We are in a super drought.

How did we get here and just how did it get so bad? These were just some of the questions tackled in a recent webinar hosted by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Senior climate experts laying it all on the table, painting a dire state of affairs.

Large parts of Australia are not just in a severe drought, this is the most severe on record and according to the BOM, it’s as bad as it gets.

The federation drought

There is one particular drought that compares to what the nation is experiencing right now.

The federation drought came at the turn of last century. A prolonged period of dry conditions that stretched across much of the continent.



Very little rain fell on inland Australia, parts of which are still struggling with drought. (AAP)

From 1895 to 1903, it resulted in enormous sheep and cattle losses – as much as 50 per cent - across the country. It also had a snowball effect on land settlement and the economy. To this day, it's still regarded as one of the worst in Australian history.

In recent memory, the millennium drought - between 2001 and 2009 - devastated communities across the south east and south west of the country. The decade-long drought contributed to widespread crop failures, livestock losses, dust storms, and bushfires. It also brought changes to Australia’s water management systems.

What makes the current drought a standout is the temperature. The last 12 months have seen record-high daily temperatures reached around the nation. There is nothing unusual about heatwaves during drought. Droughts are hot and droughts are dry.



But let us wind back to a drought that took place in 1915 – just a few years after reliable, widespread weather stations were rolled out by the bureau.

Back then, temperatures recorded in the Murray Darling Basin were half a degree above average. But fast forward more than a hundred years and rising temperatures means it is sitting more than a degree higher than that, with the mercury through the basin now more than one-and-a-half degrees above the long-term average.

Whatever your view on climate change. Australia’s temperatures are at a record high. That is an indisputable fact.

A hotter climate, means an increase in water evaporation. This results in drier soils and thirstier livestock. Both requiring more water, and we all know that hasn’t been forthcoming. So, higher temperatures are increasing the drought threat and putting an even greater strain on our depleted water storages.



Drought and water shortages have hurt farmers in different regions in recent years. (A Current Affair)

Declining water storages

Every state and territory has seen a decline in water storages over the past 12 months. Some Australian towns are on the brink of running out of water after years of below average rainfall. If it was as simple as flicking a rainfall switch, it went off at the end of 2016. That was the last wet year in Australia.

So just how much rain do we need to restore storages back to sustainable levels? A lot. But the fact is, we’re unlikely to get it over the next three months.

The BOM’s climate outlook for August to October shows the prospects for good relief rainfall are fairly limited across Australia. It doesn’t mean it won’t rain, but it does mean we’re unlikely to get the widespread higher than average falls that would start to pull us out of this dry hole.



Many farmers in NSW are still struggling with brutal drought. (A Current Affair)

That is, thanks in part, to a dominant climate influencer currently in play. It’s called the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and over the next few months it is forecast to stay in a positive phase.

A positive IOD has been shown to have a negative impact on Australian rainfall. Warmer waters out in the Indian Ocean towards Africa increase rainfall there, while typically resulting in decreased rainfall across our region during winter and spring. So, that’s been unhelpful to our situation. As a side note, during the healthy rain season of 2016, IOD was in a negative phase. The opposite to what it is right now.

So what now?

Long story short. It has not just been extremely dry, but super warm, with daily temperatures at a record high. That makes this super drought a game-changer.



Within the past two years, catchment levels around the state have almost halved as NSW endures the grips of a devastating drought. (9news)

To break it, it’s not going to be easy. According to the BOM, it’s going to take record high rainfall over the next three months just to provide some measure of relief. And we know that is unlikely to happen.