Josh Miller/CNET

Samsung should enjoy a profitable quarter if one analyst's smartphone projections are on the money.

The company is expected to ship 61.5 million smartphones in the fourth quarter, said UBS analyst Nicolas Gaudois, as reported by the Yonhap News agency. That number would prove a 5 percent gain over the 58 million estimated shipments for the third quarter.

And the figure could grow as high as 63 million, the analyst forecast, depending on how many units are actually sold to consumers. The gain in shipments will be triggered in large part by the Galaxy Note 2, which Samsung released in September.

"The Galaxy Note 2 has shipped 3 million units in its first five weeks of sales, with sell-through strong in Asia and Europe, and the U.S. gathering pace post-launch," Gaudois said in his investors note, according to Yonhap. "We hence forecast 7 million Galaxy Note 2, compared to our initial expectation of 5 million for the fourth quarter."

Samsung's Galaxy S3 will also be a major factor in the higher shipments.

Unveiled in May, the new Galaxy S flagship brought in unit sales of more than 5.5 million just in October. Despite concerns that the iPhone 5 might steal away some business, the analyst sees little effect on S3 sales.

"We see a limited ramp-down, if any at all, for the Galaxy S3, and we feel comfortable with our 15 million estimate for the fourth quarter of 2012," Gaudois added.

Samsung and Apple virtually own the smartphone market. The two have been duking it out for the top spot, but recent reports from IDC and other research firms show Samsung still clearly in the lead over its archrival.