David Cameron is planning to announce a dramatic expansion of the controversial free schools programme on Monday by proposing a further 153 free schools be opened in the next parliament, according to a draft of his speech passed to the Guardian.

The prime minister will also announce the names of 48 free schools to open in the summer of 2016 if the Conservatives are re-elected, as he demonstrates a determination not to slow down on probably the most disputed part of his party’s school reform programme.

According to the draft speech, Cameron will say: “Academies and free schools are most likely to be good or outstanding,” adding “free schools do not just help the performance of their pupils, but pupils in surrounding schools”.

David Cameron’s ​​government has spent £241 million on ​​free​schools in areas that already have enough school places Tristram Hunt

Labour and the Liberal Democrats claim free schools have been opened in middle-class areas where there is little proven need for extra school places and there have been questions about the quality of their governance, which may even have lowered standards in surrounding areas.

Free schools are non-profit-making, independent, state-funded schools run entirely outside the control of local authorities. More than 240 free schools were operating in 2014-15.

The speech is also notable for a change in tone on living standards, terrain that has been pursued by Ed Miliband, in which Cameron makes repeated admissions that times are tough and fragile for families, rather than boasts about a surge in incomes under the coalition.



The prime minister will say “for too long family budgets were attacked from every angle. Parents felt hammered at the till, ripped off at the petrol pump, robbed by the tax man. It felt like an all-out assault on family finances, and families were left with one thing – insecurity”.

David Cameron and Nicky Morgan visit a London school in February. Photograph: Yui Mok/PA

Significantly, the circulation list for the draft speech includes Michael Gove, the former education secretary who is now the party’s chief whip, but not Nicky Morgan, the current education secretary.

There have been repeated suggestions that Gove is still backseat-driving the Conservatives’ schools policy, even though he was asked to step aside in the last reshuffle. Gove was the architect of the free schools policy, but there is no suggestion Morgan disapproves of its thrust.

If you vote Conservative at least 153 [free schools] will open in the next parliament, providing 100,000 good places David Cameron

The circulation list also includes key communications figures in No10 as well as Jo Johnson, the Conservative MP charged with writing the party manifesto.

The shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt, said: “Instead of focusing on the need for more primary school places, David Cameron’s government has spent £241m on free schools in areas that already have enough school places. The result is a 200% increase in the number of infants taught in classes of more than 30.”



However, a report from the centre-right thinktank Policy Exchange on Monday is expected to challenge the idea that free schools are wasting resources, and is intended to give Cameron the research support to press ahead with the reforms.

The commitment to a continued free schools programme is part of Cameron’s planned build up to the budget on 18 March, in which he promises will give security to families at every stage of their lives.



In the speech, Cameron claims free schools do not just raise the performance of their own pupils but pupils in surrounding schools, saying he wants to give them the freedom to excel.

Adding he is “declaring war on illiteracy and innumeracy”, he promises: “We are going to dramatically expand the free schools programme ... Today, I am announcing 48 new ones and I am saying that if you vote Conservative at least 153 will open in the next parliament, providing 100,000 good school places.”

Cameron is due to make his announcement at a free school in London that he believes has been a model of the type of school he supports. The Guardian is not disclosing the school’s name for security reasons.

The prime minister also attempts in the draft of the speech to dispel the public’s perception of his privileged background by disclosing his daughter Nancy is happy because she is going with her best friend to a good secondary state school in London.

Cameron is due to tell his audience that his motto in life is “families first”, and says, at their best, families are resilient, tight-knit units that can weather anything.



Insisting “everything comes back to families’ need for security”, he will say: “That is why next week’s budget is built for, designed around and centred on Britain’s families. For the mum who is up and out the door before 6am. The dad who gets home from work when everyone is fast asleep. The children who are holding out for a holiday at the seaside this year.”

He will claim the five foundation stones of family security are job, money, home ownership, education and savings, before reiterating previous aspirations to increase the personal tax allowance to £12,500. That would represent a tax cut for 30 million people that takes everyone on the minimum wage working 30 hours a week out of income tax altogether. He also reiterates a promise to raise the 40p income tax threshold to £50,000 as part of a plan to put more money in children’s pockets.

The Policy Exchange analysis is expected to compare neighbouring, similar schools within the same local authority to the mainstream primary and secondary free schools open so far. It uses increases in the primary and secondary headline measures of pupil achievement after a free school is announced or opened as the metrics for comparison.