Obama’s big county blowouts

Courtesy of Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball

Here’s a stat that provides a measure of how thoroughly the GOP presidential ticket got thrashed in the “urban areas” Paul Ryan referred to: Mitt Romney lost 44 of the nation’s top 50 most populous counties on Election Day, a significant fall off from George W. Bush’s 2000 performance in those places.

According to an analysis by Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball website, Bush won 16 big counties in his first bid, compared to just 6 for Romney. The majority of those counties weren’t close in 2012 — President Barack Obama won more than 55 percent of the vote in 34 of them.

Many of the top 50 counties include big cities and have majority minority populations, so the results sketch out the full contours of the GOP’s weakness in urban America and among minority voters.

The Crystal Ball research suggests the problem is getting worse in many places, not better. Consider Los Angeles County, the nation’s single largest county. In 1988, Michael Dukakis won 52-47 there. By 2000, the margin was 64-32 for Al Gore. This year, Obama won 69-29.

Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County is a similar story: 59-40 Dukakis in 1988, 63-33 Gore in 2000 and 69-30 Obama in 2012.

Even the big counties that once favored the GOP are drifting out of the party’s orbit as they diversify.

In 1988, Charlotte’s Mecklenburg County gave George H.W. Bush 59 percent of the vote. By 2000, the GOP advantage in North Carolina’s most populous county was down to 51-48. This year, Barack Obama won 61-38.

Then there’s Orange County, Calif. — the onetime conservative stronghold that Ronald Reagan called the place “where good Republicans go to die.”

GOP presidential performance there declined from 68 percent in 1988 to 53 percent in 2012. The good news for Republicans? That 53 percent represents an uptick from John McCain’s 50 percent in 2008.