Jeff Sagarin NCAA football ratings  Sagarin ratings index All Contents Copyright © 2012 Jeff Sagarin tm . All rights reserved. COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2011 through results of 2012 JANUARY 9 MONDAY - BCS Championship Game - Final Ratings RATING and PREDICTOR are now unbiased and the ELO-CHESS is also unbiased now. this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom (2) CONFERENCE AVERAGES The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50% of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings. In COLLEGE FOOTBALL the W-L records include ALL games, but ONLY games between the 246 TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE STRENGTH computations. To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 92 would be favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 90. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 89 would be favored by 7 points over a HOME team having a rating of 79. NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below. In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season. THREE different home edges shown: first for RATING , second for ELO_CHESS , third for PREDICTOR(PURE POINTS) The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these rating's CURRENT top 10 and top 30 respectively. For the first few weeks of the season, the starting ratings have weight in the process(BAYESIAN), but once the teams are all WELL CONNECTED, then the starting ratings are no longer used and all teams are started equal and the RATING , ELO-CHESS , and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR) are then done in an UNBIASED manner from that point on. The teams are now WELL CONNECTED and so all three ratings are UNBIASED. Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In ELO CHESS , only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence, which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS , in which the score margin is the only thing that matters. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR , BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR of future games. The ELO CHESS will be utilized by the Bowl Championship Series(BCS). ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR) . _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 1 Alabama A = 104.17 12 1 76.53( 15) 2 1 | 4 1 | 106.06 1 | 102.72 1 2 LSU A = 100.30 13 1 78.93( 7) 3 1 | 6 1 | 103.42 2 | 98.31 2 3 Oklahoma State A = 97.01 12 1 80.06( 3) 2 0 | 7 0 | 98.19 4 | 95.86 3 4 Oklahoma A = 92.48 10 3 79.08( 6) 0 1 | 5 2 | 91.21 6 | 93.02 4 5 Oregon A = 91.82 12 2 73.53( 35) 2 1 | 2 2 | 90.43 9 | 92.48 7 6 Arkansas A = 91.06 11 2 75.29( 20) 1 2 | 3 2 | 99.53 3 | 87.43 9 7 Stanford A = 90.48 11 2 73.08( 36) 0 2 | 2 2 | 87.33 10 | 93.01 5 8 Wisconsin A = 88.67 11 3 71.81( 44) 0 1 | 3 2 | 84.31 18 | 92.90 6 9 Boise State A = 88.53 12 1 68.29( 75) 0 0 | 1 1 | 