Roy Morgan interviewed 6,283 Australian electors aged 18+ across the 20 electorates between January and June 11/12, 2016 – interviewing approximately 310 electors in each of the 20 seats. Full results in the twenty seats are available in the tables below.

Although a lot can happen between now and election day the Greens look set to grab two Inner Melbourne seats at next month’s Federal Election. After a disappointing 2013 Federal Election the Greens are standing candidates in all 150 Lower House seats.

Roy Morgan’s 2016 seat-by-seat analysis of the Green’s 20 best performing electorates at the 2013 Federal Election shows the Greens will win the Inner Melbourne electorate of Batman from the incumbent David Feeney (ALP) and the Greens one sitting Member, Adam Bandt, will retain his seat of Melbourne.

Roy Morgan interviewed 6,283 Australian electors aged 18+ across the 20 electorates between January and June 11/12, 2016 – interviewing approximately 310 electors in each of the 20 seats. Full results in the twenty seats are available in the tables below.

Roy Morgan polling shows that no Liberal seats are in danger of being won by the Greens.

Of the doubtful Labor seats it appears the Victorian seat of Wills has been saved following the ALP’s preference swapping deal with the Liberal Party. In a seat being targeted by the Greens – the electorate of Grayndler in Sydney held by Labor’s Anthony Albanese, voting is similar to the 2013 election. His primary vote was in the high 40s in 2013 and the Greens were outpolled by the Liberals. Albanese is likely to retain his seat.

In Melbourne Ports in 2013, Labor’s Michael Danby was out voted by the Liberals but retained the seat because of Greens preferences. A switch in primary votes between Labor and the Greens could see the seat fall to the Greens although the ALP (33%) retains a significant primary vote lead over the Greens (26%) in Melbourne Ports.

Voting intention:

Top 10 Greens seats: Melbourne (VIC), Batman (VIC), Wills (VIC), Gellibrand (VIC), Richmond (NSW), Melbourne Ports (VIC), Sydney (NSW), Fraser (ACT), Grayndler (NSW), Fremantle (WA).

Melbourne (VIC): Greens (40.5%); ALP (34.5%); L-NP (18.5%); Others (6.5%). Greens held;

Batman (VIC): Greens (40%); ALP (34.5%); L-NP (17%); Others (8.5%). ALP held;

Wills (VIC): ALP (34.5%); Greens (34.5%); L-NP (22%); Others (9%). ALP held;

Gellibrand (VIC): ALP (40.5%); Greens (30%); L-NP (22.5%); Others (7%). ALP held;

Richmond (NSW): ALP (31.0%); L-NP (28.5%); Greens (27%); Others (13.5%). ALP held;

Melbourne Ports (VIC): ALP (33%); L-NP (31%); Greens (26%); Others (10%). ALP held;

Sydney (NSW): ALP (40%); L-NP (26.5%); Greens (24.5%); Others (9%). ALP held;

Fraser (ACT): ALP (33.5%); L-NP (32.5%); Greens (24.5%); Others (9.5%). ALP held;

Grayndler (NSW): ALP (39.5%); L-NP (24.5%); Greens (24%); Others (12%). ALP held;

Fremantle (WA): L-NP (38%); ALP (37%); Greens (22%); Others (3%). ALP held.





NSW Seats

Grayndler – held by Anthony Albanese (ALP)

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 24.7 19.0 24.5 -0.2 ALP 47.2 37.5 39.5 -7.7 Greens 23.0 23.9 24.0 +1.0 Others 5.1 19.6 12.0 +6.9 TOTAL 100 100 100

Sydney – held by Tanya Plibersek (ALP)

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 30.5 22.8 26.5 -4.0 ALP 46.0 33.1 40.0 -6.0 Greens 17.3 23.6 24.5 +7.2 Others 6.2 20.5 9.0 +2.8 TOTAL 100 100 100

Richmond – held by Justine Elliot (ALP)

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 37.6 30.1 28.5 -9.1 ALP 33.5 28.8 31.0 -2.5 Greens 17.7 16.7 27.0 +9.3 Others 11.2 24.4 13.5 +2.3 TOTAL 100 100 100

North Sydney – held by Trent Zimmerman (Liberal)

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 61.0 48.2 45.3 57.5 -3.5 ALP 20.0 - 20.5 21.5 +1.5 Greens 15.4 15.7 14.6 12.5 -2.9 Others 3.6 36.1 19.6 8.5 +4.9 TOTAL 100 100 100 100

Warringah – held by Tony Abbott (Liberal)

