Jan. 27, 2015 will go down in the annals of history as the day New Jersey came to a standstill for a blizzard in another state.

Blizzard warnings have been lifted in the Garden State, projected snow totals more than cut in half and forecasters have apologized for what they're describing as "big forecast miss."

“My deepest apologies to many key decision makers and so many members of the general public,” said Gary Szatkowski, meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, in announcing the forecast change. “You made a lot of tough decisions expecting us to get it right, and we didn't. Once again, I'm sorry.”

In a series of escalating warnings this weekend, the weather service promised feet of snow, not inches. The travel ban that was lifted this morning was issued because driving was expected to be impossible, not tricky. Whiteout conditions were supposed to reduce visibility to near zero, not six miles as it stands this morning in Newark.

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“All along, it has been becoming kind of clear that this is going to be New England’s storm. But people kept insisting,” said David Robinson, the state climatologist at Rutgers University. “The weather service has a bit riding on this, because if this turns into an 8 to 10 inch storm they’ll have some explaining to do. There’s going to be some interesting discussion that occurs.”

For New England, the storm could be historic. But according to the National Weather Service, the storm developed about 90 miles east of previous forecasts and is departing more quickly than predicted. Forecasters said sinking air, or subsidence – a reaction to steeply rising air in heavy snow bands to the east, effectively halted the heaviest precipitation in its westward march to New Jersey last night.

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That small shift can mean the world in a storm like this, where snowfall total gradients are often razor thin. In the Boxing Day Blizzard of December 2010, parts of western New Jersey received just a few inches of snow while places like Elizabeth were digging out from nearly three feet.

But at least in 2010 half the state got buried.

"The science of forecasting storms, while continually improving, still can be subject to error, especially if we're on the edge of the heavy precipitation shield," the weather service's Mount Holly and Upton, NY offices said in a statement this morning. "Efforts, including research, are already underway to more easily communicate that forecast uncertainty."

What could get the most attention in the aftermath of the blown forecast is the correct solution was staring the weather service in the face the entire time. Just as forecasts were issued for 30 inches of snow or more in New Jersey Sunday afternoon, the Global Forecast System, a model built and operated by the National Weather Service, predicted snowfall totals far closer to what is emerging as reality this morning.

The GFS model's snowfall totals (this one from Sunday afternoon) will likely end up far closer to reality.

The GFS model more or less clung to that solution, one that showed a decidedly more eastern track for the storm, throughout the forecast process, but was summarily rejected.

Instead, forecasters at the weather service and beyond opted to base their predictions largely on the typically reliable European model (which famously pegged Hurricane Sandy’s landfall a week in advance). Forecasts issued Sunday afternoon and Monday were very similar to the solution the European model was issuing.

As a result, blizzard warnings were issued unusually early in New Jersey and predictions called for a historic storm that never came. That message was amplified by the media (including NJ Advance Media), and garbled by public officials, who in some cases miscommunicated the timing and expected impacts of the storm.

Forecasters clung to the heady snowfall totals for excruciatingly long Monday night, and into the early hours of Tuesday morning. In updates, the weather service and others said despite the fact that weather prediction models had moved away from their solutions, observations still supported the forecast issued.

"I'm not saying I didn't bust. I'm not saying that at all," said Steven DiMartino, a meteorologist and founder of NY NJ PA Weather, on his Twitter account this morning. I did. Royally. However, I also warned everyone of that very potential ... If you go low and the storm goes the other way, you could get people killed."

Flubbed forecasts are far from unprecedented, but don’t typically lead to the shutdown of an entire region of millions of people. In March 2001, a similar scene unfolded when forecasters predicted upwards of two feet of snow for New York City and parts of New Jersey. The storm tracked farther north than expected, and the Garden State was greeted primarily by light rain instead.

"The forecast has to bust somewhere in a storm like this," Sam DeAlba, a meteorologist at Weather Works, said yesterday as uncertainty grew. "It's almost a guarantee.”

That’s not to say a forecast like this isn’t difficult. It is, in fact, immensely difficult. Forecasters were tasked with predicting the impacts of a storm that didn’t even exist until Monday afternoon, knowing full well that the slightest twinge in the track could completely alter the outcome.

“With a forecast like this, the goal is to keep people safe and get them off the roads,” Robinson said. “It can be tremendously difficult. Any winter storm forecast (in New Jersey) has this difficulty.”

The weather service and others will undoubtedly review what happened during this storm, as is standard practice at the federal agency.

The blizzard of 2015 will go down in the history books, just not in New Jersey. Or at the very least, not for the right reason.

The best photos from the N.J. snowstorm 111 Gallery: The best photos from the N.J. snowstorm

Stephen Stirling may be reached at sstirling@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @sstirling. Find him on Facebook.