Research by Commerzbank says the annual installation level will rise to 19.1GW by 2028 from 4.3GW in 2018

The offshore wind sector is expected to grow by an average of 15% a year over the next 10 years, according to new research by Commerzbank.

The bank said the current installation level is 4.3GW and will grow to 19.1GW a year by 2028.

Growth will be driven by Europe, as well as new markets, such as the US, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, Commerzbank said.

In the onshore wind market there will also be growth, but it will fluctuate from region to region, the research said.

Some 46GW were installed in 2018 rising to 63GW by 2020, but from 2021 to 2018 growth will vary between 57GW and 63GW a year.

The uncertainty is mainly due to regulatory changes, such as the discontinuation of state subsidies in the US and China from 2021, the bank said.

Commerzbank also highlighted problems in the Germany market, with ongoing modifications to the legal framework for tenders, permit delays and legal appeals and action the main issues.

As a result, German turbine manufacturers and their suppliers as well as project developers are increasingly facing economic pressure.

Commerzbank energy unit head Berthold Bonanni said: “If we want to achieve our CO2 emission reduction targets, we have to significantly expand wind energy in Germany.

“At the same time, all market participants need to establish an international footprint, in order to tap into new markets and increase cost efficiency.”

The bank also noted that corporate power purchase agreements provide industrial electricity consumers with the opportunity to hedge power prices.

But, Bonanni said, “from today’s perspective, we deem it unrealistic to achieve political wind energy installation targets exclusively on the basis of PPAs due to the limited availability of creditworthy offtakers.

“In order to enable the much-needed expansion of renewable energies and to achieve the CO2 reduction targets, PPAs make sense as a supplement to a subsidy regime.”