Overlaying state swings to federal seats can be fraught but the shift to Labor in Sukkar's seat of Deakin was so strong in some suburbs that his future is now in real doubt. In the state seat of Nepean – which overlaps Hunt's blue ribbon seat of Flinders on the Mornington Peninsula – the Liberal primary vote plunged 10 points. Hunt (who voted against Turnbull in August, told Parliament the next day he supported Turnbull and then knifed Turnbull again two days later) had the gall to praise the virtues of party unity on Sunday: "I don't think this is time for people in any position within the Liberal Party to be casting aspersions," he told reporters. "I think the very message is that we all need to work together collaboratively." Despite what MPs say publicly, they all recognise Saturday's repudiation is an ominous sign for next May's federal election. A wipe-out looms unless Scott Morrison pulls off a miracle or Bill Shorten implodes. Neither scenario is particularly likely. The Coalition – which is in minority and must win seats to stay in government – is now on track to lose at least four alone in Victoria and possibly as many as six if things get really ugly. And that's before adding expected losses in Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australia. "It feels to me as though Victoria is now in play in a federal election in a way it hasn't been for decades," said Labor's defence spokesman Richard Marles, a Victorian MP.

Labor says its internal polling found federal Liberals were "toxic" in Victoria. About 50 per cent of Labor's ads in the campaign were negative, and of those, more than 90 per cent apparently featured Morrison, Dutton and Tony Abbott. Loading State issues and Opposition Leader Matthew Guy's lacklustre style were the dominant vote movers, but Labor and Liberal strategists independently estimate the Canberra chaos contributed up to two points towards the 6 per cent statewide swing in Victoria. John Pesutto, who could emerge from Saturday's ashes as the new Victorian Liberal leader, had no hesitation in pointing the finger at Canberra: "Internal issues are a complete waste of time," he said. "They will, as this result is appearing to demonstrate tonight, earn the great wrath of the public. So my advice to our federal colleagues is if you haven't already had enough lessons, you ought to look at Victoria and learn the lessons that we're seeing tonight." Asked whether she would want Morrison to help out with the NSW election campaign in March, Premier Gladys Berejiklian offered a polite thanks but no thanks on Sunday: "I have never relied on anybody outside NSW and I don’t intend to start now."

The Premier has looked at recent history and fears voters still have their baseball bats at the ready. In last month's byelection in Turnbull's former Sydney seat of Wentworth, the party suffered a record-breaking 19 per cent swing. But the Liberals were in trouble well before Morrison came along. Its vote fell more than 5 per cent at a byelection in John Howard's old seat of Bennelong, and plunged an extraordinary 28 per cent in a recent byelection in Wagga Wagga. In the Longman byelection, the Liberal National Party's support fell by more than 9 per cent. While the Liberals won government in South Australia and retained it in Tasmania, they did so despite swings against them. And in last November's Queensland state election, the LNP's share of the primary vote fell 7.6 per cent. Marles agreed Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews won Saturday's election in his own right but believes Liberals have "lost the ability to speak Victorian". "I think Turnbull could do it but Morrison does not, in my judgment, speak to these voters."

The conservatives maintain the only way to keep Shorten from moving into The Lodge within six months is to play to the "base" – but the Victorian experience suggests the base has abandoned them, if it ever really existed in the first place. Liberal moderates point out Queensland and Victoria each have 50 per cent renewable energy targets as evidence their conservative colleagues have misjudged the public's views on climate change and energy. They also say scare campaigns around national security and crime no longer work. Malcolm Turnbull with his then treasurer Scott Morrison at Parliament House. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen In the fight over leadership and ideology, both sides of the divided Liberal Party have overlooked a crucial point: while focusing on the impact of August's leadership convulsions, they have shown zero interest in learning from how Andrews pulled off such an extraordinary win. Andrews emerged as one of Labor's most successful leaders on Saturday after a finely crafted campaign, having presented a big-spending infrastructure program dressed as a vision for the future, boasting of keeping his promises from last campaign and carefully portraying his opponent as welded to unpopular federal destabilisers like Abbott and Dutton.