Voting is well under way in the South Carolina primary, where the two front-runners, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, are in a close fight to the finish line. The former House speaker has bounced from a strong debate performance on Monday to usurp Mitt Romney as front runner. All the indications are that he could pull off a famous victory here.

But despite posting a pretty consistent lead over the past few days, the pollsters appear relucant to call it for Gingrich. The large number of undecided voters make it far more volatile, as well as absentee ballots thought likely to favour Romney

Team Romney has been desparately playing down expectations in the past few days but there is no doubt that the former Massachusetts governor's position is looking rocky. From a confident prediction that he would sweep the first three states, Romney has retrospecively lost Iowa and may have let South Carolina slip out of his hands despite a furious campaign and a fortune spent on advertising.

Polls close at 7pm ET (12 midnight GMT), and the Guardian's team of reporters are out and about, taking the pulse of South Carolina and attending the competing victory parties.

But there can be only one winner: so until the polls close why not try your hand at the prediction game and enter our South Carolina forecasting competition.

We have moved the Guardian's live blog HQ from a mid-price hotel in Charleston, to a mid-price hotel in Columbia, the state capital, in the middle of the state. The weather is appalling: there's a tornado warning in force, there's torrential rain, thunder and lightning. Which won't do much for voter turnout.

Our reporter Adam Gabbatt has stayed in Charleston, and he has been visiting polling stations today.

By lunchtime, 255 people had cast their vote here at Mason preparatory school, nestled by Charleston harbour in the west of the city. There's no danger of repeat of the Iowa caucus counting chaos, with voters electronically selecting their candidates in the school gym. An unscientific Guardian sample of six voters at around 12.30pm showed Mitt Romney surging into an unassailable lead with 100% of the vote, although there's plenty of time left until the polls close. "He is a businessman and people have to understand that running the United States is a business, rather than scratching each others backs," said Judith S Hendrick, a 58-year-old entrepreneur. "We're gonna be owned by China if someone doesn't understand that running this country is a business." John Scott, who lived in Hampstead, London before moving to Charleston, had also plumped for Romney, although said he was an independent and had voted for Obama in 2008. He said he was undecided if Romney could win his vote in a presidential election, but said Obama "hasn't carried out a lot of the promises he made." "We haven't seen a lot of change." One young woman said Romney had swayed her because: "I like the fact he didn't come from money. His dad worked in a car factory." George Romney was CEO of American Motors Corporation until 1962, entering politics thereafter. The voter asked not to be named.

Don't forget to take part in our exciting predict-the-result competition. We have surpassed ourselves with the prizes, this time. We have a a genuine Ron Paul rally sign – signed by Ron Paul himself. And a "Ron Paul 2012" beanie hat (not signed by Ron Paul).

Who says the media is ignoring him?

There was almost an embarassing double booking today. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich were both due to make a voting-day campaign stop at Tommy's Country Ham House, a popular Saturday morning breakfast spot in Greenville, which serves traditional southern foods and is a regular stop on the election trail.

For reasons that remain unclear, both campaigns were booked at the same time. And in the battle of Ham House, in a move that may well have set the tone for the day, Romney lost.

Chris McGreal, our correspondent in Greenville, has the full story.

I know elections are tough and dirty in South Carolina but this is ridiculous.

How unlike the home life of our plutocratic presidential candidate. Here is a totally realistic photo of Mitt Romney doing some washing. But of course Mitt Romney is used to laundering … usually money laundering.* But it's the same basic principle, right?

Nothing like the glamorous life on the road twitter.com/tromney/status… — Tagg Romney (@tromney) January 21, 2012

*Mitt Romney's lawyers, it was a joke, please do not sue us.

Fox News is playing clips of John McCain's victory speech back in 2008. Which reminds me that in 2008 nobody really cared about the GOP race so much, because the Democratic primary between Barack Obama and Hillary Romney – I mean Clinton – was the huge event that night.

If Mitt Romney really wants to win the Republican nomination what he really needs is for Bill Clinton to pop up and dismiss Newt Gingrich winning South Carolina. Because that worked.

In the comments, reader Damien asks a couple of good questions.

What would happen if Gingrich wins here but then, as expected, loses in the February primaries? Will he still have much of a chance for the rest of the campaign or will the momentum have returned to Romney?

Good question, Damien. The short answer is: woah. Let me speculate wildly here and say, the first point is what happens in Florida. Obviously, a win in South Carolina will give Newt the "big mo" going into the Sunshine State in 10 days time. But given Romney's head start and deep pockets, it's a tough one for Gingrich. So before getting into anything else, the result in Florida makes a big difference.

