Prior to this year, the Oakland Raiders had been the laughingstock of the NFL. They hadn’t made the playoffs since 2003, and they had suffered from many bad draft selections. One draft class helped take them out of that hole. In 2014, they selected edge rusher Khalil Mack out of Buffalo in the first round. The explosive pass rusher is now one of the best defensive players in the NFL. They followed that up with the selection of quarterback Derek Carr from Fresno State. Before he got hurt late in the year, he was an MVP candidate leading the team with the best chance to beat the New England Patriots in the AFC championship. They followed that class up with two very good drafts, which helped fill in other needs. The Chicago Bears need to follow that approach.

The Bears have been following this method, but in reverse. They have had two very good drafts, but haven’t had one that’s blown everyone away. To do that, they will absolutely need to draft a quarterback. Like the Raiders though, they absolutely cannot reach for one.

Let’s take a look at the 2014 quarterback class. The consensus top three were Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel (in no particular order). While all four were solid prospects, none of them were worthy of a high first-round pick. The Raiders realized this and drafted Mack instead in the first round. They eventually went with a value pick in the second round with Carr. The Jacksonville Jaguars, on the other hand, reached for Blake Bortles because they needed a quarterback. Oakland is an elite team, whereas the Jaguars are not.

This situation is very similar to what the Bears are in right now. They have a lot of needs, quarterback being one of them. Like the 2014 group, this year doesn’t have a QB that screams “future star”. Neither Mitch Trubisky, DeShone Kizer nor Deshaun Watson are close enough to being “sure-things”. All three have enough drawbacks that make them not worthy of being a true value pick in the top five. With the roster they have right now, the Bears cannot afford to reach for a position. They need to go with the best available value in every round. That strategy does not involve picking a quarterback in the first round. Instead, they need an elite defensive prospect.

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As of now, the three best defensive players not named Myles Garrett in this draft are Jonathan Allen, Jamal Adams and Malik Hooker. All three of these players can fill in immediately for the Bears and shine. Adams and Hooker fill a huge need in Chicago’s defense, while Allen has potential to be a player on the caliber of J.J. Watt. They are all elite prospects with sky-high ceilings – this can’t be said about any of the first-round quarterbacks.

If they pass up on a quarterback in the first round, then they’ll need to find a value pick later. Luckily for them, they’ll probably have a player of great value in the second round: Patrick Mahomes. He’s not a quarterback who can start right away, but he has the highest ceiling out of any QB in this class. He has the strongest arm in the class, superb size and athleticism and put up insane stats at Texas Tech. Arizona State defensive coordinator Keith Patterson compared him to Green Bay Packers legend Brett Favre. Bears fans know first hand that this is a good comparison.

In all, the Bears really can’t afford to reach for a quarterback. There simply isn’t a good track record of teams that have reached and succeeded. General manager Ryan Pace has stuck to a value-based draft strategy, which has worked so far. They need to commit to that more than ever this year.

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