Deirdre Shesgreen

dshesgreen@usatoday.com

WASHINGTON — House Speaker John Boehner said Tuesday the driving issue of the 2016 election will be "competence" and if Jeb Bush decides to run, "he's got a real shot" at winning because of his record as the one-time governor of Florida.

"He has a record of serious, big reforms," Boehner, R-West Chester, said in an exclusive interview with the Enquirer.

In a wide-ranging 25-minute session in his Capitol Hill office, Boehner talked about everything from his legacy as House speaker to his relationship with Texas GOP Sen. Ted Cruz to his goals if Republicans win control of both chambers of Congress in November.

Boehner shot down fresh rumors that he will face a revolt from conservatives when he seeks a third term as speaker in January, and he dismissed suggestions that his leadership team would strip committee assignments from any GOP lawmaker who voted against him.

"I just don't think it's necessary," Boehner said of the possible punishment. He predicted that "very few" Republicans would vote against him when the 114th Congress convenes in January to elect its speaker.

The interview with Boehner came after he returned from a 10-day trip across the Northeast, raising money and campaigning for House Republicans ahead of the November elections. He said he has been working nonstop to elect more Republicans to the House.

"If you saw the schedule, your head would spin right off," he cracked between puffs of his cigarette.

Those efforts will likely pay off, with the GOP expected to gain two to 12 House seats, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Republicans also may win a majority in the Senate, giving Boehner a partner - most likely Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. - at the helm of that chamber.

Boehner said his strong relationship with McConnell would prove constructive in a GOP-led Congress.

"(McConnell) and I could not be closer," Boehner said. "We understand each other very well."

But that doesn't mean Boehner's job will be any easier in the 114th Congress.

The Ohio Republican and 24-year congressional veteran conceded that no matter what the election outcome, the next Congress will present new challenges.

The election could bring even more rebels into Boehner's already fractious GOP ranks. Already, some conservatives are openly talking about trying to oust him as speaker when the House casts a public vote in January.

"Time's up," Rep. Paul Gosar, R-Ariz., told The Hill, a Washington publication, this month. "In tough times, it doesn't mean you play timid, it means to play bold, and I don't see that."

Such sentiments could force a repeat of Boehner's cliffhanger re-election to speaker in January 2013, when conservatives fell a few votes short of forcing the leadership election to a second round of voting.

"His caucus is going to be more belligerent than it was before," said Norman Ornstein, a congressional expert at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank. "I think he survives the leadership vote, but once again he is going to have to play a passive-aggressive role, letting his more radical members take their positions all the way until it becomes apparent that they are self-destructive."

In other words, Boehner could preside over more fiscal brinkmanship if his members want to attach controversial measures to the annual spending bills. That tactic resulted in a government shutdown last fall, when Boehner was pushed by House conservatives into a showdown with the president over funding for the health reform law.

Boehner said he was "confident" that any effort to oust him as speaker would fail. He said he doesn't worry too much about the conservative rebels in his conference who have made his tenure so far a stormy one.

"We're in a difficult political environment," Boehner said. "I spent my whole life playing the cards I was dealt, not necessarily the cards I wanted."

If the GOP keeps control of the House and wins the Senate, it's not clear how much time Boehner and McConnell would spend pushing contentious proposals, such as repealing the health reform law, that will not go anywhere with President Barack Obama still in the White House.

On Tuesday, Boehner said the health law "has to go, so we'll spend some time on it." But, he added, "I do think it's important that we show the American people that we as a party can govern."

"The No. 1 focus," he said, "is going to be on jobs."

Boehner said a bipartisan majority in the House and Senate would support repealing the medical device tax, part of the health care law. He's said there's also strong support for approving the Keystone XL pipeline that would carry Canadian crude oil to the Gulf Coast. The Obama administration has delayed a decision on the permit for the pipeline amid opposition from environmental groups.

"There's two things right there that would create an awful lot of jobs in America," Boehner said.

But given possible opposition from the White House on such things, what is really doable?

"I'm sure that Sen. McConnell and I will be able to figure that out," Boehner said without elaborating.

He shrugged off questions about whether he had planned to retire before the 114th Congress, only to be pressed to stay on after his deputy, former Rep. Eric Cantor, R-Va., lost his primary in a surprise defeat this year.

"Maybe true, maybe not true," Boehner quipped.

"I told my colleagues in June, just in case anybody had any doubts, that I was all in," he added. "I'm going to stay all in."

Boehner was most forthcoming when asked about Jeb Bush and the 2016 presidential race.

"He can talk about Republican issues better than most anybody that we've got out there," Boehner said of Bush. "He's got a real record of reform as governor of Florida."

"... And when you step back and look at what's likely to be the biggest issue in 2016, I think the issue is going to be competence," he said. "I think he could be a very competent candidate and could make that appeal."

Asked about the prospects of two other possible contenders - Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio - Boehner said they would both be "great" candidates. He suggested Portman could win the GOP nomination despite his support for same-sex marriage because there are "very few one-issue voters out there."

"We've got a lot of good candidates," Boehner said. "We'll see who decides to throw their hat in the ring."

Other highlights from the interview with Boehner:

-- On Cruz, who has given Boehner heartburn by encouraging House conservatives to block moderate proposals floated by Boehner's team: "I've not talked to him since he's been elected" to the Senate in 2012.

-- On what he wants his legacy to be: "I don't get into legacy. That doesn't do anything for me. If I wanted a big legacy, I'd have been a pork-barreler and had a bunch of stuff named after me. I don't want anything named after me."

-- On whether he thought, when he was first elected in 1990, that he'd stay for 24 years. "No. No, no, no. . . . I thought I'd probably be here about 10 years, go back and run my business or do something else. I'm still here because . . . the fight over a smaller, less costly, and more accountable government continues, and I want to lead that fight."

Contact Deirdre Shesgreen at dshesgreen@usatoday.com or @dshesgreen on Twitter.