When he broke away from the Shiv Sena in 2006, Raj Thackeray made a key promise to Maharashtra. “I will give you the blueprint of the Maharashtra I dream of,” he said when asked what he was planning to do after moving away from his ‘conniving cousin’ and his coterie. It has been eight years since then and every time he was asked about it, Raj would look at the person with utter contempt. Reportedly, Raj will finally unveil his blueprint on September 25 this year.

When he first started off, Raj Thackeray​ held much promise, specially for his supporters and neo-converts. He made all the right noises back then, at least in private. “I am meeting so many Muslim and Dalit supporters. The Sena blocked them out. Not all Muslims can be declared Pakistanis or Bangladeshis. Not all Dalits are casteist,” he would say, gushing at the flocks of people who would come to his residence at Shivaji Park in Dadar. "I voted for the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) this time," confessed a South Indian senior journalist back in 2007. “Bahut ho gaya.. this man seems to be different,” he said justifying his choice.

Indeed, Raj seemed more inclusive than his uncle. He was eager to mix with people. He even set out on a state-wide tour and received a hero’s welcome everywhere he went. His speeches were fiery, hitting out at Uddhav who seemed to be the weakest link in the Sena at that time and Raj seemed unstoppable. He was the natural choice for young Shiv Sainiks who saw the Bal Thackeray of yore in him. When the 2007 municipal elections took place in Mumbai, the MNS didn’t get many seats, but the party garnered more votes than any other party. And he hadn’t even brandished his anti-North Indian card till then.

It was meant to be an innocuous statement, really. In a speech at Vikhroli in 2009, Raj mentioned how actor Amitabh Bachchan had become Uttar Pradesh’s brand ambassador even when his karmabhoomi was Mumbai and Maharashtra. “If Amitabh can become UP’s brand ambassador, why can’t I talk about Maharashtra,” he said and Hindi television channels turned it into anti-Amitabh venom. The statement went viral and twisted reactions from UP and Bihar leaders made it worse. Inside a week, Raj had found his calling card. His supporters monitored the TRPs of Hindi channels, gauged the pulse of the Marathi maanus and found that there was an undercurrent of support for Raj. The next few months was sheer madness. Raj sharpened his attack on North Indians and dared the state to take action. The toothless Congress-NCP did nothing even as Raj dared an IPS officer to meet him sans an official uniform. It was a strong threat to the system and instead of taking the bull by its horns, the Congress-NCP did nothing. So much poison was in the air that an angry Bihari youth with a desi katta (revolver) was gunned down by the Mumbai police in a hostage situation. The horrific incident signified how much hatred had been spread by both sides.

In the 2009 Maharashtra elections, Raj’s party played spoiler both in the Lok Sabha and assembly polls. The MNS swept the Sena off its feet in Central Mumbai, its bastion. It won only 13 seats overall, but the damage it inflicted on the Sena could not have been greater. The old patriarch of the Sena took it to heart and wrote in the mouthpiece Saamna - "Marathi maansaane pathit khanjir khupasla" (The Marathi people stabbed us in the back). An elated Raj gave a filmy reaction, though he didn’t name Uddhav - tumne apun ko itna mara, itna mara….apun ekich mara - ironically quoting Amitabh Bachchan from the film Amar Akbar Anthony.

The Sena seemed clueless. Raj seemed to be playing all the cards right. His protest march, after participants in a minority congregation at Azad Maidan ​in 2012 went berserk and attacked government properties and misbehaved with policewomen, made even Uddhav applaud him. Raj seemed to be ready to take on the mantle of the opposition.

And then suddenly it all went downhill. There were plenty of factors that contributed Raj's fall in the Lok Sabha elections this year. Yes, there was the huge Modi wave, and it flattened everything in its wake. But it wasn’t just the Modi wave that did Raj in.

Raj’s primary failure was the inability to create a plank of trusted leaders who would create a support network to convert his charisma into votes. His uncle Bal Thackeray had what the opposition called his ashtapradhan - eight leaders who were designated tasks and regions. There was a clear hierarchy for the Sainiks to follow- Manohar Joshi, Pramod Navalkar, Sudhir Joshi, Chhagan Bhujbal, Narayan Rane, Ganesh Naik, Gajanan Kirtikar, Diwakar Raote, Dattaji Salvi, Anand Dighe among many others. They were satraps under Sr Thackeray and remained loyal for several decades before people like Bhujbal and Rane broke away. They would take care of the organisation in their assigned regions and knew what was required of them. Do you recall any of Raj’s trusted aides? For that matter, is there anyone Raj trusts?

Of late there has been a huge trickle of MNS leaders going back to the Shiv Sena or BJP. And they are not switching sides only because the Sena-BJP may gain power post elections. For decades, Thackeray’s trusted leaders wouldn’t switch loyalties. And it was not just the fear of the Sainiks that kept them from revolting. Thackeray himself would assuage them from time to time. He would have long sessions with them to understand the public mood. Does Raj do this? Today, a disgruntled Haji Arafat Sheikh or a Ram Kadam don't feel bad to cross over to the Sena or BJP. And they are not the first ones to do so.

Also, the ground rules on how a party engages with its audience have been altered after the emergence of the Aam Aadmi Party first, and then the Bharatiya Janata Party. Both used social media campaigns effectively to reach out to their audience and even convert the faithful. AAP also engaged in agitations that connected with the people (expensive power and rampant corruption in Delhi). Did Raj or his party do anything of this sort? Raj preferred to ridicule AAP’s success in Delhi saying “mi AAPcha baap aahe” (I am far superior than AAP) instead of analyzing why they succeeded and managed to create an identity as an alternative to Congress and BJP at the time. Raj relied on his own speeches televised live across channels, which he thought would do the trick. But there was nothing beyond his speeches. There was virtually no central campaign.

But what damaged him the most and will continue to hurt him in the future, unless he does something about it, is the loss of credibility. Despite all the compromises Sr Thackeray made, his supporters and voters trusted him. He would put an ultimate spin and make the compromises look like victories. Uddhav may have several weaknesses, but he doesn’t suffer from a lack of credibility. The people who voted for Raj with great hope, however, no longer trust him. He has joined hands or made overtures towards almost all parties in various local civic bodies. After his MLAs were suspended for creating a ruckus in the legislative assembly, he entered into a secret pact with the Congress-NCP and got them readmitted to the legislature. His pitch against Amitabh Bachchan went into a shrill mode as it garnered him higher TRPs in 2008, but he had no qualms in sharing the dais with him in 2014. While one may want to justify these as political compulsions or realpolitik, Raj couldn’t justify them well to his voters. He could not show anything to his credit in Nashik, where his party rules the civic body.

So is this the end of the road for a leader who showed a lot of promise but failed to deliver? Not if Raj sheds his biases, becomes more trustful and starts respecting the public. Because after all, the people choose their leader and not vice versa.