By Patrick Barrios

Anyone who wins the Ontario NDP nomination fight in Ottawa Centre will face an uphill battle against the high-profile incumbent, Liberal MPP and Ontario Attorney General Yasir Naqvi.

But according to Carleton University political scientist Jonathan Malloy, if the NDP has a chance in any Eastern Ontario riding on election day, June 7, 2018, it’s Ottawa Centre.

Although the riding has returned a Liberal each provincial election since 2003, its constituents have elected NDP candidates seven times.

That makes Ottawa Centre a crucial battleground in the next election.

Four candidates are vying to be the NDP standard-bearer next spring:

Shawn Barber is a diplomat and the former high commissioner to Mozambique.

Erica Braunovan is a local school board trustee and owner of Brown Van Brewing.

Joel Harden is an education researcher and community organizer.

Angella MacEwen is a senior economist with the Canadian Labour Congress.

All four say they believe Ottawa Centre deserves better representation at Queen’s Park.

“We tend to elect a lot of lawyers to represent communities at all levels of government, and I think it’s important to diversify that,” said Braunovan.

The candidates face a difficult challenge against Naqvi, a tireless campaigner who is omnipresent at community events in the riding.

In the last provincial election in 2014 – Naqvi’s third consecutive victory – he earned more votes than all his opponents combined. That had never happened in Ottawa Centre before.

He beat the NDP candidate, then-Ottawa school trustee Jennifer McKenzie, who now leads New Brunswick’s provincial NDP, by almost 17,000 votes.

But Barber says he believes constituents are tiring of Naqvi and the Liberals, citing a number of scandals.

“If the province of Ontario is going to make a change, who are you going to side with?” asks Barber. “Are you going to stick with the old ways of the Liberal Party of Ontario, which has brought you cash-for-access scandals, violated international human rights terms in our jails, and failed to adequately respond to the rising opioid crisis?”

Or, he continued, “are you going to embrace a party that represents change – a party that’s going to stand against Patrick Brown’s social conservatism, with a candidate who has represented you internationally for 25 years, who brings a new face, a new pragmatism to the table?”

Braunovan takes a similar tack.

“Naqvi and the Liberals privatized hydro. There’s been scandal after scandal, and they’re currently fighting court cases,” she said. “How much attention is being taken away from our constituents as these battles go on? Ottawa Centre deserves a representative that is able to be accountable back to the riding and the constituents, not accountable back to the Liberal party.”

Malloy agreed that the Ontario Liberals risk becoming stale to some voters after 14 straight years in power, though he predicts Naqvi will remain a formidable opponent.

“Over time, governments tend to fade. People tend to become disillusioned, because governments start to rack up mixed records. They invariably experience scandals.”

What’s more, the NDP is getting some media buzz with their new federal leader, Jagmeet Singh. A revival in interest in the federal NDP could occur in Ottawa Centre. The riding went NDP from 2004 to 2015, electing first Ed Broadbent and then Paul Dewar.

But political commentator Ian Capstick says that while poor federal leadership would hurt the Ontario NDP, he’d be shocked if positive federal leadership had any helpful effect.

“Jagmeet Singh is a great leader and a great choice,” says Capstick. “But when voters provincially go to the polls in Ottawa Centre, they’re most certainly not thinking about who is running and leading the federal New Democrats – unless that person is doing a horrible job.”

Regardless, Harden says the NDP has to rebuild lost connections to grassroots members. After speaking with hundreds of NDP members in his campaign, he says many noted that the party only ever contacts them to ask for money or to put up lawn signs.

“Ottawa Centre is a highly educated, highly engaged community,” Harden says. “We have so much talent on a grassroots level of people who don’t seek the limelight, but do great work and volunteering day-in and day-out. If we’re able to convince these people to get behind a grassroots campaign of bold ideas and local organizing, we will give Mr. Naqvi a run for his money.”

The NDP will also have to work to differentiate itself from the Liberals who have been trying to own the left with issues such as raising the minimum wage and lower tuition fees for university students.

“The Liberal party’s goal is to own the political left spectrum, to take it away from the New Democrats,” said Malloy. “And that is the New Democrats’ greatest fear.”

Harden says he hopes to counter Liberal moves by an action plan for long-term care for elders, addressing student debt and tackling the climate crisis. He says he’ll work to ensure access to drug addiction services and putting an end to racial profiling by police forces.

Barber’s priorities include dealing with the opioid crisis, expanding public transit, building safer streets and reducing poverty. He said, if nominated, his campaign would focus on collaborative efforts to achieve communal goals.

“Politicians these days are too often keen to divide and label,” he said. “That’s not my style. That’s not what I’ve been trained to do professionally in my 25 years as a diplomat. I’m about bringing people together to solve real problems.”

Braunovan said she hopes to address the community’s housing crisis, and help small businesses turn a profit while paying their employees a decent living wage.

MacEwen says she is focusing her campaign on affordable housing, dropping tuition fees, job stability for young workers and affordable childcare.

“Affordable housing is really critical in Ottawa Centre – about half the riding are renters, and half are owners. For both groups of people, housing is becoming increasingly unaffordable,” she said.

MacEwen said her experience as an economist makes her an invaluable asset to the NDP.

“Traditionally, a weakness of the NDP is that we’re told we don’t have the economic credibility to make some of the arguments that we make. But that’s my job,” says MacEwen. “I provide the economic rationale for the things we want to do. At elections, I can say ‘Here’s what we want to do. It makes sense. Here are the ways it’ll make our economy stronger.’ ”

MacEwen also spent 14 years with the Royal Canadian Navy Reserves, six as an officer, which she said helped her grow to be a better, stronger leader.

NDP members in Ottawa Centre will vote on Oct. 29 at 440 Albert St. Registration starts at 1 p.m. and the nomination meeting begins an hour later.

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This story was produced in collaboration with the Carleton University journalism program and Centretown News.