In the case of Labor, it came when Gillard read The Sydney Morning Herald disclosure that Rudd's chief of staff, Alister Jordan, was testing the support for Rudd among Labor MPs. Prime Minister Tony Abbott address the media after two Liberal MPs revealed plans to trigger a leadership spill. Credit:Christopher Pearce But the analogy does not extend beyond that point. In Gillard's case, she and her lieutenants seized the opportunity to precipitate their immediate challenge for the leadership. In Bishop's case, she did not sever the relationship with her leader. She did not move to organise a challenge. She gritted her teeth and braced herself to continue as deputy to a suspicious and increasingly isolated leader. She knew that there was a spontaneous upwelling of angry discontent among Liberal MPs. How could she not? Her colleagues had been asking her to run against Abbott. But she did not seek to channel the revolt to serve her own ambition. Indeed, she had been telling agitated backbenchers to give Abbott more time.

Bishop was determined not to be Gillard. Remarkably, as Abbott announced on Friday, her loyalty now extends so far as standing by her leader to oppose a spill motion in the Liberal party room. This is one of the central differences between the two episodes. Rudd was brought down by a coup led by the deputy leader and an echelon of factional lieutenants. Abbott is under attack in a spontaneous revolt by the lowly footsoldiers of his party, the backbench members of parliament. Supporting the PM: Julie Bishop. Credit:Gary Warrick But after rebuffing Bishop's spontaneous offer of unity last week, Abbott next tried to engineer a forced one this week. The pair next saw each other three days later at the prime minister's official Sydney residence, Kirribilli House. Abbott was to host a dinner for British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond and Defence Secretary Michael Fallon, who were visiting for annual Australia-UK ministerial consultations. Julie Bishop and Tony Abbott during happier times in Parliament House. Credit:Fairfax Australia

The big political news of the weekend was the shock Queensland election result. A first-term conservative government with an enormous majority had been thrown from office. The sense of foreboding among federal Liberals deepened. In a private conversation before the dinner, Abbott probed Bishop's loyalty. "Come on," she replied, "I shouldn't have to do this. I'm not your problem. You're your own worst enemy." The next morning Fairfax Media reported that Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop, under growing pressure from colleagues to challenge Abbott, were actively considering their options for the first time. I shouldn't have to do this. I'm not your problem. You're your own worst enemy Abbott delivered his speech to the National Press Club. The speech was spruiked by his lieutenants as buying him time. It was dismissed by his critics as inadequate. The events of the days since show that it did nothing to arrest the crisis in the Liberal Party. During the question and answer, Sky news reporter Kieran Gilbert put to Abbott: "You met with Julie Bishop last night, did you ask her for a commitment that she should not challenge you and if so what did she say?" Abbott ducked: "Julie's a friend of mine, Julie's my deputy, she's been a terrific deputy, she's been a terrific minister, I believe I have her full support and I certainly look forward to continuing to have that." But perhaps he wasn't so sure. Gilbert later reported that, according to unnamed sources, Abbott had indeed asked her for a commitment that she wouldn't challenge him and that none was forthcoming. In Abbott's circle fear was afoot. Industry Minister Ian Macfarlane went public and issued an ultimatum to Bishop. "We need to see a situation where the Government governs," he told the ABC.

"I'd call on both Malcolm — who I know is not planning any leadership challenge because he gave me that assurance — but I also call on Julie Bishop to make that assurance." Bishop had been telling reporters that she had been deputy for seven years; that she didn't need to daily rule out doing something she clearly was not doing – challenging Abbott. But on hearing Macfarlane, an exasperated Bishop decided to give an assurance not to the media but to the Abbott cabinet when it assembled later the same day. "You are all calling on me to publicly make a statement," she said, looking directly at Macfarlane. "I am not campaigning for the job of prime minister, I am not ringing the backbench asking for support, I am not counting any numbers, I will not challenge the leader. "Now that I've told you first, I'm going to tell the media." It was a pointed rebuke to Macfarlane and to whoever had informed Kieran Gilbert in the first instance. The atmosphere relaxed as ministers joked that it was an authorised cabinet leak. Bishop left the room to phone reporters. Remarkably, the eyes of the assembled ministers did not all turn to Turnbull. All suspicion seemed to attach to the Foreign Affairs Minister and none to the Communications Minister. There was no further talk of the leadership.

