HGC 2018, Phase 1, Week 3

North America:

Europe:

Map Picks

Map Pick Priority

Map Ban Priority

Hero Picks

Hero Priority by Region

Less Used Heroes

New Hero Performance

Head-to-Head and Duo-Queue Performance

Team/Match Analysis

Method - ScHwimpi Was (Not) The Problem

Fnatic - Finally Looking Like the Fnatic of Old

Gale Force Esports and HeroesHearth Esports - Fighting for Fourth (And Maybe Third?)

Final Thoughts and Games to Watch Next Week

Hello there! I'm CriticKitten. You may know me from my previous segments, 7 Days Later, in which I keep track of how heroes are performing after recent balance patches. Here is a link to my most recent edition of that series. I've also been responsible for writing a segment entitled "Fixing the Meta", in which I discuss possible adjustments to the game to create a more appealing meta. Here is a link to my most recent edition of that series. I am currently hard at work on new articles for both of these segments, so please look forward to those in the future.But today, we're here to talk about the HGC! This is my new running series discussing the stats from the HGC each week. And of course, being the stats nerd that I am, I'm going to cover these matches in waaaaaay too much depth, and possibly drive myself crazy, all for your benefit and enjoyment! So....enjoy!Big shoutout to /u/Borania for providing the stats for HGC Korea!Be warned that there are spoilers in this post, so if you have not watched this week's HGC matches and wish to do so without being spoiled about the results,! Also, keep in mind that these are in-depth posts meant to cover a variety of statistics with tables and graphs. As such, they tend to be very long posts. Just giving fair warning!Each week in the HGC, teams from each region face off against other teams from their region. Each match is a Best-of-5 series, and there are six matches played per week in each region. The matches (and results) for the HGC this week were....vs LFM Esports (3-0)vs Spacestation Gaming (3-0)vs Gale Force Esports (3-1)vs Simplicity (3-0)Spacestation Gaming vs(1-3)vs Team Twelve (3-1)vs Leftovers (3-0)Tricked Esport vs(1-3)vs Tricked Esport (3-0)vs Zealots (3-0)Team Liquid vs(0-3)Diamond Skin vs(1-3)The current standings for the league can be found on the HGC site at this location Below is my analysis of this week's HGC action. If you're having trouble reading any table in this article, you can see the table in full-size by clicking on it. Keep in mind that this analysis does not cover every single match directly, nor every single little detail, as that would be an exhaustive list of data that would take literal days to compile. While I always try to discuss all matches, I will focus this analysis primarily on details that I felt were interesting or relevant for this week. You are welcome to request any information that I do not provide in this analysis in the comments below, or on Reddit. I'm happy to share what I have!Below is a list of the pick/win rates of each map this week, as well as by region.1) Infernal Shrines (16.9% of all games)Tied 2) Dragon Shire (15.49% of all games)Tied 2) Towers of Doom (15.49% of all games)4) Tomb of the Spider Queen (14.08% of all games)5) Sky Temple (12.68% of all games)1) Infernal Shrines (20.31% of all games)2) Tomb of the Spider Queen (18.75% of all games)3) Battlefield of Eternity (15.63% of all games)4) Dragon Shire (14.06% of all games)5) Towers of Doom (12.50% of all games)1) Sky Temple (20.31% of all games)Tied 2) Battlefield of Eternity (15.63% of all games)Tied 2) Cursed Hollow (15.63% of all games)Tied 4) Dragon Shire (14.06% of all games)Tied 4) Infernal Shrines (14.06% of all games)NA saw an increase in Towers of Doom, whereas Sky Temple dropped a bit from last week. EU still likes Infernal Shrines and Tomb of the Spider Queen the most. Dragon Shire climbed onto the list with more play time this week, dropping Sky Temple off the top 5 list. In Korea, Cursed Hollow saw a very slight drop in pick rate, and maps like Infernal Shrines saw very slight increases. All three regions continue to spread their exposure pretty evenly across all maps, with the exceptions of Braxis Holdout (which nobody seems to be willing to play) and Volskaya Foundry (which has barely been played).1) Braxis Holdout (banned 61.11% of the time)2) Volskaya Foundry (banned 38.89% of the time)3) Battlefield of Eternity (banned 33.33% of the time)4) Cursed Hollow (banned 22.22% of the time)Tied 5) Infernal Shrines (banned 16.67% of the time)Tied 5) Towers of Doom (banned 16.67% of the time)1) Braxis Holdout (banned 55.56% of the time)2) Cursed Hollow (banned 44.44% of the time)3) Volskaya Foundry (banned 38.89% of the time)4) Dragon Shire (banned 27.78% of the time)Tied 5) Infernal Shrines (banned 11.11% of the time)Tied 5) Tomb of the Spider Queen (banned 11.11% of the time)1) Braxis Holdout (banned 77.78% of the time)2) Volskaya Foundry (banned 38.89% of the time)Tied 3) Battlefield of Eternity (banned 22.22% of the time)Tied 3) Tomb of the Spider Queen (banned 22.22% of the time)Tied 5) Cursed Hollow (banned 16.67% of the time)Tied 5) Towers of Doom (banned 16.67% of the time)As before, all regions continue to ban out Braxis Holdout, to the point where it's extremely unlikely we're going to see this map much (if ever) in international events, outside of perhaps a select few pocket strategies. NA saw the rise of Infernal Shrines as a top 5 ban, though most of the rest is the same as previous weeks. EU dropped Sky Temple bans a bit in exchange for more bans on Infernal Shrines and Tomb of the Spider Queen. Korea continues to prioritize Volskaya as a ban, though this week saw less Volskaya bans than last week in exchange for more Tomb of the Spider Queen and Cursed Hollow bans.1) Greymane (97.99% popularity rate, 45.39% win rate)2) Genji (95.98% popularity rate, 37.93% win rate)3) Hanzo (92.96% popularity rate, 61.11% win rate)4) Uther (67.34% popularity rate, 57.94% win rate)5) E.T.C. (65.33% popularity rate, 57.5% win rate)6) Anub'arak (55.28% popularity rate, 53.01% win rate)7) Abathur (55.28% popularity rate, 52.94% win rate)8) Malthael (52.26% popularity rate, 57.89% win rate)9) Tyrael (50.75% popularity rate, 53.42% win rate)10) Dehaka (50.25% popularity rate, 51.22% win rate)As was the case last week, the top three remains dominated by Genji, Greymane, and Hanzo. However, this week saw slight drops in all three of their popularity rates, as some teams opted not to draft these heroes. Genji's win rate is at its worst level so far this year, which may explain a bit of why the hero is seeing less picks than usual. Hanzo and Greymane are both seeing upcoming nerfs, as well, so it's possible something is going to give when the newest patch hits. We'll have to keep an eye out for that. In the meantime, Lucio has dropped off the list due to the meteoric rise of Tyrael, thanks to his new rework. Surprisingly, his win rate wasn't actually that dominant in this week's games specifically, at 50% for the week's games. Nonetheless, he has reached a point where he's now a top priority pick.1) Greymane (98.59% popularity rate, 37.74% win rate)2) Genji (97.18% popularity rate, 36.36% win rate)3) Hanzo (92.96% popularity rate, 61.7% win rate)4) E.T.C. (85.92% popularity rate, 65.79% win rate)5) Lucio (77.46% popularity rate, 60.61% win rate)6) Malthael (74.65% popularity rate, 70% win rate)7) Dehaka (52.11% popularity rate, 50% win rate)8) Uther (50.7% popularity rate, 43.33% win rate)9) Tyrael (47.89% popularity rate, 57.14% win rate)10) Tassadar (45.07% popularity rate, 60% win rate)1) Greymane (95.31% popularity rate, 54.35% win rate)2) Genji (90.63% popularity rate, 27.27% win rate)3) Hanzo (87.5% popularity rate, 50% win rate)4) Abathur (71.88% popularity rate, 100% win rate)5) Uther (68.75% popularity rate, 64.52% win rate)6) Malfurion (68.75% popularity rate, 52.63% win rate)7) Arthas (60.94% popularity rate, 55.17% win rate)8) Gul'dan (57.81% popularity rate, 53.85% win rate)9) Anub'arak (56.25% popularity rate, 53.85% win rate)10) Rehgar (56.25% popularity rate, 31.43% win rate)1) Greymane (100% popularity rate, 45.28% win rate)2) Genji (100% popularity rate, 44% win rate)3) Hanzo (98.44% popularity rate, 77.42% win rate)4) Uther (84.34% popularity rate, 63.04% win rate)5) Anub'arak (81.25% popularity rate, 64.86% win rate)6) Rehgar (73.44% popularity rate, 44.44% win rate)7) Sonya (57.81% popularity rate, 43.33% win rate)8) E.T.C. (56.25% popularity rate, 47.62% win rate)9) Tyrael (54.69% popularity rate, 54.17% win rate)10) Abathur (53.13% popularity rate, 33.33% win rate)NA saw Tychus drop off of the top 10 as Tyrael rose in the ranks. Interestingly, NA has the worst regional record for Uther in terms of win rate, seeming to fare better with Lucio. EU saw the revival of Rehgar as a support, though his win rate remains as low as it was in week 1 of the HGC as Uther and Malfurion remain the more succesful healers in that region. Anub'arak also reached the top 10 this week, dropping E.T.C. and Muradin from the bottom of the list (they now sit at 51.56% each, placing them 13th and 14th respectively). Korea's list is now sans Tychus (who has dropped to 50% popularity, or 11th highest), as Tyrael has taken his place on the top 10. They also saw a pretty significant drop in the popularity of Sonya (from 90%) and Abathur (from 65%). It is relatively understandable that Sonya would start to drop