The capture of eastern Aleppo by Syrian rebels in July 2012 was a severe blow to the regime of Bashar al-Assad early in the country’s civil war. Ever since, the brutal, attritional warfare wrought on Syria’s second city has served as a microcosm of the wider conflict.

Russia’s pro-regime intervention in late September 2015 turned the military tide, allowing Assad to prioritise the isolation and eventual recapture of opposition-held districts. These already devastated areas now stand on the brink of a renewed offensive as Moscow tries to force a decisive victory for Assad while the US is preoccupied with its presidential election.

This objective is ambitious – rebel fighters know the territory intimately and have had years to prepare for a street-by-street assault. But Moscow and Damascus know that a rebel defeat would be a psychological blow from which their cause might not recover. Aleppo is their last urban stronghold, and relegating the rebellion to a rural insurgency is a major aim of the regime.

Using highly granular data tracking nearly 1,500 locations in Aleppo, it is possible to show how the stranglehold on the east of the city has tightened since Russia’s intervention; and how even ceasefires appear to have been used strategically, with hostilities pausing only when the regime reached important waypoints.

Early October saw the familiar pattern of airstrikes, regime gains and then a pause

Since the collapse of the September ceasefire, regime forces backed by Russian airstrikes have continued their assault on Aleppo’s eastern districts. The main theatres have been to the north of the rebel-held redoubt, where the regime continues to consolidate its control of roads which might be used to resupply the rebels, and in the south, where the regime has retaken an outlying district and resisted attempts by the rebels to link up with their allies in the western suburbs.



A three-day ceasefire in mid-October was not long enough to evacuate civilians, but the intervening period has been relatively calm. The rebels sought to use this period to break the siege by shelling government-held areas of western Aleppo. Regime forces have fought back and limited the rebel gains, and all the while the Russians have signalled that they are preparing for a major offensive. A large Russian taskforce led by the country’s sole sole aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, has been sailing towards Syria, and a Russian deadline for people to abandon eastern Aleppo expired on Friday night.

September’s brief truce came only after pro-regime forces encircled the rebels

The nationwide ceasefire that began on 12 September was supposed to help deliver aid to besieged rebel-held areas and pave the way for an ambitious US-Russian air campaign against Islamic State and other extremist groups. Fighting did briefly subside but no aid made it through and the fragile truce collapsed on 19 September when a UN aid convoy was destroyed by an airstrike widely believed to have come from Russian aircraft. Pro-regime and Russian forces resumed airstrikes with unprecedented ferocity and small territorial gains were made towards the end of the month.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Syrian government forces walk through the Handarat refugee camp captured in September 2016. Photograph: George Ourfalian/AFP/Getty Images

These built on the main advance made early in September when the regime retook a south-eastern district that had briefly given the rebels a supply line after they captured it in the summer. Breaking that link restored the siege of rebel-held districts, isolating 275,000 people who had been deprived of aid since July. The ceasefire froze this situation on the ground at a time advantageous to the Assad regime.

The ceasefire in late February was also preceded by key gains for the regime

UN-brokered peace talks opened in Geneva in early February just as pro-regime forces began a major offensive north-west of Aleppo that was backed by the heaviest airstrikes since the Russian intervention began. The talks were quickly suspended amid anger from representatives of the opposition at having to negotiate while areas under rebel control were bombarded.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Syrian army tanks drive through a village north of Aleppo in February 2016 as the Assad regime moved to cut rebel supply routes. Photograph: George Ourfalian/AFP/Getty Images

Diplomatic efforts continued with an attempt to distinguish territory held by the former al-Qaida affiliate Jabhat Fateh al-Sham from that held by non-extremist fighters whose buy-in was seen as crucial to a durable ceasefire. Moderate opposition groups were reluctant to disentangle from Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, which many fighters viewed as an effective military ally that may be able to protect them from airstrikes.

A Russia and US-backed truce was in place by the end of February, by which point the regime had already significantly weakened rebel positions. Hostilities paused with conditions favourable to the regime, its gains in the countryside north of Aleppo cutting vital supply lines to Turkey.

At least 150,000 people fled the regime’s February offensive north of Aleppo

Entire settlements were emptied as pro-regime forces moved to eliminate the opposition’s strategic depth in countryside between Aleppo and A’zaz. There were also significant displacements from territory that did not change hands as relentless Russian airstrikes caused chaos and panic. Aid organisations were forced to withdraw from hospitals close to the frontline.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Aid is distributed at the Bab al-Salam Turkey-Syria border crossing to where some 20,000 Syrian refugees fled in February 2016. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Displacements were also seen north of the regime’s advance, in towns that passed from rebel to Kurdish control. On occasion, the rebels and the Kurds did fight over territory. The majority of refugees were heading north to the Turkish border despite Turkey’s refusal to allow refugees to cross the frontier.

Similar displacements were seen when Russian airstrikes began in October 2015

A military defeat for Assad’s demoralised army was plausible before Moscow’s decisive intervention in September 2015. Russian air power halted the rebel momentum, shored-up the regime’s coastal strongholds in the west, and allowed pro-Assad forces to launch several offensives of their own.

From mid-October, airstrikes on rebel positions around Aleppo were stepped up, allowing Isis to gain rebel territory in the east, despite Russia’s initial claim that their intervention was aimed solely at defeating the jihadis. The regime captured territory alongside the main highway to Damascus that gave them a base for a later push into rebel-held districts from the south-west. Whole towns and villages fled the fighting, with some of those displaced moving into opposition-held areas within the city.



