Does Melbourne's $50-billion suburban rail loop risk eating up 'a generation's worth of spending'?

Updated

It was a $50-billion surprise announcement that would shake up Melbourne's train network — an ambitious 90-kilometre-long rail loop linking major commercial, residential and educational hubs in Melbourne's suburbs.

But the project, announced on Facebook in August, was such a surprise that almost no planning experts had even heard of the idea.

It was not on Infrastructure Victoria's to-do list or on the radar of its federal counterpart, Infrastructure Australia.

"First reaction was big surprise," recalled Professor Graham Currie, from Monash University's Public Transport Research Group.

"We need planning … we don't need political announcements."

While Labor's announcement raised eyebrows in planning circles, it was an instant hit with the public.

The phone lines at ABC Radio Melbourne lit up with overwhelming support for the idea.

"Very one-sided," presenter Rafael Epstein recalled.

"I tried to raise questions about process, about planning, about independent people inside government running a ruler over it.

"But it was overwhelmingly just, 'We love this idea'."

There was another issue few talkback callers discussed: the price tag.

Yet that is exactly the issue commuters should be considering, according to Marion Terrill, who is the transport guru for the Grattan Institute think-tank.

"$50 billion is an incredible sum of money," Ms Terrill said.

"That's $10,000 for every man, woman and child in Melbourne. It's a generation's worth of spending.

"This would be an unbelievably expensive project for Melbourne and push out into the very long-term distance any other kind of transport infrastructure projects that are more pressing."

Many experts anticipate the project may cost even more than $50 billion.

Labor plans to spend $300 million on a business plan just to see how the rail loop stacks up.

It is also hopeful the Federal Government or private sector might chip in.

The Federal Opposition recently pledged $300 million to help start the project, if it wins the next federal election.

"It's really important that the benefits to the community outweigh the costs," Ms Terrill said.

"Otherwise, don't build it.

"Projects that are announced prematurely, and I would argue that this has been announced prematurely, are very prone to cost overruns.

"The average cost overrun is about 25 per cent. It's billions of dollars we're talking about here."

Melbourne's train network is designed to take people in and out of the city.

It does not easily allow commuters to change train lines, unlike the complex spider-web designs of London, Tokyo, or Hong Kong.

The suburban rail loop is intended to change that.

But Ms Terrill said there was no evidence that Melburnians need a heavy, expensive rail loop connecting the outer parts of the city.

"Most jobs are dispersed through the suburbs," Ms Terrill said.

"The unfortunate reality is that most people are not going around the outer rim of the city in any great numbers as would warrant a heavy rail link."

Build it and they will come?

Melbourne's population is expected to surge from 5 million to 8 million over the next three decades.

"By 2050, Melbourne will be the same size as London today," Professor Currie said.

"We have no choice but to rely on public transport for access throughout our city as London does now."

But Melbourne has a long way to go before that is a reality, Professor Currie warned.

"Melbourne currently has 200 trains. London has well over 600."

While critical of the lack of planning, Professor Currie now believes the suburban rail loop is just the ticket to transform Melbourne into London, as it would entice businesses to relocate to the suburbs and create alternative business districts.

In other words: build it and they will come.

"That's the type of change in a city you need to be a London and that's why this project is big enough to create that effect," Professor Currie said.

"The selection of the activity centres was quite carefully done — those are booming areas outside Melbourne."

Interchanging rail projects

The suburban rail loop is the third major rail project commitment from the Andrews Government.

The Metro Tunnel project, which costs $11 billion, will run trains from Pakenham and Cranbourne to Sunbury through a tunnel that will also include new stations at North Melbourne, Parkville and the Shrine of Remembrance.

Melbourne Airport is also set to be connected by rail, with the Federal and Victorian Governments committed to contribute $5 billion each to the project.

But other projects that were popular ideas little more than an election cycle ago, including the Doncaster and Rowville rail lines, no longer dominate the transport infrastructure debate.

Melbourne Metro 2, which would run from Clifton Hill to Parkville to Southern Cross before continuing west to Wyndham Vale, has also lost momentum.

Infrastructure Victoria has recommended that project as one option to relieve congestion in the north and provide public transport to the state's largest urban renewal project, Fishermans Bend.

"It's something that can be started quite quickly and started in parallel to Melbourne Metro 1," said Dr John Stone, a lecturer in transport planning at the University of Melbourne.

"The inner city is going to require more heavy rail to make it functional."

Then there are less developed ideas, such as Metro Tunnel 3, which would run from Tullamarine Airport to Southern Cross before shooting east.

Map enthusiasts have long argued for a range of alternative lines, including orbital rail loops at a 5km and 15km radius.





Dr Stone believes the positive response to the suburban rail loop shows the public wants good public transport for the suburbs.

"[It] gives the Government a mandate to improve public transport in the suburbs," Dr Stone said.

"For a long time, we've seen governments say the solution is big roads in the suburbs, and this shows that there's a mandate for an alternative."

Heavy rail, big costs

But even if the State Government has a mandate to greatly expand Melbourne's rail network, it would be hampered by one harsh reality: the price tag.

Dr Stone argues cross suburban rail links can be achieved for much less if the Government uses lighter rail options.

"[Heavy rail] is much more expensive to build," Dr Stone said.

"Huge long stations 250 metres long, you can't go up and down hills as easily, so you can't put your tunnels on steeper inclines."

But Dr Stone is not advocating for more trams on Melbourne's already congested roads.

Rather, he wants Melbourne to take a leaf from international cities.

Berlin has the U-Bahn, which is effectively an underground tram network, Tokyo has a monorail, and Vancouver has the SkyTrain.

Each system has smaller capacity, but runs regular, nimbler services.

"You can get more vehicles for the same amount of money," Dr Stone said.

"You can run services every two or three minutes instead of every five or 10.

"Those are the ones we need to investigate before we lock ourselves into taking our old heavy rail system and thinking that's the only solution for Melbourne."

Have we lost the ability to plan?

Dr Stone argues a lot more can be achieved if the State Government plans a comprehensive network rather than jumping from one individual project to the next.

Matters of State Is the $50-billion rail plan worth it?

Melbourne may soon be the size of London. But while London has the Tube, Melbourne does not. So do tens of billions need to be spent to get everyone around? About



Melbourne may soon be the size of London. But while London has the Tube, Melbourne does not. So dobillions need to be spent to get everyone around?

"Melbourne really has gone down the path where we've pulled projects out of the air," Dr Stone said.

"We did it with East West Link, we did it with the West Gate Tunnel — that appeared moments after the last election with the backing from [private toll road operator] Transurban.

"We end up spending more money than we need to, and we don't get the projects that we need.

"To actually turn the vision into something really good for Melbourne takes a lot of hard work and a lot of honest debate."

And if $50 billion sounds expensive for a suburban rail loop, Dr Stone estimates Victoria will spend at least double that over the same period on major road projects.

"Most cities have to think very clearly about whether they want public transport to be the major mover of people or whether they want cars.

"We've tried cars for 50 years and we keep making the problem worse and worse."

Topics: government-and-politics, elections, state-elections, states-and-territories, rail-transport, melbourne-3000, vic

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