While Tesla's Model 3 quite rightly grabbed the business headlines in March with its blitz like domination of Europe's electric car market, with just under 16,000 monthly registrations, equating to narrowly under 40 percent of Western Europe's total pure electric car market, a more in-depth look highlights some worrying signs. While one third (5,315) of those March registrations came in Europe's electric halo market, Norway, where a number of factors mean electric vehicles reach price parity with ICE vehicles in the same or even a sector below (Tesla Model 3 is priced at the same price as a Volkswagen Passat in Norway), in volume markets such as Germany (2,224) and France (1,153) March volumes proved less fruitful.

graph 19.05a | German Tesla Model 3 orders continue to fall

Now latest German government BAFA data once again indicates another month-on-month fall in Model 3 orders. The number of applications for the state electric car bonus worth €2,000 from the government (OEM has to match this bringing the total to €4,000) fell for a third straight month. The number of government subsidy applications fell to 735 in April, the lowest level since applications began in January of this year. see graph 19.05a The BAFA government data is one of the best indicators of Model 3 demand as it provides a forward looking view of demand unaffected by delivery constraints. The total number of applications for the Model 3 that have been taken in Germany lies at 3,292 up to the period of April 30, 2019, while the total number of deliveries during the same period totaled 3,699 leaving a difference of 407 units or a margin of 12%. The total amount of applications for the long-range duel motor model totalled 2,677 while the performance duel motor version received 615 applications making a respective mix of 81.3 and 18.7 percent. German government susbideis for pure elctric cars are availble for vehicels with a base value no higher than €60,000. Some analysts, such as Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, predicted earlier that 20,000 Model 3s could be sold in Germany this year (2019). Last year the most registered pure electric car in Germany was the Renault Zoe with 6,360 registrations according to KBA data. The Tesla Model 3 remained the most registered electric car in Germany in the opening 4-months of the year with 3,699 registrations, just in front of Renault's Zoe with 3,656 units according to KBA data. It is understood in industry circles that traditional OEMs are limiting demand of their electric models up until 2020 to help lower their EU (plus Norway) CO2 fleet average emissions. Tesla is unaffected by this being a pure electric manufacturer.