Only seven years ago, I started a basketball column headlined “The worst conference in history” with this line: “You couldn’t even call the Eastern Conference an apocalypse — it’s more like a poopocalypse.” Eleven Eastern teams had already fallen at least two games under .500. The five Atlantic Division teams were a combined 25-46. An expensive Knicks team was somehow just one game out of a playoff spot. Are you getting a little déjà vu?

So if you’re looking for silver linings for the Eastern Conference in 2014, know that things didn’t turn out THAT bad in 2007. All three division winners won at least 44 games. Seven teams finished .500 or better; three won 49 games or more. Only two teams won fewer than 30 games: the 28-win Bucks (rewarded with Yi Jianlian) and the 24-win Celtics (rewarded with The Pick That Didn’t Become Durant Or Oden, as well as my all-time rock-bottom Celtics column).

That’s what happens when 15 flawed teams spend 60 percent of the time playing each other. SOMEBODY HAS TO WIN. Those artificially inflated win totals end up obscuring real problems. You know, like the East placing zero players on 2007’s All-NBA first team. Like Isiah’s Knicks somehow winning 33 games behind the Un-Big Three: Eddy Curry, Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis. Like five “marquee” Eastern stars (Shaq, Kidd, Iverson, Marbury and Ben Wallace) showing real signs of decline. Like the post-melee Pacers missing the playoffs while nearly driving away their already-scarred fan base (and no, Stephen Jackson’s shooting-a-gun-in-the-air-during-a-strip-club-hit-and-run incident didn’t help). Like the Raptors somehow winning 47 games with Anthony Parker, T.J. Ford and Jorge Garbajosa playing big minutes. Like the Cavaliers becoming our most overmatched NBA Finals team since the ’71 Bullets.

The biggest difference this season: The 2014 Pacers and Heat are much better than anyone from 2007. They’re headed for 60-plus wins and an epic Round 3 showdown. So, for this year’s Eastern Conference to reach “Poopocalypse II: Bigger and Badder” proportions, everyone else needs to lead us to that historical sewer. Right now, we have 13 teams treading water (Atlanta, Charlotte, Washington, Detroit), self-combusting (New York, Cleveland), reeling/grieving (Chicago), playing an “are we competing or tanking?” waiting game (Boston, Toronto, Orlando, Philly), begrudgingly tanking just from sheer incompetence (Milwaukee), or treating their fans to basketball S&M (Brooklyn). The combined records of those 13 teams? An astonishing 89-150.

How much self-sabotage can we expect as the jockeying begins for Ping-Pong balls in next June’s ridiculously loaded lottery? Which mediocre team will make an improbable run at 48 wins? Which egregiously messed-up New York franchise will ultimately rally to win the Shatlantic? Will Danny Ainge have to kidnap Brad Stevens in March to avoid going .500? Who will find Lawrence Frank’s body, and where will they find it? We’ll save Miami and Indiana for another column. Let’s rank everyone else from “Most likely to get a no. 3 seed” to “Most likely to finish last in the East while possibly making Dr. James Naismith do 360s in his grave.”

3. ATLANTA HAWKS, 10-10

The Good News: No more Joe Johnson, no more Josh Smith. Why? Because Danny Ferry followed his Atrocious GM–worthy Cleveland stint by redeeming himself Belichick-style in Atlanta. He allowed Smith to leave, then signed Paul Millsap (two years, $19 million) and re-signed Jeff Teague (four years, $32 million) for less than Smith’s Detroit deal ($54 million). He convinced Nets GM Billy King to take Joe Johnson’s aggressively horrific contract while allowing Atlanta to swap first-rounders with them in 2014 and 2015. (Read that last sentence again.) He re-signed Kyle Korver, who’s currently hotter than the equator. He drafted promising young point guard Dennis Schroeder, a.k.a. The German Rajon Rondo. And he left himself with in-season flexibility — the Hawks have tradable pieces (if they want to tank) and tradable assets (if they want to contend). Kudos to Danny.

(And yes, I’m overpraising a GM because so many other GMs will take a beating in this column. You’ve been warned.)

The Bad News: Brooklyn’s disastrous start complicates Atlanta’s to-tank-or-not-to-tank strategy. Now what? With Teague blossoming into a genuine asset, the Hawks could easily grab a no. 3 seed with one more move: just package their two expirings ($5.5 million of Elton Brand and Gustavo Ayon) with future goodies, then pursue one more perimeter guy like Thaddeus Young, Jeff Green or maybe even Arron Afflalo. But what if Brooklyn turns it around and both teams make the playoffs? Can Atlanta risk missing out on a 2014 lottery pick?

