Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. A memorable, mediocre campaign

5-7 seasons are about as unmemorable as it gets. You weren't terrible; you won five games. You clearly weren't that good, because you lost more than you won.

Look at Missouri's 2012, for example. The Tigers went 5-7, and while there were some fun moments (beating Tennessee in overtime in Knoxville) and some miserable ones (losing to Vanderbilt at home after the starting quarterback got hurt, losing to Syracuse at home after suspending the best player on the team for skipping class), it was mostly forgettable.

After going 23-5 in 2013-14, Mizzou went 5-7 again. And it was one of the most unforgettable campaigns in the school's recent history. And very little of it had to do with the season on the field.

The short version (Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports)



2016 projected wins: 6.1



Projected S&P+ ranking: 47 (11 in SEC)



5-year recruiting ranking: 33 (13 in SEC)



Biggest strength: The defense should again be tremendous.



Biggest question mark: Can a completely rebuilt offensive line avoid being a black-hole liability?



Biggest 2016 game: at South Carolina (Nov. 5). Reaching bowl eligibility could get tricky without a win in Columbia East.



Summary: Barry Odom's first Tiger team should feature another great defense, but offensive line performance and the development of QB Drew Lock will dictate whether Mizzou bounces back from a chaotic 2015 with a bowl bid. 6.1: 47 (11 in SEC): 33 (13 in SEC): The defense should again be tremendous.: Can a completely rebuilt offensive line avoid being a black-hole liability?: at South Carolina (Nov. 5). Reaching bowl eligibility could get tricky without a win in Columbia East.Barry Odom's first Tiger team should feature another great defense, but offensive line performance and the development of QB Drew Lock will dictate whether Mizzou bounces back from a chaotic 2015 with a bowl bid.

September 29 : Starting quarterback Maty Mauk is suspended for disciplinary reasons, making Drew Lock the first true-freshman QB Gary Pinkel has ever started at Missouri.

November 1 : Not long after his reinstatement, Mauk is suspended for the season. (He will end up dismissed for good.)

November 7 : Missouri players announce they will boycott the game against BYU in support of race-related protests on campus. For them to play, UM president Tim Wolfe will have to resign. November 8, Pinkel expresses support for his players. November 9, Wolfe resigns. The game goes on.

November 13 : Pinkel announces he is retiring at the end of the season to fight non-Hodgkin lymphoma, bringing a sudden end to the career of the winningest coach in both Missouri and Toledo history.

Amid this, Missouri's offense crumbled to the ground.

The Tigers' two best offensive players, running back Russell Hansbrough and center Evan Boehm, suffered injuries in the first quarter of the first game, and both limped through most of the season half-effective. The receiving corps was double-dipping in experience, replacing all three starters for the second straight year and bungling with freshmen, sophomores, and career reserves. With tackle Connor McGovern playing out of position and a cast of characters unready for prime time, Mizzou's offensive line was an outright debacle.

Add a freshman QB -- even a good one -- and you've got the perfect recipe for disaster.

Despite another fantastic defense (Mizzou was 13th in Def. S&P+), the Tigers plodded through unwatchable games: a 9-6 win over UConn, a 21-13 loss to Kentucky, a 21-3 loss to Florida, a 9-6 loss to Georgia, a 10-3 loss to Vanderbilt, a 19-8 loss to Tennessee. Mizzou allowed 21 or fewer points in 10 of 12 games but only won five of those.

Mizzou looked to defensive coordinator Barry Odom to succeed Pinkel. The former Tiger linebacker thrived as DC at Memphis and Missouri and created a pathway for Mizzou to pull off both continuity and major change (Odom only retained three assistants). He has remodeled almost the entire offensive coaching staff, and with graduate transfers and JUCOs, he has attempted to breathe life into a suddenly moribund offense.

If new offensive coordinator Josh Heupel's unit can rebound to mediocrity, the Tigers' defense will be good enough to win some games. But for anybody who watched last year's offense attempting to pull off even two decent plays in a row, it's easy to think of just how far away mediocrity is.

Most of the national Mizzou story lines remain focused on the protest and the ongoing instability, including an interim chancellor, interim president, and apparently a third interim athletic director. But to his credit, Odom has simply gotten to work.

The team practiced most of the spring away from the watchful eye of the media (and evidently will again in August) and enters the season with almost no expectations. But they should still boast one of the nation's best defenses, and hey, the offense has almost literally nowhere to go but up.

