Arsène Wenger may have been rocked by Robin van Persie's decision not to sign a new contract but he is in a stronger position than he was this time 12 months ago

Guardian writers' predicted position: 4th (NB: this is not necessarily David Hytner's prediction, but the average of our writers' tips)

Last season's position: 3rd

Odds to win the league: 12-1

The reference point for Arsenal's pre-season preparations was provided by the official Robin van Persie website on 4 July. The double Footballer of the Year's declaration of independence, though, was not what any Gooner had wanted to hear.

The striker tried to sugarcoat his "update for the fans", which appeared under a burst of the motivational-speak that dots his site and is surely best vocalised in a Dutch ac-shent: Enjoy every moment, it can be your best!

Van Persie talked about the "respect" he had for Arsène Wenger, his team-mates, the fans and their opinions but the bottom line was that he wanted to win trophies and it was clear to him that he and the club "in many aspects disagree on the way Arsenal FC should move forward". He would not be extending his contract, which had one year to run. The Manchester clubs and Juventus are circling.

The sense of deja vu was sickening and, once again, it shone a blinding light on the question of ambition at Arsenal. Is it enough to finish the season in a Champions League place? Why do the club's best players keep wanting to leave? The departures of Cesc Fábregas and Samir Nasri had scarred the build-up to last season and contributed to what Wenger described as "the most disturbed pre-season" he had known. "When I go to hell one day," he said, "it will be less painful for me than for you, because I'm used to suffering."

One month on from the Van Persie statement, though, and there is suddenly a more optimistic mood about the club. The reason is simple. Wenger has agreed a deal for a world-class talent; Santi Cazorla's imminent arrival from Málaga has set the pulses racing. A member of Spain's three-peating tournament dynasty, the 27-year-old joins in his prime and he is ready to become Arsenal's focal point.

Talk to the experts in Spain and they purr over this complete midfielder, who can operate in wide areas but is more likely to play as the No10 in Wenger's 4-2-3-1 formation. He once turned down a move to Real Madrid and he is noted for his comfort on either foot, skill and vision. He will be under intense pressure to inspire at the outset, which is a little unfair but he knows that it comes with the territory. Cazorla could be the signing of the summer.

He will supplement the purchases of the strikers Lukas Podolski and Olivier Giroud, who arrived to rather less fanfare, possibly because they were compared unfavourably to Van Persie. But with Cazorla coming on board as the team's potential superstar, it feels as though Podolski and Giroud have been re-evaluated for the better. There were plenty of times last season when Van Persie carried the team and losing him would be a terrible blow. But those with their glasses half-full wonder whether Arsenal might prove collectively stronger, particularly as Wenger has further signings in mind.

The Real Madrid midfielder Nuri Sahin is one, with the club confident of securing him on a season-long loan with the option to make the transfer permanent next summer. He stands to compete with or replace Alex Song, who has attracted the tentative interest of Barcelona. Song, with his highly individual streak, is not as secure in Wenger's affections as might be imagined.

Van Persie, of course, does remain an Arsenal player at the time of writing, even if the latent hostility of his statement burned bridges and appeared to make his position at the club untenable. Furthermore, unless he were to perform a U-turn of epic proportions and agree to extend his contract, it would be difficult to see the chief executive Ivan Gazidis allowing him to stay and, in the process, risk writing off at least £15m in lost transfer fees.

All the same, it is a tantalising game to wonder how Arsenal might fare with Van Persie with them this season. He is a really sound bloke, who lives for his football and he could be expected to refocus rather than sulk, if his move did not materialise. One further thought: do Wenger's signings, particularly that of Cazorla, not demonstrate the sort of ambition that Van Persie wanted to see?

Wenger was grumpy when put on the spot over Van Persie in press conferences during the club's tour of Asia, and that was not his only irritation. There is little doubt that the manager is no fan of the commercially inspired jaunt. The travel was gruelling; the weather too hot; the facilities not up to his high standards.

He did not take many of his Euro 2012 players, believing that it would have been too much for them but, with the trip to Nigeria cancelled and no fixture having been arranged in its place for this past weekend, Wenger has only one friendly, against FC Köln on Sunday, to provide them with game-time. He has said that Podolski and Giroud will not be fully fit for the season opener at home to Sunderland on 18 August.

Nor will Jack Wilshere, although his condition is much more worrying. The noises from the England midfielder's camp at the end of last season that he was targeting a full pre-season have long since faded. Wilshere, who missed the whole of the previous campaign with a stress fracture to the foot, has still not left the gym and Wenger said that it would be October before he returned.

There is a difference, though, between being available for selection and being able to play at full pelt for 90 minutes. Wenger always eases a player back gradually after serious injury and he can be expected to be even more careful with Wilshere, given the length of the player's absence. It could be December before he is back to normal.

Wenger will find reassurance at the squad's training camp in Germany this week, which leads up to the FC Köln match. There will be no prying eyes, no PR or media commitments, no spotlight; simply hard work, with bibs, balls and cones. It will probably make him feel nostalgic for Bad Waltersdorf, the Alpine retreat in Austria that he favoured before Arsenal's pre-season tours went all far-flung and glitzy.

Wenger will never forget the turmoil of the early season last time out, when the nadir came in the 8-2 defeat at Manchester United and he is desperate for a good start to the new campaign, in which his team's first three away games are at Stoke City, Liverpool and Manchester City.

The manner in which he and the squad recovered from the buffeting that they took in the opening weeks of last season to finish third was admirable and it perhaps did not receive the credit that it deserved. If and when Van Persie leaves, the club appear to be on a firmer footing to cope.

The club's seven-year trophy drought will ratchet up the pressure still further and it would be lovely for Wenger to think that he could have better luck with injuries. He said that he could have written a book about last summer alone. With Arsenal, it is wise to buy ink by the barrel-load.