FRIDAY FEATURE: London Jaguars? No Thanks, But I have another idea

“I would hope that I was financially able to quit, that’s what I would hope because if I was my papers would be the first ones in.”

That is the response 8-year veteran Andrew Whitworth, a players union representative, recently gave when asked if he would ever consider playing for a franchise located in London. The All-Star Offensive Tackle didn’t stop there, saying:-

“I don’t see that a lot of guys would want to do that. I don’t see any players that would enjoy that. Sure, you may find a handful of guys that say, ‘Oh hey, that’d be cool,’ but the rest of them wouldn’t.”

While it has to be said that Whitworth’s current team, the Cincinnati Bengals, is at no risk of being relocated to London, the age of free-agency in the NFL means he could very well be on the roster of an at-risk franchise by the time a decision is made. Are we to believe that he would rather walk away from millions of dollars in salary than play for a team based in London? If we are, this represents yet another significant problem for the NFL in their quest to conquer Europe. Many informed members of the media consider a London franchise a mere formality, expecting it to happen before the end of the decade, which raises the question, why is placing an NFL franchise in London seemingly such a formality, and is it a good idea?

Since the Miami Dolphins hosted the New York Giants at Wembley Stadium in 2007, the NFL community in the United Kingdom has been overwhelmed with chatter of the NFL gracing London with a franchise to call its own. At first the St Louis Rams were the favourite to relocate, followed by the current favourites, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Personally I saw the chances of the Rams moving to London as likely as Lionel Messi signing for Portsmouth FC out of the kindness of his heart. It was a pipe dream, the longest-of-long-shots.

The Rams moved from Los Angeles to St Louis in 1995 and still have a significant fan base in the City of Angels. How does this affect London? If you take a look at a map showing the locations of all 32 NFL Franchises, you will see a glaring omission. LA is the second largest television market in the United States (behind New York, which has two franchises), yet has no team to call its own. Los Angeles has to be priority number one, before London.

The LA Raiders moved back to Oakland the same year the Rams skipped town, leaving the city crying for a franchise for almost 18 years. They came close at the turn of the millennium, but infighting between ownership groups allowed Bob McNair to swoop in at the last minute to bring us the Houston Texans.

In recent years the Minnesota Vikings, San Diego Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Carolina Panthers, Buffalo Bills and St Louis Rams have all been linked with a move to Los Angeles. 7 of the 32 franchises in the NFL have been linked to a move, and 6 of those 7 is for the same reason; a stadium. A stadium means everything to an NFL Franchise. If you have a high-end stadium, you can charge high-end prices, specifically the six figures it takes to occupy a luxury box for 8 games a season. 6 of these 7 teams have been, or still are, battling their respective local governments for funds to renovate their current stadiums or build a new one from the ground up. The Vikings, Rams and Bills have all been successful in recent months in holding their local legislatures ransom for stadium upgrades with the argument of “Upgrade our facilities, or we are moving to Los Angeles”. It may be a mercenary way to treat your fans, who will end up paying in increased taxes, but it’s effectiveness as a strategy cannot be denied.

That leaves us with the Chargers, Raiders, Panthers and Jaguars as possibilities to move to LA. As I previously mentioned, the Raiders used to be located in LA, which is precisely why they will always remain on the “contenders” list until the situation is rectified, and the Chargers seem to be in a never-ending struggle for NFL relevancy that would surely be cured by a move to LA, and the shiny new stadium that would accompany it. So with the LA void filled by the hypothetical move of either the Chargers or Raiders, that allows us to move onto London with the two teams remaining on our list, the Carolina Panthers and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

These two teams were both expansion teams in 1995, and have both experienced some levels of success over the past 18 years. Unfortunately this is where the similarities end. I mentioned before how 6 of the 7 teams mentioned were linked with a move for a stadium. The outlying franchise? The Jacksonville Jaguars. While talk of the Panthers relocating is purely a negotiating ploy by politically astute (this is the kindest way I could phrase it) owner Jerry Richardson to get renovations to Bank of America Stadium paid for by anyone but himself, the Jaguars are a legitimate threat to move to London for one simple reason – nobody understands why the Jaguars are in Jacksonville.

