A train thought to belong to Kim Jong-un has been spotted at his compound in a resort town on the country’s east coast, according to satellite images, amid conflicting reports about the North Korean leader’s health and whereabouts.

Images reviewed by 38 North, a Washington-based North Korea monitoring project 38, showed that the train had been parked at the “leadership station” in Wonsan since at least 21 April.

Citing an analysis of recent satellite photos of the area, 38 North said the 250m-long train was not present on 15 April but was seen on both 21 and 23 April. The site said the train appeared to have been repositioned for departure on the latter date, but added that there had been no indication of when it might leave. The station is reserved for the use of the Kim family, it added.

“The train’s presence does not prove the whereabouts of the North Korean leader or indicate anything about his health but it does lend weight to reports that Kim is staying at an elite area on the country’s eastern coast,” the 38 North report said.

Speculation about Kim’s health grew quickly following his absence from the anniversary of the birthday of North Korea’s founding father and Kim’s grandfather, Kim Il-sung, on 15 April. On Saturday, Kim missed another national holiday, North Korea’s Military Foundation Day, further fuelling speculation about his health.

According to a report in Newsweek, US intelligence has seen no sign of unusual military activity in the country but are continuing to monitor the situation closely.

Newsweek quoted a senior unnamed Pentagon official as saying: “We have observed no indications or received any additional information to make a conclusive assessment on the status of North Korean leadership or health of Kim Jong-un.”

But the official went on to say the presence of the train in Wonsan and Kim’s absence from recent events lent credibility to reports that he was ill. Kim’s status meant North Korea could conceivably delay announcing his death to ensure security measures were in place, the official said.

North Korea’s state media last reported on Kim’s whereabouts when he presided over a meeting of the ruling party’s politburo on 11 April.

Kim Jong-un at his last public appearance on 11 April. Photograph: KCNA/EPA

On Friday, Reuters reported that had China dispatched a team of medical experts and officials to North Korea to advise on Kim.

South Korea’s government has dismissed reports that Kim is seriously ill, saying last week that he appeared to be handling state affairs normally and that there had been no suspicious activities, such as an emergency readiness order issued by the North’s military or the ruling Workers’ party.

Some South Korean media outlets, citing unidentified government officials, have reported that Kim was staying at Wonsan, located about 200km east of the capital, Pyongyang. The broadcaster TBS said last Thursday that Kim had been in the resort for the previous four days and would soon make a reappearance.

North Korea’s state media has not commented on Kim’s health or offered clues as to his whereabouts. On Sunday, state radio said he had sent a message of thanks to building workers in a northern border town but did not say when or offer any other details, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.

Kim’s two-week absence from public life has sparked speculation among North Korean defectors living in the South.

According to the Korea Times, Ji Seong-ho, a defector who won a seat in last week’s national assembly elections in the South, claimed a source inside North Korea had confirmed to him that Kim was “seriously ill” and that the country was in the grip of a succession struggle.

But Thae Yong-ho, the most senior North Korean diplomat to have defected, said it was impossible to speculate about the state of Kim’s health.

Thae, a former North Korean deputy ambassador to the UK who also won a national assembly seat, said: “The supreme leader’s whereabouts are protected with intense secrecy, so very few people know these details. Considering the gravity of the situation, it is impossible for news of his poor health to spread to the border with China.”

Kim, who came to power after the death in 2011 of his father, Kim Jong-il, has no clear successor, and a prolonged power vacuum is certain to raise international concerns about the security of the country’s nuclear arsenal.

Kim’s younger sister, Kim Yo-jong, has recently emerged as a powerful force within the regime, while other possible candidates include premier Kim Jae-ryong, who conducted a number of site visits around the country on Friday.

Donald Trump has played down reports that Kim is ill. “I think the report was incorrect,” Trump told reporters on Friday, but declined to say if he had been in contact with North Korean officials.

Trump has met his “friend” Kim three times in an attempt to persuade him to abandon his nuclear weapons. Under Kim, North Korea has developed missiles capable of reaching the US mainland, but denuclearisation talks remain deadlocked.

Reporting from inside North Korea is notoriously difficult because of tight controls on information. A Trump administration official said days of North Korean media silence on Kim’s whereabouts had heightened concerns about his condition.

On Monday, Daily NK, a Seoul-based website that reports on North Korea, cited one unnamed source in North Korea as saying that Kim had undergone heart surgery in the resort county of Hyangsan, north of Pyongyang, on 12 April.

Kim, believed to be 36, has disappeared from coverage in North Korean state media before. In 2014, he vanished for more than a month amid rumours about his heath. North Korean state TV later showed him walking with a limp.

Speculation about Kim’s health has been fuelled by his heavy smoking and weight gain since taking power. His family also has a history of cardiovascular problems.

Who might succeed Kim?

If Kim Jong-un dies or is incapacitated, the North Korean regime would have little time to prepare for a smooth transition of power. But who might replace him?

Kim Yo-jong

The most obvious candidate is Kim’s younger sister, Kim Yo-jong, who has been his most trusted confidante over the past year, accompanying him to nuclear summits and advising him on his image, both at home and during his diplomatic engagement with the US and South Korea.

Yo-jong would become the fourth member of her family to rule North Korea, part of a powerful cult of personality built around the family’s mythical Mount Paektu bloodline – a reference to the country’s highest, and most revered, mountain.

But some experts have said military and party elites could oppose the appointment of a woman as supreme leader, given the country’s strong patriarchal principles.

Choe Ryong-hae

An alternative scenario would be a collective leadership, possibly with Yo-jong as a figurehead at the outset, but stripped of the absolute power enjoyed by her brother, father and grandfather.



A collective leadership would most likely be led by Choe Ryong-hae, North Korea’s ceremonial head of state and the country’s official second-in-command.



Choe, however, is not a member of the Kim family, so his elevation could prompt questions over his legitimacy and trigger a power struggle, plunging the country into chaos.



Kim Pyong-il

Another candidate is Kim Pyong-il, Kim Jong-il’s 65-year-old half-brother, who spent decades in Europe as a diplomat and whose age and experience could make him more acceptable to other senior officials.

• This article was amended on 4 May 2020 to remove a reference to Kim Yo-jong possibly becoming the “fourth generation” of her family to rule North Korea; she would be the fourth family member.