Update: I wanted to respond to some of the good comments and questions that readers have posted since we published this newsletter. I’ve condensed the questions into a few of the most common themes:

What about Warren? As regular readers know, I have a lot of admiration for Warren and have written frequently about her. The country needs more politicians — passionate, principled and detail-oriented — like her. Over the past year, her campaign attracted an enormous amount of media attention (contrary to complaints from some of her supporters of a #WarrenBlackout).

Yet once voting began, it became clear that her support was weaker than I and many others expected. She has yet to finish in the top two of any contest, and she finished behind Buttigieg, who’s since dropped out, in all of them. Her support in those early states looks typical of her nationwide support.

If she remains your preferred candidate and you want to vote for her, then you should by all means do so. Just know the trade-off: You’re likely sitting out the ultimate decision between Sanders and Biden. Maybe you don’t have a strong preference between them, and you’re OK with that.

Isn’t it too early to winnow the field? Yes and no. It certainty should be too early. The current system — with the same four unrepresentative states going first and with voters forced to select only one candidate — is madness and should be replaced.

But it’s naïve to pretend that the current system doesn’t exist. The harsh reality is that if you choose to vote for somebody other than Biden or Sanders at this point, you are probably helping the one of those two whom you like less. If you’re torn between Bloomberg and Biden, for example, and you vote for Bloomberg, you’re helping Sanders.

So how can we fix this system? The most important change would be ranked-choice voting. In that case, people could signal their support for, say, Warren by listing her first while also choosing between Biden and Sanders as the second choice. Ranked-choice voting, which several states have adopted in some form, allows long shots to emerge without similar front-runners being hurt.

Early states will still have disproportionate influence, so the order should change in each election cycle. Two overwhelmingly white states should not go first, and more major metropolitan areas should get to vote sooner.

For more …

Jonathan Bernstein, Bloomberg Opinion: “As for Michael Bloomberg … it’s been true from the start and continues to be true that the most likely effect of his campaign is to split the mainstream liberal vote and make Sanders the nominee.”

Nate Cohn, The Times’s polling expert, sees Buttigieg’s exit as good news for Biden: “Many stronger Buttigieg states [like Maine, Colorado and Utah, all of which vote Tuesday] were also states where Biden was in jeopardy of not hitting 15 percent [and thus winning no delegates]. Even if his support breaks evenly, good for Biden — and it might not be even. Elsewhere, Buttigieg support is concentrated in affluent areas, where it’ll break Biden.”

Megan McArdle: “I might be too pessimistic about Biden’s chances. It all feels just too close to the emotional roller coaster we #NeverTrumpers rode back in 2016, when we spun elaborate fantasies about the field narrowing and a champion emerging to take down the Orange Menace.”

Jonathan Chait: “Biden was not my first, or second, or third choice. He is endlessly exasperating. But he has a quality many of the media elites have failed to see. His meandering delivery — marred with a stutter that seems to have returned in his old age after he mastered it as a young man — nonetheless manages to convey a sincerity and a decency.”

Perry Bacon Jr., FiveThirtyEight: Buttigieg “might genuinely think that Sanders would be a terrible nominee for the Democratic Party. But there is a potential upside for Buttigieg in making this decision too. At his age, Buttigieg has four decades to try to become president. In leaving the race now, he builds good will with Democratic Party officials broadly and Biden in particular.”

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