1) Grant Williams has long been talked about as the next PJ Tucker. Not the PJ Tucker who dominated the playoffs last year, mind you, who as added several layers of perimeter skills since graduating college. Rather the PJ Tucker of Texas, who was a powerful undersized interior player who tries hard and did not have the requisite skills to stick with a team after being drafted.

2) That was fair as a freshman. It was fair last year as well. Williams jump shot was unreliable. All his self created offense was basically created eight feet and in. However, this year the early returns are in and it looks like Williams has become something else.

At this point, the 3-pointers are fool’s gold. Williams is shooting 46 percent but he’s only taken 11 in 7 games That’s okay. Notice that the form is compact. And pay attention to Williams’ mid-range jump shots and to his free throw percentage spike, up to 79 percent after being 76 percent last year and 67 percent the year before. It’s still early, but I bet based on other results from Williams, that this improvement is more real than not.

Those other shooting improvements can be seen in his 2-point percentage of 61.4 through 7 games and in the shot chart below (thanks to Will Schreefer), as well as in the tape.

Small sample, but Williams is shooting 21-for-40, or 52.5 percent, counting both short range and long range 2-point jumpers. And those jumpers look something like this one and the ones that follow.

We see the ability to clear space with his body and then raise up into a smooth shot and connect. In this next one, although closer, we see a skill that is just as important for a player who won’t be able to win off the dribble at the NBA level —the ability to hit difficult contested shots.

We like to say the best players are the ones who take the best shots. And very often that’s true. But just as often, especially recently, the best players are often the ones who just happen to be able to make shots no one else should reasonably think of taking. Kawhi Leonard, certain versions of Khris Middleton, Stephen Curry, James Harden and Kemba Walker are examples for starters. Chauncey Billups in the past is another, and one who I bring up because Grant Williams kind of seems like the college undersized interior version of Mr. Big Shot. There are others to be sure, but not many because living off of high degree of difficulty shot-making is a tough sell for most of the league, even in the NBA. But some players can and do bring considerable value in this way.

3) That’s the skill to look for this season with Williams. The rise in assists are nice, since they show what has been apparent since Williams’ freshman year (that he really knows how to play). But it’s unlikely that Williams adds super amounts of value as a passer in the NBA. Players who can’t win off the dribble rarely do, since they don’t distort the defense and create the kinds of passing lanes that open up opportunities for others. And it won’t happen for Williams either, unless he somehow finds himself playing with a player like Curry in a role similar to that of Draymond Green, in which he gets to play 4-on-3 versus opponents on the short roll. That’s not something you’re going to bank on.

4) As for defense, I’d be surprised if it wasn’t a highly positive feature of Williams game moving forward. He’s too strong, his awareness is too good and he’s too competitive for it not to be. Just listen to the answer to this question and tell me you think otherwise.

That’s the way Gary Clark would answer that question. I’m not saying that to be facetious. I’m saying that because I’ve been talking about Gary Clark since he was a freshman, and I wrote a lot last year about a large part of the reason he was a near lock to be successful, should he get opportunity, is because he was a coach’s dream— that kind of try hard, little things, take nothing for granted player that just wants to win. Grant Williams is another in that line, except he has a lot more offensive game.

Yes, he gives up three inches to Clark. That will be an issue at times for sure. But he’s also stronger than many taller players, which is sure to pay major dividends.

5) Consistent progression is a hallmark of a player who works hard. More than that, it’s a hallmark of a player whose work is able to translate into muscle memory. Many guys work with nominal improvement. We can be pretty sure that Williams not only works hard but also can improve what he wants to improve. For a player like that, we often underestimate where there game will go, simply because we can’t imagine it.

Though we can be pretty sure that there’s likely only three ways Williams will be a highly valuable offensive guy at the next level. Either he becomes 1) one of the game’s preeminent difficult shot-makers, or 2) like Otto Porter, he becomes a low usage, super high efficiency wunderkind, or 3) this last one being perhaps most unlikely, Williams suddenly, over the course of a summer, picks up movement shooting. Or I suppose, perhaps there is some combination the three

He’s not going to be a primary initiator. He’s not going to be a high usage low post guy. His game will have to evolve. The good news is that it is already evolving. If there’s a player who is likely to be undersold not do to age (he’s only 20 years old right now, being young for his class, and younger than De’Andre Hunter) but due to experience and familiarity, it’s probably Williams.

The year is young, but I’d be surprised if Williams doesn’t continue his season in stellar fashion, the way Sindarius Thornwell did two years ago (after starting gangbusters). This is not to say he’ll continue to shoot over 50 percent from mid-range or 70 percent at the rim. Both are possibilities, but not likelihoods, since some regression against better competition is likely. The similarity is that both Thornwell and Williams are incredibly strong for their size who are able to get to free throw line at will in college, a skill that likely won’t translate. The difference is that Williams has some potential credibility as a high-level shot maker and a player with touch.

The real point is that Williams looks like a definitive and easy first rounder now and perhaps that’s underselling it by a lot (I think it is as of now, i.e. If I was ranking early he’d be in the lottery without a question*). There’s no point being conservative when it’s this obvious a change made to a player’s game is real, or if not, almost certainly will be, in a year or two’s time. A jump shot makes Williams a valuable NBA player and if he becomes a difficult shot maker, perhaps much more than that.

*Obviously subject to change, but I’ve often thought of Williams as the less explosive, much more disciplined, much more likely to be very good on defense counterpart to Miles Bridges. The difference was that Miles had demonstrated marked capacity for shooting from distance and Williams had not. Williams improvements in the mid-range area of the court, however, suggest he will continue improving as he moves farther back. You can look at my past pieces (I don’t know where they would be as websites have changed names, as have I) on how mid-range 2-point shooting, and specifically unassisted mid-range 2-point shooting of the type that Williams is now demonstrating often draw a straight-line to eventual 3-point improvement (check out Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler and many others).