What next for the EU withdrawal bill?

The Lords passed the Brexit bill on Wednesday night and after many months of bitter debate, it will eventually pass into law, without further amendment.

Has May seen off the Tory rebels?

No. Many of them are still determined to force new compromises on the future customs arrangement. Several have said they see this as the key battle, and one that makes compromising on the meaningful vote a price worth paying. However, the meaningful vote amendment is arguably the least controversial and poses the least threat to May’s premiership, so whether rebels will have the stomach for an even bigger fight remains to be seen.

What are the parliamentary battles to come?

May has promised to bring two more bills, the trade bill and the customs bill – its full name is the taxation (cross-border trade) bill – back to the House of Commons before the summer recess. Both Labour and the Tory rebels will seek to substantially amend those bills.

The key one is a cross-party amendment to the trade bill, tabled by Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke. It has the support of a significant number of other Tory MPs, whose names are on the amendment, including Antoinette Sandbach, Jonathan Djanogly, Bob Neill and Dominic Grieve.

The amendment would mandate the government to “take all necessary steps to implement an international trade agreement which enables the UK to participate after exit day in a customs union with the EU in the same terms as existed before exit day”.

What else has May got to navigate?

Parliament is just one of the thorns in May’s side over the coming months. Her cabinet remains deadlocked over a future customs solution, with working groups still fighting over what should be the government’s preferred option, a customs partnership with the EU or the technological solution, the so-called “max fac”.

May must also broker a Brexit white paper over the next few weeks that will satisfy David Davis, and stop him threatening to resign again. She will bring cabinet ministers together at Chequers in July to sign it off.

And what about Brussels?

Before the white paper is agreed, May has a tough EU summit next week where she will have to contend with a number of setbacks, including disagreement over how to square leaving the single market and customs union with plans for a customs backstop to prevent a hard border in Northern Ireland.

Hopes for a bespoke security deal with the EU to cover policing and intelligence have just been rebuffed by Michel Barnier, as have proposals for special data-sharing agreement.

Leaked draft conclusions from the June EU summit already say there has been “no substantial progress” made on the Irish backstop and call on member states to “step up preparedness at all levels and for all outcomes” – which means preparing for a “no deal” scenario.