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Fundraising numbers by themselves don’t paint a full picture. As the Conservatives continue to outpace the Liberals on the money front, Team Trudeau is keen to point out that part of the equation is that the Conservatives spend consistently more on fundraising activities. According to financial returns provided to Elections Canada, in 2017, the Tories spent $7.2 million on fundraising expenses versus the Liberals’ $2.7 million. The same year, the parties had brought in $18.8 million and $13.9 million respectively.

But by several other metrics the Conservative machine is as well-oiled as the party suggests.

As of Monday the Tories have nominated 260 candidates for the federal election expected in October, the majority of whom are running in seats held by other parties. The Liberals, according to Caley, have nominated “more than 180,” but the majority of these are for seats the party already holds. The New Democrats, according to spokesman Guillaume Francoeur, have only nominated 80.

Polling is by far the most fickle numbers game, but here too, the Conservatives are seeing an upswing. They are lately beating the Liberals on voter intention by a range of three to 13 percentage points, depending on which pollster you consult. A Nanos tracking poll from last week, based on a rolling sample of 1,000 respondents, puts the CPC at 35.5 per cent and the Liberals at 33. A Leger poll of 1,522 Canadians, conducted for The Canadian Press and published Sunday, found the Conservatives with 40 per cent support and the Liberals with 27.

However large the spread is, whether it lasts is unclear. Perhaps the more telling insights are on Canadians’ perceptions of Trudeau as a leader. There has been a fundamental shift in the past few months, said the Conservative campaign source. Per Nanos, 40 per cent of respondents thought last week the prime minister “does not have qualities of a good leader,” a number that has risen steadily over his tenure and by 10 points since the fall.

• Email: mdsmith@postmedia.com | Twitter: mariedanielles