Welcome to For the Win’s ranking of all 32 NFL starting quarterbacks for the 2018 season. These rankings are based entirely on film study, with each passer being graded on six attributes: Accuracy, arm strength, creativity, decision making, pocket presence and pre-snap ability. For a more thorough explanation of the grading scroll to the bottom of the post or click here to jump down.

How did we end up back here, Buffalo? Nathan Peterman will open the season as the Bills starter after what can only be described as a train wreck of a rookie season. It wasn’t Peterman’s fault. He had no business being thrust into the starting lineup during his rookie season. The result was a disaster, with Peterman being picked off by the Chargers five times in one half. As we saw in that brutal game in Los Angeles, he has trouble reading a defense and is a beat too slow when making decisions. He has just enough arm strength to make it as an NFL backup, but that’s his ceiling — which he’s not even close to reaching.

Sam Darnold is going to turn the ball over a lot in 2018. But that’s OK. The 21-year-old rookie needs to learn what he can and cannot get away with at the pro level. One thing he can’t do: Hold the ball as long as he did at USC. Darnold is comfortable navigating the pocket, but that boldness can lead to unnecessary sacks and, when he doesn’t keep two hands on the ball, fumbles. He had a lot of those in college. He’s a confident player who can try too hard to make a play, so expect to see some rather ugly picks. But there will also be times when Darnold makes plays that only a handful of guys in the league can make. Those moments will give Jets fan hope for the future.

You probably weren’t expecting to see a quarterback who was a quarter away from the Super Bowl so soon, but it’s difficult to justify putting Blake Bortles any higher on this list when he’s still making rookie mistakes with the football, still hasn’t gotten his mechanics to a point where we can even call them mediocre and has yet to take full control of the offense. It’s Year 5. The Jaguars need their franchise quarterback (stop laughing) to start playing like one. If he doesn’t, this team’s Super Bowl window may already be closed after the franchise committed to him in the offseason. What a shame that would be.

I guess $18 million doesn’t get you what it used to. That’s how much the Broncos are paying Case Keenum, on average, over the next two seasons. What are they getting in return? A quarterback who can make a play or two outside of the pocket but struggles to see the field inside of it. He’s got a weak arm, but that doesn’t deter him from trying to fit the ball into tight windows. Without the aid of Stefon Diggs and Adam Theilen, who bailed him out so many times last year in Minnesoate, expect Keenum’s turnover numbers to soar.

It’s looking like Joe Flacco’s days as a starter in Baltimore are rapidly winding down. Baltimore’s brain trust finally got tired of paying a quarterback who now struggles to throw even a five-yard out route accurately. Long gone are the days of Flacco being one of the league’s best deep-ball passers, too. He can still get plenty of zip on the ball and launch it downfield to streaking receivers, just don’t expect any accuracy. And despite this being his 11th season in the league, Flacco still doesn’t do as much in the pre-snap phase as you’d expect from a quarterback with his experience.

Tyrod Taylor was under-appreciated in Buffalo — just look at the Bills’ quarterback situation now — but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a lower-tier starter in this league. While he can make plays outside the offensive system, he struggles to produce within structure, which leads to inconsistent results. Taylor isn’t particularly accurate and is too anxious to get outside of the pocket when his first read doesn’t break open — though he has improved in that regard over the last season or two. Even with all his warts, he’s the best quarterback Cleveland’s had since the team’s reincarnation in 1999.

There is a lot to like about Patrick Mahomes’ game. He’s got the biggest arm of anyone on this list, and he’s already proven to be a crafty passer. How many guys are throwing no-look passes downfield at this level? Mahomes is one of them. But some of the problems that spoiled his college tape have shown up early in his pro career. His accuracy remains scattershot and he’ll throw some of the worst interceptions you’ll see. But those are the kind of mistakes you expect from a 22-year-old gunslinger. Once Andy Reid gets through to him, Mahomes will be a star.

Sure, Eli Manning was put in an awful situation last season. His top receivers were out for the year by October. The offense was unimaginative. His offensive line couldn’t block anyone. But Manning didn’t play well, either. For a second year in a row. His arm just isn’t what it used to be, and it’s exposing the rest of his game. Eli was never very accurate and his decision-making has always been questionable. His waning arm strength has only highlighted those issues. Manning must adjust his game or he’ll continue to drop down the league’s quarterback hierarchy.