After Florida, there are a string of caucus states, and Romney probably has the edge there. As we saw with the Clinton-Obama to-do in 2008, winning a string of even relatively minor states gives your candidates a winning narrative.

Also, what are the advantages/disadvantages of a prolonged fight to the nomination? Presumably it would risk disunity in amongst the Republicans and more money will be spent in the primaries at the expense of the general?

It depends. It certainly helped Obama in 2008. It probably helped Gerald Ford in 1976 after defeating one R Reagan. The battle against Ted Kennedy hurt Jimmy Carter in 1980. It's not the prolonged battle that does the damage: it's whether or not the one-time rivals kiss and make up after the nomination has been decided.

Reagan graciously conceded to Ford, Hillary Clinton gave herself wholeheartedly to the Obama campaign, while Ted Kennedy was a moody old grump that poor Jimmy Carter had to chase around the stage at the DNC to get a congratulatory handshake. It was humiliating.

So in conclusion: a prolonged primary battle helps the eventually winner, because they take up more airtime, so long as the eventual loser doesn't go and sulk in his/her tent like Achilles (who lost to Agamemnon in the crucial Achaean caucus).

Our correspondent Ewen MacAskill is in downtown Columbia at the venue for Newt Gingrich's results party.

I've just bumped into the chairmwoman of the Democratic National Committee, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, at the Newt party room. There are no Newt supporters here yet, just loads of media. It's an extremely small room for a party. Schultz has been going round the Republican caucus/primary scene to take advantage of the massed ranks of journalists. She seems, like most Democrats, to expect Romney to the eventual nominee regardless of whether Gingrich wins tonight and targeted Romney rather than Gingrich. She said: "I think if Newt Gingrich wins tonight it is demonstrative of the fact that the more people get to know Mitt Romney they do not like him. Why won't he come clean on his economic record at Bain and about his tax returns? Something as simple as showing his tax returns? When he announced on Tuesday he was paying 15%, most middle-class Americans pay more than that."

Who would Obama rather meet? "Let the Republicans decide their nominee. They have all embraced extremism."

Rick Perry only left the race two days ago but it already feels like a lifetime.

Meanwhile, it's recrimination time in Texas.

At drinks with ex-Perry staff last night, the loathing of the DC-based campaign consultants was set to eleven. — Joshua Treviño (@jstrevino) January 21, 2012

You may somehow have missed this awesome piece of Newt-justification by Dr Keith Ablow – "a psychiatrist and member of the Fox News Medical A-Team" – of Newt Gingrich's three marriages? It's obviously a joke but you've got to love that last line:

So, as far as I can tell, judging from the psychological data, we have only one real risk to America from his marital history if Newt Gingrich were to become president: We would need to worry that another nation, perhaps a little younger than ours, would be so taken by Mr. Gingrich that it would seduce him into marrying it and becoming its president.

Isn't that an Onion piece right there?

BREAKING: Polls have just closed, and both Fox News and NBC News are calling South Carolina for Newt Gingrich. What that means is that Gingrich has a huge lead in the exit polls, when a TV network feels confident enough to call a result right off the bat.

CNN's exit poll puts Gingrich well in the lead, but the network is holding off a projection for the time being.

ABC News and CBS are also calling it for Gingrich. That must be a heck of an exit poll lead.

Meanwhile, according to the embedded reporter for NBC News, the Gingrich campaign bus is stuck in traffic an hour out of Columbia, which is rather amusing.

Well, that was quick. Obviously, Mitt Romney is in second place. Based on the live shots from Fox News, the Romney "victory party" looks like a wake for a mildly disliked distant relative.

We still don't know how the Ron Paul versus Rick Santorum race for the bottom – so to speak – has played out, and that has some implications. If Santorum is spanked here then there's a chance he'll pull out (none of these puns are intended, honest) and that can only help Gingrich, even if Santorum has been a useful idiot for Gingrich in the debates in the Romney-beat-up-athon.

The Guardian's Chris McGreal reports from the Mitt Romney non-victory uncelebrations in Columbia, at what sounds like a total downer:

Romney's staff are hinting that he may concede quickly athough they didn't seem certain. Romney supporters have drifted in to the hall at the state fair grounds. The mood is glum. What seemed certain victory a week ago now looks like it might be a humiliating loss. Some of Romney's supporters are telling themselves that way back when he was never expected to win South Carolina anyway. And that the road ahead still favours him. But they're clearly feeling the loss.

