UPDATE, 9:10 a.m. Monday: Mike McCarthy will be the new head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, The Dallas Morning News has confirmed. This story has been updated from its original version to reflect the hire.

Leave it to the Dallas Cowboys to conduct a coaching search while their current head coach is still under contract.

While Jason Garrett’s status was still up in the air (a matter that was resolved Sunday when it was announced his contract would not be renewed), the Cowboys began interviewing two candidates with a wealth of head coaching experience: Mike McCarthy and Marvin Lewis, who both spent 10-plus years at their previous jobs.

It would have been surprising if the Cowboys ended up hiring Lewis as head coach, in particular, as he is one of the few modern coaches to have a worse playoff résumé than Garrett. Lewis has yet to win a playoff game in seven appearances. Having said that, Lewis would have made sense as a potential defensive coordinator if Dallas had hired a head coach who has limited NFL experience. Lewis made his bones in the NFL on the defensive side of the ball, as he was the defensive coordinator for the legendary 2001 Baltimore Ravens defense.

McCarthy, whose interview with the team went so well that it was reportedly extended a day, has a proven track record in the postseason, including a victory at Super Bowl XLV, which made him a much more palpable candidate for Cowboys head coach. Having said that, McCarthy’s résumé isn’t just filled with sunshine and gumdrops, as there are numerous negatives to go with considerable positives.

With that in mind, let’s dive into the pros and cons of McCarthy becoming Cowboys head coach:

Pros

As stated above, one of the biggest selling points toward making McCarthy the Cowboys head coach is his experience and résumé of postseason success.

With a 125-77-2 record (.618 winning percentage) in the regular season, McCarthy led the Packers to the playoffs in nine of his 13 seasons as head coach, winning at least one playoff game in six of those nine seasons — for comparison’s sake, the Cowboys have made the playoffs three times in the last decade, winning just two playoff games in the process.

While many will discount McCarthy’s postseason success on account of the fact that he had Aaron Rodgers as QB, it ignores how integral McCarthy was in Rodgers’ development in the NFL.

McCarthy is a harbinger on the fundamentals of QB play, particularly in regards to footwork. McCarthy’s QB school was instrumental in Rodgers’ development. Every year around March, McCarthy invites his QBs back to the facility for a two-week camp where he reviews every play from the previous year with his QBs while honing in on the finer details, including details as small as arm angle, head positioning and obviously footwork, that enable effective play from the QB position. No detail is too small as McCarthy will even spend time fixing how a QB takes a snap from under center.

Rodgers described it as “breaking that thing (QB play) down to a science, and it really gives you a good feel for what you need to work on.”

McCarthy has helped a few legendary signal-callers with his QB school, including Rich Gannon (when McCarthy was QB coach in Kansas City), Brett Favre and the aforementioned Rodgers, so there’s no question as to whether Dak Prescott would benefit from it as well.

Dak got lazy with his footwork here and it resulted in an inaccurate throw. #Cowboys pic.twitter.com/KOdrHBS8hT — John Owning (@JohnOwning) November 29, 2019

While he made considerable strides in terms of his on-field performance in 2019, Prescott still fell back into some bad footwork habits, at times, that hurt his ability to throw accurately (above clip). Prescott lacks the arm talent to get away with sloppy/lazy footwork and remain effective. McCarthy is the type of coach who will develop a detailed plan toward improving Prescott’s footwork and throwing mechanics, which would be widely beneficial for Prescott and would give him the tools to build off his career year in 2019.

Prescott is in the midst of a critical junction in his development as an NFL QB. Hiring a detail-oriented QB expert at head coach makes a lot of sense, and it could go a long way toward maximizing Prescott’s skill set in the future.

This past season, Jason Garrett caught the ire of a vocal segment of the Cowboys fanbase when he revealed that he doesn’t use win probability stats to help inform his in-game decisions, which is why McCarthy’s newfound love for analytics would be a fantastic addition to Dallas’ decision-making process.

McCarthy’s intrigue with football analytics doesn’t stop with in-game decision-making, however, as he’d like to create a “14-person Football Technology Department, including a six-person video unit and an eight-person analytics team” with any team that hires him. While Dallas’ current analytics department is shrouded in secrecy, McCarthy’s plan would certainly require Jones and the rest of the front office to really commit to analytics and data-based decision making, which should be celebrated in a league where the best team, the Baltimore Ravens, is at the forefront NFL analytics movement.

