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TORY scare tactics about the SNP’s general election surge were key to David Cameron getting back into Downing Street, research shows.

Analysis by pollsters Survation has detected a crucial late swing to the Conservatives as voters in England became increasingly worried about a Labour government needing the support of the Scottish Nationalists to survive.

The company recontacted more than 1700 people they polled prior to the vote to check how they actually cast their ballot on May 7.

And the results suggest a large number of UKIP and Lib Dem supporters in England eventually ended up backing the Tories in order to stop Alex Salmond having any influence on the running of the UK.

Here's how supporters of each party voted in England:

How UKIP Supporters Voted Survation How Lib Dem Supporters Voted Survation How Labour Supporters Voted Survation How Tory Supporters Voted Survation

Labour peer George Foulkes said the research showed the SNP surge had been a “gift” for the Tories.

Cameron made the threat of a Labour government having to make concessions to the SNP a central part of this election strategy.

The Tories issued a campaign poster showing Ed Miliband in Alex Salmond’s pocket and spent vast sums of money sending election leaflets to voters in marginal English seats warning of the dangers of the SNP.

Survation undertook the new survey for their submission to an independent inquiry into why the pre-election polls failed to accurately predict the Conservatives would win a majority.

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SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon had categorically ruled out working with the Tories – meaning a deal between Labour and the SNP looked to be the most likely outcome of the vote.

Survation chief executive Damian Lyons Lowe said he had uncovered “compelling evidence” that the threat of the Nationalists drove many English voters to back the Conservatives in the final days of the campaign.

He told the Record: “We know that people were concerned about the SNP.

“Liberal Democrat and UKIP voters were particularly strong in their view that an SNP-supported Labour government would be ‘illegitimate’.

“We believe a significant section of the public were convinced by the polls predicting a hung parliament and so worried about such an outcome that they changed their voting preference to stop it from happening.

“This means that the polls may have been as much a cause of voter behaviour as a measure of it.

“Clearly, such large discrepancies in the polls are unlikely to be explained by just one factor.

“However, our research suggests that the late swing of voters to the Conservatives and the low turnout among those intending to vote for other parties account for a large part of it.”

The recontact poll found the Tories had strong voter retention of 88 per cent, with very few switching to a different party in the final days of the campaign. Meanwhile, Labour, Lib Dem and UKIP supporters were much more likely to change their vote – mostly to the Tories – or not to vote at all.

(Image: Getty/Rob Stothard)

UKIP voter retention was only 83 per cent, with a whopping eight per cent of their supporters returning to the Conservatives in the final days.

Lord Foulkes, who wants to see polling companies regulated by law, described the findings as a “brilliant piece of research that shows that the gut instinct of many people about what happened in the general election was right”.

He added: “This welcome research shows that many voters turned to the Tories in order to stop the SNP from having any control over the UK government.

“This is what I mean when I say that the SNP were a gift for the Tories.

“It was not only all the Labour seats they took in Scotland, but also the way they presented the Tories with a campaign strategy that led to them making massive gains in England, particularly in seats previously held by the Lib Dems.

“David Cameron has a lot to thank the SNP for.”

But SNP business convener Derek Mackay said Labour only had themselves to blame for their defeat.

He explained: “When the Tories attacked the idea of a Labour/SNP agreement, Labour should have embraced it as a progressive alternative to austerity and pointed out that the Tories were effectively conceding the election.

“Instead, Labour accepted the Tory argument, refused to have anything to

do with the SNP and stood up the Tory argument for them.

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“In contrast, the SNP pledged to make Scotland’s voice heard at Westminster – and that is exactly what our 56 MPs have done every day since.”

Scottish Conservative MSP Alex Johnstone said: “It was clear from the outset both the SNP and Labour were keen to do a deal, with Nicola Sturgeon even saying so in public.

“That would have spelled disaster for the constitution and disaster for the economy, and the voters realised this.”

The use of online polling, the way the raw data is weighted and people not being willing to admit they were planning to vote Tory have also been blamed for the errors in the polls.

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