GDP will touch $10 trillion, he says

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Saturday said India was expected to become the third-largest economy in the world by 2030 with the gross domestic product (GDP) touching $10 trillion, helped by consumption and investment growth.

Currently, the size of the economy is about $2.9 trillion, he said, while addressing the students of the Shri Ram College of Commerce here.

“We keep oscillating between fifth and the sixth-largest economy, depending on the dollar rate. As we look at the years ahead, we would be $5 trillion by 2024 and $10 trillion by 2030 or 2031. That’s when we will be amongst the first three — the U.S., China and India and then of course, we would in the rat race of the big three wanting to catch up with much mightier competitors. So the sheer size and opportunity is going to expand,” he said.

Talking about avenues of growth for the next 20 years, the Minister listed infrastructure creation, rural expansion and gender parity, among others.

Mr. Jaitley said the 2011 Census showed that 21.9% of India’s population lived below the poverty line and with the present rate of growth, this might have further reduced to 17% today.

It should shrink to 15% by 2021 and further down to single digits by 2024-25, he said. At the same time, the middle-class population would increase to 44% from 29% in 2015, he said citing a study. “Therefore, as you look ahead you would see poverty deplete, you will see an exponential growth of middle class and probably by 2030, almost half of India would be in that category [middle class],” Mr. Jaitley said.