In one of the first conversations about analytics I had with a Real Hockey Guy™, he got on me about how hung up hockey analytics has been with 5-on-5 play, to the exclusion of special teams performance.



He had a point, and it’s something that I’ve tried to learn more about over the past few years. The Maple Leafs’ penalty kill gives me an opportunity to use some of that knowledge.



There haven’t been many sour notes in the Maple Leafs’ season but one struggle that’s been overlooked is the collapse of their shot rate at 4-on-5. Last year’s Leafs were the second stingiest team in the NHL in terms of their rate of shot attempts allowed at 4-on-5; this year’s team is 25th.



The Leafs have yet to pay a price for this because their 4-on-5 save percentage is so much better this year. It’s up from .862 to .895. Save percentage is, however, a shaky foundation upon which to build your church. Just look at...