Hong Kongers are not having enough children and couples are choosing pets over kids. The region is rapidly graying and Aaron Tam explores causes and consequences.

Schools replaced by care homes and a once-vibrant economy dulled by one of Asia's oldest populations: Experts fear this is the Hong Kong of the not-too-distant future.

One in three people in Hong Kong is expected to be 65 years old or above by 2041, likely to curb economic growth in the major financial hub, the Hong Kong government has warned.

"It is a huge concern for our population development," says Hong Kong University social sciences professor Paul Yip, explaining that the economy will take a hit if the aging trend continues.

"There will be more people but fewer who are working, so fewer people will be contributing to the economy of Hong Kong," Yip says.

While some critics argue that government forecasts for 2041 fail to make allowances for migration or those who will continue to work beyond the retirement age of 65, the territory faces clear challenges on an economic and social front.

The impending demographic problem is reflected in programs such as Eldpathy, set up by Hong Kong University of Science and Technology students, which aims to foster more empathy towards the elderly. It encourages teenagers to try on special movement-restricting suits designed to simulate the sensation of age.

"The plight of the aging population in Hong Kong is getting more and more serious," says Eldpathy co-founder Samantha Kong.

Choosing pets over kids

For others, the problem is not so much a high population of elderly but Hong Kong's lack of children.

Financial pressure, career-driven mentalities, limited space and exorbitant property costs drive down the fertility rate, which is one of the lowest in the world by some measures. Hong Kong has an average 1.20 births per woman according to the World Bank.

"Young people do want to get married, but they just cannot afford to rent a place to live," Yip says.

They tend to stay with parents longer in the hope of saving enough money to buy a flat, meaning that they end up waiting longer before getting married and having children, he says.

Social trends in Hong Kong also indicate that an increasing number of women are choosing not to get married. Those who do tie the knot do so much later and have a very small time window to start families, he said.

Many married couples "would rather have a pet than a child," adds Yip.

Based on current fertility and mortality rates, if Hong Kong does not do anything about its aging problem it will have a median age of 56.3 years by 2040, according to the United Nations.

Based on the same factors, Singapore will hit 50.3 years, China's mainland 45.9 years and Thailand 45.7 years, according to UN data.

A higher life expectancy and low birthrate will also raise Hong Kong's dependency ratio from 355 dependent persons per 1,000 people now to 712 per 1,000 in 2041.

Hong Kong chief secretary Carrie Lam, who heads a committee that in October started a four-month public consultation on the issue, said the city must broaden and diversify its workforce to tackle the challenge of aging.

The committee has also considered attracting talent from overseas and the mainland, drawing opposition from the city's unions.

Allowing well-educated mainland parents to have children in Hong Kong has also been suggested to help reverse the demographic trend.

Up until the end of 2012, thousands of mainland women came to give birth in the territory and gained residency rights for their children, but local families complained they were taking up limited hospital beds.

The city has since banned pregnant mainlanders whose husbands were not from Hong Kong from giving birth at local hospitals.

For some, the specter of a city with a diminishing workforce and lack of youthful dynamism is a very real worry.

"It wouldn't really be a city I would like to live in," says professor Yip.

(Source: shanghaidaily.com)