The New England Patriots are always one of the Super Bowl favorites, particularly in the AFC. This year, with the retirement of Peyton Manning and the Patriots starting the year at 3-1 without Tom Brady, the smart money is once again on New England. But this is the NFL. Teams are consistently rising and falling. So who poses the greatest threat to a Patriots Super Bowl run?

The Greatest Threat to a New England Patriots Super Bowl Run

To start let’s take a basic look at how the Patriots are built. They have a defense that gives up yards, but not touchdowns. They are often criticized for their defense, but this bend but don’t break approach is a great strategy when you have an offense that you know can score points. With Tom Brady at quarterback, and a kicker like Stephen Gostkowski, this team knows they can score points.

Their ability to score touchdowns rather than field goals certainly took a hit when they lost Rob Gronkowski to injury. Gronkowski was Brady’s greatest weapon, especially inside the forty-yard line. The Patriots, however have other means of scoring touchdowns, and could get some help from a pair of fresh a faced receivers in emerging talent Malcolm Mitchell and recently-acquired Michael Floyd.

The Data

In order to beat the Patriots, you must break the defense and go blow-for-blow with the Pats offense. The Patriots have scored 26.1 points per game this season. The only playoff contenders who have scored more points per game than the Patriots are the Atlanta Falcons (33.5) and the Oakland Raiders (26.9). Most of the playoff contenders at this point in the season are averaging over 21 points per game.

Another important statistic to examine is turnovers. The Patriots don’t turn the ball over very often, but they also don’t create many turnovers defensively. A team could gain a major advantage verses the Patriots by tilting this statistic in their favor. Creating a turnover creates a scoring opportunity and takes a scoring opportunity away from the Patriots. NFL takeaway leaders who are in playoff hunt include the Kansas City Chiefs (28), the Raiders, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Baltimore Ravens (each with 26). These teams score between 21.9 and 22.8 points per game with the exception of the Raiders who, as noted above, have scored 27.5 points per game.

So Who Could Stop the Pats?

The Raiders have shown this season that they have the ability to score points and create turnovers. They have several play-makers on offense and are battle tested, having come through the best division in the NFL this season. Fifteen years after the tuck rule game, could this be the year the Raiders get their revenge? The statistics tells us there is a chance, but only time will tell for sure.

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