As I said in last week’s Pick Your Spots, the first few weeks of the season are tough for spot starting. It is a volatile portion of the season as some players are less ready than others to play, and the only data we have to rely on at this point of the season is historic data. I just don’t trust any of the data from the first week of the season as anything more than a good or bad start to the season. If you are high on a player in 2018, a good start reinforces that, if you are bearish on a player, a bad start reinforces that. We have a long way to go before 2018 is in the books. So, let’s see how my 1st week’s picks turned out. You know, just to give myself false praise or false criticism, or blame someone else, all tricks I learned being a citizen of the USA in 2017. No, I didn’t really say that.

Patrick Corbin, AZ – Seriously, did you pick him up yet? 2 Starts, 2 Wins, 1 QS, 13 IP, 8 Hits, 2 BB, 14 K/9 1.38 ERA 0.77 WHIP. I’m telling you again, he is breaking out this season and will have a career year.

Jordan Montgomery, NYY – 5 IP, 2 Hits, 4 BB, 4 K’s, 1.80/1.20 and 7.2 K/9. Yup, he walked a few too many in the first week of the season. Is he still on your wire? Fantrax decided today that he would make for a good WW pickup. He is on all my teams other than the leagues that had a lot of Yankee fans. They beat me to him.

Zack Davies, MIL – Can’t win them all, especially in week one. Davies went 5.2 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, 6 K, 6 R but a 9.53 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He got hit, he got K’s, he didn’t walk anyone. Don’t give up on him. (EDIT: On Saturday 4/7 Davies pitched a beauty, going 6 innings with 8 K’s and 3 walks with 4 hits and no runs. He did not get the W but it was not his fault. Nice rebound from one of my favorite spotters)

Jake Odorizzi, MIN – 2 Starts, 10.1 IP, 7 H, 5 BB, 9 K, 1 QS, 2.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and a 7.84 K/9. Has to get the innings up for W’s and the walks down, but overall a good couple of starts.

Carson Fulmer, CWS – An inning shy of a QS, 5 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K, 3 ER, 5.40, 1.25, 9 K/9 – I can’t take credit for a great start here, but not a blowout either.

Matt Harvey, NYM – 5 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 5 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.40 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 – A Harvey HR. No, I’m not starting him Sunday in WAS. You are not either, right?

Steven Matz, NYM – 4 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K, 9.0 K/BB – I have to take a loss here, but at least he is getting K’s. Harvey and Matz have talent worth taking a risk on, at least for a month or so. (Edit: On Sat 4/7, Matz had a rebound game giving up no runs on 3 hits and 2 walks but striking out 8 in 5 innings. I’ll take it)

Giving Fulmer a loss, and Davies 2nd start a W, as well as Matz’s 2nd start, I’m calling that 8-3 for the first week of the “Pick Your Spots 2018 Season, and no one, other than Davies really got blown out. I’ll take it. But lets do better this week.

Here is a quick fantasy tip (and a shameless plug): If you do your research, and find that all your target spot starters are available on the wire in EVERY league you are in, you are either in a very shallow league, or none of your league mates are doing as much research as you are. Good if all you want is the ring, bad if you want to play in competitive leagues. Conversely, if you go to the wire with your list and are finding that only one, two, or even none of your targets are available, then you are in a competitive league and better up your game to compete. Or, maybe your league mates read my article every week and get there first. So, the best strategy is to Read My Article and then Up Your Game as well. That was a shameless plug for myself considering I’m not really a fantasy savant or anything. I just do my research and trust my gut enough to write about it.

Because of a glitch in the 2018 schedule, plus rain-outs and scheduled oddball off-days, there are not a lot of quality two-start pitchers this week. Remember, this season I may list some two start pitchers, but it is possible only one of the starts are worthy of a spot start. Feel free to only use one of them and grab a different pitcher for the other half of the week.

