2013 College football countdown | No. 8: Florida State

Paul Myerberg | USA TODAY Sports

Last year's offense averaged 5.63 yards per carry, the fourth-best mark in the FBS. The defense allowed 2.75 yards per carry, leading the country. Alabama (5.59 yards on offense, 2.43 yards on defense) was the only other team in the FBS to gain at least twice as many yards per carry as it allowed yards per carry.

Florida State has begun to resemble Alabama in more ways than one. The offensive tendencies are one similarity: FSU wants to establish the line of scrimmage with authority, using multiple backs in multiple roles – and with multiple looks – to push opponents back still while forcing them to move up, thereby opening up lanes for an opportunistic downfield passing game. The defensive tendencies are another: FSU, like Alabama, controls the flow of attack from the inside out, bullying opponents with nearly unparalleled size and depth along the front seven before taking advantage of finesse-based attacks with, yes, nearly unparalleled speed and athleticism.

Like Alabama, the Seminoles are a menace on the recruiting trail – picking and choosing as well as any team in the FBS, identifying the right sort of weapons for its particular schemes and showing an utter lack of fear when choosing one prospect over another. Like Alabama, FSU has developed its recruiting talent superbly; while coach Jimbo Fisher's early classes were thrust into immediate action, the staff has carefully selected immediate-impact contributors while allowing a number of talented recruits to develop further before stepping into the rotation.

There's some irony here, in a sense, since Alabama's blueprint is vintage Florida State, circa 1990s. Bring in immense talent; develop this talent; indoctrinate this talent into your system; watch the talent flourish; rinse and repeat. Few programs ever did it better than during the Seminoles' prime. This program has renewed the cycle under Fisher and his staff.

LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION

A year later, FSU is ready to break out. There's too much here: there's too much for Fisher and his staff to work with. The schedule is too workable to miss this shot. There are seniors in key spots, gifted underclassmen at others, the program's best depth in years. It's all about living up to expectations, both along the offensive line and on a team-wide level. It's time for FSU's renaissance.

2012 RECAP

— In a nutshell: Florida State secured its first ACC title since 2005 and its first BCS bowl victory since 1999, making Fisher's third season the program's most successful in more than a decade. This was an offense for the ages: FSU set a new school record with 6,591 yards of total offense, finishing ninth overall in the FBS, and topped the 40-point mark against seven opponents – the Seminoles' most 40-point games since 1999. Meanwhile, the defense put forth a vintage effort, finishing in the top three nationally in total yards, passing yards and rushing yards per game; in scoring, the Seminoles slid to sixth nationally. What stymied last year's title run was another avoidable regular-season loss, this time to North Carolina State; that joined a later loss to rival Florida, though FSU wasn't reaching the BCS title game without an unblemished record. Perhaps the overall résumé wasn't one of the five best in college football; I still think this team could have beaten anyone, anytime, anywhere.

— High point: The Orange Bowl win against Northern Illinois. Yes, it was an unfair matchup – that doesn't mean it wasn't a hugely meaningful victory for a program starving for January glory. FSU's 15-minute span in the win against Clemson was as impressive a stretch as any team played in 2012.

— Low point: The loss to N.C. State. At some point – some point soon – Fisher needs to address his team's penchant for sluggish play against inferior competition. To belabor the above point, one thing that separates Nick Saban and Alabama from the pack is an unwillingness to accept anything less than a maximum effort regardless of the level of opposition.

— Tidbit: Florida State has reached 31 bowl games in a row, the longest active streak in the FBS – nine more than second-place Florida – and third-longest in FBS history. Up next: Michigan's 33-year streak (1975-2007) and Nebraska's 35-year run (1969-2003).

— Tidbit (freshmen edition): Only two freshmen quarterbacks in FBS history have led their team to the national championship: Oklahoma's Jamelle Holieway in 1985 and Miami's Bernie Kosar in 1983. Kosar was a redshirt; Holieway remains the only true freshman to win a national title as his team's starting quarterback. No, Tim Tebow did not start as a true freshman on Florida's championship-winning squad in 2006.

