Hailed by Michael Salfino of the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Sports for its “insightful and often contrarian viewpoint to prospect rankings,” the Prospect Digest Handbook is a perennial favorite among baseball enthusiasts, minor league fans, and fantasy general managers. Now back for its fifth season, the Prospect Digest Handbook is the definitive guide to the minor leagues.

1. Nick Pratto, 1B

Background: Fun Fact Part I: The Royals have taken first basemen in the draft’s opening round just two times in club history – Eric Hosmer (2008, 3rd overall) and Pratto (2017, 14th). Fun Fact Part II: Kansas City has owned the 14th pick in the draft three times; each time using the selection on a prep player (Pratto, Billy Butler, who was originally drafted as a third baseman, and Dee Brown). Fun Fact Part III: Huntington Beach High School, Pratto’s alma mater, has been home to several big league players including Hank Conger, Collin Balester, Jack Brohamer, and Howie Clark. There was a bit of an adjustment period as Pratto transitioned from the high school ranks into the low levels of the minor leagues: he batted just .202/.278/.381 with seven doubles, one triple, and a pair of homeruns through his first 21 games. But he was able to turn things around in late July, hitting a solid .281/.368/.439 with eight doubles, two triples, and a pair of homeruns over his final 31 games. The 6-foot-1, 195-pound first sacker finished his debut showing with an aggregate .247/.330/.414 triple-slash line, belting out 15 doubles, three triples, and four homeruns. Surprisingly enough, Pratto also swiped 10 bags in 14 attempts.

Projection: It was a tale of two stories for Pratto. His overall production over his first 21 games was a staggering 23% below the league average mark. Definitely not the type of performance an organization expects out of a high first round pick. But over his final 31 games he topped the league average by 21%. He showed a terrific eye at the plate and solid-average power, but the swing-and-miss totals are borderline red flag territory (25.2%). He also showed a slight platoon split against fellow lefties. Kansas City typically promotes young, top prospects aggressively. So Pratto’s likely to find himself in Low Class A at the start of 2018. With respect to comps, Travis Lee seems appropriate at this point in time.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

Background: Once viewed as one of the crown jewels in a deep system, Almonte has lost a lot that sheen as he’s dealt with production issues (see: control abandonment) and injury over the past couple of seasons. The hard-throwing Dominican-born right-hander blitzed through the Royals’ farm system while posting absurd strikeout-to-walk ratios, going from the club’s foreign rookie league affiliate as an 18-year-old to making a few brief appearances during the club’s magical World Series season just four years later. But Almonte, who looked like a potential mid- to front-of-the-rotation caliber arm at one point, lost all feel for the strike zone in 2016 – something that necessitated a demotion from the PCL back down to the Texas League. Last season, Almonte righted the ship as he flip-flopped from Omaha to Kansas City and back until a strained rotator cuff ended his year prematurely. He finished the season with 47.0 minor league innings, fanning 52 and walking just 13. He also made two brief appearances in KC.

Projection: Prior to the shoulder woes, Almonte looked like he put a disastrous 2016 in his rearview mirror. So much so, in fact, that he once again looked like the pitcher I analyzed about two years ago, writing:

“Almonte has shown the not-too-common combination of swing-and-miss ability with low walk totals. For his career, he’s averaged 8.6 strikeouts and just 2.7 walks per nine innings. He showed a dominant mid- to upper-90s fastball during his brief – and admittedly disappointing – stint in Kansas City. He complemented it with a curveball and hard, low-90s changeup. The Royals are chock full of pitching at the big league level, with the rotation currently featuring Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, Kris Medlen, Danny Duffy, and Chris Young, and the bullpen is ridiculously deep with power arms; so Almonte probably won’t see a whole lot of action unless a rash of injuries break out. I’m a big, big fan of the burgeoning right-hander – a power arsenal with the ability to maximize his potential as a mid- to upper-half of the rotation starter.”

And despite last season’s injury hiccup, there’s still a reasonable chance that Almonte pitches some significant innings in the middle of the Royals’ rotation in 2018, assuming the shoulder woes don’t linger. His production could sneak up on some people.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2015

3. Khalil Lee, CF

Background: Tools laden to the point where speed, power, and patience are just oozing out of his pores. Lee, the club’s third round pick out of Flint Hill School two years ago, had a promising debut in the Arizona Summer League, slugging .269/.396/.484 with nine doubles, six triples, six homeruns, and eight stolen bases. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average by 49%. His encore: another stat-sheet-stuffing performance as he moved up to the South Atlantic League. In 121 games with the Lexington Legends, the 5-foot-10, 170-pound center fielder batted .237/.344/.430 with 24 doubles, six triples, and 17 homeruns. He also swiped 20 bags – though it did take 38 total attempts. His production topped the league average mark by 25%.

