Phoenix, AZ (October 19, 2018) - With early voting underway in Arizona, Data Orbital is pleased to present results from its latest statewide survey of likely Arizona voters’ preferences in the US Senate race.

As we continue to maintain a high standard in our methodology and transparency, we are proud to announce that we are the newest members of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative. According to AAPOR, “The Transparency Initiative is an approach to the goal of an open science of survey research by acknowledging those organizations that pledge to practice transparency in their reporting of survey-based research findings”. This reflects Data Orbital’s mission of providing trusted survey research based on the highest standards.

This survey was modeled on two possible outcomes. One model allows for a Democratic surge, giving Republicans only a 5% ballot advantage compared with their 13% advantage in the last midterms. The other is modeled on an average surge with a 9% Republican ballot advantage.

In the U.S. Senate race, both models shows Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema with a lead over Congresswoman Martha McSally. In the Democratic surge scenario, Sinema has an 8.1% lead while in an average surge, her lead tightens slightly to 5.4%. Meanwhile, just over 7% of voters remain undecided.