The NFL may be known for its parity, but look at the last few Super Bowl champions. All of those teams were considered championship contenders before the season started. With only a handful of teams standing out from the rest heading into the 2016 season, we can expect that trend to continue.

We’ve cut down the entire league into a group of six teams that have a realistic shot at lifting the Lombardi Trophy next February. Here they are, ranked in order…

1. Arizona Cardinals

Why they’ll win it all

This is the NFL’s most balanced roster. Carson Palmer played like an MVP candidate — thanks in large part to the league’s deepest receiving corps and Bruce Arians’ attacking offense — up until injuring a finger on his throwing hand in Week 15. That was really the only thing that could slow down this offense last season. And, aside from some reshuffling on the offensive line, the key pieces are all back.

The same is true on the defensive side. Tyrann Mathieu says he’ll be ready for the season opener after tearing his ACL last December. Dwight Freeney is gone, but he’s been replaced by Pro Bowler Chandler Jones. A talented secondary and improved front seven should have this defense playing at a high level once again in 2016.

Why they won’t

Injuries. Palmer has suffered two ACL tears in his career and will turn 37 later this year It’s not a given he’ll finish out the season, and Drew Stanton is not good enough to lead this team to a playoff win, let alone a Super Bowl. Mathieu has also dealt with two ACL injuries, and the Cardinals defense imploded without him in the lineup, giving up more than 36 points in two of the four games he missed. Arizona is already thin in the secondary — a position group it leans heavily on with its aggressive blitzing — so a blow to either of its big stars (Mathieu or Patrick Peterson) could spell doom for the entire defense.

2. Seattle Seahawks

Why they’ll win it all:

This defense just keeps humming along. It’s been the stingiest scoring defense for four years running after a strong finish to the 2015 season. The Seahawks let Bruce Irvin walk in free agency and did not even try to find a replacement. The same goes for the second cornerback position, where the woeful Brandon Browner may end up playing. Other than those two weak spots, the defense is stacked. Earl Thomas is the best safety in the league. Richard Sherman is still playing at a high level. And the defensive line features the league’s most productive defensive end duo in Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril.

The offense isn’t hurting for talent either, outside of an offensive line that may have gotten worse since we last saw it in action. The key is obviously Russell Wilson, who flourished when the coaching staff adjusted the offense to include more quick passing plays. Wilson will have plenty around him. Doug Baldwin is always open. Speedster Tyler Lockett is a nightmare for opposing secondaries. And Jimmy Graham, the receiving corps’ most talented player, should be more comfortable in Year 2.

Why they won’t

Their Schedule. The Seahawks and Cardinals are in a two-team race for the NFC West and possibly homefield advantage in NFC. That will loom large for two teams that play significantly better in front of their home crowds. In terms of scheduling, Arizona clearly has the advantage. The Cards will avoid Tom Brady when the Patriots visit for a Week 1 matchup, while Seattle has to travel to New England after Brady’s suspension will have ended. The Seahawks also have a late season trip to Lambeau Field. Those two games could make the difference in a tight race and decide where a these two play if they meet in the playoffs.

3. New England Patriots

Why they’ll win it all

As long as Tom Brady is on the roster and Bill Belichick is running the show, the Patriots will always be threats to win it all. New England was hit hard with injuries last season but still managed to make a run to the AFC Championship game. Now imagine what this team can do with a healthy roster. Especially now that offense features two matchup nightmares at tight end in Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett. That pair will make the task of stopping Brady and the offense all the more difficult.

Defensively, there are some question marks after the departure of Chandler Jones, but we say that every time the Patriots lose a key defender. And every time, Belichick finds a way to churn out a good defense. Don’t expect anything less in 2016. Even without Jones, this defense is still stocked with talent. Linebackers Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins compliment each other so well. Malcolm Butler is emerging as a shutdown corner. And free safety Devin McCourty makes the entire secondary’s job so much easier with his range in centerfield.

Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is one of the more creative play-callers in the league, and should be able to generate pressure with his designer blitzes if a standard four-man rush does not produce desired results. Losing Jones is a hit to the defense but not a death blow.

Why they won’t:

Brady’s suspension is a big deal, especially if Jimmy Garoppolo struggles during his four-game cameo. New England could survive a 1-3 start, but we saw how important homefield advantage was to this team in last year’s AFC title game.

