UPDATE, March 10: Questions regarding compensatory picks and the transition tag have been added. Read this article for reference.

Introduction

For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this article.

To kick this off, 2016 marks the first year in which I have used, as suggested by the resolution allowing comp picks to be traded on December 2, 2015, a “rank[ing] against all players in the League who are on rosters at the end of the season”. At the end of the 2015 season, OTC’s database had a total of 2088 players that were either on the active roster or injured reserve. As explained in the general methodology in the previous link, the cutoffs for each round and for qualifying as a compensatory free agent (CFA) have been established by this projection on certain percentile ranks of all players on the active roster and injured reserve at the end of the regular season, sorted by adjusted APY in descending order and also represented by the player at the cutoff point. For 2016, these cutoffs are as follows:

Round Adjusted APY Overall Rank Representative Player 3rd/4th $9,211,020 104 Julius Thomas 4th/5th $6,336,550 209 D’Qwell Jackson 5th/6th $4,210,067 313 Morris Claiborne 6th/7th $3,014,251 418 DJ Fluker 7th/Qualify $733,838 1044 Seyi Ajirotutu

Before we get to the final projection, I’d like you to take particular notice of the player that represents the exact halfway point of the ranked list I have built, as this is a critical player for a certain team as I’ll explain later. Ajirotutu, a former Charger, was signed by the Eagles on a minimum salary benefit deal of $825,000, but played almost exclusively on special teams, thus incurring near the maximum downward adjustment possible that I have for playing time. Therefore, what my formula is telling me is every CFA on a MSB deal should qualify. However, I’ll emphasize a caveat to that: I do not have full confidence that my snap count adjustments are perfectly accurate, especially on that minimum qualifying level, and there will likely be some errors near each cutoff. My hope is that once I see this year’s official release, I will be able to better adjust my snap count adjustments for future projections, in 2017 and beyond. Rest assured, I will explain what will happen if I have any of those players in the wrong classification in the “Possible Altering Scenarios” at the bottom.

The Projection

With the above in place, here is current projection for the 2015 compensatory picks (the programmed version can be found here):

Team Rd. Compensated Player Unadjusted APY Adjusted APY DET 3 Ndamukong Suh $19,047,500 $20,582,729 NE 3 Darrelle Revis $14,000,000 $15,126,515 SEA 3 Byron Maxwell $10,500,000 $11,127,900 DEN 3 Julius Thomas $9,100,000 $9,211,020 GB 4 Tramon Williams $7,000,000 $7,987,000 SF 4 Chris Culliver $8,000,000 $7,809,600 BAL 4 Pernell McPhee $7,575,000 $7,765,890 BAL 4 Torrey Smith $7,050,000 $7,492,740 DEN 4 Orlando Franklin $7,100,000 $7,418,260 DAL 4 Jermey Parnell $6,400,000 $7,317,760 GB 4 Davon House $6,125,000 $6,664,000 CLE 4 Buster Skrine $6,250,000 $6,543,750 ARI 5 Dan Williams $6,250,000 $6,152,460 CLE 5 Jabaal Sheard $5,500,000 $5,566,000 SEA 5 James Carpenter $4,775,000 $5,557,145 CLE 5 Brian Hoyer $5,250,000 $5,373,900 SF 5 Perrish Cox $5,000,000 $5,213,000 SD 5 Eddie Royal $5,000,000 $4,990,000 NE 5 Vince Wilfork $4,500,000 $4,579,200 DET 5 Nick Fairley $4,500,000 $4,422,600 BAL 5 Owen Daniels $4,083,333 $4,325,066 SF 6 Frank Gore $4,000,000 $4,139,200 DAL 6 Bruce Carter $4,250,000 $4,104,650 SF 6 Dan Skuta $4,100,000 $4,024,560 NE 6 Shane Vereen $4,016,667 $3,966,057 SEA 6 Malcolm Smith $3,250,000 $3,777,475 DAL 6 Henry Melton $3,750,000 $3,761,250 DAL 6 Justin Durant $3,600,000 $3,726,720 SD 6 Ryan Mathews $3,666,667 $3,492,134 DEN 6 Terrance Knighton $3,450,000 $3,380,310 NE 7 Akeem Ayers $3,000,000 $3,003,000 PIT 7 Brice McCain $2,750,000 $2,878,700 Compensation over 32-pick limit; not awarded CLE 7 Miles Austin $2,300,000 $2,254,000 SEA 7 O’Brien Schofield $1,700,000 $1,708,840 DEN 7 Jacob Tamme $1,600,000 $1,672,640 CIN 7 Marshall Newhouse $1,425,000 $1,536,435 BAL 7 Tyrod Taylor $1,116,667 $1,208,010 DET 7 Kellen Davis $950,000 $938,980 KC 7 Thomas Gafford $950,000 $904,020 KC 7 Kevin Vickerson $950,000 $843,363 WAS 7 EJ Biggers $745,000 $747,086 GB 7 Jamari Lattimore $825,000 $743,325 CAR 7 net value 283.3%

