Official test numbers massively underplay the scale of the epidemic because test capacity is limited and only a tiny fraction of those displaying symptoms are being tested.

In six other London boroughs more than one in 10 people now carry the virus, according to the modelling: Lambeth, Brent, Kensington and Chelsea, Harrow, Wandsworth and Westminster.

Cumbria in the North West and Wolverhampton in the Midlands are the worst-impacted areas outside London, with one in 13 and one in 15 people infected respectively.

Birmingham had the highest total number of infections, with a total of 50,004 estimated cases - one in every 23 people.

George Batchelor, a co-founder of Edge health, the company which conducted the modelling, warned that the UK epidemic would continue to spread at speed for the next few weeks.

The UK lockdown was only introduced five days ago and its impact in slowing the virus will take some time to become evident on the ground. Italy’s lockdown, implemented weeks before our own, is only now just starting to show up in the official data.

The Edge Health research team calculated the expected number of cases by looking at the total number of recorded deaths in each region, assuming a mortality rate of 0.7 per cent in London and 0.9 per cent outside the capital where the population is older.

The modelling can never be perfect but, based on the best available evidence on death rates, it is likely to give a reasonable indication of the current spread of the virus in England.

It points to the future demand that the NHS is bracing for, with people infected before Boris Johnson imposed a national lockdown expected to start to present in hospital wards across the country over the next few weeks.

Edge Health expects critical care bed occupancy to peak over a week in mid-April.

Kingston upon Hull, North East Lincolnshire and Hartlepool had the lowest estimated rate of infection, with one in every 619, 304 and 295 people infected respectively as of Thursday. The chart below shows the actual number of cases.