*Note, I am using solid numbers to make an optimistic case, there are counter arguments to be made, but I'm not trying to make an infallible argument, just one that offers a plausible explanation of the most recent numbers

Why This Should Be Romney's High Point

We just had 60+ million voters, many of them softly leaning or undecided about their vote, watch Romney have the best performance of his life while seeing Obama give one of his worst. In fact, to many low-information swing voters who do not follow the facts at all, it came across like Romney strongly bested the President. If that wasn't enough, the media came in with its bullhorn declaring Obama as a defeated president and Romney in ascendance, and we know from psychology that people are influenced on weakly held opinions by what the media announces.

So now swing voters have just been given more reasons than ever to lean towards Romney and to reconsider their vote for the president. And what happens at that very moment? A pollster calls and asks them who they will vote for...

Softly leaning Obama supporters will indicate they are not as enthusiastic to vote, perhaps excluding them from the likely voter sample. Softly leaning Romney supporters will be more hyped than they've been all year, guaranteeing they will be included in samples. True independent swing voters will lean as strongly Romney as they ever have, even more than the unconvincing RNC convention. Yet still, even with all of these are bounce factors, the President's campaign has been so strong that he still leads.

Another way of thinking about this: If swing voters and independents still won't vote for Romney in his post-debate glow, can you seriously expect them to vote for him in November? No



With the great unemployment rate news blunting Romney's momentum, we have a a very favorable VP Debate coming in a few days that a lot of people will watch. Because the media loves Biden jokes, his bar is very low, while the village hyped "genius numbers guy" Ryan has a very high bar. I always suspected Obama would have a tough time defending the economy, but in this case Ryan has to defend his ideology against a great attack dog in Biden. That will reinvigorate Democrats and left-leaning independents. Then right as that coverage and analysis fades, Obama gets a second at bat, and the bar for Romney is to beat the president by just as much as he did last time, setting Obama up for another boost even if Obama just ties. Then we have the final debate on the 22nd and then 15 days to either carry forward all the regained momentum, or reset any more stumbles. 15 days is an eternity in a presidential elections. All of this shows we are at a low point in the Obama campaign and we have a great path to wrap this thing up.

Obama's Electoral Firewall to 270+ Electoral Votes

For most of the year, pretty much everyone has accepted that Obama is strongly leading in states with 247 electoral votes (Strong blue states plus Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). In the past few months Ohio has stuck out as a new lean Obama state that pushes him to 265. We have also seen strong trends in Nevada, Virginia, and even recently Iowa. However Obama has been leading in Nevada all year, so let us use that state to push him to 271. This is his electoral firewall which, even in cases where the race becomes tied, will still get him enough electoral votes to win.

So, what do the post debate polls show? *Note, excluded some Republican pollsters such as WeAskAmerica and one of Gravis Marketing's poll

First, observe that Obama is still ahead in enough states to win 270+ electoral votes.

In Wisconsin, Obama still leads on who would better handle the economy. Overall he still captures 49% of the vote and has a two point lead. In Ohio, even the House of Ras reports Obama still at 50% even in this low point of his campaign. In Nevada, even Gravis Marketing has to acknowledge Obama is still in the lead. Please remember that in 2008 and 2010 pollsters dramatically underestimated Democratic turnout in Nevada

In 2008, the polls in Nevada averaged pointed to a 6.5 point Obama win, Rasmussen said it would only be 4 points. Reality? 12.5 point Obama win.

In 2010, the polls in Nevada averaged pointed to 2.7 point Angle win over Harry Reid, not one poll had Harry Reid in the lead. Reality? Harry Reid won by 5.6 points.

Whether it is a great Democratic year or a great Republican year, the pollsters across the board underestimate Democratic turnout in Nevada. Yet Obama still leads in the Nevada polls.

Add onto this the latest UoC Colorado poll showing post-debate likely voters have Obama in the lead, which is just a cherry on top.

Do the state polls show the Romney bounce is not a true swing, and is fading?

Yes, for several reasons:

1) The biggest bright spot: After a horrible Thursday and Friday for polling, the polls are already reverting closely to their pre-debate levels. This is natural, as right-leaning independents slowly lose their post-debate enthusiasm and left-leaning independents get over their grumpy moods. The great economic news, and reset Obama campaign mood only hasten the return to normal.

2) Republican-leaners came home the same way they would on election day. Of all the polls we constantly look at, there is a small amount of undecideds, and Obama was never going to get all of them, some are Republican-leaning who eventually went with McCain in 2008 and will go with Romney in 2012.

3) The movement is with white voters, not minorities who favor the president. If Obama can replicate 2008 turnout with minorities, then shifts with white voters will mean little.

4) "Very excited" voters give an inaccurate snapshot. Notice I am not saying an inaccurate poll, I believe PPP does solid polls and this one in particular is a solid poll. But if the right-leaning independents are excited to tell the pollsters they are voting for Romney now, and the left-leaning independents are just as gloomy as many kossacks have been, then an automated poll with a likely voter screen is going to detect a change even though those right-leaners were going to vote Romney anyway, and the left-leaners are going to vote Obama.

