Get the day's biggest City stories delivered straight to your inbox Subscribe Thank you for subscribing We have more newsletters Show me See our privacy notice Invalid Email

With Manchester City sitting 22 points adrift of Premier League leaders Liverpool, Pep Guardiola looks set for a summer rebuild.

Last season’s treble winners look set to lose their league crown to the Merseysiders in the coming weeks, and Guardiola will no doubt be eager to reconstruct his side to reclaim the title again next season.

As part of the rebuild process, it was reported that as many as seven City squad players could be at risk of being sold in the summer.

This list includes John Stones, Benjamin Mendy, Leroy Sane, Gabriel Jesus, Joao Cancelo, Nicolas Otamendi and Claudio Bravo whose contract ends in the summer.

But of that list, who should City retain and who should they move on, based on their current performance levels?

John Stones

Stones was an integral part of Guardiola’s side in the 18 months following his arrival in the summer of 2016.

However, mainly as a result of injuries and faltering form, he has never truly cemented a consistent role across a full season within City’s defence since.

Interestingly, looking at the data alone Stones actually ranks as one of the league’s top defenders. Of the 69 centre-backs who have played over 800 league minutes this season, he ranks second for the highest success rate in defensive duels, 15th for success in aerial duels and first for pass success rate.

(Image: Manchester City FC via Getty Images)

However, he suffers from flaws in areas that are hard to quantify in numbers - such as positioning and concentration. This explains why Guardiola will often leave him out of the starting 11.

Based on the above, it’s difficult to gauge what level Stones should be playing at, but his game seems too flawed to be a success at City.

Benjamin Mendy

Having been plagued by injuries, Mendy has suffered a stop-start career at the Etihad. This has given Guardiola multiple selection headaches and often forced him to shoehorn other players into the left-back position.

Yet, even when the French international has been fit he hasn’t really produced his best form on a consistent basis. So far this season he has managed just one assist and has a combined Expected Assist (xA) total of just 0.13 per 90. That average ranks well in the division, but is still only on par with the likes of Aston Villa’s Matt Targett.

Sometimes, an underrated appealing aspect of a players game is their ability to stay fit for the length of a campaign. Given that Mendy has struggled with this, and isn’t producing any remarkable form, it’s easy to see why City could look elsewhere in the summer.

Gabriel Jesus

Jesus has been forced to play second-fiddle to Sergio Aguero for the bulk of this season, and most of his City career so far.

Despite this, he can still boast an impressive total of nine league goals for the season - only five Premier League players can boast a better return when you break that figure down to goals per 90.

As demonstrated in the graphic below, he also continues to get himself into good positions in and around the penalty area. However, with a league xG of 13.07, Jesus looks to actually be underperforming in front of goal, converting fewer chances than would be expected.

The above is one of the reasons why questions still remain as to whether he can be Aguero’s long-term successor.

Leroy Sane

Sane’s campaign looked over before it started, having picked up a serious knee ligament injury in the Community Shield in August.

Despite not always making the starting XI, the German international highlighted himself as an excellent dribbler who could both score and create goals. He recorded eight league assists and scored ten goals. However, impressively, he scored those ten goals from an xG of just 5.63 - this highlights him as a very accurate finisher.

Whilst injury has hit this season, he is a top talent and still just 24 so City would therefore be wise to keep Sane at all costs in the summer but will have to fend off serious interest from Bayern Munich.

Claudio Bravo

Bravo was signed to be Guardiola’s no.1 initially, yet Ederson’s arrival after his first season relegated him to No.2. However, due to injuries and suspensions to Ederson, the Chilean international has been relied upon more than would have been expected this season.

This has led him to feature in some big games for City, notably the meeting with Liverpool at Anfield earlier this season. However, based on the data available, the 36-year-old has performed at a below-average level when he has been called upon.

Liverpool have faced similar issues with their no.1 Allison missing key points of their season through injury, yet their no.2 Adrian came in and performed at a decent level, giving the Merseysiders the edge during these moments of adversity.

(Image: Twenty3)

Whilst Bravo conceded fewer goals, his xG highlights that an average keeper would have been expected to concede around ten goals based on the chances he faced, rather than 14. Adrian, on the other hand, conceded 18 goals but performed in line with his xG of 18.53. The Spanish keeper also made notably more saves per 90 than the City man.

The above highlights the importance of having a no.2 capable of coming in and performing at an average level at very least, otherwise you risk handing a marginal advantage to your rivals, like City have with Liverpool this season.

For this reason, you can expect Guardiola to strengthen this position in the summer.

Joao Cancelo

It may be too soon to write Cancelo off given he has managed just 749 minutes of Premier League action. His unremarkable performances within that short sample size don’t do him any favours though.

To date, he isn’t excelling in the defensive aspects of the game or the attacking ones either, having failed to register an assist and having posted a combined xA of just 0.73.

Given that he cost £60million, there will be a disappointment that he has failed to dislodge Kyle Walker from right-back, or pose enough pressure to his starting position. It would be understandable if City chose to cut their losses on this one in the summer if the right offer presents itself.

Nicolas Otamendi

Due to the injury sustained to Aymeric Laporte, City have been forced to play Fernandinho - a midfielder - in defence for the bulk of the season, yet it’s his regular defensive partner Otamendi that has often been branded as the weak link in the side. Analysis of his numbers this season exhibits why this may be the case.

From the same 69-player sample referenced earlier when assessing Stones, Otamendi ranks 59th for defensive duels won and 45th for aerial duels won. He ranks behind only Stones in terms of his pass success rate but his faults in other aspects of the game make him a problem for Guardiola.

Given he is performing at a below-average level, it would probably be best for both parties if he moved away from the Etihad in the summer.