What do we know about the 2012 Atlanta Falcons? Firstly, they’re 8-0. That’s a huge start and, coupled with a not-so-dominant NFC South, has put us a long way to making the playoffs for the 4th time in 5 years. Secondly, we don’t get much media love. Whilst this is exactly exclusive to the 2012 Falcons, it’s been particularly frustrating to me this year above most others. There have been many media knocks on the Falcons this year: they’re not winning comfortably, their ground game is patchy, they’re boring to watch, repeated comeback victories are lucky and don’t count etc. etc.



I’m sure you all agree, however, that the loudest and most frustrating opinion is that the Falcons 8-0 start is not impressive as we have a soft schedule. However, after hearing enough over the weekend, I had a look at the numbers, and will attempt to demonstrate why the Falcons strength of schedule in no way affects the legitimacy of their 8-0 start.

What follows is a numbers overload, so either turn away now or soldier through knowing you have been warned. For those who can’t deal with it, there is a handy summary table at the end: scroll away, I won’t hold it against you.

To begin with, I picked who I feel are the top 8 teams in the NFL. There is a strong argument to be made that the Broncos are in the top 8, but I feel the Patriots shade them (pretty much solely based on the Patriots 31-21 victory against them earlier in the season). The teams I will look at, in order of record, are:

· Falcons (8-0)

· Bears (7-1)

· Texans (7-1)

· Ravens (6-2)

· 49ers (6-2)

· Giants (6-3)

· Packers (6-3)

· Patriots (5-3)

Having a look at the teams schedules individually (this is where the number crunching fun really begins):

Falcons (8-0)

Opponent Opponent’s Record Opponent’s record (pct) KC 1-7 .125 DEN 5-3 .625 SD 4-4 .500 CAR 2-6 .250 WAS 3-6 .333 OAK 3-5 .375 PHI 3-5 .375 DAL 3-5 .375

The Falcons 2012 opponents halfway through the year combined for a total record of 24-41, which is a win percentage of .369. They faced 1 team above .500, defeated 1 team above .500 and played one team on exactly .500

Bears (7-1)

Opponent Opponent’s Record Opponent’s record (pct) IND 5-3 .625 GB (LOSS) 6-3 .666 STL 3-5 .375 DAL 3-5 .375 JAC 1-7 .125 DET 4-4 .500 CAR 2-6 .250 TEN 3-6 .333

Total opponents’ record: 27-39 (.409)

Total record of opponents in victories: 21-36 (.368)

The Bears faced 2 teams above .500, defeated 1 team above .500 and faced 1 team with exactly .500. Their 2012 schedule has only faced teams with a combined 3 more wins than the Falcons, and their victories have come against teams with a win percentage 0.001 lower than the Falcons’ opponents.

Texans (7-1)

Opponent Opponent’s Record Opponent’s record (pct) MIA 4-4 .500 JAC 1-7 .125 DEN 5-3 .625 TEN 3-6 .333 NYJ 3-5 .375 GB (LOSS) 6-3 .666 BAL 6-2 .750 BUF 3-5 .375

Total opponents’ record: 31-35 (.469)

Total record of opponents in victories: 25-32 (.438)

The Texans have faced 3 teams above .500, won against two of them and also defeated one team exactly on .500. Their schedule has been fairly hard, facing two of the top 8 teams and having (in my eyes) the 3rd hardest schedule of the top 8 sides.

Ravens (6-2)

Opponent Opponent’s Record Opponent’s record (pct) CIN 3-5 .375 PHI (LOSS) 3-5 .375 NE 5-3 .625 CLE 2-7 .222 KC 1-7 .125 DAL 3-5 .375 HOU (LOSS) 7-1 .875 CLE 2-7 .222

Total opponents’ record: 26-40 (.393)

Total record of opponents in victories: 16-34 (.320)

The Ravens have faced 2 teams above .500, defeated one and have not faced anyone on .500. With the softest schedule of anyone on this list, the Baltimore Ravens total opponents record is dragged up greatly by the 7-1 Texans, and their victories have come against teams with a combined 19-39 record, for a paltry .320 win percentage. This is comfortably lower than the Falcons .369. Their combined opponents have only won 2 more games, and their victories have come against opponents with a combined 5 less wins than the Falcons’.

49ers (6-2)

Opponent Opponent’s Record Opponent’s record (pct) GB 6-3 .666 DET 4-4 .500 MIN (LOSS) 5-4 .555 NYJ 3-5 .375 BUF 3-5 .375 NYG (LOSS) 6-3 .666 SEA 5-4 .555 ARZ 4-5 .444

Total opponents’ record: 36-33 (.521)

Total record of opponents in victories: 25-26 (.490)

The league’s other 6-2 team have had by far the most difficult schedule, facing 4 teams above .500, winning 2 of them and also defeating the .500 Detroit Lions. They have also played 2 teams on this list, making their 6-2 record very impressive.

