As a marketing guy I know fear is a powerful tool to influence people. With that said, say what you will about the Republicans they are masters at both staying on messaging and playing off of fear. Fear that if Obama is elected the terrorist are going to come kill you. Fear that if health care reform is passed the government will let your mother or grandfather die. The list could go on and on.

Mark my words, the Republicans are going to adopt the message used by Tony Perkins (Family Research Council) last night on Larry King! The fear if DADT is repealed somebody you love and care about will be drafted and sent off to fight in Iraq or Afghanistan.

If you read the transcript form the show, and listened to the debate on a few other shows (like Hardball) it would seem those on the right think there are so many people (I heard the number of 10% on Hardball) that would not either enlist or reenlist if "gays" serve, therefor we'll need to institute a draft.

In a twisted sort of way, it is kind of a brilliant tactic. First they don't have to argue that a gay person can't fight and serve their nation just like a straight person, cause we already have many examples they can. Or put more bluntly they don't even have to say they flat out hate the entire LGBT community and would like to outlaw their activities. Cause in '10 that would create an "Epic Fall" with a vast, vast majority of the population.

But most importantly it plays to core fears with a national security angle thrown in for good measure. Or they don't "hate" gay people, this is just about national security and your safety.

Now I would think how Obama and our elected leaders push back should be clear.

That the same things were said about the integration of African Americans and women into our military. That the same arguments were most likely made by the far right in Canada, EU nations, Israel, and Australia and the "world didn't end" when gays were allowed to openly serve. That is there are already members of the LGBT community serving in all branches of our military and it seems to be functionality pretty darn well. And finally our troops also serve with Canadian, NATO/EU, and Australia troops where their policies on this topic are the exact opposite of ours and I've never heard a single report of a problem.

But alas, I don't think we're even going to see this talking point coming, getting blind-sided yet again, much less have the ability to push back on it in an effective manner.

Therefore like the "Death Panels" and many other examples we could all list it is going to take a "hold" with the public as something that is just true and the next thing you know folks like Nelson, Bayh, Landrieu, Lieberman (OK, bad example), et al will jump to the Republicans on this issue.

At this point the repeal of DADT will either (1) fail or (2) get studied for the next few years with nothing ever happening.

Again, mark my words!

Update: It appears Tony Perkins is citing a Military Times email survey (which they appear to conduct each year) of their subscribers. A total and complete take down of the entire methodology of said survey is here and worth a read.