NBA Daily: Is Kevin Knox The Sleeper In The Next Tier? https://t.co/cwHC9P5jgn pic.twitter.com/CjIi199PUJ — Steve Kyler (@stevekylerNBA) June 12, 2018





Kevin Knox came into his freshman year as one of the nation’s standout prospects. With an NBA frame, length, (6'9, 213 lbs, 6'11.75 wingspan) and versatile skills at the combo forward, he offers a player archetype many teams are looking for this June. Kentucky fans were elated last 4th of July when he announced he’d signed with Coach Calipari, who offered him a chance to lead UK at his dream position, the wing three spot, as Knox idolizes Kevin Durant. He perhaps disappointed somewhat, without much pop or explosiveness, few if any advanced moves, an inconsistent motor, and some struggles with defensive awareness and effort.

He has good feel on his shot, and a solid floor with a lot of room for improvement. Without a great change of direction or speed, or a great post game, he’s limited a bit to catch and shoots, pull ups, off screen jumpers, and runners. If run off his spot he usually takes 1-2 predictable hard dribbles into traffic for a floater or a foul, but it’s often not pretty. He isn’t a skilled passer yet with many more turnovers than dimes.

Yet this week, as he makes his rounds for team workouts, ESPN's DraftExpress has moved him up to their 9th overall prospect! ESPN's own Mike Schmitz raised eyebrows when he said this on Twitter yesterday:

I prefer Knox to both Mikal and Miles Bridges. Will bet on an 18-year-old 6'9 combo forward with a 9' standing reach and some shooting versatility. Needs to get tougher but impressive skill base. He's also over a year younger than Michael Porter Jr. https://t.co/QnrclCIJPk — Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) June 12, 2018

If you're a Sixers fan, this might be a bit alarming. After all, we at Liberty Ballers had both Bridges above Knox on our big board. So what might we be missing that the expert sees? To be sure, Knox isn't the "best player available" with the 9th pick. So I think the answer is in his room for improvement. He has big shoulders, long arms, can shoot off-screens, and contest shots. To my eye, he was noticeably quicker in high school. Was it the competition? Did he add weight? Was he hurt? Was it growing pains? I suspect he can really add strength to his base to help him in many aspects of the game. Schmitz describes him as having a high center of gravity, a polite way to say "top heavy," or "chicken legs." But it's kind of true. With his shooting and frame that may still be enough to be worth the top ten pick according to experts though. He was one of the best players in the country this year, and amazingly, doesn't even really have many skills yet. Not a cross over, spin, a great step back, in and out, or even a polished post game. Just a great body and a good jumper. But with Ben Simmons in town, and Brett Brown's "pace and space" system, a good jumper at least gets you an interview, right? Plus we don't want to overlook the next Jayson Tatum or Donovan Mitchell.

Let's head over to our huge analytics department for info and help our Interim GM, Brett Brown. Maybe some stats can help us make sense of this apparent conundrum, courtesy of Front Office Eye, who did a great breakdown on Knox:

Stats:

Year PPG RPG APG FG% FT% BLK/STL TS% EFG% oRTG/dRTG 17-18 15.6 5.4 1.4 44.5 77.4 .3/.8 55.6 51 109.4/102.8

Year WS/40 OBPM DBPM 17-18 .133 3.4 1.4

Scoring

Past Season Synergy stats (Percentile ranking)

Spot up Catch & Shoot (guarded/unguarded) Off Dribble Off Screen Isolation Transition PnR Scoring Around Basket 58 44 (33/57) 82 53 10 49 85 62

Passing and Handle:

Year Assists Turnover Assist% Turnover% USG% 17-18 1.4 1.7 8.7 14.1 24.6

Defense

Spot Up PnR Ball Handler Off Screen Isolation 62 15 83 76

Courtesy of Tankathon here are some sets of comps to college prospects playing similar combo forward roles:

Paul George, Harrison Barnes, Mo Harkless, Aaron Gordon

and another set:

Tobias Harris, Jayson Tatum, Khris Middleton, Miles Bridges

Statistically, he looks to me somewhere below guys like George, Bridges, Barnes, Harris, Tatum, but above guys like Harkless, Middleton, Gordon. Although prospects like Bridges, Barnes and George were a year and a half older in this comp.

