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I must say, I have rarely seen Amit Shah beaming at a rally like he did in Malda yesterday. Usually, the “smiling Shah” appears only on posters and at press conferences after election victories. Clearly, he was savoring the moment after recovering from swine flu. All those curses from Lutyens vultures had no effect.

In an earlier post, I had predicted that Amit Shah would be fine and roaring by Jan 20. I apologize for my wrong prediction. He was fine by Jan 21, one day later than I predicted 🙂

Clearly, I am enjoying this too.

However, what is not funny is that BJP’s “campaign release date” has been delayed by a full month in Bengal, from Dec 20 to Jan 20. In the “slog overs” of the poll season, every minute matters. Loss of a full month is massive.

For people who may not keep careful track of politics in Bengal, this is just a taste of the sad condition of democracy in Bengal. The BJP wanted to do a “Rath Yatra” starting Dec 20 all across the state, but the state government came up with all sorts of excuses to deny them the permission. They said it would cause a law and order problem and communal violence, etc etc… the BJP went to court and there were several rounds back and forth there: I think the govt won the first round, then BJP won the second and then the court sort of half agreed with both sides.

It doesn’t really matter. What matters for the TMC is that they managed to delay the BJP by a full month in Bengal. We might have constitutionally guaranteed rights to political expression in this country, but enforcing them through courts takes a long time. Which means that ultimately it is the ruling party that holds the aces.

Any other state government could have done what TMC did in Bengal and denied the opposition the right to campaign. However, this does not happen anywhere else. It tells you that right now, Bengal is LAST in the whole country when it comes to democracy. Don’t expect the civil society and its self appointed conscience keepers to latch on to this though. Because ‘civil society’ is too busy applauding Mamata Banerjee and wishing that all other opposition governments could be as fascist as she is.

The TMC government wouldn’t even give permission to Amit Shah’s helicopter to land at the required spot saying that the helipad was not ready. The truth was quite different.

If this is the condition of Amit Shah, imagine how Mamata Banerjee is treating common people.

At least the BJP has been able to start and Amit Shah has given it an aggressive beginning. His rally has created a buzz for sure, with TMC giving all sorts of knee jerk reaction. And the helicopter incident, everyone is talking about it.

Let us now talk about Malda, the spot where Amit Shah held his rally. Well chosen. Excellent. Let me explain.

Malda district is ground zero of what we could call “demographic invasion” of India. At the time of partition, there was a serious possibility that it could go to Pakistan. And well, now…

This is the place where ordinary Hindus are going to be most worried that 1947 could finally arrive after being delayed for 70 years. Both the National Register of Citizens and the Citizenship Amendment Bill are sure to be talking points here. The NRC is a guarantee for the Assamese against the demographic invasion they have faced. The Citizenship Amendment acknowledges the reality that we have to make distinction between an infiltrator and an unfortunate refugee. The Hindus of West Bengal, Assam and Bangladesh are all victims of Partition. While Bangladeshi Hindus are still living the nightmare of 1947, for the Hindus of Assam and West Bengal, another 1947 could arrive soon. We are all in this together.

The district of Malda, believe it or not, is a Congress stronghold, ruled by influential Muslim political families who have always been loyal to Congress. The Congress holds both Malda North and Malda South Lok Sabha seats. This is what makes Malda so interesting : it is the last remaining fortress of Congress in Bengal. But as Mamata positions herself as the ‘protector’ of Muslims against a rising BJP, the traditional Muslim vote of the Congress will splinter. A clear opportunity for BJP.

Congress is over in Bengal. Everybody knows that. The TMC is the future of Bengali Muslims. All across the state, the few remaining Muslim votes of the Congress are fast moving to Mamata. In a Congress stronghold like Malda, the Congress vote could get cut exactly in half.

One advantage that BJP has this time is nobody can accuse them of ‘coming only during elections’. Since Feb-Mar 2014, the BJP has relentlessly focused on Bengal. They have been the only opposition visible on the ground. The people of Bengal are obsessed with “ideology” to the point that no other state has this much political violence. With a clear ideological distinction versus the TMC, the BJP has a chance to get all of the opposition vote. In one big seismic political shift.

You have to understand why Mamata is so nervous about BJP. Traditionally in most states, caste loyalties act as checks and balances on political waves, stemming the tide even when there is a genuine desire for change. Caste loyalties in Bengal are exceptionally weak. Mamata has a comfortable majority right now, but if there is a mood for change, a wave could cut across the electorate in a matter of weeks. A bit like hyper urban Delhi, where 10-15% vote or more changes hands within a few days.

The biggest handicap that BJP faces in Bengal is one of leadership. The state BJP quite simply has nobody to match Mamata Banerjee. At least in the Lok Sabha election, BJP can reduce this difficulty somewhat. Because this is an election for electing a Prime Minister and not a Chief Minister.

Ok, but isn’t Mamata pitching herself for PM? Believe me, “regional pride” won’t win her one extra vote. You might have seen lots of articles in media about how Bengal is “different” and how “proud Bengalis” wont ever tolerate the “Hindi speaking BJP”. Believe me, this is garbage. This is the talk from that one boring uncle at the family party that nobody listens to. Desperate media has given these boring uncles a platform. They are a laughing stock.

Back in the day, Jyoti Basu and his CPIM would make excuses for backwardness in Bengal by saying that the “non-Bengali” government in Delhi is giving “stepmotherly treatment” to Bengal. Every Bengal knows this exact expression in English. It is now a punchline for jokes.

Yes, the BJP has had to take one step backwards in Bengal by canceling PM Modi’s Brigade Parade Ground rally on Feb 8. Instead PM will address 3 other rallies, beginning with a rally in Siliguri (in North Bengal) on Jan 28. I believe the next rally is in Asansol on Feb 8.

This is wise. The BJP cannot overplay its hand. The Brigade Ground is massive and there was simply no way for BJP to draw a crowd that would match Mamata Banerjee’s Jan 20 show of strength. False bravado is pointless. The crowd comparison would have become fodder for the Bengali language media which is totally beholden to TMC. Better to have nipped it in the bud. Better to play underdog when you don’t have the cards.

If you look carefully, you will notice that PM Modi has focused all his recent rallies on the East : Assam, Odisha, Jharkhand and Bengal. I believe he has already done 3 rallies in Odisha and 2 in Assam. He has also made 3 visits to Jharkhand in rapid succession. In the core Hindi belt, he knows his bedrock of support is intact. There are places where BJP could be surpassed by Mahagathbandhans, but the support base itself has not changed much since 2014. Same in Karnataka and in Maharashtra. Will the East turn saffron? That will decide 2019.