Top Federal Reserve officials have said they are open-minded about whether additional interest rate cuts will be necessary in 2019, but recent economic data are putting that equanimity to the test.

The central bank cut rates for the first time since the Great Recession in late July, then followed that up in mid-September, likening the moves to taking out insurance. They were meant to give the economy a little bit of extra padding in case risks on the horizon — from uncertainty created by President Trump’s trade war to economic weakening in Asia and Europe that threatened to spill over — turned into realities.

Data increasingly suggest that a slowdown is, in fact, materializing. Both of the Institute for Supply Management’s closely watched surveys, one that tracks manufacturing and another that monitors services, posted declines for September, reports this week showed. Consumer confidence has shown signs of weakening, and while spending is still growing, it has slowed from a robust pace earlier this year.

Against that backdrop, investors have ramped up their expectations for a rate cut at the Fed’s Oct. 29-30 meeting. In the past week, they have gone from seeing a 50-50 chance that the Fed will cut rates this month to pricing in a move almost entirely.