For decades, Republican presidential contenders would commit to support a constitutional amendment banning abortion — a seemingly definitive statement on the issue that nonetheless had almost no chance of making it through the cumbersome process to change the Constitution.

Then, having sewn up pro-life support, they would move on to other issues.


In the 2016 election, pro-life groups have become more savvy — and less tolerant of lip-service endorsements. And among other provisions, they are pushing an idea that most agree has a realistic chance of becoming law: banning abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy.

Fourteen of the likely GOP candidates already pledged to sign such a law if elected, but leaders of the community want them to offer vocal support of the measure — warning of peril in the primaries for those who do not and making the case that this could be a winning issue in the 2016 general election.

Even before talk of “legitimate rape” made Todd Akin a household name in 2012, many GOP candidates were skittish to engage on anything having to do with the A-word.

Social conservatives recognize that they have the most leverage during the nominating process. There were hours of discussion about how best to maximize it during a Thursday strategy session convened by the Susan B. Anthony List, one of the most influential anti-abortion groups.

Steve King, the conservative congressman from Iowa, told activists they should make a point of prodding candidates to detail their views during events. “If they’re not in a position where they talk about it, neither are they publicly committed,” King told a group of 75 at the Mandarin Oriental hotel in Washington. “Getting them on record creates momentum for our cause.”

A group of moderate Republican congresswomen prodded House leadership to postpone a vote on the 20-week ban in January over concerns about the definition of rape in the bill. Activists continue pushing for votes in the House and Senate this Congress, but they know there aren’t the votes to override a presidential veto. So they’re focused on electing an ally as president. It’s part of a broader strategy to incrementally roll back abortion. Many states have already passed similar bills.

Marjorie Dannenfelser, the president of the SBA List, said that “inserting this into the presidential debate is way easier said than done.”

“A candidate is the most risk-averse human being on the planet,” she explained in an interview. “It only works when they’ve decided this is a winning issue … We see our job as establishing a bar that everyone should meet.”

The only advertisement Mitt Romney ran about abortion in 2012 was aimed at assuring women that he supported allowing it in the cases of rape, incest and to save the life of the mother. That came in response to an onslaught of attack ads from Barack Obama campaign that had helped to create double-digit gender gap.

Carol Moore, who sits on the SBA List board of directors, warned that the GOP’s base may stay home in 2016 if the Republican nominee again shies away from the issue. “Mitt Romney didn’t really want to touch it. Bob Dole didn’t want to touch it. John McCain didn’t want to touch it,” she said. “How did that work out for us? You don’t excite people and make them want to come out to defend the babies when you’re not talking about it.”

In 2008, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was pro-choice. This time, everyone running identifies as pro-life. This put pressure on the candidates to differentiate themselves from the pack. Because the 20-week ban actually has a good chance of becoming law if the next president is Republican, there is more pressure to show sincere support.

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul got a rock star reception when he spoke at the Thursday session. The group loved that he refused to say whether he supports the standard exceptions last week during a testy interview in New Hampshire. He responded to questions about his views with questions about how late in a pregnancy Democratic National Committee chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz believes it is okay to get an abortion. Many activists said it was refreshing to hear a presidential candidate play offense.

“There is a difference in the way conservatives are treated versus liberals, and I say we have to push back,” Paul told the group to enthusiastic applause. “Let’s have the other side being asked questions, and not just our side responding to questions.”

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who was pro-choice until 1995, is viewed skeptically by the SBA crowd. He recently signed the 20-week pledge. He tells conservative audiences he is the most pro-life governor his blue state has ever had and brags about vetoing Planned Parenthood five times.

Jeb Bush, who converted to Catholicism the same year Christie says he flipped his position on abortion, had a record on abortion as governor of Florida that the pro-life community likes.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker was an outspoken opponent of abortion during his early political career, including his 2010 election. But he softened his tone during a tough 2014 reelection fight. This raised concerns at the activist level. Last month, under pressure from pro-life groups, Walker announced he will sign a 20-week ban at the state level.

During a conservative media panel Thursday afternoon, Weekly Standard writer John McCormack observed that Walker was chairman of Students for Life at Marquette University. “Sometimes there are people who believe something so strongly they’re kind of scared [to talk about it],” he said.

