The Week That Was: 2017-07-08 (July 8, 2017)

Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)

The Science and Environmental Policy Project

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Quote of the Week. “Whoever is careless with the truth in small matters cannot be trusted with important matters: “– Albert Einstein

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Number of the Week: 39%

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THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

New Atmospheric Data? Roy Spencer responds to the recent paper by Mears and Wentz, who are principals in Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), competitors with the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). As speculated in last week’s TWTW, this may be part of an effort to discredit John Christy’s effective testimony on Capitol Hill that global climate models greatly overestimate the warming trend of the atmosphere. Spencer states:

“Before I go into the details, let’s keep all of this in perspective. Our globally-averaged trend is now about +0.12 C/decade, while the new RSS trend has increased to about +0.17 C/decade.

“Note these trends are still well below the average climate model trend for LT [Lower Troposphere], which is +0.27 C/decade.” [Boldface was italic in the original.]

What we see is that extending warming trends for a century, the models calculate a century-long trend of 1 degree C above the RSS calculations and 1.5 degrees C above the UAH calculations. The so-called “corrections” of 0.5 degrees C to the RSS data are not that significant when compared with the overestimates of the average of the global climate models.

Among other points, Spencer discusses the different techniques used by the two groups to adjust for the error in the diurnal cycle (daily pattern) in the climate models. UAH uses empirically derived adjustments, RSS uses model derived adjustments. As Spencer states:

“In general, it is difficult for us to follow the chain of diurnal corrections in the new RSS paper. Using a climate model to make the diurnal drift adjustments, but then adjusting those adjustments with empirical satellite data feels somewhat convoluted to us.”

See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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Surface Data: For some years, independent meteorologists such as Joseph D’Aleo have noticed a disturbing trend in historic data reported by certain government entities, such as NOAA, Ashville (previously called the National Climatic Data Center, now called the National Centers for Environmental Information). These historic data are used by NOAA, NASA and the Hadley CRU. Hadley CRU is a dataset developed at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in England and the Hadley Centre (the UK Met Office). In general, multiple adjustments were made to the historic data that reduced past warm periods. The net effect was to give a greater present day warming trend, than in the past.

For example, in the US, many long-term records were set in the 1930s, but the current, adjusted data does not show that decade as particularly hot, when compared to today. And, the US was the world-wide gold standard for temperature measurements.

A new study by Wallace, D’Aleo, and Idso systematically analyzes the Global Average Surface Temperatures reported by NOAA, NASA, and Hadley CRU. The results are striking. For example, Figure IV-1 shows five different plots of 5-year temperature trends by NASA-GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies on Broadway) produced from 1980 to 2015. The period around 1940 became progressively cooler in these plots. Similar adjustments have been made to the other datasets as well as to datasets for specific locations.

The study recognizes that adjustments to surface data may need to be changed, but the overall trend reflected in the changes appears to create a bias in the data. Further, strong cyclical patterns that once appeared are muted. A comprehensive review of the adjustments is in order.

Side note: Some of those who established the standards for US weather stations, which became the world-wide gold standard, were members of the oldest science society of Washington. As a past president of that society, this author finds the tarnishing of that standard particularly disturbing. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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Red Team / Blue Team: In several instances in congressional testimony, John Christy has called for a Red Team/Blue Team approach for addressing the US issues regarding climate science. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers such as the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) are well funded by government. They attribute climate change to primarily human activities, particularly carbon dioxide emissions.

As Christy points out, what is lacking is a well-funded Red Team:

“…[to] look at issues such as natural variability, the failure of climate models and the huge benefits to society from affordable energy, carbon-based and otherwise. I would expect such a team would offer to congress some very different conclusions regarding the human impacts on climate.”

One can liken this approach to the adversarial arguments in a criminal court of law. (CO2 is a criminal?) The reports of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change were intended to have a Red Team approach. However, the publisher, The Heartland Institute and other groups, do not have the deep, multi-billion-dollar pockets enjoyed by the IPCC, USGCRP, etc.

This idea appears to be gaining attention. In Climate Etc. Judith Curry discusses the idea more fully. We have had decades of spurious claims about the dangers of carbon dioxide, which is essential for life as we generally understand it. Such an approach may help dispel decades of myths such as a 97% consensus, CO2 can be seen from smoke-stacks, etc. It would be important to establish solid rules of evidence, such as unvalidated models are not hard evidence, and to avoid dogmatic participants. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Seeking a Common Ground.

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Executive Actions: The Constitution is a practical guide for government, limiting the powers of its branches. From this comes the popular term “checks and balances.” Increasingly, some of the executive actions of the prior administration are being discarded. Since these actions are not law, there is no reason for the current administration to keep them, should it so choose to change them. Increasingly, the Trump administration is reversing executive actions under the Obama administration.

