Think Hawthorn are done? Think again. The team renowned for its innovation has spent the off season retooling with an array of interesting weapons, and what awaits should have you, the thinking fan of Australian rules football, salivating.

Last season ended in unusual fashion: Hawthorn didn’t make the second last round of the season. The brown and gold superpower had made it to a preliminary final for half a decade, their last absence in 2010’s pre-expansion haze.

Put simply, the Hawks were beaten up in both of their 2016 finals appearances, by two teams built for this express purpose.

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The Hawks’ ball-winning weakness was papered over for most of 2016; their skill and tactics were such that it mattered little that their opponents won the ball more often than not. In the heat of qualifying and semi-finals, this weakness was exposed. Geelong and the Western Bulldogs smacked Hawthorn by 52 and 50 in contested possession, respectively.

This was a choice made by Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson. How do I know? Despite their known ball-winning weakness, the elimination final and semi-final contested possession smashings were far and away their worst games by way of differential for the year.

Clarkson knew the weakness, knew his opponents would try to exploit it, and coached his team to instead double down on their prowess with the ball in hand.

It almost worked. Had Isaac Smith kicked truly after the siren in their qualifying final loss, Hawthorn would have traded a date with their Kryptonic (woo I made up a word) opponents the Bulldogs for a preliminary final with an extra week’s rest against Sydney at the MCG.

Instead, we’re here, with Hawthorn having executed one of the most brutally efficient off seasons in recent memory. The organisation which has become the envy of the rest of the competition enters the 2017 season with more question marks than any other, and far and away the most changes to the structure of their best 22.

How will it all play out? One way to analyse the problem is a list of costs and benefits. What do the Hawks lose from their cast offs, and gain from their new additions?



Loss: Sam Mitchell

The most appropriate place to start is Sam Mitchell, who remained one of the most consistently threatening playmakers in the game last season. Mitchell was first for the Hawks in score involvements per game (7.1, just ahead of Jack Gunston on seven flat) and second in metres gained per game (452, behind Isaac Smith).

Hawthorn’s offence flowed through him. This is particularly true in congested situations, where Mitchell’s ability to duck and weave and move the ball like he was operating it with a remote control meant his influence was not diminished despite his age.

There is little doubt the Hawks let go one of their most important players. They did it for the right reasons; allowing Mitchell to begin to journey down a path that will doubtlessly end in him coaching his club. But still, Hawthorn will feel his absence in the short term.

Loss: Jordan Lewis

Fellow veteran Jordan Lewis was also allowed to explore outside opportunities, with a reported extra year on a new contract the clincher in his move to Melbourne. His loss will be less acute to the Hawks, if only because Lewis has aged into a more-or-less average player.

That’s no knock on him, but it is reality. Lewis’ career evolution somewhat mirrors West Coast’s Chris Judd, in that he began as an outside runner and evolved into an inside ball winner-link man, although perhaps with more on the latter column. Lewis’ greatest attribute is his hardness and his will; again, there is nothing wrong with this.

While Lewis would have played 22 games for Hawthorn next season if fully fit, he would have hopefully faded to a sixth man or bench player through the middle. He’s good for 25 disposals at a decent efficiency a game, in a role that could be filled by a player with around two-thirds of the price tag.

Ironically, Lewis and Mitchell led Hawthorn in contested possession wins last year, with 222 and 216, respectively. Ageless Shaun Burgoyne was third on 197, before a cavalcade of forwards and Ben McEvoy. The next best midfielder for Hawthorn was the 13-game Will Langford on 134.

It’s a chasm, and an area of the game the Hawks list management team have gone about addressing.



Gain: Tom Mitchell

For all his skill, Sam Mitchell was a contributor to Hawthorn’s weakness on the inside. Not in terms of extracting the ball – he made them one of the best at that – but in terms of winning it. Sam Mitchell’s outsize role in the Hawthorn midfield meant there was less room for a more traditional inside animal, a Josh Kennedy or Nat Fyfe or Patrick Cripps.

Hawthorn killed two birds with one stone: they swapped Sam for Sydney’s Tom Mitchell.

Mitchell was one of the Swans’ inside warriors, alongside Kennedy, although more in the mould of an accumulator rather than a Herculean demi-god warrior. He averaged 28 disposals and a dozen contested possessions per game, while acting as a viable tagger on the rare occasion coach John Longmire would look to negate. Mitchell was one of only four players to lay six effective tackles and have 28 touches or more per game (the others being Zach Merrett, Adam Treloar and Tom Rockliff).

