1) United may be better off without Zlatan

So far this season Manchester United have played at home 14 times, and have already registered more draws (seven) than in any full season since 1991-92 – and that was played over 42 games. The principal reason for such mediocrity is the quality of their finishing, and in particular that of Zlatan Ibrahimovic who, for all his goals and general behaviour, has missed far too many simple chances for the main striker of a serious team. But he is suspended this weekend, meaning that United’s attack will be led by Marcus Rashford. Though he is without a league goal since September, he may well prove a trickier proposition for West Brom’s centre-backs – after all, Jonny Evans, absent when the teams met earlier in the season, policed Ibrahimovic superbly when he was close to his peak. But more than that, Rashford’s pace and movement are a constant worry for defenders, also giving greater scope to other attackers; Ibrahimovic, on the other hand, either scores or does nothing. Ridiculous thought it sounds, United might just be more effective without him. DH

2) Probert gets an unwelcome Watford return

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Welcome back, Lee Probert. It’s been a quiet couple of years for the man who refereed the 2014 FA Cup final. Since that match, the pinnacle of English officiating, he has taken charge of just seven top-flight games: in 2014-15 a leg injury kept him out until December, and he returned to top-flight action only in April. He missed last season altogether, again because of injury, but though he has been blowing his whistle since August this is the first time that he has been glimpsed on a Premier League pitch since May 2015 (though he was fourth official when Chelsea beat Stoke a couple of weeks back). He has warmed up by flourishing his cards with rare abandon: his last two games, both in the Championship, featured a combined 10 yellows and two reds. He has previous with Watford, who will not readily forget the ludicrous and swiftly rescinded red card he showed to Gabriele Angella after 28 seconds of a match at Bournemouth in January 2015 that the home side went on to win 2-0 (the Cherries went on to pip the Hornets to the Championship title that season by a single point). The only Watford game he has refereed since was the final one of that same season, which they needed to win to take the title. He refused them an apparently clear penalty, and then allowed Sheffield Wednesday to score a stoppage-time equaliser despite an offside in the build-up. Sunderland have fewer bad memories of Probert’s decision-making; curiously this is the fourth time he will have officiated them since Christmas Day 2013, and the other three matches were all against Everton. SB

3) Everton have to back themselves

Ronald Koeman seems to have found a formula that works – of Everton’s last 10 games, seven have been won, two drawn and one lost. But that one loss came against Tottenham, a game for which Koeman adjusted the 4-3-3 formation that was working nicely in order to bring in a third defensive midfielder, Gareth Barry, for a winger, Ademola Lookman. Whether pragmatism or cowardice, his team did not turn up that afternoon and were beaten far more badly than a final score of 3-2 suggests. When Liverpool host Everton, Koeman’s side must go out fortified with the confidence of a manager who trusts them, believing themselves good enough to impose their game on the opposition. And if they do, they have a decent chance of winning. Liverpool will be without Adam Lallana, whose engine and vision are so crucial to how they play. On top of that, Philippe Coutinho and Roberto Firmino both played 90 minutes on Tuesday night before schlepping back from Brazil; they will not necessarily be at their freshest on Saturday lunchtime. Everton’s good form has been fired by energy and enterprise, not patience and predictability; it is pointless tampering with that. DH



Facebook Twitter Pinterest Gareth Barry has made an immediate impact in a three-man midfield. Photograph: Jan Kruger/Getty Images

4) A lot of love for hitherto unloveable Middlesbrough

In a seismic match for every side struggling to avoid the drop in so far as the outcome may well have a major say on which three teams go down, Swansea City appear to have the deck firmly stacked in their favour by virtue of home advantage. Middlesbrough haven’t won any of their past 13 matches away from home and and have failed to trouble the scoreboard operator in six of their most recent seven excursions from the Riverside. Such stats hardly inspire confidence in a team taking on hosts who have won three in a row at home. Already seven points adrift of the fourth-from-bottom Swans, Sunderland would leapfrog Boro with victory against Watford on Saturday but would surely have no objections to being reconsigned to 20th place the following day if it meant Swansea remained in the mire. Supporters of Hull will also be hoping for a Boro win, to boost their own chances of survival. BG

5) City’s fantastic five pose main threat

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Alexis Sánchez played brilliantly for Chile on Wednesday night, scoring a superb free-kick and crafting two excellent opportunities that were spurned by Arturo Vidal. And because he is exempt from the biological laws which govern fatigue in all other humans, there is no reason why he cannot perform equally well against Manchester City, whose defence will be dodgy however avant-garde its configuration. The question for Arsenal is how they combat City’s front five and, in particular, David Silva, Leroy Sané and Raheem Sterling, who have been in spectacular form of late. Because Sánchez can operate as a one-man forward line, perhaps Arsenal might string five across midfield, crowding Silva and giving their full-backs support against what is sure to be an onslaught. Then, they can break at pace, pitting their strongest aspect against City’s weakest. DH

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Leroy Sané, one of City’s deadly attacking five. Photograph: Andrew Yates/Reuters

