longtime incumbent Roz Baker (D) looks like a slight favorite over left-wing businesswoman Terez Amato (D), but an upset is possible.

HI-SD-7 (D) is a D+20 seat covering Molokai, Lanai, and the rural eastern half of Maui. Incumbent Jamie-Kaliani English (D) looks like a strong favorite over personal trainer Michael Tengan (D) and clerk Gayla Haliniak (D).

HI-SD-12 (D) is a D+17 seat around Waikiki. Incumbent Brickwood Galuteria (D), an establishment liberal, is facing attorney and 90s-era Gov. Waihee administration official Sharon Moriwaki (D), who is running as more of a progressive, particularly on economic issues.Galuteria looks like a moderate favorite but an upset is possible.

HI-SD-19 (D) is an open D+5 seat covering the Ewa Beach area. State Rep. Matt Lopresti (D) looks like a moderate favorite to move to the upper chamber over his two rivals, attorney Veronica Duzon (D) and nonprofit exec Alicia Maluafiti (D), though either Duzon or Malufiti could pull the upset. The primary winner will be favored over 2016 nominee Kurt Fevella (R) in the general election.

HI-SD-21 (D) is a D+6 seat covering the slumburby leeward (west) coast of Oahu. Incumbent Maile Shimabukuro (D) should be favored over retired therapist Tim Riley (D), who ran several unsuccessful legislative campaigns in Georgia. The primary winner will be favored over minister Diamond Garcia (D) in the general.

HI-SD-23 (D) is a D+6 seat covering Oahu’s north shore. Incumbent Gil Riviere (D), a moderate who was a Republican State Rep. before being defeated in a primary and then switching parties to win this seat, is facing a challenge from his predecessor. Ex-State Sen. Clayton Hee (D) is a more liberal Democrat who held this seat for twelve years before giving it up in 2014 in an unsuccessful LG bid. There is no clear favorite in the primary. Republicans are not contesting this seat.

HI-SD-24 (D) is an open D+14 seat covering the Kaneohe area. State Reps. Jarrett Keohokalole (D) and Ken Ito (D) are facing off. Ito is a 24-year legislator and a moderate, particularly on cultural issues, while Keohokalole is young (age 34) and more liberal. There is no clear favorite in the primary.

Hawaii House :

HI-LD-1 (D) is a D+21 seat covering the Hamakua region of the northern Big Island. Incumbent Mark Nakashima (D) is facing a challenge from nonprofit exec Koohan Paik-Mander (D), who is running on a far-left ultra-environmentalist platform. Nakashima should be favored but an upset is possible.

HI-LD-2 (D) is a D+24 seat covering most of Hilo. Appointed incumbent Chris Todd (D) is facing a serious challenge from businesswoman Terry Napeahi (D); there is no clear favorite.

HI-LD-3 (D) is a D+20 seat around the town of Volcano and Hilo’s inner southern suburbs. Incumbent Richard Onishi (D) looks like a slight favorite over far-left legislative staffer Raina Whiting (D), but an upset is possible.

HI-LD-5 (D) is a D+14 seat covering the southern Kona Coast region of the Big Island around the town of Captain Cook. Incumbent Richard Creagan (D) considered a State Senate run but backed out, and now has two rivals for his House seat. Former Miss Hawaii Jeanne Kapela (D) and 2014 candidate Bucky Leslie (D), who took 42% four years ago, are challenging Creagan; vote-splitting between his challengers probably leaves the incumbent favored but either rival could pull the upset.

HI-LD-7 (D) is a D+16 seat covering the Kohala region of the northern Big Island. Incumbent Cindy Evans (D), a former House Majority Leader, is facing a rematch with 2016 candidate David Tarnas (D), who lost to Evans by just 4 points two years ago. There is no clear favorite this time.

HI-LD-8 (D) is a D+20 seat on Maui around Wailuku. Appointed incumbent Troy Hashimoto (D) is facing three challengers in ex-Maui County commissioner Dain Kane (D), teachers’ union official Justin Hughey (D), and civil servant Mary Wagner (D). All are serious, and as Hashimoto has only been an incumbent for four months, there is no clear favorite and any could prevail.

HI-LD-9 (D) is a D+24 seat covering most of Kahului on Maui. Incumbent Justin Woodson (D) looks like a slight favorite over congressional staffer Kauanoe Batangan (D), but an upset is possible.

