Indiana at Penn State

Betting Line: Penn State -14.5

Over/Under: 54.5

Indiana had a bye last week, and had a pretty strong showing in their last game. The Hoosiers blew out Northwestern 34-3 to improve to 7-2 on the season, which tied their highest win total since 2007. Indiana did have some bad news in their last game as quarterback Michael Penix Jr. went down with a collarbone injury that will end his season. In his place will be Peyton Ramsey who has seen time this season when Penix was battling injuries and also narrowly lost the quarterback battle in the fall. On the season, Ramsey has completed 72% of his passes for 1,302 yards on 8.3 yards per attempt and a touchdown to interception ratio of 9/3. Ramsey will have to step up this game as Penn State’s loaded defensive front will make developing the run game a challenge. Ramsey will look to slot receiver Whop Philyor often. Philyor leads the Hoosiers with 813 receiving yards, over 400 yards clear of second place on the team. The offensive line needs to hold up as well and five Ramsey sufficient time to throw. Offensive tackles Matthew Bedford and Caleb Jones need to play their part well. Stevie Scott leads the team in rushing and will need to be able to fight through tackles and get the hard yard. Defensively, the Hoosiers will need to be quick in the secondary. Penn State receiver KJ Hamler has some serious wheels and could burn Indiana’s cornerbacks if they are not careful. Cornerbacks Jaylin Williams and Tiawan Mullen will have tough tasks ahead of them. Indiana has struggled a bit when it comes to generating big plays defensively, and I think it could do them some good to buck that trend. There is not a single player on their defense that has more than four sacks or five tackles for loss. They also do not have a player with more than one interception. If any player can step up and make big plays, it will help Indiana shift the momentum of this matchup.

Penn State’s hopes of an undefeated season came to an end last week as they lost 31-26 at Minnesota. The Nittany Lions did not at all do a good job defending the pass as Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan completed 18/20 passes for 339 yards. While Indiana’s Peyton Ramsey might not be an absolute stud at quarterback, nobody claimed Tanner Morgan was and he diced up Penn State’s secondary. Cornerbacks Tariq Castro-Fields and John Reid need to have better games in terms of coverage. Penn State’s front seven should be good enough to get into the backfield without having to blitz aggressively, and I think they need to put a lot of focus into pass coverage. That strategy should work, but it does mean Yetur Gross-Matos, Shaka Toney, and Robert Windsor need to get into the backfield often. On offense, Sean Clifford needs to take better care of the ball. Clifford has had a good season in his first year a starter, but he threw three interceptions against Minnesota and completed just 53% of his passes. Clifford will have to pick up his performance if he does not want Penn State to have to sweat this game out. It would also help Clifford if he was protected well. I think Penn State has a matchup advantage in the trenches, and should be able to develop their run game well, and keep Clifford protected. Penn State also needs to not look ahead in this game. The Nittany Lions go to Columbus to play Ohio State next week, and they can not let that impending matchup distract them on Saturday.

Prediction:

Indiana hangs for a bit before Penn State pulls away and wins 34-17.

Navy at Notre Dame

Betting Line: Notre Dame -7

Over/Under: 54.5

Navy had a bye last week, and their last game was a dominant 56-10 win over Connecticut. The Midshipmen have had a very good season so far as they are 7-1, after going 3-10 last season. Quarterback Malcolm Perry has done a tremendous job leading the triple option offense. Perry has only completed 54% of his passes and has a mediocre touchdown to interception ratio of 5/3, but being accurate and careful passing is not really his job as he only throws seven times per game. Perry averages 13.5 yards per attempt and can take shots at opponents when yardage is needed. What is most important for Perry and the offense is that he leads the team with 1,042 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns while averaging 6.6 yards per carry. Perry runs the triple option quite well and can make quick reads well. If he can do the same thing on the ground and have an occasional accurate pass, Navy will be in a good spot. Fullback Nelson Smith will also be relied upon often to get the hard yard on third down and be an effective run blocker. Notre Dame has struggled defending the run, and I think if Perry, Smith, and tailbacks CJ Williams and Tazh Maloy can do their part and the offensive line blocks well, Navy will be a nightmare to stop. They can make things even tougher for Notre Dame if they can get ahead early. Defensively, Navy should stick to their aggressive play style as Notre Dame does not do too well in terms of generating big plays, partially negating the main draw back of their aggressive defensive play. I think their cornerbacks need to press at the line, and force Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book to beat them deep. Cornerbacks Michael McMorris and Cameron Kinley can not get outmuscled for contested passes by the likes of Chase Claypool. Causing any offensive discomfort for Notre Dame will go a long way.