“That’s a good psychoanalysis,” said Dannenfelser, who added that it took “a lot of work” to convince Walker to sign onto the 20-week pledge, even though he was on record supporting it in years past.

Activists are particularly enthused about some of the lower-tier candidates: South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, who has sponsored the 20-week bill in the Senate, gave a well-received speech at a Thursday night gala. Carly Fiorina, the only woman running on the GOP side, emceed the event.

Many party strategists and major donors are uncomfortable talking about abortion, because that’s not what brought them into the tent, even if something like a 20-week ban polls pretty well at the topline level. In 2012, not only did Akin lose in Missouri but Richard Mourdock blew a winnable race in Indiana after defending his position that a woman should not be allowed to get an abortion even if she’s raped, calling the pregnancy God’s will.

“Those were two isolated incidents,” said Jane Abraham, who chairs the SBA List board. “How they framed the issue wasn’t representative of the pro-life movement … That’s in the past.”

Abraham said abortion will inevitably come up during debates and interviews. So, she wonders, why not preemptively bring the issue up and paint the Democratic position as “extreme”?

“We know without question that children inside the womb can feel pain,” said Abraham, the wife of former Michigan Sen. Spencer Abraham. “We should be proud and strong.”

On Thursday night at the SBA List gala, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus joined Paul in questioning whether Wasserman Schultz supports cutting off abortion rights at any phase of a pregnancy.

“I am here tonight as a pro-life chairman of a pro-life party,” he said. “We must not be afraid to make our case!”

David O’Steen, executive director of the National Right to Life, said GOP candidates will get points if they keep pressing Democrats to answer questions like this. “Any Republican candidate should not in any way equivocate on what their position is,” he said.

This was a common refrain in more than a dozen interviews.

“When you tiptoe, you lose your balance,” said Tamara Scott, the RNC committeewoman from Iowa. “It’s got to be more than a clever quote that will appease one arm of a party. You have to know your principles and articulate them without apology.”

“It’s insulting when they don’t go deep on the issues,” said Arkansas state Rep. Robin Lundstrum.

“They’ve gotten beat up on it before, so I understand the problem, but you can’t win by retreating,” said Joe Cosby, a D.C. attorney active in the movement.

Pro-choice groups stressed that they will not allow pro-lifers to frame the 20-week question on their own terms.

National Abortion Rights Action League political director Erika West predicted that candidates will embrace tough new restrictions for now, but that the eventual GOP standard bearer will begin using more coded language after the primary and return to obfuscating their position come fall. They’ve launched an “accountability campaign” to closely track every Republican candidate’s comments on abortion now so that it can be used against them later.

“What we expect and have every reason to anticipate is when it gets to the general election the nominee on the Republican side will run to the left,” she said.

Planned Parenthood Action Fund says nearly 99 percent of abortions in the U.S. occur before 21 weeks.

“If politicians like Rand Paul are truly committed to reducing the rates of abortion in America, they’d invest in programs that are proven to work — including sex education and affordable birth control,” said Cecile Richards, the group’s president. “Instead, they’re waging an attack on safe, legal abortion.”

Marcy Stech of EMILY’S List noted that Republicans won key races in 2014 battlegrounds by blurring differences on abortion, not emphasizing them. Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner reversed his support for so-called “personhood” legislation and ran ads touting his support for birth control. “Forcing GOP hopefuls to talk about their right-wing views on women brings the GOP into dangerous territory,” she said.

SBA List spent $16 million last cycle, including on TV ads to help Republican Senate candidates in states like North Carolina and Louisiana that focused on how developed fetuses are by 20 weeks. The group’s preliminary budget for the 2016 cycle is $20 million.

Leaders of the group point to Republican Greg Abbott’s success in the Texas governor’s race, where he ran Spanish-language radio ads that touted his opposition to abortion. His Democratic opponent, Wendy Davis, catapulted to national prominence because of a filibuster against an abortion bill.

Adam Schaeffer, a social scientist with a background in political psychology, has done extensive research for SBA List the past few years to test which messages resonate best. He said his work in Virginia and Iowa suggests left-leaning women who consider themselves pro-choice are receptive to incremental steps like the 20-week ban, when framed correctly.

“It sounds insane on the face of it,” he said, “but most of them are uncomfortable with abortion after a certain point.”