The days dwindle down to a precious few ... not.

It's September, that magic month when the "Surge" was either going to show some real political and military results, or the Washington Punditocracy assured us the withdrawals would begin. So what are they saying now? Behold ... and marvel.

The GAO says that Iraq is failing fifteen of eighteen benchmarks. (That's a test score of 17 out of a possible 100, for the arithmetically inclined among you - and 70 or below is usually considered flunking.) We're empowering Shi'ite sheikhs to scour Al Anbar province while al Maliki cozies up to Iran. But the response to this total political failure is not a bipartisan, Dave Broder-led call for withdrawal. (Anyone surprised?) Instead, the call is for the overthrow of the democratically elected government in favor of Allawi - a move which renders the September date meaningless, and which was given bipartisan cover by Sens. Clinton and Levin.

Oh, it's a long, long while from May to December, says the old Kurt Weill song, but the days grow short when you reach September.

What about the other measure of "Surge" success - the death rate? The LA Times writes:



Bombings, sectarian slayings and other violence related to the war killed at least 1,773 Iraqi civilians in August, the second month in a row that civilian deaths have risen, according to government figures obtained Friday.

Pretty clear, right? Seven-plus months into the Surge, violence is going up. Obviously the Times reporter hadn't received his spin memo, but it was a different story at the Associated press. Here's how the AP rigs the numbers:



A huge suicide attack in northern Iraq caused civilian deaths to rise slightly in August despite security gains elsewhere, making it the second deadliest month for Iraqis since the U.S. troop buildup began, figures compiled by The Associated Press showed Saturday ... The August total included 520 people killed in quadruple suicide bombings near the Syrian border on Aug. 14, the deadliest day since the war began in March 2003 ... U.S. deaths last month remained well below figures from last winter, when the U.S began dispatching 30,000 additional troops to Iraq.

Let's list the deceptions this text throw our way, shall we?

They imply that if not for those August 14 bombings the picture would be rosy: 520 in a country of 20 million (and falling rapidly). For them, that's the equivalent of two or three 9/11's. Should we forget about 9/11, too? That aside, without Aug. 14 there would have been 1,289 deaths that month, less than July - but more than June.

They ignore seasonal variations in death rates: We've been through this before. Death rates in an insurrection have seasonal variations, so comparing July to December is deceptive. Kevin Drum has provided seasonally-adjusted figures to show just how bad the situation has become.

They ascribe all the changes in death rates to the "Surge," when other factors are involved: This is especially true of those "security gains elsewhere" the AP mentions. They mean Al Anbar province, which is being "pacified" as the result of a Faustian bargain with tribal forces - a process that was underway before the Surge - and one that will have disastrous long-term political consequences. More here.

The AP goes on to say that "American officials have maintained that violence is declining in Iraq in the run-up to a series of reports to Congress this month that will decide the course of the U.S. military presence here."

Yeah, they do maintain that ... but the numbers says that violence is going up. How's a reporter going to maintain access with an inconvenient fact like that to report? You've just seen how.

When the autumn weather turns the leaves to flame, the song says, one hasn't got time for the waiting game. But then, Kurt Weill was never a DC insider. The "Surge" will continue.

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RJ Eskow at the Huffington Post

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About author Richard (RJ) Eskow, a consultant and writer, is a Senior Fellow with the Campaign for America's Future. This post was produced as part of the



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Richard (RJ) Eskow, a consultant and writer, is a Senior Fellow with the Campaign for America's Future. This post was produced as part of the Curbing Wall Street project. Richard blogs at: