11) Hudson Potts, 3B

Age: 20

.260/.335/.455, 19 HR, .194 ISO, 112 wRC+, 8.7% BB, 26.8% K, 4 SB

Highest Level: AA

Potts made a late-season jump to Double-A after playing 106 games with Lake Elsinore in 2018. He then played 21 games in the Arizona Fall League where he posted a .697 OPS. That totals an aggressive 600 plate appearances and 149 games played for a 20-year-old with under 800 plate appearances between 2016 and 2017. This sets up Potts nicely for a strong run with Amarillo next season and a late-season call-up to El Paso before the seasons finishes.

His frame is big at 6-foot-3, which could be considered a reason for his swing and miss tendencies. The main reason for the above average strikeout rates come from his stance. He sets up relatively wide with low hands in front of his chest. His bat drifts back and up into his load, but there’s an extra motion where he flattens his bat slightly around his shoulder, adding a subtle amount of length that probably causes him some issues from a contact perspective. His lower half is engaged, but his swing is largely upper body, as his stride is more of a pick up, put down motion with his front foot. His bat speed is good enough to make up for a decent amount of the mechanical funkiness, but it’s not insane to expect a fix or two smoothing his mechanics out to save his strikeout rate as he ascends through the minor leagues.

I have Potts currently as a 50 future value third baseman with above average defensive ability at third base and the potential to hit 20-25 home runs at the major league level. I think he has a relatively safe profile with a slight chance some more swing and miss comes out at higher levels, but the overall package will find an everyday role.

ETA: 2020

12) Logan Allen, LHP

Age: 21

148.2 IP, 2.54 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 9.14 K/9, 3.09 BB/9, .204 BAA

Highest Level: AAA

Long gone are the days of Padres pitching prospects who can’t legally drink in the United States. Allen is listed at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, a solid pitchers body that should be able to hold to larger workloads and push deep into outings. His fastball, and particularly his command of it, is one of the key elements in this rank. It only sits 93-94 at its height, but the pitch projects to be above average. His best breaking ball is an above average slider that is harder in velocity around 86-88 mph. He mixes a slow curveball in as a velocity differential off his two most-used pitches, both of which are only separated by about 6 mph on average. He flashes a changeup as well that many consider above average to plus and can eventually develop into his best offering to right-handed hitters at peak.

His delivery is sound, working with a rotational structure from the start of his motion. He does engage his back leg just prior to front foot plant, resulting in more drive that expected from the start and it works well. He’s able to be relatively dynamic and extend his front leg well enough to generate the velocity he is able to get, but there probably isn’t much more in the tank without sacrificing a grade of command. For an eighth-round pick, the Padres have developed Allen well into a viable back-end starter. Given the sheer quantity of arms in this system, it would not be surprising to see a player like Allen shipped elsewhere for a decent return given the floor in his profile. He’s not as exciting, but sometimes effective doesn’t have to stand out.

Allen is a 50 future value starting pitcher with four pitches at least sitting average the ability to grow into average command. It’s a starters package and one that is overlooked given the sheer upside most of the starting pitchers have in this system. Allen does not have that upside, but his profile is still encouraging and worth monitoring given the proximity to his debut.

ETA: 2019

13) Xavier Edwards, 2B/SS

Age: 19

.346/.453/.409, 19 HR, .063 ISO, 150 wRC+, 15.9% BB, 12.8% K, 22 SB

Highest Level: A-

Edwards has been one of the strongest risers from the 2018 draft class, posting gaudy speed-based numbers at lower levels of the minor leagues. He’s considered at a true 80-grade runner who works with a future 60 hit tool and average to slightly above fielding depending on the position. He’s mainly played shortstop in his 45-game 2018, but given the presumed development tracks of Tatis Jr. and Arias, there’s a chance he moves to second base as his defense will likely not surpass either.

His swing is simple, starting with his bat on his shoulder and knees slightly bent. He utilizes a small thigh-high leg kick that he starts early and couples it with a small hand pump that brings his barrel nearly perpendicular to the ground before dropping slightly into his load. His swing has very little loft at the moment, posting well above average ground-ball rates at the two levels he saw at-bats. The issue with expecting change is worrying about whether he has enough raw power to make use of lifting the ball. And if he does opt for fly balls, in any capacity, is it deviating too much from the natural slap hitter he is and underutilizing his best tool: speed? For the most part, I think Edwards should remain a heavy ground-ball bat and cause havoc on the base paths. His approach displayed in the minor leagues so far removes the worry he ends up a Terrance Gore duplicate that needs to be pinch run to utilize his speed.

