Stephen Harper continues to defy the odds, maintaining a small but significant lead in this week’s poll. While our tracking shows that Canadians are in a pessimistic place these days — about the economy and the nation’s direction overall — the prime minister has re-established a modest edge over Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.

A revitalized NDP continues to make this a three-way race and progressive voters are now spread out in a manner that suggests vote-splitting in favour of the Conservatives, who are hovering just north and south of 30 points in a relatively stagnant voter landscape.

So what explains the Conservatives’ polling strength, given the depth of Canadians’ stated discontent with the state of the country and the economy, and with their current leadership? None of the current political choices is really lighting it up with a relatively disengaged electorate. Our research suggests that the prime minister is outperforming his rivals when it comes to connecting with voters on values and interests. That’s been keeping his numbers relatively high, notwithstanding the fact that just one Canadian in five thinks he or she is better off since Harper gained his majority, and optimism about Canada’s future is polling at its lowest level in over a decade.

The question, of course, is whether Harper’s recent polling strength is sustainable through a campaign. Once the campaign gets properly underway, we can expect to see the focus on security and terrorism fade while the moribund economy becomes the top issue. When combined with the continuing media circus of Mike Duffy’s trial, the twin issues — that average Canadians are losing out while Conservatives and their supporters are lining their pockets — pose the greatest threat to the Conservatives’ current position in the polls.

The prime minister’s team has to be pleased with the fact the party is now in a polling position similar to the one it held in the six months before its majority win in 2011. In fact, the Liberals and Conservatives are in positions almost identical to where they were then, while the New Democrats are running seven points higher than they were in late 2010. There are, however, bigger challenges confronting Mr. Harper this time.

Due to small sample sizes, polling results for the various regional and demographic groups tend to fluctuate from week to week. But the overall patterns have changed little over the past month. The Liberals continue to dominate Atlantic Canada, while Quebec remains a tight four-way race. The NDP is being squeezed out in Ontario, where the Liberals and Conservatives have been trading the top spot for some time.

The Conservatives remain largely unchallenged in the Prairies — except for Manitoba, where the Liberals appear to be a very real force. British Columbia remains a highly fluid race between the Conservatives, Liberals, NDP and Greens, and it would be unwise to make any predictions about where the province is headed at this time.

The Conservatives have a very strong lead with men, but can’t seem to make much headway with women voters. The Conservatives continue to enjoy a huge lead with seniors — and the choices of older voters will be critical to deciding the election outcome. New Canadians are moving unpredictably back and forth between the Liberals and Conservatives. Very little appears settled in terms of demographics or regional patterns at this time.

Some have been speculating that Harper’s stronger position is based on rising personal numbers and declining scores for his opponents — particularly Justin Trudeau, whose poll numbers have been described as “plummeting”. We find no evidence to support this explanation for Mr. Harper’s lead. The third-place Thomas Mulcair has the best approval ratings and remains in third. Elizabeth May has similarly excellent ratings, but is not a factor in the national race.

While Trudeau’s numbers dropped towards the end of 2014, they have been stable for 2015. The prime minister, on the other hand, ranks last among the four leaders tested and a clear majority of Canadians disapprove of the way he does his job. We see no evidence that Trudeau is in decline. He has been ‘polarized’ — with roughly equal percentages of Canadians approving and disapproving of his performance — for some time. In short, the connection between approval ratings and vote intention is weak and confused; the numbers don’t support the conclusion that anyone is plummeting.

What the prime minister does have going for him is a clear advantage in terms of who Canadians see best serving their interests — something which we believe is rooted in greater volume, clarity and consistency in his economic messaging.

Harper retains an edge in terms of who Canadians see as best reflecting their values, but this advantage has diminished in recent weeks. This is an important number to watch, because ‘values’ are strongly connected to emotional engagement and party choice. Harper is seen by the largest number of Canadians as the leader best able to represent their interests; ‘progressive’ voters have been bouncing between the Liberals and the NDP on this question. This may reflect the advantages of incumbency; the Conservatives have dominated the airwaves with strategic messaging about the budget and ‘values’ issues, while other parties have been struggling to get noticed.

This poll takes another look at Canadians’ self-defined ‘class’. Clearly, people with higher incomes and educational attainment are more likely to place themselves in the middle and upper classes. What’s more surprising is the larger percentage of francophones identifying themselves as middle class — which explains why francophone voters express strong support for the concept of restarting middle class progress — and the very high degree of self-defined middle class status among those aged 65 and older.

Our past research has show consistently that voters almost unanimously believe that a growing and optimistic middle class is a precondition for societal health and economic progress. Meanwhile, large majorities tend to report a pessimistic outlook for middle class growth. The idea of restarting middle class progress has been a key point in President Barack Obama’s messaging and has figured strongly in the narratives of both Justin Trudeau and Tom Mulcair.

The only leader who isn’t really taking about middle class decline is Stephen Harper. This is hardly surprising, since the idea of stalled economic progress undermines his generally rosy depiction of the state of the economy. The key drivers of middle class stagnation are linked to rising income inequality and the decay of public institutions — two things many associate with the policies of austerity, trickle-down economics and tax relief which are central to Harper’s world view.

So it might come as a nasty surprise to the Liberals and New Democrats that Stephen Harper’s Conservative party is now seen as the party best positioned to satisfy the interests of the middle class. This phenomenon may be rooted in the continued mantra of Canada’s ‘economic action plan’ and the range of tax goodies coming down in the budget. The challenge for Mulcair and Trudeau is to replace Harper as middle class Canadians’ champion of choice.

Frank Graves is founder and president of EKOS Polling.

Methodology:

This study was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are April 8-14, 2015. In total, a random sample of 3,399 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.