The chance of a significant shift in sentiment in the closing days appears slight. Dems limp to finish in Wisconsin

What seemed a few months ago like an unstoppable crusade to oust Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker now has the look of a marathon runner pulling up limp in the last mile.

Two weeks from Election Day, Democrats face the real prospect of defeat: The last three public polls of the race show the first-term Republican up between 4 and 9 points. Local Democrats are seething that the national party has been MIA from their recall effort. The state’s largest newspaper argued over the weekend that whatever Walker’s sins, he doesn’t deserve to be booted from office.


And with fewer than 5 percent of voters undecided, the chance of a significant shift in sentiment in the closing days appears slight, even as the campaigns prepare to launch their final advertising spree.

“We’re cautiously optimistic,” said Phil Cox, executive director of the Republican Governors Association, which has spent more than $6 million on ads castigating Walker’s Democratic opponent, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. “I don’t think the other side is going to be able to introduce new information about the governor. His image is relatively set at this point. Do I think things are incrementally moving in the right direction? Yes.”

Still, Democrats are unloading everything in their arsenal against Walker. The attacks extend far beyond their vehement opposition to the governor’s rollback of collective-bargaining rights that initially spurred the signature-gathering process six months ago.

On Monday, as the Wisconsin Democratic Party distributed a memo purporting to outline alleged felonies during Walker’s tenure as county executive, Barrett held a press conference to call on his opponent to release thousands of emails that are at the center of a criminal probe into whether his former employees conducted campaign business on government time.

Several of Walker’s former aides face charges for doing political work on the taxpayers’ dime in 2010, but Walker has insisted he’s not a target of the investigation.

“Walker is obviously trying to run out the clock and avoid accountability, but voters deserve the full truth before they go to the polls,” said Barrett, in a subtle acknowledgment he’s playing catch-up.

Walker, who spent the day campaigning with former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, dismissed the charges as “desperate.”

“They’ve moved a chunk of their messaging from jobs to ethics,” Cox said, “which tells me they think their hits on jobs aren’t working.”

“Isn’t the recall in itself becoming disingenuous?” said Walker spokeswoman Ciara Matthews. “They started this because of collective bargaining and now, right in the middle of the recall, there’s no mention of collective bargaining.”

But a top Democratic strategist, exasperated by claims that the party’s anti-Walker messaging is scattershot, said the multifront attack strategy is quite deliberate.

“One of the things we found when we polled is one message doesn’t work. It’s not a referendum on collective bargaining. There’s the job front, the women front, the John Doe [investigation]. The only way you beat Walker is you’ve got to hit all these things,” the Washington-based strategist said on condition of anonymity in order to speak candidly.

Beating Walker has always been “a heavy lift,” the strategist acknowledged. “But our strategy is solid” and there is ample money to execute it.

Aside from being vastly outspent, Barrett is also running against recall fatigue, observers on both sides say.

Democratic state Sen. Jon Erpenbach acknowledged he’s heard complaints from voters who’ve simply had it with a process that began shortly after a slate of state Senate recall elections in August.

“There are going to be people who don’t like Scott Walker, but they may not like recalls more. They feel criminally he hasn’t done anything wrong,” Erpenbach said. “But it shouldn’t matter if we like it or don’t like it. We’re here. That’s not a question anymore.”

The freshest evidence of Democrats’ frayed nerves came Sunday, when the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel — the voice of a region that should be strong Barrett territory — threw its weight behind Walker.

In a scathing, 349-word statement, state Democratic Party Chair Mike Tate unloaded on the newspaper, accusing it of propping up Walker’s “propaganda” and accusing it of “repeated journalistic lapses.”

“One need only read the Milwaukee Sentinel editorials AGAINST the Civil Rights Movement and FOR Joe McCarthy to remember how silly and reactionary a news organization can look in the hindsight of the ages,” Tate wrote.

Democrats don’t deny they’re fighting from behind, but they insist Walker’s lead is not insurmountable.

After spending nearly $25 million , Democrats argue, Walker is still polling below 50 percent and clinging to a single-digit lead that’s barely outside the margin of error.

They also say the gaping spending gulf between the two sides is narrowing in the homestretch.

“[Walker’s] raised more money than some third-tier presidential candidates. He should be crushing Tom Barrett, frankly. … Tom Barrett has not had much outside help at all,” said Barrett spokesman Phil Walzak. “For the first time, right now we’re getting to spending parity. In this last push, we’re going to have a fair fight.”

Tate predicted turnout would be higher than in 2010, when Walker bested Barrett by 124,638 votes. And Democratic Governors Association Executive Director Colm O’Comartun predicted the race would come down to turnout.

“I have no reason to believe enthusiasm isn’t high. It’s just going to be about getting the vote out,” O’Comartun said.

Brian Sikma, who runs a conservative media-tracking outfit in Wisconsin, believes if voters were set on dislodging Walker after just 17 months in office, they would’ve been convinced by now. But Sikma cautioned that it would be foolish to think Walker would stroll to victory in an evenly divided, polarized state.

“This is still a turnout battle,” Sikma said, “so it is a mistake to write off the outcome as certain one way or the other.”