Vanderbilt's Wade Baldwin goes up for a shot against Texas A&M's Tonny Trocha-Morelos during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Saturday, March 5, 2016, in College Station, Texas. Texas A&M won 76-67.

By Chris Herrington of The Commercial Appeal

Thursday night’s NBA Draft will mark the highest pick (at No. 17) that the Grizzlies have had since drafting Xavier Henry at No. 12 back in 2010. I talked draft yesterday with guest Andrew Ford on the Pick-and-Popcast and will join colleagues Ron Tillery and Geoff Calkins for a live-streaming conversation at 12:30 today. But first, I can’t left a draft go by without putting on my waders and getting deep(er) into the muck.

Ten takes on the Grizzlies draft:

1. Tools vs. Production: The diversity of the Grizzlies front office brings, potentially, a diversity of styles and outlooks on the draft. Basketball Ops VP John Hollinger is the easiest to figure, if only because he’s actually published on the subject. Hollinger’s projections are rooted in production, but subject to all kinds of filters (presumably: age, height, wingspan, quality of competition, etc.) and weights (some stats are more predictive than others). General Manager Chris Wallace has often shown an affinity for pedigree and projected upside over college production (Tony Wroten, Jr., Xavier Henry and Josh Selby all former highly rated high school prospects who faded a bit in college, O.J. Mayo projected as the next LeBron James as a 15-year-old). Player Personnel Director Ed Stefanski is a bit harder to figure, but seems like he might have the traditional scout’s bias toward tools. And those won’t be the only voices in the room, with new head coach David Fizdale and longtime international scout Davide Pradi, among others, also at the table.

At the Grizzlies' spot in the middle of the first round, there are potentially production vs. tools contrasts in need of sorting at each position. At point guard, Wade Baldwin has the physical attributes while Tyler Ulis has the better track record. On the wing, college veterans Denzel Valentine, Taurean Prince and DeAndre Bembry have the body of work, but the long frames and athletic upside of Malachi Richardson and Timothe Luwawu seem starrier. Upfront, Domantas Sabonis gobbles up points and rebounds, but Cheick Diallo and Thon Maker have raw athleticism that can tantalize.

Will the question of tools vs. production be sorted out on a case-by-case basis, or will the Grizzlies have an organizational philosophy that tilts one way or the other? And does the coaching change, with the player development-oriented Fizdale now at the helm, give the Grizzlies more license to tap tools, with the confidence that they will now be better at molding raw clay?

2. Time Frame: The conventional wisdom says to take “the best player available” in the draft, but what does that mean? Does it mean the best player for next season? Does it mean the best player over the length of a four-year rookie contract? Does it mean the best player over the length of a 10-year NBA career? Each of those questions could yield different answers. Typically, I think people mean over the longest of hauls when they deploy that cliche. But on a recent interview on “The Chris Vernon Show,” Chris Wallace volunteered that, relative to the draft, he wasn’t concerned about projecting a player’s career beyond six or seven seasons, by which point most players have switched teams.

My sense is that this is the season in which the Grizzlies shift into a new era, with a four-year window timed around Marc Gasol’s contract and, presumably, Mike Conley’s (which may go to a fifth year). And this draft pick will be more about adding a piece to this coming era, not preparing the next one. So, while I don’t think the Grizzlies will necessarily take the player they believe to be the best right now, I do think they will be putting an emphasis on more near-term impact.

3. Injury Skittishness: The Grizzlies' first-round draft pick from two summers ago, Jordan Adams, has had more knee surgeries (three) than game appearances (two) since his rookie season ended. The team’s first-round pick from last summer, Jarell Martin, is coming off a second foot procedure. Neither player is expected to be available for summer league. Will this make the Grizzlies more skittish about drafting a player with injury/health concerns? If so, this could impact Denzel Valentine (knee), Tyler Ulis (hip), Malik Beasley (leg) or Damian Jones (pectoral), all generally in the mid-first to early-second range.

4. In Defense of Workouts: Before I reveal my own Grizzlies draft board, a note on why I’m less confident about my own draft opinions than I used to be. It’s common to dismiss NBA draft workouts in the evaluation process, but my experience from the years in which the Grizzlies allowed media to view them told another story. Partly, I suppose, it’s because it was my only chance to see most prospects up close, in person, rather than on television or on the internet, and seeing players in person, even in the limited environment of a workout, gives you a better sense of size and athleticism than tape does. It’s also helpful, I think, to see players isolated against other NBA prospects.

