"Imperial declines...are nearly always associated with fiscal crises," and these fiscal crises are the result of the rising costs of servicing debt, according to Niall Ferguson (via Zero Hedge).

In a speech to the Center for Independent Studies in Australia, Ferguson breaks down why empires fall and the current threat to the U.S. through its own emerging fiscal crisis.

Beneath is the introduction, but the full speech is worth watching. He walks step-by-step through previous examples of imperial downfall. And the similarities between those empires, and the U.S.

Pay particular attention to this portion, focusing on the United States. Also, Ferguson's breakdown of the U.S. fiscal position he makes here puts into perspective how our interest payment problem is about to get out of control.

And, in the concluding segment, Ferguson makes the allegation, "the United States is on a completely unsustainable fiscal course with no apparent political means of self-correcting," suggesting China, now selling U.S. Treasuries, may now be taking this view.