Broad revision (from 1980 to 2004) by the EIA this month but not significant in amplitude.

An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.

mbpd= Million of barrels per day

Gb= Billion of barrels (10 9 )

Tb= Trillion of barrels (10 12 )

NGPL= Natural Gas Plant Liquids

CO= Crude Oil + lease condensate

NGL= Natural Gas Liquids (lease condensate + NGPL)

URR= Ultimate Recoverable Resource

EIA Last Update (June)

Data sources for the production numbers:

Production data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 (Crude oil + NGL).

EIA data (monthly and annual productions up to February 2007) for crude oil and lease condensate (noted CO) on which I added the NGPL production (noted CO+NGL).

The All liquids peak is still July 2006 at 85.54 mbpd, the year to date average production value in 2007 (6 months) is down from 2006 for all the categories except for NGPL. The peak date for Crude Oil + Cond. remains May 2005 at 74.30 mbpd (see Table I below).



Fig 1.- World production (EIA data). Blue lines and pentagrams are indicating monthly maximum. Monthly data for CO from the EIA. Annual data for NGPL and Other Liquids from 1980 to 2001 have been upsampled to get monthly estimates. Click to Enlarge.

Category June 2007 June 2006 12 MA1 2007 (6 Months) 2006 (6 Months) Share Peak Date Peak Value All Liquids 84.50 84.21 84.65 84.28 84.35 100.00% 2006-07 85.54 Crude Oil + NGL 80.72 80.83 81.34 81.20 81.26 95.52% 2005-05 82.09 Other Liquids 3.78 3.38 3.30 3.08 3.08 4.48% 2007-06 3.78 NGPL 7.89 7.72 7.90 7.97 7.78 9.34% 2007-02 8.03 Crude Oil + Condensate 72.82 73.11 73.44 73.23 73.48 86.18% 2005-05 74.30 Canadian Tar Sands2 1.47 0.99 1.31 1.42 1.06 1.74% 2007-03 1.57

Revision Pattern

Important Changes This Month In this release of the International Petroleum Monthly there are two major changes: (1) Petroleum demand data for OECD countries, other than the United States and the U.S. Territories, have been revised for 1990-1994 based on the International Energy Agency's (IEA) annual review of historical OECD petroleum data, the results of which were released in the August 10, 2007 version of the IEA's Monthly Oil Data Service. Revised data are shown in bold italic font. (2) Petroleum production data for 1980-2005 have been revised to match data in the recently released Petroleum Production Time Series Tables of the International Energy Annual 2005. Revised data are shown in bold italic font.. World petroleum production data for the month of June 2007 and the Second Quarter of 2007; and OECD country petroleum demand, imports, and stocks data for the month of May 2007 have been added.







Fig 2.- Range of previous monthly revisions for All Liquids (top), crude oil + condensate (middle) and NGPL (bottom). Click to Enlarge.



Fig 3.- Cumulative change in production numbers since first estimates are issued for each month. Click to Enlarge.

Business as Usual



Fig 4.- Production forecasts assuming no visible peak. Click to Enlarge.

PeakOilers: Bottom-Up Analysis



Fig 5.- Forecasts by PeakOilers based on bottom-up methodologies. Click to Enlarge.

PeakOilers: Curve Fitting



Fig 6.- Forecasts by PeakOilers using curve fitting methodologies. Click to Enlarge.

