by Aaron Schatz

Now that we're halfway through the season, the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings are working with a lot of data. Our ratings tend to look at more of the past than subjective power ratings and even sometimes other "advanced stats," because the research we've done has shown us that you get a more accurate picture looking at the whole season than just the last few weeks. There are a couple of important implications for this.

First, one game doesn't move the needle as much as you might think. This is particularly true at the top and bottom of the rankings where teams are spread a little bit further apart than they are in the 10-20 range. So Green Bay only moves up two spots this week to No. 3 after blowing out Chicago. Philadelphia moves up only one spot to No. 5 after routing Carolina.

Second, some teams will be ranked higher or lower than expected because they played very well or poorly early in the season. Even the weighted DVOA ratings at this point still count every game with at least 67 percent strength, even all the way back to Week 1. So, for example, I had a Twitter user suggest that our ratings are undervaluing the Patriots, who are still only eighth in total DVOA and ninth in weighted DVOA. The issue here is their performance early in the season, but more specifically, one game weighing them down: the Week 4 blowout by Kansas City. The single-game DVOA ratings for the Week 1 loss to Miami and the Week 3 narrow-escape win over Oakland are very close to zero, but that Kansas City game is at -72.7%. If the Patriots continue to play well in the next couple weeks, it will show that their performance over the past few weeks is a more accurate barometer of how good they are, and they'll move up. The way the weighted DVOA system works, the first big change in a game's strength occurs eight weeks after it is played, so unless the Pats have a big loss in the next couple weeks, they'll move up a bit after Week 12.

New Orleans is in a similar situation, except that it isn't just one game dragging the Saints down. The Saints have three games with a single-game DVOA under -30% in the first five weeks. But DVOA loves their big Week 8 win over Green Bay, and surprisingly, it also loves their narrow Week 7 loss to Detroit. As a result, there's a huge gap between the Saints' DVOA in Weeks 1-5 and their rating in Weeks 6-10. If you wanted to look at just the last few weeks, here are the teams with the biggest gap in DVOA between Weeks 1-5 and Weeks 6-10:

Biggest DVOA Rise, Weeks 6-10 vs. Weeks 1-5 Biggest DVOA Drop, Weeks 6-10 vs. Weeks 1-5 Team DVOA Wk 1-5 Rk DVOA Wk 6-10 Rk Change x Team DVOA Wk 1-5 Rk DVOA Wk 6-10 Rk Change NO -15.0% 25 36.6% 2 -51.7% x SEA 43.5% 2 -3.9% 18 47.4% JAC -52.6% 32 -4.6% 19 -47.9% x SD 14.1% 6 -29.7% 28 43.8% PHI 3.3% 16 41.5% 1 -38.2% x CIN 16.7% 5 -24.1% 27 40.9% MIA -1.7% 20 32.3% 3 -34.0% x NYG 8.6% 9 -30.0% 29 38.6% NYJ -31.2% 30 2.6% 15 -33.8% x ATL 11.9% 7 -22.2% 26 34.1%

You'll notice that the top three teams of Weeks 6-10 are on that table, and you may be wondering where the No. 1 overall Denver Broncos are. The Broncos are the No. 4 team of Weeks 6-10, dropping from 53.1% DVOA in Weeks 1-5 to 30.1% DVOA in Weeks 6-10.

Two interesting teams which are nowhere near either of these tables are the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. Both of those teams have been about the same over the last five weeks as they were over the first five weeks, although I should note that "how Kansas City was over the first five weeks" includes both their horrible Week 1 loss to Tennessee and that big blowout of New England in Week 4. Anyway, looking at the DVOA ratings you may notice that the Bills move up and the Chiefs move down even though Kansas City won on Sunday. (The Chiefs are ranked No. 10 same as last week, but their DVOA drops by two percentage points.) This was a classic example of a game where DVOA reflects that the "wrong team won." Of course, the wrong team didn't really win; the Bills were the ones who had bad timing, made bad decisions, and couldn't hold onto the ball. But when it comes to elements of the game that are predictive for future performance, Buffalo was superior on Sunday. The biggest issue, of course, was that Buffalo fumbled the ball three times and the Chiefs recovered each one. This game is dramatically different if Scott Chandler had been able to hold onto the bouncing ball after Bryce Brown fumbled while running towards the end zone. The DVOA system also gives the Bills credit for getting the ball down to the 15 on that final attempt at a game-winning drive, even though they couldn't get it into the end zone once they made it down there. Overall, the Bills gained 5.1 yards per play, and the Chiefs only 4.7 yards per play.

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Since this is the first week with opponent adjustments at full strength, I wanted to also point out which players and teams have suffered from or been gifted by particularly difficult schedules this season.

Quarterbacks: Carson Palmer was having a reasonable season before his ACL tear on Sunday, but honestly, it wasn't a great season. Palmer ranked 12th in unadjusted YAR but 19th in DYAR because of the Arizona schedule. Palmer had faced only one defense in the defensive DVOA top ten (Philadelphia) while Drew Stanton faced two of them in his three starts (Denver and San Francisco). With the AFC West and NFC East on the schedule, and the decline of the Rams defense, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick also get penalized in DYAR once we add opponent adjustments.

