Appendix

Material used in Experiment 4 (English translations)

Many large or small events in life appear to happen randomly or “by coincidence.” We describe below four incidents where random factors are involved. [Randomness condition: In your opinion, to what extent can each of these events be considered random?] [Probability condition: Some of them appear to be more or less likely than others. In your opinion, to what extent can each of these events be considered likely?]

1

A: In Oslo, the highest temperature of the week occurred on Sunday.

B: In Oslo, the temperature on Sunday was higher than the other days of the week.

2

A: Paul, a truck driver with no previous record of accidents, collides head-on with a very drunk driver, John, driving in the opposite direction. The truck driver escapes from the collision uninjured, whereas the drunk driver is killed in the crash.

B: John is very drunk when driving his car and collides head-on with a large truck driving in the opposite direction. The truck driver, Paul, who has no previous record of accidents, escapes from the collision uninjured, whereas the drunk driver is killed in the crash.

3

A: A student named Oscar is travelling from Oslo to London. He is a great fan of Jo Nesbø, a famous Norwegian writer of crime novels, and is reading his latest book. He discovers that the guy seated next to him in the plane is actually Jo Nesbø himself. Now he can ask him to sign the book.

B: Jo Nesbø, a famous Norwegian writer of crime novels, is traveling from Oslo to London. He discovers that the guy seated next to him in the plane, a student named Oscar, is actually reading his latest book. Oscar is a great fan of Nesbø and can now ask him to sign the book.

4

A: Ruth is a student who sits for an exam in modern history. She has only read the first two chapters in the history book and expects to fail. The teacher usually selects questions from all parts of the book, but this time all his questions are from Chapters 1 and 2. Ruth is very happy with the teacher’s choice. Now she will pass the exam without any problems.

B: A teacher prepares questions for an exam in modern history. He usually selects questions from all parts of the history book, but this time all his questions are from Chapters 1 and 2. One student, Ruth, is very happy with the teacher’s choice. She has only read the two first chapters in the book and expects to fail. Now she will pass the exam without any problems.