Uttar Pradesh.

demonetisation

Congress continues to struggle

NEW DELHI: On a day when Election Commission announced the poll schedule for five states, an India Today opinion poll projected clear majority for BJP inConducted from October and December last year in the politically crucial state, the survey shows Prime Minister Narendra Modi’smove as having a positive impact on BJP’s vote-share. Demonetisation was announced on November 8, halfway through the survey period. The survey shows the BJP’s vote share increasing from 31% in October (before note ban) to 33% in December. In terms of seats, it projects 206-216 seats for the saffron party in the 403-member UP assembly. In the 2012 assembly election, BJP commanded a 15% vote share andwon 47 seats.The ruling Samajwadi Party is likely to emerge as the second largest party with a vote share of 26%, according to the survey which puts its seat tally at 92-97. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party is neck-and-neck with SP in terms of vote share, and is projected to win 79-85 seats. This shows that despite repeated reminders of Mayawati asking Muslim voters to shun SP, it has had little impact as the community remains loyal to the SP even as party remains a divided house.in the state as party is projected to win barely 5-9 seats with only 6% vote share in the state. The other parties in the state — Rashtriya Lok Dal, Apna Dal, the Left and others -might win 7-11 seats.The February-March election will test the popularity of Modi’s decision to ban Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes in India's most populous state. However, chief minister Akhilesh Yadav emerges as a clear choice for the next chief minister with 33% of those surveyed wanting him to return to power.Among choice of CMs among the BJP faces, Rajnath Singh is the most preferred with 20% in his favour. However, Gorakhpur MP, Yogi Adityanath has been second preference with 18% preferring him as chief minister candidate.