This is part of a series of draft analysis pieces based on a look at team draft results between 2000-2012. For a look back at prior articles, or an explanation of my collection method, please check here: NHL Draft Analysis – Finding 100 Game Players.

Between 2000 and 2012, NHL GMs called out 3,152 names at draft podiums around North America. Of those thousands of hopeful 18-year-olds and overagers, only 666 went on to play 100 games in the NHL. That works out to approximately 21 percent — about one in every five draft picks.

If a team has all of its own picks in the seven-round modern draft, they should only expect to select one 100-gamer.

Mikael Tellqvist playing with Dynamo Riga pic.twitter.com/mQCT04GXpI — Goalie Gear (@Goalie_Pads01) April 23, 2014

But 100-gamers include the likes of Mikael Tellqvist, Nathan Paetsch, Krys Kolanos, and Sami Lepisto — names that don’t do a lot to get fans excited. More importantly, these and many other players who inch across the 100-game plateau don’t tend to increase their team’s chances of winning in a lasting way. Many of these players come and go, never making a deep impression on the franchise that drafted them.

With that in mind, I’ll take a look at the players drafted between 2000-2012 who have played 500 NHL games or more. Before we start, the methodology (borrowed from the 100-gamers piece, altered for the 500).

Methodology: What I’ve done and what I haven’t

For this study, I examined all drafts between 2000 and 2008. I scanned for all players that had played 500 games or more. The results for the 500-gamers will be presented here.

Starting with 2000 made sense because that’s when the NHL grew to its 30-team size. Stopping at 2008 was out of necessity. Players drafted from 2009 onwards simply haven’t had the opportunity to play more than 492 games. A few are close — John Tavares, Matt Duchene, and Ryan O’Reilly could reach the plateau in 2015-16. Because it would be impossible to have played 500 games between 2009-2015 alone, the research pauses in 2008.

I have not included any considerations for point totals, CF%, wins and shutouts, or any other indicators of player quality yet. That’s a much bigger issue that will be tackled over time. For now, success is simply a draft pick that reaches the NHL and plays 500 games.

On with the results.

Overview

top 3 #NHL draft picks of 2000 (l-r) no. 2 Dany Heatley, no. 1 Rick DiPietro, and no. 3 Marian Gaborik pic.twitter.com/FmwHEzS9Va — Jen (@NHLhistorygirl) June 11, 2015

Starting with Rick DiPietro in 2000 and ending with Jesper Samuelsson in 2008, there were 2,311 draft picks in nine drafts between 2000 and 2008. Of those selections, 179 have since played 500 games. A few more are likely to join that group next season — Luke Schenn, Josh Bailey, and Brandon Sutter are close. Overall, a draft pick during this span had a 7.75 percent chance of developing into a 500-gamer.

Though I won’t break it down round-by-round for now, first- and second-round picks are clearly the from the eighth round of the 2003 draft and have more than 500 NHL games. For the most part, players with long-term longevity are selected within the first 60 draft choices.

Team by team, there’s a lot to see.

Above you’ll find all 30 NHL teams ordered by the number of draft picks they had between 2000-08. The data gathered for this spreadsheet can be found here.

On average, teams had 77 picks and succeeded in finding 500-gamers with 7.75 percent of picks league-wide. Statistically, each team was expected to draft six 500-gamers during this span. The colours represent teams that stood out in their ability/inability to equal that standard.

Teams in green — Buffalo, Los Angeles, and Chicago — outperformed the NHL average in identifying 500-gamers. Teams in red underperformed. That group includes Arizona, New Jersey, Columbus, Colorado, New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning. The other 21 teams showed average performance and are displayed in unexciting grey.

One sweeping observation across all teams is that borrowing the Belichick drafting strategy for the NHL, which seemed to be of use for finding 100-gamers, doesn’t apply as strongly here. Five teams with above-average pick totals did not find enough 500-gamers. In fact, Tampa Bay — boasting the third-highest pick total during this span — found no 500 gamers at all (more on this below).

On the other hand, the two teams with the most draft choices during the era did find an above-average number of 500-game players. So, maybe there is a little something to draft more, find-more. Still, the Buffalo Sabres were the best performers by far during this period (more on them below) and they were below average in pick total.

With those league-wide thoughts in mind, let’s take a closer look at the best and worst 500-game player drafting teams of the 30-team era; the Buffalo Sabres and the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Buffalo Sabres

[email protected] vs. Paul Gaustad #Sabres #Predators @BuffaloSabres pic.twitter.com/PufYTM3rmV — Melissa Kathryn (@KonopkasScarf) March 12, 2014

Buffalo’s run to the top of the 500-game draft table began in the 2000 draft when the team plucked Paul Gaustad from the WHL’s Portland Winterhawks in the seventh round. After Gaustad, the Sabres uncovered 11 more eventual 500-gamers, three more than the Blackhawks and Kings who tied for second place.

The picks include*:

Gaustad

Jason Pominville

Chris Thorburn

Derek Roy

Dennis Wideman

Dan Paille

Keith Ballard

Jan Hejda

Clarke MacArthur

Thomas Vanek

Drew Stafford

*Andrej Sekera (486 games played) will likely become the 12th member of this group in 2015-16

In their respective primes, the group includes some high-end offensive forwards, quality two-way players, offensive defensemen… and Chris Thorburn. Sure, there are no Hall of Famers here but the quality that is present is made all the better by the quantity. It is at least a somewhat interesting commentary that not one of these players remained with the Sabres throughout their career. Those types of transcendent stars are truly rare.

The Sabres’ success is made all the more impressive by the fact that the team drafted only 75 times between 2000-2008. The team drafted 500-gamers with approximately 15 percent of their choices, almost double the league average.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Video: Steven Stamkos Talks About Going First In The Draft – http://t.co/adsa50JWAf #NHL #TBLightning pic.twitter.com/CtUEvdWts8 — LightningShout (@LightningShout) June 25, 2015

Tampa Bay hasn’t shared in Buffalo’s luck.

At the risk of making the data impure, the Lightning graph does represent one 500-gamer; Steven Stamkos. The problem? Stamkos only had 492 games played. No other exceptions like this were made. I justify it like this: To say that the Lightning have never drafted a 500-gamer in the 30-team era when Stamkos, the franchise cornerstone, will cross that threshold this October? It just seemed disingenuous.

I’ve made my peace with the decision.

Even with Stamkos snuck into the mix, the Lightning have still performed terribly. After Stamkos, the next highest is Paul Ranger at 323 games played. So, not close. The only pick during the span with any real chance of reaching 500 games is Alex Killorn (191 games played) but he isn’t a sure bet. Their 86 draft picks was third-most in the NHL during this timespan. Statistics suggest that, with average drafting, the team should have chosen 7 500-gamers.

In the end, they didn’t really have even one.

Some conclusions for now…

For the most part, teams seem to mostly succeed in finding 500-gamers, regardless of the reputation of their scouting department. Twenty-two teams were even with, or within one player of, their expected 500-gamer haul. Despite the outcries often heard in New Jersey, Toronto, Vancouver, and elsewhere about their team’s drafting past, each of those clubs performed within expectations and around the NHL average.

Another thought is that the Belichick strategy of relying on a quantity of picks isn’t fool-proof here. Tampa Bay was stymied in the efforts to draft long-term NHLers despite above-average chances. Carolina and Vancouver both drafted five 500-gamers (equal to their expected haul and within one of the NHL-average) despite having few draft choices during this era.

Finally, though I couldn’t find any reason to include the photo below in my article, it was just too good to leave aside. Bonus points if you can name the Nordiques pick featured here. No cheating.