Among the people indicted by Mueller so far are four former members of Trump’s campaign: Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, and George Papadopoulos. While the charges currently levied against them don’t include conspiracy to affect the outcome of the election, it’s known that all four did have contact with Russian operatives during the campaign. Mueller has also indicted 26 Russian nationals and three Russian companies, and the charges there have included conspiracy to affect the outcome of the election through the use of false identities, data theft, and direct intrusion into offices and systems used in administering the election.

It’s obvious that the Trump campaign was in contact with Russian nationals, that they were aware of information stolen from the DNC and others including the fact that it was stolen information, and that they coordinated with WikiLeaks and others to utilize this information to maximum impact. It’s also clear that data operations connected to the Trump campaign, including Cambridge Analytica and others, used illegally obtained information in targeting political ads and may have coordinated their attacks with troll farms and other tools used by Russian operatives.

There are more indictments in this area to come—the fact that people like Roger Stone and Aaron Nevins have not been indicted at this point indicates there are some pretty big shoes still to drop. But it is by no means a certainty that Mueller will determine that Donald Trump had enough direct knowledge of these events to constitute criminal activity. The public simply does not know the strength or detail of Mueller’s evidence, or what cooperating witnesses have told his investigators.

On obstruction, the case against Trump seems much more straightforward. No matter what executive authority Trump invokes for firing James Comey and others, it does not excuse incidents such as the Air Force One letter in which Trump authored a false cover story for the Trump Tower meeting hosted by Donald Trump Jr. Such incidents of directly misleading both the public and investigators aren’t in the scope of any executive, no matter how broadly interpreted.

While Justice Department guidelines should have caused Comey to hold off on his election-shaking letter until after the vote, no such guidelines are in effect at this point. Despite his now near interchangeability with the term Republican Party, Donald Trump is not on the ballot. So rules that say prosecutors should avoid actions that that could be seen as influencing the outcome should not apply.

However, Mueller has been a stickler for following guidelines, even when the application of the guidelines is questionable. And his investigation has been an airtight, hermetically sealed, all-but-leakproof machine. It is extremely unlikely he is going to break his silence in the next few weeks.

Which means that not only will the Senate be grappling with a replacement for Sessions in the days immediately after the election, they’ll be doing so with the fate of Mueller’s findings at stake. Though it’s a good bet that, should there be even one sentence of those findings that sounds exculpatory for Trump, that sentence will somehow land on Fox News … while the bulk of the report languishes in a steel box.