6.07am: So much for decision day. This seems to be an election without a result. As Lord Ashdown said earlier, "the country has spoken - but we don't know what they've said". I'm heading home in a moment, and my colleague Hélène Mulholland will be taking over on a new blog. But first here's a summary of where we are.

• A hung parliament is virtually inevitable. With more than 500 seats counted, the BBC is predicting that the Conservatives will end up with 306 seats, Labour 262 seats and the Lib Dems 55 seats. The Conservatives are currently on 37% of the vote, Labour on 28% and the Lib Dems on 23%.

• Gordon Brown has said that it is his "duty" to try to form a stable government. Constitutionally, he is right. Given that the Tories do not have a majority, he is entitled to form a government and to try to get a Queen's speech through the Commons. He only has to resign if the Queen's speech is voted down. (Effectively it's a confidence vote.) Although some reporters travelling with him think he seems gloomy about his long-term prospects, he claims to be "energised" by the result and Labour have started semi-public negotiations with the Lib Dems about a coalition. Ministers such as Lord Mandelson and Alan Johnson have indicated that they would like to do a deal over PR.

• David Cameron has said that Brown no longer has a right to govern. But Cameron has not demanded Brown's resignation, and he has indicated that he is not going push for a hasty resolution of the situation. It looks as if Brown will remain in Downing Street for the next few days at least, and perhaps for much longer.

• The Liberal Democrats have had a terrible night. Their share of the vote has gone up just 1 point and they have lost seats. But Nick Clegg - the man who used to say he wasn't a kingmaker - has become the kingmaker. He holds the balance of power. In the past he has said that the party that wins should have first right to try to form a government. But Lib Dems have said that that does not mean the party would automatically support the Tories. As I write, Clegg himself has not spoken.

• Two former home secretary, Charles Clarke and Jacqui Smith, have lost their seats. They are the most high-profile Labour casualties so far. Several ministers, including Vera Baird, Mike O'Brien, Bill Rammell and Angela Smith also lost their seats.

• Peter Robinson, the DUP leader and Northern Ireland's first minister, lost his seat in Belfast East. But he will stay on as first minister because he retains a seat in the Northern Ireland Assembly.

• Independent candidates have not made a breakthrough. Esther Rantzen did not get elected and two independents who sat in the last parliament - Dai Davies and Richard Taylor - were defeated.

• The Green party got its first candidate into parliament when Caroline Lucas won Brighton Pavilion.

• Hundreds of people were not able to vote because of problems at polling stations. The Electoral Commission has ordered an inquiry.

That's it. I'm going to take a rest now. I'll be back later today.

Earlier (see 8.18pm) I posted a hung parliament reading list. At the time I did not know if anyone would need it. But we do now. If you want to know what the future holds, I suggest you take a look.

5.41am: My colleague Henry McDonald is interested in the contrast between Peter Robinson and Gerry Adams.

Peter Robinson lost his East Belfast seat after a barrage of allegations against him over alleged links with property developers, claims he strenously denies. On top of that has been the painful and embarrrassing revelations about his wife, Iris, her toy boy lover and the £50,000 she secured for her boyfriend from business contacts. In the very same period as the Robinson family's reputation came under attack Gerry Adams, the Sinn Féin president, came under fire from his own niece Aine Tyrell over her claims that he failed to act against his brother Liam in connection with allegations of child sex abuse. Aine Tyrell claimed that Gerry Adams was aware of her claims that Liam Adams had sexually abused her as a child for many years. In the midst of these claims the Sinn Féin president revealed another skeleton from the family cupboard - that his father Gerry Senior (an old IRA icon in Belfast) had been guilty of sexually abusing members of his own family. On top of all that Gerry Adams faced allegations from the grave that he had played a central role in the murder and disappearance of a west Belfast mother accused of being an informer in the winter of 1972. These claims were made by Brendan Darkie Hughes, a former IRA Belfast commander who left audio tapes that were to be released on his death which contained damaging allegations about Adams' role in the IRA at the time Jean McConville was kidnapped, killed and buried in secret. In many ways the allegations against Adams were more serious than those levelled at Peter Robinson. After all they concerned the murder of a mother of seven and the alleged abuse of his niece, and claims of an internal republican cover-up. Yet today Adams topped the poll in his West Belfast constituency with 22,840 votes - the highest personal vote for any candidate in Northern Ireland. The worlds of East and West Belfast are clearly poles apart when it comes to how their respective electorates view allegations against their sitting MPs.

5.37am: Lewis Baston is wondering what happened to decapitation.

The survival rate of Labour cabinet ministers in vulnerable seats is so far perfect, although John Denham had to sweat in Southampton Itchen before he was declared the winner by 192 votes in the seat he has held since 1992. In marginal Exeter, Ben Bradshaw survived well; Ed Balls suffered a big swing against him but was elected for Morley & Outwood. In Scotland, some people had thought Jim Murphy and Alistair Darling under threat, but both were re-elected in triumph with swings in their favour. The casualty rate among former home secretaries, though, is very high - Jacqui Smith losing as anticipated, and Charles Clarke a rare Labour loser in a university constituency in Norwich South.

5.34am: Lewis was right. Labour have held Hammersmith. That's bad news for the Tories. Their candidate in Hammersmith, black charity worker Shaun Bailey, was an emblem for "big society" Cameroonism and the seat was 78th on the Tory target list.

5.28am: Here's some more from Lewis Baston.

Some VERY good Labour results coming in from London - holding Westminster North which I thought impossible (and a tribute to the local work done by Karen Buck), Islington South & Finsbury and apparently Hammersmith as well.

Peter Walker tells me that Norwich South (the Charles Clarke defeat) was bad news for the Greens.

Away from the headline of the Lib Dems taking Charles Clarke's seat, the result is very bad news for the Greens. It was their second-biggest hope, and in the smooth, energetic Adrian Ramsay, their 28-year-old deputy leader, they had a good candidate. But he's come fourth, with 14.9% of vote, well up on 2005 but badly squeezed in a tight, four-way race. Could Brighton Pavilion go the same way? The Greens here look very shaky as the count drags on.

Caroline Davies has sent me this snippet from the Twickenham count.

Vince Cable has just arrived at Richmond College ahead of the Twickenham count. "What happened to Cleggmania?" shouted reporters "There's not a lot of it around," replied Cable.

5.24am: Here's another list of Tory gains.

CON GAIN - Redditch - 9.2% swing from Labour - Jacqui Smith's seat CON GAIN - Burton - 8.7% swing from Labour CON GAIN - Hereford & Herefordshire South - 3.8% swing from Lib Dems CON GAIN: Northampton South - 9.6% swing Lab to Con CON GAIN - Brigg & Goole - 9.8% swing from Labour CON GAIN - Dudley South - 9.5% swing from Lab to Con CON GAIN - Oxford West - 6.9% swing from the Lib Dems CON GAIN - Cannock Chase - 14% swing from Labour

5.19am: My colleague, Scotland correspondent Severin Carrell, says Alex Salmond is now under pressure because the the SNP is failing to make any gains.

The SNP are expected to end with six seats at Westminster – the same number it won in 2005 – despite repeated boasts by Salmond that the SNP would win more than 20 seats and make Westminster "dance to a Scottish jig". Salmond admitted early this morning this was no longer possible, but claimed the number of SNP votes cast was its best result since the 1970s. "The Lib Dems have failed in Scotland and are being pushed into third or even fourth place," he said. "The picture across the UK may be unclear, but it is clear the Tories have has a disastrous night as they have once again been decisively rejected across Scotland." Iain Gray, the Scottish Labour leader, said: "Voters across Scotland have punished the SNP and rejected the Lib Dems. With such big turnouts across Scotland these results send a clear message that the people of Scotland are seeing through Alex Salmond's bluster.

"Alex Salmond's 20- seat target has disappeared off the Richter scale."

5.17am: This is what Gordon Brown told reporters on the flight down to London.

I am the leader of the Labour, but I have also got a duty to the country. Two things are now clear. The economy is incredibly important to our future and we must be sending out the right message to the world. The second is the political reform agenda is there. What is clear is that the expectations of the Conservative party have not been met.

Brown also said he felt "energised" and "resolute".

I am determined. I have been through a lot in my political career and my personal life. I am used to difficulty. Difficulty is not an excuse for failure. But difficulty does not set you back. It is what prompts you to move forward with more determination.

5.15am: Labour have won Rochdale. Gordon Brown's comment about Gillian Duffy doesn't seem to have done too much damage there.

5.13am: Here's another list from the Tories of some of the seats they have won.

CON GAIN - Dartford - 11.6% swing from Labour CON GAIN - Romsey/Southampton North - 4.5% from LD to Con CON GAIN - Carlisle - 7.7% swing from Labour CON GAIN - South Ribble - 8.1% from Lab to Con CON GAIN - Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South - 6.9 per cent swing from Labour CON GAIN - Cleethorpes - 7.8% swing from Lab to Con

They have now gained more than 50 seats.

5.08am: Lord Ashdown summed up the situation quite well on Sky.

The country has spoken. But we do not know what it has said.

Ashdown also said that there was no need to arrange a coalition over the next day or so. He said the country would govern itself quite happily until Monday or Tuesday.

5.02am: And were you still up for Charles Clarke? He lost to the Lib Dems. He made a gracious speech at the count, thanking the Norwich South for having let him represent it in the past. He's a fierce critic of Brown's. But, in his speech, he did not mention him, or seek to blame anyone for his defeat.

4.57am: Where you still up for Ed Balls? If so, you will have heard him make his victory speech. He won Morley and Outwood with a majority of just over 1,000.

