Nearly 100 days into his chaotic administration—in the wake of "Flynnghazi" and "alternative facts"-gate; amid the seismic missteps of the travel ban and Trumpcare—Donald Trump appears to be on the cusp of learning a terrifying lesson regarding the political reality of life within Washington D.C. Whereas Trump was able to win the electoral college partly by exploiting divisions within both the left and right, he is finding that governing over two fractious parties is a bit of a headache. And it's a challenge that may require a more lucid response than Trump's ad hoc management style. Most presidencies are humbled at their outset, but the successful ones learn from their mistakes at the next legislative turn. Trump, however, appears hellbent on doing as he pleases, which appears increasingly likely to ally his enemies against him—perhaps one day even across party lines.

During much of his first 100 days, Trump's largest errors were unforced. But now come some of the unavoidable difficulties. As the April 29 deadline to approve a new Congressional budget looms, Trump's greatest forthcoming challenge appears to be the increasingly real threat of a government shutdown. The astonishing implosion of the Obamacare repeal bill just over a week ago laid bare the divisions within the G.O.P. The stark ideological differences between conservative Republican hardliners and their more moderate peers are already threatening consensus in the nascent budget debate. As Axios reports, the far-right House Freedom Caucus intends to use the looming fight to curtail government spending by defunding Planned Parenthood and the Affordable Care Act. The Freedom House Caucus, as evidenced during the Trumpcare debacle, commands more than enough votes to sink any Republican legislation in the House. And as also demonstrated, the Freedom Caucus does not like to be told what to do. Meanwhile, Trump appears already boxed in. After all, the Freedom Caucus's reported budget strategy is guaranteed to draw pushback from centrist Republicans, which would force G.O.P. leadership to seek Democratic help.

The Democrats, of course, have indicated that they aren’t willing to play nice, especially with next week's Senate confirmation vote on Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch shaping up to be a bloody showdown between Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. And persuading Democrats will only prove more difficult if the G.O.P. is forced to go along with Senator John McCain’s push to bolster the Defense budget. The Arizona senator, who is reportedly seeking a $640 billion defense budget, told David Axelrod that he will oppose any bill that doesn’t increase military spending—even if it means a government shutdown. “I will not vote for a continuing resolution no matter what the consequences,” McCain asserted. With a slim majority of 52 to 48 in the Senate, Republicans can’t risk losing McCain’s vote, but Democrats are unlikely to approve a budget that increases military spending without respective increases in non-defense expenditures. Any bill that includes funding for Trump’s “beautiful” border wall or slashing funding for Planned Parenthood also guarantees Democratic opposition.

A government shutdown would obviously serve Democrats politically. With majorities in both houses of Congress and Trump in the White House, the failure to reach consensus on a budget would be unilaterally blamed on the G.O.P. In an e-mail to Axios, a senior Democratic aide argued that a shutdown “would completely be viewed by the public as a function of Republican dysfunction.” Steve Elmendorf, a top Democratic lobbyist, echoed the sentiment. “The only way you get to a shutdown is incompetence, which this group is certainly capable of,” Elmendorf told Axios’s Mike Allen.