When the 2014 NFL schedule was first released some eight months ago, I’m sure I wasn’t alone in thinking that a Week 16 clash between the Saints and Falcons would most likely be the moment the NFC South was won or lost. Fast forward 14 games, and that belief still rings true. However, something I hadn’t even dreamt of contemplating, namely that this Week 16 Battle Royale would actually be duked out by two teams with losing records, is also true. Still, it is what it is. Quite frankly, you can throw any talk of winning records and “playoff entitlement” out the window right now. This is do-or-die, must-win football against the Dirty Birds in the Superdome, and with that said, it seems high time we discuss how us at The BoiLa think the Saints can get the edge on the Falcons on Sunday afternoon.

In this Saints Offense Preview I’m actually going to start with a rundown of what’s changed defensively for Atlanta since Week 1, focussing on the impact of such changes and also how they could be exploited by Brees & Co. As well as this, I’m going to finish up by explaining exactly why I don’t think it really matters if Bryce Harris does have to start on Sunday.

1. Is this Falcons D worse than it was in Week 1?

As painful as it was, I forced myself to watch back that fateful Week 1 encounter earlier this week, as well as a number of Atlanta’s more recent matchups. The aim was try and get a handle on this Falcons defense, and also help identify any changes that have been made after 16 tumultuous game weeks.

I’ll start on the defensive line, which looks like it’s going to remain largely unchanged from Week 1’s meeting. Wannabe reality TV star Kroy Biermann is (somehow) still getting the majority of snaps at left end, while Paul Soliai, Tyson Jackson and Jonathan Babineaux should get most of the work in the interior. Additionally, Corey Peters, who missed the Week 1 clash, will also likely spell in at defensive tackle in certain packages. At right end is where it gets a little more complicated for the Falcons. The player who started against the Saints back in September, Jonathan Massaquoi, recently drew the ire of defensive coordinator Mike Nolan for complaining publicly about his dwindling snap counts. As a result, Massaquoi was eventually benched for last week’s game against Pittsburgh, meaning the unheralded duo of Malliciah Goodman and Cliff Matthews shared most of the snaps at right end, with veteran Osi Umenyiora subbing in for obvious passing downs.

From a Saints perspective, the good thing about this Falcons defensive line remaining consistent throughout the season is that there shouldn’t really be any surprises out there. You certainly know what’s coming from this Atlanta pass rush, which could well go some way to explaining why the Falcons have a league-worst 16 sacks this year. To put that into context, the Saints have nearly twice as many (31), while the NFL-leading Buffalo Bills have over three times that amount (49).

Linebacker-wise it also looks set to be a similar set-up to Week 1, with Paul Worrilow the every down MLB, and then Joplo Bartu and Prince Shembo filling in around him. As a unit, all three linebackers have struggled in coverage this season, with Worrilow probably the worst. According to PFF, opposing quarterbacks have an average QB rating of 127.7 when throwing into Worrilow’s coverage, completing 82% of their passes while totalling 566 yards and 5 touchdowns. Certainly encouraging numbers.

However, the biggest changes for the Falcons from Week 1’s meeting look set to be in the secondary. Firstly, former Southeastern Louisiana stand-out and now Falcons starting corner, Robert Alford, broke his wrist back in Week 11 and has since been placed on IR. This has meant that from Week 12 onwards it has been the Falcons usual slot corner, Robert McClain, starting on the outside. Having focussed quite closely on McClain while watching back the games that he has started, it’s fair to say he doesn’t look very comfortable playing on the outside. In addition to this, starting strong safety/part-time rapper “Willy Mo” (William Moore) is questionable with a foot injury that forced him out of last week’s clash against Pittsburgh. Earlier in the season, Moore also suffered a shoulder injury in Week 4 which landed him on the IR designated to return list. In fact, since Week 4 Moore has only played a grand total of 70 snaps. If he does play, you’d hope he’d be rusty at best. If he doesn’t, expect 2013 7th rounder Kemal Ishmael to start in his place. Ishmael has been up and down in 2014, with four interceptions to his name, while also giving up a number of long receptions and big plays.

So, to answer the initial question posed; is this Falcons D worse than it was in Week 1? No… not massively. But then it was hardly lights out back then either. The good thing is that a number of the weaknesses that have plagued this defense all season still remain, which is most probably why it’s ranked last in the NFL in both yards allowed per game and 3rd down %. With statistics like that, it’s hard to get any worse.

2. Should the Saints offense do anything differently?

To be honest, looking back at the film from Week 1, there isn’t really much different that the Saints offense need to do. On that day in the Georgia Dome the Saints ran for 139 yards at 5 yards per carry, passed for 333 yards and scored 34 points. If you had to stress one thing however, it would be turnovers and ball security.

As we all know, Brees threw a costly red zone pick in the third quarter of the first encounter, compounded by the fact it was on a play that would have put the Saints up by 10 if he had managed to connect with Cooks in the end zone. Instead, the pass was intercepted, and with it momentum drained from the Saints for a fair while. In addition to that pick, a Colston fumble in overtime was arguably even more costly, serving as the final regretful nail in the Saints’ coffin. Mistakes such as the above haven’t been quite as rare occurrences as you might expect from their respective perpetrators in 2014, but both Brees and Colston should be more than motivated now to put the record straight against their divisional rivals.