4.55am: ICM has produced an estimate for the final share of the vote, based on the figures already in.

Conservatives: 37.7%

Labour: 28.2%

Lib Dems: 23.1%

Others: 11.1%

These figures may change when the final results come in, but probably not by much. They suggest that Labour is going to do even worse than in 1983, when Michael Foot achieved 28.3%.

4.50am: John Simpson has just told the BBC that Gordon Brown spoke to journalists on the plane down from Scotland and that Brown made it clear that he felt it was his duty to establish a stable government.

Brown insisted there would not be a quick settlement, Simpson said.

4.45am: Latest summary

• More than half the results are now in. The Tories have gained 47 seats, Labour have lost 41 seats and the Lib Dems have lost 5 seats. On the basis of these figures, there's a swing from Labour to the Conservatives of 5.2%. With swing varying widely from constituency to constituency, it is still had to predict the result, although the results that have come in do seem to be consistent with the exit poll, which forecast the Tories getting 305 seats and Labour getting 255 seats.

• Gordon Brown and David Cameron have both returned to London. They both say that Britain needs a strong and stable government. Cameron says that Brown has no mandate to govern, but he has not demanded his immediate resignation. Brown has signalled that he wants to do a deal with the Liberal Democrats.

• At least four ministers have lost their seats: Angela Smith, Bill Rammell, Mike O'Brien and Vera Baird. Jacqui Smith, the former home secretary, has just lost her set in Redditch.

• The two independents who sat in the last parliament - Dai Davies and Richard Taylor - have been defeated. And Esther Rantzen failed to get elected in Luton South. She received fewer than 2,000 votes.

• Ed Balls has held his seat.

4.36am: Jacqui Smith, the former home secretary, has been defeated in Redditch.

4.34am: Justin Forsyth, a Downing Street aide, has just posted this on Twitter.

Just landed back in London. Lots of results coming in. But picture still not clear. Gordon focussed on stable, strong and principled gov

I can understand why Brown keeps saying the government should be "stable" and "strong"; that seems to be code for "proper coalition", rather than a less formal arrangement. But why does he keep saying "principled"? Is that code for PR? Or is he implying that a Conservative-Lib Dem deal would be unprincipled? He seems to be using that word to stress the natural affinity between Labour and the Lib Dems.

4.27am: Labour have lost Redcar. Vera Baird, the solicitor general, was defeated by a Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dems won with a swing of more than 20%, one of the largest swings of the evening.

But the Lib Dems have lost Oxford West and Abingdon. Evan Harris has been defeated by the Tory Nicola Blackwood.

4.23am: Richard Taylor, the independent who represented Wyre Forest, has lost his seat. With Dai Davies losing in Blaenau Gwent too, that means both genuine independents in the last parliament have lost.

4.21am: A gnomic tweet from Boris Johnson's sister Rachel:

RT @RachelSJohnson: It's all gone tits up. Call for Boris (via @indiaknight)

She has also tweeted a picture of her brother Jo – Tory candidate in Orpington – "writing his victory speech".

4.19am: Here's what David Miliband said earlier about parties working together.

If indeed no party has won an absolute majority then it seems to me perfectly reasonable and right that parties should talk to each other to see if they can find common ground to establish a strong and stable government. There's no harm in that. It's a good thing to do when the voters have clearly not embraced any of us and given us the absolute majority that we are all seeking.

On Radio 4 Alistair Darling has just said much the same thing.

4.16am: Jacqui Smith, the Labour former home secretary, has lost in Redditch, according to Sky. Redditch was 47th on the Tory target list.

4.14am: Here's some YouTube footage of the protest at a polling station in Sheffield when students were turned away without being allowed to vote.

4.10am: Henry McDonald has sent me this from Northern Ireland.

The outcome of the general election in Northern Ireland means two party leaders are now living on borrowed time. Peter Robinson's shock defeat at the hands of the non-sectarian Alliance party calls into question his continued leadership of the Democratic Unionist party. While the failure of the Ulster Unionist-Tory alliance to win a single seat will prove fatal for Sir Reg Empey, the UUP leader. Earlier today one of Sir Reg's own assembly members David McNarry said it was time for his leader to consider his position. It will be surprising if Sir Reg lasts the weekend as head of what was once the single biggest party in Northern Ireland.

4.08am: David Blunkett has suggested that Labour should admit defeat. According to the Press Association, he put it like this.

It's a difficult night for all of us but in a democracy you don't just win you also sometimes have to concede defeat. That's the essence of a living democracy and it involves us being mature in how we handle that and being prepared to rebuild and fight back.

4.01am: Douglas Alexander, Labour's general election coordinator, has described Scotland as a success for Labour:

It's too early to try and call this election but what is already clear is the SNP are moving backwards, the Conservatives are going nowhere in Scotland. That's why there's some way yet to run in this election. We've some spectacular results across Scotland. Right across Scotland, people have come home to Labour. We've never taken Scotland for granted, we've worked for every vote this evening and we've enjoyed success as a consequence of a great deal of hard work.

3.58am: Denis MacShane isn't very sympathetic to those people who could not vote by 10pm. He's put this on Twitter.

Voters had 15 hours to vote. Cam focus on this again shows odd priorities

3.54am: The Tories have sent me a list of recent gains. Here it is:

CON GAIN - Blackpool North - swing from Lab to Con of 6.9% CON GAIN: Derbyshire South - 9.8 per cent swing from Labour CON GAIN - Dover - 10.4% swing from Lab to Con CON GAIN - Harlow - 5.9% swing from Labour CON GAIN - Newton Abbot - 5.8% swing from LD to Con CON GAIN - Erewash - swing from Labour of 10.5% CON GAIN - Harrogate and Knaresborough - 9.1% from Lib Dems CON GAIN - Basildon South - 7.5% swing from Labour CON GAIN - Nuneaton - 7.2 per cent swing from Labour CON GAIN - Tamworth - 9.5 per cent swing from Labour CON GAIN - Leicestershire North West - 12 per cent swing from Labour CON GAIN - Vale Of Glamorgan - 6.1 per cent swing from Labour CON GAIN - Montgomeryshire - Lembit Opik's seat - swing of 13.2 per cent CON GAIN - Aberconwy - 7.6% CON GAIN - Dartford - 11.6 per cent swing from Labour CON GAIN - Loughborough - swing 5.5% Lab to Con

There's a green wobble in Brighton Pavilion. My colleague Peter Walker has sent me this.

Were the Greens being over-confident in Brighton? On the record they were "quietly confident" of making Caroline Lucas their first MP. Off the record the confidence was quite loud. But the piled ballot papers seem to show a close-run thing, and interestingly, after weeks of predictions of a Green-Tory fight it's Labour who are running Lucas neck-and-neck, with the Conservatives seemingly some way back. One official still tips Lucas to win, though, he told me.

Labour have gained a seat. They've taken Blaenau Gwent back from the independent candidate, Dai Davies. Blaenau Gwent used to be an ultra-safe Labour seat until it went independent after a row about all-women shortlists.

3.49am: Latest summary:

• More than 250 results are now in. The Tories have won 25 seats, Labour has lost 24 seats, and the Lib Dems have lost one seat. On the basis of these results, the swing from Labour to the Conservatives is 4.8%. This suggests that we're on course for a hung parliament, but there are wide variations in swing in different constituencies.

• David Cameron said Labour had "lost its mandate to govern". But, in a speech in his constituency, he did not declare victory for the Conservatives. He said that he would act in the national interest and he suggested that he was willing to wait until a new government is formed. He said his priority would be to give Britain a "good, strong, stable government".

• Nick Clegg has yet to comment on the result, but he has just arrived at the count in his Sheffield constituency. Although his party has performed badly, he seems to be on course for holding the balance of power. In the past he has said that the party that wins the strongest mandate should have the right to try to form a government first. This was seen as a sign that he would seek to reach a deal with the Tories, not Labour. But tonight some Lib Dems have stressed that that formula does not commit the party to working with Cameron.

David Cameron giving his acceptance speech. Photograph: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

3.39am: For the record, here is a key extract from David Cameron's speech:

Whatever happens tonight, whatever the future may hold, I will always work hard as a constituency MP standing up for your interests. Nationally we have to wait for the full results to come out. But I believe it is already clear that the Labour government has lost its mandate to govern our country. Although there are still many more results to come out, it looks as if the Conservative party is on target to win more seats than we have done at any election for perhaps as long as 80 years ... What will guide me in the hours ahead, and perhaps longer than the hours ahead, will be the national interest – to do what is right for our country, to make sure we have that government, have that stability, take the right decisions. We live in difficult times but this is a great country and we will come through them and be stronger. At all times what I will do is put the national interest first to make sure we have good, strong, stable government for our country.

3.33am: Here's Lewis Baston's latest take on the situation:

Lewis Baston byline. Photograph: The Guardian

If the Conservatives win an overall majority, it might be – against all expectations – thanks to over-performing against the Lib Dems. Two very long shots have come in for them, namely the personal contest in Montgomeryshire and the very surprising failure of the Lib Dems to hold Harrogate and Knaresborough. It looked like a seat that was safe for the party, as opposed to a personal fiefdom, and should have survived the retirement of its MP Phil Willis (particularly as Claire Kelley, his replacement, was a strong candidate). Tory hopes must be high in other targets like Hereford. But in one place at least, 2010 was a Lib Dem triumph in a marginal. David Heath has won Somerton and Frome three times by nail-biting margins, but this time despatched Nancy Rees-Mogg by a more comfortable majority than he has enjoyed before.

