The Perks of Running a Mock Draft Database

One of the more interested things about keeping tabs on draft prospects, not to mention the absolute best thing about running the 2019 NFL Mock Draft Database, is that I get an in-depth, real-time look at players’ draft stock. I don’t want to call myself the Sultan of Stock, buuuuut… why don’t you just go ahead and call me the Sultan of Stock.

Usually, seeing a draft prospect’s stock rise or fall is totally predictable. Deionte Thompson was already starting to have his detractors before the championship game, then proceeded to get pretty exposed on a huge national stage. No surprise, he is no longer in hardly any draft analysts’ top-10.

Similarly, when Josh Allen destroyed Penn State in his bowl game, you just knew he was going to be a top-5 mainstay. And so it was.

But sometimes players rise and fall and there is no reasonable explanation for it. So here I am, playing True Detective, in an attempt to get to the bottom of why these players are actually moving up and down the mock draft boards. It’s time to go full-Sherlock. Ferrell, not Cumberbatch, because I’m no draft analyst.

And while I’m dissecting these stock anomalies, I suggest you put these draft nuggets to good use by downloading the free MockOut app.

Make your own mock draft and invite your friends into your own mock pool.

Let’s get deductive, shall we?

NFL Mock Draft Stock Mysteries: Risers and Fallers

RISER: Jawaan Taylor, OT Florida

Jawaan Taylor went from being listed in zero first round mock drafts to being considered one of the elite OT prospects and regularly being mocked in the top-half of the first round in the last week or so. But where did this dude’s meteoric rise come from?

There wasn’t one amazing rep that got gif’d to high heavens, like what happened to Cody Ford. There is rarely a single game that justifies such dramatic movement for a prospect on the O-line. And there wasn’t that one instance of a popular draft analyst banging the table for their little-known discovery, then everyone following suit, like The Draft Network’s discovery and touting of Nasir Adderly.

It just kind of happened. The earliest instances of a popular mock featuring Taylor high are from Charlie and Walter at Walterfootball, who have both had him mocked in their top-5 for a few weeks. This win over Michigan didn’t seem to push the needle much, and no new news about the talent of the O-line class would push him up either. Especially with O-line being so difficult to properly scout, I’m going to give it my best guess…

Explanation: One of the big events to happen in the last week was Daniel Jeremiah releasing his first mock of the year, and it featured Taylor in the top-10. When the DJ speaks, the draft community listens.

RISER: Rashan Gary, DE Michigan

Speaking of Michigan and Daniel Jeremiah, another big riser in the last week has been Rashan Gary. Jeremiah has him mocked at #2 to the 49ers (a pick I am personally not into) and he is currently mocked in the top-5 of approximately 23% of mock drafts featured in our database.

His rise isn’t as dramatic as Taylor’s. Gary has been a top-10 mainstay all season. But what’s more curious to me is why Gary’s stock has risen a little bit, rather than dropped a little bit.

He’s lived for two seasons on his rep as one of the most highly rated high school prospects to come into college football. He’s been just fine through his college career, but he has undeniably failed to live up to his lofty expectations. Between last year being a statistical step backward (I know, I know, process over results) and him skipping the bowl game, I see no reason for his rise. Maybe a slight dip.

But instead, he’s found himself in the top-5 and top-10 of mock drafts slightly more often than he was in 2018. So why the mini-bump?

Explanation: This is a difficult one to explain, but I’m going to go with the one thing that might have worked to his advantage since the end of the season- a few notable names (Raekwon, Derrick Brown) decided to stay in school. Perhaps, with this D-line class being slightly less deep than we thought it was a month ago, Gary’s just moving slightly up the ranks through no accomplishment of his own, and his draft stock is seeing the slight increase as a result.

FALLER: Ed Oliver, DT Houston

But those prospects remaining in school seems to have had an opposite effect on our first faller of the article, Ed Oliver.

Granted, he hasn’t fallen too too far. He is still a consensus top-10 player in almost every mock. But considering he was a consensus top-3 player in every mock as the season started, and a top-5 player when the season ended, his continued dip is a bit surprising to me.

