Romney says he'll skip the August event, which is a big fundraiser for the state party. Iowa GOP: Ames to pick alternative

The Ames straw poll’s success generally hinges on buy-in from all of the competitors.

But now that Mitt Romney has decided to skip the event, Iowa Republicans are predicting that it might actually help elevate the poll’s importance: Without a dominant candidate on the ballot, they predict Ames will be about crowning the frontrunner alternative.


“You give someone else an opening to get in. You do crack that door for someone else to come barging through to establish him or herself as a chief rival to you,” said Bob Haus, a longtime Republican consultant who famously directed Sen. Phil Gramm’s tie with Bob Dole in the 1995 straw poll in Ames.

“I see it as a big opportunity for the other candidates,” said Steve Grubbs, a former Iowa state party chairman and presidential campaign hand who hasn’t signed on with a candidate this cycle. “In August, there won’t be much going on politically. The focus of the nation, for a week, will be on Iowa. And one or two candidates are going to get millions of dollars of news coverage by winning the straw poll and doing well in the debate.”

The August 13 poll is a big fundraiser for the state party, an expensive test of campaign organizations, and a major national media event — in part because there’s rarely anything else going on for political reporters to write about during that time of year. It’s a campaign season kickoff that helps cement Iowa as a make-or-break state for a presidential campaign.

In 2007, Romney spent more than $1.5 million to to book space, bring in supporters, entertain them and get them to vote for him at the Ames event. The result: a first-place finish in the straw poll and an eventual second-place finish in the caucuses. His performance in the poll, aides believe, raised expectations for his performance in the state — and left a strong second-place finish behind Mike Huckabee seem like a failure, while Huckabee used his showing to power to a caucus win.

That’s exactly what Romney’s decision seems calculated to avoid.

“I think [the decision] makes sense for Gov. Romney. He competed last time, he won, and really the second place finisher, Huckabee, got the bump,” said Tim Albrecht, who was Romney’s Iowa spokesman in 2008 and now works for Republican Gov. Terry Branstad. “Whoever wins the straw poll now will be the de facto frontrunner going into the Iowa caucuses.”

So for all the worries in Iowa about staying relevant in the presidential nominating process, Republicans in the state think they could now have an enormous role in shaping the primary field.

Candidates with a lot to gain or lose at Ames: Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum and Herman Cain, all of whom appeal to the state’s conservative base and who would suffer if they performed poorly in the caucuses.

“This puts a lot of pressure on Pawlenty, because he’s obviously in this thing to win it. He’s where Mitt was four years ago,” said one Republican consultant who previously directed the Iowa Straw Poll. “And for Herman Cain, it’s a great opportunity - he’s had great speeches and done surprising things, and now we can see whether or not it’s real.”

Still, several key players — including eventual nominee John McCain — sat out the 2007 poll entirely.