June 1, 2017

Hungarian-Serbian Border Incident

This scenario assumes that tensions between Hungary and Serbia during the next couple of years due in part to Hungary’s support for the independence and acceptance into the European Union of Kosovo.

A few weeks before this scenario takes place, Hungarian radicals murdered several Serbs living and working in the border town of Tompa. Despite Hungary’s efforts to bring these criminals to justice, little progress has been made in the case. The Serbian government has used the incident and the lack of progress by the police to excite anger and outrage, going so far as to demand “compensation” from Hungary.

This scenario also assumes that, by 2017, Serbia has replaced its aging MiG-29s with newer and more capable aircraft, specifically the late generation MiG-29M2s exported to countries such as Syria.

*** FLASH *** FLASH *** FLASH *** ATTN: Commanding Officer, Kecskemet Air Base INTEL/SITREP Negotiations with Serbia over the murders of Serbian nationals in Tompa have broken down. Serbia has moved troops to the border and we are concerned they are preparing to launch a retaliatory strike against Tompa. ENEMY FORCES A battalion-strength force with armored and infantry units is believed to be on the border, only a few miles from the town of Tompa. Serbia recently purchased several MiG-29M2s. These are highly capable aircraft and you should use caution if it becomes necessary to engage them. FRIENDLY FORCES Your base is currently home to a squadron of JAS 39 Gripens. A company of mechanized infantry, an artillery battery, and supporting units are on patrol near Tompa and are chopped to your command. MISSION 1. Conduct patrols of the region surrounding Tompa. 2. Protect Tompa from attack. EXECUTION Do not initiate attacks against Serbian units unless: A) Serbian units attack Tompa or some other target in Hungary B) Serbian units cross the border into Hungary in a manner that appears to have hostile intent (as opposed to simply crossing the border by accident) or C) Your forces are attacked If any of these conditions occur, you are free to return fire and to eliminate any Serbian forces in your area of operation that appear to threaten Tompa or other civilian or government targets. COMMAND AND SIGNAL Command: Kecskemet Air Base Signal: EMCON State C (Unrestricted Emissions) Good luck.

Always a good idea to take stock of one’s assets. I have a few platoons of motorized infantry (BTR-80s) near Tompa at the Serbian border. At Balotaszallas, 8.5nm to the north, more infantry, some T-72 tanks, and a battery of 152mm artillery. I scope the relief layer: this part of Hungary is a flat, occasionally forested plain. No particular terrain features to worry about.

I have 12 JAC 39C Gripen based at Kecskemet. I’ve always liked Saabs—the cars and the aircraft—and I think the Gripen is one of the more handsome modern jet fighters. Four of these are ready for action, armed with two IRIS-T infrared-guided missiles with off-boresight capability and four long-range radar-guided AMRAAM missiles each. The remaining eight will be ready in an hour, carrying two IRIS-T, a pair of Paveway bombs and a Litening laser designation pod. Alright, cool.

0730 Local – I launch two Gripens, Oscar 1 and 2, keeping the remaining two anti-air Gripens on standby. I decline to assign a mission to them, as I have few enough units to manage that I think I will be able to direct them manually. Radar is detecting bogeys over Austria. 40,000ft, 248 knots. Civil aviation. Do not kill. This will be a recurring theme in this scenario as civilian traffic crisscrosses Hungary.

0733 – Oscar 2 detects two bogeys to the south at a range of about 120nm. They are emitting with N010-M Zhuk radars, which is the type installed on the Serbian MiG-29M Fulcrum that are mentioned in the briefing. It is tempting to mark them as hostile now, but I will wait for them to violate Hungary’s border or otherwise demonstrate hostility. I have two Gripens monitoring them now, at range.

0738 – Radar detects an aircraft traveling west at 460kts out of Bulgaria. I find myself wondering if 460kts is a suspicious airspeed, or normal for civil aircraft. Quick reference check confirms large jetliners can hit about Mach 0.8, which is just about 460 knots.

