Harry Reid’s retirement announcement last month upends the Senate landscape, giving Republicans a rare opportunity for offense in an otherwise defensive 2016 election cycle.

But where does it fit among the parties’ biggest targets next year?


Reid always faced a dogfight for another term in Nevada, but his departure means Democrats will be defending an unpredictable open seat on terrain where they were eviscerated just a few months ago. On the other hand, they’ll be free of Reid’s long-term baggage and close association with insider politics.

It’s all part of why, at the outset of a new political cycle, we consider Reid’s seat among the most likely to switch parties. But it’s not No. 1 on our list — for now.

As we ranked the competitiveness of each race, we considered as many factors as possible: Who the strongest potential challengers are and the likelihood they enter the race, the cash position of incumbents, the general political lean of their states in presidential years and the X-factor issues that could come into play. The slotting ultimately came down to which candidate’s shoes we’d rather be in — Mark Kirk’s or Ron Johnson’s, for example.

Standard caveats apply: It’s early. Some incumbents may still decide to retire. Some top-tier candidates might decline to run, affecting the competitiveness of races in their respective states. And fundraising numbers due for release next month could reshape expectations.

But what follows is the POLITICO Campaign Pro team’s bird’s-eye view of the Senate races as they stand today, ranked by how likely they are to shift from one party to the other.

1. Illinois

No incumbent faces headwinds as stiff as Republican Sen. Mark Kirk.

Kirk, who hails from the Chicago suburbs, is asking voters expected to deliver a double-digit victory to a Democratic presidential nominee to split their tickets and send him back to Washington.

To be sure, he has a compelling narrative — and he plans to use it to his advantage. A stroke survivor who now crisscrosses the Capitol in a wheelchair, Kirk has overcome physical limits to maintain an energetic schedule.

But Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth, a double amputee who fought in the Iraq War, has her own story of resilience.

Firebrand conservative Joe Walsh has been threatening to primary Kirk. And while there are questions about Walsh’s seriousness, a Republican-on-Republican skirmish could drag Kirk to the right, which would undercut his moderate image in the deep-blue state.

It all adds up to an immediate underdog label for Kirk.

2. Wisconsin

Wisconsin could just have easily held the top spot on this list. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is one of the Senate’s most conservative members but hails from one of the nation’s most polarized states. He narrowly won election in 2010, ousting Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold — who may want revenge.

A rematch between the two would likely favor the Democrat in a state carried twice by President Barack Obama. And Johnson started the race with a paltry $600,000 on hand and $600,000 in debt — though he reportedly raised $1.2 million in the first quarter of this year.

That said, Johnson’s best asset is his ability to self-fund a campaign. He’s also well-liked by the big-spending Koch brothers, who are sure to support his reelection. The well-honed political machine of newly reelected Republican Gov. Scott Walker could be a difference-maker too.

The fact that Wisconsin is still a relative swing state, compared to Illinois, keeps this race out of the top slot.

3. Nevada

Nevada’s Senate race begins with an immediate disclaimer: If popular Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval runs, this race could leapfrog to the top of the list.

Sandoval cruised to reelection in November with 70 percent of the vote, and national Republicans have been goading him to consider a Senate bid. But Sandoval appears unlikely to make the jump, which keeps this seat firmly in the toss-up column.

Though he’s not running, Reid has built a potent political machine that can marshal significant fundraising and ground support for his preferred successor, Catherine Cortez Masto. It can also meddle in GOP politics to shake up a volatile primary field, as Reid did in 2010. Back then, the emergence of a weakened, error-prone Sharron Angle helped Reid narrowly win reelection.

One factor that puts this race high on the list: Democrats saw their best prospects wiped out last year. Strong candidates like Ross Miller, who ran for attorney general last year, would be tainted by embarrassing losses. They lost every statewide race and all but one federal race — Rep. Dina Titus is the lone Democrat in the Nevada House delegation.

On the other hand, Nevada went twice for Obama and is home to one of the fastest-growing Latino populations in the country, which could tilt the state toward Democrats.

Another upside for Democrats? Republicans are struggling to identify the right standard-bearer to take on Reid. But their list of suitors is long. It also includes Rep. Joe Heck, a close second to Sandoval on the depth chart. State Sen. Michael Roberson, Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison and former Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki are on the next rung.

4. Pennsylvania

Republican Sen. Pat Toomey is another conservative freshman facing a rematch. His comes against Democrat Joe Sestak, a former congressman who started the year with a robust bank account for a challenger.

Toomey’s problem, like Kirk’s, is fundamental. Pennsylvania is a reliably Democratic presidential state, and Toomey cuts a right-leaning profile that’s a little outside his state’s mainstream. Though not as blue as Illinois, it went twice for President Barack Obama by solid margins. If Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, a Republican Senate win will likely require a lot of Clinton-Toomey voters.

