Yikes, looks like we're going to have to get that banner changed sometime. Sadly, sixteen players have been eliminated from the WCS Europe Premier League, including high finishers from last tournament such as TLO, DIMAGA and ForGG. But the defending champion still carries on, looking to take his second consecutive WCS Europe title.In pursuit of that goal,must feel good about drawing a soft group. 'Soft' is a relative term here, as Ret, Grubby, and HasuObs would be considered some very undesirable groupmates for most European competitors. But they're not the biggest threats Mvp could face on his road to back to back titles. MMA, a bitter rival since 2011, is off in Group C. Stephano, the runner-up of the previous season, was drawn into Group B. MC, the master of all-ins, is away in Group D. In comparison, the trio of players in Group A can't help but seem easier.However, StarCraft II is a game with a significant amount of variance, so there's no guarantee that Mvp is going to make it out of this group, palatable as it may be.There's one quirk in Mvp's play that makes me think he could be particularly vulnerable: he likes to take risks regardless of the caliber of his opponent. A lot of people will tell you that the superior player should always play as safe and standard as possible, and just try to outplay his opponent in regular macro games. Flash did that amazingly well in Brood War, while players like INnoVation and Rain have had some success with this approach in SC2 as well. On the other hand, Mvp generally doesn't mind doing risky things against supposedly 'lesser' opponents – he notably used some marine-tank builds to topple SaSe last WCS. On the other hand, sometimes his risks just don't pay off, like when Scarlett took a map off LG-IM in the GSTL by perfectly countering Mvp's blue-flame hellion build.So, as we look at the Europeans in the group, I'll list a few ways the games could play out that might see them topple the champ.may have a career winning record against Mvp, but in HotS he's probably going to get worn down by Mvp's MMM in normal games. Even if he makes it to the late game with his economy intact, it's easy to envision 100 supply of Ret's ultralisks getting instantly turned into hamburger by marauders. Fortunately for Ret, Mvp doesn't play straight up MMM openers as often as you'd think.used to be our poster boy for slow but steady improvement, but TLO has wrested that position away from him with the advent of HotS. It seems like Grubby is stuck in the zone between good and great, looking like a fringe contender in non-Korean tournaments, and not being quite consistent enough against Koreans (while still taking the occasional series off them) to challenge for championships in the more difficult tourneys. In order to get over this hump, I'd like to recommend that he spend some time as a player-caster. Hey, it worked wonders for ToD and HasuObs!First, go look atrecord for the month of July on Aligulac.com . Yup, that's a 40 - 12 record for a 77% win rate. Excuse me while I yellIf the wordwasn't so misused to the point of being meaningless, I would dub HasuObs "The foreigner bonjwa of online play in the month of July." Let's see if he can continue to play well in a live setting.> Ret> HasuObs> Grubby> Ret> Grubby

Entirety Profile Blog Joined April 2012 1423 Posts #16



On August 05 2013 16:20 Entirety wrote:



Opening Match

Mvp vs. Ret



Mvp's TvZ: 64%

Ret's ZvT: 47%

Head to Head Record: 1-4 (20%)



(1868) Mvp 0-0 Ret (1345)

-------------------------------------

51.37% 2-0 0-2 8.03%

29.10% 2-1 1-2 11.50%

-------------------------------------

80.47% 19.53%



Median outcome: Mvp 2-0 Ret

Modify. Estimated by Aligulac



Oh Terran King, please make up your mind. Are you good against Zerg or not? Mvp's WCS EU S1 performance showed domination against the best foreigner Zergs around (TLO, DIMAGA, Stephano), and he beat KangHo 2-1 during the S1 Finals... yet recently, he is 0-6 against Korean Zergs (CoCa, DongRaeGu, and Symbol). At this point, we are left wondering whether his TvZ can truly deliver in Korean-level competition.