(Thinking.)

You’re right — there’s no way Brooklyn turns this thing around. Jason Kidd looks so lifeless on the bench, he should have replaced Lawrence Frank with Andrew McCarthy and Jonathan Silverman. Go for the no. 3 seed, Atlanta.

Random Thought: I love Kyle Korver’s shot chart …

… especially when you compare it to Josh Smith’s shot chart.

SportVU Revelation: If you’re not checking out NBA.com’s SportVU numbers, you’re missing out on NBA nerdvana. For instance, I mentioned Teague’s mini-leap this season: 16.8 PPG, 8.0 APG and 17.96 PER, although he’s in a 3-point-shooting slump (just 26 percent). Well, you know what happens if we cover every NBA court with cameras to measure everything an NBA player does? We find out things like “only five players average nine-plus drives per game” and “one of those five guys is Jeff Teague.” Where has this stuff been my whole life? I wish SportVU covered The Walking Dead.

Most Interesting Subplot: Atlanta’s two best players (Al Horford and Paul Millsap) earn a combined $21.5 million, nearly the same number that Brooklyn pays Joe Johnson ($21.47 million). Next year, the Horford-Millsap salaries stay the same while Johnson leapfrogs them ($23.18 million). Oh, and Brooklyn owes him $24.89 million for the 2015-16 season. Here’s my question: Could Billy King win Executive of the Year for saving the Hawks, Blazers AND Celtics? How many GMs have rebuilt three teams that weren’t their own? I mean, other than Isiah Thomas?

Worst-Case Scenario: Atlanta goes all-in for a high seed, then Jason Kidd mysteriously disappears during an All-Star Weekend ski trip with Mikhail Prokhorov and is replaced by George Karl … who, of course, gets Brooklyn into the playoffs.

Prognosis: I can’t see the Hawks avoiding 47 wins without framing Horford and/or Millsap for a crime. Sorry, Danny. You did too good of a job. Repeat: They get to swap picks with Brooklyn in 2014 and 2015. Amazing. I wish I could trade Billy King my three-year-old 60-inch plasma for a $29,000 credit from Best Buy and the right to swap TVs with him every year through 2016.

4. DETROIT PISTONS, 9-10

The Good News: Andre Drummond! Andre Drummond!!! ANDRE DRUMMOND! SWEET JESUS, ANDRE DRUMMOND!!!!!!!

More Good News: ANDRE DRUMMOND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Xhndndhgdhfdhjrtrhghvrh!!!!!!!!!!!! Pghrjpwlfkisjdmejfnjppplfejhfjrj!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Bad News: The concept of Drummond, Greg Monroe and Josh Smith starting together seemed cool until we watched Josh play the “3.” You know what happens when you put Josh 20 feet from the basket? He says to himself, “Hey, I’m open!” It’s like leaving your kids unattended around Halloween candy. There’s just no upside. And since they can’t trade Josh’s $54 million deal, and they’re definitely not trading Drummond … well …

Most Interesting Subplot: ESPN.com’s Trade Machine sent me an automated message three days ago: “You’re not allowed to run Greg Monroe’s name through here anymore. I’m starting to think you’re a psycho.” You know what makes every fake Monroe trade particularly juicy? With $17 million of expirings (who knew those ridiculous overpays of Charlie Villanueva and Rodney Stuckey would pay off someday????), Detroit makes practically any fake trade work. Let’s just move on before you think I’m weird. Too late? Dammit. Hold this thought.

SportVU Revelation: On Thursday morning, I clicked on Josh’s SportVU shot chart page with the same level of excitement that deviant 14-year-olds would have if some Internet thief posted stolen naked photos from Jennifer Lawrence’s cell phone. What did we learn? So far, Josh has made 13 of 46 “long 2s” and 24 of 89 3-pointers … which means he’s made 37 of 135 shots from more than 15 feet (about 27 percent). Keep in mind, ALL OF THESE SHOTS ARE WIDE OPEN BECAUSE NOTHING MAKES AN NBA OPPONENT HAPPIER THAN THE SIGHT OF JOSH SMITH SHOOTING FROM 15 FEET OR MORE. And you know what else? I can’t totally blame Josh here. He’s playing out of position and teams leave him open. It’s like a Jedi mind trick. That’s why “Greg Monroe and Charlie Villanueva’s expiring for Thaddeus Young and Lavoy Allen’s expiring” is my favorite fake trade right now. Drummond, Josh and Thaddeus? Now we’re talking!

