What a year this is turning out to be. Just when it seemed like the NFC was just going to wipe the floor with the AFC, the AFC has collectively shown they aren't to be messed with. This week the NFC went just 2-6 against AFC teams. On the year, the AFC is 11-3 against the NFC head-to-head. Heck, the Chiefs alone are 2-0 against the NFC East so far.

As for the Chargers? Well, they seem to be better than expected, but only slightly. The lack of depth was perfectly apparent in Sunday's loss to the Titans. Optimists like to point out that the Chargers are 2 plays away from being 3-0, while the pessimists like to point out that the Chargers are one bad bounce away from being 0-3. As you'll see in the rankings, the Chargers aren't the worst team in the league, nor are they close to being the best. But there's hope for the future.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking AFC East 12.6667 AFC West 14.5833 NFC South 15.3214 NFC West 15.9167 NFC North 16.0476 AFC North 17.6071 AFC South 17.9762 NFC East 21.8810

Last week the NFC East and NFC North were the top two divisions. The AFC East and AFC West have leapfrogged both teams to take the top 2 spots, respectively. Who would have thought to start the year that the AFC West would be so strong?

Stock Rising

Team Week 3 Average Week 4 Average Difference IND 16.917 10.597 6.320 NYJ 22.625 16.583 6.042 CAR 21.438 15.750 5.688 CLE 29.438 23.778 5.660 KC 14.542 10.014 4.528

Colts easily took down the 49ers on Sunday, of course they shoot up. The real surprise here is the Jets. They started out the season as the laughingstock of the league, now they're surprising everyone.

Stock Falling

Team Week 3 Average Week 4 Average Difference SF 7.083 15.347 -8.264 HOU 5.688 11.806 -6.118 STL 17.875 22.972 -5.097 GB 8.521 13.569 -5.048 ATL 9.354 13.778 -4.424

The Colts were at the top of the "Stock Rising" list, and the 49ers are now at the top of the "Stock Falling" list. San Francisco is now decidedly ranked as an average team.

Also worth pointing out: 4 of the 5 teams on the "Stock Falling" list are in the NFC, and 4 of the 5 teams in the "Stock Rising" list are in the AFC.

Subjective Average

Subjective Broncos 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1.333 0.000 Seahawks 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1.667 0.000 Saints 3 6 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 3 4 3 3.833 3.167 Patriots 5 3 3 5 6 5 3 3 3 6 5 4 4.250 2.333 Bears 4 4 7 4 4 6 5 5 4 4 3 6 4.667 3.333 Bengals 6 5 8 6 7 7 6 8 6 5 9 7 6.667 4.000 Dolphins 7 10 5 8 5 8 7 13 9 7 7 10 8.000 4.250 Chiefs 8 7 6 7 8 9 8 11 11 10 6 8 8.250 3.333 Ravens 11 8 11 9 10 3 11 7 7 8 8 9 8.500 2.667 Texans 13 9 12 12 11 10 14 9 8 11 11 14 11.167 -6.917 Packers 12 15 15 10 9 13 10 10 13 9 14 5 11.250 -6.083 Colts 9 12 10 11 13 11 9 14 10 13 10 15 11.417 4.166 49ers 10 13 13 14 15 12 16 6 12 12 12 12 12.250 -8.833 Cowboys 15 11 9 13 12 14 12 12 15 15 13 11 12.667 1.333 Falcons 14 16 14 15 17 15 13 15 14 14 16 13 14.667 -6.334 Lions 16 14 18 16 16 16 15 16 16 16 15 16 15.833 3.167 Titans 17 17 16 17 14 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 16.667 3.333 Chargers 19 19 19 21 20 18 18 19 20 19 19 18 19.083 -1.583 Jets 18 18 17 20 19 24 21 23 18 22 18 24 20.167 7.083 Eagles 23 20 20 23 25 19 20 18 19 18 21 19 20.417 -2.750 Panthers 21 22 25 18 23 20 19 21 21 20 20 20 20.833 6.667 Rams 20 23 22 19 18 22 23 20 22 21 23 21 21.167 -3.167 Cardinals 22 24 21 22 21 21 24 26 25 23 22 27 23.167 -1.500 Bills 24 21 24 24 22 25 22 27 26 24 24 22 23.750 -0.417 Browns 25 26 23 27 24 26 25 28 29 27 25 23 25.667 4.583 Redskins 27 28 30 25 29 29 26 25 23 25 26 29 26.833 -2.750 Steelers 28 25 27 26 26 30 30 24 28 30 27 26 27.250 -1.167 Giants 29 29 29 28 28 27 28 22 27 28 29 25 27.417 -6.417 Vikings 26 30 28 29 30 28 27 29 24 29 28 28 28.000 -3.833 Raiders 30 31 26 31 27 23 31 30 30 26 30 30 28.750 -0.167 Buccaneers 31 27 31 30 31 31 29 31 31 31 31 31 30.417 -1.500 Jaguars 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32.000 0.000

