What are your projections for bitcoin in the next 5 years? Ask anyone this question, and the answer will be something like $30k, $50k, $100k. Some will even tell you that it could hit $1 million. I am yet to see someone who projects that bitcoin might actually go lower than its current price levels.

With everyone so bullish, let's take a critical look at bitcoin and see whether these price predictions are realistic. After all, bitcoin is an investment like any other, and it always pays to understand the risks, right?

In the last few years, we have seen an upsurge in cryptos that outperform bitcoin on all fronts. They are faster, cheaper, and way more scalable than bitcoin. This explains why bitcoin’s market share has dropped over time. This doesn't augur so well with the $100k - $1 million bitcoin projection. But someone can argue that some of these issues will be resolved, and bitcoin will regain its glory.

But is that really the case? To contextualize this, let’s assume that an improvement like the lightning network makes bitcoin faster, and lowers the transaction costs. Would this make bitcoin more attractive than its competitors. Absolutely not! At the moment, we have cryptos that can do crazy transaction speeds, and at a fraction of the cost of bitcoin; with or without the lightning network. Digibyte is a perfect example of such cryptos.

Then there is the fact that private blockchains are on the rise. These blockchains are being adopted by corporations, and are making the news every day. Do they need bitcoin? NO! That's why there are so many good news about blockchain adoption, but the price of bitcoin doesn't change much. That’s an indicator of the future we can expect in crypto-sphere. Blockchain will rise, and get adopted widely, but bitcoin and a good chunk of the coins in the market today, might not be a part of that success!

When you put these factors together, it’s hard to see a justification for bitcoin getting to $100k. Then again, the crypto market is not known for its rationality. Bitcoin could pull a surprise bull rally and hit $1 million in the next 5 years. However, as an investor, don’t jump in with both legs. Invest, but also research on some other cryptos that correlate better with emerging market trends. It never hurts to diversify.

PS: THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.