NBC and the Wall Street Journal have released a new poll that hints that this mid-term election is more likely to follow the template of past mid-terms where the president’s party loses some seats than it is a wave election like 1994, 2006, 2010, or 2014. These are the takeaways from the polls.

Voter enthusiasm is up in every demographic.

From https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-wsj-poll-democrats-hold-nine-point-advantage-midterm-elections-n922266

The difference between GOP and Democrat enthusiasm is statistical noise.

Issues favor the GOP.

Forty-three percent of registered voters say the GOP better handles the economy, while 28 percent pick the Democrats; the GOP held a 14-point edge on this question in August. Republicans also hold the advantage on trade (R+17), handling the Supreme Court nomination process (R+3) and changing how Washington works (R+1). Democrats, meanwhile, have the advantage on looking out for women’s interests (D+29), health care (D+18), looking out for the middle class (D+8) and immigration (D+4). Asked which one or two issues would be the most important factor in deciding their vote, 38 percent said the economy and jobs; 31 percent said health care, 23 percent said changing how things work; and 22 percent each said looking out for the middle class and immigration.

I would argue that the GOP leads on issues people vote on–like the economy. And two of the issues that people report as important to their vote, health care and immigration, are nebulous. In other words, immigration is important in my vote but not in a pro-Democrat kind of way.

Trump approval hits all-time high.

From https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-wsj-poll-democrats-hold-nine-point-advantage-midterm-elections-n922266

Trump’s job rating among registered voters stands at 47 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove — up from 44 percent approve, 52 percent disapprove a month ago. That’s his highest rating as president in the NBC/WSJ poll.

If the Democrats are trying to make this election a referendum on Trump, that might not be a strong selling point

Lots of interesting stuff in the crosstabs. Despite NBC headlining the story NBC/WSJ Poll: Democrats hold 9-point advantage for midterm elections the findings are a lot less cheerful for the Democrats

NBC/WSJ Poll: 36% of voters have a positive view of Republicans compared to 35% who say the same of Democrats. That is something you'd never know watching the news these days. — Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) October 21, 2018

NBC/WSJ Poll – Which party do you trust on the issues? Looking out for middle class: D+8 (lowest Dem lead in poll history)

Dealing with economy: R+15 (biggest GOP lead in poll history)

Health care: D+18 (ties biggest Dem lead since 2008)

Protecting America with trade: R+17 — Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) October 21, 2018

In new WSJ/NBC poll, Republican Party has slightly higher positives than Democratic Party; negatives equal; change from last month. pic.twitter.com/Q8MzAcYvqi — Byron York (@ByronYork) October 21, 2018

In sum: 1) D's +9 in national generic ballot

2) In House battlegrounds generic ballot tied

3) Trump approval rating highest of presidency

4) GOP largest lead on economy in poll history Those do not sound like the components of a "blue wave." https://t.co/CZMK6qSeOY — Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) October 21, 2018

If the battleground polling quoted by Tom Bevan is correct, the D+9 generic ballot is more of an indication of the vote in areas that are already dark Blue rather than a leading indicator of how the House races will turn out.

On the whole, this is an excellent poll for the GOP less than three weeks from the midterms.

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