Sunday’s elections could decide whether former Soviet nation continues on westward path of last five years or turns back east

The small motorcade arrived along potted mud roads and past single-storey peasant homes and pulled up in the village of Parcani, near Moldova’s northern border with Ukraine. Out stepped the prime minister, Iurie Leanca, greeted by a small brass band, and he entered the village hall to try to pitch his vision for the country’s future.

Behind him as he addressed a crowd of around 200 mostly elderly men and women, a banner read “Forward towards a European future”. Two flags were on display, the Moldovan one and that of the EU.

“My strong belief is that 99% of Moldovans, irrespective of ethnicity or the language they speak, are Europeans. We want to get back to the family,” Leanca told the Guardian shortly after the speech. “Why these elections are so critical is that if our opponents win we will see a reversal of everything we’ve done.”

On Sunday Moldova holds parliamentary elections that could decide whether the former Soviet nation continues on the path it has followed for the last five years, towards the EU, or turns back towards Russia. Polls suggest the vote will be close, with the latest showing the pro-EU parties holding a slim majority. Arcadie Barbarosie, executive director of the Institute for Public Policy, a Chisinau-based thinktank, said: “The percentage of undecideds is very high, so it’s difficult to predict the results.”

Moldova, home to a population of 3.5 million, is often described as the poorest country in Europe. Chisinau, the capital, is filled with faded Soviet-era apartment blocks. Beyond the main cities, paved roads quickly disappear. A quarter of the country’s GDP is estimated to come from remittances of Moldovans working abroad, most of them in Russia.

The official language is Romanian, but many Moldovans’ first language is Russian and, like Ukraine, the country is divided between those who feel they are more European and those who feel closer to Russia. Moldova even has its own breakaway self-governing region in the east, Transnistria, where 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed, the legacy of a 1992 civil war.

Following the last parliamentary elections, in 2009, a coalition of three pro-EU parties formed a working majority in the 101-seat parliament, replacing the Communist party, which had dominated since independence in 1991.

On 27 June this year Moldova, alongside Ukraine and Georgia, signed an association agreement with the EU allowing for greater economic relations and visa-free travel across Europe. Members of the governing coalition saw it as the latest step towards full EU membership, but not all Moldovans were happy. Moscow certainly wasn’t; it would prefer Moldova to become part of its custom union.

Russia has applied strong economic pressure, banning the import of Moldovan wine and then fruit, vegetables and finally meat. Moldova relies on Russia for gas, and in the past Moscow has threatened to cut off supplies unless Chisinau toes the line.

“Yes, the sanctions hurt us,” said Leanca. “We had to look for additional resources to compensate for those who grow apples, prunes, sell meat. The decisions made in Moscow on trade had an immediate impact but in middle and long term they help us to become stronger. What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.”

The bigger problem for Leanca and his coalition is domestic dissatisfaction with the government. A weak economy and little progress in dealing with endemic corruption have left many voters disenchanted and looking for a change. Political infighting among the coalition has not helped.

“This government hasn’t done a good job on social issues,” said Vitalie Dorogan, a 41-year-old priest from Soroca, in the north of Moldova, who was undecided on whom to vote for and whether the EU was the right direction. “I think we should stay in the middle. The middle way is also a decision – to have good relations with both, but not joining either.”

Last year the economy grew by 8.9%, the highest rate since independence, but this year growth is expected to be closer to 2%, despite the fact that exports to the EU have offset lost trade with Russia and its allies.

“People are associating the bad economic situation with the EU integration process,” said Adrian Lupusor, executive director of Expert-Grup, an economic thinktank in Chisinau. “They associate the EU with the current government, which is seen as corrupt.” A recent report by the Institute of Public Policy suggested that if Moldovans were to choose between the EU and Russia’s custom union right now, 39% would vote for the former and 43% the latter.

Sunday will be the first election since Moldova signed the EU association agreement, and the issue has been at the forefront of much of the political campaigning, with a lot of uncertainty surrounding what closer ties with the EU, and perhaps full membership down the line, actually mean.

“Communication is essential,” said Leanca. “Unfortunately citizens of Moldova are targets of a campaign of disinformation without precedents. The level of lies that are disseminated, they are primitive, but unfortunately they are quite effective.”

On Thursday Moldova’s appeal court disqualified a pro-Russian party from competing in the election, following allegations it had illegally used foreign funds to finance its campaign. The party, Patria – created a few months ago by Moldovan businessman Renato Usatii – is pro-Russian and opposes joining the EU. Usatii said on Friday that he had fled to Russia fearing arrest.

In Parcani, Julita Caruntu, 68, who had come to listen to the prime minister speak, said: “I will vote for Leanca’s Liberal Democrat party. I think he’s a good man, his party has given a lot of help to our village. I am with Europe, I want Moldova to be in European Union.”