Jumpers

Using The Stepien Shot Chart combining: "short midrange," "long midrange," + "NBA 3’s", here is how he looks vs. some players expected to go in the late lottery range:

Miles Bridges: 97/260, 37.3%

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 69/177, 38.98%

Mikal Bridges: 89/227, 39.2%

Kevin Knox: 114/284, 40.14%

FILM WORK

Let's leave the data geeks for now and join the tobacco chewing old school scouts down in the film room.

Mechanics:

Amazing look at his form from the SEC Championship game, 13.08 mark on this clip. This is really pretty.

But his shot isn't always precisely the same. Check this one out, below. His right arm here is not in a right angle, and he's not fully extending. Little inconsistency on the form.

The great right angle on his shooting arm turns acute and he launches like a catapult. Yikes. He doesn't always do it. It seems like maybe when he needs a bit of extra power, or on well-contested shots that is more likely. It may seem like we're nit-picking a bit here. His 3pt, TS, and FT percentages all project well. But without a versatile offensive arsenal to date, it is essential he be a very good shooter in order to really contribute early in his career, as the rest of his game and his body develops. And even more important if they don't.

Here is a look at his free throw.

Points to work on:

1) Right angle on all versions of the shot: pull up, and set shot. (Maybe lower body strength will help here).

2) Fully extending his shooting arm. He can sometimes go about 85-90% and not fully extend.

3) Occasionally his shooting arm drifts to the right during/after the release

Only Point 1 is a potential problem for him. Keep an eye out during our film work below to see how well his right angle and follow through holds up. I'd mention it and work with him on it, but I wouldn't take on any big overhauls unless he really struggled his rookie year, then take it up come next summer.

Catch and Shoot:

Not a great percentile on these per Synergy, (44th) but it did seem like a focal point of a good UK offense to get him these looks:

Contest on D, than a hop catch 3 from deep range.

Doesn’t need much room, catch and shoot. See the little bit of an acute angle on this one? His shooting wrist gets too close to his shoulder.

Sliding to his left for the catch, then spot up J. Pretty. What team couldn't use this?

Runs from right to left, catch and shoot 3.

Big time clutch shot over a contest on cross court 3. Excellent wide stance and toe tap for momentum. He’s really polished here. He’s a better shooter from deep than prospects like Tatum, Middleton, Aaron Gordon, Jaylen Brown, were as freshman; this alone makes him worth a decent look in the late lottery range next week.

Off Screens

Coach Cal ran him ragged off screens since he isn’t a guy who can get you an ISO bucket. Below are key components of the team's offense this year.

A big shot off screen not there yet. He didn’t look comfy (he would hit a monster And-1 finishing with his patented floater and nailed his clutch FT’s in this one, though).

Here's his best Reggie Miller impersonation. He's learned a lot about reading screens by February. He sometimes gets branded with a low B-Ball IQ, but I think offensively, his ability to read screens and "think himself" open may go a bit overlooked. A patient and cerebral NBA coach may be able to tap into the crash course in screens Knox received this year, and hope he can apply his learning to the defensive end as well.

Sideline out of bounds, his J.J. Redick impersonation for the mid ranger.

Pull ups + ISO’s, Step Backs, etc.

Kevin Knox, 4-17 out of isolation this year



His game all about spot-ups (35% of offense). Catch and shoot (38%), catch and pull up (43%), catch, drive into runner (8-13), catch, drive to hoop (4-10), per Synergy — Jonathan Wasserman (@NBADraftWass) February 17, 2018

Get lotta questions on Knox



Reasons to be hesitant: 4-of-18 out of ISO all year, 36th percentile on drives from spotup, 49th percentile in TRAN, Per 40: 1.8 asts, 6.7 rebs, 1.0 steals



Reasons for optimism: 6-9 size, 45% on pullups, 41% floaters, 1.9 threes per 40, STILL 18 y/o https://t.co/a8ovTbGxGT — Jonathan Wasserman (@NBADraftWass) June 12, 2018





Pull up left, very little separation. Is he athletically limited? He has a newborn baby deer thing going sometimes, and apparently huge feet but the touch is there. I don't believe he is comfortable in his growing body just yet. Very little looks comfy going left.

A two dribble pull up off screen action vs LSU. Some right handed players prefer pulling up while driving left. KD for example, loves pulling a left-handed dribble into his right handed shot pocket. Knox doesn't look nearly as comfortable using his left to drive, or to pull up, for what it's worth.

