assembly-elections

Updated: Oct 25, 2019 06:36 IST

Results and trends of the Maharashtra Assembly elections saw the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena combine return to power, despite losing some electoral ground in the state and winning 27 fewer seats than it did in 2014 (when the two parties contested separately). Analysts attribute this to a robust campaign mounted by Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) around bread-and-butter issues.

While the NCP raised issues such as the economy, jobs, widespread floods in the state and dwindling farm incomes, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine’s campaign was focused on a nationalist discourse around the nullification of Article 370, terrorism emanating from Pakistan and a proposed Bharat Ratna for Hindutva ideologue, Veer Savarkar. To be sure, the BJP also stressed its development credentials.

Rural distress and the economic slowdown were not the deciding factors in the polls in the western state where about 90 million voters cast their ballots but issues raised by the opposition, especially the NCP, did cost the BJP-Shiv Sena some votes, analysts say. The NCP won or was leading in 53 seats in the state; along with the Congress and its other allies, it won or was leading in 103 seats.

“Agriculturalists, whether they are in the sugarcane belt of western Maharashtra or the cotton belt of Vidarbha have suffered for various reasons. But if the agrarian issue was very pronounced, then we would have seen the opposition do far better than what they managed,” said Raju Shetti, former MP and the leader of Shetkari Sangathana, who hails from the sugarcane hub of Kolhapur . The farm body’s political arm was part of the NCP-Congress alliance.

The NCP’s Sharad Pawar mounted one of the most aggressive campaigns seen in recent years, which swayed voters in the sugarcane belt of western Maharashtra.

The NCP was poised to win more than 90% of the seats in the region.

In his campaigns, Pawar focused on the economy, jobs and agrarian issues, steering clear of issues that were at the heart of the BJP’s campaign, such as nullification of Article 370, terror and Pakistan.

“I think the NCP-Congress managed to win close to 100 seats only because of Pawar. Had a united opposition backed him more, including leaders like Prakash Ambedkar, we would have had a different government,” said Jayant Mainkar, a political analyst from Mumbai.

“Farmers never vote as farmers . Farmers vote as Dalits, Marathas or Kurmis and Yadavs in UP and Bihar. That’s the reality. But the issue of jobs, economy and agriculture did impact the BJP a bit,” said Jagdish Inamdar, a farm leader from Nashik, who is also associated with the Shetkari Sangathan.

Analysts say the dominant Maratha community may have felt an Enforcement Directorate (ED) notice to Pawar was a case of political vendetta against the aged politician. Addressing a rally in Satara on October 19, a sudden shower drenched Pawar, but he continued to talk, raising the issue of farm incomes and the damage wrought by floods.

“That touched the heart of the people. Pawar is a tall leader with 40 years in public life. The ED notice on him backfired,” said Mainkar.

In western Maharashtra, the Congress- NCP alliance won or was leading in 40 seats of the 66 in the region, 22 more than in 2014 when the two fought the elections separately.

Agriculture in the state suffered a double blow this year. While the first half of the June-September monsoon season was deficient, which impacted sowing, the second half witnessed widespread crop-damaging floods.

The state has six regions: north, Konkan, Mumbai-Thane, Western, Vidarbha and Marathwada. Western Maharashtra, a sugarcane belt, was a bastion of the NCP before 2014. Vidarbha and Marathwada, the cotton belt, has seen a spate of farmer suicides.

Maharashtra witnessed three droughts in the last five years of the Devendra Fadnavis-led government. The state government spent more than Rs 7,000 crore on drought relief. Farm experts blame the government for speaking more on the relief measures than attempting to improve infrastructure in the agriculture sector.

“Even after implementing the ambitious water conservation drive, Jalyukt Shivar scheme, the groundwater level in Marathwada has dropped in the last three years. This means the government has failed to achieve its announcement of drought free villages. Besides, the government has also failed to improve infrastructure in the agricultural sector,” said Ashok Tangade of Lok Jagar, an NGO working for farmers in Marathwada.

Chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, who was initially against a loan waiver, had to announce one in June 2017 — worth Rs 34,020 crore for 8.9 million farmers.

The government managed to disburse only Rs 18,761 crore to 4.4 million farmers, though. “Many farmers in rural parts have not received any benefit from the loan waiver. Similarly, compensation out of the crop insurance has been very meagre. There has been unrest among voters over these issues. The farmers are irked over the state government’s advertisement spree and tall claims of the benefits extended to the farmers,” Chandrakant Wankhede, a farm activist from Vidarbha said.

In the end though, such factors jolted the ruling alliance, but stopped well short of derailing it.