In the House, the GOP departures point to a pair of ominous trends for the party: the loss of several members of its dwindling contingent of minority and women lawmakers, and an exodus from Texas (or what Democrats are already calling a “Texodus”).

The retirement of Representative Will Hurd of Texas stung—and surprised—Republicans the most. As the lone black Republican in the House, the former CIA officer, who represents a swing district along the border, was once seen as a rising star in the party at a time when it seemed Republicans would pursue bipartisan immigration legislation that could appeal to Latino voters. Yet Hurd decided to leave in the weeks after a series of racist tweets by the president appeared to crystallize a 2020 electoral strategy of mobilizing the GOP’s white base.

Read: Will Hurd could be the canary in the coal mine

Republicans were also taken aback by the departures of Representatives Susan Brooks of Indiana and Martha Roby of Alabama—two of just 13 GOP women in the House. Brooks is serving as the party’s House-candidate-recruitment chief, making her decision to leave even more difficult to swallow. (The retiring House Republicans do not include former Representative Tom Marino of Pennsylvania, who left Congress so early in his term—just two weeks after being sworn in—that a special election has already been held to replace him.)

Three of the six retiring Texans are getting out ahead of difficult reelection battles after narrowly winning in 2018. Their exits, along with former Representative Beto O’Rourke’s surprisingly strong Senate bid in 2018, are a reason Democrats are bullish on their chances of picking up even more House seats in Texas, flipping one of its two state legislative chambers, and possibly even turning it blue on the presidential level in 2020.

Data sources: Each district’s presidential-election results are from the Daily Kos. House and Senate election results are from the Associated Press.

Senate Republicans Retiring Outright

Lamar Alexander, Tennessee

2016 presidential election: +26.15 Trump

2014 Senate election: +30.1 Alexander

One of the Senate’s few remaining bipartisan dealmakers, Alexander announced late in 2018 that he would retire after three terms. Over a 40-year career in politics, Alexander had previously served as governor of Tennessee and education secretary under President George H. W. Bush. He ran unsuccessfully for the Republican presidential nomination in 1996. In recent years, Alexander has earned a reputation for working with liberal Democratic Senator Patty Murray of Washington from his perch as chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. Tennessee is deeply Republican: Democrats fell well short in their bid to pick up retiring Republican Senator Bob Corker’s seat in 2018, making it difficult to see how they could create a competitive race in 2020.