Snappy headline, I know. But I’m writing for myself for the first time in 2 years and it’s great not to give a fuck* just once.

*I’ve missed you, my old friend

Anyway, let’s kick off with a confession.

I have barely watched either Saquon Barkley or Bradley Chubb. I definitely haven’t done enough to determine how good either are. My assumption that Barkley is an elite RB prospect while Chubb is the top pass rusher but a guy a rung or two below the likes of Myles Garrett comes mostly from draft evaluators I trust. If you think that makes me unqualified to speak on the subject, you’re probably right — but that’s not stopping anyone anymore so screw it!

I recently tweeted this, and I wanted to further address the Chubb vs. Barkley question that’s set to dominate the Colts world whenever the staff is put into place and we start focusing completely on the draft.

First, let’s move forward under one assumption: Andrew Luck is healthy for 2018 and is back to his old self (or close enough that the long-term questions are put to rest).

I know we all miss Luck, and want him back on the field more than we want our next collective breath. But, while his absence has been felt immensely, I feel some have forgotten how quite how good he is — or, more specifically, how good a Luck-led offense is.

In 2016, Luck played 15 games. And now we know he played all or most of those games with a painful and limiting shoulder injury, which also impacted his ability to prepare and practice during the week.

In those 15 games, the Luck-led offense scored 404 points, or 26.9 per game.

That’s good. Incredible, really, considering Luck’s limitations, the bland play-calling, the lack of weapons aside from T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle, and injuries to the offensive line. The Colts finished 8th in scoring offense and the 26.9 mark would’ve been good enough for 5th this season, trailing the Saints by just over a point and the Eagles and Patriots by 1.7 points — three offenses that have received a ton of praise and admiration this year (and, three teams set to play in the divisional round).

So, while the Colts’ running game has been woeful for most of Luck’s time in Indy, the team’s ability to score wasn’t significantly affected the last time we saw a close-to-healthy Luck.

I understand some want Barkley to take the weight off Luck’s shoulders and protect him, but that simply doesn’t make sense to me if it means taking him 3rd overall.

The NFL is a passing league, and the Colts have one of a handful of great quarterbacks. Again, assuming he is healthy, Luck. Is. This. Offense.

If Luck can’t play again, and you don’t like any of the quarterbacks, I can get taking a franchise-level back like Barkley and running your offense through him while Jacoby Brissett or another vet takes a game manager-type role.

People point to Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette as examples of the benefits of taking an RB high, but the Cowboys had Tony Romo, who was held together by glue and Jerry Jones’ love, and the Jaguars had Blake Bortles, who … sucks. Both teams were set on becoming run-first offenses (as much as you can be in 2017) and didn’t have a guy they wanted to throw 35–40 times a game.

When you have a QB who has proven he can lead a top-5 offense (at least, seeing how the 2016 offense wasn’t exactly stocked with talent), you don’t pour a premium asset like the 3rd overall pick into the running back position. You simply won’t see the return for your investment.

Speaking of return for your investment, let’s get to the other point I want to highlight: the importance of positional value.

Pairing Luck and Hilton with Barkley is enticing. They’d be a nightmare that defenses might not be able to be stopped. But, like I said, the Colts don’t have much room to grow as a scoring offense. They certainly can get a lot better on the other side of the ball though.

Everything in the NFL is connected. Every decision you make about your roster impacts countless other moves. Teams only have finite resources, and you have to use them in a focused way in order to build significant enough strengths to win. The system won’t allow a team to get too good at too many positions, or at least not for long.

If you spread your resources too thin or not in complimentary ways, you end up with a flawed roster.

Some positions have to have less investment placed in them out of necessity, and when you have a franchise quarterback, running back should be one of them.

And this isn’t just about draft picks, this is about cap space.

Fournette went 4th overall to the Jaguars in 2017. Only four running backs earn a higher yearly salary than his $6.78 million per year: Le’Veon Bell (franchise tag), LeSean McCoy, Devonta Freeman, and Doug Martin. If the Colts want Barkley, they’ll be taking him a spot higher and a year later, which means more money.

So, as soon as Barkley is drafted by the Colts he’d immediately be earning just below the going rate for a top-tier back. Rookies are all about performance first and foremost, sure, but a close second is the fact that not only can you get a great player, you lock them into an affordable deal for at least four years, allowing you to spend those resources on other areas.

Barkley would be another story. The Colts would then be paying Luck like a top-3 QB, Hilton like a top-10 WR, and Barkley like a top-5 RB. Again, sounds like a shit load of fun, but likely not the best use of a rare resource like the 3rd overall pick, especially when you have a defense that ranks last or near to last in every major category.

And when compared to the value of selecting a pass-rusher at 3rd overall, it’s no contest. Last year’s 3rd overall pick, Solomon Thomas, received a contract worth just over $7 million per season. Chubb would receive likely a near-identical contract.

As an outside linebacker, he’d rank 19th in terms of annual salary. As a defensive end, he’d rank around 21st.

Going into how much easier it is to find good-to-great running backs in the later rounds or in free agency compared to pass-rushers is a conversation for another day (plus, I’m tired and this is getting long and I want to watch Black Mirror), but guys like Jabaal Sheard — who was low-key great in his first year in Indy — are as good as it gets in free agency, and he cost around $8 million per year to snap up. Elite guys simply don’t hit the open market.

And like I said previously, everything is connected. By spending the 3rd overall pick on Barkley, the Colts then have to fix pass rusher with another asset like their 2nd-round pick, and then that isn’t being used on another area of need and so on and so forth.

So, even if Barkley is the next Adrian Peterson and Chubb tops out as a top-15 pass rusher, when you have Luck to lead your offense, the latter is still more valuable in my opinion.

Again, establishing a good running game for Luck is vital, but it’s not the only way to help or protect him. Having a defense capable of getting off the field on 3rd down etc. does that too.

If Chris Ballard decides Barkley is the best player in the draft, doesn’t see Chubb as worthy of a top-3 selection, and can’t trade out of the pick, I’m not gonna be too upset. There are far worse things than pairing an elite QB with a generational-type back.

But the Colts are in the position they are now because of an inability to build the roster in a cohesive and complimentary manner (we’re still waiting on that monster).