Forecasts show Hillary Clinton easily winning the Iowa caucuses. | AP Photo 538 projects Cruz, Clinton to win Iowa The site also gives Trump a clear edge in New Hampshire.

Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz have the greatest chances of winning the Iowa caucuses two weeks from Monday, new polling-based forecasts from FiveThirtyEight show.

Cruz has a 51 percent chance of winning Iowa when national and state polls as well as endorsements are taken into account. In that forecast, Donald Trump trails Cruz with a 29 percent chance of winning Feb. 1.


A look at just state polls shows a much closer race between Trump and Cruz, giving the business magnate a better chance of winning by 2 percentage points, 44 percent to Cruz’s 42 percent.

All around, Hillary Clinton is believed to have an all-but-certain victory over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in Iowa.

The polls-plus forecast gives Clinton an 82 percent chance of winning, while Sanders comes in at 18 percent. That margin narrows dramatically with a look at just Iowa polls, with Clinton leading Sanders 66 percent to 34 percent.

The forecasts suggest that state polls alone may not be the most accurate predictor of primary results.

Aside from sorting between Democrats and Republicans and individual states, the online forecast tool offers two filtering options: polls-plus, a forecast that determines a candidate’s chance of winning based on state and national polls as well as endorsements; and polls-only, a determination based solely on state polls.

Forecasts are also available for New Hampshire, which will hold its traditional first-in-the-nation primary Feb. 9.

Both forecasts show Trump with the greatest chance of winning, with a double-digit margin over all other candidates. Based just on New Hampshire polls, Trump has a 57 percent chance of winning, with the next candidate Marco Rubio with a 12 percent chance. With all polls and endorsements accounted for, the margin between the two shrinks, but Trump still holds a sizable advantage, with a 39 percent chance of winning to Rubio’s 19 percent.

Sanders, based just on New Hampshire polls, has a 72 percent chance of winning the primary; Clinton is down to a 28 percent chance. But things look considerably better for the former secretary of state when all polls and endorsements are considered: She has a 57 percent chance of winning, and Sanders has a 43 percent chance.

Forecasts for South Carolina and Nevada are not yet available but will be with polling in the weeks directly before the contests. Polling results for these states, however, are available, with FiveThirtyEight detailing the polling company, sample size and dates.

FiveThirtyEight is the website of Nate Silver, formerly based at The New York TImes. Silver earned kudos in 2012 for successfully projecting the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the presidential election.