Throughout this offseason, we’ve brought you the results from quite a few mock drafts. From rookies, to dynasty, to redraft, we’re doing our best to ensure you’re prepared for your upcoming draft. Now that it’s August, we’re seeing ADP (average draft position) take its shape. While some will move due to injuries and depth chart changes, we wanted to bring in those who have the biggest effect on ADP otherwise.

Complete a mock draft in minutes with our free Draft Simulator >>

Some of your favorite analysts from Yahoo, CBS, FootballGuys, NFL.com and others joined me this weekend to do one last analyst mock draft. These are the analysts writing articles on their favorite sleepers, values, and busts. They are the ones who shift ADP in one direction or another. So if you’d like to find out which players are going to move before your draft, it’s best to learn from this draft right here, because these are the voices of the industry. If you’d like to find any of the participating analyst’s work, I’m going to include their Twitter handles and site affiliation at the bottom of this article.

Instead of tell you my opinion on their draft picks like I’ve done in previous mock draft articles, I’m going to compare every pick with their current ADP, letting you know the players who show the most significant change between the two and which direction you should expect that player to go. Keep in mind that I’ll be using a consensus ADP from a variety of sites. You should know that because it can vary from one site to another. After going through the draft picks, I’ll wrap up with a general overview of how the draft went down.

This was a 0.5 PPR league, with these starting requirements: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 W/R/T, 1 D/ST, 7 Bench Slots.

Rounds 1-2

PICK OVR ADP DIFF FRANCHISE SELECTION 1.01 1 1 0 Jake Ciely Johnson, David ARI RB 1.02 2 2 0 Sigmund Bloom Bell, Le’Veon PIT RB 1.03 3 4 -1 Mike Tagliere Brown, Antonio PIT WR 1.04 4 3 1 Jamey Eisenberg Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB 1.05 5 6 -1 Matt Franciscovich Beckham, Odell NYG WR 1.06 6 5 1 Brandon Marianne Lee Jones, Julio ATL WR 1.07 7 11 -4 Matt Harmon Green, A.J. CIN WR 1.08 8 9 -1 Brad Evans Gordon, Melvin LAC RB 1.09 9 7 2 Matt Kelley Evans, Mike TBB WR 1.10 10 8 2 Bob Harris McCoy, LeSean BUF RB 1.11 11 15 -4 Joe Dolan Nelson, Jordy GBP WR 1.12 12 12 0 Michael Moore Freeman, Devonta ATL RB 2.01 13 14 -1 Michael Moore Thomas, Michael NOS WR 2.02 14 13 1 Joe Dolan Ajayi, Jay MIA RB 2.03 15 23 -8 Bob Harris Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 2.04 16 19 -3 Matt Kelley Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 2.05 17 17 0 Brad Evans Howard, Jordan CHI RB 2.06 18 18 0 Matt Harmon Bryant, Dez DAL WR 2.07 19 21 -2 Brandon Marianne Lee Gurley, Todd LAR RB 2.08 20 10 10 Matt Franciscovich Murray, DeMarco TEN RB 2.09 21 24 -3 Jamey Eisenberg Cooper, Amari OAK WR 2.10 22 22 0 Mike Tagliere Fournette, Leonard JAC RB 2.11 23 44 -21 Sigmund Bloom Kelce, Travis KCC TE 2.12 24 34 -10 Jake Ciely Mixon, Joe CIN RB

So when going through every round, we want to take a look at the players with the biggest variation between their draft slot and ADP. In the first round, it’s clear that everyone is pretty in sync with the public, though Matt Harmon thought A.J. Green was worth reaching for, and it’s hard to disagree with Harmon considering Green’s fantasy finishes when healthy. LeSean McCoy and Mike Evans came as the biggest ‘values’ just two spots after their ADP.

