Since this story was posted, Young Kim, Bob Huff and Shawn Nelson announced bids for Royce’s seat. Read this story about the Kim, Huff and Nelson candidacies.

With Republicans scrambling to determine who will run to replace GOP Rep. Ed Royce, two lesser-known party members quickly stepped forward Tuesday — a day after the longtime Orange County congressman’s unexpected announcement that he will not seek reelection.

The race had already been targeted by Democrats — who have six candidates running so far — and is considered key if they are to flip the 24 Republican seats necessary to take control of the House this year. Royce’s retirement is buoying Democrats’ hopes for taking the seat.

Republicans hold a negligible 1.7 percentage point voter registration advantage in the district, which includes portions of northern Orange County, eastern Los Angeles County and southwestern San Bernardino County. Hillary Clinton topped Donald Trump in the district’s 2016 presidential vote.

Republican La Mirada City Councilman Andrew Sarega, 30, said Tuesday he was committing $200,000 of his own money to launch his campaign. Sarega is a retired Newport Beach police officer who was injured in the line of duty, according to the news release announcing his bid.

Sarega has occasionally butted heads with fellow council members. In the council’s 2017 selection of mayor pro tem, Sarega was passed over for the third straight year with outgoing Mayor Steve De Ruse citing an attendance record that included 19 missed meetings. Sarega responded that he’d had personal issues, including three surgeries, according to the Whittier Daily News.

Also moving onto the campaign radar was accountant John Cullum, who announced that he was “strongly considering” a bid for the office. Cullum ran against then-Rep. Loretta Sanchez, D-Santa Ana, in 2012 and 2014 but failed to make it out of the primary. He also ran unsuccessfully for Placentia City Council in 2002.

More candidates expected

Many believe potential Republican candidates with higher profiles are busy assessing their support base and getting key campaign pieces in place before announcing bids.

“Wait a week or so and you’ll see lots of new folks,” said Raphael Sonenshein, executive director of the CSU Los Angeles’ Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs.

The 66-year-old Royce, in his 13th term, is serving his final year as chairman of the prominent House Foreign Affairs Committee, with Republicans limiting chairmanships to six years. Facing a rigorous campaign to retain his seat, Royce said he wanted to devote all of his attention and energy in his last year as chairman to making a difference in Congress, particularly in addressing the regimes in Iran and North Korea and Russia’s “weaponization of information.”

The announcement resulted in the Cook Political Report promptly changing its rating of the race from “leans Republican” to “leans Democrat.” Sacramento-based handicapper Scott Lay changed his rating from “leans Republican” to “toss up.” Lay stopped short of moving it into the Democratic column in part because of the possibility that two Republicans could emerge from the top-two primary, leaving Democrats on the sidelines come November.

The large Democratic field contributes to that, as they could split the vote and allow two evenly matched Republicans to advance. Besides the the field of six first-time Democratic candidates in the race, two more have taken out papers and a third could also enter the race, according to Lay.

Too many?

However, Republicans also might flood the field if the GOP is unable convince hopefuls to rally behind one or two candidates.

“We’ll see how disciplined that effort can be,” said Lori Cox Han, a political scientist at Chapman University. “Too many candidates on the GOP side will also split the primary vote and could make the race much more unpredictable.”

Among the many names circulating as possible Republican candidates are county Supervisors Shawn Nelson and Michelle Steel, former state Senate GOP Leader Bob Huff, former Assembly members Ling Ling Chang and Young Kim, Assemblyman Phillip Chen, R-Diamond Bar, and former assemblyman and former Orange County GOP Chairman Scott Baugh.

Baugh and Steel do not live in the district, but district residency is not a requirement. Three of the Democratic candidates lived outside the district when they launched their campaigns.

Democratic candidates in the tri-county race are lottery winner and education philanthropist Gil Cisneros, former congressional aide Sam Jammal, former chemistry professor Phil Janowicz, construction contractor Ted Rusk, businessman Andy Thorburn and pediatrician Mai Khanh Tran. Also running are two independents, business systems analyst Julio Castaneda and freelance journalist Stephan Cox.