The Canada-EU comprehensive and economic trade agreement (CETA) would have boosted Canadian GDP by about $7.9 billion had it been place in 2015 — “a small effect” in a $2 trillion economy, according to new analysis from the Parliamentary Budget Officer, but one that’s still worth an average income gain of $220 per Canadian.

Released Tuesday morning, the report looked at four main changes that will result from the deal’s implementation: tariff reductions for goods; the reduction in trade impediments for services; the impact of increased patent protection for pharmaceuticals; and growth in foreign direct investment.

“For each item, the change is relative to 2015 where CETA was not implemented. So if the agreement had been fully in place for 2015, Canada’s annual exports of goods to the EU would have been $4 billion higher. Looking forward, as the economy grows, the gains will be proportionately bigger,” the report says.

“Canada will gain in terms of increased economic output (almost $8 billion, or 0.4 per cent of GDP, over the long term) and investment (0.6 per cent of GDP), even though the trade balance deteriorates. Greater specialisation and increased production efficiency lead to net economic gains.”

On the tariff reduction front, the EU is projected to see greater gains because Canada had higher tariffs than the EU. Exporters in both countries faced tariffs greater than 10 per cent on almost 500 products.

Overall, Canada’s trade balance with the European Union “will deteriorate slightly,” to the tune of about $2 billion in 2015 dollars.

Agriculture, forestry and fishing, metals and minerals are the big winners on the Canadian side.

“For the European Union, its exports of textiles and apparel expand in particular, as well as transport equipment (automobiles) and food and beverages,” the report says.

“Those are areas of strong comparative advantage for the EU, given its long history of automobile development — particularly in high-end vehicles (Germany) — and its leadership in fashions (France and Italy).”

To analyze the impact on services, the PBO used the OECD’s services trade restrictiveness indicator (STRI), which doesn’t cover all sectors and likely understates the change, the PBO argues.

“Even though Canada’s deficit in trade in services increases, CETA-induced improvements in service-sector efficiency will result in a net gain in GDP,” the report says.

The increased Canadian patent protection for pharmaceuticals, in contrast, would have meant $71 million leaving the country in royalty and dividend payments in 2011 dollars or ($85 million in 2015 dollars).

Though the EU is Canada’s second-largest merchandise export market — worth $39.8 billion in 2016 and almost double what went to China ($21 billion) — the PBO analysis also highlights an important fact in the context of NAFTA uncertainty: that $39.8 billion is only a tenth of the exports that went to the U.S.

“Canada’s sales of oil and gas to the United States alone are worth more than all the goods and services it sells to the EU,” the analysis notes.

The Liberals’ CETA implementation bill, C-30, passed at third reading in February, with the Liberals and Conservatives voting for it and the rest of the opposition voting against it.

It’s currently before the Senate foreign affairs and international trade committee, which holds its next C-30 meeting on Wednesday.