2019-12-07 2018-04-17 Analysis for ETHUSD, BCHUSD, XRPUSD: analysis of TOP 3 altcoins Mikhail Hypov 2019-12-072018-04-17

We analyze TOP 3 altcoins against USD, applying SK-FX. ETH, XRP, BCH: which will grow and in what way? What are the targets for each?

In this post, I applied: all-round view of the market, analysis of the market balance level, oscillator analysis, Fibonacci levels analysis, graphic analysis.

Dear friends,

After I posted my articles about SK-FX strategy and analysis for Bitcoin with this strategy applied, I have received a lot of positive comments, and enjoyed great interest from both experienced traders and the newcomers to the cryptocurrency world.

Before I go on studying this strategy, I think, many would like to study the situation around altcoins and define the key levels to trade for the nearest week.

Today, I’m going to analyze TOP 3 altcoins: Ethereum, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash. Unfortunately, these altcoins are rather young, so, there aren’t enough data for the indicators in the monthly chart. However, taking into account that all altcoins are affected by Bitcoin and perfectly correlate with BTCUSD pair, we can take the local low, by analogue, as a basis for the balance (equilibrium) point in the monthly timeframe.

Remember, we indicated this level for BTC at 6,000 USD.

If so, the situation will be like this:

The market equilibrium zone will be at about:

- 358 USD for Ethereum,

- 0,45 USD for Ripple,

- 600 USD for Bitcoin Cash.

Here, I would like to note that these levels should be seen as a kind of benchmarks to draw a vector for the market movement. These levels have been marked, based on deduction, which is transition from general to the specific, rather than on SK-FX strategy. Therefore, they shouldn’t be used as a target for a corresponding trading instrument; however, we can use the levels to base on, when considering the general market direction in the longer timeframe.

If we apply candlestick analysis in the monthly timeframe, these targets seem to be quite appropriate. We see that all altcoins have been trading in the bearish market for the last few months. The last March’s candlesticks have black bodies, which indicate strong bearish market sentiment.

As you know, the longer timeframe is, the stronger signals’ affect is in the long run. So, the three black crows pattern, drawn for XRP and BCH, will strongly affect the trend for at least next three months.

Ethereum situation in this respect doesn’t look better. In the two-month timeframe for Ethereum, there is going to be strong bearish engulfing.

Therefore, it is too early to cancel bearish scenario for these altcoins; and the tickers can well reach the above lows.

On the other hand, we shouldn’t forget that it is about monthly timeframes; and so, during the month, there is going to be strong volatility within quite a wide price range, giving us an opportunity to make profits even from the bearish trend.

In the weekly chart for the altcoins, being analyzed, we see the same situation, I described in the last but one paragraph.

In all charts, we see the short MACD at the bottom window borders, converging with the moving average

In the main charts window we see the ticker be below the equilibrium levels:

- for ETH, it is 625.85 USD;

- for XRP, it is 0.77 USD;

- for BCH, it is 1076 USD.

Now, let’s have a look at the daily timeframe:

Here, there is a greater difference between our altcoins. In the main ETH chart on the left, we see the ticker be above the equilibrium zone of 473 USD. However, ther market isn’t yet in the strong overbought zone, so, we can expect a slight rise or a sideways trend, rather than a drop in the next few days. `

Compared to Ethereum, Ripple looks far more overheated. In the middle chart we see a wide gap between the price curve and the equilibrium level of 0.59 USD; and MACD and the short moving average met near the window top border.

Bitcoin Cash, according to the daily timeframe, has good potential for growth. We see in the chart on the right that the market is in the equilibrium zone. As know, the market can’t stay like this for a long time; and so, we can well expect a good momentum. The matter is, in what direction? To find out, we need to analyze shorter timeframes, where micro and short trends emerge. However, we should note that MACD for BCH is only midway; so, there is another reason for the potential growth.

The next is 12-hour timeframe.

I won’t describe it in great detail, as it has a lot in common with the daily chart. I’ll only add that for all three altcoins, MACD and the moving averages are at the highs, at the window upper borders, which indicates potential reversal signals, emerging in the shorter timeframes.

If we look at 4-hour timeframe, we will see some evidence of that. In all charts, we see a bearish divergence, which is a clear signal of the approaching correction, whose targets should be at the market equilibrium levels, indicated in the daily timeframes:

Finally, let’s analyze the hourly timeframe.

In the chart above, we see a limited growth for all altcoins. It is limited by the previous local high, for ETH is at the level of about 535 USD, for XRP – at about 0.695 USD, BCH – 799 USD. In this timeframe, there is no divergence with the oscillator, which means the bearish signal in the 4-hour timeframe to be week and irrelevant currently.

What do we finally have?

I have collected all the multidirectional vectors in different timeframes and laid Fibonacci levels and different graphic pattern over them.

And the end result looks like this:

For Ethereum, the most likely pattern scenario is bearish wedge that can extend through April, 20, where, influenced by the monthly timeframe, it will form its top, followed by a potential the Head and Shoulders pattern.

For Ripple, the situation is slightly different.

Currently, the price is moving within an equilateral triangle, which is likely be broken by the price, towards the local highs close to the triangle border at 0.71 USD. If this high is not accompanied by sufficient volume, it will provide a good correction signal. Affected by the vector of the monthly timeframe, XRP can form a bearish channel, continue moving inside.

Bitcoin Cash situation is similar to that of Ethereum, except that the targets in the weekly timeframe are much farther, and so, much weaker. The most real scenario is moving inside the wedge with the target of 842 USD, followed by a drawdown, due to the monthly timeframe influence.

What do all three charts above have in common? I think, they all look like a cheese grater that is slowly, layer by layer, peeling off a piece of cheese.

Don’t be cheese ;)

I wish you good luck and good profits!

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