Even the most optimistic on the Government side will concede that numbers are likely to be very tight when the time comes to form the next administration. That’s good news for Independent TDs, write RTÉ's Mícheál Lehane and Conor McMorrow.

It means deals can be done in exchange for their support. These agreements invariably involve commitments to increase spending in the Independent TDs’ constituencies on things like schools, hospitals, housing and roads.

Described once by a former government chief whip as "unsavoury", these agreements are sometimes the glue that holds a coalition together for five years.

A certain understanding exists now between the outgoing Government parties and a small number of Independents about how the days after the election might possibly pan out.

None will talk about this publicly, and all will only say that their focus is solely on the election campaign.

But here’s what we believe to be taking shape beneath the political surface.

The Independents will be called upon if there are only a small number needed to copper-fasten the Government’s overall majority.

That would mean taking the number of TDs backing the Government above 79 - the new magic majority number in the next, now-158-seat, Dáil.

Most likely between four and seven TDs will be involved, because any group of individuals larger than that would be viewed as politically unstable.

The Government parties will resist doing business with the Shane Ross-shepherded Independent Alliance. However, at least two TDs from this group, both from outside Dublin, are understood to be willing to break ranks with the alliance if the prospect of holding the balance of power comes into view.

And at least one Independent candidate who looks well positioned to be elected is also part of the rough plan that’s being sketched in Leinster House.

It seems there won’t, in all likelihood, be any overtures made to Mattie McGrath or Peter Mathews. Ditto The Social Democrats and Renua.

That leaves a core group that could then hammer out an agreement to support the next government. We believe these are some of the likely TDs who may get a call if they are elected - and the Government needs their vote.

The Probables





Michael Healy-Rae TD

Constituency: Kerry

He watched his father support the two Fianna Fáil-led coalitions. Although politically created in the Fianna Fáil gene pool, before the Healy-Raes left the party in 1997, the notion of supporting a government spearheaded by Fine Gael would pose no ideological problems for him.

If the deal guarantees more spending on roads and public services in Kerry that the Independent TD can claim first, then he can be relied on to back the government in every vote.

The last Healy-Rae deal with Fianna Fáil promised spending of almost €71m on 26 Kerry roads over five years. The abrupt ending of the government and the economic crisis meant not all of it was delivered.

In what could form the template for any future arrangement, his father’s deal with the last Fianna Fáil and Green Party government ensured a senior civil servant in the Taoiseach's office acted as a "contact point" on a daily basis, and there was always speaking time available to him in the Dáil.

Expect more of the same this time.

Michael Lowry TD

Constituency: Tipperary

Already there have been calls made in the Dáil that the Taoiseach should rule out Michael Lowry as a potential part of the next Government.

Renua Leader Lucinda Creighton stated in the chamber that the findings of the Moriarty Tribunal made it imperative for the Taoiseach to give a commitment that he would not seek the support of the TD who topped the poll in Tipperary North five years ago.

That victory was no doubt aided by the agreement Deputy Lowry had struck with the Fianna Fáil and Green Party coalition.

The Lowry deal had more than a dozen pledges on health, including the development of a "surgery centre of excellence" at Nenagh Hospital.

School buildings, care centres for the elderly and a public swimming pool in Roscrea were also among the more than 40 local priorities set out in the agreement.

The deal also guaranteed the Independent TD access to the Taoiseach and his ministers, and he was told about constituency matters that concerned him at the same time as government ministers and TDs.

These ground rules are likely to be inscribed again in any new agreement brokered in the coming weeks.



Noel Grealish TD

Constituency: Galway West

He’s been there and done that. He wore the t-shirt and he was unfaltering in his loyalty. He certainly won’t throw his toys out of the cot. In fact he’ll be so loyal that the taoiseach will forget he’s in the cot.

First elected to the Dáil as a Progressive Democrat TD in 2002, the Galway West TD was subsequently elected as an Independent in 2011 with over 6,000 votes.

