Lupe Valdez climbed onto a forklift for a photo op that could either help define her candidacy for governor or make her look ridiculous in a Michael Dukakis way.

Remember Dukakis? He's the former Massachusetts governor who famously allowed news coverage of him wearing a helmet in a M1 Abrams tank during his 1988 presidential race against George H.W. Bush.

For Valdez the danger is not campaign blunders, it's that nobody is watching her low-key race for governor against incumbent Republican Greg Abbott.

The contest for governor is usually the marquee matchup in Texas' midterm elections. But this time around, the contest between Abbott and Valdez is being described by some analysts as the least anticipated governor's race in Lone Star State history and one that is already over.

Lacking the money, star power and organization of another statewide Democratic candidate, U.S. Senate hopeful Beto O'Rourke, Valdez has been relegated to piecing together a campaign on the fly.

Meanwhile Abbott, a one-term incumbent with a big lead in the polls, has the luxury of using his resources to energize voters for other Republican candidates. That could thwart Democratic Party efforts to win in competitive legislative districts, including several in North Texas.

"Her race is de facto closed. I don't think anybody saw that it would be so conclusive so soon," said veteran Republican political consultant Bill Miller. "With all due respect, it's the all-time weakest candidacy for governor in history. The race is already over and it's a dream situation for Abbott."

Democrats recognize Valdez's predicament, particularly when contrasted with O'Rourke's remarkable effort.

Still, strategist Matt Angle said Valdez, who is campaigning on her ability to relate to average Texans, has a life story that sells better than that of Abbott.

"She needs to emphasize that and use her personal time to meet with as many people as she can," Angle said. "She hasn't built up any bad will. People who know her are pulling for her. She's an earnest person who contrasts well with Abbott, a professional politician."

Undaunted, Valdez says the bulk of her life is composed of uphill battles that turned into success, including in her 2004 underdog race for Dallas County sheriff.

"What's important is that we continue to bring our message out," Valdez said after a campaign stop in Arlington. "We spend maybe one or two days in Dallas and the rest we are out. Everywhere we go we are providing our message. People are excited to vote for someone they can identify with."

Valdez said she's worked two jobs to make ends meet and once didn't have health insurance, something many Texans are going through.

"If you believe the polls Hillary would be president," Valdez said. "I know what I see in the trail. I know what's going on. It's an uphill battle, but what other kind of battle is there?"

A spokesman for Abbott said the governor is taking nothing for granted against Valdez but understands his advantages.

"The governor is continuing to travel the state and meet with folks and trying to get out the vote up and down the ballot," said Abbott campaign spokesman John Wittman. "Our goal is not just to beat Lupe Valdez, but to help Republicans throughout the entire state."

At a McKinney GOP event on Monday, Gov. Greg Abbott greeted Attorney General Ken Paxton and his wife, Angela Paxton, who's running for Texas Senate. Abbott is running a large ad buy, partly to help down-ballot Republicans such as the Paxtons. (Ryan Michalesko / Staff Photographer)

On paper, a mismatch

In March Abbott cruised to an easy win in the GOP primary and then jumped to a huge lead against Valdez in most polls. The former Dallas County sheriff won her party's nomination after beating Houston investor Andrew White in a runoff.

Valdez had little money for her primary fight against White, and the campaign poverty continued for the general election. Abbott has raised $50 million for his campaign and has already spent over $22 million. He started his media campaign this week.

Valdez had only $222,000 in the campaign report filed July 15. She's spent over $200,000 for the campaign.

Valdez has had some missteps.

Abbott blasted her for not making on-time property tax payments for real estate she owns in Dallas and Ellis counties. And last month The Dallas Morning News reported that a 9mm gun Valdez used as sheriff had not been accounted for after she left the department Dec. 31. After news accounts of the missing gun, it turned up in the Sheriff's Department's property room. But Valdez, perhaps unfairly, was compared by her rivals to Barney Fife, the bumbling deputy sheriff on the old Andy Griffith Show.

After a slow start, Valdez has picked up the pace, attending small campaign events designed to introduce her to voters throughout the state. In Austin Saturday night, she was a headliner for the Texas Democratic Party's annual Johnson Jordan Dinner.

Yet, Valdez's activity is dwarfed by other candidates on the November ballot, especially O'Rourke.

"No matter how good of a candidate she will be, she will be vastly overshadowed by Beto O'Rourke," Miller said.

Valdez acknowledges that O'Rourke has dominated the Texas political scene.

"I'm OK with that," she said. "What's important is to continue to bring our message out."

Political asset?

Though she's a long shot to beat Abbott, Valdez is seen by many Democrats as a political asset.

They hope Dallas County's first woman, Hispanic and lesbian sheriff can appeal to several demographic groups in different regions of the state. That would not only help down-ballot Democrats but also O'Rourke, who still needs help in reaching the minority voters that don't know him.

"She can help increase the Hispanic vote where Beto is not known," said state Rep. Rafael Anchia, D-Dallas. "She can also help raise the Democratic vote totals in Dallas County."

But a recent Telemundo Mason-Dixon poll of Hispanic voters showed Valdez beating Abbott in Dallas-Fort Worth by only 41 percent to 40 percent. Her biggest lead was in the Brownsville/McAllen area, where she led by a 54 percent to 32 percent margin. Abbott outpolled Valdez in San Antonio 43 percent to 40 percent.

"There's not much evidence of her campaign down here," said Jerry Polinard, a political scientist in Edinburg. "She's going to win the popular vote here, but overall it's an election that virtually everybody says she has no chance of winning."

But Anchia suggested that Valdez could make up ground by "nationalizing" the governor's race by tying Abbott to President Donald Trump.

"Trump's numbers continue to dive and Greg Abbott has not stood up to Donald Trump on anything material," Anchia said.

State Rep. Chris Tuner, D-Arlington, and the leader of the House Democratic Caucus, said Valdez can contrast herself with Abbott at their Sept. 28 debate in Austin.

"The sheriff has a good opportunity to focus on the issues that are important to her and Democrats at the debate," Turner said. "Democrats are energized all over the state, and just being out there on the trail talking to voters is very important."

Richard Levy, president of the Texas AFL-CIO, said Valdez appeals to working families because she identifies with their values.

"The way that she approaches politics really resonates with our folks," Levy said. "People will understand that if she's governor, they are going to have a much better shot at it."

Levy said Valdez's message can offset some of Abbott's money.

"She should go out and talk to as many people as she can," he said. "We don't have the money that Greg Abbott has. We never will, but we can organize people, and that's what we're going to do."

Abbott is not exactly burning up the campaign trail either but has had several policy proposal rollouts across the state. He's in McAllen on Monday to unveil the second part of his public safety plan.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott greets supporters before speaking at a Collin County Republican Party event Monday in McKinney. (Ryan Michalesko / Staff Photographer)

The governor is also campaigning for other GOP candidates. In Dallas County he's paid for campaign mailers that back incumbent District Attorney Faith Johnson, whom he appointed to the post in 2016 to replace Susan Hawk.

"He's basically campaigning for everybody else," Miller said. "He's an all-purpose utility candidate that is helping Republicans win in other races."

Valdez hopes to stun Abbott in November, saying his resources don't scare her.

"The grassroots organizations will all be together," she said. "We will defeat the money machine."