The Gambia stares into the abyss.

In a continent where the democratic deficit is endemic, the Gambian election on 1 December was a beacon of hope. The incumbent president, Yahya Jammeh, conceded defeat and called the leader of the opposition coalition, Adama Barrow, to congratulate him. The election felt like a new beginning.

But last week that expectation was replaced by uncertainty when Jammeh, a dictator widely known for his erratic behaviour, decided to reject the result. In a speech aired late on state TV last Friday, he cited “serious and unacceptable abnormalities” and demanded a rerun of the entire election. He banned all protests and ordered the army on to the streets. The euphoric jubilation of the Gambian people turned to dejection.

It was a coup d’état in all but name. Jammeh’s brazen power grab was denounced as unconstitutional by the opposition coalition and a ploy to derail the transition. The UN, The Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) and the African Union have all condemned Jammeh’s declaration as a threat to peace, and urged him to step down.

For the past 22 years Jammeh has ruled the Gambia, a former British colony, with an iron fist. He has turned the country into his personal fiefdom. The flagrant abuse of human rights – extrajudicial killings, disappearances, torture, forced exile, arbitrary arrest and imprisonment of journalists, political opponents and gay people – went on with impunity. He has shown that he cannot be trusted and Barrow had already expressed concern about his safety. In the run-up to the election, Jammeh had called the opposition “evil vermin” and threatened to “bury them 9ft deep”.

In the past three years Jammeh has withdrawn the Gambia from the Commonwealth, scrapped English as an official language, declared the country an Islamic republic and quit the International Criminal Court. Now it’s apparent that Jammeh will not relinquish power without a showdown. He once told a reporter he would rule for “a billion years if Allah willed”. And the prospect of a prosecution for his repressive rule makes his resignation highly unlikely. But Gambians have no desire to return to Jammeh’s dictatorial rule. They voted for change and now want to take the country on a new path of peace, tolerance and democracy.

There aren’t even any judges to hear the petition Jammeh’s own ruling party has filed at the supreme court to challenge the election result. Any decision wouldn’t matter since Jammeh has annulled the result, but in any case he’d have to appoint judges to hear the petition as he sacked them all last year.

Gambians eschew violence and that’s the reason they put their faith in the ballot box. They have lost faith in their army for siding with the incumbent, yet they won’t allow Jammeh to hijack their democratically expressed will. If Jammeh rebuffs diplomatic efforts for a peaceful transfer of power, many Gambians would hope that Senegal – which entirely surrounds the Gambia’s land borders – will intervene militarily.

Senegal has been unequivocal in condemning Jammeh’s annulment of the result. The country has leverage over its neighbour: nearly all the Gambia’s imports come through Senegal, and earlier this year Senegal’s blockade over a border dispute almost collapsed the country’s economy. Furthermore, Senegal intervened in the Gambia in 1981 to quell a coup attempt.

Jammeh is yet to face up to the fact that he lost the election. He underestimated the yearning for change, particularly among young Gambians – the country’s average age is 20. They have borne the brunt of Jammeh’s economic mismanagement and political crackdowns. Many have already fled, making the perilous journey to Europe by boats; the Gambia provides 7% of migrants crossing the Mediterranean – a highly disproportionate number given its population of only 2 million.

Jammeh has already started his post-election crackdown. His military has taken over the electoral commission building and sent its chairman home in fear for his safety. Jammeh has accused the commission of being under foreign influence. A ludicrous accusation given that he appointed the members of the commission. He’s now pillorying them for refusing to succumb to his blackmail and threats. Jammeh’s stalling is a dangerous game which risks plunging the country into a civil war. He has previously threatened the majority Mandinka tribe, from which Barrow hails, with expulsion and ethnic cleansing.

In spite of his rhetoric Jammeh is very much concerned about his image in the west – particularly the US where he has assets and his family frequently visit. He will be mindful of threats of sanctions and asset freezing. And Ecowas is leading the local mediation efforts. It has dispatched four West African leaders to Banjul to persuade Jammeh to reconsider his decision and hand over power immediately. We are hoping that he will heed the diplomatic overtures and spare us an avoidable quagmire.