We'll start off with some bad news about the Chargers: they've dropped an average of exactly 3 spots this week in the subjective rankings. Now the good news: the Chargers actually rose in the objective rankings this week. Seriously though, the Chargers rose in all but 1 of the objective rankings this week. That's some good news, right?

There's not much optimism to go around for the Chargers this season it seems. Nearly everyone is predicting a blood-bath in Denver on Sunday, and I can't say I blame them. The Chargers have the uncanny inability to finish games this year. It happened in New Orleans, it happened against Denver, and it happened again this week in Tampa Bay. Good teams finish games, and the Chargers just aren't playing like a good team; and the rankings reflect it.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking NFC North 10.2500 NFC South 14.1184 NFC West 14.4474 AFC North 15.8947 NFC East 17.9474 AFC South 18.1447 AFC East 19.6711 AFC West 21.5263

The NFC's complete dominance over the AFC only lasted one week. With the AFC North gaining this week, and the NFC East losing, the NFC has slipped slightly.

Stock Rising

Team Week 10 Average Week 11 Average Difference NO 20.386 15.881 4.505 CIN 22.744 18.330 4.414 TEN 28.074 24.165 3.909 BAL 10.483 7.494 2.989 DEN 7.091 5.028 2.063

Knock off the one remaining undefeated team and you'll be rewarded handsomely in the rankings. Dominate the Giants, you'll be rewarded as well.

Stock Falling

Team Week 10 Average Week 11 Average Difference MIA 14.568 19.869 -5.301 NYG 7.023 10.972 -3.949 NYJ 21.852 25.534 -3.682 PHI 21.847 24.540 -2.693 CAR 20.716 23.403 -2.687

Suffer a horrible loss at the hands of a bottom-third team? That's a paddlin'.

Subjective Average

Subjective Texans 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 1.273 Falcons 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2.091 -1.091 Bears 3 4 3 7 4 6 6 3 3 3 3 4.091 -1.091 49ers 4 8 4 3 5 4 3 5 8 4 4 4.727 -0.909 Packers 6 6 5 4 3 5 4 4 7 5 6 5.000 0.273 Broncos 7 2 8 5 6 8 5 8 6 8 5 6.182 2.000 Ravens 5 7 7 8 8 3 7 7 5 6 7 6.364 2.727 Patriots 8 9 6 9 7 7 8 6 9 7 8 7.636 -0.454 Steelers 9 5 9 6 9 9 9 9 4 10 9 8.000 0.636 Giants 10 14 12 11 10 11 10 11 11 9 10 10.818 -4.272 Seahawks 12 11 11 10 12 12 11 10 13 11 11 11.273 0.363 Colts 11 12 10 12 11 10 12 12 10 13 12 11.364 0.545 Buccaneers 13 10 13 13 13 14 15 14 14 14 13 13.273 1.363 Vikings 14 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 15 12 15 14.000 1.364 Saints 16 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 12 16 14 14.636 4.637 Cowboys 15 16 16 17 16 21 14 15 18 15 16 16.273 2.273 Bengals 19 17 18 16 19 16 17 19 22 17 17 17.909 3.455 Lions 17 18 20 19 17 17 19 17 17 18 18 17.909 -3.454 Dolphins 18 19 17 23 18 22 18 18 21 19 20 19.364 -4.728 Chargers 20 28 19 18 21 19 20 20 16 22 19 20.182 -3.000 Cardinals 22 21 23 22 23 23 22 21 23 20 21 21.909 -1.091 Rams 23 24 21 21 20 18 24 22 26 23 25 22.455 2.000 Redskins 21 20 26 27 25 24 21 24 20 21 22 22.818 -0.636 Eagles 24 22 22 25 24 27 23 23 19 25 24 23.455 -2.637 Titans 25 25 24 20 22 20 25 26 24 24 23 23.455 4.818 Bills 27 23 28 24 26 26 27 27 25 26 27 26.000 1.636 Jets 26 27 27 29 27 28 26 25 27 27 26 26.818 -2.363 Panthers 29 30 25 28 30 25 29 29 29 28 28 28.182 -2.000 Raiders 28 29 29 26 29 29 28 28 28 29 30 28.455 -1.455 Browns 30 26 30 30 28 30 30 30 30 30 29 29.364 -0.182 Chiefs 32 32 31 31 31 32 32 32 31 31 31 31.455 0.545 Jaguars 31 31 32 32 32 31 31 31 32 32 32 31.546 -0.546

