This week’s ORB poll for the Daily Telegraph suggests that the Leave campaign increasing focus on lack of control over immigration and associated message discipline has helped their case.

The effectiveness of this improved clarity and emphasis is demonstrated by the four point jump (to 46%) in the Leave campaign’s vote share among Definite Voters in this poll. The Remain campaign’s vote share has correspondingly fallen by four points (to 51%).

As always caution must be exercised with one poll and it is possible that last week’s poll which showed strong gains for Remain may have been overly positive for the Remain camp but there have been significant lifts in most factors for the Leave case.

While the Leave campaign has persuaded more voters of the benefits of Brexit, they are not yet locked in. Unsurprisingly, given the increase in the Leave camp’s vote share, the proportion of Leave voters who are likely to change their mind has also increased – up two points to 14%.