When it comes to free agency in 2019, the story for the Lions is one of those classic "good news, bad news" stories. The good news is that the Lions don't have to sign a large number of players, so they won't have to add a half-dozen of the backup-type of player that GM Bob Quinn has added in previous years. The bad news is that the Lions' usable cap space isn't as much as many fans seem to think it is.

This article has three sections: 1) clearing up confusion about the Lions' cap space; 2) breaking down the salary cap step by step to show what financial parameters Bob Quinn is dealing with in building the team roster; 3) one proposed strategy for the Lions can upgrade and round out their roster in FA with their limited salary cap space. That last part is way at the end, so if you aren't interested in the preliminary stuff, just scroll down and take a look at my FA targets.

1) The elusive salary cap figure

A frequent problem is that both reporters and some PoD posters use different figures that aren't necessarily wrong, but are confusing when the writer doesn't spell out how he arrived at his figures. There are at least three variable factors that lead to different cap space totals: 1) whether the cap space being cited is before or after certain projected salary cap casualty roster cuts; 2) whether the given dollar figure includes or excludes the not-yet-signed contracts of the incoming draft class; 3) which players should realistically be counted in the Top 51 contracts under the league-mandated salary cap formula.

Regarding Factor #1: Any time you read an analysis or opinion about the Lions' alleged cap space, it is essential that the writer makes clear which players and player contracts he is including in his computations. Those assumptions make a big difference.

Regarding Factor #2: You might have noticed wha

t seemed like a weird glitch on spotrac.com - the website I use as the reference to look up the Lions' salary cap situation (another such site is overthecap.com) - at yearend. Their listed salary cap for the Lions dropped $9 Mn virtually overnight even though no player transactions had occurred. I haven't been able to verify this, but my guess is that they reduced their figures for available cap space when they began to count the $8.4 Mn that the Lions would have to spend (according to need to know if someone talking about the Lions' cap space is including those yet-to-be-executed rookie contracts or not.

Regarding Factor #3: This third variable is the one that causes the most problems. The salary cap information on spotrac.com or overthecap.com lists and tabulates all the current player contracts for 2019. Those figures are both completely correct while simultaneously being inaccurate and misleading. Why? Because the current Top 51 includes the contracts of over a dozen players on the practice squad or who have been signed to futures contracts, but who most definitely will not be on the Lions roster in September. Right now, they are just placeholders. They count toward the salary cap today, but are destined to be replaced before the regular season starts by other players with different contracts. Yes, a couple of the current placeholders may make the roster, but if the Lions field a team in September with Kerwynn Williams, Nicholas Grigsby, Brandon Reilly, Eric Lee, Jerome Cunningham, Dee Virgin, Deontez Alexander, Garret Dooley, David Jones, and Jarron Jones on the roster and counting as 10 of the Top 51 contracts, half the Lions' fan base will abandon the team. (Don't worry - it isn't going to happen.)

2) Building the Lions' roster while keeping under the salary cap

It's easy to look at a team's published salary cap space and think that they'll be able to take all that money (less some set aside as an emergency fund) and make a big splash in free agency. In practice, it isn't that simple. If a team currently has, say, 32 players under contract who are good enough to make the roster, $40 Mn of cap space doesn't mean a GM can sign four top-notch starters for an average of $10 Mn apiece. Using all of a team's cap space to add four players to an existing roster of 32 players would leave a team with 36 players and no cap space left. Obviously, that isn't going to happen.

Fortunately, the Lions are in an uncommonly favorable position going into free agency this year. Indeed, in 2019 Bob Quinn is in the least complicated position he will be in for the next few years. Here is why: I can't think of a single player among the top 20 that the Lions are counting on for the upcoming season who isn't under contract already. By contrast, next year Quinn will have to figure out who to re-sign and who to let go when Decker, Glasgow, A'Shawn, Riddick, Christian Jones, Lawson, Tavon Wilson, Wiggins, Dahl, and Killebrew all are in line to become free agents. Even if you say, "Just let the last seven of those guys walk," Quinn will still have to wrestle with how much to pay to keep three key linemen or whether to let them walk and search for replacements. Two years from now will be even more challenging. That is when contracts will expire for nine key players - Marvin Jones, Golladay, Prater, Martin, Slay, Harrison, Kennard, Davis, and Agnew. THAT offseason is going to be a headache for Bob Quinn to negotiate.

