Burke Badenhop brings statistical savvy to Reds' bullpen

GOODYEAR, Ariz. — Burke Badenhop talks about baseball more like a guy with an economics degree from Bowling Green State University than he does a baseball player. Yet, he's both.

The 32-year-old Badenhop was the only free agent the Reds added to their 40-man roster this offseason, and his addition was still largely overlooked. Being overlooked is hardly a new occurrence for a middle reliever.

Still, he could be a huge addition for a Reds bullpen that was one of the worst in baseball a year ago. Badenhop is 18-23 with a 3.71 ERA in parts of seven seasons with four teams, and was 0-3 with a 2.29 ERA last season in Boston. Those aren't the numbers that cause the ticket office to bring in extra staffing, and they're not even the numbers Badenhop uses to judge his own performance — or the reason the Reds signed him.

The biggest thing with Badenhop is his 55.6 percent career ground-ball rate, and the 61 percent he had last season was seventh-best in baseball among qualified relievers. At Great American Ball Park with one of the best defenses in the game behind him, a pitcher with that type of ground-ball rate is perfect for the Reds.

When Badenhop joined the Rays before the 2012 season after four years with the Marlins, he was introduced more to the statistical analysis favored by Tampa and many other teams. Because of his education, the numbers made a lot of sense to him, and he started looking at advanced statistics more, as well as thinking about which numbers were really important.

"Economics is how numbers paint a picture, and that's kind of how baseball is," Badenhop said.

In addition to ground ball percentage — which is simply which percentage of the balls put into player are grounders — here are some other statistics Badenhop likes to look at as a reliever:

• RE24: This is run expectancy based on the 24 base-out states, which means the different situations you can enter a game. There are exactly 24 situations a pitchers can face, based on outs and where the baserunners are, i.e., runner on first and one out, or bases empty, bases loaded, runners on first and second with two outs, etc.

"Not every situation is equal," Badenhop said.

In the end, RE24 tells Badenhop how much he helped his team. Last season he had an RE24 of 12.09 — or more than 12 runs better than average. According to FanGraphs.com, an RE24 of 10 is "great" and of 15 is "excellent" for relievers. He was 27th among qualified relievers in the statistic last season, with only one Reds pitcher besting his mark — Aroldis Chapman (15.07). Of the 19 Reds relievers last season, only nine — including Skip Schumaker — had an RE24 above 0 last season.

• WHIP: While it's often stated as an advanced stat, WHIP is perhaps as simple of a statistic as there is in baseball. It's name says it all — "Walks, Hits per Inning Pitched." That's how many people you put on base versus how many outs. Last season, Badenhop was at 1.259, not bad, but not outstanding. Although that's to be expected for a pitcher that doesn't strike out a high rate of batters and relies on his defense to turn balls in play into outs.

And then there's the much longer list of stats Badenhop doesn't like — or at least doesn't believe paint an accurate picture of a reliever's performance.

• Holds: The amount of bile that Badenhop has for holds may top all the rest. While there's limitations to some stats, holds have very little redeeming value, yet are used in arbitration and by teams.

Few people seem to like - or care about - holds, but the stat still holds some sway.

• Inherited runs scored: Badenhop considers this the other side of RE24.

"It doesn't take into account the situation," he said. "It doesn't take into account who is at the plate. You can come into the game with bases loaded and nobody out and it assumes it's the same as bases loaded and no outs."

More than six months later, this stat sticks in Badenhop's craw because of his first blown save of 2014, on June 15 against Cleveland. Boston's Brandon Workman gave up a walk and a single to start the seventh, when John Farrell called in Badenhop with runners on first and third and no outs.

"I get a sac fly and to left field, 285 feet — and it's a blown save. I get the next two guys out, bing, bang, boom — and blown save," Badenhop said. "There's nothing worse than a blown save. I wasn't in there to save the game and I get a blown save. Re24 will tell you that first and third and nobody out, that guy at third is going to score most of the time. That guy's probably going to score to tie the game, my job is to make sure the guy on first doesn't score, so we're not losing the game. I did my job."

• ERA: Because of several factors — sample sizes, situational differences and the fact that runs are charged to the pitcher who put the runner on, rather than the pitcher who allowed the run — this can be flawed for relievers.

"ERA (for relievers) terrible — unless you have a really good one," Badenhop said.

And that's where his bias as a non-closer comes in. Closers, he notes, will have a skewed ERA because — "if you're on the road, and you blow the game, the game's over. If it's a tie game, you give up a run, the game's over. You don't have a chance to blow up and give four runs."

But of all the numbers he can recite, Badenhop said the best is the least complex — 0.

"I like to think about how many times I get my job done," Badenhop said. "(Fellow Reds reliever) Kevin Gregg, in my first spring training and my first time in the bullpen, he told me your job is to put up a zero. That's your job."

It's a job he did 57 times out of 70 tries last season — and that's why he may be one of the team's biggest pickups of the offseason.