Story highlights Julian Zelizer: Georgia 6th District vote will have bigger consequences than its outcome

Ossoff win could scare GOP away from Trump -- Handel victory could further split Dems

Julian Zelizer, a history and public affairs professor at Princeton University and a CNN political analyst, is the author of "The Fierce Urgency of Now: Lyndon Johnson, Congress, and the Battle for the Great Society." He's co-host of the "Politics & Polls" podcast. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own.

(CNN) When voters go to the polls for a special election in Georgia's 6th Congressional District, where Newt Gingrich broke into the halls of power back in 1978, the national media will be paying close attention to whether Democrat Jon Ossoff can defeat Republican Karen Handel.

An Ossoff victory would be the first Democratic special election success since President Donald Trump took office and, for the party, hopefully a harbinger of things to come in the 2018 midterms. Both parties have invested a huge amount of resources into this race -- making it the most expensive House contest ever.

Julian Zelizer

Regardless of who prevails, any predictions made after the election should be taken with a grain of salt. Special elections depend on a number of factors specific to the local electorate -- and historically are not very accurate predictors of who wins the midterms.

The midterm elections of 2018 are also many months away. In our current turbulent world, who knows what the political landscape may look like months from now when most candidates start their campaigns.

The narrative that emerges from the election will have more important political consequences on Capitol Hill than the outcome of the vote itself. The interpretation of what happens -- whether the chaos from the Trump administration has made the GOP vulnerable or whether even amid that chaos the party remains strong at the electoral level -- could influence the way that Republicans handle a series of pivotal decisions on the Hill over the summer.

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