Joshua Spivak is a senior fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform at Wagner College in New York. He writes the Recall Elections Blog. The views expressed in this commentary are the author's own. View more opinions at CNN.

(CNN) The blue wave that swept the midterm elections in November along with the continuing investigations into President Donald Trump have led to discussions of a potential Republican primary challenge in 2020. Sen. Susan Collins has said a GOP primary would be a good idea, while outgoing Sen. Jeff Flake and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are being talked up as possible contenders.

Joshua Spivak

While Trump himself has said he would welcome the challenge, South Carolina Republicans are discussing the possibility of canceling the presidential primary to avoid a challenger.

With Trump still retaining a stranglehold on the GOP base, a successful primary challenge seems unlikely. But if history is any judge, an intraparty battle -- even if the challenger is unsuccessful -- could be devastating for the incumbent.

No sitting President who sought his party's nomination has been denied it since Chester Arthur in 1884 -- Arthur only got the office following President James Garfield's assassination. And presidents who face a serious re-election challenge have regularly gone down in defeat in the general election.

While the story of 19th century presidents is generally a tale of one-termers, presidents since McKinley have been very successful at winning re-election. It's notable that none of the 13 presidents (including the four VPs who moved up following the death of a president) who won re-election faced a serious primary challenge. They all were essentially handed the ballot line.

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