The global economy has lost steam, with activity increasingly concentrated in major Asia nations. Aging populations drag on growth and public finances. Living standards have improved - unless a trade war changes all that.

Welcome to 2060, as seen by the OECD. It's drawn out how the world will look if policy and institutional settings remain largely the same, and how it might be transformed by investment, innovation, or rising protectionism.

One of its alternative scenarios is an undoing of trade liberalisation -- a growing possibility now that a spat between the US and China continues to escalate.

That would reverse a trend that has ushered in decades of labor-efficiency growth and supply-chain integration across countries. Returning to average tariff rates from 1990 could depress long-run global living standards by at least 14 per cent by 2060, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development says.