Wow, we're nearly halfway through the season already? How did that happen? It really feels like just a week ago we were all excited about the season starting.

One thing you'll notice in the charts below: it seems pundits seem to be putting a bit too much stock in raw record. Are the Falcons the best team in the NFL, still? I say no. They're vulnerable and their 6-0 record is helped by the fact that they've already played all four AFC West teams. And based on the Objective rankings, I'm not alone in my discrediting of the Falcons as the top team.

If I had to pick a top team to take the Falcons' place, it'd probably be the 49ers or Bears. No offense to fans in Houston, but I just feel the NFC is significantly stronger than the AFC this year (for the record, I am a Chargers fan, so there's no conference bias here). So the 49ers and Bears playing as well as they have in such a strong conference (and divisions) is impressive.

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking NFC North 9.5000 NFC West 12.1250 NFC East 12.9000 AFC East 17.3625 AFC North 18.7375 NFC South 18.8000 AFC South 20.8750 AFC West 21.7000





Stock Rising

Team Week 7 Average Week 8 Average Difference NO 24.000 19.667 4.333 DAL 19.000 15.583 3.417 TEN 26.546 24.250 2.296 PIT 13.909 11.917 1.992 MIN 11.182 9.583 1.599

Here come the Saints! They're turning into the team we all expected! Those 4 losses earlier (including one to the Chiefs)? Pay no attention to them.

Stock Falling

Team Week 7 Average Week 8 Average Difference BAL 3.273 7.667 -4.394 ARI 13.818 16.917 -3.099 BUF 23.364 26.250 -2.886 DET 19.455 21.500 -2.045 SEA 8.364 10.167 -1.803

With the key injuries they've had on defense, I'm surprised Baltimore hasn't slid further. They only have a +13 point differential right now.

Subjective Average

Subjective Falcons 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1.167 -0.167 Texans 3 2 3 4 3 4 2 2 2 2 3 1 2.583 0.872 Giants 2 4 4 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2.667 0.424 Bears 5 3 2 6 5 3 4 4 4 5 5 8 4.500 0.591 49ers 4 7 5 3 4 5 5 5 6 4 4 4 4.667 0.879 Packers 7 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 5.750 1.250 Patriots 8 9 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 7.417 0.856 Ravens 6 6 8 7 7 9 8 8 8 7 8 10 7.667 -4.394 Vikings 9 8 9 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 9.583 1.599 Broncos 12 11 10 9 11 11 9 10 12 10 9 7 10.083 0.553 Seahawks 11 10 11 10 9 8 11 11 10 11 11 9 10.167 -1.803 Steelers 10 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 13 11.917 1.992 Eagles 13 17 13 12 13 16 13 13 13 17 14 16 14.167 -0.803 Redskins 18 14 21 17 16 13 15 16 14 15 13 15 15.583 -0.219 Cowboys 15 13 15 14 17 23 14 18 17 14 15 12 15.583 3.417 Cardinals 14 19 18 19 18 14 16 17 16 13 19 20 16.917 -3.099 Chargers 17 23 16 15 20 22 17 14 15 16 16 18 17.417 -1.599 Dolphins 16 21 14 23 14 21 18 15 20 18 18 14 17.667 0.969 Saints 20 16 24 16 19 17 21 21 25 23 17 17 19.667 4.333 Jets 24 15 23 21 15 18 20 19 19 20 20 22 19.667 0.151 Bengals 22 20 17 22 24 19 19 23 18 19 22 21 20.500 -1.773 Rams 21 25 19 20 21 15 22 22 27 22 23 19 21.333 -1.151 Lions 19 18 20 18 25 24 24 20 24 21 21 24 21.500 -2.045 Colts 23 26 25 25 23 20 23 26 22 25 24 26 24.000 1.546 Titans 25 24 22 24 22 25 26 24 21 26 25 27 24.250 2.296 Buccaneers 26 22 28 27 27 26 25 25 26 24 26 23 25.417 -1.508 Bills 27 27 26 26 26 27 27 27 23 27 27 25 26.250 -2.886 Raiders 28 31 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 29 28.250 1.114 Panthers 29 28 31 29 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 30 29.333 -1.333 Browns 30 29 29 30 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 28 29.500 0.046 Chiefs 32 30 30 32 31 32 32 31 31 31 31 31 31.167 0.197 Jaguars 31 32 32 31 32 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 31.667 -0.303

