Coronavirus Trends as Told with Data by Someone Who Has No Idea How Viruses Spread Krag Klages Follow Apr 1 · 4 min read

Editorial note: I am not an expert. I like data. Looking at graphs and having more information brings me comfort in times like these. This is not meant to be predictive nor should anyone take any of this as “truth.”

Graphical Note: I’ve included a sample of states for ease of reading the graphs, but I call out where other states fall if there is enough data to trend.

Source: All graphs were created using data from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data

This a simple excel of Covid-19 positive results by state, normalized so that Day 1 is when each state had 100 confirmed cases (i.e. Florida had 100 cases 16 days ago while California had 100 cases 24 days ago).

There are three main groups forming.

The “Accelerated” Group:

Michigan and New Jersey

For most states, including New York, it has taken 10 days or more to hit 1,000 confirmed cases after hitting 100. Whether it is increases in testing or an explosion of cases for some other reason, Michigan hit 1,000 only 4 days after hitting 100 and for New Jersey it took only 6 days.

Michigan and New Jersey

The “Unknown” Group:

Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas*

*not shown in this group: Indiana, Connecticut, Missouri, Tennessee

New York took a sharp turn around 11 days after hitting 100 cases. No other states on this trajectory have done so.

But there does seem to be some separation between Group A: Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Florida and Group B: Louisiana, Texas, Georgia, and Ohio around Day 11, especially between Georgia and Florida, who were on almost identical paths.

Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas*

*not shown in this group: Indiana, Connecticut, Missouri, Tennessee

It feels like this group could still very much be in control of their own destiny — the ability to flatten this thing out or the possibility of mirroring New York.

For states not yet hit hard, these two groups also may be ones to watch — the response from government and citizens, how much testing is being done, and how much movement is happening within each state might all have effects on the next 5–10 days.

The “Slower” Group:

Massachusetts, Colorado, California, and Washington*

*not shown in this group: Maryland, North Carolina, Mississippi, Wisconsin, Virginia, Nevada, Alabama, South Carolina, Utah, D.C., Kentucky, Oregon, Minnesota, Arkansas

These four states (and many others if early trends hold) have shown a much slower growth rate, which is encouraging.

However, Massachusetts took a jump up around Days 12 and 13, most likely due to the close proximity and travel corridor to New York, which could be an important reminder for why staying home and not traveling if at all possible is so important. Any state or city could jump if COVID continues to move across borders.

Massachusetts, Colorado, California, and Washington*

*not shown in this group: Maryland, North Carolina, Mississippi, Wisconsin, Virginia, Nevada, Alabama, South Carolina, Utah, D.C., Kentucky, Oregon, Minnesota, Arkansas

I think this data is encouraging, given that timelines have been normalized and most trajectories aren’t nearly as pronounced as they could be. But there is still a lot of caution to be heeded, as Michigan has been hit hard fast and there are still signs that some states are veering up that were on a slower trend with others.

Bottomline: The same as every other COVID graph anyone’s ever looked at…Wash your hands, thank a health care worker or the person checking you out at CVS, and most of all, STAY HOME. Not taking unnecessary travel very literally saves lives right now.