PRINCETON, NJ -- The Gallup Economic Confidence Index held at -16 last week, the highest the index has reached in the four-plus years of Gallup Daily tracking in the United States. This is slightly improved over the -18 readings in the first half of May, and up significantly from -27 at the start of the year.

Longer term, the index has fully recovered from the near-record-low -54 it fell to last summer as a political battle raged in the U.S. over raising the debt ceiling. The index is now marginally higher than its level at the start of 2011, which in turn was slightly improved over the high points reached in 2009 and 2010, and slightly better than where it stood at the beginning of January 2008.

The Gallup Economic Confidence Index is an average of two components of consumers' psychology: Americans' ratings of current economic conditions and their perceptions of whether the economy is getting better or getting worse. The index has a theoretical maximum of +100, obtained if all Americans say the economy is excellent or good and improving. The index could go as low as -100 if all Americans perceive the economy as poor and getting worse.

Americans' perceptions of current economic conditions were up slightly last week, with 17% describing conditions as "excellent" or "good" and 37% as "poor," for a net economic conditions rating of -20, the best since September 2008. At the same time, the -12 economic outlook score (reflecting 42% of Americans saying the economy is improving and 54% saying it is worsening) was down slightly, resulting in stability in the overall Economic Confidence Index for the week.

Bottom Line

Americans' economic confidence has been improving by baby steps for much of 2012 after a more rapid rise out of near-economic despair last summer, and that is continuing in May. At -16 for the week ending May 27, the index once again came in higher than the -20 average for all of April, indicating overall confidence will be up slightly this month. To be sure, Gallup Daily tracking reveals that the rise in confidence has been fairly bumpy on a weekly basis, but the overall trend is positive and -- assuming the government's upcoming unemployment report for May is consistent with the slight decline in unemployment Gallup found in mid-May -- it seems likely to continue on this track for at least another month.

Gallup.com reports results from these indexes in daily, weekly, and monthly averages and in Gallup.com stories. Complete trend data are always available to view and export in the following charts:

Daily: Employment, Economic Confidence, Job Creation, Consumer Spending

Weekly: Employment, Economic Confidence, Job Creation, Consumer Spending

Read more about Gallup's economic measures.

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