WEST LEBANON, N.H. — Of the dozens of vulnerable Republicans scraping to survive the year of Donald Trump, Sen. Kelly Ayotte might have the toughest job of them all.

The New Hampshire Republican was already on the hot seat before Trump arrived on the scene — forced to defend her generally conservative voting record in a state with a famous independent streak, in a Democrat-friendly election year, against perhaps the best Democratic Senate recruit in the country in popular incumbent Gov. Maggie Hassan.


As if that weren’t problematic enough, Ayotte spent months awkwardly trying to position herself vis-à-vis her erratic nominee — declaring, in some kind of political Morse code, that she “supports” Trump but would not “endorse” him — before finally kicking him to the curb this month and saying she’d write in Mike Pence.

Yet somehow, through all that, Ayotte has managed to keep the race a dead heat. And the self-styled conservative-leaning-yet-bipartisan dealmaker could be one of the most influential swing votes in Congress — if she can hang on.

“When [Democrats] are looking at someone they can work with on issues, they look for me. I come to them. Because I know that I’m looking for common ground,” she said in an interview here at a pharmaceutical manufacturer on the Vermont border. Of Hillary Clinton, she adds: “I can work with her and be a check on her. I think I can do both.”

The race is one of a half-dozen that will determine control of the Senate — and total spending in the state of 1.3 million is approaching a jaw-dropping $100 million. Further, it pits two of the highest-ranking female politicians in the country against each other, officials who cross paths on a near-daily basis but whose styles couldn't be more different.

Ayotte, at 48 one of the youngest senators, stomps through the Capitol's hallways with a steely reserve, often warding off reporters with a glare. But at home in New Hampshire, she's all smiles, a mom with a homespun appeal that leads many well-wishers to call her "Kelly."

Hassan, a 58-year-old two-term governor, is possibly the most disciplined Senate candidate of 2016, blitzing Ayotte with well-rehearsed attacks on her voting record and positioning on Trump. The Democrat has a compelling biography: Her son Ben has cerebral palsy, and her political career stems from fighting for his educational opportunities.

Hassan is well regarded in the state. She won reelection in 2014, an awful year for Democrats on the ballot. But this year, the onus is squarely on Ayotte: She's taking fire from Democrats who argue she’s a down-the-line Republican masquerading as a moderate, and from conservative activists furious she cut bait with Trump after he was caught on tape bragging about violating women.

To complete her high-wire act on Nov. 8, and perhaps keep the GOP’s fragile Senate majority, Ayotte must convince voters simultaneously that she can work with Democrats but isn't deserting conservatives.

Her most immediate task, though, is navigating the fallout over her decision to ditch Trump.

“What she did was cowardly and spineless and a political miscalculation,” said Republican state lawmaker Dan Tamburello. “If she rescinds what she did … then I would happily vote for her. Up to and until that point, I’m not going to.”

“I definitely don’t want Gov. Hassan to win,” sighs John Burt, another GOP state representative upset by Ayotte's move. “In the end, I will probably check the box" for Ayotte.

(A day before the POLITICO interview, Burt posted a picture of himself on Facebook posing alongside a sample ballot that had him voting straight Republican — except for Ayotte.)

Tamburello says some angry Trump voters could defect to independent candidate Aaron Day; enough, perhaps, to make a difference in this airtight race. Day revels in the possibility that he could play spoiler, concluding in an interview that Ayotte's ouster wouldn't be “a huge loss. I think I can win, but I also think she shouldn’t win."

Ayotte's backers believe that by parting ways with Trump, she's at least taken away that cudgel from Democrats. But Hassan has other ideas. She uses every opportunity to remind voters of Ayotte’s statement this month that Trump is “absolutely” a role model, a flub that came just days before the infamous Trump video was published.

“To suddenly act surprised … when those tapes were consistent with the character of Donald Trump that we’ve all come to know?" Hassan said in an interview in Concord. "There isn’t any explanation other than her party and politics."

Ayotte, despite her disavowal, is still walking her Trump tightrope. She's not actively bashing him like Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), even as more allegations come out daily. Ayotte even says Trump still has a chance to carry New Hampshire, even as his brutal poll numbers suggest otherwise.

For her sake, he'd better: A blowout win by Hillary Clinton would crush Ayotte’s chances. So as she opposes Trump, she makes clear she isn't asking the same of the state's Republicans.

“This is still a competitive presidential race, and I think the people of New Hampshire will make up their own minds. My decision was my vote on this issue. I’m not at all [trying to send a signal],” she said.

Democrats believe Ayotte's support in on the verge of collapse. Informed a POLITICO reporter was venturing to the Granite State for a story, one senior Democratic strategist replied: “Why bother?”

Ayotte's distancing from Trump is part of a closing statement of sorts to voters: She insists if voters give her another term, they'll get a prolific senator in the middle of every major deal in the Senate, not the arch-conservative her opponent Hassan makes her out to be.

And from the standpoint of pure political survival, Ayotte's only path to reelection is to appeal to New Hampshire's broad swath of independents and not stray too far from the conservative base.

“This is a state that rewards independent officials," said Ryan Williams, a longtime New Hampshire Republican hand. “These are sophisticated voters."

Ayotte's record has something for the middle and right. She voted for comprehensive immigration reform, backed President Barack Obama’s plan to curb power plant emissions, and voted to restore expired unemployment benefits — all against the wishes of GOP Leader Mitch McConnell.

On the other hand, she opposed universal background checks for gun purchases, and she backed a bill to ban abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy. Ayotte has voted to defund Planned Parenthood, though last fall, she went against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) as he sought to gut the group’s federal funding in a government spending bill. She has sided with Republicans in refusing to take up the Supreme Court vacancy before the election — but wants the Senate to move promptly next year.

It's a profile that's earned her a diverse group of enemies. The conservative Americans for Prosperity isn’t lifting a finger here even as it works enthusiastically to reelect Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, a heavy underdog.

AFP gets involved in races where “there’s a significant philosophical difference. And that’s one that we just don’t feel meets that criteria,” AFP President Tim Phillips said of New Hampshire.

This year, Ayotte broke with the NRA on a failed attempt to keep terrorists from buying guns; subsequently the group has spent just $50,000 against Hassan. Yet rather than take that as a signal she's ready to deal, the pro-gun control Americans for Responsible Solutions is hammering her for voting against a 2013 background checks bill.

“Sen. Ayotte’s no different than a lot of other Republicans. They weren’t there when we needed them,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.).

That's a message that Hassan is trying to amplify, casting her opponent as a lockstep Republican during her first four years in Congress who is now "attempting to walk her record back" because she's up for reelection. She casts Ayotte's decision on Trump as a microcosm of six years of doing whatever is politically expedient at the time.

"She either stuck with Donald Trump for most of the last year on 35 different occasions because she thought he really was the best choice for president," Hassan said. "Or she stuck with him for political reasons."

Still, Hassan is making her own tack to the center as Ayotte casts her as too timid to stand up to Clinton. Hassan insists she won’t support current plans to close Guantánamo Bay or allow more Syrian refugees — positions that are more conservative than most Democrats hold.

The race to the middle is explained by a campaign that won't be won on party turnout efforts, but instead by fickle ticket-splitting nonpartisans, said former Gov. John Lynch, a Democrat who survived the 2010 tea party wave. There are more independents in the state than Democrats or Republicans.

Ultimately, it will be up to Ayotte to convince those voters she's worked on their behalf — not Trump's, and not even her party's.

"They want Republicans and Democrats to work together, strip off their party labels and solve problems," Lynch said. "Now, whether [Ayotte] has done that as much as she should, I don’t know ... I certainly think she’s saying the right things."