Page 2 columnist

Whenever experts discuss the NBA draft, the phrase "It's an inexact science" always seems to pop up ... and it's an absolute crock. The draft is an exact science. Teams always make the same mistakes. Players always fail for the same reasons. The same dumb things always seem to happen. And people make the NBA draft out to be a labyrinth of "Matthew Perry dating Jennifer Capriati"-level proportions.



Jay Williams appears to be one of the can't-miss Top Tier players of 2002.

Well, it's not nearly that complicated. So because of the little-known clause in my contract that I get to play Robo-Journalist twice per year, I'm breaking down the draft process for you (and unleashing a ton of meaningless information, so proceed at your own risk).

You can separate the draft into four tiers:

Usually goes about seven or eight players deep, with a 90-95 percent success rate. Last year's class went seven deep ( Kwame Brown Eddie Griffin ) before it dropped to the next level, which begs the question, "Why don't teams try everything possible to move into the top group during the draft?"

For instance, the 2002 draft goes seven deep: Yao Ming Drew Gooden , the Eastern European Guy ( Nikoloz Tskitishvili ), Caron Butler ... and if you want to throw in the Brazilian Guy ( Maybyner Hilario ), that's fine, we can make it eight. So if you're Phoenix sitting at No. 9 this week, you're thinking, "All right, if we don't move up at least one spot, suddenly our odds drop from 90-95 percent to 50 percent." Why not just make a deal, for God's sake? Why wouldn't it be worth an extra No. 1 or a player to increase your odds from 50 percent to 95 percent?

(By the way, did you notice how I pulled a Hubie Brown and used the second person there? I'm full of tricks.)

Usually stretches from the No. 8-9 pick to the No. 14-15 pick, with at least two or three of these guys failing miserably (you have about a 40 percent chance of landing a starter in this group). Last year's Second Tier went seven deep ( DeSagana Diop Troy Murphy ) ... it's too early to tell which of those guys will pan out, although it's pretty safe to say that Diop will be sharing a condo with Yinka Dare, Luther Wright and Sharone Wright in a few years.



If the 1996 draft were held today, you can bet Kobe Bryant would go No. 1.

(Note: This is the region that usually makes or breaks a draft. For instance, the '96 draft produced Kobe Bryant, Peja Stojakovic, Kerry Kittles and Steve Nash in Tier No. 2. On the flip side, the 2000 draft didn't yield a single potential starter from No. 5 to No. 15, with the possible exception of Courtney Alexander. So you never know.)

Welcome to the second half of the first round ... start rollin' the dice! Will it come up Theo Ratliff ... or will it come up Billy Curley? Odds are, it's coming up Curley. Last year's class featured three Third Tier guys who showed potential ( Jason Collins Tony Parker ), two maybes ( Brendan Haywood and Zach Randolph ) and one foreign possibility ( Raul Lopez ), proving yet again that the success rate drops to about 20 percent here (sometimes even less). On the bright side, the chances of picking up a Goofy White Guy for your 12th man increase to 90-95 percent.

Now you're batting about 10 percent -- only two or three second rounders per season eventually contribute in an NBA eight-man rotation. Last year's class featured Trenton Hassell and Gilbert Arenas ... and that's it. Not exactly a murderer's row.

So those are the four levels, which could apply to any draft in the past two decades, with one major exception (the inexplicable, "X-Files"-esque 2000 draft, which featured three blue-chippers in the top five picks, an astounding 10 straight stinkers, then six consecutive sleeper picks), and one minor exception (the '97 draft , which featured a stronger pool from Nos. 8-14 than Nos. 2-7).

Here's the point: Only Tier No. 1 and Tier No. 2 really matter -- the first 13-14 picks, usually -- and it's a crapshoot after that. After Tier No. 2 closes, unless your team selects an overseas talent with signability questions -- such as Stojakovic (No. 14, 1996) or Andrei Kirilenko (No. 24, 1999) -- you're getting someone with A) a 12-15 percent chance of breaking your eight-man rotation some day, and B) a 5-10 percent chance of potentially starting for you. So why even keep a pick below No. 15? Why not trade it every year, then use the extra cash for a free agent (a cheaper veteran who could help for a year, such as Erick Strickland or Jimmy Jackson )? Doesn't that make more sense?

