If the mishap was the result of pilot error, it would have required a significant number of protocol failures. Launching an AIM-120 is a multi-step process that begins with having the aircraft’s master arm function turned on. The pilot would then have to at least select the missile from the available armament options and then trigger the launch.

The Baltic Air Policing mission is just that, an aerial police service meant to help the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania patrol their airspace against intrusions. But even if in times of war, the master arm function remains off until the pilot is ready to engage an enemy target. Even securing approval or independently firing on a hostile aircraft can involve carefully laid out procedures that are in accordance with strict rules of engagement.

Whatever the case turns out to be, it’s definitely embarrassing for Spain, which is among the NATO members that spend the least on defense. It’s also not a great look for the Alliance as a whole, which has been under increasing pressure, especially from the United States, to reinvigorate its military capabilities after years of increasing neglect in many cases since the end of the Cold War.

We will be keeping an eye out for any new details about this accidental missile launch and will update this story if we learn anything new. In the meantime, if you’re in Estonia and happen to see a long, smoldering tubular object lying on the ground, you can call the authorities at +372 717 1900 or dial 112 for the country’s national emergency line.

Contact the author: jtrevithickpr@gmail.com