The Tigers have been blessed with some outstanding starting pitchers over the past five seasons. Players like Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, Max Scherzer, David Price, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello, and Drew Smyly do not often find themselves all on the same staff, but Tigers fans have had the treat to watch some truly dominant starters. Unfortunately, 2015 has see quite a drop-off in the performance of the starters. While the bullpen has been shaky too, the rotation has been a great letdown for the team. Below are a few areas where the team has struggled compared to recent seasons, with the 2015 numbers projected out over 162 games. With the departure of David Price, these estimates may even be a bit generous.

Key Metrics

With a sub-par bullpen, the Tigers demand a lot of innings from their starters. This season, the rotation has averaged about 6 innings per start, which is right along the lines of the past five seasons. However, these innings have not been as effective as in the past. A 4.50 ERA and 1.32 WHIP are the worst that the Tigers have featured in a while. In fact, this season’s ERA is over a half of a run higher than the average ERA of the past five teams.

Three True Outcomes

The rotation has also put up less than quality numbers in the traditional areas of strikeouts, walks, and home runs. The starters are averaging just 4.6 K/start this season, the lowest figure seen since 2011. A combination of new pitchers and struggling veterans has caused a sharp decline in the strikeout rate. Meanwhile, the walk rate has stayed fairly consistent, although this year’s average is a tad higher than the numbers tallied in recent seasons.

The most alarming number would be the number of home runs allowed. At the current pace, the 2015 rotation is projected to give up 130 homers, which would be by far the worst total in the last five seasons. Anibal Sanchez has been a notable victim with 22 HR surrendered so far this year, but as a whole the rotation has been much less effective at keeping the ball in the park this season.

Advanced ERA Measurements

The rotation’s ERA this season is worse than any of the previous four, but that is just one metric that explains the starters’ deficiencies. Both FIP and xFIP, ERA counterparts that remove the effects of defenses, highlight the 2015 rotation’s issues. This is the only season of the last five where the team has had a FIP and xFIP above 4.00. These figures are directly related to the starters’ struggles in the areas of the three true outcomes, as noted above.

The Tigers have also performed much worst this season compared to their competition. A 113 ERA- and 109 FIP- mean that the rotation is allowing runs at around a 10% higher rate than an average staff. In the past five seasons, the Tigers have never been so poor compared to their peers, not once posting an ERA- or FIP- above the average mark of 100.

Win Contribution

The 2015 rotation does not boast many glamorous stats, regardless of the metric used. ERA and WHIP are up, strikeouts are down, and the Tigers are falling behind the league average. One more area that showcases these struggles is the rotation’s contributions towards wins. From 2011-2014, the starters posted a positive WPA each season. This means that collectively during the year, the rotation increased the Tigers chances of winning. However, this season the Tigers are projected to end with a negative WPA. Thus, the rotation is actually contributing negatively to the team’s chances of winning games.

RE24 is another statistic that measures game outcomes, doing so by observing baserunner positions before and after at bats. Again, from 2011-2014 the Tigers posted positive RE24s each season. The 2015 rotation will post a negative RE24 by a good margin, further emphasizing the starters negative impact on the Tigers in-game winning probabilities.

Finally, one metric that summarizes the rotation’s woes is fWAR. The past few seasons have featured overpowering Tigers starters who racked up strikeouts and kept opponents off the bases. Strong fWAR totals placed the team undoubtedly among the league’s best. However, this year the Tigers will be lucky to total 10 fWAR as a team, which would still fall much lower than the average of the last five seasons. There is hope for the future, but there is no way around the reality that this year’s rotation has been sorely disappointing.