The Mets’ offseason appears to be done now with the signing of Alejandro De Aza to be a platoon center fielder. It seems eminently fair to say that the fan base is less than thrilled with this signing in particular and the offseason in general. As for me, this move is fine in isolation, much like every other move executed this offseason. But somehow the whole is less than the sum of its parts and the most disturbing thing is a continuing pattern of paying a premium for veteran outsiders instead of giving a chance to people from your own system.

Perhaps De Aza will turn back the clock to 2012, when he had a .281/.349/.410 line. Or maybe he will replicate his career line versus RHP, whom he’s hit to a .274/.338/.418 tune. We just hope he does better than other Sandy Alderson imports to play the outfield. We think about Michael Cuddyer and both the money and first-round pick the club forfeited for a replacement player. Or John Mayberry Jr. and his (-0.3) fWAR for the Mets last year. Or Chris Young and his (-0.7) fWAR. Or Bobby Abreu and his (-0.4) mark. Or Rick Ankiel and his (-0.2) rate. That’s enough to make Andres Torres and his 1.4 fWAR look like a stud.

Let’s look at some projections for De Aza. Here are the two that are available right now:

Marcel – .256/.319/.399

Steamer – .255/.317/.389

They both forecast the exact same player. That guy is a below-average center fielder but one likely to be worth his $5.75 million base salary. It’s not an exciting move but it’s one that in isolation which is not really a problem.

The issue is that they are paying 10 times what they would pay for someone from within their own system and they’re not going to get 10 times the production. Kirk Nieuwenhuis has a Steamer projection of an 88 wRC+ compared to the 93 wRC+ for De Aza. And it’s likely that Nieuwenhuis is a better defensive center fielder than De Aza.

Or how about these projections?

Marcel – .250/.321/.389

Steamer – .261/.317/.399 (95 wRC+)

Those are the forecasts for Matt den Dekker, who also is likely a better defensive CFer than De Aza. But the Mets are so unbelievably reluctant to give their own guys a shot that they’d rather pay a hefty premium, in this case 10 times the amount, than consider an in-house option. It would be one thing if money wasn’t an option. But clearly there’s a large amount of attention paid to the bottom line. Still, here’s the reality:

There’s roughly $5 million more being paid to a platoon CF to avoid playing Nieuwenhuis

There’s roughly $10 million more being paid at 2B to avoid playing Dilson Herrera

There’s roughly $7.75 million more being paid at SS to avoid playing Wilmer Flores

There’s roughly 6.75 million more being paid at SP to avoid playing Logan Verrett

That’s roughly $29.5 million that could be allocated elsewhere and that’s not even taking into account the contracts given to Addison Reed and Jerry Blevins in the bullpen which could be used for other purposes. That’s how much the Mets are paying, in 2016 alone, to avoid giving a shot to guys from their system.

One can argue that no one knows the young guys who grew up in the system better than the Mets, so if they saw fit to give the jobs to someone else, we should trust their judgment. Yet these are the same people who gave money and playing times to the outfielders listed in the second paragraph, so why should the fans give them a rubber stamp of approval on their player evaluation skills? At this point, I place more trust in the computer forecasts than this front office when it comes to picking players for the major league roster.

It’s reasonable to believe that the combination of Asdrubal Cabrera, Bartolo Colon, De Aza and Neil Walker would out-produce the combination of Flores, Herrera, Nieuwenhuis and Verrett. But is it reasonable to think that the four veterans would be better than the four farm system guys and a big bat, let’s say Jason Heyward? Because that’s what the Mets are saying with their actions.

The counter may be that the salaries from the real additions are only for one or two years while the salary for a Heyward would be eight or so years. That’s true enough. But why should we believe that the team won’t continue to import higher salary veterans rather than play minimum wage guys from their farm system?

We’ve seen Alderson bring in Cuddyer rather than give den Dekker a shot. The money alone made that a bad choice but the forfeiture of a draft pick made it a disaster. And because they sent den Dekker packing, they had to shell out additional money to acquire an older guy for this year. And in 2017 they’ll be in the same boat, unless they’re willing to give Brandon Nimmo a shot. Lather, rinse, repeat with veteran one or two-year stop-gaps that don’t work.

But we’re supposed to feel good because it’s a short-term deal that doesn’t go past the $100 million boogeyman. Maybe you don’t give an 8-year, $138 million deal for a guy entering his age 30 season. But you can give that length to a guy coming into his age 26 season. But wait, Alderson did give out the former contract and balked at the latter.

We all know that the owners are drowning in a sea of debt and will not carry a New York payroll. The reaction from fans is that somehow that the Wilpons are morally obligated to sell the team if they don’t have a payroll equivalent to the Yankees. That argument makes no sense to me. Instead of blasting them for not carrying a big payroll, blast them and their management team for not doing a better job of allocating their available budget.

When you stop paying $29 million to replicate what’s already on hand and stop shelling out $4 million for a LOOGY to pitch 35 innings, you’ll be amazed at what you can afford. All you have to do is show faith in guys that come from your system and aren’t on the wrong side of 30. Not every youngster is going to turn out the way that you hoped. Not every veteran does, either. For every Marlon Byrd veteran acquisition that we can celebrate, there are too many Cuddyer, Mayberry, Young, Abreu, Ankiel and Torres ones to make us retch.

Yet somehow it’s the young guys we’re not supposed to trust.

Share this: Email

Facebook

Print

Reddit

Twitter

More

Pinterest

LinkedIn



Tumblr