Anyway, because the same types of players are selected after Tier No. 2 in every draft, and because an overwhelming amount of them fail, here's my list of my "Top 10 Favorite Character Traits to Steer Away From After the Lottery." If your favorite team takes somebody out of one of these groups Wednesday night ... well, my sincerest condolences:

Guys who use workouts/camps to disguise the fact that they either A) sucked in college, B) underachieved in college, or C) didn't show their full games in college ... somehow they always rope one stupid GM into rolling the dice on them. I never understood the whole "Stock shooting up in the workouts" phenomenon. If someone's good, wouldn't you see that from them in college games? In Moiso 's case, he wasn't even one of the best three players on his team at UCLA ... after a few "impressive" workouts, suddenly he was one of the top 11 players in the 2000 draft? You're either good or you're not.

(2002 Example: Miami guard John Salmons , who's pulling a Johnny Taylor and climbing into the Top 25 this week. Did you ever watch a Miami game over the past four years and say, "Boy, that John Salmons has pro written all over him?" Now he might crack the Top 20. Go figure.)

There isn't a more dreaded word during draft week than "Tweener" -- guys either too small for the 4-spot and too big for the 3-spot (eg: Mark Madsen ), or too small for the 3-spot and too slow for the 2-spot (eg: Sam Jacobson). It's one thing when you have the talent of Tweeners such as Corliss Williamson Danny Fortson or Mo Taylor ... it's another thing when you're Hanno Mottola or Pete Mickeal. Just for the record, Brad Sellers and Brad Lohaus were my all-time favorite Tweeners. Any time there's a 7-footer who's afraid to rebound and seems more comfortable 20 feet from the basket, you know you have something special.



Where is an NBA team going to play a walking beanpole like Tayshaun Prince?

(2002 Example: Kentucky forward Tayshaun Prince ... 6-foot-9, 113 pounds. I can't even begin to imagine where an NBA contender would play him.)

Head cases who drop from the Top 10 because of character flaws or personal problems (eg: Courtney Alexander, Erick Barkley Donnell Harvey ). The worst thing that happened here was when Nick Van Exel dropped to the 37th pick in '93, then evolved into a Top 10 point guard ... ever since then, teams ignore the red flags and take flyers on these guys. Of course, even when they pan out (Fortson, Alexander, Ron Artest John Wallace ), they always seem to be better off playing 40 minutes a night for a crappy team. It's uncanny how that happens.

(2002 Example: Illinois guard Frank Williams ... you always worry when people question someone's work ethic in college. If they can't get motivated to play consistently hard in college -- with millions of dollars at stake for them down the road -- what makes you think these guys will suddenly start playing hard once they sign a four-year, multimillion contract? I don't get it.)

Head cases who are clearly insane, yethas to take them. Don't names such as Mamadou N'diaye (No. 26, 2000), Herren (No. 33, 1999), Tremaine Fowlkes (No. 54, 1998), God Shammgod (No. 46, 1997), Dontonio Wingfield (No. 37, 1994) and the immortal Dontae' Jones (No. 21, 1997) bring a smile to your face? Couldn't we put them on the same minor-league team, with Bob Huggins as coach?

(2002 Example: None. With many regrets.)

Quality college players from quality programs who seemed like definite first rounders during the season ... within three months, they dropped like stones. Remember when Scoonie Penn seemed like a mortal lock for the lottery? Miles Simon ? Tyus Edney? Dwayne Schintzius? Or my personal favorites from the '80s, Steve Alford and Scott Skiles?

(2002 Example: Casey Jacobsen . Won't you feel a little jolt when he goes No. 28 to the Lakers?)



No one will be surprised if Casey Jacobsen ends up next to Mark Madsen on the Lakers bench.

6. The Doug Edwardses

Guys with "NBA Bodies" who never seem to have an "NBA Game" to match (Jason Caffey, Corie Blount, Rodrick Rhodes, Soumaila Samake, Don MacLean, Mario Bennett, Dickey Simpkins, Cliff Rozier, etc.). An enjoyable group, if only because you see them on the court and always think to yourself, "Man, that guy looks like he should be good." And they never are.

