Senate Will Republicans go nuclear? GOP anger on immigration could lead to a block on nominees.

As Mitch McConnell mulls what to do with top nominees to the Defense and Justice departments, Senate Republicans have a decision to make: Go nuclear or not.

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel’s departure on Monday and the recent announcement of Loretta Lynch as President Barack Obama’s attorney general nominee adds new urgency to Republicans’ choice of whether to revert the Senate’s voting threshold back to 60 votes, or keep it at the simple majority set by Democrats’ unilateral “nuclear option.”


Their decision could decide not only how easily these two big openings are filled but also signal just how many confirmation fights lie ahead for the new Republican Senate and a president in his last two years in office.

( Also on POLITICO: McConnell preps for 2016)

Republicans have not yet reached a consensus, with intense member-to-member discussions needed after the Thanksgiving holiday to settle a matter of great importance given the GOP’s sustained outrage following the Democratic gutting of the filibuster on nominations.

“That remains a subject of discussion. There’s some division, but no resolution yet,” said Senate GOP Whip John Cornyn of Texas last week. “It is something that bears serious discussion.”

The GOP has some breathing room with more than a month before they take the majority — but already consequential Cabinet-level nominations are piling up as an early test for how Republicans will wield their majority.

Attorney General Eric Holder has one foot out the door already, with Lynch’s nomination already kicked into early next year. She’s farther along than Hagel’s nonexistent successor, who already has senators in both parties arguing Monday for swift approval of the next secretary. There’s no hard deadline, given that Hagel and Holder will stay on until their successor is in place — but already the drama is building as Republicans get to decide the fate of nominees for the first time in a year since they were stripped by Democrats of any influence on the process.

( Also on POLITICO: Hagel's resignation underscores rifts)

Senate Republicans say the rules decision is mostly symbolic because control of the committees allows them to bottle up anyone they oppose before a floor vote. That might be a way to bury a controversial judicial nominee or ambassador next year, but it won’t work for high-profile Cabinet nominees like the next defense secretary or Lynch: If there is any delay, Democrats will broadcast it to the world.

“It’s one thing to hold up a judicial nominee, but it’s another thing to leave the Department of Defense without a leader,” said Loren Thompson, a defense industry consultant.

Though the filibuster threshold for nominees with any opposition had long been set at 60 votes, few major nominees were stopped in their tracks last year until Democrats forced votes on three judicial nominees to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. All three were blocked by Republicans, paving the way for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to change the rules to a simple majority one year ago.

In some ways, the Pentagon is less divisive than other departments, as both parties have continued to pass defense policy bills while nearly every other semblance of “regular order” in the Senate has fallen apart. Lynch’s nomination has already picked up some baggage from Obama’s executive action on immigration, for example, a policy issue that likely won’t disrupt the Defense confirmation process. But that doesn’t mean things are going to be easy.

“I told [Hagel] this morning … you may be there a while,” said retiring House Armed Services Chairman Buck McKeon (R-Calif.) on Monday. “I don’t see, with [Obama] waving the red flag at the Congress, how he’s going to do too well on any nominees.”

( Also on POLITICO: Lamest lame duck)

Incoming Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain (R-Ariz.) said on Monday he expected one of the first orders of 2015 business to be a new defense secretary — but also indicated Republicans will use the nomination as a platform for their myriad critiques of Obama’s foreign policy.

“We will be very carefully scrutinizing the nominee for the next secretary of defense. And one thing we’ll be demanding is a strategy to combat ISIS,” McCain told Arizona radio station KFYI.

Even those with a short memory will recall the last ugly fight over a defense secretary: Hagel’s confirmation in 2013. Republicans voted to block Hagel’s nomination initially, an embarrassing moment for the former Republican senator from Nebraska. The GOP eventually relented and let him through — but not before both the administration and Republicans feuded for weeks.

Though it still would have been rhetorically ugly, Hagel wouldn’t have been blocked under the current simple majority threshold — which could indicate one option for Republicans as they take their majority. Needing only 51 votes to break a filibuster would allow most of the Senate GOP conference to oppose the next defense secretary nominee and still approve his nomination, avoiding sending a signal that politics have seeped national security policy as the United States steps up its involvement overseas to take on the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant.

“With the United States facing threats to our national security around the world, it is my hope that Senate Republicans will work with Democrats to give swift and fair consideration to President Obama’s next nominee to this critical post,” said Reid, who will pass the baton to McConnell in January.

The Obama administration has big decisions to make as well: Will they nominate someone like Hagel that caused an instant Senate standoff? Or someone that doesn’t ruffle too many feathers?

One recent confirmation is instructive: Sylvia Mathews Burwell. The current secretary of the Health and Human Services Department was confirmed unanimously as the director of the Office of Management and Budget before being appointed to the politically charged post of implementing Obamacare. Though the GOP warned of a brewing fight over her, Republicans couldn’t block Burwell because of their minority status. Ultimately, she was easily confirmed by a large majority as Republicans praised her management skills in one breath and lambasted Obamacare in another.

This time, regardless of the voting threshold, McConnell will ultimately decide the fate of Obama’s Pentagon pick — so the White House could choose someone familiar to Senate Republicans like Burwell rather than an unknown or controversial figure likely to provoke the ire of a Republican Senate that Obama has pledged to work with.

Already several known names have cropped up: Former Deputy Secretary of Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, current Deputy Secretary Robert Work and former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Michele Flournoy. All three have been easily confirmed by the Senate, with Carter approved unanimously, and Work and Flournoy breezing through voice votes.

As Hagel’s confirmation foundered in 2013, conservative Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) had a couple replacement suggestions: Carter and Flournoy. Those options are still popular among Republicans nearly two years later: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) suggested both as “solid choices for this important position.”

“I really don’t think confirmation is going to be a problem unless they come up with a squirrelly nominee. Both Flournoy and Carter have credibility,” said Steve Bucci, an analyst at for the conservative Heritage Foundation.

Jen Judson contributed to this report.