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Arizona Senate (upper chamber): 17 Republicans, 13 Democrats House (lower chamber): 35 Republicans, 25 Democrats Number of seats to flip the Senate: 3 Number of seats to flip the House: 6 Why It’s In Play With the exception of 2001–2002, when the two parties had equal numbers in the State Senate, Republicans have controlled both chambers of the Arizona legislature since 1993 (and the House since 1966!). But the demographics of the state (an estimated 22 percent of eligible voters in 2016 were Latinos) are feeding what most observers perceive as a Democratic trend. The GOP margin in the presidential race shrank from 10 percent in 2012 to 3.5 percent in 2016. According to Gallup/SurveyMonkey data, the president’s net approval rating in Arizona as of August was minus-11, not good but a bit better than his national standing. Why It Matters This is a state where Republicans hold a “trifecta” that Democrats would love to break. Normally a fast-growing state like Arizona would be prime redistricting country as well, though the role of an independent redistricting commission reduces the significance of partisan control significantly. To Swing the Senate The Republican margin in the Arizona Senate is 17–13 after the GOP lost one net seat in 2016. That means a shift of three seats would give Democrats control (a two-seat shift might mean a degree of power for Democrats, since Arizona has no lieutenant governor to break ties). Only one Republican state senator is from a district carried by Hillary Clinton. To Swing the House Arizona has a system where 30 districts elect one senator and two representatives. Democrats would need to gain six seats (out of 60) in the House to win control, after picking up one net seat in 2016. They may be aided by term limits, which will hit five GOP incumbents and three Democrats this year. Three of the Republican incumbents running for reelection are in districts carried by Hillary Clinton.

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Colorado Senate (upper chamber): 18 Republicans, 16 Democrats, 1 Independent Number of seats to flip the Senate: 2 Why It’s In Play Colorado state senators have four-year terms, with roughly half (17 of 35 in 2018) up for reelection every two years. Republicans held onto a one-seat margin in 2016, despite Hillary Clinton’s five-point win in the presidential contest (the third consecutive Democratic presidential victory in this battleground state). That makes the Colorado Senate a prime target for Democrats in 2018. According to Morning Consult data, the president’s net approval rating in Colorado as of August was minus-16 percent. His loss of 18 net points since the 2016 presidential election is well beyond the national average. Why It Matters Democrats have a solid majority in the Colorado House, and if they can hold onto the governorship, a State Senate swing would give them a trifecta. The state does, however, have a bipartisan commission in charge of redistricting, so the results of the race will influence but not control redistricting efforts. Colorado is very likely to pick up a U.S. House seat in the next reapportionment. To Swing the Senate Democrats need to win just one seat to take the Senate. Two incumbent Republicans up next year are in districts carried by Clinton; no Senate Democrats running in 2018 are in districts carried by Trump. Four Democrats and three Republicans are term-limited.

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Connecticut Senate (upper chamber): 18 Republicans, 18 Democrats House (lower chamber): 71 Republicans, 80 Democrats Number of seats to flip the Senate: 1 Number of seats to flip the House: 4 Why It’s In Play Of the six states where Democrats have state government “trifectas” coming out of the 2016 elections, Connecticut’s is by far the most vulnerable. Republicans achieved a 18–18 tie in the State Senate in 2016 (Democrats retained control due to the tie-breaking vote of Lieutenant Governor Nancy Wyman), and picked up eight House seats to pull within seven of the Democrats in that 151-seat chamber. Why It Matters This is a solid presidential “blue state” where controversial Democratic fiscal policies have created a market for a Republican limited-government, anti-tax message. Two-term governor Dannel Malloy, who as of January was the most unpopular Democratic governor (with a 23–68 job approval/disapproval ratio according to Morning Consult, approaching Chris Christie levels). In October, Connecticut ended a 123-day deadlock over the state budget, which damaged the state’s credit rating and exacerbated partisan tensions. Malloy’s announcement in April that he would not run for a third term has changed the dynamics of the 2018 election in Connecticut, but the field to succeed him is still fluid and could include Malloy’s 2010–2014 running mate Lieutenant Governor Nancy Wyman. To Swing the Senate Two Senate special elections in 2017 did not change the chamber’s partisan composition. With all 36 seats up in 2018, either party can win control with net gains. If the Senate remains tied, the party that wins the gubernatorial contest will again control the chamber. To Swing the House Three House special elections in 2017 and one in 2018 did not change the chamber’s partisan composition. In 2016, 28 of the 151 districts were won by less than 10 percent (16 by Democrats, 12 by Republicans). Most of these districts will be 2018 targets. Perhaps because of the salience of state issues, there was a lot of ticket-splitting in Connecticut in 2016, most of it benefiting Republicans, who won nine Senate districts and 33 House districts won by Hillary Clinton (House Democrats won seven districts carried by Trump). To hold their majority, Democrats will likely need an anti-Trump wave to overcome the anti-Democratic trend in state-level voting in Connecticut. According to Morning Consult data, the president’s net approval rating in Connecticut as of August was minus-18, which is down 23 points from Inauguration Day. In late February, a special election flipped House District 120 (which Clinton had carried by a slim margin) from red to blue, slightly widening the Democrats' majority.

