The last five years, with the exception of 2013, when the eight didn't change at all after round seven, have offered a little more hope to stragglers. The top eight after round six.. In three of those seasons, two teams have been able to force their way in, and in 2012, there was even a trifecta. Last year, Hawthorn and North Melbourne were the gatecrashers. The Roos would make it to a preliminary final, the Hawks, of course, a little better than that. So all hope isn't lost. But there is a significant school of thought that this season's final eight is as good as done and dusted even before we arrive at round seven, and given the state of those beyond the top group right now, it's not necessarily an off-the-cuff rationale. Take a look at the teams currently outside the eight. Basically, they fall into three categories. There's the big disappointments, those for whom performance has fallen a long way short of expectations, there's the group who could be on the up were things to fall in place, and those of whom very little was expected.

Without question, Fremantle, Collingwood and Richmond comprise the first group. While most didn't see the Dockers improving in 2016, they did think they'd at least hold their ground. Ditto for Richmond. The Pies, meanwhile, were the subject of much bullishness pre-season (and yes, I fell for it as well). Essendon, Carlton and Brisbane, meanwhile, were almost universally tipped to fill the bottom three spots on the ladder. More than a quarter of the way through the season, the odds on that scenario panning out remain short. Which leaves four clubs – Melbourne, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide and St Kilda – any of whom, should they get on a roll, could squeeze into the top bracket. Yet of that quartet, it's only Port Adelaide which has the sort of pedigree that suggests the Power can produce a major upturn off the back of their win over Richmond last Saturday night. The Demons, Suns and Saints have all produced good performances this season, but so have they underlined an at times massive gap between their best and worst. For Melbourne, it was a loss to Essendon in round two, and another pretty lifeless display against the Saints at the weekend. The Suns have now lost three games in a row, and were next to insipid in a 20-goal shellacking at the hands of Geelong.

St Kilda have been more arguably more consistent, but nonetheless smashed by two would-be finalists in the Western Bulldogs and GWS. It's all speculation, of course, but one telling measurement of the current bottom half of the ladder compared to its predecessors at the same stage of the season is percentage. And the numbers for the likes of the Power, Saints, Collingwood and Richmond don't read well. In 2012, at this stage of the season, four teams outside the eight still at least had percentages of more than 100. There were three each in 2013 and 2014, and last season, at least four clubs with more than 90. Right now, Melbourne are the only team with a percentage of 100-plus, and Gold Coast the only other bottom half side even with more than 90. The stragglers either can't score enough (see the bottom six) or are being scored against too heavily (see Brisbane, Richmond and Collingwood in particular). Even if those areas are addressed, the percentage deficit could well prove as damaging as another loss. Which none of those desperately trying to make up lost ground can afford, even in early May.

The round seven rule dictates that if you're not already in the eight, time is on the wing. And in 2016, there may be even less of it.