I don’t think anyone would disagree that the Houston Astros have grossly underperformed their expectations as they approach the quarter pole this season. There is still a ton of baseball to be played, but if they don’t pick up some ground on the Rangers and Mariners in the next few weeks, it might be time to see the next wave of the future. Hell, they might want to do this just to give the team a shot in the arm. Dynasty owners are beginning to lick their chops at what might develop in Houston over the next few months.

The Pitchers

I want to briefly touch on the pitching before we focus in on the young hitters that make an impact at some point this season. The the four primary starters this season (7 or more starts) all have an ERA and FIP over 4 this season. This includes the reigning AL Cy Young winner whose ERA is north of 5 and WHIP is north of 1.500. Will this turn around? The Astros’ season likely depends on it. My colleague here at Major League Fantasy Sports, Kyle Amore, wrote a sabermetric analysis of what might be ailing Keuchel. I highly recommend checking it out. Fortunately, help is on the way in the form of young hurler, Lance McCullers. His first start on the year last weekend was rough, but he should give the beleaguered rotation a boost. Chris Devenski has been a nice story and has been the most effective starter this season, but it appears the Astros would rather him play the “long man” role out of the bullpen. This does suit his skill set better as a long-term role in the rotation could have exposed him as “command only” pitcher. Bad news for dynasty owners, I don’t really see any pitching prospects making the leap to the Majors this season.

Joe Musgrove SP

The only significant pitching prospect with a chance is Joe Musgrove who was just promoted to AAA, Corpus Christi. After four starts in AA this season, he had an impressive 0.34 ERA, 1.77 FIP and 26.5% K-BB rate. He has a borderline plus fastball that he commands with movement. His slider is decent but can be deceiving to batters as it mimics his fastball until it’s too late. He has dealt with injuries throughout his career, but if he stays healthy and continues to command his fastball and slider, Houston may not have a choice but to bring him up later this summer to try to salvage the season. Most likely they stick with the rotation plan in place now.

Dallas Keuchel Colin McHugh Doug Fister Lance McCullers Mike Fiers Scott Feldman (spot starter/long man) Chris Devenski (spot starter/long man)

The Hitters

Now here is where things may get a little interesting. Due to the team’s slow start, injuries and general ineffectiveness at the plate, there has already been some roster shake-up AND there should be more to come. First the issues…

Carlos Gomez has been terrible and is now injured

3B has been a black hole

Preston Tucker has been terrible and got sent down

Tyler White was off to a fast start but has tailed off

Team K rate is 25.5% (last in the AL)

As a result, the club has made some strategic decisions and called up some young blood. This is likely on the beginning as there may be even more dynamic prospects on the way. Here are some dynasty assets to watch for…

*All stats courtesy of Fangraphs

Tony Kemp 2B/OF

Tony has just made his MLB debut this week. The Astros brought him up to hopefully give a spark.

Tony was primarily a 2B, but with Altuve developing into one of the best (if not the best) 2B in the Majors, the organization shifted him to the OF to give him a clearer path to playing time. I would expect to see him playing in either LF or CF against righties (platooning with Marisnick) and be a regular pinch runner on days he doesn’t start.

Kemp can give you a boost in OBP, SB and extra-base hits without a ton of strikeouts. I think he can carve out a nice role on this team and once Gomez comes back, he should force Marisnick down and take over the primary 4th OF spot. He is worth a roster spot in 12+ team leagues and worth starting in FLEX spots in 14-16 team leagues. Large format dynasty leagues likely already had him rostered, but he would be a nice asset to acquire especially in category leagues.

Colin Moran 3B/DH

Moran was also called up this week. With Gomez going on the DL, they used the opportunity to bring up the former #6 overall pick of the 2013 rule 4 amateur draft.

I thought this was a reach back in 2013 when Miami made the pick because he didn’t really have any elite tools. He has pretty much developed into exactly what I thought he would be. In four minor league seasons he has hovered around .300 avg. and .350 OBP. He doesn’t walk enough to get me excited and doesn’t strikeout enough to be a determinant. Unfortunately, he hasn’t really developed any significant game power or run-producing abilities. His tool set does not profile as a 3B, but his defense is limited and likely not going to be able to play anywhere else.

The truth is this is not a bad move for Astros. Marwin Gonzalez has been ok, but nicked up. Luis Valbuena has been awful. Now with Gattis catching once or twice a week, there will be some opportunity to DH. Getting Gattis back behind the plate may spark something in him and he brings a fresh look and goes on a little run. At minimum these moves can lengthen the Astros’ lineup. On the other hand, It could be a nice audition for a deadline trade of Moran. He is not a long-term solution at 3B, but worth rostering in deeper leagues. I can’t recommend starting him at this time. I would take a wait and see approach.

A.J. Reed 1B

I was all over Reed in the pre-season and had him as my #1 prospect at 1B going into the season. He was off to a slow start, but I still see him as the top 1B prospect and a chance to make a splash in Houston this Summer.

2015 was a breakout season for Reed. He launched himself into all the prospect rankings lists this off-season. His plus power could translate to 30 HRs in a full season and although his hit tool is average to slightly above average, he has shown he could hit for average at nearly every level (except his current one, AAA). He had a slow start but began heating up before a hamstring put him on the minors DL. This could be a blessing for Houston as it give them more excuse to keep him in AAA until the Super Two deadline passes in late June. Unless injuries continue to plague his season, he should see Houston this Summer. Even while “struggling” at AAA, he has been driving runs with a .229 ISO. There should be some correction coming considering a .243 BABIP.

