With the final 16 UCL draw well and truly revealed, one can see the reason behind the utter delirium many Arsenal fans find themselves in. After all, it’s only the second time in five years that we haven’t drawn one of the FCB’s (German or Spanish).

The final 16 pits us against Monaco, which certainly is welcome news for Monsieur Wenger. In addition to not facing the pressure of having to make it look like we will stand a chance against an European giant, he can return to the team he’d managed from the late 80’s to the mid-90’s. Also, it was where he first met a certain French bloke, one Thierry Henry.

The most outstanding feature of Monaco which has been brought up on most discussions has been its defensive record. In its six group games, (w3-d2-l1), Danijel Subasic has just had to pick the ball from his net just once. Conversely, though, they (proudly) lead the charts in terms of least goals scored and least number of chances created amongst the remaining UCL teams. The other 15 UCL teams have both outscored and created more goalscoring opportunities.

A statistical analysis of Monaco (thank you WhoScored) reveals that Monaco have scored 55% of their goals from open play. Due to the abundance in technical quality that they possess as compared to most of Ligue 1, the French outfit are used to dominating games. And, the statistics imply that Monaco are a possession-based team with a penchant for establishing control in football games.

However, as Borussia Dortmund have shown, one’s performance in its domestic league can be markedly different from performances in the UCL. In the UCL, Monaco often rely on a 4-3-3 formation, as opposed to a fluid 4-2-3-1 which they constantly use back at home. In addition, they average 45.7% in possession in Europe, as compared to 51.5% in Ligue 1. Furthermore, they rely much more heavily on attacking via the flanks in Europe.

A breakdown of Monaco’s game from matchday 5, a 1-0 win away at Leverkusen, reveals that Monaco could tweak its gameplan against sides which will dominate possession. In this game, the Germans dominated possession and completed more than twice the number of passes Monaco did. As it happened, Monaco sat deep1 and opted to play it long2. Additionally, Monaco relied on getting down the flanks3. Interestingly, Monaco’s compact defending caused Leverkusen, too, to rely on the flanks. When that happened, Monaco were not shy to draw fouls4, perhaps because of its strength in defending set pieces.

A more dated match, the 1-1 draw at the Parc de Princes, suggests the same. The statistics were similar in terms of ball recoveries5 and direction of attacking-third passes6.

Unsurprisingly, in its most recent win over Marseille, Monaco were once again willing to sit deep7 and hit Marseille on the counter.

From these indicators there seems to be a few relevant conclusions:

Monaco concede possession against technically superior teams and rely on the wings to get on the counter-attack.

Defensively Monaco are solid. Especially in defending set pieces.

It’s arguably true that when Arsenal do play Monaco, chances are, we’re expected to dominate proceedings. While Monaco were widely considered to be ‘lucky’ to get this far, we should take nothing from their solid performances. We will have to take our chances against a very well-organised side. And of course hope the French side doesn’t.

1http://www.fourfourtwo.com/statszone/5-2014/matches/782773/team-stats/146/2_ATTACK_05#tabs-wrapper-anchor

2http://www.fourfourtwo.com/statszone/5-2014/matches/782773/team-stats/146/1_PASS_12#tabs-wrapper-anchor

3http://www.fourfourtwo.com/statszone/5-2014/matches/782773/team-stats/146/1_PASS_08#tabs-wrapper-anchor

4http://www.fourfourtwo.com/statszone/5-2014/matches/782773/team-stats/146/4_FOULS_01#tabs-wrapper-anchor

5http://www.fourfourtwo.com/statszone/24-2014/matches/751748/team-stats/146/2_ATTACK_05#tabs-wrapper-anchor

6http://www.fourfourtwo.com/statszone/24-2014/matches/751748/team-stats/146/1_PASS_08#tabs-wrapper-anchor

7http://www.fourfourtwo.com/statszone/24-2014/matches/751838/team-stats/146/OVERALL_01#tabs-wrapper-anchor