A funny thing happened on the way back from the Debate Thursday night . . .

As I noted in my previous post HERE, Texas’ newspapers seemed to have many commenters who thought Debra Medina had acquitted herself well in the debate on Thursday.

Possibly as a reaction to that apparent groundswell of support, many of these newspapers put up unscientific polls of their readers to see who they thought won the debate.

The results were surprising. The Texans Uniting for Reform and Freedom website, an admittedly anti-Perry Group, shows an overwhelming vote for Medina:

CBS-11 in Dallas had a similar result:

My Fox Dallas-Fort Worth was also similar:

As well as the Fort Worth Star-Telegram too:

In fact, eight of eight polls agree:

Source Perry % Hutchison % Medina % Medina Votes Total T.U.R.F. 8.7 3.6 87.8 344 392 CBS-11 in Dallas 8 7 76 unk. unk. My Fox Dallas-Ft Worth 14 16 68 unk. 2517 Fort Worth Star-Telegram 14 15 62 661 1073 Big Country Blog 10 13 71.3 855 unk. Abilene Reporter-News 7 8 83 1186 1426 Univision TV 4 1 95 363 unk. KEYE Austin 11.9 16.5 56 unk. unk.

This is where I put my Bachelor’s in Psychology and statistics to work. The first thing I noted is that the sample sizes seem to vary greatly. While two of the polls have the total number of respondents in the 300’s, the others var from around one thousand to around 1500 to around two thousand. Were the Medina campaign trying to taint the results by over-voting the surveys, the sample sizes would be more regular.

But some of the surveys, while including the nubmer of total votes or votes for one candidate, do not have all the information. We can infer this data by doing the math on the known variables, as I have in the revised table below. (Inferred data is in italics and starred*.)

And with a little re-arrangement for clarity, we have this:

Source Perry % Hutchison % Medina % Medina Votes Total Univision TV 4 1 95 363 382* T.U.R.F. 8.7 3.6 87.8 344 392 Fort Worth Star-Telegram 14 15 62 661 1073 Big Country Blog 10 13 71.3 855 1199* Abilene Reporter-News 7 8 83 1186 1426 My Fox Dallas-Ft Worth 14 16 68 1712* 2517 KEYE Austin 11.9 16.5 56 unk. unk. CBS-11 in Dallas 8 7 76 unk. unk.

As widely as the sample sizes vary, it would be impossible for a dedicated band of, say, 350 or so Medina followers to influence the results of a poll of 2,517 respondents. This lends credibility to the results, even though the people surveyed in these polls are more likely to be active politically, and more “fired up” for their respective candidates.

Interesting. So it actually appears to show a groundswell of support for Debra Medina among committed political activists.

The survey for We Are Austin.com is actually a survey about the election with ALL candidates, Republican and Democrat, included.

So according to We Are Austin.com, not only does Debra Medina place far ahead of all other Republican challengers (including the incumbent Governor), she would even beat the very popular former Houston Mayor Bill White by a 6 to one margin.

And, again, obviously not a scientific poll, but . . . . interesting.

I have it on very good source that the Rasmussen organization will do a survey of the Texas Governor’s Race this coming week. Apparently this race is generating significant “buzz” in the powers that be.

Awaiting those results as well.

~Johnny~