By

Thanks to the data collected by Ryan Stimson and the passing project, a number of interesting names have garnered some attention for their on-ice play. Kris Versteeg, a fancy-stats darling who is currently on a PTO with the Edmonton Oilers, is an example of a good hockey player who appears to be even better than his advanced stats indicated.

Over the past few weeks, I’ve focused on shot assists (passes that lead directly to a shot attempt) by defensemen, highlighting the creativity of P.K. Subban, Thomas Hickey’s underrated offensive facilitation, the passivity of the N.J. Devils, and Anaheim’s aggressiveness from the blue line.

I’ve also discussed why the passing project data is important. As always, Stimson’s done the heavy lifting in explaining the passing data’s value and you can check out his indispensable work on this here.

The big takeaways are that primary shot contributions (PSC) is a pretty repeatable stat, suggesting that it’s driven by player talent. PSC does a strong job of predicting how many primary points a player will accumulate during a season and does so earlier than other metrics.

In this piece, I’ll shift focus to some forwards, digging into the strategies used by top passers that lead to strong shot assist rates (ShA/60). For this study, I’ll focus on two of the NHL’s leaders in ShA60 – Versteeg and Henrik Sedin.

Here’s how the pair looked relative to the rest of the league:

*interact with this visual here.

Sedin led the league in ShA/60 last year, managing just under 22 shot assists per 60 minutes at even-strength. Thornton is his only peer in the “playmakers” quadrant (top-left), which comes as no surprise.

Versteeg’s shots rate was above league average and much stronger than Sedin’s (about 14 shots per 60 for Versteeg compared with ~6 shots/60 for Sedin, who is one of the most reluctant shooters in the NHL). Still, Versteeg’s shot assist rate places him just behind Sedin and Thornton at ~19 ShA/60.

Compared to their teams, each player stood out:

I’ve noted previously that defensemen with strong ShA/60 rates like Subban and Hickey seem to get involved in their team’s offensive play by pinching low into the offensive zone and choosing to direct the puck into the slot rather than dumping the puck into the corners to create a cycle. This makes sense — defensemen that join the offensive play and look for passing linkups help to create more shots.

The degree to which this is systems-based is a little murky but it looks like top offensive performers pick their spots to get involved despite the team’s system. This isn’t a question I’ve looked into deeply, though, and it certainly warrants much extra research.

For forwards, I’ll attempt to isolate which strategies are regularly employed by top passers, leading to greater shot attempt rates? Is it entirely systems-based? Are there specific player tactics that stand out? For that, we’ll turn to some video.

Carolina Hurricans vs Vancouver Canucks – January 6, 2016

Early in this game between the Hurricanes and Canucks, Henrik Sedin begins to flash a pattern of behavior that recurs throughout the match. First, the puck is flicked behind the net and is recovered by Sedin. Henrik sets up in ‘Gretzky’s office.” As he settles the puck, we can see that the Hurricanes have mostly collapsed back to the slot. The Canucks are still adjusting to the puck’s location and are mostly positioned far from the goal.

3 seconds later, Henrik is still dangling the puck, daring the Hurricanes’ defenders to chase him behind the goal. Meanwhile, Daniel Sedin and Jannik Hansen have each driven through the slot, trying to make themselves available for a pass.

Another few seconds pass, the play’s been well-defended, and Sedin directs the puck to Alex Biega at the point for a shot.

Alex Biega fires on goal. Nothing very dangerous comes of the play. Henrik has his first shot assists of the game. Let’s move on.

This is a one-off still-frame. Henrik Sedin winds up with the puck behind Carolina’s net again just a couple of minutes after his first visit. He attempts to create a high-danger chance for a teammate but nothing materializes here and he does not earn a shot assist. Still, it’s becoming clear that Henrik intends to create offense from behind the net.

Which leads into the next four stills…

On this play, Daniel Sedin passes the puck to Henrik who shifts to, you guessed it, a spot behind the net. Henrik evaluates options and bides time until all Hurricanes have collapsed to the front of the net. Then, Henrik feeds Matt Bartkowski for a shot from near the faceoff dot. Another shot assist for Henrik Sedin and this makes his third time looking to create offense from behind the net.

The best part of all? Henrik Sedin manages to get behind the net for a shot assists two more times on this same shift. Here’s the end result of those two sequences:

A quick shot by Daniel Sedin (no goal).

