NEW YORK WASHINGT ON,DC HARTFORD DENVER CHICAGO GLOBAL STRATEGY GROUP

A new survey conducted by Global Strategy Group of likely 2018 voters in

California’s 25

th

Congressional District shows Congressman Steve Knight in a tight race for his seat. The two-term incumbent holds a sli m 5-point lead over Katie Hill, with 15 percent of voters still undecided in their support. Facing an already tight race, Knight risks alienating undecided voters and moderates in

California’s 25

th

District by continuing to support

Trump’s

anti-environment policies. Plans to reduce clean air and water regulations, and open public lands and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas drilling are opposed by sizable majorities of voters in this district. Most important, after voters are presented w ith a short series of critiques of

Knight’s

positions on a range of environmental issues (along with one message on healthcare or taxes), Hill moves to a 6-point lead over Knight. These messages are effective across demographic groups and are particularly effective in moving registered no party prefere nce voters toward Hill.

KEY SURVEY FINDINGS:

Knight does not start out in a strong position.

This district prefers a generic Democrat by one poin t when compared to a Republican, despite

Knight’s

win in 2016. Knight must also s truggle with the significant unpopularity of Republicans in Congress (37% favorable to 4 7% unfavorable) and working with a Pre sident whose ratings are underwater (43% favorable to 49% unfavorable).

Environmental groups are popular, but anti-environmental actors like Scott Pruitt and the Koch Brothers are decidedly not.

“Environmental groups” are viewed favorably by a

49% to 25% margin in this district. Meanwhile, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt

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is well underwater at 14% favorable to 41% unfavorable and the Koch Brothers are very unpopular, at 9% favorable vs. 33% unfavorable.

Knight’s

positions on environmental issues are deeply unpopular

. Many of the policies proposed and/or enacted by anti-environment Republicans like Knight in Washington

–

led by efforts to open our public lands and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas companies and

–

are quite unpopular, even more than the highly unpopular Republican health care plan.

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Asked with the label “EPA Administrator”

TO

:

Interested Parties

FROM

:

Andrew Baumann, Global Strategy Group

DATE

:

June 29, 2018

RE

: