When I first started reading about Bitcoin in 2011, I approached it as an interesting experiment that could increase economic freedom and give billions of unbanked access to basic financial services and the global economy.

I observed small and growing demand for a digital currency with Bitcoin’s properties, and believed any barriers to adoption would come from the supply side, software failures or government bans on using the technology.

I’m still hopeful that cryptocurrencies will have a net positive impact, but I find myself increasingly worried about what widespread adoption might mean for society.

Bitcoin is becoming the Internet of Money

We can now transfer value across the internet nearly as easily as we send emails. Citizens in Venezuela and Zimbabwe are mining and purchasing Bitcoin to survive rapid hyperinflation. In Switzerland’s cryptovalley, rent and utilities can be paid in Bitcoin. The Swiss national rail service is selling Bitcoin at 1000 ticket kiosks across the country. MIT is issuing digital diplomas on Bitcoin’s blockchain.

Issues around scalability, lack of global internet access, and the ease of purchasing cryptocurrency are all being addressed. Second layer protocols like the Lightning Network will improve scalability while enabling micropayments, advanced smart contracts, and cross-blockchain atomic swaps.

Google, Facebook, SpaceX, and various mesh networks are on track to provide global internet access within a decade. Coinbase and ATMs make buying Bitcoin simple.

I believe Bitcoin will be the most widely used blockchain for at least another 3-5 years, while Ethereum will hold the number two spot for a similar time period.

The Decentralized Web is Coming

There is a growing appetite for alternatives to monopolists such as Facebook and Twitter, where users and their data are products to be sold to the paying customers, advertising companies.

Platforms like Steemit, Yours, Y’alls, Akasha, Leeroy and Cent are templates for what alternatives to Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, and Quora might look like. Civil and the Decentralized News Network aim to establish sources for independent journalism that prioritize quality fact checking and informing the average citizen over partisan propaganda designed to generate revenue. On these decentralized platforms, monetary value flows towards users providing content, not parasitic and often intrusive advertisers.

See the following pieces for optimistic and pessimistic takes on the potential of decentralized social networks.

BlockStack is building infrastructure to enable a more decentralized web, and IPFS is developing a peer-to-peer hypermedia protocol, an alternative to HTTP that doesn’t rely on servers.

Legacy Institutions are Preparing for a World Run on Blockchains

Not so long ago, some experts argued that personal computers would never be adopted, and that tablets would only be used as expensive coffee trays. So I think it may not be wise to dismiss virtual currencies. — Christine Lagarde International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director

The Bank For International Settlements (BIS)(responsible for coordinating activity among the world’s central banks), Enterprise Ethereum Alliance, and The United States General Services Administration are exploring how concepts pioneered by Bitcoin can be used to engineer technologies better suited for corporate and governmental purposes.

Central Bank Cryptocurrencies — BIS

Fidelity Investments, responsible for $2.3 trillion in assets, is running a profitable Bitcoin and Ether mining operation. Goldman Sachs’ CEO is open minded towards Bitcoin, and the Wall Street Journal recently reported that Goldman is considering opening a Bitcoin trading desk.

JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon believes Bitcoin is a “fraud” that will eventually “be closed.” Meanwhile, his company seems to be on the verge of bringing its fork of Ethereum, Quorum, into production usage. They’ve recently integrated Zcash’s privacy technology into the platform.

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Ripple have launched an open source project, mojaloop, hoping to “expand access to financial services in developing countries.” Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has criticized Bitcoin while praising Ripple. Like Dimon, he believes that governments will take action to prevent Bitcoin from growing. PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel believes people are “underestimating the great potential of Bitcoin.”

Estonia has launched a blockchain-based E-residency program, while the Russian government is considering the introduction of a “cryptoruble.” The Blockchain & Society Project has received a €1.5 million grant from the European Union’s Research Council to study the societal impact of blockchain technologies over the next 5 years.

“Blockchain technology may well prove itself capable of handling many aspects of the financial system more aptly than humans ever could. Whether it will shift the balance from walled-off, corporate networks to wide-open, distributed systems will boil down to which we ultimately choose to trust.” — Spectrum IEEE

Decentralized Applications will Disrupt

I believe the following DAPP-based projects built on Ethereum could reach 1 million users within two years and go mainstream in 5. Disclaimer: I hold tokens associated with each project on this list. This is not investment advice.

Augur (REP) — A decentralized prediction market where users can trade derivatives on any future event.

Gnosis (GNO)— Another decentralized prediction market whose team recently published a great introduction to PMs, and just announced a prediction market tournament where users will be able to test their platform.

Brave (BAT) — A web browser with built in ad-blocking and cryptocurrency based micropayments for publishers. Founded by Brendan Eich, creator of JavaScript and co-founder of Mozilla. Not a DAPP, but will easily interact with them thanks to Metamask integration.

Singular DTV (SNGLS) — An entertainment studio building a suite of applications and modules that will help artists maintain control of intellectual property, creative decisions, and avoid paying large chunks of revenue to middlemen like Spotify and record labels. The team includes former Sony marketing exec and Napster VP Bill Richards, Hollywood content distribution executive Jason Tyrell, experienced producer Kim Jackson, and acclaimed director Alex Winter.

MelonPort (MLN)— A platform where anyone can create or invest in a fund for digital or traditional assets. Fund rules are enforced by code and managers performances are transparent.

Golem (GNT)— The AirBNB for computing with the purpose of dramatically speeding up academic research.

Maker (MKR) — A decentralized autonomous organization issuing a stablecoin (floating against the SDR) that doesn’t rely on a central authority for maintaining price stability.

0x Protocol (ZRX) — A protocol for decentralized exchanges that can increase liquidity for cryptoassets and enhance DAPP interoperability. The Ocean, District0x, Ethfinex, and Paradex are building on 0x. Radar Relay has a functioning beta.

Why Worry?

I’m concerned that cryptocurrencies and blockchains might create more problems for society than they solve in the absence of broad systemic reforms, mainly in the areas of governance and voting, public education, and journalism/news media. Building secure blockchains will not ensure they are used responsibly, or with the intent of benefitting humanity.

A world where a majority of the population chooses to trust closed, private blockchains could give a frightening amount of power to corrupt or incompetent governments and corporations. There are legitimate concerns about how open blockchains might be used to fund harmful activity, and harsh regulations could reduce their utility.

Sir Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web, recently expressed concern about what the Web has become, and is also worried that blockchains will be misused.

I’m excited by everything happening in this space, but would like to see more discussion about how the technology might change our society in the long term.

“Blockchains are not toys. They aren’t get rich quick schemes. They aren’t a shiny tool for automating your business processes. They are powerful technology that have the potential to do unspeakable harm. But they can also provide the basis for solutions to serious global problems.” — Vlad Zamfir, Etheruem researcher

Recommended reading/watching on blockchains and society:

Nick Szabo — Money, blockchains, and social scalability

Taylor Pearson — The Blockchain Man

Balaji Srinivasan — The Network State

Vitalik Buterin and Naval Ravikant — Decentralizing Everything