House Speaker Paul Ryan is pushing to ease some drug-related sentencing requirements. | Getty Ryan pushes sentencing reform in face of skeptical GOP

House Speaker Paul Ryan is facing a major obstacle in his months-long quest to pass criminal justice reform: unenthused House Republicans still skittish about looking soft on crime.

The Wisconsin Republican for weeks has repeated his personal desire to move a bipartisan package that would include allowing well-behaved nonviolent prisoners to be eligible for early release and easing some drug-related sentencing requirements.


It would mark a major accomplishment for the speaker, and a chance for Republicans to show racial minorities they care about issues of social justice — plus a salient, positive message countering Donald Trump’s racially charged bid for the White House.

But the odds are decidedly long. With Trump advocating for controversial policies like systematic “stop and frisk,” and the protests in Charlotte, North Carolina, against police-involved shootings causing racial tensions to flare, Ryan’s conference is not eager to vote on the matter. An internal GOP leadership “survey” last week taking House Republicans’ temperature on the issue showed that most members were lukewarm at best.

That means that if Ryan wants to make a push for criminal justice reform after the election, he will have his work cut out.

“It’s not an easy thing to make these reforms, and the [Judiciary] committee has taken some time doing it; now they’re taking time educating members on it,” Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said Monday of a package of bills drafted by the Judiciary Committee. “It is a priority for the speaker. There are concerns … so we’re getting all the questions answered.”

The Judiciary panel last year passed 11 bills to reform federal sentencing laws and improve the prison re-entry system. While the package would not eliminate mandatory minimum sentences, it would significantly reduce sentences for nonviolent drug offenders. It would also create a program to reduce recidivism rates.





The politics of criminal justice reform have soured for conservative supporters. Trump has warned repeatedly of dangerous, crime-ridden cities. And the FBI on Monday released new statistics showing that murders increased 11 percent and violent crimes rose 4 percent in the U.S. last year. Though the rates are still low by recent historical standards, it's enough to make law-and-order Republican lawmakers nervous.

While proponents argue that reform would go a long way toward easing racial tensions, opponents vow they’ll never vote against the recommendations of law enforcement during a time of unrest. (Some Republican lawmakers worry that law enforcement could come out against the pitch, though many national police groups haven’t taken a position.)

Even if Ryan managed to get a bill through the House, the Senate and its 60-vote threshold could stop it in its tracks. Hawkish Republicans, including Sens. Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Jeff Sessions of Alabama, have been sounding the alarm against criminal justice reform. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has shied from the matter because it divides his conference. Democrats by and large support the reform proposals.

Sources familiar with Ryan’s thinking say he’s not ready to relent just yet because of the charged political environment. While he wasn’t able to pass the Judiciary package in September as he originally hoped, Ryan is now eyeing the lame-duck session, by which time tensions might have eased.

“I’m trying to get criminal justice reform done this session of Congress,” Ryan said last week during a speech at the Economic Club of New York. “That train is on the tracks, and I’m hoping we can get that done sooner rather than later.”

The speaker has made second chances and redemption a central theme of his “Better Way” policy agenda, and he views criminal justice reform as key to helping people trying to turn their lives around. During the New York speech, he talked about visiting impoverished communities and being inspired by a onetime drug dealer who became a counselor to addicts, and a gang leader who went on to become an entrepreneur.





“I went in expecting to see the worst of America and I came out realizing I had just seen the best of America,” he said.

Ryan will have the backing of some big-name conservative allies. The Koch brothers and the conservative group Americans for Tax Reform are major advocates of criminal justice reform.

But the skepticism or resistance among Republicans is real. “It doesn’t sell back home right now,” said Rep. Bill Flores of Texas, chairman of the Republican Study Committee. “When you say, ‘Hey, I’m voting for criminal justice reform,’ they’ll say, ‘What? You’re letting prisoners out of prison early?’”

While he personally believes the Justice Committee has crafted some smart proposals, Flores said it doesn’t help that it’s a key priority of President Barack Obama. The situation in Charlotte and elsewhere has also complicated the equation. “I think that what could be a good bill could be perceived differently because of current events,” he said.

Rep. Peter King of New York said he’s struggling to make up his mind on the pending reform measures. “I have friends on both sides of the issue, but I don’t know,” he said. “You’re talking about undoing 20 to 30 years of legislation. What are the unintended consequences?”

Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, who leads the conservative House Freedom Caucus, said criminal justice reform “has real merit” but that there are “also some concerns.”

“If you’re actually going to let people out of prison early, we better make sure they’re not violent people,” he said Sunday on C-SPAN’s “Newsmakers” show. “So let’s do it, but let’s do it right.”

House leaders hosted a series of member and staff meetings during the August recess to familiarize Republicans with the Judiciary bills. GOP leadership sources say these sorts of sessions can move the needle, and they’re hoping that, over time, the conference will come around.

Ryan, however, is racing against the clock. House Republicans will have to fund the government for all of 2017 during the lame-duck session, a contentious issue for the unruly GOP conference. It’s unclear whether Ryan will have the political capital and the bandwidth to do both.