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In the afterglow of an election, we like to talk about the moment the campaign turned. In Ontario, it was when Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak announced he would cut 100,000 jobs from the public sector. In Quebec, it was likely when then-star candidate for the Parti Québécois, Pierre Karl Péladeau, pumped his fist and proclaimed the election would be about Quebec sovereignty, once and for all. Sometimes there are multiple moments, like in Alberta when then-Wildrose leader Danielle Smith stunned the province by crossing the floor to the Conservatives, and also when NDP leader Rachel Notley handily swept the floor with her opponents during the leadership debate.

On October 20, there will much discussion about the supposed turning point during Canada’s 42nd election. With the latest Nanos poll showing the Conservatives seven points behind the Liberals, some pundits have already attributed Stephen Harper’s anticipated defeat to the attention on the niqab, which has at once alienated many right-of-centre-swing voters from the Tories, while at the same time plucking support away from the NDP in Quebec, which had tempered Liberal growth. Others have pegged it to Justin Trudeau’s capable performance during the debates, which exceeded public expectation perhaps only because the Conservatives had set the bar so low. For the better part of a year, Tory puffery — combined with the odd Trudeau gaffe — had the public believing the Liberal leader was essentially a lightweight who won the sperm lottery. That perception might still be there to some degree, mind you, but Trudeau has certainly shown he’s more than the daffy drama teacher portrayed in early Conservative ads.