FORMER PLAYERS IN THE NFL

— 45: OT Alex Barron (Oakland), WR Anquan Boldin (San Francisco), LB Nigel Bradham (Buffalo), LB Everette Brown (Philadelphia), DT Brodrick Bunkley (New Orleans), DE Tank Carradine (San Francisco), CB Tony Carter (Denver), CB Antonio Cromartie (New York Jets), OT Andrew Datko (Green Bay), DT Everett Dawkins (Minnesota), DT Darnell Dockett (Arizona), DT Andre Fluellen (Detroit), K Graham Gano (Carolina), WR Richard Goodman (San Diego), DT Letroy Guion (Minnesota), CB Mike Harris (Jacksonville), LB Geno Hayes (Jacksonville), S Chris Hope (Detroit), K Dustin Hopkins (Buffalo), C Rodney Hudson (Kansas City), K Sebastian Janikowski (Oakland), LB Brandon Jenkins (Washington), FB Greg Jones (Houston), QB EJ Manuel (Buffalo), DT Anthony McCloud (Minnesota), LB Nick Moody (San Francisco), QB Christian Ponder (Minnesota), P Shawn Powell (Buffalo), FB Lonnie Pryor (Jacksonville), CB Xavier Rhodes (Minnesota), CB Patrick Robinson (New Orleans), LS Garrison Sanborn (Buffalo), OT Zebrie Sanders (Buffalo), LB Ernie Sums (Dallas), RB Antone Smith (Atlanta), WR Rodney Smith (Minnesota), RB Chris Thompson (Washington), LB Lawrence Timmons (Pittsburgh), RB Leon Washington (New England), LB Dekoda Watson (Tampa Bay), OT Menelik Watson (Oakland), LB Bjoern Werner (Indianapolis), DE Markus White (Tampa Bay), LB Vince Williams (Pittsburgh), DE Kamerion Wimbley (Tennessee).

ARBITRARY TOP FIVE LIST

— Washington Redskins' 2013 draft picks

1. S Bacarri Rambo

2. RB Chris Thompson

3. CB David Amerson

4. S Phillip Thomas

5. TE Jordan Reed

COACHING

— Jimbo Fisher (Salem College '89), 31-10 after three seasons. What Fisher has done, among other smaller details, is help FSU reclaim its perch among the elite programs in college football. It wasn't easy: FSU went through some growing pains early, partially due to a decreased talent level, and only seemed to hit its stride during the 2011 season – and then carried those gains into last fall, when the Seminoles won the program's first ACC crown since 2005 and netted its first BCS bowl victory since 1999, when FSU won its second of two national titles.

Fisher has been a part of the FSU staff since 2007, when he was hired by Bobby Bowden to run the Seminoles' sputtering offense. A year later, Fisher was tabbed as the coach-in-waiting when Bowden opted to retire. For all the struggles FSU went through from 2007-9, it's difficult to place any blame upon Fisher's offense. The Seminoles averaged 31.73 points per game from 2008-9 – the 434 points scored in 2008 was the program's most since 2000 – while the defense set new program lows in 2009. It's because of the success of his offense that Fisher was able to escape Florida State's recent downturn unscathed, with his reputation intact and the promise surrounding this new era at a fever pitch. In some ways, though few coaches would embrace the opportunity to replace a legend like Bowden, his predecessor's struggles over the last decade allowed Fisher a bit of leeway as he adjusted to his new position. But don't be confused: Florida State is Florida State, and winning means everything.

Fisher is accustomed to serving under the limelight, both as offensive coordinator at FSU and in his service in the same capacity at LSU (2000-6). The Tigers went 70-20 during Fisher's seven-year period as coordinator, reaching seven bowl games, winning a pair of SEC championships (2001, 2003) and the 2003 national championship. His FBS experience includes a season as the quarterbacks coach at Cincinnati (1999) and six seasons as the quarterbacks coach at Auburn (1993-98). At Auburn, Fisher coached under Terry Bowden and alongside Tommy Bowden, then the offensive coordinator.