The second round is mostly more of the same, but the two picks that stand out the most are both tight ends. Bob Harris reached to ensure he landed Rob Gronkowski and Sigmund Bloom reached to grab Travis Kelce. It’s conceivable that Kelce trends upward in his touchdown total this year, but would need to in order to live up to this draft position. As for Gronkowski, as long as he stays healthy, he’s got late-first value. The biggest value of the round went to Matt Franciscovich with his pick of DeMarco Murray at 2.08. While I don’t necessarily like Murray this year, getting him in the late second is solid value.

Rounds 3-4

PICK OVR ADP DIFF FRANCHISE SELECTION 3.01 25 29 -4 Jake Ciely Baldwin, Doug SEA WR 3.02 26 38 -12 Sigmund Bloom Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 3.03 27 35 -8 Mike Tagliere Watkins, Sammy BUF WR 3.04 28 26 2 Jamey Eisenberg Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR 3.05 29 32 -3 Matt Franciscovich Allen, Keenan LAC WR 3.06 30 30 0 Brandon Marianne Lee Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB 3.07 31 31 0 Matt Harmon Robinson, Allen JAC WR 3.08 32 36 -4 Brad Evans Pryor, Terrelle WAS WR 3.09 33 47 -14 Matt Kelley Montgomery, Ty GBP RB 3.10 34 59 -25 Bob Harris Cook, Dalvin MIN RB 3.11 35 37 -2 Joe Dolan Jeffery, Alshon PHI WR 3.12 36 25 11 Michael Moore Cooks, Brandin NEP WR 4.01 37 27 10 Michael Moore Miller, Lamar HOU RB 4.02 38 58 -20 Joe Dolan Bryant, Martavis PIT WR 4.03 39 80 -41 Bob Harris Tate, Golden DET WR 4.04 40 94 -54 Matt Kelley Snead, Willie NOS WR 4.05 41 52 -11 Brad Evans Olsen, Greg CAR TE 4.06 42 33 9 Matt Harmon McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB 4.07 43 49 -6 Brandon Marianne Lee Landry, Jarvis MIA WR 4.08 44 54 -10 Matt Franciscovich Crabtree, Michael OAK WR 4.09 45 42 3 Jamey Eisenberg Adams, Davante GBP WR 4.10 46 16 30 Mike Tagliere Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 4.11 47 20 27 Sigmund Bloom Lynch, Marshawn OAK RB 4.12 48 79 -31 Jake Ciely Crowder, Jamison WAS WR

This is where drafts start to change quite a bit, where you’re left reaching for players that you want, rather than drafting along with the current ADP. There were 10 players in rounds 3 and 4 that were drafted more than eight spots higher than their current ADP. The biggest reach in the third round was when Bob Harris selected Dalvin Cook at 3.10, which might have something to do with the quotes that came out of Vikings camp last weekend. Head coach Mike Zimmer said he looks great, while he has only seen Latavius Murray on tape. Michael Moore took advantage of some of the reaches and snagged Brandin Cooks at the end of the third, 11 spots after his current ADP. While some are having trouble finding targets for him in New England, you don’t trade a first and third round pick if you aren’t going to target a wide receiver. It was great value among this group.

Just one round after reaching 21 picks for Kelce, Bloom snagged Marshawn Lynch 27 spots after his current ADP, which seems quite high at No. 20 overall. Taking him at the end of the fourth comes with much less risk than taking him at the start of the third. Most analysts wait at the quarterback position, but I’ve stated all offseason that if I’m forced to choose between someone like Aaron Rodgers and timeshare running backs, I’ll go Rodgers. Getting him at No. 46 overall, I was able to get the biggest value in the round.

