Chris Berman has taken his Swami Sez NFL picks segment, seen on SportsCenter, to ESPN Chalk. Each week during the NFL regular season, he'll give his favorite picks against the spread here with a little further analysis.

Season record: 31-15 ATS

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger looked as if he started to knock the rust off in the fourth quarter last week against Baltimore. Dallas has been rolling and has given up only 20-plus points in one game since mid-September. But they're due for an average performance sometime, aren't they? This is one of two home games for Pittsburgh in an eight-week stretch. The Steelers need this one, and they get it.

Score: Pittsburgh 24, Dallas 20

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots

This has all the makings of a bad matchup for Seattle, coming off a short week and with a red-hot New England team off a bye. But the Seahawks are a veteran squad with a proud defensive unit that knows what it's getting itself into here. The Patriots can't wrap up home-field advantage in the playoffs yet, can they? I think they get tripped up here, as Seattle wins it in an upset.

Score: Seattle 24, New England 23

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers

Kansas City has really played only one complete game (Week 6 at Oakland) this season and the Chiefs dominated. This seems like a similar situation against a Carolina team that has strung together two wins. I'm not concerned about Alex Smith off his one-game absence, and the Panthers weren't able to score much against Los Angeles. I think the Kansas City defense does enough here to get them the win.

Score: Kansas City 20, Carolina 18

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles

Atlanta is a contender, but this is the only home game Philadelphia gets in a month. With a young QB in Carson Wentz, that's a bigger advantage than for other teams. I don't think they can match the Falcons in a shootout, but this Eagles defense is good enough that it won't get to that point.

Score: Philadelphia 31, Atlanta 28

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers

The Chargers didn't get the stadium vote, but they still have Philip Rivers. This team is playing well and, at 4-5, has a chance to get back to .500 with a bye on deck. That would be an impressive accomplishment with the tough losses San Diego has suffered so far. This will a fun game to watch with Melvin Gordon and Jay Ajayi both looking to put on a show. San Diego gets the win here, with Rivers becoming the ninth QB to pass for 300 touchdowns (he's at 298 right now).

Score: San Diego 30, Miami 24