In those heady days after he vanquished Steve the Embalmer in the 2015 election, Justin Trudeau had poll numbers higher than the world’s newest prime number.

I exaggerate. That number has over 23 million digits. Trudeau had a mere 70 per cent of decided voters in places like Atlantic Canada, and double-digit leads almost everywhere else over the rag-tag party Harper left in his wake.

So it’s a big surprise to find that Canada’s most reliable number-gazer, Nik Nanos, has come out with a poll that shows that Trudeau and his party have returned to the political plane occupied by mere mortals. If Nanos has it right, the Conservatives are a mere three points behind the Liberals in decided voter support. That’s what is known in the business as ‘striking distance’.

Nanos is the first to admit that this surprising result is just one poll and might not signal a trend. It could easily be an aberration — like that one amicable meeting between Donald Trump and bi-partisan congressional leaders before the president resumed his smash-mouth politics.

And there are other aspects of the poll that are decidedly Liberal-friendly. Twice as many respondents preferred Trudeau to Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer as prime minister. Trudeau has a 24-point lead over Scheer when it comes to who has the best qualities to be a political leader. Finally, 53 per cent of Canadians say that they would consider voting Liberal, while the Tory number for accessible voters is six per cent lower. Those are extraordinary numbers by any measure.

So it certainly isn’t time for the Liberals to break out the lifeboats. But there is a hint of smoke seeping out of the engine room. The Conservatives achieved their remarkable voter support levels with a leader whose style could put a charging rhino to sleep at fifty paces. Imagine what the polls would look like if they had picked someone with a pulse — a Michael Chong or Maxime Bernier — instead of Harper Lite. As the saying goes, people want the organ-grinder — not the monkey.

Nik’s numbers suggest that the Conservative party is competitive even though its leader is not. The Liberals have the opposite problem. Their leader, paint chips and all, is apparently running ahead of his party. Nearly two out of three Canadians believe that Trudeau has the right political stuff as leader, yet the Tories are nipping at the Liberals’ heels on decided voter support.

So having the man on top of the wedding cake for your leader is a good thing, right? Not necessarily. I was once told by a senior police investigator that he would take a solid circumstantial case over an eyewitness to the crime every time.

Why? Because if anything happens to the credibility of the eyewitness, the case evaporates. With a solid circumstantial case, the defence has to deconstruct an integrated body of evidence — a much harder thing to do.

The baggage is about to get heavier for the Liberals with the approach of legalized marijuana, the possible Trumpian train-wreck of NAFTA, and Canada’s shameless equivocation on international files — when voters had hoped for better. The baggage is about to get heavier for the Liberals with the approach of legalized marijuana, the possible Trumpian train-wreck of NAFTA, and Canada’s shameless equivocation on international files — when voters had hoped for better.

And so it is with the Liberals and their ceremonial superstar. Their ability to make the case that they’re qualified to run the country depends on Trudeau maintaining his shine. To the extent that his image remains intact, a second term for the Grits should be easier to get than a second beer on a hot day.

But if Trudeau has no more to show than his abs, good looks and personal charm — even if it is on the Late Show with Stephen Colbert — the all-image, all-the-time approach could wear thin. If it does, the Tories are back in the game — to say nothing of what the NDP and their new, untried leader might do when they finally get on the political radar screen.

It’s almost inevitable that Trudeau’s numbers will decline. All incumbents acquire policy baggage — the usual farrago of broken promises, face-plants and tiresome tricks that sooner or later catches up with almost every politician. That baggage is about to get heavier for the Liberals with the approach of legalized marijuana, the possible Trumpian train-wreck of NAFTA, and Canada’s shameless equivocation on international files — when voters had hoped for better.

What, for example, was the point of Canada hosting a huge meeting in Vancouver on the fate of the Korean Peninsula without the participation of the Russians and the Chinese? After all, they might end up having a thing or two to say about what happens there. And why hold the meeting at all, since the two Koreas are now talking to each other directly again? It couldn’t be the photo-op with Rex Tillerson, could it, madame minister?

And then there are the small things. Why would any government want to cancel grants for Bible camp counsellors because their religion has a different view of women’s reproductive rights than the current government? I agree with the government — but punishing people with public money for having different religious views doesn’t sound Charter-compliant to me. It sounds like a Harper tactic.

I, for one, also expected Team Trudeau to do better on the matter of how best to organize political debates in the 2019 federal election and beyond. Do Canadians really want the government, as planned, to design and create an “independent” body to organize these snorefests? Do we really want another broad public consultation behind closed doors to determine what Canadians will see and hear at election time?

Everyone knows what’s wrong with TV debates in Canada: they’re designed to minimize damage to party leaders with formats that work like intellectual chastity belts. They’re all about insulating the participants from anything that looks like decisive communication.

Above all, they’re all about assuring participants that no matter what happens, everything humanly possible has been done to make sure that every answer is designed to go Twitter-deep and no further.

My own preference would be for a series of one-on-one, hour-long debates between leaders. That would allow viewers to decide for themselves which leaders know what they’re talking about, and which ones merely memorized their talking points. Make it commercial-free and moderator-free, and let the GG introduce the contenders and say good night.

The biggest thing that could tarnish Trudeau personally, and hurt his party, is any public displays of toadyism towards the king of chaos, Donald Trump. Canadians can’t stand this guy, and neither can many other people. Gallup is reporting that global confidence in U.S. leadership has plummeted to an all-time low.

How bad is it? Among the 134 countries polled, the U.S. now ranks below China — at a time when Trump has the lowest approval rating of any president after one year in office. Trudeau needs to show a little more Vicente Fox when it comes to this rogue regime, and a little less of the smiling nephew.

All that said, it’s still unlikely that Scheer will ever be prime minister. It’s also unlikely Justin Trudeau will be looking for a new job after 2019. But Liberals need to start looking over their shoulders, before they find it’s too late.

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