In the midst of a brutal shakeout in higher education, Linfield College leaders like to think their McMinnville institution is a happy exception.

After six years of enrollment declines and downsizing, the college is trying to claw its way back. A well-timed enrollment boomlet this year helped bring some stability to what was a listing ship and President Miles K. Davis insists Linfield is bound for bigger and better times.

To signal its big plans for the future, the college’s board of trustees voted unanimously Saturday to adopt a new name -- Linfield University.

The 162-year-old school expanded popular programs and created some from scratch, including sports management, pre-law and wine studies. It offered new amenities, from pet-friendly dorms to a marching band. And leaders set the stage to enlarge the school’s respected nursing program in Portland.

If Linfield pulls off a major turnaround, it will be a considerable achievement. Elsewhere in Oregon and the rest of the nation, the higher education news is downright grim. The announcement Monday that Concordia University-Portland will close in May brings to three the number of Oregon colleges that have failed since 2018.

Nationally, the college death toll is 111. And the number is much higher if you consider for-profit colleges -- the Chronicle of Higher Education reports more than a thousand closures in that sector across the country.

College closures are brutal for both students and teachers. At Concordia, more than 1,500 people stand to lose their full- and part-time positions. Students must uproot themselves, transfer and worry about the possibility that wherever they end up, their new school may not accept some of their credits.

For instance, most Concordia students were required to take religion classes – up to nine credits many worry they’ll lose.

National experts predict the turmoil will only increase. Enrollment has flattened for many schools and plummeted for others as the millennial generational bulge ages out and the protracted economic boom lures potential students into the job market.

Nationally, college enrollment dropped to 17.2 million as of last spring, the 8th straight year of decline.

“It is a little bit inevitable, it’s the demographics,” said Carolina Recchi, co-founder of Edsights, a technology company that helps colleges improve their student retention rates. “The target market is shrinking.”

The Ivy League and other prestigious institutions still get plenty of eager applicants. But those in the middle -- the standard-issue private liberal arts schools -- are vulnerable, she said.

Public schools also feel the pain, particularly smaller, regional institutions.

In a series of newly completed analyses of public schools in Oregon, the state Higher Education Coordinating Commission singled out Southern Oregon University in Ashland for its financial weakness. According to state figures, the university’s fall 2019 enrollment was the lowest in a decade. Total headcount has declined 11.5% since the post-recession peak in 2011. Expenses exceeded total revenue in both 2018 and 2019.

Higher education regulators use a metric called the composite financial index to provide “an overall assessment of (an) institution’s financial health.” While regulators consider a rating of 3.0 to be satisfactory, Southern Oregon’s composite financial index was negative .86.

“Overall, Southern Oregon faces a challenging financial future with limited flexibility,” the commission report states. “Given declining enrollment and increasing expenses, the need remains clear to further reengineer the institution to identify opportunities while preserving academic quality.”

University officials could not be reached.

Jane Oates, former executive director of the New Jersey Commission on Higher Education, said other states are hurting worse than Oregon. Wisconsin intends to consolidate several campuses, she said, while Pennsylvania seems headed in the same direction.

“The numbers just aren’t’ working,” Oates said. “The number of 18- to 22-year-olds keeps going down for the next 15 years.”

Oates recommends that college administrators and professors work closely with business leaders on their fast-changing needs. She is president of WorkingNation, a nonprofit focusing on how technology is changing the future of work.

Knowing the private sector’s needs would help colleges mold more attractive job candidates, she said. And coincidentally, when colleges help graduates find jobs they get more loyal alumni.

Ben Cannon, executive director of Oregon’s Higher Education Coordinating Commission, agrees, adding that "the economic transformation we’re looking at in the near future, the demand for post-secondary education will only increase.”

A year ago, Linfield itself seemed destined for the higher ed intensive care unit. Enrollment was falling. A major downsizing seemed inevitable. School leaders already had eliminated administrative and staff positions, frozen hiring, flattened salaries, reduced retirement benefits and increased tuition.

Linfield administrators said Davis managed to attain the financial stability he needed with just 13 early retirements.

Then after several years of decline, a storm surge of new students enrolled this fall. The final number was 459, not a record, but a 40 percent increase from the prior year. It was the biggest fall class since 2016.

Now Davis and the college trustees are betting big that the 165-year-old institution can be the exception to the higher-ed rule.

About a year ago, the school spent $13 million for 20 acres near Portland International Airport that housed the University of Western States Chiropractic. The building will allow Linfield to move its respected nursing program out of cramped quarters in Northwest Portland.

The expanded wine studies program, funded by a $6 million grant from local winery founders Grace and Ken Evenstad, was revamped and enlarged in 2018 with input from the large Yamhill County wine community. Forty students have made it their major or minor.

Still, in today’s difficult environment anything can happen.

Over the last decade, Concordia had launched its own expansion and construction boom. Outwardly, it seemed a rousing success. Then, with little warning, the college announced its imminent closure. Some of those new buildings are likely to be put up for sale.

Yet back in McMinnville, Linfield leaders are bullish.

As for those pet-friendly dorms, 57 students now live on campus with pets or service animals. The marching band is up and going, a regular performer at Linfield football games. Davis said the band attracted 25 new students.

Davis long-term goal? Double enrollment to 4,000.

“The bottom line is, since 2008, the perception of higher education has changed. People come to college now in large part to update and upgrade their employment skills. We introduced programs that made all the sense in the world for this area,” he said. “Everyone is looking for the silver bullet.”