House GOP sounds the alarm on Q4 fundraising Presented by the United States Postal Service

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Quick Fix

— House Republicans are bracing for a disappointing fourth quarter ahead of the Jan. 31 FEC deadline, as Frontline Democrats start the election year with a massive cash advantage.


— The Supreme Court rejected Democrats’ ask to fast-track a legal challenge to Obamacare, meaning the case likely won’t be resolved until after the election.

— Top House progressives and the DCCC have come to a ceasefire over a party committee policy to blacklist consultants who work for primary challengers to incumbents. Members agreed to pay their dues to the committee, but the policy isn’t going away.

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks to Ally for writing today’s Topline on what the Q4 FEC filings will tell us about the battle for the House. She would like me to make a plug to all Score readers: Add her to your press lists ahead of the filing deadline! Her email is [email protected], and you can follow her at @allymutnick. Email me at [email protected], and follow me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the rest of the Campaign Pro team at [email protected] and [email protected]. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve and @JamesArkin.

Days until the Iowa caucuses: 12

Days until the New Hampshire primary: 20

Days until the Nevada caucuses: 31

Days until the South Carolina primary: 38

Days until the 2020 election: 286

TopLine

THE CASH DASH — With less than 10 days to go until the Q4 filing deadline, House Republicans appear to be preparing for some bleak news. NRCC Chairman Tom Emmer sounded the alarm last week while speaking at a Ripon Society breakfast. “I will put up a red flag,” Emmer said in the speech. “Our members need to get their act together and raise more money. The individual campaigns need to raise more money. They cannot expect somebody else is going to do it for them. And they’re going to hear that from me when we come back after the break, and we see all the final numbers.”

The vast majority of Republican candidates have yet to release their fourth-quarter fundraising, but those who have are reporting totals far below that of House Democratic incumbents. In NY-11, Republican state Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis raised $306,000, while Democratic Rep. Max Rose brought in $1.2 million — and he started 2020 with over three times more in the bank. In SC-01, state Rep. Nancy Mace raised $373,000 to Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham’s $900,000 — and Mace will have to spend some of that in a primary. While it’s true that that incumbents typically raise more than challengers, Republicans privately admit Democrats’ financial advantage in some key seats could soon become insurmountable.

So far, a whopping nine Frontliners have announced 2020 warchests of over $2 million. That’s a staggering sum, particularly because some of them, like Rep. Antonio Delgado in NY-19, have yet to attract a serious challenger. This class is shaping up to be unprecedentedly well-funded. At the end of the last off-year, not a single one of the 30 GOP incumbents who were ousted in the midterms had more than $2 million in the bank. (Though then-Reps. Bruce Poliquin of Maine and Jeff Denham of California had $1.9 million and lost anyway.)

The biggest problem for Republicans is that they’re struggling to adjust to a new normal. A $400,000 quarter used to be impressive, but it’s not anymore, when the Democratic incumbent is pulling in $1 million. They also can’t expect much help from the party committee. Emmer openly bemoaned the fact that the DCCC outraised the NRCC by $40 million in 2019, bringing in $125 million to the NRCC’s $85 million. That’s a huge gap. In the 2017 off-year, the DCCC bested the NRCC by $20 million.

Presidential Big Board

IN THE COURTS — The Supreme Court won’t fasttrack a legal challenge to the Affordable Care Act, scuttling an ask from blue states and the House of Representatives to resolve a challenge to the law before the 2020 elections. Democrats “had pressed the high court to intervene after a federal appeals court last month refused to rule on the law’s constitutionality and sent the case back to a federal judge in Texas who had earlier issued a ruling knocking out the entire law,” POLITICO’s Susannah Luthi reported. “The outcome means [President Donald] Trump will face less pressure to articulate an Obamacare replacement plan during the campaign. … [But t]he lawsuit's lingering threat to Obamacare exposes Trump to attacks that he is still trying to gut the law's popular protections for people with preexisting conditions.”

2016 FOREVER — Hillary Clinton swatted at her 2016 primary rival, Bernie Sanders, saying in a new documentary that “nobody likes him, nobody wants to work with him” in the Senate and then declining to say in an interview with The Hollywood Reporter’s Lacey Rose that she would endorse or campaign for him, should he win the nomination. Clinton was critical of “the culture around him,” citing his leadership team, surrogates and online supporters.

