Shifting of alliances in the Mideast?

Sinem Cengiz

Sinem Cengiz

Hardly a day passes without a development in the Middle East and the extraordinary complexity of developments in the region creates a serious paradox. The already complicated picture in the region has even become more complex with the recent moves of Egypt. Last week, there were reports circulated in the media stating that Egyptian Petroleum Minister Tarek El Molla was on his way to Tehran to strike new oil deals following the halt of Saudi shipments of oil products expected under a $23 billion aid deal to Cairo.

As it is known, during a visit by Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman to Cairo in April, Riyadh agreed to provide Egypt with 700,000 tons of refined oil products per month for five years. Saudi Aramco reportedly informed Egypt’s state oil company that it would halt the supplies of oil products to the country due to technical problems. When the news of the visit of the Egyptian minister to Iran became public, Cairo didn’t waste time to deny it, saying the visit was delayed and Egypt was not negotiating with Iran over oil. However, that is what we see in front. It seems something different is happening behind closed doors.

Needless to say, diplomatic relations between Cairo and Tehran have been strained since the mid-1970s following Egypt’s signing of a peace treaty with Israel in 1979 and receiving Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, who fled Iran after the revolution in the same year. However, in international relations there are no permanent allies or enemies, but there are permanent interests that are shaped according to the political conjuncture and shifting of balances. So, regarding the recent rapprochement between Egypt and Iran, one may ask “Are the old enemies becoming friends?”

That is the reason why the news of the alleged visit draws great attention. It even becomes more interesting when taking into consideration the recent political atmosphere between Egypt and Saudi Arabia, a staunch supporter of the Cairo administration both politically and economically. A known fact, Saudi Arabia is not on good terms with neither Iran’s mullah regime nor with the government in Baghdad. Upon this, last month Cairo and Baghdad inked a memorandum of understanding to pave the way for Egypt to import oil from Iraq, while both countries vowed to further strengthen their ties. Egypt, Middle East’s most populous Arab country, also throws its full support behind Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi’s government in its ongoing battle for Mosul.

Another attention-grabbing move was when Tehran wanted Egypt to attend the key Syria talks in Lausanne. Iran agreed to attend the talks only if Cairo and Baghdad had seats at the table. Iraq could be understandable as Iranian influence in the country is not a secret, while also Baghdad does not hide its support for Iranian moves in the region. But, what about Egypt?

Also, when taking into consideration Turkey’s strained relations with both Egypt and Iraq, it would not be surprising to see how pro-Iran front acts with the understanding of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend,” not to mention Turkey’s good relations with Saudi Arabia. When the Middle East’s politics is discussed, four major powers — Turkey, Egypt, Iran and Saudi Arabia — come to mind. The balance of power in this volatile region depends on the relations between these countries. Throughout history, an alliance with Egypt acted as a significant determinant in the balance of power in the region and it has become an accepted fact in international politics that the relations with Egypt have a significant impact on the dynamics in the region. When reading the recent developments, given its crucial role and central position in the Middle East, Egypt’s position with Iran raises several questions in mind on whether there is a shift of alliances in the Middle East or a shift in regional political order.

However, the pro-Iran front should not expect more than business and good relationship with Egypt. Indeed, Cairo and Riyadh disagree on some issues; but interpreting the relations between Egypt and Saudi Arabia as “crisis” would be nothing more than an exaggeration. Additionally, describing Egyptian move as “a shift from Sunni axis toward Shiite axis” would also be a wrong reading as Cairo is playing its cards and acting pragmatic at the moment in order to realize its gains, which are not mainly associated with money, but a temporary alignment with “yesterday’s enemy” for common goals. What is obvious from the Shiite bloc is that it is trying to take advantage of the weakness of Egypt, which is politically and economically exhausted.

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• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes mainly on issues regarding Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. She can be reached on Twitter @SinemCngz.

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