One of the problems associated with measuring individual performance in hockey is that players are never out of the ice by themselves. They are always with a number of other teammates, and most stats that are indicative of “driving play” are applied to all players on the ice at once.

One way of separating a player’s contributions from those of his linemates is the use of WOWYs, or With or Without You statistics. The simple purpose of these stats are to tell you how well a player does while on the ice with certain teammates compared to when they are not on the ice together.

WOWYs have been around for a while, so there’s nothing groundbreaking here. However, I thought it would be interesting to see how member of the Canucks’ four lines have fared while together as well as while they are separated. Plus, I just saw a new way of displaying this data and I wanted to share it with you.

Recently, I stumbled across this little graphic from Dom Luszczyszyn of The Hockey News:

here’s pittsburgh, boston, and san jose also. basic theme is “team’s best three players do well together.” pic.twitter.com/eCBwMsiaUF — dom luszczyszyn (@omgitsdomi) February 13, 2016

Dom himself got the idea from Benjamin Morris who was using these Venn diagrams to visualize basketball stats.

As a hockey nerd, the only thing that I like more than hockey stats are graphical representations of hockey stats, so when I see data visualized in a new manner, I have an overwhelming urge to test it out with data of my own.

I’ll start with a caveat: the sample sizes used in the article can be quite small at times. That’s okay though, it just means that our results will be more about fun and curiosity, and less about predictive value. Whereas Dom was using data from big time players over a three year period, I’m using all Canucks forwards (right down to the fourth line) over a single season.

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With most teams, this might be a bit silly, considering how much variance there is amongst line combinations in games alone, let alone over a season. Luckily for, our favourite team is coached by Willie Desjardins, who keeps players together for agonizingly long periods of time, with change coming slowly – if it comes at all.

Let’s check out each of the four forward lines and see where the data leads us.

Line 1: The Sedin Line

The Sedins have traditionally been strong possession players, and even in their twilight years, they’re still managing some of the best possession stats on the team. As you can see in their overlapped areas (excluding Jannik Hansen), they are controlling just over 50 per cent of shot attempts at even strength.

Their numbers when separated from one another are a different story, with each twin hovering around an abysmal 40 per cent. This isn’t really all that surprising for a couple reasons. One is that when the twins aren’t playing with each, they’re probably playing with someone who isn’t very good (that’s just the reality when you’re playing on a team that isn’t very good).

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Another is that the major chunk of this time is “scrap time”, small bits and pieces of ice time here and there between when one linemate gets on or off the ice and when the other one follows suit. A common reason for not getting off at the same time is that one is getting hemmed in the defensive zone and getting pummeled by shot attempts. This could also happen in the other direction, but if the puck is in the offensive zone, the remaining linemate is more likely to head to the bench for a change. Therefore, without you time made up mostly of scrap time is often considerably worse than with you time.

There is also another possibility: the twins lose their powers and slowly waste away whenever they are separated. This is my personal favourite explanation, and also why the suggestion of separating the twins makes me angry.

Adding Jannik Hansen to the mix has worked nicely this season. As you can in the centre area, the three of them together have a slightly higher shot attempt ratio at even strength that just Daniel and Henrik alone. This also indicates that having Hansen as the third wheel has been, on average, better than other right wingers.

Hansen with just one twin tells a couple of different stories. First, the combination of Hansen and Henrik, but not Daniel, has been shelled in terms of possession. Daniel hasn’t missed any games this season, so once again, this is largely made up of scrap time.

Hansen with Daniel, but not Henrik, is a little bit of a different tale because Henrik has missed a chunk of time, so a fair bit of that ice time is actual deployment. With a Corsi-For percentage of about 47 per cent, this combination has fared decently. Not as good as with Henrik, but that should be obvious anyways, as you’re clearly forced to use another centre who isn’t going to be as good as one of the greatest Canucks of all time. Jared McCann has been in this role a number of times, while Brandon Sutter has filled in as well.

Line 2: The Horvat Line

This is a fun line to examine because it’s been getting so much attention recently. Part of this attention is due to the fact that Bo Horvat and Sven Baertschi have been so hot lately while Radim Vrbata has been pretty dreadful despite the fact that they’ve all been sharing the ice together. It’s really been something to behold.

However, we are talking about production here, so the tables have turned a little bit. You see, despite his lack of finish and general apparent disinterest in hockey, Radim Vrbata has been a pretty solid possession player. He helps himself out here by shooting tons of pucks at the net, just for the hell of it.

It’s notable that of the 314 minutes that Vrbata has spent away from both Horvat and Baertschi, about 170 minutes have been spent with at least one Sedin, in which time his Corsi-For percentage is well over 50 per cent. In 149 minutes away from Horvat, Baertschi, and the Sedins, Vrbata’s shot attempt ratio is down to 47.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, Bo Horvat has been a pretty awful possession player. Some of this is probably because of how often he starts in the defensive zone – 41.3 per cent of his shifts begin in the defensive (according to stats.hockeyanalysis.com), more than any other player on the Canucks. His 44.6 per cent Corsi-For is superior only to Brandon Prust, Luca Sbisa, and Alex Biega.

Sven Baertschi hasn’t been so hot in possession rating either, but if you place Horvat and Baertschi together, they’re making some sweet music, relatively speaking. A decent chunk of this Horvat plus Baertschi but nor Vrbata time has been with Jake Virtanen, who is the team’s strongest possession player, believe it or not.

