An unusually large number of House Republican incumbents were outraised by their Democratic opponents in the past three months, more stark evidence of GOP candidates' money woes, which continue to expand the number of seats susceptible to Democratic takeover.

Democrats in 56 House districts surpassed Republican incumbents in second-quarter fundraising, according to a POLITICO analysis of the latest Federal Election Commission filings. Sixteen of those House Republicans finished the quarter with less cash in their campaign accounts than Democratic opponents, while no Democratic members lag their Republican challengers in cash.


It’s a financial trend line that has gotten worse for Republican candidates over the past year, even as megadonors pour millions into the House GOP super PAC — a reflection of Democratic intensity that has coursed through the party’s donors and voters since President Donald Trump’s election.

The picture is even grimmer for Republicans in open, battleground districts, where a slew of retirements has put even more seats up for grabs. More than two dozen Democratic candidates in those districts also topped GOP opponents in fundraising, and 19 of those Democrats also led in cash on hand.

Congressional Leadership Fund, the main super PAC backing House Republicans, raised a record $51 million in the second quarter, which some strategists believe will help tilt battleground races their way in the fall. But others see the district-by-district money race as a mirror-image replay of the summer of 2010, when strong Republican fundraising heralded the House GOP wave four months later.

“If you allow yourself to be outraised, then you are inviting trouble,” said Chris LaCivita, a Republican consultant. “In a midterm election with your party in power, trouble generally equates to defeat.”

“These guys need to wake up and take a look in the mirror and decide — do they want to be reelected?” LaCivita added.

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The list of outraised incumbents includes some of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country — such as Reps. Jason Lewis in Minnesota, Rod Blum in Iowa, Dana Rohrabacher in California and Leonard Lance in New Jersey — as well as members like Reps. Dave Brat of Virginia and Steve Chabot of Ohio, whose Richmond- and Cincinnati-based seats have looked more and more competitive over the past year.

Democratic challengers’ fundraising performance in suburban districts around the country “is definitely a tailwind that’s pushing them into play,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican consultant based in California.

Some Republican members running in perennial battleground districts posted impressive totals, including Reps. Erik Paulsen in Minnesota, Mia Love in Utah, Barbara Comstock in Virginia and Brian Mast in Florida — all of whom raised more than $1 million last quarter.

Yet 22 Democrats running in GOP districts also broke $1 million raised in the second quarter, a rare feat for challengers. Those Democrats — such as Tom Malinowski in New Jersey and Gina Ortiz Jones in Texas — benefited from one-time cash infusions from progressive groups for winning Democratic primaries, a bump that Republicans say won’t repeat next quarter. Swing Left and Daily Kos have amassed more than $5 million to distribute to Democratic primary winners this year, some of which has yet to be disbursed.

But the million-dollar Democrats also raised significant money online and around the country as well as from their districts, a trend that could continue through the fall elections. Only three of them crossed the seven-figure threshold thanks to self-funding.

“From a money standpoint, it’s scary. From a turnout perspective and what all this money means for intensity [in November], that’s even scarier,” said Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster who works on House races.

But Republicans also argued that cash-flush candidates benefiting from a deluge of online fundraising “doesn’t necessarily translate into votes in the district,” said Ashlee Stephenson, a Republican consultant. “There's a big disconnect between the money raised out of district and turning into actual votes at the ballot box.”

Historically, Republicans in 2018 are faring worse than Democrats in 2010, the last wave election, when the GOP picked up more than 60 House seats. In the second quarter of 2010, 44 incumbent Democrats were outraised by Republican challengers, many of whom captured their seats in the fall, according to a POLITICO review of FEC records. Eight incumbent Democrats also trailed Republicans in cash on hand at this point in the 2010 election.

One endangered Democratic incumbent was outraised this quarter: Pennsylvania Rep. Matt Cartwright. Republican John Chrin, who's running in a district President Donald Trump won by nearly double-digits, topped Cartwright by $50,000.

But a handful of GOP members, lagging financially in ruby-red districts, may also need outside groups to come in to defend them — like Texas Rep. John Carter. His Democratic opponent, combat veteran MJ Hegar, released an online ad that went viral last quarter and helped her raise more than $1.1 million.

“This is shaping up to be the Democratic equivalent of the 2010 Republican year, and a lot of these members have never seen this or run in a cycle like it before,” Bolger said. “But the list of outraised candidates is getting longer, not shorter.”

The National Republican Congressional Committee said “Democrats in moderate, competitive districts have spent the majority of their money highlighting their progressive bona fides,” said Jesse Hunt, a spokesman for the committee. “Meanwhile, Republicans have continued to pad their campaign coffers and are well-positioned to execute effective campaigns this fall.”

And the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House Republican leadership, raised a whopping $51 million last quarter and has more than $70 million sitting in the bank. The group already raised a best-ever $66 million in 2017 and is set to pour record sums of super PAC money into this year’s House races.

“We set the public goal of $100 million, and we will far exceed that,” said Corry Bliss, executive director of the CLF. But he also warned that the group would not save everyone this fall, saying: “Those who are not willing to help themselves should not complain when outside support does not come their way,” he said.

The super PAC’s financial strength worries Democrats, who fear that CLF’s “bottomless pit of money” could “completely nullify any financial advantage Democratic candidates may get from their individual fundraising,” said one longtime national Democratic strategist, who likened CLF to the Death Star in the “Star Wars“ films.

“The gray hairs on my head, most of them, were grown as a result of Republican super PAC money, when I was chairing the DCCC,” said former Rep. Steve Israel, who led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2012 and 2014. “But the difference between then and now is that Democrats are anticipating it. They’re braced for it and they have taken steps to dilute it by outraising Republicans.”

CLF has already reserved more than $50 million in TV ads this fall, targeting nearly two dozen districts. Another $10 million will go toward digital ads. Meanwhile, CLF’s Democratic counterpart, House Majority PAC, has booked $40 million in TV ads in the fall, “on track to exceed the $56 million we raised and spent in the 2016 election,” said Jeb Fain, a spokesman for House Majority PAC.

But relying on an outside group, even with such deep pockets, may prove problematic in such a wide battlefield, according to some Republican strategists. “All these [outside group] efforts rarely take a local approach, so it’s often not as optimized as it can be by a candidate committee,” Stutzman said. “It’s hard to be completely dialed into these races when you have so many to tend to.”