Posted by Lindsey on Fri, 02/11/2011 - 12:04

I’ve been rolling around this theory in my head for a few weeks, but I decided to pursue it further after seeing a post by Basketball Prospectus’ John Gasaway on Monday. Dubbing this season’s Big Ten as “The Year Nobody (Stunk), the Springfield native and Illinois graduate laid out some efficiency margins that explain why every conference win should be treasured this year. If you like efficiency margins, then click Gasaway’s link: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=631 I can’t beat that math because I’m not good at cipherin’ or basketball sabermetrics, but I can do simple things like read Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency ratings and Jeff Sagarin’s Predictor rankings. Through Thursday night’s games, here’s where each Big Ten team ranks among the nation’s 345 Division I teams. I’ll put the Pomeroy number first and Sagarin second. Ohio State: 1/1 Wisconsin: 7/10 Purdue: 9/9 Illinois: 15/15 Michigan State: 43/40 Minnesota: 44/47 Northwestern: 49/48 Michigan: 55/54 Penn State: 62/63 Indiana: 65/62 Iowa: 74/78 See what Gasaway means? In the modern era (since the NCAA Tournament bulked up to 64 teams in 1985), I’m not sure there has been a season when every Big Ten team merited either an NCAA or an NIT bid. Yet here we are. Pomeroy’s numbers go back to the 2002-03 season. Only twice (in 2002-03 and 2008-09) have as many as nine teams finished the year ranked among the top 80. In 2009, seven teams made the NCAAs. Michigan State reached the NCAA title game, Penn State won the NIT and Northwestern played in the NIT. In 2003, five teams made the NCAAs and all five won their first-round game. Three other teams made the NIT as Minnesota reached the semifinals. Sagarin’s numbers go back to the 1998-99 season, which allows us to analyze the 1999 season that ended with Michigan State and Ohio State in the Final Four…and the 2000 season where MSU won it all and Wisconsin reached the Final Four. So how did those seasons compare to the one we’re enjoying now? Here’s how the Big Ten fared in the final 1999 Sagarins. Remember, there were just 315 Div. I teams in those days: 3. Michigan State 9. Ohio State 12. Wisconsin 16. Iowa 19. Indiana 24. Purdue 27. Minnesota 48. Penn State 54. Illinois 56. Northwestern 66. Michigan Remember how Illinois finished last in the Big Ten that year, but rode some rapidly improving youngsters and some boisterous United Center crowds all the way into the Big Ten tournament title game? The league was so stacked that year, the Illini had to beat the Associated Press’ No. 23, No. 17 and No. 11 teams on consecutive days just for the right to get whipped by No. 2 Michigan State in the title game. The 1999-2000 season couldn’t quite live up to its predecessor. Eight teams finished among the top 58 in Sagarin’s ratings, which is reminiscent of the current season. However, Minnesota (87) and Michigan (89) were OK while Kevin O’Neill’s final Northwestern team was a dreadful 240th as they went 5-25. While I can’t find Pomeroys, Sagarins or other computerese to provide context for the seasons from 1984-85 to 1997-98 seasons, Northwestern’s annual struggles (mixed in with occasional plummets by Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa and even Ohio State) provide an easy way to discount those seasons. So there you have it: This season, along with the 1998-99 season, ranks as the Big Ten’s most competitive from top to bottom in the last quarter-century. Enjoy it while it lasts -- there are 10 seniors among the league’s top 16 scorers -- and try not to get so irked when your squad comes up short on the road. There ain’t no weak sisters. Kind of makes Ohio State’s magical run -- the Bucks already own six road wins with “only” Wisconsin, Purdue and Penn State yet to visit -- even more amazing. LW