Observations:

The Falcons lost their first game! Naturally that means they're no longer the top team. The Texans are the unanimous heir to the Falcons throne atop the subjective rankings.

Last week, Brian Billick (Fox) had the Chargers ranked 26th; I scratched my head at that ranking. This week he has them 28th. Now I'm audibly proclaiming, "REALLY!?" I guess at least this week he has the Chargers above the Raiders.

That means in Billick's eyes, 3 of the 5 worst teams in the NFL come out of the AFC West.

Oh look! The Chiefs finally get a lead in a game and they're no longer the worst team in the NFL!

The top 10 teams are an even 5-5 split between AFC and NFC.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective Texans 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 -0.617 Falcons 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0.288 0.288 Chiefs 32 32 31 31 31 32 32 32 31 31 31 0.498 0.498 Jaguars 31 31 32 32 32 31 31 31 32 32 32 0.498 0.498 Seahawks 12 11 11 10 12 12 11 10 13 11 11 0.862 0.219 Colts 11 12 10 12 11 10 12 12 10 13 12 0.979 -0.017 Raiders 28 29 29 26 29 29 28 28 28 29 30 0.988 -0.057 Cardinals 22 21 23 22 23 23 22 21 23 20 21 0.996 -0.196 Lions 17 18 20 19 17 17 19 17 17 18 18 0.996 -0.729 Jets 26 27 27 29 27 28 26 25 27 27 26 1.029 -0.530 Vikings 14 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 15 12 15 1.045 -0.875 Patriots 8 9 6 9 7 7 8 6 9 7 8 1.068 0.039 Packers 6 6 5 4 3 5 4 4 7 5 6 1.128 0.378 Buccaneers 13 10 13 13 13 14 15 14 14 14 13 1.213 -0.453 Browns 30 26 30 30 28 30 30 30 30 30 29 1.226 -0.523 Giants 10 14 12 11 10 11 10 11 11 9 10 1.266 -0.039 Saints 16 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 12 16 14 1.298 -1.041 Bills 27 23 28 24 26 26 27 27 25 26 27 1.414 0.264 Ravens 5 7 7 8 8 3 7 7 5 6 7 1.432 0.268 Bears 3 4 3 7 4 6 6 3 3 3 3 1.443 1.017 Panthers 29 30 25 28 30 25 29 29 29 28 28 1.641 -0.305 49ers 4 8 4 3 5 4 3 5 8 4 4 1.656 0.940 Bengals 19 17 18 16 19 16 17 19 22 17 17 1.676 -0.096 Broncos 7 2 8 5 6 8 5 8 6 8 5 1.800 1.084 Cowboys 15 16 16 17 16 21 14 15 18 15 16 1.814 -0.334 Dolphins 18 19 17 23 18 22 18 18 21 19 20 1.823 -0.234 Steelers 9 5 9 6 9 9 9 9 4 10 9 1.907 0.296 Titans 25 25 24 20 22 20 25 26 24 24 23 1.924 0.110 Eagles 24 22 22 25 24 27 23 23 19 25 24 1.971 0.171 Rams 23 24 21 21 20 18 24 22 26 23 25 2.231 -0.305 Redskins 21 20 26 27 25 24 21 24 20 21 22 2.367 0.200 Chargers 20 28 19 18 21 19 20 20 16 22 19 2.886 -0.154

Observations:

Texans a unanimous choice for number 1.

