The discussion paper that was meant to kick off the process was expected in December. At the time, The Financial Review outlined its contents and the number of pages – about 200. But Abbott sat on it because he was in political trouble, promising to release it early in the new year. January, February and then most of March passed without any sign of it. Now Hockey says he'll release it on Monday, just after the New South Wales election and three months late.

After the discussion paper was to come months of consultation and submissions ahead of a final paper at the end of this year. Unless Hockey extends the deadline, the process will have been severely truncated. If he does extend it, the white paper will be released so close to the next election as to make a bold second package impossible.

In any event, the Prime Minister has signalled there will be nothing bold about this year's budget (and by extension next year's budget, which will be just before the election). It will be "almost dull compared to last year". It is "not going to involve anything like the kind of restructuring that we saw last year".

In Labor's last financial year in office, spending exceeded revenue by 5.4 per cent. This year it will exceed it by 13 per cent. The government says it has a plan to get the excess down, but that plan was struck when the iron ore price was $US90 a tonne. It's now closer to $US50. And it was struck when the government thought it could get most of its measures through the Senate. It now knows it can't. Many measures it won't even put up.

So without the ability or the will to genuinely reform the budget this time round, what's it going to do? It is going to put lipstick on it. It's going to dress it up with measures that look good, even if they do harm.