There has been a spate of accidents involving cyclists in the past couple of weeks. Previous deaths resulted in the NSW roads minister, Duncan Gay, considering measures such as a licensing system for cyclists, and barring cyclists from certain roads. Queensland recently implemented a minimum passing distance for motorists overtaking cyclists.



Given these developments, it is worth taking a look at the safety statistics for cyclists in Australia. Are things getting better or worse?



In the past year and a half cyclists have increased their share in the road toll, due to a proportional increase in deaths in 2013 and 2014:



In 2014 there were 26 deaths between January and May. There were 17 in the same period last year. So the trend points to a further increase in annual deaths.

These are total and proportional figures. It is also important to know if the rate of deaths for cyclists is increasing or decreasing, but without solid numbers on the number of cyclists and share of travel by bicycle, it is difficult to determine the death rate.



One 2010 study I came across estimated the death rate per billion kilometres travelled for cars and bikes in Sydney and Melbourne. While acknowledging some problems because of the limited data, the authors put the death rate at 1.18 per 1bn kilometres for Melbourne in 2008, and 3.91 per 1bn kilometres for Sydney in 2005. The equivalent rate for car occupants was 0.26 and 0.35 respectively. If you know of any more current research please let me know in the comments.



It is also difficult to compare Australia with the rest of the world as deaths are directly linked to the cycling participation rate – measurement of which is sporadic, at best. The Netherlands, for example, has the highest percentage of cyclist deaths by road user type out of 29 countries surveyed by the OECD, but it also has the highest rate of bicycle travel per inhabitant a year.



International comparison of bicycle travel and fatalities. Graphic: OECD Cycling Health and Safety

From the Australian road deaths database we can examine the worst times of the day and week. Visualising the death statistics by hour and day shows hotspots in the late afternoon and early morning on weekdays, possibly due to a combination of commuting and poor light conditions. The weekend trend is more spread out over the day.



Cyclist fatalities by time of day, 1989-2014. Click to enlarge. Graphic: the Guardian

Here's the same visualisation, but for drivers:



Driver fatalities by time of day, 1989-2014. Click to enlarge. Graphic: the Guardian

Here we see a far greater concentration of deaths early on Saturday and Sunday mornings, as well as Friday nights. There is a similar concentration around the commuter hours in the late afternoon.



Analyses of the cause of collisions have had varying outcomes. An OECD cycling report said 60% of cyclists were at fault in fatal crashes in Australia, compared with 24% in Denmark and 40% in Spain. Other studies have found the opposite, putting drivers at fault in 87% and 80% of accidents.

