by Vincent Verhei

Only ten pass plays in all of 2016 have gained 80 yards or more, and three of them came in Week 16. The longest of those was an 86-yarder from Andy Dalton to Brandon LaFell in the fourth quarter of Cincinnati's loss to Houston. There were also a pair of 80-yard plays: Carson Palmer to J.J. Nelson in the second quarter of Arizona's win over Seattle, and Alex Smith to Travis Kelce in the first quarter of Kansas City's Christmas Day win over Denver. There was also a 71-yard passing play this week, from Sam Bradford to Adam Thielen in the second quarter of Minnesota's loss to Green Bay.

Four plays, 317 total yards gained. Must have been a bunch of deep-ball passes out of seven-step drops, right? Well, wrong. Palmer's pass to Nelson was caught 46 yards past the line of scrimmage, with 36 yards after the catch. Bradford's big play was also caught deep downfield, gaining almost as many yards through the air (33) as after the catch (38). LaFell's catch, though, was caught only 5 yards downfield, while Kelce's ball was actually caught right at the line of scrimmage.

Going down the list of explosive completions this week, we continue to find a mix of dumpoffs, bombs, and everything in between:

DeSean Jackson: 15 yards in the air, 42 YAC, 57 total.

DeVante Parker: 4 yards in the air, 52 YAC, 56 total.

Sammy Watkins: 49 yards in the air, 4 YAC, 53 total.

Travis Benjamin: 45 yards in the air, 5 YAC, 50 total.

Jordy Nelson: 22 yards in the air, 26 YAC, 48 total.

When you think about it, it's kind of silly to just bundle all these together and put them in a bin called "passing plays." Obviously, the less distance a pass travels down the field, the more likely it is to be completed, but the more reliant it is upon the receiver to gain yards on the ground. Deeper passes, meanwhile, are reliant on a quarterback's arm strength and accuracy to get to the right place at the right time, and any yards they produce after that point are just icing on the cake. This is an oversimplification, of course -- an accurate quarterback will give his receivers more opportunities to make big plays out of short routes than one who is constantly throwing behind his guys, while receivers like Mike Evans can help their quarterbacks by winning 50-50 jump balls downfield. Regardless, we can probably learn something about quarterbacks by analyzing their throws at various distances rather than lumping all their passes together.

So… let's try to learn something about quarterbacks by analyzing their throws at various distances. The following tables show the passing stats for each of the 34 quarterbacks this year with at least 200 pass plays. (This list is unlikely to grow -- Josh McCown and Blaine Gabbert are next in line with 186 and 175 pass plays respectively, but both have been healthy scratches as of late.) I then checked the DVOA for each quarterback in each of the following ranges:

Short: Passes thrown to receivers within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage.

Passes thrown to receivers within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. Medium: Passes thrown to receivers 6 to 15 yards downfield.

Passes thrown to receivers 6 to 15 yards downfield. Deep: Passes thrown to receivers 16 to 25 yards downfield.

Passes thrown to receivers 16 to 25 yards downfield. Bomb: Passes thrown to receivers 26-plus yards downfield.

For this essay, we are looking only at completions, incompletions, interceptions, defensive pass interference calls, and incomplete laterals -- in other words, plays where quarterbacks actually attempted to throw to someone. No scrambles, sacks, aborted snaps, or other weirdness. For that reason, the DVOAs in these tables will be somewhat inflated, because we are comparing each pass at each distance to all passing plays -- including those sacks and aborted snaps.

Without any further ado, here are the best and worst passers this year when it comes to short-range throws:

Best and Worst Short Passers, 2016 Best

Worst Name Team DVOA Passes Name Team DVOA Passes 2-M.Ryan ATL 39.8% 243 16-J.Goff LARM -38.4% 102 4-D.Prescott DAL 28.0% 183 12-M.Barkley CHI -33.9% 71 2-B.Hoyer CHI 27.5% 101 1-C.Newton CAR -33.1% 157 3-C.Palmer ARI 16.6% 238 13-T.Siemian DEN -28.4% 202 9-D.Brees NO 16.5% 350 17-B.Osweiler HOU -22.9% 226 Passes thrown within 5 yards of line of scrimmage. Minimum 200 total passes.

