Team Cruz had been operating under the assumption that in a winnowed field– Trump would max out at ~40%, and the majority of Republicans would unite behind Ted Cruz.

And with good reason…







As expected, Cruz steadily gained on Trump nationally since Marco Rubio suspended his campaign on March 15.

But then the Colorado GOP Convention happened on April 9…

Reuters/Ipsos Trump Cruz MAR. 12 Trump +25 48 23 MAR. 19 Trump +25 48 23 MAR. 26 Trump +21 48 27 APR. 2 Trump +12 44 32 APR. 9 Trump +3 40 37 APR. 16 Trump +16 46 30 APR. 22 Trump +21 49 28

-3 to -21 in 2 weeks…

To make matters worse, Cruz is now seen as an establishment candidate by 62% of Republicans.