Political anniversaries in China are big deals. This year -- the 40th anniversary of the start of China's economic reform -- is no exception. Unfortunately, for the ruling Chinese Communist Party, an occasion meant to celebrate its achievements has been marked with recriminations and foreboding about the future.

The reform era, launched by Deng Xiaoping in 1978, is over. Nearly all Deng's policies have now been reversed. Instead of opening to the world, China has embraced economic nationalism while market-oriented reform has ground to a halt. Politically, collective leadership has yielded to strongman rule. The presidential term limit, put in place by Deng in 1982, was abolished in March this year to enable Xi Jinping, the incumbent, to serve indefinitely.

The most ominous development in 2018 is the confrontation between China and the United States. The trade war augurs a new era of Sino-American strategic conflict and economic disengagement that could spell disaster for China. When Deng initiated his economic revolution four decades ago, he knew China could not modernize without the help of the West, especially the U.S. Yet, Beijing's foreign policy in recent years has done nothing but to convince Washington that its engagement with China since 1978 has been a costly mistake.

Despite the appearance of Xi's political dominance, we can hear grumblings about his leadership, in particular his handling of U.S.-China relations. On Nov. 18, Long Yongtu, the former vice minister of commerce who negotiated China's entry into the World Trade Organization, publicly rebuked Beijing's management of U.S.-China trade disputes.

Speaking at the 9th Caixin Summit in Beijing, he said China should not have mixed politics with trade, in an apparent dig at Xi's desire to maintain his tough image even at the risk of trade war. He also pointed out that China's decision to retaliate against the U.S. with tariffs on soybeans is "unwise" because China needs to import soybeans.

Long is only the latest senior figure to risk Xi's ire by publicly, albeit obliquely, casting doubts on his policies. The most significant individual who recently voiced similar misgivings is Deng Pufang, Deng Xiaoping's eldest son. Deng Pufang, the honorary chairman of the China Disabled Persons' Federation, delivered a speech at the federation's national conference in mid-September that was immediately censored by the authorities because it was seen as critical of Xi (the speech's content was leaked in late October).

Deng's speech was noteworthy for its veiled but firm rejection of the key pillars of Xi's policies. By calling for "seeking truth from facts ... maintaining a clear head, knowing one's own strengths and weaknesses, and avoiding overestimating oneself and behaving recklessly," Deng implied Xi's policies violated these dictates laid down by Deng Xiaoping.

Deng's critical remarks, however mild and indirect, reflect widespread discontent among elites that Xi's policies are leading China down the wrong path. While it is impossible to know what prompted Deng Pufang to speak out, as a scion of the Deng family he most probably could afford to take the risk. Under Xi's strongman rule, few officials dare to voice dissenting views, for fear this would invite a visit from anti-corruption investigators. As signs of discontent with Xi's policy began to mount this summer, Xi has re-intensified "anti-corruption" efforts to defend his authority. Between July and mid-November, fourteen "tigers" (high-ranking officials) have been arrested on corruption charges, compared to just ten in the first six months of the year.

If the prestige of the Deng family makes Deng Pufang untouchable, others wishing to express dissent have to find more ingenious methods.

Given the repressive atmosphere, those challenging official orthodoxy sugarcoat their criticisms with praises of Deng's strategy and apparently anodyne diagnosis of the systemic flaws holding back China's economic progress.

While the official festivities marking the 40th anniversary of China's reforms deliberately downplay Deng's contribution and highlight Xi's leadership, comments celebrating Deng are widely available on social media.

Most focus on Deng's warnings against challenging the United States' dominance and seeking leadership in the developing world. Implicit in these comments is the criticism that Xi's assertive foreign policy has worsened China's external environment and overextended its limited resources. In an essay posted on social media, the former chief economist of the China Agriculture Bank praised Deng's wisdom in improving ties with the U.S. The author recalled a well-known anecdote. When Deng paid his historic visit to the U.S. in 1979, an aide asked why he was eager to restore relations with Washington. Deng's response was, "All the countries with good relations with the U.S. have developed well these years." The author was obviously hinting that Xi has endangered Deng's diplomatic legacy with his confrontational approach.

Xi's domestic policy has also come under criticism couched in academic jargons. At a Nov. 1 conference celebrating a book by Wu Jinglian, an esteemed economist, several scholars openly voiced views challenging the party line. Wu, 88, pointed out that China's difficulties today are rooted in the lack of market reforms, rule of law, and democracy. Other participants called for restraining the state's power, decentralizing authority and protecting people's rights -- in clear contradiction with Xi's policy of centralizing power and tightening social control. In an essay published in late October by The National School of Development of Peking University, Zhang Weiying, another leading economist, declared that hyping the so-called "China model" -- the idea that state-capitalist development under autocracy is superior to liberal democratic capitalism -- is not only dangerous, but also responsible for the clash between China and the West.

Although such dissenting views are widely shared among China's worried elites, they are not enough to undermine Xi's hold on power on their own.

But this does not mean that Xi can entirely ignore them. Based on his recent actions, it is clear that he is taking at least one strain of criticisms seriously -- that his economic policy is hurting private business. On Nov. 1, Xi met a group of entrepreneurs at a public forum and tried to reassure them with pledges of support.

We will have to wait and see if the Chinese bureaucracy will translate this latest twist in Xi's rhetoric into policy. In the meantime, there is no indication that criticisms of Xi's foreign policy have had an impact. Judging by the recent Sino-American clash at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit over the final communique, things may have to get a lot worse before China beats a retreat on the global stage.

The tragedy is not just that China as a nation will have to pay dearly for its leaders' mistakes, but also that many of these leaders, including those giving speeches commemorating Deng Xiaoping's economic revolution, agree with Deng's son but are too scared to speak out.

Minxin Pei is a professor of government and nonresident senior fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.