The Angle Will Minnesota United FC Be the Worst Team in the History of MLS? by Wes Burdine on 24 October 2016

Why fret yourself over the frustrations and disappointments of the current Loons season when you could start panicking about 2017? An off-handed comment from Sports Illustrated’s Grant Wahl has inspired new dimensions to Minnesota United fans’ #PANIC that were previously unheard of to this point.

In his regular Mailbag feature, Wahl responded to a tweet from @4rest4thetrees asking for a prediction on the over/under of wins for Minnesota United’s inaugural MLS season. Wahl’s response was dire to say the least (read the whole context here; trigger warning: auto-playing video):

“I can�t tell you how many coaches, GMs and agents there are who are saying Minnesota in its first year might be one of the worst teams in MLS history on the field…. Anyway, to answer your question, Chicago and Houston have the lowest number of wins in MLS at seven. Over/under for Minnesota in 2017 is five.”*

*Editor’s note: Wahl is saying that the lowest number of wins is seven this season, not all time. Numerous clubs have finished with fewer than seven wins.�DC United finished 2013 with only three wins, so even a five-win season would save Minnesota from being the worst team in MLS history.

A fire emoji has not yet been invented for such a take. Before the team has even signed a single player, the Loons are predicted to be the worst team in the history of the league. Now, in fairness, Grant’s opinion isn’t conjured ex nihilo. Rather, it’s based on�quite a few conversations he’s had with GMs and agents around the league, so I think it’s worth investigating�what’s going on here.

Let’s begin by recognizing�that they all may just be right: the Loons could certainly be absolutely terrible. Most likely, the best they can aim for is pushing for the last playoff spot. That’s not just a Minnesota issue, expansion teams struggle in every league, including MLS.

The question, though, is how does anyone know if they’ll be terrible or world beaters when they literally have no players for their MLS squad? There are two possibilities. The first is that in contrast to Atlanta United, Minnesota has been quiet�nay, mute. This has been by design: Manny Lagos will not answer any substantive questions about 2017 while the NASL season is going on. Though its perhaps coincidental, the Loons’ precipitous drop in results for the fall season followed the MLS announcement in August.

Meanwhile, Atlanta United made a splashy coaching hire in former Barcelona and Argentina manager, Tata Martino; they have an academy that’s already produced two homegrown signings, and is winning at youth levels; they have former Premier League�striker Kenwyne Jones and some kids you’ve never heard of. In addition, they have sold a lot of tickets.

That Grant Wahl mentions the attendance and atmosphere makes me suspect that part of the conversation comparing the two is not even about on the pitch preparation. I’m not even sure how a team with two players over the age 23 can be described as “look[ing] set to be competitive in season one on the field.” It is also worth noting that Kenwyne Jones, their only “name” signing, is a 32 year-old who has scored an average of 7.45 goals per season.

As has always been the case with Minnesota United, though, in the deafening silence created by their “no comments,” the narrative will be filled in for them. So, the expectations for the Loons entering the league are basement-level.

The other possibility (these aren’t either/or possibilities) for what these GMs and agents are basing this conjecture on is that these folks have a decent sense of what type of squad Manny Lagos is trying to build. They will have an idea of the money that Minnesota is looking to spend on players, what players they may be looking at, or what players they have looked over. These are not precise measurements, but they can often give a good approximation of what a team will look like. But are other league GMs really paying close attention to Minnesota as their own season goes on?

What Kind of Team Will They Be, Then?

So, what do we do with this apocalyptic prediction? On one hand, I think this conversation should be taken seriously. I would hope that this sort of talk would cause a fire to be burning underneath ownership and front office executives for the club. For as many gains they have had in the United era, they have still not completely succeeded: they are not selling their stadium out to capacity and they have only won one trophy for a 10 match spring season.

But I think it’s worthwhile looking at a few expansions for comparison. The Philadelphia Union, for example, have always had the smallest pockets in the league and their inaugural roster was�how do I say this gently�not good. Their leading goal scorer was Sebastien Le Toux and their big money signings were Danny Califf and Fred. This team still managed to get eight wins.

Or, look at the Portland Timbers. Their capture of Diego Valeri is often cited as the new gold standard for designated players: doesn’t break the bank, game-changing, and not an aging European. The Timbers are in many ways the most comparable expansion to Minnesota: longtime, rabid fan base, not a major market, and not big spenders. Portland did not start off with a stellar roster or a big name manager and yet they finished just outside the playoffs in their inaugural season.

I think what is happening here is that people are really having their heads turned by the hype of Atlanta. Do not get me wrong, Atlanta’s ticket sales, their smart and strategic academy moves, and their ambitious capture of Tata Martino are very impressive. But do we really think Atlanta is going to avoid the pitfalls of Orlando and NYCFC or any other expansion side who immediately wanted to make a splash (paging Toronto FC)?�Atlanta is making a lot of smoke, yes, but there is absolutely no reason to think there is a fire until you see what kind of team they have in February.

Of course, Minnesota is going to pale in comparison. No one has ever paid us any regard. We have two academies in our state and have one of the longest-running histories of sustained professional soccer in the country and yet the only expectations are for four horsemen to take the field in March.

I come out of this whole conversation with a few conclusions. The first is that mediocre squads do not necessarily equal apocalyptically bad results. Second, there is certainly reason to be skeptical of Minnesota United’s ability to compete year one. Third, the current skepticism is largely based on incomplete data sets. Fourth, the Colorado Rapids almost won the goddamned MLS Supporters Shield, everybody, so let’s just dispel the fiction once and for all that any observers (general managers, agents, writers, or fans) know what will happen in MLS; it is a crazy league.

Fifth, everybody #PANIC.

Tags: #PANIC, Grant Wahl, Minnesota United FC, MLS