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Who else was there, after all? Carly Fiorina? Scott Walker? Chris Christie? Rand Paul? Lindsey Graham? Big egos all, but little in the way of realistic prospects all. As happened with the 2012 nominee, Mitt Romney, it seemed possible Bush would be the last man standing if only because the alternatives were so spectacularly uninviting. A Bush nomination might not be inevitable, but it certainly seemed possible.

Consider the list of recent Republican nominees: Mitt Romney, John McCain, George Bush, Bob Dole, George Bush

Not any more. Bush’s limp performance in the most recent debate has pushed a lot of observers over the line represented by Section 12, Article 9. Bush, more and more U.S. pundits are declaring, has blown his chance, presuming he did have one. He’s “probably toast,” conceded Nate Silver, the respected data cruncher at fivethirtyeight.com (there are 538 votes in the electoral college). CNN declared his campaign “is facing a full-blown existential crisis.” His “favourability rating” has fallen 28 points since June, more than any other candidate. He’s ahead of just two other candidates: Christie and Paul. The story surrounding his campaign has become so negative he was forced to make the kind of statement politicians never want to make, insisting his campaign “is not on life support.” Hardly the words of a candidate cruising towards victory.

Bush’s problems have always been evident. He’s boring. He can’t rev up an audience to save his life. He’s the third Bush to seek the job, and even less interesting than the first two. He had a respectable record as governor of Florida, but lots of governors have respectable records. He’s bright and innovative, but incapable of communicating his ideas in a way that arouses enthusiasm. He’s relatively moderate in a party that is increasingly handcuffed by a small core of ultra-conservative zealots, and not sufficiently impressive to rally the party’s establishment wing behind him. He started his campaign with support in the single digits and hasn’t been able to make headway against Trump or retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, neither of whom should grace any ticket that wants to be taken seriously. Next to likely Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton he looks downright insipid, and Hillary is hardly an overflowing chalice of charisma.