Has Tony peaked? Two nights ago, the Liberal leader projected the mix of realism, relief and measured confidence that victory was in his grasp after a campaign launch that went off without a hitch.

Abbott's scathing critique of' ''the worst government in Australia's history'', his own disciplined performance and Labor's patchy, accident-prone campaign had propelled the Coalition to a lead in this five-week race.

Now, Julia Gillard's strongest 48 hours since she called the election has left her where Paul Keating used to say he wanted to be 10 days out from polling day: one out, one back and, finally, with a hint of momentum.

Today is traditionally the day of the Labor launch, but the decision to back-end its campaign and delay the biggest set play until the final week is looking tactically clever - just as the Abbott refusal to accept a second debate seems unwise.