HGC 2018, Phase 1, Week 4

North America:

Europe:

Map Picks

Map Pick Priority

Map Ban Priority

Hero Picks

Hero Priority by Region

Less Used Heroes

New Hero Performance

Head-to-Head and Duo-Queue Performance

Team/Match Analysis

Zealots - A Very Good Weekend

Team Freedom - A Very Tough Weekend

Leftovers - Hunting the Elusive First Series Win

LFM Esports - The NA Version of eStar, but Without the Results

Final Thoughts and Games to Watch Next Week

Hello again, everyone! Today, we're here to talk about the HGC! This is my new running series discussing the stats from the HGC each week. And of course, being the stats nerd that I am, I'm going to cover these matches in waaaaaay too much depth, and possibly drive myself crazy, all for your benefit and enjoyment! So....enjoy!Big shoutout to /u/Borania for providing the stats for HGC Korea!Be warned that there are spoilers in this post, so if you have not watched this week's HGC matches and wish to do so without being spoiled about the results,! Also, keep in mind that these are in-depth posts meant to cover a variety of statistics with tables and graphs. As such, they tend to be very long posts. Just giving fair warning!Each week in the HGC, teams from each region face off against other teams from their region. Each match is a Best-of-5 series, and there are six matches played per week in each region. The matches (and results) for the HGC this week were....vs Simplicity (3-1)vs Team Freedom (3-1)vs Team Freedom (3-2)LFM Esports vs(1-3)vs LFM Esports (3-0)vs HeroesHearth Esports (3-1)Diamond Skin vs(2-3)Team Liquid vs(1-3)Fnatic vs(0-3)Leftovers vs(1-3)vs Leftovers (3-1)vs Diamond Skin (3-1)The current standings for the league can be found on the HGC site at this location Below is my analysis of this week's HGC action. If you're having trouble reading any table in this article, you can see the table in full-size by clicking on it. Keep in mind that this analysis does not cover every single match directly, nor every single little detail, as that would be an exhaustive list of data that would take literal days to compile. While I always try to discuss all matches, I will focus this analysis primarily on details that I felt were interesting or relevant for this week. You are welcome to request any information that I do not provide in this analysis in the comments below, or on Reddit. I'm happy to share what I have!Below is a list of the pick/win rates of each map this week, as well as by region.1) Infernal Shrines (16.84% of all games)2) Towers of Doom (15.79% of all games)3) Dragon Shire (14.74% of all games)4) Tomb of the Spider Queen (13.68% of all games)Tied 5) Sky Temple (10.53% of all games)Tied 5) Volskaya Foundry (10.53% of all games)1) Infernal Shrines (19.32% of all games)2) Tomb of the Spider Queen (15.91% of all games)Tied 3) Battlefield of Eternity (14.77% of all games)Tied 3) Towers of Doom (14.77% of all games)5) Dragon Shire (13.64% of all games)1) Sky Temple (19.54% of all games)2) Battlefield of Eternity (18.39% of all games)3) Dragon Shire (16.09% of all games)Tied 4) Cursed Hollow (13.79% of all games)Tied 4) Infernal Shrines (13.79% of all games)NA shifted very little, with the only changes being an increase in Volskaya Foundry picks (enough to get it onto the top 5) and a very slight decrease in Dragon Shire picks. It seems that NA is the most willing to venture onto Volskaya, though we shall see if this holds when the new Volskaya changes take hold in the Nexus. Europe's priorities haven't changed much, with only Dragon Shire and Towers of Doom swapping places. Korea's map choices haven't changed much, with Cursed Hollow slipping off just a small bit and Dragon Shire going up. All three regions are still very much trying to spread out their options across most of the maps, with Braxis Holdout still being the odd map out.1) Braxis Holdout (banned 58.33% of the time)Tied 2) Battlefield of Eternity (banned 29.17% of the time)Tied 2) Volskaya Foundry (banned 29.17% of the time)4) Towers of Doom (banned 20.83% of the time)Tied 5) Cursed Hollow (banned 16.67% of the time)Tied 5) Infernal Shrines (banned 16.67% of the time)1) Braxis Holdout (banned 54.17% of the time)2) Volskaya Foundry (banned 41.67% of the time)3) Cursed Hollow (banned 33.33% of the time)4) Dragon Shire (banned 25% of the time)5) Tomb of the Spider Queen (banned 16.67% of the time)1) Braxis Holdout (banned 83.33% of the time)2) Volskaya Foundry (banned 29.17% of the time)3) Tomb of the Spider Queen (banned 25% of the time)Tied 4) Cursed Hollow (banned 20.83% of the time)Tied 4) Towers of Doom (banned 20.83% of the time)North America's chart is the same as