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Doubts about the future of NAFTA may also help explain the poor performance of Canadian share prices. The Toronto Stock Exchange index, which stood near 15,700 on Monday, was up a mere 1.3 per cent from a year ago. The Dow Jones industrial average of U.S. blue-chip stocks, by contrast, rose more than 20 per cent over the past 12 months to reach above 25,500 on Monday. The cloud over NAFTA makes a difference to U.S. industry, but it makes a whole lot more difference to Canada.

The Justin Trudeau government, like the Stephen Harper government before it, has been pursuing trade deals elsewhere in the hope of limiting the damage in case we lose access to the U.S. market. As a result, we have a trade deal with the European Union and the outline of a deal tying Canada to Japan, Australia, Chile and seven other Pacific Rim countries.

In a war of nerves, such as the NAFTA negotiation, a breakthrough could come at any time. Canada, however, has no incentive to accept drastic changes the U.S. has been asking for on automobile trade, government procurement and future renewals of the treaty. Mr. Trump, who loves to fulminate against NAFTA, might be able to persuade his ruling Republican Party to unscramble his country’s close trade ties with Canada and Mexico, but it would be at best a quixotic quest and hard to sell politically.

The most likely prospect at the moment is that the current round of talks ends without an agreement, Mexico turns to its presidential election and then the U.S. turns to its November mid-term congressional elections. NAFTA talks might then resume after Mexico’s new president takes office in December.