How Accurately Can We Predict a Hitter’s Strikeout and Walk Rates?

Plate discipline is a crucial skill for every single major league player. Being able to lay off of bad pitches, make contact, and control the strike zone are skills that provide the foundation for some of the game’s best players to be great. These skills manifest themselves through important stats like strikeout and walk rate. If we could predict, with a reasonable degree of accuracy, how often a hitter walks or strikes out as the product of skill-based rates, we would open another window into player talent.

This article is my first attempt at mathematical analysis, and I would appreciate constructive criticism in the comments. Data used includes seasons with the minimum number of PA for the modeled statistic to stabilize (Reference: Rate at which K% and BB% stabilize) from 2002-2014 from all non-pitchers. With the size of this data, the possibility of overfitting is reduced. All statistics are through June 18, 2015.

Before we begin, I would like to briefly explain terminology: O-Swing% is the rate at which hitters swing at pitches outside of the strike zone as defined by Pitch-F/X; SwStr% is the rate at which hitters swing and miss; F-Strike% is the percentage of first strikes a hitter sees in his at bats.

To begin, I looked at expected strikeout rate. My model uses main effects for O-Swing%, SwStr%, and F-Strike%, as well as interaction effects between SwStr% and F-Strike%, O-Swing% and F-Strike%, and O-Swing% and SwStr%.

At first glance, the chart seems to produce a fairly reasonable result; if you don’t swing at bad pitches and make contact, you’re less likely to strike out.

Next up, we can tackle BB%. To define terminology once again: Z-Contact% is the rate at which a hitter makes contact on pitches inside the strike zone; Swing% is the rate at which a hitter swings at pitches.

My model uses main effects for Z-Contact%, Swing%, and F-Strike%, as well as interaction effects between Swing% and F-Strike%, Z-Contact% and Swing%, and Z-Contact% and F-Strike%. As a fair warning, the data may be unreliable as of right now; walk rate takes 120 PA to stabilize, and not all hitters in the sample have reached that yet.

Again, fairly reasonable. If you can control the strike zone by fighting off pitches and being disciplined with when you swing, you’ll walk more.

