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Fedor Emelianenko fought 32 opponents before he ever suffered a real defeat. For more than a decade, the undersized and soft-spoken Russian thrilled the world of mixed martial arts by taking on David-and-Goliath mismatches and delivering dramatic victories that defied expectations and earned him nicknames like “The Baddest Man On The Planet” and “The Last Emperor”.

Fedor is an aging monarch, one of the last active stars from the golden age of MMA. Despite a series of disappointing losses that led to his 2012 retirement, and underwhelming wins against two handpicked opponents since his 2015 return, the buildup around this Saturday night’s matchup with UFC veteran Matt Mitrione is testament to Fedor’s enduring intrigue.

But we can’t ignore the time and physics.

Six years have passed since Fedor’s unbeaten streak ended in a stunning first round submission loss to Fabricio Werdum. Subsequent performances have seen thr PRIDE veteran struggle outside his comfort zone in the cage against larger, younger fighters. Tonight at Bellator 172, he returns to that cage yet again to take on the younger, larger Mitrione in a matchup that doesn’t favor the Russian.

In Fedor’s last fight, a highly controversial decision win over Fabio Maldonado, he bore less resemblance to the juggernaut of his Pride-era career than a stubborn, aging fighter whose competitive drive has outlasted his ability to actually compete — resulting in damage to both visage and reputation.

A recent comeback attempt by retired former UFC champion BJ Penn served as a poignant reminder that training and desire cannot turn back the clock. If Fedor’s performance against Maldonado was any indication, his training regimen won’t have him ready to compete for 5 rounds. Combined with what has been an arguably disastrous transition from the ring to the cage, we probably shouldn’t expect Fedor to reclaim his throne.

What We Know

Fedor’s signature has always been his stoic, inhuman poise, and he has a highlight reel of screaming analysts to prove it. In the PRIDE and Affliction days, his unflappable demeanor was an asset as he walked down comically oversized opponents and controlled the action. Fight after fight, larger challengers stepped up only to be taken off their game by Fedor’s aggressive style.

The problem is that Fedor is no longer fighting in PRIDE circus. On stats and facts, Matt Mitrione is not a good matchup — he has a fluid, loose boxing style, powerful leg kicks (when he uses them,) and the kind of athletic footwork you’d expect from a former NFL lineman. Mitrione’s huge reach advantage can easily keep Fedor at bay and grind him down; if he’s patient and keeps his own head protected, the knockout will probably come.

What the Tapes Don’t Show

Mitrione is something of an underachiever; despite being one of the most athletically gifted big men in MMA, he just hasn’t been able to get enough consecutive wins to be a contender, let alone stay on the UFC roster. He has something to prove and, if he’s smart, a few years left to do it, but his toughest opponent to date seems to be himself.

Fedor is smaller and older than Mitrione, but what really puts him at a disadvantage is his fearless style that was once seen as aggressive but now seems reckless. Since first stepping into the cage six years ago, Fedor’s taken head damage in all but one fight.

If the fight does go to a decision it is likely that Fedor will get dinged up in the process, and off his home soil it is unlikely that Bellator will extend such a generous decision as the Maldanado win.

Experience has always been Fedor’s advantage, and not just miles but overcoming adversity — which means bouncing back from injuries or bad rounds or near submissions to turn the tables on consistently larger opponents, snatching unlikely victory from the jaws of a near-certain defeat.

The Dying of the Light

Based on the facts and his recent fights it’s unlikely Fedor will walk away victorious; his bouts against Rogers, Silva and Henderson showed how lost Fedor is inside the cage, and the Maldonado fiasco seems to confirm he hasn’t tried to adapt his skill set to the format.

But nothing is for certain, and they say a last thing to leave a fighter is his punch. If Fedor can find an opening and land a hard shot or otherwise get Mitrione to the canvas, he’ll hold an advantage in the submission game.

The challenge for the reckless Russian will be having the discipline to leverage his fearless style and not let it be his undoing, as has been the case of late. It’s anyone’s guess what Mitrione’s game plan includes but it’s safe to say he’ll be prepared weather an early storm, and if he can do that much his numerous advantages will make victory all but certain.

Fedor, on the other hand, will likely lose this fight but can still emerge a winner by showing the discipline and heart that helped him remain undefeated for nearly a decade. He has nothing left to prove; he needs only to remind the world why they gave him the nickname “The Last Emperor.” His reign may long be over, but the buzz around this fight is a reminder that people will always stand in line to catch a glimpse of royalty.