Before the Vancouver Canucks can chart a course for their off-season, they will have to decide what to do with Dan Hamhuis. The 32-year-old, reliable stay-at-home defenceman is a pending unrestricted free agent and as such likely to receive considerable interest on the open market — the type that usually leads to a lucrative contract.

The Canucks can afford that contract, whatever it may be. They’ve less than $60-million spent against the salary cap for next season — though I’d temper any optimism therein with the sober fact that they’ve many, many holes to plug with that money.

So the question then becomes whether they should sign that contract, whatever it may be. We can answer those and more questions, on the other side of the jump.

The Value of Dan Hamhuis

Hamhuis is no longer the best-kept secret as a top pairing defender in this league, but that shouldn’t take away from the fact that one could do a lot worse on their second pairing. In fact, the Canucks did last season when forced to face this reality.

Though Hamhuis’ underlying metrics indicated an appreciable decline in his ability to drive favourable shot and goal differentials at the onset of the season, his value was made clear the moment the Canucks were made to suffer his absence. When a Dan Girardi slapshot to the jaw of Hamhuis forced him from the Canucks lineup on December 10th, their ability to even remain afloat at even strength evaporated concurrently.

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The difference between the Canucks lineup with Hamhuis as opposed to without is roughly the difference in quality between the Washington Capitals and Buffalo Sabres. Hamhuis’ injury was met with another wave of injuries to create a perfect storm effect, so I think this approach likely overstates his impact on the Canucks lineup from a possession standpoint. It’s not a perfect science, but reflective in some small way of his ability to keep the Canucks afloat at even-strength.

It’s fair to wonder how much longer Hamhuis will be able to maintain this level of play, though. The ageing curve is especially cruel as players step into their mid-thirties. There’s also the matter of injuries which have only served to expedite the process — Hamhuis has suffered devastating injuries in back-to-back seasons, first to his groin then his jaw. At what point do these injuries catch up, or compound, even.

Dollars and Cents

I’ve always felt that the closest comparable player to Hamhuis is Paul Martin. They play an eerily similar game — cool, calm and delightfully predictable. They’ve each an underrated offensive game, driven primarily by their ability to push play from their own zone with an excellent first pass. It appears as though my hunch is well-founded, too.





(Image from www.war-on-ice.com)

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Using Martin as a baseline for the contract Hamhuis is likely to receive, we’re looking at a four-year deal for $19.4-million. It’s not quite that simple, though. Martin signed his contract at 34, as opposed to Hamhuis, who will sign his at 33. Defencemen’s skill can often haemorrhage in their late thirties, so even that single solitary extra year on Martin’s birth certificate means a great deal.

It’s highly likely that the Sharks were able to keep the dollar value down on Martin’s deal by offering him a contract that will keep him employed into his age 38 season. That’s the price of doing business. If Hamhuis is willing to take the oft-mentioned “hometown discount” that’s likely the tangible cost attached to it. You can’t have your cake and eat it too. Hamhuis is selfless, but I think it foolhardy to assume he’s financially self-destructive.

So in all likelihood, we’re talking about a three-to-four year commitment in and around the $5-million mark. A slight raise on the $4.6-million the Canucks have paid Hamhuis annually since the 2010-11 season. One might quibble with the “raise” element, but it’s worth noting that $5-million against the 2015-16 season counts for considerably less as a percentage than the $4.6-million Hamhuis signed for in advance of the 2010-11 season.

So, Should the Canucks Sign Dan Hamhuis?

I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that Hamhuis can contribute to the short-term health of the Vancouver Canucks, or any other franchise for that matter. He’s no longer the modestly premiere defender hiding on one of the most effective shutdown pairs the league has to offer, but age can have that effect on people. Injuries too.

The question then becomes, does the value Hamhuis brings to the Canucks lineup next season outweigh the value relative to his cost in the two or three seasons that follow. Of this much, I am skeptical. At that point, Bo Horvat, Jake Virtanen and Jared McCann are all 23-years-old and entering their physical peak, which says nothing of the rest of their core group going forward. That is the exact point at which shrewd management is most necessary. That is how you beat the salary cap. That’s hard to do with a third-pairing defender on his last legs costing you $5-million against the cap.

In a perfect world, the Canucks can secure the services of Hamhuis on an expensive, two-year deal. They have the capital to afford that. This isn’t a perfect world though and Hamhuis would be foolish to throw away his last chance at a big payday for loyalty’s sake.

The thing to remember is that Hamhuis isn’t the sole defender capable of tilting favourable percentages in the league. There are other, cheaper, perhaps even better alternatives to be found. As much as it would pain Canucks to double down on Hamhuis related suffering and watch him vanish into the sunset, after securing nothing for him at the trade deadline, it might be the savvy business decision long-term. Two wrongs don’t make a right, they say.





