A coalition of campaign groups is galvanising under-25s. Will they succeed in making this PM the first to lose his constituency at a general election?

Youth campaigners have stepped up efforts to oust Boris Johnson from his constituency with grassroots organisations increasingly hopeful they can make history by ensuring he is the second prime minister to lose their seat at a general election.

Despite speculation that Johnson might have relocated to a safer seat, it was confirmed on Thursday that he would stay put, ignoring an internal assessment from CCHQ that he is potentially at risk.

The decision has prompted a network of groups to intensify their targeting of the constituency with the focus on galvanising the youth vote. They believe they can overturn Johnson’s 5,034 majority in the 2017 election, a margin that was itself cut from almost 11,000 in the 2015 vote.

Yesterday the female-led FCK Boris group, which has organised parties around the UK with the intention of getting young people to register to vote, held an event in Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency titled “Kick him out”.

At least 10 other groups, including Grime4Corbyn, UK Student Climate Network and the Feminist Anti-Fascist Assembly, were among the organisations supporting the event. The newest group to target the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency is crowd-funded collective Youth Can, which entered the fray yesterday confident it can help overturn Johnson’s majority.

A spokesman for Youth Can said: “We need to get rid of Johnson, but what is important to remember is that we can. That is what is so radical about democracy – a group of young people with a shared vision can organise, vote and change history. It’s down to youth.”

He added: “Johnson is the single person most responsible for taking away our hope – he has to go.”

The group cites calculations based on government statistics that around 3,000 new voters have turned 18 since the last election in June 2017, making a total of 13,000 residents aged under 25 in the constituency.

Alongside that, the non-party- affiliated group estimates there have been around 1,500 deaths in the constituency since the 2017 election with older voters traditionally more likely to vote Conservative.

A report by centre-right thinktank Onward found that a constituency is likely to be won by a party other than the Tories if its ratio of younger to older residents rises above 1.1.

Analysts at Youth Can believe that the seat is significantly beyond that tipping point, with younger voters outnumbering older by an estimated 2.1 ratio. In addition to making sure younger residents are registered to vote, pivotal to any victory will be targeting the 13,000 students at the constituency’s Brunel University London.

With the end of term falling just two days after the general election, Youth Can is among a number of groups working together to try and ensure that Brunel’s student population are eligible to vote.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Young first-time voters are targeted in the 2019 general election Photograph: Rui Vieira/PA

In the last general election Labour came second in the constituency and its candidate in 2019 is a former president of Brunel’s student union, Ali Milani, a 25-year-old Iranian immigrant who moved to a north London council estate with his mother and sister when he was five.

Youth Can, which will use billboards throughout the constituency among other localised messaging, joins a number of groups seeking to target Johnson in his constituency, including Operation Votey McVoteface, which believes there are enough potential voters without a permanent address, such as canal boat dwellers, to potentially influence the result.

Research by the Canal & River Trust reveals that Hillingdon, the west London borough in which Johnson’s Uxbridge constituency lies, already tops the list of London local authorities in which boat dwellers paid the most council tax .

Johnson’s majority was cut from 10,695 in the 2015 general election to 5,034 in the 2017 election and is now the smallest of any prime minister since 1924.

• This article was amended on 17 and 19 November 2019. An earlier version referred to an assessment by the intelligence agency GCHQ, when CCHQ, Conservative campaign headquarters, was meant. If Johnson loses his seat at the general election he will be the second PM, not the first, to do so. Conservative PM Arthur Balfour lost his seat in 1906.