Stronger storm: 50 MPH gusts, 4 inches of rain forecast for Bay Area ridges Lower areas could see an inch of rain in stronger, organized storm

A more powerful winter storm is bearing down on the Bay Area with the potential to bring up to four inches of rain to coastal mountains and up to an inch of rain in urban areas when it hits early next week.

“This is a more organized and stronger storm than we’ve seen,” Anna Schneider, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Monterey said. “The past few days have been a little weaker.”

The forecast calls for moderate to heavy rainfall, probably starting Monday afternoon and continuing throughout Tuesday, Schneider said.

While Schneider predicts 2 to 3 inches of rain on some of the highest peaks in the North Bay and Santa Cruz Mountains, KPIX-TV's chief meteorologist Paul Deanno is going even higher, forecasting up to 4 inches in some mountain areas, but he adds that the mountains are better equipped to absorb rainfall at those amounts.

Deanno explains, "If we got that much in SF or Oakland, it would be a huge problem with urban flooding. In the mountains, we don't have to worry about that. That said, we'll be watching the burn scar areas from the Wine Country wildfires closely early next week."

As for San Francisco, San Jose, Oakland, and the other urban areas?

“At lower elevations, we’re probably looking at more like an inch,” Schneider added.

Southerly winds are predicted to reach 20 to 30 mph along coastal ranges with gusts up to 50 mph.

“In other areas, it will be breezy and gusty, but below what we’d consider for a wind advisory,” Schneider said.

The NWS Bay Area twitter page shared their photo of this morning's sunrise. The NWS Bay Area twitter page shared their photo of this morning's sunrise. Photo: NWS Bay Area Photo: NWS Bay Area Image 1 of / 7 Caption Close Stronger storm: 50 MPH gusts, 4 inches of rain forecast for Bay Area ridges 1 / 7 Back to Gallery

The storm could be good for resorts at high elevations in the Sierra, where the snowpack this year has been anemic. A recent survey determined that it’s at 24 percent of average for this time of year.

“There’s definitely a possibility that elevations above 7,500 to 8,000 feet will get a couple of feet of snow,” said Zach Tolby, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Reno.

For resorts like Heavenly Mountain and Squaw Valley, where peaks are higher than 8,000 feet, that’s good news. For lower resorts, not so much. They can expect an inch or two of rain.

“It’s a warm, subtropical moisture system,” Tolby said.

Still, this storm might be better than nothing.

“We would like it to be 2,000 feet lower to get a good snowstorm,” Tolby said. “But after such a dry December, any good precipitation and snow will help the conditions out here.”

Sophie Haigney is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: sophie.haigney@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @SophieHaigney