Conservatives Lead, But the Gap Is Narrowing

The Greens hit double digits



Toronto, June 11th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1633 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, a third (34%) say they would support the Conservatives if an election were held today.

3 in 10 (30%) say they would support the Liberals, and about one-sixth say they would support the NDP (13%) or Greens (13%).

About 1 in 20 (6%) say they would support the BQ, while a similar proportion would support the PPC (4%). Few (1%) are supporting another party.

While support for most of the parties is stable, the Greens have increased their support by four points since April (April 9th: 9%).

If these results were projected into seats, we expect a Conservative minority government of 151 seats, with the Liberals securing 134.



The NDP would win 27, the BQ would win 23, and the Greens would win 3.

Trudeau sees approval from a third, disapproval from more than half

Justin Trudeau sees approval from a third (34%) and disapproval from more than half (56%), with about 1 in 10 (10%) saying they don’t know. His net favourable score is -22 (approve-disapprove).

Scheer sees disapproval from almost half

A third (33%) say they approve of Andrew Scheer, while almost half (45%) say they disapprove. One-fifth (22%) say they don’t know. Scheer’s net favourable score is -12 (approve-disapprove).

Singh’s disapproval is equal to “don’t know”



A quarter (23%) say they approve of Jagmeet Singh, while about 4 in 10 (40%) say they disapprove. 4 in 10 (37%) also say that they don’t know. His net favourable score is -17 (approve-disapprove).

May’s approval the highest

Just over 4 in 10 (44%) say they approve of Elizabeth May, while a quarter (22%) say they disapprove. A third (33%) say they do not know. Her net favourable score is +22, the only score in the positives (approve-disapprove).

“Support for the Federal parties is mostly unchanged, but the landscape has shifted considerably,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “A few percentage points have made a big difference in the projection of the future government. The highlight of this report is the strength of the Federal Green party; with a provincial Green Party propping up an NDP government in BC, and other provincial Greens making significant gains in Atlantic Canada, the Federal Greens could have a real influence on the 2019 election, if their support continues to rise.”