The Vancouver Canucks seem to have an affinity for drafting defencemen in the fifth round, and for a franchise known for selecting their fair share of duds at the draft table, they’ve had more luck than you’d think. Kevin Bieksa, Ben Hutton, and Frank Corrado are all former fifth-round selections made by the Canucks that have played in the NHL, and Carl Neill, another fifth-round selection, was our 16th prospect in this year’s consensus ranking.

The selection of Cole Candella at 140th overall continues that trend, and there’s reason to believe he could be another member of what’s become a long line of respectable d-men drafted in the fifth round by the Canucks. In what was otherwise a pretty forgettable 2016 draft, (Olli Juolevi notwithstanding,) he was easily the Canucks’ best value pick of the draft, helping him land in the #12 spot in this year’s consensus ranking.

Candella is exactly the type of player teams should be looking to take a flyer on late in the draft. He skates well, plays with a physical edge, and has a hard, accurate wrist shot. His defensive game needs refinement, but that’s true of all 18-year-old defenders. Besides, any player available in the fifth round is sure to have some flaws.

Candella was thrust into a leadership role earlier than expected when the veteran defenceman and Bulldogs captain Justin Lemcke broke his leg early in the season. Candella had a tremendous first half, but he was sidelined by an injury of his own for roughly half of the season. Because of his injury, his Central Scouting rank fell from 65th to 85th among North American Skaters, in spite of being sixth overall in points-per-game by OHL defencemen. That’s what makes the selection such a shrewd one. Using a draft pick on a player that spent much of the season recovering from injury isn’t without risk, but the Canucks are betting that Candella is every bit as good as his pre-injury stat line suggests.

The sample size is the biggest issue when it comes to determining just what exactly the Canucks have in Candella. Even one full season of OHL action is already very little to go on, so the fact that he was limited to only 37 games presents a variety of question marks. Scoring at over a half-point-per-game is undoubtedly very impressive for a first-year draft-eligible defenceman, but with such a limited sample it’s difficult to pinpoint how much of this is teammate driven, favourable percentages, or the player himself. He began to cool off before being injured, so it’s entirely possible Candella’s performance was largely predicated on luck. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to tell whether or not Candella’s performance in his most recent campaign is an accurate reflection of his abilities.

It’s easy to see what the Canucks see in him, though. He was a fixture on both special teams for the Bulldogs last season and possesses an incredibly well-rounded game. He’s a fast, play-driving defender who makes a good first pass and can effectively enter the offensive zone with control of the puck. What struck me the most about Candella’s game was the accuracy of his shot. He only scored four goals last season, but he was consistently able to get shots off quickly and get them on net, frequently setting up teammates for rebounds or tip-ins.

Courtesy of the Future Considerations Prospect Guide:

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“Candella is a strong-skating, smart, two-way blueliner who plays in all situations. He displays his offensive side as he skates the puck up ice, fully driving the play for a controlled zone entry before making a pass or taking it in deep on his own. His passes are easy to handle and are sent with purpose, getting through lanes and on the tape in a timely manner. On the power play, Candella moves the puck around the zone well. He has a quick and hard shot that he can get off rather quickly. He shows off some of his smarts on the penalty kill as he positions himself well on the man approaching a loose puck to win control and clear it in a hurry. Candella shows good awareness in retrieval as he senses the time he has to make a play, knowing when the man is about to check him as he gets to puck and dishes it behind the net to keep possession with his team and take the hit. He has no problem taking a hit to make a play and is willing to play physically, even delivering an open-ice check when the opportunity presents itself.“

Obviously, you hate to see any player sustain a major injury, but it’s clear that the Canucks benefited from Candella seeing limited action last season. We’ll never know if Candella would have sustained his scoring pace over a full season, but we can safely assume that if he had managed to do so, he wouldn’t have fallen all the way down to 140th where the Canucks selected him.

The prospect Graduation Probabilities System (pGPS) indicates 19.2% of Candella’s statistical matches have gone on to play over 200 games at the NHL level, which is right in the range of what you’d expect from a second round pick, representing a significant win for the organization relative to where they drafted him.

Candella will be worth keeping a close eye on next season, as he’s likely to get top-pairing minutes on an improving Hamilton Bulldogs team that should be in the hunt for a playoff spot in 2016-17. Candella was already second in scoring among defencemen for the Bulldogs, with only half a season under his belt. If he’s able to remain healthy, there’s reason to believe he could be the team’s top defender next year. Hopefully, he’ll get to prove that last season wasn’t just a one-off. If that’s the case, expect Cole Candella to climb our rankings come next fall.





