MONTREAL—One does not need to be a particularly astute parliamentary observer to notice the spring in the step of Stephen Harper’s MPs these days.

In the wake of a federal budget that they believe will secure the continued allegiance of the voters that gave the party a majority four years ago, the ruling Conservatives are oozing renewed confidence in their re-election prospects.

By the same token they seem to be taking in stride the unexpected turn of the Alberta election campaign and the possible demise of that province’s Conservative dynasty.

It is not that the latest illustration of the time-tested notion that the electorate can undo the best-laid plans of overconfident politicians is not giving some government MPs cause to pause. Nor are Harper’s Conservatives in collective denial over the possibility that the NDP could make a historical breakthrough in their party’s heartland.

But federal Conservative discomfort over the Alberta campaign is offset by the fact that — regardless of the outcome of next week’s vote — the dynamics that have turned the election into a three-way battle between the Wildrose, the NDPs and the Tories are not about to be replicated on the federal scene next fall.

What has propelled the Alberta New Democrats to a competitive position is a split on the right between two warring conservative factions combined with the fact that NDP Leader Rachel Notley decisively dominates her non-conservative competition.

If the recipe sounds familiar, it is a variation on the formula that led to Jean Chrétien’s three successive majority victories. The key ingredients at the federal level were the Reform/Tory schism and a federal NDP on its knees after a bruising experience in power in Ontario.

These days the shoe is on the other foot, with three national parties fighting for the territory to the left of a united Conservative party.

A fractured right in Alberta might not bode well for that unity when the time comes to choose a successor to Harper, but it is not a major impediment to the more immediate task of winning a fourth mandate.

Regardless of the ongoing tensions within the Conservative movement, the prime minister can reasonably expect all hands in Alberta to be on deck for his own re-election campaign next fall.

In another contrast with Alberta, the federal Liberals and New Democrats have in Justin Trudeau and Thomas Mulcair leaders with distinct but undeniable skills. That will make it hard for one party to crush the other on the way to uniting non-conservative voters against Harper in the fall.

If anything, the campaign developments in Alberta make that federal scenario even less likely.

The emergence of the NDP as a serious contender for government in Alberta reinforces Mulcair’s hand at a crucial time in the pre-election calendar.

The Liberal strategy for the fall election is in no small part predicated on driving home the argument that only Trudeau has a fighting chance to beat Harper. With polls reporting a softening in Liberal support nationally, that narrative has taken a hit this spring.

The Alberta developments compound that hit. They go some way to counter the narrative that there is simply not a critical mass of voters outside Quebec willing to consider the NDP as a credible governing option.

There are some Conservative strategists who feel that anything that is good for the NDP — including a strong showing against Jim Prentice’s Tories in Alberta — is also good for Harper. But that is only true up to a certain point.

Four years ago, fears of a surging NDP drove a contingent of Liberal sympathizers to the Conservative fold. Those voters contributed to making the difference between a minority and a majority Harper victory.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

Since Trudeau became leader, many have returned home. The less they fear an NDP government the less likely they are to jump ship to the Conservatives again.

Moreover, in at least some regions of the country, the wall that the Conservatives assume insulates their vote from NDP inroads may be less thick than they believe.

Chantal Hébert is a national affairs writer. Her column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.

Read more about: