ANN ARBOR, MI -- Michigan Medicine has put its field hospital plans on hold as experts predict the health system’s COVID-19 cases are significantly lower than expected.

Early predictions by University of Michigan Health System clinicians suggested Michigan Medicine could hit its 1,000-bed capacity by Friday, April 10, in a worst-case scenario. Officials considered building a 500-bed “step-down” field hospital for recovering coronavirus patients at the university’s indoor track on South State Street by that date.

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Now, hospital modeling suggests mitigation efforts, like social distancing, indicate the field hospital may not be needed at this time. Spokeswoman Mary Masson said the health system no longer has a target date to open a field hospital.

“It appears from current COVID-19 cases and modeling that the curve is significantly flattening," Michigan Medicine said in a statement. "We are in communication with state officials to coordinate and determine future need. Our ongoing focus is on our current capacity and readiness to serve patients in our existing hospital facilities.”

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Models released on Tuesday, March 31, suggested mitigation efforts could bring down the number of COVID-19 projected patients in Michigan Medicine hospitals by as much as 65% compared to the worst-case projections.

It’s unclear how much current projections have changed in the last week. Michigan Medicine has also declined to specify how many hospitalized patients remain in critical condition. Doctors also were not available for further comment Thursday afternoon, April 9.

The “epidemic curve” is a term used by public health officials to illustrate how coronavirus cases are trending over time, often showing exponential growth during outbreaks. The goal is to flatten this curve so there’s not a dramatic peak in cases that overwhelm the healthcare system.

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Michigan Medicine had 219 confirmed COVID-19 patients in its hospitals as of Thursday afternoon, April 9, according to information shared daily. About 175 patients have been discharged since the hospital began tracking information on March 21. Twenty-four patients were discharged in the last day, data shows.

There were 21,504 confirmed coronavirus cases and 1,076 deaths in Michigan as of Thursday,, according to the latest numbers provided by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.

In Washtenaw County, there were 603 cases and 12 deaths as of Wednesday afternoon, April 8, according to Washtenaw County Health Department data.

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