The same can be said for the Paris Accord (Agreement) which the Obama administration sold to the public as an executive action and did not send to the Senate for two-thirds approval, as required by the Constitution for a treaty. The cries of those who expected great sums of money through the Paris agreement, such as Christiana Figueres, formerly Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), are not significant. They knowingly played a game, and lost. As discussed in last week’s TWTW, Ms. Figueres formed an organization expecting up to One Trillion Dollars a year. See Article # 1 and links under After Paris!

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Economic Return on Energy Investment: Writing for the Global Warming Policy Forum, Economics Professor Michael Kelly brings up an important concept that many writers on energy issues fail to consider: Economic Return on Energy Investment.

In the US, following the Civil War, fossil fuels such as coal quickly replaced biomass (wood) and muscle power (animal and human). The economy boomed. People found the care and feeding of a steam engine is much easier than the care and feeding of horses. City streets became much cleaner, and boots were no longer needed. What was important was not the number of people employed in a particular energy sector, but the employment the energy sector created in other economic sectors.

Kelly’s Economic Return on Energy Investment is a measure of the productivity of various energy types. He finds that 9% of the global GDP is tied up in energy, yielding a return of about 11:1. For coal and gas power plants, the return is about 50:1. For nuclear power plants it is about 70:1. The low values of traditional biomass, and other external issues bring the global value down to 11:1.

Applying this analysis to solar photovoltaics, he finds a return of less than 4:1; for wind power, a return of less than 8:1. In brief, there is not much opportunity for solar and wind to lift the third world to modern European standards. See links under Questioning European Green.

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Offshore Wind: Often, wind promoters claim offshore wind is reliable, even though it is becoming obvious that onshore wind is not. Writing in Energy Matters, Roger Andrews examines the validity of this claim for the world’s wind nation, Denmark, and finds it wanting – without considering added costs of salt water corrosion.

“Previous Energy Matters posts that highlight the difficulties of integrating intermittent wind power with the grid have been based dominantly on onshore wind data, but claims that offshore wind is significantly less erratic and will therefore be much easier to integrate with the grid have not been checked. This post reviews the question of whether it will. It finds that offshore wind is indeed less erratic than onshore wind but still nowhere near consistent enough to do away with the need for storage or conventional backup generation.”

Finding solid data is always a major problem for such studies, but he succeeds in finding a database for Denmark that separates onshore and offshore production. The analysis covers three years, 2014 to 2016. A small country, Denmark is ringed with offshore wind farms on three sides.

Rogers finds that offshore wind has a capacity factor of 43% as compared with onshore wind of 25%; but, also, that when wind dies onshore it does so offshore as well. Back-up is needed for both. Given that offshore wind costs about twice that of onshore, it is not much of a bargain. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind.

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Number of the Week: 39%: The island of El Hierro in the Canary Islands was to be a show-case of 100% wind power for electricity. Excess electricity would be used for pumped hydro storage, to be used when the wind failed to meet demand. After two full years of operation, the system provided 39.1% of the electricity needed. The balance came from diesel generators. The reservoirs are inadequate for the hydro component. But the circus continues with plans for wind supplying a higher percentage of total energy needs. Have those in the Pentagon who bragged about weather-dependent wind power helping the nation’s energy security heard of this island? See link under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind.

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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD

THE JACKSON

SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:

· The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.

· The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.

· The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.

· The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.

The five past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barack Obama, John Kerry, Ernest Moniz and John Holdren are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on July 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you. The award will be presented at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness in August.

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NEWS YOU CAN USE:

Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?

Closely Coupled: Solar Activity and Sea Level

Guest essay by David Archibald, ICECAP, July 3, 2017

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/closely_coupled_solar_activity_and_sea_level/

The Solar Harbinger

Guest essay by David Archibald, WUWT, July 5, 2017

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/07/05/the-solar-harbinger/

Censorship

University professors afraid to teach controversial subjects for fear of being sacked, conference hears

By Harry Yorke, Telegraph, UK, June 29, 2017

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/06/29/university-professors-afraid-teach-controversial-subjects-fear/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013

https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf

Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014

http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Full-Report.pdf

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Download with no charge

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Challenging the Orthodoxy

U.S. House Committee on Science, Space & Technology

Testimony of John R. Christy, Professor of Atmospheric Science, UAH, Mar 29, 2017

https://science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/HHRG-115-SY-WState-JChristy-20170329.pdf

Comments on the New RSS Lower Tropospheric Temperature Dataset

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, July 6, 2017

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/07/comments-on-the-new-rss-lower-tropospheric-temperature-dataset/

Exclusive: Study Finds Temperature Adjustments Account For ‘Nearly All Of The Warming’ In Climate Data

By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, July 5, 2017 [H/t GWPF]

http://dailycaller.com/2017/07/05/exclusive-study-finds-temperature-adjustments-account-for-nearly-all-of-the-warming-in-climate-data/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=thedcenergy

Link to report: On the Validity of NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU Global Average Surface Temperature Data & The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding

By Wallace, D’Aleo, and Idso, June 2017

https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/ef-gast-data-research-report-062717.pdf

New Research Report on the Validity of Global Average Surface Temperature Data and EPA’s GHG Endangerment Finding

By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, July 5, 2017

http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/3712

[SEPP Comment: See paper immediately above.]