0740 – Those MiG-29s are looking awfully determined to violate my airspace. They’re closing in at 48kts. My Gripens’ patrol is on an eastward tack, and turn southwest for an intercept, going to afterburner. Y’all getting too close.

0742 – The MiG-29s are at the edge of the coverage of the surface-to-air Mistral missiles covering my motorized infantry at the Serbian border. Sorely tempted to flag them as hostile and hit them with a MANPAD, but I don’t want to fire the first shot in this scenario until hostile intent is indisputably clear.

Moments later MiGs are over the border and accelerating. You cross into someone else’s airspace, okay—maybe it’s an accident. You cross into someone else’s airspace and then hit the afterburner? Yeah, that’s not gonna play. I mark them hostile. Moments later they’re strafing Tompa.

My Gripens are still far away; I should have sprinted them right to the border instead of holding them back like this.

0743 – After peppering Tompa with cannon fire, the MiGs have turned south and are headed for the Serbian border. Looks like Oscar 1-2 are late for the action. Rather than send them into Serbian airspace chasing the MiGs, I have them loiter above Tompa. I like to think it’s good for local morale.

0745 – My motorized rifle platoons detect armor south of the Serbian border. It’s closing in. I order my infantry into a position better suited to stop the advance, and command the tanks and artillery around Balotaszallas to move south in support.

0747 – One of those MiG-29 has turned back in the direction of the border and is looking for trouble. I order Oscar 1-2 to engage, and they fire a pair of IRIS-T at the Serbian fighter from a range of about 12nm. This seems strange to me, as this seems like a situation where an AMRAAM would be favorable.

I watch as the MiG-29 detects the incoming missiles and cranks away, dropping flares. Both IRIS-T miss, and my Gripens fire AMRAAMS now at a range of 8.5nm. This time the MiG takes a hit and goes down in flames.

JAS-39C Gripen meets MiG-29M2 Fulcrum-C

0750 – The other MiG-29 has turned north, too, though it is still deep within Serbian territory. My Gripens fire at it from within Hungarian airspace. Now the MiG-29 stagger-fires four missiles in return. Chaff and jammers fail to dissuade my AMRAAMs. The MiG is hit and killed. Moments later my Gripens evade four AA-12 Adder missiles in quick succession. I exhale finally.

As this drama is unfolding, Serbian armor is crossing the border near Tompa. I don’t know how capable my motorized rifle platoons will be against Serbian armor, and it’ll be another 40 minutes before any of my Gripens are ready with air-to-ground strike loadouts.

0753 – Radar picks up on two more probable MiG-29s headed north, widely spaced. Hey guys, you’re not going to stand a chance against the Gripens if you give them time to double up on you. Just sayin.

I notice that I’m down to 2 IRIS and 4 AMRAAM between my two Gripens. They will probably expend most if not all of these missiles on the next two intercepts. I get my other two air-intercept Gripens ready.

0754 – Missile fire from one of the MiGs. My Gripens respond with AMRAAMs at long range.

0755 – Two AA-10 Alamo missiles are sent astray by my Gripens’ jammers. The MiG is not so lucky, and eats an AMRAAM.

0757 – Another exchange of long-range missile fire. Oscar 2 takes a hit from an AA-10 Alamo. The MiG takes an AMRAAM hit seconds later, leaving Oscar 1 alone in the airspace above Tompa.

I order Oscar 1 to return to base, as Oscar 3-4 are already en route. I lament losing a jet, but I can live with a score of 4 MiG-29 for 1 Gripen.

0804 – Oscar 4 detects an airborne tanker passing through Hungarian airspace, coming more-or-less from Bulgaria. I’m a little confused by this, as I thought air tankers were exclusively a military thing. Is it a cargo aircraft carrying fuel? That doesn’t make sense, does it? As long as it’s not refueling Serbian MiGs I am fine with this.

0805 – Incoming MiG-29, far to the south and still within Serbian airspace. A single AMRAAM is fired at it. MiG drops chaff and turns to present its beam to the missile, successfully evading it.

