On November 5, the administration was singing the praises of an economic recovery that allegedly created 1.1 million jobs this year. Before we dive into what's really happening with jobs, please consider Remarks by the President on the October Jobs Report

THE PRESIDENT: Good morning, everybody. We are in the middle of a tough fight to get our economy growing faster, so that businesses across our country can open and expand, so that people can find good jobs, and so that we can repair the terrible damage that was done by the worst recession in our lifetimes. Today we received some encouraging news.



Based on today’s jobs report, we’ve now seen private-sector job growth for 10 straight months. That means that since January, the private sector has added 1.1 million jobs. Let me repeat, over the course of the last several months, we’ve seen over a million jobs added to the American economy. In October, the private sector has added 159,000 jobs. And we learned that businesses added more than 100,000 jobs in both August and September as well. So we’ve now seen four months of private-sector job growth above 100,000 [jobs], which is the first time we’ve seen this kind of increase in over four years.

151,000 Jobs In October? Really?

THE JOBS REPORT FOR OCTOBER was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, and at first blush was surprisingly strong, much stronger, indeed, than expected. Payrolls expanded by 151,000 and the two previous months' were revised upward. But hold the hurrahs.



Happily, the always astute Stephanie Pomboy of MacroMavens provided a quickie explanation:



"The seasonal bar which the payroll data must jump was (inexplicably and dramatically) lowered from prior Octobers."



Thus in October 2009, the BLS set the bar at 870,000 jobs, similar to the 840,000 it anticipated in October 2008. This year, by contrast, it lowered the bar to 768,000. Mumbo, jumbo, payrolls presented "an upside surprise" of 100,000.

Household Survey vs. Establishment Survey

Establishment Survey

Household Survey

click on chart for sharper image

Civilian Noninstitutional Population

Household Survey Shows Loss of 330,000 Jobs

Hooray!??

Participation Rate

Participation Rate

Not in the Labor Force

dropped out

rose

Unemployment Rate Magic