Each of the constituencies saw the BJD having a vote share of 40 per cent and above with six out of the 11 constituencies seeing a vote share of more than 50 per cent. BJP had performed abysmally in almost all these districts and in eight out of the 11 districts had a vote share of less than 25 per cent.

While the strengthening of the BJP, getting dissident leaders from the BJD and bringing in of new faces, has given BJP a better chance, but the sheer numbers in these districts, make it a very difficult battle. BJD had promised 33 per cent reservation of Lok Sabha seats for women. Naveen Patnaik has a massive following among women in Odisha and this move seems perfectly in sync with his image. The BJD has already declared six female candidates and it is not surprising that four among them are from the safe coastal seats of Aska, Jagatsinghpur, Bhadrak and Jajpur. It is a tough battle for any other party in these seats and hence, it makes sense that the BJP is yet to declare its candidates for three of these seats. To take on Pramila Bisoi, a SHG member handpicked by Naveen Patnaik in Aska, the BJP has fielded Anita Priyadarshini. Anita is the daughter of the veteran leader from Ganjam, Ramakrushna Patnaik.

One of the major battles playing out in this election will be in Kendrapara. BJP has fielded ex-BJD leader, Baijayant Panda from his home constituency. Kendrapara has been a BJD bastion since 1998 and Congress has not been able to win this seat since the 1950s. Standing against Panda, is Ollywood actor and Rajya Sabha MP, Anubhav Mohanty. Panda has faced resistance from the local BJD leaders in the past, which has included physical attacks on him. His personal integrity is vouched for and he has invested a lot of time and energy in his constituency. But owing to his acrimonious exit from the party, it looks like Kendrapara will become a personal cause for the Chief Minister and every step will be taken to help the BJD prevail. This will be one contest to look out for and a lot will depend on the direction in which the Congress vote is transferred.

Even in the Modi wave of 2014, the two major urban centres of Odisha, Bhubaneshwar and Cuttack remained steadfast with BJD. The BJP has decided to approach the situation by bringing in two exceptional professionals from the administrative and police service to contest from these two seats. Renowned bureaucrat Aparajita Sarangi , is the candidate of BJP from Bhubaneshwar and former Odisha DGP, Prakash Mishra is the candidate from Cuttack. Both these individuals have tremendous public recall and their integrity is mostly unquestioned.

But, Cuttack and Bhubaneshwar can also be considered as BJD bastions with nearly 50 per cent of the votes polled last time going to the ruling party. Bhartruhari Mahtab is the sitting BJD MP from Cuttack and has held the seat since 1998. Recognising the lack of appeal of the ex-MP from Bhubaneshwar, Prasanna Patasani (also known as Chicken Baba), the BJD has brought in a new candidate. Pitched against Sarangi, is the former Mumbai police commissioner Arup Patnaik.

In Puri, the seasoned legal eagle from the BJD, Pinaki Mishra is contesting against the newsroom veteran from the BJP, Sambit Patra. Mishra has held the Puri seat for three terms, once as a Congress MP and twice as a MP from BJD. Patra is quick on the tongue and may get some traction in some assembly segments (particularly Chilika and Nayagarh) but it will be a very tough fight against Mishra.

Another seat in this zone is Balasore where sitting MP, Rabindra Kumar Jena from the BJD is going against the veteran BJP leader and former RSS Pracharak, Pratap Chandra Sarangi. While Sarangi seemed to be the most favourable candidate, there were some concerns raised after ex-BJP leader and three-time MP from Balasore, Kharabela Swain rejoined the party. It appears like he would have been the better choice from Balasore but has instead been fielded from Kandhamal. But, Balasore has never been a BJD stronghold and since 1998, has been won thrice by BJP and once each by the Congress and BJD. Jena has been interrogated by the CBI on the chit fund scam and the shadow of corruption comes along with his candidature.

The Berhampur seat is usually considered a Congress stronghold which the party managed to retain even at the height of the anti-Emergency agitation. In fact, the seat was considered so safe for the Congress that ex-prime minister, P V Narasimha Rao had contested from it in 1996. Ollywood actor Siddhant Mohapatra had won the seat for the BJD in 2009 and 2014. But, this time he has been denied the seat which has instead gone to the Congress candidate he defeated in the two previous terms, Chandrasekhar Sahu. Sahu has been a Congress MP from Berhampur in 2004 and has now joined the BJD and has immediately replaced Mohapatra. BJP has fielded its spokesperson, Bhrugu Baxipatra and Congress has gone with a new face, Chandra Sekhar Naidu who incidentally cannot speak in Odia (he speaks only Telugu, which is also an indication of the demography of the region).

The final seat in this region is Dhenkanal, which was held by BJD MP Tathagat Satpathy since 2004. The 4 time MP had decided to not contest elections and the BJD is yet to declare a replacement for him.

Westerly Winds Of Change?

While there are a lot of high profile candidates in the coastal districts, the real fight will be taking place in the 10 Western and Southern districts. 2014 had already thrown up a clear indication of the difference between the coastal and the Central and Western districts of the state. The BJP had not managed to bag any wins but was seen as having a stronger presence in the Western belt of the state. It lost the constituency of Bargarh by a narrow margin of 11000 votes and neighbouring Sambalpur by 30000 votes. It came second in the districts of Keonjhar, Bolangir, Mayurbhanj and Kalahandi. The only win that it managed to get was also in the Western part of Odisha.

Since then, a lot of water has flown through the Mahanadi (along with the escalating tension with the BJP ruled Chhattisgarh). The BJP in Odisha in 2014 was rudderless, with a very shaky organisational base and without a single identifiable face which could pose a challenge to the extremely popular Naveen Patnaik. Years of an alliance with the BJD and then the very acrimonious divorce had weakened the base of the BJP, even in districts where it used to enjoy clout. It was a massive and urgent task to strengthen that if the party wanted to have a shot at 2019. The big flip in the fortunes of the BJP came in 2017 in the form of the Zila Parishad elections. The BJP gained massively in Western Odisha and increased its tally from 36 to 306. While it is not prudent to extrapolate the results of local body elections to a parliamentary election, this clearly indicated that the BJP had worked on its organisational base and had concentrated on West Odisha as a potential game changer.

Let us take a look at the remaining 10 districts.