However, it represents a 4.5 per cent anti-Coalition swing since the 2013 election, meaning it would have lost as many as 24 seats. Also concerning for Mr Abbott and his supporters is the finding that more voters would still prefer to see former Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull returned to the top, rating him more highly in all 10 of the leadership attributes surveyed in the poll. The Communications Minister enjoys a 20 percentage point lead over Mr Abbott among all voters (39 to 19) and deputy leader Julie Bishop is also ahead of Mr Abbott (24 to 19). In a telling result, just 21 per cent of voters believe Mr Abbott enjoys the confidence of his party - a 32 per cent plunge in a year. Half of all voters (52 per cent) believe Mr Turnbull has the support of his colleagues.

The national poll of 1406 voters shows the government making up serious ground on the Labor opposition and Mr Abbott's personal standing also recovering markedly, although he still trails as preferred prime minister against Labor leader Bill Shorten. Pollster Jessica Elgood said the mixed results reflected several apparently competing assessments by voters. "While the Coalition share of the vote has marginally increased, the ratings for Abbott remain poor, and Turnbull receives very high ratings for his personal attributes," she said. "Voters appear to already be factoring in Abbott's potential departure. They don't like him, prefer Turnbull and assume Abbott is not long in his job." Despite intense internal divisions that had threatened to boil over again at Tuesday's scheduled party-room meeting, the Coalition is now within 1 percentage point of level pegging with Labor.

Labor's primary vote – the share of respondents who said they would mark a "1" next to an ALP candidate were an election held over the weekend – has dropped to 36 per cent, down 4 points in a month. Over the same period, the Coalition's primary vote has rebounded 4 points to a much healthier 42 per cent from 38 per cent. The Coalition secured 46 per cent of the primary vote in September 2013 when it was elected, compared with Labor's paltry 33 per cent. The phone-based poll was taken from February 26 to 28, just as the government struggled through one of its most torrid weeks in Parliament over the Gillian Triggs affair, and has a margin of error of +/- 2.6 per cent.

While Mr Abbott remains a deeply unpopular prime minister – having set a dubious record for being elected with a negative rating – even this index has improved, with his minus 38 per cent rating last month closing by 8 points to now be at a less severe minus 30. That is, 32 per cent of respondents approved of his performance whereas 62 per cent did not. The recovery is reflected in Mr Shorten's rating going the other way with a drop of 10 per cent taking his net approval to zero, that is 43 per cent approval, minus 43 per cent disapproval. Head-to-head, on the specific question of preferred prime minister, Mr Shorten still leads but his margin has been slashed from 16 points to just 5, at 44-39. It had been 50-34 last month. The poll reflects a trend also identified by Newspoll a week ago and suggests voters may now be viewing the possibility of a return to the ALP as less theoretical and more real as a result of Mr Abbott's internal difficulties. If so, it may mean they are not as relaxed about a swift return to the perceived chaos of the last ALP government, as previous surveys have identified. The result represents a stunning recovery by the government, which has appeared at its most divided and shambolic, with a series of damaging leaks against Mr Abbott, a number of ham-fisted political judgments, and manoeuvrings for an alternative leader being pushed by MPs and some ministers privately.

Amid speculation Mr Abbott could face another spill attempt on Tuesday, or in any case before the budget in May, the two leading moderates, Mr Turnbull and Ms Bishop, have both been mentioned in discussions. Two other names have also been flagged as potential starters. Social Services Minister Scott Morrison and Trade Minister Andrew Robb are less fashionable but would be more acceptable to the conservative wings of the Liberal Party. Among declared Coalition voters, Mr Abbott remains the preferred choice of 38 per cent of respondents, 8 points ahead of Mr Turnbull and 17 points ahead of Ms Bishop on 21 per cent. Head-to-head, Mr Turnbull trails Mr Abbott on the question of being easily influenced by minority groups (23 per cent to 30) but leads on nine other categories, with 74 per cent saying Mr Turnbull is competent, against just 39 for Mr Abbott.

Grasp of economic policy has Mr Turnbull ahead 70 to 38, and trustworthiness 55 to 36. It is a similar story on strength as a leader, with Mr Turnbull ahead 60 to 33.