March 3, 2015

By Bruce Anderson and David Coletto

According to a new Abacus Data random telephone survey of 653 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador conducted from February 17 to 25, 2015, the NL Liberals continue to hold a large lead over the PC Party.

The Liberals lead the Tories by 25-points with support for the Liberals at 57% among committed voters compared with 32% for the Tories and 9% for the NDP. Liberal support is up 9-points since August, while the PC support is down 2, and NDP support is down 5.

More concerning for the PC Party is the finding that fewer eligible voters would even consider voting PC. Four in ten eligible voters said they would consider voting PC while 48% said they would not consider voting PC. That is an eleven point decrease from August 2014.. This compared with 65% of eligible voters who said they would consider voting Liberal.

Other findings from the survey include:

– 72% think the Liberals will win the next NL election; 15% picked the PCs and 2% picked the NDP

– Top provincial issues: economy/jobs (27%), healthcare (20%), budget deficit (13%).39% think NL is headed in the right direction; 40% think it is off on the wrong track.

– Impression of Liberal leader Dwight Ball – 47% positive, 30% neutral, 13% negative

– Impression of PC leader Paul Davis – 32% positive, 36% neutral, 26% negative

– 51% approved of Premier Davis’ dispute with the federal government over the CETA

– 54% approved of the decision to reduce number of seats in House of Assembly from 48 to 40

– 65% of those who voted PC in 2011, but now support another party or undecided say there is nothing the PC Party can do that would make them support it again.

Federally, the Liberal Party of Canada holds a commanding 35-point lead over the Conservative Party in Newfoundland and Labrador among committed voters. 58% of committed voters said they would vote Liberal if an election was held at the time of survey, compared with 23% for the Conservatives and 16% for the NDP.

Near the end of the survey, respondents were asked who – NDP MP Ryan Cleary or Liberal candidate Seamus O’Regan running in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl – would they rather see representing NL ‘s interests in Ottawa. Cleary edged out O’Regan across the province 40% to 36%. On the Avalon Peninsula and in St. John’s Cleary’s lead was six-points over O’Regan.

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey was conducted with 653 eligible voters living in Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey was completed from February 17 to 25, 2015.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 653 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 3.9%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

Download the full report (pdf)