2019-12-07 2018-06-28 Analysis for BCHBTC: will 51% Attack Occur? Mikhail Hypov 2019-12-072018-06-28

Analysis for Bitcoin Cash to BTC. I’m going to analyze BCH and compare it to the other Bitcoin forks. Updated scenario amid the growing market tension.

In this post, I applied the following tools: fundamental analysis, candlestick patterns, all-round market view, market balance level, oscillators, trading volume profile.

Dear friends,

I’ll reveal nothing new if I say that the cryptocurrency market is depressed. In spite of rather positive news that Facebook cancels its ban on cryptocurrency ads, the market has hardly moved.

In this context, it is especially exciting to watch Bitcoin Cash. Nobody seems to be indifferent to this coin. It features a whole army of both fans and opponents.

For example, just yesterday, the Internet was flooded by mining pool BitPico’s messages that would organize a 51% attack on Bitcoin Cash.

There is a strong doubt in whether the pool will manage to go ahead or not.

Husam Abboud, a cryptocurrency analyst from the FECAP university in Brazil, has proved that to carry out 51% attack on Bitcoin Cash, they need just 250 BTC, or about $1.5 mln at the current rate.

Agree, the amount doesn’t seem to unreal, and, with a strong will, BitPico is able to collect the money.

It is suggested that the attack alone should drop the coin’s price, so the attackers will benefit only provided they bet on the rate decrease. On the other hand, it doesn’t make any sense, based on the potential profit, to press BCH down when it is already at the lowest low.

On the other hand, BitPico is going to increase its power in the next six weeks, which leaves some room for a short-term rise.

Nobody yet knows if the attack will really occur; there’s only one thing clear, the news provoked a strong response and was widely spread by the media.

Remember, they made 51% attack on such altcoins as Verge, Electroneum, Bitcoin Gold, Monacoin.

51% attack becomes a kind of horror story; and people, already frustrated at the cryptocurrency falling market, may just give up and dump the rest of their cryptocurrency.

The risk degree is extremely high and the hamsters have been scared off for a long time. If such an attack can really occur, especially on a top altcoin, the attitude to the other younger altcoins with small network may be completely changed.

Investors may start giving up on altcoins, or even the cryptocurrency at all, which can make a negative impact on the entire cryptocurrency world in future.

Anyway, first of all, altcoins will be drawn down. The capitals can well flow from altcoins into bitcoin. It may result in the situation, when altcoins will be moving in the direction, opposite to Bitcoin, i.e. they will fall down even lower when Bitcoin is growing up.

The situation looks gloomy. To analyze it by means of technical analysis, let’s examine BCHBTC in more detail.

Currently, the market is being greatly transformed, and, though bitcoin still strongly affects the market, it won’t be always so. To be more objective analyzing the altcoin, I’ll compare it not to the market, but to its segment, based on its functional type.

In this case, I included both Bitcoin and its forks, like Litecoin and Bitcoin Gold, and, of course, BiCash itself.

As you see from the chart above, during the entire survey period, BCH looks more aggressive than the general index of forks. At present, the gap in the dynamics of price moves is fairly wide, which provides some space for moving towards each other, provided that other index coins are rising faster or falling slower than Bitcoin Cash itself.

In the monthly timeframe, BCHBTC broke through the previous monthly low, which is a bearish signal. The next support level is around April’s lows, close to 0.090 BTC.

Volume profile indicator shows a strong traded channel, where the ticker is below the point of control at 0.144 BTC; it is a signal to test the channel’s bottom border at 0.09 BTC.

In the weekly chart, the situation also looks negative. The last candle of the unclosed week broke through the previous low. The ticker itself is on its way towards 0.104 BTC, the bottom border of Keltner channel.

Oscillators are also in bearish direction. Both MACD and RSI stochastic in the weekly timeframe suggest a possible decline.

In the daily timeframe the prospects are also bearish. Neither candlestick patterns, nor oscillators send any reversal signals. The only thing, suggesting a possible bullish correction in the near future, is RSI stochastic that has been in the oversold zone for quite a long time.

In general, everything still suggests the bearish trend continue.

Summary:

BCHBTC is trading down. There are no signs of reversal. I think the news background to be moderate negative for Bitcoin Cash.

At present, the most likely scenario suggests that the price will go down towards Keltner channel’s bottom border in the weekly timeframe, at about 0.104 BTC, with a possible puncture at 0.10.

The next growth target is 0.12 BTC; it can hardly be reached in the next week.

I recommend waiting until the price rebounds from level 0.10 BTC.

It is very risky to buy at the current levels.

I wish you good luck and good profits!

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