This data has shown that in the past, players who excel in these plate discipline statistics boast better walk and strikeout rates. If this information proves to be predicted, we can believe that players with xK% higher than their actual K% are likely to strike out more, and vice versa based on these underlying statistics remaining similar, and players with xBB% higher than their actual BB% can expect to walk more, with the opposite being true as well. Here is my full set of data:

Name xK% K% ∆K% xBB% BB% ∆BB% Ben Zobrist 9.93 8.6 -1.33 14.49 11.4 -3.09 Nick Markakis 9.38 12.5 3.12 11.32 12.9 1.58 Alberto Callaspo 10.07 10.4 0.33 11.96 11.6 -0.36 Shane Victorino 13.16 13.6 0.44 15.48 13.6 -1.88 Carlos Santana 12.48 15.6 3.12 14.56 19.1 4.54 Angel Pagan 9.54 14.6 5.06 10.69 5 -5.69 Michael Brantley 8.58 6.6 -1.98 9.57 11.9 2.33 Brayan Pena 9.17 7.7 -1.47 10.17 9.3 -0.87 Sandy Leon 9.55 13.4 3.85 10.2 7.5 -2.7 Brett Gardner 13.85 19.8 5.95 14.59 9.3 -5.29 Jayson Werth 13.39 21 7.61 14.01 10.1 -3.91 Ichiro Suzuki 8.39 10.3 1.91 7.91 7.7 -0.21 Cliff Pennington 15.8 14.4 -1.4 14.69 13.3 -1.39 Sam Fuld 12.06 15.6 3.54 11.02 9.8 -1.22 Chase Utley 10.92 12.7 1.78 9.82 8.9 -0.92 Stephen Vogt 13.54 20 6.46 11.91 14.6 2.69 Ben Revere 9.59 10.7 1.11 8.38 4.8 -3.58 Denard Span 9.73 8.7 -1.03 8.43 7.3 -1.13 Josh Reddick 12.44 9.1 -3.34 10.03 9.5 -0.53 Logan Forsythe 12.92 15.8 2.88 10.2 8.5 -1.7 Dustin Ackley 12.65 18.7 6.05 9.89 7.1 -2.79 Brock Holt 12.83 20 7.17 10 11.7 1.7 Eric Sogard 10.59 13.9 3.31 8.24 5.1 -3.14 Anthony Rizzo 14.76 12.4 -2.36 11.26 12.1 0.84 Dustin Pedroia 12.01 12.2 0.19 9.15 8.8 -0.35 Matt Carpenter 13.94 19.7 5.76 10.57 12.1 1.53 Jake Elmore 12.7 14.1 1.4 9.51 5.9 -3.61 Jose Ramirez 13.04 14.1 1.06 9.55 7.6 -1.95 Brian McCann 13.48 18.1 4.62 9.86 6.9 -2.96 Curtis Granderson 15.43 23.4 7.97 11.19 12.1 0.91 Mookie Betts 11.3 12 0.7 8.15 7.3 -0.85 Paul Goldschmidt 17.88 18.8 0.92 12.78 18.5 5.72 David DeJesus 10.39 13.8 3.41 7.42 6.6 -0.82 Yasmani Grandal 14.58 18.4 3.82 10.33 15.7 5.37 Jose Bautista 16.18 16 -0.18 11.32 17.6 6.28 Roberto Perez 19.2 30.3 11.1 13.4 18 4.6 Desmond Jennings 13.96 12.5 -1.46 9.74 9.7 -0.04 Martin Prado 10.54 12.2 1.66 7.29 4.4 -2.89 Mike Aviles 12.42 10.6 -1.82 8.5 7.8 -0.7 Jonny Gomes 19.39 32.4 13.01 13.2 9.6 -3.6 Adam Eaton 13.67 16.2 2.53 9.11 7.3 -1.81 James Loney 11.09 8.5 -2.59 7.34 6.8 -0.54 Joey Votto 17.12 18.6 1.48 11.3 13.9 2.6 Joe Panik 12.04 11.8 -0.24 7.91 8.8 0.89 Nori Aoki 9.91 6.1 -3.81 6.5 8.2 1.7 DJ LeMahieu 14.21 16.3 2.09 9.32 6.8 -2.52 Ryan Raburn 16.81 16.5 -0.31 10.97 9.2 -1.77 Kurt Suzuki 11.75 10.6 -1.15 7.61 7.1 -0.51 Mike Trout 15.56 22.1 6.54 10.07 11 0.93 Joe Mauer 13.31 16.4 3.09 8.58 8.6 0.02 Shin-Soo Choo 