The SNP conference in Glasgow left no doubt that the anti-UK side is out-thinking the pro-UK side

If a new referendum on Scottish independence was called tomorrow, the campaign to break up Britain would win. Of this I am in no doubt, even though the polls and the present political orthodoxy suggest otherwise.

Received wisdom among political observers is that key arguments on trade, the economy and the constitution are stacked against Nicola Sturgeon, making a new referendum unlikely.

This entirely misses the point.

Conventional political arguments do not win referendums. We know this from the AV vote in 2011, the indyref vote in 2014 and the Brexit vote in June. What counts in a referendum is a successful appeal to people’s gut instinct.

Michael Gove was right about experts, galling as that may be. When voters get to the polling booth