The vastness, vagaries and complexity of the capital make forecasting a perilous game. Things that seemed both inevitable and desirable just a few decades ago have turned out to be entirely wrong. Yet neglecting to peer into tomorrow carries risks of its own, not least a failure to identify and lessen risk itself. Design and infrastructure consultants Atkins have been applying themselves to the task of anticipating how the city needs to evolve from now until 2050. A document entitled Future Proofing London is the wide-ranging and cogent result.

The aim is to sustain what the report terms London’s “competitive advantage” as a world city. Valuably, it sees the pursuit of this goal as closely aligned with lessening the inequality and enhancing the greenness of the metropolis. The opposite outcomes would in each case be menaces to London. Four threats altogether are listed, the first of which is - very topically - a failure to meet housing need. Neglecting to foster economic diversity completes the quartet.



Ignore these risks, Atkins says, and you end up with a London that’s angrier, dirtier, more volatile and less equipped than it should be to innovate and adapt to shifts in the global economy. Address them, and you can build a city of social equity, environmental congeniality and resilient business agility. I’ll take option two, if that’s OK. So, how do we ensure its delivery?

The report argues that “the interplay between infrastructure and social and economic development” will be the key factor. The strength of governance is seen as crucial, with a good co-ordination between the mayor, the boroughs and national government and with neighbouring authorities outside Greater London essential.



Great stress is placed on the capacity of the planning process to shape that interplay in the ways required: to ensure that investment nurtures new industries, improves the urban environment, creates opportunities to share in the common wealth and generate the homes that Londoners on low and middle incomes need.



There’s a strong theme throughout of energising Outer London, culminating in a proposal for a “major strategic programme” to intensify housing, add orbital rail links, repurpose retail and office space and nourish new kinds of “micro-manufacturing”. The authors urge that transport, housing and other public investments be “targeted directly at those who are currently the least well served,” rather than reinforcing London’s present spatial structure. The whole thing is rich in insights and ideas. I’ve particularly warmed to the idea of the London Plan’s development Opportunity Areas being thought of as “curated clusters” whereby the “big bang” approach to major regeneration schemes gives way to a more democratic, flexible and community-minded approach, respectful of existing local culture.



You might describe the 130 pages of Future Proofing London as a sort of manifesto, one that emanates from a part of the private sector essential to the city’s evolution. As you’d expect it takes no side politically, though it is critical of both the existing London Plan, the separate, longer-term London Infrastructure Plan and the relationship between them. It also recommends, as part of a green infrastructure approach, a “pan London strategic review of the Green Belt” so that some parts of it could be used for housing and more of it be made accessible to the public - a sensible view that terrifies all types of politicians, a notable exception being David Lammy.



What is indisputable - and pretty much common ground across the ideological spectrum - is that the scale and pace of change in London are so large that urgent, imaginative action is vital. Using projections supplied by Oxford Economics, Atkins reckons the population boom will be even greater than the London Plan expects, passing 11 million in 20 years’ time and reaching 12 million by 2050. Economic growth is predicted to be slower than in the past 15 years, but still rapid enough for there to be 6.3 million jobs in London by 2026, which is 14 years sooner than anticipated by the infrastructure plan.



There is an art to managing such spectacular success and this piece of work is a rewarding tutorial on how it might be mastered. Read the report for yourself here. Offer your comments and thoughts to either Richard or Janet in Atkins’s London office via fpc@atkinsglobal.com.

