With Vancouver’s season long over and done with, we begin to turn our attention here at Canucks Army over to the next big event of the offseason: the NHL Entry Draft. Many of us here are of the opinion that the draft is the most important period of the season for all teams, seeing as it’s the time when each organization’s future is shaped in a significant way.

With that in mind, errors and missteps at the draft can have some very severe ramifications down the road. For example, would the Oilers have been the laughing stock they were if they’d done what Montreal had in 2007 and spent their first three picks on Ryan McDonagh, Max Pacioretty, and P.K. Subban rather than picking up Sam Gagner, Alex Plante, and Riley Nash? I think it’s pretty doubtful.

And with Corey Pronman releasing his final draft rankings yesterday (paywall warning), we figured that this is as good a time as any to look at three first-time draft eligible prospects that Jim Benning should treat with caution come draft day.

Brandon Carlo, D, Tri-City Americans

Similar to last year with the Jake Virtanen selection, the Canucks’ interest in the massive American defender seems to have been telegraphed to a degree. Certainly, there’s a lot to like with Carlo seeing as he’s 6’5, shoots right-handed, and has a decent scoring rate for a first-time draft eligible CHL defender. Still, like the argument for passing on Virtanen, passing on Carlo has less to do with Carlo not being good – he is good, and almost as good a bet to make the NHL as any U-18 prospect out there – and more to do with the fact that there will likely be better guys on the board at 23rd overall.

The package that Carlo brings to the table is certainly very tantalizing. After all, 6’5 defensemen that aren’t total pylons aren’t easy to find. ESPN prospect guru Corey Pronman notes that Carlo “has solid enough hockey sense” and “knows how to transition the puck,” which are sentiments echoed by WHL scout Cody Nickolet. Sportsnet’s Damien Cox also predicts that Carlo could be “the best stay-at-home defender in the draft,” for what that’s worth.

Carlo’s puck skills are a concern though, and Pronman notes that while mobile for a big guy, that for a big guy caveat is still important because his skating stride could use some work. When I watched Carlo this season, I wasn’t terribly impressed with his decision making on the breakout as he frequently elected for the tried-and-true Luca Sbisa method of mashing the puck off the glass, resulting in a lot of defensive zone time for his Tri-City Americans team, but hey, I don’t trust my eyes to paint a totally accurate picture, and there’s no way you can get a good feel for a play from two or three viewings anyways.

Even though there’s quite a bit Carlo does well at the CHL level, there are three primary concerns we would have with selecting him. First of all, he’s one of the very oldest players in this draft class, which does put him at a fairly significant advantage relative to his younger peers. Secondly, the Tri-City Americans were an absolutely terrible team this season, posting a WHL Western Conference worst 44.3% ShotsFor% in the first two periods of games (limiting to two periods controls for score effects somewhat), and while this isn’t Carlo’s fault, it doesn’t change the fact that Carlo was a large part of this and at least a little responsible. Finally, the guys Carlo projects similarly to at the NHL level are likely overvalued and represent a market inefficiency themselves.

MoneyPuck took a look at draft year comparables to Carlo early in the year and found that Carlo’s ceiling appeared to be guys like Bryan Allen, Cory Sarich, Jeff Schultz, and Braydon Coburn. Coburn’s obviously the best case scenario there, but I think even Coburn’s reputation precedes the player he is to a degree. More than likely, you’re looking at a high-end bottom pairing defender with Carlo unless he shows massive growth between now and the end of next season. Statistically, he poses roughly the same amount of risk as other CHL D that should be available by the time the Canucks step to the podium to draft, but he looks to have a significantly lower upside. There will be better options.

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Mitchell Stephens, C, Saginaw Spirit

The energetic Stephens somewhat surprisingly found himself all the way up to 23rd on Corey Pronman’s most recent draft rankings after a very strong showing at the World U-18 Championships with the bronze medal-winning Canadian squad. As team captain, Stephens played on a line with Mathew Barzal and finished with 5 goals and 5 assists in just 7 games, finishing 7th in tournament scoring, 5 points behind scoring leader and 2016-draft eligible Auston Matthews.

This is quite the rise to prominence for the small-ish two-way forward, seeing as Craig Button left him out of his top-100 list, and he’s rated 112th among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting Services. You should always be wary of fast risers in draft years, as most of the time it’s just a guy going on a hot streak at the right time rather than a material improvement in his game.

As with all prospects even rated by scouts, there are definite strengths to Stephens’ game that warrant NHL consideration. Per CHLStats.com, we’re fairly certain that Stephens played first-line minutes for the Saginaw Spirit this season which is a big positive for any first time draft eligible player, but Saginaw was also a pretty weak team. Pronman mentions Stephens’ skating as a definite strength, with his speed described as “high-end.” He plays a fast, energetic, and tenacious game, also contributing to Saginaw’s penalty kill this season.

