KOLNO, Poland — This year, Polish harvest festivals are about more than celebrating nature's bounty — they're also a demonstration of how Poland's ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) is pushing to secure absolute dominance in rural areas ahead of Sunday's election.

The festivals are a big deal all across the country: People don traditional costumes, take part in folk dances and seek blessings for their baskets of flowers and freshly baked loaves. It's little surprise that PiS, which prides itself on its traditionalist values, sees these gatherings as electoral gold.

During a late August festival in Kolno, a town nestled in the countryside of northeast Poland, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki tirelessly shook hands, took selfies and tried local delicacies, as the temperature soared over 30 degrees. The event was decked out with balloons emblazoned with the slogan "500+," a reference to PiS's flagship program of financial handouts for families with children.

While PiS has often fared well in the countryside, it hasn't traditionally been the only show in town. In the past, many farmers aligned with the Polish People’s Party (PSL) — a grouping whose rural roots are clear in its unofficial name, the Polish Peasants Party. But PiS is trying to muscle in and secure those conservative agricultural bastions.

Morawiecki explained that he came to Kolno to not only “show gratitude to Polish farmers and this year's crops” but also, most importantly, to meet his voters before the general election on October 13.

“We’re very moved. We took a picture with him — he’s so young, handsome and good” — Pensioner Jadwiga Dąbrowska on Mateusz Morawiecki

“The end of the parliamentary term is similar to harvest festivals. We present you all our ‘crops,’” he said in his speech. He and other party dignitaries have taken part in countless such events.

And the charm offensive seems to be working — at least with Jadwiga Dąbrowska, a pensioner from Rypin, a town 200 kilometers away, who came to Kolno just to see Morawiecki.

“He looks so much better than in the TV, so young,” she said of the 51-year-old prime minister. “We’re very moved. We took a picture with him — he’s so young, handsome and good.”

Handouts and promises

In May's European election, data from exit polls showed that farmers were attracted by PiS's promises of cash handouts for children, pigs and cows. PiS won more than 70 percent of farmers' votes, almost 20 percentage points more than in the general election of 2015.

In the general election this coming weekend, PiS is taking matters a step further. Apart from the party's promises to raise the minimum wage and hand out extra pension money, it is also venturing into highly contentious territory by promising farmers that it can boost their direct EU payments to the levels received by French and German farmers.

The question of equalizing direct payments for farmers — so-called external convergence — has been a burning political issue in Brussels for more than a decade. Those EU countries that joined the EU in 2004, including Poland, receive lower subsidies per hectare because of their lower cost of living.

But it's one thing for PiS to promise voters that it will secure east-west convergence. It's quite another to succeed.

The current plan for the next Common Agriculture Policy foresees further balancing of payments but not equilibrium. The final decision on the issue depends on EU governments, and big Western players don't want to give away too much of their privilege. Even Janusz Wojciechowski, PiS’s nominee to become the next agriculture commissioner, didn’t commit to balance the payments fully at his hearing last week. As a veteran of EU farm policy, he knew full well how difficult full convergence would be.

Peasants on the ropes

PiS think they can get the job done, however. At a press conference on Monday, Morawiecki and PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński pledged that they would set up a plan to achieve the full convergence during the first 100 days of a new government.

Polish farmers might be lured by PiS’s promises but they also have little alternative. PSL, the party with "peasants" in its slogan, has shifted away from its original rural focus.

“[PiS] is effective in getting to this [rural] community — it’s true; the fact that we lost a lot of support there — it’s also true” — Jarosław Kalinowski, PSL MEP

“We have been conscious that we can’t be a party that would be associated with rural issues and agriculture anymore, as it would be the end of us,” Jarosław Kalinowski, current PSL MEP and former minister of agriculture and ex-leader of the party, told POLITICO. “We can’t be seen as a group linked to one profession,” he added, stressing that in the European election two-thirds of the party's support came from urban voters.

“[PiS] is effective in getting to this [rural] community — it’s true; the fact that we lost a lot of support there — it’s also true,” Kalinowski said.

He said that many of those "honest, good-hearted, authentic, trustworthy" communities are bombarded with news from PiS-dominated public TV, with no access to other sources of information. "It’s backed by 500+ cash-handout programs and everyday propaganda. Then it just works, and it’s very effective.”

In 2007-2015, PSL was a part of the ruling coalition formed with the centrist Civic Platform, led for most of the time by Donald Tusk, now president of the European Council. The joint government was often turbulent as PSL felt that its core electorate’s needs were underrepresented.

POLAND NATIONAL PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS

For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

One of the main reasons why the rural community turned its back on PSL was that the PSL-Civic Platform coalition raised the retirement age to 67. In fact, a PSL minister, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, the group’s current leader, carried out the reform.

The government at the time argued the measure was needed because of Poland's demographics — the country has one of the lowest birth rates in the EU — but the policy was very unpopular and PiS's promise to undo the reform helped it win the election in 2015.

This year, in the European election, PSL ran in a bigger coalition with the Civic Platform and other opposition parties. But in this week's general election, the parties decided to field separate lists, in large part because PSL feared Civic Platform's leftward drift would alienate its more conservative voters.

This fall, the party teamed up with Kukiz’15, a group of anti-system populists led by a former rock musician without a clear political agenda.

Kalinowski says it would have been “risky” for PSL to run on its own, as a big chunk of its voters have turned to PiS. According to POLITICO's poll of polls, PiS has 48 percent support, while the PSL and Kukiz'15 coalition have 6 percent — just above the 5 percent threshold needed to get into parliament.

This article is part of POLITICO’s premium policy service: Pro Agriculture and Food. From food safety to animal disease, pesticides and more, our specialised journalists keep you on top of the topics driving the agriculture policy agenda. Email pro@politico.eu for a complimentary trial.