Gaza rocks Jordan

The fallout from the Gaza war and the intense Palestinian divisions is ricocheting around the Arab world — nowhere more than Jordan. There have been several moments where the tensions seemed to be peaking. At the end of December, for instance, King Abdullah shocked observers by removing Mohammed Dhahabi, his intelligence chief who had been pivotal in organizing an outreach to Hamas and Jordanian Islamists — and who is again at the center of controversy for allegedly criticizing Jordanian policy (see below). Another moment came a few days ago, when conservative and Islamist members of Parliament nearly came to blows. Political tensions are running high. American policy could make a real difference in either easing them or making them worse — and at least should take them into account as it reviews its regional strategy.

Political conditions in Jordan were tense long before Gaza, of course. The economy is in disastrous shape, with unemployment running high and the middle class under tremendous pressure. When I was in Jordan last spring I heard more open complaining about corruption at the highest levels than ever before. The government had been clashing with the Muslim Brotherhood, until the recent thaw. And the last Parliamentary elections had been deeply disappointing to most Jordanians and observers, with rampant complaints about electoral procedures and outcomes (the Islamic Action Front was only the most prominent victim of seeming electoral fraud). I mention this just for perspective — it’s not like Gaza hit a serene, untroubled political environment.

That said, Gaza has inflamed at least four intersecting fault-lines.

First, Jordanian foreign policy. King Abdullah has been walking a fine rhetorical line throughout the crisis. He has chosen to stick with the U.S.-backed "moderate" camp — he sent his Foreign Minister to the Abu Dhabi meeting of "moderates" last week, and stayed away from the Doha "rejection" meeting. But he has also tried to align his position with a mobilized Jordanian public opinion which largely supports the "rejection" camp, allowing an unusually large number of pro-Gaza demonstrations and calling repeatedly for an end to the fighting and for humanitarian relief. For the most part, Jordanian politicians and pundits have praised the official position in public, as they must, but grumbling is increasing. King Abdullah always lives in this grey zone, and wants to find an Arab consensus within which to hide. The grey zone shrinks as lines sharpen, as they have in recent years with American backing. No Arab leader would be more helped by a real Arab and Palestinian reconciliation — hence