The Army Combat Fitness Test (ACFT) is the worst Army idea in 18 years. That is a bold statement when there are rivals like the beret, the ACU, and reissuing the M14 rifle. Those were dumb, but the beret is just a hat, at least we did not have to iron ACUs, and the force quickly parked all of our broken M14s on gun racks. The ACFT distinguishes itself because it is a voluntary service initiative that will inevitably fail.

Why will the ACFT fail? Senior leaders make no management evaluation of initiatives prior to implementation. I could (and may) elaborate on why, but instead I will offer some educated predictions for Army Times stories on this topic. Their editors must love this test, because that weekly headline about our service rifle probably is not driving sales.

October 1st, 2019: "End of an Era: Your Last APFT". All units will take their last scheduled record APFT this quarter to comply with ACFT Implementation instructions. Commanders report concerns they still have not received ACFT equipment.

January 1st, 2020: "New Year, New Beginnings". The Army begins implementation. All Soldiers will take two diagnostic ACFTs prior to October 1st, 2020. Units report they still have no equipment access. The Army G4 and whoever else comment that arrival is imminent for all units. There are a bunch of quotes from CrossFit people about modalities and other obscure hipster fitness and nutrition terms.

July 1st, 2020: "No Bars, No Plates, No Problem? ACFT General Responds to Criticism". Findings show only 20% of Active Duty and 5% of Reserve and National Guard units have taken even one required diagnostic ACFT. Some large installations have as few as 20 total lanes of equipment and units are informally sharing them. Contracting Command is trying to overcome contractor protests of ACFT equipment purchases and seeking alternative sourcing, but discovered the hex bar is a limited production item. The Army is negotiating with foundries to increase production, but the Army's demand alone has nearly doubled pricing on hex bars. Anonymous TRADOC sources indicate they may need to lengthen Basic Combat Training because women are not showing adequate power increases over the current length training. The ACFT CG says commanders are not being creative enough in resourcing and need to redouble efforts.

October 1st, 2020: "Ready or Not, It's Here". Head in the clouds Officers talk about how everyone is ready, people should do longer PRT preparation drills, and how we should go back to how tough people were in the mid-90s, no conflict Army. Anonymous commanders report they just got the equipment and will play shell games to delay testing to give people any chance to prepare. Soldiers with permanent profiles still have not been evaluated against the ACFT. Reports arise that recent retirees influential in the ACFT are now employed by fitness equipment companies. The Inspector General discusses the importance of test administrators adhering to the 200 pages of testing guidance or testing will be invalid.

December 1st, 2020: "Lump of Coal: Soldiers Claim Arbitrary Standards". The Army Times bothers to learn these scores are based on nothing but someone saying "hey, that sounds good" and quotes anonymous Soldiers discussing how silly the example associated combat tasks read. There are discussions about the very high standards of the alternate aerobic events and why they all just happen to be 25 minutes. A comparison is made that a Soldier must swim farther and faster to pass the ACFT swim than a Sailor has to in order to pass screening for Basic Underwater Demolition & SEAL Training. Reports start of less than 2% of Active Duty Soldiers taking their first record test. Surprising reports arise that over 50% of Reserve and National Guard Soldiers already completed their tests with only a negligible amount failing. The Army sets a deadline of March 30th, 2021 for all Soldiers to take a record test.

June 1st, 2021: "Pencil Whip". Investigations report widespread cheating in the Reserve and National Guard, with many record tests occurring at units who did not even have equipment on hand. The Inspector General determined this is happening at numerous units in all components. Side stories regarding numerous Commanders at all echelons under suspension for false reporting, and other side stories about shoot the messenger policies encouraging false reporting by Company Grade Officers and NCOs. After all Soldiers took a legitimate test, failure rates and accompanying flag rates are staggering. 35% of active Soldiers (166,000 of 476,000), 75% of Reservists and National Guardsman (406,000 of 542,000), and 85% of the 121,000 women in the Total Army are flagged.

June 8th, 2021: "Mr. Secretary Goes to Washington". After widespread outrage over what appears to be an anti-woman policy, Representative Whoever holds hearings with the Secretary and Chief of Staff. The Chief struggles to explain why this test is necessary and the basis for standards. Representative Whoever asks why there was no grandfathering policy and describes a Lieutenant Colonel Dentist with 16 years of service who never failed an APFT, has minimal rigorous combat duties, and is facing possible firing despite being named Dentist of the Year by the Chief during a previous assignment when he was the Commanding General of Fort Wherever.

June 9th, 2021: "The Plan All Along". The G1 Uniform SGM, or whoever they can find that was not involved in this, announces the APFT will remain the test of record, the ACFT an experimental add-on, and that this was a productive exercise that achieved all of its goals. "This was the plan along and was more of a mechanism to challenge our personnel system and to get engaged leadership involved. The flags implemented were not intended and will be removed as erroneous". Numerous Generals announce retirement and the Army insists it is unrelated. Commanders report they have now received their full suite of training and testing equipment, but storage space is now critically short. Lawsuits and other actions begin regarding Soldiers who were flagged and not selected by centralized promotion boards over the past year.

AUTHOR COMMENT: The original version listed invading Iraq as a bad Army decision. An astute reader pointed out, correctly, that invading Iraq was a national initiative, not a service one.

For my latest take, see: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/army-hates-women-dont-intend-i-think-bo-schnell

Bo Schnell is an employee at a Federal Agency who is wondering why any of this is happening.