About the author

Tomi Kovanen, more commonly known as "lurppis", is one of Finland's most prominent Counter-Strike experts. Kovanen started his career as a player back in 2004, retiring in early-2012. During his active years, Kovanen represented teams such as hoorai, Team ROCCAT, 4Kings and Evil Genuises.



Following his retirement, Kovanen has continued to be an influential member of the scene, sharing his expertise as a columnist, analyst, commentator and a frequent user of Twitter ( Tomi Kovanen, more commonly known as "lurppis", is one of Finland's most prominent Counter-Strike experts. Kovanen started his career as a player back in 2004, retiring in early-2012. During his active years, Kovanen represented teams such as hoorai, Team ROCCAT, 4Kings and Evil Genuises.Following his retirement, Kovanen has continued to be an influential member of the scene, sharing his expertise as a columnist, analyst, commentator and a frequent user of Twitter ( @lurppis ).

These two pan-European teams have faced off on eight maps total since each team made roster moves during the summer player break, splitting four maps online – though even the latest of those will be over there months old by the time of their quarter-final – andwinning three of four maps offline. However, the only meaningful result is the grand final of ECS Season 4 Finals in Cancun, wherewere within inches of clinching a 2-1 series win –’s team were up 15-13 on the deciding map, before losing two straight rounds and ultimately the map in overtime. The team led byknows how to play versus FaZe, and should at least feel confident knowing they can put up a real fight.FaZe have historically not played cobblestone – which they floated in the IEM Oakland grand final, with disastrous results – and their nuke remains largely untested. That opens the door for mousesports, who are a good nuke team, and bested them on the map 16-14 in the ECS grand final last month. Another option would be vetoing nuke in favor of cobblestone – a map mouz has only played twice recently offline, beating North Academy and getting destroyed by Na`Vi, though with better online results – but’s interview in the top 20 player -series suggested FaZe are focusing on strengthening their nuke for now, in hopes of cobblestone being removed to make room for dust2.’s team is perhaps the best team on inferno right now, yet it was the map mousesports held two tournament points on in the ECS grand final.'s side is all-but guaranteed to veto overpass, and FaZe have not historically been strong enough on train to warrant choosing it here – unlessbelieves their 16-4 and 16-3 wins overand, respectively, hold water in a tiny sample size, in comparison to the loss mousesports suffered at the hands of, in the infuriatingly weak terrorist side that saw them give up 13-2 and 14-7 leads, with superstar oskar citing problems with the team’s communications and calling as the issue. It is also worth keeping in mind that mousesports looked good in their narrow loss against, before losing some of the credibility in theirstruggles on the same map, mirage. The other interesting possibility for FaZe would be cache, the map they just beat SK Gaming on and that generally seems to fit their playing style and personnel well.With mousesports choosing nuke and FaZe likely opting for cache or mirage, the second round of vetoes should see cache or train removed from the map pool by mousesports, with FaZe effectively getting to decide which map they want to play. Leaving ultimate decision-making on the favorites’ side like that – in a situation where they also boast a historically stronger and more experienced in-game leader – is a tough spot to be for mouz. While they get the benefit of playing nuke, at most they get two other maps with something like 1/3 chance of winning. To add to their woes, they could not close out the series last time around, and now had similar issues versus QBF in Atlanta.The model of SixteenZero, a recently started Counter-Strike analytics company, suggests FaZe have a plus-75% chance of winning on all maps but cobblestone and nuke. All players from the series have done well thus far at the ELEAGUE major, with GuardiaN and oskar leading the way – but both olofmeister and NiKo right behind, with a much larger gap before ropz and suNny. Without superior tactical approach or a serious win in the pistol rounds department – where FaZe are currently 4-2 to mouz’s 4-6 record, with one lost second round to make the record effectively worse – the underdogs must look elsewhere for separation.The case for FaZe is that they are the better team – in fact, likely the best one in attendance with SK missing boltz – and a roughly expected showing without big mistakes, prolonged problems with the economy or pistol round woes – will take care of business. For mousesports, they would need to play near-perfect Counter-Strike, get an above-average showing from ropz and suNny, and receive help in the form of some mistakes from FaZe’s part. There is a chance here – especially if FaZe still cannot win nuke – but they remain favored to reach the semi-final.2-1Na`Vi looked sluggish in the major qualifier, besting only Quantum Bellator Fire,, and– featuring coachstanding in for– while getting wrecked by mousesports and FaZe in very one-sided losses. At the major they started off with another distressing loss, getting bounced 5-16 by. But after a 16-1 thrashing of’s team bested Liquid in another match, and ultimately overcamein the decider to guarantee a spot in the playoffs. Unfortunately for those of us who love to watchdeep in tournaments, the spark in their form appears to be fool’s gold. Their cumulative score versus top 12 teams, even taking the fnatic win into account, is a woeful 27-55. Some of that is simply a function of losing many pistol rounds, but you can go ahead and ask– who went 0-10 in pistol rounds, but with two second-round wins – whether that helps.On the other hand, Quantum Bellator Fire are a hugely inexperienced group of Russians, withstating their goal was to not go 0-3 at the qualifier, and not knowing what to say at their success thus far. You can check out’s tweet about their open online qualifier to add to the story. The Russians deserve all the success they have had, but it does appear they might just be in over their heads now – after all, Na`Vi is filled with the kind of players who have made a habit of playing at the largest stages the Counter-Strike world has to offer. Their match-up at the qualifier did not exactly help their case – Na`Vi, who otherwise struggled to win games – easily took care of business in a game that ended 16-8 and only appeared competitive in the first half.So far Na`Vi have been crushed the teams they are superior to, even though they have struggled against better teams – the kind they would have to knock out later, if they wanted to have any hopes of lifting the trophy on Sunday. While some teams appear to play to their opponents’ level, having players such as s1mple on your roster allow you to forget about the kind of rigorous game plan that can trip you over, instead relying on the firepower that has seen the superstar finish 12 offline maps this month with an outstanding 1.43 rating and 0.97 KPR, to go along with a +99 K-D differential in 268 rounds. Add to that the promise ofand the outburst of firepower byandversus fnatic, and even stronger teams can be in trouble. The one weak point in Na`Vi is Zeus, whose individual play has come under criticism for more than a year now, and who opponents routinely try to target in their terrorist play – but that alone will not be enough.One way QBF could pull off the impossible is through Na`Vi arguing themselves out of the series. The team has a history of arguing mid-match, and it could be that a rough start, coupled with some seemingly unlucky rounds, could create a few sparks. And yet, on the other side of the stage, it is not clear who could be the difference-maker for QBF in the series. Their player statistics between the qualifier and the major itself are wildly inconsistent, making it tough to recognize who the future stars are likely to be. SixteenZero’s model gives Na`Vi an almost 90% chance to win on five of the seven maps – one of the remaining is Na`Vi’s perma-ban cache, and the other mirage. I would never take a model’s word over the eye test, but in this case it does appear to be in line with the likely reality – Na`Vi should reign supreme.2-0Both teams in the third quarter-final have permanent vetoes, thus making the map veto arguably less dramatic than in the previous two series.do not play train – leaving who knows how much on the table, with’s AWP grounded from the map – whilehas not even tested the waters on nuke with this roster. These rosters have met just twice before, with the Americans taking a 2-0 victory at ELEAGUE Premier in October on cobblestone and inferno, and the Frenchmen, last Saturday, securing a clear 16-8 win on cache.Neither of these teams is particularly good on overpass, and it is a likely candidate for removal in the second round of vetoes. Cloud9 should go for mirage in the series, while G2 likely will think their edge lies on cache, the map they secured the comfortable win on earlier this same event. Both teams like inferno, so it is likely to end up as the deciding map – though I would argue that Cloud9 should in fact prefer cobblestone, because kennyS at peak level can be an immovable object on inferno’s defense – and he has been in great form this month, pushing together plus-1.15 ratings in five of six maps, with an average rating of 1.27 to go with 0.77 KPR and +37 in 151 rounds. Shockingly, with those numbers, he is just the third best player on G2 statistically in the period – with both in-game leaderand newly crowned secondary AWPerplaying even better so far in 2018, statistically.Another thing these teams have in common, which neatly ties with their struggles on the most tactical map in the pool, is that neither has a true in-game leader – instead, with no one else fitting the role any better, shox andhave stepped up the role. The lack of true in-game leader has plagued G2 more, having crashed out in the quarter-finals of ELEAGUE Premier, the group stage of IEM Oakland and fallen second last in the group stage of BLAST Pro Series. Cloud9, on the other hand, have exceeded most fans’ expectations – they aside from ECS Season 4 Finals, where they lost to Astralis and FaZe in a tough group, they have made top-four at every event with this roster. Curiously, over that same stretch, it has been tarik who has been Cloud9’s best player – and the role only becomes more clear looking at a shorter, more recent timespan – despite being the in-game leader.The last time the Cloud9 organization made playoffs at a CS:GO major was at ESL One