Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton may want to steal each other’s supposed base of voters: the Democrats who found their candidate hard to love and the Republicans staring in disbelief that their party has elected a former reality TV star described as a racist by the 2012 nominee. But do either of them have a chance?

Trump has repeatedly expressed his belief that he can scramble the electoral map, winning so-called “Reagan Democrats” and a mix of white, working-class people and defectors from the camp of Bernie Sanders supporters, many of whom are against free trade deals and a “rigged” system. With these people, he argues, even staunchly liberal states like New York could be in play.

Trump and Clinton on quest to woo Sanders fans and uneasy Republicans Read more

Clinton has meanwhile made cautious overtures to those same blue-collar voters and, especially, the working-class and suburban women won by Mitt Romney in 2012. Romney has emerged as one of the few Republicans to unequivocally reject Trump, and Clinton has turned toward others in his “Never Trump” coalition.

Polls show that neither candidate will have an easy time of it. Clinton would be the most disliked major party candidate in 40 years, were it not for Trump, who is the most disliked candidate in modern history. A new poll by Gallup, based on interviews with 11,600 Americans in May, shows which groups are beyond the candidate’s grasp and which might be most open to courtship.

Despite his many boasts, including “the Hispanics love me,” and “Look at my African American,” Trump has little love from non-white Americans. Only 11% of African Americans polled had a favorable view of Trump, compared with 69% who saw Clinton favorably. Fourteen percent of Hispanics saw Trump favorably, compared with 58% who were inclined to like Clinton. Similarly, LGBT people, unmarried women and Muslim, Jewish and Asian Americans preferred Clinton to Trump by margins of more than 25 points.

Trump’s most favorable numbers do not amount to half of Clinton’s, though there are hints that his base – white voters – is larger than previously thought. Clinton is disliked by 25% of white men, according to the poll, while 49% of the white men surveyed had a positive view of Trump. White people without a college education, Mormons, and men over 50 similarly preferred Trump. Few others said they would take the businessman over the former secretary of state.

Where Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton stand on 2016's key issues Read more

White women, senior citizens and unmarried and young men – the latter a sizable portion of Sanders’ coalition – will probably be the most contested demographics. According to the poll, all groups are within two points difference between the candidates. Trump’s road to victory lies with white voters: he could very feasibly defeat Clinton, but he would probably need to expand the Republican share of white voters by enough to overwhelm minority votes.

At the moment, he is running on par with Romney’s 17-point margin with white voters during his race against Barack Obama. It was not enough for Romney; Trump would need more, and though he succeeds with white voters without a college degree, he is doing worse than his predecessor among those with a diploma.

Sanders voters remain something of an unknown quantity. In a new Guardian/SurveyUSA poll, 13% of his supporters said they would stay at home without his name on the ballot, while 41% said they would vote for Clinton and 7% for Trump. Those numbers could easily shift should Sanders concede and begin campaigning for Clinton.

Demographics are not destiny, but alongside a popular president and steady economy, they add to the deck of cards stacked against Trump.