Published on October 14 2014 • Read later

By Dan Speerin

Here is a Three Part Look at Toronto’s Election Polling and the rise of the John Tory Progressive.

You must vote for who? To make sure who doesn’t win? An interesting narrative has popped up in my conversations of late. Progressives must vote for Tory I’m told, to keep the Ford’s out of office.



“BUT POLLS, DAN, POLLS”



Yes, the boogeyman known as “Ford Nation” is so scary, progressives must now turn inside out and vote for Ontario’s Mitt Romney. Let’s be clear, I’m not making the case for a Chow “Do You Believe in Miracles” moment. But I will show you that whether you vote for her or not - it can’t make Doug Ford mayor. It’s time to hold the “Progressives for John Tory” case up to some much needed scrutiny. While we’re at it, let’s take a better look at the polling they’re using to make this decision.

Part One: The Problems With Polling

“Pay attention if you want to but, frankly, they don’t really mean anything" -

Andre Turcotte, a pollster and communications professor at Carleton University on polls.



“The way it’s working now is a real dog’s breakfast. It’s not working,”

- Frank Graves Ekos Research



“The dirty little secret of the polling business … is that our ability to yield results accurately from samples that reflect the total population has probably never been worse in the 30 to 35 years that the discipline has been active in Canada,”

- Allan Gregg, Harris-Decima



Before we start our journey, I want to congratulate Danielle Smith in Alberta, Adrian Dix in BC, Tim Hudak and almost every person running in the Quebec elections on becoming Premier. And of course best wishes to our neighbour to the south and President Romney… Is what I would say, if polls were actually accurate.

The basis of this new found voting block - “The Tory Progressive” is based on this process.

Step 1: Look at Top Two Names In Poll

Step 2: Assume Something and Panic

Tory’s campaign team many of whom ran Ford’s last time around, probably realized in the summer, their voting base has a few too many “Ugh, I guess John Tory” voters. The solution will be laughed about for years to come. Come election day, they’ll enjoy the fruits of the “John Tory Progressives”. Give us anything but four more years of Rob and Doug running their junk into fire hydrants.

If you asked any progressive voter “Would you like John Tory as Mayor?” they would scream no, but then you enter the Ford boogeyman and they turn themselves inside out. This narrative has happened no doubt because of Olivia Chow’s failure to attack Tory effectively for the past few months - but it mainly boils down to Doug Ford’s polling numbers. When Tory started out near the top of the polls back in June, he stayed there and now an important chunk of his support comes from downtowners who fear if they don’t vote Tory - they may just Nader themselves into another “Ford More Years”. Except there are some Ford sized holes in that logic. Somebody could win from a vote split, but that person was never Doug.

Polls can feel like science, they make you feel like you’re making an informed decision - you may feel like Bill Nye, but really you’re the guy who says “Hey it’s freezing in December, pfft so much for that Global Warming” if you don’t read them more closely.





When speaking to Tory Progressives - you often see this as their thesis -

Which is odd, because that just shows you a win for John Tory. The recent high for Doug Ford is 37% percent - the lowest Tory’s numbers have dipped was 39%. I can also show you within these results why Doug’s numbers are most likely inflated - and why John Tory’s base showing up is a better bet. In Part Two, I’ll show you that Tory losing support doesn’t mean Doug can win. But all of that doesn’t matter to most - all that matters is that poll has Doug Ford second. This is where panic begins to take hold.

Hipster Polling

The story goes that when pollsters had issues with their ability to correctly predict elections - because of that damn internet thing, things got a bit shakey. Which is why a couple of elections back the news junkies turned to the fine taste of hipster polling. This comes from folks who follow all of the polling and come to a conclusion based on averages. It’s the Nate Silver-ization of democracy. These folks have been a bit more accurate than a single pollster but even these blogs are only as good as the polling they’re averaging. ThreeHundredEight who try and look at the larger picture can also miss the mark. But it’s more than that, this paragraph from their website about Ontario results from the spring, show us an important point rarely made about polling.

“But the riding model itself did extraordinarily well. It only missed the call in 10 ridings, for an accuracy rating of 91%.”

We would all agree, that in this meta-find that 91% is an amazing prediction percentage for a model. And hey, it only missed on 10 ridings - except wait, 10 ridings is a lot of citizens - A LOT. 10 ridings is important and the issues within those ten ridings are important to a lot of people. Which is why our election coverage becoming a festival of polling is getting out of hand. Also keep in mind, “Oops 10 ridings” is when things go as well as they possibly can. When pollsters don’t get it right - it goes like this

To be fair pollsters aren’t claiming you should base your vote on their predictions. But our media frames the horse race on their figures. And pollsters know this. For the bigger firms it means a lot of promotion for their other services. For the hipster pollsters, they know it’s about narrative too - otherwise it would only be the stats geek set looking at their websites. In the internet age, we all need to pay bills by clicks and Kickstarter, so you need to get your name out there and if you do, you can increase advertising dollars. Which brings us back to that Ontario election. Because well before the last results, the combination of these factors gave us stories like this courtesy of 308.

