by Aaron Schatz

Even veteran Football Outsiders readers may be scratching their heads when they see that the Philadelphia Eagles are still on top of our DVOA ratings after Sunday night's overtime loss to Dallas. In fact, there's still a big gap between the Eagles and everyone else. Meanwhile, New England -- the team that is pretty much No. 1 in the NFL by acclamation right now -- is still just fourth after an easy win over Buffalo. What is going on here?

Actually, there's a pretty good explanation for both these teams.

First, the Patriots. The easy explanation for why the Patriots are not No. 1 is "Jacoby Brissett." Jimmy Garoppolo was actually reasonable in the Week 1 win over Arizona and then spectacular in his half-game against Miami in Week 2. In fact, if we lowered the minimum to be ranked to 60 passes, Garoppolo would be second in both passing DVOA and ESPN's QBR stat behind only Tom Brady. The Patriots easily have the best offense in the NFL since Brady's return, but they would also have the best offense if we only looked at games started by Brady or Garoppolo:

New England Offensive DVOA by Starting QB, 2016 Weeks NE DVOA Best non-NE

Offense DVOA Weeks 1-8 (Starters: Garoppolo, Brissett, Brady) 19.2% ATL 23.3% Weeks 1-2, 5-8 (Starters: Garoppolo, Brady) 26.9% ATL 18.1% Weeks 5-8 (Starter: Brady) 32.8% DAL 28.8%

However, it's not just offense where the Patriots have gotten better in October. Their defense has also improved significantly. The Patriots' two worst defensive DVOA games were the first two of the season. They had 29.3% defensive DVOA in Weeks 1-2, and only the Colts were worse. However, since Week 3, the Patriots have put up a -6.7% defensive DVOA, which ranks 11th in the league over that time period.

So essentially, this is the Patriots team we've been seeing for the past month: a dominant offense combined with a good defense instead of an average defense. Combine the Brady offense with the defense of Weeks 3-8 and top-ten special teams, and you would get a team with DVOA of 41.9%. That's slightly higher than the rating the Patriots had when they were 8-0 after the first half of last season. If the Patriots continue to play at this level after the bye week, we'll see this Patriots team emerge in Weighted DVOA as those games from early in the season drop in strength over the next few weeks.

As for the Eagles, there are three major issues:

First, the fact that there has been no dominant team over all eight weeks of this season. That means that the Eagles can rank No. 1 overall thanks to the top-rated defense and special teams, despite ranking 23rd in offense.

Second, the power of one or two huge wins. There are only seven games in the Eagles' DVOA rating, and one of them was a 34-3 keelhauling of the Pittsburgh Steelers. With current opponent adjustments, the Eagles get 82.3% DVOA for that game. It's the second-best game of any team this year. (Ironically, the best game came from the Steelers the very next week, when they blew out Kansas City.) The Eagles also have 53.3% DVOA for their 21-10 win over Minnesota last week, because they completely shut down the Vikings' offense. These two wins have a huge amount of weight because they aren't balanced out by any large losses. The Eagles' worst game of the year is -17.3% DVOA in their Week 6 loss to Washington. A one-point loss to Detroit results in DVOA around zero, and they get around 25% for their wins over Cleveland and Chicago as well as Sunday's overtime loss to Dallas. (That game was a huge boost for both teams, as the Eagles come out at 26.6% and the Cowboys at 34.3%.)

Some may argue that this is evidence that our system gives too much weight to a single blowout and should limit the effect of a single game on a team's total rating for the season. However, history has shown us that this method would not be any more predictive of future performance. Everything the Eagles did on that day says as much about what we can expect from the Eagles going forward as everything the Eagles did against Dallas this week.

