New poll shows Booker lead shrinking in N.J. Senate race

Bob Jordan | Asbury Park (N.J.) Press

TRENTON, N.J. — With about two weeks before a special election, Newark's mayor leads the race to fill the unexpired term of the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D-N.J., though the margin is closer than expected, according to a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday.

The poll shows Mayor Cory Booker, a nationally prominent Democrat, leading with 53% of likely voters vs. 40% for Republican Steve Lonegan. Booker still maintains a double-digit lead, but it has decreased by 3 percentage points from a 16-point lead in mid-August. The drop is within the poll's error margin of ± 4.1 percentage points.

"Statewide positive opinion of Cory Booker has been broad, but not necessarily deep," said Patrick Murray, director of polling at Monmouth University in West Long Branch, N.J. "It's possible that Steve Lonegan's attacks have caused many voters to reconsider their opinion of Booker, even if they don't change their vote." Lonegan ran against New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in the 2009 GOP primary for governor; Lonegan was mayor of Bogota, N.J., from 1995 to 2007 and former state director of Americans for Prosperity.

The Monmouth University poll backs up another recent survey from Quinnipiac University in Hamden, Conn. The Quinnipiac poll, released Sept. 24, showed Booker with a 12-point lead, 53% to 41% among likely voters.

A TV advertisement also released Tuesday is signaling a change of tactics for Booker and comforting state Democrats worried that the race is getting too close.

The 30-second spot begins with an excerpt of Lonegan's appearance at a recent Camden County Republican Committee event when the former Bogota mayor tells the audience, "Yeah, I'm a right wing radical." Later a voiceover says, "He'd privatize Social Security. Shut down government. Ban all abortion. Steve Lonegan, too extreme for New Jersey."

It's Booker's first negative ad, and Rich Shaftan, a Lonegan campaign senior staffer, said it shows that Booker is panicking.

Booker spokeswoman Silvia Alvarez disagrees.

"After weeks of constant personal attacks and misleading negative ads against Mayor Booker, Steve Lonegan still finds himself behind in the polls," she said. "We think it is important for New Jersey voters to know his record on the important issues of this race."

Shaftan said Lonegan has momentum that won't be slowed because of Booker's new commercial.

"It's a weak ad. Steve is a conservative. That's not news," Shaftan said. "Steve is doing great and that's based on what is coming back from all the people who do polling for me. People for Lonegan just don't shut up. The intensity level that you get is very high and it's growing."

Democrats have enjoyed a monopoly in electing U.S. senators for decades. Clifford P. Case in 1972 was the most recent Republican elected.

Not surprisingly, Booker is running strong among the state's Democrats, with 88% saying they would vote for him if the election were today. By contrast, 83% of Republicans say they would vote for Lonegan. The poll shows that a plurality of independents — 45% — are in Booker's corner.

Monmouth pollsters talked to 571 likely voters by telephone Thursday to Sunday: 38% were Democrats; 29%, Republicans and 33%, independents. Among New Jersey's registered voters, about a third are Democrats, 20% are Republicans and almost half are not affiliated with either party.

When asked if Booker is more interested in the national stage or serving New Jersey, 45% believe he has his national profile more in mind while 35% believe he has the state's interest at the forefront. Another 12% believe he wants both equally.

Turnout for the Oct. 16 election may be an issue: Only 29% of those polled said they would choose the special election if they could vote only then or Nov. 5, when voters will choose the state's governor, lieutenant governor, state senators and General Assembly.

"We've seen the gap narrow, and it is possible the (U.S. Senate) race will be closer than first expected," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "But we focus on just one thing: Who is going to win? And by that standard, Booker is still a heavy favorite."

Sabato said he rates the seat as "safe Democrat." Republican Jeff Chiesa, whom Christie appointed, has held the seat since shortly after Lautenberg died and is not running.

"In politics you never rule out anything, of course, but an upset of Booker would be one of the most startling in recent history," Sabato said.

Contributing: Martha Moore, USA TODAY; and John Schoonejongen, Asbury Park (N.J.) Press