In a bit of a surprise, the San Diego Padres recalled 21-year-old Josh Naylor to the big league squad on Thursday. On his own merits, he deserved the bump. He was hitting .299/.378/.538 with 10 home runs and matching walk and strikeout rates of 11.5 percent. What type of impact will he make?

The Rankings

Naylor didn’t crack either of our Top 100 lists, instead coming in at #193 of our Top 300 Fantasy list and #14 in our Padres Top 30.

The Tools

Defense (40 field/50 arm): The big knock on Naylor has always been his ability to field. He’s a subpar defender and is limited by his 5-foot-10, 250-pound frame, especially in the outfield where even left field can be too much. He’s got plenty of experience at first base but he’s played exclusively in the outfield in 2019. This is a situation where the Padres hope the DH makes his way to the NL because it’s where Naylor will fit in. For now, he’s a liability and prone to late game replacements.

Hit (50 present/60 future): Why does a team sit through the pain of Naylor in left field? Because he’s wielding a really potent bat. He’s changed his stance in the last year, opting for a high hand pre-pitch placement as opposed to one at the letters. When he had the previous load, I noticed a hitch that threw off his timing and created an inefficient path to the ball. He has a knack for getting the barrel on the ball with a line drive swing and overall with a minimal leg kick it’s a pretty toned down package. His plate discipline has slowly crept up as the years have passed and he’s now an asset in the category. I still think a future 60 hit tool is a slightly bullish, but I’m deferring to Lance’s Top 30 grade here.

Power (50 game/70 raw): The biggest variable in Naylor becoming either a 15 home run bat or a 30 home run bat is his ability to tap into his big raw power into games. In the past his game swing has lacked the loft you’d like to see for someone who puts on big displays in batting practice. I’ve noticed he has a tendency to chase the high pitch and while he makes contact, he keeps it in the park and into the gaps. I want to be encouraged by his .239 ISO (about 80 points higher than any other season), but you already know the applicable Triple-A caveats. That said, someone with his hit tool and dormant power could be the person to benefit most from the current environment. Worth noting is that this year PetCo Park is third worst in home run factor for LHB according to Baseball Prospectus.

Speed (30 present/20 future): Naylor will never give you double-digit steals in the bigs, but he’ll chip in a couple every year. I look forward to the gifs of him sliding into second.

Prediction: In the immediate future, I’m keeping my expectations in check. The Padres are headed to Toronto where Naylor will experience a cool moment, debuting in his home country. He should DH for all the games. Once the team returns to the NL, however, his playing time is murkier. Hunter Renfroe is 6-for-36 with a .167 OBP in the last two weeks, so there is a path to playing time in left field. I’m just not confident to predict a consistent 20 at-bats each week for Naylor. Be wary of the potential for a demotion after the AL series. In the long term, the hope is Naylor settles into a DH role soon and gets a chance to grow into his power where he can develop into a middle-of-the-order force.