Miami Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard is going to see his 2019 season go one of two ways: either he’s going to continue his stellar rate of play and cement himself as one of the best defensive backs in all of football — becoming a household name in the process, or he’s going to experience a dip in production and instigate a swell of knee jerk reactions to whether or not the Dolphins did the right thing by offering him a sizable extension prior to this season.

Worry not, Dolphins fans. We are here to set the record straight with this fearless forecast of Xavien Howard’s stat line for the 2019 NFL season. Over the last two seasons, Howard has averaged the following stat line:

42 total tackles, 5.5 interceptions and 12.5 passes defensed

Will Howard meet those expectations under new leadership in head coach Brian Flores? We say yes. There’s a few factors supporting either side of the fence — one of them is the impact Brian Flores helped have on cornerback Stephon Gilmore in 2018. Under Flores’ direction, Gilmore set a career high in passes defensed in 2018 with a total of 20, an impressive number that fell one short of leading the NFL last season.

Yet much of Howard’s ball production to date has come by converting interception opportunities — those chances may not come as handily as in years past for Howard as quarterbacks grow more wary of Howard’s skill in baiting throws.

A quick glance of recent NFL cornerbacks to have double digit interceptions in their second and third NFL seasons combined shows that a drop off in year for for ball production is completely normal.

Miami’s own Patrick Surtain had 15 interceptions between 1998 and 1999 and saw his total drop to 5 in 2000. Richard Sherman had 16 between 2012 and 2013 but saw his tally fall to 4 in 2014. Darrelle Revis tallied 11 in 2008 and 2009 but teams were so scared to throw at him in 2010 that Revis actually logged 0 interceptions that season.

So while the impact of Brian Flores should continue to let Howard hunt the ball, his reputation as a ballhawk will work against him.

The critical factor here is Howard’s health. If he’s healthy, he’ll get a bonus four games to pad his stats relative to what he produced in 2018. Assumed health and Brian Flores are enough to keep Xavien Howard plenty productive in 2019, even if his chances in coverage are diminished thanks to his reputation. And that’s why we are forecasting the following stat line for Xavien Howard this season:

55 total tackles (career high), 6 interceptions and 18 passes defensed (career high)