6) Some added creativity in Chelsea’s midfield

Having won three Premier League matches in a row without conceding a goal, Crystal Palace’s new found mettle will face a stern test as they visit Stamford Bridge to take on the league leaders. Eden Hazard and Diego Costa are both expected to start for Chelsea despite fitness concerns and in the face of Crystal Palace’s new-found defensive obduracy, Antonio Conte’s only selection dilemma is likely to centre around who from Nemanja Matic and Cesc Fàbregas to start alongside N’Golo Kanté in midfield. With Sam Allardyce likely to be more than delighted with a point, this might be an ideal match for the Spaniard to start. Despite having played 1,306 minutes fewer than Matic in the Premier League this season he has created 32 scoring chances to his team-mate’s 21. In a match where Crystal Palace look likely to sit back and hope to pilfer a goal on the break, his creativity could prove key to unlocking a defence brimming with uncharacteristic confidence. BG

7) Cherries hope to exploit Saints’ rustiness

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After a run of one win and seven defeats in 11 league games, back-to-back home victories against West Ham and Swansea have driven the relegation wolf from Bournemouth’s door, and given a relatively benign run-in they should not feel its icy breath on their necks again this season. First, though, comes a short run of troublesome fixtures, with a visit to Southampton followed by encounters with Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham, with only Antonio Conte’s champions-elect at home. The Cherries have already beaten Liverpool and taken a point off Spurs this season, but omens are less encouraging for their short trip to St Mary’s: they have never won an away match in Southampton, and have lost their last three by the same scoreline, 2-0 (clearly creatures of habit, the Saints have also won three of their last five games in Bournemouth, including their most recent in December, 3-1).

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Bournemouth manager Eddie Howe. Photograph: Warren Little/Getty Images

Only Hull and Swansea have conceded more goals away from home than the Cherries, but they will probably be aided by not having to face the injured Manolo Gabbiadini and by the home side’s unaccustomed ring-rustiness: with their Europa League campaign in full flow they played six times in October, six times in November, seven times in December and then nine times in January, but there were only three matches in February and two in March, and in all they have turned out just three times in the last 48 days. Bournemouth are the division’s highest penalty-earners this season with nine, three times as many as Southampton have been awarded, a difference which is not so much short-term anomaly as long-term trend: in the five years since the start of 2012-13, the season in which Eddie Howe returned to the south coast, Bournemouth have been given 51 penalties, and Southampton just 16 (Howe’s charges are pretty much unrivalled at spot-kick earning: for example in the same period Manchester City have had 36, Liverpool 33, Chelsea 31 and Manchester United, once famed as the nation’s great penalty-earners but now with just five in the last two seasons combined, a meagre 22). SB

8) Ndidi crucial to Leicester revival

Craig Shakespeare has taken much of the credit for Leicester’s revival, Jamie Vardy and Kasper Schmeichel likewise, and rightly so; they are its principal architects. Shakespeare restored confidence by keeping things simple, Vardy rediscovered the rabidity which so discomfits defenders, and Schmeichel simply continued being brilliant. But another player who has been hugely influential – and to whom Stoke must pay close attention on Saturday – is Wilfred Ndidi, whose power, technique and intelligence has given the team midfield stability. And Ndidi has also been a key cog in Leicester’s improved attacking, his positive passing providing Vardy and Riyad Mahrez with the service that has been denied them for the majority of this season. At 20 years old, Ndidi is already a good player; if he continues improving, he might just become a special player. DH

9) Burnley enjoying home comforts



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Five of Burnley’s last six league games have been away, including all the last four, and 47 days have passed since they last played a league match at Turf Moor, where their performances have earned the division’s sixth-best home record, they have won 91% of their 32 points and have lost only to Manchester City, Arsenal and, on the opening day of the season when they weren’t really ready, Swansea. Improbably, Burnley’s home form continues to improve: since the visit of City in November there have been five wins and a draw in six matches, a record that over the same period is bettered only by Chelsea and Spurs, who are both running at 100%. The identity of Tottenham’s attacking spearhead is the main tactical question, with Harry Kane injured. Son Heung-min scored a hat-trick in the FA Cup against Millwall when pushed forward in the game when Keane suffered his ankle ligament injury but then disappointed against Southampton, while Vincent Janssen has disappointed for the great majority of the season and has a chest infection that will force him to undergo a late fitness test. With Chelsea unlikely to slip up at home to Crystal Palace, Spurs almost certainly need to win this if they are to keep up their token challenge for the title, but Burnley are meeting them at an opportune moment and will feel optimistic of adding another big name to the list of those who have left Turf Moor disappointed. SB

10) Revenge for Hull’s London Stadium mugging



Considering how few people gave them a chance of staying up before a ball had been kicked this season, Hull City have done well to remain in with a half-decent chance of survival as we approach the business end of the season. They will be heartened by news that Winston Reid, Michail Antonio and Pedro Obiang will be missing through injury from a West Ham side that has failed to win any of its past five matches and has lost three on the spin. Hull’s remarkable record of being unbeaten at home in all competitions since Boxing Day is another reason for their supporters to be cheerful. In their match at the London Stadium in December, Hull were the better side and spurned no end of chances before being mugged by a contentious penalty scored by Mark Noble and cannot afford such profligacy at a time when three points would provide the perfect platform ahead of another home game against Middlesbrough in what could prove a season-defining week. The return of Robert Snodgrass to his old stomping ground just two months after his departure should also make for an interesting sub-plot, although his presence is unlikely to prove a distraction for a struggling team focussed enough to have hoovered up 11 points from nine Premier League games under their impressive young manager Marco Silva. BG