19.89 23.8 3.91 12.72 9.4 -3.32 Manny Machado 15.39 17 1.61 9.83 8.7 -1.13 Elvis Andrus 12.22 14.2 1.98 7.75 8.2 0.45 J.J. Hardy 14.14 21.6 7.46 8.96 3 -5.96 Jason Kipnis 13.4 13.5 0.1 8.48 9.8 1.32 Seth Smith 20.84 23.8 2.96 13.11 9.4 -3.71 Charlie Blackmon 14.31 18.8 4.49 8.96 6.9 -2.06 Russell Martin 14.63 19.9 5.27 9.14 10.4 1.26 Carlos Ruiz 11.71 13.9 2.19 7.2 8.7 1.5 Delino Deshields Jr. 17.31 23.2 5.89 10.51 11.9 1.39 Dilson Herrera 17.66 23.4 5.74 10.68 7.8 -2.88 J.B. Shuck 10.86 5.5 -5.36 6.52 8.2 1.68 Daniel Nava 15.4 21.9 6.5 9.19 9.6 0.41 Justin Smoak 21.12 28.4 7.28 12.42 11.9 -0.52 Geovany Soto 21.63 33 11.37 12.67 6.2 -6.47 Jose Iglesias 9.62 8.8 -0.82 5.62 5.9 0.28 Jason Heyward 15.86 18.5 2.64 9.25 5.6 -3.65 Martin Maldonado 19.26 25.4 6.14 11.22 8.5 -2.72 A.J. Ellis 14 16.2 2.2 8.1 12.2 4.1 Gregory Polanco 15.94 19.9 3.96 9.21 8.3 -0.91 Victor Martinez 12.4 10 -2.4 7.15 10.8 3.65 Ian Kinsler 11.29 12.6 1.31 6.51 10.1 3.59 Michael McKenry 19.78 25.9 6.12 11.34 14.1 2.76 Stephen Drew 13.68 17.4 3.72 7.83 8.2 0.37 Mike Napoli 20.93 25.3 4.37 11.86 12 0.14 Alexi Amarista 13.42 15.6 2.18 7.58 9.5 1.92 Lucas Duda 18.08 22.2 4.12 10.17 11.1 0.93 Dexter Fowler 18.01 21.7 3.69 10.1 10.3 0.2 Jimmy Rollins 17.08 16.9 -0.18 9.51 7.9 -1.61 Marcus Semien 17.22 20.6 3.38 9.56 7.4 -2.16 Robinson Chirinos 17.35 22 4.65 9.59 10.7 1.11 Ike Davis 12.88 13.9 1.02 7.1 9.6 2.5 Christian Colon 13.93 13 -0.93 7.68 9.1 1.42 Michael Bourn 18.5 21.3 2.8 10.16 9 -1.16 Jonathan Lucroy 11.69 13.7 2.01 6.39 6 -0.39 Melky Cabrera 11.61 11.1 -0.51 6.34 5.2 -1.14 Alex Avila 23.76 28.4 4.64 12.93 17.6 4.67 Adam Rosales 20.41 23.1 2.69 11.08 8.8 -2.28 Gordon Beckham 12.58 13.2 0.62 6.8 8.8 2 Austin Jackson 15.75 20.2 4.45 8.5 5.2 -3.3 Max Muncy 19.26 26.2 6.94 10.38 9.5 -0.88 Jace Peterson 18.82 17.3 -1.52 10.12 10 -0.12 Mark Teixeira 16.69 14.6 -2.09 8.96 14.2 5.24 Jake Lamb 18.39 15.4 -2.99 9.86 12.3 2.44 Jacoby Ellsbury 12.63 13.5 0.87 6.76 11.2 4.44 Jordy Mercer 16.61 15.4 -1.21 8.87 5.1 -3.77 David Ortiz 18.91 15.7 -3.21 10.1 11.2 1.1 Ryan Hanigan 9.77 17.9 8.13 5.21 13.4 8.19 Jonathan Herrera 10.83 8.3 -2.53 5.74 1.7 -4.04 Jason Rogers 19.09 18.5 -0.59 10.1 4.9 -5.2 Edwin Encarnacion 19.9 20.8 0.9 10.5 11.2 0.7 Tuffy Gosewisch 15.63 16.7 1.07 8.22 5.8 -2.42 David Murphy 12.5 9.2 -3.3 6.57 5.7 -0.87 Mark Canha 19.24 19.8 0.56 10.11 8 -2.11 Brian Dozier 17.57 19 1.43 9.2 9.9 0.7 Adam LaRoche 20.82 29.4 8.58 10.9 13.4 2.5 Mike Moustakas 12.63 11.1 -1.53 6.59 5.5 -1.09 Micah Johnson 17.13 20.5 3.37 8.92 6 -2.92 Kyle Seager 