<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/0206-jan-temps.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/0206-jan-temps.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273 400w, https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/0206-jan-temps.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551 800w" > January 2020 Temperatures compared to average in January 2020. The entire Lower 48 had either above or much above average temperatures. (NOAA/NCEI)

At a Glance The contiguous U.S. is on pace to have its warmest winter on record.

Dating to 1895, January was fifth warmest and December was sixth warmest. The first two months of meteorological winter (December 2019 – January 2020) were the warmest on record for the contiguous U.S. in data going back to 1895. NOAA provided the January data and images on Thursday ahead of its monthly U.S. climate report.

The average national temperature for the first two of winter’s three months was 35.95°F, topping the 35.82°F observed in Dec. 2005 – Jan. 2006.

Across the contiguous U.S., this winter so far is running about 4.5°F warmer than the average winter of the 20th century.

Average U.S. temperature for December and January combined, from Dec.-Jan. 1895-96 to 2019-20. (NOAA/NCEI)

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/0206-dec-temps.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273" srcset="https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/0206-dec-temps.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273 400w, https://s.w-x.co/util/image/w/0206-dec-temps.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551 800w" > December 2019 Temperatures compared to average in December 2019. Much of the Lower 48 had either above or much above average temperatures. (NOAA/NCEI)

The nation saw its fifth warmest January on record, following the sixth warmest December.

Even though neither month was record-warm on a national or state level, the mild conditions were prolonged enough to top the national list when the two months are combined.

The warmth was also usually widespread. Not a single one of the Lower 48 states had a below-average temperature in December, and the same was true in January. Thirteen states had a top-ten-warmest January, including every New England state except Vermont.

Interestingly, no single state made it into their top-three-warmest in either December or January—further evidence that what’s made this winter so exceptional isn’t the intensity of the mildness, but rather how widespread and sustained it’s been.

Although February has gotten off to an exceptionally mild start, colder-than-usual weather will dominate the western U.S. over the next few days. That may be enough to keep the full winter (December-February) from setting a warmth record, although we still have more than three weeks to go.

Another Wet Month

While the phenomenal wetness of late 2019 into mid-2020 has backed off just a bit, last month was still the 26th warmest January on record. It was especially moist in Washington (fourth wettest) and across the southern and central Plains (sixth wettest in Oklahoma, tenth wettest in Missouri).

January was yet another month of above-average precipitation for the Midwest, where ample snowpack atop frozen, saturated ground is setting the stage for what could be another rough spring of river flooding. The North Central River Forecast Center will issue its first spring flood outlook of the year on Thursday, February 13.

Some of the most concerning floodways are the Red River of the North bordering North Dakota and Minnesota; the James River in eastern South Dakota; and the upper and mid-Missisissipi River.

As of Thursday, at least 59 locations in the northern and central Plains and Midwest are projected to have a better-than-even chance of major flooding between February and April, according to long-range simulations for the Missouri Basin and North Central river forecast office areas. The simulations, from the NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, are based on ensemble streamflow forecasts that incorporate a variety of possible weather conditions from late winter into spring.

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