China Met Office Confirms Global Warming Hiatus

By David Whitehouse, GWPF, July 4, 2017

https://www.thegwpf.com/china-recognises-the-warming-hiatus/

Inconvenient Math?

By Michael S. Bernstam, Hoover Institution, Via GWPF, July 3, 2017

https://www.thegwpf.com/michael-bernstam-inconvenient-math/

[SEPP Comment: Establishing a standard for evaluating the need for political action.]

Response to MIT President: Paris Exit Scientifically Sound (Part II)

By Willie Soon and Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, Master Resource, July 6, 2017

https://www.masterresource.org/climate-science/mit-president-exit-paris-ii/

Response to MIT President: Paris Exit Scientifically Sound (Part I)

By Willie Soon and Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, Master Resource, July 5, 2017

https://www.masterresource.org/climate-science/mit-president-exit-paris-i/

Defending the Orthodoxy

Scientists are starting to clear up one of the biggest controversies in climate science

By Chelsea Harvey, Washington Post, July 5, 2017

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/07/05/scientists-are-starting-to-clear-up-one-of-the-biggest-controversies-in-climate-science/?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.e42155214223

Link to paper: Slow climate mode reconciles historical and model-based estimates of climate sensitivity

By Cristian Proistosescu and Peter J. Huybers, Science Advances, July 5, 2017

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/7/e1602821

[SEPP Comment: See post by Nic Lewis in Climate Audit below. The Washington Post article has a great made-up graphic showing regional temperature change over the globe since 1880 – when there were few thermometers outside of the US and western Europe.]

France to end sales of gasoline, diesel vehicles by 2040

By Devin Henry, The Hill, July 6, 2017

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/340809-france-to-end-sales-of-gasoline-diesel-vehicles-by-2040

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Does a new paper really reconcile instrumental and model-based climate sensitivity estimates?

A guest post by Nic Lewis, Climate Audit, July 8, 2017

https://climateaudit.org/2017/07/08/does-a-new-paper-really-reconcile-instrumental-and-model-based-climate-sensitivity-estimates/

[SEPP Comment: Long post addressing the Proisosescu and Huybers paper above.]

Monumental, unsustainable environmental impacts

By Paul Driessen, ICECAP, July 2, 2017

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/in-the-news/monumental_unsustainable_environmental_impacts1/

The Uncertainty Monster: Lessons From Non-Orthodox Economics

By Vincent Randall, Climate Etc. July 5, 2017

https://judithcurry.com/2017/07/05/the-uncertainty-monster-lessons-from-non-orthodox-economics/#more-23186

“But good economists have to weigh up the strengths and weaknesses of the statistical material that they use before passing judgements.”

[SEPP Comment: The weighing of the statistical material must be articulated, frequently it is not.]

The Santer Clause

By John McLean, ICECAP, July 2, 2017

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/the_santer_clause1/

After Paris!

World Bank: Middle East conflicts impede climate and other objectives

By Daniel J. Graeber, Washington (UPI), Jun 19, 2017

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/World_Bank_Middle_East_conflicts_impede_climate_and_other_objectives_999.html

Forget Paris: 1600 New Coal Power Plants Built Around The World

By Hiroko Tabuchi, NYT, Via GWPF July 2, 2017

https://www.thegwpf.com/forget-paris-1600-new-coal-power-plants-to-be-built-around-the-world/

[SEPP Comment: The World Bank will not finance building of coal-fired power plants, but China will!]

What “Climate Leadership” Really Means — Lots More Coal

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, July 2, 2017

http://manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2017/7/2/what-climate-leadership-really-means-more-coal

Costliest Gas in World Clouds China’s Campaign for Bluer Skies

By Staff Writers, Bloomberg, July 4, 2017

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-04/costliest-gas-in-world-clouding-china-s-campaign-for-bluer-skies

“Progress has been steady but slow. Last year in Beijing, average concentrations of PM2.5 — small particles that pose the greatest risk to human health — fell almost 10 percent,…”

[SEPP Comment; Is PM2.5 the greatest risk to human health?]

