The New York Times recently put out a great report highlighting the challenges of electing more women to the House of Representatives. Their thesis boiled down to a few key points:

Many Democratic women are running for the House this year, and they appear to be winning primaries at disproportionate rates.

A lot of these women are challenging entrenched incumbents in heavily Republican districts, and are likely to lose the general election.

An abnormally high number of women in the current House are not seeking reelection: 14 out of 84. As a result, even if women triumph in quite a few races this fall, their numbers in the House may barely budge.

The Times put together some nice infographics about the state of the primaries as of May 12. I’ve put together a simple tracker to keep updating the projection of the expected number of women to serve in the next House. To compute expected values, I’m using the current Cook Political Report Rating of the seat along with the average win probabilities associated with those ratings, computed here.

Based on these ratings and nominee selections from primaries that have already occurred, we would expect 77 women to serve in the next House, seven fewer than today. However, there are two processes that will increase this expected value:

More women will be selected in upcoming primaries. I am not including women who are heavily favored to win nominations in competitive seats, like Mikie Sherill in NJ-11 or Lisa Brown in WA-5, because those women have not been formally nominated yet.

Ratings will shift as we head into November. If ratings continue to shift toward Democrats, this will typically increase the expected number of women, as Democrats have many more female nominees.

It is noteworthy that despite all the recent women triumphing in primaries, we’re nowhere near an expected increase in the number of Congresswomen. To see why, let’s look at each of the four types of candidates: incumbents, incumbent challengers, those vying for open seats currently held by their own parties, and those vying for open seats held by the other party.

Incumbents

Of the 84 women currently serving in the House, 70 are seeking reelection: 53 Democrats and 17 Republicans. Among the Democrats, virtually everyone is safe (the only two marginally contested seats are Stephanie Murphy in FL-7 and Annie Kuster in NH-2).

But among the Republicans, more than half are in competitive races. Six are rated either Toss-Up (Claudia Tenney in NY-22, Barbara Comstock in VA-10) or Leans Republican (Mimi Walters in CA-45, Karen Handel in GA-6, Cathy McMorris Rodgers in WA-5, and Mia Love in UT-4).

While some of these women will face female Democratic challengers, it still yields an interesting dynamic: Democrats could triumph in the fall partially by decimating the ranks of the (typically moderate) female Republicans in swing districts. There are currently 2.65 times as many Democratic women serving in the House as Republican women, and this ratio may grow even more lopsided in 2019.

Party Seat Rating # of Women Win Prob Expected Value Dem Safe Democrat 51 100.00% 51 Dem Likely Democrat 2 99.00% 1.98 Dem Lean Democrat 0 89.20% 0 Dem Toss-Up Dem 0 48.50% 0 Rep Toss-Up Rep 2 48.50% 0.97 Rep Lean Republican 4 89.20% 3.57 Rep Likely Republican 3 99.00% 2.97 Rep Safe Republican 8 100.00% 8 Total: 68.49

Incumbent Challengers

Here, we see the most dramatic reason that women aren’t currently favored to pick up seats: there are 41 women currently nominated by their party to face an incumbent Congressperson, but 31 of the challengers (28 D, 3R) are in races currently rated Safe for the incumbent party. It’s exceedingly unlikely that these women will ultimately triumph in November.

Only a small handful of women, all Democrats, have been nominated in races where they have a good chance of defeating an incumbent. The only seat rated as a toss-up is TX-7, where Lizzie Pannill Fletcher will be the Democratic nominee. Five Democratic women are challenging incumbents in races rated Lean Republican: Lauren Underwood in IL-14, Kathy Manning in NC-13, Kara Eastman in NE-2, Amy McGrath in KY-6, and Gina Ortiz Jones in TX-23.

The result: of these 41 women, the current expected number to serve in Congress next January is just one.

Party Seat Rating # of Women Win Probability Expected Value Rep Safe Democrat 3 0.00% 0 Rep Likely Democrat 0 0.99% 0 Rep Lean Democrat 0 10.81% 0 Rep Toss-Up Dem 0 51.49% 0 Dem Toss-Up Rep 1 51.49% 0.51 Dem Lean Republican 5 10.81% 0.54 Dem Likely Republican 4 0.99% 0.04 Dem Safe Republican 28 0.00% 0 Total: 1.10

Open Seats: Home Challengers

The news is a little better among women nominated for seats held by their own party, where the incumbent is not seeking reelection. Of these seven women (6D, 1R), most are expected to win. Pennsylvania’s newly redrawn Congressional maps — and the fact that a number of women triumphed in competitive Pennsylvania primaries — has been particularly beneficial.

There are three female Democrats in seats rated Safe D: Madeline Dean (PA-4), Veronica Escobar (TX-16), and Sylvia Garcia (TX-29). Three other Democratic women, all in Pennsylvania, are in either Likely or Lean seats: Mary Gay Scanlon (PA-5), Susan Wild (PA-7), and Chrissy Houlahan (PA-6).

The lone Republican woman likely to pick up a seat is Carol Miller in WV-3, but she is facing a very spirited Democratic challenger in Richard Ojeda. This race might be one to watch.

Party Seat Rating # of Women Win Probability Expected Value Dem Safe Democrat 3 100.00% 3.00 Dem Likely Democrat 2 100.00% 2.00 Dem Lean Democrat 1 94.44% 0.94 Dem Toss-Up Dem 0 62.50% 0 Rep Toss-Up Rep 0 62.50% 0 Rep Lean Republican 0 94.44% 0 Rep Likely Republican 1 100.00% 1.00 Rep Safe Republican 0 100.00% 0 Total: 6.94

Open Seats: Away Challengers

Among the women challenging for open seats currently held by the other party (6D, 1R), virtually none are expected to win. The lone Republican is Pearl Kim in PA-5, who will likely fall to Mary Gay Scanlon. The only Democrat in a remotely competitive seat is Bibiana Boerio in the newly redrawn PA-14, but this is still rated Likely Republican.

The other five Democratic women — Cristina McNeil (ID-1), Tobi Beck (IN-4), Jeannine Lake (IN-6), Susan Palmer (OH-16), and Jana Lynn Sanchez (TX-6) — are all competing in races rated Safe R.

Party Seat Rating # of Women Win Probability Expected Value Rep Safe Democrat 0 0.00% 0 Rep Likely Democrat 1 0.00% 0 Rep Lean Democrat 0 5.56% 0 Rep Toss-Up Dem 0 37.50% 0 Dem Toss-Up Rep 0 37.50% 0 Dem Lean Republican 0 5.56% 0 Dem Likely Republican 1 0.00% 0 Dem Safe Republican 5 0.00% 0 Total: 0