China’s plan for the Philippines Posted by The Society of Honor on March 4, 2019 · 78 Comments

As I look at what is happening in and around the Philippines, I don’t think it is a great mystery as to what China’s plan for the Philippines might be. I mean, figuring it out is easier than reading tea leaves.

The Main Goals

The first thing we have to recognize is that China operates for China’s interests, as is proper. Life’s not a charity. And we can figure that two top-line interests are in play, one strategic, the other pragmatic.

Rise to the nation’s proper place of global dominance equal or superior to the United States. Defend the nation. End the abuses that have transpired throughout history. Feed the nation. Keep the economy growing and stable. Keep Chinese citizens employed, reasonably happy, and reasonably safe.

Action Plan

Given the two main goals, what are the action steps China can deploy regarding the Philippines? It is pretty straightforward, I think:

Capture the seas. Control government. Dominate the land. Provide living space and jobs for Chinese. Use cheap Filipino labor to make money. Push eastward to mine the Philippine Rise and acquire mid-Pacific islands.

There might be ancillary goals like drug running to give the Philippine government more tools to work with in controlling matters. And there might be contingencies such as orchestrated collapse of the Philippine economy if the yellows get frisky (pull out the gambling workers and watch the real estate industry collapse and bring down the banks). But if things go to plan, that won’t be necessary.

If we tried to eyeball a “percentage completed” accounting of progress on plan achievement, we might pencil in something like this:

Capture seas: 75% Control government: 65% Dominate the land: 5% Provide living space: 5% Use the labor: 1% Push east: 1%

American Interests

American Secretary of State Pompeo visited the Philippines last week. It was a fairly typical State visit, both sides expressing their affection for the other, and Secretary Pompeo softly nudging the Philippines on human rights. The Secretary did give a harder, clearer reading about the American understanding of the Mutual Defense Treaty: it DOES include the contested seas, and the US would respond militarily if Philippine ships or islands were attacked militarily by China.

We can see this is pertinent to the first Chinese action step, “capture seas”. What is interesting is that China need not take any hard military action because 75% control is sufficient to move forward with other goals. The US can float her boats all over the place, the Chinese will put up the usual protests, and China will remain in control, gradually building up capabilities and working on the other action steps.

The US has no boats to float in Philippine governmental affairs. US work to fight terrorism with the Philippines is of mutual benefit so can continue as a separate, compartmentalized operation that does not affect China. China will continue to acquire land and ports and commercial projects and become dominant on the land.

The US is irrelevant, beyond the seas.

Philippine Interests

What are Philippine interests in this global partnership with China?

Well, there seem to be three groups with different takes on it:

One group consists of those who operate from inside the Chinese embrace. We can include the primary agents (Duterte, Go, Cayetano, Uy, Locsin) and those who are willing enablers (Angara, Poe, Pacquiao, Sotto, Pimentel, Villar, Arroyo and the whole lemming House of Representatives) who are helping China secure her goals. They gain personally by doing so and don’t care who is master.

The other consists of those who would argue that China’s interests penalize Filipinos and that ought not be allowed. The Philippines ought to manage her domestic affairs to prevent foreign dominance, as the Constitution says. And she ought to enforce her human rights obligations. In this group we find the ‘yellows’, in the main, and a few latent patriots like Senators Villanueva and Lacson. They object to some aspects of China’s soft invasion, like massive illegal immigration.

The needful masses who don’t know and don’t care about any of this.

Looking at China’s plan, we immediately focus on action step number 2 because that determines how the Chinese (and Filipino agents) manage goals 3 through 6.

The 65% completion figure means China is in control of Philippine government today . . . she has her preferred President well in hand and work is being done assertively on many fronts to “move in” to the Philippines: ports, construction, Chinese immigrants and workers, control of resorts and Marawi, land acquisition for agriculture, investments in telecom, casinos, reclamation in Manila Bay, control of Clark Green City, and possibly ship-building in Subic.

It’s impressive.

However, it is worth noting that 65% is closer to 50% . . . and loss of control by China . . . than it is to 100% and total, assured control.

So Filipinos DO have a say in matters, right now.

By 2022, they may have none.

What does it mean for us?

If China’s plan succeeds, it means the Philippines will become a lonelier place for those of us who are fond of Filipino autonomy. It will become busy with Chinese interests and people, none of whom are really enemies of Filipinos, even if they do take the best jobs. The Philippines will become closer to China than even Taiwan, with a compliant leadership doing the orchestrations of domestic affairs, for generous receipts.

There will still be schools and jobs, and jobs overseas, for even the Chinese need domestic help. Filipinos who are studious in science or law, and Mandarin, may still find their way forward in professional occupations, business, health care, security agencies, and government agencies.

The law and justice will be tools of an increasingly autocratic State, as they are becoming now. Moral principles assuring fairness and kind treatment will disappear. Advocating for human rights will be declared unpatriotic. Filipinos will mostly be laborers for Chinese strawbosses. Order-takers.

And Doctor Jose Rizal will shudder in his grave, understanding full well that moral indolence is the worst kind of indolence.