Members of the Australian Special Operations Task Group disembark a United States Air Force C-17 Globemaster at a base in Afghanistan. Adding insult to injury, the leak was swiftly reinforced by a hostile statement from the US president, in the form of his tweet that he's still considering the "dumb deal" with Australia on refugees. Says Professor Curran: "I'm not sure the Trump administration gives a crap about the Australian alliance." And this is the nub of it. An alliance, regardless of the formalities, is a dead letter unless it is infused with political will. Can Australia trust its great and powerful friend? Or, as James Curran puts it: "If you have this sort of tension this early in the life of the administration over relatively small beer, what will happen in the event of a major crisis?"

The Australia-US alliance is not just a document, it's politics. The alliance has never been the security "guarantee" that Australia's leaders like to call it. When the Menzies government first negotiated it, Australia wanted the ANZUS Treaty as firm as America's treaty with Western Europe. Australian soldiers have supported the US in every major war this century, and is the only nation to do so. Commander of our Iraq commitment, Colonel Gavin Keating, with the US Major General Gary J.Volesky, on ANZAC Day 2016. Credit:Gary Ramage Under NATO's Article 5, an armed attack on any member is considered an attack on all. The US refused. So the AUSMIN treaty commits Australia and the US only to "consult" each other in the advent of an "adverse challenge".

In Australia's critical moment of need in a crisis with communism in Indonesia in 1962, the US refused even to go that far. The Kennedy administration declined Australia's request to invoke the treaty. Trump brought bipartisanship to Australian politics this week. Credit:Bloomberg Richard Nixon put Australia on what he called his "shit list" because of Gough Whitlam's robust nationalism. John Howard suffered a jolting disappointment when he asked the Clinton Administration for ground troops in the East Timor crisis of 1999 and was rebuffed. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

How does today's ruction rank? The veteran Australian diplomat Dick Woolcott, who has witnessed the entire life of the 65-year-old alliance, says that this "is right at the top of the list" of difficulties. Because, says Woolcott, it seems to be a symptom of a fundamental problem with the US under Trump: "I don't think he much cares about US allies." US and Australian troops march in Martin Place, Sydney, for the launch of the National Saving Campaign drive for war funds, 17 April 1942. Credit:F.J. Halmarick The alliance, which has never been any guarantee, seems to be entering a zone of exceptional unreliability under Trump. This need not be a disaster for Australia. If this moment of alliance shock can jolt Australia into doing more for itself, the country might mature from a state of adolescent dependency on America into a more adult state.

This is not an argument for dumping the alliance. It's still a valuable asset. It benefits Australia and complicates the calculus of any potential enemy. Loading But unless you think we can bet the country on Donald Trump suddenly developing steady judgement and firm goodwill, this is a time for what Professor Curran calls "greater Australian self-reliance within the alliance." Malcolm Turnbull has been acting as if nothing has changed. This is Trump time. A great deal has changed. Wake up, Australia!