Crowded Republican primary for Oregon governor tighter than expected

With ballots going out to voters within the week, long-presumed gubernatorial front-runner Rep. Knute Buehler has, at best, yet to create any meaningful distance between himself and other top candidates in the Republican gubernatorial primary.

The Bend Republican has not performed up to external expectations in early straw polls, winning the April 14 Washington County Republican Party's poll by just one vote over Greg Wooldridge.

He lost the February Dorchester Conference's poll to the aforementioned retired Navy captain by 11 percentage points.

Buehler has been absent from the score of candidate forums and debates since the legislative session ended the first weekend in March. The only one he's confirmed to have attended was in Washington County for the straw poll.

"That should be really troubling for that campaign because this shouldn’t even be a contest," said Oregon political analyst Jim Moore.

Among an historically large field of candidates, three Republicans have separated themselves from the pack with stronger voter outreach, endorsements and fundraising: Buehler, Wooldridge and Bend businessman Sam Carpenter.

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The campaigns for Wooldridge and Carpenter have each made the case in recent weeks as to why they are the favorite to make it to the general election ballot in November.

Buehler, who started the year as the run-away favorite, has allowed his actions to speak for him.

But he hasn't escaped the primary season unscathed.

Buehler is a frequent punching bag for his fellow Republicans during campaign events, attacked for his support of proposals they see as too moderate, including a bill that closed the so-called domestic violence "boyfriend loophole" in gun purchasing.

The Democrats and unions, meanwhile, have taken to pounding him on votes they say shows him to be less moderate than he portrays himself.

For his part, Buehler has focused his energy on criticizing Gov. Kate Brown, the Democratic incumbent. In statements and ad campaigns, he has accused Brown of failing schoolchildren, hurting small businesses and generally leading the state astray.

"I think he’s overconfident," Wooldridge said. "He’s looking to the general (election)."

Despite repeated requests for comment to his campaign manager, Buehler did not make himself available for this story.

Moore, director of the Tom McCall Center for Policy Innovation at Pacific University in Forest Grove, said Buehler's position as a state representative gives him certain advantages over the other candidates.

Those advantages — including name recognition and Republican establishment support — afford him the opportunity to avoid candidate events where he might become a target for his more conservative opponents, Moore said.

But, if he gets through the primary, Moore said that the attacks from both sides could work in his favor.

"If he wins ... it means he’s in the middle of something. He can make a good, centrist argument with that," he said.

Getting to November means going through nine other Republicans on the May ballot, the most in at least 20 years.

Wooldridge said he believes there are good, talented people working across Oregon's state government, they just need a better leader. He said his time leading the Blue Angels and a Naval Air Station in California gives him the experience he needs to take the state to new heights.

"This is an opportunity to lead the state out of the troubles it’s been having," Wooldridge said.

He only entered the race in February, "drafted" by two state lawmakers. His late entrance compared to Carpenter or Buehler gives him far less time to fund raise or connect with voters.

But he said he wouldn't have filed to run if he didn't think he could win.

Carpenter is similarly confident.

Armed with the motto "Make Oregon Great Again," the businessman has frequently taken the opportunity to praise President Donald Trump and his agenda.

He is campaigning on his business experience as his main qualification for governor.

"My life has been fixing broken organizations," Carpenter said.

Also like the president, Carpenter is putting his campaigning faith in social media, boasting 83,000 followers on Facebook and using the service to chat with voters.

"I don’t talk just to donors, O.K.? Donors don’t win races," he said.

Carpenter points to a poll from March that showed him effectively tied with Buehler and 19 points ahead of Wooldridge. Carpenter paid Triton Polling and Research to conduct the poll, and Moore said its results should be taken with some skepticism.

Buehler still has an outsized advantage in fundraising with $1.3 million in his political action committee as of Friday, while Wooldridge and Carpenter have $76,000 and $4,000, respectively.

Buehler's top contributor is Phil Knight, co-founder of Nike, who gave half a million dollars to the campaign in August. Buehler's largest expenditures came earlier this month, when he paid nearly $350,000 to Virginia-based Strategic Media Services for "broadcast advertising."

He previously used the company last December and during his successful bids for state representative in 2014 and 2016.

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Wooldridge's largest contribution arrived in March — $100,000 from Daybreak Investments, LP, headquartered in the East Bay region of California. He's raised $195,550 overall, with 60 percent of that coming from out of state.

Wooldridge said that much of his support has come from old friends and colleagues that he's been in contact with.

By far the most prolific backer of Carpenter's campaign is Carpenter himself.

As of Friday, he had loaned his campaign $101,500, had $6,588.99 in outstanding accounts payable, and contributed $5. The campaign has also paid $59,000 in advertising to Facebook in personal contributions for reimbursement, most coming from Carpenter himself.

The campaign has so far paid Carpenter $21,159.87. The campaign has also used Pathway One — a Bend marketing company Carpenter said he owns 51 percent of — to the tune of $52,223.50 in accounts payable.

"It’s hard to raise funds when you’re a primary candidate and you’re not the established leader," Carpenter said.

He said that he expects to pay himself back in full with the funds he will raise during the general election campaign.

Taking all outstanding loans, personal expenditures for reimbursement and accounts payable into consideration, Carpenter's campaign is in the red by nearly $240,000.

The other seven candidates that will appear on ballots are: Keenan Bohach of Keizer, Bruce Cuff of Lyons, Jonathan Edwards III of Gresham, Brett Hyland of Portland, Jeff Smith of Elgin, David Stauffer of Portland and Jack Tracy of Lebanon.

Contact the reporter at cradnovich@statesmanjournal.com or 503-399-6864, or follow him on Twitter at @CDRadnovich