Pep Guardiola believes Manchester City could be in store for another nail-biting final day when the Premier League title is decided on goal difference – but has told his players they must first emerge unscathed from a “terrible” February.

City will leapfrog leaders Liverpool on goal difference and return to the top of the table for the first time since early December if they beat Everton at Goodison Park on Wednesday evening.

Liverpool’s 1-1 draw at West Ham United on Monday, which followed City’s resounding 3-1 win over Arsenal 24 hours earlier, provided an unexpected boost for the champions in their bid to become the first top-flight side for a decade to retain the title.

But Guardiola is already banking on a nip-and-tuck championship race going to the wire – and would not be surprised if it was ultimately settled on goal difference.

The last time that happened, in 2011-12, City prevailed in dramatic circumstances, coming from 2-1 behind against Queens Park Rangers to win 3-2 and finish above bitter rivals Manchester United thanks to their superior goal difference.

“I’m pretty sure the winner will be the last fixture or the last two. I’m sure of that,” said the City manager, who is hammering home to his players the importance of not only winning but trying to swell their goal difference.