BALTIMORE — Bernie Sanders looks to be headed for a rough ride through the Acela corridor.

Here in Maryland, where Hillary Clinton locked up much of the state’s political establishment last year while the state’s former, Gov. Martin O’Malley, was still in the race, she leads by more than 20 percentage points in the polls. On Monday, she was endorsed by The Baltimore Sun, the state's largest daily newspaper.


It’s a similar story in each of the four other Northeastern states voting Tuesday — Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island — where Sanders is also up against a wall of institutional support for Clinton. And there are other powerful forces working against him, among them, demographics and closed primaries.

Former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a longtime Clinton supporter, predicted that the four states using a closed primary format — where only registered Democrats can vote in the Democratic primary — will prove especially challenging for Sanders, whose best primary performances have come in states where voters don’t need to be Democrats to participate.

“Wherever it’s a primary for Democratic voters she does much better,” Rendell said of Clinton.

In a best-case scenario, Sanders might pull out a win or two Tuesday and keep it close in a delegate-rich state like Pennsylvania. It’s not out of the question: He’s outspent her on television and radio ads in all five states and attracted thousands of supporters to his trademark rallies.

But even so, the senator’s best-case scenario wouldn’t make much of a dent in Clinton’s delegate lead — currently at 275 pledged delegates.

The calendar looks more promising for Sanders in May, when states like Indiana, Oregon and West Virginia offer him better odds. But a bad night Tuesday, piled on the senator’s bruising 16-point defeat in New York last week, could lead his campaign to rethink its path going forward.

Here’s the state-by-state Democratic breakdown for Tuesday:

Connecticut: 71 delegates

Connecticut is shaping up to be one of Tuesday’s bigger nail-biters.

Recent polling has shown Clinton's lead there narrowing to within single digits. While the state has the typical features of a Clinton-friendly state — a closed primary and a sizable minority population — there are also a few aspects that give hope to the Sanders camp.

In 2008, the state voted for President Barack Obama over Clinton. And Sanders was able to attract a crowd of 10,000 to a rally he held Sunday night in New Haven, home to Yale University. That’s a promising sign for a candidate whose campaign has been powered by young Democratic voters.

But the state’s demographics — relatively diverse for a New England state — favor Clinton, who’s run much stronger among African-American and Hispanic voters.

“Much has been made about Sen. Sanders’ string of states [that he won], but they were in states that were in many ways set up for him to win — ethnically, racially, religiously and the participation rules,” Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy, a Clinton supporter, told POLITICO. “Out in this part of the country, we actually believe Democratic voters should vote in Democratic primaries and that unaffiliated voters should join us in our party.”

Clinton’s campaign has hit Sanders hard on the issue of gun control in a state that suffered through the Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre. On Wednesday, the Clinton campaign released a TV ad in Connecticut and Rhode Island featuring the daughter of the school’s late principal urging supporters to vote for Clinton. Clinton and her allies see the state as a prime opportunity to attack Sanders on his support for a gun purchasing loophole.

“I think if you talk about a section of the country where gun safety, reasonable regulation of guns is extremely popular, that’s true in New York, it’s true in Connecticut,” Malloy said. “Every time [Sanders] had an opportunity to do the right thing on guns he did the wrong thing.”

A larger problem for Sanders, Connecticut Democratic Party chairman Nick Balletto said, is that the Vermont senator’s recent 16-point loss in New York resonated in Connecticut.

“The Sanders people did put a large early effort here in Connecticut and were pretty organized early on, opened a headquarters and put a good force down on the ground,” Balletto said. “So I think they were more organized early on. I think coming off of New York, people are a little more energized and a little more excited about the Clinton campaign.”

Delaware: 31 delegates

What little polling exists in the Delaware primary suggests Clinton has the edge. It comes as no surprise: It's a closed-primary state with a sizable and politically active African-American population. During the 2008 primary, black voters composed 28 percent of the Democratic vote.

“I feel like it feels pretty good here for Secretary Clinton,” Delaware Gov. Jack Markell, one of a number of top elected officials in Delaware backing Clinton, told POLITICO. Markell added that even if the state had an open primary, “she would do well because I just think that her brand of politics will play very well here.”

Many of the state’s top officeholders are backing Clinton, including both senators and the mayor of Wilmington, the biggest city in a very small state. The city’s population is about 60 percent black and 30 percent white — fertile ground for Clinton.

While both candidates visited the state just once, Democrats say that advertising and media coverage in Maryland and Pennsylvania, two states where Clinton polls strongly, will spill over to Delaware.

“Two-thirds of the state is in the Philadelphia media market, so anything that she does there will spill over here, and the advertising she does there will spill over here,” Markell said. “The southern part of the state is part of the Salisbury, Maryland, media market. There is significant overlap.”