Note that although there are 43 eligible compensatory picks listed in this projection, each year only exactly 32 picks are awarded. Therefore, the picks that rank 33rd and lower are not awarded, although the official release will acknowledge their presence, as this list does with strikethrough text.

I should probably note that the total number of eligible comp picks will almost certainly be a record high, even if I’ve underestimated the qualification cutoff point. It is my opinion that this is partly due to luck, but also partly due to more and more teams understanding and exploiting the comp pick system in order to maximize the amount of picks they can get.

Qualifying Questions

There is only one relevant player I foresee being a close call as far as qualifying as a CFA that is unrelated to being in the top half of all players on rosters at the end of the regular season. That player is Rob Housler. Formerly of the Arizona Cardinals, Housler signed a 1 year, $1.75 million deal with the Cleveland Browns on April 9. Housler was active for six games, was placed on injured reserve on November 4 (two days after Week 8), and was then released from IR on November 17, one day after Week 10. Because Housler remained on the Browns’ roster when Week 10 concluded, I’m projecting that he’ll qualify, but the release is close enough to the critical Week 10 date that there’s a chance he doesn’t qualify. If he doesn’t, then it will jeopardize Arizona’s only projected comp pick, and will trivially improve one of Cleveland’s comp picks.

For reference, here are the list of relevant cut CFAs projected to either to qualify or not qualify depending on which side of the Week 10 cutoff (November 16) they were released.

Non-qualifying Cut CFAs Qualifying Cut CFAs Player Old Team New Team Date Cut Player Old Team New Team Date Cut Jed Collins DET DAL 5/18 Rob Housler ARI CLE 11/17 Taylor Mays SF CIN 8/25 Thomas Gafford KC CHI 11/28 Josh Johnson SF CIN 8/28 Miles Austin CLE PHI 12/7 Denarius Moore OAK CIN 8/31 Jimmy Wilson MIA SD 12/15 James Dockery CAR OAK 9/1 Leonard Hankerson WAS ATL 12/15 Robert McClain ATL NE 9/5 Jason Trusnik MIA CAR 9/5 Larry Dean BUF TB 9/5 Jasper Brinkley MIN DAL 9/7 Mitch Unrein DEN SD 9/24 Shareece Wright SD SF 10/10 Bradley Fletcher PHI NE 10/10

There are three other groups of players that I strongly believe will qualify, because they were listed as Unrestricted Free Agents in the NFL’s official release at the start of the 2015 league year. But the situations surrounding these three groups should be noted just in case:

New England structured the contracts of Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, and Vince Wilfork to contain team options on years beyond 2014. The Patriots declined the options on all three of those players. Since they were listed as UFAs, the actions should be interpreted as voided contracts that make these players eligible to become CFAs, even though New England had a way to retain them. New England likely knows this, as well, since in 2009 they got a comp pick for Donte Stallworth using a similar team option declination. A similar team option was also declined by Dallas on the contract of Henry Melton, who later signed a deal with Tampa Bay. Like with the Patriots players, I expect Melton to qualify.