HI-LD-11 (D) is an open D+13 seat covering the southern part of Maui around Kihei. Ex-Maui County commissioner Don Couch (D) looks like a moderately strong favorite over businesswoman Tina Wildberger (D) and teacher Lee Myrick (D), though either of Couch’s rivals could pull the upset.

HI-LD-12 (D) is a D+19 seat covering the mountainous Kula area of central Maui. Incumbent Kyle Yamashita (D) is facing a rematch with 2016 candidate Tiare Lawrence (D), who lost by 7 points two years ago on a far-left platform. There is no clear favorite this year.

HI-LD-13 (D) is a D+21 seat covering Molokai, Lanai, and the rural Hana area of eastern Maui. Incumbent Lynn DeCoite (D) looks like a moderate favorite over organic farmer John-Bull English (D), but an upset may be a slight possibility.

HI-LD-15 (D) is a D+15 seat covering the Lihue area of Kauai. Incumbent James Tokioka (D) should be favored over businesswoman Queenie Dalgdig (D).

HI-LD-16 (D) is a D+17 seat covering the south shore of Kauai. Incumbent Dee Morikawa (D) should be favored over businesswoman Stephanie Iona (D).

HI-LD-23 (D) is an open D+23 seat around Manoa and the University of Hawaii. 2016 candidate Dale Kobayashi (D), whose mother is a city councilwoman and who himself lost to the prior incumbent by 1% two years ago, is now the favorite in a five-way field for the open seat. Kobayashi faces four rivals, city planner Dylan Armstrong (D), chamber of commerce official Andrew Garrett (D), professor Benton Rodden (D), and legislative staffer Elton Fukumoto (D). Any of the four could theoretically upset Kobayashi but more likely they all split the vote and allow Kobayashi to win easily.

HI-LD-29 (D) is a D+18 seat around the poor Kalihi neighborhood just north of downtown Honolulu. Incumbent Daniel Holt (D) is facing a rematch with 2016 candidate and legislative staffer James Logue (D). Holt won a crowded primary for the open seat two years ago 33-15 over Logue and should be favored with incumbency, though an upset is possible.

HI-LD-30 (D) is a D+19 seat around Honolulu Airport. Incumbent Romy Cachola (D) is under fire for alleged abuse of his taxpayer-funded car allowance and is facing a credible primary challenge from attorney and journalist Sonny Ganaden (D). Cachola still looks like a slight favorite, though an upset is possible.

HI-LD-33 (D) is a D+16 seat covering the more mountainous northern part of the Aiea area. Incumbent Sam Kong (D) squeaked to a 37-vote renomination win in 2016 over Tracy Arakaki (D). Arakaki is running again and there is no clear favorite. A third candidate, David Matsushita (D), is also running a serious campaign and could surprise, but more likely helps Kong by splitting the anti-incumbent vote.

HI-LD-36 (D) is an open D+10 seat covering eastern Mililani. The seat was GOP-held until the prior incumbent switched parties last year. Ex-State Rep. Marilyn Lee (D), who held this seat until being ousted in 2012 and lost comeback bids in 2014 and 2016 by large margins, is attempting once again. She faces three rivals, left-wing gubernatorial staffer Trish LaChica (D), zoning board member Dean Hazama (D), and 2016 candidate and attorney Zuri Aki (D). There is no clear favorite and any of the four could prevail. The primary winner will be favored over teacher Val Okimoto (R), who is considered one of state Republicans’ stronger recruits and could make the general competitive.

HI-LD-41 (D) is an open D+5 seat covering western Ewa Beach. Ex-State Rep. Rida Cabanilla (D) is the former House majority leader who was ousted in a 2014 primary over ethical issues related to a shady nonprofit. Cabanilla is seeking a comeback and facing zoning board member Lynn Robinson-Onderko (D); there is no clear favorite. The primary winner will be favored in the general over 2016 State Senate candidate Chris Fidelibus (R).

HI-LD-42 (D) is a D+4 seat covering most of Kapolei. Incumbent Sharon Har (D) looks like a strong favorite over EMT Jake Schafer (D). Republicans are not contesting this seat.

HI-LD-43 (D) is an open R-held D+5 seat around the southwest corner of Oahu. 2016 nominee Stacelynn Eli (D) looks like a strong favorite in the primary over carpenter Michael Jesus-Juarez (D). Republicans are not contesting this seat after the only GOP candidate was found to not be a citizen .