off as the number of stun heroes climbs, with Anub'arak and Uther maintaining a high popularity and E.T.C. now climbing the ladder as well.Ana, Artanis, Samuro, Sylvanas, The Lost Vikings, Thrall, Xul, ZaryaAzmodan, Chen, Cho'Gall, Kel'Thuzad, Nazeebo, Nova, Sgt Hammer, ZagaraAlarak, Gazlowe, Li Li, Lt. Morales, Murky, Probius, Raynor, Rexxar, The Butcher, Tyrande, Valeera, Varian, Zul'jinWith each new week, we add a few more heroes to the list, it seems. We're now up to 63 unique heroes being used in the Nexus (55 NA, 50 EU, 49 KR), with 10 heroes on the "one-and-done" list and 7 being picked at an average of 1 game or less per week. This means that roughly 47 heroes (40 NA, 33 EU, 37 KR) have been played more than 1 per week on average, or about 61.8% of the total roster. This is a drop from last week's 63.2% regularity, meaning that in general, teams seemed to stick mostly to comfort picks. NA and EU maintained a fairly solid "core" of heroes that they prefer, whereas KR's list has actually grown from last week's.Alexstrazsa (7.04% popularity rate, 38.46% win rate)Hanzo (92.96% popularity rate, 61.11% win rate)Blaze (20.6% popularity rate, 51.35% win rate)Hanzo remains a top pick, which may or may not change in week 5 when further nerfs hit. However, he saw a slight downtick in win rate and popularity vs last week, indicating that some teams might already be making adjustments for the future. Alexstrazsa's win rate has gone up, but she's no more popular than before. Blaze's popularity has spiked tremendously as more teams now seem comfortable with playing him. He has the most popularity in EU at a 31.25% popularity rate in EU games, but all regions are now playing him to some degree.By recommendation from /u/Alathya and /u/Pscagoyf , I've made further improvements to my sheet, and can now provide analytical comparisons of what heroes are performing well against heroes, as well as which heroes work together well with each other!Today, I'd like to discuss Blaze, the newest Nexus addition who has seen increasing selection in the HGC. With his popularity on the rise, what can you do against that kind of heat? Let's take a look at some heroes who are the most common meta picks right now, and see how they're doing against Blaze.As you can see, Blaze is doing pretty respectably against most of the popular assassins. He is dealing well with Greymane and Genji, two of the most popular choices, as well as Tychus (one of the most logical choices against him). However, he seems to be struggling against Hanzo, who can chip away at his armor, as well as Malthael, whose percentile damage ignores armor. While he seems to be performing well against warriors like Dehaka or E.T.C., he is struggling against Anub'arak and the new Tyrael. In terms of healers, his success rate against most is fairly high, with the sole exception of Malfurion, who does a fairly respectable job of mitigating his ability to dive and whose heal-over-time effects match up favorably to Blaze's AoE damage-over-time effects.Now let's look at combos: which heroes seem to pair up well with Blaze?Among the most popular assassins, Blaze has seen no luck with Genji and limited success with Greymane. His best win rate is actually with Hanzo, where he has experienced a lot of success landing his E alongside Dragon Arrow for some stunlock power. When running as the off-tank, he experiences the most success alongside the new Tyrael, who can further enable him to dive and output some solid damage. Malfurion and Uther both appear to be relatively successful pairings with Blaze, as Malfurion's new rework provides plenty of passive healing whereas Uther gives Blaze even more armor to work with.Let's look at the play by each team this week. We won't be covering all of the teams, of course, as that would make an already long post even longer. Rather, we'll be looking at just a few teams and matches who I felt deserved the extra analysis and attention. Also, remember that I've limited my coverage to NA/EU, since I have not been able to watch the KR games for myself. As such, do not expect any analysis of Korea's current standings.Method came into this week with a 1-2 record looking somewhat shaky up to this point. And after a tough-fought 3-0 against Zealots that was much closer than the score seemed, there were serious concerns that this team wasn't going to live up to the legacy of last year's Team Expert. But Method came out to play against a strong-looking 3-1 (now 3-2) Team Liquid, crushing them in a 3-0 series that ended with an 8-minute match on Cursed Hollow.ScHwimpi was the big star of this weekend's play, bringing out a variety of heroes that allowed him to go full ham, including Tracer, EU's first