Premier Doug Ford could balance the budget a year earlier than planned if the Progressive Conservatives can limit the growth of program spending and avoid cutting taxes, says Ontario’s fiscal watchdog.

Financial Accountability Officer Peter Weltman said if the Tories can stick to their promised 1.4 per cent average annual increase, they could almost be back in the black in 2021-22.

That’s a full year earlier than the current plan to balance the books.

But Weltman noted that could be a challenge for the Tories, who have already blown through previous estimates, hiking spending $5 billion above the previous Liberal government of former premier Kathleen Wynne due to a string of policy U-turns.

“Importantly, the government’s fiscal plan includes tax cuts and spending programs that have not been publicly disclosed,” he wrote in a 25-page report on the budget outlook released Monday.

“If implemented, these unannounced policies would delay the achievement of a balanced budget and result in an additional $13.5 billion in net debt by 2023-24.”

These include apparent lower personal income tax and corporate tax revenues that were buried in the government’s future estimates.

These were billions of dollars lower than expected.

Another problem for the government is that Weltman estimates that the demand for public services will exceed the planned spending by about $5 billion by 2021-22.

“This presents a risk that the government’s fiscal plan will not provide sufficient resources to meet future ongoing demand for key public services, particularly in the areas of health and education,” he said.

However, if Ford’s administration was able to keep spending hikes at 1.4 per cent, which is below inflation, and not proceed with the “unannounced policies” there would be just a $600 million shortfall heading into the Tories’ 2022 re-election year.

Holding the line at 1.4 per cent annually could leave the government with a $3.7 billion surplus in 2022-23 and an $8.7 billion bonanza in 2023-24.

Finance Minister Rod Phillips, who tabled the government’s fall economic statement last month, emphasized the Tories are “making sure that we balance the budget in a prudent way in 2023.”

“I thank the FAO for his review. It is a very sobering, but very important document that demonstrates the exact challenges that our government has talked about,” said Phillips.

“We support putting money back in people’s pockets. We want to make sure that we balance the budget and we want to make sure that we’re investing in critical services,” he said.

NDP MPP Sandy Shaw (Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas) said the FAO’s report is “a stark warning for this government.”

“The cuts that this government is making will leave a massive $5-billion funding gap between what the government plans to spend and what the people of Ontario actually need,” said Shaw.

“In order to close that gap, the FAO suggests more painful cuts are coming,” she said.

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“A year and a half of this Conservative government ... and the situation has only gone from bad to worse. Our education system is in chaos, and too many people continue to be treated in the hallways of hospitals.”

Liberal MPP Mitzie Hunter (Scarborough-Guildwood), predicted the Tories “will continue this agenda of cuts and scrimp for savings off the backs of students, seniors, and hospital patients.”

Hunter said such “planned cuts are unsustainable” and “demonstrate a cruel indifference to the well-being of Ontarians.”

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