Analyzing the latest odds for the 2018 NBA Rookie of the Year by Max Holm

The Houston Rockets made several changes to their roster this summer. What will be the team’s rotation for next season? Let’s take a closer look.

To say the Houston Rockets‘ roster will look different on opening night of the 2017-18 season would be an understatement.

Gone are Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Sam Dekker and Montrezl Harrell. Enter Chris Paul, P.J. Tucker, Luc Mbah a Moute and Tarik Black. Houston will be one of the various Western Conference teams that vastly changed its roster this summer in hopes of competing with the Golden State Warriors.

However, when adding several quality players in the same offseason, it becomes interesting to predict and eventually find out how the regular season rotation shapes up. The Rockets added two similar players in Tucker and Mbah a Moute, and Black is a quality backup center who is now slotted to be a third-string center behind Nene.

Of course, Houston is still targeting Carmelo Anthony, which could significantly change the rotation. However, most indications point to the Rockets not giving up more than Ryan Anderson and a first round pick in such a (likely three- or four-team) deal.

Regardless, as it currently stands, we know what the starting lineup will be: Paul, James Harden, Trevor Ariza, Anderson and Clint Capela.

Last season, the first players off the bench were Sixth Man of the Year Eric Gordon and Nene. That should stay the same next season, especially as Mike D’Antoni staggers the minutes of his two all-time great guards. However, properly fitting Tucker and Mbah a Moute in a lineup is where things get interesting.

For their careers, Mbah a Moute has played 58 percent of his minutes at power forward, while Tucker has played 67 percent of his minutes at small forward. However, both are fairly limited shooters, and D’Antoni may want to avoid playing both at the forward positions together.

Even though Tucker shot 40 percent from beyond the arc with the Toronto Raptors last season, defenses still dare him to shoot and will be happy to concede threes from Tucker if that’s the best shot for the offense on a given possession.

Mbah a Moute shot 39.1 percent on three-pointers last season (playing primarily small forward), but only attempted 1.4 threes per game last season.

Will D’Antoni play both of them together alongside a traditional center like Nene? That could cramp the Rockets’ floor-spacing and shooting, which is incredibly important for their offense. A unique way to play both together is to put out a small-ball lineup that features Tucker at power forward and Mbah a Moute at center.

Such a lineup could feature any three of Paul, Harden, Gordon or Ariza to round out the lineup, which would have enough shooting and quality defenders on the floor. It’s a lineup that D’Antoni should certainly experiment with, especially as small-ball lineups become even more unique and popular.

Looking at Tarik Black, his role with the Rockets will be one similar to Montrezl Harrell‘s role last season: a third-string center that is the primary backup on nights that Nene rests. At this point in his career, Nene doesn’t play both ends of back-to-backs and sits out other random games in order to be fresh for his 15-20 minute stretches during key games.

Black won’t see consistent minutes on a game-in, game-out basis but he will have an important role on the bench unit, especially if Capela or Nene get injured for an extended stretch.

In the end, on a given night the Rockets will include a nine man rotation. Paul, Harden, Ariza, Anderson, Capela, Gordon, Nene, Tucker and Mbah a Moute. On certain nights Black will fill in for Nene, but the others should expect a defined role each game.

The Rockets are a deep team after trading a good amount of their rotational players in order to acquire Paul, but this season they should be a much improved defensive team.