JERUSALEM — The two issues with perhaps the broadest consensus and resonance in Israeli politics are opposition to the Iran nuclear deal and support for the release of Jonathan J. Pollard, the convicted Israeli spy, from a North Carolina prison. Now the two could be tied together, as some in Washington appear to be highlighting Mr. Pollard’s likely parole in November in hopes of quieting the vigorous campaign by Israel and some of its American supporters against congressional approval of the deal.

But while Mr. Pollard has long been bandied about as a potential diplomatic chit the United States might use to force Israeli concessions, analysts said Saturday that such a linkage had little chance of working now, and could instead provoke a backlash.

Iran is seen as too serious a threat for the kind of horse-trading suggested in previous proposals to free Mr. Pollard in exchange for compromise on the Palestinian front, they said. Mr. Pollard has been expected to get out this year in any case, having served the required 30 years of a life sentence, so efforts to portray his release as a grand gesture are already being described as cynical, cheap and misguided.

“If this is the motive, it’s naïve,” said Amnon Rubinstein, a law professor at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel, who joined the growing movement calling for Mr. Pollard’s release in recent years. “The two things are totally separate. One is a human consideration, and one is a strategic issue, which most Israelis, including myself, regard as existential.”