On Tuesday afternoon, as Nelson Mandela lay in hospital fighting to recover from a lung infection, the ANC he once led was feverishly fighting off accusations by the country's top clerics that its leaders had "lost their moral compass".

"We know that even though the dream of a just, non-racial and prospering democracy is temporarily in eclipse – being throttled by the actions (or lack of it) of a generation of leaders that seems to have largely lost its moral compass – the people of South Africa are capable of rising to reclaim their future," the clerics warned in their letter to the ANC president, Jacob Zuma.

The clerics' denunciation of the party came two days after 33 prominent business figures called for action to arrest a decline in confidence in South Africa's future, warning the country could "unravel" if challenges in education, corruption and unemployment were left unresolved.

In response, the ANC secretary-general, Gwede Mantashe, said the critics were "mischievous" and the party should be allowed to run its own affairs. His reaction shocked very few: the ANC is routinely dismissive of civil society voices and is increasingly distant from the concerns of its poor, mass base.

As the 4,500 delegates descend on Mangaung on Sunday to elect new leaders and chart a new path forward after 18 years in power, the ANC is more divided than ever before. The party was founded by young black professionals on this same spot, 100 years ago. The house that the ANC's leaders built over the ensuing century, which was kept together through exile and prison by Mandela and his generation of leaders, is in crisis. In provincial conferences to nominate new leaders, three of the nine meetings had to be abandoned owing to squabbling and violence; a provincial leader was shot at; internal voting was allegedly rigged in the Eastern Cape to favour Zuma.

Restless poor



After a splinter group walked away from the ANC following Zuma's election in 2007 and his removal of the ex-president Thabo Mbeki, many are now openly speaking about the possibility of another rupture.

There are two issues the ANC must face. The first is leadership. Zuma is most likely to stay in power as he commands support from his home base, KwaZulu Natal, and at least five other important provinces. But the president, a master at manipulating internal ANC processes, faces myriad scandals that have divided the party. Last week it was revealed he had used a network of benefactors – including tapping Mandela for a 3m rand (£214,000) gift – who shelled out millions of rand to sustain him and his 21-child family. The country's public protector is investigating allegations that he built himself a R240m renovated mansion in his home village using taxpayers' money.

Many staunch supporters, such as the leading Aids activist Zackie Achmat, have declared that they would not vote for the party in the 2014 election if Zuma is returned as ANC president. Corruption in the ranks remains endemic – in the Northern Cape province the party's top five leaders are in the dock for fraud and corruption. They continue to shamelessly serve in government.

The second challenge is policy. In 18 years in power, South Africa remains glaringly divided. The ANC, in the face of a deteriorating economy and pressure from the poor, is flirting with policies such as the nationalisation of mines and expropriation of land, spooking domestic business and international investors who fear a Zimbabwe scenario.

The leadership battle has so far overshadowed policy issues. As the Marikana mine massacre and the rise in service delivery protests this year clearly showed, the poor are restless. The party will need to introduce some serious reforms to convince them something is indeed being done.

Unfortunately this is unlikely to happen. Party leaders frequently bemoan the quality of ANC members, accusing them of lacking "political education" and therefore being obsessed with the largesse that comes with party membership. As can be gleaned from the widespread support for the scandal-soaked Zuma and a general lack of interest in policy, except for the populist type, not much by way of rejuvenation will take place at this conference. Zuma will be returned to power, the ANC will ignore civil society voices and its grip on power will continue to loosen.

Mandela is old and frail and may well pass soon. The ANC he leaves behind will continue to be a shadow of its former self as it is consumed by corruption, arrogance, greed and a growing distance from its core source of power and legitimacy – the poor.