Mayor Rob Ford is now using his pulpit to push for a downtown casino. International companies and local unions are both lobbying furiously. Anti-casino activists are plotting the next steps in their own pressure campaign.

And it’s likely that none of this matters any more.

Neither the Yes side nor the No will say so, but it has become clear to city hall vote-counters that the proposal for a massive casino-resort near the downtown waterfront is probably dead on arrival.

Twenty-three votes are needed to win at the 45-member council. With at least a month before decision day, 21 councillors have now declared that they will definitely vote No on a casino downtown. Two other councillors say they are leaning to the No side — one of them, Ana Bailao, strongly.

Even if two of those 23 councillors change their minds, the No side is still probably safe, barring some major unexpected development. Some 15 other councillors are publicly undecided, including two, Glenn De Baeremaeker and Anthony Perruzza, who almost always vote with the left. The casino would still go down to defeat if the undecideds broke 13-2 in its favour, which is highly unlikely.

Put another way: even if Ainslie and Bailao end up voting for a casino, the Yes side could only win the vote by winning the 15 undecideds by a shocking 14-1 margin.

Ford cannot even count on his usual allies to rally to the cause: seven members of his 13-member executive committee are among the undecideds. They include Ford’s deputy mayor, Doug Holyday, who has said that he is not generally a supporter of casinos and is “reluctant” to put one downtown.

Another member of Ford’s executive, conservative Denzil Minnan-Wong, announced Tuesday that he is firmly in the No camp. And yet another member, Paul Ainslie, said on Twitter that he is “more anti than pro casino” — after tweeting a stream of anti-casino messages and articles, most recently “Nun steals $$ from Catholic Church, goes to casino.”“Nun steals $$ from Catholic Church, goes to casino.”

Only seven members of council, by contrast, are firmly in favour of a downtown casino, including the mayor and Councillor Doug Ford. And many of the undecideds say they would only support the casino if the city gets an annual hosting fee of $100 million or more; the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp. had floated an estimate of only $50 million to $100 million even before Premier Kathleen Wynne decreed that Toronto must not get a special deal.

The eclectic No group now includes almost all of council’s left-leaning bloc; right-leaning Karen Stintz and John Parker; regular swing voters Josh Matlow, James Pasternak and Chin Lee; and Raymond Cho, a left-leaning councillor who is also a Progressive Conservative provincial candidate.

Maria Augimeri, a formerly undecided progressive who had faced pressure from pro-casino unions, said Monday that she will vote No. She also said that many more councillors privately oppose a casino than have expressed their opposition in public to date.

“I believe that the No side, for a casino in downtown Toronto, is around the 30 mark — 30 votes No,” she said.

In public, at least, other council casino opponents have tempered their optimism. Adam Vaughan said he expects deep-pocketed casino companies to redouble their lobbying efforts in the lead-up to the vote, which could come as soon as early May. He called the situation “fluid.”

“I’m reticent to count my chickens before they’re hatched. But I’d rather be working on the farm I’m working on than the farm they’re working on,” Vaughan said.

Ford, whose term has been marred by significant council defeats, has expressed confidence that he will win this vote. But he may not even be able to convince his executive to unconditionally endorse a downtown casino in its preliminary vote early next week.

Holyday will be away at a personal engagement he said he cannot miss, and Peter Milczyn, Jaye Robinson, Gary Crawford, David Shiner and Michael Thompson have all said they need to know the hosting fee before deciding how to vote. It is unlikely that figure will be available in time.

Casino proponents say the battle can still be won despite the wide current margin between the No and Yes sides. Paul Burns, vice-president of the Canadian Gaming Association, an industry lobby group, predicted that the final vote at council will be “close.”

“As you said, there’s some 15 undecided. Fifteen plus nine is — 24,” Burns said with a chuckle. “We don’t know all of the pieces of the puzzle. And there’s debate, and discussion, and deputations from the public. We’ll see where they land. But the vote’s not today. So we’ve got some time.”

Rolling the dice

The NO voters

Maria Augimeri

Shelley Carroll

Raymond Cho

Janet Davis

Sarah Doucette

John Filion

Paula Fletcher

Mary Fragedakis

Mike Layton

Chin Lee

Josh Matlow

Denzil Minnan-Wong

Pam McConnell

Mary-Margaret McMahon

Joe Mihevc

John Parker

James Pasternak

Gord Perks

Karen Stintz

Adam Vaughan

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Kristyn Wong-Tam

Publicly leaning No:

Paul Ainslie

Ana Bailao

Publicly undecided:

Glenn De Baeremaeker

Michelle Berardinetti

Gary Crawford

Josh Colle

Mike Del Grande

Mark Grimes (could not be reached)

Doug Holyday

Gloria Lindsay Luby

Peter Milczyn

Ron Moeser

Cesar Palacio (to announce position this week)

Anthony Perruzza

Jaye Robinson

Michael Thompson

David Shiner

The Yes voters:

Vincent Crisanti

Frank Di Giorgio

Rob Ford

Doug Ford

Norm Kelly

Giorgio Mammoliti

Frances Nunziata

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