We Asked People in 7 Key States About the Republican Health Care Bill. They Don’t Like It.

The GOP’s health care bill is overwhelmingly unpopular across seven of the states whose senators will likely decide the fate of the nation’s health care system. We surveyed 5,000 voters in these states, which include purple Clinton states (Colorado and Nevada), purple Trump states (Ohio and Arizona), and the red strongholds of West Virginia, Alaska and Texas. Voters in all seven states were clear: they dislike the bill, they have deep fears about what it would mean for them and for their loved ones, and, crucially, they feel strongly enough about the bill that they plan to vote against senators who support it.

Everybody dislikes the bill

The depth and intensity of this bill’s unpopularity are staggering. In each of these seven states, the percentage who disapprove of the bill outnumber those who approve it by a greater than 2-to-1 margin. No state has more than 8% of voters who strongly approve of the bill, while every state has at least 33% of voters strongly disapprove.

Fig. 1: Senate Health Care Bill Approval

Disapproval of the health care bill cuts across party lines: in 5 of the 7 states, more Republicans strongly disapprove of the bill than strongly approve. In all 7 states, fewer than 20% of independents approve of the bill. In Arizona, 74% of independents disapprove of the bill and only 7% approve of it.

These findings show a decline in approval from a Morning Consult poll on the House’s bill published last week. That poll found 56% of Republicans approving, which was in line only with our poll’s most optimistic state, Alaska. In four other states — Ohio, Arizona, Texas, and West Virginia — we found Republican support for the bill in the low-to-mid-30s.

Morning Consult also painted a sunnier picture of independents: while their poll found 26% of independents approving of the House bill, we found only 8–17% approval in this group.

Across all 7 states, every single ethnic, gender, and age group disapproves of the bill.

What it means for these senators

Senators Cory Gardner (Colorado), Dean Heller (Nevada), Rob Portman (Ohio), Jeff Flake (Arizona), Shelley Moore Capito (West Virginia), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), and Ted Cruz (Texas) have some tough decisions ahead of them. In addition to the human consequences, which we’ll get to, the political ramifications are quite stark. In each state, we asked whether voters would be more likely to re-elect their senator if she or he voted for the bill. In each case, the answer was a resounding no.

Fig. 2: Change in votes for senators who vote for Senate health care bill

In all seven states, far more voters say they would vote against their Senator’s re-election if their Senator votes for the bill. In Alaska, 41% of voters would be less likely to vote for Senator Lisa Murkowski if she votes for the bill; only 14% would be more likely to vote for her (the rest have already firmly decided on their vote). In Arizona, nearly four times as many voters (34% to 9%) would be less likely to vote for Senator Jeff Flake if he supports the bill. In all seven states, at least twice as many voters say that a vote for the bill was an act they would punish rather than reward.

People are afraid of this bill.

We asked voters about the fears, as well as the hopes, they have about the Senate bill. We found that while their fears abound, their hopes are sparse. Across all seven states, large percentages of voters — majorities, in some states — worry most about coverage for pre-existing conditions, increases in costs, and the likelihood of losing or being unable to afford coverage.

Fig. 3: Worries about Senate health care bill

Fig. 4: Hopes about Senate health care bill

Worries about losing coverage, rising costs, and difficulty finding care for pre-existing conditions are widespread across the population: between 64 and 80% express worry that they would be personally affected by at least one of these issues.

Meanwhile, voters are pessimistic about the bill’s potential positive effects. The most cited benefit is affordability, but only 20% of voters express a belief that the bill would make insurance more affordable. Under 10% of voters in each state think it would improve the quality of their insurance, think it would cover care that isn’t currently covered, or think it would allow someone they knew to gain insurance.

In all seven states, at least 67% of respondents believe the Republican bill would bring about no positive changes at all.

What kind of system would people like?

Though the Senate health care bill is extremely unpopular, voters gave only lukewarm approval to the current system. The Affordable Care Act (ACA)’s approval ratings range from the high 30s to the mid-40s in all but West Virginia, where Obamacare is deeply unpopular.

Fig. 5: Ideal health care system

What’s perhaps most surprising is what voters would prefer: in every one of the states we surveyed, voters’ ideal system would be single-payer. In five of these states, a single-payer system was the favorite by a double-digit margin. In two states — Nevada and Ohio — a single-payer system beat out all other alternatives by 20 points. In Alaska, meanwhile, voters preferred it by 8 points to the pre-ACA system, and in West Virginia, those two were tied.

Poll Details

The poll was conducted online among residents of Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Texas, West Virginia, Alaska, and Arizona from June 22–25. At least 500 (self-identified) registered voters were surveyed in each state. State-specific sample errors are +/- 5 points (or less). Post stratification was performed on age, race, gender, and 2016 presidential vote.

About Change Research

Change Research is led by two veteran data scientists and a longtime political and communications leader. Change Research empowers candidates and causes to better serve their constituents with sophisticated polling technology, dramatically increasing the sample size and accuracy of online surveys while slashing costs. Change Research brings powerful polling techniques within reach of all candidates regardless of their budget and technical expertise.

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