The southwest monsoon is likely to be above normal at 105% of the long-period average (LPA), Skymet Weather Services Pvt. Ltd forecast on Monday.

The private forecaster said the monsoon is expected to arrive on time in June which would result in good rainfall over peninsular India.

Skymet said that there is 85% probability of normal-to-excess rainfall in the June-to-September monsoon season this year, with only 5% probability of a drought.

The error margin for the forecast is 4%.

After back-to-back monsoon failures, farmer distress is at a peak in India, where the majority of fields lack irrigation facilities.

India bore the brunt of the 2015-16 El Niño weather phenomenon, with a 14% rainfall deficit in the southwest monsoon last year, after which 11 states declared drought.

Monsoon rainfall will be 10% below normal in June, 5% more than normal in July, 8% more than normal in August and 15% more than normal in September, Skymet forecast.

The June-to-September monsoon season accounts for 80% of the annual rainfall.

The forecast is in line with the initial findings of other meteorologists.

Earlier this month, the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology indicated a high probability of better-than-normal rainfall in the June-September monsoon season.

Weather Risk Management Services Pvt. Ltd, a private weather forecasting and risk assessment agency, provided a long-range forecast saying the monsoon may end up on the positive side of normal.

“Overall, we expect this to be a good monsoon. Keeping in mind the last two failed monsoons, it was much needed. Sowing starts only in the second half of monsoon and rainfall predicted for July and August is promising for the crops," said G.P. Sharma, vice-president of meteorology at Skymet.

To be sure, Skymet forecast a normal monsoon last year at 102% of the LPA but monsoon rainfall as a whole over the country was 86% of the LPA.

Government forecaster India Meteorological Department is expected to issue its forecast on Tuesday amid optimism among government officials.

“The forecasts show that the El Niño condition is declining, and it is expected that La Nina conditions will take over, which will perhaps favour a good monsoon in 2016," agriculture secretary Shobhana K. Pattanayak said on Monday.

The 2015-16 El Niño, an abnormal weather phenomenon resulting from the warming of the Pacific waters near Ecuador and Peru, has been the strongest since 1997 and was cited by meteorologists as one of the primary reasons for the deficient monsoon.

The erratic weather led to consecutive crop failures and resulted in a 0.2% contraction in agriculture growth rate in 2014-15, compared with a 4.2% increase in the previous year.

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