Marcus Rashford is set to replace Raheem Sterling in England’s starting lineup against Panama on Sunday, while Gareth Southgate has warned his players to expect an awkward physical challenge against the Central Americans.

The team’s selection plans may have inadvertently been leaked by the assistant manager, Steve Holland, on Thursday after he was photographed walking on to the training pitch for a session at Spartak Zelenogorsk’s stadium clutching a sheet of paper upon which appeared to be written the starting XI for the Group G fixture in Nizhny Novgorod. On it, Southgate’s first-choice selection appeared to be detailed in formation with each player’s understudy listed underneath.

The lineup indicated Ruben Loftus-Cheek would step into midfield to replace the injured Dele Alli, who was listed as “medical” at the foot of the page having remained at the team hotel to receive treatment on a thigh strain.

Rashford, who made a 22-minute cameo against Tunisia on Monday, was placed alongside the captain, Harry Kane, in attack, with Sterling listed as Loftus-Cheek’s backup in an attacking No 8 role. That would suggest the Manchester City forward will start Sunday’s second group game on the bench.

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Southgate, who dislocated his right shoulder on Wednesday while jogging but spurned the chance to wear his arm in a sling, has been hugely supportive of Sterling since assuming the reins of the national team, standing by the forward as he found himself caught in a media storm before the tournament over a tattoo of an M-16 assault rifle on his right calf, and praising the player’s initially energetic display against Tunisia. However, the 23-year-old’s performance dipped as the game progressed in Volgograd and he has now gone 21 England games without a goal, stretching back to October 2015.

Rashford, in contrast, offered a more obvious direct threat in partnership with Kane and the Manchester United forward has now fully recovered from the knock to his knee which had sidelined him for England’s first two training sessions in Zelenogorsk. His impressive display against Costa Rica in Leeds just before the tournament has in effect put him ahead of Jamie Vardy in the pecking order and the 20-year-old now expected to make his first World Cup start on Sunday.

Southgate, recently returned from a local hospital, conducted a team meeting on Wednesday evening at the squad’s hotel where he made clear the physical threat posed by Panama. He has warned his players, and particularly his forwards, to expect heavy-handed treatment, with Hernán Darío Gómez’s side having picked up five bookings in their 3-0 defeat to Belgium. The England manager urged his players to stand up to the challenge early on to set the tone for their display, with Loftus-Cheek’s inclusion in the lineup adding more physical presence to the selection.

The Football Association was apparently relaxed at the photographs from the training ground – they have erected 3m high fences at the stadium in Zelenogorsk to prevent passersby seeing into the complex – but, unless the leak was a deliberate attempt to mislead their opponents, Southgate may now repeat his tactic of telling the players his team well in advance of the fixture. He had broken away from recent tradition by choosing to name the side 48 hours before the Tunisia game in a bid to ensure greater focus.

“The games we play each week in the Premier League are usually physical and it’s something the lads enjoy, the team enjoys,” said Jordan Henderson. “There were quite a lot of fouls in the middle of the pitch by Tunisia and I am sure Panama will be similar and they will try and make it difficult for us. It is another tough test, but I think we have a lot of big lads in the team who will look forward to the physical side of things.

“We will match them physically. That is what is good about this team. We have that side to us and we also have the creative, tactical side that you saw the other night.”

More worrying for England may be the weather in Nizhny Novgorod, the locals expect Sunday afternoon’s game to be played in temperatures in excess of 30 degrees. England’s session on Thursday was conducted in far cooler conditions of around 18 degrees.

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Regardless, Southgate will demand focus from his players as they seek to secure qualification from the group. “The manager said the game against Tunisia was a good performance and a good result, but we can still get better,” added Henderson. “The overall message was move on. I remember at the Euros: we scored a last minute winner against Wales and everyone was positive. Two games later we were out and people were saying we were the worst team. So we have to go again now. The focus for everyone is Tunisia has gone, let’s move on.”