A terrorist attack is underway and this will be the longest day of your life. Are you going to survive it?

Jack is back with a brand new season of 24. The title of day 9, Live Another Day, is a reminder that just surviving a day of 24 is a success. And that raises the question: are there ways to increase your chance of surviving?

On one hand, this topic is absurd because the show is fictional. The terrorist action plays out like a zombie apocalypse and the plot is written for dramatic effect. Shocking deaths are to be expected, and except for Jack Bauer, every character can be dispensed with in a capricious farewell.

However, just like a zombie apocalypse, the fictional universe in 24 follows rules of its own. Just as smart, physically fit, and observant characters are more likely to survive a zombie apocalypse, characters embodying specific skills are more likely to survive the mayhem in 24. Thus, the plot of 24 can serve as an unorthodox case study for decision-making.

So how can you survive a day of 24? I did a “MindYourDecisions” analysis of the show. I started by watching all 8 seasons plus the movie Redemption. While watching I jotted down hypotheses and tested them against future episodes. Then I went one step further for an analytic approach. I found data from a fan website on all of the deaths and all of the terrorist plots. By classifying the size of the target, the probability of success, and the net result of each attack, I came up with a sense of the safest and riskiest places to be during a day of 24. The results were surprising and led to the first and most important survival tip in this list, presented below.

(Obvious warning: this post contains spoilers from every season except Live Another Day).

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"All will be well if you use your mind for your decisions, and mind only your decisions." Since 2007, I have devoted my life to sharing the joy of game theory and mathematics. MindYourDecisions now has over 1,000 free articles with no ads thanks to community support! Help out and get early access to posts with a pledge on Patreon. .

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1. Stay away from smaller towns, hotels, and flights

A natural starting point is to summarize the deaths on the show. Here is a graph of the worst places to be during the show.

(Data from 24 wiki)

If you lived in the 24 universe, the worst place you could have been was the town of Valencia near Los Angeles in season 6. The residents basically had no chance of survival when terrorists detonated a nuclear bomb to take out 12,000 people in a flash. This single incident constitutes 80 percent of the deaths in the show.

The second worse place was the Chandler Plaza Hotel in Los Angeles during season 3. Once again, the roughly 800 victims just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time when terrorists unleashed a biological weapon.

The third public target was airplanes. The first on-screen deaths are on an airplane when the terrorists take over flight 221. In season 4 terrorists take out Air Force One. And in season 7, airplanes are again a target when two planes are sent to crash into each other. The roughly 700 passengers in all did not have much of a chance.

The top 3 targets combine for a death toll of about 13,500, which is roughly 90 percent of the ~15,000 deaths on the show.

But it is important to place these statistics in context. While these places were the worst places to be, that is only because many terror plots were unsuccessful. Valencia was the worst place only because Jack foiled other bomb plots against the entire city of Los Angeles in seasons 2, 4, and 6. In season 3, the virus was released in the Chandler Plaza Hotel, but the larger plot to hit several states. Which brings us to the second point.

2. Be in the remote woods or in a big city

The first point makes sense. There are some remote places the terrorists never target: like campgrounds in the woods, farmlands, or very lowly populated cities. Attacking these are just a waste of time: the fatalities would be too low and it would not send a message that the terrorists are serious. So one safe place to be is a very remotely populated area.

Another safe place, somewhat paradoxically, is being in the heart of the city of Los Angeles or another big city. Why is that? It’s because Jack Bauer always stops the terrorists from killing millions. In the worst attacks, Jack Bauer has no limits. He will disobey the president; he will break into the Chinese embassy; he will go undercover and shoot his partner; he will kill the CTU director. If that’s what it takes to save lives, Jack Bauer will do what’s necessary.

Since Jack Bauer stops the worst actions, the terrorists only succeed in some of their secondary targets: like the shopping centers in Baltimore and Los Angeles, the St. Louis airport, a hotel in Chicago, and a train, bus, and subway in California.

The data backs up this narrative. Here is a classification of every terrorist plot by size, percent success, and total death count.

(Data from 24 wiki. The death counts are slightly different from the other graph, but that doesn’t matter for our purposes.)

The small targets tend to be politically valuable targets: the President or a world leader. The terrorists might fail, but they are persistent. However, this does not lead to large fatalities to the population as a whole.

The biggest targets–like the cities of Los Angeles, New York, and San Francisco–were all diffused by Jack Bauer. The terrorists were never successful.

So the real danger is in the middle: the medium to large size targets where the terrorists wish to prove their intent. These attacks happen by surprise and even Jack Bauer has limited success–with only a 50 percent success rate in the medium-sized targets and 29 percent in large-sized targets.

That the medium-sized targets often get hit makes for good drama. There’s a good example of this in season 7. The plot involved blowing up a pesticide plant in Kidron, Ohio, which would have inflicted 18,000 casualties in the nearby town. The terrorist Dubaku used this target to show he was serious about causing damage, and he wanted to threaten he would inflict worse damage. The storyline works because it’s entirely believable Dubaku could have succeeded on this medium-sized target. If he had threatened to take out the city of Chicago, well, then the viewer would know Jack Bauer would come and save the day. It turned out the plot was diffused, but it really could have gone either way–as the 50 percent success rate indicates.

