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The Anaheim Ducks have maybe the best problem a National Hockey League team can have: They have too many defensemen. Not only that, they have too many good, reasonably priced, fairly young defensemen; it may just be the deepest crop in the league.

Following a game-seven conference final loss in last Spring, the Ducks have had a perplexing season. Despite two names perpetually at the top of the scoring leaderboard — Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry — the team hasn’t been able to score for the life of them, causing Bruce Boudreau to resort to a trapping system like he did when he tried to save his job in Washington years ago.

The team still struggles to score, but its shots against numbers have sparkled, and now in the weak Pacific Division the Ducks sit comfortably in a playoff spot, one they’re unlikely they yield the rest of the way.

There are still scoring issues though, and questions about forward depth. With core players like Getzlaf, Perry and Kesler at the ends of their prime, the window with those guys as potential Cup catalysts is closing. The Ducks need to win now, and having eight or nine capable defenseman is unlikely to save a team that lacks top end scoring talent.

With Cam Fowler returning from injury last Tuesday and Clayton Stoner nearing his own clearance, Anaheim General Manager Bob Murray may be in position to copy Western Conference foe Nashville and trade from a position of strength to help a position of weakness.

But if that is the case, who should be the player be to go?

Evaluating defensemen is a difficult task even today because of the lack of data available when it comes to protecting one’s net. That said, there are metrics that can get us part way there, and combining them can at least outline where we should go.

Let’s take look at Anaheim’s nine NHL-level defensemen from an exclusively statistical standpoint, no eye test involved, to see if we can get a conclusive opinion on who should be in the Ducks’ top six, and who should go.

Even-Strength Play

Even strength accounts for approximately 80 percent of game time, so it’s natural that it should be seen as the most important part of the game and weighted as such. Let’s take a look at how the defensemen rank relative to one another in a variety of metrics I feel encompass 5-on-5 performance pretty well.

Murray signed Kevin Bieksa this season to replace the outgoing Francois Beauchemin as a reliable two-way first pairing defenseman. He has played big minutes with Cam Fowler, who Boudreau recently called his team’s “best defenseman.” The pair, though, has looked underwhelming statistically, with Fowler in particular coming in below the 50 percent threshold in Corsi For percentage when healthy.

These numbers paint Hampus Lindholm, the unexpected sixth overall pick in 2012, in a particularly good light, explaining why he was a dark horse Norris Trophy contender in my mid-season picks. Shea Theodore, in a limited sample (13 games), has looked impressive as well.

What about quality of minutes? Have guys like Fowler and Bieksa started more shifts in the defensive zone than most? Thanks to Micah Blake McCurdy and his site hockeyviz.com, we can find true zone start percentages, accounting for on-the-fly shifts.

While Bieksa, and especially Fowler, appear to start more shifts in the defensive zone than average, the difference is only about five shifts per hundred, unlikely to make a significant difference in shot or goal metrics over 30 or 40 games.

Power Play

The Ducks like to play a 1-3-1 with the man advantage, with a second defenseman as a shooter on his off-wing half boards in one or both units. As such, having four or five guys on the backend in the lineup who can quarterback a power play is important. The Ducks have given power play time though to only five defensemen this year. Overall, the team is 20th in Goals For per 60 minutes at 5-on-4, but sixth in Corsi For per 60 minutes.

There are two guys here who look particularly influential on the power play and that is the rookie, Theodore, as well as Sami Vatanen. Prior to Fowler’s return, the two served as the defense pairing on the first power play unit and performed very well.

While Kevin Bieksa has seen the highest power play goal efficiency while on the ice, it’s likely he is best suited as at best a second-unit position, a role he has served decently well alongside the hard-shooting Lindholm.

Penalty Kill

Shorthanded, the Ducks have thrived this season, sitting first in Goals Against per 60 minutes and 11th in Corsi Against per 60 minutes. They have done so largely by rotating their three defense pairings.

These numbers are hard to get a read on because the players who have had the most success preventing goals, Bieksa, Lindholm and Fowler, have either poor Corsi Against or High Danger Scoring Chance against numbers.

Fowler’s 31.4 High Danger Scoring Chances Against per 60 minutes is particularly bad, and likely means that his success is unusually lucky. The hodgepodge of Simon Despres, Korbinian Holzer and the aforementioned Theodore have managed to shutout the opposition in minimal minutes. Stoner has somehow allowed six goals on approximately 15 high danger chances thus far, which is unusually unlucky.

Chemistry

Chemistry can encapsulate many different factors, but our best way of quantifying it is through With or Without You numbers, which document a player’s shot attempt differentials, as the name suggests, with and without particular players on the ice.

Though one must be extremely careful with sample sizes, WOWYs are a great tool not only for separating teammate effects in evaluating players, but also in creating line combinations. Below is each defenseman’s Corsi For per 60 minutes with each other defenseman on the team for this season, as well as the rounded number of minutes the two have played together at 5-on-5. I highlighted the combinations that have played at least 50 minutes together by color in terms of success.

Over 509 minutes, Lindholm and Josh Manson have registered an astonishing 62 percent of shot attempts while on the ice together. Their goal differentials together are notably lower, but it’s still remarkable.

Judging by Manson’s performance with Stoner and others, it’s safe to say the pairing works well together, as the star prospect and the late bloomer appear to boost one another’s performance. Despite Stoner’s reputation in the analytics community as a poor shot metric performer, his numbers with Sami Vatanen are commendable, and it once again appears that the partnership is beneficial to both.

Those two pairings appear to maximize differentials, although Bieksa has also had success with both Lindholm and Vatanen, as has Fowler.

Contract Situation

The Ducks may be in a tough spot soon, with heavy contracts to the aging Getzlaf, Perry and Kesler becoming anchors moving forward. But even while those guys are producers, money may become an issue.

The team is spending $61 million, well under the cap for 2015-16, suggesting, unsurprisingly, that they are a team with an internal budget. If one assumes that their payroll won’t be increasing significantly in the near future, they will have some tough decisions to make going forward.

Currently, Murray and Co. have $53 million committed for next year to eight forwards, six defensemen and one goalie (two if you include the buried Anton Khudobin). Not included in that re-signed group are top six forward David Perron, young goalie Frederik Andersen, and, most importantly, core RFA defensemen Vatanen and Lindholm. Even if one assumes the team lets Perron walk, trades Andersen, and fills the rest of the roster with low salary players, that could still theoretically leave them with under $3 million to try and keep both young stars — an unlikely proposition.

*Note: Despres is at $3,700,000 after this season

So what might the solution be?

Vatanen are Lindholm are the two prizes here, proven young NHL performers with tantalizingly high upside and safe floors. Considering the uncertainty when it comes to drafting defensemen, low cost young options who have proven themselves are solid gold.

Theodore has shown well in a short stint thus far, particularly on the power play, and as another low cost player with minor-league eligibility, it’s unlikely he goes anywhere. Holzer is a journeyman at a low salary, worthwhile to keep around, and Josh Manson has been highly effective as a young, cheap right-handed shot playing with Lindholm. Mason is also flying well under the radar, so is unlikely to bring a big return. Despres has been hurt most of the year and his trade value, already low if you consider he was dealt for Ben Lovejoy, must be fairly limited.

That leaves Stoner, a 30-year-old defensive defenseman and veteran presence who has been very effective playing with Vatanen, and the two first-pairing options. Bieksa has a no-trade clause, one I would imagine he’s unlikely to waive after signing a three-year deal to live in California only this past summer, leaving Fowler, the player Boudreau likes best.

Now deciding to trade a player, particularly a core defenseman, is never an easy thing. If it’s simply a matter of moving bodies, jettisoning a Holzer and/or Stoner for a late-round draft pick might be optimal. But in terms of shedding salary as well as improving the forward corps, dealing Fowler could be a very appealing option.

Even with him gone, pairings of Lindholm-Manson, Stoner-Vatanen, Despres-Bieksa — with Theodore also an option and Holzer as a spare — would be among the best in the league. They would also satisfy the lauded LR-LR-LR-LR handedness preference of most coaches.

What could a deal look like? Loui Eriksson of the Boston Bruins, Jordan Eberle of the Edmonton Oilers, Andrew Ladd of the Winnipeg Jets and Mikkel Boedker of the Arizona Coyotes are all names that could come into play if Fowler were put on the block. If the Ducks do decide to deal him, it could mean those few extra goals the squad will need come playoff time.

*Thanks to War-On-Ice, stats.hockeyanalysis.com, Hockey Reference and Cap Friendly for the numbers. Zone start chart provided by hockeyviz.com, which is sustained by donation.