Hillary Clinton is sliding in the polls against Bernie Sanders, and the insiders who make up The POLITICO Caucus have the diagnosis: Voters don’t trust her, and she doesn’t represent the change some Democrats want.

The Caucus members — an influential panel of the leading operatives, strategists and activists in the four early-nominating states, were asked to evaluate Clinton’s greatest vulnerabilities and given four choices: honesty and trust, the dynastic nature of her candidacy and a struggle to represent change, her economic policies and ties to Wall Street, or her foreign policies and since-renounced support for the Iraq War.


Their responses offered a revealing look at why Clinton is struggling, particularly in Iowa and New Hampshire, as the Democratic presidential hopefuls gather Sunday night in Charleston, South Carolina, for the fourth in their series of primary debates.

Economic and foreign policy issues barely registered, but Democratic insiders were split evenly between honesty and trustworthiness on the one hand and Clinton’s inability to be a change agent on the other.

“People feel she is not genuine,” said one Nevada Democrat.

“There is a ceiling to Hillary’s support, much like I think there is a ceiling to [Donald] Trump’s support,” another Nevada Democrat said. “No matter what Hillary does she will always have 40 percent of the electorate who fundamentally doesn’t trust her. That doesn’t mean she is dead in the water, it just means we have to tear the other side down. Thankfully, the other side is giving us plenty of ammo to do just that in a general election setting.”

Others said the Clinton name and how long she has been on the public stage leading voters to look elsewhere.

“You look at how Jeb Bush has floundered, and it's hard not to get the feeling that voters don't want to be unpacking baggage from the last two decades — even though Jeb and Hillary are the most qualified nominees either party could choose,” a New Hampshire Democrat said. “They say history repeats itself, but I think there’s a good chunk of people out there who would prefer a little more time in between the repetitions.”

“I'm beginning to think that Hillary’s problem is that she came onto the public scene just a little too early,” another Nevada Democrat added. “She was pegged as too strong and ambitious at a time when that still wasn’t an acceptable public persona for a woman amongst a significant portion of the population. A younger female politician with the same skills, ambition and accomplishment would not face the same level of character assassination that Hillary has faced.”

Republicans leaned more heavily on what they saw as Clinton’s lack of honesty; more than three-quarters of insiders said that was her biggest liability.

“Voters just don't see her as trustworthy,” an Iowa Republican said. “There are too many examples of Hillary choosing politics over principle and operating in secret at the State Department, the [Clinton] Foundation, and in so many other ways. She’s just not transparent, in an era where voters require it.”

“It would be better if you had a box that said, ‘Rubs people the wrong way,’” a New Hampshire Republican added.

Her low marks on honesty and her long time on the public stage have a similar effect, insiders said: Though Clinton is leading in the national polls, Democrats are more enthusiastic about Sanders’ candidacy.

“Her biggest problem is that she does not excite new voters,” an Iowa Democrat said. “It's become obvious that the route to the White House relies on exciting new voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. Obama did it in 2008, and Bernie and [Donald] Trump are doing it now. My worry is that Clinton will win but will not be able to mobilize new voters to turn out and work hard for her.”

A New Hampshire Democrat put it more succinctly: “Voting for Hillary Clinton is an act of duty, not of passion.”

Here are some other takeaways from this week’s survey:

Insiders expect Sanders to win at least one state in February.

Sanders is likely to win at least one of the first four states, insiders say — denying Clinton a glide path to the Democratic presidential nomination.

Asked how many of the four contests in February the senator would win, 85 percent of Democrats said he would prevail in at least one state. Roughly half, 48 percent, said Sanders would win just one state. But 37 percent said he would win two or even three of the first four states.

Only 15 percent predicted Sanders would be shut out for the month.

Sanders’ surge in recent weeks in Iowa and New Hampshire has given his supporters added confidence that he’ll stun Clinton in one or both of those states. And many Clinton backers are increasingly nervous that their candidate will stumble out of the gate when voting begins on Feb. 1.

“I am answering this question with far less confidence than I would have even a week ago,” said a Nevada Democrat, who, like all the panelists, completed the survey anonymously. “Right now, I think [Sanders] narrowly prevails in Iowa, and wins New Hampshire.”

Where the insiders differ is whether Sanders can sustain wins in the first two or three states and overcome Clinton’s advantages in South Carolina and elsewhere — with both sides wondering how this race compares to Barack Obama’s protracted victory over Clinton in 2008.

“Bernie is on track to steamroll in New Hampshire and Iowa,” said one New Hampshire Democrat. “South Carolina seems slow to the party, but I could see Bernie navigating the Nevada caucuses quite well on the momentum from the first two victories — just like another usurper not so long ago.”

But others don’t think Sanders can tap into the African-American base that makes up such a large segment of the Democratic electorate in states like South Carolina; blacks composed 55 percent of Democratic voters in South Carolina eight years ago.

