It must be said, though, that even if we assume that a preliminary agreement is reached, and that the Canadian government proves accommodating despite its frustration over having been marginalized thus far, and that the legislative bodies of all three states ultimately sign off, there will still be far to go. The grand strategy of Trumpism demands more than just a slight tweak of NAFTA’s status quo ante. Rather, it demands a further deepening of North American economic integration, on terms compatible not just with Trump’s brand of nationalism but also, crucially, that of Mexico’s López Obrador.

Consider that one of Trump’s priorities is to revitalize America’s industrial commons. To that end, he has sought, albeit haphazardly, to reverse the integration of the Chinese and U.S. economies. Needless to say, this is a controversial proposition, not least because so many Americans have been enriched by the transpacific supply chains that form the sinews of “ Chimerica .” Yet it’s not just Trump who believes that Sino-American integration has gone much too far. So too do many leading members of the U.S. security community, who fear that an overreliance on Chinese manufacturing has sapped the American capacity for process innovation, which in turn has created a grave strategic vulnerability. Taking these assessments seriously leaves just two ways forward. The U.S. could embrace economic autarky, a ruinous path that would greatly reduce the country’s productive potential, and that might necessitate a large influx of low-skill labor , a course of action nationalist conservatives would surely reject.

Alternatively, the U.S. could pursue policies that would have the net effect of reorienting the multi-country, multi-firm production networks that are so central to its economy away from China and toward states that are, to put it bluntly, more firmly in its sphere of influence. To narrow things down further, an ideal partner would be a state in close geographic proximity with which we share deep cultural ties. Mexico fits the bill perfectly.