President Donald Trump will skip two major summits in Asia in November, a move that could stoke concerns in the region about the United States’ (US) reliability as a counterweight to China.

The White House said Friday that Vice President Mike Pence would travel to Singapore for an 18-nation summit hosted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), before heading to Papua New Guinea for an Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) gathering. The APEC summit is normally attended by 21 leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

The decision removes one potential avenue for Trump to meet with Xi as a trade war between the US and China deepens. Both leaders are expected to attend the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Argentina later in November.

Trump’s absence is also likely to fuel concerns among Asian leaders who want the US to push back against China’s increasing economic and military might. Trump administration officials have been promoting a new “Indo-Pacific” strategy to bolster its commitment to the fast-growing region, after Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal and questioned the cost of security alliances with Japan and South Korea.

Non-starter

“His absence would doubtlessly solidify the impression that America has essentially abandoned its traditional presence in the Asia Pacific, not to mention the non-starter Indo-Pacific,” said Oh Ei Sun, senior adviser for international affairs at the Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute in Kuala Lumpur.

Without Trump, Xi will have more space to advocate Chinese trade and development projects, such as his ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Xi was the first leader to confirm his attendance to the APEC meeting in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea, where he also plans to host his own summit with Pacific leaders.

Although US leaders have attended the events in recent years, missing them is not unprecedented. In 2007, then US President George W. Bush drew flak for rescheduling a planned meeting with ASEAN leaders in Singapore. Former President Barack Obama, whose administration announced a pivot in military and diplomatic resources to Asia, skipped APEC in 2013 to handle a government shutdown.

Midterm threat

Newly installed Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison told reporters during a trip to Jakarta on Saturday that Trump’s decision to tend to matters at home was understandable, adding that Pence “speaks with the authority of the president.” The Singaporean Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomed Pence’s visit to the Southeast Asian city-state, noting in a statement that it would be his first as vice president.

The Asian summits come days after midterm Congressional elections, which may determine Trump’s ability to withstand investigations into Russian campaign interference and election-season payments to alleged mistresses. While Democratic leaders have largely avoided talking about impeaching Trump, Republican losses in the House or the Senate would greatly increase the risk of congressional action.

Trump plans to visit Paris on 11 November for a commemoration of the armistice ending World War II, White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said in a statement. During his trip to South America to attend the G20 meeting, he will also travel to Colombia, she said.

After the US withdrawal from the TPP, trade ministers from the 11 remaining participant nations - Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam - signed a new agreement in Chile on 8 March.

Collin Koh Swee Lean, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said recent efforts by American officials in the region should help offset Trump’s absence. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced US$300 million in regional security funding at an ASEAN meeting earlier this month and the US military is currently among nine nations participating in the annual Southeast Asia Cooperation and Training exercises in Singapore.

“The US will still be regarded and expected to remain committed and engaged with the region and there’ll still be significant efforts of regional countries to keep the US presence in the region as the China shadow looms in the background,” Koh said. - Bloomberg