Written by Timothy Lewis (@MrTeeLew) — December 7th, 2017

It’s playoff time! The trade deadline has passed and there’s little to be said about rising prospects (*cough* Josh Gordon *cough cough*) at this point of the season. However, there are plenty of trends and takeaways yet to be had. This week, I gathered my most off-base data-driven conclusions to see where they went wrong, and tried to reprimand them in time for crunch-time adjustments. After all, I should be held accountable and you deserve good information. Here goes nothing. Cheers!

What happens next? All new episode of “Who not to roster!” via Jeffrey Beall (Wikimedia commons)

For the record, I still believe Devontae Booker is the best all-around talent in Denver’s backfield. That said, I should have never gone astray from my week 7 take, warning fantasy players to be wary of the team’s backfield. The combination of league-worst quarterback play and a middling offensive line has made the Broncos’ offense a fantasy wasteland. I saw it coming, but then I didn’t. Booker’s rising snap share each week he returned from injury proved to be a false flag, as the 59% figure following week 11 dropped to 44% in week 12, and then plummeted to a mere 15% in week 13. Considering the Broncos have failed to reach 20 points in 9 out of their last 10 games, it’s safe to assume their logical precedent is throwing stuff at the wall and seeing what sticks.

Vernon Davis getting subbed out for Niles Paul via Keith Allison (Flickr)

My take “heading into week 9” was initially strong. Key word: “Initially.” From week 9–11, Davis averaged over 5 catches and 70 yards per game, a far better clip than his previous performances with Reed out of the line up had indicated. Over the past two games, the Washington tight end has played against the Giants and Cowboys. Dallas is a middling defensive unit around league average in both D/ST scoring and TE fantasy points allowed. New York is among the league’s worst in both metrics. In these games, Davis recorded a total of 2 catches on 3 targets for just 15 yards while being out-performed by back-up and usual third-stringer, Niles Paul. This is not an endorsement of Paul, whose season high in targets is 5 — a figure he’s reached only once. Instead, it has been Jamison Crowder dominating inside the hash marks. He’s seen double digit targets in 3 of his last 5 games, breaking 100 receiving yards twice and recording no less than 67 in that span. Outside of Samaje Perine and Kirk Cousins, Crowder is the only Washington asset worth starting consideration on a weekly basis.

Golden Tate insta-healing via Flickr

Kenny Golladay is the man. It just hasn’t happened yet. This take was on the heels of what appeared to be a return from a hamstring injury in conjunction with what was supposedly going to be a multi-week absence for Golden Tate. Instead, Tate didn’t miss any time with an AC joint sprain and Golladay didn’t return from an ailing hamstring until week 10. When healthy, the rookie receiver handles the majority of snaps as the team’s third receiver, with a snap share over 70% the past two weeks. He’s also 2nd in the league in yards per target on the NFL’s 7th most pass-happy team. These details aside, for fantasy purposes it appears to be a weekly toss-up as to who between Marvin Jones and Golden Tate will bring home the bacon. As of late, the more consistent bet is the former. Speaking of Jones, he’s well on his way to a career year, having scored 8 touchdowns with a realistic chance to register his first 1,000 yard season.

Doug Martin, from when that meant something via Keith Allison (Flickr)

A feature back with multiple seasons finishing as a top-10 option at the position available in the 5th and 6th rounds of drafts? Sign me up! There was no larger lapse in judgement than my confidence in the Boise State product this year. Yes, the Bucs’ run blocking has been quite poor but that’s no excuse. Doug Martin has failed to reach 90 yards in a game this year, while both Jacquizz Rodgers and Peyton Barber have managed to break 100. Even worse, Martin averages an inexcusable 3.5 yards per touch. Not per carry, per touch. He averages just 3.2 yards per carry. What we do have is a clear depiction of what Tampa Bay’s backfield looks like in the Muscle Hamster’s absence: A heavy dose of Peyton Barber, who stayed on the field for 70% of offensive snaps in week 13. It may be worth following how the backfield unfolds upon Martin’s return, who will somehow manage to be an even less valuable fantasy asset than he was prior to his concussion. A speculative Barber add might not be the worst idea if you’re depending on Alex Collins (migraines), Joe Mixon (concussion), or Adrian Peterson (neck).

Something something Jets via Jack Kurzenknabe (Flickr)

What a stinker. Always bet on talent, not contract situation. The opportunity was there for McGuire, with both Matt Forte and Bilal Powell struggling with injuries heading into week 6. Amassing just 16 yards on 10 carries and seeing no work in the passing game, the rookie running back was extremely inefficient and poorly utilized. There’s not a single standout metric to give hope that McGuire is more than just a guy. Both Forte and Powell have been better on a per touch basis and continue to see the majority of the work, although neither consistently outpaces the other in snap share week-to-week. While it’s hard to be excited over any Jets’ back, it should be one of the veterans that draws interest in the event of an injury.

Week 4 Take: Move over Jarvis, there’s a new sheriff in town

And his name is not DeVante Parker. There are tantalizing aspects to the 3rd year receiver’s game. He’s already among the league’s best in snatching jump balls (9th in contested catch rate). However, he’s had the necessary volume to be a dominant asset this season and it simply hasn’t materialized. In 6 of his first 7 games, Parker had 8 or more targets, and may have done so every game if not for his week 5 injury. Over the last two, Parker has a total of 7 targets, 2 catches and 10 receiving yards. Despite ample opportunity, the Louisville product has failed to deliver and the team has taken notice. In his stead, Kenny Stills has shown up. Over the past 4 games, he has seen 8 or more targets 3 times, has broken 90 yards twice, and has 2 TDs. He and Landry have become the 1A and 1B in this offense, not necessarily in that order, leaving Parker in the dust.

Want to keep up with The RYM? Like us on Facebook, follow us on Twitter, or join our mailing list below!