Russia will soon become an axis of conflict between President-elect Donald Trump and the U.S. Senate. Trump may have a difficult time securing Senate confirmation for Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson, his pick for secretary of state, because of Tillerson’s ties to Vladimir Putin and Exxon Mobil’s business interests in Russia. Furthermore, the Senate may soon launch an inquiry into possible Russian interference in the presidential election, something that Trump opposes.

Russia hasn’t been a focal point for policymaking in the Senate over the past several years outside of a few resolutions passed by unanimous consent. Therefore, there aren’t a lot of votes to indicate which senators might take the most hawkish positions toward Russia. However, we can look at two recent developments to get a sense for which senators might be most willing to hold the line against Trump.

First was a letter co-sponsored by Republican Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio and Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois that urged Trump to “continue America’s tradition of support for the people of Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.” The letter, a pre-emptive rebuke toward potential Trump dovishness on Russia, was signed by 12 Republican senators and 15 Democrats, counting Portman and Durbin.

Then there’s the investigation into possible Russian meddling in the election, which today was (somewhat grudgingly) endorsed by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. I searched news accounts and each senator’s Twitter feed and came up with a list of 16 Republican senators or senators-elect who have expressed support for such an investigation, including 13 who have done so since the Nov. 8 election.

The list isn’t necessarily comprehensive, since many senators have not been weighing in on the idea of an investigation until the past few days. It’s hard to find senators who are openly opposed to such an investigation, in fact, although a few, such as Texas Sen. John Cornyn, have downplayed the potential importance of Russia’s influence on the campaign.

Still, the senators who both called for an investigation and signed the Ukraine letter make for a preliminary list of Russia hawks. Seven Republicans fit this bill:

SENATOR STATE SIGNED UKRAINE LETTER? SUPPORTS INVESTIGATION INTO POTENTIAL RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE? SOURCE John McCain Arizona Yes Yes http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/john-mccain-russian-hacking-232481 Cory Gardner Colorado Yes Yes http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-faces-early-test-republicans-russia-44135349 Marco Rubio Florida Yes Yes http://www.nbcnews.com/feature/meet-the-press-24-7/meet-press-november-27-2016-n688791 Pat Roberts Kansas Yes Yes http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article120396548.html Rob Portman Ohio Yes Yes https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/effort-to-combat-foreign-propaganda-advances-in-congress/2016/11/30/9147e1ac-e221-47be-ab92-9f2f7e69d452_story.html?utm_term=.b4baa158df39 Lindsey Graham South Carolina Yes Yes http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/10/politics/lindsey-graham-russia-democracy/ Ron Johnson Wisconsin Yes Yes https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/12/11/key-gop-senators-join-call-for-bipartisan-russia-election-probe-even-as-their-leaders-remain-mum/?utm_term=.3a059ebf46e4 Jerry Moran Kansas No Yes http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article120396548.html Mitch McConnell Kentucky No Yes http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/12/us/politics/mcconnell-supports-inquiry-of-russian-hacking-during-election.html?_r=0 Rand Paul Kentucky No Yes http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/democratic-gop-senators-russian-hacking-cannot-become-a-partisan-issue-232475 Susan Collins Maine No Yes https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/12/11/key-gop-senators-join-call-for-bipartisan-russia-election-probe-even-as-their-leaders-remain-mum/?utm_term=.ac3c56d66c1e James Lankford Oklahoma No Yes https://twitter.com/SenatorLankford/status/808109863595364352 Bob Corker Tennessee No Yes https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/12/08/republicans-ready-to-launch-wide-ranging-probe-of-russia-despite-trumps-stance/?utm_term=.0c0644c1d6ff Chuck Grassley Iowa No Yes, before election http://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/news-releases/grassley-leahy-press-federal-investigators-breach-democratic-national-committee Deb Fischer Nebraska No Yes, before election http://bigstory.ap.org/article/3630d0dc1d034cc2a33e287008edfb89/top-democrats-say-theyve-concluded-russia-behind-hacks Ben Sasse Nebraska No Yes, before election http://www.sasse.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2016/10/sasse-statement-on-russia-hacks John Boozman Arkansas Yes No clear public position Johnny Isakson Georgia Yes No clear public position Jim Risch Idaho Yes No clear public position Jim Inhofe Oklahoma Yes No clear public position John Barrasso Wyoming Yes No clear public position Which Republicans are Russia hawks? Highlighted senators are members of the Foreign Relations Committee

There aren’t a lot of surprises on that list. It includes three of the most well-known Russia hawks in the Senate — Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, John McCain of Arizona and Marco Rubio of Florida — along with Cory Gardner of Colorado, one of the few Republicans to represent a state won by Hillary Clinton. There’s also Portman, Pat Roberts of Kansas and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin.

Three of those Republicans — Rubio, Gardner and Johnson — are members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, which will vote on State Department nominees before their names go to the entire Senate. Republicans will have just a one-seat advantage on the committee, so any GOP defections could potentially scuttle Tillerson’s confirmation.





FiveThirtyEight: Trump’s precarious position on Russia

Moreover, there’s a longer list of Republican senators, including several on the Foreign Relations Committee, who either signed the Ukraine letter or called for an investigation into Russian hacking but not both, suggesting that opposition to Trump on Russia could grow depending on how he manages the politics of the issue.

