Peter Zeidenberg

Opinion contributor

By now, Robert Mueller’s reticence is expected. The public has yet to hear him speak publicly since he was appointed as special counsel. Instead, Mueller has let his work speak for him, in the form of indictments, plea agreements and now in sentencing memos filed in connection with Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort. Taken in connection with the Cohen memo filed by the Southern District of New York, much more has been revealed about the status and nature of the Mueller investigation. And the revelations are ominous for President Donald Trump and his family.

To start with the most obvious: the Justice Department all but declared Trump to be guilty of campaign violations by conspiring with Cohen to buy the silence of Karen McDougal and Stormy Daniels, two women with whom the president had extra-marital affairs. According to the Southern District’s sentencing memo, “with respect to both payments," Cohen "acted in coordination and at the direction of" Trump.”

The prosecutors also noted that Cohen — and, by implication, Trump — “sought to influence the election … by orchestrating secret and illegal payments to silence two women who otherwise would have made public their alleged extramarital affairs with [Trump]. In the process, Cohen deceived the voting public by hiding alleged facts that he believed would have had a substantial effect on the election.”

Trump had to know Cohen lied to Congress

Of course, when one “coordinates and directs” the criminal conduct of another, that individual is also guilty of the crime — either as a co-conspirator or aider-and-abettor.

While it might be difficult to imagine a development worse for Trump than having his own Justice Department announce that he directed and orchestrated an illegal scheme to silence evidence of his adulterous affairs in order to deceive the public and increase his odds of winning the presidency, this was hardly the worst news for him in Friday evening’s pleadings.

To a considerable degree, the news about these payoffs were widely understood to have occurred. Trump’s various accounts of his foreknowledge notwithstanding, Cohen and records previously disclosed made clear to all but the most ardent Trump fans that Cohen was not acting on his own when he paid out hush money to McDougal and Daniels. (Indeed, months ago a tape recording of Cohen telling Trump about this payment became public.) In the world of Trump scandals, this conduct — sadly — barely moves the needle.

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Far more ominous is what Mueller filed regarding Cohen’s cooperation. This information is extremely threatening to both Trump and his family.

First, Mueller notes that Cohen’s lie to Congress that the Moscow Project terminated in January 2016 — “before the Iowa caucus and months before the very first primary" — was a lie about which Trump almost certainly was aware. The pleading emphasizes that Cohen publicly released his version of events in a written statement. Yet, as the filing notes, Cohen discussed the Moscow Project with Trump “well into the campaign.”

Thus, Mueller makes it clear that Trump had to know that Cohen’s testimony to Congress was a lie. We will soon learn whether Trump counseled Cohen to lie, which, like the campaign finance violation, would make Trump guilty as well. In addition, “Cohen described the circumstances of preparing and circulating his response to congressional inquiries.” That means that anyone who vetted Cohen’s statement and who knew about the truth of Moscow Tower project — a universe that likely includes Don Jr., who also testified to Congress — has serious criminal exposure.

But wait, there’s more.

Sleepless nights at the White House

We also learn from the Cohen pleading about how potentially lucrative the Moscow Project was expected to be — worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and that this business opportunity “required the assistance of the Russian government.” This could be a key element in establishing collusion —Trump needed Putin’s approval for the Moscow Project which would be “highly lucrative” for Trump. That goes a long way in explaining why Trump has never criticized Putin and why the lifting of Russian sanctions, something Putin desperately sought, was such a high priority for Trump.

As if that were not enough (and for any reasonable juror, it would be), we also learned that Cohen “provided relevant and useful information concerning his contacts with persons connected to the White House during the 2017-2018 time period.” “Relevant and useful” in the parlance of prosecutors means that Cohen provided credible information regarding criminal conduct by others in the administration. We do not yet know those names, but this is news that should cause sleepless nights for many White House officials.

And finally, Cohen provided Mueller with “useful information” regarding matters “core to its investigation.” The “core” of the Mueller investigation is, unquestionably, the question of collusion between the campaign, Trump and Russia. Mueller, whose team has been investigating this question for 19 months, has determined that Cohen has provided credible, useful information on that critical issue. And it is this development — not the campaign finance violations — that could well spell the end of this presidency.

Peter Zeidenberg, a partner at Arent Fox, spent 17 years as a federal prosecutor and was a deputy special counsel for the prosecution of Scooter Libby. Follow him on Twitter: @przeidenberg