Observations:

Previously, the subjective rankings had a good balance of AFC and NFC teams in the top 12. That's starting to slip now as the NFC has a 7-5 advantage over the AFC. I think it should be even more lopsided.

I really don't see the Eagles being that high, nor the Redskins.

The Chargers fell about 1.5 spots this week, mostly to make room for the Cowboys.

After enjoying some time up in the top 10, the Cardinals are starting to fade quickly with their offense sputtering now.

Only four of the bottom 12 are NFC teams.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective Jaguars 31 32 32 31 32 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 0.471 -0.410 Falcons 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 0.553 0.553 Packers 7 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 0.595 -0.942 Browns 30 29 29 30 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 28 0.646 -0.136 Chiefs 32 30 30 32 31 32 32 31 31 31 31 31 0.687 0.044 Giants 2 4 4 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 0.745 -0.338 Panthers 29 28 31 29 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 30 0.745 -0.603 Patriots 8 9 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 0.759 0.142 Steelers 10 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 13 0.759 -0.237 Vikings 9 8 9 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 0.862 -0.541 Texans 3 2 3 4 3 4 2 2 2 2 3 1 0.862 -0.029 Raiders 28 31 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 29 0.924 0.281 Seahawks 11 10 11 10 9 8 11 11 10 11 11 9 0.986 0.105 49ers 4 7 5 3 4 5 5 5 6 4 4 4 1.027 0.371 Ravens 6 6 8 7 7 9 8 8 8 7 8 10 1.106 -0.377 Bills 27 27 26 26 26 27 27 27 23 27 27 25 1.164 -0.937 Broncos 12 11 10 9 11 11 9 10 12 10 9 7 1.382 0.314 Bears 5 3 2 6 5 3 4 4 4 5 5 8 1.500 0.336 Buccaneers 26 22 28 27 27 26 25 25 26 24 26 23 1.656 0.660 Eagles 13 17 13 12 13 16 13 13 13 17 14 16 1.724 0.426 Titans 25 24 22 24 22 25 26 24 21 26 25 27 1.738 0.505 Colts 23 26 25 25 23 20 23 26 22 25 24 26 1.780 0.221 Bengals 22 20 17 22 24 19 19 23 18 19 22 21 2.062 0.519 Redskins 18 14 21 17 16 13 15 16 14 15 13 15 2.178 -0.244 Cardinals 14 19 18 19 18 14 16 17 16 13 19 20 2.216 -0.574 Lions 19 18 20 18 25 24 24 20 24 21 21 24 2.466 0.078 Jets 24 15 23 21 15 18 20 19 19 20 20 22 2.656 0.367 Chargers 17 23 16 15 20 22 17 14 15 16 16 18 2.722 -0.002 Cowboys 15 13 15 14 17 23 14 18 17 14 15 12 2.783 -1.078 Rams 21 25 19 20 21 15 22 22 27 22 23 19 2.925 0.135 Dolphins 16 21 14 23 14 21 18 15 20 18 18 14 2.981 -0.218 Saints 20 16 24 16 19 17 21 21 25 23 17 17 3.037 0.905

Observations:

Teams are shifting again as about half the teams have seen their Standard Deviation go up this week

Looks like pundits are getting the memo about the Bears and are reacting.