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 5-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 75 | Final S&P+ Rk: 85 Date Opponent Opp. F/+ Rk Score W-L Percentile

Performance Win

Expectancy vs. S&P+ Performance

vs. Vegas 5-Sep SE Missouri State N/A 34-3 W 81% 99% +4.6 12-Sep at Arkansas State 71 27-20 W 73% 72% -6.9 -3.5 19-Sep Connecticut 80 9-6 W 72% 85% -26.0 -18.0 26-Sep at Kentucky 91 13-21 L 23% 8% -15.4 -5.0 3-Oct South Carolina 88 24-10 W 68% 81% +16.3 +10.0 10-Oct Florida 27 3-21 L 30% 5% +5.6 -12.0 17-Oct at Georgia 30 6-9 L 43% 11% +10.2 +13.0 24-Oct at Vanderbilt 83 3-10 L 15% 2% -3.2 -9.5 5-Nov Mississippi State 16 13-31 L 20% 1% -5.5 -10.5 14-Nov vs. BYU 35 20-16 W 71% 64% +17.8 +10.5 21-Nov Tennessee 18 8-19 L 38% 7% -0.8 -2.5 27-Nov at Arkansas 11 3-28 L 10% 0% -8.1 -11.0

Category Offense Rk Defense Rk S&P+ 16.5 120 19.4 13 Points Per Game 13.6 127 16.2 5

2. Hopeless (and within one possession)

Missouri lost seven games in 2015, but only one got truly out of hand: the last one, in Fayetteville.

Even in double-digit losses to Florida and Tennessee, the defense played well enough that the Tigers could have stayed in with just a modicum of offense. But that modicum never came, especially against good teams.

Mizzou vs. top 30 :

Record: 0-5 | Average percentile performance: 28% (~top 90) | Yards per play: Opp 4.6, MU 3.9 (-0.7)

: Record: 0-5 | Average percentile performance: 28% (~top 90) | Yards per play: Opp 4.6, MU 3.9 (-0.7) Mizzou vs. everyone else:

Record: 5-2 | Average percentile performance: 58% (~top 55) | Yards per play: MU 4.7, Opp 4.1 (+0.6)

You aren't going to find teams that were more defensively successful against good teams than this; against top-30 opponents, the Tigers allowed 4.6 yards per play and 22 points per game. And they went 0-5.

Missouri ... Boston College ... Northwestern ... there were quite a few teams with fantastic defenses and dreadful offenses in 2015. The bar is set pretty low for the Tigers' attack this fall, but they can clear that bar if a completely rebuilt offensive line can hold up.

Offense

Q1 Rk 115 1st Down Rk 118 Q2 Rk 122 2nd Down Rk 124 Q3 Rk 117 3rd Down Rk 101 Q4 Rk 115

3. A Heupel offense

Say this much for Heupel: he's adaptable. The former Oklahoma and Utah State coordinator runs the ball when his guys can run, throws when they can throw, employs tempo when they're doing well, and doesn't when they aren't.

In 2014 at OU, with Samaje Perine in the backfield and a limited passing game, Heupel's offense skewed pretty run-heavy. In 2015 at USU, with a nice dual-threat in Kent Myers running the show for much of the season, Heupel went out of his way to keep his QBs in comfortable downs and distances, passing frequently on standard downs and running quite a bit on passing downs.

There isn't a Heupel system, only an attempted emphasis of strength.

So ... what are Missouri's strengths?

Lock still has a great arm. The former blue-chipper was thrust into a starting role and got almost no help. He ended up having a dreadful season, going 2-6 in games he started and completing under 50 percent of his passes. But if he can mature, and if Heupel (long regarded as a strong QBs coach) can get his development turned back in the right direction, Mizzou can still hope to utilize his beautiful right arm.

Running back Alex Ross is explosive. Heupel isn't the only OU import; Ross comes as a graduate transfer after getting squeezed out by Perine and Joe Mixon. He isn't as efficient as his big body would suggest, but he's also a hell of a lot faster than it would suggest. Mizzou had no run explosiveness last season.

Running back Ish Witter is a custom-made third-down back. He had a huge catch and run in the win over BYU, and Lock was dumping to him a lot on third downs in the spring game. He hasn't yet proven a worthy scatback successor to players like Henry Josey, Marcus Murphy, or Hansbrough, but his pass-catching ability will be utilized.

