Some small portion of suburbia – probably that portion nearest to some amenity like a beach or train station – can and should be upgraded to a substantially different pattern. Most of suburbia will be left as it is, perhaps with some minor tweaks like dedicated bike lanes. The least desirable parts of existing suburbia will likely follow a path of underuse, vacancy, deterioration of structures from lack of maintenance, and eventual demolition.

The economics are simple: the developer must be able to buy the land, cover all construction costs, and sell or lease the result at a decent profit.

Thus, the most likely way forward is to concentrate on that 5% or so of suburban areas where there would be demand for a much denser form of development – probably, near beaches and existing train networks, or neighborhoods perceived as “desirable.” This usually means, in practical terms, that they have good schools, low crime, and shared community values.

It also tends to mean higher incomes and a pattern of development (single-family homes with minimum lot sizes) that imply high housing costs. This naturally leads to a demand for a lower-cost housing alternative within these more-desirable neighborhoods. Whether it is a $300K multifamily condo in a neighborhood of $900K detached houses, or a $100K cottage in a neighborhood of $300K detached houses, cheaper and commonly higher-density forms are desired, even as nearby places perceived as “bad neighborhoods” are shunned at any price.

In these neighborhoods, a political concession to higher-density forms might be made along commercial avenues, now dominated by a low-density “strip mall” retail pattern. These locations are seen as less desirable due to traffic noise, and thus potentially suited to lower-cost housing alternatives. Also, worries about traffic/parking problems following multifamily development are mitigated by the direct access to high-capacity roadways. Higher-density development along commercial avenues does not alter the character of existing low-density detached housing neighborhoods. This is a prime opportunity for conversion from a low-density “strip mall” or “big box retail” pattern to a higher-density residential/commercial pattern reflective of traditional modes of urban design.

Realistic Ideas for Retrofit

Retail property, including “big box” retail, is arguably overbuilt in the U.S. today. Especially as more retail moves to the Internet, the United State's vast amount of retail space per person will likely become increasingly underused and finally fall vacant. The United States now has 23.6 square feet of retail space per person, compared to 3.8 square feet in the U.K. and 2.4 square feet in Germany (source).