The CBO earlier this week estimated the draft Republican repeal bill would reduce federal Medicaid spending by $772 billion between 2017 and 2026. | Getty CBO: Medicaid spending falls 35 percent in 20 years under Senate health bill

The federal government would spend 35 percent less on Medicaid in two decades if the Senate Obamacare repeal bill becomes law, according to a CBO analysis requested by Democrats critical of the legislation.

The drop-off stems from stricter limits Republicans want to enact beginning in 2025 to control the entitlement's growth. Under the Senate bill, federal Medicaid outlays would be 26 percent less in 2026 compared to current law. The gap widens to 35 percent in 2036.


The CBO earlier this week estimated the draft Republican repeal bill would reduce federal Medicaid spending by $772 billion between 2017 and 2026. But some Senate Democrats asked for a separate analysis, contending the 10-year estimate doesn’t fully capture the effects of the legislation, because stricter spending limits would take effect toward the end of that window. The latest projection doesn't contain dollar figures for future cuts. The CBO hedged its estimates, saying there's considerable uncertainty predicting spending beyond the coming decade.

“This analysis makes clear that the massive cuts to Medicaid are only going to get worse,” Sen. Ron Wyden, ranking Democrat on the Finance Committee, said in a statement today. “These cuts will leave states with unfathomable choices like whether sick children get essential treatment or pregnant women get prenatal care or older Americans can receive adequate nursing home care."

The Senate bill would end open-ended Medicaid payments to states and put the program on a budget starting in 2020. Spending would grow in line with medical inflation for the first few years. But Senate Republicans want to further constrain spending growth starting in 2025, when payments would grow at a rate tied to regular inflation.

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The bill’s Medicaid provisions have been a major sticking point in Republican efforts to assemble 50 votes to advance the legislation. Moderates from Medicaid expansion states, including Rob Portman of Ohio, have opposed pegging overall Medicaid spending growth to regular inflation as the Senate bill includes. Conservatives say it’s necessary to put the program on a sustainable budget trajectory.