Forecast Date 2005 2006 2007 2010 2015 Diff2 Peak Date Peak Value All Liquids Observed (EIA) 84.63 84.65 84.32 NA NA 2006-07 85.54 IEA (WEO) 2004 82.06 83.74 85.41 90.40 98.69 -1.09 2030 121.30 IEA (WEO) 2005 84.00 85.85 87.64 92.50 99.11 -3.32 2030 115.40 Koppelaar 2005 84.06 85.78 86.61 89.21 87.98 -2.29 2011 89.58 Lahèrrere 2005 83.59 84.47 85.23 86.96 87.77 -0.91 2014 87.84 EIA (IEO) 2006 82.70 84.50 86.37 91.60 98.30 -2.05 2030 118.00 IEA (WEO) 2006 83.60 85.10 86.62 91.30 99.30 -2.30 2030 116.30 CERA1 2006 87.77 89.52 91.62 97.24 104.54 -7.30 2035 130.00 Lahèrrere 2006 83.59 84.82 85.96 88.93 92.27 -1.64 2018 92.99 Smith 2006 85.19 87.77 90.88 98.94 98.56 -6.56 2012-05 99.83 Crude Oil + NGL Observed (EIA) 81.46 81.38 81.12 NA NA 2005-05 82.09 GBM 2003 76.06 76.27 76.33 75.30 67.79 4.79 2007-05 76.34 Bakhtiari 2003 80.24 80.89 80.89 77.64 69.51 0.23 2006 80.89 ASPO-46 2004 81.00 80.95 80.80 80.00 73.77 0.32 2005 81.00 ASPO-58 2005 81.00 82.03 83.10 85.00 79.18 -1.98 2010 85.00 Staniford (High) 2005 77.45 77.92 78.31 79.01 78.51 2.81 2011-10 79.08 Staniford (Med) 2005 75.81 75.94 75.97 75.52 73.00 5.15 2007-05 75.98 Staniford (Low) 2005 70.46 70.13 69.71 67.92 63.40 11.41 2002-07 70.88 IEA (WEO) 2006 80.10 81.38 82.67 86.50 92.50 -1.55 2030 104.90 Koppelaar 2006 81.76 82.31 83.68 91.00 NA -2.56 2010 91.00 Skrebowski 2006 80.95 81.47 82.64 87.37 NA -1.52 2010 87.97 Smith 2006 80.53 82.81 85.45 91.95 88.60 -4.33 2011-02 92.31 Loglets 2006 81.12 82.14 83.02 84.65 83.26 -1.90 2012-01 84.80 ASPO-76 2006 77.92 79.00 81.35 90.00 85.00 -0.23 2010 90.00 Robelius Low 2006 81.45 82.19 82.50 81.84 72.26 -1.38 2007 82.50 Robelius High 2006 81.45 84.19 86.67 93.40 92.40 -5.55 2012 94.54 Shock Model 2006 80.76 80.43 80.01 78.27 73.74 1.11 2003 81.17 Crude Oil + Lease Condensate Observed (EIA) 73.81 73.57 73.16 NA NA 2005-05 74.30 ASPO-46 2004 72.80 72.56 72.25 71.00 63.55 0.91 2005 72.80 Deffeyes 2004 69.94 69.93 69.84 69.02 65.99 3.33 2005-12 69.95 ASPO-58 2005 73.00 73.80 74.65 76.00 69.50 -1.48 2010 76.00 IEA (WEO) 2006 70.80 71.78 72.77 75.70 80.30 0.40 2030 89.10 CERA1 2006 76.49 76.89 78.60 82.29 83.83 -5.44 2038 97.58 ASPO-76 2006 71.11 72.10 73.66 78.00 72.00 -0.50 2010 78.00 HSM 2007 NA 73.56 73.53 72.82 69.53 -0.37 2006 73.56 Ace 2007 NA 73.48 73.03 66.96 58.47 0.13 2006-01 73.55 Table II. Summary of all the forecasts (figures are in mbpd) as well as the last EIA estimates.1Productive capacities. 2Difference between the observed production for 2007 and the predicted value (in mbpd), the value in bold indicates the best forecast (i.e. the oldest with the lowest difference.

There was a big revision this month for almost the monthly estimates:There was also a mistake in the May production from Canada that briefly went up by almost 1 mbpd! Overall, we can see that production for crude oil and condensate has been revised up around May 2005 and June 2006 but revised down for the first quarter of 2006 and 2007. NGPL production has been revised down for almost all the months since 2003. However, the cumulated amount of revisions do not exceed 0.5 mbpd.The cumulative change in production estimates are shown on Figure 3. The 2005 annual production for all liquids has been revised up by 0.5 mbpd since initial estimate.The following results are based on a linear or non-linear fit of a parametric curve (most often a Logistic curve) directly on the observed production profile:





Next update probably in December.

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Oilwatch - September 2007

Khebab@theoildrum.com