I want to talk quickly about two things that pertain to this daily fantasy baseball column. First, variance again. Yes, I know you’ve heard it. But, I’m caught up in some of the negative variety and I’m sharing with you how to fight your way out of it. Second, the format. I want to experiment with a different style of sharing my plays with you. It’s likely temporary, but this is my playground for seeing how much time something might take going forward.

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Onto the first thing…..variance. I rostered Syndergaard last night, like almost everyone knew they should have. I got a solid/great start from him as expected. I looked at the cap space I had left and wondered where I could fit in one big bat and surround the rest with value plays. The CIN stack didn’t do squat……but it WAS the play. How do I know? In my frustration last night (all 4 Survivor LUs busted out, which shocked the crud out of me honestly), I went looking at the other bigger names with whom I was competing. Big volume named cash gamers like CSURAM88, Birdwings, ChipotleAddict, BringMeVaught, Zoom_Zoom, and a few others. We ALL had the same stack and same pitcher. Only two of us made it over the 50% line. That quite honestly validated my bad night. It told me of those big-timers were on the same guys (our LUs only differed by about 3 players each) that my thought process was nails. I’m identifying the same plays as the “pros.” It was simply negative variance. I look back at my philosophy over the season and this past week has been an “off” week. But, the process of identifying the players correctly is there. Honestly, it made me feel a lot less frustrated to go back through all of our LUs and compare them. I looked at how much they stacked, which teams they stacked, which OTHER players they chose, and came to the conclusion there was very little overlap in what we all saw. Some of you are doing great…..and that’s awesome. But, some of you aren’t. I’m writing this for both of you to review when times get tough, because eventually we all go through some of the negative variance.

Secondly, the format. Instead of going game by game today, I’m going to provide the players I like the best. This is another area I’ve noticed I will identify a lot of the same players. But, I want to briefly explain WHY I like them. It will help me explain a few of the “key stats” I continue to work on for our 3rd Inning of the Hard Nine Series: Critical Stats. The piece is due out sometime soon; it just depends on getting the time freed up from “life” to tie it all together with a pretty little bow.

Let’s get it on for Tuesday, April 19th!

**In case I haven’t mentioned it, and you don’t know where to find the DFS ARMY, just look HERE. We are a growing community of soldiers dedicated to teaching YOU how to build better LUs through education, not selling player picks. Sure, we have premium content if you want a little extra depth, but we don’t have anything lined up for MLB until at least May. So, get in while it’s a free-for-all and see if you like us. You can follow us on Twitter with @ffootballgeek, @dfsarmy, or by hashing our LU clubs….. #50Club for NHL, #300Club for NBA, #Club200 for MLB and see the lineups we’ve taught our platoon to build. Also, #Learn2Build is another great one we use.**

First, an overall view of our games today, where they are played, Vegas view, run line, relevant weather and start times.

Home and away teams are pretty simple. Pitchers tend to pitch better at home.

Weather matters huge in MLB. Green is good, red is bad. Anything over a “5” should give you pause in rostering a pitcher. Hitters aren’t as affected, but warming up and shutting down and warming up and shutting down isn’t something managers like to do to their pitchers. Any delays will shorten the “lifespan” of your pitcher and affect the opportunity he has to score you points. A “0” indicates a dome team.

Favored team according to Vegas. Vegas P gives the moneyline and by how much the favored team is favored. The bigger the number, the better our pitchers has a shot at earning the win. I typically look for a number larger than 150. Vegas B shows how many combined runs Vegas is projecting the hitters to score. For hitters, the bigger the better. For pitchers, the smaller the better. The last thing you want is your pitcher on the mound in a slugfest.

Park Factor is a rating assembled by combining historical numbers of runs and home runs scored over the past few seasons. This rating is expressed in comparison to the “average” ballpark. Average is a score of 100. The greater the difference from average, the more the park favors hitters (greater than 100) or pitchers (less than 100). This number is not foolproof, though. For example, if we assembled a team of weak hitters and had them play half their games in a great ballpark, we would undoubtedly see a suppressed ballpark factor rating. But, it does give us a great idea on a given slate where we may/may not see runs scored. Use in conjunction with the Vegas B column. If you see a green number in both columns, you can consider rostering hitters from that game.

In researching pitchers, I want a heavy favorite in Vegas, a red number in Vegas B, and good weather. I also want to see a ballpark that’s bad for hitters, if possible. That’s really about it to narrowing down my list of choices for who I’ll start as a pitcher.

In researching hitters, I want a green Vegas B number, good weather (but it doesn’t have to be perfect), and a hitter’s park to play in, if possible. But, mostly I want terrible pitching on the mound. This is indicated by high run totals (green Vegas B) and even the Vegas P column because a team that is heavily favored “can be” facing terrible pitching. But, that’s getting a bit specific for this quick-hitting column. That simple graphic can really tell you a lot in 30 seconds.

BIG SLATE TODAY! – 15 games. 13 for my purposes. Again, I don’t care about that one or two early games. The issue is we only have the one, so FanDuel incorporated the SEA/CLE game into the “early” slate to offer at least a 2 game slate. Sucks because Carlos Carrasco was in a nice spot. Oh well.

