Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2015 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

2/9/16 UPDATE: CLICK HERE to view this year’s fantasy golf picks for the 2016 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

This Week’s Tournament Preview

It will be another big field this week at Pebble Beach as names like Jimmy Walker (2014 event winner) and Dustin Johnson (2009 and 2010 event winner) run with veterans like Jim Furyk, Ernie Els, and Ryan Palmer. The event will kick off with the always entertaining annual Celebrity Pro-Am, which is celebrating its 30th year this year. The celebrity field will include notable stars like Andy Garcia, Bill Murray, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and many more.

The “ailing” Tiger Woods and 4-time champion Phil Mickelson will both sit this week out as 153 other TOUR pros fight it out for the title on one of golf’s most majestic courses. You’re in the clear if you run with Hunter Mahan this week because his wife Kandi (#7 on our 10 Hottest PGA TOUR WAGS list) has given birth to their 2nd child last week. We all know what happened to Hunter last time he led a tournament lead as his wife went into labor.

The course is set up to play well as dry conditions prevail this week. Spyglass Hill Golf Course and Monterey Peninsula Country Club will also be used this week in combination with Pebble Beach Golf Links to accommodate the large field of players.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

When the rest of the fantasy world was touting Mickelson and Walker, we stuck to our guns and picked Jason Day to be our horse pick of the week. For those of you who are new to our picks segment, our “horse for the course” pick is our first pick in salary cap leagues, tier 1 pick in pick’em leagues, and the must have guy on your roster. With that said, Day ended up winning the tournament after a four man playoff, racking up some serious fantasy points for our Premium Members in the process. In combination with another Top 7 pick (Walker), our week shaped up to be our best in fantasy earnings so far in 2015.

The weekend ended with a total tournament earnings of $1,411,421 which boosted our average weekly earnings to $952,465 per tournament (11 events in 2014-2015). We now have two winners picked already this calendar year, four runner-up finishes, and only eight missed cuts out of 77 players picked.

Our Tuesday Sleeper Report picks also fared pretty well this week despite their super high odds (all sleeper picks are based on 50/1 or greater odds). All five sleeper picks made the cut and our 80/1 pick Shane Lowry finished T7 with some solid earnings and fantasy points.

The Field

As the defending champion—and one of the hottest players on TOUR—all eyes will be on Jimmy Walker this week, even despite his cooling down in Round 4 of last week’s Farmers Insurance Open. Remember that Walker won here last year with a one-shot victory over Dustin Johnson and Jim Renner.

Jason Day will also look to carry momentum from his Farmer’s win last week into Pebble Beach. With that win Day took commanding 56 point jump to 7th place in the FedExCup standings as well as a four spot leap up to 4th in the World Golf Rankings.

It’s also worth noting that Jim Furyk will tee it up for the first time since this appearance at the 2014 Ryder Cup—Furyk currently sits at number 6 on the World Rankings.

A clear favorite for many this week (even after missing the cut last week) is two-time champ Dustin Johnson. The 2015 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am will be the stage of just his second start since returning from a six-month personal leave of absence. As usual, DJ will team up in the Pro-Am with his future father-in-law Wayne Gretzky.

There is some chatter about David Duval this week who has seen his fair share of success at Pebble Beach, having finished runner-up three times without ever holding the trophy, but we don’t see him as a clear contender this week.

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The Course

Pebble Beach Golf Links, one of the most desired golf destinations among amateur golfer everywhere (#3 on our Bucket List and #2 on our list of the Most Expensive Golf Courses in America), measures in at 6,816 yards and will play as a par 72 this week. This beautiful Carmel Bay coast lined track has been a favored stop on the PGA TOUR dating all the way back to 1947.

Players will attempt the other courses on the grounds this week as well, with a round at Spyglass Hill GC (6,953/72) and Monterey Peninsula CC’s Shore course (6,867/71). We’ll provide more in depth course coverage in our “This Week’s Fantasy Notes” section below.

