Pakistan census points to an impending existential threat

30.08.2017

Bildergalerie Das Leben in Balochistan

New data reveals Pakistan's population has ballooned by 57 percent in two decades to 207.8 million. This has not only raised concerns about the state's ability to provide for its people, but also caused a wave of anger.

Political parties in Pakistan are busy sparring over the accuracy of the recently-held census, and religious groups are preoccupied bashing America for its alleged threats to Islamabad. This leaves civil society and social scientists wondering: who will take the country's growing population's impact on security and prosperity seriously?

Pakistan's population has ballooned to 207.77 million, according to provisional census results. This is a 57 percent increase since the last census nearly two decades ago. After the South Asian nation was established 70 years ago following India's partition, the region that constitutes modern-day Pakistan had a population of 33.7 million.

Recently, the most explosive population growth has taken place in Pakistan's major cities, western provinces and tribal areas that border Afghanistan.

'A large share of the nation's budget is taken away by the military'

Bitterness among regions

The census results have caused a wave of anger across the country with smaller provinces lambasting the federal government in Islamabad for "rigging" the data. Squabbling politicians want to protest the census numbers because they complain their regions' real population sizes are higher. They say the government does not want to increase its funding to local authorities to reflect this.

"The large share of budget is taken away by the Pakistani military," said former Finance Minister Dr. Mubashir Hasan. "The rest is taken by capitalists, feudals and bureaucrats. Unless we cut down the military budget, abolish feudalism and distribute lands, we will see nothing but a myriad of problems with this rising population," Hasan told DW.

Read more: Altaf Hussain: 'Slash Pakistan's military aid until reverse in pro-jihadist policies'

Facing realities

Amidst this political wrangling, civil society groups are worried about the implications of this census that shows a 57 percent increase since in 1998.

"If the state does not perform its duty with regard to the provision of basic amenities then the situation will be catastrophic," Farooq Tariq, a Lahore-based activist, told DW. "More than 67 percent of people are already living without concrete roofs, 35 percent of peasants are landless and over 60 million are living in poverty," he added.

Experts say water scarcity in Pakistan is a bigger threat than terrorism

With Pakistan spending just 0.9 percent of its GDP on health, and 2.6 percent on education, Tariq fears poverty will increase even more in the coming decades.

- Pakistan's urbanization: 'A challenge of great proportions'

- Water scarcity in Pakistan – A bigger threat than terrorism

Conscious of the regional bitterness and wave of protests the recent census has triggered, Dr. Mehdi Hasan, a renowned intellectual and author, warns the results will only compound the country's existing challenges.

"More than 20 million children are out of schools, and then another 43 percent of the students drop out before passing their fifth grade," Hasan told DW. "[You can] expect millions more that will be added to this figure with the rising population."

Money troubles

Pakistan's current deficit is already alarmingly high and the country's exports are dwindling. Despite the government's borrowing binge over the last four years, the South Asian country is still grappling with a deteriorating economic situation.

Economist Zia Uddin says: "With this trend of the rising population, our debts, which are already close to $70 billion (58 billion euros), are set to rise."

Uddin says that Pakistan's tax-to-GDP ratio at 4 percent is the lowest in the region.

Uddin warns of economic trouble ahead, saying, "Our resources are so meagre that they were not enough even before this census."

Karachi Circular Railway to reopen with Chinese help Halted connectivity Before coming to a standstill in 1999, Karachi Circular Railway's public transport system connected the southern port city’s suburban areas to its industrial and economic zones. Karachi is Pakistan's most populous city with an estimated 20 million people living there. Yet the city has no proper public transport system. Karachi Circular Railway to reopen with Chinese help Chaos and pollution Once the project is completed, it will help relieve the city's chaotic traffic and reduce massive air pollution. Karachi Circular Railway to reopen with Chinese help Settlements on railway A large part of the 43-kilometer-long circular railway still exists. However, people have built settlements around and even on the track. Karachi Circular Railway to reopen with Chinese help Demolish and build According to official estimates, around 5,000 houses and more than 7,000 other structures along the former railway line need to be demolished to revive Karachi Circular Railway. The project is expected to start this year despite many obstacles. Karachi Circular Railway to reopen with Chinese help Residents resist project In April, violent protests erupted in slums in reaction to the government's evacuation efforts. The inhabitants, who have been living close to the railway line for a long time, clashed with police and set bulldozers to fire. Karachi Circular Railway to reopen with Chinese help Part of the 'New Silk Road' The new railway line in Karachi is part of China's Silk Road initiative. The money for it comes from Beijing's multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project.

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National security

Many analysts predict the country's biggest challenge of the coming decades will be ensuring national security in the face of an exploding population. Analyst Ahsan Raza believes this rapid population growth and the reality of meagre resources will likely strengthen religious and extremist forces in Pakistan.

"We already have around 79,000 registered and unregistered seminaries across the country where poor people with a large family have been putting their kids," Raza told DW. These seminaries, also known as madrassas, provide free food and lodging to its students, making it an attractive option for impoverished communities.

However, Raza warns that these madrassas will mushroom across remote regions of the country to compensate for the state's inability to provide for a growing population. "More people will send their children to religious seminaries, which means that you will have more religious intolerance, sectarianism and extremism," he explained, "which ultimately further complicates the security situation."