Primary weather concerns are STL for the Main Slate. These showers could happen, could not. Remains to be seen. Timing will also be important, but this is the “slow moving” storm that delayed MIN last night and knocked the BAL game Sunday completely out and is causing flooding in HOU. So, I’m inclined to lay off the pitching here.

Added nerdy stuff: I was a meteorology major in college. So, let me tell you while I’m not worried as much about tonight, it might rain. The atmosphere above STL is currently a little dry, but it’s trying to saturate. There’s a funny thing that I’ve notice that if I could solve, I’d likely win a Nobel Prize, but in STL, there is a constant pocket of dry air over this city. Call it Urban Island Effect or whatever buzz word you want, but it’s a fact that storm lines split over this city and send part of the line north and part of it south. It’s the damnedest thing. We are always waiting for the atmosphere to “saturate” and see a lot of empty promises of rain/snow. Once the weatherman says the rain is “struggling,” I know we are in for a long battle and the dry air wins out a lot. My guess is this is going to be the issue. I just don’t look closely enough at the stuff anymore to know if it will still be “struggling” come game time. If it is, the game goes off just fine. So, for your BONUS TIP: I’m into rostering Jaime Garcia in GPPs and gambling on absolutely zero ownership and a guy that just tossed a 9 inning shutout with Ks like crazy. He has 60 point potential now and with people staying off the weather……..you might be onto something. The only detractor is his previous game got attention, and this is the Cubs. So, it’s a hefty gamble. But, should he drop another burger with cheese on the Cubs, you can be the hero that rostered him. Personally, I won’t be………..but we all know I don’t have balls big enough to win a 50k player GPP, either. 😉

PITCHERS

Vincent Velasquez – $9000 FD – Velasquez saw a price increase for sure, but he brings elite K-potential to the party as the highest strikeout pitcher on the slate in that statistic. The Mets coincidentally rank #8 in the same category. Unlike George Constanza’s “Worlds Colliding,” we like these collisions. We have a low total and a nice park in which we are pitching. The only detractor here is Vegas is a bit 5050 on the game. But, he’s my top pitcher on the slate for cash given his price point.

Francisco Liriano – $9500 FD – I’m looking here next. Liriano is a lefty with strikeout stuff. He decimated the Cardinals in their opening series, had a lackluster 2nd start, but now draws the Padres in their pitcher-lover of a park where San Diego has proven they can’t hit out of a wet paper bag. A heavier favorite with another low total, I’m only looking here 2nd because I feel Liriano is a little more inconsistent, but he’s a fine choice……and savings over the chalky Strasburg I would look at third.

Also consider: Stephen Strasburg (WAS), Yordano Ventura (KCR)

CATCHERS

Yasmani Grandal ($2700) – No regular is hotter, nor flying lower under the radar right now than Grandal. He bats 6th and I’m looking for him to start moving up higher. $2700 is a great price for a .530 wOBA and 1.24 OPS over the past week. Not in the greatest combo of hitting situations considering pitcher and park, but when you’re hot, you’re hot.

Jerrod Saltalamacchia ($2900) – I could go the rest of my life never having to spell that last name again. I bet his wife is hot but does nothing but bitch about having to sign that name on checks….lol. Salty is also swinging some warm wood right now. He sports a .466 wOBA and 1.11 OPS over the past week. He hits 7th in his order, but has 3 HRs in this span. And, we all know dongs are bought in bulk. He gets Ventura of the Royals, so again not a great combo of pitching/ballpark.

Also consider: Evan Gattis/Jason Castro (HOU), Wellington Castillo (ARI)

1st BASEMEN

Chris Davis ($4300) – Crush is the sort of dude that hits so many HRs you can just almost roster him in anything resembling a favorable matchup and wait for the fireworks. This is no exception, and actually a rather good matchup vs TOR. Camden is a hitter’s yard. Davis is knocking a .419 wOBA and .973 OPS line around this past week with a standard 2 dongs.

Edwin Encarnacion ($4200) – I tend to spend up when I can at 1B because it’s your most productive position as a whole. Encarnacion is facing a pitcher we want to target tonight in Mike Wright. Wright offers up a SIERA of over 5. That’s a good thing for hitters. (More on stats like these in our Hard Nine series) Edwin carries a .407 wOBA and .952 OPS over the past week, too. He is a legit double-dong threat as evidenced by his game last week where he did just that.

Also consider: Mark Teixera (NYY), John Jaso (PIT), Ben Paulsen (COL)

2nd BASEMEN

Jose Altuve ($4900) – I don’t usually spend up at 2B often. But, this is a guy worth a look. He is white hot and swinging a power bat in a HR park. He also shows signs of seeing the ball well out of Derek Holland’s hand with a .448 wOBA with a HR and two BBs in his 21 ABs vs Holland. We are targeting this game tonight with lot of bats off both Astros and Rangers. This is not a bad place to start right now.

