We’d like to start off by offering our apologies for not posting a Gameweek 25 article, which wasn’t possible due to personal circumstances for the writer.

As a result, we’ll review our recommendations from Gameweek 24 before looking ahead to the current round of fixtures. With our squad decimated by injuries and rotation (Per Mertesacker, Pablo Zabaleta, Sam Byram and Kevin Mirallas all totalled 0 minutes), we could only field 10 players, as a result of just 2 of our 5 defenders seeing pitch time. And with our captain, Romelu Lukaku, also subbed off at half time following an injury for a measly 2 point return, it is pleasantly surprising that our recommended XV managed to bring home an above average (60) haul of 61 points for the gameweek. We have Messrs Vardy (13), Borthwick-Jackson (11) and Alli (10) to thank.

Moving onto Gameweek 26, we’ll analyse the bookmakers offerings in an attempt to continue our recent good form..

Defensive odds

Team Clean Sheet Odds Implied chance Everton 2.15 47% Man Utd 2.25 44% Chelsea 2.25 44% Liverpool 2.3 43% Bournemouth 2.5 40% Arsenal 2.6 38% Crystal Palace 2.6 38% Southampton 38% Norwich 3.1 32% Man City 31% Swansea 31% Watford 29% West Ham 3.75 27% Stoke 3.8 26% Aston Villa 4.2 24% Sunderland 4.5 22% Tottenham 5 20% Leicester 5.5 18% West Brom 5.8 17% Newcastle 8 13%

The bookies care not that Everton have the worst home defence in the Premier League (22 goals conceded in 13 games) as they place the Toffees top of the defensive rankings this weekend with a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Roberto Martinez’s men, who did manage to shutout Newcastle in their last home game, face the 2nd-lowest away scorers in the division, West Brom (8 goals in 12). The Baggies have failed to net in 3 of their last 4 road trips and come into the fixture having played 120 minutes in their midweek FA Cup replay against Peterborough, so fatigue and injuries could hamper their efforts. Joel Robles, a cheap option between the sticks given the injury to Tim Howard, and marauding right-back Seamus Coleman make our squad.

Manchester United and Chelsea (both 44%) tie for 2nd place this time round. The Red Devils travel to Sunderland in Saturday’s early kickoff, whilst Guus Hiddink’s men entertain fellow North East strugglers Newcastle. The Black Cats have the joint 2nd-worst home attack in the league, having netted just 13 times in 12 games on familiar soil, so Cameron Borthwick-Jackson, following his assist and 2 bonus points against Stoke, finds himself making our squad once again. Hiddink’s Blues will be looking to improve at home following 4 draws on the bounce, none of which have included clean sheets, and have the perfect chance to do so against the Magpies, who possess the worst travelling attack in the division, netting just 0.5 goals per game, and have blanked in 3 of their last 4 away from home. To appease selection rules and budget constraints, Thibaut Courtois and Cesar Azpilicueta join our ranks for Gameweek 26.

Completing the top 5 this weekend are Liverpool (43%) and Bournemouth (40%). Despite not keeping a clean sheet in their last 5 outings, the Reds travel to Villa Park where the league’s worst home attack (10 in 12 games) await. Eddie Howe’s Cherries, meanwhile, welcome Stoke to the South Coast, with the Potters in poor form having suffered a trio of 3-0 defeats recently. Therefore, Mamadou Sakho and Simon Francis should be confident of defensive returns. The pair only make the bench in our squad, but we saw last week just how important backup players can prove to be.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet rankings tells us that defensive assets from Leicester (18% – away to Arsenal), West Brom (17% – away to Everton) and Newcastle (13% – away to Chelsea) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Goalscorer Odds Implied chance Diego Costa 1.95 51% Romelu Lukaku 2.1 48% Sergio Aguero 2.1 48% Olivier Giroud 2.4 42% Wayne Rooney 2.55 39% Daniel Sturridge 2.6 38% Roberto Firmino 2.67 37% Harry Kane 2.75 36% Alexis Sanchez 2.8 36% Charlie Austin 2.9 34% Anthony Martial 2.9 34% Jamie Vardy 3 33% Benik Afobe 3 33% Oscar 3.1 32% Dieumerci Mbokani 31% Enner Valencia 5 31% Odion Ighalo 5 31% Ross Barkley 3.3 30% Emmanuel Adebayor 29% Josh King 29% Steven Naismith 3.6 28% Troy Deeney 3.8 26% Raheem Sterling 3.9 26% Dimitri Payet 4 25% Salomon Rondon 4 25% Dele Alli 4 25% Jermain Defoe 4 25% Alberto Paloschi 4 25% Sadio Mane 4 25% Mesut Ozil 4.1 24% Bojan 4.1 24% Rudy Gestede 4.33 23% Saido Berahino 4.5 22% Riyad Mahrez 4.5 22% Yohan Cabaye 4.5 22% Gylfi Sigurdsson 4.5 22% Marko Arnautovic 4.5 22% Aleksandar Mitrovic 4.75 21% Wahbi Khazri 5.5 18% Georginio Wijnaldum 6 17%

