A Conservative Majority

Toronto, October 16th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1226 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, if an election were held today the Conservative party would secure support from 4 in 10 (41%), while the Liberals would secure support from about one-third (32%).

The NDP sees support from one-sixth (15%) and the Green party sees support from about 1 in 10 (7%).

Few say they are supporting either the BQ (4%) or another party (1%).

Those respondents more likely to vote Conservative include those aged 35 to 44 (47%) and 45 to 54 (46%), males (49%), those earning $80,000 to $100,000 (48%), the wealthiest (45%), the least educated (49%), and those living in Alberta (69%).

Those respondents more likely to vote Liberal include those aged 55 to 64 (38%) and 65 and above (35%), females (34%), the wealthiest (40%), and those living in Ontario (36%), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (35%), and Atlantic Canada (34%), or Québec (33%).

Seat breakdown

If the election were held today, we project these results would see a Conservative majority government with 184 seats. The Liberals would serve as opposition with 113 seats, and the NDP would serve as third party with 33 seats.

The BQ would win 7, and the Green Party would win 1.

“The Conservatives have a strong lead over the Liberals right now,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “The expected bump from the successful renegotiation of the free trade agreement seems not to have materialized for Trudeau’s Liberals. One question that’s worth asking about one year away from an election: right now, are prospective voters supporting the Conservatives or turning away from the Liberals?”