Anyone can be shot in NYC, and anyone can be struck by lighting in NYC – but what are the odds?

Today Police in New York City say at least four people have been shot near the Empire State Building, and according to reports the suspect is dead along with a bystander. You may feel that stuff like this is always happening in NYC, which it is – but it happens everywhere else as well. It just happens to be that NYC is the most popular place in the country and anything and everything that happens there hits the media almost immediately. I am not saying it is a big deal, but if this happened in Alabama, it probably wouldn’t have got all this hype.

Now I will break down the odds of a single person being shot in NYC.

New York City is home to more than 8 million people, accounting for about 40% of the population of New York State and a similar percentage of the New York metropolitan area, home to about 20 million. Over the last decade the city has been growing faster than the region.

So yea, there are a A LOT of people in NYC every single day. Whether it be residents, tourists, visitors or illegal immigrant, Manhattan is always packed.

So we will use the number 8,000,000 for the population in NYC.

Now, how many people get shot per year in NYC?

In 2010, 1,451 people were shot (dead or survived) and in 2011, 1,484 people were shot (dead or survived). These are very large numbers, compared to the population and time period (365 days). Yes, I know, shootings can happen any time, and there can be multiple victims at once, but we are just using assumptions and estimates.

NYC does have the largest population, but they also have the strictest gun laws which you have to take into consideration (not saying that everyone follows these laws). You also have to factor in risk. Everyone has a different risk factor of getting shot depending on where they live, where they work and what they are involved in. This estimate is for the average New Yorker.

So if I were to take the average of 2010 and 2011 total shootings, it would be 1467.5 shootings per year. Now to break it down even further, 4 people are shot each day on average (since 2010): 1467.5/365 = 4.02 (4 people were shot today at the Empire State Building).

4 out of 8,000,000 people get shot each day in New York City.

This makes the odds of you getting shot :

NYC Population : 8,000,000

Shootings per year : 1467.5

Odds = 1 : 5,451 on average of being shot in NYC in any given year