Both teams spent Selection Sunday on the edge of their seats as they waited to see their names called, but can relax now that they know they are in the field. However, that relaxation will be short-lived with both teams more than likely traveling tomorrow before an evening practice than a morning walkthrough on gameday. The Wake Forest Demon Deacons meet the Kansas State Wildcats in a play-in game on Tuesday at 9:10 pm on TruTv for the right to play Cincinnati in the Round of 64. This will be the Demon Deacons’ first tournament appearance since 2010 and Kansas State’s first since 2014.

All week long you can follow along for a breakdown of every first round matchup featuring ACC schools. On the slate for the Thursday matchups are #5 Notre Dame vs. #12 Princeton, #5 Virginia vs. #12 UNC Wilmington, #3 Florida State vs #14 Florida Gulf Coast, and #8 Wisconsin vs. #9 Virginia Tech.

Offense

Advantage: Wake Forest

Wake Forest is one of just 36 teams that averaged over 80 PPG this season led by Second Team All-American John Collins. On the season the sophomore big man is averaging 18.9 PPG and 9.8 RPG while picking up 17 double-doubles in the process. Joining Collins in double figures for the Deacs are a pair of sophomore guards in Bryant Crawford (16.1 PPG) and Charlotte transfer Keyshawn Woods (12.8 PPG). The duo connected on a combined 103 three-pointers, and do a good job spacing the floor for the big man to go to work down low.

Possibly Wake’s greatest strength on offense is their ability to shoot free throws. The Demon Deacons are 11th in the nation connecting on 77.3% of their shots from the charity stripe. If the game is tight down the stretch, head coach Danny Manning can take comfort in the fact that his boys can step to the line and knock down the freebies.

The Wildcats enter the Big Dance averaging 71.7 PPG which is 10th lowest amongst the teams that made it this far. Senior Wesley Iwundu’s 12.5 PPG leads a balanced scoring attack with four different Wildcats averaging double-digit scoring this season. The other three double-digit scorers are Barry Brown (11.7 PPG), Kamau Stokes (11.6 PPG), and D.J. Johnson (11.2 PPG). However, unlike Wake Forest, the Wildcats struggle at the free throw line where they only shoot 68.9%. Stokes with 76% and Iwundu with 75% lead the way for the Wildcats from the charity stripe with freshman Xavier Sneed and senior Carlbe Ervin being the only other members of the rotation to shoot over 70%.

Defense

Advantage: Kansas State

Kansas State held opponents to less than 70 points 18 times this season and went 15-3 in those games. However, in the 14 games the Wildcats let their opponents get to 70 it was a different story, with them going only 4-10. To be successful on the defensive end K-State has to force turnovers. On the season they are 25th in the nation and force opponents to turn the ball over an average of 15.2 times a game. Brown leads the Wildcats with 78 steals this season, which is good for 7th in the nation this season. While he is far and away ahead of his teammates, Brown doesn’t do it alone on the defensive end of the court, with every player in coach Bruce Weber’s rotation having at least 20 steals on the season.

To say that Wake Forest struggles with stopping teams would be a bit of an understatement. The only team in the tournament this year that has allowed more points per game than the Demon Deacons’ 77.9 is 16-seed South Dakota State. Outside of Collins, Wake doesn’t have much in the way of rim protection and it shows with opponents scoring at a 51.3% clip in the paint. The Deacs aren’t much better when it comes to forcing turnovers with only four guys with more than 20 steals and Bryant Crawford leading the way with 46. The best defense for Danny Manning’s club is to score early and often and force Kansas State to play at their pace and try to keep up.

Coaching

Advantage: Kansas State

Bruce Weber has been a head coach for 19 seasons now and has made it to the NCAA tournament 10 times. He has been to the Sweet Sixteen on three separate occasions including making it all the way to the 2005 National Championship before falling to a loaded North Carolina team. Over the course of his career, Weber has amassed a career record of 412-222 and is 99-67 since arriving at Kansas State. However, Weber has yet to win a game in the Big Dance with the Wildcats being upset by LaSalle in 2013 and losing to eventual national runner-up Kentucky in 2014.

Danny Manning is relatively new when it comes to being a head coach with this being only his fifth season leading a team. In his two years at Tulsa, he went 38-29 with a bid to the 2014 NCAA Tournament. Manning was able to parlay that into the head coaching position at Wake Forest. In his first two seasons, he struggled going 24-38 before turning it around this year and going 19-13 and 9-9 in the ACC. This season was the first time since 2010 that the Demon Deacons finished with a record of at least .500 in ACC play.

X-Factor

Advantage: Wake Forest

The X-Factor in this game is something I alluded to on the offensive end and will almost certainly be a factor in a close game, and that is free throws. Everyone in Danny Manning’s seven-man rotation can shoot free throws at a 70% clip with Collins being the only player shooting under 75%. For the Wildcats, only three of the seven players in their rotation shoot free throws at a 75% clip. However, since February 11, Wesley Iwundu has been as consistent as it gets going 31 for 36 including a 14 for 17 performance against Oklahoma State.

Kansas State can negate this disadvantage by keeping Wake off the free throw line. So far on the season, the Wildcats have allowed their opponents to shoot an average of 17.8 free throws a game, while Wake is used to shooting 24.8. If Kansas State can hold the Deacs to under 18 free throws that could be a big enough swing to get the Wildcats over the hump.

Prediction

Wake Forest 77 Kansas State 73

Kansas State is able to slightly slow down Wake forest, but the sharp shooting of the Demon Deacons and the presence of big man John Collins down low is enough to give Danny Manning his first career victory in the NCAA Tournament. With a win Wake would advance to the round of 64 where they would face off with an even greater defensive test in Cincinnati.