As of now, former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh is winning enough crossover voters to claim the lead in his race. | Getty Poll: Trump, Bayh lead in Indiana

Donald Trump’s choice of Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate has propelled the Republican presidential ticket to a double-digit lead in Pence’s home state, according to a poll released on Wednesday.

But Pence’s presence on Trump’s flagging campaign might not be enough to save a GOP-held Senate seat, with Democrats pinning their hopes on Evan Bayh to help them regain majority in the chamber this fall. And the two gubernatorial candidates seeking to succeed Pence are deadlocked, the poll shows.


The Monmouth University poll shows Trump leading Hillary Clinton in the presidential race by 11 points, 47 percent to 36 percent. Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson is at 10 percent, and 6 percent of likely voters say are undecided or prefer another candidate.

Trump’s advantage over Clinton in the poll is larger than the 10-point margin by which Mitt Romney defeated President Barack Obama in 2012. But it’s not because Trump is popular in the state. Only 33 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of the GOP nominee, compared to 54 percent who view him unfavorably. (Clinton, who isn’t actively contesting Indiana, is even more unpopular, with 62 percent having an unfavorable opinion of her.)

But Pence, who was elected only narrowly in 2012 and was seen as struggling in his reelection campaign before Trump plucked him to join the ticket, is well-regarded by voters, the poll shows. A majority, 54 percent, say they approve of the job that Pence is doing as governor, and only 35 percent who disapprove.

“Pence is likely boosting the GOP ticket’s prospects here as Indiana voters really don’t like either of the two presidential nominees,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray.

That boost isn’t carrying down the ticket, however. In the state’s open-seat Senate race, former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh — who only last month launched a carefully plotted comeback bid — has a 7-point lead over his GOP opponent, Rep. Todd Young, 48 percent to 41 percent.

The poll shows a closer race than a previous Democratic internal survey, conducted in the immediate wake of Bayh’s announcement last month. That survey, commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, showed Bayh 21 points ahead of Young.

As of now, Bayh is winning enough crossover voters to claim the lead, despite Trump’s advantage: 16 percent of Trump voters also said they would cast their ballots for Bayh, with Young winning only 3 percent of Clinton voters.

Democrats will need to pick up four Senate seats to wrest control of the chamber away from the GOP — if Clinton defeats Trump for the White House — and Bayh’s candidacy is seen as a boon to their efforts. The GOP is already defending seven seats in states Obama won twice at the presidential level, and Trump’s overall slide in the polls has put other states in play, too.

Republicans have mounted a substantial effort to discredit Bayh, who worked for a lobbying firm after retiring from the Senate six years ago. The poll indicates they have made little headway so far, though there are still voters for whom Bayh is undefined: 46 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Bayh, while only 19 percent view him unfavorably. But more than a third, 35 percent, said they have no opinion of Bayh, who served two terms in the Senate, and two terms as governor prior to that.

The poll was in the field as CNN published a report questioning Bayh’s claims that he stayed in Indiana after leaving the Senate in early 2011; Bayh owned two residences in Washington but kept a condo in Indianapolis.

In the governor’s race, Pence’s replacement on the ballot, Republican Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb, is running only one point ahead of Democrat John Gregg, 42 percent to 41 percent. Gregg, who lost narrowly to Pence four years ago, entered the race expecting a rematch with the governor before Trump chose a running mate.

The Monmouth University poll was conducted Aug. 13-16, surveying 403 likely voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.