Chelsea Schneider

Chelsea.Schneider@indystar.com

In November, Hoosiers will play an outsized role in determining the party that gains control of the U.S. Senate.

The surprise comeback of Democrat Evan Bayh, a former senator and governor, upended what was once expected to be an almost surefire Republican victory for Rep. Todd Young.

And that's not the only Hoosier race receiving national attention in this year’s unpredictable campaign season.

The Indiana governor's race received an unexpected jolt when Gov. Mike Pence decided to abandon his re-election bid to become Republican Donald Trump’s running mate. Now, his replacement on the fall ballot, Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb, is rushing to make his case against Democrat John Gregg in a matchup that polls show is a virtual tie.

The competitiveness is unusual for traditionally Republican Indiana — especially in a presidential election year, said Robert Dion, a political science professor at the University of Evansville. And it's keeping Indiana on the national political radar, even though it's not a battleground state in the race for president.

“We’ve had some statewide races that are so lopsided that nobody was interested in them,” Dion said. “The only questions was how low would the loser be at the end.”

This year, key outcomes remain unknown headed into the heart of the election season. But one thing is certain: In the Senate race, Hoosier votes will reverberate nationwide as control of the chamber hangs in the balance.

To regain Senate control, Democrats need to pick up four seats if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency, five seats if Trump wins. That's because the vice president can break a tie vote in the Senate.

The Bayh-Young race is one of three nationally where the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is running television ads to try to gain Senate seats. The other races are in Ohio and Missouri.

Young, a GOP congressman, has a chance to block those efforts in Indiana, despite being heavily outfunded, some analysts say.

The Cook Political Report considers the Indiana Senate race, along with eight others across the country, a toss-up, while another rating firm based out of the University of Virginia is leaning toward a Bayh win.

‘We expected the race to close’

Bayh, a former two-term U.S. senator and governor, is critical to his party’s efforts. But in his first week as a candidate, he gave Republicans a lot to work with, said Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor for the Cook Political Report. Bayh seemed annoyed to answer critics who questioned whether he considers Indiana or Washington D.C. his home, she said. And his nearly $10 million in campaign cash might not be that big of an advantage over Young, who had $1.2 million in cash on hand at the end of the most recent fundraising quarter in June.

“In competitive Senate races,” Duffy said. “I’m generally less worried about money differential because when you are in a fight for the majority and every race that’s a toss-up matters — the money is going to be there.”

Young's funding disadvantage could easily be overcome with the help of outside groups. The Senate Leadership Fund, a group with ties to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, is spending nearly $4 million on fall ads on Young's behalf. Federal election records show the campaign arm of Senate Republicans, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has spent $876,005 on ads against Bayh. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce also is spending $1.5 million on ads to help Young after the powerful business lobby announced its endorsement of the Republican last week.

Indiana has already seen the fourth-highest amount of general election ads for a Senate race through mid-August, according to an independent report released last week. Bayh’s side paid for $3 million of those ads, and Young or his backers paid for $2.1 million, according to the report by the Wesleyan Media Project.

That’s one reason why Duffy thinks the race could go either way. New polling suggests the lead Bayh has over Young is narrowing.

“We knew at the time that Young’s name ID was very low, so whatever we were seeing in early polling wasn’t reality,” Duffy said. “It was very name ID driven, and of course Bayh has great name ID but we expected the race to close, and so far we’re proven correct.”

The Bayh name still carries a lot of weight in Indiana, said Joe Losco, a political science professor at Ball State University. Bayh, the son of former U.S. Sen. Birch Bayh, served two terms as Indiana governor before winning his father's old Senate seat in 1998. As the state's top executive, Bayh became the first Indiana governor since 1830 to become a father while in office. His twin sons, Nick and Beau, quickly became household names and are now attending Harvard University.

To win, Young will have to chip away at that legacy, and one way he’s attempting to do that is by questioning whether Bayh, who owns a condo in Indianapolis and a larger home in Washington, D.C., is a bona fide Hoosier.

“We’ve seen this play out before with Dick Lugar what can happen with residency,” Losco said. “Hoosiers like their political leaders to be close to home. If Young can make Bayh out to be a carpetbagger — which is difficult to do — but if he can, it will help Young’s position.”

Young told IndyStar that he wasn’t “too concerned” when Democrat Baron Hill dropped out of the race to make way for Bayh’s return. It might end up helping him, Young argued.

“I actually feel like in terms of the distinction between our records, that’s only grown starker. I was running against a lobbyist who lives here in Indiana,” Young said referring to Hill, a former Indiana congressman. “I’m now running against a super-lobbyist who clearly lives in Washington, D.C.”

