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Quite a busy weekend for polling, and we still have two elections ahead of us on Friday. Over the past three days we had three European election polls from three different companies, the results are shown above. As you can see in a broad sense they are quite similar, generally within 2% of each other (apart from Behaviours and Attitudes giving Sinn Fein a lower figure) but when it comes to specifics and seat-winners, there are plenty of important differences, differences which show the importance of context and trends when analysing opinion polls.

The full results (Millward Brown is compared to the last Millward Brown European poll):

Millward Brown: FG 25 up 3, Lab 7 no change, FF 21.3 down 5, SF 19.3 up 2, Ind 17.3 down 4, GP 4.7 no change, PBPA 2 no change, SP 2.3 no change, Oth 0.7 no change

Behaviours and Attitudes (marked on the graph): FG 26.3, Lab 5.7, FF 22, SF 15.7, Ind 17.7, PBPA 3.3, SP 3, Oth 1.3

Ipsos MRBI: FG 25.7, Lab 7.7, FF 21.7, SF 19, Ind 14, GP 6.7, PBPA 2.3, SP 2, Oth 0.7

The first thing to always remember is the margin of error. In each of these polls, there was a sample size of about 500 for each constituency, giving a margin of error of about 4.5% in each. Really the figures should be reported between the high and low end of this error, some newspapers don’t even report the margin of error at all. Instead, they report polls as if they are an accurate representation of current voter sentiment. It is true that polls are usually within about 2% on average of final election results, but reporting like this ignores the variance within a single poll.

The other common error the media make when discussing polls is to compare polls from different companies as if they are equivalent. Each company uses different methods to obtain it’s results and while most, as mentioned, are generally quite accurate, this does not mean that, for example, a candidate who gets 5% in a poll from one company and 10% in a poll from another later that week, has jumped 5% in popular support in a week. It is far more relevant to see where that candidate is in a later poll by the same company and in the context of many polls over time, given the margin of error, this gives us a much better idea of how their support has changed in that time, if at all.

This leads us on to this weekend’s polls. Millward Brown are the only company so far to release more than one poll and the change between the two is illustrative. For example, in Midlands North West, the first poll gave Fianna Fail’s Thomas Byrne 16% and his running mate Pat the Cope Gallagher only 9%, perhaps a surprising figure given that Gallagher is a sitting MEP and Byrne a senator who lost his seat at the last election. The next poll from the company gave us a better idea of the reality, Byrne went down to 9 while Gallagher went up one to 10. While this does not give us a definitive answer, we know to have less faith in the 16% figure for Byrne and more faith in the 9-10% figure for Gallagher.

But we really see the importance of context when we look at results from different polling companies. Given that they all have different methodologies but still get roughly within 2% of the final results, we can be fairly confident that the various results will give us an approximation of the real figure and if one company is very different from the others, we should have less confidence in that figure.

Looking at the Byrne example above, seeing as he got 16% in one poll and 9% in the next, we can’t be sure which poll is anomalous or if the truth lies somewhere in between. Taking all the polls together however, Byrne generally gets around 8-9%, so based on this, we can consider the 16% figure less reliable and the 9% one moreso.

Grace O’Sullivan’s numbers in Ireland South are another example. The latest poll from Ipsos MRBI for the Irish Times has her at 7%, her highest yet. The Irish Times talks about this as if it is her definite figure, putting her in with a chance of a seat, though a long one. This ignores the fact that in only one other poll was she above 5%. Looking at the previously most recent poll released the day before where she’s on 3%, some commentators talk as if she has gained 4% in a single day. This is obviously unlikely, but taking all the polls in context, there does seem to be an upward trend in her support, though 7% is probably a high estimation.

Taking polls out of context can also lead us to attribute false cause to certain events. In The Red C poll of the 2nd of May, Phil Prendergast recieved 9% in Ireland South, 5% more than in the previous poll by Millward Brown, putting her in contention for a seat, while in the same poll Sinn Fein generally received less support than in the Millward Brown poll. This poll was released after Prendergast had publicly criticised Labour leader Eamon Gilmore and Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams had been arrested for questioning regarding the 1970s disappearance of Jean McConville. It would be easy to assume that these events were the direct cause of the changed poll figures. However, taking the poll in the context of further polls, we see their support largely returned to where it was and the variance was most likely the poll rather than the events.

Ireland South

This constituency seems to be the least variable, with nearly every poll giving the seats to Crowley, Ni Riada, Kelly and Clune. The variables in the this set of polls are whether or not Harris or even Prendergast can get enough first preferences to go ahead of Clune. If Harris does it, he would likely win the seat off Clune’s transfers but Prendergast would likely still be pipped due to Fine Gael transfers. Given previous polls though, Clune seems best placed to get the final seat.

As mentioned earlier, O’Sullivan seems to be in an upward trend, which are traditionally difficult to predict a final result for. In the latest poll from Ipsos MRBi, she transfers well from Phil Prendergast so there is the small possibility of her getting more first preferences than Clune and getting elected off of Prendergast’s transfers, though this is unlikely at best.

Amongst the others, Hartley stays rooted to the 2-3% mark while O’Flynn hits his lowest rating yet of 2%. The other candidates keep a steady rating of 2% or less.

Midlands North West

This constituency is quite variable. McGuinness seems to be consolidating, despite the low Millward Brown figure, the other two polls still put her top of the pack and with transfers from running mate Higgens, she seems to have a safe seat.

Matt Carthy generally hovers around the 15% mark, but variations in the Flanagan and Gallagher figure alter his potential seat from safe to vulnerable, he will likely get a strong first preference vote but could be unlucky due to lack of transfers. The latest poll from Ipsos MRBI puts Gallagher fourth and seemingly safe, but the other two polls have him relying on transfers from his running mate to be in with an outside chance. Luke Flanagan and Marian Harkin also vary quite a bit. Flanagan is generally safe but the latest poll puts him in joint fourth and a more precarious position while Harkin will be battling it out with Gallagher for fourth spot, most polls have her ahead but the latest has her behind. We’ll have to see if that is a trend or not.

Lorraine Higgens gets 8% on the latest poll but stays around 5% in the other polls, her latest figure could be a result of Labour’s attempt to court votes from Luke Flanagan or could merely be anomalous. Others remain stagnant.

Dublin

For every boost Hayes gets here, Lynn Boylan seems to get a boost aswell to stay ahead of him. They both have quite variable results, around 8 points each between high and low, but they both seem likely to finish first and second and be elected. Their latest figures of 22 and 23 are quite close to the expected quota of 25%, but both those figures are on the higher end of the polling scale. Despite this, the Irish Times reported both these figures as a likely end result, outside the context of the other polls.

Taking all the polls together, we are perhaps beginning to see a trend in terms of the third seat. Mary Fitzpatrick seems to be holding the advantage in first preference votes, hovering around 11 or 12% while her contenders, Emer Costello and Eamon Ryan seem to be consolidating around 10% or lower, while the 19% figure recieved by Nessa Childers in the first poll of the campaign gets more and more anomalous as each poll is released. Without transfers, all three will likely finish behind Fitzpatrick. The strongest challenge may come from one of Paul Murphy or Brid Smith, who will transfer heavily to each other and may get enough to push past Fitzpatrick before the final count.

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