Using the NFL Draft to Identify Top Fantasy Rookies

Every year after the NFL Draft, I do a top-10 fantasy rookies article, but things have been so crazy here at the MockOut headquarters that this year’s got lost in the shuffle. Or maybe I’m still trying to recover from “my guy” John Kelly being drafted into the worst RB situation in the league…? Regardless! I’m going to post it as it was originally written (with comments in bold parentheses) showcasing my opinions on this year’s group of fantasy rookies, even though some of my predictions are already hilariously wrong.

I did well with the big risk I took last season, hyping Evan Engram as a fantasy target way before the rest of the world caught on to him. Let’s see if I get anything that right this season.

QBs as Fantasy Sleepers? From the 2018 QB Class, Yes.

10. Ronald Jones, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Yes, I have been paying attention to the preseason, and I know he hasn’t exactly endeared himself to the coaching staff. But Jones is good. I believe Peyton Barber is replaceable, and Jones is very very good. I think, in the long run, talent will win out here, and Jones will own the majority of the carries by the end of the year. I can see a Mixon-esque rookie season, where he wasn’t a big part of the offense early, then showed what he could do with a bigger role after the midway point.

9. Sam Darnold, QB New York Jets

I don’t think Darnold will be a top-12 QB this season, which makes him useless in most leagues. But in any 2 QB or SuperFlex leagues, I think Darnold could be a decent producer, throwing to an underrated WR corps. If Enunwa can return from last season’s injury (and Kearse can return from this year’s injury) and regain their old form, Darnold won’t be short on weapons. He’ll throw his picks (I think he might lead the league in picks, actually) but he’ll get you some TDs in plus matchups.

8. Michael Gallup, WR Dallas Cowboys

This is kind of the opposite of the RoJo situation, where I don’t love Gallup the prospect, but his opportunity is undeniable. With Dez leaving town, someone is going to have to step up and become Dak’s #1 outside target. That offense can’t run through Cole Beasley forever. Since Terrance Williams hasn’t done it in the 4 seasons he’s been there, it seems likely that Gallup could be that player, or at least get the necessary targets to see if he is capable of becoming that player.

7. Dante Pettis, WR San Francisco 49ers

I was much higher on Pettis leading up to the draft than most were, and think Pettis found himself in a really good situation. He can play the Sanu role in Shanahan’s offense, and probably expand upon what Sanu was able to do with it himself by the end of year 1. He has silky smooth athleticism and surprising long speed, which should allow him the opportunity to get some long TDs. While opposing defenses focus on Goodwin’s blazing speed on one side of the field, Pettis can work the middle and long patterns on the opposite side.

6. D.J. Moore, WR Carolina Panthers

As a long-time Funchess hater, I believe Carolina drafted Moore to be their #1 WR now, and in the future. He showed out in the preseason, looking like a game-changer. My big concern with him is that he is competing with Olsen (update: not any more) McCaffrey, and Samuel as well, and they all work the area of the field where I expect Moore to excel as well. So I might have him ranked a bit high here, given it could be slow going early. But if he can usurp Funchess sooner rather than later, he can offer a solid point floor, without a super high ceiling.

5. Baker Mayfield, QB Cleveland Browns

This is my riskiest projection, but there’s no point in making projections if you don’t stand by your beliefs… even the unpopular ones. If Baker can wrest the starting job away from Tyrod by week 4—no easy feat—I think he can put up weekly QB1 numbers. I haven’t been so impressed with a rookie QBs preseason performance since Russell Wilson. He was decisive, accurate, and can produce stats in a hurry. Now give him Landry, Gordon, Callaway, Duke, and Njoku, and you have a great QB with elite weapons. If he were starting from day 1, I would rank him higher. But every week Tyrod starts (update: and doesn’t lose games) Baker’s fantasy stock slips a little.

4. Anthony Miller, WR Chicago Bears

Anthony Miller and D.J. Moore are similar in that they were athletic playmakers who have shown in the preseason that the pro game is not too fast for them. The big difference for me, and the reason I have Miller two spots above Moore, is competition and playcalling. Nagy will bring his innovative offense from KC, and Miller can fit nicely into the featured Tyreek role. He will scheme ways to get the ball into his playmakers’ hands. Additionally, while the Bears added a lot of pass catchers this offseason, they are all question marks. Everyone is on even footing, trying to establish themselves in this offense. I think Miller will step up and also offer a good, safe floor by season’s end.

3. Royce Freeman, RB Denver Broncos

And with Miller off the board, only the top-3 RBs remain (sorry, Calvin Ridley fans… you know where I stand on him as a prospect…) Most people probably have Royce ahead of Kerryon, and that makes sense. When your only competition for touches is Devontae Booker (update: and Lindsay, I guess!) who I have a Funchess-like relationship with (never liked him coming out of college or in the pros) then he should have a strong role immediately. I don’t love Denver’s offensive prospects this year, and I don’t know if their O-line really jibes with what Royce is good at, but he should have a major role on a competent offense soon enough, and that is good for third place.

2. Kerryon Johnson, RB Detroit Lions

I know I am way higher on Kerryon than most, but I really feel like things will turn around this year for the Lions ground game (update: ruh roh! this prediction is aging… poorly!) and that it will feature Kerryon Johnson. I don’t think Blount is really a risk to vulture too many TDs, and think Kerryon will render him pretty much useless between the 20s by week 4. Riddick is a good receiver, but any time he is in the game, that telegraphs to the defense that it is a pass play. Kerryon is also a great receiver, but with him in the offense doesn’t tip their hand so obviously. Finally, the Lions should get more O-line health, and drafted run-game extraordinaire Frank Ragnow in the first round this year. I expect a 3-down role, including goal line, by the end of the season, and think he is capable of a top-15 RB season in his rookie year.

1. Saquon Barkley, RB New York Giants

There is no reasonable list of the top fantasy rookies that doesn’t end with Saquon as #1, so I’ll be brief with the explanation. He is a near-perfect RB prospect in my mind. His power and speed are unreal, his agility defies physics. He has good vision and a feel for defenders. He has a receivers hands, and is built so thick in his lower body, he is probably less of an injury risk (as much as a RB can be, anyway…) The Giants will feature him all over the field, in every game situation. He is a top-10 fantasy pick this year, and will be in the discussion for #1 overall next year. Barkley is the dream fantasy RB.