Here's a fascinating fact from the exit poll in South Carolina. On the "best candidate to beat Barack Obama" question – the category that Mitt Romney has lead throughout this campaign – Newt Gingrich is now blowing him away.

According to the broadcasters' joint exit poll, Gingrich got 48% and Romney got 39% on the electability issue. That kicks away Romney's biggest prop: that he's the guy who can beat Obama.

There are candidates such as Romney who try and run on "electability". But the "electability" question is so nebulous that it can slip through a candidate's fingers, as many others including Hillary Clinton have discovered.

The Associated Press has now called it for Newt Gingrich. This is significant – the AP has the highest bar of all the US news organisations when it comes to calling these things, and have the most sophisticated psephologists.

At the Romney campaign event, supporters are being directed to sign the national anthem – which suggests Romney may appear shortly.

Chris McGreal reports:

A young campaign aide is directing the crowd to chant: "President Romney". But it can't be said their hearts are in it. When the latest results pop up on a TV screen, putting Romney ahead with 40%. But that's just with 2% of the vote counted. The crowd goes wild – and then realises.

Fox News is projecting that Rick Santorum will finish third, and Ron Paul will be fourth. That means Santorum will most likely stick around for Florida.

Meanwhile the Guardian's Janine Gibson, at the Gingrich event, reports a carnival atmosphere – and a decidedly MOR music playlist.

Now they're playing the Eye of the Tiger and the music from Rocky.... What will be next, twitter? #newtaoke twitter.com/janinegibson/s… — janinegibson (@janinegibson) January 22, 2012

Pundit Charles Krauthammer on Fox News is trying to explain Newt Gingrich's resurrection:

You've got Lazarus. But Lazarus only had to rise once. Gingrich has risen twice, and maybe there's something going on here.

The Guardian is also in Charleston at the party for the projected third-place candidate, Rick Santorum. Adam Gabbat reports from there.

There's about 30 or 40 people stood around at Santorum's results event – a number bolstered by reality TV star Jim "Bob" Duggar and the many fruits of his loins – with most of the crowd seemingly wondering why they're here. "I was hoping for better," said a rather downbeat-looking Haley Cochran. "But Gingrich still has some good things." Why not vote for him then? "I find Santorum has stronger values, and I support that. Gingrich has had some let downs." What does she mean by values? "His stances on abortion, and religion." Nick Hearn, who has been volunteering for the Santorum campaign "for

the last few weeks" was a little more bullish. "You know, when I played sports, I never thought about what would happen if we lose." And now Santorum has lost? "Well one out of three isn't a bad place to be right now. Going into Florida, he still has a great opportunity."

Our correspondent Ewen MacAskill has this analysis, saying that Mitt Romney's campaign risks being derailed by the South Carolina result.

Gingrich's win highlights the fractured nature of the Republican party. For the first time since 1980 a different candidate has won the first three contests in the nominating race. Santorum Iowa, Romney New Hampshire, Gingrich South Carolina. This is bad news for Romney. Although he has vast piles of money and the most staff and campaign offices in the next contest, Florida, and the states that follow, that counts for little if a candidate cannot connect with voters as seems to be the problem with Romney. Instead of being wrapped up by the end of January, as Romney had a reasonable hope of achieving at the start of the week, the Republican race is now set to go on month after month. The prospect of it not being decided until the party convention in August is no longer as fanciful as it seems. Gingrich goes into Florida with little cash and staff but money and the staff it buys follows winners. John McCain in 2007 almost went bust, having to slim down his campaign, but after winning New Hampshire and South Carolina the money began to flow in and he took Florida too. Florida is a huge state, geographically and in terms of population, and requires vast sums spent on advertising. Romney has the money to do this and Gingrich may be able to find the backers to match him. Gingrich, though, has an advantage: two more debates, in Tampa on Monday and in Jacksonville on Thursday. Given his performances in debates this week, Gingrich will be relishing this and Romney dreading it. One of the most significant findings in the exit polls is that two-thirds admitted they had been influenced by the debates. Romney has a double-digit poll lead in Florida, but he had a double-digit poll lead in South Carolina too. None of that seems to matter in this crazy race. Florida is now a toss-up state. And beyond that, the states up next, such as Nevada and Maine are more favourable to Romney. The next big test will be in March, Super Tuesday, when 10 states are up for grabs. Gingrich starts from a disadvantage in that he failed to qualify in time for one of them, Virginia, but he will do well in the southern states and maybe some of the others. This race is set for the long haul.