Random Thought: As the self-proclaimed Body Language Doctor, I was obviously excited for a moody lefty with poor shot selection who occasionally clashes with his teammates (Smith) to join forces with a moody lefty with poor shot selection who occasionally clashes with his teammates (Brandon Jennings). But it’s been rockier than even the Body Language Doctor expected. Mo Cheeks has that “mom with three young kids who just had too much sugar” look on his face at all times. If you started a 12-man “Which Two Teammates Would Have To Be Separated In The Huddle” fantasy draft, and the entire first round were taken up by “Boogie Cousins vs. (fill in 12 consecutive teammates),” then the first pick of the second round would be either “Josh vs. Jennings” or “Kyrie vs. Dion.”

Worst-Case Scenario: You know what? I’m thinking only happy thoughts with Detroit right now. It hit the jackpot with Drummond. Repeat: THE JACKPOT.

Prognosis: Forty-four wins if they don’t flip Monroe; 47-49 wins if they flip Monroe for a quality perimeter guy. The good news: This probably saves Joe Dumars’s job. The bad news: This probably saves Joe Dumars’s job.

5. WASHINGTON PROFESSIONAL BASKETBALL TEAM, 9-9

The Good News: Let’s see … John Wall has resembled someone who deserved an $80 million extension at least six different nights already. Nene and Marcin Gortat are playing hard; we’ve even seen sweat beads form on Nene’s head. Their overpriced perimeter guys (Martell Webster and Trevor Ariza) have played like fairly priced perimeter guys. Bradley Beal looked good before going out with a fibula (h/t Al Michaels). Former lottery pick Jan Vesely reinvented himself as an energy defender off the bench, surging ahead of Nikoloz Tskitishvili and Jonny Flynn on the all-time Top-Six Lottery Pick rankings. Best of all, Washington PBT has a little swagger this season — they’re leading the league in shoving matches, near-brawls, F-bombs and stare-downs. I like the way these guys carry themselves. So what if I once wrote those last two sentences about the 2004-05 Pacers?

The Bad News: I don’t like the words “reaggravated” in any form, so Beal’s leg injury scared me. And Wall’s lavish contract extension frightens me to the point of sleeping with the lights on. Eighty million guaranteed off 21 good games?

Random Thought: Did you know Nene isn’t one of the top-50 rebounders right now? Or that Lance Stephenson and Evan Turner average more rebounds than him? One of the All-Star Weekend events should be a rebounding “competition” called “Brick House” with Nene, Brook Lopez, Andrea Bargnani and Chris Bosh — two at a time, head-to-head, as they have two minutes to grab as many missed 22-footers from Rudy Gay and DeMar DeRozan as possible.

SportVU Revelation: We’re cheating — I’m using a shot chart stat here. But advanced metrics hate any offense built around players unapologetically missing “long 2s,” a.k.a. Gay-DeRozan syndrome. Through Tuesday’s games, only two NBA teams placed two teammates in the top 10 for “most attempted long 2s” (anything between 15 and 19 feet): Toronto (Gay and DeRozan) and Washington (Beal and Wall). Beal had the lowest percentage of anyone in the top 50 (31.3 percent); Wall was second-lowest (33.3 percent). Jeez, even Gay (38.4 percent) and DeRozan (36.1 percent) are better than that — and they have a shooting syndrome named after them. Shoot 3s or go to the rim, young WPBTs. Trust the math. Avoid GDR syndrome. Here, check out this special Kirk Goldsberry chart if you don’t believe me.

Most Interesting Subplot: I hated the Washington PBT trading a top-12 protected lottery pick for Gortat for four reasons: (a) my two Washington friends (Grantland’s Andrew Sharp and my buddy House) justified the deal by saying, “Look, I don’t care about the future; we’ll just screw up the future anyway” (never a good sign); (b) the success rate of panic trades by GMs who will get fired unless the panic trade miraculously works out isn’t high (see: Bryan Colangelo, Rudy Gay); (c) either Gortat will ditch them for free agency or they’ll overpay to keep him, but either way, it’s going to work out horribly; and (d) they could absolutely win 44 games and save Ernie Grunfeld’s job (reminder: He’s the guy who got them into this mess). At the same time, it’s hard to tell the team that just whiffed on Jan Vesely and may have whiffed on Otto Porter, “You guys need to keep rebuilding through the draft!” So I get it. Just take a deep breath before you read the next paragraph.

Worst-Case Scenario: The Washington PBT finishes ninth in the East and gives Phoenix the no. 13 pick in the most loaded draft in 29 years, followed by them extending Grunfeld’s deal and overpaying Gortat. Would anything be more Washingtonish than that?

