After Saturday evening’s barrier draw, Gai Waterhouse has her best chance yet to win her first Melbourne Cup. Waterhouse has run second with Nothin’ Leica Dane, Te Akau Nick and last year, with Fiorente who will line up in this year’s race as the $7.00. To be ridden by two-time winning Melbourne Cup jockey Damien Oliver, he has drawn perfectly in gate five. Combined with exemplary form over the past month, he ticks many of the boxes required to be successful. He’ll have stiff competition from a strong overseas contingent plus, a remarkable six representatives from the Team Williams operations who will be looking for their third Cup in seven years.

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Melbourne Cup Form Guide

1. DUNADEN – J Spencer (1) 58.5kgs

He won this race in 2011, defeating Red Cadeaux by the smallest possible margin and when the son of Nicobar returned to Australia the following year and claimed the Caulfield Cup in brilliant fashion, he was installed the 6/1 favourite to make it back-to-back Melbourne Cups. He settled a long way back in last year’s editions and ran fourteenth (beaten 10 lengths) behind Green Moon. He has only had the one start since running second to Novellist in the G1 De Saint Cloud (2400m) in June and that was a second to last in the G2 Prix Foy (2400m) seven weeks ago. Not the ideal performance leading into the Cup and he will carry top weight of 58.5kgs.

Odds: $41.00

2. GREEN MOON – P Brebble (10) 57.5kgs

Last year’s Melbourne Cup winner who, after a seemingly disappointing effort in last year’s W. S. Cox Plate, his final hit-out before running in the Cup, started at the lucrative odds of 20/1. This year he has followed a similar path to the Cup and whilst his performance again in last week’s Cox Plate was plain, his starts prior have not been as good as last year’s efforts. Drew well last year (5) and had only 54.5kgs to carry compared to this year’s 57.5kgs and gate ten. On his recent form, it would be hard to select him on top but that said he’s a quality performer that has been set for this race specifically and can’t dismiss him as a chance. Only four horses in the race’s 151 year history have been able to win successive Melbourne Cups.

Odds: $34.00

3. RED CADEAUX – G Mosse (23) 56.5kgs

The Ed Dunlop trained galloper ran second to Dunaden by a nose in 2011’s Cup and eighth in last year’s edition. The now 8yo has had seven starts this year in five countries with the most recent being a fourth (beaten 11 lengths) in the Irish St. Leger (2816m) behind Voleuse De Coeurs. He has carried over 60kgs at each of his last three starts and won’t know himself here after being allocated 56.5kgs however, not many horses win this race at their third attempt or from the second to widest gate.

Odds: $51.00

4. SEA MOON – S Arnold (7) 56.5kgs

Teams Williams purchased this son of Beat Hollow from overseas specifically for this race and, as a 3/1 chance in his first Australian start (G1 Makybe Diva Stakes, 1600m) had big expectations placed upon him. Blundering badly when the gates opened did his chances no good and he finished twelfth of fourteen before, at his next start, getting too far back in a slowly run Underwood Stakes (G1, 1800m) and finished second to last behind It’s A Dundeel. It wasn’t until his third Australian start, when he stepped beyond 2000m for the first time and took on a weaker class of race, that he showed significant improvement and although first across the Listed Bart Cummings (2500m), a subsequent protest saw him relegated to second. This meant that to ensure his place in this field, he had to back up a week later in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m) where, from an on pace position, he was able to outstay Oasis Bloom and Simenon. Strong win last start under 59kgs but preparation hasn’t been ideal and this obviously much tougher.

Odds: $16.00

5. BROWN PANTHER – R Kingscote (6)

A lightly raced 7yo by Shirocco who has won seven of his seventeen starts including two of his three starts this year. After winning the Listed Castle Stakes (2422m) and G2 Goodwood Cup (3219m) earlier this year, both in impressive fashion, more was expected of him at his most recent start in the Listed Greene King (2012m) when fifth of nine, beaten 4.9 lengths. That run was last September and was his first start in eight weeks. It was also at a distance short of his best so would confidently expect a better effort from him here. He’s been aimed at this race for over 12 month now and will be ready to produce.