Falcons would have been unanimous if it weren't for Brian Billick picking the Broncos at #2 instead. I'm sensing a trend here ...

Chargers are the most inconsistent team in the NFL. But that's pretty much thanks to Billick. Take out his ranking, and the Chargers' Standard Deviation drops to 1.647; in line with the Panthers and 49ers.

Overall though, rankings are becoming rather consistent overall.

Objective Average

Objective Texans 7 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 2.125 0.875 Broncos 1 1 3 2 8 11 3 2 3.875 2.125 Bears 4 8 2 3 7 3 2 6 4.375 -0.125 49ers 6 3 8 5 1 4 5 3 4.375 -1.875 Packers 5 6 4 6 2 8 6 4 5.125 0.500 Patriots 2 15 5 4 6 2 4 11 6.125 0.000 Falcons 12 7 7 7 4 7 8 5 7.125 -1.625 Seahawks 3 4 9 8 10 13 7 7 7.625 1.000 Ravens 8 17 6 10 5 5 10 8 8.625 3.250 Giants 9 9 15 9 16 10 9 12 11.125 -3.625 Buccaneers 13 13 13 11 13 6 11 10 11.250 0.875 Steelers 11 16 10 13 11 9 14 9 11.625 -0.625 Cowboys 10 10 16 12 12 16 12 14 12.750 0.625 Lions 14 11 18 17 18 12 15 20 15.625 -0.500 Vikings 15 22 14 14 15 15 13 19 15.875 2.125 Saints 17 24 12 15 26 14 16 13 17.125 4.375 Panthers 19 5 22 20 21 20 18 24 18.625 -3.375 Bengals 16 14 20 21 19 23 22 15 18.750 5.375 Rams 18 12 19 16 24 27 19 22 19.625 2.000 Redskins 20 18 26 19 25 18 17 18 20.125 0.000 Dolphins 21 19 21 23 17 17 24 21 20.375 -5.875 Chargers 23 21 27 18 27 19 20 17 21.500 1.625 Colts 27 27 11 24 9 25 25 25 21.625 1.375 Cardinals 24 28 25 22 23 22 21 16 22.625 -1.750 Jets 25 23 23 25 20 28 23 27 24.250 -5.000 Titans 29 30 17 27 14 24 29 29 24.875 3.000 Eagles 26 20 30 29 29 21 27 23 25.625 -2.750 Bills 22 29 24 26 22 32 28 28 26.375 0.625 Browns 28 26 28 28 30 26 26 26 27.250 -0.125 Raiders 30 25 29 30 28 30 30 30 29.000 -2.125 Jaguars 32 32 31 32 31 29 31 31 31.125 -0.750 Chiefs 31 31 32 31 32 31 32 32 31.500 0.375

Observations:

See? I wasn't lying, the Chargers rose in the objective rankings. It just means they did something right this week ... just not enough.

For weeks now, the Texans have been atop the Objective rankings. Glad to see the Subjective rankers finally got the memo once the Falcons lost. I've harped on it before, you just can't go by raw record. It's always said each year that Team A is better than their record indicates, why is the inverse less common?

Wow, the Broncos aren't far behind either. 4 of the 8 objective sites rank the Broncos 2nd or 1st. *gulp*

