Michael Brendan Dougherty — one of my favorite writers — wrote a brilliant and influential column about how Pat Buchanan’s adviser Sam Francis anticipated the themes of Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign all the way back in 1996. Buchanan didn’t really take the advice to ditch the conservative labeling and the religious appeals and to run as the candidate of working-class white-identity politics, but Buchanan did hit the protectionist themes. I looked back at Buchanan’s winning coalition in the 1996 New Hampshire Republican primary. I saw that Buchanan’s New Hampshire coalition looked a great deal like the one that Ted Cruz is trying to assemble in Iowa. I saw hints of what would become the Trump coalition of today. Mostly, I saw a great deal of social change over the last 20 years.

I could not find an exit poll for the 1996 Iowa caucuses, so I am using the exit poll for New Hampshire. Buchanan decisively defeated Bob Dole (his closest rival) among self-identified conservative voters while losing to Dole among moderates and liberals. Buchanan defeated Dole among religious voters while losing among secular voters.

This is basically what it looks like in Iowa, with Ted Cruz as Buchanan and Trump as Dole. Cruz is beating Trump among Evangelical and very conservative voters while losing among “somewhat conservatives” and getting killed among moderate and liberal Republicans — though Trump’s coalition is better balanced among different social groups than Buchanan’s. So is Trump’s coalition like that of the ultra-establishment Bob Dole?

Well, yes and no. Dole ran better with more-affluent and more-educated voters. Trump does (relatively) better among lower-earning, less-educated voters. I would also guess that Trump’s voters are far more skeptical of trade than were Dole’s.

What is going on here? My guess is that the cleavages in American society have changed significantly since 1996. As Charles Murray pointed out, religious affiliation (and every form of civic engagement) has sharply declined among lower-earning whites while holding its ground among the upper middle class.

The alignments of the Reagan era are cracking.