Hi, everyone! Welcome (or welcome back if you’re a returning reader) to my blog and to my cast assessment for SEASON 40 of Survivor! This is my ninth and likely final season of Power Rankings for the time being, as I’ve been increasingly prioritizing work and school in my life (which makes sense!). So, I hope you’re all ready for one last hurrah!

With only a few days to go until the premiere, it’s better late than never to post this, right? If you’ve been living under a Survivor rock for the past few months, Season 40 is entitled Winners at War and features 20 Survivor winners battling it out in Fiji to claim a second (or third in Sandra’s case) crown and the TWO MILLION dollar prize that comes with it. There are some… interesting twists to this season as well — Edge of Extinction is back, and while I’m not particularly jazzed about that, at the very least, the new Fire Tokens twist that allows the players to bargain with each other and purchase advantages and comfort items might add another interesting layer to EoE. Hopefully it works better than it did in its original season!

While I plan to do Power Rankings as usual with this season, for my pre-game cast assessment I’m just going to lay down my thoughts on everyone individually!

Starting off with the Sele tribe (Sele means “to cut” in Fijian), we have Boston Rob, Natalie, Ethan, Parvati, Ben, Michele, Danni, Denise, Jeremy, and Adam!

As if we couldn’t get enough of Boston Rob Mariano last season on Island of the Idols, he’s playing AGAIN for his FIFTH TIME this season, which is monumental in and of itself. First playing on Survivor Marquesas (Season 4), and returning for All-Stars (8), Heroes vs Villains (20) and winning Redemption Island (22), I think that Rob is going to have a MASSIVE target on his back, not only because of his reputation, but because he’s out here playing with his wife, Amber! That would terrify me because that’s one person who Rob and Amber will always trust more than me. I think the best thing for either one of their games is for one to get voted out ASAP. I think it’ll also be really interesting to see how Rob’s social game will be with so many players being his good friends. You’ve got the so-called ‘Poker Alliance’ with Jeremy, Kim, Tyson, and Adam. You’ve got past relationships with Parvati, Ethan, and Sandra. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rob left that all at the door and played a ruthless game, but I would honestly be surprised if he made it far. Boston Rob is a quintessential Survivor legend, and yes, you totally could use him to get you further, but at some point he would start to use you. I would love to see Rob do well, but I can’t imagine that with two million bucks on the line, these other winners would take that chance.

Going in to this season, Natalie Anderson is one of my more underrated winners. She played a really great back half of San Juan Del Sur (29) after Jeremy’s elimination, making some key moves that cemented her win, namely orchestrating the blindsides of Jon and Alec and of course, the epic idol play at the final 5 that blindsided Baylor, all without receiving a single vote against her all season. I think that Natalie has what it takes strategically to win again, but I’m curious to see how she’ll do socially. Natalie is definitely likable, but I think that a lot of the really strong social players are on Sele and that could be tough for Natalie to work with. I might be reading her totally wrong, though! I’m overall very interested to see how Natalie fares out there!

Boy, am I ECSTATIC to see Ethan Zohn back. An all-around good dude who has an amazing cancer survivor story, Ethan is one of my top picks to win. He’s going to have an amazing social game and hopefully a great physical game as well. The game has changed a lot since his winning season, Africa (3), and his short jaunt on All-Stars, but Ethan is a massive fan of the show and I’m positive that he’ll be able to adapt easily to a faster-paced game. Another really interesting thing with Ethan will be his past relationship with Boston Rob, as well as his current bond with Adam Klein — which they’ve apparently kept hidden very well! I would not be surprised in the least to see Ethan go deep, and I really hope he does! Ethan is one of two winners on this season who I haven’t watched at least one of their seasons… so I’m really excited to watch him play!

The Black Widow is BACK! Parvati Shallow is one of the most notorious women to ever play (read: slay) the game, having first played a flirty, under-the-radar game in Cook Islands (13), winning Micronesia by leading the most deadly women’s alliance ever (16), and almost-winning Heroes vs Villains (20). Parv was 23 in Cook Islands and 36 at the time of filming Winners at War… and 13 years can totally change a person — she’s now a new mom, and married to former Survivor Samoa player John Fincher. We’ve seen her be flirty and cutthroat, but now, in her words, she can be the ‘lovable mother’. Whether that will be a facade that hides her innate ruthlessness, or she truly wants to play a more heroic game, it will be an uphill battle for Parv regardless. That said, I think she has all of the necessary tools in her arsenal that will allow her to succeed in what will be her toughest competition yet.

