Want to know if there will be a recession over the next 12 months?

According to Morgan Stanley, there is a 25% chance that a recession will occur over the coming year. If that sounds too high for comfort, particularly with S&P 500 index SPX, -0.84% , the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.46% and Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -1.26% trading near record levels, investors can take some comfort from the fact that the forecast actually represents improved odds from a previous prediction.

“A stronger global backdrop and the delayed promise of tax reform have lowered this assessment from 30% previously,” Ellen Zentner, a Morgan Stanley economist wrote in a note to clients. In July 2016, it had forecast a 40% chance of a recession.

The investment bank’s methodology incorporates “a blend of conditional and unconditional methods,” and indicates “a very low risk of recession beginning over the next six months.”

While it sees a recession as a low outcome, Morgan Stanley did note some reasons to be cautious about the economy. “While difficult to measure in real time, an unemployment rate near its natural, longer-run rate suggests the economy is in the late phase of its business expansion, which naturally lends upward pressure to recession probabilities.”

However, it added, “an upswing in investment on the back of stronger global growth and prospects for incremental regulatory ease have strengthened private domestic demand. Combined with promised, but delayed, tax reform, this has lessened the immediate risk of a boom-bust cycle and lends downward pressure to recession probabilities.”

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While Wall Street continues to trade near record levels, the market’s upward momentum has shown signs of stalling of late. President Donald Trump’s difficulty in passing legislation has been cited as a primary contributor to that, and a tax reform bill—which investors consider necessary to justify the market’s current level—is seen as less likely following Trump’s surprise decision to fire Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey.

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That prospect doesn’t increase the odds of a recession, however. “One could argue that late in the cycle, the promise of tax reform is actually better than the delivery, lest the latter deliver disappointment,” the investment bank wrote.