The chance for an elite fantasy season is born when talent meets opportunity. There are some great examples on this list where the opportunity will make all the difference in a player’s fantasy worth. One player, who you will read more about later, is a great example of this. Coby Fleener has been a consistent producer logging catch totals of 52, 51, and 54 receptions over the last three seasons. Instead of landing in New Orleans, he could have just as easily ended up in a lesser offense and would be generating minimal fantasy interest. Instead, there is plenty of buzz surrounding his name and for good reason, but more on that later.

Before we get into the tight ends, I want to feature some big name running backs who changed teams this offseason.

Running Backs

DeMarco Murray – Titans

As much as Eagles fans don’t want to hear this, DeMarco Murray is good.

Yards Per Carry (YPC) / League Rank (running backs)

2011: 5.5 / 1st

2012: 4.1 / 20th

2013: 5.2 / 3rd

2014: 4.7 / 8th

2015: 3.6 / 39th

Three out of his five seasons in the league he has produced top 10 YPC numbers, including two top five seasons.

Last year in Philly was a disaster. I am sure Murray deserves some of the blame.

I mean I wouldn’t want to take three guys on either, but that is the first time I have seen a running back opt for the feet first slide a la a quarterback who is trying to avoid a hit. An effort like that isn’t a good way to win your teammates over. As I mentioned, Murray isn’t completely innocent for the disaster that his one season in Philly was.

BUTTTTTTTTT…..

The culprit for the crime that took place in Philadelphia last season is Chip Kelly. Now, I am not going to pretend like I even know 1% of what Chip Kelly does. However, after their very first game (MNF at Atlanta) I said that they were misusing Murray. Running east-west is not Murray’s game. He does his best work between the tackles. Fittingly enough, here was Murray’s first carry after Chip was sent packing.

I doubt that was enough to convince Eagles fans, but it’s time to move to the present, and the present for DeMarco Murray is in Tennessee. When Murray was brought to the Titans, he looked like the clear-cut number one option in the backfield. That all changed on day number two of the draft when the Titans selected Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry. After selecting Henry, Mike Mularkey, like a dude who was spotted out in the company of another women called DeMarco to tell him he still the one. I believe him too.

The Titans have done a great job beefing up their offensive line (Jack Conklin, first round selection) and I expect them to pound the ball this season. My initial thought on the split was 70/30 in Murray’s favor, with the bullish Henry taking the goal line work. After doing some digging I am not so sure that Henry is going to be the goal line back. Last year, Murray had 15 carries on third/fourth down with one/two yards to go and he converted ALL 15 opportunities. It is kind of hard to deny a guy who had a 100% success rate on short-yardage carries in the previous season.

Titan’s running backs combined for 320 carries last season. For Murray and Henry to both be solid fantasy producers they will need more combined carries. With the improved talent in the backfield and the bolstered offensive line I think there will be 400+ carries between them. I view Murray as a strong RB2 and Henry as a flex option in standard leagues.

Chris Ivory – Jaguars

When I think of Ivory I picture a thick 220lb+ back that pounds between the tackles, never goes down at first contact, and cannot be stopped at the goal line. I also picture a back who lacks explosion and grinds out his yards in four or five yard chunks.

Ivory showed plenty of pop in 2015. He had 29 carries that went for 10+ yards, which was good enough for the fourth best in the league. Much to my surprise, was his inability to convert in short yardage situations. His number was called 11 times on third and three or less yards. He only converted six of those opportunities. He was even worse at the goal line, scoring on five of 15 tries from carries inside the opponents three yard line. I realize these aren’t huge sample sizes, but it certainly goes against my perception of him as a player.

Speaking of my perception, does he remind anyone else of Marion Barber? Hopefully he has a little more juice left in the tank at age 28 than what Barber did who retired at age 28. Not all that surprising when you consider the punishment he dealt out on each and every carry.

Regardless of the lack of success that Ivory experienced in short-yardage situations last year, he will most definitely have that job for the Jaguars from day one. It is anyone’s guess what the split will look like with second year man T.J. Yeldon. One concerning stat is that Ivory only had three 100-yard games last year. Even more concerning, it took him 20+ carries to reach the 100-yard benchmark in each of those games. In the nine games that he had less than 20 carries he only cracked 60 yards rushing twice. With a 60/40 split looming the opportunity for 20+ carries might be lean. Although he set a career high last year in receptions with 30, he will likely take a back-seat to Yeldon on third downs. Slide him down your rankings in PPR formats.

Matt Forte – Jets

Taking over Ivory’s role in New York will be Matt Forte. Don’t let the age, or the 2500+ career touches scare you off. Forte is known for taking incredible care of his body, and will be playing in 2016 with a huge chip on his shoulder. He described it as “a hard pill to swallow” that the Bears didn’t put in an offer to retain him.

“I figured they would at least offer me something mid-to-low range of the free-agent market. For them to tell me that they don’t want you back is always kind of a hard pill to swallow. But you roll with the punches, that’s their decision, and you move on.”

Forte has been the model of consistency over the years. He is durable and ultra-productive. The 1287 total yards he posted last season was the least in his career. Keep in mind these “career low” numbers came in just 13 games played.

The opportunity for work should be there. Last season, Ivory posted six games of 20+ carries. With the running back by committee approach in full swing, having a running back that could see 20+ carries in over 1/3 of the games is enticing. The Jets resigned Bilal Powell and brought in Khiry Robinson, but this is Forte’s show.