I think Edwards is presently a 50 future value player with a hit tool good enough to make the most of his 80-grade speed. I expect him to start in Fort Wayne next season and am particularly interested in seeing the lefty in action. Fort Wanye last season under Manager Anthony Contreras had a tendency to run often, taking advantage of developing and new pitchers to the level. If Esteury Ruiz can steal 49 in the Midwest League, Edwards is capable of much more—a scary thought.

ETA: 2021

14) Josh Naylor, 1B/OF

Age: 21

.297/.383/.447, 17 HR, .150 ISO, 128 wRC+, 11.1% BB, 12% K, 5 SB

Highest Level: AA

Naylor is big-bodied hitter with a 70 raw power and a future 60 hit tool. The issue is the lack of actualization of that power in-game, which brings him down to something like a 50 game power bat. He is large, does not run well and does not field well. For all of his career, he played first base. Last season, Preller & Co. decided to silence all the critics (or antagonize them?) by putting the 250-pound man in left field, where he made 11 errors in 89 games. When you have first base locked down with Eric Hosmer through 2025, it causes some creativity at the minor league level to find positions for players if an organization actually thinks Naylor can hit at the major league level, which he likely can and will.

His swing is smooth and compact. He resembles Rockies prospect Brendan Rodgers from the left side. I know how crazy that sounds given their difference in physicality, but simple flat bat movement pre-pitch and his small leg kick while he drops his hands into his load is very similar. Naylor tinkered with his hand placement in the Arizona Fall League back in 2017, but reverted back to his natural stance, which hasn’t really changed since his first days as a Padre in 2016.

Because of how good his bat is, I envision Naylor as a 50 future value first baseman/left fielder. It’s hard to see him with an everyday role in San Diego given their depth at a lot of positions. It’s also hard to see him on another team given every team’s one player who will likely become a Josh Naylor-type asset and move to first base. This leaves Preller with a good, offensive-minded player hurt by how good his organization is. For purposes of pure grading and valuation, I believe we have to remove the circumstantial elements out of his control and grade the player as is.

ETA: 2020

15) Esteury Ruiz, 2B

Age: 19

.253/.324/.403, 12 HR, .150 ISO, 108 wRC+, 7.7% BB, 28.6% K, 49 SB

Highest Level: A-

Ruiz is a prospect I initially wasn’t in on in my first looks of 2018. I honed in on the lack of a defensive position and didn’t think the bat could impress me enough to warrant average everyday regular consideration despite his shortcomings. I realized after my initial looks I was partially wrong. It’s correct Ruiz doesn’t have a defensive position. He’s a below average second basemen who doesn’t project to improve and I’ve heard some thoughts he moves to left field eventually because him arm isn’t good enough for right field. But Ruiz’s bat is good enough to warrant major league consideration, even heading into his age-20 season.

He is an extremely wiry despite being only 6-foot. His set up is wide, with both knees slightly inverted into a crouch as he lowers his center of gravity. He starts his hands at his head and quietly starts his hands back as he uses a double toe tap for timing purposes and achieves fantastic separation for what may appear as a disengaged lower half. His entire swing is quick, from his hands to his bat speed. The product of his swings are largely fly balls. I would consider him a player with an exceptionally natural attack angle on path with baseballs coming in. I expect him to add more strength as he ages, resulting in harder hit balls and more power. Given his attack angle’s tendency for fly balls, there shouldn’t be any problem in these turning into home runs. His average might suffer because of it—fly balls will dampen his BABIP—but the power is here.

There are continual comparisons to Alfonso Soriano because of this set up and the aesthetics of his swing. I spoke with him through a translator about this very point and despite some belief that his favorite player was in fact Soriano as a child, I received an answer of the matter being coincidental. I would say the jury is still out on whether he emulated his swing after Soriano, given Soriano’s peak was when Ruiz was only 3-8 years old. It could be a fun narrative fans have run with. And for what it’s worth, Ruiz didn’t seem to mind.

Oddly enough, I don’t think he has 40-steal speed. I don’t think anybody who has seen him live thinks that. It’s decent straight-line speed, above average, but it will peak around 20-25 at the major league level. Fort Wayne was a quick team and Ruiz had the green light and is exceptionally smart on the base paths and adept at reading pitchers. This isn’t Xavier Edwards.

Ruiz is a 50 future value second baseman, outfielder with 50 future hit and 60 power. I believe some have him as a 55/55 player, but I think the approach develops into power over average given his fly balls. His bat and efficient base running will take him far, even if his defense perpetually remains a question mark.

ETA: 2021