The TTC fell short of its ridership target last year, and transit officials are already warning that the agency could struggle to meet its goal in 2017.

At a meeting of the transit agency’s board on Wednesday, TTC CEO Andy Byford confirmed that the organization carried 538 million passengers in 2016, 15 million fewer than it had budgeted for.

Byford blamed the disappointing numbers on economic factors, and said transit agencies across the continent are grappling with anemic ridership growth. “Largely the main factor is the economy. There’s a very close correlation between the economy and ridership on transit systems,” he said.

The slumping ridership cost the TTC $46 million in anticipated revenue. The effects of that shortfall have already been factored into the 2017 budget.

The TTC has known for months that it would miss its ridership target. The worrying trend was apparent early last year, and a report the agency published in March blamed the problem on lower-than-expected full-time job growth, slumping Metropass sales, and sluggish uptake of new TTC service.

Although the 538 million passengers the TTC carried in 2016 was below the budget target, TTC officials consider it a slight improvement over the previous year.

That’s because while about 538 million people rode the transit system in 2015 as well, that included about three to four million free rides given to ticket holders at the Pan Am Games. Discounting those free trips, ridership increased about 0.7 per cent last year compared to 2015. By comparison, ridership grew by more than 13 per cent between 2009 and 2014.

Jessica Bell, executive director of the TTC riders advocacy group, agreed that some factors affecting ridership, including economic ones, are outside the agency’s control.

But she said the 10-cent fare hike that came into effect on Jan. 1 — the sixth increase in as many years — as well as chronic overcrowding on surface routes, and recent cuts to rush hour bus service are driving potential customers away.

“I think there’s considerable latent demand in this city. When you are on King St. and you’re waiting for the King streetcar, just about every time you’ll see someone give up and take a taxi instead,” she said, referencing the TTC’s busiest streetcar route. She argued that riders would flock to the TTC if fares were lower and service improved.

Councillor and TTC board chair Josh Colle dismissed that criticism, arguing that the agency is improving service by purchasing new buses and streetcars, and upgrading its stations.

“I think it’s become a sport in this city, and I recognize and accept that, to blame the TTC,” he said. “I would think, if anything, the TTC is doing its part.”

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The TTC is projecting it will carry 545 million riders in 2017. That figure was based in part on the assumption that there would be at least 540 million rides last year and that ridership would grow by 1 per cent.

Because last year’s ridership came in lower, however, the number of trips will have to grow by a little more than 1 per cent. Chief financial and administrative officer Vince Rodo told the board it will be “a little tougher now” for the agency to achieve its 2017 target.