Our country can now expect to see one of two governments – a right-wing/ultra-Orthodox coalition, or a smiley coalition.

The first will be tough, authentic, Liebermantine and Bennettesque – nationalism and Orthodoxy on one ticket. The second one will be friendly, Lapidian and Livnite, as collegial as a toothpaste ad – faux liberalism and modernity on a single card. The policy will be the same policy, and the occupation the same occupation, only the faces will be different. It doesn’t matter whether chief smiler Yair Lapid will be in the coalition or out, or if the choir of background smilers, Hatnuah, Kadima and maybe even Labor, are in or out.

The smiley government will beam at a world that is fed up with Israel and looking for a hint of a smile from it, at least for show. But this global grin will portend additional years of marching in place (smilingly). A right-wing/Haredi government might make the world even more upset with Israel than it already is – but this sour face might actually force us to stop missing opportunities.

The signal was given at Tuesday’s swearing in of the 19th Knesset. Everyone was smiling at everyone, but particularly at Lapid – Lapid with Benjamin Netanyahu, with Naftali Bennett, with Moshe Gafni, even with Ibrahim Sarsur – everyone was in a great mood. Brothers sitting together.

Israeli democracy taught us something during this last election: All you need to win is a captivating smile. Lapid smiled at everyone and Yesh Atid skyrocketed primarily due to his smile. We’d be better off forgetting this, though; a serious lesson in democracy, it isn’t.

Israel doesn’t really have that many reasons to smile, and certainly not to use smiles to cover up its exploits. The smiley government will also likely get bogged down in trivialities – sharing the defense and economic burden, Haredim in uniform, only 18 ministers and so on. Smiles and absurdities.

But the choice between the two types of government is actually quite serious. It isn’t too difficult to imagine, for example, how the expected visit of U.S. President Barack Obama would look with each of them. Spot the differences and decide which one you prefer.

Obama lands and is welcomed by the smiley government. Foreign Minister Lapid greets him; Minister for Diplomatic Progress Tzipi Livni shares his conversations, perhaps with Welfare or Finance Minister Shelly Yacimovich at her side. Sweetness and light. Netanyahu reiterates his commitment to the two-state solution, and Lapid sings the Beatles’ “With a Little Help From my Friends” to Obama and expresses his enthusiasm for negotiations with the Palestinians, as do Livni and Yacimovich, of course.

Once again, Obama is charmed. The last time that happened was after Netanyahu’s Bar-Ilan University speech. Once again Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will be dragged against his will into the ritual of talks, photos and ceremonies, as the world smiles.

Three or four years later, the truth will become clear: No to peace, as per the Netanyahu doctrine; an eternally united Jerusalem and a divorce from the Palestinians, as per Lapid; a Jewish state, as per Livni; social justice for Jews only, as per Yacimovich. And the occupation? There will be more settlements, more confrontations, more abuse, more demolitions, more killings and more tragedies.

So what will we have gained? Nothing. What will we have lost? Our last chance.

Scenario B: Obama lands and is welcomed by the right-wing/Haredi government, the one that understands Arabic – and English, too. Foreign Minister Bennett promises Obama to annex the West Bank’s Area C and establish the world’s second apartheid state, as he promised during the election campaign; Defense Minister Yair Shamir explains to the president that “you don’t make a state out of every one or two million people;” Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee chairman Avigdor Lieberman threatens the entire world and reminds everyone that a promise is a promise; Interior Minster Eli Yishai sends the West Bank, not just Gaza, into the Middle Ages, and the prime minister reiterates his commitment to the two-state solution – but by then Obama doesn’t believe a word he says.

The result: A furious U.S. president returns to Washington and decides to, at worst, leave Israel to bleed, or at best, to finally start exerting real pressure on Jerusalem.

The second result is our only hope. It will never happen if we get a smiley government.

