VANCOUVER, Wash. -- The doors to the Costco store on Northeast 84th Avenue have been open for less than an hour and cars are pouring into the parking lot like tailgaters at a Ducks game .

Shoppers Meghan Jolma and Sarah Hall walk toward the cavernous warehouse talking about the Washington ballot initiative that would privatize liquor sales.

"I know we'll get better deals if this passes," says Hall, a substitute teacher, recalling how her family in California always stocked up on its holiday booze and other beverages at Costco.

"It's like anything with Costco," adds Jolma, who owns an electrical contracting business with her husband. "It's cheaper and bigger and more economical."

They are exactly the kind of shoppers -- and voters -- that Costco is salivating over.

The retail giant has poured a record-breaking $22 million into

, which would end the state liquor monopoly and rewrite the rules of the alcoholic beverage industry in Washington.

Joe Gilliam, the Oregon-based president of the Northwest Grocery Association, represents Costco in this fight on the Nov. 8 ballot.

If Costco can win in Washington, he says, "I think there will be an initiative in Oregon" to attack its liquor monopoly.

Independent pollster Stuart Elway released a new survey this week showing support for I-1183 has climbed to 53 percent while opposition is stalled at 38 percent.

Costco's expensive attempt to muscle more deeply into the liquor business has prompted opposition from deep-pocketed opponents. The Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America, a Washington, D.C.-based trade group that represents distributors, has put up almost all of the nearly $12 million raised by opponents.

Distributors worry the Washington initiative could set off a nationwide drive to up-end the basic rules of selling alcohol, which have been largely the same since Prohibition ended in the 1930s. States typically require that alcohol be sold through a three-tier system of manufacturers, distributors and retailers. Under 1183, retailers could cut deals directly with manufacturers of liquor and wine, cutting out distributors.

Battling ads

But it's not arcane business details dominating the campaign. Instead, both sides have flooded the airwaves, with the pro-1183 ads promising more liquor tax revenue for cash-strapped public services and opponents predicting more drunken driving and other alcohol-related problems.

Those arguments echo through the Costco parking lot.

For every Washingtonian hoping to score the liquor deals they see in other states, someone else is worried about allowing retailers with at least 10,000 square feet of space to sell liquor. The change could increase the number of liquor outlets from the 328 owned or licensed by the state to well over 1,000.

Phil Perrault, a case manager at a Vancouver homeless shelter, says he sees enough problems with alcohol abuse now. "I'm from California, where it's everywhere," he says as he loads big jars of peanut butter and several loaves of bread into his car. "I kind of like how it is here."

Alex Fryer, a spokesman for the opposition campaign, says the measure would allow retailers to "flood a community with cheap liquor brought in huge volumes, so there's a lot of public-health concerns with that."

But others say Washington's restrictive liquor laws don't have much impact.

"I don't think it matters," said Cindi Hogan, a Vancouver retiree. "People are going to get a hold of it anyway."

Supporters note that Washington and Oregon, have higher rates of drunken-driving fatalities than California. Surveys also show a slightly higher percentage of Washington and Oregon teens report drinking in the last month.

Both sides agree liquor would be easier to buy if shoppers could pick up a bottle while they're buying groceries at their neighborhood supermarket. What's less clear is the impact on price.

Though many Costco shoppers rhapsodize about the great bargains they've found in states such as California, where Costco sells its own brand of vodka in half-gallon containers, they won't necessarily see the same prices here if 1183 passes.

That's because the ballot measure would set a tax level that would produce more revenue. State officials estimate that when retail markups are added in, the price of liquor could be higher.



Impact on prices

But both sides agree that Costco and other retailers could drive the price down on selected items. As a result, some smaller distillers and winemakers worry that they'll get bumped from the shelves as big retailers move to cut deals with large manufacturers.

"We'd never have a chance" under this system, said Ron Dodge, president of Hood River Distillers, which imports and produces several different brands but is a small player in the overall liquor industry. His company, based in Hood River, has contributed $100,000 to the opposition campaign.

Steve Pharo, executive director of the Oregon Liquor Control Commission, said he doesn't know whether Costco or other big retailers will mount a similar campaign in Oregon. But he noted that his agency has been moving to deal with some of the convenience issues raised by consumers.

The agency has been experimenting with the "store within a store" concept of putting liquor stores inside supermarkets and will consider a rule in December that would allow more of them.

Still, Pharo said, "we will never engage in trying to entice people through the door" to buy liquor.

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