Let’s face it: Trump is behind. I’ve waited for the nonsense after the conventions to die down but it seems like the race has stabilized at a 5-6 point gap. I’ve heard all the typical complaints that polls are skewed but look where that got the wishful thinkers who wanted Romney to win. I’m inclined to believe the average of the data that’s out there. It’s easy to project one’s views onto other people but many Americans remain bewildered and horrified by the rise of Trump. It’s possible a majority see him as a “racist,” an accusation that is steadily fading in power, but remains the modern equivalent of being called a “commie.”

Hillary has a coalition of single/professional white women, all minorities voting as a bloc, white male professionals, and a majority of college degree holders. The reality is that this group is big enough to win and that the 2008 and 2012 elections conclusively demonstrate that “real Amurica” can no longer carry elections alone. There are still enough Americans who have comfortable lives but are afraid of losing what they’ve got. So their strategy is to turtle. Those who are invested will double down on the status quo instead of supporting an upstart.

This race is by no means over, I suspect the debates will decide this contest—but if there isn’t a big change it looks as though Trump will lose.

A personality like Trump was necessary to tear down the increasingly out-of-touch opposition party but he might not end up being the one to rebuild it. So I’ve been putting some thought into what a successful populist coalition would look like.

The core democrat constituency is obviously minorities and white yuppies, no use trying to convert large numbers of them. The last desperate attempt of establishment republicans to be viable in a presidential election was to reach out to “natural conservatives” in the Hispanic population but all they accomplished was to alienate their base.

The most obvious low hanging fruit to grow a populist coalition are the discontented members of the alt-left. Trump has focused his campaign rightly on the ills of blue collar Americans but I am surprised he hasn’t done more to exploit the opportunity revealed by Bernie Sanders’ unexpected popularity. While successful professional whites may be core democrats, there are millions of frustrated educated whites who can’t get ahead. They are the product of the last few decades of elite overproduction. Just mentioning college loan forgiveness and restrictions on H1B visas would be a huge draw. They’re already unhappy with the deal they’ve gotten from society but also feel that associating themselves with a blue collar movement will destroy whatever remaining chances they had of getting that lucky break into office cubicle wonderland. To consider defection, they need reason to believe they’ll get a better deal than they’re getting now and that’s a pretty low bar.

The next group to focus on for defection might be those we call “model minorities.” The new populist party is an explicitly white movement but like any non-majority political faction it needs to form coalitions with other groups to achieve common goals. Ironically when the aspect of racial identity and racial interests is out in the open, rather than concealed and hinted at with “dog whistles” it will be more accepted. Model minorities’ interests align better with working whites than they do with Blacks and Latin Americans. This reality doesn’t seem to have dawned on them yet, they are still reacting to culture wars era paranoia. The facts though, have a way of catching up. Asians, Indians, other successful ethnic groups already occupy an awkward place in the democrat coalition, reminded of their “privilege” just like whites and blocked and discouraged from taking full advantage of affirmative action policies. They are already told they aren’t “real” minorities. They already suffer the same problems as whites when high crime groups move into their suburbs and devalue the property. Model minorities are the ones who own most of the small businesses in dysfunctional neighborhoods. The Sikh family that owns the corner store and the Koreans who run the liquor store can’t indulge in the same ivory tower thinking that predominates in yuppie land.

Beyond trying to grow a populist coalition, time is in its favor. As the system continues to stagnate more will be disaffected enough to split away from the old system. Every year, there’s fewer people living comfortable middle class lives. The sprawling system of universities continues to exacerbate elite overproduction with every graduating class. Even white professionals will begin to change their minds when they can no longer just shove all their problems on those who can’t afford to live in gated communities and shop at whole foods. Right now the upper middle classes and their masters quite cynically use minorities to promote their interests over the working and lower middle classes. They know there’s far too few of them to win elections in a democratic system so giving the “real” minorities unlimited bread and circuses gets them the votes they need. However, the complete rejection of Bernie Sanders by the monolithic Black vote is a sign of things to come. For the first time, a lot of democrat whites recoiled in shock as their preferences were flatly vetoed by those they had looked down on as loyal pets. As minorities get more powerful their handlers will find themselves less able to control them. When they finally lose control they will be forced to reconsider their alignment.

There is of course the possibility that no constructive political solution will be arrived at. We stand at a crossroads. The next few years will decide whether present issues can be resolved within the system or whether conflict will simply escalate. In the case of a Hillary presidency, the status quo could be sustainable if she, like Obama, mostly limited her antagonism of red America to “clinging to guns and religion” mockery. But looking back on her poor judgment and reckless belligerence as secretary of state, I have a feeling she will overextend. Furthermore, even were she as benevolent as can be hoped for, the laws that ban free association for whites while allowing it for everyone else and legal disincentives for healthy family formation will continue to chip away at the legitimacy of the social contract. If Trump wins this, there will be nearly half the country that sees him as an illegitimate autocrat. There will be an ugly struggle for power no matter who prevails in November.

See Also: Trump and Sanders Are Part of the Same Political Movement

See Also: Smart Racial Realism