Tobacco campaigners are concerned that new draft proposals from the European commission for a system to prevent cigarette smuggling may let the industry in by the back door.

The illicit trade in cigarettes has become a major problem worldwide. A study in 2009 by the US-based Campaign for Tobacco Free Kids estimated that 11.6% of all internationally traded cigarettes were illicit. They said that was equivalent to 657bn cigarettes a year, losing governments more than $40bn in tax revenue.

The tobacco industry claims the problem is counterfeit cigarettes, but even its own data shows that the majority of illicit trade is in packs the big companies have manufactured themselves.

Documents show that tobacco companies have historically been involved in smuggling their own cigarettes as a way of evading the high taxes imposed in some countries and increasing sales. Even as recently as 2014, British American Tobacco (BAT) was fined £650,000 by HM Revenue and Customs for flooding the market in Belgium, which resulted in its brands being illicitly diverted back to the UK. BAT denied complicity, saying it could not tell who would buy cigarettes at lower prices in another European country and bring them back to the UK.

Under the World Health Organisation’s tobacco treaty, a protocol on illicit trade was agreed in 2012, requiring among other things for all cigarette packs to have overt and covert markings to ensure they can be traced. The industry has produced its own system, called Codentify. Developed by Philip Morris International and shared with other major companies, it was then passed to a third party organisation called Inexto, which the industry says is independent even though it is run by former tobacco industry executives.

The European commission’s proposals say an organisation or company can be considered independent if it gets no more than 20% of its income from the tobacco industry. Campaigners say they fear this may still let the tobacco industry have control over any track and trace system.

Deborah Arnott, chief executive of health charity Ash, said, “We’re delighted that the EU is consulting on the regulations needed to put in place a European-wide tracking and tracing system for tobacco products, which is vital to prevent Big Tobacco from facilitating smuggling of its products. The UK, which continues to have a big problem with smuggling, must be part of such a system whatever happens with Brexit.”

But she said it was not clear that an organisation running the system would be completely independent of the industry under the commission’s proposals.

“We need to go through the draft regulations with a fine-tooth comb, but from an initial look we already have some concerns. It’s possible that Codentify, Big Tobacco’s tracking and tracing system, might fit the bill because it has been transferred to a third party. So it might look financially independent, despite the fact it’s an industry product which is run by former tobacco company executives. For a tracking and tracing system to be fully effective it has to be truly independent of Big Tobacco – that’s the bottom line.”

The Smoke Free Partnership, an anti-tobacco NGO which has been a major campaigner on the issue in Europe, said it was very pleased the commission managed to submit its proposals on time, but it is concerned.

“What we are going to look at very specifically is the notion of independence and whether the different commercial organisations and entities will fit the bill,” said Florence Berteletti, its director. “The notion of independence would be so much simpler if they had said zero links to the tobacco industry.”

In a statement, the partnership said: “We trust that the commission and member states will be vigilant and resist attempts by the industry to push for its own system through third parties or position itself as a partner of national authorities in the tracking and tracing of its products.”