“The arrogance of success is to think that what we did yesterday is good enough for tomorrow.”

--William Pollard

The Sporting News recently named Green Bay Packers General Manager Ted Thompson this years’ Executive of the Year, the second time he’s received the honor. It’s been a long road for the quiet leader of the Packers, a guy who has taken more than his share of flack from fans while rebuilding the team into a Super Bowl Champion and perpetual contender.

But there’s always a fly in the ointment, and while the honor is well-deserved, Thompson has his work cut out for him this offseason. The Packers, despite finishing with an NFL-best 15-1 regular season record, appear to have more holes to fill than a standard cheesehead wedge.

And some of it may be due to Thompson’s one Achilles’ heel: he lives in the moment of the team’s success or failure. Don’t get me wrong: I have grown to have a ton of respect for Thompson, and when he is in full-court pressure mode, he is as discerning of a roster-builder as they come.

But you only have to look back to the last time he won the Executive of the Year Award to see what a little success does. In 2007, the Packers unexpectedly flew into the post-season and hosted the NFC Championship game. It all appeared a storybook season for Thompson and head coach Mike McCarthy, with old Brett Favre playing his swan song for one more ring. Its was Elway and the Broncos, except we were going to be the winners this time.

But, as we know, the Packers fell one interception short of making the Super Bowl that year, and Thompson figured out how to fix it: it was time to hand the ball to his young, hand-picked quarterback and let Favre ride off into the sunset. There was a lot of hype that offseason, how the Packers returned nearly every starter on both sides of the ball, minus the guy that threw the interception. Expectations were high.

But Thompson’s offseason wasn’t one of shoring up the holes and getting that one player that would get the team over the hump. In fact, he traded back, out of the first round of the draft that year, taking what I called at the time a “luxury pick” in Jordy Nelson. While I’ve grown as fond of Nelson as anyone, the 2008 draft was loaded with backups (Flynn, Brohm), projects (Finley, Sitton) and ne’er-do-wells (Giacomini, Thompson, Lee).

And yes, while Sitton and Finley finally cracked the starting lineup and Flynn has proven to be invaluable as the backup quarterback, none were ready to contribute in 2008. Thompson only added one free agent to the roster, linebacker Brandon Chillar. Meanwhile, in addition to Favre, veterans Bubba Franks, Corey Williams, and DeShawn Wynn were allowed to leave.

It was addition by subtraction, a laid-back approach to offseason skullduggery that communicated self-assurance in a team ready to return to the playoffs. As we all can attest, 2008 was far from it. Amidst the highest of expectations, the Packers fizzled out to 6-10 and half the coaching staff was axed at the end of the season.

Not surprisingly, Thompson took a very different approach the following offseason, trading the farm to get a second first-round draft pick in Clay Matthews, bringing two immediate contributors from the draft.

And that might be Thompson’s one weakness: complacency. A feeling that we’re “good enough” when the wins keep on coming and the praise is filling your ears. What’s interesting is that’s not a trait a GM usually has. Sure, coaches and players (and fans) get complacent, perhaps spoiled by success, but a GM should never be. Once they are done putting together the talent over a long offseason and the 53-man roster is set, they should constantly be looking to upgrade any position on that team. Combing the waiver wire. Scouting the college ranks. Evaluating every player in every game.

Ron Wolf said it best: “You’re only here as long as it takes me to find someone better to replace you.” In 2008, Thompson valued projects over immediate impact, and in the end, it cost him and his team.

Fast-forward to 2010, when the Packers again pulled off the unexpected playoff drive, this time ending in a Lombardi Trophy. Fans were looking right away for the repeat in 2011. Again, expectations were sky-high.

But the 2011 offseason, marred by an extended lockout, was again a near-repeat of 2008. The draft was full of luxury picks (like returner Randall Cobb) and a smattering of project players like Derek Sherrod and DJ Williams. In free agency, longtime starters were let go, like Daryn Colledge, Nick Barnett, and Cullen Jenkins, and a slough of veteran depth also departed. Thompson didn’t bring in a single veteran free agent other than re-signing James Jones when no one else seemed interested.

