Vanderbilt closer to bowl game than most realize

Can Vanderbilt be bowl bound?

Following Saturday's 21-17 win over Kentucky, advancing to a bowl game is much closer than many of the West End faithful probably realize.

The Commodores, now 4-6, may only need one more win in their final two games to earn a bowl berth.

Sound crazy?

Let me explain: Because the bowl field expanded by two games this season (welcome, AutoNation Cure Bowl in Orlando, the Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl in Arizona), there are now 80 NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision teams needed to fill out the 41-game schedule. Remember, the two teams in the College Football Championship game play twice.

That's four more teams than last season. That's 10 more than in 2013.

And it also means that a couple of five-win teams could be needed to complete the field. In past years, six wins meant that teams reached the cherished "bowl eligible" status. And then, some of those (as MTSU knows well) stayed home.

Not anymore.

There's a very good chance that a couple of 5-7 teams will advance. And if that happens, the tie-breaker isn't based on strength of schedule. It isn't based on which bowl city wants your team. It isn't based on who's got the best mascot.

It's based on the beloved Academic Progress Rating. Yep, if 5-7 teams are needed, then the NCAA will slot them based on their APR. Vandy's 983 is among the nation's best.

The NCAA holds institutions accountable for the academic progress rate of their student-athletes through a team-based metric that accounts for the eligibility and retention of each student-athlete for each academic term. The NCAA penalizes programs with low APRs. It provides perks to those who have high APRs.

So, if Vanderbilt beats Texas A&M or Tennessee in the next two weeks and gets to win No. 5, the NCAA could make a call to athletic director David Williams.

And would he accept the bid?

"Yes! Absolutely, yes!" Williams exclaimed after watching the Commodores win their second SEC home game in a row.

Williams said that he and Candice Storey Lee, the Commodores' associate athletic director for internal affairs, talked about this very scenario a few days ago.

The bid would be a sign of the tremendous progress that the Commodores have made in coach Derek Mason's second year.

The SEC has working agreements with 10 bowl games and that does not include the four-team College Football Playoff. The SEC champion is likely headed to the Final Four.

The SEC's No. 2 team will play in the Sugar Bowl, the SEC's No. 3 team will play in the Citrus Bowl, Nos. 4-9 will play in the Outback Bowl, the TaxSlayer Bowl, the Music City Bowl, the Texas Bowl, the Belk Bowl and the Liberty Bowl. Vanderbilt can forget those eight.

If the Commodores advance to a bowl, it could be the Birmingham Bowl on Dec. 30 or the Independence Bowl on Dec. 26.

Or, the NCAA could assign them to a bowl game not connected with the SEC. If a conference fails to field enough bowl-eligible teams to satisfy their bowl quota, the NCAA could place a 5-7 team in one of those games.

Yep, it's a tad confusing.

Of course, there is a way that they don't need to worry about 5-7 records and APRs. Just get to win No. 6; it's still the coveted number. They can get to that mark by winning the final two games on the schedule: vs. Texas A&M on Nov. 21 and at Tennessee on Nov. 28.

If they play like they have in their last three SEC games, getting to No. 6 is not as unrealistic as was once thought.

Reach Dave Ammenheuser at 615-259-8352 and on Twitter @NashSportsEd.