With the news that the NHL will begin to field expansion bids, the first thought on everyone’s mind was: where will the teams be? The next thought, inevitably was, who will be on the roster? The expansion teams are bound to get help from a high pick in the draft, but the majority of their rosters will come from the rosters of current NHL teams.

The last time the NHL expanded was in 2000, and they held a draft to fill the rosters of the Minnesota Wild and Columbus Blue Jackets. The rules for protecting players on existing teams were the following:

Choose to protect either nine forwards, five defensemen, and one goalie or seven forwards, three defensemen, and two goalies If protecting one goalie, there is no experience requirement for the goalie left unprotected. If protecting two goalies, they must leave one goalie unprotected who played in at least 10 games the prior season, or 25 combined games over the past two seasons Teams must leave one defenseman and two forwards unprotected who played 40 NHL games the prior season, or 70 combined games over the prior two seasons Players on entry-level contracts are automatically exempt, and every existing team will have exactly two players selected

The same rules apply for the exercise below. One additional wrinkle/gray area with no precedent is the presence of NTC/NMCs. For simplicity purposes, I allowed teams to leave players who had some type of clause to be unprotected, and marked them with asterisks.

The results of the expansion draft that occurs in a few years will likely be very similar to the below, but some automatically exempt players on ELCs will be protected, and protected veterans will either be unprotected or retired.

Anaheim Ducks

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Jakob Silfverberg, Ryan Kesler, Andrew Cogliano, Patrick Maroon, Carl Hagelin, Rickard Rakell, Chris Stewart

D: Cam Fowler, Sami Vatanen, Kevin Bieksa, Simon Despres

G: Frederik Andersen

Notable Exempt: Hampus Lindholm, John Gibson, Jiri Sekac

Notable Unprotected: Nate Thompson, Tim Jackman, Shawn Horcoff, Clayton Stoner, Anton Khudobin

The Ducks only protect four defensemen in order to be compliant with the unprotected defenseman requirement. They narrowly avoided a problem with John Gibson entering the last year of his ELC. In real expansion, the Ducks will need to make a decision between Andersen and Gibson.

Arizona Coyotes

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Shane Doan, Martin Hanzal, Mikkel Boedker, Antoine Vermette, Brad Richardson, Boyd Gordon, Steve Downie, Joe Vitale, Craig Cunningham

D: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Zbynek Michalek, Michael Stone, Brandon Gormley, Klas Dahlbeck

G: Mike Smith

Notable Exempt: Tobias Rieder, Connor Murphy

Notable Unprotected: John Scott, Kyle Chipchura, Nicklas Grossmann, Chris Pronger, Anders Lindback

Boston Bruins

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, Jimmy Hayes, Loui Eriksson, Brad Marchand, Matt Beleskey, Brett Connolly, Ryan Spooner, Seth Griffith

D: Zdeno Chara, Dennis Seidenberg, Torey Krug, Kevan Miller, Adam McQuaid

G: Tuukka Rask

Notable Exempt: David Pastrnak, Malcolm Subban

Notable Unprotected: Zac Rinaldo, Max Talbot, Alexander Khokhlachev, Chris Kelly, Matt Irwin, Joe Morrow, Jeremy Smith

Similar to the Ducks, the Bruins narrowly avoid a goalie conundrum with Malcolm Subban entering the last year of his ELC.

Buffalo Sabres

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Matt Moulson, Tyler Ennis, Ryan O’Reilly, Evander Kane, Marcus Foligno, Brian Gionta, Nicolas Deslauriers, Johan Larsson, Jame McGinn

D: Zach Bogosian, Josh Gorges, Mark Pysyk, Matt Donovan, Carlo Colaiacovo

G: Robin Lehner

Notable Exempt: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Ristolainen, Zemgus Girgensons

Notable Unprotected: David Legwand, Cody McCormick, Mike Weber, Chad Johnson

The Sabres would likely rather keep Mike Weber ahead of Donovan or Colaiacovo, but neither meet the NHL games played requirement. If the Sabres want to keep him, they could sign a free agent defenseman who meets the requirements and immediately leave him unprotected.

