E.J. Manuel played poorly Sunday, completing only 47.7 percent of his passes and throwing two interceptions. While box score summaries can sometimes hide clutch play in critical situations that wasn't the case here. According to data from Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics, Manuel accounted for two of the three most detrimental plays Sunday.


Burke's Win Probability measures a variety of in-game situations like time remaining, score, down, and distance. J.J. Watt's pick six of Manuel at the beginning of the second half was the most costly play of the week as it lowered the Bills' Win Probability 41 percentage points. Just look at the drop in the Bills' in-game WP chart! Manuel's interception at the end of the fourth quarter was the third most costly play of the week as it lowered the Bill's Win Probability 30 percentage points.

If Manuel was the most disastrous quarterback of week 4, then Mike Glennon was the most heroic. Glennon had the top two positive plays of the week in the Buccaneers comeback win over the Steelers. On the game-winning drive, Glennon's 41 yard pass to Louis Murphy raised the Buccaneers' Win Probability 54 percent points. His ensuing touchdown pass to Vincent Jackson increased his team's Win Probability 30 percentage points, but that's just what happens when you score a go-ahead touchdown with 12 seconds remaining.

Here are the most and least helpful plays of the week.

Play Team WPA EPA Qtr Time Down Distance Yd Line Mike Glennon pass to Louis Murphy for 41 yards TB 0.54 3.68 4 0:35 2 10 46 Mike Glennon pass to Vincent Jackson for 5 yard touchdown TB 0.30 2.11 4 0:12 3 5 5 Matt Asiata run for 1 yard touchdown MIN 0.23 4.01 4 10:52 4 1 1 Philip Rivers pass to Eddie Royal for 43 yard touchdown SD 0.22 5.09 2 1:09 3 10 43 EJ Manuel pass to Mike Williams for 80 yard touchdown BUF 0.21 5.96 4 9:21 1 10 80


Play Team WPA EPA Qtr Time Down Distance Yd Line EJ Manuel pass intercepted by HST-J.J. Watt, returned for 80 yard touchdown BUF -0.41 -9.99 3 13:40 3 3 12 Nick Foles incomplete pass intended for Brent Celek PHI -0.39 -3.02 4 2:00 3 1 1 EJ Manuel pass intercepted by HST-Darryl Morris, returned for no gain BUF -0.30 -2.71 4 1:14 1 10 41 Colin Kaepernick pass intercepted by PHI-Malcolm Jenkins, returned for 53 yard touchdown SF -0.26 -7.38 2 12:16 3 3 55 Jay Cutler pass to Martellus Bennett for 8 yards, unnecessary roughness penalty on CHI-Kyle Long for 15 yards CHI -0.22 -5.27 2 0:09 2 9 9

[Advanced Football Analytics]