I like Eric’s website, I think he’s a great reporter and good for him for making his site a success. But for me, what he does is over-valued during an election cycle. And more importantly what he does is more often than not, misrepresented by our press and misread by the public. As citizens we only witness elections like horse races built on polling data. So sadly, most folks only look at the headlines. Except the horse race results are a purely a snapshot of the given day - then life happens - a candidate makes a gaffe, or it rains on election day. Besides all of that, it always comes down to who has the best machine to actually get voters out. Which is why we don’t have a Wild Rose party running Alberta. Polls can’t predict everything and pollsters will agree, that they really shouldn’t be your guide to how you vote.



Back in Toronto, the truth is the average “undecided” doesn’t start paying attention until now. Two weeks out is lots of time in politics, which make polls even more problematic. Even right before election day, there are issues with polling. Take American politics for example with their million dollar polling firms. A quick look at this column breaking down the 2012 election shows us that Gallup’s final poll predicted Mitt Romney with a one point lead (a 5 point error) was just the beginning.

The average of polls done in the final week, excluding Gallup and Rasmussen, had Obama’s lead over Romney more than 2pt too low. I might be willing to look the other way, except the polling average in 2000 had George W Bush winning and had a margin error of again more than 2pt. The error in margin in 1996 was off by 3pt. The 1980 average saw an error of more than 5pt…Worse than the error in the final polls was how the national polls took the consumer for a ride in October 2012 before finally settling in the final week. Anyone remember when Pew Research published a poll after the first debate in 2012 that had Mitt Romney up by 4pt among likely voters? I don’t mean to single out Pew, but because of Pew’s sterling reputation, this poll got an outsized amount of attention even as most of us suspected that it probably didn’t reflect the truth. Other pollsters, too, showed a bounce for Romney that propelled him into the lead after the first debate, though not all to the same extent.

Of course there is always some pollster out there willing to show you skewed numbers. Ties are obviously much better for our press. Races and swinging narratives sell papers and increase clicks - especially when it’s Ford related. But many times, they may as well be posting a Go Daddy Poll from Dan’s Politics-palooza blog. Here’s a suspect forum poll being reported by the Toronto Star.

Usually if one poll is completely different than the rest like Forum’s, it could be a red flag. But every once in awhile the outlier is actually the correct poll. It’s a fun little carnival game that works in our “click or die” media landscape. Print all polls, no matter how fluctuating they are - complete with headlines that seem like fact. We have no way of saying who is wrong. Then the next day at best, we get an article about the wildly fluctuating polls. Of course the day after that, they’ll go back to printing the widely fluctuating polls. Even worse, no matter how bad a firm does last election - their results will no doubt appear next election.

The problem with voting by polling is nobody knows who is wrong until election day. Technically everyone is right, until it’s too late. It’s an awful gamble for democracy - because you’re never sure what election you’re voting in. Did they get it right? Or did they get it wrong? It’s almost as if you should vote for who you want to.

Part 2: The Toronto Race: What else do the polls say?

Not buying part one? You think not using polling as a voter is unsophisticated, that you need to make crticial choices as a mature voter? Okay, now let me convince you that within those same polling results - the Tory Progressive is still doing it wrong.

But DOUG IS SECOND!!!

To sum this up simply - folks are reading too much into the top of a poll and not enough into the polls themselves. Is Doug`s base enough to put him in second at this moment? Sure. But that`s all that says - people look at the polls and our minds say - the top two = race. The media frames it that way because a “race” is better for business. So folks see two names then make the mental leap to HE COULD WIN - but it`s not always the case. The logic of fear is this - If Tory drops, Doug grows - or if Olivia rises, Tory drops and Doug wins. But growth and ceiling are key - can you grow beyond your base - and do the numbers suggest you have a ceiling? More importantly, can you actually turn those percentages into real live voters on election day. In Doug’s case, the answers have always shown - he can’t be the next mayor of Toronto. And though it’s unusual - the growth game says Olivia could leap Ford’s final numbers and still come second - it’s a hard climb, but it’s still more likely than Doug as mayor.

First we’ll take the only poll that has shown that Doug could close the gap. This is the October 6th Forum poll showing only a two point difference between Ford and Tory. It may surprise you to learn, that Ford Nation according to the polls is strongest under 35. According to this specific Forum poll, Ford Nation is super popular with Millennials.

According to them 18-34 year olds are with Doug in A BIG WAY. 49% of us in fact. Tory falls to third in this regard with only 24%. Meaning Doug’s HUGE gains in this poll owe some to the Facebook generation.

