As Robert Mueller inches closer to a conclusion in his obstruction of justice probe, Donald Trump’s allies have become deeply invested in the idea that the president is the victim of an F.B.I. plot. “We learned today about information that in the immediate aftermath of his election, that there may have been a secret society of folks within the Department of Justice and the F.B.I.—to include [Lisa] Page and [Peter] Strzok—that would be working against him,” Republican Rep. John Ratcliffe said Monday on Fox News, referring to anti-Trump texts between an F.B.I. lawyer and investigator who had worked on Robert Mueller’s Russia probe. The following day, Senator Ron Johnson went further, suggesting that the alleged reference to a “secret society” in the Page-Strzok texts represented not just bias, but rather “corruption of the highest levels” within the bureau. “The secret society—we have an informant talking about a group that was holding secret meetings off-site.”

From a political standpoint, their efforts have been effective—the explosion of conspiracy theories has Trump’s base practically foaming at the mouth. Sean Hannity and Lou Dobbs warn nightly that there is a coup underway. If Mueller’s probe ends with an impeachment trial, Republicans in Congress and their constituents will have been primed to resist the conclusions of what they believe is a tainted investigation. From a legal standpoint, however, the conspiratorial frenzy may be working against the president. On Wednesday, Trump boldly promised to sit down with Mueller, telling reporters that he is “looking forward” to speaking with the special counsel “as soon as possible”—a promise that his lawyer quickly walked back.

Trump’s confidence is understandable, given the way Fox News and his Republican allies are portraying the F.B.I. House Republicans continue to claim that the classified memo compiled by House Intelligence Committee chairman Devin Nunes and his aides contains damning evidence that the F.B.I. and D.O.J. abused a federal surveillance program to target the Trump campaign, even though there is little evidence to suggest the document is anything more than a political ploy. The supposed Page-Strzok scandal has only fueled the hysteria.

Outside the bubble however, Trump’s house of cards is already falling apart. On Wednesday, ABC News got its hands on the full context of the “secret society” text, which suggests the comment was just a joke: “Are you even going to give out your calendars? Seems kind of depressing. Maybe it should just be the first meeting of the secret society.”

The disconnect between “fake news” and reality, and Trump’s difficulty differentiating between the two, could be dangerous as he prepares to face Mueller. He has reportedly made it clear in private that he is not concerned about an interview, because “he has done nothing wrong.” He expressed a similar sentiment on Wednesday, suggesting that his attempts to defend himself against a biased “Deep State” have been misconstrued as wrongdoing: “Now they're saying, ‘Oh well, did he fight back?’ . . . You fight back, oh, it’s obstruction,” he said.

That sense of victimization plays well on Fox News, and with Trump’s base, but it’s not a real legal strategy. In the short term, the president can shield himself by sowing distrust in the institutions that are investigating him, giving him some leverage should he move to fire Deputy Director Andrew McCabe or other officials involved in the Russia probe. But the political component of his strategy is only a firewall so long as Republicans control Congress. If Democrats take the House in 2018, Trump’s personal grievances will afford him no protection from impeachment.