This document assesses continued UK membership of the EU against the three existing alternative models:

membership of the European Economic Area ( EEA ), like Norway

), like Norway a negotiated bilateral agreement, such as that between the EU and Switzerland, Turkey or Canada

and Switzerland, Turkey or Canada World Trade Organisation ( WTO ) membership without any form of specific agreement with the EU , like Russia or Brazil

The Treasury’s analysis shows that the UK would be permanently poorer if it left the EU and adopted any of these models. Productivity and GDP per person would be lower in all these alternative scenarios, as the costs would substantially outweigh any potential benefit of leaving the EU . The analysis finds that the annual loss of GDP per household under the three alternatives after 15 years would be:

£2,600 in the case of EEA membership

membership £4,300 in the case of a negotiated bilateral agreement

£5,200 in the case of WTO membership