Meanwhile, Ret isn't looking to be in the best shape either. While his teammates TLO and Snute surge ahead in results, Ret has had rather disappointing results lately. At DH Summer, HSC, and RSL, Ret lost to three different foreign Terrans (SjoW, Bunny, Dayshi). Overall, Ret's performance against Terran in HotS is lackluster, sitting at a 47% win ratio. Even with Ret's head-to-head advantage, can Ret truly pull off the upset a third time?



Mvp's TvZ win rate of 64% is impressive enough already, but let's examine that statistic more closely. His win ratio has been affected by his recent losses, which all took place during online qualifiers. What if we only look at Mvp's specialty, his offline games? Suddenly his win ratio jumps to 71%! Now, we all know Mvp is very good at beating up foreigners like Ret... let's only count his games against non-Koreans. Suddenly his TvZ win-ratio is 88%! Also, remember that Mvp is good at preparing for series, so let's only count Bo3 series or higher. That removes a GSTL loss against Scarlett, which puts us at...



...a 14-1 (93%) record! While Mvp has been struggling against Korean Zergs, it seems like his true calling in life is to beat up foreigner Zergs (like Ret) in offline LANs (such as WCS EU) in longer series (such as a Bo3). I must give the advantage to Mvp!



Other Matches



Mvp's TvP: 74%



Grubby's PvT: 52%

Head to Head Record: 4-0 (100%)



(1831) Mvp 0-0 Grubby (1404)

-----------------------------------------

46.36% 2-0 0-2 10.19%

29.59% 2-1 1-2 13.87%

-----------------------------------------

75.94% 24.06%



Median outcome: Mvp 2-1 Grubby

Modify. Estimated by Aligulac



Grubby's PvT has been decent in HotS, but he hasn't regained that special touch which allowed him to grab deep tournament runs. Meanwhile, let's look at Mvp's TvP... starting with IEM, he beats Grubby, MaNa, Feast... loses to MC. He beats Siw, Socke, SaSe, SaSe, Adelscott... loses to Alicia. He beats elfi. Do you see the pattern here? Since Grubby is a foreign Protoss, it seems likely that Mvp will eat Grubby up.



HasuObs's PvT: 58%

Head to Head Record: 0-0



(1831) Mvp 0-0 HasuObs (1597)

-------------------------------------------

36.25% 2-0 0-2 15.83%

28.85% 2-1 1-2 19.07%

-------------------------------------------

65.10% 34.90%



Median outcome: Mvp 2-1 HasuObs

Modify. Estimated by Aligulac



Since HasuObs is another foreign Protoss, I could say the same here and favor Mvp heavily. However, HasuObs's PvT is quite strong. In fact, I would say that HasuObs has the greatest chance of upsetting Mvp. Still, I call it an upset because Mvp is still favored strongly over HasuObs. Since the two players have not met each other before, it will surely be an interesting showdown.



Overall Outlook

Top 2 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

--------------------------------------------------------------

Mvp 85.16% 55.90% 29.26% 9.29% 5.55%

HasuObs 55.28% 23.43% 31.84% 25.67% 19.05%

Grubby 33.37% 11.71% 21.67% 33.66% 32.96%

Ret 26.19% 8.96% 17.23% 31.37% 42.43%

Modify. Estimated by Aligulac



Yup, Mvp's chances are good.



Will jet lag play a factor? Perhaps, but keep in mind that Mvp has rested in Korea for a very long time. He took a gamble by choosing to play WCS EU Ro32 from Korea, but he advanced safely. He was able to practice with his teammates for GSTL. When he found out his WCS EU Ro16 group, you can bet he practiced with ByuL, RagnaroK, and KangHo (for Zerg) and First, Squirtle, YongHwa, Ruin, and MC (for Protoss). I believe he will come into this group well-rested and well-prepared.



HerO, champion of AM, out in the Ro32. Soulkey, champion of KR, out in Ro8. INnoVation, champion of the world, out in Ro4. Mvp remains the only champion standing... today will be decisive. Will he fall out in the Ro32, landing between HerO and Soulkey? Or will he advance and become the only champion to take the first WCS seasons?



