The demise of the Labour party in Holland is directly linked to austerity and a widening gap between haves and have-nots. It is no accident that they switched to a more anti-immigration position- but then Holland already had a tough regime in that respect.



The thrust of Kaletsky's analysis, if we just change the language a little, is correct.

Europe adopted foolish policies based on a certain Right Wing model of the economy such that migration is good and fiscal deficits are bad because they supposedly crowd out private investment. Merkel's administration played the part of enforcer of a type of 'Monetarist' austerity misleadingly titled 'Growth and Stability' which was foolish and unworkable. Quietly, a U turn was made and some positive signs are visible though major structural issues have not been addressed.



On migration as well, Merkel has done a U turn and it has become clear that talk of a 'Liberal World Order' was just hot air. There won't be any universal 'Human Rights' based entitlements- such that a refugee gets housing while a native is left out in the cold- or any more R2P military interventions or further pretence that 'Ordoliberalism' is a meaningful Socio-Economic program.



Where Kaletsky is wrong is in suggesting that Europe can be a model for anything or anyone. Why? Nothing much has really changed. There was always some migration between European countries. After the War, for demographic reasons, there was also some mass migration from non-Christian or non-White countries most of whom were only partially enfranchised economically, culturally and politically.

For a brief period Merkel- presiding over a thriving economy but faced with a demographic problem at home- was able to pose as a champion of 'universal' values or some soi disant 'liberal world order'. Why did she do so? Maybe it was the Obama effect. People in Europe thought the Americans had conquered their hereditary colour prejudice. The truth is, the white working class voted for Obama because they were signalling desperation. When a poor white man hires a black lawyer it is not because he believes in affirmative action. He just wants to win his case and he feels that the black lawyer has had to struggle more to get where he is today. Thus he will fight harder for the white client.

Similarly, the same people who voted for Obama voted for Trump because the sight of this bizarre outsider in the White House throws a scare into the Political establishment. The Republican party could have scuppered Obamacare. They didn't because many of them would lose their seats because the voter was holding them personally responsible. You can't shift the blame to Trump the way you could shift the blame to Obama because Trump is an elderly fool with zero experience of politics. Obama was a highly intelligent lawyer and 'policy wonk' who could put together and present highly complex pieces of legislation. Does anybody believe Trump or any of his crowd can do anything similar?

Merkel was not Obama. Her executive style was utterly different. She was not capable of drafting 'big picture' Legislative reforms. Ultimately, she was pedantic when she needed to be pragmatic, moralised when she needed to mend fences, and dilatory when she needed to be decisive. Her fundamental premise- viz. that Obama had become the Leader of the Free World because of some change in the Weltgeist- was flawed. Obama was elected because people were desperate. Merkel and her allies have made millions of people in Europe equally desperate. Trump's victory has put an end to their day-dreams. Europe will right itself because it is easy to return to the old ways. But it can't be a model for anybody.



Merkel has done a U turn. Maybe she will survive unlike some professional politicians in other European countries who rose and later sank without a trace- unless you consider an occasional piece on Project Syndicate a proof of life- because they never figured out where the steering wheel was or what it was for. Meanwhile a new generation of hacks have rushed in with old wine in new bottles. But, whatever happens, the hangover will be worse than the party.