before, with minor shifts between the 3-4-5 slots. Towers climbed to 4th, with Cursed Hollow sinking to tie with Infernal Shrines at 5th. Europe has kept its favored bans for maps, with only Infernal Shrines dropping off the list. The ranks did shift a bit, with Cursed Hollow swapping with Volskaya Foundry. Korea's ban rate on Battlefield of Eternity has dropped off the top 5, falling from 3rd to 7th in terms of ban priority. Combined with the slight increase in its pick rate, this suggests Korea is not as shy of playing the map as previously thought.Quick shoutout to HeroesHearth user KiwiKeys , who gave me an excellent idea to further improve this segment! By popular request, I will now provide Pick Rates and Ban Rates, in addition to the overall Popularity Rate and Win Rate figures.The top ten hasn't changed much, with all ten heroes from last week still on top. However, the bottom has shifted a bit. Tyrael continues to climb in priority (+4.73 p.p.), as did Abathur (+2.25 p.p.). Dehaka stays steady in his usage, which actually sends him up the charts thanks to a drop in popularity for Anub'arak and Malthael (-3.01 p.p. and -9.37 p.p. respectively). All three of the top heroes have seen very small drops in popularity but remain dominant atop the charts.NA replaced Tassadar with Abathur at the top of its charts, but otherwise remained mostly the same. Tyrael climbed up the ladder a bit, as he has in every region, but the top six slots in NA remain the same as the previous week, with only minor shifts elsewhere. EU saw a huge shakeup as the 7th-10th place heroes from last week (Arthas, Gul'dan, Anub'arak, and Rehgar) all lost their seeding in the top ten, replaced by Tracer, Muradin, Dehaka, and E.T.C., respectively. These aren't entirely surprising results, as Europe has put renewed emphasis on Tracer for her quick blowup potential, and each of the warriors in question have been fairly consistent heroes that have been on the top ten list at some point in the last few weeks, with the sole exception of Dehaka. In KR, Sonya has finally fallen from the top 10 (down to 13th at a 42.53% pick rate). E.T.C. and Tyrael are both slowly climbing in popularity in the region, while Abathur and Tychus have continued to decline in popularity. However, an increasing diversity in hero selection in Korea has kept Abathur and Tychus in the top ten for now.Ana, Chen, Cho'Gall, Samuro, Sylvanas, The Lost Vikings, Thrall, XulAzmodan, Kel'Thuzad, Li Li, Lt. Morales, Nazeebo, Nova, Sgt Hammer, ZagaraAlarak, Gazlowe, Murky, Probius, Raynor, Rexxar, The Butcher, Tyrande, Valeera, Varian, Zul'jinThe list has grown to 65 heroes used (60 NA, 51 EU, 49 KR), thanks to some surprise support picks in NA with a Li Li / Cho'Gall comp that didn't work, and a Lt. Morales "Juice Pirates" attempt that also fell flat. Discounting heroes who appeared less than once per week on average, we're looking at 48 heroes (38 NA, 33 EU, 36 KR), or aboutof the total roster appearing more than once per week on average. This is one hero more than last week, though it still indicates quite a gap in the use of the total hero pool. Hopefully, with upcoming changes, we'll see a shift in the meta that might encourage more use of lesser-picked heroes.Alexstrazsa (6.3% popularity rate, 43.75% win rate)Hanzo (89.26% popularity rate, 59.76% win rate)Blaze (34.81% popularity rate, 52.44% win rate)Alex is seeing fairly steady play as a niche solo support, with a slight drop in popularity but a climb in win rate over last week's figures. Hanzo's popularity continues to decline, albeit slowly, as teams are adjusting and preparing for the upcoming nerfs. Blaze has continued to surge tremendously, rapidly becoming a first pick choice and experiencing a steady climb in win rate as well. Remember, he wasn't played the first week (which accounts for 66 matches across NA/EU/KR), so for him to have a pick rate this high when he's only been available for around 75% of the total matches to date is a prettystatement about how much of a priority pick he has become. EU has played him the most so far, at a 48.86% popularity rate, but he's growing across all three regions.For today's discussion, let's look at Tyrael. His rework has brought him some seriously high priority, so how should you try to deal with him? Let's look at some of the heroes that he typically matches up against.Tyrael's win rate is actually not that solid since his rework, sitting at a 41.18% overall. This is likely due to the same thing that plagues Genji: over-prioritization by weaker teams often means that the weaker team gets him more often, and he is not able to overcome the skill gap between teams. As