Observations:

The top 12 now consists of 8 AFC teams and just 4 NFC teams. In week 4 last year, the split was 9 NFC to 3 AFC.

Broncos and Seahawks maintain their same rankings as last week. In fact, all sites ranked them the same as last week.

The Titans climbed higher than the Chargers fell. That's good news, right?

With the Browns taking down the Vikings, they shoot up the board. Tampa Bay now takes their spot at second-worst in the NFL.

Jacksonville is playing bad and they should feel bad.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective Jaguars 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.000 0.000 Seahawks 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 0.471 0.000 Broncos 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 0.471 0.000 Titans 17 17 16 17 14 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 0.850 -1.949 Chargers 19 19 19 21 20 18 18 19 20 19 19 18 0.862 -1.159 Saints 3 6 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 3 4 3 0.898 -0.683 Lions 16 14 18 16 16 16 15 16 16 16 15 16 0.898 -0.785 Bears 4 4 7 4 4 6 5 5 4 4 3 6 1.106 0.106 Patriots 5 3 3 5 6 5 3 3 3 6 5 4 1.164 -0.727 Falcons 14 16 14 15 17 15 13 15 14 14 16 13 1.179 0.000 Bengals 6 5 8 6 7 7 6 8 6 5 9 7 1.179 0.000 Buccaneers 31 27 31 30 31 31 29 31 31 31 31 31 1.187 -1.066 Rams 20 23 22 19 18 22 23 20 22 21 23 21 1.572 0.218 Vikings 26 30 28 29 30 28 27 29 24 29 28 28 1.633 0.420 Chiefs 8 7 6 7 8 9 8 11 11 10 6 8 1.639 0.319 Bills 24 21 24 24 22 25 22 27 26 24 24 22 1.689 -0.805 Panthers 21 22 25 18 23 20 19 21 21 20 20 20 1.772 -0.249 Browns 25 26 23 27 24 26 25 28 29 27 25 23 1.795 0.496 Cowboys 15 11 9 13 12 14 12 12 15 15 13 11 1.795 0.882 Texans 13 9 12 12 11 10 14 9 8 11 11 14 1.863 1.034 Colts 9 12 10 11 13 11 9 14 10 13 10 15 1.891 0.450 Steelers 28 25 27 26 26 30 30 24 28 30 27 26 1.920 0.073 Cardinals 22 24 21 22 21 21 24 26 25 23 22 27 1.951 -0.406 Giants 29 29 29 28 28 27 28 22 27 28 29 25 1.977 -0.762 Redskins 27 28 30 25 29 29 26 25 23 25 26 29 2.075 -0.647 Eagles 23 20 20 23 25 19 20 18 19 18 21 19 2.100 -0.185 Dolphins 7 10 5 8 5 8 7 13 9 7 7 10 2.160 0.861 Ravens 11 8 11 9 10 3 11 7 7 8 8 9 2.179 0.064 49ers 10 13 13 14 15 12 16 6 12 12 12 12 2.420 1.558 Jets 18 18 17 20 19 24 21 23 18 22 18 24 2.444 0.568 Raiders 30 31 26 31 27 23 31 30 30 26 30 30 2.488 -0.044 Packers 12 15 15 10 9 13 10 10 13 9 14 5 2.832 1.689

Observations:

Jacksonville, Seattle and Denver did not move at all

Wow, the next two most consistent teams come from smack dab in the middle of the rankings.

