Southwest Florida Democrats start at a disadvantage in most races.

The Republican tilt in both Sarasota and Manatee counties is significant, if not overwhelming. Republicans have a 12 percentage point registration advantage over Democrats in Sarasota and 13 point advantage in Manatee, and that shows in election results.

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney beat President Barack Obama by seven percentage points in Sarasota in 2012 and by 12 points in Manatee.

Some thought the 2016 election might be different. There were predictions that Donald Trump’s polarizing campaign would implode, dragging down Republicans running for lower-profile offices.

It didn’t happen. Trump swamped Democrat Hillary Clinton in Sarasota and Manatee on his way to winning the presidency. Trump won Sarasota County by 11.5 percentage points and Manatee by 17 points.

That big margin of victory at the top of the ticket raised the question of whether Democrats ever really had a chance at winning down ballot races. It's hard to overperform your party's standard-bearer by that much.

But at least one local legislative seat remained competitive despite Trump's dominance. The District 72 state House seat covering northern Sarasota County has long been an enticing target for Democrats. A recent review of elections data by Dave Trotter, a former Democratic operative in Florida who runs the Political Hurricane blog, found that Trump performed about as well as Romney did in the district, with both winning by just a few percentage points.

In other words, District 72 did not get caught up in the Trump wave and remains one of the best opportunities for a Democrat to win office locally.

Former Democratic state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald represented the district when it had a different number and slightly more favorable voter registration breakdown for his party.

Fitzgerald lost the seat to former state Rep. Ray Pilon in 2010.

Sarasota Democrat Edward James III was hoping to reclaim the seat for his party in 2016. He amassed a huge financial war chest and put together a highly professional campaign.

James’ campaign was rocked by the revelation that he’d been accused of sexual assault. He denied the accusation, was never arrested and charges were never filed after the alleged victim stopped cooperating with police.

Despite that baggage, some thought Trump’s strong performance in Sarasota County indicated James essentially was doomed from the start.

But Trump only won District 72 by 4.4 percentage points. By contrast, Romney won it by 3.5 percentage points. James lost to Republican Alex Miller by 16.1 percentage points.

James always had an uphill climb in the district but it was within reach for him on Election Day if he had not been overtaken by scandal.

The same cannot be said of the Democrats vying for other local state House and Senate districts.

Trump won every other legislative district in Sarasota and Manatee counties – except for heavily Democratic House District 70 – by double digits.

The best state House district for Trump locally was the District 73 seat won by Sarasota GOP Chairman Joe Gruters. Trump had a 25 percentage point margin of victory in District 73. Trump won District 74 (held by Venice GOP state Rep. Julio Gonzalez) by 23 percentage points. He won District 71 (held by Bradenton GOP state Rep. Jim Boyd) by 11 percentage points.

The top of the ticket performance indicates Democrats have little chance of winning any of those three state House districts going forward. They also face huge hurdles toward winning the region’s two state Senate districts.

Trump won state Senate District 19, which covers all of Manatee County and part of Hillsborough County and is held by Bradenton Republican Sen. Bill Galvano, by 18 percentage points. And Trump won Senate District 23, which covers all of Sarasota County and part of Charlotte County and was claimed by Sarasota Republican Greg Steube this year, by 14.3 percentage points.

The results in District 23 are noteworthy. Trump performed much better there than Romney, who won the district by 8.3 percentage points. That’s further evidence the district – which had long been represented by more moderate Republicans before Steube, an outspoken conservative, claimed it this year — has become more conservative.

While Democrats remain at a disadvantage in Southwest Florida and their performance in local legislative races reflects that, Trotter’s analysis indicates there are plenty of legislative seats around the state where Democrats have an advantage but failed to seize it.

Clinton carried 51 state House seat districts but Democrats only hold 41 seats in the House. Democrats did pick up four House seats this year, but Republicans won eight seats that Clinton won by 5 percentage points or more.

It’s the same story in the state Senate, where Democrats picked up one seat this year but only hold 15 seats, even though Clinton won 19 out of 40.

Florida Democrats will choose a new leader this week and the fact that Democratic legislative candidates have long under performed the top of the ticket is a key issue in the five-person race. The party needs to do a better job of recruiting good candidates, fundraising and running a strong voter registration and turnout machine. But that’s easier said than done, as the 2016 election results show.

Ziegler running hard

Florida Democrats aren’t the only ones choosing a new leader in Orlando next week.

Florida Republicans will gather at the same time Saturday morning in a nearby hotel to pick a new chairman, and Christian Ziegler plans to campaign hard for the job until the end.

Ziegler, the GOP state committeeman for Sarasota County, already has put 8,000 miles on his rental car crisscrossing the state to meet with the 256 members of the party's executive committee who vote in the race. Ziegler made sure the rental agreement was for unlimited miles.

“Enterprise is not going to be happy with me when I bring this bad boy back,” he joked. “8,000 miles you’re supposed to get two oil changes so hopefully this thing doesn’t light on fire.”

Ziegler toured one voter’s pawn shop and ate at a Chinese buffet in the Panhandle with another. He even visited one in the hospital. Some of the visits have lasted for hours.

“I’ve sat on their couches, I’ve visited them in the hospital, I’ve gone out to the dinner with them,” he said. “That’s how you win. It’s like Iowa.”

Ziegler’s pitch: Current party Chairman Blaise Ingoglia is stretched too thin as a businessman, state representative and party leader. The party needs a fulltime chairman, he says, one who has no potential conflict between raising money for his own campaigns and the party.

Ingoglia and his allies respond by pointing to the party’s dominance across Florida during the last election cycle. That success speaks for itself, they say. A raft of party leaders have lined up behind Ingoglia, including heavy hitters such as U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio.

If Ziegler wins it would be a big upset, but he’s optimistic.

“I have my vote count,” he said. “Even on a conservative estimate I think I have a great chance to win this but it is going to be a close race. Anytime you’re going against an incumbent it’s difficult.”

Qualifying ends for city election

The field for Sarasota’s March 14 city commission election will be set later this week.

Candidates have until Friday at noon to qualify to run for two at-large seats. Already six candidates have signed up, including an incumbent commissioner, a former commissioner, two neighborhood association leaders, a lawyer and a local businessman.

Events

— The Longboat Key Democratic Club meets Tuesday at 11:30 a.m. at Portofino Restaurant in the Longboat Key Club. James Joseph, the former ambassador to South Africa, will address the group. The cost is $30. For reservations call 941-383-9893.

— The Republican Club of South Sarasota County meets Wednesday at 11:30 a.m. at the Venice Gardens Civic Association. Sarasota County Supervisor of Elections Ron Turner will address the group. The event is free and open to the public.

— The Argus Foundation meets Thursday at 11:30 a.m. at the Sarasota Yacht Club. Florida Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, a likely candidate for governor in 2018, will address the group. Tickets are $40 for members and $45 for non-members. For reservations call 941-365-4886 or e-mail RSVP@Argusfoundation.org. Putnam will speak again Thursday at 6:30 p.m. at the Sarasota GOP meeting at the South Gate Community Center. The event is free and open to the public.