posted by HolyMaster

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EG and VG (10-3)

DK and iG (9-5)

Cloud9 (8-5)

Liquid (8-6)

Na'Vi.ua (7-6)

Titan and Newbee (7-7)

LGD (6-8)

Alliance, Fnatic, Mousesports (5-8)

Empire and Na'Vi.us (5-9)

Arrow Gaming (2-11)

The most important fact first: No, Empire and Na'Vi.US are not eliminated yet. Nevertheless both's faith depends on multiple other results now besides their own.Some crazy scenarios are possible: A six way tie for #10-15, a five way tie for #1-5 or #3-7 or #5-9. Most of the teams can still end up in very different scenarios. But let's go from top to bottom.The situation for these two leaders is quite comfortable. In order to secure a top two position, EG (up against DK and Alliance) and VG (Arrow and iG) only need to win one out of the two remaining games.If EG loses both games, they're tied with DK at 10-5. If VG loses both games, they're tied with iG at 10-5. If the same happens to both, all four of those teams will battle out the top positions. Furthermore Cloud9 can join the mix by beating LGD and Fnatic. If this 5 way tie happens, EG or VG might even drop out of the top four.Both iG and DK are currently sitting at 3 and 4, but they both have only one match remaining, and that is against the top two. Moving up is possible as well as moving down, but their faith is not only in their own hands.As already described above, DK and iG can challenge the top 2, if EG/VG lose both games.If iG wins its final game, but DK does not, iG has a top 4 placement ensured. The same happens the other way around. If both of them win the final game, Cloud9 can still ruin the party by beating LGD and Fnatic, enforcing a three (or more, if EG and/or VG lose twice) way tie with the bottom team only placing fifth.If iG or DK lose the last match, Liquid and Na'Vi become relevant. If Liquid beats Mouz and Na'Vi takes down both Newbee and Alliance, iG/DK might even drop down to the seventh position. That means that the two Chinese giants are not 100% through to KeyArena yet.With two games remaining (against LGD and Fnatic), there are still a variety of possibilities for C9.If C9 wins both, a top 2 placement is not impossible: For that to happen, EG and/or VG need to lose both of their final games, and C9 has to come out on top of the following tiebreak. On the other hand a 10-5 score at the end does not guarantee a top 4 placement - things can still go wrong, if both iG and DK take a victory.Winning one of the two games to finish at 9-6 is still enough to fight for top 4, if either iG or DK do not win. But victories from Liquid and Na'Vi (as described above for DK/iG) can still endanger top 6.If C9 loses both games, they're definitely going into a tiebreak for top 6. This tie would definitely include the winner of Na'Vi vs. Newbee (maybe even both, if Newbee wins, but Na'Vi beats Alliance) and possibly also Titan (if they beat Fnatic). If Liquid loses to Mouz, they join the tie as well to fight for 5th and 6th; otherwise only the 6th place is up for grabs.Also 8 wins, but only one game remaining (against Mousesports). A top 4 placement is possible, if only one out of the iG/DK/C9 trio goes up to 10-5. A win for Liquid does not secure top 6 though, since up to 7 teams can still reach that mark (C9 and Na'Vi).If Liquid loses, they're definitely going into a tiebreak for top 6. This tie would definitely include the winner of Na'Vi vs. Newbee (maybe even both, if Newbee wins, but Na'Vi beats Alliance) and possibly also Titan (if they beat Fnatic). If C9 loses both games, they join the tie as well to fight for 5th and 6th; otherwise only the 6th place is up for grabs.Na'Vi is still facing Newbee and Alliance. Especially the Newbee match is interesting, since both are in the same region of the scoreboard. Two victories bring a high possiblity of still entering the top 6, wins from C9 and Liquid can force a tiebreak for that though. Even top 4 is possible, if iG and DK lose. At least the 7th place is guaranteed.If Na'Vi wins one of the games (preferably the one against Newbee) and goes 8-7, they might still go into a tiebreak for top six. This requires Liquid and/or C9 to lose all games (in Liquid's case just one). Titan might join the mix as well by beating Fnatic. Newbee comes in addition, if they're the ones beating Na'Vi while Alliance takes the loss.If Na'Vi loses both games, the top 10 is not safe anymore. LGD can go 7-8 by beating C9. Alliance can go 7-8 by also winning against EG. Mouz can go 7-8 by beating Na'Vi.us and Liquid. Fnatic can go 7-8 by beating Titan and C9 - at least that would have the advantage of Titan also being part of the large