Lamar Miller – Texans

The Texans had a front row seat when Miller gashed them on the ground and through the air for 246 yards on 17 touches. Fast-forward seven months and Lamar Miller finds himself in a Texans uniform and a 26 million dollar contract. I guess they liked what they saw.

My hope, and every fantasy owner’s hope is that he will finally get the usage that he deserves in Houston. Last year, he had exactly one game with 20+ carries. In that game he had 20/113 for a robust 5.7 yards per carry. For his career he averages 4.6 yards per carry. The only thing holding him back from being an elite fantasy producer is volume.

Durability hasn’t been an issue. He has played in all 16 games for three straight seasons. On the other hand, his career high in touches for a season is only 254. It will be interesting to see how his body responds to an increased workload. With no real competition for carries, he should approach 300+ touches this season. At the rate he has produced in his career he easily could be a top five running back.

Alfred Morris – Cowboys

This would have been a fun write up to do before the Cowboys selected Ezekiel Elliott. However, Morris figures to have a limited role in this offense, likely being number three on the depth chart. Not having any kind of role on third down (47 career receptions) isn’t going to help his chances. As of now, he is an injury or two away from fantasy relevance.

Tight Ends

Coby Fleener – Saints

It is rare for a tight end in his 12th NFL season to set career highs in catches, yards, and matched his season high touchdown reception total. That is exactly what Ben Watson did last year playing for the Saints with Drew Brees as his quarterback. As long as Brees is the quarterback in New Orleans, the tight end position is going to be a fantasy goldmine.

Now it is Coby Fleener’s turn. Last season, despite the Colts offense being a mess, Fleener still posted a career high in receptions with 54. He is just one season removed from posting TE1 numbers when he hauled in 51 receptions for 774/8 in 2014. He achieved those numbers on 92 targets. In the pass-happy Saints offense Watson saw 109 targets last season. With Marques Colston being put off to pasture, his 67 targets will go somewhere. Fleener feels like a lock for 100+ targets. That many targets in an offense with that much firepower should produce TE1 numbers.

Ladarius Green – Steelers

Speaking of a guy that landed in a really good situation.

Between being behind Antonio Gates and constantly battling the injury bug Green has yet to show his full potential, but flash like this will always keep fantasy owners coming back for more.

It will be interesting to see how Green fits in the Steelers offense. He is the exact opposite of Heath Miller. Green is known for his ability to stretch the field and make game-breaking plays. Heath Miller is known for blocking and catching a six yard hitch on 3rd and 5. He was Ben’s security blanket. Green hasn’t demonstrated the type of consistency to fill that role yet, but his upside, especially in this offense is huge.

As per usual with Green, keep an eye on his injury status. He missed OTA’s with a surgery he had done on the ankle that bothered him for a good portion of last year. He is slated to be back in time for training camp.

Martellus Bennett – Patriots

The Patriots might lack a big play vertical threat outside of the numbers, but good luck to opposing defenses matching up with two tight ends who are 6’6” and can run. Rex Ryan is already sweating the prospects of this future matchup.

Bennett fell off statistically last season. He posted half the amount of receiving yards and touchdowns that he had in 2014. He was banged up and missed five games. Also, the offense on a whole had a different look under Adam Gase than what it did in 2014 when Marc Trestman was calling the shots. There was at least one fantasy writer out there that saw this dip in production coming.

I wasn’t in the business of overpaying for his 2014 career year, but Bennett could be carrying some tremendous value this year. Working in tandem with Gronk should provide plenty of one-on-one matchups for Bennett. There might not be enough footballs to go around in New England for him to have a 2014 type of season, but I expect him to be efficient when targeted. This was a great move for the Patriots.

Jared Cook – Packers

Cook was incredibly inconsistent last season with the Rams. He had nine games in which he caught two or fewer passes. If he landed in a fantasy wasteland like “insert your favorite shoddy NFL offense here” he would be completely off the radar. However, going to an offense that has the best quarterback in the game will surely draw the attention of fantasy owners. The way I look at it, with a healthy Jordy Nelson, Rodgers is a lock to throug for 4,000 yards and 30+ touchdowns. Someone is going to get those yards and scores.

Of all the players that changed teams this offseason, I will be keeping a close eye on Lamar Miller. His draft day price-tag might be steep, but if he gets 300+ touches he will likely be worth it.

__________________________________________________________________

(Click the RED link below to listen)

Major League Fantasy Baseball Weekly: Join Lou Landers and Kyle Amore live on Thursday May 26th, 2016 from 8-10pm EST for episode #15 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Weekly. This will run every Thursday as a live broadcast that will take live callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. Our Thursday night show will do some weekly recaps, player updates, and preview the coming week end games.

Our guest this week is Phil Weiss. Phil Weiss’s resume includes working as a CPA with a large public accounting firm as well as private industry (Fortune 500), specializing in international corporate tax planning. Chief Financial Analyst for an Independent RIA.

Media Experience: Frequent guest on CNBC and Bloomberg television. Multiple appearances on Bloomberg radio, local and national radio. Regularly quoted in Wall Street Journal, Reuters, New York Times, AP, thestreet.com, local news, Financial Times.

Phil has also coached baseball, has been playing fantasy baseball for over 25 years, and has been with Major League Fantasy Sports for almost 4 years.

You can find our shows on I-Tunes. Just search for Major League Fantasy Sports in the podcasts section. For Android users go to “Podcast Republic,” then download that app, and search for “Major League Fantasy Sports Show”

Share this: Reddit

Twitter

Facebook

LinkedIn

Tumblr

Pocket

Telegram

Pinterest

Skype

WhatsApp

Email

Print