Another small to medium sized target is the CTU building, which was frequently under attack. Don’t work at CTU, and especially don’t be a guard there.

In summary, the best place to be is in a remote area outside of the action. But if you’re in a suburban or metropolitan area, stay away from small and medium sized public areas like train stations, airports, malls, and hotels. You’re better off being in Dodger stadium or at the Rose Bowl, because there’s no way Jack Bauer would allow that kind of attack.

3. Obtain leverage

The previous items on this list are by far the most important: to survive, you should stay away from the danger. You’ll be safer and happier in the woods of Shenandoah or in campgrounds of Yosemite than anywhere near a big city during a day of 24.

But you cannot plan to be out of town in advance and you might be under attack. In that case, you will have to be on your best game. The rest of this list pertains to survival tips if you get caught in the action.

Jack Bauer is resourceful and shoots his way out of many difficult situations. But perhaps his best weapon is leverage. If he has knowledge or can be useful, then he will not be killed as he is worth more alive. Throughout the series, Jack gains the trust of the president, and that is the ultimate trump card for political leverage. Jack is also able to go deep undercover by offering the terrorists his special set of skills.

The character that most exploits leverage, however, is Nina Myers. After she is exposed as a traitor, she survives by selling information. In season 2 she is granted a presidential pardon for offering up a known terrorist. She parlays her information to gain immunity. She then returns in season 3 and almost manages to escape. She is caught by Jack and pleads that she has more information to offer. But this time she runs out of leverage, and characters without leverage are dispensable.

Many minor characters fail to understand leverage when they are taken hostage by the terrorists. They are instructed to assist the terrorists, and they think by doing so they will save their lives. The problem is that once they help the terrorists they are completely dispensable and the terrorists take them out. The only leverage they have is their knowledge and they might have increased their survival chances by delaying the terrorists (long enough for Jack Bauer to come and save the day).

4. Be observant

Jack Bauer is always on guard to assess if the situation is a trap. The examples are numerous so I will just list one here. In season 1 when he hands the cell phone to President Palmer, he has a gut reaction that it was a threat and threw the phone out the window. Jack is always on vigil and that is a good rule for any character.

Even the smallest detail can be important. In season 1, Behrooz Araz, a 17-year old, is sent to bury a body with Tariq. While they are digging the ditch, Behrooz noticed that Tariq was carrying a gun and suspected that Tariq had orders to kill him. Behrooz took control of the situation and fled.

A perverse application of this principle happens to characters that unknowingly are in bed with the enemy. The important part is that they all learn of this betrayal before the other party turns on them.

For instance, there are multiple women who sleep with the enemy unknowingly, like (season 1) Elizabeth Nash who didn’t question lavish gifts from Alexis Drazen, or (season 7) Marika Donoso, a waitress who was involved with Ike Dubaku, and (season 8) Kayla Hassan, the daughter of President Hassan who became romantically involved with the Tarin Faroush, later revealed to be a traitor.

The men get in on the action too. Jack was unaware of Nina as a spy when he was involved with her. And in season 8, Cole Ortiz is engaged to Dana Walsh and helps cover up her illegal activity.

Strangely all of these characters–except for Marika who dies heroically–survive the day. But this just goes to show that surviving the day physically is not the same as getting out unscathed–they all were pretty devastated by what they had done.

5. Be physically fit

In a zombie apocalypse, a pair of sneakers and good legs will help you outrun the enemy. Not so much in a terrorist attack: you really can’t outrun a nuclear bomb, automatic weapons, or a biological weapon.

But there is one scene that demonstrates physical fitness is important. In season 5, the CTU building is under attack as Sentox nerve gas is released into the ventilation. Edgar races to make it to the sealed Situation Room but he just can’t make it in time.

(see image at 24spoilers)

In 24 you need every bit of good luck and physical fitness just to stay alive.

Final tip: Fake your own death

Ultimately, the universe of 24 is a ruthless world and anyone that survives one day can expect payback in the future. The enemy is coming, and they will find you. So how you do survive then?

If you are constantly the target of an attack, the final resort is to fake your own death. This is a tactic that is used by Jack Bauer (in season 4 to avoid the Chinese), Tony Almeida (seasons 4 and 5), the bodyguard Aaron Pierce (season 5), and Renee Walker (season 7). The enemy can’t go after you if they think you’re dead.

After reviewing all the deaths in the show, the lesson is your best chance to survive is to avoid being a target by staying in a remote area or being in a densely populated area. If you’re stuck and under attack, be observant and figure out leverage. And then you just have to have a little bit of luck and hope that Jack Bauer comes to your aid.

Predictions for day 9: Live Another Day

The trailer indicates the action will take place in London and involves an assassination attempt, suggesting the plot might be similar to day 1. Based previous seasons, this is our best guess of day 9.

–The death count will be in the thousands as the terrorists hit a public area with a bomb (train station or small town) to show they are serious.

–Someone will be sleeping with a mole, but they manage to survive.

–Jack Bauer fakes his or someone else’s death.

Of course the writers could be hoping to catch us off guard. I’m looking forward to the new season.

As comprehensive as I tried to be, I’m sure I’m missing some points. What are your tips to survive a day of 24? What do you think will happen in the new season?