UPDATE 1 some people are positing another attempt to gain Republican control — read this piece in The New Republic. I think it highly improbable. Again, I think the Republican electorate is going to split.

UPDATE 2 this might explain a bit why the Access Hollywood video was the straw that broke that camel’s back:

x A number of Republican men learned through female staffers and spouses just how problematic the Trump tape was.https://t.co/XrgMhFRZtH pic.twitter.com/gm0b2XaGeE Ã¢ÂÂ Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) October 9, 2016

and then there is this:

x Exclusive: Former RNC chair @MichaelSteele tells @DavidcornDC it is game over for Trump and GOP. https://t.co/uzsnBt9BK1 Ã¢ÂÂ Clara Jeffery (@ClaraJeffery) October 8, 2016

UPDATE 3 — expect a lot more coming out. One anti-Trump Republican operative talked about two forthcoming things, one of which they say is worse than Access Hollywood tape.

Then in a slightly different way:

x NEW: Trump once offered to show attorney Gloria Allred his genitals https://t.co/0HImjkoWgB pic.twitter.com/H7pi50fwiV Ã¢ÂÂ Colin Jones (@colinjones) October 8, 2016

Final thought for this update — could it be that source for David Farenthold on Access Hollywood is an anti-Trump Republican? In fact, could it not be possible that the end result of the never Trump movement was finally putting together the kind of oppo that could have been used to knock out Trump in the primaries? This is speculation, but I wonder . . .

UPDATE 4 on CNN just now (9:37) they announced Rob Portman has pulled his endorsement of Trump.

UPDATE 5 okay some conflict in reporting. I started with the WSJ story which says that Reince has already directed resources away. Jamie Gangel on CNN said there are discussions about terminating the joint fundraising relationship with Trump. Now depending upon whom the different reporters talked there may be no conflict.

The political director of CNN said that if they got Trump off the ballot and replaced him with Pence, it would be conceding the presidency, because he could not win, and that Pence would be being the good soldier to try to hold the troops together for down-ballot.

UPDATE 6 “The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll went into the field this morning, and we'll have numbers tomorrow morning showing the initial impact of the video on the Trump/Pence ticket.” Now that should be interesting . . . looking forward to it.

UPDATE 7 for an overview of current polling, take a look at this tweet:

x POLLS 10/8 5PM

Ã¢ÂÂ NOLA: CLINTON +10

Ã¢ÂÂ QUIN: CLINTON +6

Ã¢ÂÂ PRRI: CLINTON +6

Ã¢ÂÂ REUT: CLINTON +7

Ã¢ÂÂ FDUP: C+9

Ã¢ÂÂ CBS: C+6

Ã¢ÂÂ NBC: C+6

Ã¢ÂÂ CNN: C+5

Ã¢ÂÂ MC: C+6 Ã¢ÂÂ Jeff Gauvin (@JeffersonObama) October 8, 2016

FWIW 9 polls, total of 61, mean lead 6.78

UPDATE 8

x Only black female Republican in Congress says she won't vote for Trump https://t.co/R7Cnq1PaeE pic.twitter.com/tfD5R0yLzN Ã¢ÂÂ The Hill (@thehill) October 9, 2016

x More Than 150 Republican Leaders DonÃ¢ÂÂt Support Donald Trump. HereÃ¢ÂÂs When They Reached Their Breaking Point. https://t.co/6iVQmXfJtT Ã¢ÂÂ Garance Franke-Ruta (@thegarance) October 9, 2016

And before I post this next one, this sounds like a tease from someone seeing early results from polls currently in the field:

x Dead on- the brick that will take him down into the mid-30s if it crumbles https://t.co/vfX4R1oL8W Ã¢ÂÂ Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) October 9, 2016

Brownstein is referring to this tweet:

x Number to watch in next polls, white women w/o a college education. Trump HAD been leading with them. W/o them he likely gets crushed in Nov Ã¢ÂÂ Dante Chinni (@Dchinni) October 9, 2016

Chinni would have the contacts to know. For more on his background, try this



UPDATE 9

x Trump begins to bleed Texas donors: https://t.co/W7JwTXjlsi Ã¢ÂÂ Abby Livingston (@TexasTribAbby) October 9, 2016

quoting from the piece:

One high-profile Texan, bundler Gene Powell of San Antonio, pulled out of hosting the San Antonio fundraiser, as previously reported by The Dallas Morning News. The Texas Tribune has confirmed this report. Elsewhere in the state, a Houston donor went public with his ire on Friday. Houston attorney Tony Buzbee — who hosted Trump in June for a fundraiser — wrote on Facebook: “Sorry Donald. I’m done with you. Completely.”

UPDATE 10 Politico/Morning Call poll on impact of video was released at 7 AM. I examine and comment upon the results in this new post