Are the Bears the Rams . . . or the Jaguars?

After a rejuvenating 2018 in which they made a quantum leap from 5-11 in 2017 to 12-4 and the NFC North title, the Bears are one of the most intriguing teams in the NFL heading into this season. Behind coach Matt Nagy, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, quarterback Mitch Trubisky and star linebacker Khalil Mack, they followed the Rams’ template almost too closely last year — making the jump from also-ran to legitimate Super Bowl contender but losing a winnable home playoff game as a favorite against the Eagles — just as the Rams lost at home to the Falcons in their playoff opener after a breakout 2017 season.

That disappointment fueled a skepticism about just how real the Bears’ renaissance might be. Instead of the Rams, the Bears might be the Jaguars, who slumped to 5-11 last season after leaping from 3-13 to 10-6 and a spot in the AFC Championship Game in 2017.

No doubt, the Bears will face many of the challenges that doomed the Jaguars last season. They will play a tougher schedule as a defending division champion. Their developing, young quarterback will have to take a step forward instead of a step backward. Their defense will be challenged to repeat a 36-takeaway, six-touchdown season that made them elite. And they won’t be sneaking up on anybody this year.

Additionally, the Bears will be hard-pressed to be as healthy this season as they were last year. After losing Fangio, the architect of their fabulous defense, it remains to be seen just how seamless the transition will be under the respected Chuck Pagano. The Bears are in arguably the toughest division in football, with the Vikings and Packers expecting to return to playoff caliber and the Lions a candidate for big improvement in Matt Patricia’s second season.

They have to meet the challenge of high expectations in the franchise’s 100th season — from their rabid fandom to the media to the daunting, hovering shadow of the ’85 Bears — and under a spotlight that is far brighter and far hotter in Chicago than it is in Jacksonville. And the Bears still don’t have a kicker.

While those challenges are real, the Bears’ arrow is more likely headed toward the Rams’ side of the spectrum than the Jaguars’. Their defense might not get 36 takeaways, but it still figures to be potent with Mack and second-year linebacker Roquan Smith having a full offseason/preseason and with the front seven intact, with every player still in his 20s (Akiem Hicks turns 30 on Nov. 16).

Trubisky and the offense, under Nagy, are more likely to take at least a small step forward than a Jaguars-sized step backward (from ninth in points in 2017 to 31st last year). The biggest loss figures to be an upgrade: rookie David Montgomery and Mike Davis over ill-fitting Jordan Howard.

The Bears at least enter the 2019 season with a newfound respect. They’re fifth to seventh in most reputable NFL power rankings (a year ago they were 24th to 28th). Their odds of winning the Super Bowl are up from 100-1 to 14-1 — tied for fifth best on the board behind the Chiefs (6-1), Patriots (6-1), Rams (10-1) and Saints (10-1). The Bears’ win “total” in Vegas is up from 6½ to 9/9½.

So will the Bears be the Rams or the Jaguars? They could be something in between — a regression to a disappointing 9-7 without a playoff berth or 10-6 with a divisional-round playoff loss, but overall another step in the right direction.

With that in mind, here’s our annual test of Bears fans’ optimism/pessimism for the upcoming season. Rate these categories, giving yourself 10 points for an optimistic vote, minus-10 for a pessimistic vote and zero for a neutral vote.

THE CATEGORIES

Mitch Trubisky

Optimist: Ready for takeoff in his second year in Nagy’s offense and with a full year of familiarity with his key receivers. At 25, Trubisky will grow as a quarterback, playmaker and leader in a maturing offense, keep defenses off balance with his running ability, and mature into an efficient, if not prolific, elite quarterback in the NFL.

Pessimist: Too dependent on the offense to carry him, instead of the other way around, Trubisky will have his moments but ultimately will hit a low ceiling as defenses cut off the escape routes that make him a dual threat and force him to make throws he just can’t make. Misses games because of injury. Exposed as a “reps guy” without the instincts to take a team over the top. Ends up in the middle of the pack statistically.

Matt Nagy’s offense

Optimist: With all the pieces in place and Trubisky in charge, the Bears’ offense becomes a Chiefs-like well-oiled machine with the ultimate run/pass ability that keeps defenses on their heels and a diversity that makes anybody a big-play threat. The offense overtakes the defense as the Bears’ callling card.

