“We’ve played well in patches. But I don’t think we played as well as we can do. The Australians have managed it. Every time we got our foot in the door, they closed it on us.”

Duncan Fletcher, January 2007

“We’ve been dealt some pretty bad cards on this tour, and haven’t played the cricket we’re capable of. But the way the guys have stuck together in the dressing room has been excellent.”

Alastair Cook, December 2013

Australia, like everywhere else, loves its festive customs. Christmas dinner is a more convivial, summery affair: fresh seafood, big bowls of cherries, giant rippling pavlovas on a platter. While Brits put the heating on and watch Top of the Pops, here families gather up their buckets and spades and head for the beach. And of course, no Australian yuletide would be complete without that most cherished of local traditions: England going into the Boxing Day Test 3-0 down, and in the jaws of crisis.

It has now happened three times in their last four visits here. And as England prepare to step onto the biggest stage in cricket, their challenge is to show a sceptical public why it should expect things to turn out any different this time.

Ashes catastrophes often look inevitable in hindsight. But often, it is only when the urn is gone that England truly implode. For Andrew Flintoff, surrendering the urn at Perth in 2006 was the point of no return. He walked into the dressing room, looked at his bat, and kicked it so hard it broke into two pieces. His drinking began to accelerate into problematic territory. Coach Duncan Fletcher was forced to cancel a training session because the skipper had turned up reeking of alcohol. “I wasn’t the only one,” Flintoff would later plead in his defence. “And it wasn’t just the players. It was like being on a booze cruise.”

Ashes third Test in pictures Show all 42 1 /42 Ashes third Test in pictures Ashes third Test in pictures alastair-cook2.jpg Alastair Cook departs after being trapped LBW for seven. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures mark-stoneman.jpg Mark Stoneman is hit by the ball on his way to making 56. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures james-vince.jpg James Vince is caught behind by Tim Paine off the bowling of Josh Hazlewood. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures joe-root2.jpg Joe Root walks off after making 20, having been caught by Tim Paine off the bowling of Pat Cummins. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures dawid-malan.jpg Dawid Malan sweeps the ball away for four on the first day of the third Test. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures jonny-bairstow.jpg Jonny Bairstow runs between the wickets with Dawid Malan on the first day of the third Ashes test. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures dawid-malan1.jpg Dawid Malan celebrates reaching his century on the first day of the third Ashes Test. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures dawid-malan2.jpg Dawid Malan walks off the Waca field after making 140. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures steve-smith-0.jpg Steve Smith celebrates with his Australian teammates following the dismissal of Dawid Malan. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures jonny-bairstow1.jpg Jonny Bairstow celebrates reaching his century on day two of the third Test. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures jonny-bairstow2.jpg Jonny Bairstow points to the sky in memory of his late father after reaching his century. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures jonny-bairstow3.jpg Jonny Bairstow headbutts his England helmet after passing 100. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures chris-woakes.jpg Chris Woakes is dismissed by Josh Hazlewood as England's lower order is bowled out cheaply. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures craig-overton.jpg Craig Overton walks off dejectedly after being caught out for just 2. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures stuart-broad.jpg Stuart Broad edged an attempted pull shot to Cameron Bancroft at short-leg. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures david-warner.jpg David Warner walks off the field after making 22. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures cameron-bancroft.jpg Cameron Bancroft dives for the crease in an attempted run-out. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures craig-overton1.jpg Craig Overton celebrates dismissing Cameron Bancroft soon after the wicket of David Warner. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures usman-khawaja.jpg Usman Khawaja is dismissed by Chris Woakes late on day two. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures steve-smith1.jpg Steve Smith steadied the ship for Australia as he approached his century. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures moeen-ali.jpg Moeen Ali celebrates taking the only wicket of the day after dismissing Shaun Marsh Getty Ashes third Test in pictures steve-smith100.jpg Steve Smith celebrates reaching his second century of the Ashes series Getty Ashes third Test in pictures mitchell-marsh1.jpg Mitchell Marsh raises his arms in the air after reaching his maiden century Getty Ashes third Test in pictures mitchell-marsh.jpg Mitchell Marsh kisses his helmet after reaching his century on his Australia recall Getty Ashes third Test in pictures steve-smith4.jpg Steve Smith ducks out of the way of a bouncer on his way to 229 not-out on day three Getty Ashes third Test in pictures stuart-broad1.jpg Stuart Broad reacts with dejection on a frustrating day for England Getty Ashes third Test in pictures steve-smith2.jpg Steve Smith celebrates reaching his double-century to put Australia in control on day three of the third Test Getty Ashes third Test in pictures steve-smith3.jpg Steve Smith points to his family after passing 200 in the first innings Getty Ashes third Test in pictures scoreboard.jpg The scoreboard made bleak reading for England Getty Ashes third Test in pictures gettyimages-893732190.jpg Getty Ashes third Test in pictures gettyimages-893973426.jpg Getty Ashes third Test in pictures gettyimages-893990244.jpg Getty Ashes third Test in pictures trevor-bayliss-joe-root.jpg Trevor Bayliss and Joe Root inspect the pitch at the start of day five. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures jonny-bairstow4.jpg Jonny Bairstow is caught out by a ball that keeps low from Josh Hazlewood. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures nathan-lyon.jpg Nath Lyon is surrounded by his Australia teammates after dismissing Moeen Ali. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures dawid-malan4.jpg Dawid Malan celebrates reaching his half-century. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures dawid-malan3.jpg Dawid Malan top scored again for England with 54 before getting himself out. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures craig-overton3.jpg Craig Overton came out to bat despite suffering a fractured rib. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures josh-hazlewood.jpg Josh Hazlewood celebrates the dismissal of Craig Overton. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures mitchell-starc.jpg Pat Cummins celebrates dismissing Stuart Broad for a duck Getty Ashes third Test in pictures james-anderson.jpg James Anderson is struck on the head during the second innings. Getty Ashes third Test in pictures pat-cummins.jpg Pat Cummins celebrates taking the wicket of Chris Woakes to secure Australia's Ashes series victory. Getty

