by THOMAS NEWDICK

Japan is working on a homegrown stealth fighter. It’s called the ATD-X. And we apparently just got our first glimpse of the prototype.

In mid-June, a blurry photo appeared on a Chinese Internet forum, purporting to depict the first ATD-X demonstrator aircraft outside a hangar in Tokyo.

The Japanese government hopes to develop the ATD-X into the frontline F-3 fighter to replace its Boeing F-15Js. Tokyo is also procuring the American-made F-35A Lightning II stealth fighter as a replacement for older F-4EJ Phantom IIs.

Tokyo plans to build 38 of the 42 Lockheed Martin F-35s itself and acquire the other four from the American factory. The total cost to Japan is $8 billion. Manufacturing the jets on the home islands should help sustain the domestic aerospace industry—specifically, fighter-maker Mitsubishi.

The ATD-X offers similar industrial benefits. But there’s a clear military rationale, as well.

As tensions with China escalate, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force sees a need for a warplane that is more than a stealthy “bomb truck”—as critics have portrayed the F-35. The Lightning II could prove useful, but no one pretends it’s a highly maneuverable air-to-air fighter.

And that’s exactly what Japan needs to defeat China’s own fighters.

Previously, Japan had hoped to acquire the American F-22 Raptor as its high-end fighter, but lawmakers in Washington banned export of the sophisticated warplane—and production has now ended.

The apparent ATD-X demonstrator. Photo via Chinese Internet

To be clear, Mitsubishi’s ATD-X demonstrator is not itself a fighter. It’s too small and it certainly lacks weapon systems. But it could lead to the F-3 fighter.

The photo, similar to the blurry snapshots that often precede the public unveilings of new Chinese warplane designs, looks like it may well be the real thing.

The garish red-and-white color scheme is typical of aircraft belonging to Japan’s Technical Research and Development Institute, which develops new air systems on behalf of Tokyo’s Ministry of Defense. TRDI’s i3 Fighter project is researching advanced technologies that could be applicable to a future combat jet.

In terms of outward appearance, the plane in the photo bears some resemblance to a previously published ATD-X configuration known as 23DMU, which the Defense Ministry first revealed at a Japanese defense symposium in late 2013. 23DMU is one of a series of three-dimensional digital mockups that Tokyo has used to study next-generation fighters.

Digital mockups for the ATD-X. Art via Chinese Internet

Like the 23DMU, the aircraft in the photo combines twin tail fins that cant outboard, closely coupled twin engines and a cropped delta wing with prominent leading-edge extensions.

Tokyo’s official fighter timeline also suggests the red-and-white aircraft is the ATD-X. According to the original plan, Mitsubishi was going to roll out the ATD-X in May 2014, but for some reason the company delayed. In September 2013, TRDI announced that static strength testing of the ATD-X airframe had begun.

According to Kyle Mizokami, War is Boring’s resident expert on Japanese aerospace technology, the photo was taken outside Nagoya Aerospace System Works, part of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. The cameraman was a Japanese amateur, Mizokami surmised. The serial number of the aircraft reportedly is 51001.

TRDI revealed a full-scale mockup of the ATD-X back in 2007. The research agency tested the model at a radar range in France in order to determine its ability to avoid detection. The mockup possessed an overall external appearance apparently influenced by the F-22, including thrust-vectoring paddles on its twin engines.

But in its latest 23DMU guise, the ATD-X looks more like the F-35 than the F-22, perhaps reflecting Japan’s intention to learn from co-production of the Lightning II.