Josh Okogie is one of the most overlooked prospects in the draft who has a ton of upside. (Rob Kinnan/USA Today Sports)

The 2018 NBA Draft is approaching very quickly, and while it’s good to get familiar with the prospects considered most likely to end up going very high, it’s also important to identify the players who may not be picked as highly but could definitely end up outperforming their draft position. One player who I think has a great chance of doing just that is Josh Okogie.

Profile

For those unfamiliar with Okogie, he’s a 6'4 sophomore guard from Georgia Tech with an outlier-level wingspan for his size at 7'0 combined with a strong frame. He was forced to take on a very high usage at Georgia Tech (27.2% in his career) as he didn’t have the luxury of playing with very good offensive creators or floor spacers. Okogie also tested out extremely well at the NBA Combine last May, with a 3.04 second three quarter sprint and 42 inch vertical leap, both either were the best or tied the best marks at the combine this year.

Context at Georgia Tech

So, you may be wondering why a prospect who is still pretty young (turns 20 in September) and tests so well athletically while having some nice offensive production isn’t considered by many a lock to go in the first round. Unfortunately for Josh, the Georgia Tech team that he played for was borderline insulting to watch this year, especially after they lost their starting point guard towards the end of the year and I think it has created a more negative perspective on him than I think is deserved.

In the play below, Josh Okogie is able to trail behind everybody else and has a wide open 3 point shot. His teammate, Tadric Jackson, has the ball in the paint and is surrounded by at least 3 Miami defenders so it should be pretty obvious here what’s going to happen here right?

Oh wait, he gets blocked because he’s Tadric Jackson. Plays like this aren’t too uncommon when watching this team.

It can be frustrating to see how sometimes the Georgia Tech players refuse to move without the ball, and this will force Okogie to take a lot of difficult, contested mid-range shots, not a shot you want to take but especially not for a guy like Okogie who hit only 29.3% of his 2 point jumpers this year (per Hoop-Math).

Even though the shot in the play above does go in, it’s still frustrating how often Okogie either has to settle for or just decides to take that type of shot.

On defense, Georgia Tech runs a not-quite-zone scheme that featured a lot of low IQ players around Okogie. Players would often be seen double teaming and leaving a player wide open just a pass away, getting blown by after trying to go for a steal or block, ball watching, fouling at inopportune times, or just not knowing what they were doing. Josh Okogie can definitely be included as being guilty of these things from time to time but I do think it’s important to inform you that this was a poorly executed defensive scheme.

Scoring Upside

One thing that is very exciting about Josh Okogie is that despite being an unpolished player he’s actually a pretty natural scorer. He gets to the lane pretty easily despite not having a super tight handle, and his jump shot looks very nice despite some poor numbers shooting from the mid-range.

His 3-point and free throw numbers indicate that he should be much more efficient in the mid-range than he’s been in college, so while some of the shots he takes are confusing I think that his mid-range shooting percentage is a product of the offense around him and his decision making as opposed to him lacking the touch to hit them.

One thing I love about Okogie is that his catch and shoot 3 is pretty legit. He’s got a nice form and isn’t always hugging the college 3-point line like you might see a lot of other prospects doing. It needs to be sped up a bit in order for him to get it off more easily but I think that’s something he can definitely work on in time.

Okogie has some problems with finishing but he has plays like this where he is able to use his length or his strength to his advantage that make me high on him eventually becoming a very good all-around NBA scorer.

He just needs to show things like this more often, as I’ll mention later he doesn’t always embrace contact or knows how to his physical gifts to his advantage. But when he really drives hard to the rim and finishes through contact instead of fading away from the basket a bit he gives you hope that he can figure it out.

Defensive Versatility

A lot of Okogie’s defensive projection is just that: projection. He’s not very consistent or very polished but he will give you something virtually every game he plays that make you excited about his potential on that end.

With his size and athleticism, Okogie is an easy switch candidate. He’s got more than enough size and agility to guard players 1–4, something that will keep him on the floor especially in the playoffs.

I really like Okogie on the ball. He’s got good feet and his physical tools allow him to keep players on the perimeter and contest or even reject their shot attempts. His length is an absolute weapon and can be at it’s most dangerous when Okogie has to make up for a mental mistake.

In the play above, even though he lets Quentin Snider get around him, Okogie’s length gives him a lot of room for error and forces Snider to completely air ball a layup attempt.

