The Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera recently published a three-page letter purportedly from Pope Francis to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. While the Holy See refused to confirm the letter’s authenticity, leading Vatican-watchers concluded that it was genuine.

The letter, dated February 7, is addressed to Excelentísimo señor Nicolás Maduro Moros (“His Excellency Nicolás Maduro Moros”). Observers were quick to note that the Pope did not address Maduro as president of Venezuela. This was certainly significant: while close allies such Russia, Cuba and China still back Maduro, more than 50 countries recognise his rival, Juan Guaidò, as interim leader. The Holy See formally recognises Maduro as president, but the papal letter suggests that the Holy See is hedging its bets.

In the letter, Pope Francis declined Maduro’s request for him to mediate between the government and the opposition. He recalled that the Holy See had tried to bring the two sides together back in 2016. “What had been agreed in the meetings was not followed by concrete action to carry out the accords,” the Pope pointed out.

Francis referred to a letter from the Vatican Secretary of State identifying four conditions for dialogue: the release of political prisoners; resolving the country’s constitutional crisis; lifting restrictions on foreign aid; and holding free elections. The Pope emphasised that he did not believe in “any kind of dialogue”, but only “the dialogue that takes places when all conflicting parties put the common good above any other interest and work for unity and peace”.

Assuming the letter is genuine, it is likely to have infuriated Maduro, who has skilfully exploited the Holy See’s goodwill in order to retain power. It seems that the Vatican has finally tired of that game and is calling Maduro’s bluff.

This is a positive development that will help to dispel the perception that the Holy See is at odds with the Venezuelan bishops. In 2017, Venezuelan churchmen travelled to Rome to underline that Maduro’s policies have created a terrible humanitarian crisis within the once relatively prosperous country. “Your voice is our voice,” the bishops told the Pope. Francis reportedly replied: “No, in your voice is the voice of the Pope.”

Yet the Vatican and the Venezuelan bishops have sometimes seemed at cross purposes. When Maduro swore himself in for a second term as president in January – wearing a yellow, blue and red sash and waving around a sword – the bishops condemned the move as “illegitimate”. But a papal representative attended the swearing-in ceremony. This did not, in fact, signal Rome’s support for Maduro. The Holy See has a long-standing policy of not severing diplomatic ties. As the vaticanista Andrea Gagliarducci has noted, Rome never broke off relations with Fidel Castro’s Cuba, even when the regime fiercely persecuted the Church. Nevertheless, the Vatican presence at the ceremony gave ammunition to those who regard the Holy See as unduly soft on Maduro.

Venezuela’s bishops, meanwhile, are continuing to increase pressure on the dictator to step aside. As troops prevented aid from entering the country last weekend, the bishops said: “The regime has an obligation to attend to the needs of the population, and therefore to facilitate the entrance and distribution of humanitarian aid, avoiding any type of repressive violence.” The regime did not, of course, avoid “repressive violence”. At least four people – one of them a 14-year-old boy – were killed and hundreds injured in clashes between civilians and soldiers on the border.

On his flight back from Panama in January, Pope Francis said he was terrified by the possibility of civil war in Venezuela. That is a reasonable concern and may explain why the Holy See has been willing to show good faith in Maduro long after he had exhausted his credit. But Venezuela already has the world’s highest murder rate. The violence and shortages of food and medicine have forced around three million people to leave the country. Maduro is currently blocking vital supplies from entering the country, claiming that they are unnecessary. Meanwhile, army officers and senior government officials are privately asking clergy to obtain food and medicine for their relatives from neighbouring Colombia.

This deplorable situation cannot continue indefinitely. Meanwhile, the Holy See should continue to distance itself from Maduro and offer wholehearted support to Venezuela’s courageous bishops.