Sky Views: Second Brexit vote would pull Boris Johnson out of the quagmire

Sky Views: Second Brexit vote would pull Boris Johnson out of the quagmire

It is now three and a half years since the majority voted, 52% to 48%, for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union.

Whatever side people were on back then, the almost universal question now is "why can't we get it done?"

The simple explanation is that the UK parliament has failed to agree how we should leave.

Well I have some good and some bad news for you, although which is good or bad probably depends on where you stood on the whole Brexit thing in the first place.


The good or bad news is that this week parliament is probably closer to voting through a withdrawal agreement than it ever has been before.

The bad or good news is that if it does there will almost certainly be another referendum on whether the UK leaves at all.

Image: Boris Johnson's attempts to have his way have been repeatedly blocked by MPs

The choice will be should we leave following the deal which the majority of MPs have just voted for or should we just call the whole thing off and remain members of the union.

In technical terms the remain option is sometimes called "revoke" because it would mean revoking, or calling back, Article 50.

Article 50 is the section of the European Union's Lisbon Treaty under which the UK is exercising the right to withdraw from the EU.

Way back in March 2017 the overwhelming majority of MPs voted to "trigger" article 50. This set a two-year deadline for Britain to get out. But because parliament couldn't agree how this should be done, that deadline has been extended several times.

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The latest deadline was for Halloween, 31 October 2019, but MPs have just overruled the government and ordered it to seek another extension if, as seems likely, they still can't agree how to get out by 19 October.

Meanwhile, it seems that they are coming round to asking the people for a second time to make up their minds for them.

This is not what Boris Johnson, the prime minister, wanted.

First of all he wanted to leave whatever happened on Halloween. He argued that leaving without any agreement then would be so bad for us and the EU that they would be bound to offer us better terms for an orderly exit than those agreed to by the last prime minister, Theresa May.

But a majority of MPs thought the prospect of crashing out was so terrible that they "took it off the table".

Next the Johnson government tried not to publish an official government study called Operation Yellowhammer which said a no-deal Brexit would be pretty awful, but MPs forced its publication anyway.

Image: Parliament has been suspended for five weeks

Johnson reacted by saying that since parliament couldn't agree on anything and was blocking his plans it would be better to have a general election to choose a new lot of MPs, who might agree with him.

He prorogued - suspended - parliament for five weeks which meant that politicians couldn't try to make laws which hampered him further.

But MPs were able to block his election plan because of the Fixed Term Parliament Act. They argued that it shouldn't happen until Brexit had been sorted out.

Which brings us back to where we are now and what happens next.

If he can't take Britain out without a deal and is refusing to ask for an extension, Johnson has little alternative but to reach an agreement when EU leaders have a summit on 17 and 18 October and then ask MPs to approve it immediately afterwards.

As things stand they are likely to vote it down again.

Johnson does not have a majority in parliament. The opposition parties and more than 20 MPs he has expelled from the Conservative Party for disagreeing with him on Europe have no incentive to back him, since under law there is no danger of a no-deal Brexit.

And up to 50 "loyal" Conservative MPs (and Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party, who have a voice but no vote) would prefer a "clean break" - to leave without a deal - to any agreement conceivably reached with the EU.

This time everyone agrees the result would be binding because the agreement would tell us what leave really means

But, but, but... some of the government's leading opponents are now saying. What if we voted through an agreement (something which is required by law) provided that you put it to the people in what they sometimes call a "confirmatory ballot"?

Knowing what they know now the people would have the choice of confirming their decision in 2016 or changing their minds.

It's not what Johnson or most Brexiteers want. Even some who voted remain think it's wrong to have another referendum. Some even say they would vote leave this time.

But it would be a way for Johnson to get out of a political and legal quagmire. This time everyone agrees the result would be binding because the agreement would tell us what leave really means.

Leave or remain. Sound familiar? It's taken us three and a half years to get back to where we started from. Good news or bad news?

Sky Views is a series of comment pieces by Sky News editors and correspondents, published every morning.

Previously on Sky Views: Ian King - How do you decide if someone is working class in 2019?