Other than two sites, Tennessee was almost a consensus 17th. Interesting since the Titans were the least consistently-ranked team last week in the Subjective Rankings.

Pretty good consensus of the Chargers being right around 19th.

Same with the Lions right around 16th.

Some sites like what they see from the Raiders, while others remain unconvinced.

What's the deal with the Packers?

Objective Average

Objective Broncos 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 3 1.667 1.208 Seahawks 1 1 3 3 9 1 4 2 1 2.778 0.597 Patriots 4 12 5 1 6 12 2 3 2 5.222 -0.222 Saints 6 3 8 4 3 9 8 6 4 5.667 1.333 Dolphins 13 10 2 13 2 6 6 4 7 7.000 2.875 Colts 11 4 6 15 11 7 12 8 14 9.778 8.472 Panthers 5 8 16 17 22 3 3 12 10 10.667 4.708 Ravens 12 30 4 6 4 17 14 5 6 10.889 2.111 Bears 8 27 9 11 7 5 22 7 5 11.222 -1.222 Chiefs 10 9 14 27 5 4 9 11 17 11.778 5.722 Texans 17 17 7 8 8 15 21 10 9 12.444 -5.319 Cowboys 18 13 17 7 10 14 10 15 11 12.778 4.597 Falcons 9 6 12 9 12 23 13 14 18 12.889 -2.514 Jets 14 7 13 26 13 10 5 13 16 13.000 5.000 Bengals 7 19 10 12 14 13 30 9 8 13.556 -0.431 Packers 3 18 20 5 24 18 27 16 12 15.889 -4.014 Lions 16 5 24 16 26 8 20 20 15 16.667 0.458 Bills 24 16 18 24 16 19 7 19 20 18.111 -0.861 49ers 21 22 11 10 17 29 25 18 13 18.444 -7.694 Titans 25 21 15 22 15 16 29 17 19 19.889 1.611 Buccaneers 19 15 25 20 23 20 11 24 30 20.778 -1.403 Chargers 20 25 21 18 25 21 23 21 21 21.667 -3.042 Browns 27 20 19 28 19 22 16 22 24 21.889 6.736 Eagles 15 14 30 23 29 11 28 29 28 23.000 -1.625 Giants 31 11 28 14 30 31 17 25 23 23.333 -2.333 Raiders 30 23 22 31 20 27 15 23 29 24.444 3.431 Rams 28 29 23 29 18 25 18 26 27 24.778 -7.028 Cardinals 29 26 26 30 21 24 19 27 22 24.889 -4.514 Vikings 26 28 27 21 31 26 24 28 26 26.333 -2.333 Steelers 22 24 29 19 28 30 32 30 31 27.222 -1.097 Redskins 23 32 31 25 32 28 31 31 25 28.667 -4.042 Jaguars 32 31 32 32 27 32 26 32 32 30.667 0.833

Observations:

Panthers in the top 10? Well they certainly did embarrass the Giants.

Dolphins third-best team in the AFC? Apparently ...

On Football Outsiders, the Chargers have the third-best offense based on VOA. They also have the second-worst defense. Hooray for balance?

Jaguars are once again not a consensus bottom pick in the objective rankings. Pittsburgh and Washington have also been placed in the bottom by various sites.

