Andrea Horwath’s NDP made the news this week. For once.

You remember Ontario’s New Democrats? Eighteen months ago, Horwath led them to their best showing in decades.

They didn’t quite vault to victory, but give her credit for winning the consolation prize of Official Opposition status that comes with finishing second. Horwath took her party from a flimsy 10 seats in the legislature, 10 years ago, to an impressive tally of 40 today.

Good news for New Democrats. Not good enough news, however, for progressives across the province who hoped the NDP could take power once the governing Liberals fell out of favour (they hung on to a mere seven seats).

The real news? Voters fled the Liberals, overflew the New Democrats, and flocked to Doug Ford’s Tories – who outflanked her as the trustworthy alternative by winning a stellar 76 seats.

The news hasn’t stopped since: Crowned as premier for the next four years, Ford targeted the Liberal legacy he so loathed:

The minimum wage frozen for 2-1/2 years and a scheduled increase rescinded; class sizes increased and teaching jobs cut, to be replaced by online learning; a minimum income pilot program cancelled despite an explicit campaign promise to keep it; Pharmacare for young adults and seniors cancelled; and carbon pricing rescinded.

It is a perfect storm for New Democrats, optimal for Horwath to take the province by storm. So why isn’t she leading the counterattack, or at least leading in the polls?

First, the latest news — the first time Horwath has made the news in a long time. One of the rookie parliamentarians they recruited was repudiated for posing with a placard proclaiming, “F-- Doug Ford.”

Upon investigation, Horwath pronounced herself reassured that her Ottawa Centre MPP, Joel Harden, hadn’t seen the vulgarism before being photographed holding it. When he later fessed up that he had, indeed, snuck a peak before posing, Horwath found herself fending off reporters’ questions about whether she had knowingly misled the public to avoid more embarrassment.

Let’s give her benefit of the doubt, notwithstanding her reflexive incredulity that a fellow New Democrat could possibly go astray. Ultimately, she recognized his mistake, and he (and she) made amends.

But if this is how Horwath gets in the news, given all that’s happening in Ontario, the NDP has bigger problems than it realizes. So perhaps does the province.

The role of official opposition has always been thankless, but never easier, thanks to the abundance of material provided daily by Ford’s government. The media are infused with endless column inches, yet a disproportionate amount are taken up by the quotable comments of another party leader, Mike Schreiner, whose Green Party comprises a caucus of precisely one seat — his.

The headless Liberals, now down to a mere five seats, also manage to make the news cycle with the pithy critiques from the talking heads that remain. Many in the NDP caucus also win favourable coverage.

But the opposition leader who gets to ask the most questions makes the least impact, even after nearly 11 years as leader. Or perhaps because of it.

Every day, she rises only to look down at her notes, reading word for word as she implores the premier to take her seriously. He doesn’t.

Ford, to his great discredit, has taken to ignoring most of Horwath’s questions of late, delegating them to his front bench strength. It is not just that Ford is laying low, as his popularity tumbles, but that he feels he can ignore Horwath with impunity.

Previous NDP leaders didn’t just demand attention, they commanded it. They also knew when they no longer attracted interest by voters or reporters, and moved on.

When Horwath won the NDP leadership in early 2009, Tim Hudak had just been elected to helm the PCs, Michael Ignatieff had just taken over the federal Liberals. All three of them had promising futures, but they didn’t last forever.

“It’s going to be a 10-year project at the least,” Horwath told the Toronto Star’s editorial board nearly 11 years ago. Back then, she won this newspaper’s editorial endorsement for the NDP leadership, despite its reservations, because “there is hope she would grow in office.”

Horwath hasn’t grown as much as many had hoped. But she has surely grown the NDP’s support, has she not?

As New Democrats now know, what goes up can also come down. Federally, the party won official opposition status a few elections ago, only to be displaced to fourth place in the last vote.

Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading... Loading...

Could another New Democrat have done better in the last Ontario election, running against the most unpopular Liberal and most unqualified Tory leader in recent memory? Put another way, will the NDP ever again have such an opening to win government — or at least prevent the PCs from wreaking havoc on progressive programs?

Public opinion surveys consistently show the New Democrats well back in third place, trailing the discredited Tories, and well behind the leaderless Liberals who are now leading in the polls. In the Oct. 21 election, federal New Democrats were wiped out in Toronto and won a mere six of 121 Ontario seats. In the aftermath of that vote, two other party leaders — the Greens’ Elizabeth May and the Conservatives’ Andrew Scheer — have resigned to make room for renewal.

By the next provincial election, Horwath will have been leader for more than 13 years, long after other defeated politicians who served at the same time have moved on. Perhaps then, in 2022, it will finally be Horwath’s time to lead — if not time to leave.

Read more about: