A FORMER Stormont insider has claimed a united Ireland is “a winnable prospect for the first time” if a referendum is held Northern Ireland.

Gareth Brown, a former adviser to Members of the Legislative Assembly, pointed to an opinion poll conducted last month which showed support for Irish unity had risen by 28% since the Brexit vote in 2016 and currently stands at between 42% to 44%.

“Since the partition of Ireland in 1921, Irish nationalists have sought reunification through a referendum. Not only is that referendum now almost inevitable but, for the first time, it’s winnable,” he said in a newspaper article yesterday.

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The former SDLP staffer said the prospect of Irish unity was becoming more attractive with the economic success of the Republic and its transformation into a socially progressive nation. He added that people in Northern Ireland also doubted whether the UK Government under the influence of hardline Brexiteers was acting in their interests.

Brown wrote The Herald: “The “union of equals” rhetoric doesn’t match the actions, and people are noticing. While talking up the Union, the Government has reneged on its December commitment on a backstop in spectacularly incoherent fashion, outright rejected sensible proposals at the behest of Brexit purists, and handled the negotiations with the Scottish Government like some last-minute bartering in a game of Monopoly.

“When the time comes, and it will, when people in NI have to make a decision about their future, they will look to Dublin and they will look to London. The judgment will be on where their interests best lie and who cares most about them. On current trajectory, I’m not sure the safe money is on the Union.”

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Like Scotland, Northern Ireland voted Remain despite the country’s biggest party, the DUP, backing Leave. But since the Brexit vote, the border has become a block to the UK’s departure as the Good Friday Agreement (GFA), which established the peace process, requires there to be no physical infrastructure between the North and the Republic.

An open border is possible currently because both parts of Ireland are in the EU single market and customs union, but should the UK quit both under a hard Brexit then new border controls would be required. Under the GFA a border poll can be called if there is majority support for a united Ireland. A recent survey found 51% of people in Northern Ireland would support such a referendum.

An SDLP spokeswoman said: “The political context across Ireland has dramatically changed as result of Brexit, and with that so, too, have attitudes towards the reunification of Ireland. It is no coincidence that the impending economic devastation – alongside the threat to our reconciliation process upheld by the Good Friday Agreement, to which EU membership is the lynchpin – has resulted in an increase in numbers welcoming a border poll. However, the SDLP has been consistent in saying a border poll should not be rushed until the outcome of Brexit has been made clear.

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“For a long time, reunification was driven by political aspirations alone. However, our changing context has meant this question is now an economic one as much as anything else. As one of the fastest growing economies in the world, a new and agreed Ireland is not only politically desirable but economically achievable.

“The SDLP is committed to building a new Ireland, one home to all classes and creeds, where peoples of all religions and none can live and flourish. As this message gathers momentum, those numbers in favour of reunification are only set to rise.”