An Open Letter by Australian Economists on Tradeoffs During the COVID-19 Crisis

Corresponding authors:

Chris Edmond (cedmond@unimelb.edu.au)

Steven Hamilton (steven_hamilton@gwu.edu)

Richard Holden (richard.holden@unsw.edu.au)

Bruce Preston (bruce.preston@unimelb.edu.au)

The views expressed are those of the signatories and not necessarily those of their employer.

19 April 2020

Dear Prime Minister and Members of the National Cabinet:

The undersigned economists have witnessed and participated in the public debate about when to relax social-distancing measures in Australia. Some commentators have expressed the view that there is a trade-off between the public health and economic aspects of the crisis. We, as economists, believe this is a false distinction.

We cannot have a functioning economy unless we first comprehensively address the public health crisis. The measures put in place in Australia, at the border and within the states and territories, have reduced the number of new infections. This has put Australia in an enviable position compared to other countries, and we must not squander that success.

We recognise that the measures taken to date have come at a cost to economic activity and jobs, but believe these are far outweighed by the lives saved and the avoided economic damage due to an unmitigated contagion. We believe that strong fiscal measures are a much better way to offset these economic costs than prematurely loosening restrictions.

As has been foreshadowed in your public remarks, our borders will need to remain under tight control for an extended period. It is vital to keep social-distancing measures in place until the number of infections is very low, our testing capacity is expanded well beyond its already comparatively high level, and widespread contact tracing is available.

A second-wave outbreak would be extremely damaging to the economy, in addition to involving tragic and unnecessary loss of life.

Sincerely,

Alison Booth—Professor of Economics, Australian National University

Jeff Borland—Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne

Lisa Cameron—Professorial Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne

Efrem Castelnuovo—Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne

Deborah Cobb-Clark—Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney

Ashley Craig—Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Michigan

Chris Edmond—Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne

Nisvan Erkal—Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne

John Freebairn—Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne

Renée Fry-McKibbin—Professor of Economics, Australian National University

Joshua Gans—Professor of Strategic Management, University of Toronto

Jacob Goeree—Scientia Professor and Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School

Quentin Grafton—Professor of Economics, Australian National University

Simon Grant —Professor of Economics, Australian National University

Pauline Grosjean—Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School

Jane Hall—Distinguished Professor of Health Economics, University of Technology Sydney

Steven Hamilton—Assistant Professor of Economics, The George Washington University

Ian Harper—Dean and Director, Melbourne Business School, University of Melbourne

Richard Holden—Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School

David Johnston—Professor, Centre for Health Economics, Monash University

Flavio Menezes—Professor of Economics, The University of Queensland

Warwick McKibbin—Professor of Economics, Australian National University

Simon Mongey—Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Chicago

James Morley—Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney

Joseph Mullins—Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Minnesota

Abigail Payne— Professor and Director, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne

Bruce Preston—Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne

Sue Richardson—Emeritus Professor of Economics, Flinders University

Stefanie Schurer—Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney

Kalvinder Shields—Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne

John Quiggin—Professor of Economics, The University of Queensland

Simon Quinn—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Oxford

James Vickery—Senior Economic Advisor and Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Tom Wilkening—Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne

Justin Wolfers —Professor of Economics and Professor of Public Policy, University of Michigan

Yves Zenou—Professor of Economics, Monash University



Alfredo Paloyo—Senior Lecturer, University of Wollongong

Pei Cheng Yu—Lecturer, University of New South Wales

Isa Hafalir—Professor of Economics, University of Technology Sydney

Emil Temnyalov—Senior Lecturer, University of Technology Sydney

Hongyi Li—Senior Lecturer, UNSW Business School

Christopher Gibbs—Senior Lecturer, The University of Sydney

Gordon Menzies—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Technology Sydney

Viet Nguyen—Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne

Aarti Singh—Associate Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney

Silvia Mendolia—Senior Lecturer, University of Wollongong

Andrew John—Associate Professor of Economics, Melbourne Business School, University of Melbourne

Akshay Shanker—Research Fellow, UNSW Business School

Yusuf Mercan—Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Mei Dong—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne

Tim Robinson—Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne

Ross Hickey—Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne

Onur Kesten—Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney

Mengheng Li—Lecturer, University of Technology Sydney

Peter Siminski—Professor of Economics, University of Technology Sydney

Guay Lim—Professorial Fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne

Ian McDonald—Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne

David P. Byrne—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne

Arpita Chatterjee —Senior Lecturer, UNSW Business School

Tomasz Wozniak—Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Mehmet Ozmen—Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Michael Coelli—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne

Trung Duc Tran—Research Fellow, The University of Sydney

Siqi Pan—Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Joshua B. Miller—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne

Xueyuan Wu—Associate Professor of Actuarial Studies, University of Melbourne

Leslie Martin—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Trung Duc Tran—Research Fellow, The University of Sydney

Sandy Suardi—Professor of Economics, University of Wollongong

Yong Song—Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Olena Stavrunova—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Technology Sydney

Robert Dixon—Professorial Fellow, University of Melbourne

Tom Kompas—Professor of Environmental Economics and Biosecurity, University of Melbourne

Alexandru Nichifor—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Kevin Fox—Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School

Peter Lloyd—Professor Emeritus of Economics, University of Melbourne

Andrew Clarke—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Hayley Fisher—Senior Lecturer, The University of Sydney

Garry Barrett—Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney

Alberto Motta—Associate Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School

Oleg Yerokhin—Senior Lecturer, University of Wollongong

Anton Kolotilin—Associate Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School

Kristle Romero Cortés—Senior Lecturer, UNSW Business School

John Romalis—Sir Hermann Black Chair of Economics, The University of Sydney

Keiichi Kawai—Senior Lecturer, UNSW Business School

May Li—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne

John Tang—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Victoria Baranov—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Shuping Shi—Professor of Economics, Macquarie University

Mariano Kulish—Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney

Frank Neri—Senior Lecturer, University of Wollongong

Lionel Page—Professor of Economics, University of Technology Sydney

Lawrence Uren—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Alastair Fraser—Lecturer, The University of Sydney

Gautam Bose—Associate Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School

Darla Hatton MacDonald—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Tasmania

Jorge Miranda-Pinto—Lecturer, The University of Queensland

Pedro Gomis-Porqueras—Professor of Economics, Deakin University

Sephorah Mangin—Senior Lecturer, Australian National University

Begoña Dominguez—Associate Professor of Economics, The University of Queensland

Isabella Dbrescu—Associate Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School

Faisal Sohail—Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Nicolas de Roos—Associate Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney

Andrew Wait—Associate Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney

Shuanming Li—Professor of Actuarial Studies, University of Melbourne

Kevin Staub—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Ivan Balbuzanov—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Nahid Khan—Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Francesco Carli—Senior Lecturer, Deakin University

Giovanni Caggiano—Associate Professor, Monash University

Wenying Yao—Senior Lecturer, Deakin University

Sam Tsiaplias—Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute, The University of Melbourne

Laura Puzzello—Senior Lecturer, Monash University

Ayushi Bajaj—Lecturer, Monash University

Benjamin Wong—Senior Lecturer, Monash University

Marco Faravelli—Associate Professor of Economics, The University of Queensland

Denni Tommasi—Lecturer, Monash University

Bin Peng—Senior Lecturer, Deakin University

Reshad Ahsan—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Heather Anderson—Professor of Economics and Econometrics, Monash University

Satoshi Tanaka—Senior Lecturer, University of Queensland

Dan Zhu—Senior Lecturer, Monash University

Farshid Vahid-Araghi—Professor of Econometrics, Monash University

Richard J Smith—Professorial Fellow, University of Melbourne

Jiti Gao—Donald Cochrane Chair of Business and Economics and Professor of Econometrics, Monash University

Qingyuan Du—Senior Lecturer, Monash University

Laura Panza—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Tim Moore—Associate Professor of Economics, Purdue University

Peter Sivey—Associate Professor of Economics, RMIT University

Federico Masera—Lecturer, UNSW Business School

Elif Incekara Hafalir—Lecturer, University of Technology Sydney

Maria Recalde—Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Lata Gangadharan—Professor of Economics, Monash University

Fabrizio Carmignani—Professor of Economics, Griffith University

Eik Swee—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Jiao Wang—Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne

Leo Simon—Professor of Economics, Monash University

Sarah Walker—Senior Lecturer, UNSW Business School

Robin Stonecash—Dean, School of Business and Tourism, Southern Cross University

Ryan Edwards—Fellow and Deputy Director, Australian National University

Leonora Risse—Lecturer, RMIT University

Timothy Kam—Associate Professor of Economics, Australian National University

Jonathan Thong—Sessional Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Terence Cheng—Senior Lecturer, The University of Adelaide

