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1. Matt Manning, RHP

FB CB CH Command Overall 65 65 50 55 60

Background: Not quite as tall as his dad, Rich, the 6-foot-11 former power forward for the defunct Vancouver Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers, the younger Manning, however, remains an imposing figure atop the bump. Standing 6-foot-6 and 215 pounds, the Tigers selected the budding ace in the opening round, ninth overall, of the 2016 draft. Manning has showed some encouraging progress in each of his professional seasons. The then-19-year-old right-hander averaged 10.9 strikeouts and 4.4 walks per nine innings as he split time between Connecticut and West Michigan in 2017. Manning raised his strikeout rate, 11.8 K/9, and lowered his walk rate, 3.9 BB/9, as he sprinted through Low Class A, High Class A, and Class AA the following season. And last year – the first time he’s stayed at one level since his brief debut – Manning put together his finest showing to date, despite squaring off against the minors’ most challenging level: Class AA. Making a career-best 24 starts with Erie, the hard-throwing hurler posted a dominating 148-to-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 133.2 innings. He compiled a 2.56 ERA and a 2.75 DRA (Deserved Run Average).

Scouting Report: In a system chock full of premium, high octane arms; Manning has the potential to be the best of the bunch. The former first rounder owns one of the best fastball/curveball combos in the minor leagues. His heater sits in the 94- to 95-mph range and will touch as high as 97- or 98-mph on occasion. His long arms and massive stride allow the plus offering to play up more effectively too. His curveball, another 65-grade offering, is a genuine knee-buckling, put-your-head-down-on-the-way-back-to-the-dugout, swing-and-miss pitch. It’s hard, biting downward break. And generally sits in the 79- to 80-mph neighborhood. He’ll also mix in a firm, upper-80s changeup. Manning typically relies on his fastball/curveball combo, so he needs to show more trust in his changeup to allow for further development. His command jumped several grades last season for me as well. He was consistently throwing quality strikes, not just strikes. He has a chance to be a bonafide ace, a true #1.

Ceiling: 5.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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2. Casey Mize, RHP

FB SL SF Command Overall 60 65 80 60 60

Background: Equipped with the #1 overall pick for just the second time in franchise history – the first was in 1997 when they selected fire-bolt slinging right-hander Matt Anderson out of Rice University – the Tigers once again went the collegiate route and selected Auburn University ace righty Casey Mize. Opting to go with the polish and upside of Mize – as opposed to some of the high profile bats of Joey Bart, Alec Bohm, Nick Madrigal, Jonathan India, and Jarred Kelenic – Detroit quickly placed him on the fast track to the big leagues. After a brief two-inning appearance in the Gulf Coast, Mize made four brief appearances in High Class A. Mize opened up last season back in High Class A. And was, simply, unhittable. In four starts the former SEC star posted a 25-to-1 K/BB ratio while surrendering just one earned run in 26.0 innings of work. Detroit bounced him up to the Eastern League in late April. But a wonky shoulder – which was tabbed as “soreness” and diagnosed by Dr. James Andrews as “minor inflammation at the back of the shoulder” – shelved him for roughly a month. He popped back up in the Florida State League for a pair of rehab starts before moving back up to Class AA. In total he made 21 starts, throwing 109.1 innings with 106 whiffs and 23 walks with a 2.55 ERA.

Scouting Report: Three plus or better pitches with the command to match. But Mize isn’t without his red flags either. The shoulder issue may – or may not – be something. And that’s not including his arm issues during his time in college and Team USA. That’s a whole lot of arm woes for a top prospect in a rather short time frame. Then there’s his production, which is good, even borderline great, but it’s not what you would expect out of the #1 player chosen in the draft two years ago. For instance: his strikeout percentage in the Eastern League, 23.5%, ranked as the 19th best mark among all pitchers with at least 70 IP, placing him right in between Patrick Murphy and Wil Crowe. And his K% was actually less than Orioles soft-tossing lefty Bruce Zimmerman. Frankly, it doesn’t make sense either. His fastball sits in the 93- to 95-mph range. His slider, which has improved significantly within the last season, is 87- 90-mph and varies from a traditional hard slider and late-tilting cutter. And then there’s his trademark splitter, an easy 80-grade pitch. Everything other than the production suggests a bonafide ace, but I think he probably settles in as a good #2/#3 arm.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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3. Riley Greene, CF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 45/55 45/50 50 50/55 55 55

Background: Part of the dynamic 18U Team USA squad two summers ago. Greene, who teamed with the likes of fellow first rounders like Bobby Witt Jr., C.J. Abrams, and Brennan Malone (as well as Jack Leiter, who was a surefire top pick had he not informed clubs of his desire to play for Vanderbilt), put his offensive prowess on full display: in nine games the 6-foot-3, 200-pound outfielder slugged an impressive .424.548/.848 with five doubles and three homeruns while plating a whopping 28 RBIs. The Hagerty High School product also fanned just four times against nine walks. Greene was finalist for the Gatorade Baseball Player of the Year. Detroit drafted the toolsy outfielder in the opening round last June, 5th overall, to a hefty $6.1 million, the full slot value. Greene sprinted through three separate low levels during his professional debut last season, batting a solid .271/.347/.403 with eight doubles, three triples, five homeruns, and five stolen bases in as many attempts in 57 games.