Projection: First, here’s what I wrote in last year’s book following his impressive debut:

“He can certainly stuff a stat sheet with the best of them. Speed, power, patience; the lone knock on his otherwise sparkling debut was his problematic swing-and-miss rate which clocked in at just under 26%. But for a team without a first round pick that used their second round selection on a safe collegiate arm, taking Lee is just the type of gamble KC should have been aiming for in the third. Per the usual, it’ll be a wait-and-see approach until next year.”

Well, his strikeout rate ballooned to a worrisome 32.1% – definite red flag territory. In fact, here are a few more interesting snippets about Lee’s massive swing-and-miss tendencies:

In a July 13 th contest against the Delmarva IronBirds, a 21-inning affair, Lee record 10 plate appearances – eight of those ending in a strikeout.

contest against the Delmarva IronBirds, a 21-inning affair, Lee record 10 plate appearances – eight of those ending in a strikeout. Lee whiffed at least one time in 96 of the 121 games, or just about 79% of the games.

He recorded at least two strikeouts in 49 of his 121 games.

He earned the Golden Sombrero (at least four K’s in a game) three separate times.

His other numbers, though, are flat-out ridiculous. Consider the following:

Since 2006, only 13 players have slugged at least 20 doubles, five triples, and 15 homeruns with 20 stolen bases in the Sally. Only two of those players – Alen Hanson and Lee – were 19-years-old.

Between 2006, seven 19-year-old hitters posted a walk rate at least of 12% in the Sally (min. 500 PA): Delino DeShields Jr., Robbie Grossman, Jake Skole, Cito Culver, Lars Anderson, Nick Weglarz, and Lee.

On the other hand, since 2006, only five 19-year-olds have punched out in at least 30% of their plate appearances in the Sally (min. 500): Grossman, Lewis Brinson, Cody Johnson, Jason Place, and Lee.

One more important note to remember: at the time of this writing only two prospects (of any age) – Robbie Grossman and Lewis Brinson – have struck out in at least 30% of their PAs in the Sally and eventually made it to the big leagues. So while the odds for Lee appear long, he has a few things in his favor: both Grossman and Brinson were Lee’s age (19) and all three possess tremendous eyes at the plate. Now for some more bad news: Lee can’t hit lefties. He batted .220/.373/.317 against them in 2016 and then put together a paltry .198/.279/.351 in the Sally.

Highly, highly combustible. Very, very raw. But oh-so-talented.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: High to Extremely High

MLB ETA: 2020/2021

4. Josh Staumont, RHP

Background: Widely regarded as one of the most intriguing, interesting, “can’t wait to see if he will figure it out” prospects developing in the minors. Staumont is equal parts dominance and frustration wrapped up in an enigmatic once-in-a-generation arsenal. The flame throwing former second round pick out of Azusa Pacific University began last season with the Omaha Storm Chasers. But after 16 frustrating starts – he threw 76.0 innings, punched out 93 and walked 63 – the front office bumped him back down to the Texas League for his final 10 starts, which were basically along the same performance line (48.2 IP, 45 K, and 34 BB). Overall, Staumont threw a career best 124.2 innings, averaging 10.0 strikeouts and a laughably depressing 7.0 walks per nine innings en route to finishing with a 5.56 ERA. For his career, he’s sporting a 363-to-233 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 288.0 total innings.

Projection: Here’s the analysis I provided on the 6-foot-3, 200-pound right-hander in last year’s book:

“Oh…where to begin? Well, let’s start by measuring his production against some of his peers. Among all minor league hurlers with at least 120 innings last year, Staumont finished with:

the fifth best strikeout percentage, 28.9%

the best strikeout rate, 12.03 K/9

the worst walk percentage, 17.6%

the worst walk rate, 7.33 BB/9

So let’s add a little more context – this time from a historical perspective. Since 2006, here’s a list of pitchers that met the following criteria (minimum 120 IP):

Walk percentage of at least 17.0%: Staumont, Andy Oliver, Ismael Guillon, and Nevin Griffith.

Walk rate of at least 7.0 BB/9: Staumont, Andy Oliver, Ismael Guillon, Nevin Griffith, and Tyler Sample

Obviously, it’s going to come down to his ability – or inability – to find the strike zone consistently. There is a sliver of a silver lining: over his final 22.0 innings he posted a downright impressive 34-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has legitimate, once-in-a-generation caliber potential. But there’s a whole helluva lot of risk, make no mistake about it.”

So, was Staumont able to carry that momentum he built up at the end of 2016 in last season? Well, kind of.

In five of his first seven starts in the PCL, Staumont strung together a 45-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 29.0 innings of work. Sure the other two starts during that time were complete clunkers – he threw a total 8.1 innings against the Sky Sox and Baby Cakes, fanning seven and walking eight – but progress is progress.

