Old Farmer's Almanac predicts a warm Tennessee winter. But how often is it right?

Dustin Barnes | Nashville Tennessean

Winter is coming. And if the new 2019 Old Farmer's Almanac is right, then it's going to be a warm and wet season compared to the compared to Tennessee's average temps and precipitation.

But does the publication usually get it right with its seasonal predictions? Let's look at some past editions to see if the forecasts and the facts match up.

Summer 2018

Prediction: The 2018 Old Farmer's Almanac suggested the summer months would be a rainy scorcher for Tennessee, with the hottest periods coming in early and mid-July and in mid-August.

Reality (so far): This summer has been a little wetter compared to past years, said Faith Borden, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Nashville. But the precipitation levels are not out of the ordinary.

Meanwhile, temperatures have not hit the 100-degree mark in Music City so far this year, Borden said. Other than a few warmer days in July, this summer has been average at best.

Score: 1 out of 2

Winter 2017-18

Prediction: The 2018 OFA said it would be a cold and snowy winter across Tennessee.

Reality: There was definitely snow in Middle Tennessee in the first part of 2018. But winter temps were above average, according to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information.

Score: 1 out of 2

Winter 2018: Middle Tennessee wakes up to surprise dusting of snow

Winter 2016-17

Prediction: The 2017 OFA foretold of a mild and dry winter.

Reality: The weather data shows the average temperature across Tennessee hit a record high between October 2016 and March 2017. However, precipitation levels were below average during that same period.

Score: 1 out of 2

Winter 2015-16

Prediction: OFA said it would be a cold and snowy Tennessee winter.

Reality: Temperatures were "much above average," that winter, per the NCEI weather data. But in January 2016, Middle Tennessee went through the biggest snowstorm in 13 years at the time, and Nashville had 8 inches of snow.

Score: 1 out of 2

How much snow fell in January 2016: Parts of Middle Tennessee get more than 13 inches in snowstorm

Last year's prediction: Harsh winter in store for Tennessee, says unreliable Farmer's Almanac