We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups listed in Extended Data Table 1 for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led the development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. Data from the RAPID-WATCH meridional overturning circulation monitoring project were generated with funding from the Natural Environment Research Council and are freely available from www.rapid.ac.uk/rapidmoc. We thank L. Jackson for the GloSea5 reanalysis data, and E. Frajka-Williams for the AMOC reconstruction from satellite altimetry and cable measurements. We also thank the personel of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's GFDL for investeing time and resources into the development of CM2.6, which was evaluated in this research. A.R. was funded by the Marie Curie Horizon2020 project CONCLIMA (grant number 703251). PIK is a Member of the Leibniz Association.

Reviewer information

Nature thanks S. Gulev, A. Schmittner and the other anonymous reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.