Shripal Shah

Opinion contributor

Only in Washington can people argue that doing something the public hates is better than not doing it. But that's where we are with the post-game analysis of the tax fight, where a historically unpopular president teamed up with a historically unpopular Republican Congress to pass a historically unpopular bill that further rigs the economy for the rich at everyone else's expense.

Anyone who thinks this bill will improve the Republican Party’s electoral prospects is ignoring history and common sense. In reality, 2018 just went from bad to worse for the GOP thanks to Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump.

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The dynamic playing out now should remind everyone of what happened to Democrats in 2010. Though the policy ramifications could not be further apart, the political implications are strikingly similar. I remember it well, because I had a front-row seat at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. After beating back Republican challenges in consecutive special elections, we lost a special Senate election in a solidly blue state when Massachusetts elected Scott Brown.

The backdrop for that election was the Obamacare debate, which Democrats lost in the court of public opinion. We pushed it through, however, and we were right to do so, because our party believes in expanding access to affordable, quality health insurance. In retrospect, it illustrates a perfect contrast of priorities. But we didn't escape political consequences.

Back then, like Republicans now, we thought we could weather the backlash from voters. We believed that once people began to benefit from the policy changes and became better educated about the Affordable Care Act, they would come around. We just had to sell it.

We were wrong. We got beat in November of 2010 — badly, and in large part due to backlash to the new health law.

The same wave of backlash is coming for Republicans in 2018, only the data suggest this one is on track to be worse. The generic ballot is already favoring Democrats by double digits. Approval ratings for Congress and Trump continue to sink. Enthusiasm is off the charts on our side and depressed on theirs. And the GOP just lost a Senate seat in Alabama, one of the reddest states in the country, in part due to Democratic enthusiasm, depressed Republican turnout, and an unpopular tax bill as the backdrop.

What did the GOP do in response to that loss? They rushed through that bill, a scam that most of America is against. Now they’re hoping for the best.

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In the coming days, Republicans will say they just have to sell the public on the plan. Of course, they’re wrong, because it’s too late. Not only is public opposition to this plan cemented, but their party also doesn’t have a credible messenger to change minds. McConnell, Ryan and Trump are three of the least popular politicians in the country. The idea that they can shift public sentiment is silly.

They’ll argue that once Americans start to benefit from the bill, they’ll come around. That also ignores reality, as a negligible change in a paycheck is more likely to go unnoticed. And that’s before people are hit with higher health care costs, which will create anger rather than goodwill.

They’ll also argue that the pending big money ad campaigns will have an outsized impact. But $70 million already has been spent on that effort so far with little to show for it. Hardly anyone is buying what the GOP is selling.

Add it all together and you have an electoral environment that was already toxic for the GOP, an unpopular bill that was forced upon the country, and a lot of ineffective spin.

The 2010 parallels are striking, and the Republicans ignoring them do so at their own peril. As someone who has been on the receiving end of a wave, I say this with certainty: thanks to this tax scam, 2018 just got a lot more daunting for Republicans trying to keep control of Congress. They have no one to blame but themselves.

Shripal Shah, a Democratic strategist, is vice president of the super PAC American Bridge 21st Century. Follow him on Twitter: @shripal734