Recessions characterized by a sharp deceleration in economic growth are often followed by a sharp acceleration. Hence, the origin of the nomenclature a “V-shaped recovery.”

Given the sudden, severe and exogenous nature of the current downturn, the onset of which will likely be dated to March 2020, economists were initially expecting a V-shaped recovery.

That’s not likely to be the case. While it’s true that the recession was brought on by the forced shutdown of vast swaths of the U.S. economy, a re-opening is not about to produce a commensurate rebound.

“ Digging out from the deep hole won’t be quick or easy. ”

Instead, the deep psychological scars are apt to linger, with a concomitant effect on behavior on the part of both consumers and businesses.

Many individuals and businesses saw their lives and livelihoods upended in a flash. Having been deprived of the resources to pay the rent or the mortgage, cover health-care costs or feed the family, consumers may find themselves rethinking their shop-til-they-drop mentality. And consumer spending accounts for almost 70% of inflation-adjusted economic output.

Following the Great Depression of the 1930s, the personal savings rate soared as households came to appreciate the benefits of thrift. That is likely to happen again, once households have the wherewithal — a job and a paycheck — to start saving.

With medical experts warning of a second wave of infections either later this year or next year before a vaccine becomes available, Americans are less likely to frequent restaurants, attend sporting events, go to the theatre or take a vacation that involves plane or boat travel.

Businesses, for their part, will likely replace business travel and the entertainment expenses that go with it with video conferencing. Disrupted global supply chains will take time to reconstitute or revamp. Firms are likely to see their costs for things like health care and paid sick leave rise.

Business fixed investment, which declined in the second, third and fourth quarters of last year in response to the trade war, is not going to ramp up quickly when social distancing is the norm.

The sudden onset of the nationwide lockdown, with no time to prepare, could trigger a wave of business failures and loan delinquencies that have a snowball effect on lenders.

With the entire global economy imploding from the coronavirus shutdown, foreign demand for U.S. goods and services isn’t going to offer much solace. The inability to acquire the necessary personal protective equipment and ventilators during the pandemic is apt to encourage countries to become more insular, reducing international commerce and the benefits it offers.

The volatility in financial markets and significant decline in the prices of stocks SPX, -1.11% DJIA, -0.87% and risk assets will only exacerbate the anxiety of losing a job or closing a family business.

Digging out from the deep hole won’t be quick or easy.

The Great Recession ended in June 2009, but real gross domestic product didn’t eclipse its fourth-quarter 2007 peak until the second quarter of 2011.

Economic growth is expected to take an even bigger hit this time around. The Congressional Budget Office expects real GDP to decline 7% in the second quarter, an annualized rate of 28%. Some private-sector economists are forecasting a steeper drop of 35%-40% on an annualized basis, more than four times the 8.4% decline in the fourth quarter of 2008, which was the worst quarter during the last recession.

And even with projections for a solid bounce back in growth in the third and fourth quarters, assuming the economy reopens by then, GDP growth is expected to show a significant decline for the year. Goldman Sachs economists expect real GDP to contract 6.2% on an annual average basis in 2020, which would be the biggest yearly decline since 1946.

Like GDP growth, the job losses this time around are apt to be more devastating than in the prior recession despite policies put in place to stem the tide. In the two weeks ended March 28, almost 10 million people filed for unemployment benefits, erasing the job gains over the last five years.

The total likely understates the severity of the job losses due to difficulties in filing a claim (long wait times on the phone or websites that crashed).

Economists expect the unemployment rate to easily exceed the post-World War II record of 10.8% from November 1982, with some forecasters looking for a 15% rate in the second quarter.

Also read: The soaring U.S. unemployment rate could approach Great Depression-era levels

CBO, conceding that its economic projections are “highly uncertain at this time,” expects the unemployment rate to rise to 12% in the current quarter and remain elevated, falling only to 9% by the end of 2021.

CBO said its forecasts are premised on “the possibility of later outbreaks of the virus,” which would require a continuation of social distancing. It expects the “effects of job losses and business closures to be felt for some time.”

It took almost five years from the June 2009 recession trough for employment to get back to its pre-recession peak. It’s not far-fetched to anticipate a similar slog this time around.

The $2.2 trillion economic rescue package, or CARES act, is designed to mitigate those job losses and provide relief to both businesses and workers.

The Small Business Administration paycheck protection program offers forgivable loans covering payroll, rent, mortgage interest or utilities, to small businesses that retain their workforce for eight weeks. The program is retroactive to Feb. 15, meaning businesses that laid off workers before the law was passed can rehire in order to qualify for loans.

The $349 billion in the CARES Act allocated for SBA loans may not be enough to support small business, based on the latest National Federation of Independent Business small business optimism index.

The March index tumbled 8.1 points, the largest monthly decline in the survey’s history. “Half of small employers said they can survive for no more than two months under current business conditions,” according to the NFIB.

On Tuesday, members of Congress were working to make an additional $250 billion of loans available for the SBA program.

The relief package offers help for those who lost their jobs as well. It expands unemployment benefits to include the self-employed and independent contractors, increases assistance by $600 a week for four months and extends the duration of benefits by 13 weeks to 39 weeks.

In addition, the federal government is issuing $1,200 checks to individuals who qualify.

Lawmakers are already considering a Phase Four relief package of about $1 trillion, with members coalescing around the need to provide more support for businesses and households rather than money for infrastructure investment.

There will come a time for repairing the nation’s roads, bridges and tunnels, but right now we need to repair people’s lives: at least tide them over until things eventually normalize.

Fiscal stimulus can wait until such a time when businesses and households can respond, hopefully giving a boost to an L-shaped or U-shaped recovery. By then, the hoped-for V-shaped recovery will be out of reach.