EMERGING markets have given the global economy most of its muscle since the recession ended in 2009. But in 2016 rich countries will account for their largest share of global growth this decade. The BRICs are in a sorry state. Brazil’s government has been both incompetent and corrupt. Russia’s has been no better, with a dose of military malevolence thrown in. China will perform reasonably well in 2016—if you believe the government’s numbers. By that reckoning, its GDP will rise by around 6.5%. The reality almost certainly will be lower. China is mired in debt and has mismanaged its currency and stockmarkets, sending shocks through the global economy. India looks perkier: it will grow by more than 7%. But that is worse than its average of 8.5% growth between 2005 and 2010. All said, the BRICs will make up only 16% of worldwide growth in 2016.

Against all this, the rich world will look solid, if unspectacular. America’s economy will expand by around 2.5%, and the American jobs machine will crank out at least 2m new positions for a sixth straight year—the first time that has happened since the 1990s. Europe will no longer be threatened by recession or deflation, and the euro zone’s most obvious time-bomb, Greece, has been defused for now.

The world economy as a whole is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2016, and it hasn’t managed an increase of more than 3% since 2011. Save for America, 2016 will be another year of repair, recovery, reform and risk for most countries.