The receiving corps is more experienced. Last year's freshmen and sophomores are this year's sophomores and juniors, and Odom added another graduate transfer in Alabama's Chris Black, who could provide an efficiency option in the slot.

These pieces alone don't a good offense make. But you can see what Heupel might attempt to craft, mixing balance on standard downs (plenty of running, plenty of quick, horizontal passes) with lots of screens and checkdowns on third downs. If it works, then it can stress defenses enough to open things vertically. If it doesn't, Mizzou spends another year going three-and-out a lot.

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp

Rate Sacks Sack Rate Yards/

Att. Drew Lock 6'4, 205 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9535 129 263 1332 4 8 49.0% 25 8.7% 4.1 Maty Mauk 57 110 654 6 4 51.8% 5 4.3% 5.5 Marvin Zanders 6'1, 185 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8169 Jack Lowary 6'4, 215 So. 2 stars (5.4) N/A Micah Wilson 6'3, 205 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8404



Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Rushes Yards TD Yards/

Carry Hlt Yds/

Opp. Opp.

Rate Fumbles Fum.

Lost Ish Witter TB 5'10, 190 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8463 126 518 1 4.1 3.8 33.3% 2 2 Russell Hansbrough TB 111 436 1 3.9 4.2 30.6% 2 0 Tyler Hunt TB 42 185 1 4.4 7.8 26.2% 2 0 Alex Ross

(Oklahoma) TB 6'1, 220 Sr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9636 32 172 1 5.4 5.8 37.5% 2 2 Maty Mauk QB 31 165 1 5.3 7.2 35.5% 3 0 Drew Lock QB 6'4, 205 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.9535 27 184 1 6.8 6.5 48.1% 2 0 Morgan Steward TB 10 18 0 1.8 1.6 10.0% 0 0 Chase Abbington TB 6 39 0 6.5 3.1 66.7% 0 0 Trevon Walters TB 5'10, 200 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8540 Ryan Williams TB 6'0, 180 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8578 Nate Strong TB ? So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8959 Damarea Crockett TB 5'11, 210 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8664

















Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target

Rate Yds/

Target %SD Success

Rate IsoPPP J'Mon Moore WR 6'3, 190 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8653 65 29 350 44.6% 18.7% 5.4 50.8% 33.8% 1.48 Nate Brown WR 6'3, 205 Jr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8922 58 27 326 46.6% 16.7% 5.6 60.3% 41.4% 1.27 Wesley Leftwich WR 53 22 285 41.5% 15.3% 5.4 47.2% 30.2% 1.53 Jason Reese TE 6'5, 250 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8376 27 15 126 55.6% 7.8% 4.7 48.1% 37.0% 1.08 Sean Culkin TE 6'6, 245 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8641 26 16 139 61.5% 7.5% 5.3 61.5% 42.3% 1.11 Russell Hansbrough TB 21 17 59 81.0% 6.1% 2.8 42.9% 19.0% 1.12 Ish Witter TB 5'10, 190 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8463 20 15 143 75.0% 5.8% 7.2 40.0% 30.0% 2.19 Chris Black

(Alabama) SLOT 6'0, 192 Sr. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9768 18 15 188 83.3% 4.1% 10.4 72.2% N/A N/A Emanuel Hall WR 6'3, 200 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8498 17 8 64 47.1% 4.9% 3.8 47.1% 29.4% 0.98 Keyon Dilosa WR 6'3, 200 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8141 15 11 86 73.3% 4.3% 5.7 73.3% 53.3% 0.86 Cam Hilton WR

12 9 129 75.0% 3.5% 10.8 41.7% 66.7% 1.55 Ray Wingo SLOT 5'11, 175 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8733 8 4 24 50.0% 2.3% 3.0 62.5% 25.0% 0.88 Tyler Hunt TB 7 6 203 85.7% 2.0% 29.0 28.6% 71.4% 4.05 DeSean Blair WR 6'3, 190 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8582 5 2 25 40.0% 1.4% 5.0 40.0% 20.0% 1.99 Johnathon Johnson WR 5'10, 175 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8615 Justin Smith WR 6'7, 200 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8431 Richaud Floyd WR 5'11, 185 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8419 Dominic Collins WR 6'2, 175 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8367

4. Experience + complements

Depending on who wins the job, Mizzou could end up starting a senior running back, a senior tight end, and two juniors and a senior at wide receiver. This experience didn't exist last year, especially with Hansbrough so limited. And experience and continuity are very good things, especially in the passing game.

