NSW election 2015: 9pc of voters still undecided, but leaning towards minor parties, Vote Compass finds

Updated

Undecided voters are leaning toward minor parties and education tops their concerns, data gathered by the ABC's Vote Compass indicates.

Of more than 60,200 people who used the tool, 9 per cent said they were still undecided on which party they would vote for on Saturday.

The highest number of undecided voters (13 per cent) were aged between 18 and 34, and more men had made up their minds than women.

They're not sure exactly what each side of government is going to do, they're not sure what the next four years is about. Mark Dunstan, Labor Party member

Undecided voters were given a list of 23 election issues and asked which was the most important to them.

Education was ranked first, followed by cost of living, asset sales and healthcare.

Economy was ranked sixth, whereas for decided voters it was the number one concern.

More than a third of undecided voters (37 per cent) said they were leaning toward minor parties.

At Sydney's Town Hall, the state's biggest pre-polling booth, party members handing out how-to-vote cards said they were targeting undecided voters.

Labor Party member Mark Dunstan said 10 to 15 per cent of people he encountered had not yet made up their minds.

"They're not sure exactly what each side of government is going to do, they're not sure what the next four years is about," he said.

Mr Dunstan said asset sales, health, education and coal seam gas projects were front of mind.

Education is a big one and the selling of the poles and wires - people are split down the middle. Narelle Skinner, Alex Greenwich supporter

Christian Democrats member Karl Schubert agreed, and said he was trying to educate people about their choices in the Upper House.

"I think a lot of people don't understand that voting number two or three is optional, they are in complete control. That's a message that hasn't gotten out there," Mr Schubert said.

Long time Liberal Party member Linde Jobling said she found most people had made up their minds and there was "strong support for the young Baird".

However, Narelle Skinner, a supporter of independent Sydney MP Alex Greenwich, said she had come across a number of undecided voters.

"It's surprising that people leave it so late to make up their mind," she said.

"Education is a big one and the selling of the poles and wires - people are split down the middle."

Recent Vote Compass data showed the Government's planned lease of the state's electricity assets remained unpopular and that voters had not changed their positions on the issue since the start of the election campaign.

Dr Kevin Brianton from La Trobe University has, in the past, worked on both sides of privatisation campaigns and said the pro-privatisation push had failed to reach swinging voters.

"Throwing facts and figures at people is mostly meaningless," he said.

"The anti-privatisation campaign has been much more cleverly crafted to deal with the emotions of the issue and it's the emotion rather than the practicality that attracts people."

However, Dr Lynne Chester, an energy researcher from Sydney University's Department of Political Economy, said the messages had not changed public perceptions of privatisation because they had been too simple.

"Simple message like higher prices or lower prices - it's doing the voting public a disservice," she said.

Dr Chester said the Premier's election commitment to lower network prices could deter potential investors.

"They're extraordinary marketing techniques to suggest that we're selling electricity businesses full of waste and inefficiencies," she said.

"They'll probably get less than the $13 billion of proceeds because of that very strong election commitment."

FAQ

What is this?

The ABC launched Vote Compass NSW on Sunday March 1 in the lead-up to the state election on March 28.

It is a tool that allows voters to see how their views compare to the parties' policies.

The data was weighted across a range of demographic factors using the latest population estimates to be a true representation of opinion at the time of the field.

The findings are based on 60,206 respondents to Vote Compass from March 2 to March 25, 2015.

Vote Compass is not a random sample. Why are the results being represented as though it is a poll?

Vote Compass is not a poll. It is fundamentally an educational tool intended to promote electoral literacy and stimulate public engagement in the policy aspect of election campaigns.

That said, respondents' views as expressed through Vote Compass can add a meaningful dimension to our understanding of public attitudes and an innovative new medium for self-expression.

Ensuring that the public has a decipherable voice in the affairs of government is a critical function of a robust democracy.

Online surveys are inherently prone to selection bias but statisticians have long been able to correct for this (given the availability of certain variables) by drawing on population estimates such as Census micro-data.

The ABC applies sophisticated weighting techniques to the data to control for the selection effects of the sample, enabling us to make statistical inferences about the Australian population with a high degree of confidence.

How can you stop people from trying to game the system?

There are multiple safeguards in place to ensure the authenticity of each record in the dataset.

Vote Compass does not make its protocols in this regard public so as not to aid those that might attempt to exploit the system, but among standard safeguards such as IP address logging and cookie tracking, it also uses time codes and a series of other measures to prevent users from gaming the system.

Topics: elections, states-and-territories, nsw, sydney-2000

First posted