Pythagenpat estimates a team’s true talent level based on goals for and against, while a team’s Fenwick Close gives us a proxy for their ability to drive puck possession. The more shots in their favor after eliminating score effects, the more sustainable winning should be. You can find a complete explanation of the methodology by clicking here.

Here are this week’s power ratings. Agree or disagree? Let Neil know on twitter @ngreenberg.

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1. Minnesota Wild (7-3-0), Last week’s rank: 1

Adjusted Win%: 0.852

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.577

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The Wild is perfect at home (5-0-0) and is leading the league in puck possession. Ignoring special teams and lead-protecting situations, Minnesota has generated 225 shot attempts and allowed just 140, the largest differential in the league so far.

2. Pittsburgh Penguins (7-2-1), Last week’s rank: 2

Adjusted Win%: 0.641

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.552

The Penguins have won four straight, including a 5-0 shutout over the Buffalo Sabres. Sidney Crosby leads the league in points (18) and is fourth in point shares, an estimate of the number of standings points contributed by a player.

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3. Nashville Predators (7-2-2), Last week’s rank: 9

Adjusted Win%: 0.602

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.522

4. Chicago Blackhawks (6-5-1), Last week’s rank: 4

Adjusted Win%: 0.655

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.529

5. Tampa Bay Lightning (8-3-1), Last week’s rank: 8

Adjusted Win%: 0.576

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.535

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6. St. Louis Blues (6-3-1), Last week’s rank: 3

Adjusted Win%: 0.586

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.564

7. Washington Capitals (4-5-2), Last week’s rank: 5

Adjusted Win%: 0.523

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.550

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8. Anaheim Ducks (10-3-0), Last week’s rank: 6

Adjusted Win%: 0.661

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.514

9. Dallas Stars (4-3-4), Last week’s rank: 10

Adjusted Win%: 0.542

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.534

10. Detroit Red Wings (6-2-3), Last week’s rank: 12

Adjusted Win%: 0.547

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.52

11. Vancouver Canucks (8-4-0), Last week’s rank: 15

Adjusted Win%: 0.496

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.520

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12. Boston Bruins (7-6-0), Last week’s rank: 13

Adjusted Win%: 0.506

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.525

The Bruins haven’t asserted themselves in the Atlantic Division, but that hasn’t stopped the club from extending Coach Claude Julien to a multi-year contract. Keep an eye on goalie Tukka Rask, whose .902 save percentage is a career low for him. That should bounce back and with it, Boston’s performance.

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13. New York Islanders (6-5-0), Last week’s rank: 7

Adjusted Win%: 0.514

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.555

14. Toronto Maple Leafs (6-4-1), Last week’s rank: 20

Adjusted Win%: 0.445

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.492

The Leafs have won three straight, with their most recent victory coming against the Chicago Blackhawks (No. 4 in this week’s power rankings), a 3-2 win in which they kept pace with one of the better puck possession teams in the league.



15. New York Rangers (5-4-1), Last week’s rank: 17

Adjusted Win%: 0.410

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.532

16. San Jose Sharks (7-4-2), Last week’s rank: 18

Adjusted Win%: 0.562

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.476

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17. Calgary Flames (7-4-2), Last week’s rank: 21

Adjusted Win%: 0.553

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.451

18. New Jersey Devils (6-3-2), Last week’s rank: 16

Adjusted Win%: 0.498

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.509

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19. Winnipeg Jets (6-5-1), Last week’s rank: 23

Adjusted Win%: 0.363

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.501

20. Los Angeles Kings (6-4-2), Last week’s rank: 11

Adjusted Win%: 0.680

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.477

What is going on in Los Angeles? Normally one of the league’s best puck possession teams, the Kings have seen just 47.5 percent of even-strength shots in their favor when the score is within a goal and have lost three straight. It’s still early, but not the opening you would expect form the Stanley Cup champs.

21. Montreal Canadiens (8-3-1), Last week’s rank: 14

Adjusted Win%: 0.538

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.431

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22. Arizona Coyotes (4-6-1), Last week’s rank: 19

Adjusted Win%: 0.396

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.526

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23. Philadelphia Flyers (4-5-2), Last week’s rank: 22

Adjusted Win%: 0.509

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.464

24. Colorado Avalanche (3-5-5), Last week’s rank: 25

Adjusted Win%: 0.405

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.469

25. Florida Panthers (4-2-3), Last week’s rank: 27

Adjusted Win%: 0.290

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.496

26. Ottawa Senators (5-3-2), Last week’s rank: 28

Adjusted Win%: 0.533

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.413

27. Edmonton Oilers (4-6-1), Last week’s rank: 26

Adjusted Win%: 0.370

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.478

It’s true NHL teams shouldn’t be panicked by a few weeks of bad luck and/or absence of performance and trade away assets who will go on to star for other teams and haunt them forever. But the Oilers are far past that stage. This is more than just bad luck. If this were a house, you’d be calling in an exorcist.

28. Columbus Blue Jackets (4-7-0), Last week’s rank: 24

Adjusted Win%: 0.487

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.451

29. Carolina Hurricanes (2-6-2), Last week’s rank: 29

Adjusted Win%: 0.187

Adjusted ShotAttClose: 0.447