Chow continues to falter

TORONTO August 6th, 2014 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1268 Toronto voters, more will now vote for John Tory than will vote for either Olivia Chow or Rob Ford, and Chow has seen her vote share decline yet again. In addition, John Tory's favourables are significantly higher than any other candidate's.

In the crucial five way race between all the major contenders, Tory attracts the votes of more than a third (35%) to less than 3-in-10 for Rob Ford (27%) and a quarter for Olivia Chow (25%). This is in comparison to 2 weeks ago, when the three leading contenders were basically tied (July 21, Tory - 28%, Ford - 27%, Chow - 29%). It is clear that, while Rob Ford's vote has remained stable, Chow's has drifted markedly to Tory. In this match-up, neither David Soknacki (5%) nor Karen Stintz contend (4%).





In a four way race in which Karen Stintz doesn't run, Tory gets more than a third again (34%), to 3-in-10 for Ford (29%) and one quarter for Olivia Chow (26%). David Soknacki still doesn't contend (7%).

In a hypothetical three way match-up between just the leaders, Tory improves to almost 4-in-10 votes (38%) to 3-in-10 for Rob Ford (30%) and just less than this for Chow (28%). In other words, Chow has all the support now she will get, whereas John Tory stands to benefit if other candidates drop out.





Highest approval for Tory



Almost all voters know John Tory (93%), and, of these, two thirds approve of him (67%). Virtually everyone knows Olivia Chow (97%) and just more than half approve of her (52%). There is very high awareness now for Karen Stintz (86%), but not especially high approval (41%). The lowest awareness is for David Soknacki (70%), but close to one half approve (46%). Rob Ford's approval is the lowest of the five major candidates at one third (35%).





Die hard Ford Nation hangs in

Just less than 3-in-10 will vote for Rob Ford with no other candidates named (the "Ford Nation" question - 28%), and this is exactly the same proportion as two weeks ago (28%).





6-in-10 still want resignation

Six-in-ten voters want Rob Ford to resign (58%) and this hasn't changed in two weeks (July 21 - 59%).





Most will vote their political bent, half will vote transit

When asked their agreement with a series of statements about the mayoral race, most voters agree they would vote for the candidate who shares their political philosophy (77%), while just more than half say they will vote for the candidate with the best transit plan (60%). Just more than a third agree they will vote for any candidate who can beat Rob Ford (37%), one fifth say they will vote Rob Ford no matter what (21%) and very few claim they will not vote (8%) or are unsure if they will (8%).





Three quarters think campaign is too long

Close to three quarters of voters say the mayoral campaign is too lengthy (73%), while one fifth like it the way it is (20%). Very few think it too short (6%) or don't have an opinion (2%).

"Voters say they will support the candidate who reflects their own philosophy, which is not surprising, but they'll also vote for the best transit plan. It seems a lot more voters are finding John Tory shares their views, or else they think he has a heck of a transit plan, because this is a significant shift in support in his favour. In addition, they will vote for the candidate who can beat Ford, and that may be increasingly seen to be Tory," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.