Looking back over the past half century, two catastrophic western mistakes killed off rare opportunities for positive change in Iran. In 1953 a CIA- and MI6-engineered coup reversed the first serious attempt at democracy, way ahead of the rest of the region; and in 2003 the west turned its back on the reformist president, Mohammad Khatami.



As we mark the first year since Iran and the world’s six major powers, including the US and the UK, achieved one the biggest triumphs of diplomacy – the landmark nuclear deal – a third mistake is looming on the scale of the others.



It is becoming increasingly clear that although Iran, in the words of president Barack Obama on Thursday, “is complying with its commitments”, it is not feeling the economic benefits of having unplugged two-thirds of its centrifuges and shipping out 98% of its enriched uranium – in effect rolling back its nuclear programme to the levels required under the Vienna accord.

In his statement on the first anniversary of the nuclear deal, the US president also said that Iran has “filled its plutonium production reactor with concrete, and adopted the most intrusive inspection and verification programme ever negotiated for a nuclear programme”. There was no mention any tangible benefit to Iranians, except for a general statement that sanctions have been lifted.



The trust that Iranian people showed in electing Hassan Rouhani three years ago should not be destroyed by the west

Six months after nuclear-related sanctions were officially lifted, not a single tier-one European bank is prepared to handle Iranian payments. Iran remains locked out of the global financial system, according to its central bank chief, as European banks remain reluctant to do business with Iran, wary of the remaining US sanctions relating to terrorism.



This serious problem has stopped Iran from capitalising on the interest shown by western businesses in returning to the country, or finalising lucrative deals (such as those involving Airbus and Boeing) whose fate remains in doubt.



Iranians are disappointed – 74% of those polled recently say there has been no improvement in their living conditions since the nuclear deal, and 75% of them blame the US for that, saying that the US is preventing the normalisation of trade and economic ties with Tehran. There have been some efforts by Washington, especially by the US secretary of state John Kerry and by London, to address the issue, but no avail.



In less than a year, president Hassan Rouhani must seek re-election, and his nemesis – the former hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – is watching him closely, readying himself for a challenge. Iranians will show no t’arof – the stylised Persian formal politeness – when it comes to evaluating the moderate Rouhani again.



Rouhani, under pressure from supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to publicly admit that the west has not fully lifted sanctions, said on the anniversary that “anyone that initiates the violation of the deal will be the loser on the international arena”. Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif echoed this, saying the agreement he helped to negotiate was a “triumph of diplomacy over coercion”, but warned that the US faces the “same stark choice” as before, and must fulfil its obligations.

Iran nuclear deal: the key points Read more

Sanctions that took years to construct take time to crumble but the west cannot afford to see 22 months of negotiations go to waste. “Iran … has yet to experience the full economic benefits it had expected from the deal, which has weakened reformers like president Hassan Rouhani,” is how a New York Times editorial described the situation last week.



Such restrictions continue to hurt all Iranians, including myself. I was was not allowed to open an HSBC bank account. But the west’s attention has now shifted to other issues. In the US, presidential elections dominate the agenda, and in the UK, the fallout from Brexit overshadows everything else.

Rouhani’s administration has made mistakes. He has been largely silent about appalling human rights violations that have taken place at the hands of the judiciary and Revolutionary Guards which act independently of his government. Iran’s enemies continue to misuse such human rights abuses for their own political purposes – just look at last week’s rally in Paris.



One thing is clear: Rouhani fulfilled his main campaign promise to find a settlement with the west over the country’s nuclear programme. Now, the trust that Iranian people showed in electing him three years ago should not be destroyed by the west.



Last week the Chilcot report examined the mistakes made in the invasion of Iraq in 2003. The report was also a reminder that Iran could have been another Iraq. The west should learn from past mistakes. If Mahmoud Ahmadinejad should rise again, current western policies will be partly responsible.

