Sentiment toward gold is at such a bearish extreme, it seems as if every market seer is saying it’s time to buy because nearly everyone else has been selling.

Various sources, such as a blog for the financial advice firm HighTower and the investment newsletter Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, have highlighted data from Daily Sentiment Index showing the lack of love for gold. Just 3% of traders were bullish on Nov. 5, said Jake Bernstein, who runs the sentiment-tracking service.

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As any contrarian will tell you, when sentiment is so lopsided, price tends to move the opposite way. That’s what happened in 2011 after the Daily Sentiment Index recorded 98% bullishness on Aug. 22, just as gold US:GCG5 was about to embark on a journey from more than $1,900 an ounce down into the $1,100s. Bernstein calls the 2011 figure, and the one from Nov. 5, “the most extreme we have seen.”

But with many observers drawing attention to the widespread bearishness on gold and using it to advise buying, can it be said that sentiment is really bearish?

Given the tendency of investments to move in a way that confounds and impoverishes the most people, what could the yellow metal do to make fools of the largest number of investors? How about a sudden leap followed by an equally sudden plunge?

There’s a convenient catalyst for such a scenario. Japan is taking steps — seen with some justification to be desperate and reckless — to hammer down the yen and force-feed inflation into the economy. That could prompt its main regional rival, China, to debase its own currency. In fact, China’s central bank on Nov. 21 undertook its first rate cut since 2012, suggesting that the idea has occurred to authorities there.

Such an inflationary race to the bottom, or even the fear of it, could cause gold, a traditional tonic when inflation concerns bubble up, to rally. But the price could come back down as investors realize that an effort to foster inflation in Asia is likely to result in deflation everywhere else. As prices of Asian goods and services plummet, it would drive down prices of their Western equivalents and, eventually, wages, profits and economic growth.

A deflation scare, following close on the heels of an inflation scare, could cause havoc with gold, ultimately keeping the bear market going. If you think gold is due for a more persistent bounce, or if you think you’re nimble enough to catch a spike and get out in time, there are plenty of vehicles to back your conviction.

A closed-end fund whose portfolio consists of gold and silver bullion, Central Fund of Canada CEF, -4.35% , traded at a 9.8% discount to the value of its holdings on Nov. 20, well above the 1.1% average discount that investment researcher Morningstar has recorded over the last three years.

If you want pure gold in a liquid (easily tradable, not molten) form, there’s SPDR Gold Shares GLD, -2.13% , an exchange-traded fund that owns bullion. But it trades almost exactly at net asset value, so you won’t benefit from a discount, as with the closed-end fund.

A better choice for longer-term optimists is Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF GDX, -3.51% , a fund that holds shares of mining companies, not gold itself. As bad as gold has done, miners have fared far worse. Gold is about 40% below its peak in the summer of 2011, while the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Sector Index of mining stocks XAU, -4.30% is almost 70% lower.

Mining stocks are highly leveraged plays on the price of gold; a small move in the metal translates into a big move in a mining company’s earnings. So their underperformance in the last three years isn’t unexpected or unjustified. But the extent and persistence of the weakness is hard to figure.

The price of gold is slightly higher than five years ago, as of Nov. 20, but the mining ETF is off more than 60%. Mining stocks are cheap not just compared to gold but to yardsticks like book value, the intrinsic worth of their net assets.

By those standards, these stocks have appeared cheap for more than a year — and there’s no reason that they can’t get even cheaper. But their bargain prices should provide a cushion for investors willing to hold on for the long haul if gold continues to drop. Moreover, the miners seem likely to beat gold significantly if the old uptrend resumes.

If you just want to flirt with gold, a proxy for the metal like GLD or CEF might be the way to go. If you’re ready to fall in love, GDX seems like a better choice.