The offensive line doesn’t look any better, either. The Patriots traded Jones for 2013 first-rounder Jonathan Cooper, but he was a disappointment in Arizona and is already hurt. It doesn’t matter how many receiving weapons this team has if Brady can’t stay upright.

4. Carolina Panthers

Why they’ll win it all

With Arizona and Seattle slugging it out in the West, and the Packers fending off a tough NFC North, the Panthers could have an easy road to the No. 1 seed once again.

After finishing 15-1, the Panthers only suffered one significant loss this past offseason with Josh Norman leaving for Washington after the front office rescinded the franchise tag it had placed on the star corner. The Panthers defense leans on the front seven, so while that loss will hurt, Carolina’s defense should be just fine as long as Kawann Short, Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis are still roaming around near the line of scrimmage.

The defense may have taken a tiny step back but the offense should be better in 2016. League MVP Cam Newton gets his No. 1 receiver, Kelvin Benjamin, back. The 25-year-old was not reliable as a rookie but had shown clear signs of improvement last preseason before a practice injury sidelined him for the entire 2015 campaign. He’ll join a well-balanced receiving corps. Ted Ginn reprises his role as the deep threat. Corey Brown is the quick route-runner. And Devin Funchess is another big body who will take some of the attention off Benjamin. The running game should find itself in the top-five once again with Newton giving defenses a second ball-carrier to worry about. The Panthers may not lead the league in scoring again, but scoring will not be an issue.

Why they won’t

The numbers are not in Carolina’s favor. After a fantastic regular 2015 season, the Panthers are due for some regression. The team was an unsustainable 7-1 in one-possession games. And Carolina also enjoyed a league-best turnover differential of +20, a stat that has little-to-no year-to-year correlation. Some bad bounces in close games and poor turnover luck, and this team will come back to the pack in the NFC South.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers

Why they’ll win it all

So Martavis Bryant is suspended for the season and Le’Veon Bell will miss the first month; this offense is still going to score a lot of points. Ben Roethlisberger is bordering on elite. Antonio Browns is already there. As is the offensive line, which excels in both pass protection and in the running game. Now imagine if this unit was ever at full strength. Bryant’s suspension ensures that it will never be in 2016, but even without the talented 24-year-old, this is still the deepest offense in the league. And if second-year receiver Sammie Coates’ impressive performance in camp translates to the field, the team will not even miss Bryant.

Why they won’t

The Steelers are quickly becoming the Saints of the AFC: A great offense dragged down by a porous defense. The front office has used valuable draft resource on fixing the defense in recent years, but nothing seems to work. First-round picks Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones have been disappointing. Bud Dupree showed some flashes as a pass rusher, but he’ll need some time to develop into a reliable, every down starter. The secondary was addressed this past draft, with the Steelers using their first two picks on corners Artie Burns and Sean Davis. First-year corners usually struggle, so we may have to wait until 2017 for the duo to save this secondary, which finished 30th against the pass in 2015.

6. Green Bay Packers

Why they’ll win it all

The Packers still have the league’s most talented quarterback even if Aaron Rodgers struggled last season without Jordy Nelson — the only Packers receiver who can consistently beat man coverage. Nelson’s return will make the entire offense better. Randall Cobb will have more room underneath with Nelson stretching the defense. Eddie Lacy should have fewer eight-man boxes to confront with Nelson drawing safety help over the top. Most importantly, Rodgers will not have to hold the ball as long as he did last year, when he had to buy time for the slowest receiving corps in the league to get open.

On the other side of the ball, the defense should enjoy a better pass rush with Clay Matthews moving back to outside linebacker. That leaves the middle of the defense vulnerable, though, with guys like Jake Ryan and rookie Blake Martinez as the likely replacements. The secondary is underrated. Damarious Randall impressed as a rookie corner. Sam Shields is a reliable vet who excels in man-to-man coverage. And the combination of Ha-Ha Clinton Dix and Morgan Burnett forms one of the better safety duos in the league.

Why they won’t

Age and health. Green Bay is banking on too many players on the wrong side of 30. That includes Rodgers, Nelson, Peppers and Matthews. Even the younger guys on the roster have had trouble with injuries, so it may be unrealistic to expect this team to stay healthy in 2016. Depth is an issue for the offense and the front seven. This team won’t be able to survive a key injury or two, especially in such a tough division.