Houston, which seemed poised a few years ago to quickly take over Chicago’s position as the third-largest city in the United States, has hit a snag with fewer people moving here, according to newly released Census figures.

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that H-Town added just over 8,000 residents for the year ending in July 2017, a sluggish pace of growth that was exceeded in raw numbers by Austin, Fort Worth, Dallas and San Antonio. The figures do not account for the impact of Hurricane Harvey, which is believed to have prompted thousands of students to leave the Houston area.

Some find the slowdown in regional population gains baffling.

“I’m trying to answer that question myself,” said Lloyd Potter, demographer for the Texas State Data Center.

The slowdown has also stumped city officials, who had projected Houston would pick up more than 30,000 new residents. They plan to appeal the estimates, which can have a negative impact on city finances.

“Under federal rules, we will challenge the Census Bureau’s estimate, which falls below the estimate by our Planning and Development Department,” Mayor Sylvester Turner said in a statement. “An accurate count of the residents of our growing city will guarantee a proper funding cushion for local government operations.”

From 2011 to 2015, Houston ranked among the top three cities for annual numeric growth along with Los Angeles and New York City, according to Census data. Most of that growth came from people relocating to Houston.

The city, which has more than 2.3 million residents, gained more than 30,000 new residents a year from 2011 to 2015.

Now the Bayou City — known for its sprawl and elastic economy — has seen population growth slow down, a trend that began in 2016 amid the oil industry downtown.

Potter said the shift is perplexing, but not necessarily detrimental, to the city’s future.

“Slowing down can be OK,” Potter said. “When you have 2 to 3 percent growth — that’s pretty healthy. If you have something like 5 to 6 (percent growth) — that can be a real challenge.”

Excessive growth places a strain on a city’s infrastructure, he said. And the slowdown could ease pressures on often-overwhelmed city services.

“Houston has been struggling for a long time with traffic,” he said. “Typically, growth outpaces infrastructure and it takes a while for infrastructure to catch up.”

Expansion to the West

In contrast to Houston’s unusual slump, Fort Worth and San Antonio surged in 2017.

Fort Worth surpassed Indianapolis to become the 15th-largest city in the nation, with a population of 874,000.

San Antonio topped the national list for raw numeric growth in population among all U.S. cities of 50,000 residents or more.

That city gained 24,208 residents during the year ending July 1, 2017. That adds up to an average of 66 people per day. Meanwhile the San Antonio population went above 1.5 million for the first time. The growth spurt from 2016 to 2017 also exceeded strong estimated population gains in Phoenix, Dallas, Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Seattle, Atlanta and Austin.

“I think in some ways, it will potentially begin to help others in the country see that San Antonio isn’t a sleepy little city in South Texas,” Potter said. “So in some ways, this may kind of help put an exclamation point on that and help people see that San Antonio is a powerhouse city.”

It’s unclear where Houston is headed — or why growth has appeared to begin to plateau.

The figures don’t include granular data that show what’s driving potential Houstonians away.

Rebounding growth

One possibility could be the availability of jobs, Potter said. The economy is a big factor in reasons why people move, according to a recent Census report.

An economic report released in March by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas says the collapse of oil prices at the end of 2014 triggered a mild recession in Houston from 2015 to 2016.

By early 2017, Houston’s unemployment had climbed to 5.8 percent — up from 4.8 percent in January 2016.

But with oil prices restored, Houston’s economy has rebounded.

The Fed reported in April that economic indicators suggest healthy growth in activity in the region. The report said the existing home market remained tight and that construction employment had been boosted by post-Harvey demand.

And Houston, though growing at a slower pace, is still on its way to surpass Chicago. The Windy City lost more than 3,800 residents for the year ending July 1, 2017, recording its third consecutive year of population loss.

“Who knows what will happen next year?” Potter said. “That’s the thing about this data — one year you’re on top and the next year you’re on bottom. Right now, Houston is in an unusual spot.”

john.harden@chron.com

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