Why Democratic candidates for Michigan governor want Detroit votes

Kathleen Gray | Detroit Free Press

With less than five weeks before the Aug. 7 primary election, votes in the city of Detroit are up for grabs among the Democratic candidates for governor.

Former Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer, former Detroit Health Department Director Abdul El-Sayed and retired businessman Shri Thanedar aren't taking anything for granted, especially since absentee ballots were mailed to voters last week.

In an effort to reach city voters, all three have campaign offices in the Motor City. They are all advertising heavily in the metro Detroit media market now and they’re returning to the city repeatedly to meet with voters.

The candidates don’t need to outright win Detroit to emerge victorious in August, but the primary winner will need to energize the city’s reliable Democratic base of voters to ensure a victory in November.

“In the primary, you don’t need to necessarily win the city because of low voter turnout in Detroit, but in the general election, you need it," said Detroit political consultant Mario Morrow. ”It’s always played a very important role for Democrats, but Detroit voters are becoming a lot more sophisticated and a lot more independent. They're not following the traditional slate and not doing what major endorsers are telling them to do."

Detroit’s turnout, especially in primary elections, has been dismal. In the 2014 primary election for governor, turnout was 8.2 percent and in 2010, the last time the race had no incumbent, the turnout was 15.2 percent and 95 percent of that vote went to Democratic candidates. The Detroit vote for governor in Detroit in 2010 accounted for 77,631 of the 1,577,206 votes cast — or 4.6 percent of the state’s vote.

The turnout has ticked up for the November elections in gubernatorial years: it was 31.4 percent of the city's voters in both 2010 and 2014 and while Gov. Rick Snyder won both contests, of the 173,757 city voters who cast ballots in 2010 and 163,348 in 2014, more than 90 percent of that vote went to the Democrats.

That's a margin that Democrats have to maintain and grow if they want to win in 2018, Morrow said.

"The Detroit vote is very important for the Democrats, but the candidates are having a very hard time reading the vote because voters have become much more astute and they’re analyzing candidates more closely." he said.

Chiquita McKenzie, of Westland was a good example of that. After attending two gubernatorial forums in Detroit, including one on Monday evening at the Northwest Activities Center, she still hasn't made up her mind.

"We're at the point where we need to have follow-up questions instead of just hearing statements being made," she said. "I need to know how they're going to do what they want to do if, in the past 15 years, it hasn't been done. What makes tomorrow different?

"Don't just give me bits and pieces. We're getting too close to the primary. Now, I need details."

Even though Whitmer has gained the endorsement of nearly all the major labor organizations and has the support of Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who has been accompanying her to campaign stops in the last month, she has been having trouble igniting a fire of enthusiasm from Detroit voters.

Judy Neal, who was born and raised in Detroit but now lives in Redford, said traditional campaign strategies aren't enough.

"You've got to be out there and do the work, knocking on doors and calling people because our old model of the political game and endorsements doesn't work," she said after the forum Monday. "I look at endorsements but they don't make my decision for me."

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So left in a void, Detroiters have turned to what they can see and hear.

“It’s all about the amount of money Shri has spent on advertising. And over the past two weeks or so, I’ve started to see a strong field operation and a lot of his campaign signs in the city,” said Jonathan Kinloch, chairman of the 13th Congressional District Democratic Party organization. “And he’s tapped into a lot of Detroit folks to try and drum up his name.”

Recent polls have shown that Detroiters are paying attention, at least to television advertising, giving Thanedar their support. He is spending his personal fortune to win the seat, putting nearly $6 million of his own money into the campaign and, since January, he has spent more than $2 million of that on a series of clever television commercials to boost his name identification.

“And seniors have gotten the opportunity to know (Thanedar's) name," Detroit political consultant Jamaine Dickens said. "Many of them didn't even know that Gretchen Whitmer was on the ballot until they got their absentee ballot."

As a result, while Whitmer, who didn't start her television ad campaign until late June, has a commanding lead statewide — 40 percent to 19 percent for Thanedar and 17 percent for El-Sayed, according to the latest poll taken in late June for MIRS-News — she is lagging far behind Thanedar among Detroit voters — 55 percent for Thanedar, 16 percent or El-Sayed and 12 percent for Whitmer, Target Insyght pollster Ed Sarpolus, although the number of voters from the city is a much smaller number than the 800 people statewide who were surveyed.