For the sake of the argument, let’s just assume they’re right and not question their numbers. Tory’s base on the other hand according to the same poll (and most polls) - is strongest over the age of 55. And since conventional wisdom tells us, that demographics skew boomer and Millennials are shakey at best on election day - we can safely assume that Ford’s numbers are inflated at least a little and are probably going to drop on election day. Whereas Tory’s 65 and up crowd most likely makes it out. And even then, that’s just part of how Doug gets CLOSE to Tory. So, Doug is probably in some trouble with the Obama strategy. Do you have faith in Millennials for Ford?

So let’s say that Forum poll is a bit wacky, it was judged by many to be an outlier. Well, let’s dig deeper to the more important polling find. The last IPSOS-Reid poll in late September took a look at possible voter turnout - and here’s where things get interesting.

Ipsos Reid employed a second data weighting scheme that more closely reflects the likely turnout demographic profile of the voting population on Election Day and actually found Tory’s support grew to 51%, while Ford (25%) and Chow’s (24%) remained stagnant.

Wait, what? You didn’t read about that? Yep, it’s in there, but not widely reported. When we use those same polls Tory Progressives are using to tell folks they could be handing the keys over to Doug, if they vote for Olivia - well they show us that Doug and Olivia may end up with the same percentage.

The October 6th Mainstreet Technologies poll - show a similiar pattern under the certain category. Also of note is the unlikely category where Doug “leads” with 25%. Certain and Unlikely tell the tale - and are the turnout out numbers. The other options are hard to define a turnout on. This might be a bit less black and white with another candidate. But Doug Ford isn’t a moderate candidate - you usually have strong feelings one way or the other - meaning it’s less likely that undecided voters drift to him in large enough numbers to close his current gap. His Brother’s polling in 2010 held steady from this point out and stayed steady on election night. Some John Tory Progressives state “People said Rob couldn’t win last time too”. Nobody actually said that - at this point in the campaign I actually asked his closest rival, how the hell he was losing to him.

Poll after poll shows Doug ceiling is just not enough to take John Tory - or even Olivia, if Chow launches herself into miracle mode. If Chow manages to take back the 2003 Miller path to victory - she could win. It’s not likely, but it’s a path. Remember despite how much we talk about the trainwreck of the Ford’s, we forget our fellow Torontonians may actually remember this on election day. When merely asked who has their support - the downtown vs. suburban divide probably plays out in a pro-Ford response. Team sports as politics is one thing, it resulting in actual results is another.

If you just choked, eye rolled and laughed at the Olivia Hail Mary theory - I understand why. But it’s the IPSOS- Reid Poll that really shows us the importance of the “Tory Progressive” in the Tory campaign - take a look at these two numbers.

In the old City of Toronto/downtown where Olivia Chow formerly served as a City Councillor and as MP for Trinity Spadina, Tory (53%) leads Chow (35%) and especially Ford (12%) by a wide margin. Among those who earn less than $40K a year, Tory (38%) and Chow (37%) are essentially tied, with Ford (26%) bringing up the rear.

The downtown that split between Smitherman and Pantelone and got behind one candidate to give David Miller power is now going to vote for the former leader of the Progressive Conservatives. This shows us that it’s actually not the splitting of progressives for progressive candidates - that will give us a Conservative Mayor like in 2010. It may well just be the splitting of progressives FOR a Conservative candidate this time around.

Part III: Map Quest: The Hunt for Red Toronto.





If you were working on the Tory campaign in early summer of this year - these two maps are daunting. Above is two election results - one where Rob Ford won - the other where David Miller beat John Tory. In that election John Tory took the suburbs with around the same percentage of the vote as Doug Ford has in the Forum poll. The blue guys win the suburbs and the downtown commie pinkos hold the fort for progressives. Split either one - there goes the election. Conventional wisdom looked at this and said John Tory and Doug Ford aren’t alone in the Suburbs - they have each other. So all Olivia has to do is hold the fort and take a couple of Suburban ridings which skew progressive and she squeaks by David Miller style. Olivia’s path was cut and dry with room to grow. The other two - well that was a mystery.

Building A Mystery #CanConPoints

Ford politics has no hope of attracting “pinko commie elites”. So if Doug can’t crack any of the downtown - how can he win? Simply put, his only prayer was to pin Tory as an out of touch faker on his suburban home turf and hope it stuck - even then, after all the drama of the past year, he probably didn’t have enough to win. Rob Ford won the fence sitters last time in 2010. Many folks didn’t know much about the Ford’s and loved the idea of a break on their taxes. This time out, the drama seems to outweigh this and besides Tory is offering the same vision. Almost all of the polls show throughout the summer until now, show that the Ford’s strategy hasn’t caught on.

