Global temperatures could pass limit set by Paris climate deal within 5 years

Doyle Rice | USA TODAY

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Global temperatures could surpass a limit set by the Paris climate agreement within the next five years, according to a new forecast by British scientists.

At least one year in the next five could exceed the threshold the deal set of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, above preindustrial levels, according to the forecast from the Met Office, the United Kingdom's national weather service. It's now likely temperatures will exceed 1 degrees Celsius, or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, as soon as 2022.

"It is the first time that such high values have been highlighted within these forecasts," the Met Office said in a statement.

The Paris agreement aims to limit warming well below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius by gradually reducing emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, which come from the burning of fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gas.

Global average temperatures already have neared the 1 degree Celsius mark over the past three years. That combined with continued warming from greenhouse gases and natural variations in temperatures means it's possible for the world to temporarily exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius mark in the next five years, said Stephen Belcher, chief scientist at the Met Office.

“We are now starting to see a small but real chance of temporarily exceeding the 1.5 degree Celsius level, but we should remember that the Paris agreement is about the global climate reaching this level over a longer-term average, rather than just a temporary excursion," Doug Smith of the Met Office Hadley Centre said.

Last year was the world's hottest non-El Niño year on record, both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA reported in January. El Niño is a natural warming of ocean water in the Pacific that boosts global temperatures.

Both agencies said the past four years have been the hottest since records began in the late 1800s. The most recent cooler-than-average year was 1976. Since then, the globe has experienced a stretch of 41 consecutive warmer-than-average years.

“These predictions show that 1.5 degree Celsius events are now looming over the horizon," said Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office. The warmest years are likely to coincide with a large El Niño event in the Pacific, he added.

The Met Office’s long-range global warming forecast is updated each year.