Best-Case/Worst-Case Scenarios

The Boston Celtics have a ridiculous number of moving parts over the next two years in the NBA draft, and a number of different ways each lottery could break. Some of the best scenarios swing wildly in the Celtics favor, potentially giving Boston unmatchable trade assets AND an embarrassment of riches that could land a superstar without completely mortgaging the future.

That’s what happens when a team holding on to relevance for dear life trades four (!) unprotected (!!) future first-round picks (!!!) to a team that managed to acquire an All-NBA guard for next to nothing. The Celtics have made a lot of good moves, but their luck has been absurdly good so far, and while that’s not guaranteed to continue, even the worst-case scenarios leave Boston with All-Stars and intriguing young talent.

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So what exactly would be those best-case scenarios for Boston in the 2018 draft? How could they flip those best-case scenarios into other positive outcomes? And how could things go wrong? Here's an in-depth look at how the next couple of drafts could break down, and the complications that could arise as a result.

AP Photo/David Zalubowski

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Adding Two Top-Five Picks

How It Happens: The Brooklyn Nets land in the lottery, and the Los Angeles Lakers' pick lands between two and five.

The Celtics Get: Michael Porter Jr. and Marvin Bagley.

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This would require some serious lotto-ball luck, but it’s not inconceivable by any means. The Nets pick would be the easy one — Brooklyn would have to be one of the worst teams in the league (preferably the absolute worst), guaranteeing a top-four pick.

Then the Lakers would need to avoid winning the lottery (since that pick would the go to the 76ers), but ideally, they would finish with either the worst or second-worst record in the league (guaranteeing a top-four or top-five pick). Of course, unless the Celtics win the lottery via the Nets again, that's likely one of those four spots spoken for. The ideal way for the regular-season to wrap up for Boston would be a repeat of last year's draft order — the Nets finishing with the worst record, and the Lakers finishing second.

If it happens, it's difficult to overstate how lucky the Celtics would be. Classes like 2018 — especially if Marvin Bagley does indeed reclassify — don’t happen often. Bagley, Porter, Mohamed Bamba, DeAndre Ayton, and Spanish sensation Luka Doncic could all be top overall picks in other drafts. As things stand, Bagley and Porter will likely be one and two (in some order), followed by the other three (barring a ridiculous performance by Ayton or Bamba this season).

Sniping two of those players would give the Celtics almost unheard of depth, and a young core on the rise behind a squad that could potentially win the East as things stand.

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Complications

So what's the problem here? Cap space. The Celtics would have a few options to cut down, but their luxury tax bill would skyrocket by as much as $15 million per year if they added a second lottery pick and the guaranteed rookie scale money attached. They would have a few options this season — many of which fans might not like, such as this one — that could open up roster and cap space, but difficult decisions would need to be made.

To be clear, these are the richest of rich-people problems, but they are difficult decisions nonetheless.

Of course, there's one way the Celtics could consolidate all those assets ...

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The Big Trade & Balancing Act

How it happens: The Lakers pick conveys, and the Nets pick lands in the top five. Marvin Bagley completes his reclassification process.

Then the Celtics trade Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Morris and Marcus Smart or Jae Crowder to the New Orleans Pelicans for Anthony Davis, in addition to one of their two top-five picks.

The Celtics Get: A core of Isaiah Thomas, Gordon Hayward, Anthony Davis, Al Horford and Crowder/Smart, in addition to young, cheap talent under rookie scale deals (their other top-five pick, as well as Terry Rozier and Semi Ojeleye).

Michael Dwyer / AP Photo

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If the Nets have a bad season (which seems likely, since their best player will probably be either Jeremy Lin or D’Angelo Russell) and the Lakers pick conveys (more on this later), Boston could pretty easily put together a trade package that makes a lot of sense for New Orleans. Pelicans big man Anthony Davis is essentially the only top-five talent that could conceivably be available via trade over the next few years. If the Celtics add Davis, they would immediately become contenders and a team that could potentially pose a real threat to the Golden State Warriors.

The Pelicans, meanwhile, could rebuild by immediately adding exciting young talent. They dealt a lot of talent to acquire DeMarcus Cousins (which was a reasonable gamble at the time), but this trade would immediately put them in a great rebuilding position, significantly limiting how long they would project to be bad in a market that barely supports them.