Quality still matters more. Ross appears to have lovely upside, as do a couple of new four-star additions in the backfield (JUCO transfer Nate Strong, freshman Damarea Crockett), but the receiving corps still looks like a bunch of complementary pieces. Maybe we call that depth if some true quality emerges.

J'Mon Moore was, like Hansbrough, playing hurt for much of the season. If healthy, maybe he has more upside than he showed in putting together a dreadful 34 percent success rate as Mizzou's No. 1 target. But he bears the burden of proof.

Offensive Line

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. 2015 Starts Career Starts Honors/Notes Evan Boehm C 12 52 Connor McGovern LT 12 40 Taylor Chappell RT 8 18 Brad McNulty LG 3 18 Mitch Hall RG 12 16 Nate Crawford LG







8 8 Michael Stannard

(Memphis) C 6'2, 280 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7000 1 8 Alec Abeln LG 6'3, 290 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8117 3 3 Malik Cuellar LT

0 0 Paul Adams RT 6'6, 290 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8494 0 0 Kevin Pendleton RG 6'4, 315 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8335 0 0 Samson Bailey C 6'4, 265 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8019 0 0 AJ Harris OL 6'4, 285 RSFr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8894



Tyrell Jacobs OL 6'4, 265 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8399



Tanner Owen OL 6'5, 280 RSFr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8190



Tyler Howell OL 6'8, 305 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8808



Kyle Mitchell OL 6'5, 305 So. 3 stars (5.5) NR



Darvis Holmes OL 6'5, 315 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.9566



Tre'Vour Simms OL 6'5, 300 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8467



Trystan Castillo OL 6'4, 295 Fr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8446





5. Good luck, Glen Elarbee

A year ago, Elarbee was Arkansas State's line coach, attempting to improve a reasonably experienced line that had suffered quite a few glitches in 2014. He succeeded -- ASU produced two all-conference performers in Colton Jackson and Jemar Clark, improved from 107th to 46th in Adj. Line Yards, and improved from 79th to 72nd in Adj. Sack Rate.

This solid performance, plus his growing reputation as a recruiter, got him promoted to the SEC. And now he faces a much tougher challenge.

Mizzou should improve at quarterback, with Lock no longer an overwhelmed freshman. The Tigers should improve at running back with the addition of Ross and the aforementioned four-stars. They should improve at least a little bit at receiver, just because of Black and experience.

But it's hard to look at the state of the line and get even slightly optimistic. The Tigers were a horrific 102nd in Adj. Line Yards and an embarrassing 126th in power success rate ... and they now return all of three career starts, 11 if you count those from Memphis graduate transfer Michael Stannard.

Odom did his best to address this issue. He signed two JUCO linemen and a late four-star commitment from Georgia lineman Darvis Holmes. Paul Adams and Kevin Pendleton were pretty well-regarded by the previous staff but weren't quite ready to contribute as redshirt freshmen -- maybe they're ready now.

Granted, rebuilding a miserable line is better than rebuilding a great one (the potential drop-off is minimal!), but Mizzou's ceiling is almost completely dependent on the state of the line. No pressure, Coach Elarbee.

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Defense

Q1 Rk 17 1st Down Rk 9 Q2 Rk 47 2nd Down Rk 6 Q3 Rk 10 3rd Down Rk 1 Q4 Rk 2

6. Flexibility

Odom employed a 3-4 defense as coordinator at Memphis and bounced back and forth between three and four down linemen and between a third linebacker and a fifth defensive back last year at Missouri. New defensive coordinator Demontie Cross spent the last three seasons learning the ins and outs of Gary Patterson's 4-2-5 at TCU, first as linebackers coach, then as co-coordinator. New cornerbacks coach Greg Brown most recently worked with Todd Grantham's 3-4 at Louisville. Line coach Jackie Shipp was most recently a part of Todd Graham's nickel-ish, 3-4ish system at Arizona State.

Odom doesn't seem to care about a particular system. (That was made even more evident by his offensive coordinator hire.) No, he wants flexibility; he wants attacking options and a scheme that can account for whatever strengths his personnel have. His staff should again have plenty of toys.

