The Republican health-care bill is expected to increase America’s uninsured rate and bring down government health-care spending.

Those changes should catch up with the industry in about 2020, according to a new Moody’s report, which said that the bill would be “credit negative for most U.S. corporate health-care companies.”

Effects would be “minimal” over the next year to year and a half, because the bill’s biggest changes, including about $880 billion in Medicaid cuts over the next 10 years, only take effect in 2020.

The Affordable Care Act’s repeal has long been expected to harm hospitals such as Community Health Systems Inc. CYH, -3.24% , HCA Holdings Inc. HCA, -0.63% , Tenet Healthcare Corp. THC, +3.00% , LifePoint Health Inc. US:LPNT and Universal Health Services Inc. UHS, +0.44% , who were big beneficiaries of the health-care law. Uninsured people often end up in hospital emergency rooms, and if those pricey bills are left unpaid, hospitals must eat the cost.

But the Moody’s report said the AHCA would also have consequences for medical device makers and pharmaceutical companies, such as Johnson & Johnson JNJ, -0.82% , Merck & Co. Inc. MRK, +0.08% , Amgen Inc. AMGN, +0.12% , Pfizer Inc. PFE, +0.10% and Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY, -0.08% , alongside medical devicemakers Boston Scientific Corp. BSX, -1.29% and Medtronic Inc. MDT, +0.29% .

The Republican bill would repeal taxes on both subsectors, but ultimately “the benefit would be more than offset by the negative effects of declining insured patients and Medicaid funding,” the Moody’s report said.

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The cut in Medicaid funding amounts to a roughly 25% reduction in what would be spent under current law, according to the nonprofit Congressional Budget Office, which scored the Republican health-care bill on Monday.

“This amount is material, and would likely blow through the entire health-care system, affecting almost every type of health-care product and service,” the Moody’s report said, including health insurers who have quit the ACA’s exchanges, such as UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, -0.50% , Aetna Inc. US:AET and Humana Inc. HUM, -0.39% .

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Medicaid represents nearly 10% of U.S. pharmaceutical spending, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

With smaller budgets to work with, more states would likely cut down on pharmaceutical costs, the report said, by covering fewer drugs or using other savings measures.

The bill would also allow health insurers to charge older Americans far more for coverage than younger Americans — five times more, compared with the ACA’s limit of three times more.

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This would be credit negative for all kinds of health-care companies, Moody’s said, since starting in 2020, older individuals — who have far more medical expenses — would find coverage much less affordable. They’d presumably respond to these financial pressures by reducing their use of the medical system as much as possible.

“We believe that for for-profit hospitals and health care providers, pharmaceutical companies and medical device companies, the negative effect of older enrollees losing coverage would outweigh the positive effects of younger people gaining coverage,” the Moody’s report said.

See: What the House Republican bill gets wrong about the health insurance market