Remember when we were worried about a quarterback crisis in the NFL? Yeah, that can officially be put to rest when quarterbacks as solid as Andy Dalton are coming in this low. As the Bengals quarterback enter his 30s, his game hasn’t really evolved much since the early days of his career. He’s a bit more accurate, but he still has trouble adjusting to defenses shifting after the snap. When Dalton’s pre-snap read is correct, he looks like a top-15 quarterback. When it’s not, and he’s forced to go to his second and third options in the pocket, things start to break down.

I liked Deshaun Watson’s game a lot more after studying him on tape. He’s a quick decision-maker who is willing to go through his progressions when given time. But that’s also where is accuracy problems show up. Watson’s lower body mechanics need work, especially when he’s going from one read to the next. That’s to be expected for a 22-year-old quarterback with limited experience executing pro-style concepts. And with his ability to create, it’s not difficult to devise a scheme around those weaknesses.

His stat line won’t show it, but Mitch Trubisky was the best rookie quarterback we saw last season. He made quick decisions, whether it was based on his pre-snap read or when he was forced to go to the second and third receivers in his progression. A lot was made of the fact that Trubisky started only 13 games in college and didn’t play in the most complex offense at North Carolina, but you wouldn’t know it from watching his tape. He’s cool in the pocket and knows how to slide away from the rush to buy himself time. In an offense not crippled by John Fox’s draconian football philosophy, Trubisky should break out in 2018.

Playing in Sean McVay’s offense sure can make a quarterback look good. About as much as playing for Jeff Fisher can make a quarterback look bad. In last year’s edition of these rankings, we were higher on the 2016 first-overall pick more than most after his rookie season. Why? For many of the reasons that made him so good in 2017: Goff knows how to work the pocket, doesn’t need much time to find an open receiver and has the arm to get it anywhere on the field. But Goff’s accuracy needs to be better if this Rams offense is going to hit another gear in 2018. He left too many big plays on the field a season ago.

It turns out playing quarterback isn’t so easy when your offensive line isn’t providing you with wide open pockets that never seem to close. The Raiders offensive line wasn’t what it was in 2016, and that wreaked havoc on Derek Carr’s game. Some have excused his poor play because of injury — Carr suffered a transverse process fracture in October — but the problems that plagued his 2017 season were the same problems you could find on his tape whenever he had to deal with a less-than-stellar pocket in prior seasons: A lack of poise against pressure, poor footwork leading to high throws and a frustrating aversion to throwing the ball downfield when the situation called for it.

You can slap a big ol’ asterisks next to this ranking because we have no idea what to expect from Ryan Tannehill after he missed the entire 2017 season with a second major knee injury. The last time we saw him, Tannehill was thriving in Adam Gase’s offense thanks to a well-rounded game that doesn’t feature any obvious strengths but isn’t dragged down by any obvious weaknesses.

You can blame Marcus Mariota’s struggles on Mike Mularkey’s outdated offense all you want, but the Titans quarterback wasn’t very good in 2017. That doesn’t mean Mariota won’t improve in a scheme more suited to his strengths, because the 24-year-old certainly has shown flashes of top-shelf quarterback play through the first three years of his career. He’ll sit in the pocket and go through progressions — something he supposedly wasn’t able to do when he came out of Oregon — but he misses too many throws and will throw right into coverage at least once a game.

We’re not hopping on the Jimmy Garoppolo hype train just yet. At least not the one that already has him pegged as a top-10 quarterback. He could get there one day, but we’re not at that point yet. Garoppolo got away with a lot of throws that should have been intercepted, and even then, his interception percentage was below the league average. His other obvious flaw is his deep ball accuracy, though it has been better during the 2018 preseason. The rest of his game ranges from good to great. At this point in his career, his best attributes are his quick decision-making, his even quicker release and his willingness to deliver passes with a defender right in his face.

Injuries spoiled what could have been a breakout year for Jameis Winston in 2017. Sure, he still made too many boneheaded decisions and missed too many open throws, but he’s getting a better feel for NFL defenses and is starting to work the pocket like a 10-year vet. If the deep-ball accuracy he’s shown off during preseason carries over to the regular season, Winston will be a Pro Bowler in 2018.

Sam Bradford would rank A LOT lower on this list if durability were factored in. But this ranking is based on skill-set alone, and Bradford is one of the more talented throwers in the league. It’s the rest of his game that prevents him from becoming a top-10 quarterback. Well that and health, obviously. Bradford has a big arm and puts the ball where it needs to be, but he doesn’t harness his arm talent nearly enough. Bradford is just a little too willing to take what the defense gives him.

