Thomas Edward Patrick Brady will celebrate his 40th birthday just one month before the start of the regular season, and although no one his age has ever won the NFL MVP award, Vegas is not making it easy to bet against him.

The quarterback will enter his 18th season as the bettor’s favorite to win the elusive honor – which he has won twice before, though never in a season in which he’s won the Super Bowl. Bovada set Brady’s odds at 4/1, besting fellow QBs Aaron Rodgers (7/1) and Derek Carr (9/1).

The New England Patriots legend is perennially in MVP contention, often losing out to very good players who have career great seasons – the most recent of which was Matt Ryan, whom Brady beat in the Super Bowl. He has the ability to put up league-leading passing stats at any given time, but he is often passed over for a player who doesn’t have the top-to-bottom support on the roster and on the coaching staff that Brady benefits from.

However as he gets older and continues to lead his teams on deep playoff runs and to Super Bowl wins, his truly unmatched value becomes harder to ignore – which could work to his advantage in the eyes of MVP voters if he has yet another elite season.

Peyton Manning currently holds the record for the oldest player to be voted MVP, winning an astounding fifth award just two months before his 38th birthday.