The underlying arithmetic of federal politics has finally caught up to Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau. He will be pressed by the 60 per cent of the electorate who consistently vote against the Conservatives to disclose what he plans to do to dislodge Stephen Harper if he wins a minority this fall.

For 18 months after Trudeau won the leadership, the Liberals maintained a healthy lead in the polls over the Conservatives and the NDP. It looked like he had a chance to form a majority government. But his high-wire act is being shaken by a Conservative resurgence.

An aggregate of polling firms has the Conservatives and Liberals in a virtual tie at 32 per cent. The NDP are trailing at a consistently low 20 per cent. This level of support sees the Tory’s winning 136 seats compared to the Liberal’s 128. While a week can be a lifetime in politics, the Conservatives look like they could form at least a minority government in the fall election.

Why is this likely to happen?

First, let’s look at the fundamentals of federal politics that have persisted for decades. Under our first-past-the-post electoral system a party can win a minority government with as little as one-third of the popular vote — if the seat distribution is in their favour.

From 2006 until today the united-right Conservatives have commanded between 36 per cent and 40 per cent of the popular vote. That’s been enough to form two minority governments and one majority.

It’s been made possible by one of Harper’s major accomplishments. He united the Reform, Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties into a right-wing juggernaut that still maintains a solid core of supporters representing about 30 per cent of the popular vote.

During the last three elections the Tories were able to add 5 to 10 per cent to their core from the ranks of mushy-middle voters. Each time at least 60 per cent of the electorate did not support the Conservatives. They spread their support between four other parties.

Together the centre-left New Democrats and Liberals enjoy the support of about 50 per cent of the electorate. They jockey with each other for second place. One rises to about 30 per cent support (where the Liberals are now), then falls back to 20 per cent (where the NDP are now). The Bloc Québécois and Green party are far behind in third and fourth place.

With a divided left facing a united right, the only way either the Liberals or NDP can gain power is to increase their popular support by at least 10 percentage points over their best showing in the last three elections. Trudeau has had support at this level for months.

But the fundamentals have reasserted themselves. The lesson for the parties on the left should be apparent by now: co-operate or lose.

Doing the same thing again and again and expecting different results is the definition of insanity. And, the current opposition leaders, suffering from varying cases of ideological hubris, seem determined to go down the same road again.

NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair said recently he’s willing to consider forming a coalition government with the Liberals after this year’s election. On the surface this offer looks like Mulcair is proposing something hopeful for those who want to oust Harper.

But in reality the NDP have no chance of forming the next government. By promising to consider a coalition, Mulcair is simply trolling for votes by telling the electorate that if they vote NDP they can be assured of co-operation talks with the Liberals.

Trudeau is keeping his powder dry. But his popularity is melting in the absence of compelling policies and a government furiously fanning the fear of foreign and domestic terrorism. The Liberals, like the NDP, have to be thinking about what they’d do if their parties finished with the second and third most seats and the Conservatives with less than a majority.

This time the government-weary 60 per cent of the electorate will insist on knowing what Trudeau and Mulcair plan to do. Will they form a coalition like the one that governs the United Kingdom, where the Conservatives and Liberal-Democrats govern together by sharing cabinet seats?

Will they join in a Policy Accord similar to the one entered into by the Liberals and NDP in Ontario in 1984? Or will they agree in advance to “co-operate” and field a single alternative candidate to defeat the federal Conservatives in key ridings?

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These options have gained traction with Canadians. The social media group Leadnow.ca and Internet activist organization Avaaz.org boast nearly 700,000 members between them. Both groups support the idea of the Liberals, NDP and Green party holding joint nominating meetings in Conservative-held ridings in this fall’s election. They also want electoral reform.

This time the disenfranchised 60 per cent who have voted against Harper for three elections won’t be patient. They will press opposition leaders during the election to commit to the co-operation they plan if there’s a chance to return Canada to a progressive agenda.

R. Michael Warren is a former corporate director, Ontario deputy minister, TTC chief general manager and Canada Post CEO. r.michael.warren@gmail.com

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