(2002 Example: Tennessee forward Marcus Haislip . Last week, ESPN's Andy Katz wrote that Haislip "provides an intriguing glimpse into the future with his shot-blocking skills and raw offensive moves." Translation: "He's gonna suck.")

Guys destined for the minor leagues or Europe (eg: Khalid El-Amin, Schea Cotton, Chris Carrawell). You know them when you see them; it's an innate feel. Usually they came from big-time college programs, playing just well enough that you entertained "Hey, he might not make a bad pro" thoughts at least once in your life.

(2002 Example: Luke Recker . Again, you can't explain it.)

The proverbial "Shooting guard in a point guard's body." My favorite category, because one gets taken every year -- Randolph Childress, Randy Woods, James Robinson, Travis Mays, Erick Barkley, Eddie House A.J. Guyton , Joe Forte -- and never, ever,ends up contributing for a winning team. It's a mortal lock. House probably panned out better than any of these guys in the past 10 years ... would he have even seen the court if he played for the Lakers, Nets, Kings, Celtics or Mavs this spring? Of course not.

(2002 Example: Juan Dixon . Outstanding college player. Just terrific. And a helluva defensive player. But he can't handle the ball well enough to play point, and anyone who thinks he can play the 2-guard at the NBA level is obviously insane. So what's left? And by the way, I wouldn't be shocked if we were calling this group "The Dajuan Wagners" five years from now.)



Juan Dixon was a wonderful college player, but he's got NBA tweener written all over him.

9. The Geert Hamminks

Foreign guys with either a.) unpronounceable names (eg: Mamadou N'diaye, Dalibor Bagaric), or b.) names that just don't sound like names for a quality NBA player (Frederic Weis, George Zidek). These guys never make it unless they have "Kirilenko-Stojavokic"-level talent, yet they're staying in Europe for seasoning.

(2002 Example: Croatian center Nenad Krstic . I know nothing about him ... just seems like he fits the mold.)

Stiff centers who will never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever,contribute for more than 10 minutes a game (and we use the term "contribute" loosely). Of course, this is my favorite group. Check out this list of BWG's (Big White Guys over the height of 6-9) taken between the ninth and 35th picks in the past 12 years, then tell me if you would go anywhere near Curtis Borchardt this year:

Alec Kessler ... Rich King ... Adam Keefe ... Weis ... Haskin ... Eric Montross ... Cherokee Parks ... Loren Meyer ... Todd Fuller ... Les Jepsen ... Bill Curley ... Chris Anstey ... Scot Pollard ... Paul Grant ... Michael Doleac ... Jim McIlvaine ... Gheorghe Muresan ... George Zidek ... Jeff Foster ... Scott Padgett ... Joel Przybilla ... Jason Collier ... Vitaly Potapenko ... Hammink ... Murphy ... Jake Tsakalidis ... Michael Bradley ... Bruno Sundov ... Kirk Haston ... Travis Knight ... Radoslav Nesterovic ... Jake Voskuhl ... Evan Eschmeyer ... Alex Radojevic ... Zydrunas Ilgauskas ... Brian Evans ... Greg Ostertag ... Loren Meyer ... Dwayne Schintzius ... Primor Brezic.

Good God! Even "CSI" doesn't feature that many stiffs. Out of those 41 players, Foster, Pollard and Ostertag were the only three Americans who even remotely panned out; Nesterovic and Potapenko could be considered "mediocre"; Murphy showed a little potential; and Ilgauskas could have been special if not for his foot problems. That's eight players in all -- none ever made an All-Star team, only two started for extended stretches, and only Ostertag ever played for a serious contender (two if you count Todd McCulloch, drafted No. 47 back in 1999). So why even go there? Why even roll the dice?



Beware of any 7-footer who likes to play 15 feet from the hoop, such as Stanford's Curtis Borchardt.

(2002 Example: Borchardt. I can't wait for someone to take him in the Top 10 this season. I'm giggling just thinking about it.)

***** ***** *****

So that's how the draft process breaks down. Make no mistake, there's a method to this madness: The first two tiers always seem to sort themselves out; you need luck and skill to navigate your way through Tier No. 3; and hitting big in Tier No. 4 is like hitting big on a scratch card -- it happens once every 10 years.

(Robo-Journalist Alert! Robo Journalist Alert!)