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Florida Senate (upper chamber): 23 Republicans, 15 Democrats Number of seats to flip the Senate: 5 Why It’s In Play In 2016, a court-ordered redistricting forced all 40 Florida senators to face voters. In 2018, only half the chamber — currently controlled by the GOP by a 23–15 margin — is up for reelection. That creates an opportunity for Democrats, since Republicans are having to defend 15 of the 20 seats at riskArtiles's seat has been filled, but two seats are vacant. Two seats are vacant: Democrat Jeff Clemens resigned following his admission of an affair with a lobbyist, and Republican Jack Latvala resigned after allegations of corruption and sexual harassment.

Why It Matters With Governor Rick Scott (and his vast personal fortune) term-limited in 2018 (though he may run for the U.S. Senate), Democrats are hoping to break a GOP trifecta in the state that with a brief exception (when Charlie Crist decided to abandon his party after losing a Senate primary) has been in place since 1999. If Democrats succeed, it will prevent a third consecutive Republican-controlled redistricting of the state’s growing congressional delegation (and the state legislature as well). The courts have, however, limited gerrymandering in a series of decisions based on a 2010 ballot initiative that established “fair” principles for redistricting, and the U.S. Supreme Court is considering curbs as well. Breaking Republican control of state government could have profound implications for the state’s future on a wide range of issues, most notably health care and gun laws; Florida Republicans have repeatedly rejected efforts to take advantage of the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion option, and after the Parkland shooting have advocated arming teachers in the classroom. To Swing the Senate Four GOP senators up in 2018 represent districts carried by Hillary Clinton, while none of the Democrats are in Trump-carried districts. Democrats expect to make gains in the Florida House next year as well, but the GOP margin (76–41) is too large to make it a legitimate target. But so far Florida is not experiencing any large backlash against the presidency of Donald Trump. According to Morning Consult data, Trump’s net approval rating in Florida as of February had slipped from 22 percent to 2 percent..

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Iowa House (lower chamber): 59 Republicans, 41 Democrats Number of seats to flip the House: 10 Why It’s In Play Iowa saw one of the most remarkable partisan swings in the country in 2016, moving from a six-point Democratic presidential win in 2012 to a nine-point GOP win four years later. But Republicans only increased their majority in the State House (which they’ve held since 2011) by two seats. Now a big midterm swing in the opposite direction could make the chamber vulnerable to Democrats, though it would take a pickup of ten seats. The big question is whether the GOP surge in 2016 represented an ephemeral or a long-term trend. According to Morning Consult data, Trump’s net approval rating in the state as of February was minus-4, which is slightly better than the president’s popularity nationally but a sizable deterioration since the presidential election. Why It Matters Iowa has an independent redistricting commission whose recommendations the legislature can overturn, but probably won’t unless one party has a trifecta. So it’s important for Democrats to break up the current trifecta, with 2018 offering perhaps the best single opportunity. Only half the State Senate is up next year. To Swing the House Ten House Democrats are in districts carried by Trump. Their prospects for midterm survival brightened when Democrat Phil Miller won by ten points in an August special election for a vacant seat in a district that Trump carried by 21 points. Four House Republicans are in districts carried by Hillary Clinton. In January, a special election in District 6 (an extremely Republican district, one that Trump carried by 30 points) went to the Republican, a former Chuck Grassley aide named Jacob Bossman, who took 55 percent of the vote.

