On the day ICM gave the Tories a 12% lead, YouGov analysis has the Tories losing their majority

The front page of The Times made me say a phrase that rhymes with 'clucking bell' pic.twitter.com/p6f9QtQfZc — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 30, 2017

Tonight: we reveal YouGov's first seat by seat projection of the campaign – suggests Tories fall 16 seats short of overall majority pic.twitter.com/8ouPRHTZ7m — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) May 30, 2017

Tonight's YouGov data, which will be updated daily between now and polling day, based on complex model and 7,000 sample over 7 days pic.twitter.com/MzpXXifBFX — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) May 30, 2017

If you YouGov are accurate then Mrs May will be announcing her resignation in 10 days time

I’ve never known anything like it. Such divergent figures from two pollsters, this is the sort of stuff that destroys reputations. YouGov had the Tory lead in the 20s a few weeks, if Mrs May does lose her majority then she really will be the worst Tory leader in history. To lose David Cameron’s majority against Corbyn, that’s just shocking, but after GE2015, Brexit, and Trump, we should learn not to take anything for granted.

I have doubts about these findings from YouGov because it doesn’t match up with the supplementaries/leader ratings.

No one can accuse the pollsters of herding at this election.

TSE

Update

@thetimes @SamCoatesTimes For the sceptics: this model was publicly tested during the EU referendum and it always had Leave ahead: https://t.co/JHbqbg3wYM pic.twitter.com/UHnFHVlF9I — Peter Yeung (@ptr_yeung) May 30, 2017