Scouting Report: Here’s what I wrote prior to the draft last June:

“Earned a nod from Baseball America as a Third-Team High School All-American two years ago, Greene has altered his stance at the plate this season, starting from a wider base than he showed during his time with Team USA. He shows above-average bat speed and keeps the barrel in the hitting zone as well as any high school hitter in this year’s draft class. The toolsy outfielder also shows some remarkable patience, especially at secondary pitches off the plate or below the strike zone. Greene, according to a variety of reports, has touched the upper 80s as a hurler as well. It’ll be interesting to see if a big league club will shorten his base, which allows for a smoother weight transfer. He has the potential to develop into an above-average big league starting outfielder.

Greene, by the way, walked in 8.8% of his plate appearances during his debut.

Ceiling: 3.5- to 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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4. Tarik Skubal, LHP

FB CB SL CH Command Overall 65 55 50/55 50 45 55

Background: Easily the most exciting breakout player in the minor leagues last season. Detroit unearthed a potential gem, a unicorn of sorts thanks to his long, wiry frame and explosive, meteoric fastball. A late round pick out of Seattle University two years ago, Skubal, who was chosen as the 255th overall player, was sporting a couple of hefty red flags following his redshirt junior season: he missed all of 2017 as he was recovering/rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and his control/command, which wavered at points in 2016, imploded upon itself as he averaged more than six walks per nine innings. So…there he sat at the top of the ninth round. And the Tigers’ brass decided he was worth the risk as they handed him an above-slot deal worth $350,000 – more than double the recommended slot bonus. The 6-foot-3, 215-pound southpaw made stops at three separate levels during his debut, posting an incredible 33-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 0.40 ERA. And it was just a harbinger of things to come. The front office pushed the flame-throwing lefty straight into High Class A at the start of 2019 and after 15 absurdly dominating starts he earned a mid-season promotion up to the minors’ toughest test, Class AA. In total, Skubal made 24 starts, throwing 122.2 innings while recording a whopping 179 punch outs and handing out just 37 walks. He compiled an aggregate 2.42 ERA.

Scouting Report: One of the more explosive fastballs for a left-handed prospect last season. Skubal takes a no nonsense approach to challenging hitters, particularly early in the count: here’s a fastball, try to hit it. The borderline plus-plus offering sat in the late 90s – and touched as high as 98 mph – with some of the best late, riding life I saw all season long. The former Seattle University ace features two breaking balls: a sharp curveball with tremendous downward force and cutter-like slider. He uses his slider, which flashes above-average when he stays on top of it, almost primarily as an equalizer on left-handed hitters. He’ll also mix in an average low- to mid-80s change with some sink. As good as Skubal is – and he was exceptionally dominating for most of the time – he’s still quite raw. The control/command is fringy average, but he’ll continue to succeed because of the quality of his arsenal. But the way to beat him is simple: make him throw his breaking balls for strikes. Skubal got ahead with his fastball last season, and got the hitters to chase outside the zone. While Skubal has the potential to be, say, 80% of Chris Sale, I think he’s going to have a few rough patches ahead until he can throw this curveball/slider consistently for strikes. #3-type ceiling.

Ceiling: 3.5- to 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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5. Isaac Paredes, IF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 55 50 35 55 50 55

Background: It was a text book, sit-down-take-notes type of trade that was perfectly executed by the Al Avila-led front office. The Tigers dealt away Alex Avila, Al’s kid, and talented, enigmatic left-handed reliever Justin Wilson to the Cubs for Isaac Paredes and Jeimer Candelario at the trade deadline three years ago. And while Candelario has looked beyond atrocious during his two-plus seasons in Detroit, Paredes – on the other hand – looks like a bonafide All-Star in the making. Standing a stocky 5-foot-11 and 225 pounds, the lefty-swinging infielder was promoted up to the minors’ toughest challenge – Class AA – at the end of the 2018 season. And, frankly, he looked All-World as he slugged .321/.406/.458 in 39 games. The Hermosillo, Mexico, native spent all of last year back in the Eastern League and he continued to impress. In 127 games with the Erie SeaWolves, Paredes batted .282/.368/.416 with 23 doubles, one triple, 13 homeruns, and five stolen bases. Per Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Created Plus, his production topped the league average threshold by 38%. He also popped up with the Mesa Solar Sox in the Arizona Fall League, batting .208/.377/.396 in 15 games.