0806 – Two more AMRAAMs fired. The first misses its target, the second one scores a kill.

0818 – Another bogey has been coming up from Serbia for the past few minutes. It’s not radiating, but it is traveling north at 480 knots. I am suspicious, but reluctant to fire on it. All MiG-29 thus far have come in with their radars on.

I look up the Serbian Air Force to see what else it might be: a MiG-21, but few if any are currently active; a Soko J-22 Orao, also likely retired by the Serbs; or a Soko G-4 Galeb, cruising speed 297 knots—so probably not that either, unless it is traveling at its absolute maximum speed.

0819 – The bogey is descending from 40,000ft through 30,000ft now and still diving. Oscar 4 identifies it as hostile, so I order the Gripens to engage. My Gripens, and the unidentified aircraft, fire weapons at the same time. Sneaky bastard.

My Gripens turn aside, drop chaff and go to afterburner; the bogey is continuing to descend, apparently intending to run at low altitude. An IRIS-T vectors in on it and hits; ground forces report a MiG-29 shot down.

Close one.

Okay, the plan from now on is to shoot down everything coming out of Serbia.

0822 – Enemy ground forces have been at my border for a while now, but so far they appear reluctant to attack.

0830 – Eight Gripens are ready for strike mission. I review the briefing: “you are free to return fire and to eliminate any Serbian forces in your area of operation that appear to threaten Tompa” if any of the conditions initiating hostilities are met. That armor is a clear enough threat to warrant elimination. I launch a pair of Gripens, Oscars 11 and 12, each tasked with dropping a pair of Paveway II LGB on Serbian armor.

0842 – Oscar 11 releases first and is already RTB by the time the bombs hit, killing two M-84 tanks.

0844 – Oscar 12 has successfully delivered its weapons, too. That’s two armor platoons reduced to one tank. There’s a third armor formation east of Tompa; in light of the success of these last two strikes, I launch Oscar 10 to drop Paveways on the last armored group. If Serbia was hoping to overwhelm with armor, they had better have a Plan B.

0851 – Oscars 11 and 12 are safely back at Kecskemet and ready to re-arm. I look into the available loadouts: in addition to anti-air loadouts and laser-guided bombs, I can arm them with BK-90 Mjolner gliding cluster bombs (frowned upon by the international community), RB 15 anti-ship missiles (…probably unnecessary), AGM-65B Maverick guided missiles, and a SPK-39 recon pod. I am spoiled for choice. I arm them with air intercept loadouts (2 IRIS-T and 4 AMRAAM each).

0855 – Oscar 10 drops its Paveways. One of them malfunctions, but the other hits its target. The Gripen returns to base.

0915 – Oscars 3-4 are still loitering but no Serbian MiGs are in evidence, so I send them back to base to re-arm and refuel. I send Oscar 1 for a solo patrol. Oscar 10, having made it back to base, is ordered to re-arm with air-to-air missiles and a recon pod. The Serbian army also does not appear to be making any progress into Hungarian territory but I want to get a clearer picture of what’s happening on their side of the border. In light of the time to re-arm that will take until the afternoon.

0936 – Some of my troops detect some Serbian forces that have crossed the border. I send motorized infantry and some T-72s to cut them off. I also direct Oscar 5 to take off from Kecskemet and loiter near Tompa in case air support is needed.

0937 – A solitary Serbian M-84 tank fires on a formation of four Hungarian T-72s.

0938 – It does not end well for the Serbian tank.

My eastern flank, supported by BTR-80s and the T-72s, close in on Serbian recon infantry and open fire. To the west the M-84 that survived Oscar 12’s bombing run opens fire on my motorized infantry and takes out a BTR-80. I think I will direct Oscar 5 against this tank, since my T72s are slightly out of position to support these platoons.

Artillery fire is inbound from the south. I take note that I should use Oscar 10 to locate the battery and destroy it.

0940 – Serbian artillery has knocked out one of my platoons on the west flank.

