If he doesn't get his way, he's going to wreck everything for all of us.

If he doesn't get his way, he's going to wreck everything for all of us.

Danny Vinik: What’s the current state of the budget showdown? Stan Collender: Technically, it's a big mess. Congress and the president are supposed to agree on 12 appropriations bills for every year. The new fiscal year starts in October 1, and none have been agreed to. In fact, none are even close to being agreed to. What Congress has got to do in the next three weeks [ed. note—this interview was done in early September] or so is come up with an agreement on total federal spending—that's defense and domestic—that they haven't been able to do for the last nine months. DV: What about a three-month extension via continuing resolution? SC: The extra three months doesn't help at all. Everyone's hoping that something will happen in the meantime, a foreign policy issue, an economic situation, something that will change the calculus so that it becomes easier for people to move from their established positions. But in an election year, especially when you've got 17 Republican candidates running around the country trying very hard to appeal to the same group of very conservative voters, it's hard to see how the situation is going to get anything better. It's more likely to get much, much worse as time goes along.

SC: I don't think it actually worries Republicans…From what I can tell, for a lot of Republicans, particularly Tea Party Republicans, a government shutdown is the equivalent of a campaign event. It helps them get reelected.

Here's a depressing read to start your week off. Politico's Danny Vinnik interviewed renowned budget expert Stan Collender, who formerly worked for both the House and Senate Budget Committees and writes for Forbes on budget issues and generally knows how all this stuff works. And he is really, really discouraged about where a small band of Republican nihilists is taking the country right now.Some other key things he points out: contrary to what Republicans say they want out of this, shutting down government actually makes President Obama very powerful, because he's the one guy who gets to decide what government functions are essential, and thus who stays on the job. If he really wants to put the screws to Republicans and make this hugely painful, he shuts down air traffic control and there goes air travel and air shipping and commerce and the economy. Now, he's a responsible kind of guy and isn't likely to do anything that drastic, but as Collender points out, if he wants to make more mischief for the Republicans putting him in the position, he has ample opportunity. Does that mean Republicans might rethink this whole thing?He doesn't see any way out of the current threat, and he doesn't see any way to avoid these threats in the future. "For one of the few times in my career, I can see a shutdown. I just don't see how they can avoid it, and I don't see how they stop it once it starts." To make matters even more depressing, if we somehow manage to make it out of this immediate crisis without a shutdown, there's even tougher and more dangerous stuff looming just a few short months away.