Heavy reliance on coal is likely to stymie Japan’s climate agreement goals

By Yuka Obayashi and Ami Miyazaki, Japan Times, July 5, 2017 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/07/05/national/heavy-reliance-coal-likely-stymie-japans-climate-agreement-goals/#.WVzgwIjyuUl

Global socialists vs. national capitalists

The climate accord is another vehicle to transport wealth to struggling socialist systems

By Anthony Sadar, Washington Tomes, June 29, 2017

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jun/29/climate-accord-will-transfer-wealth-to-socialist-c/

Russia as Media Manipulator: Nothing New

By Charles Battig, American Thinker, June 27, 2017

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2017/06/russia_as_media_manipulator_nothing_new.html

Change in US Administrations

Pruitt will launch program to ‘critique’ climate science

By Emily Holden, E&E News, June 30, 2017

https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060056858

Change in US Administrations — Favor

Opening a New Era for U.S. Offshore Energy

By Mark Green, Energy Tomorrow, June 29, 2017

http://energytomorrow.org/blog/2017/06/29/opening-a-new-era-for-us-offshore-energy

Rick Perry’s Plans for US Energy Dominance

By Fred Lucas, the Daily Signal, July 5, 2017 [H/t Cooler Heads]

http://dailysignal.com/2017/07/05/rick-perrys-plans-for-us-energy-dominance/

Why Trump is right about wind power and his detractors are wrong

By Isaac Orr and Fred Palmer, The Heartland Institute, The Des Moines Register, June 28, 2017

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2017/06/28/why-trump-right-wind-power-and-his-detractors-wrong/435598001/

Problems in the Orthodoxy

Climate change not an objective for UK at G20 as Theresa May meets Donald Trump

The Prime Minister has not made the environment one of her four key priorities

By Jon Stone, The Independent, UK, July 7, 2017 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/g20-climate-change-theresa-may-donald-trump-uk-paris-climate-agreement-accord-a7826846.html

Seeking a Common Ground

Trump administration plans to challenge climate science in series of debates

Groups look to reverse scientific findings underlying U.S. regulations on greenhouse gas emissions

By Staff Writers, Thomson Reuters, July 5, 2017 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/trump-challenge-climate-science-1.4190809

What is red teaming?

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. July 3, 2017

https://judithcurry.com/2017/07/03/what-is-red-teaming/#more-23173

Red Teaming Climate Change

By Ron Bailey, Reason Online, July 6, 2017 [H/t GWPF]

http://reason.com/blog/2017/07/06/red-teaming-climate-chang1

“Assume that the Trump administration can actually find and persuade qualified people to participate in good faith with climate Red Teams. Is it reasonable to hope that the results of such an exercise would actually change climate-change partisans’ minds? Probably not, but we may as well give it a try.”

Leading Climate Scientist Says Debating Scientific Theories Would Be ‘Un-American’

You’d think the 97 percent of scientists who supposedly all agree about climate change would eagerly line up to vanquish climate deniers—but apparently not.

By Julie Kelly, The Federalist, July 6, 2017

http://thefederalist.com/2017/07/06/leading-climate-scientist-science-debate-un-american/

The Laws of Averages: Part 2, A Beam of Darkness

Guest Essay by Kip Hansen, WUWT, June 19, 2017

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06/19/the-laws-of-averages-part-2-a-beam-of-darkness/

“In a broad general sense, the availability of these software packages now allows students and researchers to make [often unfounded] claims for their data by using statistical methods to arrive at numerical results — all without understanding either the methods or the true significance or meaning of the results.”

Science, Policy, and Evidence

Dr Birol’s Melchett Lecture 2017

By John Constable, GWPF, July 5, 2017

https://www.thegwpf.com/dr-birols-melchett-lecture-2017/

“No one could possibly be offended, or positively informed.

[Afterward] “Walking down Albermarle Street and through the thronging crowds and frantic traffic of Piccadilly I had the strong impression that if climate policy were to continue on its present track it would have to rely on an increasingly coercive, even authoritarian policy environment. Dr Birol didn’t say anything of the kind, of course. That was just my heart speaking.”

Models v. Observations

Another paper shows that climate models and climate reality vary – greatly

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, June 28, 2017

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06/28/173948/

Measurement Issues — Surface

Feds: 2017 is US’s second-warmest year on record so far

By Devin Henry, The Hill, July 7, 2017

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/341027-feds-2017-is-uss-second-warmest-year-on-record-so-far

Link to report: U.S. saw 2nd warmest year to date on record and warmer-than-average June

Nation has experienced 9 billion-dollar disasters so far, including 3 tornado outbreaks

By Staff Writers, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, July 7, 2017

http://www.noaa.gov/news/us-saw-2nd-warmest-year-to-date-on-record-and-warmer-than-average-june

[SEPP Comment: How would it compare with the 1930s prior to recent “adjustments”?]

On Sunday, Goulburn got colder than the BOM thought was possible (and a raw data record was “adjusted”).

