For most of the fight, the 4-1 favorite lived up to expectations, piling up landed strikes and overcoming a few dangerous moments in a slow-paced but effective performance. In the fifth and final round, however, Tate managed to grab hold of Holm, spin to her back, and then lock in a rear-naked choke for the finish. Holm was unconscious within seconds, and her title left with her.

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This Saturday’s matchup with the Kyrgyzstan-born Valentina Shevchenko marks Holm’s return to action. Like Holm, Shevchenko is an accomplished striker, though her background lies in kickboxing and traditional Muay Thai rather than a mixture of boxing and more traditional martial arts techniques.

On paper, this looks like a firefight waiting to happen between two ferociously skilled and talented strikers. In practice, however, it’s a lesson in the complexity of each fighter’s preferences and predilections and how they interact over the course of a fight.

Shevchenko is a counterpuncher by nature who sits back and relies on her opponent to lead the dance, while Holm is more effective when her opponent comes after her than she is moving forward. Moreover, Holm’s tendency to operate at the longest possible range limits the action to her terms, and while that’s proven effective, it’s not a recipe for an action-packed slugfest, particularly against an opponent who won’t come after her.

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We’ll focus here on Holm’s complex, diverse game, and offer a few thoughts on how she and Shevchenko match up.

Distance control is the key to Holm’s approach. The tall southpaw is an outside fighter by preference, and that means she wants to be all the way out of range, where neither she nor her opponent can land strikes, or all the way inside, in the clinch. At no point does Holm want to be in the pocket, the distance where she and her opponent can hit each other without first moving forward. Controlling the range allows Holm to pick and choose the terms under which she and her opponent engage.

Despite being an accomplished boxer, Holm rarely uses her jab. Instead, she relies on a variety of kicks to set the distance. Front kicks, round kicks, and especially side kicks force the opponent backwards, to the end of Holm’s long limbs. The side kick, though a staple in karate and taekwondo, is an uncommon strike in MMA. Holm is an expert at mixing it in with her punches, as we see here:

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Holm begins at long range, far beyond the distance where Tate can hit her. The champion steps in with a straight left hand, but Tate is ready for her, landing one left hook and then a second as counters while she steps back out of Holm’s range. Holm gets in the last shot in the sequence, though, driving a side kick into Tate’s chest to force her backward.

Note how far away the two fighters are at the end of the exchange. That’s where Holm is most comfortable, and it’s where the sequence both began and ended.

When she has that chunk of space available to her, this kind of blitzing combination is Holm’s bread and butter. Here’s another example of a blitz:

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Holm stutter-steps forward and takes a small step to her right as she throws the straight left. This gives her the dominant outside angle, which makes it harder for Tate to see the punch coming as it hits her in the face. Note how far away Holm is at the beginning of the exchange.

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Holm is effective in these blitzing scenarios, the first of the two options her distance control gives her. She’s much more dangerous, however, when her opponent comes to her.

The former champion isn’t a particularly hard puncher, and her shots carry a great deal more force when she can draw her opponent into running face-first into her strikes. That’s what happened in Holm’s upset win over Ronda Rousey, as we see here:

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Rousey has pursued Holm toward the fence, but Holm still has room to maneuver. She plants her feet, throws a straight left, and then immediately follows with a second one that snaps Rousey’s head backward. With the champion momentarily stunned, Holm immediately circles out to open space and reestablishes long range. This forces Rousey to begin the process over again.

Here’s another example:

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Once again, Rousey has pursued Holm toward the fence, but Holm still has some space. Sensing the cage behind her, Holm plants her feet and slams a straight left into Rousey’s face, and then immediately circles out into open space once again.

Note how much harder these straight lefts seemed to land than those in the blitzing sequences above. Holm’s straight left is effective, but it’s mechanically flawed when she throws it moving forward: She flings her weight into the punch rather than smoothly transferring it from back to front via the turn of her hip, which robs the punch of its snap and force.

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When she lets her opponent come to her and plants her feet, however, her mechanics immediately improve. Rather than throwing her weight forward, she turns her hip over and the punch naturally snaps.

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Shevchenko probably won’t give Holm much of an opportunity to engage in that kind of stick-and-move game. The Kyrgyzstan native is a pure counterpuncher who is content to let her opponent come to her, as Holm did against Rousey, which means that Holm is going to have to be the fighter pressing the action.

When she pulls the trigger, Shevchenko can be devastating. Here’s an example from last December’s fight against Sarah Kaufman:

Kaufman comes in with a half-hearted low kick that brushes Shevchenko’s thigh. She responds on a hair-trigger with a brutal spinning back kick that crunches into Kaufman’s sternum.

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Let’s take a look at another example from the same fight:

Kaufman feints a front kick to push Shevchenko back to the fence, but Shevchenko, not fooled, responds with a vicious left kick to the body. When Kaufman tries to counter with a right hook, Shevchenko replies with one of her own. Kaufman is too close for the punch to land, so Shevchenko turns it into a grip that allows her to enter the clinch.

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The Kyrgyzstan native is even better in the clinch than she is at range. On the inside, she boasts a slick array of takedowns, including throws and trips like this:

Shevchenko complements those takedowns with brutal knees and slashing elbows in the clinch.

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These sequences are Shevchenko’s bread and butter. She lets her opponent come to her, and then uses her understanding of distance and timing to reply with something much more devastating. If her opponent overshoots, Shevchenko grabs hold of the clinch and works takedowns, strikes, or some combination of the two.

In theory, this sounds like a good matchup against Holm, who is perfectly content to leap into range. As we saw in the very first GIF, she can be countered as she comes in:

Shevchenko is a far sharper counterpuncher than Miesha Tate, and Holm will surely give her opportunities as she blitzes. Unlike Tate, however, Shevchenko is almost entirely reactive: She isn’t going to proactively force Holm into making mistakes, as Tate did to set up the fifth-round finish.

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Holm’s command of distance and three-inch height advantage will likewise make things difficult for Shevchenko: Holm’s front and side kicks can land at a range where Shevchenko can’t hit her back. Moreover, it’s impossible to grab hold of the clinch when your opponent is standing four feet away, as Holm will be for large chunks of the fight.

All of this means Shevchenko will have to capitalize on any openings, however small, that Holm presents. Every time Holm throws, Shevchenko has to be ready with more than one shot in return. Every time Holm overshoots, Shevchenko has to grab the clinch and immediately throw strikes before Holm breaks off. On the flip side, Holm can’t attack wildly without exposing herself to risk, so she’ll need to carefully pick and choose when to blitz.

This is a recipe for a slow-paced, deliberate fight. It will feature a high level of skill — both Holm and Shevchenko are experienced and battle-tested strikers — but not necessarily a great deal of action.

Even the best fighters don’t necessarily match up in the most compelling ways. Perhaps Holm and Shevchenko will fight against type, pick up the pace, and put on a donnybrook for the ages. If they fight as they usually do, however, we’re in for a long 25 minutes of razor-thin and interesting, but not necessarily exciting, action.

Patrick Wyman is a mixed martial arts scout who recently earned his PhD. He hosts the Heavy Hands Podcast and contributes analysis to The Post.

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