To be chosen as a rising star in the Quebec Liberal Party of old was an entirely different experience to that of any other Canadian political party, including that of its English-Canadian cousins. More akin to the style of European politics, where “the centre” and often unseen senior party counsellors seek out and then elevate potential new stars, that leadership culture could not be more different from the mouldy church basements of traditional New Democrats or the often bloody street-battles of Liberal organizational fights in Ontario or B.C.

Liberals, New Democrats and Tories outside Quebec share much in local political ritual. Riding associations are sacred, their queen bees demand and receive respect, and the leader had better smile when greeted by a half-empty room of 12 aging local activists who have turned out to hear him, after his three-hour car ride from the nearest airport. As a graduate of one political school, it understandably took Tom Mulcair time to learn and to respect these differences.

Following his election as leader his focus was first to tend his young Quebec flock. To some New Democrats he spent too much time on them and in Montreal. He was ill-served by a young, green, and too Quebec-oriented senior staff complement. About a year ago, as his poll numbers sagged badly, things changed.

First, he gradually reassembled some of the key players from the Layton campaign team, a group that had helped build the party from near extinction to the triumph of the 2011 Orange Wave. Then he reached out to that layer of old hands and seasoned campaigners essential to every political party’s organizational muscle. Finally, he persuaded a senior staffer from his Quebec City days to put his successful legal career on hold and to rejoin him in Ottawa as his chief of staff. The impact of the changes has been significant, to say the least. From being written off, as a likely weak third-place loser, Mulcair is now a serious contender for 24 Sussex.

His campaign team face strategic nightmares of their own compared to their competitors on the Red and Blue teams. First, they may have the deepest national campaign experience among the three, but the party has shallower organizational roots in many places than their opponents.

In massive sweeps, such as Layton’s in Quebec, and Notley’s in Alberta, that doesn’t matter. In tougher, more competitive races, it can mean the 3-5 per cent that determines the winner on the ground. For New Democrats, used to fighting tough ground games to eke out as many seats as possible, in this election for the first time it will be their air war that will determine the difference between 75-100 seats and a majority government.

Mulcair has made the transition from Quebec provincial to Canadian national politics, painfully slowly at first and then with a sudden lift-off. As a seasoned street fighter in Quebec politics, he is unlikely to be wrong-footed by a reporter’s question, or a debate jab. Repeated efforts to provoke him to anger have failed since his arrival in Ottawa, and seem less likely now than ever. He can safely leave the Trudeau attack to the Tories. He will need to constrain a certain condescension towards the youngest and greenest of the national leaders, as he needs to woo Trudeau voters, not insult their leader.

Two key differences will separate this NDP national campaign from any before it. First, the paid artillery available to its campaign leaders is closer to a level playing field with their competitors than ever in party’s history. Not only will the national campaign spend to their ceiling, so will a greater percentage of riding campaigns than ever before.

But the transformational legacy that Layton bequeathed to his successor is their fortress in Quebec. Never before has an NDP leader enjoyed the strategic asset of having 50-75 ridings as a rock solid base. The gap between their current 100-member caucus and the 175 required for a majority is wide. But, as recent events have demonstrated, when the political stars align, not unbridgeable.

Mulcair’s challenge is that he is the first party leader in the CCF/NDP’s 82-year history to make a genuinely competitive run for victory. Expectations, sagging so badly only months ago, are now sky-high. Persuading Canadian voters for the first time to extend the party that trust will be the test of his leadership.

Robin V. Sears, a principal at Earnscliffe and a Broadbent Institute leadership fellow, was an NDP party strategist for 20 years.

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