With that being said, a solid guess by polling is that Ford Nation alone on election day can probably bring out 26% of the voters based on turnout polling numbers- at it’s height in horse race polling he still can’t beat Tory’s low. It’s just not enough to win you an election. So, Doug despite being great for election drama, doesn’t have the numbers to turn this into a 2010 redux. Which leaves one juicy narrative left - what if Olivia is Nader?

Enter Tory. As the former leader of the Progressive Conservatives, John Tory also had an uphill battle. His first strategy was to convince the public to make Rob leave, so he could take what he had in his battle against Miller.

When that trick didn’t work - it was all eyes set on downtown. With Ford Nation taking 26% of that suburban turf, John had to find some Olivia turf to make that ground up. With some red tories Ontario Liberals on board - John Tory the shiny new centrist took shape. When Olivia’s campaign faltered, Tory’s team landed at the top of the polls with Ford Nation holding strong in second - Olivia could now be painted as Toronto Nader.

When folks saw a poll result, they saw Ford Nation in second - not what they should see - a mounting Tory landslide, that shows Ford Nation’s ceiling. Within these numbers are turnout numbers and likeability factors. At many points in this campaign, Doug is polling higher than people actually like him - which could say something about the issues of Tory. But it’s also a problem come turnout time. Do voters dislike Tory enough to vote for Ford? Polls would say no. All which show Doug’s numbers are inflated. What we are really looking at here is the end of Ford Nation’s reign.

True, this election has had some pretty bad polling - and those are also averaged. Progressives still hurting from Ford vs. Smitherman began seeing their altruistic Pantalone vote - (forgetting that Smitherman became Ford-lite by the end of the campaign). You can label the Chow campaign a lot of things - but Ford-lite it isn’t.

How would former PC leader John Tory without much of a platform released or real progressive talking points and with silly “I don’t believe in white privilege” gaffes win downtown? Enter the need for a “Tory Progressive” aka the “Anybody but Ford” voter.

Yep, the evil of two lessers and the lesser of two evils hit a comical proportion in 2014.

Act One: Rob and John split the suburbs so somebody needs downtown votes. Rob and Doug know they can’t win downtown or win without the entire suburban vote, so they constantly attack Tory. Tory tries to get Rob to drop out.

Act Two: Rob leaves, tags his brother in. Toronto laughs but then laughing turns to panic when they forget Ford Nation is a base of voters that believe in the religion and not the head figure. Olivia forgets to turn to progressives and say “HEY sure one of these guys is a buffoon, but these two guys have the same vision for Toronto and p.s. will split the suburbs, so stick together and we’ve got this”. Tory fearing exactly that scenario cynically (or smartly) turns to progressives and says “At this point, if you grow an Olivia plant, it turns into a Ford Nation”. Even though it can’t.

Act Three? Progressives vote for Tory - because despite already beating Doug in the suburbs - he’s not beating Doug by enough for daily polling comfort - so they abandon the only electable progressive choice they have and elect the former Progressive Conservative Leader in a landslide to protect themselves from a “Ford Conservative” Toronto.

Welcome to how polling begins to Wag the Dog.

Look at these maps again. How does Doug Ford win as long John Tory is still around? His ceiling isn’t high enough even with an Olivia surge. Olivia can take back downtown - but Doug can’t gain. At this point in her campaign - Olivia has her comeback moment or she doesn’t. But if she somehow pulls it off, it will most likely be that 18% Tory has on her downtown turf - if she somehow takes downtown back, she would jump Doug Ford’s split suburbs numbers. Since early this year, polls have shown it almost impossible for Ford Nation to win an election because of John Tory. Even if Olivia gains Doug can at most hold on, but he still can’t overtake Tory or gain any support from Olivia’s base. And a Doug Ford hold - can’t win you an election. It isn’t downtowners keeping Ford out - it’s downtowners keeping Chow out. That isn’t to say there aren’t valid reasons for this and that Toronto’s changing demographics may prefer Red Tories. But that’s what is happening. We can talk election strategy - failure and successes all day long. But at the end of the day, really think about these two polling stats -

In the old City of Toronto/downtown where Olivia Chow formerly served as a City Councillor and as MP for Trinity Spadina, Tory (53%) leads Chow (35%) and especially Ford (12%) by a wide margin. Among those who earn less than $40K a year, Tory (38%) and Chow (37%) are essentially tied, with Ford (26%) bringing up the rear.

There’s a reason John Tory has a 56% lead in the polls with folks making over a $100,000. That you can understand - the other two stats need some serious consideration.

You almost get the Ford’s frustration at Tory’s success. Their latest attack ad reminds Toronto of the John Tory from just four years ago. “If you were looking for a better-run government, Doug is certainly the kind of person you want… he’s a smart button-down, no-nonsense business person”.