The number of designated at-risk neighbourhoods in Toronto is set to climb, meaning money and resources could soon be on the way for tens of thousands of residents living in low-income areas with few job prospects, high dropout rates and a disproportionate number of health issues.

There are currently 22 “priority” neighbourhoods in Toronto. If city staff have their way, there will soon be 31, the Star has learned.

In previous years, these vulnerable communities have been identified using some socio-economic indicators, proximity to services and the number of annual homicides. Under a new framework, neighbourhoods are assessed on 15 criteria, including the rate of diabetes, voter turnout and income level. Once an area is given “priority” status, public and private dollars are funnelled to the region.

The request from staff will be made public Monday and go to committee on March 17. From there, city council will debate the politically fraught item in April.

Some councillors may not like the label of having priority neighbourhoods in their wards. Others could be upset they aren’t getting funding. And then there will be the old ideological divide about whether municipal government should bankroll social programs. If approved, it would mark a significant moment for this term of council.

Three years ago, with the election of Rob Ford and a notably more right-leaning cast of elected officials, the fate of the program looked ominous.

Towards the end of the 2010 election, Ford openly mused about cancelling the initiative. It didn’t help that the project was set up in a way that made it difficult to quantify success and measure cost.

“We all know what was happening in 2005 and we needed to act. We came up with a good strategy that could have immediate impact,” said Chris Brillinger, the executive director of social development, finance and administration.

Brillinger is referring to Toronto’s so-called summer of the gun. By year’s end, 79 people had been killed, including 15-year-old Jane Creba, who was shot dead just steps north of the Toronto Eaton Centre on Boxing Day.

It was in the midst of that mayhem that city council passed a groundbreaking strategy to deal with crime: addressing poverty. Anecdotally, the plan seemed to work. But, as Brillinger concedes, it was impossible to actually measure success with actual data. The framework wasn’t set up that way.

Toronto’s priority neighbourhood program 2.0 — now called Neighbourhood Improvement Areas — addresses this shortcoming.

A team of researchers spent a year identifying 15 benchmarks of healthy communities in five areas: economic opportunities, social development, participating in decision making, healthy lives and physical surroundings.

Each of Toronto’s identified 140 neighbourhoods is now measured against a set list of criteria. If an area falls below the line, it becomes an NIA. The return on investment can then be measured year over year. Did the rate of diabetes drop? Are fewer people on social assistance? Is there more green space?

The 15 benchmarks were developed as part of the recently launched Urban HEART tool, which was adapted for use in Toronto by the Centre for Research on Inner City Health at St. Michael’s Hospital.

Of the original 22 neighbourhoods, which are often reported as 13 because several are clumped together, seven no longer qualify. Sixteen new areas will be added.

“I don’t want people to look at our analysis and say those neighbourhoods are doing worse than they were in 2005. That’s not true. This is an apples to oranges situation,” Brillinger said.

Part of the problem with the first iteration is that back in 2005, there was less data available, said Denise Andrea Campbell, the director of community resources.

“There’s been tremendous development in data systems across the country,” she said. And not just in quantity but quality. In choosing the 15 indicators, it was important to focus on numbers that would be collected in the same way year over year, she said.

“That way you can track it.”

When the proposal comes to council for a vote, money won’t be part of the equation — yet. Initially city council made a $13-million capital investment in the priority neighbourhoods initiative, which was leveraged into more than $40 million in additional funding. Council recently earmarked about $12 million more, which will start flowing in 2015, said Brillinger.

But the actual cost of the project is dramatically more than that, although difficult to nail down. The initiative was designed in a way to use existing city resources.

Budgeted funding and staff set aside for school programs, community projects, employment initiatives and new buildings were steered towards target neighbourhoods — not necessarily at the expense of others; they were just added to the general workflow.

“It was designed that way,” said Brillinger, so that it wasn’t reliant on one-time funding.

Councillor John Parker, whose ward will likely be getting one of the new NIAs, is hopeful it will pass council.

“I appreciate the change in approach,” he said after being briefed by Brillinger. “I would hope that the inherent logic of it — measuring what’s actually happening — would be evident. Even to my colleagues.”





QUICK FACTS:

Urban HEART — the 15 criteria used to measure healthy neighbourhoods.

Economic Opportunities

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Unemployment

Low income

Social assistance

Social Development

High school graduation

Marginalization

Post-secondary completion

Participating in Decision Making

Municipal voting rate

Healthy lives

Premature mortality

Mental health

Preventable hospitalizations

Diabetes

Physical surroundings

Community places for meeting

Walk score

Healthy food stores

Green space