Objective Average

Objective 49ers 4 2 5 2 2 5 2 4 3.250 1.250 Texans 9 3 3 3 4 2 3 1 3.500 1.750 Packers 2 5 4 4 3 7 4 2 3.875 2.500 Bears 3 9 1 1 10 1 1 7 4.125 -2.500 Giants 1 4 6 5 25 4 5 3 6.625 -2.125 Falcons 8 13 2 6 7 6 9 5 7.000 -0.375 Broncos 5 1 9 7 9 17 7 6 7.625 2.250 Patriots 6 17 7 8 8 3 6 10 8.125 0.500 Seahawks 7 6 10 9 6 16 8 9 8.875 -0.125 Vikings 11 18 8 10 1 9 11 8 9.500 1.875 Dolphins 12 7 17 16 15 10 16 18 13.875 0.750 Rams 13 11 15 11 16 22 10 16 14.250 -0.125 Ravens 10 22 11 15 12 13 19 14 14.500 -5.250 Cowboys 18 8 13 13 14 21 13 19 14.875 0.250 Redskins 14 15 18 12 27 12 12 12 15.250 -0.625 Cardinals 19 24 20 14 5 15 14 11 15.250 -0.125 Lions 16 10 12 17 19 14 15 21 15.500 2.750 Steelers 21 16 16 19 20 11 20 15 17.250 2.500 Jets 17 19 14 20 17 24 18 22 18.875 0.750 Buccaneers 15 21 31 18 29 8 17 13 19.000 -2.000 Eagles 20 14 22 23 24 19 23 17 20.250 -3.250 Chargers 25 26 23 21 11 20 21 25 21.500 1.125 Saints 24 30 26 22 32 18 22 20 24.250 0.625 Panthers 22 12 29 25 31 25 24 27 24.375 -1.750 Bengals 23 23 27 26 23 26 25 23 24.500 -2.500 Colts 29 27 21 24 18 31 26 29 25.625 0.875 Raiders 26 20 25 30 21 27 29 28 25.750 1.375 Titans 30 29 19 28 13 28 30 30 25.875 3.000 Bills 27 28 24 27 22 30 28 24 26.250 -1.375 Browns 28 25 28 29 28 23 27 26 26.750 -1.125 Jaguars 31 31 30 31 26 29 31 31 30.000 -0.625 Chiefs 32 32 32 32 30 32 32 32 31.750 -0.250

Observations:

49ers are back to being dominant.

After being a near-consensus top-pick in the objective rankings last week, and though they beat the Lions, the Bears have slipped a bit.

Those losses to the Cowboys and Eagles has really hurt the Giants' ranking on BeatGraphs.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective Chiefs 32 32 32 32 30 32 32 32 0.661 -0.046 49ers 4 2 5 2 2 5 2 4 1.299 -0.701 Packers 2 5 4 4 3 7 4 2 1.536 -1.059 Bengals 23 23 27 26 23 26 25 23 1.581 -1.291 Jaguars 31 31 30 31 26 29 31 31 1.658 -0.937 Browns 28 25 28 29 28 23 27 26 1.854 0.200 Texans 9 3 3 3 4 2 3 1 2.236 -0.445 Bills 27 28 24 27 22 30 28 24 2.488 -1.708 Jets 17 19 14 20 17 24 18 22 2.934 0.291 Falcons 8 13 2 6 7 6 9 5 3.000 0.357 Seahawks 7 6 10 9 6 16 8 9 3.018 -0.174 Steelers 21 16 16 19 20 11 20 15 3.152 -2.134 Eagles 20 14 22 23 24 19 23 17 3.231 0.492 Lions 16 10 12 17 19 14 15 21 3.354 -1.615 Raiders 26 20 25 30 21 27 29 28 3.382 0.049 Dolphins 12 7 17 16 15 10 16 18 3.586 -0.412 Bears 3 9 1 1 10 1 1 7 3.655 2.544 Rams 13 11 15 11 16 22 10 16 3.666 -2.900 Ravens 10 22 11 15 12 13 19 14 3.841 0.610 Patriots 6 17 7 8 8 3 6 10 3.855 -1.482 Cowboys 18 8 13 13 14 21 13 19 3.919 -0.187 Colts 29 27 21 24 18 31 26 29 4.121 0.767 Broncos 5 1 9 7 9 17 7 6 4.270 -1.397 Vikings 11 18 8 10 1 9 11 8 4.388 1.036 Chargers 25 26 23 21 11 20 21 25 4.472 0.173 Saints 24 30 26 22 32 18 22 20 4.521 -0.662 Redskins 14 15 18 12 27 12 12 12 4.867 2.321 Panthers 22 12 29 25 31 25 24 27 5.384 -1.756 Cardinals 19 24 20 14 5 15 14 11 5.472 -1.094 Titans 30 29 19 28 13 28 30 30 5.946 3.742 Giants 1 4 6 5 25 4 5 3 7.088 3.313 Buccaneers 15 21 31 18 29 8 17 13 7.297 1.255