Calgary Flames

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Jiri Hudler, Mikael Backlund, Michael Frolik, Joe Colborne, Drew Shore, Paul Byron, Lance Bouma, David Jones, Bill Arnold

D: Dougie Hamilton, Mark Giordano, TJ Brodie, Kris Russell, Dennis Wideman

G: Jonas Hiller

Notable Exempt: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan

Notable Unprotected: Matt Stajan, Mason Raymond, Brandon Bollig, Ladislav Smid, Deryk Engelland, Karri Ramo

Carolina Hurricanes

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Jordan Staal, Eric Staal, Jeff Skinner, Nathan Gerbe, Jay McClement, Riley Nash, Andrej Nestrasil, Zach Boychuk, Justin Shugg

D: Justin Faulk, James Wisniewski, Ron Hainsey, Michal Jordan, Rasmus Rissanen

G: Eddie Lack

Notable Exempt: Elias Lindholm, Victor Rask, Ryan Murphy

Notable Unprotected: Brad Malone, Chris Terry, John-Michael Liles, Cam Ward*

Cam Ward has been the Hurricanes’ starter for the last nine seasons, but it’s time to move on. Eddie Lack is the starter of the future, and instead of forsaking two forwards and two defensemen, they should leave Ward unprotected.

Chicago Blackhawks

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa, Andrew Shaw, Ryan Garbutt, Artem Anisimov, Marcus Kruger, Kris Versteeg, Bryan Bickell

D: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Trevor Daley,

G: Corey Crawford

Notable Exempt: Teuvo Teravainen, Marko Dano

Notable Unprotected: Joakim Nordstrom, Viktor Tikhonov, Andrew Desjardins, Jeremy Morin, David Rundblad, Scott Darling

Colorado Avalanche

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay, Carl Soderberg, Mikhail Grigorenko, Blake Comeau, John Mitchell, Joey Hishon

D: Erik Johnson, Tyson Barrie, Francois Beauchemin, Nick Holden, Zach Redmond

G: Semyon Varlamov

Notable Exempt: Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Zadorov

Notable Unprotected: Cody McLeod, Patrick Bordeleau, Jesse Winchester, Brad Stuart, Nate Guenin, Calvin Pickard

The Avalanche are forced to give up a valuable prospect in goaltender Calvin Pickard, who had a .932 save percentage in 16 games with the Avalanche last season. The more likely scenario is that they trade him for an asset instead of leaving him unprotected. It wouldn’t make sense for the Avalanche to sacrifice two forwards and two defensemen just to protect him.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Protected

F: Brandon Saad, Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Johansen, Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell, Cam Atkinson, Matt Calvert, Jared Boll, Gregory Campbell

D: David Savard, Fedor Tyutin, Jack Johnson, Kevin Connauton, Cody Goloubef

G: Sergei Bobrovsky

Notable Exempt: Boone Jenner, Ryan Murray, Alexander Wennberg

Notable Unprotected: Rene Bourque, David Clarkson*, Dalton Prout, Curtis McElhinney

Dallas Stars

Protected

F: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Patrick Sharp, Jason Spezza, Ales Hemsky, Antoine Roussel, Cody Eakin, Vernon Fiddler, Colton Sceviour

D: Alex Goligoski, John Klingberg, Jason Demers, Jamie Oleksiak, Johnny Oduya

G: Antti Niemi

Notable Exempt: Valeri Nichushkin

Notable Unprotected: Travis Moen, Patrick Eaves, Jordie Benn, Jyrki Jokipakka, Patrik Nemeth Kari Lehtonen*

Detroit Red Wings

Protected

F: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar, Tomas Jurco, Johan Franzen, Darren Helm, Riley Sheahan, Teemu Pulkkinen

D: Niklas Kronwall, Mike Green, Danny DeKeyser, Jonathan Ericsson, Brendan Smith

G: Petr Mrazek

Notable Exempt: none

Notable Unprotected: Brad Richards, Drew Miller, Justin Abdelkader, Kyle Quincey, Matt Lashoff, Jakub Kindl, Jimmy Howard*

The Red Wings will have a big decision to make regarding their goaltending. Jimmy Howard is still a quality starting goalie, but Petr Mrazek was the one that got the call in the playoffs. He appears to be the real deal, and the Red Wings can’t afford to let him go. A trade of Howard before the expansion draft is probably the best option for GM Ken Holland.

Edmonton Oilers

Protected

F: Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Benoit Pouliot, Nail Yakupov, Anton Lander, Mark Letestu, Matt Hendricks, Lauri Korpikoski

D: Andrej Sekera, Mark Fayne, Justin Schultz, Eric Gryba, Andrew Ference

G: Cam Talbot

Notable Exempt: Connor McDavid, Griffin Reinhart, Oscar Klefbom

Notable Unprotected: Luke Gazdic, Teddy Purcell, Nikita Nikitin, Ben Scrivens

Purcell and Nikitin are both valuable NHL players, but are overpaid for what they bring to the table. The Oilers could leave them unprotected in the hopes that an expansion team will take them off their hands, looking for skill regardless of cost.

