The 2018 race for US Senate in Pennsylvania has been relatively quite, but I’m okay with that. Voters have the choice between Bob Casey Jr., the incumbent Democrat, Lou Barletta, a current Republican congressman, Neal Gale, Green Party candidate, and Dale Kearns, the Libertarian candidate.

Despite, it’s sleepiness, I’m watching this race closely. Lou Barletta is a close ally of Donald Trump, who won Pennsylvania in 2016. How much water does this carry? Can Democrats win back the voters they lost in 2016 either because they voted for Trump or didn’t vote at all?

I’m going to engage in some speculation here to prognosticate the race.

Elections are sometimes difficult to forecast, but we can look at a few variables to see which way the wind is blowing. I will look at conventional wisdom, polling data, betting odds, how much money each candidate has raised, and expert opinion.

Conventional Wisdom

Generally speaking, incumbents have an advantage in a typical election. Democrats are also looking at a ‘wave year’ — the extent of what that means is yet to be decided, but generally speaking, Democrats are expected to do well this year. All this bodes well for Bob Casey, an incumbent and a Democrat.

However, I would be a fool not to bring up the 2016 election. Lou Barletta is a close ally to Donald Trump who is an effective campaigner in PA. Barletta is also an effective campaigner, he beat Paul Kanjorski, a 25-year incumbent Democratic congressman in 2010. Conventional wisdom also holds not to totally dismiss the crazy Republican!

Polls

Casey beats Barletta in every credible poll taken of the race. Here is a comprehensive list of them lifted off of wikipedia:

There are two red flags for me as a Casey supporter. Firstly, Casey only broke above 50% in four of these polls — generally that’s a good benchmark to hit. Secondly, and related to the first ‘red flag’, there is a high number of people who still have to make up their mind in the race, the ‘undecideds.’ The way that these people vote will make or break the race for Barletta and Casey.

Betting Odds

On the whole, prediction markets are more accurate at predicting election results than polls are. Here’s some science. Unlike polling scientists and professional prognosticators, bettors are placing more risk (in this case, the risk of losing money) on their opinion. There is also the wisdom of the crowd.

As of 4:19 ET on September 9th, 2018, electionbettingodds.com gives Bob Casey an 85.9% chance of winning.

Money Raised, Money Spent

Money isn’t everything, but it is important to have the resources you need to run a statewide campaign. Money is needed to pay staff, buy ads, and travel around the state to hear from constituents. I put together a chart that shows how much each candidate raised, spent, and how much they have left in their bank accounts.

Bob Casey clearly has the cash advantage here.

Expert Opinion

As of September 6th, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has the race for PA Senate ranked as a ‘Safe Democratic’ seat.

Back in February, G. Terry Madonna & Michael L.Young, wrote a piece prognosticating the Casey vs. Barletta race and concluded that “He [Barletta] is likely to lose. But likely to lose is not certainty that he will.”

Conclusion

On the whole, if this trajectory keeps going, I think Bob Casey is likely to win. To the activists: don’t use this as an excuse to put down your clipboards, phones, and checkbooks. Instead, use this as validation that what you’re doing is working — the final stretch is still ahead of us.

Most of the data I’ve assembled doesn’t look good for Lou Barletta, but maybe there was some selection bias? Can you think of anything that I could include, but didn’t? Write me and give me feedback.