Theresa May’s team warns no-deal Brexit could lead to a united Ireland and Scottish independence demands Downing Street acknowledges a no-deal Brexit in Northern Ireland – and maybe a hard border – could fuel unification demands

Theresa May’s chief of staff has warned that a no-deal Brexit could lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom beginning with the reunification of Ireland.

Gavin Barwell told a group of Conservative aides that a disorderly exit from the European Union could create unstoppable pressure for a border poll in Ireland.

He added that Scottish leaders would be likely to follow by making fresh demands for an independence referendum.

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Welsh separatism

The meeting also considered whether Brexit could stir up separatist sentiment in Wales.

Downing Street has acknowledged that a no-deal Brexit in Northern Ireland – potentially necessitating a “hard border” on the island – could fuel demands for a border poll.

Almost 56 per cent of Northern Ireland’s voters backed Remain in the 2016 referendum and the DUP was its only major party to argue for a Leave vote.

Under the Good Friday Agreement, the Northern Ireland Secretary can only hold a vote on its constitutional status if he or she believes that a majority would vote for reunification.

Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish First Minister, has indicated that the SNP would “step up” its drive for a fresh independence referendum if Mrs May was replaced by a supporter of a hard Brexit.

She has claimed that the independence cause would “sky rocket” if a Brexiteer such as Boris Johnson – who she has described as a “nightmare for Scotlland” – took over in Downing Street.

Months of discussions

Private Tory polling has also suggested that Mr Johnson is massively unpopular in Scotland.

One government source told i that the impact of Brexit on Northern Ireland and Scotland had been “discussed in Cabinet for months and months and months”.

A majority of Welsh voters supported Leave in the referendum, and a new poll on Monday suggested that the Brexit Party is on course for a decisive victory in Wales in Thursday’s European Parliament elections.

The survey put Nigel Farage’s party on 36 per cent support. Plaid Cymru, which backs a second referendum, is on 19 per cent and has leapfrogged Labour which is on 15 per cent.

The Tories are languishing sixth on 7 per cent behind the Liberal Democrats (10 per cent) and the Green Party (8 per cent).