PROBABILITY DISTORTION - Or why Jaime Lannister is less likely to die than you think (part 1)

I am kicking off my metas with a prickly topic that is perhaps one of the most frustrating for me to come across (and one that is pretty much impossible to avoid, these days): Jaime Lannister’s (allegedly inevitable) death. I think the reason his death is so widely accepted as inevitable is due to probability distortion. Probability distortion means that the probability of events that are unlikely is overestimated and/or the probability of events that are likely is underestimated, and the degree with which this happens is often due to individual differences and personal biases. So, for example, people who are afraid of flying overestimate the probability of dying in a plane crash, while underestimating the probability of dying in a car crash.



This is what I believe is happening with most discourse and predictions about Jaime’s fate. While present, there are actually only a handful of hints that Jaime might die in the end, and these are weighed disproportionately heavily against the substantial amount of hints to the contrary. I am NOT saying it is impossible for Jaime to die. I just believe that, if we look at the material, the probability is actually far far lower than fandom and the general audience would have you believe.

Before I get started, DISCLAIMER: While I am obviously a huge Jaime fan, I want to stop the shouts of “You just want him to live because he is your favourite” right there. No, actually. Brienne is my favourite. And, while it would break my heart, I would not feel necessarily as dissatisfied with the story if she were the one to die (see part 4 for more on this). The way I see it, death is not a punishment nor is life a prize, for a character. What matters to me is whether a death fits and makes sense for that character’s story and the ones it affects, and if it is satisfying in terms of overall style, tropes and messages. That’s the stance from which I’m analysing Jaime’s odds in this meta.

I will look at his trajectory in the story and towards the endgame from three angles (narrative arcs, the use of foreshadowing, GRRM’s writing style and story management) to explain why I think the odds of his death are highly overestimated.

When looking at narrative arcs, we have to keep in mind one thing about ASOIAF: all arcs (especially POV arcs) are important, connected and affect one another - the so called “butterfly effects”. This is not a story with one or two protagonists the story follows, and everyone else playing supporting roles (have a look here for GRRM’s take on the matter). I believe one reason why so many people distort Jaime’s endgame odds is because they look at his arc as if it were its own, standalone story. But in order to predict where it’s going to go, we need to not only look at his arc, but also at how events in his arc are going to affect and make sense with regards to OTHER POV character’s arcs (and viceversa), and particularly the two who are most closely connected to his: Cersei and Brienne.

Jaime: the man he’s meant to be

Let’s start by looking at the man in question. Jaime’s arc has three prominent themes: redemption, identity and love/family. The common point across all three is the idea of “the man he’s meant to be”, a man that is different from the one we meet at the beginning of the story.

One reason I believe predictions about his fate are skewed, is because not only too much emphasis is placed on redemption, at the expense of the other themes, but the concept of redemption most seem to have in mind is of the classic “paying for one’s crimes” variety, where the villain redeems himself at the last minute by sacrificing himself for the greater good. In Jaime’s case, the crime is (mainly) pushing Bran from the tower and the redemption comes in the form of either killing Cersei and then killing/dying himself, or dying to protect one of the “good guys”.

However, this fails to take into account the huge thematic and narrative significance of losing his sword hand - which is ironic considering that is the most iconic visual trait of Jaime’s character. 1) Jaime has *already* paid for this crime when his sword hand was chopped off, as that destroyed his life as he knew it, just like Bran losing his legs did. 2) Losing his hand is a punishment that is comparable to the crime committed (Bran lost the legs; Jaime lost his sword hand - the one he used to push him, no less), while death is rather disproportionate. 3) His redemption has *already* begun in that moment, as he saves Brienne from rape. So Jaime has paid and has been working to “make up for his bad deed(s)” ever since, while the traditional format of redemptive death usually applies when the “bad guy” only does the right thing at the last minute (usually because he’s just a plot device for the one or two main characters to be saved, - see Darth Vader - whereas in this story main POV characters are not just plot devices). Indeed, GRRM said he is interested in exploring the process of redemption; whether and how someone who has committed some terrible act can come back from it. And he has stated that he wants to believe that is possible. His outlook on redemption arcs seems to be far less authoritarian than those who seem to presume that the answer to the question “can someone be redeemed” is either a yes which is equivalent to life or a no which is equivalent to death. There are tons of shades of grey in between those two options. Furthermore, as I will discuss in part 3, George is all about trope subversion, making the traditional redemptive format rather unlikely.

