After playing fantasy football religiously for 12 years and counting I have learned more and more about the importance of late-round value picks and sleepers. It is often the guys like Jordan Howard in 2016 or Doug Baldwin in 2015 that put your team in the best position to compete for fantasy football glory. This year you are in luck because I have looked through my crystal ball and am going to share with you my top three sleepers at the wide receiver position.

Before we get to that, though, let’s go over some ground rules. Since the word “sleepers” can be a pretty broad term in the fantasy community I have decided to use certain criteria. To qualify as a sleeper on this list, the player must have an ADP (Average Draft Position) of WR36 or higher. The complete list of Fantasy Pros Consensus WR ADP.

All right, let’s get down to business. Here are my top three WR sleepers of 2017.

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Tyrell Williams (LAC): ADP WR44

After Keenan Allen went down in Week 1 of last year, Williams stepped up and took over as the clear top receiving target for quarterback Philip Rivers. The undrafted free agent finished the season with top 20 fantasy production at the WR position as he managed to top 1,000 receiving yards with seven touchdowns. One of his more impressive stats was his 6.78 YAC (yards after catch) average, which was good enough for fifth in the NFL. These stats all sound great, right? So why does the WR19 from last season have an ADP of WR44?

Well, for starters the Chargers are getting back their No. 1 receiver, Allen, which will undoubtedly take some targets away from Williams. Secondly, the Chargers used their first-round selection in the 2017 NFL Draft to select Mike Williams out of Clemson University. Let’s take a look at how that affected Tyrell’s ADP using Fantasy Football Draft Calculator’s ADP data:

May 1 st ADP = 13.07

ADP = 13.07 June 1 st ADP = 14.04

ADP = 14.04 July 1 st ADP = 11.10

ADP = 11.10 August 1 st ADP = 9.08

ADP = 9.08 Current ADP = 9.04

As you can see, Williams had an ADP of the 13th round, as people became aware of the addition of Mike Williams and digested the info as to where he would fit in, Tyrell’s ADP dropped into the 14th round. However, on June 6th Adam Schefter reported that Mike Williams could miss a significant amount of time with a back injury. Since then, you can see how Williams’ stock has risen up into the ninth round. Is that still good value for a player of his caliber? Let’s have some fun and dissect this a little bit. I’ve highlighted some WRs being taken around the same vicinity as Williams.

Player ADP (Fantasy Pros) 2016 FP 2016 REC 2016 YDs 2016 TDs 2016 YAC AVG Tyrell Williams 107 216.9 69 1059 7 6.78 Adam Thielen 106 195.2 69 967 5 4.59 Mike Wallace 114 202.8 72 1017 4 5.88 Kenny Britt 109 196.2 68 1002 5 4.49 Randall Cobb 93 148.3 60 610 4 5.92

Williams had the most TDs, Yards, and fantasy points.

Williams had the highest YAC Average, meaning he has the most big-play potential once the ball is in his hands.

Remember when I mentioned earlier that Williams finished as a top 20 WR in fantasy points last season? Here are a few other guys who were in a similar range and how they stack up heading into drafts this season:

Player ADP (Fantasy Pros) 2016 FP 2016 REC 2016 YDs 2016 TDs 2016 YAC AVG Tyrell Williams 107 216.9 69 1059 7 6.78 Golden Tate 46 223.1 91 1077 4 6.98 Tyreek Hill 51 217 61 593 6 4.72 Terrelle Pryor 38 213.4 77 1007 4 2.45 Emmanuel Sanders 58 212.6 79 1032 5 3.28

These comparable players from just a year ago are being drafted as high as five rounds before Williams! I know that things change year-to-year and you can’t rely solely on last season’s stats, but this just gives you an idea of the type of value Williams can bring you if he can play up to a similar level as last year. Yes, a healthy Allen takes away targets, but on the flip side it also takes away coverage. Defenses will have their top corner on Allen. Furthermore, with Rivers under center, the Chargers have traditionally been a team that loves to rely on the passing attack. If that continues to be the case, there will be plenty of targets to support two top 25 fantasy WRs. That is, of course, if Allen can even stay healthy.

By selecting Williams in the ninth round you are getting a true bargain, and a nice sleeper heading into the 2017 season.

Zay Jones (BUF): ADP WR62

I’m sitting here trying to get over the news that just broke about Sammy Watkins being dealt to the Los Angeles Rams. As a guy who had a considerable amount of fantasy stock in Watkins, I am not a happy camper, to say the least. Whatever, he was probably just going to get hurt anyway. Okay, back on topic. Since that deal went down I’ve seen a lot of tweets about Anquan Boldin being the main beneficiary. If FantasyPros had a “Come on, man!” segment I would feature those very tweets. No guys, a 36-year-old wide receiver who just signed a few weeks ago is not going to emerge as the top receiving target in Buffalo. Jordan Matthews is certainly a candidate after just being acquired almost simultaneously to the Watkins deal. However, Matthews is best suited as a slot receiver, where he has been solid but not a bonafide WR1. The main beneficiary and top WR to target in the Buffalo offense is none other than the rookie out of East Carolina, Jones. The 2016 Biletnikoff Award Finalist is coming off a monstrous year in college recording 158 receptions for 1,746 yards, and eight touchdowns. He has a nice combo of size and speed standing at 6’2″ and running a 4.45 40-yard dash at the NFL combine.

The offseason losses of Marqise Goodwin (49ers), Robert Woods (Rams), and most recently Sammy Watkins (Rams) opens the door for Jones to seize the opportunity and establish himself as their present and future No. 1 wide receiver. It also frees up 194 targets and 108 receptions from a year ago. With a current ADP of WR62 and an ADP of somewhere between Round 12 and 13, you are getting a heck of a steal and the last WR1 left unless, of course, you include the mess that is the New York Jets.

Cameron Meredith (CHI): ADP WR40

Meredith is coming off a strong season despite playing with a plethora of underwhelming quarterbacks such as: Matt Barkley, Brian Hoyer, Jay Cutler, and David Fales. In fact, you could make a case that their top passer last season was Cameron Meredith himself, completing his only pass attempt for a touchdown! The Bears have since upgraded their QB situation with the free agent acquisition of Mike Glennon and second-overall selection of Mitchell Trubisky in the 2017 NFL Draft. I never thought I would see the day where Glennon and upgrade would be used in the same sentence. I guess there’s a first time for everything. Anyway, on top of all that, the Bears let their best receiver, Alshon Jeffery, leave via free agency, which opens the door for Meredith to build on his 66 receptions and 96 targets from a year ago. Even though he was virtually an afterthought through the first four weeks of the season, the third-year pro quietly became a significant fantasy asset the rest of the way. He finished 17th in fantasy points at the wide receiver position from Week 5 through 17. Most impressively, Meredith closed out the 2016 campaign on an absolute tear compiling 81.3 fantasy points through the final four games of the season. That put him in elite territory and ahead of the likes of, well, every single player in the NFL except for Jordy Nelson. Let’s do some math here. You take a top 20 WR from last season (Week 5-17), get rid of his only real competition (Jeffery), give him an upgrade at QB (Glennon/Trubisky). Factor in his current ADP of WR40 with an overall ADP of Round 8 and you realize that the math doesn’t add up. Meredith is in a prime position to improve on his fantasy numbers from last season and I will go ahead and say he is a solid fantasy WR2 at a WR4 price.

Honorable Mentions

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Mike Dente is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @1ststopfantasy.