Read one way, Manafort's quote is simply an assertion of what he has been saying since he came into the top job last week: Trump is going to get to the 1,237 delegates he needs to be the nominee before the convention. So when the first ballot happens, Trump will be over the number he needs. Case closed.

But what if he doesn't? Read between the lines only slightly and you are left with the distinct impression that Manafort knows it's the first ballot or bust for Trump. I wrote earlier this week wondering whether it was already too late for Trump to fix his problems on the delegate-selection end of the process. Manafort's quote to O'Keefe suggests it might be. This may be a one-shot deal for Trump.

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Such an acknowledgment by Manafort also goes a long way toward explaining Trump's clear rhetorical pivot over the past few days, leaning hard into the idea that the system is rigged against him and that "these people" are tricksters trying to subvert the will of the people. It's a backup plan if he comes up short of 1,237 delegates on the first ballot. If so, Trump, it now seems likely, would walk away from the whole process, declaring it broken and rigged.

All of this should be very worrisome for Republicans still hoping to win the White House in November. If you follow the Trump logic, there are only two options: (1) He wins on the first ballot and is the party's nominee, or (2) he loses on the first ballot and does everything he can to cast the process as fixed and non-democratic. Option 1 is a problem because Trump runs badly behind Hillary Clinton, not only in the head-to-head polling matchups but also among key subgroups such as married women. Option 2 may be an even bigger problem because it opens the door to some sort of third-party bid for Trump. Even if Trump doesn't or can't mount a serious independent bid, he would almost certainly be an unhelpful agitator against the Republican nominee (presumably Cruz).

Here's what we know today: Trump is about to have a very good few weeks beginning next Tuesday in New York. He will go into the convention with both the most delegates and the most raw votes. He and his campaign see the first ballot as his one shot to be the nominee. If he doesn't win it on the first ballot, his prospects beyond that are dim. If he doesn't win it on the first ballot, he is laying the groundwork to declare the whole process a fraud.

That paragraph is an absolute nightmare for the Republican establishment. It leaves Trump as either the party's nominee or the disgruntled loser who is already threatening to take his ball (and all of his supporters) and go home if the rules don't work in his favor. T-R-O-U-B-L-E.