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By Peter Hailey

Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota are not going to be successful quarterbacks in the NFL. Not this year. Not next year. Not ever.

Why?

Because they both won the Heisman Trophy in college.

Now, the above argument seems totally flawed. How can someone say that winning the ultimate award in college sports — a historic trophy that gets handed to college football’s best player every year — is what dooms an athlete’s professional career?

Yes, I agree. On the surface, it’s a claim that makes absolutely zero sense. But if you take a second and look at the performances of recent Heisman winning quarterbacks once they made it to the NFL, you’ll see that Winston and Mariota are, in fact, far more likely to be busts than they are to be stars.

Let me educate you…

From 1996-2012 (I stopped at 2012 because Winston won the trophy in ‘13 and Mariota won it in ‘14) there have been 17 Heisman Trophy winners (while the NCAA doesn’t recognize your victory in 2005, Reggie Bush, The Left Bench does!). And of those 17 winners, 12 have been quarterbacks.

Here’s a list of all 12 signal callers, along with a brief summary of their NFL accomplishments (be prepared to stretch your definition of “accomplishments”). After seeing these names and, for the majority of them, the struggles they encountered on Sundays, you’ll realize that there’s a troubling trend of Heisman winning passers going on to be terrible in professional football:

Danny Wuerffel (1996) – Six NFL seasons, 25 games played, 10 starts, 4-6 record as a starter, 12:22 TD/Int ratio, 52.6% completion rate. Yikes.

– Six NFL seasons, 25 games played, 10 starts, 4-6 record as a starter, 12:22 TD/Int ratio, 52.6% completion rate. Yikes. Chris Weinke (2000) – Five NFL seasons, 29 games played, 20 games started, 2-18 (!!!!) record as a starter, 15:26 TD/Int ratio, 54.4% completion rate. At least he wasn’t 1-19 or 0-20!

– Five NFL seasons, 29 games played, 20 games started, 2-18 (!!!!) record as a starter, 15:26 TD/Int ratio, 54.4% completion rate. At least he wasn’t 1-19 or 0-20! Eric Crouch (2001) – Never took a snap as an NFL QB. Drafted by the Rams, who wanted to convert him to a wide receiver, but he ended up never even playing on Sundays.

– Never took a snap as an NFL QB. Drafted by the Rams, who wanted to convert him to a wide receiver, but he ended up never even playing on Sundays. Carson Palmer (2002) – 11 NFL seasons, 144 games played, 143 starts, 70-73 record as a starter, 224:155 TD/Int ratio, 62.6% completion rate. He’s arguably the best of the bunch, and he’s still under .500 as a starter!

– 11 NFL seasons, 144 games played, 143 starts, 70-73 record as a starter, 224:155 TD/Int ratio, 62.6% completion rate. He’s arguably the best of the bunch, and he’s under .500 as a starter! Jason White (2003) – Went undrafted, becoming just the third Heisman Trophy winner ever to do so. Never played a down in the NFL.

– Went undrafted, becoming just the third Heisman Trophy winner ever to do so. Never played a down in the NFL. Matt Leinart (2004) – Six NFL seasons, 33 games played, 18 starts, 8-10 record as a starter, 15:21 TD/Int ratio, 57.1% completion rate. Womp womp.

– Six NFL seasons, 33 games played, 18 starts, 8-10 record as a starter, 15:21 TD/Int ratio, 57.1% completion rate. Womp womp. Troy Smith (2006) – Four NFL seasons, 20 games played, 8 starts, 4-4 record as a starter, 8:5 TD/Int ratio, 51.7% completion rate. Congrats to Troy for being the first guy without a losing record.

– Four NFL seasons, 20 games played, 8 starts, 4-4 record as a starter, 8:5 TD/Int ratio, 51.7% completion rate. Congrats to Troy for being the first guy without a losing record. Tim Tebow (2007) – Three NFL seasons (so far), 35 games played, 14 starts, 8-6 record as a starter, 17:9 TD/Int ratio, 47.9% completion rate. Don’t even get excited about his record or his TD/Int ratio, because his completion percentage is ghastly and he has been forced to play special teams in the past. That should tell you all you need to know about how his quarterback career has gone.

– Three NFL seasons (so far), 35 games played, 14 starts, 8-6 record as a starter, 17:9 TD/Int ratio, 47.9% completion rate. Don’t even get excited about his record or his TD/Int ratio, because his completion percentage is ghastly and he has been forced to play special teams in the past. That should tell you all you need to know about how his quarterback career has gone. Sam Bradford (2008) – Five NFL seasons (so far), 49 games played, 49 starts, 18-30-1 record as a starter, 59:38 TD/Int ratio, 58.6% completion rate. For some reason, Chip Kelly trusts this guy to lead the Eagles.

– Five NFL seasons (so far), 49 games played, 49 starts, 18-30-1 record as a starter, 59:38 TD/Int ratio, 58.6% completion rate. For some reason, Chip Kelly trusts this guy to lead the Eagles. Cam Newton (2010) – Four NFL seasons (so far), 62 games played, 62 starts, 30-31-1 record as a starter, 82:54 TD/Int ratio, 59.5% completion rate. I’d say he’s the most productive Heisman winner since ‘96, and even HE isn’t over .500!

– Four NFL seasons (so far), 62 games played, 62 starts, 30-31-1 record as a starter, 82:54 TD/Int ratio, 59.5% completion rate. I’d say he’s the most productive Heisman winner since ‘96, and even HE isn’t over .500! Robert Griffin III (2011) – Three NFL seasons (so far), 37 games played, 35 starts, 14-21 record as a starter, 40:23 TD/Int ratio, 63.9% completion rate. Hey, finally, a guy who can complete passes at a rate that’s higher than 60%. Everything else, though, is not good.

– Three NFL seasons (so far), 37 games played, 35 starts, 14-21 record as a starter, 40:23 TD/Int ratio, 63.9% completion rate. Hey, finally, a guy who can complete passes at a rate that’s higher than 60%. Everything else, though, is not good. Johnny Manziel (2012) – One NFL season (so far), five games played, two starts, 0-2 record as a starter, 0:2 TD/Int ratio, 51.4% completion rate. Small sample size, but a horrific start for Johnny Football.

Man, those numbers are putrid. Are you guys still with me after that list, or did you turn off your computer out of pure disgust? Since 1996, Heisman winning quarterbacks have gone 158-201-2 as starters in the NFL. That is mindboggling.

Looking at those names, only Newton and Palmer can’t be described as total busts. While the jury may still be out on Manziel, Griffin, and Bradford, all three would have to undergo a significant turnaround in the coming years to end up with favorable NFL numbers, and as of now, you can call them disappointments. And as for Tebow, Smith, Leinart, White, Crouch, Weinke and Wuerffel? Total washouts.

The craziest thing about this strange phenomenon is that it’s not like things were better before 1996. Charlie Ward (1993), Gino Torreta (1992), Ty Detmer (1990), Andre Ware (1989), Vinny Testaverde (1986), Doug Flutie 1984) and Pat Sullivan (1971) all won the Heisman in school and were much less impressive on the gridiron after graduating. In fact, you’d have to go all the way back to Jim Plunkett, who won the trophy in 1970, to find a player who carried over his success into the pros (he won two Super Bowls with the Raiders in the 70s and 80s).

Sure, there are exceptions to every rule. Winston and/or Mariota definitely have the talents to become stars for the Bucs and the Titans respectively. However, judging by the overwhelming evidence against Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks going on to have terrific — or even respectable — NFL careers, it’s not smart at all to bet on either of them, because, for one reason or another, winning college football’s most prized trophy has an adverse effect on NFL performance. And anyone who says otherwise hasn’t taken a look at the numbers.

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