I am so stoked to see Ben Driebergen back again. He had a really inspiring story in Heroes vs Healers vs Hustlers (35) in which he battled his inner demons and outfoxed his tribemates, finding multiple Hidden Immunity Idols and winning the first ever automatic fire-making challenge. That said, a lot of people still give Ben flack over those achievements — and while I can understand that, I think that there’s a whole lot of merit in playing from the bottom with your back against the wall and getting resourceful. Like Ethan, Ben seems like a genuinely good person and I think that will serve him very well on this tribe of social butterflies. If he can connect really well with his tribemates and be a good challenge asset, I think Ben should have no trouble making it deep into the game. He’s out here to prove that he deserved his win (like many other winners), and I’m positive that he will be successful in doing so even if he doesn’t win this season.

MY QUEEN HAS RETURNED!!!!! I honestly never thought I would ever see my FAVORITE winner and player, Michele Fitzgerald, back on my tv. And boy, am I effing READY TO GO! The overarching theme from Michele’s pre-game press is that she’s still torn up about the debate over whether she or Aubry should have won Kaoh Rong (32). Of course, Aubry played a fantastic game, but ultimately Michele’s social game won in the end. Sometimes that doesn’t translate to tv or even to the jury that well, but to be able to win like that is a massive achievement in my book. For something a little more personal.. Michele was my first winner pick for the blog, and I probably wouldn’t have continued with it past Kaoh Rong if I hadn’t had so much fun with the season and the blog because I loved following her gameplay. Michele is honestly one of my life inspirations and heroes and my dream is someday to meet her and tell her that in person! I’m excited to officially pick her as my winner again — she’s going to have a fire inside her that will drive her to continue to play a phenomenal social and challenge game while amping up her strategic potential and cutting throats when she has to. I think that everyone’s going to fall in love all over again with her and I am so hoping she pulls it out. Even if she doesn’t win, I’m so happy I get to watch her play again. She was my first winner pick on the blog, and she poignantly is my last. Everything comes full circle, and it will be completed with she wins again! #Winchellionaire

Danni Boatwright is the first returnee from her winning season, Guatemala (11) since Steph returned for Heroes vs Villains. It’s taken so long, but I’m glad it was Danni who came back! A totally under-the-radar winner notorious from hiding her strategy from the cameras, she’s a big enigma out here. Now that she’s a mom, I imagine that she’ll be able to connect with fellow moms out here, but she’s also a massive physical and social threat. Jeff Probst named her his sleeper pick to win, and I have to agree. Even though it’s been 29 seasons since she played, she’s still a big fan of the show and I think that she’s got the skills to use the faster-paced game to her advantage. Plus, she’s in Fiji and not in the hellholle that Guatemala was, so that’s a great thing for Danni as well. I loved watching her in Guatemala, and I’m really excited to watch her again this season!

DENISE STAPLEY!!! I loved watching her win Philippines (24) after the brutal fourth-place finish of my fave and winner pick Malcolm, and I’m so happy that she’s back again. Sporting a flashier and more awesome haircut, she’s ready to rumble with this pack of all-winners. She’s the oldest winner out here at 48, but I don’t think that’s going to matter at all. I think that she’s going to be a social and physical beast this season and I’d be surprised if she didn’t find herself in a good majority alliance quickly. Hopefully this blue tribe won’t fare as poorly as her original Matsing tribe in Philippines did — Denise had to go to EVERY TRIBAL COUNCIL in her season, only being immune from elimination ONCE. And yet, she survived all the way to the end and won. That speaks to her impressive gameplay, and I think her tribemates would be foolish to underestimate her and to not utilize her. I think Denise can totally go deep, and I hope she does!

Jeremy Collins, winner of Survivor Cambodia (31) is a total force to be reckoned with. He has such a great motivation in that he’s always playing for his family, and that drove him to the win against a very hungry competition. Cambodia saw the game of Survivor evolve and Jeremy adapted with ease, playing an almost unexpected fantastic social game to complement a phenomenal physical and strategic game culminating in a unanimous vote to win. I think that it’s safe to say that expectations are high for Jeremy, and especially now that he’s had two more kids since Cambodia he’ll be even more driven to win. I would be surprised if he was targeted early on — especially on Sele it seems like he’ll have a lot to work with. I’ll be really interested to see if he sticks with his meat shield strategy (probably aligning with maybe some combination of Rob, Ethan, Parv, Ben, and Danni) or goes a different route. No matter what, Jeremy is always entertaining and I’m excited to watch him play again!

