Jersey insiders speculate about whether Booker (left) will challenge Christie. 2013 headliner: Christie vs. Booker?

It would be the kind of off-year prizefight political reporters dream about: pugnacious New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie squaring off for reelection against Newark Mayor Cory Booker.

But reporters shouldn’t start booking Garden State hotel rooms just yet.


( PHOTOS: Cory Booker and Chris Christie)

Interviews with Democratic and Republican insiders and strategists indicate that even if Christie seeks reelection (which while likely, isn’t a given), Booker is hardly a done deal for the Democratic nomination. Those strategists suggest the mayor is more likely preparing for a possible 2014 Senate battle, if Frank Lautenberg retires. Even if Booker does run against Christie in 2013, he’s no shoo-in a state rife with bitter intraparty battles pitting powerful party bosses against one another.

In addition to Booker, other potential Democratic candidates include former Gov. Richard Codey, state Democratic Party Chairman John Wisniewski and state Sen. Barbara Buono, who has been not-so-quietly setting up a run for more than two years. More nationally known names are also being tossed around, including Rep. Frank Pallone and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lisa Jackson, who used to head the New Jersey counterpart of EPA.

Speculation is rampant about whether the popular Christie will seek reelection, but he’s given no clear indication of his intentions. Christie’s top political adviser, Bill Palatucci, left his private sector job last week to focus on politics, but the governor told reporters that shouldn’t be read as a sign that he’ll run in 2013 or make a 2016 presidential bid. Palatucci was vice president and general counsel of Community Education Centers, a for-profit company that operates prisons and halfway houses in 17 states and that has come under increased scrutiny for alleged mistreatment of inmates. During superstorm Sandy, 15 inmates escaped from one of CEC’s New Jersey facilities.

“I’ll talk about 2013 when we get to 2013,” Palatucci told POLITICO, repeating his stock response when asked about Christie’s plans.

Christie is a national political figure who himself considered a 2012 presidential bid. He played a prominent role as a Mitt Romney surrogate, traveling and fundraising for the GOP presidential nominee, and was the keynote speaker at the Republican convention in Tampa. But after superstorm Sandy hit his state the week before Election Day, the governor ruffled GOP feathers when he heaped praise on President Barack Obama for his help for the state and didn’t show at a nearby campaign event. Christie — whose personal approval ratings in New Jersey exceeded 55 percent in the latest poll — characteristically brushed off the criticism.

But seeking reelection carries risks for the governor. New Jersey remains a blue state that President Barack Obama carried by a larger margin in 2012 than in 2008. In 2009, Christie was able to capitalize on a deep-seated dislike for then-incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine, coupled with a series of corruption busts in his role as U.S. attorney. But the climate would be different in 2013 after broad-based Republican losses in 2012 and even his leadership role in the hurricane’s aftermath could be in the rear-view mirror.

“I think right now, if the election were today, Christie would run over anybody, because he’s certainly benefiting from the perception of leadership in the aftermath of the storm,” New Jersey pollster David Redlawsk said. “There is no question that people are very positive about his initial response, both his taking leadership but also his interaction with the president.”

New Jersey elects only three statewide officials — the governor and two U.S. senators — making the competition for the 2013 gubernatorial nomination even more cutthroat.

A Democratic primary battle could set two important factions of the New Jersey Democratic Party against each other: the public employee unions and the influential party bosses who sided against the unions in benefits battles.

Sen. Bob Menendez cruised to reelection last week, defeating Christie ally Joe Kyrillos and securing another term even after the conservative Daily Caller published an interview with two women who claimed to be prostitutes hired by him.

The other seat, currently held by Sen. Frank Lautenberg, remains a question mark for aspiring New Jersey politicians. The 88-year-old Lautenberg has said he intends to seek reelection. But many Democrats, who don’t want to say so publicly for fear of upsetting Lautenberg and goading him into seeking reelection to prove them wrong, are beginning to speculate that he may step aside.

“The assumption is that he’s running for reelection and that closes options for others and makes them more likely to run for governor,” said former Sen. Bob Torricelli.

As Jersey insiders speculate about whether Booker will challenge Christie, the mayor’s not-so-veiled Senate ambitions are seen as the most likely reason that he will stay out of the 2013 race. Booker has already established a federal PAC to explore making a senatorial run.

Democratic politics in New Jersey are still run by party bosses — a term used freely and without prejudice even if those who carry the title often try to shake it — who are powerful fundraisers and power brokers. The most powerful boss is George Norcross, who oversees the southern region of the state. Essex County Executive Joe DiVincenzo Jr., or “JoeD,” has filled the county’s power gap left after longtime boss Steve Adubato Sr. retired from politics. Menendez still holds most of the control in Hudson County but abandoned most of the day-to-day power brokering.

Party bosses are also crucial in deciding which candidate gets the “party line” in primaries, the top ballot position given to primary candidates that serves as the official party backing and often results in the winner. For a relatively unknown candidate, loss of a party line can end a campaign.