2015 was the first year with first round picks under the new CBA that had their fifth year options declined. There are two of these players that are projected to earn their former teams comp picks: James Carpenter (Seattle) and Nick Fairley (Detroit). Like with the three former Patriots described above, even though their former teams had a way to retain then for 2015 if they so chose, both Carpenter and Fairley were on the UFA list, therefore I expect them to qualify as CFAs.

2015 also marked the first offseason in which UFAs signed between May 13 and June 1 would not qualify as CFAs. Of the 15 UFAs that were signed during that period, only one would be of consequence if he qualified, and that is Joseph Barksdale, who could have potentially cost the Chargers their 5th for Eddie Royal. But since there’s no reason to think this May 12 change won’t happen, there’s also no good reason to think that Barksdale will qualify.

UPDATE: There is also some new question as to whether players who change teams via the transition tag qualify for the compensatory formula. As I explain here, they qualified as recently as 2007, but recent evidence may bring that into question. This implicates the Buffalo Bills, who signed transition tagged Charles Clay to an offer sheet away from Miami. The projection remains that Clay will qualify, but I’ve added a scenario below in the case that he doesn’t qualify.

Players On The Cutoff Bubbles

While it is my hope that my projection of where the cutoffs lie is correct, there is enough of a margin of error that the players that are very close to them may fall on the opposite side of where I have them projected. In most cases, if I’m wrong it means that the team in question will still get a comp pick for that player, but that it may be in a round higher or lower. But in a few cases (those are bolded), it could change cancellations, possibly taking away or greatly devaluing a projected comp pick—or possibly adding or greatly upgrading a comp pick.

I should take special note of both Julius Thomas and Seyi Ajirotutu being exactly on the cutoff point. I have both of them on the higher side of the cutoff, but Broncos fans should be aware that it’s 50/50 as to whether Thomas will net them a 3rd or a 4th, and Chargers fans likewise should expect similar coin flip odds on getting a 6th for Ryan Mathews, as explained below.

3rd/4th

Julius Thomas (Denver): ranked #104 overall

Projected 3rd/4th cutoff: #104 overall

4th/5th

Davon House (Green Bay): #192 overall

Buster Skrine (Cleveland): #195 overall

Da’Norris Searcy (Buffalo)

Projected 4th/5th cutoff: #209 overall

Dan Williams (Arizona): #216 overall

5th/6th

Vince Wilfork (New England): #293 overall

Nick Fairley (Detroit): #302 overall

Owen Daniels (Baltimore): #309 overall

Projected 5th/6th cutoff: #313 overall

Frank Gore (San Francisco): #319 overall

Bruce Carter (Dallas): #322 overall

Dan Skuta (Dallas): #326 overall

Rahim Moore (Denver): #330 overall

Shane Vereen (New England): #332 overall

6th/7th

Projected 6th/7th cutoff: #418 overall

Akeem Ayers (New England): #421 overall

Brice McCain (Pittsburgh): #439 overall

7th/Qualifying

Sam Acho (Arizona): #960 overall

Alex Carrington (Buffalo): #996 overall

EJ Biggers (Washington): #1029 overall

Jamari Lattimore (Green Bay): #1034 overall

Seyi Ajirotutu (San Diego): #1044 overall

Projected 7th/Qualifying cutoff: #1044 overall

Nick Bellore (San Francisco): #1107 overall

The projected comp picks that in the most danger of disappearing are the following:

Arizona’s 4th/5th for Dan Williams

San Diego’s 6th for Ryan Mathews

In addition, there is a chance that Buffalo could get a 6th for CJ Spiller that is currently not projected to be awarded. Depending on the above, there’s also a chance that picks could move into or out of the 32-pick limit.

Possible Altering Scenarios