This preview originally published May 5 and has since been updated.

“Sir, sir, I’m sorry. I’m sorry sir, but you need to see this. I think God wants you to see what’s happening right now.” Senior defensive back Matthew Kaufman had leaned over the bench and put his hands on Col. Pawlikoski’s shoulders. “We get this and it’s over! We win! Come see this!” Kaufman said. Kaufman helped the Colonel over the bench and into a crowd of Army players to see something new: Quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw pushed a pile two yards on 3rd and 1. No fumbles. No curses. They sang second. This wasn’t supposed to happen anymore. Sure, Army was going to eventually beat Navy again — but 7-5? This is just an aberration, right? This isn’t possible anymore. Army winning football games. Right? — Inside Army's top secret, years-long plan to finally ‘Beat Navy’

Army-West Point Black Knights Head coach: Jeff Monken (14-23, fourth year) 2016 record and S&P+ ranking: 8-5 (101st) Projected 2017 record and S&P+ ranking: 6-6 (102nd) Biggest strength: An efficient run game returns almost everybody. This should be a precise, consistent option attack. Biggest question mark: How vital were linebackers Jeremy Timpf and Andrew King to the resurgent Army defense? The Black Knights return some exciting attackers, but they were really good. Biggest 2017 game: Besides the obvious (vs. Navy, Dec. 9), I’ll say the trip to Tulane (Sept. 23) is big. It’s a relative tossup, and a win could lead to a 4-1 start. That would make bowl eligibility much easier to attain. Summary: Army won its first bowl since 2010, beat Navy for the first time since 2001, and won eight games for the first time since 1996 last year. Can an experience team avoid a hangover and make some more noise this fall?

Army was close. It was becoming slightly easier to see that. The Black Knights weren’t good in 2015, but they were competitive enough to lose seven games by one possession. Granted, a lot of those losses came to bad teams — 37-35 to Fordham, 17-14 to Wake Forest, 38-31 to Rice, 34-31 to Tulane — but some didn’t. They lost by just six points to Penn State and by four points to Navy.

(Plus, well, the average Army schedule features plenty of bad opponents. Beat them, and you’re getting somewhere.)

Army was slowly beginning to figure out the underdog playbook. The cadets slowed the game down to a crawl (110th in Adj. Pace in 2015), worked the ball semi-efficiently on the ground (65th in rushing success rate), moved the chains in short yardage (40th in power success rate), hit the occasional play-action bomb (third in passing IsoPPP), and basically attempted a nice, rousing game of Keep Away each Saturday. It’s the service academy way. Approaching the game in this manner has won Navy a lot of games, and while Air Force plays much more aggressively on defense, the recipe is relatively similar there, too.

What Army lacked in 2015 was any semblance of defensive effectiveness. The Knights weren’t awful against the run, but they were truly dreadful against the pass. And while slowing the tempo down cuts down on the number of overall possessions — therefore giving opponents fewer opportunities to pull away — you still have to make some stops eventually. Army couldn’t.

In 2016, Army could. Jeff Monken’s squad improved from 120th to 66th in Def. S&P+, and a couple of extra stops per game made all the difference. The Black Knights beat Rice by 17 this time around, beat Wake Forest by eight, and, of course, beat Navy by four. They upset Temple in the season opener and pummeled lesser FCS teams (Lafayette and Morgan State) and UTEP as well.

Sure, there were missteps — a late-game collapse against Buffalo, a 17-point loss to North Texas, a 38-point loss to Notre Dame — but Army found itself with just enough experience and confidence to follow the underdog playbook till the end and in the process put together quite the “first since” list.

First bowl bid (and bowl win) since 2010.

First win over Navy since 2001.

First eight-win season since 1996.

Army finally began clearing some hurdles again in 2016, but now comes the hardest part: continuing to do so. After 1996’s brilliant 10-win campaign, the Black Knights went 4-7. After going 7-6 and winning the Armed Forces Bowl in 2010, they went 3-9. And after last beating Navy in 2001, they proceeded to go 3-33 over the next three seasons.

The hangover effect is real. And it could technically happen again. But Army has the experience to perhaps avoid it this time around. The 2016 squad wasn’t some senior-laden outfit putting together a grand finale. The quarterback was a junior, the fullbacks sophomores, the leading slotback a freshman. The defense was mostly sophomores and juniors. the offensive line mostly juniors.

A year after a massive breakthrough, Army ranks in the top 40 in returning production. The Black Knights are favored (per S&P+ projections, which are generally unfriendly to service academies because of their focus on recruiting rankings and returning production) in six more games this fall and are minor underdogs in two more.

The script Monken has put together isn’t particularly unique, but it doesn’t need to be. After winning six games in his first two years in charge at West Point, he won eight last year. And now there are another couple of “first sinces” within reach: first back-to-back bowl campaigns since 1984-85 and first Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy since 1996.

