Risks around Ukraine seem to be building at present.

First, we are rapidly approaching the date of elections – with presidential elections due by March 2019, and with the field thus far appearing wide open. Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is currently topping the polls but still only in the low teens in terms of support from declared voters. She is then followed by a veritable bevvy of mostly male contenders, including incumbent President Petro Poroshenko, with only single digit support. And at this stage Poroshenko looks set to face an uphill battle to secure re-election, which does suggest that the policy orientation of the incumbent administration will further shift from reform to a more populist vent.