Kirk Herbstreit admits that it's an obvious choice to have Alabama, Clemson, Michigan and Washington sitting atop the CFP committee rankings now that four previously unbeaten teams lost on the road in Week 9. (2:38)

Both Clemson and Louisville have survived close games this season, drawing some criticism for the way in which they have won.

But at this point in the race to make the College Football Playoff, there is a stark difference between Clemson winning a close game and Louisville winning a close game: The Tigers are undefeated, and the Cardinals are not.

All Clemson has to do is win out, and its spot in the playoff is guaranteed. Those games could go to overtime, end on a fluke, or finish 6-3 -- as long as Clemson is the winning team, no style points need to be scored.

Louisville, though, is attempting the unprecedented: earning an at-large selection without being a conference champion. Style points do matter for the Cards when it comes to impressing the committee because they have a much bigger point to prove: that they are the most deserving among those remaining in contention.

Winning alone is not going to be enough. First, the Cards need outside help. At the top of the list? Washington needs to lose. Next, it needs to make a better case than the nearest one-loss teams that pose a threat.

When the committee begins to meet Monday, it will compare resumes and take into account several variables, including strength of schedule, strength of record, game control, margin of victory and others. Committee members understand teams will end up playing close games over the course of the season, and they generally even out from team to team when all is said and done.

For Louisville, just winning -- as the Cardinals did at Virginia on Saturday -- won't be enough to ensure a CFP berth. Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports

So they might be more forgiving when Louisville struggles against Virginia, and Ohio State struggles with Northwestern. But struggling in games in which they are double-digit favorites cannot be the norm. Especially when the margin between teams is so slim.

Louisville, Ohio State and Texas A&M are the top one-loss teams, so their positioning when the first committee rankings come out Tuesday will give us our first glimpse at how they are being viewed, close wins and all.

In its past two games, Ohio State lost on the road to Penn State, then barely beat Northwestern. The Buckeyes are not playing up to their own standards. But their resume as a whole has highlights, with a nonconference victory over Oklahoma, and a win over top-10 Wisconsin. Both those victories trump anything Louisville has on its schedule.

Texas A&M has a loss to the No. 1 team in the nation, plus a win over Auburn. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Texas A&M has the No. 3 strength of record in the country; Louisville is at No. 8.

Louisville has done an incredible job in the "eye test" and margin of victory categories, with way more impressive victories over Florida State and NC State than Clemson. But its best win right now is over three-loss Florida State, and its nonconference schedule features Kentucky (Nov. 26).

That is why a close win over Virginia (2-6) is not going to enhance the cause. Nor is a tighter-than-expected win over Duke (3-5). The committee is going to be splitting hairs when it comes down to it, and with so little margin for error, wins alone down the stretch might not be enough.

Especially since Louisville has a 69 percent chance to win out, best of any FBS team. That means the Cards are expected to win, and more than likely, expected to beat most of their upcoming opponents pretty soundly. As badly as Ohio State struggled to beat Northwestern, the Wildcats have a better record than Virginia and Duke.

It might seem unfair, but that close loss to Clemson makes all the difference in the way Louisville will be judged. Clemson and Michigan can struggle to beat rivals, but as long as they stay undefeated, they have a pass into the top four. Louisville has to win out and look impressive doing it, while also getting help from others.

The best play for Louisville looks like this: Washington loses, Michigan beats Ohio State and Texas A&M goes down somewhere along the way (LSU to close the season?). That eliminates the biggest one-loss threats.

But then another question arises: If Washington finishes as a one-loss Pac-12 champion, does it get the nod ahead of one-loss Louisville? The Huskies have played the easiest nonconference schedule in the country, and they might get penalized for that. But being a conference champion could give them an edge Louisville cannot beat.

That is why winning impressively matters so much for the Cards. Their path to the playoff is uncharted and unknown. The best way to plan for that is to make sure they give the committee absolutely no reason to keep them out if they are in the conversation on Dec. 4. Struggling against losing teams might be reason enough.