By: Ricardo Russ (@1788sports, @RicardoLRuss)



The last time the Packers visited the Falcons, the Cheeseheads were sent packing with a 44-21 loss to their name as the Falcons progressed on to the second Super Bowl in their history. However, I doubt that the Falcons will come out of Sunday night’s game with as dominant a victory, as that was quite possibly the best Falcons’ performance in the past decade. This is not to say that the Falcons will lose, far from it, but that it should be a very close game.



The Pack finished 7th in Football Outsiders’ overall DVOA during the 2016 season, with the 4th ranked offense and 20th ranked defense. However, full season numbers do not quite capture the entire story, as the Packers started very slowly, falling to 4-6 before ripping off 8 straight wins as the hottest team in the league before being extinguished by the Falcons in the NFC Championship game.



As the numbers show, the Packers offense was clearly better than their below-average defense, and the defense’s subpar performance catalyzed the Packers’ Front Office to acquire new talent via free agency and the draft. The Packers added CB Davon House and OLB Ahmad Brooks through free agency, and drafted Washington CB Kevin King, Wisconsin OLB Vince Biegel, and Auburn DT Montravius Adams. The Packers also added some offensive talent, as they signed TE’s Martellus Bennett and Lance Kendricks, as well as drafting BYU RB Jamaal Williams. To make room for the new signings, the Packers released former team stalwarts such as RB Eddie Lacy and S Micah Hyde.



Any team with a QB as good as Aaron Rodgers should always have an excellent offense, and the 2017 Packers are no exception. Rodgers led the league in TD passes, and also finished 4th in passer rating, which is even more remarkable because the Packers had an anemic running game with Eddie Lacy’s ineffectiveness and injuries. Amazingly, Rodgers also led the Packers in rushing TD’s and he was literally responsible for every Packers offensive TD until week 12, as he was the only Packer with a rushing touchdown. Dude is amazing, and that’s before you get into his improvising ability or his ability to make teams pay for giving up free plays.

Rodgers also has a ton of skill weapons to work with this season. In the WR corps, slot extraordinaire Randall Cobb and deep threat and 2016 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Jordy Nelson headline the group, while Geronimo Allison and Davante Adams add young talent to the group. Similarly, new TE acquisitions Lance Kendricks and Martellus Bennett give Rodgers weapons in the red zone, while WR turned RB Ty Montgomery can be a matchup nightmare no matter where he lines up. Finally, the Packers have the support of a above-average offensive line according to Pro Football Focus.









While the Packers offense is extremely formidable, their defense was decidedly average in 2016 and, while likely improved, will still likely be a weak link in 2017. The Packers did have an effective run defense in 2016, headlined by DE Mike Daniels, who is both one of the NFL’s most stalwart linemen and a huge nerd. However, the Packers ran into major problems in the back 7, as injuries decimated both the LB corps and the secondary. In particular, the Packers suffered a ton of injuries to their CB corps, which led to an extremely ineffective pass defense, despite the good play of Morgan Burnett and Ha-Ha Clinton Dix.

The Packers defensive issues came to a nadir during their games against the Titans and Redskins as the Packers gave up over 40 points to both teams and were ripped apart by big plays, as explained by The Ringer’s Danny Kelly. However, the Packers were able to contain some of the big plays and were able to slow down most of their opponents during their 8 game winning streak, until running into the Falcons’ buzzsaw of an offense.

The Packers D did show a massive improvement during week 1 against the Seahawks, as they kept Seattle out of the endzone and only surrendered 6 points. However, Green Bay absolutely dominated the Seahawks’ perennially awful offensive line, which is unlikely to happen against the Alex Mack-led offensive line of the Falcons.

Prediction:

While the Packers are always going to be dangerous on offense while Aaron Rodgers is in Green Bay, the Falcons’ have a more talented offense, particularly in the RB corps, and have shown similar improvement defensively. Sunday’s game should be an exciting home opener for Mercedes-Benz Stadium, but I back the Falcons to come out victorious.

Score Prediction:

Falcons 35 – Packers 31