Above shows the results of the Lucid Talk analysis of voting intentions for the upcoming European Election (link). The analysis uses a collection of previous LucidTalk polls, previous Assembly, Westminster and European elections and interviews with LucidTalk’s representative panel, all weighted accordingly. There was no reported margin of error.

The biggest change in intention is the plummeting TUV figure, reported as 7.8% in the analysis, which would be a drop of nearly 6% from the last european election where they got 13.7, less than 3% away from the next highest candidate, the SDLP’s Alban Maginness. They would still get the fourth highest share of the vote, but would be dissapointed not to maintain their strong showing.

While it’s unclear where exactly that vote went, we see a highly fragmented unionist vote, splitting between 6 different parties. The DUP are the only unionist party who ran in the last election who would increase their vote, from 18.2% to 20.8%. It’s hard to see a clear reason for the increase apart from perhaps a desire to reduce vote splitting amongst unionist voters. They continue to be the dominant force in unionist politics with very little competition for the role.

At least some of the TUV vote is likely to have gone to UKIP, running in the European election for their first time in Northern Ireland. They register 2.1%, up almost 1% on their performance in the last LucidTalk poll conducted in September. While up slightly on the Lucid Talk poll of Assembly voting intentions conducted in September, they still remain a minor player in Northern Ireland. The other minor unionist party is the Conservatives who barely register with 0.8%.

Amongst other unionists, the UUP are down the most, nearly 3% from 17.1 to 14.2. This follows the trend of the past few elections where the UUP has consistently lost a share of support. However in this analysis they are above their figure reported in the LucidTalk poll of September last year which had them on 13.8%. While not a significant increase, it marks a reversal in the trend, though it must be remembered the September poll asked for Assembly voting intentions, this analysis is for the European Parliament.

The traditional assumed beneficiaries of the UUP’s decline, Alliance, don’t seem to have done so this time, falling slightly from 5.9% to 5.4%. Again, a miniscule figure but it marks the first time Alliance hasn’t recorded an increase in voting intention and is well below their figure of 10.2% in the September Assembly poll. They will be especially disappointed with this given their high profile candidate, Anna Lo.

Competing for the first time is NI21, a possible beneficiary from the UUP and Alliance decline, they get 3.2% in the analysis, down slightly from their 4.7% in the September poll. While the 3.2% figure isn’t huge, it shows that there is a support base for a moderate unionist party, they will be happy if they can establish this foundation from which to challenge for seats in the Assembly. Their real challenge is after the election however, whether they can grow on their initial figures and become a real force in northern politics.

The Green’s are down 1% from 3.3% to 2.3%, possibly suffering from the presence of NI21 or the lower-profile candidate in Ross Brown as opposed to Steven Agnew. Nonetheless they will be disappointed the growth in their figures didn’t continue.

Among the two nationalist parties, the SDLP will be pleased to be in with a chance of a seat, increasing their percentage for the first time in a while. They seem to have found the bottom of their decline and will be looking to translate that into seats at the next Assembly election.

Sinn Féin also shore up their vote, while perhaps dissapointed not to have taken a further share of the SDLP vote, they are still the dominant nationalist party and are even more solid in that role than the DUP in theirs.

Overall, we’re set for a return of the status quo in May, the biggest movers being smalls parties and the UUP, who remain likely to return a seat due to transfers but have lost further vote share from the last European election, whether their increase from the Lucid Talk poll in September is relevant remains to be seen. The momentum towards middle-ground parties seems to have stopped, while the vote has split between the minor and more moderate unionist parties, with the DUP shoring up support. Both they and Sinn Féin remain the dominant forces in their respective communities with the SDLP largely maintaining their vote share and thanks to the unionist vote splitting, are in with a chance of gaining the last seat.