85.43 13 | 90.95 8 10 South Carolina A = 88.23 11 2 73.98( 32) 0 1 | 3 1 | 91.01 7 | 86.24 13 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 11 Michigan A = 86.54 11 2 72.20( 40) 0 0 | 3 1 | 84.96 16 | 87.34 10 12 Southern California A = 86.48 10 2 73.94( 33) 1 1 | 2 1 | 85.27 14 | 86.97 11 13 Baylor A = 86.01 10 3 78.00( 10) 1 1 | 4 3 | 90.95 8 | 83.11 22 14 Texas A&M A = 85.87 7 6 79.31( 4) 0 3 | 1 6 | 84.24 19 | 86.71 12 15 Houston A = 85.26 13 1 65.46( 97) 0 0 | 1 1 | 84.13 20 | 85.68 14 16 Missouri A = 85.25 8 5 77.58( 13) 0 2 | 2 4 | 84.99 15 | 85.00 16 17 Texas A = 85.21 8 5 79.26( 5) 0 2 | 1 5 | 85.96 12 | 84.28 17 18 Michigan State A = 85.13 11 3 72.93( 38) 1 1 | 3 3 | 84.67 17 | 85.03 15 19 Kansas State A = 84.56 10 3 78.81( 8) 0 3 | 4 3 | 91.91 5 | 80.86 23 20 TCU A = 84.13 11 2 66.76( 86) 1 0 | 1 1 | 83.72 22 | 84.00 18 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 21 Georgia A = 84.01 10 4 75.01( 23) 0 3 | 1 4 | 83.92 21 | 83.64 20 22 West Virginia A = 81.78 10 3 70.12( 57) 0 1 | 1 1 | 82.51 23 | 80.86 24 23 Florida State A = 81.16 9 4 68.96( 68) 0 1 | 2 1 | 77.53 34 | 83.99 19 24 Southern Miss A = 81.07 12 2 65.69( 94) 0 0 | 1 0 | 81.30 24 | 80.48 26 25 Nebraska A = 81.06 9 4 74.32( 26) 0 2 | 2 3 | 81.25 25 | 80.49 25 26 Notre Dame A = 79.91 8 5 74.54( 25) 0 1 | 1 4 | 75.89 39 | 83.15 21 27 Virginia Tech A = 79.14 11 3 70.05( 59) 0 0 | 0 1 | 79.38 29 | 78.54 27 28 Penn State A = 78.82 9 4 73.99( 31) 0 2 | 0 4 | 79.68 27 | 77.81 31 29 Florida A = 78.78 7 6 75.01( 22) 0 3 | 0 5 | 78.78 30 | 78.33 29 30 Cincinnati A = 78.63 10 3 68.43( 73) 0 0 | 0 1 | 78.42 32 | 78.35 28 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 31 Mississippi State A = 78.43 7 6 74.07( 28) 0 4 | 0 5 | 79.64 28 | 77.19 35 32 Clemson A = 77.78 10 4 72.09( 43) 0 1 | 3 2 | 80.71 26 | 75.57 45 33 Auburn A = 77.40 8 5 77.14( 14) 1 3 | 2 4 | 86.31 11 | 72.82 52 34 BYU A = 77.18 10 3 65.96( 90) 0 0 | 0 2 | 77.98 33 | 76.20 40 35 Tulsa A = 77.02 8 5 71.75( 45) 0 3 | 0 4 | 75.77 40 | 77.52 33 36 Rutgers A = 76.98 9 4 68.67( 69) 0 0 | 1 1 | 76.38 38 | 76.99 37 37 North Dakota State AA = 76.60 14 1 56.62( 136) 0 0 | 0 0 | 77.34 35 | 75.66 44 38 California A = 76.20 7 6 74.06( 29) 0 2 | 0 4 | 74.31 45 | 77.24 34 39 Utah A = 75.92 8 5 71.21( 49) 0 0 | 0 1 | 75.17 42 | 76.04 42 40 Toledo A = 75.21 9 4 67.22( 81) 0 1 | 0 1 | 73.46 47 | 76.12 41 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 41 Arizona State A = 74.94 6 7 73.86( 34) 0 2 | 2 2 | 71.28 59 | 77.62 32 42 Vanderbilt A = 74.94 6 7 74.12( 27) 0 3 | 0 6 | 71.83 54 | 77.07 36 43 Iowa State A = 74.64 6 7 80.40( 2) 1 1 | 1 6 | 78.49 31 | 71.89 59 44 Washington A = 74.52 7 6 74.54( 24) 0 2 | 0 5 | 75.41 41 | 73.48 50 45 Iowa A = 74.51 7 6 72.32( 39) 0 1 | 1 4 | 74.28 46 | 74.24 46 46 Temple A = 74.50 9 4 61.52( 119) 0 0 | 0 1 | 69.86 64 | 78.19 30 47 Northern Illinois A = 74.46 11 3 64.52( 103) 0 