NJ Weather: What you need to know about the third nor'easter

More snow will be falling throughout the Jersey Shore overnight, threatening to slicken and slow this morning's commute.

The National Weather Service's latest forecast expected 2 to 3 inches of snow for most of Monmouth and Ocean counties from the imminent coastal storm.

But as with any nor'easter, the snowfall prediction is still very much fuzzy.

There's an equal chance, according to NWS forecasts, that eastern Monmouth and coastal Ocean counties were going to get just a dusting of snow as there is that those locations get 6 inches.

It could be worse; considerably so: Much of New England is facing a foot or more of snow from this same storm. Boston could get 2 feet, according to the forecast.

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The entire Shore area is under a winter weather watch through 10 a.m. today, when the snowfall is expected to cease here.

The snowfall will be at its heaviest between 1 and 7 a.m.

The NWS is cautioning that roads will become hazardous because of blowing snow. In addition, coastal communities should brace for high winds and tidal flooding.

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When will it start?

How much snow should we expect?

What's a reasonable worst-case scenario?

What are the odds we get more than 2 inches?

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Steve DiMartino, a meteorologist who runs NYNJPAweather.com, said he believes no more than 2 inches of snow will fall with the coming nor'easter.

“In my opinion, this is a textbook situation," he said on Sunday. “New Jersey really misses the brunt of it, but New England really gets walloped.”

Winds along the coast are DiMartino's greatest concerns with this storm. He said 15 to 30 mph sustained winds with 40 mph gusts will raise wave heights 1 to 3 feet higher than astronomical high tides.

The animation below (made from NWS charts) shows winds speeds in knots – 1 kts equals 1.15 mph, so 20 kts equals 23 mph, 40 kts equals 46 mph and so on.

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Both DiMartino and the National Weather Service warned that tidal flooding is likely to affect the coast and low-lying areas. The weather service has issued a small craft advisory and expects ocean waves between 7 to 10 feet.

This is the third coastal storm to threaten the Shore in the last 11 days.

The first storm whipped winds and slush on Monmouth and Ocean counties while the second effectively shut down the state with more than 2 feet of snow in northern New Jersey.

With the second nor'easter, which bore down on much of New Jersey last week, heavy snow downed power lines and trees. More than 100,000 customers with Jersey Central Power & Light lost electricity. Thousands of JCP&L customers in Monmouth County saw their homes go dark; fewer customers in Ocean County experienced the same.

In the days since that storm, utility workers labored to return power to affected customers.

As of Monday evening, nearly every JCP&L customer had power in Monmouth County, according to the company's outage map. Just one customer was without power in Upper Freehold, Freehold Borough and Colts Neck. Two customers lacked power in Freehold Township and Marlboro, according to the same outage map.

It was largely the same picture in Ocean County. One customer was without power in Jackson, Plumsted, Manchester, Lakewood and Seaside Park, according to the outage map, and two customers had no electricity in Toms River.

DiMartino said no other storms in the Atlantic are headed for New Jersey, so this may be the end of nor'easter season here.

“Patterns usually come in three storms," said DiMartino. "This will probably be the last one."

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Amanda Oglesby: @OglesbyAPP; 732-557-5701; aoglesby@gannettnj.com