On September 1st, I published an article detailing what I found to be the most concise conservative argument for impeachment of Donald J. Trump. To recap, I stated that President Trump, through certain unconstitutional actions, warranted impeachment in the House of Representatives. However, I did not feel he warranted a conviction in the Senate. His actions could be stopped by outside means and therefore he did not deserve removal from office.

While I specifically directed this argument towards conservatives, it applied to people on all sides of the aisle. Democrats at the time were desperately looking for a reason to impeach, but could not bring themselves to do it. To be frank, I had little faith in impeachment ever coming along. Republicans were marching in lockstep behind the President, with few exceptions. Meanwhile, Democrats seemed scared they would be walking into a repeat of the Lewinsky scandal if they impeached. The most prominent cases for impeachment appeared to be the Russian collusion story or the points that I made in my article.

If you had told me a month ago that impeachment would come from a phone call with the Ukrainian president, I would have scoffed. And yet, here we are.

On July 25th, Donald Trump called Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, to congratulate him on a victory in the Ukrainian parliamentary elections. In the call, Trump seems to ask Zelensky to investigate Joe Biden and share whatever dirt Zelensky finds. If this were indeed the impetus for the call, the ramifications would be Watergate-worthy. Using tax-payer money proscribed by Congress for foreign aid to coerce the country in question into helping the President’s re-election is certainly impeachable and worthy of conviction.

However, the scandal does not stop there. According to a separate whistleblower report released last week, President Trump then attempted to have the transcript of his call with the Ukrainian president wiped from the government server it was on. Reportedly, the White House eventually stored it along with phone calls labeled top-secret, even though nothing in the call warranted a top-secret designation. The President, through his personal lawyers, attempted to erase records and obscure evidence of phone calls he made from the Oval Office.

Why does that sound familiar?

The obvious Watergate-implications aside, the concept of impeachment suddenly became much more real. Democrats launched an official impeachment inquiry at the end of last week. The odds are good that we will have a vote on articles of impeachment before the Christmas recess. Barring some Christmas miracle, I suspect the vote will be in favor of impeachment.

That brings us to the title of this piece.

The odds of impeachment in the House are high. The odds of conviction, however, seem slim to none. Partisanship in Congress has eroded any sense of principles or intellectual consistency. At this point, It seems implausible that 20 Republican senators will stand up to the base and vote to convict. It’s not 1974 anymore. There are no Barry Goldwaters to warn the President of his coming conviction. No Republican Senator is going to go to President Trump, as Goldwater went to Nixon, and tell him that Congress will convict him if he doesn’t resign. Even if there was, Trump would not listen.

The games played on the Senate floor will be dramatic, to be sure. I do not doubt that a few principled souls will stand up for the Constitution. But I am pretty sure that when the dust settles, Trump will still be in office. The players will have played their game, and those on the side of principles will have lost.

But don’t let my cynical take on impeachment detract you from doing what is right. I, for one, will still contact my representatives and implore them to vote for impeachment. I urge everyone reading this to do so as well. Ask your representatives, Republican or Democrat, Representative or Senator, to stand up for the Constitution, and for honor and dignity. Ask them to impeach, and convict, Donald J. Trump.

Scott Howard is a constitutionally-minded conservative freelance writer with a focus on fiscal matters and foreign policy. You can follow him on Twitter: Follow @thenextTedCruz

Editor’s Note: I agree that actual removal on the current grounds of the Ukraine controversy is unlikely. There are, however, several other possible scenarios that could play out.

President Trump escaped the Mueller probe largely unscathed, but the depictions of the White House’s attempts to obstruct the investigation as presented in the Mueller Report were stark. If the President engages in similar behavior during what will be the much more public process of inquiry and impeachment, it will become harder and harder for Republicans to defend the actions of a President so visibly attempting to be above the law. The chances of Trump digging himself deeper are extremely high and such a scenario could lose him Republican support.

Alternately, the President could resign. Donald Trump’s reptilian sense of self-preservation may lead him to see resignation as a way to save face and avoid facing the country at the polls. If his focus turns to his post-presidency image, he might conclude that being ran “unfairly” out of office is a better story then getting voted out. Trump hates losers. He would much rather be a victim. – Justin

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