Recently Microsoft announced a new product it will be releasing called Oragami. It is an interesting piece of hardware that falls somewhere between a PDA and a laptop in both size and functionality. Unfortunately for Microsoft, products like these are practically doomed to fail outside of their niche markets. And this trend continues not because quality products aren’t produced, but rather they are solutions in search of a problem. As products, they have fundamental flaws which inevitably lead to their failure in the marketplace. Here is a brief summary of the main reasons why Oragami (and devices like it) won’t be successful.



Who is it geared to?

The biggest problem with a device like this is that everyone who might buy it, already has something that works just fine right now. Thus, for a product like this to survive, Microsoft must convince a sufficient number of consumers that the current way they are doing things isn’t very good. And the only way to make their lives better is to use the new product. This is a very hard task to accomplish because this type of device is trying to pull people in from two different consumer groups, PDA users and ultra-portable laptop users.

PDA users will most likely look at Origami and conclude that it is too big for what they need. These are users who favor BlackBerries, PDA Cell Phones, Palm Pilots and the like. They are looking for a small device that will organize their life and fit in their pocket. This Origami device should easily do the former, but its dimensions prevent it from realizing the latter. So, all but the most diehard of PDA junkies won’t be interested in Origami.

Having failed in the PDA market, an enterprising company will turn to another promising market, laptop users. Sadly Microsoft (or any another company) won’t have much more luck here than it did with the PDA crowd, but that won’t prevent a valiant attempt from being made. What argument can possibly be made that will convince someone who already owns a small laptop or a tablet PC to give Origami a try? What can it do that a standard laptop can’t? Yes it is smaller, but also much harder to use due to a small screen, cramped keyboard and tiny controls.



Dedicated Devices vs Mutli-Use Systems

Where are tablets most popular? In industries that need a dedicated device that performs a small set of functions very well. Nurses, deliverymen, inventory control clerks, Firemen (they use them in the trucks for maps and reports). Other professionals in similar industries can always find a use for a moderately cheap, fairly durable tablet PC. These types of users will gladly buy a device like this . . . FOR THEIR JOB. But when quiting time rolls around they get dropped on the desk as everyone heads home. Meaning, they don’t use these products at the office and then go out and order one for home too. They have no need for one at home, only in their work environment. Thus these users are a profitable niche market, but one that is incapable of driving any explosive growth on the consumer side.

Why? Because the current group of dedicated devices has the market locked up pretty tight already. Consumers have no reason to go out and spend $1,000 on Origami when the same functionality can be had in 3 or 4 cheaper products.

Need to play music? Get an iPod, $100

Need to organizes your life? Get a PDA, $100

Need to play movies? Get a portable DVD player, $100

Need to make phone calls? Get a cell phone, $50

$350 – 4 devices vs $1,000 – 1 device

Consumers will look at this and realize that if they really wanted to scrap most of their dedicated devices, then they are much better off spending an extra hundred dollars or so and getting a decent laptop. It will have a bigger screen, bigger harddrive, more RAM, a keyboard and trackpad, DVD drive, lots of ports and will be easier to use than Origami. It might be heavier, but how many of us are really going to care about a few extra pounds when there is so much else going for the laptop?



Interface

This is the most difficult problem, by far, that must be overcome before adoption of Origami (or any other such product) can really take off. And unfortunately for Microsoft (and in fact most other companies) they will never be able to beat this one. Not because they don’t have the programmers to write the code or the resources to make the product (s), but rather, they lack someone who will put “ease of use” above everything else. Someone who will focus on style before features. That someone is not Bill Gates.

Origami (or Apple’s fabled ‘SuperPod’ ) will ultimately be faced with the same question. Should the device run a specialized OS (think Palm Pilot or iPod) or an actual operating system (Windows CE, OS X kitty cat)? This is a crucial choice because if the device is to complex then operating it will be too much of a hassle and no one will use it. Make it too simple and you will never be able to convince people to spend $$$ on a glorified PDA. A balance must be struck, but where? What is more important, funcitonality or ease of use? If Microsoft does this I see it as a laptop that is just really hard to use. If Apple does it, I see it as a much simpler portable media device. Where Origami will have a keyboard, Apple will have a scroll wheel. Origami can be used with one hand, a device from Apple can be operated with one finger. And yet, I still don’t know what the point would be.

If Apple produced this product tomorrow it might succeed. Notice I said might. If a product such as Origami came from Apple it would definitely look cool. And it would be easy to use. It would integrate tightly with all of Apple’s other products. . . but even with all of that going for it, I am not sure we are really ready for such a device. What will we do with it? Seriously, at the end of the day what makes this product special enough for you to spend almost a thousand dollars on it? Do you really need your media portable that bad?

Even if it was as easy to use as the iPod, what would be the main selling point? It plays movies? I don’t think the demand is there yet. Wireless internet? Get a laptop. Music? Pictures? Games? Maybe what you really need is a PSP.

This alone should be the biggest indicator that the market isn’t ready for something like this. If you look at things fairly and are struck by the fact that even Apple might not be able to pull this one off, well, at that point it is time to reconsider what it is exactly Microsoft hopes to accomplish.

But maybe I am wrong. Maybe the demand is there. Maybe Origami will be everything Microsoft hopes it will be. Maybe people will use it to listen to music, watch movies, organize their lives, read books, play games and maybe it will become a sensation on par with the iPod.

Maybe. . .

But I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.