Pilot 23: Decoding the German elections

The doom and gloom reactions to the 2017 German elections has been a little premature.

First of all, we don’t yet really know what will happen. Until we know what the government will look like, we won’t know the true impact of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) result.

Coalition talks will take a good few weeks. There are two main options: Grand or Jamaika. Both have difficulties.

A Grand Coalition has made up two of Merkel’s three governments. It means both main parties — Merkel’s CDU/CSU and the centre-left SPD, this time of Martin Schultz — form the government together. This time, the SPD are reluctant to go back into power as the junior partner. As with the Liberal Democrats in 2016, spending time as the subservient part of the governing coalition hurt the SPD — this election is their worst ever result. In addition, if the SPD go in that officially makes AfD the leader of the opposition which, under German law, gives them more status in Parliament. For reasons both internal and external, then, another Grand Coalition seems unlikely.

A Jamaika coalition would be between the CDU/CSU, the FDP and the Greens. The problems here lie with the FDP. They are against further EU integration and don’t have any senior politicians with experience of national politics — in the last election they didn’t enter parliament. The FDP were last in a ruling coaltion in Merkel’s 2nd term. As is traditional for the junior member, they were given the Foreign Office but had run on a largely tax and finance focused platform. Unable to pass any of their manifesto pledges, they were wiped out in the 2013 federal election. This time around, they are likely to demand the Treasury.

The Jamaika Coalition is potentially bad news for Macron’s grand plans. In his barnstorming speech this week he called for a massive EU integration: a Eurozone budget, an EU finance ministry, European border police, and monetary fund. This is a hugely ambitious vision. It relies on Germany and France leading the EU forwards, boldly, together.

Macron would much rather see the Grand Coalition return, even if it elevates the AfD’s role in German domestic politics.

Examining the AfD surge

The AfD, a far-right nationalist party with strong anti-immigrant messaging, did better than expected. It is worthwhile pointing out where it did well: all the places with the fewest foreigners.

Links: Wo die meisten Ausländer leben. Rechts: Wo die AfD die meisten Stimmen bekam. pic.twitter.com/0qfVEnNLN6 — Ali Utlu (@AliCologne) September 25, 2017

“Left - where most foreigners live. Right, where the AfD got the highest share of the vote”

I think it is important not to get too carried away here. There are still a lot of great things sitting below the surface of German politics.

“Germany’s exports and imports are booming, wages are rising, unions are content and coöperative, and the economy is near full employment. The 2008 global financial crisis is long forgotten. And an influx of almost a million migrants and refugees in recent years has been accommodated, while public budgets remain in the black.”

This is from a piece by Helmut Anheier, former Dean of the Hertie School of Governance, for Project Syndicate. Despite a series of crises, Germany under Merkel has thrived — as I said last week, that’s one of the reasons her opponents find it so hard to beat her in elections. The rise of the AfD is relatively minor in comparison to Merkel’s previous obstacles.

The AfD are unlikely to achieve a lot because of their toxicity (even to themselves: their party leader shortly after the historic results were announced). Nobody will work with them.

Around 13% of the vote went to the AfD, which is the first time a far-right party in post-war Germany. But, the remaining parties are all, broadly, centrist. 87% of the electorate backed centrist, mainstream parties. As my co-hosts pointed out, if you just read British coverage of this, the focus on AfD would give you the impression that they’ve just won 30% of the vote.

Yes, the AfD quadrupled its vote, but that’s from a small baseline. They did not hit the 5% threshhold to enter Parliament in the previous election. It will likely be more challenging to grow from here — the refugee crisis is far from over, but Germany will not see an influx of another million Syrians in the next few years.

In his Project Syndicate piece, Anheier also sounds a warning to that bloc of centrist parties: they cannot get away with such modest agendas forever. At some point, the centre needs to inspire, not just reassure.

“One can only wonder what world Germany’s political class think they are living in. The mainstream parties’ platforms all indicate a willingness to sit on their laurels and enjoy the fruits of past labour, while putting nothing in place for the future. This is ironic, given that Germany regularly chastises other countries to reform, singling out Italy for its unruly public finances, for example, or Ireland for its wayward tax system.”

Merkel has been in power a long time, yet has remained a fundamentally reactive politician. Perhaps this is a symptom of world crises she has found herself managing. There is a lot of positive things to be said for this but, eventually, somebody in German politics will have to look forwards. Right now, it seems like the only person doing that is French. And that doesn’t sit well with anybody.

Be sure to subscribe to Connected & Disaffected on Soundcloud. You can also follow us on Twitter or on Facebook.

Please recommend us to your politics nerd friends and/or like and share our posts!