I have been wondering how the Flyers ranked over the last ten years. This is by no means a thorough analysis, but more of a simple "I-look-at-the-standings-at-the-end-of-the-regular-season". It does not include the playoffs, and it does not include trades for picks. So take it with a grain of salt. Oh, and it doesn't include Vegas, because.



However, what it does show is that over the last decade, some teams were constantly in the top 10-region (PIT, WAS, BOS), some teams rose after being bad for half a decade (TOR, WIN, CAL/NYI to some extent), some teams remained basement dwellers (EDM, BUF), and some teams remained dead in the middle (MIN, MON, PHI, DAL). In fact, PHI and MON are the only teams with an average ranking between 14 and 16 over the last decade, with PHI being the very definition of average (15). To see some kind of development, I also used a 3-season-rolling-average, there it is more clear what teams are on a downward trend, and what teams are trending upwards.





So, to sum it up (and more of a confirmation of what we already know/witnessed):



Group 1: Teams that have been good for almost the whole decade:



BOS, PIT, SJS, TBL, WAS

Lucky you. But be aware: Your downfall will come.

Group 2: Teams that passed rockbottom and have already started trending upwards:



CAL, CBJ, NYI, TOR, WIN

I'd love to be part of this group, if you continue your paths, you could dominate the next decade and become the new group 1.

Group 3: Teams that passed rockbottom and could start trending upwards:



ARI, CAR, EDM, BUF, VAN

Your future could look bright. It couldn't look much worse than before anyway. You might be set up to become the new group 2.

Group 4: Teams that remained mediocre:



COL, DAL, FLA, MIN, MON, PHI

You have no direction. You didn't tank, and you didn't become a contender either. Your future is murky without FA-moves/trades.

Group 5: Teams that peaked and are starting a downward trend:



ANA, CHI, DET, LAK, NJD, NYR, OTT, STL

Your time passed. If you take Group 2 as your model and go full rebuild, you could make it back to Group 2. Try retooling, and you will end up in Group 4.





TLDR

As a Flyers Fan, I don't like the development over the last 10 years. This is clearly not a deep analysis, since it doesn't include playoffs, individual factors, etc. But I am still somewhat disappointed by how the curve of the Flyers seems to be stuck in mediocrity, with 7 out of 10 rankings somewhere between 13 and 22. The Flyers will need draft picks that exceed expectations, above average coaching, and clever additions via trade/FA, otherwise it might be difficult to get out of this average group.



Here's the link to the tableau if you want to play around with the different sheets (each season individually, 10-year-average, 3-season-rolling-average).

https://public.tableau.com/views/NHLStandings200910-201819/Story1?:embed=y&:display_count=yes&publish=yes

Have fun and let mw know what you think.