Parker said he believes voter familiarity was more of a factor in Williams’ loss than gender. It was the first time that Williams had run for a statewide office and it was the third time that Gianforte had run.

The postelection poll also found that 43 percent of voters believed Gianforte’s 2017 assault of journalist Ben Jacobs, a reporter for The Guardian newspaper, mattered a great deal or a good amount in their House vote. Unsurprisingly, those who viewed it as such overwhelmingly voted for Kathleen Williams: 95 percent saying it mattered a great deal voted for Williams versus only 7 percent of those saying it mattered not at all. Conversely, 90 percent indicating it mattered not at all voted for Congressman Gianforte.

The postelection poll was the second conducted in 2018 by MSU and MTN. The MSU-MTN poll quite accurately predicted the final vote in the House and Senate races. The pre-election poll predicted that Tester would win re-election by 3 points, and he won by 4. The same pre-election poll also predicted that Gianforte would win by 7.5 points and he won by 5 points. Parker said because the pre-election poll surveyed Montana voters who were registered by Aug. 14, the large number of voters registering after that date were not included in the postelection sample. This means younger voters in the survey’s sample are not likely representative of those who cast ballots overwhelmingly for Tester and Williams, particularly in Gallatin and Missoula counties.