From left to right: Pat Toomey and Joe Sestak. | Getty

That’s why the former Club for Growth leader has taken a few moderate positions heading into election season, including his decision to cosponsor a gun-background-check bill with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). Though the bill didn’t advance, it drew the ire of gun rights activists accustomed to Republican support.

Sestak’s challenge is overcoming the disdain of the Democratic establishment. He infuriated leaders when he ran against and beat Arlen Specter in the 2010 Democratic primary. That’s why some Democratic leaders in the state are actively looking for an alternative candidate, though no one has emerged.

5. New Hampshire

New Hampshire’s reputation as a political shapeshifter makes it a perennial question mark for election forecasters. Democrats hoping to unseat GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte are going to need a top-tier candidate, and they think they have one in popular Gov. Maggie Hassan.

But that’s only if Hassan runs. The second-term Democrat has indicated she won’t decide which office to run for until after her state’s budget process ends in June, and operatives in the state say she’s legitimately undecided about whether to seek a third two-year term as governor.

The state went for Obama twice; its narrow Democratic lean in presidential years could be enough to keep the Senate race competitive, whether or not Hassan runs.

Even with Hassan in the race, Ayotte still has an even shot at winning, and the rising prominence of national security issues could play to one of her strengths.

6. Florida

Sen. Marco Rubio is expected to announce his candidacy for the GOP presidential nomination this month — and he’s vowed to leave his seat if he does. That puts Florida on the map as a potential Democratic pickup. The state has narrowly gone for Democrats in the past two presidential elections, and demographics have shifted even more favorably in the party’s direction.

Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, 31, is the first declared candidate for the seat, and he has the support of party leaders, including Reid, who’s working to keep the primary field clear for him. Murphy has been a prolific fundraiser in the House, and his relatively moderate profile meshes well with the voters Democrats need to win statewide.

Working against Democrats is the fact that even without Rubio on the ticket, Republicans have a pair of statewide figures eyeing a bid: CFO Jeff Atwater and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera. Either would start with a name-ID advantage.

From left to right: Jeff Atwater, Patrick Murphy, and Carlos Lopez-Cantera. | AP Photo

Florida, like the other states on this list, has trended Democratic in recent presidential cycles, but it’s always on a knife’s edge. Though open seats are generally more easy to flip than seats with incumbents, we put this behind New Hampshire because of Murphy’s low name-ID around Florida and an uphill climb he’ll have against potential candidates likelier to have a statewide pedigree.

7. Colorado

The Rocky Mountain State is the only other Republican pickup opportunity on the map.

Sen. Michael Bennet scraped his way to a win in 2010 — a rare Democratic bright spot in that GOP wave year — but watched his counterpart, Democratic Sen. Mark Udall, ousted last November by Republican Cory Gardner, then in the House. Republicans are hopeful they can pull off the feat again in a presidential year.

Bennet started the cycle with $1.2 million on hand, a surprisingly low sum for an incumbent who most recently helmed the Democratic Party’s Senate campaign arm.

But Colorado is another state that’s leaned Democratic in presidential years, and there may not be another Gardner-caliber candidate for the GOP to run. Bennet survived one GOP wave in 2010, and he’s not likely to get caught sleeping like Udall was.

8. Ohio

Insiders don’t view Sen. Rob Portman as vulnerable. He’s a fundraising powerhouse in a state that’s consistently part of a decisive bloc in presidential elections. He’s close with the GOP establishment and has even earned mentions as a formidable vice presidential contender, though he ended speculation about his own presidential ambition months ago.

But this race is as likely to rise or fall with the presidential election as any. If Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee and can navigate her way to a multi-point win in Ohio, she’s likely to bring former Gov. Ted Strickland with her. But if, as usual, Ohio comes down to the wire, Portman should be able to survive.

Working against Republicans is the fact that Portman’s kept a relatively low profile as a senator, leaving room for Democrats to define him — and his long stint in the George W. Bush administration is fodder for critics. His likely opponent Strickland has serious fundraising chops of his own.

The race comes in behind Florida because we’d rather be in Portman’s shoes as an incumbent than the ultimate GOP nominee in Florida.

9. North Carolina

North Carolina is the first state on this list that wasn’t carried twice by Obama. The state has trended more Democratic in recent years — and even during last year’s Republican rout, Democrats only narrowly lost a fierce Senate battle there.

GOP Sen. Richard Burr doesn’t face outright hostility to his reelection, but he’s relatively under the radar in a state that also has a premier governor’s race on the ballot.

Democrats are waiting on Sen. Kay Hagan, who lost the 2014 race to now-Sen. Thom Tillis and is now contemplating another shot. They’re also eyeing state Treasurer Janet Cowell as a potential prospect.

10. Indiana

Indiana too was carried only once by Obama, but it’s no North Carolina. The state swung hard to the right in 2012, and Democratic success there in recent years has largely been fluky.

