ST. LOUIS — When rumors circulated at the NHL draft in Montreal last summer that the New York Islanders might take Matt Duchene with the first overall pick, some of their hardened fans threatened to burn their season tickets. Islanders fans had their hearts set on John Tavares, after all.

Nine months later, the question is, “Would the Islanders do it differently if they could?” In the horse race for the NHL’s Calder Trophy for rookie of the year, the Isles’ Tavares is stumbling around in the middle of the pack, while Duchene seems to be picking up another furlong every few days.

In 68 games, Tavares has 18 goals, 18 assists, a minus-18 and 18 penalty minutes. The scoring numbers are respectable, but they don’t stack up to those of Duchene, the No. 3 pick. The Avs’ 19-year-old center has 23 goals, 24 assists and a plus-2. And, just as important, his team has been a surprising success story, while the Islanders appear headed for another nonplayoff finish.

On an off-day here Monday, Duchene said the playoffs remain foremost in his mind but he would be lying if he said the Calder didn’t sneak in as well.

“It’s always there. You have goals you want to achieve, and you only get one shot at it,” Duchene said. “It wasn’t there as much earlier in the year, because your first goal is just to make the team. … Now, things are falling into place a little bit more.”

Duchene’s finances also would improve if he wins the Calder. Rookies no longer are allowed to negotiate bonuses for NHL awards, but the Calder winner gets a mandated $212,500. The runner-up receives $150,000, and third place gets $100,000.

The Islanders say Tavares still is their guy and retain faith he will blossom into one of the NHL’s most exciting players. But Duchene is outpacing all rookies in scoring, which doesn’t come as a surprise to everyone. Du-chene’s junior coach, Brampton’s Stan Butler, said he was the best all-around player in the draft and added, “Matt will lift the Stanley Cup some day.”

Duchene’s boyhood idol, former Avs great Joe Sakic, is no less complimentary.

“He’s just a great hockey player. He’s got the whole package,” Sakic said. “I think what you really see with him is his hockey sense. He just knows how to play hockey. For a young guy, he’s really strong on the puck and just has a good sense and knows where to be.”

Early in the season, Du-chene seemed destined to be an also-ran in the Calder race. He had trouble getting scoring chances, and when he did, he hit a lot of posts and crossbars. He entered a Nov. 18 game in Edmonton without a point in 10 of his previous 11 games, but two first-period assists that night, he said, finally started to calm him down. His production took off after that, and he has been a plus-10 since Feb. 1.

“I remember feeling like those two assists kind of broke my own slump,” Du-chene said. “I’ve always been the kind of player who gets better as the season goes along, because I think I’m always learning. I started watching guys more, where they were scoring from, and started to focus a lot more on just going to the net and not trying to skate 90 mph around some D-man and making five or six fakes before getting a shot off.

“You realize you can’t score goals on a regular basis like that in this league, and I think maybe I was trying to do too much and overcomplicated things.”

Duchene started using a curl-back move that opened up the ice for more options. When he would pass off the puck, he’d immediately go to the net and got some goals off rebounds too. His power-play efficiency improved as well, as 10 of his 23 goals have come on the man advantage.

Hockey analyst Pierre McGuire said the Islanders and Avs couldn’t miss with either Duchene or Tavares, and he isn’t ready to declare one better than the other.

“It’s far too early to tell,” McGuire said. “Tavares will be fine. Duchene is exceptional. And (No. 2 pick) Victor Hedman is going to be really good too.”

Duchene’s biggest competitor for the Calder might be 6-foot-8 Buffalo defenseman Tyler Myers, who not only has been strong defensively but has nine goals and 36 points.

“We won a gold medal together in Russia at the World Championships, and he’s a great guy and a real good player,” Duchene said.

About Tavares, who started off strong but has tailed off in the second half, Duchene said: “I went through the same thing early on, and maybe it’s something he’s going through a little bit right now. But he’s got the kind of ability that very few players have, and I think he’s still going to be a great player.”

Adrian Dater: 303-954-1360, adater@denverpost.com or twitter.com/adater

Calder race

With 47 points entering tonight’s game, Avs center Matt Duchene is the NHL’s rookie scoring leader and a favorite to win the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year. NHL reporter Adrian Dater analyzes his likely competitors:

John Tavares, Islanders center: Hasn’t been the phenom some predicted; has slumped in second half.

Tyler Myers, Sabres defenseman: Strong two-way season will earn votes.

Victor Hedman, Lightning defenseman: No. 2 overall pick has mediocre numbers but huge potential.

Tuukka Rask, Bruins goalie: Has best statistics among rookie goalies.

Niclas Bergfors, Thrashers right wing: Has 19 goals; the prime player Atlanta received from New Jersey in Ilya Kovalchuk trade.

Colorado at St. Louis

6 p.m. tonight on Altitude 2, KCKK 1510 AM

Spotlight on Paul Kariya: The former Avalanche left wing needs one goal to reach the 400 mark in his career. Kariya has points in five of his past seven games for a Blues team still within shouting distance of a playoff spot.

Avalanche: Peter Budaj will start his first game for the Avs since Jan. 8, giving Craig Anderson a night off. Budaj shut out the Blues 4-0 on Dec. 7 at the Scottrade Center. . . . Forwards Stephane Yelle and Cody McLeod are listed as questionable for the game with leg injuries. . . . Right wing Chris Stewart has eight points (five goals) in the past four games. . . . Peter Mueller has at least one point in the six games he has played for the Avs since being acquired from Phoenix.

Blues: Veteran Keith Tkachuk returned Sunday after missing eight consecutive games with a hand injury. . . . St. Louis has won its past three games at home and seven of the past nine games overall. . . . St. Louis is averaging 36.2 shots per game in its past 12. Adrian Dater, The Denver Post