Last season, he was playing just as well as his first two seasons, on a per game basis, before a minor injury (and strategic decision to not expose himself to a bigger injury) ended his season prematurely. But he was the same prospect that was a top-3 lock all season.

One thing that happened was Quinnen Williams. I guess you could throw Josh Allen in there too, even though I don’t like him as much as a prospect. But he plays Edge, so that positional importance could give him the boost to at least make it a tough decision. But even then, we’re talking about 4 players. Oliver should still be a top-5 player just as often as he was a top-3 player earlier this year. Yet, since January, he only appears in the top-5 in 23% of mock drafts listed in our database. For contrast, he was in the top-5 in 65% of mocks made before January.

So what gives? Why the downturn?

Explanation: I think this is a case of Out of Sight, Out of Mind. Also, boredom. When someone is locked into the top-5 of mocks drafts for too long, it starts to feel stale. I call it Dominant Talent Fatigue, or DTF (which I’m assuming is an acronym that hasn’t been claimed yet…) Same goes for a guy who puts no new highlights out in the last half of the college season, while others are the shiny new toy on the block. My prediction is that when he blows up the combine, everyone will remember why he was an elite prospect all along, and he will become a top-5 mainstay once again.

RISER: Drew Lock, QB Missouri

Lock has shown himself to be the same player he was throughout college- the strong-armed QB who had trouble with accuracy and the mental aspects of the game. His completion percentages climbed each year he was in school, but he actually felt less dynamic this year than he did in ’17-’18.

Lock was our annual “toolsy” QB who never got the intricacies of the position down in college. Those guys got a really bad name when JaMarcus Russell flamed out, but became en vogue again with Josh Allen’s moderate success in the NFL. Everyone was so ready for Allen to be an EPIC disaster, that when he looked competent and flashed at times, people remembered why teams will draft the tools and believe they can mold them in the pros.

But I can’t accept that Lock is now seen as a surefire first rounder all because Josh Allen had a couple good games. That’s too much of a stretch, even for me. I think Lock’s bowl game sure had a lot to do with it. It helps when the last game everyone sees of you is possibly the best game of your career. But there’s one more thing that I think might explain it even better…

Explanation: Alex Smith. In an unfortunate alignment of team need and available prospects, all the QB-needy teams were selecting top-10. And you’d be hard-pressed to find any draft analyst who thinks Lock is a top-10 player in this draft. But when Alex Smith got hurt, all of a sudden a team in the middle of the round had a need, and just like that, Lock became a possibility. He’s probably not a top-15 prospect either, but that’s a lot more palatable than top-10, especially considering positional impact. And with one more QB-hungry team, demand for available passers goes up for all teams.

FALLER: Byron Murphy, CB Washington

I close with the most baffling faller, and the one who is closest to my heart. Lord Byron Murphy.

I suppose he became “My Guy” when in my latest mock draft, I mocked him to go pick 2 to the 49ers. Let’s just say, I got a bit of pushback from SF fans. Like, nobody could focus on any other pick, because they were so irate I would have him go there.

But I wasn’t alone in mocking him as a top-10 prospect. Granted, I was pretty alone putting him top-3… but he was seen as a regular top-10 prospect by December. And he just got better and better as the season wore on. He was PFF’s top CB (and 7th best overall) from last season, and he displayed the insane, fluid athleticism that separates great CBs from the good ones. His traits translate.

Even more confusing is how Greedy finished the season on a real down note, and yet his draft stock suffered only minimally as a result. I would think that would help bump Byron up a bit, or at least allow his value to hold as a top-10 prospect. And yet, Byron is now seen as more of a top-20-caliber player than the top-10 love he was getting in December.

So what might have happened?

Explanation: Honestly, I have no idea. No off-field incidents, no negative effects from other players declaring or returning, no team needs being re-shuffled, no poor testing or anything. He’s just slipping, and there has been no reasonable explanation for it. Perhaps we all overreacted when he was balling out, and put him a bit too high, and this dip is just the prospect stock market correcting itself? That’s the only conclusion I can draw. But I will continue to mock him high until he gives me reason not to.

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