For years, I went into workouts armed with a certain idea of a player, gleaned from television and video, stats, scouting reports and conversations -- the entirety of what I have to go on now -- and then seeing them in a workout would shift my opinion, at least a little bit, in one direction or another. And, in retrospect, that opinion shifted in the right direction at least 80 percent of the time. Workouts convinced me that Kevin Love’s game would translate (there were doubts at the time) and Chris Douglas-Roberts’ would mostly not. That Draymond Green would be a high-level NBA player and that Greivis Vasquez’s size and vision would trump his lack of foot speed. That Anthony Randolph (too raw) and Luke Babbitt (too stiff) weren’t quite what I thought they were.

Which is all to say, that, now that the Grizzlies (understandably) don’t allow media to see the workouts, I can’t give them draft advice quite as well-informed. Their loss.

5. Pick-and-Pop Draft Board: Without further adieu, and with all preceding caveats in place, here’s this year’s official Pick-and-Pop-endorsed draft board, of players who seem to at least have a chance of being available when the Grizzlies pick at No. 17. Here and on subsequent lists, I’m including parenthetical, updated prospect rankings from three sites for perspective (Draft Express, ESPN, CBS Sports):

1. Wade Baldwin (14, 18, 16): I’ve been torn on the tools vs. production question for Baldwin. The 6-4 size, the gaudy +7 (hat-tip to Peter Edmiston) wing span, the strong athletic testing, the north of 40 percent three-point shooting vs. the sense that his team underperformed its talent with him at the helm. But I’ve come around: While not the purest of point guards, I think Baldwin can be good enough on the ball to soak up the back-up minutes behind Mike Conley while being big enough to play alongside Conley, thus increasing his usage beyond that of a pure backup point guard. His ability to spot up will help him play not only with Conley, but have value off the ball playing with Marc Gasol and hopefully some kind of ballhandling wing acquired in free agency or trade. And Baldwin’s ability to be potentially an elite defender at the point guard spot is especially valuable in a conference with Steph Curry, Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard and Chris Paul. Tony Allen can’t be your situational on-ball defender forever. Even if Baldwin is just a multi-positional three-and-D role player, that’s still a really valuable thing to have. Baldwin has been slotted at No. 17 in some places, but mock-draft momentum suggests he might be off the board before the Grizzlies pick.

2. Domantas Sabonis (18, 10, 10): Sabonis is the kind of player -- a conventional PF/C, one who doesn’t protect the rim or (so far) stretch the floor -- that I think the Grizzlies would be reluctant to take. And yet, if he’s there at 17 he might just be too good to pass up. Sabonis has short arms relative to his height and there are some questions about his athleticism, but he’s big, tough, skilled and super-productive, with the added bonus of some Hall of Fame basketball genes. (Ones that might suggest he can add three-point range just like the old man did.) Like Baldwin, Sabonis has been linked to the Grizzlies in some mock drafts, but seems to be moving up.

3a. Denzel Valentine (25, 22, 19): I’m pretty torn on these next two names, for different reasons. Both are wing players with both strong positive markers and serious red flags. Valentine has a pretty big question mark about the long-term status of his surgically repaired knee that has caused him to tumble from late lottery to the late first round in most mocks. That’s a big concern, but not in of itself a disqualifier. With that aforementioned four-year window in mind, I could still see the Grizzlies taking Valentine if they’re convinced the knee won’t be an issue until later in Valentine’s career. Just as big of a concern, for me, would be that Valentine’s late-bloomer status (he wasn’t on the NBA radar until his junior season) and high-usage college role might suggest a player whose big-time college production won’t translate. But, pending medical concerns, I’m persuaded by Valentine’s length (6-6 with a 6-11 wingspan), prolific three-point shooting (44 percent on nearly 8 attempts per game) and ability to make plays (high assists).

3b. Timothe Luwawu (12, 33, 13): Watch film on French swingman Luwawu and he just oozes upside: A physically developed 6-7 with a 7-1 wingspan who is both smooth and explosive and has shown an improving three-point stroke. Yet he’s older (but still only 21) than a lot of international prospects, and still not fully cemented in terms of consistency and feel for the game. Based on what I know, I would probably roll the dice, but the Grizzlies know more.

5. Ivica Zubac (16, 25, 15): I would probably have Zubac third in a vacuum, but so many qualifiers work against him: Time frame (he’s 19) and need (he’s a pure center on a team with big holes at wing and backup point guard) among them. But I just feel like this Adriatic League behemoth (7-1, 260 pounds, 7-4 wingspan) is a strong bet to be better than his draft position. He doesn’t have Marc Gasol’s passing, defense or feel for the game, but he looks a lot like him on the block: Huge, fundamentally sound, and the ability to finish with either hand. And he seems to have considerably more lift than Gasol did at the same age. There are just very, very few humans on the planet with this blend of size and skill who aren’t athletic stiffs. Seems like a longshot, but there’s also this:

Zubac said he scheduled only 4 workouts, for teams who inquired most and scouted him in Europe: #Pistons, #Grizzlies, #Raptors and #Celtics. — Rod Beard (@detnewsRodBeard) June 20, 2016

I also like Zubac’s so-far more productive fellow 19-year-old Adriatic League center, Ante Zizic (22, 21, 14), to be a good buy in the draft. But I like Zubac’s offensive upside more.