— Tidbit (coaching edition): FSU was forced to remake a strong portion of its coaching staff after several former assistants stepped up the coaching ladder, which is always a good thing. First, the holdovers: Rick Trickett is back along the offensive line, Lawrence Dawsey returns with the wide receivers and, of course, Odell Haggins is back for his 20th season leading the defensive tackles. The most important new addition is defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt, the former Alabama secondary coach who replaces Mark Stoops, now making waves at Kentucky. Former Georgia Tech secondary coach Charles Kelly will take on FSU's linebackers while also working as the special teams coordinator. Tim Brewster, a well-regarded recruiter, will serve as the point man for the Seminoles' recruiting efforts while coaching the tight ends – two positions he's very qualified to hold. New running backs coach Jay Graham comes over from South Carolina, where he spent the last four seasons tutoring backs like Marcus Lattimore, among others. Quarterbacks coach Randy Sanders has significant credibility in SEC country, thanks primarily to his two-decade turn at Tennessee. Last but not least: Fisher finally got his man. Fisher has long wanted to hire Sal Sunseri in some capacity; after Sunseri was let go at Tennessee following last season, FSU snapped him up as its defensive ends coach.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

— Offense: The Jameis Winston era begins – finally. And right on schedule, I should add, because Winston, a redshirt freshman, was seemingly anointed the Seminoles' heir apparent during the course of last season, a year spent learning the trade behind EJ Manuel. Well, it wasn't that easy: FSU didn't pay the offseason quarterback competition mere lip service. Although FSU always leaned toward Winston, adoring his smarts, composure, legs and next-level skill set, sophomore Jacob Coker extended the battle deep into fall camp by putting a together a nearly flawless offseason of his own. Although it's difficult to imagine Coker remaining in Tallahassee for the duration of his career – and also unfair to assume he'd leave, to be fair – the Seminoles will enter 2013 with a very enviable situation: Winston is the starter, but the staff knows Coker can deliver if given the opportunity. Quietly, redshirt freshman Sean Maguire had a very nice spring and fall camp. Very few FBS programs can feel the same level of security in its options under center.

So here's Winston. What does he bring to the table? Let's put it this way: Winston has matched the hype – and as anyone familiar with the program can tell you, the hype has been off the charts. But he's never put his wares on display on a Saturday, and therein lies the rub; Winston has every ability to play at a high level from the start, but he'll step into Pittsburgh having never attempted a college pass, led a team through game-week preparation, digested a college defense during the course of four quarters, weathered the blitz, taken a hit, thrown under duress. He'll hit a learning curve, in other words. What will allow Winston to stay above water – and this offense, and team, to remain afloat – are his not just his physical gifts but also his perceived poise and command, two major assets that belie his lack of college experience. As of today, he's an unknown commodity under an enormous spotlight. But Winston has hit every standard placed in his path since stepping on campus, making him not only a freshman to watch nationally – this with ease – but also a player to watch, period. Winston will have an enormous impact on the championship race.

This offensive line continues to improve as it adds experience. Four starters return from a year ago: Cameron Erving at left tackle, Josue Matias at left guard, Bryan Stork at center and Tre' Jackson at right guard. Rounding out the line will be junior Bobby Hart, a nine-game starter in 2011 who slides back into the lineup as FSU's replacement for Menelik Watson. In my opinion, this is FSU's best starting five in years: Stork is a calming presence in the middle; Erving, a former defender, has made substantial strides since moving to tackle; Mattis and Jackson are maulers; and Hart is now eons removed from his starting experience as a raw freshman two seasons ago. I see at least three – and perhaps four – starters earning all-ACC honors. The issue remains proven depth, especially on the exterior of the line: FSU has the bodies to weather one or two injuries inside thanks to some nice flexibility, but losing Erving or Hart could cause an all-hands-on-deck situation with the starting five – since Stork might have to move outside, forcing junior Austin Barron into the lineup at center and starting a potentially damaging game of dominoes all along the front five. If healthy, however, this is the best line in the ACC.

