World Cup fever may slowly be gripping England supporters as Gareth Southgate’s side prepare to face Colombia in the last 16 but there is one corner of south London that will be fully behind the South Americans on Tuesday evening.

Elephant and Castle has been at the centre of a thriving Colombian community ever since a large wave of immigration in the early 1980s as families attempted to escape conflict at home. A steady stream of students and families since then means there are estimated to be more than 40,000 Colombians living in the United Kingdom. The majority are based in the capital, with a large community also north of the river around Seven Sisters.

Yet with several restaurants and bars including La Bodeguita – opened 12 years ago by Cali-born Diana Sach – situated around the much maligned shopping centre that was built in the 1960s, there is no doubt that “the Elephant” will be the place to watch the drama from Moscow unfold.

Elephant & Castle shopping centre. Photograph: Ian Nicholson/PA Archive/Press Association Images

“I will be getting here at 4.30 to make sure I can get a table,” says Pablo, a Colombian who moved to London in the 1970s. “We are all friends who have been coming for years. Many Colombian people live in different parts of London but like to come here because it is very exciting. It’s very important for the community.”

Sach, having initially opened a kiosk selling traditional Colombian food in 1998, took the plunge when an Italian restaurant in the shopping centre vacated its premises and she and her two brothers moved in.

“We were here 24 hours a day at the beginning and it was very hard work,” she says. “But it was great as we saw it gaining popularity. People now come from all over – if they have anything to celebrate, they come to us.”

Recent regeneration of the area has resulted in plans to demolish the shopping centre, regularly described as one of London’s ugliest buildings, and there are fears that some independent businesses in the area could be forced out because of rising rents. The demolition has been delayed until 2019 but, despite the best efforts of Latin Elephant – a charity fighting on behalf of local traders – Sach admits she remains concerned over the future for her and the rest of the community.

Colombia fans in London for March’s friendly against Australia. Photograph: Tony O'Brien/Action Images via Reuters

“We don’t know what is going to happen yet but we do know we want to carry on running a restaurant in Elephant and Castle,” she says. “La Bodeguita is my life but it is also a big part of so many other people’s lives here too.”

The Guardian visited La Bodeguita for Uruguay’s victory over Portugal in the last 16 on Saturday and there was no doubt whom patrons were supporting. Both of Edinson Cavani’s goals were greeted with loud cheers from supporters from Peru, Ecuador, Chile and, of course, Colombia. Around 400 are expected for Tuesday’s match, with confidence clearly running high after José Pekerman’s side recovered from losing their opening game to Japan.

“I’m pretty sure we will win – we have a better team than England,” says Raul Alzate, who has lived in London for 25 years and whose nephew Steven Alzate plays for Brighton’s under-23s. “We’ve been in this country for a very long time, so I’m a bit torn actually. We usually support England as well! This time I have to support Colombia. It’s in my blood.”

Much has been made of Southgate’s decision to field a weakened team in England’s final group stage match, with the defeat against Belgium ensuring they are now on the so-called “easier” side of the draw. They are third favourites with some bookmakers for the tournament after the elimination of Germany, Spain, Portugal and Argentina, although Raul insists Colombia will be no pushovers.

“I can see it being a really good game,” he says. “But if England give them time on the ball, then they are in big trouble.”