That said, some guys just aren’t worth where they are going in drafts these days. With the help of our friends at Fantasy Pros, and the average draft positions they aggregate from several major sites, I have identified several such players and put them on this handy do-not-draft list.

AD

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys (ADP: 7 | My ranking: 14)

If you’ve been following any fantasy football coverage at all, you’ve come across many of the reasons people are so excited about the Ohio State product, so I won’t belabor them here. Okay, some belaboring: great size/speed combination, adept at pass-blocking and receiving and expected to get a huge workload behind Dallas’s elite offensive line. The reason I just can’t put him in the first round, which is where he is going and why I won’t draft him, is simple: We have never seen him play in the NFL. That counts for more than some folks seem to realize — the history of highly drafted (by real NFL teams) busts at RB is long and underscores the immense difference between college and the pros. I still have Elliott ranked very highly, but behind some players we have actually seen excel at this level, such as Allen Robinson, Lamar Miller, Le’Veon Bell (yes, he of the three-game suspension) and Rob Gronkowski.

AD

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (ADP: 27 | My ranking: 47)

AD

The fantasy community at large is finally catching up to what the smart set has known for years: wait on QB. As popular mock-draft website Fantasy Football Calculator recently reported, “Never before has the top quarterback in fantasy football been drafted this late.” However, the urge to go with an elite signal-caller is still proving too great for too many, as evidenced by Rodgers going in the third round. That top QB, by the way is Cam Newton, and while his ADP (19) is even higher, I’m less inclined to tell fantasy players not to hope he can recreate 2015’s magical dominance. Rodgers hasn’t had a campaign that prolific since 2011, which was the last time he, or whoever the season’s QB2 turned out to be, out-scored the QB12 by as much as five points per game. The point is, given the multitude of quality options at QB, Rodgers doesn’t represent enough “safety” at that position to pass up crucial depth at other spots such as WR (where Amari Cooper has an ADP of 28) and RB (where C.J. Anderson is going at 30).

Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers (ADP: 44 | My ranking: 70)

AD

I’m not the first to make this point, a fact that we discussed on the most recent Fantasy Football Beat podcast (subscribe now!), but it’s likely asking too much for him to repeat his 2014 statistics, let alone top them. Even if Benjamin, who missed 2015 with an ACL tear, notched exactly the same numbers as he did in his rookie season — 73 catches for 1,008 and nine touchdowns — that 9.6 fantasy points-per-game average, good for a 19th-place finish that year, would only have made him the 24th-best performer at wide receiver last year. Now consider that he’s going as the 18th WR off the board, except that instead of competing for targets with the likes of Jerricho Cotchery, Philly Brown and Jason Avant, he’ll now vie with Devin Funchess and Ted Ginn (and, yes, Philly Brown) on a Panthers team that figures to be playing from behind far less often than the sub-.500 2014 version.

AD

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers (ADP: 52 | My ranking: 94)

Shouldn’t the fact that he lost Martavis Bryant to a year-long suspension, lost Heath Miller to retirement, with replacement TE Ladarius Green (ankle/headaches) looking very iffy, and won’t have Bell for three games count for something? Big Ben has finished as a top-eight QB in fantasy points per game just once in the past five seasons, and yet he is going sixth this year, just two spots behind the far steadier Drew Brees. It’s as if Roethlisberger has a plethora of options not named Antonio Brown. Some combination of Markus Wheaton, Eli Rogers and Sammie Coates may rise to the challenge, but it’s not worth passing up a potential league-winning back in Jeremy Hill (53) to find out.

Dion Lewis, RB, Patriots (ADP: 58 | My ranking: unranked)

AD

AD

After a recent, second procedure on his knee, Lewis is expected to be out for another eight to 10 weeks and highly probable to start the season on the dreaded PUP (physically unable to perform) list. His ADP is likely to drop in the days and weeks to come, as this news makes him essentially un-draftable, even if he were certain to both come back and stay completely healthy in two months’ time, which is far from a sure thing. If you still wanted to burn a roster spot while waiting for his return, and Lewis did flash terrific talent last season, he’ll be coming back to Bill Belichick’s ever-nebulous RB situation, one in which James White (and/or Tyler Gaffney and/or Brandon Bolden) will have had plenty of time to earn the coach’s trust.

Jay Ajayi, RB, Dolphins (ADP: 86 | My ranking: 99)

I don’t have him a million miles below his ADP, but Ajayi is a worth flagging as a player best approached with caution. As a rookie last year, he averaged 3.8 yards per carry over his nine games, and just 2.6 over his final seven. Having gotten that much of a look at him, the Dolphins then spent the 73rd overall pick on another RB, Kenyan Drake (Ajayi himself was the 149th pick in 2015) and attempted to lure C.J. Anderson with a sizable free-agency offer before signing an even more accomplished veteran, Arian Foster, and appearing to give Foster every chance to earn a major role. In other words, even if — okay, when — Foster goes down, who’s to say Miami will just hand Ajayi the lion’s share of the work, instead of seeking still more alternatives?

AD

AD

Jimmy Graham, TE, Seahawks (ADP: 108 | My ranking: 130)