Very few NFL awards are coveted more than Offensive Rookie of the Year. Dating back to 1957, prior the NFL-AFL merger, the Associated Press has chosen a winner for the award each year. Of those who have won, 66% have been running backs including three of the last four. So, it’s not surprising that most contributors at NFL.com are expecting Josh Jacobs (RB, Oakland Raiders) to walk away with the award at season’s end.

While opinions matter, numbers are often more reliable and sometimes tell a different story. Let’s take a look at the numbers, including PFN’s Offensive Share Metric (OSM), for the top five candidates and see how they stack up against each other. Will the running back trend continue? Could it be the first quarterback since Dak Prescott, who won it three years ago? Or, will the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year go to a wide receiver for the first time since 2014 when it was presented to Odell Beckham, Jr.?