October was Pretty Damn Swell in Puerto Rico The Caribbean island of Puerto Rico couldn't ask for a better start to the swell season By Charlie Hutcherson

Published: November 4, 2016

November 4, 2016 Views: 2,389







October was Pretty Damn Swell in Puerto Rico The tropics and frontal systems combine to make October a month to remember on the Isle of Enchantment..





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Related When the charts aligned, even a West Coast'er knew it was time to head to the islands -- but his East Coast heritage surely helped Damo during the Matthew-inspired part of the month. Photo: Darren Muschett

This is a plot of the swell on the Rincon buoy (#41115) during the month of October. The blue line shows the significant wave height in feet -- notice how the height only dropped below 2ft for two short periods. The red line shows the peak period in seconds. The text at bottom identifies each of the four significant swell events during the month -- first was SW swell from Matthew's time in the Caribbean, then NNW remnant-Matthew swell, followed by NNE Nicole swell, and lastly, a frontal fall/winter swell mix.

Carlos Cabrero, display of appreciation for Nicole. Photo: Luis Santiago

LOLA wave height chart shows the remnants of Hurricane Matthew interacting with high pressure off the Eastern Seaboard of the US with hurricane force winds aimed at the Caribbean. To the north of Puerto Rico is the strengthening Hurricane Nicole. This yielded swell on the Rincon buoy of 8'@14-15secs from 340-345 degrees on Tuesday AM, October 11th, and 6-7'@13secs from 350 degrees Wednesday and Thursday. This produced multiple days of well overhead to double overhead surf.

Alejandro Moreda, comfy inside of a Nicole tunnel. Photo: Luis Santiago

After striking Bermuda as a Major Hurricane, Nicole lingered southeast of Newfoundland over the weekend of the 15th as a hurricane, interacting with high pressure over the US East Coast to pump out swell to virtually all ports in the North Atlantic. The Rincon buoy peaked on Tuesday morning, October 18th with swell of 6'@13secs from 5-10 degrees, producing well overhead surf for the region.

Screen shot from our Puntas HD Cam in Puerto Rico during the Matthew swell.



October was a really good month to be in Puerto Rico.

Looking into our extensive report database, we pulled the numbers for Maria's, our longest running spot report in the region. Historically, the spot averages 1.8ft surf height for the month of October, with around two days of chest high or better surf and five days of 'fair' or better. And this past month? Surf height averaged 3.8ft for the month, more than double the size of an average month. And there were nine days of chest high or better surf, over four times above an average month, along with almost three times the number of 'fair' or better rated days with fourteen.



What's even crazier is that these numbers only tell a part of the story. During many of the swell events during the month, which are discussed below, southerly winds were present for much or a portion of the period. This meant the westside breaks saw unfavorable conditions, while the more north facing breaks in the region saw favorable, offshore conditions that sometimes lasted through the hot day. Breaks in this part of the region can be bigger as well, so other spots outside of Maria's likely saw an even larger monthly surf height, more chest high or plus days, and more 'fair' or better days.





Historically, the spot averages 1.8ft surf height for the month of October. And this past month? Surf height averaged 3.8ft, more than double the size of an average October.



So what was responsible for the October sent from above? There were no major weather pattern changes or global cycles, like El Nino/La Nina, to tie it to but some fortuitous tropical activity can claim much of the credit. To break the swells down, we pulled the swell data from the



October started with Major Hurricane Matthew in the Caribbean delivering a non-typical round of SW/WSW swell and windswell to exposed spots as Matthew lifted north out of the Caribbean. After skirting the length of Florida and the Southeast coastlines, Matthew moved off North Carolina, where it underwent extratropical transition. The remnants interacted with high pressure over the East Coast to generate a hurricane-force fetch in the island's swell window. This delivered the strongest swell of the month with days of well overhead to double overhead surf for standout spots during the second full week of the month.



During this time, Hurricane Nicole was strengthening and lifting north of the island to impact Bermuda as a Cat 3 Major Hurricane. Then the hurricane lingered southeast of Newfoundland over the weekend of the 15th and pumped out swell to virtually all ports around the North Atlantic the following week, generating more well overhead surf on the island.



Things quietened down the end of that second week and into the start of the third full week of October before a mix of NNW/N/NNE swells capped off the final weekend with head to overhead surf. This mix of swells came from frontal activity off the Northeast US and resulting low pressure moving into the northern Atlantic.



