This page will be updated in the next few days, after a One-month hiatus.

Until Then, Follow the Link Above for Updates.

COVID-19 Doubling-Time Model and Projections

BY DAN REICHART, NICK KONZ, AND ADAM TROTTER

Updated 5/4/20209

The point of this page is to model the COVID-19 doubling time. This is the time that it takes for twice as many people to become infected with the virus. In early March, the doubling time was approximately 2 days in the United States. At this doubling rate, it would have taken only 40 days for nearly everyone in the United States to become infected.

As such, we began to take measures to increase the doubling time. The most effective way to do this is through widespread testing, which allows cases to be identified, identified early, and isolated. Unfortunately, widespread testing of the symptomatic was slow-coming in the United States, not beginning in earnest until mid-March. And widespread testing of the asymptomatic (see below) hasn’t begun yet.

Without both of these, we have instead had to rely on significant lifestyle changes: social distancing, frequent hand washing, mask wearing, etc. However, these lifestyle changes must be adopted by nearly everyone, and adhered to vigilantly, to be effective.

We can see if these efforts are working in the United States, and how well they are working, by monitoring the doubling time.