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 6, 2017

http://joannenova.com.au/2017/07/on-sunday-goulburn-got-colder-than-the-bom-thought-was-scientificially-possible-and-a-raw-data-record-was-adjusted/

Measurement Issues — Atmosphere

UAH Global Temperature Update for June, 2017: +0.21 deg. C

Lowest global temperature anomaly in last 2 years (since July, 2015)

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, July 3, 2017

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/07/uah-global-temperature-update-for-june-2017-0-21-deg-c/

UAH Map and Graph for June 2017

http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2017/june/JUNE_2017%20map.png

http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2017/june/tlt_update_bar_062017.jpg

Changing Weather

Deadly heat wave spurs record electricity use across Southwest

By Sammy Roth, the Desert Sun, June 26, 2017

http://www.desertsun.com/story/tech/science/energy/2017/06/27/deadly-heat-wave-spurs-record-electricity-use-across-southwest/429474001/

Record breaking cold weather hits Australia’s south east

No Wonder it was difficult getting out of bed this morning. If you’re desperate for days to get warmer, we have some good news.

By Benedict Brook, News. Com, AU, July 3, 2017 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/record-breaking-cold-weather-hits-australias-south-east/news-story/50906eac539b4fa9303ae95302b7f36b

The ‘killer winter’ that took a harsh toll on America’s wildlife: Experts reveal western US experienced huge losses

Deep snow and movement between cold and subzero temperatures caused chaos with ice and snow forming

Prolonged snow cover on winter grounds made it difficult for to find food

Spells of bitter cold made matters worse for animals by hardening the snow

Wildlife managers are reducing hunting permits in the hard-hit areas

By Staff Writers, Daily Mail, July 5, 2017

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4659236/Harsh-winter-took-heavy-toll-wildlife-western-US.html

Changing Climate

Study: California once had 150 straight years of stormy, wet, weather

By Anthony Wattts, WUWT, June 20, 2017

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06/20/study-california-once-had-150-straight-years-of-stormy-wet-weather/

Before this “8.2 ka event” was discovered scientists thought the world’s climate had been unusually stable during the Holocene, the geological epoch that covers the last 11,700 years of Earth’s history.

[SEPP Comment: Unable to link to paper. The Holocene was stable?]

Changing Seas

Claim: Oceans are warming rapidly, study says

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, June 30, 2017

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06/30/claim-oceans-are-warming-rapidly-study-says/

Link to paper: Consensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses

By Gongjie Wang, Lijing Cheng. John Abraham, and Chongyin Li, Climate Dynamics, June 12, 2017

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-017-3751-5

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Impressive Cold in Greenland and Near Record Accumulations of Snow and Ice

By Paul Dorian, Vencore, Inc. July 6, 2017 [H/t GWPF]

https://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2017/7/6/115-pm-impressive-cold-in-greenland-and-near-record-accumulations-of-snow-and-ice

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Estimating the cost to America of damage from climate change in the 21st century

By Larry Kummer, Climate Etc. July 1, 2017

https://judithcurry.com/2017/07/01/estimating-the-cost-to-america-of-damage-from-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/#more-23162

[SEPP Comment: Kummer exposes another doubtful paper.]

Rising seas could result in 2 billion refugees by 2100

Press Release by Lindsey Hadlock, Cornell University, June 23, 2017 [H/t Energy Matters]

http://mediarelations.cornell.edu/2017/06/23/rising-seas-could-result-in-2-billion-refugees-by-2100/

Link to paper: Impediments to inland resettlement under conditions of accelerated sea level rise

By Charles Geisler and Ben Currens, Land Use Policy July 2017

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837715301812

“’We’re going to have more people on less land and sooner that we think,’ said lead author Charles Geisler, professor emeritus of development sociology at Cornell. ‘The future rise in global mean sea level probably won’t be gradual. Yet few policy makers are taking stock of the significant barriers to entry that coastal climate refugees, like other refugees, will encounter when they migrate to higher ground.’”

Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?

Pop Quiz: To get cheaper electricity should we build a/ new coal plant, or b/ pay $3b in renewable subsidies?

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 3, 2017

http://joannenova.com.au/2017/07/pop-quiz-to-get-cheaper-electricity-should-we-build-a-new-coal-plant-or-b-pay-3b-in-renewable-subsidies/

Questioning European Green

Michael Kelly: A Challenge For Renewable Energies

By Prof Michael J Kelly, Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, GWPF, July 5, 2017

https://www.thegwpf.com/michael-kelly-a-challenge-for-renewable-energies/

Link to prior study: A Primer on Energy and the Economy: Energy’s Large Share of the Economy Requires Caution in Determining Policies That Affect It

By Staff Writers, IER, Feb 16, 2010

http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/a-primer-on-energy-and-the-economy-energys-large-share-of-the-economy-requires-caution-in-determining-policies-that-affect-it/