I’m still going to rely on 2017 stats for opponents as I can’t take the first week stats too seriously, however, if we are talking about teams like the Indians who have only one lineup player hitting over .200, we have to assume that trend continues…..until it doesn’t. Let’s Pick Some Spots!

1. Patrick Corbin, AZ – Aw, bummer. He is 79% owned in ESPN and 98% owned in Fantrax. Listen to me next time. Take a look, if he is still there grab him. Then find a better league next season. If he is not still there, you were just too late.

(The real week 2 #1) – Jordan Montgomery, LHSP, NYY: @ DET SAT (49.9% ownership in ESPN) – This may not be the best match-up on this list but Monty is the best pitcher in the US that is less than 50% owned in ESPN Leagues. Like Patrick Corbin he should not be on this list as he just should be owned in all leagues. Call this your last chance to pick him up. This week he gets the Tigers in Detroit. It is a small sample, but in Detroit, the Tigers are averaging just over 5 runs per game and hitting .256. In 2017 the Tigers hit .285 with a .373 wOBA vs lefties at home, but this is a different team. They’ve played 5 games vs lefties so far in 2018 and are hitting just .225 with only seven runs scored in the 5 games. Montgomery is going to get run support, and therefore has a chance to get W’s since he can go deep into games. Monty – Own him, love him, don’t throw him back. Tanner Roark, RHSP, WAS: VS COL FRI (44.7% ownership in ESPN): Roark continues to get little respect in fantasy circles. He is not an ace, but how many of those are there? This is a reliable starter who will often get the innings and run support needed for some wins. Wins are still fantasy scoring cats in most leagues, so you need some. He also has a nice start this week that may put his ownership out of reach when all is said and done. In 2017, Colorado, hit .244 with an .297 wOBA (27th in MLB) against righties away. We all know the Rockies are not the same team on the road as they are in the mountains. This is a good week to take advantage of that. Roark’s wife says he cleans up well. Do you agree? I know, I know, you are not looking at him. Tyler Mahle, RHSP, CIN: vs STL SAT (23% owned in ESPN): Mahle has looked pretty good so far in 2018, going 6 innings in his first start striking out 7 vs 3 walks. In 2017 he started 4 games with fairly good success (2.70 ERA) though he did have a 14/11 K/BB in 20 IP. The Cards hit .254 with a .321 wOBA (10th in the MLB) in 2017 vs righties on the road. This season the Cards are hitting .235 so far and averaging 4.28 runs per game or just below average in the NL. Over his past three minor league seasons, Mahle is 37-21 with 414 K’s and only 92 BB in 447 Innings Pitched. That is pretty consistent, and impressive considering his ERA was under 3.00 for those three seasons. I’m bringing him in for the STL game, I will admit though that the fact he looks a lot like Phil Hughes scares me. Even his delivery. ***TWO-START PITCHER***Carson Fulmer, RHSP, CHW: Vs TB TUE & @ MIN SUN (2.3% owned in ESPN) Fulmer is one of the few two start pitchers under 50% owned worth starting next week. Fulmer gets a great match up against TB at home on Tuesday, followed by a less attractive start against the Twins in Minnesota on Sunday. The Tampa game is a Fantasy Must-Start as the Rays hit .248 with a .324 wOBA in 2017 against righties on the road. But they lost a good amount of that lineup’s pop over the winter, and so far in 2018 they are batting .188 with only 20 runs scored, good for 14th in the AL. Minnesota, however, hit .261 with a .339 wOBA against right handers in the friendly confines of the Dome in Minnesota. So, again, the Detroit game is a must start, the Minnesota game is not quite as prime, so I’ll see how he does vs the Rays before deciding on Minnesota. In his last start Fulmer gave up 1 run in 5 innings in less than 70 pitches. However he came out for the 6th and promptly gave up two hits, both runners coming around to score while he was in the shower. He could cut the walks a bit as well, but he needs to get through that order for a 3rd time to be fantasy gold. Right now he is just silver. Jaime Garcia, LHSP, @ CLE SAT (4.9% owned in ESPN Leagues.): If you need a quality start next week, this might be the best bargain bin pick out there this week. I realize that Jaime Garcia is a Unicorn, much like Francisco Liriano was a Unicorn for many years until he found his niche. But, at least in the first half of a season, Garcia is a quality start waiting to happen. He calls the Rogers’ Center his home stadium and that is a homer haven. But he did a nice job muzzling the White Sox in his first 2018 start in Toronto, giving up 1 run on 4 hits with 2 walks and 7 k’s in 6 innings, only missing out on the W because the Jays could not hit Reynaldo Lopez either and Garcia was in the shower by the time they started scoring runs. This week he has a potential quality start AWAY from the Rogers Center. He gets to pitch against the Indians in Cleveland on Sunday. The Indians hit .256 with a .324 wOBA in 2017 against lefties at home, but only one of their starting nine is hitting over .200 so far in 2018. Get the Indians now before their bats wake up. The Cleveland start is a fantasy Must-Start. I’m not a huge Garcia fan but this week has me looking for him on the wire.

