In a single comprehensive model, using a large nationally representative sample, we investigate longitudinal relationships between mental distress and “Big Six” personality using an analysis approach sensitive to dynamic effects (i.e., to effects of deviations from individual trajectories). We find that, consistent with a mechanism involving scarring by distress, upward deviations (flare-ups) in distress predict flare-ups in Neuroticism 12 months later. Among younger adults ( n = 4,775), distress flare-ups predict dips in Conscientiousness. Consistent with a dynamic precursor model, (a) flare-ups in Neuroticism and Extraversion predict subsequent flare-ups in distress among older adults ( n = 11,167), and (b) slopes of distress correlate with slopes of a number of traits (e.g., positively for Neuroticism, and, among older adults, negatively for Extraversion). While demonstrating these scarring and dynamic precursor effects, we draw attention to a nuanced direction of dynamic effect for Extraversion, a newly discovered dynamic effect of Conscientiousness, and previously undocumented dynamic effects of traits on each other.

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