0941 – Oscar 1 goes on a strafing run against what looks like a group of Serbian infantry. Two passes; two well-placed bursts of 27mm Mauser fire. Shortly after my T72s arrive on the scene and engage the remainder of them; the westernmost M-84 opens fire on my tanks. T-72s take damage but manage to eliminate the last M-84 on the western flank.

0944 – Oscar 5 drops its Paveways on the Serbian armor on my east flank and wipes them out.

0945 – More artillery, directed at my T72s. It is inaccurate, presumably because there is no infantry to spot for it.

0948 – Artillery fire against one of my motor rifle platoons destroys some BTR-80s. That battery is going to become very annoying. If only I could locate it.

0950 – I direct my forces to pull back from the Serbian border. As they do so, they detect enemy forces to the east of Tompa. They must have outflanked us unnoticed earlier. I command my T72s to go after them.

0955 – Firefight east of Tompa. The Serbs are outmatched and soon eliminated.

1000 – Oscar 1 is at Bingo fuel and returns to base; Oscars 3-4 are ready for patrol.

1012 – A group of Mi-8 Hip are detected heading for Tompa, and begin firing rockets at the town. My Gripens are still far away—I order them to hit the afterburner and head to Tompa supersonically.

1014 – The Mi-8s are still firing rockets when my Gripens drop in on them and blow them all out of the sky, first with missiles and taking out the last with a low-altitude gun pass.

The scenario ends abruptly on this note. Presumably Serbian forces have had enough, and elect to retreat their remaining forces.

We congratulate you on a successful mission. To you and to those under your command, we offer the thanks of a grateful nation. SIDE: Hungary =========================================================== LOSSES: ——————————- 1x JAS 39C Gripen 4x BTR-80 APC 1x T-72 Main Battle Tank EXPENDITURES: —————— 8x RB 98 IRIS-T [AIM-2000A] 15x RB 99 AMRAAM [AIM-120B] 8x Generic Chaff Salvo [8x Cartridges] 8x GBU-49/B Paveway II GPS/LGB [Mk82] 26x 125mm APFSDS-T 54x 14.5mm MG Burst [20 rnds] 56x 7.62mm MG Burst [20 rnds] 6x 27mm Mauser BK-27 Burst [30 rnds] 75x 12.7mm/50 MG Burst [10 rnds] 2x 125mm HE SIDE: Serbia =========================================================== LOSSES: ——————————- 6x MiG-29M2 Fulcrum C 9x M-84 Main Battle Tank 12x 7.62mm MG 5x Mi-8T Hip C EXPENDITURES: —————— 6x 30mm Gsh-30-1 Burst [30 rnds] 2x Generic Flare Salvo [3x Cartridges, Single Spectral] 9x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges] 4x AA-12 Adder A [R-77, RVV-AE] 11x AA-10 Alamo A [R-27R, MR SARH] 2x AA-11 Archer [R-73] 18x 125mm APFSDS-T 90x 122mm/38 HE 6x 125mm HEAT 5x 125mm HE 80x 7.62mm MG Burst [20 rnds] 192x S-5K 57mm Rocket 48x 12.7mm/50 MG Burst [20 rnds]

Triumph, final score: 350.

Fun, short scenario. It seemed a little easy, partly due to the Serbian side only sending two MiG-29 at a time up to a total of six. The helicopter attack would also have been much more of a problem if it had happened under the cover of some MiGs.

I had some infantry equipped with Mistral MANPADs and was not able to get them to fire at any aircraft, not even the Mi-8s which should have been an easy target. Not sure what was going on there.

Here, as in the last scenario I played through, infantry combat seems to happen too fast. Platoons knock each other out in a matter of a minute or two. I am no expert on modern warfare, of course, and CMANO is not intended to model ground forces to the level of detail seen in air and naval assets, so we are missing out low-intensity engagements and maneuvering and cover and entrenchment and all these other complexities. Regardless, the attrition level seems high.