Posted By: Madame Fleur

July 6, 2008

In the Red state of Montana, that is. But red for how much longer?

Barack Obama spent his Fourth of July at a parade in Butte, Montana, making good on his promise to take Montana seriously in the run-up to the November election.

This is Obama’s fourth trip to Montana since April and last month he hired a full-time director for his state campaign. The Obama campaign has already begun running informative TV ads to introduce Obama to the people of Montana and the voters are paying attention.

But can Barack turn this red state blue?

Montana has consistently gone to the Republican Party in presidential elections: Only two Democratic presidential candidates have won the state since 1948. The most recent was Bill Clinton in 1992, who won thanks to third-party candidate Ross Perot’s garnering 26% of the vote to the disadvantage of George H. W. Bush and the Republicans.

But Obama believes he can win Montana’s three electoral votes in November and the latest polling numbers support his prediction.

Just days before Obama arrived in Montana this week, Rasmussen Reports released the results of a telephone survey that shows Obama leading McCain by five points.

The report predicts Republicans still have a 62% chance of winning Montana in November, but the state has been shifted from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power.

This leftward shift has been evident in Montana as Democrats have gained ground in recent years.

In 2006, Democrat John Tester defeated Republican incumbent Conrad Burns for a U.S. Senate seat, ending a longtime Republican stronghold. Then in 2004, Democrat Brian Schweitzer capitalized on Montanan’s distaste for corrupt Washington politics in his bid for Governor, and his victory has been succeeded by overwhelming public approval ratings.

The Obama campaign is hoping that its own message of change will appeal to the voters who sought the same by electing both Tester and Schweitzer.

The Rassmussen Report telephone survey responses support the theory that Montanans desire better representation in the federal government: 66% of Montanans say that the federal government has itself become a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interest. Only 19% of Montanans believe that the government today represents the will of the American people.

For years, Republicans have been able to take Montana for granted – and John McCain appears to be doing the same.

McCain has yet to visit Montana this election year and he has not set up any state offices or employed any paid staff in Montana.

More bad news for McCain from the Rassmussen Report: 50% of Montanans surveyed believe it’s more important to get the troops out of Iraq than it is to win the war. Only 44% hold the view that victory is more important.

But even with poll numbers in Obama’s favor and many Montanans seeking the change that his campaign promises, it is questionable whether the three out of the total 538 electoral votes justify the time and money Obama is committing to his Montana campaign.

Some speculate Obama’s presence in Montana is primarily intended to force McCain to spend campaign funds on a state that McCain wrongly assumed he had in the bag. By opting out of public financing, Obama can afford to keep a presence in Montana, while John McCain desperately needs to use his funds to fight for states with more electoral votes.

Another interesting response in the polling: 50% of Democratic Montanans want Hillary on the ticket with Obama in November. Perhaps that played a role in Obama’s decision to spend his 4th of July holiday in Butte, rather than in Missoula or Bozeman where he enjoys significantly more popularity. Butte is the only urban county that Obama lost to Clinton in the June primary, and it is home to a heavily-unionized, white, working class population, a demographic that better connected with Hillary Clinton throughout the primary season.

Obama made a brief speech (which you can see in this post at TSR, scroll down to the 2nd video) during his holiday in Butte, decrying the nation’s reliance on foreign oil and criticizing our country’s energy policies. He also lamented the status of our healthcare system and touted his message of change.

One topic he did not address: guns. Obama’s stance on gun ownership – that guns are subject to “reasonable and commonsense regulation” - is viewed with skepticism by some Montanans and could spell trouble for Obama in November.

So despite the good news he received from this Rasmussen poll it would be a staggering upset if Obama were to win Montana in November. But if Obama is able to connect with and win over traditionally Republican states like Montana, he could not only win the Presidency, but his coattails could possibly win him a large enough margin to have a large legislative mandate. Then Obama could put into effect the changes for which he has campaigned and fulfill his promise to unite a divided country.

For more on Montana Politics check out Madam Fleur's last post: Governor Brian Schweitzer: Political Rock Star