New data released this week confirm one of the biggest problems facing Kentucky's public schools: many high school diplomas earned by students are relatively meaningless.

That's because thousands of Kentucky students donning caps and gowns each spring don't actually have the skills they need to succeed — whether their next step involves going to college or getting a job.

In fact, though Kentucky has one of the highest graduation rates in the country, nearly 19,000 students in the class of 2018, or 40 percent, left high school without meeting the state's readiness benchmarks.

Everyone involved — from the schools themselves, to prospective colleges and employers — agree that the problem exists. But not everyone agrees on how to solve it.

The issue will come to a head next week, when the Kentucky Board of Education considers whether to approve new high school graduation requirements.

Some of the more controversial aspects of the proposal include:

Instituting a high-stakes 10th-grade math and reading test

Dropping Algebra II as a required course

Making students prove they're prepared for college or a job before they can earn a diploma

Interim Education Commissioner Wayne Lewis, who is recommending the new requirements, said the changes would give students more flexibility to pursue their own career interests. Requiring students to pass a "foundational" exam, meanwhile, would prevent graduates from continuing to leave high school without basic math and reading skills, he said.

"We cannot continue to issue high school diplomas to students we know have not been prepared for success after high school," Lewis said.

But the proposal is receiving pushback from some who charge that the changes could have unintended consequences.

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Among the concerns: Students of color or from low-income households will be steered toward low-wage jobs, rather than a four-year college degree.

"Ideally, students will be prepared by the K-12 system for both college and career so they have options," said Rachel Metz, an analyst for The Education Trust, a Washington, D.C.-based organization that advocates for vulnerable students. "But the proposed change essentially says that schools don’t have to prepare students for college in order to graduate them."

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The criticism reflects a longstanding philosophical divide about the duty of the country's public schools: Should they ensure all students have their eyes set on a four-year college degree, and in doing so, potentially welcome more first-generation college students into the fold? Or should they instead guide some students directly to the workforce?

Changes to Kentucky's graduation requirements have been in the works for a while, with the first steps of the process beginning under former Education Commissioner Stephen Pruitt. The timeline sped up this summer under Lewis' leadership, with many of the proposed changes set to affect incoming freshmen next fall, if approved.

Mary Gwen Wheeler, who served as state board chairwoman before her term expired in April, said the state is right to take an aggressive approach.

"Raising standards, raising the bar, making sure that kids are supported to graduate with what they need to be successful, is very much the right goal for our state," Wheeler said. "The question is, what’s the best tool?"

Currently, Kentucky students must earn a minimum of 22 credits in a range of subjects to graduate. Under Lewis' proposal, students would have fewer mandates for exactly which courses they need to take.

For example, students right now have to take English I, II, III and IV. If the state board approves the changes, students would be required to take English I and II as "foundational" courses but could then choose two other "personalized" English classes that support their college or career goals.

Linda Tyree, president of the Kentucky School Counselor Association, said such changes would encourage schools to think more about the opportunities and experiences they're providing to kids.

"Instead of compliance or a check box of credits, the revisions potentially allow students to focus on their passion and to have experiences that prepare them for the next step in their careers," said Tyree, a school counselor in Morgantown.

Will a high-stakes test help?

Though students would have more flexibility when it comes to class choice, they would face a stringent new measure: a high-stakes math and reading exam.

If they don't pass, they wouldn't graduate unless they successfully appeal to their local superintendent.

Students would take the exam in the 10th grade and be given multiple attempts to pass if needed. The exam would measure 10th-grade "competency" in reading and math, according to the state.

The state currently uses the ACT college entrance exam to measure students' math and reading proficiency. All students take the test in the 11th grade.

During the 2017-18 school year, 45 percent of students were considered proficient in reading, according to ACT benchmarks set by the state. Students fared worse in math, with 38 percent demonstrating proficiency.

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Jim Lancaster, board president for Jefferson Community and Technical College, said he supports having an exit exam.

“I think it's very important we keep in mind the problem we’re trying to solve," he said. "We have too many students coming out of high school without the skills they need."

As evidence, Lancaster pointed to the number of students needing to take remedial math and reading classes, even at the state's community colleges.

According to the state's Council on Postsecondary Education, about one in three high school graduates are not ready for college-level work, requiring them to take remedial classes that may not earn college credit. That extra time and money can add up, with some students eventually giving up on college altogether.

If the state does institute an exit exam, Kentucky's high school graduation rate is expected to drop sharply. And that has some concerned.

Brigitte Blom Ramsey, executive director of the Prichard Committee, said that when the state pushes for better results, it should do so "without punitive measures that students pay the cost for."

A 2016 study from the University of Texas at Austin found that exit exams rarely benefit lower-achieving students and that often has a disproportionate effect on students of color and those from low-income households.

Instead of finding joy at school by pursuing classes "where they have talents and interest," low-performers may find their class schedules packed with math and reading remediation, Blom Ramsey said.

