Kyle Anthony

Event: (24847) William Knight at (24848) Aleksa Camur

Sport/League: MMA

Date/Time: September 26, 2020 9PM EDT

Play: William Knight +140

Play for UFC 253: Preliminary Undercard Fight Saturday night

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This is a great spot to bet the dog here... solid value play!

Aleksa Camur is coming into this fight undefeated after winning on Dana White's Contender Series KOing Fabio Cherant. The fight was interesting as in round 1 Camur was walking Fabio down, but wasn't pulling the trigger. Low level exchanges even with open opportunities to fire Camur settled for the safer route. Round 2 Fabio turned up the pressure pushing forward landing a BIG shot that rocked Camur wobbling him. As Fabio seeked to finish Camur the inexperienced fighter kept himelf open to be countered. On his way in Camur fired a flying knee that landed perfectly dropping Fabio and Camur stopped him with ground and pound in the 2nd round. In Camur's UFC debut he faced Justin Ledet who's 0-3 in his last 3 UFC appereances. Ledet is slow moving with very low level striking and output, but in round 1 Ledet found a lot od success pushing the pace out striking Camur. Ledet was able to block many of Camur's offense early as he telegraphed everything. Even with Ledet's limited skill set he was able to pick up those attacks easy to counter. Camur was only seeking the big shot as Ledet kept throwing more sound shots landing on Camur early. Heading into round 2 Ledet's volume was kept low but he was still having success, Camur was throwing more volume but landing much less. Heading into round 3 I thought Ledet was up 2 round to none and the final round was Camur's best...but still an unimpressive showing for Aleksa Camur. The judges saw it differently and gave the W to Camur in an ugly UFC debut.

On the other side is William Knight, a massive man with power and strength. Knight also won on Dana's White's Contender Series defeating a tough Cody Brundage. In this bout Brundage didn't want to stand toe to toe with Knight and pushed hard for an early takedown. Once down Cody was in top control and seeking to do damage, but the high school state champion wrestler in Knight was not only able to reverse position, but got on top displayng a lot of strength and landed heavy shots putting Cody away in round 1.

With that being said, I like the price on Knight here. He is a raw talent with many tools he can continue to evelate. The strong wrestling background is a great foundation to his game, the power he also has provides a lot to overcome for any opponent at this beginning level of a UFC career. While Camur has one UFC fight under his belt, it wasn't the best showing. The only reason the market is giving him the favorite odds is due just to that, one UFC fight. He just hasn't shown much and if Knight gets in tight using his wrestling, I believe he can overwhelm Camur, pressuring him into uncomfortable situations to find a finish or outwork him on the scorecards. At +140 price tag giving us an implied probability of 41%, I'd definitely cap his chances much higher to get the win Saturday night.

Play: William Knight +140

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