While following and writing about conditions in Puerto Rico during the past year since Hurricane Maria, I’ve also been paying close attention to Puerto Ricans in Florida, where most evacuees landed, swelling the total number of Puerto Ricans in that state. They have been the focus of much news speculation, and also of scholarly study.

From El Centro:

Data Center The Puerto Rican population grew in the U.S. from 5.4 million in 2016 to 5.5 million in 2017. Of note is the fact that 2017 is the first time Florida becomes the state of the union with the most Puerto Ricans, according to estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau in its yearly American Community Survey. This can be attributed to three factors: migration from Puerto Rico, internal migration from other U.S. states (especially from the Northeast), and natural growth of the population (greater birth than deaths).

Pew has been following voter registration and produced a piece titled “Hispanic voter registration rises in Florida, but role of Puerto Ricans remains unclear”:

The number of Hispanic registered voters in Florida has increased 6.2% since the 2016 presidential election, to a record 2.1 million people. This is slightly faster growth than during the 2014 and 2010 midterm cycles, which saw 4.6% and 5.2% increases over the prior presidential election year, respectively, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of Florida state government data. Hispanics now make up a record 16.4% of Florida’s registered voters, up from 15.7% in 2016. The number of Hispanic registered voters has grown more than three times as fast as the overall number of registered voters in the past two years (6.2% growth vs. 1.8% growth, as of Aug. 31). Floridians had until Oct. 9 to register to vote, so the number of registered voters for this midterm cycle is likely to have increased further since August. (While the growth in Hispanic voters this year exceeds that of the past two midterm election years, it still trails the growth in recent presidential election years.) Puerto Ricans have been the state’s fastest-growing Hispanic-origin group over the past decade, and thousands more arrived from the island following Hurricanes Maria and Irma in 2017 – part of a broader movement of island residents to the U.S. mainland in recent years. Between 2005 and 2016, about a third of these migrants settled in Florida, in an area between the Orlando and Tampa Bay metro areas known as the Interstate 4 corridor. The state’s Puerto Rican population now rivals that of New York, the main destination of the mid-20th century’s migration from the island. However, it is unclear to what extent recent migration from Puerto Rico accounts for the uptick in Hispanic registered voters this election cycle. The state’s data on Hispanic registered voters don’t include the origins of these voters (Puerto Rican, Cuban, Dominican, etc.) – and data on eligible voters, as well as registered voters at the county level, tell a mixed story.

One of the surveys I paid close attention to was conducted back in May, by Dr. Eduardo Gamarra, a political science professor at Florida International University, and his colleague Dr. Jorge Duany.

Gamarra — who focuses on Latin American and Caribbean affairs and founded Latino Public Opinion Forum at the School of International and Public Affairs — said the poll was conducted May 10-20 with live callers speaking to 1,000 respondents by telephone. The survey has margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, which means something that receives 50 percent lies in a range of 46 percent to 54 percent. The report was prepared for release at the “Nuestro Futuro” conference at FIU about the future of Puerto Ricans on the island and in the state.

(The link to the full survey is here.)

What impressed me was the fact that they focused “on four different groups of Puerto Ricans who came to Florida in different time periods,” clearly understanding that there are differences within Florida’s Puerto Rican population.

An influx of Puerto Ricans to Florida began in 2010 and intensified since Hurricane Maria devastated the island in 2017. As U.S. citizens, Puerto Ricans have the right to register and vote, and they’ve become a highly sought after group of voters in 2018. An estimated 1.2 million Puerto Ricans now live in Florida, a population that rivals the number of Cubans, who have historically been enormously influential in Florida politics, said Eduardo Gamarra...“That has some long-term consequences in our state, politically speaking, especially if they turn out to vote,” Gamarra said.

I want to stress his last comment: “especially if they turn out to vote.” We need to make sure that there are plenty people on the ground helping to make that happen.

