INITIALLY written off by much of the commentariat and the Conservative Party, Ed Miliband’s fortunes have been improving. Under his leadership the Labour Party now enjoys a healthy poll lead over the Tories. His recent call for the reinstatement of the lower, 10p income-tax band was hailed as a break from the previous Labour government (which controversially abolished it). But a comparison of Mr Miliband’s personal ratings with those of previous opposition leaders (see chart) suggests that his own popularity remains underwhelming—at what may well be a pivotal moment in the electoral cycle.

His is justly known as “the hardest job in British politics”: the leader of the opposition has little control over events and must scrabble for attention. Of the nine incumbents since 1979, all but Tony Blair slipped into negative satisfaction ratings within a year of taking over. Until the end of 2011 Mr Miliband’s resembled those of the three recent Tory leaders who failed to become prime minister: William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard.

True, sometimes voters change their minds. David Cameron’s ratings fell in the first two years of his leadership, then jumped and remained positive until the 2010 election. He was helped by an economic slowdown and an unloved government. Mr Miliband enjoys similar advantages, but not identical ones. Although his score improved in 2012 (in part because of the coalition’s deep and unpopular spending cuts), a Cameronesque mid-term breakthrough eludes him. His ratings most closely resemble those of his party’s two-time election loser, Neil Kinnock.

That is both good and bad news for him. Less popular than Mr Blair but more so than the old left’s champion, Michael Foot, Mr Kinnock also came between the two chronologically. He helped his party recover from its catastrophic defeat under Mr Foot in 1983; but it took his two successors, John Smith and Mr Blair, to make it electable. Like him, Mr Miliband has defied naysayers by bringing new order and credibility to his party. But the Labour leader is haunted by Mr Kinnock’s limited personal appeal. And today, in the age of social media and televised debates, election campaigns are even more presidential than they used to be.