Monday Update: Disney’s animated sequel Toy Story 4 started with $120.9M this weekend, a good debut but below both pre-release expectations and several other recent Pixar sequels.

It began -10.4% below Finding Dory, -33.8% behind Incredibles 2, and -4.1% behind the inflation-adjusted opening of 2010’s Toy Story 3. (Although it opened higher than Toy Story 3 in pure dollars.)

Our full table of weekend actuals is below.

Comparisons

Total box office this weekend was $203.6M.

That’s +49.9% above last weekend but -26.6% below this same weekend last year, when Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom led with $148.0M.

Year-to-date box office stands at $5.35B. That’s -8.9% behind this same date last year, down from -6.9% after last weekend.

Some analysts still predict 2019’s box office will ultimately beat 2018’s, on the strength of a strong upcoming slate of anticipated blockbusters, including The Lion King, Frozen II, and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.

Sunday Update: Disney’s current studio weekend estimate for Pixar’s Toy Story 4 is $118.0M. Our full table of Sunday’s studio weekend estimate is at bottom.

Saturday Update: Disney updates this morning with an official Friday estimate of $47.39 million for Pixar’s Toy Story 4, delivering the studio’s third highest opening day in their quarter-century history. This is a very positive start in relative terms for the sequel as strong word of mouth and brand recognition will drive business in the days and weeks ahead — particularly given the lack of animated competition in the near future.

Boxoffice is currently projecting an opening weekend between $115 million and $125 million.

However, the elephant in the room here is the fact that this marks a third consecutive weekend where a top-line new release has under-performed by no small margin (four weekends for those who may want to include May 31’s Godzilla: King of the Monsters). Unlike the past month, though, Toy Story 4 was expected to break the trend thanks not only to its franchise goodwill but incredibly strong reviews and evidence that this would be one June sequel for audiences to largely enjoy.

While that remains true (the film stands at 98 percent on Rotten Tomatoes and 96 percent on the site’s audience rating), this box office performance again underlines the enormous uphill battle franchises face after apparently concluding their stories — something we outlined in our original long range forecast and final pre-weekend analysis, the former of which preceded a dramatic increase in industry forecasts due to bullish tracking and pre-sales reports.

The important takeaway here is that this isn’t an indictment on Toy Story 4 — aside from the fact that Disney may have missed an opportunity by not releasing it on Father’s Day weekend, ala their past four summer films dating back to 2015’s Inside Out. Instead, it’s a reminder that data and tracking will only inform forecasts to a certain level of reliability. Going to the movies is ultimately a psychological choice for the majority of moviegoers that’s exceedingly challenging to measure when no two films are entirely equal.

The blunt possibility this industry must face right now is that if one subscribes to the idea of success breeding success (good movies inspire audiences to go to the cinema more often), then it is also true that failure breeds failure. In other words, perhaps a string of bad sequels makes people increasingly suspicious about the next one, regardless of its own quality and merits.

No, Toy Story 4 is not a failure. Far from it, in fact. It will go on to a leggy domestic and global run. The summer box office is starting to feel the pressure of lofty expectations, though. While early June was a mere appetizer (albeit, one that fell below even conservative expectations) for the rest of a presumed strong summer slate, the season is now in a position where the heart of the slate will need to perform at or near optimistic forecasts over the next six to eight weeks in order to keep not just a potential record summer alive, but the hopes of 2019 to chase down last year’s $11.9 billion domestic record.

On that latter topic, those hopes are now increasingly more reliant upon the second half of the year than they already were a few months ago. Year-to-date sales are down 8 percent versus this time last year (despite several heavy hitters so far), but there’s still time to right the ship. It’s achievable with the slate of blockbusters ahead between now and Christmas, including the likes of Toy Story 4 itself, Spider-Man: Far From Home, The Lion King, Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood, Hobbs & Shaw, It: Chapter 2, Joker, Frozen II, Jumanji 3, and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.

The onus, though, is arguably on studios to deliver quality product at a more consistent rate going forward. Franchise fatigue is real, but it isn’t fatigue from the mere existence of sequels — just the existence of *bad* ones.

