In 2014, New Brunswick found out what happens when you merge a Progressive Conservative anglophone riding with a Liberal francophone riding: Liberal Bernard LeBlanc as MLA.

But the race in Memramcook-Tantramar this year may be harder to predict than 2014 — a language-based court challenge notwithstanding — considering the "wind in the sails" of Green Party candidate Megan Mitton, says Mount Allison University political science professor Geoff Martin.

"She has gotten very good crowds out on her events, she has raised a lot of money," he said.

Stretching from Murray Corner to Port Elgin and down to Sackville, Dorchester, and including parts of Dieppe, Memramcook-Tantramar encompasses demographics that cross language, socioeconomic status and political priorities.

There are rural areas, fishing villages and suburbs. LeBlanc, who is running for re-election, says that for some people, the priority is the state of the roads they drive on, while for Mount Allison University students and professors in Sackville, it may be bigger-picture issues like the environment.

Sackville versus the rest

According to Martin, Sackville's voice could drown out the rest of Tantramar.

That's because Sackville, a town of 5,300, includes the university, the headquarters of the Canadian Wildlife Service, the hospital and a municipal government — and it has a "dissenter" history.

"Historically, there was a strong NDP organization in Sackville, but that seems to have withered somewhat, and some of that dissenting [voice] has gone to the Green Party," Martin said.

Megan Mitton is the Green Party candidate for Memramcook-Tantramar. (Megan Mitton/Submitted)

"But it's not clear to me how widespread that is outside of Sackville."

He said the Sackville influence in 1982 elected NDP Bob Hall, sending a New Democrat to the New Brunswick legislature for the first time.

Liberals versus Greens?

During the campaign for the Sept. 24 election, Green Party Leader David Coon visited the riding several times, once with Federal Green Party Leader Elizabeth May. On Friday, science broadcaster David Suzuki is scheduled to pay the riding a visit.

Coon called Memramcook-Tantramar a "significant" riding for the party, and it's one of a few he finds promising.

"I've been trying to support many of the candidates in the province," he said.

Green candidate Mitton, a Sackville town councillor, received 15 per cent of the vote last election. It was her first campaign, she said, and this time it's a "whole other level," because of the support that she's getting.

She said the most frequent issue she's heard door to door is health care.

"One of the priorities to me and something that's close to my heart is health care," she said. "My dad was sick the last few years and I got to see how there are some pretty big gaps in our health-care system."

LeBlanc said he's made a good name for himself in the last 12 years that he's been in politics. He became a public servant after graduating from the University of Moncton and said he has been an active member of the legislature.

LeBlanc was the MLA for Memramcook before it was joined with Tantramar, and he won 45 per cent of the vote in 2014.

Bernard LeBlanc is the Liberal incumbent candidate for Memramcook-Tantramar. (Hadeel Ibrahim/CBC)

At the time the Acadian Society was considering filing a court challenge because some francophone communities believed the merger of the Village of Memramcook with Tantramar could diminish their political influence.

"My greatest satisfaction is I think I've met a lot of my constituents and I've listened a lot to their concerns," LeBlanc said. "What they're telling us also is the protection of the health care. ... There are a lot of seniors."

In 2014 LeBlanc beat PC candidate Michael Olscamp by almost 1,500 votes. This election, the PC candidate is Etienne Gaudet, a retired military police member who is stepping into politics for the first time.

PC candidate Etienne Gaudet campaigns with former Sackville mayor Pat Estabrooks. (Anna Mann/Submitted)

All three candidates were born and raised in the area.

Gaudet said he left the area for work and came back recently. During the campaign, he's been hearing the same message relayed in different ways, whether it's by people on a fixed incomes or from a two-income household. They all want a stable economy.

"I'm struck and impressed and amazed how many similarities come out, how so much more alike we are rather than different, and that has been very clear to me going house to house in all areas in this province," he said.

"The few differences that we have, be they language or the urban-rural divide, are very very small compared to the many things that we have that are similar."

Strategic voting

Martin said he's not sure if all the "quiet Liberal and Conservative voters" will say yes to Mitton this election. PC Leader Blaine Higgs has said if people vote for anyone but him, Liberal Leader Brian Gallant will get elected.

The Liberals haven't used this type of messaging yet, Martin said, but it may happen before election day on Monday.

"In the last week of the campaign, if the leaders basically say, 'Look, this is going to come down to who you want to be premier and particularly if the polls is narrow," he said.

"But sometime the dissenters, they don't need to be on the side of the government. They don't need to decide who's going to be premier. … It's going to be interesting to see how close is this."

The NDP candidate in the riding is Hélène Boudreau, who's been a private and public-sector nurse and a city councillor in Dieppe. She ran for the NDP in the 2014 election as well.

No one is running for the People's Alliance.