With Jerome Powell appearing to make a "full blown" walk back to his October 3 remarks, when in the span of 2 months the Fed Chair said we went from "long way" from the neutral rate to "just below" it, many are speculating that the "Powell Put" was just born.

But was it?

The first objection many have made - and which we noted earlier - is that what Powell actually said is that Powell's full quote is just below the "broad range of estimates" of neutral, which is not 3.00% but 2.50% to 3.50%, and therefore while 2.00%-2.25% (which is where we are now) for example, is indeed "just below" the bottom end of the range, it is 3 hike equivalents from the median longer-run neutral forecast of 3.00%, and 5 from the top of the range. Indeed, Powell said nothing to suggest that he or the majority of the FOMC think they'll be able to stop at the bottom of the range, after just one more hike.

Still, this semantic nuance was not sufficient for the rest of Wall Street which appears to be torn, between those who think that Powell did not really veer too far from his October speech, and those who believe that the Fed Chair admits he made a "rookie mistake" in October and has just corrected.

Below are some opinions according to which the Powell Put is a far way from being born:

TD Securities, Gennadiy Goldberg

According to the rates strategist, the Treasury (and stock) market rally following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s statement that interest rates are “just below” neutral is overstating the dovishness of the comments. While the phrasing contrasts with Powell’s Oct. 3 comment that Fed is “a long way” from the neutral rate, Goldberg says “the market is seizing on any comment they can that suggests there’ll be a pause.” Goldberg also says that Powell also pointed in his Nov. 28 speech to positives in the economic outlook.

The subsequent rally in short-term rates should fade as markets digest the rest of Powell’s comments, Goldberg said, and markets shouldn’t take this as signal of a pause

“Powell will be reluctant to provide any sort of thing like that, as his prerogative has been optionality”

Pantheon Macro, Ian Shepherdson

According to Shepherdson, Powell may not be quite as dovish as markets think, repeating the "bottom of the range" argument shown up top/

He also said that "Powell’s own views might well be leaning to the dovish side, but he was not, in our view, signalling any impending change in the FOMC’s dots . As always, the Fed ultimately will do what the data tell them to do, and we think the 3.7%-and-falling unemployment rate leaves policymakers very little room for maneuver.''

. As always, the Fed ultimately will do what the data tell them to do, and we think the 3.7%-and-falling unemployment rate leaves policymakers very little room for maneuver.'' "The US labor market, which is what they're worried about, has not weakened appreciably in recent cycles with real rates less than 2%. Right now, they're zero, and unemployment is at 49-year low, and falling. The Fed has a lot more to do" Shepherdson concluded.

SocGen, Omar Sharif

The strategist sent out a note titled "Powell: Correcting a Rookie Mistake"

He writes "stating that the funds rate is now 'just below' neutral, or getting close to the range of estimates of neutral, is simply factual. It does not, in our view, meaningfully shift the odds that the Fed will hike to 3 percent before pausing (the market clearly disagrees with us)."

Meanwhile, here are those taking the dovish side of the argument:

BMO Securities, Jon Hill

Jerome Powell’s comments on Wednesday that interest rates are “just below” the neutral range implies that a pause in the central bank’s rate-hike cycle is closer than previously expected

The speech was a “bit dovish”; in October, Powell said that “we’re a long way from neutral at this point, probably”

BMO’s expectation for the first pause in the Fed’s “quarterly cadence” has incrementally moved up in reaction writes Hill, and adds that there’s a possibility that front-end rates will continue to decline, as 2Y UST yield briefly dropped below 2.8%

BMO Securities, Greg Anderson

With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comment that policy makers will be watching incoming economic and financial data, “the Powell put is born,” said BMO currency strategist Greg Anderson

Powell’s comments in a speech to the Economic Club of New York - - including that interest rates are “just below” the so-called neutral rate -- sparked a dollar sell-off; the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slid as much 0.5%, remaining inside its weekly range

He suggested “the Fed will slow its hikes or pause if financial markets freak out,” Anderson said. “And of course, they somewhat have been”

USD/JPY fell from about 114 to 113.44; Anderson recommends selling it intra-week down to 112.5, predicting it will reach “sub-110 and maybe even sub-108 prior to end-March”

FTN Financial Capital, Jim Vogel

Vogel writes that the market had "over reacted to Powell's apparently off-hand comments Oct 3 about "neutral" being far off, and is now over-reacting to "a well-placed, single line that says interest rates remain `just below the broad range of estimates' of neutral."

"As Powell said immediately after the `just below' adjective, gradual rate increases are an exercise in balance. Is that code for a thinking about a pause next year? Maybe. More likely, it means exactly what he said today and said frequently before. Policy depends on data, realizing there's the potential for a lagged impact to hikes already in place."

Of course, what really matters - at least for now - is the market's reaction, and according to traders and algos, Powell just admitted that whether it is the economy, the market, or Trump's repeated warnings, Powell has finally thrown in the towell. The result is a 1.4% spike in the S&P, which is now trading comfortably at 2,720...

... meanwhile the dollar is tumbling.