Tonight the BBC broadcast an edition of Panorama which, with remarkable foresight given the tendency of the media to merely commentate on the present, seeks to address the question of overpopulation in the UK. Up here in Edinurgh overpopulation is not such an issue as most of the UK’s migrant population concentrates itself in the South East or West Midlands, areas which are also worst affected by babies being born to existing large populations in these areas due to the inevitable tendency of living things to follow a pattern of exponential growth. The Office of National Statistics says that the population will push 70m people within the next two decades which is a frightening thought given that that growth will once again be concentrated in England’s already overcrowded urban areas, meaning that many of the infrastructure projects and housing schemes currently underway will simply have their capacity sucked up by population growth. The more people there are the faster the population grows and the more you need to build to keep them housed, fed and in employment. Bearing in mind that Britain is already pushing its boundaries with regard to the provision of natural resources and power generation, another 10m Britons would be an absolute catastrophe in environmental terms, not to mention the negative impact on the country’s already straining social cohesion. But what then is to be done?

There is at least a general consensus that net immigration has to be stopped so that the one easily-checkable source of population increase is dealt with. There has been a reluctance to discuss this kind of thing as parties such as the BNP have used it as a cheap excuse to stop dirty foreigners stealing our jobs and daughters, though thankfully people now seem to realise that the issue is too important to ignore. It is notable that some kind of immigration reduction features in the manifestos of all the major political parties.

Assuming that a cap can be put on immigration, we then have to turn to natural growth caused by millions of healthy babies and the millions of pensioners living far longer than would have been the case as little as forty years ago. You will find very few people advocating wholesale culling of the elderly a la Soylent Green, but at the other end it is reasonable to sustainably and gradually reduce the birth rate so as to achieve a stable population with a roughly equal distribution over the age range. Beyond the immediate time bomb of an ageing population there is a period of stability awaiting us. If the current generation of baby boomers can be cared for into old age without younger generations producing large amounts of children themselves it should be possible to see a gradual reduction in the overall population.

How then do you discourage people from having children? There is a well established connection between the wealth of a family and how many children it produces. Only the poorest families tend to produce many offspring and some people never procreate at all, which means that poverty alleviation has the potential to reduce the birth rate. How it might work is another matter entirely but there is also scope for reforming a welfare system which makes childbirth, with its state income and short cut to the top of the housing list, a more attractive option than working for many girls upon leaving education.

There also seems to be a majority view that population reduction is wholly negative. Whilst a massive drop in population overnight would have a catastrophic impact, a population which services itself in terms of provision of goods and services would negate the lower number of consumers and economic shrinkage as there would be fewer mouths to feed in very basic terms. It is possible to maintain or increase a per capita GDP whilst the population itself is reduced and in many areas the quality of life would improve as less pressure is placed on infrastructure and natural resources.

This question is addressed at length in the excellent Limits to Growth by Jorgen Randers et al, a book which should be compulsory reading for anyone who thinks that population growth is in any way sustainable.

Share this: Twitter

Facebook

Like this: Like Loading... Related