

neofate

Caveat Depascor

Premium Member

join:2003-11-11

Birmingham, AL 12 recommendations

neofate Premium Member Google has done a good job - but must move faster to meet hype. Google fiber has 120-140k customers. They have an uptake of ~30 percent which is good, sustainable. They made 100 Million in revenue from 2015 fiscal reports off their fiber offerings. However, 5 years into this and they are at sub 1% coverage of the US. You have to look at pace, and timeline. Google is among the richest entities in the world,.. with one of the highest free capital amounts -- Meaning they *could* cover 75-80% of the US (leaving 15-20 ish percent out due to their rural nature, etc) within 5 years.

Just because 100+ year old phone companies and cable companies take decades upon decades to build their networks doesn't mean that's just as fast as it can go.



If Google were to put it's initiative it put into Kansas City into say the largest city in each state -- or even the largest 2 cities in each state -- They would have MASSIVE coverage within ~2 years -- and THAT would benefit everyone. This would put them in every major operators footprint on a large scale -- as they covered 80% of KC thus far (pretty much a city wide buildout).



That alone would cause Charter (now solidly the 2nd largest provider in the country),.. Comcast (the largest),.. AT&T, and so on to shift their CAPEX into fiber massively. We would stop seeing this 1-2% max of an announced 'fiber city' by AT&T for example coverage (and that = deployed) -- These companies would actually have to invest the money they HAVE into their infrastructure. We'd also have private sector competition across the nation - bringing prices for Broadband, TV, etc down to levels where they should be.



Just take into account the profit margins cable operators have. They obtain around 97% margins on internet services -- yet Charter isn't doing a thing to improve/upgrade it's internet services -- A mistake that will hurt them eventually,.. but it's greedy. Comcast on the other hand is pushing upgrades.. like them or hate them.. so I give them credit, or at least credit for being smart about what is going on around them.



Whether you think we 'need' these speeds or not -- they are being built,.. every Passive Optical Network laid/flipped on is another branch in a massively faster backbone of the US internet landscape. Every channel bonded, every DOCSIS 3.1 upgrade,.. every diplex filter swapped,.. every bit of RF spectrum cleared out for 3.1,.. every expansion of RF spectrum , and so on = faster 'backbone' of our US internet nationwide.



Google Fiber shouldn't need to remind people / the press etc.. that it's Fiber is a real business -- There shouldn't be any doubts.



I'l be honest. If I already had a Fiber connection at home I would probably be more biased towards supporting any Fiber operators existing efforts. I'm at least lucky enough to have AT&T deploying Gigapower in my city -- and live in a neighborhood that is atop the list of infrastructure that is generally always served in these rollouts. But, no notice, no news, nothing yet for me.. so I 'expect' to be skipped over (not get my hopes up) and the monopoly here is Charter. Leaves people in a very 'unexciting' and 'stuck' sort of position for 99%.

Even if/when I get my Fiber connection here,.. I'll still maintain that these operators have to move faster and CAN. Fiber is the future,.. and you have to start now in order to have your footprint covered for the future. Delaying like some are before starting upgrades leaves you at (X years + Y Years to actually buildout/upgrade) before you can compete / tout such ability. Then with the Passive fiber companies the pace is just not quick enough.



At current pace we will achieve 15% per 6 years -- So that puts us on pace for 20+ years before every 1 of 2 people (50%) have such coverage -- and nearly 40 years from now before 90%+ (everyone basically has it).



Just think about how much will shift in 10 years bandwidth wise,.. much less 20-30-40 years. The only thing that will speak to these companies any ever make this deployment in aggregate come together and say by 2026 the majority are served with Gbit speeds from somewhere -- is if the ROI is quite profitable -- IE: If the shareholders are excited (aka: Making money) from Fiber CAPEX then it will be accelerated,.. if it's a loss.. it will be stopped,.. and if it remains as 'expected' say a 20-30% acquisition rate,.. the rate of expansion will remain as it is going now.



I look at Google Fiber's maps and they are sparse. I don't pretend building a network from the ground up is hard, but it's GOOGLE -- Money allows them to do what they want at what speed they wish to do it with. I see them Cherry picking areas even moreso than AT&T - and I wish Google would allocate XX Billion and make their plan much simpler -- Hit largest city in each state (Do complete buildout of all areas that have a density that exceeds (Insert reasonable density of population/homes/businesses) within each city.. so probably ~80% coverage per 48 cities.)



The government should also heavily incentivize Google with subsidies/tax breaks for the number of homes/businesses (able to use service if they want) per Fiscal year. (Perhaps they already do,..) -- They government has paid for the Telco(s) to run FTTH/P to every home in the country a few times over with such breaks -- thus the government needs to step in and enforce what the people paid for. Yes these companies have huge influence/lobby power -- but the Government can still do what it wishes. I think if the people actually knew what they've inadvertantly paid for over the last X decades,.. they might push the government to do just that. Shrug.



At any rate - it will be an interesting next couple to several years -- as this is the 'wild west' of broadband right now. We won't ever have a time like we have now again in our lifetimes -- Some companies see this and some don't. Basically in 10-15 years no company will have the ability to jump in to SO many areas that are served by speeds that were slow 10 years ago (DSL),.. or jump in and Fiber not exist already. So what is done NOW (in the short term) will really be the long term 'footprint' we live with for the next X decades.