Every year when the NFL Draft rolls around, I experience four distinct levels of interest in the event.

As a FOOTBALL FAN. Football has been absorbed into my tiny little bones since childhood. I like to watch the NFL Draft as basic entertainment. It satisfies my curiosity. “Oh, I didn’t expect the Browns to NOT fuck up this year! Interesting!” It is the layer that offers me the least amount of engagement, but satisfies my basic need for football in the offseason.

As a SEAHAWKS FAN. My engagement is now starting to pick up. If I’m going to root for my team during the draft, I have to know which prospects I am hoping they come away with. I obsess over draft articles, scouting reports, team visits, and private workouts so that I can reliably narrow the field of potential Seahawks picks to a dozen or so. This way I always have players I am rooting for- prospects who I am personally high on, and who I pray will fall to the Seahawks (or at least not end up with the Patriots… I’m still pissed about Wilfork going two picks before we took Marcus Tubbs…)

As a FANTASY FOOTBALL PLAYER. This is what I would like to talk about right now. The fourth layer is all about competing in mock draft competitions or other NFL Draft games, but I’ll get more into that later. Why jump ahead? It’s fantasy football season right now.

I believe a huge number of people tuning into the draft are doing so with fantasy football on the brain. Viewing it through that lens is a way to invest yourself more fully into each pick. The offensive picks, anyway. Instead of just rooting for a guy to play for your favorite team… your brain is put to work, identifying the best combination of player talent, team fit, and opportunity. It’s when you start to think of potential. Which of these prospects can be the cornerstone of your fantasy team?

Fantasy drafts are filling up everyone’s nights, and fantasy football research is being done surreptitiously during work hours while the boss is at lunch. It’s time, right now, to talk about the fantasy impact of the 2016 NFL Draft.

No QBs or TEs in Top-10 Fantasy Football Rookies from the 2016 NFL Draft

I’m going to come at this ranking from a keeper/dynasty perspective, because I think we should view these prospects the same way the teams that drafted them do- as combination immediate-and-long-term assets. Here are my top fantasy prospects taken in the 2016 NFL Draft:

10) Sterling Shepard – WR, New York Giants, Round 2 Pick 9 (40 overall)

I’m sure many of you will stop reading right now. You’ll say “There’s no way nine rookies are going to score more than Sterling Shepard, you wretched contrarian!” To that I would say… you’re right. Nine rookies will probably not outscore Shepard. This year. But I have one hard rule when it comes to drafting wide receivers. One that I fear writing here, just in case members of my fantasy football leagues are reading. But here’s my rule:

Do not draft a wide receiver who isn’t his own team’s WR1.

Looking at the top scoring fantasy WRs from last season, each of the top-11 (and 19 of the top 25) is their team’s WR1.

When you draft Shepard, you are guaranteeing yourself that, for as long as Odell Beckham is in town, he will not be a top-10 WR. That cap on upside is really troubling to me. Yes, I expect him to put up WR2 numbers this year, and you will have to pay WR2 cost for him. But without a clear path to being his team’s #1 WR, I’m not touching him.

9) Tyler Boyd – WR, Cincinnati Bengals, Round 2 Pick 24 (55 overall)

Tyler Boyd has the same problem as Sterling Shepard, except his QB (Andy Dalton) is younger, his competition to be WR1 (A.J. Green) is older, and I actually like his skill set more. Boyd has crazy good hands and concentration. He moves smooth as cream, which should help him absorb hits and avoid injuries. He’ll be on the field as much as Shepard his rookie year, but he holds more long-term potential.

8) Derrick Henry – RB, Tennessee Titans, Round 2 Pick 14 (45 overall)

Derrick Henry is a prospect I didn’t like very much heading into the draft. He is, essentially, a Brandon Jacobs clone. And Jacobs had a couple good seasons (also sharing the ball in a crowded backfield, like Henry will with DeMarco Murray) but nothing to really get excited about. It’s true, I hate Brandon Jacobs because he cost me TWO fantasy football championships in three years. That might be contributing to my distaste for Derrick Henry. But if you are going to read my analysis, you also have to stomach my gut reactions, and my gut says Henry is big and fast and strong, but he runs upright and needs to gain a head of steam before he is effective. A head of steam is easier to get when you’re running behind the Alabama offensive line, maybe the best run blocking offensive line in college football. Not so easy in the NFL.

7) Keith Marshall – RB, Washington Redskins, Round 7 Pick 21 (242 overall)

Torchlight glows in the distance as the cackle of pitchforks shakes my bones. Please, I beg! Just hear me out. Everyone loves Derrick Henry because he is very fast for his massive size. An athletic freak. Well, at the NFL Combine, Keith Marshall ran a 4.31 40 and put up 25 reps of the bench press at 220 pounds. That is a big, strong, fast man! He landed in a better situation than Henry. He’s only behind Matt Jones, the league’s worst (including Latavius Murray) starting RB, and Matt Jones is even injured now! (update! Keither Marshall just got hurt last night… I am keeping my rankings as-is for now…) Will Keith Marshall step in right away and own that job? Maybe not. He’s a rookie. He has his own complex injury history. But his upside is something to behold. He is fast and fluid in the open field and has good hands. He slashes inside and glides in the open field, like a modern day Marcus Allen. He is a natural football player, and I believe he could end up as the top RB from this draft class.

