Alabama primary 50 delegates (21 district, 29 statewide)

Alabama’s history, polling and delegate rules together suggest that it might be Donald Trump’s best state in the Deep South. Alabama lacks a truly major metropolitan area — unlike Georgia, which has Atlanta (where Marco Rubio should do well) — and has in the past elected outsiders to high government positions (see Gov. Robert Bentley, who voted for Rick Santorum in 2012). Alabama’s delegate rules can best be described as “winner-take-most.” Under that system, if a candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote in a congressional district or is the only candidate to receive over 20 percent of the vote, he will receive all three of the delegates available there. Trump will have a difficult time hitting 50 percent, but he will likely win two of the three delegates in districts where he finishes first, as long as he and the second-place finisher each receive at least 20 percent. (The runner-up will get the other district delegate.) If a candidate earns more than 50 percent of the statewide vote, he will receive all 29 of the statewide delegates. However, if no one reaches that mark, all candidates with over 20 percent statewide will get a proportional share of those 29.