October 7, 2016 - Women, Non-Whites Give Clinton 5-Point Lead Over Trump, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Independent Voters In Big Shift To Clinton

PDF format



Additional Trend Information

Sample and Methodology detail



A 20 percentage-point lead among women and a 45-point lead among non-white voters lift Democrat Hillary Clinton to a 45 - 40 percent likely voter lead over Republican Donald Trump, with 6 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and 3 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.





This compares to a too-close-to-call result in a September 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing Clinton with 44 percent, Trump at 43 percent, Johnson at 8 percent and Stein at 2 percent.





In a head-to-head matchup, Clinton gets 50 percent to Trump's 44 percent, compared to 47 percent for Clinton and 46 percent for Trump September 26.





In the four-way race, women back Clinton 53 - 33 percent as men back Trump 49 - 37 percent. White voters go Republican 51 - 38 percent while non-white voters go Democratic 63 - 18 percent.





The biggest shift is among independent voters, who go from 42 - 35 percent for Trump, with 15 percent for Johnson September 26 to 46 - 32 percent for Clinton, with 10 percent for Johnson today. Republicans back Trump 87 - 5 percent while Democrats back Clinton 89 - 3 percent.





"Post-debate, Hillary Clinton checks all the boxes. With her base of women and non- white voters now solidly behind her and independent voters moving into her column, Donald Trump gets a wake-up call," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "The Indies are leaving in droves."





"Can Trump make a come-back in Sunday's debate or will Clinton score another W?"





American likely voters 18 to 34 years old back Clinton over Trump 48 - 27 percent, with 11 percent for Johnson. Clinton leads 47 - 39 percent among voters 35 to 49 years old. Voters 50 to 64 years old go 48 percent for Trump and 43 percent for Clinton. Voters over 65 years old are split 46 - 46 percent.





From October 5 - 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,064 likely voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.





The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia and the nation as a public service and for research.





Visit http://www.qu.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.





1. If the presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine the Democrats, Donald Trump and Mike Pence the Republicans, Gary Johnson and Bill Weld the Libertarians, and Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka the Green party candidates, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton and Kaine, Trump and Pence, Johnson and Weld, or Stein and Baraka?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Clinton and Kaine 45% 5% 89% 46% 37% 53% 46% 30% Trump and Pence 40 87 3 32 49 33 42 60 Johnson and Weld 6 5 2 10 9 3 6 4 Stein and Baraka 3 - 3 7 3 4 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 - 1 1 - DK/NA 4 2 2 4 3 6 4 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht Clinton and Kaine 48% 47% 43% 46% 30% 45% 38% 63% Trump and Pence 27 39 48 46 59 44 51 18 Johnson and Weld 11 7 4 3 8 3 5 7 Stein and Baraka 9 3 2 - 2 2 2 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 - - - 1 1 - DK/NA 5 2 3 5 1 5 4 5

2. If the only candidates were Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine the Democrats and Donald Trump and Mike Pence the Republicans, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton and Kaine or Trump and Pence?

LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Clinton and Kaine 50% 5% 95% 57% 42% 58% 50% 32% Trump and Pence 44 91 4 37 53 36 45 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 5 2 1 5 5 5 3 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht Clinton and Kaine 58% 53% 46% 48% 33% 48% 41% 73% Trump and Pence 34 45 49 47 63 46 54 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 1 - 2 1 1 DK/NA 7 1 3 5 3 5 4 5

*Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Clinton or Trump Q1 Respondents who named Clinton or Trump in Q1 assigned to initial preference.





3. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of motivation to vote in this year's presidential election; are you more motivated than usual, less motivated, or about the same as usual?