THE Russian reconnaissance aircraft shot down by Syria forces responding to an Israeli air strike, killing all 15 people aboard, was the result of “a chain of tragic accidental circumstances.”

President Vladimir Putin said the downing of the Il-20 highlighted the dangers posed by the conflicting interests of various powers in the crowded skies over Syria and threatened the close security ties between Russia and Israel. He also warned of an as-yet unspecified - but significant - response.

In an effort to maintain their relationship, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly called Putin to express sorrow over the death of the plane’s crew, blamed the plane’s loss squarely on Syria and offered to send Israel’s air force chief to Moscow to share information about the incident.

CLAIM AND COUNTER-CLAIM

The Russian military said the plane was hit 35 kilometres offshore yesterday as it was returning to a Russian air base in Syria. The incident triggered testy exchanges of blame between Israel and Russia.

The Israeli military said its fighter jets were targeting a Syrian military facility involved in providing weapons for Iran’s proxy Hezbollah militia, noting that it warned Russia of the coming raid in line with de-confliction agreements. It said the Syrian army launched the missiles that hit the plane when the Israeli jets were already inside Israeli airspace.

An initial inquiry of the incident suggests:

1. Extensive and inaccurate Syrian anti-aircraft (Surface to Air missile) fire caused the Russian plane to be hit and downed. — Israel Defense Forces (@IDFSpokesperson) September 18, 2018

But the Russian Defense Ministry said the Israeli warning came less than a minute before the strike, leaving the Russian aircraft in the line of fire. It pointedly accused the Israeli military of deliberately using the Russian plane as a cover to dodge the Syrian defences and threatened to retaliate.

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“The Israeli pilots were using the Russian aircraft as a shield and pushed it into the line of fire of the Syrian air defence,” said Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu called his Israeli counterpart, Avigdor Lieberman, to declare that “the Israeli side bears full responsibility” for the plane’s downing and to warn that Russia “reserves the right to retaliate.”

2. When the Syrian Army launched the missiles that hit the Russian plane, IAF jets were already within Israeli airspace.

3. During the strike against the target in Latakia, the Russian plane that was then hit was not within the area of the operation. — Israel Defense Forces (@IDFSpokesperson) September 18, 2018

But Putin took a more cautious tone, describing the incident as “a chain of tragic accidental circumstances.”

Putin told Netanyahu that the Israeli raid violated Syria’s sovereignty and breached the Russian-Israeli conflict de-escalation agreement. He urged the Israeli side “not to allow such situations to happen again,” according to the Kremlin. At the same time, he said Russia will respond by “taking additional steps to protect our servicemen and assets in Syria.”

“It will be the steps that everyone will notice,” he said without elaboration.

CHAIN OF EVENTS

According to Russian media, the Il-20M reconnaissance aircraft ‘went off the radar’ as a strike by Israeli aircraft was underway on the Syrian northern coastal city of Latakia.

Dubbed ‘Coot’ by NATO, the aircraft is a four-engined turboprop design from the late 1960s. Its appearance and role is similar to that of the PC-3 Orion surveillance aircraft in service with the Royal Australian Air Force.

#RusMoD #Shoigu: Russian #Il20 plane in that moment was coming to landing at #Hmeymim air base in operation zone of Israeli jets as it was shot down by #Syrian #AirDefence forces pic.twitter.com/GJkeuSsspw — Минобороны России (@mod_russia) September 18, 2018

At the time of the incident, the Il-20 was likely monitoring NATO warships operating in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The Il-20M has a maximum speed of 600km/h. While it carries a significant array of radars and sensors, it does not have any self-defence systems.

It would not have been able to attempt to jam, deflect or evade a fast-moving missile.

The Russian S-200 missile, known as the SA-5 ‘Gammon’ to NATO, is a very long range, high altitude, surface-to-air system.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the missile that hit the Russian aircraft came from a brigade based in Baniyas, a town over 40 kilometres south of Latakia. Russia has military and naval bases in Syria’s coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus.

#RusMoD #Shoigu: Russian #Il20 plane was on intelligence gathering mission to locate terrorists’ drone workshops and dumps in Idlib de-escalation zone — Минобороны России (@mod_russia) September 18, 2018

In a rare move, Israel confirmed the attack on the city had been carried out by its forces.

A spokesperson told Israeli media that the raid “targeted advanced weapons systems and infrastructure belonging to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.”

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The Jerusalem Post reports: “According to the preliminary investigation launched by the Israeli Air Force, the Russian Ilyushin military plane was not within the area of operation of Israeli jets, and when it was struck all Israeli jets which took part in the operation had already returned to Israeli territory.”

