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This article was published 27/12/2019 (275 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Manitoba’s New Democrats are out of the political wilderness, a recent Probe Research poll has found.

Three months after the Progressive Conservatives were re-elected, the NDP’s support has increased five per cent.

"This is a party that is slowly clawing itself back, into maybe not the hearts of people, but at least into their consideration," said Scott MacKay, Probe’s founder. "If they’re able to keep going in this, they will be a very serious contender in the next provincial election."

A month ago, the Free Press commissioned Probe to question 1,000 Manitobans about their voting preference if an election were suddenly called.

The Progressive Conservatives remain Manitobans’ most popular choice, with 42 per cent support from respondents, compared with the 47 per cent of votes they garnered in the Sept. 10 election. Their base tends to be older, male, white and rural.

The NDP’s support has increased to 36 per cent. The party draws support from women (42 per cent compared with one-third for the PCs), millennials and people who have a post-secondary degree.

"We have a party that is certainly not waiting in the wings, but one that you could imagine regaining power someday," said MacKay.

"There was not this generational shunning that many people had predicted in 2016," he said, referring to when the PCs ended the NDP’s 17-year reign.

The poll put the Liberals and Greens at 13 and six per cent respectively; any change in either party’s support was within the poll’s margin of error. "The Liberals are just in suspended animation," MacKay said.

The movement of each of the four parties was similar in and out of Winnipeg.

Kelly Saunders, a political scientist at Brandon University, said governing parties usually enjoy a honeymoon period in which their popular support rises above the support they got on election day. That’s less common when a party is re-elected.

"The honeymoon period is becoming shorter and shorter, as we’re seeing increasing signs of voter volatility and frustration and mistrust of politicians generally," she said. "We don’t seem to be (as) willing to give them the benefit of the doubt."

MIKAELA MACKENZIE / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS FILES Brian Pallister’s Tories remain Manitobans’ top choice.

Saunders said the New Democrats have kept support from women, despite the PCs’ constant references during the fall campaign, to NDP Leader Wab Kinew being charged with domestic assault more than a decade ago.

Women tend to vote slightly more than men and are persuaded on issues such as climate change or civil and reproductive rights, she said.

"Looking at these numbers, the NDP has a good foundation on which to build, especially if they can really carve out their messaging," she said, noting they could "steal the thunder" from the stagnant Liberals and Greens.

"The Tories are going to have a much harder time in trying to appeal to those messages; their track record hasn’t been very good," she said.

Saunders said she suspected those themes could loom large in a PC leadership race if Premier Brian Pallister were to step down. He has not given any indication of when he plans to retire.

MacKay noted that while the NDP gained traction with households that earn less than $50,000 annually, Manitobans who don’t have post-secondary education side heavily with the PCs. Normally, voters in both those categories support the same party.

The poll was conducted while Pallister made headlines for pushing back against Quebec’s secularism law and during a crime wave in Winnipeg involving thefts at liquor marts and homicides. MacKay said both issues likely shaped poll results, though he wasn’t sure to what extent.

MIKAELA MACKENZIE / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS FILES Dougald Lamont’s Liberals are spinning their wheels.

Saunders said she suspects national parties’ fortunes reflect on provincial parties, especially with elections at both levels of government in the fall.

The federal Tories are dogged by a perception of lagging behind on climate change and social issues, while NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh exceeded low expectations for his party in the election.

Many voters don’t differentiate between the two levels, while Manitobans "really are that microcosm of the larger country," she said.

The Manitoba legislature would have benefited from different perspectives in scrutinizing legislation if the Liberals had retained official party status and if the Greens had won a seat.

"We’re really stuck with a two-party system in this province, and it seems like that is where we’re going to stay for the foreseeable future."

dylan.robertson@freepress.mb.ca