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Complications

So that’s great! The only issue: A Davis deal at this point would be very costly to Boston’s future flexibility.

Davis is the type of talent for whom that type of move is worthwhile, but simply to make salaries match (a necessity, since the Celtics have no cap flexibility whatsoever) both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum would likely have to be moved, in addition to Marcus Morris and either Jae Crowder or Marcus Smart. The Celtics have the assets to get another team involved if necessary, but either way, they would be dipping deep to make a deal. The Pelicans, who would be in a rare place of power, could keep the Celtics on the phone while demanding other high picks as well.

The Celtics haven’t been in the business of sacrificing future flexibility to this point, but that might have been to keep their options open for Davis specifically. He’s a perfect fit, but Boston would certainly have to pay up.

Sans an Anthony Davis deal, the Celtics have one other best-case scenario ...

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Top-Five Picks in 2018 And 2019

How It Happens: The Nets have another abysmal year, but the Lakers pick lands outside the top five. In 2019, Sacramento lets its youth movement take over — losing a lot of games, but gaining valuable experience. The Kings' pick or the Philadelphia 76ers pick ends up in the top five.

The Celtics Get: Michael Porter Jr. and either R.J. Barrett or Zion Williamson.

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The Celtics could avoid the cap-space situation entirely if they got a top pick from the Nets in 2018 and either the Kings or the 76ers came through with a high lottery pick in 2019.

That’s not out of the question either. Los Angeles probably won’t be the worst team in the league with the additions of Brook Lopez and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as well as their improving young players. The Kings, meanwhile, added George Hill and Zach Randolph, but they won’t be enough to vault Sacramento into the playoffs in a loaded Western Conference. The 76ers look like they will improve significantly, but nothing is certain with that team, especially given the injury history.

Porter would be a fantastic addition, and both Williamson and Barrett look like studs at the next level. Meanwhile, there's a solid argument to be made that stretching out top picks across multiple years — given the future cap hits — is as good as having an embarrassment of riches one year.

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Complications

This option isn’t likely to bring in as much high-powered talent as the other two. Even if the Kings/76ers pick is the No. 2 selection (which would require one heck of a stroke of luck), projections at the moment would likely leave both outside of 2018's top five. But it would allow the Celtics to keep their current core together while still adding lottery talent to a very talented team.

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Worst-Case Scenarios

Relying on bad teams to be bad for your lottery picks while you improve is one heck of a strategy, but the Celtics have been toying with fire without getting burned for some time. Could that come to an end this year?

Here are a few scenarios that should remind Celtics fans to check themselves whenever they get greedy.

AP Photo/Elise Amendola

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Scenario No. 1: The Nets, Lakers, Kings and 76ers are all actually good.

If the Nets somehow put together a better 2018 season in the awful Eastern Conference, the Kings improve well ahead of schedule by 2018-19 and the 76ers can stay healthy, the Celtics could end up with several low-level lottery picks.

The Celtics helped minimize their risk of completely missing out on the Lakers pick next season with some hefty protections. If the Lakers pick doesn't convey, Boston gets the more favorable of the picks between the 76ers and the Kings, both protected for the top overall selection.

In other words, if both the 2018 Lakers and the 2019 Kings win the lottery, the Celtics still get Philadelphia's pick in 2019 (rather than the usual pair of second rounders, in this situation). That was a pretty smart bit of maneuvering in the deal that ended up giving the Celtics Jayson Tatum.

Still, the outside chance exists that all of these seemingly bad teams are better than we think.

Jae C. Hong / AP Photo

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Scenario No. 2: Anthony Davis gets traded elsewhere (or stays put)

The Celtics could pretty indisputably put together the best offer for Davis, but the Pelicans could always choose to send him elsewhere, if their season falls apart. That would be a bit of a blow — much of Boston’s maneuvering seems to have been to put themselves in a position to acquire Davis while maintaining flexibility. If he gets dealt elsewhere, it’s unclear exactly how good this current Celtics core of Thomas, Horford and Hayward will be.

The bright side is that the Celtics would still get to keep all of their young players. But this is a real possibility in which the path from good to great becomes blurrier.