14.48 13.6 -0.88 7.54 7.2 -0.34 Jake Smolinski 20.14 26 5.86 10.38 15.1 4.72 Jung-ho Kang 20.84 20.5 -0.34 10.74 8.2 -2.54 Bryce Harper 19.44 19.9 0.46 10.01 19.9 9.89 Cesar Hernandez 14.47 16.3 1.83 7.43 13.2 5.77 Jose Lobaton 22.49 27.7 5.21 11.52 12.3 0.78 Buster Posey 12.94 9.2 -3.74 6.62 10 3.38 Alex Gordon 17.38 19.6 2.22 8.87 11.5 2.63 Eric Hosmer 18.62 17.9 -0.72 9.48 9.9 0.42 Dan Uggla 19.48 23.5 4.02 9.89 12.3 2.41 Rickie Weeks 22.93 26.3 3.37 11.59 9.5 -2.09 Kelly Johnson 15.41 17.1 1.69 7.78 6.3 -1.48 Andrelton Simmons 10.98 6.7 -4.28 5.53 6.3 0.77 Daniel Murphy 10.2 7.4 -2.8 5.1 7 1.9 Jon Jay 12.16 14.6 2.44 6.05 7 0.95 Johnny Giavotella 14.8 14.5 -0.3 7.34 7.9 0.56 Chase Headley 17.09 20.8 3.71 8.45 5.7 -2.75 Chris Stewart 13.09 12.1 -0.99 6.47 3 -3.47 Nick Swisher 21.66 21.6 -0.06 10.68 7.2 -3.48 Cameron Maybin 16.46 19.1 2.64 8.05 9.5 1.45 Ender Inciarte 11.18 11.2 0.02 5.46 3 -2.46 Devon Travis 15.79 18.5 2.71 7.65 7.5 -0.15 Yonder Alonso 15.74 12.2 -3.54 7.62 11 3.38 Carlos Peguero 29.38 41.1 11.72 14.14 14.4 0.26 Adam Lind 18.72 19.9 1.18 9 10 1 Jed Lowrie 18.53 20.3 1.77 8.92 16.2 7.28 Chris Coghlan 17.88 17.1 -0.78 8.56 10 1.44 Enrique Hernandez 21.87 20 -1.87 10.46 5 -5.46 Chris Iannetta 22.3 27.5 5.2 10.65 12.1 1.45 Wilmer Flores 12.57 12.3 -0.27 5.99 3.4 -2.59 Eric Campbell 17.99 18.4 0.41 8.56 10.3 1.74 Yangervis Solarte 13.86 11.6 -2.26 6.56 6.9 0.34 Trevor Plouffe 16.63 21.6 4.97 7.81 9 1.19 Skip Schumaker 14.61 15.1 0.49 6.85 11.3 4.45 Christian Yelich 19.95 24.1 4.15 9.34 8.5 -0.84 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 28.99 36.5 7.51 13.5 10.8 -2.7 Zack Cozart 14.17 13.6 -0.57 6.59 6.5 -0.09 Francisco Cervelli 16.81 19.1 2.29 7.81 9.5 1.69 Josh Donaldson 21.7 18.2 -3.5 10.06 7.7 -2.36 Rafael Ynoa 14.37 23.3 8.93 6.62 4.1 -2.52 JR Murphy 18.21 28.3 10.09 8.36 6.7 -1.66 Andrew McCutchen 19.54 14 -5.54 8.97 10.3 1.33 Jordan Pacheco 12.99 17.9 4.91 5.94 11.5 5.56 Ryan Zimmerman 15.23 17.1 1.87 6.96 7.3 0.34 Aaron Hill 14.52 16.2 1.68 6.63 7.8 1.17 Jay Bruce 20.96 23.7 2.74 9.55 14 4.45 Andrew Susac 22.56 25.4 2.84 10.25 14.1 3.85 Albert Pujols 14.26 9.9 -4.36 6.46 6.1 -0.36 Gregor Blanco 19.95 20.8 0.85 8.98 10.8 1.82 Shane Robinson 12.32 14.7 2.38 5.54 6.4 0.86 Billy Hamilton 14.51 15.9 1.39 6.49 5.7 -0.79 Luis Valbuena 19.32 21.5 2.18 8.52 8.1 -0.42 Steve Pearce 19.37 22.2 2.83 8.52 7.2 -1.32 Joc Pederson 26.61 28.9 2.29 11.67 16.7 5.03 George Springer 26.49 26.3 -0.19 11.62 13.5 1.88 A.J. Pollock 15.39 17 1.61 6.73 6.3 -0.43 Rougned Odor 19.02 22.7 3.68 8.29 6.4 -1.89 Andre Ethier 16.85 14.4 -2.45 7.33 10.1 2.77 John Mayberry 25.26 25 -0.26 10.96 9.2 -1.76 Justin Turner 16.48 14 -2.48 7.11 7.3 0.19 Tyler Moore 20 22.6 2.6 8.61 6 -2.61 Alex Rodriguez 24.61 21.7 -2.91 10.49 13 2.51 Rajai Davis 12.11 16.6 4.49 5.14 8.3 3.16 Eduardo Nunez 15.91 14.3 -1.61 6.73 5.7 -1.03 Billy Butler 15.77 15.6 -0.17 6.66 7.3 0.64 Matt Joyce 21.73 23.2 1.47 9.12 9.4 0.28 Ruben Tejada 17.67 16.5 -1.17 7.38 9.9 2.52 Justin Ruggiano 26.91 33.3 6.39 11.21 13.6 2.39 Hanser Alberto 11.57 11.7 0.13 4.81 3.3 -1.51 Clint Robinson 16.32 13.7 -2.62 6.78 7.4 0.62 Jason Castro 24.29 25.4 1.11 10.04 8.5 -1.54 Ryan Flaherty 19.84 27.4 7.56 8.18 9.4 1.22 David Freese 18.65 21.3 2.65 7.67 5.9 -1.77 Logan Morrison 17.74 15.8 -1.94 7.26 8.5 1.24 Neil Walker 17.16 20 2.84 7.02 5.6 -1.42 Ryan Goins 14.73 18.5 3.77 6.02 5.6 -0.42 Evan Longoria 19.7 19.9 0.2 8.06 10.3 2.24 Nick Ahmed 19.76 23.7 3.94 8.06 10.1 2.04 David Peralta 18.81 19.8 0.99 7.65 8.8 1.15 Jarrod Dyson 13.37 15.2 1.83 5.41 2.5 -2.91 Miguel Montero 20.72 21.3 0.58 8.38 14.8 6.42 Pedro Alvarez 20.86 23.6 2.74 8.41 10.4 1.99 Xander Bogaerts 16.74 14.4 -2.34 6.66 5.3 -1.36 Kole Calhoun 18.28 20.2 1.92 7.26 7.2 -0.06 Aaron Hicks 18.11 17.2 -0.91 7.18 6.1 -1.08 Darin Ruf 21.72 22.5 0.78 8.55 5.4 -3.15 Maikel Franco 17.26 14.1 -3.16 6.78 4.7 -2.08 Mitch Moreland 20.59 21.2 0.61 8.09 7.1 -0.99 Emilio Bonifacio 18.97 34.8 15.83 7.41 2.9 -4.51 Miguel Cabrera 17.3 16.4 -0.9 6.76 15.4 8.64 Hanley Ramirez 17.35 13.9 -3.45 6.77 6 -0.77 Travis Snider 20.62 21.5 0.88 8.04 10.4 2.36 Derek Norris 18.14 22 3.86 7.07 6.3 -0.77 Caleb Joseph 18.4 22.1 3.7 7.15 9.3 2.15 Chris Davis 26.47 32.3 5.83 10.27 11.5 1.23 Jordan Schafer 19.82 31.1 11.28 7.67 4.1 -3.57 Eric Young 19.85 20 0.15 7.66 7.1 -0.56 Kevin Kiermaier 17.86 17.8 -0.06 6.89 4.2 -2.69 Jose Reyes 14.61 14.5 -0.11 5.62 4.8 -0.82 Justin Bour 23.95 21.9 -2.05 9.2 10.5 1.3 Colby Rasmus 27.91 33.5 5.59 10.71 10.1 -0.61 Giancarlo Stanton 27.86 30.1 2.24 10.68 11.2 0.52 Will Middlebrooks 21.35 22.7 1.35 8.19 4.5 -3.69 Brad Miller 22.73 22.3 -0.43 8.71 10.2 1.49 J.T. Realmuto 13.13 13.4 0.27 5.02 4.1 -0.92 Ezequiel Carrera 22.05 20.9 -1.15 8.41 5.5 -2.91 Khris Davis 25.9 24.3 -1.6 9.83 11.2 1.37 Troy Tulowitzki 19.47 21.3 1.83 7.34 4.8 -2.54 Freddie Freeman 22.11 22.3 0.19 8.33 9.2 0.87 Adrian Beltre 14.94 9.5 -5.44 5.62 4.5 -1.12 Prince Fielder 15.49 11.2 -4.29 5.81 7.3 1.49 Carlos Sanchez 20.65 24.5 3.85 7.73 3.9 -3.83 Starlin Castro 18.61 17.2 -1.41 6.94 4.1 -2.84 Alex Rios 17.21 18.3 1.09 6.36 2.4 -3.96 