LANSING — Michigan almost certainly will have to ask the federal government for help paying unemployment benefits to Michigan residents who are out of work during the coronavirus pandemic. The question is when.

The state started 2020 with more than $4.6 billion in its unemployment trust fund, the account that pays weekly benefits to people to laid-off workers and is funded through payroll taxes levied on employers. Michigan started the year withthe third-highest balance among the 50 states.

That's a healthy sum, far higher than the roughly $40 million in reserves at the start of the Great Recession, Unemployment Insurance Agency spokesperson Jason Moon said in an email.

But the unprecedented number of unemployment claims filed since the first Michigan cases of COVID-19 were identified in mid-March will drain the trust fund in relatively short order.

State economists estimate the trust has enough money to last about 14 weeks, according to a presentation shared with economists across Michigan on Monday.

About 1.17 million people have filed for unemployment claims since late March, when Gov. Gretchen Whitmer ordered non-essential businesses to close in order to limit the disease's spread through personal contact.

The state had paid $1.66 billion in benefits to more than 1 million claimants as of Monday, with money coming from both the state fund and federal government, which is granting workers $600 in additional weekly benefits during the pandemic.

Michigan will need to pay out $10 billion in unemployment claims during the pandemic, predicted Chris O'Leary, senior economist at the Upjohn Institute in Kalamazoo.

O'Leary used that figure to set up an arithmetic problem: If the trust has $4.6 in reserves, gets about $1.2 billion in annual payroll taxes and has to pay out $10 billion, that means it will fall about $4 billion short.

Michigan is eligible for interest-free loans from the federal government because it is among 31 states the U.S. Department of Treasury considers solvent, meaning it has enough in reserves to cover a normal amount of payments, according to the department's February report on state unemployment funds.

"There's no doubt that the money will be available," O'Leary said.

How Michigan will reopen its economy

Whitmer announced a plan to slowly reopen sectors of Michigan's economy during a press conferenceMonday in Lansing. She did not announce a timeline for allowing businesses to open.

Businesses that pose the least risk of exposing people to the coronavirus — like those that do outdoor work and can easily keep workers separate — and businesses that are important to health and safety will be the first allowed to operate.

Others will be allowed to open as the pandemic subsides and when safety measures, like cleaning and symptom screening, are adopted.

"We have to be really smart," Whitmer said Monday. "We have to get this right. None of us – I'm confident when I say none of us – wants to see a second wave."

The trajectory of the coronavirus dictates the trajectory of Michigan's economic recovery, said Charles Ballard, Michigan State University economics professor. The key will be getting the economy operating at closer to normal levels without seeing a resurgence in coronavirus cases.

Recovery isn't guaranteed even if all workplaces were allowed to operate normally, Ballard said.

More:Economists forecast 'jaw-dropping' downturn because of the coronavirus

Economic rebound depends on the coronavirus

People will change their behavior to avoid getting sick. It might take a long time before people are comfortable eating inside busy restaurants.

"Not everything’s going to bounce back," he said. "It took years after 9/11 for the demand for air travel to return to what it had been before. When people get scared about something they don't get [over it] right away."

The economy will rebound more easily if workplaces participate in a recently expanded work-share program, Ballard said. The program allows employers to keep relationships with more of their staff by reducing hours for all their employees instead of totally laying off a few.

More:State expands work share program to avoid more layoffs in Michigan

Economic forecasts are based on predictions about how long it will take Michigan's economy to rebound as the pandemic slows.

It's unclear how long that will take. It's also unclear how long it will take to replenish the trust fund that pays unemployment benefits, O'Leary said.

Usually, employers have to pay more into the unemployment trust fund if they lay off workers. Whitmer suspended that practice in an executive order that states benefit costs will be charged to the UIA's "non-chargeable account," which all employers pay into.

That would be unfair in a normal context, but O'Leary said it makes sense when sending workers home keeps communities safer.

"Laying off people, stopping them from being too close in the workplace and spreading the virus, there's a social benefit to that," he said. "The theory is that everyone benefits so let's all share in the cost."

Workers laid off during the pandemic are earning more in benefits than normal — up to $962 in combined state and federal weekly payments. That's more than many earn in normal wages, another example of what O'Leary said is an unemployment change that makes sense during a pandemic because it encourages people to stay home.

"They're going to feel a little less urgency to get back and potentially spread the disease," he said. "It will have a lot of good effects."

Filing for unemployment is not an option for people working in critical service industries, like hospitals, grocery stores and nursing homes. Approximately 63% of those essential workers make less in wages than they would on unemployment during the pandemic, according to the state's Monday presentation.

More:Some essential workers could make more on unemployment. They're still on the job.

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Contact Carol Thompson at (517) 377-1018 or ckthompson@lsj.com. Follow her on Twitter @thompsoncarolk.