Over the past week or so I have become frustrated with the use and abuse of opinion polls in relation to the Tory leadership race. The poll which suggested that Boris Johnson could lead the party to a majority of 140 caused me to say that “any MP who believes that the Tory party will win an election based on polls using hypothetical questions about the unknown future clearly doesn’t understand opinion polls.”

I am told that Sir Lynton Crosby (a longstanding friend and I hope he remains such) had been telling Tory MPs that these polls showed just such sunlit uplands awaited them. Lynton either doesn’t understand polls (highly unlikely) or he is selling snake oil and a particular candidate.

All the polls proving