Read more: Pakistani civil society alarmed over the disappearance of liberal activists

Cities are also not immune to the potential rise in religious extremism, with already more than 30,000 religious schools in urban centers. Raza said, "They teach mathematics, physics, and other science subjects (but) go and visit these schools and you will feel as if you are in a madrassa."

There is a fear that religious groups and organizations will continue to step in where the state fails to provide for its growing population, and as Raza surmises, there will be "more jihadi and sectarian warriors in the coming decades that will not only target alleged infidels but the liberal and secular-minded people of the country."

Pakistan: A decade of deadly terrorist attacks 2007 - Twin blasts rock Karachi on former PM’s return Two bomb blasts struck former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s motorcade on October 18, 2007 in the southern port city of Karachi. Bhutto was returning to Pakistan after almost eight years. The attack left 139 people dead. Bhutto, the first democratically elected female head of an Islamic country, died in an attack two months later, on December 27 in the northern city of Rawalpindi. Pakistan: A decade of deadly terrorist attacks 2008 - Wah bombing The Wah bombing was a double suicide attack on the Pakistan Ordinance Factories (POF) in Wah on August 21, 2008. At least 64 people died in the attack, which remains to date the deadliest on a military site in Pakistan's history. A spokesman from Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack. Pakistan: A decade of deadly terrorist attacks 2008 - Insurgents target luxury hotel in the capital At least 60 people died and over 200 were injured when a truck filled with explosives detonated in front of the Marriot Hotel on September 20, 2008, in the Pakistani capital Islamabad. Five foreign nationals were among the casualties, while another 15 were injured. Pakistan: A decade of deadly terrorist attacks 2009 - Peshawar bombing A car bomb was detonated in Mina Bazar (a market for women and children) in the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar. The bomb killed 125 people and injured more than 200 others. The Pakistani government put the blame on the Taliban, but both Taliban and al-Qaida denied involvement in the attack. Pakistan: A decade of deadly terrorist attacks 2009 - Market in Lahore targeted The December 2009 Lahore attacks were a series of two bomb blasts and a shooting which occurred in a crowded market in the country’s second largest city of Lahore on December 7. At least 66 people were killed. Most of the victims were women. Pakistan: A decade of deadly terrorist attacks 2010 - Suicide bomber targets volleyball match A suicide car bomb killed 101 people at a village volleyball game in the northwestern district of Bannu. Pakistan: A decade of deadly terrorist attacks 2010 - Lahore Massacre The May 2010 Lahore attacks also referred to as the Lahore Massacre occurred on May 28, 2010, during Friday prayers. 82 people were killed in simultaneous attacks against two mosques of the Ahmadi minority. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attacks. Pakistan: A decade of deadly terrorist attacks 2010 – Bomber targets market in tribal area A suicide bomber killed 105 people in a busy market in the northwestern tribal district of Mohmand. The suicide bombing occurred on July 9 in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan. The target of the attack was believed to be a meeting of tribal elders. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attacks. Pakistan: A decade of deadly terrorist attacks 2011 - Police training center in Charsadda attacked A double bombing occurred on May 13, 2011, in Shabqadar Fort in the Charsadda District of northwestern Khyber Pukhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. Two suicide bombers killed at least 98 people outside the police training center. At least 140 people were injured. The explosions occurred while cadets were getting into buses for a ten day leave after their training course. Pakistan: A decade of deadly terrorist attacks 2013 - Peshawar church bombing On September 22, 2013, a twin suicide attack took place at All Saints Church in Peshawar, Pakistan. It was the deadliest attack on the Christian minority in the country, killing 82 people. The TTP-linked Islamist group, Jundalah, claimed responsibility for the attack. Pakistan: A decade of deadly terrorist attacks 2014 - Peshawar school massacre On December 16, 2014, seven gunmen affiliated with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) conducted a terrorist attack on the Army Public School in the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar. The militants opened fire on school staff and children, killing 154 people, including 132 school children. This was the deadliest terrorist attack ever to occur in the country. Pakistan: A decade of deadly terrorist attacks 2015 – Gunmen target bus in Karachi Eight gunmen attacked a bus on May 13, 2015, in Safoora Goth, in Karachi, Pakistan. The shooting left at least 46 people dead. All of the victims were from the Ismaili Shia Muslim minority. Banned militant group Jundallah claimed responsibility for the shooting. Also, pamphlets supporting the Islamic State terrorist group, with whom Jundallah claims allegiance, were found at the crime scene. Pakistan: A decade of deadly terrorist attacks 2016 – Lahore park bombing On March 27, 2016, at least 75 people were killed in a suicide bombing that hit one of the largest parks in Lahore. The attack targeted Christians who were celebrating Easter. Fourteen of the dead were identified as Christians, while the rest were Muslims. The majority of victims were women and children. Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a group affiliated with the TTP, claimed responsibility for the attack. Pakistan: A decade of deadly terrorist attacks 2016 – Quetta hospital bombing On August 8, 2016, terrorists targeted the Government Hospital of Quetta in Pakistan with a suicide bombing and shooting that resulted in the death of over 70 People. The fatalities were mainly lawyers who had assembled at the hospital where the body of fellow attorney, Bilal Anwar Kasi, president of the Balochistan Bar Association, was brought after he was shot dead by an unknown gunman.

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S Khan (Islamabad)