I didn’t have a preseason board this year, partially because I wasn’t especially comfortable with a particular format, and partially because life got in the way and I couldn’t have one ready in time. So this will be my first “ranking” of prospects for the 2019 NBA Draft, and it will be in a new (for me) format.

For the most part it is governed by upside. I am ranking these players in order of how much value I believe they will potentially provide the team that drafts them accounting for their first contract, positional/role scarcity, and above all, what they can add in the postseason. Those are the things that I value, not necessarily bankable productivity if it doesn’t come along with impacting winning at a high level or if it is easily replaceable. And of course while expected value matters, stars drive the league, so star potential drives this board. Where star potential no longer exists, upside drives it, since at that point floors (and eventually median/expected outcomes too) are simply varying degrees of non-NBA-playerness.

Though this board is not unique here, the main areas I will probably deviate from consensus are on small combo guards and backup point guards with some exceptions. Developmental bigs like Charles Bassey and Kenny Wooten don’t interest me very much for draft purposes. These players can often be cheaply picked up as needed from the G-League, overseas and elsewhere on the margins. In many cases they’re useful as regular season stopgaps and see their playing time and positive impact decline in the postseason. These are just not player types I generally believe are worth gambling on with draft capital.

Conversely, I value dribble-pass-shoot wings that can competently defend and make good, quick decisions. Those players impact winning in the NBA, often regardless of usage. Of course only a small group of prospects can actually do all of those things at once, but those are some of my main criteria when determining draft worthiness or viability as a two-way candidate or stash of some kind. In short, does a prospect have a realistic pathway to scalable impact? There are other ways to be valuable; I won’t only be ranking wings, but that’s how I would sum up what I seek in prospects.

Feel free to skip this brief nihilistic aside, but if you want to know why I went with this format, this paragraph will explain why. I went back-and-forth a bit whether to do a traditional top ~100 or rank a smaller amount of prospects, limiting the crop to players I think are clearly worthy of a draft selection at some level, grouping them in tiers with explanations rather than assigning each a number that at a certain point becomes meaningless. I ended up deciding that the latter would be more useful and reflect more accurately my thoughts on this draft. Why would I bother having players ranked at 89 and 90 if there’s virtually no difference between the two? How am I supposed to pretend there is any kind of firm delineation between prospects at that level when A) the actual draft ends at 60 and B) I’m not drafting with a specific team with specific goals and a specific roster in mind? At that point, numbers and rankings offer no crystallization because there is no firm delineation between players. The intentions of this board are chiefly to structure the talent and projection of this draft class to the degree that it can be meaningfully structured and to highlight some underappreciated names.

Tier One

Zion Williamson

He is the best NBA prospect since at least Anthony Davis, and probably since Lebron James. His combination of skill, instincts, and superhuman explosiveness and coordination make him simultaneously the safest bet in this draft while also possessing the class’s highest upside. His success does not hinge upon the development of a reliable jumper, though it would certainly make him reaching his GOAT ceiling more likely.

His hop step will immediately be one of the league’s most devastating moves. He is a high-level ball handler (especially for his height and weight) that can use his combination of speed-to-power athleticism, steparound agility, coordination and quickness off the floor to punish defenders off the ball without necessarily drawing hard closeouts. His ability to skip through the lane, explode in tight spaces and elevate is almost reminiscent of Derrick Rose, but of course Williamson does this with different aesthetics in a truck-like frame. As a freshman he is having arguably the best individual NCAA men’s season ever. There’s no reason to nitpick here: Zion at number one should be an easy choice for any team.

Tier Two

Romeo Langford

Kevin Porter

Jarrett Culver

Jontay Porter

I believe these prospects possess legitimate All-NBA upside, but with more risk than Williamson and more glaring flaws. Romeo Langford is an deeply imperfect but a good defender with touch indicative of star scorer potential. I believe he can improve his defensive weaknesses; I also believe in his jumper a bit more than most given his track record before Indiana. I believe Kevin Porter’s easy vertical athleticism in tight spaces that has popped off his film since high school qualifies as an outlier trait, though his basketball instincts leave something to be desired.

