Photo credit: Robbie Mehling/Soc Takes

Cha-Ching. Corked Champagne. Celebrations. On April 18, MLS confirmed what everyone except Don Garber had said out loud — MLS would be expanding to 30 teams, already accelerating beyond their previously set upper limit of 28. While this is good news for the top division, what does it mean for current professional soccer in the lower divisions, particularly the USL?

Well, it’s likely good news.

The news of MLS expansion means that the USL can sell a dream to current and potential owners. That dream is: “Join us and find your feet. Once you do, you’re merely one step away from the big leagues.” It is the dream on which the futures of the ownership groups of Sacramento, Indy XI, Phoenix Rising FC, Saint Louis FC, Las Vegas, etc., hang their annual financial losses.

USL spokesperson Ryan Madden suggests that MLS expansion is a sign of the growth of the sport in the country.

“We believe that more soccer is better,” he said. “Whether it be in the Championship, League One, or elsewhere, expansion ultimately is a good thing. It means more access to more soccer for more fans across the country. Communities who have never before experienced the game in their own backyards are now getting that opportunity. Young soccer fans are being given a local club to grow up with and to look up to. Communities like Albuquerque, Memphis, Statesboro or Madison, to name just a few, are seeing their clubs become local rallying points. There are a tremendous amount of positives stemming from the game’s growth at the moment and we’re happy to be a part of it.”

Though when asked about whether or not expansion influences the USL’s own expansion efforts, Madden opined, “While expansion in other leagues only further emphasizes the appetite for professional soccer across the country, USL’s is conducted independently, and not influenced by other organizations.”

Ecosystem

Not influenced?

Whether the USL is not influenced by the decisions of the league is debatable. The USL is certainly independent in some demonstrable ways, such as its recent laudable decision to introduce temporary substitutes to facilitate the diagnosis of brain injury, something MLS has disturbingly and inexplicably not prioritized. But, in terms of expansion? Can the USL’s expansion and expansion fees exist in a sports-biz vacuum, independent of MLS’ actions?

Not buying it.

There are almost no independent USL teams in cities/areas that have successful or even semi-successful MLS franchises. The USL franchise fee will not — in any foreseeable scenario — exceed that of MLS. Sure, those things likely suggest prudent business practice versus any nefarious conflicts of interest, but they demonstrate that USL expansion is (and should be) influenced by the ecosystem it exists in.

And MLS remains the alpha predator of that ecosystem.

Money and data

In 2018, Soc Takes explored the financial implications of ownership investment in lower-division soccer based on data from 2017 and earlier. Per sources, it seems that losses in 2018 were of a similar magnitude as reported in that story. (Caveat: This is certainly anecdotal data — n = two clubs — and may not represent trends at other clubs. In other words, it is possible that USL clubs suddenly started performing better financially in 2018, though no such evidence exists.)

The league deserves immense credit for stabilizing Division 2 soccer vis-a-vis the metric of dying clubs. However, the financial concerns likely remain.

MLS’ 30-plus-team expansion will likely lead to more influx of expansion fees for the league, particularly as it begins to build out its fledgling, USL League One. The eventual ascendancy of a club like FC Cincinnati or Nashville will also mean the influx of “upward mobility fees,” as previously reported by Soc Takes.

If the USL is Dr. Evil, League One is clearly its Mini-Me. Using largely the same vision for expansion, rising expansion fees, etc., the league will adapt the lessons learned by the USL Championship on a honey-I-shrunk-it-down-to-Division 3 scale. In spite of their alignment with the USL, populating the third division is no easy task. Ask NISA. While League One experienced some growing pains, they seem to be on course to populate the third division. Per sources, the league will have 3-4 announcements regarding 2020 expansion teams in the fall.

So, yes, the league will continue to flourish. But, will MLS’ expansion directly affect the finances of teams? Indirectly, perhaps. Leveraging team-owned stadia allows owners to attempt to empower their own financial futures. Though, at this point, it seems that teams such as Louisville City and Indy XI are attempting to change the equation by taking MLS out of the equation, and convincing their cities that USL Championship soccer itself is worthy of fanciful leviathans of reinforced metal, artificial turf and incentivized taxpayer dollars.

When asked about the USL’s reliance on expansion fees, Madden told Soc Takes, “While we can’t divulge specific financial information, it’s fair to say that commercial growth will absolutely continue to be a priority for us. In fact, we’ll be making some very exciting announcements on that front in the near future.”

The future and the past

It remains to be seen if other clubs can convince their cities that the USL Championship has relevance on the sports stage. It also remains to be seen if USL team-owned stadia generate enough revenue to truly provide a return on investment of a magnitude hypothesized by many.

Approximately 500 years before the birth of Marouane Fellaini, Greek philosopher Heraclitus talked about the “upward-downward path” — that the facets of life interchange and occur simultaneously. His idea stood in direct contrast to that of his compatriot, Parmenidus, who opined on the immutable nature of life.

I have previously suggested that the USL’s purported growth may actually be Parmenidian stagnation. Yet, only results on a long-enough time scale will validate whether the league and its members succeed. Until then, the yet-again-open doorway of MLS expansion provides the space for Heraclitian movement, growth and, potentially, success.

Follow Nipun on Twitter: NipunChopra7.

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