Former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a top Clinton surrogate, made the same point in a separate interview. “Delaware is very close to Pennsylvania, it’s in the same media market,” Rendell said.

Maryland: 118 delegates

After Pennsylvania, Maryland is Tuesday’s biggest prize. And like Pennsylvania, it’s a closed primary state where Clinton is heavily favored.

Recent polling shows Clinton with a more than 20-point lead. While an active Democratic Senate primary is expected to boost voter turnout, both of those prominent candidates are backing Clinton.

“Hillary ran with the strong backing in 2008 in Maryland of a lot of the same people — Sen. Mikulski, Sen. Cardin, Gov. O'Malley at that time,” said Susan Turnbull, former chairwoman of the state Democratic Party. “So there are a lot of people who actually campaign with her, for her, are from Maryland, who are engaged again and who just want to see this happen.”

In 2008, 37 percent of the Maryland Democratic primary vote was cast by African-Americans, giving Clinton a considerable edge. On Saturday, Sanders sought to gin up support among African-American voters here in Baltimore with a rally featuring Danny Glover and Kendrick Sampson, but the 6,600-person rally was relatively small by the senator’s standards — and consisted mostly of white supporters.

“My gut says more likely than not she wins Maryland, because I think Maryland’s the kind of state that favors her candidacy. We’re not the kind of state where Bernie Sanders is doing well and winning,” said state Democratic Party Chairman Bruce Poole, who is unaligned.

Pennsylvania: 210 delegates

Sanders has called the state’s closed primary on Tuesday “enormously important,” and repeated his standard claim that his chances are good if turnout is high.

But even a strong turnout may not be enough for the Vermont senator, since polling shows Clinton with a double-digit lead.

Clinton, who won the state by 9 points in 2008, has the endorsements of Sen. Bob Casey and Gov. Tom Wolf, as well as the mayors of of the state’s two biggest cities — Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. She’s also been endorsed by The Philadelphia Inquirer.

“The Clintons are known here,” said former state Democratic Party chairman T.J. Rooney. “Either one of them could pick up the phone and call ward leaders and state committee folks and it would not be the first or second or third time they received a call. So there is that longevity, that familiarity. They’re well-regarded. It’s hard in this state, in this environment to generate the kind of enthusiasm that Sen. Sanders would need to generate.”

Pennsylvania Democrats also point to Clinton’s roots in the state: Her father was born in Scranton, and her family vacationed nearby when she was a child.

“Hillary Clinton is very well known throughout Pennsylvania,” said former Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter. “She has family roots and history in Pennsylvania. She’s come to Pennsylvania numerous times, certainly Philadelphia and other parts of Pennsylvania, so I think that’s just a part of who she is and what she’s about. I mean she’s not new to the state. I, personally, have no idea how many times prior to this presidential race that Sen. Sanders has been in Pennsylvania. But on the other hand, generally for what reason would he be coming to Pennsylvania? He’s a senator from Vermont.”

Rhode Island: 33 delegates

Rhode Island is one of Sanders’ best prospects for victory Tuesday.

The state’s primary format is semi-open — meaning unaffiliated voters can choose to vote in the Democratic primary — which works to Sanders’ advantage. And a primary-eve Public Policy Polling survey found Sanders leading Clinton 49 percent to 45 percent, the only recent public poll in any of the five states where Sanders has been ahead.

Sensing opportunity in chief strategist Tad Devine’s home state, the Sanders’ campaign spent over $230,000 on television and radio advertising there over the past week, more than double the Clinton campaign’s spending.

Clinton and her husband, the former president, have campaigned in the state four times in the lead-up to the primary compared to Sanders’ single visit. She has the support of top party leaders, including Gov. Gina Raimondo, whom she campaigned for during Raimondo’s 2014 bid.

The paucity of Sanders’ visits has been noticed.

“I haven't seen him in Rhode Island. He was just in Vermont. It’s a short ride, he could have just drove down but he chose to fly to Pennsylvania or some other place that he thought was more important,” Rhode Island Democratic Party Chairman Joseph McNamara said on Thursday, ahead of a large Sanders rally that drew a crowd of 7,000 in Providence.



There’s one potential trouble spot to watch Tuesday: The state Board of Elections is opening just 144 polling stations for the April 26 primary, down from 177 that were available for the March 2008 Democratic primary.

“Obviously, the decrease in precincts means there’s longer lines and there’s the likelihood that people will turn away if they wait too long like any other election, and I think low turnout is not great for a candidate like Bernie Sanders,” said former state Democratic Party executive director Jonathan Boucher.