6) Kenneth Dixon – RB, Baltimore Ravens, Round 4 Pick 36 (134 overall)

I’m a little torn on Dixon, so putting him at 6 was my only choice. I love his talent. He was my third favorite running back from the 2016 draft class. He is such a natural receiver, he can be utilized in that role at the minimum, which gives him a nice safe floor. There weren’t many teams he could have gone to that would frustrate me (the Lions would have been one) but when he was taken by the Ravens, I let out a sad sigh. They already have Buck Allen, who is a less-talented player with the exact same skill set. But he’s got a year of experience in the system. Justin Forsett is still probably locked in as the starter. And now reports out of camp are that Terrance West, a guy I really liked last season, is looking great. (update! Dixon was ALSO injured last night! This is why all fantasy drafts must always be scheduled after week 3 of the preseason!) It’s a crowded mess back there, and while I like Kenneth Dixon’s skills, I’m not sure they are enough to get him immediate touches, even in this weird/horrible/injured offense. The Ravens feel so unknown at every offensive position, I can’t with any confidence project him as a contributor, and I cannot project that offense as any kind of reliable engine for scoring points.

5) Josh Doctson – WR, Washington Redskins<, Round 1 Pick 22 (22 overall)

I know that Doctson is injured. Again… long-term. Keeper. The thing is, he is the lowest rated WR on my list who I can reasonably expect to be his team’s number 1 WR. First round pedigree is a nice thing to have… but when you have Kirk Cousins throwing the ball, the most important thing to have is a huge catch radius and the ability to win contested catches. Because let’s be honest… most of your catches will be contested. A big fast jump-ball expert is just what that offense needed, and it’s what they got in Josh Doctson. Right now there is a lot of competition for catches with Desean Jackson, Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon, and Jamison Crowder all really good options. But by this time next year, I imagine Doctson could be that team’s WR1. Both Desean and Pierre are unrestricted free agents. I’m not totally confident in Docston the player. I don’t love his game. But I can easily envision imagine a scenario in which he steps up as the Redskins’ best WR.

4) DeAndre Washington – RB, Oakland Raiders, Round 5 Pick 4 (143 overall)

I could change this spot from “DeAndre Washington” to “Whoever Is The Backup RB For The Raiders.” For now it is him, so he holds this spot. I actually don’t love him as a prospect, but every report out of Oakland describes him as “explosive.” I think his talent is limited and he goes down too easily because he is undersized. The thing is, Latavius Murray is a REALLY bad professional football player. He just has no vision or bust or wiggle, and he runs so upright I would be shocked if he didn’t have a major leg injury this season. And he is running behind an amazing offensive line, with a coach that loves to run the ball. So if it were any other RB backing up Murray, he would probably be a top-2 player for me. Given Washington’s limitations… he sits here at 4.

3) Laquan Treadwell – WR, Minnesota Vikings, Round 1 Pick 23 (23 overall)

Now HERE is a textbook example of an easy path to team WR1 status. He is exactly the long, physically imposing WR that can dominate the mid-range passes and help out a conservative QB such as Teddy Bridgewater (though I prefer the term methodical, because I like him…) Laquan Treadwell played hurt his last year in college, contributing to his underwhelming statistics. Those tidbits make me salivate. The problem right now is the Minnesota Vikings offense. This is the AP show, and will probably remain so for the next couple years. As Doug Baldwin showed last year, there are numbers to be had as the WR1 in a run-based offense… but Baldwin is a savvy vet. Treadwell is a rookie. He won’t put up big numbers right away. With Bridgewater, he might never put up elite numbers. But I like his chances much more than any other WR not named…

2) Corey Coleman – WR, Cleveland Browns, Round 1 Pick 15 (15 overall)

Corey Coleman is 95% of everything you could ever want in a rookie WR. He flat out dominated in college football. He personally owned the NFL combine, with amazing burst and speed scores. He has great hands, great agility, great tackle breaking ability, and a total love for the game that just radiates off of him. It feels like a privilege to watch this guy play. And he was drafted by a team without an established WR1. He steps right into that role. And much like Odell Beckham did three years ago, I expect him to absolutely refuse to relinquish that title when Josh Gordon returns from his suspension. Whether RG3 works out this season or the Browns are in the market for a QB (again) in the 2017 NFL Draft, Corey Coleman is a fantastic centerpiece for an offense that will probably be forced to throw often. DeAndre Hopkins showed us last season that a talented WR1 can overcome his QB play. It might take half a season, but Coleman will be the latest to reinforce this truism.

1) Ezekiel Elliott – RB, Dallas Cowboys, Round 1 Pick 4 (4 overall)

Duh. Everyone knew Ezekiel Elliott would be there at number one, and even I am not contrarian enough to pretend he isn’t the top rookie fantasy prospect. But if this column were about the best rookie fantasy VALUES of the 2016 season, Elliott would certainly lose out to Corey Coleman, who is being drafted at the end of the 9th round. It’s going to take a first rounder to draft Elliott. Elliott’s top ranking on this list is based more on opportunity than talent, though I do think he is a good player. I actually had him rated as the second best RB in this draft class (Keith Marshall, I love you!) But it is common knowledge that Elliott is running behind the best offensive line in the league with no competition for touches, and with an all-star WR and QB forcing defenses out of the box. Darren McFadden put up a top-15 season running behind this line! They kept Darren McFadden healthy! That’s, like… impossible!

So yes, Elliott has a great opportunity, and has the skills to make the most of that opportunity. The problem is, everyone knows it, and so you will not get a deal on him. For my money, target Coleman, Treadwell, and Marshall as the best value prospects from the 2016 NFL Draft.