Monday’s Weekend Actuals (Domestic)

FRI, JUN. 21 – SUN, JUN. 23

WIDE (1000+) # TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST. 1 Toy Story 4 $120,908,065 — 4,575 — $26,428 $120,908,065 1 Disney 2 Child’s Play $14,094,594 — 3,007 — $4,687 $14,094,594 1 United Artists Releasing 3 Aladdin $13,244,015 -23% 3,435 -121 $3,856 $288,554,143 5 Disney 4 Men in Black: International $10,701,557 -64% 4,224 0 $2,534 $52,641,211 2 Sony / Columbia 5 The Secret Life of Pets 2 $10,270,955 -58% 3,804 -760 $2,700 $117,564,490 3 Universal 6 Rocketman $5,605,936 -40% 2,414 -607 $2,322 $77,284,325 4 Paramount Pictures 7 John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum $4,085,828 -36% 1,607 -426 $2,543 $156,078,252 6 Lionsgate 8 Godzilla: King of the Monsters $3,855,801 -56% 2,368 -839 $1,628 $102,501,438 4 Warner Bros. 9 Anna $3,600,647 — 2,114 — $1,703 $3,600,647 1 Lionsgate / Summit 10 Dark Phoenix $3,532,525 -62% 2,054 -1667 $1,720 $60,091,836 3 Fox 11 Shaft $3,517,443 -60% 2,952 0 $1,192 $15,903,837 2 Warner Bros. 12 Late Night $2,552,444 -51% 2,172 -48 $1,175 $10,641,423 3 Amazon Studios

LIMITED (100 — 999) # TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST. 1 Avengers: Endgame $1,987,849 -47% 985 -465 $2,018 $834,596,815 9 Disney 2 The Dead Don’t Die $1,163,715 -54% 690 77 $1,687 $4,791,630 2 Focus Features 3 Ma (2019) $1,149,475 -69% 862 -932 $1,333 $43,699,240 4 Universal Pictures 4 Booksmart $425,413 -51% 227 -350 $1,874 $20,731,475 5 United Artists Releasing 5 Pavarotti $409,000 85% 135 87 $3,030 $992,088 3 CBS Films 6 POKÉMON Detective Pikachu $370,212 -71% 366 -618 $1,012 $142,030,694 7 Warner Bros. 7 The Biggest Little Farm $164,279 -27% 134 -42 $1,226 $328,558 7 Neon 8 Dumbo $119,146 -17% 140 -10 $851 $114,264,803 13 Walt Disney Pictures 9 Shazam! $117,374 -13% 145 -15 $809 $139,961,290 12 Warner Bros. 10 A Dog’s Journey $109,180 -76% 171 -139 $638 $22,101,130 6 Universal Pictures 11 The Hustle $96,771 -42% 115 -127 $841 $35,106,311 7 United Artists Releasing 12 Captain Marvel $61,074 -45% 145 -16 $421 $426,750,604 16 Disney 13 UglyDolls $43,998 -29% 105 -34 $419 $20,062,588 8 STX Entertainment

