Early summer is usually a happy time around the oil patch, a season when prices tend to spike.

This year is no different, with prices rising from $26 in February to around $50 since May. Oil companies and speculators hope the higher prices are the start of a long-term trend that will pull companies from the maw of bankruptcy.

The data, though, suggest otherwise.

Oil prices tend to rise in late spring and early summer because it's driving season, with parents loading their kids into minivans for treks to see the grandparents or national parks. Higher demand naturally means higher prices from the pump all the way back to the well.

On the supply side, late spring is also the beginning of fighting season, when armies and rebel groups take advantage of warm, dry weather to gain ground against their enemies. That means greater disruption in Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, which also means higher prices.

Both factors are playing into this year's spike on the oil futures market, where speculators have dramatically piled in, according to the Nymex Energy Weekly Commitment of Traders report. But so far the effects on the actual supply-demand balance exist only in the imagination of the traders. Prices will likely go down before they go any higher, something that oil investors and lenders should keep in mind.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and other sources show that demand is higher this summer because of lower gasoline prices and a stronger economy, but it's not that much higher.

Global consumption is expected to rise 2.3 percent this year and 3 percent in 2017, according to the Energy Information Administration. That's quite a boost compared with the 1.5 percent increase in demand seen in 2015. That increased demand has also shown up in U.S. commercial crude oil stocks, which fell by 1.37 million barrels to 535.7 million barrels in the week ended May 27, EIA data showed last week.

U.S. crude inventories, however, stand 12.2 percent above the EIA five-year average for this time of year, according to Platts, an independent provider of energy data. Gasoline inventories are 8 percent higher than last year, despite the increased consumption.

"The large build-out of global inventories should buffer any differences in supply and demand, potentially constraining near-term crude oil price increases," the EIA reported.

On the other side of the scale, the supply shocks are real, but also small and short-lasting.

Wildfires near the tar sands in Canada have caused the biggest disruption in U.S. imports, and that led to some of the draw-down in crude inventories. But the fires are out, and production will soon resume.

A flare-up in Libyan fighting last month helped raise prices, but ever since the country descended into civil war, it's only produced about 400,000 barrels a day. Iran has already made up for Libya's lost 1.2 million barrels a day and is still adding another 500,000 barrels a day in export capacity by year-end.

A shadowy group known as the Niger Delta Avengers is attacking oil infrastructure, cutting Nigeria's production by 800,000 barrels a day. While no one is quite sure who is behind the group, or what it will take to appease them, the disruptions hurt Nigeria more than the global supply picture. The world market still has an excess 1 million barrels a day.

The Energy Information Administration expects surplus production to persist through the middle of 2017, which may explain why Saudi Arabia and Iran are pumping more oil and offering discounts to European customers. In a world with too much production capacity, capturing market share is the top priority.

The $50 mark is critical for U.S. producers, since many of them can afford to tap new wells in the Permian Basin at that price. The industry added four rigs last week in anticipation of higher prices, which means more oil is coming to market. Traders are watching the rig count closely for signs that the glut will grow.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries took no action to cut supply last week, recognizing that higher prices will restart North American production. They are more likely to flood the market than to contract it in order to keep competitors out.

Speculators, meanwhile, have cost the American consumer millions of dollars by running up gasoline prices just as they did last year, when oil hit $61.01 on June 23, 2015, only to drop to $56.96 on July 1 and $52.53 on July 6. Traders needed to book second-quarter profits last year, and I speculate they will do the same this year.

A real recovery of the oil markets will take time and patience, with a significant draining of the storage tanks and a delay in new drilling.

The sector is still six months away from hitting those crucial milestones to a balanced market.