Lastly on Sele we have Adam Klein, winner of Millennials vs Gen X (33), another one of my all-time favorite winners! I relate to Adam and his Survivor fandom so much and I’m so excited to live through his experience of playing alongside his idols. You’d think he would be totally starstruck to have the likes of Parvati, Boston Rob, Ethan, and Danni on his tribe, but I think that he’ll use that to his advantage. Like Michele he also talked a lot in his pre-game interviews about having a chip on his shoulder because people didn’t think he played too well (I disagree of course!) and that he only won because of his sob story… but he’s going to prove all of the critics wrong. He’s going to make his idols think that he’s just some puppy that they can string along, but then Adam’s going to strike and the student will become the master. I really hope that happens… I want Adam to go deep because I think he has the skills to do so and deserves it!

The Dakal tribe (Dakal means “gun” in Fijian) is comprised of Tony, Wendell, Amber, Kim, Sophie, Nick, Sarah, Yul, Sandra, and Tyson!

Time to break out your Llama to English dictionary, because Tony Vlachos, winner of Survivor Cagayan (28) is back again! After a disastrous venture in Game Changers, Tony returns with a lot learned from his last time out. I got the vibe from his pre-game press that he was a bit more subdued… less promising to have Idol clones and Spy Bunkers than what seems to be a focus on improving his social game, and I really like that. When a winner as ubiquitous as Tony is willing to try to play a different game, it really speaks to me that they are passionate about the game and it shows a depth of ability. I really hope Tony pulls it off and goes deep… if not, hopefully we will be treated to hilarious antics on the Edge of Extinction!

Up next is another one of my favorite winners, Wendell Holland from Ghost Island (36)! Famous for being the winner of the first ever tie vote at Final Tribal Council, Wendell’s social strategy won out over his number one ally and rival Domenick’s strategic control of the game. Not only was he great at playing Survivor, he was also a whole lot of fun to watch, and I expect that we’ll be entertained by Wendell again this season. He’s going to be a fantastic social and challenge threat, and though I think he’s going to stand out a bit on Dakal, there are other people he can use as shields — namely Tony, Sarah, Tyson, Sandra, and Yul. It’ll be interesting to see who he aligns with! Wendell’s another one of my faves and I really hope he does well again!

Amber Mariano is the other winner whose winning season I haven’t watched (I haven’t watched The Australian Outback either), so I’m excited to see her back. After winning 32 seasons ago (wow) in All-Stars (8) and getting married to Boston Rob, Amber returns to a very different Survivor game. Idols, advantages, and crazy twists are in store for her, but I am confident in her ability to adapt to them — after all, she’s still bee watching the show and has more than likely talked at length with her husband about strategy. It’s going to be so weird but so interesting to see a married couple play Survivor when it’s not a Blood vs Water season. Like I said for Rob, for BOTH of them to be out here, albeit on different tribes, should be scary to everyone, but I think that Amber will have a far easier time mitigating her threat level because she isn’t her husband — you know, the one with the GIANT STATUE OF HIS HEAD — and so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Amber outlast Rob. She’s one of the big unknowns for me on this season which has me super exited!

Kim Spradlin-Wolfe is considered by many to be the most dominant single-season winner in history, with her absolutely phenomenal gameplay in One World (25). For me, One World was a lackluster season, but Kim’s win was far from lackluster and I am so beyond hyped to see what she brings to an all-star season. She has the potential to play at that caliber and I am sure she will rise to the occasion. Since One World, she got married and had three kids successively, which is no easy feat, so I think that Kim will have a lot more outside motivation and a more patient view on the game, which will come in very handy. Not only is she a master strategist and a social butterfly, but she’s also an extremely great challenge competitor. I think Kim could be in very early trouble because she’s that good, and if you ask me (and this goes for everyone), barring some insane foolhardy blunder, anyone going out early won’t tarnish their legacy — and this is super true for Kim.

Sophie Clarke is another winner who I LOVED on a season that I don’t like. South Pacific (23) was my second-ever season of Survivor (yeah, I started in the dark ages…) but Sophie being fierce, taking nobody’s crap, and playing an awesome strategic game that compensated for her lack of a social game really was cool to watch. Now that Sophie is a bit older and wiser I think that she’ll be able to work the social angle a lot better and that has me very excited. I feel like she could definitely bond well with fellow analytical strategists like Kim and Yul as well as the dry humors of Sarah and Tyson, and I would be surprised if she’s an early target. I am so ready for her to roast everyone in her confessionals and play an even better game than last time.

Nick Wilson is the most recent winner, having won David vs Goliath (37), one of my favorite seasons! While Nick very well could have been the first boot in that season, it goes to show you that no matter what, luck can prove to be a powerful force in Survivor. Nick also had a lot of skill too — his alliance-forming and loyalty-building skills were amazing, and his challenge wins were nothing to scoff at. Nick played a humble yet skillful game, and I am hoping we see more of that this time around. I worry that he might be an early target because he doesn’t have the connections everyone else does since he’s a recent winner, but I think that if anyone can bounce back from a poor start, it’s Nick.

