Chris Berman has taken his Swami Sez NFL picks segment, seen on SportsCenter, to ESPN Chalk. Each week during the NFL regular season, he'll give his favorite picks against the spread here with a little further analysis.

Season record: 46-23 ATS (last week: 2-3)

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

This is one of the few venues that New England has struggled at during the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick regime, as they are just 2-7 straight up and against the number in Denver. Last year's loss here cost the Patriots home-field advantage and a potential trip to the Super Bowl, but this year's Broncos team isn't quite the same as last year's. Denver's remaining three games are against the only AFC teams with better records. The Broncos' D will give all that it has but will come up just a little short.

Score: New England 20, Denver 19

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers

I expect an old-fashioned AFL shootout in this one, in a stadium that will be full of Raiders fans. San Diego played Oakland close the first time, and even though Melvin Gordon is out, I believe the Chargers will get up for this one. San Diego's Antonio Gates is two TDs behind Tony Gonzalez for the all-time TD record for tight ends, and time is running out to get that. Look for that connection to make some noise. San Diego wearing the powder blues? Rivers gets the ball last and gets it done.

Score: San Diego 28, Oakland 27

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs

It's going to be frigid Sunday in Kansas City, which should point to the running game of Tennessee having success, but I don't know how many cold games Marcus Mariota has played in. I think that could work against him a little here. The Chiefs don't score a lot, but their defense is strong, even with Derrick Johnson lost for the season. Kansas City will be motivated by a shot to still be the top seed in the AFC. It's time for the Chiefs to make Harry Houdini inactive for this one and just claim a normal win. The front seven will be the difference here.

Score: Kansas City 22, Tennessee 14

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

The Texans seem to be a different team at home, as they are 5-1 at Reliant Stadium (and 4-0 in the AFC South). Brock Osweiler has been far from impressive, but this defense is coming on with Jadeveon Clowney & Co., and I still think they're going to win this division. The Jaguars simply can't get out of their own way, and another Blake Bortles turnover seems destined to doom them here.

Score: Houston 24, Jacksonville 13

Detroit Lions at New York Giants

Matthew Stafford's finger is definitely a concern, but he has led the Lions to fourth-quarter comeback wins in eight of their nine victories, so why can't he come back from a finger issue? The story of this game to me is that both defenses are quietly playing better than expected. Neither team can really run the ball, so expect this to be a close, low-scoring game. I like Detroit by a field goal.

Score: Detroit 23, New York Giants 20