HI-LD-44 (D) is a D+6 seat around Waianae on the northern part of Oahu’s slumburby leeward (west) coast. Incumbent Cedric Gates (D) is facing a rematch with ex-State Rep. Jo Jordan (D), a moderate whom Gates ousted from the left by 11 points two years ago. With incumbency, Gates looks like a moderately strong favorite this time. Republicans are not contesting this seat.

HI-LD-46 (D) is a D+10 seat around Wahiawa. Appointed incumbent Lei Learmont (D) is facing a stiff challenge from teachers’ union official Amy Perruso (D). There is no clear favorite between the two.The third Dem, security guard Lester Fung (D), seems less serious. The primary winner will be favored over pastor John Miller (R) in the general.

HI-LD-47 (R) is a D+3 seat covering most of the northern tip of Oahu around Laie. Two Republicans are vying to take on incumbent Sean Quinlan (D) in the state’s least-Democratic legislative seat. Ex-State Rep. Richard Fale (R), who lost a State Senate bid in 2014, should be a moderate favorite over state GOP official Boyd Ready (R).

HI-LD-48 (D) is an open D+11 seat covering the northern part of the Kaneohe area. Ex-State Rep. Jessica Woolley (D), who held this seat until resigning to take a gubernatorial appointment in 2014, is seeking to get her seat back and faces three rivals. Legislative staffer Lisa Kitagawa (D) has strong establishment support and looks like Woolley’s most serious rival; there is no clear favorite between the two. Ex-State Rep. Kika Bukoski (D), who represented a seat on Maui in the early 2000s as a Republican, and teacher Randy Gonce (D) look like longer-shots but could surprise.

HI-LD-49 (D) is an open D+16 seat covering the southern part of the Kaneohe area. Four Democrats are facing off: Attorney Scot Matayoshi (D), zoning board member Mo Radke (D), recent college graduate Natalia Hussey-Burdick (D), and a non-serious Some Dude. There is no clear favorite between Matayoshi and Radke.

HI-LD-50 (D) is an R-held D+13 seat covering most of Kailua. Two Democrats are vying to take on incumbent Cynthia Thielen (R), a popular longtime RINO legislator. Teacher Micah Kalama-Pregitzer (D) looks like a moderate favorite over perennial candidate Miles Shiratori (D). The general might be competitive with #resistance enthusiasm but Thielen has historically locked this seat down fairly well.

August 14:

Connecticut Senate :

CT-SD-9 (D, R) is an open D+6 seat stretching through Hartford’s southern suburbs from Newington to Middletown. For Dems, State Reps. Tony Guerrera (D), who is more of a fiscal liberal, and Matt Lesser (D), who is more of a social liberal, are facing off. Guerrera has the official endorsement, but there is no clear favorite in the primary. For the GOP, Rocky Hill councilman Ed Charamut (R) should be the clear favorite over 19-year old college student Tyler Flanigan (R). The Dem primary winner will be favored in the general, but the race could be competitive.

CT-SD-13 (D) is an R-held D+6 seat around Meriden. Two Democrats are vying to take on incumbent Len Suzio (R), who narrowly picked this seat up in 2016 after losing narrowly in 2012 and 2014. Retired teacher Mary Abrams (D) has more establishment support and seems a moderate favorite over manager Alex Tiktinsky (D). The general election should be competitive.

CT-SD-14 (R) is an open D-held R+1 seat around Milford and Orange, suburbs west of New Haven. Milford councilman Anthony Giannatatasio (R) was the surprise winner for the official party endorsement, besting the favored State Rep. Pam Staneski (R) by one vote. Staneski is continuing to the primary, and her greater name recognition means there is no clear favorite in this race. The primary winner will head to a very competitive general with ex-State Rep. James Maroney (D), who Staneski ousted in 2014.

CT-SD-16 (D) is an open R+8 seat in suburbs east of Waterbury around Southington. Two Dems are vying for this seat. Zoning board member Dagmara Scalise (D) has the official party endorsement and looks like a slight favorite over ex-State Rep. Vickie Nardello (D), but Nardello’s name recognition from nearly two decades in the legislature before her 2012 loss could allow her to pull the upset. The winner will head to an uphill general against State Rep. Rob Sampson (R).