6. The Grizzlies May Disagree: That’s who I would pick, and I suspect some -- maybe even all -- of them would be under consideration for the Grizzlies. But there’s some heat around a few other prospects whom the Grizzlies may like more than I do. The most likely culprits:

Malachi Richardson (35, 15, 29): An odd little mock-draft hiccup over the weekend: Draft Express (via Yahoo’s The Vertical) reported that the Grizzlies have promised to take the one-and-done Syracuse swingman at No. 17, but then later apparently rescinded (or at least deleted) this report, while still projecting Richardson to Memphis.

What’s going on here? Who knows? The team denies making a promise, but if it were true would they admit it? And there’s a lot of history here, real or imagined. Last year, there was a pre-draft report that the team had made a promise to Jarell Martin, who later said that the team had told him they would take him while at the same time expressing concern that they might not. To me, this sounds like what ESPN’s Chad Ford refers to as a “soft promise,” which is essentially “we will take you if the draft plays out as expected, barring unexpected players slipping or trade opportunities.” Remember: One piece of alleged evidence last season was that Martin had cancelled workouts after coming to Memphis with some kind of phantom injury. Except that it turned out that Martin’s injury was very real.

Unlike everyone on the above list except for Zubac (and like everyone on this list except for DeJounte Murray), Richardson did work out in Memphis. Have the Grizzlies promised him? I don’t know. I hope not, both because I think it’s bad policy and because I have a lot of doubts about Richardson at No. 17. That doesn’t mean I can’t foresee Richardson being a high-level player: He’s got great size for a two guard (6-6, 7-0 wingspan), is a good athlete, has three-point shooting potential, and seems more equipped than most in this draft to create offense off the dribble. But he’s old for his class and despite that and this bundle of enticing tools, he just wasn’t that good last year (notice a trend with these players?):

Only 3 players in last 30 years were drafted in the same season after posting a 2P% under 40%: Randy Livingston, Andrew Harrison, Josh Selby — Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) June 19, 2016

This year, at least one more (Malachi Richardson) will be added to that list. Isaiah Whitehead and Fred VanVleet are two more candidates. — Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) June 19, 2016

On one hand, I can see the Grizzlies molding this clay into a high-level starter who would be a steal at No. 17. I could also see him just never being a real NBA player. High risk, high reward.

Taurean Prince (19, 34, 22): As far as I know, Prince is the only first-round prospect to come in for a second draft workout in Memphis, making a second appearance on Sunday. Once upon a time, Kyle Lowry came in for a late second workout, and was eventually drafted. So I would assume Grizzlies interest in Prince is serious. No draft picks are safe, but I like Prince as a relatively good bet to be a productive NBA player, while having little chance of being a high-level starter, much less a star. That kind of low ceiling but high floor is worth a look outside the lottery, but at No. 17 it still feels like settling a little bit. Prince is a biggish small forward who is good at a lot of things (athleticism, rebounding, three-point shooting, maybe defense) but not great at anything. I would like him better if the Grizzlies acquired a second pick a little bit later, but I wouldn’t hate it at No. 17.

Tyler Ulis (28, 23, 18): Ulis is a fantastic pure basketball player who apparently had a terrific workout in Memphis matched-up with fellow first-round point guard hopeful Demetrius Jackson. Despite his paltry size (5-9, 150 pounds), you can convince yourself -- and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Grizzlies have -- that Ulis can thrive in the NBA via his ability to control an offense and sling darts from mid-range like a Chris Paul Mini Me. I can see this too. But he’s Just. So. Small. Add in reports of a potential hip problem and the presence of another smallish point guard the team is about to invest in heavily, and I can’t see it at No. 17.

Projects: I would be very surprised to see the Grizzlies draft a raw forward like Cheick Diallo (24, 27, 31) or Thon Maker (41, 19, 32), but they are both considered first-round contenders and they both came in for workouts. An intriguing name to file away: DeJounte Murray (30, 9, 34) (aka Tony Wroten 2.0), a high-upside guard who could be tempting if he’s still on the board.

