Charlie Angus leads a new Mainstreet Research leadership poll of NDP rank-and-file members, and has presumed front-runner Jagmeet Singh trailing in last place.

But the picture isn’t totally clear on just who is leading the race to replace Tom Mulcair right now. Mainstreet’s polling doesn’t yet reflect newer party members Singh’s campaign has been signing up.

Mainstreet pollster Quito Maggi said the new polling numbers suggest Angus will give Singh “a run for his money” in this NDP leadership contest, after second quarter fundraising results showed Singh blew his competition out of the water.

The new figures from Mainstreet show that the base of NDP stalwart members largely favours Angus, which confirms early July polling numbers that show his solid support among party rank-and-file.

“Charlie has a very clear lead among existing membership,” Maggi said, adding that the race ultimately is likely to shake down to a contest between Angus and Singh.

Angus leads with 28 per cent of the membership polled, followed by Niki Ashton at 17 per cent, Guy Caron at 10.7 per cent and Singh at 8.6 per cent. Undecideds make up 35 per cent.

Maggi says that Singh’s path to victory is a road built on signing up new memberships — something this polling doesn’t really reflect yet because it focuses on current NDP members.

“Right from the get-go, we knew Singh’s path to victory was going to be signing up new members,” Maggi said.

“Charlie Angus is going to give him a run for his money, though, if his support among existing members stays as strong as it is.”

Mainstreet Research polled 1,804 NDP members from August 3 to 6, based off several years worth of party donor lists. The polling has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Combining decided voters and those leaning toward a candidate, Angus is far ahead with 42 per cent support, trailed by Niki Ashton at 28, Caron at 17 and Singh at 14 (all numbers have been rounded).

Maggi said newer party membership data still make for samples too small to release, but early figures suggest Singh is doing much better than is currently reflected through polling of the older NDP membership.

Other metrics place Singh ahead in the race. His campaign raised $356,784 in just the second quarter of 2017 from 1,681 donors — shooting him into the fundraising lead despite his late entry to the race. Angus is trailing in second at $234,342, which he collected over two quarters.

Singh also is leading in caucus support, mostly among B.C. MPs. On Monday, Singh picked up an endorsement from Windsor MP Brian Masse.

Next Thursday is the deadline for signing up new NDP members to vote in the leadership race. The federal party had roughly 60,000 members in 2016.