Diego Costa, having scored 7 goals in his last 9 appearances across all competitions, tops the bookies’ attacking rankings for this gameweek with a 51% chance of continuing his hot streak. Looking rejuvenated under Guus Hiddink’s leadership, the Brazil-born Spanish forward, who netted against the Toon in this fixture last season, will certainly fancy his chances against a porous Newcastle defence that has been conceding over 2 goals per game (26 in 12) on the road this campaign. As a result of the odds that have been priced up by the bookmakers, the controversial forward is handed the captain’s armband for our squad this weekend.

Completing our striking lineup are 2 other big names in the shape of Romelu Lukaku and Sergio Aguero (both 48%). After getting back to on the scoresheet against Stoke following 5 games without a goal, Lukaku, who has notched 16 league goals this season, will look to profit against a tired West Brom outfit (120 minutes midweek). The big Belgian also scored twice against the Baggies in the reverse fixture earlier this term. In sharp contrast to Lukaku’s recent slump in form, Sergio Aguero has been on fire. The diminutive Argentine has banged 7 goals in his last 6 Premier League outings, including the last 4 in a row. Sunday’s late kick off sees City welcome Tottenham to The Etihad, and, despite Mauricio Pochettino’s men having the best defence (both overall and away from home) in the league this term, Aguero will be looking forward to the clash having scored an incredible 4 in this fixture last year.

The 1st midfielder to make our squad for Gameweek 26 is Roberto Firmino (37%). The Brazilian has reaped the rewards of playing up front for Liverpool lately, averaging 9.6 points per game over his last 5 (5 goals, 2 assists). He faces a rock-bottom Aston Villa side on Sunday and, although it should be noted that Remi Garde’s men have tightened up at the back lately, conceding just 3 in 5, the Reds’ frontman will be fresh having not featured in Liverpool’s FA Cup replay against West Ham on Tuesday evening.

Joining Firmino in our midfield this weekend are Alexis Sanchez (36%), Joshua King (29%) and Dele Alli (25%), whilst Riyad Mahrez (22%) makes the bench. Arsenal will be hoping that Chilean hot-shot Sanchez can replicate the hat trick he scored earlier in the season against opponents Leicester, with the clash between the title contenders also set to feature Algerian sensation Mahrez, this year’s top fantasy scorer to date (183 points). King will be hoping for a recall to the Bournemouth starting XI as he looks to add to his 2 goals and 1 assist this term, with visitors Stoke struggling in the absence of Ryan Shawcross, conceding 3 in each of their last 3 league games. Young player of the year contender Alli has scored in 5 of his last 6 away games and heads up to Manchester on Sunday, with City, who were thoroughly outclassed in a 3-1 home defeat to Leicester last time out, lying in wait.

Other viable options in the middle of the park according to the bookies include Oscar (32%), Ross Barkley (30%), Raheem Sterling (26%) and Dimitri Payet (25%), but they all miss out on places in our squad due to budget restrictions.

This week’s team based on bookmaker’s predictions:

Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter.

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