If Gov. Walker keeps his seat, the state Senate could be Democrats' consolation prize. Stakes high in Wis. recalls

With both sides pouring millions of dollars into the Scott Walker recall campaign and the national focus firmly affixed on the Wisconsin GOP governor’s fate, it’s easy to overlook the consolation prize on June 5: the state Senate.

Although they’re getting just a fraction of the attention and cash going into the top of the ticket race, the four Wisconsin state Senate recall elections on the ballot are nothing to sneeze at. Democrats need to flip just one of them to wrest control of the chamber from the GOP — a prize that narrowly escaped them in the contentious round of recalls last year.


Even if Walker keeps his seat — which polls suggest he’s likely to do — flipping the Senate would deliver a measure of solace to Democrats and organized labor. Not only would it create a formidable check on Walker’s agenda, it would provide closure to the crusade they started last year.

At the same time, a GOP sweep of the four races and a Walker win would deal a devastating blow to the left. It would hand a powerful mandate to Walker and his Republican allies in the state Legislature and give the GOP a burst of adrenaline heading into the November elections.

Republican Sen. Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald — the target of a recall — said the outcome of the Senate recalls “absolutely creates momentum for November, or could kind of stymie our ability to make the case that we’re going to roll right into November and add to our majority.”

Still, he insisted that a Democratic-controlled Senate can’t do much this year, regardless of who is in the governor’s mansion. The legislature has ended its session for this year, and the Republican-led Assembly would likely disregard any efforts to hold a special session.

“So there’s no way of passing a bill,” Fitzgerald said. “What they could do is change the committee chairs and they could get new parking spots and they could get bigger offices. But other than that, before the November elections, not much can really happen.”

If Democrats don’t win the state Senate on June 5, their prospects only get worse. Thanks to the new map drawn by Republicans in the recent round of redistricting, the GOP is seen as having an advantage this fall.

Democrats are hoping to gain at least two seats in June to provide a buffer against any GOP gains in November.

“Taking back the Senate majority is a huge deal,” said Mike Tate, chairman of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. “I think that there are a lot of things that Scott Walker has done here that we need to make sure we can undo. And securing a Senate majority is a major piece of that puzzle to getting it done.”

And winning the Senate in June will help Democrats and organized labor save face if they miss their top target.

“People have put so much of not just their time, but their heart and passion into [Walker’s] race, and he’s been so villified and people have so organized around him that I think there’s going to be some broken spirits and hearts, even if we take back the Senate,” said Wisconsin-based Democratic consultant Heather Colburn. “I think, without question, an excellent consolation prize is defeating some Republicans who are part of passing Scott Walker’s agenda.”

Last summer, candidates and outside groups poured $44 million into nine other state Senate recall races, according to the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign. Back then, Democrats’ inability to capture the chamber dealt a major blow to the party and to the labor movement — and the frustration helped fuel this latest round of recalls centered around Walker.

If Democrats can’t flip any of the seats this time around, “It’s definitely going to take a lot of wind out of their sails as far as the next general election,” said Mike Murphy, south branch chairman of the Milwaukee County Republican Party. “I think it’s going to embolden Gov. Walker as well as these state senators that are currently serving.”

The Senate’s fate for the remainder of the year may come down to voters in southeastern Wisconsin city of Racine and its surrounding areas.

Democrats and Republicans alike see the 21st District as the most likely to swap hands. Former state Sen. John Lehman, a Democrat, is trying to reclaim the seat he lost in 2010 to Republican Van Wanggaard, and a mid-April survey conducted by Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos showed the race within the margin of error, with a two-point edge for Wanggaard.

“It’s the only one that we’re really majorly concerned about,” Murphy said. “It’s going to be a nail biter.”

Public polls have been scarce for the state Senate races, but the PPP poll showed Republicans with clear advantages in the other three races.

One race that appears to be a lost cause for the Democrats is their bid to oust Fitzgerald, who is being challenged by Democrat Lori Compas. In the heavily Republican district in southern Wisconsin, Compas doesn’t stand much of a chance.

Democrat Kristen Dexter is challenging Republican state Sen. Terry Moulton in central Wisconsin. Democrats say this district is on the table, too, but the PPP poll had Moulton trailing by 10 points.

In an open 29th District seat, where Republican Pam Galloway resigned in advance of the recall vote, GOP candidate Jerry Petrowski is challenging Democrat Donna Seidel. Seidel trailed by 14 points in the April poll.

Each of the districts in play have tilted to the right in recent elections, said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette University Law School poll, but all four — with the exception of Fitzgerald’s seat — were recently held by Democrats.

“Walker outperformed his state average in each of these districts and [President Barack] Obama underperformed his state average in each of the districts, though not by a huge amount,” Franklin said. With the exception of Fitzgerald’s district, “The other three had been held by Democrats and were won by Republicans. So you might expect them to be at least competitive for Democrats.”

GOP Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch is also facing a recall vote and has been polling ahead of Democrat and labor favorite Mahlon Mitchell, president of the Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin. The lieutenant governor is elected with the governor, but the rules governing the recall dictate that the two candidates are recalled separately — meaning the top two state officials could represent different parties.

But while a symbolic victory could buoy whichever side wins, the lieutenant governor seat is largely a figurehead position. And state operatives say that’s an unlikely scenario, since voters will likely vote a straight party ticket.