'Big shakeup' in Iowa Poll: Cruz soars to lead

Show Caption Hide Caption Cruz surges ahead of Trump, Carson in latest Iowa Poll Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz has surged ahead of former front runners Donald Trump and Ben Carson in latest Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Iowa Poll.

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Seven weeks from the caucuses, Ted Cruz is crushing it in Iowa.

The anti-establishment congressional agitator has made a rapid ascent into the lead in the GOP presidential race here, with a 21 percentage-point leap that smashes records for upsurges in recent Iowa caucuses history.

Donald Trump, now 10 points below Cruz, was in a pique about not being the front-runner even before the Iowa Poll results were announced Saturday evening. He wasted no time in tearing into Cruz — and the poll — during an Iowa stop Friday night.

Ben Carson, another "Washington outsider" candidate, has plunged 15 points from his perch at the front of the pack in October. He's now in third place.

"Big shakeup," said J. Ann Selzer, pollster for The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll. "This is a sudden move into a commanding position for Cruz."

Cruz, a Texas U.S. senator famous for defying party leaders and using government shutdown tactics to hold up funding for the Obamacare health care law and abortion provider Planned Parenthood, was the favorite of 10 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers in the last Iowa Poll in October. He's now at 31 percent.

Carson's zenith was 28 percent in the poll two months ago. Trump's highest support was 23 percent back in August, when he led the field by 5 points.

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And there are signs Cruz may not have peaked in Iowa yet. Another 20 percent of likely caucusgoers say he's their current second choice for president. Cruz hits 51 percent support when first- and second-choice interest is combined, again leading the field.

With Cruz's popularity and his debate proficiency, "it's certainly possible that he could win Iowa big — very big," said Frank Luntz, a Nevada-based GOP focus group guru who follows the Iowa race closely.

But Trump, who has earned a reputation for upending pundits' predictions, still has healthy backing, at 21 percent, 2 percentage points higher than in the last poll.

And the New York real estate entrepreneur has won the confidence of likely caucusgoers in several key areas. In a four-way head-to-head match-up with Cruz, Carson and Marco Rubio, half of likely caucusgoers believe Trump would be best at managing the economy and think he'd do the most to solve the illegal immigration problem. Forty-nine percent believe Trump "knows the most about how to get things done," while only 22 percent say that of Cruz.

Carson, a mellow-voiced religious conservative who spent his career at the bedside of children who needed brain surgery, has dropped to 13 percent. Poll respondents interviewed by the Register said they want a president who will be tough on terrorism, and they have a trouble seeing Carson in this role.

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Two establishment candidates' positions in the race remain largely unchanged.

Rubio, a Florida U.S. senator who has framed himself as someone who can deliver "a new American century," is in fourth place with 10 percent. He was in fourth with 9 percent in October.

And former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who presents himself as the steady hand who can best keep the nation safe from terrorism and improve the economy, remains in fifth (he was tied in fifth with Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul in October). Bush sits at 6 percent, up 1 point.

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Three Republicans are tied at 3 percent: Paul, a watchdog for government overreach; former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a torchbearer for Christian conservative morals; and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a self-proclaimed messenger of hard truths.

This poll result will play a role in determining whether Paul is on the main stage for the Las Vegas debate Tuesday night, or if he’ll be with the underdogs in the undercard debate.

The rest of the field is at 2 percent or less, including Carly Fiorina, a public office rookie who leans on her experience as a technology company CEO, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who stresses his longtime government experience and competence.

The Iowa Poll of 400 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Dec. 7-10 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

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Just as some top Republicans in Iowa and across the country were starting to say Trump might win not only Iowa but also the GOP nomination, he finds himself losing by 10 points here.

"Iowa's 11th commandment is thou shalt be nice," said Jamie Johnson, an Iowa political operative who was senior director for former presidential candidate Rick Perry's campaign. "Donald Trump has violated this commandment one too many times. Now he is paying the price."

The poll shows the Iowa electorate has started to define Trump a little more clearly. He has hammered home the impression that he'd be a get-it-done problem-solver on the federal deficit, on dealing with the aggressive president of Russia, and on combating Islamic terrorism.

But he scores poorly on temperament to be president, ability to work effectively with Congress, and on values.

Those are areas where Cruz is viewed as best, the poll finds.

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Since the October poll, Cruz got strong reviews in two debates, stepped up his visits to Iowa and was validated by an endorsement from U.S. Rep. Steve King, a kingmaker in conservative circles.

Cruz is now leading with two critical blocs in the Republican caucus electorate: evangelical conservatives (45 percent) and tea party conservatives (39 percent).

Iowa presents a "take and hold" scenario for Cruz: He's taken it; now he needs to hold it, with about 50 days to go before the first-in-the-nation vote on Feb. 1.