Kirk Cousins is the ultimate system quarterback. That’s not a dig on his game. It’s just the truth. When a play design works as it’s supposed to, Cousins will make the play nine times out of 10. When it doesn’t, he looks like a bottom-10 quarterback. Cousins just isn’t much of a play-maker and his lack of arm strength can affect his accuracy on throws aimed outside of the numbers. If you’re looking for an explanation for why Washington wasn’t willing to commit to Cousins long-term, there’s your answer.

Washington is going from one system quarterback to another. Though Alex Smith does provide a little more improvisation than his predecessor thanks to superior athleticism. His movement skills will add an element to Washington’s struggling run game that Cousins could never provide. Where the Redskins will miss Cousins is in the pocket. Smith just isn’t very comfortable with bodies around him, which will cause him to panic and miss receivers open downfield.

Dak Prescott’s sophomore slump was greatly exaggerated. His accuracy regressed and he didn’t take care of the ball as well as he did during his rookie season, but Prescott was largely the same player we saw during his rookie of the year campaign in 2016. He didn’t get any less comfortable in the pocket and still gets through his progressions. The biggest difference between last season and the prior one was his receivers were incapable of getting open, which forced Prescott to throw into tight windows. When accuracy isn’t a strong suit, that’s going to lead to more interceptions. Even with the poor performance of his supporting cast, Prescott had a damn good season outside one terrible three-game stretch. In late October, he was second in the league in QBR, trailing only Tom Brady.

Matt Ryan might be the most boring quarterback to watch on tape. He’s good at everything but there’s nothing he’s really exceptional at. He’s not going to wow you with arm strength. He’s more athletic than he’s give credit for, but nobody is going to confuse him for Russell Wilson. He’s accurate but not extraordinarily so. You get the point. Nobody is excited to pay Matt Ryan $30 million a year, but you won’t find anyone who will complain about it.

We don’t talk about how freaking big Carson Wentz is nearly enough. Look at this picture of him standing next to Fletcher Cox. That’s a defensive tackle! A big defensive tackle, at that. And Wentz moves like a 6-foot scrambler, which allows him to create plays outside of the structure of Philly’s well-designed offense. Combine that with his arm strength, and you get a quarterback capable of making plays that only he can make. Wentz’s decision making improved by leaps and bounds in 2017, which is the big reason he made the leap from promising prospect to MVP candidate in a year. He can make yet another leap by fixing his footwork and accuracy issues, which remain problematic even after he showed improvement in both areas this past season.

One of these years, Matthew Stafford will eliminate those handful of easily avoidable mistakes he seems to make every game and develop into a top-five quarterback. He certainly has the skill-set to be among the NFL’s elite, with that arm and ability to read defenses. Stafford just has a little too much faith in his arm and not enough consistency with his mechanics for us to put him there now. Even if it feels like he’s been in the league forever, he’s still only 30, so there’s still plenty of time for him to take that step.

There is a zero percent chance this ranking ends up being accurate by season’s end. Either Luck will be fully healthy, return to his 2016 form and outplay this ranking. Or he won’t be healthy, he’ll lose his arm strength and those tight window throws he loves so much will lead to a lot of ugly interceptions. His attributes above are based on his 2016 film, though we did shave a point off his arm strength for obvious reasons.

Cam Newton is never going to be an accurate quarterback, but the rest of his game continues to develop. The 2015 MVP still doesn’t get nearly enough credit for the pocket passer he’s become — mainly due to his accuracy problems. He manages pressure as well as anyone on this list not named Brees or Brady. He goes through his progressions while standing tall in the pocket, which is pretty much mandatory when you’re throwing to receivers who can’t get open. And his pre-snap work remains excellent. Newton still holds onto the ball too long, but that beats a quarterback who leaves the pocket too early. Newton is the rare scrambler who doesn’t.

His efficiency numbers may not reflect it, but Russell Wilson is a far better quarterback now than he was even two years ago. As the Seahawks have asked more of him, Wilson has been forced to evolve his game. He’s hanging in the pocket longer (though pocket presence isn’t one of his strengths, as he’ll run into plenty of sacks) and is getting to his second and third options more and more. Some of those wild scrambles we used to see have been replaced by more difficult throws. Wilson’s stat line may not look as good it once did, but Seattle’s passing game is now more robust. And it’s not like Wilson lost that innate ability to turn nothing into something. There isn’t a greater creative force in the league today — regardless of position.

