In his book The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver (of FiveThirtyEight) devotes an entire chapter to poker. Specifically, he tells the story of Chris Moneymaker, an amateur player who quit his office job and somehow went on to win $2.5 million at the World Series of Poker. Moneymaker was an overnight sensation, and his unusual success inspired millions of unqualified people to try their hand at online poker. The catch: Moneymaker wasn’t actually great at poker, and his success was due mostly to an extreme stretch of luck. The game of poker is such that a player in the 95th percentile has only a slightly better than 50% chance to beat a player in the 85th percentile, and it’s easy to lose against lesser players simply through bad luck. Millions of people, inspired by Moneymaker, lost huge sums of money in online poker trying to follow his example. Here’s the takeaway: sometimes things just happen, no matter how improbable. Drawing conclusions from these events that are too strong can lead to serious trouble.

The Los Angeles Clippers had their season taken from them in a similarly improbable turn of events. The Houston Rockets went on a 50-21 scoring run in the third and fourth quarters of game 6, sparked by Dwight Howard’s initial 4/4 free throw shooting and a series of Josh Smith 3 pointers. Read that sentence again.

DeAndre Jordan finishes that dunk 99/100 times

Even Jon Barry understood how improbable that Houston comeback was. The Rockets blitzed an exhausted Clipper team defensively, swarming ball-handlers and keeping Blake Griffin away from the rim. They got unsustainably hot shooting and took advantage of some uncharacteristic lapses by a normally tight Clipper defense. On top of all this, there were plays that simply broke the Rockets way, like when DeAndre Jordan dove into the crowd to save the ball and threw it right into Jason Terry’s waiting hands. Sometimes things really do just happen.

Right in the eye of the storm, once again, we find Chris Paul. The narratives essentially write themselves: the guy still can’t fight his way to the Conference Finals, let alone win a title. He’s had four years now with a Clipper core that should be “good enough”, and he’s had disappointing playoff exits all the while, with this current one being a particularly noteworthy collapse. The Clippers’ failure has brought a cataclysm down upon Paul, with the loudest voices outright blaming him for the loss.

During this recent bout of pneumonia (yes, really), I’ve had nothing but time to re-watch and comb over every single possession of games 6 and 7, looking for what went wrong. And through it all, what I’ve come to find is that Paul is the Clipper least deserving of blame. Paul was masterful in the last 2 games of the series, and should absolutely not be held accountable for the failures of his front office compounded by some extreme ill-fortune. If Chris Paul is to blame for failing to command the universe the way he does a basketball court, then so be it. As always, however, the tape reveals the true story.

The Good

Blake Griffin’s coming out party has been the most compelling storyline of the playoffs thus far (Sorry Phil, I don’t buy your outdated beliefs). Griffin morphed into the playoffs’ most terrifying offensive force, bullying fools on the block, firing lasers to shooters in the corners, and tossing lob after lob to frontcourt partner DeAndre Jordan. Blake has the ball skills to run the Clippers’ offense from the point, and his newfound mid-range touch has been a particularly effective lubricant for an offense that used to stall when the paint was clogged.

The Clippers set out to attack Josh Smith, who was inserted into the starting lineup for game 5. Smith is neither athletic nor disciplined enough to stay with Griffin, and Los Angeles’ first few half court possessions featured Blake isolating this matchup. Griffin ate both Houston power forwards alive for the middle stretch of this Houston series, and his jumper was so effective that the Clippers were able to bait help defenders into rotating to him, leaving passing lanes wide open:

Griffin, like any other athletic freak, is at his best in transition, and the Clippers employed a scorched-earth approach to offense in the early stages of game 6, even attacking after made baskets:

This was a great read, as Houston was playing some of the most undisciplined and messy transition defense we’ve seen in a playoff series in recent memory. Zach Lowe was the first to point out that the Rockets first step to transition defense was equivalent to a team playing its third preseason game, and the Clippers ran like hell to take advantage. Griffin spearheaded this attack, and the Clippers found fantastic looks for J.J. Redick and Matt Barnes from three on the break.

