For now, however, we have an administration under siege made worse by the president’s and top spinners’ abject lack of credibility. The normal presumption of honesty that most presidents enjoy, in the case of Trump, becomes the presumption of dishonesty. Given a president who either cannot accept reality, does not remember what he has said or done and/or lies reflexively, many Americans, including a growing number of Republicans in Congress, will be far less receptive to his explanations and attempts to blame others. Feeling vulnerable and besieged, Trump is holding a political rally (!) in Florida, a pathetic attempt to re-create the adulation he experienced in the campaign from true believers. Whatever temporary lift he receives from that will not be sufficient to blot out the tumult surrounding his presidency.

Meanwhile, the president’s decision to have a crony, Stephen A. Feinberg (who is also an ally of Stephen K. Bannon), “review” the intelligence community smacks of blatant politicization, if not outright intimidation. (According to the New York Times, Dan Coats — Trump’s nominee for director of national intelligence — is “angry” at the obvious attempt to insert a Trump-Bannon confidant into the intelligence community.) This will surely increase the enmity between the White House and the intelligence agencies.

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As the Russia scandal mushrooms, Trump will face an entirely changed political landscape. Swiftly moving events will have at least five serous ramifications.

First, unrelated presidential initiatives (remember the travel ban?) have been waylaid. Complex undertakings such as tax and health-care reform become exponentially more difficult, in part because the president’s clout is diminished and in part because a disorganized White House is now even more disorganized. The forced withdrawal of Trump’s labor secretary nominee, Andrew Puzder, only heightens the perception of political ineptitude.

Second, Vice President Pence’s ability to assist the president as a liaison to Congress may be reduced. Trump may have permitted or authorized Flynn to lie to the VP and been content to see the VP unwittingly lie on behalf of Flynn. The relationship between the two has to have suffered. Does Pence speak for the president? Does the president empower Pence to make deals, or is Pence a prop that Trump uses to soothe angry Republicans?

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Third, at least in the Senate, a sense of obligation (cynics would say, fear for their political survival) among Republicans has kicked in. How far will the Senate now go? The Senate could demand Trump’s tax returns, subpoena current and future aides and require disclosure of the intercepted Flynn calls with the Russian ambassador. The Senate’s curiosity to expand to examination of Trump’s financial ties to Russia and to other foreign governments may raise the specter of a constitutional face-off.

Fourth, if the crisis drags on, Republicans fearing a turn of fortunes in the midterm may try to separate themselves from the president. Democrats will intensify their opposition to every Trump appointee and agenda item. In 2018, they will seek to nationalize the election as a referendum on Trump and a rebuke to his GOP sycophants. GOP senators and congressmen who are seen as too supportive of a compromised president (e.g. Rep. Jason Chaffetz, Sen. Ted Cruz) may see energized primary challengers pop up for the 2018 races.

Fifth, a failing first-term president will eventually spark interest in a GOP primary challenge in 2020. Those who have sought to ingratiate themselves with the White House may now rethink their boosterism. Republicans such as Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) and Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) who remained stalwarts in the #NeverTrump sector of the GOP will gain political heft.

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