The shadow climate change minister, Mark Butler, says if state governments don’t veto the Turnbull government’s national energy guarantee, and if the policy passes into law, Labor will ramp up the level of emissions reduction in the event it wins the next federal election.

Butler says Labor has been “crystal clear” in discussions with industry stakeholders, and with state governments, that it will use any mechanism, either one of its own, or one it inherits, to drive 50% renewable energy by 2030.

In an interview with Guardian Australia’s Politics Live podcast, Butler says it is not relevant at the moment whether federal Labor supports or opposes the government’s new national energy guarantee, because the Turnbull government will not be in a position to implement it if the states veto it.

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“As a matter of process, Malcolm Turnbull has chosen the process forward,” Butler said. “He cannot do this without getting the agreement of all the state governments.”

He said the states would ultimately make or break the model and federal Labor would not be drawn in to “saying yea or nay about a particular mechanism which is not designed – there’s not any design there”.

“All that we have is a piece of political cover to attack the renewable energy industry and, in that sense, we are going to oppose that.”

Butler said the current level of hostility from the states, particularly South Australia, was entirely understandable given the prime minister had “ambushed the states with a thought bubble” and had attacked the states with “base politics”.

He said the objections to the national energy guarantee, thus far, went beyond the Labor premiers. “It’s not just Labor governments. Will Hodgman has been pretty negative in his commentary about this.

“The Tasmanian government has said at the moment they are not in a position to express a view, there’s much more detail they want to see. They are not in a position to express a view at the moment.”

Butler said he could not see a way Turnbull could implement his new energy policy without state backing and he said that, if the states refused to accept the model the prime minister proposed this week, Turnbull should revive chief scientist Alan Finkel’s clean energy target, which had support from the states.

In the event the states overcame their objections and decided to accept Turnbull’s policy, Butler said Labor in government would not settle for an emissions reduction target for the electricity sector of 26% on 2005 levels by 2030, which is what the government was proposing.

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“We’ve been very upfront with everyone, with industry, in any forum I speak to, the states, and anyone who is listening really, that whatever mechanism we come up with, be it an emissions intensity scheme or a clean energy target or something else that Malcolm Turnbull ultimately is able to agree with the states and industry, either way, we are going to use it to deliver 50% renewable energy by 2030,” Butler said. “I have been crystal clear about that, as has Bill Shorten.”

The energy minister, Josh Frydenberg, extended an olive branch to the states on Thursday by seeking their input for a round of detailed modelling on the new policy that will be undertaken between now and when the Council of Australian Governments meets in November.

With South Australia leading the charge against the policy, Frydenberg has also spoken to his state counterpart, Tom Koutsantonis, in an effort to defuse the row.

The prime minister has presented his new policy – which would impose reliability and emissions reductions obligations on electricity retailers from 2020 – as a “game changer” and an opportunity to end the decade-long political war over climate and energy policy.

Asked on Thursday what he do in the event the premiers said no, Turnbull said: “Let’s focus on getting them to say yes”.