The wealthy Mexican nationals who used to spend the Holy Week before Easter shopping at North Star Mall or the Shops at La Cantera have fewer dollars these days and “no longer feel welcome” in the U.S., said Eduardo Bravo, the past president of the Association of Mexican Entrepreneurs.

That’s become evident by the dramatic drop in spending during the normally lucrative Semana Santa holiday week over the past five years. The strong dollar, weak peso and “Trump effect” are keeping Mexican travelers from the U.S., according to business leaders and an analysis of state tax records.

An analysis of sales taxes refunded to Mexican shoppers in San Antonio during last year’s pre-Easter period shows spending was less than half what it was in 2012, from about $9.9 million in sales receipts then to about $4.5 million in 2017.

Data for this year, in which Holy Week overlapped with the NCAA Final Four basketball championship, isn’t yet available.

Texas refunds sales taxes on items bought here by international shoppers who are leaving the U.S. within 30 days. They have to fill out export declaration certificates, commonly known as “manifestos,” to get the refunds.

The manifestos are viewed as a gauge of Mexican spending, as savings in sales taxes — in San Antonio, 8.25 percent — can add up. When making a once-a-year trip to spend thousands of dollars on high-end clothing and other goods, it makes sense to go to the tax-back kiosk and work with a licensed customs broker to fill out paperwork attesting that the goods are for export.

The decline mirrors that of the peso, which fell from an average exchange rate of 12.85 pesos to every dollar during pre-Easter week in 2012 to 18.64 in 2017. The peso plummeted to 21.92 to the dollar in January 2017, a record low attributed to factors including a drop in oil prices and the U.S. election. Ongoing drug cartel violence in Mexico played a role especially in the Rio Grande Valley, as highways from Mexican states bordering Texas have frequently been deemed unsafe for travel.

But the numbers also may indicate other things at play, such as the “Trump effect” playing out during the first months after President Donald Trump’s win in a campaign that insulted Mexicans by calling immigrants rapists and that put a heavy emphasis on a border wall and withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement. The peso’s drop from Holy Week 2017 compared with Holy Week 2016 was 7 percent. The drop in sales reflected by requests for sales tax refunds was 26 percent.

“I think this is a multivariable issue,” said Tony Payan, director of the Mexico Center at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. “Obviously, every time there’s a peso devaluation it tends to depress the purchasing power of Mexicans across the border. But my understanding is that the drop in the peso has to be very dramatic before it really makes a difference. Most people will make small adjustments here and there and continue to shop.”

The 9/11 attacks, in 2001, set off a sea change in southern border security, and hours-long lines to cross the border remain a reality. Payan said Mexicans have adjusted to the security situation by taking fewer trips or by flying, as Mexican carriers have added low-cost flights to and from cities such as Monterrey, a big source of Mexican shoppers.

“The response is strategic,” he said. “People consolidate trips and then they put up with the border hassle once and that’s it. I do think though that to these longer terms and natural patterns that we’ve seen over a long time is one more added thing, and that is Mr. Trump is really making a lot of Mexicans rethink their travel to the United States.”

Bravo, the past president of the Mexican entrepreneurs group, said Mexicans heard horror stories about clearing customs in the aftermath of the election and felt hostility once they were here.

“Definitely the main reason the manifestos are down is because the Mexican visitor no longer feels welcome,” Bravo said. “They may also find the visit less pleasant because of the perception of anti-Hispanic sentiment in some states.”

To San Antonio’s credit, Bravo said, the city has been aggressive in courting Mexican travel with special discounts and goodwill trips to Mexican cities. But increasingly, he said, Mexicans are looking to other destinations.

Travel analytics company ForwardKeys has tracked a surge of trips two borders north.

“The increase in Mexicans visiting Canada is dramatic,” ForwardKeys CEO Olivier Jager said in an email. “If you look at the past year to date, the increase is 75.9 percent. By comparison, the increase in Mexicans visiting the U.S. is 7.4 percent.”

Manifestos don’t show the whole story, as taxes on meals, services and hotel stays cannot be refunded and not every Mexican bothers to fill them out. Steve Nivin, an economist with the Sabér Research Institute, a think tank sponsored by St. Mary's University and the San Antonio Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, found that Mexican visitors spent about $47.7 million in Bexar County during April 2012.

While he hasn’t done any subsequent studies since, Nivin said it would make sense that a perception of hostility has kept some shoppers away.

“Whether it’s true or not, it’s the impression that drives the behavior,” he said. “It has a stifling effect on the economy up here.”

Ramiro Cavazos, CEO of the San Antonio Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, said the “Trump effect” was a third factor after the low peso and the safety concerns in Mexican border states such as Tamaulipas and Nuevo León.

“I believe that tourism to the U.S. is 7 percent down from all countries in the world to the U.S., and that clearly is true for Mexicans,” he said. “Just the hassle of people bothering you, asking for information about whether you’re a citizen or just the negative effect, the intimidation factor, an unpleasant environment that they perceive might be in the U.S. the now last year and a half.”

The good news is that the peso has rebounded a bit, with the dollar Thursday equating to 18.25 pesos, and there’s a sense among customs brokers that any “Trump effect” has ebbed.

Diana DeWall of Texas Tax Back, which operates sales tax refund booths in San Antonio and Houston, said activity this year did seem to be up, even as violence outbreaks in northern Mexico reportedly deterred some shoppers. She attributed that to a dollar-to-peso ratio that was no longer above 20.

But she said things definitely weren’t like the old days.

“We used to have lines out the door, they’d sit on the floor, we couldn’t even handle all of the customers,” she said. “We are having an increase compared to last year, so we’re thankful for that. ... But to get back to the levels we’d seen, that’s going to take some time.”