One senior Afghanistan analyst said 90 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product is from foreign spending and that the $3 billion it raises through taxes doesn't cover the annual $4 billion it costs to run its security forces. "James Dobbins concluded to remain stable Afghanistan has to keep the security forces together and that an abrupt break with the US would be a major threat to stability which could lead to civil war. It's not a threat, it's a scenario," he said.