Comparing them to other MLS players at their positions, Bronico looks like a decent box-to-box player who doesn’t do nearly enough defending to be relied upon as a true #6, and Mihailovic also looks like a solid box-to-box midfielder who doesn’t create nearly enough in the attack to be a #10.

Now, maybe Medran is a chance creating machine, and “solid box-to-box” is all that the Fire need from Mihailovic. Maybe. To really compete in 2020 though, the Fire are going to need both of these players to make big steps forward, Bronico on the ball winning side, and Mihailovic in chance creation.

How good is Alvaro Medran?

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Actually, I think there are two questions here: 1) How good is Medran? And 2) Is he creative enough for what the Fire need?

I think in general he’s probably a pretty good soccer player and will do fine. He’s coming off a 2018/2019 season with 12 starts (21 appearances) and 1,100 minutes in La Liga for a Rayo Vallecano team that finished dead last. He’s hovered around 1,000 minutes for various La Liga teams over the last 4 years. That’s not eye-popping, but it’s still high-level soccer.

Whether he provides enough in attack is the real question. Other than two seasons in the Spanish 3rd division (which weren’t really eye-popping themselves), his most productive goal-scoring season was 2018/19 with 3 goals, and he’s never had more than 1 assist in a season. Those aren’t numbers that suggest he’s going to be a chance creating machine. Whether he provides enough in attack really depends on what the Fire are hoping for. If they aren’t counting on much, then a huge jump from Mihailovic becomes even more vital. If they’re counting on a lot, well, maybe they shouldn’t be.

Is Robert Beric good?

The Fire are certainly counting on Beric to be good and score lots of goals in 2020. With Nikolic gone, that leaves CJ Sapong, who seems likely (maybe even certain) to start on the wing, and Elliot Collier, as the only other forwards on the roster currently. Beric has spent the last few years as a decently productive forward in Ligue 1 with AS Saint-Etienne after a breakout season in 2014-15 where he scored 27 goals for Rapid Vienna.

Beric has never been a star for Saint-Etienne. He’s had 11, 8, 9, and 11 goals in all competitions the last 4 seasons. That doesn’t seem all that impressive, except he’s only exceeded 1500 minutes in one of those years (2062 minutes in 2016/17).

I’m not sure why he found minutes hard to come by, but his 0.51 goals/96 over that period would’ve been top 15 in MLS in 2019.

Can they defend?

I’ll say it again. Everyone says finishing was the thing that made the Fire missed the playoffs, even though they were only 1 goal below their xG for 2019, but it was more likely the seven goals above their xGA that ruined their season. Unfortunately, this is also the area where it seems like the least has been done to improve. Losing McCarty and Schweinsteiger almost certainly makes the defense worse, and they haven’t really been replaced.

I asked a friend who is a Fire supporter what his lineup prediction was and for the backline, he wrote “Defense?”

There are a lot of different things the Fire could do with their lineup defensively. They don’t lack versatility, it’s just hard to be confident that the talent is there. Left-back seems solid with Bornstein and Navarro competing for minutes there. Francisco Calvo is probably the only defender I can confidently place, as he’s basically locked in at CB. Johan Kappelhof is good, but it’s unclear if he will be at CB or RB, then RB is a huge question mark that so far in the preseason has been answered by Jeremiah Gutjahr (a winger/LB) and Brandt Bronico, the presumptive starting defensive midfielder. If the Fire bring in Gimenez in the midfield, that increases the likelihood of Bronico seeing a lot of minutes at right-back. If Kappelhof is at right-back, then there’s a question mark in the middle. Homegrown signing Nicholas Slonina started there against Nashville this past weekend, but he’s 18 and that would be surprising. Jonathan Campbell is on trial, and that’s fine as depth, but if he’s starting that’s probably not great.



Update: The Fire announced the signing of Boris Sekulić last week, which provides some clarity on the backline. Sekulic has played across the backline, but the vast majority of his appearances have been as a right-back. Bringing in a presumed starter at right-back means the Kappelhof almost certainly becomes Calvo's partner in the middle. Whether they will be good remains a question, but at least there is some clarity in where people will play.

Will the kids play?

This question probably isn’t a season-defining one, but a curious one nonetheless. The Fire have a few talented youngsters who could get minutes this year depending on signings that may or may not happen.

Nicholas Slonina is an 18-year old homegrown player who probably isn’t quite ready for MLS, but if the Fire don’t sign any more center backs then he’s either 3rd or 4th at that spot and will likely see minutes.

Mauricio Pineda is another homegrown signing, a midfielder/defender who played 4 years at North Carolina and was the Tar Heels’ captain last year. Pineda has started both of the Fire’s preseason games at defensive midfield, which could mean nothing because it’s preseason, or could be a sign of a chance at big minutes. If Bronico ends up at RB, then Pineda, for now, looks like a possible starter.

2020 Expectations

Best case scenario: Beric and Medran are really good, Mihailovic (and maybe Bronico) take the next step, the Fire add a couple of pieces, including a high-level defender, and the Fire are a playoff team, probably 5th-7th in the East. They use that as a building block and are competing near the top of the East in 2021.

Worst case: Beric doesn’t score, Mihailovic and Bronico stagnate, and the defense is one of the worst in MLS.

The big asterisk in much of this is that the MLS transfer window doesn’t close until May, so the Fire could still address some of these big questions with some signings. Also, it’s MLS so even if they do nothing, struggle through the first half, they could make a splash in the summer window and make a late run at the playoffs.