Fed funds futures rallied on the tepid employment report, Harvey damage

Fed funds futures rallied on the tepid employment report, suggesting reduced risk for a third rate hike this year.

Indeed, implied rates have slipped to about a 25% risk for 25 bp increase, from 30% previously, and it had been hovering in the 33% range for much of August.

Note that September employment data is notoriously volatile, though with the broad-based nature of sluggishness in the report, it could take some time to recover the lost momentum.

Analysts are still bullish on growth into year-end, especially with the amount of rebuilding that will be needed in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey (and with Hurricane Irma on the horizon).

However, it’s not clear there will be enough time between now and the December 13 FOMC decision to get the Committee on board for a tightening, especially if inflation remains tame.

AUGUST JOB REPORT

The U.S. jobs report undershot estimates with a 156k August payroll rise after 41k in downward revisions, though nearly all of the disappoint was concentrated in government, where analysts saw a 9k drop after 51k in downward bumps, and August payrolls historically underperform before upward revisions.

Analysts saw a 0.2% hours-worked decline with a workweek downtick to 34.4, and a 0.1% hourly earnings gain that left a fifth consecutive 2.5% y/y rise. The goods sector showed a 0.1% hours-worked drop despite a 70k payroll gain.

Analysts saw a 74k civilian job drop despite a 77k labor force increase that boosted the jobless rate to 4.44%, while the participation rate remained at 62.9%. Hurricane Harvey occurred after the BLS survey week and had no August payroll impact.

The disruptive effect of the hurricane may be fully offset by a rebuilding effect before the BLS survey week ending September 16, which lies a full three weeks from when the storm first struck.

HURRICANE DAMAGE

Hurricane Harvey could be the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history with a potential price tag of $190 billion, according to a preliminary estimate from private weather firm AccuWeather.

This is equal to the combined cost of Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, and represents a 1% economic hit to the gross national product, AccuWeather said. This is equal to a 25 bp rate hike by the Feds according to some estimates while others see that more like a 50 bp rate hike.

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