

Plain Dealer

NFL Draft Special



Analyzing the odds of draft success in eight parts.



1. Overview: 13 picks for the Browns; can the team change its draft record? 2. Team-by-team: Patriots best and Browns worst in drafting All-Pros; a leaguewide look. 3. Round 1: Most All-Pros are found in first round, but not necessarily at the top. 4. By position: All-Pro wide receivers found higher in draft, on average, than other positions. 5. A wide receiver? Using a top pick on a wideout is not such a bad idea, history shows. 6. A quarterback? Bust factor for picking a QB early is high, but so can be the reward. 7. Other positions: A rundown of cornerbacks, tackles and running backs taken in Top 5. 8. Nos. 4, 22 and 37: A rundown of players chosen previously where the Browns are picking.

CLEVELAND, Ohio - In the NFL Draft, there is hope.

The Cleveland Browns have stockpiled picks according to the team's stated rebuilding plan, now in year three under President Mike Holmgren and General Manager Tom Heckert.

Entering Thursday's draft, the Browns have 13 picks -- more than any other team -- and five of the top 100 (Nos. 4, 22, 37, 67 and 100), where future All-Pros have historically been found. (St. Louis and New England also have five of the top 100.)

"We're sitting at [No. 4] right now," Heckert said during a post-season press conference in early January. "It's going to be tough to screw that one up."

Tough, but when playing the inexact and over-analyzed roulette wheel that is the NFL Draft, not impossible. As is the case at a roulette table, there are winners and losers.

In an attempt to grade success, The Plain Dealer matched draft lists with a decade of All-Pro teams. That's a high bar to set-- finding an All-Pro -- but what NFL general manager wouldn't be thrilled with that outcome?

The Browns' failure to consistently identify and develop All-Pros in the last 10 years is why the franchise has struggled. They've drafted just two future All-Pros, and one -- wide receiver Braylon Edwards -- is long gone. This, despite drafting high so often because of their poor won-loss record. The analysis found that teams which accumulated more early picks, such as the Patriots, also found more future stars.

No team has had more picks in any one draft since the expansion Browns returned in 1999. More swipes at the lottery certainly improve the odds of not screwing up, but the Browns are Exhibit A that the draft is more than a numbers game:

• The Browns also had five of the top 100 picks in 1999, 2000 and 2010.

• They had 13 picks in 2000, too, including No.1 overall.

They grabbed Penn State defensive end Courtney Brown with the top pick, took wide receiver Dennis Northcutt in second round and cornerback Lewis Sanders and tight end Aaron Shea in later rounds.

"You find someone better," former Browns President Carmen Policy said after making Brown the first pick in that draft, "and that man is Superman."

But injuries were his kryptonite. Brown never panned out and, beyond the other three, the Browns had nothing to show for all the picks they had. Oh, they also chose quarterback Spergon Wynn in the sixth round, 16 spots ahead of future Hall-of-Famer Tom Brady.

• The Browns had four of the top 67 picks in 2009, as well, choosing center Alex Mack (No. 21), wide receiver Brian Robiskie (36), wide receiver Mohamed Massaquoi (50) and defensive lineman David Veikune (52). Mack is an anchor on the offensive line, but Robiskie is history, Veikune plays in Canada and Massaquoi is facing a make-or-break season.

The Browns had a different set of draft "experts" spinning the wheel in 2000 and 2009, but the Holmgren-Heckert-led team can't afford a similar batting average.

Just how important is drafting well?

"I think it's paramount," said NFL.com's personnel guru Gil Brandt, who guided the Dallas Cowboys' drafts for nearly 30 years.

If building success in the NFL starts with the draft, it's clear why Browns fans have had so little to cheer about over the last decade.

Browns in top 37

The Browns have picked in the top 37 some 20 times since their return to the league in 1999.

Year Pick Player 2011 21 Phil Taylor 37 Jabaal Sheard 2010 7 Joe Haden 2009 21 Alex Mack 36 Brian Robiskie 2007 3 Joe Thomas 22 Brady Quinn 2006 13 Kamerion Wimbley 34 D'Qwell Jackson 2005 3 Braylon Edwards 34 Brodney Pool 2004 6 Kellen Winslow 2003 21 Jeff Faine 2002 16 William Green 2001 3 Gerard Warren 33 Quincy Morgan 2000 1 Courtney Brown 32 Dennis Northcutt 1999 1 Tim Couch 32 Kevin Johnson

Some 121 of the more than 2,500 players drafted in the last 10 years have developed into All-Pros -- a select honor voted on each year by the Associated Press. (The analysis excludes special-teams players because many are undrafted free agents.) Just two of those All-Pros were Browns -- Edwards and four-time All-Pro tackle Joe Thomas. A third, special-teamer Josh Cribbs, was an undrafted free agent.

Poor personnel judgment is partly to blame for the Browns' draft-day mishaps over the last 10 years. But in a system that rewards the best draft positions to teams with the worst records, they've also failed to accumulate top 100 picks -- or hang on to those prime positions -- despite the team's poor record.

If the Browns trade down from No. 4 Thursday, it will be the third time in four years they've dealt a high draft slot for a lower one plus extra picks. The number of high draft choices that have failed miserably in Cleveland and elsewhere -- and the GMs who chose them -- could fill the Dawg Pound.

"There's always some mistakes made," said Brandt, comparing his experience in drafting running backs Calvin Hill (first round, 1969) and Bill Thomas (first round, 1972). Pre-draft evaluations suggested both players had similar promise. But Hill busted his back to improve, he said, while Thomas's definition of working out was playing tennis three times a week.

Hill wound up rushing for more than 6,000 yards and 2,800 yards receiving in 156 games for the Cowboys. Thomas ran for 36 yards in a career that lasted just 27 games with three teams.

"Some guys just rise to the occasion," Brandt said.

But when done right, the draft's top 100 has proven to be fertile territory. Three-fourths of the eventual All-Pros drafted in the last 10 years were top 100 picks. The Browns, despite compiling one of the worst records in football, have had only 29 top 100 picks throughout the decade -- mainly because of trades. Only six teams have had fewer.

Meanwhile, New England, despite consistent success on the field, accumulated the second-most top 100 picks (36), again through trades. And the Patriots have found more All-Pros than any other team.

The odds of finding an All-Pro improve dramatically when a team has a top-five pick. However, the Browns, despite all the losing, have drafted in the top five just twice, hitting on All-Pros Edwards and Thomas. They traded the No. 5 pick in 2009, dealt their first-round slot (No. 22) in 2008 and traded down from No. 6 last year.

After a 4-12 season, the Browns find themselves sitting in the top five again. Holmgren and Heckert are on the clock.