Molly Murray

The News Journal

In 2015, Delaware's population totaled 945,934.

The Delaware Population Consortium projected that it will take until 2025 to reach 1 million.

The Census Bureau released new data and details on the nation's growth hot spots on Thursday.

Delaware's population just can't seem to crack the 1 million mark.

Population growth in northern Delaware, where a majority of Delawareans live, is fueled by jobs, said Edward Ratledge, director of the University of Delaware's Center for Applied Demography & Survey Research.

The up-and-down job market there may help explain why population growth in the state between 2014 and 2015 was close to flat. The one bright spot in Delaware's slow march toward 1 million people was the 2.3 percent growth rate in Sussex County.

In 2015, Delaware's population totaled 945,934. The Delaware Population Consortium, a state agency, projected that it will take until 2025 to reach 1 million.

On Thursday, the Census Bureau released new data, along with details on the nation's growth hot spots.

Delaware was not among them.

The top-four fastest-growing counties by percentage of growth were in North Dakota, thanks to the booming oil shale extraction industry. Texas and the coastal areas of the Carolinas were also big population winners.

Even our regional metropolitan area suffered a bump on the population highway. Between July 2014 and July 2015, the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.Va., region surpassed Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington to become the sixth most populous metro area in the country.

"We're stagnant" when it comes to job growth, said A. Richard Heffron, president of the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce. "If you look at the state budget, it's flat. Although we have more people working ... those are probably people who were living here anyway. They didn't come here to work."

Delaware lost so many manufacturing jobs during the economic downturn that some economists projected it would take far longer for Delaware to recover from the recession than other states. Meanwhile, there are the more recent job losses from the restructuring at DuPont.

The good news is that manufacturing in Delaware is starting to inch up, Heffron said. And "we have been contacted by numerous" companies looking to employ some of DuPont's highly skilled workers.

But, he said, "we also have to find ways to grow."

There are two ways that populations rise: when births rates exceed the number of deaths and when people move into an area.

Sussex County has continued to grow thanks to an influx of retirees – some moving in from within Delaware and others from out-of-state.

"Sussex County rose almost exclusively by net migration," Ratledge said.

From 2006-2010, for instance, Sussex grew at a rate of 9.35 percent.

Then, when the housing bubble burst, homeowners found it difficult to sell in their home state and the number of retirees moving here slowed. The number of people streaming into Sussex slipped from about 4,500 annually to 3,200.

That number, at least according to the new census data, is beginning to climb again. Between July 2014 and 2015, the county's population grew by 4,774 people.

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During the boom times, Delaware's population was growing at a rate of about 12,000 to 13,000 people a year, Ratledge said. Then in 2008-2009, it dropped to an annual increase of about 8,000 people a year, he said. The total gain for 2014-2015 statewide was 9,966 people.

There are signs of growth. Throughout the state, real estate transfer taxes have been rising since the low point in 2010 and 2011.

In Sussex County, building permits also have increased over the last couple of years, said Chris Keeler, Sussex County's director of assessments.

And statewide, development projects going through the state's Preliminary Land Use review process are up.

State Planner Constance Holland said those projects include new subdivisions in Sussex County and a growth in businesses in Kent County.

In northern Delaware, county officials are working to create economic districts where job growth is the centerpiece and other areas where neighborhood preservation and infill of new housing will be the goal, as part of proposed revisions to the Unified Development Code, said George Haggerty, assistant general manager for land use for New Castle County.

Among the things that continue to draw people to the state, Holland said, are the lack of a sales tax and "people are really attracted to our towns. That's where the growth is really occurring."

Reach Molly Murray at (302) 463-3334 or mmurray@delawareonline.com.​