Liberal Support Sags

McNeil very unpopular

Toronto, May 17th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1057 Nova Scotia voters, for those decided and leaning, the Liberals, with over a third (37%) lead but are statistically tied with the Progressive Conservatives (35%) who are just behind. A quarter of respondents (25%) say they support the NDP. Few support the Green Party (4%).

Liberal support has dropped 4 points since the beginning of the campaign (May 3: 41%). The PC share of support has increased by 5 points (May 3: 32%). NDP support is unchanged at (25%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals include those aged 55-64 (40%), 65+ (43%), the least wealthy (45%), with some college/university (42%), and living on the South Shore (43%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Progressive Conservatives include those aged 65+ (39%), the least educated (37%) or with a college/university degree (36%), and living in Cape Breton (42%) or the North End (40%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (29%), 35-44 (32%), 45-54 (32%), females (30%), with a post-graduate degree (32%), and living in Halifax (33%).

Midway through the campaign, Liberal minority possible

The race has narrowed considerably, and if an election were held today, the Liberals would secure a minority government with 22 seats. The PC would remain the official opposition with 17 seats, and the NDP would secure a strong 12 seats.

McNeil again edges Baillie as best premier, but they are virtually tied

Almost 3-in-10 (28%) believe Stephen McNeil would make the best premier, just ahead of Jamie Baillie (26%). 2-in-10 see Gary Burrill (20%) as best premier, with just over a quarter (26%) reporting they don’t know who would make the best premier.

McNeil strong disapproval, Baillie and Burrill better, but still negative

Just over a quarter (28%) approve of Stephen McNeil, but more than 6 in 10 say they disapprove of his job as premier. His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a dismal -32. Just over 1-in-10 (11%) say they do not know about his performance.

Jamie Baillie’s approval is better than a third (34%), but his disapproval exceeds it at (37%), for a net favourable score of -3. Almost a third (29%) say they do not know about his performance.

Gary Burrill sees approval from a third (33%), but disapproval of more than a third (36%), for a net favourable score of -3. A third (32%) say the do not know about his performance.

"The premier is very unpopular right now, and that could be why we are seeing such a dip in the Liberal numbers, right now,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.