by Aaron Schatz

For the first time since Week 4, a new team is on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. Denver's close loss to New England drops the Broncos down a spot after eight weeks at No. 1, and Seattle takes over the top position. The Denver defense improved significantly with the return of Von Miller in Week 7, but the offense has really fallen off from those early weeks of the season when they looked like one of the best offenses of all time, and the special teams have struggled as well. Check out this split of Denver stats before and after Miller's return in Week 7:

2013 Denver Broncos by Week Weeks OFF Rk DEF Rk ST Rk Weeks 1-6 47.4% 1 14.3% 29 8.0% 1 Weeks 7-12 12.0% 8 -14.8% 7 -4.6% 23

However, the biggest dramatic move this week isn't Seattle climbing back into the top spot in DVOA. The biggest dramatic move comes in the playoff odds report, specifically in the part that has nothing to do with the playoffs at all. Jacksonville still ranks as one of the worst teams in DVOA history despite their win over Houston this Sunday. However, that win may have cost them the No. 1 overall pick in the 2014 draft. The Jaguars had a 60 percent or higher chance of getting that pick in every playoff odds report since Week 4. Now, the Jaguars aren't even the leading candidate in the Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes. Houston is. We now give Houston a 32.6 percent chance of winning the No. 1 overall pick, with Jacksonville second at 29.4 percent and Atlanta the other major possibility at 22.8 percent. Part of the problem for Jacksonville: They rank 30th in remaining strength of schedule. Their only remaining opponent with a winning record is Indianapolis, which may have nothing to play for by Week 17. That Thursday night game against Houston on December 5 may determine where Teddy Bridgewater is living for the next decade of his life or more, so he better be watching along with his real estate agent.

As an added bonus for you, the readers, I'm happy to report that Rivers McCown and myself will actually be attending that game in person to give you the full Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes Report.

Even if the Colts do have something to play for in Week 17, it may not be the toughest matchup for the Jaguars. With a couple of huge losses, the Colts have dropped all the way down to 17th in the DVOA ratings. Remember a couple of weeks ago, when every team with a winning record was ahead of every team with a losing record? Not anymore. We meant it when we said that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the best 0-8 team in NFL history, and now they're 3-8 and have clinbed all the way up to 16th in DVOA. That means the Bucs are ahead of both the 7-4 Colts and the 6-5 Lions, as well as most of those 5-6 teams competing for the sixth AFC wild card position.

Speaking of which, here's a table of those 5-6 teams along with DVOA, weighted DVOA, remaining schedule, and playoff odds. While the 4-7 teams (particularly Buffalo) do have a shot at the wild card spot, it's going to be tough for one of those squads to pass all six of the 5-6 teams in the standings, so we'll leave them out.

5-6 AFC Playoff Contenders Team DVOA Rk WEI DVOA Rk SCHED Rk WC Odds Playoff Odds PIT 1.7% 15 3.4% 14 -3.3% 18 28.6% 38.0% TEN -7.6% 22 -8.0% 23 -7.6% 27 13.9% 16.7% BAL -7.9% 23 -6.9% 22 4.3% 10 11.9% 15.9% SD -1.3% 19 -1.7% 18 2.3% 12 13.3% 13.3% NYJ -10.7% 25 -11.6% 26 -6.6% 26 11.9% 12.4% MIA -4.0% 21 -3.3% 20 -0.6% 15 9.0% 9.4%

With this table, you can start to see some gaps showing up between total season DVOA and weighted DVOA, which lowers the strength of earlier games. The team with the biggest gap right now is St. Louis, which ranks 14th in total DVOA (2.1%) but 12th in weighted DVOA (6.5%). The Rams' recent success means that all four teams from the NFC West now rank in the top dozen for weighted DVOA. Other teams that have improved in recent weeks include Philadelphia (8.9% DVOA but 12.7% weighted DVOA) and the New York Giants (-12.7% DVOA but -8.8% weighted DVOA).

