Heller was a 5-4 decision. Without Scalia’s vote, there would not have been a majority of justices in favor of an individual-rights reading of the Second Amendment. The National Rifle Association argues that if Scalia were to be replaced by Garland, or any other liberal to moderate justice, Heller would be overturned and your right to keep and bear arms would be little more than a memory.

Of course, the NRA issues ominous warnings about the end of gun rights in America at least every four years. And yet, even with two terms of President Barack Obama and two Obama appointments to the Supreme Court, there are approximately 320 million guns in the United States. Despite what the NRA called Obama’s “10-Point Plan to ‘Change’ the Second Amendment,” gun rights are alive and well in America, and gun sales are at historic highs. In most states, the NRA has won favorable legislation so often that the nation’s leading gun-advocacy group is left to push for guns in the few places left from which they are usually excluded, like kindergarten classrooms and churches.

The NRA’s remarkable record of legislative success highlights one reason gun rights will not be significantly affected by a Justice Garland. Gun rights in America have been vigorously and successfully protected by the elected branches of government. Long before the Supreme Court weighed in with Heller, law-abiding Americans had the ability to have a gun in their home for self-defense (with the exception of residents of Washington, D.C., whose laws were struck down in Heller). In most states, it is easy to obtain a permit to carry a gun in public—and, increasingly, states are passing laws allowing public carry without any permit. Even if Heller were overturned, current state and federal laws giving people easy access to guns will remain on the books. Don’t expect the lawmakers behind Georgia’s “Guns Everywhere” law to suddenly reverse course on guns just because Heller is overturned.

In any event, Heller is unlikely to be overturned. There are several high-profile cases that are likely to be reversed by a liberal Supreme Court, such as Citizens United and Shelby County. Heller, however, is not one of them. While there is no doubt that several of the justices believe Heller was wrongly decided, they have little reason to overturn the decision and every reason to maintain it.

Heller was a narrow decision that did not fundamentally reshape America’s regime of gun laws. The Court held that individuals have a right to have handguns in their homes. But only two cities, Washington and Chicago, and no states, had laws prohibiting handgun possession. (Chicago allowed residents to have long guns for self-defense.) In the eight years since Heller, there have been several hundred lawsuits challenging nearly every type of gun law on the books. Only a few laws, however, have been invalidated.