Guest column by Kevin Kolbe

Welcome back to Quarterbacks and Salary, where every year I try to get a little bit closer to figuring out just how much the various quarterbacks around the league are worth relative to each other. We are now on Year 4. The goal of this yearly series is to develop a formula to accurately gauge a quarterback's worth. This will be done by comparing yearly cap hits to statistical performance, using TANY/A (Total Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt) and then by adjusting that base amount according to each player's importance to his offense as measured by plays per game (PPG). The final result is deemed a player's PAYD (Pay by Average Yards and Demand). I first wrote about the subject in July of 2015; you can read that piece for a detailed explanation of my methodology.

I made some pretty significant changes to the methodology this year, but before I describe the actual changes that were made, I want to talk about Peyton Manning's 2013 season. In his second season in Denver, Manning had 709 plays resulting in 5,326 yards, 56 touchdowns, and only 10 interceptions. It was a wonderful, record-breaking season, and PAYD agreed, arriving at a value of $27.1 million. At the time, I was delighted. It was the highest PAYD value any quarterback had received, even though real-life cap hits have increased significantly since then. It was a truly impressive amount—but had Peyton been just a bit more efficient, that value would have plummeted.

The way PAYD was initially designed was to award the best quarterback (in terms of per-play efficiency) the highest cap hit in that season and use that passer's TANY/A and PPG as the standard by which all other quarterbacks that season are evaluated. This meant that the only way to have PAYD exceed a real-life cap hit was to be the top quarterback and be on the first four years of NFL play, or be slightly less efficient than the leader and have a lot more plays per game. In 2013, Peyton Manning, despite a record-setting year, was only the second-most efficient qualifying quarterback. The top quarterback was Nick Foles, with a TANY/A of 8.36. (Mildly interesting fact: in 2015, Peyton Manning would go on to be the second-least efficient qualifying quarterback, with Nick Foles at the bottom, flipping their 2013 results.)

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Even separate from that year, there was too much variation in year-to-year PAYD, as the efficiency of the top quarterback, rather than the performance of the league as a whole, set the bar. In 2016, Dak Prescott had an amazing season with a TANY/A of 8.11, third-best that seeason. The previous year, it would have been first by more than half a yard per play. In addition, the top cap hit was all over the place, and nearly became even more volatile. If Peyton Manning's hypothetically improved 2013 was a sign that I needed a new standard for TANY/A, then Joe Flacco's hypothetical 2016 and 2017 were signs that taking the top cap hit wouldn't hold up. Until a restructure, Flacco was slated for cap hits of $28.55 million and $31.15 million over the past two seasons, exceeding the next-highest values by $5.5 million per year, which would have heavily inflated PAYD for high-performing quarterbacks those years.

To address those issues, I made two changes. First, I set a TANY/A mark I could use to compare all quarterbacks, rather than have one quarterback each year set the standard. To determine this mark, I took the 90th percentile of all quarterback-seasons from 2012 to 2016, which was 7.26. I then adjusted that number in each season based on league passing efficiency. This allowed a compromise for comparing quarterbacks playing in different seasons, while also heavily mitigating volatility from year to year. This lowered the year-to-year change in TANY/A standard from 1.01 adjusted net yards per attempt to 0.39. However, it also lowered the bar every quarterback was measured against. In addition, I compared each quarterback to the average number of plays per game for that season's qualifying passers rather than the top quarterback.

The second change I made was to use the third-highest cap hit from each season rather than the top one. This change, thus far, has resulted in values a bit more comparable in terms of cap changes. Under the old system, the top hit in 2013 was $20.9 million. In 2014, it went down to $20.4 million, despite the salary cap being $10 million higher. I can't say I am thrilled with the new method, as it still doesn't scale exactly with the cap. I considered using a percentage of the cap to set a base value, but that would have left me high and dry once I went back to calculate seasons with no salary cap. It's a shame, because transitioning away from raw dollar figures and into cap percentage had been one of my goals for this year.

The results were, on average, very similar. From 2012 through 2016, the average quarterback's value dropped by $0.12 million per season in the new methodology, though 2015 and 2016 saw significant adjustments. In 2015, the leading quarterback had been Carson Palmer with a TANY/A of 7.59, but he had a below-average PPG, making him too low a bar to which other quarterbacks could be compared. The average quarterback that year lost $3.67 million by moving to the new system. Considering that the old method had produced four quarterbacks with a PAYD higher than the highest cap hit (all of whom were outside the top 10 percent of efficiency), I think that change was a positive one in terms of accuracy. In 2016, the average quarterback gained $2.79 million with the new method, since they were no longer being compared to the highest efficiency mark by a considerable margin.

The two biggest single-season changes both involved Matt Ryan. His 2015 value fell by $6.2 million in the new system, while his 2016 value jumped back up by $5.6 million.

