Florida Gov. Rick Scott and his allies have already spent at least $12 million on television ads this spring. | Getty Scott surges past Nelson with older Florida voters

Gov. Rick Scott is virtually tied with Sen. Bill Nelson among Florida voters, but the Republican is dominating the Democrat by 9 points among those nearing or at retirement age — a group that casts the majority of Florida’s votes.

The results, drawn from a forthcoming POLITICO/AARP poll delving into the policy views of Florida voters aged 50 and older, exposes a political divide that bodes relatively well for Republicans when compared to some nationwide polling that shows a more-favorable environment for Democrats.


Overall, voters in the nation’s largest swing state are almost evenly split when it comes to opinions of President Trump’s job performance, with 48 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving. But Trump’s job approval rises to 52 percent and his disapproval falls to 44 percent among voters older than 50 — a crucial demographic in the retiree-heavy state because they have historically cast about two-thirds of all the ballots in midterm elections.

Similarly, Scott leads Nelson overall by 40 percent to 39 percent, but Scott’s support grows to 44 percent while Nelson’s shrinks to 35 percent with those 50 and older. Florida’s Senate race is shaping up to be the most expensive in the nation and could be the most expensive in Senate history, with some estimating it could hit the $200 million mark.

“Midterm voters are much longer in the tooth than in presidential elections. Will this be the case in 2018? Yes,” said Daniel A. Smith, a University of Florida political science professor who studies voting patterns.

With the recent emphasis on registering and turning out younger voters in the wake of the Parkland massacre, many expect the overall share of the vote of those 50 and older won’t be as high as in 2014, when they accounted for 43 percent of the Florida voter rolls but cast 67 percent of the ballots. Smith, though, has been skeptical of the idea of a major wave of young voters.

“Although the share of younger voters this November will likely be higher than past midterms,” he said, “what’s more important than turnout will be vote choice.”

While Scott is marginally ahead of Nelson overall and more comfortably ahead with older voters in the poll, the survey suggests the three-term senator has some staying power because Scott and his allies have already spent at least $12 million on television ads this spring – some of them trashing Nelson – while Nelson has only recently had $2.2 million in air cover from Senate Majority PAC. A super PAC supporting Scott announced Monday that it’s spending an additional $3.5 million on a new ad campaign.

The poll, conducted by Morning Consult, indicates Democrats have a slight advantage on the generic ballot among all voters. Overall, Florida voters by 40-38 percent favor a generic Democrat for Congress or for governor. But those 50 or older want a generic Republican by 42-35 percent for governor and 41-36 percent for Congress.

The POLITICO/AARP poll surveyed 1,199 Florida voters on May 29-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. For the voters 50 and older, the poll surveyed 676 Florida voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

