Posted By: Stonecipher

Oct. 2, 2008

Tonight's debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden could be a do-or-die moment for John McCain's candidacy this year.

Things are not looking good for the Senator from Arizona. The Politico reports today that McCain seems to be giving up on Michigan, a state the GOP strongly believed they could take away from the Democrats in 2008. Some recent polls show Obama with a double digit lead in the Great Lakes State.

In return for apparently giving up those 17 Electoral Votes in Michigan, the McCain Campaign will refocus their efforts in Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin. But without Michigan, McCain will need all three of the other states just mentioned in order to have a chance to win in November - and he trails Obama in all three at the moment.

Even if McCain can pull off the Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin trifecta, Obama is now holding a lead in Virginia and is tied with McCain in North Carolina, two states totaling 28 Electoral Votes, that were solidly in the red column in 2004. If Obama can take those two southern states, he will completely wipe out any McCain victory in Florida (27 EVs), Ohio (20 EVs) or Wisconsin (10 EVs).

Even worse for McCain, Obama is also leading in several Western States which have traditionally been Republican strongholds, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, or 19 total Electoral Votes.

So the big picture is this: in the beginning of this race, three regions were considered in play, the Mountain West, the Rust Belt and Florida. There was talk that Obama could potentially bring some southern states into play as well, but that seemed like a long shot. As of tonight, Obama leads in all three regions that were expected to be in play plus he is shaking things up in the south. Not only does he look good in Virginia and North Carolina, but he is within striking distance in both Georgia and Mississippi, two states that went for Bush by 17% and 20% respectively in 2004.

All of this adds up to a landslide for Barack Obama. According to electoral-vote.com, one of the most reliable and up-to-date Electoral Vote maps, Obama's Electoral lead is 338 - 185 with 15 (North Carolina) in the tie column.

It is the seventh inning of this race and Obama is not only pitching a no-hitter, but he still has a shot at pitching a perfect game.

As any baseball fan knows, however, a pitcher can't throw a perfect game without the other team providing a little help - swinging at pitches out of the zone, guessing wrong on what pitch a pitcher is about to throw and just simply not making solid contact.

Right now, the McCain Campaign is wildly swinging at pitches like they were Sammy Sosa.

Many have speculated that McCain's recent drop in the polls has nothing to do with the economy and has far more to do with his selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate. And while no one expects Sarah Palin to go out there and get a hit tonight, if the McCain Campaign has any hope of coming back during the late innings of this campaign Sarah Palin better step up to the plate, choke up and suddenly morph into Tony Gwynn.

The wild-swing approach of Sosa is not going to work against a crafty veteran like Joe Biden. And if Palin goes down swinging tonight, this game is over.