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Terrorism in the U.S. Since 9/11

Schneier on Security ^ | 26 Aug 2011 | Bruce Schneier

Posted on by Palter

John Mueller and his students analyze the 33 cases of attempted [EDITED TO ADD: Islamic extremist] terrorism in the U.S. since 9/11. So few of them are actually real, and so many of them were created or otherwise facilitated by law enforcement.

The death toll of all these is fourteen: thirteen at Ft. Hood and one in Little Rock. I think it's fair to add to this the 2002 incident at Los Angeles Airport where a lone gunman killed two people at the El Al ticket counter, so that's sixteen deaths in the U.S. to terrorism in the past ten years.

Given the credible estimate that we've spent $1 trillion on anti-terrorism security (this does not include our many foreign wars), that's $62.5 billion per life saved. Is there any other risk that we are even remotely as crazy about?

Note that everyone who died was shot with a gun. No Islamic extremist has been able to successfully detonate a bomb in the U.S. in the past ten years, not even a Molotov cocktail. (In the U.K. there has only been one successful terrorist bombing in the last ten years; the 2005 London Underground attacks.) And almost all of the 33 incidents (34 if you add LAX) have been lone actors, with no ties to al Qaeda.

I remember the government fear mongering after 9/11. How there were hundreds of sleeper cells in the U.S. How terrorism would become the new normal unless we implemented all sorts of Draconian security measures. You'd think that -- if this were even remotely true -- we would have seen more attempted terrorism in the U.S. over the past decade.

And I think arguments like "the government has secretly stopped lots of plots" don't hold any water. Just look at the list, and remember how the Bush administration would hype even the most tenuous terrorist incident. Stoking fear was the policy. If the government stopped any other plots, they would have made as much of a big deal of them as they did of these 33 incidents.

EDITED TO ADD (8/26): According to the State Department's recent report, fifteen American private citizens died in terrorist attacks in 2010: thirteen in Afghanistan and one each in Iraq and Uganda. Worldwide, 13,186 people died from terrorism in 2010. These numbers pale even in comparison to things that aren't very risky.

Here's data on incidents from 1970 to 2004. And here's Nate Silver with data showing that the 1970s and 1980s were more dangerous with respect to airplane terrorism than the 2000s.

Also, look at Table 3 on page 16. The risk of dying in the U.S. from terrorism is substantially less than the risk of drowning in your bathtub, the risk of a home appliance killing you, or the risk of dying in an accident caused by a deer. Remember that more people die every month in automobile crashes than died in 9/11.

EDITED TO ADD (8/26): Looking over the incidents again, some of them would make pretty good movie plots. The point of my "movie-plot threat" phrase is not that terrorist attacks are never like that, but that concentrating defensive resources against them is pointless because 1) there are too many of them and 2) it is too easy for the terrorists to change tactics or targets.



TOPICS:

Government

War on Terror

KEYWORDS:

editorial

islamicterrorism

policestate

terrorism

wot





To: Palter

Bite me, Bruce Schneier.



by 2 posted onby barstoolblues (Notes from the Hobbitt hole. By Hezbollah Hobbitt.)

To: Palter

“The risk of dying in the U.S. from terrorism is substantially less than the risk of drowning in your bathtub, the risk of a home appliance killing you, or the risk of dying in an accident caused by a deer” Good point.



To: trumandogz

“The risk of dying in the U.S. from terrorism is substantially less than the risk of drowning in your bathtub, the risk of a home appliance killing you, or the risk of dying in an accident caused by a deer Good point.” Not really a good point. This is the fallacy of comparing incomparable units. It is a statistical trick that makes one danger seem insignificant when compared to another, unrelated danger. While bath tubs and a terror attack are similar in that they cause death, one is an accident and the other is an act of will by an agent intent on murder and world wide war. Home accidental deaths cannot be compared to acts of terrorism because the two units are different. One is an apple and the other is an orange. To say that more people are killed by appliances than by terrorists is irrelevant to the main question. The main question is: is terrorism a serious threat to society? It would be like someone saying on Dec. 8, 1941: “Look, I’m sorry that 2,800 of our sailors were killed yesterday by the Japanese surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, but you know, more people died of the flu last year in the US. In fact, the risk of being killed by a Japanese attack is far less than dying by choking on food. We shouldn’t be too concern about this. Stop worrying.”



To: Palter

Terrorism isn’t a threat to US? Oh, yes it is. Check out my blog: War News Flash: http://warnewsflash.blogspot.com/



To: garjog

When it comes to treats. I would say that illegals kill and harm more Americans than AQ. That's a fact. Yet, there is no WOI, War on Illegals, nor is the border militarized. So, on the grand scheme of things. No terrorism is minor compared to actual threats America faces.



To: Palter

"terrorism is minor compared to actual threats America faces." The only reason you can say that is because of guys like this. "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." -- George Orwell.



To: garjog

I've lost many a friend over the past 10 years. I don't need a reminder. Having soldiers in Iraq or Afghanistan is without merit if your gonna leave a open border. Once again, you have a higher chance of being raped, robbed, or killed by an illegal than a terrorist ruining your life.



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