Scouts on Marc Gasol injury: Grizzlies will struggle

Sam Amick | USA TODAY Sports

The Memphis Grizzlies were fine if this debate stayed dormant from now until forever, this discussion about center Marc Gasol and whether his value was as real as advertised or perhaps the product of the analytic movement that has gained so much speed in recent years.

They already knew the answer. Now everyone else is about to find out.

The Grade 2 medial collateral ligament sprain in Gasol's left knee that has sidelined him indefinitely will put a strain on the Grizzlies' operation in ways they've never known. This was the situation they didn't need to see to believe, the loss of the big man who has anchored their top-tier defense for these past six seasons during what has been a remarkable run of health. And after the Grizzlies (7-6) returned the same core of grit-and-grind players who made the franchise's first visit to the Western Conference finals last May, Gasol's absence could open up an opportunity for another contender.

While the Grizzlies have not offered a timetable for Gasol's return, a person with knowledge of the situation said the best-case scenario for Memphis has the reigning defensive player of the year returning in approximately four or five weeks. Or, depending on the uniqueness of his physiology, his ligament could take as much as 10 weeks to heal. The person spoke to USA TODAY Sports on the condition of anonymity because the timetable has not been determined officially.

"Oh man, he's their — I can't say 'glue' because he's more important than that — but I think he's definitely the engine behind that team," Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge told USA TODAY Sports. "He rebounds, scores, passes, so I feel like if they don't have him that's going to be tough. They still have good players to maybe win games, but they won't be as dominant without him because he's hard to guard and makes their team so much more sharp.

"When he's in the game, he's controlling the paint, blocking shots, talking guys through their position. He helps everybody else be where they should be, so he definitely has that dominance on the floor."

Gasol's distinction as defensive player of the year last season was criticized by many, largely because his impact is harder to quantify than statistically inclined centers such as Dwight Howard. He ranked 23rd in rebounds per game (7.8) and 12th in blocks per game (1.74) last season, and Howard himself, a three-time Defensive Player of the Year, was publicly critical of Gasol's candidacy in part because of his standing when it came to those statistics.

But Gasol's effect on the collective performance was profound. With him on the court last season, the Grizzlies allowed 95.4 points per 100 possessions. With him on the bench, they allowed 102.2 points per 100 possessions. That mark hadn't been as stark this season, but that had as much to do with the getting-to-know-you period between first-year coach Dave Joerger and his players as anything. And his offense, meanwhile, has been better than ever as he was averaging a career-best 16.0 points per game to go with 7.1 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.1 blocks per game.

His absence means Kosta Koufos will be front and (starting) center, and the late June trade that brought him to town certainly will come in handy now. This will become more of a trial run of sorts for fourth-year forward Ed Davis as well, a stretch that will likely tell the Grizzlies all they need to know when it comes time to handle his restricted free agency come July. Still, the widely held belief is that the Grizzlies simply aren't the same without Gasol.

To get a better understanding of what his absence will mean, USA TODAY Sports asked three NBA advance scouts to share their views on what the real impact will be. The scouts requested anonymity because they are not permitted by their respective teams to speak about opposing teams publicly.

Scout No. 1 (from the Western Conference):

"As if the Grizzlies didn't have enough issues, this happens. They already struggle to score, but with Gasol out, it could get worse. He means so much to them on both ends. He's a threat offensively in the paint, but he can also pick and pop or roll efficiently. He and (forward) Zach (Randolph) probably play the high/low game (in the post) better than any other big man duo. Now they will have to force feed Zach a lot more. Defenses can now double him more and force him to pass out of double teams where he's not as good as Gasol. The backups are not consistent scorers so they have a huge void to fill, literally.

"Defensively they are not nearly as good as they were in the past. Now it gets worse. Gasol is their best paint defender and he defends pick and rolls well for a big. Scoring in the paint will become easier for their opponents. I think he has one of the biggest b-ball IQ's on the team, and he's one of the leaders they need badly, so those are other areas in which he will be missed. I hate to beat a dead horse but trading (Rudy) Gay (to the Toronto Raptors) last season, then firing (coach Lionel) Hollins this summer, is, and will continue to haunt them."

Scout No. 2 (from the Eastern Conference):

"Losing Marc for any length will hurt the Grizzlies. Marc has such a high level basketball IQ, and is such a good facilitator. He can score in the post, make high-low passes to Randolph and make plays ... on the perimeter. What can't be overlooked is that he knows where every player is suppose to be on the court and many times has to direct Zach where to go.

"He is also a smart, positional defender. In addition, he is competitive and is a quiet, but respected leader in the locker room. Koufos will give them solid minutes, but now Ed Davis or (third-year forward) Jon Leuer will have to contribute key minutes in relief. I expect the Grizzlies will give Randolph a lot of looks in the post, And also Memphis will try to play small more with Miller stretching the floor as the 4-man. They struggle to score and now a key part of their offense will be sidelined for a stretch."

Scout No. 3 (from the Western Conference):

"(The impact is) pretty obvious to me. (His absence) makes a team lacking depth even leaner, diminishes their physicality, (and) takes away their high-low game with him and Zach of which they are the best in the league. He's a locker room leader — and not that he won't be around but it is less effective when a guy is in a suit and not short pants. It will make them more perimeter-oriented and rely on Koufos, who is a glorified (NBA Development League player). They will find out if Ed Davis is the real deal or not. ... At one time management thought his presence made Randolph expendable, which is laughable. Guys like Jon Leuer will have to play some minutes, and he wouldn't be good in the D-League. Of course it takes the threat of a double-double every night from your (center) off the books, (and) it will affect (point guard Mike) Conley since Gasol is their best screener in pick and rolls."