Mike Snider

USA TODAY

Cord cutting is a popular topic — and the genesis of this column — but the reality is that so far there is no full-fledged exodus from pay TV.

However, a lot of subscribers are thinking about the move.

Only 6% of all online adults have cut the cord in favor of Net-delivered video, a Forrester Research report from February found in a survey of more than 4,600. And since nearly all adults are online (91%) that covers most of the subscriber market.

But Forrester did find that the amount of cord cutters rose to 10% when it narrowed results to younger adults ages 18-24. And there's another 14% of the 18-24-year-olds who are thinking seriously about dropping pay TV for Net TV. Among all online adults, 9% are considering cutting the cord.

A similar finding comes from Digitalsmiths, a TV tech company owned by TiVo. Its report, released in March and surveying more than 3,140 adults, found that 10.8% of respondents could potentially leave their current pay TV provider in the next six months. Most said they plan to change providers, while others plan to cut their pay TV service altogether or switch to a third-party app.

Such attitudes and behavior will likely cause overall pay TV homes to decline from 82% in 2013 to 79% in 2018, an overall drop in pay TV homes of 4.7 million, Forrester estimates. The rising number of new households will keep the decline respectable, as the 91.8 million U.S. pay TV households in 2013 will fall to 91.5 million in 2018.

On a similar note, financial firm SNL Kagan says that pay TV providers saw their first full-year decline ever in 2013, with a loss of 251,000 subscribers to about 100 million total.

A decline for sure, but not a Chicken Little scenario for pay-TV providers. "Our data shows that these fears have been overblown and that any reduction in pay-TV subscriptions has been driven more by economic downturn than by new technologies," says Forrester analyst Jim Nail in the report "Marketers: Don't Worry About Cord-Cutting." "For most viewers, the ease of knowing exactly where their favorite programs are, the improved content access, and the annoyance of managing multiple small subscriptions will outweigh what, in the end, will be minimal savings."

Those who are cutting the cord are "a virtual drop in the bucket," agrees Erik Brannon, senior TV analyst at research firm IHS. "Cord cutting isn't happening."

Pay TV providers' rapid embrace of TV Everywhere – the ability to watch paid-for content on computers, tablets and smartphones — helped prevent defections, he says. But Brannon adds that "let's face it, there's a growing number of households that don't connect their set to pay TV," instead opting to use broadband connections to get TV over the Net from Netflix, Hulu, Amazon or other online outlets.

Traditional pay TV providers can offset the trickle of defections with subscribers who pay more, Brannon says. The average spending on video by pay TV subscribers is expected to rise from $71.40 per user in 2012 to $74.06 this year, IHS estimates.

And pay TV providers can continue to court those who've shaved or cut the cord — and those yet to subscribe. One way to do so would be to make it easier for paying customers to better peruse the content they already pay for, according to the survey from Digitalsmiths, which designs video discovery features for pay TV platforms. Nearly half of potential cord cutters would consider staying if their service had improved search functions, its survey found.

Another retention strategy: increase live sports programming and create original content, just as Amazon, Netflix, Yahoo and YouTube have — and Microsoft is planning. "That means as a customer you get something special," says Joel Espelien, senior analyst at The Diffusion Group. "These are all things sounded crazy talk a couple years ago."

Competition for eyeballs and subscribers is resulting in waves of new programming, from cable networks like AMC (The Walking Dead) and pay networks such as HBO (Game of Thrones) and Net TV outlets Amazon (Alpha House) and Netflix (House of Cards). And all that competition is putting more pressure on traditional networks. "We're entering a golden age of television," he says. "There's more original shows being created than ever."

That explosion of choice — in TV delivery and programming — puts the onus on viewers, he says. "If you have chosen to be a Netflix customer, you may not get to see the Amazon shows, and if you've chosen to be an Apple customer, you are not going to get to see the Microsoft shows."

And it's more than that, Espelien says. "You have to be so much more of a sophisticated consumer because these services are part-technology, part-user interface and part-original content."

"Cutting the Cord" is a new regular column covering Net TV and ways to get it. If you have suggestions or questions, contact Mike Snider via e-mail. And follow Mike Snider on Twitter: @MikeSnider.