India's intelligence agencies suspect that a group named Jaishul Adil is responsible for the kidnapping of Indian businessman Kulbhushan Yadav from the Iran-Pakistan border. Jaishul Adil is an extremist Sunni radical group, which is headed by Salahuddin Farooqui. This Salafist-jihadist group owes its allegiance to the Al Qaeda and is reported to have around 500 fighters. Jaishul Adil has in the past killed Shia pilgrims from Iran and has been accused of targeting Iranian border guards along the country's border with Pakistan's Balochistan province. Jaishul Adil has been designated as a terrorist organisation by Iran.

A high-level assessment compiled by India's intelligence agencies has found multiple inconsistencies with the alleged spy video released by Pakistan. These glaring loopholes raise very serious doubts about the veracity of the claims being made by the Pakistan army to implicate India in fomenting a sectarian insurgency in Balochistan.

A forensics examination of the video conducted by India's intelligence agencies shows that the 'spy video' has been heavily edited and the audio has been spliced in several places. At different points, Kulbhushan's facial expressions do not match with what is being said in the voice over. A critical question is if Pakistan has a genuine confession by an Indian agent then why has a heavily edited version of the video been put out and not the original tape. Is an attempt being made to show Yadav as having said things he never did.

Pakistani media reported that Yadav was picked up on March 3, whereas his arrest was announced only on March 24. India's intelligence agencies say a three-week gap between Yadav's detention and arrest raises serious doubts about whether coercive, third degree techniques were used on Yadav to extract a statement dictated by the Pakistani agencies.

One of the big loopholes in Pakistan's allegations is the claim that Kulbhushan was carrying an Indian passport in the name of Mumbai resident Hussain Mubarak Patel. India's intelligence czars argue that no specially trained field agent can be so silly so as to carry a passport which links him back to his native country if he is entering hostile territory. If Yadav was a RAW agent, would it not have been very easy for him to carry Pakistani identity papers instead of running the risk of getting caught with an Indian passport. Sources say this claim by Pakistan is by itself proof of the fact that Yadav was an Indian businessman who was transacting bonafide business activities in Iran's Chabahar rather than an undercover agent.

The Home Minister of Pakistan's Balochistan province, Sarfaraz Bugti, first announced that Yadav was picked up from Chaman. But in the Pakistan army's press conference on Tuesday, the Director General of the Inter Services Public Relations General Asim Bajwa, announced that Yadav was picked up from Saravan. Now, Chaman is the eastern most extremity of Balochistan and is near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Whereas, Saravan is south-east of Zahidan and is near the Pakistan-Iran border. Chaman is 873 kilometres from Saravan by road. This is a major inconsistency in the claim made by Pakistan's agencies.

India's intelligence agencies believe that the release of the 'spy video' is a consequence of the internal politics of Pakistan. The Pakistan army is not happy with the peace overtures made by the Nawaz Sharif government and the arrest of an Indian national seems to be an attempt on the part of Pakistan's military establishment to restrict Sharif's ability to walk down the road of peace with PM Narendra Modi. For the first time after the recent Pathankot attack, Pakistan's civilian government admitted that the terrorists came from Pakistan. A joint investigation team from Pakistan was sent to India to probe the terror attack. Indian agencies believe that the ISI has been very unhappy with the concessions made by the civilian government and the spy tape is an attempt to shrink the space for peace available to Sharif.

The assessment compiled by India's intelligence agencies also suggests that the Pakistan army has been extremely wary of India's involvement in the Chabahar port project in Iran. India has so far helped conduct a feasibility study to develop the port area and has committed to helping Tehran develop the port in future. Pakistan sees the Chabahar port as a direct threat to the ambitious Gwadar port project in Balochistan, which is being developed in close association with Beijing as part of the China-Pakistan economic corridor. Indian agencies believe that Pakistan is trying to kill the Chabahar project by driving a wedge between Delhi and Tehran.

The Indian assessment ends by stating that the insurgency in Balochistan is deep rooted and enjoys widespread public support. And it is foolhardy to think that an individual like an obscure Indian businessman in Iran can influence the course of events in Balochistan.

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