When Jacksonville was awarded a franchise in 1993, they were considered a long shot at best. They were competing against Charlotte, who won the first of two franchises, (Carolina Panthers) Baltimore, Memphis and St Louis. They were championed by then-NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue and NFL Vice-President (and current Commissioner) Roger Goodell, winning the vote with the owners 26-2. Although Jacksonville is a large city by population and land-coverage, it is not one of the largest media markets in the United States. In fact, it recently ranked 50th in the nation in market size, which is the fourth smallest of all 32 NFL Franchises, ahead of the New Orleans Saints, Buffalo Bills and Green Bay Packers.

So with 3 franchises with smaller markets, why are the Jaguars on the chopping block? The smallest market is in Green Bay for the Packers. The Packers have existed since 1919 and are an American institution. When they are on national TV, people tune in to watch. Their media-market size is insignificantly irrelevant when compared to the history that the word “Packers” invoked. The idea of moving the Green Bay Packers to Los Angeles, London or low-earth orbit is slightly less likely than moving Buckingham Palace to Beijing. It will not happen in my lifetime, your lifetime or the lifetime of the NFL.

Next up is the Buffalo Bills, who as I mentioned earlier recently negotiated upgrades to their current stadium, holding them to Buffalo for the next decade. If they had not signed this deal, the debate as to whether they should move to London or Toronto would be much louder than any to be had regarding the Jaguars. They play in a small-time market with a small-time owner. Despite my belief that the Bills should cut and run as soon as possible, this is not a possibility until at least 2023. I hope I am still around in ten years to explain why the Bills should be moving to anywhere but Buffalo at the first opportunity they get. The

So of the three teams with smaller media markets than our Jacksonville Jaguars, we have one team who have become a national institution and another that has signed a deal to stay in their city for the foreseeable future. The New Orleans Saints fall under both of these umbrellas. Since the tragedy of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the Saints grabbed the attention of the nation to rebuild and become champions of the world in 2010. The team was nail-bitingly close to moving to another city in the wake of Katrina. Public outcry at gutting an already gutted city by taking away their NFL franchise lead to a swift about-face and once they were back on steady ground, the state gave them a deal to stay in the Superdome until 2025.

So if a small media market for these teams doesn’t matter, why should it matter for the Jacksonville Jaguars? In all honesty, they aren’t sexy.

National TV games are a good gauge to measure a team’s nationwide popularity. Pull in big ratings, you will be placed in more prime-time games the following seasons. Currently there are 3 slots a week; Thursday night, Sunday night and Monday night. Since the beginning of last season, there have been 98 prime time games scheduled (including the upcoming season, yet to be played). Of these 98 nationally televised games, the Jacksonville Jaguars have been awarded a grand total of 2. That is 1 per season. Considering it is now mandated that each team get at least 1 national game per season, the NFL is giving the Jaguars the absolute bare minimum required in terms of exposure. Is there a bigger indication that a team has extremely limited appeal than the fact that they are not trusted by their own league and its television partners to draw viewers to the TV?

By now you must be asking, if they aren’t in a big media market and they don’t draw viewers nationally, surely they must be beloved and well supported by Jacksonville residents for the NFL to want them there?

It’s a nice theory, but no. The Jaguars rank near the bottom in attendance figures, often having to tarp-off large sections of the stadium to avoid the NFL “Blackout Rules”, which state a team must sell a predetermined percentage of tickets available for the game otherwise local fans will not be able to watch on TV. Rather than fill the stadium in defiance of this rule, the fans have forced the Jaguars to take the more drastic step of deciding to not even attempt to sell tickets to large portions of the stadium. At one point, former owner Wayne Weaver wrote a check to the league for unsold tickets to avoid blackouts.

The Jaguars did not have a blackout during the 2012 season, and they are not scheduled to have one in 2013. Whilst this does mark somewhat of an improvement, the extent of the improvement is open to interpretation. $20 tickets, albeit in the less desirable seats, will always increase your attendance. They have also employed tactics like “Teal Deals”, which reward season ticket owners with up to $3000 worth of coupons for local businesses. I will be the first to admit that my knowledge of the phenomenon knows as “Extreme Couponing” is fairly limited, but $3000 for each season ticket holder, even in coupon form, is a large commitment from local businesses. Local businesses have also been known to collectively buy tickets and donate them to local charities.

