That this sort of sight has been more familiar in recent winters than what we're seeing Thursday is odd.

It's fair to say that winter hasn't been itself for a while, going almost two full seasons now.

Last winter was extraordinarily warm and un-snowy. And this winter has also been... underwhelming. As of February 8, this winter is almost 18 inches behind the normal pace for snow (though it should pick up some of that during Thursday's storm). And the January we just finished had an average temperature 8 degrees warmer than normal.

Winter, we're starting to worry about you, old man.

It's felt like winter has been acting strangely for years now. But memory can be a blurry thing, a picture where the unusual events stay sharp and the ordinary fades into the background.

So we thought it'd be interesting to look at more than a century's worth of winters in Albany to get a sense of whether things really have been weird lately.

Look up

This post is mostly some graphs. They're in large format at the top of the page -- click or scroll all the way up.

But, first, you probably want to read this...

What is this?

We decided to look at winters in Albany by two measures that we figured would give some overall sense of what a winter was like and how it felt to people living during that time:

+ Snowfall for the entire winter season (from the NWS Albany website)

+ The average temperature across December, January, and February (via NOAA's website)

Admittedly, those are blunt measures that will smooth over some extreme events. But they're an easy way of comparing across many years.

For each winter we calculated how much that winter's average temperature and snowfall total differed on percentage basis from the current 30-year normals (1981-2010) for each measure -- 26 degrees for temperature (as calculated in the NOAA's output) and 60.3 inches for snowfall. Then we plotted each winter on a graph according to how it compared to those normals.

One more thing about the graphs: They include blue shaded areas for temperature and snowfall. Those represent what you might consider the "usual" range for those measures. (To be more specific, they represent one standard deviation for each measure.) We added those ranges to have a sense of which winters really were unusual and not just a little high or low for some measure.

A few things

2015-2016

There's a reason it seemed weird -- because it really, really was. It's an outlier among outliers for both temperature (very warm) and snow (very little).

Weird winters

As mentioned above, the blue shaded areas indicate what you might consider the typical ranges for average temperature and snowfall for a winter. So winters that fall outside those ranges for a measure could be considered unusual. And winters that fall outside the range both measures could be considered... weird.

Figured that way, there have been 13 "weird" winters in the last 121 years. And three of those have come in the last 15 years -- 2015-2016 (not cold and not snowy), 2011-2012 (not cold and not snowy), and 2002-2013 (cold and snowy).

Weirdest winters?

This whole analysis is squishy, but let's make it even squishier by creating a "weirdness" score for each winter by adding together how much each winter was different from the normal in both temperature and snowfall. By doing that, we can rank the winters by overall weirdness (so very much not a technical term). And when we do that, 2015-2016 ranks as the #2 weirdest weather on record for Albany -- behind only 1970-1971 and it's crazy record-high snowfall total (112.5 inches) and unusually cold temps.

As it happens, the three "weird" winters of the last 15 years all rank in the top 5 all-time in this ranking.

Warming winter

There's a bonus graph above about how the average winter temperature has changed over time in Albany. It's been warming by 0.3 degrees per decade over the last 120some years, according to the NOAA data.

That's not surprising. The average annual temperature in New York State has been on a similar rise over the same period. It's up more than 1 degree Fahrenheit during that time.

Earlier

+ 2016 was hot

+ Adapting for a more extreme future

+ A peek at our possible future climate

+ A future of more extremes

+ An exit interview with winter

+ Dear Winter...