17:04

At PMQs Theresa May firmed up her opposition to allowing Scotland to hold a second independence referendum. (To hold a proper, legally valid referendum, Edinburgh needs permission from London.) When Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, called in 2017 for a second independence referendum, May brushed this aside with the response: “Now is not the time.”

This afternoon, in response to a question from the Scottish Conservative Stephen Kerr, May seemed to rule one out for good. She told MPs:

The last thing we want is a second independence referendum. The United Kingdom should be pulling together, and should not be being driven apart.

Sturgeon has responded firmly. In a statement issued ahead of her meeting with May at Number 10 this afternoon, she said:

Theresa May fears she would lose an independence referendum and is clearly running scared of the verdict of the Scottish people - who must be sick and tired of being told what the prime minister wants Frankly, what Scotland needs is much more important than what the prime minister wants. On a daily basis, Brexit is illustrating this fundamental point - Scotland needs the power to take our own decisions. That’s the only way to stop Tory ideologues driving us to disaster and Westminster governments imposing polices we didn’t vote for. The mandate to give the people of Scotland a choice over their future is cast-iron. A majority of MSPs and Scottish MPs returned at the last two general elections support holding an independence referendum in the circumstances in which we now find ourselves.

This is a far stronger statement of intent than even the comments that Sturgeon made in advance of her trip to London, when she said that “we have the right to consider other options for our future, including independence.”

It’s worth remembering that Sturgeon must balance not only the demands of this Brexit endgame but also calls within her own party for a clearer signal about her referendum plans.

The SNP MP and prominent People’s Vote supporter Joanna Cherry has been tweeting today about the possibility of holding a second independence referendum during the transition period.

Joanna Cherry QC MP (@joannaccherry) If there’s a #Brexit deal, during the transition period Scotland will require to decide whether our social, political & economic future lies within a market of 500 million or 60 million & in a union of equal partners or unequal partners #nobrainer #indyref2

In contrast to Cherry, yesterday the long-serving SNP MP Angus Brendan MacNeil called on Sturgeon to drop support for a second EU referendum and instead put the case for a fresh vote on Scottish independence to the “fore”, as did Alex Neil, the former SNP health secretary and Brexiteer, last week.

Also this week, former justice secretary Kenny MacAskill yesterday called for Sturgeon’s husband, the SNP chief executive Peter Murrell, to “move on” from his position in order to avoid the impression that he was shielding his wife from criticism over her handling of the Alex Salmond sexual harassment investigation.

Some paint these critics as elder statesman figures speaking for others who are reluctant to voice their concerns about party strategy in public because of their own, more active positions; others point out that these older, white, male voices represent a particular constituency within the party but do not reach beyond that. Nor is it clear what influence, if any, these voices have on Sturgeon’s thinking.



Meanwhile, activists within the SNP and across the wider yes movement are split, with some demanding that Sturgeon use her mandate immediately and others urging caution, particularly given the lack of dramatic movement in the polls. Will the waiting be over soon? Sturgeon finally pledged last week to set out her plans for a second independence referendum “in the coming weeks” even if article 50 is extended.