Kerrigan, and Illidan. Here's a graph of the heroes he's played so far. Suffice it to say, he's really showing off his diverse hero roster this season, and proving that he's still a top playmaker!Method's next game is against Leftovers, a team still trying to earn its first map win. This might give Method a chance to do some more experimenting in preparation for future opponents.Fnatic, formerly at 2-1, was starting to look like it wasn't going to live up to the expectations of its namesake. Yet this week, it seems they have finally gotten things together. With a 3-0 against Tricked Esport and a 3-1 against Diamond Skin, they now sit comfortably at 2nd place in the EU. Fnatic played some aggressive games that made them look much different than the team we've seen up to now, and while the occasional moments of weakness would still pop up every once in a while, it's clear they've made some improvements! This week's matches saw the unleashing of Mene on Kael'thas, with him playinggames on the hero in this weekend alone! Here's what his hero pool looks like now.Fnatic couldn't have peaked at a better time, too....they face Team Dignitas next week, and Dignitas looks like it's in no mood to give up a single map all season!Gale Force Esports and HeroesHearth are both teams that were likely feeling a bit disappointed in their standing prior to this week. With high expectations, both of these teams have found themselves facing tough teams early on, and they were struggling to emerge as top teams. But this week, we got glimpses of the teams they could be. GFE took a 3-0 against Spacestation Gaming, but only took a game off of Team Twelve. HeroesHearth, on the other hand, played like a team possessed and pulled off the win against Team Twelve, 3-1. And now, GFE sits at 2-3 and HHE at 2-2, both teams poised to potentially contend for the fourth place spot. Or....perhaps even third? Team Twelve still has to play Team Freedom, after all, and both GFE and HHE have a bit of an easier road beyond this point (although Tempo faces GFE in Week 5, so we'll see). Things could really change in the coming weeks. But one thing is certain: if these two teams keep playing at their present levels, one of them will very likely be punching their ticket to the Clash!On the GFE side of things, Michael Udall continues to put up strong performances on Kerrigan, holding a 75% win rate on the hero across 4 games. Here's his current hero pool to date.On the side of HeroesHearth, here's a fun statistic: Khroen's one-trick Hanzo is working out well for their team, as HHE is undefeated when Khroen gets Hanzo. In 6 games, he's not lost a single one. Here's what his hero pool looks like right now.However, this also presents a potential weakness that other teams might try to exploit, as it lopsides the draft heavily in favor of Khroen as the first hero pick due to Hanzo's status as a priority pick. And with more nerfs on the horizon for Hanzo, will Khroen be able to keep up his undefeated streak? We'll have to see if future opponents try to deny the Hanzo from HHE, or if they'll let the nerfs push HHE into a different draft strategy.HeroesHearth Esports and Gale Force Esports face each other next week, so we'll soon get to see which of them is the superior team. The winner is very likely to reach the Clash, so it's a huge match for both teams!All of this year's teams in Europe and North America are fighting their hardest to earn a spot among the top. While we have an early glimpse at who might be the best, there's no way of knowing what sort of chaos might shake up the roster in the weeks to come. Here are some games that I think you ought to pay attention to for next week!(Friday, 2/9 @ 2 PM EST)(Saturday, 2/10 @ 12 PM EST)The big rematch! Dignitas has looked unstoppable up to this point, crushing all opposition....but this week's Fnatic looked a lot more like the Fnatic of old, and Liquid is looking to break into the top. These matches will be HUGE in deciding the final standings for the Western Clash!(Friday, 2/9 @ 5 PM EST)(Sunday, 2/11 @ 5 PM EST)(Sunday, 2/11 @ 7 PM EST)HeroesHearth and Simplicity both need two wins to increase their chances of overtaking Gale Force, whereas Gale Force merely needs to defend their spot. These matches will very likely decide which team is able to creep into the Western Clash!Whew! Like I said, lots of data to go through, but this is my take on this week's action. That's all for this week. Please feel free to leave your comments on this week's HGC matches below, or on Reddit. I would also love to hear your feedback on this article and whether or not there are any aspects of the article that you'd like to see improvement on. I'd love to hear your feedback!