I wanted to throw a pitcher in between Lewis Brinson and Nomar Mazara to change things up a bit, but I just can't contain my excitement for the young hitter. 2016 will be Nomar's age 21 season and he will most likely be starting the season at AAA barring a Texas Ranger injury or seven. He is one of those special players where you don't really have to worry about him in any other way besides his performance because he is just so solid mentally and physically. I'm excited for this guy, and here is why you should be too.

Nomar Mazara

Mazara is a big dude. At 6'4' 205 pounds he's putting on a little more weight every year to his already substantial frame. One would expect Nomar's size to be the most striking thing about him, but the cool demeanor and the calm intelligent reserve is the first thing that struck me. In 2011, Mazara made the record books the moment he signed with the Rangers when he was given a $5 million bonus at 16 years old. Mazara almost immediately seems to be a good sign when at 17, he managed a 123 wRC+ with a 15.2% BB rate in the rookie league at 17, something many 18-19 year olds struggle with. Mazara struggled in 2013, but he flashed power and still managed a 101 wRC+ in Hickory (A ball). In 2014, Mazara crushed all expectations after a fairly slow start. Mazara started to absolutely crush A ball pitching in the second half of 2014, earning himself a jump past advanced A ball straight to Frisco, where he continued to make pitchers miserable. In his first 97 plate appearances in Frisco, managed a 157 wRC+. Nomar continued to hit in AA as a 20 year old and was promoted late in the season to AAA where he just did what he always does, ripped pitchers 5-10 years older than him.



Scouting Report

I've been able to see Mazara quite a bit, but I am guessing my scouting report is going to read a little differently than others. This is a guy who could fill many different projections so it's difficult to say what kind of major leaguer he will be.



Hit: 45/60

Nomar Mazara has a pretty wild stance and timing bat twitch, but his swing is majestic. He has a large front leg timing step, his hands stay even with his shoulders until he unloads, and then boy does he unload. His legs are insanely strong and he rotates his hips in a smooth and powerful motion. He is great at keeping his hands back and in place so he is able to make contact with the ball on all parts of the plate and he can foul off pitches he's fooled on. The swing itself is nothing short of glorious. He stays upright and sees the ball deep into the strike zone and rips it. The bat comes through at a fairly even plane so he is able to make solid line drive contact to all fields. He hits RHPs and LHPs alike although there is a slight split. His strikeout rate sat around 19% last season, but it's declined every year and as his pitch recognition continues to improve I think he could eventually sit around an 18-19% K rate. He is patient and waits for his pitch and takes walks when he's not given anything. His BB rate should stay around 10% as a young player and improve as he ages. At Nomar's peak, I think it is possible that he could maintain a .305-.310 average and a .360-.380 OBP. He might struggle more with K's more than I anticipate, or he may struggle with contact more than I envision, but he has a special swing and a demeanor that pitchers should fear. This following video taken by Scott Lucas has one of my favorite Mazara swings at 0.20 where Mazara gets junk from a lefty and he pulls and rips a line drive to right field.

Power: 40/55

In my opinion, Mazara's power is the most difficult thing to project. He has the raw potential to hit 35 home runs, but his swing is not tailored to do that. The ball jumps off his bat, but the swing only has a very slight upward plane so he does not create an angle for home runs as much as you would expect. He's strong as an ox so he does end up hitting a lot of line drive home runs and he will have a few that jump off the bat the right way and go a sizable distance, but he won't regularly hit the majestic, cry because of the beauty, homeruns that Gallo will. Mazara could tool his swing a bit differently and I'm guessing the power does develop more. He only had an ISO around .150 last season, but I think that was more of an anomaly than a trend. His ISO will (probably) sit around .210 which could give him some .500+ slugging seasons. I would wager a season of .300/.370/.510 is definitely in the realm of possibility for Mazara. Here's another video of Mazara, thanks to Scott Lucas, where he hits a smash to center that really showcases that swing.

Speed: 40/40



Mazara's pretty damn slow. He's got wheels like Mitch Moreland and that should tell you enough. He has great instincts on the base-paths and he's a smart runner. He knows when he can and when he cannot, which really helps his overall base-running ability to where he's probably not a liability. In the field it plays like you would expect, he lacks range so he's most likely limited to right field.

Glove: 45/50

Thankfully, Mr. Mazara's routes are improving every single season. He gets good jumps and makes good reads. He takes efficient routes to the ball and he's getting better at making full speed decisions. He's not going to be Jason Heyward out there, but he's not going to be Adam Dunn either.

Arm: 60/70

This is one of the fun tools; he must have gotten his arm from the same place Gallo got his. He can pitch off the mound at around 93, and can almost get there with a crow-hop. He's going to gun down a lot of runners who risk it, and then runners will just stop because it's not worth the pain. Mazara does have a bit of an issue with accuracy, but as he ages the arm mechanics should get more consistent and the error numbers will drop a bit. In 14 games at RF in AAA last season he threw out 3 runners, which evens out to something like 33 outfield assists over the course of 162 games. Obviously that probably won't happen, but it helps you understand the arm.



Makeup:

Mazara is a coach's dream. He's smart, he listens to coaches, he plays well with others, he has a cool and calm intensity that he takes on the field, and absolutely nothing can shake him up. He's a good clubhouse guy and he even is great on camera. As a bonus third video from Jeff Wilson, here is Mazara being interviewed about the futures game in 2015.

Final Thoughts

Mazara is tough to really project as a future player. He's a fairly low risk prospect because of his hit tool, demeanor, and patience at the plate, but he could be anything in between a starter on a second division team, or an all-star. Juan Gonzales is the first name to pop up in comparisons and it makes a bit of sense, but Mazara has a much better approach, better defense in RF, and quite a bit less power. The comparison I like for a higher end possibility is a young Bobby Abreu with less speed. Mazara has a solid approach, although he probably won't walk quite as much as Abreu. He has the ability to hit for a high average with his swing tailored to line drives and lower end strike-out rate for a powerful guy. Between the years 1998-2001, Abreu averaged 41 doubles, 25 HRs, 100 BBs, 130 Ks, and slashed .313/.416./.537. I don't see Mazara quite getting to that BB%, but the average and HRs are within grasp. A sample peak Mazara season could be; 28-33 HRs, 75-80 BBs, 100 Ks, and a slash of .310/.385/.520. That would be good for around a 140 wRC+ and it's very possible he can near league average defense. This is a pretty high bar to set for Mazara and he could never get close to that, but one of the great things about Mazara is that his floor seems to be pretty high. A lower end of the spectrum possibility might be something like a .260/.340/.420, which is still a valuable player. This 20 year old kid is something special already, and he could be something really special. Only time will tell, but we should not have to wait long as it is fairly likely that Mazara will make his MLB debut this year at 21 years old. This wraps up the big 3 hitting prospects for the Rangers and if that doesn't get you excited about 2016, then nothing will.