Heidi M. Przybyla

USA TODAY

Bernie Sanders says he's not just a one-issue candidate who appeals to white voters. The state of Nevada will decide whether he's right.

The Silver State holds its Democratic caucuses on Saturday, and a new CNN/ORC poll shows Hillary Clinton and the Vermont senator in a dead heat. If Clinton loses, it would be the third and perhaps most striking sign yet that her path to the Democratic nomination is anything but inevitable.

The Clinton campaign attributed her unexpectedly narrow Iowa win and 22-point loss in New Hampshire to the states’ overwhelmingly white electorates, which favor Sanders.

They can’t make the same argument about Nevada, where minority voters in 2008 accounted for 30% of caucusgoers, a number that could be higher on Saturday.

“They’ve got a real problem if they lose here because then Sanders can say ‘I’m not just a white candidate, I can win anywhere,’ ’’ said Jon Ralston, who runs a Nevada politics newsletter.

Right now, “they’re (Clinton) doing everything they can to stop the bleeding,” said Ralston. “It’s very difficult to turn around momentum in politics.”

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Targeting the state’s minority populations has been key to Clinton's approach, which includes a Latina-to-Latina phone banking program, Spanish-language caucus training, endorsements from African-American faith leaders and outreach to the state’s growing Asian population. Filipino Clinton staffers have been hosting traditional dinners with locals featuring customary banana-leaf seating. She also has the endorsement of most of the state's big unions.

Much like in Iowa, Sanders campaign is leaner. He is rerouting organizers from Iowa and New Hampshire to coordinate an army of volunteers who set up shop on their own before he had a significant presence in the state. Flush with millions of dollars in donations on the heels of New Hampshire, he’s also matching Clinton on television ads.

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“The Sanders campaign is throwing a lot of money at Nevada in this last week or two to try and make up ground,” said Rep. Xavier Becerra, a California Democrat supporting Clinton who’s trying to rally Latinos.

Sanders is also getting an assist from at least two outside Republican spending groups that have released online ads targeting Clinton on immigration and other issues.

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The stakes are high for both campaigns, Becerra said. “Nevada is a state that will give us a closer read of where the general population is in the country,” he said.

Nevada was supposed to be a solid brick in Clinton’s firewall of support.

Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, ran her Nevada operation in 2008 and has hired several veterans of then-senator Barack Obama's campaign. Clinton won the popular vote in the state's caucuses in 2008, though Obama ended up with more delegates.

The Clinton campaign opened its first office in July, while Sanders didn't set up shop until October.

Rania Batrice, a Sanders spokeswoman, said Nevadans for Bernie have been “self-organizing” and that “It’s just like in Iowa.”

Still, Billy Vassiliadis, a longtime Democratic consultant backing Clinton, called Ralston’s assessment that Clinton is bleeding a “gross over dramatization.” If Clinton loses Nevada, she’ll mimic Obama’s successful nomination route, he said, which included losses in Nevada and New Hampshire coupled with wins in Iowa and South Carolina.

“You’ve got a state that was decimated by the recession,” including the highest foreclosure rates in the country and public universities raising tuition rates, Vassiliadis said. “Working folks are still digging out from that” and Sanders has “channeled the anger of some folks that are really resentful of what happened.”

In a debate in Milwaukee last week, Clinton and Sanders sparred over immigration, an exchange getting closer scrutiny in light of Nevada’s sizable Latino population.

Sanders said he opposed efforts to send back children from Central America streaming across the U.S. southern border, while Clinton supported deporting them.

Clinton said the children had to be returned “to send a message” to their families not to send them on a dangerous journey where they could be kidnapped and abused. Her campaign is highlighting Sanders’ opposition to 2007 legislation to provide legal status and a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. Sanders said he opposed the bill because its guest-worker provisions were “akin to slavery.”

Which candidate Latinos side with is among the “wild cards” that make Nevada an especially tough state to forecast, said Ralston.

The outcome also depends on how many young people register on the day of the caucus and whether Republicans who want to cast a protest vote against Clinton decide to participate in the Democratic caucus, which is allowed under Nevada’s rules.

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Sensing an opportunity, the Sanders campaign is already calling Republicans, said Ralston.

Both Sanders and Clinton aides expect the Vermont senator will peel off some Latino voters who strongly backed her in 2008, especially young working-class voters.

The Clinton campaign is downplaying Nevada amid Sanders' ascent in polls. In a memo released just after New Hampshire, Mook stressed the importance of looking past the first four races, which he noted represent just 4% of the delegates needed to clinch the nomination.

Yet, even if Clinton does lose Nevada because of low minority participation, that will be hard for her campaign to explain, said Ralston.

If fewer minorities turn out due to lack of enthusiasm, Ralston said: “That’s the Clinton campaign’s fault."