SPC AC 101630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN N TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF S TX/THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREAS...FROM MO SWWD ACROSS OK...AND SWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ALSO COULD OCCUR. ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S. THIS PERIOD. IN THE NRN STREAM...A LARGE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING THE NERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A SECOND TROUGH EXPANDS SEWD INTO THE N CENTRAL U.S./GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE IN THE SRN STREAM...A LOW/TROUGH WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE DESERT SW/SRN ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO EMERGE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SECOND FEATURE DIGGING SEWD OFF THE CA COAST WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE BROADER CYCLONIC CURVATURE -- ACROSS THE SWRN AND EVENTUALLY THE S CENTRAL U.S. -- WITHIN THE SRN STREAM OF FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS IL/MO TO THE OK/KS BORDER REGION. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN OK TO THE TRANSPECOS REGION/PERMIAN BASIN OF TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE TWO BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE FOCI FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...SERN KS/MO INTO MUCH OF OK AND WRN/CENTRAL TX... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HEATING/MIXING GRADUALLY COMMENCING ACROSS W TX/WRN OK...SE OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND E OF THE DRYLINE. WHILE AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED -- DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW AND ENEWD ADVECTION OF AN EML...PERSISTENT HEATING/MIXING AND EVENTUAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALLOW CAP TO WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML AND MODEST /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S/ DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS WRN OK/W CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE BY PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT LATE AFTERNOON MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES TO INCREASE INTO THE 1500 TO LOCALLY 2500 J/KG RANGE. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF THE DRYLINE -- AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN W OF THE RIO GRANDE OVER NRN MEXICO -- SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALSO OCCUR INVOF THE SWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND GIVEN FAVORABLY VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR...INITIAL STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR. MODEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS SUGGEST A RATHER DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND THUS HIGHER-BASED STORMS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO RISK. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY RISK...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE WITH TIME INTO CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS FROM WRN N TX ENEWD ACROSS OK...EVENTUALLY SPREADING SERN KS/WRN MO THROUGH THE EVENING INVOF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH CONTINUED HAIL/WIND RISK. FARTHER S...STORMS MAY ALSO GROW UPSCALE AS THEY MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE...WHERE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..GOSS/COOK.. 04/10/2016 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z