The geographically tiny electorate includes two of Melbourne’s wealthiest suburbs, Toorak and South Yarra. It features ageing public housing towers, alongside an increasing number of gleaming new residential skyscrapers. The electorate also has one of the state’s largest gay populations. The ReachTel poll, commissioned by Bike Melbourne a day after the Andrews government promised to build long-awaited cycle lanes along St Kilda Road last week, found Labor would have won the vote in Prahran with a thumping 7 per cent margin last week. Support for the Liberals has fallen dramatically since they narrowly lost the seat to the Greens four years ago, according to the poll of 603 voters. The Liberals’ primary vote was at 33.3 per cent in the poll, a decline in support of more than 11 points since 2014.

The Greens’ Sam Hibbins won the seat on preferences after winning just 24.75 per cent of the primary vote at the last election, edging out the Liberals by just 277 votes. Greens MP Sam Hibbins. Credit:Justin McManus His support has barely moved since then according to last week’s poll, which found 24.5 per cent would have voted Greens. Labor’s support level, meanwhile, has risen from 25.91 per cent four years ago to 30.3 per cent. The result puts it well clear on a two-party preferred basis, with 57 per cent of the vote to the Greens’ 43 per cent.

The poll was weighted for age and gender to align with census population data. It also asked Prahran voters what they made of Labor's promise to build separated bicycle lanes all the way along St Kilda Road, from the Arts Centre in Southbank to Carlisle Street in St Kilda. It found emphatic support among the voters for the protected bike lanes: 67 per cent supported them, 24 per cent opposed, while 8.8 per cent were unsure. The lanes, which would cost $27 million, would be completed in 2025 to coincide with the opening of the Metro rail tunnel.

VicRoads began planning for separated bike lanes in 2015, but the project hit a wall in April last year when Premier Daniel Andrews intervened over concerns the lanes, along with Metro tunnel construction works, would cause too much congestion for motorists. Bike Melbourne spokesman Nik Dow praised the Andrews government for finally committing to the project. He said the clever design would preserve road space for cars during peak times. “There will still be three lanes for cars as there is right now, but people on bikes won’t be getting in their way any more,” Mr Dow said. Labor candidate Neil Pharaoh said many Prahran voters had raised concerns about the safety of the current bike lanes on St Kilda Road.

“A lot of people will be able to cycle to the city safely and easily,” he said of the promised separated lanes. But Mr Hibbins said the lanes would have already been under way if Labor had not “put them in development hell ever since Daniel Andrews put the kybosh on them two years ago”. Liberal candidate Katie Allen said Labor had been talking about the lanes for a long time. "2025 is a long way off if they are actually going to deliver," Dr Allen said.