If Tyson Summers was on the hot seat to start the 2017 season, by now that ‘seat’ has been reduced to kindling under the heat of Eagles fans’ ire. If he makes it to October as Georgia Southern’s head coach, I would call it a miracle at this point. Dead man walking. I hate to openly speculate about another man’s job, especially when his family and friends might be reading this. But at the end of the day, college football is a business, and tough decisions have to be made.

Tyson Summers is the unofficial CEO of a multi-million dollar company in Georgia Southern football. Its fans and donors are its shareholders. Under Willie Fritz after the Eagles went 17-7, 18-7 if you count the Go Daddy Bowl won by interim Dell McGee. That’s a .720 winning percentage. Tyson Summers is 5-9 with a .357 winning percentage through his first 14 games.

If Disney’s or Google’s revenue were cut in half over the course of 21 months, you better believe the CEO would be fired. But does that mean Georgia Southern will make a change? Let’s unpack this fiasco.

Will a move be made?

I lean towards no. Maybe it is a defense mechanism built up over the years as a sports fan, but I try not to get my hopes up. The reasons are as much situational and logical as they are superstitious and Murphy’s Law. But to paraphrase the great Lloyd Christmas from Dumb and Dumber, I’m telling you there is a chance a move might be made. I would put it at 40%.

I have personally been through five coaching changes over the past 13 years. One thing I have learned is that they come fast and sudden. They always catch people off guard no matter how anticipated the move was at the time. Eagles fans have been fortunate enough not to have a firing since the 2009 sacking of Chris Hatcher.

Georgia Southern has a history of firing coaches with way better track records than Tyson Summers. Tim Stowers won the I-AA national title in 1990 but was fired in 1995 after going 9-4 with a trip to the quarterfinals. Mike Sewak was let go with a lifetime record of 35-14.

An itchy trigger finger has gotten Georgia Southern in predicaments before. See 2006-2009 for reference. For a program that has had only three losing seasons since the restart in 1982, this experience has been downright traumatic.

Whether or not Tom Kleinlein is gun-shy or trigger-happy, the pressure is mounting. The national media has picked up on the disarray in south Georgia. The Eagles made both ESPN.com’s bottom 10 and was #2 on USA Today’s list of most disappointing teams, behind only Texas A&M. Can Kleinlein survive this pressure all season and get a cheaper buyout in the offseason? Or is the time to rip the band-aid off now, and salvage what’s left?

What affect would a change have?

There are recent precedents to look at for early season coaching changes. LSU fired Les Miles on September 25th of last year. Ed Orgeron took over, went 6-2 down the stretch and beat Heisman winner Lamar Jackson and the Louisville in the Citrus Bowl to close out the season. The Tigers finished 9-4, but they have LSU talent.

Ron Turner was fired from FIU on the same day as Les Miles last season. Defensive coordinator Ron Cooper took over and the Panthers finished 4-8 overall, 4-4 in conference. Now they have Butch Davis.

Tim Beckman was fired from Illinois in August 2015, a week before the season started. He was replaced by interim coach Bill Cubit, they proceeded to go 5-7, which wasn’t bad for a coach hired a week before the season. Juxtapose it with Lovie Smith’s 3-9 record his 1st year in Champaign, Ill, and it looks even better.

Coaches have survived larger embarrassments. Will Muschamp was allowed to coach one more full season at Florida after losing to Georgia Southern to close out the 2013 season. Lloyd Carr was able to keep his job until the end of the season after losing to Appalachian State in 2007.

This is the 2nd time in 10 months that President Hebert has seen the wrath of the Eagle fan base. If President Hebert or Tom Kleinlein value the opinion of their donors and customers, a sacrifice might need to be made to appease the mob. It might be better to get a jumpstart on the coaching search so that the program can save what it can out of the recruiting class.

An audition for Bryan Cook as interim head coach would also be useful. His offense has been uninspiring so far (dead last in the country actually). But maybe Coach Cook brings more confidence than Tyson Summers to the position. I remember players talking about how you could hear him yell from the Arby’s across the street from the practice fields on Fair Rd.

Despite a good string of commitments in August, Georgia Southern sits in 5th place on the 247 Sports 2018 Sun Belt recruiting rankings, behind the four “State” schools (Appalachian St, Arkansas St, Texas St, and Georgia St). This recruiting class can be salvaged if a change is made early enough. Mid-December would be a less-advantageous position to recover from.

Watching Coach Summers answer questions during the postgame show and say things like “Well we won the 2nd half” tell me that his confidence is shot. He’s feeling the pressure. He’s grasping at straws for anything positive. It felt as if the players have lost confidence in him.