Wylie Bradford—Associate Professor of Economics, Macquarie University

David Ubilava—Senior Lecturer, The University of Sydney

Chung Tran—Associate Professor of Economics, Australian National University

Andres Bellofatto—Lecturer, The University of Queensland

Solmaz Moslehi—Senior Lecturer, Monash University

Chengsi Wang—Senior Lecturer , Monash University

Jenny Lye—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne

Carsten Murawski—Professor of Finance, University of Melbourne

Juan Carlos Carbajal—Associate Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School

Rhonda Smith—Senior Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Joe Hirschberg—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne

Rebecca Taylor—Lecturer, The University of Sydney

Stella Huangfu—Senior Lecturer, The University of Sydney

Jim Stanford—Economist and Director, Centre for Future Work

Satoshi Yamazaki—Senior Lecturer, University of Tasmania

Isaac Gross—Lecturer, Monash University

Mike Berry —Emeritus Professor, RMIT University

Asad Islam—Professor of Economics, Monash University

Hasin Yousaf—Lecturer, UNSW Business School

Kenan Kalaycı—Senior Lecturer, The University of Queensland

Adam Loch—Senior Lecturer, The University of Adelaide

Wang-Sheng Lee—Associate Professor of Economics, Deakin University

Agnieszka Tymula—Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney

Rodney Strachan—Professor of Econometrics, The University of Queensland

Alison Pennington—Senior Economist, Centre for Future Work

Julian Alston—Distinguished Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis

Brian Parker—Chief Economist, Sunsuper

Jing Tian—Senior Lecturer, University of Tasmania

Natalia Bailey—Senior Lecturer, Monash University

Hoa Nguyen—Senior Lecturer, Australian National University

Margaret McKenzie—Economist, Australian Council of Trade Unions

Warren Hogan—Industry Professor, University of Technology Sydney

Anthony Scott—Professor, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne Shirley Jackson—Economist, Per Capita

John de New—Professorial Fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne

Steven Williams—Professor of Economics, University of Melbourne

Alicia Rambaldi—Professor of Economics, The University of Queensland

Yuting Zhang—Professor of Health Economics , University of Melbourne

Nobu Yamashita—Senior Lecturer, RMIT University

Jongsay Yong—Principal Fellow, University of Melbourne

Tim Coelli—Adjunct Professor of Economics, The University of Queensland

Jan Kabatek—Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne

Susan Mendez—Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne

Guyonne Kalb—Professorial Fellow, University of Melbourne

Sisira Jayasuriya—Professor of Economics, Monash University

Chris O’Donnell—Professor of Econometrics, The University of Queensland

Ping Chen—Senior Lecturer of Actuarial Studies, University of Melbourne

Toan Nguyen—Research Associate, Curtin University

Pramod (Raja) Junankar—Adjunct Professor, UNSW Canberra

Joanne Flavel—Senior Research Officer, Flinders University

John Roberts—Scientia Professor, UNSW Business School

Jayatilleke Bandaralage—Professor of Economics, Griffith University

Premachnadra Athukorala—Professor of Economics, Australian National University

Sascha Becker—Professor of Economics, Monash University

Andrew McLennan—Professor of Economics, The University of Queensland

Budy Resosudarmo—Professor of Economics, Australian National University

Renaud Coulomb—Lecturer, University of Melbourne

Nathaniel Lane—Senior Lecturer, Monash University and SoDa Labs

Paul Raschky—Associate Professor of Economics, Monash University

Ummul Ruthbah—Senior Research Fellow, Monash University

Nicole Black—Associate Professor, Centre for Health Economics, Monash University

Martine Mariotti—Senior Lecturer, Australian National University

Phil Bodman—Professor of Economics & Deputy Executive Dean, The University of Queensland

Valentin Zelenyuk —Associate Professor of Economics, The University of Queensland

Maria Estela Varua—Associate Professor of Economics, Western Sydney University

Steven Bond-Smith—Research Fellow, Curtin University

Martin Hensher—Associate Professor of Health Systems Financing and Organisation, Deakin University

Sonja de New—Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Health Economics, Monash University

Mehmet Ulubasoglu—Professor of Economics, Deakin University

Arghya Ghosh—Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School

Pasquale Sgro—Professor of Economics, Deakin University

Stephen Kirchner—Program Director, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney

Prasad Bhattacharya—Senior Lecturer, Deakin University

Michael Shields—Professor of Economics, Monash University

Ian McEwin—Visiting Professor of Law, Australian National University

Carlos Pimienta—Associate Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School

Shashi Karunanethy—Director (Economics), Geografia

Cahit Guven—Senior Lecturer, Deakin University

Rosalie Viney—Professor of Health Economics, University of Technology Sydney

Emilia Tjernström—Lecturer, The University of Sydney

Todd Morris—Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy

Peter Exterkate—Lecturer, The University of Sydney

Tom Miller—Chief Executive Officer, Cambridge Energy Partners

David Cousins—Principal, PI Research Pty. Ltd.