And then this is just an incredible display of Okogie’s hustle, timing, and length as he pins what should be an easy layup attempt against the backboard. He’s definitely not a polished defender but he gives you plays like the 2 above every now and then just to remind you how good he could be on that end.

Offensive Concerns

This isn’t all to say that Okogie is a perfect prospect either, while I might point out how terrible the Georgia Tech offense is and how it limits him, there are still plenty of reasons to worry about him. First of all, his struggles as a finisher are probably the most concerning thing in my eyes. He doesn’t always embrace contact despite being very strong and will often struggle to finish when he’s getting bumped a bit.

The play above is kinda embarrassing, even if he did get fouled. He’s going to the rim and the only thing standing in his way is Chris Lykes, who in case you don’t know is listed at 5'7" and 160 lbs. (I could probably write another piece about my love for Chris Lykes but I will save that for another day). Safe to say that’s an easy bucket for a guy like Okogie with his strength and length. Unfortunately Okogie doesn’t use his body to fight through Lykes and go all the way to the basket, instead he decides to puts up a very weak layup attempt. Plays like this are quite worrisome.

However he makes up for that a bit by getting to the line at a high rate and converting, getting to the line 6.8 times a game last year and hitting 82.1% of his shots there. Still, he needs to be a more creative finisher and embrace contact more in order to fulfill his offensive potential.

Athletically, he doesn’t quite explode off the floor either. Yes he had the 42 inch vertical at the combine but as far as that translating on the court, he doesn’t really “pop” off the floor as quickly as a lot of other guys. He’s no slouch or anything, he’s still above average, but it’s still disappointing that despite the great vertical number attached to him you don’t really see that manifest on the court a whole lot.

His handle, while pretty good, will get loose at times. If he doesn’t tighten this up he will get pick pocketed by NBA players often and cough up the ball too much, such as on this play.

That should really be an easy finish or at least a trip to the line for Okogie in transition, but instead he struggles to keep his handle under control as soon as the defender gets next to him, he struggles to keep the ball close to his body, and then gets the ball poked out pretty easily where he then ends up watching it just go out of bounds.

Taking care of the ball is huge for guards and wings, and while Okogie doesn’t turn the ball over at an alarming rate, he will need to learn to keep the ball closer to his body when dribbling so as to avoid plays like that in the NBA.

Struggles as a Team Defender

As mentioned before, I think Okogie should be fine as an on ball switch defender, but his off ball defense is a different story. Too often he either will get lost off ball or just take a bad gamble from time to time. He double teams players despite his own man being a pass away, he loves to go for steals, and he will even get caught ball watching and allow his man to hit an open shot or cut to the basket.

Above, you see Okogie ball watching the whole way and then he doesn’t commit to either the man on the perimeter or near the basket. At that point he is stuck in no man’s land and lets up an easy layup. If Okogie doesn’t want to kill his team defensively he has to be more aware and make smarter decisions when the ball isn’t in front of him.

Conclusion

Clearly, Okogie is a work in progress, but he’s a fun one. He plays a bit unhinged and is kinda hit or miss on some plays, but he really shows off his athleticism and natural ability all the time.

The big thing that needs work with him offensively is dealing with pressure and contact, as many of his struggles finishing and turnovers come when he has little to no space, something that was hard to find at Georgia Tech. I do believe the extra room he will have to operate in the NBA game will be huge for him. It will hopefully lead to him not having to force up contested mid-range shots or having to drive to the lane when 2 of his big men are already clogging up space in the paint.

On defense, he will have difficulties off ball early on but I think he can be a good contributor to a team’s defense. The potential for him on that end is sky high with how good he is at closing out, his switch ability, hard he hustles sometimes, and then his physical tools. It will take time as he needs to work on his decision making but it’s tough to deny his upside.

So despite Georgia Tech’s woes this year, I don’t think there is much to worry about with Josh Okogie. He needs time to develop, especially mentally, but I’m willing to bet on a guy as strong and long as him to figure it out as a finisher, and eventually learn to settle down defensively and play smarter team defense. It’s a total risk for sure, but if you aren’t betting on a guy who’s strong, explosive, has a functional handle, good at closing out defensively, is very long, can guard multiple positions, has natural scoring ability, and a lot of his deficiencies could be traced back to playing for a god awful college system, then maybe you’re the one taking a risk.