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According to our final polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump had a 91% chance of winning the Arizona primary.

Polls-plus forecast Polls-only forecast Chance of winning, based on state polls only. Chance of winning, based on state polls, national polls and endorsements.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges. Polls-plus forecast Polls-only forecast

Not all polls are created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages .

The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.

For the Arizona Republican primary, we’ve collected 14 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling averages.

*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.