The two quarterbacks with the toughest schedules so far are two quarterbacks on opposite ends of the performance spectrum. Andrew Luck is an MVP candidate in part because he's done what he's done against a tough schedule; he ranks fourth in YAR but second in DYAR. In particular, the Colts have faced teams that are much better against the pass than the run, such as Cincinnati (No. 8 vs. pass, No. 32 vs. run) and Houston (No. 11 vs. pass, No. 27 vs. run). On the other hand, you have Derek Carr. At times he's looked good as a rookie, and at times he's looked totally lost. But one reason he sometimes looks totally lost is that the Raiders have played a tough schedule. Carr is 31st in YAR but 26th in YAR. Tom Brady and Philip Rivers also have a gap of over 100 between YAR and DYAR due to tough schedules. The Chargers have faced the toughest overall schedule of opposing defenses, when you combine passing and rushing. Their average defensive opponent has had -7.3%, making them the only team that has faced what is on average a top-ten defense.

Running Backs: Today's Quick Reads details how the Seahawks are threatening the all-time record for team rushing DVOA. One reason is that while they have played an easy schedule of opposing pass defenses, they've played a tough schedule of opposing run defenses. Marshawn Lynch has 231 rushing DYAR right now but only 197 rushing YAR. Andre Ellington and Frank Gore also get boosted in DYAR by opponent adjustments. So do both Giants running backs, Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams.

The biggest gap on the other side belongs to Justin Forsett, who is fifth with 136 rushing YAR before adjustments but drops to 12th with 91 DYAR after adjustments. And in case you are wondering, DeMarco Murray is getting pretty much no schedule benefit, with 278 YAR and 277 DYAR.

Wide Receivers: The biggest boosts in DYAR from opponent adjustments generally belong to the wide receivers of the AFC South, and the top four gaps between DYAR and YAR belong to Allen Robinson (who just broke his leg, ending his rookie season), Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, and T.Y. Hilton. The Baltimore receivers have also played a particualrly difficult schedule. Tampa Bay's Vincent Jackson has the biggest gap in the other direction by far, with -48 YAR before adjustments but -92 DYAR afterwards. That's a gap of -44; no other receiver has a gap over -30.

Tight Ends: There are a lot of tight ends who get small penalties in DYAR for playing easier schedules but nobody really gets a big penalty. However, there are three tight ends who have a gap of at least 20 between YAR and DYAR due to playing tough schedules. Jimmy Graham goes from fourth without opponent adjustments to first among tight ends after opponent adjustments. Jared Cook goes from 18th to 12th, and Delanie Walker from 17th to 15th.

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Defenses: Yes, the New York Jets secondary is basically a tire fire at this point, but the Jets defense hasn't been quite as bad as it has looked. The Jets have played the toughest schedule of offenses so far this year, with their average opponent having 5.1% DVOA. And that schedule has been dramatically slanted towards the passing game. The average Jets opponent has had 26.9% passing DVOA, but only -13.6% rushing DVOA. The only defense to face an easier schedule of opposition running games is Miami (-15.1%). Both the Jets and Dolphins have played the Patriots (No. 2 passing, No. 31 running), Chargers (No. 3 passing, No 28 running), and Packers (No. 5 passing, No. 12 running). Interestingly, there are a number of teams who have faced the opposite: lots of offenses tilted towards the run. Washington, Green Bay, Dallas, and St. Louis have faced four of the five easiest schedules of pass offenses (Atlanta is the other) but the four hardest schedules of run offenses. These teams have shared opponents such as Minnesota (No. 31 passing, No. 3 rushing even without Adrian Peterson) and Seattle (No. 22 passing but No. 1 rushing).

Returning to overall offensive DVOA of opponents, other teams to face particularly tough schedules this season include Jacksonville, Carolina, and Oakland. Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh have faced the easiest schedules of opposing offenses.

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Once again in 2014, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 15 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in DVOA and DYAR. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend. We will also tweet out images of these players from the @fboutsiders Twitter account on most Fridays. One player each week will only be available for 24 hours from the point these players enter packs on Friday.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 10 are:

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB (24-HOUR HERO): Led all Week 10 QB with 208 DYAR (18-for-27, 315 yards, 6 TD).

Led all Week 10 QB with 208 DYAR (18-for-27, 315 yards, 6 TD). LOLB Connor Barwin, PHI: 8 combined tackles, 3.5 sacks.

8 combined tackles, 3.5 sacks. SS James Ihedigbo, DET: 4 Defeats (2 TFL plus an interception and a pass defensed that both prevented third-down conversions).

4 Defeats (2 TFL plus an interception and a pass defensed that both prevented third-down conversions). P Brett Kern, TEN: Averaged 51.8 gross yards and 48.8 net yards per punt on eight punts.

Averaged 51.8 gross yards and 48.8 net yards per punt on eight punts. C Max Unger, SEA: Helped Seahawks RB gain 133 yards on 17 carries with 88 percent Success Rate on runs up the middle.