Can Georgia Southern afford it?

“But we can’t afford it.”

I have heard this refrain repeated by Eagles fans so many times, on so many platforms, that many of them believe as the truth. I know where this mentality comes from. Georgia Southern has never been a wealthy school. Our athletic budgets, even in the Southern Conference, ranked at-best in the middle of the pack. One of the reasons it took so long for Georgia Southern to move to FBS is that they were already pinching pennies as it was.

Due to a combination of factors. An increase in student fees, increasing enrollment, conference revenues, and the new consolidation with Armstrong State in Savannah; Georgia Southern’s athletic budget jumped from $18 million in 2015 to $30 million in 2017. Once Armstrong State officially becomes part of Georgia Southern next fall and adds another 7,000 students, who knows how high the budget will go?

Now Tom Kleinlein is running a surplus to the tune of $1.2 million. Tyson Summers’ buyout comes out to $900,000 this season and $600,000 in 2018. It’s now a question of whether that extra $300K is worth waiting out this season or not. The longer he waits, the more pressure he is under.

I was curious about what Georgia Southern could afford with a $30 million budget. So I put together a chart of peer schools to Georgia Southern in the G5 with similar budgets, in the $27-32 million range. Here is what I found.

School Coach Salary Bonuses Asst. budget Ath. Budget FIU Butch Davis $900K $500K $1.6m $29m FAU Lane Kiffin $900K $550K $1.4m $32m UTSA Frank Wilson $835K $185K $1m $27m WKU Mike Sanford $800K $500K $1m $29m Utah St. Matt Wells $800K $730K $1.4m $32m Marshall Doc Holliday $762K $145K $1.2m $30m Toledo Jason Candle $675K $600K $944K $27m NIU Rod Carey $623K $205K $921K $28m Troy Neal Brown $600K $490K $1.1m $27m Ohio Frank Solich $572K $313K $900K $31m App. State Scott Satterfield $525K $290K $1m $31m South Alabama Joey Jones $525K $211K $1.1m $27m Georgia St. Shawn Elliott $515K $205K $1.1m $28m Georgia Southern Tyson Summers $500K $200K $1.1m $30m

I broke it up into three categories. Salary, bonuses, and assistant budget. Of course FIU and FAU are at the top with their glamorous hires of Butch Davis and Lane Kiffin. UTSA is trying to make a similar splash. But take a closer look at the other schools near the top: Marshall, WKU, Utah State, Toledo, and NIU.

These are programs that Georgia Southern is trying to emulate at this level. When Georgia Southern has roughly the same athletic budget as Marshall, yet pay Tyson Summers a quarter-million less, how do you expect to compete?

Georgia Southern ranked near the bottom of the schools it is competing against, both in the Sun Belt and outside of it. This is the first year where Georgia Southern’s operating budget is this high, so of course it will take time to adjust. But the “we can’t afford it excuse” holds less water than it used to.

If a move was made, what is the best course forward?

1. Mike Houston – James Madison head coach – Overall 59–20; defending FCS champ, beat South Carolina when he was at the Citadel. His star has been rising like a geyser since his Lenoir-Rhyne days.

FCS National Championship (2016)

CAA (2016), SoCon (2015), 3× South Atlantic (2011–2013)

SoCon Coach of the Year: 2015

SAC Coach of the Year: 2011, 2012, 2013

AFCA Region I Coach of the Year: 2015, 2016

AFCA National FCS Coach of the Year: 2016

CAA Coach of the Year: 2016

ECAC Bob Ford FCS Coach of the Year: 2016

Price tag: $400K

2. Ivin Jasper – Navy offensive coordinator/QB coach – 18th year at the Naval Academy, spent 16 as the QB coach and 10 as the offensive coordinator. The Midshipmen had a 120-61 (.663) record over the last 14 years, that includes 13 bowl games, 10 Commander-In-Chief’s Trophies and a 14-1 mark against Army. Jasper came to Navy from Georgia Southern QB/BB coach for three years including back-to-back NCAA Division I-AA National Championships in 1999 and 2000.

Price tag: $350K

3. Brian Bohannon – Kennesaw State head coach – Paul Johnson tree, has coached at GS before just like Jasper. He’s KSU’s first ever coach. That program is his baby and he’s done a good job raising it.

