The college football AP polls for Week 11 have been released and what has become a common theme of discounting the UCF Knights seems to still be the norm. UCF dropped in this week’s poll out of the top 10, two spots to number 11. While a playoff appearance now seems completely impossible, what would it take to see UCF slip in? Today we set out to examine that very question. First and foremost, here are the current AP rankings:

1. Alabama (9-0)

2. Clemson (9-0)

3. Notre Dame (9-0)

4. Michigan (8-1)

5. Georgia (8-1)

6. Oklahoma (8-1)

7. West Virginia (7-1)

8. Ohio State (8-1)

9. LSU (7-2)

10. Washington State (8-1)

11. UCF (8-0)

*These are not the official college football committee rankings since those do not release until tomorrow.

Keep Winning

The Knights have three remaining opponents, all of which come with varying levels of difficulty that they must defeat for any of this to matter. First up is a Navy team that doesn’t seem all that impressive when looking at their 2-7 record. That’s the great thing about sports though, isn’t it? Records are meaningless. While the Knights should easily defeat Navy, this is a team with two close losses to Memphis and Temple. Both of those schools gave the Knights a good scare.

Next up, fellow top 25 team Cincinnati comes to town in what will be a huge game for UCF. The Bearcats may be ranked with only one loss on the year but they have not been overpowering or overly impressive. Their loss came in overtime against Temple but their wins have come against a cast of outcasts.

Finally, UCF wraps up their regular season against South Florida. After a promising start to the season with big wins over Georgia Tech and Illinois, the bottom seems to have fallen out for the Bulls. They narrowly came out on top against Tulsa and Connecticut before being embarrassed by Houston and Tulane. Again, this should be another victory for the Knights.

Big Upsets and Collapses

Assuming UCF does run the table and go undefeated, what will need to happen elsewhere for their door to be opened? Well, buckle up because things are about to get crazy.

Starting at the top and working our way down, we start with Alabama. There is virtually no chance the Crimson Tide miss the playoffs. They face off with Mississippi State The Citadel, Auburn to wrap up the season before heading to the conference championship game. Bama would likely need at least two losses in those four games to even remotely feel pressure. Clemson is in a similar spot with many pundits stating their superiority over the rest of the field.

Notre Dame gives us the first real shot at a team capable of moving. The Fighting Irish host Florida State at home this week before traveling to New York to play Syracuse at Yankee Stadium in the Shamrock Series. They then finish the regular season in southern California with a road game against USC. Notre Dame could be beaten by any of these three with just a couple of lucky bounces going the wrong way. With no conference championship game, one loss would knock the Irish from the playoffs with two likely dropping them from the top 10.

Michigan has games against Rutgers and Indiana heading into the next two weeks before their biggest game since Notre Dame, a home meeting with Ohio State. UCF would need some magic to happen here with a classic “two birds and one stone” scenario.

The Wolverines would need to lose to Ohio State, sending the Buckeyes to the conference championship game to likely face Northwestern or Purdue. The Buckeyes would then need to fall, all but eliminating Michigan and Ohio State from the race.

Georgia is simple. They already have one loss with a matchup against Alabama incoming. Would a two-loss team this late in the year really place ahead of the Knights?

Moving right along to Oklahoma, the Sooners have a matchup with in-state rival Oklahoma State this week before finishing the season against Kansas and West Virginia. While State and Kansas don’t exactly strike fear in anyone’s heart, the matchup with West Virginia is one of intrigue. Both teams currently sit ahead of UCF with one loss apiece. This means that someone is taking at least one more loss.

All of this leaves us with two teams, LSU and Washington State. The Tigers finish their season against Arkansas, Rice and Texas A&M. Admittedly, the only real hope for a loss in any of these games is the Tigers just forgetting they play that day and not showing up.

The Washington State Cougars are far from a lock though with games against a tough Arizona team and Washington on the schedule. UCF needs the Cougars to drop at least one of these games, a task that seems likely.

A Miracle for UCF?

Okay so the UCF playoff path is clear then, right? They just need eight of the top 11 teams to lose a game or two at some point over the next four weeks. But assuming everything we just hypothesized actually happens, the committee may still leave out UCF. This season has seen teams like Ohio State be embarrassed by Purdue only to still place ahead of the Knights.

Unless an absolute miracle happens, it seems as though the Knights are destined for the Fiesta Bowl in Arizona where they will likely face LSU or some other 2017 Auburn-esque opponent.