



Wisconsin voters are headed to the polls today, and it looks like it will be a big day for Ted Cruz.

The average of polls over the last week gives him a 3.1 point lead over Donald Trump. Cruz has led in five of six polls by between 5-10 points. Trump led by 10 points in the only other poll – an ARG poll that is the most recent of the polls. But ARG has had a mixed record this election cycle. They have been very close to actual vote totals in some states, but badly missed on Michigan, where they had John Kasich winning (Trump actually won by 12).

Looking at all six polls, you come away thinking Ted Cruz will win, I’d guess by about 8 points. That will be a huge win for him, keeping his campaign alive, and giving energy to the #NeverTrump folks whose goal is not so much to elect Ted Cruz, but to deny Donald Trump 1237 delegates before the GOP Convention. If they can keep him from that number, they intend to nominate someone else – perhaps not Trump OR Cruz. But first, they know they have to stop Trump. Cruz winning Wisconsin will go a long way to accomplishing that goal.