Is Donald Trump about to launch a war against Venezuela? Judging from the president and his supporters’ recent rhetoric it appears that they are laying the ground for such a possibility. In a CBS interview on Sunday Trump said that sending US troops to crisis-ridden Venezuela is “an option”. He also affirmed that he had rejected a request from Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro for talks.

Trump, his close supporters in the White House and now European leaders have recognised Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s interim president. This is despite the inauguration of Maduro for his second term as president on 10 January. The pretext is the grave crisis afflicting Venezuela, where around 3 million people have fled the country over the last four years, as a consequence of economic collapse and Maduro’s increasingly authoritarian tendencies.

The US might not intervene directly. It could foment a proxy war waged by the mini-Trumps of the region, Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro and Colombia’s Iván Duque Márquez. Both have publicly stated their wish to bring down Maduro’s government.

A war in the region would be a humanitarian disaster. All parties directly involved – Venezuela, Brazil, Colombia and of course the US – have strong militaries, capable of inflicting massive civilian casualties and infrastructural damage.

It is tempting to interpret this slide towards conflict as another example of Trump’s know-nothing approach to world politics, backed by his “team of morons”. But such interpretations hide a two-centuries-long US project of carving out and maintaining Latin America as its backyard.

Trump certainly deployed anti-interventionist rhetoric during his 2016 election campaign. But his “America First” agenda is based on re-positioning the US internationally, which, by definition, requires a re-shaping global geopolitics.

Far from Trump being advised by “morons”, two of his closest allies, Vice president Mike Pence and Bolton are both guided by the principles of the Monroe Doctrine. The doctrine, articulated by President James Monroe in 1823, stated that the US would guarantee the new-found sovereignty of its Latin American neighbours. Its underlying objectives were to establish the region as its economic backyard.

Through a combination of gunboat and dollar diplomacy – real or threatened force combined with loans – the US facilitated the emergence of agro and mineral exporting ruling classes across the region. These supplied cheap raw materials, produced by impoverished labouring classes, to the industrialising north of the US and provided markets for manufactured goods.

Monroe doctrine principles informed US support for dictatorships and counter-insurgent movements up to the present day. From backing the Argentinian Junta’s dirty war in during the 1970s and early 1980s (30,000 dead) to direct intervention in El Salvador in the 1980s (75,000 dead), US intervention was explained as an essential counter to the threat of Communism and the protection of Latin American sovereignty.

Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Show all 18 1 /18 Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Protesters clash with the Bolivarian National Police during a demonstration against the government of the Venezuela and president Nicolas Maduro in Caracas on 23 January 2019 EPA Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Demonstrators cheer as Venezuela's National Assembly head Juan Guaido declares himself the country's "acting president" at a rally in Caracas AFP/Getty Images Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Opposition supporters take part in a rally against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government REUTERS Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Opposition supporters take part in a rally against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government in Caracas REUTERS Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Juan Guaido, head of Venezuela's opposition-run congress, declares himself interim president of the nation until elections can be held during a rally in Caracas demanding leader Nicolas Maduro's resignation AP Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Opposition supporters carry letters to form the word "Democracy" while taking part in a rally against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government REUTERS Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Police watch over marching anti-government protesters in Caracas EPA Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government A vehicle is overturned as opposition demonstrators block a road during a protest against the Venezuelan government AFP/Getty Images Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government A National Police officer fires rubber bullets during a protest against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government in Caracas REUTERS Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government A demonstrator throws back a gas canister while clashing with security forces during a rally against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government in Caracas REUTERS Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Security forces look on after clashing with opposition supporters participating in a rally against Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro's government REUTERS Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Demonstrators during a protest against the government of Nicolas Maduro at Plaza Altamira in Caracas Getty Images Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Demonstrators during a protest against the government of Nicolas Maduro at Plaza Altamira in Caracas Getty Images Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government epa07313731 Opponents of Chavism demonstrate against the Government of President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela, 23 January 2019. Chavists and opponents are again demonstrating in the streets of the country to support or question the legitimacy of the head of state, which the Parliament and a large part of the international community do not recognize. EPA/CRISTIAN HERNANDEZ CRISTIAN HERNANDEZ EPA Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Riot police clash with opposition demonstrators during a protest against the government of President Nicolas Maduro on the anniversary of the 1958 uprising that overthrew the military dictatorship, in Caracas on January 23, 2019. - Venezuela's National Assembly head Juan Guaido declared himself the country's "acting president" on Wednesday during a mass opposition rally against leader Nicolas Maduro. (Photo by YURI CORTEZ / AFP)YURI CORTEZ/AFP/Getty Images YURI CORTEZ AFP/Getty Images Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government The remains of a statue of Venezuela's late President Hugo Chavez is seen hanging from a pedestrian bridge after it was destroyed in San Felix, Venezuela REUTERS Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Riot police on motorcycles clash with opposition demonstrators during protests in Caracas AFP/Getty Images Venezuela protests: thousands rally against government Supporters celebrate Juan Guaido declaration that he is Venezuelan president EPA

Following the collapse of Communist Russia in 1991 it looked as if Latin America was now firmly under US influence, with free-market, export-orientated regimes in place across the continent. But from the early 2000s onwards, US authority in the region suffered death by a thousand cuts. One regime after another shifted leftwards, and embraced social democratic and even socialist principles.

Nowhere was this movement stronger than in Venezuela under Hugo Chavez. His socialist agenda was based on pumping receipts from oil revenues into the social economy – via the so-called Misiones social programmes dedicated to fighting poverty and increasing literacy through mass democratic participation. Minimum wages were increased and land redistributed to the rural poor.

Initially, these objectives were more successful than any other social programme in the country’s history. But this strategy offered diminishing returns before turning into a vicious downward spiral.

Chavez’s oil-financed socialism was beset by a dual contradiction. First, without a strategy for non oil-based wealth, the edifice was built on high world oil prices. In the late 1990s 67 per cent of Venezuela’s external income came from oil; by 2017 the figure was 95 per cent. And when oil prices fell, which they did precipitously in 2014, the strategy was undermined fatally.

The channelling of oil wealth through social programmes did initially serve to draw hundreds of thousands behind Chavez. But the Misiones’ dependence on state funds gradually transformed these potential hubs of social transformation into units competing for government money. When it dried up, not only did the objective of improving social conditions of the masses falter, but so too did its popular support base.

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Without an upsurge in oil finances, Chavez’s successor Maduro has presided over a declining economy and a rising social crisis. Short of a mass democratic counter-movement from below, he has been able to use diminishing oil receipts to buy off elements of the state bureaucracy and military and to deploy increasingly authoritarian means to maintain control.

The attempts by Guaido, supported by the Trump administration, to proclaim himself interim president of Venezuela offers no hope to the country’s increasingly desperate masses. US intervention in Latin America over the last two centuries has been driven by its own perceived self-interest. It has occurred in collaboration with local elites who are happy to dip their beaks into the proceeds of US-orientated low-wage export economies.

The Achilles heel of the Monroe Doctrine, despite overwhelming US power, has always been its America First mentality at the expense of the Latin American masses. The attempt to install Guaido may or may not be successful but it will not solve the social crisis gripping Venezuela. That can only come from within the country, by a social and political force capable of putting the needs of its population first.