Such an accomplishment should encourage all countries to agree on much larger reductions of global emissions, sealing a global deal in Copenhagen this December.

Whereas the Protocol requires that the EU-15 reduce average emissions during 2008–2012 to 8 % below 1990 levels, the latest projections indicate that the EU-15 will go further, reaching a total reduction of more than 13 % below the base year.

Commenting on the findings, EEA Executive Director Professor Jacqueline McGlade said:

"It is encouraging that Europe's climate-changing emissions are expected to continue decreasing, outperforming the objectives set by the Kyoto Protocol. Such an accomplishment should encourage all countries to agree on much larger reductions of global emissions, sealing a global deal in Copenhagen this December. Commitments to deep emission cuts are urgently needed to preserve our chances to keep planetary temperature increases below 2ºC."

The EEA report shows that the reductions in the period 2008–2012 will be achieved through a combination of existing and additional policies, the purchase by governments of credits from emission-reducing projects outside the EU, the trading of emission allowances by participants in the EU emission trading scheme (EU ETS) and forestry activities that absorb carbon from the atmosphere. The trading scheme primarily covers large carbon-emitting industries, which represent about 40 % of EU greenhouse gas emissions.

Looking further ahead, almost three quarters of the EU's unilateral target to cut emissions to 20 % below 1990 levels by 2020 could be achieved domestically (i.e. without purchase of credits outside the EU).

The report highlights the importance of the EU ETS in helping Member States meet their targets. It also stresses, however, that governments need to focus on reducing emissions in the sectors not covered by the ETS, such as transport, agriculture and households.

How could the EU achieve the projected reductions?

Existing policies and measures for the period 2008–2012 could account for 6.9 percentage points of the total reduction.

If Member States implement additional measures as planned, the total reduction could reach 8.5 %, although this will largely depend on combined efforts in four main emitting countries (France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom).

The use of Kyoto's flexible mechanisms by governments could contribute an additional 2.2 percentage points reduction.

Absorbing carbon dioxide through enhanced carbon sinks (e.g.improved forest management) will contribute with an additional 1 percentage point reduction.

Purchase of emission allowances and credits by EU ETS operators is expected to deliver a further 1.4 percentage point reduction.

Emission reductions may be furthered by economic recession

The report foresees a variety of factors contributing to the EU-15's total reduction of more than 13 %:

Five EU-15 Member States (France, Germany, Greece, Sweden and the United Kingdom) have already reduced domestic emissions below their targets. Only Austria expects to fall short of its commitment under current conditions and will have to intensify its efforts to reduce emissions in non-ETS sectors.

All other Member States and EEA member countries with emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol anticipate that they will meet their commitments.

Member States' projections have started to take into account the recent economic downturn but the report finds that GHG emissions may still be overestimated in the short term. As such, the recession could bring about further cuts in emissions.

Projected gap between EU-15 GHG emissions and Kyoto units (emission rights) during the Kyoto commitment period 2008–2012 (click for larger image)



Note: EU-15 figure in absolute terms (– 217 Mt CO 2 -eq.) not represented due to significantly higher scale.

Countries are ranked by increasing absolute gap between their 2008–2012 projected emissions in the sectors not covered by the EU ETS and their corresponding Kyoto target.

Source: EEA, 2009

More information

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Notes to the editor