Sometime shortly after midday on Sunday, it is predicted the men’s record for the London marathon will be smashed. It would be a memorable way of marking this year’s race, which will see the amount raised for good causes since it began in 1981 edge beyond £1bn.

If however the record is untroubled, then this may be good news for Mo Farah, the man hundreds of thousands flocking to London have come to see and who is embroiled in controversy over a disputed incident involving a brawl in an Ethiopian hotel.

Most experts agree that, despite his remarkable conversion from track champion to marathon runner, Britain’s Sir Mo will be left trailing by the current London record holder, Kenya’s Eliud Kipchoge, whose time of 2:01:39, set in Berlin last year, saw the previous world record obliterated by an astonishing 78 seconds.

Farah concedes he is the underdog. “To be honest it would be an amazing achievement [to beat Kipchoge]. My aim is to win the London Marathon one day, that is my task, but you can’t take anything for granted because Eliud is a great athlete and the world record holder.”

Experts say a slower race, however, might just give Farah, famous for his kick in the later stages of track events, a shot at glory. It would represent a remarkable coup because, even though the bookies have Farah as second favourite, a handful of other runners have beaten his personal best of 2:05:11, set when he won the Chicago marathon last October.

“It’s a really strong field, the conditions look good, you’ve got the best marathon runner of all time and I think Eliud’s really going to go for it,” said Andrew Jones, professor of applied physiology at Exeter University, who was part of the team that helped train Kipchoge for Nike’s sub-two-hour marathon attempt last year, a target he narrowly failed to beat by 26 seconds. “We’ll see a massive course record at worst and, you never know, we could see a world record.”

Kipchoge’s long-time coach, Patrick Sang, agreed that London could see something special today.

“Since he set the world record in Berlin last September, we’ve taken enough rest, prepared like normal and I think he’s in almost the same condition as when he came to London last year and also in Berlin. If all goes well, he should be able to better his (London) course record of 2:03:05 from 2016.”

Victory for Farah, however, would bring a triumphant end to a rollercoaster week following his bizarre row with the great runner Haile Gebrselassie, over events at a now infamous training camp outside Addis Ababa.

Farah’s decision to use a press conference to attack Gebrselassie is in contrast with the less flamboyant Kipchoge, who still does his toilet cleaning duties at training camps.

“You couldn’t imagine Eliud getting himself in the spat Mo has got himself into,” said Jones, former lead physiologist with UK Athletics, who has watched Farah progress since he was a junior athlete. “But some athletes it wouldn’t bother at all. Ronnie O’Sullivan in the snooker, he tends to like having a bit of a furore around him, [they] need something else to motivate them. I’m not saying Mo is like that but some people, it inspires them.”

Certainly Kipchoge does not believe Farah will be affected. “Mo can beat me, others can beat me,” he said before paying tribute to how quickly his rival was progressing. “I’m really surprised Mo is learning so fast.”

A Farah victory in an event that 41,000 runners will start would please his home crowd. “This event brings the community together,” said event director Hugh Brasher. “It is Britain’s biggest street party.”

Whether the capital has any chance of celebrating a Farah win, though, would largely come down to the pace, Jones suggested. “If for some reason the pace was really slow then that does give Mo more of a chance. If you end up with a few of them coming down the Mall, the closer they get to home, the nearer Mo is in contention, the better the chance he has.”