Speaking of Redick, he should be getting far more credit than he has for his defense on James Harden in this series. J.J. was the only Clipper who stood a chance of guarding the Beard full-time in this series, and he simply killed it. Redick’s ball pressure legitimately flustered Harden and forced catches way out on the perimeter, and Redick played incredibly disciplined defense and got a hand up to contest every single jumpshot. It was really incredible. There are three rules for guarding James Harden: don’t get screened, absorb contact without pushing back, and contest hard on every jumper. Redick completed this checklist and then some, pestering Harden more than his chest cold. He was prone to getting blown by at times, but that happens with Harden, and the Clippers had their bigs sag on the pick and roll to stop this anyway. Redick was the second most important Clipper on the defensive end.

As mentioned earlier, Chris Paul was excellent down the stretch of this series. Chris needed to step up his scoring to counteract the fatigue of two consecutive 7 game series for his teammates, and his absence in games 1 and 2 meant he had the freshest legs on the squad. Paul’s midrange jumper was money as always, and he was even able to drop some three pointers off the dribble despite his slow windup. Paul contributed to the Clippers’ second half scoring drought in game 6 with some ill-timed misses, but the team had checked out of the game by that point and the Rockets were able to key in on him like they hadn’t before. Chris literally kept the team afloat through the second and third quarters of game 7, being aggressive about finding his own shot when no one else on the team would. Paul is a legitimate terror in man defense, and he all but neutralized Harden in the fourth quarter of game 7, which sparked that improbable Clipper run that fell short.

The Bad

The downside of Redick spending every minute on Harden is that he can run out of gas quickly. He was horrendous shooting the ball down the stretch of this series, going 6 for his last 26 from three. The entire team was gassed by the fourth quarter of game 6, and it was the little things that stopped them from staving off that incredible Houston comeback. Blake Griffin set records for laziness, especially on inbounds plays:

Griffin had some inexcusable defensive lapses in game 7, even counting the fatigue. At times it almost seemed like he was checked out, like this double-whammy of letting Pablo Prigioni steal the inbounds pass and then letting Harden drive unimpeded to the rim:

Four of the top nine playoff leaders in minutes played were Clippers; Blake Griffin and J.J. Redick have played the most and second-most total minutes in these playoffs by a longshot. Griffin played 95 more minutes in the first two rounds than any player currently on a Conference Finals team. This falls squarely at the feet of the Clipper front office, especially Doc Rivers, who has botched multiple free agent signings and gutted the team’s bench in his short stint as team President. It’s just impossible to win a title this way, and it’s abundantly clear that this was the most direct cause of the team’s loss this season. Rivers’ ineptitude as a personnel director hamstrung (pardon the pun) his ability as a coach, and the pace at which the team collapsed should be traced directly to Rivers.

That’s not to say Rivers did a bad job as a coach; on the contrary, Doc knew what buttons to push offensively, and his insight to switch the Clippers’ pick and roll coverage likely won them games 1 and 3, with a flummoxed Harden struggling to get to the rim. But there’s only so much you can do when you’re giving significant minutes to Austin Rivers, who frankly should’ve been out of the league by now. Doc went all in on Spencer Hawes this offseason, and subsequently dropped him from the rotation within the first two months of the season. This is exactly the type of situation a coach-GM hybrid is meant to avoid; when the players you bring in are “your guys”, finding minutes for them should not be a problem. Rivers mortgaged his roster to bring Hawes in, most egregiously sending veteran role player Jared Dudley and the team’s first round pick to Milwaukee to clear salary room. Dudley has blossomed into a key bench piece for the surging Bucks, and could’ve been a huge boon to a Clippers team that struggles to find working bodies on the wing. Rivers took enough heat for saving his son from the D-League, so I won’t harp on that, but suffice to say a professional organization should not be making such moves.

Poring over the Clippers’ offseason moves feels like connecting the dots on a corkboard in a bad detective film noir scene. It’s hard to see a unifying theme or vision there, and some of the moves don’t even make sense in isolation. The Clippers were notably silent at the trade dealine- which happened to be the largest in NBA history. The Clippers should’ve been buyers at the deadline, as valuable wing depth was certainly available. Wilson Chandler could’ve been had for a first round pick- the very pick Los Angeles sent to Milwaukee with Jared Dudley’s salary. Aaron Afflalo was sent to Portland for an underwhelming package, and would’ve filled a nice niche in the Clippers’ starting lineup. It’s unclear if Jae Crowder was available at the deadline, but the Celtics have made it clear they’re willing to move anyone for the right price. Corey Brewer and Kevin Martin were similarly dangled by Minnesota. The Clippers could’ve simply made themselves the third team in one of a multitude of deals that shuffled wing players around, to say nothing of quality wings like Thabo Sefolosha or Paul Pierce who were available for Spencer Hawes’ salary in the offseason. The Celtics were the most active team at the trade deadline, and seem unlikely to do any favors for Doc Rivers, but even then the Clippers passed on a golden opportunity to bolster their championship hopes.

