As he spoke to crowds of supporters in North York and dined with young professionals on King St. W., John Tory had to be elated Saturday with the latest poll numbers, which show his support surging to a new high of 48 per cent among decided voters — 22 points over either of his nearest competitors.

But Tory’s biggest progress is being made far from the downtown restaurant where he was having lunch. An Ipsos Reid poll released Friday shows he’s running ahead of both Doug Ford and Olivia Chow in the suburbs of Etobicoke and Scarborough, capturing a key demographic that historically supported Rob Ford.

The suburbs, where the mayor long curried favour by campaigning on tax cuts and stopping the “gravy train,” are a battleground that can’t be ignored, political analysts say. And 12 per cent of voters remain undecided in the Ipsos Reid poll.

“No one wins a mayoral race in Toronto without downtown and a suburb or some coalition of suburbs to rely on,” says Brian Kelcey, State of the City Research strategist and former campaign manager for David Socnacki.

“It is impossible to win the megacity without winning the suburbs,” Robin Sears, a political expert and principal at Earnscliffe Strategy Group, agrees. “It takes a lot of volunteers and a precise organization right down to the street campaign to capture those voters.”

Though the city is entering the final month of the campaign, Sears and Kelcey insist the race isn’t a done deal. They say Tory shouldn’t rest on his recent bump in the polls, even though the numbers define him as the suburbs’ new leader as well as a downtown heavyweight.

“This is the first time in recent memory that someone has been able to build support relatively evenly across the city,” says Kelcey. “The danger is that Tory’s camp gets cocky and assumes that it is in the bag because support is so broad. If support is broad, it is often not that deep.”

While he notes that Tory has been able to turn over Ford’s Etobicoke territory and Chow’s support in Scarborough, where she has a campaign office, Kelcey says “there is always a risk that you or your voters get so comfortable they feel they don’t need to go out to vote.”

For Tory — who, according to Ipsos Reid, leads by 11 points in East York, 18 downtown and 28 in North York — the trick will be avoiding “the frontrunner’s curse,” Sears says.

To ensure he stays on top, Tory spokesperson Amanda Galbraith says, the campaign will be “hitting every part of Toronto and blanketing the entire city.”

“We are campaigning all day, every day, seven days a week across the city,” Galbraith says. “We don’t take Ms Chow or Mr. Ford lightly.”

To win the race, Sears says, Tory must navigate a political minefield, avoiding negativity and striving to convince voters that he will “deliver a conservative agenda without the unfortunate parts of the Ford legacy.”

For Chow, he suggests, the final month should focus on catching Tory and reminding voters that she can offer a “new” and “progressive” Toronto.

And Ford, he says, will need to prove that he is “better than the behaviour that he is given credence to.”

For Chow and Tory, difficulties could come with any last-minute, bombshell revelations and dealing with the “Ford factor” — the term Sears uses to describe Doug Ford’s “hide and seek game” of declaring his intention to attend or skip debates shortly before they occur.

But more important than predicting what Ford will do — a feat many now declare impossible — is motivating people to get to the polls.

“A big factor is not just what percentage of votes people are winning in the suburbs, but whether the suburban voters can be convinced to invest an hour or two and turn out to vote in greater or lesser numbers relative to the turnout downtown,” Kelcey says. “There is still a month to go, and a month is a long time in politics.”

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