Last Friday morning, TDs Sean Canney, John Halligan, Finian McGrath and I bounced into Government Buildings to meet the Taoiseach. Members of the Independent Alliance were energised by the hope of influencing the shape of the next government. For once, we had the ear of the powerful. The encounter was not like a meaningless Dail exchange. The Mayo master of deflection was listening. Uniquely, he even answered questions directly. Our hopes of radical change were raised.

Enda Kenny was conciliatory, attentive, even charming.

Sometime in the middle of the exchanges an awful truth dawned. We were possibly in dialogue with a political corpse.

When Enda Kenny is rejected in the Dail vote for Taoiseach on Thursday he will already be in pretty deep political doo-doo. It is expected that neither he nor Fianna Fail's Micheal Martin will be elected to head the next government, but if Micheal nets more TDs into his camp than the incumbent, the game is up.

Do not expect Enda to hang around. Not only will his government have been beaten in the election, the new Dail will have given more votes to his arch rival for the top job. Although both men will almost certainly be defeated, a higher score for Martin would be a major humiliation for the current Taoiseach.

Kenny starts with 57 (Fine Gael and Labour numbers), while Micheal is 13 behind on 44. The race is on for the uncommitted. That is why the Taoiseach was in listening mode on Friday morning.

All the talk at our meeting was about radical change, but the unwritten script was obvious: Enda's fate is in the balance. Political eyes are fixed no further than the Taoiseach's tally on Thursday. If Enda is caught by Micheal and then resigns as leader of Fine Gael, he will probably still continue, a lame duck, acting Taoiseach. Fine Gael will hold a leadership election.

The party could be in disarray as Frances Fitzgerald, Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney battle for the succession. Micheal Martin may be the only game in town.

In the event of a humiliation, Enda will be toast, burned to a cinder by the voters and incinerated by his own party.

Miraculously, just as Enda and Micheal are locked in mortal battle, the entire political establishment have become overnight converts to 'Dail reform'. This deathbed conversion of Fine Gael rings hollow following their determination to stymie reform at every stage in the last Dail. They went to superhuman lengths to camouflage their conservative convictions with phoney solutions and cosmetic changes. Their genius for spinning meaningless measures as 'reform' was an insult to parliament. It was Fine Gael/Labour that introduced the revolutionary idea of Friday Dail sittings, when virtually no one showed up, as votes were cynically forbidden on Friday to allow TDs to head home.

It was Fine Gael/Labour that introduced 'topical issues', a bogus innovation that allowed more time for pork-barrel politics. It was FG/Labour that ruthlessly used the guillotine to ram through important measures like the property tax. It was Fine Gael/Labour that promised so much but delivered nothing on Dail reform, on quango reform and on cronyism.

The reason was simple: They had the biggest majority in the history of the State. They used their numbers to abuse the Dail. With a guillotine in one hand and a party whip in the other, Dail Eireann has become an assembly that would make Soviet Russia blush.

In Ireland, we have our very own home-grown Soviet politburo, known as the Economic Management Council (EMC). Four senior ministers decide the Cabinet agenda. The Cabinet ratifies the consequent measures and a compliant Dail rubber stamps the legislation. Bills are never defeated, rarely amended and frequently guillotined.

The last Government hated the Dail Chamber. Its very existence was an inconvenience. They curtailed its power and suffocated its discussions.

Suddenly, they have seen the light. St Paul of Tarsus would be proud of them.

The election has forced them to posture about their biblical, blinding flash of light.

Brain-dead political insiders see the election outcome as a problem. Yet any reforming TDs, not obsessed with the safety of their own seats, should welcome it. The so-called political deadlock that has resulted is only a problem for the traditional political mindset.

The message from the electorate is stunningly obvious: The big-party system has been sent packing. The normal arithmetical parliamentary solution - where two-party blocs gang up against the rest of the Dail - has been dismissed. No longer can any combination of two major parties (except Fianna Fail and Fine Gael) settle down to five years of domination. No longer will democracy die the day a new Taoiseach heads for Aras an Uachtarain. The electorate has dictated that the Dail, not the Cabinet, will now make the key decisions.

If a minority government emerges, it will never be certain that its programme is set in stone. Smaller parties or alliances, behaving responsibly, will sometimes be able to decide whether legislation is passed with or without amendment. Bills can be defeated. Legislation introduced by non-government members will be passed by decision of the Dail. Freedom beckons.

In reality, there is no need for Dail reform. The Dail has been reformed. The problem is not awkward Dail numbers, but the failure of the parties to come to terms with the wonderful new order that has been handed to us by the voters. The big Civil War battalions have been sent packing. The results are already forcing them to embrace reform.

So far, the kind of token changes being suggested by them are woefully inadequate. Dazzled by the results, they do not get the message. The electorate requires that TDs of all hues form a stable government, but banish the old regime and its winner-takes-all ethos to history.

If a government is formed in the coming weeks our EMC politburo will probably evaporate. The Cabinet will no longer be a democratic dictator. It will initiate legislation, but will find some of it returned to sender.

In the Independent Alliance, we are delighted with the overall result because it is likely to force a fundamental political earthquake. We regard our refusal to impose a whip on our members as a core driver of the freedom of the Dail to make its own freely- reached decisions. This idea, scoffed at by sniffy political correspondents a few short weeks ago, is now being taken seriously by the entire political world.

During the election, few voters were convinced by the Taoiseach's threat that there would be instability if the Independents held their seats. Nor did they swallow the line that he would not talk to Independents about government formation! Nor are Independent TDs impressed by the implied threat that he will call another election if a deal is not reached.

Both Enda and Micheal have one shot left in their lockers. After the so-called deadlock this Thursday they may abandon the talks with smaller parties and the Independent Alliance. Despite the election result, according to the bookies the most likely outcome of the present flux is a flight to safety. A Fine Gael/Fianna Fail coalition could save Kenny's skin and land a rotating Taoiseach-ship for Micheal Martin. It could torpedo Dail reform and guarantee the continuation of cronyism. It could be political Paradise Regained.

After a few weeks of hand-wringing histrionics, the worst possible result could become a reality. Do not rule it out yet. Otherwise Enda is toast.

Shane Ross is Independent Alliance TD in Dublin Rathdown

Sunday Independent