1 | 0 1 | 76.41 37 | 72.75 54 48 Louisiana Tech A = 74.34 8 5 68.39( 74) 0 0 | 0 3 | 71.29 58 | 76.41 39 49 Ohio State A = 74.19 6 7 74.06( 30) 1 0 | 1 5 | 71.58 56 | 75.85 43 50 Tennessee A = 74.09 5 7 77.83( 12) 0 4 | 1 6 | 74.32 44 | 73.49 49 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 51 SMU A = 73.88 8 5 68.59( 70) 0 0 | 1 3 | 74.55 43 | 72.98 51 52 Miami-Florida A = 73.61 6 6 69.86( 61) 0 0 | 0 3 | 69.56 66 | 76.63 38 53 Texas Tech A = 73.17 5 7 77.99( 11) 1 1 | 1 6 | 76.77 36 | 70.52 65 54 North Carolina A = 72.86 7 6 70.96( 51) 0 0 | 0 2 | 72.33 50 | 72.80 53 55 Illinois A = 72.80 7 6 70.52( 53) 0 1 | 0 3 | 72.33 51 | 72.70 55 56 Georgia Tech A = 72.31 8 5 68.05( 76) 0 0 | 0 2 | 72.15 53 | 71.98 58 57 NC State A = 71.70 8 5 66.99( 83) 0 0 | 0 2 | 72.99 48 | 70.39 66 58 Northwestern A = 71.35 6 7 71.38( 46) 0 0 | 1 4 | 69.12 68 | 72.65 56 59 South Florida A = 71.02 5 7 69.86( 62) 0 0 | 1 2 | 66.83 79 | 74.09 47 60 Nevada A = 70.89 7 6 66.61( 88) 0 2 | 0 3 | 66.63 81 | 74.01 48 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 61 Louisville A = 70.75 7 6 69.87( 60) 0 0 | 1 1 | 70.42 62 | 70.56 64 62 Sam Houston State AA = 70.59 14 1 49.45( 176) 0 0 | 0 0 | 71.82 55 | 69.31 71 63 Montana AA = 70.56 11 3 57.57( 130) 0 0 | 0 0 | 68.78 71 | 71.47 62 64 Arizona A = 70.52 4 8 75.64( 18) 0 3 | 0 4 | 68.23 74 | 71.86 60 65 Purdue A = 70.28 7 6 69.27( 65) 0 1 | 0 4 | 71.32 57 | 69.13 72 66 UCLA A = 70.18 6 8 76.14( 16) 0 2 | 0 5 | 70.69 61 | 69.38 70 67 Arkansas State A = 69.89 10 3 60.09( 124) 0 0 | 0 1 | 70.95 60 | 68.72 75 68 Ohio A = 69.81 10 4 61.59( 118) 0 0 | 0 0 | 70.24 63 | 69.08 74 69 Pittsburgh A = 69.65 6 7 71.29( 48) 0 0 | 0 3 | 68.84 70 | 69.80 68 70 San Diego State A = 69.30 8 5 65.56( 95) 0 1 | 0 3 | 67.35 77 | 70.34 67 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 71 Virginia A = 69.17 8 5 68.48( 71) 0 0 | 1 2 | 72.80 49 | 66.40 80 72 Air Force A = 68.58 7 6 64.28( 104) 0 1 | 0 3 | 63.70 93 | 72.19 57 73 Wake Forest A = 68.42 6 7 70.41( 54) 0 0 | 1 2 | 68.34 73 | 68.03 77 74 Navy A = 68.37 5 7 69.04( 67) 0 1 | 0 3 | 64.35 90 | 71.17 63 75 Northern Iowa AA = 68.20 10 3 60.03( 126) 0 0 | 0 0 | 69.34 67 | 66.98 79 76 Connecticut A = 68.09 5 7 69.33( 64) 0 0 | 0 2 | 66.18 82 | 69.10 73 77 Central Florida(UCF) A = 67.61 5 7 64.61( 102) 0 0 | 0 1 | 62.07 104 | 71.81 61 78 Western Michigan A = 67.51 7 6 64.91( 99) 0 0 | 0 1 | 65.84 85 | 68.32 76 79 Marshall A = 67.49 7 6 70.29( 56) 0 0 | 1 3 | 72.26 52 | 64.02 90 80 Utah State A = 67.43 7 6 64.90( 100) 0 0 | 0 0 | 64.34 91 | 69.41 69 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 81 Georgia Southern AA = 67.24 11 3 56.44( 139) 0 1 | 0 1 | 68.20 75 | 66.13 82 82 Louisiana-Lafayette A = 66.60 9 4 60.47( 122) 0 1 | 0 1 | 69.67 65 | 64.11 89 83 Washington State A = 66.14 4 8 71.29( 47) 0 2 | 0 2 | 63.60 94 | 67.64 78 84 Wyoming A = 66.09 8 5 65.77( 92) 0 1 | 0 3 | 