OTTAWA—As Quebec’s Charter of Values draws national condemnation, speculation about national political fallout naturally focused on opposition leader Tom Mulcair and his Quebec caucus.

But that focus may be misplaced.

The NDP leader has proved adept at keeping his Quebec caucus in line in the past, and his most pressing problems in the months ahead actually lie in Toronto, Montreal and, potentially, British Columbia.

The first shoe(s) to drop will be the byelections in Toronto Centre and Bourassa.

Both are Liberal-held, opened by the departure of two high-profile MPs: Toronto’s Bob Rae, the former interim party leader, and former Liberal cabinet minister Denis Coderre, now running for mayor of Montreal.

Mulcair has already done what politicians do — lowered expectations by declaring that both ridings are the Liberals’ to lose — but he knows that his party is facing a crucial mid-term test in both.

If Mulcair cannot grab a win in one of those two urban ridings, he must further grow the party’s vote significantly in both or face some very tough questions heading into a general election in 2015.

The next shoe will drop sometime early in the new year with the departure of Olivia Chow.

As my colleague Bob Hepburn pointed out last week, the Trinity-Spadina MP will mount a challenge to Toronto Mayor Rob Ford after winning assurances that other left-progressive candidates will sit out the race instead of cluttering the anti-Ford field.

Chow can file her nomination papers as early as the second day of the year, but whenever she makes it official Mulcair will be losing an MP who acted as a mentor to many in his young caucus, particularly his female MPs.

He will lose a respected member of that caucus, who had grown out of the shadow of her late spouse, former leader Jack Layton, and draws large, enthusiastic crowds on her own. She is also the most obvious face of the Layton Orange Wave from 2011 on which so many of the new MPs rode to victory. Her departure will further turn the page from that historic campaign and brand this NDP as Mulcair’s party.

There is also concern within the party that Chow will take with her to Toronto some valuable and experienced backroom talent.

The potential next shoe could be the departure of Mulcair’s talented and popular House leader Nathan Cullen, who must decide whether to stay at Mulcair’s side as a key lieutenant or seek the leadership of the British Columbia New Democrats.

Cullen did not respond to a request for comment over the weekend, but his name is being bandied about, both here and in B.C.

The federal and provincial parties on the West Coast are separate entities and the provincial party always takes precedence because of its potential for power (a potential it has repeatedly squandered).

Some in British Columbia believe the provincial party could fracture in the post-Adrian Dix era, with the greens (Cullen’s natural constituency) battling the browns, sparking internal battles over pipelines and industrial development.

There will be no chance to win power there until 2017, and Premier Christy Clark has proven to be a formidable opponent. A new NDP leader in British Columbia could spend a long time in the opposition wilderness.

In short, it’s not a great job.

But those who talk up a Cullen candidacy also talk of a fresh start. He did not come up through the provincial party and thus carries none of the baggage of the Dix, Carole James or Glen Clark eras.

As he proved during his 2012 federal leadership run, in which he reach an unexpected third, Cullen campaigns with a smile and a sense of humour, an antidote to the dour, cardboard Dix.

Cullen also has a young family and one of the most gruelling commutes to Ottawa of any MP from his northern B.C. home riding of Skeena-Bulkley Valley. As House leader, he is expected to be here more often than anyone else in caucus.

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The Toronto-born Cullen might decide his odds are better as a successor to Mulcair one day, but he has previously contemplated a run for the B.C. job.

All this, of course, will be viewed through the prism of the next federal election. If Mulcair loses two byelections and two key MPs in the coming months, he will have to fight to ensure that is not seen as a referendum on his 2015 electoral prospects.

Tim Harper is a national affairs writer. His column appears Monday, Wednesday and Friday. tharper@thestar.ca Twitter:@nutgraf1

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