These plays include things like screen and swing passes to receivers behind the line of scrimmage, as well as very quick curl and slant routes. They are almost entirely reliant on the receiver making plays with the ball in his hands to gain significant yardage.

In Matt Ryan's case, the primary receiver on those routes has been Devonta Freeman (51 targets), though Tevin Coleman, Julio Jones, and Mohamed Sanu have each seen 30-plus targets at this range. This is one of the reasons Atlanta's offense has been so successful this year -- they have multiple weapons who can make a big play out of nothing.



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Dak Prescott's top targets on short passes have been Jason Witten, Cole Beasley, and Ezekiel Elliott; Carson Palmer has leaned on David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. On the other hand, Brian Hoyer (five players with 11 to 21 targets) and Drew Brees (six with 34 to 58) have spread the ball around more. With the notable exception of Prescott, the best quarterbacks at this range are all in their 30s, which suggests that success here is largely based on having the experience to know when to throw short -- and when not to.

Jared Goff's numbers are based on only 201 pass plays in six starts and are going to be a little hinky, but it's surprising to see that his top receivers on short throws have been Lance Kendricks and Kenny Britt, not Tavon Austin and Todd Gurley. Matt Barkley's presence here is a surprise, considering the success his teammate Hoyer had on similar short throws. Perhaps it's because Barkley focused so much on Cameron Meredith (21 targets) and Jordan Howard (18) and didn't look for other options. On the other hand, Cam Newton had seven players between 12 and 28 targets, and it didn't do him any good. Trevor Siemian and Brock Osweiler bring up the rear, showing again that young quarterbacks seem to struggle here -- and that the 2015 Broncos won the Super Bowl with some really bad quarterbacks on their roster.

And now, the medium passers.





Best and Worst Medium Passers, 2016 Best

Worst Name Team DVOA Passes Name Team DVOA Passes 12-T.Brady NE 88.3% 104 16-J.Goff LARM -70.0% 61 9-D.Brees NO 65.0% 172 14-R.Fitzpatrick NYJ -44.4% 122 17-P.Rivers SD 56.1% 171 17-C.Keenum LARM -7.3% 93 8-K.Cousins WAS 52.6% 170 7-C.Kaepernick SF 8.2% 113 8-M.Mariota TEN 52.6% 177 10-E.Manning NYG 11.0% 173 Passes thrown 6 to 15 yards past line of scrimmage. Minimum 200 total passes.

At this distance we're looking at things like crossing routes, ins, and some shorter curls. These are more difficult for a quarterback to complete, but often still give a receiver a chance to get some yards after the catch.



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And on that note, Julian Edelman has been a big reason Tom Brady has been so successful at this distance, with twice as many targets at this range as any other Patriots player. Drew Brees has gotten big results by throwing to Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas, and Willie Snead. Philip Rivers has often targeted Antonio Gates here, but also Dontrelle Inman and Tyrell Williams. You can probably guess Kirk Cousins' top targets: Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, and Jordan Reed. And this is the range in which Marcus Mariota excels, throwing to Rishard Mathews, Tajae Sharpe, and Delanie Walker.

The Rams' Jared Goff shows up in last place again -- though Case Keenum's struggles at the same distance indicate that the troubles in Los Angeles go beyond the quarterback. Like Keenum, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Colin Kaepernick have spent parts of 2016 on the bench, so no shock to see their names on this list. But Eli Manning? What's he doing here? Perhaps the problem is that he has been forcing the ball to his favorite receiver -- Odell Beckham has 60 targets at this range, 12 more than any other Giants receiver.

