What follows here will probably prove very, very wrong in spots. Starting pitching, by nature, is a fickle thing: Sometimes great pitchers get hurt or suddenly prove ineffective, sometimes guys emerge as aces seemingly overnight. And there’s enough parity in Major League Baseball in 2016 that it’s not unreasonable to expect some team ranked in the bottom 10 here will wind up with one of the Majors’ 10 best rotations in 2016, and vice versa.

Plus, it’s worth noting that plenty can and will change before opening day. Some solid starters lingering on the free-agent market, like Yovani Gallardo, will eventually find homes and improve the outlook of their new clubs’ rotations. A few guys teams are counting on will suffer significant injuries in spring training, and a couple of reclamation projects will turn heads in March and wind up important contributors by June.

The following is informed by recent stats and 2016 projections, but it is on the whole a subjective list. This is my best effort at ranking all 30 MLB clubs’ starting rotations from 1-30, as they stand on Monday, Jan. 25. I look forward to being shamed for my misses come September:

30. Atlanta Braves

That man in the photo above is Julio Teheran, and he’s notable because he’s basically the only legit Major League starter set for the 2016 Braves rotation. Atlanta is in rebuilding mode, and there’s some upside to the pitchers likely to follow Teheran. But unless guys like Matt Wisler and Williams Perez develop better and faster than expected, the last season in Turner Field will be a very long one.

29. Philadelphia Phillies

Like the Braves, the Phillies have collected some intriguing young arms during their rebuilding phase. But also like the Braves, the Phillies will need a whole lot to go right to have a halfway decent rotation in 2016. Young starters Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff look like the best of the bunch in Philadelphia, and Jeremy Hellickson will look to return to his excellent 2011-2012 form before he hits free agency following the 2017 season.

28. Milwaukee Brewers

There’s not a whole lot to be excited about in the Brewers’ rotation. Jimmy Nelson, a 26-year-old coming off his first full big-league season, is probably the de facto ace. Milwaukee owes Matt Garza at least $25 million through the end of the 2017 season, and Garza sported a 5.63 ERA in 2015.

27. Los Angeles Angels

This seems bad: The Angels have, in Mike Trout, a guy who might very well prove to be one of the sport’s all-time greats, at a cost that’s a total steal given his production. But they’ll run him out behind a starting rotation that appears totally meh: Garrett Richards, their best, is pretty good, and none of the four guys slated for behind him look likely to be horrible. But front to back, the Angels’ rotation just doesn’t stack up to those of other hopeful contenders.

26. Colorado Rockies

The Rockies’ rotation is probably better than you think it is: Jorge De La Rosa has actually been one of the most successful starters in the franchise’s history, in that he hasn’t been totally destroyed while pitching at mile-high altitude. And there’s promise in guys like Jon Gray and Jordan Lyles, and enough depth behind them to allow the Rockies to keep trying to find the right formula for success at Coors Field. It might not exist, but they’re working on it.

25. Minnesota Twins

The Twins enjoyed surprising success in 2015 thanks in part to depth in capable — if unspectacular — big-league pitchers, but none of the team’s cast of holdovers owns much potential for breakout success in 2016. For that, the Twins will have to wait on the development of impressive young arms like Jose Berrios and Kohl Stewart.

24. Baltimore Orioles

Wei-Yin Chen, the Orioles’ best starter in 2015, joined the Marlins in free agency this offseason and left the rotation situation in Baltimore looking fairly dire. At 25, righty Kevin Gausman still has time to make good on his prospect pedigree. Dylan Bundy is still only 22 and boasts world-class potential, but has missed the bulk of the last three seasons with arm injuries.

23. Cincinnati Reds

Even with Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake now long gone, the Reds’ rotation looks surprisingly solid for 2016. Cuban import Raisel Iglesias posted gaudy strikeout numbers in his first big-league season and could improve in his sophomore year. Behind him, the Reds have a nice combination of capable, high-floor Major League starters on the brinks of their primes, stud prospects like Robert Stephenson and Cody Reed, and Homer Bailey on the way back from Tommy John surgery.

22. Kansas City Royals

The Royals won the World Series with an unspectacular starting staff and will look to repeat in 2016. Yordano Ventura’s ERA jumped nearly a run from 2014 to 2015, but his peripheral numbers improved and he still throws otherworldly stuff. Behind Ventura, a group of sturdy veterans including Edinson Volquez and newly signed Ian Kennedy will look to get games into the hands of Kansas City’s incredible bullpen.

