An Uphill Battle — Weekly Crypto Analysis

By — Nirmal Ranga

The four most dangerous word in investing are : “this time it’s different.” — Sir John Templeton.

Last week, the news about Google banning the crypto currency ads created a wave of fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) in market to which all major cryptocurrencies went back to test it’s important major support areas. We did discuss the fact, that the effect of the news would be temporary and we should see crypto-markets earning faith and confidence within a stipulated time.

Later in the week, the G20 summit recommendations filled some positivity in markets making the major cryptocurrencies turnaround by almost 20% or more in just a couple of days.

Now, with all major cryptocurrencies working sharply below important trading zones, it is facing an uphill-battle against the resilient resistance.

Let’s look likewise what we have in store for a trade set-up for the week:

Bitcoin

Bitcoin currently is trading at $9,017 representing an indecisive move in last 24-hours with change in price is almost zero. We mentioned in our previous analysis about BTC working below longranged descending line and should test the important support of $7,200 which is exactly what followed over the week.

BTC post testing the important support close to $7,200 gained immediate strength along the baseline and reversed about 20%+ making the market capital of the same get back to $153 Bn. The above pull-back was accurately predicted by us in our previous blog analysis.

At present, BTC is looking to trade positively above the intra-day support of $8,700 and we expect it to breach 20 DEMA ($9,100) to test next levels of resistance at $9,400 and the new downward trend line which also collides with 75/100 DEMA currently working at $10,200.

A further breach of the next level, will make BTC gain confidence to reach the most important resilient level of $12,000 which if breached as a day-close will get BTC in altogether a new Bull-Run.

For the week, we expect BTC to be inside the positive trading zone of $7,200-$12,000 where traders can approach the idea of going ‘Bulls on dips’ with intraday supports of $8,700 and $8,200.

Our analysis would be invalidated if BTC falls below the crucial level of $7,200.

DEMA — Day Exponential Moving Average

PR — Parallel Resistance, S — Support

Ethereum

ETH is trading at $575 representing a fall of about 2.7% in last 24-hours. Similar to previous week, the 2nd ranked crypto is still under heavy pressure of major resistance and will gain momentum only if the respective levels are breached with proper confirmations.

Despite a signal of reversal, a Hammer former on 18th march after making an intra-day low of $453, there is still a heavy load of selling on the upper side of current trading zone. Ether is expected to face stiff resistance on upper levels at $630 and $750. However, an important thing to realise is that ETH volumes have surged about 61% in last one week globally indicating a strength on lower levels of support.

In our previous blog, we mentioned about a important support of $480 which still stays intact where Bulls have found interest and entered according to our volume analysis below.

In long term ETH can be entered with a Bull’s approach treating $480 as major support as RSI indicating ETH in oversold areas in daily charts.

Bitcoin Cash

BCH trading close to $1050 is representing a fall of 2.5% in last 24-hours. As we observed in our last week volume analysis, we expected BCH to have a minor pull-back to the next resistant levels of $1015-$1100 which is exactly where BCH is trading right now.

BCH continues to be bearish with multiple resistance between $1050-$1160. Currently, BCH facing resistance along 20 DEMA where it is forming a phase of consolidation. Only a breach above $1,160 will get BCH a momentum to reach the next level of resistance at $1,350.

Currently, there will be trading range which is likely formed between $850-$1,160 which is likely to continue for further trading. Any breach on either sides will open up new avenues for traders.

Bulls looks to have entered around $900 in the hope to see BCH for a swing upwards, however it can be validated only if BCH maintains a day-close above $1,160.

Litecoin

Litecoin currently trading at $169 is representing a fall of 2.6% in last 24-hours.

We mentioned in our last blog, that despite the steep fall, we expect LTC to gain a lot of support and we see it reversing back from the strong ranged support of $135-$155. The above is what we saw being followed with LTC gaining about 25% from it’s lows of $137.

At present levels, LTC if facing resistance from multiple DEMA’s ranging between $180-$195 also colliding with the most important resilient resistance forming same at around $195. Overall, we still expect LTC to be the most positive among all the major cryptocurrencies and we expect it to sway through the moving averages in coming time.

Long term investors can view an upswing for a further Bull-Run, whereas traders can keep only a part of their allocations for an upswing upto $232 if the former resistance of $195 is breached. Immediate support for traders can be seen between $155-$150. Our analysis will be invalidated if LTC falls below the price of $135.

Price Analysis

Volume Analysis

Volume Distribution (Indian Exchange)

Weekly Price — Pointers

Traders should smartly use their skills and can refer to technical levels above to make optimised trade decision.

Happy Trading..!!

Market Updates

About Author — Technical/Derivatives Analyst & Crypto-Currency Expert with a decade of Professional Experience having expertise in Equities, Commodities, FOREX & Crypto-Currency Markets. Connect with him onLinkedIn and follow him on Twitter.