Speculation about Islamabad's plans to integrate Pakistan-administered Kashmir, officially called "Azad Kashmir," with mainland Pakistan has been circulating for some time.

Pakistan and India both rule part of the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, but claim it in full. The area is a flashpoint between the nuclear-armed archrivals. China, too, has some territorial claims in the area.

Earlier this month, Raja Farooq Haider Khan revealed that he could be the final prime minister of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, giving credence to speculation and rumors, and triggering a wave of concern over the future of the territory.

India's August 5 decision to abrogate Jammu and Kashmir's special status to integrate it into its territory has fueled speculation on the future of the restive region.

Chinese money

Kashmiri nationalists feel that significant investment from China, which has a long border with Kashmir, is a key factor prompting Islamabad to abandon its decades-old stance over the disputed territory.

China is pouring $57 billion (€51 billion) into Pakistani infrastructure and energy projects — more than in any other South Asian nation.

Islamabad is working to convince Beijing to beef up its investment in Pakistan, whose economy has been on a downturn for more than 18 months, prompting criticism from Kashmiri nationalists who say that Islamabad will do anything to attract foreign investment.

Read more: India and Pakistan's troubled history

Tauqeer Gilani, president of Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front — a nationalist organization working in Pakistan-administered Kashmir — fears that Beijing's investment in the disputed territory may have catastrophic consequences.

"The Chinese are business-oriented people," Gilani said. "They want to invest money in our region, but they also want to secure it because ours is a disputed territory and taking business initiative in such a territory is highly risky. Therefore Beijing is perhaps pushing Islamabad to decide the legal status of our region and annexation is one of the easiest ways to do so."

Gilani warned such a move would trigger a wave of anger across the territory. "Look what China did in Sri Lanka, what is it doing in Africa? How can we allow any change in the status of our region for the sake of Chinese investment and Pakistan's ruling elite? We want an independent Kashmir, free from both India and Pakistan."

Read more: India abolishes Kashmir's autonomous status

India-Pakistan rivalry: Kashmiris pay a high price An unprecedented danger? On February 27, Pakistan's military said that it had shot down two Indian fighter jets over disputed Kashmir. A Pakistani military spokesman said the jets were shot down after they'd entered Pakistani airspace. It is the first time in history that two nuclear-armed powers have conducted air strikes against each other.

India-Pakistan rivalry: Kashmiris pay a high price India drops bombs inside Pakistan The Pakistani military has released this image to show that Indian warplanes struck inside Pakistani territory for the first time since the countries went to war in 1971. India said the air strike was in response to a recent suicide attack on Indian troops based in Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan said there were no casualties and that its airforce repelled India's aircraft.

India-Pakistan rivalry: Kashmiris pay a high price No military solution Some Indian civil society members believe New Delhi cannot exonerate itself from responsibility by accusing Islamabad of creating unrest in the Kashmir valley. A number of rights organizations demand that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government reduce the number of troops in Kashmir and let the people decide their fate.

India-Pakistan rivalry: Kashmiris pay a high price No end to the violence On February 14, at least 41 Indian paramilitary police were killed in a suicide bombing near the capital of India-administered Kashmir. The Pakistan-based Jihadi group, Jaish-e-Mohammad, claimed responsibility. The attack, the worst on Indian troops since the insurgency in Kashmir began in 1989, spiked tensions and triggered fears of an armed confrontation between the two nuclear-armed powers.

India-Pakistan rivalry: Kashmiris pay a high price A bitter conflict Since 1989, Muslim insurgents have been fighting Indian forces in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir - a region of 12 million people, about 70 percent of whom are Muslim. India and Pakistan have fought two of their three wars since independence in 1947 over Kashmir, which they both claim in full but rule in part.