Giants (6-3)

Opponent Opponent’s Record Opponent’s record (pct) DAL (LOSS) 3-5 .375 TB 4-4 .500 CAR 2-6 .250 PHI (LOSS) 3-5 .375 CLE 2-7 .222 SF 6-2 .750 DAL 3-5 .375 PIT (LOSS) 5-3 .625

Total opponents’ record: 28-37 (.430)

Total record of opponents in victories: 17-24 (.414)

The Giants have faced 2 teams above .500, won once and also defeated 1 team exactly on .500. Their total schedule has only dished up 4 more wins than the Falcons’ opponents. Not an easy schedule by any stretch, but the Giants have not exactly faced the league’s elite either.

Packers (6-3)

Opponent Opponent’s Record Opponent’s record (pct) SF (LOSS) 6-2 .750 CHI 7-1 .875 SEA (LOSS) 5-4 .555 NO 3-5 .375 IND (LOSS) 5-3 .625 HOU 7-1 .875 STL 3-5 .375 JAC 1-7 .125 ARZ 4-5 .444

Total opponents’ record: 41-33 (.554)

Total record of opponents in victories: 25-24 (.510)

The Packers have faced a massive 5 teams above .500 in their 9 games so far, beating 2 of them. Whilst not facing anyone exactly on .500, the Packers have clearly had a schedule to rival San Francisco’s: facing 3 teams on this list. Their last 3 weeks have softened the draw somewhat, but the Packers are a contender for hardest schedule too. They are the only team on this list who's wins have come against teams who are combined over .500

Patriots (5-3)

Opponent Opponent’s Record Opponent’s record (pct) TEN 3-6 .333 ARZ (LOSS) 4-5 .444 BAL (LOSS) 6-2 .750 BUF 3-5 .375 DEN 5-3 .625 SEA (LOSS) 5-4 .555 NYJ 3-5 .375 STL 3-5 .375

Total opponents’ record: 32-35 (.477)

Total record of opponents in victories: 17-24 (.414)

The Patriots have played 3 teams above .500, beaten 1 of the and have not played anyone sitting on .500. Their opponents are all within a small range of victories, as they have not played any dominant teams (outside of the top 8 Ravens) or any awful sides.

Summary

Opponent’s record Opponent’s record in victories # of teams above .500 played Wins against teams above .500 Win pct against teams above .500 Falcons 24-41 (.369) 24-41 (.369) 1 1 1.000 Bears 27-39 (.409) 21-36 (.368) 2 1 .500 Texans 31-35 (.469) 25-32 (.438) 3 2 .666 Ravens 26-40 (.393) 16-34 (.320) 2 1 .500 49ers 36-33 (.521) 25-26 (.490) 4 2 .500 Giants 28-37 (.430) 17-24 (.414) 2 1 .500 Packers 41-33 (.554) 25-24 (.510) 5 2 .400 Patriots 32-35 (.477) 17-24 (.414) 3 1 .333

Ranked by opponent’s record in victories:

1. Packers (.510)

2. 49ers (.490)

3. Texans (.438)

4. Giants (.414)

4. Patriots (.414)

6. Falcons (.369)

7. Bears (.368)

8. Ravens (.320)

Ranked by opponents in victories combined wins:

1. 49ers (25)

1. Texans (25)

1. Packers (25)

4. Falcons (24)

5. Bears (21)

6. Ravens (19)

7. Giants (17)

7. Patriots (17)

Ranked by wins against teams above .500:

1. Texans (2)

1. 49ers (2)

1. Packers (2)

4. Falcons (1)

4. Bears (1)

4. Giants (1)

4. Patriots (1)

4. Ravens (1)

Conclusion

What did we learn from this brain assaulting exercise? Well, firstly, only one of the top 8 teams have beaten teams with a combined record above .500. Secondly, only 2 of the top 8 sides have even played teams with combined records above .500. Thirdly, the Falcons have won just as many games against teams above .500 as four of the remaining 7 top teams. Lastly, the 49ers, Texans and Packers are all better than their record, and clearly in the top 5 in the league, whilst the Ravens victories have come against teams with truly awful records. The 49ers and Packers are the clear outlier here, and are solidly entrenched in my top 3 as a result of these findings (I had San Fran at #3 and Green Bay at #6 before doing this).

Next time somebody tells you that the Falcons have had a free pass to 8-0, tell them that the Ravens, Bears, Patriots and Giants have all had similarly easy paths, and to take it up with them instead. 8-0 doesn’t just happen, ‘easy’ schedule or not. Thanks for reading!