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It was a warm July day and the skies were clear as Tom Mulcair slipped into the lake at his cottage in the Laurentians, north of Montreal.

The previous week had been busy: a visit to the Calgary Stampede with his wife Catherine, then a speech to the country’s aboriginal chiefs in Montreal.

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Now, the leader of the federal NDP needed to clear his mind.

As he swam, he alternated between front crawl and breast stroke. Steady, determined, purposeful. Some people run marathons. Mulcair goes for long swims.

The next day, in an interview with the Citizen, Mulcair was slightly boastful. “Two hours and fifteen minutes,” he said of the previous day’s swim. “Almost 5K.”

It’s an illustration of his character. Steady, not flashy. Tortoise, not hare. Focused, not fitful.

Which helps explain what, in July 2015, looks like a remarkable political story. The gradual rise of Tom Mulcair now stands as one of the most important political developments of the year. For the first time in Canadian history, a leader of the New Democratic Party could win a federal election.