Booker is likely to wield a great deal of influence if he jumps into the gubernatorial race, although many speculate he’s leaning toward a 2014 Senate run.

Mark Matzen, Booker’s political adviser, said response and recovery from Hurricane Sandy have delayed the decision-making process about whether the mayor will run for governor.

“He’s actually just sort of getting over that now to where we can sort of have some more conversations about what his future might hold,” Matzen said. “He know he needs to make a decision on this, he’s on the verge of making that decision. With the storm, it just sort of put us back.”

The latest Quinnipiac University poll, conducted before Sandy, showed Christie leading Booker 46 percent to 42 percent.

“I believe that everybody in the Democratic establishment believes that if Cory Booker comes into this race he clears the field of any other candidate. I certainly would support him,” said state Senate Majority Leader Loretta Weinberg, who ran for lieutenant governor in 2009 and wields strong influence over Bergen County Democrats. “I think he has the personality, the fundraising prowess and the ability to be our best candidate.”

New Jersey has frequently seen politicians run for office, lose and come back and win with the next try. Even if Booker were to lose a Democratic gubernatorial run, he could set himself up for a future bid, said Torricelli.

“He’s got some internal problems in Newark and getting reelected in Newark would be problematic,” he added.

Whoever secures the Democratic gubernatorial nomination is likely going to need the backing of Norcross, the South Jersey insurance magnate and party boss.

Norcross also chairs the Cooper University Hospital board in Camden and recently was part of a small group that acquired ownership of The Philadelphia Inquirer. The ownership hasn’t been missed in the newsroom.

And while several Democrats have indicated that Norcross recently made glowing comments about Booker as the potential nominee, he hasn’t given the run his blessing.

“The party line matters immensely, and that’s in the purview of the county party leadership,” said Redlawsk. “If you get Norcross on your side, you’re going to have the lines in South Jersey, and Booker would have a pretty good shot at the lines in North Jersey.”

Norcross continues to have a delicate relationship with Christie.

The Republican governor signed on to a for-profit charter school model in Camden — which Norcross has a stake in — and Christie has been pushing to improve the city’s broken school system. Norcross and the group of South Jersey lawmakers aligned with him backed Christie’s overhaul of public employee and teacher benefits, one of the crowning achievements of the governor’s first term.

The names of two Norcross-aligned politicians have been tossed out as potential Christie challengers: state Senate President Steve Sweeney andAssembly Majority Leader Lou Greenwald, who chaired the chamber’s budget committee for almost a decade. Neither lawmaker returned calls seeking comment about a possible run.

But several Democratic insiders suggest Norcross might be reluctant to challenge Christie so directly or see two of his rising stars bruised in a brutal campaign. Backing Booker would allow him to keep his hands directly out of the campaign. If Booker were to be successful, it could also clear the field for a south Jersey Senate candidate in 2014.

Sweeney has established a federal PAC for a possible Senate run and has not made a secret of his desire to run.

Democrats point to the possibility that Norcross could sign off on a sacrificial lamb, a candidate who is strong enough to ensure Democrats’ hold on both chambers of the Legislature without risking a top-tier candidate in a Christie match-up.

At the top of that list is Wisniewski, a member of the state Assembly who has taken up the banner of Christie foil for the past two years, although he would likely dispute that he would be a sacrificial lamb.

Wisniewski lost friends within his party after picking the wrong side of a primary battle for mayor of Perth Amboy last week.

“I’m looking at the possibility as we speak, I haven’t made any decisions,” Wisniewski said of the gubernatorial race. “People have spoken to me and suggested that I would be a good candidate to challenge Chris Christie.”

If Booker doesn’t run, the Democratic primary will likely become a bruising battle. Public employee unions, who are still a powerful force within the Democratic Party, are unlikely to back any of the candidates being considered by the party establishment.

Wisniewski, who opposed legislation reducing collective bargaining rights, might receive union support and be competitive against an establishment candidate.

For the time being, some of the most powerful unions are waiting on the sidelines.

“We just got through a great election that we did so much work on, and now our focus is on helping our members and working families all over the state with the hurricane,” said Hetty Rosenstein, the New Jersey director for the Communication Workers of America, which represents most of the state’s public employees. “We are watching and waiting, but our big play was with the presidential race and is now really trying to help our folks.”

Also in those ranks are Codey and Buono, both vocal opponents of the Christie-backed changes to public employee benefits and bargaining.

Codey served as acting governor twice, once after Jim McGreevey resigned after a sex scandal and again when Corzine was in a high-speed automobile accident. At the time, New Jersey did not elect a lieutenant governor, so as Senate president, Codey took control. The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Codey trailing Christie by 6 percentage points, 47 to 41 percent. But the mutual disdain of Codey and Norcross is no secret and would make his primary bid a long shot.

“At some point before the first of the year, a decision will be made,” Codey said of whether he’ll run. “The polls show [Booker] and I are in a statistical dead heat about who would be the best candidate to beat Christie.”