5) No movement with independents.

National Polling

Let's start with our favorite pollster, the House of Ras. Their latest 3-day poll is now exclusively comprised of post-debate likely voters churned through their unique Party ID weighing and more conservative demographics. Now I think we all fully expected Romney to be crushing the President in this poll. Results? Romney only +2

Now, you need to focus on two things to appreciate how small of a bounce this is for Romney:

1) Past Rasmussen bounces for Romney: Both in the summer and post RNC convention, Rasmussen gave huge leads to Romney, +8 points.

No one else was seeing these gigantic swings towards Romney, but Rasmussen loves setting the narrative.

2) During some of Obama's best parts of last month, when most polls were showing him with strong national leads, Rasmussen brought down the average Obama lead on RealClearPolitics to 3.1 points because it reported that its polling had Romney +2.

Rasmussen Tracking 9/14 - 9/16 45 47 Romney +2

That's right, when even the Libertarians at Reason/Rupe polling were showing Obama at 52% with a 7 point lead, Rasmussen insisted Romney was actually at +2, and no one here believed him. It is the same situation again today, Obama is still leading nationally.

Gallup:

Now I want to show you what I think is one of the unreported bright spots: Gallup

Gallup uses a three day sample for its approval rating. So Obama's approval at 48%-46% (+2) is entirely post debate. You are also seeing three out of seven of their polling data being filled with post-debate samples. You see several key things:

1) Despite the red movement in approval, Obama had what was almost certainly considered a statistical outlier the night before the debate with blow-out level approval.

Remember, the past two months Gallup has frequently been cited as the most pro-Romney mainstream poll, where we frequently had Obama with upside down job approval. But even on Obama's worst days of the campaign, Obama still even gets Gallup to give him +2 approval.

2) Before the debate, Gallup had the race at

49% Obama - 45% Romney

...three days later, with the worst post-debate polling numbers making up almost half the sample?

49% Obama - 46% Romney

Obama lost nothing in Gallup, and Romney only gained 1 point of undecideds. This correlates with the rest of the data we are seeing: Romney is only getting a nudge from undecided whites that were going to vote for him anyway, and Obama is holding his ground with enough votes to win re-election.

Reuters/Ipsos online poll:

While many like the idea of moving away from landline surveys, internet polling is not that refined, and we have seen some pretty volatile movements in Reuters polling compared to other polling results. However, Obama has been keeping a +2 lead the past three days, giving more evidence that Romney's momentum has stopped, and now we are just waiting for it to reverse.

Latest update from Sunday shows Obama still keeping his +2 lead:

On the broad question of who they will vote for in November, Obama kept his 2 percentage point lead among likely voters - 47 percent to 45 percent - in the online survey.

Key Quote:

"We haven't seen additional gains from Romney. This suggests to me that this is more of a bounce than a permanent shift," Ipsos pollster Julia Clark said.

RAND online panel:

Now, this isn't a traditional poll, but I think it is useful to examine. In the last four days on RAND, the panel voters there have gone from 49.76% Obama - 44.22% Romney (5.54 point Obama lead) to 48.95% Obama - 45.1% Romney (3.85 point Obama lead) a tiny 1.69 point bump for Romney. The last day showed the smallest increase for Romney as the momentum dies.

What does this show us? If you trust the RAND panel, it is that the debate followed history and didn't swing many voters, and that the movement to Romney is sputtering out. If all Romney received was a 1.69 point bump from his debate, we are in beautiful shape.

What data do we have outside of polling to show how much the race has actually changed?

In conclusion, I'd like to say I'm not just highlighting favorable polls for you...that I am not hiding the fact that this has actually turned into a real horse race, perhaps even favoring Romney.

How can I confidentially tell you that? Follow the money.

On the futures markets, things have calmed down in the several days since the debates, and look where we are:

Obama is still a strong market favorite, he has higher probability of winning than he did September 1st. Other markets, such as in Iowa and the UK, have Obama at 70% to 77%+ probability. These numbers are not based on any polling, but rather simply where people are putting there money.

Now, if all those rich Republicans really believed their bullshit articles about how Romney has made this into a horse race, why hasn't Romney's numbers skyrocketed to at least the 45% probability he was two months ago? What Republican wouldn't want to triple their money by investing thousands of dollars in Romney shares?

Because even Republicans realize this is a short and insignificant bounce, and Obama is still headed for a second term.

From the Comments, pollbuster posts more good news:

"In Yesterday's Reuters/Ipsos, Obama actually picked up momentum, with registered voters going from 45-41 on Friday to 47-41; another indication that any bounce is already weakening."



New poll in VA, all post-debate likely voters: Obama 50, Romney 47

(PPP says that while independents overwhelmingly think Romney won, they still split their vote)