October 20 Update: Shortly after this report’s publication yesterday, STX delayed Second Act‘s release by one week to December 21. Our updated opening weekend tracking (down from $10 million when slated for December 14) is listed in the chart below.

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This week’s report takes a look at the December 14 – 16 frame, currently slated to see four wide releases.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Opening Weekend Range: $17 – 27 million

The brand name is likely to help this animated take serve as a strong option for young viewers in the market through the remainder of the holiday season, although it will probably still be contending with The Grinch and Ralph Breaks the Internet for general family audiences. Early social media buzz and Trailer Impact metrics are encouraging, with the latter earning a 79 percent Average Positive Interest score this week.

Mortal Engines

Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

We’re conservative on this adaptation due in large part to modest social media activity following its trailer campaign thus far. Peter Jackson’s producing role has been featured heavily in marketing, which will be an asset toward attracting fans of The Lord of the Rings films, but the film needs to build strong word of mouth through Christmas and New Year’s to compete with action-driven releases like Aquaman and Bumblebee. Another possible advantage could be that it offers something relatively new in a month filled with more established franchise/universe titles.

The Mule

Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million

Tracking is very preliminary at this stage with the film and its trailer only having been announced in recent weeks. Still, we’re confident enough in the potential of star/director Clint Eastwood’s latest project to offer up initial forecasts thanks to encouraging trailer reactions. Bradley Cooper’s supporting role will be an added advantage, and an award season run could give the crime pic long life into early 2019.

Second Act

Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 13 million

Representing the only release of this weekend targeting a predominately female audience will help it serve as a fair counter-programmer. The release of Mary Poppins Returns five days later will likely cut into that target demographic, but there could still be room to attract adult women during the holiday corridor.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor 10/26/2018 Hunter Killer $7,500,000 -17% $20,000,000 -23% 2,600 Lionsgate / Summit 10/26/2018 Indivisible $2,000,000 $6,000,000 n/a Pure Flix 10/26/2018 Johnny English Strikes Again $3,250,000 -19% $7,100,000 -19% 500 Universal 11/2/2018 Bohemian Rhapsody $35,000,000 $110,000,000 3,400 Fox 11/2/2018 Tyler Perry’s Nobody’s Fool $13,500,000 -10% $36,000,000 -10% 2,000 Paramount 11/2/2018 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $21,000,000 $80,000,000 3,300 Disney 11/2/2018 Suspiria (Wide) n/a n/a n/a Amazon Studios 11/9/2018 The Girl in the Spider’s Web $14,000,000 -7% $40,000,000 -11% Sony / Columbia 11/9/2018 Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch $70,000,000 -11% $290,000,000 -5% Universal 11/9/2018 Overlord $10,500,000 -25% $30,000,000 -29% Paramount 11/16/2018 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald $75,000,000 $222,000,000 Warner Bros. 11/16/2018 Instant Family $18,000,000 n/a Paramount 11/16/2018 A Private War (Expansion) n/a n/a Aviron 11/16/2018 Widows $20,000,000 $78,000,000 Fox 11/21/2018 Creed 2 $23,000,000 $80,000,000 MGM 11/21/2018 The Front Runner (Wide Expansion) n/a n/a Sony 11/21/2018 Ralph Breaks the Internet $50,000,000 $200,000,000 Disney 11/21/2018 Robin Hood $9,500,000 $26,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit 11/21/2018 Green Book n/a n/a Universal 11/30/2018 The Possession of Hannah Grace n/a n/a Sony / Columbia 12/7/2018 The Silence n/a n/a Global Road 12/14/2018 Mortal Engines $16,000,000 NEW $55,000,000 NEW Universal 12/14/2018 The Mule $14,000,000 NEW $80,000,000 NEW Warner Bros. 12/21/2018 Second Act $9,000,000 NEW $40,000,000 NEW STX 12/14/2018 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $22,000,000 NEW $90,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia

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