If the polls are to be believed, Boris Johnson is still on course to win a comfortable majority on Thursday. Five polls published over the weekend put the party ten points ahead of Labour on average — not only in line with the equivalent figure across all the polls last week but also consistent with the position at the start of the campaign. Such a lead would be expected to deliver 350 or so seats.

Two attempts at modelling the seat by seat variation in party performance using large poll samples came to much the same conclusion. One credited the Conservatives with 344 seats, the other with 345.

If the prime minister emerges with the 40-50 seat majority these figures imply the Conservatives would have