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Whatsapp Australian Federal Police (AFP) guard US$525 million worth of crystal methamphetamine and heroin after smashing a Hong Kong-based international drugs syndicate in Sydney on July 31, 2012.

The drug ice has dominated news headlines in recent months, prompting commentators and politicians to declare that methamphetamine use has reached 'epidemic' proportions. However, that perspective is based on sensational reporting rather than data, a leading drug researcher tells Counterpoint.

Despite a barrage of media coverage, ice use is not increasing in Australia. In fact, it may be decreasing, according to Associate Professor John Fitzgerald, a sociologist and drug expert at the University of Melbourne.

That increase is not a measure of how much of the drug is around, it's actually a measure of how intensive the policing is.

'We have a range of data sets that we routinely draw upon to get an understanding of drug trends,' he says. 'Those data sets tell us that we are actually returning to levels of use that we had in 2007. The data point that people have focused on is the idea that drug use has doubled between 2010 and 2013.'

Arrests did increase from around 10,000 in 2011 to around 20,000 in 2013/2014, but those were mainly 'consumer' arrests involving users rather than dealers, says Fitzgerald, noting that these sorts of statistics are notoriously unreliable.

'I recently gave this evidence at the Parliamentary Joint Committee Into Methamphetamine Use,' he says. 'Drug crime statistics are inherently problematic because they are discovery crimes. If you put more police out there you are going to find more drug offenders.

'When we look at a trend over time and we see many more arrests of drug users, you have to be very careful interpreting it. That increase is not a measure of how much of the drug is around, it's actually a measure of how intensive the policing is.'

Similarly, increased arrests have led to more people undergoing drug treatment for methamphetamine. Again, says Fitzgerald, the statistics do not mean we are experiencing an epidemic.

'In the space of two years [2011-2013] we doubled the amount of amphetamine users we were arresting. That's insane because we didn't see a proportional change in how many dealers we were arresting—there was a targeting of drug users.

'Quite rightly we put into place the drug diversion initiative. We don't want to throw these users in jail because it's counterproductive. They have a health issue, we don't want to treat them as if it was a crime issue. There are better outcomes if you divert them into drug treatment.

'That is what happened—a significant proportion of people who were arrested for amphetamine consumer offences were diverted off to drug treatment.

'When people first look at the arrest statistics they think, "Oh my God, look at all those arrests, there must be an epidemic!"

'The second thing is they look at the treatment numbers and they go, "Oh my God! We must have an epidemic." We shouldn't interpret drug treatment data as an indicator of the natural prevalence of the problem.'

Related: On thin ice—shortfall in rehab places for users

The National Drug Strategy Household Survey, which has been conducted since 1993, shows the proportion of the public that has tried amphetamines has remained remarkably stable at around 7 per cent.

Even in terms of recent use, the percentage of the population that reports having used methamphetamines in the last 12 months has actually dropped from 4 per cent in 1998 to around 2 per cent today.

Of those who admitted to using any kind of amphetamine in the past 12 months, around 25 per cent said ice was the drug they had used most often. In 2010, that number was reported as much lower—just 12 per cent. Yet even this piece of data comes with a caveat.

'There is a clue in that data,' says Fitzgerald. 'There is an asterisk next to that data [in the report] which says be careful of using because it has a very high level of error associated with it.

'That asterisk was not included when the Australian Crime Commission cited that data—they didn't include the 2007 data point and they certainly didn't include the caveat given to the 2010 data point. That's one of the big sources of our problem with the way we understand ice.'

If you or somebody know needs help, contact Lifeline on 13 11 14.

No Ice 'epidemic' : Drug expert Listen to this episode of Counterpoint to hear Associate Professor John Fitzgerald dispute the belief that Australia is experiencing an 'ice epidemic'.

Counterpoint tackles key social, economic and cultural issues in Australian life, challenging assumptions and giving voice to new and seldom-heard commentators.