Predictions

Mvp 2-0 Ret

Grubby 1-2 HasuObs

Mvp 2-0 HasuObs

Ret 2-0 Grubby

HasuObs 1-2 Ret



Mvp and Ret advance! Mvp's TvZ:Ret's ZvT:Head to Head Record:Oh Terran King, please make up your mind. Are you good against Zerg or not? Mvp's WCS EU S1 performance showed domination against the best foreigner Zergs around (TLO, DIMAGA, Stephano), and he beat KangHo 2-1 during the S1 Finals... yet recently, he is 0-6 against Korean Zergs (CoCa, DongRaeGu, and Symbol). At this point, we are left wondering whether his TvZ can truly deliver in Korean-level competition.Meanwhile, Ret isn't looking to be in the best shape either. While his teammates TLO and Snute surge ahead in results, Ret has had rather disappointing results lately. At DH Summer, HSC, and RSL, Ret lost to three different foreign Terrans (SjoW, Bunny, Dayshi). Overall, Ret's performance against Terran in HotS is lackluster, sitting at a 47% win ratio. Even with Ret's head-to-head advantage, can Ret truly pull off the upset a third time?Mvp's TvZ win rate of 64% is impressive enough already, but let's examine that statistic more closely. His win ratio has been affected by his recent losses, which all took place during online qualifiers. What if we only look at Mvp's specialty, his offline games? Suddenly his win ratio jumps to 71%! Now, we all know Mvp is very good at beating up foreigners like Ret... let's only count his games against non-Koreans. Suddenly his TvZ win-ratio is 88%! Also, remember that Mvp is good at preparing for series, so let's only count Bo3 series or higher. That removes a GSTL loss against Scarlett, which puts us at......arecord! While Mvp has been struggling against Korean Zergs, it seems like his true calling in life is to beat up(like Ret) in(such as WCS EU) in(such as a Bo3). I must give the advantage to Mvp!Mvp's TvP:'s PvT:Head to Head Record:Grubby's PvT has been decent in HotS, but he hasn't regained that special touch which allowed him to grab deep tournament runs. Meanwhile, let's look at Mvp's TvP... starting with IEM, he beats Grubby, MaNa, Feast... loses toMC. He beats Siw, Socke, SaSe, SaSe, Adelscott... loses toAlicia. He beats elfi. Do you see the pattern here? Since Grubby is a foreign Protoss, it seems likely that Mvp will eat Grubby up.'s PvT:Head to Head Record:Since HasuObs is another foreign Protoss, I could say the same here and favor Mvp heavily. However, HasuObs's PvT is quite strong. In fact, I would say that HasuObs has the greatest chance of upsetting Mvp. Still, I call it an upset because Mvp is still favored strongly over HasuObs. Since the two players have not met each other before, it will surely be an interesting showdown.Yup, Mvp's chances are good.Will jet lag play a factor? Perhaps, but keep in mind that Mvp has rested in Korea for a very long time. He took a gamble by choosing to play WCS EU Ro32 from Korea, but he advanced safely. He was able to practice with his teammates for GSTL. When he found out his WCS EU Ro16 group, you can bet he practiced with ByuL, RagnaroK, and KangHo (for Zerg) and First, Squirtle, YongHwa, Ruin, and MC (for Protoss). I believe he will come into this group well-rested and well-prepared.HerO, champion of AM, out in the Ro32. Soulkey, champion of KR, out in Ro8. INnoVation, champion of the world, out in Ro4. Mvp remains the only champion standing... today will be decisive. Will he fall out in the Ro32, landing between HerO and Soulkey? Or will he advance and become the only champion to take the first WCS seasons?-0 RetGrubby 1--0 HasuObs-0 GrubbyHasuObs 1- From the Mvp Fan Club IMMvp (정종현) | Fan Club: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=211431