The fall of Aleppo will have great resonance in Syria’s savage civil war. Apart from its symbolic value, it will mean that the regime now controls what was once the country’s largest city and commercial centre. It will broadcast the potency of Russian military power and the abject failure of Western policy in this crisis. It will mean that Bashar al-Assad has the enemy he has always wanted. But it will not mean that the bloodshed is going to end anytime soon.

As the regime’s forces continued to clear the last corners of what the opposition calls “Free Aleppo” the House of Commons in London held an emergency debate on Tuesday. Amid much hand-wringing George Osborne acknowledged “this tragedy was created by a vacuum of Western leadership, of American leadership, British leadership”.

The West does, indeed, bear a heavy responsibility for what has happened. Having encouraged the Syrian people to rise up against the Assad regime it did little to help the moderate opposition, allowing Islamist extremists of al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra funded by the Gulf states, to become predominant. David Cameron with his mantra of “Assad must go” was among those who dismissed compromise deals which might, just, have helped stem the conflict.



What is unfolding in Aleppo will have an effect outside Syria. Reports of Shia militias and regime troops carrying out executions of Sunnis, whether civilian or fighters, on the streets and at homes; of assaults and mass arrests with Sunni youths and young men is likely to further fuel the violent sectarian strife in the region.

It was not surprising that the death throes of Aleppo were accompanied by brutality. This was to be expected in a conflict where there has been little pity. A conflict in which a rebel fighter some of us thought we knew well appeared in a video eating the heart of a dead soldier: where a Western backed group smiled to the cameras before murdering a 12-year-old boy; where journalists, some of them our friends, and aid workers have been beheaded by Isis. This was also the conflict where we have found the bodies of doctors who had been arrested by the regime’s security service dumped on the streets of Aleppo with their eyes gouged out and in which women activists have talked of their gang-rape in President Assad’s prisons.

The siege of Aleppo had been well documented: repeated international conferences and ceasefires being organised and then falling apart: accusations and recriminations among world powers – a ghastly danse macabre taking place in a once beautiful and civilised city being destroyed by barrel bombs and missile strikes.

In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Show all 30 1 /30 In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria A Syrian family arrives at a checkpoint, manned by pro-government forces, at the al-Hawoz street roundabout, after leaving Aleppo's eastern neighbourhoods Getty In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria A Syrian woman, fleeing violence in the restive Bustan al-Qasr neighbourhood, reacts as she stands with her children in Aleppo's Fardos neighbourhood, after regime troops retook the area from rebel fighters Getty In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Syrian pro-regime fighters, gesture as they drive past resident fleeing violence in the restive Bustan al-Qasr neighbourhood, in Aleppo's Fardos neighbourhood Getty In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Syrian rebels withdrew from six more neighbourhoods in their one-time bastion of east Aleppo in the face of advancing government troops, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Getty In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Syrian rebels withdrew from six more neighbourhoods in their one-time bastion of east Aleppo in the face of advancing government troops, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Getty In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Syrian residents, fleeing violence in the restive Bustan al-Qasr neighbourhood, arrive in Aleppo's Fardos neighbourhood , after regime troops retook the area from rebel fighters Getty In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Syrian pro-regime fighters, gesture as they drive past residents fleeing violence in the restive Bustan al-Qasr neighbourhood, in Aleppo's Fardos neighbourhood Getty In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Syrian residents, fleeing violence in the restive Bustan al-Qasr neighbourhood, arrive in Aleppo's Fardos neighbourhood, after regime troops retook the area from rebel fighters Getty In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Syrian residents, fleeing violence in the restive Bustan al-Qasr neighbourhood, arrive in Aleppo's Fardos neighbourhood Getty In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria A Syrian pro-regime fighter speaks with a child, as residents flee violence in the restive Bustan al-Qasr neighbourhood. Syrian rebels withdrew from six more neighbourhoods in their one-time bastion of east Aleppo in the face of advancing government troops AFP/Getty Images In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Smoke rises as seen from a governement-held area of Aleppo, Syria Reuters In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Syrian soldiers targeting rebels-held areas in the eastern neighborhoods in Aleppo, Syria. According to media reports, the army is now holding on 99 percent of Aleppoís eastern neighborhoods EPA In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Syrian pro-government forces patrol Aleppo's eastern al-Salihin neighbourhood after troops retook the area from rebel fighters Getty In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Syrian soldiers rest following the battle at al-Sheik Saeed neighborhood in Aleppo, Syria EPA In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria A Syrian pro-government fighter walking past closed shops in the Bab al-Nasr district of Aleppo's Old City. Once renowned for its bustling souks, grand citadel and historic gates, Aleppo's Old City has been rendered virtually unrecognisable by some of the worst violence of Syria's war Getty In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria The crucial battle for Aleppo entered its 'final phase' after Syrian rebels retreated into a small pocket of their former bastion in the face of new army advances. The retreat leaves opposition fighters confined to just a handful of neighbourhoods in southeast Aleppo, the largest of them Sukkari and Mashhad Getty In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Syrian civilans arrive at a checkpoint, manned by pro-government forces, at the al-Hawoz street roundabout, after leaving Aleppo's eastern neighbourhoods. Syria's government has retaken at least 85 percent of east Aleppo, which fell to rebels in 2012, since beginning its operation Getty In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Syrian civilians flee the Sukkari neighbourhood towards safer rebel-held areas in southeastern Aleppo Getty In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Syrians celebrate in the government-held Mogambo neighbourhood of the northern Syrian city of Aleppo, after rebel fighters retreated into a small pocket of their former bastion in the face of new army advances Getty In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Syrians celebrate in the government-held Mogambo neighbourhood of the northern Syrian city of Aleppo, after rebel fighters retreated into a small pocket of their former bastion in the face of new army advances. The fall of Aleppo would be the worst rebel defeat since Syria's conflict began in 2011, and leave the government in control of the country's five major cities Getty In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria A Syrian refugee camp in the Bekaa Valley, Lebanon, close to the Syrian border PA wire In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Syrian refugee Aliya inside the tent where she lives with her husband and ten children in a camp in the Bekaa Valley, Lebanon, close to the Syrian border PA wire In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Syrian refugee women and children outside the entrance to their tents in the refugee camp in the Bekaa Valley, Lebanon, close to the Syrian border PA Wire In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria A Syrian refugee camp in the Bekaa Valley, Lebanon, close to the Syrian border PA wire In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria A Syrian refugee camp in the Bekaa Valley, Lebanon, close to the Syrian border PA Wire In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria A Syrian refugee woman outside the entrance to the tent where her family live, in the refugee camp in the Bekaa Valley, Lebanon, close to the Syrian border PA wire In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria A vehicle drives past a mosque at night in Idlib, Syria. Picture taken with a long exposure Reuters In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Damaged buildings stand in the rebel-controlled town of Binnish in Idlib province, Syria Reuters In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria The night sky is seen through damaged windows in the rebel-controlled town of Binnish in Idlib province, Syria Reuters In Pictures: The crisis unfolding in Syria Damaged buildings stand in the rebel-controlled area of Maaret al-Numan in Idlib province, Syria Reuters

