BILL ENGLISH, New Zealand’s prime minister, looked every inch the victor after the election on September 23rd. “We got better and better,” he crowed as the count rolled in. “No one expected that just three weeks ago.” His centre-right National party won 46% of the vote, putting it ten percentage points ahead of its main rival, Labour, with which some polls had suggested it was neck-and-neck. The result was remarkable not only because Mr English fended off Labour’s telegenic new leader, Jacinda Ardern. It is also striking because, after almost a decade in power and despite a change in leadership, the Nationals seem as strong as ever.

Celebrations, however, are premature. Any leader who can command a majority in the 120-seat parliament may form a government. The Nationals have fallen just short, with 58 seats, but could easily get over the line by allying with the populists of New Zealand First, who won nine seats and 7.5% of the vote (see chart). The prime minister says that his party has the “moral authority” to begin a fourth term, yet Labour has not conceded defeat because it could theoretically stitch together a tenuous trifecta with New Zealand First and the Greens. Winston Peters, the leader of New Zealand First, lost his constituency but will remain in parliament thanks to New Zealand’s system of proportional representation. He now holds the balance of power.