After a three-month offseason that felt more like three years, The Challenge is finally back.

So I’m going to do what I do best (or worst, depending on how you feel about me) — ranking these fools to determine who has the best chance to win Total Madness.

I’m just going to be ranking the returning players. I honestly don’t care about rookies until I actually see them on the show, so I’m not going to break down the chances of Bayleigh, Jennifer or Kaycee in this article.

Let’s get to it.

CONTENDERS

1. Tori Deal (4th Season, 2 Finals Appearances)

War of the Worlds 2 was nearly a perfect season for Tori.

She got engaged to Jordan, won eliminations against top-tier competitors in Georgia and Jenny, and reached her second final.

The one thing missing from it being a perfect finish was Tori not getting to cross the finish line with Team UK. She couldn’t solve her puzzle at the beginning of day two and was purged out, ending what was almost a Cinderella story.

But with Tori’s combination of strength, endurance and likability, she’s bound to win a championship in the near future.

Tori and Jordan will likely have big targets coming into this season, but Tori has to be considered the favorite for what she has accomplished in her short time on the show.

With another strong season, Tori could solidify herself as one of the best female competitors in Challenge history.

Allies: I have a feeling she’s going to be in an alliance with her fiancé. Just a hunch.

The couple will likely be working tightly with Bananas, who Jordan has been allies with since he was humbled by him on Free Agents.

Tori worked closely with Jenny, Nany and Josh last season, and she was in a tight three-person alliance with Jenna and Kailah on Dirty 30.

She is also the only connection on this cast to Asaf, as they were on two seasons of Are You the One? together and have been good friends in the past.

Enemies: Wes and Jordan are basically arch rivals at this point, so by extension Tori will be in Wes’ crosshairs.

Ashley instigated the fight between Jordan and Turbo last season, and she was on opposing sides with Tori all last season.

Tori is a big target because she’s one of the best competitors in the game. While she might not have too many people coming for her right away, a lot of girls will want her out before the final because they know they can’t beat her.

ODDS TO WIN: +150

Tori might be the best competitor here, but this is a loaded group of females. She would probably be the favorite in a final against any of the girls, but getting to the final isn’t a given when almost every girl on this cast is at least competent in eliminations.

2. Jenny West (2nd Season, 0 Finals Appearances)

Arguably the biggest female specimen in Challenge history, Jenny was rolling through her rookie season until she ran into the Tori Choo Choo Train.

Regardless of her getting flattened by Tori, Jenny is still one of the most physically imposing female competitors in Challenge history.

The girl literally won a show called Survival of the Fittest in the UK.

One of the most amazing things about her Jenny’s physique is the how drastically she changed it from when she was younger.

As a personal trainer and bodybuilder, her job is to take care of her body. Clearly she does a damn good job of it.

Up until her elimination, Jenny didn’t show any weaknesses. She was clearly the strongest girl on Team UK, she was the fastest female swimmer in the Hooked mission and she won a puzzle elimination against Nicole B.

Nobody in their right mind will want to call Jenny into an elimination this season, but she’s going to have to take out somebody to make it to the end.

Hopefully she’ll figure out how to use her physicality to her advantage this time around.

Allies: It’s hard to say where Jenny will stand politically, but last season she worked closely with Tori, Jordan, Kyle, Bear, Nany and Bananas.

Enemies: No one, really? Jenny seemed to be pretty well liked by the entire house last season. If this was a Rivals season, they might not have been able to find a partner for her.

ODDS TO WIN: +180

I think Jenny is basically the second-coming of Emily Shromm, and she might even be a better overall competitor than her.

As long as physical eliminations don’t prove to be her Achilles heel, she has a great shot to win this.

3. Ashley Mitchell (6th Season, Two Wins, Three Finals Appearances)

I don’t know if I’ve ever seen the queue rating for a Challenger increase as much over the course of basically one season as it did with Ashley.

Ashley rebounded from losing the first elimination round on War of the Worlds to making the final in the sequel season.

She was the voice of reason for the US team. Seriously, read that sentence again.

Ashley Mitchell — the girl who was trending toward Camilanator-territory earlier in her career and was reviled by many fans after stealing $500K from her partner Hunter — was the most likable person on the show just two seasons after Final Reckoning.

Although she’s “only” been on five real seasons of the show, Ashley has already solidified herself as one of the best political players of all time. She’s ridden dominant alliances to the final thrice now, and was only voted into elimination on one of those seasons.

But the question going into Total Madness is who’s Ashley going to work with this time?

Allies: Most of Ashley’s traditional allies aren’t on this season. She’s the lone Lavender Lady left on the show. Her entire alliance from Team US — Cara, Paulie, Kam, Ninja and Leroy — isn’t here.