The handchop not only marks the beginning of his redemption arc, but also sets Jaime on his identity arc. In most predictions, much less emphasis is put on the identity arc, which is equally as important.

“They took my sword hand. Was that all that I was? A sword hand?”

From that moment, we see Jaime having to reinvent himself and he seems to begin falling into a leadership role (not unlike Jon’s penchant for ending up with jobs he didn’t apply for); first trying to reform the Kingsguard as Lord Commander, then sent on diplomatic missions in the Riverlands and, on the show, Dorne. While he trains with Ilyn Payne in the books and we see him in occasional fights and battles on the show, it is clear that while he can somewhat function on a battlefield, he will never be as good as he was with his right. Yet, most of the predictions, especially lately, see him die a hero in battle. Sure, some may say that he will die in battle precisely because he’s not that good anymore. However, that ignores authorial intent:

“And Jaime, losing a hand, losing the very thing he defined himself on is crucial to where I think I want to go with the character. And he questions what do you make of yourself if you’ve lost that.” (GRRM).

With Jaime, GRRM doesn’t seem so interested in telling the story of a hero that will save the world in battle, he seems far more interested in exploring how a broken man can reinvent himself after the *loss* of his identity as a fighter. When you think about it this way, the idea that the climax of his story will be a heroic death in battle becomes a rather unlikely scenario. Decrease the likelihood of this particular scenario, and the overall probability of his death does too.

Finally, there’s the theme that is perhaps most overlooked: love and family. Most commonly, this is associated with Cersei, - who Jaime is willing to do horrible things for - their incestuous children, and Jaime being guilty of his father and sister’s crimes, no matter his direct involvement in them. Whatever little thought is given to how this theme is relevant to predicting Jaime’s fate usually revolves around foreshadowing tragedy: Jaime will kill Cersei, die himself, the Lannisters are all meant to go extinct, and, at most, Tyrion will survive because he is “the good one” (although even that is being revisited now).

But the love and family theme has far wider implications for Jaime’s story. The big crux of this theme in Jaime’s story isn’t just that he’s sleeping with his sister and fathering bastard children with her, but also that, in the name of some misguided notion of star-crossed love for her, he joined a celibate order that required him to give up his role as heir and future leader of his house, as well as his right to marry and father legitimate children (as Tywin and other characters like to often remind us). Fast-forward to S6 of the show, and, in one of the most overlooked scenes, Jaime is released from the Kingsguard. While this is show-only, by that stage, the show was ahead of the books, and the idea of releasing Jaime from the KG is also floated around in the books, most recently by Kevan. Given where his arc seems to be taking him at the end of S7, there is literally no narrative reason for Jaime to be released from the Kingsguard, as he can be accused of treason for going against Cersei’s orders and leaving to fight in the North (and die) just the same. Unless the narrative reason is to free him up for something his Kingsguard vow does not allow him to do.



“Other men could be fathers, [..], husbands. But not Jaime Lannister, whose sword was as golden as his hair.”

Fathers, husbands… the man Jaime was meant to be had he not taken up the white cloak. Once again, this is juxtaposed with his “sword”, the identity as a fighter that he lost - what is Jaime if not a white cloak and a sword hand? Perhaps a father, husband and the head of his house? The man he was meant to be?

So, here we have a character who has embarked upon a redemption arc, which involved losing the thing that defined him as a fighter for his whole life, so that he has to reinvent himself into a role that increasingly looks to be the heir and leader he gave up in the first place, and that the show now put him in a position to legally pursue, with six more episodes to go. Once you take all this development into account, does it sound like an arc where death is a likely, logical and satisfying conclusion that the story is pointing towards? I’d say not really.

The odds of his survival are increased further once you look at how his potential death would affect the arcs of the two other named POV characters who are most closely intertwined with his: Cersei and Brienne.





Cersei: the twin who wasn’t

When we are first introduced to Cersei and Jaime, we only see them from the POV of other characters and one thing is drilled into our heads: they are twins in every sense of the word, from their golden looks to their despicable, arrogant, and shallow personalities. One of the plot twists, and what makes the POV structure so powerful, is that that first impression starts to unravel as soon as we are introduced to their POVs.