His disposal efficiency is not great (68.1 per cent according to AFL.com.au), particularly given he handballs more than he kicks. But Hawthorn’s problem is ball-winning, and Mitchell’s in-and-under stylings will suit nicely.

He enters this season as a 23-year-old with just four seasons under his belt. The Mitchell swap is centred squarely on fixing Hawthorn’s biggest deficiency.

Gain: Jaeger O’Meara

It’s hard to remember Jaeger O’Meara. The former Gold Coast Sun hasn’t played at AFL level since 2014, after destroying his left knee in a freak pre-season incident in 2015. O’Meara’s patella tendon was completely ruptured – an injury quite rare in the AFL because the mechanism required for it to occur is an unusual one for an AFL player to be subject to.

The Hawks are taking a calculated risk with him. O’Meara’s knee was technically fixed by the start of the 2016 season, but soreness and existing tendonitis flare-ups kept delaying his return date. Eventually, the Suns decided that there was no point rushing his return. 2017 would be the year of Jaeger.



(…)

When he was playing, O’Meara showed frequent flashes of his potential. He street the field in the 2013 Rising Star award, earning 44 out of a possible 45 votes, in a field dominated by midfielders. He didn’t miss a game in his first two years after debut, averaging 21 touches and ten contested possession wins a game.

O’Meara is the heir to Chris Judd’s throne – a freakish athlete with incredible agility and ground-ball winning ability who is as comfortable playing on the inside as outside.

Unlike Judd, O’Meara has an excellent overhead marking ability for his size (183 centimetres) and a lethal boot on the run. Imagine Judd’s pace and acceleration with Scott Pendlebury’s ball control. That’s O’Meara.

He has the potential to be a superstar for Hawthorn, but that potential is limited by the extent to which his knees can hold up. The Hawks are renowned for their ability to get the most out of traded players.

Burgoyne joined them in 2009 with a busted knee, but has played 162 games to date, and 83 in a row from Round 19, 2013 through the semi-final last season. Brian Lake joined in the 2012 off-season with a bung back, and played as full back in three straight premierships. The club managed to prolong the career of Max Bailey despite a series of knee injuries.

Hawthorn is the likely the best possible place for O’Meara to have a long, healthy career.



However, his long, healthy career with the Hawks might get off to a delayed start, with the most recent reports suggesting O’Meara will miss the first few rounds of 2017. That’s fine, he’s 23 and the Hawks will be eying him off as a ten-year player henceforth.

If Jaeger is able to build on the flashes of excellence he showed at the Suns in 2013 and 2014, he will give Clarkson a weapon unlike any he’s had at his disposal in Hawthorn’s recent run. That’s scary.

Loss: Bradley Hill

Bringing in the salaries of Mitchell and O’Meara probably necessitated the departure of Mitchell and Lewis. Bradley Hill was likely another salary cap casualty, albeit one who had flagged his intent to move home to Western Australia before the revolution began.

For all the razzle dazzle, Hill is a role player in so far as he doesn’t win much – if any – of his own ball. His 3.5 contested possession wins per game in 2016 make him the equal 578th ranked ball winner in the game. Despite his role, Hill finished well outside the top 50 in metres gained per game (with 339.5 metres).

His disposal efficiency of 72 per cent is more or less average, although he does kick almost twice as frequently as he handballs meaning it’s likely to be a decent mark.

His loss hurts, particularly in terms of the lost continuity and intellectual property Hill had built in his five years at Hawthorn. But, if Hawthorn’s list is chock full of any kind of player it’s outside-dominant midfielders.

Gain: Ricky Henderson

Besides, the Hawks bought in a direct replacement: delisted Adelaide runner Ricky Henderson, whose seven years at the Crows bought him 90 games, but just 34 in the past three seasons.

Henderson is a few years older, a bit bigger and probably a clip or two slower than Hill, but otherwise, check out their career stats.



Bradley Hill Ricky Henderson Kicks 11.1 10.0 Handballs 6.9 6.1 Contested possessions 4.0 4.6 Metres gained* 331.9 413.2 Disposal efficiency* 74.5 73.9 Tackles 2.2 1.7

*Data is for past three seasons only.

They are remarkably similar in profile, meaning the Hawks have swapped a player about to seek a lucrative fourth contract for a guy who had just been delisted and is happy to be pulling on an AFL jumper in 2017.

At the very worst, Henderson is a plug-and-play reserve option if one of the team’s youngsters is given an opportunity and can’t handle the heat.

Gain: Ty Vickery

We can’t forget the inclusion of Richmond’s Ty Vickery, who joined as a restricted free agent on a three-year deal.

