A new model predicts coronavirus deaths will have peaked in the United States on April 15, though the research is a preprint, meaning it has not yet been peer reviewed. The peer review process is a vital part of assessing new medical research and identifies weaknesses in its assumptions, methods and conclusions.

Full updated results are available here: COVID-19 Projections.

When a state is chosen under the drop down menu, the infographic projects how many hospital beds, ICU beds, bed shortage (if any) and ventilators may be necessary in each state to address patient need. Local mandates and travel restrictions are reported as well.

So, why release the estimate if it is a preprint? The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) said colleagues asked them to develop the models at the university's school of medicine and soon heard from other hospital systems and state governments.

"Ultimately, these forecasts were developed to provide hospitals, health care workers, policymakers, and the public with crucial information about what demands COVID-19 may place on hospital capacity and resources, so that they could begin to plan," the IHME wrote.

America is changing faster than ever! Click now to follow Changing America on Facebook and Twitter and stay up-to-the-second on the latest news and smartest insights. The model, published online by IHME, predicts the peak use of hospital resources, including beds, ICU beds and invasive ventilators, for COVID-19 patients in each state. The study used data on confirmed coronavirus deaths from the Word Health Organization (WHO) and local and national governments as well as data on hospital capacity and utilization for each of the states.

While peak dates vary from state to state, the IHME forecasts the national peak for hospital resource use will have been on April 14, assuming that current social distancing measures are observed through May 2020. The next day, according to the model, will have been the peak in deaths for the nation.

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The earliest peak date for hospital resource use is predicted to have been on April 1 in Vermont, while the latest is predicted for May 10 in South Dakota. For COVID-19 deaths, the earliest peak date was April 2 in Florida, while the latest is predicted to be May 12 in South Dakota.

The model also estimates the total number of deaths in each state by August 4. New York is projected to have the most deaths at 21,812, with neighboring New Jersey in second at 6,952 deaths.

After a week of daily updates, the IHME wrote in an update on April 2 that the model has done well in predicting daily deaths. The model has also been updated as stay at home orders are issued across the country and new data becomes available. The initial estimate for total COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. was 81,114 and has increased by less than 1,000 since then to 81,766.

This table was last updated at 6 p.m. on April 24:

PEAK DAILY DEATHS PEAK RESOURCE USE TOTAL ESTIMATED DEATHS BY AUG 4 United States April 15 April 17 67,641 Alabama April 21 April 21 306 Alaska April 4 April 23 16 Arizona April 25 April 22 583 Arkansas April 30 April 28 125 California April 18 April 13 1719 Colorado April 21 April 17 719 Connecticut April 20 April 21 3006 Delaware April 21 April 21 146 District of Columbia April 14 April 21 228 Florida April 2 April 12 1620 Georgia April 29 April 28 2254 Hawaii April 11 April 22 20 Idaho April 15 April 10 64 Illinois April 18 April 17 2138 Indiana April 21 April 22 971 Iowa May 5 May 4 365 Kansas April 29 April 20 318 Kentucky April 28 April 26 529 Louisiana April 14 April 13 1780 Maine April 15 April 15 51 Maryland April 20 April 19 1171 Massachussetts April 19 April 19 4242 Michigan April 17 April 12 3379 Minnesota April 24 April 18 360 Mississippi April 25 April 22 400 Missouri April 14 April 22 438 Montana March 30 April 18 18 Nebraska May 12 May 11 347 Nevada April 7 April 7 247 New Hampshire April 9 April 15 70 New Jersey April 16 April 14 7058 New Mexico April 18 April 13 109 New York April 9 April 8 23232 North Carolina April 21 April 16 356 North Dakota May 15 May 14 356 Ohio April 14 April 19 808 Oklahoma April 21 April 21 335 Oregon April 9 April 12 122 Pennsylvania April 21 April 19 2770 Rhode Island April 27 April 26 611 South Carolina April 9 April 23 283 South Dakota May 16 May 14 93 Tennessee April 14 April 4 233 Texas April 24 April 23 1241 Utah May 1 May 1 241 Vermont April 16 April 13 46 Virginia April 24 April 23 762 Washington April 6 April 5 813 West Virginia April 20 April 17 38 Wisconsin April 5 April 11 356 Wyoming May 5 May 3 161

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