3.31am: Henry McDonald has sent me some more about the results in Northern Ireland:

Naomi Long denied that her victory [over Peter Robinson] was due to local anger over allegations of financial corruption and revelations about Iris Robinson's affair with a teenager. But the DUP does remain set to retain its other eight Westminster seats with the party seeing off a challenge from the hardline anti-power-sharing Traditional Unionist Voice. The TUV's poor showing means that there is no immediate threat to power sharing in Northern Ireland. The general election also proved disastrous for the new Ulster Unionist-Conservative alliance with the party gaining no seats. Their best hope, Sir Reg Empey, lost the South Antrim constituency to the DUP's William McCrea, the sitting MP, by just over 1,000 votes. Their former MP Lady Hermon romped home in her North Down constituency with a majority of almost 15,000 over her nearest rival. Hermon rejected overtures from David Cameron to join the Tory-UUP alliance.

3.27am: Paul Lewis has sent me this from the Brown plane.

Paul Lewis Photograph: Sarah Lee

Gordon Brown has just boarded the 737 chartered jet to London. We should land just after 4am. He came on carrying his own hand-luggage, looking as tired as would be expected. He is sat at the front of the plane, beside his wife Sarah, who's smiling. My sense of the mood among Brown and his team is that they are by no means down. They've reminded us a few times that his "strong, stabled and principled" speech was a nod toward an intention to do deals in the event of a hung parliament. No coincidence that he singled out electoral reform in that speech. Brown's team is also genuinely shocked as the failure of Lib Dems to pick up seats. They seem to think there is something to play for here. We're hoping for him to come to the back of the plane at some point during the journey, so I'll let you know the feeling when we land.

3.26am: On the BBC, Jeremy Paxman says talks between Labour and the Lib Dems have already begun.

3.25am: Jeremy Paxman has just asked Liam Fox if he could imagine doing a deal with the Lib Dems. Fox sidestepped the question, saying he would like to wait for the full results.

3.22am: Helen Pidd has sent me some intelligence from Luton.

Helen Pidd. Photograph: Martin Argles/The Guardian

This is totally unconfirmed, but Labour are on course to hold both Luton seats, according to Francis Steer, election agent to Luton South Labour candidate Gavin Shuker. He just told me they think he will win with a 5,000 majority, just slightly down on Margaret Moran's result five years ago. Seems the expenses swindle and lobbying scandal harmed

Moran but not her party. Lib Dem activists agree that Labour have won both, and say if it weren't for Esther Rantzen, the Tories would have won Luton South. They say Rantzen nicked Tory votes in affluent white areas.

Result expected in Luton North in 20 mins; Luton South will be nearer to 4am.

3.19am: Lewis Baston has been looking at Scotland:

The Conservatives are in all sorts of trouble in Scotland. They missed two targets from the SNP by miles – particularly disappointing for them in the traditionally Tory city of Perth and its surrounding acres – and seem to have lost out in another potential gain in Edinburgh South. I would be surprised if they emerged with more than three seats in total, and not at all surprised if there were only one Tory MP from Scotland (as in 2001 and 2005). A Conservative government in Whitehall, talking to an SNP government in Edinburgh, will do so despite Labour's overwhelming dominance of Scotland's representation at Westminster.

3.18am: Vernon Bogdanor, who taught David Cameron politics at Oxford, is doing the pundit shift on the BBC. He said Cameron was one of the most able students he taught. Cameron had a very good "temperament", he said. But they disagreed on many things.

Photograph: Danny Lawson/PA

3.17am: My colleague Matthew Taylor says Nick Griffin has conceded defeat in Barking. "I am being realistic. Margaret Hodge is clearly going to hold this seat," he told journalists.

3.16am: John Simpson is broadcasting from Gordon Brown's plane. He says that hope is fading, although "every time there's a Labour win a shout goes up".

Will Brown resign later today, Dimbleby asks.

Simpson says Brown won't resign until he has to. But he thinks Brown is "fully prepared" to go.

3.10am: David Cameron has been re-elected. In his victory speech, the Tory leader said that Labour had "lost its mandate to govern". But he did not demand Gordon Brown's immediate resignation and he suggested that it could take some time before a new government emerges.

He started by congratulating the returning officer for organising a proper election and said that the new government should organise an inquiry into the voting problems elsewhere as a priority.

Then he turned to the national situation.

Nationally we have to wait for the full results to come out. But I believe it is already clear that the Labour government has lost its mandate to govern this country.

The Tories were on target to win more seats than in the last 80 years, he said.

What will guide me in the hours ahead – and perhaps longer than hours ahead – is to do what is right for our country ... At all times I will put the national interest first to make sure we have good, strong stable government for our country.

That sounds to me as if he does not expect to be in Downing Street by the end of today.

The most important speech tonight may be the one we get from Nick Clegg. Clegg's party may be performing badly. But by the end of the night he might be the most powerful man in the country because he could decide who forms the next government.

3.02am: Gordon Brown has left his constituency count and is on his way to Edinburgh, where he is meant to be getting a flight down to London, I'm told.

3.00am: More about the voting chaos in Sheffield. This is from my colleague Jon Henley, who has been following Nick Clegg.

Sheffield's deputy returning officer, Lee Adams, said around 100 frustrated voters refused to leave one polling station in Clegg's Sheffield Hallam constituency, and police had to be called. "They were very angry," she said, "particularly some students. We couldn't cope, basically." Adams said staff numbers at St John's church hall in Ranmore had been doubled at 4pm when it became clear that the combination of a higher than usual turnout and a large number of students turning up without their ballot cards threatened to overwhelm them. "Many people had already turned up once, gone away and come back again," she said. "We should have had more staff on from the start. We got things wrong, basically, and we're very apologetic and distraught about that." It was not legally possible to extend opening hours, she said.

2.55am: David Cameron will not challenge Gordon Brown's right to try to form a government, the BBC reports. Cameron is due to make a speech in about 10 minutes. Cameron will say that the Tories have a moral right to govern. But he is going to respect the constitutional conventions.

Apparently Cameron will also condemn the fact that so many people were unable to vote. (Brown only made an indirect reference to this in his speech.)

2.55am: Jeremy Paxman has just asked Lembit Öpik about his defeat. Like me, Paxman suggested that the Cheeky Girls might have had something to do with it. Öpik said that was a superficial and patronising suggestion that was unfair to his Tory opponent.

Photograph: Richard Saker/Rex Features

2.51am: My colleague Caroline Davies has sent me this from Richmond Park, where Zac Goldsmith is hoping to gain a seat for the Tories from the Lib Dems.

Zac Goldsmith, the millionaire ecologist and Tory candidate hoping to take affluent Richmond Park from the Lib Dem incumbent Susan Kramer, has just arrived at the count at Richmond College looking tanned and relaxed. But he may have a long wait. Originally the declaration was expected around 4am. But now we are being told that because of the high turnout there is unlikely to be a result before 5am, and quite possibly a lot longer after that. The reason being given is that the returns on postal votes have been "phenomenal" to quote one source. And all have to be verified before the count proper can start. Goldsmith, who has accused the Lib Dems of running a "dirty tricks" campaign said he was feeling "good".

2.48am: Here's some good news for the Lib Dems. Chris Huhne has held Eastleigh, converting a 534 majority into a majority of over 3,000, and David Heath has seen off a challenge from the Tory Annunziata Rees-Mogg.

And some bad news for them too. They've lost Harrogate and Knaresborough, where Phil Willis had a majority of nearly 8,000.

2.42am: Latest summary:

• More than 120 results are now in. The Tories have gained 12, Labour have lost 11 and the Lib Dems have lost one. According to the BBC, so far there has been a swing from Labour to the Tories of 4.1%.

• The eventual likely result is still unclear. Ken Clarke has described it as the most unpredictable election that he has ever taken part in.

• The Liberal Democrats are doing worse than expected. They've lost a seat - Lembit Öpik's Montgomeryshire seat - and they failed to gain Guildford, their top target seat.

• Bond prices are up. The market opened early this morning and prices are up, suggesting that traders are betting on a Tory victory.

2.32am: The Tories are ahead in Harlow (5th on their target list) and Aberconwy (37th on their target list), according to the Press Association.

Lembit Opik. Photograph: Martin Argles

2.31am: Lembit Opik has lost Montgomeryshire. He has been defeated by a Tory, who won with a swing of 13.2%. A colleague says they are "very chapel" in Montgomeryshire. Presumably his antics with the Cheeky Girls didn't go down well.

2.27am: It seems that City traders, like David Cameron, never go to bed. The Press Association has filed this story about trading in sterling and bonds.

Sterling and UK Government bonds rallied today as a series of big Conservative swings suggested the party may scrape a majority. The pound rose more than a cent to 1.49 dollars and 1.18 euros in the early hours, after initially falling against both currencies amid a forecast of a hung parliament. June gilts - a form of UK Government bond - also ticked up more than 1% in early bond trading on the Liffe exchange, suggesting more investors are expecting a "decisive" Tory administration which will tackle the UK's massive deficit. The Liffe exchange opened more than six hours early to satisfy huge election night demand from major players such as banks and hedge funds. David Jones, chief market strategist at IG Index, said: "There's definitely a feeling building that the Tories are going to scrape in with a majority. "The exit poll results suggested we shouldn't really believe them, but there's been such a big swing in some of these other seats to the Conservatives."

At the BBC, by comparison, the verdict seems to be that we are heading for a hung parliament.

Who should you trust? Nick Robinson or the bond market? They can't both be right.

2.25am: Lewis Baston has sent me this about the evasive Lib Dem surge.