As for the deep routes…

Best and Worst Deep Passers, 2016 Best

Worst Name Team DVOA Passes Name Team DVOA Passes 12-T.Brady NE 171.7% 44 17-B.Osweiler HOU -51.6% 51 4-D.Carr OAK 145.0% 54 5-J.Flacco BAL -10.9% 56 17-R.Tannehill MIA 139.4% 30 5-B.Bortles JAC 4.8% 80 6-C.Kessler CLE 126.0% 22 10-E.Manning NYG 9.2% 58 8-S.Bradford MIN 118.1% 50 17-P.Rivers SD 15.8% 70 Passes thrown 16 to 25 yards past line of scrimmage. Minimum 200 total passes.

Now we're moving deep into the defensive backfield. These are the deep outs and seam routes that test the limits of secondaries. In some cases they require more arm strength than even long bombs, because throws must hit receivers in tight windows in the defense that usually don't stay open for long.

And this, in turn, suggests that Brady's arm strength is just fine at age 39. And it's not just because Rob Gronkowski was making big catches downfield before he got hurt -- Edelman has actually been Brady's most frequent target at this distance. Derek Carr got the Raiders into the playoffs in large part by throwing deep balls to Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree -- we'll see if Matt McGloin can have similar success. Ryan Tannehill, like Carr, was at his best on deep passes -- and like Carr, he will be watching the playoffs from the sidelines (or will he?). Sam Bradford's name here is unexpected, considering that Minnesota's sorry offensive line would theoretically give him few chances to make plays downfield. As for Cody Kessler, he is listed here mainly due to Terrelle Pryor, who was the target on 11 of Kessler's 30 deep passes.

When you look at the names on the right side of this table, you find some of the NFL's most overpaid players. Joe Flacco, in particular, was given $44 million guaranteed mainly because his strong arm was supposed to deliver big results downfield. Philip Rivers and Eli Manning were once traded for each other, and both have had their arm strength questioned in recent years. As for Brock Osweiler and Blake Bortles, well, who knows if either will be starting in 2017.

We'll close out with the home run hitters.

Best and Worst Bomb Passers, 2016 Best

Worst Name Team DVOA Passes Name Team DVOA Passes 2-M.Ryan ATL 192.3% 34 12-M.Barkley CHI -42.3% 18 8-K.Cousins MIA 172.0% 42 2-B.Hoyer CHI -36.8% 11 12-A.Luck IND 161.5% 37 16-J.Goff LARM -35.6% 8 14-A.Dalton CIN 153.8% 33 5-B.Bortles JAC -33.7% 35 9-M.Stafford DET 135.5% 31 11-C.Wentz PHI -29.3% 28 Passes thrown 25-plus yards past line of scrimmage. Minimum 200 total passes.

Now we're talking the highlight patterns -- corner, fly, and post routes designed to flip field position in an instant.



So, in conclusion, Ryan has been at his best throwing very short and very long. (He was eighth in medium throws and sixth in long passes, so he's good at those too.) Ryan has had some big games without Julio Jones this year, but not many big catches -- Jones has been the target on 17 of Ryan's 34 bomb passes. It's a similar story for Kirk Cousins (DeSean Jackson has been the target on 21 of 42 bombs) and Andy Dalton (A.J. Green 16 of 33). Andrew Luck and Matthew Stafford, though, have split the bulk of their bombs between two players each: T.Y. Hilton (15) and Phillip Dorsett (14) in Indianapolis, Marvin Jones (13) and Golden Tate (12) in Detroit.

We opened this analysis noting the difference between Hoyer and Barkley, but they did have one thing in common: miserable results on home-run balls. The first order of business in Chicago is figuring out who is going to play quarterback next year, but the next item on the to-do list might be finding a reliable downfield threat. We shouldn't put too much stock in Goff's numbers, especially here, where he has thrown only eight bomb passes all year. (Ben Roethlisberger threw nine in one game against Week 9 against Baltimore.) Bortles is, well, Bortles, while the inability to connect on home-run balls is the biggest hole in Carson Wentz's game.

Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 1. Aaron Rodgers GB 28/38 347 4 0 4 175 163 13 MIN Using the terminology defined in this essay, Rodgers didn't do much on short passes, but excelled at medium, deep, and bomb throws: 14-of-21 for 283 yards and three touchdowns. 2. Tyrod Taylor BUF 26/39 329 3 0 2 156 157 -1 MIA Taylor was best against Miami when throwing to his right: 16-of-21 for 245 yards and three touchdowns. 3. Dak Prescott DAL 15/20 212 3 0 1 151 145 6 DET Third downs: 3-of-5 for 51 yards with three conversions, including touchdowns of 25 and 21 yards. 4. Drew Brees NO 23/34 299 1 0 2 140 143 -3 TB Brees struggled at either end of the field, but was lights-out between the 20s: 18-of-24 for 273 yards and 14 first downs, with a 12-yard DPI and one sack. 5. Alex Smith KC 25/36 244 1 1 0 134 103 30 DEN Smith only threw three passes that traveled 10 or more yards downfield. None were caught; one was intercepted. His receivers produced a league-high 183 yards after the catch this week, exactly 75 percent of his overall total. 6. Russell Wilson SEA 29/45 350 4 0 6 128 134 -7 ARI Wilson is just the tenth quarterback since 1950 to throw four touchdown passes and give up six sacks in the same game. His last four throws of this game all went for first downs (including two touchdowns), gaining 79 yards and 92 DYAR in the process. 7. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 24/31 279 3 2 0 122 122 0 BAL Take away all fourth quarters from all quarterbacks this week and Roethlisberger was in the bottom five in DYAR. He led all quarterbacks, though in fourth-quarter DYAR, going 14-of-15 for 164 yards and two touchdowns, with a 16th throw resulting in a 35-yard DPI. 8. Kirk Cousins WAS 18/29 270 1 0 0 116 90 26 CHI Not that it matters, since Washington won by 20 points, but Cousins wasn't very good in the red zone: 3-of-7 for 24 yards and only one first down (a 17-yard touchdown to Chris Thompson). 9. Blake Bortles JAC 26/38 325 1 0 2 109 80 5 TEN Bortles' total DYAR includes 24 DYAR for his 20-yard touchdown catch. By DYAR, he was actually Jacksonville's second-most valuable receiver on the day. 10. Carson Palmer ARI 16/26 284 1 0 1 105 105 0 SEA It's kind of amazing that Arizona scored 34 points even though Palmer failed to convert a single third down, going 2-of-6 for 12 yards. 11. Andrew Luck IND 19/29 288 2 2 0 89 87 1 OAK 12. Matt Ryan ATL 27/33 277 2 0 4 84 84 1 CAR Ryan would rank much higher if we ignored the end of this game. His last play of the third quarter was a sack-fumble. Then he had just one first down in the fourth, going 5-of-7 for 41 yards and a sack, with 31 of those yards coming on that one conversion. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 13. Derek Carr OAK 21/30 228 3 0 1 78 76 2 IND Carr started off just 1-of-7 for 11 yards, but then caught fire in the middle of the game -- no quarterback had more DYAR in the second and third quarters this week. Then came the fourth quarter, the saddest that Carr or the Raiders have seen in a long, long time. 14. Tom Brady NE 17/27 214 3 0 1 76 76 0 NYJ A game of streaks. Brady started 6-of-8 for 70 yards and a touchdown. Then he went 3-of-9 for 14 yards, and then he produced first downs on five straight throws (four completions and a DPI, gaining 134 yards and two touchdowns in the process. And that was all just in the first half! 15. Carson Wentz PHI 13/23 152 1 1 0 73 57 16 NYG Wentz's game was the opposite of Brady's. He started 3-of-6 for 25 yards and an interception, and finished 5-of-11 for 44 yards. In between, he went 5-of-6 for 83 yards and a touchdown. 16. Sam Bradford MIN 34/50 382 3 0 4 54 52 2 GB 17. Matt Moore MIA 16/29 233 2 1 0 52 52 0 BUF Streaks seem to be the theme of this week. In the first half, Moore went 6-of-15 for 61 yards. Then he completed each of his first seven passes of the second half, including six straight first downs at one point, for 146 total yards. And then he shut down, going 4-of-8 for 30 yards the rest of the way. 18. Colin Kaepernick SF 28/38 266 2 1 4 45 39 6 LARM 19. Joe Flacco BAL 30/44 262 1 1 2 33 33 0 PIT Flacco's performance in scoring range shows how completion percentage can be a misleading stat. Inside the Pittsburgh 40 he went 11-of-17. That's 65 percent, which is about average. However, those 11 completions produced only 63 yards, and only two first downs. Five were failed completions. He was also sacked once. 20. Eli Manning NYG 38/63 356 1 3 0 25 25 0 PHI Red zone passing: one 4-yard touchdown to Odell Beckham, but otherwise, 3-of-9 for 6 yards and no first downs. 21. Marcus Mariota TEN 8/20 99 1 0 2 3 2 1 JAC Forgive me for kicking a man when he's down, but Mariota threw eight passes that traveled at least 14 yards past the line of scrimmage against Jacksonville, and all were incomplete. 22. Matt Cassel TEN 13/22 124 1 1 1 -3 -3 0 JAC All of Cassel's passes came with Tennessee down by at least 14 points in the second half. Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total

