Spinning the Numbers

In the Commission’s 2017 report, a noticeably glossier edition compared with 2014, increased turnout is praised, particularly for youth voters. But there’s a catch — turnout trends are measured differently compared with the measure emphasised in the 2014 version of the report. In 2017, turnout as a proportion of enrolled electors was used, which is the version we normally hear about in the media. In the 2014 report, the proportion of the eligible voting population is used. This also considers those eligible to vote who aren’t enrolled.

Electoral Commission Report on the 2017 General Election, page 6.

So it’s true, turnout of 18–24 year old enrolled electors did increase 6.5%, from 62.7% to 69.3%.

But what happened to enrolment?

It dropped — from 76.5% in 2014 to 72.3% in 2017 for those aged 18–24. In fact, it’s been dropping steadily for young people. It’s not just the 18–24 year old cohort either. Enrolment has been on the decline for all voters under 35.

Data sourced from the Electoral Commission Reports on the 2014 and 2017 General Elections.

What does this mean for turnout?

It still went up, but not nearly as much. Just 48% of eligible 18–24 year olds cast a vote in 2014, this rose 2.1% to 50.1% in 2017.

It’s unclear why the Electoral Commission focussed on the enrolled-voter measure in 2017, but in the context of the worsening variation in enrolment by age, along with their own ominous warnings in 2014, it seems the eligible-voter measure paints a much clearer picture of voter participation.

Data sourced from Electoral Commission Report on the 2017 General Election, page 16, and 2017 General Election Results: Voter Turnout Statistics

When we group together those under 35 and those 35 and older, it demonstrates even more clearly the importance of careful selection and interpretation of measures.

This has a big impact on who the country’s votes represent. In 2017, those aged 18–34 were 31% of the population, but only accounted for 23% of all votes.