From the Chicago Fed: Index Points to a Slight Increase in Economic Growth in December



Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved up slightly to +0.27 in December from +0.21 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from November, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in December. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged up to +0.16 in December from +0.12 in November.

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The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.

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A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.This suggests economic activity was slightly above the historical trend in December (using the three-month average).According to the Chicago Fed: