Martha McSally's U.S. Senate ambitions began at least last summer

The invitations to a "special announcement" show a smiling Martha McSally, dressed in red, standing in front of a plane with U.S. military markings.

There are three such events on the Republican congresswoman's calendar Friday: at a jet center in Tucson, an air hangar in Phoenix and the historic Yavapai County Courthouse in Prescott.

McSally's big announcement should end three months of public speculation about her interest in running for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Jeff Flake. But if the rollout of a Senate campaign has been slow, her interest in it goes back until at least the summer.

On July 21, two days after Sen. John McCain publicly acknowledged he had an aggressive brain tumor, McSally's team reserved the website McSallyforSenate.com using the same third-party service it had used in February to renew McSallyforCongress.com, her longstanding House campaign website.

They also reserved MarthaMcSallyforSenate.com the same day.

Early in her second term in the House of Representatives, McSally was eyeing the Senate while publicly focusing on her tough re-election prospects.

Andrea Bozek, a spokeswoman for McSally's campaign, said the Arizona Republican was focused on Flake's sinking re-election prospects in summer 2017, and not taking advantage of McCain's health problems.

"At the time, there were numerous stories about Jeff Flake’s future, his book and the White House was meeting with potential primary opponents and Representative McSally was being mentioned in every story," Bozek said.

Months later, McSally and some of her staffers met with McCain on Oct. 26, two days after Flake announced in a speech from the Senate floor that he would not seek re-election.

“Martha speaks with Senator McCain often and is praying for his swift recovery and continued health," Bozek said. "She finds any talk about his Senate seat extremely offensive and disgusting.”

McSally's Senate ambitions, however, would remain unknown. She told her fellow Arizona Republicans in the House she was entering the race but didn't make it public, and kept her distance from Arizona reporters.

By contrast, Joe Arpaio, the former Maricopa County sheriff who entered the Senate race on Monday, still isn't operating a full campaign website. For the moment, Arpaio is seen as leading a three-way race with McSally and Kelli Ward, the former state senator who for months after Flake's exit was the only declared candidate for the Republican nomination.

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, the most prominent Democrat in the race, announced her own long-rumored plans in September.

Adjusting to shifting winds

Many have weighed their political futures in recent months. But until this week, no one stepped forward to challenge Ward.

One complication for Republicans weighing a Senate run has been the possibility of two openings in the next year, given McCain's diagnosis.

The key to Flake's seat could hinge on the support of President Donald Trump, whom McSally kept at arm’s length during the campaign but has warmed to since he took office. Trump's support could tip a Republican primary.

The key to the McCain seat — were the six-term senator to be physically unable to finish his term — rests with Gov. Doug Ducey, who would appoint a replacement.

MORE: 5 ways Martha McSally shakes up Arizona's Senate race

For most of her three years in Congress, McSally has seemed more aligned with Ducey. She displayed a wonkish pragmatism that seemed a good fit for her politically divided district. She wasn’t a moderate, but wasn’t pushing ideological nonstarters.

McSally's balancing act didn't impress the conservative Club for Growth.

A political-action committee aligned with the Club and other national "tea party"-affiliated groups such as the Senate Conservatives Fund, FreedomWorks and Eagle Forum, put out a joint statement in opposition to McSally, who the groups said "masquerades as a conservative on the campaign trail but time and time again ... has abandoned conservative principles."

By contrast, House leadership has seen her as a rising star. McSally was named chairwoman of the House Subcommittee on Border and Maritime Security. A political-action committee friendly to House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., set up an office in Tucson last year to help bolster her re-election efforts in what was expected to be one of the fiercest House races this year.

But since January, McSally has become Arizona’s most reliable vote in the House for the Trump agenda. Most notably, she supported the GOP’s unpopular health-care plan that passed the House but failed in the Senate thanks, in part, to McCain’s dramatic thumb’s down.

McSally's popularity in her district has suffered. She trailed in some Democratic polling last spring.

Marion Chubon, who operates anti-McSally political-action committee Represent Me AZ, said she got involved in the race because of what she views as McSally's long record of misleading constituents.

“The more you research Martha McSally, the more confused you are because her positions seem to change with the situation,” Chubon said. “You never know what Martha you’re going to get.”

She noted a February town hall where McSally sidestepped a question on the qualifications of Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, saying the Senate had confirmed her.

“I am not in the Senate. Thank God,” McSally said at the time.

Flake’s surprise retirement announcement, in which he cited Trump's sway over GOP voters, underscored that Republicans could no longer deny Trump’s dominance of party politics.

McSally's pivot appeared to be the right political move for the moment.

Charting a new future

McSally kept a lid on her interest in the Senate through the summer. But once Flake exited his race, her ambition had all the secrecy of a neon sign.

In early November, she told Arizona’s other House Republicans she planned to run for Flake’s seat. Weeks later, Politico published a polling memo for McSally that showed her with a narrow lead over Ward.

In that time, McSally furthered her makeover as an enthusiastic Trump supporter.

She largely sidestepped questions about Trump in 2016, saying voters should make their own decisions without her input. McSally did condemn Trump after the release of the infamous “Access Hollywood” videotape in which he casually bragged about groping women without their consent.

“Trump's comments are disgusting. Joking about sexual assault is unacceptable. I'm appalled,” she wrote in a tweet.

By late 2017, however, McSally was tweeting pictures of herself with Ivanka Trump, and giving a thumb’s up alongside the president himself.

There were other signs of McSally’s plans.

In December, Lea Marquez Peterson announced she was running for the GOP nomination for the House seat McSally currently holds and she hired the same political consulting firm McSally uses. Days later, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell included McSally in a list of promising recruits in next year’s Senate races.

McSally, meanwhile, remained officially undeclared heading into the new year. Strategy, it seems, is always part of her plan.

Bozek said McSally's efforts to prepare for a Senate race last summer were part of modern campaign tactics, noting the use of websites to spout political attacks.

“It would be political malpractice for any Democrat or Republican digital team to let opponents spread misinformation using the candidate’s (website name). Which is why Kyrsten Sinema purchased www.SinemaforSenate.com on October 17, 2015."

Republic reporters Dan Nowicki and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez contributed to this article.

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