Last week, I wrote a piece looking at what needed to happen for both North Carolina FC and the Charlotte Independence to make the playoffs. Since that time, the standings have changed. The Charleston Battery are in, but where do the two North Carolina teams stand in their pursuit of the postseason?

Let’s set the scene a week later and with an all-important game Wednesday night: Four teams have clinched the playoffs. leaving only four playoff spots available. Three teams have been mathematically eliminated from the postseason.

That leaves nine teams competing for those four spots.

I took a look at the remaining games for those nine teams and took my best guess at the results, and came to the conclusion that ending the season with 45 points is likely the absolute minimum to be in contention for the postseason. Ending with 46 or more points would likely secure your spot.

Here’s how things look for each team.

Charlotte Independence

Charlotte cannot catch the current fifth-place team, Indy Eleven. In order to catch sixth-place Bethlehem, the Independence would have to win out and the Steel would need to earn no more than one point in their last two matches. This likely means that Charlotte is competing for one of those final two playoff spots.

In order for Charlotte to hit that 45-point threshold to be in contention, it would have to win two of its remaining three matches and at least draw the other. At 38 points currently, the Independence would sit at 47 points if they won out, and I believe that would secure their postseason spot.

Charlotte’s remaining schedule is not as daunting as it may have seemed a week ago. They travel to take on 13th-place Penn FC tonight, continue on the road against the 11th-place Tampa Bay Rowdies Saturday and finish at home against North Carolina FC Oct. 13.

North Carolina FC

North Carolina FC is in significantly better shape than Charlotte. The Dead Whales are already sitting on 44 points so would only need one draw in their last three matches to hit 45. Two draws would get them to what I’m expecting to be the minimum needed: 46.

The downside for North Carolina is that all of its upcoming opponents are highly motivated to secure victories over the lads from Cary. They will host the 10th-place New York Red Bulls II in their final home game of the season Saturday. They then hit the road for their final two matches against Louisville City (Oct. 9), which will be looking to hold on to its second-place position, and Charlotte (Oct. 13).

If things go poorly for NCFC, the final 2018 round of the NC Derby in Matthews could be a play-in game to the Eastern Conference Playoffs.

Can both teams make the postseason?

As mentioned above, it would be nearly impossible for Charlotte to jump Indy and Bethlehem. If both North Carolina teams are to make the playoffs, they would almost certainly be joined by those two teams. That means Nashville, New York, Tampa Bay and Ottawa would all need to miss the playoffs.

The real question is, is this even possible?

The Independence may be looking to North Carolina and Charleston to help them out. Charlotte will want the Battery to take all three points against Ottawa Oct. 13 to keep the Fury at 45 points. With Ottawa at 13 league wins and Charlotte at only nine, the Independence would have to win all three remaining games to beat the Fury on total points because they would lose on that first tiebreaker.

But it is not that simple. The Independence would also need to keep Nashville, New York and Tampa Bay from hitting or exceeding that 46-point total. One win for Tampa would put them at 12 wins and they would win out on goal differential, barring some incredible blowouts for Charlotte, if they get to 46. If either Nashville or New York got their win total to 12, they would beat Charlotte on points.

The most likely team that would prevent both teams from playing in the post-season is Nashville, which has games against two eliminated teams in Atlanta United 2 and Richmond remaining in addition to a match up against first-place FC Cincinnati.

All of those scenarios considered, it is nearly impossible for both teams to make it to the postseason, but stranger things have happened. We’ll know more after the game tonight: A loss for Charlotte would virtually eliminate them from the chase and all eyes could focus on NCFC’s final three games.