- --for Vegas to win, New England is going to have to win. And they are. And they're going to cover the spread. And there'll be times in this game when it may not even look pretty. Philadelphia is going to hang around in the first half. That defensive line-- like Atlanta's Rise Up and Sacksonville and the Legion of Boom-- it'll give New England troubles early. But New England is going to take a lead, either late first half or early third, and Nick Foles will play from behind.

Let's look at a couple of facts. A month ago, if I told you Carson Wentz won't play-- Hall of Fame left tackle for Philly won't play-- top linebacker won't play-- he'll face Tom Brady and Belichick in the Super Bowl. What do you think the line would have been then? 8? 10?

But that win over Minnesota has elevated the sense of how good Philadelphia is. Philadelphia won a couple of playoff games at home against an Atlanta team that had played four or five games on the road and a Minnesota team that had come off their biggest win in a decade. Philadelphia has earned their way here, absolutely. I think, actually, in week seven, eight, nine-- if they had Wentz and if they had Jason Peters and if they had Jordan Hicks, I think they'd beat New England, potentially.

Nick Foles-- backup left tackle-- second best interior linebacker-- Belichick versus Doug Pederson-- Brady against Foles-- experience against none-- this is going to be New England, and it's going to be New England, comfortably.

Everybody today loves Nick Foles. Let's look at his last five starts, because we know Tom's last five starts. Four of five-- he's been exceptional. In the one he wasn't, he still won, and was pretty good and super efficient. In Nick Foles last five starts-- game one against the Giants, he was terrific. The following week against a terrible Oakland defense, he was awful. The following week against the bad Dallas defense, he was awful. He was then at home-- OK and efficient against Atlanta-- not great. And then amazing against Minnesota.

Tom Brady, again, has been amazing in four of his last five starts. No MVP quarterback. No Hall of Fame left tackle. I get experience-- you get none. I get Brady-- you get Foles. I get Belichick-- you get Doug Pederson. Do not overvalue the Minnesota win. Let me show the graphic again-- it's real simple. Since 2000, the last five times an NFC champion winner was in blowout fashion, the market overreacted and they all lost.

Isn't Philadelphia Carolina? An inconsistent quarterback in a team playing on great emotion-- most of their good players on defense-- isn't that what Carolina was? Isn't this Atlanta? Beat up on Green Bay-- Rise Up-- everybody was sure they had better players.

Folks, we've seen this movie before. We've seen it multiple times. The NFC spits out a different champion seemingly every year-- in fact, so does the NFC East. Just say it out loud. Look at history. Look at precedent.

With Carson Wentz-- with Jason Peters-- with Jordan Hicks-- this is a coin flip game. You've got none of them. Gronk is back. New England's healthy as they've been all year. They etched this into their schedule. This isn't a Super Bowl for them-- it's a game. Philadelphia player guaranteeing a "W". All wearing their Go-Pros-- making videos-- family and friends.

31-21. New England beats Philadelphia soundly on Sunday.