OK, let's go through the Lions' roster and salaries and look at what Quinn is looking at as he goes about assembling this year's roster with its "Top 51" salaries to fit under the salary cap. The starting point is to identify the players currently under contract who will be on the roster this season and tabulate the salary cap space that each of their contracts consumes. The lists that follow (offense, special teams, defense) are my educated guesses about which players currently under contract are expected to be on the field next fall. Each player's 2019 salary cap hit is listed, too. An asterisk designates players who are potential salary cap cuts, with those potential savings listed.

[Note: I have rounded off the individual contracts and other salary cap-related figures, so my overall sums could be off by a few hundred thousand dollars - a rounding error in today's NFL.]

Currently signed players on offense

1. Stafford $29.5 Mn

2. Wagner $11.9

* 3. Lang $11.5 or $2.7 dead cap money (potential savings $8.8)

4. Marvin $9.2

*5. Riddick $4.4 or $1 (potential savings: $3.4)

6. Decker $3.5

*7. Wiggins $3.1 or $.4 (potential savings: $2.7)

8. Ragnow $2.7

9. Kerryon $1.5

10. Glasgow $.9

11. Golladay $.85

12. Roberts $.8

13. Dahl $.8

14. Crosby $.65

15. Connor Cook $.65

16. Powell $.57

17. Andy Jones. $.64

I'm 99% certain that the first 14 of those players will be on the roster if they don't become salary cap casualties. As for the last three, who knows? Powell and Andy Jones in particular I am using as placeholders who could easily lose their roster spots to other players. But it is virtually certain that the Lions will have a few players on their roster who will play for Powell or Jones-type money (they could be players currently from last year's practice squad, players signed to a futures contract, undrafted free agents, or castoffs from another team) and we'll just have to wait until after the last pre-season game to find out which ones.

At this point, the roster projection includes 17 players on offense under contract for $83 Mn. I'm willing to bet there will be at least one salary cap casualty from this list, but I will address that issue later.

Currently signed players on special teams

The Lions currently have three kickers under contract (two punters - Martin and Santoso) and I'm going to assume they keep Martin, cut Santoso, and bring back Muhl:

Prater $3.4

*Martin $3 (potential savings of $1.5 Mn if they replace Martin -- $2 Mn cap space saved -- less Santoso's contract of $.5 Mn)

Muhlbach $1.1

Subtotal: $7.5Mn for three special teams players

That makes 20 players under contract for $90.5 Mn

Currently signed players on defense

What follows is my guess of which defensive players currently under contract will make the 53-man roster. As on offense, there is at least one placeholder - Mike Ford - who could easily be supplanted by another player, and there are likely to be salary cap casualties (addressed below) but for now, here is how the roster looks on defense:

Slay $16 Mn

*Quin $7.9 or $1.7 dead cap money (potential savings: $6.2)

Harrison $7

Kennard $5.7

Diggs $5.4

*Lawson $5.2 or $1.1 (potential savings: $4.1)

*C Jones $3.9 or $.9 (potential savings: $3)

*Tavon W. $3.8 or $.9 (potential savings: $2.9)

Jarrad D. $3

A'Shawn R. $1.7

Tabor $1.3

*Killebrew $.86 or $.14 (potential savings: $.72)

Walker $.85

JRM $.8

Hand $.74

Agnew $.71

Mike Ford $.57

The total for defense: 17 players costing $65.3 Mn of cap space.

That brings the Lions' tentative projected roster to a count of 37 players currently under contract at a cost of $155.8 Mn.

The 2019 draft class

Let's optimistically project that 7 of the Lions 9 (so far!) draft picks make the roster. The projected cost of signing 8 draft picks (using the league pay scale for rookies) is $8.4 Mn. If Quinn somehow manages to draft 8 or 9 players that are all good enough to make the roster, he will be revered as the greatest drafter the Lions have ever had. However, I think it is more realistic that a couple of draftees end up on the practice squad, so I am assuming that 7 rather than 8 of the nine draftees will make the roster. Those seven would count $7.9 Mn toward the salary cap. Add those seven draftees to the 37 listed above and the Lions' roster now has 44 players at a cost of $163.7 Mn.

