As we prepared to kick off the third season of the Overwatch League, the OWL website released predictions from 12 different casters, analysts, and hosts. We got to see who the OWL talent thought would win MVP, Rookie Of The Year, who would be the Dark Horse, who would win each division. It was interesting to see some of the more unlikely candidates, such as Andrew “ZP” Rush’s prediction of LA Gladiators DPS Gia Huy “MirroR” Trinh as Rookie Of The Year. But to me, the most surprising thing about this article was when the talent were asked who would bring home the trophy of 2020 Overwatch League Champion.

The San Francisco Shock won the 2019 Season, but I was surprised to see how many people expected them to continue their reign in 2020

Here’s a question: out of the 12 experts asked, how many do you think predicted the 2019 champions, the San Francisco Shock to win?

Unless you already read the article, there’s a good chance that you were wrong, because the answer is 12. Yep, out of the 12 people asked, not a single one predicted a team other than the Shock to win.

This was shocking to me (no pun intended). Sure, the Shock were insane, and it wasn’t like they lost anything this offseason. But nobody was willing to pick anyone else? It wasn’t like the Shock were so clearly head-and-shoulders above the rest; there were teams like the NYXL or the Atlanta Reign, who many placed as top 3 in their preseason power rankings.

Now, of course, as I said, picking the Shock isn’t an objectively bad decision. Considering how strong the Shock were last year, they’re the logical conclusion to win this year as well. With the Vancouver Titans, their only real rival last year, generally considered to have lost more than they gained over the offseason, many people picked the Shock to start the first Overwatch League dynasty.

Often credited as the one of if not the best main support in the world, Grant “Moth” Espe is an integral part to the Shock’s success

However, I’m making my case against this. Not only are there new, revamped teams such as the Philadelphia Fusion looking to take San Francisco’s spot, I believe that, due to the nature of the League itself, dynasties are inherently near impossible to form in the Overwatch League.

While many look to the London Spitfire to prove my point, I don’t necessarily agree with that. While London were undoubtedly the best team in the world at the end of the 2018 season, they struggled throughout the year, only really coming alive in the playoffs. With a new meta in 2019, London failed to adapt, losing their chance at forming a dynasty of their own. Meanwhile, the Shock have shown to be relatively meta-proof throughout their season; in addition, while the 2018 London roster was mostly thought to be carried by a few key players, I do think that the 2019 Shock really are a “superteam”, with every starter being at least top 3 in their positions, including their coaches. However, I don’t think they’ll be as much as a “superteam” as they are now.

Let’s look at an example to support the Shock’s cause. Let’s go to 2017 Korea to look at the first (and currently only) Overwatch dynasty, Lunatic-Hai.

Lunatic-Hai, the best team in the world before the Overwatch League, built a dynasty by winning OGN APEX Season 2 and OGN APEX Season 3

Like the 2019 Shock, Lunatic-Hai was, for the most part, a superteam. You had the undisputed best Winston in the world in Jinhyeok “Miro” Gong, a top 3 if not the best Zarya player in Joonhyeok “Zunba” Kim, the #1 Lucio in Jinmo “Tobi” Yang, a top 3 Genji in Seungjun “WhoRU” Lee, a top 2 Sombra player in Injae “EscA” Kim, and, of course, Jehong “Ryujehong” Ryu, who most people considered not only the best Ana in the world, the best flex support in the world, and the best support player in the world, but also the best player in the world of any role.

And, as it was, Lunatic-Hai did create a dynasty, winning OGN APEX seasons 2 and 3 back-to-back. Later on, they would form the Seoul Dynasty. CEO Kevin Chou explained why they chose the name “Dynasty.”

“Dynasty is also a special word in sports, used sparingly to refer to a team that has won several championships. It’s an important nod to what Lunatic-Hai has accomplished, winning back to back APEX championships.”

While Lunatic-Hai entered the Overwatch League as the Seoul Dynasty, many consider their dynasty to be over, as they weren’t as dominant as they were before the OWL and their players have either split up or retired

So Lunatic-Hai really did form a Dynasty, no doubt about it. But personally, I believe that what separates Lunatic-Hai and the San Francisco Shock is the very structure of the leagues that they play in.

The term “dynasty” is used in professional sports to describe when a team wins the championship multiple times within a span of time. An example of this is the New England Patriots of the NFL, who won the Super Bowl in 2001, 2003, 2004, 2014, 2016, and 2018, still being considered a top team even in the years they didn’t win. But I don’t think the Shock will be able to sustain a similar dominance.

The reason why comes from the fundamental difference between the NFL and the OWL: the draft system.

See, for the NFL, every year, teams go in order to sign upcoming talent, those who were seniors in college the year before. While there are offseason trades and free agent pickups, the draft is the main source of incoming talent for teams. However, it’s rare that a rookie ends up starting for a team, especially on a team already stacked with talent such as the Patriots. What this means is that, between 2019 and 2020, the core of the team’s roster will remain mostly the same.

However, in the OWL, there is no draft. Rather, teams are free to sign any player from Contenders (or even Tier 3 in some cases) as long as such player is over 18. This means that there is a much larger upcoming talent pool, as most teams sign players not only at the age of 18, but also those in their 20’s who recently had a good year in Contenders. This allows teams like the London Spitfire to completely rebuild their entire roster, much like the Shock did themselves after Season 1. The level of competition drastically increases every year, making it so much harder for the Shock to maintain their dominance.

While the Shock is still a “superteam”, explosive new rookies such as the Philadelphia Fusion’s flex support Kyeongbo “Alarm” Kim are ready to win the 2020 Season

What about Lunatic-Hai, then? Well, the key difference for me is that, while one OWL season takes place over the course of an entire year, APEX seasons only took a couple of months. This meant that there was only so much talent available for the next season of APEX, while there’s an entire year’s worth of developed players ready for the Overwatch League. This is why, for the most part, the same teams that were dominant in APEX S1 were mostly the same teams that placed high in APEX S3. The outlier is KongDoo Panthera, who placed second in S3 after a 5–8 finish in S2; this is due to the KongDoo org being free to move players between their two teams, giving all of their best players to the Panthera roster, while the sister team, Uncia, was left to rot and placed significantly lower in S3.

Essentially, with the current structure of the League, the level of competition will change significantly each year, making it much harder to build a dynasty. Whether that’s a good or bad thing, well, that’s up to debate. But with the way things are, I just don’t see the Shock creating their dynasty until the very structure of the League changing. Teams have been working hard this offseason (not that the Shock hasn’t) and they’re ready to win it all this year. And with hero pools coming in, even less things are certain.

Of course, this is just my own opinion, and I’d love to hear what everyone else thinks. I’d also like to apologize for releasing this so late; I intended to finish this piece after I first saw the predictions article (almost a month ago), but schoolwork has been rough lately and I’ve been having less and less free time. Thanks for reading!