There is so much noise in particular on Reddit about The DAO rescue Hard Fork issue on the Ethereum network.

Vlad wrote a very good piece about it about it and how we need to come to some sort of consensus about it in a peaceful way.

I agree with him about this. While Vlad is pro-HF and I am anti-HF, I believe we both have the same ultimate goals.

I thought it would be a good idea to list arguments that might convince me and some that definitely wouldn’t.

Biases and disclosures

First, let me say where my interest in Ethereum is from and what forms the basis for my opinion.

I hold Ethereum

I make my living from Ethereum

I am working on several long term projects that depend on Ethereum

I bought a very small amount of DAO Tokens primarily to be able to experiment, but fully aware that I might lose them

I was very vocal against The DAO before it went live

Besides those, my biases are:

I am a libertarian

I am very influenced by Nassim Taleb’s thoughts on Anti Fragility and Skin in the Game

I believe in personal responsibility

I was an early Bitcoin enthusiast

I’ve worked with Cryptographic money and Smart Contracts since the late 90s

I have a strong interest in the history of financial institutions and law

Arguments that might convince me of a hard fork

1. The attacker DOS’ing the network using large amounts of gas

I am not convinced yet that this is a real problem, but I am not yet convinced it isn’t.

2. Attacker balance puts Proof of Stake at risk

Again this is an interesting problem. My gut feeling is that if this is a real issue we need to improve POS algorithm. I honestly haven’t read enough about Casper to have a real opinion here yet. I would appreciate someone who understands it well outlining the risks involved.

Vlad doesn’t seem to think this is a real problem. So far I haven’t seen anything yet that might convince me that a Hard Fork is a good idea.

3. Anything affecting the stability of the Ethereum Network

The above 2 points are the only arguments I’ve heard so far. I will pay attention to them and try to understand the attack vectors and issues.

I would be really interested if a knowledgable Pro Forker could compile a list of all of these (maybe it already exists). So we can do a public analysis of them.

4. Hacker can manipulate Ether price by dumping

It has been argued that the hacker will dump his Ether causing the price to plunge. I agree that, that may very well happen, but exhanges can easily black list accounts to mitigate this if they chose to. They might actually be legally required to attempt to do so under Anti Money Laundering rules.

I am fully prepared for the price to go down after this either from him selling it off or from token holders selling off their returned Ether.

If that happens it is probably for the best for Ethereum and it is up to us creating real value in the Ethereum ecosystem to push it up again in the near future. I have no doubt that will happen with all the exciting things we are all working on.

All of that said, someone who understands these things better than me could potentially persuade me otherwise.

5. Legal liability for core team

The last people I want to go to jail and face future legal liability are the Ethereum core team. Some people have argued they face a legal liability if they don’t help. I am not convinced of this yet, but I am not a lawyer.

I and some lawyers I’ve spoken to actually think the opposite may be the true. Basically their actions since the hack could create legal precedence that they would have to act in future cases, thus giving them future liability. This presedence might be even greater if the default option of geth is pro hard-fork.

Arguments that definitely will not persuade me

1. The token holders will lose money

They made a risky investment and while it is sad they lost the money, this was a choice they themselves made. I have made dumb and risky investments in the past and have not asked for a bailout, I have chalked them up to experience.

2. Appeal to authority

A common argument on reddit has been that Vitalik or someone else has come out in favor of some solution. I will listen to anyone intelligent who is able to talk in a sensible way, but I will never just plainly accept anyone’s word unless I actually believe in what they say.

3. That Anti-HF’s are just spouting FUD

I’m an adult and don’t get offended easily, but a significant portion of pro-HF’s have been acting rude and like spoiled kids in /r/Ethereum. Calling our arguments FUD and systematically down voting things you don’t agree with is not likely going to help convince any of us.

4. We don’t want anyone to go to jail

The DAO started off as a really cool yet very naive experiment. It ended up as a kind of collective pump and dump scheme. A group of us loudly and repeatedly warned the original promoters of potential legal liability and loudly ignored us.

The end result is that a lot of people lost a lot of money, the Ethereum community learned a lot of valuable lessons. We also lost a lot of productivity in the Ethereum world for about a month.

The Slock.it team themselves IMHO broke securities laws in multiple countries. You may not think those laws are fair. The outcomes of their actions are exactly the kind of outcomes these laws are meant to protect naive investors from.

I really don’t want them to go to jail, but if the day comes they must be ready to face the music either in civil or criminal court.

The Ethereum community itself was harmed by them and their actions, so we should not harm ourselves even further to save them. That is their own responsibility not ours. I’m sorry if that sounds harsh, but they were warned.

Conclusion

We all have different biases, histories, experiences and level of investment into the Ethereum ecosystem. It is important to understand these at least for yourself. This is why I started out with a list of my own biases.

Try and write out a similar list for yourself. You don’t have to share it. Make a choice understanding how your biases affect your decisions.

Then try to argue like an adult. Upvote articles and points that are well written and well intentioned even if you don’t agree with them. Argue against them by respecting other peoples biases and opinions.

I hope the Ethereum community comes out of this as a stronger group. Part of being a stronger group according to the principles of Anti Fragility is having diversity of opinion and actions. Disagreement is good. Forcing consensus where there isn’t is not always best.

Of course a fork requires consensus and I will follow the consensus of the community of the HF after the fact as I believe that is the best for Ethereum.

Until then please, do try to argue me into supporting it. If you can argue for it correctly and pass through my biases, I am very willing to change opinion.