DYAR Pass

DYAR Rush

DYAR Opp 23. Matt Barkley CHI 24/40 323 2 5 1 -4 -4 0 WAS Speaking of cold streaks, here's what Barkley did in a 15-minute stretch of this game starting about five minutes into the third quarter: In 12 passes, he completed as many to his teammates (four, for 46 yards) as he did to the Washington defense. Total DYAR in that "quarter:" minus-161. 24. Andy Dalton CIN 28/41 268 1 1 3 -6 -6 0 HOU Here's another cold streak: Dalton's first 13 passes against the Texans produced seven completions, 40 yards, and zero first downs. 25. Robert Griffin CLE 17/25 164 0 0 7 -10 -26 16 SD And another: Griffin closed this game completing five of his last six passes. That sounds good, but those completions gained only 25 yards and one first down. Two of them went backwards. Worse, there were four sacks scattered amongst those ten dropbacks, one of which knocked Griffin out of the game, and perhaps out for the season, and out of Cleveland forever. 26. Tom Savage HOU 18/29 176 0 0 4 -12 -17 5 CIN Savage did not pick up a first down in the first half, going 2-of-7 for 13 yards. In one six-play sequence he went sack-sack-sack-incomplete-incomplete-incomplete. Now go back and read Andy Dalton's comment. This was the late game on Christmas Eve -- it was probably going to have a small audience no matter what, and that start might have driven all the viewers away. 27. Jameis Winston TB 24/35 277 2 2 2 -19 -14 -5 NO 28. Philip Rivers SD 23/44 295 2 1 0 -28 -28 0 CLE 29. Trevor Siemian DEN 16/42 171 0 1 0 -43 -43 0 KC Siemian's cold streak was really just "most of this game." From the middle of the second quarter to the end, he picked up only three first downs and went 8-of-25 for 85 yards and an interception. 30. Matthew Stafford DET 26/46 260 0 1 4 -62 -72 10 DAL 31. Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 8/21 136 0 2 0 -67 -67 0 NE All of Fitzpatrick's passes came with the Jets down by 13 points or more (much more, usually) in the second half. 32. Jared Goff LARM 11/24 90 1 2 4 -156 -156 1 SF In the final three quarters of the game against a terrible San Francisco defense, Goff went 8-of-18 for 40 yards (not a typo) with only two first downs: a 9-yard gain on second-and-9, and a 2-yard touchdown. He did gain16 yards and another first down on a DPI, but he also gave up an interception and three sacks. 33. Cam Newton CAR 18/43 198 1 2 2 -159 -156 -3 ATL Cam Newton's strength, as a passer, has always been a one-of-a-kind arm that produces big plays on long passes. Against Atlanta, he threw 15 passes that traveled at least 13 yards past the line of scrimmage, and only one was complete (a 26-yard touchdown), while one was also intercepted. He had streaks in this game of eight and six incompletions in a row, and in another stretch went 2-of-7 for 14 yards with an interception. He also went 0-for-5 in the red zone. Throwing to his right, he went 4-of-19 (not a typo) for 34 yards (not a typo either).

