Substantial mortality reductions mean children today are more likely than ever to reach their 20th birthdays

Progress is uneven in low- and low-middle-SDI countries, and slowest among adolescents globally

Serbia, Armenia, Estonia, and China saw the greatest mortality reductions in those aged 19 and younger

SEATTLE – The United States is one of only eight countries in the world where decreases in child and adolescent mortality over a 27-year period haven’t also been matched by reductions in maternal mortality, according to a new scientific study.

This divergent trend also was found in American Samoa, Canada, Greece, Guam, Jamaica, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Zimbabwe. Of these countries, the United States had the largest increase in maternal mortality rate at 67.5%.

“Our findings are particularly alarming because the health of children is very closely linked to that of their mothers,” said Dr. Nicholas Kassebaum, a senior author on the study and adjunct associate professor at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine. “This paradox warrants closer investigation in the United States to determine how we can prioritize health improvements for mothers alongside those for children and adolescents.”

Kassebaum emphasized the study also identifies uneven progress in child and adolescent health over the 27-year study period, with inequity increasing between countries with the highest and lowest Socio-demographic Index (SDI) scores. SDI, a measure of development, takes into account per capita income, adult education, and total fertility rate for women under 25 years old.

For example, findings show the gap between the best and worst performers has widened. Low-SDI and low-middle-SDI countries experienced 82.2% of all child and adolescent deaths, up from 70.9% in 1990.

Published today in the international medical journal JAMA Pediatrics, the study covers 1990 to 2017 and 195 countries and territories. A part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, this new analysis is a comprehensive effort to quantify child and adolescent health internationally. Findings are presented for the collective age group of birth to 19 years, but also separately for neonates, infants, children, and adolescents. Study authors defined neonates as those younger than 28 days, infants as those younger than 1 year, children as those younger than 10 years, and adolescents as those aged 10 to 19 years.

Researchers found children today are more likely than ever to reach their 20th birthdays as a result of substantial mortality reductions. Child and adolescent deaths were halved between 1990 and 2017, falling from 13.8 million to 6.6 million. These dramatic gains were largely due to global declines in deaths from diarrhea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases, especially among children aged 1–4 years, who saw the most rapid reduction in mortality.

Despite this considerable progress, lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, and acute malnutrition remained among the top killers of children and adolescents globally in 2017. Furthermore, HIV/AIDS remains an imminent threat to the health and well-being of older children and adolescents in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, including South Africa, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Swaziland, Botswana, and Zambia.

With reductions in mortality from communicable diseases, many middle- and high-income countries have experienced increased health loss from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as congenital birth defects, mental and behavioral disorders, and asthma. Injuries also continue to be a major cause of early mortality and long-term disability among older children and adolescents in all countries.

“An emerging threat is the large and growing burden of mental health and substance use disorders among older children and adolescents globally,” said Dr. Bobby Reiner, lead author on the study and assistant professor at IHME. “As more children survive infancy, already overburdened health systems will need to adapt to the challenge of addressing non-communicable diseases among older children and adolescents.”

Reiner also noted that few countries showed any evidence of health improvements among adolescents over the 27-year period beyond what was expected with general gains in societal development.

Additional findings include:

More than half of the 6.64 million deaths in 2017 occurred in infants younger than 1 year, and of those, 47% occurred in the first week of life.

There were a total of 50 countries where the probability of death by self-harm and interpersonal violence increased between 1990 and 2017.

Every country in sub-Saharan Africa had either neonatal disorders, malaria, or HIV/AIDS as the leading cause of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), with either diarrhea or lower respiratory infections often ranked second.

In 2017, the top 10 causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) globally were iron-deficiency anemia, vitamin A deficiency, headache, conduct disorder, neonatal disorders, anxiety disorder, skin diseases, lower back pain, congenital disorders, and depression.

Rates of YLDs decreased only slightly between 1990 and 2017, and increased with age.

The study is entitled “Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors in Child and Adolescent Health, 1990 to 2017.”

DEATHS, BOTH SEXES, 2017

Under 20 years

India: 1,299,265 deaths Nigeria: 866,170 Pakistan: 421,784 Democratic Republic of the Congo: 286,991 China: 243,609 Ethiopia: 232,389 Indonesia: 147,791 Bangladesh: 143,528 Tanzania: 138,382 Mali: 113,600

DEATHS, BOTH SEXES, 1990

Under 20 years

India: 3,399,581 deaths China: 1,629,696 Nigeria: 877,069 Bangladesh: 654,730 Pakistan: 601,805 Ethiopia: 471,391 Indonesia: 470,377 Democratic Republic of the Congo: 299,385 Brazil: 267,476 Tanzania: 188,343

PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN DEATHS, BOTH SEXES, 1990–2017

Under 20 years – largest decrease

Serbia: -86.9% (4,839 to 636 deaths) Armenia: -86.6% (3,836 to 514) Estonia: -86.5% (611 to 82) China: -85.0% (1,629,696 to 243,609) Maldives: -84.8% (488 to 74) Latvia: -84.5% (1,066 to 165) Albania: -84.0% (4,070 to 651) Portugal: -83.5% (3,013 to 499) South Korea: -82.7% (14,748 to 2,545) Romania: -82.3% (13,607 to 2,411)

Under 20 years – largest increase

Papua New Guinea: 40.5% (12,624 to 17,736) Vanuatu: 36.1% (238 to 324) Chad: 31.0% (67,124 to 87,908) Central African Republic: 24.3% (21,360 to 26,545) Zimbabwe: 12.5% (28,549 to 32,117) Iraq: 10.8% (40,510 to 44,894) South Sudan: 9.2% (48,460 to 52,897) Qatar: 4.9% (287 to 301) Afghanistan: 4.2% (96,809 to 100,823) United Arab Emirates: 2.8% (1,431 to 1,471)

Media contacts:

IHME: Kelly Bienhoff, +1-206-897-2884 (office); +1-913-302-3817 (mobile); [email protected]

IHME: Dean Owen, +1-206-897-2858 (office); +1-206-434-5630 (mobile); [email protected]

JAMA: Jim Michalski, +1-312-464-5786 (office); [email protected]

Available for comment:

Dr. Nicholas Kassebaum, Adjunct Associate Professor of Health Metrics Sciences, IHME; [email protected]

Dr. Bobby Reiner, Assistant Professor of Health Metrics Sciences, IHME, [email protected]

About the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research organization at the University of Washington that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world’s most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them. IHME is committed to transparency and makes this information widely available so that policymakers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions on allocating resources to improve population health.

About the Global Burden of Disease study

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is the largest and most comprehensive effort to quantify health loss across places and over time. It draws on the work of more than 3,600 collaborators from 146 countries and territories. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation coordinates the study. The GBD 2017 study was published in November 2018 and includes more than 38 billion estimates of 359 diseases and injuries and 84 risk factors in 195 countries and territories.