India is a diverse country of sharp contrasts. With the election of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister, business confidence – both domestically and abroad – has returned to India. As China continues its slowdown, India looks set to emerge from its recent spell in the economic doldrums. This reversal of fortunes and increased optimism has seen India move back to the spotlight, with renewed interest in what is set to be the world’s fourth largest consumer market by 2030.

Here are some key facts about this US$1.2 trillion market:

1. One-in-five babies born in the world next year will be born in India. At 26.7 million this is more than North America, Latin America, Eastern and Western Europe combined.

Live Births in 2015

Source: Euromonitor International from UN/Eurostat/national statistics

Note: Data are forecast

2. The election of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister has returned confidence in India and GDP should grow by 6.7% in 2015 – the highest rate of growth since 2010.

Real GDP Growth in India: 2008-2015

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/ OECD/IMF

Note: Data for 2014 and 2015 are forecast

3. India will overtake China in 2023 to have the largest population in the world. It is already home to 17.5% of the world’s population, and 20.0% of under 15s.

Total Population in India and China: 1980-2030

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

Note: Data from 2015 onwards are forecast

4. India has a rising middle class – 48 million (or 17.8% of total households) will have a disposable income over US$10,000 in 2015.

Number of Households in India with a Disposable Income over US$10,000: 1990-2015

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

Note: Data are in constant 2013 prices. 2014 and 2015 data are forecast.

5. Having said that, there also remains a large bottom of the pyramid market, with 134 million households earning less than US$5,000 in 2015 – equivalent to $2.85 or less per day per household member. In percentage terms this will drop below 50% for the first time in 2015.

Percentage of Households in India with a Disposable Income below US$5,000: 1990-2015

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

Note: Data are in constant 2013 prices. 2014 and 2015 data are forecast.

6. Stable power is a key challenge but in per capita terms, at 969 KWh, India generates only one quarter of the electricity that China generates. In terms of the quality of electricity supply, in the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report 2013-2014, India is ranked at 111th out of 148 countries – placing it between Mali and Mozambique.

Electricity Production: 2013

Source: Euromonitor International from International Energy Association (IEA)

7. India’s business environment is far from easy, in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business report it ranks at 142 out of 189 countries – the lowest of the BRIC countries. In addition, in contrast to the other three economies which have seen their positions improve or remain stable, India’s position in the rankings has worsened since 2008.

Doing Business 2015 in Brazil, Russia, India and China

Source: World Bank’s Doing Business Report 2015

Note: Ranking out of a total of 189 countries, the higher the ranking the worse the performance.

8. The government’s budget deficit remains a challenge. At 7.2% of GDP in 2013 it is the highest of the BRIC and MINT economies, by a large margin.

Budget Deficit in BRIC and MINT: 2013

Source: Euromonitor International from the IMF

9. India has the highest cinema attendance in the world at an estimated 2,925 million attendances in 2014 – more than twice as many as the USA and 5 times as many as China.

Top 10 Countries with the Highest Number of Cinema Attendances: 2014

Source: Euromonitor International from European Audiovisual Observatory/UNESCO/national statistics

Note: Data are forecast

10. Next year, 19% of the population will be Internet users. At 220 million, India will have the third highest number of Internet users in the world – behind only China and the USA.

Internet Use in India: 2000-2015

Source: Euromonitor International from International Telecommunications Union/OECD/national statistics

Note: Data for 2014 and 2015 are forecast

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