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The make or break state for Donald Trump, according to the media, who again demonstrate that they have no idea what they are talking about. The real person under pressure here is now Ted Cruz. If he loses this state, he becomes dangerously close to being completely eliminated from seeking the nomination at the Republican Convention in Cleveland. He currently is on track for the nomination if he wins ~97% of all remaining pledged delegates. A loss tonight in Wisconsin increases the pledged delegates Cruz needs to win to ~99% of all remaining delegates.

The Polling in Wisconsin:

Most polling has been showing a closing of the gap between Trump and Cruz from Cruz’s 10 point lead in the Marquette poll. Exit polls from the 2012 Republican primary had Democrats around 11% of the primary and independents at 30%, with Republicans at 59%. Any poll showing less than that I take with a grain of salt.

Marquette was hacked into before they released their poll. We have no idea what happened to their data, if anything, but I take them with a grain of salt now. I believe that poll was compromised.

Fox Business didn’t list their full crosstabs, therefore there is no way to even verify if they are even close to historical exit poll data. They only listed Republicans, which tells me they undersampled Democrats and independents.

Emerson released their poll yesterday which pronounces a 40-35 lead for Cruz in the state:

The Emerson College Polling Society poll was conducted from March 30- April 3, 2016. The GOP primary consisted of 549 likely primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1%, and the Democratic primary consisted of 542 likely primary voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.2%. The General Election sample consisted of 1,198 likely general election voters, with a margin of error of +/-2.8%. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only and the general election was weighted by 2012 federal general election returns, the Democrat primary was weighted by age, the GOP primary was not weighted. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com.

Emerson only included landlines and did not weight their sample based on population data, so again, BIG GRAIN OF SALT!

Also, with a 549 likely primary voters, Emerson is trying to tell us that (if the voters they polled were divided evenly by congressional district) 68 people pollled is predictive of anything. That is such a small number of people polled that any statistical data pulled out of them is completely meaningless garbage.

The only poll that can be believed to somewhat accurately depict what was going on in the CD’s was the Optimus poll done a week ago. They actually polled each congressional district with enough people to actually have a non laughable claim about current support.

ARG has been fairly accurate this cycle in most states, except for Michigan and Texas. The problem for Trump supporters is that they seem to consistently underestimate Cruz’s support in their polls. Their poll almost matches the exit polls in 2012 exactly, although they are predicting a slightly younger and slightly more male electorate this year. They have Trump currently at 42% with a ten point lead over Cruz.

PPP undersamples Independents and Democrats, now this year could be different with a competitive primary between Hillary and Sanders. If there were the same number of independents as 2012, Trump would be winning in this poll.

Optimus’s Congressional District Claims:

Emerson’s Congressional District Claims:

As I said yesterday, someone is going to have egg on their faces today. Either it’s going to be close like PPP, Optimus, Emerson say, a blowout for Cruz like Marquette and Fox Business say, or a blowout for Trump as ARG says. WHO KNOWS?!

I say it will be close like Missouri, I hope I’m wrong as I do like to have some sleep… occasionally.

Results Here, Polls Close at 9PM EST:

CNN Wisconsin Results (CNN has been the fastest and most accurate reporting site so far, let me know if you have something that is faster)

CNN Calls WI for Cruz