College Basketball Bubble Watch By Eamonn Brennan | ESPN.com Email



Bubble Watch: Looking to lock up a spot before time runs out

Behold, fellow Bubble Watchers: The final weekend of the (regular) season is upon us.

With it -- most importantly, obviously -- comes the final "static" Bubble Watch update of the season. Come next week, we'll be updating the page live, as results roll in, from the start of Championship Week through the pre-show moments of Selection Sunday.

So: Where does the bubble stand?

By our count, there are 20 teams with "work left to do." That's a broad range, spanning teams like Xavier, on a slide but likely in the tournament at this point, to Iowa, a fringe team that just jumped on the page after Thursday night's win at Wisconsin (which followed Saturday's win at Maryland). Keep in mind: That number is inflated, so as to account for as many possibilities as is, um, possible. If you really drill it down, maybe 12-14 teams are in the bubble mix at this point, either needing to maintain their status in the field or hoping to notch one or two more wins to carry them across the threshold.

Meanwhile, just five teams -- VCU, Michigan, Michigan State, Arkansas, and Wichita State -- are listed as "should be in." Every team above them is a lock. Every team below them is on (various portions of) the bubble. They exist in limbo: Their resumes are good enough to get in the field, and they almost certainly will, but we're not so certain as to call them a lock just yet.

Which is to say: Things are shrinking. What began in early February as a wide-open, explorable space has now honed in on a couple dozen teams, each with their own resume boons and quirks, with one regular-season game, and one conference tournament game, guaranteed apiece. To coin a phrase that's almost certainly never been used before: This is where the bubble stops being polite, and starts getting real.