Notre Dame had a nice win last week as they beat Duke 38-7. Ian Book struggled a bit in terms of accuracy and taking care of the ball, but he threw four touchdowns and ran for 139 yards. It would definitely held Notre Dame offensively in running backs Jafar Armstrong and a now healthy Tony Jones Jr. as having Book do everything could yield bad results, as it would with any quarterback that is not top tier. Book needs to be accurate with the ball this game, and receiver Chase Claypool and tight end Cole Kmet need to be able to catch contested passes. My biggest concern for a Notre Dame offensively will be ball security. Navy will try and bleed clock and lessen the number of possessions each team gets. With that, it means the Fighting Irish can not afford to give the ball away and waste a possession. Defensively, I am concerned with Notre Dame’s ability to stop the run. The run defense was not the great and that was before defensive tackle Daelin Hayes went down with an injury earlier in the season and now defensive end Julian Okwara broke his fibula against Duke, likely ending his season. This leaves a lot of pressure on defensive end Khalid Kareem and defensive tackle Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa. I think Notre Dame needs to be aggressive in stacking the box but also able to react quickly on option plays and not bite on fakes. I expect linebackers Drew White and Asmir Bilal as well as safety Jeremiah Owusu-Karamoah to be sent on blitzes often. Another key for the defense will be to make key stops on third and fourth down. Navy will not be afraid to go for it on fourth down and the Fighting Irish have to be ready for it.

Prediction:

Navy gives Notre Dame a scare before the Fighting Irish win 23-21.

Georgia at Auburn

Betting Line: Auburn +2.5

Over/Under: 44

Georgia had a pretty dominant win last week as they beat Missouri 27-0. Georgia’s defense was dominant throughput as Missouri went three and out six times. The Bulldogs kept their streak of not allowing a rushing touchdown all season continue and allowed just 50 rushing yards all game. I think Georgia should play aggressive defensively in this game. I think an aggressive style of play could slowly suffocate Auburn’s offense. I think if Auburn can not get consistent ground yardage, it will really give them no direction to go. Auburn quarterback Bo Nix has a lot of potential but he has not typically done well against good teams or good defenses. What Georgia does need to be careful of is Auburn’s group of receivers. The Bulldogs might need safety help over the top for whoever is covering Anthony Schwartz who might be literally be the fastest man in college football. On offense, it will come down to the matchup between Georgia’s offensive line and Auburn’s defensive line. These two position group might be at or near the top of the country in their position groups. If Georgia wins that matchup, their offense will be in a good spot. A lot will also ride on running back D’Andre Swift and how well he can fight through would be tacklers and find ways to add yards to his runs. Jake Fromm has had some bad moments at quarterback this season, but I think all he really needs to be ready to do this week is just be accurate in the short game and minimize turnovers.

Auburn had a bye last week, but they did not look too good the last time they were on the field. The Tigers beat Ole Miss, but it was a close game as they won just 20-14. While Auburn did well controlling the clock, they never completely separated themselves and let Ole Miss jag around all game. In this game, they will be playing against a much tougher defense that they will not be able to easily march down the field on. Auburn will need to have a good game along the offensive line if they want to get anywhere offensively. This is especially the case with running back JaTarvious Whitlow listed as questionable. If he does not play, it might be quite tough to find consistency in the run game. DJ Williams and Shaun Shivers will need to step up as secondary backs and need to keep drives alive. Quarterback Bo Nix will also have to be called on at times this game. What he needs to do is just be smart with the ball and minimize mistakes. Receivers Seth Williams and Anthony Schwartz need to also create separation and take some pressure off of Nix. On defense, Auburn needs to get resistance against Georgia’s elite offensive line. If Derrick Brown can start least gain ground in the interior, it will help generate chaos. I think Auburn’s cornerbacks should press start the line and force Jake Fromm to beat them deep. I think Fromm is a very good quarterback, but his accuracy and ability to throw it deep have been concerning.

Prediction:

Georgia wins a physical game 23-21.

