There appears to be a general trend for higher estimate works returning lower ROI. Had I followed my own strategy closer and laid off the £3m Mark Rotjahn lot (13% ROI), I would likely have won the contest.

Strategy #2 - Like Shopping for a Car

I found it helpful to break down the artists' works into segments for appraisal. Similar to car companies, artists have top, middle, and lower level segments. So when I looked at an auction lot, I would first ask, "Is this a Lexus, a Camry, or a Yaris for this artist?" I would then look for comparison works (comps) within that same segment based on visual similarity, year of execution, materials, and dimensions. Based on the past selling price for the comps, I could then establish my own estimates. If my estimate for a lot was in Lexus territory, but the low estimate from the auction house was for a Yaris, then I knew I had a winner. This strategy helped me select four of the six lots with the highest ROI in the contest. Below I show the comps I used, any key pre-auction insights, and a graph of the average price per work over time.

Frank Auerbach - Head of Gerda Boehm

Rank #6: - Hammer Price: £820,000 (£320,000 return on £500,000 invested for 64% ROI)



The Good: I couldn't have asked for better comps for the Auerbach lot. The comps had the same title and the same model in roughly the same pose. One of the comps previously owned by David Bowie sold late last year for £3.3m setting a new record for Auerbach. Not only were the comps extremely similar, but they had both achieved insanely high ROI at 983% and 640%.

The Bad: The materials for the work on the block were oil on paper on board and the version that sold last year was just oil on board. I was a little concerned that the paper may devalue the lot in the contest until I found the second comp, a charcoal on paper of the same subject which sold for over £2m. I really thought this lot could end up having the best ROI in the contest based on the comps.