Some historic African-American neighborhoods in Nashville’s urban core have experienced declines of more than 20 percentage points in their black populations over the past decade, according to a Tennessean analysis of newly-released census data.

The findings will ring true for anyone who has followed the urban core’s redevelopment and gentrification, but this may be the first time the dramatic racial shifts have been documented with data.

Nashville’s development boom has not only reshaped the physical landscape, but the data shows it upended the social and cultural landscape as well.

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Like the rest of the nation, Davidson County’s socio-economic divisions tend to fall along racial lines. Those who can afford the new and revamped housing surrounding downtown typically aren’t long-time black residents. Instead, they are leaving for more affordable outlying areas, while white buyers and renters are spreading throughout the core.

Janice Key lived in her Edgehill home for more than a quarter century before developers started knocking on her door. She bought the 1,000-square-foot house, perched on a hill and overlooking downtown, for $48,000 in 1992. It was a low-key and close-knit community with many older African-Americans, Key said.

“I was comfortable," she said.

Then, about four years ago, her neighbors started selling. Builders tore down little homes and erected what Key and the other holdouts called “mansions.”

“It seemed like a big rush, like you were being pushed,” she said, while standing in front of her old home site, which is now vacant land.

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Edgehill had one of the largest racial shifts in the county during the past decade. This historic African-American community was home to black lawyers, doctors and other professionals in the early 20th century. It remained predominantly black until this development boom.

From 2007 to 2011, African-Americans made up 67 percent of the total population, on average, census data shows. But between 2012 and 2016, their average share was down to 50 percent. The white population, meanwhile, shifted from 26 percent to 45 percent in the same time frame.

Key’s new neighbors — the ones buying $700,000 homes — were mostly white. They walked tiny fluffy white dogs, she said, and rode bikes on streets that were until then dominated by cars. They weren’t as friendly as Key would have expected and acted like they lived there first.

“I don’t know if it was about color,” she said.

Over the last two years Key fielded the offers from investors, agents and developers. Her streets were clogged with more construction crews every day. Eventually, she said she gave in to the pressure. She sold the lot in March — the house was an afterthought — for $640,000.

“I did not sell it because of the money,” she said as a black Range Rover passed on the street with a clipboard on its dashboard. “I sold it because of my health, because of the growth. The growth took away that comfort zone.”

Key, 65, bought a house on a one-acre lot in northeast Nashville, near Madison, for a third of the sales price. With the windfall she’s been able to support friends and family and to give to her church, she said.

Black residents are moving to the outskirts

Seeking affordability, many other black residents have moved to the county’s periphery. Some of the few areas with a growing black population, according to the data, were in Goodlettsville, Hermitage and Neely’s Bend.

The Tennessean analyzed American Community Survey data, which is based on responses from 3.5 million American households. Among other demographic information, it shows the average percentage of each race or ethnicity over the five-year time frames.

About half of the county’s 62 census tracts had statistically significant changes in their share of African-American residents, while it’s difficult to say what happened in the others.

The tract north of downtown encompassing Germantown, Salemtown, Buena Vista and Hope Gardens saw the largest drop in the county. The black population fell from 60 percent of the total population to 38 percent, while the white population climbed from 37 percent to 59 percent.

The larger share of whites can, in part, be explained by the area’s new infill construction. Formerly industrial or vacant property has been redeveloped into high-end condos, townhomes, lofts and apartments. Many of the new residents are young white professionals, said David Ewing, a local historian who has followed evolving neighborhoods.

While Germantown has been diverse for decades, Salemtown in particular was mostly black, Ewing said. African-Americans moved there during the “urban renewal” of the 1950s and 1960s, when entire neighborhoods around the state Capitol were razed. Residents fled north and to East Nashville. Today, after the latest wave of development infused more white residents, these are some of the city’s most diverse areas, he said.

“Most of these neighborhoods have very strong identities,” he said. “And it’s not just racial identities.”

Housing costs are driving the moves

East Nashville is another area that experienced large drops in the black population. The census tract of Eastwood Neighbors and Greenwood, for instance, went from 40 percent African-American to 23 percent.

Housing advocate Rusty Lawrence moved into his East Nashville neighborhood 30 years ago. For decades, it was an affordable place to live. He’s watched the latest development boom transform the area into a much whiter, more affluent place.

“When you start seeing joggers on the streets, you know the neighborhood is changing,” he said.

Young professionals are moving into new “tall skinny” homes, Lawrence said — often two houses on a lot in place of an older home occupied by older, lower-income residents.

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The region's soaring home values — up more than 34 percent over four years — have strained many residents. A quarter of homeowners are cost-burdened, meaning they pay more than 30 percent of their income for housing, according to a recent Metro government report.

“It’s pushing all the economically vulnerable folks out of downtown, but that’s where they still work,” said Lawrence, executive director of Urban Housing Solutions. Service employees in the hospitality industry now have to now commute, adding to growing traffic congestion.

Not the first demographic shift around Nashville

While today’s black migration appears to be a response to waning affordability and redevelopment, recent decades saw a different trend.

In the mid-2000s, African-American and Hispanic residents moved in great numbers to Nashville’s suburbs, reflecting a broader change in the South. But the reasons were different that time. Affluent African-Americans were returning to suburbs from inner cities, demographers found, looking for better schools and larger homes.

Nashville Census tracts with the largest drop in the average African-American population

As a share of total population, 2007-2011 vs. 2012-2016.

Germantown / Salemtown / Hope Gardens / Buena Vista: From 60.4% black to 38.4%

Edgehill: From 67.1% black to 49.8%

Chestnut Hill: From 91.9% black to 74.8%

Greenwood / Eastwood Neighbors (East Nashville): From 40.0% black to 22.8%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey (ACS) five-year estimates; Tennessean analysis