The FACEIT Major London begins today with the Challenger Stage, where the eight teams coming out of the four minors battle in a field containing the eight teams who failed to become Legends at the previous major, ELEAGUE Major Boston. The eight teams who make it through this Swiss System formatted portion of the tournament, this time utilising the Buchholz system adaptation for seeding between rounds, will earn a top 16 finish at a minimum and contend in another Swiss System for Legends spots.

In this preview I look at the teams I see progressing and those who will have to return to the Minor qualification process for next year’s Katowice major.

3:0 – Clean form

Astralis

The Danes are too good to lose any maps at this point in the tournament, especially with this field. Their map pool is so deep that they hold all the power in the veto phase against every single team they will face during this portion of the major. Their wins on train at Dreamhack Masters Stockholm are the overlooked silver lining of the event. While they failed to win the title, a setback to be sure, they were tested twice on train and came through on both instances. When one considers that’s a map the team had as its least played, along with typical permanent ban cache, it shows how ludicrous Astralis’ map pool to draw from is.

Throw in that they may be a little warier of dust2, having been undefeated on it prior to losing the opener of the final on it, and Astralis have the hunger, consistency and background to cruise through this stage of the major.

Team Liquid

North America’s true hope for this major has a lot going in its favour. They have the talent, often a justified reason behind the intense scrutiny they face if they place anywhere less than near the top; there is legitimate experience, with every player having played at majors now and a number with experience in the play-offs; and there is a solid map pool which should survive most potential match-ups.

Team Liquid is one of the few top teams, results telling you they should be A Class but their peaks screaming their S Class status, that can fall flat and be upset by a wider-than-it-should-be range of teams. With that said, they are supposed to win all these games, so your guess on which could be the tricky one is as good as anyone’s.

3:1 – Overcoming a minor hurdle

North

The champions of Dreamhack Masters Stockholm looked every bit a revitalised team, beating some of the very best teams in Counter-Strike in Bo3 play and across numerous maps. New recruit niko didn’t wow anyone statistically, but seemed suited to his role as entry fragger and IGL MSL bizarrely walked on water with the AWP to become the MVP of the tournament, despite facing a murderer’s row of device, s1mple and oskar en route.

North had a number of strong narrative factors at their back along the way to that win. Firstly, the player break preceding the tournament has notoriously shaken up the standings for the first events following it in all three years we’ve had it now. Secondly, bringing in a new map, which also saw some of their map pool improved, grants them the honeymoon phase status of a quality team who the opposition must adapt to initially.

I’m not unduly invested in notions of North success here, but they have a solid set of players, all seemingly in good form; a strong map pool which is still not entirely defined for their opponents; and an IGL who knows how to grind out wins. You will see North playing in the top 16.

Virtus.pro

Already some eye-brows will have moved closer to the ceiling, but I think you will see VP contend for the Legends status they finally lost at the previous major, albeit just in the context of being in the top 16 and not actually making it there. The Poles looked awful in a shocking Bo3 upset loss to MVP at ZOTAC, but this is a line-up not long for this world, with byali already stated to be set to depart following the tournament.

One final tournament, the major no less, will bring out some quality from VP and the fragging talent of Snatchie, byali and pasha will help them past the admittedly dangerous and surprisingly even looking field at this stage. Snatchie has yet to showcase the kind of form he did in his previous team, AGO, but that changes now and should it I expect many to be surprised by the fire-power VP can bring to the table in these Bo1s. It’s also worth noting that with so many underwhelming performances in past months, it is often tough to know where VP’s map pool is and teams will still give them respect on maps they have not been strong on for years at this point.

Making top 16 will be a surprise for NEO’s men at this point, but a welcome one.

TyLoo

Recent results be damned, of perhaps excused temporarily, because TyLoo’s time to impress is at hand. The quality of this team is painfully wasted at times, but when they are following the same page of music they can display some delicious Counter-Strike. My theory on TyLoo is that until a team has faced them they are a mystery, tough to gauge from raw placings and demos, but can be figured out after direct experience of their style and strengths. That makes for an ideal upset squad in a tournament like this.

TyLoo’s map pool is likely nowhere near what it seems, since their aggressive rush-heavy style of play lets them score wins that aren’t based on a strong meta understanding of how a map is played and their competition in Asia is still too weak to properly test their limits generally. BnTeT can frag with a lot of names, xccurate is a surprise package of clutch play and AWPing and somebody is an IGL’s dream for the man you want on a rush play.

3:2 – Dangerous living but living nonetheless

BIG

Their performance on home soil at ESL One Cologne was vastly over-rated, for my money, and on many fronts. Firstly, they were a team few expected anything from or had any official tournament play against. Secondly, they snuck through a few series in very tight fashion, barely escape defeat at the hands of both Renegades and MiBR, results which would have each eliminated them and prior to the top six of the tournament.

Finally, communication issues with smooya, who can not speak German, were not a significant problem, but seem destined to be in the back of gob’s mind as such a strong tactical in-game leader and who wants to make mid-round calls to attack and exploit read weaknesses or openings.

All in all, if BIG can show themselves to be a quality team then hats off to them, but I only have them creeping into the top 16 here. Their map pool looked solid enough and their style is intelligent but I question their fire-power, not least since I don’t yet buy the 11th conversion of nex into a big game force.

Ninjas in Pyjamas

The hype surrounding NiP seems a product of some alchemical process. A few months back this team were a laughing stack and their last place elimination at ESL One Cologne, managing 11 rounds total over three maps of play, had many bailing on them as a line-up. Winning the EU Minor was a nice moment, in the context of having been out of majors for a while, but who did they beat of significance there?

Likewise, move through to their revival on home soil in Stockholm. They finished top four and on paper that looks real swell, but which top teams did they take down to accomplish said feat? They won a single map against a top 10 ranked opponent, defeating the NRG squad who were eliminated in last place and in a Bo1. Na`Vi failing to meet NiP in the winner’s match and then drawing Heroic in the quarter-finals were the true NiP magic of that run.

Sure, once Astralis rolled around there were some amazing plays to be seen on nuke, but if winning all those clutches and landing all those crazy shots still sees you convincingly beaten just how good is your team at winning actual Counter-Strike matches?

The name value of this team is solid, but their fire-power has wavered constantly. I’m not a NiP believer at this point, but I’ll give them that they have enough in the relevant categories to get out of this hellpit and into the real major.

HellRaisers

There were plenty of names to pick from for the final spot and many reasons back and forth to move between them. In the end, I’ll come down to a simple reason: w0xic. Having him and ISSA in the same squad seems like you are unduly loaded up with chances to fail to get the visas to attend some events, but when they appear on the server in full force you see why the gamble has been worth it thusfar for the HellRaisers, even if they haven’t locked down the placings to match their occasionally strong upset potential.

w0xic has been consistently dangerous in offline play and is a player around whom the squad revolves and seems guaranteed to get his numbers. In a field of lots of potential upsets, HellRaisers has some young talent and some veterans with a nice enough mix to move on to the Legends Stage.

Eliminated

OpTic Gaming

The names in OpTic scream that this should be a tricky team with some nice fire-power game in and game out. The reality of their situation has been far from such circumstances. This is a team which has generally underwhelmed and with shocking consistency. They don’t even get the big fire-power the likes of k0nfig, JUGi and cajun should bring to the table as a trio. Their map pool looks less stable than Maelk tweeting after gade has been criticised. This is a team to sell your stock on and wait for a reformulation.

Gambit Esports

Four of these players won the major a year ago, but how far they have fallen in all respects since. Even the individual performances of the best players in the team had not been seen in months and as a squad they no longer win matches or place anywhere meaningful. Sure, an inspired run is not impossible and the addition of B1ad3 as a coach is a move with promise but Gambit has to show us something before there’s any point getting excited.

Renegades

Once upon a time they were a team on the rise and who had managed to both get a solid squad of players and a respectable map pool, but since have fallen back down a level again. Losing kassad was a killer, as his record of improving teams had continued to be a legitimate narrative thread. Renegades have a shot to get out, but they don’t look to be the same team as earlier in the year. There’s also the matter of their famously poor record at majors, which doesn’t look set to become a thing of the past yet.

compLexity Gaming

Once a joke of a line-up, coL emerged from the Minor actually looking decent. They will seemingly rely upon yayster to again bring a big performance, but veterans stanislaw and ShahZam have been here before. As a team they have some charm, but there is just too little experience as a five man line-up and no big runs to attach your hopes to. Playing Astralis in the opening game also practically ensures they have to win three out of four maps heading past that.

Rogue

My boy Hiko is back at the majors, where he is still the most decorated North American player in history. With fellow misfits rickeh, formerly of Renegades and CLG, and cadiaN, again appearing at a major you won’t see me at, the talent of this team is no joke. Their map pool even seems surprisingly solid. The main issue is the lack of an experienced IGL, with cadiaN taking the role on right now, and the bizarre nature of their composition. Hopes and wishes are grand but I doubt I’ll get to follow these guys into the next week, even though I’d like to.

Space Soldiers

Space Soldiers would have been a tantilising prospect against this field, with so many upsets and teams with talent but flaws to be played. Sadly, ngin being unable to secure a visa makes their chances far less appetising. Back to the Minor for these boys.

Team Spirit

Remember that team that starix turned down quality offers to go and play for instead as their IGL? Well they’re still making it through the backdoor of the pathetic CIS Minor and you’ll get to see them play and get stomped on in at least three maps of play here.

Vega Squadron

Last major saw more fireworks from these boys, but the chief gunpowder supplier (mir) has since left their ranks. Losing fire-power like that and dissolving a roster that had played together for years saps any sexy story-lines from this major campaign and leaves one with little hope of this team being able to threaten for a spot in the top 16.