New Study Concludes Europe Will Always Require 100% Back-Up By Conventional Energy

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 5, 2017

http://notrickszone.com/2017/07/05/new-study-concludes-europe-will-always-require-100-back-up-by-conventional-energy/#sthash.89xZFZFb.dpbs

Green Jobs

The left’s misleading green jobs claims

Renewable energy workers produce relatively little power

By H. Sterling Burnett, Washington Times, July 6 2017 [H/t Cooler Heads]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jul/6/green-jobs-forecast-by-left-is-unfounded/

Litigation Issues

Trump’s EPA suffers court defeat on Obama methane rules

By John Siciliano, Washington Examiner, July 3, 2017

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trumps-epa-suffers-court-defeat-on-obama-methane-rules/article/2627706

Subsidies and Mandates Forever

The Empire Strikes Back: Britain’s solar revival

By Liam Stoker, PVTech, July 4, 2017

https://www.pv-tech.org/editors-blog/the-empire-strikes-back-britains-solar-revival

Today the UK solar industry celebrates Solar Independence Day.

[SEPP Comment: Independence from government? Subsidies are not needed if government mandates are in place.]

Energy Issues – Non-US

Barrel Half Empty

By Sarah Miller, Energy Intelligence, July 2017

http://beta.energyintel.com/world-energy-opinion/barrel-half-empty/

Germans’ Electric Bills Soar While Their Climate Protection Sinks

By Jacob Grandstaff, Capital Research Center, July 5, 2017 [H/t GWPF]

https://capitalresearch.org/article/germans-electric-bills-soar-while-their-climate-protection-sinks/

Onshore Wind and Solar Power Generate Miniscule Amounts Of Power In England

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 2, 2017

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2017/07/02/onshore-wind-and-solar-power-generate-miniscule-amounts-of-power-in-england/

[SEPP Comment: As with US EIA data, one must separate biomass and hydro from renewable data to get the impact of wind and solar, which is minimal.]

Will 2017 Be the Year the UK Finally Embraces Shale?

By Staff Writers, The American Interest, July 5, 2017

https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/07/05/will-2017-year-uk-finally-embraces-shale/

Energy Issues — Australia

The Disastrous Electricity Situation In Australia

By Bryan Leland, GWPF, July 4, 2017

https://www.thegwpf.com/the-disastrous-electricity-situation-in-australia/

Tesla To Build Battery Backup For S Australia

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 7, 2017

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2017/07/07/tesla-to-build-battery-backup-for-s-australia/

News report: Tesla to build world’s largest lithium ion battery in Australia

By Staff Writers, BBC, July 7, 2017

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-40527784

“In other words, enough to run for about 80 minutes. Musk previously quoted a price of $250/KW, which works out at $25 million.”

Electricity cost train-wreck arrives in Australia

Something very “seismic” has happened to our electricity prices.

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 7, 2017

http://joannenova.com.au/2017/07/electricity-cost-train-wreck-arrives-in-australia/

Wind disappears in South Australia, costing wind-industry millions, BOM blames climate change even though models predicted faster winds

By Jo Nova, Here Blog, July 5, 2017

http://joannenova.com.au/2017/07/wind-disappears-in-south-australia-costing-wind-industry-millions-bom-blames-climate-change-even-though-models-predicted-faster-winds/

Energy Issues — US

Even as renewables increase, fossil fuels continue to dominate U.S. energy mix

By Michael Mobila, EIA, July 3, 2017

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=31892&src=email

After $3 billion spent, Keystone XL can’t get oil companies to sign on

By Christopher M. Matthews and Bradley Olson, June 29, 2017

http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/06/29/after-3-billion-spent-keystone-xl-cant-get-oil-companies-to-sign-on.html

EPA proposes cutting biofuels mandate for 2018

By Devin Henry, The Hill, July 5, 2017

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/340726-epa-proposes-cutting-biofuels-mandate-for-2018

[SEPP Comment: The renewable fuel standard is an obsolete law. The new regulations do not meet the targets for cellulosic and advanced biofuels – recognizing they are not available.]

Washington’s Control of Energy

[Department of Interior Secretary] Zinke orders end to drilling permit delays on federal lands

By John Siciliano, Washington Examiner, July 6, 2017

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/zinke-orders-end-to-drilling-permit-delays-on-federal-lands/article/2627904

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

North America Is Making OPEC Irrelevant

By Staff Writers, The American Interest, July 2, 2017

https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/07/02/north-america-making-opec-irrelevant/

“This all adds up to a truth that the oil historian Daniel Yergin hit on last year: ‘[t]he era of Opec as a decisive force in the world economy is over.’

[SEPP Comment: OPEC is irrelevant for US and Canadian energy security; but, not for determining world oil prices.]

