What is PDO?

PDO, also called SPSV% is the sum of a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. Shooting percentage is the rate at which a team scores on one of its shots while save percentage is the frequency shots are stopped by the teams goalies. These stats are usually collected at 5v5, but for the purpose of this article I am looking at all situations including power play and penalty kill.



PDO is also considered to be an accurate measurement of how lucky a team has been on the ice. Ultimately PDO usually regresses back to 100 over longer periods of time. A team with a PDO over 100 is probably had the puck bounce their way a few times and may not be as good as they seem. On the other hand, you can assume teams with a PDO below 100 have had a hard time controlling the puck and can expect to get a bounce or two in their favour in the future.



The Stats

Now that we have learned a little bit of the background on PDO, we can investigate team overall PDO and see if any team’s start to the season have a chance at being sustainable. As we can see from the diagram below or here, Edmonton, Buffalo, and Colorado are off to hot starts through the first 10 games. Now PDO may suggest that they could regress back to more normal levels of “luck” while the LA Kings can look forward to their puck luck turning around

A graph of all NHL teams PDO through 10 games. Take a more in depth look at the Tableau viz here.

Stats like shooting percentage and save percentage are luck driven when looking at shorter time frames. Obviously there are more talented shooters than others, but it can be seen that the number of shots over a course of a season is still not a big enough sample size to overcome the role luck plays on scoring or saving a shot.

Not So Average

This graph also is a good prediction of teams on a streak of high scoring and low scoring games. Let’s take a look at the Boston Bruins and Nashville Predators, two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum for amount of goals per game. Boston has allowed the least amount of goals in the league with 19 and is also in the bottom third of the league in goals for. Nashville has the second most goals in the league and is in the top third in the league for goals allowed.



In conclusion PDO is a good indication of a team’s “puck-luck” but you can always assume that they will regress back to a normal PDO level of around 100. Check out @Data_Diamond on Twitter and @the_brkdwn for our #NHL82GameChallenge picks. I will be making a pick in each Tampa Bay Lightning game from now until the end of the season. Be sure to follow along!

Don’t miss the opportunity to #PropUp with ThriveFantasy. A BRAND NEW product rethinking DFS & Player Props. Sign up TODAY with our link and they’ll match a $10 deposit dollar-for-dollar.



Related