CT-SD-17 (D) is an R-held D+4 seat stretching through exurban areas from north of New Haven to south of Waterbury, around Ansonia. Three Democrats are vying to take on incumbent George Logan (R), who narrowly picked this seat up in a considerable upset in 2016. Union official Jorge Cabrera (D) has the strongest establishment support and looks like the slight front-runner. However, scientist Valerie Horsley (D) has some institutional support as well and could pull the upset. The third Dem, manager Sean Grace (D), seems a longer-shot but could surprise. The general should be competitive.

CT-SD-23 (D) is an open D+35 seat covering the eastern 3/4 or so of Bridgeport plus a chunk of Stratford. School board member and 2016 candidate Dennis Bradley (D), who took 46% two years ago against the prior incumbent, is running again. Bradley has the support of much of the local machine again (the prior incumbent was a mavericky leftist on bad terms with the establishment). This year, he is facing off with local Dem official and legislative staffer Aaron Turner (D), who has some institutional support of his own, including from the Teachers’ Union. Bradley should be favored, but primaries in Bridgeport can be very strange and an upset is very possible.

CT-SD-34 (D) is an R+4 seat stretching through New Haven suburbs from East Haven to Wallingford. Two Dems are vying to take on incumbent Len Fasano (R), the Senate GOP leader, in an uphill general. Attorney and veteran Josh Balter (D) is facing off with office manager Aili McKeen (D); the two have split establishment support and there is no clear favorite.

Connecticut House :

CT-LD-3 (D) is a D+41 seat in heavily Hispanic areas of southwestern Hartford. Incumbent Minnie Gonzalez (D), who is socially moderate, should be favored over grad student and self-described “cheese expert” Gannon Long (D).

CT-LD-5 (D) is a D+35 seat in heavily Black areas of northeastern Hartford and parts of the suburb of Windsor. Incumbent Brandon McGee (D) should be favored over nurse and zoning board member Lawrence Jaggon (D).

CT-LD-18 (D) is a D+26 seat covering the northeastern part of West Hartford. Incumbent Andy Fleischmann (D) should be favored over NARAL executive Jillian Gilchrest (D), but an upset is possible.

CT-LD-29 (D) is an open D+5 seat around Rocky Hill in Hartford’s southern suburbs. Rocky Hill councilman Chris Duff (D) has the party endorsement and looks like a moderate favorite over realtor Kerry Szeps-Wood (D). The primary winner will be favored over college student Andrew Lanciotto (R).

CT-LD-38 (D) is an R-held EVEN seat around Waterford, west of New London. Three Democrats are vying to take on incumbent Kathleen McCarty (R) in a competitive general. Waterford councilman Baird Welch-Collins (D) has the official party endorsement and looks like a slight favorite over labor official Nick Gauthier (D) and nurse Patrick Murphy (D); however, Gauthier in particular could pull the upset.

CT-LD-43 (D) is an open rural D+4 seat around Stonington at the southeast corner of the state. Stonington councilwoman Kate Rotella (D) has the party endorsement and looks like a moderately strong favorite over car salesman Chris Donahue (D). The primary winner will be favored over zoning board member Shaun Mastroianni (R) in a competitive general.

CT-LD-60 (D) is an R-held D+6 seat around Windsor Locks and Bradley Airport. Two Dems are vying to take on first-term incumbent Scott Storms (R) in a competitive general. Chamber of Commerce official Jane Garibay (D) looks like a a slight favorite over retired principal Kathleen Tracy (D), though an upset is possible.

CT-LD-126 (D) is a D+32 seat covering northeastern Bridgeport. Incumbent Charlie Stallworth (D) was bested for the official party endorsement by congressional staffer Shante Hanks (D). As Bridgeport primaries are complicated issues of warring machines (Stallworth has ties to mavericky Mayor and gubernatorial candidate Joe Ganim (D) while Hanks has ties to the mainline state Dems) there is no clear favorite.

CT-LD-140 (D) is an open D+27 seat covering part of the west side of Norwalk. Norwalk councilman Travis Simms (D) has the official party backing and should be favored over professor Colin Hosten (D).

CT-LD-146 (D) is a D+21 seat around downtown Stamford. Incumbent Terry Adams (D) should be favored over 2014 Green Party State Senate nominee David Michel (D). However, Michel surprisingly got the official Dem endorsement by one vote, so an upset is possible.

