2014 is expected to become the first year in modern history where no artist has sold more than 1m albums in the US. Although the past 12 months have seen massive sales for Disney’s Frozen soundtrack, no other record has earned the equivalent of a platinum sales certificate from sales this year.

The website Death and Taxes were the first to make this clear assertion, based on a similar article from Forbes. In the USA, 2014’s bestselling albums so far are Frozen, Beyoncé’s self-titled LP and Lorde’s Pure Heroine. All three were released in 2013, and although all have received platinum sales certificates, most of these sales came from last year. Only Frozen has moved more than 1 million units since 1 January 2014: the others have sold “only” about 750,000 copies, well short of the target.

Among albums released this year, the bestsellers are Outsiders, by country singer Eric Church, and Ghost Stories, by Coldplay. Both of these are even further from the goal than Beyoncé and Lorde.

And yet despite Death and Taxes’ anti-platinum forecast, there are a few scenarios where the USA might see some million-sellers after all. Taylor Swift and the Foo Fighters are both due to release records before the end of December; although the Foos haven’t had a platinum LP since 2005’s In Your Honor, Taylor Swift’s 2012 full-length, Red, sold 1.21m copies in only its first week. Other possibilities include surprise albums by Adele, Rihanna or Lady Gaga, who are reportedly working toward 2015 releases, or a rumoured new edition of Beyoncé’s latest, which could elevate it into multi-platinum certifications.

The RIAA began certifying American platinum records in 1976; the Eagles’ Greatest Hits 1971 - 1975 was the first to be certified. Since then, 344 more albums have received the designation. Whereas the United States awards platinum certificates for album sales over 1m copies, the UK’s platinum sales certificate is awarded for album sales of just 300,000.