FRIENDLY FIRE

Incorrect identification of targets is not new — despite the provision of ‘IFF’ (Identification Friend or Foe) systems.

In 2014, a Russian missile system shot down Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine. One of the theories about this incident is the Boeing 777 was mistaken for a Ukrainian air force AN-26 transport.

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In 1988, the cruiser USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian Air Airbus A300 passenger jet. It’s Aegis combat system had mistakenly identified the approaching aircraft to be an Iranian air force F-14 Tomcat fighter jet.

Before the latest incident, Russia had lost at least seven warplanes and seven combat helicopters in Syria and also had seen dozens of troops killed in ground combat.

#Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet tug "Nikolay Muru" is now involved in the Search and Rescue operation to find wreckage of #Russia|n Air Force (#RuAF) Il-20M ELINT airplane which was shot-down last night over E. #MediterraneanSea. pic.twitter.com/HJFcUpdO2b — Babak Taghvaee (@BabakTaghvaee) September 18, 2018

The downing of a Russian fighter by a Turkish jet in November 2015 put Moscow and Ankara on the verge of military confrontation, but they later negotiated a series of de-escalation agreements for Syria together with Iran.

“The implementation of de-escalation across Syria a year ago introduced a new reality to Syria, in which foreign states are now actively competing to assert their own influence over overlapping territorial space,” said Charles Lister, a Syria expert with the Washington-based Middle East Institute. “Though appropriate measures have been put in place to manage this, the risk of state-on-state conflagrations like we saw overnight has never been higher. With a meaningful political settlement in Syria an increasingly far-fetched objective, this could well be the new reality we live with for years to come.”

FALLOUT

Netanyahu, who has maintained warm personal ties with Putin and frequently travelled to Russia for Syria-focused talks, noted the need for Russia and Israel to continue co-ordinating their action in Syria. At the same time, he emphasised Israel would not tolerate the Iranian military presence in Syria.

Israel has refrained from taking sides in the Syrian civil war, but it has carried out scores of air strikes against arch-enemy Iran and its Shiite proxy Hezbollah.

СКР возбудил уголовное дело после крушения Ил-20 у берегов Сирии: https://t.co/vHMdKqYF1a pic.twitter.com/RwRAE6Pr65 — Телеканал "Звезда" (@zvezdanews) September 18, 2018

Israel has acknowledged attacking Iranian targets some 200 times, and Israel and Russia have maintained a hotline to prevent clashes between their forces in Syria. Israeli military officials have previously praised its effectiveness.

“Until now, Russia’s armed forces have granted Israeli jets the freedom to strike targets in Syria at will, on the condition that a sufficiently early warning is provided to Russia,” Lister said. “The glue binding this gentlemen’s agreement — the Putin-Netanyahu personal relationship — will likely tide this issue over for the time being.”

POWER PLAY

Moscow has played a delicate diplomatic game of maintaining friendly relations with both Israel and Iran. In July, Moscow said that it struck a deal with Tehran to keep its fighters 85 kilometres from the Golan Heights to accommodate Israeli security concerns.

In response to Israeli worries, Russia also has shelved plans to arm Syria with sophisticated air defence assets, such as the long-range S-300 missile systems that could pose a significant threat to Israeli aircraft.

The downing of the plane could change that.

One of the building in #Latakia industrial area destroyed last night by Israeli air strikes.

Thanks to @planetlabs pic.twitter.com/D6i19nxPBI — Aldin 🇧🇦 (@aldin_ww) September 18, 2018

Some Russian politicians and retired military officers have called for a forceful response, saying Russia should provide Syria with the S-300 air defence systems and other sophisticated weapons to prevent any further strikes. Shoigu, the defence minister, warned his Israeli counterpart that “we won’t leave such action without response.”

Russia’s dramatic entry into the Syrian civil war in September 2015 to support President Bashar Assad after a year of air strikes by the US and its allies against the Islamic State group increased the possibility of confrontations.

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The US also expressed sorrow over the Russian deaths, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo saying it was a reminder of the need to find “permanent, peaceful, and political resolutions to the many overlapping conflicts in the region and the danger of tragic miscalculation in Syria’s crowded theatre of operations.”

President Donald Trump, appearing at a White House news conference with Poland’s president, called it a “very sad thing” and said it was “not a good situation.”

But Trump also said that the United States has done a “tremendous job” battling the Islamic State group in Syria. He went on to suggest that the nation’s mission there was “very close to being finished.”