Testing pressures could spill over to all classes, she said, with teachers abandoning deeper learning experiences in favor of preparing for tests, she said.

Lewis, however, insists an exit exam is necessary.

"The fact that so many of Kentucky’s high school graduates have to take remedial courses once they go to college is proof that we have been giving students credit for content they never mastered," he said.

Lewis told the Courier Journal late Thursday that the state was revising its proposal based on feedback from superintendents, and the first class that would have to take the exit exam would enter high school in the fall of 2020.

The debate over Algebra II

Officials from Kentucky's largest public universities said they support the state's desire to make its high school diplomas more meaningful. But they also expressed concerns.

Christine Harper, associate provost for enrollment management for the University of Kentucky, said the changes could result in fewer college-bound students at a time when the state is already facing shifting demographics.

"Our state over the next several years will confront flat or declining numbers of college-age students," Harper said. "Our workforce needs more college graduates for the workforce just as it needs more skill-ready workers in other areas, such as advanced manufacturing."

Jenny Sawyer, executive director of admissions for the University of Louisville, said she is worried about the state's proposal to drop Algebra II as a required class. Under the changes, students would have to take at least one math class each year; the classes must include Algebra I and Geometry, but students could choose the other two.

"I believe it could lead to some very damaging outcomes for our students and for our community and for the Commonwealth," she said. "... Whenever (course) decisions take people down a less rigorous road, they have some of the doors to the highest-paid jobs in our economy closed to them."

Sawyer said the changes "are opening the door for students to be tracked," with some deemed college-worthy while others are told they are not.

In her experience speaking to families about why their students didn't get into U of L, Sawyer said, parents of all income levels are often unaware that course selection in high school can have long-term implications. Dropping Algebra II as a requirement could make the problem worse, she said.

Blom Ramsey, of the Prichard Committee, also expressed concern about the proposed change.

"Mathematical and thinking skills are developed through exposure to Algebra II," she said. "If we want to support a highly skilled workforce for the future. ... We need to continue to maintain higher levels of mathematics in our requirements."

But not everyone is sold on Algebra II.

For more than a decade, states across the country have debated whether the course is necessary.

Florida dropped the requirement in 2010. Texas followed suit in 2014.

As it stands, Kentucky is one of just 16 states that require Algebra II, according to statutes compiled by the Education Commission of the States.

Kentucky added the course to its graduation requirements in 2006, under former Gov. Ernie Fletcher, a Republican. Students in the class of 2012 were the first to be affected by the change.

Research shows students that take advanced math classes in high school are more likely to earn a four-year college degree, earn higher wages over their lifetimes and enjoy greater job satisfaction.

But Algebra II detractors argue that students can gain problem-solving and other critical-thinking skills in math classes, such as applied statistics, that better prepare students for scenarios they'll face in the real world.

Some colleges are even dropping the requirement, citing it as an unnecessary barrier for low-income students who often drop out before passing the course.

Lancaster, the CEO, said it's the right move for Kentucky's high schools, too.

"I'm in no way saying it's not important to know Algebra II, but if you’re not going to get there, we’re just pretending," said Lancaster, the CEO. "Just by requiring they take the class doesn't mean they get it."

Graduating career ready

By 2020, more than 60 percent of jobs in Kentucky will require some level of post-secondary education, according to the Center on Education and the Workforce at Georgetown University.

KentuckianaWorks Executive Director Michael Gritton said there's a lot of enthusiasm among employers for increasing the number of students who graduate career ready, but that "the devil is in the details."

"I think we have to give kids multiple ways to show competence and not just make it an up-or-down test," Gritton said.

Jefferson County Public Schools has expanded its Academies of Louisville program to address students' transition needs. The joint initiative with the local business community provides students with hands-on work experience and training.

The district says the academies are helping students become both college and career ready.

Under the state's proposed graduation requirements, students would only have to demonstrate one type of readiness. But if students fail to do so, they would be denied a diploma. In Jefferson County alone, nearly 3,400 students would have found themselves in that situation last year, state data show.

Lewis said he knows the state's graduation rate will drop should the board approve his proposal. But he sees it as a necessary step.

"If we allow any student to graduate from high school without foundational math or reading skills, without the ability to successfully seek additional education, training or go into the workforce, we have failed that child," Lewis said.

Wheeler, who is now the director of the 55,000 Degrees program in Louisville, which advocates kids go to college, cautioned the state to "take the time to get this right."

Under the state's new accountability system, high schools are already being judged on how well they're preparing students. But students shouldn't have to bear the burden, too, should their schools fail to prepare them, she said.

"If you don't have a high school diploma, you're destined to minimum wage," Wheeler said.

"What has actually been proposed here is a very big change," she said.

Mandy McLaren: 502-582-4525; mmclaren@courier-journal.com; Twitter: @mandy_mclaren. Support strong local journalism by subscribing today: courier-journal.com/mandym.