The fall of Aleppo is going to be a body blow to the Frees Syrian Army (FSA) a loose coalition of groups, some backed by the West, which had been fighting the regime, Isis, against and alongside Jabhat al-Nusra at different times, as well as each other.

American aid to these groups was already under threat since the victory of Donald Trump. The president-Elect has professed his admiration for Vladimir Putin and sees Russia as an ally against Islamist terrorism. The fall of Aleppo is likely to reinforce the desire of the incoming administration in Washington to cut their losses with what remains of the moderate opposition groups.

These FSA members, angry and disillusioned, are likely to head for neighbouring Idlib where Jabhat al-Nusra, has set up base. Some of the fighters who had managed to escape from Aleppo are already there, joining a stream from others from areas where the regime has made gains.

Toddler weeps for dead father in harrowing footage from Aleppo

Al-Nusra had recently sought to rebrand itself, changing the name to Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, claiming to have cut links with al-Qaeda. But it remains designated as a terrorist organisation by the US and the Kremlin has declared that they will face the next offensive after Aleppo.

Having the bulk of what is left of the armed opposition to him fighting under the black flag of al-Nusra will suit the Assad regime’s narrative that they have been fighting terrorists all along. It is not just the Trump administration which is likely to be receptive to this but also some governments in Europe, especially if hard-right parties get to the levers of power.

But there is no guarantee of total victory for President Assad. Isis may be fighting desperately to cling on to Mosul, its remaining stronghold in Iraq and it faces an impending attack on Raqaa, the capital of its “caliphate”, in Syria, but its recapture of Palmyra showed that it retains the ability to fight and carry out counter-offensives.

Isis had overrun Palmyra in May last year after a mass retreat by regime forces and destroyed much of the priceless heritage of the historic city. It was recaptured ten months later by the regime with the help of intense Russian air-strikes. The jihadis came back and took over again this week with relative ease, demonstrating that President Assad’s army remains vulnerable in other areas while undertaking a major mission like the one in Aleppo and when it does not have immediate Russian and Iranian support.

Syria, in the course of this five-year long conflict, has become the arena for both internal and regional rivalry. The Turks have established a deep security zone’ in the north of the country with thousands of troops, armour and aircraft, backing rebel groups it supports and as part of its war against the Kurds. They are not about to give up this strategic advantage.

The Kurdish YPG and the Syrian Defence Forces (SDF) a mixed Arab and Kurdish group, are seen by Washington as the most effective allies on the ground against Isis and receive American military support. They have made substantial territorial gains and they are trying to expand the area under their control.