Analysis: GOP has 'three-person race' after straw poll

WASHINGTON  One is up, one is out, one is in, and one remains the perceived front-runner.

After a busy weekend in Iowa and South Carolina, the Republican presidential race moves forward with what looks to be a three-way contest among upstart Michele Bachmann, newcomer Rick Perry and perceived front-runner Mitt Romney.

Bachmann, a U.S. House member from Minnesota, seeks momentum after winning the Iowa GOP straw poll — a preliminary contest that knocked former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty out of the race after a disappointing third-place finish.

Meanwhile, the Republican race got a new and potentially formidable candidate in Perry, the Texas governor who announced his bid Saturday before a conservative group in South Carolina.

At some point, both Bachmann and Perry figure to go after Romney, whose campaign war chest make him the front-runner at this point.

"We've got a three-person race now," said Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of a non-partisan political report. "Romney, Perry and Bachmann."

Obama under attack

Celebrating her straw poll win, Bachmann made the circuit of Sunday interview shows to cite the victory as evidence she can capture the White House in 2012.

"People in Iowa sent a message loud and clear to President Obama," Bachmann told CNN's State of the Union. "They said, 'We are done with your policies. We want something very different.'"

Bachmann also welcomed Perry to the race.

Perry spoke before the RedState Gathering in Charleston, S.C., pledging to lower taxes and reduce business regulations, while accusing Obama of "downgrading" the economy and "our standing in the world."

Bidding for conservative votes, Perry said, "I'll promise you this: I'll work every day to try to make Washington, D.C., as inconsequential in your life as I can."

The Iowa straw poll, a fundraising tool for the state's Republican Party, focused attention on the race that officially begins with the Iowa caucuses, tentatively set for Feb. 6. That date could change depending on when other states schedule their contests.

The Republican candidates will engage in a series of debates throughout the rest of this year. Perry figures to make his debate debut on Sept. 7 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif. Candidates Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Herman Cain are also seeking the Republican presidential nomination.

Then there's the wild card. Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, the party's vice presidential nominee in 2008, says she hasn't decided whether to seek the presidency in 2012.

Obama aides and other Democrats said Bachmann's win in the Iowa straw poll — as well as a second-place finish by Paul, a former Libertarian presidential candidate — shows that the Republicans are more interested in Tea Party conservatives than in middle-class independents.

Obama campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt said, "The Republican field has doubled down in their effort to court the most ideological faction of their party, committing to end Medicare as we know it, erode Social Security and erase the investments necessary to create the jobs of the future."

Mitt's Worst Nightmare"

Romney is considered the Republican front-runner because of his fundraising lead and campaign experience. He was a runner-up to John McCain in the 2008 nomination battle.

The former Massachusetts governor is also the primary target of the Democrats, who taunted him Sunday over Perry's entry into the race.

The Democratic National Committee e-mailed a photo of the Boston Herald's front page, featuring a picture of Perry and the headline, "Mitt's Worst Nightmare." The text described the Texas governor as a "darling" of the GOP base, a "master fundraiser," and as having a "strong jobs record."

Romney, Perry and Bachmann will presumably seek the endorsement of Pawlenty, who had banked on a stronger finish in the Iowa straw poll.

Announcing his withdrawal Sunday on ABC's This Week, Pawlenty said, "The pathway forward for me doesn't really exist."

Rothenberg said he sees the Republican race unfolding in two acts during the months ahead. In Act One, Perry and Bachmann battle to become "the social conservative, Tea Party alternative" to Romney.

"Then Act Two will follow," he said.