🇵🇹 Lisbon 2018

We’ve now made it to the most recent contest! It’s now time to look back at the odds ahead of the 2018 contest in Lisbon. These odds were recorded from Skybet on April 16th, 26 days before the final on May 12th.

Rank Odds Country Entry Eurovision

Placing 1 7/4 🇮🇱 Israel Netta – TOY 1st 2 11/2 🇧🇬 Bulgaria EQUINOX – Bones 14th 3 13/2 🇨🇿 Czech Republic Mikolas Josef – Lie To Me 6th 4 8/1 🇦🇺 Australia Jessica Mauboy – We Got Love 20th 5 9/1 🇪🇪 Estonia Elina Nechayeva – La Forza 8th 6 16/1 🇸🇪 Sweden Benjamin Ingrosso – Dance You Off 7th 7 20/1 🇫🇷 France Madame Monsieur – Mercy 13th 8 20/1 🇳🇴 Norway Alexander Rybak – That’s How You Write A Song 15th 9 25/1 🇧🇪 Belgium Sennek – A Matter Of Time SF (12th) 10 25/1 🇪🇸 Spain Amaia & Alfred – Tu Canción 23rd 11 28/1 🇬🇷 Greece Yianna Terzi – Oniro Mou SF (14th) 12 33/1 🇮🇹 Italy Ermal Meta & Fabrizio Moro – Non Mi Avete Fatto Niente 5th 13 40/1 🇳🇱 The Netherlands Waylon – Outlaw In ‘Em 18th 14 50/1 🇫🇮 Finland Saara Aalto – Monsters 25th 15 66/1 🇦🇹 Austria Cesár Sampson – Nobody But You 3rd

Analysis

The winning entry was placed 1st in the odds.

in the odds. 20% of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds.

of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds. 60% of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 15 of the odds.

After Stockholm and Kyiv were two of the most predictable contests in memory in terms of similarities to the pre-contest betting odds, Lisbon was arguably one of the most unpredictable. Whilst Israel was correctly predicted as the winner, the rest of the eventual top five were much further down the odds.

Most notably we must point out Cyprus and Germany, neither of which were inside the top 15 of the betting odds less than a month before the Eurovision 2018 grand final. This is even more extraordinary when you consider that on the day of the final, Eleni Foureira was even favourite to take the crown! Both of these acts had arguably two of the strongest stage shows in Lisbon, with Eleni’s outrageous energy and Michael’s emotional LED screen.

Austria‘s Cesár Sampson was almost a third name to add to the list of top 5 shockers, only 15th in the odds a month before his eventual top three finish. No one expected Austria’s jury victory in Lisbon, and this largely was the cause of Austria’s podium placing.

Belgium and Greece, both in and around the top 10 of the odds, both failed to make it out of the so-called “bloodbath” that was the first semi-final in 2018. Although lacklustre stage presentations from both meant that it was perhaps the unfancied ZiBBZ from Switzerland that became the most surprising non-qualifiers.

Key findings

The mathematical stuff

It’s nice just to reminisce and look back at the past, but it’s also nice to try and make a couple of conclusions here and there! I’m not going to pretend to be any mathematical genius but I’ve plotted the percentages calculated below each chart in the paragraphs above into a graph.

The orange line shows what percentage of the eventual top 5 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds that year. The grey line shows what percentage of the eventual top 15 at Eurovision placed inside the top 5 of the odds that year. The blue and green lines show the overall trends over the past 11 years regarding how accurate the top 5 and 15 of the odds have been in predicting the top 5 and top 15 finishers respectively in any order.

Odds have become increasingly more accurate indicators

Overall, this tells us that over the past twelve years, odds-to-win have become increasingly reliable at predicting which countries will finish both inside the top 5 and particularly those inside the top 15. This is shown by both the blue and green trend lines trending upwards over the decade. However, after a more unpredictable 2018, the top 5 trend in particular has become less significant.

Taking the figures at face value, we can discover the following:

9 times out of 12 , at least three of the top 5 in the odds a month prior the contest has finished in the top 5 at Eurovision.

, at least of the top 5 in the odds a month prior the contest has finished in the top 5 at Eurovision. Excluding 2010 where the dataset was smaller, on all 11 occasions more than half of the top 15 in the odds have gone on to finish in the top 15 at the contest.

of the top 15 in the odds have gone on to finish in the top 15 at the contest. On only two occasions have the top 5 odds matched more than three entries in the eventual Eurovision top 5, in 2013 and 2017.

occasions have the top 5 odds matched in the eventual Eurovision top 5, in 2013 and 2017. However, only twice has the top 15 in the odds matched more than ten of the eventual top 15 finishers at Eurovision. Noticeably, this was in two of the most recent contests, in 2016 and 2017.

Other observations

The most notable pattern when it came to discovering which type of entries tended to underperform at Eurovision were those countries who were being represented by returning artists. Perhaps this is because Eurovision fans are already familiar with these artists and therefore pay their entries more attention then they would do otherwise. Returning artists often result in more fanfare on various media websites. Particularly the likes of Charlotte Perrelli, Niamh Kavanagh or Ira Losco who were previous winners and runner-ups returning for their nations.

Talking about media coverage, well-known artists are also susceptible to being overhyped in the odds. A well-known artist being selected for Eurovision immediately results in more media coverage, whether it be Blue, Engelbert Humperdinck or Cascada. This seems to immediately translate into more betting support than they should probably be getting, particularly when these acts are from Western European countries. As the bookmakers we are analysing here are largely based in Western Europe, these acts are likely to have more effect on the odds than a major star from an Eastern European country for example due to a lack of name recognition amongst the users of these betting agencies.

Let’s revisit next month

I look forward to revisiting these conclusions next month when we can compare the odds from a month prior to the 2019 contest with what we have discovered here. Maybe Duncan Laurence should be confident in victory after Netta turned odds domination to Eurovision victory? Furthermore, the data suggests that at least three of the current top 5 in the odds The Netherlands, Russia, Switzerland, Sweden and Italy – will be top 5 in the grand final. Who will they be?

Do let us know in the comments section below or via our social media pages if you have any thoughts about all of these statistics! Were you surprised to see DJ Bobo topping the odds in 2007? Perhaps you’d forgotten Dustin The Turkey was deemed a potential winner in 2008? Make sure you visit us @ESCXTRA!