Prognosis: Something like 43 wins and a no. 5 seed. Since the Washington PBT has missed the playoffs in 20 of the last 25 seasons, would you like to halfheartedly sing along to an acoustic version of Kool & the Gang’s Celebrate with me? Let’s kinda sorta maybe do this!

6. CHICAGO BULLS, 8-9

The Good News: Yesterday, Derrick Rose vowed to come back 100 percent and even left the door open for a 2014 playoffs appearance. Hey, Bulls fans, did you hear that? Step away from the gas pipe. STEP AWAY.

The Bad News: Actual emails I received in the past three weeks …

Foster in Charlottesville, Virginia: “Is it more than a coincidence that Derrick Rose’s injury happened in Portland? Have the Trail Blazers finally removed their injury curse by placing it on Rose and the Bulls?”

Taylor in St. Louis: “If Derrick Rose turns out to be the second coming of Penny Hardaway after this injury, then I’m completely devastated.”

Dan in Overland Park: “I had a thought that, as a Chicago fan scares the crap out of me: Is Derrick Rose the next Bill Walton?”

Andy Hogan in New Haven: “Genuine question: is Chicago cursed? If so, would you call it ‘The Curse of Jerry Krause’ or ‘The Curse of Jay Williams?'”

Random Thought: OK, let’s say Rose doesn’t make it back this spring. It’s premature to wonder if 30 squandered months of Rose (including three postseasons) cracks the short list of all-time NBA injury tragedies. Remember, Bill Walton, Penny Hardaway, Greg Oden, Ralph Sampson, Elgin Baylor, Bernard King, Gus Johnson, Yao Ming … those guys either got wiped out or had their careers irrevocably altered. Rose might be fine next season, and we might be remembering this 2012-14 stretch as an exceptionally unfortunate career hiccup. But there’s no track record of a superstar missing that much time, then magically morphing back into himself again. Jordan disappeared the longest (20 months), only he wasn’t recovering from a major injury — just a gambling suspension. Er, a baseball sabbatical. But you saw how rusty Rose looked last month; now we might add another year of rust? Yikes. Even factoring in today’s medical advances, you hate betting on anything when the words “never been done before” are involved. The whole thing sucks. I hate it.

SportVU Revelation: Here’s everything you ever wanted to know about the 2013-14 Bulls season — Kirk Hinrich ranks 10th in the NBA right now for “time of possession.” He has the ball in his hands for 6.2 minutes per game. I emailed this stat to Grantland’s Robert Mays (a Bulls fan), who grimly responded, “By April, ‘The Most Depressing Stats About This Chicago Bulls Season’ should be an incredible list.”

Most Interesting Subplot: You mean, other than the simmering feud between Tom Thibodeau and Chicago’s front office that’s heading for Thibs bolting by “mutual agreement” after the season? The Bulls are 2014’s most fascinating fork-in-the-road team. They have Luol Deng’s expiring contract (he’s been terrific lately), the rights to Charlotte’s protected no. 1 pick (only top-10 protected this year, so they might get into the lottery for The Greatest Draft In 29 Years), their own no. 1 pick, and the rights to overseas stud Nikola Mirotic (who’s been drawing raves lately). And Rose might come back sooner than later. So what do you do?

Strategy A: Dangle Deng to cripple this year’s team (for lottery purposes) and/or shed Carlos Boozer’s deal (expiring next season). Something like “Deng and Boozer to Detroit for Greg Monroe and the Villanueva-Stuckey expirings,” “Deng and Boozer to Boston for Jeff Green and the Kris Humphries–Keith Bogans expirings,” or maybe even just “Deng to Denver for the still-healing Danilo Gallinari and Evan Fournier.”

Strategy B: Deal Deng for multiple players who could help right now — something like “Deng to Houston for Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin” or “Deng and Marquis Teague to Cleveland for Dion Waiters and Anderson Varejao.”

Strategy C: Tread water and hope Rose returns before the playoffs.

(My advice? Strategy C — especially with the way Deng is playing right now. Don’t panic-trade Deng, have faith in the overall putridity of the East, hope Rose comes back, and make sure you don’t fall lower than the no. 6 seed so you can avoid Miami or Indiana in Round 1. That’s the play.)

Worst-Case Scenario: We’ve already arrived. Losing two years of Rose???? At least? I want to yell at the Hoop Gods like I yell at my dog Rufus after he eats something off the counter. BAD HOOP GODS! BAD! YOU ARE BAD!!!!

