Stephanie Wang

stephanie.wang@indystar.com

A new poll gives U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz a significant lead in Indiana's Republican presidential primary, with support from 44.8 percent of voters polled.

The Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics poll puts GOP front-runner Donald Trump in second place with 29 percent and John Kasich in third with 13.3 percent of the vote.

But 13 percent of Hoosier voters surveyed said voluntarily that they didn't know who they would vote for — and, paired with a 4.9 percent margin of error, that could still put the candidates in a neck-and-neck race.

"I can understand this might be an incredibly optimistic poll for Cruz," said Andy Downs, director of the politics center. "But I think there must be something going on in the electorate that makes the race closer than some people think."

On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, 55 percent to 40.3 percent, with 4.8 percent of voters undecided.

The poll was conducted among 400 voters across the state from April 13-27. Downs said 30 percent of the surveys were completed before Cruz and Kasich announced a pact for Kasich to pull out of campaigning in Indiana, intended to block Trump from winning the state.

Downs said in a statement that the poll results are still “good news for Cruz, but the volatility of the electorate means all campaigns should view these results cautiously.”

Downs said he thinks the Cruz-Kasich pact is not likely to help either of the two candidates, because they didn't effectively tell voters whether they should stick with their preferred candidate or switch over to support Cruz.

A handful of responses were completed after Cruz announced Carly Fiorina would be his vice presidential pick if he won the Republican nomination, he said.

Two other polls provided to IndyStar and conducted prior to those two announcements gave Trump slight leads over Cruz in Indiana. An aggregation of six polls by Real Clear Politics gives Trump a lead of 2.3 percentage points.

Trump and Cruz, who have made numerous campaign trips throughout the state, will return to the Indianapolis area Monday to make a final push for votes before Tuesday’s primary.

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Trump will make an appearance Monday afternoon at the Center for the Performing Arts in Carmel. The national Republican front-runner is also holding events Sunday and Monday in Terre Haute, South Bend and Fort Wayne.

Cruz, meanwhile, will head Monday evening to the Exposition Hall at the Indiana State Fairgrounds as a special guest of “An American Rally,” where TV personality Glenn Beck will also appear. The event is organized by the Keep the Promise PAC, which is supporting Cruz’s presidential run. Carly Fiorina, who Cruz named last week as his pick for vice president should he secure the nomination, will also attend.

Cruz is also scheduled for events in La Porte and Fort Wayne.

Indiana Gov. Mike Pence will campaign for Cruz on Monday, according to Cruz campaign communications director Alice Stewart.

Pence, who endorsed Cruz on Friday while also commending Trump, recorded a radio ad for the Cruz campaign.

Gov. Mike Pence endorses Ted Cruz, also praises Donald Trump

"I really admire the way Ted Cruz has been willing to stand up for taxpayers in opposing runaway spending, deficits and debt, calling for and leading on repealing Obamacare," Pence says in the ad. "I think the man has shown the courage of his convictions. It’s not a popular thing in Washington, D.C., to take on the leadership of your own party, and he’s been willing to do that."

The Cruz campaign also released its Indiana leadership team Saturday, a list of 38 current and former elected officials and key grass-roots leaders supporting the Texas senator. It includes fiscal leaders in the state legislature such as Sen. Brandt Hershman, R-Buck Creek, and Rep. Tim Brown, R-Crawfordsville, in addition to state lawmakers who have shown dedication to religious liberty and other social conservative issues, such as Republican Sens. Dennis Kruse of Auburn, Travis Holdman of Markle and Scott Schneider of Indianapolis.

Social conservative leader Curt Smith, president of the Indiana Family Institute, is also on Cruz's Indiana team.

Stewart said the campaign is making its final push through Indiana's May 3 primary election day.

"The last-minute get-out-the-vote effort is critical," she said.

IndyStar reporter Jill Disis contributed to this story. Call IndyStar reporter Stephanie Wang at (317) 444-6184. Follow her on Twitter: @stephaniewang.

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