Despite that terrible game, the Giants only dropped 2.333 spots in the objective rankings.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective Broncos 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 3 0.667 -1.754 Saints 6 3 8 4 3 9 8 6 4 2.160 -2.583 Chargers 20 25 21 18 25 21 23 21 21 2.160 -2.366 Jaguars 32 31 32 32 27 32 26 32 32 2.261 1.261 Seahawks 1 1 3 3 9 1 4 2 1 2.439 -0.297 Vikings 26 28 27 21 31 26 24 28 26 2.625 -1.676 Redskins 23 32 31 25 32 28 31 31 25 3.300 -4.182 Cowboys 18 13 17 7 10 14 10 15 11 3.392 -2.751 Cardinals 29 26 26 30 21 24 19 27 22 3.478 -1.836 Colts 11 4 6 15 11 7 12 8 14 3.521 -2.108 Browns 27 20 19 28 19 22 16 22 24 3.695 1.407 Patriots 4 12 5 1 6 12 2 3 2 3.910 -1.475 Dolphins 13 10 2 13 2 6 6 4 7 3.972 -1.400 Rams 28 29 23 29 18 25 18 26 27 4.049 -1.400 Steelers 22 24 29 19 28 30 32 30 31 4.237 -1.646 Titans 25 21 15 22 15 16 29 17 19 4.557 1.434 Bills 24 16 18 24 16 19 7 19 20 4.795 0.058 Texans 17 17 7 8 8 15 21 10 9 4.810 0.161 Falcons 9 6 12 9 12 23 13 14 18 4.818 0.820 Raiders 30 23 22 31 20 27 15 23 29 4.947 2.056 Buccaneers 19 15 25 20 23 20 11 24 30 5.287 -2.973 Jets 14 7 13 26 13 10 5 13 16 5.657 -0.280 49ers 21 22 11 10 17 29 25 18 13 6.076 -2.595 Panthers 5 8 16 17 22 3 3 12 10 6.289 -0.566 Lions 16 5 24 16 26 8 20 20 15 6.481 1.250 Chiefs 10 9 14 27 5 4 9 11 17 6.579 -2.842 Bengals 7 19 10 12 14 13 30 9 8 6.751 2.267 Eagles 15 14 30 23 29 11 28 29 28 7.149 -0.367 Giants 31 11 28 14 30 31 17 25 23 7.196 -0.050 Bears 8 27 9 11 7 5 22 7 5 7.405 1.815 Packers 3 18 20 5 24 18 27 16 12 7.564 -0.794 Ravens 12 30 4 6 4 17 14 5 6 8.103 2.907

Observations:

Once again, the Chargers are one of the most consistently-ranked teams. But this time right around 21-22.

Broncos, Saints, Seahawks and Cowboys all doing things consistently well.

Jaguars, Vikings and Redskins all doing things consistently not well.

Last week the Chiefs were the least consistently-ranked. This week a lot of the sites have come up in their rankings of the Chiefs.

Packers also inconsistent in the objective rankings

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Broncos 1.333 1.667 1.500 0.604 Seahawks 1.667 2.778 2.222 0.299 Patriots 4.250 5.222 4.736 1.056 Saints 3.833 5.667 4.750 2.250 Dolphins 8.000 7.000 7.500 3.563 Bears 4.667 11.222 7.944 1.056 Ravens 8.500 10.889 9.694 2.389 Chiefs 8.250 11.778 10.014 4.528 Bengals 6.667 13.556 10.111 1.785 Colts 11.417 9.778 10.597 6.320 Texans 11.167 12.444 11.806 -6.118 Cowboys 12.667 12.778 12.722 2.966 Packers 11.250 15.889 13.569 -5.048 Falcons 14.667 12.889 13.778 -4.424 49ers 12.250 18.444 15.347 -8.264 Panthers 20.833 10.667 15.750 5.688 Lions 15.833 16.667 16.250 1.813 Jets 20.167 13.000 16.583 6.042 Titans 16.667 19.889 18.278 2.472 Chargers 19.083 21.667 20.375 -2.312 Bills 23.750 18.111 20.931 -0.639 Eagles 20.417 23.000 21.708 -2.187 Rams 21.167 24.778 22.972 -5.097 Browns 25.667 21.889 23.778 5.660 Cardinals 23.167 24.889 24.028 -3.007 Giants 27.417 23.333 25.375 -4.375 Buccaneers 30.417 20.778 25.597 -1.451 Raiders 28.750 24.444 26.597 1.632 Vikings 28.000 26.333 27.167 -3.084 Steelers 27.250 27.222 27.236 -1.132 Redskins 26.833 28.667 27.750 -3.396 Jaguars 32.000 30.667 31.333 0.417

Observations:

Overall, the top 12 is still 9:3 AFC:NFC.

Neat, some conference clusters have developed: 5 AFC teams from Ravens to Texans, then 6 NFC teams from Cowboys to Lions, then 4 AFC teams from Jets to Bills.

Chargers have dropped 2.3 spots overall this week. Titans rose 2.4 spots. So they basically swapped positions

Broncos have actually gone up in the rankings this week.

