In case this isn’t obvious, these are the steps a party takes when it’s panicking. Republican officials expected to win Kansas’ congressional special election without lifting a finger, and the fact that party leaders are scrambling to this degree suggests GOP officials are genuinely afraid of a Democratic upset.And that would be extraordinary under the circumstances. This is, after all, a district Donald Trump won by 27 points.A local GOP consultant told Politico the other day, “Kansas should not be in play, but Kansas is in play.”As regular readers know , to get a sense of a congressional district’s political leanings, there’s a helpful metric called the Partisan Voter Index, or PVI, which was created 20 years ago by the Cook Political Report. Districts that lean slightly towards Democrats might have a PVI of D+2 or D+3. Districts that are safely in Republican hands might show a PVI of R+10 or greater. In general, competitive districts are seen as having a +5 advantage or less for either party.Kansas’ 4th congressional district, home to tomorrow’s special election, is R+15 . That’s the sort of number that ordinarily ends a race before it starts.And yet, here we are. Republicans have nominated State Treasurer Ron Estes, someone who’s already won two statewide elections, while Democrats are running James Thompson, a civil rights attorney. (Kansas Democratic leaders originally eyed a center-right Dem for this race, but local party activists rallied behind Thompson.)It’s admittedly hard to imagine Thompson prevailing, but the evidence can’t be ignored: if Republicans were confident of a successful outcome, we wouldn’t see Pence, Ryan, Cruz, and the NRCC rushing to intervene on Estes’ behalf.Of course, what should terrify Republicans is the fact that they’re having to work in this district at all. A lot can and will happen between now and next year’s midterms, but if the GOP has to worry about R+15 districts, 2018 will not be a good year for the Republican Party.