She’s always been Young Buck-adjacent, but she’s never had the greatest relationships with Nelson or Cory, her Rivals III partner.

Dee and Ashley were friendly last season, and she always seems to have a working relationship with Wes.

But when Ashley looks around at the cast when this season begins, she’s not going to see many close friends.

Enemies: Ashley and Nany feuded last season when Ashley instigated the fight that led to Turbo getting kicked out.

Ashley has never worked with Kailah and Jenna in the past, and she was on the opposite side of Jordan and Tori last season.

With no Lavender Ladies or Cult of Cara members around, Ashley might be a lone wolf coming into this season. But she’s become much more likable in recent seasons, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Millionaire Mitchell work her magic once again.

ODDS TO WIN: +260

While Ashley is one of the best females at running finals in Challenge history, she’s beatable in eliminations.

Her best attributes as a competitor is her endurance and puzzle abilities, which is exactly how she beat Nany in their elimination at the end of last season.

But she can be taken out in something physical by a lot of girls here, and without many people protecting her she’s vulnerable.

Ashley’s career for the most part has been either going out first or making it all the way to the end.

After reaching the final last season, she’s due for an early exit this time. Can she reverse the curse?

4. Dee Ngyuen (3rd Season, One Win)

The newest female champion (and first since Ashley on Invasion of the Champions), Dee is in a fairly similar situation to her flame Rogan.

While Dee has proven more in her short career competitively than Rogan, she was able to get through last season without ever having to go in, and she has just one career elimination victory.

We still don’t know a ton about Dee as a competitor, but what we do know is that she has the heart of a lion.

There were questions about whether Dee would be an anchor in the final for Team UK after she gassed out running around the house and was known to be a terrible swimmer.

Rogan tried to get her thrown in, even after Dee professed being in love with him earlier in the season.

But Dee kept Rogan in the game by pulling out an inspiring performance in the Puzzling Swim purge, then held her own in the final to help Team UK win.

Allies: Dee is Wes’ protégé, so it’s hard to see a scenario where she’s not working with him. She was also in the same alliance as Ashley last season.

But while Dee is generally well-liked in the house, she is missing some of her top allies this season like Ninja and Turbo.

It’s hard to predict whether she will work with Rogan after last season, or if she will be against him. If I had to guess, I think they’ll be working together, but she could still feel scorned by him and be seeking revenge.

Enemies: Dee and Bear have never gotten along. And if Bananas is going after Wes like usual this season, he’ll also be against Dee by extension.

ODDS TO WIN: +320

Dee might not be the strongest or most athletic girl on this cast, but I do think she has the most heart, and that goes a long way on The Challenge.

She might have people gunning for her since she’s the newest female champion, but she’s usually pretty well-liked and shouldn’t have too many people coming after her right off the bat.

No female since Jodi Weatherton has won two of her first three seasons. But if there’s one thing last season taught us, it’s to not underestimate Dee.

5. Mattie Breaux (2nd Season, One Finals Appearance)

Mattie had such a strong rookie season on War of the Worlds that she had Wes telling people that she’s better than Laurel.

I think those comparisons might have been slightly lofty, especially after seeing Mattie gas out early in the final.

But a season where it’s required to win an elimination to make the final plays into Mattie’s strength, as she’s one of the biggest girls in Challenge history. She ragdolled Natalie N and Julia in her Ring Tossed elimination win, and could likely do the same thing to about 75 percent of this cast in a physical battle.

Mattie is a solid daily challenge competitor, having made three tribunals in her rookie season. The biggest question about her coming into this season is whether or not she’s improved her cardio, because if she hasn’t she won’t be able to beat a lot of these girls in a final.

Allies: Mattie was super close with Kyle on War of the Worlds, to the point that the line between partner and lover blurred at times. She also seemed to be friends with Nany and Dee.

Enemies: Mattie really didn’t make many enemies on her rookie season, so at this juncture it’s hard to pinpoint who will be coming for her. Similar to Jenny, Mattie will be scary to face in the elimination ring, but I think more people are willing to run a final against Mattie than Jenny.

ODDS TO WIN: +380

Mattie is sort of the female version of CT. She might have the best odds of anyone to make the final, but the big question is what happens when she gets there?

If she hasn’t improved her endurance, then she might not be able to win. Based on her track record, she is clearly worse than every vet female in cardio besides Aneesa, Melissa and Big T.

She needs to drop the cigarettes and hit the treadmill to win this season.

DARK HORSES

6. Kailah Casillas (5th Season, One Finals Appearance)

Making her return after fighting with Melissa on Final Reckoning, Kailah is someone who has never been easy to root for, but also someone who doesn’t get the credit she deserves as a competitor.

