FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: U.S. Democratic presidential candidate and former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden speaks during a forum held by gun safety organizations the Giffords group and March For Our Lives in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S. October 2, 2019. REUTERS/Steve Marcus/File Photo/File Photo Reuters

A little over three months out from the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, former Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign appears to be in crisis mode in the first two early-voting states.

Biden’s polling numbers have significantly faltered in Iowa and New Hampshire, and he trails his progressive rivals in support and fundraising.

As of 2019’s third fundraising quarter, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Mayor Pete Buttigieg reported $25.7 million and $23 million in cash on hand, respectively, compared with just $8.9 million for Biden, allowing them to invest more in their ground games than the Biden campaign.

Biden’s collapse in Iowa and New Hampshire, two states where Warren and Sanders have consistently led in early polling, especially highlights the risk of Biden’s electability-based strategy.

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A little over three months out from the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, former Vice President Joe Biden’s Democratic presidential campaign appears to be verging on the edge of crisis in the first two early-voting states.

Biden entered the race as the presumptive frontrunner but has seen that perception crumble in recent months, as his polling numbers have significantly faltered in Iowa and New Hampshire and he trails his progressive rivals in support and fundraising.

Real Clear Politics‘ polling average shows Warren leading in all recent Iowa and New Hampshire Democratic primary surveys. A New York Times/Siena College poll of Iowa released Friday showed a close contest, with Biden in fourth place at 17% behind Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 22%, Sen. Bernie Sanders at 19%, and Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 18% with a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points.

In New Hampshire, a University of New Hampshire/CNN poll conducted October 21-27 with a margin of error of 4.1 points found Sanders at 21%, Warren at 18%, and Biden at 15% — a dramatic drop of 9 percentage points from the July UNH/CNN poll, where Biden was at 24% support.

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Biden’s support is basically entirely older voters.

Among people over 65, he is still the frontrunner.

He is supported by only 2 percent of voters under 45.https://t.co/x2sLhXfEmj

A new report in Bloomberg further revealed the weaknesses of Biden’s ground operation in Iowa, where he is able to invest fewer resources compared with his top rivals in those states. As of 2019’s third fundraising quarter, Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg reported $33.7 million, $25.7 million, and $23.4 million in cash on hand, respectively, compared with just $8.9 million for Biden.

Bloomberg found that aside from Biden’s money issues, his state director didn’t live in the state full-time, and Iowa Democrats said Biden himself had acknowledged his campaign’s ground game in the state had been lacking. Also, he’s losing the support of key allies and donors alike, including the support of a state senator who had endorsed him.

Recently, The New York Times reported that Buttigieg — one of the most impressive fundraisers of the 2020 Democratic primary — „has won over many former Obama-era ambassadors as a 37-year-old fresh face for the party.“

Bradley Tusk, a former campaign manager for Michael Bloomberg who recently hosted a fundraiser for Buttigieg, told The Times that in attendance were „a lot of those people you would have thought would be Biden people,“ adding that „the feeling in the room“ was „that Biden has already lost.“

For months, Biden and his campaign have argued that, among other reasons, Biden would make the best Democratic nominee because he is best-suited to defeat President Donald Trump in a general election.

Biden’s collapse in Iowa and New Hampshire, two states where Warren and Sanders have consistently led in early polls, especially highlights the risk of Biden’s electability-based strategy.

Biden’s messaging is working to solidify his lead among two groups who, in surveys, value beating Trump above all else: older voters and black voters, particularly those without a college degree. In the Economist’s poll tracker, Biden holds around 40% support among black voters and closer to 50% among non-college educated black voters.

And in The New York Times/Siena poll of Iowa, 85% of voters younger than age 30 said they wanted a nominee „a nominee promising fundamental change,“ a sharp contrast from the 70% of voters aged 65+ who preferred a nominee who would „seek to restore normalcy in Washington,“ as Biden is pledging to do.

If Biden’s main argument is that he is adept at winning elections, a third- or even fourth-place finish in Iowa, New Hampshire, or both could damage his standing before Super Tuesday, when more than a dozen states vote.

The 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton, did secure the nomination after winning Iowa by less than half a percentage point and losing the New Hampshire primary to Sanders; she also won huge victories in Southern states with big African American populations.

But unlike Biden, Clinton was competing in what was essentially just a two-way primary, and she had far more cash on hand and sustainable fundraising. Additionally, she won delegate-rich states, including California and New York, which are not guaranteed wins for Biden.

The pragmatism and emphasis on electability that older voters and black voters have expressed in surveys have been working in Biden’s favor up to this point but could severely backfire on him if he falters in the first two voting states.