Freddy Galvis 13.77 15.3 1.53 5.07 5.1 0.03 Kolten Wong 17.2 14.4 -2.8 6.31 6.8 0.49 Kevin Plawecki 19.73 25.4 5.67 7.23 5.7 -1.53 Travis d'Arnaud 16.66 14.3 -2.36 6.07 2.9 -3.17 Jedd Gyorko 21.14 26.7 5.56 7.69 7.6 -0.09 Justin Upton 24.59 25.6 1.01 8.95 10.5 1.55 Chris Carter 28.04 33.3 5.26 10.19 14.3 4.11 Nelson Cruz 24.64 25.3 0.66 8.93 8.2 -0.73 Brandon Belt 23.72 26.7 2.98 8.57 9.3 0.73 Matt Holliday 19.76 17.9 -1.86 7.12 15.1 7.98 Tucker Barnhart 17.11 23.4 6.29 6.16 7.8 1.64 Dee Gordon 13.43 15.3 1.87 4.83 3.5 -1.33 Steven Souza 22.39 33.7 11.31 8.04 12 3.96 Preston Tucker 22.61 20.7 -1.91 8.08 9 0.92 Carlos Beltran 17.24 18.7 1.46 6.13 5.1 -1.03 Will Venable 20.8 25 4.2 7.37 7.6 0.23 Todd Cunningham 13.74 18.2 4.46 4.85 5.2 0.35 Wil Myers 20.17 19.5 -0.67 7.07 6.3 -0.77 Hank Conger 18.68 27.1 8.42 6.53 14.1 7.57 Dalton Pompey 27.92 24.2 -3.72 9.76 6.6 -3.16 Blake Swihart 18.04 26.9 8.86 6.3 5.9 -0.4 Marcell Ozuna 21 20 -1 7.29 7.2 -0.09 Everth Cabrera 20.51 21 0.49 7.12 4.8 -2.32 Jose Altuve 11.76 9.8 -1.96 4.07 5.8 1.73 Junior Lake 28.56 32.3 3.74 9.85 6.5 -3.35 Carlos Perez 19.48 20.7 1.22 6.69 2.3 -4.39 Matt Duffy 16.95 18 1.05 5.81 5.2 -0.61 David Ross 27.02 31.4 4.38 9.26 14.3 5.04 Alejandro De Aza 20.19 28.1 7.91 6.91 5.8 -1.11 Yasiel Puig 20.67 17.2 -3.47 7.06 9.7 2.64 Elian Herrera 17.53 23.1 5.57 5.95 6.5 0.55 Cody Asche 20.05 24.7 4.65 6.71 5.1 -1.61 Daniel Descalso 17.67 22.5 4.83 5.9 6.7 0.8 Gerardo Parra 16.71 19 2.29 5.55 4.9 -0.65 Leonys Martin 19.64 18 -1.64 6.51 5 -1.51 Todd Frazier 20.58 18.2 -2.38 6.81 7.9 1.09 Yoenis Cespedes 19.81 21.6 1.79 6.55 5.2 -1.35 Robinson Cano 16.7 17.2 0.5 5.5 5.1 -0.4 Kris Bryant 26.47 29.3 2.83 8.7 13.4 4.7 Jonathan Villar 20.61 25.7 5.09 6.77 7.6 0.83 Howie Kendrick 18.76 18.1 -0.66 6.15 7.3 1.15 Kristopher Negron 20.49 21 0.51 6.69 8.6 1.91 Collin Cowgill 24.76 24.2 -0.56 8.08 6.1 -1.98 Jean Segura 14.67 15.7 1.03 4.78 2.9 -1.88 Adrian Gonzalez 17.47 15.4 -2.07 5.67 10.3 4.63 Eduardo Escobar 19.74 23.8 4.06 6.34 2.8 -3.54 Adeiny Hechavarria 15.89 15.8 -0.09 5.1 4.5 -0.6 Mark Reynolds 25.3 29.6 4.3 8.08 9.5 1.42 Odubel Herrera 19.56 25.7 6.14 6.21 4.1 -2.11 C.J. Cron 16.65 20.2 3.55 5.25 1.8 -3.45 Kirk Nieuwenhuis 28.51 40.6 12.09 8.97 6.3 -2.67 Hunter Pence 25.87 18.4 -7.47 8.13 6.6 -1.53 Ryan Braun 17.11 21 3.89 5.37 9.1 3.73 Asdrubal Cabrera 21.1 23 1.9 6.62 6.7 0.08 Kennys Vargas 23.64 29.6 5.96 7.4 5.2 -2.2 Lorenzo Cain 16.73 18 1.27 5.23 6.1 0.87 Rusney Castillo 18.65 19.2 0.55 5.8 4.1 -1.7 Nick Franklin 28.37 27.5 -0.87 8.83 8.7 -0.13 Carlos