U.S. Shale Revolution Has Arrived In Britain

By Staff Writer, Financial Times, Via GWPF, July 6, 2017

https://www.thegwpf.com/u-s-shale-revolution-has-arrived-in-britain/

[SEPP Comment: Chart of LNG from Sabine Pass by importing country: top 10 are, in descending order: Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Japan, China, Jordon, South Korea, India, Turkey, Kuwait.]

With A Permian Well, They Cried More, More, More – Gas Takeaway Constraints Pose Challenge For Crude

By Housley Carr, RBN Energy, June 27, 2017

https://rbnenergy.com/from-a-permian-well-they-cried-more-more-more-gas-takeaway-constraints-pose-challenge-for-crude

[SEPP Comment: Take this gas please!]

Return of King Coal?

Coal Boom: 1600 new plants in 62 countries around the world – increasing 43%

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 4, 2017

http://joannenova.com.au/2017/07/coal-boom1600-new-plants-in-62-countries-around-the-world-increasing-43/

Oil Spills, Gas Leaks, Earthquakes & Consequences

Hydraulic fracturing rarely linked to felt seismic tremors

Researchers find only one hydrocarbon-producing area where production is linked to increased seismic activities at the regional scale

Press Release, University of Alberta, June 26, 2017 [H/t Toshio Fujita]

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/06/170626124338.htm

Link to paper: Human-induced seismicity and large-scale hydrocarbon production in the USA and Canada

By Mirko van der Baan and Frank J. Calixto, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, July 6, 2017

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GC006915/abstract;jsessionid=3DEE410265420BA5D9D77B1B833A2C09.f04t04

Nuclear Energy and Fears

Nuclear Power v. Renewable Subsidies

By Roger O’Neill, CEI, July 5, 2017

https://cei.org/blog/nuclear-power-v-renewable-subsidies

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Can offshore wind be integrated with the grid?

By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, July 7, 2017

http://euanmearns.com/can-offshore-wind-be-integrated-with-the-grid/#more-18852

El Hierro June 2017 performance update – GdV completes two years of operation

By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, July 3, 2017

http://euanmearns.com/el-hierro-june-2017-performance-update-gdv-completes-two-years-of-operation/

Energy & Environmental Newsletter:

By John Droz Jr. Master Resource, July 3, 2017

https://www.masterresource.org/alliance-for-wise-energy-decisions/energy-environmental-newsletter-july-3-2017/

Floating Offshore Wind Has Come of Age. Now It’s Ready to Scale

By Jason Deign, Green Tech Media, July 6, 2017

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/floating-offshore-wind-has-come-of-age-now-its-ready-to-scale

“By 2030, MAKE Consulting, which is owned by GTM’s parent company Wood Mackenzie, predicts around 4 gigawatts of floating offshore capacity will have been installed worldwide.

This is a drop in the ocean compared to the almost 1,260 gigawatts of wind capacity that the Global Wind Energy Council expects to see installed by 2030, under its most conservative forecast.”

[SEPP Comment: No discussion of salt water corrosion.]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

Exxon Makes a Biofuel Breakthrough

By Jennifer Dlougy, Bloomberg, June 19, 2017

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-19/genome-decoder-s-fatty-algae-is-biofuel-breakthrough-for-exxon

[SEPP Comment: Will green groups consider fuel from GMO algae morally wrong?]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

Are electric cars going mainstream?

By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, July 7, 2017

http://scientific-alliance.org/scientific-alliance-newsletter/are-electric-cars-going-mainstream

Volvo Going Green

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 7, 2017

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2017/07/07/28567/

Carbon Schemes

Another blow to CCS, as EU power giants bow out of Dutch project

By Sophie Vorrath, Renew Economy, June 30, 2017

http://reneweconomy.com.au/another-blow-ccs-eu-power-giants-bow-dutch-project-18852/

Carbon Capture wrong technology, says new report

By D.C. Fraser, Regina Leader Post, July 7, 2017 [H/t GWPF]

http://leaderpost.com/news/politics/carbon-capture-wrong-technology-says-new-report

Blowout Week 183

By Roger Andres, Energy Matters, July 1, 2017

http://euanmearns.com/blowout-week-183/

“Our lead story this week features carbon capture and storage. CCS has been on life support for some time, but with the failure of the flagship Kemper project even the greens are now asking whether it’s an economically viable emissions-reduction technology, and when the greens start asking such questions we can be sure it isn’t.”