7. Frontcourt Slippers: There are three frontcourt players who are almost universally projected to go in the back half of the lottery, who don’t fill obvious needs for the Grizzlies and who the team has not worked out, and yet I would predict that one of them slips through and forces a tough decision. They are, in order of my own interest: Deyonta Davis (11, 16, 9), who seems like a bigger, smoother Ed Davis; Henry Ellenson (13, 11, 17), who could be an interesting stretch big in the more-Channing Frye-than-Kevin Love mold, but who so far has been more shooter than maker; and hometown (sort of) product Skal Labissiere (10, 13, 11), who can thank prep-school YouTube sensation Thon Maker for not being the poster boy in this draft for “tools without production.”

8. Second-Round Contenders: The Grizzlies pick No. 57, which is too far down to really project, but I’ll throw out a few names, limiting myself to players who are listed outside the Top 40 on at least two of the three prospect rankings:

Gary Payton II (48, 56, 53): Earl Watson plus pedigree. Payton is a middling prospect as a shooter and playmaker, but has chance to be an elite defender at point guard.

Kay Felder (56, 49, 48): Undersized ball of dynamite who put up huge numbers, including on the rare occasions where he got to face top teams. Small (5-10) guards like this are always a longshot, but I could not pass on him at No. 57.

A.J. Hammons (43, 46, 43): Super-sized Mo Speights, both in terms of game and temperamental concerns. One of the oldest players in the draft, but huge, skilled and very much worth a shot if he slips.

Fred VanVleet (83, 61, 50): Small and not much of an athlete, but a polished playmaker with three-point range that some published stat-based projections are high on.

Dorian Finney-Smith (58, 73, 80): Older, but is a 6-8 wing with a 7-0 wingspan, good athletic indicators and a jumper (37 percent from three on 5.4 attempts). Role player potential.

Wayne Selden (47, 69, 54): I’m not really a fan, but he’s got the size, shooting stroke and high school prospect pedigree. Also: Went to Kansas. A perfect Chris Wallace pick.

Robert Carter (44, 51, 55): Good length. Might be able to stretch the floor a little bit at the four without giving up too much on the boards.

Caris LeVert (46, 41, 51): Big lead guard. NBA talent, Major injury issues.

Jarrod Uthoff (59, 36, 56) and Isaiah Cousins (65, 39, 84): Perimeter shooters of varying sizes. Don’t have a feel, but both are solidly in the second round of mocks and both worked out in Memphis.

9. A Prediction of Movement: It’s one of my cardinal rules of prognostication that it’s always more likely that something won’t happen than that it will, and yet I feel like the odds are tilted slightly in favor of some kind of draft night move. Back in February, in trading Jeff Green and Courtney Lee, the Grizzlies acquired one future first-round pick and four future second-round picks and I suggested at the time that at least one of these assets would be spent as a trade chip rather than becoming an actual pick for the Grizzlies.

The way this draft is set up, there seems to be potential for movement in the late first and early second round: Boston has three picks in the first round, including No. 23, as well as picks at 31, 35 and 45 (the Grizzlies pick). Denver has three first-rounders, including 19. Philadelphia has three first-rounders, including 24 and 26. Phoenix has three first-rounders, including 28, as well as 34. Additionally, picks at 20 (Indiana), 22 (Charlotte) and 27 (Toronto, their second first-rounder) are rumored to be in play.

Those are the teams and picks to keep an eye on, and there will be lots of interesting calculations at work: Teams with three or more picks in the Top 40 are unlikely to want to use them all on roster players for next season. They may be weighing the value of draft-and-stash international or D-League (see: Harrison, Andrew) candidates against the opportunity to exchange excess picks now for future picks that can still be trade chips. In general, will teams more greatly value picks this year (thought to be a weak draft, but locked into an extremely favorable salary structure) or later (projected to be better drafts, but with potentially less favorable salary rules)?

Regardless, my guess is that the Grizzlies, with a shaky cupboard of young players and a dicey free agent summer ahead, will try to parlay one or more of those future picks into another pick in the late first or early second round of this draft. We’ll see.

10. The Draft is Fun: If you’ve actually made it this far -- high five! -- you must love the NBA, and the NBA Draft, as much as I do. The draft is among my favorite national holidays. Yes, agents and stylists have professionalized it to the point of removing most of the prom-night vibe it once had. And, yes, Tweeting reporters pursuing phony scoops (I refuse to credit the journalistic value of reporting a pick in the minutes and seconds it takes to travel from draft room to podium) force a choice between fun social media group chatter and surprise. But it remains a celebration of hope, oddity, unintentional humor and NBA nerdom. Order some pizzas. Put something cold on ice. Let’s do this.