Brace yourselves: Fall is coming (and so are the tourists)

CULLOWHEE – Where other destinations see ups and downs in tourism growth, a new study from Western Carolina University has found an anomaly taking place in 21 North Carolina mountain counties.

The tourists just keep coming.

“If you look at places like Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and Panama City Beach in Florida, they have peaks and valleys around their tourism growth,” said Steve Morse, economist and director of the Hospitality and Tourism program at WCU’s College of Business. “What we are seeing here is continually growing tourism, which is very unusual.”

This October, that growth is expected to continue.

For the third year in a row, students in Morse’s senior-level “Tourism Strategies” class are predicting a noticeable increase in hotel occupancy rates for the 21 gateway counties that border the Great Smoky Mountains National Park.

To make their prediction, students analyzed data supplied by Smith Travel Research, a leading source of information for the hospitality industry, and considered the impact falling gasoline prices, an increase in festivals and events, new marketing materials and fall color forecasts could have on Western North Carolina.

Morse said while tourists may come to Western North Carolina to see the leaves, many will choose to stay and then come back because of other activities in the region.

“Approximately 7 out of 10 tourists are repeat tourists. That is telling me that 7 out of 10 tourists are getting and seeing value for their dollar, getting a good experience and like what they get enough to want to come back for it again,” Morse said. “During these economic times, people are looking for value-friendly destinations.”

Part of that added value happens when tourists fuel up for their destinations.

According to the U.S. Energy Administration, gas prices in the Southeast are expected to be about 22 percent lower now than they were this time last year.

“That’s important because we are a drive-to destination,” Morse said. “The lower gas prices in 2015 means that the average family has an additional $1,100 to spend in disposable income that they are not spending on gas.”

Those lower gas prices might help extend the tourism season in McDowell County.

“We’ve seen an increase in our Charlotte, Winston-Salem and Raleigh visits. Even though they are closer, I think more people are coming up and will be staying with us a little bit longer with those gas prices,” said Carol Price, executive director of the McDowell County Tourism Development Authority. “We’re a good starting point for people. We’re the gateway into the Blue Ridge.”

Last year, 13.9 million people visited the Blue Ridge Parkway and an estimated 10.1 million people visited the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, according to figures reported by the National Park Service.

That connection to the Blue Ridge Parkway is something Price said McDowell County has been putting a greater emphasis on in its marketing materials this year, and even in its own personal brand.

Earlier this year, the McDowell County Tourism Development Authority decided to adopt a new logo and signage that prominently uses the phrase “Blue Ridge Traveler.”

“By being at a lower elevation, in parts of the county, it helps us in terms of having a range of activity with outdoor recreations pretty much available year-round. We’re trying to focus particularly on the outdoors. We have wonderful waterfalls, hiking trails and a lot of other outdoor things,” Price said.

The WCU study predicts McDowell, Burke, Madison, Mitchell and Yancey counties will see a 5 percent increase in tourism in large part due to both its proximity to the Blue Ridge Parkway and the declining cost of gas.

For Buncombe and Henderson counties, the WCU study forecasts tourism growth to be 4.2 percent this October. Morse said even though 4.2 percent growth is not the largest growth predicted in the study, it’s nothing to ignore.

“A 4.2 percent increase for this October over last year is a very significant uptick for an already-strong tourism market in the Buncombe and Henderson areas,” Morse said. “They have launched new destination advertising and promotions programs and have extended their media reach into new feeder cities, with an increase in festivals and events around the growing craft beer industry.”

Cat Kessler, the online content manager for the Asheville Convention and Visitors Bureau, said Asheville has TV spots in nine markets: Atlanta, Raleigh, Durham, the Triangle, the Triad, Charlotte, Charleston, South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina, Nashville, Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee and Cincinnati, Ohio.

Kessler said the fall leaf season is something the entire region can capitalize on this October.

“Fall color is not a flash in the pan event. It’s not going to peak in mid-October and then be done. It’s very much a full season because of the biology of our trees and the range in elevation. That’s central to our message. There’s always color to see somewhere,” Kessler said, noting it’s why the Asheville CVB works with experts to create a weekly fall color report.

Further west, the tourism market is expected to get even bigger this October.

The WCU study points to the opening of Harrah’s Cherokee River Valley Casino in Murphy along with increased entertainment options this fall at Harrah’s Cherokee Casino and Resort as key drivers.

“Over the last 18 months, tourism has been extremely strong,” said Jason Lambert, director of commerce for the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians. “Locally in Cherokee, both our gaming and nongaming numbers are extremely strong. Last year was one of the strongest we’ve had in the past 15.”

For the first time, Cherokee will be expanding its TV broadcast and radio advertising, and the creative isn’t focused on the reservation or Harrah’s. Instead, Lambert said, it’s a nod to what makes Western North Carolina such a special place to visit.

“It focuses specifically on that fall color season. It’s something new that we haven’t really done before,” Lambert said. “But I think that these efforts are important because I think we will continue to see tourism as a key driver of our economy and our region’s economy. It brings in outside dollars that we can then turn into services for our community.”

In the tourism study, the WCU students divided 21 WNC counties into five groups, examined the total number of hotel rooms sold and the overall occupancy rates for October 2014; compared weekday and weekend occupancy rates from last October; and determined the average change in the number of hotel nights sold for October during the previous three years.

The students’ predictions for North Carolina regions:

• Region 1 – Cherokee, Clay, Graham and Macon counties: A 5.2 percent increase in October 2015 tourism compared to last October.

• Region 2 – Haywood, Jackson, Transylvania and Swain counties: A 4.4 percent increase in October 2015 tourism compared to last October.

• Region 3 – Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Caldwell, Watauga and Wilkes counties: A 5 percent increase in October 2015 tourism compared to last October.

• Region 4 – Burke, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell and Yancey counties: A 5 percent increase in October 2015 tourism compared to last October.

• Region 5 – Buncombe and Henderson counties: A 4.2 percent increase in October 2015 tourism compared to last October.

For the first time, the students also made predictions for the three Tennessee counties:

Sevier County: A 4.2 increase in October 2015 tourism compared to last October.

Blount and Monroe counties: A 4.1 increase in October 2015 tourism compared to last October.