

Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney continues to hold a modest lead in South Carolina’s Republican primary for President. He’s at 29% to 24% for Newt Gingrich, 15% for Ron Paul, 14% for Rick Santorum, 6% for Rick Perry, 5% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% for Buddy Roemer.

Things haven’t changed too much at the top in the last week. Romney is down 1 point from his pre-New Hampshire standing, while Gingrich has gained a point. There’s more movement in the middle. Paul has gained 6 points to move into 3rd place, while Santorum has dropped by 5 points. Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman have each picked up a single point and remain in 5th and 6th place respectively.

Why is Romney winning South Carolina? Voters there are overwhelmingly focused on the economy this year and that’s working to his advantage. 39% say jobs and the economy are their top issue. Asked who they trust most on economic issues 35% pick Romney to 25% for Gingrich, 16% for Paul, and 10 for Santorum. And despite the attacks on it this week Romney’s business background is an asset for him. 58% have a

favorable opinion of his record in business to just 27% with a negative view of it.

For all that there are some signs that there could be trouble ahead for Romney: His net favorability is down 7 points in the last week from +31 (60/29) to +24 (57/33). Gingrich on the other hand has actually seen some improvement from +10 (49/39) to +14 (51/37). Overall 58% of primary voters don’t want Romney to be the nominee, compared to only 34% who want him to be. If those folks coalesced behind Gingrich in any sort of meaningful way, Newt would be the favorite in the state.

“Mitt Romney’s still the favorite in South Carolina,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Supporters of Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, and Rick Perry would have to move toward Newt Gingrich in the final week to change that.”

PPP surveyed 803 likely Republican primary voters from January 11th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight

bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary

or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?

Republican primary………………………………….100%

Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%

Q2 If the Republican candidates for President

were Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul,

Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and

Buddy Roemer, who would you vote for?

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 24%

Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 5%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 15%

Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 6%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 29%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 14%

Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%

Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 6%

Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to

that candidate, or might you end up supporting

someone else?

Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 65%

Might end up supporting someone else ………. 35%

Q4 Who would be your second choice for

President?

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 20%

Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 7%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%

Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 13%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 17%

Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%

Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 16%

Q5 Which of the Republican candidates do you

trust the most on social issues like abortion

and gay marriage?

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 19%

Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 5%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 14%

Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 9%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 21%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 23%

Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 0%

Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%

Q6 Which of the Republican candidates do you

trust the most on foreign policy issues?

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 41%

Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 7%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%

Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 6%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 22%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 8%

Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%

Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 5%

Q7 Which of the Republican candidates do you

trust the most on economic issues?

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 25%

Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 5%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 16%

Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 5%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 35%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 10%

Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 0%

Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 5%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Newt Gingrich?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Jon Huntsman?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Ron Paul?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Rick Perry?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Mitt Romney?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Mitt Romney’s record in business?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Rick Santorum?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q15 Generally speaking, would you like the

Republican nominee for President to be Mitt

Romney or someone else?

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 34%

Someone else…………………………………………. 58%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q16 If the Republican candidates for President

were just Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, who

would you vote for?

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 37%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q17 If the Republican candidates for President

were just Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who

would you vote for?

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 63%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 28%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q18 If the Republican candidates for President

were just Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who

would you vote for?

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 56%

Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 31%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q19 If the Republican candidates for President

were just Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum,

who would you vote for?

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 39%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q20 In 2008, did you vote in the Democratic or

Republican primary, or did you not vote in a

primary?

Democratic primary………………………………….. 6%

Republican primary………………………………….. 81%

Didn’t vote in a primary …………………………….. 12%

Q21 (Among Republican primary voters:) Did you

vote for John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Fred

Thompson, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rudy

Giuliani, or someone else?

John McCain…………………………………………… 49%

Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 22%

Fred Thompson ………………………………………. 11%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 8%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%

Rudy Giuliani ………………………………………….. 4%

Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 2%

Q22 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Tim Tebow?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 76%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q23 Do you think that interracial marriage should be

legal or illegal?

Legal……………………………………………………… 66%

Illegal …………………………………………………….. 20%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q24 Are you comfortable with the idea of a Mormon

being President, or not?

Comfortable ……………………………………………. 63%

Not comfortable ………………………………………. 23%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q25 Would you be willing or unwilling to vote for a

candidate who had supported an individual

mandate for health care at the state level, or

are you not sure?

Willing ……………………………………………………. 25%

Unwilling ………………………………………………… 34%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%

Q26 Who do you think has run the strongest

campaign in South Carolina?

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%

Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%

Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 8%

Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 23%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 6%

Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 31%

Q27 Which of the following things is most important

to you when deciding how to vote: jobs and the

economy, government spending and reducing

the debt, taxes, social issues like gay marriage

and abortion, illegal immigration, or foreign

policy and national security?

Jobs, the economy…………………………………… 39%

Government spending, reducing the debt ……. 34%

Taxes …………………………………………………….. 1%

Social issues…………………………………………… 4%

Illegal immigration……………………………………. 2%

Foreign policy, national security…………………. 5%

Something else ……………………………………….. 1%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q28 What is more important to you when deciding

who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat

Barack Obama in the general election, or their

positions on the issues?

More concerned about a candidate’s ability to

beat Barack Obama………………………………….50%

Their positions on the issues …………………….. 37%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q29 Who do you think will win the Republican

nomination for President: Newt Gingrich, Jon

Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney,

Rick Santorum, Buddy Roemer, or someone

else?

Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%

Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%

Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%

Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 3%

Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%

Rick Santorum………………………………………… 6%

Buddy Roemer………………………………………… 1%

Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 20%

Q30 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%

Man……………………………………………………….. 54%

Q31 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to

45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are

older than 65, press 4.

18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%

30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%

46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%

Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%

Q32 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,

somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat

conservative, or very conservative?

Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%

Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 2%

Moderate………………………………………………… 18%

Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%

Very conservative ……………………………………. 40%

Q33 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,

press 2. If you are an independent or identify

with another party, press 3.

Democrat ……………………………………………….. 3%

Republican……………………………………………… 80%

Independent/Other…………………………………… 17%

Q34 Do you consider yourself to be a member of

the Tea Party?

Yes………………………………………………………… 30%

No …………………………………………………………. 57%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q35 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

Are ………………………………………………………… 56%

Are not …………………………………………………… 44%

Q36 Region

Low Country……………………………………………. 35%

Midlands ………………………………………………… 33%

Upstate ………………………………………………….. 32%