Jonathan Woetzel and Jeongmin Seong say the 21st century belongs to Asia, home to over half of the global population. It will be an “Asianised” world, with Asians seeing themselves as the centre of the universe – Europe had seen its day in the 19th century, and America was omnipresent throughout the last century. Given the current development, by 2040, Asia “is likely to generate more than 50% of world GDP, and could account for nearly 40% of global consumption.”

The authors point out that “this progress reflects the integration of at least four ‘Asias,’ each at a different stage of economic development – and each playing a unique role in propelling the region’s global rise.” They believe the “differences among the four Asias are complementary, making integration a powerful force for progress.” In other words, a country’s asset or success would compensate for the disadvantage or failure of another. Would it work?

The first Asia is China – which has been dominating the continent in recent years, due to its “Belt-and-Road” Intiative, an infrastructure project from Asia to Europe. The second grouping – “Advanced Asia” – makes up of the two economic powerhouses: Japan and South Korea.

The third grouping – “Emerging Asia” – includes a “diverse group of small emerging economies that provide not only labor, but also growth potential, owing to rising productivity and consumption.” The fourth grouping – “Frontier Asia and India” – has the “lowest average share of intraregional flows, amounting to just 31%.

Economists, like the authors, claim the moment for Asia has arrived, citing Parag Khanna's book "The future is Asian". Many predict that in a decade or two, at least three of the five largest economies in the world will be in Asia: China, Japan and India. This would affect Europeans and Americans more profoundly than they would like to think, especially since they feel these influences are increasingly beyond their control. But should they be envious and worried?

Highlighting the “four” Asias and their impressive figures, the authors say “what makes these flows work is Asia’s diversity.” As Asian countries are so diverse, they share little in common, that binds them together. While East Asia embraces Confucian values, Southeast is one of the most diverse regions in the world with a rich, turbulent history, which is also marked by ethnic and religious conflicts. Geopolitics in South Asia is complex and unstable with India and Pakistan fighting each other over Kashmir.

Despite enviable economic growth, many Asian countries are mired in debts. Ethno-nationalism is rife, with leaders whipping up jingoism to stoke fear and resentment, to distract citizens from failed policies. The higher the ethnic homogeneity of a country, the lower its level of minority tolerance and openness. If a state focuses on appealing to a homogenous population, it ignores or discriminates against minorities. Tensions and unrest could undo Asia’s economic success.

Many countries have historical grievances that remain unresolved: Border disputes between India and China and likewise between India and Pakistan; territorial claims by China in the East and South China Seas.

What speaks against the "Asian century" are geopolitics and the number of conflict-prone countries in the region. China, Japan and South Korea are the world's largest economies, and they are often at loggerheads with each other. South Korea has not come to terms with Japan’s atrocities during World War II, and Japan resents China’s rise, whose expansionist policy has instilled fear in Asia. North Korea's nuclear capabilities have alarmed Japan and South Korea, etc.

India has come a long way in reducing poverty and improving living standards for a large segment of its population. But it continues to have the world’s largest number of people – approximately 300 million – living in extreme poverty. Population growth and environmental degradation have not been on Narendra Modi's list of priorities. Pakistan's alliance with China raises India’s heckles.

Many countries in Asia are seeing an arms race. Japan under Shinzo Abe had revised its pacifist constitution, which allows his country to be more assertive militarily.

While China is aspiring to outdo the US, Beijing may be too preoccupied with domestic issues, like economic growth and social stability. The trade war with the US has taken a toll on economic growth. It remains to be seen how the leadership is going to tackle protests in Hong Kong and other challenges it faces.

Europe, despite weak growth, demographic decline and political paralyses, may still be in a more enviable position than Asia. Growth alone does not make a country great, but its soft power and the respect it commands in the international community.