The receiver corps has taken a hit during the last few months: Greg Dent's status remains in limbo, Jarred Haggins will miss the year with a knee injury and Willie Haulstead is ineligible. Add these losses to the normal attrition to graduation – which robbed FSU of Rodney Smith – and the loss of several tight ends and you see a huge change in plans: FSU receiver corps, a position long perceived as an unmatched strength, has become a bit of a question mark. How will the Seminoles survive? The top group remains choice, as few teams can match the trio of junior Rashad Greene (57 receptions for 741 yards), senior Kenny Shaw (33 for 532) and sophomore Kelvin Benjamin (30 for 495) – with Greene still tragically overlooked nationally, Shaw a proven weapon in the slot and Benjamin perhaps the most physically gifted sophomore receiver in the country. What FSU really needs, since this threesome will deliver, is a bounce-back year from junior Christian Green, who disappeared in 2012, and some degree of impact from three incoming freshmen: Isaiah Jones, Levonte Whitfield and Jesus Wilson. While Nick O'Leary (21 for 252) returns at tight end, FSU will need to utilize different looks to replace Kevin Haplea, who will miss the year due to injury. One option is former defensive end Giorgio Newberry, who made the move to tight end this month.

— Defense: Florida State returns enough talent, depth and experience to survive two major factors: one, the loss of seven starters and several reserves, many of whom can be seen on Sundays; and two, the changing cast of characters on the defensive staff. Things have changed, in a sense; what hasn't changed is FSU's overall blueprint, especially along the defensive line. As in the recent past – since Fisher began recruiting at an elite level – the Seminoles will have the ability to rotate as many as 10 tackles and ends, helping offset a lack of prototypical experience with wave after wave of line talent. The new star, replacing last year's standout ends, will be junior tackle Timmy Jernigan (46 tackles, 8.0 for loss), a first-time starter who will quickly become one of the premier interior linemen in the FBS. Jernigan, like many of this year's contributors, has flashed enormous growth during the last 12 months.

In terms of a starting lineup, look for Jernigan to join senior Demonte McCallister (33 tackles) inside while senior Dan Hicks and sophomore Mario Edwards, Jr. (17 tackles) step forward at end. One thing to keep in mind: Jernigan, McCallister and Edwards played their best football late in 2012, with Edwards clearly finding some rhythm in wins against Georgia Tech and Northern Illinois. In my opinion, the starting four is far less a concern than many perceive. But what separates this line from most in the FBS are the bodies at Pruitt's disposal, handing FSU's new coordinator the option of utilizing several different looks along the front seven – running a 5-2, perhaps, or moving bigger ends inside while linebackers step forward off the edge. When the Seminoles do dip into reserve, look for the line to add redshirt freshman Chris Casher and JUCO transfer Desmond Hollin on the outside and Jacobbi McDaniel, Eddie Goldman, Nile Lawrence-Stample, Justin Shanks and Derrick Mitchell at tackle. Few teams match this level of depth.

Pruitt's impact will be felt heavily at linebacker, where FSU could slowly begin incorporating more of a 3-4 look. Two starters are no-brainers: Telvin Smith (64 tackles, 9.5 for loss) and Christian Jones (95 tackles) will start on the weak side and in the middle, respectively, though each can fill any of several roles on the second level. The two swap spots from a year ago, which Smith spent as a speedier alternative in the middle for former starter Vince Williams. While the Seminoles are rarely traditional – often using a fifth defensive back, or some derivative thereof – look for sophomores Reggie Northrup and Terrance Smith to battle for snaps on the strong side. And what of five-star freshman Matthew Thomas? He'll see the field, with the only question whether he slots into a recognizable position – perhaps pushing on the strong side, since he has the speed to run with tight ends in perceived passing situations – or serves as a quick-burst replacement across the board. One could make the case that only at Alabama, FSU and one or two other programs could a top-five recruit, the best at his specific position, enter his rookie season without a clear and unquestioned role on defense.

