TV and news website audiences are sky-high but, with few ads or new shows, future looks fraught

From TV channels running out of shows, to newspapers facing the threat of closure, the British media industry is facing a financial shock that will permanently reshape how we consume news and entertainment.

Media analysts and insiders warn the pandemic will have a long-lasting impact on the country’s cultural life, predicting that changes in consumer behaviour expected to take more than five years may have happened in five weeks, with many people unlikely to entirely return to their pre-lockdown habits.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Filming of Love Island has been delayed until August at the earliest and it could now be shot in the UK. Photograph: ITV/Rex/Shutterstock

Television audiences are up – but channels risk running out of shows

Audiences for traditional TV channels have rocketed as Britons are stuck at home, with viewing levels higher than at Christmas time. One unexpected side-effect of the pandemic has been the enormous increase in viewing among teenagers, potentially signalling the return of families watching TV together.

The problem for commercial channels is that there are very few advertisements to show to these enlarged audiences, as companies cut their marketing budgets ahead of the impending recession. One insider at a commercial channel said British TV advertising is down 40% for the three months between March and June.

“The way the media market works is on supply and demand,” said Stephen Allan, chief executive of the major media buying agency MediaCom, referring to the enlarged audiences available to advertisers and the fall in the number of companies wanting to buy adverts to reach them. “What broadcast media are facing is a perfect storm, where supply has gone up hugely but demand has gone down.”

He said that while some of his clients are talking about increasing their advertising spend when the lockdown ends, he fears channels will run out of new programmes to bring in audiences, as no shows have been made during the lockdown.

“Stuff that was being made is not going to be there, in terms of the more typical dramas or sitcoms. So what are they going to show?”

These fears are widespread, with popular soaps such as EastEnders and Coronation Street already cutting the number of episodes they screen to try to avoid running out of pre-filmed material.

“For at least two years you’re going to see less money on screen,” said Tom Harrington of Enders Analysis, who predicted a severe shortage of scripted dramas. Actors and directors will have committed to filming multiple projects, he said, with schedules that now overlap.

He also said that about 40% of the most popular 1,000 shows in the UK are episodes of soaps, which could soon fall off air unless production resumes: “Neighbours is now on twice a week, which completely destroys the point of soaps. The longer they can’t film, [the more likely] they’ll run out of episodes.”

Meanwhile, ITV sources confirmed reports that filming of Love Island, one of the channel’s main cashcows, has been delayed until August at the earliest, and could even be filmed in the UK rather than on a Spanish island.

And Channel 4 has slashed its programme budget by a quarter to ensure survival, raising fears that the collapse of domestic commissioning budgets will mean less distinctively British television will get made.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest A pile of Evening Standards, a London commuter newspaper, awaits delivery to homes. Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

Newspapers face threat of closure as advertisers flee

The British newspaper industry is facing an existential threat, with the National Union of Journalists warning many papers will close permanently as a result of the pandemic, and thousands of journalists will lose their jobs.

Newspaper websites are seeing record readership levels but little income, as advertisers have slashed budgets or blocked their promotions from appearing alongside coronavirus-related stories. There are also signs that news audiences are starting to decline as people get used to the lockdown.

Free websites are often cross-subsidised by print sales, but the model is being hit hard. Although there has been an increase in people using services such as Deliver My Newspaper, national newspaper sales are down by about a fifth, with staff at News UK asked to tweet urging people to buy a paper in an attempt to drive up sales.

Print advertising revenue has collapsed, down by about 80% since the start of the pandemic. The situation at local newspapers, which rely on small local businesses for ads, and were struggling even before the crisis, is worse. Almost every major British publisher, including the Guardian, has furloughed some staff in an attempt to weather the storm.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Production of hit shows such as Sex Education has been paused. Composite: Sam Taylor

Streaming and gaming look to fill the gap

Netflix has been among the biggest winners, with its soaring share price meaning the company is now worth more than the oil multinational ExxonMobil. However, it is facing its own issues, with production of hit shows such as Sex Education paused owing to the pandemic. YouTube has also enjoyed enormous viewership, but its creators have suffered falls in ad revenue, which is also likely to dent profits at Facebook and Google.

Sky and BT Sport have been badly affected by the absence of sport, with many people pausing or cancelling their subscriptions – but there are growth areas. Viewers have turned to gaming, with popular consoles such as the Nintendo Switch sold out in many stores.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest Films such as Keira Knightley’s Misbehaviour have been rush-released for download. Photograph: Parisa Taghizadeh/PA

Cinema releases have been upended

The global film release schedule has been upended by the pandemic, with cinemas closed for the foreseeable future and films stacking up as they miss their release dates.

The UK cinema industry is likely to lose £400m in ticket sales as 52 million cinema-goers stay at home, based on equivalent figures from 2019. Industry chiefs hope audiences will return to see delayed blockbusters such as Wonder Woman 1984, the latest James Bond, No Time to Die, and Mulan. However even when the lockdown is lifted, consumers might take a while to be comfortable squeezing into cinema seats next to strangers.

Some films are opting to go down the modern equivalent of the direct-to-video route, with Trolls World Tour, a children’s film, made available on streaming services after its cinema release was cancelled. Other films, such as Keira Knightley’s Misbehaviour, which was released in cinemas just days before the lockdown, have been rush-released for download.

Facebook Twitter Pinterest The BBC has enjoyed a let-up from ministers’ attacks. Photograph: Leon Neal/Getty

The BBC hopes it has saved itself

At the start of the year the BBC was under attack from all sides, and the licence fee could yet be decriminalised. But after attracting plaudits from ministers for its role in a crisis, and with its stable source of funding not affected by the advertising collapse, it has a chance to prove its value.