The summer months will likely be dry for most New Zealanders, with the hottest temperatures expected in the top of North Island.

Niwa today released its seasonal climate outlook, saying lower than normal pressures are expected southeast of the Chatham Islands, with weak south-westerly winds over New Zealand.

Climate Scientist Georgina Griffiths said rainfall is likely to be near normal or below normal in all North Island regions and in Nelson and Marlborough.

Gisborne and the Hawke's Bay was the place the watch as it would be drier than normal, she said.

Rainfall in those areas is likely to be near or below average, while soil moisture levels and river flows are expected to be below normal.

New Zealanders from Auckland to Gisborne will enjoy the warmer climate, with temperatures expected to be average or above average in the north and east of the North Island.

Griffiths said there was a half chance that a weak El Nino could also develop in the next three months in New Zealand.

The ocean was warm around the equator at the El Nino threshold, but the atmosphere hasn't responded yet, she said.