Taking a peak at the Lions' salary cap

The estimated salary cap for 2019 at this point is $189 Mn (the halfway point between the $187 and /$191.1 Mn range that the NFL has provided for guidance). To that, the Lions can add their carryover cap space from 2018 ($6.4 Mn) minus carryover dead money ($126K) for a salary cap total of $195.3 Mn. Subtract $163.7 Mn (the top 37 players under contract plus 7 draftees) from $195.3 Mn, and the Lions have $31.6 Mn to add 7 players to reach the Top 51 salaries counting toward the salary cap.

Here is how the Lions might go about adding the seven players they need to get to their Top 51 salaries:

3. A suggested strategy for the Lions in FA

The Lions ERFAs and RFA

These team-friendly contracts are a great way for the Lions to beef up their roster at favorable prices. The Lions can and should sign their two ERFAs (exclusive rights FAs), Steve Longa and Charles Washington for $0.63 and $0.55 respectively. Longa and C. Wash are core special teams players who can provide depth at other positions. After signing these two, the lions would have 46 players costing $164.9 Mn leaving $30.4 Mn of cap space.

Then they should offer their RFA, Romeo Okwara, a second-round tender costing $3.1 Mn. Others have said that Okwara is worth a first-round tender, which would cost an extra $1.3 Mn, I prefer a second-round tender. Besides being $1.3 Mn cheaper, it is more likely that another team would be willing to poach him from the Lions if they had to give up "only" a second-round draft pick instead of a first-rounder. That is actually what I hope would happen. If another team does sign Okwara, the Lions could replace him on the edge with a first- or second-round pick who might be just as good (maybe even better) at a lower cost that Okwara's $3.1 Mn AND the Lions would have an extra second-round pick that they could use to add an offensive playmaker. That seems like a net gain to me.

Now the Lions are up to 47 players costing $168 Mn, leaving $27.3 Mn of cap space. At this point, Quinn only needs to add six more players in FA to fill a 53-man roster (four more to reach the Top 51 contracts). I think he can do that by signing a mix of players who played for the Lions last year and players lured away from other teams.

FAs to target from the 2018 Lions roster

Looking at players who played for the Lions in 2018 but whose contracts have expired, it's time (IMHO) for the Lions to part ways with Ziggy, Blount, Cassel, TJ Jones, Luke Willson, Shead, Kelvin Sheppard, and Trevor Bates. Frankly, I am undecided about Ricky Jean Francois, Eli Harold Kerry Hyder, and Marcus Cooper, so I am not targeting them at this time.

The three currently unsigned 2018 Lions I'd like to see the team brig back for 2019 are Levine Toilolo, Zach Zenner, and Nick Bellore -- especially the first two. Now that they are free agents, we need to guess what it will cost to keep them.

1) Toilolo. Last year the Lions lost TE Darren Fells to Cleveland in FA when the Browns offered him $4Mn/yr. for 3 years. I imagine Toilolo's market value will be comparable to Fells, based on him being one of the better blocking tight ends in the league and becoming productive as a receiver late in the season. (Toilolo's PFF score was slightly higher than Fells' this past season.) I think Quinn should offer Toilolo the same deal that Fells got -- $4 Mn/yr. for three years.

2) Zenner. I've always been a fan of ZZ. He's a key ST player and currently the second-best RB on the roster. I think he'd be a steal at $2Mn. Maybe Quinn could sign him to a three-year deal @ $2.5 Mn per. I'd rather pay up a little rather than risk losing him to another team - especially with the lack of depth at RB.

3) Bellore. $1 Mn. His ST value and positional versatility are worth a million. (I realize that some of you would prefer Harold, Hyder, or someone else. That's fine with me - if the price is right.)

Spending $7.5 million to re-sign Toilolo, Zenner, and Bellore would bring the roster up to 50 players costing $175.5 Mn, leaving $18 Mn of salary cap space. Now remember that teams always keep a rainy day/emergency fund. Let's estimate Quinn wants to be conservative and hold $9 Mn in reserve. That would leave only $9 Mn to spend on adding one player from another team to complete the Lions' Top 51 for 201. Ouch!