such, he fares rather poorly against most of the top heroes. That said, some stick out more than others. Heroes designed to provide strong poke like Hanzo and Greymane are still rather effective against him, although traditional "tank-killers" seem to be less effective against him than others. He seems to fare decently against traditional tanks like E.T.C. or Muradin, but struggles against heroes with less of a tank focus and more emphasis on picks and dives, like Dehaka and Anub'arak. Against healers, he's fared the worst against Uther (who can generally sustain his team past any of Tyrael's damage) and Malfurion (who is designed to face off well against dive heroes).Now let's look and see who pairs well with the new Tyrael so far in the HGC:With Tyrael's lower win rate, one would expect some less than stellar results from most pairings. However, some pairings seem to be doing rather decently so far. While Tyrael has seen less success with the traditional Greymane dive and not much success with the ever-popular Tychus, Hanzo has done rather admirably with him. How much of this is merely Hanzo's general strength vs how much of an actually decent pairing they are is still hard to say. Tyrael has also seen some success when paired with Jaina, although this would primarily be in the NA region, which favors Jaina the most. He does well as a off-tank with an E.T.C., and can play either role when picked alongside a Blaze (who also has some flexibility in his role selection). As far as healers go, he is currently the most consistent when he's in front of an Uther or Malfurion, which is no surprise as these are the most popular healers in the current meta.Let's look at the play by each team this week. We won't be covering all of the teams, of course, as that would make an already long post even longer. Rather, we'll be looking at just a few teams and matches who I felt deserved the extra analysis and attention. Also, remember that I've limited my coverage to NA/EU, since I have not been able to watch the KR games for myself. As such, do not expect any analysis of Korea's current standings.Zealots got the exact sort of weekend they wanted and needed in order to improve their standing in the league. Sitting at a 1-3 record, the squad came out and picked up two wins against Diamond Skin and Leftovers, which is a huge deal for them as it improves them to 5th place in the overall standings. Rather than facing down a potential Crucible visit, they're poised to break into the middle of the pack for the next quarter of the season.One critical point that the team may have to watch, however, is their drafting. With Hanzo changes on the horizon, he may well end up fading in the pro meta. This is not a good thing for Zealots, who has relied heavily on Cris's Hanzo play to help carry them up to where they are now, to the point where Cris's hero is the first or second pick in 80.77% of their drafts to date!Zealots faces Team Dignitas next week, and while it will likely result in a loss and no ticket to the Clash, they should be proud that they've done so well against difficult odds to this point. They should instead prepare for the fight to climb the ladder from here on out, which will be tougher than ever.Who would have expected this? The only undefeated team in NA dropped two in a single weekend. First to the team nobody would have expected them to lose to (Spacestation Gaming), and then another to Team Twelve. What happened? Honestly, this is a tough one to truly break down, but it seems their biggest struggle was against aggression. In both cases, their opponent typically brought the fight to them, which runs contrary to Freedom's usual dictation of the pace of each game they play. They also had some problems against the more unorthodox drafting tactics of their opponents. Less common NA picks like Arthas, Alexstrasza, Gul'dan, and Falstad seemed to keep them off their game. Their banning wasn't as on-point as it probably should have been, either. Spacestation was denied the early E.T.C. pick four times by Team Freedom, and it didn't interrupt their pace at all. They shifted Equinox to Anub'arak instead, who decimated Freedom's tempo and won Spacestation the series.However, perhaps the greatest weakness starting to show itself in the Freedom roster is the general lack of depth in Lutano's hero pool. While he plays a very strong carry, he is the only member of Team Freedom to have a hero pool of less than a half dozen heroes, and really, you could narrow that down even further to only three that he plays with frequency and success: Genji, Greymane, and Hanzo. This is a serious problem as all three heroes face