S&P Global Market Intelligence ($):

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that coal producers will export slightly more in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2019 than in the first quarter, but total traffic out of the U.S. will still fall 15.3% in 2019 compared to 2018.

The EIA forecast that coal exports will total 97.9 million tons this year, down from 115.6 million in 2018, according to its latest “Short-Term Energy Outlook.” Seaborne shipments are expected to fall another 4.7% in 2020 to 93.3 million tons, though metallurgical exports are projected to remain stable at 51.3 million tons in 2019 and 2020, following a 16.6% drop from 2018 to 2019. Thermal exports are projected to fall 13.9% year over year to 46.6 million tons in 2019 and then by another 9.7% in 2020 to 42.1 million tons.

Overall coal production is projected to decline 7.4% to 699.8 million tons this year and by another 8.8% to 638.1 million tons in 2020. In 2019, the administration expects to see the largest decline in output from western producers, which are anticipated to produce 382.2 million tons this year, an 8.6% drop from 2018.

The administration expects coal’s share of power generation to decline from 27% in 2018 to an average of 24% in 2019 and 22% in 2020. Nuclear’s share of generation is expected to remain at or around 19% in 2019 and 2020. Hydropower generation is slated to account for about 7% of total generation in 2019 and 2020, about on par with 2018 levels. Other renewable generation, including wind and solar, is projected to see an uptick from 10% of electricity generation to 11% in 2019 and 13% in 2020. Wind is slated to pass hydropower for the first time to become the leading source of renewable resource generation in 2019 and 2020.

“EIA expects emissions to fall in 2019 and in 2020 as forecast temperatures return to near normal after a warm summer and cold winter in 2018 and because the forecast share of electricity generated from natural gas and renewables increases while the forecast share generated from coal, which produces more CO2 emissions, decreases,” the EIA said in the report.

More ($): EIA projects 15.3% drop in coal exports this year despite quarterly rise