An incumbent, or someone filling the place of one like Hillary Clinton, should be above 45.5% in polls if that incumbent is going to win. That Trump is so close to her, her shortfall of 4.5 percent from the critical fifty percent safe zone for incumbents, and an enthusiasm gap of historic levels in the favor of her opponent, indicates that her candidacy is waning and that she is headed for likely defeat. National - Clinton +1.5, Clinton 45.5, Trump 44.0 Battleground States - Clinton +1.4% Trump is running about the same in the battleground states, the more relevant polls, where he trails by 1.4%. Trump needs to gain 1.4% in those states or the poll error in Clinton's favor must be 1.4% to render the race a tossup. In Brexit, the average of polls had an error of 6%. It is notable that national and state polls are coming together now. This indicates, as has been apparent, that a number of national pollsters have been padding Hillary's leads. This isn't hyperbole. It has been obvious because of the difference between bellwether state and national polls.