Insider: Want Kevin Wilson fired? Be careful what you ask for

BLOOMINGTON — The level of rage streaming out of Indiana's football fan base reached a new high after last weekend's 55-52 home loss to Rutgers, but let's take a closer look at the state of the program before declaring the sky has fallen .

This week's bowl projections still find believers in the Hoosiers -- ESPN and Sports Illustrated are both on board. CBS Sports and SB Nation aren't as bullish.

Fan frustration is understandable. Indiana's road to the postseason is a lot more complicated now. The Hoosiers need two wins from a remaining schedule that includes three ranked teams (Michigan State, Iowa, Michigan) in succession and then a pair of road games (Maryland and Purdue) that, while winnable, will be tricky. IU hasn't won a road game in the Big Ten since 2012.

But that doesn't guarantee a seismic shift inside IU's administrative offices when it comes to the football program.

Athletics director Fred Glass gave coach Kevin Wilson a seven-year contract when he hired him, and Glass has consistently referred back to that contract as a symbol of his commitment to a long building project. As recently as late August, Glass stood his ground, calling IU's football program "a big battleship to turn around."

There are legitimate criticisms of Wilson's tenure. His defenses have routinely struggled, despite recruiting improvement and staff turnover. His six Big Ten wins in four-plus years match the same number his predecessor, Bill Lynch, managed in four seasons. And despite a 4-0 start this fall, the Hoosiers' bowl hopes, though alive, are certainly precarious.

Still, those advocating for Wilson's removal — probably in part based on the emotion of Saturday's loss — might be wise to reconsider for a handful of reasons:

• It's hard to deny Wilson has turned IU football into a more competitive product. Indiana has improved its recruiting and overall talent level, thanks to a combination of significant facilities upgrades and better investment in staffing across the board.

• Consider the landscape. Illinois and Maryland are already hiring new coaches. There will probably be at least 2-3 other schools that, come December, will do the same. All will be picking from the same talent pool that Indiana hypothetically would, and a seller's market can be a dangerous place.

• Remember that Glass doubled the amount of money available to hire both Wilson and his assistants in 2010, and he's poured even more money into the program since. Indiana's revenues have exploded in recent years, but with basketball, football and volleyball/wrestling facilities projects all part of the near-term plan, can the department afford another large spending increase, without the guarantee of commensurate returns?

• Lastly, and most importantly, Glass isn't wrong: It's a tough job.

The program lacks a natural recruiting base. It is surrounded on three sides, geographically, by powerhouse programs and conferences. And whatever you might think about the five coaches Indiana has employed since Bill Mallory's departure, one bowl berth in 22 years is much more reflective of institutional constraints than individual ability.

Glass is right to preach patience. Should IU miss out on the postseason this winter, however, that patience will be tested.

Next season is the sixth year of Wilson's seven-year deal; IU needs to make a decision on his future. Extend him or move on. Sending a coach into the last two years of a contract is like strapping weights around his ankles and wrists and asking him to swim faster.

IU's program as presently constituted is flawed. And in year five, it's possible that 25-point collapse, the biggest comeback of the season, could cost the Hoosiers a bowl berth.

But Indiana is also an exceedingly difficult place to win. I'd argue only two men have done it consistently in the past 75 years. So while there's no denying the frustration of last weekend, a knee-jerk reaction might be the worst kind at this point.

Follow Star reporter Zach Osterman on Twitter: @ZachOsterman.