View full size

A port strike would cost the region $136 million a week in personal income and another $110 million in economic output, according to an analysis by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey obtained by The Star-Ledger.

The analysis, written by the P.A.’s chief economist, also warns that "short-term disruptions would also lead to long-term structural changes, which could create additional economic costs."

A potential strike by nearly 15,000 longshoremen threatens to shut down the Port of New York and New Jersey along with three dozen other ports from Maine to Texas, once the union dockworkers' current contract expires on Sept. 30. Talks between the International Longshoremen's Association and the United States Maritime Alliance, which represents their employers, broke down last month.

Both sides agreed to a request by federal mediators to resume negotiations, and a new round of talks is scheduled to begin Sept. 17.

A separate analysis was released Monday by the National Retail Federation, saying some damage has already been done to Gulf and East Coast ports by the mere threat of a strike. It said cargo has already been lost to West Coast ports, where large retail chains planning for the holiday season have rerouted October deliveries because dockworkers there are represented by a different union, and there is no threat of a walkout.

Both analyses say the situation could result in permanent damage to stricken ports, as temporary business relationships formed during or in advance of a strike become permanent.

"That’s what happened in 2002, when we had that 10-day lockout on the West Coast," said Jonathan Gold, a retail federation vice president for supply chain and customs policy. "A lot of cargo shifted to the East Coast and never went back."

Tentative agreements had been reached in July over the union’s demand for job guarantees in the face of port automation and outsourcing. But talks stalled over shippers’ demands for reforms to union work rules that make the ports inefficient.

nj.com-phone-app-pic3.jpg

STAY CONNECTED 24/7

Download our free NJ.com mobile and tablet apps to keep up with the latest New Jersey news, sports and entertainment.

ILA President Harold Daggett, presiding over the ILA’s first Gulf and East Coast contract talks since he was elected last year on a pledge to stand up to employers, said last month that a strike was imminent. The maritime alliance chairman and CEO, James Capo, accused Daggett of refusing to budge on work rules despite the agreement on job guarantees.

After talks broke down, the Port Authority joined business groups in calling on the two sides to resume talks. Its chief economist, Alexander Heil, analyzed a strike’s potential impact.

"The analysis suggests a loss of $100 million in output and $136 million in disposable income in 2012 as a result of a seven-day labor action in the 31-county port region. On a daily basis, the impacts would be $16 million in output and $19 million in personal income," Heil wrote in a document dated Sept. 6.

Follow @starledger

Related coverage:

• Apparel groups urge shippers, longshoremen to keep talking to avoid strike at N.J. port

• Longshoremen's union authorizes strike if labor talks are not settled

• Possible longshoremen's strike could cripple Port of N.Y. and N.J.