Who helped who most — Rochester or Buffalo — is fodder for watercooler debate as the region awaits Amazon's decision on a joint proposal to land the company's second North American headquarters.

But there really isn't any question.

"Rochester is kind of carrying the weight more than Buffalo," said Adam Kamins, senior economist at Moody's Analytics, a unit of Moody's Corp.

Amazon announced plans last month to build a second headquarters, a $5 billion project that could include as many as 50,000 jobs. The company put out a public request for proposals, drawing interest from communities across the state and nation. Those proposals are due next week. On Thursday, Rochester and Buffalo officials said they would submit a single application, together.

The Flower City ranks fourth among metro areas where Amazon should go, according to a report from Moody's also out Thursday. The ranking is based on Amazon's stated preferences and relevant economic factors. While both metros scored highly in affordability — a significant factor for cost-conscious Amazon — Rochester is the stronger of the two in quality of life and skilled workforce.

Buffalo, ranked 21st overall by Moody's, becomes a drag (numerically speaking).

"There are other ways to think about this, though," Kamins said, noting that perhaps the biggest disadvantage facing Rochester is demographics. "Combine it with Buffalo and the thought of filling 50,000 jobs seems a little less daunting."

The joint proposal will include a menu of potential sites in each urban center, officials said, as well as what local and state financial incentives are possible. It will highlight strengths, also including area universities and research in applicable fields such as packaging here in Rochester, existing supply chain companies and proximity to other markets.

"It's a fluid, iterative process," said Thomas Kucharski, president and CEO of Invest Buffalo Niagara, hedging on reports of there being two preferred sites in both Erie and Monroe counties. "I think we are going to have a very competitive proposal that will show connectivity between final sites."

There is, however, no guarantee that Amazon would locate in both cities if the regional application is selected: "That is not our choice," Kucharski said.

Still, "I really don't see a scenario (if successful) where there isn't some activity here in Rochester," Matt Hurlbutt, interim president for Greater Rochester Enterprise, the economic development agency spearheading the pitch here.

By the numbers

Moody's ranking is based on five categories: business environment, human capital, cost, quality of life and transportation.

Austin, Texas, topped the list, following by Atlanta and Philadelphia. Among the Top 10, Rochester is by far the smallest, and drew the most questions when the rankings were presented internally at Moody's, Kamins said.

If geography is factored in, then Philadelphia moves into first. By Moody's measure, Seattle — where Amazon is currently based — would rank as the eighth best location.

Buffalo rated best in terms of cost, notably for low housing prices. If cost is weighted more than other categories, Rochester rises to first.

"Look at Amazon's values. Frugality is one," said Robert Duffy, president and CEO of the Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce.

The universities, an educated workforce and availability of large, commercial lots are other noted positives. And yet: "Rochester is rightfully an extreme long shot," according to Moody's, citing the large workforce requirements (jobs would be filled over 15 years, with average wages topping $100,000) and the area's population loss, long winters and lack of direct flights to Seattle.

That hasn't dissuaded those working on the proposal, also including the city and county, VisitRochester, Genesee Transportation Council, Rochester Downtown Development Corp., and various tech companies.

"People are are going to be critical, saying, 'Don't waste your time,'" said Vinnie Esposito, the Finger Lakes regional director for Empire State Development. But the area has a unique pitch. "It's not just a story of civic pride and feeling good about ourselves. ... It's about having the capacity and ability to ramp up.

"We have the bones to grow."

'Get into the game'

Details of the proposal have not, and will not, be released, given the competitive nature of the process, officials said.

"This is just the very beginning. .... This is to get into the game," Hurlbutt said.

Other regions also are expected to submit proposals but state incentives will be the same for all — presumably giving upstate a dollar-for-dollar advantage, Duffy said. He expects those incentives also would extend to the region, to encourage investment by Amazon or other supporting businesses.

There are other aspects to all of this. Duffy notes that Amazon "will take talent from a lot of other companies," creating a need to backfill locally while attracting job seekers to the area. And just the act of applying, and the attention, signals that Western New York is "open for business," officials said.

"We aren't putting ourselves out there saying, 'Amazon, help us,'" said Anne Kress, president of Monroe Community College. "We're saying, 'We can help you.'"

As for potential site locations in Rochester, Eastman Kodak Co. is a clear option, given its abundance of space. And there has been discussion of the Inner Loop north being in play, with the city looking to expand on the fill project on the easternmost segment.

Questions about transit options such as commuter rail or a shuttle have been discussed, officials said, and would need refinement if the local application moves forward.

The idea in linking the two regions is to capitalize on the attributes of both, officials say, double the population and potential workforce (to Moody's point) and leverage strengths from Rochester Institute of Technology and the University of Rochester to the University at Buffalo, the Flower City's history in innovation, and the Queen City's binational, border position.

"At the same time we were calling GRE, GRE was calling us," Kucharski said.

While separated by an hour's drive on the Thruway, that is not unlike the commute in large cities like Boston or Los Angeles. And while the combined area of 17 counties encompassing western New York totals some 11,800 square miles, that is still less than the Los Angeles metro area.

Amazon employees have been calling those assembling the application, officials said, providing insights — pro and con — about the company. In a statement, RIT President David Munson noted some of the connections, as more than 300 alumni currently work for the company and 200 students have previously worked or done co-ops with the firm.

BDSHARP@Gannett.com