Australia may be able to increase its industrial emissions by 26% by 2020 and still easily meet its Kyoto protocol targets, new analysis released at the Lima climate talks suggests.



The reason for the apparent anomaly is because it has secured a succession of advantageous deals on how land use is credited in carbon accounting rules, according to the Climate Action Tracker group.



Industrial emissions are likely to be 26% above 2000 levels in 2020, or 47–59% higher since 1990, the group claims in a policy briefing.



But the research shows that Australia will be technically able to meet its legal Kyoto target, a 5% cut on 2000 levels by 2020.



Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, part of the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) group, said: “It has become increasingly apparent that whenever Australia has talked of committing to reducing emissions, what it really means is that it will continue to increase emissions from fossil fuel and industry sources.”



Australian negotiators in Lima have been arguing against an amendment made two years ago in Doha about the exclusion of deforestation from the definition on emissions – a technical fight which could increase the emission reductions Australia needs to make by 2020 by a 2%. A decision on the issue has been deferred to June.



According to CAT, Australia uses complicated rules around the way that land-clearing is included in the greenhouse gas accounting system – known as land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) – to make it appear that cuts will be met.

Dr Louise Jeffrey, of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and part of the CAT team, said Australia was not being transparent in the way it calculated and showed these emissions.



She said: “Fully transparent data on Australian projections and estimates of future LULUCF emissions and removals are needed in order for the CAT to revise, improve and hopefully even reverse our estimates.”



The analysis said: “Australia is set to increase its energy and industry GHG emissions over the next six years by 14-20% above 2012 levels, so that by 2020 its overall energy and industry GHG emissions are likely to be 49-57% higher than in 1990. Present emission levels are approximately 31% higher than in 1990.”



CAT said during the Lima talks Australia had been working on the small print of the Kyoto protocol rules that would make it even easier for it to reach targets.



Hare said the country had been going to “considerable diplomatic effort” to “hide” its true levels of emissions.



He added: “This is just the most recent example of Australia lobbying for rules that undermine the integrity of the emissions accounting system as a whole and/or rules that carve out special exceptions to the detriment of all, but to the benefit of a few.”



The two-week UN climate talks are scheduled to close in Lima on Friday with countries working to agree on a framework upon which they can make pledges to take action on climate change.



During a speech to the conference yesterday, foreign minister Julie Bishop said Australia had “an ambitious 2020 target” which she said represented a cut of 19% from business as usual.



“Our target is comparable to those taken by other developed countries,” she said.