Philip Rivers can see the future. His arm isn’t what it used to be. And it gets even worse as the season wears on, which takes a toll on his accuracy. But none of that matters when Rivers knows where all 11 defenders are going to be after the snap. You can throw any blitz or coverage at Rivers, and he’s going to diagnose it and shred it — if his arm allows him to, that is. But even with that weak arm, Rivers is still able to threaten defenses downfield thanks to his impeccable timing and touch.

It’s always difficult to rank Ben Roethlisberger. There are games when he looks like the best quarterback in the league. When he’s making smart pre-snap reads and getting the ball out on time and on target. When he’s shaking off pass rushers and hitting receivers in stride downfield. Then there’s the other Ben. The bad Ben. The Ben who threw five interceptions to the Jaguars early last season. The Ben that completed only 56% of his passes against a bad Bears team in an inexcusable loss. That Ben makes bad decisions and holds the ball too long. That Ben is the only reason he’s not mentioned with the names ahead of him on this list.

He’s third on this list, but Drew Brees still might be the most underrated quarterback in the league. For the first time in a while, Brees wasn’t forced to carry the Saints offense on his back, and he didn’t have to put up the gaudy volume stats we had grown accustom to over the last decade-plus. But Brees was excellent in 2017. He broke the NFL’s completion percentage record while leading the league in yards-per-attempt. And forget about the stats, Brees is still producing teaching tape at the quarterback position. Nobody manipulates a defense and opens throwing windows quite like him. And his accuracy remains the best in the game. The 39-year-old might not throw the deep ball like he once did, but he hardly misses a throw.

Aaron Rodgers is the most gifted player we’ve ever seen at the quarterback position. Quarterbacks with big arms aren’t supposed to be as accurate as he is. Quarterbacks who like to move aren’t supposed to be able to read defenses like he does. But Rodgers does it all, and does it all at a high level. He may hold onto the ball a little longer than he should, but that’s really the only area where the two-time MVP can improve.

We say this every year, but Tom Brady is still getting better. He’s moving in and out of the pocket better than he ever did. He’s throwing the deep ball more accurately than he ever did. He’s reading defenses faster than he ever has. He sees everything before the snap. And the guy just doesn’t miss throws. If someone starts to tell you, “The only way to rattle Tom Brady is…” just stop them right there, because there is no way to rattle him. He is the greatest quarterback of all-time, and the gap between Brady and No. 2 is growing every season.

Methodology

Rankings like these are always going to be subjective in nature, but we tried to eliminate any preconceived notions by disregarding stats and team success, which can be influenced by a number of factors outside of a quarterback’s control.

Instead, quarterbacks are judged based on film study. Every evaluation was based on all-22 game film from a few of that player’s most recent starts.

Emphasis has been placed on process rather than result. If a quarterback made the right play but was let down by a teammate or a defender made a spectacular play, he was graded positively. Conversely, if he made a poor decision but was bailed out, he was graded negatively.

Based on this film study, each quarterback is graded in six categories on a scale of 1-to-10, the averages producing the final scores determining the overall rankings. Here’s how those grades were weighted: Accuracy: 20% Arm Strength: 15% Creativity: 15% Pocket presence: 20% Decision making: 20% Pre-snap: 10%

Attributes

Accuracy:

This category is self-explanatory, but it goes beyond simply getting the ball to a target. How well does a quarterback place the ball? Does he allow the receiver to run after the catch? Can he consistently hit on deep balls? All of these factors go into a passer’s accuracy grade.

Arm Strength:

We’re not only grading a quarterback on how far he can sling it but also how he harnesses his arm strength. Does he know when to fire it in a tight window and when to throw a touch pass? Can he make the staple NFL throws, like a 15-yard out? Does he a throw a tight, wind-cutting spiral or is he prone to throwing ducks?

Creativity:

Any quarterback can look good when a play goes as planned. This category grades a player on his ability to go beyond the system and create plays. That could be with a highlight-reel scramble or a subtle pump fake to move a defender.

Pre-snap:

A quarterback’s job starts before the ball is snapped. Winning before the snap is almost as vital as winning after it. Does the quarterback see blitzes before they occur and act accordingly? Can he pick out mismatches or weaknesses in the defense and take advantage? If so, he’ll get high marks in this category.

Decision making:

Maybe the most important category on this list and certainly the most holistic. This grade factors in a quarterback’s ability to read defenses, find open receivers and make smart decisions with the football. A passer who knows when to make a throw, and when not to, can overcome his physical shortcomings.

Pocket Presence:

This category is all about how a quarterback commands a pocket. Can he go through his progressions with bodies around him or does he bail at the first sign of pressure? Does he climb the pocket or fade back, making his tackles’ jobs more difficult?