Republicans tend to win federal races there, but with the retirement of GOP Sen. Dan Coats, Democrats are hopeful they can pull off an upset, as they did in 2012 when Democrat Joe Donnelly edged Republican Richard Mourdock, whose controversial comments on rape sank him in the final weeks.

Evan Bayh is the party’s best shot at a pickup — he was a two-term governor and two-term senator before leaving office in 2010 — but he’s indicated he’s highly unlikely to do it, despite his $10 million campaign account taunting national Democratic recruiters. Instead, Democrats could turn to former Rep. Baron Hill. Republicans who pass on 2016 may have another bite of the apple in 2018, when Donnelly is up for reelection.

For Republicans, several House members are considering bids, including conservative favorite Marlin Stutzman and Reps. Jackie Walorski and Todd Young. But the early energy is with Eric Holcomb, Coats’ former chief of staff (he departed last week to prepare for a run), the first formal entrant in the race.

11. Missouri

In Missouri — a state that’s trended increasingly conservative in recent cycles — Democrats have placed their faith in 33-year-old Secretary of State Jason Kander.

A Kander win in Missouri would be an upset, though. GOP Sen. Roy Blunt has largely toed the party line, hasn’t angered conservatives but has some establishment cred. Obama nearly won here in 2008, and Democrats have managed to win statewide races — they hold the governorship and AG posts. In fact, Attorney General Chris Koster is the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor at this early juncture.

Democrats are more likely to keep the governor’s mansion than to topple Blunt.

12. Alaska

The only chance that this race switches parties is if some version of 2010’s Republican primary morass repeats itself — and Democrats run a perfect campaign.

Back then, Sen. Lisa Murkowski lost her primary bid to tea party-backed Joe Miller but managed to reclaim her seat by mounting a write-in campaign and winning a three-way contest.

Miller has toyed with another bid for the seat, but Murkowski is less likely to get caught flatfooted again.

On the Democratic side, Mark Begich, just a few months removed from losing his seat to Sen. Dan Sullivan, is considering a comeback. He’s working on health care policy issues in Washington for now, but he’s kept his political options open, turning down only a chance to return to his old job as mayor of Anchorage. A combined Begich bid and Republican flop would make this race worth watching.

If Murkowski wins the GOP nomination, this race falls off the list.

13. Arizona

Events would also have to conspire to put Arizona in play. Sen. John McCain — who has said he’s almost certainly running for reelection though he isn’t officially in the race — is disliked by conservatives. But if he emerges from the Republican primary, he’s all but a lock to win a sixth term.

Where it gets interesting is in the field of conservatives considering a challenge. So far, only state Sen. Kelli Ward has indicated she’s serious about mounting a bid, shopping interviews to national media and touting “Ward for Arizona” Facebook and Twitter handles that all but commit to a race. But she’s little known outside of her state Senate district.

From left to right: Krysten Sinema, Kelli Ward Gage Skidmore and John McCain. | AP Photo/Getty/Flickr

Conservatives are really girding for a bid by Rep. Matt Salmon, a favorite of big-spending groups like the Club for Growth. If he runs and topples McCain, he’d still be the favorite in the general election. But if a rising Democratic prospect like Rep. Kyrsten Sinema decides to jump into the field, she might have a better shot against the lesser-known Salmon.

Unlike in Alaska, Democrats don’t have a proven Begich-like candidate to turn to, cementing this state as No. 13 on our list.

14. Georgia

Democrats made some noise in Georgia in 2014, running solid races for Senate and governor but ultimately falling short in both. That’s given them hope to compete in the reliable Republican state — but it’s a long shot at best.

Sen. Johnny Isakson is a relatively safe incumbent, and he started early to stave off any intraparty threats. That’s left him well-positioned to focus on the general election.

Dems showed they can draw concern from national Republicans here, so this state isn’t entirely off the radar. But it’s another example of contest that would have to go flawlessly for Democrats and miserably for Republicans to be close.

In short, we’d rather be Isakson than McCain, but being either of them wouldn’t be so bad.

15. Kentucky

Kentucky is safe Republican turf when it comes to federal elections, despite its penchant for electing Democratic governors.

Here, the intrigue rests with GOP Sen. Rand Paul, whose presidential bid could keep the seat in flux. If he’s on the ballot for both races but ultimately succeeds at the presidential level, he’ll have to give up his bid and potentially hand the reins to a weaker nominee with less time to spare — assuming the courts allow the GOP to replace him.

Democrats have a few potential candidates who could compete statewide against someone who isn’t named Paul, but none have stepped forward. Though there’s a whisper of a chance Democrats can play here, they’d need Paul’s presidential campaign to go very well. Even if Paul flames out early in his White House bid, he’d likely coast to a second Senate term.