Even with this week's dismissal of end Walter Brady and 2014 star Harold Brantley (who missed last season after a serious car injury and appears to have fallen victim to academic issues), Mizzou still returns eight of last year's top nine linemen, two of three starters at linebacker, and five of the top seven in the secondary. There is experience, and there is proven attacking talent in players like end Charles Harris, linebackers Michael Scherer and Donavin Newsom, and corner Aarion Penton. And before a November knee injury, former blue-chipper Terry Beckner Jr. was showing flashes of five-star form.

This unit was a little bit lucky from an injuries perspective -- Beckner's injury was tough and costly but happened late in the year -- but for the most part the Tigers employed a deep rotation anyway, which means depth should be solid regardless.

Defensive Line

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Charles Harris DE 6'3, 255 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7000 12 44.0 6.4% 18.5 7.0 0 1 2 0 Walter Brady DE







12 30.5 4.5% 12.5 7.0 1 2 1 0 Josh Augusta DT 6'4, 345 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.9079 12 22.0 3.2% 8.5 0.0 0 1 0 0 Terry Beckner, Jr. DT 6'4, 300 So. 4 stars (6.0) 0.9918 10 20.0 2.9% 8.0 3.0 0 1 0 0 Rickey Hatley DT 6'4, 285 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8413 11 18.0 2.6% 4.5 1.0 0 0 0 0 Marcell Frazier DE 6'5, 265 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8744 12 14.0 2.0% 6.0 2.0 0 0 1 0 A.J. Logan DT 6'2, 300 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8210 12 14.0 2.0% 2.0 0.0 0 0 1 0 Nate Howard DE 6'4, 235 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8603 11 8.5 1.2% 2.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Josh Moore DT 6'5, 260 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8550 11 6.5 1.0% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0 Spencer Williams DE 6'3, 245 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8241 6 1.5 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Tre Williams DE 6'5, 235 Fr. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8670



















Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Kentrell Brothers WLB 12 112.5 16.4% 12.0 2.5 2 3 1 0 Michael Scherer MLB 6'3, 235 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8753 12 70.0 10.2% 9.0 0.0 0 3 0 0 Donavin Newsom SLB 6'2, 230 Sr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.9008 12 52.0 7.6% 9.0 2.5 0 2 2 0 Clarence Green SLB 11 18.5 2.7% 1.0 0.0 0 1 0 0 Joey Burkett WLB 6'2, 210 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8385 11 7.0 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Terez Hall SLB 6'2, 215 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8637 12 5.5 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Eric Beisel MLB 6'3, 225 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8672 12 3.0 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 Brandon Lee WLB 6'2, 220 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8962 11 3.0 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0 1 0 0 Franklin Agbasimere LB 6'2, 220 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8272 Trey Baldwin LB 6'2, 240 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8420 Cale Garrett LB 6'3, 225 Fr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8073



















7. The bar is high

Shipp inherits a talented unit and quite a bit of pressure. Departed line coach Craig Kuligowski was one of the most respected position coaches in the country, and he pulled off one of his most impressive coaching performances to date in 2015, crafting another stellar line (particularly against the run) despite starting a two-star sophomore and a two-star redshirt freshman at end in replacing departed pros Markus Golden and Shane Ray.

Brady's absence means someone like senior Marcell Frazier or sophomore Nate Howard will need to take a couple of steps forward in their development, but Shipp still inherits a proven, disruptive line. And a seasoned set of linebackers, led by the stalwart Scherer should be able to absorb the loss of dynamic Kentrell Brothers.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2016

Year Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR Anthony Sherrils SS 6'0, 200 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8591 12 52.5 7.7% 4 0 1 6 1 0 Aarion Penton CB 5'10, 190 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8423 12 50.0 7.3% 4.5 0 1 8 1 0 Ian Simon FS 12 38.5 5.6% 0 0 2 4 0 0 Kenya Dennis CB 12 33.0 4.8% 2.5 1 1 7 0 0 Thomas Wilson FS 5'10, 190 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8568 12 11.0 1.6% 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 Logan Cheadle CB 5'10, 180 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8381 11 10.5 1.5% 1 1 0 2 0 0 John Gibson CB 6'0, 190 Sr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8423 12 9.5 1.4% 0 0 1 2 0 0 Cortland Browning FS 11 6.5 1.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cam Hilton FS 6'0, 180 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8569 12 2.0 0.3% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Anthony Hines CB 6'1, 190 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8556 9 1.5 0.2% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tavon Ross SS 6'0, 200 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8436 7 1.5 0.2% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Finis Stribling IV CB 5'11, 175 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8029 Ronnell Perkins SS 6'0, 185 RSFr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8566 TJ Warren CB 5'11, 190 RSFr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8394 Greg Taylor S 5'10, 200 So. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8575 DeMarkus Acy S 6'2, 185 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8467



















8. Slight question marks in the back

Over the last five seasons, Missouri has improved almost constantly on defense, moving from 31st in Def. S&P+ in 2011 to 20th, 22nd, 15th, and 13th, respectively. The Tigers improved despite losing a ton of pros and defensive coordinator Dave Steckel. It's easy to assume that they will maintain a high level with this staff and this level of experience.

