Analysis: Mack Brown very close to point of no return

George Schroeder | USA TODAY Sports

AUSTIN — For every college football coach in trouble, there finally comes a point of no return. It's sometimes hard to define in the moment; only later do we identify the event that sealed his fate.

If there's a change at Texas in a couple of months, we'll look back on the Longhorns' game against Mississippi. Not so much the 44-23 loss — though it was Texas' second consecutive dispiriting performance, with all kinds of reasons to suspect a hastening spiral downward — but at what Brown said afterward, and how he looked when he said it.

"I told 'em," he said, referring to his postgame comments to the players, "we've got a new start next week. We've got Kansas State. We could get all this righted by winning the Big 12 championship, and that's what they've got to do."

A few moments later, Brown added, "We win the Big 12 championship, we'll be excited, and that's all we've got left."

But how much does Brown have left? It's hard to tell. His comments were punctuated with sighs, and he looked every bit of his 62 years, drained, deflated and defeated — but then, he always has looked that way after losses.

More important is the context, which is an offseason in which Brown touted his team as ready to return to college football's upper echelon. And more immediately, after a week of questions about the program's future in the wake of a 40-21 loss at Brigham Young.

After the Longhorns allowed a school-record 550 yards rushing to BYU, Brown fired defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, brought in former assistant Greg Robinson, and said he wasn't panicking but fixing things. In the last few days, former players weighed in to support or to criticize. Texas President Bill Powers and athletics director DeLoss Dodds endorsed Brown. A story broke — and was vehemently denied by school officials — that Dodds would retire at the end of the year.

None of those developments is good. The only possible remedy is to win.

And after Saturday, when Texas' offense (without quarterback David Ash and big-play receiver Daje Johnson) was inconsistent and the defense still didn't tackle and the commentators on late-night cable TV debated if it's time for Brown to go, it might be a good time to panic.

Instead, in the postgame, the words sounded occasionally defiant, but the body language — Brown's, and collectively, the program's — was one of resignation. No one will be surprised if in a couple of months, Brown offers his.

Brown said the players gave great effort. But the standard at Texas is not playing hard, but winning big.

Winning the Big 12 is all they've got left, and even that might not be enough. The bar for Texas — always the expectation, and reset by Brown during the offseason, when he predicted the 'Horns would be very good — is to be elite.

In 16 seasons, Brown has won a national championship and played for another. But since the BCS title game after the 2009 season, the Longhorns are 23-18, and 11-15 in the Big 12 play. And it's worth noting that if the Longhorns do find a way to win the Big 12, it would only be the third conference crown in his 16-year tenure.

During that time, Red River rival Oklahoma has won eight. Brown's career has often been measured against Bob Stoops, who arrived a year later and tilted the series. Head-to-head, Brown is 5-9. For another pivot point, try Oct. 12 in Dallas, where a fourth consecutive loss to the Sooners probably would end any hope for Brown. And barring a complete and very unlikely turnaround — 10-2, anyone? — even a victory might not matter all that much.

At some point, momentum becomes irreversible. And the larger question isn't whether Texas can regain its balance this season, it's whether Brown can ever return the Longhorns to the top.

On the subject of rivals, the only good news Saturday came 106 miles away in College Station. Top-ranked Alabama's victory at least temporarily slowed the Aggies' swagger, but Texas A&M's ascent has played out in stark contrast to Texas' decline. After the loss — in a thrilling shootout that more than lived up to colossal pregame hype — the Aggies talked, only a little improbably, of winning out and remaining in the BCS conversation.

Meanwhile, after getting blown out for the second consecutive week, Brown pleaded for Texas fans' continued support.

"Keep coming," he said. "Let's beat Kansas State. Forget the coaches. Come for the kids."

It was hard to tell if the tone was quiet desperation — or resignation.

George Schroeder, a national college football reporter for USA TODAY Sports, is on Twitter @GeorgeSchroeder.