France appear vulnerable in the centre of defence and none of the full-backs are capable of shifting into the middle

Illustration: Graphic

France's main area of weakness is at centre-back, where Adil Rami and Philippe Mexès have endured a difficult few months at club level for Valencia and Milan respectively. Laurent Blanc surprisingly named only three centre-backs in his squad: Arsenal's Laurent Koscielny was included, but Montpellier's Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa missed the cut. "He'll be a national team player in the future – he's a fine discovery. Unfortunately, he's a defender," said Blanc, slightly confusingly, considering France appear understocked in that position, and none of the full-backs are capable of shifting into the middle. Koscielny is the lone reserve.

Rami and Mexès don't have a good understanding, despite being fielded together in over half of Blanc's games. The defence play high up the pitch but the centre-backs do not get in a covering position for each other when one is attracted towards an opposition striker. They often seem a huge distance apart, and as a result, big gaps appear.

On paper, this seems to suit Danny Welbeck more than Andy Carroll. Welbeck's winner against Belgium last weekend at Wembley is exactly the sort of goal France might be vulnerable to – a striker making a run from the channel on the outside of one centre-back, with the other too far away to sweep up. Carroll is more than just a target man and can also work the channels but Welbeck would thrive on the space in behind Rami and Mexès.

Photograph: Graphic

Throughout Blanc's two years in charge of the national team, he has frequently changed the structure of his midfield. Sometimes he has played one solid holding player in the "Makélélé role" at the base of a triangle, on other occasions he's used had two defensive midfielders in a 4-2-3-1.

For the England game, it will be the former – and that player will be Alou Diarra, with Yann M'vila unfit. Diarra played for Blanc's Bordeaux side, winning Ligue 1 in 2008-09, and was often fielded on his own at the base of a midfield diamond. Since then, however, he has become accustomed to playing alongside a midfield partner for his club, and during France's final warmup game on Tuesday night, a 4-0 win over Andorra, he often found himself being drawn out of central positions to track an opponent. That is acceptable in a 4-2-3-1, as his partner covers, but more dangerous in a 4-3-3, when he leaves space in front of the France defence.

Diarra, who is carrying a small knee injury, will be facing Ashley Young, who has scored or assisted 11 of England's last 20 goals. Young be fielded centrally behind England's main striker but as he is more accustomed to playing on the wing, Young tends to make lateral movements towards the flanks, presenting Diarra with a dilemma. If he stays in position, Young will go free. If he follows, there will be a gap in front of the defence – opening up space for Steven Gerrard or one of England's wide players to move into and have a shot from long-range.

Photograph: Graphic

Two of the last three goals France have conceded have been extremely similar. In their 2-1 friendly win over Germany in February, Thomas Müller got in behind the left-back Eric Abidal, Rami and Mexès were dragged across out of position to cover, and Müller fired a low cross along the six-yard line for Cacau to tap in at the far post, where Germany outnumbered France.

Exactly the same thing happened in their 3-2 friendly victory over Iceland two weeks ago, a game in which they were 2-0 down after 35 minutes. This time it was Patrice Evra playing at left-back – he was beaten by the pace of Rurik Gislason, who centred the ball for Kolbeinn Sigthorsson to apply a simple finish.

Evra's defensive positioning has been a concern for Manchester United and he has been struggling this week with a calf problem, missing training on Thursday. The most obvious player to take advantage of France's weakness in this position is Theo Walcott, especially as he gave Evra a difficult afternoon at Old Trafford last season – scoring a goal and winning a penalty by getting into that space behind the Frenchman, before Arsenal crumbled in the second half and lost 8-2. Walcott's final ball is often criticised but when he is ahead of the left-back he is capable of firing accurate, low balls across the box

Whether it is Walcott, James Milner or Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain on England's right, attacking the space behind Evra seems a wise tactic.