On the eve of his expected presidential announcement, Republican insiders in Iowa and New Hampshire say Rand Paul is a top contender in those early states next year — and they agree that for better and for worse, his father, Ron Paul, looms large over his candidacy.

According to this week’s survey of the POLITICO Caucus, a bipartisan group of political operatives, activists and key players from Iowa and New Hampshire, about two-thirds of all respondents said Paul can win their state in the caucuses or primary. But to do so, many said, the Kentucky senator has to build on the base cultivated by his father, the libertarian icon and former presidential candidate.


While former Rep. Ron Paul’s network of supporters is proving to be an asset, the elder Paul’s isolationist views — which many associate with Rand Paul — are also contributing to what is by far the senator’s biggest liability: his positions on foreign policy and national security. A majority of respondents, when asked an open-ended question about Paul’s greatest weakness, pointed to one or the other.

Sixty-three percent of all respondents said they consider Rand Paul an “isolationist,” and only 16 percent think he could beat Hillary Clinton in a general election — a number that ticks up to 24 percent among Republican insiders.

“He needs to distance himself from some of his father’s positions,” said one nonpartisan insider. “In particular, that means foreign policy. It seems foreign policy/international relations issues may be more important than usual this cycle, so it’s even more important that he finds a position acceptable to a broader group of GOP voters. The problem with doing so is that moving away from his father’s positions carries the risk of alienating the libertarian voters who are his base.”

Rand Paul, who is expected to announce his presidential candidacy next Tuesday in Louisville, has long bristled at attempts to link his views too closely with those of his father, a former GOP Texas congressman who continues to weigh in with his controversial views on foreign policy. The senator, while less interventionist in orientation than many of his likely competitors, has stressed that he believes in a strong national defense and has made a concerted effort to reassure activists and donors leery of his father that he is sufficiently supportive of Israel.

At the outset of the 2016 race, Ron Paul is viewed as providing an edge to his son. Fifty-seven percent of all respondents called the elder Paul a net positive, pointing to the built-in base of libertarian support in Iowa and New Hampshire, left over from his 2008 and 2012 presidential bids, that Rand Paul can tap into.

“With a huge field of candidates, Rand Paul has one advantage most other candidates don’t enjoy, he essentially owns one segment of the caucus electorate,” said one unaffiliated Iowa Republican, who, like all POLITICO Caucus members, was granted anonymity to speak freely. “If Paul can turn out the 26,000-plus people who voted for his father in 2012, I like his chances in this current field of candidates.”

One New Hampshire Republican who is backing Jeb Bush added, “Rand needs to hold the Ron Paul base, pick up some establishment support, and hope that the other candidates divide up the rest of the vote. It’s a tough path, but not out of the question.”

Those two perspectives represent the dominant thinking on Paul’s path forward: He starts out with a solid libertarian-leaning base, and if the establishment and social conservative candidates split the other segments of the vote, Paul could do well in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Here are three other takeaways from this week’s edition of The POLITICO Caucus:

Paul has the potential to expand the electorate

Over the past few years, the Kentucky senator has made a major effort to reach out to young people, minorities and other groups that typically don’t vote for Republicans. That’s why his first event in Iowa as an announced candidate will be at the University of Iowa. Asked to describe his greatest strength, one frequent response was Paul’s appeal to young people. Many respondents also said Paul’s efforts to broaden the base, especially his attempts to appeal to young voters, will be at least somewhat successful in their states. His father was also relatively successful with students.

“A lot of young voters enthusiastically embraced and then became disenchanted with Obama, but it will be a stretch for them to support a Republican candidate unless that candidate is fresh and offers a more attractive paradigm,” a New Hampshire Democrat said. “Paul is perhaps the only one who fits the bill. That said, Paul will make so many foolish compromises in an effort to please the GOP base … that he will have less and less appeal to younger voters over the course of the cycle as they get to know him better.”

A New Hampshire Republican added, “He brings new ideas and approaches to his effort and he might be just the ticket to bring fresh blood to the polls. He will speak to the concerns of young folks and he might be able to break new ground.”

He missed his foreign policy moment

In 2013, when polls consistently showed that Americans wanted less intervention abroad and were tired of war, Paul’s views looked prescient. But by the midterm elections of 2014, with the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and foreign policy and national security emerging as dominant issues, Paul’s more inward-looking approach put him out of step with many of his Republican colleagues. Those views made numerous insiders uneasy.

“Rand Paul’s biggest claims to fame involve beating up on the [National Security Agency] and railing against foreign wars,” an uncommitted New Hampshire Republican said. “He rose to prominence during a time when it was cool to be a less hawkish Republican. That’s changed with the rise of [ISIL] and continued turmoil around the world, thanks in large part to the failed Obama foreign policy.”

Another New Hampshire Republican added, “his real problem is that the party is moving back away from his anti-interventionist position. Beheadings have that kind of effect.”

Despite Paul’s assurances, an Iowa Republican said more broadly, “Traditional Republicans have a hard time trusting him.”

Paul spokesman Sergio Gor, asked to respond to those concerns, replied, “It is vital for the GOP to choose a constitutional conservative who can also expand the tent and make the GOP a bigger, better and bolder party.”

Some Iowa Republicans are still angry at his father’s supporters

Several Iowa Republicans said there are still hard feelings over the period when Ron Paul supporters took over the state party after the 2012 Iowa caucuses.

“Ron Paul’s supporters were an embarrassment under the national spotlight of the 2012 convention,” said one Iowa Republican who is backing Bush. “They were belligerent, cantankerous thugs at every event they went to, and are a net liability.”

An Iowa Republican supporting former Texas Gov . Rick Perry added, “The Ron Paul acolytes nearly ruined the Republican Party of Iowa. They were closed-minded, not inclusive, and amateurs at what they did.”

A third uncommitted Iowa Republican said that dynamic has tarnished the Paul family name.

“His dad’s allies are blamed across the state for running the party into the ground,” the Republican said. “If conservatives don’t trust the Bush family brand, they certainly don’t trust the Paul brand in Iowa politics.”

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus (not all of whom participated this week):

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.

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