Burnt out prison cells belonging to Islamic State militants are seen in Fallujah after government forces recaptured the city. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani

An Iraqi air base critical to the impending offensive against Islamic State forces in Mosul may be too damaged to fully function. In June 2014, the jihadist group overran Qayyarah air base and the village surrounding it, which lie just 60 kilometers (37 miles) south of Mosul.

Though Iraqi troops retook the base July 9 after launching a protracted ground attack from Baghdad, satellite imagery taken September 13 shows the tremendous damage that Islamic State fighters managed to inflict on the base's facilities before they were forced to retreat.

By employing scorched earth tactics at one of the bases used to support the coming operation against Mosul, the group likely hoped to slow the coalition advancing on its positions in and around the city.

The Islamic State is still active in the area near Qayyarah, but the air base itself has been cleared of the group's fighters. The international coalition fighting the Islamic State is helping the Iraqi military to secure the base's perimeter so that it can be used to coordinate logistics.

The base is expected to serve an important support role for Iraqi forces before and during the battle for Mosul. The photographs obtained from our partners at AllSource Analysis, however, suggest that it may not be able to do so as a full-fledged air base.

STRATFOR

The satellite imagery shows the full extent of the destruction reported by Iraqi news outlets after troops recaptured the base. Based on the images, Qayyarah's runways still appear to be blocked by several obstacles the Islamic State left behind.

Moreover, the perimeter of a newly built wall surrounding Iraqi (and possibly US) military positions cuts across the main runway. Straight gashes in the concrete can be seen on either side of the wall. Iraqi army commander Col. Karim Rodan Salim claimed in late August that 95 percent of the base had been destroyed.

Regardless of the actual figure, it is clear that Qayyarah air base is not capable of hosting large transport aircraft at this point. (Considering the Iraqi-built wall stretches across the most important runway, though, this may not be the coalition's intent for the base.) Helicopters might still be able to operate from and transport equipment to the base, which would boost logistical operations in the region. Several other bases in nearby Iraqi Kurdistan will provide some assistance to the Mosul offensive as well.

The Pentagon, meanwhile, has announced that it will deploy several hundred more troops to aid the Iraqi government's efforts to rebuild the base.

Nevertheless, it is unlikely that the operation to retake Mosul will begin in October as originally planned. Beyond restoring Qayyarah air base's facilities and capabilities, the anti-Islamic State coalition still needs to concentrate a sizable force near Mosul. But debates on the use of largely Shiite popular mobilization units and Turkey's role in the fight have stalled preparations for the offensive, in all likelihood pushing it to the end of the year.

In the meantime, officials in Baghdad will have to contend with the fact that the air base was not the only part of Qayyarah to be demolished; the Islamic State also torched the village's oil fields. They are by no means the largest oil fields in Iraq, and their temporary loss will not deal a significant blow to Baghdad's revenue. Coupled with the damage to the air base, though, it could be a chilling sign of what lies in store for Iraq: As the Islamic State loses ground, it is making a concerted effort to ensure that its opponents cannot use the land or resources it leaves behind.