Story highlights Julian Zelizer: The political impact of the first charges in Mueller investigation will be just as important as the legal issues at play

Depending on how Trump's team handles the fallout, this presidency could go the way of Nixon or Reagan

Julian Zelizer is a history and public affairs professor at Princeton University and the author of "The Fierce Urgency of Now: Lyndon Johnson, Congress, and the Battle for the Great Society." He's also the co-host of the "Politics & Polls" podcast. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own.

(CNN) Early Monday, former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort surrendered to special counsel Robert Mueller, who was brought in to investigate possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. Former Trump campaign official Rick Gates was also told to turn himself in. This follows CNN's Friday night story, citing sources briefed on the matter, which revealed that a federal grand jury has approved the first charges in the investigation.

Regardless of who else is charged and what the charges are, it is clear that the news constitutes a major political blow to President Donald Trump. After a week when the President attempted to spin a story about Hillary Clinton's corruption and collusion vis-a-vis the Russians, when some Republicans called on Mueller to resign and when the administration insisted that the congressional investigations come to an end, the hard-hitting Mueller may have shifted the conversation.

The impact of the first charges will be as much about how they are handled politically as they are legally.

And it is far from clear how this drama will unfold. The charges on Monday could have a similar effect as the Watergate indictments in March 1974, when several of President Richard Nixon's top aides and a lawyer for his reelection campaign were indicted for perjury, obstruction of justice and a conspiracy to cover-up the 1972 break-in at the Democratic headquarters.

Although we often praise Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein for bringing down the President with their reporting, special prosecutor Leon Jaworski had a huge impact as well. When Americans read on the front pages of their papers that John Mitchell (former Attorney General and chairman of the Committee to Reelect the President), H.R. Haldeman (former chief of staff), John Ehrlichman (former domestic advisor), Charles Colson (former White House counsel) and others were indicted, they were shocked.

Read More