There’s good reason Tim Kaine is riding high atop Hillary Clinton’s vice-presidential shortlist: When Republican battleground state insiders were asked to choose the strongest running mate for Clinton, Kaine ranked first.

That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 10 key swing states. Out of a list of seven possible picks as Clinton’s running mate, Kaine was the first choice of just over a third of GOP insiders.


The Virginia senator also rates high among Democratic insiders, with 29 percent saying this week they want Clinton to choose Kaine — twice as many as picked fellow Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the second-place vote-getter.

Democratic insiders touted Kaine’s breadth of experience. Before being elected to the Senate in 2012, Kaine served as governor and mayor of Richmond, the commonwealth’s capital. He also has significant political experience: He was President Barack Obama’s pick to chair the Democratic National Committee. Additionally, insiders said Kaine’s fluency in Spanish — which dates to his time teaching at a Catholic school in Honduras — could help the Clinton campaign appeal to Latino voters.

“Tim Kaine would be an extraordinary vice president,” said a New Hampshire Democrat, who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously. “A genuinely nice guy, he would bring much to the ticket and the administration. He is fluent in Spanish, trained in the law, he has served as a city mayor, governor and senator. America could not do better than having Kaine as our vice president.”

“He understands how the party operates, knows players nationally, is well-respected, and ready to do the job of president if needed,” added a Wisconsin Democrat.

Warren was the second choice among Democratic insiders: 15 percent said Clinton should pick the first-term Massachusetts senator, who has emerged as a champion of progressive economic policy.

Warren, insiders said, would help to bring the energy of Bernie Sanders’ supporters to the fold for the general election.

“Picking Elizabeth Warren would be an adrenaline shot in the arm of an otherwise tepid campaign,” said one Colorado Democrat.

Added an Ohio Democrat: “I think she needs to have someone on the ticket who is more progressive, to entice young people and progressives (i.e. Berniecrats).”

Sanders himself earned little support as a Clinton running mate: Only 2 percent of Democratic insiders said they wanted Clinton to pick Sanders, who has yet to officially concede the nomination.

The third-place finisher among Democratic insiders was Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julin Castro (13 percent), the Texan who became a rising star as mayor of San Antonio after speaking at the national party convention four years ago.

Since then, Castro has worked to build a national profile, including accepting the HUD post in Obama’s Cabinet.

“Julin Castro spoke at our state Democratic convention a few years ago,” said a Wisconsin Democrat, “and he was an excellent speaker with a great story, and he has that young, fresh, exciting vibe that Barack Obama showed us back in 2008.”

For some Democrats who picked Castro, their reasons were primarily demographic.

“Clinton will need the strong support of the black and brown communities to get elected, the same coalition that gave us Barack Obama,” said a Florida Democrat. “Mr. Castro is young, gifted and brown.”

Kaine, Warren and Castro are reported to be Clinton’s top choices, though others still remain in the mix with a month to go before the start of the national party convention in Philadelphia.

Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Cory Booker of New Jersey, also are rumored to be in contention, though both would have to be replaced in the Senate by their respective states’ Republican governors.

“Ideally, I'd like to see Sherrod Brown join Hillary as her VP pick because he would help shore up Bernie supporters, he has strong union ties, balances the trade issue and would be a good liaison with the House and Senate,” an Ohio Democrat said.

“Realistically, however, it's unlikely that Hillary would jeopardize the Senate by giving up a safe seat,” added the Democrat.

Democrats' next choice isn’t on Clinton’s shortlist: sitting Vice President Joe Biden (7 percent).

“There is no better way to unite the party and reignite some of the Obama magic than asking the VP to stay on board,” said a Florida Democrat. “[Clinton] won't do it, but she should.”

“Come on, how can you not love Uncle Joe?” asked a Colorado Democrat, rhetorically. “Arguably the strongest VP of the modern era, and he would slice [Donald] Trump to pieces on the campaign trail.”

Also earning nominal support among Democratic insiders were Labor Secretary Tom Perez (4 percent), Minnesota Sen. Al Franken (2 percent), Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (2 percent) and California Rep. Xavier Becerra (2 percent).

Given the choice of Kaine and six others, 34 percent of Republicans and nonpartisans in the swing states said the Virginia senator would be the strongest option for Clinton — including most GOP insiders in Kaine’s home state.

Kaine “sends a signal to moderates, independents and even some disappointed Republicans that the water is fine, come on in,” said a Virginia Republican. “He isn't necessary to carry Virginia, but he could be a very powerful validator.”

“Why go risky?” asked a North Carolina Republican. “Let the GOP corner the market on risky. Kaine is a safe, thoroughly vetted choice. As someone who worked a campaign against Kaine and lost, I would also note that Kaine's dirty little secret is that behind that ‘safe’ veneer, he's actually a really good retail politician.”

Insiders split on some of Clinton’s alternatives with Booker (14 percent), Brown (13 percent), Castro (13 percent) viewed by the other side as equally strong.

“Booker would excite African-Americans. Trump already excites Latinos,” said a Florida Republican.

“Trump organizes minorities for Hillary,” echoed a New Hampshire Republican who chose Brown. “Go for Ohio, where Trump has nothing going (no visits, no staff, and the antipathy of the Kasich folks) and close off the Electoral College.”