Gonzalez 24.8 19.3 -5.5 7.71 9 1.29 Casey McGehee 21.12 20.6 -0.52 6.54 7.6 1.06 Nick Hundley 21.36 23 1.64 6.56 5.9 -0.66 Jorge Soler 26.68 32.2 5.52 8.19 7.2 -0.99 Didi Gregorius 19.14 16.8 -2.34 5.87 5.8 -0.07 Erick Aybar 14.22 14.2 -0.02 4.33 5.2 0.87 Yadier Molina 16.12 12.8 -3.32 4.9 6.8 1.9 Brandon Moss 24.22 26.9 2.68 7.36 9.9 2.54 Scott Van Slyke 23.27 21 -2.27 7.01 6 -1.01 Brandon Guyer 19.78 16.6 -3.18 5.94 5.5 -0.44 Omar Infante 17.34 15.3 -2.04 5.2 1.4 -3.8 Cory Spangenberg 17.99 22.2 4.21 5.38 7.2 1.82 Juan Lagares 17.91 19.4 1.49 5.35 3.9 -1.45 Conor Gillaspie 19.02 19.6 0.58 5.67 4.3 -1.37 Brett Lawrie 23.13 26.9 3.77 6.85 4 -2.85 Kevin Pillar 16.8 15.7 -1.1 4.94 4.6 -0.34 Jake Marisnick 21.08 25.5 4.42 6.16 4.6 -1.56 Lonnie Chisenhall 14.96 16.9 1.94 4.37 3.7 -0.67 Tim Beckham 26.42 29.5 3.08 7.7 6.7 -1 Yunel Escobar 15.72 13.8 -1.92 4.57 6.7 2.13 Juan Uribe 19.96 14.5 -5.46 5.79 7.3 1.51 Matt Kemp 23.79 23.4 -0.39 6.88 4.6 -2.28 Garrett Jones 25.58 27.9 2.32 7.39 7 -0.39 Jose Abreu 22.57 18.6 -3.97 6.51 5.5 -1.01 Matt Adams 19.05 22.9 3.85 5.48 5.2 -0.28 Addison Russell 23.78 31.4 7.62 6.83 6.9 0.07 Alexei Ramirez 17.15 13.3 -3.85 4.9 2.8 -2.1 Jhonny Peralta 20.49 18.4 -2.09 5.85 8.6 2.75 Kendrys Morales 20.7 15.3 -5.4 5.91 7.6 1.69 Alcides Escobar 15.56 10.4 -5.16 4.44 2.9 -1.54 Torii Hunter 19.42 16.3 -3.12 5.51 7.7 2.19 Billy Burns 15.08 15.6 0.52 4.21 5.2 0.99 Michael Cuddyer 21.87 23.3 1.43 6.08 6.5 0.42 Michael Taylor 26.68 32.1 5.42 7.39 7.7 0.31 Welington Castillo 22.97 23.8 0.83 6.33 6.7 0.37 Yan Gomes 18.33 26.1 7.77 5.03 2.2 -2.83 Chris Taylor 23.11 27.9 4.79 6.34 7.4 1.06 Chris Young 21.72 23.1 1.38 5.94 5.6 -0.34 David Lough 18.59 21.6 3.01 5.07 1.4 -3.67 Mike Zunino 29.18 36.2 7.02 7.94 6.5 -1.44 Cameron Rupp 21.34 27.5 6.16 5.8 10 4.2 Grady Sizemore 19.65 22.1 2.45 5.33 5.8 0.47 Anthony Gose 21.15 26.2 5.05 5.73 5.6 -0.13 Chris Johnson 26.89 27.8 0.91 7.21 7.6 0.39 A.J. Pierzynski 16.68 10.2 -6.48 4.45 5.4 0.95 Salvador Perez 18.24 13.7 -4.54 4.76 1.8 -2.96 Peter Bourjos 19.57 20.2 0.63 5.08 10.1 5.02 Brandon Crawford 23.9 20 -3.9 6.2 7.1 0.9 Willie Bloomquist 19.39 20.3 0.91 5.02 1.6 -3.42 Mark Trumbo 24.65 23.1 -1.55 6.36 4.4 -1.96 Danny Espinosa 21.04 21.5 0.46 5.4 10 4.6 Aramis Ramirez 17.17 15.8 -1.37 4.4 4 -0.4 Carlos Corporan 24.46 34.3 9.84 6.23 4.9 -1.33 Chris Colabello 22.91 25 2.09 5.7 5.5 -0.2 Josh Harrison 18.09 14.4 -3.69 4.49 3.9 -0.59 Justin Morneau 17.1 9.6 -7.5 4.23 2.9 -1.33 Jeff Francoeur 16.87 17 0.13 4.17 4.6 0.43 Paulo Orlando 19.94 17.1 -2.84 4.91 