Meanwhile, as results headed south, players began to retreat. Flintoff, the talismanic captain freighted with the burden of leadership just when his cricketing skills were most required, was left increasingly isolated. “Relationships were becoming strained,” he remembered. “The most upsetting thing was how few people offered to help.”

Flintoff’s England had lost their moorings. Selection policy was in chaos. Chris Read and Monty Panesar both dropped, then recalled. The Melbourne Test saw Sajid Mahmood batting at No8. (He made a pair.) And seven years later, there were echoes of that same bewilderment, as England washed up at the MCG reeling from Graeme Swann’s sudden retirement, Jonathan Trott’s withdrawal, Matt Prior and Chris Tremlett’s dramatic loss of form. By the time they tossed up on Boxing Day, Cook’s XI had already seen five changes.

Once again, the squad was beginning to fracture, even if it was not always apparent. “Everyone assumes there must be a rift,” Swann snapped to the media on his retirement. “That there must be people throwing punches in the dressing room. Fortunately, it’s just not there.”

We know, with hindsight, how that turned out. On the field, England were being outclassed by an Australian side playing both the physical and mental side of the game impeccably. Just one England batsman had reached three figures, with little prospect of improvement under a frazzled coach at the end of his natural creative cycle.

So, there’s your Ashes Whitewash Bingo Card. The question is: how many numbers can we tick off this time?

Well, the good news is that this England side are still some way short of a full house. The spirit and cohesion, to take one example, is not some well-spun yarn, but a genuine product of the inclusive environment engendered by Joe Root, Trevor Bayliss and Paul Farbrace. “We’re still together as a group,” Chris Woakes insisted on Sunday. “There’s no bickering or separation. A lot of the time when you start losing, batters’ and bowlers’ camps within a dressing room are quite normal. But that’s definitely not the case.”

The Ashes through the years Show all 24 1 /24 The Ashes through the years The Ashes through the years The Ashes England and Australia have battled for the little urn for over a hundred years with countless iconic moments along the way Getty The Ashes through the years One of England's first heroes was Sydney Barnes who starred as the series' were evenly contested until the First World War Hulton Archive The Ashes through the years England won only one Test out of 15 from the end of the war until 1925 with Herbert Sutcliffe one of few standouts Hulton Archive The Ashes through the years Post-war the great Don Bradman put England to the sword time and again scoring 974 runs in a single series in 1930 Hulton Archive The Ashes through the years In 1956 Jim Laker produced the bowling display of a lifetime taking 19 of the possible 20 Australian wickets in an England victory at Old Trafford Hulton Archive The Ashes through the years England's dominance was short-lived with Richie Benaud skippering Australia to a dominant series win in 1959 Hulton Archive The Ashes through the years Geoffrey Boycott entered the fray in the 1970s and was never too far away from the headlines Hulton Archive The Ashes through the years Ray Illingworth guided England to success in Australia in the 1970/71 series Hulton Archive The Ashes through the years Allan Border's relentless will to win kickstarted an extended period of success for Australia in the eighties Getty The Ashes through the years Ian Botham's match-winning heroics at Headingley in 1981 remain one of the rivalry's most memorable and iconic moments Getty The Ashes through the years Steve Waugh was one of the stars as Australia ruthlessly seized control of the Ashes in the 1990s Getty The Ashes through the years Shane Warne exploded on to the scene in 1993 with the 'ball of the century' and would go on to torment England for years to come AFP The Ashes through the years Glenn McGrath played an integral part in the Australian dominance establishing himself as the pre-eminent seam bowler of his generation Getty The Ashes through the years The tide turned in 2005 with Steve Harmison's last-gasp wicket at Edgbaston proving vital to a famous recapturing of the urn Getty The Ashes through the years The 2005 series is widely-regarded as the greatest of them all Getty The Ashes through the years England came crashing back to earth in 2007 with Australia handing them an infamous whitewash before McGrath, Warne and Justin Langer all called it a day in Sydney Getty The Ashes through the years James Anderson and Monty Panesar's stout rearguard action in 2009 was key as England regained the Ashes Getty The Ashes through the years Alastair Cook was England's hero in 2011 with 766 runs and three centuries including an imperious 235* in Brisbane Getty The Ashes through the years Graeme Swann was outstanding with the ball too as England won the series 3-1 Getty The Ashes through the years Ian Bell top scored in the summer of 2013 as England kept the urn Getty The Ashes through the years Mitchell Johnson produced the form of his life to obliterate England in 2013/14 in a second whitewash in five series Getty The Ashes through the years Stuart Broad's memorable 8 for 15 at Trent Bridge saw Australia dismissed for 60 in one of the great fast bowling spells Getty The Ashes through the years Steve Smith starred as Australia bulldozed England in 2017/18 Getty Images The Ashes through the years Joe Root and Tim Paine captain the sides this time around Getty Images

