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The number of Assembly Members elected to the Senedd should rise from 60 to 89 or 90, according to an expert panel.

The panel, chaired by Professor Laura McAllister of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, accepts that the recommendation will be controversial.

But it argues that a 50% increase in AMs is necessary to deal with the level of scrutiny required by what will soon be renamed the Welsh Parliament.

An extra 30 members would cost an additional £9.6m a year, says the report – equivalent to 0.08% of the Assembly’s block grant from Westminster.

Prof McAllister said that with Brexit on the horizon there was no doubt that the Assembly would face an additional workload, and that 60 AMs were not enough.

The panel also recommends that the method for electing AMs should be changed to the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system of proportional representation, with measures built in aimed at achieving gender equality. Parties would be legally obliged to pick gender-balanced candidate lists.

An alternative voting system called Flexible List could be used if AMs did not back a gender-balanced version of STV.

The key points of the report Increase the number of AMs from 60 to around 90;

See how funding AMs’ support services can be streamlined to keep the extra cost to a minimum;

Elect the Assembly by Single Transferable Vote in 2021;

New multi-member constituencies should elect between four and six AMs;

Pair the current 40 constituencies to create 20 in total;

Request the devolution of powers under the Equalities Act that would make it possible for the Assembly to legislate for gender balance in candidates’ lists;

If possible, have a gender quota in the electoral system in time for the 2021 Assembly election;

Allow candidates to job-share if they are elected;

Reduce the minimum voting age for Assembly elections from 18 to 16

The panel also recommends that the minimum voting age for Assembly elections should be brought down from 18 to 16.

Defending the report’s central recommendation to increase the number of AMs by 50%, Prof McAllister said: “Our recommendations are designed to ensure that the Assembly has the number of Members it needs to effectively represent the people and communities it serves, hold the Welsh Government to account, and be a parliament that truly works for Wales now and in the future.

“In 1999, AMs had very little scope to affect the daily lives of people in Wales. Today, they are responsible for a budget of £15bn, they make the law in Wales in a host of important areas such as health and education, and they can change the taxes we pay. Today’s institution still has only sixty Members and, with its increasing powers to affect people’s lives, it lacks the capacity it needs.

“This matters. The Assembly and its Members have a real, direct and positive impact on the lives of every one of us in Wales. Calling for more politicians is unpopular; but we have to report as we see the evidence.

"The Panel believes that, as its powers increase, the Assembly cannot continue as it is without risking its ability to deliver effectively for the people of Wales. There is a compelling case for an increase in size to at least 80, and ideally closer to 90 Members.

"There is no good time to remedy this. However, if this is not done now, the Assembly will continue to be undersized, presenting a risk to its ability to deliver for the people it serves.”

We asked Prof McAllister to identify examples of bad Welsh law that had been made as a result of a lack of scrutiny.

She said: “We approached this by trying to analyse exactly what AMs do. I’m as clear as anybody that they don’t just work when they’re in this institution.

"They have representative roles, they have media roles, they have leadership roles within their parties. When they turn up to work here on a Monday afternoon, they’ve probably been working for at least 24 hours when we get here. So what we were trying to do was look at their roles in the round.

"Clearly scrutiny was part of that – what they do in committee. You’ll see in the report some examples of very effective scrutiny where an intervention by Members in a committee has actually generated some significant changes in terms of a policy or a piece of legislation.

“It wasn’t for us to pick up on instances where subjectively people might feel there had been insufficient or not the right kind of scrutiny. These things are extremely hard to measure.”

Former Liberal Democrat AM Eluned Parrott told us: “In terms of scrutiny, the problem in my view is more with Budgets than with legislation. You get a mass of figures thrown at you and not that much time to absorb them.

“In the last year I was an AM – 2015-16 – we had to rely on tip-offs from Cardiff University and the Open University about planned cuts to science and research and widening access in universities totalling around £65m. We were able to reverse the cuts, but wouldn’t have spotted the cuts without the tip-off.”

In the expert panel’s report, the Auditor General for Wales, Huw Vaughan Thomas, is quoted expressing concern that the small size of the Assembly could limit its capacity to carry out its financial scrutiny work effectively, particularly as the powers of the Assembly increase with the devolution of tax powers.

An open letter signed by 12 former AMs also backed the recommendation to increase the number of AMs. It said: “Wales needs an Assembly which has the resources to ensure that the financial, policy and legislative decisions taken by Welsh Government are robust.

“As former AMs, we write to support the case for increasing the number of Members who serve in our National Assembly for the sake of our communities and the people of Wales.

“The recently published report by the Expert Panel on Electoral Reform made the case for more Members both urgent and compelling. It concludes that because of its current size, “it is only a matter of time before the Assembly is unable to fulfil its responsibilities to work for and represent the people of Wales effectively.

“Our Members need more time available to them to scrutinise Ministers properly, and to deal with the challenges and opportunities they face in this changing constitutional and political environment.

"The need for more Members was first highlighted with the publication of the Richard Commission report in 2004.

"Since then, over the last 13 years, our Assembly has become a parliament with greater areas of responsibility, including law-making and tax-varying powers.

“Currently, most Members are expected to sit on so many committees that their time and ability to pursue matters with the depth and intensity required, is severely restricted.

“Other avenues to increase capacity have not only been explored but have also been implemented – with the hours, the days and the weeks Assembly Members sit in session all extended.

“When comparing the size of our National Assembly with other institutions in the UK and abroad, it is clear that our institution is unusually small, and that the people of Wales are far less well represented per head of population compared with equivalent legislatures across the world.

"In fact, our national parliament has fewer elected representatives than many local authorities in Wales. In Wales, we need an effective, dynamic and strong institution which delivers for our communities, and we cannot afford too much delay before addressing this matter.

"We understand and appreciate the public’s reluctance to see an increase in the number of politicians. We believe however that the overwhelming case for an increase in the numbers of AMs should overcome any such reluctance when explained clearly and honestly.”

(Image: South Wales Echo)

The letter was signed by former Labour AMs Edwina Hart, Leighton Andrews, Dame Rosemary Butler and Andrew Davies former Plaid Cymru AMs Lord Dafydd Wigley, Jocelyn Davies and Ieuan Wyn Jones, former Liberal Democrat AMs Baroness Jenny Randerson and Aled Roberts and former Tory AMs William Graham, Jonathan Morgan and Lisa Francis.

The recommendation on compulsory gender-balanced candidates’ lists was welcomed by the Women’s Equality Network (WEN).

Director Catherine Fookes said: Catherine Fookes, Director of WEN Wales said: “We are delighted that the report has gender diversity as one of its guiding principles. While Wales has done well in the past in terms of gender balance, recently the numbers of women AMs has fallen and work must be done to address this.

"It has the potential to make a dramatic difference and would ensure that the 52% of the Welsh population that are women feel properly represented.”

But Ukip Wales leader Neil Hamilton, a regional AM for Mid and West Wales, said the idea of increasing should be put to a referendum, saying: “The last thing Wales needs is yet more politicians. The Assembly costs £55m a year and the increase would mean a budget expansion to over £80m. Do the Welsh people think this is value for money?”

There is some doubt whether the panel’s proposals could be implemented in time for the next Assembly election in 2021. Labour will be consulting its members and affiliates during 2018 with a view to making a decision on whether to support the recommendations at the party’s Spring conference in 2019. There will also be a wide public consultation on the proposals.