Pessimist: Too dependent on all 11 players being in sync and a not-ready-for-prime-time quarterback making big plays. The offense stalls as the running game fails to develop, the offensive line regresses and defenses exploit weaknesses that throw off the timing and throw Nagy off his game.

Chuck Pagano’s defense

Optimist: Pagano’s aggressiveness unleashes a torrent of pass-rushing prowess — Mack, Smith, Leonard Floyd, Eddie Jackson, Isaiah Irving, Duke Shelley, et al. — that takes the Fangio defense up a notch and creates havoc that turns everybody a playmaker.

Pessimist: The loss of their spritual Yoda-like leader in Fangio proves problematic as the defense loses its mojo, takeaways dry up, injuries mount, Prince Amukamara and Danny Trevathan age rapidly and the Bears’ defense is thrown out of whack in a chain reaction of regression.

Khalil Mack

Optimist: In his prime at 28, Mack parlays a full offseason/training camp/preseason with the Bears into his best season yet — an attacking machine at peak efficiency, creating a disruption on virtually every snap that wreaks havoc and creates opportunities for teammates.

Pessimist: In his prime at 28, Mack parlays a full offseason/training camp/preseason with the Bears into his best season yet — an attacking machine at peak efficiency, creating a disruption on virtually every snap that wreaks havoc and creates opportunities for teammates.

Kyle Long

Optimist: Inspired by the chance to win a Super Bowl ring like his father and brother, and motivated to prove he’s as good and durable at 30 as he ever was, Long takes advantage of the low mileage of recent years to show off his athleticism, plays all 16 games and is reborn as an elite lineman.

Pessimist: Turns out he’s an old 30 — starts the season healthy and in good spirits but breaks down little by little, gets overwhelmed by opponents he used to dominate and finds himself at a career crossroads entering 2020.

Roquan Smith

Optimist: In a comfort zone after a strong rookie season, Smith takes advantage of a full training camp/preseason and becomes the instinctive, sideline-to-sideline, front-to-back impact player the Bears envisioned — a tackling machine who emerges as a rising star and leader.

Pessimist: Overshadowed by more potent playmakers and veteran leaders, Smith stays in his shell and continues a steady but unspectacular progression as he adjusts to the nuances of Pagano’s defense.

David Montgomery

Optimist: Lives up to the billing of being a perfect fit for Nagy’s offense, playing a Kareem Hunt role as a proficient rusher and effective receiver. Production varies game-to-game, but impact is consistent — always making teammates more effective.

Pessimist: Though he’s a good fit for Nagy’s offense and flashes potential, he’s still a rookie. Can’t beat out Mike Davis, doesn’t get into the rhythm of the offense and can’t match Jordan Howard’s numbers. Wait’ll next year.

Clinton-Dix/Skrine

Optimist: With a strong front seven giving him room to take chances, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is a playmaking upgrade over Adrian Amos. Also benefitting from the best supporting cast he’s ever played with, Buster Skrine is as effective as Bryce Callahan, and more available.

Pessimist: Clinton-Dix’s absence (knee injury) extends into the preseason, he gets a late start, his tackling shortcomings are exposed, and he never clicks with Jackson. Skrine isn’t as productive playing for Nagy as he was playing against him, and the Bears miss Callahan more than they thought they would.

The kicker

Optimist: General manager Ryan Pace’s plan works like a charm, and the pressure-filled process instills a mental toughness in the winner that pays off big. Eddy Piñeiro makes every big kick, leading the NFL in scoring, and Chicago finally exhales.

Pessimist: You don’t want to know. Pace’s grand plan backfires as every candidate is consumed by the suffocating effect of the process and ultimately falters. The Bears desperately turn to a veteran — Matt Bryant? Cairo Santos? — but still end up pining for Robbie Gould. Ugh.

The schedule

Optimist: It turns out the Bears are ready for prime time, literally and figuratively. With a swagger on defense and offense, they respond to the moment in big games and go 14-2 — losing only to the Saints and Eagles — to get the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Pessimist: Too many prime-time/overseas games not only increase the degree of difficulty but keep the Bears out of a week-to-week rhythm. They get everybody’s best game, get off to a 1-3 start, never catch fire and finish 7-9 and out of the playoffs.

Scoring

90-100: Nagy is a football god.

70-80: Buying into the hype.

30-60: Seeing is believing.

20 to minus-20: Bears fan since the ’90s.

Minus-50 to minus-70: Bears fan since the late ’60s.

Minus-80 to minus-100: Packers fan.