While I am mostly happy about the resolution to the Eagles situation, it isn’t perfect. There is definite risk in putting Chip Kelly in charge of personnel.

First, we don’t know how good he is at personnel evaluation. We know some anecdotal bits, like the fact Kelly said Odell Beckham was his favorite WR in the draft. But that’s nothing special. People that are really good at finding talent are the ones who find players in the late rounds or as UDFAs. Figuring out you like Beckham a lot is like saying Julie is your favorite Eagles cheerleader.

Kelly had to build a roster at Oregon and he obviously did a great job of that. But finding and developing college players isn’t the same thing as NFL roster building. College players can be “good enough” and you can still win a lot. In the NFL, everyone has access to great talent. Building an elite roster in the NFL takes hard work, skill and some luck. How different is Seattle if Russell Wilson doesn’t last to their 3rd round pick? How different is New England if Tom Brady doesn’t last to pick 199?

In college, if you don’t like a player you simply bench him and move on. There is no financial commitment. The NFL is about finding talent and then deciding how much to pay them and how long to keep them. That can really complicate things.

The Eagles have shied away from character issues the last 2 years. Can you build a championship roster like this? Keep in mind that character issues doesn’t mean wife beaters and crack smokers. It could mean someone like Darelle Revis, who has no legal problems, but constantly feels underpaid, even when he’s one of the top paid players in the league. At some point, Kelly may need to take risks on a guy or two that isn’t his ideal person. Kelly had some troubled kids at Oregon, but has avoided those types so far in the NFL.

Arguably the biggest difference is the size of rosters. College rosters are huge. The current Oregon team has over 100 players, a mixture of scholarships and walk-ons. The Eagles have a 53-man roster and 10 man-practice squad. It is harder to stash and develop players in the NFL. Since only 46 guys are active on gameday, you can’t count on getting playing time to everyone. And Tennessee Tech is never on the schedule. Developing talent in the NFL isn’t easy.

Let’s say that Kelly does turn out to be good at finding talent, early and late in the draft. That still doesn’t make everything okay.

One big problem with coaches doing personnel work is that they rarely understand value. The coaches know who they like and who they really want. Mike Ditka is the most famous example of this. In 1999 he traded all his picks plus a 1st and 3rd to move from pick 12 to pick 5 to get RB Ricky Williams, who he saw as his new version of Walter Payton. Williams was a great prospect and had a good NFL career, but that’s not how you build a team. Ditka went 3-13 that year and was fired.

Back in 2006 the Eagles coveted 2 players, Brodrick Bunkley and Winston Justice. Andy Reid wanted to move up in the draft to get Bunkley. Tom Heckert, who was masterful at gathering pre-draft info, felt the Eagles could stay put at pick 14 and get Bunkley. Heckert had to talk Reid out of moving up for Bunkley, who did fall to 14. Justice was expected to be a Top 20 pick, but fell down the board. Reid pushed Heckert to move up from the 2nd round for him. Heckert waited patiently until Justice got to pick 39, where he made a reasonable deal and the Eagles got their other man. By Heckert knowing what other teams would do and how to play the board, the Eagles got both players. Left to his own devices, Reid would have overpaid for Bunkley and would have had less of a chance to get Justice.

Chip Kelly found out about value last May. The Eagles had a 3rd round grade on DE Taylor Hart. Kelly wanted to take him with the first pick of the 4th round. Howie Roseman explained to Kelly that Hart wasn’t going to go at that point. The Eagles could take other players, who they had rated the same or higher, and could still get Hart down the road. The Eagles took DB Jaylen Watkins and then got Hart in the 5th round.

A story came out over the weekend that Kelly wanted the Eagles to take WR Jordan Matthews in the 1st round, but Roseman talked him out of that and explained that Matthews would be there in the 2nd round. The Eagles waited until the 2nd round, but then did trade up to get Matthews.

There are a couple of differing theories here. The first says that draft value is important. You figure out which players you want and then try to figure out what the other 31 teams think of the player. Is this someone that you can wait on or do you need to be aggressive? This isn’t about looking for bargains. The point is to try not to overpay since you have limited resources. If you can get a player in the 5th round, wait. Use your 4th round pick on someone else.

The other theory is about targeting your players and then going to get them. The Seahawks coveted Russell Wilson. They showed great discipline in waiting to the 3rd round to take him. Think about how different that franchise is if Wilson isn’t there, but Nick Foles or Kirk Cousins is their QB. They got very lucky that someone didn’t step in early for Wilson.

The Colts, under Bill Polian, drafted differently than the other 31 teams. They didn’t care about your value. They went and got their guys. It delivered mixed results, but was good enough to keep them winning for a long time.

Kelly will get smarter about drafting and value the more he’s involved in the process. He will figure out how he wants to handle things. There is no one certain way that things have to be done, as long as you find talent and stock your roster.

One area that will be a mystery is trades. Roseman was well-connected around the league and did a great job of working the phones all year long to maintain relationships. This helped him to gather information and have trade partners when the draft rolled around. I don’t think Roseman will be on the phone anymore. I have no idea if Kelly can make deals. Andy Reid was awkward with this. It could be that the new personnel guy will work the phones and be responsible for deals. If the Eagles go with a young guy, that will require some growth on his part. No matter what happens, I would guess the Eagles would be less active with trades this April/May.

The biggest issue is simply finding talent. If Kelly does that well, the other things can be worked out. Jimmy Johnson came straight from college to the NFL and loaded Dallas up with talent. Drafting Troy Aikman was a no-brainer, but he did great things beyond that. Johnson brought in Emmitt Smith, Erik Williams, Leon Lett, Larry Allen, Darren Woodson and on and on. This wasn’t a fluke. Johnson went to Miami and drafted Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas. He knew how to find great players. Bill Walsh left Stanfor for the Niners and also built up an amazing roster. He drafted arguably the greatest QB and WR of all time in Joe Montana and Jerry Rice. Ronnie Lott is another Hall of Famer chosen by Walsh. Go read this great story on Walsh and how he ran the 1986 draft.

Time will tell if Kelly can handle the challenge of being in charge of finding players. He is a smart man and great coach with an eye for the big picture so I tend to think he’ll do well, but this is a risk. There are no guarantees that Kelly the GM will put Kelly the coach in position to succeed.

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