Six years ago, I wrote a series of posts looking at the best returners in NFL history. Today, I want to update that list by examining the best punt returners in NFL history. As with most statistics, yards per punt return has fluctuated throughout most of NFL history. The graph below shows the average in this metric from 1941 through 2013:

I’m not quite sure why the average was so high in the ’40s, but I believe the dropoff in 1952 came when the NFL started recording fair catches in the denominator (I’m not sure when that stopped, either). Regardless of the reason, it’s clear that we need to adjust punt return averages for era. So here’s what I did:

1) Assign 15 yards for every punt return touchdown.

2) Calculate each player’s Adjusted Yards per Punt Return for each season, defined as simply (Punt Return Yards + 15*PRTDs) / Punt Returns.

3) Subtract the league average AY/PR rate from each player’s AY/PR average.

4) Multiply that result by the player’s number of punt returns, to produce a value-over-average statistic.

There are lots of drawbacks to this method — and I mention some of them at the end of this post — but I think it’s an improvement over the current ways in which we measure punt returners.

Let’s apply this formula to the 2013 season. The top punt returner by this metric was Dexter McCluster, who returned 58 punts for 686 yards and 2 touchdowns, numbers which led the league on all counts. That means McCluster averaged 12.3 Adjusted Yards per Punt Return; since the league average in 2013 was 9.6 AY/PR, that means McCluster produced 161 extra yards of value (had the AP selected an All-Pro punt returner, McCluster would have been the likely pick). The table below shows the amount of value added by every punt return in 2013; by default, the table displays the top 10, but you can change that number in the dropdown box on the left. As always, the table is fully sortable and searchable, too.

For McCluster, much of his value was the result of high volume, although maintaining above-average play over 58 punt returns is very impressive. Jeremy Ross, Tandon Doss, Marcus Sherels, and Devin Hester all averaged at least 15 AY/PR over 15+ carries, which puts them in the discussion for best punt returners of the year. And Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown, in addition to being the number one receiver, was also the fourth-best punt returner. That’s a pretty good year.

The two names at the bottom of the list are interesting ones. The punt returner who added the least value in 2013 was Leodis McKelvin, who gained just 180 yards on 32 punt returns, providing -126 yards of value. That’s pretty incredible, because McKelvin ranked as the number one punt returner in the NFL in 2012 according to this metric. The number one punt returner in 2011 was Patrick Peterson, and that was a season for the ages. But in 2013, Peterson graded as the second worst punt returner, picking up only 198 yards on 33 returns.

Let’s take a look at the 200 best punt return seasons in football history using this metric. As you can see, Peterson’s 2011 season ranks as the third best ever:

Desmond Howard’s 1996 season was incredible. His record 875 punt return yards will be tough to beat: he played for the best team in the league, and the Packers defense gave him 58 punts to return. To break that record, a punt returner will almost have to play for a team with a great defense, as it’s going to be hard to do much better than Howard’s 15.1 yards per punt return average. Then, in the playoffs, Howard continued his dominant return ways. He scored the first touchdown of the game against the 49ers via a punt return, and added a 99-yard kickoff return in the Super Bowl, which led to him capturing MVP honors. Also of note: Football Perspective favorite Pat Studstill’s 1962 season cracks the top 25.

The final step in this process is to convert these ratings into a career grade. The simplest thing to do would be to sum the values produced by each returner in every season of their career. I did that, and I’ve included that result in the table below, but I also included another measure that I think works better. Adding the grades for each season tends to award longevity over dominance, and a really bad season cancels out a really good season. Some might think those are good aspects of the system, but when we think of the best returners, we tend to think of them at their best. So the formula I used was to take 100% of each punt returner’s best season, 90% of their second best, 80% of their third best, and so on; I also did not include any season where the punt returner had a below-average grade.

Using this formula, Devin Hester grades as the best punt returner ever. Here’s how to read his line: His first year returning punts was in 2006, and his last was in 2013; for his career, he has returned 264 punts for 3,241 yards and 13 touchdowns, giving him a 13.0 AY/PR average. If you sum his values from every season, you get a total of 945, but by my preferred measure, he comes out with a value of 961, making him the best punt returner ever.

These results seem pretty reasonable to me. Players like Deion Sanders and Gale Sayers were great return men, but don’t rank high on the list for legitimate reasons. With Deion, he was the ultimate high risk/high reward punt returner: his 6 punt return touchdowns is impressive, but he seemed to be shooting for a touchdown or bust on every play. As a result, his average AY/PR is not all that impressive, and he only had one top-200 season (1998). For Sayers, he was more kickoff returner than punt returner, as he only returned 27 punts in his career. I’ll let you guys provide your thoughts on the rest of the list, but I’ll close with some flaws in the methodology.

Factors Adjusted Yards per Punt Return Does Not Incorporate

There are many variables that would go into a proper rating of a punt returner; here are just some of the big ones that are ignored in this system.