For Georgia Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams to become the nation's first black female governor, she'll have to break low turnout trends and win big in the state's Democratic stronghold counties to beat Republican Brian Kemp.

Over the past 20 years, Georgia Democrats have had far fewer counties they could count on as sure things, a reversal from 1998 when Roy Barnes swept 118 of the state's 159 counties to become Georgia's last Democratic governor.

Republican Sonny Perdue won the governor's mansion in 2002 with 118 counties, garnering 104,615 more votes than Barnes. In 2006, Perdue won a second term with 130 counties and 418,675 more votes than Barnes. Current Gov. Nathan Deal won 258,821 more votes in 2010 than Barnes and 120 counties, and 200,443 more votes than Democrat Jason Carter in 2014 and 125 counties. .

Republicans won with a similar margin in another statewide midterm contest, when Republican David Perdue beat Democrat Michelle Nunn by 197,277 votes to win the U.S. Senate seat in 2014. In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump won 128 Georgia counties, garnering 211,141 more votes in the state than Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Needing around 200,000 more votes than Kemp, Abrams could turn to white Republican voters, particularly women, who might have soured on Trump, or her likely strategy of increasing minority voter turnout, said Charles Bullock, the Richard B. Russell professor of political science at the University of Georgia.

PODCAST: Purple Georgia

Georgia Southern University Professor of political science Chris Brown describes the prospects of Georgia turning purple with the election of a Democratic governor, Stacey Abrams, Nov. 6. Longtime Augusta Republican official, Dave Barbee, has a GOP perspective, followed by Jordan Johnson, executive vice president of the Georgia Young Democrats and Lowell Greenbaum, chairman emeritus of the Richmond County Democratic Party.

The "big four" metro Atlanta counties of Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett and DeKalb that backed Clinton for president in 2016 are a prime source of Abrams votes, Bullock said.

Elections results showed 874,695 people voted for Clinton from the four counties, comprising nearly 40 percent of her Georgia support.

The effect of Trump's endorsement will be used by Kemp and Abrams in the governor's race, Bullock said. While Trump and Kemp are enjoying a "mutual love affair," the president is "despised by most Democrats" who likely will run on platforms different from the president's, he said.

Each side enjoys a "solid base" of about 40 percent, Bullock said.

Neither candidate responded to The Augusta Chronicle's request for comment.

Even if Trump's allure starts to wane among Georgia Republican voters ahead of the midterms, don't expect many to switch to Abrams, said Chris Brown, an assistant professor of political science and international studies at Georgia Southern University.

"I can't see them voting for a liberal candidate, but I can see them staying home," Brown said.

More than three-fourths of Georgia voters turned out for the presidential contest, and the midterm governor's race would break a decades-long tradition if Abrams and Kemp drew a similar turnout.

In the 2014 governor's race, for instance, none of the four metro Atlanta counties had turnout of more than 47 percent. Among the top 13 voting counties, Richmond – a Democratic stronghold over the past five midterm election cycles – saw just 39 percent participate. Two-thirds of Richmond County voters supported Clinton in 2016.

Turnout was slightly better in the 2010 midterm contest between Deal and Barnes and hovered between 49 percent and 55 percent for larger Democratic-leaning counties such as Richmond, Chatham, Muscogee and Bibb.

The difference showed in the 48,814 votes Clinton got in Richmond County in 2016 compared with the 29,722 Carter received in 2014.

Lowell Greenbaum, the chairman emeritus of the Richmond County Democratic Party, pointed to low turnout among millennials as dampening the party's chances of electing a Democratic governor.

“Right now it’s about 50 percent and if we could get something in the order of 65 percent to 70 percent, that would turn the state blue," he said.

"That's the problem. What happens is the people that should be out voting do not vote, particularly the millennials,” said Greenbaum, who earlier this year clashed with a segment of younger Democrats who tried to change the local party. The party had the younger group's leader, Joe Traina, removed from a meeting and served with a restraining order.

"The millennials have their own thoughts about this government. You have to convince them to register and to vote," Greenbaum said.

A young Augusta Democrat, however, said Abrams' message is getting through to younger voters.

"We do vote," said Jordan Johnson, who serves as vice president of Young Democrats of Georgia. "We vote for the candidates that are speaking to us. You've got to connect with folks on their level."

Johnson said that means explaining Abrams' positions on issues that matter to younger voters, such as health care, gun control, decriminalization of marijuana, Medicaid expansion, military concerns and education.

"Young voters turn out to candidates that speak to their issues," Johnson said.

Voter registration, which was a focus of Abrams' New Georgia Project prior to her run for governor, plays into her chances of getting elected.

Since May, Georgia counties have added almost 142,000 voters to their registration lists, according to state data. More than 47,000 of the registrations were in Democratic-leaning counties Fulton, DeKalb, Chatham and Clayton, as well as in typical Republican strongholds Cobb and Gwinnett, which supported Clinton in 2016.

Richmond County, where voter registration peaked at 126,646 in 2014 then dipped to 105,642 in the presidential election, added 2,125 voters since the May 22 primary, and had 118,794 as of Sept. 1.

Trump's endorsement of Kemp contributed to his 69 percent landslide victory over Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle in the July 24 GOP gubernatorial runoff, a contest that drew 95 percent of primary voters, 588,307 people, back to the polls. The May 22 Democratic primary Abrams won by a 76 percent landslide saw 555,089 participate.

Brown said increasing overall registration numbers ahead of the Nov. 6 election signals someone is building support.

"We're looking at 6.3 million, which is a significant jump from three years ago," Brown said. "What I interpret as is someone's been trying to register voters. It's enough to make a difference, especially within the midterm election."

But turnout remains key, and don't assume the new voters are Abrams supporters, said Dave Barbee, a longtime Augusta GOP official.

"Everyone votes; they just may not choose to participate by casting a vote," he said. "The ones that stay home, they're either happy or they don't care."

Like the 2016 shift to Clinton in Cobb and Gwinnett, Democrats are popping up in one Augusta-area Republican stronghold.

Elizabeth Brooks Hahn, the chairwoman of the Columbia County Democratic Party, said the party is doing phone banking and canvassing and has tripled in participation, with about 80 attending regular meetings over the past two years, she said.

The rapidly-growing suburban county is discovering it's OK to be a Democrat, she said.

"When I first started two years ago, I had people telling me, 'I don't want anyone to know I'm a Democrat,'" Hahn said. For the party's size in relation to GOP support, "we got mocked a little bit," she said.

Since the presidential election, especially, Hahn said the feeling in Columbia County is changing.

"I think we are starting to get past that. After the presidential, more people will walk out on the street with a 'Notorious RBG' T-shirt," for Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who has been critical of Trump.

Traina, now working on campaigns in the Northeast, said local Democratic Party officials must step up their game and use the digital tools – such as text messaging – to connect with younger voters.

"It seems like we're leaning on the same mechanics of 20 years ago. We need 100,000 of our people to vote and 100,000 of their people to not vote," said Traina, 30. "Unless we're deliberate about precinct organizing and education, we're going to miss it. It's all incumbent on county parties like ours and state leadership to be connecting with folks that we haven't before. If they do, we've got a shot."

Craig Douglas Albert, a conservative political science professor at Augusta University, said Abrams' "great ground game" has Republicans worried.

"Abrams has the most likely chance of taking the governorship in a few decades," he said. "The nation is looking at this. It's poised to be the big contest."

Interactive

A look at how each Georgia county voted in gubernatorial elections from 1998 to 2014. Click on the counties for details or browse the spreadsheet.

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