Omar Infante ($2600) – Before you laugh me off of recommending Infante, hear me out because it might be the only time you hear me mention his name. He’s pretty cheap, KC always seems to scratch a few runs across, those runs come from up and down the LU in a balanced fashion, the lower half has been doing some of the scoring lately, Shane Greene doesn’t scare my 3 year old, and Omar is kind of in a groove with a .382 wOBA and .881 OPS this week. I bet if you looked at his career numbers, they are nowhere near those. You still might not like him, and that’s fine, but he’s not the worst way to spend $2600 right now.

Also consider: Ian Kinsler (DET), Daniel Murphy (WAS), Brett Lawrie (CWS)

SHORTSTOP

Zack Cozart ($3000) – From a spot we usually look for cost savings, Cozart has sneaky pop, is hitting well, is facing a pitcher we like targeting in a hitter’s park. It’s only a matter of time he pops one out at this point, but he still brings a 7day wOBA of .483 and an OPS of 1.15. He’s my go-to for now.

Marcus Semien ($3200) – This is another value play from last year, but he’s a tad pricey imo for the 9-slot. Look for games where he hits a little higher in the order for this price. But, over the last week, there’s no other hotter SS. For comparison, he has a 7day wOBA of .511 and an OPS of 1.31……with 3 shots over the walls for the icing on the cake. Keep your eyes on him for awhile.

Troy Tulowitzki ($2900) – As long as Tulo is healthy, this is honestly just criminal. When Tulo is priced under names like those above, it’s just wrong……but he isn’t playing like the 4k player he is at the moment. I’m putting him here because it’s only a matter of time. He is missing high strikes that he usually crushes. He hits 5th in the strongest offense in all of baseball. He isn’t going well, but it will come around. You might want to be there when it does. He’s in a fairly good spot tonight in Camden Yards.

Also consider: JJ Hardy (BAL), Elvis Andrus (TEX)

3rd BASEMEN

Nolan Arenado ($5100) – Still sort of a bargain for what he can do, Arenado is in Great American Bandbox with a pitcher we can target for the long ball. .515 wOBA and 1.21 OPS with 4 ding-dongs over the past week, you can’t argue he’s the best 3rd baseman in the league with a glove or a bat.

Travis Shaw ($2900) – This is where you might look for some cap relief. Shaw may hit 7th, but he’s in BOS. It’s not the best pitcher to target, but look at these weekly numbers: .500 wOBA and 1.17 OPS. That’s pretty strong for under 3k. And, he has a HR to his credit this week, too to go with a couple walks (always a nice indicator a hitter is seeing the ball and zone well).

Also consider: Josh Donaldson (TOR), Matt Carpenter (STL), Yunel Escobar (LAA), Jake Lamb (ARI)

OUTFIELDERS

Mark Trumbo ($4000) – Wow is this dude staying hot. Keep on that train because it will eventually stop. But, especially when in a hitting park with a pitcher we aren’t afraid of. Weekly numbers of .576 wOBA and 1.40 OPS with 4 rips out of the zip code. That’s just strong……keep the train rolling.

Matt Joyce ($2300) – Not the best park to target him in, but for under 3k you get a guy rolling well. .567 wOBA and 1.31 OPS with a homer to pad some stats. His price is criminal. He has given you 15 or more points in 3 of his last 7 games.

Delino DeShields Jr. ($3500) – We are targeting this game. Should it hit the over, we might see 6 ABs, and 6 opportunities for points, out of the Rangers’ leadoff man. With no more negative scoring, you might want to take advantage. It doesn’t hurt his wOBA is over .530 and he has a homer on the week. Hot hitter in good park in good spot facing mediocre pitcher…………….am I beating the drum hard enough yet?

Bryce Harper ($6000) – I’m sorry, but this relegates Harper to GPP status and in great matchups only at that. I know he’s hitting well, but that’s what he does. However, you don’t need to spend all this money in one spot in a roster spot you can routinely find production easier than everywhere else outside of 1B. Too rich for my blood.

Starling Marte ($3900) – Outfielders are a dime a dozen, good ones are hard to find. Well, good ones that hit for power and can run are hard to find. Marte is hitting well and has not only a homer this week but 2 stolen bags. That kind of diversity serves to help your floor and get you points from different areas. A guy like this also runs the bases and hits gaps……perfect for a park like SD when facing meh pitching.

Dexter Fowler ($3600) – Here is another that hits for some pop and can run the bases. 2 homers this week and a swipe for him as well. He leads off for the Cubs offense I plan on stacking all year long until their prices go bonkers. His has yet to for some reason and I’ve been rostering him for over 2 weeks. Mid 3k range is just dumb. But, thank you to FanDuel for overlooking him. And, shame on me for telling you so his ownership goes up sending his price up with it. Damn I’m dumb sometimes.

Also consider: Yoenis Cespedes (NYM), Keke Hernandez (MIN), Yasmany Tomas (ARI), Odubel Herrera (PHI), Angel Pagan (SFG), Brett Gardner (NYY)

I think you know the pitchers I like. But, here are the stacks I’m on. These are a combo of park, Vegas, opposing pitcher, and offensive power through the lineup. TOR, NYY, HOU, and COL.

Until tomorrow……………..roster up!