Elections, at their most basic level, are exchanges of trust: voters choose which politicians get their trust, and politicians trust voters to make an informed choice.

A sweeping new report, however, shows that Canada is heading into this election year with a not-insignificant trust problem, even at this most fundamental level.

It’s this: the country is increasingly divided between those who trust in the democratic system and those who don’t — and significantly for the media business, between the informed public and the rest of the population.

The gap is revealed in what’s called the “trust barometer” — an annual, international survey by the Edelman communications firm. It shows that Canada’s “trust inequality” is second only to Britain, where possibly the existential debates over Brexit have driven a wedge between the trusters and the distrusters.

Edelman’s survey divides respondents into two groups: the informed public and the mass population. To be classed as part of the informed citizenry, respondents must be between 25-64 years of age, college educated, in the top 25 per cent of income in their age group and report “significant” media consumption in public policy and business.

There’s good news for Canada here, including in my own journalism business. Media consumption is up significantly. In 2018, 54 per cent of respondents said they consumed news less than weekly; that’s down to 33 per cent in 2019. A full 42 per cent said in this year’s report that they were weekly news consumers; that was only 31 per cent in 2018. The report also identifies “amplifiers” — people who consume news content and share frequently. Last year, that was just 16 per cent of the respondents; this year, it’s 26 per cent.

Trust in traditional media is also holding at a healthy 71 per cent, I’m pleased to report here in this column coming to you in traditional media. Moreover, 71 per cent of Canadian respondents said they were concerned by “fake news.” Trust in social media is at only 31 per cent.

Now that we’ve got that good news (let’s hope it’s not fake news) out of the way, back to the disturbing trust gap.

While trust in institutions such as government, business, media and non-governmental organizations is hovering around 74 per cent among the informed public, it’s only 54 per cent among the mass population. That’s a 20 point gap — the highest ever recorded in Canada by Edelman in the 19 years it has been carrying out the survey.

In Britain, by the way, that gap stands at a whopping 24 points. In the U.S., the survey shows trust levels at 60 per cent among the informed public and 47 per cent among the mass population — a 13 point gap.

It’s a global problem, Edelman reports, emerging in most of the 27 countries and among the roughly 33,000 respondents surveyed late last year. Canadian respondents totalled 1,500 and the margin of error ranges between 2.9 and 6.9 percentage points, depending on the various divisions within the international study.

“The more dramatic story this year is that the world is now divided by trust,” Edelman reports on the overall, global picture. “There is a 16-point gap between the more trusting informed public and the far more skeptical mass population, marking a return to record highs of trust inequality, and the re-emergence of a true “mass-class” divide.”

How will this play out in the looming federal election? In the first place, it presents an opening for a two-tier election campaign: one fought on the usual three Ps of policy, platforms and performance by leaders; the other fought in the distrustful, non-informed trenches where fake news and mischief can run rampant.

In a close election, the distrustful and uninformed could be pivotal to party fortunes; the temptation to play to them will be bigger than ever, and the potential certainly seems to exist for not only “mass-class” but mass-clash.

This newest trust barometer is not uplifting reading — it also shows that there’s widespread feeling among the mass population and the informed public that the system is failing them: only 24 per cent of the informed public and 16 per cent of the mass population think the system is working for them. There are fears of job security and rising levels of pessimism about where people believe their livelihood will be in five years’ time.

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All of these are potentially toxic ingredients in any future election campaign, for any party. Rising levels of fear and ignorance and distrust — what could possibly go wrong?

Political polarization is one thing, but trust polarization may be a whole new factor in Canadian politics in this coming election. All parties should probably brace themselves.