A simulation based analysis of outcomes by seed at Club Nationals

2016 Women’s Championship Bracket — USA Ultimate Club Nationals

If you’re anything like me and running a club team, the announcement of Nationals seedings is a big day. The mind immediately starts racing through various paths to make quarters, semis, or finals. A good team leader avoids this mind wandering and focuses on just getting the most out of his or her team. The temptation is just too great for most though.

So one question I wanted to explore with the new Club Nationals format, are there seeds at Nationals that boost or decrease a team’s chances of advancing in the bracket?

Below I take a simulation based approach to determining a team’s probability of reaching different stages of the bracket based on their seed. Overall, the Club Nationals format is pretty fair to various seeds. The only outlier I would argue is that it appears to be better to be seeded 9th as opposed to be seeded 8th.