It was quite sweet of Rio Ferdinand to put in a word for his old club as John Stones makes up his mind about what to do with his future but was it good advice?

Would Everton’s England international centre-half really be a lunatic to choose Chelsea over Manchester United?

Assuming the 21-year-old is minded to make a move at this stage of his career, Chelsea appear willing to pay £30m or more for his services. That is the least Everton would demand, and given the player’s age, potential, pedigree and the general shortage of capable central defenders around at the moment that is what Stones is worth.

So we are not talking about a squad signing here, someone to cover for injuries or raise the quota of English players at the Stamford Bridge. Not even Chelsea would pay that sort of money for a fringe player, which is what Ferdinand seems to imagine may happen.

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Yes, as he is essentially being earmarked as a long-term replacement for John Terry the defender may find himself being introduced gradually into the side but that tends to be the reality for promising young players making the step up from domestic league to Champions League bracket. Stones has never played in European club football’s premier competition before, so it would be rash to promise him a regular berth in the team and ask him to run before he can walk.

José Mourinho probably estimates Stones is good enough to play Champions League football but would use this season as a transitional period to let the player adapt at his own pace, perhaps to learn from Terry’s experience and let the Chelsea captain – who’s coming up to 35 – take the occasional Premier League break. There is nothing wrong with that. It could be described as sensible planning.

Chelsea may not need Stones right now but they will certainly be needing him in the near future, and a season or so to settle in and get ready to step up to a higher level seems reasonable.

To turn Ferdinand’s pro-United argument on its head, what does it say about a Champions League club that can promise a regular start straight away to a player who has only just established himself at senior level with Everton and has a mere handful of international appearances under his belt?

Are United desperate or something? Ferdinand himself seems to suggest they may be.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Does Louis van Gaal know his best defence? Photograph: Matthew Ashton AMA/Getty Images

“I don’t think Louis van Gaal knows his best defence, that’s a problem in itself,” the former England captain admitted. “They don’t know if Chris Smalling is going to be fit, or Phil Jones, Jonny Evans or Marcos Rojo, so how can you build relationships?”

Quite. No further questions.

Chelsea have the tightest, meanest, best-organised defence in the country, whereas United are still a bit all over the place. It may be easier for Stones to displace Jones or Smalling, say, at United, than Terry or Gary Cahill at Chelsea but if you are genuinely ambitious which path would you choose? Chelsea are the Premier League champions and one of the few English clubs that can usually be relied upon to make progress in the Champions League, and they were the first to identify Stones as a target. Everton might have been miffed but Stones could only be flattered.

The two Manchester clubs made their interest known afterwards, rather as if Van Gaal and Manuel Pellegrini had been startled during pre-season to realise that Jones and Martín Demichelis were not only still around but not really keeping anyone better out of the team.

Ferdinand was not the only former player giving his opinion of the new United before the start of the season. Step forward Roy Keane, who thought Chelsea would again be the team to beat because they have the best spine, and if they land Stones as well they would be even stronger.

“If I was a betting man, which I’m not, I’d still go with Chelsea,” Keane said, while adding that United had bought a lot of players all at once and may find they need time to gel.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Roy Keane is backing José Mourinho and Chelsea in this season’s title race. Photograph: JMP/Rex Shutterstock

“A bit like the late 80s,” he said, referring to the time when United had a good manager in place and a decent amount of money to spend but still found it hard to turn an expensive collection of talents into a winning team.

That takes time. Fergie cracked it eventually but by his own admission the first few trophy-free years were nerve-racking.

Van Gaal is not quite in the same position. He seems to have been given carte blanche to bring some glamour back to United whatever the cost and the trophy return but time is the one thing he cannot promise.

He has just announced his intention to retire in 2017 and, although managers are notorious for going back on their word and staying for one or two seasons longer, it seems clear that Van Gaal’s period at Old Trafford will be more of a bridge to the future than the future itself.

Fair enough, perhaps Mourinho is not as secure as he looks at Chelsea either.

Anything can happen in football and, a few years down the line, Chelsea could be under new management and not looking such a steady ship.

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But the decision Stones needs to make is now, or in the very near future, not two years down the line. Ferdinand’s intentions are no doubt admirable but he seems to be confusing the present Manchester United with the monolithic institution he joined in the middle of the process of piling up 13 titles under the same manager.

United won the title in Ferdinand’s first season at Old Trafford. Success was more or less guaranteed. Saying no to the club in 2002 would have been as daft as turning down a move to Liverpool 20 years earlier.

Chelsea are not at that level of domination yet, though neither is anyone else. All a player can ultimately do is weigh up the situation at the moment and try to make an informed decision on how things may go in the future. Not only are Chelsea and their manager proven winners, the last time Mourinho quit the club he left a team and a gameplan so strong they continued to win major prizes in his absence.

Not even Sir Alex Ferguson can make that boast.

Manchester United will always have an allure of their own, and it could even be that Stones prefers to stay in the north of England, though anyone lucky enough to be in his position, trying to make a purely football-based decision would be daft to be dismissive of Chelsea.