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Once upon a time, a long 10 years ago, natural gas was a $50 billion a year business in Canada. Today it’s only $15 billion. Liberating Canada’s natural gas business out of the continental cage should boost revenues, propelled by both output and value. How much value is debatable, but anything is better than what is being realized now.

Royalties are driven off revenue and taxes off profit. Right now there is not much of either happening. The unspoken reality is that Canada is shipping natural gas to customers, especially the United States, for almost zero “rent” as economists would say, or “value-add” in the jargon of policy wonks. Let’s just call it “money,” and note that there should be more of it upon entry to higher value global markets.

But no one should expect an overnight windfall. Like the TransCanada Mainline, realizing value from LNG facilities will be a multi-decade play. And like the late 1950s, the decision to build is one of recognizing a long-term growth market.

Natural gas has been outpacing oil demand growth since the 1960s. As a substitute for both coal and oil, the growth profile for natural gas is likely to steepen. Estimates from various agencies range from 40 per cent to 50 per cent increase in global consumption over the next 25 years. Given the scalability of natural gas and its relatively attractive carbon emissions, the growth rate could be even higher. So the next half-a-trillion dollars could come faster than the first.

Peter Tertzakian is chief energy economist and managing director at Calgary-based ARC Financial Corp.