Odds: $21.00

6. FIORENTE – D Oliver (5)

Former Italian galloper who made his Australian debut in last year’s Melbourne Cup and produced a fantastic effort to run second to Green Moon. Under the guidance of Gai Waterhouse, the 6yo has had five starts since last year’s Cup with each one of those starts being of a high standard. After winning the G2 Dato’tan Chin Nam (1600m) three starts back, the son of Monsun closed very well from the tail of the field to run a half length fourth behind Happy Trails in the G1 Turnbull Stakes. At his next and most recent start, he drew the widest gate in last week’s W S Cox Plate and spent the first five furlongs of the 2040m working forward to sit outside leader and eventual winner, Shamus Award. It was a good effort to hang on for third given the run and that the winner was in receipt of 9.5kgs. He is racing very well at present and has the gate and jockey that makes him the leading contender.

Odds: $7.00

7. FORETELLER – C Newitt (15) 55kgs

Honest galloper who claimed his second Group 1 victory four starts back when finishing strongly from the tail of the field to beat Puissance De Lune by a nose in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m). His next two runs, the G1 Underwood Stakes and G1 Caulfield Stakes, both ran at a casual pace, were not run to suit his racing pattern and he finished twelfth and second (beaten 4 lengths) behind Atlantic Jewel respectively. He got back during the run again in last week’s Cox Plate but was warming up nicely over the concluding stages, closing well to run fourth, 1 ¼ lengths behind Shamus Award. Hasn’t been beyond 2400m previously however, he is honest and with the right run, could produce a cheeky effort.

Odds: $26.00

8 – DANDINO – R Moore (4) 54.5kgs

He impressively won the Arlington St. Leger (2716m) in America back in August before travelling to Australian and lining up in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m). The Marco Botti trained galloper produced a sensational effort to circle the field around the home turn and finish hard to run second to Fawkner. He drops 2kgs on that run, a race which has traditionally been a very good form reference for the Melbourne Cup and he has also drawn ideally in gate 4. The son of Dansili hasn’t raced over this trip previously but Botti, who trained the not nearly well performed Jakkalberry to run third in last year’s Melbourne Cup, appears to have his charge spot on for Tuesday.

Odds: $12.00

9. ETHIOPIA – R McLeod (14) 54.5kgs

The 5yo’s only win from his twelve starts was the ATC Derby in April of last year. Since that win the Pat Carey trained runner has had eight starts with the pick of them being his forth in the W. S. Cox Plate which unfortunately, was over twelve months ago now. His three starts back from a twenty week spell are not encouraging for the Cup, which last year he failed to beat a runner home in. He ran last in the G1 Underwood and at his most recent start, thirteenth (beaten 9.7 lengths) in the Caulfield Cup (2400m). He is a big price and just not travelling well enough at present to win the Cup.

Odds: $81.00

10. FAWKNER – N Hall (8) 54.5kgs

The son of Reset has been in brilliant form this spring campaign. He was producing his best work late, three starts back, when fifth (beaten 2.3 lengths) behind Streama in the G1 WFA George Main Stakes (1600m). He then found himself in front a long way from home in the G1 WFA Turnbull Stakes (2000m) but fought on gamely, only being caught on the line by Happy Trails. There were some queries about his ability to see out a strong 2400m when he lined up in the G1 Caulfield Cup a fortnight ago however, he addressed those concerns in emphatic fashion courtesy of a great ride by Nick Hall and recorded a 1 ¼ length win. His path to this race has taken the traditional route and his form is faultless. Gets to two miles for the first time but a new distance proved no obstacle for him last start.

Odds: $16.00

11. MOURAYAN – B Avdulla (19) 54.5kgs

He heads into this race with only two runs under his belt since returning from a nineteen week spell. Not was much expected from him in the first of those runs over the unsuitable 1600m however he did well to finish 3.6 lengths in seventh position behind Foreteller and Puissance De Lune. He had a month off and was floated to Sydney for the G1 Metropolitan Handicap where, under the steadier of 58kgs, he stuck on well from on on-pace position running eighth and only three lengths behind stable-mate Seville. He dropped back in distance at his next start; Saturday’s G1 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) but being third up, still expected to see a little more than what he produced in finishing second to last and eight lengths from the winner.

Odds: $101.00

12. SEVILLE – J Bowman (9) 54.5kgs

The 6yo returned from an injury en-forced layoff in the G1 Memsie Stakes and, as a 66/1 chance, there was no surprise to see him run last in that race. He was well off the speed at his next two starts, the G2 Dato’tan Chin Nam (1600m) and G3 Naturalism Stakes (2000m) and it wasn’t until he got to beyond 2000m for this time since racing in Australia and, the handicap conditions of the G1 The Metropolitan that the son of Galileo produced his best. He was afforded a lovely run behind the leader in the Metropolitan and was able to secure a half-length victory over Julienas His next and most recent start was a return to WFA conditions and a shorter trip when he lined up in last week’s Cox Plate and finished seventh (beaten 5.6 lengths) – a similar run to that of which stable-mate Green Moon produced last year before winning the Cup. Better suited back the two miles under handicap conditions and is from a meticulous stable.

Odds: $17.00

13. SUPER COOL – C Brown (13) 54.5kgs

Trainer and Jockey combined to win this race with Shocking back in 2009. This 4yo, after a sensational 3yo season which saw him claim the G1 Australian Cup (2000m), had high expectations placed upon him when he commenced this campaign in August, five starts ago. His first up run in the G1 Memsie Stakes (1400m) was an eye-catching performance and he followed that effort with another good performance when fourth (beaten ½ length) in the G2 Dato’tan Chin Nam behind Fiorente. In his latest three starts however, the son of Fastnet Rock has been just a few lengths of the pace as indicated by his 3 ¼ lengths fifth in the W. S. Cox Plate just over a week ago, his most recent start. He is racing as though a longer trip will suit however he has only past 2000m once before, in last year’s VRC Derby (2500m) against 3yos when second. Could put a few in front of him on his recent form.

Odds: $34.00

14. MASKED MARVEL – M Rodd (2) 54kgs

The last of Team Williams’ runners and yet another imported from overseas who has had four runs since commencing his Australian campaign in September. The pick of those four runs came two starts back when he ran a head second to Honorius in the G3 Craven Plate (2000m) as 15/8 favourite. He was then outclassed at his next and most recent start, the W. S. Cox Plate a fortnight ago when finishing second to last and over eleven lengths from the winner. Each of the starts he has contested this preparation has been under the WFA scale and he’ll appreciate the handicap conditions of this race however, still think he’ll still have too much improvement to make.

Odds: $34.00

15. MOUNT ATHOS – C Williams (22) 54kgs

This Luca Cumani trained runner produced an outstanding effort in this race last year, first up off an eleven week spell, when running fifth (beaten 3 ¼ lengths) behind Green Moon. The son of Montjeu has only had five starts since that run with the most recent being ten weeks ago in the Listed March Stakes (2816m) at Goodwood. He carried a whopping 62.5kgs to run a head second to Harris Tweed. He won’t know himself here with 54kgs and after last year’s race Cumani, who has ran second in the Cup twice with Bauer and Purple Moon, will have had a return trip firmly in his sights. Good money had come for him in the latter stages of the week however, after drawing gate 22, the money has eased and he’ll need to be going better than last year to overcome that obstacle.

Odds: $10.00

16. ROYAL EMPIRE – K McEvoy (11) 54kgs

The Melbourne Cup is a race that, despite numerous attempts, has eluded the powerful Godolphin operation. This year, their hopes lay with this 5yo by Teofilo who, at his most recent start a month ago, ran 2 ½ lengths second to Secret Number in the G3 Cumberland Lodge (2414m). That continued his consistent form in the second half of this year, he is lightly raced and still on the improve however, he hasn’t ventured past 2400m previously and this will be the toughest field and race, that he has faced in his thirteen start career.

Odds: $21.00

17. VOLEUSE DE COUERS – J McDonald (22) 54kgs

Mike Moroney, trainer of 2000 winner Brew, looks after this 5yo mare who last start was an impressive winner of the G1 Irish St. Leger (2816m) when carrying 61kgs. The Irish St. Leger has been the race used by many overseas raiders as their final hit-out before the Cup, including Vintage Crop. The St. Leger win was just reward for her good performance in both starts prior, the G3 Curragh Cup (2816m) and G3 St. Leger Trial (2816m) She is unbeaten in two starts over this trip, albeit in much weaker grade however, as indicated by her last start victory, she is a lightly raced and improving type. The draw will make it difficult but on her recent form the $17.00 is good value.

Odds: $18.00

18. HAWKSPUR – J Cassidy (18)

The Chris Waller trained runner had held a spot at the top of the Cup betting market for many weeks but, after running seventh as 13/4 favourite in the Caulfield Cup (2400m), the 4yo is now out to a quote of $12.00. As he has done so here, he has drawn poorly at his last two starts and raced without any luck in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) when ½ length fifth behind Fawkner and then got too far back but closed well in the Caulfield Cup. Nothing wrong with his last two starts and if Cassidy – who has won two Melbourne Cups – can find a spot, he’s certainly capable of figuring in the finish.