India-Pakistan rivalry: Kashmiris pay a high price India strikes down a militant rebellion In October 2016, the Indian military has launched an offensive against armed rebels in Kashmir, surrounding at least 20 villages in Shopian district. New Delhi accused Islamabad of backing the militants, who cross over the Pakistani-Indian "Line of Control" and launch attacks on India's paramilitary forces.

India-Pakistan rivalry: Kashmiris pay a high price Death of a Kashmiri separatist The security situation in the Indian part of Kashmir deteriorated after the killing of Burhan Wani, a young separatist leader, in July 2016. Protests against Indian rule and clashes between separatists and soldiers have claimed hundreds of lives since then.

India-Pakistan rivalry: Kashmiris pay a high price The Uri attack In September 2016, Islamist militants killed at least 17 Indian soldiers and wounded 30 in India-administered Kashmir. The Indian army said the rebels had infiltrated the Indian part of Kashmir from Pakistan, with initial investigations suggesting that the militants belonged to the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammad group, which has been active in Kashmir for over a decade.

India-Pakistan rivalry: Kashmiris pay a high price Rights violations Indian authorities banned a number of social media websites in Kashmir after video clips showing troops committing grave human rights violations went viral on the Internet. One such video that showed a Kashmiri protester tied to an Indian army jeep — apparently as a human shield — generated outrage on social media.

India-Pakistan rivalry: Kashmiris pay a high price Demilitarization of Kashmir Those in favor of an independent Kashmir want Pakistan and India to step aside and let the Kashmiri people decide their future. "It is time India and Pakistan announce the timetable for withdrawal of their forces from the portions they control and hold an internationally supervised referendum," Toqeer Gilani, the president of the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front in Pakistani Kashmir, told DW.

India-Pakistan rivalry: Kashmiris pay a high price No chance for secession But most Kashmir observers don't see it happening in the near future. They say that while the Indian strategy to deal strictly with militants and separatists in Kashmir has partly worked out, sooner or later New Delhi will have to find a political solution to the crisis. Secession, they say, does not stand a chance. Author: Shamil Shams



Zahid Tabassum, a Kashmiri analyst, concurs with Gilani. "We are already surrounded by two nuclear states — Pakistan and India. If Pakistan annexes our region, permitting China — which is already directly or indirectly pumping money into our region — to invest here then it will prompt the US, and possibly Russia, to intervene in our land."

Tabassum said Islamabad's move to "annex our land" would be strongly resisted.

DW asked Tabassum if a concrete plan exists to integrate the territory into mainland Pakistan. He said a plan was revealed by the "highest office holder of our land — the prime minister of Azad Kashmir."

"It can't have been a slip of tongue," Tabassum said.

"Such an important statement could not have been issued by mistake. It seems the prime minister must have been told about such a plan, but he is reluctant to divulge the name of the planners."

Pakistan-administered Kashmir has retained a so-called independent status, with a president, prime minister and a legislative assembly. Critics, however, believe this autonomy is a farce because the real power lies in Islamabad and the country's powerful military. Most senior bureaucrats are non-Kashmiris sent by Islamabad who do not answer to the elected legislative body.

Read more: Kashmir: Independence activists draw inspiration from German reunification

Political division

There are concerns among Kashmiri nationalists about such an "annexation" plan, explained Khaliq Ahmed, a Kashmiri academic.

"There is resentment among the Kashmiris who do not want to be part of either Pakistan or India but believe in autonomy," Ahmed said.

"Unfortunately, Pakistan has prepared a large number of people among the Kashmiris who may be amenable to the idea of annexation, which means further division of our land. This is the biggest specter that is haunting not only the Kashmiris living in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, but the Indian part of Kashmir as well."

Pakistan's government denied it is mulling such a plan. Ishaq Khaqwani, a senior government leader, told DW that it is absolutely false.

"These are only rumors and speculation and I think India is spreading such rumors," Khaqwani said. "We cannot even think of annexing our part of Kashmir. It is a disputed territory."

Read more: Kashmir's economy suffers due to continued lockdown

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