“I can see Sanders winning New Hampshire but find it hard to believe he will win another early state,” a South Carolina Democrat said. “This is much different than 2008, where an early primary win for Obama showed African-American voters in the South that he could win the presidency.”

Other insiders said it isn’t Clinton’s baked-in advantage with black voters, but rather her superior organization that would allow her to withstand early Sanders victories.

“I think his ceiling is two, Iowa and New Hampshire,” an Iowa Democrat said. “Those are the two states that provide the flattest playing field for all of the candidates because they have been organizing there for so long. Unless Bernie wins both Iowa and New Hampshire and ends up on the cover of Time magazine, Clinton’s organizational advantages will push her ahead in the later states, starting in South Carolina.”

Most Republicans, meanwhile, are skeptical Sanders can go the distance and win the nomination. But defeats in the first states, some said, would leave Clinton irreparably damaged — and Democrats would need to catapult in another standard-bearer.

Sanders would win the first three states — Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada — one Iowa Republican said. “Hillary will trounce him in South Carolina, but it won't be enough — and John Kerry will have to ride in on his windsurfer to save the day.”

Dems: Bring out the Big Dog.

Bill Clinton has been out on the campaign trail more often since the start of the new year, but Democrats want still more. More than half, 57 percent, of Democratic insiders say Hillary Clinton should deploy her husband more than her campaign has thus far — even in light of Trump’s recent attacks over Bill’s alleged infidelity.

“Like it or not, the connection to the Clinton years remains one of her greatest strengths,” a South Carolina Democrat said. “She needs to remember Al Gore — he shied away from the Clinton legacy and paid the price.”

“If she wants to win, she needs put the Big Dog front and center,” another South Carolina Democrat added. “As much as I have heartburn over her, if Bill Clinton asked me to jump off the top of Williams-Brice Stadium, I would probably do it.”

Not all Democrats are excited about seeing more of Bill Clinton, however. “Keep using him where it makes sense, but don’t engage directly with Trump,” a Nevada Democrat said. “Sorry in advance for this one, but the media is really at fault here. These are dead issues, and indulging everything Trump says like it’s breaking national news is irresponsible.”

“The real issue here is that for those who lived through the Clinton years can readily recall the almost constant sense of drama (not of the positive type) that defined much of his presidency,” a New Hampshire Democrat added. “Some are reluctant to go down that road again, and he reminds folks of that.”

Republicans were split evenly on this question: A third said Clinton should use her husband more, another third said Bill should be used less, and a third said about the same.

“Bill Clinton has lost his magic. [His] recent trip to New Hampshire hurt her efforts,” said a Republican there. “She needs him to raise money and stay off the TV news.”

But others said Clinton would be foolish not to use her husband on the stump more often.

“He’s more popular than she is,” another New Hampshire Republican said. “Plain and simple.”

These are the members of the POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this week’s survey:

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Richard S. Rogers, Nick Ryan, Matt Schultz, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, William O’Brien, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Karen Testerman, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams, Ethan Zorfas

South Carolina: Andrew Collins, Antjuan Seawright, Barry Wynn, Bob McAlister, Boyd Brown, Brady Quirk-Garvan, Bruce Haynes, Catherine Templeton, Chad Connelly, Chip Felkel, Cindy Costa, Clay Middleton, David Wilkins, Dick Harpootlian, Donna Hicks, Drea Byars, Ed McMullen, Elizabeth Colbert-Busch, Ellen Weaver, Erin McKee, Gary R. Smith, Glenn McCall, Inez Tenenbaum, Isaiah Nelson, Jaime R. Harrison, James Smith, Jason Perkey, Jay W. Ragley, Jim Hodges, Jimmy Williams, Joe Erwin, Joel Sawyer, John Brisini, Kevin Bishop, Kim Wellman, Laurin Manning, Le Frye, Luke Byars, Matt Moore, Mikee Johnson, Morgan Allison, Phil Noble, Scott Farmer, Tony Denny, Trey Walker, Tyler Jones, Walter Whetsell, Warren Tompkins, Will Folks

Nevada: Adam Khan, Andres Ramirez, Andrew Diss, Barbara Buckley, Bob Cavazos, Brendan Summers, Chip Evans, Chuck Muth, Dan Hart, Daniel Stewart, Ed Williams, Emmy Ruiz, Erven T. Nelson, Greg Bailor, Heidi Wixom, Jack St. Martin, James Smack, Jay Gertsema, Jeremy Hughes, Jim DeGraffenreid, Jon Ralston, Kristen Orthman, Laura Martin, Linda Cavazos, Lindsey Jydstrup, Mac Abrams, Mari St. Martin, Marla Turner, Megan Jones, Michael McDonald, Michelle White, Mike Slanker, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Oscar Goodman, Pat Hickey, Paul Smith, Pete Ernaut, Peter Koltak, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Roberta Lange, Ryan Erwin, Ryan Hamilton, Sam Lieberman, Scott Scheid, Yvanna Cancela, Zach Hudson

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.