Could any Democrats side with Trump on Russia — or on Tillerson — in the event of Republican defections? That’s harder to say because Democrats haven’t necessarily felt the need to declare their support for the Russia investigation since the default is presumably that they’d be happy to go along with it (incoming Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer supports the investigation). Still, here’s the list of Democratic responses we’ve identified so far:

SENATOR STATE SIGNED UKRAINE LETTER? SUPPORTS INVESTIGATION INTO POTENTIAL RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE? SOURCE Chris Murphy Connecticut Yes Yes https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/effort-to-combat-foreign-propaganda-advances-in-congress/2016/11/30/9147e1ac-e221-47be-ab92-9f2f7e69d452_story.html?utm_term=.41e613e8f2c3 Ben Cardin Maryland Yes Yes http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/12/12/mcconnell-says-congress-probe-russian-election-hack/95331688/ Gary Peters Michigan Yes Yes http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/chuck-schumer-russia-senate-election-inquiry-232464 Amy Klobuchar Minnesota Yes Yes https://twitter.com/amyklobuchar/status/808171774429003777 Jeanne Shaheen New Hampshire Yes Yes http://www.nh1.com/news/sen-jeanne-shaheen-responds-to-reports-of-russian-interference-in-election/ Bob Menendez New Jersey Yes Yes http://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/latino-lawmakers-congress-must-investigate-russia-s-role-election-n694996 Sherrod Brown Ohio Yes Yes http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/national-govt–politics/ohio-republicans-join-call-for-election-probe/qfqiQl1XolequUYS2Mn1aI/?ecmp=daytondaily_social_twitter_2014_politics_sfp Jack Reed Rhode Island Yes Yes https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/12/11/key-gop-senators-join-call-for-bipartisan-russia-election-probe-even-as-their-leaders-remain-mum/?utm_term=.9c8126c4f24c Chris Coons Delaware Yes Yes, before election http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/democrats-ted-cruz-hearing-russia/2016/08/03/id/742004/ Sheldon Whitehouse Rhode Island Yes Yes, before election http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/democrats-ted-cruz-hearing-russia/2016/08/03/id/742004/ Dianne Feinstein California No Yes http://goldrushcam.com/sierrasuntimes/index.php/news/local-news/8423-senator-dianne-feinstein-issues-statement-on-white-house-review-of-russian-hacking-activities Mazie Hirono Hawaii No Yes https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/30/senators-hint-russian-interference-us-presidential-election Angus King Maine No Yes https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/30/senators-hint-russian-interference-us-presidential-election Debbie Stabenow Michigan No Yes http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/chuck-schumer-russia-senate-election-inquiry-232464 Claire McCaskill Missouri No Yes http://www.mediaite.com/tv/mccaskill-on-russian-hacking-this-is-a-form-of-warfare/ Cory Booker New Jersey No Yes http://www.heraldnet.com/news/schumer-urges-a-non-partisan-russian-hacking-investigation/ Martin Heinrich New Mexico No Yes https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/30/senators-hint-russian-interference-us-presidential-election Tom Udall New Mexico No Yes https://twitter.com/SenatorTomUdall/status/807753206977662976 Chuck Schumer New York No Yes https://twitter.com/SenSchumer/status/808342742669688832?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Ron Wyden Oregon No Yes https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/30/senators-hint-russian-interference-us-presidential-election Mark Warner Virginia No Yes https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/30/senators-hint-russian-interference-us-presidential-election Patrick Leahy Vermont No Yes http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/12/12/mcconnell-says-congress-probe-russian-election-hack/95331688/ Bernie Sanders Vermont No Yes http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/309860-sanders-for-trump-to-summarily-dismiss-russian-interference-makes-no-sense Patty Murray Washington No Yes http://www.murray.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/newsreleases?ID=236A5253-80B6-4279-B9F0-F4B65AD49018 Chris Van Hollen Maryland No Yes, before election https://www.yahoo.com/news/chris-van-hollen-russian-dnc-000000889.html Richard Blumenthal Connecticut Yes No clear public position Dick Durbin Illinois Yes No clear public position Kirsten Gillibrand New York Yes No clear public position Jeff Merkley Oregon Yes No clear public position Bob Casey Pennsylvania Yes No clear public position Which Democrats and independents are Russia hawks? Highlighted senators are members of the Foreign Relations Committee

Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, probably the two most likely Democrats to support Trump, have neither signed the Ukraine letter nor taken a clear position on the investigation. Both come from states that rely heavily on energy production, which could make them more inclined to support Tillerson, the Exxon Mobil CEO.

Overall, however, Tillerson looks like a potentially challenging confirmation for Trump, especially if Trump is simultaneously burning political capital by opposing the Senate’s investigation into Russian election interference. Rubio, Graham and McCain have already expressed reservations on Tillerson, which would be enough to kill the nomination before the full Senate unless some Democrats voted for him.

One final consideration: Trump and his transition team have been coy about whether they actually plan to nominate Tillerson, so his name might just be a trial balloon or a decoy of sorts for Trump to stake out a negotiating position. For instance, if Trump were interested in choosing former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton as secretary of state, who himself could face a difficult nomination, retreating from Tillerson after floating his name could make Bolton appear to be more of a compromise choice.