“America is on the right path.” The result of the highly-watched special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District is still too close to call. While Republican Troy Balderson holds a slim lead over Democrat Danny O’Connor, thousands of provisional ballots are still left to be counted. “We went door to door. We went house to house. We made our case for change.” But why did the Republican Party have to fight so hard to defend its 38-year hold on this House seat? First, let’s look at the Trump effect. The 12th District has traditionally been represented by by moderate, business-minded Republicans like Pat Tiberi. “Burdensome regulations and a broken tax code keep American businesses from hiring, but it doesn’t have to be that way.” But Balderson embraced the populist tone of Trump, a highly nontraditional Republican. “I’ll end sanctuary cities to stop illegals from taking our jobs, fight alongside Trump to implement his agenda and use conservative grit to build the darn wall.” This was also a year when Republicans fought complacency. To try and motivate voters, outside Republican groups opted for polarizing messaging. “The liberal resistance is demanding open borders, opening America’s doors to more crime and drugs. Danny O’Connor would join the resistance.” Republican groups poured more than $3.7 million into the race, spending five times as much as the Democrats. “Dishonest Danny would vote with Pelosi to raise our taxes.” Republicans even pried a late endorsement from Gov. John Kasich, a Trump critic. “Troy shares our common-sense values on the important issues that face us today.” Now, let’s look at the Democrats. Danny O’Connor positioned himself as part of the blue wave. “We need new leadership in both parties. And instead of corporate giveaways that pile up debt, let’s cut taxes for working people.” O’Connor also got an unanticipated boost when the traditionally conservative editorial page of the Columbus Dispatch endorsed him. So even though Balderson may win this special election, he’ll have to, once again, face off against O’Connor in November.