As I did last year, I want to analyze the rushing stats for each team in 2014 using a metric known as Adjusted Rushing Yards per Carry. Thanks to the help of Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats), we were able to conclude that the value of a first down was about 9 yards. And since we’ve previously determined that the marginal value of a touchdown is 20 yards, this means Adjusted Rushing Yards per Carry is pretty easy to calculate. Also, since Bryan Frye crunched the numbers, we might as well exclude all kneels from the process, too.

One thing to keep in mind (which I have forgotten in the past): since the NFL records-keeping process labels touchdowns as first downs, you should only assign 11 yards per touchdown if you are already giving 9 yards to all 1st downs. And since kneels are marked down as runs, you must back those out, too. As a result, here’s the formula to use:

Adjusted Rushing Yards per Carry = (Rush Yards + 11 * Rush TDs + 9 * Rush First Downs – Kneel Yards Lost ) / (Rushes – Kneels)

If we use this metric to analyze the 2014 season, how would it look? Seattle was by far the top rushing team in the NFL last year, rushing for 2,762 yards and 20 touchdowns on 525 carries, good for a 5.26 yards per carry average. But 19 of those 525 carries were kneels, and they went for -20 yards. In addition, Seattle not only led the league with 144 rushing first downs, the Seahawks gained a first down on 28.5% of non-kneel carries, also the highest mark in the NFL. Seattle averaged 8.49 Adjusted Rushing Yards per Carry, while the NFL average was 6.63. Since the Seahawks averaged 1.86 ARY/C over average for 506 non-kneel carries, that means Seattle rushed for 941 rushing yards (1.86 * 506) above average.

The full list for all 2014 teams, below:

Rk Tm Rush Yd TD YPC Kneel KY 1D 1D Rate ARY/C VALUE 1 SEA 525 2762 20 5.26 19 -20 144 28.5% 8.49 941 2 MIA 399 1872 12 4.69 14 -14 99 25.7% 7.56 355 3 BAL 448 2019 16 4.51 12 -13 113 25.9% 7.4 332 4 CIN 492 2147 19 4.36 13 -15 122 25.5% 7.24 291 5 NOR 406 1818 16 4.48 9 -9 101 25.4% 7.34 278 6 GNB 435 1917 14 4.41 20 -24 104 25.1% 7.3 278 7 DAL 508 2354 16 4.63 17 -18 106 21.6% 7.13 244 8 KAN 420 1918 18 4.57 8 -6 92 22.3% 7.16 216 9 SFO 470 2176 10 4.63 12 -13 104 22.7% 7.06 196 10 JAX 360 1633 9 4.54 3 -3 86 24.1% 7.03 140 11 PHI 474 1992 16 4.2 17 -12 109 23.9% 6.92 129 12 CAR 473 2036 10 4.3 8 -8 117 25.2% 6.9 122 13 MIN 413 1804 12 4.37 11 -15 90 22.4% 6.87 94 14 CHI 355 1441 8 4.06 13 -13 91 26.6% 6.9 92 15 NYJ 507 2280 11 4.5 6 -6 112 22.4% 6.82 91 16 DEN 443 1785 15 4.03 23 -22 98 23.3% 6.8 67 17 PIT 423 1752 10 4.14 16 -14 98 24.1% 6.78 58 18 WAS 401 1691 15 4.22 6 -6 88 22.3% 6.72 33 19 NWE 438 1727 13 3.94 21 -27 96 23% 6.62 -6 20 TEN 356 1447 6 4.06 12 -13 75 21.8% 6.4 -81 21 STL 395 1635 11 4.14 9 -10 79 20.5% 6.42 -84 22 ATL 372 1498 11 4.03 4 -4 75 20.4% 6.24 -144 23 IND 415 1612 9 3.88 18 -16 80 20.2% 6.16 -187 24 TAM 353 1375 7 3.9 1 0 72 20.5% 5.97 -235 25 HOU 551 2161 12 3.92 17 -20 108 20.2% 6.15 -258 26 DET 396 1422 11 3.59 19 -18 72 19.1% 5.86 -292 27 OAK 337 1240 4 3.68 5 -5 56 16.9% 5.4 -410 28 CLE 477 1728 17 3.62 6 -6 88 18.7% 5.76 -412 29 NYG 449 1603 13 3.57 8 -10 83 18.8% 5.68 -423 30 SDG 398 1367 6 3.43 12 -13 75 19.4% 5.49 -440 31 BUF 402 1482 7 3.69 10 -13 65 16.6% 5.5 -444 32 ARI 397 1308 6 3.29 15 -18 67 17.5% 5.22 -540

Okay, Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson are awesome. We already knew that. So let’s give some love to the Dolphins team that ranked 2nd in ARY/C and in VALUE. Running back Lamar Miller had a phenomenally underrated season, and offensive coordinator Bill Lazor managed to effective use Ryan Tannehill as a runner in read-option packages. The only question with Miami’s running game is why don’t they use Miller more often? The Dolphins were 12th in pass attempts and 22nd in rush attempts despite ranking 26th in NY/A and 2nd in YPC (and ARY/C). As Bill Barnwell noted, Miami had the third-lowest run ratio in the league on first-and-10 plays when the margin was within 14 points.

How about the Ravens checking in as the number three rushing team from last year? In 2013, Baltimore ranked dead last in this category with a horrific -722 Adjusted Rushing Yards over average value. As a result, it’s safe to say that Baltimore’s running game completed one of the greatest single-season turnovers in league history. Behind a retooled the line of Eugene Monroe, Kelechi Osemele, Jeremy Zuttah, All-Pro Marshal Yanda, and Ricky Wagner, running back Justin Forsett had a breakout season in 2014, and the Ravens rushing attack was the strength of the team in the post-Ray Rice era.

The next three teams on the list feature a trio of throwback runners from the SEC, two of whom had breakout seasons in 2014. After years of mediocre play, Mark Ingram finally showed the Saints what we all saw at Alabama: a hard-hitting, effective power runner who could carry a team for stretches. Ingram’s backup/successor in college, Eddie Lacy, helped provide similar balance to the Packers efficient offense. And from a stylistic standpoint, the same was true of Jeremy Hill in Cincinnati. The Bengals rookie had 105 more rushing yards than any other player in football over the last nine weeks of the season.

The Cowboys rushing attack, while excellent, fares slightly worse than you’d expect here. The culprit? An unimpressive first down rate. Dallas picked up a first down on 21.6% of all runs, slightly below the league-average rate. That may (or may not) be related to the fact that Tony Romo threw for a first down on a league-high 41% of dropbacks last year (including a particularly effective rate on third downs).

What about the worst teams?

Arizona ranked 32nd in YPC, 31st in rushing yards, and 29th in rushing TDs, so it’s not a surprise to see the Cardinals at the bottom of this list. Andre Ellington gained just 660 yards on 201 carries, and Arizona’s longest run all year was just 22 yards. The team is still expected to give Ellington the feature role this year, but did add a pair of Johnsons in the off-season (David, from Northern Iowa, in the draft, and Chris, from the Jets scrap heap).

Buffalo ranked 31st in this category a year ago, which was doubly troubling when the team was in equally rough shape at quarterback. As unimpressive as the team’s passing game was, the Bills ranked dead last in percentage of carries that went for a first down. As a result, the Bills traded for LeSean McCoy and added Percy Harvin in hopes of fixing the team’s anemic running game.

Finally, the Raiders had the second worst ARY/C of any team last year. Oakland ranked last in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, as Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew were unable to do much of anything. Against that backdrop, one Latavius Murray 90-yard run was enough to get him the job for 2015.

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.