In Iraq, if we do not back the government, then ISIS is likely to march into Baghdad — or Iran will intervene directly to prevent this, very likely triggering a general war across the Middle East. In Syria, as Vice President Joe Biden has admitted, parts of the so-called moderate opposition are not only militarily ineffective, but are often closely aligned with Al Qaeda — and since when did Al Qaeda become an acceptable U.S. ally? Therefore, we also need to recognize that if we help to destroy the existing Syrian government we are helping to create the probability of an ISIS victory. Russia’s view on this is also shared — in private — by large sections of the U.S. intelligence community.

The problem is that in both Syria and Iraq, it was to a very great extent the savage oppression of the governments based in Damascus and Baghdad that infuriated large sections of their Sunni populations and created the conditions for ISIS to take over the leadership of the Sunni resistance. Simply to restore the rule of the existing Syrian and Iraqi regimes over the whole of their territory would require prolonged and ferocious repression, leading to more waves of refugees and more Sunni Islamist revolts — revolts that would doubtless once more be backed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other Sunni states. Washington has realized this in the case of Syria, but not in the case of Iraq. Moscow, it seems, has not yet realized this in either case.

To create an effective strategy to defeat ISIS and Al Qaeda will require a radically new Western strategy, based on a new and truly international coalition backed by the United Nations. The first step toward this is to recognize — as an increasing number of American analysts have started to do — that the “Pax Americana” in the Middle East has now comprehensively failed, and that the United States has nothing to lose by seeking the help of Russia and other states to create an international solution.

The goal that we should be working toward is full military and political cooperation between the West and Russia in order to defeat ISIS and promote a postwar settlement. This settlement should involve the creation of fully autonomous areas in Sunni northern Iraq and eastern Syria, along similar lines to the present Kurdish region of Iraq and with full control over their internal affairs. This would require a combination of the mobilization of local Sunni forces against ISIS, with some degree of international military presence. It would have to involve both Syria and Iraq, because the ISIS-led revolts in these countries have effectively dissolved the frontier between them, and because a political solution in Syria is out of the question if ISIS continues to rule northern Iraq.