In 2015, a year before the US electoral system was primed to send the White House its first new occupant in eight years, Donald Trump engineered an astonishing takeover of the Republican Party. It’s 2019 now, and once again America finds itself a year away from a massive presidential election — except this time, there is zero chance the party out of office trusts an outsider with the reins.

To understand why that is, we need to rehash how Trump was able to hijack an entire party and bend it to his will.

When prompted, the president’s critics are capable of rattling off a litany of conventions they believe Trump gleefully smashed on his way into the Oval Office. But there is one bit of conventional political wisdom whose demolition has largely stayed under the radar, most likely due to its origins in the academy and not in mainstream discourse: the idea that political parties are the factors most determinative in securing who the nominees will be for president. A 2008 book captured this notion in its title: The Party Decides. Trump falsified it in one fell swoop.

Recall that Jeb Bush, the former two-term governor of Florida whose father (41) and older brother (43) made it to the White House, came out of the gate roaring in 2015. The institutional support — endorsements, donor money, high-profile surrogates, party leadership support — was all his. And yet, Trump ripped through it all like a hurricane descending on a house of cards.

This happened because the party and the voters were worlds apart — the party just didn’t realize it. For the last decade and a half of Republican politics, the voters sent message after message warning the party that an anti-establishment moment was coming.

George W Bush’s brand of “compassionate conservatism” was euphemistic for “spend like a liberal.” Yet the lesson wasn’t learned in 2008. While John McCain, the Republican nominee for president that year, chose the proto-Trumpian Sarah Palin as his running mate, there was nothing he could do to beat back his image as irredeemably moderate.

Marianne Williamson warns of Donald Trump's 'dark psychic force' in presidential debate

Then, in 2010, after a Tea Party wave crashed right into Obama’s legislative designs, the Republicans followed that up with…Mitt Romney? Because nothing stokes populist allegiance quite like running a lucrative private equity firm and then serving as governor of that great conservative bastion, Massachusetts. Once Obama’s eight years were up, voters decided they would not allow the establishment to get its way yet again. Jeb Bush begged for claps and he did not get them. Trump clapped back, and he got everything.

This is the context that explains how a barely literate reality TV star with no political experience engineered a takeover of a major political party. The groundwork was laid by years and years of — to the conservative imagination — failed presidencies, elections, and agendas. The GOP’s base quite simply refused to support another company man. The rest is history.

That’s manifestly not the situation Democrats finds themselves in. Though the winds have changed on Obama-era policies, Democrats remain largely proud of his eight years in office. There are pockets of the left wing of the party who are just as stridently anti-establishment as some of Trump’s voters were, but what anti-establishment looks like to them is quite different than it does on the right. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was construed as the establishment candidate — the one the institutional organs of the party were backing against the charmingly aloof Bernie Sanders, whose insurgent candidacy struck some outsider-y notes but who was ultimately as much of an insider as Clinton. After all, you don’t get to spend decades in Congress and call yourself anti-establishment.

This gets to the other reason a true outsider cannot win a Democratic primary. In addition to recent history being far more sanguine to their political prospects, in sharp contradistinction to the political alienation conservatives felt for so long toward their own party, Democratic voters value political competence and experience. They see it as a political virtue rather than as a drawback. Republican voters cried out, “No more of those types of guys.” Democratic voters can’t help but say, “Let’s go with someone different — without compromising our belief in the power of political experience and high educational competence.”

Take Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang, two outsiders vying for the Democratic nomination. As much buzz as they’ve recently received — Williamson for her debate performances and Yang for his Silicon Valley glow — there’s simply no path to victory for them in the Democratic primaries.

The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Show all 25 1 /25 The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Bernie Sanders The Vermont senator has launched a second bid for president after losing out to Hilary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic primaries. He is running on a similar platform of democratic socialist reform Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Joe Biden The former vice president recently faced scrutiny for inappropriate touching of women, but was thought to deal with the criticism well and has since maintained a front runner status in national polling EPA The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Elizabeth Warren The Massachusetts senator is a progressive Democrat, and a major supporter of regulating Wall Street Reuters The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Amy Klobuchar Klobuchar is a Minnesota senator who earned praise for her contribution to the Brett Kavanaugh hearings Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Michael Bloomberg Michael Bloomberg, a late addition to the 2020 race, announced his candidacy after months of speculation in November. He has launched a massive ad-buying campaign and issued an apology for the controversial "stop and frisk" programme that adversely impacted minority communities in New York City when he was mayor Getty Images The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 Tulsi Gabbard The Hawaii congresswoman announced her candidacy in January, but has faced tough questions on her past comments on LGBT+ rights and her stance on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Pete Buttigieg The centrist Indiana mayor and war veteran would be the first openly LGBT+ president in American history Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Deval Patrick The former Massachusetts governor launched a late 2020 candidacy and received very little reception. With just a few short months until the first voters flock to the polls, the former governor is running as a centrist and believes he can unite the party's various voting blocs AFP/Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Beto O'Rourke The former Texas congressman formally launched his bid for the presidency in March. He ran on a progressive platform, stating that the US is driven by "gross differences in opportunity and outcome" AP The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Kamala Harris The former California attorney general was introduced to the national stage during Jeff Sessions’ testimony. She has endorsed Medicare-for-all and proposed a major tax-credit for the middle class AFP/Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Bill De Blasio The New York mayor announced his bid on 16 May 2019. He emerged in 2013 as a leading voice in the left wing of his party but struggled to build a national profile and has suffered a number of political setbacks in his time as mayor AFP/Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Steve Bullock The Montana governor announced his bid on 14 May. He stated "We need to defeat Donald Trump in 2020 and defeat the corrupt system that lets campaign money drown out the people's voice, so we can finally make good on the promise of a fair shot for everyone." He also highlighted the fact that he won the governor's seat in a red [Republican] state Reuters The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Cory Booker The New Jersey Senator has focused on restoring kindness and civility in American politics throughout his campaign, though he has failed to secure the same level of support and fundraising as several other senators running for the White House in 2020 Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Wayne Messam Mayor of the city of Miramar in the Miami metropolitan area, Wayne Messam said he intended to run on a progressive platform against the "broken" federal government. He favours gun regulations and was a signatory to a letter from some 400 mayors condemning President Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord Vice News The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Kirsten Gillibrand The New York Senator formally announced her presidential bid in January, saying that “healthcare should be a right, not a privilege” Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: John Delaney The Maryland congressman was the first to launch his bid for presidency, making the announcement in 2017 AP The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Andrew Yang The entrepreneur announced his presidential candidacy by pledging that he would introduce a universal basic income of $1,000 a month to every American over the age of 18 Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Julian Castro The former San Antonio mayor announced his candidacy in January and said that his running has a “special meaning” for the Latino community in the US Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Marianne Williamson The author and spiritual adviser has announced her intention to run for president. She had previously run for congress as an independent in 2014 but was unsuccessful Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Eric Swalwell One of the younger candidates, Swalwell has served on multiple committees in the House of Representatives. He intended to make gun control central to his campaign but dropped out after his team said it was clear there was no path to victory Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Seth Moulton A Massachusetts congressman, Moulton is a former US soldier who is best known for trying to stop Nancy Pelosi from becoming speaker of the house. He dropped out of the race after not polling well in key states Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Jay Inslee Inslee has been governor of Washington since 2013. His bid was centred around climate change AFP/Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: John Hickenlooper The former governor of Colorado aimed to sell himself as an effective leader who was open to compromise, but failed to make a splash on the national stage Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Tim Ryan Ohio representative Tim Ryan ran on a campaign that hinged on his working class roots, though his messaging did not appear to resonate with voters Getty The Democrat challengers to Trump in 2020 DROPPED OUT: Tom Steyer Democratic presidential hopeful billionaire and philanthropist Tom Steyer is a longtime Democratic donor AFP/Getty

Trump seized the moment pretty quickly and never looked back. Williamson and Yang can’t break through the way Trump did, the way Ben Carson did – hell, the way even Herman Cain did for a brief spell in 2012 – because Democrats like the way their party’s progressing and because they like their candidates to go through the political channels capable of equipping them with the know-how they need to do a good job in high elected office.