Iowa Poll: Iowans favor Democrats for Congress in 2018

Iowans favor electing Democrats to Congress over Republicans, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

Forty percent of Iowa Poll respondents say they would vote for a Democrat if congressional elections were held today, compared to 34 percent who say they would back a Republican.

The finding is notable because Republicans hold three of Iowa’s four congressional seats, including two seen as among the most competitive in the country in 2018.

The results of a so-called “generic ballot” question provide insight into how Iowans’ views have shifted after voting heavily in favor of Republican Donald Trump in 2016, said Nathan Gonzales, an elections forecaster and publisher of the nonpartisan Inside Elections newsletter.

“It sounds like voters are more skeptical about Republicans going into the 2018 elections,” he said.

Democrats are favored among women, all age groups, those earning under $70,000 and people living in cities and towns. A narrow plurality of 31 percent of independents say they would back a Democrat, compared with 28 percent who say they’d vote Republican.

In addition to the responses favoring Democrats or Republicans, 7 percent of respondents say they’d vote for a candidate from neither party, another 7 percent say they wouldn’t vote and 10 percent aren’t sure.

The results are starkest in Iowa’s 1st congressional district, which encompasses 20 northeast Iowa counties and is currently held by two-term Republican U.S. Rep. Rod Blum.

Despite the GOP incumbent, 47 percent of poll respondents in the district say they would vote for a Democrat, while just 29 percent say they’ll vote Republican. Those represent the highest Democratic numbers in the state, eclipsing even the 2nd District, where Democratic U.S. Rep. Dave Loebsack is a six-term incumbent.

“Holy smokes,” Gonzales said of the 1st District results. “That’s a big gap.”

Inside Elections rates Iowa’s 1st a “lean Republican” seat, while the Cook Political Report — another nonpartisan forecasting group — calls it a toss-up.

“If that number is even close to accurate, then it not only confirms that this is a competitive race but that the congressman is facing a difficult race for re-election,” Gonzales said.

MORE IOWA POLL:

The generic ballot question isn’t the only indicator that the 1st District is tilting Democratic.

Sixty-three percent of respondents in the district disapprove of Trump’s job performance, and 62 percent say the country is headed in the wrong direction — the highest readings of any district in the state.

The divide between supporters of Democratic and Republican congressional candidates is much narrower in Iowa’s three other districts. In the 3rd, which includes the Des Moines metro, 36 percent of respondents say they’d vote for a Democrat for Congress, compared to 35 percent who would vote Republican. The seat is held by Republican U.S. Rep. David Young.

In the strongly Republican 4th District, 39 percent say they’d vote for a Republican, while 36 percent would back a Democrat and 14 percent aren't sure. The seat is held by U.S. Rep. Steve King, an eight-term incumbent.

In the 2nd, where Democratic U.S. Rep. Dave Loebsack has held office since 2007, 44 percent of respondents say they'd vote for a Democrat, compared to 34 percent who would back a Republican.

The party holding the presidency typically loses congressional seats in the mid-term election; Democrats must pick up 24 seats to win the majority in the House.

The poll, conducted by Selzer and Co. of Des Moines, questioned 802 Iowa adults Dec. 3-6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll also tested the popularity of Iowa’s U.S. senators, Republicans Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst.

Fifty-one percent of Iowans approve of Grassley’s job performance, while 40 percent disapprove.

While still positive, those marks represent a low point in the long history of polling on Grassley’s popularity. His job approval rating hasn’t been so low since 1982 — his second year in the Senate — and his disapproval rating has never been so high.

The results continue a downward slide evident in Iowa Polls dating to early 2015, but may have been triggered by more immediate events as well. The poll was conducted in early December just as Grassley was receiving national headlines for a comment in which he said the estate tax rewards people who don’t spend their money on “booze or women or movies.”

The effect of that comment and the blowback it received is evident in the polling: On Dec. 3, when the initial Des Moines Register story was first published, poll respondents gave Grassley a 57 percent approval rating. On Dec. 5, when the quote was being widely circulated, just 42 percent of respondents said they approve of his performance.

The poll shows Ernst with an approval rating of 48 percent, compared to 38 percent who disapprove of her performance and 15 percent who aren’t sure. Those figures are largely consistent with polling from earlier this year and late 2016.

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted December 3-6 for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 802 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age and sex to reflect the general population based on recent census data.

Questions based on the sample of 802 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age— have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.