What else could we do?

The Parliamentary Budget Officer has also looked into what it would take for Canada to meet its target, and modelled a higher carbon tax that would apply to a wider swath of industrial emissions than what is currently in place. Under the current carbon pricing plan, there is a federal fuel charge and a separate emissions-based levy on industries.

Navius’s projection took the current system into account, and their analysis suggests Canada needs a multi-pronged approach that addresses emissions in a wide range of sectors, beyond what people might normally consider.

"There’s always a challenge with policy, because most people think about the types of emissions that they themselves produce," said Jotham Peters, senior partner at Navius Research. "But a lot of people don’t think about all the emissions that might originate from something else that they don’t think about on a regular basis."

For instance, about a quarter of Canada's emissions come from the oil and gas industry. Policies like a more stringent clean fuel standard would lower emissions from buildings, transportation and the oil and gas sector, and would help get Canada to its target.

But Peters said that policymakers have to consider the knock-on effects of ramping up certain regulations. If a policy imposes too many costs on a particular industry, for example, companies could relocate to another country.

Policies need to be acceptable to the public, said David Layzell, an energy systems researcher at the University of Calgary. His research looks at transforming entire systems, such as transportation, to not only cut emissions but make them more efficient.

Layzell said that a carbon tax is a good start, but won’t offer the transformative change that is required to meet the Paris goals. He believes it's about designing infrastructure (like public transit) so that it becomes more desirable to use than the current option (personal vehicles) — and reduces overall emissions in the process.

"People don't like change, typically," said Layzell. "But when the change is something that they find is more convenient, it’s more comfort, a better quality of life — they go for it."

The 109-megatonne challenge

Navius's analysis shows that even if it abides by the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change, Canada will miss its 2030 emissions target by 109 megatonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent (CO2e).

Inspired by the CO2 Cube, a public art project by Millennium ART that appeared at the COP15 climate conference in Copenhagen in 2009, the map below shows how much volume 109 Mt of CO2 actually takes up.

Use the drop-down menu or click on different locations on the map to move the cube and visualize the size of our emissions challenge.