Copeland by-election



A by-election early in 2017 is exactly what the Labour leadership didn't want as they bid to rebrand Jeremy Corbyn as a "left-wing populist" (no, I don't understand either). Corbyn's opponents within Labour will see the Copeland by-election as a potential tipping point for the leader. The by-election was triggered after Jamie Reed, a stern critic of Corbyn, resigned as MP for Copeland. This ex-mining community has been represented by Labour for more than 80 years but it's now an ideal target for Ukip. It would take a big swing for Paul Nuttall's party to take Copeland but, if they improve significantly on the 15.5% they won there in 2015, the Conservatives could be the real beneficiaries as they already have fairly strong support in the area. A Tory government hasn't taken a seat from Labour since 1982 but the Tories are [1.92] favourites with Labour [2.58] and Ukip [12.0].





Corbyn to leave before next general election?

Since being re-elected as Labour in September 2016, Jeremy Corbyn has looked unassailable as Labour leader. Even if the party are plummeting in the polls, the thinking goes, and Labour MPs try to remove him, ordinary party members will keep him in place. Corbyn has had his moments this autumn, exposing Theresa May's weaknesses at PMQs and making a powerful Christmas address on homelessness, but do even his staunchest supporters believe he can win over the type of swing voters who will decide the next general election? Faced with another likely Tory victory, will Labour members not decide that the party must elect somebody who can lead them into government? Corbyn is [2.2] to leave before the next election. If you think that's a decent bet, you should also see the next Labour leader market where Keir Starmer is [7.0] favourite.





General Election in 2017?

The Conservatives have a commanding lead in the polls and, with things likely to get tricky on the economic and Brexit fronts before 2020, it might make sense for Theresa May to call a general election pronto. So far the PM has dismissed the idea. Perhaps she thinks Britons are suffering from voting fatigue, having seen consecutive springs dominated by the general election of 2015 then the referendum of 2016. But if the Conservatives win the Copeland by-election, May might take that as indication that her party could score decisive victories across the country and gain a solid majority as she embarks on Brexit negotiations. At [2.94], a general election in 2017 is far from a wild bet.





Article 50

The PM is adamant that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March and bettors believe her, making it [1.25] that it will happen in the first half of 2017. If you think the PM will have to go back on her word then you can get [3.9] on no Article 50 triggering before July. Whenever Article 50 is triggered, the UK is supposed to then have two years to thrash out its divorce settlement with the EU. It might take longer than that - as long as a decade, according to some experts - and whether triggering Article 50 means that the UK will definitely leave the EU is far from certain.





Cabinet Specials

These markets amount to "Boris watch", as the Foreign Secretary is favourite to leave the cabinet first. He even has his own market - "Boris Exit Date" - which is probably a first for a minister. In his six months as FS, Johnson has done little to dispel the suspicion that he lacks the necessary self-discipline, although he has started combing his hair. He's insulted Italians with quips about Prosecco and infuriated the PM with his remarks about Saudi Arabia. It's still unclear why May appointed Johnson. Possibly, she wanted to have him inside her tent pi**ing out. So far, he's been inside pi**ing in. Does this necessarily mean he'll be the first minister to leave? Will he still be Foreign Secretary this time next year?

Whatever happens, 2017 surely can't be as eventful as 2016, can it?



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