I’m ready to trade it. I don’t want it. I want it to be a

defenseman who can play in the NHL…yesterday. The fourth overall pick in the

2016 draft belongs to Edmonton and I couldn’t make it belong to someone else

fast enough. But, am I undervaluing that pick? Have Oiler fans so used to drafting

at the top of the order that we now have unrealistically low opinions of the

riff raff taken in that second grouping of players?

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This is, effectively, what Reid Wilkins of 630 CHED asked me

the other day while I was on his show with Woodguy. The discussion about the

pick is really all over the place. Edmonton has so many different options

available to them. Chiarelli already said, just hours after the lottery was

finished, that he had four or five teams calling him about the pick. The number

of different scenarios that could play out on draft day are really almost

infinite.

One thing we can count on, the Oilers GM will have his

actuarial tables out trying to determine exactly what kind of value the other

picks and players that other teams propose in exchange for that pick are really

worth. You see it in every draft, GMs and their assistants pull out that sheet

that tells them whether it makes sense to trade down X spots to gain Y and Z

picks in return. Peter Chiarelli and gang are going to know those tables inside

and out before June 24th, that can be guaranteed.

But, are Oiler fans really undervaluing that pick? Yeah, it’s

entirely possible we are.

After drafting 1,1,1,7,3,1 in consecutive drafts, there is a

very good chance that we aren’t giving the value of the player to be taken and

the pick itself its proper due.

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It’s absolutely true that the last time the fourth overall

pick was traded, the return was Ruslan Fedotenko (coming off a measly 26 point

season) and two second round picks. It was also the 2002 draft, which wasn’t a

particularly strong draft. It was also from a time before players on ELCs

mattered immensely to the success of NHL teams.

Since the advent of the salary cap and lower ages of

unrestricted free agency, the pick has never been traded by the team that owns

it. Players in the four-spot have been moved, but not the pick itself. It has

value, immense value.

Embed from Getty Images Marner and Tkachuk both to be 4th overall picks?

The fourth overall pick has yielded these players over the

last 10 years:

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2015 – Mitch Marner

2014 – Sam Bennett

2013 – Seth Jones

2012 – Griffin Reinhart

2011 – Adam Larsson

2010 – Ryan Johansen

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2009 – Evander Kane

2008 – Alex Pietrangelo

2007 – Thomas Hickey

2006 – Nicklas Backstrom

Ten years of fourth overalls has net various teams five

forwards and five defensemen. Just giving this brief history of picks a quick

glance, maybe it would be prudent to take a forward at this position in the

draft over a defenseman. Every single forward taken in the last decade at this

spot is (or is tracking) to be at least a quality top 6 forward and in some cases

became impact offensive performers. Pietrangelo leads the charge of blueliners

taken here, but there are some serious stragglers (sadly the Oilers went after

that guy at the last draft).

The bias towards forwards at the top of the draft is real,

and the player it seems most likely to be taken with Edmonton’s pick is winger

Matthew Tkachuk (of THOSE Tkachuks). The kid scored 30-77-107 in 57 regular

season games with the Knights this year. He’s not bad.

He has hockey flowing through his veins, he plays on a great

team, and he’s already a 6’1”, 200 pound power forward with soft hands. There’s

a reason Chiarelli’s phone is ringing off the hook. This kid will be an

expansion draft exempt, high-end prospect who plays for a great producer of NHL

players and will also be a priority for the American National team.

So, when Edmonton goes about the process of trading that

pick and consequently the opportunity to draft the best draft eligible player

in the CHL, let’s not undersell the value the Oilers will need to get back in

return.

Ruslan Fedotenko and some magic beans aren’t going to cut

it. If Edmonton does move that pick then the return has to be much more

significant than that, because the odds of that pick turning into a quality

forward happen to be pretty damn high. If Edmonton can’t get the player they

want, they can’t pull a Reinhart and take the next best thing. They would be

better off drafting a Tkachuk and monitoring his value as he continues to

develop.



