As we eagerly await the release of Major League Rugby’s season two schedule, fans can only speculate on what is to come. Season one defied expectations. The Seattle Seawolves walked away with the first-ever MLR championship after a quiet preseason that had almost no fanfare. Houston and New Orleans (“NOLA”) fared far worse than predicted.

There were ups, there were downs. Surprise impact players emerged (see Zinzan Elan-Puttick). There were dramatic upsets (see Austin clobbering San Diego in Round 6). There were star-caliber performances (see Paul Lasike). You name it and it happened in the inaugural MLR season.

And, with any new organization, there is bound to be volatility. Especially one with MLR’s ambition and scale. Season two will see, in all likelihood, the expansion of the league to incorporate two new teams. With growth, expect even more of the unexpected.

FIVE BOLD PREDICTIONS FOR MLR 2019

Glendale does not make the final four

No team represents the core of American rugby like the Glendale Raptors do. I’ve referred to Glendale before as the Leinster of American rugby, and the place has earned the name Rugbytown USA for a reason. As expected, Glendale cruised through MLR ’18. At least until the championship match.

But the landscape is changing and changing fast. As popularity grows at home, bigger metropolitan areas are pulling in and consolidating talent. The high-level experience that once belonged solely to Glendale is no longer their monopoly. A touring team, albeit not a full strength one, ventured up to Canada and was soundly defeated earlier this fall by newcomers Ontario Arrows.

All these factors contribute to a mounting body of evidence that suggests Glendale is in store for a regression. With the strength of new entrants Rugby United New York and the aforementioned Arrows and the expected improvement in teams across the board, Glendale misses the final four this season.

Both expansion teams make the playoffs

Typically, you think of expansion teams as easy pickings for the rest of the league. When the Arizona Diamondbacks won the World Series in 2001, they became the quickest baseball expansion team to grab the world title. It took them three years. In their first year, 1998, they were a sad 65-97. In MLR, however, both RUNY and Ontario bring significant talent to bear in their opening campaigns.

RUNY has kept the Twitterverse on its feet with constant signings, including recently adding USA Eagle veterans Luke Hume and Mike Petri. Ontario is, arguably, more developed of a rugby community than anywhere in the states. Both teams have looked impressive in their limited playing sample sizes. New kids on the block they may be, but expect to see them in the elimination rounds.

The south will not rise again

The Texas and New Orleans region of the USA is a great place for rugby. However, each of the three southern teams (NOLA, Houston, and Austin) struggled mightily in Major League Rugby’s first season. Houston, in particular, appears loaded with talent and many observers expect the SaberCats to emerge this year as the team we all expected last spring.

Not me.

The South took the bottom three spots in the season one table, amassing an uninspiring 7-17 record. But even that needs to be put into some context.

It’s hot in the south. Rugby is tiring. Visitors had much more difficulty when traveling to the Gulf states than they did in the more moderate climate zones. In fact, the southern three had only a single, solitary win outside the South all season (NOLA over Utah in Round 9).

But MLR ’19 is widely expected to have an earlier schedule to accommodate more games. That will reduce the impact of the southern heat. What’s more, with two cold climate teams entering the league, many expect an unbalanced schedule that sees warm climates hosting in the cooler early months. Without the heat to back them, the South will win an even lower percentage of matches than it did in season one.

MLR will cause club D1 and D2 to consolidate

Club rugby in the USA is a funny thing. Before the emergence of PRO and then MLR, D1 club rugby was the highest tier in the land. But it was always a fairly small venture. D2 was the bulk of pretty good adult American rugby. For example, the Atlantic North men’s region has four D1 teams, including the dubiously “north” Life. There are 30 D2 teams in the Atlantic North.

One of the main reasons for the split, historically, was travel costs. The best players in the country wanted to face each other and they were spread out. As amateur clubs, players had to pay their own costs, which can be very expensive when your closest fixture is a four-hour drive and a hotel stay away. It was only worth it for the best of the best.

Now, with MLR scooping up most of those top-tier players, it is unclear if the divisions still make sense. The talent level remaining in D1 will, of necessity, converge on that of D2. Given the scarcity of D1 teams and the mass of D2 teams, it makes more sense across the board for those groups to consolidate into one.

One of the original seven franchises will not survive to season three

No one wants to see this happen. But, for all the entertainment value provided thus far, the economics don’t look quite as compelling. Data is hard to come by, but presumably that’s because it isn’t especially positive. The Seawolves aren’t shy about their ability to sell tickets. Other franchises probably wouldn’t be either if they were doing equally well.

Reasonable business people probably expected these franchises not to generate cash for the first few years. It was always going to be a long-term business opportunity. Still, not everyone has the stomach they think they do when it comes absorbing losses today for the prospect of tomorrow. With all these new franchises chomping at the bit to join, I imagine there may be one or two wishing they could pull the ripcord.

Utah might be the leading contender. Waving goodbye to their cornerstones Paul Lasike and Kurt Morath, the team is already without clear field leadership. They’ve also been totally silent in the lead up to season two. But honestly, it could be almost anyone. On the field spectacle is a long way from the bottom line, and there are a lot of bottom lines under pressure. Don’t be surprised if one buckles.