To be clear, I have a tremendous amount of respect for Rivers as a coach and basketball mind, but it’s fairly evident he’s been unable to do the jobs of two men at once.

Kevin McHale wasted no time assimilating the strategies that enabled the Rockets frenzied game 6 comeback, and his team pushed the pace from the jump in game 7, taking advantage of a deflated Clipper team that found themselves winded by the end of the first quarter. The Rockets pushed the ball in transition on every single possession, driving a 108.9 pace that the Clippers simply couldn’t handle. Los Angeles was lax in transition defense, and the Rockets found most of their offense through transition and scrappy work on the offensive glass.

McHale picked on Griffin early and often, running pick and rolls through Josh Smith on every half court possession, forcing Griffin to work in space. The Rockets picked on Griffin relentlessly, even calling isolations for Smith to take advantage of his slow feet:

You just don’t call an isolation for a player like Josh Smith without a very good reason. McHale knew exactly what he was doing and was ruthless in his exploitation. Blake played an awful defensive game in general, and his lack of effort didn’t go unnoticed. At the 9:34 mark of the third quarter, DeAndre Jordan gets visibly angry and has words with Griffin after the latter is slow getting back on defense and asks for a switch, leaving Jordan to foul the quicker Josh Smith.

Griffin’s problems weren’t only on defense, either. The Clippers depended heavily on his isolation play during their game 6 blitzkreig, but he simply couldn’t bring it on Sunday afternoon. Griffin tossed up some half-hearted attempts at the rim, and in one telling sequence refused to post up James Harden, who had switched onto him after a screen. The Rockets were able to get away with Trevor Ariza guarding Blake for stretches, as Griffin simply didn’t have it in him to attack. The low point was a second quarter sequence in which J.J. Redick attempted to set a cross-screen for Blake to set up a post entry, and Griffin simply refuses the screen and stays put.

It became clear that Griffin’s issues were related to fatigue, as he revved the engine for the fourth quarter and looked like his incredible self again. The most heartbreaking aspect of the Clippers fourth quarter run was that they were simply playing like themselves again; Griffin on the attack and the rest of the team in motion, no more relying on Paul or Crawford to hunt for their own shot as was the case in quarters 2 and 3. If Blake had simply been 80% of himself in this game, there’s no doubt the Clippers would be playing in the Western Conference Finals. Blake’s legs looked as though they were made of lead, and he made some crucial defensive lapses:

There’s something else to note about the play above: DeAndre Jordan can’t help at the rim for fear of leaving Dwight Howard open for a lob. Dwight has been incredible throughout the playoffs, and has arguably been Houston’s best player on balance. Unbelievably, Howard and Josh Smith have reached a near-telepathic level of communication, effortlessly switching and tag-teaming fools at the rim. Smith and Howard have incredible chemistry on both ends of the floor, and can rival the dreaded Green-Bogut Warrior front court on that front. The Rockets have an extremely flexible defense, and with the emergence of Smith can send a force out to the point of attack while leaving one behind to clean up at the rim. This has become one of the keys of modern NBA defense: the best teams can send a long, versatile wing to blow up pick and roll and leave a dominating interior presence on the baseline.

Howard draws absurd amounts of attention offensively, and Houston’s offense, for all its simplicity, actually makes intricate use of its players’ gravity. Houston has the most dangerous pick and roll in the league, and when Griffin gets blown by and Jordan steps up to help, Jamal Crawford is left with an impossible choice: bump Howard to prevent the lob and leave Ariza open, or close out on Ariza and give up a dunk:

Howard doesn’t even need to move to make the Clippers panic, and when James Harden or Josh Smith can break down their first level, defenses in rotation simply fold. Howard had a field day setting (illegal?) screens against exhausted Clipper defenders, giving Houston some of their best looks in the half court:

The Clipper guards were simply in no position to fight through contact, and once again we see the lack of depth bite them in the ass.

