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Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

Across British industry, Brexit remains a dirty word—unless you’re a customs agent. These middlemen, who make sure goods don’t get held up at border crossings, might be just about the only businesspeople cheering for the divorce.

For a quarter-century, companies across the European Union have enjoyed frictionless trade, including no customs checks. As the U.K. prepares to leave the EU, businesses face endless paperwork to keep everything from car parts to furniture moving between Britain and its largest trading partner.

“We’re all rubbing our hands together,” says George Baker, the founder of a logistics company along England’s eastern seaboard. George Baker Shipping Ltd., which has annual sales of £20 million ($26.2 million), expects a fivefold increase in customs work after Brexit. It plans to expand its 84-person operation by about 30%, he says.

George Baker, founder of George Baker Shipping Ltd., at the company’s warehouse in Felixstowe, England, on Nov. 21. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

Even with the extensive post-Brexit economic pact with the EU that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson promises, the government expects 200 million extra customs forms a year will be needed to keep U.K.-EU trade humming. That’s because about 54% of U.K. goods imports are from the EU, the destination for half the country’s exports. At £32.50 apiece, declaration forms would cost exporters and importers about £6.5 billion more a year.

There’s a shortage of agents to handle all the work. About 180,000 traders will need to make customs declarations for the first time after Brexit, assuming the U.K. leaves the EU’s customs union—up from the roughly 141,000 that currently need to file paperwork for trade outside the EU, according to a parliamentary report. There are 8,700 intermediaries in the customs system, including agents, freight forwarders, and software suppliers. KGH Customs Services estimates at least 40,000 agents will be needed. “Currently there is no real capacity—it can be created, but not quick enough,” says Steve Cock, director of customs consultancy at KGH. The Gothenburg, Sweden-based company employs about 40 workers in the U.K. and plans to expand to 100 after Brexit, he says. KGH’s biggest client, a German multinational, will go from having to make a few thousand customs declarations per year to 500,000 after Brexit, he says. “The potential demand is huge.”

U.K. Trade in 2018 Data: Her Majesty’s Revenue & Customs

Customs clearance in the U.K. is currently handled by larger players offering a full suite of services to move goods, such as CEVA Logistics, DHL, and Kuehne & Nagel, as well as smaller outfits like Baker’s. Each form requires upwards of 40 individual pieces of data, including the value of the good, where it originated, and taxes required.

While customs agents can automate the process somewhat by setting up computer systems to integrate the sources of data and transmit them to complete a declaration, doing so for each client can take months, according to KGH. In a 2017 report on the thorny issue of customs after Brexit, the Institute for Government think tank said new computer programs will “very unlikely” deliver what’s needed, and the government “should not rely on undefined modern technology to solve its knottiest problems.”

Employees at George Baker Shipping’s offices in Felixstowe. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

On a desk in Baker’s office near Felixstowe, Britain’s biggest container port, a fat binder lists tens of thousands of commodity codes, each with an associated tariff, which must be filled into the customs declaration to ensure goods are charged the right duties. Mistakes carry a maximum fine of £2,500 per incorrect filing.

Ever since the EU ended customs checks on trade in the bloc in 1993, declarations for trade with Britain haven’t been needed. George Baker Shipping was near financial ruin when they were removed. It survived by diversifying into non-EU trade and other logistics areas, such as moving goods by road and storage services, Baker says.

On a day in late November, the company’s warehouse was filled with hundreds of pallets from countries including China and the U.S., containing such products as Peppa Pig toys, wood flooring, microscopes, and Christmas sacks. Baker will need to expand the company’s footprint to handle the extra demand after Brexit. He’s wary of scaling up just yet, in case Brexit doesn’t happen—or if it does and the U.K. later rejoins the EU or its customs union.

“I’m still a bit paranoid from having all my eggs in one basket back in the day,” Baker says, referring to when his firm focused primarily on EU trade in the early 1990s.