For what feels like nearly the first time all season, the Raptors roster has been nearly completely healthy of late, and the shooting has come back to life in the last two games, propelling them to a victory over the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday night. However, that one, like many recent victories, felt harder than it had to for Toronto, a team near the top of the league, facing off against a Dallas team likely to be in the lottery, leading to concern among many Raptors fans about the team and where they would be heading into the playoffs.

The one caveat there is the gap between a roster that’s nearly intact and one that is fully intact, and at present, the difference between the two for Toronto is the very large presence of Jonas Valanciunas, still out after dislocating his thumb against the Golden State Warriors on December 12th. With Raptors fans and media, Valanciunas has long been a complicated subject, both over and undervalued depending on the moment and who you ask, and this season, with the emergence Serge Ibaka as a center, his minutes had become more limited, but Valanciunas had been extremely effective within the minutes given to him, and the roster hasn’t been able to adequately replace his presence since the injury. Nick Nurse went to Greg Monroe for the majority of games, but of late has had to go away from that in the second halves of games, with the defense suffering with Monroe on the court, and against Dallas cut Monroe’s minutes almost entirely.

So the question becomes, what does Jonas Valanciunas give to the Raptors roster, in a way that can’t be replaced, and what can Raptors fans expect him to bring when he returns?

The easy answer here, and the first one that comes to mind, is that Jonas is a player who can be relied upon to get buckets. He’s an efficient post presence who is putting up 24.5 points per 36 minutes this season on 63.9% true shooting, with him able to create his own offense, and force the defense to adjust to that ability, in the paint, which in turn opens up space for the guys around him. Although JV isn’t shooting that frequently from midrange this season, he has that aspect to his game too, and over the last two seasons has become a threat from three-point range as well, which has forced opposing big men to make tough decisions when he has an opportunity to take one.

Even on the offensive end though, Jonas’ own scoring is only part of the puzzle. The other part of his impact is that Jonas is the Raptors’ best, and possibly only big, roll threat. While Serge Ibaka sets solid screens and is a nice presence in the pick-and-pop, where he’s been able to score effectively all season, he doesn’t have the same threat on the roll, and that allows opponents to focus on taking away the ballhandler more. Both Kyle Lowry and Kawhi Leonard have historically created a lot of their most efficient offense in the pick and roll, and Lowry in particular has benefited from the presence of Jonas over the last two seasons. This season, with JV on the floor, Lowry’s effective field goal percentage jumps to an impressive 62.1%, versus 47% with him off, and last season there was a similar effect, with him at 59.2% with Jonas and 49.2% without him. While Lowry’s scoring hasn’t been where it needs to be of late, and the reasons for that are more complicated than simply the absence of the Lithuanian big man, bringing him back into the fold should help him re-establish his effectiveness.

For Kawhi, as well, teams have started to load up on him late in games to take away his offense and force other guys to beat them, and they’ve found mixed levels of success doing so, due to Kawhi finding ways to beat even tough coverage, but having a big presence who can screen for him and be a threat of his own in the paint can only help things in those situations. As well, the Raptors peripheral players benefit from Valanciunas being out there with both Lowry and Leonard, as those three players eat up a lot of defensive attention that can lead to open shots for other guys and other opportunities.

However, the larger impact of Valanciunas’ impact, and the one less often discussed, is on the defensive end. Valanciunas is a large presence in the paint who can protect the rim, and who eats up defensive boards, allowing the team to contain opponents’ second chance opportunities, something that has been an issue of late. While he can sometimes be attacked in the pick and roll, the Raptors’ perimeter defense has been better this season which has allowed them to limit the possessions where Valanciunas has to be covering for mistakes made by other players, and kept him playing within his game defensively.

Prior to Jonas’ injury, the Raptors ranked 4th in the league in opponent’s percentage within the restricted area, at 59.6%, on just 28.4 attempts per game(10th fewest in the league), and in the paint, outside the restricted area, ranked 8th lowest in percentage at 38.2%, giving up 15.9 attempts per game. Since his injury, in the restricted area, attempts have gone up to 31.4 per game and the percentage has gone up to 61.3%. While attempts outside the restricted area have dropped to 13.5 per game, potentially due to some of those shifting to the higher percentage restricted area attempts, percentage has gone significantly up to 47.3% on those attempts, the second highest in the league. The Raptors simply don’t have a large body to throw at opposing big men when the matchup calls for it, and that’s allowed teams to attack Toronto in the paint with a high degree of success, which has lead to other defensive breakdowns elsewhere.

Now, some might point out that there has been some regression for Serge Ibaka in the last two months as well, which has contributed to these cascading issues on the defensive end, and that would be a correct assumption, but even there, that may be at least partially linked to the absence of JV. With Jonas out and Monroe unable to fill the void, Ibaka has been frequently called upon to play more minutes than he’d normally be asked to give, and in situations where he wouldn’t normally be called upon. This takes a toll on him when he has to play a more physical game, on top of the individual matchups he’s not suited for. Having Valanciunas back returns Ibaka to playing the role he’s most comfortable in and allows the Raptors to rest him more often, keeping him fresh and at his best more often.

The remaining question, then, is about how the Raptors use JV and whether they go to him when the situation calls for it, and that’s a big one. In the weeks prior to his injury, Jonas had been starting less frequently as Nurse seemed to be settling on Ibaka as the long-term starter and Jonas’ role looked to be buoying a struggling bench, where he was playing away from the team’s stars, and less effective. Since then, the bench has come a fair ways with Norman Powell and CJ Miles showing signs of returning to form, and Fred VanVleet settling into his role more. Still, Valanciunas helps Lowry and Leonard play at their best, and those minutes need to be used and are important for the team to find their ceiling. In past seasons, Valanciunas has at times been the scapegoat for issues with the team that aren’t always attributable to him, and that’s something the Raptors need to avoid moving towards their playoff run. There are matchups better suited to Ibaka, and there will be situations where the Raptors’ best option isn’t Jonas, but those situations are also improved if Jonas is available for other minutes.

At the end of the day, the numbers make it clear that JV is an important asset for this Raptors team at both ends of the court, and his absence leaves a large hole in the rotation. For a team that has struggled to provide healthy minutes this season across the roster, he’s the last missing piece right now, but he’s not one that can be replicated elsewhere.