Another shot by Daniel Sedin.

In the first 15 minutes of the game, Henrik has set up behind the goal five separate times, generating four shot attempts for teammates in the process.

Over the remainder of this game, Sedin doesn’t get another 5-on-5 opportunity to create offense from behind the net but it’s worth noting that he continually assumed positions behind the goal when in the offensive zone, simply stepping to the front of the net if a behind-the-net feed became unlikely as his teammates cycled the puck. Henrik employed this strategy during power play work as well.

So, Sedin’s pattern is clear. Establishing behind-the-net positions to create shot attempts provides him with some protection from defenders, allowing space and time to choose options. Also, it’s clear that setting up behind the net creates a defensive issue for defending teams – as the Hurricanes collapsed to the slot area, they were forced to turn their eyes away from pinching Vancouver defensemen and forwards slashing across the front of the net.

Sedin created seven shot assists in about 15 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time — about 28 shot assists per 60 in this game, which is stronger than his season average.

But what about Versteeg?

In approximately the same amount of 5-on-5 time-on-ice, Versteeg wasn’t nearly as impressive, managing two shot assists (~8 ShA/60, well below his season average). We don’t have as much to go on for Versteeg in the video here, but the Hurricanes did show a strategy that connects with what we’ve noted previously — the utility of pinching defensemen. Let’s take a look.

Early in the first, both of Carolina’s defensemen notice that the Canucks have packed deep into their defensive posture. Both defenders pinch to the top of the faceoff circles here. Nothing comes of the play but this hints at the selective aggression the Canes’ blueliners employ throughout the game.

Again, not a shot assist by Versteeg, but Carolina’s selective aggression is on display here again – two forwards in the slot, one in the high slot, an engaged defender pinching to the faceoff circle on the near boards and the other defenseman poised at the top of the opposite faceoff circle. It appears that Carolina’s defensemen are permitted or encouraged to make themselves available as passing outlets on offense.

This is Versteeg’s first shot assist. After emerging with the puck along the boards, he slides a pass to a newly open defenseman who fires on goal. Nothing much materializes here. Moving along.

In these two frames, we see a combination of the two effects noted in this game so far. Versteeg creates a shot attempt from below the red line (a similar position to Henrik Sedin’s location during Vancouver’s offensive chances). The recipient of Versteeg’s shot assist is Jeff Skinner.

What’s missing in this view is that Vancouver’s forward is late to checking Skinner (see outstretched stick) as he recovers from covering Carolina’s pinching strong-side defenseman. An indirect benefit of pinching blue liners is extra free ice for forwards to create passing lanes.

One last time, it’s worth noting how Carolina’s activated defense creates extra offensive space for passes. Versteeg doesn’t get a shot assist on this play (an unusually quiet night for the typically productive forward) but Justin Faulk’s deep pinch draws the attention of Vancouver’s defensive posture, leaving his defense partner and the high slot forward uncovered for a pass.

Though Carolina doesn’t seem to activate its defense to the degree that Anaheim or Dallas does, it appears there may be something to the team’s activated defense corps that warrants further study.

Some takeaways

Henrik Sedin and Kris Versteeg are two of the NHL’s best primary passers. Sedin shows the power of working from behind the net, taking advantage of the structural protection and turning the eyes of defenders away from his teammates as they work to get open.

Versteeg doesn’t manage much in this quick video review but the power of an activated defense is highlighed. When a team’s blue liners are free to join in the offense, more passing lanes open up.

A quick look at defensemen engagement in offense by team shows that Carolina is just a bit better than average (avg = ~5.5 ShA/60).

*interact with the viz here.

The Hurricanes’ defense corps isn’t phenomenally more engaged than average but it’s just enough, likely, to help facilitate Versteeg’s rise into the upper echelon of shot assist artists last season.

Is Sedin’s behind-the-net positioning the key for forwards looking to create offense with the pass?

Is an activated defense the most important factor in creating the offensive zone passing lanes needed to facilitate offense?

The work here suggests that the answer to both questions is “probably yes” but both questions deserve further research before any solid conclusions can be drawn. One conclusion that does seem safe is that the Edmonton Oilers would be wise to sign Versteeg while they have the chance to do so.

What makes Henrik Sedin & Kris Versteeg such effective passers?