HSE officials are worried that any lifting of the Covid-19 restrictions next week will result in a second surge of the virus, piling pressure on hospitals across the country.

Hospitals are being warned to expect a second lockdown between May and September by HSE officials planning for the fallout when the restrictions are eased.

This will have an impact on how patients awaiting cancer treatment and routine operations are cared for, with hospitals expected to keep contingencies in place to cope with a sudden surge of coronavirus cases.

There are also serious concerns about the arrival of "a nightmare winter flu" after September, a source told the Sunday Independent.

It comes as the number of deaths linked to the virus grew to 1,063 yesterday, an increase of 52. There have been more than 18,500 confirmed cases since the crisis erupted.

Hospitals have been told by public health officials that they expect any easing of restrictions after the bank holiday weekend will eventually lead to increased spread of Covid-19, but they also have concerns about the long-term impact of not allowing people to resume some normal activity as soon as possible.

Ireland is expected to see lockdown restrictions partially lifted on May 5, but the likelihood of greater freedoms remaining in place throughout the summer will depend on how the virus spreads in the following weeks and months.

"Essentially they are trying to buy patience from the public by easing things on May 5, but they are resigned to a second lockdown coming soon after," a source said.

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HSE briefings with hospitals last week indicated contagion of the disease will determine how long restrictions will be lifted for.

"They are saying the crucial thing at the minute is the R0," the source said - referring to the mathematical term used to describe how contagious a virus is. "A second lockdown is inevitable. At the moment our level is below 1.0, roughly 0.7. This is good and if we stay below this number the restrictions will be lifted on May 5.

"The problem is, if this number rises and hits 1.0 again, we will have to go back into lockdown. They expect it will get back above 1.0 during the summer.

"So, after May 5, social distancing and staying two metres apart will still be happening but the virus will naturally start spreading again because people won't always be careful. That will bring another wave and another lockdown before September."

There are also serious concerns about "a nightmare winter flu" hitting the country after September. "How we cope with that will depend on the uptake of the [flu] vaccine," a source said. "That is separate to the Covid issue but the two together creates a nightmare flu season for hospitals to manage."

Any lifting of lockdown measures will be done on a phased basis and they will not be relaxed as quickly, or in the same order they were implemented.

A predicted second surge will be of concern to nursing homes and healthcare settings which have already struggled to cope with initial outbreaks.

The HSE confirmed the death toll at St Mary's Hospital, a residential care facility in the Phoenix Park, Dublin, has increased to 21 after 10 further deaths since mid-April.

Nursing Homes Ireland (NHI) said yesterday that Health Minister Simon Harris is making "significant" changes to the temporary assistance scheme for operators in the sector after complaints it was not fit for purpose.

In a circular this weekend, NHI told members that the minister is making significant changes to the terms and conditions of the scheme to make the process simpler. It will be handled by the HSE, rather than the National Treatment Purchase Fund, which administers the Fair Deal scheme.

Testing has been ramped up in the sector in recent days and Mr Harris said the HSE will be able to carry out 100,000 tests for Covid-19 every week under a plan to be published in the coming days. Officials say there is capacity to carry out up to 10,000 tests per day at present.

Mr Harris said this does not mean 10,000 tests are being done every day but HSE management will be expected to increase capacity to up to 15,000 daily tests. This extra capability will be needed as the criteria for testing are likely to change in the coming weeks, meaning more people will be eligible to be tested for the disease.

Sunday Independent