Yet Turnbull was the most likely and most viable of the leadership rivals to Abbott. He was the real candidate. Oddly, while pursuing Bishop on the subject Abbott did not seek reassurances from Turnbull, publicly or privately, over his ambitions. Turnbull has occupied a delicate position in recent days. When he decided to remain in parliament after losing the leadership, Turnbull made a commitment not to damage Abbott, the man who tore him down, in any way. Conscious of his promise, aware that he is a member of the Abbott cabinet, he has been careful to avoid actually asking colleagues whether they would vote for him in a leadership ballot. But he has gone close, talking to many colleagues, asking them for their views, discussing the party's situation and Abbott's prospects. But Turnbull, like Bishop, has not been undermining the prime minister. "There has been no campaign of destabilisation against Abbott," a minister attests."He has had a clear run." Bishop has performed impressively as Foreign Affairs Minister. Abbott repeatedly named her as a "star" among his ministers. She is poised, articulate, tough. She has stood up to intimidation from Beijing in defence of Australia's right to speak its mind when China has destabilised the region with its territorial ambitions. She has privately confronted Russia's Vladimir Putin over the shootdown of MH17 and she galvanised the UN Security Council into giving political protection to the recovery operation. She has cultivated backbenchers, agreeing to appear in their electorates and help them with fundraisers. Her public recognition has soared. Her standing in polls testing public opinion for preferred Liberal leader has risen until she eclipses Abbott and rates second only to Turnbull. But Turnbull rates number one, as he has consistently for years. He is a former party leader. He has had a high public profile not just for a decade but for over two decades. He has been prominently successful in several fields, including the law and investment banking as well as politics. He is a gifted orator. He is independently wealthy. Both have felt failure. Bishop was demoted from the Treasury bench in opposition. Turnbull self-detonated as opposition leader in his mishandling of the Godwin Gretch affair of fabricated accusations against Kevin Rudd. That made him vulnerable to internal challenge over his climate change policy, which appealed to the left of his party but aroused the ire of its right.

But of the two, the emerging sentiment in the party is that Turnbull is the more rounded, the more complete, and the readier to lead. A Liberal senator, a factional operative in the conservative arm of the Liberal Party, said this week that Turnbull was, in other circumstances, unacceptable as leader because of his centrist policy stance. "But when you're heading over a cliff, anyone who can rescue you starts to look pretty attractive." Turnbull's standing in the business community is a distinguishing credential. In briefings to the Abbott cabinet this week, the governor of the Reserve Bank, Glenn Stevens and the secretary of the Treasury, John Fraser, agreed on the missing ingredient for a thriving economy – business confidence. They emphasised that the elements of a faster-growing economy were in place, with the standout exception of confidence. The Australian dollar has fallen dramatically, restoring much lost competitiveness. Interest rates are low. Wages are not growing but remain stable. Inflation is well in check. The services and agriculture sectors are poised for growth. But business confidence is low. It fell after the federal budget last May and has remained feeble since. And that means that firms are reluctant to take risks, to invest, to expand, to hire. Both Stevens and Fraser emphasised this point, according to multiple cabinet ministers who were present.

Abbott and his Treasurer have failed to generate business confidence. Many in the Liberal party are looking to Turnbull to achieve what the Abbott government has not. To win the confidence of the community and the business community. Abbott's prime ministership is now mortally wounded. There is a strong chance that he will lose a ballot on Tuesday. But even if he doesn't, the damage of open party revolt has already been inflicted. "Once the leadership is in play, prime ministers ultimately cannot recover," says an Abbott minister who hopes he will succeed but is resigned to the likelihood that he will not. Follow us on Twitter