



Over the past two years, several sportswriters and commentators have talked about the Seahawk Hangover – the idea that the high-energy, high-impact, highly-physical nature of the Seahawks takes its toll on their opponents such that it causes them to play more poorly the following week. This is casually observed in terms of wins and losses, as in the 49ers (otherwise) inexplicably falling to the Raiders last Sunday.

But is the Hawk Hangover a real phenomenon or just happenstance? Coincidence does not equal causation, after all, and just because there is an apparent pattern, doesn’t necessarily mean that the Seahawks’ physicality is the source of their opponents’ post-Seattle trouble.

So in a vague attempt at scientific analysis of this question, let us analyze the evidence from the 2014 season to see if the Hawk Hangover is for real, or if it is just another trope that lazy commentators use without evidence.

Hypothesis

The high-intensity, physical brand of football with which the Seattle Seahawks play takes a toll on their opposition such that their performance the following week falls off.

Methodology

Wins and losses are too nebulous of a category with which to judge the Hangover effect. Quality of opponent, for instance, means that a team might have won or lost, regardless of playing the Seahawks. For instance, a very good Green Bay was probably destined to beat a bad Jets team regardless of whether Green Bay was coming off a loss to Seattle. Yet Green Bay did not play all that well against the Jets, despite getting the win.

So if W/L is not the measure of the Hangover, what is? If the hypothesis is correct, then the Hangover would cause a drop off in offensive production and/or a decrease in defensive effectiveness vis-à-vis an opponent’s pre-Seahawk average performance. Therefore, I have compared each of the Seahawks’ opponents’ pre-Seahawk averages with their performance the week after they played Seattle. All of the statistics are gathered from pro-football-reference.com, and do not include the performance against the Seahawks.

If the hypothesis is correct, one would expect the effect to be greater later in the season, as players deal with the cumulative effects of the entire season, the bye weeks end, and there is less time to recover between games.

Offense Performance

Here is the offensive statistics for Seattle’s 2014 opponents.*

* Denver is omitted because it had a bye week following their game with Seattle.

** N.B.: There is no/insufficient "pre-Seahawk" data for Green Bay and San Diego. Therefore, the data presented here is the season average for the two teams from Week 4 and beyond.

Seahawk opponents experience a negligible decrease in passing performance (-5%), but a significant decrease in rushing performance (-23%) in the week after they face Seattle. Both of phenomena increase when you consider only week 7 and beyond.

Offensive Point Production

Opponent Pre-Seahawk Average Offense Points/game First Post-Seahawk Game Points Scored Percent Change Green Bay Packers** 33.1 31 -6% San Diego Chargers** 19.4 22 13% Washington DC 23.8 20 -16% Dallas Cowboys 27 31 15% St. Louis Rams 20.2 7 -65% Carolina Panthers 22.6 10 -56% Oakland Raiders 15 17 13% New York Giants 22.3 10 -55% Kansas City Chiefs 24.1 20 -17% Arizona Cardinals 23.7 18 -24% San Francisco 49ers 20.7 13 -37% Average Hangover Change 22.9 18.1 -21% Average Hangover Change after Week 7 21.2 13.6 -34%

Again, Hawk opponents experience a drop off in offensive point production – a 21% decrease. This is even more evident after Week 7. In terms of points, that is a 5 point drop off, which increases to a touchdown difference after Week 7.

Defensive Performance

Opponent Pre-Seahawk Average Pass yds/g Allowed First Post-Seahawk Game Pass yds Allowed Percent Change Pre-Seahawk Average Rush yds/g Allowed First Post-Seahawk Game Rush yds Allowed Percent Change Green Bay Packers** 246.5 166 -33% 124.3 147 18% San Diego Chargers** 234.9 205 -13% 112.9 87 -23% Washington DC 237.3 243 2% 87 74 -15% Dallas Cowboys 247.8 267 8% 122 156 28% St. Louis Rams 222.4 215 -3% 139.8 140 0% Carolina Panthers 250.7 270 8% 137.6 105 -24% Oakland Raiders 234.9 353 50% 130.1 118 -9% New York Giants 272.8 185 -32% 119 148 24% Kansas City Chiefs 205.3 172 -16% 115.6 179 55% Arizona Cardinals 263.2 358 36% 80.5 142 76% San Francisco 49ers 206.9 245 18% 92.9 85 -9% Average Hangover Change 2% 11% Average Hangover Change after Week 7 9% 16%

On the defensive side of the ball, opponents’ pass defense experiences only a slight change drop off in performance (+2% yards allowed). Rush defense experiences a greater decrease in performance (+11% yards allowed), but not as dramatic as the offensive decrease in performance observed above.

Points Defense

Opponent Pre-Seahawk Average Defense Points/game Allowed First Post-Seahawk Game Points Allowed Percent Change Green Bay Packers** 20.8 24 15% San Diego Chargers** 22.7 10 -56% Washington DC 27.3 30 10% Dallas Cowboys 20.6 21 2% St. Louis Rams 30.0 34 13% Carolina Panthers 27.8 28 1% Oakland Raiders 25.9 41 58% New York Giants 26.1 16 -39% Kansas City Chiefs 16.8 24 43% Arizona Cardinals 17.6 29 65% San Francisco 49ers 20.45 24 17% Average Hangover Change 23.3 25.5 12% Average Hangover Change after Week 7 23.5 28.0 23%

Slightly more significant than the total defense statistics is the point defense changes: Seahawk opponents allow 12% more points (approximately a field goal per game). The effect is larger after week 7 (approximately 4.5 points per game – enough to change the spread of a game).

Conclusions

It would appear that yes, Virginia, there is a Hawk Hangover. It seems to have its strongest effects on an opponent’s rushing attack and its rushing defense. That would be consistent with the theory that Seattle’s physicality takes a toll on both the offensive and defensive lines. Not only do the Seattle front seven deal out their fair share of punishment, but Beast Mode and friends also bludgeon the opposing line.

The Hangover has a lesser effect on the passing game, where in general, receivers, safeties and corners take less punishment than those who are contesting at the line on every down.

It seems grow stronger in the last half of the season, and that when you combine its offensive and defensive effects, that it is worth anywhere from 7 to 13 points against the team coming off its game with Seattle. It would explain not only how Oakland got its only two wins (with both Kansas City and Santa Clara nursing a Hangover), but how the Jets made it close against Green Bay, or the Giants made it close against the Cowboys.

It would take a lot more work than I’m willing to put in to see if any other teams have such a hangover effect, or whether or not other factors such as colder weather, injuries, elimination of playoff hopes, etc. are causal factors in the hangover.

One factor that also needs to be explored is if the hangover is not necessarily about physicality, but about strategy. It is often commented that Seattle’s defense finds a way to shut down the most potent aspects of an opponent’s offense, thereby giving a blue print to other teams on how to attack a given team. But it is also often pointed out that Seattle’s defense is not that complex on paper, but that it takes extraordinary athletes such as Thomas, Sherman and Chancellor to make it work.

Nevertheless, whatever the cause – physical, mental, or some sort of voodoo curse that Pete Carroll puts on his enemies using the blood they have left on the field – the Hangover seems to be for realz, yo.