In the run-up to Gameweek 1, characters such as Willian, Zaha, Tadic, Ramsey and Fabregas were being touted as the key men in the 7.0m category. This made sense; they’re all good prospects – who ultimately provided poor outputs.

The highest scorer from them so far, with a dismal 15 points, is Ramsey; not the kind of value we were hoping for. With these poor returns, the 7.0m price bracket is slowly being forgotten by the hive-mind, eroded from our collective consciousness as if it was never there.

But is this wrong? Should we be erasing them from our consideration, or are they worth remembering?

In this article, we analyse which players in this price range may be worth a second chance. Who knows: they may be just what you need to be able to afford Kane before he leaves you in the dust. For this analysis, we will mostly be looking at expected goals (xG) and assists (xA).

What is xG and why should you care?

It is a way of assigning a “quality” value to every attempt on goal, based on what is known about it. The higher the xG – with the maximum being 1 – the higher the likelihood of that opportunity being converted (e.g. if xG = 0.5, it should be scored 50% of the time). Opta analysed over 300,000 shots to work out the likelihood of an attempt being scored depending on a huge number of variables (e.g. distance from goal, angle of shot, was it a one-on-one, was it a rebound, etc) and use this analysis to determine the xG of every opportunity a player has.

Why is this important?

It tells us whether a goal should have been scored, and if a player should be scoring more (or less) goals from the opportunities they’ve had. From an FPL perspective, this is invaluable: it can help us determine who has been getting into good positions, but hasn’t been producing the goods, and could start doing so soon; and who has been scoring more goals than would be expected from their opportunities, with a likelihood that they will have a reduced output in the future.

When looking at the xG and xA of the better performing (a term used very lightly, I admit) players around this bracket, these were the top 6 players*:

What’s interesting to note right off the bat is that there is only one player at 7 million that is performing somewhat decently: Arsenal’s Welsh wizard Aaron Ramsey. He looks the best option of the bunch, with the highest average combined xG and xA per 90 mins (yellow bar, xG + xA p/90) at 0.70.

Is he just the shiniest turd though?

A quick comparison with the premium midfielders suggests that while he only has 1 goal and assist so far, his xG is bettered by only two midfielders in the entire league: Salah (2.91) and the now injured Pogba (2.01). When looking at his score for xG+xA p/90, again, only Salah (1.27), Mkhitaryan (0.78) and Pogba (0.77) are ahead of Ramsey’s 0.70 (e.g. Eriksen = 0.67, Ozil = 0.57).

His underlying statistics suggest he has been getting into good positions and creating quality chances regularly, so his output should begin to increase as Arsenal’s performances no doubt improve, with the transfer window closed and a strong upcoming schedule after Chelsea.

Here are more detailed comparisons of his stats per 90mins, compared to a few other players** (Ramsey is always green):

Ramsey vs. Tadic

Ramsey vs. Richarlison

Ramsey vs. Alli

Ramsey vs. Mkhitaryan

What’s interesting to note is that Alli and Ramsey have been performing similarly during the time they’ve spent on the pitch, as has Richarlison. Ramsey’s underlying stats are slightly better than the other options mentioned, however, with an xG+xA p/90 of 0.70 compared to Alli’s 0.54 and Richarlison’s 0.56. Obviously, the likes of Eriksen, Mané, Mkhi etc comfortably trounce Ramsey’s numbers, which it to be expected given the price difference. However, this suggests that Ramsey could be the best choice in the hopes of consistent returns for the 7.0m players.

Are there any other options, then?

Richarlison (xG+xA p/90 = 0.56) is the obvious cheap choice according to these stats and, at 6.0m, could be easier to squeeze into your squad. However, Watford’s fixtures are quite tough for the next 6 GWs whilst Arsenal have a favourable run (again, after Chelsea game).

Surprisingly (to me at least), Tadic also appears to be a potential option, with an xG+xA per 90 mins of 0.61. Being on set-pieces is a big plus, and Southampton create chances… they just don’t convert them much. The usual norm is to avoid their attackers, which I would still advise looking at these stats. Tadic’s xG is high (1.53) but this is bolstered by his penalty, which does definitely add to a player’s appeal, but also suggests that he won’t create or score as often as other players, at least until Southampton can start performing in the final third.

Choupo-Moting is an interesting development. With an xG of 1.39, he looks an emerging OOP prospect. However, taking out his United performance (the OOP one), this is reduced to 0.33 – not great. Now, perhaps it’s unfair to remove his best performing game, but I’m just providing a bit more of a rounded perspective, which is important as this is a tough bracket to assess. Simply put, if he isn’t playing OOP, he doesn’t look like a great option. But, if he stays in up front, we may have found this seasons’ King.

So, take-aways from this analysis seem to be that both Ramsey and Richarlison could be good investments for the future. Choupo looks like a solid punt, but it’s still too early to know where he will play in the long run: if he is OOP, in behind Jese, he could be a great differential. However, one performance is not enough to convince me to take the risk.

“But why”, you might ask, “should I bother buying Ramsey when I could get Richarlison/Choupo for so much cheaper when their stats are still pretty solid?”

If you’re still unconvinced, since Ramsey is a tad more expensive than a number of other players mentioned, I went through and compared each player’s expected contributions per 90 mins (this is the yellow bar in original graph above – xG+xA p/90) with their current prices. Here are the results:

Again, we see Ramsey come out on top: the underlying stats suggest that Ramsey should be the best performer in the coming weeks out of all these players, and the best value pick as well. This is further amplified by the great run the Gunners have between GW6-10. I included the likes of Mahrez & Sigurdsson to provide more comparisons, but still Ramsey looks the best option according to the stats.

Below, is the xG of more players in this bracket, for comparison, but they all fair much worse than Ramsey and Co. above.

In short, Ramsey looks like he could be the player to remind people that £7.0m is not a pointless vacuum. After doing this research, I’m planning on switching Mané to Ramsey which also means I can finally afford Kane.

Money, meet mouth.

*All data on expected goals & assist from understat.com

**Player vs. player comparison graphs obtained from fantasyfootballcloud.com, follow them on Twitter @FPLcloud

Thanks go to the lads at Who Got The Assist (@WGTA) for their tips and help in putting this piece together, much appreciated!