Ever since the trade talk about Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki ramped up mid-summer, I seem to read the same line every other day. It goes something like this: they’re injured, and their trade value is therefore diminished, so in order to execute a successful trade the Rockies will either have to rebuild their value in 2015 prior to trading, sell low as part of a money dump, or eat a significant chunk of either player’s salary. This isn’t necessarily the consensus opinion, but it is popular.

It’s also wrong. In this post, I set aside Tulowitzki and focus on Carlos Gonzalez, as CarGo is far more likely to be traded than Tulo. My aim in this post is to show that if the Rockies do choose to trade him, they should neither sell low nor agree to pay a significant portion of his contract. Then, I transition to playing general manager and propose a specific trade scenario. It should be read as an example of the parameters of what I think a workable trade might look like, as well as an addition to my proposal—quasi-demand, really—that the Rockies sign free agent catcher Russell Martin this offseason.

First, it’s necessary to establish Gonzalez’s past and future value. We’ll do so based on the market value of a win above replacement, which is currently about 6.5 million, vis-à-vis Gonzalez’s contract. I’ll use Baseball Prospectus’s Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) because their PECOTA projection system has the most detailed future estimates. We’ll start in the past and take into account Gonzalez’s last three years.

Based on the market value of a win, Carlos Gonzalez from 2012 to 2014 has well outperformed his contract, even if we adjust the past market value of a win downward. His 6.8 WARP over that span has a market value of 44.2 million. He’s averaged 2.3 WARP per season over this time period, and the value he’s produced relative to the money the Rockies paid him demonstrate just how smart it was to extend his contract when the team did. However, neither his WARP nor his earnings were distributed evenly over the past three years. If we parse his production and earnings into years, we see that Gonzalez has had two seasons were his contract looked like an absolute steal and one black-hole year. In 2012, Gonzalez outperformed his earnings by producing 1.7 WARP on a five million dollar salary. In the following season out-produced once again, but this time he did so by a lot more by putting up 3.6 WARP for 7.5 million. Then, in his lost 2014 season, his -0.7 WARP and 10.5 million dollar salary indicates that he was paid a whole lot more than the value he produced on the field. The salient point is that we have to consider more than one season when gauging the value of Gonzalez’s contract, whether as a team or a trade asset. Despite a lost season, Gonzalez has been underpaid.

The final three years of Gonzalez’s contract are more important when considering his trade value. The only way I see CarGo not living up to the remainder of the money he is owed on his contract is if he becomes a below average player, or if his injuries are so chronic that he averages fewer than 400 plate appearances over the next three years. I don’t see either happening.

First, let’s look at the rosiest projections I’ve seen regarding Gonzalez over the next three years. Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA system projects Gonzalez to produce 3.6, 4.1, and 4.2 WARP over the next three years. Without adjusting for inflation, that’s a value of 77.35 million dollars. In other words, PECOTA projects Gonzalez to have a surplus value of 24.35 million dollars. The caveat with these estimations is that they are based on 611, 635, and 623 plate appearances over the next three years. The recent past instructs us that those predictions are a bit too high. But if we take those projections to be based on Gonzalez’s skill as a baseball player and adjust down for periods on the disabled list, he’s still an excellent player—entering his age 29 season, by the way—on a very team friendly contract.

Let’s now let the past three years guide us for the next three. Gonzalez has averaged 432 plate appearances over the past three years. It’s only that low because of his injury riddled 2014, where he had just 281 plate appearances, so this estimate is conservative. If we apply that number to the PECOTA projections over the next three, construing the estimation as a WARP/432, Gonzalez would then be expected to produce 2.4, 2.8, and 2.9 WARP in 2015, 2016, and 2017. Again taking the market value of a win and not adjusting for inflation, that means 8.1 WARP over the next three seasons, which is worth 52.65 million dollars. That is essentially equivalent to the 53 million dollars CarGo will earn for the final years of his contract. Again, that’s adjusting his playing time down to just 432 plate appearances per year. It essentially accounts for another completely lost year.

The contextual factor that will influence any trade negotiation will be Gonzalez’s recent knee surgery. So let’s lower his projections even more. If Gonzalez produces just two WARP per season over the next three seasons—in other words, if he becomes a league average player either by reduced playing time or diminished performance—he’d be worth 39 million dollars based on the current market value of a win. That doesn’t adjust for inflation, however. Conservatively, if we estimate that the market value of a win increases by just 0.25 million over the next three years, then league average Carlos Gonzalez will be worth 42 million dollars. Based on another estimation, if Gonzalez averages 2.25 WARP over the next three seasons, like the last three, then his value comes out to 47.25 million. These estimates are not worst case scenario, but they are conservative. Essentially, if Gonzalez is healthy enough to play about 115 games and accrue about 450 plate appearances, I expect him to produce a value beyond the 53 million he will be paid over the next three years. Put another way, if a team agrees to take on CarGo’s full contract as part of a trade, they’ll be paying about 2.5 million dollars per year more for his age 29, 30, and 31 seasons than the Mets gave 33 year old Curtis Granderson last offseason.

