In the Senate, ABC election analyst Antony Green told Fairfax Media it was likely there would be 30 Coalition senators to be elected, 27 Labor senators, eight Greens senators, three Xenophon senators, three Hanson senators, and independents Jacqui Lambie and Derryn Hinch - with three Senate spots in NSW, Queensland and WA undecided. Malcolm Turnbull can say "I won fair and square". Credit:Peter Rae Coalition strategists had initially feared that re-establishing the Howard-era Australian Building and Construction Commission and setting up the Registered Organisations commission to monitor union governance, which provided the double dissolution trigger, would be more difficult because of the likely expansion of the Senate crossbench and the loss of about a dozen Coalition MPs in the lower house, But government insiders now believe they may be able to lock in at least 112 of the 114 votes needed and, depending on the results in the two undecided lower house seats of Hindmarsh and Herbert and three Senate seats, the bills are a good chance to pass in a joint sitting. Senator-elect Pauline Hanson and her two colleagues are likely to have a key say in deciding the fate of the laws.

Nationals MPs will meet in Canberra on Tuesday to thrash out their list of demands for Mr Turnbull before signing a new Coalition agreement, with no change to the plan for a same sex marriage plebiscite, federal responsibility for water to stay in deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce's Agriculture portfolio and no carbon tax on the table. Pauline Hanson's One Nation holds four seats in the new Senate. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen A sixth spot in the 30-member ministry and fifth seat in the cabinet will also be requested, as the Nationals now comprise about 20 per cent of the Coalition partyroom, up from 16 per cent. Mr Turnbull may well agree to those demands, with Queensland Senator Matthew Canavan the frontrunner to move up into the cabinet and Keith Pitt considered an outside chance, while NSW MPs Michael McCormack and Luke Hartsuyker, or Victorian Andrew Broad, are in line for the outer ministry. To pass a bill in a joint sitting, 114 of 226 MPs from the combined houses must vote for the law.

In a range of scenarios being war-gamed inside the Turnbull government, the Coalition believes it is possible it could claim 79 votes from lower house MPs, including up to 77 of its own MPs, independent Cathy McGowan, who backed the bills in the last Parliament and Xenophon MP Rebekha Sharkie, as well 30 of its own senators and the three Xenophon senators. NXT party leader Nick Xenophon has flagged support for the laws, subject to amendments. That would lock in 112 votes of the 114 votes required for an absolute majority - and mean that two more votes from any of the three One Nation senators and independent Derryn Hinch would be needed to pass the laws. There is also a chance NSW Liberal Democratic senator David Leyonhjelm, who backs the laws, will be re-elected, while a Nationals senator in Western Australia may also be elected. One Nation leader Pauline Hanson told Fairfax Media on Monday that she wanted a briefing on the two bills before making up her mind.

"I will need to have a look at the legislation, talk to all parties and until I have done that I won't make up my mind." Mr Hinch said he would talk to both sides before making up his mind on the bills. Employment Minister Michaelia Cash said that "nothing has altered the government's commitment to these two pieces of legislation – their passage through the Parliament will deliver significant benefits to all Australians and they therefore remain priorities for the Turnbull Coalition." Follow James Massola on Facebook