Rounds 5-8

PICK OVR ADP DIFF FRANCHISE SELECTION 5.01 49 70 -21 Jake Ciely Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR 5.02 50 28 22 Sigmund Bloom Brady, Tom NEP QB 5.03 51 39 12 Mike Tagliere Hyde, Carlos SFO RB 5.04 52 57 -5 Jamey Eisenberg Gillislee, Mike NEP RB 5.05 53 68 -15 Matt Franciscovich Diggs, Stefon MIN WR 5.06 54 43 11 Brandon Marianne Lee Brees, Drew NOS QB 5.07 55 53 2 Matt Harmon Hill, Tyreek KCC WR 5.08 56 76 -20 Brad Evans Edelman, Julian NEP WR 5.09 57 64 -7 Matt Kelley Coleman, Tevin ATL RB 5.10 58 69 -11 Bob Harris Abdullah, Ameer DET RB 5.11 59 104 -45 Joe Dolan Woodhead, Danny BAL RB 5.12 60 88 -28 Michael Moore Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 6.01 61 61 0 Michael Moore Graham, Jimmy SEA TE 6.02 62 48 14 Joe Dolan Reed, Jordan WAS TE 6.03 63 112 -49 Bob Harris Garcon, Pierre SFO WR 6.04 64 82 -18 Matt Kelley Benjamin, Kelvin CAR WR 6.05 65 113 -48 Brad Evans Parker, DeVante MIA WR 6.06 66 74 -8 Matt Harmon Lacy, Eddie SEA RB 6.07 67 41 26 Brandon Marianne Lee Anderson, C.J. DEN RB 6.08 68 99 -31 Matt Franciscovich Perine, Samaje WAS RB 6.09 69 131 -62 Jamey Eisenberg Brown, John ARI WR 6.10 70 107 -37 Mike Tagliere Maclin, Jeremy BAL WR 6.11 71 85 -14 Sigmund Bloom Moncrief, Donte IND WR 6.12 72 87 -15 Jake Ciely Powell, Bilal NYJ RB 7.01 73 72 1 Jake Ciely Eifert, Tyler CIN TE 7.02 74 73 1 Sigmund Bloom Marshall, Brandon NYG WR 7.03 75 40 35 Mike Tagliere Ware, Spencer KCC RB 7.04 76 65 11 Jamey Eisenberg Ingram, Mark NOS RB 7.05 77 55 22 Matt Franciscovich Peterson, Adrian NOS RB 7.06 78 109 -31 Brandon Marianne Lee Meredith, Cameron CHI WR 7.07 79 84 -5 Matt Harmon Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE 7.08 80 63 17 Brad Evans Blount, LeGarrette PHI RB 7.09 81 81 0 Matt Kelley Gore, Frank IND RB 7.10 82 137 -55 Bob Harris Williams, Tyrell LAC WR 7.11 83 106 -23 Joe Dolan Jackson, DeSean TBB WR 7.12 84 130 -46 Michael Moore Riddick, Theo DET RB 8.01 85 45 40 Michael Moore Luck, Andrew IND QB 8.02 86 142 -56 Joe Dolan Johnson, Duke CLE RB 8.03 87 120 -33 Bob Harris Decker, Eric TEN WR 8.04 88 129 -41 Matt Kelley West, Terrance BAL RB 8.05 89 71 18 Brad Evans Mariota, Marcus TEN QB 8.06 90 164 -74 Matt Harmon White, James NEP RB 8.07 91 135 -44 Brandon Marianne Lee Matthews, Rishard TEN WR 8.08 92 133 -41 Matt Franciscovich Prosise, C.J. SEA RB 8.09 93 77 16 Jamey Eisenberg Perkins, Paul NYG RB 8.10 94 97 -3 Mike Tagliere Bennett, Martellus GBP TE 8.11 95 86 9 Sigmund Bloom Henry, Derrick TEN RB 8.12 96 111 -15 Jake Ciely Hunt, Kareem KCC RB

This is the area of the draft you need to start paying attention to, as these are the players who’ll start moving significantly as the season approaches. All offseason, I’ve stated that James White continues to be undervalued, but not in this draft. Harmon took him at pick 8.06, which is the earliest I’ve seen him go. I like White, but taking him before someone like Paul Perkins is questionable. What you should take notice of, though, is that White should (and will) be moving up boards. Another player who was taken more than 60 spots earlier than his ADP (five rounds) was John Brown, when Jamey Eisenberg selected him at 6.09. If you’ve read anything I’ve done or listened to any podcast we’ve recorded, you’d know that Brown is fantasy football’s best kept secret. It’s important to note that Eisenberg picked him right in front of me, as I had him queued up. Instead, I took my second favorite mid-round target in Jeremy Maclin.

