The White House announced last week that Obamacare sign-ups reached the 6 million mark .

The milestone, reached days before today’s deadline for picking a plan, has some analysts and economists saying that the Obama administration’s initial goal of signing up 7 million people this year is now within reach. People who try to sign up by Monday but get held up with technical issues will get an extension. And with just days to go, Obamacare supporters are promoting the law — and highlighting the deadline — through emails, BuzzFeed and other means.

Also see: Obamacare reaches 6 million mark; can it get to 7 million by Monday?

It will be weeks before the government releases more detailed enrollment figures, but a look at the most recent state data available shows that the enrollment picture isn’t equal across the map. “A handful of states have done great,” says Katherine Hempstead, the senior program officer for the coverage team at the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, a philanthropy dedicated to health care. “But there are some states that are really not getting much traction at all.”

State-by-state targets, detailed in an internal memo from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in September, before the open enrollment period began, are not the final metric of the law’s success. (Some states that have had decent enrollment, like Kentucky, may not meet the aggressive enrollment goals they set before the enrollment period started.) But comparing actual enrollment to those initial goals shows that the law may not be reaching as many people as initially expected in its first year.

White House gives insurance-enrollment extension

State-run exchanges have had better luck overall enrolling people, with the 16 states that are partly or fully running their own exchanges signing up 20.3% of eligible Americans, compared with 12.4% for the states using the federally run exchange, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation pointed out in a brief released Tuesday. (The group attributed that disparity mainly to the technical issues that plagued HealthCare.gov early in the enrollment period.)

Some states are thriving. In Connecticut, enrollment has been so strong officials are looking to license their exchange software to other states and could announce the first such deal as early as next week, says Kevin J. Counihan, the chief executive of the Connecticut exchange. Enrollment is picking up in the final week, with about 4,000 people signing up on Monday, roughly double the number of signups the state typically sees in one day. Counihan says enrollment has been helped by two storefronts offering in-person assistance. And he says the website has worked fairly well because the state kept the website simple. “We created a Ford Focus instead of a Ferrarri,” he told MarketWatch Tuesday. “That’s one of the things we clearly learned from last year, that less is more.”

California leads the state exchanges in terms of the number of enrollees, with 868,936 people picking plans by March 1. That robust enrollment could be due to the state’s fairly smooth rollout of its insurance exchange, combined with strong political support for the Affordable Care Act and programs that reach out to Latinos and other minorities throughout the state, says Larry Levitt, senior vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation. New York signed up 244,618 people over that same time period, beating projections of 174,400. “If a state exchange got its computer system running okay, it tended to do quite well at enrolling people,” says Levitt.

But some states running their own exchanges are also among those struggling the most. Maryland, for instance, is thinking about abandoning its online exchange and partnering with HealthCare.gov after a troubled enrollment period plagued with technical issues. And in Massachusetts, where most people are already required to have health insurance, officials have struggled to get their online exchange to meet federal standards. Last week, the state fired CGI, the contractor that created the state’s online marketplace. Through March 1, Massachusetts had signed up 12,965 people, only 6% of the enrollees the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services initially expected to have by the end of February.

Meanwhile, the 36 states that used the federal exchange “are much more tightly clustered,” says Hempstead. States with robust outreach efforts and a high need for insurance aid, like Florida, have seen stronger enrollment, she says. Florida had the second highest number of enrollees through March 1 — following California — with 442,087 picking plans by that date.

To be sure, the total number of people who sign up for insurance by next Monday may not be as important as how many healthy people joined the ranks. Insurers in states that don’t sign up enough healthy people may need to raise premiums to cover medical bills incurred by sick customers. And that ratio will ultimately be based on the mix of people who purchase insurance plans in each state, not on the overall pool of people who sign up nationwide.

And states that have seen enrollment get off to a rough start may have something else working in their favor: time. Some states, like Maryland and Nevada, are giving people more time to sign up if they’re held up by technical issues as long as they start the process by March 31. And some states with troublesome exchanges may make fixes before the next open enrollment period starts on Nov. 15. “The success of this program I think will be mentioned in multiple years,” says Dan Mendelson, chief executive of Avalere Health, a health-care advisory firm based in Washington, D.C. “Not just in one year.”