On Monday, following a call from his own party’s leaders that he should drop his Senate bid, a fifth woman stepped forward to accuse Alabama Republican Roy Moore of sexually assaulting her when she was a teenager. In a statement to the media, Beverly Young Nelson says that when she was 16 years old, Moore, who was in his 30s at the time, offered her a ride home from the restaurant where she worked but then proceeded to park behind the restaurant, lock the car’s doors, and attack her, attemping to pull off her shirt and force her head into his crotch. Moore, she says, finally let her go after she tried to fight him off while in tears. Nelson specifically cited the “courage of four other women that were willing to speak out about their experiences” for inspiring her to speak out.

That was only the most stunning part of a truly remarkable day. Last week, when the Moore news first broke, Mitch McConnell would only say, "If these allegations are true, he must step aside"—and of course didn't specify how the veracity of the charges might be established. By Monday, though, something had changed: Hours before Nelson’s press conference, McConnell declared, "I believe these women" and added that Moore "should step aside." After Nelson’s address, NRSC chair Cory Gardner took things one step further, saying that if Moore refuses to heed McConnell’s demand and still wins next month’s special election, the Senate should vote to expel him, something that would require the support of two thirds of the chamber.

But while Nelson’s testimony was vividly shocking, it’s unlikely that McConnell actually had a change of heart about Moore's accusers. Rather, it's almost certain that pure political considerations motivated his shift, since politics is the only thing that ever moves McConnell. While we don't know what private data he's seen, two public polls released since the Washington Post's bombshell story came out last Thursday have shown Moore slipping. The latest is from Republican pollster JMC, which tantalizingly finds Democrat Doug Jones leading Moore 48-44, a big turnaround from the 48-40 advantage the firm gave Moore at the start of October.

That follows a Friday survey from Opinion Savvy that had the race tied at 46 apiece; at the end of September, they had Moore up 50-45. A third poll from Change Research, a new outfit that only appeared on the scene this year, still has Moore leading by a 48-44 spread, but odds are McConnell's internal polling looks a lot more like JMC's and Opinion Savvy's. To call on his own party’s candidate to drop out when there isn't even a possibility of replacing him on the ballot harkens back to Mark Foley—not coincidentally, another Republican who pursued teenagers—and suggests McConnell is seriously spooked.

And that leaves Republicans with choices that range from garbage to junk. McConnell says he's "looking at whether or not there is not someone who can mount a write-in campaign successfully," even though a day earlier, the chair of the Alabama GOP had threatened any Republicans who support a write-in bid by saying they could be denied ballot access in the future. What’s more, if Moore refuses to drop out, there's every chance that a write-in candidacy would only split the right-leaning vote and hand victory to Jones. Indeed, Opinion Savvy actually tested a three-way matchup that included Sen. Luther Strange, whom Moore defeated in the primary: Jones leads Moore 44-41 with Strange taking just 12. There's also precious little time for anyone to mount a serious write-in bid, since Election Day is coming up fast on Dec. 12.

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