Australian politics has come to be defined by volatility and cynicism. Case in point: half of Australian voters think it's unlikely that Tony Abbott will still be Prime Minister at the next election, write Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods.

Out with the old and in with the new. The New Year's cliché has become the mission statement of Australian politics, with the final Essential poll of the year showing voters have little confidence their Government or Prime Minister will survive beyond their first term.

The reasons for this Government's dive in support have filled acres of newsprint during 2014. But the ideological over-reach, unsaleable budget, intransigence on global warming, and string of broken promises don't fully explain the political climate, which is remarkably free of Christmas generosity.

Incumbency, once the trump card of politics, has become a poisoned chalice. While there are always policy and performance explanations for unpopularity, it's also the case that our politics has come to be defined by volatility, cynicism and a loss of public confidence.

Q. Do you think Tony Abbott is likely or unlikely to still be the leader of the Liberal Party at the next election?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other Likely 29% 16% 50% 19% 29% Unlikely 51% 72% 29% 68% 60% Don't know 20% 12% 21% 13% 11%

Half of Australian voters think it's unlikely that Tony Abbott will be Prime Minister at the next election, while fewer than a third believe he'll make the distance. Even only half of Coalition voters believe Abbott will remain as leader. Despite the accepted lunacy of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era, people expect that leaders who languish in opinion polls will be dumped.

The same applies to government. There is little expectation that a government down in the polls can bounce back.

Q. Which party do you think is most likely to win the next federal election due in 2016?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other Labor Party 46% 84% 16% 66% 40% Liberal/National Party 27% 2% 64% 7% 16% Can't say 27% 14% 20% 27% 44%

Just 15 months into their first term, over a quarter of voters think the LNP can hold government and nearly half expect that this will be the first one-term federal government in modern political history.

Of course, public opinion doesn't tell us whether these things will actually come to pass. It's early days for the Abbott Government - though it doesn't always feel like that - and the prospect of any party removing a first-term prime minister in the foreseeable future seems remote.

But these numbers do point to a national mood that's become entrenched during 2014.

The Abbott-led Coalition's success in opposition has led to a passionate embrace of negative campaigning, across the political spectrum. The take-out from the Gillard era was that undermining trust was the political gold that could tear down a government.

But in honing negativity to a fine art in opposition, politicians undermine public confidence in the institutions of government and create a beast that threatens to consume them in power.

Monstering Labor for 'broken promises' and 'deficit blowouts' worked a treat in opposition, but created a straitjacket for the Coalition in confronting those issues in government.

The temptation Labor has thus far failed to resist is to return the favour and undermine trust in the government on similar terms. The problem is, if Labor does meet voter expectations and consign the Abbott Government to a single term in office, what then?

When the public discourse is about broken promises and failed expectations, voters tend to see all politicians through that frame.

The dirty secret of political campaigning is that it's always easier to go negative. But effective governments must plan for the long-term, explain the big problems confronting the nation, and have the courage to change course when circumstances change.

This lesson from 2014 is that governments aren't only challenged by the opposition facing them in Parliament, but also by the kind of opposition they were on the way in.

And unless our politicians can shift to a contest of values and ideas, rather than brawling over the disappointing behaviour voters have come to expect, we'll continue to turn on them. One-term governments may not be such a rarity in future.

The survey was conducted online from December 12-15, 2014, and is based on 1,016 respondents.

Peter Lewis is a director of Essential Media Communications. View his full profile here. Jackie Woods is a communications consultant at Essential Media Communications. View her full profile here.