The player who fell furthest in this range was Andrew Luck, which was likely due to the news about the possibility of him not being ready for Week 1. If that news turns out to be nothing, Moore will be in good shape taking Luck at 8.01. The next two non-quarterback values were both running backs, as I selected Spencer Ware at 7.03 and Brandon Marianne Lee selected C.J. Anderson at 6.07. It was odd to see running backs fall as far as they did, and the risk is well worth the reward at this stage.

Rounds 9-12

PICK OVR ADP DIFF FRANCHISE SELECTION 9.01 97 140 -43 Jake Ciely Williams, Jamaal GBP RB 9.02 98 51 47 Sigmund Bloom Martin, Doug TBB RB 9.03 99 122 -23 Mike Tagliere Cobb, Randall GBP WR 9.04 100 116 -16 Jamey Eisenberg Ertz, Zach PHI TE 9.05 101 154 -53 Matt Franciscovich Ebron, Eric DET TE 9.06 102 105 -3 Brandon Marianne Lee Henry, Hunter LAC TE 9.07 103 155 -52 Matt Harmon Britt, Kenny CLE WR 9.08 104 151 -47 Brad Evans Rodgers, Jacquizz TBB RB 9.09 105 145 -40 Matt Kelley Enunwa, Quincy NYJ WR 9.10 106 172 -66 Bob Harris Wallace, Mike BAL WR 9.11 107 150 -43 Joe Dolan Thielen, Adam MIN WR 9.12 108 119 -11 Michael Moore Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB 10.01 109 125 -16 Michael Moore Matthews, Jordan PHI WR 10.02 110 62 48 Joe Dolan Walker, Delanie TEN TE 10.03 111 115 -4 Bob Harris Kelley, Rob WAS RB 10.04 112 46 66 Matt Kelley Wilson, Russell SEA QB 10.05 113 67 46 Brad Evans Davis, Corey TEN WR 10.06 114 165 -51 Matt Harmon Bernard, Giovani CIN RB 10.07 115 246 -131 Brandon Marianne Lee Kupp, Cooper LAR WR 10.08 116 50 66 Matt Franciscovich Ryan, Matt ATL QB 10.09 117 103 14 Jamey Eisenberg Coleman, Corey CLE WR 10.10 118 124 -6 Mike Tagliere Forte, Matt NYJ RB 10.11 119 149 -30 Sigmund Bloom Jones, Marvin DET WR 10.12 120 144 -24 Jake Ciely White, Kevin CHI WR 11.01 121 206 -85 Jake Ciely Ginn Jr., Ted NOS WR 11.02 122 160 -38 Sigmund Bloom Perriman, Breshad BAL WR 11.03 123 171 -48 Mike Tagliere Doctson, Josh WAS WR 11.04 124 60 64 Jamey Eisenberg Winston, Jameis TBB QB 11.05 125 134 -9 Matt Franciscovich Rawls, Thomas SEA RB 11.06 126 127 -1 Brandon Marianne Lee Doyle, Jack IND TE 11.07 127 208 -81 Matt Harmon McFadden, Darren DAL RB 11.08 128 190 -62 Brad Evans Jones, Zay BUF WR 11.09 129 227 -98 Matt Kelley Beasley, Cole DAL WR 11.10 130 89 41 Bob Harris Cousins, Kirk WAS QB 11.11 131 176 -45 Joe Dolan Williams, Joe SFO RB 11.12 132 66 66 Michael Moore Prescott, Dak DAL QB 12.01 133 204 -71 Michael Moore Hooper, Austin ATL TE 12.02 134 56 78 Joe Dolan Newton, Cam CAR QB 12.03 135 156 -21 Bob Harris Sproles, Darren PHI RB 12.04 136 167 -31 Matt Kelley Witten, Jason DAL TE 12.05 137 186 -49 Brad Evans Burkhead, Rex NEP RB 12.06 138 138 0 Matt Harmon Taylor, Tyrod BUF QB 12.07 139 179 -40 Brandon Marianne Lee Williams, Jonathan BUF RB 12.08 140 211 -71 Matt Franciscovich Stills, Kenny MIA WR 12.09 141 163 -22 Jamey Eisenberg Shepard, Sterling NYG WR 12.10 142 123 19 Mike Tagliere Charles, Jamaal DEN RB 12.11 143 75 68 Sigmund Bloom Carr, Derek OAK QB 12.12 144 233 -89 Jake Ciely Lee, Marqise JAC WR

