AMMAN — Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is likely to survive his country’s uprising thanks to the army’s loyalty and the world’s muted response to the bloody crackdown on protests, analysts say.

“The international community is cautious in its response to the actions of the Syrian regime, which apparently has won the first round of the battle through bloodshed,” a Syrian analyst in Amman told AFP on condition of anonymity.

“Israel is satisfied with the status quo with the Syrian regime and the United States needs Syria because it has an influence on the Sunni resistance in Iraq and because it is a key link between Washington and Tehran in issues related to Iraq.”

Abu Adham, a Syrian dissident who has lived in Jordan since 1996 after imprisonment in his country from 1986 to 1991, meanwhile slammed the international community.

“World powers are lethargic when it comes to Syria because they do not want to see chaos on the doorsteps of Israel, which enjoys the most secure borders with Syria since the establishment of a demilitarised border zone in 1974.”

“It seems that Bashar Assad is currently wining but I hope that the Syrian people will win in the end. The people and regime have reached a point of no return.”

According to human rights groups, more than 600 people have been killed and 8,000 have been jailed or gone missing across Syria in eight weeks of protests.

In response to the heavy-handed crackdown on dissent, world powers have imposed some measures and sanction against the regime and key figures, although they have so far not targeted Assad.

But his younger brother, Maher al-Assad, headed a list Tuesday of 13 Syrian officials subjected to European Union sanctions for their roles in violence against protesters.

The officials are hit by visa bans and assets freezes and the 27-nation also imposed an arms embargo and ban on equipment that can be used for internal repression.

On Friday the United States warned it would take “additional steps” against Syria if it continues a brutal crackdown on protesters, a week after imposing tough sanctions on the Arab nation.

Meanwhile a senior Syrian government official told The New York Times she believes the uprising is under control.

“I hope we are witnessing the end of the story,” Bouthaina Shaaban, an adviser to Assad who often serves as a spokeswoman, said in an interview published Monday by the US paper.

“I think now we’ve passed the most dangerous moment,” she added.

Jordanian analyst Nahed Hattar, an expert in Syrian issues, said the regime has overcome internal power struggles.

“Now there are no fears of divisions between the president’s aides, who wanted a political solution, and the security team, led by his brother Maher and intelligence chief Ali Mamluk, who favoured the muscled approach,” he said.

The Syrian analyst and Abu Adham agreed.

“Bashar Assad is only a spokesman. The army, the backbone of the regime, has taken over and will not wear kid gloves to crush the protests.”

Abu Adham said the regime fully controls the army.

“Maher al-Assad heads the Republican Guard and the army’s Fourth Division — which represents one third of the army. They are well-equipped, unlike the rest of the army,” he said.

“We had hopes that the army would remain neutral. Unfortunately this was not the case and the defections were only a few isolated cases,” said Abu Adham.

He also criticised Arab regimes saying they are “afraid to talk about the events in Syria knowing that they themselves could face similar uprisings.”

Hattar said “things in Syria have taken a sectarian turn.”

“Religious minorities and secular groups who supported the protesters in the beginning now back the regime because of a series of sectarian incidents,” he said.

He pointed to anti-Christian slogans heard in the southern flashpoint town of Daraa and said that some Christians were killed after their identity cards were checked.

Abu Adham claimed the authorities “fabricated sectarian incidents”, saying such tactics “have been used before by the regime.”

The Syrian analyst believed that “the regime has survived so far from a tactical point of view. But it will emerge weak and isolated.”

“To survive, it must make changes, pick liberal personalities, hold security people responsible for the killing of protesters and give concessions to Israel to win the satisfaction of the United States.”