Changes in the relationship between the United States and Cuba have come fast and furious since the December 2014 announcement by the Obama administration that diplomatic relations would resume between the two former foes.

The opening of the U.S. embassy in Havana last summer cemented President Obama’s goal to embark on a course in stark contrast from previous administrations by normalizing the lines of communications with the Castro regime. Mr. Obama’s actions mark the most significant modifications to our foreign policy since the Eisenhower Administration severed relations with Cuba in the 1960s.

For many Cuban and American entrepreneurs — and those who have been long secluded — this is an exciting time. There is potential for expanding U.S. commerce and exchange of democratic ideas; there is potential for change within the Cuban government itself. However, South Florida’s elected officials, police and city administrators should be concerned about how any change in Cuba will impact their respective jurisdictions.

Miami is the adoptive home of the Cuban diaspora. There are more than one million residents of Cuban descent living in its metropolitan area. Most South Florida residents can remember the 1980 Mariel boatlift that brought 125,000 Cubans to the U.S. in a six-month period and the impact that it had on Miami. The city was not logistically ready to handle the mass influx and the strain refugees placed on our local services, both governmental and private. The lack of emergency housing combined with the limited availability of social services compounded the effects of the population explosion. The Miami Police Department (MPD) was caught undermanned and unprepared to manage the need for additional police services. The department lacked a plan that would aid the police leadership to respond effectively. The lack of a comprehensive response plan may have played a role in the rise of violent crime that plagued the city streets and labeled Miami as the most dangerous city in America for most of the decade.

In 1980 Cuban refugees were sheltered in the Orange Bowl

In 1994, the “Balseros” or rafters crisis witnessed 30,000 Cuban immigrants crossing the Florida straits over a one-month period. It had all the makings of a second Mariel. It took intervention by Federal officials, who mitigated a deal with the Cuban government to end the migration and limit the impact on the local landscape. However, Miami still failed to come up with a plan to respond, despite the previous devastating impact of the 1980 boatlift. The situation led to the 1996 amendment to the Cuban Adjustment Act, better known as the “wet-foot/ dry-foot policy,” by the Clinton Administration. The policy allowed Cubans who reach U.S. soil - regardless of method of entry - to claim asylum and relief benefits. Both cases highlight the misunderstanding and unpreparedness of Miami’s local government’s response to the impact caused by changes in Cuba.

1994 Cuban “Balseros” nearing the U.S. shore

Federal officials report a spike in the number of Cubans trying to reach U.S. soil since the changes in 2015. Custom and Border Patrol reported a 78 percent increase compared to 2014. One reason for the rise in numbers is the increasing fears of Cuban nationals over what’s to come of U.S. relations. At this point, it is unclear if the current shifts in diplomatic relations might prompt another mass exodus from the island nation to U.S. shores. Nevertheless, it is imperative that municipal jurisdictions be cognizant of the possibility for local impacts due to changes in Cuba. Miami officials must understand the potential impact changes in Cuba could have on the city and recognize the need for action.

In February 2016, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) published the National Preparedness System (NPS). The NPS “provides a unified approach and common terminology to plan for all-threats and hazards and across all mission areas.” The system allows homeland security practitioners and emergency managers to get an overview of the planning architecture and process to enable a consistent approach to address risk and keep their communities safe in accordance with the National Preparedness Goal of keeping our nation secure and resilient.

Miami area administrators should start taking proactive measures to prepare their respective departments for the Cuban impact. They could start by following FEMA recommendations and guidelines as described in the Comprehensive Preparedness Guide (CPG) 101 to prepare an emergency operations plan that will:

· Conduct community-based planning that engages the whole community by using a planning process that represents the actual population in the community and involves community leaders and the private sector in the planning process

· Ensure plans are developed through an analysis of risk

· Identify operational assumptions and resource demands

· Prioritize plans and planning efforts to support their seamless transition from development to execution for any threat or hazard

· Integrate and synchronize efforts across all levels of government.

Law enforcement executives and emergency planners should take a structured and comprehensive look at the local response to developing changes in Cuba. Such a process must be flexible to adapt to various scenarios. NPS recommends:

Form a Collaborative Planning Team Understand the Situation Determine Goals and Objectives Plan Development Plan Preparation, Review and Approval Plan Implementation and Maintenance

Miami needs a plan now to prepare its emergency operations, build relationships leading towards unity of effort, and lay the foundation for effective problem solving on a strategic, operational, and tactical level.

Let’s not let history repeat itself.

WeSeeHSE: Seeing, Sharing, Informing

For additional information please see the below links:

http://www.uscg.mil/history/articles/uscg_mariel_history_1980.asp

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article1980199.html

https://www.fema.gov/national-preparedness-system

https://www.fema.gov/national-preparedness-goal

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/12/10/cuban-immigration-to-u-s-surges-as-relations-warm/

WeSeeHSE: Seeing, Sharing, Informing