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It’s the great paradox of Canada’s auto industry: vehicle sales are at a record high but our share of North American auto production has fallen to a record low.

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And the industry’s future is murky at best, since production commitments made by General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC as part of their $13.7-billion bailouts are set to expire at the end of 2016, leaving them free to close plants and lay off workers if they see fit.

“We’re fighting an uphill battle,” said Don Walker, CEO of Canadian auto parts company Magna International Inc. “We need to focus on keeping the assembly plants we’ve got.”

There are many reasons for the decline of this once-great driver of Canada’s industrial heartland, but the simple explanation is that the industry’s centre of gravity has shifted southwards. Mexico and Tennessee have replaced Michigan and Ontario as the North American auto industry’s go-to factory locales.