All through the Bush years, the refrain from the party in power was "deficits don't matter."

Then the economy collapsed.

Then the other party came to power.

And suddenly the vanquished party became obsessed with the country's massive deficit and wanted to immediately slash spending--and, bizarrely, cut taxes--to fix it.

And that will likely be the Republicans' message throughout the coming campaign.

So here's a question:

If Romney wins, will the Republicans immediately reverse course and revert back to "deficits don't matter"?

They're going to have to.

Because the first thing that President Romney will likely do is retroactively eliminate "Taxmageddon"--the confluence of the expiration of the Bush tax cuts and some temporary stimulus measures that threatens to take a big bite out of economic growth (and the deficit) starting January 1.

And extending the Bush tax cuts and stimulus will instantly balloon the deficit again.

If Romney were also going to take a hatchet to government spending, he might be able to mute the impact on the deficit, but he won't.

Why not?

Because he's no fool.

Romney has seen what the UK and other European countries that tried "austerity" did to their economies. And what President in his right mind would want to kick off his Presidency by destroying the economy and putting millions of people out of work?

So here's a prediction:

If Romney wins, the Republican party is going to re-embrace the Bush-Cheney doctrine: Deficits Don't Matter.

(We're poking fun at Republicans here, but the Democrats need to take a look in the mirror, too. The federal government is currently spending a lot more as a percent of GDP than it normally does. That can't continue, unless the plan is to radically increase taxes. See charts below.)

SEE ALSO: IT'S OFFICIAL: Keynes Was Right

Here's the problem in charts:

First, federal government spending: It increased every year under Bush and then flattened under Obama.

Federal government spending under Bush and Obama. St. Louis Fed

Next, the federal deficit: We went from surplus to deficit under Bush and then to a huge deficit under Obama.

Next, federal tax receipts: Importantly, the reason the deficit ballooned under Obama has not been the increase in federal spending--that was modest and has now flattened. The reason for the huge deficit was the collapse in tax receipts. Why? GDP shrank, and the percentage of GDP that is collected in taxes shrank.

And now here's the problem...

Romney wants to cut taxes. But taxes are already historically low as a percent of GDP -- 17%.





Meanwhile, federal government spending as a percent of GDP is at an all-time high. So unless Romney radically cuts Federal spending, Republicans are going to have to say "deficits don't matter."

SEE ALSO: The Truth About Who's Responsible For Our Massive Deficit