CT-LD-147 (R) is an open D+9 seat covering northern Stamford near the Merritt Parkway. Two Republicans are vying to take on Heir Force cadet Matt Blumenthal (D), son of Sen. Richard (D), in a potentially competitive general. D-turned-R Stamford councilman Anzelmo Graziosi (R), who was pushed out of the D race for Blumenthal, looks like a moderate favorite for the nomination over businesswoman Marcy Minnick (R), though an upset is possible.

Minnesota House :

MN-LD-6B (D) is an open D-held rural R+2 seat around Hibbing in the Iron Range. Civil servant Shaun Hainey (D) has the official party endorsement and should be favored over Aurora Mayor Dave Lislegard (D). However, Lislegard has some notable establishment support, including the endorsement of US Rep. Rick Nolan (D), so an upset is possible. The nominee will be favored over 2016 nominee Skeeter Tomczak (R) in this right-trending but historically-D seat.

MN-LD-26A (D) is a D+8 seat covering central Rochester. Incumbent Tina Liebling (D) launched a long-shot gubernatorial campaign but dropped back down to run for re-election after her bid went nowhere. She should still be favored for renomination over principal Abdulkadir Abdalla (D). The nominee will head to a potentially-competitive general with ex-Olmsted County commissioner Paul Wilson (R).

MN-LD-31B (R) is an R+18 seat in northern Twin Cities exurbs around Oak Grove. Incumbent Cal Bahr (R) is facing a rematch with the man he ousted by a 14-point margin in the 2016 primary, ex-State Rep. Tom Hackbarth (R). With incumbency, Bahr should be a fairly strong favorite.

MN-LD-34A (R) is an open R+6 seat around Rogers in the northwest Twin Cities exurbs. Businessman Brad Ganzer (R) has the official endorsement and should be favored over chamber of commerce exec and former congressional staffer Kristin Robbins (R), though Ganzer has been under fire for a 2010 bankruptcy and an upset is possible. The primary winner will face retired Naval officer Dan Solon (D) in a potentially-competitive general.

MN-LD-40B (D) is an open D+18 seat covering Brooklyn Center and southeastern Brooklyn Park in Minneapolis’s inner northern suburbs. Three Democrats are squaring off. Dem operative Cindy Yang (D) has the endorsement and looks like the front-runner, but zoning board member Samantha Vang (D) is also serious and could pull the upset. The third Dem, accountant Alexander Koenig (D), seems less serious.

MN-LD-41B (D) is a D+15 seat in inner northern Minneapolis suburbs around Columbia Heights. Incumbent Mary Kunesh-Podein (D) should be a strong favorite over airport baggage handler Jeffrey Wagner (D).

MN-LD-47B (R) is an open R+2 seat in southwest Twin Cities suburbs around Chanhassen. Carver County GOP chair Vince Beaudette (R) has the official endorsement and should be favored over Chaska councilman Greg Boe (R), though an upset is possible. The primary winner will advance to a competitive general with General Mills executive Donzel Leggett (D).

MN-LD-55A (R) is an R+3 seat around Shakopee in the southern Twin Cities exurbs. Incumbent Bob Loonan (R), who had a DUI earlier this year, was denied the party endorsement. Instead, the party endorsed businessman Erik Mortensen (R), who is probably a slight favorite, though Loonan’s incumbency could allow him to surprise. The nominee will head on to a competitive general with ex-Shakopee Mayor Brad Tabke (D).

MN-LD-57A (D) is an open D+2 seat covering most of Apple Valley in the southern Twin Cities suburbs. Five Democrats are facing off. Businessman Robert Bierman (D) has the party endorsement and looks like the front runner, but he faces four rivals: attorney Roxanne Mindeman (D), programmer Kyle Koch (D), consultant Linda Garrett-Johnson (D), and musician Jake Cassidy (D). However, it’s not actually clear that any of Bierman’s rivals are running serious campaigns, so they may have effectively dropped out after Bierman got the endorsement (after the filing deadline). The primary winner will head to a competitive general election with realtor Matt Lundin (R).

MN-LD-59A (D) is a D+32 seat in the largely-poor northwest part of Minneapolis. Incumbent Fue Lee (D) should be a strong favorite over realtor Grace Moua (D).

MN-LD-59B (D) is a D+32 seat around downtown Minneapolis and some areas immediately west. Incumbent Raymond Dehn (D) should be favored over teacher Lisa Neal-Delgado (D).

