Aside from his first career trip to the World Series, 2018 was a year to forget for Brian Dozier. The free agent 2nd baseman posted career lows in avg (.215), OPS, and SB’s across a full season and finished with his 2nd lowest homerun total since his 2013 sophomore season, while only producing 1 WAR. Dozier, after being acquired at the All-Star break by the Dodgers, slashed an abysmal .182/.300/.350 across 137 At-bats and enters free agency with the cloud of last season looming over his head. However fear not Dozier lovers, for I believe that sunnier days are in store for the once long time Twinkie. 2018 was a year in which Dozier had a number of factors working against his favour, and a deep look into his batting peripherals indicate that 2018 should be more of an anomaly, rather than the new career norm for Dozier.

Firstly, one reason to believe that Dozier is poised for a bounce back season is the fact that he was playing through an underlying injury through the majority of 2018. Dozier suffered a deep bone bruise on his knee in early April which he consequently aggravated in May. Rather than go on the DL, something Dozier has never done in his career, he decided to play through the pain despite the injury having a significant impact on his swing. Dozier states that the injury affected his ability to fire into his front side, which is how he is able to create leverage and generate power. Without the full functioning use of his lower half, Dozier was unable to generate power and explosion, which is the main reason why I believe the homerun and stolen base total plummeted.

Another factor I believe that significantly hampered Dozier’s production in 2018 that won’t be a factor in 2019, was being acquired at the trade deadline by the Los Angeles Dodgers. Over the past 3 years Dozier 1st half slash line has been a weak hitting .239/.325/.430, while his 2nd half slash has been a torrid .279/.349/.548. Dozier has sited that it takes him a little while to get settled in to the season and I believe he was unable to do this at the start of the season due to the injury and then after the trade deadline due to the change in scenery. Not only did Dozier have to adjust to playing for a new team, but he also had to adjust to a new league and new pitchers. Considering that Dozier had been a life long Twin before this trade, many of the pitchers he had to face were pitchers he had never seen before which only prompted further adjustment.

On top of all this league adjustment that Dozier had to make, he also had to quickly adjust to a new role on a team that was battling in a play off race. Over the course of his career Dozier has always been an everyday player, however when he joined the star-studded Dodgers lineup, he found himself transitioned into more of a platoon role. Dozier only started and finished a total of 4 games throughout all of September and only had more than 4+ at bats in game four times. The lack of stability in plate appearances is detrimental to a notoriously streaky hitter like Dozier, as if he is unable to get constant AB’S in the times that he’s hot, the overall stat line is going to represent the cold Dozier.

A dive into Dozier’s batting peripherals and batted profile gives encouraging signs that a bounce back year is on the horizon. For one, Dozier posted the hardest contact rate of his career while also maintaining career norm in plate discipline metrics. Dozier’s 22.5% O-swing rate, which is a metric that gives insight to how well Dozier is seeing the ball, was the best rate of his career giving reason to believe that he hasn’t lost his strong sense of the strike zone. Though Dozier’s HR/FB % plummeted from career norms, that can be attributed by his inability to generate power from his lower half due to the early season injury. Dozier didn’t see a change in pitch mix compared to career norms either, which means that it’s not as if pitchers have figured out a way to exploit the 2nd baseman.

In summary, Brian Dozier fans, and free agent pursuers have reason to be encourage about a potential bounce back season. Dozier’s early season injury change of scenery at the deadline, and his strong batting peripherals are all indicators that 2018 was not a new career norm for the slugging 2nd baseman. Though unfortunate for Dozier, his value is at a career low right now and he could prove to be a steal for whichever organization is willing to roll the dice.