Bhanwar Lal, 60, a farmer and trader, stares at the cloudless blue sky, then shifts his gaze to a pole with a red bunting flapping in the hot wind. He makes a quick prediction. "No rain anytime soon. The wind is blowing in the wrong direction," he says, adding, "maybe next poornima (full moon)." Unlike most farmers, Bhanwar Lal is not awaiting the rains for his crops. He is hoping for a gain from a wager on the arrival of the monsoon.

In Phalodi, 120 km north of Jodhpur, bets are placed on everything  from the rains to election results to cricket, most residents are ready to stake their money. In fact, the local joke is that if a shoe is tossed in the air, people will start betting on whether it will fall straight or upside down.

The recent IPL spot-fixing raids have not dissuaded the bookies from taking bets. Shifting their transmission gadgets and laptops to their cars, they drive 60 km away to Pokharan and station themselves there until the match gets over.

On Friday, as Mumbai Indians and Rajasthan Royals clashed, many here reportedly got calls from Mumbai-based bookies suggesting they should lay their bets on the former. "They say a big bookie in Mumbai has a huge stake on Mumbai Indians, so the team has to win. The going rate is Rs 1.5 for every rupee for Mumbai and Rs 3 for Rajasthan," says Kishori Lal (name changed on request).

Betting on cricket, rains and election results is done strictly over the phone. Most residents are in constant touch with local bookies  there are at least 30 in Phalodi  as well as outstation bookies. In another 10 days, the betting on rains will start. Wagers will be placed on whether it will just drizzle, rain enough to make water flow from the corrugated tin roof, or there will be a downpour which will see the market drain overflow, or if the Phalodi fort will be flooded. There will also be bets on the day that it will rain  full moon, no moon or Ashtami.

"Betting on elections will start two months before the Assembly polls in November, when parties start distributing tickets. We start with which candidate will get a ticket, to which candidate and party will win, how many seats each party will get, the victory margin, and who will become the chief minister," says Dhirendra Joshi (name changed), a farmer who says he makes more money on such bets than through his farm.

"Sometimes they win, sometimes they lose. People pawn their wife's jewellery, sell houses and spend all their savings. If one loses too much money, he goes into hiding for a week or ten days, then comes back and pleads with the bookie who lets him off with a penalty," he adds.

The narrow bylanes of the city's Bada Bazaar are dotted with betting parlours, where some men scribble on pieces of paper as money exchanges hands. Here, one can stake money on a three-number series. The number of the day is declared in Mumbai. Three markets  Milan, Kalyan and Ratan  open for just two hours daily during which the lucky winners are announced and transactions made.

"In Phalodi, this is the business to be in. It has reasonably good money. One day I hope to have enough to play on IPL too," say Harish and Kanhaiya Lal, school dropouts who have recently set up shop.

A sub-division with a population of 50,000 in the city and 4.65 lakh in its rural belt, Phalodi is said to have a history of betting. "Rajasthan's arid land and scanty rainfall gave few income opportunities. So about 200 years ago, the relatively better-off Brahmin community shifted to Mumbai and thrived on 'satta'. It was speculative trading on bullion and cotton then, but has now digressed to betting on everything," explains Radha Kishan Thanvi, a trader and BJP zilla vice-president.

He adds that while the literacy rate in Phalodi may be low, when it comes to knowledge on cricket, weather and politics, an average resident here can give many experts a run for their money, literally.

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