New confirmed cases of COVID-19 dropped to four Friday in San Joaquin County after four consecutive days of double digit growth.

Friday was the second day in a row there were no new deaths as well as the fifth in the last seven days with no one in the county succumbing to the coronavirus. The county death toll stands at 14 and confirmed cases at 257 as of 5 p.m. Friday.

Based on confirmed and reported cases tallied by the San Joaquin County Health Department in the seven-day period ending at 9 a.m. Friday there were three deaths and 68 new cases.

Manteca saw 13 new cases to increase to 42. Lathrop had two new cases with the running total at 13.

There were 38 additional cases in Stockton to bring the number in that city to 130. Tracy now has 36 cases after 12 were identified during the past week. Lodi added three cases to bring the total to 21.

San Joaquin County has been averaging 11 new cases a day since March 20.

Officials stressed true numbers are not known as most cases are not tested. Even though Ripon and Escalon have no confirmed cases, it was noted by a health department spokesperson that there is a certainty there are cases given testing is far from universal. Any relaxation of social distancing could easily create more serious problems.

The data confirms the contention of Dr. Maggie Park, the county’s top public health officer, that the move to aggressive social distancing is flattening the pandemic’s impact on San Joaquin County’s medical system as well as the heath of residents.

Percentagewise, more people under 49 were listed among the confirmed cases this past week including the first county resident 17 years or younger.

Fifty-one more COVID-19 deaths were recorded in California Friday to bring the total to 598. There were another 1,169 cases to push the confirmed case number to 21,381.

Nationally, 2,056 people died Friday — a new single day record — to bring the total to 18,849. There are now more than 500,000 confirmed cases in the United States.

Pandemic expected to peak

on May 30 in San Joaquin County

The hospitalizations are expected to peak in San Joaquin County at 299 on May 30.

Without social distancing the peak was projected to hit on April 30 with 768 new COVID-19 cases requiring hospital admissions in a single day.

The projected number of daily intensive care unit admissions would peak at 90 on May 30 instead of 230 on April 30.

Social distancing also means the peak number of coronavirus patients that will be required to go on ventilators in a given day will be at 60 on May 30 instead of 154 on April 30.

Public health officials say that models shows social distancing is working but even with the flattening of the curve, hospitalizations will likely require makeshift hospital space.

The county data shows the current death rate from COVID-19 in San Joaquin County based on confirmed cases is 5.5 percent, down from 6.6 percent last week. That does not mean 5.5 percent of everyone that tests positive for the coronavirus will die. It simply reflects the mortality rate among the confirmed cases to date.

Manteca, Lathrop, and Ripon officials are again reminding people that the Centers for Disease Control indicates that people can transmit the disease to others before they show symptoms or without getting sick. It is why they are becoming even more aggressive at enforcing the governor’s orders for store closures and social distancing.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com