You're Telling Me There's a Chance - WCS points at DreamHack Text by TL.net ESPORTS 2013 WCS Europe So You're Telling Me There's a Chance WCS longshots at DreamHack Bucharest



by stuchiu and Waxangel



Over the last few weeks, we've seen the death of many dreams. Dozens of progamers were eliminated from the WCS Europe and Korea Premier Leagues, alongside their hopes of earning enough WCS ranking points to qualify for the $250,000 World Finals at Blizzcon.



However, for some of these wretched souls, not all hope is lost. Blizzard's WCS tournaments may award the lion's share of ranking points, but there are still two, non-WCS tournaments remaining that will award a small number of precious points:



The chance of winning those tournaments? Small. The chance that WCS America, Europe, and Korea all play out in a way that doesn't raise the point cutoff line to the stratosphere? Even smaller.



Nonetheless, there's a chance.







WCS Point Rankings

Top 16 qualify for the World Finals at Blizzcon

Rank Player Points Region 1. INnoVation 5450 Korea T-2. Jaedong 4425 America T-2. Bomber* 4425 Korea 4. Polt 3800 America 5. Soulkey 3700 Korea T-6. aLive 3575 America T-6. Mvp* 3575 Europe 8. HerO 3500 America 9. TaeJa 3250 America 10. sOs 3200 Korea 11. Revival 3000 America 12. NaNiwa* 2750 Europe 13. Maru 2625 Korea 14. duckdeok 2500 Europe 15. Rain 2450 Korea 16. MC 2375 Europe Rank Player Points Region 17. ForGG 2225 Europe 18. First* 2200 Korea 19. Scarlett 2150 America 20. TLO* 2100 Europe 21. Stephano* 2025 Europe T-22. Alicia* 1850 America T-22. Symbol* 1850 Korea 24. Grubby* 1775 Europe 25. HyuN 1725 America 26. KangHo 1700 Korea 27. MMA 1650 Europe 28. RorO* 1625 Korea 29. Ryung* 1600 America 30. DIMAGA* 1450 Europe 31. LucifroN* 1325 Europe 32. Welmu 1250 Europe



Click for Full Standings



*Players with asterisks have been eliminated from the WCS Premier League. They are still eligible to earn ranking points from non-WCS tournaments.



Points at DreamHack Bucharest and IEM New York

Place Points 1st 750 2nd 450 3 - 4th 300 5 - 8th 225 9 - 12th 150 13 - 16th 75

As you can see, the maximum amount of points a player eliminated from WCS can earn right now is 1500, and that's IF he wins both DH Bucharest and IEM New York. Quite the tall order.



The bare minimum cutoff is currently 2376 points. That is the least amount of points with which one could possibly qualify for the World Finals. However, that requires an extremely unlikely sequence of events to occur, where MC is eliminated in the Ro16 of WCS Europe, and no other player ranked 17 or below earns enough points to end the season at 2376 or higher.



In terms of finding a more realistic "magic number," it's actually pretty difficult to figure out all the combinations (if someone wants to write a program that runs all possibilities...



Let's take a look at the six WCS outcasts travelling to Bucharest, who might dare to keep dreaming. These are the DH participants who are eliminated from WCS Premier League and have no other way to earn points.



Liquid`TLO Ranking: 20th

Current points: 2100

Going to IEM as well? Dunno.

Max potential points if he wins both DH and IEM: 3600

Chance of qualifying for World Finals: The same chance that the Papa John's showmatch between EG vs. TeamLiquid will actually happen this year.



TLO made important breakthroughs in the first WCS EU Premier League and at DreamHack Summer, where he came up with consecutive 5th place finishes. Prior to that he was more of a gatekeeper in the European scene, capable of dominating in the lower, group stages of tournaments but falling flat when he reached the elimination brackets. A top three finish at HomeStoryCup 7 seemed to confirm him as one of Europe's elite, and also briefly placed him among the top WCS point earners.



However, TLO was unable to keep up his good performances as the summer went on, and his WCS Grand Finals aspirations suffered a crippling blow when he fell out of the current WCS Europe Premier League in the Ro32 (he drew a tough group with defending champ Duckdeok, Happy, and SaSe).



When TLO was playing at his best this year, he managed to reach that all-important level where he could regularly upset Koreans, earning impressive wins against players like MC, viOLet, Squirtle and Life. However, his recent results haven't been nearly as impressive.



Luckily for TLO he's just a few hundred points outside the bracket, and is probably the only player on the list who wouldn't have to actually win a championship to make it to Blizzcon. No, "just" second place finishes at both DreamHack and IEM could do it for TLO. If TLO somehow gets a good result at Bucharest, Liquid should consider sending him to New York, as well as sabotaging Scarlett's (19th place, 2150 points) flight back to Korea.





Azubu.Symbol Ranking: Tie-22nd

Current points: 1850

Going to IEM as well? Probably not.

Max potential points if he wins both DH and IEM: 3350

Chance of qualifying for World Finals: The same chance that Azubu is a legitimate business.



Champions rise and fall. Teams form and disband. Strategies are discovered and discarded. And Symbol, he will always be there.



Since 2012, Symbol has been perhaps the most consistent player in the entire StarCraft 2 scene. He has reached the Ro16 of Code S five times in a row, placed high in numerous international tournaments, and has been a solid ace in team competitions. He was the Kong before JaeKong, finishing second place in four major tournaments. After placing second in the last WoL finals ever, Symbol went on to transition smoothly into HotS, while the champion RorO fell into obscurity.



Unfortunately for Symbol, the WCS system rewards big runs over consistency. Symbol's results in WCS Korea this season were top 4, top 8, and top 32—not enough to have a good shot at the World Finals. Even worse, he was unable to compete in any foreign tournaments at all in 2013 so far, after taking three second place finishes in 2012's international competitions.



Symbol has picked the worst time and place to start his international campaign for 2013, with Bucharest being hit with a sudden onslaught of formidable Koreans. It's also dubious as to whether or not Symbol can even recreate his foreign tournament form from 2012. There's no denying he was a big beneficiary of the BL-infestor style, with which he became one of the best Zergs in the entire world. While Symbol is still rather good in HotS, there's no doubt he's been knocked down several notches. He's been successful with plenty of other strategies such as Nydus all-ins and every variety of roach-bane bust, but none of them have the reliability of the good ol' BL-Infestor.



Even if Symbol can repeat his 2012 results and get second place at both DH and IEM, it may not be enough. He must do as Startale before him when they washed away the Kong Curse: He has to win, and win twice.





Axiom.Alicia Ranking: Tie-22nd

Current points: 1850

Going to IEM as well? Maybe, if he gets enough points at DreamHack to have a legit shot at the World Finals.

Max potential points if he wins both DH and IEM: 3350

Chance of qualifying for World Finals: The same chance that Jessica will make a phone call to cheer him on.



Although Alicia was able to pick up an impressive three international silver medals on SlayerS in 2012, he became largely anonymous after the team's messy break-up. After staying almost entirely off the progaming radar, Alicia showed that he had been keeping up a high level of play on Axiom when the new WCS system was introduced, as he placed top eight in the WCS Season 1 Finals and third at ASUS ROG Summer (which did not award WCS points for whatever reason).



Alicia's WCS America Season 2 was disappointing as he was eliminated in the Ro16 of the Premier League, but given his skill-level it seemed like he would be able to grind out enough points in Season 3 to barely make it to Blizzcon. However, things took a very sharp turn for the worst, and he suffered a shock elimination in the Challenger League. Against both HerO and MajOr he was just one win away from re-qualifying for Premier, but ended up blowing his chances of qualification and was left with a comical 25 points earned in Season 3.



Alicia is tied in points with Symbol at present, and his situation is similar as well: Second place finishes aren't going to cut it anymore. One advantage he does have over Symbol would be his team. This is a purely subjective read, but it seems more likely that Axiom would fly Alicia over to IEM New York than Azubu would do the same for Symbol should DreamHack Bucharest pan out favorably.





Grubby Ranking: 24th

Current points: 1750

Going to IEM as well? Dunno.

Max potential points if he wins both DH and IEM: 3250

Chance of qualifying for World Finals: The chance of Undead beating an Orc who only gets claw drops.



The Grubby line is dead and Grubby killed it. A long time ago, Grubby was a beacon of consistency. He had just enough skill where you could say he had a reasonable chance to upset a decent Korean. But that was the distant past, and Grubby has continued to travel on an upward trajectory. He broke the line and took second at his first major tournament at IEM Singapore, where he defeated MC in a dramatic series. He made it to the top 4 in WCS EU last season by eliminating Mvp in the Ro16, and nearly defeated the eventual champion in duckdeok.