PLATFORM (1 — 99) # TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST. 1 The Last Black Man in San Francisco $410,444 8% 72 36 $5,701 $1,339,432 3 A24 2 Echo In the Canyon $252,072 22% 81 13 $3,112 $1,169,296 5 Greenwich Entertainment 3 Brightburn $100,269 -60% 95 -212 $1,055 $17,259,427 5 Sony Pictures 4 The Intruder $68,793 -54% 70 -64 $983 $35,388,976 8 Sony / Screen Gems 5 Wild Rose $52,938 — 4 — $13,235 $52,938 1 Neon 6 The Curse of La Llorona $52,831 -26% 61 -21 $866 $54,658,393 10 Warner Bros. / New Line 7 The Spy Behind Home Plate $50,150 93% 31 6 $1,618 $191,456 5 The Ciesla Foundation 8 Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am $48,050 — 4 — $12,013 $48,050 1 Magnolia Pictures 9 All Is True $46,813 -47% 77 -113 $608 $1,075,681 7 Sony Pictures Classics 10 Breakthrough $38,535 -40% 72 -35 $535 $40,652,899 10 20th Century Fox 11 The Souvenir $31,972 -43% 50 -33 $639 $907,232 6 A24 12 Framing John Delorean $27,172 20% 26 15 $1,045 $78,788 3 IFC Films 13 Non-Fiction $25,071 3% 33 -9 $760 $653,921 8 IFC Films 14 Apollo 11 $24,213 75% 5 0 $4,843 $8,858,805 17 Neon 15 American Woman $20,469 -81% 38 -79 $539 $203,876 2 Roadside Attractions / Vertical Entertainment 16 Chasing the Dragon 2: Wild Wild Bunch $13,896 — 3 — $4,632 $154,476 3 Well Go USA 17 Amazing Grace $12,558 -24% 27 0 $465 $4,378,426 12 Neon 18 The White Crow $11,393 -53% 16 -18 $712 $1,740,284 9 Sony Pictures Classics 19 Paris Is Burning (2019 re-issue) $10,629 -2% 2 1 $5,315 $35,139 2 Janus Films 20 The Quiet One $10,561 — 6 — $1,760 $10,561 1 IFC Films IFC Films 21 Dogman $9,483 790% 8 -2 $1,185 $111,018 11 Magnolia Pictures Magnolia Pictures 22 The Gangster, The Cop, The Devil $9,180 — 5 — $1,836 $197,848 3 Well Go USA Entertainment 23 The Fall of The American Empire $8,535 77% 10 2 $854 $2,797,765 52 Sony Pictures Classics 24 Woodstock: Three Days That Defined a Generation $7,435 -19% 7 -2 $1,062 $72,129 5 PBS Distribution 25 The Reports on Sarah and Saleem $7,332 -27% 3 -1 $2,444 $23,868 2 Dada Films 26 Killer Unicorn $6,980 -55% 4 -1 $1,745 $24,210 2 Indican Pictures 27 In the Aisles $5,963 547% 4 3 $1,491 $7,626 2 Music Box Films 28 Long Day’s Journey Into Night $5,883 24% 5 1 $1,177 $441,915 11 Kino Lorber 29 Before Stonewall $4,588 — 1 — $4,588 $4,588 1 First Run Features 30 The Third Wife $4,448 596% 5 3 $890 $52,879 6 Film Movement 31 Shadow $3,998 — 5 — $800 $495,658 8 Well Go USA Entertainment 32 Walking On Water $3,749 50% 6 2 $625 $78,544 6 Kino Lorber 33 Missing Link $3,313 -39% 15 -11 $221 $16,636,521 11 United Artists Releasing 34 Be Natural: The Untold Story of Alice Guy-Blaché $3,003 79% 4 -1 $751 $62,357 10 Zeitgeist Films 35 War and Peace $2,890 -30% 2 0 $1,445 $121,586 19 Janus Films 36 Christ Stopped at Eboli $2,662 — 1 — $2,662 $45,839 12 Rialto Pictures 37 The Lumber Baron $2,582 65% 2 0 $1,291 $80,887 5 Indican Pictures 38 Funan $1,848 -1% 4 2 $462 $8,520 3 GKIDS 39 Pasolini $1,841 1946% 3 1 $614 $26,157 7 Kino Lorber 40 Hail Satan? $1,741 49% 6 2 $290 $423,177 10 Magnolia Pictures 41 Iyengar: The Man, Yoga, and the Student’s Journey $1,712 359% 2 -1 $856 $131,180 11 Kino Lorber 42 Hesburgh $1,668 1% 2 -1 $834 $193,006 9 mTuckman Media 43 Ask Dr. Ruth $818 -41% 3 -1 $273 $285,884 8 Magnolia Pictures 44 The Church $646 -59% 1 -3 $646 $771,454 5 Indican Pictures 45 Ramen Shop $535 — 2 — $268 $88,287 14 Strand Releasing 46 Yomeddine $424 — 2 — $212 $7,357 4 Strand Releasing 47 Transit $338 — 1 — $338 $815,290 17 Music Box Films 48 Rafiki $335 -70% 3 -1 $112 $132,808 10 Film Movement 49 Diamantino $144 -89% 3 0 $48 $51,804 5 Kino Lorber 50 3 Faces $65 -68% 1 0 $65 $70,301 16 Kino Lorber 51 The Wandering Soap Opera $48 — 1 — $48 $2,007 6 Cinema Guild

Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates (Domestic)

FRI, JUN. 21 – SUN, JUN. 23

WIDE (1000+) # TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST. 1 Toy Story 4 $118,000,000 — 4,575 — $25,792 $118,000,000 1 Disney 2 Child’s Play $14,055,540 — 3,007 — $4,674 $14,055,540 1 United Artists Releasing 3 Aladdin $12,200,000 -30% 3,435 -121 $3,552 $287,510,128 5 Disney 4 Men in Black: International $10,750,000 -64% 4,224 0 $2,545 $52,689,654 2 Sony / Columbia 5 The Secret Life of Pets 2 $10,290,000 -58% 3,804 -760 $2,705 $117,583,535 3 Universal 6 Rocketman $5,650,000 -40% 2,414 -607 $2,341 $77,328,389 4 Paramount Pictures 7 John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum $4,075,000 -36% 1,607 -426 $2,536 $156,067,424 6 Lionsgate 8 Godzilla: King of the Monsters $3,700,000 -58% 2,368 -839 $1,563 $102,345,637 4 Warner Bros. 9 Dark Phoenix $3,600,000 -62% 2,054 -1667 $1,753 $60,159,311 3 Fox 10 Shaft $3,555,000 -60% 2,952 0 $1,204 $15,941,394 2 Warner Bros. 11 Late Night $2,583,885 -51% 2,172 -48 $1,190 $10,672,864 3 Amazon Studios

LIMITED (100 — 999) # TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST. 1 Avengers: Endgame $1,895,000 -49% 985 -465 $1,924 $834,503,966 9 Disney 2 Ma (2019) $1,200,000 -68% 862 -932 $1,392 $43,749,765 4 Universal Pictures 3 Pavarotti $409,000 85% 135 87 $3,030 $992,088 3 CBS Films 4 The Biggest Little Farm $158,800 -30% 134 -42 $1,185 $3,274,141 7 Neon 5 Dumbo $119,000 -17% 140 -10 $850 $114,264,657 13 Walt Disney Pictures 6 A Dog’s Journey $97,000 -79% 171 -139 $567 $22,089,000 6 Universal Pictures 7 Captain Marvel $65,000 -41% 145 -16 $448 $426,754,530 16 Disney

PLATFORM (1 — 99) # TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST. 1 The Last Black Man in San Francisco $413,589 9% 72 36 $5,744 $1,342,577 3 A24 2 Echo In the Canyon $252,072 22% 81 13 $3,112 $1,169,296 5 Greenwich Entertainment 3 Wild Rose $56,183 — 4 — $14,046 $56,183 1 Neon 4 The Spy Behind Home Plate $50,150 93% 31 6 $1,618 $191,456 5 The Ciesla Foundation 5 All Is True $47,730 -46% 77 -113 $620 $1,076,598 7 Sony Pictures Classics 6 Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am $44,000 — 4 — $11,000 $44,000 1 Magnolia Pictures 7 Breakthrough $41,000 -36% 72 -35 $569 $40,655,364 10 20th Century Fox 8 The Souvenir $37,000 -34% 50 -33 $740 $912,260 6 A24 9 Framing John Delorean $27,172 20% 26 15 $1,045 $78,788 3 IFC Films 10 Non-Fiction $25,071 3% 33 -9 $760 $653,921 8 IFC Films 11 Apollo 11 $23,921 73% 5 0 $4,784 $8,858,846 17 Neon 12 American Woman $19,965 -82% 38 -79 $525 $203,372 2 Roadside Attractions / Vertical Entertainment 13 The White Crow $12,039 -50% 16 -18 $752 $1,740,930 9 Sony Pictures Classics 14 Amazing Grace $11,100 -33% 27 0 $411 $4,376,970 12 Neon 15 The Quiet One $10,561 — 6 — $1,760 $10,561 1 IFC Films IFC Films 16 The Fall of The American Empire $8,678 80% 10 2 $868 $2,122,635 52 Sony Pictures Classics 17 Woodstock: Three Days That Defined a Generation $7,435 -19% 7 -2 $1,062 $72,129 5 PBS Distribution

