Australia has just experienced its third-hottest July on record, beaten only by records set in 2017 and 2018, as fire and water authorities in the eastern states prepare for a worse than average fire season.

The year-to-date temperatures from January to July were the second warmest on record, according to a monthly statement from the Bureau of Meteorology. Rainfall recorded during that period is the fifth lowest on record, with the drought worst in New South Wales, southern Queensland, and eastern and central Victoria.

The mean maximum temperature in July was 2.23C above average – the third highest mean maximum temperature for July behind 2017 and 2018.

The warm winter follows Australia’s hottest ever summer.

Global temperatures for July were on track to make it the hottest month ever recorded, following the hottest June ever recorded.

The fire service in New South Wales has announced a historic early start to the declared bushfire danger period in two local government areas along the far south coast, Eurobodalla and the Bega Valley.

Ten more regions in the northeast and mid-north coast – Inverell, Tenterfield, Glen Innes Severn, Armidale, Uralla, Walcha, Nambucca, Kempsey, Port Macquarie Hastings, and the Mid-Coast region – were also declared to be in a bushfire danger period from 1 August.

Bush fire season starts in 12 local government areas across NSW today due to continuing dry conditions. Don't be the fire risk to your community. Check if permits are required for your area at https://t.co/HK6egynjyv #nswrfs pic.twitter.com/YAiUCrZxWQ — NSW RFS (@NSWRFS) July 31, 2019

Rob Rogers, acting commissioner of the NSW rural fire service, said the fire season had been brought forward due to very dry and warm conditions across most of the state. About 98% of NSW is in a declared drought.

“Last season we saw more fires in July and August than the whole of summer combined,” Rogers said in a statement.

Fire authorities in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia are yet to declare the start of their fire danger periods, but both SA and Victoria are expected to do so earlier than normal.

Historically, the fire season ran from November to March in the southern half of the country, and October to March in NSW.

In recent years, the fire season, during which there are restrictions on burn-offs or lighting fires on private land, has been extended in all jurisdictions.

The Murray Darling Basin Authority has also issued a grim outlook for the Murray Darling, warning that it expects to manage the river system for very dry conditions.

Most dams are already very low and the authority does not expect to be able to draw any water from the Menindee Lakes in the coming year, which means the Lower Darling will depend totally on flows from upstream. The storages are now at 32% on average, but in the northern basin, dam levels average just 9%.

Many towns in north-west NSW are already preparing to access alternative water sources, including sinking bores and installing desalination equipment, laying pipelines to bring water from other river systems, and even trucking in water.

Inflows to the Murray Darling in the past 12 months were the eighth lowest in more than 100 years, the MDBA said. While the MDBA plans for all scenarios, it said the Bureau of Meteorology was forecasting very dry conditions for the next three months, when the river system usually receives rain.

“Water in storages is lower than this time last year,” the MDBA. Most of the water is in Dartmouth Dam, on the Murray, to reduce evaporative losses. It is currently at 49%.

One of the key risks is whether spikes in water demand will be able to be delivered though narrow parts of the Murray. There has been significant expansion of plantings of almonds and grapes around Mildura. “There is no indication at this stage that a shortfall will occur in the coming year, however, the risk remains real,” the MDBA says.

“If conditions remain dry and state water use is as planned, there will be low storage levels at the end of this year,” the MDBA warns.