Grubby has tenacity. Grubby has heart. On his best days it seems like he could beat anyone.



Except, well, this tournament is the hardest one Grubby has ever, ever played in. It's one thing to do well at tournaments with a handful of slightly past their prime Koreans. It's another to defeat a throng of elite Koreans who need those points just as much as he does. Even worse, some of the best players at the tournament are Terran. Grubby was brutally destroyed by Polt and Bomber at the past Season 2 finals, and his chances against players like INnoVation, Flash, TaeJa, or MMA seem slimmer than the





Axiom.Ryung Ranking: 28th

Current points: 1600

Going to IEM as well? Maybe, if he gets enough points at DreamHack to have a legit shot at the World Finals.

Max potential points if he wins both DH and IEM: 3100

Chance of qualifying for World Finals: The same chance that SC2 will overtake LoL in Korea.



Ryung's chances of qualifying are so low, we might as well go off topic.



For Ryung this is his best chance in a long time. Not to win DH, not to get to Blizzcon, but to finally kill all of the best Terrans in the world and get his respect and adoration he deserves. Yes, his TvP wavers from good to average on most days. Yes, his TvZ has been a mess in the last month as he has been beaten soundly by a multitude of Zergs. But TvT has been and will always be where Ryung shines the most. And for Ryung, all of the targets he could possibly want have all gathered here.



First on the list is MMA, a friendly rival Ryung has spent most of his career being overshadowed by. We assume that any argument between the two is solved by MMA pulling his two GSL trophies out of the display case and giving them a nice polish. Second on the list is Flash. Ryung was slowly building a rivalry with The Player Called God before the separation of WCS regions saw them part ways. After the two played some outstanding games against each other in WoL, a clash in HotS is a tantalizing prospect.



And the last player is Innovation. When Acer-Axiom first teamed up in GSTL, Ryung had a brief moment of triumph over MMA by becoming the de facto ace of the combined team. He was the player they relied on most to get them through tough spots, and he delivered under pressure. Unfortunately, that glory was short lived as INnoVation has forcefully wrested that spot away. Even worse, INnoVation even aided Ryung's arch-rival MMA, who said his improved TvP was a result of sitting next to INnoVation in the practice room. If Ryung wants that number one spot once more, he's going to have dismantle the robot Terran.





Roccat.DIMAGA Ranking: 30th

Current points: 1450

Going to IEM as well? Probably not

Max potential points if he wins both DH and IEM: 2950

Chance of qualifying for World Finals: The same chance that he'll get his back pay from mTw.



It's crystal clear that DIMAGA's 4th place finish in WCS Europe Season 1 was the result of an incredible, improbable run, and not a predictor of his results to come in HotS. He's done little of note afterward, and it wasn't surprising to see him fall to the Challenger League this season. That's not to say he's become bad or anything, just unremarkable.



However, that was pretty much the same position DIMAGA was in when he made his unlikely WCS Europe top-four run in the first place. The all-caps Zerg has those intangibles that make him stronger in clutch situations, and you underestimate him at your own risk.



That said, he's still a foreigner going into the most Korean packed DreamHack in history





******



While it may all seem impossible, the desperate nature of the situation coupled with the absolute need to win has created miracles before. The GSL started off with a miracle, as Fruitdealer made an incredible run. Mvp has won multiple championships with wrists held together by chewing gum and scotch tape. Qxc all-killed Incredible Miracle on their home turf at the height of their power. And even Inca once played a game without DTs and won.