Texas at Iowa State

Betting Line: Iowa State -7

Over/Under: 65.5

Texas snuck by Kansas State with a 27-24 win last week on a game winning field goal. The Longhorns had a nice win to end a potential skid, but they still had some struggles. Texas has still struggled defending the pass and these shortcomings will become more prevalent when playing a very good quarterback like Iowa State’s Brock Purdy. I think if Texas can not do well in coverage, Purdy is good enough to slowly pick them apart. I think this can be solved with tight coverage and also getting a good pass rush. Linebackers Joseph Ossai and Juwan Mitchell have been the best pass rushers in the team and if they can bring some pressure, it will help out the Longhorns quite a bit. On offense, Texas needs to protect Sam Ehlinger and make it to where he is not running around aimlessly to avoid the pass rush. Ehlinger will also need to play smart and not force throws. Having the run game develop with Keaontay Ingram again will be a big help. Ingram ran for a career high 139 yards last week, and it looks like he is beginning to emerge as a key part of the offense. Texas had a lot of success running zone reads with Ehlinger and Ingram and I think they should go back to that. Receiver Collin Johnson is listed as questionable as he is battling a hamstring injury. Devin Duvernay and Brennan Eagles need to step up in his absence.

Iowa State had a late surge against Oklahoma last week that ultimately fell short as they missed a two point conversion with 24 seconds left. The Cyclones had success slowly going downfield with Breece Hall at running back, and they should hope Hall is as successful in the ground as last week. What Iowa State should mainly focus on offensively is exploiting Texas’s weakness at cornerback. Receivers Deshaunte Jones and Tarique Milton need to get open and I think they should be able to on a fairly consistent basis. If Iowa State can milk that advantage, their offense will be set up quite well. Defensively, the Cyclones need to get a good pass rush. Linebacker O’Rien Vance leads the team in sacks by a good margin, and his presence in the backfield will really force Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger into making some snap decisions that could definitely end up going poorly. Using a quarterback spy on Ehlinger will also be essential as he loves to scramble. The likely man for the job will be nickel back Greg Eisworth, who I think should do well in the role.

Prediction:

Texas keeps it close but Iowa State works their Ames magic and wins 31-27.

Minnesota at Iowa

Betting Line: Iowa -3

Over/Under: 44.5

Minnesota had a program defining win last week as they beat then undefeated and fourth ranked Penn State 31-26. The Golden Gophers were led offensively by 339 passing yards from Tanner Morgan and 203 receiving yards from Rashod Bateman. This week, I think Minnesota will likely rely on the passing game again as Iowa has a very strong run defense. This means Minnesota’s offensive line will have to hold off some very good pass rushers. Left tackle Sam Schlueter will have the unfortunate task of blocking Iowa’s AJ Epenesa, who is a very physical pass rusher who often commands double teams. Schlueter can not let Epenesa set up shop in the backfield and he must give Morgan time to throw. The same goes for right tackle Daniel Faalele who will be matched up with Chauncey Golston. Bateman and fellow receiver Tyler Johnson make up a very strong duo and they will need to do their part in getting separation and giving Morgan a nice window to throw to. Running back Rodney Smith was not as impactful against Penn State but has typically been a key player on offense. If he can get consistent yardage and be reliable as usual, it will be very beneficial for the offense. On defense, the Golden Gophers need to get some resistance on Iowa’s offensive line. Iowa has two offensive tackles that could be first round draft picks, which will provide a big test for Carter Coughlin, Minnesota’s top pass rusher. If Coughlin can hold his own and win some of those matchups, it will tremendously help the defense. I think Minnesota’s other main focus defensively should be pass coverage. Iowa receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette is a rare player for Iowa in that he is a speed demon, and cornerbacks Coney Durr and Chris Williamson need to keep up in coverage. Thrones Tracy Jr. and Brandon Smith are also solid pass catchers for the Hawkeyes that will need attention put on them. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. is the likely best player in this defense and the Golden Gophers could definitely use his help in coverage as well.

