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It is not easy to settle on a narrative about Newcastle United’s start to the season.

Rafa Benitez is in charge of a team that could have cemented its place in the top six with a win against Burnley at Turf Moor four weeks ago – but a month later and United’s focus is on trying to steady a listing ship after a run of five games without a win and successive home defeats.

United’s haul of 15 points from 14 games is THREE above the average of where teams who go down sit at this stage of the season. And it’s ABOVE where they were in the two seasons that have ended in relegation on Tyneside. So they’re on course to be safe at the moment if they retain the same number of points-per-game.

But they will need to show more of the character of the Hawthorns to keep them in decent health – and after 14 games it now looks pretty clear that this season is about survival more than reaching for secondary goals like a top ten finish.

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What is also clear is what was looking like a very solid start has dropped off. The shine of Benitez getting three early wins on the board has fallen away: Newcastle’s start is now the fourth best out of the last nine. They are outstripping Steve McClaren’s horrendous start (10 points from 14 was the form that took United to relegation) but they are only a point above where they were in 2008/9 – when they also went down.

Of the last 30 teams relegated, just seven had more than 15 points after 14 games. The average points total of teams who went down at this stage was 11.9 points – let’s round it up to 12 for accuracy – and United have three points more than that at this stage.

Benitez feels that Newcastle need 20 points from 19 games. The next five are Chelsea (a), Leicester (h), Everton (h), Arsenal (a) and West Ham (a) – if Newcastle are going to stay in the division and out of the relegation argument they will need to pick up a minimum of four points from those matches even if two are at teams that will surely be in the top four or five come the end of the season.

(Image: Newcastle United)

Benitez deserves credit for settling on a philosophy and system that he believes will take the players to safety. Despite not getting the players he wanted – which led to him feeling undermined – he has got on with the job at hand and Newcastle are competitive in the Premier League with a team that is largely based around the same core of players that won the Championship.

But the Spaniard is also right to say there is plenty of hard work ahead. What is most notable looking at Newcastle’s seasons in the Premier League is how few points they accrue in the SECOND half of the season.

They have a reputation for ending seasons badly: in 2014/15 they won just three games after December 31. In 2013/14 it was five and in 2008/9 they won just two of their last 22 matches. Finishing strongly – something Benitez is building a squad to do – is going to be paramount, as is a January transfer window to re-stock this side.

Newcastle United’s start vs other Premier League starts:

2015/6:

Points after 14 games: 10

Manager: Steve McClaren

Eventual position: 18th

As bad as it gets. Newcastle had pressed the reset button in the summer, spending big on Georginio Wijnaldum and Aleksandar Mitrovic to refresh the squad but McClaren could not do the business. United didn’t win until October 18 and McClaren was on the brink of dismissal after 14 games. A win over Liverpool and then at Spurs gave him false hope in games 15 and 16 but they won only two more games in his time and even Benitez couldn’t save Newcastle.

2014/5:

Points after 14 games: 20

Manager: Alan Pardew (resigned)

Eventual position: 15th

A season that became a desperate battle to stay up started quite well. Pardew oversaw a mixed start to the season that saw increasing calls for him to be sacked but then won six in a row to put them in contention for the top four. He walked out, John Carver took over and Newcastle won just two games after the turn of the year. They stayed up on the final day.

2013/14:

Points after 14 games: 23

Manager: Alan Pardew

Eventual position: 10th

Another rollercoaster season. After opening the campaign with a 4-0 defeat at Manchester City to heap pressure on Pardew, he steadied the ship and Newcastle were riding high at Christmas before they slumped badly after Yohan Cabaye was sold.

2012/13:

Points after 14 games: 13

Manager: Alan Pardew

Eventual position: 16th

United were finding life in the Europa League difficult. Here is a stat for you: Newcastle had played 23 times by November 29 this season. This year, they’ve played 15 times. That might explain why they struggled so much. The season ended in a struggle to stay up.

2011/12:

Points after 14 games: 26

Manager: Alan Pardew

Eventual position: 5th

A new team and an incredible start. United picked up momentum after beating Sunderland and never really slowed down. They didn’t lose in the league until November 19 and save for a blip over Christmas they were excellent.

2010/11:

Points after 14 games: 19

Manager: Chris Hughton (Sacked)

Eventual position: 12th

Interesting, this. The last time United were promoted Chris Hughton had United performing better than they are this time – and quite considerably so. They’d beaten Arsenal, Everton, Aston Villa and Sunderland but Hughton was under real pressure. He eventually was dismissed at Christmas – to be replaced by Alan Pardew. No chance of something similar happening this time.

2008/9:

Points after 14 games: 14

Manager: Kevin Keegan (Resigned)

Eventual position: 18th

The sort of start that has some United fans feeling deja vu. Popular manager left feeling undermined? Check. Mike Ashley willing to sell? Check. Run of defeats? Check. The big difference is Rafa Benitez is sticking it out – and this group of players are showing much more character. It surely won’t take much to improve on how United did after the first half of the season. After December 21st, Newcastle won just TWO games.

2007/8:

Points after 14 games: 18

Manager: Sam Allardyce (Sacked)

Eventual position: 12th

Sam Allardyce got off to a flier with a 3-1 win at Bolton and they lost only one of their first seven games (a defeat to Derby, who would finish bottom of the table). But momentum had disappeared by early November and Allardyce did not last the season. This was a good team and a brief flirtation with relegation under Kevin Keegan did not materialise into anything too taxing.