One year ago, much of the Russian elite was elated at the prospect of a Trump presidency. Duma deputies sipped champagne and applauded while jingoistic commentators performed victory dances on Twitter. The “Russophobe” Hillary Clinton had been defeated; in her place was an exceptionalist alpha male using divisive politics to get his way – he was a man they all understood.

Things soon changed. Already by the end of February, the Kremlin was sending out messages that things were not OK. Trump and his administration were now fair game for criticism on state TV propaganda shows. Then came new sanctions, considered the low point of relations last summer, then tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomatic staff.

A year into the Trump presidency, Moscow can look back on 12 months of awful, and worsening, relations – a year in which confrontation became the default position.

“When Trump was inaugurated, people thought that it would be possible to reach agreement on the basic of pragmatic mutual interests,” says Dmitry Trenin, the long-time head of the Moscow Carnegie Centre, considered to be close to the Russian policy-making elite. “Over the year people realised he is blocked by Congress, by bureaucracy and by the media.”

The Kremlin continues to make a distinction between the president and his administration. Trump, by and large, is still viewed positively; he caused a breakdown in US politics, and that, for Moscow, can only a good thing. Bar a few early episodes, state media has generally presented a sympathetic picture of the US President, with Vladimir Putin even offering words of support at key junctures.

But Trump’s administration is loathed – dismissed as “unprofessional” and “Russophobic”. There are few significant political channels of communication between the two countries today. This point was not lost on Richard Haass, the former US diplomat and current head of the influential Council for Foreign Relations, who this week completed a working trip to Moscow. “I am struck by how little there is to the US-Russian relationship – less interaction now than during much of Cold War,” he wrote on Twitter.

The Kremlin understands Trump is of little use on Russian policy, but it has not yet given up completely. “Putin is still trying to work with the President as much as he can,” says Trenin. “He’s unlikely to be impeached and the 2020 election is unpredictable.”

Political tensions are also reflected in Russian public opinion. A poll by the independent Levada Centre earlier this month suggested that as many as seven in 10 Russians consider America to be Russia’s enemy. By contrast, only three out of 10 said Ukraine was an enemy.

Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Show all 20 1 /20 Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Vladimir Putin is pictured with a horse during his vacation outside the town of Kyzyl in Southern Siberia on August 3, 2009. Getty Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Vladimir Putin aims at a whale with an arbalest to take a piece of its skin for analysis on the Olga Bay, some 240 kilometres north-east of Nakhodka on August 25, 2010. Getty Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Vladimir Putin plunges into the icy waters of lake Seliger during the celebration of the Epiphany holiday in Russia's Tver region AFP/Getty Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Vladimir Putin (top) takes part in a judo training session at the "Moscow" sports complex in St. Petersburg, on December 22, 2010. Getty Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Vladimir Putin works out at a gym at the Bocharov Ruchei state residence in Sochi on August 30, 2015. Getty Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Vladimir Putin fishes in the remote Tuva region in southern Siberia. The picture taken between August 1 and 3, 2017. Getty Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Vladimir Putin (L) and the leader of the Night Wolves biker group, Alexander Zaldostanov (R), also known as the Surgeon, ride motorcycles on August 29, 2011 at a bikers' festival in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, Russia. Putin described leather-clad bikers as brothers and boasted of the "indivisible Russian nation" after roaring into a biking rally on a Harley Davidson. Getty Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Vladimir Putin wears glasses as he visits the Technology Park of the Novosibirsk Academic Town in Novosibirsk on February 17, 2012. Getty Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Vladimir Putin rides a horse during his vacation outside the town of Kyzyl in Southern Siberia on August 3, 2009. Getty Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Vladimir Putin holds a pistol during his visit to a newly-built headquarters of the Russian General Staff's Main Intelligence Department (GRU) in Moscow, 08 November 2006. ?Some countries are seeking to untie their hands in order to take weapons to outer space, including nuclear weapons,? Putin said at the Chief Military Intelligence Department on Wednesday. Getty Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Vladimir Putin sits inside a T-90AM tank during a visit to an arms exhibition in the Urals town of Nizhny Tagil on September 9, 2011 Getty Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Vladimir Putin wears a helmet and the uniform of the Renault Formula One team before driving a F1 race car on a special track in Leningrad region outside St. Petersburg on November 7, 2010. Getty Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Vladimir Putin guides a boat during his vacation in the remote Tuva region in southern Siberia. The picture taken between August 1 and 3, 2017. Getty Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Vladimir Putin hunts fish underwater in the remote Tuva region in southern Siberia. The picture taken between August 1 and 3, 2017. Getty Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Vladimir Putin is seen at the Russian boxing team training club after casting his vote for the Russian Presidential election, 14 March 2004 in Moscow. Putin coasted to a landslide victory with 69.0 percent of the vote in Sunday's election, according to the first exit poll aired on Russian television moments after voting ended across the country's 11 time zones. AFP/Getty Images Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Russian President Vladimir Putin poses for a picture inside the Tupolev-160 strategic bomber jet at the Moscow's Chkalovsky military airport, 16 August 2005. President Vladimir Putin took off from Moscow for a supersonic flight in a cruise-missile carrying Tupolev-160 bomber jet, the latest in the Russian leader's action-packed public appearances. After a health check, Putin donned a flight suit and took the commander's position in the strategic bomber, which was piloted by Major General Anatoly Zhikharev, with a colonel and a lieutenant colonel in charge of navigation, Russian media reported. Getty Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? A picture released on March 6, 2010 shows Vladimir Putin look through binoculars in the Karatash area, near the town of Abakan, during his working trip to Khakassia, on February 25, 2010. Getty Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Vladimir Putin measuring a polar bear on the island Alexandra Land, part of the Franz Josef Land archipalego in the Arctic Ocean. Putin, better known in the West for his tough-guy image, expressed concern for the fate of Arctic polar bears threatened by climate change. "The polar bear is under threat. Their population is currently only 25,000 individuals," Putin was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying Getty Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Vladimir Putin carries a hunting rifle during his trip in Ubsunur Hollow Biosphere Reserve in Tuva Republic in this undated picture released on October 30, 2010 by RIA Novosti news agency. Getty Vladimir Putin's Photo ops – Russia's Man of Steel? Russian President Vladimir Putin pilots a motorized hang glider while flying with cranes as he takes part in a scientific experiment as part of the "Flight of Hope", which aims to preserve a rare species of - cranes on September 5, 2012. At the helm of a motorized hang glider that the birds have taken as their leader, Putin made three flights - the first to get familiar with the process, and two others with the birds. AFP/Getty

