4. How Will the New Rule Changes Affect the Game?

Division 1 NCAA men’s basketball changes each year more than any other sport in the nation. The NBA Draft, graduation, transfers, and coaching changes all shake up the college basketball landscape each year. This year, however, two significant rule changes will immediately affect how all 351 D-1 teams will play. On June 5th, the NCAA Rules Oversight Panel passed a motion that moved the three-point line back to the international distance of 22 feet, 1¾ inches. This new rule further extends the college 3-point line, which was formerly 20 feet, 9 inches from the basket. In 2018-’19, 38.7% of field goal attempts were 3-pointers, and the average D-1 conversion rate was 34.4%. Although it is a much smaller sample size, the 2019 NIT 3P% was 33%, and 3pA% was 38.1%, 1.4% and .7% lower than in-season averages, respectively. Overall, three-point attempts have increased every year since 2015, while 3P% has fluctuated between 33% and 35.5% since 1993. The NCAA last extended the three-point line in 2008-09, but three-pointers are taken 5% more often than in 2009. The addition of less than two feet does not seem like much, but it will certainly affect spacing and defensive tactics, Screens will occur higher up the court, and zone defenses will be less compact within the arc. Many teams have seen this new rule after playing in the NIT, and the rest of the teams will have this entire offseason and preseason to adjust, so drastic differences in made 3-pointers are not expected. However, it will be interesting to see if teams will continue to shoot threes as successfully and as often this season.

The NCAA also implemented a rule to reduce the shot clock duration after an offensive rebound from 30 seconds to 20 seconds. This is the first change regarding the shot clock since the Rules Oversight Panel shortened the shot clock from 35 seconds to 30 seconds prior to the 2016 season. Reducing the shot clock is an obvious attempt to speed up the game, and it follows the NBA’s 2018 rule change to reduce the shot clock after an offensive rebound to 14 seconds. This rule will be noticeable in the second half when a leading team is attempting to close out a game. They will be unable to hold the ball as long, which should allow trailing teams a higher chance of staging a late-game comeback. Both this rule and the extended three-point line will affect over/under totals and should be considered when handicapping or wagering on games. If the market does not quickly adjust in the early part of the season, there could be a possibility for some inefficient lines in the totals scene.