2016-2017: 28-9, 11-7 in the ACC (tie for 5th); lost to South Carolina in the NCAA Round of 32

Preseason Projection: 2nd in the ACC; National Title Game

Final Standing: 29-8, 13-5 (2nd) in the ACC; lost to Kansas in the Elite 8

Departures: Luke Kennard (19.5 ppg., 5.1 rpg., 43.8% 3pt.) was the 12th pick in the NBA Draft, Jayson Tatum (16.8 ppg., 7.1 rpg., 1.3 spg., 1.1 bpg.) was the 3rd pick, Frank Jackson (10.9 ppg., 39.5% 3pt.) was the first pick of the 2nd round, and Harry Giles was the 20th pick; Amile Jefferson (10.9 ppg., 8.4 rpg., 1.9 bpg.) and Matt Jones (7.0 ppg.) graduated; Chase Jeter transferred to Arizona

With a second round loss to South Carolina, Duke was a part of the ACC's NCAA Tournament collapse a year ago, and much of that team was lost to graduation and early entrance to the NBA. However, like Kentucky, Duke doesn't rebuild but reloads, again signing one of the top recruiting classes in the nation. Still, Mike Krzyzewski will be challenged with one the youngest teams he's ever had, as only one likely rotation player will be above a sophomore.

Krzyzewski landed what could be his most talented point guard since Kyrie Irving with the signing of Trevon Duval, the most highly rated guard in his class and a projected lottery pick in next year's draft. Duval is the true point guard Duke has been missing since Tyus Jones helped lead the team to a championship in 2015; at 6-3, he's also an explosive athlete, a capable scorer, and an excellent defensive player. By his side, and also serving as his backup at point guard, will be senior Grayson Allen, who had an inconsistent junior year as a result of more bizarre on-court decisions and the resulting media and fan scrutiny. Despite his struggles, Allen (14.5 ppg., 3.7 rpg., 3.5 apg., 36.5% 3pt.) is still a long and extremely athletic player with a high motor and a great jump shot and will still be a likely first round pick after graduation. A second top 10 recruit, 6-6 wing Gary Trent Jr., will complete what should be the best starting perimeter in the country by the end of the year. Trent is one of the best perimeter shooters in his class and has a strong mid-range game as well. Like Duval, he is also a high end defender, insuring that the Blue Devils will again excel at defending the 3 point line (the team finished 4th in the country in 3pt% defense last season) which is particularly important in the ACC. Alex O'Connell, a 6-6 top 70 recruit, will see time at small forward; he offers similar size and a similar skill set to Luke Kennard, although he isn't quite as far along and, perhaps more than Kennard as a freshman, will need to add strength to become effective.

The most prominent member of Duke's recruiting class didn't commit until mid August, when Marvin Bagley III decided to reclassify and join the Blue Devils. Bagley's status as the clear number 1 prospect in the class of 2018 has to be taken with a grain of salt due to his early college entrance (although he is already 18), but Duke doesn't really need him to have the impact of Anthony Davis at Kentucky right away (though he does have that kind of potential) to win a national title; they simply need him to replace, and perhaps improve upon, the production provided by Jayson Tatum, Brandon Ingram, and Justice Winslow at power forward over the past few years, and that seems well within reason. Bagley's incredibly athletic at 6-11 and, while still a lean 221 pounds, he may already be stronger than Ingram will ever be; he should at least outperform those players on the boards and at the defensive end, and, while he doesn't have their range at this point, his skill facing the basket should help keep the offense moving and allow him to get his points as well. Bagley's skill and athleticism make him a strong complement to the previous most highly ranked recruit in the class, top 5 center Wendell Carter. At 6-10, 255 pounds, Carter's game bears a strong resemblance to that of Jahlil Okafor; he should dominate as a post scorer and rebounder, although he won't intimidate opponents as a shot blocker. The arrival of Bagley and Carter means that the Blue Devils don't have to be overly concerned if 6-11 sophomore Marques Bolden, a former top 10 recruit that looked lost, ineffective and poorly conditioned as a freshman, doesn't pan out. Krzyzewski also has 7-0, 270 pound junior Antonio Vrankovic available; he was significantly more effective than Bolden (he's an effective, high motor rebounder), although he may not be skilled or mobile enough for big minutes. Physically explosive 6-10 sophomore Javin DeLaurier, a top 50 recruit a year ago, played in just 12 games and produced very little beyond a respectable rebounding rate as a freshman, but he has plenty of upside and could also help off the bench. Between the three, someone should emerge to provide the Blue Devils with respectable depth in the post.

Krzyzewski's short rotations have made it difficult for the Blue Devils to remain competitive at the defensive end with foul trouble late in games over the past few years (Duke finished 147th in fg% defense last season), and that problem can only be exacerbated by the team's extreme youth, with the lone senior more likely to need the support of his teammates than they are to need support from him. Still, the starting perimeter of Duval, Allen and Trent should be excellent defensively, Bagley and Carter provide the potential for another dominant rebounding Duke squad similar to the 2015 title team, and the offense will again be one of the best in college basketball thanks to the arrival of a true, elite point guard that will be surrounded by plenty of perimeter shooters and two skilled and physically imposing frontcourt weapons. Duke could experience some growing pains early in their ACC schedule with such a young group and will need to develop some depth along the way, but with three projected top 10 picks, another projected first rounder, and two additional top 10 recruits being coached by a hopefully healthy Mike Krzyzewski, the Blue Devils again appear to have all the pieces necessary to emerge as a national title favorite by March.

December 13 pre-conference update: Marvin Bagley (21.3 ppg., 11.3 rpg.) may not have needed to be a star, but he definitely is. Marques Bolden has shown flashes of what he was projected to be (although primarily in games against Portland State and St. Francis), but Javin Delaurier has been the real impact player off the bench, taking in 5.1 rebounds in 13.8 minutes per game (and doing a little bit of everything else as well) off the bench. Between Bagley, Wendell Carter (12.6 ppg., 8.7 rpg.), and Delaurier, Krzyzewski has one of the best rebounding groups he has ever had (they are currently 3rd in the country in rebounding margin), and with most of the ACC playing small and North Carolina's freshmen big men only marginally productive the Blue Devils should dominate on the boards at both ends of the court in ACC play. Duke is also efficient at the offensive end (7th in assist to turnover ratio) and the freshmen are gradually becoming comfortable behind the arc. The problem, as demonstrated in their loss to Boston College, is in defending the 3 point line (189th in 3pt.% defense), a problem caused in part by Krzyzewski's lack of confidence in his perimeter bench. Bagley played 40 minutes in the BC game, moving to small forward and playing with two big men when the perimeter players went to the bench, which is an obvious recipe for disaster with regards to perimeter defense. Alex O'Connell played the only two full minutes off the bench from a guard; he can shoot and at 6-6 he should be able to at least run people off the 3 point line. Duke is obviously going to be in the national title picture, but O'Connell will have to be trusted to do more if the team is going to be able to avoid an NCAA Tournament upset by the first team that gets hot behind the arc.

March 2 update: This will be a very different Duke team heading into the ACC and NCAA Tournaments. The team how somehow shored up its perimeter defense (they are now all the way up to 64th in the country in 3pt% defense after struggling through the first half of the season) by switching to a zone defense, which allows Krzyzewski to keep his starters on the floor even more and simplifies the defense for a team of mostly freshmen and sophomores. With the length and mobility of Bagley, Delaurier, and Carter and a collection of future NBA players, Duke will give the ACC two legitimate NCAA Championship contenders.