Auto thefts rise during realignment's first year

(12-09) 21:03 PST SAN FRANCISCO -- California's historic reduction of the state prison population has coincided with a spike in auto thefts and other property crimes, but no significant increase in violent crimes such as murder and rape, according to a study released Monday.

There is "robust evidence" that auto thefts began to increase "noticeably" when Gov. Jerry Brown instituted a policy known as realignment in October 2011, in response to a federal court order to cut the prison population, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.

Realignment led to 65 more auto thefts per year per 100,000 residents during the first year of the new policy, the study found.

Violent crime - including murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault - rose 3.4 percent during that same time, but the increases appear to be part of a broader trend seen in other states, said Magnus Lofstrom, a research fellow at the institute who conducted the study with Steven Raphael, a UC Berkeley public policy professor.

"Realignment has brought enormous change to California, and it appears to have affected auto thefts, in particular," Lofstrom said. "Nonetheless, despite recent increases, rates of property and violent crime remain at historically low levels in the state - substantially lower than they were a decade ago."

Realignment was a response to a federal court order to thin the state's overcrowded prison system by 33,000 inmates. People convicted of crimes that aren't considered violent, serious or sexual are kept in local jails, rather than sent to state prison. State parole violators now serve time in jail rather than prison.

County judges can impose so-called split sentences, allowing offenders to serve part of their time out of jail but under probation supervision. In addition, state parolees who violate the terms of their prison release now spend a maximum of 90 days in jail, rather than up to a year in prison.

Big-county jumps

California's 10 largest counties generally experienced greater increases in crime under realignment than in the state overall, according to the new study, which was based on data from the state Department of Justice.

Property crime - motor vehicle theft, larceny and burglary - rose 7.6 percent, a greater increase than in states whose crime trends were similar to those of California before realignment, the study found.

Leading the way in California were auto thefts, which rose 14.8 percent to levels not seen since 2009, the study said.

On average, the number of property crimes went up by 1 to 1.5 per year for each realigned offender who is no longer incarcerated, the researchers said.

'Fear-mongering'

"Overall, I would say that this report is encouraging for those of us who believe that realignment is working," said Robin Lipetzky, Contra Costa County's public defender. "It is hugely significant that violent crime has not increased as a result of realignment, contrary to the fear-mongering we heard from those opposed to realignment."

Theft crimes

San Francisco Public Defender Jeff Adachi said, "The bad news is that economic crimes are up, meaning that some former prisoners are committing theft crimes because they don't have the means to support themselves when they're released from prison. I don't find this surprising, since in most counties, the money saved by realignment has been unwisely spent on more jail cells, rather than services to help former prisoners to re-enter society and remain crime-free."

Some crime experts cautioned against making assumptions about realignment's effects based on raw data. They noted that when Brown signed legislation creating realignment, there was no mandate for the state to track inmates affected by it.

Attributing changes in crime trends to realignment "is almost impossible," said Barry Krisberg, a senior fellow at UC Berkeley Law School. Too many other factors play a part in crime-rate changes, including layoffs of police officers and the closures of community-based treatment programs, he said.