67.67 76 | 64.55 86 85 Kentucky A = 66.03 5 7 72.18( 41) 0 2 | 0 4 | 68.70 72 | 63.78 92 86 Syracuse A = 65.97 5 7 70.39( 55) 0 0 | 1 2 | 66.85 78 | 64.90 83 87 Oregon State A = 65.76 3 9 75.59( 19) 0 3 | 0 3 | 64.51 88 | 66.24 81 88 Minnesota A = 64.89 3 9 75.86( 17) 0 1 | 0 5 | 65.63 86 | 63.92 91 89 Rice A = 64.45 4 8 72.95( 37) 0 0 | 0 4 | 66.06 83 | 62.88 98 90 Boston College A = 64.40 4 8 70.71( 52) 0 0 | 0 3 | 63.14 95 | 64.88 84 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 91 Kansas A = 64.09 2 10 80.72( 1) 0 2 | 0 7 | 68.85 69 | 60.49 112 92 UTEP A = 63.71 5 7 66.69( 87) 0 0 | 0 2 | 62.39 102 | 64.25 88 93 East Carolina A = 63.52 5 7 68.48( 72) 0 1 | 0 4 | 64.49 89 | 62.39 100 94 Fla. International A = 63.26 8 5 59.28( 127) 0 0 | 0 0 | 63.00 96 | 63.02 97 95 Montana State AA = 63.07 10 3 56.92( 134) 0 0 | 0 0 | 66.70 80 | 60.13 115 96 San Jose State A = 62.99 5 7 67.49( 80) 0 1 | 0 1 | 61.94 106 | 63.32 95 97 Hawaii A = 62.79 6 7 62.30( 114) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.92 112 | 64.51 87 98 Miami-Ohio A = 62.62 4 8 66.77( 85) 0 0 | 0 2 | 59.20 119 | 64.76 85 99 Bowling Green A = 62.57 5 7 65.70( 93) 0 0 | 0 1 | 62.36 103 | 62.28 101 100 Ball State A = 62.43 6 6 67.63( 78) 0 1 | 0 1 | 65.96 84 | 59.54 116 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 101 Western Kentucky A = 62.11 7 5 61.27( 120) 0 1 | 0 1 | 64.07 92 | 60.27 114 102 Maine AA = 62.08 9 4 55.13( 149) 0 0 | 0 0 | 62.73 98 | 61.18 108 103 Mississippi A = 61.77 2 10 78.17( 9) 0 3 | 0 4 | 62.55 101 | 60.77 110 104 Maryland A = 61.76 2 10 72.18( 42) 0 0 | 0 3 | 60.53 110 | 62.22 102 105 Fresno State A = 61.68 4 9 67.89( 77) 0 1 | 0 2 | 59.21 118 | 63.08 96 106 Lehigh AA = 61.67 11 2 47.62( 186) 0 0 | 0 0 | 64.80 87 | 59.03 118 107 Colorado A = 61.65 3 10 75.03( 21) 0 2 | 0 3 | 62.82 97 | 60.37 113 108 Illinois State AA = 61.60 7 4 54.01( 155) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.35 116 | 62.83 99 109 Cal Poly-SLO AA = 61.08 6 5 60.38( 123) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.29 117 | 61.96 103 110 Wofford AA = 60.97 8 4 56.22( 141) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.39 115 | 61.70 104 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 111 Southern Utah AA = 60.55 6 5 55.97( 144) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.19 132 | 63.37 94 112 Army A = 60.51 3 9 67.60( 79) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.71 134 | 63.69 93 113 Duke A = 60.07 3 9 69.52( 63) 0 1 | 0 3 | 58.88 120 | 60.51 111 114 Towson AA = 60.02 9 3 52.09( 165) 0 0 | 0 0 | 62.07 105 | 58.11 122 115 Youngstown State AA = 60.01 6 5 55.29( 148) 0 0 | 0 1 | 57.80 123 | 61.19 107 116 Kent State A = 59.79 5 7 65.46( 96) 0 1 | 0 2 | 61.62 107 | 58.02 124 117 Indiana State AA = 59.66 6 5 59.19( 128) 0 0 | 0 1 | 61.25 108 | 58.07 123 118 Harvard AA = 59.61 9 1 42.81( 202) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.42 130 | 61.53 106 119 Eastern Michigan A = 59.57 6 6 61.67( 117) 0 0 | 0 2 | 62.60 100 | 56.95 131 120 New Hampshire AA = 59.50 8 4 55.97( 145) 0 0 | 0 0 | 62.68 99 | 56.78 132 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 121 North Texas A = 59.18 5 7 64.15( 105) 0 1 | 0 2 | 59.51 114 | 58.51 119 122 James Madison AA = 59.09 8 5 54.99( 151) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.66 113 | 58.24 120 123 Old Dominion AA = 59.03 10 3 49.72( 174) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.35 111 | 57.62 125 124 Louisiana-Monroe A = 58.88 4 8 62.39( 113) 0 0 | 0 2 | 55.24 135 | 61.12 109 125 Eastern Washington AA = 58.86 6 5 57.48( 132) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.66 125 | 59.30 117 126 Central Arkansas AA = 58.06 9 4 53.26( 161) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.89 109 | 55.56 137 127 Chattanooga AA = 57.68 5 6 55.31( 147) 0 0 | 0 1 | 51.56 149 | 61.69 105 128 North Dakota AA = 57.35 8 3 55.01( 150) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.05 127 | 57.12 128 129 Delaware AA = 57.06 7 4 52.07( 166) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.58 129 | 56.96 130 130 South Dakota AA = 57.00 6 5 63.32( 111) 0 1 | 0 1 | 56.37 131 | 57.01 129 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 131 Appalachian State AA = 56.92 8 4 53.00( 163) 0 0 | 0 1 | 57.91 122 | 55.74 136 132 Portland State AA = 56.74 7 4 56.60( 137) 0 0 | 0 1 | 56.86 128 | 56.22 134 133 New Mexico State A = 56.68 4 9 66.32( 89) 0 0 | 0 1 | 57.75 124 | 55.46 139 134 Furman AA = 56.44 6 5 53.70( 159) 0 0 | 0 1 | 53.44 139 | 58.18 121 135 Buffalo A = 56.15 3 9 65.18( 98) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.72 133 | 56.03 135 136 Weber State AA = 56.15 5 6 57.56( 131) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.12 137 | 57.18 127 137 Central Michigan A = 56.00 3 9 65.94( 91) 0 0 | 0 1 | 57.12 126 | 54.73 144 138 Stony Brook AA = 55.38 9 4 46.47( 191) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.13 147 | 57.27 126 139 Indiana A = 55.37 1 11 70.97( 50) 0 1 | 0 3 | 53.04 141 | 56.62 133 140 South Dakota State AA = 55.32 5 6 60.96( 121) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.25 121 | 52.68 150 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 141 Idaho A = 54.74 2 10 67.04( 82) 0 0 | 0 1 | 53.52 138 | 55.18 142 142 Colorado State A = 54.65 3 9 63.94( 106) 0 1 | 0 2 | 52.95 142 | 55.44 140 143 Stephen F. Austin AA = 54.05 6 5 51.83( 167) 0 0 | 0 1 | 51.67 148 | 55.32 141 144 Samford AA = 53.16 6 5 54.84( 153) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.83 143 | 52.97 149 145 Sacramento State AA = 52.85 4 7 56.52( 138) 0 0 | 0 0 | 49.76 156 | 54.60 145 146 Southern Illinois AA = 52.80 4 7 56.31( 140) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.66 155 | 53.90 147 147 Troy A = 52.68 3 9 63.60( 109) 0 1 | 0 1 | 52.32 146 | 52.50 151 148 Northern Arizona AA = 52.60 4 7 57.41( 133) 0 0 | 0 0 | 47.78 171 | 55.47 138 149 Liberty AA = 52.59 7 4 44.84( 196) 0 0 | 0 0 | 48.75 162 | 54.84 143 150 Massachusetts AA = 52.34 5 6 54.15( 154) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.11 140 | 51.32 155 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 151 UC Davis AA = 52.30 4 7 58.32( 129) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.82 144 | 51.47 153 152 UAB A = 52.04 3 9 66.82( 84) 0 0 | 1 2 | 54.34 136 | 49.83 162 153 Eastern Kentucky AA = 51.68 7 5 48.25( 184) 0 0 | 0 1 | 47.83 168 | 53.90 148 154 Brown AA = 51.51 7 3 44.70( 197) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.10 152 | 51.37 154 155 UNLV A = 51.47 2 10 69.16( 66) 0 2 | 0 3 | 52.36 145 | 50.35 159 156 Citadel AA = 51.02 4 7 53.03( 162) 0 1 | 0 1 | 45.62 179 | 54.20 146 157 Holy Cross AA = 50.79 6 5 49.07( 178) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.01 153 | 50.18 160 158 Norfolk State AA = 50.43 9 3 41.54( 209) 0 0 | 0 1 | 51.43 151 | 49.23 165 159 Georgetown AA = 49.97 8 3 41.51( 210) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.82 154 | 48.88 166 160 Missouri State AA = 49.93 2 9 63.74( 108) 0 2 | 0 2 | 49.31 159 | 49.95 161 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 161 Tennessee Tech AA = 49.71 7 4 47.82( 185) 0 0 | 0 0 | 47.97 166 | 50.52 157 162 Bethune-Cookman AA = 49.64 8 3 40.05( 219) 0 0 | 0 0 | 48.79 161 | 49.83 163 163 Murray State AA = 49.63 7 4 43.45( 200) 0 0 | 0 0 | 45.51 180 | 51.98 152 164 Jacksonville State AA = 49.63 7 4 46.60( 190) 0 0 | 0 0 | 47.80 170 | 50.49 158 165 William & Mary AA = 49.36 5 6 53.96( 156) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.48 150 | 47.25 172 166 Rhode Island AA = 48.70 3 8 56.21( 142) 0 0 | 0 0 | 49.32 158 | 47.79 170 167 Northwestern State AA = 48.39 5 6 52.98( 164) 0 1 | 0 1 | 47.31 173 | 48.73 168 168 Albany-NY AA = 48.37 8 4 39.79( 220) 0 0 | 0 0 | 43.26 192 | 51.27 156 169 Middle Tennessee A = 48.29 2 10 61.77( 116) 0 0 | 0 0 | 49.44 157 | 46.98 174 170 SC State AA = 47.84 7 4 40.79( 215) 0 0 | 0 0 | 47.31 172 | 47.78 171 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 171 Tulane A = 47.69 2 11 63.47( 110) 0 0 | 0 1 | 47.89 167 | 47.11 173 172 Elon AA = 47.61 5 6 54.95( 152) 0 0 | 0 0 | 48.66 163 | 46.36 178 173 McNeese State AA = 47.56 6 5 48.83( 181) 0 0 | 0 0 | 48.28 164 | 46.57 176 174 Duquesne AA = 47.42 9 2 35.75( 234) 0 0 | 0 0 | 44.68 184 | 48.87 167 175 New Mexico A = 47.05 1 11 70.12( 58) 0 2 | 0 3 | 49.26 160 | 44.84 185 176 Drake AA = 46.98 9 2 36.67( 227) 0 0 | 0 0 | 44.17 186 | 48.48 169 177 Richmond AA = 46.70 3 8 53.88( 157) 0 0 | 0 0 | 45.98 178 | 46.78 175 178 Texas State AA = 46.65 6 6 50.77( 170) 0 0 | 0 0 | 48.13 165 | 45.04 184 179 Bucknell AA = 46.62 6 5 45.48( 194) 0 0 | 0 0 | 46.59 175 | 46.20 179 180 Tennessee-Martin AA = 46.55 5 6 47.48( 