Observations:

Because the objective sites all use different models for ranking teams, when there's consensus, you can have faith in knowing that a team is performing well, or poorly, or somewhere in the middle.

That said, when seven of eight sites rank the Chiefs as dead last? Yeah, they're bad.

Conversely: the 49ers, Packers and Texans are definitely top-five teams for the most part.

Falcons, not so much consensus they're the best team. In fact, only one objective ranking has them near first, and that's Team Rankings with them at second. No other site has them above 5th place.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Texans 2.583 3.500 3.042 1.310 49ers 4.667 3.250 3.958 1.065 Falcons 1.167 7.000 4.083 -0.270 Bears 4.500 4.125 4.313 -0.955 Giants 2.667 6.625 4.646 -0.851 Packers 5.750 3.875 4.813 1.875 Patriots 7.417 8.125 7.771 0.678 Broncos 10.083 7.625 8.854 1.402 Seahawks 10.167 8.875 9.521 -0.964 Vikings 9.583 9.500 9.542 1.736 Ravens 7.667 14.500 11.083 -4.822 Steelers 11.917 17.250 14.583 2.247 Cowboys 15.583 14.875 15.229 1.834 Redskins 15.583 15.250 15.417 -0.423 Dolphins 17.667 13.875 15.771 0.860 Cardinals 16.917 15.250 16.083 -1.611 Eagles 14.167 20.250 17.208 -2.026 Rams 21.333 14.250 17.792 -0.639 Lions 21.500 15.500 18.500 0.352 Jets 19.667 18.875 19.271 0.451 Chargers 17.417 21.500 19.458 -0.236 Saints 19.667 24.250 21.958 2.480 Buccaneers 25.417 19.000 22.208 -1.753 Bengals 20.500 24.500 22.500 -2.136 Colts 24.000 25.625 24.813 1.210 Titans 24.250 25.875 25.063 2.647 Bills 26.250 26.250 26.250 -2.131 Panthers 29.333 24.375 26.854 -1.541 Raiders 28.250 25.750 27.000 1.244 Browns 29.500 26.750 28.125 -0.540 Jaguars 31.667 30.000 30.833 -0.464 Chiefs 31.167 31.750 31.458 -0.026

Observations:

Though they beat the Lions, the Bears have been passed up this week by three other teams.

Overall, the Chiefs still managed to get even worse this week, on their bye.