The forward-ruckman might be the most maligned player in the AFL, and deservedly so in some ways given his penchant for the mediocre. But those calling him an instant bust might want to consider Hawthorn still got 20 hit outs and a goal a game out of a decrepit David Hale during their premiership run.

For all of Vickery’s flaws, the Hawks are in a much different position than the Tigers, and have a much more innovative head coach.

Vickery’s strengths are his size, his overhead marking ability and his kicking for goal. His weaknesses are ball winning and decision making. I have an inkling Clarkson will know how to maximise these strengths and minimise these weaknesses: station Vickery at full forward and instruct his players to kick it to his advantage.



I would not be shocked if Vickery played 20 games, kicked 50 goals and had ten hit outs per game. I wouldn’t tip it – I’m not mad – but Hawthorn and Clarkson receive an automatic benefit of the doubt in these situations.

That was close to the line Sydney’s Kurt Tippett put up in his best season as a Swan: 2015. Vickery might be a poor man’s Tippett, but that’s all he needs to be, particularly given Hawthorn are set to welcome the return of their Lance Franklin.

Gain: Jarryd Roughead

Not the Lance Franklin of course, but it’s hard to mount an argument that Jarryd Roughead is any less important to Hawthorn than Franklin is to Sydney.

There’ll be a standalone piece on the Return of the Rough in the coming weeks, so we’ll keep the remarks limited for now. Roughead’s inclusion on the Hawthorn depth chart is nothing short of revolutionary, given the manner in which the Hawks played ball last season. Hawthorn took just 11.8 marks inside 50 last season, ranked 10th in the competition and their lowest team total since 2010.

The Hawks relied upon a fleet of small forwards, young key position players and whatever Jack Gunston qualifies as in their forward 50 arc last year. It worked to a point, but it forced Hawthorn to rely more heavily on the ground game and forcing forward half turnovers than we have become accustom to. When they have been at their best, Hawthorn have been possession-heavy and used their incisive kicking skills to score.

Expect that preference to return this season.

This front six have the potential to become the most lethal in the game, and their unconventional attributes give Clarkson the chance to throw a variety of looks at the opposition. They can go small with Cyril Rioli, Luke Breust and Paul Pupolo deep, go tall with the three key forwards, or run something in the middle.



In fact, I’d go so far as to say Breust and Rioli will see plenty more time in Hawthorn’s engine room this season. It will be a completely different proposition for their opposition to plan for, and a remarkably challenging one.

Changing of the guard

The changes extend well beyond the bounds of the MCG fence. Hawthorn enter 2017 with a remarkably different leadership team than they began with in 2016. This is a more long-term issue, but friction across key management positions could also affect the team in the short-term.

Hawthorn’s chairman (Andrew Newbold), CEO (Stuart Fox) and General Manager of Football (Chris Fagan) have moved on to larger roles in the past 12 months. Only Clarkson remains from a leadership team which has bought the organisation four premierships in the past nine years (Fagan and Newbold were at the club in 2008, while Fox joined in 2009 from Geelong). His power and influence over club affairs must now be close to iron-fisted.

It makes the likely return of AFL 2IC Mark Evans to the club as CEO all the more interesting. Evans was poached from Hawthorn in 2013 after a decade-long stint at the club, which culminated in him becoming deputy CEO and General Manager of Football. He was the logical successor to Fox then, and looms large as his successor now.

All of this shifting up top belies a year of remarkable stability in Clarkson’s coaching ranks. There are five head coaches who earned their stripes as a Clarkson assistant immediately prior to being appointed to their current team. One Clarkson disciple was head hunted a year in the 2013 (Adam Simpson), 2014 (Luke Beveridge) and 2015 (Brendon Bolton) off seasons.

For a time, it looked as though Brett Ratten might head north to take up the vacancy eventually filled by Fagan, but he remains as Clarkson’s most senior assistant.

This stability, at a time of significant change on and off the field for Hawthorn, is a key asset heading into the season. Clarkson is the best coach never to win an AFL Coaches’ Association Coach of the Year award. Until his understudy, Beveridge, turned water into wine over a 47-game stretch, his status as the best coach in the game was undisputed.

He comes into 2017 with a chance to put any debate to rest.



I for one can’t wait to see what he’s concocting. You’d be mad to write Hawthorn off so long as Clarkson is in charge with a quality playing list at his disposal.

So in the aggregate, we know Hawthorn will be a significantly different side to the one that lost to Geelong and the Western Bulldogs at the end of 2016. A better one? Right now, it’s hard to say. But if there is any side that can take radical change and turn it into footballing joy – and wins – it is the Hawthorn Hawks.