The decision to make the NFL leap is rarely as easy as it seems: It's always personal, and no one is truly qualified to make a life-changing choice for someone else.

Michigan junior quarterback Shea Patterson is among a contingent of Wolverine underclassmen considering taking a shot at the NFL draft instead of returning to Michigan.

Patterson's situation is an interesting one. Perhaps more interesting than you might think.

More:Michigan football's Shea Patterson unsure on going to NFL or returning

The case for leaving

There is a real lack of depth at quarterback in this class. Oregon’s Justin Herbert has long been considered a first-round talent. Reports had him leaning toward playing his senior year back in October.

More:Michigan football's pass offense finds efficiency with Shea Patterson

Ohio State redshirt sophomore Dwayne Haskins would be a first-round pick by most standards if he declares. Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray, the Heisman Trophy winner, appears to be locked into a baseball contract. (Murray was drafted ninth overall by the Oakland A's in June and signed a contract worth nearly $5 million.) Next year’s class — which could include Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa and Jake Fromm — is much deeper.

Based on Patterson’s 2018 season, and his career in general, it’s doubtful the NFL's draft advisory board would give him a first-round grade. He might not even be a first rounder with another season of experience.

"I think, from an evaluation standpoint, he has enough tools and he's a smart enough quarterback and that could really help him. He could push up through the (draft) process," says noted NFL Draft analyst Matt Miller, who has scouted drafts for more than a decade. "You're going to test well, you're going to interview well. You could probably push yourself up throughout. I think he's a Day 2-type quarterback (if he goes) right now, I'm not sure he's getting into that first round grade.

"And he might never get one. I've advised a lot of quarterbacks over the years and that's the thing. It's 'you're probably not a No. 1 next year either, so look at the group you're in.' That's one reason why he could jump. But he won't get taller, probably not much faster. ... He'll be 22 in about a month, that can play into it. He kind of is who he is and that's not a bad thing."

If he returned, Patterson (6-2, 205) would have to compete against backup Dylan McCaffrey again. And unless Michigan drastically changes its offensive approach, his pass attempts aren't likely to increase. Patterson attempted just 24.1 passes per game this season, 10th in the Big Ten. His completion rate (65.1 percent) and passer rating (154.3) numbers were exceptional. But will his usage jump next year?

If Patterson declares, he’ll more than likely get an NFL Combine invite. He won’t have a chance to play in the Senior Bowl, but he’s an impressive interview who knows football. He’ll also have a recommendation from Jim Harbaugh — which means something in the NFL world.

He can operate in run-pass option, he can throw on the run, he can stand in the pocket off play-action, he can extend plays with his legs and he can read all concepts. He has proof of all this on film.

If he declares, his odds of getting picked are better than his odds of being undrafted.

The case for staying

Patterson’s betting on himself either way. He’d need a Heisman-type season to push himself into first-round consideration and convince teams to overlook his physical limitations. If Michigan cuts loose and allows him to sling the ball all over the field to players like Nico Collins, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Tarik Black next season, maybe he gets there.

The NFL loves players who perform on the big stage. Patterson didn’t play his best on his biggest stage this season in the regular-season finale at Ohio State. Michigan didn’t win a title. If he comes back and does both, he’d clearly be in better shape.

He can still improve his skills. Patterson’s footwork in the pocket this season was a constant work-in-progress. He was occasionally too bouncy, which led to too many throws off his back foot. He was solid throwing deep this year, but he could be better.

"Getting a year smarter in a pro-style offense who knows a little bit about quarterback play, right? There's a benefit to that. Showing yourself in that scheme again," Miller adds. "That'll only make him better."

Getting additional reps would be the No. 1 reason to stay. Yes, it's possible that scouts watching more film of Patterson would catch more flaws, but generally, the more playing time quarterbacks get, the better they are long-term. Harbaugh often talks about how most quarterbacks really don’t hit their peaks until their mid-to-late 20s, after getting more reps and work.

Patterson size is similar to Baker Mayfield, who went No. 1 overall in the 2018 NFL draft. But Mayfield went that high for two reasons: Playing in a passer-friendly system, he shredded every opposing defense with his pinpoint accuracy, and he carried himself as the nation's most confident player.

"It wasn't that long ago people were like 'Baker Mayfield's not getting any taller,' but then he comes back and just dominates as a senior," Miller said. "He'd have been a Day 3 pick had he come out as a junior. But he comes back, ends up being No. 1. So there is some of that thought process, I think, out there.

"Another year of coaching can't hurt. From a tools perspective, (Patterson) is who he is. But getting smarter, more efficient and growing as a player — those are the reasons you'd point to for coming back."

In other words, if Patterson thinks he has first-round potential, he’ll need another year to prove it.

The impact on Michigan

If Patterson comes back, he’ll have to compete for the job. That’s the reality under Harbaugh. McCaffrey, who will be a redshirt sophomore should be recovered from his shoulder injury by spring. Joe Milton will be entering his redshirt freshman campaign with some experience under his belt. Will Brandon Peters, who started four games during the 2017 season, return? We’ll see.

He'll have the inside track on the starting job, even if that's not a guarantee. Still, there's only one football: McCaffrey and Milton will get some snaps, even if they have to wait another year to start. That’s not always easy.

Patterson’s locker room presence, especially as a returning starter, should benefit all facets of the offense. Michigan is losing running back Karan Higdon, but four of Patterson’s offensive linemen will be back and the talented trio of Collins, Peoples-Jones and Black should give Michigan’s starting quarterback — whoever that ends up being — one of the best receiving corps in the Big Ten, and perhaps the country.

Either way, Michigan's been in worse shape at quarterback.

Contact Nick Baumgardner: nbaumgardn@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @nickbaumgardner.