I named the budget the Morrison budget on Sky News a while ago, but it was only to give the Minister for Social Services the credit he deserves. Joe Hockey is the Treasurer and he is not going away.

What you will see in Tuesday's budget drafted by Tony Abbott and Hockey is the new economic reality that they will take to the next election. So while they don't really have much of an economic plan, they are developing a political plan. The elements of the political plan will be steady as you go, occasional efforts to trim some spending, some necessary funding to bolster the vote but otherwise, watch out for more dull policy. And there will be some talk of a credible return to surplus. Many economists will be sceptical of that claim, but the federal government's AAA rating should last at least until the next election.

Social Services Minister Scott Morrison in between pre-budget interviews at Parliament House in Canberra on Monday. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

The government will talk about structural reform, but don't hold your breath for big reforms. As every day gets closer to the next election, the less likely the government will want to take on big issues.

Personally, I reckon the lack of real reform should be a big concern for everyone, but I also realise that the new political plan is not all bad if voters decide that Abbott is marginally better than Bill Shorten. On Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd, the truth is the drover's dog could have beaten either of them and Shorten is no better. He continues to pretend the fiscal mess left by Labor is somehow no longer a problem. As long as Labor denies the obvious, Shorten will not succeed.