Reed should be rostered in all dynasty leagues and should be on the radar to be scooped up in redrafts immediately upon RUMORS of his call up. He does strikeout about 20%, but I’ll take that any day from a power hitter that can get on base. Look for him to debut sometime shortly after the All-Star break.

Alex Bregman 3B/SS

…and saving the best for last! The truth is that I had A.J. Reed comfortably at the top of the Astros’ Organizational prospect list for 2016. I had Bregman below due to Reeds power and proximity to the Majors. He was the 2nd overall pick in this past season’s amatuer draft and, although arguably the most polished bat in the draft, most would imagine a year or two learning the pro ball game would be necessary for his development. Finally, he was blocked by Correa at his primary and natural position.

Season Team G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ 2015 Astros (A) 29 133 1 18 13 5 12.8 % 9.8 % .071 .283 .259 .368 .330 .333 108 2015 Astros (A+) 37 178 3 19 21 8 6.7 % 9.6 % .156 .336 .319 .364 .475 .366 126 2016 Astros (AA) 26 116 9 25 26 3 12.9 % 7.8 % .361 .291 .330 .435 .691 .483 211

As you can see by the stats, Bregman has raked since entering pro ball last Summer. Three things stand out to me that make me believe he could hit big league pitching right now.

He walks more than he strikes out…and it is not close. When you walk nearly 13% of your plate appearances and strike out less than 8%, You are doing something right. This is being done at the AA level where arguably the best competition in the minor leagues resides. His actual batting average is nearly 40 points HIGHER than his BABIP. This indicates the production is not lucky and he is legitimately crushing AA pitching. His power is developing more at each level. .361 ISO and .691 SLG

Prior to the season, I would have said there is no chance he makes Houston this year. GM Jeff Luhnow has a history of making intentional moves that are several steps ahead of the present. Ultimately, he profiles better at his natural shortstop position and Carlos Correa better at the hot corner. Houston does not want to move Correa at this point in his career (although eventually I believe they will), Bregman has shown them enough, that they needed to clear a path for him and sooner rather than later. He has been officially moved over to 3B and getting regular reps there at AA. I give him approximately two weeks before he’s promoted to AAA. If Houston is within striking distance of the playoffs come trade deadline, he gets the call. Moran gets traded, Marwin Gonzalez goes to super-utility role, Valbuena gets DFA’d and the infield of the future becomes now…

1B — Reed

2B — Altuve

SS — Correa

3B — Bregman

I know they are young, but that’s what they said about the Cubs last year. Even if they fall short of the playoffs this season, this gives the all a chance to work out the kinks and build chemistry. 2017 kicks off with them all on the Opening Day lineup and they are ALL under club control through a minimum of 2019.

Once he goes up to AAA, you may want to stash him if you have the roster spot. It may be your last chance in keeper leagues. The slow start by the team, may have pushed up the timelines of some of these prospects.

Bryan Luhrs

Major League Fantasy Sports

Writer & Contributor

Real Deal Dynasty Sports

Owner, League Developer & Executive Commissioner

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(Click the RED link below to listen)

Major League Fantasy Baseball Show: Join Corey D Roberts on Sunday May 22nd, 2016 from 7-9pm EST for this week’s episode of the Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio Show. We are a live call in radio show so we encourage callers at 323-870-4395 . Press 1 to speak with the host. Every week we will do a quick recap of Fr-Sat games, and a forecast of Monday through Thursday’s games.

Our guests this week are Lenny Melnick and Zak Sauer. Lenny Melnick is a fantasy baseball legend and a pioneer in the business. He is credited with starting the very first fantasy baseball show in 1993 along with Irwin Zwilling and Sandy Stolle. He also has a website which you can find at lennymelnickfantasysports.com where you can find all his work, and it is a great overall free community. Zak is a writer with majorleaguefantasysports.com, a co-host of our Saturday football shows starting June 4th, and the co-host of Sports Buffet’s radio show “Sports Talk” every Monday with Lou Landers.

“You can find our shows on I-Tunes. Just search for Major League Fantasy Sports in the podcasts section. For Android users go to “Podcast Republic,” then download that app, and search for “Major League Fantasy Sports Show”

________________________________________________________________________

(Click the Red link below to listen)

Major League Fantasy Baseball Weekly: Join Lou Landers and Kyle Amore live on Thursday May 19th, 2016 from 8-10pm EST for episode #14 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Weekly. This will run every Thursday as a live broadcast that will take live callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. Our Thursday night show will do some weekly recaps, player updates, and preview the coming week-end games.

Our guests this week are Hernan Batista and Bryan Luhrs. Bryan is the owner of Real Deal Dynasty Sports, a writer with MLFS, and a key member of our organization. Hernan is a frequent guest on our radio shows and an owner in MLFB1 and MLFB2.

You can find our shows on I-Tunes. Just search for Major League Fantasy Sports in the podcasts section. For Android users go to “Podcast Republic,” then download that app, and search for “Major League Fantasy Sports Show”

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