Odds: $14.00

19. SIMENON – R Hughes (12) 53.5kgs

After solid form in the UK which included a head second to Ahzeemah in the G2 Lonsdale Cup (3299m) and a neck second in the G1 Ascot Gold Cup (4023m) to Estimate, he attracted plenty of interest when making his Australian debut in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m) three weeks ago. In a race that was dominated by the leading pair, the 7yo by Marju was doing his best work and closed well when third, beaten less than a length, to Sea Moon. That was his first run in seven weeks and will have served him well for here. He’ll have no problem with the distance, drawn well enough to get a spot in the run and for mine, is over the odds at $21.00.

Odds: $18.00

20. IBICENCO – L Nolen (17) 53kgs

Got too far back in a race that was dictated by those up on the speed when twelfth (beaten 4.9 lengths) behind Seville. Took no chances at his next start and took up a forward spot in the G3 Geelong Cup (2400m) and dug deep late to claim Verdant by a neck on the line. The Geelong Cup has been a good lead-up race in recent years for the Cup however, this year’s edition didn’t have a great deal of depth. The rise in class combined with the wide gate he has drawn, will make this tough.

Odds: $51.00

21. VEREMA – C Lemaire (3) 53kgs

This 5yo mare by Barathea who will be the first representative of His Highness The Aga Khan in the Melbourne Cup, comes to Australia in winning form. A strong win (in a field of five) in the G2 Prix De Nieuil (2800m) followed by a half length win in the in the G2 Prix Kergorlay (3000m), will have her prepped well for here. In her corner also is trainer Alain De Royer-Dupre trainer of Amercain, the winner of 2010’s Melbourne Cup. An inside gate appears to be a bonus and it saw her price firm from $13 into $11 however, the biggest field she has competed in has been eleven and she’ll need to be able to maintain her spot as they head down the straight the first time.

Odds: $15.00

22. DEAR DEMI – C Munce (16)

Tough 4yo mare that lines up for start number 29 and her fourth in the last month. Each of those runs has been very good and include a third in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) where from last in the run, she snuck home along the fence and on Saturday, producing a similar run to secure second in the WFA G1 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m). That’s solid form from a Melbourne Cup point of view and she drops to the luxury weight of 51kgs and, be piloted by Munce who rode Jezabeel to victory in 1998’s Cup. Can’t knock her form and she’s nothing if not honest but still can’t find room for her in the top selections.

Odds: $19.00

23. TRES BLUE – T Berry (20) 51kgs

Gai Waterhouse went close to winning her first Melbourne Cup last year with a horse (Fiorente) making his Australian and this year, will hope to go one better with this son of Anabaa Blue. The 4yo brings with him winning form including a ¾ length win in the G3 Prix De Reux (2500m) and a head victory in the G2 Gp Deauville (2500m) at his most recent start, ten weeks ago. Those two victories took his winning tally to four from ten starts and he is still improving. He has drifted from $19.00 from $21.00 after the barrier draw.

Odds: $21.00

24. RUSCELLO – C Schofield (24) 50kgs

He earned his spot in this year’s cup with victory in Saturday’s G3 Lexus Stakes (2500m) at Flemington. That was only his second start in Australia since arriving from the UK in September and he’ll derive further improvement again. Hasn’t been over two miles previously but the Lexus win was strong but the class in that particular race, could be a few lengths off that required to be winning a Melbourne Cup. Drawn the outside gate.

Odds: $67.00

RACE OVERVIEW

So important that riders are able to find a spot down the straight the first time and get their mounts to settle as early as possible. Some drawn wide will have to commit from the jump and go forward and make their own luck, or drop to the tail and be ridden for some. From gate nine, Oliver on Seville will have many more opportunities available to him. Seville was good in the Metropolitan and went as well as he could have been in the Cox Plate, a race Team Williams have used as a final hit-out with success in the past. Drawn well and Bowman strike rate for the stable is a good one. Brown Panther was heading this way last year but connections decided to given him another 12 months and their patience could be rewarded here. His last start was with this race in mind and his previous two starts were strong wins and should be used as the best guide. Dandino could not have been any more impressive in his Caulfield Cup and gate four will give Ryan Moore the opportunity to have him placed to advantage throughout. Finally, can’t leave Fiorente out. His form is first rate and has the jockey, gate and experience required to figure prominently.

FIORENTE DANDINO SEVILLE BROWN PANTHER

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