Russia, Georgia, and McCain’s reckless belligerence

With the conflict between Russia and Georgia moving “toward full-scale war,” even those of us who follow the news closely might pause and think, “Now, what’s that conflict about again?” The NYT’s James Traub wrote a very helpful piece today offering plenty of background and history to explain the context for the violence, and why the parties have been moving towards this war in the North Caucasus for quite some time.

But given the U.S. presidential race, and the fact that this is a political site, I’d also note the significance of Barack Obama’s and John McCain’s reactions to the conflict, which actually tell us quite a bit about their respective approaches to foreign policy. Ben Smith published a solid report on this last night.

While Obama offered a response largely in line with statements issued by democratically elected world leaders, including President Bush, first calling on both sides to negotiate, John McCain took a remarkably — and uniquely — more aggressive stance, siding clearly with Georgia’s pro-Western leaders and placing the blame for the conflict entirely on Russia. The abrupt crisis in an obscure hotspot had the features of the real foreign policy situations presidents face — not the clean hypotheticals of candidates’ white papers and debating points…. Both American candidates back Georgia’s sovereignty and its turn toward the West. But their first statements on the crisis revealed differences of substance and style.

Obama, calling for restraint and condemning the “outbreak of violence,” also criticized Russia for having “invaded Georgia’s sovereign” and having “encroached on Georgia’s sovereignty.” Obama’s line was largely consistent with that of the Bush White House, the European Union, NATO, and a series of European powers.

John McCain took a different line, which, as Smith noted, “put him more closely in line with the moral clarity and American exceptionalism projected by President Bush’s first term.”



A McCain adviser suggested that Obama’s statement constituted appeasement…. McCain’s statement was longer, more detailed and more confrontational. “[T]he news reports indicate that Russian military forces crossed an internationally recognized border into the sovereign territory of Georgia. Russia should immediately and unconditionally cease its military operations and withdraw all forces from sovereign Georgian territory. “The government of Georgia has called for a ceasefire and for a resumption of direct talks on South Ossetia with international mediators. The U.S. should immediately work with the EU and the OSCE to put diplomatic pressure on Russia to reverse this perilous course that it has chosen.” John McCain’s top foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, defended McCain’s direct criticism of Russia in the early hours of the crisis. “Sen. McCain is clearly willing to note who he thinks is the aggressor here,” he said, dismissing the notion that Georgia’s move into its renegade province had precipitated the crisis. “I don’t think you can excuse, defend, explain or make allowance for Russian behavior because of what is going on in Georgia.”

That Scheunemann just so happens to have been a well-paid lobbyist for the Georgian government might, just might, raise questions about a potential conflict here.

Mark Brzezinski, a former Clinton White House official and an informal adviser to Obama, added, “McCain took an inflexible approach to addressing this issue by focusing heavily on one side, without a pragmatic assessment of the situation. It’s both sides’ fault — both have been somewhat provocative with each other.”

Wait, would-be presidents should appreciate nuance when dealing with an international crisis? Credible candidates should be able to recognize gray areas in complex parts of Eastern Europe? Thoughtful would-be leaders need not to rush to view the world as a series of good guys and bad guys?

Ya don’t say.

Let’s be clear: if McCain the Candidate is a reliable indicator of what we can expect from McCain the President, the presumptive Republican nominee would apparently be anxious to exacerbate the burgeoning war, and antagonize Russia.

There’s a lot going on right now, but this is a very important development in the presidential campaign. Ben Smith characterized this as a “true ‘3 a.m. moment'” for the presidential candidates. And at this point, McCain is once again looking pretty scary.