Nigel Farage is on course to fail in his bid to become South Thanet’s first Ukip MP and the party is expected to lose half its seats in the upcoming general, experts have predicted.

The Election Forecast website, run by three university election experts, has predicted Ukip will win just one seat in the poll on 7 May, it has been revealed by the Sun on Sunday.

The website, has said not only will Farage fail to wrestle the Kent seat away from the Tories, Tory defector Mark Reckless will lose his seat in Rochester and Strood. That will only leave Douglas Carswell hanging on in Clacton-On-Sea.

In a extract from his memoir The Purple Revolution, published in the Daily Telegraph last month, Farage said if he did not win a seat in the commons he would resign as party leader as it was “frankly just not credible for [him] to continue to lead the party without a Westminster seat of [him] own.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15 Show all 10 1 /10 In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15 In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15 Andrew Hawkins (ComRes) “I am thinking Labour will be the largest party. Cameron is making no headway and refusing the debate was a misjudgement. Even if the Conservatives are the largest party I cannot see how they can win enough seats to form a viable alternative to an Ed-led, three-way arrangement with the Lib Dems and SNP.” Andrew Hawkins In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15 Joe Twyman (YouGov) “Ed Miliband’s performance at the challengers’ debate could boost his ratings, and may result in a short-term boost for his party’s fortune, but I think it unlikely to change the overall picture longer term.” In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15 Ben Page (Ipsos MORI) “Labour had the better week, and Ed Miliband is improving his personal ratings from a low base, but neither of the two main parties is getting a majority in these numbers.” In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15 Rick Nye (Populus) “Still no change.” In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15 Nick Moon (GfK) “I agree with Rick [Nye, who said “no change” last week]. Most campaigns don’t really see much change.” In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15 Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation) “On the balance of Thursday’s debate – I’m staying unchanged.” In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15 Michelle Harrison (TNS) “The Conservatives and Labour have barely moved. The most notable event? The SNP hitting 52 per cent on the latest TNS Scotland poll. A key theme for this election is the impact of ‘edge’ politics on the centre.” In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15 James Endersby (Opinium Research) “Our poll gives the Tories a four-point lead. It was carried out either side of Thursday’s TV debate so we haven’t seen the expected dent in Tory fortunes yet. The pattern we’ve seen for a while now appears to be unaffected by week-to-week events. If our figures hold fast, the Lib Dems would still be kingmakers as Tories plus DUP wouldn’t equal 326 seats, but neither would SNP plus Labour. Both sides would need the Lib Dems to eke out a majority.” In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15 Martin Boon (ICM) “We caused something of a kerfuffle this week with a Tory six-pointer. Looking back over the last four campaigns, on each occasion the incumbent government just failed to reach the vote share achieved on our first campaign poll. As I’m reaching for an answer, on that basis alone I’ll go for 36 per cent for the Tories and 34 per cent for Labour.” In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15 Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls) He refuses to make predictions. “My polls are snapshots, not predictions.” Rex

But he has come under fire in recent weeks, after it was alleged by the Mail on Sunday that he had suppressed an internal poll which showed him narrowly losing to Conservative candidate Craig Mackinlay.

This is a far cry of Farage’s boast at the end of last year that his party could scoop up to 40 Westminster seats.

But Ukip officials were quick to play down the claims, telling the Sun: “Forecasts like these don’t take into account a ‘shy Ukip’ factor. We are bullish but not complacent.”

The Independent has got together with May2015.com to produce a poll of polls that produces the most up-to-date data in as close to real time as is possible.

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