Ignore the Results, Clarkson's Still a Contender

Golden Knights Ready for Postseason Run

by Joe Meloni/Senior Writer (@JoeMeloni)

Clarkson is a lot of things.

It's third in the ECAC.

Seventh in Pairwise.

It's also stuck in a rut.

Winners of just one in their last 10 games, the Golden Knights seem to be falling at the worst possible time. Days from the end of the regular season. Weeks from Championship Saturday. Clarkson just can't catch a break. Most teams, after a 1-5-4 stretch, would be reeling.

At least, it should be that way.

But the Golden Knights became one of this season's breakout teams by ignoring results and commiting fully to a process. Swings have defined Clarkson's season. Clarkson hasn't wavered. At the moment, bad luck is defining Clarkson's results. It's not defining the club's approach.

"Our process is still good," Clarkson coach Casey Jones said. "We have to make sure we're always correcting. We focused hard during the streak on playing our game. When you're winning, you still need to correct. There are still things to learn. So now that the results aren't there, we've made it a point not to overexaggerate. When you lose games, you tend to nitpick too much."

Clarkson's players saw what their ceiling could look like this season. Mixed with a little luck, the Golden Knights became the talk of the country during a 14-game winning streak that ran from Nov. 3 until Jan. 19.

Winning 14 games in a row in any Division I conference requires as much luck as does skill. As much good fortune as quality execution.

Casey Jones knows this as much as anyone. So he's not panicked. Even now, as his team has won just one of its last nine games, Jones can confidently say his team is in a good place.

It's not the 14-game winning streak or the 18-3-1 overall start.

It's what the Golden Knights have put into it all. The process that transformed Clarkson from a middling ECAC team into a contender for conference and national titles.

At 19-8-5 through 32 games, the Golden Knights' season breaks down into three distinct stretches: a 4-3-1 start, the 14-game winning streak and their current 1-5-4 run.

The Golden Knights' start made people pay attention. Four wins from eight games wasn't going to put Clarkson atop polls or the Pairwise. It demonstrated something that's become quite clear throughout the season, though. CU can compete for titles.

In the opening 4-3-1 stretch against teams from the Big Ten, the NHCHC and Hockey East, the Golden Knights accounted for 45 percent of the shots for and about 58 percent of the goals. They played with some good fortune. However, it was around this time Jake Kielly emerged as one of the nation's breakthrough starts.

He began the year with .946 save percentage in those first eight games — an unsustainably high number. For reference, since 2002-03, only seven goaltenders have finished an entire season with a save percentage that high in at least 15 games played. For those eight games, CU shot 9.2 percent — a figure higher than average but not enough to overcome a 44.5 percent shots-for rate against the level of competition Clarkson faced in its opening eight games. So the 4-3-1 record was almost entirely due to Kielly's hot start.

His run of dominance continued through Clarkson's next stretch — the 14-game winning streak that changed the national perception about the Golden Knights. Moving into the teeth of its ECAC schedule, Clarkson feasted on strong and weak teams alike.

The Golden Knights took about 57 percent of the shots on goal this time and scored more than 80 percent of the goals. Kielly was simply brilliant in this stretch, posting a .956 save percentage in 13 games. Everything went Clarkson's way.

CU's quality of competition in its first eight games was also superior than it was during its 14-game run. However, the Golden Knights did outplay the quality opponents it faced during the streak. Resounding wins over Cornell, Providence and Union stand out.

Heading into Jan. 19's game with Harvard, Clarkson approached one of its stiffest tests of the year.

And here's where things got interesting. Kielly allowed six goals on 37 shots. The Golden Knights offense managed the same amount. A 6-6 tie overshadowed Kielly's rough night and uneven performance as Clarkson's winning streak ended.

The unbeaten run went the same way the following night with a 3-2 loss to Dartmouth. The Golden Knights have won just once since. In this stretch, CU has lost games to three teams outside the ECAC top four. A win over Yale and a contested scoreless draw with soon-to-be-crowned ECAC regular-season champion Cornell stand as the only positive results.

Statistically, the only numbers that have fallen in this time are Kielly's. And, frankly, some regression from him was inevitable. Clarkson's team save percentage in the last 10 games is .877 — Kielly's is .888. Jones tried get Kielly a night off on Saturday in the season's second matchup with Harvard, but the struggles of backup Nicholas Latinovich forced Kielly into the game with Crimson already leading, 2-0. They'd win, 5-2.

"Jake's a really good goalie," Jones said. "He's a guy we know we can lean on. I thought, on Saturday, he could use a mental break. It didn't work out. That's the way the game goes. He's more than capable of being one of the better goalies in the league."

In many instances, the Golden Knights simply haven't been able to buy a goal. Meanwhile, every tip, deflection and bounce that Kielly swallowed up through 22 games are now finding nylon.

It happens.

"When you're on a winning streak, everything is positive," Jones said. "Now, everything we're hearing is negative. With our body of work, we're still in good position. We had some goals we've checked off. Getting the bye was one of them. Now heading into the last weekend and the bye, we're focusing on our identity. The weekend is about winning shifts and winning our battles.

"We've relied a little bit on our skill level lately. We got away from the 200-foot game. I saw it on Saturday, we made it tough for Harvard. The start of games has been a bit more tentative because of the winless streak. As the games have gone on, we've seen our style of play come out. We've dictated the style of play. We're working through it."

The Golden Knights have fallen from contention for a Cleary Cup but earned a bye in the ECAC opening round and are essentially assured a bid to the NCAA tournament.

After this weekend's last two regular-season games against Quinnipiac and Princeton in Potsdam, Clarkson will get a much-needed weekend off as it prepares for its quarterfinal matchup and an overdue run in the ECAC tournament. Clarkson hasn't advanced past the league quarterfinals since winning the ECAC tournament in 2007. This year's edition is more than capable of erasing that frustrating reality.

When the Golden Knights ripped off 14 straight wins, they enjoyed all the trappings. The articles were positive. Practice was a breeze every day. Their players were confident and went into every game knowing they would win.

The streak may be over. Nothing else has ended, though. Jones and his players put together that winning streak because they focused on their collective game. It showed in their dominance of every statistical category. Some of the numbers have come down. Jake Kielly's save percentage has normalized. The goals haven't come as easily. Not losing for two-and-a-half months shaded over a few holes. Their current struggles have made even more seem apparent.

Casey Jones isn't worried, though.

"We got away from our identity a bit, but we're not farm off from where we were during the unbeaten streak," he said.

He knows what he sees in practice.

Only the breaks have changed.

Clarkson hasn't.