James Alan Fox

Texas on Monday becomes the eighth state in the U.S. to permit properly licensed gun owners to carry concealed weapons on college campuses, and the timing could not be worse.

When he chose Aug. 1 for his concealed carry bill to take effect at all public colleges and universities across Texas, state Rep. Allen Fletcher wasn't aware of the ironic historical significance of that date.

Aug. 1, 2016 marks the 50th anniversary of the infamous tower shooting at the state's flagship campus in Austin. Fourteen people (not counting the gunman) were killed during the attack, and more than 30 others sustained non-fatal gunshot wounds. And on this milestone occasion, when the university community gathers in the shadow of the tower to witness the unveiling of a long overdue memorial to the victims, some in attendance could legally be packing heat.

While the unfortunate coincidence may have been overlooked — or disregarded — by Texas officials, the possible impact of the law was not lost on the state's college campuses where students and faculty engaged in heated debate well in advance of the start date.

Supported by Students for Concealed Carry on Campus, a national grassroots organization born in response to the 2007 Virginia Tech massacre, proponents insist that every second counts — that it's not the campus police but those at the scene when a shooting erupts who are, by virtue of proximity, in the best position to stop an armed assailant.

Meanwhile, opponents warn of the potentially dire consequences of allowing guns in an environment where depression and drinking are commonplace. Loaded guns and loaded students are a dangerous mix.

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And even before implementation, the law had an impact. Concerned that guns in the classroom would stifle free speech and open discourse on controversial issues, some key faculty members resigned. Most notably, the longtime dean of the School of Architecture in Austin opted to accept an academic position elsewhere, at a school that remains a "gun-free zone." Other faculty plan to bar firearms from their offices, especially when confronting an angry student challenging a grade, and face the prospect of being singled out for non-compliance.

The coincidence of the campus carry law and the day of solemn remembrance is more than just symbolic. In the 96-minute massacre a half century ago, we see one of the downsides of having folks armed and ready to intervene in the event of a strategically-positioned sniper or an active shooter stalking the campus.

As soon as the news of a gunman perched in the 300-foot tower was broadcast over KTBC radio, countless well-meaning Texans rushed to campus to help mount a counterattack from street level. The volunteer ground force did more harm than good, however, as their shots at the tower, ricocheting off the concrete, had no effect on the gunman who was well-protected behind the barrier. Not so for the first responders who had to duck and dodge friendly fire as they attempted to step out onto the observation deck to overtake the shooter.

Looking ahead, suppose there were an active shooter terrorizing campus — perhaps even someone brandishing a firearm now permitted on campus by Texas law. Who would we want to respond? Should it be a 21-year-old gun owner whose only experience has been at a pressure-free shooting range, or a campus cop who is trained to react effectively under stress?

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And when arriving, how will the uniformed officer, amidst the chaos and crossfire, identify the bad guy holding a gun and wearing blue jeans and a backpack from the good guys also holding guns and wearing blue jeans and backpacks?

In all likelihood, this scenario will remain strictly hypothetical. According to FBI data, there were a total of 15 active shooter events on college campuses nationwide between 2000 and 2015 (none in Texas) resulting in 70 deaths (nearly half connected to the Virginia Tech mass murder). In light of the nearly 5,000 college campuses and 20 million college students in the U.S., the chance that any will be confronted by an armed assailant is extremely slim.

Given these odds, the impact of the Texas campus carry law will not be measured by body count. But we will be able to measure it in terms of fear — more for some, less for others.

James Alan Fox is the Lipman Professor of Criminology, Law and Public Policy at Northeastern University and a member of the USA TODAY Board of Contributors.

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