Econometer scorecard -Sept. 20, 2015 Syrian refugees crisis an economic boon? Yes No Marney Cox, San Diego Association of Governments x Phil Blair, Manpower x Kelly Cunningham, National University System x Gina Champion-Cain, American International Investments x Alan Gin, University of San Diego x James Hamilton, UC San Diego x Jamie Moraga, intelliSolutions x Gary London, London Group of Realty Advisors x Gail Naughton, Histogen x Austin Neudecker, Rev x Norm Miller, University of San Diego x Bob Rauch, R.A. Rauch & Associates x Lynn Reaser, Point Loma Nazarene University x John Sarkisian, Pro Performance Sports x Dan Seiver, Reilly Financial Advisors x Chris Van Gorder, Scripps Health x Total 12 4

Q: Do the arrival of Syrian refugees in Europe and possibly the U.S. offer an economic upside to the host countries and communities?

Marney Cox, San Diego Association of Governments

Marney Cox

Answer: YES

Today’s refugees do not have a choice like migrants; they are fleeing war-torn countries, experienced unthinkable horrors and are unable to return home. The U.S. has experience, resettling 2 million Indochinese 40 years ago and the most of any country today. But accepting refugees alone is not the answer. You need people with certain skills going to economies where those skills are useful and in short supply, and then there is absolutely a positive impact.

Do the arrival of Syrian refugees in Europe and possibly the U.S. offer an economic upside to the host countries and communities? Yes 25% (14) No 75% (42) 56 total votes.

Phil Blair, Manpower

Phil Blair

Answer: YES

If a country has an aging workforce that is threatening its ability to maintain its economic growth, then it clearly needs the infusion of young and middle aged workers. Germany is an example. If a country currently has high unemployment within an untrained and uneducated workforce, they certainly will be adding strain to the current dilemma. If the refugees are highly trained and educated and can quickly adapt these skills to a new country, they will be an asset anywhere they reside.

Kelly Cunningham, National University System

Kelly Cunningham

Answer: YES

The crisis demands assistance and relief on a humanitarian scale with no other solutions immediately apparent. Some positive economic impacts may eventually result, assuming effective and efficient screening filters out criminals and jihadists. Sending money to Middle Eastern countries to take in the Muslim refugees would make more sense than the West entirely absorbing them. Positive economic effects may evolve over the longer term so long as refugees assimilate and enmesh western values, culture and traditions.

Gina Champion-Cain, American National Investments

Gina Champion-Cain

Answer: YES

But only in very narrow circumstances. Well educated refugees can offer positive impact to any country. In a broader sense countries with aging work-force demographics, poor birth rates and limited immigration are prime candidates to absorb refugees and derive economic benefit from their presence. Countries such as Germany and Japan fit into this category. They are or will shortly be starved for productive labor. Matching refugees to specific economies is a difficult endeavor.

Alan Gin, University of San Diego

Alan Gin

Answer: YES

The benefit is likely to be greater for Europe than for the United States. That is because population is growing much slower in Europe. In some countries, population is actually projected to decline. The influx of refugees could help alleviate labor shortages. The benefit is less for the U.S. as it already allows a significant amount of immigration, which helps boost population growth. To the extent that the refugees use public services, the net gain would be low and possibly even negative.

James Hamilton, University of California San Diego

James Hamilton

Answer: NO

This is a tragedy for everyone involved. Thousands of people have died trying to get away from Syria, and who can blame them? The monstrosities of ISIS make the most outrageous villains of movies or comic books look like Boy Scouts. Rather than help people run from this evil, America needs to help them fight and destroy it.



Jamie Moraga, intelliSolutions

Jamie Moraga

Answer: NO

It’s never cut and dry with a socioeconomic issue. Above all we have a humanitarian crisis. Economically, they could strain host countries and communities through their need of public resources -- housing, jobs, education -- national security, and public health. Some countries are utilizing foreign aid but that’s short term - this will leave the countries and its citizens taking the economic brunt. If the refugees can assimilate and rebuild their lives to become productive members of their new home countries, then they could end up contributing economically in the long term.

