10:46

Q: Why has nearly 10 years of power sharing between the old foes of Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionist party been imperilled?

The irony about of this crisis is not that it centres not on traditional issues of dispute such as the constitutional status of Northern Ireland or even how the power-sharing government deals with the legacy of the Troubles and nearly 4,000 deaths. It has come crashing down due to a ‘cash for ash’ scandal.

Q: What is ‘cash for ash’?

In 2012 the DUP devised a green energy scheme called the Renewable Heating Initiative which was mean to encourage non-domestic consumers to use green energy such as wood pellets to heat farms, businesses and other enterprises.



Q: Why was it such a disaster?



The scheme offered £1.60 for every £1 spent by farmers and other non-domestic users if they signed up for the green initiative. It soon became apparent that there had been a massive miscalculation of the cost of the scheme, which some estimates now reckon will cost the taxpayer close to £500m in lost revenue.

Q: Why did it cause such a political furore?

Opposition parties ranging from the Ulster Unionists to Sinn Féin’s nationalist rivals in the SDLP called for an independent inquiry into the fiasco and for first minister Arlene Foster to stand down temporarily while it was held. Sinn Féin, the DUP’s sole partner in coalition government, came under intense pressure to act.

Q: Will an election clear the air?



If past results are replicated the DUP and Sinn Fein will still end up as the two largest parties but the game-changer would be if the republican party was larger than its unionist rival. In that case a Sinn Féin assembly member could be elected for the first time as first minister as the DUP may ship votes and lose seats to their Ulster Unionist competitors.

Q: Will an election naturally lead to a new power-sharing/cross-community government

Not necessarily, given the bitterness that now exists between Sinn Féin and the DUP. It may take a long series of post-election negotiations to rebuild trust and recast a new coalition government, which inevitably will involve the two largest parties.



Q: Will a collapse of power-sharing and a fresh election destabilise the peace in Northern Ireland?



While dissident republicans will rejoice, hoping to inflict some damage at the ballot box to Sinn Féin and claiming the dysfunctional relationship between Sinn Féin and the DUP proves Northern Ireland is a failed state, this crisis will not fatally undermine the peace process. The overwhelming majority of people on all sides in Northern Ireland support the peace settlement and do not want a resumption of Troubles-style 24/7 violence.