I have nothing but praise for local business owners providing tickets for in-need charities. It is a fantastic idea and if all business owners had the same philanthropic desires as those in Jacksonville, the world would be a very different place. But it isn’t 100% selfless. Between the “Teal Deals” and helping fill out the stadium, the local businesses are illustrating why cities often bankrupt themselves to keep a professional sports team. Is what they are doing unique to Jacksonville? No. Is what they are doing a good thing for all involved? Absolutely.

Without the Jaguars, local business would suffer and any chance that low attendance could lead to them losing their 5-month a year cash cow has to be quashed. I must stress that I fully support what they are doing, but it does highlight the issue – they are having to take drastic measures to sell-out a stadium with an already reduced capacity. If they could fill it, the Jaguars would have the 4th largest stadium in the NFL with a capacity of 76,876, but they run a weekly reduced capacity of 67,246. I can’t help but think of a golfer struggle to reach the fairway, even when he is teeing off from the front tee.

Not one of the issues I have raised is unique to the Jaguars. They are not the smallest TV market, they are not the only team to only have 2 prime time games the last 2 seasons (Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns) and they are not the only team to have ever taken drastic measures to not black-out local coverage. They are, however, the only team to do all three on a consistent basis. So what can they do about it?

The answer lies solely in the hands of the residents of Jacksonville. While it is not a formality that the Jaguars will move out of Jacksonville, any potential to do so depends on the fans and the fans alone.

When Shad Khan purchased the team in 2011, he gave a commitment to Weaver, the previous owner, to keep the Jaguars in Jacksonville for at least 5 years. Failure to do so would invoke a clause where Khan would have to give $25 million to Weavers favourite charity. Khan has also spoken publicly of having a responsibility to the people of Jacksonville to support the team in the city and grow their market size around Jacksonville. He has negotiated some short-term upgrades to Everbank Stadium recently, including an oversized scoreboard that will show NFL Redzone, a phenomenon of a TV station focused around live fantasy football updates. Despite all of this, he gave an answer to the Jacksonville Daily Record that summed up the future of football in Jacksonville when asked about any long-term upgrades planned for the stadium: -

“I think the long term is, how about getting the tarps off those seats? That would be the No. 1 long-term objective I would have.”

Read that as you will, but I read that as he will do everything he can to give the Jaguars a chance to succeed long term in Jacksonville, but it is down to the fans. If they do not hold up their end of the deal, changes will be coming. Shad Khan is a business man, not a Football fan. This is why he was ready and willing to volunteer for one game a season at Wembley for the next four years. Those games in London make more money than the games in Jacksonville. He is an example of the American Dream, an immigrant who went onto become billionaire multiple times over. He knows how to make money, and having areas of the Stadium empty does not make money.

So what are his options? London, which brings me back to where I started.

With the Los Angeles situation filled by either the Raiders or Chargers, the Jaguars are in a prime position to occupy what will be (by some margin) the largest media market in the NFL. In Jacksonville the Jaguars have to compete with the Miami Dolphins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their state alone, and that is before you look north and find the New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers. With a move to London, they will immediately own the United Kingdom. This seems to be where the discussion of a move to London begins and ends, placing the Jaguars in the Olympic Stadium and being done with it. I want to go one step further.

Placing a team in London will create a significant strain on the fan base, and while there is significant support for the NFL in the UK, I do have concerns about selling out 10 games (2 pre season, 8 regular season) games per year 10 years from now. With the growing presence in the UK, more and more people are committed to a specific team. All 32 teams have a representative fan base, with the 49ers and Cowboys leading the charge in support. So after the initial excitement of a team in London has subsided, where does that leave us down the road?

In a recent poll on www.NFLUK.com, the centre for all NFL fans in the United Kingdom, 52% of respondents answered “No” when asked “Are you in support of a London Franchise?”. With over half of your core fan base not supporting the venture before it even begins, how can we be sure the sport will attract new viewers once it takes up residence in London? Winning will certainly do that, but we know that winning is no guarantee in sport.

