Alabama added more people last year than in any recent year since 2012, and the state’s growth seems to be accelerating. But most of that growth is in just a few spots - as most counties are still losing people.

Just three counties - Madison, Baldwin and Limestone - made up well more than half of the state’s total growth. In fact, Limestone, just west of Madison and part of the Huntsville metropolitan area, unseated Baldwin as the fastest-growing county in Alabama.

Between 2018 and 2019, 38 of the state’s 67 counties lost people, according to recently released etsimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Yet statewide growth seems to be accelerating, as the overall growth rate has increased each of the last three years.

Alabama added a net of more than 15,500 people between 2018 and 2019. That’s the highest yearly population gain in the state since 2011-2012, when the state population grew by 16,500. Alabama’s growth has been, and remains, fairly stagnant, as growth in a few urban areas is largely offset by losses in rural pockets.

Alabama’s growth is buoyed mainly by six fast-growing counties. They are the only ones to add more than 1,000 people in 2019, and most have been growing quickly for years. See those in darker blue on the map below.

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Most growth

Baldwin County, on the coast, had been the fastest-growing county in the state for the last five years, but not anymore.

In 2019, Limestone added nearly 3,000 people, good for a 2.85 percent increase - the fastest rate in Alabama. Limestone is now home to almost 99,000. Its recent growth has been fueled by the announcement of the Toyota Mazda plant in Huntsville. The plant, which is still under construction, is in Limestone County and will bring thousands of jobs to the area.

Baldwin is still growing like wildfire, adding more than 5,000 people in 2019 to reach 223,000. That’s a one-year growth rate of 2.47 percent. It and Limestone are the only counties to add more than 2 percent to their populations in 2019. Viewed since 2010, Baldwin is by far the fastest-growing county in Alabama. It has added more than 40,000 people, a growth of 21.9 percent, since the last full Census. For perspective, there were 37 counties in Alabama with fewer than 40,000 total people in 2019.

Madison, home of Huntsville, was the third fastest-growing county in 2019, but added the most total people at 5,900. It grew by 1.6 percent to reach just under 373,000. The other counties to add more than 1,000 people last year were Shelby (2,119 new people, 1% growth, population 217,702), an affluent suburb of Birmingham; Houston (1,112 new people, 1% growth, population 105,882) , home of Dothan, the hub of the Wiregrass region in southeast Alabama; and Tuscaloosa (1,036 new people, 0.5% growth, population 209,355), home of the University of Alabama.

Black Belt rapidly shrinking

A large cluster of counties in southwest Alabama make up the heart of the state’s population loss. Many of those counties are in the Black Belt, one of the state’s poorest regions. Dallas County, home of Selma, an important city in the Civil Rights movement, has been losing people at the fastest rate in the state in recent years. Dallas lost more than 1,000 people, or nearly 3 percent of its population in 2019, to reach just over 37,000 people. It’s seen its total population decline by more than 15 percent since 2010.

Dallas is one of three counties - all in the Black Belt - to see a population decline of more than 15 percent since 2010. Perry County, one of the least populous counties in Alabama, shrank by 15.5 percent from 2010 to 2019. Macon County, just east of Montgomery, shrank by nearly 16 percent - the highest percentage loss in Alabama.

Nine of the 10 fastest-shrinking counties since 2010 are in the Black Belt, according to a definition of counties in the region from the University of Alabama’s Culverhouse College of Business.

Every Black Belt County except two shrank since 2010, and 13 of the 17 counties shrank by more than six percent.

Russell County, along the Georgia border, and Pike County, home of Troy University, are the only traditional Black Belt counties to gain people 2010. Pike lost people from 2018 to 2019. Russell is part of the Columbus, Ga., metro area, and home to Phenix City. It’s actually the sixth fastest growing county in Alabama since 2010.

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Fastest gainers

Five Counties have grown by more than 10 percent since 2010.

Baldwin and Limestone are Nos. 1 and 2, followed by Lee County. Lee is home to Auburn University, and has consistently been near the top of the list in growth rate over the past decade, but Census data suggests its growth may be slowing. In 2012, it was the fastest growing county in Alabama, seeing a growth of more than 3 percent. In 2019, Lee added just .5 percent, or nearly 900 people. Still, Lee has grown by nearly 17 percent since 2010.

Shelby County is the fourth fastest growing since 2010, with a rate of more than 11 percent. Madison rounded out the top five with a rate just less than 11 percent.

Limestone County is trending up, while Lee is trending down. | graphic by Ramsey Archibald

Other large counties

Jefferson County, the most populous in the state and home to Birmingham, has remained mostly stagnant since 2010, and lost people last year. Since 2010 its added just 358 people to its more than 658,000 population. That’s including a loss of more than 850 people in 2019.

Mobile County, the second most populous in the state, is also losing people, but just barely. It lost nearly 700 people in 2019, bringing its net since 2010 to minus 105.

Montgomery, home to the state’s capital, has been shrinking since 2010 but might be seeing its curve flatten off. Its population is down by more than 3,000 since 2010, but it lost just 18 people in 2019.

Do you have an idea for a data story about Alabama? Email Ramsey Archibald at rarchibald@al.com, and follow him on Twitter @RamseyArchibald. Read more Alabama data stories here.