The club that finishes fifth in the Premier League may end up in the Champions League next season. Who will step up?

With Liverpool, Manchester City and Leicester City well clear at the top of the Premier League table, the battle for fourth was going to be a hotly contested affair. Now that City have been banned from Uefa competitions for the next two seasons – pending an appeal – the race has been flung wide open. Providing City’s appeal fails, the teams that finish fourth and fifth in the league will qualify for the Champions League next season. Every club from Chelsea in fourth down to Everton in ninth has a realistic change of making it into the top five. Here we rank the contenders.

Chelsea

Chelsea are the current frontrunners, despite a dire run of just three wins in their last 11 matches. It says a lot about the other teams involved in the race for the Champions League places that Chelsea are fourth in the table even though they have picked up just 12 points in their last 11 games – four fewer than Watford in the same time period and they are 19th in the league.

Chelsea were beaten by Manchester United earlier this week and they still have to face Tottenham, Everton, Manchester City, Sheffield United, Liverpool and Wolves. Their difficult run-in continues this weekend, when former manager José Mourinho brings Spurs to Stamford Bridge with the hope of leapfrogging Chelsea in the table. Chelsea have only lost one of their last 33 home games against Tottenham but Frank Lampard has reasons to be concerned. His team’s form at the Bridge has been poor this season. Chelsea have scored just 16 goals in their 13 league games at Stamford Bridge. Norwich and West Ham, who are both in the relegation zone, have both scored more goals at home.

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Chelsea need to re-focus. The uncertainty about their goalkeepers is hardly helping. Willy Caballero has started their last two matches, with Kepa Arrizabalaga – still the most expensive keeper in history – dropping to the bench. They also need to improve at the other end of the pitch. Tammy Abraham has scored just once in 2020 but, if he finds his form and Chelsea use all their experience, they should hold on to a place in the Champions League. Prediction: fourth

Tottenham

Three wins in a row have thrust Tottenham back into the race to finish fourth. Since José Mourinho took over in November, only Liverpool (42) and Manchester City (29) have won more points in the league than Spurs (26). Signing Steven Bergwijn has given them a boost, but injuries to Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min have hurt their chances massively.

Scoring goals is going to be their problem. Kane and Son have scored 20 of their 43 goals in the league this season. Dele Alli has scored just one goal in his last seven league games and Lucas Moura, who is likely to partner Bergwijn in attack, has only scored four league goals all season.

Spurs have a tough run-in, with games against Chelsea, Wolves, Manchester United, Sheffield United and Everton in the next seven weeks – and that is on top of their fixtures in the FA Cup and Champions League. They face an uphill task to stay in the top five. Prediction: sixth

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Sheffield United

Sheffield United, the pre-season favourites to go down, have exceeded expectations and then some this season. Chris Wilder has done a magnificent job in not only overseeing their promotion, but in taking them to sixth in the table in mid-February. They have a very real shot at European football next season.

Sheffield United have only lost seven games so far this season (fewer than Chelsea or Tottenham) and five of those defeats have come at the hands of the top three. Their defensive record has been extremely impressive. Only Liverpool (15) have conceded fewer goals than Sheffield United (24), and only Alisson (10) has kept more clean sheets than Dean Henderson (nine) in the league.

They face a crunch run of fixtures towards the end of April, when they play Wolves, Chelsea, Leicester and Everton in consecutive weeks. If they make it that far without too many injuries, Champions League football could be making its way to Bramall Lane next season. Prediction: fifth

Manchester United

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Despite the loss of Marcus Rashford to injury last month, Manchester United are soldiering on well and their 2-0 win at Chelsea earlier this week moved them to within three points of the Blues. Bruno Fernandes has looked impressive since he joined from Sporting and, if he can add goals to his game quickly, he will be a huge asset for the club in the run-in. Anthony Martial scored against Chelsea and Club Brugge this week, the first time he has scored in back-to-back matches since December. With Rashford out, United need him to keep up that form.

United’s downfall, however, is their inability to beat the teams they should be beating. Five of their 10 wins in the league have come against teams in the top five: Chelsea (twice) Leicester, Manchester City and Tottenham. If they could pick up more points against sides in the bottom half of the table, United would coast to a Champions League place. Prediction: seventh

Wolves

Wolves’ 4-0 win over Espanyol on Thursday night was their 43rd match of the season, which, at this stage of the season, is frankly ludicrous. The fact that they are still chasing a place in the Champions League – both through the Premier League and the Europa League – is a testament to Nuno Espírito Santo and his players.

Wolves have shown tremendous fight this season but their inability to kill teams off could prove problematic as the games keep coming thick and fast. They have only won eight matches in the league – fewer than any of the other teams in contention for the Champions League – and only three of those victories were by more than one goal. They have battled for almost every minute of every game and must tire at some point. Prediction: ninth

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Everton

Everton are level on points with Wolves and – unlike most of the other teams in contention – they do not have the distraction of playing in Europe or the FA Cup. They only have the Premier League to play for between now and May, so should be entirely focused on the task at hand.

Had the season started when Carlo Ancelotti took charge of his first game – their 1-0 win over Burnley on Boxing Day – Everton would be second in the table. They have picked up 17 points in eight matches under Ancelotti, with their only league defeat coming against Manchester City at the Etihad, where they battled back from 2-0 down and nearly equalised in the final minutes.

There are reasons to be optimistic, but Everton face a tough run-in. They still have to play eight of the nine other teams in the top half of the table (Manchester City being the exception), so Ancelotti has his work cut out for him. Prediction: eighth

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