nerfs in the upcoming patch, which will force him to start looking into expanding his pool sooner or later. However, this is a weakness that most teams can target, as it means his hero will almost always be their first or second choice (80% pick rate so far).Freedom will need to step it up again next week, where Simplicity is looking to improve their own standing and stay away from another trip to the Crucible.You can't help but feel for Leftovers at this point. They had three tough weeks of no map wins against some of the most well established teams in the EU. This week, they still couldn't secure their first series win, but they managed to secure some maps at last. They have shown that they can fight hard enough to win games....but now it comes down to winning more than one at a time, and the biggest first step they can take in that regard is to further expand their hero pools. Three of their team members have relatively narrow pools, making them easy targets in a counter-draft. If they can work on this, it will make it harder for teams to plan their draft knowing what Leftovers will bring to the table.--Leftovers's last chance to secure a series win before the quarter ends will be next week against Diamond Skin, the other team in the bottom of the standings with them. Could this be their chance to break the streak?I apologize in advance for this as it will undoubtedly come across as a bit harsh, which isn't my intention. LFM is clearly fighting very hard each and every series, and you can constantly see the growth. But at times, you can't help but feel like they're doing just a little too much experimenting. This weekend saw them bring out a Cho'Gall and a Li Li (in the same game), a solo healing Brightwing, and a Sylvanas....and they lost all of those games. Yet they kept deviating from the norm and doing rather odd compositions that didn't serve them well. LFM doesn't need to do this to itself. Their first game against Tempo Storm showed that they absolutely have the ability to draft a more standard composition and bring strong team fights to the fray against some of NA's best players. They need to have confidence in their ability to play the game like "everybody else", even if it's not as unique or interesting, because they're seeing more success when they play the same ballgame and bringing the aggression that others have shown.Another area which may need some work is Swabs's hero pool. While he has played a variety of heroes, he's only seen any success on two: Dehaka (the one he plays most) and Leoric. If an enemy team targeted these two heroes, it could start posing a problem. In fact, that's something Simplicity did, taking Dehaka twice in their series.LFM faces HeroesHearth Esports next week, another team that has on occasion pulled out some rather unique drafts. Perhaps this match up will be LFM's chance to show that they can play a more "standard" draft and punch with the best of them....or perhaps it'll be their chance to pull out our first NA Nova game. Guess we'll see. ;)All of this year's teams in Europe and North America are fighting their hardest to earn a spot among the top. While we have an early glimpse at who might be the best, there's no way of knowing what sort of chaos might shake up the roster in the weeks to come. Here are some games that I think you ought to pay attention to for next week!(Friday, 2/16 @ 2 PM EST)(Saturday, 2/17 @ 2 PM EST)Another critical pair of matches! Team Liquid and Tricked both need these matches if they want to increase their odds of a visit to the Clash, but their opponents are the 2nd and 3rd place teams who have already punched their tickets for Katowice. Zealots would have to pull off the most incredible upset to make it into the last slot, leaving these two teams as the most likely contenders. Who will be the final qualifier?(Friday and Saturday, Starting 2/16 @ 5 PM EST)There are three slots open for the Clash, thanks to this past weekend's crazy events. There is pretty much no "unimportant" match at this point for these teams. Team Freedom, HeroesHearth Esports, Team Twelve, and Gale Force Esports all need a win to increase their odds at going to the Clash, meaning that there isn't a single match that can be ignored this time. Make sure to bring your popcorn!Whew! Like I said, lots of data to go through, but this is my take on this week's action. That's all for this week. Please feel free to leave your comments on this week's HGC matches below, or on Reddit. I would also love to hear your feedback on this article and whether or not there are any aspects of the article that you'd like to see improvement on. I'd love to hear your feedback!