The selection policy seems more settled, too, at least in the short term. Were it not for Craig Overton’s rib injury, England would probably have been unchanged for the third Test running. James Vince and Mark Stoneman’s half-centuries have earned them one more chance at least. Plenty of dangling question marks remain - Cook, James Anderson, Stuart Broad, Moeen Ali - but they can mostly be deferred for now.

Perhaps most crucially, their opposition are still not quite worthy of being bracketed with their great forebears. Tim Paine is no Adam Gilchrist. Cameron Bancroft is no Chris Rogers. And even if Australia’s three pace bowlers have collectively managed to approximate the chilling, game-breaking potency that Mitchell Johnson provided on his own in 2013-14, England have already passed 300 as many times as they did four years ago (twice: an extremely low bar, admittedly).

The absence of Mitchell Starc with a heel injury is a blow, however creatively the Australians have tried to dress it up. Jackson Bird is a fine Shield bowler who generates bounce and swing from his 6ft 5in height, but gives away a good 10kph to Starc and is a genuine No11 batsman. There is a reason he has played just eight Tests in five years.

Some hope for England, then. But now the bad news: there are certain respects in which this tour is beginning to look eerily familiar. Alcohol mischief: check. A captain struggling for form and looking isolated in the field: check. Batsmen getting starts but failing to make centuries: check. World-class performers playing well below their peak: check. A coach whose virtues are now beginning to look a lot like flaws: check.

Most of all it is the collective absence of perspective, the insistence that their problems are just a tweak or two from being fixed entirely, that is most redolent of England tours past. Obviously, all teams have to talk themselves up, for their own benefit if nobody else’s. But a recurring theme has been the idea that England simply have to perform more consistently for longer periods, without ever unpacking what that entails in practice.

“If you’ve made a fifty,” as Bayliss put it in Adelaide with regard to the lack of centuries, “you’ve just got to do it again.” Perhaps Bayliss was being wilfully glib. But surely he will know that at the highest level of sport, repeatability of a skill is a skill in its own right: a function of concentration, mentality, confidence. There comes a point when a side that persistently loses the plot in the field and fails to convert batting starts has legitimate questions to answer about its mental resilience: not so much a lack of effort, but a lack of basic attentiveness.

Root and Bayliss have come under criticism after losing the Ashes tour by the fourth Test (Getty)

The collapse of England’s bowling attack on day three at Perth was no anomaly. In the last 18 months it has happened against Pakistan at The Oval, the West Indies at Headingley, India all over India. And it is worth speculating whether a side that needs to keep rebooting, keep restarting, keep trying new things, is displaying a surfeit of imagination, or merely a deficit of concentration. Until England truly grasp hold of the issue, they risk evoking the words of former Middlesbrough manager Bryan Robson: “If we played like that every week, we wouldn’t be so inconsistent.”

What of the MCG itself? For all the ritzy memories of Australia’s 98 all out in 2010, the Boxing Day Test has more commonly produced plenty of runs. The last three years have seen first-innings totals of 530, 465, 551-3, 271, 443-9 and 624-8, and with hot weather forecast, the pitch may just break up enough to tempt England into giving Mason Crane a Test debut. But Tom Curran remains the likeliest replacement for Overton, providing England with the 83mph right-arm seam bowling option they have so desperately been lacking in this series.

Woakes was asked about the possibility of sideways movement. “Probably not!” he scoffed. “It looks a good batting surface. A batting paradise.”

And so once again, England will be faced with the familiar problem of taking 20 Australian wickets. This may sound counter-intuitive after their Perth travails, but it is not beyond them. Things will need to start going right early on. Use the new ball wisely. Space out the short stuff. Find that awkward, in-between, Glenn McGrath length and pound it mercilessly. Topple Steve Smith cheaply and build pressure on the rest of Australian batting line-up. Be patient. Hold your catches.