So is this a positive omen for an active season ahead? Let's not get too carried away as a good transition month is not a reliable indicator for an upcoming season. Like we mentioned above, most of the activity was generated by tropical systems, or systems formerly known as tropical, and the sun is setting on that season. Instead, we'll look to the fronts moving off the US East Coast for the bulk of the swell activity as we head into winter.



The Climate Prediction Center re-raised the odds for La Niña conditions this fall back up to 70%, in October with a 55% chance they persist into the winter. During significant La Niña conditions or an event, the winter storm track shifts northward over the US, focusing storm and windswell activity on the northern half of the East Coast which can limit the storm fetch for the island. But since a significant event is not expected, we lean to climatology and generally expect a more typical season of surf ahead.



If La Niña is to develop, it is forecast to remain weak with most models returning conditions to ENSO-neutral during the winter, and we likely won't see significant or clearly discernible impacts to the weather or surf. We'll dig deeper in our Winter Outlook, due out early December, so watch for a more in-depth look in the coming weeks. Until then, keep watching the fronts for the next swell. But don't forget about October, because it truly was a memorable one. Our local Rincon spot reporter and photographer, Micah Weaver , reported that he surfed 22 of the 31 days. He usually thinks of October as two swells and two weeks of flatness -- this month you could have surfed almost the entire month he reports. The variety of swells and different wind patterns switched things up as well, and even the locals became more acquainted with less familiar breaks. Like we said, October was a damn good month to be in PR.So what was responsible for the October sent from above? There were no major weather pattern changes or global cycles, like El Nino/La Nina, to tie it to but some fortuitous tropical activity can claim much of the credit. To break the swells down, we pulled the swell data from the Rincon buoy and looked at each swell (see slide 2) over the month.October started with Major Hurricane Matthew in the Caribbean delivering a non-typical round of SW/WSW swell and windswell to exposed spots as Matthew lifted north out of the Caribbean. After skirting the length of Florida and the Southeast coastlines, Matthew moved off North Carolina, where it underwent extratropical transition. The remnants interacted with high pressure over the East Coast to generate a hurricane-force fetch in the island's swell window. This delivered the strongest swell of the month with days of well overhead to double overhead surf for standout spots during the second full week of the month.During this time, Hurricane Nicole was strengthening and lifting north of the island to impact Bermuda as a Cat 3 Major Hurricane. Then the hurricane lingered southeast of Newfoundland over the weekend of the 15th and pumped out swell to virtually all ports around the North Atlantic the following week, generating more well overhead surf on the island.Things quietened down the end of that second week and into the start of the third full week of October before a mix of NNW/N/NNE swells capped off the final weekend with head to overhead surf. This mix of swells came from frontal activity off the Northeast US and resulting low pressure moving into the northern Atlantic.So is this a positive omen for an active season ahead? Let's not get too carried away as a good transition month is not a reliable indicator for an upcoming season. Like we mentioned above, most of the activity was generated by tropical systems, or systems formerly known as tropical, and the sun is setting on that season. Instead, we'll look to the fronts moving off the US East Coast for the bulk of the swell activity as we head into winter.The Climate Prediction Center re-raised the odds for La Niña conditions this fall back up to 70%, in October with a 55% chance they persist into the winter. During significant La Niña conditions or an event, the winter storm track shifts northward over the US, focusing storm and windswell activity on the northern half of the East Coast which can limit the storm fetch for the island. But since a significant event is not expected, we lean to climatology and generally expect a more typical season of surf ahead.If La Niña is to develop, it is forecast to remain weak with most models returning conditions to ENSO-neutral during the winter, and we likely won't see significant or clearly discernible impacts to the weather or surf. We'll dig deeper in our Winter Outlook, due out early December, so watch for a more in-depth look in the coming weeks. Until then, keep watching the fronts for the next swell. But don't forget about October, because it truly was a memorable one.

Coming out of the typically slow summer of modest trade swell and only minor tropical activity along the North coast (and the usual flatness in the Northwest), October is normally a transition month.The region often sees swells start to increase during an average October, offering a taste of the size and power that will be served over the coming months. This October was more like a top-shelf, Vegas-style buffet, allowing you to gorge yourself on all varieties of delectable treats until you just physically couldn't handle anymore. And if you think this is mere hyperbole, we have the data to back that claim.