New projections show Kansas and Missouri coronavirus fallout peaking on same day—and there’s good news

A graph shows resource use in Kansas during the coronavirus pandemic

Up-to-date protections for the fallout of the coronavirus projection now show Kansas and Missouri both reaching “peak resource use” on the same day: April 19.

The good news? The curve has been flattened.

In both states, the supply of available total hospital beds and ICU beds far outpaces the projected needs. That means that doctors and patients here are expected to be spared gut-wrenching decisions about how to allocate finite resources in a triage situation.

The data comes from the University of Washington, which has assembled a data visualization portal called the Chris Murray Model that maps the projected needs in each state against the currently available resources.

Dr. Christopher Murray is the Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine. Murray’s model initially showed a far worse situation but has been modified as data shows that social distancing is working.

“The trajectory of the pandemic will change—and dramatically for the worse—if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions,” he said on Sunday. “Our projections are strengthened by the new downturns in more regions. This is evidence that social distancing is crucial. Our forecasts assume that social distancing remains in place until the end of May.”

Both Kansas and Missouri are expected to see a spike in COVID-19 cases throughout this week, with both states projected to have nearly ten deaths per day from the virus starting April 12. The projections show the curve remaining high for another ten days before they start to taper off.

Nationally, the peak is expected to come on April 15, with the United States losing about 3,000 people per day to the virus SARS-CoV-2.

The 9/11 attacks killed 2,977 civilians—the novel coronavirus had already killed more in New York by April 3.

In total, the latest projections show 81,766 deaths from COVID-19 across the country by August 4. That would include 265 deaths in Kansas and 352 deaths in Missouri.

There are 327 million Americans and about 9 million in Kansas and Missouri combined. The projections show the states suffering only a third of the casualties to be expected based solely on their combined population, which would be greater than 2,000.