She had strong seasons on both Dirty 30 and Vendettas, taking out Jenna and Aneesa in the former season and placing second among the girls in the latter.

Kailah is a well-rounded physical player, and on both of those seasons she was solid politically.

On Dirty 30 after the house tried to break up Jailah, once Jenna got back into the house she and Kailah formed a strong alliance with Cara, Camila and Tori, which led to them all making the final five.

On Vendettas, Kailah was in the Dolphins alliance and had the support of most of the strongest guys in the house, particularly Zach and Tony.

With a sneaky 4–1 elimination record, Kailah is a legitimate threat to make it to the end this season.

Allies: Obviously, she’s going to be working with her bestie Jenna. She and Nany might spend this season fighting for Jenna’s heart, but more likely they will all work closely together.

Kailah also worked with Tori and Jordan on Dirty 30, so she could easily link back up with them.

Kailah and Cory hooked up on Invasion, and are from the same generation of Real Worlders, so they could be on the same page. And with Cory of course comes Nelson.

Enemies: An easy person to start with is the person who got her kicked out of her last season, Melissa. The good thing is that Melissa isn’t that great of a competitor so she likely won’t have much power to throw Kailah in.

Kailah and Bananas have never really gotten along, and even though Johnny always works with Nany and Jenna, Kailah would be clearly his lowest priority of that triumvirate.

ODDS TO WIN: +600

Kailah is the definition of a good-but-not-great player. She’s solid in almost all aspects, but I don’t think she has what it takes to beat top-tier girls like Tori or Jenny.

If things break right for her and she ends up in a final with a group like Dee, Mattie and Nany, then she could win. But she’ll need a lot of luck.

7. Nany Gonzalez (9th Season, One Finals Appearance)

I really think this is going to be the season where Nany breaks through and wins her first championship.

Lol just kidding.

Nany has been my crush since I was a senior in high school, and I’ll continue to root for every time she’s on a season.

But realistically, it’s just not going to happen for her. Nany is basically the baseline of an average competitor, as she doesn’t have any major holes, but she also doesn’t excel in one particular area.

With new girls like Jenny, Mattie, Ninja, Georgia and Dee popping up, Nany’s chances of ever winning continues to dwindle.

She has a paltry 3–8 elimination record (although that number shoots to a respectable 7–8 if you count her four EX-iled wins from Battle of the Exes II). While she does have a lot of heart, she wouldn’t stand a chance in a physical elimination against some of the powerhouses like Tori, Jenny and Mattie.

The underrated thing about Nany is she almost always makes it deep into a season. In her entire career, she’s never done worse than being eliminated at the halfway point.

But she’s still lacking what it takes to make the jump from “contender to make a final” to “contender to win a final”.

Allies: Nany has a lot of friends on this season. She can count on Jenna, Bananas, Josh, Kyle, Tori, Jordan, Jenny and Bear to all be in her camp.

Nany is as ride-or-die for her friends as it comes (The Challenge literally gave her an award for this in the preseason), and most people value having someone so non-duplicitous on their side.

Enemies: Nany hated how Ashley manipulated Turbo into getting in a fight with Jordan last season. And if it comes down to choosing sides between Bananas and Wes, Nany will be anti-Wes every time.

ODDS TO WIN: +1000

I don’t want to say Nany will be considered a layup on this season, but other than Melissa and Big T I think she’s the least feared returning player in eliminations.

She might have to win several eliminations just to make it to the end, so she’ll have her work cut out for just to make her second final.

Actually winning the final will be borderline impossible for her.

8. Jenna Compono (7th Season, Three Finals Appearances)

The Barbie Beast is not quite as beastly as she used to be.

Jenna’s three consecutive finals appearances to start her career were inflated to begin with, thanks to being dragged along as the layup team on Exes II, being on a weak cast on Bloodlines and having protection from the dominant Bananas/Sarah team on Rivals III.

Although she started her career off going 5–0 in eliminations, she doesn’t have a win since Invasion.

She used to have a big advantage due to her sheer size, but she’s thinned out in recent years and isn’t able to overpower girls anymore.

Her best attributes are being likable and having strong cardio, but Jenna just doesn’t have the smarts, strength or athleticism to win an individual season.

Allies: She has two legitimate ride-or-die allies in Nany and Kailah. Since Kyle is such good friends with Zach, he’ll likely look out for Jenna as well. Cory and Jenna have been friends going back to their time on Real World: Ex-Plosion. Bananas also has traditionally worked with Jenna.

Enemies: Jenna’s biggest rival in her career has been Amanda, and while she’s most likely done with the show, her Lavender Lady cohort Ashley is still around.

