This year represents the 20th anniversary of the Stanley Cup drought for Canadian NHL franchises. It has been a much publicised and frustrating period within the country, each respective team having their diverse downfalls. Since the Montreal Canadiens captured the 1993 Stanley Cup only 5 out of 20 finals have featured a Canadian team: Vancouver (1994,2011), Calgary (2004), Edmonton (2006) and Ottawa (2007). All of them failed to defeat their American opposition. While the majority of American teams who win championships have just as many or more Canadian players than the Canadian franchises this fact is still not positive for the state of the sport in the country.

Stanley Cups bring a little bit of everything for a team, evidently far more than just the chance to drink champagne out of it. Winning a cup means that a club has experienced at the very least sixteen playoff games, equally important for revenue, to go with a spike in sales, merchandise and tickets. Even the most profitable teams such as Montreal or Toronto are not outliers when it comes to this fact. Both of them can consistently improve their fanbases, no matter how big they already are. A loss in the finals brings nothing close to this. If you are Vancouver it can even be counterproductive.

Twenty years and it is a streak that continues to hurt. So what are the chances that it ends this season? Last year two Canadian teams made the playoffs, and it was a massive surprise that Ottawa did. This year was expected to be the same. Most projections did not see any Canadian team qualifying from the Eastern Conference, two at best (Edmonton and Vancouver) from the West. If the playoffs started today all four Eastern Conference Canadian teams would make the cut, Vancouver would qualify from the West. In this post we will review the chances Western Canadian teams have to make the playoffs and contend for the Cup, Eastern teams tomorrow.

The Canadian heavyweight from the West as of late has consistently been the Vancouver Canucks. They are the only Canadian team to make two finals appearances since 1993, and the most recent losing in 7 games to Boston in the 2011 final. They are also Canada’s best hope of “bringing it home” this year. The main issue for the Canucks this season is well documented. Most of the provinces Boreal forest has been cut down to provide the infinite paper for news reports dedicated to the Canucks goaltending fiasco. By this time, Roberto Luongo was supposed to be a Leaf… or maybe even a Panther….. or was it a Flyer…. or was it Tampa? We can’t keep track anymore. What we do know is that he is still a Canuck, and along with Cory Schneider, the two represent the best goaltending tandem in the league. Sorry Elliot, Halak, and Allen.

Vancouver has found a way around this, seemingly anyway. Both goaltenders have played well this season and the club has benefited from this fact. But Vancouver has faced other problems this season, and these have prevented them from maximising their potential. Only Buffalo has a worse Powerplay; 13.3 % is simply not good enough. The Canucks used to be a team whose excuse for their lack of physical play was that they would draw penalties and then capitalize on the powerplay. No longer. This is of course not their only problem, but it is their most glaring.

That being said, the Canucks are in fine position at the moment. Many will remember that the last couple of years an elite powerplay has not been a necessity for Stanley Cup Champions. They currently sit five points into the playoffs with seventeen games remaining, a position which they should not relinquish. This is a team that simply has too much talent and depth to be kept out of the playoffs this year, and a slight slip of form recently will not continue for too long. The Canucks should also be able to compete for home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

The team hopes that once they get there, they will be able to add back Ryan Kesler. His presence would be a big boost to the powerplay, and the event strength work he provides as a Selke winning checker, as well as a goal scoring threat would be huge in taking this team and elevating them to Contender status. Kesler’s health also has a domino effect on the whole lineup, allowing at least one of Jannick Hansen and/or Mason Raymond (who are playing well on the second line right now) to become a third liner. This gives the Canucks added depth, and a healthy Kesler is the difference between a deep Canucks team that can role 4 lines at their opponents, and one that has a giant hole in their top 9 forwards.

This wasn’t the way it was supposed to happen for the young and talented Edmonton Oilers. All of the first round picks have done nothing but put them in a position to compete for another one. Most sources predicted them making the playoffs citing the short season as beneficial for its young team. A lot of them had already been playing full-time in the American Hockey League. The offseason had seen the acquisition of highly regarded defensive prospect Justin Shultz as well as the improvement of goaltender Devin Dubnyk.

None of this has translated into the winning totals that the Oilers require, despite being only three points out of the playoffs with games in hand. All that offensive talent and Edmonton has not been able to score whatsoever this season. They have the third worst ‘goals for’ total in the league, only having scored 72 so far. Sam Gagner has been a nice breakout for the Oilers but Ryan Nugent-Hopkins just hasn’t been good enough this season, registering only 11 points thus far. The sophomore slump, is hitting the Nuge hard. He has evidently not been the only one, as the struggle to find the twine has effected each player at various times this season.

If the Oilers were going to make the playoffs, or contend for their division as some expected, it would stem from an early season run that they would maintain in the later half. That run evidently never came, and if it hasn’t already then it is doubtful that it will. The Oilers will simply have to wait another year, hopefully one in which they finally can cushion their solid young core with some decent veterans. I predict that they are not going to make the playoffs this year.

The final Canadian Western team as well as the one with the worst current positioning in the standings is the Calgary Flames. The Flames are three points behind the Oilers and therefore six points out of the playoffs. Like the Oilers they have games in hand. Calgary was the club with the least expectations in the NHL West going into this season. So far they have delivered on that promise. The back of the Flames net has been bulging all season, 101 times to be precise. This leads all teams in the Conference.

But it may not all be doom and gloom for the Flames. After all they may have the best goaltender of any of the three Western Canadian teams. Mikka Kiprusoff will be very talked about as a possible asset to be moved at the deadline but should he remain he could lead a fourth quarter charge for the Flames. The deadline could in fact be the key factor in this charge, as the Flames seem to be a team shopping several different players. Captain Jarome Iginla could be one of those players. As a general rule if he leaves the club will certainly not make the playoffs.

For Calgary, this year could finally represent their decision to rebuild. This deadline will be an interesting indicator of the team’s direction. At the moment they continue not to deliver as their playoff chances continue to become more slim. Thankfully for them the NHL West is incredibly tight this season, essentially giving every team a chance to make the playoffs. During an advantageous year the Flames could be led by Kiprusoff into the post season. But this year the Western Conference is just too strong, all of the teams currently holding playoff positions are stronger than the Flames. Start the rebuild, it should have been started long ago.

While the NHL West represents the best hope for a Canadian Stanley Cup this year it will most likely also represent a fewer number of them. Edmonton and Calgary will likely finish the season out of the playoffs. One or both will be bottom dwellers. Vancouver will cruise into a playoff spot and from that point it will become clear how serious they are about avenging their 2011 Cup Finals loss.

The Cup drought could be ended by the Western half of Canada. But it is more than likely that Vancouver will represent the only stab at it.

Remember to check back tomorrow for a look at the Eastern Conference Canadian teams.

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