The Guardian's Stuart Millar reports from the Gingrich victory party here in Columbia, South Carolina. It seems there's a real sense that their man's victory tonight is significant beyond this state.

At the packed Gingrich victory party in Columbia's Hilton hotel, the soundtrack is 80s rock and the mood pure joy. "I'm ecstatic," said Raymond Moore, from Lexington, SC. "I never doubted he would do it. Newt's a heavy hitter and we need heavy hitter right now." As somebody who toyed with the idea of backing Rick Santorum but decided against because he didnt believe he could win the nomination, Moore said he had no doubt that Gingrich would win the race. "I'm sure he'll go all the way. I'll be hitting the phone banks for him in Florida to make sure he does it. "Romney has shown here that he's not ready. He struggled in the debates with questions he should have been prepared for. Obama is going to throw $1bn at us and we need a candidate who can deal with that."

Gingrich supporter Raymond Moore: "I'm ecstatic. Newt is a heavy hitter and we need a heavy hitter right now." #fits twitter.com/stuartmillar15… — Stuart Millar (@stuartmillar159) January 22, 2012

Mitt Romney is speaking to his supporters at his non-celebration party in Columbia. Let's listen in shall we?

Arriving on stage to cheers, Romney opens with "You should hear them when we win." Ah, right. But you didn't win.

Romney continues to do his lemons-being-made-into-lemonade act. "This is such an interesting race!" declares Mitt, who is at pains to stress "We've now had three contests …. This is a long race and we've got a long way to go."

He congratulates Gingrich briefly … aaaaand we're back into the Romney stump speech on the awfulness of Barack Obama. Sigh.

For some reason the crowd doesn't want to hear Romney's tired soundbites – which we've all heard a zillion times on his TV ads, which is what he's repeating here.

"In recent weeks the choice within our own party has also been stark … our party cannot been lead by someone who has never run a business or run a state." So now the definition of president is, say a former businessman and governor.

Romney is making an attack on the Gingrich/Santorum assault on Romney's Bain Capital career, and he's making it all into "an attack on free enterprise".

Meanwhile, Rick Santorum is speaking, over on CNN. Speaking of Gingrich, Santorum says: "He kicked butt. I'm proud of him."

Romney is laying down the gauntlet to Gingrich here on the attack on free enterprise line, although he is making it sound like an MBA class tutorial.

"My campaign will be about the businesses I helped start," says Mitt. Gosh, that will be such fun.

The crowd chants: "We need Mitt!"

"Why thank you," says Mitt, who appears to be swallowing some of the lemons he's trying to make lemonade out of. "Anne agrees with you." What?

Romney's back on his stump speech. This is like the opposite of the "Dean Scream". The "Mitt Snit" perhaps?

The Gingrich train is leaving the station: with 24% of the precincts counted, Newt Gingrich has 41% of the votes while Mitt Romney has just 26% – a 14 percentage point margin. Rick Santorum has 17% and Ron Paul has 13%.

Gingrich is on course for a huge win here, a blowout. This could be a vast black eye for Romney.

Sarah Palin is on Fox News! "It's still early in the process..." but Megyn Kelly cuts her off because Ron Paul is now speaking.

How the mighty have fallen: Sarah Palin cut short for Ron Paul. Fancy.

Meanwhile, along the same lines, here's Jim Newell of Gawker.

At least Mitt's dad lost to a dignified person like Richard Nixon — Jim Newell (@jim_newell) January 22, 2012

Ron Paul is resplendent in a lovely blue sweater with a nice striped tie. The words coming out of his mouth include "fiat money", "gold standard" and so on.

"We are the next generation," says 76-year-old Ron Paul.

The Guardian's Jonathan Freedland thinks Newt Gingrich's hard line on Israel-Palestine will help him with Jewish Republicans in Florida.

I suspect Newt's "invented people" line about the Palestinians is not exactly going to hurt him in Florida — Jonathan Freedland (@j_freedland) January 22, 2012

Ron Paul is still going – I think Newt Gingrich's bus must still be stuck outside Columbia. Paul promises:

We will be going to the caucus states, and we will be promoting the whole idea of getting more delegates, because that's the name of the game and we will pursue it. Looks like tonight we will get four to five times more votes than we did four years ago.

