(I did the reflection on a section to section basis)

Population Stress

Young people will face a lack of economic opportunity as trade contracts. Countries with large amounts of young people will see continual population growth for decades, while countries with stable or declining populations will see aging populations, and therefore a smaller number of youthful workers. Either extreme is bad, we need younger people to do the jobs that we need done, and we need to control population growth to ensure a certain quality of life for the current citizens.

With continual growth, there will be enough new jobs to keep up with the population growth and other factors. When growth stops, there will be much more competition for jobs, and money. The rich will try to hold onto their money(or use it to ensure they can get a bigger piece of the shrinking pie) , while the poor find it even harder to make a living.

The Default Scenario

If we continue on our current track, the future doesn’t look too bright. Unemployment will remain high in the US, causing tax revenues to be low; this will cause drastic budget cuts. Central banks and some national governments will be compelled to give more bailouts. The global economy will be trillions of dollars in debt that cannot be payed back. If our policy makers continue to try to create growth, then they will simply create more debt.

As the US tries to expand its role in the economy, it will likely involve a greater reliance on the military for solutions to international problems. To start it off, cutting military spending would create even more unemployment, which we don’t want in our already bad economy. More frequent international conflicts caused by trade, currency, or resources could cause a country to invest more into weapons development.

Economic productivity will decline and the costs of long-distance trade will rise as energy becomes less and less affordable. Systems that depends on the expectation of growth, such as certain financial systems, will fail. A new, smaller economy would emerge after; one with a GDP similar to what we had 100 years ago.

Post-Growth Money

We used to base our money on precious metals, until we realized that it did not fit our needs. Since then we switched to a debt based currency system; one that can only thrive in an expanding economy, due to the requirement for interest payments. Assuming that growth won’t continue forever, we will need to adopt a new currency system at some point in the future.

One way is for governments to create their own debt free money. Banks would have a 100 % reserve requirement, which would get them out of the business of creating money by giving out more debt. Government could award new entrants into the economy with a lump sum of money, and lend money at zero percent interest for socially worthwhile projects.

There have already been ‘new’ currencies around the world. In Ithaca, NY, they use paper notes representing anything from a number of hours worked, to quantities of food in storage. In the Berkshire region of Massachusetts, BerkShares are traded; they are available at five banks, where 95 Federal Reserve dollars can be traded for 100 BerkShares and then used to purchase goods and services on a one to one basis.

One interesting scenario that this brings to my mind, is the movie ‘In Time’. I never saw the movie, but the previews described a dystopian world where people stop aging at 25; the amount of money they get working is turned into a certain amount of hours that will keep the person alive, when they run out of time they die. The richest people can essentially live forever. This made me think of what it would be like to have an ‘hours worked’, trading system. Higher skilled jobs would get a bonus that would correspond to the hours they spent learning that high skilled job. While of course it would be insanely hard to switch to a system like this, it would take away inequality(because everyones time would be worth the same amount of money), it would encourage working(because time is money), and it would prevent people from hogging all of the money in the world. A downside is that it would be impossible to make money when you are not working, like investments, or being the owner of a business. However, set up correctly, we could make it work. A government run retirement system would cover people when they get too old to work, or unable to work, and the government could also set up some incentives for certain jobs that it really needs.

Our Problems Are Resolvable In Principle

If we are willing to change our world for the better, we can fix our problems. The problem is that society as a whole is not inclined to do what is necessary, I would say that we afraid of drastic change. If we eradicate poverty, conserve our depleting resources, reform our food system, raise energy efficiency and develop more and more renewable energies we can fix our problems; not the easiest tasks in the world. If we deliberately reduce oil extraction rates now, we can reduce the competition for the shrinking supply, and start the inevitable transition to renewable energy sources.

Some have made the claim that all of our problems are basically caused by our evolution. We evolved in nature, having to hunt and gather for food. Being in the here and now would keep you alive, thinking about the future would probably just get you killed. This means that it is harder for us to look into the future and solve problems that are yet to come. We like to think that we are so advanced and special, but we know nothing of what intelligent life can do outside of our human experience. Humans could be at a very early stage in intelligence, or just a doomed species that tried to run before it could crawl. I’d like to think that is not the case, and that we can learn to keep our futures in mind more and more; we’re still learning.