MILWAUKEE, Wis. (SPECTRUM NEWS) - An updated projection Tuesday has shifted the potential peak for the coronavirus crisis in Wisconsin to the end of April, carrying through the first week of May.

That projection is roughly three weeks earlier than the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) predicted on Sunday, showing a steeper spike to the curve and forecasting a death toll in Wisconsin of more than 900 people.

As of Tuesday afternoon, the IHME at the University of Washington now shows peak resource use could hit beginning on April 27 and the state might not face a shortage of hospital beds statewide (note: the analysis does not take into account that Milwaukee County alone is dealing with roughly half of the state's cases, potentially putting a strain on specific facilities there going forward).

While Wisconsin may not deal with an overall shortage of beds, the IHME analysis predicts that the Badger State will need 379 ICU beds at the peak of the crisis, which would currently be 207 ICU beds short.

The projection also now predicts that 935 Wisconsinites will die due to complications tied to Covid-19 by August 4, up from Sunday's projection of 853.

You can view the latest interactive projections here.

ORIGINAL STORY SUNDAY - A new projection from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington shows Wisconsin's coronavirus crisis will peak sometime around May 22.

While the analysis shows Wisconsin likely won't deal with a sweeping shortage of hospital beds, thanks in part to the state's current Safer at Home order and ongoing social distancing practices, the death toll is projected to top 800 in Wisconsin alone.



As of Sunday morning, statistics from the Department of Health Services and Milwaukee County Health Department put Wisconsin's death toll tied to the coronvirus at 18.

The projection from IHME shows that Wisconsin is likely to suffer 853 deaths by August 4, with 13 deaths per day by the state's peak weak for the virus between May 15 through May 22.



The national peak is projected in the same analysis by April 14.

While the numbers cited are the most likely projections, the analysis does offer a wider range of forecast outcomes tied to a range of factors. For instance, while IHME anticipates that 1,358 will be hospitalized in May, the range of potential hospitalizations goes from fewer than 100 to more than 3,000.



To go through the IHME's projections, click here.