Bayh announced he wouldn't seek re-election for the U.S. Senate in 2010. After leaving office, Bayh became a partner in the Washington, D.C. office of the McGuireWoods law firm. He also is a senior adviser in the New York-based private equity firm Apollo Global Management and serves on the board of directors for several companies. However, Bayh is not a registered lobbyist. The law firm where he is a partner has a public affairs subsidiary.

In an interview with IndyStar, Bayh dismissed GOP attacks on his residency, saying he comes from a long line of native Hoosiers, while Young was born in Pennsylvania.

“I literally think nothing about that because that’s not what is important to Hoosiers,” Bayh said. “What matters to them is their challenges.”

He went on to say “I hope (voters) will turn off their televisions for the next 10 weeks because unfortunately there’s just a lot of negativity out there. You know what, that doesn’t help anybody. I think people are sick of that. If Congressman Young and his allies want to attack me personally that’s their choice. I choose to attack the challenges that face the people of Indiana.”

Yet, Bayh also has gone negative. He's launched an ad attacking Young's support of free trade policies that opponents argue make it easier for companies to move jobs overseas. The ad features a Carrier worker affected by the decision of the company and an affiliate to layoff 2,100 jobs by moving production units to Mexico.

This past week, Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia moved the race from a toss-up to lean Democrat. Hill, the candidate Bayh replaced, wasn't expected to raise much money. To that end, Bayh comes with a deep war chest and has shown an ability to outperform Clinton in polls, said Geoffrey Skelley, an associate editor with the ratings group.

He also seems to have a "golden name" in Indiana politics, Skelley said, doing what many other candidates couldn't do: win five statewide races.

Shake-up in governor's race

As for the governor's race, Pence's withdrawal gave state Republican leaders the unprecedented authority to pick his replacement on the ballot. And in July, they picked Holcomb, who earlier this year dropped out of the U.S. Senate race to become Pence's lieutenant governor.

In the weeks since Holcomb entered the race, Democrats have hit him on Pence’s record, including the governor's controversial handling of last year’s Religious Freedom Restoration Act that ignited a firestorm with businesses and conventions threatening to boycott the state. The backlash forced Republicans to amend the law that opponents felt could lead to discrimination against gay and transgender Hoosiers.

If Gregg can draw Holcomb out on RFRA during upcoming debates, that could become an issue for the Republican, said Losco. Gregg is in favor of adding full civil rights protections for gay and transgender Hoosiers into state law. Holcomb has said Pence "struck the right tone" in this year's State of the State address. In the speech, Pence said lawmakers needed to place a premium on shielding religious freedom in any debate over gay rights.

Holcomb said Gregg is running for governor on one issue: RFRA.

"He's laser focused on going back to the days of the past, and we got through those days," Holcomb told IndyStar. "I have the benefit of having been to actually all 92 counties over the last year and quite frankly not very many people bring (RFRA) up, if at all, and when they do it's out of almost exhaustion. He can run obviously the campaign he wants to run and kind of be the wooden spoon that tries to stir the pot and bring back an issue, but we got through that patch."

A new poll by Monmouth University shows the race is a dead heat with Holcomb at 42 percent to Gregg's 41 percent and Libertarian Rex Bell garnering 4 percent. Gregg barely lost the governor's race to Pence in 2012.

National political money also is pouring into the governor's race. Since becoming his party's candidate, Holcomb has received $2.3 million from the Republican Governors Association's Right Direction PAC. Comparatively, Gregg has received nearly $1.3 million from the Democratic Governors Association since April. Governor's races are playing out in 12 states this year, with four of those states currently in Republican control. Across the country, Republicans hold the governorships of 31 states, with 18 states run by Democrats and one independent.

Indiana's race is expected to remain close until the end.

“The more (Holcomb) can stay above social issues and look more like Mitch Daniels than Pence I think that’s better for him," Losco said. "But you know, Pence’s image is softening in comparison with his running mate. A lot of people are looking at Pence now with slightly different eyes, a kinder, gentler portion of the presidential ticket. So that may help in some parts of the state for Holcomb.”

For Gregg’s campaign, the Republican name on the ballot might have changed but the Pence-Holcomb policies have not, said Jeff Harris, a spokesman for the Democrat.

“Since day one, Eric Holcomb has said he’s proud to stand with Mike Pence and his record and that’s a good thing for us because Hoosiers don’t like the agenda that Mike Pence and Eric Holcomb have put forward,” Harris said.

At the presidential level, Indiana appears to heavily favor the Trump-Pence ticket, according to recent polling. But having Pence on the ticket still shines a Hoosier spotlight on that race.

That combined with the high stakes in the strongly competitive U.S. Senate and governor races could help drive high turnout.

“That’s going to light a fire under both parties,” Dion said. “To chase down every possible voter and bring them to the polls.”

IndyStar Washington correspondent Maureen Groppe contributed to this story.

Call IndyStar reporter Chelsea Schneider at (317) 444-6077. Follow her on Twitter: @IndyStarChelsea.