Wisconsin Court of Appeals Judge Lisa Neubauer

The AP's Scott Bauer has a good overview of an important but underappreciated election that's coming up on April 2: the open-seat battle for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. The race is officially nonpartisan but the battle lines are clear, with progressives supporting Lisa Neubauer, the chief judge of the state Court of Appeals, and conservatives backing Brian Hagedorn, a fellow appeals court judge who's recently come under fire for blog posts he once wrote saying that legalizing same-sex marriage would lead to legalizing bestiality.

The stakes are extremely high, and they go beyond just this one matchup. Neubauer and Hagedorn are vying to fill the seat left open by retiring Justice Shirley Abrahamson, a legendary liberal figure who became the first woman to sit on the court when she was named to the bench in 1976. If Neubauer can hold the seat, the court's ideological composition will remain unchanged, with four conservatives and three progressives.

That in turn would give progressives the chance to flip the court if they can unseat Justice Dan Kelly, an appointee of former Gov. Scott Walker, when he's up for his first election in 2020—a race that will take place at the same time as what's likely to be a highly competitive Democratic presidential primary. Wisconsin liberals are also feeling good about their prospects, both this year and next, after winning a Supreme Court seat from conservatives and defeating Walker last year, though of course, the political winds could always shift.

But if they remain favorable, a progressive-dominated state Supreme Court could change the trajectory of Badger State politics in some profound ways. In particular, with Republicans firmly in charge of the legislature but Democrat Tony Evers now holding the governorship, there's a good chance the court will be called on to adjudicate the next round of redistricting following the 2020 census. That could have the effect of undoing an extreme Republican gerrymander that saw the GOP retain a nearly two-thirds majority in the state Assembly, despite losing every statewide race in 2018.