“Thanedar has spent the most time and money in the city and you’ve got more people who want Shri to show up at their events,” Sarpolus said. “The comments I’m hearing in Detroit is that Whitmer’s been invisible in the city.”

But a check of the public schedules for the campaigns shows that Whitmer and El-Sayed have spent much more time in Detroit in the last two months than Thanedar. And both have begun door-knocking operations out of the city.

And all three, along with Bill Cobbs, who failed to make the ballot but is running a write-in campaign, showed up for the gubernatorial forum Monday night hosted by the 13th and 14th Congressional District organizations, the Michigan Democratic Party Black Caucus and the Detroit Council of Baptist Pastors.

It's one of many that have been held for the Democratic candidates in the last year in the city. But on Monday, all the candidates acknowledged that Detroit was a crucial constituency — and not only during an election cycle.

“If you want turnout in Detroit, you need people who are committed to Detroit,” El-Sayed told the crowd of more than 200 people at the Northwest Activities Center, reminding the crowd that he helped rebuild the Detroit Health Department after the city’s bankruptcy.

Whitmer said Detroiters have the same kitchen table worries as voters across the state.

“People see a lot of cranes in the air downtown, but there are miles of neighborhoods filled with people who need good schools, clean and affordable water, good jobs and a way to get to those jobs,” she said. “That’s the message that turns people out. That’s what separates Democrats from Republicans.”

And Thanedar said that Detroiters have been taken for granted for far too long by politicians who only come into the city at election time.

“I have the pleasure to have three different offices in the city of Detroit,” he said. “And I’ve hired more African-American staff than any other candidate.”

The three are also doing far more in Detroit than the four Republicans running for governor: Attorney General Bill Schuette, Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, state Sen. Patrick Colbeck and Saginaw Township physician Jim Hines.

None of them have offices in the city. And only Calley and Hines have begun television ad campaigns in the Detroit media market, although a super PAC formed to support Schuette's candidacy has been airing ads in metro Detroit.

The three Democrats also discussed issues of particular importance to Detroit voters at the forum, including the astronomical cost of auto insurance in the city, race relations and restoring mental health services after years of disinvestment.

Whitmer said it was a testament to the Democratic Party that the four candidates for governor at the forum represented far more diversity — a Muslim, an Indian immigrant, an African- American and a woman — than the Republican Party, where four white men are running for the job.

“And the governor should have fired the Michigan State Police director after she posted those racist things on her Facebook page,” she said, referring to MSP director Kriste Kibbey Etue, who was docked five day’s pay after sharing a post that called NFL players who kneel during the national anthem “anti-American degenerates.”

Both El-Sayed and Thanedar said that since the election of Donald Trump as president, people of color have been marginalized.

“We need a leader who understands what it means to be marginalized because of the color of their skin and by how they pray,” said El-Sayed, a Muslim from Shelby Township.

As an immigrant from India, Thanedar said, “Donald Trump says that I don’t matter.”

The crowd at the Detroit forum had the most enthusiastic reactions for Whitmer and El-Sayed, saving polite applause for Thanedar and Cobbs.

For Neal, the forum represented a turning point.

“I’ve liked Abdul El-Sayed since the first time I saw him speak last year. I’m a progressive, but I just don’t think he’ll win in August,” she said. “I think Gretchen brought it home tonight. I saw that fight in her, which has been missing a little bit. So now I’m thinking more strategically. … I’m ready to put my energy behind Gretchen and help her win.”

Keith Williams, chairman of the Michigan Democratic Party’s Black Caucus, said the caucus isn’t endorsing before the primary election, but saw that Whitmer was becoming more assertive and forceful during the forum and that Thanedar’s early money and hiring of key Detroit activists was helping him in the African-American community.

"He's got some black folks leaning his way. He got the people he thought could persuade other people," Williams said. "Gretchen was a little more prepared for tonight. She's trying to get her legs for the race."

The last day to register for the Aug. 7 primary is Monday.

Contact Kathleen Gray: 313-223-4430, kgray99@freepress.com or on Twitter @michpoligal.