Change UK, formerly the Independent Group, is enjoying exceptionally good luck. Only a few weeks ago it seemed possible that a general election might be called in which the group would, in all probability, be wiped out.

Without much in the way of grassroots organisation, and with a limited degree of public recognition, it was always vulnerable to a snap general that would catch it unprepared – without even a new party name to campaign under, let alone an army of canvassers to call upon. Under first past the post, only a few of its number would have survived an onslaught by their former parties.

Now, though, in yet another twist in the Brexit saga, the probability is that elections to the European parliament will indeed be held next month, and that, under a system or proportional representation, Change UK will win its first seats.

There is good cause for such optimism on the part of acting leader Heidi Allen and her colleagues, at least so far as this immediate electoral challenge is concerned. Change UK has some good tunes. They seek to give voice to the many who seek a final say on the terms of Brexit, whenever they are determined, to be put to the British people, who will have to live with the consequences for decades.

Farage launches his new Brexit Party: in pictures Show all 10 1 /10 Farage launches his new Brexit Party: in pictures Farage launches his new Brexit Party: in pictures Nigel Farage speaks at the launch of his new Brexit Party's campaign for the European elections Reuters Farage launches his new Brexit Party: in pictures Brexit Party candidate Annunziata Rees-Mogg, sister of Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, speaks at the launch AFP/Getty Farage launches his new Brexit Party: in pictures A supporter waits for Farage to speak AFP/Getty Farage launches his new Brexit Party: in pictures Supporters wait for Farage to speak AFP/Getty Farage launches his new Brexit Party: in pictures Farage's socks Reuters Farage launches his new Brexit Party: in pictures Farage and prospective candidate Annunziata Rees-Mogg wait at the launch AFP/Getty Farage launches his new Brexit Party: in pictures Supporters listen as Farage speaks AFP/Getty Farage launches his new Brexit Party: in pictures Free T-shirts for all attendees AFP/Getty Farage launches his new Brexit Party: in pictures Posters on the seats for supporters of the Brexit Party AFP/Getty Farage launches his new Brexit Party: in pictures A safety sign is pictured AFP/Getty

This is a cause which enjoys substantial and increasing public support. As one of the group’s high-profile members, Anna Soubry, declared today: “No ifs, no buts, no backroom deals ... we were never on the fence, we always believed it and now we demand it ... a people’s vote.

“If MPs can change their minds and change their votes, so can the British people. It is undemocratic, it is plain wrong, to deny people the rights of this country that are enjoyed in parliament.”

Figures such as Tom Watson in the Labour Party can but sigh at such clarity of purpose being set against his leader’s likely equivocations and hedging. It would not be surprising to see further Labour defections to Change UK if, at this crucial point in the progress of Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn was seen to revert to Bennite type and stick to his own socialist Brexit agenda – though in reality only facilitating a neo-Thatcherite revolution with Boris Johnson at its head. Surely that is not what Mr Corbyn has spent all these decades trying to achieve?

The new kids on the block have also attracted some (relatively) high-profile and articulate candidates, such as Rachel Johnson and Gavin Esler, journalists with a knack for presentation and an ability to ask the right questions about the nation’s future. Ms Johnson and Mr Esler do rather conform, however, to the caricature of London-based media “insiders”.

Ms Johnson is, of course, a former Liberal Democrat member, and the question obviously arises as to what the point is in Change UK fighting against the Liberal Democrats for more or less the same voters.

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Of course, proportional presentation, as here, means that the danger of “splitting the vote” is nowhere as potent as it is under first past the post in Westminster elections. Still, the two groups have more in common than that which divides them, and, in some of the smaller regions, the particular method of PR used in British European elections will act against the two parties as they fight each other.

To a lesser degree, the same argument could be made in relation to the Green Party, though that would be to underestimate the radicalism of the Greens’ platform and the distinct flavour of their politics. In any event, the Greens are polling strongly, helped no doubt by the latest tocsin about climate change issued by Sir David Attenborough.

Against that, though, is the reality that the sheer novelty of Change UK may mean it can gain coverage and support that might be denied it if it were simply perceived as an adjunct to Sir Vince Cable and the Lib Dems. The whole of the movement for a people’s vote – spread across the different pitches of the nationalist parties Plaid Cymru and the SNP, Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland, the Greens, Lib Dems and Change UK – may equate to more than the sum of the parts.