One of the more interesting areas on this chart is the overlap between Horvat and Vrbata that excludes Baertschi, in which the Canucks controlled a measly 37.8 per cent of shot attempts at even strength. Worse, the time on ice is up over 100 minutes, meaning this has gone beyond the realm of chance and lends credence to what many of our eyes have seen: that Horvat and Vrbata are just not good together. Adding Baertschi seems to turn them into a respectable line, but removing Vrbata is even better.

Line 3: The Vey Line

Once we get this far down the line, labeling them with numbers is a bit nonsensical. Third line or fourth line, it’s tricky to tell, it’s really more of an amorphous blob that we deem the bottom six. In any case, it’s not without its surprises.

Of the bottom six, this line has been the most sturdy. Since Emerson Etem arrived 14 games ago, this trio has played together for a little over 131 minutes, in which they controlled 46.3 per cent of shot attempts.

The most interesting thing about this graphic is how well Linden Vey has done away from the other two. This is largely due to a small, but very successful sample with Derek Dorsett of all people, as well as some positive contributions from Chris Higgins. Small sample sizes make for strange statistics.

Emerson Etem appears to be the weakest link in this grouping. He has the lowest Coris-For percentage of the three of them in general, and his overlap with Vey while Burrows is excluded is pretty horrendous. Tough to read too much into numbers when the samples are not very big, but that’s what happens when two thirds of a line has spent a good chunk of the season either in the minors or in the press box.

Line 4: Whatever’s Left

As with most fourth lines, the Canucks’ is usually cobbled together with a variety of leftover players and guys who rotate in and out of the press box.

On the left of this double diagram, you’ll see the fourthiest of fourth lines: Dorsett, Prust, and Cracknell, pretty much the least amount of skill the 2015-16 Canucks could put on the ice at one time. They’ve done so for 180 minutes of play time at even strength and naturally they didn’t fair very well possession wise.

One interesting thing to note here is that if you replace Adam Cracknell with Jared McCann, the new trio has a Corsi-For percentage of 54.6 per cent in a sample of 56 minutes, outscoring their opponents 2-0. Of course, a large amount of that was before Prust’s injury, when he could still skate properly. This also accounts for the segment of Dorsett and Prust that excludes Cracknell in the left diagram.

The other diagram shows what would probably have been more of a third line, or maybe even a second line back before Horvat and Baertschi got hot. Though they only played together for 63 minutes, this is one of the best trios in terms of possession. Their totals are largely driven by none other than Jake Virtanen, the Canucks’ current Corsi king. The other two are no slouches either though, as even without Virtanen, Burrows and Sutter linked up for some strong numbers, to the tune of a 56 per cent share of shot attempts in a 52 minute sample.

What We’ve Learned

I did say right off the hop that there wouldn’t be a ton of predictive value from this, given the size of samples. That being said, there are some trends that deserve some further investigation.

First off, Jake Virtanen makes pretty much every line better. Altogether, he has a Corsi-For percentage of 53 per cent, best on the team. Of all forwards who have spent at at least 10 minutes with Virtanen and 10 minutes away from him, only Chris Higgins and Jared McCann had lower Corsi-For percentages when on the ice with Virtanen compared to apart from him. Every other forward improved or maintained their possession while sharing the ice with him, including the Sedins, some by huge margins.

Secondly, don’t ever separate Bo Horvat from Sven Baertschi, and if you absolutely must do so, keep him away from Radim Vrbata. Baertschi seems to insulate the negative effect Horvat and Vrbata have on each other, but they’d probably be better off playing with (surprise) Jake Virtanen instead.

You’ve heard this a ton of places already, but as long as Vrbata is still on the team, he’s best suited to playing with the twins. When those three are together, Vancouver controls 54 per cent of shot attempts, and scores at a healthy rate as well. The problem is, the Sedins don’t seem to want to be separated from Jannik Hansen. There was a theory proposed recently that Hansen is a necessity on that line right now to help the Sedins cycle game while Henrik is still injured, and there’s probably something to that. From an edition of the Provies last week:

The Sedins took possession of the puck in the offensive zone with 6:03 left in the second. Hansen and Daniel did most of the work, crushing it along the boards.

They absorbed contact. Moved the puck up and down the wall. It would go that way for 1:16. Like the old days. Except it wasn’t. Henrik touched the puck three times on that shift. Each for just a brief moment.

Watching it, and watching him lately, it sure suggests Henrik can’t work the boards like he does when healthy. It’s why Hansen is so critical to the line right now.

If Henrik can’t cycle like normal, the only guy who can fill that void, on this team anyway, is Hansen.

If that’s the case, it’s no wonder that Vrbata has found himself in the bottom six.

Lastly, as I’ve always said, separating the Sedins is a terrible idea. Don’t do it.

I hope you’ve enjoyed this fun and exciting foray into using Venn diagrams to visualize WOWYs – I know I did. Dom has already expanded this idea to show other statistics besides Corsi, and I could follow up and do the same. Unfortunately it will take a lot of work since there’s no program to create these (yet, anyway), and I had to make them all manually. Totally worth it though.

All WOWY stats in this article were gather from puckalytics.com and are current to the morning of February 15th, 2016.





