More than 60% of Puerto Ricans tell pollsters that they would like the Commonwealth to become the 51st state

IN 1952 America granted self-rule to the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico, which it had obtained from Spain in 1898. Last year Congress in effect revoked that autonomy, by creating a control board capable of vetoing any item in Puerto Rico’s budget.

The reversal was hardly an act of imperial gluttony. The island had issued $70bn in debt, far more than its stagnant economy could hope to sustain. But because Puerto Rico is not a state, its public companies could not use the bankruptcy code used by insolvent borrowers like Detroit. That raised the spectre of a chaotic default.

In response, Congress passed a law with a tough trade-off. To obtain a bankruptcy-like proceeding that would shield the wayward island from its creditors, Puerto Rico had to relinquish control of its finances. Nonetheless, the policy bolstered the argument long made by proponents of both statehood and independence: that Puerto Ricans have no right to self-determination. “The creation of the control board took our status as a colony out of the closet,” says Ana Rivera Lassén, a leader of the movement opposing the board. “It showed us what we really are.”

Puerto Ricans now have the chance to demand a change. On June 11th the territory will hold a referendum on its status. In 2012, the last time islanders voted on the issue, the results were ambiguous. In a two-stage ballot, 54% said they opposed the status quo, and 61% of voters who made a selection picked statehood as their preferred alternative. But since a quarter of voters left the second question blank, just 44% of ballots actually supported statehood.

This time, there will be a single question with three choices: statehood, “current territorial status” and independence. Moreover, thanks to the austerity imposed by the control board—representing some 20% of total public spending by 2019—enthusiasm for the status quo has shrivelled. And because support for independence has always been scant—most Puerto Ricans treasure their American citizenship—many former believers in the Commonwealth now see joining the union as the least-bad option. Recent polls show that 60-70% of respondents expressing an opinion want Puerto Rico to become the 51st state. Moreover, leaders of the two parties opposed to statehood have called for a boycott, all but guaranteeing a robust majority among those that show up to vote.

Even a resounding victory for statehood would be mostly symbolic, however. For Puerto Rico to enter the union, Congress needs to pass a law admitting it. Even though the Republican platform of 2016 officially supported Puerto Rican statehood, it would not rush to add two senators and five representatives who would probably lean Democratic.

Moreover, even a future Congress might require another referendum. The Justice Department (DOJ) rejected Puerto Rico’s first request for official recognition for the vote, citing concerns with the ballot choices and language. Although the pro-statehood governor, Ricardo Rosselló, modified the options and wording, he did not delay the vote to give the DOJ time to deliver a new verdict. Doing so would have postponed it until after budget cuts, when both he and his cause are likely to be far less popular. Mr Rosselló will not have long to celebrate his side’s expected victory before he is saddled with the political costs of the colonial status quo.