Jennifer Jacobs

jejacobs@dmreg.com

DONALD TRUMP

Horse race rank: No. 1

Support: 28 percent, up from 22 percent

Mainstream Republicans are helping carry the New York businessman into the lead.

Thirty-eight percent of likely GOP caucusgoers identify themselves as primarily mainstream, rather than tea party or evangelical conservative, and Trump does better than any other candidate with 34 percent of their support. Rubio is next at 21 percent. Cruz gets only 10 percent of these voters.

Trump also wins with voters who think the system is rigged against all but the very rich and powerful, with 39 percent of their support, followed by Cruz at 19 percent.

Men, Catholics, and first-time caucusgoers prefer Trump over others.

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A field-leading 71 percent of Trump’s voters say their minds are made up.

Weaknesses for Trump are his support for eminent domain and his previous support for abortion rights.

TED CRUZ

Horse race rank: No. 2

Support: 23 percent, down from 25 percent

Caucusgoers who describe themselves as evangelical conservatives, rather than tea party or mainstream Republicans, like Cruz best. He gets 33 percent of their vote, followed by Trump at 19 percent.

Cruz, who prides himself in being a thorn in congressional leaders’ sides, also wins with voters who think the system works reasonably well for those who work hard to get ahead, rather than those who think the system is rigged for the rich. He gets 28 percent of these voters; Trump gets 20 percent.

Sixty-one percent of Cruz’s voters say their minds are made up.

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If the GOP presidential race narrows into a two-person battle, 53 percent would prefer to see Cruz win over Trump.

A weaknesses for Cruz is his failure to fully disclose that he borrowed as much as $1 million from Wall Street banks to finance his 2012 U.S. Senate campaign. That action bothers 54 percent of poll respondents, some of whom said in follow-up interviews they find it hard to believe that an Ivy League-educated lawyer who has argued before the U.S. Supreme Court forgot to put this fact on disclosure reports required by law.

MARCO RUBIO

Horse race rank: No. 3

Support: 15 percent, up from 12 percent

The Florida U.S. senator takes second behind Trump among mainstream Republicans.

He ties for second with Cruz with the wealthiest voters, with incomes of $100,000 or more a year.

Rubio’s support is softer than for the two at the top of the polls; just 47 percent say their minds are made up.

More respondents select him as second choice than any other candidate, and his image rating is the second-highest in this poll. Seventy percent feel favorably about Rubio, behind Carson at 72 percent.

BEN CARSON

Horse race rank: No. 4

Support: 10 percent, down from 11 percent

The retired doctor takes third place with evangelical conservatives.

No GOP candidate has a higher favorability rating than Carson, at 72 percent. That’s down only 1 point since the last Iowa Poll earlier this month.

He ranks just 1 point below Cruz and Trump (tied at the top) as the candidate who cares most about people like them.

Carson was the front-runner in October with 28 percent. Since then, he’s hovered in low double digits.

RAND PAUL

Horse race rank: No. 5

Support: 5 percent, no change



With the under-35 crowd, the Kentucky U.S. senator is in fourth place.

Slightly more likely GOP caucusgoers have an unfavorable opinion of him (41 percent) than have a favorable opinion (40 percent).

Sixty-three percent of likely caucusgoers are not enthusiastic about Paul as the nominee.

CHRIS CHRISTIE

Horse race rank: No. 6

Support: 3 percent, no change

Unlike in the last poll three weeks ago, the New Jersey governor is once again upside down on his favorable-to-unfavorable ratio: 40 percent to 44 percent.

Sixty-five percent of likely caucusgoers are not enthusiastic about Christie as the nominee.

JEB BUSH

Horse race rank: No. 7

Support: 2 percent, down from 4 percent

The former Florida governor is among those who bring the greatest depth of knowledge and experience to the job, ranking third after Cruz and Trump.

More are unfavorable (53 percent) toward Bush than favorable (41 percent).

Sixty-nine percent of likely caucusgoers are not enthusiastic about Bush as nominee.