Historically, two-thirds to three-fourths of children born into the church would remain active into adulthood. In 1981, that wasn’t a problem, because the average LDS woman would have 3.3 children (1.8 was the national average at the time). By the 2016 The Next Mormons survey, 57% of LDS families had fewer than three children— too few to maintain the church’s membership per historical data, Martinich notes.

Other nuances don’t surface in official reports, says Patrick Mason, the Arrington Chair of Mormon History and Culture at Utah State University. Unlike other religions, the LDS Church retains every baptized member on its roles until death, unless the member is excommunicated or removes their records via legal proceeding. Only a fraction of members reported by the LDS Church, he says, have set foot in a church recently or consider themselves “Mormon.”

Although it’s difficult to obtain good data on this front, scholars believe the number of LDS members who no longer attend is growing. Among those who leave, a growing number affiliate with an “ex-Mormon” community that regards the church not only as false, but as actively harmful to society, making the LDS Church an organization both uniquely loved, and hated, by those brought up in it. And though it may seem the attrition is driven by controversy, other factors—such as the all-encompassing nature of the church’s teachings—likely play a role in driving both defections and devotion.

All-in or exiting: why there aren’t many mediocre Mormons

The LDS Church remains, among Christian sects, uniquely effective at retaining its young members. “When their children grow up, they’re among the highest of all religious groups of youth staying in the church,” says Christian Smith, a professor of sociology at the University of Notre Dame. And this isn’t the only front where the LDS Church is bucking U.S. and international trends toward secularization. The LDS youth who stay in the church, Smith says, are far more devoted to the faith than young members of other traditions.

There is, however, a flip side to this trend: a sizeable and growing portion of young Mormons are leaving the mainline church. According to the General Social Survey, the LDS Church retained 62.5% of youth born from 1965-1980. Since 1981, retention has fallen to 46 percent.

LDS youth still leave the church later in life than other young believers — in their mid-20s, rather than their late teens. And when they leave, they are less inclined to go quietly. “In a lot of other traditions, the children tend to move toward a middle range of religiousness,” Smith says. “They move away from the intensity… They don’t become total atheists, totally disconnected from the church. If the categories are extremely religious, very religious and none, they move toward the middle category. They’re somewhat religious; they somewhat believe. That’s a Catholic pattern in particular.”

By contrast, Smith says LDS youth tend to go to the extremes. “They either stay involved, they’re totally committed, or they just go to the far side and completely bail,” he said. “There are not a lot of somewhat Mormon people.”

Many have sought to attribute the church’s attrition to controversial issues such as the church’s stances on women’s rights, same-sex attraction, how it handles trickier aspects of its own history, and even how it manages its finances. But Smith and other scholars believe the lack of middle ground in the LDS Church is directly tied to its teachings: a volunteer-intensive organization with an almost entirely lay clergy — local religious leaders are unpaid — means the LDS faith is more than a religion. It’s a demanding, almost all-encompassing, way of life.

Mormonism, Smith says, “has mechanisms that prevent you from being a mediocre Mormon.” Members meet annually with church leaders to determine if they have maintained their faith and continued in religious behaviors, such as wearing special clothing and giving 10 percent of their income to the church. They spend more time in church than other faiths, meet together more often during the week, and are expected to devote more of their personal time to religious study than other faiths. All teens are expected to attend LDS seminary; each adult member has a volunteer position within the church they are expected to perform.

On top of this, Smith says, Mormonism remains an unusual faith, with unique teachings not found in other Christian sects—for example, the belief that all other churches abandoned the true teachings of Christ in a “great apostasy.” These beliefs have, in some cases, led more mainstream Christian churches to actively shun Mormonism—which can isolate adherents and make it more difficult for youth to find friends outside the LDS faith community. That, in turn, raises the stakes for those who plan to leave—leaving may mean walking away from your entire social circle.

Then there’s the church’s history of persecution, which Smith said has led to a “heel-digging” mindset in which individuals are either with the church, or against it. The LDS Church teaches that its president is the literal mouthpiece of God, which doesn’t leave a lot of room for negotiation if you happen to disagree with church teachings.

“To me, the history, identity, structure and doctrine of the LDS Church lends itself to a love it or leave it approach,” Smith says. “Mormonism has a set of things that raise the bar and you either jump over it, or you say forget it.” Those who do leave often feel greater anger and resentment toward the church than adherents who leave other faiths. Because Mormonism had a greater effect on their lives, they’re more likely to feel as though something has been taken from them.

Generational faith slide

These dynamics have existed not only in Mormonism, but across many religions for decades says Jana Riess, a journalist and academic who studies and writes about the LDS Church (of which she is a member). Her book The Next Mormons examines how Millennials are changing the LDS church.

Riess conducted The Next Mormons Survey in 2016 and notes that youth defections are on the rise, but what’s really changed is that they aren’t coming back. Historically, Riess says, American youth left the LDS church of their childhood between 17-23, only to return later in life when they married and began to have children of their own. But across the board, as the Millennial generation has entered their 30s and 40s, people are returning to church at lower rates than they used to.

Riess believes that this is a cultural phenomenon, not a trend unique to the LDS Church. Not having a religion, she says, is by far America’s fastest growing religion. What has changed for Mormonism, she says, is that leaving has become easier, and those who defect have become more vocal. Online communities and even conventions for individuals who identify as ex-Mormon have sprung up and gained followings through social media such as Facebook and Reddit, giving those who leave an instant connection—and platform—that simply didn’t exist in the past.

“For people who have left recently, there is a built-in community waiting to receive them, and that’s just not the case for people who left decades ago,” Riess says. She says many who leave never affiliate with the ex-Mormon community, and never take the steps necessary to remove their names from church rolls. Most, Riess says, just stop showing up and quietly distance themselves from the faith.

This dynamic is especially strong in some areas of Utah where the church is most insular, Martinich says. Those who leave the church elsewhere are much more likely to join another faith; those who leave in Utah are more likely to become atheist and affiliate with ex-Mormon communities. According to a 2019 University of Utah Survey, 61.5% of students who grew up LDS left the church while attending school, with the majority becoming agnostic, atheist, “spiritual but not religious,” or “nothing in particular.”

Mason believes the resignations are significant, because people rarely resign alone. “They take their whole family with them,” he says, “and a lot of people resigning are in their child-bearing years, and they have children who are then never counted on the rolls of the church.” He said the actual exit strategy, people severing ties and taking their names off the records of the church, is a trend “that has become distinctive over the last couple of decades.”