Eric Nuzum, SVP of Original Content Development at Audible (@ericnuzum)

Public radio’s dominance in podcasting is starting to wane. Only a few short years ago, the Top 10 shows on any podcast chart were almost exclusively those from public radio or produced by its former employees. Go look today. On most days, you are lucky to find more than a few.

My prediction for 2018 is that this trend will both continue and accelerate.

My confidence comes from two things: the evolution of the World Wide Web twenty years ago, and the market shares in radio today. Internet early adopters looked like those for most new technologies: white, male, and young. As it grew in awareness and popularity, the demographics slowly changed. Today, the demos look a lot like the general population. When someone says “everyone uses the Internet,” by and large, they’re right.

So if podcasting follows suit and starts to resemble the masses, what does that mean? Radio is a great proxy. Public radio is a healthy and robust presence on the broadcast spectrum, and yet, only about 15% of adults listening to radio listen to public radio. As podcasting democratizes, public radio’s market share should start to resemble radio. Not exactly (radio users are older than podcasters), but more similar than now.

I think it’s important to note that this isn’t necessarily a bad thing for public radio and its unique editorial style and values. Nor does it speak to the continued quality and importance of public radio content. In fact, while this is all going on, podcasts coming from public radio, or produced by its veterans, or produced in a similar style will still thrive and grow. It’s just that the world around them will get a whole lot bigger. And that’s good for everyone.