Kevin Kiermaier, age 28, has manned centerfield for the Rays since 2014. In that time he’s become known as the premier defensive centerfielder in the league, with two Gold and one Platinum Gloves to show for it. His offense has never been his strong suit, and this year in particular he has struggled at the plate. His .586 OPS speaks to a frustrating season.

Unfortunately he’s had several extended DL stints, usually for injuries suffered as a result of his aggressive style both in the outfield and on the bases. The very qualities that make him a valuable player also have led him to miss significant playing time.

Kiermaier signed a contract extension with the Rays last year that could extend his time in Tampa Bay through 2023. While the contract remains affordable in 2018 , it becomes expensive, by Rays standards, moving forward ($8 million in 2019, $10 million in 2020).

At the same time, Mallex Smith, who came to the Rays in a 2017 trade, has seemed to come into his own at the plate this year. Filling in for Kiermaier in center earlier this year, or playing his usual corner outfield position, he’s shown good contact skills and even a touch of power, with an OPS of .810. He was on an offensive tear in August before coming down with a virus that has sidelined him over the past two weeks. At age 25, Smith will not even be arbitration eligible until 2020.

These factors have led some, including friend of the site Tommy Rancel, writing at the Athletic, ($) to posit that the Rays can, and should, trade Kiermaier this off season, allowing the younger, cheaper, but equally able Smith to take his place.

Rancel goes to compare the projections for Kiermaier and Smith. By Steamer Smith is projected to be a 1.9 WAR/600 player and Kiermaier is projected to be a 2.6 WAR/600 player.

Both players have been roughly league average bats at the major league level. Almost all the difference comes from projecting Kiermaier being +8.6 runs better defensively. Kiermaier beats Smith along just about any defensive metric, and if you prefer the eye test you can’t help but notice that Kiermaier has one of the better arms among major league outfielders, which not only leads to outs on the bases, but also discourages opposing teams from even thinking about that extra base. Smith’s arm, in contrast, is a weakness.

When you never watch the AL. pic.twitter.com/gg94vqP4al — Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) August 30, 2018

Believing that the Rays can jettison Kiermaier in favor of Smith assumes that the huge gap in their offensive production this year is indicative of their future performance, and sufficient to make up for the considerable value Kiermaier brings to a key defensive position.

Should the Rays trade Kiermaier? Sure, if they get blown away with an offer. But that’s true of every player on the roster.

Rancel suggests the starting point for the Rays discussing a Kiermaier trade is a top-50 prospect and at least another top-100 prospect. Much like when they decided to move Evan Longoria, the Rays do have an in house option that can fill the position the same scenario exists with Kiermaier with the presence of Smith.

Due to the under performance at the plate from Kiermaier this year, however, we think it is unlikely that, at this moment, Kiermaier would have value on the trade market that is higher than his value to the Rays in 2019. Maybe the market is more robust for defense-first players about to turn 29 than we expect, but with his down year at the plate that seems incredibly optimistic.

Of course by keeping him the Rays run the risk that further injuries or simply the impact of the aging curve render him without any value a year later. But the Rays, we assume, plan to be competitive in 2019, and we believe they are likely to be the most competitive with Kiermaier in centerfield.

Next year’s outfield looks to be one consisting of Kevin Kiermaier, Tommy Pham, Mallex Smith and Austin Meadows. Given the likelihood of injuries (Kiermaier, Pham and Smith have all had DL stints in 2018), we don’t see the Rays 2019 outfield as “overcrowded.”

We’ve learned never to say that any player on the Rays will never be traded, but we don’t think a trade of Kiermaier is likely or, unless the Rays get an unexpectedly robust offer, desirable.