There are, however, at least a couple of questions in the back. Steady safety Ian Simon is gone, meaning someone like junior Thomas Wilson, JUCO transfer Greg Taylor, or sophomores Cam Hilton or Tavon Ross will have to not only assume more responsibility but play at a consistently high level. Plus, the CB position opposite Penton is up for grabs. It was assumed that the fight was between longtime contributor John Gibson and Logan Cheadle, but then redshirt freshman T.J. Warren ended up starting at corner in the spring game. Motivational tactic? Imminent breakout? Red flag? We'll see.

Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2016

Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20

Ratio Corey Fatony 5'11, 185 So. 81 42.9 3 28 26 66.7%

Kicker Ht, Wt 2016

Year Kickoffs Avg TB OOB TB% Corey Fatony 5'11, 185 So. 43 62.8 18 1 41.9%

Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2016

Year PAT FG

(0-39) Pct FG

(40+) Pct Andrew Baggett 15-15 15-16 93.8% 1-4 25.0%

Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2016

Year Returns Avg. TD John Gibson KR 6'0, 190 Sr. 13 14.8 0 Finis Stribling IV KR 5'11, 175 So. 10 16.4 0 Aarion Penton PR 5'10, 190 Sr. 15 7.7 1 Cam Hilton PR 6'0, 180 So. 6 3.5 0

Category Rk Special Teams S&P+ 69 Field Goal Efficiency 57 Punt Return Success Rate 83 Kick Return Success Rate 126 Punt Success Rate 26 Kickoff Success Rate 86

9. Fatony's leg gave out

Perhaps the single saddest thing about Missouri's pathetic offensive showing in 2015 was that it even wore the punter out. Corey Fatony performed tremendously for a true freshman, but he was asked to put an astounding 81 times, despite playing only 12 games and despite a plodding tempo. And down the stretch, there was a clear drop-off. Through eight games he was averaging 44.6 yards per punt; in the last four games: 39.5.

Fatony should be strong again in 2016, and the addition of Alex Ross, an excellent return man at OU, could impact special teams as much as offense. There is a red flag at kicker, though, where the steady Andrew Baggett will likely be replaced by another true freshman, Tucker McCann.

2016 Schedule Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 3-Sep at West Virginia 33 -7.6 33% 10-Sep Eastern Michigan 121 23.2 91% 17-Sep Georgia 15 -7.5 33% 24-Sep Delaware State NR 51.9 100% 1-Oct at LSU 2 -22.8 9% 15-Oct at Florida 19 -12.9 23% 22-Oct Middle Tennessee 90 12.9 77% 29-Oct Kentucky 83 11.0 74% 5-Nov at South Carolina 63 -1.2 47% 12-Nov Vanderbilt 69 6.8 65% 19-Nov at Tennessee 9 -15.3 19% 25-Nov Arkansas 17 -6.6 35% Projected wins: 6.1

Five-Year F/+ Rk 21.9% (26) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 34 / 33 2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -1 / -2.3 2015 TO Luck/Game +0.4 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 75% (82%, 69%) 2015 Second-order wins (difference) 4.4 (0.6)

10. Pull one upset

Because of recent success (East division champions in 2013-14), top-35 recruiting, and strong returning production on both sides of the ball, Missouri is projected to return to the top 50 this season. Obviously that isn't enough to make too much noise in the SEC, but it could be enough to get the Tigers back to the postseason.

The way the schedule sets up, MU will have to find an upset. The Tigers are given a 65 percent chance or better in five games this fall but face three likely losses and four games with win probability between 33 and 47 percent. Odds say Mizzou should just eke out a bowl bid, but it will be close, and the offensive line will likely tip the scales one way or the other.

The last 12 months have been ... unique in Columbia. But while the university and athletic department are still in flux, the football team could be a source of stability by simply locating one more win than last year and, if nothing else, having a forgettable fall off the field.