This is how the Government's numbers look in the House of Representatives without Malcolm Turnbull

Updated

Scott Morrison became Australia's 30th Prime Minister after the Coalition shut down the House of Representatives in the last sitting week.

Mr Morrison faced his first parliamentary test today — an attempt to suspend standing orders to debate the deep division within the Government.

That failed, as Labor were unable to convince all of the crossbench to vote.

But the Greens have promised to move a motion of no confidence in Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton over his handling of the European au pair saga.

So how would that play out? It's particularly interesting given the Government is one member short with the retirement of ousted prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.

First things first: Suspension of standing orders

Because such a motion would not be brought on for debate by the Government, which controls what happens in the Lower House, the first step is for the Opposition or a minor party to suspend standing orders. That's the usual business of the day.

For this to happen, the Greens would need an absolute majority in the House to vote in favour of even debating the no-confidence motion.

Even with the departure of Mr Turnbull, that still requires 76 votes. It's calculated as a majority of seats in the Lower House, even if all those seats aren't filled.

If the Greens and Labor vote in favour of suspending standing orders, they need all of the crossbench to vote with them — along with Nationals MP Kevin Hogan, who is sitting on the crossbench in protest of the leadership instability.

But it would also require another Coalition MP to go rogue, and vote to bring on debate. Pretty unlikely.

There is another option — the Government could allow standing orders to be suspended, and then let the debate begin.

Then comes the no-confidence motion

Here, it comes down to a game of basic arithmetic. Any vote on a no-confidence motion comes down to a simple majority of members in the House for the vote.

Assuming the Coalition won't vote in favour of such an attack on a Cabinet Minister, Labor and the Greens would need the support of the rest of the crossbench and Kevin Hogan.

There's no guarantee Mr Hogan would ever vote against the Government.

If he doesn't back the motion, it's a tie and the Speaker decides. It would be highly unlikely for Tony Smith to vote in favour of such a motion.

So if the Greens want it to be a success, they'd need another rogue Coalition MP to cross the floor.

Topics: government-and-politics, federal-parliament, constitution, alp, greens, minor-parties, nationals, political-parties, australia

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