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At the end of the regular season, a pair of alarmed baseball men, not friends who bounce thoughts off one another but adversaries, actually, shared the exact same sentiment about an emerging trend they believe will drive much of the offseason activity this winter.

"Where did all the power go?" asked one.

"Take a guess how many guys hit 30 homers this year," the other asked. "Go ahead."

Thirteen, the reply went, and he was surprised that others knew what so flustered him: The emergence of great young arms, specialized relief pitching and information-loaded scouting data has conspired with fewer players using performance-enhancing drugs to starve home run numbers. The consequence is stark: Power is more expensive than ever in both the free agent and trade markets, and it already is dominating the conversation among agents and executives.

Not one of those 13 who hit 30 homers this season is a free agent, and yet a number of executives believe Brian McCann is going to get $100 million-plus, Mike Napoli a megabucks deal despite strikeout woes and chronic hip issues, Nelson Cruz silly money on the heels of his Biogenesis suspension and even Corey Hart, coming off surgery on both knees, a good nibble. The latter three have cracked 30 before, and McCann plays catcher, where a consistent 20-plus is rare. Among those who could be traded, Giancarlo Stanton is the single best catch among bats, and plenty covet Mark Trumbo in spite of his allergy to plate discipline.

[Free-agent tracker: Position-by-position breakdown]

Why? He launched 34 home runs. It's why the Pirates stick with Pedro Alvarez and the White Sox Adam Dunn in spite of their strikeouts, why Edwin Encarnacion is criminally underrated and Adrian Beltre making a better Hall of Fame case by the year. It's why Paul Goldschmidt's deal is a steal and Evan Longoria's perhaps better, why Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter around and Chris Davis is in a neighboring ZIP code. It's why David Ortiz is Big Papi, Adam Jones is great, Brandon Moss is about to get paid, why Jay Bruce should make Cincinnati think long and hard about a future without him.

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Those are the baker's dozen of 30-plus guys, the smallest class in a full season since 1992. In both 1999 and 2000, 44 players hit 30-plus home runs. Perhaps 2013 is an outlier – 27 players went for 30 or more in 2012 – but the trend downward has been evident across all measures of home runs. Only Davis and Cabrera exceeded 40 homers in 2013. Just 29 reached 25-plus, the lowest since '92. Only 68 were at 20 or more; outside of the 65 in 2011, it was the fewest since '93.

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