Prognosis: Thibs ain’t coaching a lottery team. No way. He’ll stay up 27 hours a day to get them to 42-43 wins. And if Rose comes back sooner than later … I mean …

7. BOSTON CELTICS, 8-12

The Good News: Brad Stevens is an extraordinary coach. Repeat: extraordinary. This Celtics team is overmatched from a talent standpoint nearly every night, but they’re always better prepared, they’re always playing hard, and they’re always getting eight points per game off out-of-bounds plays just because their coach is wicked smaht. It’s like when Pitino took over the Celtics, only the exact opposite. I’m saving my extended thoughts for a future column here. Just know that I love Brad Stevens and would absolutely donate a kidney to him. Anyone who can turn Jordan Crawford into a competent point guard has to be a Coach of the Year candidate.

The Bad News: Brad Stevens is an extraordinary coach.

(In other words, so long, Jabari Parker. Farewell, Julius Randle. See you in the next life, Andrew Wiggins. G’day, Dante Exum. Bye-bye, Joel Embiid. Take care, Marcus Smart.)

Random Thought: I happened to be doing live TV when the Brooklyn trade happened. Instinctively, I hated it. I didn’t want three years and $30 million of Gerald Wallace. I wanted Garnett and Pierce to retire in Boston. I didn’t care about picking three more times at the end of the first round. I didn’t want to rebuild for the fourth time in my lifetime. I hated the trade.

And then … the details started trickling out. Three unprotected first-rounders in 2014, 2016 and 2018? The right to swap picks in 2017? Good lord! Even the biggest Pierce fan (and I’m up there) couldn’t hate this deal.

And now … it’s December and I’m starting to wonder if this is the greatest Celtics trade since Joe Barely Cares for McHale and Parish. (Yes, I know Atlanta has first dibs on this year’s Brooklyn pick — Boston would get Atlanta’s pick.) It’s like the Celtics shorted a stock two days before it crashed. If Pierce and Garnett weren’t involved, I’d be much more euphoric about this. Seeing them trapped on the Netstanic has been tough. When Bargnani got thrown out for trash-talking KG last night, part of me wanted KG to chase him into the tunnel, beat the living hell out of him, then punch a security guard to ensure that he’d get suspended for the entire season. Maybe there’s still time.

SportVU Revelation: Jordan Crawford ranks 17th in “total touches.” In the entire league. Only 16 players have touched a basketball more times than Jordan Crawford did. This would have been the strangest Crawford-related fact of the season if someone hadn’t made a YouTube video of great Crawford moments with Tupac’s “Picture Me Rollin'” as background music.

Most Interesting Subplot: Boston’s brain trust genuinely believe that Rondo has bought into the Stevens magic. They’ve also maintained — both internally and externally — that they wouldn’t deal Rondo without getting back a blue-chipper. But if you’re the 27-year-old Rondo, you’re coming off major knee surgery, you’re hitting free agency in 19 months, and you watched your team coldly trade your closest teammate (Kendrick Perkins), repeatedly try to trade one of the best shooters ever (Ray Allen), then deal one of the best Celtics ever (Paul Pierce) and one of the best power forwards ever (Kevin Garnett) last summer … I mean, wouldn’t you have your guard up?

Rondo makes only $12 million this year and $13 million next year — that’s chump change in today’s market. From what I’ve heard, he wants a max extension and wants to compete now (and not later). What if Rondo gave the Celtics the following ultimatum? “I want to go to a contender or I’m not playing this season … and also, I’m out of here in 2015.” Would they call his bluff and just say, “No, you’re under contract, we are NOT trading you”? Would it turn into a staring contest? Would they have to start shopping him? If he doesn’t start practicing soon, then something is up and he wants out. Clairvoyant Bill has a disturbingly bad feeling about this one. Can’t explain it. Speaking of Clairvoyant Bill …

Worst-Case Scenario: See above. Who the hell wants 45 cents on the dollar for the guy who nearly out-alpha-dogged LeBron and Wade in the 2012 playoffs? Thanks but no thanks.

Weirdest Omen That Didn’t Become an Omen Yet: A New York reader named Kevin writes, “So I was watching you preview the Celtics when my wife called me over to the kitchen to help set the table. I paused the video, and when I came back, it was paused at the exact moment when the Clairvoyant Bill graphic started disintegrating, making you look like Bizarro Bill. Seemed strangely appropriate for the Celtics’ season that you’re disintegrating, too. Here’s what it looked like.”

Prognosis: As soon as the Knicks and/or Nets get healthy and start making a run in the Shatlantic, I could see the Celtics shelving Rondo for the season, making a self-sabotage trade and careering toward the lottery. I could also see Stevens single-handedly foiling those plans by going Norm Dale circa 1952 on us, whether Rondo is part of it or not. In other words, I don’t know. I’m glad I’m here.

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