Scouting Report: Consider the following:

Since 2006, here’s the list of 20-year-old hitters that posted a 133 to 143 DRC+ total with a sub-20% strikeout rate in any Class AA league (min. 300 PA): Colby Rasmus, Billy Butler, Jake Bauers, and Issac Paredes.

Sans Paredes, here’s the group’s career big league DRC+ total: 100 (Rasmus), 115 (Butler), and 86 (Bauers).

Side note: I still think Bauers becomes a valuable big league bat, by the way. But ignoring that for a moment, two of the three went on to become better than average big leaguers during their peak seasons. Paredes combines a strong feel for contact – he whiffed in few than 12% of his plate appearances in 2019 – with 20-homerun pop and a strong walk rate. Throw in some solid glove work. And all of sudden Paredes looks like a borderline All-Star at his peak. Corey Seager’s showing last season with the Dodgers seems like a reasonable comp for the young infield vagabond: .272/.335/.483. I’m still worried about the weight, though.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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6. Daz Cameron, CF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 45 50 55 55 55 50

Background: Cut from a similar cloth as his father, Mike Cameron, who was a 2001 A.L. All-Star for the Seattle Mariners and three-time Gold Glove Winner – which is a travesty given his defensive aptitude; it should have been – at least by my count – nine Gold Gloves. The younger Cameron was originally selected by the Houston Astros in the opening round, 37th overall, in the 2015 draft. A little more than two seasons later Detroit acquired the toolsy center fielder – along with Franklin Perez and defensive wizard Jake Rogers – in the Justin Verlander swap. Two years ago the Tigers’ brass held the accelerator down on his development as they pushed him through three different levels. And it looked – at that time – that the former first rounder was positioning himself as a potential mid-season call up in 2019. Then…he stopped hitting. Last season Cameron appeared in 120 games with the Toledo Mud Hens in the International League, batting a disappointing .214/.330/.377 with 22 doubles, six triples, 13 homeruns, and 17 stolen bases. Per Deserved Runs Created Plus, his overall production was 14% below the league average threshold.

Scouting Report: Well, not only didn’t that go as planned, but it’s concerning that Cameron didn’t show any type of ability to make adjustments during his horrific 2019 season. For instance he batted below .200 in three of the five full months (April, July, and August) and hit just .226 in June. Only one month of the season, May, did he hit as one would expect; he batted .269/.333/.495 in May. He can still stuff a stat sheet with the best of them, especially with his 20/20 potential, but – man – was he bad last year. His strikeout rate exploded to a career worst 28.8% as well. His dad was a career .249/.338/.444 hitter in 17 big league seasons. That seems like a reasonable ceiling at this point, but he certainly needs to show something in 2020 to get his career on track.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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7. Joey Wentz, LHP

FB CB CH Command Overall 55 50 65 50 50

Background: The second of three straight prep arms the Braves selected in the opening rounds of the 2016 draft. Wentz, the 40th overall pick, was sandwiched around Braves hurlers Ian Anderson and Kyle Muller. Detroit acquired the intriguing – albeit enigmatic – southpaw, along with Travis Demeritte at the trade deadline last June in exchange for veteran reliever Shane Greene. A product of Shawnee Mission East High School in Prairie Village, Kansas, Wentz made a total of 25 starts between both organizations’ Class AA affiliates. He tossed 128.2 innings with a solid 137-to-49 K/BB ratio to go along with a 4.20 ERA. For his career, the former first round pick is averaging 9.6 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings with a 3.22 ERA.

Scouting Report: Well, the strikeout rate did come storming back. But that didn’t stop the Braves from dealing him away either. Wentz is an interesting pitcher. At times he looks like a solid #4-type arm. And at other times he’s looks like an up-and-down arm. Above-average fastball, a strong 50-grade curveball that may peak as an above-average offering if everything develops well; and a changeup that was (A) way better than I expected and (B) one of the better ones I saw all of last season. It’s Cole Hamels-esque, which is the bar for plus, left-handed changeups. The command wavers at points, but should settle in as he continues to mature. With respect to his work in the Southern League last season, which he made 20 of his 25 starts, consider the following:

Since 2006, only two 21-year-olds met the following criteria in the Southern League (min. 100 IP): a strikeout percentage between 21% and 23% with a walk percentage between 9% and 11%. Those two arms: Nathan Eovaldi and – of course – Joey Wentz.

