While the CRTC’s reset of long-standing Canadian content rules for the small screen is very much a work in progress, some industry insiders already fear for the smaller, independent producer.

The worry is that privately held niche broadcasters in areas such as children’s programming and documentary film making lacking access to capital market funding could be especially vulnerable. Analysts said some specialty channels may disappear altogether.

“Success will not be universal,” Jean-Pierre Blais, chair of the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission said Thursday in a speech announcing the changes that follow a public consultation and hearings with industry players. “Some will thrive, others fail. New players will emerge. But I assure you this is the right way forward.”

The CRTC said it is dropping Canadian content quotas for daytime TV while leaving the 6-11 p.m. high viewership window and overall CanCon spending requirements unchanged.

Specialty channels including HGTV, Space and MTV Canada which have had genre protection in order to limit competition and license requirements that limited what kind of content they could show, will see those restrictions lifted, allowing more flexibility on what they can air.

All Canadian broadcasters will be required to invest in homegrown production and pilot projects will be launched aimed at creating higher quality domestic programming that can compete on a global stage.

Thursday’s changes follow an initial decision to allow Canadians access to American commercials during the Super Bowl while the CRTC still has to act on issues such as cable unbundling. Along with the changes to specialty channels, unbundling to allow more pick and pay could potentially be even more bad news for smaller channels.

There are also concerns about negative effects on local news.

“I hope the writing is not on the wall,” said Stephen Waddell, national executive director of ACTRA, the union representing more than 22,000 performers working in English-language TV, film, radio and digital media.

Waddell said the changes have the potential to significantly impact the union’s membership in Toronto and across the country.

He also pointed out that greater investment in bigger productions is not a guarantee of success. Moreover, reduced protections for specialty genre channels, leaving them more open to U.S. and other foreign competition, could see Canadian shows now airing during the day replaced by U.S. offerings.

“If that’s the case, then we’ve failed,” said Canadian film director and producer Barry Avrich, who is also CEO of Melbar Entertainment Group.

“If it’s about cultivating the talent to produce better television then we win. If the result is more U.S. television that is reality-based then we failed,” he said, while acknowledging the U.S. does produce quality reality TV.

As well, observers said market forces will be a key driver in what Blais calls the age of TV abundance.

According to an industry source who chose not to speak for attribution, programs like CTV’s The Social and The Marilyn Denis Show were created and exist in response to advertiser demand for in-show integrations and sponsorships‎.

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The shows are “both enormously successful with advertisers and audiences alike and are achieving record ratings this year.

“It’s a discredit for people to suggest they exist to fulfil regulatory obligations,” he said.

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