China's human spaceflight goals

Since launching its first astronaut in 2003, China has made steady human spaceflight progress. The country's first small space station, Tiangong-1, was launched in 2011 and visited by a crew of astronauts in 2012.

Both Tiangong-1 and Tiangong-2 are testbeds meant to pave the way for a more ambitious, three-module station. The first piece of that orbital complex is scheduled to be launched in 2018 atop a new rocket, the Long March 5.

The station would be fully operational around 2020, and be paired with a souped-up space telescope larger than Hubble that would float nearby, giving astronauts easy access for repairs and maintenance.

As for sending humans anywhere else, China's plans are vague, but reports have begun coalescing around a possible 2030 lunar landing.

China's science goals

China's robotic spaceflight program is making even more ambitious strides.

Next year, the country plans to return a sample from the far side of the moon, which would be a first for any nation. In 2018 or 2019, a lander and rover might also be sent to the far side, which would be another first, and require the country to deploy a communications relay satellite.

In 2020, China hopes to send a probe and rover to Mars, which coincides with NASA's plan to send a successor to the Curiosity rover there. That rover, currently dubbed Mars 2020, will collect and cache samples for a future return mission.

NASA has yet to finalize how it will retrieve those samples and get them back to Earth. China, meanwhile, is making plans of its own to launch a Mars sample return mission in 2030.

China's mission would use a yet-to-be-built, super heavy lift rocket named the Long March 9. The rocket could be capable of lifting around 130 metric tons to low-Earth orbit, which would put it on par with the enhanced version of NASA's Space Launch System. (The 70-ton SLS variant is expected to debut in 2018.)

Is there a race?

As far as space exploration is concerned, then, the only common goal between NASA and China is the Mars sample return mission. Assuming a third party like SpaceX does not accelerate the process, there could truly be a scientific race to return the first sample from another planet.

Aside from that, the International Space Station will remain in orbit through at least 2024, ensuring at least a four-year crossover period with China's station. Depending on the long-term fate of the ISS, there could indeed be a day when only Chinese astronauts inhabit low-Earth orbit. NASA, meanwhile, might be moving out to cislunar space by then as part of its Journey to Mars plans—assuming the next president and Congress keeps the agency on its current course.

It remains an open question whether or not an international or private sector partner will step forward to work with NASA on leveraging American cislunar activities to make a final push for the surface. That could set the stage for a 2030s, return-to-the-moon international space race, where the U.S. provides a supporting role for private companies or international allies.

By then, China will likely have gained the prestige of becoming the first country to operate a suite of first-time missions from the lunar farside. All told, it will be an impressive slate of achievements—but mostly in areas where the U.S. is not directly competing.