Bolivia is in the midst of a brutal upheaval. Following weeks of protests, armed forces have compelled longtime, left-leaning President Evo Morales to step down after reports of “manipulations” in last October’s vote and Morales’s subsequent call for new elections. Morales has sought asylum in Mexico, as right-wing and in some cases neo-fascist elements round up members of his party and burn the wiphala, the flag of the Aymara and Quechuan peoples.

Amidst all this, some on the left began to speculate on a disturbing subplot. Days before resigning, Morales had pulled out of a lithium mining deal with the German company ACI Systems Alemania, or ACISA. Lithium is an essential ingredient of the batteries that power electric vehicles, smart phones, e-bikes, solar panels and more. ACISA is a supplier for Tesla, stock of which rose sharply after news of Morales’s ouster broke. Not unreasonably—given the history of the region—some journalists and politicians began asking: Had this all just been yet another plot by Western Powers to seize a valuable commodity for multinational corporations?

The short answer is no. There are several factors that have contributed to recent protests: Morales’s opposition never planned to accept the results of these most recent elections and anger at the president had been brewing from across the political spectrum, with the far-right now playing the most decisive role. While it’s certainly possible that the CIA yet again involved itself in Latin American politics—we may not find out definitively for years—multinationals’ desire to capture Bolivia’s lithium market likely was not what got Morales booted out of office. Still, those same companies may well profit off of the new right-wing government. And as world leaders look to transition rapidly off of fossil fuels, the politics surrounding the minerals integral to a decarbonized world will only intensify. Properly designed, a Green New Deal could transform the fraught dynamics that govern lithium and other valuable commodities while heading off climate catastrophe. If business as usual continues, neither seems likely.

Over half of the world’s lithium reserves are held in South America in the Andes’ otherworldly, high-altitude salt flats formed from lakes of lithium-rich brine. Mining companies remove that and transport it to massive evaporation ponds to sit in the sun for months or even years. As the water evaporates it leaves behind magnesium, calcium, sodium, potassium and—the main prize—lithium, a white powder sometimes called “white gold.” While this predominant type of lithium extraction requires big up-front investments of capital and expertise, the whole process is less labor intensive than digging up coal or oil. Yet it requires massive amounts of water in some of the driest places on earth, with single companies using as much as 1,700 litres per second. This drain has disrupted ecosystems around the lakes and cut off freshwater access for indigenous communities in the so-called lithium triangle countries of Bolivia, Argentina, and Chile. Indigenous communities and others around the salt flats have led hunger strikes and blockades to protest not only these issues, but a transfer of wealth out of their own backyards to foreign corporations.

When he was first elected in 2006, Morales led a charge against such extractive dynamics, canceling contracts that inordinately benefited foreign capital, redistributing land, nationalizing the natural gas industry and seizing mines. All this sparked intense backlash from foreign companies, which forced several concessions and as much as $1.9 billion out of Morales’s administration through lawsuits. Intending to both raise capital for lithium development and prevent unequal extraction, Morales then proposed a 70-year contract with ACISA in which state-owned firms would retain a controlling stake in new projects on Salar de Uyuni, an area 13.5 times the size of New York City. Instead of simply taking lithium out of the Andes to build products elsewhere—the industry norm—this contract also proposed that Bolivian workers build an electric vehicle battery facility in Bolivia. Companies seeking easier returns had already looked elsewhere, where governments and workers demanded less of a cut. Still, those living near the salt flats weren’t satisfied. The Potosí Civic Committee—which fought Morales over the deal—demanded an increase in royalties from 3 to 11 percent, and more local control over the mining. When Morales pulled out of the agreement with ACISA earlier this month, prior to being ousted, these demands were cited as a major factor.