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Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

ESPN Stat Projections: 3,527 passing yards; 15 TDs, 9 interceptions; 625 rushing yards, 3 TDs

Here’s the $64,000 question for both your fantasy team and the 49ers—will Kaepernick’s two-year slide reverse itself, or is he on a pathway to bottoming out entirely? Your answer to that question will describe when, how and if you should consider drafting him.

Put aside the normal camp talk that he’s looking more refined and showing better touch, as Matt Maiocco reports. Those stories can be found for nearly any player in the league—if you take those reports at face value, nearly every player in the league is better this year than they were last year, and every rookie is going to break out. It’s the time for massive optimism everywhere, and those reports should be taken with massive grains of salt.

Here is something to keep in mind, though. If you believe the 49ers, as a unit, are going to be worse than they were in Jim Harbaugh’s best years, that means they’ll be trailing more. If they’re trailing more, they’ll need to pass more. With that in mind, I think ESPN’s projection of Kaepernick’s yardage is about right, but you can bump the touchdowns and interceptions up more—they’ll have to go for some more high-risk, high-reward plays to stay competitive.

Then, you add in Kaepernick’s rushing. Kaepernick’s one rushing touchdown from last year almost has to be a fluke; quarterbacks with his rushing attempts and yardage generally put up more than that. If we’re talking about passing alone, Kaepernick shouldn’t start for your fantasy team, but, like Russell Wilson and Cam Newton, Kaepernick’s rushing ability makes him significantly more viable.

Here’s my bottom line—you can probably get Kaepernick cheap. His ADP at the moment is in the 140s, but I don’t think there’s 140 fantasy players better than him in most formats. He’s a starter—albeit a bad one—for me in deeper leagues, but you don’t need to spend starter-type draft picks on him.

You could spend time pumping up all your other positions, and take Kaepernick and, say, Robert Griffin late and have a high-risk, high-reward quarterback duo boosted by the top running backs and receivers in your league. Or, you could spend a mid-round pick on someone like Ryan Tannehill and play the matchup game with him and Kaepernick, slotting in whoever has the easier opponent that weak.

I do think Kaepernick will bounce back, both in general and thanks to the team being trailing more in 2015, so he’s a steal if you get him in the double-digit rounds, which is where he’s being drafted right now. He’s being taken behind the suspended Tom Brady, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford and Carson Palmer at the moment. When you see those names starting to come off the board, grab Kaepernick; he’s the most underrated quarterback in fantasy football, in my opinion.

Pick Him: No earlier than the middle of your draft, but keep an eye out starting in Rounds 7 or 8 to see when a run of subpar quarterbacks are going.