The first day of NHL free agency brought about both free agent signings and transactions between teams, with the biggest transaction being Toronto Maple Leafs star forward Phil Kessel dealt along with Tim Erixon, Tyler Biggs, and a second round pick to the Pittsburgh Penguins for Kasperi Kapanen, Scott Harrington, a first round pick (lottery protected), and a third round pick in 2016. In addition to these pieces, the Maple Leafs also retained 15% ($1.2 million per season) of Kessel’s salary. By analyzing Kessel’s underlying possession numbers, point production, the return the Leafs received, and comparable trades that have occurred in the past for top-line wingers, the Leafs did not receive good enough value for Phil Kessel. With that said, there is some validity to the point that management did the best they could in the context by which this deal was made considering Kessel’s Limited No Trade Clause that may have reduced the potential return Toronto could have received.

Analyzing Pittsburgh’s side of the deal: Phil Kessel, Tyler Biggs, Tim Erixon and Pittsburgh’s second round pick in 2016

Most would agree that Phil Kessel was the best player on the Maple Leafs. While Kessel displayed some defensive deficiencies over his tenure, he has more than made up for his lack of defense with prolific scoring despite playing with poor line mates. Kessel’s defensive deficiencies can be assessed through viewing his underlying possession stats over his tenure as a Maple Leaf. More specifically, his with-or-without-you stats (WOWY) in terms of even-strength goals against per 60 (GA/60) and Corsi Against per 60 (CA/60):

Both graphs courtesy of Hockey Analysis.

It becomes very apparent through viewing these two graphs that Kessel’s teammates tend to experience more shot attempts against and goals against when on the ice with Kessel. It can be inferred through these results that the criticism that Kessel isn’t great defensively has some validity.

However, while Kessel has not been a strong defensive player, he was an offensive catalyst for the Maple Leafs. Kessel’s points per game since coming to the Leafs six years ago is 0.88 points/game (tied for 20th in the NHL). If one were to take Kessel’s most recent three seasons (a much more reasonable representation of his current output), Kessel ranks 15th in points/game, just ahead of Jonathan Toews, Corey Perry, and Martin St. Louis.

While Kessel’s most common line mates during this three-year period have been centremen Tyler Bozak and winger James vanRiemsdyk, other players who have produced close to Kessel’s points/game have had far superior line mates. Toews has played mainly with all-star forward Marian Hossa and has benefited from other talented linemates such as Patrick Sharp and Duncan Keith. Perry has played largely with Ryan Getzlaf, while St.Louis had the luxury of playing mainly with Tampa Bay Lightning sniper and Rocket Richard trophy winner Steven Stamkos. In sum, it can be seen that while Kessel has had some defensive deficiencies over the course of his career in Toronto, his offensive production has remained elite. This elite production has been accomplished by Kessel despite having inferior linemates relative to other players producing a similar points/game rate over the last three years.

In addition to receiving Kessel, the Penguins also received 15% salary retention per year of Kessel’s salary, Tyler Biggs, Tim Erixon, and their second round pick in 2016. The salary retention definitely stings, as many believed that no retention would have been required when considering Kessel’s salary appears to be lower relative to other wingers of a comparable age who have similar elite production (such as Patrick Kane) and thus can be considered at the very least, market value. While Biggs and Erixon were first round draft picks, their ceilings are both considerably low. Biggs projects to be a 3rd/4th line player, while Erixon projects to be a 2nd/3rd pairing defensemen. In addition, the second round pick was originally acquired by Toronto from Pittsburgh in exchange for Daniel Winnik at the 2015 NHL Trade Deadline. This pick is likely to be a late 2nd round pick and has approximately a 5-10% chance of becoming a top-6 NHL player, with roughly a 30% chance of becoming an NHL player.

Analyzing Toronto’s side of the deal: Kasperi Kapanen, Scott Harrington, a first round pick (lottery protected), and third round pick in 2016



Kessel’s value as an elite offensive contributor has been established and additional components (15% salary retention, Biggs, Erixon, and a Pittsburgh’s 2nd round pick) of the deal have been discussed. The return the Leafs garnered for Kessel will now be assessed.

