If you’re looking for a way to gauge how the 3D printing market will evolve, look no further than the dawn of two other revolutionizing technologies – the desktop printing market and the VHS standard. And be prepared for a decidedly off-color story.

While many of us have fond memories of watching a favorite movie when it first came out on VHS, or admiring the first three-color party invitation we printed on a laser printer, the fact remains that innocent pursuits were not the sole reason either of these technologies took off. And we shouldn’t expect 3D printing to be any different.

The reality is that in both cases, the illegal, illicit, and otherwise unwholesome played a major role in the growth of both the VHS and desktop printing markets. While it’s clear that most applications of these technologies were G-rated, there were plenty that weren’t. And when it comes to 3D printing, that unwholesome and downright illegal activity called counterfeiting is likely to become one of the major reasons why 3D printing will be a major growth industry in the coming years.

To be sure, as with all technologies, from the Paleolithic stone ax to 20th century nuclear fission, there are applications for good that hopefully outweigh the not-so-good. And 3D printing will have its fair share: from the manufacture of prosthetics and spare parts to on-demand organs, foods, and your child’s next toy, the 3D printing revolution will by and large have a positive impact on society as a whole.

But the threat of a major surge in counterfeiting based on the availability of relatively cheap 3D printers, increasingly sophisticated printing materials, and a never-ending supply of CAD designs available on the Internet will fuel an enormous black market in counterfeit parts. And the potential impact of 3D printers for counterfeiting just keeps on growing: A recent report by Gartner Group speculates that intellectual property loss due to 3D printer counterfeiting could total $100 billion by 2018.

What is it about 3D printing that will make it, in the words of Scientific American, “the counterfeiter’s best friend”? Just like the desktop printing industry of the 1980s, it’s that perfect storm of three important factors: the availability of a breakthrough device at a consumer price, the availability of the raw materials needed to copy something valuable, and the right software for turning the new technology into a counterfeiter’s “best friend.”

1985 was the year the perfect storm hit the desktop publishing market. The first widely available laser printer, the HP Laserjet, hit the market priced at the high end of the consumer market at about $3,000. This printer could handle pretty much any kind of paper, and print rapidly and accurately. At the same time, Aldus Pagemaker, the first widely available desktop publishing package, also hit the market, similarly priced at the high-end of the consumer market at under $700. Hello, forged credentials, certificates, permits, bills of lading, and eventually, money. Voila, another friend of the counterfeiter was born.

The illicit side of the VHS market had a slightly different trajectory. In the mid-1970s, the Betamax video standard arrived, taking advantage of the ready availability of VCRs priced in the $1,200 range. In 1977, Sony’s Betamax was challenged by upstart JVC’s VHS standard, with a couple of twists. Twist number one was the VHS could record a full-length movie, while Betamax maxed out at an hour. Twist number two was that while Sony resisted licensing Betamax for use by the pornography industry, JVC had no such qualms. Within 10 years, VHS ruled the market, and the world of entertainment has never been the same.

2014 was the years 1977 or 1985 in the world of 3D printing. Hobbyist 3D printers started showing up priced at less than $600, though a printer capable of handling the demands of the counterfeiter was still priced in the $2,500 range. And while the printers weren’t exactly free, a wide range of freeware, too numerous to mention here, showed up to allow would-be makers and counterfeiters an incredible pallet of designs, drivers, and controllers.

It’s true that the materials needed to do the most sophisticated counterfeits are not as widely available as the market will eventually require, but a wide range of thermoplastics, advanced polymers, and other materials are now available to assist the counterfeiter. And it’s a given that, as the printers become more sophisticated, and the consumers become more demanding, that list will only grow over time.

Where does it all end? There’s little doubt that a cat-and-mouse game of counterfeiting and counter-measures will soon ensue. The insertion of easily-detectable nanomaterials into a legitimate copy could be used to distinguish it from a counterfeit, much like watermarks are used to detect fraudulently printed documents. Certain high-value raw materials that can be used for reproducing highly specialized, dangerous, or restricted objects could have their sales and distribution tightly regulated. Preventing counterfeiting also promises to be a growth market.

Even more important, many experts agree, will be the need for a revolution in how intellectual property protections, such as patent, copyright, and trademark are applied to the new world of 3D printing. IP protection has always lagged technological advances, and 3D printing isn’t any different: while it is clearly illegal to print a patented object, merely possessing the plans for printing that object does not violate patent law. So the onus will be on the patent-holder to prove that the object has been printed. But if the print run is in single digits, finding and proving that the counterfeited objects were illegally printed, and by whom, will be an enforcement nightmare.

The best we can do as a society is try to ensure that the benefits outweigh the problems, and in that regard, 3D printing is also following the trajectory of previous innovations. It’s certainly clear that as this new technology evolves, and the rate of counterfeiting grows with it, there will be innovations in the use of 3D printing that will advance the art of counterfeiting in ways that were never anticipated.

But it’s also clear, as it was for the VHS format and desktop publishing, that the push provided by counterfeiting, albeit one that also advances the causes of criminality and illegality, will have a positive effect on expanding the use, and most likely lowering the cost, of 3D printing, while increasing the availability of new materials and software. The trick will be to be able to distinguish between “good” 3D printing, and “bad” 3D printing, and ensure that the barriers to the latter don’t inhibit the former. We’ve done this with VHS, desktop publishing, and for better and worse, we’ll be able to do it for 3D printing as well. The more things change, the more they remain the same…

For further exploration of these and other 3D printing issues, I’ll be speaking at the IEEE Computer Society’s Rock Stars of 3D Printing conference on March 17 in San Jose, Calif.

Josh Greenbaum is Principal at Enterprise Applications Consulting.