In 1995, a robber named McArthur Wheeler tried robbing a bank without a mask, or glasses and a hat, or anything. Why didn’t he disguise himself? Well, he knew that lemon juice is sometimes used as an invisible ink. He smeared his face with a lemon, getting lemon juice on his face. His logic led him to believe that if the lemon juice is used as an invisible ink, then this would mean that it would also make his face become invisible to the security cameras. That day he decided to rob not one, but two banks. After he did this. The police arrested him, because his logic failed him. What made him to believe this?

Enter the Dunning-Kruger effect. This effect makes a person to overestimate his/her skills if the said person is poor at doing something, and it can also make a person that executes a skill excellently to underestimate his/her ability to do so. In a later paper Dunning described this effect further: “An ignorant mind is precisely not a spotless, empty vessel, but one that’s filled with the clutter of irrelevant or misleading life experiences, theories, facts, intuitions, strategies, algorithms, heuristics, metaphors, and hunches that regrettably have the look and feel of useful and accurate knowledge.”

Humans also have a knack when it comes to recognizing patterns. A good example of pattern recognition would be when a house has 2 windows on top (which tend to portray the eyes), and the door below and between the windows (which we tend to portray as the mouth of the face). This leads us to find causal relations in the world as well as meaningful patterns. The problems arise when we consider that recognition of pattern is an automatic process, and can therefore lead us to see patterns that don’t actually exist. Sometimes when west coincidences occur we tend to automatically think that whatever the outcome is, the previous event/action caused it.

We also have many biases that lead us to believe conspiracy theories. An example would be the Confirmation Bias. Sometimes we interconnect our ideas/thoughts into our personality, and assuming that they are wrong can lead us to think that deep down there must be something wrong with us. This can cause us to believe evidence that supports those ideas and thoughts and to totally disregard evidence that disproves them.

The proportionality bias leads us to think that big events must have been caused by something big. For example, research has found that people who believe in conspiracy theories tend to have a greater need for “cognitive closure” (the desire to have find an explanation when explanations are lacking) and the desire to be unique, and are more likely to have a cognitive bias” called “hypersensitive agency detection” or “teleologic thinking” (whereby events are over-attributed to hidden forces, purposes, and motives).

An unconscious process named “projection” also makes us believe that we have no negative qualities, but instead to attribute those qualities to another person. Liars are much more likely to believe that others are acting in a similar way. People don’t lie unless they are psychopaths and trying to take advantage of you, or (more likely) they feel weak or powerless.

There is also the desire for understanding and certainty. And we don’t just ask questions. We also quickly find answers to those questions—not necessarily the true answers, but rather answers that comfort us or that fit into our worldview. We all harbour false beliefs, that is, things we believe to be true but in fact are not. For example, if you believe Sydney is the capital of Australia, you’re the victim of a false belief. But once you’re confronted with the fact Canberra is the capital of Australia, you’ll readily change your mind. After all, you were simply misinformed, and you’re not emotionally invested in it.

Conspiracy theories are also false beliefs, by definition. But people who believe in them have a vested interest in maintaining them. First, they’ve put some effort into understanding the conspiracy-theory explanation for the event, whether by reading books, going to web sites, or watching TV programs that support their beliefs. Uncertainty is an unpleasant state, and conspiracy theories provide a sense of understanding and certainty that is comforting.

Another concept at play is also the desire for control and security. We prefer things to be under our control. It’s a natural desire of ours. For example, if you were to drive the car, there’s a high likelihood that you would feel safer, but if you were in the passenger seat, then you wouldn’t feel as safe. Conspiracies can give their believers a similar sense of control and security of their lives. For instance, if global warming is happening at such a uncontrollable, catastrophic, and dramatic rate, you would then need to make some serious life changing accommodations to your lifestyle. However, if a politician were to tell you that Global warming is a hoax, then you can go back to the lifestyle that you are currently living.

There is also the desire to maintain a positive self-image. Many people these days are working a job or raising a business in order to have income so they can feed their kids and pay the bills. We also try to spend some of it so we can have some fun time with our friends and family. You would feel really good if you knew that you changed that you changed someone’s life for the better.

However, if you are alienated from a larger society, then you are socially excluded. This, however, means that you will have more time to surf online and look up at conspiracies. You can also start to talk to other people online about those theories, and this can make you feel like you belong somewhere, and thus you are more likely to believe in conspiracies.

This alternative to the scientific method suggests that the senses and perceptions rule supreme. By this logic theorists, specifically the flat Earthers, “know“ that the earth is flat simply because it feels flat.

Sources:

– https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/search/site/conspiracies

– https://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/dunning-kruger-effect-and-anti-vaccine-attitudes/

