The fundamental flaw at the heart of attempts to develop a statistical model capable of predicting every game of a World Cup can be explained in one word: soccer.

Very few nations have won a World Cup. While there are surprises (and shocks) along the way, in the end, the winner eventually emerges from a very small pool. 76 teams have taken part in at least one World Cup. Brazil, Italy and Germany have been winners on 12 occasions, and at least one of the three has been present in 16 of the 19 finals played so far. On Sunday, that becomes 17 of 20 as Germany plays in a record 8th final. Argentina are seeking their fifth final, the Netherlands a fourth go at winning the cup for the first time. [Update: Argentina won]

Of the 12 times Germany has faced a host country in a major tournament, they’ve been victorious 10 times. Hardly a black swan.

Yet, attempting to build a statistical model to predict the result of every game in a World Cup is a futile exercise. At best such a model tells us who is the favourite in each game, and aims to quantify by how much. I am not convinced there is sufficient value in essentially saying so little. And, there is definitely no greater insight than that provided by betting markets.

Simplifying, these models mostly apply variables that are apt to US sports - especially, recent form, player performance and various offence- and defence-related metrics.

This approach doesn’t fit football for at least five reasons:

1. possession - the ability to keep the ball, and sense of position when the other team has the ball - plays a key role. The concept of possession as intended in football is fundamentally alien to most American sports.

2. football is fluid - teams attack and defend as a unit, they don’t take turns in playing attack and defence. Tactics are fundamentally different. You can play for a draw, you can score after one minute, or take 94 to score the only goal. The system is king.

(Photo: AP)

3. the type of chances created and the ability to convert these, and the ability to impede the other team from creating chances, matters more than “shots on goal” and “saves”. You can attack for 81 minutes, then along come Diego and Claudio Paul Caniggia.

(Photo: Ross Kinnaird/Empics Sport/PA Photos)

4. history - winning the World Cup requires a team with exceptional technical and tactical ability, combined with mental/psychological and physical strength. An exquisite cocktail that needs to peak as a unit over 7 games played in the course of a month (every four years) - no real room for error - there are surprises en route, but in the end very few teams have what it takes to lift the World Cup.

5. the beauty of sport is often encapsulated in moments that become lasting memories. Pirlo’s touch for Grosso, the left-back strikes, he becomes the unlikeliest of heroes. The ball in the opposite corner via a perfect trajectory. Germany defeated, for the first time ever, in the Westfalenstadion. Football is a game of moments even more so than most other sports. Zenga, the world’s best goalkeeper, miscalculating a cross, Diego’s hand and genius, Suarez’s incisors, a bad referee, a crossbar, Cerezo’s misplaced pass, North Korea v Italy in 1966, South Korea v Italy in 2002, how Zidane so differently used his head in 1998 and 2006, the moment last night in which 11 Brazilian heads collectively imploded in 76 seconds - moments change, and can decide, games. True in many sports, more so in football.

(Photos via BBC, Perenyi/Augenklic, expertfootball.com/)

Statistical models applied to predicting football results tell us what we already know - who is the favourite. Even though they assign probability to a favourite’s odds, for these models to be deemed significantly accurate - i.e. useful or insightful - the favourite needs to (almost) always win. An insight which reveals the obvious is pointless. Thus far there is no evidence to suggest that a statistical model can consistently predict games where the favourite doesn’t win. When it comes to football this matters greatly: in the Numbers Game (Anderson and Sally), the authors find that pre-game favourites win 54% of the time in football, compared with 60% to 70% in baseball, basketball and American football.

(Photo: Getty)

The complex beauty of football is in the fact the favourite doesn’t always get their way. When we think we’ve seen and know it all, Germany puts 7 past Brazil in a World Cup semifinal.

(Photo: ANP)