Florida Panthers

Protected

F: Nick Bjugstad, Jonathan Huberdeau, Jaromir Jagr, Reilly Smith, Brandon Pirri, Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Quinton Howden, Gregg McKegg

D: Brian Campbell, Dmitri Kulikov, Erik Gudbranson, Willie Mitchell, Alex Petrovic

G: Roberto Luongo

Notable Exempt: Aaron Ekblad, Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck

Notable Unprotected: Shawn Thornton, Dave Bolland, Marc Savard, Dylan Olsen, Al Montoya

Bolland’s contract is one that falls under the category of “toxic”. He has a cap hit of $5.5M for four more seasons but is a third line player that’s almost guaranteed to miss time. They can hope an expansion team takes him off their hands, but he’s so overpaid that Las Vegas/Seattle may not even bother.

LA Kings

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Marian Gaborik, Tyler Toffoli, Tanner Pearson, Dwight King, Milan Lucic, Kyle Clifford, Trevor Lewis

D: Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin, Matt Greene, Alec Martinez, Brayden McNabb

G: Jonathan Quick

Notable Exempt: none

Notable Unprotected: Dustin Brown, Jordan Nolan, Jamie McBain, Jhonas Enroth

Yes, that two-time Stanley Cup winning captain Dustin Brown. Brown has posted 27 points in each of the last two seasons after averaging 55 over the previous five seasons. His last two seasons have been the worst of his career since 2005-06, his second season in the league. He carries a cap hit of $5.75M over the next seven years, and is owed $39.75M in real dollars in that time span.

Brown’s physical style and modest size mean things are likely only going to get worse in the future, not unlike the swift decline of his former teammate Mike Richards. He may not even be selected if left unprotected, his contract is that much of a burden. However, Dean Lombardi has proved himself a smooth a cap operator in the past, and may roll the dice with this move.

Minnesota Wild

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville, Thomas Vanek, Charlie Coyle, Mikael Granlund, Nino Niederreiter, Jason Zucker, Justin Fontaine

D: Ryan Suter, Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, Marco Scandella, Christian Folin

G: Devan Dubnyk

Notable Exempt: Matt Dumba

Notable Unprotected: Ryan Carter, Erik Haula, Tyson Strachan, Nate Prosser, Niklas Backstrom, Darcy Kuemper

Montreal Canadiens

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec, Brendan Gallagher, Alex Galchenyuk, Lars Eller, Zack Kassian, Devante Smith-Pelley, David Desharnais, Dale Weise

D: PK Subban, Andrei Markov, Jeff Petry, Nathan Beaulieu, Tom Gilbert

G: Carey Price

Notable Exempt: Jacob de la Rose

Notable Unprotected: Torrey Mitchell, Brian Flynn, Alexei Emelin*, Mark Barberio, Dustin Tokarski

Nashville Predators

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: James Neal, Mike Ribeiro, Colin Wilson, Craig Smith, Calle Jarnkrok, Steve Moses, Mike Fisher, Cody Hodgson, Eric Nystrom

D: Shea Weber, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis, Barret Jackman

G: Pekka Rinne

Notable Exempt: Seth Jones, Filip Forsberg

Notable Unprotected: Gabriel Bourque, Paul Gaustad, Victor Bartley, Carter Hutton

New Jersey Devils

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Mike Cammalleri, Travis Zajac, Patrik Elias, Adam Henrique, Kyle Palmieri, Jacob Josefson, Stefan Matteau, Stephen Gionta, Dainius Zubrus

D: Andy Greene, Adam Larsson, Eric Gelinas, Seth Helgeson, Brandon Burlon

G: Corey Schneider

Notable Exempt: Damon Severson, Jon Merrill

Notable Unprotected: Tuomo Ruutu, Jordin Tootoo, Ryane Clowe, John Moore, Keith Kinkaid

John Moore is much more valuable than Helgeson or Burlon to the Devils, but he is the only defenseman who fulfills the games played requirement that is expendable. Greene, Larsson, and Gelinas are all very solid players that shouldn’t be thrown away.

An alternate option for the Devils would be to sign a cheap free agent defenseman who fits the requirements and immediately make him available in lieu of Moore.