Bob Quinn isn't going to be able to make a splash in FA with $9 Mn. At least, as I mentioned earlier, he won't need to sign a half-dozen second-stringers in FA to complete the roster this year. But clearly, the Lions need more money if they are to improve through FA, and the only way for them to raise more money is with salary cap cuts. Let's look at what it will take to sign free agents from other teams.

Free agents from other teams

Many have called for the Lions to cut ties with two fan favorites - TJ Lang and Glover Quin. I agree that, as sad as it is, the Lions need to move on. One possible exception: If Lang gets medical clearance to continue playing and wants to give it another try with his hometown team, I'd be willing to keep him on a restructured contract - say, $3 Mn guaranteed plus a $500,000 bonus for every game he plays in - but that doesn't seem likely. For now, I will proceed on the assumption that both Lang and Quin will be released.

Here's the problem: On the positive side, cutting those two would add $15 Mn of cap space ($8.8 for Lang, $6.2 for Quin). On the negative side, cutting those two would leave two gaping holes in the starting lineup that the Lions would need to replace. (You don't want Kenny Wiggins to be the starting right guard all next season, do you?) Quinn might use a Day One or Day Two pick on a guard, but because of other positional needs that need to be addressed in the draft, I would recommend trying to replace both Lang and Quin in FA. The two players I would target as their replacements are 49ers' G Mike Person and Cardinals' S Tre Boston.

FA target #1: Mike Person. (Number 1 doesn't mean I think he should be the number one priority, but he came up first here because we've just been talking about cutting and replacing Lang.)

Person flies under the radar, but, like Lang, he plays right guard. PFF ranks him as the NFL's #18 guard. That is a significant improvement over the current heir-apparent to Lang, Kenny Wiggins, who ranked as the #60 guard last season. Signing Person would upgrade the position and move Wiggins back to the backup role that is more suitable for him.

My estimate is that it will cost $6 Mn to sign Person. After all, he is ranked higher than the 49ers' other guard, Laken Tomlinson (PFF #27), and the ‘Niners are paying Tomlinson $5.5 Mn per year.

FA target #2. Tre Boston.

Boston is a playmaker. He's had 8 interceptions over the last two seasons and made 79 tackles in each of them. PFF ranks him the 24th best safety. If the Lions put Boston out there with Diggs and Walker, the safety position could be one of the strengths of the team. If you wonder why I didn't target the big-name FA safeties - Earl Thomas, Landon Collins, Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, Tyrann Mathieu - it's because they are likely to be unaffordable for the Lions. Hopefully, Boston can be signed for a few million less than those marquee FAs. My guesstimate of Boston's price: $9 Mn per year.

You can see that the math involved in replacing Lang and Quin with above-average starters like Person and Boston instead of a couple of second-stringers is not encouraging: The Lions would save $15 Mn from cutting Land and Quin and then have to spend that much to sign worthwhile replacements. The team wouldn't gain any cap space on a net basis, but it would be worth it because the product on the field would be better. Boston is markedly better than Quin at this stage of Quin's career, and while Person is not Lang's equal, he is a solid guard who has a much better chance of playing 16 games than Lang does.

So far, the way I've laid it out, it looks like the Lions wouldn't be doing much more in FA than treading water - replacing two starters while spending the same amount of money, and then still having only $9 Mn to spend toward other free agents. Here is where the Lions need to be creative in their finances. If they add Person and then draft a decent guard in the draft, they could cut Wiggins in addition to Lang, resulting in a gain of $2.7 Mn in cap space. And if the Lions sign Boston, they might decide to go with him, Diggs, Walker, Charles Washington, and a Day Three draft pick at safety and release Tavon Wilson. Releasing Wilson would increase the Lions' salary cap space by another $2.9 Mn. Cutting both Wiggins and Wilson would give the Lions $5.6 Mn more cap space which, added to the other $9 Mn, would give the Lions $14.6 Mn of usable cap space.