It’s believed he will be one of the first deputies approached if Independent TDs are required to deliver a Government majority.

Like his Independent colleagues on the Opposition benches – Michael Lowry and Michael Healy-Rae – he is not a member of the Technical Group. This would make him easier for Enda Kenny to negotiate with.



Denis Naughten TD

Constituency: Roscommon-Galway

"I’ll never forget Dinny Naughten. Imagine being the only Fine Gael man west of the Shannon to go against Enda." These were the words of one West of Ireland Fine Gael supporter in the aftermath of the failed heave against Enda Kenny in 2010.

Roscommon TD Denis Naughten very publicly backed Richard Bruton in that battle and subsequently parted company with the party he had won four Dáil elections with.

This followed the bitterly divisive downgrading of services at Roscommon Hospital in July 2011.

Naughten has carved out the role of an Independent quite well and has resisted invitations to join new parties such as Renua Ireland. He has been seen talking to Enda Kenny in Leinster House recently and the pair appeared to have started to mend their differences.

It’s expected he would be central to any agreement the next Government might reach with Independent TDs.





The Possibles

Thomas Pringle TD

Constituency: Donegal

The Donegal TD faces a big challenge to be re-elected in this new five-seat constituency. If he makes it, then any request to support the Government would require some major promises, he says.

These include a referendum to ensure the State’s water supply system could never be privatised, and another to change the Constitution to give greater protection to people’s social and economic rights.

The Independent TD would also like to see the Right2Change policies implemented by the next Government, and at constituency level he wants more spending on schools and roads.



Maureen O’Sullivan TD

Constituency: Dublin Central

It is 34 years since Independent TD Tony Gregory came to the multi-million Punt arrangement with taoiseach Charlie Haughey. The Gregory Deal saw a huge injection of money into Dublin’s north inner-city in return for his support for the minority Fianna Fáil government in 1982.

Following Gregory’s death in January 2009 his election agent Maureen O’Sullivan won the subsequent Dublin Central by-election and she held the seat in the 2011 General Election.

Ms O’Sullivan has been to the fore in highlighting the homelessness crisis and the problems of soaring rent costs.

On more than one occasion she has used her Technical Group speaking time during Leaders’ Questions to highlight cuts to funding for community groups working in the inner-city.

Over three decades since the Gregory Deal, restoring funding for these groups would certainly be a red-line issue if the late TD’s protégé were to go into Government.



Cllr Emmet O’Brien

Constituency: Limerick County

The Independent Councillor and barrister from Pallaskenry is seen as a strong contender to be elected in the three-seat Limerick County Constituency.

He is a former member of Fianna Fáil having joined at 18 years old, but left the party prior to the 2014 Local Elections after he was not selected as a candidate. He went on to top the poll in the Adare-Rathkeale ward, winning 2,270 first preference votes.

The key issues he is campaigning on include: the need for more gardaí to deal with rural crime, the problem of poor broadband that is damaging business development and the long waiting times for children in need of various therapies.

He says he is open to talking to any “lead party” seeking to form the next Government, provided he gets an agreement to improve his constituency.



Cllr Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran

Constituency: Longford-Westmeath

Over the Christmas break the Opposition and media were critical of how long it took for Taoiseach Enda Kenny to visit flood-stricken areas.

Eyebrows were raised when Micheál Martin was challenged for not initially visiting flooded areas outside Cork, when he said: "No, not outside Cork, they're not my constituencies."

And the image of Tánaiste Joan Burton and Junior Minister Ann Phelan falling out of a capsized canoe into shallow waters will live long in the memory.

While all this was happening, Independent Councillor Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran was manning a pump in Athlone.

"Who do you call when you want to speak to Europe?" is the famous question that is attributed to Henry Kissinger. A similar question emerged - yet again - over Christmas - "Who is in charge when the Shannon floods?"

As confusion reigned over who is responsible when the Shannon bursts its banks, ‘Boxer’ was one of the scores of people in his local community who rolled up their sleeves and got stuck into saving Athlone.

