GETTY Party insiders believe failure to achieve the target will increase attempts to oust the party leader

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A confidential study of poll data being circulated within the party suggested Labour must make significant gains in town hall elections on May 5 to have any hope of winning the next general election. Party insiders believe failure to achieve the target is almost certain to force a fresh attempt to oust the hard-Left leader.

Labour MP Tristram Hunt was yesterday among senior party figures warning that Mr Corbyn would be judged by the outcome of the crunch polls. Mr Hunt said: "All the local election results over the past 40 years suggest we should be winning more than 400 council seats in England in May.

GETTY The most recent opinion polls suggest Labour has nothing like enough support

"This will be the first test of whether a Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn can increase its appeal to the British public - particularly voters in crucial marginal seats in the South and West Midlands that we will need to win if we're to have any hope of forming a government in 2020." The most recent opinion polls suggest Labour has nothing like enough support to make major advances in the town hall elections. A BMG poll last month put Labour on just 30%, eight points behind the Tories.

This will be the first test of whether a Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn can increase its appeal to the British public Tristram Hunt, Labour MP

Mr Corbyn's aides have been attempting to play down the significance of the local government elections in May. They insist Labour candidate Sadiq Khan has a good chance of beating Tory Zac Goldsmith to the London mayoralty.

But they argued that Labour did well in 2012 the last time the seats being contested in May were up for grabs, making further advances unlikely. However, an unofficial study of council election results from the last 42 years showed that opposition parties almost always do well in their first round of local polls under a new leader.

GETTY Labour also lost council seats in 1982 under Michael Foot's leadership during the Falklands War

The analysis of polls dating back to 1974 showed the average council gains for an opposition party outside a general election year was 434 seats. The last time an opposition party lost seats in local elections was in 1985 when Labour was engulfed in feuding of infiltration by the hard-Left Militant Tendency. Labour also lost council seats in 1982 under Michael Foot's leadership during the Falklands War. The average gain of councillors for an opposition party with a new leader was 515 seats, the figures showed.The analysis was circulated among MPs following a briefing on local election campaign strategy at the weekly meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party on Monday evening.

GETTY The average gain of councillors for an opposition party with a new leader was 515 seats

Insiders have described the briefing by Mr Corbyn and Shadow Communities Secretary Jon Trickett as "shambolic". One Labour MP last night warned that Mr Corbyn's leadership would be "finished" if the party flopped in May. "This has to be sorted out soon or the party is doomed," the MP said. Other senior MPs yesterday intensified the pressure on Mr Corbyn ahead of the polls. Michael Dugher, who the Labour leader sacked from his frontbench team earlier this year, said: "The May elections are a huge test for Labour and for Jeremy Corbyn. He has to show that under his leadership we are making real progress in terms of getting back in touch with the public and gaining real support.