It’s gameday, y’all. Let’s breakdown this game and set our predictions in internet stone.

Ty Spalding:

1. Which matchup do you think most favors Louisville?

I’m not going to make this question more complicated than it needs to be. Jordan Nwora should give Kentucky major problems. Does Kentucky put a true big on him? Nate Sestina and EJ Montgomery? Nwora would be chomping at the bit with those options. The likely candidate to guard Nwora is Khalil Whitney, but Whitney has been struggling, and has seen his minutes reduced. I’m not sure Kentucky has anyone that they feel confident to guard Nwora.

2. Which matchup gives you the most concern for Louisville?

I am a tad concerned with Louisville keeping Ashton Hagans out of the paint. I think Hagans could give Louisville major problems, depending on which version of Louisville’s guards shows up. I also think Hagans could have some success turning Louisville’s guards over. If the Michigan version of Darius Perry shows up, I am not too worried. We’ve seen Darius Perry lock in on defense. Hopefully, we see that Darius Perry against Ashton Hagans.

3. Is there a role player for Louisville that you think has to have a good game in order for Louisville to win?

I would love to see Malik Williams give Louisville a big spark off of the bench. Louisville has the advantage in the front court, and if Williams can assert himself, that advantage could be even bigger. I don’t think Dwayne Sutton is technically a role player, but Louisville is going to need him to have a game where he has double-digit rebounds and is all over the floor.

Prediction:

I really don’t have a strong feeling either way on this game. I think Louisville has the better team, has more depth, and is more experienced. But, I’ve seen this movie many of times: the Rupp Arena crowd has an impact, an unlikely candidate breaks out, and Kentucky plays well. Jordan Nwora does just enough in this one, and Chris Mack brings some Xavier-Cincinnati flashbacks in preparing his team for this environment. After last year, Mack has a taste of what this game means, and he goes into Rupp and gets his first win in the rivalry.

Louisville 67 – Kentucky 64





Conor Shea

1. Which matchup do you think most favors Louisville?

Louisville’s most obvious advantage is going to be its frontcourt. It’s going to be glaring seeing Kentucky’s E.J. Montgomery and Nick Richards trying to keep up with Enoch and Nwora. Someone is going to have to cover Nwora, and I don’t think Kentucky has any good options for doing so. And if Kentucky doesn’t have someone to lock-in on Nwora, then that means they won’t be able to double Enoch like they need to. Louisville’s frontcourt needs to exploit this all day. And if Kentucky does decide to double Enoch in the post, then Nwora and Sutton will feast.

2. Which matchup gives you the most concern for Louisville?

Kentucky’s backcourt. While Louisville has seen flashes from Perry and McMahon has impressed as a defender, Louisville doesn’t have a guard like Ashton Hagans. Hagans ability to be a floor general and take over a game is something the Cards severely lack. Louisville desperately needs a leader in the backcourt who can slow things down and recollect the offense when things get hairy, but we still haven’t seen anyone step into that role yet. And when Hagans gets hot, he’s one of the best players in the country.

3. Is there a role player for Louisville that you think has to have a good game in order for Louisville to win?

Nwora is Louisville’s safety net. We saw all last season how Mack would have to leave him on the floor and let him take over a game if needed. Luckily, this team has usually been good enough this season to where they don’t lean on him as heavily. However, when things got ugly in the Texas Tech game Nwora fell flat and the game was over. He’s the kind of player that gets you back into a game when all else is failing, and if he’s not there when that time comes then Louisville’s in trouble.

Prediction

Everything we have seen this season and virtually every analytic points to Louisville being the better team. Change the name on the front of Kentucky’s jersey and I think Louisville wins this game. But hardly anything in this rivalry has gone Louisville’s way since Calipari showed up in Lexington, so I have to throw out most rationalities. Until Mack changes the tides in this rivalry, I’m going to be convinced that Louisville can’t win this game. Call me a pessimist, but Kentucky has one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country, which means I fully expect Juzang or Sestina (went 5/8 against OSU) to go off. Couple that with the game being in Rupp, where Louisville has out fouled Kentucky in every game since Cal has been head coach, and I just can’t believe it until I see it. I’m a wounded bird, y’all.

Kentucky 67 – Louisville 62





Mark Ennis

1. Which matchup do you think most favors Louisville?

You would expect the answer to be Jordan Nwora here, and I suspect he'll play well and be big for Louisville, but, this is the first time in Calipari's time at Kentucky that Louisville has a distinct advantage at center and I expect Louisville to go to Stephen Enoch and Malik Williams early and often. Nick Richards has more fouls (12) than rebounds (8) in his last three games. A stretch that includes a zero rebound game against Ohio State. Kentucky's best offense is either attacking the basket or offensive rebounds and putbacks. Louisville should be able to handle Richards and Montgomery.

2. Which matchup gives you the most concern for Louisville?

It's no secret that Darius Perry and the point guards overall didn't play well against Texas Tech. They can be loose with the ball and allow for too many empty possessions or even worse, easy transition baskets for the other team. Facing Ashton Hagans is the last thing you want to see here. Hopefully, Louisville will get more of the point guard play it got against Michigan than it did against Texas Tech or else the poor shooting Wildcats will have an easy time making up the production with turnovers.

3. Is there a role player for Louisville that you think has to have a good game in order for Louisville to win?

This is a bad answer to the question because he is in no way a "role" player for Louisville, but, I'm going to say, Dwayne Sutton. Most analysis of this game has focused on Nwora, the point guard question, and the center advantage being Louisville's for once. But Sutton is such a mood-setter for this team and last year he was passive and swallowed up against Kentucky. Going into as tough a road environment as there is, they need Sutton to be Sutton. Scrape and fight for rebounds and easy baskets while playing dogged defense.

Prediction:

Whoever wins this game is going to do so by reversing some unpleasant trends. Kentucky hasn't shot well at all from three and they'll have to if they want to win. And, I think they'll shoot better than they have all year. Louisville will have to be sound with the ball and embrace a rough and tumble game. And I think they will. In the end, Louisville will play just loose enough and the ability to have multiple guys hit threes at any time will allow them to steal this game late.

Louisville 68 – Kentucky 67