The Trump Administration has been talking about its long-term goal being to force Iran oil exports to zero for months, and has faced resistance because of the impact it would have on the oil market, and by extension the global economy.



Reports indicate, however, that despite the panic and surge in oil prices it is certain to cause, the Trump Administration intends to announce on Monday that they will refuse all waiver renewals of Iran oil, meaning that as of May 2, all Iran oil exports will be sanctionable under US law.



The administration believes this will cripple Iran’s economy, and while it might, there are broader implications as well. Iran exports about a million barrels of oil a day, and there simply aren’t a million extra barrels of oil on the market to make up for that.



This means from the announcement through May 2, all those nations suddenly without waivers are going to be scrambling to scrape up the last little bit of supply they can get, at rising prices, while the Trump Administration tries to ignore the consequences.



How far this digs into exports of course remains to be seen. China has openly said before that they don’t intend to comply with US sanctions, and nations like India may decide they simply can’t afford to go along with US demands.





Author: Jason Ditz Jason Ditz is news editor of Antiwar.com. View all posts by Jason Ditz