Steven Jackson Fantasy Forecast

There are many factors that contribute to a successful fantasy football team. These factors include good research, good drafting, luck, and consistency, to name a few. In order to have a consistent fantasy team, consistent players are needed, naturally. One of the most consistent players in the NFL, and in fantasy football, over the last several years is new Atlanta Falcons’ running back Steven Jackson, whose signing was one of the biggest storylines of the 2012 NFL off-season. Jackson was drafted with the 24th overall pick in the 2004 draft by the St. Louis Rams and his impact in the NFL and on fantasy football teams was immediately felt.

Productive Past

Steven Jackson Career Stats Season Team G Rush Yds Avg TD Rec Tgt Yds 2004 St. Louis 14 134 673 5 4 19 24 189 2005 St. Louis 15 254 1046 4.1 8 43 55 320 2006 St. Louis 16 346 1528 4.4 13 90 110 806 2007 St. Louis 12 237 1002 4.2 5 38 52 271 2008 St. Louis 12 253 1042 4.1 7 40 62 379 2009 St. Louis 15 324 1416 4.4 4 51 75 322 2010 St. Louis 16 330 1241 3.8 6 46 61 383 2011 St. Louis 15 260 1145 4.4 5 42 58 333 2012 St. Louis 16 257 1042 4.1 4 38 53 321 Career Totals 131 2395 10135 4.2 56 407 550 3324

Steven Jackson had a quiet rookie season while only starting in three games, but still managed 673 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Since then, he’s put together eight consecutive seasons of at least 1,000 rushing yards, four touchdowns and 38 receptions. Jackson has consistently produced while constantly battling injuries. He missed one game in 2005, four games in 2007, four games in 2008, one game in 2009 and one game in 2011. Steven Jackson’s injury history is the main reason why so many fantasy owners stay away from him on draft day, but why? He has proven he can still produce even when struggling with injuries. Over the course of the previously mentioned five seasons when Jackson missed playing time, he still averaged 1,130 rushing yards, 5.8 rushing touchdowns and 42.8 receptions. Who wouldn’t want that kind of production from a running back who even played in all 16 games? The Oregon State alum scored an average of 190.6 fantasy points over those five injury-marred seasons. That total would have made Jackson the 12th highest scoring running back last year.

Where Steven Jackson has really held value throughout his career is in PPR leagues. In fact, because of his pass-catching prowess, Jackson is sixth on the NFL single-season yards from scrimmage list. He totaled 2,334 yards in 2006 while scoring 16 total touchdowns and catching 90 balls. It was one of the best fantasy football performances of the decade. While Jackson indubitably won’t have another seasons like he did in 2006, we can take solace in his consistent production.

Jackson’s injury-plagued seasons have already been averaged, now it’s time to include his other seasons with them, to further prove just how consistent Jackson has been and attempt to omit the injury stigma. Over the last eight years Jackson has averaged 1,182.75 rushing yards, 6.5 rushing touchdowns, 48.5 receptions, 391.8 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. Those numbers equate to an annual average of 231 fantasy points. In other words, over the past eight years, he’s been the ninth best fantasy running back. That’s phenomenal, folks, especially considering he only played 16 games in three of those seasons.

Positive Future

While reflecting on Steven Jackson’s glorious past, we can look forward to his promising future with the Atlanta Falcons. Despite Jackson’s extremely successful career, he is getting older. He is also in his first season on a new team, albeit an overall better team, and will be sharing touches with fellow Oregon State alum Jacquizz Rodgers. Because of Rodgers, a gifted pass-catcher himself, Jackson’s receiving game will likely fade some, but that’s to be expected as his reception totals have decreased every season for the past four seasons (51-46-42-38). While Jackson’s value may be lesser in PPR leagues, he’s still a viable RB1 in both PPR and standard leagues. He’s barely getting the respect he deserves with his current ADP of 12 among running backs in both standard and PPR leagues.

With Jackson heading to Atlanta late in his career, it’s easy to compare him to a current free agent running back – Michael Turner. Turner signed with the Falcons as a 26 year old free agent in 2008 after four years of playing in LaDainian Tomlinson’s shadow in San Diego. It didn’t take long for Turner to resurrect his career as he led the NFL in carries in his first season with the Falcons while scoring 17 times on the ground. While these numbers shouldn’t be expected of Steven Jackson in his first year with the team, it should give owners some relief knowing that Jackson can still be an elite fantasy running back at age 30.

While Jackson’s production in the receiving game will likely decrease, he will still see most of the carries in Atlanta’s backfield, especially at the goal line. Jackson’s role and Turner’s role aren’t all that different. Turner didn’t catch a lot of balls during his tenure with the Falcons but scored at least 10 times on the ground in each of his five seasons with the team.

With Steven Jackson’s proven consistency, toughness, and the new elite offense he’s on, a late first round pick seems warranted for the veteran.

See where FantasyPros’ 2012 Most Accurate Expert Jody Smith has Jackson ranked.