TORONTO, ON - APRIL 17: Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates his 1st of two goals against the Boston Bruins in Game Four of the Eastern Conference First Round during the 2019 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena on April 17, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Bruins defeated the Maple Leafs 6-4. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)

Toronto Maple Leafs: At Worst, Auston Matthews Is the 3rd Best Player in the NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs: At Worst, Auston Matthews Is the 3rd Best Player in the NHL by James Tanner

Regardless of how the offseason plays out, the Toronto Maple Leafs can rest easy knowing that Auston Matthews is on track towards a massive campaign.

As the dog days of the offseason continue to chug along, the Toronto Maple Leafs can only hope that October arrives sooner rather. It’s not simply so that the pressure on the Mitch Marner camp raises so a deal can finally be completed.

Rather, it’s so the team can see what a fully healthy Auston Matthews can provide to the Leafs for 2019-20. The short answer: he will improve his offensive output dramatically.

The longer answer is that through a combination of a William Nylander reunion, both of which are motivated following the previous season’s shortcomings, and continued maturity of the 2016 1st overall pick, should more than likely result in big things for Matthews.

Of course, if he can remain fully healthy for the first time since his rookie campaign, that would tremendously help to fully realize this.

But make no mistake about, even if Matthews misses some time with injury, there are plenty of other signs leading to a monster offensive season for him.

Solid numbers despite unstable conditions

Last season, Matthews registered 37 goals, 36 assists, and 73 points (a new career-best) in only 68 games played. What’s more impressive is he finished the year at 1.07 PPG pace, meaning he could have recorded roughly 88 points (44 goals, 44 assists) if he stayed healthy. Not bad for a guy who spent most of the campaign playing alongside the likes of Patrick Marleau and Kasperi Kapanen.

Additionally, his underlying numbers saw mostly improvements all across the board. He posted a 53.11 CF%, 52.23 FF%, a 50.86 SF%, a 54.18 SCF%, and a 54.19 HDCF% at even strength. Despite this, he was on the ice for more goals against than for in the same situation, resulting in an uncharacteristically low 0.989 PDO.

Photo from C.J. Turtoro.

There is some method to the madness though. As alluded to earlier, Matthews spent a lot of last season with new linemates very frequently, ranging from Kapanen and Marleau to Andreas Johnsson and Tyler Ennis.

Combine this with limited time spent alongside Nylander until late in the season, it makes his overall output all the more impressive.

Photo from Natural Stat Trick.

Speaking of Nylander, the low amount of time he and Matthews spent on the ice together the past campaign is comical. Playing just 282:58 minutes together at even strength, the two combined for a 55.28 CF%, a 54.60 FF%, a 52.79 SF%, a 54.04 xGF%, a 58.14 SCF%, and a 57.98 HDCF%. With impressive underlying stats like that, it’s baffling that the two spent 584:10 TOI apart.

In the playoffs, Matthews did post impressive offensive numbers (5 goals, 1 assist, 6 points) but once again saw his linemates shuffle throughout the postseason.

As a by-product of Nazem Kadri’s suspension, Matthews was forced to spend time away from Nylander, had different linemates each night, and saw his underlying numbers subsequently regress.

Photo from Natural Stat Trick.

As shown above, the underlying metrics of Matthews and Nylander together in the 2019 playoffs are mostly strong in comparison to when they were apart.

Despite the small sample size of just a single game played together, they were at least on track to continue their dynamic play. Don’t let the GF% and xGF% fool you, the two could have easily gotten the offensive results with more playing time.

2019-20 season outlook

So how does all of this signal a big offensive season for Matthews in 2019-20?

Going back to earlier, Matthews and Nylander are expected to spend the majority of next season playing together.

This will be nothing but good news for both, especially with a motivated Nylander eager to silence his critics. Combine that with their other linemate likely being Johnsson, who posted solid numbers across the board alongside the aforementioned players, should result in a solid line for the Leafs.

Having a stable line should help boost Matthews confidence, who has already seen improvements in the underlying metrics each passing season. Entering his 4th season with a new contract that will pay him over $11.5 million a season should also help galvanize him to build on his past success.

With the youth movement now in full swing, the keys to the offence now belong in the hands of Matthews, Marner, and Nylander (as well as the veteran in John Tavares).

With some key players expected to miss time to start the campaign recovering from injuries, there will be ample opportunity for the aforementioned players to produce.

Put it all together, and it should not be a surprise once Matthews post strong numbers all across the board this coming campaign.

It may not be to the level of leading the NHL in scoring, but he should finish in the top-20 in points by seasons end at the very least. Should he remain fully healthy, it will only further solidify his chances of posting massive offensive numbers.

All stats unless otherwise noted are from Hockey-Reference.com and Natural Stat Trick.

All salary numbers are from Cap Friendly

Could this result in his first-ever 50-goal campaign? Perhaps he could finish the year with over 90 points for the first time in his young career? It’s entirely possible if under the right circumstances both at 5v5 and on the power-play.

Whatever his offensive numbers end up being, there’s no doubt Matthews has all the tools and factors needed to output a big 2019-20 season.