The third issue for the Eagles is special teams. The Eagles' special teams are phenomenal this year compared to the rest of the league. Philadelphia's special teams DVOA of 9.9% is nearly double that of any other team, with the Rams now second at 5.0%. The Eagles have been strong on both field goals and kickoffs this year, but the biggest reason for this rating is kickoff returns. And this is where we might have a bit of a problem. Kickoff returns this year are weird, because moving the touchback to the 25 has changed strategy far more than the NFL Competition Committee ever expected. The Eagles are the only team to return a kickoff for a touchdown, and they've done it twice. As a result, we estimate their kickoff returns to have a value of 13.9 points worth of field position over average. That's over 10 points ahead of the No. 2 team in kick returns, the New York Giants.

I've changed baselines to try to keep up with changes in kickoffs, both with the move back to the 35 in 2011 and this year's touchback change. However, it's possible that DVOA is giving too much value -- in particular, too much predictive value -- to long kickoff returns, given how rare they have become. Last year, there were nine kickoff returns we scored as being worth over 4 points more than average: seven touchdowns, plus 100-yard returns by Benny Cunningham and Ameer Abdullah that stopped just short of the goal line. This year, there are only two and Philadelphia has them both.

Nonetheless, special teams is not the only reason Philadelphia is No. 1. Even if we gave Philadelphia the same value for kick returns as the second-ranked Giants, the Eagles would still rank second on special teams and they would still have the best overall DVOA in the league. The difference would be in the gap between the Eagles and the five teams currently clustered between second and sixth below them: Dallas, Denver, New England, Atlanta, and Seattle.

Speaking of special teams, we've got to talk a little bit about what's going on with field goal kickers this year. It is really strange.

In general, field goal percentage has gone up gradually throughout NFL history almost every year. There's a bit of an exception recently because 2013 was a really good year, with kickers hitting 86.6 percent of field goals. Kickers were not as good in 2014, but 2014 was still better than 2012, and 2015 was better than 2014.

This year, field goal percentage is down. Kickers are hitting 83.8 percent of field goals this year, compared to 84.5 percent in 2015 and 84.0 percent in 2014. It doesn't look like a big fall, but of course kicking field goals gets harder later in the season in outdoor stadiums. In most years, percentage will drop in the second half of the year.

So here's a look at how field goal percentage has really changed from year-to-year, looking at each half of the season separately. My numbers are slightly different from the NFL's because I've removed aborted attempts with no actual kick.

NFL Field Goal Rates, Weeks 1-8 vs. 9-17, 2010-2016 Year 1-8 9-17 All 2010 81.4% 83.2% 82.4% 2011 85.9% 80.4% 82.9% 2012 87.9% 80.3% 83.9% 2013 86.1% 86.9% 86.6% 2014 86.1% 82.1% 84.0% 2015 85.4% 83.7% 84.5% 2016 83.8% -- --

OK, so that's a change. But it's not really that big a change. It certainly seems like the problem with field goals this year is a lot bigger than this. And actually, the issue isn't all the field goals: it's when and where. There's a problem nobody is noticing, and a problem everybody is noticing.

The problem nobody is noticing is that kickers are much worse this year kicking from long distances. That's where most of the drop in field goal percentage comes from. In Weeks 1-8 of the last three seasons, NFL field goal kickers connected on 66 percent of their field goal attempts from 50 or more yards out. This year, that number is just 52 percent. Sebastian Jenikowski on his own has already missed five different attempts of 50 yards or more, including two against Tampa Bay that would have won the game for the Raiders.

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And that's the other problem: the when. Kickers are horrible this year when it comes to clutch kicks, the field goals that would tie a game or put a team ahead in the last two minutes of the fourth quarter or in overtime. It's been especially ridiculous the last two weeks. In Weeks 7 and 8, there were six different misses on game-winning field goals. For the year, kickers are 15-of-25 on these field goals (60 percent). By comparison, kickers hit 38-of-53 on these kicks in 2015 (72 percent) including 19-of-22 in Weeks 1-8 (86 percent). In 2014, kickers hit 29-of-39 clutch field goals (74 percent) including 21-of-26 in Weeks 1-8 (81 percent). So we all think there's a huge problem with field goal kicking because we've all been paying attention to a lot of very high-profile misses, but we haven't noticed all the 35-yard field goals that are still getting hit as usual in the first quarter of games. It also doesn't help that there are a couple of high-profile kickers having very public inconsistency issues, primarily Stephen Gostkowski of the Patriots and Blair Walsh of the Vikings.

