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Jim Schwartz is 28-49 in five years as Lions coach, and it's looking increasingly likely he won't get a shot at a sixth year. (Mike Mulholland | MLive.com)

DETROIT -- Jonte Green couldn't look. He didn't have the heart, or maybe the stomach.

He stared at teammate Mikel Leshoure as Baltimore's Justin Tucker lined up a 61-yard field goal that would decidedly change the course of the Detroit Lions organization.

Green didn't even have to look to know which way that pendulum swung.

"Damn, he made it," Leshoure told Green in disbelief. "I can't believe it."

Tucker's field goal snuck over the crossbar and sealed Detroit's 18-16 loss against the Ravens in perhaps the biggest game of Ford Field's brief history. It is now probable the Lions (7-7) will not make the postseason despite a 6-3 start in the NFL's worst division.

And that makes it probable that Jim Schwartz is fired.

Detroit has flushed its division lead down the toilet. It doesn't even control its destiny over Chicago (8-6), which it swept. Green Bay (7-6-1) has surpassed the Lions as well, despite a winless November.

The Lions need a loss from either Chicago or Green Bay next week just to stay alive into Week 17. So the finger-crossing begins.

"We weren't proactive when we had the (division) lead," center Dominic Raiola said, "and I'm sure there's a lot of happy homes in Green Bay and Chicago right now."

Detroit has left its fortune to fate, and there's none to blame but the men in blue.

They had too many drops (three), too many picks (three) and too many turnovers to beat Baltimore, despite a sterling performance from the defense. And that's a snapshot of Detroit's overall direction under Schwartz.

The Lions have dropped the most passes, thrown the most picks and committed the most turnovers in the NFL over the past five games. And they lost four times, losing their hold on the division.

These problems have become systemic and are what is holding back Detroit. Not a blown call (though there were a few against Baltimore), or a missed pass interference on Kris Durham, or a 61-yard field goal that jimmied its way over the crossbar.

It's what has plagued this organization for much of Schwartz's five-year tenure, and why his job is jeopardized. Not because of a single loss, but a two-year collection of losses for many of the same reasons, and no evidence a solution is on the horizon.

Barring a 2-0 finish and some help around the division -- hey, this is the NFC North after all -- Detroit will have no choice but to move on from Schwartz.

Lions safety Louis Delmas fails to tackle Ravens receiver Jacoby Jones during Monday night's loss against Baltimore.

"The only assurance we need is we've got two games to play and we're one down in our division," Schwartz said after the game when asked about his uncertain job status. "That's the only thing we need to worry about. That's the only thing that we need to concern ourselves with right now."

There's a whole lot more to it than that, starting with the stunted growth of his franchise quarterback.

Matthew Stafford has floundered in the past month, including completing just 18-of-34 passes for 235 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions against Baltimore. Two of the picks were side-arm heaves, one of which was inexplicably tossed right into Daryl Smith's torso.

The final pick came after Tucker's 61-yard field goal. Detroit had all three timeouts and a half-minute to work with, but Stafford missed Nate Burleson on the first play of the series and was picked off by rookie safety Matt Elam.

The game was over, and fittingly so. Stafford has 13 picks in his last seven games. Hard to win much that way, and it's fair to wonder whether he needs new coaching to develop into the franchise quarterback Detroit continues to believe him to be.

He's playing some of the worst football of his career, and it could be argued this was the most disappointing game of his career, given the stage and stakes and his thoroughly erratic play throughout the night.

Lions receiver Kris Durham is overthrown in the end zone by Matthew Stafford during Monday's loss.

"I didn't play my best game, by any means,'' Stafford said. "I thought we had a good opening drive. We put seven on the board and, for one reason or another, the rest of that half and even into the third quarter some it was tough for us to get a rhythm. That's a top-five defense.''

Baltimore is ninth defensively, to be exact.

At any rate, Detroit is third in offense and should be able to beat a team -- any team -- that is held without a touchdown.

But the Lions continue to lose to teams of equal or lesser talent, and they do it through self-inflicted mistakes. That falls on the coach.

Schwartz deserves credit for taking over after that 0-16 season and restoring respectability. The run to the playoffs in 2011 was a surprise, and suggested Detroit was headed in the right direction after years of futility.

But the Lions regressed in 2012, losing their final eight games and finishing 4-12 in a season that was marred with many of the same mistakes that now encumber them.

Detroit is 7-7 this year, despite immense talent, a favorable schedule and the worst division in the NFL.

If it can't win the division this year, with everything swinging its way, when can it under this regime?