Charges by Cook County’s chief watchdog that Democratic gubernatorial hopeful J.B. Pritzker benefited from "a scheme to defraud" taxpayers likely aren't enough to change the arc of the race for governor.



Pritzker is so far ahead of GOP incumbent Bruce Rauner in what is shaping up as a Democratic year—and these charges are arriving so late in the campaign—that, barring another big piece of nasty news, the governor's mansion is still his to claim, though possibly with a reduced margin.



That having been said, the blockbuster report by county Inspector General Patrick Blanchard will make waves that could continue well past the Nov. 6 election—not least among them the question of who leaked Blanchard's report and why they did it.



Pritzker, at a minimum, has been shown to be a rich guy who does the kind of things rich guys do to manipulate the system. Though he now says he'll do so—"this is a politically leaked report without new information," a Pritzker campaign spokeswoman said in a statement this afternoon—Pritzker should have paid back the $331,000 in allegedly fraudulently obtained property tax savings long ago, if only to minimize the long-term political damage.



But if Blanchard’s report is accurate, someone outright lied to county officials in obtaining at least half of those savings. If some hard-nosed federal prosecutor wants to get involved, someone potentially is in legal jeopardy because, as Blanchard made a point of noting, "the U.S. mail" was used as part of "a scheme to defraud" the county.



Here's what I know.



The Sun-Times back in June 2017 reported that Pritzker claimed a big tax cut on a Gold Coast mansion he owned because, while it was being rehabbed, it was uninhabitable, in part because the toilets had been removed.



Pritzker replied that he was merely using sections of the tax code that are available to anyone—"loopholes," if you prefer—to cut his tax bill.



Pritzker survived the resulting storm, easily won the Democratic nomination and raced out to a double-digit lead against Rauner in the latest polls. There things stood until the weekend, when Blanchard, who has been looking at this matter for more than a year, finally completed his investigation.



Blanchard declined to answer questions about his report. But it states that it went to five—and only five—people: outgoing County Assessor Joe Berrios, who set the tax assessment on the Astor Street house; County Treasurer Maria Pappas, who mailed refund checks to Pritzker’s agents; and County Board President Toni Preckwinkle and two of her top aides.



Someone in that group had to leak the report. Blanchard, Pappas and Preckwinkle say it wasn’t them, and there’s good reason to think that Berrios hadn’t even read it yet. But the damaging report came out just a month to a day before the election, and as one top political insider puts it, "Things like this don’t happen in Chicago by accident."



No, they don’t. But more on that later.



The core of the report is a memo from a Pritzker contractor on Oct. 5, 2015, saying that Pritzker’s wife, M.K. Pritzker, wanted the toilets in the structure taken out and capped "to have the house reassessed as an uninhabitable structure." That reportedly was done within a day or two, with Pritzker’s tax attorney on Oct. 14 filing for a reduction of taxes on the grounds that the building was uninhabitable and therefore entitled to a lower tax assessment.



However, Pritzker's reps filed for a tax cut predicated on the lack of toilets and a few related matters, not only for tax years 2015 and 2016 but for the preceding three years, for which they asked for a refund. In other words, the toilets still were there in 2012, 2013 and 2014, but a refund was sought on grounds that they weren’t.



Ergo the conclusion, one that came complete with eyebrow raising language: "The use of these affidavits was part of a scheme for obtaining money by false representations," a scheme in which refund checks were mailed. "The county ultimately fell victim to a scheme to defraud."



Ouch!



Republicans are having a field day. Former state GOP Chairman Pat Brady is calling on federal prosecutors to take a look at this. "At least (former Gov. Rod Blagojevich) had the decency not to break the law until he took office," Brady quipped.



Politically, with early voting having already begun and voters distracted by the Cubs, Bears, the U.S. Supreme Court drama and other matters, most insiders I've talked to say this development likely is too little too late to save Rauner. If nothing else, Pritzker can try to bury Rauner’s attack on what many voters will shrug off as old news with his own assault on Rauner’s record.



And then?



The U.S. attorney's office here isn't commenting on this matter, as per its normal policy. A spokeswoman for State's Attorney Kim Foxx says only that her office has a copy of the report and is reviewing it.



Which leads back to the question of who leaked the report. It appears not to be Rauner, since all of those who got the report are Democrats.



Some are speculating that Preckwinkle, who now is running for mayor and could use backing from state Democratic Chairman Mike Madigan, let the report out to weaken Pritzker some in the battle for dominance that's likely to occur between Madigan and Pritzker next year. Preckwinkle's office denies that. It also refers all questions about repayment and legal action to Berrios, Pappas and Blanchard.



Somehow, I suspect this one isn’t over. The impact of this scandal will linger. The only question is for how long.