BERLIN — As Germany’s election campaign enters its final hours, Berlin’s political establishment has become unnerved by what looks like a last-minute surge by the far right. Will the “Nazis” — as the Alternative for Germany's (AfD) opponents call the party’s adherents — take third place? What will that mean for German democracy?

With four parties in a dead heat for third place, each polling in the 8-12 percent range, the race is too close to offer a serious answer.

What we do know is that Angela Merkel’s center-right bloc, comprising her Christian Democrats and the Bavarian Christian Social Union, will likely take first place by a wide margin. In recent weeks, they’ve scored between 36 and 38 percent in the polls. The Social Democrats, Merkel's current partners in a "grand coalition," are projected to finish second, somewhere in the low 20 percent range.

Putting aside German soul-searching about the rise of the AfD, the big question after results come in Sunday night will be what kind of coalition will emerge. Relying on the poll math, we’ve handicapped the possible permutations below in our coalition calculus, gauging the likelihood of each outcome. We did not include coalitions that party leaders have explicitly ruled out even if the votes are there, such as any combination involving the AfD.

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Grand Coalition

Pro — Most Germans are satisfied with their lives at the moment. Unemployment is low, wages are rising (albeit slowly), the economic outlook is stable. There are problems, of course, from shoddy infrastructure to the challenge of absorbing refugees, but overall, things are pretty good. So why change?

For the chancellor, often caricatured as a closet socialist, the grand coalition is the easiest path forward. Merkel is a creature of habit. She vacations in the same Tyrolean village every summer, for example, in the same hotel before absorbing her annual dose of Wagner at the Bayreuth festival. She prizes predictability. At the end of the day, the other coalition options would be too complicated and disruptive. The Social Democrats will play hard to get but ultimately agree. For a risk-averse chancellor of a country that prizes stability, the grand coalition is the obvious answer.

Contra — The grand coalition is slowly strangling the life out of German democracy by making the main political blocs indistinguishable. If the SPD wants to survive as a viable political force, it needs to go into opposition, where it can lead the charge against Merkel & Co. Remaining in the grand coalition means leaving the field to the likes of the AfD and will only further strengthen the political fringes. The only way to breathe new life into Germany’s stuffy political culture and avert future disaster is to end the grand coalition.

Likelihood: High

Black-yellow (or "tiger duck")

Pro – A center-right coalition (sometimes nicknamed after a toy duck that’s black and yellow — the party colors of the of CDU/CSU and the Free Democrats) has long been the preferred option for Merkel’s Christian Democrats. The parties have a deep history of collaboration and share the most ideological overlap when it comes to key policy issues, even if the FDP has steered a course somewhat to the right of Merkel on Europe and refugees. This alliance is Germany’s best chance for pushing through further economic reforms. Though the economy has performed well in recent years, many economists warn that Germany is running on the fumes of the labor market overhaul introduced by Merkel’s predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, more than a decade ago. Bold moves could be necessary to ensure Europe’s biggest economy stays on track, and a center-right coalition may be the only hope for that outcome.

Contra – Merkel doesn’t have the appetite for the kind of tax cuts and other overhauls the FDP is demanding. The party’s resistance to eurozone integration will only complicate relations with France and other partners at a time when Berlin needs to show a willingness to compromise and pull Europe together. And while Merkel’s party likes to govern with the FDP, her own experience with the liberals has been mixed. Her coalition with the FDP from 2009-2013 was a rocky one, marked by frequent conflict. Christian Lindner, the FDP’s ambitious young leader, is too much of a showman for the chancellor’s liking. Even if there are enough votes for this coalition, it’s likely to only have a razor-thin majority, which could leave Merkel hostage to a handful of FDP renegades on close votes.

Likelihood: Moderate

Jamaica

Pro — This coalition (so named because the colors of the CDU/CSU, FDP and Greens match those of Jamaican flag) would break new political ground by combining traditional conservatism with liberal principals and an ecological worldview. An experiment, to be sure — but these modern times demand new approaches and courage to collaborate across the old ideological lines. At a time when nationalist tendencies are taking hold of other corners of the west, Germany could present a stark alternative with an outward-looking, liberal face.

Contra — The parties are simply too far apart on key issues, from refugees to the future of the EU to the environment, to make such a coalition work. As the moniker suggests, Jamaica is little more than a fantasy, ginned up by Berlin’s latte-sipping Bobo class, whose daily reality couldn’t be further removed from those of the common man or woman.

Likelihood: Low

Minority government

If the parties fail to agree on a coalition, Germany’s constitution allows for the formation of a minority government, which would attempt to secure majorities in parliament for legislation on an ad hoc basis.

Pro — It might be Merkel’s only choice, if the SPD refuses to continue a partnership in which its share of the vote has plummeted and other options don't pan out — because the votes aren't there, or the FDP drives too hard a bargain, for example.

Contra – A minority government would be unstable and likely short-lived. Germans like stability and this isn’t an outcome anyone is looking for. Merkel knows this and is more likely to push for new elections — and an opportunity to secure an absolute majority — than to put her fortunes at the mercy of a minority government.

Likelihood: Highly unlikely