Just to prove my "90 percent-50 percent-15 percent-5 percent theory," I'm zooming through the last 10 drafts. Keep in mind, we're separating each draft into tiers based on, not how they would feel today. For instance, as amazing as this sounds, Calbert Cheaney and Bobby Hurley were once considered to be blue-chippers back in '93. There's a reason they were two of the best guys on the team that played Nolte, Shaq and Penny at the end of "Blue Chips."

Anyway ...

2001

Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Pau Gasol, Eddy Curry, Jason Richardson, Shane Battier, Eddie Griffin

No. 8 (DeSagana Diop)

Diop, Rodney White, Joe Johnson, Kedrick Brown, Vlad Radmanovic, Richard Jefferson, Troy Murphy (too early to tell who makes it)

No. 15 ( Steven Hunter

Jason Collins (No. 18); Jamaal Tinsley (No. 28); Tony Parker (No. 29)

Trenton Hassell, Gilbert Arenas

Gasol, Chandler, Richardson, Curry, Battier, Brown, Griffin

(Note: I hate judging drafts this early, but I can't imagine any circumstance under which we'll say the words, "MJ made the right move taking Kwame over Gasol.")

Busts 'R' Us My Favorite Busts From the '90s: 15. Frederic Weis (1999, No.15) -- You never hear anyone say, "I can't believe Fred Weis never made it." 14. Adonal Foyle (1997, No. 8) -- The first Patriot League player to become a Lottery pick ... and the last. 13. Todd Fuller (1996, No. 11) -- G-State passed up Kobe, Peja, Nash and Jermaine O'Neal for him. Classic Warriors. 12. Bo Kimble (1990, No. 8) -- I'm still amazed that he never made it. Didn't he have skills or am I crazy? 11. Dontae Jones (1997, No. 21) -- The classic "This guy's nuts, but we'll roll the dice with him, anyway" pick by the Knicks ... made even better by the fact that Rick Pitino traded for him. 10. Mark Macon (1991, No. 8) -- A shooting guard who couldn't shoot. 9. George Zidek (1995, No. 22) -- I remember giggling when the Hornets took this guy. I mean, didn't they see him in college? Did they really think the running lefty hook would translate on an NBA scale? 8. Robert Traylor (1998, No. 6) -- Over Pierce and Nowitzki. Absolutely unbelievable. 7. Larry Hughes (1998, No. 8) -- Ditto. 6. Willie Burton (1990, No. 9) -- Scored 50 points in a game and was hospitalized for depression shortly thereafter. Heat fans really ran the gamut of emotions with Willie. 5. Todd Day (1992, No. 8) -- The human ebola virus. Maybe the most despicable Celtic of all-time. 4. Harold Miner (1992, No. 12) -- Hey, it's baby MJ! Would anyone like to adopt him? 3. Luther Wright (1993, No. 18) -- A serious head case. 2. Yinka Dare (1994, No. 14) -- Not only was he a colossal bust from Day One, but it actually took the Nets five full years to get him off their roster and return him back to the morgue. 1. Bill Curley (1994, No. 22) -- Before the '94 Draft, I vowed that Curley would be a bigger stiff than Bernie Lomax; my Dad thought Curley was the next Dave Cowens. In other words, I got a decade's worth of father-son bragging rights from the Bill Curley Era. Just beautiful.

2000

No. 6 ( DerMarr Johnson

None (Johnson, Chris Mihm Jamal Crawford , Przybilla, Dooling, Moiso, Thomas, Alexander and Cleaves -- yikes)

No. 14 (Cleaves)

Eddie House, Michael Redd

Martin, Miles, Miller (and that's it)

(Note: Just the weirdest draft ever. More "Unequivocal Busts" then "Potential All-Stars" in the Top 15, then there were six consecutive solid picks from No. 16-21. There's a distinct chance that this draft might never yield an All-Star. Not one.)

1999

No. 10 ( Jason Terry

Terry, Corey Maggette

No. 14 ( William Avery

Ron Artest (No. 16); James Posey (No. 19); Jeff Foster (No. 21); Kenny Thomas (No. 22)

Todd McCulloch, Lee Nailon

Francis, Davis, Miller, Marion, Brand, Hamilton, Terry, Szczerbiak, Odom

(Note: If Lamar Odom hadn't thrown his career in the toilet, this draft could have ranked right up there with the '98, '85, '84 and '81 Drafts as one of the Top 5 drafts of the past 25 years. And it still might. The "Francis vs. Davis vs. Miller at No. 1" argument is a good one.)

