Plastic & Climate: The Hidden Costs of a Plastic Planet

Amidst growing concern about the impacts of plastic on the oceans, ecosystems, and human health, there’s another largely hidden dimension of the plastic crisis: plastic’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. This report examines each of these stages of the plastic lifecycle to identify the major sources of greenhouse gas emissions, sources of uncounted emissions, and uncertainties that likely lead to underestimation of plastic’s climate impacts. The report compares greenhouse gas emissions estimates against global carbon budgets and emissions commitments, and it considers how current trends and projections will impact our ability to reach agreed emissions targets. It also compiles data, such as downstream emissions and future growth rates, that have not previously been accounted for in widely used climate models. This accounting paints a grim picture: plastic proliferation threatens our planet and the climate at a global scale.

Read the full report: here.

Read the four-page executive summary: here.

Read the press release: here.

Key Figures:

Figure 1: Annual Emissions from the Plastic Lifecycle

Figure 2: Annual Plastic Emissions to 2050

Figure 6: World Plastic Demand May Increase Significantly

Figure 8: Emissions Associated with Natural Gas Extraction

Figure 9: Potential Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ohio River Valley Petrochemical Buildout

Figure 10: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from US Industrial Sites that Produce Ethylene

Figure 18: Net CO2 Emissions from Plastic in the EU Could Grow by 76% by 2050

Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Introduction

Chapter 2: Methodology

Chapter 3: Calculating the Climate Costs of Plastic

Estimates of Cradle-to-Resin Emissions Rates

Previous Efforts to Measure Plastic’s Lifecycle Impact

Plastic Production Growth Estimates 2015–2100

Estimating Plastic’s Impact on Global Carbon Budgets

Chapter 4: Extraction and Transport

The Origins of Plastic: Olefins

The Growth of Petrochemical Production

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Oil and Gas Production for Plastic Feedstocks

Natural Gas in the United States

Greenhouse Gases from Natural Gas Extraction

Hydraulic Fracturing

Venting and Flaring

Leaking Tanks and Pipelines

Transport

Water Hauling

Waste Disposal

Other Traffic

Pipeline Construction and Compressor Stations

Land Disturbance

Natural Gas Storage and Disposal

Gas Processing

Case Study: Pennsylvania

Extraction and Transport Emissions Gaps

Chapter 5: Refining and Manufacture

Challenges of Calculating Emissions from Refining and Manufacture

Emissions Sources

Steam Cracking

Case Study: US Ethylene Production and Projected Expansions

Resin Manufacturing

Plastic Product Manufacturing

Reducing Emissions in Plastic Manufacturing

Chapter 6: Plastic Waste Management

“End of Life” is Not End of Impact

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Plastic Waste Disposal

Waste Incineration and Waste-to-Energy

Landfilling

Recycling

Other Known Unknowns

An Alternative Path: Zero Waste

Chapter 7: Plastic in the Environment

Plastic in the Ocean

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Plastic: Hawaii Case Study

Virgin vs. Aged Plastic

Physical Features

Estimating Direct Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ocean Plastic

Potential Impact of Microplastic on the Oceanic Carbon Sink

Reducing the Climate Impact of Plastic in the Environment

Chapter 8: Findings and Recommendations

Plastic and Cumulative Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Lifecycle Plastic Emissions Relative to Mitigation Scenarios and Carbon Budget Targets

Recommendations

High-Priority Strategies

Complementary Interventions

Low-Ambition Strategies

False Solutions

Chapter 9: Conclusions

Endnotes