It is a given that the Lib Dem performance in elections is uneven, but we did expect it to be less true than usual because of a national lift provided by the 'Clegg factor'. In their previous surge elections in 1983 and 1974 they did tend to rise everywhere, but it seems that it is not happening in 2010 (even assuming that when the dust settles this still counts as a 'surge' election for them). They have missed two targets in Guildford (probably harder than it looked given that it had a new first time incumbent Tory MP) and what should have been a sitting duck in City of Durham, a Labour marginal. Having said on Twitter that I would eat my hat if the Lib Dems finish on the 59 seats or so predicted in the exit poll, I may have to look into buying a marzipan hat.

Gordon Brown Photo: EPA

2.19am: For the record, here is the key quote from Gordon Brown's speech in his constituency.



The outcome of this country's vote is not yet known. But my duty to the country, coming out of this election, is to play my part in Britain having a strong, stable and principled government, able to lead Britain into sustained economic recovery and able to implement our commitments to far-reaching reform to our political system - upon which there is a growing consensus in our country.

2.13am: My colleague Afua Hirsch says Labour's Chuka Umunna is on course to win in Streatham. She has posted this on Twitter.

Chuku Umunna's people in Streatham feeling cautiously optimistic. Last few results have definitely boosted vibe here in Brixton

The Lib Dems were in second place in Streatham in 2005, but well behind Labour.

2.08am: Alex Salmond told Radio 4 the SNP had not made a breakthrough against Labour. He said that was because the Labour vote strengthened in the last few days. He claimed that was because Scottish voters were alarmed by the prospect of a Tory majority.

Our vote is up quite substantially in Scotland ... It looks like we are moving to to second place in Westminster votes.

But the SNP has just lost Glasgow East, a seat it won from Labour in a byelection. Labour have won it back.

2.06am: Like Jim Naughtie (see 1.57am), the Tories are taking an interest in the absence of the Lib Dem surge. Tory HQ has just sent out this:

Durham - LAB HOLD: Lib Dem share of vote down 2.1%, Con up 3.9% - Target seat 23 for Lib Dems Fife North East - LIB DEM HOLD: Sir Menzies Campbell's seat - 5% swing from Lib Dem to Con

David Cameron with his wife Samantha at the count in Witney. Photograph: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

2.03am: Lord Ashdown thinks Cameron will win:

I think there will be a small Tory majority or a Tory minority which could be made into a majority by the use of Ulstermen.

2.02am: Labour has held Gedling in the Midlands. It was 92nd on the the Tory target list and the Tories could have taken it with a swing of 4.82%.

1.58am: Steven Morris has sent me this from Birmingham.

Steven Morris byline. Photograph: Jeff Morgan

Rumour – and it is nothing more than that at the moment – sweeps the National Indoor Arena in Birmingham that Labour's Richard Burden could be in trouble in Northfield. This is the constituency of the Longbridge plant.

1.57am: Oliver Letwin is safe in West Dorset, I'm told. He had a notional majority of 2,461 over the Lib Dems and there was speculation that he was in trouble.

On Radio 4 Jim Naughtie has just asked: "Where is the Lib Dem surge?" It doesn't seem to exist.

1.53am: Two bad results for the Lib Dems. They failed to win Guildford, their top target seat. The Tory Anne Milton comfortably beat the Lib Dems' Sue Doughty. And the Lib Dems failed to take City of Durham, a Labour seat that was 23rd on their target list.

1.50am: Here is some more number-crunching from Lewis Baston. He's been looking at Wales.

The Conservatives were hoping for a good showing in Wales, perhaps returning as many as 12-15 MPs, but their hopes seem to have been dashed. Labour's Chris Ruane has held Vale of Clwyd, a seat that had featured on most run-downs of potential Tory gains in Wales, with a small swing. But Ruane is not the most marginal Labour MP to survive – that honour belongs to Albert Owen in Ynys Mon, a seat that may be unique in being Labour in 2010 but not in 1997. Owen gained the seat (the isle of Anglesey) in 2001 and is a canny local politician.

And at Brown's constituency too:

Gordon Brown may not have taken Britain by storm, but he is a prophet with honour in his home town of Kirkcaldy. He won a healthy swing in his favour and a vote of confidence from his neighbours. In this, he is not unusual among party leaders, who often get a boost in their own constituency and the region they come from. Michael Howard won triumphantly in Folkestone, at least, in 2005, and in 2001 William Hague won a massive vote of confidence in Richmond, and above-average results in the rest of Yorkshire. Brown seems to be doing fairly well in Scotland, not just in Kirkcaldy, in 2010.

1.48am: Paul Lewis says Downing Street is in a bit of a tiz about the way Brown's remarks (see 1.02am) are being interpreted. "Sources close to PM concerned that the line about coalition – flashed on PA and BBC from here – was too strong. The big caveat is: if there is a hung parliament and Tories can't get majority," Paul says.

1.45am: The BBC says bond prices are up. Hugh Pym says that means traders are banking on a Tory victory.

1.44am: Julian Glover at the Cif at the polls rolling comment blog thinks Brown should admit that the game is up.

1.42am: Nick Robinson has just told the BBC that he felt from Brown's demeanour that Brown did not expect to remain as prime minister for very long. David Dimbleby felt it had a "valedictory" tone. It certainly did. But it didn't sound like a concession of defeat either. I thought Brown was hedging his bets.

1.41am: Brown has just been speaking after being re-elected in Kirkcaldy. He started his speech with a tribute to people in the constituency, and a reference to the church where his father preached "and where I first learnt about social justice".

He said he was proud of much that Labour had achieved. And he was proudest of all to be elected as an MP for Fife.

He thanked people in the constituency who had worked for him. And he thanked Sarah for her "love and support" and for her "legendary campaigning skills".

Turning to the election, he said it was his duty to help the country have a strong and stable government.

1.35am: Here's a selection from Twitter.

From Mark Davies, an adviser to Jack Straw:

At the count in Blackburn. Tories looking grumpy. Lib dems cheery. We are nervous. #electionday

From Will Straw:

Labour holds Tooting. @GuidoFawkes is furious. Might prevent the majority.

From Henry Macrory, Conservative head of press:

Blunkett says instinct is that Labour have lost the election

From Jim Murphy:

East Ren turnout incredible 77%

From Gaby Hinsliff:

reported 9 pc swing to con in darlington interesting. (alan milburn's old seat). some big swings happening in seats that werent on radar

1.34am: Gordon Brown has held his seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbreath.

1.28am: Latest summary:

• More than 20 results have already come in. The Tories have won their first seat from Labour (Kingswood). The national picture is still unclear, although there is some evidence that the swing to the Tories in key areas is significantly bigger than the 5.5% swing suggested by the exit poll. Guardian psephologist Lewis Baston says he thinks the Tories are on course for an outright majority.

• Gordon Brown has signalled that he wants to form a coalition. He has said that he wants "strong, stable and principled" government.

• Peter Robinson, the DUP leader and Northern Ireland first minster, has lost in Belfast East. He has signalled he intends to remain first minister in the Stormont assembly, where he still has a seat.

1.24am: Lewis Baston is a brave man. He's calling it for the Tories.

Lewis Baston byline. Photograph: The Guardian

I think the Conservatives have won this outright. The Conservatives are getting swings of 9% or so from Labour in seats as diverse as posh metropolitan Putney, suburban west-country Kingswood and mixed north-eastern Darlington.

1.24am: The exit poll suggested a 5.5% swing to the Tories. But, according to the BBC, the figures from north-east England suggest the swing to the Tories is 8.4% in the region.

1.20am: Here's Lewis Baston on Torbay:

Lewis Baston byline. Photograph: The Guardian

Torbay was thought to be one of the easier Tory targets from the Lib Dems – they had a strong candidate, Marcus Wood, who had done fairly well in 2005, and the Lib Dems had been in disarray in local politics. The slight swing from Conservative to Lib Dem would have reassured many other Lib Dem incumbents in south-west England.

1.18am: In Hackney two Labour candidates, Diane Abbott and Meg Hillier, have submitted an official complaint about people not being able to vote. Apparently 51 people could not vote in one area, after being kept waiting for 45 minutes.

1.16am: Adrian Sanders has held Torbay for the Lib Dems. It was a Tory target, but Sanders won with a swing of 1.1% to the Lib Dems from the Tories.

Gloria de Piero.

Meanwhile, Gloria De Piero, the GMTV political editor who was parachuted into Ashfield, Geoff Hoon's seat, is trailing the Lib Dems, according to the Press Association.

1.10am: Lewis Baston has sent me more about Kingswood, and the national swing.

Lewis Baston byline. Photograph: The Guardian

Kingswood, a suburban area near Bristol, may acquire the sort of iconic status for David Cameron that Birmingham Edgbaston did for Tony Blair in 1997 and Basildon for John Major in 1992. It was the first televised Tory gain of the night in 2010, in a constituency that had been represented by Labour's Roger Berry since 1992. Tory campaigners did have high hopes of a strong swing in the seat, and they were amply justified.

More big swings to the Conservatives in north-east England, in Darlington and North Durham, weighing in at around 9%. The north east was not expected to be a particularly receptive region for David Cameron, particularly after he singled it out as a possible target for public sector cuts, but the Tories are either doing particularly well there, or else outperforming the exit poll by some distance. However, there are not many parliamentary seats there they stand any chance of winning; Tynemouth, and perhaps if they are lucky the rather volatile Stockton South, are the most likely blue blobs to appear on the map of the north east.

1.07am: More on Kingswood. Labour's Roger Berry had a notional majority of 6,145.

The BBC is confirming that the Tories have taken Basildon South (see 12.18am).

1.05am: We've had the first Conservative gain. The Tories have won Kingswood, with a swing of 9.4%. A swing of that size across the country would give Cameron a majority.

