The Ohio State Buckeyes have opened the men’s basketball season in impressive fashion. The Buckeyes are 4-0, and have a notable blowout win over Villanova. That win propelled the Buckeyes into the Top 10 of the major rankings.

Much like in football, though, ESPN’s analytics are slow to catch up.

Much talk was made this football season, especially early, about where FPI ranked the Buckeyes. I explained, multiple times, that it had a very reasonable explanation. Justin Fields and Ryan Day were unproven, and therefore there were a lot of potential variance in how the season would go. As Ohio State performed well, FPI reverted to the top-end possibilities, and now Ohio State is setting records in FPI.

The exact same is true in basketball. ESPN’s BPI ratings currently put Ohio State at No. 21, with a projected record of about 21-10. The reason for this is clear, though. The Buckeyes have two good wins (which is why BPI’s resume has the Buckeyes at No. 6), but the overall SOS is No. 144 so far, while the remaining SOS is ranked No. 28.

BPI has not yet had the chance to learn to trust Ohio State. The Buckeyes played two great games, but were still unproven coming into the season. Much like FPI, BPI simulates games and seasons to get a bearing on teams. Ohio State’s simulations had high-end and low-end estimates. The Buckeyes are clearly performing at (or above) the high-end estimates so far. However, with so many new faces in key spots (and old faces that were very good but not elite in previous years), it makes sense that BPI still has the low-end possibilities dragging Ohio State’s ranking down.

As Ohio State keeps impressing–and overperforming its BPI estimates (something the Buckeyes have done in all four games so far this year)–that BPI number will skyrocket. Just how high is the limit will take time to tell. We might even have to wait for the December trip to Chapel Hill to face North Carolina in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge.