HOT Hitters

I’ve got to leadoff with Young Joc Pederson who has gone 9 for his last 20 with an insane 6 long balls. Well, welcome to 2018 Mr. Joc. I was a big fan of Pederson’s going into last year, especially in OBP leagues. His struggles against righties and the depth in the LAD outfield has curbed his playing time. He’s cut his K rate below 15% and his swinging strike rate is under 9%! Previously known for his high K rates, he’s turned into a contact first guy. He still can’t hit lefties and usually sits vs them, so ride this streak but then you can kick him to the curb.

Eddie “Money” Rosario and Eduardo “Don’t call me Nunez” Escobar are at it again in the Twin Cities. They’ve combined to go 23 for their last 57 with a combined 10 homers and 20 RBI! I touched on Escobar in my recent FantasyPros article comparing him to Correa, which was more of a shot at Correa, but Escobar’s numbers have been legit to date. I’d hold him and keep playing him. Rosario has been a man possessed this year His metrics looked terrible in the first month. His ground ball rate has dipped 10% from last year and his hard contact and pull percentages are up.I still don’t like his plate discipline as he expands the zone too often and his swinging strike rate is up this year but his K rate is down. I’m holding but see if the market has come around on him. Maybe you can get a top 50 asset for him.

Matt Kemp is a on binge going hitting nearly .391 with 3 home runs this past week. Did he get back with Rhianna or something? I wrote about his insanely high BABIP the other day but the metrics say that while he’s been lucky in terms of average, he’s still been absolutely killing the ball and should improve on his power numbers. His injury history and the Dodgers depth may end up hurting his value, so look to sell, but don’t give him away. If there aren’t any takers, just ride out this healthy, hot streak.

Andrew Benintendi is locked in after a somewhat slow start. His power has jumped up hitting four HR and one steal this past week. Benintendi is putting the sophomore slump rumors to bed. His performance should cement him a spot in the two hole between Betts and Martinez. I’m not sure if there’s a better spot to be in in terms of hitting out of the two spot in all of baseball. The thoughts of 20/20 are there but he could be a legit 25/25 player with great counting stats. I envision him as a borderline top 30 player.

Dan’s be nibble, Dans be quick, Dansby hitting bombs out at Candlestick. That would have been better if this was 1990 and he played for the Giants. Anyways, should you go out and grab Dansby Swanson? The young SS is finding his power stroke with three home runs and seven RBI in the last seven days. Now with 6 on the season, he’s already matched his total from 2017. Is this for real? The power jump is real but everything else is not. His .358 BABIP will come down, and his K rate is over 28% with poor plate discipline to back that elevated rate up. He’s still only a 15 homer guy with .240-.250 average. Try to sell him to some Dansby believer, if not you can drop him.

Michael A. Taylor is actually hitting you guys! He’s got a .333 average with a homer and 3 steals this week. Michael A. Taylor or MAT as I call him may be feeling the heat with Eaton coming back from the DL and Juan “Wonder Kid” Soto producing like a veteran. The way Soto is playing, the Nationals have to leave him in the lineup, he’s even mashing lefties. Eaton is far from a pillar (Not Kevin) of health so Taylor and Eaton could platoon until the Nats are confident in Eaton’s health. Taylor’s not a great hitter, he strikes out way too much and has moderate power. He can be dropped in shallow leagues but in deeper leagues, hold for the steals.

Jose Martinez hit a couple bombs last night and now has 3 in the past week while hitting a blistering .556 with 8 RBI. Martinez is for real. He’s got great plate discipline and his zone contact is over 92% with a SwStr% of only 6.2%. He’s hitting the ball hard over 40% of the time and looks like a legit .300 hitter. He will be limited with his power numbers because of a near 50% ground ball rate. But he looks like a .300-20 hitter with a ton of RBI production in the middle of the Cardinals lineup.

Freezing Hitters

Jonathan Schoop has not been producing like many thought. I wrote a bust post on his in the offseason, is it too early to take the W on this? Probably, but he’s hitting .222 with no homers, one run, and no RBI this past week. On the season he’s hit five homers with a .224 average. This is the downside of a free swinger who doesn’t walk and has no speed. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s harboring an injury, his hard contact is down to a slap-hitting 22%. On a one-year deal, he could be traded to a contender which might help him reset. Right now, he can be dropped in shallow leagues

Francisco Lindor is only 2 for his last 19 with 2 runs and 1 RBI, no HR or steals. Sure, it’s a cold week, that’s all it is. Lindor’s a stud, he might be striking out a bit more but the rest of his metrics are even better than last year. He’s going to hit 30+ HR, steal 15 bases and hit .290-.300. Mmm Lindor truffles.

My young love, Ozzie Albies has fallen on hard times hitting only .111 with no homers, no steals, and just two runs. I mean, honestly you had to know he would slow down, right? Well he wasn’t going to hit 50+ homers. Everything looks fine with his profile. His K rate is below average, his walks are low but fine and his batted ball profile is solid. He’s been getting unlucky with a .276 BABIP. He’s more of a .310-.320 BABIP guy. He’s going to his .280-25-18.

Ozzie’s teammate Ender Inciarte is hitting under .100 with no homers or steals this past week and all of the sudden the Braves look weak! This is probably just a cold streak because they miss Ronald “GOD” Acuna but what’s going on? How can a guy with his speed and high contact rate hit .244? I mean, WTF?!? How about a .272 BABIP for a career .323 BABIP guy, that’s how. I’m buying Inciarte and you should too.