Over the last few weeks, we've seen the death of many dreams. Dozens of progamers were eliminated from the WCS Europe and Korea Premier Leagues, alongside their hopes of earning enough WCS ranking points to qualify for the $250,000 World Finals at Blizzcon.However, for some of these wretched souls, nothope is lost. Blizzard's WCS tournaments may award the lion's share of ranking points, but there are still two, non-WCS tournaments remaining that will award a small number of precious points: DreamHack Bucharest and IEM New York. The chance of winning those tournaments? Small. The chance that WCS America, Europe, and Korea all play out in a way that doesn't raise the point cutoff line to the stratosphere? Even smaller.Nonetheless, there's a chance.As you can see, the maximum amount of points a player eliminated from WCS can earn right now isand that's IF he wins both DH Bucharest and IEM New York. Quite the tall order.That is the least amount of points with which one could possibly qualify for the World Finals. However, that requires an extremely unlikely sequence of events to occur, where MC is eliminated in the Ro16 of WCS Europe, andranked 17 or below earns enough points to end the season at 2376 or higher.In terms of finding a more realistic "magic number," it's actually pretty difficult to figure out all the combinations (if someone wants to write a program that runs all possibilities... www.Aligulac.com I'm looking at you!) given the number of players who can still earn points in WCS. If we had to take a stab on at it, it seems like high 3000's will lock a player into the top sixteen, while high 2000's could be enough for a small, outside chance.Let's take a look at the six WCS outcasts travelling towho might dare to keep dreaming. These are the DH participants who are eliminated from WCS Premier League and have no other way to earn points.20th2100Dunno.3600The same chance that the Papa John's showmatch between EG vs. TeamLiquid will actually happen this year.TLO made important breakthroughs in the first WCS EU Premier League and at DreamHack Summer, where he came up with consecutive 5th place finishes. Prior to that he was more of a gatekeeper in the European scene, capable of dominating in the lower, group stages of tournaments but falling flat when he reached the elimination brackets. A top three finish at HomeStoryCup 7 seemed to confirm him as one of Europe's elite, and also briefly placed him among the top WCS point earners.However, TLO was unable to keep up his good performances as the summer went on, and his WCS Grand Finals aspirations suffered a crippling blow when he fell out of the current WCS Europe Premier League in the Ro32 (he drew a tough group with defending champ Duckdeok, Happy, and SaSe).When TLO was playing at his best this year, he managed to reach that all-important level where he could regularly upset Koreans, earning impressive wins against players like MC, viOLet, Squirtle and Life. However, his recent results haven't been nearly as impressive.Luckily for TLO he's just a few hundred points outside the bracket, and is probably the only player on the list who wouldn't have to actually win a championship to make it to Blizzcon. No, "just" second place finishes at both DreamHack and IEM could do it for TLO. If TLO somehow gets a good result at Bucharest, Liquid should consider sending him to New York, as well as sabotaging Scarlett's (19th place, 2150 points) flight back to Korea.Tie-22nd1850Probably not.3350The same chance that Azubu is a legitimate business.Champions rise and fall. Teams form and disband. Strategies are discovered and discarded. And Symbol, he will always be there.Since 2012, Symbol has been perhaps the most consistent player in the entire StarCraft 2 scene. He has reached the Ro16 of Code S five times in a row, placed high in numerous international tournaments, and has been a solid ace in team competitions. He was the Kong before JaeKong, finishing second place inmajor tournaments. After placing second in the last WoL finals ever, Symbol went on to transition smoothly into HotS, while the champion RorO fell into obscurity.Unfortunately for Symbol, the WCS system rewards big runs over consistency. Symbol's results in WCS Korea this season were top 4, top 8, and top 32—not enough to have a good shot at the World Finals. Even worse, he was unable to compete in any foreign tournaments at all in 2013 so far, after taking three second place finishes in 2012's international competitions.Symbol has picked the worst time and place to start his international campaign for 2013, with Bucharest being hit with a sudden onslaught of formidable Koreans. It's also dubious as to whether or not Symbol can even recreate his foreign tournament form from 2012. There's no denying he was a big beneficiary of the BL-infestor style, with which he became one of the best Zergs in the entire world. While Symbol is still rather good in HotS, there's no doubt he's been knocked down several notches. He's been successful with plenty of other strategies such as Nydus all-ins and every variety of roach-bane bust, but none of them have the reliability of the good ol' BL-Infestor.Even if Symbolrepeat his 2012 results and get second place at both DH and IEM, it may not be enough. He must do as Startale before him when they washed away the Kong Curse: He has to win, and win twice.Tie-22nd1850Maybe, if he gets enough points at DreamHack to have a legit shot at the World Finals.3350The same chance that Jessica will make a phone call to cheer him on.Although Alicia was able to pick up an impressive three international silver