ODDS TO WIN: +1100

Despite having lost some size in recent years, Jenna is still a decent elimination competitor.

But she’s not tough enough or smart enough to beat a lot of these girls, so I don’t like her chances if she has to win more than one elimination. Her best bet is to win an early elimination, then coast to the end.

LONG SHOTS

9. Aneesa Ferriera (13th season, Two Finals Appearances)

Even though she has zero shot of winning this thing, I’m pumped to see Aunty Aneesa back. It wouldn’t have felt right for her Challenge career to have ended from CT blowing out her ankle on Champs vs. Stars.

Aneesa hasn’t made a final since Barack Obama’s first year in office, but she tends to make an impact on pretty much every season she’s in. She has no problem butting herself into other people’s business, and is a lock to get into at least one fight per season.

Like Nany, Aneesa tends to make it fairly deep every season she’s on, despite having one of the worst political games in Challenge history.

Having debuted all the way back in season six, she’s a true OG of the show and is respected because of her veteran status. She’s still considered to be a threat in eliminations, despite coming into this season on a 0–4 skid.

Allies: Despite being on so many seasons over the years with the likes of Bananas, Wes and CT, she is rarely actually aligned with any of them. If she’s going to work closely with any of them, it’ll likely be Wes. The two have a relationship that dates all the way back to The Duel, and Wes will likely be looking for any ally he can find.

Corneesa will also be reunited this season, and while their relationship has had its ups and downs over the years, Cory could be a friendly face for Aneesa.

Aneesa usually plays the game as a lone wolf, and it almost never works out for her. She needs to find some people who will have her back this season.

Enemies: Aneesa was clearly upset at CT for his lack of remorse for injuring her, so we’ll see if that carries into this season. Aneesa threw Tori into elimination on Dirty 30, and Tori returned the favor by getting her eliminated by Veronica. Aneesa also has never cared for Jordan.

ODDS TO WIN: +4000

I don’t know if Aneesa can beat a single person on this cast in a final. If she doesn’t tear any major ligaments, I’d consider that a successful season for her.

10. Melissa Reeves (3rd Season, Zero Finals Appearances)

I’ve been riding the Melissa bandwagon since the first few episodes of her rookie season on Vendettas.

She’s only been on seven episodes of this show, but she’s made the most of that brief time — at least from an entertainment standpoint. Melissa has gotten in fights with Kam and Kailah, hooked up with Nicole Z, won an elimination against Alicia and competed in one of the greatest eliminations of all time against Sylvia.

She’s provided more entertainment in seven episodes than Jenna has in seven seasons.

But unfortunately, there’s a good chance this is the last time we’ll see DJ Mel Reeves, given she’s with child.

We haven’t seen someone pregnant on The Challenge since Gladys on Battle of the Sexes, and it’s hard to imagine if/when she discovers she’s pregnant that she’ll be allowed to continue.

Allies: The fetus growing inside of her womb. And maybe Kyle.

Enemies: It doesn’t seem like Kailah is really focused on getting Melissa out, but Melissa clearly still has a grudge against Kailah. Melissa is guaranteed to find drama in the house, so her list of enemies will likely grow.

ODDS TO WIN: +4500

I’m just hoping Melissa doesn’t discover she’s pregnant until late this season. She’s TV gold, and the longer she’s in the house the more likely it is that she stirs shit up in the house.

10. Big T (2nd Season, Zero Finals Appearances)

This might be the most head-scratching recasting in Challenge history.

I wonder how many people had to decline before production decided to put Big T on this season.

Like, did they tell Amanda she could come on despite being pregnant? Did they ask Rachel Campos-Duffy to leave her nine kids and television career behind and come live in a bunker with 27 maniacs? Did they try to convince Christina P to give up her stand up career and come back on The Challenge?

There’s not really much of an explanation for this. I can recap her entire season on War of the Worlds 2 in one sentence. She was friends with Sean (who I’d rather see on this season than Big T) and she put up a good fight in her elimination against Georgia before losing.

Of course, I’m not going to completely rule out the chance that she makes an impact on this season. Some of the greatest players in Challenge history — like Bananas, Cara Maria and Evelyn — were eliminated right off the bat in their original season.

Does that mean Big T will be the next legend of The Challenge?

Almost certainly not.

Allies: Big T is basically still a rookie, so she should probably look to team up with the newbies.

Enemies: It wouldn’t surprise me if she’s the first person called into the elimination ring, so she will likely have to earn her spot in the final early and often this season.

Odds to Win: +5000

Last season Big T was eliminated on episode two. The bar is very low for her to have a more successful season than her rookie campaign, but I’m still not confident she’ll do any better than last time.