Early vote: California Republicans in dangerous turnout territory

With Scott Bland and Maggie Severns

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races — and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news — sign up for Campaign Pro today. (https://subscriber.politicopro.com/proinfo)


THE MONEY PIT — “California turns into a House GOP nightmare again,” by Campaign Pro’s Elena Schneider: "Republicans poured millions of dollars into California in September hoping to pick up a pair of House seats. But once again, they have spent October desperately fighting to protect seats they already hold. ... 'The playing field has expanded in a surprising way into the Issa and Denham seats. There’s no question those have gotten tight,' said Robert Stutzman, a Republican consultant based in the state. 'California is a state where Trump is doing structural damage to Republicans, and Issa’s district is the best evidence of that in the state.' ... Republican operatives fret that on top of the bad environment, country club Republicans — who flocked to Mitt Romney in 2012 but have been turned off by Trump — may simply not show up, especially given that California’s top-two Senate race features two Democrats. Paul Mitchell, a voter-data expert based in Sacramento who tracks early ballot returns, said there are already concerning trends developing for the GOP’s endangered House incumbents." Full story.

LATE SHOW — Senate Majority PAC puts money back into Florida, by POLITICO Florida’s Matt Dixon: “After originally canceling $6 million in TV commercials backing U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy's Senate campaign, [Senate Majority PAC] has decided to again spend a portion of that money in Florida. ... The group, tied to outgoing Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, is making a ‘seven figure’ transfer to Floridians for a Strong Middle Class, a pro-Murphy super PAC that has already been spending on TV ads. The transfer is being unofficially blessed by New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, the ascending Democratic leader who has diverted money from the party's campaign arm to races in Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina, Democratic sources said.” Full story.

SHOW-ME STATE OF THE RACE — Missouri Senate deadlocked in Post-Dispatch poll: GOP Sen. Roy Blunt takes 47 percent to Democrat Jason Kander's 46 percent in a new Mason-Dixon poll commissioned by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, which also shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton 47 percent to 42 percent. More here.

FINAL FEC DEADLINE — “Clinton super PAC raised $18 million in 19 days,” by POLITICO’s Isaac Arnsdorf: “The main super PAC supporting Hillary Clinton raised almost $1 million a day in the first part of October. Priorities USA Action raked in $18 million between Oct. 1 and Oct. 19, according to its latest report with the Federal Election Commission, the last glimpse before the election. That's more than the group raised in any full month except August and September. The influx fueled a $24.8 million spending spree in the same period.” Full story.

— SUPER PAC-TION — Major congressional super PAC fundraising: Senate Majority PAC brought in $19.3 million and had $13 million on hand — Senate Leadership Fund raised $18 million and had $2.1 million on hand — NextGen Climate Action raised $10.3 million and had $5.6 million on hand — ESAFund raised $5.5 million and had $8.1 million to spend.

— HOUSE MONEY — DCCC raised $10.2 million from Oct. 1-19, including $5.5 million online: The House Democratic committee spent heavily ($34.1 million) and ended with $21.6 million on hand for the final run to Election Day. The DCCC's fundraising got a big boost from President Barack Obama and first lady Michelle Obama, who were the strongest email senders of the 19-day period — including one signed by the president that was sent the morning after Donald Trump’s 2005 Access Hollywood tape broke, on the prospect of Trump getting elected and working with a GOP Congress. The average digital donation was $28.

— NRCC raised $8.3 million: The House GOP committee also spent $28.4 million and had $26.5 million on hand as of a week ago.

— Stay tuned Friday for a pre-general House battleground FEC chart.

Days until the 2016 election: 11.

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FIRST IN SCORE — Club for Growth debuts TV ad in LA-04: The Club for Growth's super PAC is hitting the air with a new TV ad backing Republican Mike Johnson, who's running for the open House seat that GOP Rep. John Fleming is vacating in Louisiana. "Mike Johnson. Who is he?" the narrator asks. "A family man and leading defender of the Constitution, who fought against tax increases proposed by both parties in Louisiana. Why is he running for Congress? Because he's convinced that Washington career politicians are morally and financially bankrupting our country." The super PAC is spending $100,000 to air the ad in the Shreveport market. Watch the ad here.

— The Club has endorsed Fleming's run for Louisiana's open Senate seat, too, but its super PAC hasn't gone up the air there yet. The Club has instead devoted the lion's share of its resources to backing GOP Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, a former Club president locked in a tough reelection fight against Democrat Katie McGinty. The super PAC has committed a total of $3.3 million to the race, said David McIntosh, the Club's president, with the Club itself spending another $500,000. An allied super PAC, National Horizon, is spending another $1 million.

NEW THIS MORNING — Congressional Leadership Fund and American Action Network are out with four new Obamacare- and Pelosi-themed ads in House races. In KS-03, CLF says calls out Democrat Jay Sidie for supporting Obamacare. “Sidie called efforts to repeal it ‘shameful,’” the ad’s narrator says. “Medicare slashed on Kansas seniors, middle-class families left with the bill.” The spot is part of $800,000 buy in the district that will air on cable, broadcast and digital platforms in Kansas City, starting today. Watch the ad here.

— In TX-23: A new CLF ad goes after former Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego for voting “to keep taxpayer subsidies for his own health care, but voted against making Obamacare more affordable for you.” The spot is part of a $2 million ad buy that will air on broadcast, cable and digital platforms in San Antonio and Midland-Odessa markets. Watch the ad here.

