The current breakdown of Maine's Senate map

Now that the primaries have concluded in Maine, it’s time to look at the state with two competitive state legislative chambers for this fall. First we start in the upper chamber, where Republicans hold a very tenuous 18-17 majority. A gain of just one seat will give Democrats control of the chamber, so let’s look at the ratings chart:

Maine Senate Ratings

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R 1 (D) 2 (D) 13 (R) 3 (R) 22 (R) 7 (R) 11 (R) 16 (R) 6 (R) 14 (D) 20 (R) 15 (R) 30 (R) 17 (R) 34 (R) 18 (R) 18 (R)

Likely D: 1, 7, 14

1st District: Troy Jackson

This district is one of the most rural in all of Maine, encompassing the very tip of the state and it is represented by Democrat Troy Jackson. Jackson won this seat when it was open in 2016 by a narrow 52-48 margin. Like many Senate Districts in this state, SD-1 is an Obama/Trump seat, going from Obama +22 to Trump +8. That 2012 margin is what gives it a D+2 PVI for these fall elections. Jackson will be facing Allen Michael Nadeau, a former State Rep. who lost re-election in 2014. Given 2018 will be a better environment than 2016 for Dems and Trump won’t be at the top of the ticket, we make Jackson a heavy favorite for re-election.

7th District: Open (Langley)

Here is the best Democratic pickup opportunity, and the one likely to put them over the top, assuming they hold all their seats. Incumbent Republican Langley is retiring, exposing this D+7 seat to a R → D flip. Both sides have good candidates, a pair of State Reps. in Louis Luchini (D) and Richard Malaby (R). However, the partisan lean of this district is so substantial that Luchini is the clear favorite for a Dem flip. If Democrats aren’t flipping this seat, it would mean a very bad night for the state party.

14th District: Shenna Bellows

Bellows won this seat when it was open in 2016 in a messy but typically Maine three way race 43-38-19. I can’t really find what the politically ideology of the independent was, but he likely drew from both sides, as Trump won the district 47-45. However, Obama also won it by 12 and its D+1 PVI means Bellows is a favorite to win re-eleciton, even if she didn’t get a majority in 2016. Her opponent this time around is Matthew Stone, a local columnist who is not a top tier challenger. Thus, this fact as well as the partisan lean of the district puts SD-14 in Likely D.

Lean D: 2, 11

2nd District: Michael Carpenter

This seat is in northeastern Maine along the Canadian border and by PVI (R+12), it is tied for the reddest in the state. Yet it has a Democrat representing it, as Michael Carpenter beat his opponent 52-48 in 2016 to win the then open seat, even though Trump was simultaneously winning it by 30 points. That impressive performance combined with a better national environment makes Carpenter a favorite for re-election, but you can never be certain with that red of a district. The good news is that his opponent is a Some Dude. I can’t find any information on him on Google and the Maine Elections website lists his cash-on-hand as $0. That’s a good boost for Carpenter, so he should be able to win again even in such a red district, though Lean D feels appropriate.

11th District: Open (Thibodeau)

Here we have an open seat in an Obama/Clinton district that is currently held by a Republican, meaning that we figure Democrats are going to pick this one up. Both sides have a State Rep. in the race, Erin Herbig for Dems and Jane Crosby Giles for the GOP. At this point in time, Herbig has considerably more money than Crosby Giles and because this is an open D+1 seat, we expect this will Democratic pickup #2.

Tossup: 13, 16, 20, 30, 34

13th District: Dana Dow

This is one of the key battleground races, between an Incumbent Republican who won by a narrow margin in 2016 (52.5-47.5) and a high profile Democratic challenger who has the full support of the state party. The first candidate is the incumbent, Dana Dow. The second candidate is former Obama Department of Labor employee Laura Fortman, who seemed to have had a pretty bigwig position in that department. It’s a D+2 district, so both the partisanship of the district and the national winds will be working against another term for Dow in this Clinton/Obama district, but at this point in time it’s a pretty clear tossup.

16th District: Scott Cyrway

Cyrway flipped this D+3 seat in 2014 by beating an incumbent Democrat and then hung onto it by an 8 point margin in 2016. Trump won the seat by less than a point, though it was still a huge shift from Obama’s +19 point point margin here in 2012. Cyrway is a strong incumbent, running ahead of Trump but he’s obviously not invincible, as that 8 point margin shows. Democrats have former State Rep. Karen Kusiak in the race and she is credible enough to give Cyrway another run for his money, landing it as a tossup.

20th District: Open (Brakey)

Here’s an open seat in eastern Maine that Republicans are defending, since incumbent Eric Brakey is running for the US Senate. This is an R+1 seat that went from Obama +11 to Trump +7, not the biggest swing on this map but still substantial. Democrats have physician Ned Claxton, who seems good enough to flip the seat, while Republicans have State Rep. Eleanor Espling. The GOP has the better candidate here, but it’s not significant enough to warrant anything but a tossup.

