David Jackson

USA TODAY

POUGHKEEPSIE, N.Y. — If the polls are right, Donald Trump's only real opponent in New York is the expectations game.

The Manhattan real estate mogul is seeking to crack 50% in congressional districts throughout his home state during Tuesday's primary, and to nail down all 95 New York delegates to the Republican convention — and his rivals are sure to cast anything less as a disappointment.

"We have to win by big numbers!" Trump told thousands of cheering supporters Sunday at the Mid-Hudson Civic Center in downtown Poughkeepsie, later urging voters to give him a "landslide."

While he retains a large lead over Ted Cruz in GOP delegates overall, Trump wants the Empire State to offset gains that the Texas senator has made in state conventions in recent weeks.

Also seeking to rally from an April 5 loss to Cruz in the Wisconsin primary, Trump has campaigned in New York by attacking the delegate selection process as a "corrupt" and "rigged" effort to "steal" the nomination from him.

"Lyin' Ted Cruz can't get votes (I am millions ahead of him) so he has to get his delegates from the Republican bosses," Trump tweeted. "It won't work!"

Trump's opponents, Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, have all but conceded the popular vote to Trump in New York, though each is looking to pick off a few delegates as part of their effort to deny him a first ballot win at the July convention in Cleveland.

Cruz picked up 14 delegates in Wyoming during a state convention this weekend, telling supporters there that Trump would lose a general election badly to Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Kasich, who plans to spend New York primary night in Maryland, which holds its primary April 26, said the delegate selection rules are clear, involving state conventions as well as primaries and caucuses, and Trump should stop whining about them.

"I mean, come on," Kasich told CNN's State of the Union. "Act like you're a professional, be a pro.”

During his rally Sunday in the heart of the Hudson Valley, Trump said he would beat the "crooked" Clinton easily, and also bashed Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders. ("I refuse to vote for a communist.")

Trump currently has 744 delegates to Cruz's 559, according to the Associated Press, followed by ex-candidate Marco Rubio (171) and Kasich (144).

There are complexities involved in acquiring New York's 95 delegates.

Trump will need to top 50% statewide in order to claim all 14 available at-large delegates; otherwise, Cruz and Kasich will get a share if they top 20%.

New York's 27 congressional districts offer three delegates each. Trump must win more than 50% of the vote in each district to claim all of those delegates. If he gets less than half in any particular district, the second place finisher in that district picks up a delegate.

"The real issue is whether he gets over the 50% mark in every congressional district," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Poll, which gives Trump a big edge in the popular vote.

Murray pointed out that more than half of the state's congressional districts are located in the heavily Democratic New York City area, and those districts tend to have low turnout in GOP primaries. Has Trump's get-out-the-vote effort targeted low-turnout areas? "It's so hard to tell." Murray said.

Cruz and Kasich are seeking to block Trump from winning the 1,237 delegates he needs to claim victory on the first ballot, setting up a contested convention to begin in Cleveland on July 18.

Certainly Trump supporters, many of whom waited for hours along Poughkeepsie's Main Street to get into Sunday's rally, expect a big win home field win on Tuesday.

"If he does win handily in New York, that will get the Trump train rolling," said Kathleen Holback, a retired budget manager who lives in Cortlandt Manor, N.Y.

Betsy Maas, a business consultant who lives in Union Vale, N.Y., said there's only one reason Trump is campaigning so aggressively in New York, rather than states with future primaries: "He really wants to get the maximum ... he really needs the maximum number of delegates."

Trump had a notably busy Sunday, starting in Staten Island to accept an award from the head of the New York Veteran Police Association. He then spoke at a Richmond County Republican Lincoln Day Lunch and took a tour of the New York Military Academy before heading to Poughkeepsie.