It certainly made sense at the time – the SNP had lost 21 seats in June's general election, the Scottish Conservatives had gained 12, and Nicola Sturgeon had been forced to postpone her headlong dash for a second independence referendum. The SNP was hardly talking about its raison d'être.

But now the SNP feels the game has changed. BuzzFeed News understands the party is pressing ahead with plans for a report that will form the basis for the new case for independence in early February, coinciding with the complicated second phase of Brexit negotiations.

SNP MP Tommy Sheppard said the events of the past week had allowed opposition parties to expose what he called the "clusterfuck" of the UK government's handling of Brexit if things go wrong. May did eventually get her deal on Friday, allowing negotiations to move on to the next phase, but Sheppard predicted that people in Scotland would still grow steadily more keen on what he called their "get-out-of-jail-free card" of independence.

For the Scottish Conservatives, however, this just smacks of naked opportunism.

A senior party source said: "For all the SNP's claims that independence has been boosted this week it was Ruth Davidson who captured the mood of Scotland and indeed the UK; all nations of the UK must enjoy the same rights and opportunities upon Brexit. In clearly articulating this position Ruth was echoing the PM – our union is a precious thing and nothing must be done that puts that union at risk."

Another argument against the Westminster government's problems boosting independence is that it will actually put voters off wanting to embark on a project of such scale.

Moreover, support for independence still lies around the same mark as it did at the time of the referendum in 2014.

Nevertheless, BuzzFeed News has spoken to SNP parliamentarians, staff, and independence activists about how this week's missteps from the UK government – including appearing to offer a special deal for Northern Ireland, admitting no Brexit impact assessments exist, and conceding the UK cabinet still doesn't know what result it wants at the end of negotiations – have led the party to believe that the Scottish independence movement has been given a huge boost.



As soon as reports broke on Monday morning about the UK government considering special circumstances for Northern Ireland, the SNP immediately scented blood. The party's MPs and MSPs, often guarded and reluctant to talk to journalists before consulting their press office, were freely briefing that Scotland was being unfairly treated and that they would be demanding the same concessions as Northern Ireland.

Shortly afterwards, Sturgeon's first public reaction to the reports was to make a case for national self-determination in a tweet, arguing that the Republic of Ireland's strong hand in negotiations with the UK government had demonstrated that independence is the only way to be able to protect "your vital national interests".