Fury as doctor who said Lockerbie bomber would die in three months admits: He could live for a decade



The cancer expert who predicted the Lockerbie bomber would die within three months of his release from prison has admitted he could live for another ten years or more.

Professor Karol Sikora, who had diagnosed Abdelbaset Al Megrahi with terminal cancer, faced calls to apologise to victims' families last night.

Campaigners reacted with fury to the professor's comments, which they said raised new questions about the decision to allow Megrahi to return to his native Libya.

Abdel Baset al Megrahi is hugged by his mother and daughter at home in Tripoli, Libya the day after his release from Scotland

The damaged aircraft cockpit of Pan Am 103 that exploded killing 270 people over Lockerbie. Megrahi is the only person convicted over the 1988 bombing

Tory MP Ben Wallace, a former member of the Scottish Affairs Committee, said: 'The doctor that carried out this diagnosis owes his regret to the families of the victims.



'He should apologise to the victims for contributing to the release of a mass murderer, who is clearly alive and well in Libya.



Cancer specialist Prof Sikora admitted it was 'embarrassing' that Megrahi has lived much longer than expected

'Throughout this whole sorry affair the victim has been put last behind trade deals, Scotish Nationalist posturing and dubious medical diagnosis.'

Megrahi's release from his Scottish prison cell last August - on the orders of Scottish Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill - was mired in controversy.



Some relatives of victims of the 1988 bombing claimed Megrahi was never as sick as he claimed to be, and criticised the release on so- called 'compassionate grounds' as an unforgiveable mistake.



The Scottish government claimed there was a 'firm consensus' among medical experts that he would die within 12 weeks.



But there was widespread speculation the move was in fact part of an Anglo-Libyan trade deal - and unrelated to his terminal prostate cancer - after it emerged UK Government ministers had pushed for his release.



Cancer specialist Professor Sikora, who assessed the 58-year-old, admitted in comments published yesterday that it was 'embarrassing' that Megrahi has lived much longer than expected.



He told the Sunday Times: 'There was always a chance he could live for ten years, 20 years . . . But it's very unusual.'



THE EXPERT WHO GOT IT WRONG

Karol Sikora is one of Britain's best-known cancer specialists - and one of the most outspoken.

Over his 37-year career, he has never shied away from expressing controversial and, for medics, often unfashionable views.

He has repeatedly condemned the state of cancer care on the Health Service, and criticised the way the NHS has become a bloated 'lumbering monolith'.

He has also irritated some doctors with his interest in complementary medicine, and has argued that doctors should treat well-being and stress as well as patients' ailments.

A former Professor of Cancer Medicine at Imperial College London, the 62-year-old is the Dean of Britain's first independent medical school at the University of Buckingham.

After obtaining a double first at Cambridge he gained an influential insight into the U.S. health system at Stanford University, before returning to the UK in the 1980s to direct the Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research in Cambridge.

For 12 years he was clinical director of cancer services at Hammersmith Hospital, West London, where he set up a major research laboratory. He was also deputy director of the former Imperial Cancer Research Fund and chief of the World Health Organisation Cancer Programme.

He has published more than 300 scientific papers and written or edited 20 books - including the standard postgraduate textbook for cancer treatment. Today he still works at Hammersmith as a consultant oncologist.

Along with the public-funded research, he has an interest in private medicine. He is medical director of Cancer Partners UK, a company building a nationwide network of cancer clinics.

He lives in Buckinghamshire with his wife Alison, a practice nurse, and they have three grown-up children.



And he admitted: 'It was clear that three months was what they were aiming for. Three months was the critical point.



'On the balance of probabilities, I felt I could sort of justify (that).'

He denied he came any under pressure to deliver the diagnosis, but admitted: 'It is embarrassing that he's gone on for so long.'

'There was a 50 per cent chance that he would die in three months, but there was also a 50 per cent chance that he would live longer.'

He later clarified his comments, saying there was an 'enormous variation' in how cancer progressed.

He told the Daily Mail: 'I really thought he would die much sooner than he has. All indications were that the disease was progressing rapidly.



It would have been very convenient if he had died within three months but he hasn't and I will have to live with that.'

The suggestion that Megrahi, the only person convicted over the deaths of 270 people in the 1988 bombing of Pan Am flight 103, could live another decade, was rubbished in Tripoli.



Sources said he was now relying on alternative medicine to battle prostate cancer, and would be unlikely to be alive next month to mark the one-year anniversary of his release.



Dr Jim Swire, who lost his 23-year- old daughter Flora in the bombing, said Professor Sikora had been wrong to later issue a second prediction that Megrahi would die within four weeks.

'My personal criticism of Karol Sikora would be that he was unwise when he said Megrahi might have only four weeks to live.



'I thought it was very unwise for anyone to put themselves in the same situation the second time, particularly something that was very difficult to predict.'



Dr Swire accepted that Megrahi's condition may have improved markedly thanks to expensive treatment paid for by Libyan government.



'I would imagine the world's best experts on prostate cancer were called in by Tripoli to advise on this case,' he said.







