I have no idea.

Yes, we are just about three weeks into the 2014 NFL season, but it’s way to early to guess the NFL MVP — we don’t even know which teams are good and which ones aren’t. The Patriots almost lost to the Raiders yesterday. Aaron Rodgers only managed 162 passing yards against the Lions. The 49ers and the Saints are both 1-2.

Even a few games into the season, these MVP and Super Bowl predictions are a crap chute. Everyone seems to be jumping on the Cincinnati bandwagon (Exibit A, B, and C) — and I admit I also like what I’ve seen from them thus far — but don’t try pretend you expect it to stay that way throughout the season. It happens every year, the power rankings change every time a team loses a game its supposed to win, and suddenly they’re not the popular pick anymore. Teams get hot, players get injured, and maybe someone gets suspended — the team we are watching now are going to have a completely different identity by week 17. That’s the NFL, and the parity that comes with it.

All of this being said, for some reason I’m going to try to predict this year’s MVP based off what we’ve seen so far and what we should expect.

Andrew Luck – After an 0-2 start, Luck righted the ship with a near-perfect performance against the Jaguars on Sunday. I’ve been high on Luck since the season began, and his team’s poor start doesn’t phase me. He is asked to do more than almost any other quarterback in the league — his 126 pass attempts are the most in the NFL. His efficiency stats are nice too, as he’s completed 68.3% of his passes and only has 3 interceptions while racking up 9 touchdowns. It’s not only how impressive his numbers are, its how he’s performing like he is while he doesn’t have the passing options that other quarterbacks like Peyton Manning or Matt Ryan have. Luck will be a strong MVP candidate if he keeps playing at around this level while carrying his Colts to the top of the AFC South.

Phillip Rivers – Rivers is leading the MVP race at this point in the season, and for good reason. His numbers are very impressive: 6 touchdowns to 1 interception with a completion percentage above 68%. That isn’t what’s so impressive though — his first 3 games were against very strong defenses: Seattle, Arizona, and Buffalo. In a year where it looks like Peyton Manning has lost some zip, the time could be ripe for Rivers to flourish in his second year under Head Coach Mike McCoy and lead the Chargers back to the playoffs. The running back situation in San Diego throws a wrench into things, but that might just mean Rivers will throw more often — and that isn’t necessarily a bad thing, considering the weapons he has at his disposal).

Peyton Manning – He’s the greatest regular season quarterback of all time, and he’s on pace to have a hell of a year again. He is 38 years old and doesn’t throw quite as hard as he used to, but his brain is fine (kept safe by that monstrous helmet) and that has always been his greatest weapon. Manning looks to have developed some chemistry with Denver’s newest wideout, Emmanuel Sanders. He is also more comfortable with Julius Thomas than he’s ever been, which is saying something because Thomas got a lot of looks last year.

Marshawn Lynch – Seattle has evolved offensively since last year. Russell Wilson has another year under his belt, and a healthy Percy Harvin really opens things up for Pete Carroll’s offense. If you haven’t been watching, one of the favorite plays is sending Harvin in motion, which makes the defense have to defend a few things: a Percy Harvin end-around, a Russell Wilson keeper, a pass (potentially to Harvin on a quick out), or a run with Marshawn Lynch. Lynch was one of the premier running backs in 2013, but there will be less pressure on him this time around. He will not be asked to carry the ball 301 times again this year, but he will get more quality touches — ones where the defense can’t key in on Lynch and Lynch alone. He’ll still get the ball a good amount though, and especially near the end zone like we saw against the Broncos this Sunday.

Russell Wilson – The Wilson narrrative since he has come into the league has been something like this: he’s a game manager for a team with a spectacular defense, who is capable of making a few big plays a game, yet he isn’t the reason behind Seattle’s success. I really disagree with this. Yes, he does have the luxury of playing on a team that has the LOB, but in close, grind it out games, Wilson has proven time and time again that he has the grit and the composure needed to get the win. Here’s something for ya: Wilson is 7-0 against Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers. Given, he isn’t lining up against those guys and covering their recievers or anything, but he has always risen to the challenge. I have no problem in saying that I’m rooting for Wilson to take over the NFL, because he’s been running things for the past couple years.