PRFC dropped a 2-1 home game to the Monarchs just three weeks ago despite dominating the flow of play. Here’s what they have to do to ensure a 2nd straight Western Conference Finals for the side.

#1 PRFC & #4 Real Monarchs were the only two higher seeded teams to win their first round matches.

Head To Head / How They Got In

Phoenix Rising FC entered the USL Championship playoffs as the #1 overall seed and Supporters Shield winner, with the best regular season record in USL history, surpassing 2018 FC Cincy’s totals for both wins and points in a single season, with a final record of 24-6-4, good for 78 points – 10 points clear of the East’s #1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds and 18 points clear of the West’s #2, Reno 1868 FC. The Rising’s incredible season was highlighted by a 20 game winning streak, the longest in American pro soccer history – and a 13-3-1 record at Casino Arizona Field, with the only loss coming to the team they face this week – the Real Monarchs, who came into Phoenix three weeks ago and emerged victorious 2-1 despite being out-shot by Phoenix 24-11 and the Rising holding 59% of possession. Real was awarded a late penalty in the 74th minute that was converted by striker Mikeal Chang, who is Real’s leading goal scorer with 14 on the season. Phoenix struck back via backup striker Ben Spencer’s 4th tally in 5 games to tie the game at 1 in the 82nd minute. However, Kyle Coffee took a late shot at Rising keeper Zac Lubin, who let the ball slip through his fingers in the 94th minute to give the Monarchs 3 points, the first team to take all three from the Rising at Casino Arizona Field all season.

Phoenix rebounded the next week with a comprehensive 3-1 win over the OKC Energy to close out their regular season campaign, and the Monarchs closed out their campaign with an impressive 3-0 win over Sacramento Republic FC on the road, carrying an impressive unbeaten run of 8 out of their last 9 matches, with the only loss coming to the RGV Toros on September 21st. That run took them up the league table and clinched them a top 4 seed in the West, a result that looked hard to imagine when the Rising came from two goals behind to beat Real at Zions Bank Stadium in Utah. After the Rising’s 20 game winning streak concluded with a 2-1 loss to Fresno FC, Phoenix finished by winning only 5 of their last 9 matches, as teams began to load up the back and limit the Rising’s trademark counter-attacking style that has produced so many goals this season.

Rising And Real In Post-Season

PRFC as the #1 seed in the West, awaited the lowest seeded winner of the two play-in games this week. That low-seed was the #8 Austin Bold F.C., who despite losing 6-0 the last time they came to Casino Arizona Field, stacked the back and denied the Rising a goal, their first goalless 90 minutes all season. In extra time, the result was the same, despite a couple near misses. So, the teams went to penalties – and Rising fans, as usual, had to feel their hearts sink – given that the team has never won a single game in PK’s in franchise history, including a 5-4 loss this year in US Open Cup play against New Mexico United. Alas, despite a 8 round marathon, Zac Lubin stopped Bold’s Jermaine Taylor, setting up this historic shot from Rising defender AJ Cochran to send the Rising into the West semi-finals:

For the Monarchs, they dominated the #5 seeded Orange County SC 6-2 at home – clearly showing that they are still in form and must be feeling extremely confident going into Friday night’s game, which will be a $1 Beer Night match.

How It Goes Down

Right now, Real is playing some of the best ball in the USL. With that being said, they were doing the same when they came to Casino Arizona Field three weeks ago and eked out a 2-1 win that many considered poorly officiated and due to a fluke that we probably won’t see twice in one season. The Rising controlled nearly all of the play in the first half, but just couldn’t convert plenty of chances into an early lead. The Rising are 22-0-0 this year when scoring first.

Expect this game to be tight – this a real possibility of a Rising loss. More of us expected a larger statement last week against Austin, but didn’t get much of one at all, but going into PKs and getting a win is still going to put some wind in the sails. This is a revenge game for the Rising as well – Monarchs players were not gracious in their victory three weeks ago despite obviously being out-played.

The key for Phoenix is to score first, and preferably, second, and to do it early. Beating the “stuffing the box” routine has to be something the team has worked on all week, and an early goal or two to the Rising would force Real to open up their offense and expose them to Phoenix’s deadly counter attack. I don’t know if we’ll see any lineup changes, but perhaps Riggi or JJ may sub in for Jose to give the Rising a proven goalscorer and playmaker in more of an attacking midfield position. Schantz may even attempt to come out early in a converted 3-4-3 or 3-2-5 to attempt to score an early goal to take the pressure off of the team as the game wears on.

The Rising, including Solomon Asante, have lacked some of the confidence they had earlier in the year, and it shows. I do expect them to come out fired up in front of what might be the biggest crowd in PRFC history with a Western Conference Finals home match on the line, but Real’s recent form will given the the confidence to match that fire. But if both teams are playing even strength, based on talent, it’s advantage Rising. The home crowd atmosphere should be incredible, and I think that could be a huge advantage in pushing PRFC to get on the board early.

How They’ll Line Up & Prediction:

Could also see Riggi coming off the bench late if needed

This is a tough one to call. LAFC, who has had a similar campaign to the Rising in MLS, lost in the MLS Cup Playoffs due to a similar stuff the box style, but what causes me some optimism is that Real’s defense wasn’t particularly successful at preventing shots – the Rising just happened to be unlucky, and if not for a PK and a fluke goal, win that game 1-0 at home. Still, this match is going to be a nail biter and a VERY difficult one for PRFC to grab a “W” out of if they can’t score in the first 25 minutes. With that being said, throughout this year, the Rising have proven time and time again that when the gauntlet is down, they will answer the call. This is a determined group of mature youngsters and seasoned vets who have an excellent coach at the helm and have been zeroed in on one goal all year: to win the USL Cup. I see the Rising grabbing a goal or two early and going on to win this one 3-1.

Let’s keep our fingers crossed and believe in our boys that we can keep the dream alive. Good luck Rising!