It was assumed that the Packers, returning so many starters from last season, would only have to count on a few young players to grow into roles, particularly to replace the void left by Jenkins. And for quite a while, as the Packers soared to a 13-0 start, it seemed like Thompson had, once again, woven some special magic.

But, in the back of our minds, we saw this was a team that was peaking early, even if we didn’t want to believe it. The loss of Nick Collins, combined with unaddressed needs throughout the defense, pulled out the keystone and the entire defensive squad imploded, falling to the bottom of the league in yardage allowed. Nervous questions rang silently in our heads: did Thompson do enough? Did he do just enough?

Mike Vandermause of the Green Bay Press-Gazette approached Thompson in Week 11. He noted that despite being undefeated, the defense was showing increasing signs of being unable to get to the quarterback.

At the end of November the Packers were 11-0 and riding high, yet there was a nagging suspicion about their defense. When I asked Thompson about the lack of a pass rush, he replied: “I think we should just enjoy where we are.” That’s the same attitude Thompson seemed to take following the Packers’ Super Bowl title last February. Instead of aggressively upgrading his defense, Thompson sat on his hands and allowed it to weaken. The Packers had just won a championship, for which Thompson deserved tremendous praise, but his offseason approach suggested he was content with the defense.

On Cheesehead Radio, I kept trying to come up with the word that Vandermause was stumbling onto, the feeling the Packers were almost being “cocky”, or at least cocksure that everything was just fine. And, like Vandermause, when I or anyone suggested that an undefeated team had concerns, we were laughed out of the sports bar. How could you question a team that hasn’t lost? Bwahahahahahahaha!

Yet, here we are, just a few months later, after watching our team earn a first seed in the playoffs and get bounced out in their first game, on our own turf. It was a sobering moment, but there’s still a strong belief that this team is good enough to get right back into the playoff hunt next year, and even for years afterwards.

But you aren’t going to get that done with an “I think we should just enjoy where we are” attitude. The Packers are looking at a lot of needs on both sides of the ball. Some areas weren’t dealt with properly last offseason, like defensive end and outside linebacker. And now, we have some new needs: a safety to replace Collins, a cornerback to groom for Charles Woodson and give slumping Sam Shields some competition at nickel. We’re going to need to invest in another offensive lineman with the likely unavailability of project tackle Sherrod, and we may well need another tight end if Jermichael Finley leaves and Andrew Quarrless doesn’t return. Oh, goodbye Matt Flynn. Might need a quarterback, too.

In other words, this isn’t a luxury-picks-and-projects kind of draft. The Packers have a lot of needs to address, and it’s not often you find a 15-1 team with so many holes to fill.

Actually, it isn’t so hard to find. Just look at any dynasty team in NFL history, and take a peek at their offseason needs after their last great season. This is usually a sign that a great team's window is about to close. The checks and balances in the design of the NFL punishes successful teams, and it catches up to you in the guise of free agency and drafting at the end of each round instead of the beginning.

But the Packers have Ted Thompson, and while he might have succumbed to a bit of complacency this past offseason, don’t doubt for a second that when he feels his back is against the wall, he will be willing to do what it takes to address as many issues as possible.

This is more than just another offseason for Thompson. This is the end of one era, and the beginning of the other. In 2005, he took over a team and began the long process of building a winner, primarily through the draft. He made some tough decisions along the way and took a fair amount of abuse for them. But in the end, he was rewarded with two Exec of the Year awards and a Lombardi trophy.

But now he begins the new era, the one of reloading and restocking, desperately trying to keep the roster he created among the elite for as long as possible. Teams like the Patriots and Steelers have proven you can keep a group of core players and keep shuffling the cast around them and stay in the playoffs year in and year out.

Make no mistake: in this new era, long gone are the days when the only measuring stick Thompson had to face was the very short one of predecessor Mike Sherman. Ted is now working in the shadow of the stiffest competition he can possibly face.

Himself.