@electrolite77

"Hi, in 2018, this is nonsense. Portable gaming is dead. Long live portable gaming. Nintendo consolidated the two into a single unit."

You don't understand the significance of this statement based on your response.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_king_is_dead,_long_live_the_king!

Portables as we know it are dead. The switch has redefined what a portable is. You need to look at the past 10 years through something more than a straw to understand this fact and why the switch actually rings the bell of an end of an age of how portables are done.

Which maybe why there is some confusion about "It needs PS4 games" and "It doesn't need PS4 games". This requires a bit more understanding of the last 2 years. Again you're looking at the statements through a straw, linearity and the progression of time and how things change over the course of time seems to be lost on you at this point. Re-examine: So look at what brings the switches popularity at launch. Playing games on a TV and on the Go. There is no line between these factors. It's a great gimmick executed correctly unlike the Vita. So playing something like DOOM a PS4 game or Wolfenstien another PS4 game is part of the systems appeal. There are a lot of games releasing in this way, especially indie titles.

So what's the problem, right! Switch should be able to cruise along just fine because of this. That is a correct assumption. However not the topic of conversation, which is whether or not switch will dominate or will its hardware sales start to slow. That's the problem. Part of your audience is big on Indie games coming tot he switch along with big AAA titles. Which in the last 2 years we've seen a lot of ports of 1st generation PS4 games and some remasters from last gen. While this is good, you eventually run out of games that are justifiably portable. So what happens then, you lose part of the appeal right. Suddenly you have all these games, but Bethesda throws their hands in the air and stops bringing their latest and more recent titles to the platform. They too have to remain competitive agianst other 3rd parties. Switch doesn't do that. So that leaves them with another option. Spinoff titles such as EA's Dead Space Extraction or unique versions of those titles such as those seen with The Force Unleashed on Wii or older games that were ported to GBA and DS way back when which were just reduced down titles. We saw some of that as PS3 and X360 fell from relevance. Destiny had features removed, left out, or was not brought up to date with the latest DLC (Rise of Iron I believe didn't get a 360 PS3 release). CoD got a watered down version. Assassin's Creed Rogue was released. This didn't resonate well with gamers, which is why that trend did not last very long. It provides a satisfying proof of concept that this is not acceptable. Nor should it be.

You see you can't look at all gamers as equal in their preferences. Some prefer RPG's, Some prefer shooters, RTS, platformers, and other genres. Some have favorite studios (like myself I love sony first party, Square Enix/Eidos, and Capcom). Those favorites don't always overlap with say someone who loves Nintendo First party and dreams of the next big Nintendo release. That also includes things Nintendo can't provide either due to lack understanding a specific style or not being able to provide it. Themes and aesthetics are just as important as the game play itself. It's important ot have as many gritty dark themed games as you do happy brightly colored titles. I enjoy both, but I'd find myself playing more Killzone, Tomb Raider, or Uncharted than say that Yoshi Yarn game, Mario Odyssey. I'd rather play Overwatch instead of Splatoon, I just enjoy the themes, the stories, the character designs, and the game play more. That's where the divide comes in. If games on PS4 start existing outside the realm of what is feasible on switch, then I have less reason to play on Switch. Which means those still on the fence who might say to themselves "Damn if only Destiny were on Switch, I would by one" will never do so. That's what makes next year so interesting, Metroid Prime is awesomeness, but how many Nintendo fans already own a switch? I'd imagine we're getting close to getting to the max owners of the system and we'll likely reach that entire userbase after Smash releases next week.

So this is where your confusion seems to come in. Switch will continue to get games from Nintendo. Some indies will ride out the next couple of years just like Vita until the next shiny thing comes along to distract them. However 3rd parties will dry up. The 3rd, 4th, and 5th gen PS4 games won't run on switch as those games will be running at a breaking point. I imagine we'll start to see a greater frequency of games running at 720p this year on PS4 which spells an issue for Launch Xb1 and more importantly Switch. That takes us to a space that is all to familiar to anyone who owned a GameCube or a Wii. Trust me it's not kind. You'll see some great releases from Nintendo and for Nintendo fans. However those looking for the next big AAA experience, they'll look else where. When it comes to 3rd party franchises like Assassin's Creed, maybe Mass Effect, perhaps Diablo 4, the next fallout, the next elder scrolls. Well they won't be found. You and I will still be here with our switches waiting for the next Zelda or Metroid etc. The gaming world will move on from Nintendo. People will be hopping on next gen. Nintendo will be forced to do one of two things. Launch a new switch with more power or ride out the generation with the switch replacing the 3DS fulltime.