1994–1995 West Georgia (AC)

1996 Gardner–Webb (WR)

1997–1999 Georgia Southern (WR)

2000–2001 Georgia Southern (DB)

2002–2007 Navy (WR)

2008–2012 Georgia Tech (QB/B-backs)

2013–present Kennesaw State

Price tag: $221K

4. Brent Davis – Army offensive coordinator/OL coach – Coached an Army rushing attack that ranked second in the nation in 2016. Army set a new program record for single season rushing touchdowns with 46 and their 4,412 yards was the third most in academy history in ’16. Took GS to the FCS playoffs 11 times as part of the coaching staff.

1997-05: Georgia Southern (assistant coach/running backs/offensive line)

2006-09: Virigina Military Institute (offensive coordinator/quarterbacks/running backs)

interim head coach (1/2008-3/2008)

2010-13: Georgia Southern (offensive coordinator/offensive line)

2014-pres.: Army West Point (offensive coordinator/offensive line)

Price tag: $300K

5. Doug Ruse – Tulane offensive coordinator – Willie Fritz’s offensive coordinator. His offense was an evolutionary step forward in triple option concepts. His gun/pistol triple option produced 37.7 points and 456 yards per game in his two years in Statesboro. Was a nominee for the Broyles Award in 2014.

Price tag: $200-400K

6. Mike Thiessen – Air Force offensive coordinator/QB coach – Air Force’s offensive coordinator for the past four seasons under Troy Calhoun. They are currently tops in the nation in rushing at 473 ypg through 2 games. 2nd last year.

Price tag: $217K

7. Bob DeBesse – New Mexico offensive coordinator – Bob Davie has brought the triple option to the desert. Bob DeBesse is his coordinator and he led a Lobo offense that lead the league in rushing last season. OL coach Saga Tuitele was thrown around as a possible offensive coordinator before Bryan Cook was hired.

Price tag: $221K

8. Dell McGee – UGA RB coach – This one is complicated. He lead the Eagles to their one and only bowl victory over Bowling Green in 2015’s Go Daddy Bowl. He served admirably as the interim head coach after Willie Fritz left for Tulane. He was not retained after Tyson Summers was hired, much to the chagrin of Eagle fans that grew to love the guy. His track record at the high school ranks is impressive. UGA promptly scooped up McGee after they saw the development of young backs like Matt Breida, LA Ramsby, and Wes Fields under his watch at GS. He already got a raise from UGA heading into his second year. Would he make a great head coach even though he’s just a position coach? Maybe. I heard he can recruit and he looks mean enough to be a head coach. But it would be a gamble.

Price tag: $350K

9. Bryan Cook – GS OC/QB coach – Had to throw his name in here. If he does get named the interim at some point this season than it will be his audition. The first two games have gone about as badly as they could have gone. Benching Shai Werts may or may not solve that problem. If he turns it around and gets this offense going by the end of the year there’s a slight chance he might take over, but it’s diminishing by the day.

Price tag: $315K

10. Wildcard – Jeff Monken, Willie Fritz, Les Miles, Chip Kelly, Greg Schiano? – I had to throw in a wild card for some fun. If the F_U schools can slap down close to $1 million to lure Lane Kiffin and Butch Davis, why can’t Georgia Southern be that ballsy? Aim high and settle high.

Price tag; $1 million/year

Is there any hope left?

New Hampshire was supposed to be the regroup game. It was meant to be easy. The schedule only gets tougher from here. I think Shai Werts needs to sit. He is not ready. Let the juniors LaBaron Anthony and Kado Brown get playing time and let Werts learn from the sideline. If they commit to establishing the dive early on in games, it might make the offense functional.

If Tyson Summers stays, it is going to get ugly. GS will lose more games. Probably to App State, Arkansas State, and Troy. If Georgia Southern loses to Georgia State for a third straight year, I shudder to think what our fan base would be like at that point. Tom Kleinlein is firmly on the hot seat right now. With the former DII athletic director of the year Lisa Sweany as his deputy, he’s become more expendable.

If Tyson Summers is let go by the end of September, then there’s a sliver of hope for an Ed Orgeron/Tim Beckman type, circle-the-wagons, late season run. 6-6 might be salvageable. Either way, it is going to be a bumpy ride.

Georgia Southern has a history of firing coaches with way better track records than Tyson Summers. Tim Stowers won the I-AA national title in 1990 but was fired in 1995 after going 9-4 with a trip to the quarterfinals. Mike Sewak was let go after back-to-back playoff trips.

An itchy trigger finger has gotten Georgia Southern in predicaments before. See 2006-2009 for reference. For a program that has had only three losing seasons since the restart in 1982, this experience has been downright traumatic.