Picture show the similar setup of the behavioral experiments and the AgentEx model. Four individuals/agents share a fictive renewable resource. They have the possibility to communicate, i.e., share knowledge. Image available here

The agent-based model developed for this study simulated how the experiment participants, or "agents", interacted with each other and the renewable resource stock over time. The purpose was to study which conditions cooperation lead to sustainable resource use.

Using an agent-based model allowed the researchers to include elements of human decision-making that are normally unobservable in an experimental setting but may be important for explaining why cooperation is not enough for sustainable resource use. These elements include the knowledge each participant has about the resource dynamics, their confidence in their own knowledge and how prone they are to share it with the other members of the group.

One member can influence the others

The study revealed the importance of having at least one informed and confident member in a group. This member, or agent, was able to stimulate the less informed members of the group to pursue a more sustainable use of the resource.

"The difference that one informed and confident agent can make is significant," Wijermans says.

"Sharing knowledge and being informed and confident has a positive effect on the decisions made by an otherwise uninformed, low-confidence group."

Although the results cannot be used directly to develop policies or management recommendations, the study does provide some insights for community based management of common-pool resources:

a) not every member of a resource user community needs to have perfect ecological knowledge in order for the community to secure the long-term provision of the common-pool resource if that there are processes where sharing of knowledge and experiences is possible

b) knowledge sharing is crucial

c) low confidence in knowledge, which can be interpreted as perceived environmental uncertainty, is not necessarily a bad thing, as it can open up for change and possibilities for learning.

Moreover, this study also impacts research around common-pool resources: it stimulates to also focus on processes beyond cooperation and provides hints for factors that could be included in further (empirical) studies.

Future applications and extensions

In the future, the authors want to use the model to test further hypotheses about individual and collective decision-making and learning as well as incorporating more realistic ecosystem dynamics.

Schill says it would be interesting to allow for more abrupt changes in the availability of the resource, so-called regime shifts and account for their inherent uncertainties.

"For this paper’s purpose, we kept a fairly simple description of the ecological system, but for other purposes it may be fruitful to incorporate more realistic ecosystem dynamics. In the face of ecological changes and uncertainties, confident individuals, knowledgeable about such dynamics might be even more crucial."

"One of the next steps will be to connect back to behavioural experiments in the lab and in the field as well as case study research for guidance about future model extensions and interpretations. This would also allow us to test whether the findings are valid beyond the experimental lab," the authors conclude.

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