Lawmakers will raise the curtain Wednesday on the main feature of the Oregon Legislature's 2018 short session, offering the first public review of a pair of bills designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help the state and its residents adapt to climate change.

The "cap and invest" bills, currently labeled as Legislative Concepts 44 (Senate version) and 176 (House version), would establish limits on greenhouse gas emissions in the state and require the largest emitters to purchase allowances to cover their output.

Proceeds from the allowance auctions would be used to reduce emissions, cushion the cost effect on households, and invest in communities disproportionately impacted by global warming, including rural areas. The cap and the available allowances would gradually ratchet down to meet the state's greenhouse gas emissions goals – 45 percent below 1990 levels by 2035 and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050 – making non-compliance more expensive and incentivizing large emitters to make investments to reduce their emissions.

That's the bare-bones concept. In practice, such a program would be far more complicated, involving carve-outs and free allowances for various industry sectors, possible linkage with allowance markets in California and Canada, and a complex prescription for the use of the auction proceeds. In fact, opponents contend the legislation is so complicated that it can't possibly be adequately vetted in a 35-day session and should wait for next year's regular legislative session.

But proponents – Gov. Kate Brown among them – contend Oregon has already spent a decade dithering over limits on carbon dioxide emissions, including the entire 2017 session and the subsequent interim period in which a set of workgroups met to refine last year's proposal. Bottom line, they say, the effects of climate change are already here, and it's time for Oregon to clean up its own house and get in front of what is sure to be national carbon regulation, notwithstanding the Trump administration's intransigence on the issue.

The bills would initiate a process of planning, program design and rulemaking lasting two to three years, so advocates insist it's important to get moving now to ensure a program is up and running by 2021.

"The longer we wait, the steeper the declines in the cap have to be," said Sen. Michael Dembrow, D-Portland, the chief sponsor of the Senate bill. "We have to get to a certain point by 2050, and this program provides some discipline to have slow incremental declines."

Politically, this may be advocates' best chance, as the 2019 Legislative session could see another budget nightmare, with little appetite for complicated and potentially expensive climate bills amid increasing public pension and health care costs and efforts to raise new taxes.

Either way, get set for a stiff, polarized debate. Political and business opponents are already bashing the bills, calling the underlying policy an energy sales tax, a slush fund for the governor's cronies, and a job killer. They maintain that carbon pricing poses excessive economic burdens – a potential cost of $700 million a year – with little environmental benefit, as Oregon accounts for such a miniscule fraction of global greenhouse emissions. For their part, utilities say they're already spending heavily to meet the state's emissions goals and don't want their customers charged twice.

"Oregon families want lower class sizes and more opportunities for their children," Mark Johnson, president of the state's largest business association, Oregon Business & Industry, said in a statement. "They are not asking lawmakers to adopt a California-style cap-and-trade system that will increase the cost of living for Oregonians and drive jobs and new investment away from our state."

Environmental advocates come armed with their own studies suggesting that the much-needed policies will have little overall impact in Oregon's economy, and that it could in fact be positive given the intended investments in green energy, efficiency, job training and other adaptation strategies. Indeed, they have dubbed the policies the "Clean Energy Jobs bill."

"The 2018 legislative session is an historic opportunity to establish Oregon's legacy as a clean energy leader," said Meredith Connolly, Oregon director of Climate Solutions. "The Clean Energy Jobs bill limits our rising climate pollution and accelerates Oregon's transition to 100 percent clean energy. It was developed with extensive input, and is tailored to strengthen Oregon's economy and protect rural and urban communities across Oregon."

The legislation, according to the Department of Environmental Quality, would only apply to the 100 or so entities that emit more than 25,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents a year. They fall into three main buckets: transportation, electric utilities, and industrial companies.

Dembrow, the chair of the Senate Environment and Natural Resources Committee, and Rep. Ken Helm, the Washington County Democrat who heads the House Energy and Environment Committee, will hold a joint meeting of their committees Wednesday to review the bills.

Dembrow says the interim workgroups enabled backers to build in additional clarity on governance, directions to the Department of Environmental Quality, legislative oversight, and how the bill would benefit rural Oregon. He says there's enough time in the short session to reach consensus on a good bill.

"There's some tough negotiation and compromise to be done," he said. "We need to accommodate the needs of business, and I think we have because we don't want this to be overly burdensome. But we can't water it down to the point where we're passing a bill for the sake of passing a bill.

"It's good we're not the first," he added. "California blazed the way and Quebec and Ontario followed suit. It's good not to be the first adopter, but it's also good to be an early adopter."

- Ted Sickinger

503-221-8505; @tedsickinger