Chris Berman has taken his Swami Sez NFL picks segment, seen on SportsCenter, to ESPN Chalk. Each week during the NFL regular season, he'll give his favorite picks against the spread here with a little further analysis.

Season record: 44-20 ATS (last week: 4-1)

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans

The Broncos have a Super-Bowl quality defense, and it came to play last week against Jacksonville. Trevor Siemian might play in this one, but I'm not sure it makes a difference. This is the biggest game Tennessee has had in a while. The Titans are on their way to being a good team, but with this game a toss-up line, I'm taking the battle-tested defense to deliver again.

Score: Denver 20, Tennessee 17

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis looked great in a 41-10 blowout of a bad Jets team on Monday Night Football. Houston has lost three in a row, but is still tied for first at 6-6 in the AFC South. The Texans' defense has played well this season. Look for those guys to play like they did most of the game against the Raiders in Mexico a couple of weeks ago and keep Andrew Luck in check somewhat. Houston pulls out a close one with a couple of big plays on offense and stays in first place.

Score: Houston 22, Indianapolis 20

Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins

We still have a quarter of the season left, which means it's too early to throw in the towel for some teams we thought would be good before the season. Arizona is one of them, and I think the Cardinals will show up for this game. Even if they aren't in the race, they're playing like they are. The Dolphins aren't as bad as they looked last week in Baltimore, but Arizona is a better team. I don't see the Cardinals disappearing quite yet.

Score: Arizona 26, Miami 23

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills

Do we get the Bills team that showed up for the first 2½ quarters in Oakland? Or the one that blew a 24-9 lead in the last 1½ quarters? I'm banking on the good Buffalo team to show up. Pittsburgh's defense was very impressive in its win over the New York Giants on Sunday, but in a hotly contested game I like the home team to eke it out here.

Score: Buffalo 24, Pittsburgh 23

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a game the Bucs are supposed to win if they are going to make the playoffs, which is a position this young team hasn't been in recently. Remember, they were an underdog at home to the Chicago Bears just a month ago. I understand that Drew Brees has been his usual self this season and could break his own record for completion percentage, but I like Tampa here and I'm getting under a field goal with the team with a better record. The Jolly Roger will be firing at the new Sombrero as Tampa Bay continues its playoff push.

Score: Tampa Bay 27, New Orleans 23