Coupled with welcome media attention, this has to have played out well for the former Fianna Fáil Councillor in the mouth of a general election. He won 3,700 votes in 2011 and this grew to 5,600 in the 2014 Longford-Westmeath by-election.

You have to go back a few years - to the era of Fianna Fáil’s Mary O’Rourke and Fine Gael’s Paddy Cooney - since Athlone had two Dáil deputies.

But with Independents on around 25% and upwards in opinion polls over the past few years, they will surely pick up seats and Boxer looks to be in with a good shout.

A pragmatic councillor, a deal on flood defences for Athlone would go a long way to securing Boxer’s place on the Government’s benches.



Cllr Sean Canney

Constituency: Galway East

First elected as an Independent Councillor in 2004, Sean Canney unsuccessfully contested the general election in 2011, when he won 5,500 votes.

East Galway is now a three-seater but a number of factors, such as the retirement of Fianna Fáil’s Mícheál Kitt, point to an opening for a strong Independent like Canney.

He’s part of the Independent Alliance and stresses the importance of that grouping’s Charter for Change. But if he were elected what would his own red line issues be before entering government?

"The key area for me would be about bringing in proper balanced regional development in East Galway and the West of Ireland," Mr Canney said.

"To have a properly stable economy we need to have jobs created in areas like East Galway and not all in the major cities.

"People in Dublin are suffering from overcrowding which has led to the demand for housing not being met.

"If jobs were created in rural Ireland people could be housed there and this could ease pressure on cities like Dublin."

Cllr Christy Burke

Constituency: Dublin Central



The former lord mayor has a high profile and won more than 1,200 votes in the north inner-city in the 2014 council elections, where he was first elected in 1985.

It will require a major effort though to get elected in this three-seat constituency where the Sinn Féin Deputy Leader Mary Lou McDonald looks on course to top the poll.

Burke, a member of Sinn Féin until 2009, has always identified homelessness and drugs as his main political priorities.

He says the drugs problem in the city is greater than it was in the 1980s when he became involved with the Concerned Parents Against Drugs Movement.

The Independent Councillor wants to see residential drug treatment units developed that could house hundreds of people at a time.

He also believes a multi-agency approach to rehabilitating drug users, which would focus on aftercare and employment, is required.

Cllr Ann Norton

Constituency: Clare

Ann Norton is a disability campaigner in Clare and one of the co-founders of the Clare Crusaders Clinic, which provides free therapy and specialist treatment to children with special needs in the county.

Based in the Ennis electoral area, she was elected to Clare County Council in her first election outing in 2014.

She says her sole focus is on getting elected but if the numbers were required what would her red line issues be?

"My main area of concern is the area of healthcare where there is a complete lack of services and support," she told RTÉ.

"Here in the Mid-West, we have a growing crisis in A&E and poor services for the elderly and disabled.

"I have a child with Cerebral Palsy so I have experience of the hospital system.

"A lot of money goes is into the HSE but where does it go and why does more not go to frontline services?"

She decided against joining the Independent Alliance and defines herself as "completely independent".

Michael Fitzmaurice TD

Constituency: Roscommon-Galway

Dubbed the 'Ming Dynasty' when he won the 2014 by-election to succeed fellow Independent Luke ’Ming’ Flanagan, Michael Fitzmaurice certainly established himself as an able TD very quickly.

He’s aligned with Shane Ross’ Independent Alliance but if the numbers required him, could he do business with Enda Kenny?

Rural development and assurances on flooding defences for the Shannon region would be some of the items high on his shopping list.

And after all that here come the health warning. It reads: elections are full of known unknowns.

Candidates that have not yet been spotted within the media and political bubble are sure to come into the fray and win Dáil seats.

Who is to say that some of them will not enter Leinster House and quickly become kingmakers in the 32nd Dáil?

By Mícheál Lehane and Conor McMorrow

Read more from Mícheál Lehane here

Read more from Conor McMorrow here