The Dalai Lama's announcement that he could retire within six months may do more to confuse than enlighten listeners because of his overlapping religious and political roles.

He has described himself as "semi-retired" and, as unrest rippled through Tibetan areas in 2008, threatened to resign as leader of the administration-in-exile if violence continued.

Might he go further than giving up that position one day? Perhaps. Two years ago, Der Spiegel, the German news magazine, asked him whether it was possible to resign as Dalai Lama, given that Tibetans believe him to be the latest reincarnation in a long line of religious leaders. He told them he would "no longer play a political role or a pronounced spiritual role".

Some would like to see the Karmapa Lama, 26, succeed him as the figurehead of Tibetan exiles. Others believe it is time for a more fundamental change. Earlier this year, the prime minister of the government-in-exile told the Guardian: "The age of the old monks is passing and we are looking forward to a young, energetic, lay leadership."

The Dalai Lama has blurred the issues of succession and reincarnation. Asked if he would be the last, he told Der Spiegel: "The key factor should be the will of the Tibetan people ... Everything is possible: a conclave, like in the Catholic church, a woman as my successor, no Dalai Lama anymore, or perhaps even two, since the Communist party has, astonishingly enough, given itself the right to be responsible for reincarnations."

That was a reference to the controversy surrounding the reincarnation of the Panchen Lama, the second-highest monk in Tibetan Buddhism. The Dalai Lama identified six-year-old Gedhun Choekyi Nyima as the 11th Panchen Lama in 1995, but Beijing announced that a search committee had selected another boy, Gyancain Norbu.

Gedhun Choekyi Nyima has not been seen since; human rights groups have described him as the world's youngest political prisoner. Tibet's governor said earlier this year that he and his family were "living a very good life" and were reluctant to be disturbed.

The Dalai Lama is considering ways of averting that kind of crisis, possibly through the unprecedented step of seeking his own reincarnation. He told Der Spiegel: "I was unanimously asked to take part in choosing my successor and to keep the institution alive. But I hope that there is still plenty of time, and that I will have another 10 or even 20 years to think about things. Of course, if we are still in exile then, my successor will presumably have to be found somewhere in India, certainly outside Tibet."