IT WAS a narrow victory. New Zealand's rugby team, the All Blacks, pipped France by eight points to seven in the Rugby World Cup final in Auckland on October 23rd. The triumph, in the only sport that matters to most Kiwis, ended a 24-year jinx that had seen the All Blacks fail to lift the trophy since the first tournament in 1987. From north to south, celebrations erupted across the land.

With an election scheduled for November 26th, John Key, prime minister of the centre-right coalition government, will be relieved. An All Blacks loss would have topped off a horrible year. Last November, a coal mine explosion killed 29 miners. In February, an earthquake devastated Christchurch, the second-largest city, killing 181 people. On October 5th, a cargo ship struck a reef off the North Island's east coast, spilling 300 tonnes of oil onto pristine beaches.

The international recession has been tough as well, with a soaring Kiwi dollar hitting agricultural exports and tourism hard. Inflation (at 4.6%) and unemployment (at 6.5%) have proved stubborn.

Still, since the government was elected in 2008, polls have on balance shown approval for Mr Key's National Party. A poll in the New Zealand Herald newspaper early this month showed National's support at 55%, enough to govern alone with a 13-seat majority in the 120-member parliament. Mr Key's folksy charm, although lambasted by critics as empty of substance, plays well with the public.

The National Party is helped by the fact that Labour, the main opposition party, has its own problems. Some of its policy announcements have been shrewd: reducing sales taxes on fresh fruit and vegetables to appeal to struggling householders, and a brave proposal for a capital-gains tax, once political poison in a property-boosted economy. But Phil Goff, its wonkish veteran leader, has struggled against the charismatic Mr Key. The same Herald poll showed Labour's support at only 28%.

Labour's election campaign emphasises the likely pain ahead in a National Party second term. In September, two international ratings agencies downgraded New Zealand's credit rating because of its high level of private-sector debt. Mr Key's flippant response was widely criticised. A perception of a sluggish government reaction to the oil spill was also jumped upon by Labour.

On top of that, the prime minister's coalition partners are in trouble, whereas a possible Labour partner, the Green Party, is enjoying increased support. An absolute majority for one party is unprecedented under the partly proportional electoral system New Zealand has used since 1996. So if Labour could cobble together a coalition, it could yet pull off a surprise. Like the All Blacks, Mr Key may find victory harder than expected.