Even beyond Klobuchar’s rise, the biggest movement in New Hampshire in the past week has been Biden’s decline. He seems on track for a weak finish that would normally doom a candidate who was the national front-runner. But Biden will likely get a final chance to revive his campaign in South Carolina, because it’s unclear that any of his competitors can significantly dislodge his support among African American voters there.

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“I don’t think white voters out of New Hampshire are going to change the hearts and minds of southern African American voters,” says Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic consultant in South Carolina who is unaffiliated in the race and is African American himself. The voters in each state are like “vodka and Crown Royal—there’s a difference.”

For all the pressures confronting the second-tier candidates, even the new leaders are operating with significant limits to their own support that could ultimately scramble the race. Whether Buttigieg bests Sanders in the final allocation of Iowa delegates or vice versa, as challenges to the results continue, the victor will capture a smaller share of the delegates than any winner since the caucus began in 1972. Likewise, polls suggest it’s possible that whichever candidate takes New Hampshire may not win more than about 30 percent of the vote. (Jimmy Carter is the only Democratic winner of a New Hampshire primary since 1960 to attract less than 30 percent of the vote there.)

This fractionation marks a departure from the sharp winnowing that’s occurred after the first two states in recent decades. Since 2000, candidates who did not first win Iowa or New Hampshire have captured only five states. And not since 1992 have Democrats seen a race with more than two candidates winning states well into the process. Adding to the atmosphere of uncertainty is the presence of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who is spending unprecedented sums of money in the large states holding their primary in March. Though he has shown some movement in polls, Bloomberg could face his own hard ceiling, given how many Democrats say they’re skeptical of the former Republican.

Many theories exist for why Democrats aren’t consolidating more quickly around a few candidates. The most common explanation voters give for their indecision is that they prioritize beating Donald Trump above all else, and they are struggling to determine which candidate truly offers the best chance of doing so. Another factor is that the ability to raise money from small donors online makes it less likely that candidates will run out of money, which traditionally has been the principal factor forcing contenders to quit. The increase in media coverage compared with earlier races has had the same effect.