It has been an eventful off-season for the Dallas Cowboys. After inking DeMarcus Lawrence to a five-year, $105 million deal ($65 million in guarantees), the team now has their sights set on quarterback Dak Prescott. Prescott is a divisive player among fans and critics alike as some have weaved a narrative he is afraid to pull the trigger and is a system quarterback.

In truth, Prescott is a much better player than he is given credit, and there is a big reason why he is scheduled to become one of the highest paid quarterbacks in the NFL.

Accuracy

Prescott has been labeled as a dink-and dunk quarterback, with the public perception being he only throws short passes. Those claims match up when talking yards per attempt. His career average is 7.4, slightly higher than the league average at 7.2. But when looking at his completion percentage at various depths of the field his efficiency becomes more apparent.

The chart below shows Prescott’s completion percentage sans quarterback hits. Pro Football Focus recently delved into the merits of measuring completion percentage from a clean pocket (without pressure). They found that completion rate under pressure is correlated at a rate of 0.30 while clean-pocket completion rate hovers at 0.52. This means that QB performance from a clean pocket is more stable year to year, and is thus more predictive.

As the chart shows, Prescott is fairly accurate with passes at a 20-35 yard range. His accuracy does tend to wane at the deepest possible ranges of 45 yards or more. If there is a key takeaway here it is that Prescott can make all of the necessary passes, and he can do it at a rate that is above average at various depths from the line of scrimmage.

Aggressiveness

According to Next Gen Stats’ Aggressiveness metric, which tracks the amount of passing attempts where a defender is within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. Prescott threw into some of the tightest windows in 2018 and was tied for No. 8 with a mark of 17.7 percent. He threw into tighter coverage at a higher rate in 2017, having to thread the needle on 19.2 percent of his passes. The addition of Amari Cooper, one of the league’s best route runners, help immensely.

Prescott’s high aggressiveness in the passing game is a double-edged sword. On one hand it could be seen as a good thing because it means that he is not afraid to make tough throws. However, having a high aggressiveness is not necessary for offensive success. For instance, Patrick Mahomes was ranked No. 36 in terms of aggressiveness, and the Kansas City Chiefs achieved the most efficient passing offense in 2018 per Football Outsiders DVOA metric (62.9 percent).

As a polar opposite, in 2018 the Cowboys were one of the league’s worst in Passing DVOA (-0.8 percent). It could be argued this is merely a symptom of the team’s style of play. But it is something that will need to be improved in order for Prescott to further develop as a cornerstone player. Having to constantly throw into tight coverage would be hard to sustain.

Approximate Value

To start his career Prescott has captained a Cowboys team that has won 32 games in three seasons, a win-rate of 66 percent. He has started in 48 career games boasting a record of 32-16, and achieved Pro Bowl status in 2016 and 2018 respectively.

According to Pro-Football-References’ Approximate Value, which places a value on each player for each season across all periods of the NFL, Prescott is one of the top ranked quarterbacks in terms of AV since entering the league in 2016.

Prescott is tied with Russell Wilson over the last three seasons. In that same span he has 14 game winning drives and 8 fourth quarter comebacks. There is no denying Prescott’s impact on the team, and he has been a crucial factor in the Cowboys’ recent string of success.

This off-season Prescott is expected to become the one of the highest-paid players in the NFL. Most would argue about why this is a bad idea, but there is evidence that suggests he is worthy of a massive contract, especially considering value at the quarterback position.

A steep talent drop off leaves some teams in a relative no man’s land year in and year out. The Cowboys are one of the rare teams that hasn’t had to wander aimlessly in quarterback purgatory. Not every franchise can go from Tony Romo to Dak Prescott in the span of a year. It is something that the Cowboys faithful should not take for granted.