The NFL is a copy-cat league and the Ravens’ considerable success this year should give Dallas more confidence in a more analytical approach.

Cons

While McCarthy’s plan to incorporate analytics is intriguing, there are questions as to whether a tiger can really change its stripes. During his final years in Green Bay, McCarthy was often critiqued for being too stubborn and conservative — two ideologies that are on the polar opposite side of the spectrum from the cooperative and aggressive mindset that is nurtured by data-based decision-making.

Can we be sure that McCarthy has truly changed his stripes? Or will he revert back to his old ways in the heat of the moment? While you like to take a candidate for his word, it’s justifiable to be skeptical of McCarthy.

Here's a sample of how many slant-flat passes Mike McCarthy has called in 2018.



This doesn't include similar concepts like:

X slant-RB flats

bubble-flats

flat/out/bubble screens

slant-flats on the backside of other concepts pic.twitter.com/9NctU6Q7lU — Justis Mosqueda (@JuMosq) October 9, 2018

Moreover, while Green Bay’s offense and scheme were cutting edge during the early portions of McCarthy’s tenure, his offense slowly devolved into one of the most conservative and unimaginative units in the league, as it was inundated with slant-flat route combinations ad nauseam. Even by his own admission, the Packers got away from frequently utilizing pre-snap motion, shifts and multiple personnel groups.

McCarthy has stated on numerous occasions that he’s going to be more creative with his schemes on offense with his new team to the point where he has a “LESS VOLUME, MORE CREATIVITY” sign on his desk. He spent his time off studying, in detail, every top-10 NFL offense from last year, which has caused him to make prudent changes to his offense, with promises of RPOs, pre-snap motion, up-tempo and stressed out opposing defense wherever he is hired.

Nevertheless, it’s OK to be skeptical of that, too. It’s easy to market one’s self to NFL teams as an analytic-minded head coach who will create an innovative offense built on creativity, but it’s entirely different to actually follow through and stay committed through all the trials and tribulations that happen during an NFL season. Cowboys fans already have had to deal with the promise of offensive innovation before it was quickly torn up after the slightest deviation from the original plan (like when Tyron Smith is injured).

The most innovative offenses maintain their creativity even when things don’t go according to plan. Take the Kansas City Chiefs as an example. When backup QB Matt Moore was forced to start two games against would-be playoff teams (Packers and Vikings) who have top-15 defenses in terms of DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) in replace of an injured Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City didn’t revert to a conservative, rushing-based game plan. Instead, they stayed aggressive and used their creativity to scheme up production for their backup QB. In Moore’s two starts, Kansas City passed the ball 79 times while only rushing 38 times, meaning they still attacked through the air on 67.5% of snaps despite playing with a backup QB.

The result?

A 1-1 record that proved to be crucial for the Chiefs getting a bye to start the playoffs, as they won the No. 2 seed after a Patriots Week 17 loss to the Dolphins. If the Chiefs had lost both of Moore’s starts, as most backup QBs would against the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings this year, they would have been forced to face the Tennessee Titans in the wild card round.

Will McCarthy remain creative even when faced with suboptimal conditions? That remains to be seen, and it’s a big reason why many are justifiably suspicious of the new coach in Dallas.

Final thoughts

Ultimately, the Cowboys could have done much worse than McCarthy in their search for a new head coach. His experience, both generally as a head coach and in terms of playoff success, and ability to aid in the development of the franchise’s No. 1 asset — Dak Prescott — are incredibly intriguing and great selling points.

While McCarthy’s track record of success is enticing, it’s his lack of a track record in accordance to his other biggest selling points — the use of data-based decision-making (analytics) and an innovative offense — that invites skepticism.

Many argued (including me) that Dallas would have been wise to hire a young offensive-minded head coach with a track record of ingenuity, such as Lincoln Riley (who was my No. 1 choice) in an effort to optimize Prescott and the Cowboys offense. Just as many have argued that hiring a head coach with a plethora of NFL head coaching experience should be the No. 1 priority.

McCarthy could end up being the ideal middle ground for both parties, as he not only has the head coaching experience but also has a track record of developing QBs and has promised to be more creative and innovative in the future.

Even though McCarthy might not have been the Cowboys fanbase’s favorite head coach candidate, he was an exceedingly realistic option who could certainly provide an upgrade over Garrett.

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