Let me preface this by pointing out that at this time in 2006, I predicted the Texans would use the first pick in the NFL draft on running back Reggie Bush.

That means everyone predicting the Texans will draft defensive end Jadeveon Clowney probably will be right.

But I'm still predicting a quarterback, as I have been since the day the 2013 season ended. I believe they'll select Blake Bortles or Johnny Manziel.

It doesn't matter what anyone outside Reliant Stadium thinks they should do. The only three opinions that matter belong to owner Bob McNair, general manager Rick Smith and coach Bill O'Brien.

The Texans have a desperate need for a quarterback. They're coming off a 2-14 season, and they must generate some life into a carcass that's been picked apart. Nothing revitalizes an organization like a quarterback drafted in the first round.

I don't think the Texans will reach on a quarterback. I believe by the time the first round starts on May 8, they'll have one of the quarterbacks ranked high enough to justify the pick.

O'Brien and Smith insist they haven't made up their minds, and I believe them. They don't care about selling tickets or pleasing the experts who tell them what they should do. They're going to take the player they believe will have the biggest impact on their organization.

There's still a lot of time left in the evaluation process. With the conclusion of the significant pro days, there remain private workouts on college campuses and private meetings at team headquarters.

Everyone who has followed O'Brien's coaching career says he loves tutoring quarterbacks. They say he's an excellent quarterback coach. This better be the only time he has his pick of every quarterback prospect in the land.

Some say the Texans should take Clowney in the first round and a quarterback in the second.

Fine, but who?

Drafted on potential

Some point out that Russell Wilson (Seattle), Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco) and Nick Foles (Philadelphia) weren't drafted in the first round, but there's a difference. Their teams had veterans who were projected as starters. They were drafted because of their potential, not because they needed to make immediate contributions.

A lot of experts point out there's no Andrew Luck in this draft. Well, there's no Bruce Smith, either.

When I look at Clowney, I see a smaller version of Mario Williams.

Hey, Williams has averaged 9½ sacks in his eight-year career. That's pretty darn good, right? Not great, though.

Clowney (6-6, 266) is an extraordinary athlete with every physical gift scouts look for in the best pass rushers. Many drool when they look at him because of his God-given gifts, and they're willing to give him a pass on a disappointing junior year.

Williams (6-7, 295) was an extraordinary athlete, too, when he came out of North Carolina State in 2006.

With the exception of the 40-yard dash, in which Clowney ran a 4.53 at the combine compared to Williams' 4.70, Williams blew him away in every other drill.

Chasing Luck?

The Texans drafted Williams to chase Peyton Manning. If the Texans draft Clowney, he'll be chasing Luck.

Clowney would have to move to outside linebacker in Romeo Crennel's 3-4 scheme, just as Williams made the switch under Wade Phillips in 2011.

In his first five games playing for Phillips, Williams was off to the best start of his career, with five sacks in five games before he suffered a season-ending injury.

If the Texans select Clowney to bolster their pass rush, there's a good chance they'll be in the running for another high pick in 2015. And that's OK, because O'Brien has a five-year contract, and McNair's a patient owner.

The Texans do need another pass rusher. J.J. Watt has been their only legitimate one. If they draft Clowney to play the weak side, Whitney Mercilus would have to switch sides, allowing Brooks Reed to move inside.

But they'd still have this one problem: quarterback.

Clowney, who played at McNair's alma mater, is the safe pick.

But I'm still predicting Bortles or Manziel.