Harry Bloch—Emeritus Professor of Economics, Curtin University

Rosanna Scutella—Senior Research Fellow, RMIT University

Samuel Zhang—Research Fellow, Deakin University

Andrew Partington—Research Fellow, Flinders University & Macquarie University

Alberto Posso—Professor of Economics, RMIT University

Russell Thomson—Associate Professor of Economics, Swinburne University of Technology

Luca Colombo—Associate Professor of Economics, Deakin University

Paola Labrecciosa—Associate Professor of Economics, Monash University

Tapen Sinha—AXA Chair Professor of Risk Management, ITAM, Mexico

Kelly Trinh—Lecturer, James Cook University

Aaron Blanco—Doctor of Economics, University of Melbourne

Caitlin Brown—Assistant Professor of Economics, Central European University

Scott French—Lecturer, UNSW Business School

David Delacretaz—Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Oxford

Nicolas Salamanca—Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne

Maryam Naghsh Nejad—Senior Research Fellow, University of Technology Sydney

Simon Foster—Professor of International Commerce, University of Oxford

Boon Han Koh—Lecturer in Economics, University of East Anglia

Anne Junor—Hon Associate Professor, UNSW Business School

Dominic Meagher—Executive Director, Australasia Strategy Group

Tracey-Lea Laba—Associate Professor, Centre for Health Economics Research and Evaluation, University of Technology Sydney

Michael Woods—Professor of Health Economics, University of Technology Sydney

Paul Kofman—Professor of Finance, University of Melbourne

Anke Leroux—Senior Lecturer, Monash University

Sang-Wook (Stanley) Cho—Senior Lecturer, UNSW Business School

Marian Vidal-Fernandez—Associate Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney

Brendan Mulhern—Senior Research Fellow in Health Economics, University of Technology Sydney

Bao Nguyen—Lecturer, University of Tasmania

Omid Mousavi—Economist, Department of Treasury and Finance Victoria

Clement Wong—Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne

Michelle Baddeley—Professor of Economics and Associate Dean Research, University of Technology Sydney

Jerry Courvisanos—Associate Professor of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Federation University Australia

Yunho Cho—Assistant Professor, Jinan Univeristy

Stephanie McWhinnie—Senior Lecturer, University of Adelaide

Nathan Kettlewell—Research Fellow, University of Technology Sydney

Benoit Julien—Associate Professor of Economics, UNSW Business School

Joanna Poyago-Theotoky—Professor of Economics, La Trobe University

Jason Zein—Associate Professor of Finance, UNSW Business School

Neil Hart—Research Fellow, UNSW Business School

Angeline Panayi-Motus—Senior Economics Teacher, Seymour College, Adelaide SA

Nerina Vecchio—Senior Lecturer, Griffith University

Abbas Valadkhani—Professor of Economics, Swinburne University of Technology

Kadir Atalay—Associate Professor of Economics, The University of Sydney

Anastasia Burkovskaya—Lecturer, The University of Sydney

Maroš Servátka—Professor of Economics, Macquarie Business School

Ian King—Professor of Economics, The University of Queensland

Haishan Yuan—Lecturer, The University of Queensland

Phong Ngo—Senior Lecturer, Australian National University

Jingjing Zhang—Associate Professor of Economics, University of Technology Sydney

Le Zhang—Senior Lecturer, Macquarie University

Eugene Lim—Advisor, Planum Partners

Vai-Lam Mui—Associate Professor of Economics, Monash University

Lisa Gold—Associate Professor of Health Economics, Deakin University

Nikki McCaffrey—Senior Research Fellow, Deakin University

Liam Wagner—Lecturer, Griffith University

Cameron Gordon—Associate Professor of Economics, Australian National University

Caroline Riot—Senior Lecturer, Griffith University

Anthony Harris—Professor of Economics, Monash University

Sarah Dahmann—Research Fellow, The University of Sydney

Jo-Ann Suchard—Associate Professor of Finance, UNSW Business School

Clinton Watkins—Professor and Director, Global Business, Akita International University, Japan

