Will voters elect Green Party’s Pete Fry to Vancouver City Council?

Vancouver B.C. (31 August 2017)

The by-election race for Vancouver’s vacant City Council seat is the Greens’ to lose. And lose they may to the Non-Partisan Association or Vision Vancouver, despite both being well back in the poll.

NPA support is composed largely of older voters who are more likely to cast a ballot. Vision is well known for its organized get-out-the-vote volunteers, a consistent advantage for the governing party over several election cycles. Either party, currently vying for second place, could upset a race that today favours the Greens’ Pete Fry.

Currently 38% of decided voters tell us they would support the Green Party, up from 30% in July when the party had yet to name candidate Pete Fry. NPA, whose support has softened over the past month, and Vision now compete for second place (21% and 19%). Support for OneCity, who announced their candidate Judy Graves prior to our July poll, has fallen dramatically (to 5%).

Currently, over half of Vancouverites (52%) are undecided or will not vote in the upcoming by-election. Even so, our poll’s 48% undoubtedly overstates expected voter turnout. Just 43% who were eligible voted in Vancouver’s 2014 municipal election. Fewer still turned out in 2011 (35%). Turnout to municipal by-elections, such as the October 14th’s council and school board vote, is even lower.

Who supports the Greens?

A challenge for the Greens is the composition of their support. Our poll finds that 64% of voters under 35 years will vote Green, while just 16% of voters 55 and older will do so.

To win that seat, the Greens must translate youthful intention into action at the polling stations October 14—a monumental task.

Who supports NPA?

If the by-election were held among residents aged 55 and older, NPA would be the clear winner:

NPA: 39%

Vision: 18%

Green: 16%

NPA’s advantage is their high levels of support among those residents most likely to vote.

Who supports Vision?

Currently, Vision’s lower support levels skew more West Side than East Side (25% vs 13%) and to those aged 35 to 54 years (25% vs 14% and 18% among younger and older voters).

Who do Vancouverites think their neighbours will support?

We asked Vancouverites how their neighbours will vote.

In findings that may predict a closer race, Vancouverites give the edge to the NPA over the Greens (31% vs. 27%). One-in-five (21%) believe their neighbours will support Vision Vancouver.

The largest group in our poll tell us they don’t know how their neighbours will vote (64%). But among those with an opinion, we glean some insight about how socially entrenched party support may be.

Half (50%) of NPA supporters believe their neighbours will also support the NPA.

Just one-third (34%) of Green supporters believe their neighbours will also vote Green.

Just over one-third (37%) of Vision supporters believe their neighbours will also vote Vision.

View data table here.

Research Notes

These are the findings of a telephone survey of 438 residents of the City of Vancouver. The survey was conducted by Justason Market Intelligence.

Dates of research: August 26-30, 2017.

August 26-30, 2017. Sample size: 438 Vancouver residents including 212 decided voters.

438 Vancouver residents including 212 decided voters. Methodology: Automated telephone interviews.

Automated telephone interviews. Weighting: Final population data were weighted to match actual regional, gender, and age distributions of the 2016 Canadian Census.

Final population data were weighted to match actual regional, gender, and age distributions of the 2016 Canadian Census. Margin of error: +/-4.7 percentage points 95% of the time.

+/-4.7 percentage points 95% of the time. Research Sponsor: Justason Market Intelligence Inc.

Note: Reported differences between our July and August polls should be treated as directional due to differences in methodology. Our July 2017 poll was conducted online.

For more information contact:

Barb Justason, Justason Market Intelligence Inc.

+1 604 783 4165 / Barb@JustasonMI.com / JMI.co

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