Governments around the world are competing with each other in a bid to gain first lead advantage in the up-and-coming field of quantum computing , which is expected to revolutionize everything from cellular communications and navigation to sensors and imaging.

Quantum technologies exploit qubits (quantum bits), which, unlike bits in traditional binary computing, can either be a zero, a one, or both simultaneously, at any point in time. This means they work with probabilities, which enables them to handle a much larger number of possible outcomes than classic devices.

As a result, quantum-based gadgets, when they appear on mass, should be much quicker but also much smaller and consume a lot less power than more traditional machines - and it is these features that are considered likely to disrupt certain markets. The first generation of quantum technologies in the shape of lasers and semiconductors certainly managed to do just that and the hope is that so-called “Quantum 2.0” will do the same.

Therefore, it comes as no surprise that countries ranging from the US and UK to China and Germany should all be investing heavily in the technology – despite the fact that, while it may have been the target of serious scientific research for the last 20 years or so, few real-world, commercial applications have appeared on the market to date.

So far, it is the US that at a huge €360 million (source: Innovate UK ) per year has spent the most on it, with the government’s focus mainly being on clocks and navigation technologies. But US tech giants such as IBM, Intel and Google are also spending millions on trying to build quantum computers, an endeavour to which they have been pipped to the post by Canadian start-up D-Wave Systems.

D-Wave launched its first commercial machine in 2011, which costs an eye-watering $10 million a pop. It cannot be used for general purpose processing, however, but focuses instead on solving specialist optimization problems.

The firm’s Colin Williams, director of business development and strategic partnerships, who gave a presentation at the ‘Quantum Communications & Computing’ conference at Cambridge University’s Cambridge Computer Labs last week believes that the best use cases for such boxes are artificial intelligence and machine learning. While on the one hand, he claimed that the technology had “the potential to revolutionise deep learning”, on the other it could support applications in the financial services sector, for example, to optimize trading trajectories or forecast market instability. But interestingly Williams also added:

Quantum computing won’t replace classical machines – they’ll augment them. So quantum could undertake algorithm processing to get an approximate answer very quickly, and a classical computer could finish the processing off. So they complement each other.

Quantum’s potential

Richard Murray, lead technologist in the emerging technologies and industries stream of Innovate UK [https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/innovate-uk], a government agency that supports innovation in the country, hopes, meanwhile, that future uses of quantum technologies will not be limited simply to computers per se. He too said at the conference:

My hope is that quantum will become integrated into electronics rather than be in its own silo.

As for other countries that are investing heavily in quantum technologies, next on the list behind the US is China, which is spending €220 million per annum.

But interestingly, this April also saw the European Union (EU) join the party in a big way. It intends to fork out €1 billion over the next 10 years for activities ranging from scientific research to the development of devices for sensing, communication, measuring, simulation and computing. This investment equates to €550 million per year, propelling the region instantly, if somewhat belatedly, to the top of the global investment league table.

But the UK is also keen to position itself as a leader in this space. It was one of the first to put its money where its mouth is in 2013 when it invested £270 million in the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council’s ‘UK National Quantum Technologies Programme’.

The aim of this so-called “five year programme with a 10-year vision” was to bring the country’s research base together with industry, research funding bodies and other government agencies to move new technologies from the drawing board to the market more quickly. The programme also included £50 million set aside for “innovation”, which means funding and supporting work on new projects, applications and businesses.

As a result of all this, the UK is now fifth in the world in investment terms behind Germany (€120 million per annum), putting in a total of €105 million each year to advance the quantum computing cause. In fact, as Neil Stansfield, head of the Centre of Excellence for Technology Innovation at the UK government’s Defence, Science and Technology Laboratory’s Knowledge, Innovation, and Futures programme, pointed out the UK government’s total investment of £350 million is the largest amount it has ever spent on supporting a single technology.

But its interest appears to have been sparked not only because of the “potentially absolutely profound” impact the technology promises to have in areas such as communications, but also due to the possible important defence and national security uses to which it could be put.

The race to win

These include being able to measure changes in gravity, which would make it feasible to accurately detect underground tunnels, and enabling GPS-based navigation to take place in environments such as the ocean where the technology currently does not work, making it useful for submarines. Stansfield explained:

The potential of quantum computing, if we can get it right, is that any task involving lots of parallel processing is easy meat. For example, GCHQ, the main UK intelligence and security services organization, is interested in real-time image processing as it would fundamentally change its ability to react, and then there’s also code-breaking….So it’s the first time in the UK that we’ve set up a strategic roadmap for this kind of thing, looking at where quantum computing is and where it might go, and we’ve also brought a community together to work on this.

This community includes four National Quantum Technology Hubs, which were set up in November 2014 out of a consortium of 17 universities led by Birmingham, Glasgow, Oxford and York. Birmingham specialises in work around sensors and metrology; Glasgow in enhanced imaging and sensing; Oxford in quantum computing and simulation; and York in data and transactional security.

However if the UK is to win the race to market, it has a number of challenges that it has overcome, believes Paul Martin, chief technology officer at electronics consultancy Plextek. Firstly, although quantum technologies may work in university laboratories today, there are few occasions where they offer the “order of magnitude” improvements in performance necessary to justify their additional cost commercially.

Secondly, the technology itself needs to mature rapidly if venture capitalists and systems integrators are to be persuaded to buy into its potential. But for either to invest, they are “unanimous” that they would need to see a return within five years of development commencing – a situation that could prove tricky, particularly if the UK government decides not to renew its funding in 2018.

As a result, in order to plug the funding gap and encourage SIs to start building commercial products from the building blocks available, Martin recommended that the UK government adopt a similar approach to the US Department of Defense’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and Small Business Innovation Research program. They cover 100% of project costs plus an additional 7% fee, which can be used as profits – as opposed to the UK government’s current stance, where it contributes significantly less than costs.

A final suggestion, which holds true across the world though, relates to terminology and the need for awareness-raising of what quantum actually means for the future. Martin explained:

Quantum means nothing to most people. A few think about quantum computers and others about quantum key distribution, but I say the term ‘quantum’ is just a distraction. Instead it should just be referred to as new technology that underpins performance in areas where it’s about measuring environments. But there’s also a need to accelerate knowledge. Engineers who are currently involved in design using traditional technologies need to think about the next generation of ideas coming through – and that includes quantum.

My take

Plextek’s Martin believes that we should start seeing the first commercial quantum applications appearing within five years, but I’m not convinced. I’d say more like 10. This is very complex technology that few people understand and it still seems very much at the research and development stage.

And as Martin says himself, it generally takes two years to create a solution out of the building blocks and another three to prove it’s stable. So while I think While the technology definitely has great potential, Cath Everett argues that the much-talked about quantum revolution isn't just around the corner.