The possibility of a physical border between North Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is on the table or the first time in a generation, as a result of the UK’s plan to leave Customs Union. This move could feasibly see the return of sectarian tensions, and perhaps even violence, to a region that has been at peace for almost two decades.

Anti-Frontier campaign at the UK-Ireland Border. Getty. Re-published under Fair Use.

Leaving the Customs Union, the agreement that enables the EU to act as a single trading bloc, with common tariffs and customs inspections, means that border checks, and the accompanying physical infrastructure and manpower they necessitate, would be “unavoidable”, according to the Michel Barnier, the EU’s no-nonsense chief negotiator. As departure from the Customs Union is now the British Government’s official position, it is important to explore the implications of this move for the Island.

P eace and reconciliation has been hard fought, and until now, largely won. The dissolving of the border has played a significant part in that process. According to a report conducted last year by the Irish Government,:

“Prior to the Good Friday Agreement, security checkpoints on the border, and accompanying military installations, which had been built and reinforced from the 1970s onwards, were potent symbols of division and conflict in Northern Ireland and were frequent targets for attack. The disappearance of physical border crossings and checkpoints is both a symbol of and a dividend from the success of the Peace Process.”

So why would the British Government even consider leaving the Customs Union, if doing so conceivably threatens paramilitary violence, and sectarian tension? Ultimately, and rather depressingly, it comes down to disagreements over the UK’s post-Brexit trading relationship with the EU, and the rest of the world, and to understand this, you must first understand what the Customs Union actually is.

British Soldier’s patrolling a border crossing between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

By standarising tariffs, quotas and regulations, the Customs Union streamlines trade, making it cheaper, easier and more efficient to conduct. Once goods have entered the Union, they no longer require to be checked by customs officials when they cross from one member state to another. All good stuff. However, the Customs Union prevents member states from entering into new trade agreements outside of the bloc of their own volition, as these would inevitably undermine the standardisation the Customs Union in based upon.

For libertarian, ideologically motivated Brexiteers on the Tory right, who dream of Britain’s future as a low-tax, low-regulation free trading hub, à la Singapore, leaving the Customs Union is Valhalla. It is an imperative that cannot be compromised. In their eyes, Brexit would be a pointless, and needlessly painful exercise, without the ability to strike up new trade deals, which of course, would require a departure from the Customs Union.

Irish and British membership of the Customs Union, did not itself bring down the not-so-metaphorical wall in Northern Ireland, but leaving it certainly necessitates putting it back up. Since 2005, when relevant clauses of the Good Friday Agreement matured, there has definitively been no border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. This brings us to the fundamental question at hand; how can the free-trading aims of the Tory right be reconciled with the need to uphold the peace process in Northern Ireland? How can the UK leave the Customs Union without creating border controls? Ultimately, the issue isn’t up the UK. It’s up to the EU 27, and the message from them is loud and clear. It cannot.

That hasn’t stopped the Government from trying. Some proposals have been put forward, ranging from the seemingly reasonable (CCTV camera’s and license plate scanners), to the donwright absurd, a fleet drones and air ships. Michel Barnier responded to these ideas with typical dry, pointedness:

“What I see in the UK’s paper on Ireland and Northern Ireland worries me….Creativity and flexibility can’t be at the expense of the integrity of the single market and customs union…This would be not fair for Ireland and it would not be fair for the European Union.”

You could sum up the whole of Britain’s negotiating position to date with this quote. There is no quasi-membership, ‘no cherry picking’ as the EU lake to say, you are in or you are out. And for good reason. The EU only works when all states are aligned, and there is mutual buy in. A Customs Unions needs border protection to exist. Leaving aside the fact that the British Government’s own analysis of the value of potential post-Brexit trade deals, does not exceed the anticipated losses from leaving the EU (who would have thought leaving the world’s biggest free trade area is bad for trade), not to mention there is no democratic mandate for the so called ‘Global Britain’, that Boris Johnson et al. purport, i.e. a Britain free from pesky environmental laws and workers’ rights, leaving the Customs Union is totally unworkable. As such, the Brexit the Tories are currently advocating for, is unworkable as well.

The Free-Trade zealots would disagree, arguing that the reasonably frictionless Norway-Sweden model could be adopted. There are customs checks albeit, mostly for freight, but there is still physical border infrastructure, ruling out the feasibility of this option. According to George Hamilton, the Chief Constable of Northern Ireland’s Police Force, there would be a “severe” threat of violence at border checks, partly due to the predictable concentration of police that would be required.

All of this comes at a time, when the Governance of Northern Ireland is fragile. Since November 2016, power sharing, the agreement by which Unionists and Nationalists share Government leadership to avoid political hegemony of any group, has collapsed. At the same time, the Westminster Tories are dependent on the anti-abortion, anti-same sex marriage, climate change denying Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), who were also in fact the only party that opposed the 1998 Good Friday agreement.

A Republican Mural on Beechmount Avenue, Belfast. CC.

This assessment could be completely wrong. Maybe the EU will offer unique compromise to the border question, maybe Theresa May will decide that staying in the Customs Union is a price the UK must pay to maintain to ensure the peace process is not undermined. Maybe the UK and Ireland will be able to hash out a unique Customs Union, that is mutually acceptable to the EU 27, as the Irish Taoiseach, Leo Varadkarhas has suggested. But of course, maybe they won’t. Maybe Theresa May will succumb to the pressures from Free-Traders in her party to leave the Customs Union. Maybe she will ignore the concerns coming out of border communities. Maybe she will decide a few attacks on border checks is worth a trade deal with East Timor or Djibouti.

Quoting the Irish Government’s report on the implications of Brexit on the Good Friday Agreement Report once more:

“People’s daily lives in Northern Ireland and in the border region have been transformed. Any reversal of this transformation would have considerable adverse economic, social, political, security and psychological impacts on people both in border communities and on the island as a whole.”

If this assessment is correct, and upon leaving the Customs Union, a border is erected once more, history will judge this as the most short-sited and reckless act of any British Government in recent history history, or at least, since a referendum on EU membership was called.

In any case, I sincerely hope it is wrong.

EDIT: The Irish Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Tweeted today that threatening the GFA (Good Friday Agreement) was totally “reckless” and “Irresponsible”.