1.04am: Matthew Taylor, who has been monitoring the BNP, has sent me this.

Matthew Taylor byline picture. Photograph: Linda Nylind for the Guardian

Labour sources in Stoke, the BNP's second target seat, are also sounding confident and say the far right party may have been be pushed into third or even fourth place.

Gordon Brown and his wife Sarah arrive at the Adam Smith College for the Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath count tonight. Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA

1.02am: Paul Lewis has sent me this from the Brown camp:

Paul Lewis Photograph: Sarah Lee

Brown is about to deliver his speech. Downing Street aides say the PM will call for a "strong, stable and principled government" in times of economic uncertainty – they're saying that is shorthand for a coalition government, not a minority Tory government. It is the first sign from the PM that he will seek a coalition if exit polls are correct.

Northern Ireland's first minister, Peter Robinson, reacts after losing his Belfast East seat to Naomi Long of the Alliance party. Photograph: Peter Muhly/AFP/Getty Images

1.00am: Peter Robinson is talking at the Belfast East count. He has just said that he has a job to do in the assembly and that he will continue to carry on his "important work" there. He seems determined to remain first minster, but this is a serious blow to his authority.

12.57am: Students who were prevented from voting in Sheffield have set up their own Facebook page.

12.55am: My colleague Amelia Gentleman has got the latest from Morley and Outwood, where Ed Balls is hoping to get elected in new seat.

Amelia Gentleman Photograph: Martin Argles for the Guardian

Anthony Calvert, the Conservative candidate who hopes to "castrate Labour" by removing Balls, has arrived for the count. He has had the Who's Who of the Conservative frontbench out campaigning for him over the past few weeks – Cameron twice, George Osborne, Ken Clarke, Theresa May, Dominic Grieve, Michael Gove – an intensity of big hitters quite unheard of previously. It's not yet clear if it will pay off. Calvert says the signs are that the count is very close – which he describes as a victory in itself, given Balls had a notional majority of 8,660. He says economy and immigration are the key issues here. There are a lot of people with BNP rosettes milling around, and their share of the vote will be under scrutiny too when the results are announced around 3am.

12.49am: Peter Robinson, Northern Ireland's first minister, has lost his seat, Belfast East.

Robinson was beaten by the Alliance candidate, Naomi Long, who won the seat with a 22.9% swing. It's the first time the non-sectarian Alliance party (which is allied to the Lib Dems) has won a Westminster seat in Northern Ireland.

12.49am: David Cameron has stopped off at the pub on the way to his count. He's at the New Inn in Witney, according to the Press Association.

12.47am: Gordon Brown won't have to resign if the exit poll turns out to be accurate. You don't have to take my word for it. Lord Wilson, the former cabinet secretary, spelt it out last night in a private lecture to students at Emmanuel College, Cambridge, where he is Master. I've been sent a copy of his comments.

On Friday Mr Brown will remain prime minister until either he resigns or he loses a vote of confidence which would be on the Queen's speech ... Nick Clegg and I think Cameron are disputing this – and they're wrong. They're wrong for the very good reason that Mr Brown is prime minister. You can't change it; it's a fact. The Queen asked him to be prime minister, and until he resigns, he still is prime minister. We don't elect a prime minister in this country ... All anyone elects is their MP, and it's the MPs who decide who they will give their backing to as prime minister. That is the decisive factor.

12.44am: Peter Robinson, the first minister of Northern Ireland, has lost in Belfast East, according to the BBC.

12.41am: More from Heidi Stephens, my colleague with the TV remote. She doesn't seem to be having a good evening.

Heidi Stephens byline. Photograph: Guardian

I keep turning over to ITV for an alternative view, and then quickly heading back to the BBC. Alistair Stewart just came out with "it's great that people are using their Twitters and their Facebooks", suggesting he's not entirely au fait with the world of social media. His tie also clashes horribly with the set, which appears to have been recycled from 1980s A Question Of Sport ... Over on C4, we're back to Come Dine with MP, where Rod Liddle is cooking. There is talk of everyone eating dinner naked, which has me lunging for the remote control. I have no desire to see the television debut of "Little Rod", thanks, or a Major-eye view of Edwina Currie ... Swiftly over to BBC1, where the BBC Shiny CGI Budget appears to include virtual dominoes. It's like the BBC Department of Electoral Metaphors had their creative brainstorm after too many Haribos.

12.38am: My colleague Severin Carrell says Labour seem to be doing well in Scotland.

Severin Carrell. Photograph: Frank Baron/The Guardian

Labour appears to be enjoying a strong showing in Scotland, with early indications from a number of key marginal seats suggesting that Labour has made expected gains and held several seats under intense pressure from the Liberal Democrats and Tories.

With most results still several hours away, the main theme emerging is that while Labour support has slumped in England, it has hardened in Scotland – more than expected by the Lib Dems and Tories.

Tory sources are conceding that few seats in Scotland are expected to change: code for the Tories making few if any gains. The Lib Dems were widely expected to win several seats from Labour in central Scotland, but sources from across the parties in Edinburgh predict that Labour will hold Edinburgh North and Leith despite an intense campaign by the Lib Dems.

12.36am: Our reporter Aidan Jones has been to a polling station in Hackney, east London, where 150 people were unable to cast their ballot when the polls closed. He's come back with this video of the aftermath.

As you can see, police had to be called.

12.34am: Earlier (see 11.26pm) Ken Clarke said that bond traders would start betting on the outcome of the election at 1am. I thought he was referring to traders in the far east. But a reader has been in touch to say that the UK LIFFE market is opening at 1am for traders to react to the election. My colleague Dan Roberts is blogging it.

12.31am: More from Sunderland. My colleague Martin Wainwright was at the count and sent me this.

Martin Wainwright byline. Photograph: Linda Nylind

A huge roar of relief as much as real pleasure erupted as Labour won the first seat to declare with a healthy-sounding majority of 11,000 – although this is far below the 17,300 predicted from 2005's result in the new constituency of Houghton and Sunderland South. The winner, Bridget Phillipson, is a Lois Lane-alike marked for higher things by Labour. Another doughty daughter of Sunderland, Kate Adie, watched her brief and to-the-point victory speech ("This area needs a Labour government") from the media pen. Adie's presence, evoking many a frontline report on the BBC in times past, chimes with Sunderland's extraordinary prowess at handling elections. Staff who ran tonight's meticulous operation – only just missing their target of the first result in 40 minutes (it was 53) – have been seconded to Bosnia, Cambodia and Ukraine to help with elections there.

12.25am: Latest summary:

• Three results are now in, all from Sunderland. Labour has held them all, including Sunderland South, a seat targeted by the Tories. In all three seats there were swings to the Tories, of 8.4%, 11.5% and 4.8%. Taken together, this is roughly equivalent to a swing of 8%, which would just give David Cameron a majority. The exit poll suggests Cameron won't get a majority.

• The Tories are saying that Gordon Brown will have no right to try to form a government if the exit poll turns out to be accurate. But, constitutionally, he remains prime minister until defeated in a vote in the Commons. Ministers are making it clear that they would like to form a coalition with the Lib Dems. Jim Murphy has floated the idea explicity.

• Hundreds of people have been prevented from voting in constituencies across the country. In some seats this could result in a legal challenge to the result. The government has blamed the Electoral Commission.

12.18am: My colleague Matthew Taylor says the Tories are expect to win South Basildon and East Thurrock (which is 17th on their target list).

Matthew Taylor byline picture. Photograph: Linda Nylind for the Guardian

The talk at the fabled "Essex man" seat of Basildon, which has gone the way of the winning party since 1974, is that the Tories are are likely to take it for the first time in 13 years. Labour sources say only way they will hold on is with a big personal vote for Angela Smith.

The Tories are quietly predicting they have done enough to get over the line. The result is expected between 1-1.30am.

12.13am: The polling fiasco seems to be getting more and more serious. In Chester Labour are complaining about 600 people not being allowed to vote, even though they were on the register. That could be significant because Labour has a notional majority of just 973 in the city.

There have been problems in Sheffield too. I'm told that students in Nick Clegg's constituency (many of whom were expected to vote Lib Dem) were also prevented from voting.

The Electoral Commission has said that it will undertake a "thorough review" of what has happened.

12.07am: Ministers like Lord Mandelson and Harriet Harman have hinted that they would like to see a Labour-Lib Dem coalition. Now Jim Murphy, the Scottish Secretary, has explicitly proposed the idea.

The truth is this is an election that none of us could predict as it unfolded and even this evening is entirely unpredictable. I think all options are still open, including for example a Labour-Liberal coalition.

12.03am: Lewis Baston has been looking at the third Sunderland result. Here's his verdict:

Lewis Baston byline. Photograph: The Guardian

Sunderland Central was the first successful Labour defence of a semi-marginal seat, and they held it in some style – in contrast to the huge swing in the two outer Sunderland seats.

Before one gets too hung up on the apparent differences in swing between the Sunderland seats, one should consider the starting point. There have been radical changes in the boundaries in all the Sunderland seats, and the results from each are based on estimates. These are painstakingly combined best guesses, based on local election voting patterns in the areas involved. It is possible that local elections are a misleading guide in some areas. Perhaps more people voted Tory in the outer areas of Sunderland in 2005, and fewer in the inner areas, than we thought. Taking Sunderland as a whole, it looks like the swing was around 8% ie a little bit more than we thought from the exit poll.

12.03am: The Tories are going to win Battersea, according to the Press Association news agency. That's not much of a surprise. It's an ultra-marginal, and ninth on the Tory target list, where the Tories need a swing of just 0.41% to win.