With that out of the way, let's look at the most recent season. Alex Smith led the pack in 2017 with a TANY/A of 7.43 (1.12 lower than the previous season's leader, Matt Ryan). He didn't, however, finish with the highest PAYD. Carson Wentz's rookie adjustment brought his PAYD to $27.7 million, $0.4 million above that of Smith's. The lowest PAYD value went to Brett Hundley with $3.6 million, which is the highest mark that the lowest player has earned. This is due to a combination of the league having a poor year for efficiency and all of the least efficient players benefitting from a rookie adjustment.

Quarterbacks and PAYD, 2017 Player Team Games PPG TANY/A Base Value Rookie-Adjusted

Base Value PAYD Cap Hit PAYD-Cap A.Smith KC 15.0 40.0 7.43 $26.1 $26.1 $27.3 $16.9 $10.4 D.Brees NO 16.0 39.4 7.18 $24.3 $24.3 $24.7 $19.0 $5.7 J.Goff* LAR 14.7 36.1 7.11 $23.9 $26.2 $22.1 $6.3 $15.8 P.Rivers LAC 15.6 39.2 7.08 $23.6 $23.6 $23.7 $18.0 $5.7 T.Brady NE 15.8 40.6 7.06 $23.5 $23.5 $25.3 $14.0 $11.3 C.Keenum MIN 14.3 38.0 6.80 $21.7 $21.7 $20.5 $1.9 $18.6 C.Wentz* PHI 12.5 42.6 6.72 $21.2 $23.5 $27.7 $6.1 $21.6 B.Roethlisberger PIT 14.9 40.9 6.59 $20.3 $20.3 $22.2 $18.2 $4.0 M.Ryan ATL 16.0 36.6 6.58 $20.2 $20.2 $17.6 $23.8 $(6.2) M.Stafford DET 15.9 40.3 6.46 $19.4 $19.4 $20.6 $16.5 $4.1 R.Wilson SEA 16.0 43.2 6.04 $16.5 $16.5 $20.0 $14.6 $5.4 J.Winston* TB 11.9 42.7 5.90 $15.5 $17.9 $21.2 $6.9 $14.3 B.Bortles* JAX 15.8 38.2 5.89 $15.5 $17.8 $17.0 $6.6 $10.4 D.Prescott DAL 15.9 36.4 5.84 $15.1 $15.1 $13.0 $0.6 $12.4 K.Cousins WAS 16.0 39.4 5.83 $15.0 $15.0 $15.2 $23.9 $(8.7) Player Team Games PPG TANY/A Base Value Rookie-Adjusted

Base Value PAYD Cap Hit PAYD-Cap D.Carr* OAK 14.7 38.0 5.62 $13.6 $15.9 $15.0 $15.7 $(0.7) M.Mariota* TEN 14.6 37.0 5.58 $13.3 $15.6 $13.9 $6.6 $7.3 T.Taylor BUF 14.1 38.3 5.56 $13.2 $13.2 $12.6 $9.7 $2.9 J.McCown NYJ 12.3 38.0 5.48 $12.6 $12.6 $12.0 $6.5 $5.5 A.Dalton CIN 16.0 35.8 5.29 $11.3 $11.3 $9.4 $15.7 $(6.3) C.Newton CAR 15.8 41.9 5.21 $10.8 $10.8 $12.3 $20.2 $(7.9) J.Brissett* IND 15.2 38.4 4.96 $9.0 $11.4 $11.0 $0.6 $10.4 M.Trubisky* CHI 12.0 33.5 4.69 $7.1 $9.5 $6.8 $5.3 $1.5 E.Manning NYG 15.0 40.9 4.68 $7.1 $7.1 $7.7 $19.7 $(12.0) J.Cutler MIA 12.3 38.0 4.61 $6.6 $6.6 $6.3 $10.0 $(3.7) J.Flacco BAL 15.2 39.5 4.41 $5.2 $5.2 $5.3 $24.6 $(19.3) T.Siemian* DEN 9.8 42.1 4.14 $3.3 $5.7 $6.6 $0.6 $6.0 B.Hundley* GB 10.6 35.9 3.93 $1.9 $4.3 $3.6 $0.7 $2.9 D.Kizer* CLE 13.5 43.8 3.75 $0.6 $3.0 $3.7 $0.9 $2.8 * Base value adjusted for players still on their rookie contracts.



Minimum eight games played.

And here is the updated career PAYD-Cap differential. In addition to changing the methodology, all 2012 quarterbacks had their numbers change because I had incorrectly inputted Eli Manning's contract value as $20.9 million (his 2013 value) instead of his actual value of $9.6 million. While that significantly decreased his "deficit" (and lowered the PAYD of all 2012 quarterbacks), he is still the worst value by PAYD over the last six years, though Joe Flacco is closing the gap.

