Four years after the NBA went on a spending spree, with teams flush with cap space thanks to the league’s last major broadcast deal, several of those teams are just emerging from a bevy of bad decisions. The popular assumption is that it’s time for many who missed — or weren’t here yet for — the 2016 cap spike bonanza to finally get paid.

Unfortunately, that assumption may lead to more than a few disappointed players. With nearly 200 potential free agents on the market, there may simply not be enough cap space to go around.

For team governors, this may be one of the best offseasons in a decade or more to build a team of quality players on the cheap. Teams like the Boston Celtics, trying to retool on the fly after some high-profile departures, couldn’t come at a better moment.

In fact, it’s quite possible this was exactly what Celtics co-governor Wyc Grousbeck was referencing when he said “It’s a good time to be trying to retool like this”.

Without diving to deep into the numbers, the situation is as follows:

According to Yahoo’s Keith Smith, the league is currently looking at only four teams likely to have enough cap space to sign two max contract free agents — the Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, New York Knicks and Sacramento Kings.

Updated 2019 projected cap space after the NBA Draft: 1. NYK- $70.5M

2. SAC- $62.6M

3. LAC- $51.8M

4. BKN- $48.5M

5. IND- $34.1M

6. BOS- $34.1M

7. NOP- $30.3M

8. DAL- $29.8M

9. LAL- $27.7M

10. CHI- $20.8M

11. MIL- $19.5M

12. DEN- $16.9M

13. PHX- $14.1M

14. ATL- $12.9M — Keith Smith (@KeithSmithNBA) June 21, 2019

Using the same data, there should be no more than five other teams able to get in range of a max-level contract. Furthermore, no other teams should be able to offer a 10-year veteran the max as they get paid more than veterans with seven years of NBA experience.

The Indiana Pacers, New Orleans Pelicans and Celtics will be able to get to the level of any max contract under ten years of experience (current projections suggest max contracts for players with at least 10 years of experience will be around $38,150,000; those with 7-9 years of experience will earn around $32,700,000; and those with six years of experience or less will make $27,250,000).

The Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers ought to be able to offer a player with under seven years of NBA experience one max contract each, bringing the grand total of teams able to get within striking distance of a max player to a mere 13 teams.

On the other side of the free agency equation, there are four players who could change teams this summer virtually assured to get the full max contract for which they are eligible — Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson — as well as another eight veterans who could conceivably end up garnering a full max or close enough to equate with a lesser-experience max deal with the right team or structure. Those players include Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker, Khris Middleton, Tobias Harris, Al Horford, D’Angelo Russell, Malcolm Brogdon and Kristaps Porzingis.

This gives us 12 players who are all but assured to eat up a hefty bite of cap should they change franchises, and with only Brogdon, Porzingis, and Russell unable to decide — as restricted free agents — their own fate, decisions from Leonard, Durant, Walker and the rest of the top 2019 free agencies may have reverberations almost down to the minimum contract level.

While there may be space for more than a dozen max deals this summer, at least one of those teams is likely to use the space to take on distressed or poor-fitting contracts in exchange for assets. Several will need to fill out rosters with some of their cap space, effectively removing them from contention for these free agents.

The race to end up in cap space doesn’t stop there, however. There are more than 20 other free agents on the market who might garner more than next season’s projected full mid-level exception (expected to be about $9.2 million per year).

Players like Harrison Barnes, Bojan Bogdanovic, Marc Gasol, Marcus Morris Sr., Jonas Valanciunas, Nikola Vucevic, DeMarcus Cousins and Julius Randle are just some of the free agents who fall in this in-between range, and additional developments — perhaps the Oklahoma City Thunder or Miami Heat making moves to shed salary — could further constrict the market.

There will be a number of quality young players who may be forced to sign shorter, high-value deals as a result. Some of those players might just end up filling up Boston’s bench this season and being folded into a bigger deal the next.

It’s too soon to say for sure but it’s looking like Wyc might just be right.