11.59pm: David Miliband has just told the BBC that "a massive amount of Ashcroft money" went into Sunderland Central.

Like other members of the cabinet, he gave a clear hint that he would like to see a coalition.

If no party has an absolute majority in the House of Commons, then no party has a moral right to a monopoly of power.

11.55pm: My colleague Henry McDonald has some bad news for David Cameron from Northern Ireland:

Henry McDonald.

Lady (Sylvia) Hermon is expected to be re-elected by a landslide in North Down. She rejected David Cameron's overtures to join the Ulster Unionist-Conservative alliance and her victory will be seen as a major setback for the joint party project. Hermon left the UUP in protest over the Tory link-up and stood tonight as an independent candidate. Her majority tonight is also expected to be higher the one she enjoyed in 2005.

Henry also says that a count for two constituencies has been temporarily cancelled due to a terrorist bomb alert. "Within the last few minutes police officers started moving politicians, activists and electoral staff out of the Templemore Sports Centre. The sports hall was holding counts for Foyle constituency which takes in Derry City as well as East Derry."

Photograph: Suzanne Plunkett/Reuters

11.50pm: George Osborne told the BBC that Brown would have to resign.

I do not think there's any question of Labour being able to continue following this massive rejection of the Labour party. The Conservative party has gained more seats than at any time since 1931.

11.48pm: The swing to the Tories in Sunderland Central was 4.8%. We've had three results in now, all from Sunderland. There was a swing to the Tories in all three seats, but they varied considerably. The swings were 8.4%, 11.5% and 4.8%.

All three Labour MPs elected in the Sunderland seats are women.

11.43pm: Here's the result from Sunderland Central. Labour won comfortably, with a majority of just under 5,000. That's a disappointment for the Tories.

11.41pm: Lewis Baston has been looking at the Washington and Sunderland West result (see 11.30pm).

Lewis Baston byline. Photograph: The Guardian

There are only six safer Labour seats than Washington and Sunderland West. It consists of the working-class New Town of Washington, plus some outer estates of Sunderland city itself – it could almost be called "Nissan Central" because its economy is dominated by a modern car factory. The 2010 result shows a huge fall in the Labour vote (down 15 points) and a big rise in the Tory vote (7%). We need to see if the result from Sunderland Central shows another big swing or not – a swing on this scale would see it being on the brink of being a Tory gain and probably indicate a comfortable overall Tory majority and an exit polling disaster, and also indicate that there was nothing wrong with the estimates of the boundary changes in Sunderland.

Ballot papers are counted at Adam Smith College in the Kirkcaldy constituency of Gordon Brown tonight. Brown Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

11.38pm: My colleague Paul Lewis is in Gordon Brown's Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath constituency. He says the result in the seat is expected around 12:45am.

Paul Lewis Photograph: Sarah Lee

Those who have spent time with the prime minister today say he has spent much of the evening alone, drafting speeches for all electoral eventualities. Around 9pm, I'm told he ate a lamb stew cooked by his wife, Sarah, and retired to bed for what aides described as "much needed" sleep. Not sure if I believe he is really asleep. But if it was solitude Brown was looking for, he did not secure it at home. The BBC has rented the front garden of the adjacent house (judging by the "Vote Conservative" placard on their lawn, his neighbours were not Labour supporters). A satellite TV van was parked in the drive, and scaffolding had been erected to ensure the cameras had an unimpeded view over the fence, to his front door.

11.34pm: Caroline Lucas is on course to win Brighton Pavilion for the Greens, according to my colleague at the count, Peter Walker.

Peter Walker Photograph: guardian.co.uk

The chair of the local Greens, Matt Follett, tells me they're "quietly confident" of making Caroline Lucas the party's first-ever MP. He claims their on-the-ground organisation today was actually bigger and better than the main parties'. I guess that's what you can do by concentrating so much on a small number of seats. I've tried to ask the Tories, the other party seen as in with a good shout here, for their view, but they're not talking.

11.33pm: Here's a note I've been sent by the Tories. It's pure spin, but I'm going to post it in full because it will probably be the Tory "line to take" for the evening:

- if exit poll figs are correct, this is an utter rejection of Labour; Labour have lost this election;

- let's be clear: this is an excellent result for the Conservatives;

- it's a historic result - the most seats gained by Conservatives in any election since 1931 - more than Mrs Thatcher in 1979;

- it's the biggest swing to Conservatives since 1931;

- as David Cameron has said, we will do what we can to provide stable government;

- if this poll is correct, it would provide a basis to govern.

- Labour can't possibly expect to continue in government after this humiliating rejection.

- Having lost 100 seats, they are insulting the voters to suggest otherwise.

11.30pm: We've just has the second result, Washington and Sunderland West. It's a safe Labour seat and Labour won. But the swing to the Tories was 11.5%, which would easily give David Cameron a majority if repeated across the country. It would be the largest swing since 1945.

11.28pm: At Cif at the polls, Tom Clark has been looking at the Sunderland result and Martin Kettle has a warning about exit polls.

11.26pm: Kenneth Clarke has just told Sky that at 1am bond traders (in the far east, presumably) will start betting on the prospect of the UK having a strong government.

Asked about electoral reform, he said that the Conservative party and Labour were both coalitions and that they contained politicians who would not stick together if they were operating under a PR system.

Clarke has also been listening to Mandelson.

Peter with his usual cunning has already been making noises that he hopes will seduce the Liberal Democrats to keep Gordon Brown in power.

Clarke said that Brown should not be allowed to stay on. He said that Brown would be in a weaker position than Heath in 1974.

Like Harman, Clarke also took a pop at the Electoral Commission. It was "fairly useless", he said.

11.22pm: Asked about the voting chaos on Radio 4, Harman insisted that it was not the government's fault. She said that it was a matter for returning officers and for the Electoral Commission – ie blame them!

11.19pm: My colleague Steven Morris is in Birmingham, where Harriet Harman's husband Jack Dromey is expecting to be elected as MP for Birmingham Erdington. Steve has sent me this:

Dromey says the Labour vote is holding up there but he says there will be "setbacks" for the party across the country. He repeats several times: "This is not a Conservative country. The Conservatives are not getting the mandate they want."

Labour's Bridget Phillipson is declared MP for Houghton and Sunderland South tonight. Photograph: Gareth Copley/PA

11.17pm: Latest summary:

• The first result, in Houghton and Sunderland South, shows an 8.4% swing to the Conservatives, which would give David Cameron a majority.

• But the revised exit poll suggests that the Tories are on course for 305 seats. Labour ministers are still hinting that they would like to form a "strong and stable" coalition with the Lib Dems.

• In many areas, people have been unable to vote despite turning up before 10pm.

11.12pm: The BBC says the exit poll figures have been revised. (The 10pm figures were based on figures collected earlier in the day; the figures were revised as the late numbers came in.) The new figures are:

Conservatives: 305

Labour: 255

Lib Dems: 61

Others: 29

11.10pm: Here are some extracts from a Press Association report about people being unable to vote:

Voters in Hackney, east London, were turned away from a polling station in Triangle Road after some had been forced to queue for more than an hour and a half, they said.

And police were called to a polling station in Manwood Road, Lewisham, south London, where around 300 people had yet to vote by 10pm, Scotland Yard said.

There were reports of similar situations in other parts of the country.

In Hackney, where residents were voting for their MP, councillors and the borough's elected mayor, at least 150 people were still queuing when the polls closed, according to Andrew Boff, Conservative mayoral candidate.

Ballot boxes are run in during the Houghton and Sunderland election count at Sunderland tennis centre earlier tonight. Photograph: Gareth Copley/PA

11.05pm: Lewis Baston has been looking at the Houghton and Sunderland result:

The result from Houghton and Sunderland South makes two things clear. The Lib Dems had been shown picking up strongly in north-east England in some polls during the campaign, but there is no sign of that from this result. Their share of the vote is even slightly down on 2005. It is much too early to say, but this adds some weight to the exit poll's low number for the Lib Dems. The other point to come over is a very high swing to the Conservatives in a working-class, north-eastern seat – 8%. This suggests either that the Conservatives are doing better across the board than the exit poll found, or that, despite all the speculation and Ashcroft money, the swing is actually fairly uniform. We should be slightly cautious, though, because the boundary changes were particularly radical in the Sunderland area. Houghton and Sunderland South is a newly created constituency with all new candidates, so the swing figures will be pretty approximate.

11.04pm: FiveThirtyEight.com, the American polling website, has taken the exit polls figures and adjusted their own projections. FiveThirtyEight think David Cameron is on course for a majority.

If the exit pollsters are using something more advanced like the PoliticsHome model to project their results – which accounts for Scottish results and gives Conservatives some extra credit in marginal districts – we've generally been about 20 seats higher on the Conservative totals than their model on the same numbers. So that would imply Conservatives at ~327 seats, almost exactly the 326 they need for the majority.

11.00pm: Peter Kellner, the YouGov president, has just told the BBC that he thinks the Houghton and Sunderland South swing was consistent with the exit poll. "There's nothing here that says our exit poll is wildly wrong," he says.

10.55pm: We've got the first result: Houghton and Sunderland South. Labour have won. Bridget Phillipson is the new MP. Philip Cowley on Radio 4 says that's an 8.4% swing to the Tories. That's bigger than the exit poll suggests, he says.

10.54pm: Henry McDonald says that, if the exit poll is accurate, it's good news for the Democratic Unionists.

Henry McDonald.

