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From the keyboard of Surly1

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Originally published on the Doomstead Diner on January 3, 2020

Conrad Brean: "You watched the Gulf War, what do you see day after day? The one smart bomb falling down the chimney. The truth? I was in the building when we shot that shot – we shot in a studio, Falls Church, Virginia. One-tenth scale model of a building."

– Stanley Motss: '"Is that true?"

– Conrad Brean: "How the fuck do we know? You take my point?”

― From Wag the Dog, 1997 film

On Thursday night, Trump ordered the assassination of Major General Qassim Suleimani, a top commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, without any notification nor authorization from Congress, . The drone strike also killed four others outside Baghdad’s international airport. To attempt to put this in context, imagine China or North Korea assassinating the US Joint Chief of Staff outside the airport in Mexico City. Trump is pushing us to the brink of unnecessary war. When Trump entered office in 2016, he inherited one of the best chances in decades the US has had for peaceful relations with Iran. Three years later, with a cabinet full of ideologues and warmongers, he’s torn up a treaty and is now assassinating Iranian leaders.

To review the bidding: in the last few days, an Iranian-backed militia fired rockets at a base in Kirkuk Province, killing an American contractor and wounding several American servicemembers. The U.S. responded with air strikes that killed about two dozen militia members. Thousands of pro-militia protesters marched on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, trapping diplomats inside, vandalizing the compound, and burning part of it before dispersing. Trump promised Iran would “be held fully responsible” for the attack on the embassy, and made good on Friday.

The irony of an airstrike triggered in itself by another, different US airstrike is lost on everyone, especially in the corporate media. Trumpsuckers and other members of #TeamTreason will call this a defensive action, and will bleat the usual syllables. The idea that this strike will prevent future attacks on Americans and our interests around the world defies any recognizable logic.

If anything, our risk just went up manyfold. Pay attention to your corporate media in the coming days: Watch and listen how the same voices who sold the disastrous Iraq War will squat and squeeze out hot takes about how this was a "critical defensive action." It's such a defensive action that we are drop-shipping another 3500 soldiers to the Middle East: 3,500 additional U.S.. troops headed to Mideast as Iran threatens retaliation.

This is possible because Congress let it happen, because Congress has ceded authority over the military to the Executive Branch over several decades and administrations. Congress needs to reassert its constitutional authority, but is unlikely to do so any time soon..

With nothing more than an empty statement from the Pentagon and a tweet of an American flag, Trump is transparently and unequivocally Wagging the Dog and gambling with the safety of every Americans he pulls us to the brink of war with Iran. Now begins the speculation as to why. For a clue, consider Fat Orange's own body of work:

The strike was a reckless move by Trump — no one is remotely prepared for this kind of escalation with Iran. Fat Orange has unilaterally taken action that will result in war, almost certainly to distract from being impeached. Now Cadet Bone Spurs will anoint himself a "wartime president™." How long before he wears a field marshal's uniform?

As predicted, IN SO MANY WORDS, on the Doomstead Diner blog and forum: The Year in Doom 2019, and on GEI, where John Lounsbury had the good sense to break it into two parts: The Great Culling: They Don't Give a Flying Fuck About You

I am among those who think that launching a gratuitous, meat-grinder war in spring of 2020 to self-anoint as a "wartime president™" is completely within Fat Orange's capability. It may already be part of his campaign plan, given the sheer evil of his administration ands the need to change the subject from impeachment.

For me here is the money shot:

If The Donald gets us into a big shooting war over in the Middle East or in the South China Sea, the mandatory servitude of conscription will be required. It won’t be a turkey shoot like Iraq or Libya. It will be an existential threat, so all males —criminally inclined or not — between 16 and 45 will be inducted, same as they were after FDR tricked the Japanese into invading Pearl Harbor, or Johnson said the North Vietnamese attacked our warships in the Gulf of Tonkin.

Who is going to rushing to enlist to fight a war for Iranian oil? Hard to imagine even a generation of red state deplorables tearing themselves away from game consoles and meth pipes to do that.



A brief historical discursion: most of us don't realize (because we weren't taught) that the Roman Empire continued in force until 1453 via the Eastern Empire at Constantinople. It was the only organized state west of China to survive without interruption from ancient times until the beginning of the modern age. These people, who largely spoke Greek after the seventh century, called themselves "Romans" and called their realm "Romania." For them they were the Roman Empire.

Like most empires, its borders ebbed and flowed depending upon the competence of the emperors, the military, and blind luck. (Plague was always a wild card.) In the 6th century, Justinian had recovered the west though Italy and North Africa, and east through Anatolia and the eastern Mediterranean. Who stopped their expansion eastward? The Persians.

Likewise, in the 8th century, Islam spread like a wildfire thought the Middle East and Africa. This gave rise to the creation of the caliphates, occupying a vast geographical area. The Ummayads were based in Syria and Damascus was their capital. Know who put the end to their rule in the eighth century? The Persians.

Anyone who thinks that Iran is going to do an "el foldo" like Saddam Hussein did in Iraq is sadly mistaken. Unlike Iraq, which was cobbled together via the Balfour declaration and held together by Saddam's brutality, Iran has a long, continuous history as a people and are not going to be exterminated quietly. Since Iran is surrounded by American bases, the outcome will never be much in doubt, but the costs will be extreme and the fighting scorched earth. Victory will be had, at the cost of your last grandson or granddaughter, so there is little doubt that Uncle Cracker will be looking for fresh meat.

I for one will be delighted to see Donzo Jr, Eric, Jared, Ivanka and Tiffany all leading the assault from the front lines. Let's also recruit the failsons of the One Percent to help lead the charge..

Michael Moore posted this on Facebook:

Hello fellow Americans. Do you know this man? Did you know he was your enemy? What? Never heard of him? By the end of today you will be trained to hate him. You will be glad Trump had him assassinated. You will do as you are told. Sit! Fetch! Jump! Get ready to die on your plane ride back home from the holidays. Get ready to send your sons and daughters to die in a new war. War makes the rich richer. War is good. War is a necessary distraction. War is peace. Trump is our Commander! Happy New Decade. It won’t be long now. Shhhh…sleep…there was no collusion…it was a perfect call…I just shot a man on 5th Avenue just because I can…I’m sorry, but due to this national emergency we’ve had to postpone the election…

As of Friday morning, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, promised “a forceful revenge awaits the criminals who have his blood and the blood of the other martyrs last night on their hands.” What form that takes is anyone's guess. Meanwhile, reports say Iraq descends into chaos. It is possible Iraq could ask the U.S. to withdraw its forces. That would be a setback for both the Trump administration’s effort to pressure Iran militarily, and the continuing effort to contain ISIS. Oh yeah, them. As of right now, given the Trump "administration's" contempt for traditional diplomacy, no one can predict the broader consequences of a profound escalation in U.S.-Iranian hostilities.

Surly1 is an administrator and contributing author to Doomstead Diner. He is the author of numerous rants, screeds and spittle-flecked invective here and elsewhere. He lives a quiet domestic existence in Southeastern Virginia with his wife Contrary. Descended from a long line of people to whom one could never tell anything, all opinions are his and his alone, because he paid full retail for everything he has managed to learn.