Number of those overstaying their visa is lower than previous estimates

The British government’s determination to maintain a tough line on international students suffered a blow as new data published by the official statistics body suggested that the number of students illegally overstaying their visa is far lower than previous figures had suggested.

The figures came as Britain’s Home Office has commissioned a study into the economic impact of international students to the country, a move that could lead to a shift in policy.

In the report published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), exit checks were used for the first time to help assess the extent to which students were leaving the U.K. before or after their student visa had expired, against International Passenger Survey data, on which they had previously relied.

“A very large majority of students were identified as having departed before their visa or extension of leave expired or as staying legally by applying for and being granted further leave to remain in the U.K.,” said the report. Analysis found that Indians were among the students more likely to depart the country before their student visas expired, with a small fraction leaving after their visa had expired.

“The number of students overstaying their visas is a tiny fraction of previous [incorrect claims],” said Alistair Jarvis, Chief Executive of Universities U.K.

Key export

“We understand how important students from around the world are to our higher education sector, which is a key export for our country, and that’s why we want to have a robust and independent evidence base of their value and the impact they have,” said Home Secretary Amber Rudd, who on Thursday commissioned the year-long study to be carried out by the government’s independent advisers, the Migration Advisory Committee.

“Frankly, that’s the wrong response,” warned the Liberal Democrats, calling on the government to drop international students from official immigration figures.

ONS figures showed that net migration fell to its lowest level — by 81,000 to 2,46,000 — between April 2015 and March 2017, driven by a fall in the number of EU citizens. Data presented a mixed picture for foreign students. While long-term migration to study by non-EU students fell by 20,000 to 93,000, visas issued to non-EU students in the same period rose by 5%. However, Indian students numbers have fallen dramatically in recent years from 40,500 in 2010 to 9,600 in 2016 (based on Home Office data).