Support for and opposition to Kavanaugh was also split almost exclusively along party lines in the C-SPAN poll. This is just one piece of evidence that Supreme Court nominations have fully become partisan political theater—a pattern that dates back to the fight against another unpopular nominee, Robert Bork, whose failed confirmation process yielded the eponymous verb “to bork,” or systematically vilify.

[ The confirmation wars are over: Partisanship won out—and the contagion is spreading. ]

And that’s how lines of questioning are likely to play out this week during the hearings. Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee will grill Kavanaugh about his views on abortion; his unclear role in reviewing the Bush administration’s terror-suspect detention policies; and his forceful recommendation that lawyers use explicit language in questioning Bill Clinton about his relationship with Monica Lewinsky during the Kenneth Starr investigation. Perhaps most importantly, they will likely ask him whether it is constitutional for presidents to be prosecuted for criminal wrongdoing while in office—a topic Kavanaugh has publicly debated in the past, and one that’s taken on new urgency in light of recent criminal findings against two of Trump’s associates, his former campaign chairman and his former lawyer.

But the most important haggling has already happened—and largely in private. Kavanaugh recently took a long meeting with Senator Susan Collins of Maine, a moderate Republican who is considered a swing vote in the Senate. Collins had previously said she would vote against any Supreme Court nominee who “demonstrates hostility to Roe v. Wade.” After her meeting with Kavanaugh, she said she was heartened by his apparent belief that Roe is “settled precedent.” Kavanaugh also managed to win the public support of Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, another possible swing vote, who had expressed concerns about the judge’s record on privacy issues, including government collection of citizens’ data.

[ Yale Law failed the Kavanaugh Test. ]

Ultimately, these are the votes that matter. Kavanaugh does not have to win the public’s approval to make it to the Supreme Court; he only needs a majority of senators to vote in his favor. These hearings are the first step before Kavanaugh’s nomination comes to a full vote before the Senate.



Legislators may make some fireworks, especially as they dredge back up the political fights of the Clinton-era 1990s. But even if Kavanaugh sails through, his name may still become a rallying cry. For those on the right, he’s living proof of Trump’s lasting imprint on the federal judiciary. “The reason that evangelicals continue to support him at a 75-percent approval rate is that he’s fulfilling [his] promises” to create a conservative judiciary, said Robert Jeffress, one of Trump’s evangelical advisers, in a press release following Kavanaugh’s announcement. Because of this, the pastor added, Trump “will be seen as the most consequential president since Abraham Lincoln.”