Whether the Rockies should or should not trade Gonzalez have to do with the Rockies window of contention. If the team truly believes that they will contend for a playoff spot next year, then they should probably keep CarGo. If the Rockies aim to build toward a window of contention beginning in 2016 or 2017, then they should trade him. What they should not do, however, is trade him for players without big league experience, especially pitchers.

But what team, you may or may not be asking, would be willing to do that, and what team has the need of a bat and surplus value where the Rockies are lacking to execute a trade? That team, I believe, is the Seattle Mariners.

My dream trade is this: the Rockies trade Carlos Gonzalez to the Seattle Mariners for James Paxton. Here’s why I think it makes sense for both parties. Such a deal would likely include more players, such as Wilin Rosario on the Rockies end and catching prospect Tyler Marlette on the other, but let’s just focus on the key exchange.

The Mariners need someone like Carlos Gonzalez because they desperately need more offensive fire power if they want to compete in the AL West over the next couple years. The Mariners team OPS this season is .678, which ranks 25th in baseball. They are one of three teams in the bottom third of the league in OPS that are in serious contention for a playoff spot. The other two are the Kansas City Royals and the Atlanta Braves. Like the Mariners, both of these teams are contenders because of pitching and defense more than hitting prowess. Also like the Mariners, they inhabit the fringy part of playoff contention. This isn’t a new thing for them either. Since the beginning of 2012, the team’s OPS ranks 28th in the league at .679. The two team’s lower are the Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres.

This is also a team that, in need of offense, traded for Kendrys Morales before the 2013 and offered him a qualifying offer worth about 14 million dollars. He turned it down because he didn’t want to play in Seattle. Morales then wilted in free agency before signing with the Twins for one year at 7.4 million dollars. After hitting .234/.259/.325 as a Twin, the Mariners traded for him. He has since been worth -0.2 WARP for the Mariners. The team needs offense, and in the recent past they’ve sought it out without getting much in return for their efforts.

Carlos Gonzalez would provide more value to the Mariners than other teams because of their need of offensive production. Similarly, the Rockies need pitchers with multiple years of team control, and James Paxton would fill that need. A little background just in case you’re unfamiliar with Paxton. He’s a 25 year old rookie starting pitcher that stands 6’4 and weighs 220 pounds. He’s under team control through 2019. Paxton’s primary pitch is a four-seam fastball that has averaged 95 miles per hour. In 14 career major league starts, he’s thrown his fastball 67 percent of the time. Paxton’s most frequently used secondary pitch is a knuckle-curve (similar to Brett Anderson‘s, which he throws about 17 percent of the time. He also throws a changeup and a cutter. Combined, he has thrown these pitches 15 percent of the time. Most significantly, Paxton is a groundball machine. In 83 big league innings, he’s induced 56.6% ground balls. He’s also struck out 19 percent of the batters he’s faced and walked 8 percent. Paxton is essentially a left-handed Jon Gray who throws a curveball rather than a slider. He’s perfect for the Rockies.

In this scenario, the Mariners would still have one of the best rotations in all of baseball. Assuming they exercise Hisashi Iwakuma’s 2015 option and re-sign Chris Young (a deal both should want), they would have a 2015 rotation of Felix Herhandez, Iwakuma, Young, Taijuan Walker, and Roenis Elias. It would also put the Mariners in a position to take advantage of Hernandez and Robinson Cano during their peak years. Though Gonzalez has value, the Mariners would still have to pay Gonzalez the significant amount of money he is still owed. I think they could and would do take on the contract. This past July, they were rumored to be in pursuit of Matt Kemp, who comes with a longer commitment (five years compared to three) and is owed much more money (107 million compared to 53).

The Rockies would have first five of Jorge De La Rosa, Jordan Lyles, Tyler Matzek, Eddie Butler, and James Paxton. Given the value that Paxton offers and the demand to take on the final three years of Gonzalez’s contract, I think a good final ending point would be for the Rockies to pay about 8 million dollars of CarGo’s salary. Thought of as payment for Paxton, it is well worth it. Assuming that the Rockies do the logical thing and let Michael Cuddyer walk in free agency, and assuming the team hasn’t forgotten that Kyle Parker exists (I’m not confident in either assumption), the Rockies can have a 2015 outfield core of Corey Dickerson, Charlie Blackmon, Drew Stubbs, and Kyle Parker. Ben Paulsen and Brandon Barnes offer positional depth, as well as Tim Wheeler if the Rockies choose to add him to the 40 person roster so as to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Trading Gonzalez for Paxton also frees up money for the Rockies to sign Russell Martin. Incidentally, Paxton and Martin are both Canadian. So my offseason plan for the Rockies is to recall the days of Larry Walker and corner the market on Canadian baseball players.

I outlined something of a dream that has been kicking around in my head for a couple of weeks now. It’s not the only workable trade the Rockies could do for Carlos Gonzalez. Instead, it should be read as the type of mutually beneficial trade the Rockies could execute if they decided to move Gonzalez. CarGo has an exceptional chance to produce the value of his contract over the next three years, and I think a better than even chance of outperforming it by a lot. I don’t think the Rockies must trade CarGo, but if they do, they shouldn’t settle for a poor return.