Every NFL team has down years (or in the case of the Buffalo Bills, down decades), so how sure can we be that a London team won’t be in the same situation Jacksonville is currently in? As big of a supporter of the NFL as I am in the UK, could I say with a degree of certainty that after a 2-14 season, the London Jaguars will not face a steep decline in attendance? No, I could not.

So if the people of Jacksonville do not force him to keep the team in the city, what does Shad Khan do? Does he move the team to London in the hope that they will catch the long term support of the nation and become possibly the most valuable franchise in the league or does he keep them in Jacksonville and be happy with turning over reasonable profits each year? In all likelihood they will move to London. The finances make too much sense for them not to, but what about a Plan C?

Plan C still calls for relocation to London. It still calls for them to be based out of the Olympic Stadium. Plan C will give us the European Jaguars (Team name to be replaced by PR professionals of course).

I can hear the cries around the world, “Wait, NFL Europe Failed!”. Yes, NFL Europe did fail. It failed for one simple reason; no one wants to pay to see second rate players. For every Kurt Warner, a Quarterback who played in NFL Europe and went on to win two Most Valuable Player awards in the NFL, there were 500 mediocre players. NFL Europe had good attendance figures at the start, but the poor quality of play and severe lack of promotion lead to the downfall of the last development league of the NFL. Give Europe an NFL representative with top quality players? That will sell out every game.

How is this idea different to just calling them the London Jaguars? Well firstly, they would only play 4 of their 8 home games per season in London. The other 4 games will be played in Berlin, Frankfurt, Barcelona and Amsterdam. Those are four cities who would undoubtedly fill out a stadium once per season to support a team representing them. What if one of these cities doesn’t pull their weight? Well that is the beauty of Plan C. Each city is guaranteed a game for as long as they sell-out. If Barcelona manages to only sell 95% of their tickets, watch out Milan, here come the Jaguars!

Why is this a better idea than placing a team in London full time? Despite the best efforts of the NFL, there is a finite number of people in the UK willing to pay out for what amounts to an expensive day to go to an NFL Game. Is that number going to grow? Of course. Will that number sustain 8 home games during a losing season? Possibly not. So with 50% of the attendance burden placed around Europe, the pressure on London to justify having a team is halved immediately. Furthermore, the market across Europe for NFL is substantial, with fans in Germany unhappy with the attention London has received from the NFL. Support for a London team is going to have limited reach across Europe, so rather than cutting all these fans out, why not invite them to the party?

Some might say that if London is unable to support a team long-term and has to rely on games abroad, they should not be considered for a franchise. That is a valid point. That is the point I made earlier about Jacksonville, but while London might be able to support them long-term, Europe will absolutely be able to provide support and add considerable growth to the league. There is a massive void of Football in Europe waiting to be filled. Instead of being broadcast to less than 1 million viewers locally with the occasional nationally televised game, they would be broadcasting to their new market, the 739 million residents of Europe. Will they all watch? Of course not. Will more people watch compared to the ratings the Jaguars get? Without a doubt.

So by placing a team to represent all of Europe, the NFL owners will be increasing the size of the pie they share by a significant amount. They will be creating a market of tens of millions of fans for a single team, as well as increasing the visibility of the teams who come to visit.

Many have raised concerns over the logistics of having a team play in London, mainly the long flights between games. But having 2-3 weeks in a row of road games and allowing teams travelling to Europe to have a bye the following week, this is negated to a level on par to the travel that Seattle and San Francisco have to endure each time they head East. It is by no means an insurmountable challenge, and with the amount of money at stake, it is one the NFL ownership committee could solve before breakfast.

So we have happy fans and happy owners. What about the players? Once again, this comes down to money.

Many, like Andrew Whitworth, have expressed reservations about any full-time occupation of Europe, but they are not seeing the full picture. The NFL Salary cap is based of profits the league makes as a collective. The more revenue, the higher the salary cap. The higher the salary cap, more money for the players. The league recently went through a bitter lockout with the players and team owners disagreeing on how to split up the ever-expanding pie of NFL revenues. Surely they can agree that expanding the pie is best for everyone involved?

This is a win-win-win situation for all involved, it is just down to the NFL Players Association to educate their members as to why an NFL franchise in Europe is in their best interest.

The owners want it, Europe wants it, we just need the players to want it.

Bring the Jaguars to Europe.

By Jack Bloomfield