With that in mind, you might not want to make a wager just yet. Esparza's odds for latecomers like China and Europe (100 to 1 and 300 to 1) are plausible, but he gives the crew at Mars One better odds than NASA (15 to 1) despite serious concerns about both its safety and plans to fund the trip through a reality TV show. Although there is a case to be made for private explorers getting to Mars ahead of government agencies, we wouldn't rule out countries with the political and scientific incentives to pursue a manned Martian expedition.