Revenge games. Thursday has them. Or chances for them, anyway. Duke has a chance to pay back Notre Dame for…well, there are way too many losses to count lately, right? In fact, since Notre Dame has joined the ACC, Duke has beaten the Irish just once.

That once was a pretty resounding one, but it’s still just once. Duke made all of the shots yesterday; can the hot shooting continue against a Notre Dame defense that is porous, but a Notre Dame offense that is going to get theirs? It had better, if Duke is going to advance – or Duke could just go home and get a good nap in before the NCAA Tournament starts. Metaphorically, of course.

North Carolina will face a Pitt team trying to get revenge from an earlier beating this season – of course, maybe UNC is still getting revenge for the 2014 ACC Tournament. Okay, now I have a headache.

NO. 1 NORTH CAROLINA (25-6, 14-4 ACC) VS. NO. 8 PITTSBURGH (21-10, 9-9 ACC)

Time: 12:00 p.m.

TV: WRAL

#ANALYSIS

The last game between these two teams wasn’t much of one. But these two teams are weird. No two games between them, seemingly, are the same. Blowout UNC win, blowout UNC loss have been the last two games. But the two before that in 2014 were a narrow UNC win at home and a narrow Pitt win in the ACC Tournament by just five in a game that hadn’t been close at all until a late Pitt meltdown/UNC comeback in the final moments. Pitt does one thing that gives North Carolina trouble, and that’s attack the boards extremely effectively. And even if Pitt isn’t what it has been defensively under Jamie Dixon, it’s still a physical team that’s going to make you work. The upside of Pitt’s offense is incredibly high but its defense has been all over the map. And mostly in the bad part of the map.

Teams without a lot of effective size down low have suffered against Pitt (see Duke, Syracuse) because the Panthers have guys that can score and rebound effectively there. And when Pitt’s hot, they’re hard for almost anyone to defend. But can Pitt’s defense show up again against North Carolina, or will it be more of the same from the first meeting, where North Carolina did most of what it wanted on offense (except get offensive boards) while Pitt couldn’t stop turning it over? We’ll see, but no doubt the Panthers will be fired up to get yet another ACC Tournament win over the Tar Heels in Year 3 in the league.

NAMES TO KNOW

Kennedy Meeks. Just about the only thing Meeks has done well fairly consistently in conference play is defend and rebound. That’s all well and good, but when his offense has been as bad as it has, that’s going to stand out more than the defensive and rebounding numbers North Carolina puts up when he’s on the court. But the world finally saw glimpses of the Meeks he was before the bone bruise that kept him out of seven games near midseason. He had 12 points on 6-of-12 shooting to go with a season-high 14 rebounds. If North Carolina is going to win games in March, it’s going to need Meeks playing at close to his best and that means giving the Tar Heels something on offense too, but still being good on the boards.

Michael Young. The third-team All-ACC senior center had his third-worst game of the ACC season against North Carolina in the first meeting, and it’s not a coincidence that was a blowout North Carolina win. In just 24 minutes, Young had 15 points but took 13 shots to do it and had just six rebounds, which was as many turnovers as he had (and four fouls). His versatility makes him a matchup nightmare with almost anyone, even North Carolina because he can pull their bigs away from the basket with his ability to shoot from distance (though he doesn’t take a ton). He’s one of the best defensive rebounders in the league, though, and Pitt’s going to need him to keep the Tar Heels’ bigs off the boards.

NARRATIVES

North Carolina Win: No one will give the Tar Heels credit for winning this game so on to the next and hope to get a better win

North Carolina Loss: IT’S A TRAP

Pittsburgh Win: Already in the Tournament, the rest is just gravy

Pittsburgh Loss: Meh. Probably in the Tournament anyway.

PREDICTION

North Carolina, 84-76. Is this the rubber match if it’s the fifth meeting since Pitt joined the league? I’ll go ahead and say yes.

NO. 4 NOTRE DAME (20-10, 11-7 ACC) VS. NO. 5 DUKE (23-9, 11-7 ACC)

Time: 2:00 p.m.

TV: WRAL

#ANALYSIS

The first game between these two teams was as sexy a basketball game as you’re going to see. Until maybe yesterday’s second-round game between NC State and Duke. No, actually, this one was right up there. And now I’m anticipating tomorrow’s rematch with the same eagerness and excitement that I did my first real date. This game can only let us all down, right? Let’s hope not. But if there’s any team who will be up to the challenge, it will be Notre Dame. Mike Brey started off Notre Dame’s ACC tenure by going 6-12 in the ACC and 1-5 against the North Carolina ACC teams. He’s 25-11 in the last two seasons in ACC play and 11-1 against the North Carolina teams. It’s not an exact science, obviously.

And if Notre Dame wants to beat Duke, it has to hope for two things – 1. That its own porous defense isn’t too problematic and 2. That Duke’s porous defense is still there tomorrow. Oh and that Duke made all of the shots yesterday and won’t be able to make all of the shots again today. That’s an exact basketball science. You can look it up.

Regardless, you can expect all of the points.

NAMES TO KNOW

Bonzie Colson. Speaking of all of the points, that’s what Bonzie Colson scores when he faces off against Duke, seemingly. The sophomore has 48 points in his last two games against Duke (setting a career high each time) on 17-of-28 shooting. In the most recent Duke game, Colson finished with 31 on 12-of-19 shooting (2-of-3 from three) and 11 rebounds. Colson is an odd case because he’s gone from a scoring option off the bench to having to score more re. He did that early on in ACC play but from February 20 on, he scored a total of 34 points (not coincidentally, Notre Dame went 2-3 in that stretch). If he continues to be the Duke assassin, the Blue Devils could be in trouble.

Luke Kennard. Coach K took umbrage with the notion that Kennard is up-and-down as a freshman, but the stats more or less bear that out – at least as a scorer. Kennard would follow up a big game with a pretty pedestrian game or one where he was virtually invisible. But with his 22-point outing against NC State, he has now followed up a 20-point game (which he had against North Carolina) with another 20-point game for the first time in his career.

And that’s a big deal for the extremely talented freshmen who’s often a third option behind his also-talented teammates. He had 30 points last time out against Notre Dame and followed that up with a big old goose egg against Syracuse. If he can get on a tear here and keep building confidence, watch out. When he’s on the court, Duke becomes so much harder to guard.

NARRATIVES

Notre Dame Win: I COULDN’T STAY MAD AT YOU ANYWAY

Notre Dame Loss: I TRUSTED YOU NOTRE DAME

Duke Win: Oh you guys don’t like Grayson Allen and Duke huh you didn’t want them in the Tournament anymore did ya welllllll

Duke Loss: Go to sleep, Duke, and get some rest

PREDICTION

Duke, 83-75. Do you think Coach K is aware of how many times his former assistant Mike Brey has beaten him? Because I do.

_

NO. 2 VIRGINIA (24-6, 13-5 ACC) VS. NO. 10 GEORGIA TECH (19-13, 8-10 ACC)

Time: 7:00 p.m.

TV: WRAL

#ANALYSIS

Look, Georgia Tech won a close ACC game. It’s a thing they’ve been trying lately, just to see how it works. But does that mean they’re trustworthy? Plenty about the end of that overtime win over Clemson would suggest otherwise. But hey, this is still a Georgia Tech team that has won six of the last seven (the only loss by three at Louisville) and is coming together at the right time. Sadly they get a Virginia team that…wait, what’s that? They beat Virginia the only time they played them this year? Oh. Well, I’m at least a tad intrigued. That was back when Virginia was struggling to beat anyone on the road, of course, but it was a win nonetheless. But the formula for said win was hitting 53.3 percent of its three-pointers (which has been the formula all year for beating Virginia). Is that repeatable? Meh. Color me doubtful.

Besides, Virginia does ugly much prettier than anyone.

NARRATIVES

Virginia Win: READY TO MAKE ANOTHER RUN

Virginia Loss: Well that’s embarrassing

Georgia Tech Win: Is this even good what is happening

Georgia Tech Loss: It’s over but you did your best

PREDICTION

Virginia, 75-59. Gross.

NO. 3 MIAMI (24-6, 13-5 ACC) VS. NO. 6 VIRGINIA TECH (19-13, 10-8 ACC)

Time: 9:00 p.m.

TV: WRAL

#ANALYSIS

Miami is a really good team. But the Hurricanes are on the road. What’s that you say? The ACC Tournament is being played at neutral site? Well, sort of. We saw last night that Virginia Tech is going to be at home against whomever the Hokies face here in DC. And these two teams just met, like, less than a week ago, in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech won that game pretty handily. It’s no guarantee of anything, of course, but if Miami is going to win and either secure a high seed line or get a better one, it’s going to have to do a few things: 1. Make 3’s (Miami was 4-of-24 from beyond the arc) and 2. Continue to keep Virginia Tech off the foul line. The Hokies have the highest free-throw rate in the nation and score over a quarter of their points from the stripe, second-most. But Miami limited that. They’ll need to again. Oh, and get good Angel Rodriguez, which is at times easier said than done.

NARRATIVES

Miami Win: You think Miami is going away quietly? COACH TILDE SAYS NO

Miami Loss: Well that could be problematic come seeding time

Virginia Tech Win: Virginia Tech fans be like

Virginia Tech Loss: NOOOO THIS WASN’T SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN

PREDICTION

Virginia Tech, 85-77. Home court advantage, Hokies.

Last week: 11-3

Overall: 105-36