18 May 2018

Refer to our HI outlook on USDINR where we had forecasted for a weaker rupee in HI. The movement has been quicker than we expected and rupee has been trading now at 67.80. Technically 65.40 was a crucial levels to break for medium term rupee weakness which is history now. As seen on the chart below Rupee has been moving with a rising channel from 65.40 and as we see 5 -6 attempts were made on the lower channel support and it bounced back.Currently the channel support is seen at 67.60 and till the time 67.60 does not break on the downside , it’s likely that the upward channel resistance can be tested around 68.20-68.50.We have to be careful for any divergence in Momentum indicators. Hence sell break only once the channel support breaks.

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