'In politics, where electability usually trumps personal conviction, Scheer is essentially a prisoner, willing or otherwise, to the dominant Conservative party mindset on climate change. Put simply, conservatives by and large don’t believe it exists, is greatly exaggerated or is far too big and expensive a problem to fix.'

Andrew Scheer isn’t some homophobic Beelzebub bent on reversing the progress of gay people in this country. Nor is he an anti-abortion boogeyman who will set women’s reproductive rights back half a century should he ever be elected.

Of course, it’s entirely possible that Scheer isn’t comfortable with gay marriage. Certainly, he is personally against abortion. Yet there is a very good reason why the Conservative leader isn’t actually the product of his more imaginative progressive critics when it comes to actual governance: political expediency. Simply put, Andrew Scheer wants to become the next prime minister. Opposing gay rights and abortion is a terrific way of ensuring this won’t happen.

Scheer is a de facto climate change skeptic for the exact same reason. Again, the would-be next prime minister may well personally believe that humankind’s relentless emission of carbon dioxide is having an adverse effect on climate and therefore our very survival as a species. He might have David Suzuki’s oeuvre on his bedside table.

But in politics, where electability usually trumps personal conviction, Scheer is essentially a prisoner, willing or otherwise, to the dominant Conservative party mindset on climate change. Put simply, conservatives by and large don’t believe it exists, is greatly exaggerated or is far too big and expensive a problem to fix.

Last fall, in a bid to gauge priorities and preoccupations of the six parties represented in the House of Commons, Ekos Research Associates polled 7,006 people divided by party affiliation. They were asked to select a series of topics in order of importance, including restoring middle-class progress, ethics and accountability as well as taxes and debt.

Predictably enough, on the issue of climate change, the results had the knife-edge quality of a divisive policy question. Green party types were violently in agreement, with nearly 93 per cent of them believed tackling climate change should be a priority of the government over the next five years. NDP partisans and Liberals were only slightly less in agreement, with about 90 and 84 per cent saying as much, respectively.

The numbers then fall off a cliff. Only 30 per cent of self-described conservatives believe fighting climate change should be a priority. Meanwhile, amongst partisans of the People’s Party of Canada, the Conservatives biggest right-flank opponent, a scant 17 per cent said climate change should lead the next government’s legislative charge.

By no coincidence, PPC Leader Maxime Bernier recently said his government would “do nothing on climate change” and helpfully reminded Canadians that carbon dioxide helps plants grow.

Scheer has been notably more circumspect on the subject. The Conservative leader “always believed climate change was real,” as he told the Toronto Star in October, and says his government would have a plan to address the problem. Yet the party has yet to reveal any such policy and has demonized the Liberal carbon reduction plan as a wanton tax grab targeting this country’s put-upon middle- and working-classes.

Scheer has also said any carbon reduction plan should focus on global versus Canadian emissions. In doing so, a cynic might suggest he’s building a loophole for the carbon-heavy Alberta oilsands, which are also heavy in Conservative support.

Because climate change is invariably top of mind, Scheer is forced to address it. Yet when it actually comes to hashing out policy to tackle the problem he swears exists, he is hamstrung by the dominant conservative narrative on the subject. That is to say, climate change doesn’t exist, it is greatly exaggerated or is far too big and expensive a problem to fix.

In a way, Scheer is lucky. A strong majority of Canadians — 77 per cent, according to a 2017 Ipsos-Reid poll — are in favour of abortion. About the same number, according to a 2016 Angus-Reid Institute poll, support some form of euthanasia. On these issues, the Conservative leader is forced to stymie the considerable (and very vocal) minority within his own party who believe abortion and euthanasia are sins in roughly equal measure.

Such isn’t the case with climate change. While a significant number of Canadians believe climate change should be the main governmental priority, it remains a minority — 31 per cent, according to Ekos. For at least the next election cycle, Scheer’s narrative of forced dichotomy — either economy or environment — will likely have traction with a significant voting bloc beyond diehard conservatives.

Scheer is hardly the only politician to campaign by focus group. It is no coincidence that Bernier stopped railing against this country’s supply side dairy cartel in favour of Justin Trudeau’s “extreme multiculturalism and cult of diversity.” For his part, Trudeau is clearly listening to someone telling him to behave exactly as he did prior to becoming Liberal party leader in 2013 and prime minister in 2015, if only because three times a charm.

And in refusing to address climate change, by turning the defining subject of our time into a crass pocket book issue, Andrew Scheer is listening to his own sounding board. It’s a shame he’ll never admit it.

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