New York Islanders

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo, Brock Nelson, Frans Nielsen, Anders Lee, Cal Clutterbuck, Nikolai Kulemin, Mikhail Grabovski, Casey Cizikas

D: Travis Hamonic, Johnny Boychuk, Nick Leddy, Calvin de Haan, Thomas Hickey

G: Jaroslav Halak

Notable Exempt: Ryan Strome

Notable Unprotected: Matt Martin, Michael Grabner, Brian Strait, Thomas Greiss

New York Rangers

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Rick Nash, Derek Stepan, Derrick Brassard, Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider, JT Miller, Emerson Etem, Jesper Fast, Viktor Stalberg

D: Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi, Marc Staal, Keith Yandle, Kevin Klein

G: Henrik Lundqvist

Notable Exempt: Kevin Hayes

Notable Unprotected: Dominic Moore, Tanner Glass, Brian Gibbons, Raphael Diaz, Dan Boyle, Antti Raanta

Up against the salary cap with Derek Stepan deserving a big raise, the Rangers could opt to get creative with the defensemen they protect. They pay those five defensemen a lot, and may be better off dealing one for futures, and more importantly, cap relief.

Ottawa Senators

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Bobby Ryan, Mark Stone, Clarke MacArthur, Kyle Turris, Mike Hoffman, Mika Zibanejad, Alex Chiasson, Milan Michalek, J-G Pageau

D: Erik Karlsson, Marc Methot, Patrick Wiercioch, Jared Cowen, Mark Borowiecki

G: Andrew Hammond

Notable Exempt: Curtis Lazar, Cody Ceci

Notable Unprotected: Chris Neil, Zack Smith, Colin Greening, Chris Phillips, Craig Anderson

Senators GM Bryan Murray will be faced with a difficult goaltending situation with expansion. Andrew Hammond was unreal in 2015, but has just 25 NHL games to his name. Anderson, on the other hand, has proven to be a consistently solid NHL starter. In this scenario, they opt for Hammond, who is seven years younger.

Philadelphia Flyers

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Sean Couturier, Brayden Schenn, Matt Read, Michael Raffl, Sam Gagner, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare

D: Mark Streit, Luke Schenn, Michael Del Zotto, Evgeni Medvedev, Radko Gudas

G: Steve Mason

Notable Exempt: none

Notable Unprotected: Vinny Lecavalier*, RJ Umberger*, Ryan White, Chris VandeVelde, Andrew MacDonald, Nick Schultz, Michal Neuvirth

More than any existing team, the expansion franchises could do the Flyers a huge favor by taking on some of their dead weight contracts. Lecavalier has made it clear that he doesn’t want to play in Philadelphia, and a team could take a flier on him based on his name and hope he can bounce back with more playing time.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, Patric Hornqvist, David Perron, Chris Kunitz, Beau Bennett, Brandon Sutter, Tom Kuhnhackl

D: Kris Letang, Ian Cole, Ben Lovejoy, Tim Erixon, Brian Dumoulin

G: Marc-Andre Fleury

Notable Exempt: Derrick Pouliot, Olli Maatta, Sergei Plotnikov

Notable Unprotected: Pascal Dupuis, free agent F, Rob Scuderi, Jeff Zatkoff

The Penguins only have nine forwards in the organization that meet the NHL games played requirement, so the selection of protected forwards was easy. Dupuis ends up being the odd-man-out, but it’s unlikely the Penguins would consider any of the other forwards expendable, so they would likely sign a free agent forward to meet eligibility and then leave him unprotected.

San Jose Sharks

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Tommy Wingels, Joel Ward, Melker Karlsson, Raffi Torres, Daniil Tarasov

D: Brent Burns, Paul Martin, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Justin Braun, Brendan Dillon

G: Martin Jones

Notable Exempt: Tomas Hertl, Matt Nieto, Chris Tierney, Mirco Mueller

Notable Unprotected: Mike Brown, Ben Smith, free agent D, Alex Stalock

The Sharks only have six defensemen in the organization that meet the games played requirement, and one is exempt (Mueller). The remaining five are all the team would not want to give away for nothing, so the most likely option for them is to sign a free agent defenseman and leave him unprotected.

