WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve, already exhausted after a year of missteps in the spotlight, has one last trick to pull off before it exits the stage — getting out of the controversial bond-buying business without causing long-term interest rates to soar.

“The Fed wants to gracefully exit [quantitative easing] while holding down bond yields for another year,” said Avery Shenfeld, chief economist of CIBC World Markets.

The Fed hasn’t settled on how to do this — several ideas seem to be under active consideration — and this could delay any taper of its $85 billion-a-month bond purchase program until next year, Shenfeld said.

Mark Gertler, a New York University economist who worked closely with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, agreed with Shenfeld.

He said U.S. central bankers already think long-term interest rates are higher than they should be at this stage of the recovery.

“They are trying to pick the right stage of the recovery” to taper, and where interest rates are is a big factor, Gertler said.

The labor market remains weak and inflation is well-below target, Gertler said.

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes spiked this summer when markets believed Bernanke was signalling an imminent tapering.

Although yields have come down since the initial alarm over tapering but have not returned to prior low levels.

Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, said the Fed is struggling to communicate because the bond-buying program is an experiment.

“They can’t provide more clarity,” he said.

The central bank has been surprised at what has attracted the spotlight and moved markets throughout the three rounds of asset purchase programs, he noted.

Fed officials have spent the last few months explaining the misstep. Signs of fatigue are beginning to show.

“If the members of the [Fed’s policy making committee] could manage to get themselves to once again be thought of as humble, competent people on the level of dentists, that would be splendid” said Richard Fisher, the president of the Dallas Fed, in a recent speech, paraphrasing John Maynard Keynes.

Some allies of the Fed, including Harvard economist Martin Feldstein, are calling on Congress and the White House to take the burden of stimulating the economy away from the Fed.

“If Congress and the Obama administration could agree on a fiscal stimulus that goes beyond a short-term budget deal,” the Fed would be able to exit QE, Feldstein argued in a recent New York Times op-ed. He called for a $1 trillion spending plan over the next five years.

Many on the Fed likely agree with this analysis, Shenfeld said.

But it is likely to fall on deaf ears .

“Congress will never go for that,” Shenfeld said.

The Fed has to be a bit “comforted” in recent weeks because, despite growing expectations of a tapering in coming months, the long-end has not sold off, Shenfeld said.

One way for the Fed to send a dovish signal could be to cut interest rates paid to banks on excess reserves. The rate is now 0.25%. Minutes of the Fed’s October meeting show that a reduction in the rate was under discussion.

The Fed could also strengthen its forward guidance that it is intent on keeping short-term rates low for longer.

The Fed has already said it won’t consider raising short-term interest rates until the unemployment rate falls below 6.5%, and it could push this threshold lower. Bernanke has already hinted that the central bank could wait much longer after the 6.5% rate is reached.

The central bank could also add an inflation “floor,” saying the central bank would not hike rates as long as inflation remains well below the 2% target.

If it makes no move next week, the Fed will “want to keep prepping the market” for a taper in early 2014, Shenfeld said. At the same time, they will want to emphasize that they will not tolerate sharply higher bond yields.

Gertler thinks the Fed may keep relatively quiet even though Bernanke will hold a press conference after the meeting.

“They’ve learned their lesson about not saying too much,” he said.

“My hunch is they will do the simplest thing — lay out the criteria and financial conditions where they think a tapering is warranted,” Gertler said.

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