Turn and face ISO from nail, short. I think his "pizza pie" acute angle leads to shots where he is quite short or quite long sometimes. UK fans will recall a few surprising bricks or even the occasional inadvertent bank shot from him this year. I believe him frequently waffling between a good right angle (more leg power) and an acute angle (more arm/back power) on his form is why. It makes it hard to know exactly how much force to use upon release.

Fake left, 1 dribble pull up right side. Beautiful.

Taste of his ISO creation off dribble game. A "meh" cross-over with a decent but not explosive first step. But of course, his great touch. Let the clip keep playing for the beautiful step back.

One dribble pull up from left to right. Looks much better in that direction. He can really benefit from some ball handling work, and shooting off the dribble with both hands. Excitingly, I think that will be low-hanging fruit for him in terms of some quick improvements.

Another glimpse of the way too hard or too short effect he gets from waffling between right angle and the catapult.

Gorgeous hop into the hesi-pull up jimbo trey (as Knox's idol said a year ago about Markelle Fultz.) When a 6'9 18 year old can do this, everybody has to pay a lot of attention to him.

I love this. After already pump faking and driving in for a few mid-range pull ups, he uses the advanced lateral step for the 3 ball in crunch time of the biggest game of the year. Wax on wax off all year so that it's all instinct when under pressure.

Step Backs

Off-dribble creation step back.

Step back 3, one of his prettiest moves of the season. He can do this. Why wasn’t there more? Notice he gets some separation on the move, but more importantly, sufficient power from his legs to not lose his mechanics much.

(Noticing a theme?)

And while it's a great pro-level move, the footwork can even be improved upon. His jab step is really deep. If he jab steps half this distance with the right leg, he can actually generate a much bigger push back and create more room. The way he does this, it looks like stretch 5's Ersan Ilyasova or Dirk Nowitzski. They often utilize a step, stop and slower lean backwards; as opposed to the more explosive or sneaky hop back, ala James Harden. I suspect with a much stronger base, he'll be able to add these moves in time.

(Cool fun fact, the defender is MLB exec, Omar Minaya’s son, Justin Minaya who is 6’5.)

Floaters

25/61

40.1%

Knox is excellent at the floater. His dad played WR in the NFL, his mother, a varsity volleyball player at FSU, and he is a former HS quarterback, with excellent "touch." This presents itself on some lob passes, as well as jump hooks in the low-post.

He can use his size and deliver these over either shoulder. The awkwardness of trying to defend someone who is so rangy and also comfortable shooting this semi-unorthodox shot allowed him to draw plenty of fouls on plays similar to this one.



A gift and a curse. He has the ability to put his head down and get these shots off sometimes with ease. But he can be very predictable with it, and appears to make his mind up without taking in new info by a defense sometimes.

Floater with the right while driving left. Glass half full, it's a funky shot that catches the defense off-guard. Half empty and his reliance upon it is evidence of his lack of ambidexterity and limited offensive arsenal. I smile when I see these shots above because I know how much he models Kevin Durant, and it feels like a very talented 18 year old trying to do something really hard that only one of the best players of all time does smoothly. But remember young Kobe Bryant imitating Michael Jordan and finding it silly or endearing? And then one day it was uncanny. So who knows.

Two pretty floaters in a row, one driving, and one from the post over the left shoulder.

Finishing

Kevin Knox: 66/97, 68%

Miles Bridges: 74/115 64.3%

Mikal Bridges: 101/145, 69.65%

Look at this extension. Looks like Ben Simmons or Jayson Tatum. Even when he doesn't get the step on a defender, his horizontal reach gives him margin for error to still finish. Tantalizing. This is why some smart people see true offensive upside.

Here is a jumper with the acute angle catapult. Seems to explain many of his really short or long bricks. But watch the finish with length after the board. Just a jump stop and he reaches easily beyond the big. He uses floaters to finish a lot also, as we've seen.

Really hard to stop a guy this long whose jumper you have to close out on.

Trouble

Here we’ll see some of why he was a brutal 10th percentile in ISO and other places to focus development. Knox’s lack of shake, and effectiveness out of the triple threat , or with the dribble leads to lots of bungles, and a poor asst/TO ratio.

More heart than head on these plays. Let the clip play through 2:15 for about 5 bungles.

Going left usually isn't a strong option at this point.

Lost in Transition starring Scarlett Johansson and Kevin Knox.

Some great anticipation but then shows his lack of ball skills in the open court. A couple concise moves would be helpful. It’s followed by a trailer 3 he whiffs on badly. His transition game needs work, just 49th percentile.