FROM THE ABYSS: Barely owned pitchers with good match ups for Week 2.

Marco Gonzales, LHSP, SEA: VS OAK SUN (4.9% owned in ESPN): Gonzales is a MUST-START on Saturday at home vs Oakland. In 2017, the A’s hit .202 away vs lefties with a .266 wOBA. That is right, barely Mendoza and .266 wOBA. This season they are averaging 4 runs per game with a .269 average mainly on the strength of Matt Chapman’s shoulders. As long as Gonzales can avoid Chapman’s wheelhouse he should enjoy success in Oakland. I’m grabbing him now for his late week start, or you can take your chances and wait until after Monday to pick him up, especially if your league mates don’t know how bad Oakland is against Lefties away. In his first start this season, Gonzales pitched a quality start with a win at KC, going 6.1 IP and giving up 6 hits and 3 runs with no walks and 2 K’s. His girlfriend Monica is a good investment strategist. She is his HS sweetheart and invested early to get in on the ground floor. They are married now. Tyson Ross, RHSP, SD: VS SF SAT (1.6% owned in ESPN) At 1.6% owned in ESPN we are reaching deep here. But, when life gives you lemons, start your pitchers against the San Francisco Giants, simple as that. Andrew McCutcheon’s sudden burst of hitting not withstanding. Remember Tyson Ross? I do. No, he is not an ace, but who on this list is? Ross may be the Jaimie Garcia of the NL this season, sporting low ERA’s and WHIPs without lighting up the counting stat scoreboard. But that should leave him hanging there for you to grab for his Saturday’s match-up vs the Giants at home. In 2017, the Giants hit .238 with a .297 wOBA against righties on the road. I don’t think Longoria and McCutcheon will change that too much. Start Ross against the Giants if there is not a lot to pick from on your wire.

So, Good Luck in Week 2, I think I gave you a few gems to pick from. Again remember that just because he is a two start pitcher does not mean you have to start him in both games. Pick the gems and run with them. When you drop one after a great game and the one you pick up has a late week gem, your league mates will be in awe.

Email me directly at joseph.iannone021@gmail.com or Tweet me at @joeiannone2

Otherwise I’ll be on the r/fantasybaseball Sub Reddit all day Sunday talking spot starts and anything else fantasy.

See you then.

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Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio Show: Join host Brian Roach, Jr, and John Gozzi live on Sunday April 8th, 2018 from 8-9:30pm EST for episode #113 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio. We are a live broadcast that will take callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. We will discuss the latest information in the world of fantasy baseball.

Our guest this week is Bryan Luhrs. Bryan is a writer with majorleaguefantasysports.com and is also the owner of Real Deal Dynasty Sports. Bryan’s articles publish every Thursday morning at 7am EST.

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