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Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Winning close regular-season games can punch your card to the playoffs, but it does not translate year to year. Great teams aren't overwhelmingly better at winning games decided by one score; they're overwhelmingly better at winning games decided by multiple scores.

This is an issue for the Pittsburgh Steelers, whose 8-2 record in games decided by seven points or fewer last season should serve as a red flag for a regression candidate.

Since 2006, 16 of 19 teams (84 percent) with five or more wins than losses in games decided by seven points or fewer had a worse record the next season. On the flip side, all 20 teams with five or more losses than wins over that same period improved their record the next season.

The regression candidates tend to lose 4.2 more games the season after they got "lucky" in close games. The progression candidates tend to win 4.5 more games the season after getting "unlucky" in close games. Both close wins and close losses should be treated much closer to ties, at least when trying to project forward.

The Steelers (8-2) and Carolina Panthers (7-1) will likely disappoint in 2018 if you're expecting their records to repeat. Pittsburgh, which has only made one of the last seven AFC Championship Games, is expected to improve based on the team's second-highest Super Bowl odds in the AFC.

That does not make sense.