1998

No. 11 ( Bonzi Wells

Wells, Keon Clark

No. 16 ( Bryce Drew

Nowitzki, Pierce, Carter, Bibby, Olowakandi, Jamison, Lewis, Wells, LaFrentz

(Note: Maybe the deepest draft of all-time -- this baby yielded 21 starters, four franchise guys and at least 10 possible All-Stars. Tough to top. And it doubled as the most interesting draft to watch while it was actually happening.)

1997

No. 8 ( Adonal Foyle

No. 15 ( Kelvin Cato

Duncan, McGrady, Van Horn

(Note: Yucky draft. I'm not even sure if Van Horn should count as a Tier No. 1 Guy ... I was just being generous. This thing was more top-heavy than Christy Canyon.)

1996

No. 7 ( Lorenzen Wright

Kobe Bryant, Stojakovic, Kittles, Nash

No. 16 ( Tony Delk

Bryant, Iverson, Allen, Walker, Abdur-Rahim, O'Neal, Stojakovic, Nash, Camby

(Note: Maybe the most important draft in NBA history, if only because it came along at a time when the league desperately needed a talent infusion. It also yielded the two most important NBA players of the past nine drafts -- Kobe and Iverson.)

1995

No. 8 (Shawn Respert)

No. 16, Alan Henderson

Theo Ratliff (No. 18); Michael Finley (No. 21); Greg Ostertag (No. 28)

Garnett, Wallace, McDyess, Stackhouse, Finley, Ratliff, Stoudamire

(Note: This one fits my Draft Model perfectly -- seven deep at the top, three more guys hitting from No. 8-15, three more hitting in the second half, then one good second rounder. Bonus points here because Fred Hoiberg and Constantin Popa went back-to-back in the second round. Good times!)

1994

No. 6 (Sharone Wright)

No. 14 (Yinka Dare)

Kidd, Hill, Rose, Robinson, Jones, Marshall, Howard, Grant

(Note: Looks much better on paper than it actually ended up turning out ... out of the Top Tier Guys, only the Big Dog still plays with his original team, and that probably changes this summer. Don't you love seeing the Yinka Express in there, by the way?)

1993

No. 9 ( Rodney Rogers

Rogers, Allan Houston

No. 15 (Scott Haskin)

Lucious Harris , Nick Van Exel, Bryon Russell

Webber, Hardaway, Mashburn, Houston, Baker, Van Exel, Rider

(Note: This might have been the all-time Head Case Draft -- C-Webb, Penny, Rider, Baker, Cassell and Van Exel. What was in the water that year?)

1992

No. 8 (Todd Day)

No. 16 (Randy Woods)

P.J. Brown, Matt Geiger

Shaq, Mourning, Sprewell, Gugliotta, Horry, Laettner, Ellis

(Note: Strange draft. The NBA draft yielded two franchise centers since Mr. Robinson in '87, and somehow those two centers went 1-2 in the same draft. I think it's even weirder that Laettner, Jackson, Googs, Williams and Ellis all had the same career -- they peaked early, ended up underachieving and suffering some bad luck, and yet they all made some money. Plus, Bob Horry -- the NBA's version of Nate Dogg -- was involved in this draft. And Doug Christie, the most whipped professional athlete of all-time. Weird all around. This might be the best "On Paper" draft of all-time.)

And just for fun ...

2002 (projected)

Ming, Williams, Dunleavy Jr., Gooden, Wilcox, Butler, Hilario, Tskitishvilli

No. 9 (Jared Jeffries)

No. 15 (Qyntel Woods)

Dan Dickau (No. 20), Dan Gadzuric (No. 23)

????

Williams, Dunleavy, Wilcox, Wagner, Hilario, Ming, Gooden, Stoudamire

(And yes, I think Yao Ming will be a semi-bust. Not a colossal bust on the Bradley Scale, but a semi-bust. More on this in Wednesday night's Draft Diary ...)