You have probably seen a hundred articles before with similar titles and they usually end up endorsing a candidate. This is not one of those arguments. I am not endorsing any of the candidates on offer this election and this isn’t an attempt at character assassination. But there is a reason why I would rather have Clinton lose: the increased possibility of far-right nationalism democratically electing a fascist leader in 2020.

The bogeyman: Donald Trump

On the surface, a Trump Presidency truly looks terrifying. He is vulgar, crass and divisive in his rhetoric. There is legitimate and reasonable fear that a Trump Presidency would cause irreparable harm to the United States and make us an international laughing stock. He does not shy away from speaking when he should not and tends to fight rather than collaborate with leaders (even within his own party). But those very qualities are what would undo the frightening prospects of Trump and prevent him from setting the world on fire.

A President is largely powerless to enact legislation without a House and Senate to back their legislation. President Obama was voted in with a popular mandate and had Democratic control of both chambers of the 111th Congress. By the time the 2010 Midterm election had rolled around, President Obama had put through “congressional gridlock” with a GOP that had continually filibustered a President that they did not want to work with. In the event of a Trump victory, he would be subjected to that same type of check on his power. Even with a Republican House and Senate, a President Trump would have less power to effectuate changes than even Obama did. Whereas Obama had the unified support of his own party, Trump is divisive having clashed with numerous GOP leaders already. He would need to begin collaborating with people inside his own party and work with Democrats to avoid being filibustered, meaning that legislation such as the Trump Wall would be dead on arrival. It would require Trump to collaborate with both sides of the aisle, which goes counter to who he is.

More importantly, a Trump Presidency could improve the sociopolitical landscape of America. The fear of what a Trump Presidency could do with a Super-Majority could catalyze apathetic Democratic and Millennial voters to finally participate in midterm elections at the scale that Republican voters do. People will want to stop him, and there will be mass uproar about the way the DNC allowed it to happen. The 2018 midterm might create cause for Democrats, especially millennials, to vote to give the Democrats a house/senate majority to prevent Trump from sinking the country. By 2011, Obama had lost his congressional control because of a historically low voter midterm turnout for Democrats. By 2019, Trump could very well be facing a Democratic supermajority. A Trump Presidency could have the unexpected effect of reinvigorating apathetic voters that currently treat our democracy as a once every four-year affair.

Although I find the midterm election scenario less probable (given that Democrats have historically low turnout), the 2020 election will be a different case. If the Democrats put up a candidate that is well liked (Sanders, Warren, Newsom for instance), then Trump would not have “crooked Hillary” as his scapegoat. Clinton is in many ways as vilified by Republicans as Trump is by Democrats, a reality that has allowed Trump to maintain a lot of voters that see the Clintons as the worst of establishment politics. Whether justified or not, these voters believe that they simply cannot bring themselves to vote for Clinton; something that the DNC can take note of when picking their next nominee. A 2020 election against Trump could be a landslide victory for Democrats. That turnout would also translate to more votes for down-ticket Democrats, giving them a stronger shot and enacting the promising changes that Republicans have stopped Obama from making.

The Sum of All Fears: Hillary Clinton

At the time of writing, Hillary Clinton is more than likely to become the next President of the United States. There is no question, in my mind, that she is more qualified than Trump to handle the position. But this is not about my opinion on either candidate, and whichever way you cut it, her victory on November 9 will in large part be due to how inept Trump is. She will have the advantage of getting support from many moderate Republicans who are part of the #NeverTrump contingency. But it’s important to note that this voting bloc are unlikely to vote down-ticket for Democrats, meaning a Clinton victory is not going to guarantee a Senate and House majority for Clinton; something she will desperately need.

The reality is that Hillary Clinton will have two years to prove her doubters wrong and keep her base engaged. For the 2018 midterm election, President Clinton will not have the threat of a Trump Presidency to encourage voters to turn out for Democrats. On the other hand, Republicans will have a renewed cause to stop a President that they see as a criminal and the midterm election is a way to ensure that she will be without the congressional backing to pass any meaningful legislation. The GOP would see stopping Clinton as the way to suppress her support and make her a one term President. They attempted this and failed miserably with President Obama, but Clinton is not Obama. Obama had the unified support of his party and won his first term with unanimous support from liberals and millennials, appeal that Clinton simply does not have. More importantly, the national dialogue on how we almost ended up with the host of The Apprentice as President would be swept under the rug. The Clinton victory is already being talked about as breaking a glass ceiling, not unlike the same glass ceiling that President Obama crashed through. However, the discontent fueling Trump’s platform will remain and potentially grow, providing fertile ground for the rise of another populist candidate.

Even in the unlikely event that the Democrats can hold onto both chambers of Congress during the Midterm, any advantage would be gone by the end of the 2020 election. If Clinton wins, the GOP would have no choice but to reorganize. They will have taken note from the DNC and prevent fringe candidates such as Trump from winning the primaries, and they will push forward a candidate who is ideologically acceptable (i.e. someone that does not repulse voters as Trump has). A 2020 Republican ticket with someone such as John Kasich would provide Republican leadership and voters with a candidate that they can unify around. There would be no #NeverKasich contingent. Republican enthusiasm for POTUS would also translate to down-ballot votes. On the Democratic side, Clinton and DNC will lack a Trump-style bogeyman to inspire her base to vote. A less than stellar first term will also renew the discontent of progressive voters who would be more apathetic to participating in 2020. Her turnout will be weaker against a GOP candidate that is very likely to be stronger.

The scarier scenario is one where the GOP nominates a highly capable and shrewd far-right candidate who can appeal to the masses through nationalist sentiments. Don’t get me wrong, Trump is an embarrassment and a joke. But with Donald Trump, we have the convenience of knowing what he is thinking, because he lacks the cunning and discipline to avoid saying the wrong thing. But he doesn’t have the type of organized support needed to turn authoritarian. Even if he wanted to play dictator, Trump does not even have his own party behind him. Now imagine someone like Trump, that doesn’t have the public scandals that he does, and is organized the way the Clinton campaign is. A far-right populist candidate that appears “Presidential” without raising the alarms and scrutiny that Trump has.

With a Clinton Presidency, the risk of such a scenario increases. One misstep from her and she gives the far-right a stronger reason to come back. And this time she won’t be able to use the same fear-mongering rhetoric to win, because people will remember the rhetoric leveraged at Trump and say “that’s what you said last time, and we aren’t going to listen to you this time.”

That is how you get an actual fascist democratically elected. The consequence of hyperbole and short-term thinking. And the Democrats won’t see it coming until it’s too little too late.