At least two South Korean marines are dead and over a dozen are wounded after North Korea fired off hundreds of artillery rounds at a South Korean island. Seoul called it a clear violation of the shaky armistice that's held between the two nations since 1953. Can the Koreas back down before another disastrous war starts on the peninsula?

Every year, the South Korean military holds a massive exercise called Hoguk, or "Defending the Nation," in which tens of thousands of troops from across the services work on their coordination in the face of an attack. And every year, the North Koreans denounce it as "dangerous war maneuvers" as that simulate an invasion. So this year's exercise, featuring 70,000 troops, many drilling in the Yellow Sea, should come as no surprise. It's expected to begin shortly.

Except early today, the North began shelling the inhabited island of Yeonpyeongdo, about two miles south of the maritime armistice line. According to the Korea Times – which headlines its piece "1st NK Attack on S. Korean Soil" – the North's army is believed "to have about eight 27-kilometer-range 130mm howitzers and eight 76 guns with a range of 12 kilometers," presumably at use in the strike.

TV cameras captured destroyed buildings on the island spewing black smoke and villagers running in panic. South Korean troops returned fire with their K9 Thunder howitzers and put its F-16 fighter jets on alert. According to the Korea Herald, President Lee Myung-bak has ordered a "multiple-fold retaliation," including a strike on the North's "missile base near [its] coastline artillery position" if the North doesn't deescalate hostilities.

As the New York Times notes, the North fired artillery near Yeonpyeongdo this summer. But Stratfor calls the "the sustained shelling of a populated island" a "deliberate and noteworthy escalation." Unlike the sinking of the Sorth Korean corvette Cheonan in March – an act that killed 46 South Korean sailors – there's no initial ambiguity about who fired today's artillery barrage.

All this is happening as North Korea is undergoing a leadership change, as the ailing Kim Jong-il passes on power to his son Kim Jong-un, who isn't yet 30. Stratfor wonders if the artillery fire wasn't the result of "miscommunications or worse within the North’s command-and-control structure, or disagreements within the North Korean leadership," since the North had just announced its delegates for talks with the South on reuniting families separated by the demilitarized zone. Those talks, scheduled for Thursday, have been suspended by the South Korean government in the wake of the attack.

A different possible explanation: the North Koreans freaked out over yesterday's news that the South might ask the U.S. to return tactical nukes to the peninsula. They couldn't justly consider that a provocation, since that prospective move from the South Korean Defense Ministry is a response to the North's new uranium-enrichment plant. But that doesn't mean the erratic country couldn't overreact.

The Obama administration blasted the exchange in a statement emailed to reporters. "The United States strongly condemns this attack and calls on North Korea to halt its belligerent action and to fully abide by the terms of the Armistice Agreement," press secretary Robert Gibbs said, adding that the U.S. is "firmly committed" to defending South Korea and to "the maintenance of regional peace and stability."

We're still waiting on a response from the Pentagon and will update with one as soon as we receive it. Over at the navy blog Information Dissemination, Raymond Pritchett surveys the naval assets that the U.S. could bring into the relief of South Korea if necessary. "Should hostilities break out on a larger scale, the US Navy could surge both the USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) and the USS Nimitz (68) very quickly," he writes, estimating they could arrive in ten days from the west coast.

There's going to be an emergency United Nations Security Council meeting to calm things down on the peninsula. It's white-knuckle time.

Image: Stratfor

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