New poll: Bill Lee leads in Tennessee's Republican campaign for governor

A new poll released Monday has Williamson County businessman Bill Lee leading by 6 percentage points in Tennessee's Republican gubernatorial primary.

JMC Analytics and Polling, a political data firm in Louisiana, queried voters on which Republican candidate they'd select for governor.

The poll has Lee at 26 percent, former Tennessee Economic and Community Development Commissioner Randy Boyd at 20 percent and U.S. Rep. Diane Black at 19 percent. House Speaker Beth Harwell trails the rest in the poll at 16 percent.

Complete coverage: Tennessee's 2018 campaign for governor

Lee, chairman of the Franklin-based Lee Company, is a political newcomer who has previously trailed Black and Boyd in the race but has shown signs of rising in polls in recent weeks.

As the margins have narrowed, the candidates also have increased political attack ads against one another — including against Lee.

Boyd aired an ad attacking Black, calling her a 20-year politician whose net worth increased by more than $40 million while in office.

Black, who once pulled Democratic primary ballots in 1996, aired an attack ad of her own against Lee, questioning whether he would be voting in the Democratic primary given past political donations to Democrats Karl Dean, Phil Bredesen and Megan Barry.

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Boyd also attacked Lee, saying he was the state president of a group that lobbied for amnesty for immigrants living in the country illegally and did not support Donald Trump in 2016.

But the Associated Builders and Contractors, where Lee served as president in 1999, did not issue statements on immigration reform until later. Neither Boyd nor Lee has given money to Trump’s campaign, according to federal campaign records.

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Campaign donations: Bill Lee campaign says donations to Democrats Bredesen, Dean and Barry 'business decisions'

Lee Company contracts: Bill Lee's company has received $13.8 million in state payments since 2012

JMC Analytics and Polling contacted registered voters via landlines and cellphones, and 500 responses were completed.

The survey, conducted July 18-21, included 12 questions. The company lists the poll as having a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

FiveThirtyEight, a website that tracks poll analysis in politics, sports and business, has previously given JMC Analytics and Polling, also known as JMC Enterprises, a C-plus rating, noting the polling service has called 81 percent of races the company has polled correctly.

According to the poll, 45 percent of respondents were from East Tennessee, 37 percent were from Middle Tennessee and 18 percent were from West Tennessee. In addition, 17 percent of respondents said they did not plan to vote in the Aug. 2 primary election.

Other campaigns slammed the poll.

"No one should fall for a deeply-flawed poll cooked up at the 11th hour by some unknown pollster," Chip Saltsman, chief executive officer for the Boyd campaign, said in a statement. ​"The sample is wrong and the methodology is way off. ​Not sure who paid for this bogus poll — but it looks like just a publicity stunt by the Lee campaign to try and artificially create some momentum.

"There will likely be many more fake polls floating around, but our numbers show Randy in the lead statewide — winning in East Tennessee, winning in West Tennessee, and very competitive in Middle," he said.

Saltsman criticized the poll's methodology, saying it was too broad in polling only registered voters and that 17 percent polled said they would not vote in the primary.

Lee said the poll results are indicative of his rising momentum toward the end of the race.

"We have the momentum now because voters know I'm the most conservative candidate in this race," Lee said in a statement. "That's why our campaign is surging even though all three of the other campaigns are attacking us. I believe Tennesseans are rejecting these dishonest attacks of the other campaigns and rallying to our campaign."

But Chris Hartline, a spokesman for Black, said the Black campaign is not worried about the poll.

"While moderates Randy Boyd and Bill Lee argue about a bogus poll from a firm no one has heard of, conservative Diane Black and her team are busy talking to voters about her record of working with President Trump, her vision and her endorsements from the NRA, Right to Life and American Conservative Union," Hartline said in a statement.

Reach Jordan Buie at jbuie@tennessean.com or 615-726-5970 and on Twitter @jordanbuie.