New NBA draft seasons bring with them new frameworks. Like snowflakes, no two NBA drafts are the same. Some, like 2018, is loaded with talent. Some, like 2019, featured a dearth of top end talent, but one generational prospect. The 2020 NBA Draft is different from both, as, for the first time in a while, the top of the draft is murky.

Zion Williamson was 2019’s undisputed prodigal son. It was Luka Doncic in 2018 (though the mainstream painted others at the top and the draft cognoscenti were correct in their staunch reverence of Luka) and Markelle Fultz in 2017. A defining feature of the 2020 draft seems to be an absence of a true tier I prospect (Zion, Luka, Anthony Davis), but a host of very good ones.

As such, the status of the number one pick is unknown. Based on an evaluation of the class, it doesn’t seem like there will be a clear frontrunner for the number one pick. Of course, that could change in an instant, but truly special talent doesn’t materialize out of thin air.

Throughout the summer, we’ll take an in-depth look at the candidates for 2020’s throne, starting with Georgia commit and lead guard Anthony Edwards, the fourth best recruit per RSCI. We’re diving deep into his game so to not waste any more time rambling, let’s get into the breakdown.

Self Creation

Any analysis of Edwards has to begin with his elite physical profile and athletic tools. Standing 6-foot-5 with a reported 6-foot-8 wingspan with a chiseled figure, Edwards has an elite frame for a lead guard. His height, length and strength are ideal for a modern initiator prospect. He’s also one of the youngest prospects in this class, still 17 until August.

Edwards is a 99th percentile elite athlete, not on the level of Zion, but in a tier just below. With gunpowder in his veins, Edwards is ready to explode at a moment’s notice, lending to an elite slashing game. Not many at Edwards’ size boast his first step, where he shoots himself out of a cannon on his way to the rim (check the absurd hangtime on this play as well):

Few defenders can hang with Edwards’ straight-line speed and violent, powerful explosion from a standstill, leading to countless blowbys:

Jogging up the court, Edwards dribbles between his legs, flicks on nitrous and barrels to the rim for a thunderous slam:

More than a flammable bundle of tools, Edwards’ craftiness as a slasher makes him deadly attacking the rim. While his handle isn’t refined, he is technically strong attacking the rim, wielding his physical tools and athletic prowess like a seasoned veteran. In traffic, Edwards’ handle is loose and he struggles to make advanced moves under pressure:

Like Manu Ginobili with rockets in his shoes (creds to @rolNBA for that one), Edwards’ combines his powerful movement with an advanced understanding of how to evade defenders on his way to the tin. He loves this push ahead cross to change directions, then whips out a filthy euro step to finish:

The defense initially wins here, the hedge forcing Edwards away from his driving path. Edwards resets, selling his defender with a subtle head fake before planting his back foot and exploding into the lane. He hop-steps through traffic, finding open space:

Edwards loves freezing dropping bigs in their tracks with quick in and out dribbles attacking downhill. With his change of speed and explosion in a straight line, this move is near impossible to guard for most big men:

Again, Edwards attacks off of the catch, the head fake and planting his foot to explode showing off his driving technique, before busting out his snake cross for an easy layup:

In these past clips, Edwards missed his fair share of bunnies at the rim, which is a recurring issue with his game. This quirk, along with his free throw shooting (58.3 percent in eight UAA games, 36 FTA), makes his touch questionable.

Edwards is a power finisher, not a touch finisher. His tools allow him to get in closer proximity to the rim where he needs less touch to finish. Because of this, there may not be too much cause for concern about Edwards as a finisher, even if he has a poor touch.

Synergy has Edwards at 60 percent at the rim on 70 attempts, which is great. When Edwards needs to finish through contact away from the rim or using touch, though, he struggles to get the ball in the net:

Despite his poor touch and free throw shooting, Edwards has shown himself to be an excellent three-point shooter. In eight UAA games, he shot 45.1 percent from deep on 51 total attempts. Synergy has him in the 58th percentile on three-point jumpers in the half court, at 32.6 percent (remember, almost everyone has heavily deflated three-point efficiency in high school). His mechanics are fluid, his release is high and he is comfortable pulling up in a variety of situations:

Edwards flashes the ability to separate for his pull-up, which, if he could harness with even semi consistency, would make him a nuclear offensive weapon:

With his slashing and projectable pull-up shooting, Edwards looks to be a high-level self creator, capable of shooting at the rim whenever he wants and hopefully working with an off dribble jumper as well. He is the definition of rim gravity and he’ll hopefully be able to build the rest of his offense off of it.