187) 0 0 | 0 0 | 40.78 198 | 49.75 164 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 181 South Alabama AA = 45.75 6 4 46.93( 189) 0 0 | 0 0 | 44.85 183 | 45.96 180 182 Memphis A = 45.68 2 10 63.18( 112) 0 0 | 0 1 | 47.81 169 | 43.53 190 183 Western Illinois AA = 45.10 2 9 62.27( 115) 0 0 | 0 1 | 47.02 174 | 43.12 192 184 Tennessee State AA = 44.50 5 6 45.59( 193) 0 0 | 0 0 | 40.96 196 | 46.41 177 185 Lafayette AA = 44.50 4 7 50.81( 169) 0 0 | 0 0 | 45.24 181 | 43.49 191 186 Cornell AA = 44.44 5 5 42.59( 205) 0 0 | 0 0 | 42.21 193 | 45.54 181 187 Yale AA = 44.43 5 5 45.36( 195) 0 0 | 0 0 | 44.62 185 | 43.84 188 188 Coastal Carolina AA = 44.40 7 4 44.56( 198) 0 0 | 0 1 | 46.06 177 | 42.63 195 189 Jackson State AA = 43.89 9 2 30.18( 245) 0 0 | 0 0 | 41.55 195 | 45.07 183 190 Florida Atlantic A = 43.84 1 11 64.64( 101) 0 0 | 0 2 | 46.18 176 | 41.46 200 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 191 Colgate AA = 43.52 5 6 47.37( 188) 0 0 | 0 0 | 45.22 182 | 41.70 198 192 San Diego AA = 43.37 9 2 35.69( 235) 0 0 | 0 0 | 43.33 190 | 42.95 193 193 Jacksonville AA = 43.33 7 4 37.01( 226) 0 0 | 0 0 | 39.45 206 | 45.41 182 194 Florida A&M AA = 42.91 7 4 38.58( 224) 0 0 | 0 0 | 43.33 191 | 42.15 197 195 Villanova AA = 42.90 2 9 55.90( 146) 0 0 | 0 0 | 44.00 188 | 41.59 199 196 Presbyterian College AA = 42.90 4 7 51.83( 168) 0 0 | 0 0 | 39.48 205 | 44.70 186 197 Dartmouth AA = 42.69 5 5 42.82( 201) 0 0 | 0 0 | 42.07 194 | 42.71 194 198 Akron A = 42.49 1 11 63.76( 107) 0 0 | 0 1 | 44.11 187 | 40.75 202 199 Hampton AA = 42.48 7 4 36.48( 231) 0 0 | 0 0 | 43.75 189 | 41.03 201 200 Texas-San Antonio AA = 42.27 4 6 53.38( 160) 0 0 | 0 0 | 39.58 203 | 43.65 189 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 201 Eastern Illinois AA = 41.06 2 9 49.45( 177) 0 0 | 0 0 | 35.32 216 | 44.01 187 202 Pennsylvania AA = 40.84 5 5 41.36( 213) 0 0 | 0 0 | 40.86 197 | 40.38 206 203 Bryant AA = 40.84 7 4 38.95( 222) 0 0 | 0 0 | 37.94 211 | 42.32 196 204 Alabama State AA = 40.59 8 3 31.76( 244) 0 0 | 0 0 | 40.19 202 | 40.44 204 205 Idaho State AA = 39.95 2 9 60.07( 125) 0 0 | 0 0 | 40.77 199 | 38.86 209 206 NC A&T AA = 39.87 5 6 42.62( 204) 0 0 | 0 0 | 40.58 200 | 38.86 210 207 SE Louisiana AA = 39.64 3 8 49.62( 175) 0 0 | 0 1 | 38.91 208 | 39.73 207 208 Georgia State AA = 39.17 3 8 49.90( 173) 0 0 | 0 1 | 38.83 209 | 38.99 208 209 Northern Colorado AA = 38.79 0 11 56.13( 143) 0 0 | 0 0 | 35.56 215 | 40.44 205 210 Dayton AA = 37.65 6 5 34.38( 238) 0 0 | 0 0 | 31.28 227 | 40.73 203 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 211 Monmouth-NJ AA = 36.86 5 6 40.11( 218) 0 0 | 0 0 | 36.54 213 | 36.65 211 212 Morgan State AA = 35.81 5 6 40.64( 216) 0 0 | 0 0 | 39.57 204 | 31.66 225 213 Grambling State AA = 35.75 8 4 32.79( 240) 0 0 | 0 0 | 39.34 207 | 31.82 224 214 Howard AA = 35.74 5 6 42.17( 208) 0 0 | 0 0 | 40.52 201 | 30.16 231 215 SE Missouri State