Consumers see more inflation ahead. That views puts them at odds with Federal Reserve officials and private sector economists.

According to Friday’s consumer sentiment survey released by Reuters/University of Michigan, inflation expectations have been rising since late summer. Back in September, U.S. consumers expected the inflation rate one year out to hit 2.2%. In early-February, the one-year expected inflation rate is up to 3.4%.

Contrast that rate with the tamer forecasts at the Fed and among private economists.

On Wednesday, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke told the House Budget Committee that “inflation is expected to persist below the levels that Federal Reserve policymakers have judged to be consistent over the longer term with our statutory mandate to foster maximum employment and price stability.”

That would suggest that the Fed expects consumer inflation will remain below 2% this year. The headline consumer price index rose 1.5% during 2010, while the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up only 0.8%.

Meanwhile, economists polled by the Fed Bank of Philadelphia expect top-line inflation will rise to only 1.7% by the end of this year, and core prices will increase by a mere 1.3%.

How can households be more hawkish about inflation than the Fed?

Much of the dichotomy reflects which prices are in focus. The Fed and economists tend to pay attention to core inflation, which ignores food and energy and which better reflects underlying economic conditions. Households pay more attention to the items most frequently bought, in particular gasoline and groceries.

Gas prices have been unusually burdensome this winter. Normally, gas prices fall or level off during the low-driving months of the winter. But prices have increased 34 cents since early November.

Some relief on energy prices will come now that the protests in Egypt seem to have come to a non-violent end. Oil prices fell Friday once President Hosni Mubarak threw in the towel. But it will take a while for lower spot oil prices to reduce the retail price of a gallon of gas.

The Mubarak-related swings in oil prices, however, illustrate that prices for commodities like petroleum and foodstuffs are very often outside the control of monetary policy. The Fed can’t reduce tension in the Middle East nor can it make it rain in wheat-producing sections of Russia.

If the inflation split continues, however, Fed officials may find themselves criticized for ignoring the stress on household budgets. Members of Congress are likely to press Fed officials on whether the central bank is behind the curve on inflation.

In one respect, higher price expectations among consumers are good for the Fed because they will lift demand further.

Economists at Royal Bank of Scotland note that consumers in early-February reported more favorable buying conditions for autos and large household goods, reflecting the fact that shoppers felt that prices would move higher.

“In other words, get it now before it gets more expensive,” the RBS economists say.

Stronger demand should finally get businesses into hiring mode. Weak job growth remains the big drag on this recovery, one that has been the primary focus for the Fed and consumers.

But attitudes can change quickly. Households–buffeted by sticker shock at the gas pump and produce aisle–might move inflation worries to the forefront sooner than the Fed does.