The Bookies’ Advantage squad scored bang on the average (42) in Gameweek 3, as some big guns (we’re looking at you, Sergio and Riyad) failed to fire and hurt our points potential. Our gains were made in defence, with a double clean sheet from the Chelsea boys, along with a 9 point haul from Antonio Valencia, keeping our overall score respectable. Read on as we analyse the bookmarkers’ odds for Gameweek 4 in order to help you make those all-important transfer, team selection and captaincy decisions…

Defensive odds

Team Clean sheet odds Chance of clean sheet Chelsea 2.25 44% Bournemouth 2.3 43% Arsenal 42% Tottenham 2.4 42% Middlesbrough 41% Liverpool 41% West Ham 41% Burnley 39% Everton 36% Man Utd 34% Hull 31% Crystal Palace 3.3 30% West Brom 3.5 29% Man City 3.8 26% Sunderland 4.2 24% Stoke 4.55 22% Watford 4.6 22% Southampton 6.1 16% Swansea 6.1 16% Leicester 6.5 15%

For the second week in succession, Chelsea top the bookmakers’ defensive ranks with a 44% chance of a clean sheet, as they look to record back-to-back shutouts at The Liberty on Sunday. The Swans have started the campaign poorly in front of goal, blanking in their only home game to date (against Hull) and scoring just 2 goals in 3 games. As a result, we once again look to Thibaut Courtois as a safe pair of hands between the sticks and couple him up with John Terry. Whilst the deadline day (re)signing of David Luiz and capture of Marcos Alonso places question marks over the Blues’ first choice back line, we expect Chelsea’s captain to remain in the starting XI for the immediate future.

Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth sit second in the defensive rankings this weekend, with the bookies affording them a 43% chance of a clean sheet when they host West Brom on Saturday afternoon. Despite the Cherries not keeping a clean sheet so far this season, a home tie against Tony Pulis’ defensively prioritised unit provides a solid opportunity to do, with the Baggies blanking last time out against Middlesbrough. Adam Smith has shown an eye for goal already this term, netting against Manchester United on the opening weekend, and makes our starting XI, whilst namesake Bradley will take a place on our bench, as we are unconvinced by a Bournemouth double up at the back.

Arsenal (42%), Tottenham (42%) and Middlesbrough (41%) complete the top 5 defensive prospects for fantasy managers this weekend. The Gunners entertain a Southampton side who have, so far, disappointed under new manager Claude Puel. The Saints failed to find the net in their opening away game of the season at Old Trafford in Gameweek 2, and similar frustration could be on the cards at The Emirates on Saturday. Rob Holding, who has played in all 3 of Arsenal’s league games so far, is our choice here as we expect him to hold (no pun intended) off Shkodran Mustafi for one more week whilst the German beds into North London. A trip to Stoke, who have started the season in poor form, offers Spurs the opportunity to record a second clean sheet of the campaign. Kyle Walker allied any injury worries by turning out for England on Sunday and makes our squad. Brad Guzan faces a Crystal Palace side struggling for goals at present (1 goal in 3 games) and completes our goalkeeping requirements.

Before moving onto our analysis of the bookmakers attacking odds, a quick look at the bottom rungs of the clean sheet ladder tells us that defensive assets from Southampton (16% – away to Arsenal, Swansea (16% – home to Chelsea) and Leicester (15% – away to Liverpool) should be avoided this weekend.

