I’m seeing a bunch of “why didn’t Warren go after Bernie” takes.



I think those takes are based on a bad assumption about “lanes” in this race.



Bernie’s supporter base is solid, loyal, and maybe 30%.



The big question is who emerges as contenders for the other 70%

(1/x)

If the race stays fluid for the next month, Bernie will be the nominee.



But if Biden collapses and another candidate or two run out of money, where does that support go?



Not to Bloomberg, after tonight, but he also isn’t going away anytime soon.



(2/x)

Warren’s path to the nomination is basically as a “Goldilocks” candidate.



Progressive, but a capitalist.

Populist, but technocratic.



The path only works if others drop out soon and Bloomberg sticks around without becoming a juggernaut.



(3/x)