A quick apology to Kansas City Chiefs fans. We considered doing both Allen Bailey and Ron Parker this week. Bailey had eight combined tackles including three tackles for a loss on runs. Parker had three passes defensed on that final Buffalo series where the Bills tried to score from the Kansas City 15, and he also stripped the ball from Bryce Brown that resulted in a touchback. However, we wanted to make sure Detroit and Tennessee fans got a Football Outsiders player in MUT, as we had not done anyone from those teams yet. We'll make sure to get to Bailey or Parker next time one of them has a nice big stat line. (Doing Kern and Ihedigbo leaves Chicago and Carolina as the last teams without FO players in MUT, but they certainly aren't getting anything this week. Yuck.)

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All stats pages are now updated with Week 10 information -- or will be in the next few minutes -- including FO Premium, snap counts and playoff odds. This week also brought the return of our weekly playoff odds report for ESPN Insider. There's additional commentary over there on the current playoff race, including analysis of how the odds of getting a bye week will change for Indianapolis and New England depending on who wins the big Sunday night game. The playoff odds report for ESPN Insider also means that playoff odds will be updated earlier on Tuesdays here on Football Outsiders.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through ten weeks of 2014, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for strength of schedule and to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 DEN 37.3% 1 36.2% 1 7-2 23.4% 1 -17.7% 2 -3.8% 25 2 BAL 23.0% 2 23.7% 2 6-4 8.2% 12 -6.4% 9 8.4% 2 3 GB 21.3% 5 21.3% 3 6-3 20.6% 2 -0.7% 11 0.0% 15 4 SEA 20.7% 4 19.4% 5 6-3 13.1% 5 -9.9% 7 -2.3% 23 5 PHI 19.9% 6 21.0% 4 7-2 -1.2% 17 -10.6% 6 10.5% 1 6 MIA 15.5% 3 16.6% 6 5-4 4.1% 13 -16.0% 3 -4.6% 27 7 IND 13.0% 8 14.5% 7 6-3 11.0% 8 3.6% 18 5.6% 5 8 NE 13.0% 7 12.7% 9 7-2 10.5% 9 4.7% 22 7.1% 3 9 DET 10.6% 12 10.5% 10 7-2 -6.5% 22 -24.6% 1 -7.5% 32 10 KC 10.4% 10 13.5% 8 6-3 8.3% 11 1.4% 16 3.5% 8 11 PIT 8.6% 9 9.7% 11 6-4 17.3% 3 7.6% 25 -1.1% 19 12 NO 6.8% 11 8.8% 12 4-5 13.6% 4 8.3% 26 1.4% 12 13 BUF 6.3% 14 5.2% 14 5-4 -14.5% 27 -14.6% 4 6.2% 4 14 DAL 6.2% 15 6.7% 13 7-3 11.4% 6 3.8% 19 -1.4% 21 15 ARI 3.3% 16 2.8% 15 8-1 -10.2% 25 -13.2% 5 0.4% 13 16 SF 0.4% 20 -0.1% 16 5-4 -4.3% 20 -9.7% 8 -5.0% 28 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 CLE -0.2% 19 -1.0% 17 6-3 -1.0% 16 -0.7% 12 0.2% 14 18 SD -2.7% 17 -3.0% 18 5-4 11.3% 7 13.7% 31 -0.3% 16 19 ATL -3.7% 18 -4.5% 19 3-6 10.0% 10 17.5% 32 3.8% 7 20 CIN -4.1% 13 -7.4% 21 5-3-1 -4.1% 19 4.2% 21 4.3% 6 21 NYG -7.3% 23 -5.5% 20 3-6 -2.1% 18 4.0% 20 -1.3% 20 22 WAS -7.9% 22 -9.6% 22 3-6 -0.5% 15 3.1% 17 -4.3% 26 23 HOU -11.6% 25 -12.0% 23 4-5 -4.9% 21 0.9% 15 -5.7% 31 24 NYJ -12.3% 28 -12.3% 24 2-8 -15.0% 28 -0.4% 13 2.3% 9 25 MIN -14.8% 27 -14.1% 25 4-5 -17.4% 29 -0.8% 10 1.8% 11 26 CHI -15.4% 21 -18.6% 27 3-6 -0.3% 14 10.0% 30 -5.1% 29 27 TEN -17.1% 26 -19.0% 28 2-7 -8.0% 23 8.5% 27 -0.7% 17 28 STL -19.8% 30 -17.4% 26 3-6 -11.2% 26 7.5% 24 -1.1% 18 29 CAR -21.0% 24 -23.8% 30 3-6-1 -9.9% 24 9.5% 29 -1.7% 22 30 OAK -22.0% 29 -21.1% 29 0-9 -19.4% 30 4.7% 23 2.2% 10 31 JAC -26.2% 31 -24.3% 31 1-9 -22.1% 32 0.4% 14 -3.8% 24 32 TB -35.8% 32 -35.5% 32 1-8 -21.4% 31 9.2% 28 -5.3% 30

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).