The Austin area is entering the third week of September without a taste of an autumnal, temperature-dropping front. But a weather disturbance traveling west across the Gulf of Mexico will bring a week of cloud coverage and possible precipitation that will at long last keep temperatures well short of triple digits.

The weather disturbance, which the National Hurricane Center gives a 10% chance of becoming a tropical storm, is expected to reach the Texas coast late Monday and deliver spotty showers across the coastal region and Central Texas over the course of the week.

According to the National Weather Service, the Austin area will see a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1 p.m. Monday with a high near 95 degrees. Those chances will increase to 40% Tuesday, and on Wednesday and Thursday rain chances will increase again to 50% with highs around between 92 degrees. Rain chances will then settle down to 20% and 30% for the end of the work week, with highs around 92 degrees and hitting a low of 72 at night.

The amount of rain that will fall across Central Texas will be variable, said weather service meteorologist Cory Van Pelt. On average, the region may receive a half-inch to an inch, although some areas could receive up to 3 inches while others remain dry.

“Most of the days it’s probably going to be like that,” Van Pelt said.

After the rain comes and goes, true fall-like temperatures will still be held at bay. Temperatures are expected to spring back up to the high 90s early next week. There is slight chance, Van Pelt said, of an autumn cold front arriving Sept. 25, but meteorological models have low confidence that front will materialize. The first official day of fall is Sept. 23.

“We have some indication of a front later in the month," Van Pelt said. "But in looking at the models ... there’s no indication that we’re going to just suddenly turn into fall, at least for the next 10 days.”

That front will likely be Central Texas’ only shot at enjoying lower temperatures before October.

“It’s not often we make it all the way through September without a noticeable front, but it’s happened before,” Van Pelt said.