In a move that was surely requested by Jeff Pash or Ted Wells on behalf of the NFL, Exponent clearly altered their Wells Report figures so as to support the NFL's predetermined conclusion that the Patriots were guilty of tampering. You do not need a science or stats background to look at the curves in the below figures - curves that should be nearly identical - and see that their shapes and bounds are substantially different. And the manner in which Exponent distorted them (as we'll see below) led directly to their main finding that the Patriots balls psi drop could not be explained by environmental factors present during the AFC Championship Game, whereas the Colts drop could. So, their supposed view was: Colts, no tampering; Patriots, likely tampering. Recall that there was no statistical basis for Exponent's finding. They were entirely reliant on these figures to make their case.

I discovered the specific method by which Exponent falsified these figures in the course of reviewing retired scientist Mike Greenway's excellent work invalidating Exponent's psi simulations and exposing the falsification of the Wells Report game-day simulation figures. Below are Exponent's Figures 22 and 25, annotated to demonstrate what is going on here. Have a look, and then scroll to the bottom for explanations of each of the numbered items on the charts.

The actual halftime locker room period was about 13.5 minutes. Exponent took the 5 minute frame shown in the "falsified locker room period" on Figure 22 and and expanded the truncated curves to appear to be the 13.5 minute curves you see in Figure 25. So the time period on the top axis of Figure 22 is the time period on the bottom axis of Figure 25. How do we know this? Read on...

The starting point of each of the curves in Figure 25 corresponds to about what you see at the 30 to 45 second mark of the locker room period (just before minute 241) on Figure 22. Similarly, the ending pressures at minute 13.5 of Figure 25 correspond to what you see between minutes 245 and 246 on Figure 22. It's worth noting here that Figure 22 is based on Exponent's "Master gauge" psi curves, whereas Figure 25 is based on the "Non-Logo gauge" psi readings translated into "Master gauge" psi. However, this translation should have had very little impact on the bounds. The formula that Exponent used to get from Non-Logo to Master was: Master psi = (Non-Logo + 0.1444 psi) / 1.015 By this formula, a Non-Logo psi of 11 would equal a Master psi of 10.98 and a Non-Logo psi of 13 would equal a Master psi of 12.95. So, these minuscule shifts could not possibly explain the starting and ending points that we see in Figure 25. The football's skin is thick and thus naturally insulates the air inside the ball from the ambient air for about 30 to 45 seconds before interior warming begins (according to Figure 22). This initial flat period is noticeably missing from Figure 25. Similarly, the long, flattening tail of the curves as they asymptotically approach their pre-game starting psi (13.0 for the Colts and 12.5 for the Patriots) is not displayed in Figure 25 as it is on the curves in Figure 22. Combined with point #4, the shape of all of the curves is thus completely wrong, in addition to the end points being wrong as established in notes #2 and #3. Also, and this is hard to visualize, Exponent had to tweak the shape of the curves slightly in Figure 25 to make them look like realistic curves. If they had simply stretched them horizontally, this would have flattened the curves too much - making them look like straight lines. So, there was attention to detail in their falsifications. The Colts balls were measured at some point towards the end of halftime. In Figure 22, the Colts average psi (as measured by the referees at halftime) is only shown to be in the "expected" range from about 2 to 4 minutes. In the falsified curves on Figure 25, that time frame appears to be 6 to 9 minutes. In reality, on Figure 22, the Colts actual average psi measurement is well below the wet/dry range from 6 minutes onward. Obviously, the actual time period in question is not shown on the graphed portion of Figure 25. To brazenly mock Exponent, I have shown it off to the right of the graph. The Patriots average halftime psi measurement is below the "expected" range in both Figure 22 and Figure 25.

What does this all mean? First, Exponent's simulations were flawed. Both the Colts and Patriots halftime measurements fell below the "expected" ranges of the non-falsified Figure 22 transient curves that resulted from their flawed simulations (see notes #7 and #8 on that figure). The ranges should not have have been expected at all - the curves were not valid. Second, they falsified the Figure 25 curves to make it appear that the Colts balls deflated naturally (according to the Ideal Gas Law), whereas the Patriots psi drop could only be explained by tampering. Obviously, drawing that conclusion from this data is incorrect.





To restate and reiterate this: neither the Colts nor the Patriots actual averages were within the expected ranges of the non-falsified transient curves, because Exponent's transient curves were wrong to begin with. Exponent falsified data that was already incorrect! Why was it incorrect? Welcome to the rabbit hole.





Returning to Mike Greenway's above-linked work invalidating Exponent's simulations:

The football on the stand is surrounded by 72°F air. The footballs in the bag are surrounded by other footballs at 48°F and by air in the bag that is at 48°F. The bag prevents 72°F air reaching the footballs and therefore the heat gain and hence the pressure increase of the footballs in the bag is much slower than the football on the stand.



Exponent's error invalidates all of their conclusions related to their "football on a stand" experiments.

Exponent created all of their transient curves with a "simulation" that in no way simulated the actual game-day conditions. Their curves are derived from an isolated football sitting on a stand – rather than balls that were kept in a bag, as they were leading up to and during halftime of the AFC Championship Game. Again, Exponent falsified data that they almost certainly knew was inherently flawed before they even falsified it. Truly mind-blowing.