I’ve always struggled with my perception of Sarah Lacina in Survivor. I liked her in Cagayan, but I liked more people more. She wasn’t my fave when she won Game Changers (34), but her win was absolutely impressive and deserved. Her deadpan delivery and ruthless gameplay didn’t often translate to entertaining tv, but it took me a good while to simmer on her win and realize that I actually liked her a lot more than I thought I did… even though she took out a lot of my faves like Andrea and Sierra! So… all that’s to say that I’m excited to see Sarah again. I think that there’s a lot of interesting dynamics at play with her since she’s on a tribe with Sandra and Tony. I hope the Game Changers crew sticks together, because they could do some serious damage. Sarah might be in a lot of early trouble though as evidenced by a lot of pre-game press revealing that many players already want her out because she was so good in Game Changers. She played like a cop in Cagayan and a criminal in Game Changers. What’s next? Terrorist? Man, I don’t know, but whatever persona Sarah takes on this time, I think she’ll find something to work with. I had her pegged as the first boot in Game Changers and look where that got me… so I’m gonna say that she does better than that at least!

OH BOY YUL KWON IS BACK THIS IS NOT A DRILL!!!! Cook Islands (season 13) (despite the race wars twist) is one of my top 5 seasons, and I absolutely love Yul for his kindness, love for the game, and amazing gameplay. Yul is going to be a threat because everyone knows that he’s a gamer, but now that Yul is older and a dad, that might change peoples’ perceptions of him. I think that he has a lot to work with on this tribe, and there will be a lot of people who will appreciate what he brings to the game. Especially with the Edge of Extinction’s return and the addition of Fire Tokens, I think that if anyone can adapt and utilize the twists this season to their advantage, it’s Yul. I also am excited to see a Yul unfettered by the pressure to represent his community like he was on Cook Islands. He has a lot more freedom to play his own game, I think, and I for one am hyped to see a different side to Yul. I’m also hoping he goes deep because he said that if he wins, he’d donate the winnings towards ALS relief in honor of Jonathan Penner (who played on Cook Islands, Micronesia, and Philippines) and his wife, Stacy — the latter of whom is currently suffering from ALS — and would ask CBS to match that donation. It’s a very heartwarming idea and I for one hope that it comes to fruition (that is, if Michele doesn’t win!)

THE QUEEN STAYS QUEEN, ADIOS! No matter if Sandra wins again, is first boot, or anywhere in between, Sandra Diaz-Twine is THE QUEEN. The only two-time winner in Survivor history (that likely changes in a few months!), having won Pearl Islands (7) and Heroes vs Villains (20), Sandra returns to the game after falling pre-merge in Game Changers and her stint as an Idol on Island of the Idols. She’s had a LOT of time to talk with Boston Rob… and to be honest, I think that’s going to be the start of Sandra’s downfall. I think Rob is going to try to use everything he can against Sandra instead of working with her, and I think it would be pretty awesome to see a Sandra vs Rob showdown. If she does, by some miracle, make it to the merge, I think she could be dangerous. Could she play up the angle of “I’ve already won twice, nobody’s gonna vote for me again”? Will her “as long as it ain’t me” strategy work again? I have my doubts, but in any case, I am just happy to see Sandra back on my tv. I wish we saw more of her in IoI, so this is a happy medium for me!

Last but certainly not least is another one of my faves, Tyson Apostol. After an early merge exit in Tocantins and infamously voting himself out premerge in Heroes vs Villains, Tyson dominated the game in Blood vs Water (27), winning in a near-unanimous vote. Known for his humor and antics at camp and Tribal Council in his first two seasons, we saw a much more raw and emotional side of Tyson when he played with his then-girlfriend, now wife Rachel, and to be honest, it was my favorite of Tyson’s three outings. I think that he stands a very good chance to win again because he’s very good at masking his threat level and actually plays a way better social game than you’d expect. It also helps that he’s now a dad of two and can use that to connect with the many other parents out here. He also has a big connection with the ‘Poker Alliance’ between him, Rob, Kim, Jeremy, and Adam, so that could help him as well. 11 years later, Tyson’s fourth try at Survivor might just end up in another victory, and I for one would be elated to see that happen.

And there you have it! My thoughts on all 20 Winners at War. The battle starts Wednesday, February 12th at 8pm (7 central) with the premiere, aptly entitled “Greatest of the Greats”! I’m so hyped and no matter who wins, I’m so grateful that we’ve hit 40 seasons of the greatest reality show on tv. Here’s to another 40 more, and a fun last season of Power Rankings for me!

Hit me up on Twitter or comment below with your thoughts and winner picks!

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-Austin