WORST DVOA EVER WATCH

As noted above, the Denver Broncos are no nowhere near the list of the best teams in DVOA history. They aren't even one of the top dozen offenses anymore. But the Worst DVOA Ever Watch is still going strong. In fact it's going stronger, because we can now track teams threatening to rank as the worst ever in all four categories. By giving up 34 points to the mediocre Kansas City offense, the Chargers moved themselves into position as one of the worst defenses we've ever tracked. Teams from 2013 now rank among the five worst all-time in offense, defense, special teams, and total DVOA. And yes, these tables plus the table above combine to tell us that if Philip Rivers continues to play out of his gourd, we may a playoff team that also has the worst defense in DVOA history.

WORST TOTAL DVOA

THROUGH 11 GAMES x WORST OFFENSIVE DVOA

THROUGH 11 GAMES x WORST DEFENSIVE DVOA

THROUGH 11 GAMES x WORST SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA

THROUGH 11 GAMES Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA x Year Team DVOA 2008 STL -59.2% x 1992 SEA -44.3% x 2004 STL 27.5% x 2010 SD -15.3% 2005 SF -57.6% x 2005 SF -43.7% x 2005 HOU 26.3% x 1995 PHI -12.2% 2009 DET -52.2% x 2010 CAR -43.1% x 2000 SF 24.9% x 2008 MIN -12.0% 2013 JAC -51.6% x 2002 HOU -42.3% x 1992 ATL 24.8% x 2013 WAS -11.6% 2008 DET -49.7% x 2013 JAC -40.3% x 2013 SD 24.7% x 1997 STL -11.3% 1999 CLE -45.4% x 2004 CHI -39.3% x 1999 CLE 23.4% x 1997 PHI -10.9% 2004 SF -44.4% x 2004 MIA -39.2% x 2001 ARI 23.2% x 1992 TB -10.5% 2011 IND -44.2% x 1997 NO -38.9% x 2008 DET 23.2% x 2008 MIA -10.3% 2000 CIN -44.1% x 2008 STL -35.8% x 2002 KC 22.8% x 2009 GB -10.1% 2007 STL -42.7% x 1992 IND -35.5% x 2008 STL 22.3% x 2007 CAR -10.0% 1998 PHI -42.6% x 1991 TB -35.0% x 2000 STL 21.8% x 1996 NYJ -9.8% 1991 IND -42.1% x 2006 OAK -33.9% x 2000 ARI 21.7% x 1998 WAS -9.8%

With this week's tables, I've changed "DVOA through Week X" to "DVOA through X games" to make things simpler when dealing with 1993 (the two bye-week year) and 1989 (the last year without bye weeks).

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During the 2013 season, we'll be partnering with EA Sports to bring special Football Outsiders-branded items to Madden 25 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in standard stats. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats, including DYAR, Defeats, and our game charting coverage stats for cornerbacks. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend, beginning Friday night.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 12 are:

Von Miller, OLB, DEN (Limited Edition): 2 sacks, 2 QB hits, 4 QB hurries, and a forced fumble

(Limited Edition): 2 sacks, 2 QB hits, 4 QB hurries, and a forced fumble David DeCastro, RG, PIT : Allowed no sacks, only one QB hurry

: Allowed no sacks, only one QB hurry Julian Edelman, WR, NE: 9 catches on 11 passes, 110 yards, 2 TD

9 catches on 11 passes, 110 yards, 2 TD Jacoby Jones, WR, BAL (Special Boosted Punt Returner Edition) : 66-yard TD reception, 108 punt return yards on five returns

(Special Boosted Punt Returner Edition) 66-yard TD reception, 108 punt return yards on five returns Philip Wheeler, OLB, MIA: 5 Defeats to prevent third-down conversions (3 PD, 2 tackles)

Unfortunately, a number of players we wanted to do this week either ended up on Madden's "Team of the Week" (William Gay, Philip Rivers) or were players we did earlier in the season (Josh Gordon, Troy Polamalu).

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All 2013 stat pages are now updated or will be updated in the next few minutes, including snap counts, playoff odds, and the FO Premium database. The playoff odds page has added two new "special Super Bowls," the John Fox Reunion Special (CAR-DEN) and the Carson Palmer Reunion Special (ARI-CIN).

