As the presidential election draws near, we increasingly read and hear about the importance of the Latino vote, as pollsters and pundits alike claim that Latino voters as a group may determine the fate of Barack Obama and John McCain, especially in the all-important battleground states. Indeed, in Florida, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, Latinos are critical swing voters that may hold the key to unlocking the door to the Oval Office.

Most would agree that the advantage is on Obama’s side, even in Florida, where Cuban-Americans — historically the large majority of the Hispanic population — have consistently voted Republican. But today Latinos in the Sunshine State are much more diverse, as Puerto Rican, Central and South Americans have reduced the Cuban-origin people to minority status. In addition, second- and third-generation Cuban-Americans don’t necessarily hold the same anti-Fidel Castro sentiments that pushed their elders into the Republican Party ranks.

For the first time in Florida history, Hispanic Democrats outnumber their Republican counterparts. The latest polls indicate that Obama and McCain are running head to head, but Latino voters, here as elsewhere, may determine the outcome in this highly coveted state with 27 Electoral College votes.

Moving from the Southeast to the Southwest, Obama appears to have an even better chance to garner Hispanic votes in states such as New Mexico and Colorado. (California is already a lock for the Democrat, partly because of the Latino vote.) Yet the Obama campaign realizes it can not take Latino voters for granted, despite their traditional alignment with the Democratic Party in this region.

A Los Angeles Times article recently noted, for example, that 1 in 5 Hispanic voters in New Mexico is still undecided in a state in which the most recent polls show Obama increasing his slim lead over McCain. In Colorado, by contrast, a recent poll revealed that Latinos are lining up in far greater numbers behind Obama (68 percent) than for McCain (26 percent). This low level of support for the Republican candidate is also reflected in a recent Gallup Poll among Hispanic voters across the nation.

Both presidential campaigns have learned that Latinos are not a single-issue electorate. For example, although an issue such as a kinder and gentler immigration policy reform may motivate more Latinos to join the Obama camp in Colorado or Nevada, this is not necessarily the case in New Mexico, a state that has been far less affected by both legal and undocumented immigration from Mexico. The conservative tendencies of Latino Catholics on pro-life issues also might draw many to the family values agenda of the Republican Party. But vital concerns about improving the quality of public education can eclipse other issues and tip them towards Democrats.

Latinos, like Americans across the land, are scared about the looming economic crisis. As a group, they are more heavily concentrated in the ranks of the working class. Although the Latino middle class has expanded considerably in recent decades, it is still fragile and subject to enormous downward pressure during economic bad times. Consequently, I venture to say that the escalating problems of the domestic economy, the loss of jobs and homes, and a growing uncertainty about their well-being will drive masses of Latino voters to Barack Obama. As critical swing voters, they are poised to give Obama a possible electoral vote landslide victory on Tuesday in several battleground states — “red” states they are helping to paint “blue.”

Albert Camarillo is professor of American history and Miriam and Peter Haas Centennial Professor in Public Service at

Stanford University. He wrote this article for The Mercury News.