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Looking inside the latest EKOS poll for iPolitics, the regional and sub-regional numbers explain why no majority is in view for any of the three major parties.

Nationally, the NDP have consolidated their lead at 32.6 per cent, up nearly two points from two weeks ago, with the Conservatives at 29.4 per cent (up two points), and the Liberals trailing at 24 per cent (down nearly two points).

Those are not good numbers for the Liberals, and when they look at the regional breakouts, they should very concerned about Quebec. EKOS has the NDP leading there at 37 per cent, with the Bloc Québécois at 23 per cent, the Liberals at 19 per cent and the Conservatives at 15 per cent.e

Drilling down by sub-region and language, the Liberals are nowhere outside the Montreal region, and run far behind both the NDP and Bloc among francophone voters.

For example, in the Outaouais-Laurentians-Lanaudiere region, the NDP dominate at 50 per cent, with the Bloc at 23 per cent and the Liberals at 18 per cent, and the Conservatives out of the game at only 5 per cent.

As badly as the Conservatives are doing province-wide, their numbers are quite efficient in Quebec City, where they poll at 38 per cent, with the NDP at 25 per cent and the Bloc at 23 per cent, while the Liberals are at only 8 per cent.

Trudeau isn’t the only leader struggling in the EKOS poll. The Conservatives have been below their notional “floor” figure of 30 per cent for weeks, and are the second choice of only 5 per cent of voters. Trudeau isn’t the only leader struggling in the EKOS poll. The Conservatives have been below their notional “floor” figure of 30 per cent for weeks, and are the second choice of only 5 per cent of voters.

Among francophones, the NDP lead at 36 per cent, with the Bloc at 25 per cent, while the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 16 per cent. Among anglophones and allophones, the Liberals lead at 43 per cent, while the NDP are at 41 per cent, and the Conservatives at 16 per cent. (Because the non-francophone sample consists of only 66 respondents, there’s a 12 point margin of error, as compared to only 4 per cent among 528 francophone respondents).

This is the party of Wilfrid Laurier, Louis St.-Laurent, Pierre Trudeau and Jean Chrétien. From one generation to the next, they have run as favourite sons, with Quebec and Ontario as the Liberal power base. Justin Trudeau is another favourite son, but he is out of favour with francophones. This is a big problem for the Liberals. And even among non-francophones, the NDP is competitive with the Liberals on the West Island of Montreal.

In battleground Ontario, the Conservatives lead at 33 per cent, with the Liberals at 29 per cent and the NDP at 27 per cent.

Again, looking at the sub-regional breakouts, the Liberals lead in downtown Toronto, the western 905 suburbs, and the Hamilton-Niagara region. But that’s it. The Conservatives lead in Ottawa, eastern Ontario, eastern 905, and the “shadow” of the Greater Toronto Area. The NDP lead in northern Ontario, and are surprisingly competitive with the Liberals in Toronto.

The whole election could well be decided in the GTA. In the new House, there will be 29 seats from suburban 905, and 25 from downtown 416. On a stand-alone basis, with 54 seats, the GTA would be the third largest province in the country after Ontario and Quebec.

Trudeau isn’t the only leader struggling in the EKOS poll. The Conservatives have been below their notional “floor” figure of 30 per cent for weeks, and are the second choice of only 5 per cent of voters.

Anecdotally, a lot of Progressive Conservatives and Red Tories are turned off by Harper and Conservative wedge politics—such as the crackdown on crime when the crime rate is declining, and the privacy invasions of the security bill, C-51. Red Tories have also been embarrassed by the government picking fights with the Supreme Court. There is this thing called the separation of powers between the legislative and judicial branches, and Red Tories have tended to embrace it.

Peter MacKay, co-founder with Harper of the united Conservative Party, had compelling family and career reasons for leaving politics. But he may also have tired of carrying Harper’s water on a right-wing justice agenda.

Statistically, EKOS President Frank Graves says the dissatisfaction of PC voters is measurable among undecided voters.

“The incidence of undecided is substantially higher among Conservative voters,” Graves says. “Roughly 20 per cent of Conservative voters in 2011 are undecided, twice as many as among NDP and Liberal voters from that election.”

Graves adds that there could be “a lot of torment among Conservative voters who don’t want to go anywhere else, but are not very happy with Harper.”

And the campaign brain trust around Harper is not exactly known for reaching out to party activists. Why would party headquarters want to make enemies of the entire Crosbie clan in Newfoundland and Labrador? This is a bit like taking on the Kennedys in Massachusetts.

And over what? Ches Crosbie put on a Harper wig and did an impersonation of the prime minister at a lawyers’ charity event. This is what lawyers do for fun. But Crosbie has been disqualified from running for the Conservatives in Avalon. He probably wouldn’t have won anyway, as the Conservatives are set to go zero for seven seats on the Rock. Having incurred the scornful wrath of John and Jane Crosbie, legendary figures in Newfoundland, the Conservatives can likely forget about raising money there.

At the other end of the country, Lynne Yelich, minister of state for consular affairs, a sitting cabinet minister, and five-term MP, lost the Conservative nomination in her riding when its boundaries were re-defined from rural Saskatchewan to urban Saskatoon. She lost to a local sportscaster named Kevin Waugh, who is apparently much better known in the city than she is. And clearly, better organized. But one needs to ask why wasn’t Yelich protected by the party?

Admittedly, these are two seemingly disconnected and strange events, except for the fact they both tie back to Conservative Party HQ. These are indeed strange times and strained times in Harper’s inner circle.

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L. Ian MacDonald is editor of Policy, the bi-monthly magazine of Canadian politics and public policy. He is the author of five books. He served as chief speechwriter to Prime Minister Brian Mulroney from 1985-88, and later as head of the public affairs division of the Canadian Embassy in Washington from 1992-94. The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.