Election 2020: Will California 'crossover ballot' rules leave millions of votes uncast?

With the entire nation transfixed by the complex procedures that govern the Iowa caucuses (or were supposed to), less attention has been paid to idiosyncrasies that could influence the outcome of California's March 3 primary. But that may be about to change.

Regardless of the difference between Iowa's popular vote and its “state delegate equivalent” tally and the dueling victory declarations from Sen. Bernie Sanders and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, the state will still only send 41 pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention this summer.

California, on the other hand, will award a monster 416 pledged delegates at the July convention in Milwaukee. The divvy will be based on whom Democrats and millions of "No Party Preference" (NPP) voters select. NPP voters are eligible to receive "crossover ballots" for the Democratic primary on March 3.

But for campaigns and pollsters, the question is: Will those NPP voters actually vote in the Democratic primary?

In late December, voter registrars in California's 58 counties sent a combined 4.2 million postcards to the state's "permanent absentee" voters who are registered as "No Party Preference." These voters participate in elections using ballots mailed to them each cycle.

The postcards explained how to request a party-specific ballot and asked the voter to return the postcard to the registrar's office by Jan. 21 so ballots could be printed and prepared to be mailed by Feb. 3. County Registars will accept crossover ballot request postcards until Feb. 25, a week before the March 3 election. (More on the procedure, here.)

California has six registered political parties and half are holding open primaries, allowing voters without a party preference to participate. Voters not registered as members of any political party can vote in the primary for the Democratic, American Independent and Libertarian parties, while the Republican Party, the Green Party and the Peace & Freedom Party are holding closed primaries open only to registered party members.

Concerns about disenfranchising voters

The postcards generated a small uproar.

In a Los Angeles Times op-ed on crossover ballot confusion, pollster Paul Mitchell and law professor Jessica Levinson blasted national political parties for setting rules that paved the way for the postcard system. Those rules require nonpartisans who want to participate in the primary to opt in.

Because of this "procedural hurdle," Mitchell and Levinson wrote, "a large percentage of voters (nonpartisans who vote by mail) in a significant presidential primary may be disenfranchised."

Throughout California, about two-thirds of voters cast ballots by mail and 27% of the state electorate is registered without a party preference. The implications of crossover ballots for Democratic candidates eyeing California's treasure trove of delegates are huge: Millions of voters eligible to participate in the Democratic primary may fail to request a crossover ballot, and instead receive a ballot with no presidential candidates listed.

Statewide polling shows 75% of independent voters want to participate in the Democratic primary. But few independents have returned their postcards requesting crossover ballots.

In Riverside, 9% return rate for postcards

The Riverside County Registrar of Voters sent out 193,965 crossover ballot request postcards in December and 9%, or 17,534, were returned by the Jan. 21 deadline indicated on the postcards.

On Feb. 3, the registrar sent out 952 American Independent Party crossover ballots, 484 Libertarian crossover ballots, and 14,098 Democratic crossover ballots. That means more than 90% of voters eligible to participate in open primaries were mailed ballots without any party's presidential primary candidates.

For the two candidates who've funneled the most resources to California, Sanders and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, the number of independent voters who participate in the Democratic Primary could be decisive.

Political consultant Ace Smith, who was the Hillary Clinton campaign's California director in 2008 and 2016, said he wondered why candidates weren't making more of an effort to turn out No Party Preference voters, particularly campaigns who see them as central to winning California.

"If you're polling well and are popular among NPP and independent voters—and apparently Sanders is—you should focus your efforts on turning these folks out," he said. "It really could be the difference between winning and losing and, frankly, if Sanders had done a better job at it in 2016, he'd have had a reasonable job at beating Hillary in California."

Anna Bahr, Sanders' California spokesperson, said the campaign had gone to lengths to train volunteers to explain the crossover ballot request process because the campaign considers young people, working-class people and people of color—all of whom she said are more likely to register as NPP than the general electorate—to be the senator's "base" in California.

In California, the campaign's "Bern App" cross-references numbers in canvassers' phones with data from the state's voter registry for a feature tailored to NPP voter outreach.

When a volunteer calls an NPP voter on behalf of Sanders—whether it be a friend whose phone number they already had or someone who signed up at a rally—a script that explains crossover ballots pops up on the mobile app for them to use to explain the process.

'California has not done enough' to inform voters

So why are return rates for the crossover ballot postcards less than 10% in Riverside County? Bahr said it was too soon to draw conclusions about return rates. But the access issue, she said, couldn't be overcome by campaigns and their volunteers alone.

The return rates indicate "that California has not done enough work up until this point to educate voters and make sure that they understand exactly how to cast their ballot," she said. "California is supposed to be on the cutting edge of enfranchisement and voter turnout and we have been failing."

Bloomberg, who entered the race in November and skipped the Iowa caucuses, considers California to be his Iowa, according to Chris Masami Myers, the Bloomberg campaign's California director.

"The Bloomberg campaign is investing in a strong field effort to engage voters in the Democratic primary, and we welcome all voters who are drawn to our policies," he said in a statement. "We are committed to engaging voters to increase turnout in this critical election."

Rebecca Spencer, the Riverside County Registrar of Voters, said she wasn't fazed by the postcard return rate, which is already greater than it was in the 2016 primary election in Riverside County. Even though the return date specified was Jan. 21 — because the Registrar began preparing ballots to be mailed Jan. 22— the Registrar has received a steady stream of postcards in the weeks since as well.

For NPP voters who were mailed ballots with no presidential primary candidates, the Registrar will send replacement ballots if the voter returns his or her postcard by Feb. 25. Before certifying the final count, the Register will verify to ensure nobody has voted twice.

As of Feb. 6, Spencer's office had received 18,012 crossover ballot request postcards back, including 14,483 for Democratic ballots.

Based on prior elections and the questions her office is fielding on its phone line, Spencer expects more to be returned as the election nears. "We usually see people pay more close attention to election mail as we get closer to Election Day," she said.

And even if independent voters don't return their postcards, Spencer said, they can still cast provisional crossover ballots at their polling places on election day, where signs will be displayed and volunteers trained to explain the procedure.

Sam Metz covers politics. Reach him at samuel.metz@desertsun.com or on Twitter @metzsam.