Read: Collusion happened

If the Mueller report is truly the vindication that Trump claims, the lesson that Trump might take from it is the benefit of transparency and cooperation with investigations.

Imagine that Trump had never pressured Comey to drop his investigation into former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, or that he did, but stopped short of firing Comey. The FBI investigation would have continued along. Flynn would have likely been indicted, a black eye for the Trump administration, but a passing one. The Justice Department would have indicted GRU officers and employees of the Internet Research Agency for meddling in the 2016 election. That would have wounded Trump’s pride, since he reacts with fury to any suggestion that his 2016 victory was anything other than a product of his own personal greatness. But politically, its effects would have been ephemeral. Trump’s former campaign chair Paul Manafort would likely have been tried for financial crimes, but Trump could say that Manafort’s crimes all took place outside of his presidential campaign. More important, with no obstruction investigation, the president would mostly have escaped personal scrutiny. He and his staff would have been spared astronomical legal bills, and left able to concentrate on achieving his goals. The investigation would not have dominated the first two years of Trump’s presidency.

Of course, by the time Mueller was appointed, it was too late for most of this. But Ty Cobb, whom Trump hired into the White House in July 2017 to deal with the Mueller probe, tried the next best thing. Cobb’s repeated predictions of a speedy end to the investigation have been justly derided, but his overall strategy has been vindicated. Cobb argued that Trump had nothing to hide and should cooperate with Mueller, handing over whatever the special counsel wanted, speeding along the investigation to its conclusion. Trump never appeared happy with this approach; in less than a year, he had pushed Cobb out.

Read: Waiting in vain for the Mueller report

But if the end of the Mueller probe vindicated anyone, it was Cobb. It produced neither an indictment of the president nor a clear-cut charge that he had obstructed justice. While Cobb’s successor, Rudy Giuliani, was convinced that Mueller was laying a “perjury trap,” Mueller never even pushed that hard to interview Trump. Cobb, in March, said Mueller was not conducting a “witch hunt” as the president has alleged, and while Trump continues to employ the phrase, his exultation over Barr’s summary of Mueller’s findings suggests that Trump has swung around to agree with Cobb.

By fighting tooth and nail against the investigation, Trump both distracted himself from the normal business of the presidency (though realistically, he probably would have found another distraction) and gave the impression that he had something to hide. Trump’s approval in the Gallup poll has ticked up since Barr’s summary was released, but it remains at a weak 45 percent, and a Monmouth poll released Wednesday found Trump’s approval headed back downward.