Arkansas RHP Zach Jackson was outstanding on Friday. (Kendall Rogers)

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2015 Fayetteville Super Regional Preview

HOW ARKANSAS GOT HERE: After losing their first two SEC series against league powers Vanderbilt and LSU, the Razorbacks did not lose another weekend series, winning seven of their last eight sets and tying one. They traveled to the Stillwater Regional as the No. 2 seed and won the regional in three games, beating each of the other three teams once.

HOW MISSOURI STATE GOT HERE: The Bears were amazingly consistent from start to finish, losing just one weekend series all year and finishing 18-3 in the Missouri Valley Conference, then running unbeaten through the conference tournament to finish in the top 10 in the RPI and earn the No. 8 national seed. Then they went 3-0 in the Springfield Regional to stretch their winning streak to 19 games heading into super regionals. Despite being a national seed, the Bears could not host the super regional because they share their home park with a Double-A club that has a home series scheduled for this weekend.

WHO GETS THE EDGE?

Starting Pitching: This one is lopsided. Missouri State might have the best one-two punch of any team in the tournament, with slam-dunk first-rounder Jon Harris and strikeout machine lefty Matt Hall. Southpaw Jordan Knutson has had a nice year as the No. 3 starter, too. Arkansas’ rotation of Trey Killian (2-4, 4.76), Keaton McKinney (6-1, 3.21) and Dominic Taccolini (6-4, 4.32) has been far less consistent.

Edge: Missouri State

Bullpen: The Bears have an ultra-reliable closer in Bryan Young (7-0, 1.31, 16 saves) and a pair of decent middle relievers in Sam Perez and Zach Merciez, but Arkansas gets a slight edge in this category because closer Zach Jackson (5-0, 2.08, 8 saves) has utterly overpowering stuff. The supporting cast — Jackson Lowery, James Teague, Josh Alberius and Jacob Stone — is just OK, but Jackson alone tilts this category ever so slightly in the Hogs’ favor.

Edge: Arkansas

Offense: These two teams have almost identical batting averages (.291 and .292), but the Hogs have more power, with 50 home runs to Missouri State’s 37. Andrew Benintendi accounts for most of the difference — the SEC player of the year (.390/.491/.723, 18 HR, 54 RBI, 22 SB) is the nation’s best power/speed threat and also reached base in nearly half of his plate appearances, with more walks (42) than strikeouts (30). Tyler Spoon, Joe Serrano, Michael Bernal, Rick Nomura and Bobby Wernes make for a solid supporting cast. Missouri State has a balanced lineup with tough outs one through nine, but Benintendi is the huge difference maker, and he tilts this matchup in Arkansas’ favor.

Edge: Arkansas

Defense: These teams have matching .976 fielding percentages, and neither team has a discernible advantage in this category. Both have reliable middle infields and catchers, both have big-name playmakers in center field (Benintendi and Tate Matheny), and both are good on the corners.

Edge: Push

Experience/Intangibles: If Missouri State were hosting, this series would look a lot different. But Arkansas will be home in front of 11,000-plus fans, and the Hogs feed off the energy of their home crowd. On top of that, Arkansas has more postseason experience, including a key holdover from their 2012 College World Series team in Serrano. Dave Van Horn knows the way to Omaha, and his Razorbacks are accustomed to playing in front of huge SEC crowds — something that the Bears don’t experience as a Missouri Valley team.

Edge: Arkansas

SCOUTING REPORTS

An opposing coach breaks down Arkansas

“I think it’s probably the best coaching job that Coach Van Horn’s done — I think they’ve done a fantastic job of coaching this team. No. 1, they have one of the best players in the country in (Andrew) Benintendi. Next year, if (Zach) Jackson stays healthy, I think he can be one of the best closers in the country. (Trey) Killian is a veteran pitcher, velocity hasn’t been as high as in the past, but he’s a fierce competitor, commands the fastball to both sides of the plate. Behind him, (Jackson) Lowery is 7-1 who somehow has pitched very well with average stuff. From him they give it to the big man Jackson. If jackson throws strikes, you have no chance to score. He’s that good. (Joe) Serrano played in the World Series in 2012, he’s an experienced player, leadoff. You have (Tyler) Spoon, who’s been there for quite some time, had a really good year. (Michael) Bernal, the shortstop, has really made them a better team. He’s really grown as a shortstop and as a player, much improved. Bobby Wernes has had a really good season — probably not a prospect or even a suspect, but a very good college player, good at third.

“I would think Arkansas has the advantage offensively, maybe because Benintendi stands out the most, Spoon and Serrano. They do a good job of putting the bat on the baseball, they’re good defensively, and they find ways to win. And they’re very hot. One thing that stands out with Arkansas, they lost their first two (SEC) series and they won two out of three from then on. They became a better team as the season progressed. Anytime you have two of the better players in the SEC like Benintendi and Jackson, that’s pretty good.

