Week 3 is an interesting time in college football. On one hand, it seems as if we've just started this wild ride, and there's so much we don't know. On the other hand, we're already a quarter of the way through the regular season, and with three more top-15 teams falling Saturday, the playoff paths are already coming into view -- or, if you're Wisconsin or Auburn, fading out of sight. And if you're like us, and you spent most of the week glued to The Weather Channel, you know there's a great term that sums this all up nicely: The Cone of Uncertainty.

We know chaos is coming. It's college football, after all. And we've got enough data to start making some reasonable projections. Of course, the certainty of those convictions can vary, and we'll be adjusting our forecast as we go.

But this seems like a good time to test our cones of uncertainty with some of the top contenders and take a stab at separating the good from the lucky, the contenders from the pretenders, and most important, what to do about the impending armageddon that's signaled by Kansas having a winning record.

Kyler Murray was a step ahead of the competition again on Saturday. AP Photo/Matthew Putney

Kyler Murray replacing Baker Mayfield

Certainty Level: Bill Pullman/Bill Paxton

Was it Pullman or Paxton in "Arlington Road"? What about "While You Were Sleeping"? It doesn't matter. They're interchangeable. Same at Oklahoma, where through the first three games of the season, the Sooners are 3-0 and Murray has tallied 1,032 yards, 10 touchdowns and a 93.8 Total QBR. Through three games last season, Mayfield had 1,033 yards, 10 touchdowns and a 94.6 Total QBR.

LSU's SEC hopes

Certainty Level: Nic Cage movie

Watch LSU's offense long enough and it's easy to assume this is a train wreck in the vein of "The Wicker Man" or "Season of the Witch." Joe Burrow is completing fewer than half his passes. The ground game averaged less than three yards a carry against Auburn. The Tigers have yet to top 400 yards of offense in a game. And then, just when you least expect it -- boom! -- an Oscar-worthy performance like "Raising Arizona" or "Leaving Las Vegas." Is LSU good? We don't know. But we do know what Ed Orgeron would say: "Yeahdeygoodgottakeepfocushowboutsomecrawfish."

Wisconsin's playoff hopes

Certainty Level: Inside straight

Let's not write off the Badgers just yet. Saturday's loss to BYU was a devastating one, and perhaps inevitable after two largely lackluster performances to open the season. Still, this is a solid roster, and the schedule still includes opportunities for signature victories against Michigan, Penn State and, given the lack of competition in the division, in the Big Ten title game. This was a bad loss, but no sense folding when there are still some cards to be dealt.

Alabama's dominance

Certainty Level: Death and taxes

Ho-hum, Alabama is really good. Thing is, this team might be the best Nick Saban has had there, and that's borderline terrifying. The Tide went on the road and dominated Ole Miss 62-7, marking the third consecutive game Alabama has scored 50. Believe it or not, that had never happened under Saban. In fact, Alabama's margin of victory through three games is plus-142 -- 27 points better than any other season during this Saban run. Tua Tagovailoa has made this offense so much more dynamic, and if the secondary can hold up against a receiving corps as good as the Rebels have, it's hard to envision where there's a true weakness.

UCF to the New Year's Six

Certainty Level: Nate Silver's calling it

With Boise State's decisive loss to Oklahoma State, the Knights now look like the odds-on favorite to be the Group of 5 rep in the New Year's Six, and it might not be that close. Sure, BYU had a heck of a win over Wisconsin, but it's also carrying around a loss to Cal. USF is 3-0, but narrowly escaped Illinois. FAU, San Diego State, Troy -- they've all got losses. Meanwhile, McKenzie Milton & Co. can officially stake their claim the next two weeks with home dates against FAU and Pitt.

Ohio State's title hopes

Certainty Level: Three credits from graduating

With the rest of the Big Ten imploding, Ohio State pulled out a heck of a victory over TCU in Arlington, Texas, just in time for Urban Meyer's Week 4 return to the sideline. So it sure looks like smooth sailing for the Buckeyes from here. Just don't look too closely at some of the struggles with the Horned Frogs' pass rush, the injury to Nick Bosa or the big plays TCU converted in the pass game. We're sure all of this will be fine. Probably. What could go wrong?

First-year coaches turning things around

Certainty level: Tom Hanks in "Castaway"

Willie Taggart is under fire already at Florida State, and it's not hard to see why. The Seminoles are horrid. But that's true of virtually every team with a new coach this year, with Arkansas, UCLA and Nebraska all among those struggling. In fact, first-year coaches are a combined 11-29 vs. FBS foes so far this year, and only one of those wins -- Mississippi State's at Kansas State -- came against a Power 5 opponent. So sure, maybe they escape these dire situations and find salvation, but odds are Taggart, Kelly and Co. will need to paint a face on a football to find any friends in the short term.

Notre Dame's offense

Certainty Level: M. Night Shyamalan movie

Through three games, Notre Dame has outscored its opponents -- Michigan, Ball State and Vanderbilt -- by an impressive 52-16 margin. But like Shyamalan's movies, the second halves have been chock full of twists and turns. In the opener, Michigan had a chance to tie late in the fourth quarter. In Week 2, Ball State pulled to within eight in the final two minutes. And Saturday, Vandy was a dropped fourth-down grab away from a potentially monstrous upset. So far, the Irish have managed to stick the landing each time, but if this keeps happening, sooner or later we're going to end up with "Lady in the Water."