UFC Fight Night 161 takes place Saturday, Oct. 12, at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla., and UFC odds are already listed for the event.

Here's a complete betting guide previewing the strawweight bout between Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Michelle Waterson, including updated odds and our pick.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

(Getty Images) https://images.daznservices.com/di/library/sporting_news/ef/57/joanna-jedrzejczyk-100319-getty-ftrjpg_1v8qkmrfgrx8o1nv1twvuj7njs.jpg?t=-1819632547&w=500&quality=80

The former UFC strawweight champion, who hails from Olsztyn, Poland, defended her title an impressive five times. Between 2015 and 2017, she was an idolized champion and represented the company to the fullest. Her striking dominance was unforgettable. She was already a legend in the sport by the time she was 32.

Joanna kick-started her martial arts journey after discovering Muay Thai. A young teenage Joanna found herself winning competitive European tournaments and gold medals.

A 27-3 Muay Thai record led Joanna to her mixed martial arts debut in 2012. A six-fight win streak with three of those bouts ending by TKO or submission caught the attention of the UFC. Her win streak just couldn’t be beaten. The crisp striking and footwork of Joanna out-classed her opposition for four years straight. Eventually, Joanna met her kryptonite in the form of Rose Namajunas. It was a sad streak to see come to an end, but it certainly wasn’t the finish line for Joanna.

In 2018, Joanna returned to the Flyweight division against the current defending champion Valentina Shevchenko. Joanna found herself on the other end of victory one again. Unfazed by shortcomings. It’s now October 2019 and Joanna Jedrzejczyk faces Michelle Waterson back in the strawweight division where she used to hold the crown.

UFC Tampa will play host to a barn-burner of a main event that will not disappoint. The bookmakers are wise to the pre-eminence in such an established name in the business that Joanna has. I didn’t expect anything less with the over juiced line that’s presented.

Line: Joanna Jedrzejczyk best-priced at -360

Michelle 'The Karate Hottie' Waterson

(Getty Images) https://images.daznservices.com/di/library/sporting_news/d3/b3/michelle-waterson-100319-getty-ftrjpg_l6xx37qa26nh1iipmiepsoeob.jpg?t=-1819632547&w=500&quality=80

Prevent yourself from taking the name ‘The Karate Hottie’ lightly. Michelle Waterson was a professional model until one day she decided to fight (as you do). Karate was always her "bread and butter" with a black belt in freestyle karate opening doors to learning multiple disciplines. Muay Thai, BJJ, Boxing and wrestling helped Michelle become the complete fighter she is today.

The evolution from ring girl to professional mixed martial artists was in 2007 when Michelle made her professional debut.

By 2014, Waterson was now making headlines. The former model was making her opponents tap; whilst doing it frequently. It was a picture-perfect debut in the UFC when she submitted Angela Magana. "The Karate Hottie" was here to stay.

Training out of Jackson Wink MMA gym is helping Michelle progress towards title contention, the three-fight win streak she’s currently riding is the first time since 2014 she’s been on such a positive run. Wins over Courtney Casey, Felice Herrig & Karolina Kowalkiewicz put Michelle in position to face for the title if she can defeat Joanna.

The heart and tenacity Michelle has shown is something we can’t ignore, at this heavy price and given the circumstances of each fighter, don’t be too quick to count out the ‘Karate Hottie’ in Tampa Bay, Florida for next weekend's UFC Fight Night.

Line: Michelle Waterson best-priced at +320

UFC Tampa picks and betting prediction

Uncertainty springs to mind in this one. With her recent patchy performances, I’m clueless as to where Joanna’s head is at. On the other hand, the only path to victory I see for Michelle would be groundwork.

Through 18 professional fights, Joanna has never been submitted. She’s gone toe to toe with the most-dangerous women in the sport. Other than Rose Namajunas and Valentina Shevchenko, she’s dominated near enough every round she’s fought in. These facts are not something a betting man would feel comfortable putting his money against.

The game-plan for Michelle has a blue-print with thanks to Rose Namajunas and Valentina Shevchenko. Having the skill level to accomplish this is another conversation. Knock her out, or out-strike her enough to engage a grappling exchange. The way Valentina controlled Joanna against the cage doesn’t seem a likely outcome, nor does a knockout that Rose accomplished in her championship-winning fight.

A striking battle would favor the output and consistency Joana will present, where ultimately Michelle might have to attempt the opposite. She won’t be able to keep up with the volume of strikes that Joanna will land so at some point I expect her to wrestle. I would lean Joanna being able to defend these attempts, but with 25 minutes on the clock, I’m not so sure I’d want to lay -360 or give a betting prediction in this situation.

I do like the chances of this fight reaching the fifth and final round. The line for this hasn’t been released as of yet so keep an eye on the UFC odds for an early release.

UFC Fight Night 161 betting tip: Fight goes the distance

UFC Fight Night Tampa full card, UFC odds

MAIN CARD

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Michelle Waterson (female strawweight)

Cub Swanson vs Cron Gracie (featherweight)

Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas (welterweight)

Thomas Gifford vs Brok Weaver (lightweight)

Eryk Anders vs Gerald Meerschaert (middleweight)

Luis Pena vs Matt Frevola (lightweight)

UFC 243 PRELIMS

Ryan Spann vs Devin Clark (lightweight)

Niko Price vs James Vick (welterweight)

Max Griffin vs Alex Morono (welterweight)

Hector Aldana vs Miguel Baeza (welterweight)

UFC 243 FIGHT PASS PRELIMS