Attacking odds

Player Anytime goalscorer odds Chance of scoring Diego Costa 2.15 47% Olivier Giroud 2.28 44% Michy Batshuayi 2.4 42% Daniel Sturridge 2.4 42% Harry Kane 2.5 40% Alexis Sanchez 2.6 38% Romelu Lukaku 2.6 38% Roberto Firmino 2.6 38% Zlatan Ibrahimovic 2.62 38% Simone Zaza 36% Vincent Janssen 2.8 36% Eden Hazard 2.8 36% Sadio Mane 2.8 36% Andre Gray 2.8 36% Philippe Coutinho 2.88 35% Callum Wilson 3 33% Alvaro Negredo 3 33% Dimitri Payet 3 33% Willian 3.3 30% Wayne Rooney 3.35 30% Kelechi Iheanacho 3.4 29% Sam Vokes 3.4 29% Jermain Defoe 3.5 29% Cristhian Stuani 3.5 29% Abel Hernandez 3.5 29% Odion Ighalo 3.55 28% Erik Lamela 3.6 28% Manuel Lanzini 3.6 28% Michail Antonio 3.7 27% Salomon Rondon 3.75 27% Christian Eriksen 3.75 27% Kevin Mirallas 3.75 27% Yannick Bolasie 3.75 27% Jamie Vardy 3.75 27% Christian Benteke 3.8 26% Ross Barkley 3.85 26% Troy Deeney 3.85 26% Joshua King 3.95 25% Mesut Ozil 3.95 25% Wilfried Bony 4.1 24% Fernando Llorente 4.1 24% Shane Long 4.2 24% Charlie Austin 4.2 24% Bojan 4.2 24% Gerard Deulofeu 4.2 24% Loic Remy 4.25 24% Anthony Martial 4.33 23% Marko Arnautovic 4.33 23% Raheem Sterling 4.5 22% Nacer Chadli 4.5 22% Santiago Cazorla 4.5 22% Kevin de Bruyne 4.6 22% Gylfi Sigurdsson 4.6 22% Riyad Mahrez 4.6 22% Jordon Ibe 4.75 21% Duncan Watmore 4.8 21% Nathan Redmond 5 20% Gaston Ramirez 5 20% Robert Snodgrass 5.5 18% David Silva 6 17% Dusan Tadic 6 17% Andros Townsend 6.5 15% Leroy Fer 8 13% Roberto Pereyra 8.5 12% Etienne Capoue 13 8%

Diego Costa breaks Sergio Aguero’s 3 match spell as our captain by topping the attacking ranks for Gameweek 4, with a 47% chance of scoring when he faces Swansea on Sunday. The Swans have conceded twice in each of their last 2 games, and with Chelsea firing on all cylinders under Antonio Conte, it seems likely that Costa will add to the 2 goals and 1 assist he has already registered domestically this term. The Spaniard continued his good form on the international scene by scoring 2 and assisting another in 2 outings over the break.

Olivier Giroud (44%) and Simone Zaza (36%) join Costa up front in our starting XI. Giroud has been eased back into the Arsenal team by Arsene Wenger following his Euro 2016 exertions, however, he was on the scoresheet for France against Italy last Thursday and looks well-placed to start against a Southampton side yet to keep a clean sheet this term. Zaza, meanwhile, arrived on loan at West Ham from Juventus towards the end of the transfer window and will look to establish himself as the Hammers’ main man up top after bagging 8 goals in 24 appearances for the Old Lady last season.

Viable options that we have overlooked up front include Daniel Sturridge (42%), Harry Kane (40%), Romelu Lukaku and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (both 38%), as we elect to spend bigger in midfield, whilst Michy Batshuayi (42%) is omitted as we have already reached our full complement of Chelsea assets.

On the back of a 16 point payout in Gameweek 3 (1 goal, 2 assists, 3 bonus points), Alexis Sanchez takes his place in our starting XI for the visit of Southampton. The Chilean has the class and ability to explode in any given gameweek, and, with the Saints struggling to impress, he could be set for another monster haul on Saturday. Joining Alexis in our midfield is Roberto Firmino. Liverpool’s Brazilian OOP prospect registered his first attacking points (assist) last time out and a home game against champions Leicester looks like one that has goals written all over it, with the bookies strongly favouring a home win.

Dimitri Payet (33%) and Erik Lamela (28%) complete our starting lineup for the gameweek. Back to full fitness, Payet is expected to be restored to Slaven Bilic’s first XI following the Hammers’ indifferent start to the season. The mercurial Frenchman will be looking to kick on from a stunning debut campaign that saw him register 9 goals and 13 assists, with a home game against Watford offering him a great opportunity to get back amongst the points. Lamela, meanwhile, has been producing the goods more consistently this term, notching a goal, an assist and 4 bonus points over the opening 3 games, making him Tottenham’s highest-scoring FPL player this season so far. Stoke, who have conceded the joint-highest number of goals in the league (6 – along with Liverpool and Watford), are his opponents this weekend. Etienne Capoue (8%) once again completes our squad and takes a place on our bench with his form (2 goals in 3) and price (£4.5m) making him the perfect enabler in the middle of the park.

The bookies also fancy the chances of Eden Hazard (36%) and Willian (30%), but both miss out on our squad due to the fact that we already have 3 Chelsea players, whilst Sadio Mane (36%) and Philippe Coutinho (35%) are overlooked as we forgo the opportunity to double (or triple) up on Liverpool midfielders.

Team of the Week

Daniel Victory is a Fantasy football and anytime goalscorer betting enthusiast. Enjoys SSS – statistics, strategising and spreadsheets. Follow his great tips on Twitter. He will be back with Bookie’s Advantage articles this season!