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 12 weeks of 2013, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 1 SEA 37.9% 2 37.6% 1 10-1 12.2% 6 -18.2% 1 7.4% 1 2 DEN 32.9% 1 29.9% 2 9-2 30.9% 1 0.3% 16 2.3% 11 3 CAR 26.9% 3 27.0% 3 8-3 10.9% 7 -15.2% 3 0.8% 17 4 NO 24.2% 4 23.3% 4 9-2 20.0% 3 -5.6% 12 -1.4% 19 5 NE 20.1% 6 21.8% 5 8-3 9.5% 9 -4.2% 13 6.4% 2 6 SF 16.6% 8 18.4% 6 7-4 4.1% 15 -9.7% 6 2.7% 10 7 CIN 13.5% 7 14.9% 7 7-4 -5.2% 21 -14.7% 4 4.0% 8 8 CHI 11.7% 5 11.9% 9 6-5 10.8% 8 1.2% 17 2.1% 14 9 KC 9.3% 9 7.1% 11 9-2 -1.5% 17 -5.6% 11 5.2% 6 10 PHI 8.9% 10 12.7% 8 6-5 18.9% 4 8.6% 27 -1.5% 21 11 ARI 6.8% 14 8.8% 10 7-4 -9.0% 25 -18.1% 2 -2.3% 25 12 DAL 4.0% 11 3.4% 13 6-5 6.3% 12 8.4% 25 6.1% 3 13 GB 2.7% 12 1.3% 16 5-5-1 18.2% 5 13.6% 29 -1.9% 23 14 STL 2.1% 20 6.5% 12 5-6 -5.4% 22 -1.5% 15 6.1% 4 15 PIT 1.7% 18 3.4% 14 5-6 4.2% 14 4.6% 22 2.2% 13 16 TB 1.4% 17 2.0% 15 3-8 -4.5% 20 -7.4% 10 -1.4% 20 TEAM TOTAL

DVOA LAST

WEEK WEIGHTED

DVOA RANK W-L OFFENSE

DVOA OFF.

RANK DEFENSE

DVOA DEF.

RANK S.T.

DVOA S.T.

RANK 17 IND 0.1% 13 -3.2% 19 7-4 7.7% 10 8.5% 26 0.8% 16 18 DET -0.9% 15 -1.3% 17 6-5 5.2% 13 3.6% 20 -2.5% 26 19 SD -1.3% 16 -1.7% 18 5-6 23.8% 2 25.1% 32 0.0% 18 20 BUF -3.4% 19 -4.8% 21 4-7 -7.6% 23 -9.0% 7 -4.8% 27 21 MIA -4.0% 21 -3.3% 20 5-6 -3.7% 18 -1.9% 14 -2.2% 24 22 TEN -7.6% 23 -8.0% 23 5-6 1.7% 16 2.4% 18 -6.9% 29 23 BAL -7.9% 22 -6.9% 22 5-6 -20.0% 30 -8.7% 8 3.4% 9 24 ATL -8.6% 25 -11.2% 25 2-9 7.5% 11 14.5% 31 -1.5% 22 25 NYJ -10.7% 24 -11.6% 26 5-6 -25.8% 31 -10.3% 5 4.8% 7 26 NYG -12.7% 27 -8.8% 24 4-7 -12.8% 26 -8.1% 9 -7.9% 31 27 MIN -12.8% 26 -13.1% 27 2-8-1 -7.9% 24 10.5% 28 5.7% 5 28 CLE -20.6% 28 -21.3% 28 4-7 -18.0% 28 3.6% 21 1.0% 15 29 WAS -24.2% 29 -24.0% 29 3-8 -4.0% 19 8.0% 24 -12.1% 32 30 HOU -26.2% 30 -29.2% 30 2-9 -16.0% 27 2.6% 19 -7.6% 30 31 OAK -31.5% 31 -30.5% 31 4-7 -19.0% 29 6.2% 23 -6.3% 28 32 JAC -51.4% 32 -47.2% 32 2-9 -39.9% 32 13.8% 30 2.2% 12

NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.

does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles. ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.

uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week. PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.

lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).