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If any of this strikes you as somehow familiar, you’re not imagining it. The Conservative party is the generally successful (if not always happy) result of the last great conservative schism in Canada, dating to the Reform Party’s break from the Progressive Conservatives in the early ’90s. The split on Canada’s right was a major factor behind the sustained period of Liberal federal dominance — a Liberal winning streak that was ended only when the conservative factions reunited under Stephen Harper.

This context matters. What Bernier is proposing has been tried. The result was a disaster for conservatives, with the Liberals winning successive majorities with only modest popular vote victories relative to the combined conservative vote. That memory lingers for conservatives, and especially among Conservative political types. What Bernier is proposing cannot be contemplated absent the context that this has already happened and, to be blunt, failed.

What Bernier is proposing cannot be contemplated absent the context that this has already happened and, to be blunt, failed

That no doubt explains the immediate, clear reaction from many of Canada’s leading Conservative voices. Stephen Harper, Jason Kenney, Doug Ford — all of these men likely have ideological sympathy for Bernier’s economic positions, and yet all of them were quick to disavow the notion of a new party. “It is clear that Max never accepted the result of the leadership vote and seeks only to divide Conservatives,” Harper tweeted. “His decision today allows the Conservative Party of Canada to move forward united behind our Leader.” “As we’ve seen federally, in Alberta and elsewhere, unity is essential,” Kenney noted. “Unity in a big political movement means that people with divergent views get their say, but may not always get their way. After debate, we agree to respect the consensus. That’s what Maxime did in government.”