This is where there is almost zero correlation between ADP and draft picks, as this is the area where most are taking their favorite sleepers in the draft because most starting lineups are filled. With that being said, it’s important to note these players who could potentially fall in drafts, as well as those who should climb in drafts. The biggest reach in this range was Marianne Lee’s pick of Cooper Kupp, as it’s one that I don’t think anyone expected. His current ADP sits at 246, which is undrafted in a majority of leagues, but Marianne Lee liked him enough to reach for him at 10.07. There have been glowing reports about his hands from camp and that they believe he can make an impact almost immediately. Matt Kelley also reached quite a bit to secure Cole Beasley, who flashed a bit last season, finishing as the No. 39 wide receiver. He was the 59th wide receiver off the board here, so it may not seem like a big reach after all.

The players who fell the furthest in this range were basically all quarterbacks, though Joe Dolan got the biggest discount on Cam Newton, who fell 78 spots lower than his ADP. Outside of quarterbacks, there were others who fell, including Dolan’s pick of Delanie Walker at 10.02, Bloom’s pick of Doug Martin at 9.02, and Brad Evans’ pick of Corey Davis at 10.05. It’s important to note that Davis signed his rookie deal just one day before this draft and it was reported that he immediately took over as the ‘X’ receiver in Titans practice.

Rounds 13-16

PICK OVR ADP DIFF FRANCHISE SELECTION 13.01 145 108 37 Jake Ciely Stafford, Matthew DET QB 13.02 146 170 -24 Sigmund Bloom Lockett, Tyler SEA WR 13.03 147 241 -94 Mike Tagliere Austin, Tavon LAR WR 13.04 148 92 56 Jamey Eisenberg Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB 13.05 149 203 -54 Matt Franciscovich Washington, DeAndre OAK RB 13.06 150 157 -7 Brandon Marianne Lee Ross, John CIN WR 13.07 151 243 -92 Matt Harmon Woods, Robert LAR WR 13.08 152 184 -32 Brad Evans Richard, Jalen OAK RB 13.09 153 195 -42 Matt Kelley Kamara, Alvin NOS RB 13.10 154 118 36 Bob Harris Dalton, Andy CIN QB 13.11 155 232 -77 Joe Dolan Foreman, D’Onta HOU RB 13.12 156 158 -2 Michael Moore Gabriel, Taylor ATL WR 14.01 157 281 -124 Michael Moore Vereen, Shane NYG RB 14.02 158 237 -79 Joe Dolan McNichols, Jeremy TBB RB 14.03 159 244 -85 Bob Harris Conley, Chris KCC WR 14.04 160 250 -90 Matt Kelley Funchess, Devin CAR WR 14.05 161 199 -38 Brad Evans Fuller, Will HOU WR 14.06 162 269 -107 Matt Harmon Aiken, Kamar IND WR 14.07 163 130 33 Brandon Marianne Lee Hill, Jeremy CIN RB 14.08 164 150 14 Matt Franciscovich Brate, Cameron TBB TE 14.09 165 93 72 Jamey Eisenberg Murray, Latavius MIN RB 14.10 166 174 -8 Mike Tagliere Fleener, Coby NOS TE 14.11 167 204 -37 Sigmund Bloom Conner, James PIT RB 14.12 168 197 -29 Jake Ciely Booker, Devontae DEN RB 15.01 – – – Jake Ciely Broncos, Denver DEN Def 15.02 170 192 -22 Sigmund Bloom Sanu, Mohamed ATL WR 15.03 – – – Mike Tagliere Chiefs, Kansas City KCC Def 15.04 – – – Jamey Eisenberg Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def 15.05 173 339 -166 Matt Franciscovich Jones, Aaron GBP RB 15.06 – – – Brandon Marianne Lee Texans, Houston HOU Def 15.07 175 1000 -825 Matt Harmon Henderson, De’Angelo DEN RB 15.08 – – – Brad Evans Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def 15.09 – – – Matt Kelley Bills, Buffalo BUF Def 15.10 178 170 8 Bob Harris Thomas, Julius MIA TE 15.11 179 314 -135 Joe Dolan Goodwin, Marquise SFO WR 15.12 – – – Michael Moore Patriots, New England NEP Def 16.01 181 183 -2 Michael Moore Engram, Evan NYG TE 16.02 – – – Joe Dolan Eagles, Philadelphia PHI Def 16.03 – – – Bob Harris Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def 16.04 184 1000 -816 Matt Kelley Janis, Jeff GBP WR 16.05 185 1000 -815 Brad Evans Zenner, Zach DET RB 16.06 – – – Matt Harmon Giants, New York NYG Def 16.07 187 261 -74 Brandon Marianne Lee Smith-Schuster, JuJu PIT WR 16.08 – – – Matt Franciscovich Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def 16.09 189 209 -20 Jamey Eisenberg Smallwood, Wendell PHI RB 16.10 190 266 -76 Mike Tagliere Richardson, Paul SEA WR 16.11 – – – Sigmund Bloom Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC Def 16.12 192 334 -142 Jake Ciely Seferian-Jenkins, Austin NYJ TE

