Introduction

It's been a long time since my last blog, but here I am, back with a new idea !With the amount of stats and rankings I am analyzing, I figured out that I could try to run a match simulator, and than by extension, a tournament simulator.My first try will be this ESL Cologne qualifier with its interesting format that could lead to a lot of different scenarios (cf. HLTV news http://hltv.org/news/17933-esl-major-qualifier-format-schedule

Principles

1. Team forcesI used my own ranking to determine team forces. Those scores are decomposed in a long term force indicator (achievements) and a short term force indicator (matches and LANs form).2. Prestige and experienceMy hypothesis was to say that teams with a good recent form have a better chance to start their tournament with a win. But further we go in the tournament, more the long term force will matters, because of the team's prestige and experience at high level.Example : EnVyUs has more chance to step up on a decisive game than Fluffy Gangsters.3. UpsetsThis last point fit with the idea that there are more upsets in the first matches of a tournament than in the final ones. I added a bit of randomness on the first matches to fit well this idea.4. HypeA team can benefit the hype due to those early upsets : defeating a bigger opponent can free the mind of the players and lead them to a better result than they could have first expected. A bonus will be given to teams regarding the opponent they defeated in order to model this factor.

Statistics

Here are my starting stats.Forces of the teamsFirst matches odds[INDENT]G2 78% - 22% TyLooFaZe 50% - 50% DignitasGambit 24% - 76% OpTicMouz 92% - 8% Fluffy GangstersEnVyUs 49% - 51% ImmortalsCloud9 90% - 10% EmpireFlipSid3 51% - 49% RenegadesSplyce 29% - 71% HellRaisers[/INDENT]

Results

After thousands of simulations, here are the results I got :1. Qualification chancesThis first graph shows the chance for each team to qualify to the ESL Cologne Major.We can see that G2 has 90% chance to qualify.Mousesports, Immortals, EnVy and Cloud9 being close behind have also a great chance to qualify.The next teams will have to fight harder to make it to the Major : dignitas, OpTic, FaZe and Hellraisers being really close to each others.You can also see the importance of the first match draw in here : Cloud9 and mousesports with their weaker opponents have a boosted overall chance despite being theoretically weaker than EnVy and Immortals. It will also benefit to HellRaisers and OpTic that will be happy to see their rivals dignitas and FaZe fight hard on the first match !2. RecordsWith this format we will have different matches records for the qualified teams. Winning 3 games makes you a qualified team, but some will be quicker than other to reach this goal.That's what this graph is about : show which team have the most chances to be qualified after 3 days..Obviously it's G2 that has the best chances to go back home with a clean 3-0.Mousesports and Cloud9 come just behind due to their easy draws.On the contrary, EnVy & Immortals or Dignitas & FaZe have most chance to qualify on the late stages of the tournament.3. Total distributionBecause we only talked about qualified teams yet, I will show you the full graph, with elimination chances.I won't discuss it a lot, FG and Empire fans should be prepared not to see their teams winning a lot of matches in Katowice this coming week.I will just add another interesting graph to this :The chance to see the teams on a decider match on the last day of the tournament !FaZe fans will probably have to wait a lot before the possible relief..

Conclusion

Analyzing all those graphs, here is the scenario that has the most chance to happen :[INDENT]Day 33-0 G23-0 mousesports0-3 Empire0-3 Fluffy Gangsters[/INDENT][INDENT]Day 43-1 Immortals3-1 Cloud93-1 EnVyUs1-3 Renegades1-3 Gambit1-3 Splyce[/INDENT][INDENT]Final day3-2 dignitas3-2 OpTic3-2 FaZe2-3 HellRaisers2-3 TyLoo2-3 FlipSid3[/INDENT]NB : The draw can totally fuck those predictions up, that's also the beauty of this game and sport in general, everybody can win versus everybody.. That's why we uses probabilities !

Bonus : EURO 2016

Like a lot of things I've posted in here, the first idea came from football first. Here is my simulator results for EURO 2016 !Teams are sorted by their overall chances to advance in the late stages of the competition (better to have 5% win chance and 20% final chance than 6% win chance / 10% finalist).Score displayed is the chance to win the trophy, it was messy when I tried to displayed every chances.

Thanks for reading, Topeiko.