0’: Kickoff!

Denmark in white, Croatia in black. We got a hot one in Nizhny Novgorod tonight. It’s over 80 even this deep into the Russian evening.

Croatia Rested and Ready

Croatia had already qualified for this round when it played its third group game against Iceland, so it rested more than half its starters. They’re all back today, which should be frightening even for Denmark’s tight defense.

Croatia Not as Lovable as Other Teams

Croatia does not fit the “lovable underdog” tag of teams like Iceland, in part because it plays a little dirty. Croatia has eight yellow cards, the most of any team left in the tournament. It has 55 fouls: That ranks second, but only just behind France, which has played one more game.

From Underdog to Contender

Nobody’s talking about Croatia as a plucky underdog anymore; it is now considered a serious contender to win the World Cup. Aside from Uruguay’s two early wins, no small country has ever lifted the trophy. But Croatia looks like the real deal so far, with a crack defense, organization and several attacking weapons. Right now it is the fourth favorite at 6-1 to win the Cup, after Brazil, France and England, And its odds will shorten with a win today.

Spain’s Elimination May Clear Path for Winner

The result of today’s first game makes this game all the more important. Instead of facing mighty Spain, the winner will get Russia, a team that has ridden home field advantage and more than a few lucky breaks. Surely the winner here will fancy a trip to the semifinals: It would be Denmark’s first ever and Croatia’s second, after 1998.

Two Good Defenses, One Good Offense

Denmark and Croatia both have strong defenses; they have so far surrendered only one goal each. But Croatia’s offense is much more prolific, with seven goals to two for Denmark. Croatia has taken 39 shots; Denmark has taken 25, ahead only of Panama and Iran.