Keeping the defenses out of the conversation, there were just six players who were drafted within 20 spots of their current ADP in this range. There were just three players who were drafted without an ADP in our database, and they were Harmon’s pick of De’Angelo Henderson, Kelley’s pick of Jeff Janis, and Evans’ pick of Zach Zenner. Jake Ciely’s final pick of Austin Seferian-Jenkins is extremely noteworthy, as there has been a lot of buzz around him the last week, saying he’s finally “got it.” The one reach that didn’t shock me in this range was Kelley’s pick of Devin Funchess, who has been consistently undervalued this offseason. He’s someone you can draft in the late rounds, see what you have in the first few weeks and cut bait if you need to, but you might just have yourself a top 40 wide receiver.

The player who fell the furthest in this range was Latavius Murray, who Eisenberg drafted at 14.09, likely due to the news I talked about earlier. He’s likely to fall into this range in most sharp drafts. Marianne Lee selected Jeremy Hill at 14.07, a fall of 33 picks from his ADP, likely due to the hype that Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard have received in training camp. It’s hard to envision a big role for him this year without injuries in front of him, especially after the way he’s played the last two years.

What We Learned

As expected, quarterbacks fell down the draft board. What was a surprise is seeing running backs like C.J. Anderson, Spencer Ware, and Paul Perkins fall as far as they did. One thing that stands out the most to me is this: When someone says they drafted John Brown (or someone in that range) in the sixth round, most people raise their eyebrows and say, “Wow, that’s early!” But is it really? In this draft, 37 receivers were drafted in the first six rounds, which makes me think that he could go as early as the fifth round. Take out what round a player was drafted in and ask yourself, “How many went before him at his position?” This will give you the true value of your draft pick, because every draft is different. Keep an eye on ADP, know your league’s tendencies and take advantage when they start to overvalue a position. Don’t be one of the cool kids – you should zig while everyone else zags.

Find all of the wonderful analysts who participated in the draft on Twitter by simply clicking on their name below:

Jake Ciely – RotoExperts

Sigmund Bloom – Footballguys

Jamey Eisenberg – CBS

Matt Franciscovich – NFL

Brandon Marianne Lee – HerFantasyFootball and Sirius XM

Matt Harmon – NFL and Footballguys

Brad Evans – Yahoo

Matt Kelley – RotoUnderworld

Bob Harris – Football Diehards

Joe Dolan – Fantasy Guru

Michael Moore – PFF

Myself – FantasyPros

Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS

Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.