Tom Brady, LeGarrette Blount

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) hands off to running back LeGarrette Blount (29) during the first half of an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos, Sunday, Nov. 29, 2015, in Denver. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

(Jack Dempsey)

FOXBOROUGH -- Numbers can be deceiving, but in this case, they accurately represent a trend in the Patriots' offense.

The Pats have struggled lately on third down. As CSNNE's Tom Curran pointed out, the Pats are 15-for-52 on third down since Julian Edelman's injury. Prior to that, they were converting better than 50 percent of their opportunities.

And next up on the schedule: the league's best third down defense in Houston.

"I think it's a lot of - its third down - but I think they've also, if you look at statistically, yeah, absolutely the first and second downs lead to long third downs and long third downs," Patriots quarterback Tom Brady said Wednesday. "Nobody's good in third-and-eight-plus in the NFL. It's a passing down, the coverage is too tight, the rush is too good. If you make one or two of those per game it's usually pretty good for an offense."

Brady raises a solid point. Some of the Patriots' third-down struggles are undoubtedly tied to what has happened on early downs. The running game, in particular, has put them in long-yardage situations.

Over the past four games, all without Dion Lewis, 45.4 percent of the Patriots' rushing attempts have gone for two yards or less. See the numbers below.

Through Week 9

Dion Lewis: 14 of 49 carries (28.6 percent) went for two yards or less

Past Four Games

LeGarrette Blount: 25 of 57 carries (43.8 percent) have gone for two yards or less

James White/Brandon Bolden: 10 of 20 carries (50 percent) have gone for two yards or less



(Note: These figures exclude successful short-yardage conversions; for example, if Blount gets two yards on a 3rd-and-1 or scores a touchdown on a 1st-and-goal from the 1-yard-line, that didn't count as a carry that went for two yards or less).



In the past four games, excluding short-yardage 1st-and-goal carries, Blount has 32 touches for 128 yards on first down (four yards per touch). Doesn't look bad. But consider: Blount has 17 first down carries that have gone for two yards or less. He is routinely putting New England's offense in a tough spot, creating long-yardage situations.

Neither Bolden nor White has been a factor on first down; together, they have 7 touches for 30 yards in the past four games.

The Patriots were never gong to replace Dion Lewis' production. He had an incredible 297 yards on 42 first down opportunities, a rate of 7.1 yards per touch. To expect Blount, White and Bolden to duplicate this would be highly unrealistic.

But, clearly, the Patriots need more production and better consistency from their running game so they can avoid dangerous 2nd-and-long or 3rd-and-long scenarios.