HAMILTON—In many ways the riding of Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas tells the story of this election.

The issues that matter to voters here are those that matter across the province — health care, affordability — yet it is not at all clear that these issues, rather than something more visceral, will make the difference.

A long-time Liberal stronghold, the riding now seems to be the scene of a tight race — a stark message that there is no safe Grit seat in a campaign defined by a desire for change.

Liberal MPP Ted McMeekin was first elected in the recently redrawn riding in 2000 and since then has repeatedly won re-election by large margins. But this time around, he said he’s running his campaign as if he’s in dead last.

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Hamilton West appears to be just the sort of riding Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne was trying to save when she acknowledged on Saturday that she would not be premier after the June 7 vote and called on Ontarians to elect as many Liberal candidates as possible to stop any other party from winning a majority.

McMeekin is hoping voters do just that. He said at a candidates’ debate last week he expects the NDP to win a minority government, but is optimistic he’ll continue to represent Hamilton West, running a “localized campaign” in the face of Wynne’s unpopularity.

If voters do choose change in Hamilton West, here, as elsewhere in the province, the kinds of change on offer could hardly be more dissimilar.

The campaign of Ben Levitt, the Progressive Conservative candidate, like that of his party as a whole, has been plagued by scandal. His nomination remains under scrutiny by Hamilton police, who are investigating allegations of fraud and forgery. Levitt, a 26-year-old constituency officer for a Conservative MP, said he was interviewed by police in February, and the criminal probe has “hardly ever” come up during his campaign.

“People say to me, ‘I’m glad you’re still a candidate and good for you for continuing,’ ” Levitt said, adding the election feels like a two-way race between the PCs and the NDP, the latter of which voters are “terrified” will win.

“A lot of people want the PCs to get in power so we can restore some fiscal accountability in this province. Doug Ford and our plan is resonating with voters,” Levitt said.

Yet some residents in the area say it is the prospect of a Tory victory that fills them with terror.

Resident Trish Johnston said she is “alarmed” by the investigation and dreads the possibility that Doug Ford will become premier. “Where’s the trust and transparency?” she said.

Levitt was absent at an all-candidates’ meeting Thursday at a church in Dundas, feeling ill from door knocking in the heat all day, he said.

When a moderator conveyed this news to an audience of more than 160 voters, it was met with a loud chorus of boos. NDP candidate Sandy Shaw, McMeekin and Green Party candidate Peter Ormond spoke about health care, the environment and housing without him.

The other leading change option is first-time NDP candidate Shaw, a veteran of the non-profit sector, who like many of her fellow Dippers is an untested politician whose campaign seems to have quietly picked up momentum.

A couple of weeks ago she and her team were handing out signs on a busy main street on Hamilton’s west mountain, she said, as “car after car” honked and drivers gave them the thumbs up as they passed by.

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“We just stood on the corner and waved, and thought ‘is this real?’ ” Shaw said, crediting NDP leader Andrea Horwath, who has held the Hamilton Centre riding since 2007.

The NDP had success in 2014, winning three of four Hamilton ridings, despite PCs winning in the surrounding areas of Niagara and Halton Region.

Shaw and McMeekin both said they’re banking on support from conservative voters who want to prevent PC leader Doug Ford from winning and who may be put off by the controversies surrounding Levitt.

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