After 16 years, Congressman Devin Nunes (R-Tulare) is set to face his first credible challenger in the Democratic upstart Andrew Janz.

Well, that's according to Janz.

But, does the Fresno prosecutor stand a chance of unseating the eight-term incumbent and Republican establishment darling?

Nearly all of the available data would suggest "no."

Still, the campaign waged against a Visalia son of immigrants continues to earn coverage across the state and nation.

No phonies allowed

What could a Democratic pathway to victory look like in one of California's most staunchly conservative districts, where President Donald Trump trounced Hillary Clinton by 10 points just two years ago?

Stephen Tootle, a College of the Sequoias history professor and vice-chair of the Tulare County Republican Central Committee, said the roots of Nunes' Central Valley supremacy can be traced back to a willingness to engage with his community.

More:Devin Nunes: How did Tulare's favorite son get in the middle of Trump, Russia probe?

Tootle says the politician first appeared on his radar when Nunes came to shake hands at Mearle's, the historic drive-in burger joint on Mooney Boulevard. It's now a Habit Burger Grill.

Tootle's father was a regular at the restaurant and Nunes' "straight-shooter" demeanor impressed him.

"If there's one thing the Central Valley won't abide, it's a phony," Tootle said.

Tootle, though he wasn't living in Visalia at the time, made an effort to research Nunes and his platform. He was impressed by the Tulare farmer's dedication to issues he thought mattered most to Central Valley constituents, from water law to tax reform.

A few years later, Tootle would have the opportunity to meet and work with Nunes.

Before he led the House Intelligence Committee, Nunes was a member of the COS Board of Trustees.

Tootle says Nunes continues to take an active interest in not only the state of affairs at COS but of education across the Central Valley as a whole.

"You won't see it listed on any (of Nunes') political scorecards, but he's a big proponent of education in the Central Valley," Tootle said. "He holds internship positions for COS students and has made himself available to college Republicans."

As for the congressman's recent controversies surrounding a declassified intelligence memo on Russia and Trump's Chinese trade war, which could disproportionately hurt Valley farmers, Tootle says he's not concerned.

"Devin will continue to serve and act in the best interests of his constituents, as he has for the past 16 years."

More:Congressional hopeful Andrew Janz has his sights set on 'taking back the Valley'

Summer of scandal

Other Central Valley residents have looked less kindly on Nunes' Washington activities. Tulare's so-called favorite son has seen a summer beset by scandal, from misappropriated campaign funds to a war with another Valley newspaper.

Among some, frustration with Nunes is borne out in a series of high-profile protests at the congressman's house, Clovis office, and in a series of billboards along Highway 99:

"Why is Devin Nunes hot on Russia..."

"While farmers get burned by a trade war with China?"

"Congressman Nunes, how could you forget us?"

Although Janz says he didn't pay for the ads, his campaign has capitalized on the message: Using one of Nunes' previous strategies — grassroots politicking in his own backyard — against him.

Nunes, on the other hand, says the billboards have helped him, because the designers decided to put large photos of Nunes along with small text that motorists are expected to read as they zoom by at 80 mph.

After Nunes earned 58 percent in the June Primary, he pointed to erroneous polls that said he would struggle to break 50 percent after nationwide controversy.

"It's scary what the media will do to create a massive fake news story," Nunes told the Times-Delta. "It has to be factual, and these fake news stories leading up to the primary were nothing but attacks. I enjoyed it. The stronger the attack, the more support we had."

Grassroots

Closer to the ground, Janz says he's lost track of how many homes he's visited and how many hands he's shaken over the past year. He's held more than two dozen forums for small groups.

The effort has resonated with some Valley voters. A few have been compelled to open their homes to the candidate and volunteer for a political campaign for the first time.

Lali Moheno, a former Tulare County supervisor, is one such volunteer.

Before President Trump's election, Moheno says she had been a longtime Nunes supporter.

Although Moheno has been a Democrat "all my life" she reasoned that Nunes, who comes from a Portuguese immigrant family, would be more concerned with immigration issues.

"Devin has lost touch," Moheno said. "Everything is the same, same, same."

Moheno says she has attended multiple Republican dinners hosted by Nunes, but she was met with "Republican jargon" at each event.

"Why isn't he talking about Tulare County?" she said. “This is a safe district for Devin – people like him. He shouldn’t be throwing that away.”

In a district where just 4 percent of Latinos aged 18-35 voted in June's primary elections, Moheno says she believes engagement with her community at a grassroots level is critical.

Earlier this week, Latina voters packed into Moheno's Visalia living room, as food from Vallarta Supermarkets and wine from her personal stash was passed around.

The group had turned out to meet Janz. Moheno says many in the crowd had never spoken to a politician before.

"The atmosphere was electric," Moheno said. "Many women stayed until the very end to share their concerns with Janz, who was very attentive."

For Janz, remaining attentive will be key, experts say.

"Janz is making the argument that Nunes is absent, off protecting the president, rather than dealing with constituents," said Thomas Holyoke, a professor of political science at Fresno State. "If Janz can make that argument stick, Nunes could be in trouble."

Janz says he's confident that he can.

"If Devin Nunes wants to continue to leave the door open, we're going to rush right through it," said Heather Grevin, Janz's campaign manager.

More:California 2018 primary election: Devin Nunes defends U.S. House seat against Andrew Janz

The numbers don't lie

Reality may prove trickier for Janz, according to summer and early fall polls.

A breakdown of Nunes' recent history at the ballot box doesn't fare well:

Nunes won 67.6 percent of the vote in 2016.

In 2014, Nunes swept the election with 72 percent of the vote, for a 44 percent victory margin — the widest of his career.

2012 saw the congressman's narrowest margin of victory, a still-impressive 23.8 percent.

A tally of registered voters in California's 22nd congressional district, which encompasses parts of Tulare and Fresno counties, is similarly bleak for Janz.

There are 347,704 registered voters in the district, according to reports from Tulare and Fresno counties' Registrar of Voters. Of those, 144,431 voters registered as Republicans and 114,470 registered as Democrats.

About 73,000 listed "No Party Preference" and are theoretically independent, though a blue candidate hasn't been elected to represent Tulare County.

“By all calculations, (CA-22) is not the district Democrats should be targeting,” Holyoke said.

These lopsided numbers are reflected in national polling, too.

Sabato's Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political forecasting service run by the University of Virginia Center for Politics, has Nunes' seat as "likely Republican."

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, which came closest to predicting President Trump's 2016 election, puts Janz's chances of flipping the seat at just over 5 percent.

Even polls recently released by Janz's own campaign have him trailing behind the incumbent.

The most recent, a survey of 402 "likely general election voters" predicts a Janz loss by 6 percentage points.

While Nunes didn't release his polling publicly, his campaign officials aren't rushing him into the district for voters to see.

That could be a mistake, according to Holyoke.

"(Nunes) should be careful of underestimating the challenge," he said. "Taking constituents for granted has cost Valley politicians in the past."

Janz has pointed to a series of commercials by Nunes as evidence that the congressman is beginning to feel the Democrat's heat.

"We've put Nunes on the offensive," Grevin said. "He's running the attack ads because he's scared."

The congressman's team, though, says the ad campaign is meant to shed light on "lies."

“(Janz’s campaign) was attacking us so hard, we felt we had to have a response,” said Chief of Staff Anthony Ratekin.

The Nunes camp has an old saying, Ratekin added: "Elections are the only polls that matter."