Eagles continuing to fall back to earth

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Broncos 1.333 1.667 0.587 -1.159 Jaguars 32.000 30.667 1.620 0.942 Seahawks 1.667 2.778 1.726 -0.230 Saints 3.833 5.667 1.812 -1.428 Chargers 19.083 21.667 2.015 -1.294 Vikings 28.000 26.333 2.271 -0.608 Cowboys 12.667 12.778 2.603 -1.678 Patriots 4.250 5.222 2.749 -1.039 Redskins 26.833 28.667 2.820 -2.368 Colts 11.417 9.778 2.831 -1.122 Cardinals 23.167 24.889 2.844 -1.033 Dolphins 8.000 7.000 3.110 -0.620 Steelers 27.250 27.222 3.131 -0.855 Browns 25.667 21.889 3.345 1.411 Falcons 14.667 12.889 3.393 0.525 Rams 21.167 24.778 3.411 -0.193 Titans 16.667 19.889 3.443 0.420 Texans 11.167 12.444 3.507 0.184 Raiders 28.750 24.444 4.308 1.604 Lions 15.833 16.667 4.316 0.643 Bills 23.750 18.111 4.390 -0.257 Chiefs 8.250 11.778 4.810 -1.894 Eagles 20.417 23.000 5.105 -0.283 Giants 27.417 23.333 5.339 0.289 49ers 12.250 18.444 5.344 -1.246 Jets 20.167 13.000 5.450 -0.612 Bengals 6.667 13.556 5.652 2.438 Ravens 8.500 10.889 5.679 1.899 Packers 11.250 15.889 5.863 -0.424 Bears 4.667 11.222 5.893 2.143 Buccaneers 30.417 20.778 5.961 -1.263 Panthers 20.833 10.667 6.638 -0.881

Observations:

Broncos' ranking became even more consistent.

In fact, teams in general saw their ranking become more consistent as 21 teams saw their Standard Deviation go down this week.

7 of the 10 most inconsistent teams are NFC teams.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj Bengals 6.667 13.556 6.889 4.431 Bears 4.667 11.222 6.556 4.556 49ers 12.250 18.444 6.194 -1.139 Packers 11.250 15.889 4.639 -2.069 Rams 21.167 24.778 3.611 3.861 Chiefs 8.250 11.778 3.528 -2.389 Titans 16.667 19.889 3.222 1.722 Chargers 19.083 21.667 2.583 1.458 Eagles 20.417 23.000 2.583 -1.125 Ravens 8.500 10.889 2.389 0.556 Saints 3.833 5.667 1.833 1.833 Redskins 26.833 28.667 1.833 1.291 Cardinals 23.167 24.889 1.722 3.014 Texans 11.167 12.444 1.278 -1.597 Seahawks 1.667 2.778 1.111 -0.597 Patriots 4.250 5.222 0.972 2.555 Lions 15.833 16.667 0.833 2.708 Broncos 1.333 1.667 0.333 -1.209 Cowboys 12.667 12.778 0.111 -3.264 Steelers 27.250 27.222 -0.028 -0.070 Dolphins 8.000 7.000 -1.000 1.375 Jaguars 32.000 30.667 -1.333 -0.833 Colts 11.417 9.778 -1.639 -4.306 Vikings 28.000 26.333 -1.667 -1.500 Falcons 14.667 12.889 -1.778 -3.820 Browns 25.667 21.889 -3.778 -2.153 Giants 27.417 23.333 -4.083 -4.083 Raiders 28.750 24.444 -4.306 -3.598 Bills 23.750 18.111 -5.639 0.444 Jets 20.167 13.000 -7.167 2.083 Buccaneers 30.417 20.778 -9.639 -0.097 Panthers 20.833 10.667 -10.167 1.958

Observations:

As down as people seem to be on the 49ers now, it seems the 49ers have a little more to fall.

Chiefs and Chargers are both slightly ranked above their stats suggest.

Yes, the Dolphins are a top-10 team. Who saw that coming this year? Not any of the subjective ranker, most had them 18-23, with NFL.com ranking them 14th to start the season.

The Giants looked bad, yes. But they could be better than they seem.

Don't sleep on the Raiders, Bills or Jets.

As bad as Tampa Bay has seemed, they've been playing a lot better than that. Unfortunately it hasn't translated into wins.

Pundits still way down on the Panthers.

Sources