President Donald Trump delivers remarks at the International Association of Chiefs of Police annual conference and expo in Chicago, October 28, 2019. Leah Millis | Reuters

Congressional Democrats' effort to impeach President Donald Trump is not impacting the stock market as the president claimed in a tweet, but it could if it begins to hurt his reelection chances, strategists say. Stocks would be even harder hit if either Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren or Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders were to take a serious lead in the Democratic field against a weakened Trump. Both are seen as having less market-friendly policies than former Vice President Joe Biden, who is now leading polls, or even Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana, now fourth behind Sanders and Warren.

On Thursday, the House of Representatives approved guidelines for the impeachment process. There was no Republican support for the bill, and it is widely believed that the House will ultimately vote to impeach Trump along party lines but the GOP-controlled Senate will not vote in favor of removing him from office. Just before the vote, Trump tweeted that the impeachment "hoax" was hurting the stock market and Democrats don't care. tweet Strategists say what is more important to the market is whether Trump is able to secure a trade deal with China that would stop any new tariffs from taking effect by the mid-December deadline. Stocks sold off Thursday on worries that a deal with China would be difficult to secure, despite the administration's reassurances and Trump's comments that he would be signing a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Bloomberg reported that Chinese officials have doubts they can reach a comprehensive trade deal even as they get closer to a phase one agreement. According to the report, Chinese officials have refused to move on the most difficult issues and are concerned they can't trust Trump. "If they in fact feel they can't trust him and that he's too impetuous to stick with the deal, that's a major roadblock," said Art Cashin, director floor operations at UBS. The question is whether Chinese officials would be even more wary of Trump if he were impeached. "I don't think [impeachment] will have any bearing on his negotiations with China. The only way markets will care is if it impacts the 2020 election," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. He added it would probably take until spring for the market to react to the election, following primaries that would clarify who the Democratic candidate would be. Dan Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas Research, said the impeachment should not interfere with a trade deal, and he expects to see a first phase deal by the end of the year. The volatile market reaction to the escalation of tariffs in August has helped push both sides to the table.