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Pure Power

This ratings method uses scoring in each individual game, compared to the opponent’s averages, to determine teams’ overall quality. It’s blind to result (W-L-D) but not location or score.

Pittsburgh’s flat-track bully routine saw the Riverhounds go from pretty close to No. 4 Tampa to much closer to No. 2 Nashville. They ran through that script a few times this year, but were a little iffier against top competition. The analogue would be New York Red Bulls II… who lost as soon as they were in a single-elimination game against a top side. That’s not to say Pittsburgh is doomed, just that the formula may slightly overrate them because they didn’t stop at 2 or 3.

Real Monarchs SLC made a big leap, with a blasting of Orange County SC (previously a pretty good road side) under their belts. The RSL 2-side is similar to Pittsburgh in that they don’t cut off the scoring when they get a lead… but dissimilar in that they’re also likely to give up goals in bunches. In single-elimination play, they could stay hot and overachieve expectations, or see one weak day bomb them out.

Sacramento Republic was the lone team to win a play-in game and win at the weekend – perhaps not surprising, because that’s a really tough ask – and they got rewarded for it by the numbers.

At the very top, Phoenix’s draw against Austin was Rising FC’s second-worst home result (the other being a 2-1 loss to the Monarchs) since April. I’ve shown a bit of wariness late in the year about Phoenix’s form, and while I don’t think they’ll cruise to the title, I do think this one seems a bit more like a blip than an indication of continued slipping. At the same time, Austin was a pretty poor road team for most of the year, so it could be worrisome going into a rematch against SLC. However, #dollarbeernight, so…

Games to watch

literally all of them.