WILD excitement greeted Pope Francis as he touched down in Rio de Janeiro on July 22nd. Brazil’s 123m Roman Catholics are doubly happy: firstly that the new Pope is making his maiden foreign trip to their country, and secondly because Francis, formerly known as Jorge Mario Bergoglio, is the first Latin American (Argentine) Pope. Nonetheless, the celebrations are more muted than in the past. Catholicism, which once had a near-monopoly on Latin American souls, is a waning force all over the region. Why are Latin Americans drifting away from Rome? Latin America is still the world’s biggest bastion of Catholicism. About 40% of the world’s Roman Catholics live there. Brazil has the most; Mexico, smaller but more devout, is not far behind, with 93m. Mexico City’s Basilica of Our Lady the Virgin of Guadalupe vies with St Peter’s in Rome as the world’s most-visited Catholic church. But faith is fading. In 1970, 96% of Mexicans and 92% of Brazilians said they were Catholic. By 2010 the figures were 83% and 65%. In Central America the church’s decline is stronger still: its share has slipped below half in Honduras and is not far behind in El Salvador and Nicaragua.

Atheism, once virtually unheard of in the region, is now merely eccentric. But the main reason for Catholicism’s decline is the rise of other Christian brands. Protestantism claims 22% of Brazilian hearts, up from 5% in 1970 (most of that increase can be attributed to miracle-working Pentecostal churches). Part of the success is due to clever marketing: Central America’s feel-good evangelical mega-churches have growing television audiences as well as packed weekly congregations. They have been successful fishers of men in the countryside, where state services are scarce and evangelical charitable work is lapped up. During school holidays Central America teems with do-gooding yanqui Christian youths, flown in for a fortnight of latrine-digging. Many evangelicals also take a more forgiving line on social matters, where ever more Latin Americans are ignoring the teachings of the Catholic church. (More than half of Brazilian women in their late 20s cohabit with a partner to whom they are not married. As for contraception, Mexico’s birth rate is on course to sink below that of the United States.) The poor handling of child-abuse cases has hardly bolstered the Catholic church’s authority to lecture about what ought to go on in the bedroom.

Can Rome win back its flock? Pope Francis is taking a more hands-on approach than some of his predecessors: he is due to visit a Rio favela and hospital, as well as attending two events with young people in Copacabana. In Brazil the Catholic “charismatic movement”, whose handsome, extrovert priests have topped bookshops’ best-seller lists as well as the pop-music charts, is making some progress in connecting with young people. Meanwhile the Catholic church in El Salvador has set up its own television channel, which over Christmas features presenters in Santa hats. Don’t be surprised if Pope Francis, already known for his tango skills, can’t resist an impromptu samba session on the beach.