

Florida Presidential Primary Preference: Florida Likely Republican

Primary Voters Jan 29-30

2012 Gingrich 31% Paul 9% Romney 43% Santorum 13% Other 1% Undecided 3% Mitt Romney continues to lead the Florida Republican presidential primary. Romney leads with 43%, followed by Newt Gingrich with 31%, Rick Santorum with 13%, and Ron Paul with 9%. In a similar survey conducted January 27-28, 2012, Romney was at 43% and Gingrich was at 32%. A total of 36% of Republican primary voters say that they have already voted by absentee ballot or in early voting. Of this group of voters, Romney leads with 51%, followed by Gingrich with 29%, Santorum with 12%, and Paul with 8%. Among the 64% of the remaining likely Republican primary voters, Romney leads with 39%, followed by Gingrich with 32%, Santorum with 14%, and Paul with 10%. Based on the votes already cast through absentee ballots and early voting and assuming Romney holds his vote, Gingrich would need to receive 51% of the votes cast on election day to tie Romney at 43%. That represents all of the undecided vote plus Ron Paul's expected vote on election day or 71% of Santorum's expected vote on election day. Gingrich leads with 38% among likely Republican primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party, followed by Romney with 35% and Santorum with 17%. Among likely primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 52%, followed by Gingrich with 23%, Paul with 15%, and Santorum with 8%. Romney leads among men with 37%, followed by Gingrich with 33%, and Paul and Santorum with 12% each. Romney leads with 49% among women, followed by Gingrich with 26% and Santorum with 14%. Comparison to Past Surveys: Florida Likely Republican

Primary Voters May 2011 Jul 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Jan 13-15

2012 Jan 23-24

2012 Jan 27-28

2012 Jan 29-30

2012 Bachmann 5% 15% 3% 1% ni ni ni ni Cain 4% 11% 34% 10% ni ni ni ni Daniels 3% ni ni ni ni ni ni ni Gingrich 11% 3% 11% 50% 25% 34% 32% 31% Giuliani 6% 7% ni ni ni ni ni ni Huckabee 14% ni ni ni ni ni ni ni Huntsman - 1% 1% 3% 5% ni ni ni Johnson - - - - ni ni ni ni Palin 9% 13% ni ni ni ni ni ni Ron Paul 1% 4% 4% 2% 8% 7% 8% 9% Pawlenty 1% 1% ni ni ni ni ni ni Perry ni 16% 5% 2% 3% ni ni ni Roemer - - 1% 1% ni ni ni ni Romney 26% 15% 28% 19% 42% 41% 43% 43% Santorum 1% 1% 1% 1% 9% 9% 11% 13% Trump 7% ni ni ni ni ni ni ni Other 1% 1% - 1% 1% 3% 1% 1% Undecided 11% 12% 12% 10% 8% 6% 5% 3% Preference by absentee/early voting: Florida Likely Republican

Primary Voters Voted (36%) Not voted yet (64%) Gingrich 29% 32% Paul 8% 10% Romney 51% 39% Santorum 12% 14% Other - 1% Undecided - 4% Preference by Tea Party support: Florida Likely Republican

Primary Voters Supporter (53%) Not/Undecided (47%) Gingrich 38% 23% Paul 4% 15% Romney 35% 52% Santorum 17% 8% Other 1% 1% Undecided 5% 1% Preference by Sex: Florida Likely Republican

Primary Voters Male (51%) Female (49%) Gingrich 33% 29% Paul 12% 6% Romney 37% 49% Santorum 12% 14% Other 1% 1% Undecided 5% 1% About this Survey - Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc. The American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since 1985. Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in Florida (600 registered Republicans). Sample Dates: January 29-30, 2012 Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split. An "*" in the tables indicates responses of less than 1/2 of 1 percent. Question Wording: If the 2012 Republican presidential preference primary were being held today between (names rotated) Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote? Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not? Using a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you will definitely not vote in the 2012 Republican presidential primary and 10 meaning that you will definitely vote in the 2012 Republican presidential primary, what number would you give as your chance of voting in the 2012 Republican presidential primary?