(AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais) Republicans Fear 2008 Meltdown

Republicans across the country are warning that increasing public discontent toward President Bush, the Iraq war and the GOP brand in general threatens to send the party's 2008 campaign planning into a tailspin.

Already, the problems are having tangible effects. Some of the party's top recruits in key races from Colorado to Florida are refusing to run for Congress. Business executives -- the financial backbone of the GOP -- are sending more and more money to Democrats. Overall Republican fundraising is down sharply from the same time frame during the past two presidential elections.


Then there are the voters.

Polling data released this month confirm what GOP officials are picking up anecdotally: Swing voters are swinging away from Republicans at high velocity. Most alarming to GOP strategists is a new survey by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center that found 50 percent of those interviewed consider themselves a Democrat or leaning that way; only 35 percent tilt Republican.

"People are concerned and worried about the party's prospects," said Steve Duprey, former chairman of the New Hampshire GOP and a backer of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the White House race.

"There's a certain nervousness I hear that if the war is going badly and we're still in this intractable fight between a Democratic Congress and President Bush about the course of the war, we may have a tough time."

Duprey's comment echoes the concern among many Republican operatives: Each of the multiple bad trends facing the party tends to reinforce the others, potentially creating a dynamic in which it will be nearly impossible for the party to improve its position before next year's elections.

How to restore the GOP brand? "That's what we're struggling with, honestly," said Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.). "Do you positively brand yourself, or do you negatively brand the other side?"

Bush's low approval ratings are an illustration. Some experienced GOP campaign strategists believe that there is virtually no chance that a Republican can succeed Bush if his approval ratings remain mired in the 30s. The Democratic strategy of investigating administration scandals and policy blunders is calculated to achieve exactly that goal -- and the burgeoning controversy over the firings of eight U.S. attorneys has given Democrats in Congress yet another inviting target.

To make matters worse, as long as Bush is unpopular, Republicans on the Hill -- already frustrated at what they perceive as White House indifference to lawmakers' political problems -- are less inclined to defend Bush from attacks.

This painful cycle has some high-level Republicans braced for the likelihood that last fall's rout, in which Democrats won the House and the Senate, may be a prelude to a 2008 knockout that would leave the GOP without control of Congress or the White House for the first time since 1994.

To underscore how tough things are for the GOP, Bill Pascoe, a Chicago-based Republican consultant with Urquhart Media, said "there are Republican consultants scouting state legislators for 2014. That's how far the long-range planning is going."

Why 2014? Because that would be the second midterm of a Democratic president.

Political fortunes, of course, can change rapidly based on events and the candidates picked for the presidential ticket. Yet even the most relentlessly optimistic of Republicans sound skeptical.

Ken Mehlman, the former Republican National Committee chairman who now gathers political intelligence for the Akin Gump lobbying firm, said the GOP is in need of urgent rehabilitation, which won't come unless it can defy long-term voting patterns.

"We have to win back the confidence we lost in '06 from swing voters and ticket splitters," said Mehlman. "The way you do that, in part, is by being a party that is less reliant on white guys and expands its support among Hispanics, among African-Americans."

Congressional Republicans, however, are not focused on expanding minority support. In fact, they are pursuing an immigration deal that Mehlman has warned could poison the GOP with Hispanic voters.

History offers even more reason for worry. Only once in the past half century has a party won the White House three times in a row (Reagan-Reagan-Bush). And when a party loses the White House, it often loses congressional seats, too. "That is obviously a formidable challenge for us," said Mehlman.

Already, there are some troubling trends on the money front, according to GOP fundraisers and Federal Election Commission documents. First, corporate PACs gave almost 60 percent of their money to Democrats in the first two months this year, a striking shift away from Republicans, according to the nonpartisan Political Money Line. Republicans snagged about two-thirds of corporate PAC money over the previous four years.

Overall GOP fundraising for the three major campaign committees was also down during January and February. The RNC, National Republican Senatorial Committee and National Republican Congressional Committee raised a combined $30 million this year, compared with $40 million during the same period in 2005 and $38 million in 2003.

At the same time, Democratic fundraising surged, narrowing the GOP's money advantage.

Two GOP lobbyists said Capitol Hill Republicans, fearful of another bloody election cycle, are pushing hard to get donations from companies before month's end to discourage Democrats from expanding the battlefield.

"There has been some frustration out there, but as the consequences of a Democratic majority sink in to the base, they will respond, I think, with fervor," said Florida Rep. Adam Putnam, a member of the GOP leadership team.

What's not clear is whether frustration among GOP activists, especially religious conservatives, will translate into less grass-roots assistance for Republican candidates in next year's campaigns.

"Our activists are disappointed with federal spending, disappointed we lost Congress," said South Carolina GOP Chairman Katon Dawson.

Like Dawson, Michigan GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis argues that some conservatives are trying to put the 2006 debacle and the Bush presidency behind them. "There are a lot of people turning to the future already," Anuzis said

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty said, however, that the painful lessons of 2006 have yet to be learned. "I don't think there has yet been a full appreciation for what just happened" in the November elections, Pawlenty said. "There remains an element of denial about the message that was just sent and the reality we face."

Even in a neutral political environment, 2008 would be a very tough year for Republicans, especially in the Senate.

Simply put, the Republicans are defending more seats than the Democrats -- 21 Republican seats are up this cycle, while only 12 Democrats plan to seek reelection. So the playing field automatically is in the Democrats' favor. Only one of those Democrats, Sen. Mary L. Landrieu of Louisiana, is likely to face a serious challenge at this point.

Republicans could face a tough challenge in New Hampshire, Minnesota, Maine and Oregon, where a recent poll showed incumbent Gordon Smith (R) trailing by several points.

The Senate outlook could get worse for the GOP in coming months. Party officials said they are concerned Sens. Pat Roberts (Kan.), Pete V. Domenici (N.M.) and John Warner (Va.) all might retire. In all three states, Democrats could pick up seats that have been securely in GOP hands for years. (UPDATE: Despite such concerns, Roberts said Jan. 26 that he'll run again and his staff reiterated that again Thursday.)

Republicans are also having trouble landing the strongest candidates in key House races. In Florida's 22nd Congressional District, for instance, the top three prospects have all refused overtures to challenge first-term Rep. Ron Klein, a top GOP target.

In New York's 19th District, the GOP is having trouble luring a blue-chip candidate to challenge Rep. John Hall in the Republican-tilting district.

"Obviously, we'd prefer the environment to be a little different, but the things that count are the votes we're having" to motivate voters, said National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.). He said the presidential contest could turn things around for the GOP and help attract more top-shelf candidates.

Said former New Hampshire representative Charlie Bass, now president of the moderate Republican Main Street Partnership: "I don't think Republicans would do any better today than we did last November, but we have another year and a half."

Josh Kraushaar, Patrick O'Connor and Kenneth P. Vogel contributed to this report.