From the March-April 2016 Issue of Road & Track

Make no mistake: When the fully autonomous car becomes a reality, it will be the death of the automobile industry as we know it. I'm sorry, but that's inevitable.

Right now, we're enjoying the autonomous features increasingly prevalent in conventional cars. But when we really get to the point where we have individually programmable but standardized transportation modules moving on the freeway with a whole snake of vehicles at 150 mph, brands will no longer matter. What is the reason for being in a BMW module or a Mercedes module? Especially since you get a different one every time you dial it up on your device? For automakers, that's the scary part.

If the federal government leaves room for differentiation and people still choose to own these things, as opposed to calling them when they need them, then it's possible some marques will survive. But in urban centers, I don't think many people will want to own. If you look at the congestion around major cities, you see that car ownership just doesn't work anymore. We can't keep adding lanes. We see, basically, this model in the form of Uber. Uber is simply autonomous vehicles with a driver.

Thirty years ago, I honestly thought the feds would regulate the auto industry into total blandness. But I didn't have the same sense of inevitability that I do with this autonomous thing, because, back then, human ingenuity was still in charge. It was still up to the leaders of the automobile industry to provide a more attractive car than the competition, whatever the scenario. But in a situation where the brand motive for purchase goes away and the perceived performance motive goes away? Boy, that's a tough one.

The automobile will remain a gigantic industry, now as a sports instrument or as a vehicle for enjoyment.

The automobile will remain a gigantic industry, now as a sports instrument or as a vehicle for enjoyment. Consider the horse. With the advent of the car, horses were essentially banned from streets. But they made a very nice comeback on private property. Dude ranches, farms, riding stables, racing. I think the same thing can and will happen to the automobile. Independent driving will become the equivalent of going to an upmarket horse event on a weekend. At places like Monticello Motor Club in New York and Autobahn Country Club near Chicago, you can enjoy your car.

I don't see all this happening in the near term, because the fully autonomous model is going to require massive government investment and oversight. Once we get past piston engine-powered cars and into battery-powered modules, we're going to need some form of inductive charging on the freeways, so that the vehicles charge themselves or at least maintain the charge and only use the battery for the last five miles. And just like the FAA mandates that every airplane have a transponder, the feds are going to have to mandate that every car have one.

That whole system, I'm convinced, is 30 years away. Probably the biggest chance we have of this not happening is a lack of sufficient prosperity to bring it about. Which is an alternative none of us likes.

Bob Lutz has been The Man at several car companies, so your problems are cake. Bring 'em on.

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