'Even in the best-case scenario' Santa Clara County expects 2,000 deaths in 12 weeks

Projections shared by the San Jose deputy city manager anticipate 2,000 deaths, on the low end, from coronavirus in Santa Clara County. Projections shared by the San Jose deputy city manager anticipate 2,000 deaths, on the low end, from coronavirus in Santa Clara County. Photo: Google Maps Photo: Google Maps Image 1 of / 27 Caption Close 'Even in the best-case scenario' Santa Clara County expects 2,000 deaths in 12 weeks 1 / 27 Back to Gallery

"Even in a best-case scenario," officials are projecting 2,000 people will die from the coronavirus in Santa Clara County over a 12-week period.

The projections were shared by San Jose Deputy City Manager Kip Harkness, who announced them at a city council meeting first reported on by the Mercury News. According the San Jose Office of Emergency Management, 2,000 individuals infected with COVID-19 may die in 12 weeks. If no mitigation measures were taken, that number could have risen to 16,000 in the same time span.

"Even in that best-case scenario, we were looking at the order — in the next 12 weeks — of 2,000 potential deaths directly from COVID-19,” Harkness said.

Currently, Santa Clara County has 542 confirmed cases and 19 deaths, but Harkness warned this was almost certainly just a fraction of the infected individuals in the county. Because the county, like many others, has had difficulty obtaining tests, current stats "vastly undercount the number of actual cases."

"Our models suggest that it could be 25 times higher or more than the number of reported cases," Harkness said. "That means we have a false sense of security in terms of thinking, 'Oh, everybody who's tested, those are the only ones who are infected.' There are a large number of us walking around who are infected."

Even using "pretty conservative assumptions about transmission," Harkness said the Office of Emergency Management estimates there are 9,000 to 19,000 cases currently active in Santa Clara County.

"There is widespread infection in the county now," he said.

Where cases have been confirmed in the greater Bay Area:

ALAMEDA COUNTY: 164 confirmed cases, 4 deaths*

Fore more information on Alameda County cases, visit the public health department website.

*Number excludes infected patients in City of Berkeley, which has its own health department and 14 cases.

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY: 131 confirmed cases, 1 death

For more information on Contra Costa County cases, visit the public health department website.

LAKE COUNTY: 0 confirmed cases

For information on Lake County and coronavirus, visit the public health department website.

MARIN COUNTY: 60 confirmed cases

Fore more information on Marin County cases, visit the public health department website.

MONTEREY COUNTY: 24 confirmed cases

For more information on Monterey County cases, visit the public health department website.

NAPA COUNTY: 3 cases

For more information on Napa County cases, visit the public health department website.

SAN BENITO COUNTY: 6 confirmed cases, 1 death

For more information on San Benito County cases, visit the public health department website.

SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY: 223 confirmed cases, 2 deaths

For more information on San Francisco County cases, visit the public health department website.

SAN MATEO COUNTY: 195 confirmed cases, 5 deaths

For more information on San Mateo County cases, visit the public health department website.

SANTA CLARA COUNTY: 459 confirmed cases, 17 deaths

Fore more information on Santa Clara County cases, visit the public health department website.

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY: 32 confirmed cases

For more information on Santa Cruz County cases, visit the public health department website.

SOLANO COUNTY: 31 confirmed cases

For more information on Solano County cases, visit the public health department website.

SONOMA COUNTY: 34 confirmed cases, 1 death

For more information on Sonoma County cases, visit the public health department website.

In California, 67 coronavirus-related deaths have been reported, according to Johns Hopkins University.

MORE CORONAVIRUS COVERAGE:

Sign up for 'The Daily' newsletter for the latest on coronavirus here.

Katie Dowd is a digital editor with SFGATE. Email her: katie.dowd@sfgate.com.