From Jake Sherman and Johm Bresnahan writing at Politico:

Something has changed for John Boehner.

Figures in his close-knit circle of allies are starting to privately wonder whether he can survive an all-but-certain floor vote this fall to remain speaker of the House. And, for the first time, many top aides and lawmakers in the House do not believe he will run for another term as House leader in 2017.

The Boehner era might be coming to an end, they say.

“That’s a personal decision he has to make. I don’t know why he would want to, personally,” said Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-Ga.), when asked whether Boehner would run again. “But I do think that he feels, in his heart of hearts, he feels like he’s doing what’s best for this country — regardless of what the political consequences are. That says something about somebody.”

As Congress returns Tuesday for what could be one of the most challenging stretches of his nearly five years as speaker, POLITICO interviewed more than a dozen lawmakers and aides in direct contact with Boehner. Uniformly they sympathized with his plight: Caught between an intractable right flank and a Democratic president, they say he’s managed to get a remarkable amount done. But they also questioned Boehner’s viability in the near- and long-term — most of them spoke privately to protect their relationship with him — as the 65-year-old speaker approaches a quarter-century of service in the House.