Defense:

I believe if Kevin Knox had pockets in his basketball shorts, there are times he would put his hands in them on defense. — Kyle Tucker (@KyleTucker_SEC) March 3, 2018

That's harsh but it captures how lots of UK fans felt about his effort this season. I won't focus too much on defense for this piece, but since I watched a lot of film, I'll at least give you my impressions.

He can get routinely obliterated on screens and doesn't always exhibit a ton of effort to avoid them.

He can lose focus or gamble. Here, overzealous, goes for a steal. Gets burned for 3.

He can make some great defensive plays, usually with his length and adequate foot speed. Here he shows some BBIQ to read ball-you-man and gamble correctly.

Here is a minute or so breakdown of the biggest concerns of all. The final play on this clip, could have cost them another game in March Madness. Overall, I do not think defense is a strength, and I'm not very optimistic for his future as a pro on that end. I think he may struggle and his foot speed may relegate him to the stretch four role, as opposed to his preferred 3. If you're drafting him with the idea of playing positionless basketball, this might be a reach.

On the other hand, i was startled at how often quicker wings had him in ISO and decided simply not to challenge him. Maybe his huge stance and wingspan alone is sometimes an adequate deterrent? Pros like Jrue Holiday or Kemba Walker won't be as passive though.

Some fair skepticism:

Outside of Jaylen (95th percentile NBA athlete conservatively, hyper smart off the court, self aware, good situation) who is the last lottery wing/four type with physical tools/size/ATHL but without feel/defensive IQ who has really hit, even if they project to shoot capably? — Cole Zwicker (@colezwicker) June 13, 2018

Tobias Harris comes to my mind, but as we saw above, he had a better freshman year than Knox and at about 10 lbs heavier, perhaps better equipped for a PF role.

Upside

Here are some miscellaneous plays I believe show some real reason for optimism in terms of offensive upside.

Deceleration and a dish. A change of speed is within reach! Someone call Drew Hanlen for a summer of fun with cones.

LeBron realized late in his career how you can just drive left, then spin back right, and without beating your man get to your spot. And of course, Knox has the touch. Glass half full: he didn't realize the mismatch he so often had, just wait until it clicks! Half empty: perhaps his mental makeup is partly responsible for disappearing in stretches of games and not staying aggressive. In reality? Probably some of both.

Unselfish heady play, goes for the box out, rather than the ball and still wins the race for the the dunk. Positive signs for his transition game to flourish with conditioning and strengthening as he comes into his body.

Under duress and moving with a drift, nails it. This is pro-level and unstoppable.

Conclusion

As a top 10 RSCI ranked recruit, Knox was Kentucky’s best player for much of the year, and leading scorer at just 18 years old. While we were hard on him in this piece, nitpicking a largely successful and functional jump shot, and scrutinizing his flaws, context and age are critical to keep in mind. I believe he does have exciting upside. I think there is a better chance he can become a top 25 NBA player than players like Miles Bridges and Mikal Briges. And if I could get my hands on that type of upside in the range of picks 9-14 I'd strongly consider it; he wouldn't be the "best player available" on June 21st, but he might have the most room for improvement. He would appeal to me most if I were a team in desperate need of star power like the Knicks, the Hornets, or the Clippers. The Clippers would probably be the best fit for player and team here, as he'd be a high upside pick with no. 12 or 13, while being given lots of time to develop on the floor in lower pressure environments.

He would appeal to me somewhat less with a 52 win team like the 76ers or a 46 win team like the Nuggets who can less afford a temporary liability on the defensive end, even in the short term, as they quest for title contention. But maybe he could replace a departing player like an Ersan Ilyasova.

As always there are feedback loops. The better Knox shoots, the more opportunity he'll have to slash and draw fouls. I believe the absolute key to his game will be how much can he develop his court awareness and lower body strength without sacrificing athleticism. I'd want him to spend his summer strengthening his legs and core, ball handling, and studying film. From a shooting perspective, I'd show him the times he's losing his right angle, and how that may be leading to some very long and very short misses or accidental bank shots. I believe adding lots of muscle and balance to his lower body may conveniently reduce the breakdowns in his shot mechanics, while also helping other weaknesses like defense and rebounding.

He seems like he'd be a fun player to work with as his template has a wide range of outcomes. If he can surprise us and offer a serviceable combo of interior plus perimeter defense, while adding to his extremely limited offensive arsenal, All-Star is certainly within his range of outcomes.