If the BBC/ITN/Sky exit poll is correct then the 10 or 11 unionist votes in the House of Commons could be critical over the next few days. While any Ulster Unionists elected to Westminster (not guaranteed tonight by any means!) are wedded to the Tories the Democratic Unionist party will only back David Cameron if they meet their concessions. The DUP's No 1 concession is the protection of the multi-billion pound block grant from London to Northern Ireland. If Cameron needs DUP MPs' support Peter Robinson's party will undoubtedly extract a heavy price.

10.52pm: Heidi Stephens likes the BBC coverage.

Heidi Stephens byline. Photograph: Guardian

It's all kicked off on BBC1, with "silver-haired alternative king of England" (Charlie Brooker's words, not mine) David Dimbleby holding court over a studio packed with enough shiny interactive media and massive video walls to drain the national grid. If my ears did not deceive me, Andrew Neil promised to be speaking to Piers Morgan and Joan Collins later, plus maybe a few surprises. What, more surprising than Joan Collins?

The BBC have just informed us that Nick Clegg and his wife are at home, cooking dinner. I fear there may be a great deal of filler this evening. But still, if things start to drag, we can always turn back to C4 and discuss Brooker's new hair.

By the way, I just heard Dimbleby say that Britain did not want a "pure" Labour government. I missed that quote, but it's telling. The coalition bandwagon is rolling.

Photograph: John G Mabanglo/EPA

10.50pm: Theresa May did not proclaim victory, but Tory HQ seems to be saying that David Cameron has won. They've just sent me this:

Arnie Schwarzenegger calls DC to congratulate him on victory. 'Even though results aren't in we know the Conservatives had a great day'

When did Arnold Schwarzenegger become a UK psephologist?

10.43pm: Labour are negotiating with the Lib Dems now – live on TV. Alan Johnson has on BBC and has just said that he would like to see both parties develop a plan for the alternative vote-plus. Officially Labour is only committed to a referendum on the alternative vote (AV). AV is not proportional. AV-plus is.

Jeremy Paxman has just asked Mandelson who won the election. Mandelson said the public won.

Paxman then asked Theresa May. To my surprise, she did not say the Tories won. But she said there was a clear vote for change.

Paxman suggested that if Brown tried to hang on, it would look like a "coup". Mandelson would not accept this. He said people wanted change, but not under a Conservative government.

10.41pm: Lewis Baston has noticed another quirk in the figures.

Peter Kellner made an interesting point on the BBC, that the swing to the Conservatives was twice as high in Labour marginals where the Labour incumbent was standing down. If true, this is remarkable. In the climate of the expenses crisis in 2009, people were expecting the death of the incumbency factor, because all MPs except a few "saints" were tarred with the same brush and there was a mood of "throw the bums out". We would also expect an election with a large swing between the parties to erase a lot of personal votes and incumbency as a factor, as it did in 1997 when the Tories were kicked out and the high personal standing of some of their MPs in their constituencies counted for nothing. But, if what Kellner says is correct, incumbency looks more important than ever. An unusually large number of Labour MPs in marginal seats retired in the run-up to the election. It would be ironic if the loss of their personal vote was what tipped the balance towards a minority Tory government rather than a Lib-Lab coalition (or if the exit poll is a little off-beam, the difference between the Tories having a majority or not).

10.40pm: We're hearing a lot of reports about problems with voting. Labour sources have complained about people not being able to vote at some polling stations in Milton Keynes, Sheffield and Newcastle. Harman has just told Sky that she saw people queuing outside a polling station in her constituency just before 10pm.

10.37pm: Summary: An exit poll put the Tories on 307 seats, 52 seats ahead of Labour but short of a majority. Lord Mandelson has suggested that, if the poll is accurate, Gordon Brown will try to form a "stable" government with the Lib Dems.

10.35pm: Tim Montgomerie, editor of ConservativeHome, has posted this:

Contrary to the exit poll, which has the Tories 19 short, we are expecting a good night for the Conservatives; probably a small working majority. David Cameron will become prime minister. The party will make deep inroads into Labour territory but will not do well against the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dems may come third, winning 100 seats in total. The exit poll has the Lib Dems only on 59 seats.

10.31pm: My colleague Helen Pidd is in Luton. She thinks we won't be seeing Esther Rantzen in the Commons.

I'm in the ritz-free surroundings of the Luton Regional Leisure Centre to see if Esther Rantzen can win Luton South. The buzz on the badminton court is that turnout was very high, so the result could be later than 3am as originally forecast. Betting types here say Esther will just about get her deposit back (that's the £500 she'll get for winning 5% of the vote) but not a seat in parliament. That's life, eh?

10.30pm: Some spin from Tory HQ

Labour are on course to lose the most seats since 1931.

10.30pm: Jackie Ashley has reacted to the exit poll at Cif at the polls.

10.28pm: My colleague Allegra Stratton has been getting reaction to the exit poll from the Lib Dem camp.

The Liberal Democrats were bullish after they appeared to have massively underperformed in the first exit poll of the night putting them four short of the number of seats they currently hold in the Houses of Parliament. However, on seeing the exit polls, a senior Lib Dem suggested they were waiting to see the share of the vote, which they said might better reflect what they believe will eventually show to have been variation in national swing, which they said would show that they were closer. "We had been talking in advance – this exit poll was set up for a two-party-race basis and of course it isn't really. In close elections exit polls tend to be wrong anyway, and now we are clear that this wasn't set up for an election of this kind. We've been talking for a few hours how it was going to be wrong. They select which seats they go to and if they go to Lab-Con seats then of course it's not going to reflect our surge." Another source said that the postal votes – which traditionally show a larger proportion having voted Lib Dem – and it has only three Lab-Lib Dem marginals.

10.20pm: Michael Gove has told Radio 4 that, in the era of 24-hour news, Gordon Brown would be under more pressure to resign immediately than Edward Heath was when he lost the February election in 1974. Heath, of course, tried to hang on, as did Baldwin in 1923. From what we've heard from Mandelson and Harman, it sounds as if Brown is going to do the same. If the exit poll is right, and Cameron expects to be in Downing Street by tomorrow night, he may well be disappointed.

10.19pm: We are streaming the BBC's election night results programme, presented by David Dimbleby, at the top of this page. If you can't see the video player above, please manually refresh this page. It will then stay playing while the text updates every minute.

10.17pm: My colleague Martin Wainwright is in Sunderland (see 9.26pm). He's sent me this.

Sunderland's Tenni Centre is buzzing with half an hour to go until the ballot boxes arrive and – incredibly – only another 40 minutes after that until the result is declared in Houghton and Sunderland South. That is the plan anyway, and Sunderland has a proud reputation of ultra-speedy counting to uphold. If young meteor Bridget Phillipson fails to get a handsome majority then it will look like a desperate night for Labour. A much more interesting test comes with the second of the city's three seats to declare (that's according to the plan; could be different if the result is close), Sunderland Central, which David Cameron has called one of his party's "wild card" possibilities. It certainly has a strong Tory candidate in Lee Martin, leader of the resurgent Conservative group on the city council which polled better than Labour in the constituency's local council wards. That counting miracle now. Well, Sunderland basically hires an Oompa-Loompa-style army of counters and then organises the arrival of ward ballot boxes according to a Great Scheme of the kind which Baldrick was always proposing to Blackadder, but a lot more effective. As I write, most of the counters – bank tellers, shop staff and other deft-handed applicants – are sitting expectantly at their tables, party workers are arriving and, outside in the drizzle and very chilly twilight, knockers-up are frantically trying to harvest every last vote in.

10.15pm: Lewis Baston, the Guardian psephologist, has been looking at the exit polls figures.

Rumours swirled before 10pm that the Conservatives were doing better than expected and had perhaps benefited from a late swing in their favour. No evidence of this from the exit poll, which is towards the top end of what Labour could be hoping for at 255 seats. The Lib Dems are projected at 59, which seems much too low, but it is difficult to call their seats accurately and it was the one significant error on the otherwise highly accurate exit poll in 2005. Exit polls are not infallible by any means; they have got it right in the last three elections but famously came a cropper in 1992 when the projection was for a closely-balanced hung parliament but the outcome was a Tory majority of 21. The poll was not too bad in measuring the share of the vote then, but there were a number of bad calls in terms of specific seats. The 2010 projection may alter a bit as the late data trickles in (there were still queues at some polling stations at 10pm), but a result other than a minority Conservative government would be a surprise on the basis of the 10pm poll findings. Politicians were already talking about electoral reform, and if the Lib Dems are really on 59 seats despite winning something like 25-27% of the vote, the discussion can only become more urgent.

10.13pm: Lord Mandelson has just been on Radio 4 saying that Brown would have the right to try to form a government if no party achieves a majority. So, Harman and Mandelson are both signalling that Brown is not going to budge.

Interestingly, I don't think the BBC described the result as the Tories "winning". Watch out for a monumental war of spin. The Tories will declare victory, because that will boost their argument that David Cameron should be entitled to form a government. Labour will say that no party has won. As Martin Kettle explained in a blog yesterday, in a hung parliament situation these considerations could become immensely important.

10.10pm: Harriet Harman has just told the BBC that the country needs a "strong" government. She seems to be suggesting that Britain needs a Labour-Lib Dem coalition.

I think it might be time to take a look at my hung parliament reading list (see 8.18pm).

10.08pm: David Dimbleby is being very hesitant about this. If these figures are right, Cleggmania has achieved nothing – and the Lib Dems (who won 62 seats in 2005) have actually lost seats.

Under these figures, Labour and the Lib Dems would outnumber the Tories – just. David Cameron would declare victory and demand Gordon Brown's resignation. But Brown would be within his rights to hang on, and to try to get a Queen's speech through parliament with the support of the Lib Dems and other minor parties. Nick Clegg, who has said that the party that wins will have a mandate to govern but who would be more likely to support a Labour Queen's speech than a Tory one, would have a dilemma.