From this low point, things are likely to get much worse. The ongoing Mueller investigation into undue Russian influence in the 2016 elections is likely to continue to dig up dirt. But even larger sparks are likely to fly within days – when the State Department publishes a list of individuals considered “exposed” to the Kremlin, as it has been asked to do by Congress.

Moscow has been full of speculation on the contents of this report. According to the Kommersant newspaper, approximately 50 names will be included in the final list; that number swells to 300 if family members are included. The field of potential candidates is huge, says Mark Galeotti, senior researcher at the Institute of International Relations Prague. It is, after all, a rare Russian oligarch who has not had some dealings with the Kremlin. "The problem is that looks very much like an instrument without a purpose," says Galeotti.

US officials have stressed that sanctions will not follow inclusion in this list. But that has not stopped worried businessmen from engaging in desperate lobbying efforts to keep their names off the list. Their reasons are understandable, says the independent political expert Maria Lipman: “Anyone on the list will be considered toxic goods, and doing business with them, or securing finance for their projects will be near impossible. It is impossible to see how this turn will not contribute to a further deterioration in relations.”

Moscow has offered few clues about how it will respond to any moves against its privileged business elite. “Mr Putin is too canny a politician to ever ask the US to show kindness,” says Lipman. “But we know that the foreign minister is due in Washington, so such issues are likely on the table.”

In recent public comments on the matter, Putin – who is the only man who matters in foreign policy – said that Russia would analyse and respond to the reality of any sanctions. “Illegal sanctions” would lead to a worsening in relations, he warned: “Nothing good can come out of that, but it doesn’t depend on us. It depends first and foremost on the American side.”

President Trump has little room to manoeuvre. Any moves to dampen the influence of sanctions are likely to be met with a fierce reaction from Congress. Last week, congressmen and women upped the pressure with a new report entitled “Putin’s asymmetric attack on democracy”. In the opening paragraph, the authors noted the Kremlin’s use of an “asymmetrical arsenal of invasions, cyberattacks, disinformation, support for fringe political groups and the weaponisation of energy resources, organised crime, and corruption.”

They are likely right on one thing: Putin will be considering an asymmetrical intervention here too. Throughout his career, the Russian President has prided himself on surprise actions. But his options are limited. An attack on American business elites, who are against sanctions, seems counterproductive. An aggressive response will meanwhile trigger a further cycle of sanctions.