Over the weekend FBI agents arrested the leader of a right-wing militia that was detaining migrant families at gunpoint near the border in southern New Mexico.

Don’t expect President Donald Trump to condemn the man, Larry Mitchell Hopkins, or his group.

If anything, he may praise them, even pardon them, if it comes to that.

It’s a lesson in the art of building a political base that Trump learned from former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

And Arizona.

(You’re welcome, America. Or, we’re sorry.)

Arpaio condemned Patrick Haab in 2005

The New Mexico far-right vigilante group, which calls itself United Constitutional Patriots, has recorded members detaining men, women and children who crossed the U.S./Mexico border in New Mexico, broadcasting on Facebook.

A Republican and former Trump administration official who is running for the Senate in New Mexico actually hung out with the group.

And while that guy has now distanced himself from the vigilantes there’s been nothing from the White House.

Why?

The roots of that decision may go all the way back to the spring of 2005, when Maricopa County sheriff’s deputies arrested a former Army reservist named Patrick Haab for holding a group of suspected illegal immigrants at gunpoint at a rest stop on Interstate 8.

At the time, Sheriff Arpaio said, "You don't go around pulling guns on people. Being illegal is not a serious crime."

(Yes, he actually said that.)

But voters stood with the vigilante

But the Republican electorate in Arizona sided with Haab, and was vocal about it.

Then-Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas declined to prosecute.

And Arpaio, sensing a political benefit, made a U-turn, becoming the anti-illegal immigration crusader.

And it worked, helping him get reelected again and again.

Trump has been running his political career off Arpaio’s playbook from the moment he announced his presidential campaign, talking about Mexico sending the U.S. its “criminals, drug dealers, rapists.”

It has worked for him, too.

This political strategy works

He chooses not to strenuously condemn, or condemn at all, white nationalists and separatists.

Just recently, after a racist separatist conducted a massacre in New Zealand Trump was asked if he thought white nationalism was a rising threat worldwide. He answered, “I don’t really. I think it’s a small group of people that have very, very serious problems.”

The FBI in court papers said the vigilante group leader arrested in New Mexico allegedly boasted of training volunteers to kill former President Barack Obama, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and wealthy liberal philanthropist George Soros.

Imagine the tweet storm Trump would have issued if those had been Republican stalwarts.

On Monday in Gilbert there was an event called “Patriotism Over Socialism,” which featured speeches by Republican congressman Andy Biggs, Arizona Republican Party chairwoman Kelli Ward, right-wing activist Laura Loomer and former Arizona state senator Russell Pearce who, among other things, said, "It may take the shedding of blood to keep this Republic. And I, for one, am willing to do whatever it takes.”

Pearce, et al feel emboldened by Trump

People like Pearce, like the vigilantes in New Mexico, like white nationalists and separatists here and abroad feel emboldened by Trump.

They praise him. Publicly support him.

And he does not go out of his way to condemn them. If anything, he says things like there being “fine people” on both sides, when a Neo-Nazi drove a car into a group of protesters in Charlottesville, killing a woman.

Trump’s defenders will tell you there’s no link between the president’s attitude and the rise in hate crime.

Hate groups, crimes are on the rise

But the fact is, the FBI says hate crimes increased 17 percent since 2016.

And a survey reported by The Washington Post said that counties where Trump held a campaign rally showed 226% increase in reported hate crimes over similar counties that did not hold a rally.

And the number of active hate groups in the United States is said now to be at its highest levels in more than 20 years.

This doesn’t speak to all Trump supporters, of course. Or even a majority of them. But it represents a segment of his supporters who feel protected, even bolstered by Trump and the others.

And the acceptance of such behavior by such people may have started right here 14 years ago, when a man held a gun on a group of individuals at a highway rest stop.

Reach Montini at ed.montini@arizonarepublic.com.