The S&P 500 is less than 1 percent from a new record high, and one technical analyst believes the index will surge past the milestone due to recently subdued volatility.

"The progression of higher highs, higher lows, and reduced realized volatility add conviction to our medium-term bullish outlook," J.P. Morgan technical analyst Jason Hunter wrote in a note Tuesday.

The is now eyeing the January "all-time high after defending tactical support just below 2,800" points, Hunter said. He expects the index to reach about 2,950 as quickly as late summer or early fall, saying "sentiment readings we track have not yet achieved frothy levels that would cause concern for the health of the developing rally."

"Furthermore, the sentiment surveys we monitor do not show an overly optimistic outlook, which in theory suggests long positions have room to expand," Hunter added.

Hunter also pointed to the S&P 500's 50-day moving average and how it is rising as reason to remain bullish.