ULM Warhawks Head coach: Matt Viator (14-22, fourth year) 2018 record and S&P+ ranking: 6-6 (105th) Projected 2019 record and S&P+ ranking: 5-7 (103rd) Five key points: ULM was bowl-eligible in 2018 but became one of four such teams to miss a bowl after a late rivalry loss in its season finale. This season should feature the same small margin for error -- a likely 1-3 non-conference start probably means the Warhawks need to go 6-2 in conference to be assured a bid. In Caleb Evans, ULM has one of the most proven and exciting players in the conference. He threw too many picks last year, but this offense hums when on schedule. The defense improved in 2018, though there was no choice — there was almost no way to get worse than ULM was in 2017. Most of last year’s defensive difference-makers return, and the Warhawks should have depth they haven’t boasted in a while. That could swing a close game or two.

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Down three points to UL-Lafayette in the closing seconds of the final game of the year, the ULM Warhawks had a chance to either win in regulation or send the game to overtime. A win would move them to 7-5 and all but guarantee a postseason bid; it would also prevent their biggest rivals from winning the inaugural Sun Belt West title.

On fourth-and-1 from the Ragin’ Cajuns’ 47-yard line, Caleb Evans and R.J. Turner connected on an aggressive 30-yard catch-and-run to assure a field goal chance. An Evans-to-Marcus Evans pass in the end zone fell incomplete, so kicker Craig Ford trotted onto the field to attempt a 36-yarder with four seconds left. He was an okay 8-for-11 on field goals under 40 yards.

The season had already been an emotional roller coaster. The ULM offense had ranked a rather incredible 42nd in Off. S&P+ in 2017 and returned almost everyone of importance, but halfway through the season the Warhawks had been able to top 30 points only once (an unimpressive 34 against Southeastern Louisiana) and had sunk to 110th. The defense, meanwhile, was as bad as advertised, and ULM had gotten off to a 2-4 start, complete not only with blowout losses to Texas A&M and Ole Miss (combined score: 118-31) but also a ghastly 46-14 loss to eventual two-win Georgia State.

Matt Viator’s third ULM team had rallied, though. The Warhawks had beaten Coastal Carolina by 25 points and limped by Texas State by a touchdown to get back to .500. Then they further raised their game, destroying Georgia Southern, 44-25, in by far their best performance of the season and manhandling South Alabama in Mobile. Their division title hopes had been quashed by a 31-17 loss to Arkansas State, but they still had plenty to play for against UL.

The game against the Ragin’ Cajuns was a 2018 microcosm. They fell behind 14-0 and battled back. They were down 31-21 in the fourth quarter but came back again. And all Ford needed to do was make an extremely makable kick to keep postseason hopes alive for a bit longer. (ULM was already bowl-eligible, but being 6-6 from the Sun Belt is not a bowl guarantee.)

Ford poked the kick wide right. The final kick of his career was nervous and doomed from the start. UL celebrated a division title on ULM’s home field. The Warhawks spent bowl season at home.

If nothing else, motivation probably isn’t an issue in Monroe this offseason.

By simply getting ULM to the doorstep of the postseason, Viator has proven his coaching bona fides. The 55-year old McNeese State grad spent the first half of his coaching career working through the Louisiana high school ranks, then went from position coach to offensive coordinator to 10-year head coach at his alma mater. Two of his three best seasons at McNeese came in the last three years he was there; he knows all about methodical, patient growth. Combined with his Louisiana-lifer background, this made him extremely attractive to ULM.

In three seasons in Monroe, Viator’s Warhawks have gone from 127th to 110th to 105th in S&P+. That’s certainly methodical and patient, and technically, 105th with six wins is overachievement for a team projected 107th with 5.3 likely wins.

Had I known the defense was going to eventually improve as it did (from 130th to 108th in Def. S&P+), though, I would have expected something more like seven or eight wins. The defense cleared an extremely low bar, but the offense frankly disappointed. Senior quarterback Caleb Evans returns with a chance to reclaim lost magic, and he’s got an experienced line in front of him, but his skill corps has been depleted.

Once again, the schedule leaves no margin for error. ULM always faces one of the toughest non-conference schedules in FBS and will this year travel to Florida State and Iowa State and welcome a top-30 Memphis to town. To reach even 7-5, then, the Warhawks might have to go 6-2 in conference play. They’ll be pretty solid. Will they be that solid?

Related The 2018 advanced college football stats glossary

Offense

Offensive coordinator Matt Kubik’s attack was as good as advertised when it was on schedule. The Warhawks ranked eighth in standard downs marginal efficiency, and Evans raised his passer rating on first down from 133.7 in 2017 to 149. His mistakes were typically costly, though — his 3.5 percent INT rate on first downs was about twice as high as you would prefer — and once behind schedule, the wheels came off.

You would think that a pass-first attack would be more suited for converting passing downs, but ULM ranked 98th in passing downs marginal efficiency. On third-and-7 or more, Evans completed just 48 percent of his passes and averaged just 10 yards per completion; he took minimal chances and still rarely found his target.

And that was with Marcus Green, one of the Sun Belt’s best receivers. He’s the only departure among ULM’s top four wideouts, but his 50 catches, 853 yards, and eight touchdowns all easily led the team.

Overall continuity is as important as losing one guy, though, and ULM’s in good shape there.

