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Traders at the UBC election stock market are betting on a huge Green breakthrough.

Five days before the May 9 provincial election, bets are down that the B.C. Green Party will win six of the 87 seats in the legislative assembly.

Based on trading results for prediction of seat shares, the governing B.C. Liberals and their main New Democrat opponents are tied at 40 seats each.

The remainder of the 87 seats is predicted to go to other contestants in the election.

The seat prediction is one of the three markets being run out of the Sauder School of Business.

The two others are share of the popular vote, and odds for a majority government.

The prediction markets administered by associate professor Werner Antweiler opened on March 1 this year.

As of March 29, traders were betting that Greens will take three seats, with neither Liberals nor New Democrats securing a majority government.

In that scenario, Greens will hold the balance of power in a new government.

As of today (May 4), Greens seem to have strengthened their position to six seats, based on trading at the UBC election stock market.

“There seems to be a very strong anticipation that the Greens will do well in Vancouver Island, and gain seats there,” Antweiler told the Georgia Straight in a phone interview.

Referring to the good Green standing, Antweiler said that prediction markets “tend to have a bit of a long shot bias, so they favour the underdogs a little bit”.

“That’s a very general phenomenon in those types of markets,” he said.

Antweiler said that could also explain why traders in the market for prediction of majority government are betting that there is at least a 20 percent chance that the election will produce a hung parliament.

Based on the said market, traders are wagering that there is an almost 48 percent chance that B.C. Liberals will form a majority government, and 32 percent for the B.C. NDP.

In the market for share of the popular vote, the B.C. Liberals of Premier Christy Clark are ahead with 41 percent; the B.C., 39 percent; and Greens, 16 percent.

Antweiler noted: “So far the traders seem to be very persistent in believing that the Liberals have an edge in mobilizing their base to turn out and vote.”

The UBC prediction markets are open for trading until 8:30 p.m. on Monday (May 8).