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VICTORIA — From the outset of the Nanaimo byelection, Premier John Horgan was clear about the stakes for himself and his NDP government.

“It is pivotal, it is critical, that we succeed,” he declared at the Jan. 5 opening of the campaign office for NDP candidate Sheila Malcolmson. “We need to win Nanaimo to continue the government. It’s that simple.”

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Maybe not quite that simple.

If the New Democrats were to lose Nanaimo to the B.C. Liberals on Wednesday, it would indeed create a 43-43 tie between the B.C. Liberal and NDP-Green voting blocs in the legislature.

The Horgan government could hang on for a time with support from the Greens and the tie-breaking services of Speaker of the Legislature Darryl Plecas.

But privately, New Democrats concede the standoff would make management of the legislature more onerous and the government agenda more vulnerable to setbacks, delays and even defeat.

Less work would get done in the spring, the fall session might have to be cancelled, and there would probably be an early election call in 2020.