With eight games remaining in the regular season, it is Toronto FC and Major League Soccer’s two New York clubs who lead the Eastern Conference. But who will be in the No. 1 spot come year’s end on Oct. 23? We took a look at each side’s run-in (with points totals in parentheses) so you can judge for yourself.

Toronto FC (43)

Home games: Montreal (on Saturday), New York Red Bulls, Philadelphia, Orlando City, D.C. United, Chicago

Away games: Chicago, Montreal

Key game(s): The Reds must take advantage of its home field during visits from fellow Eastern Conference challengers Red Bulls, Impact and Union.

After starting the season with an eight-game road trip, the Reds will spend much of the final stretch fending off opponents at BMO Field. The stadium has become something of a fortress for Toronto as of late; in its last homestand, the Reds took a perfect 12 points from four games. On paper, the team’s final eight games are tougher than New York City’s, and easier than the Red Bulls. But with the best striker in the league in Sebastian Giovinco, the best defensive record of the three squads, and what should soon be a fully healthy team, Toronto can be considered the frontrunner to win the Eastern Conference.

New York City FC (41)

Home games: D.C. United, FC Dallas, Chicago, Columbus

Away games: Orlando City, New England, Houston, D.C. United

Key game(s): FC Dallas should be New York City’s toughest test, but maximum or dropped points from both D.C. games will impact the Eastern Conference most.

New York City is sitting pretty heading into its last run of matches, with only one of its final eight opponents currently sitting in the top five of either conference. Travel-wise, its schedule is more gruelling than Toronto FC’s, as it will play visitor for half of those games. And there are cracks in coach Patrick Vieira’s team: New York is currently tied with Vancouver for the second-worst defensive record in the league, having conceded 43 goals this season. If goals dry up from the likes of striker David Villa and midfielder Frank Lampard, NYCFC could see its stock drop quickly.

New York Red Bulls (37)

Home games: New England, D.C. United, Montreal, Philadelphia, Columbus

Away games: Vancouver, Toronto, Philadelphia

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Key game(s): Three points against the Impact and Union respectively at home could offset possible lost points in Toronto and Philadelphia.

The Red Bulls enter this final stretch as the outlier of the three teams. Last year’s Supporters’ Shield winners already have more than a game to make up on both its local rival and Toronto. Plus, half of coach Jesse Marsch’s side’s final eight matches are to be played against teams which currently sit in the Eastern Conference’s top five. One silver lining for the Red Bulls is that the team is hosting five of its last games at Red Bull Arena, where it has only lost twice this season. Still, striker Bradley Wright-Phillips and his squad have an uphill climb ahead to reclaim the division title.