10.00pm: Here is the exit poll:

Conservatives: 307 seats

Labour: 255

Lib Dems: 59

Others: 29

There would be a hung parliament, with the Tories 19 seats short of a majority.

9.59pm: My colleague Heidi Stephens is monitoring the TV coverage tonight. She's sent me this.

C4 is kicking tonight's telethon with it's Alternative Election Night, demonstrating that politics can indeed be funny, even if Jimmy Carr can't. Currently I'm watching Come Dine With MP (see what they did there?), which is all a bit Comic Relief, with the added horror of watching Edwina Currie, Derek Hatton, Brian Paddick and Rod Liddle in the same room, eating. Essentially it's Rod Liddle being gratuitously rude about everything, and Derek Hatton banging on about how working class he is while tossing back champagne over his Berry Sorbet. Which, according to Rod Liddle, sounds like "the Tory candidate for Frome". No, Rod, Annunziata Rees-Mogg sounds like the Tory candidate for Frome, and the reason I know this is because it's down the road from my house. Other things I have learned – Edwina Currie has a truly ghastly sofa and Brian Paddick is addicted to cream. Who knew.

9.57pm: The BBC's election programme is starting. Exit poll at 10pm.

9.56pm: I'm told that if the spread betting figures have been moving in the last hour (see 9.50pm), that might be because punters with knowledge of the exit polls have been cleaning up. Apparently this has happened before.

9.50pm: Vincent Moss has been looking at the latest spread betting figures and he's tweeted this.

Sporting Index now putting Tories at 325-330. Mid-point is JUST enough for an overall majority in the House of Commons. ge2010#

9.48pm: You've got just under 15 minutes left to vote. What happens if you're still in a queue when the clock strikes 10? A colleague has called the Electoral Commission and they say that the last time a ballot paper can be issued is 10pm. So if you have one in your hand you'll be able to go into the booth and post it in the box. If you haven't got your hands on the ballot paper by 10pm then you won't be able to vote. Bad luck.

9.45pm: Cif at the polls are running a live comment blog this evening, with contributions from Jackie Ashley, Martin Kettle, Anne Perkins and Julian Glover.

9.36pm: My colleague Henry McDonald has sent me this from Belfast.

To bolster hardline republican support in South Armagh, Sinn Féin today enlisted the support of the convicted IRA sniper Michael Carragher. Carragher, who was captured by the SAS during a covert operation in 1997, was seen outside a polling station in Crossmaglen, working for the Sinn Féin MP Conor Murphy. His journey from being one of the British government's most wanted gunmen to an election worker personifies the republican movement's shift from "armed struggle" to constitutional politics. His presence at the polling station is also a bulwark against the growing presence of republican dissidents opposed to the current political compromise in Northern Ireland. The message is that many of those who waged war against Britain, as Carragher did during the Troubles, now support the peace process. Meanwhile, there has been a relatively high turnout in East Belfast, the home of the first minister, Peter Robinson. Ulster Unionist tallymen told the Guardian they believed more than 60% had bothered to vote in the constituency – significantly higher than the number who went to polling stations in last year's Euro elections.

9.26pm: We're expecting to get the results from Sunderland before anywhere else.

They're proud of getting the result out first in Sunderland and, according to Sky, even print the ballot papers on 80g paper instead of 100g paper to make the count faster.

But will the swing there tell us anything about the national trend? My colleague Tom Clark has been looking at the figures and concludes ... that it's hard to say. In 1992, the Sunderland result showed Labour were in trouble, but in 1987 it suggested the party was doing much better than it eventually did nationally.

9.19pm: While David Cameron has been chopping logs, Gordon Brown has been having a nap. According to the Press Association, he went for a snooze at 8.30pm. And I thought he never slept!

PA also says Brown and his wife, Sarah, had lamb stew for supper.

9.15pm: Here's a picture of the queue at a polling station in Stoke Newington (see 9.07pm).

9.12pm: According to the Press Association, David Cameron spent two hours at home today chopping logs. Sounds very Gladstone. Is he trying to appeal to the Lib Dems?

9.07pm: There's been a lot of evidence pointing to a high turnout today. Here are a couple of tweets on the subject:

@rjwood: Voted. 45 min queues at the stoke newington polling station. #ukelection @uberuberrich: Huge queue outside polling station in Stoke Newington. Definitely get the impression people really care this time round

My colleague Simon Rogers has been looking at the data on turnout since the war.

9.01pm: It seems the police aren't taking any chances at the Barking count.

8.35pm: Anthony Wells, at UK Polling Report, has got a good description of how tonight's exit poll will work:

Interviewers stop every nth person coming out the polling station and give them a mock ballot paper to fill in, if someone refuses they are not replaced by another person. Every hour, the papers are collected and phoned back to HQ, where they are weighted for differential response rates and crunched by people like John Curtice, Rob Ford, Clive Payne and Steve Fisher (if you were watching the BBC's campaign show last night, Steve was the chap demolishing the myth of bad weather helping the Tories!). The first result comes out at 10pm on the dot, with a final projection at 11pm or so. The aim of the exit poll is to predict the seat totals, not the share of the vote, and the team will try to work out if there are different shifts in support in different types of seat. The call is based on a probability of each seat going one way or the other, all summed up to make a seat total. In terms of past accuracy, the exit poll last time got the Labour majority exactly right (though they were slightly off with Conservative and Lib Dem seats). Unless something goes terribly wrong, we should have a broad idea of the result a couple of minutes after 10 o'clock.



But Alex Barker, at the FT's Westminster blog, has produced seven reasons why tonight's poll might be wrong.

John Curtice and Colin Firth, who led the team in 2005, have said that they "fully acknowledge that getting the headline forecast exactly right owed much to luck". They'll need bags of it this evening.

8.26pm: My colleague Matthew Taylor has sent me some news about the anti-BNP campaign in Barking:

Campaigners encouraging the anti-BNP vote in Barking say turnout seems to be much higher than usual. "Everyone seems to know that this is very very important," says one volunteer. Another reports BNP intimidation outside the polling station in Eastbury ward, which she says she has reported to the returning officer. Organisers of the anti-BNP campaign say they have had around 150 volunteers so far, but don't know if they will manage to keep Nick Griffin out.

8.18pm: While we wait until the excitement really begins, there's time to read up on what will happen in the event of a hung parliament. For those interested, here's a hung parliament reading list:

• Cabinet Office's draft guidelines: A guide to the conventions, issued by Sir Gus O'Donnell earlier this year.

• Hung parliaments (pdf): A 26-page report from the House of Commons library, with history of hung parliaments in the UK and guide to the conventions.

• Democrat Audit's 'Governing without Majorities' briefing (pdf): A 10-page analysis, critical of the current arrangements.

• Armstrong memo (pdf): A memo written by Robert Armstrong on the unsuccessful attempt by Edward Heath to strike a deal with the Liberals in February 1974.

• Institute for Government 'Making Minority Government Work' report (pdf): A 110-page survey, with recommendations and an account of how minority government has worked in Canada, New Zealand and Scotland.

• Institute for Government briefing: An 18-page presentation on hung parliaments.

8pm: Robin Cook put it best. On the back of the hardback edition of his Cook biography, John Kampfner quotes these words from the late Labour giant:

The two most exciting sights and noises are these: first, the colour and noise of a large field coming into a steeplechase fence, which is a tremendous spectacle; the other is the clang of the tin ballot boxes as they hit the gymnasium floor coming off the backs of the trucks on election night.

I don't agree with Cook about the large smelly animals, but I'm with him all the way about election night. Jonathan Freedland has written a nice piece today, headlined "Why I love polling day", and I wish I had written it myself because I feel much the same.

You don't need to know a huge amount about history to realise that there is something quite glorious about 45 million people deciding who is going to lead them, not with violence, but with scraps of paper and stubby pencils.

But enough waffle. Who's going to win? The BBC's Martha Kearney has had a steer. Here are two posts that she's put up recently on Twitter.

Lab campaign source tells they think 310-320 for Cons; 280 for Lab. 71% turnout Senior Tory tells me they have small overall majority.

Martha's figures seem implausible – if the Tories got 310 seats and Labour 280, the Lib Dems would actually be losing seats – but she's not the only person suggesting there could be a narrow Tory win on Twitter. Adam Boulton says that's the view of the "pols" (politicians).

Good Evening. Under 3 hrs until polls close and the exit poll. V exciting. Pols say narrow Tory majority, polls say hung.

Boulton mentioned the polls. Nine organisations have produced final figures, and they all suggest a Tory lead, ranging from nine points to four points. Here are the figures:

Populus: Con 37, Lab 28, Lib Dem 27 – Con lead nine

ComRes: Con 37, Lab 28, Lib Dem 28 – Con lead nine

Opinium: Con 35, Lab 27, Lib Dem 26 – Con lead eight

ICM: Con 36, Lab 28, Lib Dem 26 – Con lead eight

YouGov: Con 35, Lab 28, Lib Dem 28 – Con lead seven

Angus Reid: Con 36, Lab 24, Lib Dem 29 – Con lead seven

Harris: Con 35, Lab 29, Lib Dem 27 – Con lead six

TNS BMRB: Con 33, Lab 27, Lib Dem 29 – Con lead four

Ipsos Mori: Con 36, Lab 29, Lib Dem 27 – Con lead seven

There's more on the polls at UK Polling Report.

I'll be blogging now throughout the night. We'll get our first proper sense of who's right at 10pm, when we get the exit poll.