Quarterbacks Ranked by Average PAYD, 2012-2017 Player 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average J.Goff*









$22.1 $22.1 D.Brees $20.5 $21.3 $16.8 $19.9 $24.9 $24.7 $21.4 T.Brady $21.5 $9.7 $15.4 $20.1 $29.3 $25.3 $20.2 A.Rodgers $18.1 $20.2 $21.8 $11.0 $24.8

$19.2 D.Prescott*







$22.7 $13.0 $17.9 A.Luck* $15.0 $14.2 $22.4

$19.8

$17.9 B.Roethlisberger $14.5 $10.3 $19.8 $18.9 $18.8 $22.2 $17.4 K.Cousins*





$15.2 $21.5 $15.2 $17.3 C.Wentz*







$6.4 $27.7 $17.1 P.Manning $18.9 $30.1 $18.1 $1.1



$17.1 M.Ryan $18.4 $9.7 $16.5 $10.1 $29.8 $17.6 $17.0 M.Stafford $19.2 $11.5 $11.7 $13.3 $17.7 $20.6 $15.7 J.Winston*





$12.4 $12.2 $21.2 $15.3 R.Wilson* $11.1 $11.3 $14.7 $18.7 $15.4 $20.0 $15.2 P.Rivers $6.8 $16.6 $11.8 $14.8 $12.4 $23.7 $14.4 M.Mariota*





$11.4 $17.1 $13.9 $14.1 T.Romo $16.2 $11.6 $12.9





$13.6 D.Carr*



$5.6 $12.2 $21.3 $15.0 $13.5 C.Keenum







$6.3 $20.5 $13.4 N.Foles*

$24.8

$1.7



$13.3 Player 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average A.Smith $9.3 $9.8 $9.6 $10.7 $12.7 $27.3 $13.2 R.Griffin* $16.1 $9.6







$12.9 J.Freeman* $12.8









$12.8 C.Newton* $16.6 $10.5 $9.9 $17.2 $9.6 $12.3 $12.7 A.Dalton* $11.3 $13.3 $9.9 $16.3 $14.5 $9.4 $12.5 C.Palmer $13.9 $6.3

$18.1 $11.5

$12.5 T.Taylor





$11.5 $13.2 $12.6 $12.4 J.Brissett*









$11.0 $11.0 M.Vick $10.6









$10.6 J.Locker* $10.2









$10.2 T.Siemian*







$13.3 $6.6 $10.0 B.Hoyer



$8.2 $11.4



$9.8 S.Bradford* $9.5



$6.1 $13.1

$9.6 E.Manning $11.7 $0.5 $13.7 $13.1 $9.6 $7.7 $9.4 R.Tannehill* $8.6 $6.8 $12.7 $10.3 $8.3

$9.3 B.Bortles*



$2.9 $13.0 $12.0

$9.3 K.Orton



$9.0





$9.0 C.Kaepernick*

$10.1 $10.0 $3.3 $11.1

$8.6 B.Weeden* $8.5









$8.5 J.Cutler $7.0 $9.5 $8.3 $11.0

$6.3 $8.4 Player 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average R.Fitzpatrick $8.0 $7.1 $9.7 $13.1 $2.3

$8.0 J.Flacco $11.7 $1.0 $11.4 $8.4 $9.9 $5.3 $8.0 B.Gabbert* $7.0



$8.6



$7.8 T.Bridgewater*



$8.7 $6.2



$7.5 C.Ponder* $7.1









$7.1 M.Schaub $11.5 $2.3







$6.9 N.Sanchez* $3.3

$10.3





$6.8 M.Trubisky*









$6.8 $6.8 J.McCown



$0.8



$12.0 $6.4 M.Cassel $4.1









$4.1 G.Smith*

$1.9 $5.6





$3.8 D.Kizer*









$3.7 $3.7 E.Manuel*

$3.7







$3.7 C.Henne

$3.6







$3.6 B.Hundley









$3.6 $3.6 M.Glennon*

$3.3







$3.3 K.Clemens

$1.2







$1.2 B.Osweiler*







$0.6

$0.6 * At least one season on rookie contract.

