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What if the economy is not so strong as all that, come election time?

Even more revealing was Trudeau’s attempt to answer Solomon’s question on the deficit: by continuing to run $19-billion deficits in a strong economy, was he not leaving the government’s fiscal position exposed in the event the economy turned south?

“That’s not true,” he said, first citing the country’s triple-A rating with the credit agencies, then suggesting that, whatever level the debt might climb to, Canadians would “do better” for having more transit or flood infrastructure. Or something.

All in all, the interviews left the impression of a prime minister, and a government, that saw no reason for any major course corrections. This is, on the face of it, understandable. True, the Liberals are performing surprisingly weakly in the polls, given the state of the economy — just three points ahead of the opposition Conservatives, on average — but the party could be forgiven for believing the now-seasoned Trudeau will best the Conservatives’ Andrew Scheer in the campaign.

But this leaves to one side a rather important wildcard: what if the economy is not so strong as all that, come election time? Just as Liberal fiscal policy is essentially premised on the abolition of the business cycle, so Liberal election strategy would appear to boil down to this: sit tight, and hope there’s no recession.

Perhaps that’s all they can do. The economy is not the only factor in elections, but it’s a pretty decisive one: governing parties sometimes manage to lose even when the economy is expanding, but they almost never win when it’s contracting. And the risk factors for a recession, 10 years after the last, are piling up — as stock markets have been loudly pointing out for months. The S&P 500, for example, is down 13 per cent since September.