Iowa fell just short last week as they lost to Wisconsin 24-22 after missing on a two point conversion with three minutes to go. Iowa’s biggest issue during that game was their failure to slow down Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor, who ran for 250 yards. While Minnesota’s Rodney Smith is not as good as Taylor, he has gone over 100 rushing yards five times and over 200 yards once. Smith will break down a run defense if they are not up to par and the Hawkeyes need to make sure they play up to par. Getting some penetration into the backfield and preventing Smith from breaking into the second level of the defense will be big. Star defensive end AJ Epenesa does not have the same stats he did last season, but the attention he has garnered from opposing offensive lines has freed up Chauncey Golston to make some big plays. Golston and Epenesa need to hold down their spots as do defensive tackles Brady Reiff and Cedrick Lattimore. Iowa also needs to be strong in coverage against Minnesota’s very strong duo at receiver. Matt Hankins and Michael Ojemudia will have their work cut out for them, but I think Minnesota could struggle offensively if their receivers struggle to get open. On offense, the Hawkeyes need to be able to punish Minnesota for looking to defend the pass. Running backs Mekhi Sargent and Toren Young need to get decent yardage on a semi consistent basis. It would also help out a lot if offensive tackle Alaric Jackson plays. Jackson is a possible first round pick next year who is listed as questionable for the game due to a knee injury. If Jackson does not play, backup Jack Plumb needs to minimize the drop-off as much as possible. Quarterback Nate Stanley needs to break his trend of seeing his performance drop off significantly against stronger competition. If he can keep his accuracy up and minimize turnovers, he will be fine.

Prediction:

Minnesota keeps the dream alive with a 20-19 win.

Oklahoma at Baylor

Betting Line: Baylor +10.5

Over/Under: 67.5

Oklahoma survived a real scare last week as they led Iowa State 42-21 at the end of the third quarter before Iowa State stormed back and was a two point conversion away from winning, but the Sooners escaped with a 42-41 win. Oklahoma’s biggest issue during that game was their inability to stop Iowa State from bleeding clock and slowly making their way downfield. Oklahoma will need to prevent that from happening against Baylor. Middle linebacker Kenneth Murray has a nose for the ball and I think he will play a huge role in stopping the run. If he can pursue quickly, it will make things tougher for Baylor. Defensive end Ronnie Perkins and defensive tackle Neville Gallimore will also be relied upon quite a bit for making stops and hopefully generating some negative plays against the run. One slight worry I have for Oklahoma is how their cornerbacks will cover Baylor’s larger receivers. Baylor’s Denzel Mims and Tyquan Thornton are both bigger receivers that will have a height advantage over whoever covers them. Cornerbacks Parnell Motley and Tre Brown can not get overpowered and outmuscled for contested catches. On offense, I think the Sooners need to let the run game develop. While I think Jalen Hurts is a very good quarterback, Oklahoma often asks him to do too much especially in terms of running the ball (I am starting to think that maybe Tim Beck infected the mind of Lincoln Riley with how much they have run with the quarterback). While Trey Sermon will miss this game with a knee injury, I think Kennedy Brooks is a solid back who should get his fair share of carries. Rha’Mondre Stevenson has also looked good in spots and I think he should get his share of carries too. I think that Hurts needs to also take care of the ball as he has started to be a bit turnover prone. It is nothing crazy, but I think an interception or fumble in a big game like this could prove to be costly.

Baylor survived an ugly game against TCU last week to remain undefeated as they won 29-23 in triple overtime. Baylor really struggled offensively as they mustered up just nine points in regulation. Baylor might not be playing an amazing defense (all Oklahoma’s defense did is play well against my Longhorns to make them look especially bad) but they will likely need to score some to keep pace with Oklahoma’s high powered offense. Quarterback Charlie Brewer struggled against TCU and never could generate any big plays through the air. I think Baylor needs to taken some downfield shots against Oklahoma and give Denzel Mims and Tyquan Thornton the opportunity to make some contested catches deep past the line. I think. Baylor also needs to be more effective on the ground than they were against TCU as running backs John Lovett and JaMycal Hasty had just 59 combined yards on 17 carries. On defense, Baylor needs to do well in coverage against Oklahoma’s star receiver CeeDee Lamb. Lamb is one of the best receivers in the country and could easily burn Baylor’s secondary if they are not careful. Jameson Houston and Raleigh Texada need to do well in coverage, and Grayland Arnold needs to be ready to help over the top. Baylor also needs to use a quarterback spy on Hurts especially on third down. There does not look to be a designated player to do it, but whoever does needs to make sure Hurts can not easily scramble.

Prediction:

Oklahoma ends Baylor’s undefeated season with a 37-31 win.

To be notified when I post, follow my Instagram @impassionedsportsnerd. Last week, I was 5-1 against the spread. I am 37-31-3 against the spread this season.

Share this: Twitter

Facebook

Like this: Like Loading...