Longtime Republican dominance of local races during primary elections could be halted on Tuesday thanks to a surge in newly registered Democrats and that party’s contested presidential race.

The boost could help Democratic and more left-leaning candidates in city of San Diego races for mayor, city attorney and five City Council seats.

Two local political analysts said Friday that the boost is unlikely to flip any outcomes from Republican to Democrat, but could help more liberal candidates in races featuring multiple Democrats and force some previously unexpected November runoffs.

The Democratic boost won’t materialize, however, unless a large percentage of the party’s new voters actually cast ballots and presidential candidate Bernie Sanders does a better job getting his supporters to the polls than he’s done elsewhere in the nation, the analysts said.


Vince Vasquez, a National University policy analyst, said he’s confident that most of the newly registered Democrats, many of whom are ardent Sanders supporters, will end up casting ballots.

June Primary Election Preview

“This looks like a ‘blue’ primary and San Diego doesn’t get very many of those,” Vasquez said. “You could see Bernie Sanders and these new voters having a significant effect on the outcome of local elections.”

Primaries typically sway Republican in San Diego, despite registered Democrats outnumbering registered Republicans, because Democratic voters tend to turn out in much larger numbers during November elections than the lower-profile spring races.

Carl Luna, a political science professor at the University of San Diego, agreed that Sanders and the new Democrat voters could prompt a major shift on Tuesday, but predicted the electorate would be nearly evenly divided instead of leaning Democrat.


“It might be more purple instead of the usual ‘red,’” Luna said. “Republicans typically have the advantage in the primary because their demographic — older and wealthier — votes more often. But that may be down a bit with the presidential contest no longer active on the Republican side and the Sanders effect on the Democratic side.”

Luna said the expected spike in Democratic voters, if it materializes, has an outside chance of forcing Mayor Kevin Faulconer into a November runoff for re-election instead of clinching a victory with more than 50 percent of the vote on Tuesday.

Vasquez disagreed, predicting the surge won’t be enough to force Faulconer into a runoff against either independent Lori Saldaña or Democrat Ed Harris.

Both analysts agreed, however, that a Democratic surge would virtually eliminate any chance of Republican Ray Ellis clinching the pivotal District 1 race on Tuesday.


That means Ellis would face Democrat Barbara Bry in a November runoff that could shift the partisan majority of the council from Democrat to Republican if Ellis wins.

The analysts also agreed that a Democrat surge would make it harder for Democrat Ricardo Flores, considered the leading candidate in District 9, to avoid a runoff against either Georgette Gomez or Sarah Saez, who are both considered more liberal.

“I’m not convinced the Sanders voters would be going for Flores,” Luna said.

In the city attorney’s race, the analysts said a surge could also play a role in deciding which of Democrats Gil Cabrera and Rafael Castellanos gets into a November runoff with Robert Hickey, the lone Republican in the race. Vasquez said which candidate connects better with Sanders voters could be the difference.


Neither analyst said there was any chance the surge could threaten the chances to clinch re-election on Tuesday of Republican incumbent Councilmen Scott Sherman in District 7 and Mark Kersey in District 5.

They also said the surge would likely boost the chances in District 3 of Chris Ward over fellow Democrat Anthony Bernal, who is less liberal than Ward.

Vasquez called the surge in Democratic registration remarkable.

Of 254,355 newly registered voters in the county since Jan. 1, 115,112 are Democrats, 60,097 are Republicans and 66,288 are independents, also known as “decline to state.”


That means 45 percent of new voters this year in the county have registered as Democrats, compared to 24 percent for the Republicans, 26 percent for independents and 5 percent for smaller parties.

In the city of San Diego, Democrats are now 42 percent of the electorate, compared to 25 percent for Republicans and 28 percent for independents.

In addition, turnout among Democrats is expected to get a boost on Tuesday from the ongoing presidential primary battle between Sanders and Hillary Clinton, who hasn’t yet clinched the party’s nomination.

Meanwhile, Republicans aren’t expected to get a similar boost because of the sudden end to the party’s presidential race in early May, when Donald Trump became the presumptive nominee.


Luna, the USD political analyst, said he has some doubts whether a large number of the new voters will end up casting ballots.

“Turnout should be stronger, but we’re always looking for that tidal wave of turnout and then it typically settles to what it normally is,” Luna said. “I’ll believe it when I see it, but if it does show up it should help Democrats.”

He also expressed doubt about Sanders driving up turnout because of his rabid fan base.

Despite the presence of Sanders, Democratic turnout in primaries across the nation has been far below 2008, when Barack Obama defeated Clinton and eventually became president, and more similar to Obama’s re-election run in 2012, Luna said.


“For all the discussion of the Sanders turnout, it’s probably been a lesser impact nationally,” Luna said.

California, however, could be different because Sanders has touted Tuesday as a chance for voters to send a loud message in favor of his progressive politics, Luna said.

“This is the last chance for people to date Bernie Sanders — you can think of it as a last fling before you go off and marry Hillary Clinton,” he said.

Concerns that the surge in newly registered Democrats might not translate to actual votes are supported by early tallies of mail-in ballots.


New voters make up 16.7 percent of the city’s electorate, but they have cast only 13.7 percent of the early ballots, a lower margin than voters who registered before Jan. 1.

“Election day is going to be a test whether they show up in droves or don’t show up at all,” said Vasquez, the National University analyst.

Vasquez said he’s confident the new voters will come out in force on Tuesday, partly because many are young people not interested in mailing in ballots.

“They are part of the ‘selfie’ culture — they live to share what they do when they do it,” he said, adding that they often treat “I Voted” stickers as a badge of honor. “This is a new phenomenon of people really enjoying the retail experience of going to the polling location.”


Vasquez said he thinks support for Sanders will also be a major factor in higher turnout among new voters.

“He has tapped into this disaffected, alienated voter base who feel their votes don’t count for much,” Vasquez said.

Despite such optimism about turnout among Democrats and new voters, Vasquez said he still believes Mayor Faulconer will surpass 50 percent of the vote on Tuesday and clinch re-election without a runoff.

“Faulconer has just played it really smart,” said Vasquez, praising the mayor for governing as a moderate who has made few enemies. “And his opponents don’t have enough money to reach out to the Sanders voters.”


Faulconer described his approach to governing during a debate televised by KNSD Friday night.

“We need a mayor that works with everybody,” said Faulconer, noting that his last budget was unanimously approved by the City Council’s five Democrats and four Republicans. “That’s what we need as a city, particularly after the divisiveness we had under the last mayor. Even if you disagree with somebody, if you treat people with dignity and respect, you can usually achieve good results.”

During the debate, opponents Saldaña and Harris continued to attack the mayor on problems with public safety, vacation rentals, homelessness and rising rents.

Luna said such attacks, combined with a possible surge in Democratic voters, could force Faulconer into a runoff.


“If I was betting money on it, I would bet on Faulconer winning,” Luna said. “But I wouldn’t bet as much as I would have three or four months ago.”