The big red flag here is his scoring rate. With just a paltry 48 points in 62 games, Stephens’ age adjusted scoring rate of 0.69 points per game would be one of the lowest totals to be drafted in the first round in recent memory. It’s also most closely comparable to Philippe Paradis (currently a depth player with Syracuse in the AHL) and Carter Ashton (also currently a depth player with Syracuse in the AHL), and Stephens doesn’t even have the size and strength that those two had, standing at least 3 inches shorter than both if NHL CSS’ height data is to be believed.

Given that guys like Blake Speers and Dennis Yan could fall, Stephens likely shouldn’t be near the top of any team’s list at 23rd overall.

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Paul Bittner, W, Portland Winterhawks

The smooth-skating and hard-shooting American winger stands a lanky 6’4 and was one of the WHL’s top even-strength point producers among first-time draft eligible players. He trailed only Coquitlam’s Mathew Barzal and North Vancouver’s Jansen Harkins in ES Pts/GP this season, and was behind only Harkins and Jake DeBrusk in total ES output. Bittner also sat 3rd in ES goals among WHL first-time draft eligible players behind DeBrusk and Ryan Gropp.

Bittner’s skating is described as a huge plus, as Corey Pronman mentions that “his skating mechanics are very smooth, and he can be a handful on the rush due to his speed.” His hands and puck skills have never struck me as really high-end, but he has a rocket of a shot that he showed off at the most recent CHL top prospects game. Cody Nickolet has noted that he thinks the NHL team that drafts Bittner may see a Max Pacioretty-type power winger in him given his frame, mobility, and shot. That’s high praise for Bittner seeing as actual Max Paciorettys are staggeringly rare, and Pacioretty himself would’ve been a lottery pick in 2007 if teams thought he was actually going to be Max Pacioretty.

So, once again, Bittner is a quality NHL prospect just like the other guys listed above him. But seeing as this is an article on guys Vancouver probably shouldn’t draft, I’ll now go over the red flags surrounding Bittner which make him a risky pick, just like the other two guys outlined above.

Like Carlo, Bittner is much older than guys like Jansen Harkins or Anthony Beauvillier, being born in late 1996, so he has that physical advantage of just being slightly further along in his development. Adjusting for age, his scoring is still okay for a low-end first round prospect, but it’s far from great. 0.9 Age Adjusted points per game put him in roughly the same group as Anthony Stewart, Kyle Beach, and Zack Kassian, but Ryan Getzlaf is also in there. Granted, Getzlaf is a massive, massive outlier rather than a representative sample of what guys who score at that rate can become.

The big concern is that Bittner undoubtedly played in the single most favourable situation any forward in the WHL could have had: on the wing with Nic Petan and Oliver Bjorkstrand. The two diminutive WHL superstars lit the league on fire this season, with Bjorkstrand finishing the year as the first WHLer to score over one goal per game since Pavel Brendl did it in 1998-99, and Petan leading the league in assists per game once again.

Certainly, Bittner was put in a position to not only score, but score a ton – hell, just look at what Timo Meier accomplished with an elite offensive producer in Nikolaj Ehlers in Halifax this season. So it’s more than fair to pose the question if Bittner’s already not-earth-shattering offensive numbers were even a result of his abilities, or the abilities of his two superstar linemates.

For all Bittner’s physical tools, Corey Pronman has concerns about his on-ice intelligence, citing occasional lapses in judgement and bad reads. Cody Nickolet also mentions Bittner missing an element of competitiveness or “big body-ness” in his game, which should immediately remind Canucks fans of the ongoing battles they’ve had with Zack Kassian in this regard.

While there are certainly a lot of things to like about Bittner, there are also just too many red flags around him to draft him and pass on a number of guys that will likely still be available at 23rd overall.

All in all, the Canucks have put themselves in a position where finding a future above-average NHLer will be difficult, even in this draft. Still, certain guys pose larger risks than others, and certain guys’ upsides probably aren’t as high as the eye test alone would seem to tell you. The Canucks may have legitimate interest in Bittner and/or Carlo, but there are compelling reasons for avoiding the two towering juniors.

Perhaps the most compelling reasons aren’t the ones I’ve outlined above, however. When a draft pick is made, the opportunity cost of players you passed on must also be considered in the evaluation of that pick, and there will be plenty of more intriguing names on the board come 23rd overall. So stay tuned for the follow-up post to this one, where we look at a handful of players that the Canucks should be interested in when they step up to the podium.