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective Chiefs 31 31 32 31 32 31 32 32 0.500 0.169 Jaguars 32 32 31 32 31 29 31 31 0.927 0.231 Browns 28 26 28 28 30 26 26 26 1.392 -0.696 Raiders 30 25 29 30 28 30 30 30 1.658 -0.814 Packers 5 6 4 6 2 8 6 4 1.691 -0.651 Texans 7 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 1.965 -0.214 49ers 6 3 8 5 1 4 5 3 1.996 0.673 Bears 4 8 2 3 7 3 2 6 2.176 -1.206 Falcons 12 7 7 7 4 7 8 5 2.204 0.025 Cowboys 10 10 16 12 12 16 12 14 2.222 -2.019 Buccaneers 13 13 13 11 13 6 11 10 2.278 -0.979 Steelers 11 16 10 13 11 9 14 9 2.342 0.610 Jets 25 23 23 25 20 28 23 27 2.385 -0.249 Dolphins 21 19 21 23 17 17 24 21 2.395 -0.521 Giants 9 9 15 9 16 10 9 12 2.713 1.847 Vikings 15 22 14 14 15 15 13 19 2.848 0.064 Lions 14 11 18 17 18 12 15 20 2.955 -0.666 Seahawks 3 4 9 8 10 13 7 7 2.997 0.307 Bengals 16 14 20 21 19 23 22 15 3.152 0.533 Redskins 20 18 26 19 25 18 17 18 3.219 -0.114 Cardinals 24 28 25 22 23 22 21 16 3.238 0.098 Bills 22 29 24 26 22 32 28 28 3.314 -0.958 Broncos 1 1 3 2 8 11 3 2 3.407 0.128 Eagles 26 20 30 29 29 21 27 23 3.603 0.052 Chargers 23 21 27 18 27 19 20 17 3.606 0.506 Ravens 8 17 6 10 5 5 10 8 3.672 -1.109 Patriots 2 15 5 4 6 2 4 11 4.285 0.664 Rams 18 12 19 16 24 27 19 22 4.386 0.714 Saints 17 24 12 15 26 14 16 13 4.807 0.391 Panthers 19 5 22 20 21 20 18 24 5.430 0.882 Titans 29 30 17 27 14 24 29 29 5.732 1.361 Colts 27 27 11 24 9 25 25 25 6.800 0.377

Observations:

Amusing that the 4 most consistently-ranked teams are at the bottom of the rankings, and all 4 are AFC teams.

Some of the objective rankings can be a bit quicker to react to a team's recent successes, as evidenced by the Colts and Titans rankings.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Texans 1.000 2.125 1.563 1.073 Bears 4.091 4.375 4.233 -0.608 49ers 4.727 4.375 4.551 -1.392 Falcons 2.091 7.125 4.608 -1.358 Broncos 6.182 3.875 5.028 2.063 Packers 5.000 5.125 5.063 0.386 Patriots 7.636 6.125 6.881 -0.228 Ravens 6.364 8.625 7.494 2.989 Seahawks 11.273 7.625 9.449 0.682 Steelers 8.000 11.625 9.813 0.005 Giants 10.818 11.125 10.972 -3.949 Buccaneers 13.273 11.250 12.261 1.120 Cowboys 16.273 12.750 14.511 1.449 Vikings 14.000 15.875 14.938 1.744 Saints 14.636 17.125 15.881 4.505 Colts 11.364 21.625 16.494 0.961 Lions 17.909 15.625 16.767 -1.977 Bengals 17.909 18.750 18.330 4.414 Dolphins 19.364 20.375 19.869 -5.301 Chargers 20.182 21.500 20.841 -0.688 Rams 22.455 19.625 21.040 2.000 Redskins 22.818 20.125 21.472 -0.319 Cardinals 21.909 22.625 22.267 -1.420 Panthers 28.182 18.625 23.403 -2.687 Titans 23.455 24.875 24.165 3.909 Eagles 23.455 25.625 24.540 -2.693 Jets 26.818 24.250 25.534 -3.682 Bills 26.000 26.375 26.188 1.130 Browns 29.364 27.250 28.307 -0.154 Raiders 28.455 29.000 28.727 -1.789 Jaguars 31.546 31.125 31.335 -0.647 Chiefs 31.455 31.500 31.477 0.461

Observations:

Texans are on top, by a lot.

Broncos drop a bit, but are still top 5 and rose over 2 spots this week.

