In a new television commercial for Nando's, a popular fast food chain, Evita Bezuidenhout, a kind of South African Dame Edna – but with more political bite – riffed on the changes in the country's politics. Bezuidenhout was "disappointed" to find only two similar sounding meal options for the same price, then deadpanned: "Why just A and C. What about option B? You know we all know you can't just have A and C."

Bezuidenhout's wish is coming true today as the Congress of the People, an opposition party born out of the upheavals in the ruling African National Congress in the last year or so, is officially launched in Bloemfontein, one of the country's nine provincial capitals.

The leaders of Cope, as the new party is already known, are high-level ANC dissidents unhappy with the forced resignation of Thabo Mbeki as the country's president in August and the ascendance of the ANC's trade union and Communist party allies. They are especially riled by the leadership of Jacob Zuma, the current ANC president (he unseated Mbeki for that post in December 2007) who is widely expected to become South Africa's next president when elections roll around in April or May 2009. Zuma is associated with corruption and ethic and moral lapses.

There is no reliable poll data yet on Cope's strength, but what most observers of post-apartheid South African politics note is that dissatisfaction with the ANC among the majority of South Africans (largely black and poor) is at an all-time high. Whether that will translate into substantial support for a new opposition party (with a not-so-new cast of characters), a drop in voter participation or something else is anyone's guess. That South African politics won't look the same after 2009 is for sure.

The results of last week's special byelections to fill vacant seats left empty by resignations or expulsions of councillors in the wake of the split in the ANC may provide some clues about voter choices. Though turnout was down (ranging between a high of 23% and a low of 8%), the results were interesting. Though a few byelections were held elsewhere in the country, the contest was largely confined to the Western Cape province, where 27 local government seats were up for grabs. Here Cope took 10 seats in its first run at electoral offices. The Democratic Alliance (DA), a party associated with white "liberalism", which controls the city of Cape Town (in coalition with smaller parties), took nine seats. The balance of seats were shared among the Independent Democrats – a party led by Patricia de Lille, a former Pan-Africanist Congress leader – and a number of other smaller parties.

It is true that the results should be approached with caution. Outside the Western Cape, the ANC comfortably held onto seats in KwaZulu-Natal (three seats, where in one instance the Inkatha Freedom party of Chief Gatsha Buthelezi narrowly beaten), Gauteng (two seats), Free State (two) and Northern Cape (one seat). But the byelections represent significant victories for Cope, a party with little campaign machinery in place that was formally launched only after those byelections.

The ANC may point out that it has historically been weak in the Western Cape (in the short history of democratic elections) due to the province's ethnic make up and the history of white and coloured racism. So the results may not be a surprise. The results may also be skewed since 12 of its candidates were barred from running because of late registrations with the electoral commission.

But a closer look at the Western Cape results, as a local newspaper reports, indicates interesting voter swings. The DA, a party usually associated with the white suburbs and growing voter support among the province's coloured majority, took four wards from the ANC in head-to-head contests with the ruling party and another five seats in traditional ANC strongholds. (The DA, incidentally, may still be swallowed by Cope's emergence as a viable opposition party to the ANC's dominance, especially among the white minority.)

As the events of the last two years in South Africa have proven, five months is a long time in South African politics. But my sense today is that the ANC will probably emerge victorious in 2009's general elections, though with a substantially reduced majority. Many of the ANC's problems are self-inflicted, but Cope will be the main reason for that decline. The ANC's reputation as custodians of democracy and freedom has been tarnished by the events of the last four years or so.

Cope has problems of its own. Most significantly, it is hamstrung by its perceived link to Mbeki, the perception that it is the party of the black "middle class" as opposed to representing the interests of South Africa's poor. Most observers still complain that Cope does not have any clear policies and that its main difference with the ANC is its demand that the country's president be elected directly (currently, the majority party gets to do that). Its support also has an ethnic edge to it.

Cope may triumph in a few provinces (two for sure; some predict that if the Eastern Cape goes to Cope they would probably govern through a coalition with the DA in the Western Cape, currently controlled by the ANC). The ANC is expected to hold onto KwaZulu-Natal (Zuma's home base) and will probably secure the Northern Cape. A number of provinces will be highly contested: Gauteng (Cope co-leader Sam Shilowa used to govern the province) and the Free State are key among these.

The common sense logic on South African politics was that when the ANC would break, it would do so along ideological lines. That has not happened. What South Africans are getting at least is something not even envisaged until now: a competitive two-party system.