Jordan Lynch may be Heisman worthy, but not a Heisman winner

Jeffrey Martin | USA Today Sports

Last season, Northern Illinois quarterback Jordan Lynch became the first player in Division I/FBS history to rush for at least 1,500 yards and pass for 3,000 in one season. Just last week, the senior set a single-game rushing record by a quarterback, finishing with 316 in a 38-17 rout of Central Michigan.

And for the second year in a row, he's a Heisman Trophy hopeful.

"I think it's possible (to win it)," Lynch said. "I finished seventh last year. I feel like if I can make it in seventh place, there's no reason why I can't win it."

History suggests otherwise.

In reality, hope might be all Lynch has in regards to actually claiming the award annually given to the best player in college football. While that might or might not be Lynch, it's improbable a candidate from a non-automatic qualifying school such as NIU, a member of the Mid-American Conference, would be honored.

It just doesn't happen.

"He can be a finalist, but I don't think he can win," said Chris Huston, creator and publisher of HeismanPundit.com. "You have to have a few things – the numbers, the name recognition and the schedule … You have to be seen as the most outstanding player.

"When you're from Northern Illinois, you're not going to get the chance to prove that the way the other players get a chance to prove it."

Clearly, Lynch has the numbers.

Already this season, he has thrown for 1,488 yards and ran for 932. Asked what he might have to accomplish to soar highest in the Heisman voting, Lynch suggested it might take 3,000 yards in the air and 2,000 on the ground – he's nearly on pace.

As for name recognition, his school is doing its best. NIU's athletic department launched a Web site devoted to his accomplishments – jordanlynchfor6.com. There are e-mail blasts, complete with pictures and video, as well as weekly updates and Twitter facts of the day – they can be found by using the #lynchlines.

The best, though, was "Lunch with Lynch," a series of short, sit-down weekly interviews with the quarterback, an effort bolstered in late July by mailing out mugs bearing his face and a plastic zippered lunchbox to voters.

The results can be viewed on YouTube.

Certainly, the school is using all of the resources readily available.

It's not pre-Internet 1985, when a Sports Illustrated cover story propelled Joe Dudek, a bruising running back from Division III Plymouth (N.H.) State, to a ninth-place showing in Heisman voting.

Gregg Burke fondly recalls those days, when there wasn't "an ESPN18 with all of the scores on." He was the sports information director at Holy Cross back then, when a star defensive back and halfback named Gordie Lockbaum finished fifth in Heisman voting in 1986 and third a year later.

It hardly mattered he was a two-way player from Division I-AA (now FCS). His story was so romantic, almost mythical – for instance, Burke said Lockbaum was involved in 100 plays during an upset of Army, never leaving the field but then collapsed from exhaustion following the game en route to his parents' car – that when sportswriters heard it, they were riveted.

And they heard about it. Burke went grassroots, calling each state's Heisman representative, which led to calls to each of the voters within the state. Burke, now the men's golf coach at Rhode Island, estimates he reached 55-60 percent of the voting body.

Neither Lockbaum or Dudek ultimately won, but how they captured attention – People magazine and The Today Show paid visits to Worcester, Mass. – was noteworthy.

Not that it would happen today.

"It wouldn't work," Burke said. "Gordie was a great college football player doing something incredibly unique wrapped up in a storybook story at a time when there was just enough innocence about the purity of sports that it was a good story… It would have been different. A lot more people would be poking holes in this fairy tale today than they would have in the past.

"If someone went through this today, there would 97,000 pictures of him with his shirt untucked walking through campus or with a beer cup in his hand – the cell phone has created the greatest media horde in the history of mankind. … I'm not sure this could be pulled off in today's critical media society."

To Huston, where it gets especially tricky for Lynch is with the schedule.

Northern Illinois defeated the Big Ten's Iowa and Purdue earlier this season. Last year, the Huskies' best non-conference win was either Army or Kansas. There was a golden opportunity in the Orange Bowl against Florida State, but the Seminoles rolled, 31-10. Lynch played his worst game – he completed 15 of 41 passes for 176 yards and an interception and ran 23 times for 44 yards.

"If they'd beaten Florida State in the bowl game last year with him, it would have helped him a lot more this year, given him more credence," Huston said.

He points to Boise State, a member of the Mountain West Conference, as the model for all non-AQ candidates. The Broncos recorded key victories against quality opponents, scheduled and otherwise – against Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, against Oregon in 2008, and Virginia Tech and Oregon State in 2010 are just a few.

Coincidentally, Kellen Moore took over as the Broncos' quarterback in 2008. He was fourth in Heisman voting in 2010.

"When given the opportunity, Boise State established itself as legit," Huston said. "Northern Illinois has to do that before one of their players is going to be rewarded as a result. Look at Moore – he was given the chance to play the schedule. Voters need to be able to play a picture in their mind of what a guy is about. If you're from USC or Alabama and you don't play anybody, they'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

"But if you're from Northern Illinois or Boise State, you have to show that you're as good as the other teams, the other players. You have to play against better competition."

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In the end, it will likely be the same for Lynch as it was for Fresno State's David Carr in 2001, when the future NFL No. 1 draft pick was fifth in voting.

York (Pa.) Daily Record sportswriter Frank Bodani, a long-time Heisman voter, seriously considered Carr for the award but ultimately had reservations.

"To me, the overall playing field, nationally, is leveling," he wrote. "Northern Illinois is a winner and can compete with most anyone. Fresno has proven such over time. Same for Boise (State). And so, from time to time, a special talent will emerge on these teams, talent that I believe transcends the handicap of not getting to play 'elite' competition regularly.

"Players at non-automatic qualifying schools need to pass a higher bar, in my estimation. More production is necessary than for a candidate from the SEC or Big Ten. But they should still be considered, should still be part of the conversation."

Part of the conversation, sure, but not leading it.