As far as Brees is concerned, coming off the back of an impressive showing against the Bears, he will be looking to take on a Falcons defense that has been torched by #9 in the Superdome on numerous previous occasions. Looking specifically at the matchup on Sunday, Brees may well look to target Robert McClain on the outside. And as always, any plays that draw Worrilow or Bartu into coverage should definitely prove lucrative for the Saints. This is an area where Colston could really come up big, especially with Payton’s propensity to line him up in the slot. Few receivers are better than Colston at finding soft spots in the coverage between linebackers and safeties, so anything that involves him running routes that draw the coverage of these Falcons linebackers should be actively encouraged. Likewise, Pierre Thomas could create a real mismatch on passing downs out the backfield, and Jimmy Graham, although likely covered by FS Dwight Lowery for most of the day, could also have some joy over the middle and down the seams.

On the whole, there’s no reason why the Saints shouldn’t be able to get the run going, get the pass going, and score points on this defense like they did in Week 1. Vastly inferior offenses have moved the chains on this Falcons defense to the tune of 400 yards per game, the Saints are more than equipped enough to do the same.

3. Harris the hindrance? (Version 2.0)

If you’re a regular reader of The BoiLa, you will probably remember we’ve already used the “Harris the hindrance?” sub-title as a discussion point for our Week 10 Offense Preview in the build up to the game against San Fran. For those that didn’t read our preview for that one, the basic gist of it was me hypothesising about the various extra measures the Saints would have to take into account if Bryce Harris had to start instead of Zach Strief, who hadn’t practised all week due to a chest injury. As it was, Strief did in fact get cleared to play in the game, meaning Harris didn’t have to play a single snap. Six weeks down the line, and swapping Strief for Terron Armstead, it looks like we’re back in almost exactly the same situation. Armstead hasn’t practised all week, with Harris poised to deputise if the left tackle can’t go on Sunday.

One thing we have been able to observe since that 49ers game however is getting to see Bryce Harris in some extended action. Harris has been able to play a number of snaps against the Bengals, Panthers and Bears in recent weeks because of in-game injuries to Strief or Armstead. Unfortunately, the majority of what we’ve seen in those outings has been far from encouraging. Carlos Dunlap gave Harris tremendous trouble against Cincy, and Charles Johnson easily got the better of him against the Panthers. In both of those games we graded him out as “Very Bad”. (See his full performance summaries here: Week 11 vs Cincy, Week 14 vs Carolina). To be fair to the under-fire back up though, he did do a better job up against Jared Allen and the Bears on Monday night, with us grading him out at a lofty “Average” on the day. (Full summary here). Certainly a welcome improvement.

Regardless of that though, I think we can all agree that Bryce Harris is a large step down from both Armstead and Strief. With Armstead a “gametime decision” at best for Sunday, it’s looking fairly likely that Bryce Harris will get the start at left tackle. So, we go back to the original question… should we be worried? Is Harris a hindrance? Against a lot of teams, the answer would be a fairly emphatic “Yes”, but looking at the “talent” the Falcons have coming off that right edge, I honestly think Harris can handle them. Looking at the numbers, the right hand side of this much-maligned Falcons front-7 have been unable to take advantage of any matchup, no matter how favourable, all season. Babineaux (RDT), Goodman (RE), Matthews (RE), Umenyiora (RE) and Massaquoi (RE) have combined for a pitiful 5.5 sacks between them in a whopping 1,855 total snaps. That means they rack up only one sack every 337 snaps. To put that into context, Junior Galette on his own this season has 9 sacks in 755 snaps. That’s a fair difference in pass-rush efficiency!

Yes, Bryce Harris is not a starting calibre NFL tackle. Arguably he’s not even close. But if there was ever going to be a game where he looked like one, it’s coming up against these Falcons. If Harris does suit up on Sunday, I’m confident that he, along with the rest of the Saints, can get it done. To coin one of Sean Payton’s favourite motivational monikers, it’s time to “finish strong”.

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Don’t worry, that’s not all for our Week 16 Previews! Check back on Sunday morning for our Defensive Preview, which will be outlining our keys for what looks like the harder task of the week; slowing down that Falcons offense which was painfully too much for the Saints in Week 1. It certainly makes for some interesting reading, so be sure to check back.

Also, to make sure you don’t miss out on that Defensive Preview, as well as any subsequent articles posted to The BoiLa in the future, you can now subscribe to us by E-mail. Look out for the sign-up box which can be found on the sidebar to the right of the screen if you’re viewing on a desktop/laptop, or beneath this post somewhere if you’re using a smaller tablet/phone. (just keep scrolling!) It’s a totally free service, and I can assure you the only e-mails you’ll ever get from The BoiLa will simply be automated notifications that tell you when a new post has been uploaded… What more could you want?!