It is possible that administrative records will have to enumerate a much larger share of the population as the virus spreads. While it might seem risky to insert new operations into a census already underway, the bureau has convincing evidence that administrative records can improve census-taking.

It is simple. Count a household using administrative records, then compare that count with the census response from that household. The bureau has gotten better at this with time. In 2010 the match rate was around 90 percent —— that is, if the 2010 census had been conducted using only administrative data, nine out of 10 people would have been accurately counted. Of course, the census is responsible for a 100 percent count. That accuracy would be easier to reach if nine out of 10 are already counted through records. In fact, the bureau estimates that “in-office enumeration,” as it is called today, will be 93 percent accurate this year.

This achievement has involved about 150 census employees, with 25 trained to verify that records match census responses. Each verification, incidentally, occurs in seconds.

Even at 93 percent accuracy, the use of administrative records is a more accurate method than longstanding alternatives. For decades, when census takers were unable to get a response from a household, the bureau used answers from proxies, that is, neighbors whose information may or may not have been accurate (there is no way to test). Or a statistical process assigns to a nonresponding household characteristics common to the neighborhood.

In the context of today’s viral threat, when millions of residents worry about who comes to the door and thousands of census takers hesitate about putting themselves at risk, the census will weigh its options, possibly making greater use of administrative records than initially planned.

This new process has an unplanned side benefit. The bureau is already fighting disinformation that could stop people from cooperating. For example, a recent Twitter post warned residents in one area that census impersonators with fraudulent IDs were robbing people. The report was fictional, but that was not determined until after a local TV station had amplified it with advice on how to protect against strangers knocking at the door. Such disinformation, even when quickly corrected, increases mistrust. However, they would be no match for the office workers using administrative records to count those people who didn’t fill out their census forms. It might also count immigrants who have been scared away from the census by the Trump administration’s failed effort to include a question about citizenship.

The use of administrative records is not the only innovation available. The bureau has started to explore whether digital data sources can be successfully incorporated — as they already are in various government economic statistics. If this happens at scale, the 2030 census will look less like the current census than this 2020 census looks like the 1790 census.