New Hampshire poll shows GOP scramble at the top

A new poll portrays the Republican presidential primary field as a muddled mess in the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire, with the four leading candidates separated by only 1 percentage point.

The survey, conducted by the bipartisan, D.C.-based firm Purple Insights for Saint Anselm College and Bloomberg News, shows Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker atop the field, each with 12 percent. Right on their heels are former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who are at 11 percent.

While the top four candidates are the only ones to earn double-digit support, a number of other contenders (and possible contenders) follow close behind. Self-promoting real-estate magnate Donald Trump, who is again toying with a presidential bid, earns 8 percent of the vote. Embattled New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is at 7 percent, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is at 6 percent.

Rounding out the bottom, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson is at 5 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is backed by 4 percent, and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is at 3 percent. A handful of other candidates — Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and Ohio Gov. John Kasich — each got 1 percent.

There is greater clarity in the Democratic primary, where former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains the prohibitive favorite. But Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is far and away the leading Clinton alternative, earning more than three times the support of any other potential rival to Clinton, including Vice President Joe Biden.

The poll shows Clinton with an overwhelming 62 percent of the vote. But Sanders earns 18 percent, outpacing Biden, who’s at 5 percent; former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, at 3 percent; and former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee and former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, both at 1 percent.

New Hampshire will also be a contested, if small-haul, swing state. In the battle for the Granite State’s four electoral votes, Clinton posts 2-point leads over Bush and Rubio, 3 points over Paul and 6 points over Walker.

The poll was conducted May 2-6. For the general election, 500 likely voters were surveyed, for a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. There were oversamples of 400 likely voters for both primary fields; results for each party carry margins of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.