Talk about faint praise:

Tonight, I congratulate Speaker Gingrich on a hard-fought campaign here in South Carolina. — Mitt Romney (@MittRomney) January 22, 2012

Congratulating someone for a "hard-fought campaign" is usually the domain of the winner. Not a lost-by-a-landslide loser.

Now it's Rick Santorum up on stage.

"Well, three states, three winners. What a great country," says Santorum. And unlike churlish Mr Lemonface Romney, Santorum congratulates Gingrich full-throatedly rather than talking about "a hard-fought campaign".

For some reason Santorum goes off on a strange tangent about how he wrote a book in response to Hillary Clinton. Why? Who knows, only Rick Santorum's brain.

Okay not really getting where Santorum is going with this but he seems to be working really hard to get there. — Ana Marie Cox (@anamariecox) January 22, 2012

Anyway he quickly gets back to "radical Jihadists" and "the working class values that my grandfather taught to me," so we're back on course there. Although Rick appears to be running for governor of Pennsylvania tonight.

There are some particularly attractive young women are behind Santorum on stage – presumably they are decoys placed there to distract Newt Gingrich.

Santorum: "Three states, three winners, what a great country." twitter.com/AdamGabbatt/st… — Adam Gabbatt (@AdamGabbatt) January 22, 2012

The Guardian's Chris McGreal tries to feel for the feeble pulse of Mitt Romney's supporters here in Columbia tonight:

Ryan Boland, the chair of a Romney campaign county office, said he wasn't surprised that Gingrich did well: "This is South Carolina and he threw a lot of red meat. Unfortunately there are a lot of people who like to gnaw on that. Mitt is so much more solid." Boland said the loss in South Carolina is a setback but Romney remains the favourite. "I'm still optimistic. Florida will be Mitt's. Then there's Michigan and those next states. They'll go with Mitt," he said. But Boland added that he thought Romney may have to follow Gingrich's lead and throw a bit more red meat out there: "He's been cautious, playing it safe. I don't want him to go over the top but I would like him to be a bit more aggressive." Scott Barker is a Romney voter who turned up expecting a victory party: "I'm a little disappointed. It's really a shock to me that Newt Gingrich did so well. I really thought that Romney would squeak it out. "I honestly don't think Newt Gingrich can win a general election. Gingrich is a problem for the Republican party." Larry Harsey said he thinks Romney, a Mormon, was defeated by his religion, although that was not a common view among others around him: "This man is a great man. Some people don't like his religion. That shouldn't matter but it does."

Two-thirds of the precincts are in, and Gingrich has 41% with Romney trailing at 26%. On Fox News, campaign correspondent Carl Cameron says even the Gingrich campaign has been surprised by the size of his victory.

Gingrich, according to the exit polls, won every category, including married women, which is quite something, considering the Marianne Gingrich interview on Thursday.

It looks like Gingrich is having trouble getting into his own victory party, it's so crowded.

Stage and room so packed Newt and Callista can't get in #newtjam — Stuart Millar (@stuartmillar159) January 22, 2012

On Fox News, Karl Rove is talking down the scale and meaning of Gingrich's victory.

There is something to be said for the end of the "South Carolina always backs the eventual winner" line that we've had repeated forever. It is based, as a statistician would say, on a very small data set: 1980, 1988, 1996, 2000 and 2008. That's not exactly the Oracle of Delphi.

To chants of "Newt can win!", finally Gingrich appears on stage here in Columbia, flanked by his grandchildren, whom Newt labels his "debate coaches".

"Everybody was nice to us," says Newt Gingrich, lauding the state's "southern hospitality". It's easy to do that when you win by double digits.

Getting down to serious business, Gingrich is instantly into the "elites of Washington and New York" – New York as well now too? – and drumming the message about the elites trying to destroy America.

He explains his appeal, cleverly:

It's not that I'm a good debater, it's that I articulate the deepest-held values of the American people.

According to Gingrich, elections can only happen in America, and uses this as an excuse to suck up to all the candidates, especially Ron Paul, with Gingrich making a massive pander over "fiat money and the Federal Reserve".

Gingrich even makes a brief pander to Romney, based on his running of the Winter Olympics it would appear from his remarks.

We want to run not a Republican campaign, we want to run an American campaign, because we are optimists about the future … if we unleash the American people, we can rebuild the people that we love.

Now Gingrich is deep into his "real America" tack, which is a not-very-faint dogwhistle aimed at Obama. John McCain tried this in 2008 – at one point the McCain campaign slogan was "The American President Americans Have Been Waiting For," which was even more whistley. But hey, it's early days.

