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“We’re over two years into this downturn and starting to see signs this price recovery … just might be sustained at or above $50.”

As the year winds down and the chilly winter drilling season picks up, more signs are emerging that the oil price funk is fading and the grim recession might be on its way out in 2017.

At a weekend meeting, non-OPEC countries such as Russia and Mexico agreed to lower their production by 558,000 barrels per day next year, following the cartel’s decision last month to chop 1.2 million bpd.

In a surprise twist, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said the oil-rich kingdom was eyeing even further reductions in the new year.

Fuelled by the news, benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil surged above US$53 a barrel Monday on the New York Mercantile Exchange before closing at $52.83, up $1.33.

At the Alberta legislature, the happiest person under the dome was Finance Minister Joe Ceci, whose government forecasts oil prices will average $45 a barrel for the fiscal year.

Every $1-a-barrel increase over the course of the year is worth $130 million for the treasury, so an extra $7 a barrel goes a long way in a province expecting a record deficit.

“It certainly helps our budget out, but we’ve got a long ways to go,” Ceci told reporters. “I feel better about where oil is at this week than I did a month ago, for sure.”

And why not? Oil prices on Nov. 14 closed at just $43.32 a barrel.

But it’s an open question how much benefit will eventually flow to Canadian petroleum producers from OPEC’s tough talk of turning down the oil taps.