Cologne 2014, where they came within two rounds of knocking out eventual championsin the quarter-finals – prior to that, the same team’s core had made top-four at DreamHack Winter 2013, playing under the flag of compLexity. Withfinally breaking his devastating record of eight straight group stage exist at the majors, Cloud9 find themselves matched up against a team they may not enjoy playing, but whose style at least gives them a realistic chance in a bar brawl type series, where neither will be too worried about preparation – which the Americans felt harmed them earlier this tournament – and instead will put their focus on simply killing the other team.G2 should be favored on cache to start, with Cloud9 likewise expected to even up the series on their choice, likely to be mirage. The series could well come down to inferno as the third map, but similarly, cobblestone would suit both teams. The home crowd will attempt to give Cloud9 superpowers come Friday, but will it be enough? I do not buy into the argument myself, and it seems equally unlikely that G2 could get nervous in Boston, but New England is a notoriously tough crowd… And still, G2 over Cloud9.2-1SK are playing another major with a stand-in – though this time with one of a much higher caliber and who is significantly better prepared for the temporary stint in the world’s best team, thanwas last-year – and yet they have showed no signs of slowing down, merely dropping a map to reach the quarter-finals. With that said, the Brazilians have not, by any means, had an easy time in Atlanta – all their wins have come down to the last couple of rounds of regulation, though admittedly in the games versus Space Soldiers and mousesports they started off on the terrorist side of mirage, and it took them forever to close out the 13-2 half-time lead versus Gambit on overpass. And yet, SK have a 7-1 record on pistol rounds and have only lose one of the second rounds, so things could have gone worse, too., on the other side, have yet to play a close game. They were blown out by FaZe and Na`Vi, but had one-sided wins over, Astralis and Gambit. One thing is for sure – either team’s pistol round record will take a dive, as fnatic also boast an impressive 8-2 differential there, having also lost just one second round. This match-up has the most silverware among the players – fnatic’s duo ofandhave three majors to’s three, while four SK players were part of the roster that won two majors in a row in 2016. Likewise, seven of these ten players are part of the two best CS:GO rosters of all-time. It is tough to find a more accomplish group in modern – or historic, for that matter – Counter-Strike.It would be tempting to jump on-board the Black and Orange hype machine, with KRIMZ and flusha boasting three month offline ratings in the 1.20-range, despite being murdered twice in series versus FaZe that saw them score just 35 rounds to their opponents’ 64. Especially promising has been the comeback of KRIMZ to great form, and he currently boasts the best rating at the major, adjusting for the fact that his team lost two of the five matches they played. But as much as you would like to shine the spotlight purely on a comeback story, it is an unfortunate truth that the well-oiled Brazilian machine, asreferred to it, has been proven to be near-impossible to stop. Just ask FaZe, who have never won a series against SK. Fnatic’s record has not been much more promising, since the record-setting team of 2014-2016 broke apart.SK will not be gifting fnatic their best maps, Gambit-style. Neither team plays nuke, so unless one is willing to take a gamble – it almost certainly will not be SK, but if fnatic have prepared on it at all, it could be an interesting wrench to throw – the team vetoing second will have to take it out on the second round of vetoes. Unless SK want to minimize risk – fnatic should embrace variance. If fnatic can sell themselves on being ready to pick nuke, they could force inferno on the series – an interesting prospect. However, I am not confident fnatic has it in them, and thus it is more likely the series is decided on cobblestone, train and mirage. The Swedes will not want to see overpass, and SK hope to veto inferno, and preferably nuke. This is backed by SixteenZero’s model, which has fnatic favored on inferno, but underdogs to varying degrees on the other five potential maps.Interestingly, the winner of the fourth quarter-final will need to play the semi-final just hours later on the same day, a cause for concern for at least SK’s, who could be taking on their arch nemesis G2 – a side they struggled with even throughout their best of times, and who knocked this exact roster, in a more-prepared state, out of both DreamHack Masters Malmo and ESL Pro League Season 5 Finals earlier this year. Focus stays on the first game – as TACO was quick to state – but it is worth keeping an eye on. SK could feel the need to already prepare for G2 during their days off too, and it could have some implications on the round of eight battle here. But if anyone knows how to tread those waters, would it not be SK?2-0The playoffs will begin on Friday in Boston with three quarter-finals scheduled for the first day of action. SK Gaming versus fnatic will take place on Saturday morning, followed by the semi-finals. Finally, the grand final for the $500,000 first place price is scheduled for Sunday, January 28.