Is a spectre haunting British politics, the spectre of a new “centrist” party? A note on terms, first, if I may: centrism is a deeply misleading term, conferring an image of moderation on a party that would combine social liberalism and anti-Brexitism with support for cuts, privatisation and a pro-corporate agenda. A Labour breakaway party has been mooted since Jeremy Corbyn became odds-on favourite to become leader, two and a half years ago, and was revived as a nuclear option after a disastrous general election showing. After Labour at the last election achieved the greatest vote surge since Clement Attlee in 1945, this rumour seemed to die a death. But flames flicker in the embers. Rumblings of discontent in Tory Remainia have revived chatter about a new political force linking together certain Labour rightwingers, the hapless Liberal Democrats and liberal Tories. It would sacrifice political careers on the altar of delusion and vanity, and it’s unclear whether a split would damage Labour or the Tories more. But it could still prove the greatest single obstacle to a Corbyn government.

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Let’s take the Labour side. It is a mistake in politics to reduce the differing opinions of your opponents to ulterior motives.There are Labour MPs who sincerely, as a matter of principle, believe Brexit is a national calamity that must be stopped. The vast majority desire no split. There is also, undoubtedly, a small faction of MPs who are seeking to weaponise the issue to undermine a Labour leadership they absolutely do not wish to form a government. A formal split, for a minority, remains a temptation.

One Labour figure – not an ideological Corbynite, incidentally – tells me a parliamentary vote on a Brexit final deal could provide a useful pretext for such a split. Look out for a phrase in the coming months – “Country before party”. You’ll hear it repeated a lot by both disillusioned Labour and Tory MPs, and it provides a convenient founding raison d’etre.

Would they do it? If Labour politics were an American high-school drama, some on the right of the party must have felt as though they were once the jocks and the prom queens, but have been suddenly usurped in the pecking order by the emo kids and goths they used to pity or mock. They will now never have ministerial office, let alone become party leader. That’s not what many of them signed up for: they believed they would always be members of the party’s ruling caste, even if there would be inevitable career ups and downs. Unlike David Miliband – who was foreign secretary, after all – they are not lucrative enough to be rescued by a prestigious international institution. They lack even the hinterland of the eloquent historian Tristram Hunt, who could become head of a museum. They are flattered by a centrist commentariat, many of whom have been close associates of the New Labour contingent since the 1990s. Ideologically repelled by some Labour pledges, fearful of the wider Corbynite movement, why not simply dash for an attractive-looking exit?

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There are reasons, of course. A raw emotional loyalty to Labour as a brand does exist, even among some of the staunchest recalcitrants. There has been no mandatory reselection of MPs: many Corbynite figures think that it’s more hassle than it’s worth, that only a handful would be deselected anyway, that preventing aggressively hostile briefings by backbenchers to the press has to be weighed up against the inevitable media storm over supposed attempted “purges” of the party. Recent Labour selections for marginal Tory-held seats seem to confirm this thesis: most candidates who stood in the last election have been reselected. Many also believe the left lacks a candidate after Corbyn. New Labour, after all, successfully prevented many leftwing candidates being selected, meaning that there is a missing generation. The newly elected, charismatic rising star Laura Pidcock is an obvious successor, but she is only 30 years old. Some Corbynites fear Corbyn will eventually be replaced by a Neil Kinnock figure who will swerve the party to the right (making transformations to party structures all the more urgent). That’s the hope, too, of some Labour rightwingers.

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What could change the dynamic? There are about 15 Tory pro-remain MPs who feel increasingly detached from their party. One extremely well-connected source tells me that the Tory press will launch an all-out onslaught against them, accusing them of backing Corbyn’s “customs union” and bringing a radical Labour government closer. The Fixed-term Parliaments Act rather blunts this attack in their opinion: a significant legislative defeat does not automatically mean a vote of no confidence. The name to look for, I’m told, is Stephen Hammond: if his name remains on an amendment in favour of a customs union, 15 Tory MPs will rebel, and the government will face defeat. There is a 40% chance of this happening, I’m told, and a 30% chance of voting against a final deal. With Tory discipline breaking down, they could either conceivably spin out of the party or bring Theresa May down, almost by accident.

If Boris Johnson – let alone Jacob Rees-Mogg – becomes Tory leader, some (such as Anna Soubry, Nicky Morgan and Justine Greening) will inevitably look for life rafts outside the party. There is a candidate, I’m told, who could stop such an eventuality: Michael Gove. He has become the May successor with the path of least resistance. He has the required impeccable Brexit credentials, as former Vote Leave spokesperson, but is seen as a liberal Tory otherwise. Tory MPs bemoan May’s lack of direction above all else. in Gove’s current environment role (just as when he assaulted comprehensive education as education secretary), he has shown it is possible to set the agenda and be full of energy, verve and political direction. He could attract the support of MPs ranging from Morgan (who backed his abortive 2016 leadership bid) to Rees-Mogg. There is one hiccup: he is, electorally speaking, a cup of cold sick. But he could at least prevent a Tory rupture.

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If not, a parliamentary faction claiming “Country before party” could emerge between certain Labour and Tory MPs, in a pact with the Lib Dems. Yes, it would be doomed to failure. They have nothing like the big beasts of the 1980s Social Democratic party, and that failed. The electoral system would destroy them. Labour right-wingers look obsessively to a so-called third way formula, which at least, on its own terms, made sense in the post-cold war 1990s but which is irrelevant to the post-crash 2010s and an angry electorate looking for radical change, and which has taken social-democratic parties to oblivion across continental Europe. Now, some Labour figures believe it may damage the Tories more. I’m not so sure: many Tory remain voters are “meh” when it comes to Brexit, and fear Corbynism more.

Yet even taking a tiny handful of percentage points away from Labour could gift the Tories a majority. Indeed, the Times columnist and Tony Blair’s former speechwriter Philip Collins believes that preventing a Corbyn victory could be a centrist party’s most important function. Perversely, it would therefore strengthen the hardcore rightwing Tory Brexiteers. So yes, a new centrist party is doomed. But it may well be the last great hope of the Tory right – and the biggest single threat to a socialist government assuming office.