Gary London, The London Group Realty Advisors

Gary London

Answer: YES

The majority of the refugees are young, and will enter a European workface – once an initial investment is made in their stability and education – that has been rapidly aging and not replenishing. Germany, in particular, has already deduced this economic upside to the refugee crisis. As to the U.S., a nation of immigrants, newcomers have historically been a strong reason for our competitive advantage, both in their ability to fill jobs and contribute to economic growth, as well as in their drive for a better life. Nations, and their politicians, who turn their a deaf ear to the various global refugee crises might be better served by considering the economic upside.

Gail Naughton, Histogen

Gail Naughton

Answer: YES

Several reports have shown that developed countries with sufficient employment opportunities could reap economic benefits, with up to a tenfold return on investment, by allowing an influx of Syrian refugees. In addition, countries are seeing an entrepreneurial culture and a greater percentage of successful new businesses started by refugees as compared to their native counterparts. To reap the ultimate economic benefits, there must be adequate financial and service resources to help new immigrants get established.



Norm Miller, University of San Diego

Norm Miller

Answer: YES

In the short term, this will be simply a humanitarian aid cost with a kindness dividend that is not economic in nature. Some locals will resent and fear immigrants as likely to bring wages down by undercuttng workers with lower fees and wages required for work, but in the longer term, with assimilation, many refugees will use handcraft skills, web developer and tech skills to contribute to the economy. Others will gain new skills and help fill in the shortage of younger workers in the more developed EU economies.



Austin Neudecker, Rev

Austin Neudecker

Answer: YES

There is always an upside from an influx of new citizens: They bring professional and trade skills, additional consumption and, vitally, a keen desire to build a better life for themselves and their families. Undoubtedly, there are also costs to our system. The balance is not yet well understood and merits more analysis. Regardless, helping rescue fellow, innocent humans from life-threatening situations is a moral obligation we must not shirk.

Bob Rauch, R.A. Rauch and Associates

Bob Rauch

Answer: NO

Refugees start at a disadvantage and tend to have lower employment rates and are often in lower level jobs than their skills and qualifications might predict. They likely would not have chosen to migrate and often start with the disadvantage of having been traumatized. They have been "pushed" rather than "pulled" and the host country labor market might not be a good match for them. Plus, they must be vetted for any terrorism background.

Lynn Reaser, Point Loma Nazarene University

Lynn Reaser

Answer: YES

Many refugees are middle-class individuals, possessing education, skills, and incomes that will benefit the host country. These people will inject money into the economy as they find housing and purchase various goods and services. Many of them will start new businesses while others will work as highly motivated employees. These individuals will particularly help countries such as Germany to postpone a future labor force decline and to better deal with an aging population.

John Sarkisian, SKLZ

John Sarkisian, Pro Performance Sports

Answer: NO

Humanitarian efforts most likely do not have a direct economic benefit to host countries. In fact in the short run they have an economic cost. However, immigrants assimilating into our society has made the United States what it is today. “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breath free.”

Dan Seiver, Reilly Financial Advisors

Dan Seiver

Answer: YES

Although it will be small, especially compared to the humanitarian dimension. Many of the refugees have the skills and determination to make their lives better in their host countries. We are a nation of immigrants, and sometimes we need to remind ourselves "Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me."

Chris Van Gorder, Scripps Health

Chris Van Gorder

Answer: YES

In the short term, it will be an economic burden to provide refugees with housing, food and health care. However, progressive leaders who also provide training and education will benefit in the longer term from an expanded pool of skilled, taxpaying workers. This is a particularly beneficial to countries with low unemployment and an aging workforce, such as Germany. Additionally, businesses will reap the rewards of the increased demand for their goods and services as a result of a growing population.