While other GOP presidential hopefuls have clashed with the Trump Nation head-on, Cruz's decision to stay out of Trump's way is proving to be a favorable strategy in Iowa. He's the backup choice for 49 percent of Trump supporters. And Cruz has sky-high image numbers. The percentage of likely caucusgoers who have a positive view of Cruz is now 73 percent, up 12 points from October, including 43 percent who have a very favorable impression.

On Friday, amid chatter about the race narrowing to a two-person affair, Cruz tweeted that he wasn't going to reward the establishment by engaging in a "cage match" with Trump.

But Trump, now that his political soulmate poses a threat, had no such qualms. At an event at the Iowa State Fairgrounds Friday night, Trump lit into Cruz for the first time, claiming the Texan is beholden to Big Oil and trying to plant seeds of doubt about whether a Cuban can be an evangelical Christian. Cruz's father, a conservative preacher who has spent 25 days on the Iowa campaign trail for his son, emigrated from Cuba.

In telephone interviews with the Register, Iowa Poll participants were strongly supportive of Cruz.

"I've always liked him because I feel like he stands up for what he believes in, even if the polls aren't showing that it's popular," said Cruz backer Bridget Campbell, a 42-year-old Shenandoah Republican who works from home doing health care information management. "If he believes in it, he will stand up."

Hannah Kern, 21, who works on her family's farm in rural Traer, said her mind is firmly made up to caucus for Cruz. She heard his father, Rafael Cruz, talk about his son at a home-schoolers' event near Kalona, and saw Ted Cruz in person for the first time at his religious liberty rally in August in Des Moines, where he handed out booklets on the U.S. Constitution.

"The most important thing is someone who knows what our Constitution is," Kern said.

Retired welder Larry Flanders, who lives in Russell, said he likes both Trump and Cruz, but has now settled on Cruz.

"What put the frosting on the cake is when he backed up Trump on what Trump said" about various topics such as immigration and fighting ISIS, Flanders said. Plus, Cruz knows the inner workings of Congress and is familiar with "how bad the White House is."

"Either one of them can get it across, but Trump's pretty blunt," Flanders said. "Cruz can tell you off and not hurt your feelings."

21-point jump is huge

Just how stunning is Republican Ted Cruz's rise to the top?

No one else has made such an impressive leap in five caucus cycles, Iowa Poll records show.

In the Dec. 7-10 Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll, the Texas U.S. senator has vaulted 21 percentage points since the last poll, in October.

The leggiest upward leap in the 2012 Iowa race was Republican Mitt Romney's 8-point move from 16 percent to 24 percent in the final poll before the vote.

The biggest collapse: Republican Newt Gingrich, who lost 13 points (dropping from 25 percent to 12 percent) in that same final poll.

During the 2008 race, Republican Mike Huckabee surged 17 points between an October poll and a late November poll, moving into a lead he did not relinquish.

In 2004, Democrat John Edwards jumped from 5 percent to 22 percent, also a 17-point leap, in the final poll before the vote. And Democrat John Kerry rose 10 points, from 15 percent to 25 percent.

— Jennifer Jacobs

No rush to vow loyalty

The vast majority of likely Iowa Republicans caucusgoers aren't willing yet to pledge fidelity, in writing, to any candidate.

At campaign events, aides routinely circulate among Iowans, asking them to put in writing that they promise to caucus for their candidate.

But 95 percent of likely caucusgoers say they haven't signed a pledge card this cycle, the Dec. 7-10 Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics survey shows. Just 4 percent have put a pen to paper.

One percent say they've signed a pledge, then reneged and aligned with a rival.

About a quarter of likely caucusgoers have gone to a candidate event, including 9 percent who have been to two or three, and 9 percent who have been to one.

— Jennifer Jacobs​

About those backup choices

Among those who say Ted Cruz is their first choice for president, 27 percent say they would never support Donald Trump.

And 21 percent of Trump voters say they'd never support Cruz, the Dec. 7-10 Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows.

Advantage Cruz.

Among Trump supporters, a strong number say Cruz is their second choice (49 percent).

Ben Carson's second-choice votes go mostly to Cruz (35 percent), with Trump getting 17 percent.

Carson and Trump are nearly tied for Cruz supporters' second choice, 26 percent and 25 percent respectively.

Advantage Cruz.

It's rare, but there are some likely GOP caucusgoers split between establishment and anti-establishment candidates.

For example, Jeb Bush gets 8 percent of Carson backers' second-choice votes, 4 percent of Cruz's, and 3 percent of Trump's.

— Jennifer Jacobs

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Dec. 7-10 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 400 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 404 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers contacted 2,635 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list.

Questions based on the subsamples of 404 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 400 likely Republican caucus attendees each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.