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Photographer: Michele Limina/Bloomberg Photographer: Michele Limina/Bloomberg

Greek lawmakers begin discussions Wednesday on the alleged role of former senior government officials in a Novartis AG bribery case, which is part of a drug-overpricing scandal that’s estimated to have cost the country about 23 billion euros ($28.7 billion).

Yannis Stournaras Photographer: Yorgos Karahalis /Bloomberg

The case has snared 10 politicians, including former Finance Minister and current Bank of Greece Governor and European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras. All have denied wrongdoing. The Greek parliamentary hearing comes after another ECB Governing Council member, Ilmars Rimsevics of Latvia, was detained over the weekend by the country’s anti-corruption agency on suspicion of securing bribes. He has denied the charges and refused to step down.

The Novartis case in Greece is part of a global pharmaceuticals industry scandal and investigates the Swiss drug-maker’s part in allegedly inflating drug and vaccine prices. The bribery investigation, which has also drawn in two former prime ministers and a European Union commissioner, is roiling the political landscape in Greece as the country prepares for an exit from its bailout program. The case threatens to deepen the public’s disillusionment with established political parties and bolster groups on the extreme, observers said.

“The Greek political system is now in a state of total war,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director at Eurasia Group in London. “Although the impact of the scandal on program exit is likely to be negligible, it is rightly fueling concerns about political stability, especially in the medium term, if elections next year prove inconclusive.”

Ilmars Rimsevics Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

Economic Pain

Stournaras, the two former PMs -- Antonis Samaras and Panagiotis Pikrammenos -- and the EU commissioner for Immigration Dimitris Avramopoulos have denied the allegations, saying they are politically motivated.

Still, the scandal is less likely to aid Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s governing Syriza party than the extreme right and populist movements, said Aristides Hatzis, a professor of law and economics at the University of Athens.

Those responsible are unlikely to be brought to justice because the case is old and past the legal statute of limitation, he said. “It’s not so much about the money the politicians received as a bribe, but more about the fact that their actions resulted in inflating the country’s debt,” he said.

The Novartis Greek probe was submitted to parliament last week by the country’s justice ministry. Lawmakers will vote this week on whether to create an investigative commission on the matter, or leave it with prosecutors.

Antonis Samaras Photographer: Billy H.C. Kwok/Bloomberg

Austerity Years

Samaras filed a lawsuit against Tsipras and Greece’s judicial authorities on Feb. 15 for what he says is a mishandling of the case and false accusations. Tsipras told lawmakers of his parliamentary group on Feb. 12 his government plans to claim all damages against Novartis on behalf of the Greek state.

It’s difficult to estimate the political impact of the case, Nikos Marantzidis, a professor of political science at the University of Macedonia in Thessaloniki said, adding that it will reinforce public disenchantment with the country’s political system, resulting in the rise of extreme-right and populist parties.

Years of austerity has left many Greeks feeling poorer. And while few expect to go back to the easier days before the country blew up in 2010, many say what’s become normal for them can’t last after the economy shrank by 20 percent. One in five people can’t find a job, most for at least a year.

Greece has all the elements that could fuel the rise of far-right movements: an economic crisis, a feeling of national humiliation under its bailout, a lack of faith in state institutions, immigration flows and a sentiment of insecurity. As it moves closer to the exit of its bailout program in August 2018 and as elections scheduled for 2019 draw closer, the political game is likely to turn nasty.

“The next elections are set be very ugly,” Hatzis aid. “The armory will be pulled out since very early and we’re going to see the dirtiest games. ”

— With assistance by Sotiris Nikas