City council has the opportunity to commit to new affordable housing in Winnipeg when members vote on a plan for a new suburb on Wednesday.

The suburb, known as Precinct E, is on the northwest edge of Winnipeg and may prevent low and middle-income families from accessing housing if developers have their way. As it stands, the suburb will deepen the city's infrastructure deficit and expand the city’s ecological footprint, too.

The only way the proposed suburb will offer a net benefit (and not just for developers, but for the city as a whole) is if Winnipeg uses the zoning powers it was granted last year to tie new development to the creation of affordable housing.

Developers tend to build new when faced with the choice to increase the density of existing neighbourhoods or clear new land on the city's edge.The economies of mass production and large-scale marketing offered by new developments are attractive to investors and a calculable risk for the financial institutions that fund them.

While there are easy profits to be made, there are also costs.

The price of a new s uburb in Winnipeg

New suburbs create the need for new roads, sewers, parks and schools, while stress is added to existing infrastructure. Environmental costs are to be expected with the development of a new neighbourhood as single vehicle commutes increase and the limited base of farmland is eroded.

All of this comes under the multibillion-dollar infrastructure deficit Winnipeg is already facing.

Meanwhile, the cost of a home in a single family development like the proposed Precinct E begins at $400,000. Those homes do not meet the needs of the tens of thousands of Winnipeg families that can't afford existing housing.

Recent data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation suggest that more than 10% of Winnipeg families in core housing can't meet their living needs because accommodations are too expensive, in poor condition or unsuitable for their family size. The private sector needs to do its share to address this issue.

On a positive note, the plan for Winnipeg's new suburb acknowledges some of the low points of the traditional suburban development model.

For example, Landmark, the firm behind the plan, is promising lakes and walking trails in a community that has single family homes, multifamily townhouses and high density apartments.

And, if the new suburb reaches a population of 5,400 (which is a possibility, according to the administrative report), its population density would be three times that of neighbouring areas in northwest Winnipeg.

However, there are reasons to doubt ecological elements of the plan would ever be implemented.

Genstar, the developer, plans to start the suburb by building single family lots on farmland located on the north side of the precinct, an area of land that is not attached to existing roads or infrastructure.

That goes against the administrative report, which says the project is "an opportunity to complete the contiguous development pattern" in the area.

And with no mandate to build affordable, multifamily housing, the high-density suburb promised by developers amounts to music of the future, playing only to distract critics from pegging Precinct E as ticky-tack sprawl across the prairie.

The proposed density is not based on present day market realities, and approval of the plan as it stands is akin to offering developers their dessert before the main course.

Winnipeggers simply can't afford new neighbourhoods along the city's edge, unless we can be certain that affordable density really is an integral part of the plan, or developers pay a share of the cost stress to infrastructure will cause.

The city’s own long-term plan, OurWinnipeg, states that new communities should include a mix of affordability, size and tenure. Winnipeggers could be paying for infrastructure that leapfrogs over undeveloped land for decades.

Last year, the City of Winnipeg requested the ability to increase development fees to pay for infrastructure from the province. The province turned down the request, leaving some councillors to claim their hands are tied and that they must approve development as it comes with no strings attached.

That claim ignores new powers the province gave the city in 2013 in an amendment to the city’s charter.

New legislation for the City of Winnipeg

An amendment to the city's charter introduced new legislation that authorizes 'inclusionary zoning,' which allows the city to require that new development include setting aside some of that land for affordable housing or putting money away for the development of affordable housing elsewhere in the city.

The city should make use of those powers and require that any new development in Precinct E include 10% social and 10% affordable housing. That way, Precinct E could go at least part of the way toward funding Mayor Brian Bowman's commitment to create at least 350 units of social housing over the next three years.

Inclusionary zoning by itself won't solve Winnipeg’s housing problems or eliminate our infrastructure deficit.

However, given the limits of city resources and the need for affordable housing, the city should not give up any tools at its disposal. If implementing inclusionary zoning slows suburban sprawl, at least it will allow the city to catch up on its infrastructure deficit before building on more land.

Josh Brandon is a housing researcher with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.