Poll Lookahead: Who's No. 3? Ohio State or Baylor?

Paul Myerberg | USA TODAY Sports

Two weeks ago, heading into Week 9, there were 10 undefeated teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision. There are now six undefeated teams, four on the automatic-qualifying level. The herd has been thinned.

Oregon was the latest team to fall by the wayside, leaving two teams with a distinct case for a No. 1 spot in this week's USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll: Alabama and Florida State. Alabama's impressive 38-17 win against LSU – when combined with Oregon's loss – should lead to no changes at the top, however.

Florida State has been impressive, to the point where the Seminoles should receive substantially more first-place votes than at any point this season. But the Crimson Tide's victory will keep Nick Saban's team at No. 1 in the new poll, set to be released midday Sunday.

Ohio State and Baylor should follow, though Stanford has staked claim to a spot in the top five after its noteworthy win against the Ducks. Stanford will be the top-ranked team with one loss, perhaps followed by Oregon – though Clemson, Missouri and Auburn should also stand inside the top 10.

The battle for No. 3 comes down to the Buckeyes and Bears, and whether voters believe Baylor's 41-12 win against Oklahoma justifies leapfrogging ahead of OSU. Inhabiting the No. 3 spot would put one of the two in the driver's seat, in a sense: While still one full step behind Alabama and FSU, the third-ranked team would move into the hypothetical championship game matchup should either frontrunner lose a game before the postseason.

This week's poll might be defined more by the number of changes after two weeks of relative constancy throughout the top 25. At least two teams will drop out in Notre Dame and Texas Tech, and it's possible that Arizona State falls from No. 24 after struggling to put away Utah.

At least two teams will move into the poll. One could be Minnesota, which moved to 8-2 after its fourth Big Ten win in a row – the program's first such streak since 1973. Another could be Texas, which might move back into a national ranking after an overtime win at West Virginia pushed the Longhorns to 6-0 in Big 12 play. There's also Duke, which rode three non-offensive touchdowns to a win against North Carolina State.

Certain teams have quietly made a case for the top 15. Oklahoma State has reinvented itself as a run-first offense, with some fits and starts, and sits at 8-1 heading into the home stretch. Texas A&M and South Carolina sit with two losses, each with defining games to come: A&M has LSU and Missouri, and the Gamecocks still have rival Clemson to end the regular season.

Among two-loss teams, Wisconsin's home victory against Brigham Young should give the Badgers a boost. UW's two losses have come to Ohio State and Arizona State, the latter under questionable circumstances. Unless Nebraska earns a ranking after beating Michigan, the Big Ten will remain with only three ranked teams: OSU, Wisconsin and Michigan State.

Teams moving up in the poll:

1. Texas. While a BCS berth comes down to how UT fares against Baylor and Oklahoma State, the Longhorns have earned consideration for the top 25 by playing unblemished football in league play.

2. Ball State. It's hard to see Ball State crack the top 25 now, but keep an eye on the Cardinals against Northern Illinois.

3. USC. Remember when the Trojans were thrown aside? Now 7-3, USC is going to be a presence in the Rose Bowl hunt.

Teams moving down in the poll:

1. Houston. The Cougars had a shot at Central Florida but couldn't convert late, knocking Houston down to 7-2. But the two losses have come by a combined six points.

2. LSU. Now 7-3, the Tigers will be sixth-best team in the SEC, per the Coaches Poll – behind Alabama, Missouri, Auburn, Texas A&M and South Carolina.

3. Brigham Young. Opportunities stand ahead – a game against Notre Dame, for instance – but BYU really could have used a win Saturday at Wisconsin.

Paul Myerberg, a national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports, is on Twitter @PaulMyerberg.