— In PA-08: CLF casts Democrat Steve Santarsiero as tax-obsessed, who would “ work for them [Pelosi] and we’d keep paying the price,” the ad’s narrator says. The spot is part of a $2.3 million buy, airing on broadcast, cable and digital platforms in Philadelphia from Friday until Election Day. Watch the ad here.

— In UT-04: Another CLF ad implies Hillary Clinton will be president, saying Republican Rep. Mia Love will “will definitely work against Pelosi and Clinton.” The spot calls Democrat Doug Owens “a trial lawyer” who wouldn’t represent their values. The spot is part of $350,000 ad campaign on broadcast and cable TV in Salt Lake City. Watch the ad here.

— In PA-16: An AAN ad says Democrat Christina Hartman, “just like Hillary Clinton,” supports “allowing Syrian refugees into our country, even though we can’t properly screen them for terrorist ties.” The ad is part of $700,000 buy in the district, with the ad airing on Lancaster-Harrisburg broadcast and cable stations. CLF is also spending $100,000 on a mail program in the district. Watch the ad here.

DEBATE NIGHT — “Dems demand apology for Kirk comments on Duckworth's heritage,” by POLITICO’s Seung Min Kim: “Republican Mark Kirk invoked Democrat Tammy Duckworth’s ethnicity as she explained her family’s military background during the Illinois Senate debate Thursday — prompting an outcry from national Democrats who called Kirk’s comments a ‘racist’ attack. Duckworth, a veteran who lost both her legs fighting in the Iraq War, was making a case for having a senator who has fought in a war when she detailed her family’s lengthy military background.” Full story.

MORE ADS — U.S. Chamber of Commerce up in Pennsylvania: The group is up with a new ad attacking Democrat Katie McGinty as pushing the “far-left agenda,” saying she supports “higher energy costs,” “largest proposed tax increase in Pennsylvania history,” and “government-owned healthcare, more extreme than Obamacare.” The spot is part of a seven-figure buy and will run in Pittsburgh and Wilkes Barre on broadcast TV stations. Watch the ad here.

SPOTLIGHT ON KANSAS — Yoder says he’ll support Trump despite “crazy” statements: GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder was caught going off-message on Donald Trump during a recent event with Cub Scouts. Asked who he’ll be voting for for president, Yoder replied: “'A-ha! Which parent put him up to that? Is there a hot mic in here? Well, I’m a Republican, so I’m going to be supporting the Republican nominee, no matter what crazy things he says.' Yoder campaign spokesman C.J. Grover said the remark was intended to be lighthearted," but Democrats pounced on the statement Thursday. More from The Washington Post here.

— Poll check: Mitt Romney won KS-03 with 54 percent of the vote four years ago, but Trump has trailed in both Democratic and Republican internal surveys of the suburban, high-education district all year. And like they have in so many districts around the country, Democrats have recently made Trump a bogeyman in anti-Yoder ads here as well.

— “With 10 days to go, Democrat Jay Sidie is hiding,” by The Kansas City Star’s Steve Kraske: “Jay Sidie has gone underground. The Democratic candidate for Kansas’ 3rd District congressional seat is not here, not there — not anywhere. At the most crucial moment of his campaign against Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder, Sidie won’t return phone calls. He won’t return texts. He won’t debate, and he’s not available to answer questions. Public events? Can’t find any. Jay Sidie’s become the ghost candidate.” Full story.

THE PERMANENT CAMPAIGN — “Ward aims to oust Flake in 2018,” by POLITICO’s Seung Min Kim: “Failed Senate hopeful Kelli Ward is planning another bid to oust an Arizona Republican next cycle, announcing on her radio show that she plans to challenge Sen. Jeff Flake in a primary during his 2018 reelection bid. Ward unsuccessfully ran against John McCain this year, losing to the veteran senator by about 13 points in the August primary. But Ward reasons that Flake is a more ripe target than McCain, the former Republican presidential nominee who has served Arizona in the Senate for five terms.” Full story.

PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ — "Clinton eyes Biden for secretary of state," by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere: "Joe Biden is at the top of the internal short list Hillary Clinton’s transition team is preparing for her pick to be secretary of state, a source familiar with the planning tells POLITICO. This would be the first major Cabinet candidate to go public for a campaign that’s insisted its focus remains on winning the election, and perhaps the most central choice for a potential president who was a secretary of state herself. Neither Clinton nor her aides have yet told Biden. According to the source, they’re strategizing about how to make the approach to the vice president, who almost ran against her in the Democratic primaries but has since been campaigning for her at a breakneck pace all over the country in these final months." Full story.

— “Donald Trump Campaign Seeks ‘Voter Suppression,’ Report Says, but It’s Legal,” by The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman and Jeremy W. Peters: “ Donald J. Trump’s campaign set off a wave of concern about its tactics on Thursday after a senior campaign official was quoted describing a sophisticated “voter suppression” effort, a term that usually connotes aggressive attempts to keep people from polling places. The anxiety among Republicans outside the Trump campaign was set off by a report in Businessweekin which the unidentified official used the term to describe the team’s approach to three core groups of Hillary Clinton’s supporters. The report came after weeks of diatribes from Mr. Trump questioning the basic integrity of the election. At a rally on Thursday afternoon, he joked that the election should be called off and he should be crowned the winner.” Full story.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Everyone realized the plane was skidding, but I don’t think there was panic." — Mike Pence senior adviser Marc Short, after Pence's campaign plane slid off the runway at LaGuardia Airport in New York Thursday night.

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