Shots, goals, wins, losses. It all boils down to numbers. And if the numbers don’t lie, well, there’s good news about the Maple Leafs at the 15-game mark. The goaltending is great. The shooters, well, they may well be spectacular. Team defence? Not as bad as you might think. With the help of statistician Andrew Bailey, we break down the numbers starting with the premise that shots from 20 feet are more dangerous than shots from beyond that range. Why? Because more goals (56 per cent) are scored from in close, “the dirty areas.” All stats include last weekend’s games and shootouts:

OFFENCE

The Leafs indeed go to the dirty areas and are rewarded handsomely. Overall, 56 per cent of NHL goals this season have come from 20 feet in (682 of 1,212). The Leafs are far above that — 61 per cent (30 of 49) in that area. That means they are getting the puck in deep more often before taking a shot or pouncing on a rebound. The team as a whole is taking fewer low-percentage shots. Similarly, they have allowed only 50 per cent of their goals against (18 of 36) from less than 20 feet, more a credit to their goaltending than team defence. That, of course, means that 50 per cent of the goals against come from beyond 20 feet, above the league average of 44 per cent.

DEFENCE

Those who defend the Leafs’ approach to team defence say it’s successful because defenders collapse around the goalie, forcing opponents to take low-percentage shots from a distance. That appears to be just what’s happening. League-wide, 30 per cent of all shots on net come from 20 feet in (3,901 of 13,065). But Leaf opponents only manage to take 25 per cent of their shots on goal from in close (141 of 553). The reasons include better shot blocking, clearing of rebounds and forcing opponents to the outside. Overall, NHL teams take 70 per cent of shots (9,164 of 13,065) from beyond 20 feet. But against the Leafs, it’s 75 per cent. So those extra shots faced by James Reimer and Jonathan Bernier are more often coming from a distance.

GOALTENDING

The best news for the Leafs is in net. Of the 141 shots from in close, only 18 have gone in, a stingy 13 per cent success rate. The overall league mark is 17 per cent (682 of 3,901). Also, of the 412 shots Leaf netminders have faced from beyond 20 feet, only four per cent (18) have found the twine. The league average is six per cent (528 of 9,164).

A COACH’S TAKE

Former Leafs coach Pat Quinn isn’t overly concerned about the current club’s negative shot differential. His teams were often outshot, just not by such a wide margin. “I learned a long time ago that you look at where the shots are coming from. The number of shots at the net is less important. There are some coaches that say: ‘Throw it at the net.’ That’s their way of giving the puck up.” Added Quinn: “The team that won four straight Stanley Cups in Long Island, they didn’t care if they got outshot. They were looking for their quality of shot. They’d hold the puck until they put it in the right spot.”

LEAFS BY THE NUMBERS

League shooters inside 20 feet:

SHOTS: 3,901

GOALS: 682

PERCENTAGE: 17 per cent

Leaf shooters from inside 20 feet:

SHOTS: 124

GOALS: 30

PERCENTAGE: 24 per cent

Opposing shooters inside 20 feet:

SHOTS: 141

GOALS: 18

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PERCENTAGE: 13 per cent

League-wide, 30 per cent of shots come from inside 20 feet. The Leafs are holding the league to 25 per cent (141 of 553).

League shooters from beyond 20 feet:

SHOTS: 9,164

GOALS: 528

PERCENTAGE: Six per cent

Leaf shooters from beyond 20 feet:

SHOTS: 270

GOALS: 19

PERCENTAGE: Seven per cent

Opposing shooters from beyond 20 feet:

SHOTS: 412

GOALS: 18

PERCENTAGE: Four per cent

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