Especially in light of these data from the survey:

The survey shows many Puerto Ricans have long-term commitments to staying in the mainland U.S. The poll found 56 percent said they plan to stay indefinitely. Just 3 percent said they planned to stay less than a year. Another 41 percent said they didn’t know. The pollsters also reported that 43 percent saying they would not return to live in Puerto Rico, with 32 percent saying they would and 25 percent who didn’t know. Many have registered to vote. Of those surveyed, 75 percent said they’d registered to vote in the U.S. Among those who have registered, the overwhelming majority has maintained the Puerto Rican alliance with the Democratic Party. The poll found 57 percent said they’d registered as Democrats, 12 percent as Republicans and 18 percent as independents. Another 13 percent responded that they weren’t sure, which Gamarra said could be a sign that people were busy and not sure or that the distinctions concerning the names of political parties in the mainland U.S. weren’t clear to respondents. The partisan breakdown was similar for almost everyone who said they came to the U.S. before 2017. But among those who came to the U.S. in 2017 and 2018, a much smaller share — 39 percent — said they registered as Democrats. Another 7 percent registered Republicans, 25 percent as independents and 29 percent said they didn’t know.

In September, a federal judge also contributed to enhancing increased Puerto Rican and other Spanish-speaker voter participation by ordering Florida officials to provide sample ballots in Spanish.

A federal judge in Florida has ordered Secretary of State Kenneth Detzner to mandate that local election officials comply with the Voting Rights Act of 1965 by providing sample ballots in Spanish. Plaintiffs asked for the materials because many people moved from Puerto Rico to Florida after Hurricane Maria and hope to cast ballots in the November general elections. In a scathing ruling on Friday, U.S. District Judge Mark Walker wrote, "As this Court notes with tiresome regularity, Defendant Detzner is Florida's 'chief election officer' " and must therefore ensure the enforcement of election laws, adding that "There is no asterisk after the provision stating 'except for the Voting Rights Act of 1965.' " Detzner had argued that he has no relevant power over the county supervisors of elections.

Contrary to opinions I’ve heard expressed, Puerto Ricans in Florida are registering—and most are registering as Democrats, thanks to the efforts of some of the groups featured below:

x 10/11/18: Tuesday was last day register vote in Florida, over 57,000 Latinos registered in Central Florida by Mi Familia Vota, Hispanic Federation, two civic engagement organizations working under coalition of Respeta Mi Gente, empower Puerto Rican voters https://t.co/bVwhvFJYy3 Ã¢ÂÂ Charlotte L Coolidge (@C_Coolidge) October 16, 2018

With registration over, groups in Florida aim to mobilize Latino voters, especially Puerto Ricans

With voter registration now closed in Florida, Latino groups are working to galvanize Puerto Rican and other Latino voters in a state with a number of key races that have the potential to flip parties and help determine who controls the House. Tuesday was the last day to register to vote in Florida and over 57,000 Latinos were registered in Central Florida by Mi Familia Vota and the Hispanic Federation, two civic engagement organizations working under the coalition of Respeta Mi Gente which seeks to empower Puerto Rican voters. Additionally, UnidosUS, a non-profit national organization, registered over 48,000 people in South Florida and Central Florida combined. Both areas have a heavy concentration of Latinos. It was the largest non-partisan effort to register voters in the state during this election cycle. ... Latinos are energized during this election cycle, according to different Latino groups.“We witnessed voter turnout during the primary elections at rates seen during presidential elections,” said Nancy Batista, Florida state director of Mi Familia Vota. The group registered 30,000 people to vote this year and in comparison, they registered just 3,000 more prior to the 2016 presidential election, when people are generally more enthusiastic about voting than in midterm elections. The Hispanic Federation registered 16,000 prior to the 2016 presidential election; they registered 27,000 this midterm year. “What we’re seeing is tremendous enthusiasm,” said Betsy Franceschini, senior state director for Florida at the Hispanic Federation.

x Puerto Ricans have become an integral part of Florida politics and are now set to be a driving force for the November 6th elections! #RespetaMiGente #BoricuaVota https://t.co/ipvb8L3qJS pic.twitter.com/xn7mM50Pnu Ã¢ÂÂ Alianza For Progress (@AlianzaProgress) October 15, 2018

Florida is a key swing state, which is why it gets attention. However, it is important to examine other key areas where there are large Hispanic voting blocks as well as Latino Democrats who are running for office.

Pew has just released new data:

x About seven-in-ten (71%) Hispanic eligible voters in the U.S. lived in just six states in 2017 Ã¢ÂÂ California, Texas, Florida, New York, Arizona and Illinois. https://t.co/yIoArFynY1 pic.twitter.com/ccAEeploFT Ã¢ÂÂ Pew Research Fact Tank (@FactTank) October 16, 2018

In listing “Key facts about Latinos in the 2018 midterm elections,” their data points to a glaring issue which is not exclusive to Latinos: low turnout and participation in the 18 to 35 age group.

