If Maxime Bernier were to hold a news conference this week, confess to a terrible crime, tearfully apologize and urge people to vote for Erin O’Toole instead of him, it still would not stop him from becoming the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada on Saturday.

About 100,000 Conservative members — likely most of the people who will vote — have already mailed in their ballots, and Bernier has a big lead.

It’s a complicated race, with 14 candidates on a preferential ballot, with the votes weighted by riding. Apparently a lot of ballots have been disqualified, so it’s hard to know with absolute certainty — but everyone with inside info thinks Mad Max has it sewn up.

He deserves a pat on the back. It’s impressive that he has managed to wrest control of Stephen Harper’s party away from the westerners, building a national coalition with little support from caucus or the Harper machine, which backed Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole.

And Bernier did it by presenting interesting ideas, not by appealing to xenophobic, populist feelings.

Interim leader Rona Ambrose did a fine job of steering the ship and exorcising the ghost of Harper, and the Liberals have given the opposition lots of targets to shoot at, so there’s good reason to think that Bernier will enjoy a bit of a honeymoon after the convention.

But a lot of Conservatives are uneasy about Bernier taking over.

Like Stéphane Dion, who took over the Liberal party in 2006, Bernier takes office with a shaky command of English, little support among his fellow MPs and a lot of firm but radical policy ideas.

There’s no way to know whether he will be as bad for his party as Dion was for his, but I get why Conservatives are rattled.

Bernier has been coming to Ottawa as an MP since 2006, but his English is not good enough to communicate effectively with anglo voters.

Those of us in the Ottawa bubble, who are used to listening to bad French from anglo politicians and bad English from francos, aren’t necessarily good at picking up on how politicians come across in unilingual parts of the country.

Bernier’s reviews from tuned-out unilingual anglo voters are not good. He needs to get better. It’s just a matter of work. Dion never did the work, and it cost him badly when a key election interview went sideways.

It’s hard to know how this will play out. English Canadians loved Jean Chretien’s heavily accented English but could never figure out what Dion was trying to say.

Dion’s situation was aggravated by the fact that the central policy he tried to sell to Canadians — the Green Shift — was so difficult to explain.

I am sure the Liberals and NDP are ready to attack Bernier as a reckless loon who wants to privatize health care. If he doesn’t spell out his plans clearly enough to quiet those fears, his leadership will be a brief, spectacular failure. I am sure the Liberals and NDP are ready to attack Bernier as a reckless loon who wants to privatize health care. If he doesn’t spell out his plans clearly enough to quiet those fears, his leadership will be a brief, spectacular failure.

I think it was a great policy idea. Shifting taxation from income to carbon production is sensible, but it requires convincing skeptical voters that they can trust you to increase some taxes while decreasing others. Dion was effectively mocked and ridiculed by the Conservatives and he could never make the sale in his shaky English.

Bernier’s ideas may be similarly difficult to sell — because they are similarly radical.

Bernier wants to get rid of the supply management system that enriches dairy farmers and makes milk and cheese more expensive for poor people. That’s a good idea, but for some mysterious reason the dairy farmers disagree.

Those farmers, many of whom live in Conservative ridings, are sure to put pressure on their MPs, who will put pressure on Bernier. It will be an ongoing irritant for the new leader.

Bernier also wants to make radical changes to the equalization system, which is what allows poor provinces to run hospitals at the same level of quality as those in Ontario and Alberta.

I am sure the Liberals and NDP are ready to attack Bernier as a reckless loon who wants to privatize health care and won’t care if your mother can’t get the medical care she needs.

If he doesn’t spell out his plans clearly enough to quiet those fears, his leadership will be a brief, spectacular failure.

To mesh his policy ideas with the practical, political concerns of potential Conservative voters, he will need the help of his caucus, where he has little support.

I remember a Liberal MP telling me in 2006, with some intensity, that he wished grassroots Liberals would pay attention to the very clear messages about Dion that his caucus mates, who knew him well, were sending.

Conservative MPs who don’t believe Bernier will be an effective leader have been sending similar messages in this race, but — just as in 2006 — the grassroots members aren’t paying attention.

Only a handful of MPs support him. The only Quebecer in the bunch is Jacques Gourde, who is not known for his powers of persuasion.

Significantly, Gérard Deltell, the smart and statesmanlike former provincial politician who probably should have run and didn’t, is supporting O’Toole.

The Quebecers are uneasy about running under Bernier because his ideas — greater personal freedom through smaller government — are outside the mainstream in statist Quebec.

They are popular ideas in Alberta, and will lead to some good policy debates, but I am not convinced that they will find wide appeal in an election campaign.

What Bernier is selling is freedom. Canada is already one of the freest societies in the world. The people are not crying out for freedom. They want jobs and health care.

Squaring the proposals that won him the leadership with the proposals that might win an election will require quite a pivot, from ideology to practicality.

I will be pleasantly surprised if he manages it.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.