2016 in review

2016 Army statistical profile.

The 2015 season was wrecked from the beginning; Army was basically four plays from a 5-0 start but made none of them and went 1-4. With bowl hopes already almost off the table, the Black Knights cratered briefly before rebounding to lose more close games down the stretch.

In 2016 came the direct opposite: Army burst out of the gates, upsetting Temple and beating Rice and UTEP with ease. The Knights then proceeded to nearly screw everything up.

First 3 games (3-0) : Avg. percentile performance: 60% (73% offense, 72% defense) | Avg. yards per play: Army 6.0, Opp 5.4 (plus-0.6) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: plus-35.2 PPG

: Avg. percentile performance: 60% (73% offense, 72% defense) | Avg. yards per play: Army 6.0, Opp 5.4 (plus-0.6) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: plus-35.2 PPG Next 7 games (2-5) : Avg. percentile performance: 26% (31% offense, 47% defense) | Avg. yards per play: Army 5.5, Opp 5.2 (plus-0.3) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-2.9 PPG

: Avg. percentile performance: 26% (31% offense, 47% defense) | Avg. yards per play: Army 5.5, Opp 5.2 (plus-0.3) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-2.9 PPG Last 3 games (3-0): Avg. percentile performance: 53% (60% offense, 67% defense) | Avg. yards per play: Army 6.6, Opp 4.5 | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: plus-15.0 PPG

There were actually two statistical giveaways for Army games in 2016:

8 Army wins : Turnover margin: plus-7 | Plays per game: Army 73.5, Opp 53.9 (plus-19.6)

: Turnover margin: plus-7 | Plays per game: Army 73.5, Opp 53.9 (plus-19.6) 5 Army losses: Turnover margin: minus-10 | Plays per game: Army 65.0, Opp 62.6 (plus-2.4)

When the game of Keep Away worked, Army won. When it didn’t, Army didn’t. Because of the nature of the option, Army committed a lot of fumbles in 2016, but the Black Knights still cut that number down a bit — from a nation’s worst 3.2 per game in 2015 to a merely bad 2.4 — and that made a difference. Meanwhile, the defense doubled its takeaways from 11 to 22. That made an even bigger difference.

The recipe will be the same this fall. And with quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw and his top seven running backs returning, the mistakes will probably be cut down even further.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Running an option offense allows you to be good without having the pieces to be good at everything. Army’s version was typical, maximizing efficiency (18th in success rate) and drive finishing (30th in points per scoring opportunity) while creating minimal big plays (124th in IsoPPP) and fumbling a lot (113th in expected turnover margin).

It was a worthwhile trade. Army avoided negative plays, again converted in short yardage, and wouldn’t let opponents have the ball.

Success at fullback was huge. 220-pound Andy Davidson and 225-pound Darnell Woolfolk, both sophomores at the time, combined to carry 23 times per game, average 5.2 yards per carry, and score 21 touchdowns. The key to the triple option is forcing opponents to mind the between-the-tackles option. If you are good enough at that, it makes it a million times easier to get a step on defenders on the outside.

With fullback success, Bradshaw was able to rush for at least five yards on 44 percent of his carries, and the slotbacks were able to hit the edge. In 14.6 carries per game, six slots averaged 7.3 yards per carry. Kell Walker and Jordan Asberry led the way with a combined 799 rushing yards on just 115 carries.

Davidson and Woolfolk are back. Five of the six slotbacks are back [update: make that four, as 326-yard rusher Tyler Campbell left for Elon]. Bradshaw is back, as is more-than-capable backup Chris Carter. Three-star sophomore Kjetil Cline could get involved this year.

Because of a combination of injury and general shuffling, Army couldn’t settle on a line in 2016; 10 different linemen started at least one game. That the Knights still managed to thrive in short yardage and keep opponents out of the backfield (fifth in stuff rate) was a major feat. And now eight of those 10 players return. Four have started at least 14 games in their respective careers.

Okay, so nearly every single component of an improved run game is back. What does that actually mean? Where is there still need for improvement?

The major need comes when Army falls behind schedule. Whereas Navy ranked 10th in both standard downs and passing downs success rate, Army ranked 17th and 58th. The Black Knights were a woeful 119th in Passing Downs S&P+, and while you might expect that of a triple option offense, Navy’s continues to work in those situations.

For this type of offense, passing downs success doesn’t just come from passing, but it definitely starts there. If opponents don’t have any reason to fear the aerial attack, they can just continue defending the option appropriately.

