South Florida rapper Lil Pump is having a breakout year, landing his single “Gucci Gang” on the Billboard Hot 100 and collaborating with artists like 2 Chainz, Rick Ross, and Gucci Mane on his self-titled project that he dropped on Friday. Now, he could be poised for a Billboard chart upset.

New projections from HitsDailyDouble show Pump neck-and-neck with Michigan rapper NF for the No. 1 album in the country. Currently, HDD predicts that NF will move 38,000 – 42,000 copies of Perception, while Pump is likely to move 35,000 to 40,000 copies of his debut. Country singer Kane Brown is also in the mix, potentially moving up to 38,000 copies of the deluxe edition of his self-titled debut album, while holdovers like Post Malone’s Stoney, Lil Uzi Vert’s Luv is Rage 2, and Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers‘ Greatest Hits could all make an impact as well.

HDD projections are rarely exact—last week they projected 55,000 in sales for A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie’s The Bigger Artist, which actually moved 67,000 copies—and the lack of new releases from major artists is obviously a factor, too. However, the fact that Pump is even in striking distance of a No. 1 album should be enough to surprise people. Although he came up alongside fellow South Florida rappers like XXXTENTACION and Ski Mask The Slump God, he’s not usually regarded with the same level of seriousness as his contemporaries.

Lil Pump has performed surprisingly well on Genius, too. Previously unreleased songs from the project have earned between 5,000 and 20,000 pageviews, while his hits like “Gucci Gang,” “D Rose,” and “Flex Like Ouu” all sit at over 250,000 total pageviews. Whether he scores a No. 1 album remains to be seen, but Pump has clearly come further than his detractors ever expected.

Read all the lyrics to Lil Pump’s self-titled project on Genius now.