Ultimately, no matter how much weather watching is being done, Lake Michigan is treacherous and tricky. Waves have less room to build than on the ocean so the chop period is shorter and fresh water is less buoyant as well—subtle variables that make a huge difference when piloting a boat. CNN founder Ted Turner did the Race to Mackinac but before he sailed, he termed Lake Michigan as “a mill pond.” That was in 1970, the year winds got up to 60 miles per hour and of the 167 starters, 88 withdrew. Turner, who made it to the island, also withdrew his description of Lake Michigan as well.

Those weren’t the strongest winds ever. During the 1911 race winds were clocked at 82 mph.

“I sailed the race in 2011 and it was the worst weather,” says Gallagher. “Then last year it was dead calm. The conditions during the race can vary hour by hour.”