21. Detroit Tigers

The good news: Justin Verlander looked far better in 2015 than he did in 2014, and free-agent acquisition Jordan Zimmermann is a reliable and perhaps underrated front-of-the-rotation starter. The bad news: Whatever happens after that. But Anibal Sanchez, coming off the worst season of his career, was good every season from 2010-2014 and could bounce back to form, and lefty Daniel Norris, recovering from thyroid cancer, could yet prove an ace.

20. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays need their rotation to be good enough to keep their excellent offense in games, and it should do that. A full season of health from Marcus Stroman should go a long way toward replacing the production they lost from departed starters Mark Buerhle and David Price, and Aaron Sanchez — used primarily as a reliever in 2015 — offers tantalizing potential if he can rein in his control issues.

19. Oakland Athletics

The presence of Sonny Gray separates Oakland from the back of the back — most teams from here forward on the list boast a bona fide and somewhat reliable ace. Behind Gray, the A’s have a handful of guys in their mid-to-late 20s who outpitched their peripherals in 2015 and offseason acquisition Rich Hill, a 35-year-old lefty who spent part of 2015 in independent ball and part of it making four astonishingly dominant starts for the Red Sox.

18. Miami Marlins

If this list ranked every team by the abilities of its top two starters, the Marlins — with Jose Fernandez and Wei-Yin Chen — might land inside the Top 10. But there’s a steep drop-off after that pair in Miami, with no stud prospects on the immediate horizon.

17. Texas Rangers

The Rangers will open the season with a solid rotation fronted by Cole Hamels, but the potential for an excellent rotation whenever Yu Darvish returns from the Tommy John surgery he endured in March of 2015. Darvish was one of the game’s most dominant pitchers when healthy, and his return should have a huge impact on the Rangers’ postseason aspirations. Look out for former A’s starter A.J. Griffin, who missed all of 2014 and 2015 after his own Tommy John procedure, but made four rehab starts to finish 2015 before signing a minor league deal with the Rangers in December.

16. San Diego Padres

Tyson Ross, James Shields and Andrew Cashner make for a sneaky-good top trio of starters, but the Padres have little in the way of certainty after that. Brandon Maurer will look to build on a solid 2015 season in the Padres bullpen with a move into the rotation. One of Robbie Erlin, Colin Rea and Odrisamer Despaigne will likely open in the fifth spot.

15. New York Yankees

I entered this exercise expecting to put the Yankees near the bottom of the list, and ended it tempted to rank them in the Top 10. Truth is, it’s easy to envision them landing on either end of the spectrum: Their top four starters all come with great stuff and huge question marks. How they fare will depend on the health of Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda and the success of Luis Severino in his first full big-league season.

14. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays will fly up this list if and when Matt Moore finds the form he showed before the Tommy John surgery that cost him most of the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Until then, Chris Archer will be excellent, and Jake Odorizzi makes for a fine mid-rotation starter. The Rays should start the season with enough depth that they won’t need to force the promotion of 22-year-old lefty Blake Snell, who sported an astonishing 1.41 ERA across three minor league levels in 2015.

13. Boston Red Sox

Amazing what adding a guy like David Price can do. After a season in which Boston’s starting pitching seemed existentially bad at times, the outlook appears significantly sunnier now that one of the game’s most reliable frontline starters is in the fold. Eduardo Rodriguez looks like a capable Major Leaguer, Clay Buchholz was good whenever he was healthy in 2015, and Rick Porcello cannot possibly be as bad as he looked in his first season in Boston. Long-heralded top prospect Henry Owens could join the Red Sox’ rotation for good at some point in the 2016 campaign.

12. Pittsburgh Pirates

Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano give the Pirates a very potent 1-2 punch, but the departures of A.J. Burnett to retirement and J.A. Happ to free agency leave the Pirates’ rotation with far more uncertainty and far fewer guys who go by their initials. Pitching coach Ray Searage has earned a reputation for saving or revitalizing veterans’ careers, which bodes well for new acquisitions Jon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong. One of the game’s biggest prospects, Tyler Glasnow, finished the 2015 season with eight strong starts at Class AAA and could join the big-league staff by early summer.

11. Seattle Mariners

Felix Hernandez feels like one of the safest bets in any rotation, with eight straight seasons of over 200 innings pitched and a history of excellence. Behind him, the Mariners return Hisashi Iwakuma on a team-friendly deal, and 23-year-old former top prospect Taijuan Walker, who recovered from a brutal start to the 2015 season to pitch well down the stretch in Seattle.

10. Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona committed a ton of resources in terms of money and prospects to revamp their rotation this offseason, and they may ultimately end up regretting giving up the package they traded for Shelby Miller. But for 2016, at least, the additions of Zack Greinke and Miller to a staff that already included good young starters Patrick Corbin and Robbie Ray gives the Diamondbacks a great group. And top prospect Archie Bradley is ready to compete for a full-time job in the Arizona rotation after a 2015 season derailed by injuries.

9. San Francisco Giants

Every club from this point forward on the list can make some reasonable claim at having the game’s best rotation, as the Giants can for adding Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto to a rotation that already includes Madison Bumgarner. But it’s hard to guess what the Giants can expect from Matt Cain or Jake Peavy at this phase in their careers, and Samardjiza’s nightmarish 2015 campaign should be at least mildly concerning.

8. Houston Astros

The Astros’ rotation appears a bit top-heavy thanks to reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel, but the group behind him is at least solid. Lance McCullers made his big-league debut in 2015 after only 32 innings above Class A ball, then pitched very well in 22 Major League starts. Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers and Scott Feldman are all solid-to-good mid-rotation types when healthy.

7. Los Angeles Dodgers

Speaking of top heavy: Clayton Kershaw is the difference between the Dodgers and a second-division starting rotation, but Kershaw’s so good that the Dodgers land squarely within the Top 10 here. The lefty should open the year as the obvious favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award even after finishing third in 2015 because no pitcher in baseball can match Kershaw’s recent track record. Behind him, the Dodgers will hope for good health from Scott Kazmir, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brett Anderson. They’re all good pitchers when healthy, but all have struggled at times to stay healthy.

6. Chicago White Sox

Chris Sale might be the world’s most dominant pitcher not named Clayton Kershaw, Jose Quintana is criminally underrated, and Carlos Rodon looks like a potential stud. The White Sox’ remarkable ability to keep their pitchers healthy brightens the outlook on the South Side, enough to overlook the shakiness in the back end of their rotation.

5. St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals had the best starting rotation in baseball in 2015, but last season’s top performer — John Lackey — joined the rival Cubs in free agency, and rotation stalwart Lance Lynn will miss all of 2016 following Tommy John surgery. The return of Adam Wainwright and the remarkable depth in the Cardinals’ rotation means they won’t fall far: If Wainwright, at 34, can be the pitcher he was before the Achilles tear that ruined his 2015 season, St. Louis could own the best starting staff in baseball again in 2016. Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez are both still young and very good, and Mike Leake gives the Cardinals some much-needed durability.

4. Cleveland Indians

This one will come as the big surprise to anyone who hasn’t been paying close attention: The Indians are loaded with good starters. Corey Kluber did not quite match his 2014 Cy Young heights in 2015, but his peripherals suggest he’s still every bit that good. Carlos Carrasco is quietly awesome. Danny Salazar made good on his great stuff with a great 2015 season. And oft-frustrating former megaprospect Trevor Bauer, at 25, still has time to put it all together.

3. Washington Nationals

The Nats own a pair of true aces in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, a duo good enough to give them a top-half starting rotation even if they trotted out three total scrubs behind them. But they don’t: Gio Gonzalez makes for a strong No. 3 starter, Joe Ross offers big upside, and top prospect Lucas Giolito could join the group by the All-Star Break.

2. New York Mets

This one you’ve probably heard about: The Mets have young fireballers for days and days, as last seen powering the club to the 2015 World Series. The lack of longer resumes keeps the Mets from the top spot on this list: Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz have a combined total of zero Major League seasons with more than 200 regular-season innings pitched. If all four can stay healthy for the length of 2016, look out. Folk hero Bartolo Colon should fill the fifth slot in the team’s rotation until Zack Wheeler returns from Tommy John surgery.

1. Chicago Cubs

I’m going to be honest: I did not begin this list expecting to name the Cubs’ as the top starting rotation in baseball. The Mets, Nats and Indians can all probably match the excellent top three of Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and John Lackey, but the Cubs’ depth sets them apart. Only the Cardinals have Nos. 4 and 5 starters that stack up to Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks, but St. Louis can’t match the Cubs in the front end of the rotation. Astoundingly, the Cubs’ starting pitching isn’t even the most notable thing about their 2016 team, given their remarkable core of young position players.

The Cubs: It’s happening, y’all.