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“What the BoC may be implicitly assuming is that the rate sensitivity of the mortgage book has been dropped to around zero in the wake of the tightened mortgage rules,” the economist said in a report. “Therefore if they cut, the easier monetary policy conditions won’t be transmitted to mortgage borrowers.”

Holt objects to some of these assumptions, noting that several rounds of mortgage rule tightening since 2008 have failed to severe the link between mortgage credit and changes in interest rates.

Canada still faces household debt that’s at an all-time high, and record strength in the country’s largest housing markets, Toronto and Vancouver.

“If tighter mortgage rules did not eliminate sensitivity of mortgage growth to rate changes through all of the changes since 2008 then why would one have tremendous conviction that the latest round will do so?” Holt asked.

“Rates matter to the currency. They likely also still matter to the mortgage book,” he added.

Economists at National Bank Financial didn’t think Poloz sounded very confident about the BoC’s forecasts during the press conference, and this relates to upside risks in the housing market.

They noted that the Federal government is due to unveil its 2017 immigration target soon, and a significant increase is expected from the current level of 300,000 per year.

If that occurs, housing demand in Canada’s largest cities will get a boost.

Nonetheless, the NBF economists continue to believe the BoC’s next move will be a rate increase, although it will be delayed until 2018 based on the central bank’s opinion about the output gap.