The secondary loses a stopper in Xavier Rhodes, which has led to some shuffling, but don't bet on any noteworthy decline from the nation's top pass defense: FSU still has talent to spare across the board, again giving Pruitt the option of adding a fifth or sixth defensive back with a fair degree of regularity. The star is all-everything senior Lamarcus Joyner (51 tackles), who will move from safety to cornerback for his final season. That move, that one single change, completely offsets any perceived decline in production from the cornerback position. What's one nuts-and-bolts factor to consider? That Joyner's flexibility – along with the same quality seen in other defensive backs – completely opens up Pruitt's toolbox; he can be glamorous in his blitz packages and coverage schemes, presenting one pre-snap read before rapidly shifting into another look altogether after the snap. It's the little things that make the secondary dangerous.

Joyner's a starter on one side, though FSU really needs three starters at cornerback – because Joyner will often slide into the slot to bring pressure. When this does occur, look for junior Nick Waisome (21 tackles) and sophomore Ronald Darby (22 tackles) to move into starting roles; either could start on the opposite side when Joyner sets up in a traditional look. At safety, FSU will team senior Terrence Brooks (52 tackles) with junior Karlos Williams, who has the athletic ability to shine and the physicality to move into the box as a hybrid linebacker-defensive back. As at linebacker, five-star freshman cornerback Jalen Ramsey should see some sort of role in FSU's sub-package defenses.

— Special teams: FSU's kicking game will take a step back as it transitions from Dustin Hopkins, a program great, to redshirt freshman Roberto Aguayo. The freshman has some huge shoes to fill. The rest of the team remains intact, however, from sophomore punter Carson Beatty – who should do a better job on directional punts – to return specialists like Joyner, Greene and Karlos Williams. Having Hopkins' leg helped on kickoffs, but FSU's overall talent level helped the Seminoles finish third nationally in kickoff-return defense a season ago. If not again the nation's top special teams, FSU won't drop far out of the conversation.

POSITION(S) TO WATCH

— Running back: Although talent returns in the backfield – some major talent, in fact – let's ask a question: How will the running game change without Chris Thompson and Lonnie Pryor? It's an interesting question, because losing these two prime contributors could alter the physicality of the Seminoles' ground attack; losing Pryor robs FSU of a huge red-zone and first-man-through-the-hole threat, while Thompson handled much of the Seminoles' interior power game. Fisher can scheme around this issue by adding more size to the equation, but that's not necessarily a rock-solid recipe for success – because FSU always has big, physical bodies, but this offense has not been up to snuff in short-yardage situations. In some ways, and even more than Winston or line depth, it's this seemingly small-scale idea – whether FSU can move the sticks in certain key scenarios – that could define this offense's overall level of success.

But, as noted, the backfield is loaded. Junior James Wilder, Jr. (635 yards and 11 touchdowns) grew into his frame last season, giving FSU an enormously gifted big back with surprising nimble feet; Wilder teams with fellow junior Devonta Freeman (660 yards) to give FSU the ACC's best one-two backfield punch. The only question, in fact, is whether Wilder or Freeman separates himself from the other, assuming the mantle of the Seminoles' go-to back. They should share touches fairly evenly, though Wilder has the higher ceiling. There will also be a role for redshirt freshman Mario Pender, a quick-twitch option with one drawback: a lack of experience. That'll come, however, and Pender could put up significant numbers as the change-of-pace third back behind the two leaders. FSU will move converted defender Chad Abram into Pryor's former role at fullback, though I sincerely doubt Abram's ability to match even a slice of the flexibility Pryor granted this offense a year ago.

