Welcome

Opinion polls are useful, but the betting markets know best. This site analyses the entire betting market daily (by noon) to project the course of the election and find trends and seats of interest.

Using the best odds from across the market and reducing favourite longshot-bias (FLB) by eliminating odds below (33/1), we have converted all odds into implied probability (percentages) and re-weighted each seat to 100%. For cumulative seat projections (1 seat per 100%), a recalculation excluding probabilities <20% exists to further reduce FLB.

Click any seat or party for more detail, or use any of the buttons at the top of the page for other areas of analysis. For feedback or questions, please contact hello@bookelections.com or visit twitter.com/bookelections.

Top 10

2015 Projections

Favourites

Cumulative (exc. FLB)

2015 Projections history

Favourites

Cumulative (exc. FLB)

2015 Projections detail