This weekend’s early estimates are below.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)

FRI, JUN. 21 – SUN, JUN. 23

WIDE (1000+) # TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST. 1 Toy Story 4 $120,000,000 — 4,575 — $26,230 $120,000,000 1 Disney 2 Child’s Play $14,400,000 — 3,007 — $4,789 $14,400,000 1 United Artists Releasing 3 Aladdin $12,500,000 -28% 3,435 -121 $3,639 $287,810,128 5 Disney 4 Men in Black: International $11,000,000 -63% 4,224 0 $2,604 $52,939,654 2 Sony / Columbia 5 The Secret Life of Pets 2 $10,900,000 -55% 3,804 -760 $2,865 $118,193,535 3 Universal 6 Rocketman $5,900,000 -37% 2,414 -607 $2,444 $77,578,389 4 Paramount Pictures 7 Godzilla: King of the Monsters $3,900,000 -56% 2,368 -839 $1,647 $3,900,098 4 Warner Bros. 8 John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum $3,800,000 -41% 1,607 -426 $2,365 $155,792,424 6 Lionsgate 9 Dark Phoenix $3,700,000 -60% 2,054 -1667 $1,801 $60,259,311 3 Fox 10 Anna $3,600,000 — 2,114 — $1,703 $3,600,000 1 Lionsgate / Summit 11 Shaft $3,400,000 -62% 2,952 0 $1,152 $15,786,394 2 Warner Bros. 12 Late Night $2,600,000 -51% 2,172 -48 $1,197 $10,688,979 3 Amazon Studios

LIMITED (100 — 999) # TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST. 1 Avengers: Endgame $2,000,000 -46% 985 -465 $2,030 $834,608,966 9 Disney 2 Ma (2019) $1,100,000 -70% 862 -932 $1,276 $43,649,765 4 Universal Pictures 3 The Dead Don’t Die $1,100,000 -57% 690 77 $1,594 $4,727,915 2 Focus Features 4 Dumbo $108,000 -25% 140 -10 $771 $114,253,657 13 Walt Disney Pictures 5 Captain Marvel $64,000 -42% 145 -16 $441 $426,753,530 16 Disney

PLATFORM (1 — 99) # TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST. 1 Breakthrough $42,000 -34% 72 -35 $583 $40,656,364 10 20th Century Fox

Friday Morning Update: Disney reports this morning that Toy Story 4 kicked off with an excellent $12 million start Thursday night, including shows that began with 5pm fan events and 6pm general screenings. That claims the second highest Thursday opening of all-time for an animated movie, topping the $9.2 million of Finding Dory three summers ago, while coming in behind last year’s Incredibles 2 ($18.5 million) — the standing record for an animated film. Those two films opened to $182.7 million and $135.1 million domestic weekends, respectively.

The Child’s Play remake is off to a strong start in its own right with an estimated $1.65 million from last night’s first shows. That bests Ma‘s $1.4 million kick-off a few weeks ago, while registering 28 percent behind Pet Sematary‘s $2.3 million start earlier this year.

Meanwhile, Anna took in a reported $325K from an estimated 1,700 locations last night — half the amount of Miss Bala ($650K) earlier this year and 17 percent lower than 2016’s Mechanic: Resurrection ($390K).

Read our earlier weekend forecast in this report. More updates to follow throughout the weekend.