Sanders refused to take the bait publicly. His campaign released a statement saying “my focus today is on a monumental moment in American history: the impeachment trial of Donald Trump,” and, when pressed about it on the Hill, said she is “entitled to her point of view” but highlighted his popularity in polling. Later, on cleanup duty, Clinton tweeted she will “do whatever I can to support our nominee.”

Privately, Sanders’ campaign also urged restraint, hoping to move past the comments. “Sanders’ campaign told staffers internally to not discuss Clinton’s comments,” POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein wrote. “His aides are also urging his online fans to volunteer for him instead of tweeting about Clinton.”

THE I WORD — Joe Biden is trying to steer clear of the impeachment trial, but he can only avoid it so much. “Even as four of Joe Biden’s presidential campaign rivals were pulled off the campaign trail this week to sit as silent jurors in Washington, he’s hardly got an advantage,” POLITICO’s Marc Caputo. “While he largely has the Iowa stage to himself this week, the former vice president is playing a starring role in the impeachment saga along with his son, Hunter.”

ON THE AIRWAVES — We have a new regular feature for Pro subscribers: a roundup of all the presidential TV ad spending. In news that probably won’t surprise you, Mike Bloomberg easily spent the most from Jan. 14-20, dropping $28.6 million. Pros can read more from my colleague Maya King. Bloomberg also has a new television ad, calling for the impeachment of Trump. The campaign says the ad is airing in 27 states.

Bloomberg’s massive, unprecedented spending is also continuing online. His team spent over $5.5 million on ads on Facebook from Jan. 13-19. Pros can read more in my weekly tracker.

— Elizabeth Warren’s campaign is up with a new ad in Iowa, saying Trump “fears” her the most out of any candidate in the race. A second Iowa ad from Warren highlights her fundraising policy: “You won't find me behind closed doors sucking up to rich donors,” she says in the ad.

— A new ad from Unite the Country, the pro-Biden super PAC, is up in Iowa saying Biden is “the Democrat who can lead through the storm.”

POLLS POLLS POLLS — A new poll out of New Hampshire shows — surprise, surprise — a tight race. In a Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll, Sanders is at 16 percent, Biden is at 15 percent, Pete Buttigieg is at 12 percent and Warren is at 10 percent. Andrew Yang is at 6 percent and Tulsi Gabbard and Amy Klobuchar are each at 5 percent, the last candidates above that mark (500 likely Democratic primary voters; Jan. 15-19; +/- 4.4 percentage point MOE).

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Biden picked up the endorsement of four black lawmakers, POLITICO’s Nolan McCaskill reported first. Reps. Frederica Wilson (D-Fla.), Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.), Donald Payne (D-N.J.) and Sanford Bishop (D-Ga.) also backed him Tuesday. Wilson and Hastings previously endorsed Kamala Harris, while Payne previously supported Cory Booker.

— Rep. Bobby Rush (D-Ill.) has endorsed Bloomberg. He previously backed Harris’ bid.

STAFFING UP — Warren’s campaign hired two senior officials from Julián Castro’s former presidential campaign: campaign manager Maya Rupert as a senior adviser and surrogate and political director Natalie Montelongo as a senior strategist, per POLITICO’s Alex Thompson.

— We’re also sending out our next staff tracker real soon, so please email me with your latest campaign hires.

Down the Ballot

PRIMARY PROBLEMS — Top House progressives are trying to thaw the feud with the DCCC over the controversial blacklist policy. “Some of the House’s most influential progressives, including Reps. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) and Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), said they will contribute tens of thousands of dollars to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, despite a contentious new rule that blacklists campaign consultants who work for candidates taking on sitting Democratic members,” Ally, Sarah Ferris and Heather Caygle reported.

More: “Jayapal, who worked with Pocan behind the scenes for months to protest the DCCC’s policy, said she realizes the so-called ‘blacklist’ rule won’t change this cycle but wants to keep a line of communication open with the committee.”

