The Libertarian Party of Canada saw a five-fold increase in its vote in the 2015 federal election over 2011, but that’s no guarantee Maxine Bernier will be able to draw upon that fertile ground for his new party.

A look through Elections Canada voting results for the Libertarian Party from 2000 to 2015 reveals a surprising climb through six election periods — from no candidates in the 2000 election to 36,775 ballots cast for Libertarian candidates in 2015.

It’s been a slow but steady climb, from 1,949 votes for Libertarian candidates in the 2004 election to 3,002 in 2006. Support rose to 7,300 votes in the snap election called by former prime minister Stephen Harper in 2008. And in 2011, when Harper won his first and only majority government, support for Libertarians dipped to 6,002 votes.

The 2015 results came after the party elected a new leader, Tim Moen, a Calgary paramedic whose tweets and comments attracted broad attention when he contested a byelection in Fort McMurray.

Under Moen, 72 Libertarians ran for election in 2015, compared to 23 four years earlier. While small in relative terms, Libertarian support, however small, ranged across the country, hitting a roadblock in Atlantic Canada.

The party could not find candidates in Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island or New Brunswick. One Libertarian had his name on the ballot in Nova Scotia, in Sydney, N.S., and won 242 votes.

The party fielded eight candidates in Quebec, and 28 in Ontario, including letter carrier Katerina Androutsos, who won 1,384 votes in Scarborough Centre, 3.1 per cent of the votes cast in the electoral district and the highest number of votes for any Libertarian candidate.

Moen first crossed paths with Bernier, a self-described libertarian, in 2017, offering to step aside and nominate Bernier as leader of the Libertarian Party after Bernier narrowly lost the Conservative leadership race that year to Andrew Scheer.

Bernier did not take up the offer.

Last week, after Bernier suddenly left the Conservatives on the first day of the party’s final pre-election policy convention in Halifax, Moen posted a video statement expressing skepticism about Bernier’s plan to create a new conservative party.

“Our party has been steadfast for 45 years while numerous conservative parties have come and gone,” Moen said. “Conservatives tend to be rudderless.”

Bernier was popular among firearm owners in western Canada during his leadership bid, and his fundraising results in the region revealed popularity out west.

Shachi Kurl, executive director of the Angus Reid Institute, said the support for Libertarian candidates has yet to reach the level of popularity that could be attractive to Bernier.

“If you’ve got a party that’s breaking through to, say, 15 to 20 per cent of the vote, that becomes something to pay attention to,” said Kurl.

Forum Research pollster Lorne Bozinoff says if Bernier does gain support from fellow libertarians, which Bozinoff expects is possible, it might not take much to throw the Conservatives off balance.

“I would say they’re not too far off from Trump supporters, and we shouldn’t assume Canada is completely different from the States, right?” Bozinoff said.

“I think there will be some appeal for him, I’m not sure to what extent, but I don’t know that it needs a lot of appeal to do a lot of damage to the Conservatives,” he said.