California Dreaming

California governor to host climate summit amid clash with Trump

By Reid Wilson, The Hill, July 6, 2017

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/340838-california-governor-to-host-climate-summit-amid-clash-with-trump

Health, Energy, and Climate

‘We’re Going To Insist That Any Barrier Be Science-Based’: Trump Administration On Food

By Hank Campbell, ACSH, June 19, 2017

http://www.acsh.org/news/2017/06/19/were-going-insist-any-barrier-be-science-based-trump-administration-food-11444

The New Dark Age: EU Court Issues Insane Ruling On Vaccines

By Alex Berezow, ACSH, June 21, 2017

http://www.acsh.org/news/2017/06/21/new-dark-age-eu-court-issues-insane-ruling-vaccines-11468

Environmental Industry

The prophets of eco-doom: a perfect record of failure

By Hal G.P. Colebatch, News Weekly, July 3, 2017 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.newsweekly.com.au/article.php?id=57698

Other Scientific News

Researchers find out how bromine fits into Venusian chemistry

By Staff Writers, Moscow, Russia (SPX), Jul 03, 2017

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Researchers_find_out_how_bromine_fits_into_Venusian_chemistry_999.html

Link to paper: Search for HBr and bromine photochemistry on Venus

By Vladimir A. Krasnopolskya and Denis A. Belyaevb, Icarus, Sep 1, 2017

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0019103516307837

“Since the 1960s, numerous space probes have been sent to Venus. Because 17 out of 24 successful missions were launched by the Soviet Union, scientists dubbed it ‘the Russian planet.’ Back in the middle of the 20th century, sci-fi writers imagined Venus as a habitable planet covered entirely by ocean, expecting that it would welcome future generations of earthlings.

“But the ‘morning star’ had many surprises in store for its would-be colonists. The first Soviet probes that attempted to land on Venus were crushed by immense pressures in the lower atmosphere before they could reach the surface of the planet.

“The temperature of the surface of Venus and its lower atmosphere is extremely high: 460 degrees Celsius at the surface, and atmospheric pressure on Venus is 93 times that on Earth. Under these extreme conditions, rather peculiar compounds are formed and released into Venusian atmosphere, such as hydrogen chloride and hydrogen fluoride.”

Other News that May Be of Interest

Are asteroids humanity’s ‘greatest challenge’?

By Mari�tte Le Roux, Paris (AFP), June 28, 2017

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Are_asteroids_humanitys_greatest_challenge_999.html

The Sixth Genesis: A Man-Made, Mass-Speciation Event

By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, July 3, 2017

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/mass-speciation/

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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:

Kites Could Be the Future of Wind Power

UK company Kite Power Systems is developing a way to draw power from high-altitude winds.

By Avery Thompson, Popular Mechanics, July 5, 2017

http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a27183/kites-future-of-wind-power/

Not all beer and skittles

By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions, July 4, 2017

http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/8367

“According to Jim Salinger, a climate scientist at New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, the warming globe will likely cause a decline in the production of malting barley, which, when combined with the scarcity of hops right now, stands to have a profound and negative impact on the world’s beer supply starting now, and for decades to come.

“’It will mean either there will be pubs without beer or the cost of beer will go up,’ Salinger told the Institute of Brewing and Distilling convention. He said climate change could cause a drop in beer production within 30 years, especially in parts of Australia, as dry areas become drier and water shortages worsen. Treehugger, 10 Apr 2008

[SEPP Comment: Will “The pub with no beer” become “the song” of Australia?]

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ARTICLES:

1. Pruitt’s Clean Water Break

Obama’s legacy of rule by decree is rapidly being undone.

Editorial, WSJ, July 2, 2017

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pruitts-clean-water-break-1499030184

The editorial states:

“President Trump is having a hard time getting legislation through Congress, but his Administration is moving fast to roll back Barack Obama’s pen- and-a-phone lawmaking. The latest example, which barely registered in the press, is the Environmental Protection Agency’s decision last week to rescind the unilateral rewrite of the Clean Water Act.

“The Obama EPA in 2015 redefined “waters of the United States” under the Clean Water Act to include any land with a “significant nexus” to a navigable waterway. Several arbitrary thresholds were used to determine significance, such as land within a 100-year floodplain and 1,500 feet of the high-water mark of waters under government jurisdiction. The rule extended the government’s writ to prairie potholes, vernal pools and backyard creeks.

“Thirty-one states sued the feds for violating the Administrative Procedure Act, and the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals enjoined the rule nationwide. Now Administrator Scott Pruitt is putting the rule on ice while the EPA works up a replacement. Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy muddied the waters with his controlling opinion in the 2006 Rapanos v. U.S. case that conceived the new “significant nexus” standard, which the Obama EPA used as a pretext to pursue its water land grab.

Side comment: Piles of wet leaves have been arbitrarily been considered proof of “waters of the United States”, leaving the landowner with no recourse but seeking relief by expensive litigation.

“Mr. Pruitt said the EPA will propose a new rule ‘in accordance with Supreme Court decisions, agency guidance, and longstanding practice’ that would ‘return power to the states and provide regulatory certainty.’ Consider it another lesson in the limits of pen-and-phone rule by decree.”

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