Best Case Scenario: 2017 Chris Thompson

We know Cohen and Thompson are smaller backs at 5’6” and 5’7, 190ish lbs. respectively. The two ran their 40-yard dash in the 4.4 range and fall into the generalization of “satellite back”. Perhaps their most eye-popping characteristic is what they do with the ball in space; both had plays that went for 70 yards or longer in 2017. The key difference is their ability to handle a workload. Chris Thompson never reached 135 carries in his college career. Tarik Cohen, meanwhile, averaged 217 per season, topping out at 264. Cohen also out-produced Thompson as a receiver during his time at North Carolina A&T, totaling 53 more career receptions. It’s possible — no, likely — that Cohen can handle more robust usage than Thompson.

Here’s where it gets interesting: Thompson averaged 6.4 carries and 5.4 targets per game last season. Had he remained healthy the entire season, the Washington satellite back projected to total 1,286 yards from scrimmage and 9.6 TDs. In games where Cohen had a combination of 12 or more carries/targets, he averaged 78.3 yards from scrimmage, narrowly missing Thompson’s average of 80.4. A point to remember is that Cohen was tied down in a John Fox scheme paying more homage to the 1980s than an AC/DC cover band. With Matt Nagy taking the reins, it’s within Cohen’s range of outcomes to hit 1250 yards from scrimmage and 6–10 TDs.

Personal approximation of outcome: 25%