PCs Lead, Despite Perceived Controversies

Liberals and NDP tied for second, well behind PCs

Toronto, August 29th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 981 Ontario voters, four in ten (40%) say that if an election were held today, they would support the Ontario PCs. Just over a quarter (27%) say they would support the NDP, and a quarter (25%) say they would support the Liberals. Few (6%) say they would support the Green party, while (2%) say they would support another party.

Respondents most likely to support the PCs include those aged 45-54 (47%) or 55-64 (49%), males (49%), earning $40,000-$60,000 (47%) or the most wealthy (47%), the least educated (44%) and those with some college/university (45%), living in Eastern Ontario (48%) or the 905 (45%).

Respondents most likely to support the Liberals include those 34 and younger (33%), females (32%), with a post-graduate degree, and living in Toronto (28%) or Eeastern Ontario (29%).

Respondents most likely to support the NDP include those aged 35-44 (32%), females (31%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (36%) or $80,000-$100,000 (34%), living in Toronto (34%) or North-eastern Ontario (32%).

Liberals and NDP tied for second, well behind PCs

Kathleen Wynne sees approval from fewer than two in ten (18%) and the disapproval of almost three-quarters (73%). Only (9%) say they do not know. The premier’s net favourable score is -55.

Patrick Brown sees the approval of a quarter of Ontarians (25%) and the disapproval of more than a third (34%). Critically for Brown, more than four in ten (41%) say they do not know. Brown’s net favourable score is -9.

Andrea Horwath is the most popular provincial leader with approval of more than a third (35%). Just under a third say they disapprove. However, more than a third (36%) also say they do not know how they feel about Horwath. Her net favourable score is +5.

Best premier: Brown tied with none of the above

More than a quarter (27%) say Patrick Brown would make the best premier of Ontario, while the same proportion (27%) say that none of Horwath, Wynne, or Brown, would make the best premier.

Andrea Horwath (21%) is supported by just over two in ten and Kathleen Wynne is supported by about one sixth (15%). One in ten (10%) say they do not know.

“While Patrick Brown’s PCs see a slight dip in support in August, for the most part his support remains steady, despite perceived controversies.” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Of primary concern for the premier should be her declining support in Toronto, as she now sits third behind both the Tories and the NDP. Without the same massive support in Toronto she received in 2014, her re-election prospects look dim, at best.”

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.