Strong Liberal majority in the cards



In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1624 Canadian voters, the Liberals have opened up a convincing 16 point lead on the Conservatives (44% to 28%), while the NDP has ticked downwards to less than a fifth (18%). This is in comparison with this time last month, when the Liberal lead was a more modest 8 points (June 18, Liberals - 39%, Conservatives - 31%). Few will vote Bloc Quebecois (5% of total, 20% in Quebec) or Green (3%) or for any other party (1%). The Liberal vote is strong among Boomers (55 to 64 - 53%), in Atlantic Canada (53%) and Ontario (50%). The Conservative vote is common to the oldest (35%), males (34%) and Albertans (55%). There is a significant gender gap among Conservative supporters (34% male, 23% female) which does not exist with respect to the other two main opposition parties.





Trudeau favourables up, Harper, Mulcair steady

Justin Trudeau has the approval of close to half of Canadian voters (46%) and this represents a slight increase since last month (43%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is +9, up from +5 last month. Tom Mulcair has the approval of 4-in-10 (40%), stable from last month (38%), and his net is at +10, up from +4. Stephen Harper has the approval of one third (33%), and his net is a very negative -25.





Trudeau has slight edge as best PM

Justin Trudeau is seen to be the best Prime Minister by 3-in-10 (30%), up from just more than a quarter last month (27%). Stephen Harper trails with just more than a quarter (27%), stable from last month (28%). One eighth see Tm Mulcair as the best Prime Minister (16%) and this hasn't changed since mid-June.





Just one half expect Harper to run in election as scheduled

When presented with a number of scenaria for the federal election scheduled for October 19, 2015, just one half of voters believe it will take place as scheduled with Stephen Harper at the head of the Conservative Party (51%), whereas one seventh believe Stephen Harper will resign before the scheduled election (14%). One tenth believe either that Harper will call and lead an earlier election (9%), that he will resign and an earlier election will take place (7%) or that something else will occur (8%). One tenth have no opinion on the issue (11%). Thus, fully one fifth in total (21%) believe the Prime Minister will resign before the next election. New Democrats (24%) and Liberals (17%) are more likely to predict a scheduled election without Stephen Harper than are Conservative voters (5%).

“It's interesting to note that both Justin Trudeau and the Prime Minister poll at about the same level as their parties, which is usually a good thing, if you're in the lead, or close. Tom Mulcair significantly outperforms his party, though, by a factor of two, and that's a worrisome sign. He makes it easy to park a vote yet not commit to supporting the party in the general election," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.