30th District: Amy Volk

Midterm elections are always interesting when you have strong incumbents who have been able to win because of ticket splitting trying to survive a hostile national environment. Volk has held down this D+4 district located in Scarborough and Buxton since 2012, even though it was Obama +12 and Clinton +10. Her 2016 race was a comfortable 60-40 win but in 2014 she won by just 6 points and in 2012 by just 12 votes (!). Now she has to face former State Rep. Linda Sanborn, who was a very strong incumbent in her own right, term limited out in 2016. This should be a tough battle and is a key tossup race.

34th District: Open (Collins)

A D+1 Hillary/Obama open seat is normally an automatic Lean D, but there are enough wrinkles to put this down as a tossup. The Republican candidate is State Rep. Robert Foley, who is a strong candidate, while Democrats have former State Rep. Thomas Wright. Wright lost a funky, and once again very Maine, three way race in 2012, so he’s not quite as strong of a candidate as Foley, who is also quite well funded. However, partisan lean of the district and national environment makes me put it in the tossup column.

Lean R: 3, 6, 15, 17, 18, 33

3rd District: Open (Whittemore)

This is an R+5 open seat that Obama won by 5 but Trump won by 19 in northern/rural Maine. That makes it tricky, but not impossible for Democrats. Republicans have State Rep. Bradlee Farrin in the race and he’s perhaps one tier above Jeffery Johnson, the Dem candidate, in terms of candidate quality. Johnson is a non-profit director, who seems competent enough to make this interesting, but Farrin is the favorite at this time.

6th District: Open (Maker)

Here we have another open R+5 district, this one in the southwestern portion of the state. This one was Obama +2 and Trump +17, and the freshman incumbent is retiring for some reason. That fact has attracted some decent candidates into the race, notably Marianne Moore for the Republicans, who is the Mayor of Calais. On the other side, Dems have Christina Therrien, the Town Manager of Machias, also a pretty solid candidate. With two solid candidates, the partisan lean takes over and makes us put it down as Lean R.

15th District: Open (Katz)

SD-15 is yet another open seat, this one with an EVEN PVI, which would normally make it a tossup, but the candidate imbalance makes Republicans favorites to hold on. Matthew Pouliot is a State Rep. who is going to be awfully hard for Democrats to beat, though small businesswoman Kellie Julia is running a good enough race to make things interesting. I think she could win this, but I indicate that the GOP is favored here with the Lean R rating.

17th District: Open (Saviello)

This seat is very similar to the one above. It has a small Democratic lean, but a well known State Rep. as the GOP nominee is going to make it a little bit harder to try and flip the seat. This time that candidate is Russell Black, while Democrats have retired teacher Jan Collins. Nothing stands out about her negatively, but she is fighting an uphill battle against Black.

18th District: Lisa Keim

SD-18 was one of the seats Republicans flipped in 2016, when Lisa Keim beat an incumbent Democrat by a 56-44 margin. This was one of those heavy Obama → Trump swings, as Donald won it by 12 after Obama won it by 19, which helped put Keim over the top. Democrats have local businessman James Wilfong in the race, and he should be able to give Keim a run for her money, but she starts out as the favorite.

33rd Distrcit: David Woodsome

Woodsome won this district in 2014 by defeating then Incumbent John Tuttle and then defended the seat in 2016 by a comfortable 60-40 margin. In 2018, Tuttle is back for revenge against Woodsome and it will be interesting to see if he can do it after he lost by 18 points in 2014. Now the swing in national environment alone should eat into that margin (R+7 to D+5-10), but Tuttle still has some scandal issues that doomed him in 2014 that he’ll need to shake off, which is why I chalk it up as Lean R.

Likely R: 22

22nd District: Open (Mason)

Another open seat, though this one is a long shot for Democrats, given its R+7 PVI. Obama was able to win here in 2012, though Hillary got absolutely demolished, which is why it is an uphill climb. Republicans are running State Rep. Jeffery Timberlake, while Democrats are running Lois Kilby-Chesley, an educator and President of Maine Education Association. She is running a legitimate campaign, though Timberlake is a favorite in a pretty red seat.

Path to a Democratic Majority

This is pretty simple for Democrats. They only need to flip one seat, so if you hold all 17 of your seats, and I make them favorites to do that (only 3 are even competitive), it should be fairly easy to take a majority in the chamber. I have Dems as clear favorites in SD-7 and SD-11, with SD-13 and SD-30 probably tilting towards Democrats, alongside the other tossups. They only need one, but for safe measure, netting a few more flips would make legislating more comfortable.

The Bottom Line

The competitive seats needed for a bare minimum Democratic majority I have rated as either Likely D or Lean D, so the overall chamber rating is Lean D . The base estimate for Dem pickups is probably 2, though the higher end of the range is 7, which would be ugly for the Maine GOP. In some ways, the main goal for the Republicans should be to make sure it doesn’t get so out of hand that trying to re-take a majority in 2020 with a perhaps better environment is hard to do.

Chamber Rating: Lean D

Estimate if election were held today: D+2 to D+7