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

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TD Total

DYAR Rush

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DYAR Opp 1. Le'Veon Bell PIT 20 122 1 3/4 15 1 91 86 6 BAL Baltimore's run defense DVOA was still best in the league coming into the weekend. Bell ripped them for nine first downs and four runs of 10 yards or more, while getting hit for no gain or a loss just twice. 2. Zach Zenner DET 12 67 2 2/3 25 0 59 49 10 DAL Three runs of 10-plus yards, six first downs, two stuffs for no gain or a loss. 3. Tevin Coleman ATL 9 90 1 3/3 45 0 50 30 20 CAR A touchdown run of 55 yards, another run for 15 yards, and just one hit for no gain or a loss. Also had catches of 12 and 31 yards. 4. David Johnson ARI 28 93 3 4/7 41 0 46 38 8 SEA Not a lot of pop against Seattle's very good run defense -- only three of his 28 runs gained 10 yards or more, while he was hit for no gain or a loss eight times and also had a fumble. But he also produced 10 first downs on the ground, and also had catches of 13 and 29 yards. 5. DeAndre Washington OAK 12 99 2 1/1 18 0 37 29 8 IND Four total first downs on the ground, each gaining 10 to 22 yards, while getting hit for no gain just once.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

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DYAR Opp 1. Le'Veon Bell PIT 20 122 1 3/4 15 1 91 86 6 BAL 2. Zach Zenner DET 12 67 2 2/3 25 0 59 49 10 DAL 3. David Johnson ARI 28 93 3 4/7 41 0 46 38 8 SEA 4. Mark Ingram NO 18 90 2 2/3 3 0 25 38 -12 TB Only two 10-plus-yard runs, but six first downs on the ground, while getting hit for no gain or a loss just twice. 5. LeSean McCoy BUF 24 128 1 6/7 17 0 23 34 -12 MIA Yes, he was hit for no gain or a loss six times. But 13 of his 24 runs gained 6 yards or more, four gained 10 yards or more, and five went for first downs.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

Yds Rec

TD Total

DYAR Rush

DYAR Rec

DYAR Opp 1. Ronnie Hillman SD 9 6 0 0/2 0 0 -51 -40 -11 CLE No first downs, no successful runs, a long gain of only 3, and four hits for no gain or a loss.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing) Rk Player Team Runs Rush

Yds Rush

TD Rec Rec

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TD Total

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DYAR Opp 1. Latavius Murray OAK 15 40 0 2/2 11 0 -48 -45 -4 IND Two first downs, but a long gain of just 8 yards, and five hits for no gain or a loss.

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total

DYAR Opp 1. Jordy Nelson GB 9 11 154 17.1 2 94 MIN Eight of Nelson's nine catches produced first downs, including gains of 33 and 48 yards, plus a 21-yard touchdown. 2. Dez Bryant DAL 4 5 70 17.5 2 84 DET Just before deadline, we realized we had forgotten to include DYAR for Bryant's 10-yard touchdown pass. We'll double-check that and add it to his DYAR some time on Tuesday, but for now we will just list his catches: 18-yard gain on second-and-15; 8-yard gain on second-and-7; 25-yard touchdown on third-and-7; 19-yard touchdown on second-and-8. (Ed. Note: Now added, Bryant gets 22 DYAR for the touchdown pass.) 3. Adam Thielen MIN 12 15 202 16.8 2 74 GB Thielen's DYAR total includes 72 DYAR receiving, 2 DYAR rushing for his one carry, a 4-yard gain. Eight of Thielen's receptions produced first downs, including gains of 24 and 32 yards and a 71-yard touchdown. 4. Travis Kelce KC 11 12 160 14.5 1 63 DEN The 80-yard touchdown, obviously, was the big blow, but Kelce's catches produced five other first downs too. 5. Cameron Meredith CHI 9 12 135 15.0 1 57 WAS Meredith had eight first downs on the day, including one on a 15-yard DPI. His longest catch gained 32 yards.