Iowa Poll: Hubbell leads in fluid Democratic primary race for governor

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Fred Hubbell holds an 11 percentage-point lead in a Democratic primary race that remains fluid about two weeks ahead of Election Day, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

Hubbell, a retired businessman, tops the pack of six Democrats, with 31 percent of likely primary voters saying they’d support him if the Democratic primary were held today. State Sen. Nate Boulton follows with 20 percent, and Cathy Glasson, a nurse and union leader, rounds out the top three at 13 percent.

Andy McGuire, a physician; John Norris, a former federal appointee; and Ross Wilburn, a former Iowa City mayor, fall well behind, earning single-digit support. Twenty-four percent of respondents say they are unsure of whom to support or would not say.

Despite Hubbell's 11-point lead, the June 5 primary race remains far from settled.

Just under a quarter of likely primary voters say they’ve already voted or have made up their minds, while 75 percent say they could be persuaded to support somebody different. And the possibility of a nominating convention lingers. No candidate has cleared the 35 percent threshold needed to clinch the nomination outright on primary Election Day.

The poll, conducted by Selzer and Co. of Des Moines, questioned 501 likely Democratic primary voters statewide May 13-15. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Quiz: Which gubernatorial candidate do you agree with most?

The poll included Iowans who say they will definitely vote or have already voted early in the Democratic primary.

Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor with the Cook Political Report who specializes in analyzing governor’s races, said she’s not surprised voters are still making up their minds because of the large field of candidates. And Hubbell’s outsize television presence likely is fueling his lead, she said.

"The interesting thing about this race is there has yet to be a negative ad," she said. "If somebody wants to displace Hubbell or try and keep Hubbell under 35 percent, they’ve got to start taking some shots at him."

Boulton, Norris and Glasson all took their first public swings at Hubbell during a televised debate last week, challenging his record as interim director of the Iowa Department of Economic Development and the donations he's made to state Rep. Peter Cownie, a Republican and family friend of the Hubbells.

The Democratic nominee will take on incumbent Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who does not face a primary challenger. A February Iowa Poll showed her with a 49 percent favorability rating and a 47 percent job-approval rating among likely 2018 voters.

Hubbell best suited to take on Reynolds?

Hubbell’s support spans most demographic groups. Compared to Boulton, he leads with women by 14 percentage points and with men by 8 points. Those 65 and over, who make up almost a third of the primary electorate, support him nearly 3 to 1.He also leads, at least slightly, across educational backgrounds, income groups and in all four congressional districts.

And by more than 2 to 1 over Boulton, his closest challenger, likely Democratic primary voters say they think Hubbell is best suited to take on Reynolds in November.

“That’s the most important thing, is they have to win the election,” said Mary Hanke, an independent voter who lives near Osage and plans to support Hubbell in June.

Another indication of broad support for Hubbell: While supporters of each of the six candidates most commonly name their own choice as having the best shot to win in November, Hubbell ranks second among each candidate’s supporters.

Hanke said she doesn’t know anything about the other candidates in the race, but a friend recommended she vote for Hubbell.

“I’ve just been told by somebody that he is probably the most likely one to be able to win at this point,” Hanke said. “He’s got money to back himself up. And all his policies that I’ve heard, I agree with them.”

Judy Holland, a 70-year-old retired university support staff worker from Coralville, said she hasn't seen mail or television ads for anybody but Hubbell. She plans to vote for him in the primary.

"I just know he’s good old Iowa name," she said. "I know (the Hubbells) are monied, but they seem level-headed and down to earth."

Despite skepticism that a wealthy Des Moines businessman could win over rural voters, Hubbell carries that demographic as well.

Thirty-seven percent of poll respondents who say they live in rural Iowa support Hubbell, compared with 16 percent for Boulton.

Each candidate in the race has taken pains to reach out to voters in more rural parts of the state, where the Democratic Party has struggled to gain traction in recent years.

Since 2010, the party has lost six of seven races for president, governor or U.S. senator. Across those six losses, the party won just 15 of Iowa’s 99 counties. And party leaders and Democratic candidates have said winning back rural voters is critical to success.

MORE ON THE CANDIDATES:

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Andy McGuire, Democratic candidate for Iowa governor: 'Health care is a right, not a privilege'

Democrat John Norris: I've built a career of service 'advocating for the little guy'

Wilburn running for governor to create opportunities for all Iowans

Boulton draws support from Bernie Sanders voters

J. Ann Selzer, who conducted the Iowa Poll, said Boulton appears to be drawing some of the supporters who in 2016 flocked to U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ progressive campaign for president, including younger voters, independents and those who cite no religious affiliation.

Twenty-four percent of voters younger than 45 say they support Boulton, compared with 22 percent saying they support Glasson and 16 percent who support Hubbell.

“(Boulton's) a young guy who brings a different kind of dimension and life to his politics,” said Chris Woods, a 32-year-old grocery store manager from West Des Moines who said he was a Sanders supporter in 2016. “He brings a vitality to the position, a different perspective, a connection with younger Iowans. While our population is aging and we’re dealing with people flocking from rural life to urban life, you also have to be able to figure out how to retain people in our state, and having a young voice in leadership would help.”

Boulton also draws more support than Hubbell from independent voters (26 percent to 21 percent) and from those who describe their religious beliefs as “none” (28 percent to 20 percent).

Selzer said voters who don’t identify with a religion are a growing demographic group in Iowa and played a role in helping hand Barack Obama a victory in 2012 over Mitt Romney, who led with Protestants and Catholics.

"When people were talking about Hispanics as a growing demographic group, this group has been growing faster," she said. "And they tend to be the most liberal."

Although Glasson has run a campaign that appears to more closely align with Sanders' agenda, Selzer said Boulton likely is benefiting from higher name recognition.

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Contested primary still a possibility

A nomination by convention remains a possibility as voters make their final decisions.

With just over two weeks until the primary, majorities of likely voters are able to offer a "favorable" or "unfavorable" impression for only Hubbell and Boulton. Fifty-two percent of likely voters say they don't know enough to offer such an assessment of Glasson, and for McGuire, Norris and Wilburn, it's more than 60 percent.

Deciding the nominee at a convention, however, would offer fresh hope.

“If it does go to a nominating convention, it’s a whole different ballgame,” said Duffy, the political analyst. “Somebody like Cathy Glasson, her stock rises in that event and Hubbell’s probably falls.”

That’s because the nomination would be decided at a convention of party activists — people who tend to be more involved and more progressive, Duffy said.

Glasson, who has focused on issues like universal health care and free community college, may see a bump in her numbers if that’s the case. And Norris, who has been active in Iowa politics for decades, could benefit from his organizational knowledge.

“You could write him off in a primary, but I wouldn’t write him off in a convention,” Duffy said.

More: Iowa Poll: Race is tight, unsettled in Democrats' 3rd Congressional District primary

About the Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted May 13-15 for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 501 Iowans ages 18 or older who say they will definitely vote or have already voted early in the Democratic primary this June.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,880 households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age and sex to reflect the general population based on recent census data.

Questions based on the subsample of 501 likely Democratic primary voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.