Richmond, Va.

Back in November 1992, I was in Little Rock, Ark., watching the presidential returns roll in, with Bill and Hillary Clinton. I had briefly run for president that year myself, so one set of results stood out. Mr. Clinton missed winning my home state by a margin much slimmer than many would have guessed -- about five points. When I saw that, I turned to the new first couple and noted that Mr. Clinton could have carried Virginia, if only he had campaigned there.

On...