Just 8 percent of Republicans and nonpartisans said Warren, who has emerged as perhaps Trump’s most vocal Democratic critic, would be Clinton’s best bet.

Warren gives Clinton “progressive credibility and allows her to double down on the war on women rhetoric,” said an Ohio Republican.



These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this survey:

Colorado: Ryan Call, Laura Carno, Matt Chandler, Will Coyne, Adam Eichberg, Mark Ferrandino, Cole Finegan, Michael Fortney, Andrew Freedman, Ted Harvey, Craig Hughes, Owen Loftus, Pete Maysmith, Frank McNulty, Karen Middleton, Christopher Murray, BJ Nikkel, Josh Penry, Rick Ridder, Alan Salazar, Janice Sinden, Pat Steadman, Pat Waak, Steve Welchert, Taylor West, Roxane White, Rob Witwer

Florida: Fernand Amandi, Scott Arceneaux, JP Austin, Tim Baker, Dennis K. Baxley, Slater Bayliss, Dave Beattie, Wayne Bertsch, Ron Book, Pamela Burch Fort, Jose Calderon, Kevin Cate, Kelly Cohen, Gus Corbella, Brian Crowley, Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder, Justin Day, Judith Diaz, Nelson Diaz, John Dowless, Ryan Duffy, Jessica Ehrlich, Joe Falk, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Damien Filer, Marty Fiorentino, Rich Heffley, Nick Iarossi, David Johnson, Eric Johnson, Marian Johnson, Eric Jotkoff, Chris Korge, Jackie Lee, Susan MacManus, Beth Matuga, Fred Menachem, Jon Mills, Joe Mobley, Ben Pollara, Andrea Reilly, Steve Schale, April Schiff, Max Steele, Roger Stone, Richard Swann, Kevin Sweeny, Christian Ulvert, Steve Vancore, Ashley Walker, Andrew Weinstein, Andrew Wiggins, Ryan Wiggins, Rick Wilson

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Jerry Crawford, Sara Craig, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Ben Foecke, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Charlie Szold, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

Nevada: Mac Abrams, Greg Bailor, Barbara Buckley, Yvanna Cancela, Bob Cavazos, Linda Cavazos, Jim DeGraffenreid, Andrew Diss, Peter Ernaut, Ryan Erwin, Chip Evans, Jay Gerstema, Oscar Goodman, Ryan Hamilton, Dan Hart, Pat Hickey, Zach Hudson, Jeremy Hughes, Megan Jones, Lindsey Jydstrup, Adam Khan, Peter Koltak, Roberta Lange, Sam Liberman, Laura Martin, Michael McDonald, Chuck Muth, Erven Nelson, Kristen Orthman, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Jon Ralston, Andres Ramires, Emmy Ruiz, Scott Scheid, Mike Slanker, James Smack, Paul Smith, Jack St. Martin, Mari St. Martin, Daniel Stewart, Brendan Summers, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Michelle White, Ed Williams, Heidi Wixom

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

North Carolina: Don Davis, Francis X. De Luca, Anita Earls, Jonathan Felts, Tami L. Fitzgerald, Dylan Frick, Taylor Griffin, Robin Hayes, Morgan Jackson, Patsy Keever, Theresa Kostrzewa, Michael Luethy, Ray Martin, Thomas Mills, Melissa L. Reed, Chris Sgro, Paul Shumaker, Dee Stewart, Brad Thompson, Bruce Thompson, Charlie Wallin, Doug Wilson

Ohio: Jerry Austin, Greg Beswick, Matt Borges, Erica Bruton, Tim Burke, Janet Carson, Jai Chabria, Martha Clark, Bob Clegg, Damareo Cooper, Jo Ann Davidson, Michael Dawson, Bill DeMora, Cindy Demse, Kathy Dicristofaro, Katie Eagan, Michael Gonidakis, Wes Goodman, Joe Hallett, Ian James, Melissa Klide Hedden, David Leland, Nick Martin, Rhine McLin, David Pepper, Molly Shack, Mark R. Weaver

Pennsylvania: Chris Borick, Larry Ceisler, Valentino DiGiorgio, Jason Ercole, Dan Fee, Charlie Gerow, Marcel Groen, Leslie Gromis Baker, Mark Harris, Nan McLaughlin, Aubrey Montgomery, Christopher Nicholas, Nachama Soloveichik, David Sosar, Todd Stephens, Doc Sweitzer, David Thornburgh, Ray Zaborney

Virginia: Ray Allen, Sandra Brandt, Marc K. Broklawski, Patsy Brown, Janet Carver, John Cosgrove, Brian Coy, Doris Crouse-Mays, Tom Davis, Julie Dime, Abbi Easter, Mike Farris, John Findlay, Joe Fitzgerald, Sean Harrison, Margo Horner, Robert Hurt, Gaylene Kanoyton, Chris LaCivita, Sue Langley, Frank Leone, Robert G. Marshall, Tucker Martin, Ed Matricardi, Susan J. Rowland, Peter Snyder, Susan Swecker, Jo Thoburn

Wisconsin: Meg Andrietsch, Mary Arnold, Kevin Barthel, Mike Basford, Rebecca Bonesteel, Barry Burden, Terri Burl, Jim Camery, Patrick Guarasci, Robert Hansen, Gary Hawley, Marian Krumberger, Emily Nehring, Jason Rae, Brandon Scholz, John Zapfel

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.