Last month a Washington D.C. think tank released a paper about what a strike on Iran's nuclear facility could look like, and to follow it up another report predicts how many Iranian casualties would follow a U.S. led air strike.

The Ayatollah’s Nuclear Gamble written by Khosrow B. Semnani, and published by the Hinckley Institute of Politics, University of Utah and Omid for Iran concludes a strike would include four sites and irradiate up to 100,000 Iranian citizens and soldiers.

The four locations include:

Isfahan: The Nuclear Technology/Research Center in Esfahan (ENTC) is supposed to be the main location of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Semnani predicts 1,000 workers here will be killed, and up to 70,000 casualties in the surrounding areas from toxic plumes: 71,000

Natanz: One-hundred miles north of Isfhahan, this location has been in use for about 12 years and is said to be responsible for production of plutonium and enriched uranium. With a high probability of attack, Semnani projects 1,000 worker casualties and up to 7,000 collateral injuries within the surrounding area: 7,100

Arak: A heavy water production plant in existence since 2006, Semnani projects 500 workers here will be killed in the first instants of a strike. If the heavy water is actually in production the author goes on to project an additional 3,600 causalities from radiation exposure: 4,100

Bushehr: Iran's first operational nuclear power plant has been online since November 2011 following a string of delays. Built to Russian designed specifications at a cost of nearly $1 billion, Bushehr is southeast of a city with a population of 240,000 that enjoys a strong wind blowing Northwest from the power plant. Semnani projects 3,000 instant deaths at the site and up to 12,000 deaths in the city if only 1 to 5 percent of the population is exposed: 15,000

Semnani estimates up to 97,000 Iranian casualties would result from attacks on the four locations. An attack of this scale would have to be led by the U.S. and aside from requiring untold assets on the ground and in the air, it would prompt a violent response from a very well-armed Tehran military.





Aside from the human toll, the report goes on to outline economic damages totaling in the tens of billions of dollars within Iran alone.