With only one game left for the year, the ratings are done shifting. I posted the usual chart last week showing the final standings, but I wanted to provide a little more breakdown for those that are interested. This table shows the contributions of each team’s offense and defense to the ratings, as well as a comparison of how well each team did relative to the model’s expectations of them. Please note that the “expected wins” doesn’t match how many times each team was picked to win during the season. Picks are made on a weekly basis with changing ratings. The expected wins represents the number of wins each team averaged when the season was simulated with the final ratings. In other words, the expected records if the season was replayed with the current rosters.

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