More rain may be on the horizon for Texas

Weather forecasters raised their Atlantic storm estimate Thursday, but with a caveat that could benefit drought-parched Texas and the Southwest.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it expects 12 to 17 named storms this year, compared to a range of nine to 15 predicted in late May.

“We are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic,” said Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster.

The caveat is the development of a weak-to-moderate El Niño weather pattern, which the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said in its monthly report is almost certain to occur this month or next.

El Niño tends to reduce Atlantic storm activity, but it also is associated with increased rainfall in Texas.

In an interview posted Thursday on the online edition of Southwest Farm Press magazine, NOAA's Dr. Klaus Wolter said Texas may be the biggest beneficiary of El Niño.

“Since the late '90s, Texas has been the only place in the U.S. that received significant impact from El Niño events,” Wolter told the magazine.

His forecasts calls for greater rainfall in Texas and the possibility of increased precipitation in New Mexico, Colorado and the Midwest.

The prospect of El Niño-fueled rainfall led the San Antonio Water System to hold off on Stage 3 water restrictions, which limit lawn watering to once every other week.

The restrictions can be triggered when the Edwards Aquifer drops below 640 feet. The J-17 monitoring level fell below that level Wednesday and Thursday.

“You can expect water levels to extend upwards because demand is going to drop and you are going to get some rain, especially with El Niño predicted,” Geary Schindel, chief technical officer at the Edwards Aquifer Authority, said Wednesday.

Forecasters changed the seasonal outlook for the Atlantic storm season because of low wind shear and warmer sea surface temperatures in much of the Atlantic basin the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Sea surface temperatures in some areas are a degree or two above average, an ideal breeding ground for hurricanes.

Six storms already have formed this season, which got off to an early start with four named storms in June, a first since the National Hurricane Center began keeping records in 1851.

However, with the bulk of Atlantic activity likely to occur during the next six to eight weeks, El Niño may come too late to have that much of an effect.

“El Niño is a competing factor, because it strengthens the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which suppresses storm development,” Bell said. “However, we don't expect El Niño's influence until later in the season.”

Tropical Storm Ernesto made landfall Thursday near the port city of Coatzacoalcos on the East Coast of Mexico.

It reached hurricane strength shortly before landfall Tuesday night near the cruise ship port of Mahahual in Yucatan, but it weakened as it crossed the peninsula.

The Houston Chronicle, Associated Press and Tampa Bay Times contributed to this report, which includes material from the Express-News archives.