It's promising to be a close and unpredictable election in Yukon today, as voters head to the polls to choose the next territorial government.

The conservative-leaning Yukon Party is hoping to make history by winning an unprecedented fourth straight majority, but there are signs that Yukoners may be ready for change. An independent poll last month suggested the Liberal Party and the Yukon Party were in a dead heat out front, with the NDP close behind.

The last time Yukoners headed to the polls, in 2011, the resource-rich territory was enjoying an economic boom fuelled by high commodity prices. Darrell Pasloski's Yukon Party gladly accepted some credit for the good times, and handily won another majority.

The economic climate is much different now — mines have closed, exploration projects have halted, and the Conference Board of Canada has said Yukon's economy looks "bleak," at least in the near future. The Yukon Party has not been as willing to accept blame for the downturn.

Pasloski has instead focused his campaign message on the proposed federal carbon tax, saying it will make life unaffordable for Yukoners and his party alone will fight for, and win, an exemption for Yukon.

It's a close race to form the next government in the Yukon. (Dave Croft/CBC)

Liz Hanson's NDP has focused on environmental and social issues, saying the party would ban any fracking in the territory (the Yukon Party supports fracking in a small area of the territory's southeast). The NDP also promised measures aimed at alleviating poverty, such as raising the minimum wage.

Sandy Silver's Liberal Party has presented itself as a middle-ground option, taking a stand against fracking and stressing a positive message of collaboration and consultation, especially with respect to First Nations. The Yukon Party has had a fractious relationship (read: court battles) with First Nations governments, so the Liberals are promising better relations.

Here are some things to watch as the votes are counted on Monday night:

1. Will Yukon end up with minority government?

The close polling results suggest that it may be tough for any of the parties to win a decisive majority, even though they all apparently have a decent shot at it. Just as likely, perhaps, is a minority government.

The legislature in Whitehorse may see a minority government for the first time in 24 years. (Paul Tukker/CBC)

If that happens, it would be the first time in 24 years that Yukoners failed to deliver a majority government to the legislative assembly.

There are 19 seats in the legislative assembly, so 10 seats are needed to win a majority. But what happens if one party wins seven seats, and the others win six each? Or, even more potentially vexing — a seven-seven-five split? Who would form the government, and could they make a minority work? Would the Liberals and NDP work together to oust the Yukon Party? Would Yukon's commissioner need to get involved (something that's never happened before)?

The election may settle nothing, at least not initially. The worst-case scenario, for many Yukoners, would be another election sooner rather than later.

2. Will the leaders keep their seats?

Often, political parties count on their leaders being safely returned to the legislature even when the party's fortunes take a dive. In this election, there is no reason to assume any of the leaders are absolutely safe in their seats.

Yukon Party leader Darrell Pasloski won his Mountainview riding in 2011 by 104 votes, or about 10 per cent. It was his first election as MLA and as party leader. His challengers this time have been campaigning hard against him, and hoping that there's been a general shift away from the Yukon Party that could help bring down Pasloski.

Yukon Party leader Darrell Pasloski is in a fight to hold onto his seat in the Mountainview riding. (Paul Tukker/CBC)

Liberal leader Sandy Silver was a Dawson City high school teacher and political neophyte when he was elected in the Klondike riding in 2011. He became the party's leader by default because he was the only Liberal in the legislative assembly. He won his seat by 126 votes last time (about 11.6 per cent).

If the 2011 election is any guide, NDP leader Liz Hanson would appear to be the most secure of the leaders — she won her Whitehorse Centre seat by 323 votes, a 25.6 per cent margin of victory. Her Liberal challenger this time, though, has deep roots in the riding and was campaigning aggressively for months before the election call. The Yukon Party's candidate, meanwhile, is a well-known cabinet minister who announced his retirement this year, before deciding to jump into the race in Whitehorse Centre. This race could be a close one.

3. Will urban ridings vote differently from rural areas?

Most of Yukon's ridings and voters are in Whitehorse, so a party can't win power without at least some city ridings (of the 19 seats in the legislature, 11 are in Whitehorse). A party could, however, form a majority government without any seats from rural ridings.

Most of Yukon's voters, and thus seats, are in Whitehorse, so urban votes are essential to win an election. (Paul Tukker/CBC)

The independent poll done last month found the Liberals had a slight edge in Whitehorse, so it's possible that party could rack up a majority of seats in the capital alone, and in the process form the government.

The Yukon Party has won power with seats in urban and rural ridings in the last three elections, so there hasn't been a clear and firm political divide between the capital and the rest of the territory.

That may be changing, though, as Whitehorse grows faster and becomes more diverse than Yukon's smaller communities. Are their political leanings also diverging?

4. Could the Greens be spoilers?

The Yukon Green Party has never been a major factor in territorial politics, and it would be a shock to many Yukoners if any of the party's five candidates this time won a seat. In 2011, the party's two candidates won less than one per cent of the popular vote.

But it's possible the party could affect some local races, especially where the vote is expected to be close and even a handful of votes can make a big difference. Could the Greens be spoiler candidates?

Yukon Green Party leader Frank de Jong is hoping to get a seat for the first time for his party. (Philippe Morin/CBC)

Many Yukoners have Green sympathies, and likeable party leader Frank de Jong has run a spirited campaign, but it's tough to say whether that will translate into votes.

Some left-leaning Yukoners are still smarting from the federal election in 2011, when Green candidate John Streicker's strong showing likely helped Conservative Ryan Leef unseat popular Liberal incumbent Larry Bagnell in a squeaker (Bagnell handily re-claimed the seat in 2015, while Streicker is now running in the Yukon election as a Liberal).

5. How many will turn out on election day?

Yukoners like to vote. In last year's federal election, the territory had one of the highest turnouts of any province or territory, at 76 per cent (turnout across Canada was 68.3 per cent, the highest in 22 years).

The 2011 territorial election saw 74.3 per cent of eligible voters cast ballots, and turnout in 2006 was only slightly less, at 72.9 per cent.

The Yukon legislature also passed a number of changes to voting rules this year, aimed at making it easier for people to vote. Officials are accepting more forms of voter identification, and there are new provisions to allow people in remote areas to vote by phone or even Skype. Advance polls were also open longer this year.

There's reason to believe that Yukoners are especially engaged in this election, and turnout may be even higher than in the past. Advance polls last week saw nearly 23 per cent of all electors cast ballots — up from about 17.7 per cent in 2011, and 11 per cent in 2006.

Or course, there's also weather to consider. A snowy day — always a possibility in Yukon, in November — could discourage some voters, especially in rural ridings, from a drive to the polls.