ROBERT ZOELLICK, the moustachioed former U.S. Trade Representative appointed to head the World Bank by George W. Bush, has announced, not unexpectedly, that he'll be stepping down from that position after almost 5 years at the organisation's helm. The news has already touched off a wave of speculation over his likely successor. The job is typically reserved for an American, much as the IMF's top position has historically gone to a European and the role of UN Secretary General has been held by a citizen of "the third world". Leading contenders for the position (in the rumour mills at least) are Americans—Larry Summers and Hillary Clinton are frequently mentioned—but the growing importance to the world economy and international diplomacy of large emerging markets may well inform the choice, particularly given the World Bank's development portfolio.

Nancy Birdsall at the Center for Global Development assesses the dynamic: