Brexit will only make things worse for those in poverty, a new study claims.

This holds true whatever the final terms are, even if we agree favourable trading arrangements with the EU.

Analysis from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) says real wages are likely to fall and the cost of living will increase.

A range of different options were looked at, ranging from Britain staying in the single market (a ‘Norway’ scenario) to ‘no deal’, taking into account tariffs, non-tariff barriers to trade, immigration and investment.


The worst result would be a ‘no deal’ Brexit, which would add an estimated £480 per year to living costs for low-income households.

They could be right (Picture: Reuters)

The analysis, by Cambridge Econometrics, models a range of post-Brexit trading arrangements, providing detailed results on the potential impacts on the cost of living, wages, and employment looking ahead to 2030.



Families trapped in poverty will see no Brexit dividend – unless the Government changes course on domestic policies, the JRF said.

It comes as we are already seeing the first sustained rises in child and pensioner poverty, and there are more workers living in poverty than ever before.

Factors leading to a rise in poverty include low pay, high housing costs and freezes and cuts to benefits and tax credits.

Campbell Robb, Chief Executive of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (Picture: Rex)

Campbell Robb, chief executive of the independent Joseph Rowntree Foundation, said: ‘Many people on low incomes backed Leave after being locked out and left behind for too long.

‘Since the vote to leave the EU, families have been hit by price rises in the shops, seen their wages eaten up by crippling housing costs and had their tax credits pared back.

‘It’s hard to take control and build a better life when you’re juggling the bills and high costs are pulling you under. Two years on from the vote, this is unacceptable. And it will not change unless the Government gets a grip and delivers for people on low incomes. We need a bold package of domestic reforms, not just favourable trade terms.

‘The Government must fix this and right the wrong of in-work poverty. At the last General Election, low income voters made it clear they wanted more than Brexit delivered, demanding action on living standards too. Failing to meet their expectations of a better life after Brexit would be costly for the political parties. And it would mean millions of families being let down – and seeing no Brexit dividend.’

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