Wentz clearly doesn’t possess the 80-grade fastball of Eovaldi. But it’s encouraging nonetheless. One more final thought: I’d really like to see Wentz throw his fantastic changeup more frequently.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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8. Alex Faedo, RHP

FB SL CH Command Overall 55 55 55 55 50

Background: I mention it every chance I can, so I’m certainly not going to pass up another chance. The 2016 Florida Gators team will go down as one of the single most talented collegiate squads in history. The pitching staff was loaded with the likes of Faedo, A.J. Puk, Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Logan Shore, Dane Dunning, Shaun Anderson, and Scott Moss. And the lineup featured power-hitting first baseman Peter Alonso, Jonathan India, Buddy Reed, J.J. Schwarz, and Mike Rivera, a defensive wizard behind the dish. As for Faedo, the Tigers originally drafted the crafty right-hander in the 40th round coming out of Braulio Alonso High School. They then circled back around three years later and made him the 18th overall pick. Last season Faedo teamed with Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Joey Wentz, and Logan Shore to form one of the deepest, most talented staffs in the minor leagues. Faedo made 22 starts for the Erie SeaWolves, throwing 115.1 innings with an absurd 134-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He finished the year with a 3.90 ERA and a 3.75 DRA.

Scouting Report: So he never got that call up to Motown last season. But his production came roaring back. Faedo shows straight 55’s across the board: fastball, slider, changeup, and command. He’s the ideal, innings eater fourth starter type pitcher that may squeak out a few years of slightly better production. As I noted in last year’s Handbook, as well as documenting it above, Faedo got dinged by the long ball yet again: he averaged 1.33 homeruns per nine innings, the worst mark among all qualified Class AA pitchers. He’s ready to be handed a gig in the Tigers’ rotation, though that likely won’t happen until his Super2 status passes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put up some Anthony DeSclafani-type production in the coming years – but watch the long ball.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2020

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9. Franklin Perez, RHP

FB CB SL CH Command Overall N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 50

Background: When the Tigers acquired Perez he was (A) the centerpiece of the Justin Verlander swap with Houston, (B) failed to appear in a Tigers affiliate uniform due to a blister issue, and (C) has – somehow – only totaled just 27.0 innings over the past two seasons. The 6-foot-3, 197-pound right-hander, who whipped fire-bolts consistently for strikes, was limited to just seven brief appearances in 2018 courtesy of a severe lat strain. And last season – of course – something entirely new popped up that hampered Perez: a nagging right shoulder injury, which seemed curious because team doctors haven’t found any structural issues. He made two brief appearances in the Florida State League last season, throwing 7.2 innings with six strikeouts and five walks with a 2.35 ERA.

Scouting Report: Suffering through a string of back luck that’s basically been unparalleled among professional pitchers. Actually only other one arm comes to mind immediately: Royals right-hander Kyle Zimmer. Who knows what to expect at this point? Hopefully he can shake the physical bugs that seem to continually pop up, though it’s incredibly reassuring that doctors don’t see any issues.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Risk: High

MLB ETA: 2020/2021?

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10. Parker Meadows, CF

Hit Power SB Patience Glove Overall 35/45 45/50 50 50 50 45

Background: The Meadows brothers went toe-to-toe when it comes to their respective performances during debuts. Austin, the ninth overall pick in 2013, slugged a robust .316/.424/.554 between his time in the Gulf Coast and New York-Penn Leagues. And Parker, the 44th overall choice two years ago, batted .290/.377/.473 as he spent time between the same two leagues. But there’s where the parallels in their production end. While Austin went on to slash .322/.388/.486 in an injury-shortened campaign in the South Atlantic League. Parker, on the other hand, barely hit his weight in the Midwest League: in 126 games with the West Michigan Whitecaps, the 6-foot-5, 205-pound center fielder cobbled together a .221/.296/.312 slash-line with 15 doubles, two triples, and seven homers. He swiped 14 bags in 22 attempts. His overall production, according to Deserved Runs Created Plus, was 22% below the league mark.

Scouting Report: On the positive side of things: Meadows’ strikeout rate normalized down to an average-ish 22.4% last season; he also showed some stat-stuffing ability with above-average power potential and speed to burn. On the opposite end of the spectrum: well, he was pretty terrible. The “Baby Giraffe”, as he’s known, appears quite lean and will likely add strength as he begins to fill out. He’s still quite raw.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2022

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Statistics provided by FanGraphs, BaseballReference, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport, and TheBaseballCube.