A Queensland Univerity professor has attempted to debunk the theory which accused stablecoin Tether issuance model of manipulating the Bitcoin value.

Tether Not Responsible

In his report, Dr. Wang Chun, Ph.D., Finance, discussed how he constructed a Vector Autoregression, or VAR, model to prove that Tether never played a catalyst to Bitcoin’s super-normal rally towards $20,000 last year. VAR models monitor relationships between variables over a period. Dr. Chun pitted data taken from Tether grants, daily Tether trading volume, daily Bitcoin trading volume, and Bitcoin returns against each other and discovered four key findings. They are:

No empirical evidence could related Bitcoin uptrend with the Tether grants. Increased Tether grants led to rising in Tether and Bitcoin trading. However, the increase in trading volume didn’t increase Bitcoin returns. Tether grants are issued in small chunks than at one go. It may also suggest demand for Tether coins are clumped and exhibit time clustering. Evidence shows Tether trading increases every time before Bitcoin fall. It means investors shift from volatile cryptocurrencies to ‘stable coins’ in times of excessive market volatility.

The paper also noted a subpoena issued to Tether Limited by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, coupled with an anonymous report from January 2018 saying that company issued USDT coins to raise the price of Bitcoin. However, Dr. Chun cleared that they didn’t consider such claims before constructing their VR model.