AA = 35.25 3 8 48.61( 182) 0 0 | 0 0 | 34.85 218 | 35.10 214 216 Campbell AA = 35.23 6 5 36.62( 228) 0 0 | 0 0 | 34.09 220 | 35.60 213 217 Western Carolina AA = 34.96 1 10 56.62( 135) 0 0 | 0 0 | 34.33 219 | 34.98 215 218 Central Connecticut AA = 34.61 4 7 41.38( 212) 0 0 | 0 0 | 31.12 228 | 36.34 212 219 Wagner AA = 34.40 4 7 40.50( 217) 0 0 | 0 0 | 33.45 221 | 34.64 217 220 Lamar AA = 34.29 4 7 48.90( 180) 0 0 | 0 0 | 38.48 210 | 29.45 235 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 221 Gardner-Webb AA = 34.04 4 7 50.42( 171) 0 0 | 0 0 | 35.68 214 | 32.20 222 222 Alabama A&M AA = 33.77 8 4 32.00( 242) 0 0 | 0 0 | 37.06 212 | 30.10 233 223 Sacred Heart AA = 33.70 5 6 36.61( 229) 0 0 | 0 0 | 32.56 225 | 34.07 218 224 Austin Peay AA = 33.61 3 8 48.59( 183) 0 0 | 0 1 | 35.09 217 | 31.90 223 225 Marist AA = 33.49 4 7 37.72( 225) 0 0 | 0 0 | 30.74 230 | 34.82 216 226 Nicholls State AA = 31.82 1 10 53.70( 158) 0 0 | 0 0 | 30.57 231 | 32.26 221 227 Fordham AA = 31.65 1 10 50.38( 172) 0 0 | 0 0 | 32.91 224 | 30.13 232 228 Ark.-Pine Bluff AA = 31.64 6 5 30.17( 246) 0 0 | 0 0 | 33.18 223 | 29.86 234 229 Princeton AA = 30.87 1 9 46.45( 192) 0 0 | 0 0 | 30.26 232 | 30.88 228 230 Prairie View A&M AA = 30.83 5 6 34.45( 237) 0 0 | 0 0 | 33.19 222 | 28.18 237 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 231 Butler AA = 30.74 5 6 36.38( 232) 0 0 | 0 0 | 26.08 238 | 32.94 220 232 Columbia AA = 29.93 1 9 42.19( 207) 0 0 | 0 0 | 27.25 236 | 31.20 226 233 Morehead State AA = 29.91 3 8 36.61( 230) 0 0 | 0 0 | 22.30 242 | 33.06 219 234 VMI AA = 29.68 2 9 44.02( 199) 0 0 | 0 0 | 31.01 229 | 28.08 238 235 Southern U. AA = 29.52 4 7 33.50( 239) 0 0 | 0 0 | 29.46 234 | 29.11 236 236 Robert Morris AA = 29.40 2 9 39.25( 221) 0 0 | 0 0 | 25.60 239 | 31.20 227 237 Charleston Southern AA = 29.33 0 11 49.07( 179) 0 0 | 0 1 | 26.17 237 | 30.84 229 238 Saint Francis-Pa. AA = 28.76 2 9 41.31( 214) 0 0 | 0 0 | 25.35 240 | 30.37 230 239 NC Central AA = 26.93 2 9 42.21( 206) 0 0 | 0 0 | 28.38 235 | 25.19 239 240 Delaware State AA = 26.67 3 8 41.44( 211) 0 0 | 0 0 | 32.02 226 | 18.34 243 FINAL College Football 2011 through games of 2012 January 9 Monday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.87 ] [ 2.31 ] [ 2.79 ] 241 Savannah State AA = 24.57 1 10 42.68( 203) 0 0 | 0 0 | 29.84 233 | 15.87 245 242 Texas Southern AA = 22.75 4 7 31.92( 243) 0 0 | 0 0 | 23.01 241 | 22.09 240 243 Davidson AA = 21.42 4 7 36.22( 233) 0 0 | 0 0 | 21.97 243 | 20.52 241 244 Alcorn State AA = 19.62 2 8 32.59( 241) 0 0 | 0 0 | 19.53 244 | 19.24 242 245 Miss. Valley State AA = 18.15 1 10 34.67( 236) 0 0 | 0 0 | 19.28 245 | 16.68 244 246 Valparaiso AA = 17.60 1 10 38.63( 223) 0 0 | 0 0 | 19.06 246 | 15.77 246 247 ***UNRATED*** __ = -90.00 9 73 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | -90.00 247 | -90.00 247 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________