medals on SlayerS in 2012, he became largely anonymous after the team's messy break-up. After staying almost entirely off the progaming radar, Alicia showed that he had been keeping up a high level of play on Axiom when the new WCS system was introduced, as he placed top eight in the WCS Season 1 Finals and third at ASUS ROG Summer (which did not award WCS points for whatever reason).Alicia's WCS America Season 2 was disappointing as he was eliminated in the Ro16 of the Premier League, but given his skill-level it seemed like he would be able to grind out enough points in Season 3 to barely make it to Blizzcon. However, things took a very sharp turn for the worst, and he suffered a shock elimination in the Challenger League. Against both HerO and MajOr he was just one win away from re-qualifying for Premier, but ended up blowing his chances of qualification and was left with a comical 25 points earned in Season 3.Alicia is tied in points with Symbol at present, and his situation is similar as well: Second place finishes aren't going to cut it anymore. One advantage he does have over Symbol would be his team. This is a purely subjective read, but it seems more likely that Axiom would fly Alicia over to IEM New York than Azubu would do the same for Symbol should DreamHack Bucharest pan out favorably.24th1750Dunno.3250The chance of Undead beating an Orc who only gets claw drops.The Grubby line is dead and Grubby killed it. A long time ago, Grubby was a beacon of consistency. He had just enough skill where you could say he had a reasonable chance to upset a decent Korean. But that was the distant past, and Grubby has continued to travel on an upward trajectory. He broke the line and took second at his first major tournament at IEM Singapore, where he defeated MC in a dramatic series. He made it to the top 4 in WCS EU last season by eliminating Mvp in the Ro16, and nearly defeated the eventual champion in duckdeok.Grubby has tenacity. Grubby has heart. On his best days it seems like he could beat anyone.Except, well, this tournament is the hardest one Grubby has ever, ever played in. It's one thing to do well at tournaments with a handful of slightly past their prime Koreans. It's another to defeat a throng of elite Koreans who need those points just as much as he does. Even worse, some of the best players at the tournament are Terran. Grubby was brutally destroyed by Polt and Bomber at the past Season 2 finals, and his chances against players like INnoVation, Flash, TaeJa, or MMA seem slimmer than the 120 Hertz XL2320T BenQ™ gaming monitor. 28th1600Maybe, if he gets enough points at DreamHack to have a legit shot at the World Finals.3100The same chance that SC2 will overtake LoL in Korea.Ryung's chances of qualifying are so low, we might as well go off topic.For Ryung this is his best chance in a long time. Not to win DH, not to get to Blizzcon, but to finally kill all of the best Terrans in the world and get his respect and adoration he deserves. Yes, his TvP wavers from good to average on most days. Yes, his TvZ has been a mess in the last month as he has been beaten soundly by a multitude of Zergs. But TvT has been and will always be where Ryung shines the most. And for Ryung, all of the targets he could possibly want have all gathered here.First on the list is MMA, a friendly rival Ryung has spent most of his career being overshadowed by. We assume that any argument between the two is solved by MMA pulling his two GSL trophies out of the display case and giving them a nice polish. Second on the list is Flash. Ryung was slowly building a rivalry with The Player Called God before the separation of WCS regions saw them part ways. After the two played some outstanding games against each other in WoL, a clash in HotS is a tantalizing prospect.And the last player is Innovation. When Acer-Axiom first teamed up in GSTL, Ryung had a brief moment of triumph over MMA by becoming the de facto ace of the combined team. He was the player they relied on most to get them through tough spots, and he delivered under pressure. Unfortunately, that glory was short lived as INnoVation has forcefully wrested that spot away. Even worse, INnoVation even aided Ryung's arch-rival MMA, who said his improved TvP was a result of sitting next to INnoVation in the practice room. If Ryung wants that number one spot once more, he's going to have dismantle the robot Terran.30th1450Probably not2950The same chance that he'll get his back pay from mTw.It's crystal clear that DIMAGA's 4th place finish in WCS Europe Season 1 was the result of an incredible, improbable run, and not a predictor of his results to come in HotS. He's done little of note afterward, and it wasn't surprising to see him fall to the Challenger League this season. That's not to say he's become bad or anything, just unremarkable.However, that was pretty much the same position DIMAGA was in when he made his unlikely WCS Europe top-four run in the first place. The all-caps Zerg has those intangibles that make him stronger in clutch situations, and you underestimate him at your own risk.That said, he's still a foreigner going into the most Korean packed DreamHack in historyWhile it may all seem impossible, the desperate nature of the situation coupled with the absolute need to win has created miracles before. The GSL started off with a miracle, as Fruitdealer made an incredible run. Mvp has won multiple championships with wrists held together by chewing gum and scotch tape. Qxc all-killed Incredible Miracle on their home turf at the height of their power. And even Inca once played a game without DTs and won.