Between the two events, we think the odds of getting at least one inch of snow in the D.C. area has risen to at least 30 percent and we are introducing our snow lover’s crystal ball. This probability could rise (or fall) as the forecast comes into better focus.

The first chance of snow: Thursday night

Models have reached a consensus that light snow will affect portions of the area starting Thursday night and lasting into early Friday.

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Moisture will be limited and temperatures, forecast to be near freezing, will be marginal for snow accumulation since the ground won’t be that cold.

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This event’s snow potential is between a coating and an inch or so of snow, with the highest amounts in our colder suburbs, west and north of the Beltway. Locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out in one of those small-scale bands that are difficult to forecast.

We will need to watch the event’s timing. Right now, any snow is most likely to occur in between the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes. But any shift in the timing could mean the snow that falls would have a greater effect.

The second chance of snow: Friday night into the weekend

This event has greater snow potential than the Thursday night event but is trickier to forecast and could end up missing the region.

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The storm in question is predicted to pass to our south, making its closest approach to the D.C. region Saturday.

Its forecast has a lot of uncertainty because it is farther out in time and models present different predictions. Some keep the precipitation well to our south while others spread snow into the area Friday night into Saturday.

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If snow reaches the area, models agree it will be sufficiently cold for the snow to accumulate. Arctic air (highs 30 to 35, and lows in the 20s) will have already been in place for about 36 hours.

The big bone of contention is how far north the storm and its area of precipitation will track and how quickly it will strengthen. The models still are waffling from run to run in their forecasts.

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The most we can say now is there still is a chance of snow and the potential for some accumulation especially south and east of the city if the more aggressive models are correct.

The last several GFS runs have kept the Saturday event well to our south. Today’s model run held forecasting the northern edge of the snow well to our south but forecasting a decent snowstorm for portions of Georgia and the Southeast.

The Canadian (below) and European models, which kept the storm well to our south Jan. 2, nudged it back northward clipping our area with light snow on today’s run.

The European model now suggests several inches could fall in Southern Maryland (southern Calvert and St. Mary’s counties) with about an inch in D.C.

The UKMET model’s predicted surface and upper pattern suggests even more snow farther north than the European model.