Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.

Poll(s) of the week

We know that former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren are popular among Democratic voters. But how do they fare among the general public? A recent poll from Gallup shows that opinions about this trio are far more mixed among all Americans than they are among Democrats. And relative to previous high-profile candidates, they don’t seem to be as popular. Gallup’s poll found that the net favorability (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) of these leading Democrats was roughly even or negative among the general electorate, with Sanders at +1, Biden at -1 and Warren at -5. Granted, we found that none of them are as unpopular as Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump were at this point in the 2016 cycle, but they’re also not as favorably viewed as George W. Bush in 2000, Barack Obama in 2008, or even Rudy Giuliani in 2008.

We looked at non-incumbent candidates’ favorability ratings in each cycle dating back to 2000, focusing on the last four months of the year before the election. We found that Biden, Sanders and Warren are less well-liked than many well-known presidential contenders from the past two decades. These numbers could be a red flag for Democrats looking ahead to the general election or a product of our increasingly polarized politics. You can see that since 2008, many candidates’ net favorability ratings have been negative or close to zero.

Biden, Sanders, Warren aren’t as popular as past candidates Average net favorability ratings (favorable rating average minus unfavorable rating average) of well-known presidential candidates* in national polls from the last four months of the year preceding the primary, 2000 to 2020 Candidate cycle party Fav Avg Unfav Avg Net George W. Bush 2000 R 56.2% 23.4% +32.7 Barack Obama 2008 D 49.3 29.8 +19.5 John McCain 2008 R 45.3 31.2 +14.0 John Edwards 2008 D 45.5 32.5 +13.0 Rudy Giuliani 2008 R 47.5 35.2 +12.2 Al Gore 2000 D 43.2 39.0 +4.2 Hillary Clinton 2008 D 47.5 45.5 +2.0 Mitt Romney 2012 R 37.5 35.8 +1.7 Elizabeth Warren 2020 D 39.8 40.2 -0.4 Joe Biden 2020 D 43.4 44.3 -0.8 Bernie Sanders 2020 D 43.6 45.2 -1.6 Hillary Clinton 2016 D 41.9 50.9 -9.0 Newt Gingrich 2012 R 30.8 45.3 -14.5 Jeb Bush 2016 R 30.8 51.1 -20.3 Donald Trump 2016 R 32.6 58.7 -26.1 Data does not include incumbent presidents. Additionally, we only included candidates for whom at least 75 percent of respondents had an opinion (the lone exception is Mitt Romney, who was within two points of the threshold, but as the 2012 Republican nominee, we included him). In 2004, no Democratic candidate was close to clearing the 75 percent threshold. When a poll presented multiple observations, larger sample populations were prioritized, such as adults over registered voters or registered voters over likely voters. *Data for 2020 candidates is from polls released through Nov. 20, 2019. Source: Polls

By comparison, the top-tier candidates in the 2000 and 2008 campaigns all had net positive favorability ratings at this point — some of them quite high, too. Bush, for instance, had by far the strongest numbers of any candidate, at +33 points. Obama, John McCain, John Edwards and Giuliani also had net favorability ratings higher than +10. Al Gore and Clinton were closer to an even net favorability rating, but they were still viewed somewhat positively.

But a candidate’s favorability ratings at this point don’t necessarily line up with election results — a lot can change between now and next November. For instance, while Bush was viewed more favorably than Gore in late 1999, they fought out the 2000 election to a near-draw, which in the end was decided in Bush’s favor by an incredibly narrow margin in Florida. And in 2016, Trump won the presidency over Clinton despite being viewed less favorably, which remained true through Election Day.

The good news for Democrats is that Americans like Trump even less. Gallup’s poll found Trump’s net favorability at -18, far below the three leading Democratic contenders. So, in other words, as long as the Democratic nominee wins over those who view the president negatively, even an unpopular nominee could still have a pretty good shot at winning. Still, Democrats could find themselves in trouble if the election becomes a race to the bottom, where both Trump and the Democratic nominee are heavily disliked. Exit polls in 2016 found that Trump still won 15 percent of voters who had an unfavorable opinion of him, as he was likely aided by the fact that Clinton was also viewed pretty negatively.

Other polling bites

Trump approval

According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 41.9 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 53.6 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -11.7 points). At this time last week, 41.2 percent approved and 54.5 percent disapproved (for a net approval rating of -13.3 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 41.2 percent and a disapproval rating of 54.5 percent, for a net approval rating of -13.3 points.

Generic ballot

In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 5.8 percentage points (46.8 percent to 41 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 5.7 points (46.8 percent to 41.1 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 6.3 points (46.6 percent to 40.3 percent).