Ryan Moore said before Saturday’s Kentucky Derby that there were “a couple of what could be exceptional horses in there‚“ and in the case of Justify at least, he was right on the money.

As for Moore’s mount Mendelssohn, who knows? The racing surface here was fast on Saturday morning, just as it was in Dubai in late March when he set himself up for the Run For The Roses. After record rainfall both for a Kentucky Derby day and for 5 May in Louisville, it was slop, and a slow start and early bump ensured that his race was over almost as soon as it had begun.

Mike Smith, on the other hand, had already done the difficult part by getting Justify out of stall seven quickly and into a prime position just off the pace. It is the place to be in those conditions. Kickback is one thing when a horse is trying to make ground, but great dollops of gloop quite another. “I kept a leg on each side and my mind out of the way,” as Smith put it, and the rest were already running for second place.

The pace was fierce, but Justify showed no sign of tiring in the stretch having taken it up with on the way out of the back. That is a promising sign in the likely event that he goes to New York for the Belmont on 9 June with a chance to become the second Triple Crown winner from Bob Baffert’s stable in the space of four seasons.

Justify reigns in the rain at Kentucky Derby as Mendelssohn flounders Read more

Coral offer 3-1 about Justify adding the Preakness and Belmont to his re~cord over the next five weeks, which might appear a stingy price at first sight. Yet he will be odds-on to beat what is likely to be a small field at Pimlico on Saturday week, and shorter still three weeks later, thanks in part to the mechanics of PMU betting.

My view would be that Justify should probably be a bigger price for the Belmont than the Preakness if he gets there, as he will be stepping up to a mile-and-a-half, and probably up against fresher horses that have missed one of the previous legs of the Triple Crown. He will also be making his sixth start since January having not raced as a juvenile, which could take its toll.

That said, 1-2 for the Preakness and evens for the Belmont is 2-1 for the double, and Coral’s price suddenly looks more appealing.

Like Saxon Warrior, Saturday’s Guineas winner, Justify is one of the most credible Triple Crown candidates for a long time. We may be on the brink of an enthralling and historic summer on the Flat.