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The first study to quantify the benefits of a free trade deal with China suggests Canada could see its exports rise $7.7 billion over the next 15 years — growth of nearly 45 per cent over current levels.

The Canada-China Business Council/Canadian Council of Chief Executives survey, to be released later this week, explored whether a free trade deal with China makes sense. The model suggests the answer is a resounding yes, with up to 25,000 new jobs being created in sectors such as automotive, chemicals and seafood by 2030. The authors were at pains to point out these are very conservative estimates.

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The survey will provide impetus to the Liberal government’s enthusiasm for a trade deal with the Chinese.

Under the previous Conservative government, Stephen Harper said he wanted to see “clear benefit for both sides.”

The Tories were always wary of Chinese enthusiasm to secure access to Canadian resources. “We have a willing partner on the Chinese side, which is often an indicator of how much the other side will benefit,” said Adam Taylor, a trade consultant at Ensight and former communications director to Conservative trade minister Ed Fast. “The full benefit to Canada was not fully explored.”