You know what it’s like – you curse your mates for getting lucky assists but as soon as you have a good week they’re on your back for being jammy, but have you noticed that there’s always that one chap in your mini-league – we’ll call him ‘Mr Lucky’ – who seems to get more breaks than anyone else? Coincidentally, he (or she?) is probably also the one who always ends up at the top of the tree come the end of the season. How is this fair?

Well, they probably aren’t as lucky as you might think. More than likely, they’ll have studied the fixtures more than you, followed the press conferences for injury news, and looked beyond the next gameweek too feed into their long term strategy. What’s more, they may delve into previous fixtures to see if any trends emerge – some footballers relish playing against certain opponents, and there’s a good chance ‘Mr Lucky’ is well aware of this.

“But there’s no way he could have known David Silva was going to have a stormer” I hear you bemoan. In a way you’re right, nobody can predict what’s going to happen. However, he’d been closely monitoring Silva over the past few matches and noticed he was coming into form. He wasn’t picking up FPL points, but it was surely a matter of time before his performances reaped the rewards they deserved; in FPL terms, he was “due”.

Admittedly, there are some occasions where skill just doesn’t come into it, but generally, over the course of a season, we all get these lucky breaks. I’m talking about that time where your main striker was inexplicably rested and your first substitute – who scored two and assisted one – automatically replaces him in your team. Sometimes, those are the sweetest points. Having said that, the opposite situation can be rage inducing; at times it can seem like whoever you decide to bench backfires – is there anything worse for an FPL manager than when your starting 11 flops but you have 25 points sitting on your bench? Rest assured, you’re not alone.

If you’re still not convinced of the skill involved, then maybe have a glance at the Hall of Fame, which ranks FPL managers based on their global ranking each year. In eight seasons, the top player – Ville Ronka – has never finished outside the top 5000 in the world, an incredible statistic for a game of almost 4 million players; luck alone cannot account for this level of consistency.

Essentially, it’s about playing the percentages well, and playing them at the right time. If you do your homework, study form and keep an eye on team news, then you’re already a step ahead of the ‘casual’ player. You never know, you may even become the next ‘Mr Lucky’.