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Maine Senate (upper chamber): 18 Republicans, 17 Democrats House (lower chamber): 70 Republicans, 74 Democrats, 8 Independents Number of seats to flip the Senate: 1 Number of seats to flip the House: 3 Why It’s In Play The Maine state legislative elections in 2018 could be barnburners. Given close Democratic control of the House and close Republican control of the Senate, state legislative races are being targeted by both parties. Maine Democrats could benefit from a double “out-party” factor, with voters unhappy with both the president and Governor Paul LePage voting against the party of incumbency in Washington and in Augusta. According to Morning Consult data, the president’s net approval rating in Maine as of August was minus-5 percent, down 13 points since his election. Why It Matters Maine was an unlikely presidential battleground in 2016. Barack Obama’s 15-point margin in 2012 dwindled to under 3 percent for Hillary Clinton, and Donald Trump picked up an electoral vote by carrying the second congressional district (Maine, along with Nebraska, awards electoral votes to CD winners). The results continued a Republican surge in the state that led in 2014 to the surprise reelection of controversial conservative governor Paul LePage (who is term-limited in 2018). To Swing the Senate Republicans lost two net State Senate seats in 2016, but still had a 18–17 margin. Republicans won in five districts carried by Clinton, and Democrats won in four districts carried by Trump; Maine is one of the hardier redoubts of split-ticket voting. The state’s two-term limits on senators will hit disproportionately in 2018, with seven Republicans and just one Democrat being termed out. To Swing the House Aside from a two-year gap after the 2010 GOP landslide, Democrats have controlled the Maine House since 1975, but have a bare majority (with some independent support) now, after losing a couple of seats in 2016. Eighteen House Democrats represent seats carried by Trump in 2016, while only eight Republicans are in districts carried by Clinton; that’s an important potential avenue to a GOP takeover. As with the Senate, however, term limits disproportionately affect House Republicans, with 14 being termed out in 2018, compared to just 7 Democrats.

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Michigan Senate (upper chamber): 27 Republicans, 11 Democrats House (lower chamber): 63 Republicans, 45 Democrats Number of seats to flip the Senate: 9 Number of seats to flip the House: 9 Why It’s In Play The main reason for Democratic optimism about the Michigan Senate is term limits: No fewer than 19 of the 27 GOP members of the chamber are being forced out of the legislature in 2018 (seven of the eleven Democrats face the same fate). Term limits will affect the Michigan House races, but not as disproportionately as with the Senate: 13 Democrats and 11 Republicans are being forced to the sidelines. Like Maine, Michigan is another state where a double “out-party” factor could help Democrats. Term-limited GOP governor Rick Snyder is very unpopular; as of February, his approval/disapproval ratio was a dreadful 37/47. The president’s net approval rating in Michigan, as of February, was minus-10 percent, according to Morning Consult data. That’s about what you would expect from the average national swing against Trump since last year. Why It Matters Before 2016 Michigan’s reputation was as a basically Democratic state where Republicans had lucked into a state-level trifecta that they reinforced aggressively via the redistricting process. But then Donald Trump carried the state by an eyelash in 2016, and Democratic hopes of retaking the legislature fell a few notches. To Swing the Senate Republicans have held the Michigan Senate (which holds elections for four-year terms during midterm elections) continuously since 1983. The total vote for Senate contests in 2014 was nearly even, yet because of redistricting the GOP holds a 27–11 supermajority in the chamber. Even with the gerrymandering advantage, four Senate Republicans are in districts carried by Clinton, while none of the Democrats are defending districts carried by Trump. To Swing the House Republicans have a slightly less overwhelming but still impressive 63–47 advantage in the Michigan House. The power of gerrymandering is again apparent in this chamber: Democrats probably won the total State House vote in 2016. For 2018, a lot depends on what happens in the thirteen House districts carried by Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016, seven won by Democrats in 2016 and six won by Republicans.

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Minnesota House (lower chamber): 77 Republicans, 57 Democrats Number of seats to flip the House: 11 Why It’s In Play Minnesota’s another traditionally Democratic Midwestern state where Republicans have been regularly making gains. While Democrats have won the presidential vote in Minnesota in every election since Richard Nixon’s 49-state blowout in 1972, the Democratic margin (1.5 percent) in 2016 was the lowest since 1984. Why It Matters The Minnesota Senate has no elections in 2018; its four-year terms expire in 2020. Republicans flipped the Senate in 2016, which puts them within striking distance of a trifecta if they can win the governorship next year. This is a state where the legislature can conduct redistricting without significant limitations, though during the last round, a deadlock between the GOP legislature and a Democratic governor led to judicially drawn maps. To Swing the House The GOP won control of the State House in 2014, and picked up three additional seats in 2016, leaving them with a 77–57 margin. Democrats would now need to flip ten seats to regain control of the chamber in 2018. Twelve Minnesota House Republicans represent districts carried by Hillary Clinton while seven Democrats represent districts carried by Donald Trump (six of these are districts Obama won in 2012). A general anti–White House wave could help Democrats take advantage of these dynamics. That looks entirely possible. According to Morning Consult data, as of February the president’s net approval rating in Minnesota as of August was minus-12.

