A Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll released Tuesday night shows Republican John Faso leading Democrat Zephyr Teachout by a single point in the 19th Congressional District race.

Faso is up 43-42 over Teachout, the poll shows, while Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by five points.

“Both of these campaigns have been trying to positively define their own candidate, while also defining their opponent in increasingly negative ways,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said of the House race. “Nearly half haven’t yet heard from Teachout’s campaign and more than half still haven’t heard from Faso’s. In this hotly contested open seat, it is likely the ad wars will intensify and this race very well may be on its way to a photo finish.”

The 19th district covers the mid and northern reaches of the Hudson Valley, a chunk of the Mohawk Valley, the fringe of the Southern Tier and parts of the Capital Region that include part or of all of Rensselaer, Columbia, Greene, Schoharie and Montgomery counties.

There are no surprises in the regional breakdowns. Teachout leads in her home base of Ulster and Dutchess counties 51-36. Faso leads in his home territory in the Capital Region 52-33.

“We have always said the race is going to be a tight one,” Faso’s campaign manager Dain Pascocello said in a statement, noting the usual differences between Faso and Teachout.

In a fundraising email, Teachout campaign manager Kim Maier expressed a similar sentiment.

“This is incredible,” Maier said. “We knew our election would be close.”

That the congressional race results are that close nearly a month out from the election isn’t much of a surprise. Internal polling from both sides released publicly has shown either Teachout up by five points or Faso up by five points.

Equally telling of how evenly split the district’s politics are is that the generic congressional ballot question has yielded close results in the internal polling. Faso’s internal numbers in late August showed voters leaned Republican slightly on that question, according to Politico. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s numbers last week showed a dead heat (44-44).

Faso and Teachout are vying to replace the popular Chris Gibson, a Republican who is hanging it up after three terms to begin a career in academia (in the process dashing the hopes of New York Republicans who saw him as a strong contender for governor in 2018). That means they also are vying for votes from residents who have overwhelmingly re-elected one of the most bipartisan members of the House.

A look at voter registration numbers shows a near split in terms of voters’ political affiliations. Republicans have a roughly 2,300-voter enrollment advantage, while another 10,000 Conservative Party members and 114,577 unaffiliated voters make up the largest chunks of non-major-party registrants.

Tuesday night’s poll shows that that Republicans largely are all in for Faso (75-13) while Democrats are safely in Teachout’s corner (75-12). Independent voters are split 42-41 in favor of Faso.

Siena surveyed 678 likely voters in the district. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percent.

The full crosstabs are below:

Twcn_sny Ny19 Poll 092716