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 60.9 46.7 53.0 -7.9 ALP 19.3 17.3 22.0 +2.7 Greens 15.5 14.6 15.5 0.0 Others 4.3 21.4 9.5 +5.2 TOTAL 100 100 100

Wentworth – held by Malcolm Turnbull (Liberal)

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 63.3 42.1 41.5 -21.8 ALP 19.4 20.1 27.5 +8.1 Greens 14.6 17.5 22.0 +7.4 Others 2.7 20.3 9.0 +6.3 TOTAL 100 100 100

Victorian Seats

Melbourne – held by Adam Bandt (Greens)

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 22.8 24.9 18.5 -4.3 ALP 26.6 29.4 34.5 +7.9 Greens 42.6 34.4 40.5 -2.1 Others 8.0 11.3 6.5 -1.5 TOTAL 100 100 100

Batman – held by David Feeney (ALP)

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 22.5 22.3 17.0 -5.5 ALP 41.3 39.2 34.5 -6.8 Greens 26.4 24.4 40.0 +13.6 Others 9.8 14.1 8.5 -1.3 TOTAL 100 100 100

Gellibrand – held by Tim Watts (ALP)

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 26.7 25.4 22.5 -4.2 ALP 46.0 42.0 40.5 -5.5 Greens 16.7 16.3 30.0 +13.3 Others 10.6 16.3 7.0 -3.6 TOTAL 100 100 100

Melbourne Ports – held by Michael Danby (ALP)

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 41.1 41.7 31.0 -10.1 ALP 31.7 25.9 33.0 +1.3 Greens 20.2 20.8 26.0 +5.8 Others 7.0 11.6 10.0 +3.0 TOTAL 100 100 100

Wills (ALP) – No sitting member

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 22.8 23.9 22.0 -0.8 ALP 45.1 38.8 34.5 -10.6 Greens 22.2 22.0 34.5 +12.3 Others 9.9 15.3 9.0 -0.9 TOTAL 100 100 100

Higgins – held by Kelly O’Dwyer (Liberal)

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 54.4 49.8 51.5 -2.9 ALP 24.1 21.8 19.5 -4.6 Greens 16.8 17.1 21.0 +4.2 Others 4.7 11.3 8.0 +3.3 TOTAL 100 100 100

Kooyong – held by Josh Frydenberg (Liberal)

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 55.7 51.2 55.5 -0.2 ALP 22.4 20.6 19.0 -3.4 Greens 16.6 17.1 14.0 -2.6 Others 5.3 11.1 11.5 +6.2 TOTAL 100 100 100

Queensland Seats

Brisbane (LNP) – No sitting member

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 48.0 44.6 44.5 -3.5 ALP 30.1 26.5 21.0 -9.1 Greens 14.3 14.9 17.5 +3.2 Others 7.6 14.0 17.0 +9.4 TOTAL 100 100 100

Ryan – held by Jane Prentice (LNP)

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 51.7 47.3 44.5 -7.2 ALP 25.5 23.6 27.5 +2.0 Greens 14.4 14.0 19.0 +4.6 Others 8.4 15.1 9.0 +0.6 TOTAL 100 100 100





West Australian Seats

Curtin – held by Julie Bishop (Liberal)

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 62.1 56.1 49.0 -13.1 ALP 17.9 15.8 22.0 +4.1 Greens 15.3 15.7 18.0 +2.7 Others 4.7 12.4 11.0 +6.3 TOTAL 100 100 100

Fremantle (ALP) – No sitting member

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 38.1 35.5 38.0 -0.1 ALP 40.8 32.8 37.0 -3.8 Greens 11.9 14.3 22.0 +10.1 Others 9.2 17.4 3.0 -6.2 TOTAL 100 100 100





ACT Seats

Canberra – held by Gai Brodtmann (ALP)

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 37.9 35.5 37.5 -0.4 ALP 41.1 33.6 35.0 -6.1 Greens 12.7 17.4 16.5 +3.8 Others 8.3 13.5 11.0 +2.7 TOTAL 100 100 100

Fraser – held by Andrew Leigh (ALP)

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 31.6 30.1 32.5 +0.9 ALP 44.7 35.2 33.5 -11.2 Greens 14.1 21.0 24.5 +10.4 Others 9.6 13.7 9.5 -0.1 TOTAL 100 100 100





Tasmanian Seat

Franklin – held by Julie Collins (ALP)

2013 Federal

Election – House 2013 Federal Election – Senate 2016 Voting Intention Change % % % % L-NP 38.7 36.2 38.5 -0.2 ALP 39.9 34.0 33.0 -6.9 Greens 12.2 14.5 14.5 +2.3 Others 9.2 15.3 14.0 +4.8 TOTAL 100 100 100

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