So what's going on? I have no idea. I'm certainly not an expert on the technical aspects of field goal kicking, and I couldn't watch film of Gostkowski and Walsh and Janikowski and figure out if they have some problem in common. If there's something going around, it certainly isn't affecting Adam Vinatieri and Justin Tucker, who are each worth more than 10 points over an average kicker this year even after adjusting for Vinatieri kicking indoors. (Greg Zuerlein also hasn't missed this year, but the Rams haven't given him much opportunity.) It all could be just random variation. But it's really strange.

One last special teams note, because this is the kind of weirdness I find interesting: we've now had back-to-back weeks with an aborted punt fumbled by the punter, but picked up and run not just for positive yardage but for a first-down conversion. Marquette King of Oakland did it in Week 7, and Colton Schmidt of Buffalo in Week 8. The odds of these plays happening in back-to-back weeks are astronomical. I went back through our play-by-play files and there had not been an aborted punt-turned-first down in a dozen years. In 2008, the Seahawks had a punt blocked but picked it up and ran for a first down, which is sort of similar but not quite the same. But for an aborted punt-turned-first down, you have to go all the way back to Brian Moorman of Buffalo against the Patriots in Week 4 of 2004. To have these plays now happen in back-to-back weeks is just crazy. An equally crazy coincidence: two of the last three plays of this type involved a Buffalo punter against New England.

(Correction! A commenter found one of these plays that we missed, by Green Bay's Tim Masthay in Week 11 of 2011. So that's four of them in the last 13 years.)

And for those asking, I have absolutely no idea what to do with these plays in DVOA. Aborted punts count in special teams as negative plays, but these aren't negative plays. Fake punts count in the run/pass stats, but those are planned runs and passes, and these were supposed to be punts. Are these bad plays because the punt snap was fumbled, or good snaps because the punter somehow got a first down without getting tackled? For now, I'm just leaving them out entirely.

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Once again this season, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 17 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in DVOA and DYAR. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend, beginning at 11am Eastern on Friday. We will also tweet out images of these players from the @fboutsiders Twitter account on most Fridays. The best player of each week, the Football Outsiders Hero, will require you to collect a set of the other four Football Outsiders players that week, plus a certain number of Football Outsiders collectibles available in Madden Ultimate Team packs.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 8 are:

WR Amari Cooper, OAK (FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS HERO) : Led all Week 8 WR with 64 DYAR (12-for-15, 173 yards, TD, plus a 31-yard gain on DPI).

: Led all Week 8 WR with 64 DYAR (12-for-15, 173 yards, TD, plus a 31-yard gain on DPI). CB A.J. Bouye, HOU : Allowed 2.9 yards per pass with 67 percent coverage success rate, primarily against Marvin Jones.

: Allowed 2.9 yards per pass with 67 percent coverage success rate, primarily against Marvin Jones. RE Adrian Clayborn, ATL : Two third-down sacks, run stuff on second-and-3.

: Two third-down sacks, run stuff on second-and-3. QB Kirk Cousins, WAS : Second among Week 8 QB with 164 DYAR (38-for-56, 458 yards, 2 TD, INT).

: Second among Week 8 QB with 164 DYAR (38-for-56, 458 yards, 2 TD, INT). LG Andrus Peat, NO: Saints RB had 9 carries, 70 yards and 67 percent success rate on runs to the left.

