Against this backdrop, it’s uncertain whether the United States or its European allies will be able to share with Mexico the lessons they’ve learned from their own election experiences, let alone with the long roster of Latin American countries holding national elections this year, including Colombia, Brazil, Venezuela, Costa Rica, and Paraguay. But unless countries like Mexico confront election-related vulnerabilities and the manipulation of voters through fake news and propaganda, the democratic process will be at risk.

Why would Russia choose to meddle with Mexico? For one thing, Moscow seeks to project itself as a great power. It likely sees Mexico’s election as an opportunity to reciprocate for what it perceives as Washington’s long history of meddling in the internal political of former Soviet states. Interfering in the Mexican election is also an easy way for Russia to cast itself as an equal to the United States—to show that it’s no mere regional power, to borrow from Barack Obama’s unfortunate phrasing.

By now, Russia also knows that effective influence campaigns require eager audiences—which, thanks in part to Trump, it’s likely to find in Mexico. According to a 2017 Pew survey, 65 percent of Mexicans express a negative opinion of the United States, more than double the share two years ago. This downturn in relations has strengthened the resolve of Mexican political and economic elites to diversify their country’s foreign policy and trade relationships, given the damage Trump has done to America’s image as a reliable partner. Taken together, this anti-American animus and white-hot anger inside the electorate about a soaring crime rate, Mexico’s failed war on drugs, and endemic corruption help make Mexican audiences amenable to the kind of reports that are dished out 24/7 by the Spanish language arms of Russia’s sprawling propaganda apparatus.

What, then, are the initial signs of a Moscow-directed interference campaign? First, its use of its own state-controlled media to deliver messages that are in favor of a candidate, or that seek to exploit existing divisions within a population, including by fear-mongering about alleged U.S. designs on Latin America. In Mexico, Russia’s state-controlled RT media network has been broadcasting Spanish language programming favorable to populist frontrunner Lopez Obrador since 2016. One of the most curious elements of this pro-AMLO onslaught is “The Battle for Mexico,” an RT video blog hosted by a Mexico City-based American law professor named John Ackerman. Recently, Lopez Obrador named Irma Sandoval, Ackerman’s wife, as a future cabinet member in charge of fighting corruption.

Moscow likely views Lopez Obrador as a potential ally, based on his conservative stance on values issues like same-sex marriage and abortion and nationalist, anti-American rhetoric. By devoting propaganda resources to AMLO, Moscow likely hopes to ensure that a divisive and anti-U.S. candidate wins the presidency, and that it can curry favor with him once he is in office. Other state-run Russian outlets, such as Sputnik, broadcast programing with anti-U.S. narratives, and there are early indications that a significant percentage of pro-AMLO social media activity surrounding the campaign may be emanating from Russia. (Nearly 60 percent of Mexicans have internet access or are active on social media.)