That $14.6 Mn could be further augmented in several ways: 1) The team could come up with another $1.5 Mn by replacing Sam Martin with Ryan Santoso, raising their usable cap space to $16.1 Mn. 2) Quinn could be less conservative with the emergency fund, reducing that to $7 Mn and making another $2 Mn available in FA, for a new potential total of $18.1 Mn of usable cap space. 3) The third possibility lies beyond the Lions' control: If the league raises the cap ceiling all the way to the high end of the range they estimated ( i.e., to $191.1 Mn) that would add another $2.1 Mn to the war chest, potentially giving the Lions $20.2 MN of usable cap space. But since that last $2.1 Mn isn't something that can be counted on, let's proceed with the assumption that after replacing RG and FS, Bob Quinn could (if he chooses) come up with $18.1 Mn to add an additional player or two.

My hope would be for two players: a cornerback and a tight end.

This may be an unorthodox approach to FA, but I'd love for the Lions to double dip in the secondary by adding both a starting safety and starting CB. Frankly, I don't have confidence in Quinn's ability to pick a college CB who can make a smooth transition to the NFL, so I would prefer signing a proven veteran at CB in FA. Then the Lions could go into the draft having the secondary already upgraded. Then the Lions could use their top draft picks to address DE and possibly LB on defense and WR and/or TE on offense. Given those preferences, here are my FA targets for the Lions:

FA target #3: the Chiefs' Steven Nelson.

Nelson would be the CB2 opposite Slay. PFF ranked Nelson just a couple of places below Slay, but higher than Jalen Ramsey and Jaire Alexander. I would bypass Ronald Darby who, like Ziggy, is a superior (and super-expensive) talent, but misses a lot of games. Estimated cost to sign Nelson: $10 Mn per year. By the way, some of you might think that if the Lions add CB2 in FA, they should release Nevin Lawson and thereby save $4.1 Mn of cap space. Depending on other off-season moves, this is certainly a possibility, but I wouldn't be too hasty to cut Lawson until they find out if they have someone better than Lawson to back up Slay and Nelson or whether Lawson is the team's best slot CB.

FA target #4: TE Jesse James.

Actually, James might be my first target in terms of priority for the Lions - not because he is the best player among my FA targets, but because the need at TE is the most acute. Much depends on whether the Lions re-sign Levine Toilolo. If they don't - if Toilolo leaves and Michael Roberts is the only TE left on the roster - then the Lions would absolutely HAVE to sign a TE in FA. It would be professionally incompetent for Bob Quinn to rely on Roberts and two unknowns or castoffs to man the position. Even if Toilolo stays, it might be a prudent step to sign a second veteran TE in FA.

Signing Jesse James would stop the bleeding at TE. The Steelers can afford to let James walk because Vance McDonald has been amazing. James could start for the Lions, even though PFF ranked Toilolo and James #29 and #30, respectively, among tight ends last season. PFF ranked the popular FA TE Jared Cook #9, but while Cook is faster and more of a downfield threat, his blocking doesn't come close to James'. Also, James has a noticeably higher career catch percentage than Cook (higher than Ebron, too). And James is just coming into his prime (he turns 25 this summer) whereas Cook is turning 32, so the clock is ticking there.

Estimated cost to sign James: $5 Mn.

Let me say that I hope I have overestimated the prices of FA contracts, but I fear that my estimates may be too low. NFL Teams go into FA hoping to patch up holes in their lineups. Often a team will feel that a position group is only one player away from excellence. That leads them to attach a high marginal value to whatever player will fill that very urgent need. With only a few real standouts available in FA for each position, and almost always more teams needing an above-average starter than there are above-average starters available, it won't be surprising if teams pay through the nose to get the kind of player that is in strictly limited supply.

If the Lions can add Nelson and James for a combined $15 Mn, then they wouldn't have to spend the entire $18.1 of cap space I found for them. They could keep Sam Martin and only reduce the emergency fund by $400,000 instead of $2 Mn. I have a feeling, though, that the cost of signing Person, Boston, Nelson, and James will be more than I have estimated, so neither Sam Martin's job nor the rainy day fun is safe.

Bottom line: It won't be easy, but the Lions could have a successful free agency period this year. In my scenario, Quinn can find enough cap money to solidify right guard, upgrade free safety, add a reliable veteran at tight end, and - best of all - finally have a decent CB2 opposite Slay. Obviously, Quinn's priorities could be quite different or my targeted players may get a better offer from other teams. Hopefully, though, this analysis has helped to illuminate the financial strictures that will be limiting Quinn as he negotiates his way through free agency.