“Benintendi’s a great athlete. If you go back to the history of him as a hitter, he broke the state high school record in the state of Ohio for most hits in a career. So he has a history of always hitting. He might be almost a five-tool player, his defense, his baserunning, his athleticism, his power, his ability to hit, and he’s made some adjustments this season. Some hitters just know, he just has a feel for where that barrel’s supposed to be to hit. And that’s a gift. He has timing. Some guys have that, and he has a great feel for the barrel.

Arkansas outfielder Andrew Benintendi (Arkansas)

“Spoon and Serrano were both there in ’12, Spoon redshirted. They’re very good college players, they have great experience playing in the SEC, so there’s nothing really that they’ve seen that they haven’t seen in the past. I think with the experienced players that they have, if those three guys are offensive and have good weekends, the offensive edge goes to Arkansas.

“I think Bernal’s a fantastic college shortstop that has gained confidence as the season has gone on. He’s really started to hit, I would guess his batting average has really taken off in the last month and a half. In the SEC tournament he made an ESPN top 10 catch going back to the outfield. He’s been very, very good — probably the biggest key to their team has been him. And also catching, they’ve figured out with their catching situation, they have (Carson Shaddy and (Tucker) Pennell, who doesn’t really hit, but they’ve found a way to get a catcher back there that controls the game. So they’ve made some adjustments throughout the season.

“The one guy who played juco ball in Kansas, I think the guy hit like .240 or .250 in high school, is Wernes — he’s been very solid for them. He’s done a good job defensively. Arkansas is fielding .976, Missouri State is fielding .976, so that’s a push right there. It will come down to Serrano, Benintendi and Spoon, in my opinion. (Rick) Nomura, a switch-hitter, high leg kick guy — leg kicks like a big man. Him and Bernal have been developed as the season has gone on, turned into very good players. Watching them early, you think, ‘They’re OK.’ Watching them late, they’re playing very good baseball.

“When you look at the pitching, one concern you can think of is Arkansas’ starting pitching doesn’t match up with Missouri State. But look at the bullpen, advantage goes to Arkansas with Jackson. With Jackson, it’s filthy. It’s big league, electric stuff. He’s a big man, he’s durable, I think he gets up to 96 maybe 97. And he has a fantastic wipeout breaking ball. Teams are hitting .189 with 80 strikeouts in 52 innings against him. Another big thing with him is being in the strike zone — at times he has command issues and gets himself in trouble. Lowery doesn’t strike out anyone, pitches to contact, he’s kind of been the middle man on the staff, he’s done a good job of coming in in the middle of the game, getting through a couple innings and handing the ball to Jackson. (James) Teague’s an innings eater, could possibly start if needed. I think he’s gotten better as the season’s gone on. (Josh) Alberius is a guy that they converted form shortstop to pitcher, he had a good arm at short, wasn’t going to get to play there, but he throws strikes and he’s done a fantastic job. For the most part, they’re going to pitch to contact, not interested in striking guys out, let their defense handle the baseball. Until Jackson comes in — he has wipeout stuff.

“(Starter) Keaton McKinney threw 90-94 in high school, was an elite guy coming out of Iowa. He’s pitching 86-90 with heavy, heavy sink, and he has a slider and a changeup — his changeup is his second-best pitch. He’s done a very good job, too. (Dominic) Taccolini is a sinker/slider guy, velocity hasn’t been as high as maybe he had been in the past, but command is the thing with him with that sinking fastball, keeping it down and throwing strikes. His fastball moves as much as any guy out there, in my opinion. It moves so much, it’s a command issue at times. But when he’s on, he’s tough to hit, and it’s tough to elevate the ball.

“One thing, with that fan base there and Missouri State not being able to play at home, I’m not sure they know what they’re going to walk into. Dave is a fantastic coach. Arkasnas sells itself with that facility, and he’s done a great job. I think he’s been to 14 regionals in a row. They’ve got a wily veteran pitching coach in Dave Jorn, who just works the fundamentals of pitching, nothing fancy. I think they’ve done a fantastic job coaching this team. They did have the player of the year, that helped. And they did have a guy in the bullpen, both of those guys will be in the big leagues.”

An opposing coach breaks down Missouri State

“They have the two-headed monster with (Jon) Harris and (Matt) Hall. Harris is gonna be 90-94, he’s gonna throw four pitches for strikes, a get-me-over curveball, a slider and changeup. He’ll throw a two- and four-seam fastball so he really has five pitches. The best pitcher I saw all season, with command — if he doesn’t have the curveball, he has the slider. It’s not like a Carson Fulmer where you go, ’It’s overpowering, we can’t catch up with it.’ He’s gonna control the game, he’s good with runners in scoring position, that’s really where he makes his money. He can really pitch, he’s gonna be a first-rounder. When you walk away after playing him and he pitches, you just go, ‘He can really pitch.”

