On March 28, the UN Security Council held a closed door discussion on developments in Georgia at Ukraine’s request. Speaking at his press briefing after the Security Council meeting, Ukraine’s Permanent Representative to the UN Volodymyr Yelchenko said one of the matters of concern was “the attempts of annexation and actions by the Russian Federation which are aimed at the factual unification of the armed forces of the Russian Federation and [South] Ossetia”. International community is waking up to the threat that Russia’s recent moves pose to Georgia, as well as to the regional security.

Ambassador Yelchenko was referring to March 14 decree signed by President Vladimir Putin signed that will see the armed forces of Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia integrated into the Russian military command structure in two ways: some detachments will join the Russian military base, while the remaining “armed forces of South Ossetia” will be organized on Russian Army’s pattern and tasked under Russian supervision.

The initial batch of 150 servicemen will join the Russian military base in the coming days and weeks. They, as well as those who will follow, would retain their military rank. The South Ossetian troops will be reduced by the number of servicemen that would join the Russian base. The files of the South Ossetian servicemen that join the Russian base will be assigned to the military commissariats of Russia’s North Ossetia.

The remaining South Ossetia troops (their exact number is unclear) will adopt the new rules of engagement and operating procedures subject to Moscow’s approval. In addition, the objectives and structure of the forces will be determined in agreement with Moscow in peacetime as well as in times of conflict. Salaries and social benefits of the South Ossetian servicemen will also be covered by Russia.

When combined, the two elements of the decree would practically make all South Ossetia troops either formally integrated, or practically run under Russian control.

Tbilisi condemned the decision as illegitimate. But its legal status notwithstanding the move directly impacts Georgia’s national security as well as the security of the region.

Massive militarization

Russia’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions as independent states after 2008 war was followed by dramatic militarization of both regions. Currently, Russia stations an estimated 4,500–5,000 military in each Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Border guards, subordinated to Russia’s Federal Security Bureau (FSB) and other paramilitary units are also present, with their number estimated 1,200-1,300 in each of these regions.

The Russian bases are equipped with offensive military gear, such as tanks and long-range artillery, including multiple rocket launch systems (MLRS), as well as sophisticated anti-access systems, such as S-300 antiaircraft batteries (NATO reporting name SA-10 Grumble).

In 2011, the two separatist governments of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali have signed an agreement allowing Russia to operate its military bases in both regions at least for 49 years. While the Russian deployments violate the commitments that Russia made in the cease-fire agreement with Georgia in 2008, Moscow argues that the recognition of the two states has created ‘a new reality’ of the new states inviting Russian troops, so that the cease-fire provisions are no longer relevant.

Given South Ossetia’s estimated total population of 53 thousand, the size of the Russian deployment – 7,000 – means that Russia has one military for every eight residents. Seen from this angle, Tskhinvali region looks more like a giant military fortress with attached population than as an independent state Russia pretends it to be.

A step towards annexation?