MN-LD-60B (D) is an open D+33 seat in areas around the University of Minnesota, which have a mixture of poor multi-ethnic communities and student/hipster types. Six Democrats are facing off; school board member Mohamud Noor (D) has the strongest establishment support and looks like the front-runner. The others are: legislative staffer Peter Wagenius (D), attorney Cordelia Pierson (D), law researcher Haaris Pasha (D), law student Joshua Preston (D), and realtor Mary Mellen (D); Wagenius in particular could upset Noor.

MN-LD-62A (D) is an open D+37 seat in largely poor areas immediately south of downtown Minneapolis. Five Democrats are facing off:,congressional staffer Osman Ahmed (D), city council staffer Rita Ortega (D), civil servant and zoning board member Omar Fateh (D), nonprofit exec Jen Kader (D), and social worker Hodan Hassan (D). There is no clear favorite and any of the five could prevail.

MN-LD-66B (D) is a D+29 seat covering northwestern and north-central St. Paul. Incumbent John Lesch (D) was recently fined $20K for campaign finance violations but should still be the prohibitive favorite over a perennial candidate.

Vermont Senate : Note: I have made an editorial decision to skip previewing the Vermont House because of the tiny district size and multi-member districts; the effort-to-interest ratio just isn’t there. The State Senate also uses multi-member districts of varying members.

VT-SD-Chittenden (D) is a 6-member D+22 district covering most of the Burlington area. The six incumbents, Tim Ashe (D), Phil Baruth (D), Debbie Ingram (D), Ginny Lyons Lyons (D), Christopher Pearson (D), and Michael Sirotkin (D), should all be favored over librarian Val Carzello (D), 2016 State House candidate Steve May (D), and a high school student.

VT-SD-Essex/Orleans (D) is a 2-member D-held R+2 district at the rural northeast corner of the state. Incumbents Robert Starr (D) and John Rodgers (DINO) should be favored over retired airline baggage handler Ron Horton (D), who doesn’t seem very serious. Republicans are amazingly not contesting either seat in this district.

VT-SD-Rutland (R) is a 3-member R-held D+1 district around (you guessed it) Rutland; one seat is open. Incumbent Brian Collamore (R) should easily take the first spot, and appointed incumbent David Soucy (R) is probably a slight favorite for the second. That leaves the three others, ex-State Rep. Jim McNeil (R), Poultney councilman Terry Williams (R), and ex-Rutland councilman Ed Larson (R), to likely duke it out for the third slot. There is no clear favorite between the three, and one of them could even upset Soucy. Democrats are amazingly enough not contesting any of these seats.

VT-SD-Washington (D) is a 3-member D+16 district around Montpelier; one seat is open. Incumbents Anthony Pollina (P/D) and Ann Cummings (D) should take the first two seats. That leaves four Democrats to square off for the third: Montpelier councilwoman and 2016 candidate Ashley Hill (D), ex-Marshfield councilman Andrew Perchlik (D), businessman Andrew Brewer (D), and attorney Theo Kennedy (D). Hill’s prior run probably makes her a slight favorite, but any of the four could prevail.

VT-SD-Windham (D) is a 2-member D+19 district around Brattleboro. Incumbents Jeanette White (D) and Becca Balint (D) should be favored over retired utility exec Wayne Estey (D).

Wisconsin Senate :

WI-SD-1 (R) is a D-held R+10 seat around the Door Penninsula in the state’s northeast, and rural areas south and east of Green Bay. Incumbent Caleb Frostman (D) narrowly picked this seat up in a special election this year and will have a tough fight for a full term. State Rep. Andre Jacque (R), who narrowly lost the special, should be favored over retired veteran Bill Nauta (R), who does not seem very serious.

WI-SD-19 (D) is an R+5 seat covering Appleton and Neenah. Two Democrats are vying to take on Senate President Roger Roth (R). There is no clear favorite in the primary between Outagamie County commissioner Dan Grady (D) and Outagamie County Dem chair Lee Snodgrass (D); the general will likely be competitive.

WI-SD-31 (D) is an open D-held R+3 seat covering most of the Eau Claire area and rural areas to the south along the Mississippi River. Three Democrats are facing off, 2000s-era ex-State Rep. Jeff Smith (D), Trempealeau County commissioner Jon Schultz (D), and farm bureau official Steve Boe (D). All three seem serious and there is no clear favorite. The primary winner will head to a potentially-competitive general in this historically-D but right-trending seat with 2014 nominee and farmer Mel Pittman (R), who lost by 5% four years ago.