Evan Longoria’s move from the Desperate Housewives to San Francisco has not been great. He’s especially been bad this past week going 1 for 20! A career 9% BB rate currently sits at 3.7%. His power is still there with 10 homers on the season. He’s actually been hitter the ball harder with a higher percentage of quality contact compared to last year. I’d view his as a moderate buy right now as I expect the power to continue (25ish-HR) and his average to jumped back into the .260-.270 range. That’s not great for shallow leagues, but in 14-team and deeper leagues, try to buy low.

HOT Pitchers

Welcome back Sonny Gray! Gray has only given up 1 ER and allowed only 8 base runners in his last two starts. He’s even struck out a batter per inning in that stretch. What should we do with Sonny Gray? He was likely dropped in shallow leagues and in deep leagues, owners are finally looking on the bright side (get it?). I hate to break it to those owners, but I don’t trust it. His K/BB has actually gone down in this hot stretch while both contact and hard contact have gone up. Leave him on your wire or owners should try to sell if anyone believes he’s back.

Mike Foly*#)&$^$&z is not only having a great season, he’s given up only two ER and struck out an amazing 19 batters in his last two starts. So Folty has had a great season, no doubt, but if I’m an owner, I’m selling. Everything screams regression to me. Hard contact is up while BABIP and HR/FB are down. His O-Swing is down and the SwStr% remains below 10% while his K rate is at a career high. His walks have also gone up for the third straight season. He’s more of a 4.00 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP pitcher. Don’t give him away, but try to sell.

Dylan Covey just battled Chris Sale and the Red Sox (san Betts) and won! Bet you didn’t see that one coming. He’s now gone 11 IP with 0 ER, 1 R and 14 strikeouts this past week. He’s only had one bad start and that was at Cleveland, so it’s understandable. Covey was not a highly touted prospect and has never been a big strikeout pitcher, but he does get ground balls. He’s getting them to the tune of 61% this season. He’s doubled his sinker usage and basically eliminated his fastball, plus he’s throwing 2 mph faster than in 2017. I’m not saying he’s going to be great but could be useful in deeper leagues. He gets the Indians next so you may want to sit him for that one.

Trevor Bauer has 23 strikeouts in his last 13.2 IP and while wasn’t great two outings ago, he still struck out 11. Last night, Bauer struck out 12 Tigers in eight innings giving up only 1 ER. Is Bauer an Ace? His second half last year was ace-like and since the All-Star break last year, he’s thrown 169.2 innings with a 2.81 ERA and 202 strikeouts. AKA Ace. I’m not putting him in the top 10 SPs but with all the recent injuries to the top pitchers, there’s no reason to keep him outside the top 15 right now.

Garrett Richards is on a roll, striking out 16 and giving up only 2 ER in his last two starts. Plus, he’s healthy! I like Richards, he’s got great stuff but I’ve got concerns ya’ll. He’s giving up 40% hard contact, his walk rate is over 11% (10% is too high), and he’s only averaging 5.1 innings per start. Maybe the Angels are being cautious, but you’re not getting many wins if you can hardly average 5 innings in a start. That combined with his major injury concerns makes him a sell for me.

Freezing Pitchers

Dallas Keuchel has given up 11 ER with 3 HR in his last two starts. This is what happens when you don’t have great stuff and rely on ground balls, control, and defense. I didn’t mention the walks, but he’s walked four in this 11+ IP. All of sudden, the K rate is down, ground ball rate has decreased, and his hard contact is up. That makes a 3.50 ERA 1.10 WHIP pitcher a 4+ ERA and a 1.25+ WHIP. That combined with 7.0K/9 is hardly a top 50 SP.

Alex Wood 11 ER in his last 7.1 IP. Yes one was in Colorado, but he also gave up 5 ER to the Padres. What’s good by on here? Wood has enjoyed a second straight great start to a season and checking his plate discipline tells me his numbers should be identical to last year. He’s getting swings out of the zone and contact and swinging strikes are the same as 2017. Here’s the problem, velocity is down another 1.5 mph, but it’s been like that all season. True, but his GB rate is down, hard contact is up. So the HR are going to remain elevated but his LOB% should go down. He’s actually a moderate buy with his 4.42 ERA. He should keep it just under 4.00 ROS.

Nick Pivetta has struggled in his last two starts giving up 7 ER, 15 base runners in 9 innings. That’s not good but at least he’s averaging a strikeout per inning in those starts. I’m ok with this, his velocity is still great and his slider and curve are still fantastic. He was unlucky with an elevated BABIP and a high HR/FB rate but his hard contact was lower in those starts compared to the season totals. So, this is just a blip, keep rolling with Pivetta or buy if you can.

Ian Kennedy has not fared well over the last two starts, but he’s been worse the last month. His ERA since the start of May is over 9.00. Sure, his Ks are still ok, but he no longer should be streamed in fantasy. There is no match-up that I would ever trust Kennedy. He’s had a decent career but much the pitcher I discuss next, this may b the end of the road for Kennedy.

I have to think that this is Big Game James Shields last year in the Majors. He’s been terrible for the better part of three your now. He’s given up an incredible 6 homers in his last 13 IP and 10 ER. This isn’t fantasy relevant, so I’ll keep it short, but if you’re ever thinking about streaming Shields do yourself a favor and take 7 shots of tequila and pass out. You’ll wake up feeling better than a James Shields fantasy owner.amp;z is not only having a great season, he’s given up only two ER and struck out an amazing 19 batters in his last two starts. So Folty has had a great season, no doubt, but if I’m an owner, I’m selling. Everything screams regression to me. Hard contact is up while BABIP and HR/FB are down. His O-Swing is down and the SwStr% remains below 10% while his K rate is at a career high. His walks have also gone up for the third straight season. He’s more of a 4.00 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP pitcher. Don’t give him away, but try to sell.