David Zalubowski / AP Photo

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Scenario No. 3: The big trade doesn't make the Celtics contenders.

Quietly, this is the worst of the worst-case scenarios, and it could happen a couple of different ways.

The most unpleasant ones would require injuries, but that could happen to any team.

It’s also possible that the Warriors simply have too much firepower, even if the Celtics do trade for Anthony Davis. Perhaps — without defensive players like Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley — the Celtics wouldn't be able to slow them down, and the Warriors would still roll over Boston at full rebuild strength. That would be somewhat disastrous (or at least, as disastrous as a situation can be in which a team employs four potential All-Stars in the weaker conference). The Celtics would have given up all of their future flexibility, only to come up just short.

Frank Franklin II / AP Photo

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Tom Westerholm | twesterh@masslive.com

Tough Decisions

If the Celtics only get one top-five pick in the 2018 NBA draft, they will have to make a couple of different difficult decisions as well. Here's a closer look at some of them.

Meredith Perri / MassLive

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Bamba vs. Ayton vs. Bagley (vs. Williams vs. Carter)

The Celtics could use a big prospect, and the 2018 draft features at least two and as many five elite ones (depending on Bagley's reclassification, as well as Robert Williams' and Wendell Carter's respective development).

Bamba is the potential defensive monster, with Rudy Gobert potential. Ayton could be a unicorn prospect — blocking shots and shooting easy 3-pointers — if he puts everything together. Bagley has drawn comparisons to Amar'e Stoudemire, except he seems like even more of a monster on the glass. Williams is springy and long, an excellent rebounder. Carter could be a fully realized Jared Sullinger with a higher ceiling.

Brad Stevens only sees three positions — ball-handler, wing and big — but the big prospects in the upcoming draft are elite. If the Celtics are looking to upgrade their future big positions, this might be the draft in which to do it.

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Michael Porter vs. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum

Michael Porter is really good. We wrote about him after seeing him at the Hoophall Classic — there simply aren't many prospects with his size and skill set. His ceiling as a wing is even higher than Brown and Tatum, and with his 3-point shooting, length and defense, he seems like he really might reach it.

If the Celtics want to keep all three, they could try to slide Brown down to the shooting guard and play Brown/Tatum/Porter as a high-powered trio, brimming with length and skill. On paper, one of the bigs might make more sense, but don't rule out the potential allure of that kind of switchy versatility, especially if the Celtics win the lottery again.

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The Luka Doncic question

Some scouts have called Luka Doncic the best international prospect of all time. His skill set and size are both fascinating — an elite passer and pick-and-roll ball-handler (potentially a point guard) at 6-foot-7 with long arms who can also pull up and hit from 3-point range.

Doncic will be playing overseas this year and won't be as easily accessible to watch as the players spending this season in college. Will that affect his draft stock? Will a team in the top five feel comfortable rolling the dice on him?

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What if the pick lands outside the top five?

We mentioned Wendell Carter and Robert Williams, both of whom are big prospects that could be on teams' radars after this college season. Another intriguing player is Michigan State forward Miles Bridges — a potential stretch forward who shot 38.9 percent from 3-point range last year and could boost his profile this season.

The Celtics also opened up the possibility of taking Alabama point guard Collin Sexton by trading down and not taking Markelle Fultz. Falling out of the top five would be a blow, but plenty of options exist.

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Conclusion: What to reasonably expect (as of now)

The most likely option is something in the middle. The Nets pick will likely be very good this year, although the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks may surpass Brooklyn in pure awfulness. Still, that selection seems likely to land in the top five.

The Lakers are probably a little too good to land in the top five without some lottery luck. The best guess would be to project ahead to 2019, where the Kings will be better, but still relatively bad. They will still be playing in the Western Conference, meaning they are still unlikely to be anywhere near the playoffs.

That means that the Celtics are most likely to add another top-five pick this year (in a five-player draft) and a lottery pick the next (in which they very well might be the favorites to win the Eastern Conference). The Kings/Sixers pick doesn’t have top-one potential, but Boston could conceivably play in the NBA Finals and then add a lottery talent.

That’s a pretty incredible haul.

AP Photo/Gregory Payan