Almost all of Europe’s social democratic parties are in crisis. It doesn’t matter if their leaderships hail from the right – like Germany’s Social Democrats, currently hovering around 20% in opinion polls – or from the left, like Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour. The scale, the specifics, all differ, but the common theme is crisis.

Labour could slump to below 150 MPs, Fabian Society warns Read more

In some countries, such as Greece and Poland, they have all but ceased to exist; towards the better end, Sweden’s Social Democrats cling on in a weak coalition minority government. From dramatic demographic shifts to the rise of nativist populism; from new radical left movements to our model of globalisation; from traditional voters disillusioned with their parties’ embrace of cuts to the rise of civic nationalist movements – well, where do you even begin?

Today, the Fabian society has released a sobering (to say the least) report looking at British Labour’s own existential plight. In the often bitterly polarised world of Labour politics, there will be two predictable responses. One is, aha, everything is Corbyn’s fault, if only he rebranded as a self-described “moderate” (whatever that means), Labour would somehow buck the entire trend of European social democracy. The other – from the more uncritical leadership loyalists – is to dismiss the report as enemy propaganda and respond “pah, polling!” (even though, while big polling errors do happen, it is always to Labour’s detriment). Both are mistakes that prevent Labour from addressing its very serious woes.

Labour is too big to fail, say the Fabians: that is, the electoral system prevents it from being replaced as the main opposition party. It is, however, extremely unlikely to win a majority whenever the general election takes place, and could even fall to between 140 and 150 seats.. But perhaps the biggest current existential crisis – and there are many – is the legacy of the EU referendum. Labour’s electoral coalition includes both ardent remainers and ardent leavers. The party has already lost four times as many leave voters as remain voters, note the Fabians: underlining why if Owen Smith – who backed a second referendum and refused to rule out joining the euro and the Schengen agreement – had won in September, Labour’s current plight could be even worse. And yet at the same time the party is losing remain supporters to the Liberal Democrats; perhaps even the Greens. Whichever way Labour turns, it risks critical bits of its electoral coalition crumbling away. Hence, paralysis: the party’s position on the defining issue of our time – Brexit – undeniably lacks clarity.

Labour has to confront many crises that have nothing to do with Corbyn: Scotland is just one, where Labour’s brittle dominance was smashed away in the aftermath of the referendum. Thanks to medical advances, we live in an ageing population: but with every general election, Labour loses older supporters – the demographic most likely to vote. Unless it reverses this trend, it will never win again, explaining the commendable determination of the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, to defend the triple lock on pensions.

Labour’s right are miserable, but their more thoughtful proponents accept they lack strategy, vision or ideas. They have no obvious routemap back to power. They cannot realistically point to a single other country and say – this is what Labour should be doing (unless they wish to emulate the Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau’s electoral victory on the back of pledging to borrow to invest). They can say Corbyn isn’t working but they can’t outline what would work instead. They are intellectually barren and politically lost, and they would be whether Corbyn was leader or not.

Research suggests that voters don’t think Labour is too leftwing, they just don’t know what the party stands for

That is not to ignore the failings of the Labour leadership. Corbyn originally stood for leader out of a sense of duty, to put policies on the agenda. His upper expectations were to win between 20 and 25% of the vote: he won nearly 60% instead, thanks to the ineptitude of his opponents and their lack of vision. The most experienced politician would have struggled against a concerted media offensive and a lack of parliamentary support, let alone a backbench rebel long consigned to the wilderness. The leadership made lots of mistakes that cut through. There was a collective failure of the left (the likes of me included): we have long trapped ourselves in a defensive posture and lacked a clear vision of our own, other than saying “stop!” to policies we didn’t like.

Political leadership means saying, here’s what’s wrong with society, here’s what our vision of what society is instead, here’s how we get there. It means hammering at key messages ad infinitum, backed up with policies that are indicative of where the party is coming from. It means speaking in an everyday language that resonates beyond politicos, and having lots to say to the average Briton who is neither poor nor well-off. This has been lacking, and Labour often seems missing from political debate, although some relatively recent appointees (such as Corbyn’s press officer, Matt Zarb-Cousin, and his colleague James Schneider) are determined to change that. Research suggests that voters don’t think Labour is too leftwing, whatever the Labour right argue; they just don’t know what the party stands for. And if you don’t define yourself, you will be defined – mercilessly – by your opponents. Yes, we have a viciously rightwing media, but they are not going to vanish: there just needs to be a sophisticated strategy to deal with them.

In today’s fraught political climate, there are some who respond that this critique is only offered because I’m a careerist, secretly rightwing, motivated by money, or part of a Guardian conspiracy against the Labour leadership. In truth, it’s because I want a genuinely radical Labour leadership to succeed: one that invests, rather than cuts; that forces the rich to pay a fair share of tax; that gives workers rights, security, and dignity; that confronts climate change, and treats it as an opportunity to promote the industries and jobs of the future; that brings our services under the ownership of the people of this country; that stops forcing young people to suffer the brunt of a crisis they had nothing to do with; that makes high-quality, affordable housing a basic right for every citizen.

However, if Labour loses terribly in an election, the left gets blamed, the party shifts off to the right in response, and the country is even more consumed with rightwing populism, then those things will (to put it bluntly) not happen. The Fabian report has some interesting analysis, but no solutions other than chasing an indecipherable “cultural ‘middle’”. Nonetheless, let’s not ignore challenges: let’s confront them and resolve to overcome them. Come on, Labour. A new year, a new start: let’s see the compelling alternative this country so desperately needs.