HISTORICAL SERIES VICTORY PROBABILITIES (UP 1-GAME-NIL) Here's what has happened -- in both the series and the following game -- when an MLB/NBA/NHL team led a best-of-7 series 1 game to nil. "Site" means the site (H=home or V=road) where a team played Game 1: For example, the row in which sport=MLB, round=Finals, and site=V refers to MLB teams with a 1-game-nil MLB World Series lead, having played Game 1 on the road; for a second example, the row in which sport=NHL, round=Semis, and site=H refers to NHL teams with a 1-game-nil NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals-round lead, having played Game 1 at home. Theoretical series victory probability for series-leading team = .65625 (based on theoretical game victory probabilities of .5). Table updated through Fall 2019. sport round site Game 2 rec. series rec. all all all 768-650 (.542) 1005-413 (.709) all all H 608-336 (.644) 741-203 (.785) all all V 160-314 (.338) 264-210 (.557) all Finals all 139-125 (.527) 184-80 (.697) all Finals H 109-72 (.602) 137-44 (.757) all Finals V 30-53 (.361) 47-36 (.566) all Semis all 187-163 (.534) 248-102 (.709) all Semis H 140-85 (.622) 170-55 (.756) all Semis V 47-78 (.376) 78-47 (.624) all Qtrs all 228-184 (.553) 302-110 (.733) all Qtrs H 189-100 (.654) 237-52 (.820) all Qtrs V 39-84 (.317) 65-58 (.528) all Prelim all 214-178 (.546) 271-121 (.691) all Prelim H 170-79 (.683) 197-52 (.791) all Prelim V 44-99 (.308) 74-69 (.517) MLB all all 85-94 (.475) 114-65 (.637) MLB all H 57-46 (.553) 69-34 (.670) MLB all V 28-48 (.368) 45-31 (.592) MLB Finals all 54-57 (.486) 71-40 (.640) MLB Finals H 39-28 (.582) 45-22 (.672) MLB Finals V 15-29 (.341) 26-18 (.591) MLB Semis all 31-37 (.456) 43-25 (.632) MLB Semis H 18-18 (.500) 24-12 (.667) MLB Semis V 13-19 (.406) 19-13 (.594) NBA all all 309-234 (.569) 414-129 (.762) NBA all H 274-124 (.688) 339-59 (.852) NBA all V 35-110 (.241) 75-70 (.517) NBA Finals all 34-39 (.466) 52-21 (.712) NBA Finals H 31-25 (.554) 44-12 (.786) NBA Finals V 3-14 (.176) 8-9 (.471) NBA Semis all 74-52 (.587) 99-27 (.786) NBA Semis H 60-28 (.682) 72-16 (.818) NBA Semis V 14-24 (.368) 27-11 (.711) NBA Qtrs all 114-94 (.548) 160-48 (.769) NBA Qtrs H 103-52 (.665) 136-19 (.877) NBA Qtrs V 11-42 (.208) 24-29 (.453) NBA Prelim all 87-49 (.640) 103-33 (.757) NBA Prelim H 80-19 (.808) 87-12 (.879) NBA Prelim V 7-30 (.189) 16-21 (.432) NHL all all 374-322 (.537) 477-219 (.685) NHL all H 277-166 (.625) 333-110 (.752) NHL all V 97-156 (.383) 144-109 (.569) NHL Finals all 51-29 (.638) 61-19 (.763) NHL Finals H 39-19 (.672) 48-10 (.828) NHL Finals V 12-10 (.545) 13-9 (.591) NHL Semis all 82-74 (.526) 106-50 (.679) NHL Semis H 62-39 (.614) 74-27 (.733) NHL Semis V 20-35 (.364) 32-23 (.582) NHL Qtrs all 114-90 (.559) 142-62 (.696) NHL Qtrs H 86-48 (.642) 101-33 (.754) NHL Qtrs V 28-42 (.400) 41-29 (.586) NHL Prelim all 127-129 (.496) 168-88 (.656) NHL Prelim H 90-60 (.600) 110-40 (.733) NHL Prelim V 37-69 (.349) 58-48 (.547)