The Republican 2016 presidential field includes three politicians — George Pataki, Jim Gilmore and Bob Ehrlich — who last won election when the flip phone was hot technology. Also making moves to run are John Bolton, who is best remembered as an architect of George W. Bush’s WMD strategy and has never held elected office, and Peter King, the longtime Long Island congressman who’s made his biggest headlines hitting conservatives.

And don’t forget about former Hewlett-Packard CEO and failed California senatorial candidate Carly Fiorina — another accomplished figure who’s perceived to have next to no chance of becoming the Republican standard-bearer.


Welcome to 2016’s “Why not me?” primary: a low-stakes, little-covered tussle among below-the-radar Republicans who say they could be president. After seeing other presumed has-beens like Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich become real factors in 2012, they see little downside in taking a shot.

But for the GOP, which is already wrestling with a large group of would-be contenders, the presence of these former governors and senators and prominent officials presents an extra complication. They’re trying to avoid the circus-like atmosphere, fueled by candidates desperate for attention, that tainted many of the 2012 primary debates.

The White House long shots this time have already become fixtures on the early-state circuit, particularly in New Hampshire. In interviews, some of the potential contenders shrugged off doubters who call their campaigns quixotic at best and exercises in self-promotion at worst. After all, a failed presidential campaign can still translate into book deals and TV gigs afterward.

Others were humbler, even self-deprecating, about their chances.

“I realize that it’s a long shot to be president,” said King, a former chairman of the House Committee on Intelligence. “But once you’re in that arena … you can get coverage of issues you may not otherwise get if you’re not considered as a possible presidential candidate.”

The definition of “in that arena” is debatable. The prospective candidates don’t have enough juice to be included in most presidential polls. Which begs the question: If a campaign lands in New Hampshire and no one’s there to witness it, does it make a sound?

Nevertheless, they’re driven by the possibility of an unexpectedly strong finish that vaults them into contention or showers attention on their pet issue.

Pataki, a three-term New York governor, has been pushing a lifetime lobbying ban for members of Congress. Ehrlich, the ex-governor of Maryland, hopes his work on criminal justice reform resonates. Bolton and King are pressing for a more hawkish foreign policy.

Republicans are hopeful that reforms to their presidential election calendar — a shorter primary season and fewer debates — will eliminate that circus element that damaged the party heading into 2012. The half-dozen candidates who have no chance of winning but are vying for headlines and spots on the debate stage could undercut that goal.

On Wednesday, Bush was asked whether he was nervous that the 2016 Republican primary might resemble the chaotic jumble it was in 2012 — “the cantina scene in Star Wars,” as the questioner put it. The former Florida governor said he was hopeful Republicans learned their lesson. “I think there will be some discipline,” he said.

Ryan Williams, a longtime aide to 2012 nominee Mitt Romney and former communications director of the New Hampshire GOP, noted that failed presidential candidacies can be major career boons. Williams pointed to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who parlayed a strong but unsuccessful 2008 presidential primary into a career as a pundit and radio host. Other examples include Sarah Palin, the 2012 vice presidential nominee who became a major media personality, and Herman Cain, who launched a radio channel.

“Going from kind of an obscure governor who had just left office to a media personality, that’s usually the desired route taken for one of these dark-horse candidates,” Williams said.

Pataki, for one, insists that’s not what he’s up to. Characterizing his candidacy as “probably probable,” he recently launched a leadership PAC, which can help raise money until he announces a bid.

“There’s a great sense that there are a lot of very good Republican candidates but that the field is wide open,” Pataki said in a phone interview.

Pataki, like the other dark horses, is counting on New Hampshire’s reputation as the retail politics capital of America. Voters in the first-in-the-nation presidential primary state prize face-to-face interaction with candidates, and they’ve helped make no-name contenders into national stars.

Although he’s a former Republican governor in a field full of current GOP governors with much higher profiles, Pataki is counting on his proposed lobbying ban to help him stand out.

“Every time I’ve run for office, I’ve never expected I announce and the seas part and the trumpets blare,” he said. He’s used to “starting at the bottom and working hard and working my way up.”

Ehrlich, a one-term Maryland governor who was ousted in 2006 and lost a 2010 bid to return to the job, says his interest in a presidential run is largely an accident of timing. He received an invitation to appear in the Granite State last fall from Matt Mayberry, an official with the Strafford County Republican Committee, who said in an interview that he saw Ehrlich’s book on a shelf at a Barnes & Noble last summer, flipped through it and decided that if the ex-governor was writing books, perhaps he was still interested in public life.

“Jimmy Carter, no one knew who he was, then he came up, shook hands, worked hard,” said Mayberry, who also has ties to Pataki and has been involved in inviting other candidates to New Hampshire.

For now, Ehrlich says he’s just rolling with the positive vibe. He hasn’t announced any formal steps toward a presidential bid — he has no operation, no New Hampshire network and little to lose. “It’s been very comfortable for me,” Ehrlich said. “Right now, there’s no rush, there’s no hurry, there’s no committee, there’s no fundraising.”

But he made clear that he has a “desire to audition for a more national stage.”

King and Bolton have visited New Hampshire repeatedly — King has been going regularly since 2013 — and their primary goal is to push national security issues to the forefront.

The congressman said he’s been approached by representatives for Huckabee to discuss foreign policy. And last month, a representative for Mitt Romney, who at the time was seriously mulling over another run, reached out to see whether King would discuss engaging “blue-collar conservatives,” he said.

Bolton has a super PAC and stumped for New Hampshire congressional candidates last year. Like King, he continues to visit and is in touch with prominent Republican Granite Staters like former Gov. John Sununu and former Senate candidate Scott Brown.

“My objective is to get national security at the top of the agenda,” said Bolton, a U.N. ambassador under Bush. “One way to do that is to run myself. I’m not motivated here predominantly by personal ambition.”

“The field is so large, so fluid,” Bolton added, that it could create an opportunity for him to break through.

Gilmore, the former Virginia governor, argued that he’s uniquely positioned to enter the GOP field as a onetime state executive with a foreign policy pedigree. (He has a degree in foreign policy and once chaired a congressional advisory panel on terrorism and WMDs).

“You put all those things together and I have an acute feel for this challenge,” he said.

Gilmore insists he’s not formally running yet, before recounting his busy travel schedule in New Hampshire, including a meeting with the mayor of Manchester and a visit with Sununu.

“It was fun,” he said, “It was a good time.”