The speaker’s fate has become a much-discussed topic as the fiscal cliff approaches. GOP unlikely to oust Boehner

It’s a truth that fire-breathing conservatives will have to handle: John Boehner isn’t going anywhere as speaker of the House.

Boehner’s grip on leadership is no doubt weaker after a faction of his caucus blocked his “Plan B” to avoid the fiscal cliff. But not to the point of peril, according to Republican lawmakers from across the spectrum and GOP aides involved in leadership machinations.


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When Boehner walks onto the House floor on Jan. 3, there’s an outside chance he‘ll see low double-digit defections — and those in and around his camp recognize it. The speaker’s fate has become a much-discussed topic as the fiscal cliff approaches and the Senate conducts last-minute talks this weekend — so far without a deal — to avoid across-the-board tax hikes.

But even staunch conservatives admit what’s become abundantly clear within the House Republican Conference.

“John Boehner is our speaker,” said Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah), who has one of the most conservative voting records in the House. “Harry Reid may not like it, but he is our guy.”

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Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who had a turbulent tenure atop the chamber, put it more bluntly: “I think somebody could run. They would get some votes. And they would lose.”

Can’t beat something with nothing

Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.)? House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.)? Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.)? Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.)? Please, House GOP insiders say.

Not only have none of them signaled they will challenge Boehner, they are actively supporting his reelection.

No other rank-and-file Republican has publicly challenged him either, at least not at this point. The main anti-Boehner grumbling is coming from conservative media outlets like Breitbart and Hot Air, and outside groups such as American Majority Action.

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In an interview with POLITICO, Gingrich — who speaks frequently with House Republicans and knows a few things about what it takes to topple a speaker — didn’t even let a reporter finish his question before he said, “The answer is no.” Boehner isn’t at all vulnerable, in the Georgia Republican’s view.

“No one in the current establishment would run on short notice in the middle of this,” he said. “Think about it. Legislative bodies are about mathematics: Cantor will stick with Boehner, McCarthy will stick with Boehner, Paul Ryan will stick with Boehner. … Cathy [McMorris Rodgers] got elected with Boehner’s help.

He went on, “[Rep.] Greg Walden is close to Boehner. Pete Sessions got appointed to Rules by Boehner. Anyone who could get a majority of the [GOP C]onference is for Boehner. I have some concerns about his strategy and doing better, but I think the fact is John is the speaker, he is going to be the speaker.”

Gingrich, who was forced to step down as speaker in 1998, insisted Boehner wouldn’t be weakened even if 10 Republicans voted against him. It would take 17 Republicans to vote against Boehner to block his reelection, but outright replacing him would require a critical mass of the Republican Conference.

“I think I lost eight,” Gingrich said of the vote for speaker at the start of the 105th Congress, although the actual number was nine. “When it’s over, you’re speaker.”

There are myriad other reasons why no one inside or outside of the current Republican hierarchy would want to be speaker.

Both Cantor and McCarthy benefit from not having to take full responsibility for the legislative brawls of the upcoming 113th Congress.

And Ryan, who is presumed to be eyeing a run for the White House in 2016, can hardly afford to have his brand tarnished by leading a gang of House Republicans with single-digit approval ratings.

Then there’s this problem: No one has said how they’d handle the brawls with President Barack Obama differently. Leading conservatives considered the most likely to vote against Boehner didn’t respond to requests for comment.

“There’s no ‘better plan’ to get the House GOP out of this mess, i.e., ‘If I were speaker, I would do ‘X’ as an alternative,’” explained one House Republican.

A GOP aide echoed that: “[N]o outsider, were there even a path for them — which there isn’t — has any interest in doing this dirty work. They don’t want to have to meet with the president, work with Harry Reid, or even Mitch McConnell. They want to stay pure, and the only way to do that is to shout from bleachers.”

In fact, in closed party meetings, most of the chatter is about how Boehner is sticking up for Republicans, even if they feel pressure from the outside to oppose him. While those displays aren’t always indicative of the real mood inside the GOP Conference — party leaders often push their allies to speak out during the meetings — it does show there is strong, vocal support for Boehner.

And to bolster his conservative bona fides, Boehner is tacking to the right. He has said he would only press for a fiscal cliff deal that has backing from a majority of Republicans. The speaker is taking a hard line on the debt ceiling. And when asked about gun-control legislation in the wake of the Newtown, Conn., massacre, Boehner committed to merely looking at Vice President Joe Biden’s suggestions but promised no House action.

Another sign that Boehner is probably safe: His staff is not engaged in any kind of aggressive whipping effort that would signal that he’s truly afraid of losing the speakership, according to more than a half dozen lawmakers and senior aides.

The reason is because no one is actively running against him.

On cliff deal, no prints

The painfully drawn-out fiscal cliff talks with Obama and rejection of Boehner’s Plan B million-dollar tax hike gives the speaker something he’s been long seeking in this debate: political cover.

There will be no Boehner Plan B or a Boehner-Obama compromise. The entire leadership is either leaping off the cliff, or joining together to pass a smaller bill to avoid tax increases for most Americans.

After Friday’s White House meeting, all eyes are on whether Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) can cut a deal, with Obama’s blessing.

Boehner’s could also be helped by his insistence that the Senate pass a bill first — something he told the president repeatedly in Friday’s session at the White House, sources said. A bill has to pass both chambers, and if the Senate goes first, Boehner can insist that the upper chamber is stifling the will of House Republicans.

The retribution factor

House Republicans have seen all too plainly that Boehner is not afraid of punishing lawmakers who cross him.

That would certainly apply to anyone who voted against him for speaker. Boehner controls committee assignments. He has heavy sway over the National Republican Congressional Committee, a key source of fundraising and campaign advice for rank-and-file members. During the summer of 2012, Boehner made more than 60 stops for House Republicans, raising millions of dollars for them and the party.

And he and fellow leaders decide which bills come to the floor.

A vote against the speaker is sure to earn permanent enemy status.

Still, Boehner’s critics can send a stern message to him without actually toppling the speaker.

After members assemble at the start of each Congress, each side nominates its own candidate for speaker. To win, a candidate must receive an absolute majority of members voting for a named candidate. On Jan. 3, that number will be 217. Thus, some conservatives could offer a protest vote against Boehner without electing Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) as speaker. Or they could vote for someone else, one of their colleagues, or vote “present” without defeating Boehner.

Gingrich said the most apt comparison to Boehner’s situation is when Rep. Mo Udall (D-Ariz.) ran from the left against John McCormack (D-Mass.) for speaker in 1969.

“The left was unhappy, they sent a signal,” the former speaker said. “And [McCormack] beat him handily.”