As the WikiLeaks party launches its campaign for the Australian Senate, election guru Antony Green gives it 'next to no chance'

Of all the venues in which Julian Assange might have dreamed of launching his political career, it’s safe to say a library in an inner-city Melbourne suburb via a capricious Skype connection probably wouldn’t have been top of the list.

But it was the homely surrounds of Fitzroy Library where the WikiLeaks party unveiled its candidates, and its abridged policy platform, on Thursday for the upcoming Australian federal Senate election.

Four of the candidates – standing in Victoria, NSW and WA – were physically present. But even before he appeared on a screen behind them, the spectre of Assange loomed over this unusual political launch.

WikiLeaks party operatives vainly attempted to nudge the focus onto the other candidates, but this was always about Assange. Finally, Wizard of Oz-like, the sense of theatre melted away as he appeared on screen.

Assange was wagging his finger and laughing to someone off-screen, a sprightly presence given it was 3am in London, where he has been holed up inside the Ecuadorian embassy for the past two years.

The WikiLeaks founder, who is wanted for questioning in Sweden over allegations of sexual assault, is standing for the Senate seat representing Victoria. The last time Assange was in Australia, the Labor party leader, Kevin Rudd, was in his first stint as prime minister.

However, the ongoing diplomatic impasse over his situation means that should voters flock to Assange, they could well get author and medical ethicist Leslie Cannold, the No 2 on the Victorian WikiLeaks ticket, in his stead.

Assange waved away suggestions that this odd scenario is – ironically for a party with “transparency, accountability, justice” as its catch-cry – a sleight of hand.

“Hopefully, the situation with the US and UK will have resolved by the time I would have to take up the seat in July,” said the grainy figure of Assange, a giant WikiLeaks graphic fidgeting next to his head.

“If not, the Senate is able to give a grace period of a couple of months and then another candidate is able to take my place. People know who they are voting for and there’s no problem in terms of losing the seat.”

Assange said there had been a “gradual decline in Australian democracy”, politicians too remote from their constituents’ needs and guilty of “secret, back-door deals” with big business and US interests. He also bemoaned a lack of media diversity that stymies political debate.

The WikiLeaks party, Assange said, “has at its core a union of people who give a damn, but also candidates who are highly educated and can dissect how the government works. In effect, they will bring investigative journalism to the heart of the Australian Senate and bring the government to account.”

On the day the Coalition announced a military-led response to the vexed issue of asylum seekers, Assange, perhaps the world’s most famous political refugee, conjured up the intriguing scenario of NSA whistle-blower Edward Snowden escaping to Sydney via boat, only for Tony Abbott to launch a search for him, “like the Hunt for Red October”.

“It’s absurd,” he said. “Tony Abbott knows nothing of asylum seeker policy. [The] Australian military defends the sovereignty of Australia, it’s not a plaything for re-enacting fantasy movies for purposes of election campaigns.”

Two other candidates – Kellie Tranter and Gerry Georgatos – outlined further policy on climate change and asylum seekers, respectively. WikiLeaks wants “full disclosure” over the government’s refugee deal with PNG, including host arrangements, health provisions and the conditions of resettlement. The processing of refugees should take no longer than 45 days, according to Georgatos.

Tranter was a little more vague on specific climate change policy, but said the party was committed to reducing emissions, while warning that Australia should not repeat the mistakes of the European emissions trading scheme.

So what are the electoral prospects for the WikiLeaks party? ABC election guru Antony Green has said Assange, the main hope of a Senate spot, has “next to no chance” of achieving this goal.

However, the party points to polling in April that showed that 26% of voters were minded to back its candidates, with support strongest in NSW and Victoria, and among those aged under 30.

Party strategists concede privately that while votes are most likely to flow from supporters of the Greens, led by Christine Milne, Wikileaks will have to distance itself from the party in order to secure support.

Negotiations are underway with other minor parties over preference deals, and WikiLeaks is keen to preference the major parties last. As one party figure pointed out, the measure of Senate success is variable – Steve Fielding was elected in 2004 after his Family First party achieved just 1.9% of the vote in Victoria.

“These people (WikiLeaks candidates) aren’t political people,” said Assange, shortly before the live feed from London became garbled and finally died. “They are academics. They are the people we need to keep the bastards honest.”

To add to its day of technological problems, with WikiLeaks party website was down for a lengthy period following the launch due to what it called a “direct denial of service attack”.