Intel's share price has stalled, its core business is in decline and the pace of its technological advancement has slowed.

And yet the chipmaker sees a massive opportunity.

According to internal documents reviewed by The Oregonian/OregonLive, Intel believes it's on the cusp of overcoming the kind of technological disruption that felled other aging tech giants, like Sun Microsystems and Yahoo. It hopes to increase its market value by 75 percent over the next five years, to $300 billion.

"That's what we see as the possibility, or the art of the possible, for the company," Chief Financial Officer Bob Swan told employees in August during a meeting at Intel's Ronler Acres campus in Hillsboro.

The documents provide a rare, inside look at where the company thinks it's going and will serve as a yardstick of its progress. They show that Intel is counting on rapid growth in data center sales and preparing for slow declines in its largest market, PCs. The company also is counting on extraordinary growth in its memory chip group and continued cost cutting across the business.

When The Oregonian/OregonLive reported on Swan's meeting last month, he referenced the growth plans only in passing. He also acknowledged that a series of layoffs has undermined employee confidence, but that more staff reductions are necessary.

And yet Intel evidently believes it has significant growth potential. The documents show it aims to boost its market value from $170 billion today to $300 billion by the end of 2021. In the same period, it hopes to increase profits from the $2.12 a share recorded last year to nearly $4.

"We have the ability in this journey to roughly double the value of the firm," Swan told employees in the finance group when describing the plan.

Intel in 2021

Internal documents show Intel plans to increase its market value to $300 billion over five years. Here's what the company would look like in 2021:

Earnings per share

: $4, up from $2.12 in 2016

Spending

: 30% of revenue, compared with 35% in 2016

Growth, by segment over five years:

* Data centers: Up 10% annually

* Client computing group (PCs and mobile): Down 1% annually

* Memory: Up 33% annually

* Internet of Things: Up 13% annually

Source: Internal Intel documents

Intel and other large, publicly traded companies typically forecast results three to 12 months in advance. They rarely issue a five-year forecast, and Intel hasn't publicly discussed its plans for boosting market value.

Intel declined to comment, but the documents and Swan's remarks to employees offer unusual insight on the company's long-term strategy.

They describe an aggressive goal, which projects Intel's market value will grow at a compound, annual rate of more than 11 percent over the five-year period. That compares with 6 percent growth over the prior five years, a period of prolonged macroeconomic growth.

And Intel will have to overcome continued weakness in the PC market, which accounts for more than half its sales. It could also face a more competitive environment in its most profitable segment, the data center business.

The Oregonian/OregonLive shared Intel's internal aspirations with three industrial and financial analysts who follow the company, and they split on whether the chipmaker's goals are attainable. Some doubt Intel can grow as profitably as it has in the past.

A more optimistic view holds that the tech industry is on the cusp of revolutions in computer networking, autonomous driving and artificial intelligence, and that Intel has positioned itself well to profit.

"To be a $300 billion (company), only one of those have to hit to get there," said Patrick Moorhead, president and principal analyst of Moor Insights and Strategy.

Though Intel's headquarters are in California, its largest operations are in Washington County. Intel is the state's largest economic engine, employing more than 19,000, and Oregon's future is very closely tied to Intel's.

One of the world's largest tech companies, Intel is also among the most profitable. It holds near monopolies on the market for microprocessors that provide the brains inside PCs and the high-powered computers that run large data centers.

Yet Intel's growth has been uneven in recent years, as the PC market fades and consumers move to mobile devices. Demand from data centers remains strong, but in recent quarters Intel has rarely hit the double-digit growth rate it long targeted.

Additionally, the pace of advancement in computer chip technology has slowed considerably as the microscopic features on semiconductors bump up against the laws of physics. That has limited Intel's ability to capitalize on a once commanding lead in chip technology.

So while the tech industry has been growing robustly over the past few years, Intel has been largely left out of the expansion. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange's semiconductor index is up 80 percent over the past two years. But Intel shares are up just 22 percent during that time.

Earlier this year, Samsung passed Intel as the world's largest chipmaker. Intel eliminated 15,000 jobs last year, the biggest restructuring in it history, to prepare for long-term decline in its core PC market.

"I think they're in a tough spot. It doesn't mean it's a bad company. I don't know what I would do in their place," said Stacy Rasgon, a Wall Street analyst who follows Intel for Sanford C. Bernstein.

Consistently bearish on Intel's prospects, Rasgon said he has a lot of skepticism about the company's $300 billion target. The PC market is in decline and the data center market is growing more competitive, he said. And other prospective businesses don't offer the huge profit margins Intel enjoyed in its mature markets.

"There's nothing they can grow into that's as good as the stuff they've already been in," Rasgon said.

Intel's path to $300 billion is a combination of spending constraints and revenue growth - two goals that could work in opposition.

For example, Intel wants to put a tight lid on spending over the next two years, as it works to bring its overall expenses down to its historical level of 30 percent of revenue. According to the internal documents, that means strict limits on marketing and research expenses - two areas that are crucial to growing revenue.

Even as Intel ratchets back its costs, it anticipates accelerated growth in some key sectors - especially in the nascent field of the Internet of Things and the mature market for memory technology.

IoT describes wearable computers, connected appliances and industrial equipment. It's a small part of Intel's business now, but grew nearly 15 percent last year. If Intel can maintain that pace, it'll reach its targets.

The memory business represents a more ambitious goal. A tiny part of current sales, Intel hopes to quadruple its memory revenue by the end of 2021 to nearly $11 billion annually, based on the targeted growth rate in Intel's internal documents.

Intel believes it has developed a memory technology that could displace conventional flash memory, which might contribute to its growth rate. But it's a mature market and a notoriously cyclical one.

"I don't know that I would bank on memory. It's a very risky business," said Jim McGregor, a veteran Intel watcher with TIRIAS Research in Arizona.

McGregor said Intel's data center goals - 10 percent annual growth - are more realistic given the industry's voracious demand for memory technology. But he said the company's plan to hold its PC and mobile group to just a 1 percent annual decline might be too much to ask for given that the market is both declining and getting more competitive with new technology from AMD.

But Intel's biggest issue, in McGregor's view, might be the economic cycle. Intel grew slowly during the long economic expansion that followed the Great Recession, and McGregor said it's asking a lot to expect Intel's market value to soar to $300 billion if the broader economy slows - or goes south.

"Within the next five years we're going to have another downturn," McGregor said. "That's going to reset expectations and that's going to reset that goal."

To Moorhead, the Moor Insights researcher, Intel's future is more about technological opportunity. He said Intel has made prudent acquisitions in the past two years, buying programmable chip company Altera, artificial intelligence specialist Nervana, and the Israeli autonomous driving pioneer Mobileye.

Those augment Intel's existing businesses, Moorhead said, and position Intel for promising new opportunities. He said each of the acquisitions came with an established customer base, positioning the company to grow quickly as each new technology advances.

"They're still hitting areas where there's value," Moorhead said, "and they're bringing a complete platform to the table."

-- Mike Rogoway; twitter: @rogoway; 503-294-7699