Weather Forecast for Pebble Beach, CA (from weather.com)

The forecast this week will call for nothing but sunny and clear skies for the first three rounds with the potential for clouds to roll in on Sunday. There is no immediate threat of rain but wind always plays a factor coming off the coastline. With the temperatures sitting comfortable in the low to mid 70’s, the courses this week are expected to play true and fast.

2014 Results

Jimmy Walker wasted no time notching his third (and final victory) of the 2013-2014 wrap-around season with a shaky putt on 18 at Pebble Beach. Walker almost gave up a six-shot lead but managed to hang on to win by by just stroke over Dustin Johnson and Jim Renner.

After a wary tee shot on 18, Walker skillfully recovered on his second shot from the rough to finish 2-over on the day. The ‘final-round blues’ is something that has consistently haunted Jimmy, save for his recent Sony Win where he ran away with the prize with nobody in contention to catch him.

For more, here is a recap of what happened in the final round of the 2014 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am:

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

Television Broadcasts Thursday – Friday 3:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST (Golf Channel) Saturday – Sunday 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm EST (Golf Channel) Saturday – Sunday 3:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST (CBS)



Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM) Thursday – Friday 12:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST Saturday 1:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST Sunday 1:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST



Mobile Broadcasts Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra app for iPhone and iPad.



This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Pebble Beach isn’t a long golf course, but it presents its fair share of challenging holes from tee-to-green. Haven’t had a chance to study the scorecard and aerial photos yet? Don’t worry…we did the heavy lifting for you this week. But if you did, you’ll notice the course favors rightie golfer’s who are more adept at playing cut and fade shots, as most holes dogleg right. Since you don’t see many lefties on TOUR you can begin to rule out some of the less accurate rightie “draw only” hitters.

Hazards like cliffs and the Pacific Ocean present a threat on the right side of about 30% of the course. Of course the notorious wind gusts off the ocean at Pebble could give a rightie an advantage on a draw, but you can’t bank on the wind.

The other courses like Monterey and Spyglass Hill are no picnics either. Spyglass, traditionally the hardest course of the group, averaged +0.76 strokes over par last year. Pebble clocked in a bit higher than usual at 1.38 strokes but again, the wind changed everything last year.

Players ranked 61st to 70th will end up playing Saturday but not playing on Sunday. Those places will be marked MDF (made cut did not finish). MDF players will still earn some FedExCup points, but no cash.

Advice of the week: Pick’em leagues like Yahoo! have A, B, and C squads (you build a foursome) and we feel owners should have an easy time building their roster, but think twice before picking some obvious choices in Tier B. We’ll also be looking at some highly overlooked players with solid FPPG that could help you launch a sneak attack in a DraftStreet chip shot or other cash league. We’ll explain more below.

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2015 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

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Last Week’s Results: Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 Farmers Insurance Open

Jason Day: (Golficity Odds 8/1): WINNER ($1,134,000)

Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds 12/1): T7 ($189,788)

Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 18/1): MC

Brooks Koepka (Golficity 24/1): T41 ($23,940)

Marc Leishman (Golficity Odds 24/1): T27 ($44,730)

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 Farmers Insurance Open

Russel Knox (Golficity Odds 38/1): MC

Last Week’s Results Salary Cap Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2015 Farmers Insurance Open

Brandon Steele (Golficity Odds 50/1): T45 ($18,963)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD Stats: 2014-2015 Season

Tournaments Played 2014-2015: 11.

Total Fantasy Dollars for the Season: $810,477,124 ($952,465 weekly average).

Total Top 10s: 23 out of 77 picks (29.87%).

Total Top 3s: 12 out of 77 picks (15.58%).

Runner-Up Finishers: 4 in 11 events (36.36%).

Total Winners Picked: 2 in 11 events (18.18%).

Total Missed Cuts: 8 out of 77 players picked (89.61% made the cut).

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2015 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am with other Premium Members.

Want more sleepers and long-shots for this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am? Check out the guys on 50/1 or greater odds who have a shot at making some waves in this week’s Sleeper Report here.

(Cover Photo Credit)

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