Contrary to initial widely reported speculation, Narendra Modi is not likely to contest from Uttar Pradesh.

Contrary to initial widely reported speculation, Narendra Modi is not likely to contest from Uttar Pradesh.

His proactive campaigning in the state, to which he has made three outings in less than a month (with another scheduled visit to Agra on 21 November) have only fueled rumours that he may stand as a candidate from the state to further boost the BJP's poll prospects. As a development oriented leader from a backward community with strong Hindutva credentials, Modi would have come to UP as a fiery Mandal, Kamandal and Vikas combo - a hugely attractive electoral proposition in the state.

However BJP sources have told Firstpost that Modi has informed party president Rajnath Singh that he has no desire to contest from UP, preferring instead to head the reorganisation of the party in the state and help with the fine tuning of poll strategy there. He will therefore, most likely contest polls from his home state, Gujarat. He has not decided however which of the 26 seats of the state would be a good constituency for him.

According to the party sources, Modi had told Rajnath Singh that it would not be a wise idea for him (as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate) and Singh (as BJP president) to contest from the same state. Both the leaders are firmly rooted in their respective home states and it is important for the BJP to show diversity in their leadership.

Sources said Modi also does not want to contest from two constituencies, one in Gujarat and the other in Uttar Pradesh.

Even if he were to win both seats, there are several historical examples showing how leaders who won from two constituencies had to face the wrath of people of the constituency they later chose to vacate. The most recent example is that of Akhilesh Yadav who won from two constituencies in the last parliamentary elections. When he vacated Ferozabad and fielded his wife Dimple there instead, she lost to Raj Babbar, the actor turned politician who had revolted from the Samajwadi Party and joined Congress prior to the elections. In Modi’s case the backlash situation may not just be constituency-centric but also state-centric. Something that is completely undesirable for the leader and the party.

The issue is also linked with the Gujarati pride that Modi invokes so often.

He is working to don Sardar Patel’s mantle and a decision to move out of Gujarat to contest elections would hurt that pride and create some popular backlash against him and the BJP. Before the new one word chant of “Modi, Modi, Modi…” became popular, the most popular slogan for party workers had been Dekho Dekho Kaun Aya Gujarat Ka Sher Aya. Modi's Prime Ministerial claims have been built on governance in Gujarat, and in his recent Bahraich rally he spoke of Gir lions and how lions are known for roars, with barely disguised pride.

Moreover, the leaders who have moved out of their home states to find more convenient electoral abodes in some other states have mostly done so, not because they loved the other state so much but because they couldn’t find a suitable and perpetually safe constituency in their home state. This is not the case with Modi.

But Rhetoric apart, it could be Rajnath Singh who captures Lucknow to lead Modi’s onward march from Gujarat to Delhi.

The BJP leader is under pressure from his sympathisers and party workers to shift from his Ghaziabad parliamentary constituency to either Noida or Lucknow. Both are urban constituencies and have a BJP tilt. Lucknow in particular, is considered quite prestigious for BJP. It was Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s constituency and is currently held by BJP’s Lalji Tandon.

In his rallies in UP, Modi is evoking the sub-nationalism of people of the state and asking why the state has remained backward despite the fact that it has given eight Prime Ministers to the country.

He candidly proclaimed that there would be no stopping him if UP alone decides to make a strong and stable government at the centre. In its previous regimes, the NDA could catapult to power only because, UP gave 55 plus seats to BJP in 1996 and 1998. He does seem to believe in the old saying that the road to Delhi leads from Lucknow. (Vajpayee indeed spelled Lucknow as “Luck Now” at the last BJP convention he attended there).