NJ Transit's proposed fiscal year 2017 budget does not include a fare increase, but officials are rolling the dice that fare revenues will grow, despite a lackluster performance from the fare box in fiscal year 2016.

The proposed $2.1 billion operating budget, which goes to the agency's administration committee on Wednesday, projects a $17.8 million increase in passenger revenues over the 2016 spending plan. Officials said they based that on additional earnings from the 9 percent fare increase that took effect on Oct. 1, 2015.



But revenue reports for the months following the fare hike show that earnings have struggled to meet budget projections. In November 2015, revenues were $1.11 million short of projections. December's earnings were up and only $682,096 short of the $87.5 million revenue goal.

The first month of 2016 saw some recovery, but earnings still were less than projections. As of April, revenues from fares were $10.4 million lower than fiscal year 2016 budget projections, the fiscal analysis said.

While ridership continues to grows to New York, Newark and Hoboken, it has decreased on local buses and trains, which dragged down the over all ridership number to a half a percent increase between April 2015 and April 2016.



Lower gas prices are a double-edged sword for NJ Transit. While low pump prices are a factor in lower local ridership, NJ Transit also is counting on a $45 million savings in lower fuel costs in fiscal year 2017. That also absorbs a budget gap that was projected earlier this year, making good on Interim Executive Director Dennis Martin's pledge not to slash service or jobs.

The administration committee also will review the proposed $1.68 billion capital program, which includes $554 million from the state Transportation Trust Fund. The fund is projected to run out of cash in the immediate future, unless new revenues are found.

NJ Transit's board will vote on the spending plans in July.

Larry Higgs may be reached at lhiggs@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @commutinglarry. Find NJ.com on Facebook.