FRIDAY UPDATE: As it churns by the coast of Cuba today, Hurricane Irma represents a historic threat to Miami and the people of Florida, but it will have only a minimal impact on New Jersey.

There is the potential for moderate to heavy rain here from Irma's remnants, according to Dean Iovino, a meteorologist at the Mount Holly office of the National Weather Service.

The latest track has the center of the storm lurching northwest to Tennessee by early Wednesday morning. It will have lost considerable power by that point, with wind speeds under 39 mph — a far cry from the 150 mph winds measured this morning.

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Irma is expected to shred apart as it passes over land and loses the energy it draws from warm ocean water.

Fragments of the storm could shoot off that path and head in our direction, Iovino said, bringing rain — widespread flooding is unlikely —​​​ by mid week.

"We'll be dry until then," he told the Asbury Park Press today, "which will benefit us because that will allow for us to take in a decent amount of rain before any flooding could occur."

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That doesn't mean the Shore will escape without any life-threatening conditions: Irma is already creating dangerous rip currents on the coast.

Hurricane Jose — another major Atlantic hurricane, but one without any expected landfall in America — will extend that threat into next week, Iovino said.

Below is the latest track for Irma from the NHC.

The projected path is an approximation, the National Hurricane Center cautions. It's subject to change and often does, if only slightly, especially on Day 4 and 5 of the forecast.

EARLIER: Sometime soon, Hurricane Irma, the most powerful Atlantic Ocean hurricane in recorded history, will begin to turn north toward the continental United States.

Whether it does so on the gulf side or ocean side of Florida could mean the difference between a few scattered showers in New Jersey or drenching downpours, unrelenting winds and coastal flooding here.

A Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 150 mph, Irma is swirling off the coast of Cuba today. Landfall in Florida this weekend is all but assured.

As the state's official climatologist, David Robinson has been looking at how similar hurricanes have behaved in the past. He's waiting to see when Irma bends to the north.

"The big key is that right turn," said Robinson, a geography professor at Rutgers. "We are at less risk the longer it takes to make that right turn, the better it is for serious impacts in New Jersey."

Here's what that means for us:

If Irma goes up Florida's Atlantic coast

Forecast models have been shifting east, putting the hurricane on a trek up the eastern edge of Florida.

That's problematic for Georgia, the Carolinas and potentially the entire mid-Atlantic region, including New Jersey.

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The storm would weaken as it barrels through South Carolina, for example, but it could still drop several inches of rain on New Jersey, Robinson said.

The nightmare scenario would see Irma riding up the coast, but staying offshore, where it would more gradually lose strength as it moves into the cooler waters off the Jersey Shore.

"The big question is how powerful is it when it gets here," Robinson said. "Does it weaken to a Category 3 or Category 1?"

In that situation, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge are all in play.

There is no indication that a direct hit on New Jersey is coming, said Steven DiMartino, senior meteorologist at WeatherOptics.

Irma's paths to New Jersey are through other states or as a glancing strike.

“I know a lot of people bring up Sandy," he said, "but the fact of the matter is that was such a unique situation. … This is nothing at all like Sandy, in any shape or form.”

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And it won't linger like Hurricane Harvey did when it stalled over Texas and dumped 40 inches or more in 48 hours.

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A polar disturbance in Canada holds the key to Irma's northbound timing, DiMartino said.

The faster that cold air drops to the south, the quicker it will nudge Irma's path toward the mainland, he said.

If Irma heads to the gulf side of Florida

The best outcome for New Jersey would be for Irma to stay south for as long as possible.

"The longer we can keep this storm over land south of us, the better," Robinson said. "Hurricanes feed off of warm ocean waters. You’re denying them their fuel when they are over land and you're pitting their winds against trees and mountains — there’s a frictional effect that weakens it."

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If that's the case, New Jersey can breathe a sigh of relief.

"You end up with probably no impacts, except for some rain a few days later," DiMartino said.

Uncertainty

By Friday evening, Robinson said, we should have a pretty good idea where Irma is headed.

It's unusual, he added, to be talking about a Caribbean storm as it relates to New Jersey nearly a week before the storm arrives here — if it arrives at all.

"The effects of the storm warrants discuss a few days in advance. This storm is so potentially deadly," he said.

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Hurricanes, especially when they become this powerful, are difficult to predict.

“When it comes to hurricanes, it's always a challenge," DiMartino said. "There is no such thing as an easy forecast.”

Stay plugged in, but New Jerseyans have no reason to panic, according to experts.

“Use this as an opportunity to get hurricane ready," Robinson said, when asked what advice he'd give, "but if they’ve got that already done, there is nothing to do really except pay attention.”

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Russ Zimmer: 732-557-5748, razimmer@app.com