Though some were bold enough to predict that both the Flash Wolves and Origen would escape the Group Stages, they tended to be among the minority. Origen and Flash Wolves had surprising performances in Paris, with Origen taking a game off both KT Rolster and LGD Gaming while the Flash Wolves went undefeated against the KOO Tigers.

Going into this matchup, we will again look at the majority prediction. Many, including LMS analyst, Clement K. Chu, have thrown their hats in the Origen ring. Just as both the Flash Wolves and Origen made it out of Group Stage, however, the result might not be as clear cut as some think.

Flash Wolves and Origen share the unique distinction among quarterfinalists of possessing a gold deficit at 15 minutes on average in Group Stage games. Origen averages -971 gold at 15 minutes, while the Flash Wolves sit at -368. Oracles Elixir’s Early Game Rating based on objective control and gold is lowest for Origen and Flash Wolves of the eight quarterfinalists, but both teams also sit at the top of the Mid-Late Rating.

Perhaps Origen and Flash Wolves are the most stylistically similar matchup of the quarterfinals. It it will be interesting to see where the games turn.

Matchup to Watch: Welcome to the Jungle

Going into the event, many praised junglers Hung "Karsa" Hau Hsuan and Maurice "Amazing" Stückenschneider but placed them lower on the jungler ladder than the likes of Bae "Bengi" Seongung, Ming “Clearlove” Kai, and Lee "KaKAO" Byungkwon. However, since Group Stage, it’s become clear that the former are more than worthy of being compared to the latter.

Though these players haven’t necessarily gotten the early game advantages for their respective teams, they’ve been instrumental in turning late fights or making timely trades. Karsa was center stage in Flash Wolves’ victories over KOO Tigers, as his synergy with Huang “Maple” Yitang allowed their duo to attack the weaker duo of Lee "KurO" Seohaeng and Lee “Hojin” Hojin. Maple’s advantage on Leblanc gave the Flash Wolves one of their few early leads in the Group Stage.

The KOO Tigers’ mid lane and jungle synergy represented a weak point for the team, but the same cannot be said for Origen. Though when one thinks of Amazing, he’s often associated with the playmaking of support Alfonso "mithy" Aguirre Rodriguez, Enrique "xPeke" Cedeño Martínez’s recent performances have begged more mid lane attention.

It just hasn’t necessarily come. Origen’s high dragon control rates are a symptom of their bottom lane snowball emphasis, and part of the reason they’ve fallen behind has been as a result of other teams exerting mid or top lane pressure in response. This is exactly how the Flash Wolves won against KOO.

If Origen do their due diligence, they’ll understand the importance of sending their counter-ganking duo to the mid lane to shut down Maple and Karsa. Since that hasn’t been their strongest approach, I can definitely see the Flash Wolves getting the upper hand in the early game clash of the poor early game teams.

Origen shine better in the retaliation. Around mid game, Amazing’s fearlessness comes out, and Origen are able to make smarter trades. They prioritize objectives and make use of double Teleport. This has allowed them to come back from early misplays by taking dragons or turrets uncontested.

The Flash Wolves’ mid-to-late game power comes from team fighting and finding opportunities for 5v5s. By the admission of Hu "SwordArt" Shuojie, Hsiung "NL" Wenan is better at long range AD Carries. If these picks are denied, he struggles more to have an impact. While the clash of SwordArt and mithy might be just as interesting as the war between Karsa and Amazing, the power of Jesper "Niels" Svenningsen over NL is the reason I think the Flash Wolves will have a harder time coming back through team fighting.

The best option available to the Flash Wolves is to roam aggressively with SwordArt and Karsa to snowball the early game through mid lane hard enough that Origen cannot make a comeback. With this relatively even jungle-support matchup, it won’t be easy.

X Factor: Top Lane

Paul “sOAZ” Boyer and Chou "Steak" Luhsi have been self-sufficient islands while their junglers dote on bottom and mid lane. Steak showed he’s capable of holding his own, even if his play won’t wow audiences, while sOAZ’s persistent split-pushing threat has been a surprise throughout the Group Stage.

As the Flash Wolves rarely turn to Steak to dominate his lane or apply jungle pressure top, it’s likely sOAZ will be much better off against him than he was against Kim “Ssumday” Chanho or Lee “Flame” Hojong. Steak will make himself difficult to simply dominate 1v1, but sOAZ’s main strength comes from controlling side waves in the mid to late game, and that’s where he’ll truly become a threat on the likes of Vladimir or Fiora.

Good side wave control through sOAZ is a big part of why Origen are able to make smart early game objective rotations. If Flash Wolves simply look to all-in on team fights, I see the game slowly getting chipped away from them.

Key Strategy: Teleport

Flash Wolves have two options of getting the upper hand over Origen. According to sOAZ, the team rarely picks for laning phase and picks “80% for teamfights.” In this case, he has admitted that a strategy of picking strong lane counters to snowball could work well against them if a team doesn’t make mistakes. Given Flash Wolves’ own tendencies of snowballing through mid lane to defeat KOO Tigers, this seems the most likely option for success.

The other opportunity comes from Teleport. As KT demonstrated, taking multiple global abilities hits Origen where they live. Origen excel when it comes to pushing out side waves with multiple Teleports to sneak objectives. Denying them globals was a smart decision from the Korean team to shut down Origen.

As of yet, the Flash Wolves haven’t demonstrated the finesse necessary to execute a massive global strategy, but that doesn’t mean they can’t. Often, when a team struggles in rotational play, they can compensate by taking multiple global abilities to play reactively. If an opposing player appears near an objective, a Teleport can allow teams to fudge their rotational play to meet them for a contest.

Strong vision control is necessary for strong Teleport play around objectives. SwordArt has often been praised for his vision control, and the Flash Wolves have the third highest wards placed per minute after KT Rolster and EDward Gaming at 3.61. They also have the highest wards cleared per minute at 1.28, suggesting that FW at least have some understanding of their opposition’s warding habits. Adding Teleport could just be the final step necessary to take three games from Origen.

Origen overall have demonstrated a much stronger grasp of global play, and it seems unlikely that Flash Wolves will best them at their own game as KT did.

Conclusion

Though all signs point to an Origen victory, the Flash Wolves have shown surprising resilience. With poor early games and an emphasis on mid-to-late game teamfighting and control, Origen and the Flash Wolves are stylistically similar, and the games will come down to whether one team can get a surprise advantage early or out-rotate the other in the mid-to-late game.

Origen have the better tools to control objectives, but the Flash Wolves still have surprising power that they’ve already demonstrated against another team with an inconsistent early game: KOO Tigers. If NL gets a long range carry, Flash Wolves can still find the fights they need after snowballing mid lane.

The more likely course of this series will be Origen using side wave control and Teleport more efficiently to take objectives from under Flash Wolves’ nose. Flash Wolves might still meet their rotation game with heavy vision and vision denial, but Origen overall seem more crisp after 15 minutes.

Origen likely out class Flash Wolves position-for-position, but they have a chance of putting up a fight in jungle, mid lane, and support with relatively similar skill levels. If Flash Wolves surprise Origen with what KOO Tigers’ Jeong “NoFe” Nochul described as colorful and unique individual play, I can see this series going to five games. I just don’t doubt Origen’s ultimate victory.

Kelsey Moser is a staff writer for theScore eSports. You can follow her on Twitter.