3.4 -1.51 Marwin Gonzalez 20.6 22.3 1.7 5.03 2 -3.03 James McCann 22.15 22.1 -0.05 5.35 4.3 -1.05 Kyle Blanks 22.82 28.2 5.38 5.5 5.6 0.1 Josh Phegley 18.14 12.2 -5.94 4.32 6.7 2.38 Brandon Phillips 16.71 12.1 -4.61 3.92 5.2 1.28 Ian Desmond 20.66 28.1 7.44 4.85 4.7 -0.15 Tyler Flowers 22.51 33.1 10.59 5.22 4.2 -1.02 Justin Maxwell 27.08 23.7 -3.38 6.22 5.8 -0.42 Luis Sardinas 17.88 19.7 1.82 4.09 2.8 -1.29 Wilson Ramos 20.84 16 -4.84 4.75 3.4 -1.35 Pablo Sandoval 17.58 14.2 -3.38 3.99 5.2 1.21 Danny Valencia 19.83 21.2 1.37 4.39 4 -0.39 Brandon Barnes 22.85 22.7 -0.15 4.93 4.5 -0.43 Corey Dickerson 22.99 24.1 1.11 4.94 4.5 -0.44 J.D. Martinez 25.79 26.8 1.01 5.54 7.4 1.86 Nick Castellanos 24.43 24.8 0.37 5.22 6.4 1.18 Michael Morse 25.58 28.3 2.72 5.39 5.8 0.41 Rene Rivera 23.94 25.1 1.16 4.97 3.8 -1.17 Wilin Rosario 26.69 23.2 -3.49 5.54 1.8 -3.74 Evan Gattis 25 24 -1 4.97 4 -0.97 Ben Paulsen 24.83 22.5 -2.33 4.93 7.9 2.97 Yasmany Tomas 21.79 21.9 0.11 4.2 4.9 0.7 Joey Butler 26.24 26.8 0.56 4.97 2.9 -2.07 Nolan Arenado 20.09 14.6 -5.49 3.74 4.2 0.46 Marlon Byrd 25.41 24.9 -0.51 4.64 8.6 3.96 Starling Marte 23.1 23.2 0.1 4.17 5.2 1.03 Carlos Gomez 22.93 22.9 -0.03 4.14 3.6 -0.54 Scooter Gennett 18.46 23.2 4.74 3.25 3.2 -0.05 Chris Owings 22.86 25.2 2.34 4 2.6 -1.4 Ryan Howard 29.19 29.1 -0.09 5.11 4.6 -0.51 Clint Barmes 24.95 30.8 5.85 4.31 4.4 0.09 Danny Santana 21.69 26.1 4.41 3.74 1.1 -2.64 Alex Guerrero 21.68 24.6 2.92 3.67 3.8 0.13 Eddie Rosario 26.13 25.2 -0.93 4.38 4.3 -0.08 Hector Gomez 26.12 29.6 3.48 4.29 2.6 -1.69 Adam Jones 19.1 14 -5.1 3.1 4.7 1.6 Randal Grichuk 29.9 30.1 0.2 4.44 2.7 -1.74 Jimmy Paredes 30.51 25.5 -5.01 4.31 3.9 -0.41 Sean Rodriguez 26.19 25.3 -0.89 3.57 1.1 -2.47 Avisail Garcia 28.64 25.3 -3.34 3.75 5.8 2.05 Oswaldo Arcia 30.04 23.1 -6.94 3.89 6.2 2.31 Christian Bethancourt 25.72 17.3 -8.42 3.2 2.9 -0.3 Delmon Young 25.67 16.4 -9.27 2.97 2.4 -0.57

As we can see, some prominent MLB hitters could be looking at an uptick in strikeouts, such as Hunter Pence and Justin Morneau. As well, former Blue Jay Emilio Bonifacio and Tampa Bay Rays slugger Steven Souza have been getting “unlucky” with their strikeouts, and could see a decrease in the near future. Meanwhile, xBB% is not buying into two of the better hitters in the league right now, predicting Bryce Harper and Miguel Cabrera for sharp downticks in walk rate, whereas it predicts Geovany Soto and JJ Hardy to be among the players who could see a few more walks come their way.

Next up, Breaking Blue will take a look at xBABIP.