CALGARY—About a quarter of Albertans would vote to leave Canada, according to a new poll — but Quebec is still slightly ahead when it comes to separatist sentiment.

The Abacus Data study released Tuesday found just 14 per cent of Canadians coast-to-coast would vote for their province to leave Confederation. However, that figure includes 25 per cent of Albertans and 18 per cent of Saskatchewanians. In Quebec, the number is closer to 28 per cent.

David Coletto, CEO and co-founder of Abacus Data, said regionalism has always been a part of Canada’s political realities and said the poll’s findings would not threaten national unity.

“The threat of Quebec separatism is fairly low, and although one in four Albertans would vote to leave Canada, it is not at a level to cause serious concern.”

Despite long histories of butting heads with Ottawa, the Abacus Data poll found separatists in Quebec and Western Canada have very different political values.

According to the poll’s findings, the majority of Quebec separatists believe climate change is a crisis that requires immediate action, agree that immigrants strengthen Canada, and maintain government regulation of business is needed to protect the public interest. By contrast, western Canadian separatists overwhelmingly disagreed with all three of those positions.

Bruce Anderson, chair of Abacus Data, stressed that Alberta separatism is very much a minority view in the province. He said most Albertans don’t support it — including most of those who voted for Premier Jason Kenney’s United Conservative Party in April’s provincial election and who intend to vote for Conservative party Leader Andrew Scheer in October’s federal election.

“There are political hazards in stoking resentment: while a minority of Alberta conservatives cheer talk about separation; for most, it’s a project they reject,” he said in a statement.

Abacus Data’s findings come after months of criticism by Kenney and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe over the federal government’s handling of environmental regulations and economic development in Western Canada. In March, Kenney said he would hold a referendum in fall 2021 on equalization payments if no coastal pipeline had been built by then and if Bill C-69 had not been repealed.

Quebec separatism has been a persistent feature of the province’s politics since the 1960s, prompting two major referendums on separation in 1980 and 1995. Yet a poll done last October by Angus Reid, in conjunction with CBC, found 82 per cent of Quebec respondents agreed they should remain in Canada.

Atlantic Canada, British Columbia, and Ontario are the top three supporters of federalism in Canada. Younger Canadians tend to be the most enthusiastic supporters of Canada, the poll found, with separatist opinions more popular among those 60 and older.

It’s worth noting only a handful of Canadians — about 8 per cent — would vote to join the United States. Around 17 per cent of Albertans would vote to join the U.S., while less than 6 per cent of Ontario’s, Quebec’s, or Atlantic Canada’s populations would do so.

“As for joining the U.S., people may see the U.S. as having virtues — but they see more here,” Anderson said.

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Abacus Data surveyed 1,500 Canadian adults online between July 12 and July 17. A random sample of panellists was also invited to complete the poll from a set of similar panels on Lucid, a U.S.-based research and polling website.

The margin of error is plus-or-minus 2.6 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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