Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

For the second consecutive season, Indiana’s basketball season finds itself at a turning point as tension around the program begins to bubble up to the surface.

Through 14 games last season, the Hoosiers entered the new calendar year with a good but not great non-conference resume and a 12–2 record that included a perfect 3–0 start to Big Ten play. This year, the Hoosiers are 11–3 with just a 1–2 record in Big Ten play and are coming off of two consecutive performances that featured significant second half stretches in which the wheels completely fell off.

Save for a dominant performance against a then-ranked Florida State team, every game since December 1st has brought its own set of headaches. The Hoosiers are 4–3 against high-major opponents and have the toughest part of their schedule looming. They’ve failed to scored at least 1.00 points per possession in four of those games, three of which resulted in losses. Per T-Rank, Indiana has been one of the worst teams in the Big Ten during that stretch:

Source: barttorvik.com

Following a trouncing at the hands of Maryland in which the Hoosiers’ offense was once again devoid of any sort of rhythm or efficiency, Archie Miller expressed some frustration some of the commentary about his team’s offensive struggles.

While Archie Miller certainly knows more about basketball and basketball strategy than me and everyone reading this will ever know, it’s an interesting take to call it “complete BS” that his team can’t hit shots when his teams three-point percentages have declined in every year that he’s been at Indiana (32.2% in 2017–18, 31.2% in 18–19, 30.7% this season).

He then followed it up by stressing the need for Indiana’s backcourt to improve it’s play:

“I’m waiting for our backcourt to step up. They’ve been coachable. They’ve had moments when there have been good stretches. We haven't found the consistency from the backcourt. There are too many games when you look at our backcourt when they didn’t shoot it well, didn’t get many assists. If you can get two or three of them playing really well at the same time, our team is so much better.”

Indiana’s roster construction very clearly skews towards the frontcourt. It’s the 12th tallest roster in terms of average height, per KenPom. It doesn’t matter if it’s his own doing or the previous coaching regime’s, Archie essentially only has four scholarship guards to work with: Devonte Green, Al Durham, Rob Phinisee, and Armaan Franklin.

Despite limited options in the backcourt, Archie clearly needs more from his guards. But has he become too reliant on a frontcourt that doesn’t provide the spacing that this team desperately needs?

Spacing isn’t necessarily a cure for shooting woes. They’d still have to, you know, make shots. But wouldn’t it make sense to have more guys on the floor that have shown at some point or another that they can be capable perimeter threats?

Here’s a breakdown of Indiana’s depth chart over the last five games:

Source: KenPom.com

That makes sense. With a bevy of wings and frontcourt guys, it’s logical that Indiana would generally play someone with some size on the perimeter alongside two guards.

But here’s the kicker. During those five games, that’s almost always the kind of lineup that Archie Miller has played.

Here are the 10 most frequently used lineups over the past five games:

Source: KenPom.com

See? Two-guard lineups are ubiquitous. Notice the first note under the table depicting each player’s propensity from shooting from behind the arc. Aside from Damezi Anderson and Jerome Hunter — who only combine for four attempts from deep per game and are a combined 11–51 — the small forward position is essentially a non-factor from behind the arc. Justin Smith is a paltry 5–20 from deep and is yet to connect on a three in Big Ten play.

So it’s worth asking the question: why doesn’t Archie try out a lineup that features three guards?

Three guard lineups — or at least lineups with three perimeter players capable of knocking down an outside shot or handling the ball — are something that Archie has had a lot of success with in the past. His Dayton teams that made four straight NCAA Tournaments featured a slew of lineups with three or even four perimeter oriented players. Now, some of that was out of necessity given the roster construction, but the same sentiments have range true at Indiana.

During his first season, he regularly used three guard lineups despite having a similarly constructed roster:

Source: KenPom.com

And here’s last season, which features a large chunk of the current rotation:

Source: KenPom.com

This isn’t to say that a three-guard lineup is the answer. Every year of Archie’s Indiana tenure has generated a relatively similar offensive profile:

Source: KenPom.com

Perhaps the biggest factor in Archie’s hesitation go small is the health of Rob Phinisee. The sophomore is the only “pure point guard” on the roster, and injuries appear to be preventing him from taking a leap that a lot of people were anticipating this season. After starting all but three games last year and playing nearly 28 minutes per game, Phinisee has missed four games this season while playing just under 20 minutes per game off the bench.

It’s obvious to say that a return to form from Phinisee would pay huge dividends for the team. It would allow Devonte Green and Al Durham to more natural roles off the ball instead. Both have been serviceable sharing lead ball-handling duties, but both are more suited as secondary creators and scorers.

Despite what The Very Mad Online contingent of the fanbase says on Twitter or behind the disguise of a message board username, the team probably would not be better off without Green. He’s decreased his turnover rate to a career low that’s actually lower than any other guard on the team. He’s upped his offensive efficiency and has proven himself to be the team’s best three-point shooter and one of the only guys capable of creating his own offense in a pinch. He is guard Troy Williams. Sometimes he does good things and sometimes he does bad things.

As the Hoosiers prepare for a stretch over the next month that includes games against Ohio State, Michigan State, Maryland and An Actually Good And Not The Conference Laughing Stock Rutgers team, the frustration will only become more vocal from both inside and outside the program if the offense considers to sputter.

It’s very possible that things turn around without changing much. Sometimes a few good performances can change the narrative. And hell, going small or playing three guards together might not be the answer. It could certainly take away from things that Indiana does extremely well such as rebounding and getting to the free throw line.

But some of the benefits that it could bring (in theory, more shooting, ball-handling and better spacing to open up the paint) should be worth exploring if Archie Miller continues to harp on wanting more from the backcourt. Albert Einstein famously said, “the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results.”

It could be as simple as just letting the guys go out there and play together. We won’t know until it happens.