Jontay Porter’s injury provides some reason for consternation but his game was never predicated on explosiveness anyways. He’ll succeed with elite offensive IQ, feel and skill level. And of course Jarrett Culver’s freshman-to-sophomore leap, while not wholly unpredictable, has vaulted him into rarefied air in terms of usage, efficiency and all-around per-possession productivity.

Tier Three

R.J. Barrett

Grant Williams

Brandon Clarke

Bol Bol

Killian Tillie

Deividas Sirvydis

Jordan Poole

Coby White

Ignas Brazdeikis

Sekou Doumbouya

Tre Jones

Ja Morant

Daniel Gafford

De’Andre Hunter

Jaxson Hayes

This tier is kind of a morass, but it’s tough for me to find separation looking at these prospects in a vacuum. There is some loose order here, but virtually any two players in this group have arguments for and against one another, especially when you consider that the teams drafting in this range (mid-lottery and back-end playoff teams) will have very different immediate and long-term goals, rosters and priorities. As an example, if I were making decisions for the Boston Celtics, I would draft Tre Jones ahead of Ja Morant. If I were making decisions for the Phoenix Suns or Orlando Magic, I would go the other direction.

To explain some of these rankings briefly: Grant Williams and Brandon Clarke are extremely, extremely good at basketball. I’m lower than consensus on Ja Morant because he’s a bad defensive prospect, mostly an open-floor athlete and requires significant time and space to release his jumper, all of which I believe hinder his high-end upside, while his skinny frame and questionable decision-making lower his floor. I believe he still warrants placement in this tier (and in many cases would deserve selection at the high end of this tier) because he’s shown enough off-the-dribble scoring instincts and ability, passing creativity, and skill as a below-rim finisher to buy into his upside to an extent – certainly to a greater degree than the rest of this point guard class. And if his athleticism reaches a more functional state over time (which is realistic to anticipate) he a strong candidate for the second tier of this board.

I’ve written about Sirvydis before – I am a big believer in the value of his skillset and offensive IQ. Reports that he may measure greater than 6-foot-8 without shoes gives me even more faith in the high-level translation of his quick off-movement shot release, pull-up shooting and see-over passing.

Daniel Gafford and Jaxson Hayes is an interesting debate, Hayes is of course more risky given his rawness but is a better natural athlete and likely possesses a steeper improvement trajectory as he gains more repetition. The direction you go here might depend on where your franchise is. In a vacuum I might lean Hayes because of upside but Gafford is better all-around right now, and I would argue his agility has become a bit underrated.

I should also add that I think De’Andre Hunter is a very good prospect. I present this board as evidence of this belief. He finds himself well outside of the top 5 because I don’t believe he has superstar upside on either end of the court. His burgeoning faceup game provides cause for encouragement in this regard but doesn’t have the ball-handling, shot creation, shot diversity, defensive havoc-creation potential or overall perimeter creation ability I look for in the top 5 or even 10 particularly at his age. For what it’s worth, he’s closer to tier four than tier two.

Tier Four

Keldon Johnson

Talen Horton-Tucker

Nassir Little

Goga Bitadze

Ty Jerome

Dean Wade

Darius Garland

Aaron Nesmith

Chuma Okeke

Yovel Zoosman

KZ Okpala

P.J. Washington

Cam Reddish

Charles Matthews

Matisse Thybulle

Here is a handful of guys I believe are also distinctly pick-worthy. Nassir Little finds a place here because I still believe he’s interesting as a power forward long term. The rest of this group should translate smoothly as good, winning role players assuming a thing or two goes right for them. There is almost zero star upside here to my eye, but there are standouts at their current levels, possessing a small number (if more than one) of elite skills with a fair amount of ancillary skills to make them worthwhile.

I’ve gradually come around on Okpala as his shooting indicators appear to be stabilizing in a comfortable territory, and while I remain a skeptic of his handling functionality and his defense translating, his fluidity, size and off-court green flags become tough to pass up at a certain point in the draft.