“Now Hall, the lefthander who pitches on Saturday, he has 163 strikeouts. He’s 11-2, 2.17 with 163 strikeouts — he’s broken a school record. I don’t know if I ever remember seeing that many strikeouts. He has fastball-curveball-changeup, a big 11-5 curveball that he can throw any time. He’s very good. To me, he’s the guy that has not received enough credit. I think he’s the guy that wins the big games maybe moreso than Harris. He’s 88-91 — he’ll be more 86-88, touch some 91s — but his curveball, it’s like the old 90s curveball guys. He has a true curveball, you don’t see that much in college anymore, you see more sliders. The other thing with Hall, he’ll throw a cutter to righthanders, that’s really good too. He’s very confident, he’s one fierce competitor. Harris is up there, very calm and controlled, he acts like a professional player. Hall is fierce, he’s a fierce competitor. That game two is really the pivotal game in the series. I think if Arkansas doesn’t get after Harris on Friday, I think it’s going to be really tough to get Hall on Saturday.

Missouri State’s Matt Hall (Missouri State Athletics)

“After that they have a lefthander named (Jordan) Knutson, he’s an average guy. Three-pitch mix, fastball, breaking ball, changeup. They find ways to win when he pitches. Maybe it’s because the other two guys are so good, by the time you get to him on Sunday, you go, ‘This guy’s average.’ I think he’ll be 84-88 if I’m not mistaken, just finds a way to pitch and win. He’s the one guy you think that you can beat, then you look up and you have three or four runs off him. They really have about seven guys that pitch. They don’t have a lot of depth pitching. They have two guys who will beat anybody in the country, and they’ll throw seven, eight innings every time they go out there.

“(Closer) Bryan Young is gonna be 88-92 with a good slider, a changeup, but the slider’s really gonna be his out pitch. He throws strikes, and he’s their guy. (Zach) Merciez and (Sam) Perez, I think they’re 88-90 guys, throw strikes, complementary pitches with it. Not like you’re going, ‘You have no chance.’ Missouri State’s really good, but it surprises me that they’ve been that good with really two legit pitchers. They’ve stayed healthy and had a hell of a season.

“Remember this: This team that they have offensively, most of those guys are back from last year. Last year they went through a period where they did not score a run for five games straight. They went through a period where they couldn’t score a run, and it was a tough season for them. I have great respect for the guys on that coaching staff; Keith Guttin is a simple coach who’s done it for a long time.

“Offensively they’re not going to kill you with power, they’re going to put the ball in play. (Jake) Burger is an all-conference guy who had a lot of doubles. Tate Matheny, you know who he is. He’s consistent, he’s very consistent. He puts the bat on the ball, can hit the ball the other way. I think he has more power than he shows. He’s a very good outfielder with probably an average to a tick above-average major league arm. I think he exudes the confidence for their team. Him and the shortstop, Joey Hawkins, those are their rocks, the foundation of their confidence, offensively. Just one through nine, it’s a complete offense. They’ll work deep in the count and stay in the strike zone. You know when you play a team and you go, ‘Hey, they’re good, but they’re not that good.’ Then you play them the next day and you say, ‘They’re even better than I thought yesterday.’ Then you see them Sunday and go, ‘Hey, they’re real good.’ The more you play Missouri State, the more you realize how good they are.

“The guy who really hurt us is the lefthanded hitter Eric Cheray. He was hurt for a while, but he’s just a timely hitting guy. It’s nothing where you go, ‘Oh God, he can really hurt you.’ It’s quality at-bats, they put it in play and make something happen. (Dylan) Becker and Hawkins are perfect table-setters. Their leadoff guy, Becker, hardly even swings until he gets deep into the count. Then Matheny’s dangerous, Cheray’s dangerous, Burger’s dangerous. (Spencer) Johnson is a physical threat, he can hurt you with a double. He doesn’t have a lot of home runs, but he’s got some doubles power, he’s a big man that can hit. (Justin) Paulsen’s a heavyset player who’s got juice and can hit some home runs, has eight home runs. He’s a scary player to face, good strike-zone awareness, more walks than strikeouts. They have 303 walks and 350 strikeouts in the year.

“They’re balanced 1-9, they have a good idea of the strike zone, they’re very controlled. They’re not gonna steal any bases, they like to hit-and-run a little bit once they get going. And they play very good defense, very simple, fundamental defense. Up the middle they’re good. They’re gonna make the routine plays, they’re not gonna make mistakes. (Matt) Fultz is an adequate catcher and not a very good thrower, probably a below-average thrower, but they’re so quick to the plate. Two of their three starters are lefthanded, they really try to control the running game by being quick to the plate. So it really doesn’t factor in.

“When you have 10 losses and 40-whatever wins, they really know how to win late in the game. They’ve had a dream season, a dream season.”