On third-and-4 or more, Bradshaw completed just 12 of 30 passes for 177 yards and two interceptions. He was able to do the “play-action bomb” thing well, completing 15 first-down passes for 363 yards and four scores, but the final step in the senior’s development will be figuring out how to convert one more third-and-long per game. Just imagine how well Keep Away will go if Army can do that.

That could be tricky without Army’s one big-play wideout. Edgar Poe gained 336 yards in his 16 receptions and was far more explosive than fellow wide receivers Jeff Ejekam (nine catches for 100 yards) or Christian Poe (10 for 133) [Update: Christian is also gone]. Be it Ejekam, sophomore Glen Coates, senior Jermaine Adams, or anyone else, Army receivers still need to get open deep occasionally.

Defense

If you can attack the line of scrimmage against the run and prevent big pass plays, you’re getting somewhere. Army was far from elite defensively, but the Black Knights had a set of awesome linebackers, and while there were some injuries, especially in the secondary, they were infrequent enough that Army got away with a pretty small rotation.

Only three defensive linemen, six linebackers, and six defensive backs made more than 6.5 tackles last season. That 10 of these 15 players return is encouraging. That two of the four shop-wrecking linebackers don’t is a concern. Jeremy Timpf and Andrew King combined for 24 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks and were by far the cadets’ leading tacklers overall. They leave a lot of production to replace.

The return of Alex Aukerman and Kenneth Brinson will obviously help. They combined for 22.5 TFLs and 11.5 sacks themselves, and backup Will linebacker James Nachtigal added five and 3.5, respectively. Brinson and Nachtigal were both three-star recruits, as was sophomore Ryan Parker. Sophomores Jake Ellington and Joe Ryan were high-twos. Army has recruited better at linebacker than at any other position, so maybe that upside will pay off.

If it does, the defense should fall into place. Seniors John Voit and Andrew McLean lead the way up front, and senior safety Rhyan England is a stalwart play-maker in the back. Army was drastically young at cornerback last season, but there appears to be some potential — Elijah Riley and Jaylon McClinton combined for 10 passes defensed and a pair of TFLs as freshmen, and Marcus Hyatt was a major role player as a sophomore.

Army was better against the run (48th in Rushing S&P+) than the pass (84th in Passing S&P+) last season, and it’s possible that gap shifts a bit with an experience secondary and potential, though not guaranteed, regression at linebacker. This level of returning production should result in a similar product to last year’s, but depth is still an unknown.

When you play so few guys, it’s hard to know what’s backing them up in case of injury. If pressed into action, perhaps former high-two- and three-star recruits will thrive. But we won’t know until it happens.

(It’s always strange to randomly insert real life into a football preview, but it’s impossible not to mention Brandon Jackson somewhere in this piece. The sophomore died in a single-car crash two games into the season, and the Black Knights rallied around his memory and his family. I can’t imagine the emotional toll that took on this team.)

Special Teams

That Army was able to flip its close-game fortunes was impressive considering the Black Knights’ special teams unit was actively working against them. Blake Wilson and Mitchell Howard combined to make only six of 12 field goals and boot touchbacks on only 21 percent of kickoffs. J.D. Mote and Nick Schrage combined to average just 35.9 yards per punt. Elijah St. Hilaire and Tyler Campbell averaged just 17.7 yards per kick return. Malik McGue showed efficiency potential in punt returns but fumbled five times.

Army ranked a well-earned 128th out of 128 in Special Teams S&P+. The Black Knights proved that you can still win games with awful special teams, but that’s not something you have to prove. Some contributors return, so maybe there’s some consistency to be found. But maybe not — this unit was awful in a way that went far beyond inexperience. Wanted: some new legs.

2017 outlook

Army is finding its niche with Monken in charge. The Black Knights broke through in 2016 with a lineup far from senior-heavy, and they did so with clear, obvious areas for future improvement — passing downs offense, pass defense, special teams, etc. Recruiting has improved a bit, returning production is high, and the cadets appear well suited to further mastery of the underdog script.

The schedule is still pretty light, but it appears to get at least a little bit more difficult this fall. Last year the Black Knights played two FCS opponents and three teams among FBS’ bottom 10 in S&P+. The bottom feeders are there, but there’s only one FCS foe, and four opponents are projected 71st or better.

This could be a situation a lot like last year’s, where the Knights were .500 late and needed late triumphs to become bowl eligible. Or they could engineer a strong start instead. It all depends on the relative tossups — they have five games with win probability between 40 and 54 percent. With overachievement or strong close-game execution, a 6-1 start is possible. That’ll take the suspense right out of the equation.

Regardless, it’s great to have Army back. College football is more fun with three different service academy teams serving as a pain in the butt and proving that you can win games with two-star recruits and a disciplined system.

Monken brought the Black Knights back to the party; now we get to find out if they can stay there this time. Signs point to yes.

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