tiebreak, granting top 10 slots for the top 3 of this tiebreak instead of just the top 2. Nevertheless, a 7-8 record might also be enough to advance directly.We have reached the middle of the scoreboard. THe last match for Titan (against Fnatic) and Newbee (against Na'Vi) will decide, wether the final score is positive or negative. A victory makes a top 6 placement possible, if Liquid and/or C9 don't grab another win.A loss for either of those teams would mean that the top 10 is not safe anymore. LGD can go 7-8 by beating C9. Alliance can go 7-8 by also winning against EG. Mouz can go 7-8 by beating Na'Vi.us and Liquid. Fnatic can go 7-8 by beating Titan and C9. If both Titan and Newbee lose, there are three top 10 slots available in that tiebreak. If only Newbee loses, it's just two slots. If only Titan loses, it's two or three, depending on wether Na'Vi beats Alliance. Nevertheless, a 7-8 record might also be enough to advance directly.The last match against Cloud9 is crucical for LGD. But they're depending on other results as well.If LGD wins, they are at least in a tiebreak for top 8. This can be challenged by Alliance, Fnatic, and Mousesports. If anyone from this trio wins both of its last two games, LGD is not through directly, but has to go through a tiebreak. In the worst case (Titan, Newbee, and Na'Vi all take their 8th point), only one slot is fought for. Up to two from those trio might end up with 7-8 as well though, makig the possible tiebreak a little easier with two or three top 10 slots being free.If LGD loses, they still have a chance to get into a tie with 6-9. The top 9 already has at least 7 wins, so this would really be only about the 10th position. In order for LGD to stay alive in this case, not one of the Alliance/Fnatic/Mouz trio is allowed to win both of their games. Everyone of those to win one out of two will tie with LGD for the 10th position. Empire (by beating Arrow) and Na'Vi.us (by beating Mouz; Mouz can still join by beating Liquid instead) might become a part of it as well. Even a six way tie for only one top 10 placement is possible.These three teams still have it in their own hands to enter the top 10, be it with or without a tiebreak. Alliance has to beat Na'Vi and EG, Mouz is up against Na'Vi.us and Liquid, and Fnatic is facing Titan and C9. If only one of them manages to do that while LGD is also losing to C9, this team is directly through. If more than one of them does it, a tiebreak has to decide. If Fnatic wins both, Titan is definitely in the tie as well which opens up an additional slot. Either Na'Vi or Newbee might join as well from the upper half to make tie larger but easier (since more of the involved teams make it throug).One additional loss will not automatically mean the end for Alliance/Fnatic/Mouz. In this case the teams have to hope, that the other two do not get the double victory either. LGD has to lose its game in addition. If that happens, a 6-9 tie for the 10th position occurs, including LGD as well as any of these three teams who went 1-1. Empire (by beating Arrow) and Na'Vi.us (by beating Mouz; Mouz can still join by beating Liquid instead) might become a part of it as well. Even a six way tie for only one top 10 placement is possible.If anyone of these three teams loses both games on the final day, it is definitely out of the tournament.Also at 5 wins, but only one game remaining. It's not looking good for this duo. But they're not completely out yet. Wining the last game is of course an absolute must, but even then the chances are not good.9 teams already have 7 wins or more. This mark is impossible to reach for these two teams. Empire has to beat Arrow to go 6-9, Na'Vi is up against Mouz. If they do that, they have to hope for none of the bottom 7 teams to get the 7th victory. That requires:- LGD loses against C9- Alliance loses to Na'Vi.ua or EG (preferably both)- Fnatic loses to Titan or C9 (perferably both)- Mouz loses to Na'Vi.us or Titan (automatically achieved for Na'Vi.us by winning themselves)If all that comes together Empire and/or Na'Vi come into a tiebreak for the last ticket into the next stage. The size of it is very uncertain. Best case scenario is only a two way tie with LGD, requiring only one additional win. The other extreme is a six way tie that includes both of them, LGD, Alliance, Fnatic, and Mouz.Arrow is the only team who today's matches are meaningless for. They are definitely out of The International. Even a top 14 placement (which would mean prize money) is not possible anymore. Arrow will definitely finish 16th. Let's hope they give their best against VG and Empire nontheless in the spirit of a fair sport.