Jan 15, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (13) dribbles the ball while Washington Wizards forward Kelly Oubre Jr. (12) defends in the second half of the game at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Washington Wizards beat the Indiana Pacers 118-104. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Washington Wizards’ Oubre Could Be The Next George

If we’re being totally honest, the night the Washington Wizards traded up four spots in the draft to nab Kelly Oubre, Jr., a freshman out of Kansas, made June feel as cold as it ever has.

Rather than stay at 19th and select either Bobby Portis (sorely needed stretch 4) or Jerian Grant (the perfect long-term backup to John Wall and a much-heralded college player), Washington sacrificed two future 2nd round picks and rolled the dice on a lottery talent who simply couldn’t put together consistently under Bill Self in Lawrence.

I was fairly upset, and probably took to Twitter, this website, and my secret diary over the next few months fuming at another draft fail by notorious draft failure Ernie Grunfeld.

Oubre was a project that would never develop, especially not on the timeline this team needed to take the next stop, I thought.

Maybe it was his shoes, or his haircut, or his carefree demeanor, or in reality a combination of all three that put me in a ‘Get off My Lawn’ mode. But I just felt like I was staring at Nick Young 2.0, right down to the probability of one day dating an Australian pop star with the potential to be exposed for wrongdoings on TMZ.

I noticed the picture Kevin Durant threw up on Instagram with him and Oubre battling during a summer camp and figured Grunfeld took one look at social media and made the selection for that reason.

If KD gives his stamp of approval, that’s good enough for Washington after all (remember that in 5 months when we’re employing Troy Weaver, Scott Brooks, Kevin Ollie, Derek Fisher, Thabo Sefalosha, Kyle Singler, and Wanda Pratt – but not Durant).

So with all that initial agitation over Oubre, it was hard for me to expect myself to come around the kid any time soon. The Washington Wizards were poised to be make a deep run in the East and he was undoubtedly going to be buried on the bench by player development extraordinaire Randy Wittman.

The former couldn’t have been further from eventual reality, but the latter was the easiest prediction of the season. Nonetheless, with all the cards stacked against my relationship with Kelly Oubre, here I am writing this article. The premise of which is, are we seeing the next Paul George?

Before you destroy this thought exercise, understand this: predicting any ceiling for Oubre is like taking a newly minted start up with two weeks’ worth of sales in front of venture capital investors and telling them you own the next Facebook. It’s a shot in the dark but one that’s hopefully done with the slightest of forecasting ability.

That being said, is it so far-fetched to assume he at least shows some similarities?

If Oubre ends up becoming a top 10-15 player in the league (George’s current position), color me surprised. But can he turn into a two-way beast capable of initiating offense on one end and locking down the best perimeter threat on the other? There’s certainly a possibility.

Both players were mid-1st round picks, capable of greater things than their respective draft positions indicated. Each faced concerns about their play and possibly their character causing a slide that could’ve created some extra motivation necessary to get that much better.

In terms of their entry into the basketball prominence, Oubre was a much higher ranked prospect coming out of high school but it was George who shot up draft boards after returning to Fresno St. for a sophomore season.

To compare their NBA profiles, I took a look at some notes from each player’s DraftExpress scouting report.

Paul George:

“The first thing that pops off the page when looking at George’s numbers is his high turnover percentage. The Fresno State product coughed the ball up on some 18.8% of his total possessions. Obviously, his ball-handling ability will be something that he needs to refine in order to reach his potential as a player.”



Kelly Oubre:



“As a shot-creator, Oubre is very much a work in progress still. His ball-handling skills are rudimentary, almost entirely confined to his stronger (left) hand, and with a fairly high dribble that slows him down off the bounce and neutralizes his excellent natural tools to a certain extent.”

Paul George:

“As a defender, George has all the tools to be very solid on this side of the ball, but hasn’t fully put it all together just yet. He comes out of his stance too often and is unaware at times of his opponent’s strengths – backing off of a shooter or caroling a driver, suggesting he needs to pay more attention to scouting reports. Despite that, his length, anticipatory skills and quick hands have made George one of the nation’s leaders in steals, collecting over 2 a game.”