5 of the top 6 teams are in the NFC, 2 of those in the NFC North.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Chiefs 31.167 31.750 0.735 0.061 49ers 4.667 3.250 1.338 -0.145 Jaguars 31.667 30.000 1.378 -0.683 Packers 5.750 3.875 1.414 -0.659 Texans 2.583 3.500 1.627 -0.440 Bills 26.250 26.250 1.813 -1.431 Browns 29.500 26.750 1.855 -0.437 Seahawks 10.167 8.875 2.151 -0.034 Patriots 7.417 8.125 2.532 -0.967 Raiders 28.250 25.750 2.567 0.089 Bears 4.500 4.125 2.594 0.537 Bengals 20.500 24.500 2.719 -0.013 Jets 19.667 18.875 2.798 0.352 Vikings 9.583 9.500 2.854 0.429 Colts 24.000 25.625 3.054 0.531 Broncos 10.083 7.625 3.145 -0.639 Cowboys 15.583 14.875 3.303 -1.101 Steelers 11.917 17.250 3.339 -1.206 Falcons 1.167 7.000 3.457 0.193 Redskins 15.583 15.250 3.514 1.012 Dolphins 17.667 13.875 3.732 -0.339 Eagles 14.167 20.250 3.852 1.140 Cardinals 16.917 15.250 3.948 -0.856 Chargers 17.417 21.500 4.056 -0.779 Titans 24.250 25.875 4.073 2.012 Lions 21.500 15.500 4.098 0.350 Panthers 29.333 24.375 4.222 -1.215 Ravens 7.667 14.500 4.224 0.432 Saints 19.667 24.250 4.330 0.571 Rams 21.333 14.250 4.749 -0.873 Giants 2.667 6.625 4.918 2.241 Buccaneers 25.417 19.000 5.730 0.478

Observations:

It should be of little surprise that the teams with the biggest differences in average also have the highest Standard Deviation. We'll get to that chart in a second.

See what I was saying before about the Falcons? They're actually middle of the pack as far as ranking consistency. The 49ers are the second most-consistent team ranked.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj Ravens 7.667 14.500 6.833 0.856 Eagles 14.167 20.250 6.083 2.447 Falcons 1.167 7.000 5.833 0.208 Steelers 11.917 17.250 5.333 -0.508 Saints 19.667 24.250 4.583 3.708 Chargers 17.417 21.500 4.083 -2.724 Bengals 20.500 24.500 4.000 0.727 Giants 2.667 6.625 3.958 2.549 Titans 24.250 25.875 1.625 -0.705 Colts 24.000 25.625 1.625 0.670 Texans 2.583 3.500 0.917 -0.879 Patriots 7.417 8.125 0.708 0.356 Chiefs 31.167 31.750 0.583 0.447 Bills 26.250 26.250 0.000 -1.511 Vikings 9.583 9.500 -0.083 -0.276 Redskins 15.583 15.250 -0.333 0.406 Bears 4.500 4.125 -0.375 3.091 Cowboys 15.583 14.875 -0.708 3.167 Jets 19.667 18.875 -0.792 -0.599 Seahawks 10.167 8.875 -1.292 -1.678 49ers 4.667 3.250 -1.417 -0.371 Cardinals 16.917 15.250 -1.667 -2.974 Jaguars 31.667 30.000 -1.667 0.322 Packers 5.750 3.875 -1.875 -1.250 Broncos 10.083 7.625 -2.458 -1.697 Raiders 28.250 25.750 -2.500 -0.261 Browns 29.500 26.750 -2.750 1.171 Dolphins 17.667 13.875 -3.792 0.219 Panthers 29.333 24.375 -4.958 0.417 Lions 21.500 15.500 -6.000 -4.795 Buccaneers 25.417 19.000 -6.417 0.492 Rams 21.333 14.250 -7.083 -1.026

Observations:

So the Ravens are the most overrated team this week. This doesn't surprise me much.

For whatever reason, the media really wants to believe in the Eagles.

Remember how I said that the media puts too much emphasis on record? See the Falcons and Steelers as significantly overrated?

After starting out strong, the Bengals have severely faltered.

Funny how the four most under-ranked teams are NFC teams, with two of them in the NFC South.

Best Match-ups for Week 8

Opponents (Ranking) Game Time Ranking Difference Indianapolis (24.813) at Tennessee (25.063) Sun, Oct. 28 1 p.m. EDT 0.250 Washington (15.417) at Pittsburgh (14.583) Sun, Oct. 28 1 p.m. EDT 0.834

Worst Match-Ups for Week 8

Opponents (Ranking) Game Time Ranking Difference Jacksonville (30.833) at Green Bay (4.813) Sun, Oct. 28 1 p.m. EDT 26.020 Carolina (26.854) at Chicago (4.313) Sun, Oct. 28 1 p.m. EDT 22.541

Sources