The findings of the All India Tiger Estimation, 2018 are likely to be announced on July 29- commemorated as Global Tiger Day. While it has not been officially announced, the honours are expected to be done by none other than the Prime Minister- indicating that there may be good news finally on the tiger front.

This would be the fourth version of the quadrennial census, whose earlier versions were held in 2006, 2010 and 2014.

Prior to 2006, forest departments across the country organized a census on the basis of what was known as the pug mark methodology. The new census methodology introduced through the 2006 estimation exercise is more technology driven compared to its previous version and hence considered more authentic.

Earlier findings and what one needs to note in Census 2018:

The tiger census 2014 pegged the total number of striped big cats in the country at 2226 while the 2010 census put the figure at 1706 and the 2006 version at 1411, indicating that tiger numbers have been increasing continuously.

It is expected that the 2018 census would also record an increase, assumed to be at least 20 per cent.

The tiger is regarded as a territorial animal. In other words, a tiger needs a certain area to survive within and in fact usually resists violation of this space by other tigers.

Since the habitat available for the tiger is limited, with the quality of forests going down- logically, the forests can support only a certain number of tigers.

The number of tigers though increasing right now, will plateau at some point, unless of course the tiger adapts- something it is known to do at times- and starts living harmoniously with other tigers and co-predators and provided the landscape and adequate prey base for all tigers present.

Secondly, in the census findings, one needs to note the geographical spread of tiger population in the country. Are tigers present only in protected areas (sanctuaries and national parks) or are tigers present outside too, in what are called reserve forests, protected forests and revenue forests.

In previous census operations, data collection work could not be done in certain areas, rendered inaccessible due to conflict. This time some areas in the North East have been included while areas in Chhattisgarh that are affected by left wing extremism are still left out.

Individually, while most states in the country have been displaying an increase in numbers, Jharkhand is the only state that showed a decline in 2014 over 2010. Even Chhattisgarh with all its troubles had registered an increase.

Most southern states have been performing better in tiger management compared to north Indian states.

Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu displayed an increase in numbers while Andhra Pradesh showed a stable population. Other states with stable populations which did not register a major increase or decrease were Uttar Pradesh, Mizaram and Odisha.

The success of the southern states is in keeping with the better management of government systems in all spheres witnessed in these states, as compared to north Indian states.

Census Methodology

The tiger estimation exercise is carried out broadly in two parts. The first part involves data collection from the field. A total of more than 40,000 field staff were engaged in the exercise in an estimated 18 tiger bearing states in which signs of tiger presence, habitat, co-predator and prey base numbers, among other things are documented across landscapes.

The second part involves installation of camera traps across landscapes by trained wildlife biologists. The data is then sent to the Dehradun based Wildlife Institute of India (WII) where it is collated and the number crunching is done.

Tech Introductions

The 2018 census has been the most technologically intensive wildlife enumeration exercise ever undertaken in the country. The number of camera traps used for the data collection this time is around 15,000, up from around 9000 cameras used in the first version of the new census in 2006.

Android phone applications of M-STrIPES (Monitoring System for Tigers-Intensive Protection and Ecological Status)- a software introduced in 2010 by the National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA) has been used extensively.

The software enables data collection and analysis both. The application logs earlier findings in an area, authenticating the findings through geo tagging of photos, resulting in more accurate assessment of tiger numbers.

Technology is also being used this time to avoid replication of tiger counts, especially in landscapes that border other countries such as Nepal and Bangladesh. Also, the stripe pattern on tigers as seen in photographs of tigers from camera traps is being used to identify individual tigers. Tigers have a distinctive stripe pattern- a lot like fingerprints in human beings.

Competition between states:

Tiger numbers like other indices spawn competition between states. Madhya Pradesh had emerged as the 'tiger state' of the country in 2006 with 300 tigers. MP was closely followed by Karnataka that had 290 tigers then.

The pre-eminent position Madhya Pradesh had in 2006- with world class tiger reserves such as Kanha, Bandhavgarh and Pench in the state, was lost to Karnataka in 2010.

In the second edition of the census, Karnataka recorded 300 tigers while tiger numbers in Madhya Pradesh plummeted to 257. In 2014, Madhya Pradesh recorded 308 tigers but Karnataka zoomed ahead with 406 tigers.

Madhya Pradesh could not retain the second spot either with

Numbers are expected to increase beyond what has ever been seen in the state, mainly due to stronger protection mechanisms within reserves and management of tiger population in buffer areas of reserves and outside protected areas as well- where the surplus population usually disseminates out to.

As long as something good comes out of the competition, in terms of increasing tiger numbers, there seems to be nothing wrong with competition.

DATA: Numbers mentioned are mean population estimates

India/State------Census Year 2006------------Census Year 2010--------------Census Year 2014

India--------------------1411----------------------------------------1706----------------------------------2226

Karnataka-------------290-----------------------------------------300----------------------------------406

Madhya Pradesh-----300---------------------------------------257------------------------------------308

Uttrakhand---------------178------------------------------------------227-----------------------------------340

Rajasthan------------------32----------------------------------------------36----------------------------------45

Tamil Nadu-----------------76-------------------------------------------163---------------------------------229

Maharashtra-------------103--------------------------------------------------169------------------------190

Kerala-------------------------46-----------------------------------------------71------------------------------136

Uttar Pradesh-------------109------------------------------------------118--------------------------------117

Chhattisgarh-----------------26----------------------------------------26------------------------------------46

Jharkhand------------------Not accessed-----------------------10-----------------------------------------3+

Sunderbans--------------Not accessed----------------------------70--------------------------------76

(excluding North West Bengal)