NBA PICKS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

Hi guys, nothing spectacular from a betting perspective tonight. I’ve got one play rated 1 star and I’ll provide some insight on both games. First, let’s see the projections:

MAY 2, 2017 SPREAD MONEY LINE Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Wizards +5 +6,3 +188 +254 2,88 3,54 -10,6% Celtics -5 -6,3 -210 -254 1,48 1,39 X 5,8% Tip: Bet the Celtics. Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ Pinnacle PROF. MJ PICK ROI Jazz +13 +12,9 +858 +1011 9,58 11,11 -2,2% Warriors -13 -12,9 -1150 -1011 1,09 1,10 -2,6% Tip: No value bet.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m taking the Celtics -5 against the Wizards . The status of Washington forward Markieff Morris is uncertain at the moment. He claimed he was going to suit up for sure, but his coach made it sound like he was not likely to be on the court. Also, Morris was seen with a very noticeable limp after the game and he apparently struggled to put on his shoe because there was too much swelling. I penalized the Wizards 3% based on this information (i.e. their estimated win probability went from 31.2% to 28.2%). Boston is 7-2 against the spread versus the Wizards over the past 9 contests. I remain cautious about that game though. During the regular season, Boston beat Washington by 8 and 9-point margins at home but lost by 25 and 15 points on the road. The Wizards blew an early 16-0 lead by losing Game 1 by a 123-111 score, thanks to a flurry of 3-pointers by the Celtics.

The other game features Game 1 of the Jazz-Warriors series. I’m leaning towards Golden State, but I’m going to stay away from that game. Since the 2009 playoffs, teams coming off a 4-game sweep are 8-2 against the spread in Game 1 of the next round when facing a team that needed 7 games to finish off their previous opponents. Jazz power forward Derrick Favors is listed as questionable: he did not practice yesterday, but back soreness may not be enough to prevent him from playing (although he won’t be 100%). Meanwhile, Kevin Durant probably appreciated the week off to heal his calf injury.

Have a great day!

Professor MJ