Finding No. 5781 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of August 30/31 & September 6/7, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,089 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.0% did not name a party.

In early September ALP support fell to 54% (down 1.5%) still well ahead of the L-NP 46%, (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis following the repeal of the Mining Tax. If an election had been held the ALP would have won easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,089 Australian electors aged 18+ over the last two weekends.

Primary support for the ALP fell to 37% (down 1.5% over the past fortnight) whilst L-NP primary support was up 0.5% to 38%. Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 10.5% (unchanged), the Palmer United Party (PUP) 4.5% (unchanged) while Independents/ Others rose 1% to 10%.

Support for PUP is highest in Clive Palmer’s home State of Queensland (7.5%). Support for PUP is lower in the rest of Australia: Western Australia (5%), South Australia (5%), Victoria (4.5%), Tasmania (3%) and New South Wales (3%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows ALP support well ahead amongst women: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% on a two-party preferred basis. However, men also support the ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds favour the ALP (61%) cf. L-NP (39%); 25-34yr olds favour the ALP (61%) cf. L-NP (39%); 35-49yr olds favour the ALP (56.5%) cf. L-NP (43.5%); 50-64yr olds favour the ALP (52%) cf. L-NP (48%); only those aged 65+ still clearly favour the L-NP (55%) cf. ALP (45%).

Analysis by States

The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. New South Wales: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%, Victoria: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%, Queensland: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%, Western Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%, South Australia: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5% and Tasmania: ALP 63.5% cf. L-NP 36.5%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 95pts this week (up 1pt over the past fortnight). Now 43% (down 1%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and 38% (unchanged) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, as used by News Corp’s poll*, show the ALP (53%) cf. L-NP (47 %) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan says:

“The L-NP (46%, up 1.5% over the past fortnight) has closed the gap on the ALP (54%, down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after the Abbott Government successfully repealed the Mining Tax last week after striking a deal with the Palmer United Party in the Senate. “Exactly one year since Tony Abbott led the Liberal-National Coalition back into power with victory at last year’s Federal Election the Abbott Government can now claim to have achieved three of the major policy objectives taken to last year’s Federal Election – the repeal of the Carbon & Mining Taxes and significantly reducing the flow of asylum seekers coming to Australia – the so-called ‘Stopping the Boats’ policy. “However, despite these successes the Abbott Government still faces many challenges if it is to stand a real chance of re-election in two years’ time:

The Federal Budget and finding a way to pass the more contentious pieces of Budget legislation with a hostile Senate.



The Clive Palmer factor – Palmer’s unpredictability has been evident again in recent weeks after Palmer changed course and cut a deal on repealing the Mining Tax by forcing the Abbott Government to delay the increase in the compulsory superannuation rate (from 9.5% to 12%) until 2025 instead of 2019.



The continuing international unrest particularly in Iraq, Syria & Ukraine and the possibility Prime Minister Tony Abbott may need to send troops to the Middle East.



Against this turbulent backdrop the key area Prime Minister Tony Abbott can show leadership and make a real difference to the political turbulence in Australia is fixing Australia’s high level of unemployment and under-employment (2.14 million in August according to the latest Roy Morgan employment estimates).”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?” Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5781 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of August 30/31 & September 6/7, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,089 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.0% did not name a party.

For further information:

Contact Office Mobile Gary Morgan: +61 3 9224 5213 +61 411 129 094 Michele Levine: +61 3 9224 5215 +61 411 129 093

Data Tables

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.