Clusters of teams are a bit less defined this week. Kind of a smooth gradient throughout the rankings.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Chiefs 31.455 31.500 0.499 0.276 Jaguars 31.546 31.125 0.741 0.194 Raiders 28.455 29.000 1.340 -0.451 Texans 1.000 2.125 1.391 -0.142 Packers 5.000 5.125 1.395 -0.237 Browns 29.364 27.250 1.666 -0.487 Bears 4.091 4.375 1.794 -0.509 49ers 4.727 4.375 1.816 0.609 Buccaneers 13.273 11.250 2.008 -0.751 Giants 10.818 11.125 2.012 0.778 Dolphins 19.364 20.375 2.142 -0.314 Jets 26.818 24.250 2.148 -1.158 Vikings 14.000 15.875 2.214 -0.449 Cardinals 21.909 22.625 2.261 0.030 Lions 17.909 15.625 2.350 -0.361 Bills 26.000 26.375 2.412 -0.512 Bengals 17.909 18.750 2.446 -0.116 Cowboys 16.273 12.750 2.647 -1.447 Seahawks 11.273 7.625 2.731 0.387 Steelers 8.000 11.625 2.760 0.728 Broncos 6.182 3.875 2.839 0.393 Ravens 6.364 8.625 2.848 -0.659 Falcons 2.091 7.125 2.876 0.242 Eagles 23.455 25.625 2.977 0.111 Patriots 7.636 6.125 2.991 0.460 Redskins 22.818 20.125 3.062 0.159 Chargers 20.182 21.500 3.274 -0.969 Saints 14.636 17.125 3.495 -0.053 Rams 22.455 19.625 3.596 0.227 Titans 23.455 24.875 4.058 0.897 Panthers 28.182 18.625 6.020 -0.307 Colts 11.364 21.625 6.759 -0.164

Observations:

Chiefs, Jaguars, Raiders and Browns: consistently terrible.

Texans, Packers, Bears and 49ers: consistently good.

It's never fun to lose, but at least the Chargers lost to a team that has turned into a consensus top-12 team. Right, guys?

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj Colts 11.364 21.625 10.261 -0.830 Falcons 2.091 7.125 5.034 0.534 Steelers 8.000 11.625 3.625 1.261 Saints 14.636 17.125 2.489 0.262 Ravens 6.364 8.625 2.261 -0.523 Eagles 23.455 25.625 2.171 0.114 Vikings 14.000 15.875 1.875 -0.761 Titans 23.455 24.875 1.421 1.819 Chargers 20.182 21.500 1.318 -4.625 Texans 1.000 2.125 1.125 0.398 Dolphins 19.364 20.375 1.011 1.147 Bengals 17.909 18.750 0.841 -1.920 Cardinals 21.909 22.625 0.716 0.659 Raiders 28.455 29.000 0.546 0.671 Bills 26.000 26.375 0.375 1.011 Giants 10.818 11.125 0.307 -0.648 Bears 4.091 4.375 0.284 -0.966 Packers 5.000 5.125 0.125 -0.227 Chiefs 31.455 31.500 0.046 0.171 49ers 4.727 4.375 -0.352 0.966 Jaguars 31.546 31.125 -0.421 0.204 Patriots 7.636 6.125 -1.511 -0.454 Buccaneers 13.273 11.250 -2.023 0.488 Browns 29.364 27.250 -2.114 -0.057 Lions 17.909 15.625 -2.284 -2.955 Broncos 6.182 3.875 -2.307 -0.125 Jets 26.818 24.250 -2.568 2.637 Redskins 22.818 20.125 -2.693 -0.636 Rams 22.455 19.625 -2.830 0.000 Cowboys 16.273 12.750 -3.523 1.648 Seahawks 11.273 7.625 -3.648 -0.637 Panthers 28.182 18.625 -9.557 1.375

Observations:

Colts are still grossly over-ranked. If only they'd stop winning ...

Even though they dropped in the subjective rankings, the Falcons are still rather over-ranked.

It amuses me slightly that the Eagles are still slightly over-rated.

The Panthers are still grossly over-ranked. Sure, they got blown-out by the Broncos, but they're still better than 4th-worst.

Sources