Passing/Feel

Anthony Edwards’ feel for the game is his biggest swing skill at this point and the largest wart on his overall profile. As a decision maker, Edwards is fairly weak at this point. Feel and decision making are crucial for primaries who are non-elite shot makers (even for primaries who are) and at this point, it is unclear if Edwards passes the necessary threshold here.

In Edwards’ favor, he did boast an impressive 1.5 assist to turnover ratio in UAA and had some impressive passing flashes. Here’s his best pass I have seen, showing off his impressive lateral evasion before skipping to the weak corner. These skip passes are vital to unlocking open shots at the NBA level and are a good predictor for high-level feel. As a big initiator, Edwards should be able to find these with some consistency:

Given Edwards’ on-ball gravity penetrating, he’s shown some ability and awareness finding open teammates when eyes lock onto him:

For every great pass by Edwards, there are five bad passes, difficult shots and missed reads. He’s a basic passer at this point, without the ability to make any complicated passes or notice complex reads on the move. Edwards misses the wide open weak corner:

When the strong corner defender helps one pass away, Edwards doesn’t make him pay:

Edwards locks into his target, lofting the ball into traffic and turning it over with a shooter wide open in the corner:

And a careless turnover:

Edwards loves long pull-ups early in the shot clock and while I like his confidence to shoot these high leverage shots, the decision making as a whole is poor and he’d be better off refraining in most situations:

If Edwards’ feel ends up being catastrophic, he might not have enough self-creation juice to be a truly valuable initiator, damning him to be a player who is always overpaid due to inefficient volume scoring. However, there are enough flashes to provide some, if minimal confidence in Edwards’ passing and this is what most are excited to watch him do at Georgia.

Defense

We’ll start with the good here, being Edwards’ potential as an on-ball defender. Given his frame, lateral quickness and strength, Edwards has the profile of an elite on-ball defender. When he’s engaged, Edwards is difficult to gain ground on.

Watch how quick his feet are here, forcing the ballhandler backward:

His hands are quick and he has a penchant for on-ball swipes, often resulting in awe-inspiring dunks:

The issue comes with Edwards’ engagement: He is one of the lowest effort, lowest feel defenders I have scouted. Edwards will hound ballhandlers at times, but all the offense needs to do is throw a screen at him and Edwards will stop trying. A perfect microcosm of Edwards’ defense, he begins the play engaged on ball and swarms the ballhandler. Once the attacker beats Edwards, his engine shuts off:

A simple pick deterring a man as jacked as Edwards is as silly as a green rock incapacitating Superman:

I understand Edwards was the lone superstar on his high school team (less so against UAA competition), but his defensive effort is simply unacceptable, on and off of the ball. Far too many of his possessions are spent loafing off of the ball, like a kid daydreaming in the outfield:

Edwards has a nasty habit of reaching on the perimeter as a substitution for actual defense:

To be fair to Edwards, his team defense was a smidge better in UAA when he wasn’t the lone source of offense. Still, it went from all-time horrible to regular awful. I had this play noted as a positive in my notes; even though Edwards was late tagging on the roll, I was flabbergasted he moved off of the ball:

Though an astute playmaker could have made Edwards pay with a lift to the weak wing, he does a nice job helping on this drive here:

With Edwards’ tools, there’s potential for him to impact the game as a secondary rim protector, here swatting this layup in transition:

Edwards has the tools to become positive on the defensive end in time and his flashes of passing feel give some hope he’s a better team defender than he’s letting on. At this point, the outlook on Edwards’ defense is pessimistic, but he’ll have a chance to show he can defend this season at Georgia

Conclusion

Edwards’ physical tools and slashing craft alone make him a strong case to be the number one pick in the 2020 draft. He is tailor-made as a modern big initiator with his special athleticism and rim gravity and volume. It seems like he’s going to shoot pull-ups as well, completing a strong scoring package for a number one option.

His passing is concerning; if Edwards’ passing is atrocious throughout the season, he’s likely not good enough as a scorer to provide massive initiator value. And if he doesn’t defend at all, Edwards will need a ton of offense to make up for it.

At this point, Edwards is an upside play, but the draft is about upside. Zooming out to a macro level, few players have Edwards’ combination of physical tools, slashing craft and projectable pull-up jumper.

Given he’s still 17 years old and given his special traits, one can confidently rank Edwards number one at this point, despite all of his major shortcomings.