We've run the analysis on the last 5 years to see which team stats matter most in terms of influencing ladder position. Some were obvious, others may surprise you.

The per game average across the season for each team stat has been correlated against the team's resultant finishing postion for the analysis.

Let's have a look at the full list of correlation values for each stat in descending order:

Team Stat Correlation Value SuperCoach Points -0.865 Inside 50s -0.760 Marks Inside 50 -0.738 Kicks -0.685 Disposals -0.642 Effective Disposals -0.606 Rebound 50s -0.463 Contested Possessions -0.421 Uncontested Possessions -0.418 Contested Marks -0.406 Effective Disposal % -0.378 Clangers 0.319 Handballs -0.293 Tackles -0.282 Clearances -0.274 Hit Outs -0.232 1% -0.154 Frees Against 0.132 Bounces -0.042 Frees For 0.019

**Note that a negative correlation value means that the higher the stat is, the lower the ladder positon (a good thing)*

A correlation value of -1 indicates that the ladder position is completely determined by the stat. So the closer to -1, the better

SuperCoach points actually matter

The armchair coaches out there obsess about SuperCoach points. The real coaches don't. As we'll see, the humble Disposal Count goes a long way to predicting a teams success in the year. The SuperCoach points stat essentially collates these into one giant stat. This is a pretty obvious one, but looking at how strongly this stat is related to ladder position, maybe we should all be taking this one a bit more seriously.

Get it inside 50 - simple

The next highest correlations are from the "Inside 50s", and "Marks Inside 50" stats. Seems obvious when we think about it. There's clearly a big difference between a scrappy bomb inside the forward 50 and a well-executed play which finishes with a lace-out pass to a bloke on the lead. But, these stats don't show us how pretty the Inside 50 is. Maybe coaches shouldn't care either?

Clangers over Clearances

Clearances don't matter much. This one was the biggest surprise to me. Considering the amount of money thrown at players like Dangerfield who specialise in clearances. To see only a -0.274 correlation with ladder position is astounding. Clangers don't get anywhere near as much attention, yet they appear to be more influential.

What about Sandilands and Co.?

The recent (home-and-away) success of Fremantle has been primarily built on a blueprint of dominating Hit Outs and Clearances (Sandilands and Fyfe). The analysis shows that it's not these stats that directly contribute to success - more likely its the resulting number of Kicks, Inside 50s and Marks Inside 50 that are more telling.

Again, are we focusing on the wrong stat? Are there better ways to get to the end-game without spending millions of dollars on clearance specialists and thousands of hours practicing set-pieces that are not far from random events anyway?

Rebound 50s hurt more than Contested Possessions score

The similarities between basketball and AFL are (unfortunately) growing. Preventing a team from zipping up the other end immediately after you've got it up yours is now more important than winning the Contested Possession count. Again, we hear a lot about winning the contested ball, but little about preventing the Rebound 50.

As always, these results need to be taken with a pinch of salt. It’s dangerous to draw too many conclusions from what are some high-level stats. Some food for thought though, at the very least.