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New Hampshire Senate (upper chamber): 14 Republicans, 10 Democrats House (lower chamber): 218 Republicans, 175 Democrats, 3 Independents Number of seats to flip the Senate: 3 Number of seats to flip the House: 22 Why It’s In Play This small state has perpetually competitive legislative races, and large partisan swings are not unusual. The huge size of the New Hampshire House (400 members) often gives its election results outsize significance, since it can greatly influence “total state legislative seats” won or lost nationally in any election cycle. According to Gallup/SurveyMonkey data, the president’s net approval rating in New Hampshire in August was minus-16, the same as his national rating. Why It Matters The election of governor Chris Sununu in 2016 made New Hampshire a GOP “trifecta” state, so disrupting that trifecta would be significant. The Granite State’s U.S. House delegation has only two members, but since both districts are usually competitive, the ability to draw lines in 2022 is valuable. To Swing the Senate A swing of three seats in the 24-member New Hampshire Senate (controlled by the GOP since 2010) would give Democrats control. Neither party made gains in the 2016 election, apart from one vacant spot that went Republican; Democrats did hold a vacant seat in a July 2017 special election by a comfortable margin. To Swing the House In 2016, Democrats made modest gains in the New Hampshire House (controlled by Republicans since 2014), even though Donald Trump had a significantly higher share of the two-party vote than did Mitt Romney four years earlier. Party switches and vacancies have eroded the GOP margin of control significantly; at present, a swing of 21 seats would award the giant chamber to Democrats. That figure was 22 until February 26, when a special election flipped the Belknap 3 district to the Democrats.

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New Mexico House (lower chamber): 32 Republicans, 38 Democrats Number of seats to flip the House: 4 Why It’s In Play New Mexico’s lower chamber is a natural target for Republicans in 2018: They just lost it two years ago, and could regain control with a net gain of just four seats out of 70 at stake. (Members of the New Mexico Senate are not up for reelection in 2018; Democrats control that chamber by a 26–16 margin.) One important thing to note about New Mexico’s demographics is that, as of 2014, the huge Hispanic population — 48 percent of the state — is mostly (83 percent) U.S.-born, not recent immigrants. Most are descendants of Spanish colonists who were in New Mexico long before it became a U.S. state — or before the United States existed. So they are less concerned about immigration policy, and more likely to vote Republican, than Hispanic communities in most parts of the country. But according to Morning Consult data, the president's net approval rating in New Mexico as of February was minus 13 percent, a 30-point drop from his net approval of 17 for the inauguration. Why It Matters Democrats will be aiming at a New Mexico trifecta if they can elect a successor to term-limited GOP governor Susana Martinez. The incumbent’s popularity has been eroding steadily this year. The latest approval/disapproval ratings data from Morning Consult show Martinez way underwater at 33/57. A long-running state budget crisis and a sluggish petroleum-dependent economy are big and continuing issues. To Swing the House From one perspective, Republicans are more exposed than Democrats going into 2018: nine GOP House members are in districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, while only two Democrats are in districts carried by Donald Trump. But the strong performance of former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson on the Libertarian ticket complicates such comparisons. Four House Democrats won in seats where Clinton won a plurality, but trailed the combined Trump-Johnson vote. Overall Clinton won 48 percent, Trump 40 percent, and Johnson 9 percent.

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New York Senate (upper chamber): 31 Republicans, 21 Democrats, 9 Independents Number of seats to flip the Senate: 10 Why It’s In Play Democrats face one of their most frustrating challenges in New York, a heavily Democratic state in presidential and other statewide elections (Hillary Clinton won there by a 59–37 margin in 2016, down from Obama’s 63–36 win in 2012) where nonetheless Republicans have steadily maintained control of the legislature’s upper chamber with help from a dissident group of Democrats. Why It Matters Given that New York is a big state that will probably lose another congressional seat after the 2020 census, a Democratic trifecta there would be valuable (Democrats control the State Assembly by more than a two-to-one margin, and Democrat are likely to occupy the governor’s mansion for a long time; George Pataki is the only Republican to have won a New York gubernatorial election in 40 years). To Swing the Senate It's complicated. Democrats have a one-seat (32–31) majority, but one Democrat caucuses formally with the GOP, and eight others, known as the Independent Democratic Caucus, support Republican control of the chamber. In addition to that, two Democratic districts in the Bronx and Westchester are vacant, giving Republicans a 31-30 numerical majority until the special election to fill the seats on April 24.



Hillary Clinton won all eight of the IDC districts by double-digit margins in 2016. Thanks to this unique and odd situation, Democratic prospects for control of the New York Senate depend on a big 2018 partisan swing, a collective shift by the IDC, or successful primary challenges. The primary route failed conspicuously in 2014, and IDC members (and allegedly, Democratic governor Andrew Cuomo) seem comfortable with the status quo. A big anti-Trump wave in 2018 could theoretically give Democrats enough Senate seats to overturn the GOP/IDC coalition, or at least put pressure on the IDC to come around, but as noted above, IDC members are all from districts Trump didn’t carry to begin with. According to Morning Consult data, the president’s net approval rating in his home state as of August was a dismal minus-22, a 30-point negative swing since the inauguration.

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