18-year old Kasperi Kapanen was the focal point of the return. Kapanen was a former first round pick and was considered the #1 European skater by NHL CSS rankings in his draft year (ahead of Leafs blue-chip prospect William Nylander). Kapanen owns a quick release and is considered a very creative, skilled player when he has the puck. While ranked highly going into the draft, his Draft +1 year has been hard to assess and make a judgement on due to Kapanen playing overseas in Europe. Playing in Europe makes it difficult for tools such as Player Cohort Success (PCS) and NHLe to evaluate production. While Kapanen has a low projected PCS (14.29% rate of making the NHL) and NHLe (8 points in Draft +1), these numbers are unlikely to accurately portray Kapanen’s actual production equivalent. Coupled with playing on a low scoring KalPa team, it’s fair to say that Kapanen’s numbers will be more accurate and representative of Kapanen’s ability when he comes over to play in North America. Until then, it’s difficult to assess his progression. Considering Kapanen’s high original draft ranking and skill, there’s definitely top-six upside to this prospect.

Defensemen Scott Harrington was drafted in 2011 and was a former second round pick. Harrington is much easier to analyze compared to Kapanen, largely because he has played in North America for the entirety of his junior career. While Harrington has a 23% chance of becoming an NHL player according to the analysis done by the Projection Project, his closest comparables are first and second pairing defensemen such as Ron Hainsey and Brooks Orpik. Using PCS, Harrington has a 33.54% chance of reaching 200 NHL games with notable comparables being Andrei Markov and Michalek. In sum, Harrington appears to be projected to have a ceiling of a top-four defensemen.

Finally, the Leafs received a first round pick (lottery protected) and a third round pick. While there are conditions to this selection, the Leafs will have either Pittsburgh’s 2016 or 2017 first round pick assuming that the Penguins make the playoffs in one of these two years. Not only will Pittsburgh likely make the playoffs, but it’s reasonable to assume that they will be among one of the best teams in the league considering their quartet of superstars (Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, and Letang). As mentioned in past articles, studies have been done in regards to the value of a prospect drafted in the 20-30 pick range, with these prospects tending to have between a 5-25% chance of becoming a top four defensemen or a top-six forward (depending on where the pick lands within this range). The third round pick has far low odds, but it can still be considered an important piece to help rebuild the Leafs by building through the draft.

Comparable Trades

Comparing the trade to previous trades for top-line wingers displays the approximate market value of a player of Kessel’s stature and can help determine whether or not the Leaf’s received equal value. Past trades include Philadelphia trading Jeff Carter to Columbus, Anaheim trading Bobby Ryan to Ottawa, and Columbus trading Rick Nash to New York. All players were similar in age when traded (Nash was 30, Carter 26, Ryan 25, and Kessel now is 27) and were perennial 30+ goal scorers at the time. Kessel has the highest cap hit of this cohort, but also has higher production.

It’s very apparent from viewing past deals for players similar to Kessel that the Leafs did not get a return that is comparable to that received by New York, Philadelphia or Ottawa for trading away their prized assets. While Kapanen is definitely an intriguing prospect, it’s fair to say that other comparable deals either 1) received a more promising prospect (i.e. Vorachek) or 2) received numerous NHL-ready forwards, as seen in the Nash deal. In addition to this, all three comparable deals received picks that were in the range of 8th-19th overall. Depending on where Pittsburgh finishes in the standings will determine the placement of their first round selection for Toronto, but the pick will be no lower than 16th considering the lottery protection of this pick. Finally, no retention and no further picks/prospects were included on the deals for Nash, Carter, or Ryan, compared to the retention, picks and prospects in the Kessel deal. While the Leafs received valuable assets in the Kessel deal in regards to Kapanen, Harrington, and a first round pick, it can be inferred from the Kessel’s elite production and the difference in comparable trades for top-line wingers that the Leafs did not receive good enough value in the Kessel deal.

In spite of this rather bleak conclusion, it’s important to note the variables around the Kessel deal when assessing if the return was good within the context that the deal was made. Kessel has a Limited No Trade Clause that reduced Toronto’s option of trading him to only eight teams, with most of these teams contenders and therefore tend to be financially cap-strapped. This scenario made it difficult to move Kessel with so few suitors to choose from and quickly created a buyer’s market. By no means does this fact defend the Kessel trade and management’s impatience to find a better deal, but it provides an explanation of the context that may have limited the return the Leafs received.

Concluding Thoughts

Toronto did not receive adequate value when they traded Kessel to Pittsburgh. While Kessel has defensive deficiencies, he more than makes up from these deficiencies by being an elite point producer. While Kapanen, Harrington, and a potential first round pick has good value and can enhance Leaf management’s efforts to rebuild, comparing this deal to past deals for top-line wingers shows that Toronto did not receive comparable value. While the value was not as good as most thought it would be, it’s important note the constricting variables (i.e. Kessel’s Limited No Trade Clause) around the Kessel deal when assessing if the return.

Thanks for reading and please feel free to leave a comment below or on twitter. I can be reached at @tmldanalytics.