Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Even as it's struggled over recent seasons, Michigan has retained the upper hand in the series with Northwestern, winning nine of the last 10 meetings straight up. But the Wildcats have been grabbing the cash, going 5-2 against the spread over the last seven meetings.

In an interesting game in the Big Ten, Michigan and Northwestern hook up for Homecoming at the Big House Saturday afternoon.

Point spread: The Wolverines opened as 10-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.3-16.6 Wolverines

Why the Northwestern Wildcats can cover the spread

Northwestern is 5-0 this season, 4-1 ATS, after blanking Minnesota last week 27-0, easily covering as a four-point home favorite. The Wildcats led 10-0 at the half and 20-0 after three quarters, then put the cherry on top with a fumble return for a score early in the fourth. On the day Northwestern outrushed the Gophers 184-74 and won time of possession by a 34-26 margin, and those are usually good ways to cover spreads in college football.

The Wildcats opened this season with an upset of Stanford, and in their only road game so far, won at Duke. So they already own two victories over quality foes.

After losing three close contests to Michigan the last three seasons, Northwestern is probably itching for a shot at revenge.

Why the Michigan Wolverines can cover the spread

The Maize and Blue are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS through their first five games under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, including a 28-0 blanking of Maryland last week. The Wolverines only led 6-0 at the half but pulled away from there, eventually outgaining the Terrapins 378-105, racking up 198 yards on the ground and holding the ball for over 34 minutes. And as mentioned above those are excellent prerequisites for covering spreads, which Michigan did as a two-touchdown road favorite.

So since that season-opening loss at Utah, which doesn't look too bad right now considering what the Utes have done, the Wolverines have allowed just 14 points over their last four games, pitching back-to-back shutouts.

Michigan seems to have the voodoo on the Wildcats; three seasons ago the Wolverines connected on a late Hail Mary and kicked a field goal to force overtime, where they won 38-31; two seasons ago they kicked a field goal at the buzzer to again force overtime, where they won 27-19; and last season they stopped a Northwestern two-point conversion with three seconds left to preserve a 10-9 victory. And things like that play on teams' minds.

Smart pick

The last three meetings in this series have been very close, and there's little reason to believe Saturday's game won't play out along similar lines. The smart money in this spot resides with the underdog Wildcats.

Betting trends

Michigan is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games against Northwestern.

Northwestern is 7-2 SU and ATS in its last nine games.

The total has gone under in Michigan's last six games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.