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All stats pages are now updated through Week 8 of 2016. Snap counts, playoff odds, and the premium DVOA database are also fully updated. This week, we say goodbye to DAVE, our method which combines 2016 performance with our preseason projections. All numbers listed below represent 2016 only. However, for one more week, I did use a light version of DAVE for the playoff odds simulation. The ratings used for playoff odds consist mostly of Weighted DVOA, with a small amount of preseason forecast still included: five percent for teams that have played eight games, and nine percent for teams that have played seven games.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through eight weeks of 2016, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. Because it is early in the season, opponent adjustments are only at 80 percent strength; they will increase 10 percent every week through Week 10. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 PHI 28.6% 1 28.3% 1 4-3 -6.4% 23 -25.1% 1 9.9% 1 2 DAL 21.8% 5 22.1% 2 6-1 21.6% 2 -1.3% 14 -1.1% 21 3 DEN 20.3% 3 20.2% 3 6-2 -4.1% 21 -24.0% 2 0.5% 16 4 NE 19.6% 6 20.2% 4 7-1 19.2% 3 2.1% 19 2.4% 7 5 ATL 19.5% 7 19.6% 5 5-3 23.3% 1 8.1% 26 4.3% 5 6 SEA 19.1% 2 18.8% 6 4-2-1 -3.3% 18 -21.7% 3 0.7% 12 7 GB 12.1% 8 12.1% 7 4-3 3.6% 12 -8.1% 8 0.4% 17 8 MIN 11.9% 4 11.5% 8 5-2 -8.4% 24 -18.1% 5 2.1% 8 9 BUF 8.9% 9 8.8% 9 4-4 9.3% 8 1.5% 17 1.2% 11 10 KC 5.5% 12 5.8% 10 5-2 -3.5% 20 -5.7% 9 3.2% 6 11 OAK 4.5% 17 4.2% 11 6-2 14.4% 4 11.1% 28 1.2% 10 12 PIT 3.5% 14 3.1% 14 4-3 9.7% 7 8.0% 25 1.8% 9 13 ARI 3.3% 10 3.4% 12 3-4-1 -8.9% 26 -18.3% 4 -6.0% 30 14 SD 2.9% 11 2.9% 15 3-5 -1.2% 16 -8.3% 7 -4.3% 25 15 CHI 2.9% 22 3.2% 13 2-6 2.0% 13 -0.3% 15 0.5% 15 16 WAS 2.7% 15 2.8% 16 4-3-1 6.1% 10 3.7% 21 0.3% 18 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 NYG 2.4% 13 2.5% 17 4-3 -3.4% 19 -5.2% 10 0.6% 14 18 MIA 1.2% 16 1.6% 18 3-4 -1.6% 17 -3.0% 13 -0.2% 19 19 CIN -0.6% 18 -0.8% 19 3-4-1 12.8% 6 7.5% 24 -5.9% 29 20 BAL -3.7% 19 -3.8% 20 3-4 -19.7% 30 -15.3% 6 0.7% 13 21 CAR -4.0% 24 -4.0% 21 2-5 1.4% 14 0.8% 16 -4.6% 27 22 TEN -4.7% 20 -4.4% 22 4-4 7.9% 9 6.1% 22 -6.5% 31 23 NO -5.6% 21 -5.6% 23 3-4 13.0% 5 17.1% 29 -1.5% 22 24 DET -12.1% 28 -11.9% 24 4-4 5.7% 11 22.2% 32 4.5% 4 25 LARM -12.2% 25 -12.3% 25 3-4 -21.0% 31 -3.7% 11 5.0% 2 26 TB -13.3% 23 -13.1% 26 3-4 -5.8% 22 2.6% 20 -4.9% 28 27 JAC -15.2% 26 -15.4% 28 2-5 -13.3% 28 1.5% 18 -0.4% 20 28 IND -15.3% 27 -15.4% 27 3-5 -0.6% 15 19.6% 31 4.9% 3 29 SF -22.2% 29 -22.4% 29 1-6 -11.9% 27 7.3% 23 -2.9% 23 30 HOU -25.8% 30 -26.2% 30 5-3 -22.4% 32 -3.3% 12 -6.7% 32 31 NYJ -30.6% 31 -30.6% 31 3-5 -15.1% 29 11.0% 27 -4.5% 26 32 CLE -30.9% 32 -30.9% 32 0-8 -8.5% 25 19.2% 30 -3.3% 24

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).