X-receiver RJ Turner is back after finishing second on the team with 36 catches and 526 yards.

Slot man Xavier Brown caught six passes in the season opener but missed the final two-thirds of the year with a shoulder injury and redshirted.

Senior Markis McCray was granted a fifth year of eligibility because of missed half-seasons in 2015 and 2017. He has 45 career catches.

Tight ends Josh Pederson and Tyler Lamm combined for 17 catches and two touchdowns.

Junior slot receiver Brandius Batiste caught four passes for 60 yards in the last three games of the year.

Redshirt freshman Malik Jackson was one of the more well-touted members of the 2018 recruiting class.

Turner has been an explosive complement for years and could be a nice go-to. There’s depth here, too, and maybe variety will help with some of those passing downs conversions.

Kubik’s attack is pass-first, but having a relentlessly efficient run game was what made the Warhawks so dangerous on standard downs. Though leading running back Derrick Gore is gone, the good news is that he was less efficient than most of the other members of the backfield.

Evans picks his spots very well with his legs, and both senior Austin Vaughn (52 percent) and Kayin White (50 percent) had better success rates than Gore (39 percent). Onetime Ole Miss commit Josh Johnson didn’t do much after showing up in August, but he could be ready for more of a load with a full offseason in the program.

And when I say the ULM line is experienced, I mean it is experienced. All five of last year’s starters are back, including third-team all-conference performers Bobby Reynolds (center) and T.J. Fiailoa (right guard). The five have combined for 131 career starts, one of the highest totals you’ll ever see heading into a season. And since ULM ranked 23rd in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) and 26th in sack rate, the bar is awfully high for this unit. If Evans has another gear, this line will give him time to reach it.

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Defense

Technically, there was nowhere to go but up for the ULM defense in 2018. The Warhawks’ 2017 unit was one of the worst you’ll see — they ranked dead last in Def. S&P+, allowing 45.5 adjusted points per game. Their percentile rating of 1.3 percent was the seventh-worst of the decade (fourth among teams not named Eastern Michigan). So saying that ULM improved in 2018 is kind of a “well, duh” situation. It almost literally couldn’t get worse.

That said, the Warhawks actually improved, all the way to 35.4 adjusted points per game and 108th in Def. S&P+. That’s not good enough, obviously, but it was a substantive advance. ULM built an identity around disruptive play — 60th in stuff rate, 13th in sack rate — and really seemed to find a groove in the second half of the season, once the SEC opponents were done doing their damage.

First six games (2-4) — Points per game: 41.7 | Yards per play: 7.4 | Avg. percentile performance: 21 percent

— Points per game: 41.7 | Yards per play: 7.4 | Avg. percentile performance: 21 percent Last six games (4-2) — Points per game: 21.8 | Yards per play: 5.1 | Avg. percentile performance: 66 percent

That last number is key. The percentile rating is adjusted for opponent, and it shows that ULM didn’t simply improve because A&M and Ole Miss were off the schedule.

More good news: just about everyone is back. Well, at least theoretically. The two leading returning linemen, end Kerry Starks and tackle Jaylen Veasley, both did stupid things this offseason (you can read more here: Starks is suspended, Veasley might be soon). We’ll see if they end up on the field this fall.

To be sure, Starks and linebacker David Griffith (who’s definitely gone) were important, leading the team with five sacks each. But tackles Mason Husmann and Larance Shaw and end Donald Louis Jr. (all of whom are back) were nearly as important as Starks and Veasley, and depth and diversity of play-making was one of the team’s strengths.

ULM brings back every linebacker beyond Griffith, plus every key lineman beyond maybe Starks/Veasley, and five of last year’s top seven DBs. And Rhoy Williams, a starting safety in 2017, returns after missing last season with injury, which will help to ease the loss of safety Collin Turner. So will the addition of three-star JUCO transfer Keilos Swinney.

So now we get to find out if further improvement is possible. Really, it doesn’t matter if ULM can stop FSU or Iowa State — it only has to disrupt offenses like Texas State’s and Coastal Carolina’s. It probably can.

Special Teams

Missing out on a bowl because of a missed field goal was a little bit on the nose. ULM’s special teams unit dragged it down a lot in 2018; the Warhawks fell from 55th to 119th in Special Teams S&P+, covering and returning kickoffs pretty well but ranking 120th in field goal efficiency, 119th in punt return efficiency, and 117th in punt efficiency. Not great.

Ford’s gone, so there will be a new place-kicker for better or worse, and in theory punts will improve simply because punter Jared Porter is no longer a freshman.

2019 outlook

You never get back missed opportunities, and when you’re ULM, you don’t just get a ton of opportunities, period. When a season ends like 2018 did, it can haunt you for a while and lead to you chasing ghosts.

This year’s schedule features just as little margin for error as last year’s (and every year’s for ULM), and the talent base has just as much upside and downside. That means bowl eligibility will likely come down to the wire once more. Can Evans make a few more passes behind schedule and flip a close game or two? Can the defense maintain last year’s late-season improvement? And can the Warhawks avoid laying an egg like they did against Georgia State? Having minimal margin for error means no giveaways when you’ve got a winnable game.

Viator took on a thankless job three years ago. I admire him for taking it on, and he has done an admirable job. He’ll have to keep right on coaching well to give his team a shot at something greater than near misses.

Team preview stats

All 2019 preview data to date.