JJ Avila knows his NBA dream is a long shot

The Denver Nuggets considered him the best player at their predraft workout.

Houston was stunned by his skill set.

The 76ers were impressed by his basketball IQ.

Every NBA team J.J. Avila practices in front of walks away surprised. The 6-foot-7 post man from CSU isn't what they expected. He's leaner and stronger, can rebound like Rodman and pass like Nash, can dribble like a guard and defend like a forward. He's a complete player who has yet to hit his ceiling. He's the type of player they want.

So come Thursday's NBA draft, one of the five teams he's impressed will take him, right?

"I know. I just keep it realistic. There's very little chance of me getting drafted on the 25th," Avila said. "All the teams ask that in the interviews, 'If you don't get drafted ...'

"Well, I pretty much know I'm not."

No professional league is harder to break into than the NBA.

Not only are the rosters considerably smaller than its NFL and MLB counterparts, the NBA's draft has two rounds and only the first 30 players selected are guaranteed a contract. Get drafted in Round 2 and a team can ship a player off wherever they choose while retaining their rights, like the Boston Celtics did with former Colorado State University center Colton Iverson in 2013. They acquired him in a draft-day trade with Indiana before sending him to Turkey.

Most NBA hopefuls are better off not being drafted if they drop below the first-round so they can choose their future. Avila, humble enough to foresee reality, has been trying to decide his next step for months and still isn't sure which route to take.

Assuming he doesn't get drafted, does he pack up and move overseas to make a respectable living in a foreign league, or does he join the NBA Developmental League, where it's easier to get called up to the NBA but the tradeoff is making minimum wage?

"I think the D-League can be good if a team really expresses to you that there's basically a guarantee that you're going to play a lot and have a realistic chance of getting called up," said Adam Godes, Avila's agent. "In my opinion, the D-League is a tricky route, because you may start off a season playing 20 minutes a game, but when they bring a guy down from the NBA roster, you have a guy in front of you and now you're only playing two or three minutes a game.

"The average salary in the D-League is about $15,000, whereas a guy like J.J. can go overseas and make hundreds of thousands throughout his career — millions, potentially. Financially for a guy in the long term, the D-League doesn't make sense."

There is one other option, and if Avila wants a career in the NBA, it's probably his best bet.

Avila is praying — and his agent will be pushing seconds after the draft — for a spot on on an NBA Summer League roster, spending July in Las Vegas, Orlando or Salt Lake City proving himself.

Anthony Carter, former Denver Nuggets point guard, is already sold.

Carter was Avila's coach at the Portsmouth Invitational, a tournament of the best college basketball seniors played in front of NBA scouts, and was amazed by what he saw. Here was a guy whose size (6-7, 250 pounds) would lead you to believe he's one-dimensional, but Avila was stepping back and knocking down NBA-range 3-pointers with ease while disrupting ball movement in the paint on the other end.

Impressed — just like everyone else Avila crosses paths with — Carter offered to train him for free the remainder of the summer in Denver. The difference it's made, the former CSU forward said, is undeniable. He's down to 240 pounds (hopes to get to 235), is in the best shape of his life and is playing at a higher level than he was when the Mountain West coaches and media voted him a first-team all-conference selection in March.

"When I first saw J.J. warming up at Portsmouth, he looked like he was big and slow, then we get to our first game and he's killing everybody, and I'm thinking, 'Woah, this isn't the dude I just saw warming up 45 minutes ago,'" Carter said, adding Avila knew how to exploit defenders of all sizes. "I think he has a chance to make it in the NBA, to tell you the truth, because he does all the little things nobody wants to do.

"I think his size could be a problem if a team wants him but thinks he's undersized, but look at Golden State. The NBA is going to a smaller 3-, 4- and 5-man. ... Look at Draymond Green, he's 6-6, but does all the little things and J.J. can shoot the 3-ball as good as Draymond Green."

Avila hopes Carter is right. His dream of playing in the NBA is no different than any kid who grew up playing basketball, but in Avila's eyes, he's earned it. If his college basketball jersey read "San Diego State" instead of "CSU," Avila said, he'd be listed in the mock drafts and his teammates Daniel Bejarano and Stanton Kidd — both of whom have had select predraft workouts — would be getting more opportunities.

While there's probably some truth in that, UTEP's Vince Hunter and UC-Santa Barbara's Alan Williams — players from lesser programs Avila matched up against (and in Hunter's case, dominated) last season — are receiving more respect, projected by USA TODAY as second-round draft picks.

Knowing that can be frustrating, and if they do get drafted, Avila said, congratulations to them; just don't take it for granted.

"It is what it is. That's life. They're getting their opportunities and if they get drafted, they're going to have all of these opportunities and they better make the most of it," Avila said, "because there are guys like me everywhere that want them to slip up so we'll get our chance."

For insight and analysis on athletics around Northern Colorado and the Mountain West, follow sports columnist Matt L. Stephens at twitter.com/mattstephens and facebook.com/stephensreporting.

Size can matter

J.J. Avila's size is a blessing and a curse.

At 6-foot-7, 240 pounds, he played a power forward at CSU, but his size doesn't translate to a traditional position in the NBA.

On one hand, that's a good thing, said former Denver Nuggets point guard Anthony Carter. He can cause problems for bigger defenders by drawing them out to the perimeter and either shooting a 3-pointer or being quick enough to drive to the basket for a layup and beating them on the sprint.

But as some NBA teams, like the Golden State Warriors, are switching to smaller lineups, many still embrace traditional roles, which puts Avila in an awkward position trying to make a roster.

Avila at a glance

• Height : 6-7

• Weight : 240 pounds

• Position : Forward

• Hometown : McAllen, Texas

• Age : 24

• Notable : First team All-Mountain West selection. ... Averaged 16.7 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game as a senior. ... Weighed 267 pounds when he transferred to CSU in 2013-14. ... Started his college career at Navy. ... Had predraft workouts with the Jazz, Knicks, Nuggets, 76ers and Rockets.