They imagine this shift happening state by state, though you could also imagine it happening city by city. Either way there will be an inevitable patchwork, reflecting differences in both spread and containment. San Francisco may be semi-normal, while things are getting worse in Texas. Places with a terrible infection spike may reopen before places that have a gentler infection curve. Rural states will enjoy a much more normal semi-normalcy than Brooklynites or Chicagoans. There will be “red zones” and “green zones” all across the country, with wide differences in daily life, and much less travel than usual from one region to another.

Alongside this geographical patchwork will be other balkanizations. The emerging coronavirus class divide, with a working class risking their health in the real world and white-collar workers retreating into Zoomspace, will diminish if offices and schools reopen, but it will hardly disappear. The experiences of the young and old will diverge, with over-70 Americans inhabiting a more enduring quarantine. And the minority of Americans who have survived the virus will become a special class, returning more easily to old routines than a majority still afraid of getting sick.

Life at half-capacity. Right now our institutions must survive while essentially closed — with few or no customers, moviegoers, travelers. But soon they will have to figure out how to reopen while maintaining the social distancing that semi-normalcy requires.

Widespread masking may help, if shoppers and commuters wear their masks religiously. But there will still be the challenge of operating persistently at half-capacity — because fewer people will come out, and because there will be rules governing how many people can come in.

Thus the scenes at some grocery stores right now, the line of people six feet apart waiting to come inside and shop, may become a permanent feature of the semi-normal landscape. Churches will hold services with every other pew occupied. Restaurants will seat every other table. Planes could fly without a single middle seat occupied. Sports may resume without spectators, relying on TV revenue alone.