

Why you shouldn't forecast elections by counting lawn signs. (AP/Danny Johnston)

With the mid-term elections exactly two weeks away, President Obama made what seemed another strategic error Monday, saying that Democrats in competitive races "are all folks who vote with me" even if they aren't showing him love in the campaign. Republicans were already seizing on the comment, but the truth is it probably will have limited impact on the election outcome. The fundamentals have been set for months.

We know the Republicans have a major edge, with most polling models showing the GOP winning the Senate. Forecasts of how likely Republicans are to take control of the Senate range from 62 percent (Five Thirty Eight) to 93 percent (The Washington Post). Here's what's important to keep in mind in the last 14 days of campaigning:

The opposition party almost always has an advantage in midterms. In mid-term elections since World War II, the president's party has lost an average of four seats in the Senate.

The electoral map favors Republicans. Democrats have more to lose as they are defending more seats -- 21 to Republicans' 15. Several of those seats are in more conservative states, including three in which incumbent Democrats are not running for reelection: Jay Rockefeller (D-W. Va.), Tim Johnson (D-S. D.), and Max Baucus (D-Mont.), who's already vacated the seat to become ambassador to China.

Public opinion has been against Obama for a long time. His most recent positive approval ratings were in June 2013.

Although there are many working Americans still waiting for a raise or a full-time job, a falling unemployment rate tends to help the president's party in a midterm. The economy has improved immensely since Obama took office, but the pace of the recovery isn't likely fast enough to counteract Republicans' other advantages, especially when median wages remain stagnant and many Americans feel poorer.

As John Sides has argued, these are the core facts that have defined the campaign from the beginning, and will continue to do so as Election Day approaches. There are a few curveballs that could make a difference, if not across the country in some of the closest races. So while we may focus on Ebola, the Islamic state, Obama's gaffes, or even Charlie Crist's fan, it's hard to see any of these issues dramatically changing the national picture.

"The broad contours of the election were largely set in stone nearly two years ago, yet column inches still need to be filled for a narrative-hungry readership," Justin Wolfers wrote last week. "No surprise, then, that the supply of dramatic political narrative rises to meet the demand, and the commentariat largely ignores the underlying predictability of most elections."

What's in Wonkbook: 1) Kobane receives reinforcements 2) Opinions: Amazon, the economy and corruption 3) New data on Ebola 4) China's economy sputters 5) Monetary policy, Obamacare, pumpkin-related violence and more.

Number of the day: 439 million. That's how many financial records have been stolen in the past six months, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Chart of the day: The wealthiest 160,000 U.S. families own more than 20 percent of all the things, according to Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman.

1. Top story: Iraqi Kurds fight back against the Islamic State -- and Turkey shifts its policy

Turkey has agreed to allow Iraqi Kurds to cross its territory to reinforce the besieged border town in Syria. The United States has also provided weapons and supplies by air. Liz Sly and Karen DeYoung in The Washington Post.

Turkey views the Iraqi peshmerga as equivalent to Kurdish separatists within its own borders. In fact, supporting the Iraqi Kurds might weaken the power and influence of the Turkish Kurds. Just another minor subplot in the story of the region's balance-of-power politics. Kareem Fahim and Karam Shoumali in The New York Times.

The Kurds are still using outdated weapons. "more than three months later and the Peshmerga fighters being relied upon to hold off the jihadists on the ground say they are still using mostly antiquated, Soviet-era weapons while the new supplies of heavy machine guns trickle in through Baghdad." Donna Abu-Nasr in Bloomberg.

The city of Kobane is caught in the crossfire of several conflicts: the Turks against the Kurds, the West against Assad, the Islamic State against everyone else. Hundreds of thousands of Kurds have already fled. Ishaan Tharoor in The Washington Post.

Meanwhile, in eastern Syria, the international community ignored the massacre of some 700 civilians. Tribesmen who revolted against the Islamic State were slaughtered, fueling resentment among those who feel that the West isn't doing enough. Liz Sly in The Washington Post.

2. Top opinions: Amazon, the economy, corruption and health care.

NOCERA: The end of OPEC is approaching. As global pressures force oil prices downward, the cartel's members have fallen to bickering. The New York Times.

GERSON: Republicans must be wary of being overconfident. Even if they win in the midterms, the party is still in trouble. The Washington Post.

EDWARD WOLFF: Piketty was wrong. Inheritances have accounted for a declining proportion of net worth in the United States. Project Syndicate.

LEVINE: An analyst sued for insider trading on Herbalife's stock might have a case. Insider trading is hard to define precisely. Bloomberg.

3. Ebola: more data, more bad news.

A new study forecasts infected passengers will continue to fly out of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. Taking into account the fact that air travel has largely halted in those three countries, the authors predicted that on average, 2.8 people with the virus will fly monthly. Gautam Naik in The Wall Street Journal.

Meanwhile, where are the private donations to fight Ebola? "Charitable giving to address the Ebola tragedy is almost nonexistent." Stephanie Strom in The New York Times.

The good news is that the virus can be controlled when it arrives. Nigeria proved it by being prepared and training local doctors. The country has now been free of Ebola for 42 days. Alexandra Sifferlin in Time.

KARIN HUSTER: Liberia's roads are largely impassable for ambulances at this time of year. A trip to the hospital to isolate a patient can take all night. The country either needs more makeshift hospitals in the country or bush pilots. The New York Times.

4. Chinese growth is slowing. Why that matters

Third-quarter growth was 7.3 percent, its lowest level in five years. Demand and industrial output are weak, and housing sales have fallen 10.8 percent so far this year. Liyan Qi, Richard Silk and Mark Magnier in The Wall Street Journal.

The glut in real estate is holding down prices throughout the Chinese economy. Commodities such as steel and cement are losing value, and banks are leery of lending as developers are failing to pay back loans on time. Esther Fung in The Wall Street Journal.

The slump was partially planned, which makes these statistics hard to read. Beijing is wary of further extending its national debt with stimulus measures to support the economy. Neil Gough in The New York Times.

Indeed, some investors might even see the depressed figures as good news. They're proof that the government is serious about controlling unsustainable economic growth. Adam Pasick and Gwynn Guilford in Quartz.

It's frustration with the economy that has driven thousands into the street in Hong Kong. Ordinary people feel excluded from the opportunities the city's wealthy have enjoyed. Simon Denyer in The Washington Post.

5. In case you missed it

Obamacare could enter a death spiral if the Halbig plaintiffs succeed. That's according to a new analysis by the RAND Corporation. Jason Millman in The Washington Post.

Quantitative easing reduced income inequality, says the Fed's Eric Rosengren. He also said the central bank might consider raising its inflation target. Matt O'Brien in The Washington Post.

Secular stagnation could lead to price bubbles in "inherently worthless objects." Two more economists have tried their hands at forecasting the effects of a global stagnation, and that's among their conclusions. Izabella Kaminska in The Financial Times.

Police are increasingly getting involved in discipline in the schools. "In Texas, a student got a misdemeanor ticket for wearing too much perfume. In Wisconsin, a teen was charged with theft after sharing the chicken nuggets from a classmate’s meal... In Florida, a student conducted a science experiment before the authorization of her teacher; when it went awry she received a felony weapons charge." There have been 250 million such arrests over the past 20 years. Gary Fields and John Emshwiller in The Wall Street Journal.

We need to talk about America's problem with pumpkin-related violence. Over the weekend, police at the pumpkin festival in Keene, N.H. deployed tear gas against a violent crowd and arrested 14 people. Mark Berman in The Washington Post.