Last week we discussed extrabiblical reports of Jesus’ miracles. Today, we’ll begin a critical revisiting of the source material. The first miracle is the famous incident where Jesus is recorded as “walking on water”[1,2,3]. Out of all the miracles attributed to Jesus, this is one of the most impressive. One might disregard the calming of a storm as coincidental, or the casting out of demons as psychological therapy, but walking on water goes beyond achieving the improbable. The laws of physics simply do not allow for such an event. Since proposing that a human can actually do such a thing seems absurd, let’s take a skeptical approach and try to understand how this could have been faked.

One prominent natural explanation is that Jesus was walking on a sandbar submerged just below the surface of the water. This is a reasonable theory to investigate, as someone walking on a sandbar below the surface would appear to be walking on water. Sandbars tend to form when there are strong currents, which can be provided by a storm as well [4]. Aside from these explanatory tie-ins however, the Sandbar Theory can be a difficult argument to make. Sandbars are usually more prominent in rivers than lakes, because of loose soil available near the banks. John records that the disciples were 3 or 4 miles [3] into their journey, so they were probably a modest distance from shore. This makes it unlikely for enough loose soil to be present to form a sandbar near them.

Bathymetric Map of the Sea of Galilee by Ladislav Faigl under the CC SA 4.0 license

If we allow that the disciples were about 2 km away from the nearest shore, this would mean a depth of at least 15 m, requiring a significant quantity of soil to form a sandbar. Alternatively, he would need to swim far enough to reach a sandbar conveniently close to the boat. Furthermore, it is unlikely that a sandbar could form that quickly. Surf forecaster Adam Wright estimates a timescale on the order of weeks [5] for sandbars to form under the proper conditions. Numerous factors come into play in determining precisely how long it would take for a sandbar to form in this case, but it is reasonable to discard a timescale of mere hours. While the Sandbar Theory may not be the best natural explanation, a more interesting theory has arisen in recent times – and with a research paper to support it.



In 2006, ABC news published an article entitled “Did Jesus Walk on Water? Or ice?”[6] The author, Sara Goudarzi, attempts to answer this question by proposing that Jesus was, in fact, walking on ice. Researchers at Florida State University found that during a period of unusually cold weather, it was possible for ice patches to form in the Sea of Galilee. The study suggests “temperatures dropped to 25 degrees Fahrenheit (-4 degrees Celsius) during one of the two cold periods 2,500 –1,500 years ago for up to two days, the same decades during which Jesus lived.” Despite the significantly large time range, one of the researchers estimated ice patches could form once every 30 to 60 years. One should take into account that this second time-range nearly exceeds Jesus’ lifespan of 32 years. It would be very serendipitous for Jesus to decide to attempt to walk on water at precisely the right time when such rare ice floes would be able to assist him. Even if the cold weather occurred during Jesus’ ministry, it is unlikely that he would have been near the Sea of Galilee at such a time anyway. He had just concluded preaching to a large gathering of people when the disciples began to boat across. Temperatures below freezing would be inhospitable to an outdoor crowd. We might also investigate the likelihood of Jesus successfully walking on an ice patch, but this would be a superfluous argument.

From the two primary natural explanations on this miracle, we find that having the appearance of walking on water is a difficult feat to accomplish. It seems unlikely that Jesus would have had the proper conditions to do so. If this event is physically impossible/improbable, that would imply that it is either a real miracle the Gospels are recording, or a completely fabricated event. Next week we’ll continue the discussion with textual analysis to understand if the text truly supports a miracle.



Sources

Mark 6:45-53 Matthew 14:22-34 John 6:15-21 Sandbar. Article by World Landforms . Retrieved from: http://worldlandforms.com/landforms/sandbar/ Wright, A. (2014, September 25). Hurricane Marie crushed a lot of our sandbars…how long will it take for them to recover? Retrieved from: http://solspot.com/content/surf-forecasting-questions-answers/adam-wright/hurricane-marie-crushed-a-lot-of-our-sandbars-how-long-will-it-take-for-them-to-recover Goudarzi, S. (2006, April 04). Did Jesus walk on water? Or ice? Retrieved from: http://www.nbcnews.com/id/12152740/ns/technology_and_science-science/t/did-jesus-walk-water-or-ice/