The Nuclear Crisis Group aims to offer advice in real time to Trump’s team and leaders of other governments to take steps to avoid escalation and make a nuclear exchange less likely. | AP Photo Ex-nuke commanders launch ‘crisis’ group to educate Trump

A global coalition of former military leaders and diplomats who had responsibility over nuclear weapons is launching a "shadow security council" to offer advice to world leaders on how to reduce what they consider to be the growing danger of a nuclear conflict fueled by the rhetoric of President Donald Trump and destabilizing moves by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Nuclear Crisis Group, which will be announced in Vienna on Friday, boasts nearly two-dozen members of the nuclear priesthood of at least eight major nations — including a former commander of the U.S. atomic arsenal; the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Pakistan; a retired admiral who was in charge of India's nukes; the ex-heads of the Chinese military's strategic studies and science institutes; and Russia's former foreign minister and chief atomic weapons designer. Others joining the initiative include Thomas Pickering, the United Nations ambassador under George H.W. Bush who also served as ambassador to Russia, India and Israel.


Their aims include offering public and private advice in real time to Trump’s team and leaders of other governments in the hope their collective credentials will make officials listen — and take concrete steps to avoid escalation and make a nuclear exchange, whether accidental or on purpose, less likely.

"Not only is the U.S.-Russia relationship on much more shaky ground but the whole political environment has deteriorated," said Richard Burt, the chief negotiator for President George H.W. Bush in the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Moscow and one of the leaders of the group.

He cited recent tensions with North Korea, an unchecked nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan, and China's steady nuclear buildup — all at a time when a vacuum of expertise and understanding on the nuclear threat exists, both within the U.S. and foreign governments and among the public.

"The issue of nuclear weapons has strangely kind of receded from people's consciousness," Burt said in an interview. "We must remind people in these different crisis situations that there is a nuclear danger and it needs to be addressed. We can play a useful role in reminding both governments and publics of the dangers as well as the possible solutions."

Several participants likened the effort to the "Track II" diplomacy often relied on during the iciest periods of the Cold War.

Unlike negotiations that take place through official government channels, Track II relies on unofficial actors — often with high-level government backgrounds who still maintain influence — who can operate with less constraints to try to resolve conflicts behind the scenes.

The new effort is an outgrowth of Global Zero, a nonpartisan campaign including 300 world leaders that was founded in 2007 to seek ways to rid the world of nuclear arms.

The movement had a key supporter in President Barack Obama, who in 2009 called for a world free of nuclear weapons. But the momentum, which peaked with the 2011 New Start Treaty with Russia, has fizzled — and many say even reversed — as relations between Washington and Moscow, the two largest nuclear weapons powers, have reached a post-Cold War low.

Derek Johnson, Global Zero's executive director, said that as a result the movement has been forced to refocus some of its focus on reducing nuclear stockpiles toward determining "what we can do to stop one of these things from going off."

Several architects of the effort cited recent statements by Trump as one reason they felt the urgency to inject "actual facts" into the debate.

In a stark departure from past presidents in both parties, Trump has called for building up the U.S. nuclear arsenal. He has claimed, to the dismay of generations of arms control expert, that the United States got a bad deal in the most recent nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia. And he recently said there could be a war with nuclear-armed North Korea.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, has overseen a major nuclear buildup and permitted the Russian military to violate the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty by deploying a new nuclear-armed cruise missile.

"There is a lot of rhetoric right now that is heightened," said retired Marine Corps Gen. James Cartwright, a former vice Joint Chiefs chairman during the Obama and George W. Bush administrations and who also ran the U.S. Strategic Command, which controls the nation’s nuclear missiles, bombers, and submarines. "The question is can you do something about it and keep it under control?"

"Trump has introduced a level of volatility at a uniquely dangerous moment," Johnson said in an interview.

Citing North Korea, Russia and other hot spots, he added: "Things are heating up but I think it is pretty clear he is not equipped to handle those flash points."

Michael Short, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council, declined to address questions about the criticism or Trump's plans to reduce nuclear dangers.

Johnson and others also see a lack of rigor on the nuclear weapons threat at all levels.

"There's a real diplomatic and analytical vacuum that has to be filled," he said, citing proposed Trump administration cuts to the Department of State. "The State Department is a ghost town. It is hard to imagine a worse time to gut State."

He said the new group will be meeting regularly and as crises are unfolding request meetings with key decision makers and publish options for reducing the chances of nuclear confrontation.

Cartwright previewed a few proposals the group is already considering. They include finding ways to expand the decision time that leaders have to respond to a perceived nuclear escalation in order to avoid miscalculation; improving communication between nuclear powers; and seeking ways to defend against cyberattacks on nuclear command and control systems that could spin out of control.

"All of those things that could lead you into an escalation you don't intend," said Cartwright.

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Other recommendations could involve the redeployment of nuclear weapons so they are less likely to be used in a crisis and applying to North Korea the approach of the recent international pact to halt Iran's nuclear weapons program, according to Burt.

Cartwright, who was pardoned by Obama after pleading guilty to lying to the FBI about press leaks of a U.S.-Israel cyberattack on Iran's nuclear program, said he hopes the group's collective voice of experience in these matters will offset any questions about his credibility.

"We need savvy, independent, experienced experts to shine a spotlight on these dangers, speak truth to power, and make sure these flash points aren't catastrophically mishandled," Johnson said. "It's our goal to help to chart a course safely through to the other side. Part of that too is exposing these risks — focusing the press and the public on these dangers so governments can't ignore them or blunder into disaster — and ratcheting up pressure for diplomatic solutions.

Warned Burt: "We are much closer into coming into conflict."