And then the damn wheels fell off the Staumont Express…

Over his next nine starts, he tossed 38.2 innings, struck out 41 and walked a whopping 40. So KC demoted him back down to Northwest Arkansas, but he just couldn’t right the ship enough to save his season. There’s no need for any historical context. When he’s on, he’s as dominant as any pitcher, at any professional level in baseball. When he’s not, well, he looks as lost as bear cub without its momma.

Ceiling: 5.0-win player

Risk: Extremely High

MLB ETA: ?

5. Eric Skoglund, LHP

Background: Fun Fact Part I: The University of Central Florida, Skoglund’s alma mater, has graduated 10 players to the big leagues. Fun Fact Part II: Of those 10, six of them currently have a negative career wins above replacement total – Clay Timpner (-0.1), Darnell Sweeney (-0.5), Skoglund (-0.6), Chad Mottola (-0.9), and Drew Butera (-1.7). Fun Fact Part III: among the players the school has sent to the big leagues, the career leader in bWAR is former lefty Mike Maroth (4.1 bWAR), who, by the way, once led the league in losses in a season (21, 2003). Skoglund, the club’s third round pick in 2014, became the second member of the organization’s draft class to make it up to the big leagues (Brandon Finnegan bested him by about two years). A lanky 6-foot-7, 200-pound southpaw, Skoglund yo-yoed his way through several levels in 2017, making one start in Class AA, two separate stops in Omaha, and another two tours with Kansas City. Overall, he finished the year with 104.0 minor league innings with a 103-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio. And he tossed another 18.0 big league innings, though they were far less successful (14 K, 12 BB, and a 9.50 ERA).

Projection: Per the usual, here’s what I wrote about the big lefty heading into the 2014 draft:

“Skoglund has the one thing that can’t be taught – size. Standing 6-foot-7 and barely an apple slice over 200 pounds, he still has plenty of room to fill out. Decent strikeout numbers, though they’ll decline in the middle levels of the minor leagues. He’s a nice back-of-the-rotation option down the line, someone in the mold of Brian Tallet early in his career or Brian Flynn, who is currently working his way through the minors.”

For what it’s worth, Skoglund put together his second highest strikeout rate of his career last season in the minors. But his ceiling still resides somewhere in the Brian Tallet/Brian Flynn realm. He showed a low 90s fastball during his debut, complementing with a mid 80s slider, hard curveball, and a little used changeup. Kansas City’s rotation currently consists of Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Jason Hammel, Nate Karns, and Jake Junis, but the latter two aren’t exactly hard locks.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Low

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017

6. Meibrys Viloria, C

Background: Viloria’s offensive production exploded in the Pioneer League two years ago as he earned the Ralph Nelles Award, which goes to the league’s Most Valuable Player. In 58 games with Idaho Falls, the Colombian-born catcher slugged .376/.436/.606 with 28 doubles, three triples, and six homeruns while his overall production topped the league average mark by 59%. It marked just the second time since 2006 that a teenage backstop posted a 150 wRC+ in the league (Julian Leon being the other). Needless to say, I was riding pretty high on the Viloria Wave heading into 2018. And did he live up to the hype? Yes and no, but mostly no. In a career high 398 plate appearances, the 5-foot-11, 175-pound lefty-swinging backstop batted a respectable .259/.313/.394 with 25 doubles and eight homeruns to go along with a 105 wRC+. Viloria got off to a pretty frigid start to the year, hitting just .186/.219/.214 in the month of April. But he was able to turn things around once the calendar flipped to May 1st. Over his final 80 contests, the promising backstop slugged .276/.334/.437 with a 125 wRC+, numbers more suggestive of his actual talent level.

Projection: An absolute doubles machine over the past couple of years. Viloria’s quietly becoming a solid prospect – especially when ignoring his tepid month of April last year. Not convinced? Consider the following:

I’m not saying Viloria’s going to develop into the second coming of Mike Piazza. But he should definitely be in the conversation for more underrated catching prospects. He has sneaky power that could blossom into 20-homer territory down the line, strong contact rates, and a decent eye. Defensively, he’s been average. At the very worst, that’s a recipe for a solid big league backup with the ceiling as a slightly better than average regular.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2020

7. Andres Machado, RHP

Background: From a nondescript pitcher way too old for the Pioneer League two years ago to flame-throwing pitching prospect working out of the Royals’ bullpen last season. Machado certainly knows how to make up for lost time, doesn’t he? And it’s one helluva story too. Machado spent two years in the Dominican Summer League and another two years in the Appalachian League. The 6-foot, 175-pound right-hander lost the 2015 season due to injury and then spent the entire 2016 campaign working as a 23-year-old in the Pioneer League. Total. Nondescript. Prospect. Then something happened in 2017. Machado figured it out. The Venezuelan-born hurler made 21 appearances in the Carolina League to open the year, throwing 73.1 innings with a flat-out dominant 72-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Kansas City bumped him directly up to the PCL for two starts, then demoted him back down to the Texas League for a start, and then sent him back up to the PCL for five more contests. Then the front office called him up in early September. When the dust had settled, Machado threw a career high 111.0 minor league innings, averaging 9.0 punch outs and just 2.7 walks per nine innings. He also threw 3.2 innings out of the KC bullpen, fanning one and walking a trio.

