Turnbull govt proposes carbon tax on new cars to keep old cars on the road and increase pollution

Showing an uncanny knack to do exactly the wrong thing in an expensive way and with prosaic timing, the Turnbull government is apparently considering using Australian cars to control the climate. As a nation of die-hard car heads with the lowest population density in the world and award winning high prices for electricity, we qualify as the last advanced nation on Earth who should go “electric”.

Currently, EV’s are so rare here, we have one for every 1,750 square kilometers. Don’t be fooled by the Australian continent’s map of charging points. Each charging point is scaled up to approx 14,000 times its real size.

The day after Trump was elected on a vow to quash Paris, we signed up, now as the US winds back emissions rules, Turnbull wants to ramp them up:

The Australian, Ben Packham and Remy Varga

The car industry has warned that some of Australia’s most popular cars will be taken off the market, or face significant price hikes, under tough carbon-emissions standards being actively considered by the Turnbull government.

The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries said the Toyota Hilux and Ford Ranger, the ­nation’s top-selling cars last year, would be among those at risk under proposed emissions rules, similar to those abandoned by US President Donald Trump.

How many storms will we stop with this?

There are 1.2 billion cars in the world, and Australian drive 1.5% of them. We have a 19 million strong car fleet, and Minister Frydenberg predicts an electric vehicle “revolution” with “more than one million EVs on Australian roads by 2030″. Sure. We have all of 4,000 EVs now. That’s the entire national tally.

Only 996,000 new EV’s to go.

Australians love their big cars. And only 2 of the top 20 sellers would pass the proposed 105 g CO2/km limit. But that’s ok, because the rules will only apply to new cars, which means more people will keep driving the old ones. Too bad if you own a new car sales yard. Too bad if you wanted to reduce CO2.

More than 500,000 SUVs, four-wheel-drives and large utes were sold in Australia last year. None would meet the proposed new standard.

Compliance cost estimates: $2 billion pa

According to a regulatory ­impact statement prepared by the Department of Infrastructure, Regional Development and Cities, the average annual cost for those required to comply with the policy would be more than $2bn a year. If the government opted for a softer target of 119gCO2/km, the compliance burden would fall to about $1.4bn.

And the rest…!

UPDATE: From commenter TdeF: … the CO2 limit of 106g/km translates into a petrol limit of 4.6litres/100km. This eliminates even the smallest lightest 4 cylinder Toyotas. Clearly the only way to meet this limit is for hybrid or electric cars, of any weight. According to this standard all electric cars pass, no matter how heavy. That is not true however. If we assume deceleration costs nothing, energy costs vary directly with vehicle weight and all energy costs translate directly into CO2. So this is once again an anti Fossil fuel limit. Consider that in Australia today is that 90% of all power is coal. The wind and solar are name plate, sometimes of zero value. So how much CO2 in g/km does a Tesla S generate with a 65kwhr battery in Australia today? 60KwHr and a rage of 350km. Firstly coal produces 1kg of CO2 per kwhr, and add 5% for distribution losses and the Tesla S generates 70kg of CO2 at the power stations in 350km. This is 200g/km. Ban Electric cars!

Lets pay more to increase emissions?

But EV’s were never much good at reducing CO2 unless you live in France, where they have nuclear power. A Norweigan study found EV’s were worse than useless in countries where electricity was made from, you guessed it, coal. In China, which is powered by 65% coal, one study estimated EV’s produce 50% more CO2 than gas guzzlers. (Not that there is anything wrong with that, by why pay more for it?). Australia, of course is even more dependent on coal than China is with our grid being 73% coal fired. These are coal fired cars.

Let’s pay more to raise the price of electricity and gas, and ruin the grid?

Let’s pay more to pay more. The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) estimates that each new EV could add $2,000 a year to the cost of infrastructure and generation. At the moment that will be paid for by people who mostly don’t own electric cars. Often-times the same people who are paying for other people’s solar panels and other people’s wind farms.

And if people get the new fat-batteries that supercharge nice and fast with 50kW chargers, each new car will be like adding 20 new houses on the grid. Just what we need.

Sell this as a “Win” for consumers?

This will save Australians money, but not the way the Minister thinks.

Cities Minister Paul Fletcher, who is leading the government’s Ministerial Forum on Vehicle Emissions with Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg, said the government was yet to finalise the policy, but “any decision will place ­savings for Australians front and centre”.

“Under a fuel efficiency standard, the average motorist in Australia could save up to $500 a year in fuel costs,” he said.

The average motorist will save thousands by holding onto their old cars, or by buying second hand cars, and mostly from ex-government agencies which are still “rich” enough to afford aquiring the new ones.

Even without a fuel efficiency standard the average motorist is free, as far as I know, to buy cars with better fuel economy, and mostly they don’t.

After 2.5 years of development, this is all they have?

Apparently the development team has been working for 30 months on this plan.

Carmakers would be forced to meet the target as the average emission level of all vehicles they sell in Australia, or face fines for breaching the limit.

To sell cars such as the Hilux and Ranger, which typically emit more than 260gCO2/km, manufacturers would have to sell more electric vehicles and hybrids. The Toyota Corolla, which is leading vehicle sales this year, emits 96gCO2/km in its hybrid electric form, while the 1.8-litre petrol version emits 159gCO2/km, the Green Vehicle Guide says.

Bureaucrats looking for a tooth fairy:

It’s understood energy bureaucrats are continuing to model the 105gCO2/km target under different EV uptake scenarios to come up with a policy that will have no theoretical impact on prices and won’t force drivers to switch cars.

The only good news, the damage might not start til 2025. Then Australians will have to buy 200,000 EV’s a year to meet the target.

Yet another climate-change czar,

Wants a carbon-tax, on each new car,

To stop droughts, hurricanes,

Heatwaves, extreme rains,

And flash flooding in Kandahar.

__ Ruairi

Image: Toyota Klugar, Fremantle, EurovisionNim

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