GAME(S) TO WATCH

— Clemson: Take note of one enormous fact: FSU must travel to Death Valley, true, but it does so after a bye week – and does so after playing Bethune-Cookman, Boston College and Maryland, so Fisher could conceivably throw in pieces of Clemson-related preparation during the two weeks prior to facing the Tigers. Pittsburgh and Nevada will attempt to hang tough with the Seminoles, likely to no avail; the same could be said of nine of the 12 opponents on this schedule, though this assumes FSU brings its complete game without fail against the entire slate. Three games decide the regular season: Clemson, Miami and Florida.

SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

— In a nutshell: Florida State's title hopes will take a hit in 2013 due to the inexperience under center, with history as our guide: Only two FBS teams in 40 years – since the NCAA allowed freshmen to play in 1972 – have led their teams to a national championship as the starting quarterback. That's something to consider, of course. What maintains the Seminoles' spot in the title hunt are several factors: one, the rapidly improving leadership from Fisher, who has developed into an elite FBS coach; two, the nature of the offensive system, which will largely put Winston in can't-fail situations; three, the talent surrounding Winston on offense, from the line through the skill players; four, the ridiculous depth on defense; and five, the sort of confident mentality that has pervaded this program since its strong close to the 2011 season. In my mind, Winston is the lone question mark – and given his ability and potential, having Winston as the question mark means FSU is in a good place.

What you see, in general, are several elite units on both sides of the ball. On defense, the secondary is one of the three or four best in the FBS; the back seven has the flexibility to be only as exotic as Pruitt's brain, giving the new coordinator countless options; and the defensive front, while raw at end, remains talented enough to be considered the best in the ACC and one of the most promising nationally. Offensively, the youthful nature of the quarterback position is tempered by Fisher's best front five, a wonderful one-two backfield punch and a terrific top four in the passing game, even if depth remains an issue at receiver and tight end. On special teams, FSU will retain its spot among the country's top units if Aguayo hits makeable tries and puts a third of his kickoffs into the end zone.

I'll predict this: FSU will win the ACC. What about a win total? I'd say 11-1 is a significant possibility, with the one loss coming at either Clemson – which would likely hand CU the Atlantic Division, ruining my first prediction – or Florida, with the latter in the season finale. A safer bet might be 10-2, giving FSU room for one avoidable defeat during conference play. I have enormous confidence in this team's ability to offset several personnel losses and remain a heavy factor in the championship hunt. Now, I don't think FSU is going to play for the title, let alone take home the program's first championship since 1999; this seems a hair out of reach, in my mind. This season could be more about preparing for a run in 2014, though Fisher would never, ever even suggest this scenario.

— Dream season: FSU goes 12-0 during the regular season, capping the year with a 45-14 win against Florida, and tops Virginia Tech in the ACC title game to meet Alabama for the national championship.

— Nightmare season: The Seminoles go 8-4, losing to Pittsburgh, Clemson, Miami and Florida.

IN CASE YOU WERE WONDERING

— Where Florida State fans hang out: The Web sites of the Tallahassee Democrat / NoleSports.com comprehensively covers all things Florida State athletics and the university at-large.

— All-name team nominee: S Lamarcus Brutus.

UP NEXT

— Who is No. 7? This program has one season with double-digit wins during the last 14 years.

2013 TEAM OVERVIEW

— Conference: ACC, Atlantic

— Location: Tallahassee, Fla.

— Nickname: Seminoles

— Returning starters: 10 (6 offense, 4 defense)

— Last year's ranking: No. 3

— 2012 record: 12-2 (7-1)

— Last year's re-ranking: No. 10

— 2013 schedule:

Sept. 2 at Pittsburgh

Sept. 14 Nevada

Sept. 21 Bethune-Cookman

Sept. 27 at Boston College

Oct. 5 Maryland

Oct. 19 at Clemson

Oct. 26 North Carolina State

Nov. 2 Miami (Fla.)

Nov. 9 at Wake Forest

Nov. 16 Syracuse

Nov. 23 Idaho

Nov. 30 at Florida

Paul Myerberg, a national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports, is on Twitter @PaulMyerberg.