It’s difficult for journalists too – once you’re in the bubble it can be difficult to gauge how much readers are engaged with a particular issue. Illustration: Reg Lynch Credit: But no matter how much they yearn for authenticity and connection with their electorates, politicians do have to visit the bubble (I am imagining it hovering over Parliament House like a giant shimmering forcefield). It pains me to say it, but some of them are very much creatures of the bubble, not least Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who has spent the large part of his adult life in politics. Sometimes pollies seem to forget the bubble is transparent – we can see what they’re doing in there.

That's if we care to look, which increasing numbers of Australians don’t. After almost six months of flying under the radar, last week Bill Shorten’s opposition emerged blinking into the light, with several testing pressures on it. There was talk (nonsense, said Labor MPs) of a split within the party over the Adani coal mine. Loading There was a scramble to get the lines right on the government’s decision to send medical transferees affected by the Labor/cross-bench “Medevac” bill to Christmas Island, instead of the mainland. After nearly a week of criticising the government for pre-emptively reopening the Christmas Island detention centre to accommodate expected new arrivals, Shorten told media it was “fine” for asylum seekers to be treated there. This shift was the best sign yet that the opposition is rattled on the boats issue.

In supporting the cross-bench Medevac bill, Labor knew it was opening up a line of attack for the government, which can easily characterise Labor as “weak” on boats, given the appalling history of what happened after Kevin Rudd ended the Pacific Solution. The Ipsos poll published on Monday in The Sydney Morning Herald and Age had the opposition’s two-party-preferred lead over the government at 51 to 49 per cent, a three-point drop since the last poll, which had Labor leading 54 to 46. Bill Shorten ... a challenging week. Credit:Paul Jeffers This shift in fortunes could only be down to two things. There was the boats issue, and the efficacy of the scare campaign the government is running on this “weakening” of border protection. Deep inside the bubble, there have been arguments over legal advice from the Solicitor-General, the constitutional implications of the Medevac bill, and the misrepresentation of Home Affairs advice leaked to The Australian, according to ASIO Director-General Duncan Lewis, who was furious over the leak.

Few ordinary voters would have taken notice of any of the legals, but the booming message telegraphed by Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton and the Prime Minister that you “can’t trust Labor to protect our borders” was loud and clear. It resonates outside the bubble. The second thing that might have affected the poll result is the slow burn of franking credits, which Labor has promised to end for retirees (except for pensioners) if elected. Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen made a serious blunder when he suggested that if people didn’t like the policy, they shouldn’t vote Labor, even though what he said is perfectly self-evident. This is essentially what has been factored into Labor’s policy – that the number of Labor and swinging voters affected by the franking credits policy, who will also decide their vote on this issue, and also live in marginal seats where their vote really matters, is small. Minister for Finance Mathias Cormann during a Senate estimates hearing on Tuesday. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

But that’s only if the issue of franking credits remains discrete, only of interest to those affected, and not part of the Coalition’s grander narrative that “you can’t trust Labor with the economy”. As further fodder for that narrative, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg points to the backdown Bowen made on Friday over mortgage brokers. Labor’s initial position was to support the banking royal commission’s recommendation that the borrower pay an up-front fee for mortgage-broking advice, but after a huge backlash from brokers, who said such a change would destroy their business model, Labor has backed down to a softened position of an upfront fee of 1.1 per cent of the loan on a property. During question time this week Labor was lured off its safe turf – of responses to the royal commission, and jibes over the ousting of Malcolm Turnbull – onto the enemy turf of boats and border protection. The opposition received a boon in the form of The Sydney Morning Herald/Age stories on the dealings of Finance Minister Mathias Cormann and former Treasurer Joe Hockey with a company run by a Liberal Party executive and donor. These stories were terrible for the government, although it tried to brush them off.

On Monday a new Newspoll comes out. It will confirm whether or not the Ipsos poll was a blip or the beginning of a swing. Everyone in the bubble will be keenly awaiting it, especially those who self-identify as being outside, or beyond, or above the bubble. Twitter: @JacquelineMaley Follow Jacqueline Maley on Facebook