A whopping 64 per cent of voters opposed deregulating the setting of university fees, with just 28 per cent in favour. Forty per cent of voters supported Mr Abbott's signature paid parental leave scheme and 54 per cent opposed it. Illustration: Matt Golding. And 41 per cent of voters backed a rise in the GST in exchange for income tax cuts – an idea that came into sharp focus last week as Mr Abbott called for a debate about the federation and tax system – while 52 per cent opposed the idea. Overall, the poll of 1401 voters, conducted between Thursday and Saturday, shows the Coalition trails Labor 49 per cent to 51 per cent, meaning the government would probably have narrowly lost an election if one were held over the weekend. But the government will be buoyed by a surge in support since the last Fairfax Nielsen poll was conducted in July.

During that time, Mr Abbott has crafted an uncompromising reputation on national security, taking a lead role in the outrage over the downing of Malaysian Airways flight MH17 and his now famous threat to "shirt front" Russian President Vladimir Putin. The poll results are based on a nationally representative survey of 1,401 respondents (aged 18+) conducted by telephone on 30 Oct-1 Nov 2014. The two-party vote is estimated on the basis of preference flows in the 2013 election. Deploying forces to confront Islamic State also appears to have enhanced his approval in the electorate. During the period since the last Fairfax Nielsen poll, he has secured the repeal of the carbon and mining taxes and last week saw the passage of his Direct Action climate-change legislation. The Coalition's two-party preferred vote has risen from 46 per cent to 49 per cent and its primary vote has risen from 39 per cent to 42 per cent.

In the days after the unpopular May budget, the Coalition's two-party preferred vote in the Fairfax Nielsen fell as low as 44 per cent to Labor's 56 per cent. Primary support for the Coalition is now at a six-month high, while Labor is back where it was in June as it railed against a deeply unpopular Budget. Labor's two-party preferred vote has fallen three points, from 54 per cent to 51 per cent, while its primary vote has dropped from 40 per cent to 37 per cent. Fairfax Ipsos pollster Jessica Elgood said Mr Abbott appeared to have benefited from, among other things, his government's strong national security focus. "In terms of the Coalition figures, the increase reflects Mr Abbott's greater international profile and his strong position in deploying troops and taking on Vladimir Putin," Ms Elgood said.

"That has played strongly for him but time will tell if that's a longer-term trend." "Personal support for Bill Shorten has risen over the last few months, which essentially reflects the bipartisan position he has taken on the international posture of the Abbott government." The surge in Mr Abbott's personal standing has been dramatic, with the prime minister's approval rating rising 4 percentage points to 42 per cent and his disapproval rating falling 7 percentage points to 49 per cent. This gives Mr Abbott a net negative approval rating of -7 per cent, an 11 per cent improvement on the -18 net negative approval rating recorded in July. Mr Abbott and Mr Shorten are now tied as preferred Prime Minister on 41 per cent each, with no change recorded for Mr Abbott, and Mr Shorten seeing a 5 per cent drop in support since July as preferred prime minister.

And while Labor has seen its two-party preferred and primary votes fall away, opposition leader Bill Shorten's bipartisan approach to these international events appears to have paid dividends. His approval rating has risen 2 percentage points since July to 43 per cent, while his disapproval rating has fallen 4 percentage points since July. The biggest loser in the October poll is the Palmer United Party. Its primary support almost halved to just three per cent as leader Clive Palmer struggled to keep a handle on volatile Senator Jacqui Lambie and sided with the government on a number of issues. Support for the Greens remains stronger than at the 2013 election at 12 per cent. The telephone poll included 21 per cent of calls to mobiles phones and has a 2.6 per cent margin for error.

UNIVERSITY FEES Almost two-thirds of Australians oppose the Abbott government's move to allow universities to set their own fees amid concern over "$100,000 courses" that would put tertiary education out of the reach of some students. The first Fairfax Ipsos poll found support for university deregulation, championed by Education Minister Christopher Pyne, is at just 28 per cent. The finding is likely to stiffen the resolve of Clive Palmer who has so far refused to support the government's education reforms through the Senate. Labor and the Greens oppose fee deregulation and the government said last week it was prepared to delay the start date by a year in a bid to convince Mr Palmer and his three Senate cross-benchers.

The task is a big one, with the Palmer United Party leader calling for a return to free university courses rather than higher fees. Sixty-four per cent of respondents oppose deregulation. Among university graduates, opposition is even greater at 72 per cent. But opposition is greatest among TAFE or university students, with just 21 per cent in favour and 76 per cent against. The government has just two weeks to pass its reforms through the Senate if the new system is to begin in 2016 but Mr Pyne said on Friday that he was willing to delay the start date to get the reforms through. That means school leavers will be forced to apply for courses without clarity on what the total cost of their degree or diploma will be.

Deregulation of the sector is supposed to fund an expansion of government subsidies for diploma courses and bring student loans for private and TAFE students into line with the Higher Education Contribution Scheme (HECS). GST Raising the GST remains deeply unpopular with voters, according to the Fairfax Ipsos poll. And while Tony Abbott may want a "mature debate" about reforming Australia's federation and tax system, just 41 per cent of voters would support an increase in the consumption tax even if their personal income tax was cut as well. A decisive 52 per cent of voters oppose a rise in the GST even if it is coupled with income tax cuts.

Raising the rate of the GST is also more unpopular outside capital cities, in the National Party's political heartland, too. In capital cities, 43 per cent of people surveyed would support a rise in the tax if in exchange for a cut in income tax with 49 per cent opposing it. But in the bush, just 37 per cent of people support a rise and a whopping 56 per cent of those surveyed oppose such a move. Mr Abbott, of course, has not yet outlined any plan to raise the rate of the GST – despite what federal Labor may suggest – and says the states must lead any push to do so. But if the Prime Minister does want a fairer distribution of GST revenue for states such as Victoria, NSW and particularly WA – which get back less than they pay into the federal pot – without poorer states missing out than changes to the consumption tax appear inevitable.

Whether, with one eye on 2016, Mr Abbott is willing to risk the political consequences remains to be seen. PAID PARENTAL LEAVE Prime Minister Tony Abbott's signature $5.5 billion paid parental leave scheme enjoys more than two-thirds support from voters under 40, but is still unpopular with voters overall. The Fairfax Ipsos poll has found 40 per cent of voters support the scheme and 54 per cent oppose it. But in the 18-24 age group, 69 per cent support the scheme and among people aged 25-39, it enjoys 64 per cent support. And of the 40 per cent of voters overall who support the scheme, 57 per cent believe it should be a high priority for the Abbott government. But just 17 per cent of voters 55 support the scheme.

The scheme pays women 26 weeks' salary at their full wage, capped at $50,000, and is funded mostly by a 1.5 per cent tax on big business. It is politically unpopular in the Coalition party room too, with five of Mr Abbott's own senators flagging they may vote against the scheme when it is presented to the Parliament. It is also opposed by Labor, the Senate cross bench, the Palmer United Party and even the Greens, though their scheme is almost identical. Loading The scheme is due to commence operating from July 1, 2015. With just two more sitting weeks due in the parliamentary year, the expectation among Coalition MPs is that the legislation to establish the scheme will be introduced in early 2015. Follow us on Twitter