The Ugly

With Chris Paul on the bench (and sometimes with Paul on the floor) Jamal Crawford became the de-facto lead guard for the Clipper offense, and it was disastrous. Crawford played as though he had blinders on, and struggled to read the floor on even the most obvious defensive breakdowns:

Take one look at the floor! Blake Griffin is guarded by Jason Terry on a switch, and James Harden is left to guard two weak side shooters by himself, all while Crawford faces a double team. Crawford, of course, calls his own number and ends up tossing a floater from 10 feet:

He scores, but that’s not the point. The Clippers had an opportunity for a far better look than what Crawford was able to manufacture, and yet they settled for his off-balance push shot. Crawford did this all series, and on multiple occasions shot the Clippers out of games. In games 5, 6 and 7 the Clippers were outscored by 56 points with Crawford on the floor, and he was present for every single Houston scoring onslaught in the final two games. With Griffin visibly spent, the minutes that Paul rested saw Crawford run the offense, and it was akin to aiming a rocket launcher at one’s own foot. Almost every possession in these situations ended up with a Crawford isolation, most notably on the last play of the half in game 7 which saw Chris Paul standing in the corner while Crawford coughed up a prayer.

The Clippers were so desperate for bodies that instead of having Paul sit on the bench, they resorted to him standing in the left corner while Crawford ran the offense. This was probably the most miserable sequence of the entire game 7, and Houston immediately went on a scoring run before Paul took it upon himself to force his scoring and brought the Clippers back within 10.

Crawford was absolutely atrocious on the defensive end as well, ball-watching and spacing out as Trevor Ariza slithered around hunting for threes. Ariza played a hell of a series, and was able to feast on the Crawford-Barnes combination Los Angeles used to defend him. On one key sequence during the Rockets miracle comeback, Crawford spaced out in transition defense, springing Corey Brewer for the dunk that tied the game.

Matt Barnes had a similarly disastrous series, and Rivers couldn’t pull him off the court fast enough in that game 6 fourth quarter. Barnes’ effort came and went. On certain possessions he was visibly locked in and did a good job defending Ariza, and at other times he simply let Dwight Howard saunter into the lane for a dead-easy putback:

Just box out!

The Clippers were left with no recourse when Barnes clearly needed to be pulled; Hedo Turkoglu is not an option for key minutes in playoff games (thanks again, GM Doc!). The Clippers limited the bleeding most of the time, but Houston got ridiculous value every time they were able to force Barnes to switch onto Harden. Barnes was blown by on almost every such possession, and most Houston dunks can be traced back to such breakdowns.

Fatigue obviously played a role in limiting Matt Barnes. Almost all of his shots were short and he is not the type of player to get taken advantage of repeatedly. He attempted just two shots in 21 minutes in game 7, and missed both, including a dead-easy layup he blew in the first quarter. Between he and Crawford, the Clippers had no good option on the wing besides Redick, and the lack of reliable defenders completely sunk the team.

Shots in the Dark

DeAndre Jordan’s free agency will define the future of this team. The Clippers simply can’t afford to lose him, lest they fall out of contention for the foreseeable future. Doc Rivers has been emphatic that there is mutual desire from both parties to work out a max contract, and on the surface this is believable enough.

Rumors have surfaced lately alleging a deepening rift between Jordan and Chris Paul though, ostensibly due to certain aspects of their respective personalities. Jordan had questions about his work ethic come up on draft day, although it’s entirely possible these fears were unfounded. Still, though, DeAndre’s free throw line struggles were a huge story during these playoffs, and that’s a red flag. It’s not hard to see Chris Paul demanding absolute perfection from his teammates in every aspect, even if that means shooting himself in the foot. Take it from a blogger who has spent his life battling overwhelming Paul-esque perfectionism: if DeAndre’s work ethic struggles are real, it’s totally possible this rumor has legs.

