All four NFC West teams are currently tied at 1-1, San Francisco is the only team without a blemish on their conference record, which makes this Sunday’s game between the Seahawks and the 49ers more meaningful than most week three matchups. There is still plenty of football season left regardless of the outcome, but with an ineffective offense and some key players nursing injuries, any early distance Seattle can put between themselves and their rivals could pay dividends later on as their schedule only gets tougher.

What’s At Stake For Seattle

It is only week three, but if they drop this game, the Seahawks will have a losing record overall, an 0-2 conference record, and be staring down an 0-2 hole in the division, making earning a playoff berth that much more difficult.

Team confidence may become a concern especially on offense, as Seattle currently ranks 26th with 329 yards per game. QB Russell Wilson is averaging 256 yards per game, but has attempted 78 passes in two games, nearly 10 more passes per game than what he averaged per game last year. The extra attempts are not leading to points, as Wilson has committed two turnovers and has just one score after averaging two scores and less than one turnover per game last season.

While the offense is struggling to find a rhythm, the defense is keeping games close even if it doesn’t always look pretty, allowing just 248.5 yards and just 9.5 points per game, both first in the league. Both of those rankings should be taken with a grain of salt, as Seattle has yet to face a top offense, facing 25th ranked Miami in week one, and 32nd ranked LA last week. Next up is 27th ranked San Francisco, who valiantly hung with Carolina for a while before being soundly beaten 46-27. The 49ers will be the second straight top-15 defense Seattle will face, after losing to the 10th ranked Rams last week.

The 49ers may not appear to provide much of an offensive threat and are certainly thin on playmakers, but they are averaging 27.5 points per game, which should not be overlooked. Keep in mind that the general consensus after week one was that LA would be a “gimme” win for Seattle after being shutout 28-0 by the 49ers, but the Rams came out absolutely fired up in week two and consistently made life difficult for the Seahawks in a 9-3 victory. Seattle didn’t overlook the Rams, and even though they lost, they should employ a similar gameplan against a rival who knows them well.

As banged up as they are, Seattle simply cannot afford to drop two straight games in such a heavily contested division.

Keys to victory

On offense, this team simply has to find a consistent rhythm on the ground and protect their QB when he drops back to pass. If Wilson is forced to throw nearly 40 passes a game, he may not last to midseason. Even if Thomas Rawls is healthy enough to play, it’s unlikely that Pete Carroll will start him, which means Christine Michael has to provide a spark on the ground. With below-average blocking, both backs have been ineffective after a lot of offseason hype.

Wilson is still recovering from a sprained ankle suffered in week one that left him nearly immobilized in week 2, and may not be much more mobile on Sunday. Regardless of Wilson’s health, the offensive line will need to open some running lanes occasionally and protect Wilson. While that’s not exactly asking for a miracle, it would be a vast improvement over the protection Wilson has seen lately and a big change from the brick walls Michael and Rawls have been forced to try to plow through.

Even if Wilson receives quality protection, star wideout Doug Baldwin suffered leg and back injuries last week and may not be at 100%. No one can question Baldwin’s toughness, as he took two huge hits last week that would send most mortals to the locker room for good, but Baldwin stayed in the game and played through both injuries. He’s the team’s emotional leader, and his toughness will hopefully inspire the rest of the team to their first complete win, but it would be a major loss if he were to be injured further, as the offense currently lacks any true playmakers beyond him and Wilson as they wait for Rawls and Jimmy Graham to get back to 100%. Baldwin’s diverse skillset opens the field for Tyler Lockett, Jermaine Kearse, and Paul Richardson, but Baldwin is the only receiver capable of keeping the defense honest, so the 49ers could stack the box and force Wilson and his other receivers to beat man coverage outside if Baldwin gets banged up even more.

Both teams have struggled to move the ball at all, but the ground game has been the largest concern for both sides. Seattle RBs Rawls and Michael have combined for 3.1 yards per carry and zero touchdowns, while 49ers RBs Carlos Hyde and Shaun Draughn have combined for 2.6 yards per carry and 3 touchdowns. Michael has been the most effective back of the bunch with 5 yards per carry through two games, with a long run of just 16 yards on 25 carries, illustrating his limited big-play ceiling. Rawls has simply looked awful with just 25 yards on 19 carries, his longest gain for 8 yards. None of these players have looked impressive, and it would be a big surprise if any of them have a big day on Sunday. 49ers QB Blaine Gabbert has nearly identical stats to Wilson’s so far this season, which is to say that neither player has been particularly impressive in 2016, and the only place for either player to go is up.

Prediction

The expectations are low but this is a matchup Seattle can and should win. With the sputtering offenses forcing a push, the defenses will most likely decide this game, and Seattle simply has more playmakers with a better pedigree on that side of the ball. It will be one of the uglier two-game stretches the Seahawks have played in recent memory, but they should win their second straight home game while potentially taking the division lead, but at the very least keeping pace in the currently crowded NFC West.

I expect to see a 17-14 Seattle victory when the final whistle blows on Sunday, but if this turns into a loss (no matter the score), this would be an early season nightmare and a big hole for Seattle to dig their way out of. While their current situation provides a certain level of hope (assuming everyone eventually gets healthy), a loss along with any further injuries to key players, they could find themselves in a harsh reality resembling something only the Cleveland Browns can relate to, which is the most frightening scenario of all.