A misguided faction of Bucs fans clings to the fantasy that Tampa Bay should not trade Mike Glennon this year because they will get a 2018 third-round draft pick — a compensatory pick — when Glennon leaves next offseason and signs a big free-agent deal.

Joe appreciates the blind hope, but that’s all it is.

The simple reality of earning a compensatory pick, which the Bucs never seem to score, comes down to how many free agents leave and sign elsewhere compared to how many players a team signs in free agency in a given offseason.

The qualifying window is the start of the league year in March through May 1, per super agent Drew Rosenhaus, who discussed the subject Friday on The Joe Rose Show on WQAM in Miami.

For example, say the Bucs lose Glennon, Demar Dotson and Akeem Spence in free agency next offseason, and Vincent Jackson retires. Under that scenario, to even have a shot at a compensatory pick, the Bucs would have to sign two or fewer free agents in March and April of 2017, because Jackson’s retirement wouldn’t count.

It’s very hard to believe the Bucs wouldn’t sign a few free agents. But the example illustrates how it’s a total crap shoot to bank on getting a pick for Glennon leaving.

Magnifying the shaky probability is the salary variable in the equation. A team only has a chance at a third-round pick if it has a net loss of free agents and one of them signs a massive deal somewhere else.

These dreamer fans think Glennon is the next Brock Osweiler! Ridiculous!

The compensatory pick rules are complicated and Joe advises against believing the nugget of Glennon speculation heard on ESPN.

Changing The Rule

Teams worrying about compensatory picks is common in the NFL, per Rosenhaus, who is lobbying to abolish the practice.

Rosenhaus hinted the Bucs’ signing of Vikings free agent cornerback Josh Robinson last week happened because the Dolphins are clinging to their eventual 2017 compensatory draft picks.

“You know, the Dolphins brought in a ton of free agents,” Rosenhaus said. “And I know people were frustrated when they saw, — we had a couple of clients come in like [linebacker] Sean Spence and Josh Robinson the cornerback, these are two local guys that signed elsewhere. One of the reasons the Dolphins aren’t signing these free agents, quite frankly, is because they are very mindful of the compensatory picks. “So one of the things that I’ve said to the union is, ‘Can we get rid of the compensatory picks? Because it really does affect free agency. You know, if we’re going to have free agency, let’s do it where teams aren’t holding back because they want to collect on draft picks.’ “I literally had teams say to me, ‘Look, we’re not going to able to sign this guy because we’re mindful of where we are in the compensatory pick calculations. We don’t want to be upside down on that.’ “I will tell you that the Green Bay Packers, they won’t sign a free agent. Period. They’ll sign guys that were cut, that won’t count against the draft picks. They’re so mindful of getting extra picks. “Now this doesn’t matter if you don’t lose guys [in free agency]. But you know the Dolphins have probably lost more [free agents] than anyone else this year other than the Denver Broncos. … That’s something I’m competing against now when I try to get our guys signed.”

And since you made it this far, now you understand another reason why the Bucs absolutely should trade Glennon if they have a third-round pick on the table. Or maybe even an early fourth-rounder.