INDIANAPOLIS – Years of inferior recruiting classes might have finally caught up to Butler basketball.

The Bulldogs, 15-13 overall and 6-9 in the Big East, have their last regular-season chance for a signature victory in Saturday’s game at Villanova (21-8, 12-4).

Villanova has been a model for how to build a championship team without top-rated recruits. From 2012 through 2017, its recruiting classes never ranked higher than 27th nationally, according to 247 Sports.

Yet during that time, the Wildcats brought in seven players who have gone on to the NBA: Ryan Arcidiacono, Daniel Ochefu, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Omari Spellman. Butler has not had an NBA player since the 2008 recruiting class featured Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack.

In rankings of Big East classes, starting in 2014, Butler was seventh, ninth, seventh, ninth and ninth out of 10 teams. Its best national ranking was 47th.

“It’s not the most talented roster,” said Brian Snow, a recruiting analyst for 247Sports. “And losing an alpha in Kelan Martin the way they did certainly hurt. Now, does it need to get better? Yeah.

“I’m not going to sit here and say recruiting rankings are perfect. But there’s a good correlation with them and overall success.”

Butler success has always been more fragile than widely recognized. The program has compensated in two ways: Making the whole greater than the sum of the parts, and luring transfers.

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“You have to have talented enough guys that fit,” Butler coach LaVall Jordan said. “That’s the deal. You look back and reflect, there’s been a lot of talented guys who fit and with the humility to buy into roles.

“There’s not a ready-made player. We’ve always been a developmental program.”

Fragility of the program can be underscored in this way: If Rotnei Clarke had not transferred from Arkansas, the Bulldogs would have followed back-to-back Final Fours by missing NCAA tournaments in 2012, 2013 and 2014. They made it in 2013, their sole season in the Atlantic 10, because Clarke was a piece that made the whole greater than the sum of its parts.

Butler’s Sweet 16 team in 2017 needed transfers Tyler Lewis, Avery Woodson and Kethan Savage. Farther back, transfers Mike Green and Pete Campbell rejuvenated the program after NCAA misses in 2004, 2005 and 2006.

Sophomore forward Jordan Tucker is the most highly rated prospect ever to end up at Butler, but he did not arrive out of high school. Tucker (Duke) and Paul Jorgensen (George Washington) are now two of the Bulldogs’ top scorers, and both are transfers. Another transfer, Bryce Nze (Milwaukee), becomes eligible next season.

Jordan acknowledged there is not as much time to evaluate transfers as high schoolers, comparing the process to “speed dating.” The right fit, he said, overrides everything else.

Butler was behind new peers in resources and facilities when joining the Big East, but recruiting remains a greater challenge. Transfers have patched potholes. And the Bulldogs aren’t in the A-10 or Horizon League any more.

“You can hide a little bit when you have a roster that isn’t built well or isn’t that talented. Because you’re still more talented than everyone else,” Snow said. “Now you’re going to a road game at Georgetown, not George Washington. You’re going on the road to Marquette, not Milwaukee. You’ve got to have horses to win those games.”

One example of the talent it takes:

In 2016, Butler had two second-team All-Big East selections, Martin and Roosevelt Jones, plus Kellen Dunham, who was on the 2015 first team, and Andrew Chrabascz, who was on the 2017 first team. Those Bulldogs, with four such all-league players, were once 3-6 in the Big East and barely made it to that NCAA tournament.

In 2019, Butler has perhaps one player, Kamar Baldwin, who ever will make an All-Big East team.

Going from Brad Stevens to Brandon Miller to Chris Holtmann to Jordan – four coaches in six seasons -- inevitably affected recruiting. Relationships can take years to build, and Jordan was behind when hired in June 2017. He also had few scholarships available – two in 2018, two in 2019, two in 2020.

Stevens’ last recruiting class, in 2013, was ranked 46th nationally but became a bust. The least-touted prospect was Chrabascz. The others – Elijah Brown, Nolan Berry, Rene Castro – all transferred.

Holtmann’s 2017 recruiting class once had five prospects and was ranked 33rd nationally. It has not turned out favorably.

From that group, Butler has one starter, point guard Aaron Thompson, and one role player, Christian David. Jerald Gillens-Butler, now injured, has barely played at all. Kyle Young (Ohio State) and Cooper Neese (Indiana State) went elsewhere and are part-time starters for their respective teams.

Butler has two 2019 signees, Khalif Battle of Trenton, N.J., and 6-10 John-Michael Mulloy of Carmel. Even with just those two, the class is ranked fifth in the Big East.

Jordan said there is a “great awareness across the country” of Butler’s program and the kind of players who thrive in the culture. In that regard, Butler has an identity that others don’t.

Butler is located in the middle of the Big Ten’s footprint, and it has been difficult to out-recruit the Big Ten for elite prospects, especially in Indiana. Jordan cited the example of one Marion County player who might have picked Butler but wanted to leave home for college.

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On the other hand, the longer Butler plays in the Big East, the wider its recruiting reach becomes. Butler would not have attracted East Coast players such as Bryce Golden, Jorgensen, Tucker, Thompson and Battle if not for the Big East.

“It’s the Big East and it’s Butler, and people know that,” Jordan said. “There’s an awareness.”

The next recruiting class is not critical to Butler in the short term but will be thereafter. If the Bulldogs don’t return to the NCAA tournament in 2020, something is wrong.

They can start Baldwin and Thompson in the backcourt, Joey Brunk or Nze at center, and Sean McDermott, Tucker and Battle as wings. There is depth beyond those seven.

After that?

“They’ve got to find a way to bring in another Top 100 player and keep replenishing the roster with talent,” Snow said.

Contact IndyStar reporter David Woods at david.woods@indystar.com or call 317-444-6195. Follow him on Twitter: @DavidWoods007.

BUTLER AT VILLANOVA

Tipoff: 2 p.m., Saturday, Wells Fargo Arena, Philadelphia.

TV/Radio: FOX/WFNI-1070 AM, 107.5-FM.