Projection: I went back through every book I wrote since 2014 and Machado had never even earned a blip in any edition. The slight-frame righty unfurls a hellacious mid- to upper-90s fastball, a hard slider, and a 90 mph changeup. There’s a tremendous amount of noise in his production last season, but any pitcher with a plus fastball and impeccable peripherals is certainly worth watching. Kansas City was grooming him as a starting pitcher last season, which only adds intrigue to his status.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: Debuted in 2017

8. Donnie Dewees, CF

Background: In a classic old-fashioned challenge trade, the Royals sent big league-ready right-hander Alec Mills, owner of some impressive upper level peripherals, to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Dewees in early February last year. Mills was eventually limited to just 28.0 minor league innings thanks to injury. And Dewees, a 47th overall pick in the 2015 draft, turned in another quietly solid, yet unspectacular, season as he moved up to the minors’ toughest challenge – Class AA. The former University of North Florida alum appeared in 126 games for the Northwest Arkansas Naturals last season, hitting .272/.340/.407 with 24 doubles, six triples, and nine homeruns while swiping 20 stolen bases in 28 attempts. His overall production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average by 9% – the third consecutive level that the mark has ranged from 109 to 119. For his three-year minor league career, the 5-foot-11, oddly specific 204-pound outfielder owns a .275/.332/.404 triple-slash line.

Projection: With the exception of his above-average or better speed, the rest of Dewees’ offensive tools grade out as average. His defense in center field, which smacks of one-year flukiness, went from average to Willie Mays-like in 2017; according to Clay Davenport’s metrics, Dewees saved 14 runs while patrolling center for the Northwest Arkansas. Expect that number to fall back down closer to his career norm in 2018. Dewees looks like a solid fourth outfielder-type on a championship caliber squad with some fringe starter seasons.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2019

9. Nicky Lopez, SS

Background: A fifth round pick out of Creighton University in 2016 after an up-and-down three-year career. Lopez made quick work of the Appalachian League during his debut, hitting .281/.393/.429 with six doubles, five triples, and six homeruns to go along with 24 stolen bases. So the front office – wisely – chose to push him all the way to High Class A to start the 2017 campaign. And it proved to be the correct call: Lopez batted a solidly respectable .295/.376/.407 with 12 doubles, seven triples, and a pair of long balls in just 70 games of action. And keeping with the trend of aggressive assignments, Kansas City pushed him into the minors’ toughest challenge, Class AA, at the end of June. His offensive production trailed off as the season went on, but he did hit a combined .279/.348/.356 while proving to be one of the better fifth round selections from the 2016 draft class.

Projection: Another one of these fringy types that could carve out a lengthy career as a fringe-average big league regular. Lopez does a lot of things fairly well: above-average speed, solid or better defense, no platoon splits, and he provides enough power to keep pitchers/defenses honest. It wouldn’t be surprising to look up and see him post a .270/.320/.390 big league season.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018/2019

10. Samir Duenez, 1B

Background: Fun Fact Part I: There were only five everyday players under the age of 22 that received at least 350 plate appearances in the Texas League last season – Duenez, Juremi Profar, Luis Urias, Michael De Leon, and Franmil Reyes. Fun Fact Part II: Duenez and Reyes were the only two to slug more than 10 homeruns (Duenez with 17 and Reyes with 25). Fun Fact Part III: Of the aforementioned five prospects, Duenez’s 95 wRC+ ranked third, trailing Urias’ 124 wRC+ and Reyes 115 wRC+. Overall, the 6-foot-1, 195-pound Venezuelan-born first baseman batted a decent .252/.304/.402 with 23 doubles, a pair of triples, and 17 homeruns. For his career, he’s sporting a .270/.319/.390 triple-slash line with 97 doubles, 16 triples, and 32 homeruns.

Projection: It’s a bit difficult to get a good read on Duenez. While his overall production at each stop has more or less hovered around the league average mark, he’s been incredibly young for his level. And there’s certain aspects of his game that continue to improve – namely his power. For the first time in his career, fellow left-handers chewed him up, so he’ll need to sort that out in 2018. Duenez is similar to Donnie Dewees with respect to developing into a useful big league bat.

Ceiling: 1.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2018/2019

Author’s Note: All statistics mentioned were gathered from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, ClayDavenport.com, or Baseball Prospectus.