Quarterbacks Ranked by Total Difference Between PAYD and Cap Hit, 2012-2017 Player 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Dif R.Wilson* $10.6 $10.6 $13.9 $11.6 $(3.1) $5.4 $49.0 A.Luck* $11.0 $9.2 $16.4

$1.4

$38.0 T.Brady $7.7 $(4.1) $0.6 $6.1 $15.5 $11.3 $37.1 D.Carr*



$4.6 $11.0 $19.8 $(0.7) $34.7 D.Prescott*







$22.2 $12.4 $34.6 J.Winston*





$7.8 $6.4 $14.3 $28.5 M.Mariota*





$7.0 $11.6 $7.3 $25.9 A.Dalton* $10.1 $11.9 $0.8 $6.7 $1.4 $(6.3) $24.6 B.Bortles*



$(0.9) $8.3 $6.4 $10.4 $24.2 C.Wentz*







$1.5 $21.6 $23.1 N.Foles*

$24.1

$(2.3)



$21.8 R.Tannehill* $6.3 $3.9 $9.2 $5.4 $(3.3)

$21.5 C.Keenum







$2.7 $18.6 $21.3 A.Rodgers $9.6 $8.5 $4.2 $(7.3) $5.5

$20.5 T.Taylor





$10.6 $6.3 $2.9 $19.8 T.Siemian*







$12.8 $6.0 $18.8 R.Griffin* $12.3 $4.8







$17.1 C.Palmer $9.9 $2.3

$10.7 $(6.9)

$16.0 J.Goff*









$15.8 $15.8 D.Brees $3.1 $3.9 $(1.6) $(3.9) $7.6 $5.7 $14.8 Player 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Dif R.Fitzpatrick $2.0 $4.7 $6.3 $9.8 $(9.7)

$13.1 B.Hoyer



$6.9 $6.2



$13.1 T.Bridgewater*



$7.5 $4.6



$12.1 J.Freeman* $11.5









$11.5 B.Gabbert* $4.3



$6.8



$11.1 J.Brissett









$10.4 $10.4 K.Cousins*





$14.5 $1.5 $(8.7) $7.3 J.Locker* $7.3









$7.3 B.Weeden* $7.0









$7.0 A.Smith

$1.3 $5.0 $(4.9) $(5.1) $10.4 $6.7 G.Smith*

$1.0 $4.5





$5.5 C.Newton* $11.6 $4.5 $2.9 $4.2 $(9.9) $(7.9) $5.4 T.Romo $4.4 $(0.2) $1.1





$5.3 K.Orton



$5.0





$5.0 C.Ponder* $4.8









$4.8 B.Roethlisberger $5.6 $(3.3) $0.9 $1.7 $(5.2) $4.0 $3.7 B.Hundley









$2.9 $2.9 D.Kizer*









$2.8 $2.8 M.Glennon*

$2.7







$2.7 E.Manuel*

$2.1







$2.1 Player 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Dif M.Trubisky*









$1.5 $1.5 J.McCown



$(4.0)



$5.5 $1.5 K.Clemens

$0.6







$0.6 M.Cassel $0.4









$0.4 C.Henne

$(1.1)







$(1.1) M.Sanchez* $(9.6)

$8.0





$(1.6) M.Ryan $8.8 $0.1 $(1.0) $(9.4) $6.0 $(6.2) $(1.7) P.Manning $1.4 $12.6 $0.6 $(16.4)



$(1.8) C.Kaepernick*

$8.7 $6.2 $(12.0) $(5.7)

$(2.8) M.Vick $(3.3)









$(3.3) S.Bradford* $(3.1)



$(6.9) $6.1

$(3.9) M.Schaub $0.7 $(8.5)







$(7.8) B.Osweiler







$(11.4)

$(11.4) M.Stafford $1.4 $(6.3) $(4.1) $(4.4) $(4.8) $4.1 $(14.1) P.Rivers $(8.5) $2.8 $(4.9) $(6.4) $(4.1) $5.7 $(15.4) J.Cutler $(2.6) $(0.9) $(10.2) $(5.5)

$(3.7) $(22.9) J.Flacco $3.7 $(5.8) $(3.4) $(6.2) $(12.7) $(19.3) $(43.7) E.Manning $2.1 $(20.4) $(6.7) $(1.4) $(14.6) $(12.0) $(53.0)

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Peyton Manning had previously held the record for highest PAYD amount … and still does, now at $30.1 million. That comes out to 24.5 percent of the 2013 cap. For comparison, the second-highest dollar mark of $29.8 million by Matt Ryan in 2016 only came out to 19.2 percent. Nick Foles also still holds the record for highest single-season relative value, coming in $24.1 million above his cap hit in 2013; it will be hard to beat a player on a third-round rookie contract who was the most efficient quarterback in the league. Not counting players on rookie deals, Case Keenum exceeded his pay by $18.6 million in 2017. Eli Manning's negative $20.4 million in 2013 is still the worst single-season value, but he no longer holds second place as well, as his brother Peyton was worse in 2015.

That's all for this year. As always, feel free to leave questions and suggestions below. I'm generally pretty prompt at responding.

Prior versions of this article can be found here:

Guest columnist Kevin Kolbe is originally from Houston, Texas, and has been in the Air Force since December of 2001. If you are interested in writing a guest column, something that takes a new angle on the NFL, please email us your idea at Contact Us.