The Latino voter turnout rate in midterm elections has declined since 2006. In 2014, the turnout rate among Latino eligible voters dropped to a record low of 27.0%. (White and Asian eligible voters also had record-low turnout rates.) Despite this, a record 6.8 million Latinos voted. Young Latinos have contributed to this low voter turnout. In 2014, just 16.0% of eligible Latinos ages 18 to 35 voted, compared with 36.2% of Latinos 36 and older. At the same time, younger Latinos make up a large share of the Hispanic electorate. About 43.5% of all Hispanic eligible voters in 2018 are 18 to 35 years old, compared with 30.6% of all U.S. eligible voters. Hispanics also account for a significant share of young eligible voters nationwide. Hispanics make up about a fifth (18.1%) of all U.S. eligible voters ages 18 to 35, but just 10.4% of eligible voters ages 36 and older.

This means we need to pay more attention—not less—to young voters, and groups who are doing the outreach and organizing. Let’s look at Texas.

Check out Jolt Initiative:

Jolt Initiative is a non-profit organization that increases the civic participation of Latinos in Texas to build a stronger democracy and ensure that everyone’s voice is heard. Jolt knows that our democracy works best when everyone gets a seat at the table. That’s why Jolt builds the leadership capacity of millennial Latinos to mobilize their peers to action.

Executive director Cristina Tzintzun Ramirez‏ @TzintzunCris was a 2017 J.M.Kaplan Fund Innovation Prize awardee:

x YouTube Video

Project Overview

The Lone Star state is home to the second-largest immigrant community in the country, yet in the last Texas legislative session, more than 80 anti-immigrant bills were proposed, from stripping in-state tuition for undocumented students to proposals that would deny citizenship to the Texas-born children of undocumented parents. In the face of such hostility, Jolt seeks to shift the narrative on immigration, defending the rights of immigrant and Latino families in Texas, while simultaneously working to develop a culture of civic engagement through which the state’s 10.8 million Latinos can feel they have a meaningful stake in their communities. Because 37% of the state’s Latino population is under age 17, Jolt seeks to achieve its goals by organizing Latino youth at high school and college campuses to advocate for stronger immigrant protections. By conducting non-partisan voter registration drives (Latinos vote the least of any ethnic group), lifting up Latina voices, and other peer-to-peer organizing efforts, Jolt invests in the long-term leadership of young people needed to shift the state and country toward a more inclusive and representative democracy.

They have just released a comprehensive report:

x (Now Live)

We Are Texas: An Analysis Of Young Latinos In The Lone Star State



link: https://t.co/cPjPFy1GUZ#WeAreTexas pic.twitter.com/0xVZg4sunx Ã¢ÂÂ Jolt Initiative (@joltinitiative) October 17, 2018

x Healthcare for all is top political motivator for younger Texas Latinos, "We Are Texas" by @joltinitiative study finds https://t.co/9qpdxLMToE Ã¢ÂÂ Antonio (@AntonioArellano) October 17, 2018

A study of young Texas Latinos found that health care for all is top political motivator:

Health care for all is the political issue motivating the largest share of younger Texas Latinos, according to a newly released report. Jolt Initiative, the political arm of a Texas group that is trying to improve voter participation among young Latinos in the Lone Star State, issued their findings on the study, “We Are Texas.” They found 29 percent of Hispanics between the ages of 18 and 44 named health care as the top issue to get them involved politically, closely followed by a path to citizenship for immigrants such as DACA recipients (28 percent). Other motivating issues were racial and ethnic equality and justice and more jobs and economic prosperity.

This is an uphill struggle, and no one should expect miracles overnight, which Houston Chronicle journalist Olivia P. Tallet points out in “The Latino vote: A Texas tale of growth and misconceptions.”

She pulls no punches in her opening paragraph:

It’s a familiar story line making an encore in Texas elections: Latinos are center stage as the protagonists who will lift a “blue wave” of Democratic candidates into office and disrupt a half century of Republican dominance. But after the votes are counted, the discussion turns to an anticlimactic disparagement in which Hispanics, again, become the scapegoat of the Democratic Party’s unrealized election hopes.