THE HOUSE MAP — Republican Larry Casha, an attorney and member of the Republican State Committee, dropped his bid to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill, clearing the field for Rosemary Becchi, who is switching from running in NJ-07 to challenging Sherrill instead, POLITICO New Jersey’s Matt Friedman reported for Pros.

— Democrat Matt Rains ended his bid for the open MT-AL seat, backing 2018 nominee Kathleen Williams instead, per the Great Falls Tribune’s Phil Drake. (Relatedly: I thought Rains had one of the best campaign logos this cycle.)

— Bucks County Prothonotary Judi Reiss, a Democrat, ended her bid to challenge GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in PA-01, per the Bucks County Courier Times’ Anthony DiMattia.

— Republican Ben Bullock, an Air Force veteran, dropped his bid in the open-seat, competitive GA-07 to run in the primary in the open-seat, red GA-14 per The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein.

ON THE AIRWAVES — America First Policies, a nonprofit tied to team Trump, launched a $450,000 buy pushing Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) on impeachment, Campaign Pro’s James Arkin reported. The ad says impeachment is a “shameful witch hunt” while cycling through pictures of prominent Democrats. The group said it’ll spent a total of $1 million across three states on an ad campaign.

— Democrat Cal Cunningham, who is running to challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), is up with his ad in the primary. The ad is a biographical spot, with Cunningham talking about his military service. The campaign is backing the ad on TV and digital with a “seven-figure” buy. James has more for Pros.

— Republican Jason Church, who is running in the special election in WI-07, released a television ad decrying impeachment. “They don’t just disrespect our president. They disrespect us. We cannot let them win,” he says in the ad while skeet shooting. With Honor Fund, a group that endorses both Democrats and Republicans, released an ad highlighting his military service, saying he is “the Trump conservative we need in Congress.” Advertising Analytics tracks $117,000 worth of airtime booked by the group, starting on Tuesday and running through Feb. 2.

THE CASH DASH — More hauls keep trickling in.

— CA-22: Republican Rep. Devin Nunes raised a whopping $2.1 million in the quarter and will report $7.2 million on hand, per the Washington Examiner’s David Drucker.

— FL-18: GOP Rep. Brian Mast raised $764,000 in the quarter and will report more than $1.2 million on hand, per his FEC filing.

— NJ-03: Former Burlington County Freeholder Kate Gibbs, a Republican, raised just under $143,000 from Sept. 16 to Dec. 31, per her FEC filing. She has $138,000 in cash on hand. (Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski will start 2020 with $2 million in the bank.)

— PA-10: Democrat Eugene DePasquale raised $300,000 and will report nearly $500,000 on hand for his run against GOP Rep. Scott Perry, per the Pennsylvania Capital-Star’s John Micek.

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Planned Parenthood Action Fund endorsed three Democrats running for Senate, including backing Maine’s Sara Gideon, who is challenging GOP Sen. Susan Collins. Planned Parenthood had as recently as three years ago praised Collins, and endorsed her back in 2002, Pro Health Care’s Alice Miranda Ollstein wrote for Pros. The group also backed Jaime Harrison in South Carolina and Barbara Bollier in Kansas.

WAY DOWN THE BALLOT — The National Democratic Redistricting PAC, an NDRC affiliate, gave another $25,000 to Texas Democrat Eliz Markowitz, who is running in the Jan. 28 special election for a Houston-area state House seat. That brings the group’s total investment to $50,000. Warren also endorsed Markowitz, per The Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek.

The Republican State Leadership Committee announced it was backing Republican Gary Gates in the race. A spokesperson for the RSLC said it will be “investing resources and helping with GOTV” but didn’t respond to a followup asking for a dollar amount.

STAFFING UP — Helen Kalla is the DSCC’s director of rapid response. She was previously the Nevada communications director for Harris’ presidential campaign.

— Paige Lindgren is now deputy press secretary at the NRSC. She was previously press assistant for Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.).

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “You have to be impartial when it comes to candy in particular.” Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), recalling his role in keeping the Senate candy desk well stocked during the Bill Clinton impeachment trial, per The Morning Call.

Follow us on Twitter Steven Shepard @politico_steve



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Ally Mutnick @allymutnick