You can say that Console gaming on the go is only a part of it, but lets be honest, thats it. We can't say its the games, because everything Nintendo has released up to this point has been Wii U titles with the exception of 3 to 4 titles. I have a suspicion about a few of them being Wii U titles converted like Breath of the Wild. Anyone who keeps a careful eye on gaming will tell you that a consoles success is built on its games. While Nintendo games can justify a purchase much like it did for the GameCube way back in the 2000's it wasn't enough to keep the console out in front and in the minds of the average gamer (not the first party fans). It's the reason the Wii for all of its success fell into obscurity last generation. No one cared. It's the reason the Wii U didn't sell like a beast. The Wii had literally nothing releasing on it in its final days. Nintendo had to pull two games out of mothballs in Europe and Japan just to release something for it. It's why the joke of the wii being senior citizens favorite dust collector is uttered today.

Now again being fair, I don't see the Switch collecting dust for the remainder of its life. I see the system hitting 60 million and then taking it easy as it tries to reach 80 million. Being the only handheld at present its very realistic to expect the 3DS to be outsold by the switch at some point. It's a better machine with better features. However we have no idea what Sony, Microsoft, or even Google at present have planned for the portable market. As I've speculated before, a PS4 Go could become a thing. With PS4 titles from the PS Store being its main source of games (as all of them are on there) and it being basically a PS4. With the promise of "Enhanced for PS5" also being a possibility that could cause some gamers to consider this hypothetical machine which docks to let them continue or cross save their game to a PS5 for 4K magic and Real Time Reflections etc. These are all things that could slow down the Switch even further in the future. However this is all way off topic.

My points are to outline the Switches falling out of hype mode as people start to realize the limits of the machine and that it's awesome hardware has its limits. That maybe those mobile chipsets aren't as caught up as these chuckle head reporters think. As I've re-iterated countless times. This is not a doom and gloom response. I'm not saying the switch will vanish from the face of the planet and Nintendo will be back in panic mode that their pride and joy isn't selling. They'll still make money, they'll still sell hardware, they'll still make games, and still have a fan base. I just feel that the hardware has now aged significantly like its competitions. It's going to start feeling that way and one of its selling points which is in part fueling its adoption rate will cease to be. It's other selling points like being the only place for Nintendo will still be there. It's selling point of still being a place to pick up the currently announced indie titles will still be viable so long as the indies don't flee the ship like they did the Vita, PS3, and Xbox One as soon as the new hotness came along.

I like my switch, but even I don't buy every indie game that comes along for it. I'm getting Bloodstained Ritual of the Night on PS4, for trophies and that sweet sweet 4K HDR. Ya I'll probably get the switch version for much the same reason as I have some games on Vita, yet again (that don't have cross play, buy, trophies, or save). It'll be purely case by case. Ya sure I'll get FF7, X|X-2, XII, etc for the Switch, but I'm an FF fan. They could put FF on my phone and I would... oh wait already have done that... that settles that. lol

Anyway I'm a little tired of this topic and I'm starting to run in circles with a lot of these responses. I just say this. Take my predictions as they are, a careful analysis as to why this analyst might be wrong. I could be wrong too. However I think this guy is throwing a hail marry as everything else I'm seeing over the past 40 years would seem to indicate this guy is completely off his nut. Fiscal year will end in march, which means next year, you won't have Pokemon and Smash to lean on. There is a lot happening next year that will influence consumer decisions on what to buy. A PS4 being 200 dollars with a game is very appealing, especially if that collection sees benefits on PS5, could work in a PS4 Go, and PS4 titles from 3rd parties just don't end up on switch. Let's just leave it at that.