The SNP is on course to win 45 of the 59 seats in Scotland at the General Election, one of the UK’s most senior election experts has claimed.

A new analysis by Professor Richard Rose, who founded the politics department at Strathclyde University, predicts the Tories will win May’s poll but with fewer than 300 seats, falling short of a majority.

Professor Rose’s seat-by-seat assessment has Scottish Labour falling from 40 MPs to just ten thanks to Yes supporters backing the SNP in large numbers.

The academic says the surge in Nationalist support will stop Labour getting more than 280 seats at UK-level, and the Nationalists will replace the Lib Dems as the third largest party in the Commons.

Professor Rose said: “In the four months since the independence referendum opinion polls have raised the prospect of a categorical rather than a marginal change in the position of Labour and the SNP.

“The SNP is now the favoured party in Scotland and Labour is trailing well behind it in popular support.

“At the May election, most Scots will not be voting for which Englishman should be in Downing Street but who can best represent Scotland’s interests in Parliament.”

According to the research, a collapse in support for the Lib Dems will benefit the Conservatives more than Labour because the Tories are in second place in more than two-thirds of the 57 seats the Liberals now hold.

The research, commissioned by asset managers Toscafund, calculates that collectively, third parties will once again take one-third of the national vote, but will be underrepresented in Parliament.

For example, he says The Green Party could win well over 1 million votes and still only get 1 MP.

SNP Depute Leader Stewart Hosie said: “The strong levels of support for the SNP reflect the fact that we always put the interests and welfare of the people of Scotland first. But we are taking absolutely nothing for granted and will work hard for every vote and seat between now and polling day.”

Despite the dire poll predictions, Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy insists his party will retain all of its MPs in Scotland and revealed he is targeting the Lib Dem seat of East Dunbartonshire.

Mr Murphy predicted a late turnaround in the polls, akin to the one enjoyed by the SNP in the 2011 Holyrood elections, for his party.

He said: “With fewer than 100 days to go until the General Election in May, changing our party is not enough. We need to change Scotland.

“I think we see a very late change in the polls.”

This research will feature in the next edition of Holyrood Magazine out tomorrow (Monday) and online at www.holyrood.com