Summit 2 - Final Day Projections

26 Oct 2019

If you haven’t read it yet, the projections before the tournament started can be found here

With the last day of Summit upon us, all groups are done and so is the first round of winners. Here’s the updated placement probabilities.

1 2 3 4 6 8 12 16 MkLeo 0.56192 0.69597 0.77437 0.83369 0.91497 0.95829 1.00000 1.0 Nairo 0.13316 0.36447 0.53241 0.64623 0.77535 0.82142 1.00000 1.0 Samsora 0.10992 0.25555 0.38772 0.51209 0.75025 0.88690 1.00000 1.0 Marss 0.05523 0.12877 0.20313 0.27434 0.50719 0.71726 1.00000 1.0 Maister 0.04393 0.18494 0.37854 0.54218 0.81537 0.92035 1.00000 1.0 Light 0.04111 0.15939 0.29363 0.40012 0.56998 0.65115 1.00000 1.0 Dabuz 0.03987 0.11292 0.20013 0.29478 0.56593 0.77786 1.00000 1.0 Tweek 0.01231 0.06834 0.12666 0.26101 0.39608 0.50528 0.87161 1.0 MuteAce 0.00118 0.01208 0.05413 0.10062 0.30656 0.57121 1.00000 1.0 zackray 0.00096 0.01060 0.02541 0.05305 0.14515 0.29442 0.79093 1.0 ESAM 0.00029 0.00376 0.01039 0.02529 0.08268 0.22970 0.61369 1.0 Tea 0.00011 0.00282 0.01130 0.04750 0.12658 0.47865 0.84784 1.0 VoiD 0.00001 0.00034 0.00173 0.00594 0.02723 0.10554 0.38631 1.0 Leffen 0.00000 0.00003 0.00027 0.00209 0.00819 0.02215 0.12839 1.0 RFang 0.00000 0.00002 0.00017 0.00082 0.00660 0.03003 0.20907 1.0 Armada 0.00000 0.00000 0.00001 0.00025 0.00189 0.02979 0.15216 1.0

What Changed #

Nairo With a fortunate bracket as a reward for gaining first in his group (and underperformances from Leo and Tweek in groups), Nairo is now the favorite for getting second.

Marss Even with an incoming match against Leo, Marss resurges to a 10% win probability

Void Void… joins the ranks of the 4th seeds? He has an extremely unfavorable bracket from here on out.

The 4th seeds MuteAce with an upset against ESAM gains life. On the other side, while Leffen has an extremely unfortunate match coming up (which gives him the lowest probability to make the top 12), he actually has the highest chance among them (besides MuteAce) to make 2nd.

Tweek With unexpected group results, Tweek faced Leo immediately. Despite being in the losers bracket, he still has a respectible 1% #1 probability, and is in fact higher than MuteAce despite losing his first match



What Didn’t Change #

Leo His probabilities increased by roughly %2 across the board. So, nothing much.



In essence, being in the losers bracket sucks in terms of your chances to win the whole tournament. Who would’ve thought? The only player in the losers bracket who has a better chance to win the whole thing is Tweek, who edges out MuteAce.

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