Turns out, Jaime and Cersei are actually fairly different people. Jaime is a man who’s grown cynical and bitter but once strived to be a honourable knight. Cersei, while undoubtedly having suffered being Queen to a drunken, abusive, and unfaithful King, showed a streak of sociopathy from a young age - as physically abusing Tyrion when he was a baby, and murdering her best friend by pushing her into a well. Through the story they are both growing to recognise their differences: Jaime realising Cersei was not the Maiden to his Warrior but “the Stranger, hiding her true face from my gaze” and Cersei being alienated by Jaime’s redemption-driven changes, and realising that he has wishes and a moral compass that do not match her own. GRRM sets them on completely opposite trajectories - Jaime on a redemption/identity arc, reinventing himself as a different man, while Cersei doubles down on her psychopathy, getting caught in all sorts of self-made drama and self-destruction. So much for being twins.

Why is this important in terms of Jaime’s death odds? As anyone who has spent five minutes online knows, Cersei has a certain prophecy that has her most likely marked for dead. I am not going to go into the theories about who the valonqar might be (although I will say that the corollary of the valonqar dying after killing Cersei is 100% fanon and nonexistent in the actual prophecy), but this is relevant because, from a narrative arc standpoint, if their arcs are heading in totally opposite directions and Cersei is marked for death, then the odds of Jaime also being marked for death are actually rather low. If one dies, the other, most likely, lives. (Could it be Cersei? Sure. But I think it’s unlikely based on her trajectory - not going to go into it now. Regardless, I think their endings will likely be diametrically opposed).





Brienne: the (plot) armour

And, finally, we come to Brienne. Her chapters are perhaps some of the strongest plot armour (irony, much? - IRON-y? Sorry. I’ll stop now.) Jaime has in this story.

Brienne embodies the concept of knighthood Jaime used to have before joining the Kingsguard. While her views are initially naive and unrealistic, one of her main purposes in the story is to ignite Jaime’s renewed desire to be the honourable knight he wanted to be when he was younger. But if this were Brienne’s sole purpose, she did not need to be a POV. She is a POV because GRRM wants us to see how meeting Jaime affected HER. While challenging her views of knighthood and oaths is one aspect of it, one thing he brings up over and over is that she is terrified of failing Jaime.

The feeling of failure over past events is a staple of Brienne’s inner thoughts (also towards her father, who she feels she couldn’t be an adequate daughter to, and Catelyn Stark, who she couldn’t protect from dying in the Red Wedding). But whenever she thinks about failing Jaime, her thoughts more often than not draw a parallel between failing Jaime and the way she “failed” Renly, the man she loved; i.e. being unable to prevent his death. We meet Brienne in book/season 2 and, shortly after her introduction, we see her holding a dying Renly in her arms. Once we get inside her head in book 4, we see that she has nightmares where she watches Jaime die the same way Renly did, or where he walks away, leaving her alone (“Jaime! Come back for me!”). The show had her voice this fear to Podrick:

“Nothing is more hateful than failing to protect the one you love”.

I won’t go off on a tangent now about Jaime and Brienne’s relationship and where that might go (although, as a full disclaimer, I believe all evidence points to a romance - check out bonus part 4 for more on that topic), but one does not need to see their relationship as romantic to appreciate that protection and failure are big themes in Brienne’s arc, that she starts the story precisely failing to protect the man she loves from death, and that those feelings of protection and fear of failure are transferred from Renly to Jaime. So, if Jaime were to die? It would bring her arc right back where she started, her story having gone nowhere. It does not really matter whether Brienne dies alongside him, or Jaime dies after Brienne is dead. From a narrative standpoint, it would still mean Brienne’s efforts were ultimately in vain. I think it’s unlikely GRRM’s decision to make her a POV character and spend so much time on the theme of failure of protecting the one(s) she loves, was merely to engage in circular storytelling and end the story with “You know what, Brienne? You were right all along. You are a failure. Now go and mourn Jaime for the rest of your lonely life, the way you mourned Renly and everyone else in your life who’s dead (i.e. 99% of your family).”







To summarize, if we look at narrative arcs, Jaime’s arc tackles three themes that all seem to point in a direction other than death as the most likely/logical outcome. Furthermore, Jaime’s death would void two other important themes/arcs George is exploring with two other POV characters. Therefore, while of course it doesn’t rule it out, the odds of him dying, when looking at narrative arcs alone, look much lower than the general consensus would have you believe.

Up next, in part 2, foreshadowing.