She points to changes, however:

This year, Latino voters have Democrat ex-sheriff Lupe Valdez at the top of the ballot running against Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. Two other woman candidates, state Sen. Sylvia Garcia from Houston and Veronica Escobar from El Paso, are running as Democrats and aspire to become the first Latinas from Texas to represent their state in the U.S. Congress. And results of the mobilization are beginning to show in areas such as Harris County. Earlier this year, Hispanic voters here set a record for their turnout in primary mid-term elections. Their turnout was at least 85 percent higher than in any other non-presidential primary since 2002, and more significantly, 164 percent higher than in the last mid-term primary in 2014, according to data of Spanish-surname voters provided by Hector de León, director of voter outreach of the Harris County Clerk’s office.

And she includes a warning that Democrats should make note of:

The number of progressive-leaning Latino organizations working to mobilize the Texas electorate is increasing. While Texas Hispanics have been usually ignored by parties as non-worthy investments in a solidly Republican state, they are now appearing in focus among priority regions. “My biggest lesson in 2016 is that neither party is truly dedicated to enfranchising the Latino community,” said Maria Teresa Kumar, president and CEO of Voto Latino, one of the national organizations working to mobilize Latino voters in Texas, particularly millennials and residents with low-election participation.

The article ends on a positive note:

Carlos Duarte, Texas director of Mi Familia Vota (My Family Votes), said besides implementing innovations in social media and smartphone applications, the organization is reaching out in person. “We have been going classroom by classroom in high schools and community colleges to educate students in understanding the connections between the things they care about and the power of using their vote to elect officials that can do something about it,” Duarte said. “The big news,” he said, “is that, after we have been building the base working with Latinos for years, Texas is now on the map of nonprofits paying attention to them and investing resources. I have never seen this kind of enthusiasm here before.”

Do we need to do better? Yes.

x Some Highlights of @NALEO tracking poll for Latino voters in TEXAS:

22% favorable to Trump

72% plan to vote Dem for Congress

42% have been contacted to vote

58% have NOT been contacted to vote

60% say Dems doing good Hispanic outreach

19% say GOP doing good Hispanic outreach Ã¢ÂÂ Latino Decisions (@LatinoDecisions) October 17, 2018

Getting voters registered and to the polls goes hand-in-hand with supporting more Latinos to run for office.

Latino Victory is doing just that:

The Latino Victory Fund is a progressive political action committee working to grow Latino political power by increasing Latino representation at every level of government. From school boards, to the Senate, to the White House, Latino Victory identifies, recruits, and develops candidates for public office while building a permanent base of Latino donors to support them. LV partners with leading organizations to shape the public discourse to reflect the growing influence of the Latino community and build cross-constituency alliances that make us stronger. Latino Victory’s president, Cristóbal J. Alex, just posted this video op-ed (there is no transcript, but there are captions):

x YouTube Video

Latino Victory has an amazing list of candidates. Please check out the link. I’m personally elated that so many Latinas are running.

x 2018 Is the Year of the Latina https://t.co/TxYOsE8oo4 via @byshondaland Ã¢ÂÂ Deltareviewer (@Deltareviewer) August 27, 2018

2018 is being hailed as the Year of the Latina. This election season, we have the chance to more than double the number of Latinas in Congress.

One reason this year is extra special: It’s the Year of the Latina. Two Latina congressional candidates, Sylvia Garcia and Veronica Escobar, have already won the Democratic nomination in safe Democratic districts, so unless something really weird happens, they’re going to Congress as the first and second Latinas elected from the Lone Star State. (If you ever think you don’t have to vote in primaries because you live in a safe blue district? Let Texas be a lesson to you. I’m looking at you, L.A. and NYC. How about a lady mayor already?) And it’s not just Texas that’s promising: Latino Victory Project recently announced a new slate of five Latina candidates they've endorsed, including congressional candidates Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida, Antoinette Sedillo Lopez and Xochitl Torres Small in New Mexico, and Virginia Madueño in California, as well as Arizona attorney general candidate January Contreras. In fact, out of the 16 candidates they’re backing in 2018, a full 10 are Latina — and there are even more Latinas running for office beyond that. Currently, Latinas are one of the most underrepresented groups in Congress. There are only 10 of them there: one in the Senate, nine in the House. There are just as many dudes named Steve serving in Congress as there are Latinas. (Don’t look it up, it’ll only depress you.)

x I spoke to @vgescobar about her historic run from El Paso to Capitol Hill and why she should be the first Latina to represent Texas. This is my first for @Refinery29! Thanks to @AshleyAlese @andreagonram https://t.co/n9dBf506TU Ã¢ÂÂ Frances SolÃÂ¡-Santiago (@frances_sola) October 15, 2018