Chris Berman has taken his Swami Sez NFL picks segment, seen on SportsCenter, to ESPN Chalk. Each week during the NFL regular season, he'll give his favorite picks against the spread here with a little further analysis.

Season record: 46-27 ATS (last week: 0-4-1)

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Coming off of a Thursday game, Seattle has a clear path to a first-round bye in the NFC, which is what it wanted all along. I think the game against Green Bay threw us off a bit, but this is the time of year Seattle usually gets rolling. It has been a rough season for Arizona, and I don't see it getting better here. The Seahawks tighten up all the screws, as they would once again like to give up the fewest points in the NFL. They enter Week 16 trailing New England by two points for that title.

Score: Seattle 27, Arizona 16

New York Jets at New England Patriots

I can hear Bryce (and Tom) Petty saying to the Patriots, "Don't Do Me Like That." New England has given up the fewest points in the NFL this season. I know the Jets have played the Patriots close over the past few years, but I just don't see how they're going to score enough in this game. New England lost home-field advantage late last season; the Patriots won't make that mistake again.

Score: New England 29, New York Jets 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Team with a winning record (Tampa Bay) getting points from a team with a losing record (New Orleans)? This is a Swami rule -- I look for these. I thought Tampa Bay conducted itself well in Dallas, despite the turnovers, and had a chance to win that game late. I know New Orleans just put up 48 points on the road, but I think Tampa's defense does enough here to get the job done. If Tampa Bay is going to be in a position to win the NFC South in the final week, the Bucs need to win this game. I believe they do just enough to get by New Orleans.

Score: Tampa Bay 29, New Orleans 27

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders

After clinching its first playoff berth in 14 years, I think Oakland has its eyes on a higher prize than just a playoff appearance. The Raiders could still be the No. 1 seed in the AFC or win the AFC West, but only if they win out. The Colts have won big twice this month, but how good is their defense, really? The shootout I thought would happen with Philip Rivers last week might materialize here. I like the Oakland offense to get back on track.

Score: Oakland 30, Indianapolis 24

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

What a Christmas present this game could be. Denver is the defending Super Bowl champion, and the Broncos are going to come out with all they have. But the Chiefs are still alive for the AFC West crown and the AFC's No. 2 seed. They didn't finish the job last week, but I think they do it here. Andy Reid might unveil a secret weapon this weekend in Ed Podolak, who had 350 yards for the Chiefs on Christmas Day in 1971. Hey, maybe he's good for a touchdown this year as well.

Score: Kansas City 22, Denver 16