Apr 15, 2020

In a grim estimate, a prestigious Tehran-based research center found that up to 75% of the Iranian population could test positive for the coronavirus if isolation measures are not implemented.

The assessment by the Iranian parliament’s research center, based on Health Ministry epidemiological models, says nearly 30,000 Iranians could die of the virus if only 10% of workable containment policies are in place. The morality figure could collapse to 6,000, however, provided that 40% of social distancing restrictions are robustly observed.

The 46-page document warns that a peak in Iran could be as far away as November, when a second wave may await the population. The study evaluated the government’s current response planning as “acceptable,” unlike its “weak” handling at the outset.

Iran announced 94 new deaths April 15, marking a second day of a two-digit mortality rate. More than half of Iranian provinces are witnessing significant drops in positive cases, according to Health Ministry statistics, with confirmed daily infections falling somewhere between zero to 20.

The situation in the capital Tehran, nonetheless, remained alarming. Nahid Khodakarami, a female member of the Tehran City Council, challenged the official mortality reports, saying that in the most optimistic estimate, at least 70 people are dying on a daily basis in Tehran. She said the discrepancy was because “acute respiratory symptom” is the official cause for many COVID-19 deaths.