Luguentz Dort has a sub-50 percent true shooting percentage now so lottery range for him is an almost-impossible sell. But I’m still a believer in his driving, strength functionality and foul-drawing to an extent, and if his decision-making can be fine-tuned over time he can become the player many were projecting after his hot start to the season (worth noting here that I am of the belief many of his struggles finishing around the rim are correctable with decision-making improvements). I’m still watching him for a potential return to this range of the draft.

I would also like to hammer home what Yovel Zoosman has been doing this year. After winning the MVP award of this summer’s European U20 competition, he is contributing vital and impactful minutes to Euroleague’s Maccabi FOX Tel Aviv, and while Maccabi has had a disappointing season, his performance at his age has been remarkable. I’m not even going to cite his raw net rating impact here because the numbers are laughably huge on both ends of the court – suffice it to say that he plays hard, he plays smart, he has excellent and functional physical tools (reported wingspan of 7-foot-1+ in the same ESPN article I cited earlier) and has already proven his worth defending Euroleague’s very best across multiple positions. He may not enter until next year, but whenever he does enter, NBA teams should absolutely not let Zoosman go undrafted.

I come down a bit lower than consensus on Darius Garland because from a philosophical standpoint I don’t see serious lottery upside marrying your team’s offense to a point guard that struggles with decision-making and that will be a profound negative defensively.

Others Worth Noting

Alen Smailagic

Carsen Edwards

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Didi Louzada

Zoran Paunovic

Vrenz Bleijenbergh

Markell Johnson

Shamorie Ponds

Tremont Waters

Cameron McGriff

Mike Daum

Nic Claxton

EJ Montgomery

Ethan Happ

Xavier Johnson

Lukasz Kolenda

Neemias Queta

Ayo Dosunmu

Aric Holman

Jarron Cumberland

Juwan Morgan

I wouldn’t necessarily call this grouping “the best of the rest,” but these are a handful of names that I’m eyeing either as underrated or as potential risers over the rest of the season. Kolenda and Queta being placed side-by-side is intentional, as Kolenda was far and away the best player in the U20 B Division tournament they both partook in this summer, and Queta has translated to the college level surprisingly well, as has U20 (A Division) compatriot Davide Moretti in his second year as a point guard with Texas Tech. While Queta and Kolenda couldn’t be more different as players, I believe Kolenda could potentially be just as productive as he or Moretti had he taken the same route, and deserves consideration to roughly the same extent those two do.

Some of these players I’m eyeing more for two-way contract purposes (Cameron McGriff a chief example), others more for the 2020 draft (Bleijenbergh jumps out the most in this regard). Bruno Fernando, Jalen Smith, Miye Oni, Juwan Durham, Devon Dotson and Jon Teske are a few more that warrant mentions in this region. EJ Montgomery is looking like he could be a market inefficiency. It was widely accepted to have him at least in the first round, if not the lottery, before the season started, and even among those highest on him it was to be expected that playing for Kentucky would bury him and the traits that made him a unique prospect. That certainly appears to be happening.

Didi Louzada also might not enter this year, but I think it’s imperative he at least gets on some more radars. Louzada’s otherworldly scoring efficiency is buoyed by unsustainable shooting, but he’s an elite on-ball and team defender and his strength is already translating at the professional level. He makes quick reads and strong second efforts rotating, cutting off driving lanes and contesting, and is fairly advanced stepping around screens and withstanding bumps through his upper body. He is a rudimentary ball handler but excels at using his body to get to his spots and finish with touch. He is also an exceptional athlete leaping off of one foot and sliding laterally on the defensive end. Among eligible international prospects, I’d argue only Doumbouya, Sirvydis, Zoosman and Bitadze are clearly better. Even those last two are slightly dubious depending on where Louzada settles in as a shooter (as it stands, his attempt rate and quick ball pickup are encouraging, but his lower body and elbow positioning are both wildly inconsistent). Anyway, here is a brief clip of Louzada defending the ball.

To wrap this up, I hope I was able to highlight for you some standout prospects worthy of your time and consideration, and paint with broad strokes (as narrow as realistically possible but broad nonetheless) a picture of how I think this class shakes out in terms of talent and projection. I don’t intend for this to be comprehensive, but I hope for it to be clarifying on some level as it was for me and for it to aid in your process if possible.