GL

We were just saying how Venezuela is divided between these two camps, but the world is also divided in many respects. Clearly in Latin America the right-wing camp is ascendant. But even then the Lima Group did not manage to pass its motion in the Organisation of American States (OAS) meeting, which sought formal recognition of Guaidó’s presidency. There weren’t enough votes for it even with the regional shift. Then you’ve got the geopolitical realities too, with Russia and China backing the Maduro government even if the West is backing Guaidó.

When are negotiations important? Exactly when you have these impasses, with a degree of balance of power which offers no way forward. The two sides are too entrenched in their positions, neither appear for the time being to be powerful enough to triumph over the other. These are the moments when you need negotiations.

In that context, the proposal by the Mexican and Uruguayan governments is welcome. Uruguay has not been pro-Maduro, it has been very critical in recent years. Mexico is a much more recent government. But, even though AMLO put an end to Mexico’s membership in the Lima Group and has refrained from attacking the Venezuelan government, he did not attend Maduro’s inauguration, nor did he send senior representatives. I think these two states are well-placed to mediate in the crisis.

There has been a long history of negotiations between the Venezuelan government and the opposition. Their failure to produce a settlement has been used by those who are pushing for escalation of tensions. But in fact, the negotiations have done some good, preventing further violence at key junctures. That in itself is an achievement. The first of these was the UNASUR (Union of South American Nations) mediation, which was headed by Colombia, Ecuador, and Brazil in 2014–15.

Then the second was the so-called “former presidents” initiative. This included the former president of Spain, Zapatero; the former president of Panama, Martín Torrijos; the former president of the Dominican Republic, Leonel Fernández; and then later on the former president of Colombia, Ernesto Samper, who was secretary general of UNASUR [Union of South American Nations] at the time. For a while, both sides were sitting at the same table. Some of the immediate issues were resolved, even if the more long-term issues clearly weren’t.

The last round of talks that took place centered on last year’s election and involved former Spanish president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. I was not part of the talks, so I can only go by what Zapatero said. His statement made clear that there was an agreement, until the last day, for a process of what he called “normalized operation and development of democratic politics.” But the opposition then pulled out of this deal, a move which he criticized. This is an argument used now by the Maduro government, but which is totally absent from the narrative in the Western media.

So we have some evidence that dialogue can work. There has also been a big development in these terms in recent months. The Venezuelan opposition has been deeply divided ever since Chávez came to power and has never really found a figurehead. There have been key leaders, including Henrique Capriles, Leopoldo López, and others, but the opposition has largely been divided.

This seems to have changed, with very broad support for the Juan Guaidó position across the opposition. Whether that is because of him personally, or because of the mandate of the National Assembly, or the international factors that have arisen, is difficult to know. But now, for the first time, the Venezuelan opposition is showing signs that it may be able to be in a position to negotiate together. That is a positive development from the perspective of negotiations. In the past, large sections of the opposition denounced the talks as partial or insufficient. Now, they would find that more difficult.