Putin is centrally driven by his determination to restore Russia as a power to be taken seriously. He deeply mistrusts the West. But he is not a risk taker. His pride in Russia was apparent every time I saw him, from lavish Kremlin receptions to celebrate Russia’s artistic elite to his cold response at a Downing Street meeting to hearing that a gas project was going to cost Russia billions more than anticipated – eventually followed by Russian expropriation of the company concerned. His caution has been much questioned since the annexation of Crimea last year – which took virtually all observers (including me) by surprise. But the Putin I knew was a man who judged situations very carefully, was very conscious of Russia’s relative weakness vis-à-vis the West, and only took action if he was confident he had a decisive advantage, or felt himself unbearably provoked – as in Georgia in 2008. There is simply no evidence for the Western hysteria about a revanchist Russia. The Putin I know is not going to take on Nato.