St. Louis Blues

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: David Backes, Vladimir Tarasenko, Alex Steen, Patrik Berglund, Paul Stastny, Jaden Schwartz, Troy Brouwer, Steve Ott, Kyle Brodziak

D: Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk, Jay Bouwmeester, Carl Gunnarsson, Chris Butler

G: Brian Elliott

Notable Exempt: Dmitrij Jaskin, Jori Lehtera

Notable Unprotected: Ryan Reaves, Jordan Caron, Robert Bortuzzo, Andre Benoit, Jake Allen

Jake Allen has been the goalie-in-waiting in St. Louis for awhile, but has not proven he’s a dependable starting goaltender yet. The Blues won’t want to give him up, but wouldn’t want to give up the more reliable Brian Elliott as well in case Allen falters.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Steven Stamkos, Tyler Johnson, Ryan Callahan, Alex Killorn, Ondrej Palat, Valtteri Filppula, Brian Boyle, Vladislav Namestnikov

D: Victor Hedman, Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn, Jason Garrison, Andrej Sustr

G: Ben Bishop

Notable Exempt: Jonathan Drouin, Nikita Kucherov, Cedric Paquette, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Nikita Nesterov

Notable Unprotected: JT Brown, Erik Condra, Matt Carle, Mattias Ohlund, free agent G

Amazingly, the Lightning only have one goalie in their organization that isn’t currently signed to an ELC (Ben Bishop). Vasilevskiy, Adam Wilcox, and Kristers Gudlevskis are all quality prospects a team would like to add, but are automatically exempt. So, the Lightning will have to sign a free agent goalie, with no game played requirement, to make him unprotected.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk, Nazem Kadri, Leo Komaraov, Shawn Matthias, Daniel Winnik, Peter Holland, Nick Spaling, Richard Panik

D: Jake Gardiner, Roman Polak, Stephane Robidas, Matt Hunwick, TJ Brennan

G: Jonathan Bernier

Notable Exempt: Morgan Rielly, Martin Marincin, Taylor Beck

Notable Unprotected: Joffrey Lupul*, PA Parenteau, Marc Arcobello, Nathan Horton*, Dion Phaneuf, James Reimer

Yes, Dion Phaneuf. Leafs fans are going to erupt, but I think being able to wipe the slate clean of this failed group of Leafs is important. Moving Kessel was a step in the right direction, but I think Phaneuf needs to go as well. Would a team offer anything of value for him considering he has a cap hit of $7M for the next seven years?

His cap hit will be a hindrance by the time the Leafs are contending again, so I think they’re better off washing their hands of him completely. If left unprotected, he’ll very likely be the best player unprotected and will likely be picked.

Vancouver Canucks

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Jannik Hansen, Nick Bonino, Chris Higgins, Alexandre Burrows, Radim Vrbata, Derek Dorsett, Sven Baertschi

D: Alexander Edler, Dan Hamhuis, Chris Tanev, Adam Clendening, Yannick Weber

G: Ryan Miller

Notable Exempt: Bo Horvat, Frank Corrado

Notable Unprotected: Brandon Prust, Linden Vey, Luca Sbisa, Matt Bartkowski, Jacob Markstrom

Washington Capitals

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson, TJ Oshie, Justin Williams, Jason Chimera, Jay Beagle, Chris Brown

D: John Carlson, Matt Niskanen, Karl Alzner, Brooks Orpik, Dmitri Orlov

G: Braden Holtby

Notable Exempt: Andre Burakovsky, Tom Wilson

Notable Unprotected: Michael Latta, Brooks Laich, Nate Schmidt, Taylor Chorney, sign free agent D, Justin Peters

Nate Schmidt and Taylor Chorney are both NHL caliber defensemen, but neither meets the requirement for the games played requirement. Schmidt played one too few games last season, and two less games over the past two seasons than necessary.

Winnipeg Jets

Protected (9F, 5D, 1G)

F: Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little, Andrew Ladd, Drew Stafford, Matthieu Perreault, Alexander Burmistrov, Chris Thorburn, Matt Fraser, Patrice Cormier

D: Tobias Enstrom, Tyler Myers, Dustin Byfuglien, Mark Stuart, Grant Clitsome

G: Michael Hutchinson

Notable Exempt: Mark Scheifele, Adam Lowry, Jacob Trouba

Notable Unprotected: Matt Halischuk, Anthony Peluso, Jay Harrison, Adam Pardy, Ben Chiarot, Paul Postma, Ondrej Pavelec

One final piece to take into consideration: during the last expansion draft some teams chose to give draft picks to the expansion franchises in exchange for a promise that they would not select a player that they left unprotected. We could see that again in future expansion drafts, likely to protect a goalie that a team wanted to retain, but couldn’t protect.

With all of that in mind, we’re ready to form the rosters of the Las Vegas Aces, and Seattle Kraken (jersey concepts in link)