| Azlan Othman |

BRUNEI Darussalam’s economy is projected to grow steadily in the next few years. The gross domestic product (GDP) is slated to grow at 4.8 per cent this year, 6.6 per cent in 2020 and 2.2 per cent in 2024.

This is according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report this week.

The report said the Sultanate’s GDP recorded a two per cent contraction in 2018 reversing its earlier forecast of 2.3 per cent as stated in its report in October last year.

Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) revealed earlier this month that the Sultanate will see the GDP grow by 1.0 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent next year (2020).

The ADB also estimated a one per cent contraction for Brunei’s economy last year reversing its 1.3 per cent growth.

In its report last year, the IMF said the start of downstream production including from the Hengyi Refinery at Pulau Muara Besar (PMB) and Brunei Fertilizer Industries (BFI) at the Sungai Liang Industrial Park and stronger oil and gas activities will result in robust GDP growth and exports in 2019-23.

Meanwhile, the ADB said that as refineries resume normal production this year, growth will likely return and inflation edge up, though the current account surplus will continue to shrink.

Domestic investment rose by a whopping 23.1 per cent, largely reflecting continued work on the Hengyi Refinery, the Temburong Bridge Project and a fertiliser plant for Brunei Fertilizer Industries.

The Department of Economic Planning and Development (JPKE) under the Ministry of Finance and Economy (MoFE) on April 10 said the country’s economy in 2018 grew by 0.1 per cent after a 1.3 per cent growth in 2017.

The department added that overall growth was achieved after GDP in the fourth quarter of 2018 (Q4 2018) recorded a positive growth.

During the budget deliberation at the Legislative Council session in March this year, it was revealed that economic growth for 2018 was at 0.1 per cent, which is much lower than the forecast due to a decline in the oil and gas sector by -0.1 per cent caused by falling global oil market prices.

Despite this, the non-oil and gas sector recorded a positive growth of 0.5 per cent in 2018, mainly contributed by the agricultural, livestock, wholesale and retail trade subsectors.

The IMF said the escalation of US-China trade tensions, needed credit tightening in China, macroeconomic stress in Argentina and Turkey, disruptions to the auto sector in Germany, and financial tightening alongside the normalisation of monetary policy in the larger advanced economies have all contributed to a significantly weakened global expansion, especially in the second half of 2018.

With this weakness expected to persist into the first half of 2019, the new World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects a slowdown in growth in 2019 for 70 per cent of the world economy. Global growth softened to 3.6 per cent in 2018 and is projected to decline further to 3.3 per cent in 2019.

With improved prospects for the second half of 2019, global growth in 2020 is projected to return to 3.6 per cent. This recovery is precarious and predicated on a rebound in emerging market and developing economies, where growth is projected to increase from 4.4 per cent in 2019 to 4.8 per cent in 2020.