Republican Gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie has narrowed the gap, and he now trails Democrat Ralph Northam by only four percentage points (47%-43%), which is within the margin of error. Libertarian Cliff Hyra has the support of five percent of likely voters, and only five percent remain undecided, according to The Roanoke College Poll. The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research interviewed 596 likely voters in Virginia between September 16 and September 23 and has a margin of error of +4 percent.



The race for governor

Voters are also becoming more familiar with both major party candidates. Gillespie (34%-27%) and Northam (32%-25%) are viewed more favorably than unfavorably by voters. While 26 percent don't know enough about Gillespie to have an opinion about him, and 34 percent don't know enough about Northam, both figures are significantly lower than those in the August RC Poll.

Health care was named as the most important issue by 20 percent of likely voters. Economic issues (jobs, growth, etc.) are seen as most important by 15 percent of respondents with another 5 percent saying taxes and 1 percent referencing debt. Education was thought to be most important by 9 percent.

In the contest among two groups often thought to be pivotal in elections, Northam leads among ideological moderates (51%-32%), but Gillespie holds an insignificant lead among political Independents (42%-40%). Northam has the support of 85 percent of Democrats, while Gillespie is supported by 91 percent of Republicans. Liberals favor Northam (81%-9%) while Conservatives prefer Gillespie (77%-13%).

President Trump, the country, and the Commonwealth



While more than half of those polled (56%) disapprove of the way President Trump is handling his job, and just over one-third (36%) approve, his approval rose eight percent in a month. At the same time, a majority (54%) of respondents have an unfavorable view of him, while 35 percent have a favorable impression of Trump.

A majority (63%) of Virginians think the country is on the wrong track, while 30 percent think it is headed in the right direction. Congressional job approval sits at 11 percent, an abysmal figure but one that is slightly higher than a month ago.

A majority of likely voters (52%) think that Virginia is heading in the right direction, while 37 percent think it has gotten off on the wrong track. Almost half (49%) approve of the job Terry McAuliffe is doing as governor, while 33 percent disapprove. McAuliffe is viewed favorably by 42% of respondents.

Immigration and Confederate monuments

IPOR continues to track important issues in the Commonwealth. A majority (61%) of likely voters disagree with President Trump's decision to end DACA (32% agree), and the same number (61%) oppose building the wall along the Mexican border. While a plurality (45%) think that the number of people currently allowed to legally immigrate to the United States each year (just over 1 million) is about right, 31 percent think that is too many, and only 14 percent think it is too few. Virginians are split between favoring a system that attempts to keep families together (43%) or one that favors immigrants with job skills (41%). Finally, Virginians prefer a path to citizenship (55%) for undocumented immigrants, while 28 percent would allow them to become legal residents, and 13 percent favor deportation. Sentiment regarding immigration has changed little since we asked about that issue in February 2017.

With regard to Confederate monuments, a majority (62%) views them as historical objects, while only 28 percent see them as racist symbols. Two-thirds of respondents (66%) favor keeping statues honoring Confederate leaders such as Robert E. Lee and Stonewall Jackson intact, while 28 percent think they should be removed. Support for keeping the monuments to Civil War soldiers in place is even higher (76% think they should remain and 14% favor removal). Just over one-third of likely voters (36%) had at least one ancestor who fought in the Civil War, with a plurality of those (38%) having ancestors on both sides (35% had relatives who fought for the Confederacy, and 20% had Union soldier ancestors).

When asked the major cause of the war, a plurality said slavery (44%), followed by state's rights (36%). Support for removing the monuments that commemorate the soldiers who fought in the Civil War has increased since a similar question was asked in August 2015, when only 5 percent of respondents thought they should be removed.