Liberal lead cut to 23 points

Progressive Conservatives, NDP increase vote share

TORONTO November 24th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 842 Newfoundland and Labrador voters, just more than half will vote Liberal (52%), while about 3-in-10 will vote Progressive Conservative (29%). The NDP vote is characteristic of one fifth (19%). This stands in sharp contrast to the last time we polled the day after the writs were drawn up, when the Liberals had a 44 point lead (November 6 - Liberals 65% to 21% for the Progressive Conservatives, 13% for the NDP).

The Liberal vote is common to the younger voter (35 to 44 - 59%), the least wealthy (65%), western Newfoundland and Corner Brook (67%) and among those voting in advance polls (62%).

The Progressive Conservative vote is characteristic of the oldest (33%), mid-income groups ($40K to $60K - 40%), in St John’s and the Avalon Peninsula (31%), but not in Labrador (22%).

The NDP vote is common to the youngest (31%) and in Labrador (46%).

Of note, about 4-in-10 past Progressive Conservative voters will support the Liberals this time (39%), as will the same proportion of past NDP voters (41%).

Leader approvals are stable

Close to half approve of Dwight Ball (45%) and his net favourable rating (approve minus disapprove) is +12, Paul Davis has the approval of 4-in-10 (39%) and his net is a slightly negative -5. Earle McCurdy is approved of by 3-in-10 (30%) and his net score is a negative -16.

Ball seen as best premier

Dwight Ball is seen as the best Premier by a slight margin over Paul Davis (34% to 30%) while Earle McCurdy does not pass muster on this measure (10%).





“It appears that reports of the Liberals’ massive lead in some polls has led voters to reconsider their decision, with just 6 days left until the election. Make no mistake, the Liberals still sport a huge lead, but probably not enough for a legislative sweep," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.