Losing Jordan will almost certainly result in a lost year for the Clippers. Their salaries will likely fall just a hair under the projected cap even without a new contract for DeAndre. Dallas has serious interest in Jordan; if he leaves, the Clippers’ best hope to salvage the 2016 season will likely be working out a miracle sign-and-trade. Waiving Jamal Crawford would guarantee them room under the cap, in which case something like Jordan for Tyson Chandler and Al-Farouq Aminu could possibly salvage their roster. Any other proposed trade leaves way too much to chance: be happy you’re not the Clippers’ General Manager this offseason. From there, the Clippers’ only potential route for improvement involve the massive salary cap jump next offseason, where most teams will find themselves with space and multiple free agents will likely chase huge contracts from new teams.

If Jordan returns on a max contract, the most likely scenario, the Clippers will be scraping against the luxury tax apron and have little wiggle room to improve. The team can renounce both Matt Barnes and Jamal Crawford, as both have little guaranteed money. This would keep the Clippers below the apron, giving them a little over $5 million dollars to spend with the mid-level exception. If they keep both players, as they should, they will have just over $3 million to spend on free agents. The Clippers cannot afford to lose both Barnes and Crawford, and probably can’t part with either; a team with that thin a rotation can’t gamble on losing even more contributors. Keeping both players and spending the MLE effectively hard caps the team, leaving them up a creek in the event of an injury or future trade possibility.

Spencer Hawes is an intriguing trade candidate. Teams will likely be leery of trading for a player who couldn’t find playoff minutes, but teams that have cleared space and missed out on Paul Millsap, Marc Gasol, and LaMarcus Aldridge might be willing to gamble on him in the name of front court depth. The Clippers would need to acquire a starting wing in such a scenario, and this would leave them relying on Glen Davis as a third big once again, which is less than optimal. Trading Hawes is a tough pill to swallow given all it took to sign him, but the Clippers need to be open to all avenues to improve the team.

Crawford and Barnes are also trade candidates due to the way their contracts are structured. Both can be waived for only a combined $2.5 million cap hit this season, and thus are attractive for teams looking to unload salary. Chicago is a team to keep an eye on if they part with Tom Thibodeau; the team could look to part ways with veteran swingman Mike Dunleavy to free up minutes for Snell and McDermott. Dunleavy brings a lot of what Redick does, but more shooting is never a bad thing, and having a smart veteran who can play defense and bring toughness can tilt the odds in your favor during a title push. The Bulls are constantly on the prowl for salary relief, and could waive one of those players or simply save the depth on the wing.

The Raptors will likely be sellers this offseason, and have a few promising young wings. Terrence Ross is an interesting name, as he’s still on a rookie contract and can shoot. Ross is not a good defensive player, but he can fill a niche on the team and probably start, and there’s always room for improvement. It’s unlikely the Clippers have any pieces Toronto would be interested in, but it remains a possibility. Wesley Matthews is another interesting name: if Aldridge leaves, Portland might be leery of giving the free agent a big contract, and if enough teams are scared away by the injury he could accept a “prove yourself” contract from Los Angeles. This is an extremely unlikely scenario, as Matthews will likely want long-term security. Portland has another wing in Aaron Afflalo that could interest the Clippers depending on that organization’s future plans. Wilson Chandler will be an option once again, although it’s rather clear Denver isn’t interested in anything besides draft picks the Clippers don’t have.

It’s entirely possible that if Jordan returns, the Clippers simply bring everyone back and look to add minimum salaried players. Doc doesn’t have a stellar track record here, but improvement in his second year on the job is actually quite likely.

On Chris Paul

Labeling Paul a choker has never made sense, and it’s even more foolish now. Paul played a brilliant series against the Rockets save the two games he missed with a hamstring injury. With each playoff loss, it gets harder and harder to silence the doubters, which is a damn shame. One need only watch a few minutes of Clippers basketball to appreciate the way the entire floor is at his command and the deftness of his cerebral attack. He’s one of the five best basketball players in the world currently, and will go down as one of the greatest point guards to ever play when it’s all said and done.

Losing in the playoffs does not make one a loser. It’s a shallow, perhaps even lazy way to organize the world in black-and-white terms. Winning a championship requires a great deal of luck, and losing to Josh Smith’s Rockets requires an even greater amount of bad luck. Paul plays even better than one could expect in these series, so how can he be to blame?

Don’t throw your money away losing in online poker. Don’t write Chris Paul’s story based on a fluke.