Marco Rubio was stuck on repeat Saturday night, and it threatens his momentum in the New Hampshire primary.

The POLITICO Caucus – a panel of operatives, strategists and activists in the early-nominating states – overwhelmingly judged Rubio the loser of the final debate before the first-in-the-nation primary.

More than two-thirds of GOP insiders surveyed after the ABC News debate said Rubio lost, and more than 70 percent said the Florida senator’s performance will hurt his chances of toppling front-runner Donald Trump or even outpacing his fellow competitors for second place on Tuesday.


The problems for Rubio began when New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie challenged Rubio early on, and Rubio replied repeatedly with a canned response about President Barack Obama’s agenda to change the country.

New Hampshire GOP insiders called Rubio “cringeworthy,” “badly programmed and robotic,” “so rehearsed he comes off as inauthentic,” and “exposed at last for the wind-up doll he is.”

“He botched the exchange with Christie, sounded like a broken record, and was sweating so much that he looked like he needed Charlie Crist's fan blowing on him,” added another New Hampshire Republican, who, like all respondents, completed the survey anonymously.

“Every answer in previous debates involved Orwellian oration about ‘Islamic jihadists,’” added a South Carolina Republican. “Tonight it was ‘Barack Obama,’ but Christie didn't let him get away with skirting the substantive answers – Rubio reinforced the negative by repeating his memorized diversion to Obama two or three more times.”

It wasn’t just Rubio’s repeat effect that drew criticism from insiders – it was a seemingly missed opportunity to punch back at Christie in a substantive way.

“While he had cogent answers on many issues, he allowed Christie to get to him. Bad move,” said another New Hampshire Republican. “If only Rubio had been confident of his knowledge of policy issues, he could have won. Pointing out Christie’s positions on gun control, Common Core or Bridge-gate would have scored more highly than combating on the specific issue.”

One South Carolina Republican said Rubio’s poor performance could threaten his ability to lock down the establishment lane moving to the Feb. 20 first-in-the-South primary if he falls short of expectations in New Hampshire on Tuesday.

“Just like Trump losing Iowa where he was expected to win, Rubio placing fourth will show he is vulnerable when under heavy fire and maybe he's not the best candidate in the field,” the South Carolina GOP insider said. “It will raise doubts which will impact the donor class where Rubio has struggled relative to Cruz and Bush. Rubio needed a strong New Hampshire showing to secure more donors for the long-term primary campaign, and tonight he hurt his chances to finance through the entire primary calendar.”

While the majority of GOP insiders picked Rubio as Saturday night’s loser, the responses to which of the seven candidates won the debate were more muddled.

Some gave the win to Christie for landing a few body blows against Rubio early in the debate.

“Christie pounds Rubio for reciting his memorized answers,” one New Hampshire Republican said, “and then Rubio answers by reciting the same answer three times! Christie demolished him!”

Others said Jeb Bush, who was the only candidate on stage to challenge Trump, was the victor. “He put Trump on his heels,” a New Hampshire Republican said.

Trump fought back, at one point shushing the former Florida governor to reestablish command of the stage. And some insiders insisted – given Trump’s lead in New Hampshire polling and Rubio’s struggles – that the real-estate tycoon emerged largely unscathed.

“Trump played front-runner and stayed above [the] fray,” one South Carolina Republican said.

“Trump wins by default because I don't think anyone surged in a way that posed a significant threat to his lead,” added another.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who is banking on New Hampshire to propel a candidacy lagging everywhere else, was credited by some insiders with a more positive presentation and for being “the adult on the stage,” in the words of one New Hampshire GOP insider.

And some Republican insiders picked Rubio as the winner, though those that did conceded the night got off to a rough start.

“He wobbled early but eventually passed the test when the kitchen sink was thrown at him,” said one South Carolina Republican.

“He took some early hits, stood tall and dominated the last two-thirds of the debate,” added another.

Others contended that some strong answers later in the debate offset Rubio’s rocky start.

“While people will [be] all over the Christie exchange, Rubio's answers later on foreign policy and abortion were pitch-perfect for the GOP base,” said a South Carolina Republican. “On the whole this debate probably did not change much for him.”

Another South Carolina Republican suggested the timing of the debate – it was the Republicans’ first of two consecutive network-TV debates on a Saturday night – would mitigate the damage for Rubio, even though it was perhaps the last chance for voters in New Hampshire to see him.

“Saturday night debates [are] not as much [of a] factor as Thursday night debates,” the Republican said.

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this post-debate survey:

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Garth Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, William O’Brien, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Karen Testerman, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams, Ethan Zorfas

South Carolina: Andrew Collins, Antjuan Seawright, Barry Wynn, Bob McAlister, Boyd Brown, Brady Quirk-Garvan, Bruce Haynes, Catherine Templeton, Chad Connelly, Chip Felkel, Cindy Costa, Clay Middleton, David Wilkins, Dick Harpootlian, Donna Hicks, Drea Byars, Ed McMullen, Elizabeth Colbert-Busch, Ellen Weaver, Erin McKee, Gary R. Smith, Glenn McCall, Inez Tenenbaum, Isaiah Nelson, Jaime R. Harrison, James Smith, Jason Perkey, Jay W. Ragley, Jim Hodges, Jimmy Williams, Joe Erwin, Joel Sawyer, John Brisini, Kevin Bishop, Kim Wellman, Laurin Manning, Le Frye, Luke Byars, Matt Moore, Mikee Johnson, Morgan Allison, Phil Noble, Scott Farmer, Tony Denny, Trey Walker, Tyler Jones, Walter Whetsell, Warren Tompkins, Will Folks

Nevada: Adam Khan, Andres Ramirez, Andrew Diss, Barbara Buckley, Bob Cavazos, Brendan Summers, Chip Evans, Chuck Muth, Dan Hart, Daniel Stewart, Ed Williams, Emmy Ruiz, Erven T. Nelson, Greg Bailor, Heidi Wixom, Jack St. Martin, James Smack, Jay Gertsema, Jeremy Hughes, Jim DeGraffenreid, Jon Ralston, Kristen Orthman, Laura Martin, Linda Cavazos, Lindsey Jydstrup, Mac Abrams, Mari St. Martin, Marla Turner, Megan Jones, Michael McDonald, Michelle White, Mike Slanker, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Oscar Goodman, Pat Hickey, Paul Smith, Pete Ernaut, Peter Koltak, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Roberta Lange, Ryan Erwin, Ryan Hamilton, Sam Lieberman, Scott Scheid, Yvanna Cancela, Zach Hudson

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Sara Craig, Jerry Crawford, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Richard S. Rogers, Nick Ryan, Matt Schultz, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.