Kelly Oubre:



“The place where he’ll be able to put those tools to use most prominently early in his NBA career should be on the defensive end, where he is far from a finished product, but shows terrific potential as a wing stopper. Oubre moves his feet exceptionally well for his size and has the length to contain pretty much any type of backcourt player. He can put terrific pressure on the ball and has excellent instincts for getting in the passing lanes.”

I certainly picked and chose quotes that strengthened my case and there was separation in that initial analysis. George came into the league as a superior athlete, whereas Oubre had the more refined jump shot and a style that favored smoothness over power.

However, it easy to see where their games align.

Both entered the league with the promise, but not always the dedication on the defensive end. Since then, George has morphed into one of the very best perimeter defenders in the league, while Oubre might already be the top option on the Wizards.

While George posted better numbers in terms of pretty much every defensive metric, he was also playing on a team that featured Roy Hibbert in the middle patrolling the paint before he became fossilized.

George struggled mightily his first few years in the league navigating the pick-and-roll as the primary ball handler, often times trying to split the defense, resulting in a turnover rate that wasn’t warranted at his level of usage.

He has since cut down on that problem significantly (for example, he used 17.8% of plays his rookie year, turning the ball over on 13.7% of his possessions.

This season, he used 30.4% of plays but managed to drop that turnover rate by a tenth).

Oubre, as mentioned in the report, has a similar issue dribbling around defenders. Right now he’s too high off the ground, not allowing him to quickly cross from right to left and get to the cup with his natural hand.

However, that problem should subside as he puts in more work on his ball handling. While he may never have the same type of burst as George, he has shown the ability to work angles when attacking the rim, something that should improve with a tighter handle.

After a slow start from behind the arc his rookie season, George really picked up the frequency and accuracy of his 3 point shot. He attempted 138 3s in Year 1, connecting on just 29.7% of them. By Year 4, he was up to 500 attempts and nearly 37% accuracy.

This is one area where Oubre is a step ahead. Although he only managed to get up 78 3s this season, he did connect on 32.1% and had he not taken several forced shots in the sparse minutes he was on the floor, those numbers could have gone up.

In the 9 games he started, he shot 11/21 from deep, which is probably a better indication of how he might do moving forward when playing with non-replacement level players.

George was universally better from everywhere else on the court and for Oubre to really become that type of scorer, he has to convert at higher rates at the basket, from mid-range and at the charity stripe (see: Butler, Jimmy).

Overall the statistical comparison is a tough sell between the two players but I believe that’s largely due to circumstance.

George started 19 times and averaged nearly 21 minutes per game, which is double what Oubre sees on a nightly basis.

Their 36-minute comparisons are within the ballpark, as George averaged 14-6-2 on 45/30/76 shooting, while Oubre is at 13-7-1 on 43/32/66 splits.

George did managed to get 5 more starts in the playoffs vs. a loaded Bulls team (Derrick Rose’s MVP year) that provided great experience.

While Oubre won’t get that chance this year, it is safe to assume the Washington Wizards will be back in the mix next year with the 2nd year product playing a much larger role than he has this season under a new coach and (fingers very tightly crossed) new management.

The case has been made for Kelly Oubre to become the next Paul George. And while it doesn’t have to be an exact copy, it’s important for him to realize his potential on both sides of the ball to develop his game the way guys like George, Butler, Kawhi Leonard, and Klay Thompson have done as full court stars.

The Wizards will be crowded at the swingman position, with Bradley Beal expected to be back alongside Otto Porter and at least 1-2 free agents added to the mix. However, as Ben noted last week, Oubre’s development should not be overlooked because he could be the best hope at future blue chip talent for a team unlikely to be drafting near the top of the league for the foreseeable future.

I once used to be his biggest doubter. Count me as a believer now, but for real he has to get rid of those shoes.

For an extended look at the comparison between the two players’ rookie years (as well as the source for most of the statistics used above), check out this page on baskeball-reference.com