Sprint, T-Mobile Merger Talks May Heat Up Next Week

Sprint's stock value has jumped 142% in the last 12 months. Not necessarily because of anything the company is doing with its network; Sprint still generally seen as an improving but struggling and debt-laden alternative to the other three major wireless carriers, with an inability to build a brand that truly resonates with consumers. No, the company's stock price is soaring because Wall Street expects Sprint to make a second pass at acquiring T-Mobile, after regulators blocked the company's 2014 acquisition attempt out of fear of hurting competition.

But Sprint owner Softbank has been buttering up Donald Trump for the better part of the year in the hopes of speeding a deal along. That has included letting Trump falsely take credit for job creation plans Sprint announced well before Trump was even elected.

Trump's FTC and FCC picks are very cozy with large telecom operators, and the sense among most telecom analysts is such a deal wouldn't be blocked this go round. Chatter surrounding the merger has been quieter of late due to collusion rules attached to the recently completed 600MHz incentive auction -- preventing Sprint and T-Mobile from talking about such a deal. But with the auction done, those rules expire on April 27 -- and most expect talks to heat up again -- quickly.

As always, what consumers want isn't given too much thought by large carriers contemplating M&As (and most T-Mobile customers don't want Sprint ruining what they see is a good thing). The question, as noted by MoffettNathanson anaylsyt Craig Moffett, is whether T-Mobile is interested in a deal given its surging popularity, recent spectrum acquisitions, and the fact that it doesn't really need Sprint to succeed.

"It seems as though valuations have already jumped to a near certainty a deal will be announced and approved. You have to ask yourself whether T-Mobile is going to be as eager to do a deal as Sprint," said Moffett.

Granted if the price is right, T-Mobile owner Deutsche Telekom is likely willing to talk to pretty much anybody.