Oh and there's the "President Obama was the most effective food stamp president" line. Food stamps, eh?

Newt Gingrich is raising the spectre of a Chinese-Canadian alliance! And not long after saying that he would as president "not bow to the king of Saudi Arabia," Gingrich promptly complains that the Saudis are talking to the Chinese about building a nuclear reactor. What does he plan to do, use the military to force Saudi Arabia to buy US reactors?

Yes it was Gingrich's greatest hits on Obama, all very attractive to Republican voters but of dubious worth to the unaligned who don't froth at the mouth at the very mention of "Saul Alinsky".

If you even know who Saul Alinsky is, then you're ahead of 98% of the American people.

Back to Charleston and Adam Gabbatt at the Rick Santorum event. We won't stay long, it's not a happy place.

There was a palpable sense of disappointment at Rick Santorum's results party prior to him coming out – with a staffer trying, and failing to get a chant of "We pick Rick" going. It was all a far cry from the Santorum results party in Iowa three weeks ago, when campaign staff had to ask the crowd to be quiet, and stop waving signs, to allow the media a clean shot of the former senator. When Santorum did take the stage – delayed by Ron Paul speaking elsewhere – the crowd picked up the chant, and there was plenty of cheering, but there was also a sense of going through the motions. As Santorum rattled through the story of his grandfather "digging his way to freedom" and expounded on the need for a strong conservative, it took an unheralded Occupy action to really get the audience going, booing a young man who threw glitter and shouted "bigot, bigot" at Santorum. Protest aside, the feeling of disappointment prevailed. "I'd have liked to have seen him in the 20s," said Jim Corbett, a 51-year-old attorney. "It's not the 3rd place, it's the percentages that are disappointing. I thought more undecided voters would break for Santorum." RoseAnne Gaetano, 63, had driven 810 miles from Pennsylania and refused to let the result get her down. "You always want to be on top. And now it's 1, 1, and 1. We're going to Florida."

Fun fact: in 2008, John McCain won South Carolina with 147,000 and so far Newt Gingrich has received more than 200,000. So, not bad eh?

One of Mitt Romney's lines of attack against Gingrich in his speech tonight was this: "Those who pick up the weapons of the left today will find them turned against them tomorrow."

It has become a bit of a thing on Twitter.

Turn up NPR **REALLY LOUD** #weaponsoftheleft — Ana Marie Cox (@anamariecox) January 22, 2012

anyone know how to weaponize Patchouli #weaponsoftheleft — Tim Dickinson (@7im) January 22, 2012

Right. Here's what we've learned tonight:

A race we all thought would be neck-and-neck between Gingrich and Romney turned out to be a runaway romp for Gingrich. He won with a 14 percentage point margin that outstripped the final opinion polls.

A majority of Republicans in South Carolina think that Newt Gingrich is the party's most electable candidate versus Barack Obama. That's a charming idea in and of itself.

Mitt Romney's supposed advantage in terms of money, super pac support and campaign machinery all turned to ashes on the night. Given that much of the received assumption of Romney's inevitiability rested on those three points, where does that leave Romney's chances?

The Republican contest will now go on beyond the next primary in Florida at the end of this month. A tide of money is likely to flow into the Gingrich campaign. How quickly he can scale up his operation will have an impact on the course of this nomination.

Gingrich's new position as the frontrunner will bring a big bonus with it in terms of free media coverage. Combined with the two debates coming up – on Monday and Thursday – which play to his strengths, Gingrich can use free media to compensate for his organisational and financial weaknesses – but only up to a point.

Rick Santorum's relatively strong showing in third place, winning 17% of the vote, will probably be enough to sustain him in the race. But should Santorum make a decision to withdraw, that would almost certainly aid Gingrich.

Will Gingrich's victory cause a backlash from what's left of the Republican establishment? The next few days will show if there any panic in the ranks. Since Gingrich has been banging the Reagan drum as loudly as possible, look for former Reaganites to start rubbishing Gingrich in public.

With three different winners from the first three contests, looking for a national pattern among Republican voters is pointless. That makes national polls worthless. And the fluid nature of the earlier contests means that opinion polls taken more than two or three days before voting took place were also worthless.

Feel free to speculate endlessly about a deadlocked Republican National Convention and/or late entrants – Jeb Bush? Why not, everyone else will.

That will do for one primary. Next up: a debate in Florida on Monday, just 46.5 hours from now. No, we can't wait, either.