TORONTO — Following a Week 18 that thickened the plot across the CFL for those teams still in contention for the Grey Cup, CFL Simulation has thrown us a brand new front-runner for who’s most likely to be hoist the Grey Cup in late November.

With their win that sealed the sweep of the Argonauts in 2018, and thanks to their pesky feline foes from the West Coast handing Calgary their first home loss of the season, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats surge ahead to be favourites to win their first championship since 1999.

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers appear to have also gained some ground following their 31-0 shutout of the Roughriders on the weekend. As a result, they jump ahead of the Stampeders to win the Grey Cup in the event that the Bombers make it to Edmonton, despite Calgary having higher odds of actually making it to the championship.

We break it down in the latest CFL Simulation.

Here is a look at how the teams stack up:

ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS Team (Projected 2018 Record) Projection Calgary Stampeders (15-3) Clinched Saskatchewan Roughriders (11-7) Clinched Hamilton Tiger-Cats (10-8) Clinched Ottawa REDBLACKS (9-9) Clinched Winnipeg Blue Bombers (11-7) 97.38% BC Lions (8-10) 82.46% Edmonton Eskimos (9-9) 20.16% Toronto Argonauts (4-14) Eliminated Montreal Alouettes (4-14) Eliminated

ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME Team Projection Calgary Stampeders Clinched Ottawa REDBLACKS Clinched Hamilton Tiger-Cats Clinched Saskatchewan Roughriders 53.56% Winnipeg Blue Bombers 32.90% BC Lions 12.87% Edmonton Eskimos 0.67% Toronto Argonauts Eliminated Montreal Alouettes Eliminated

ODDS TO WIN EAST Team Projection Hamilton Tiger-Cats 94.32% Ottawa REDBLACKS 5.68% Toronto Argonauts Eliminated Montreal Alouettes Eliminated

ODDS TO WIN WEST Team Projection Calgary Stampeders 93.67% Saskatchewan Roughriders 6.33% Winnipeg Blue Bombers Eliminated BC Lions Eliminated Edmonton Eskimos Eliminated

ODDS TO APPEAR IN 106TH GREY CUP Team Projection Hamilton Tiger-Cats 78.29% Calgary Stampeders 56.16 Winnipeg Blue Bombers 39.88% Ottawa REDBLACKS 12.35% Saskatchewan Roughriders 6.17% BC Lions 6.03% Edmonton Eskimos 1.12% Toronto Argonauts Eliminated Montreal Alouettes Eliminated

ODDS TO WIN 106TH GREY CUP Team Projection Hamilton Tiger-Cats 35.69% Winnipeg Blue Bombers 29.72% Calgary Stampeders 28.29% Ottawa REDBLACKS 2.09% Saskatchewan Roughriders 2.08% BC Lions 1.91% Edmonton Eskimos 0.22% Toronto Argonauts Eliminated Montreal Alouettes Eliminated

MOST LIKELY 106TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS Team Projection Calgary-Hamilton 43.43% Winnipeg-Hamilton 28.58% Calgary-Ottawa 6.53% Winnipeg-Ottawa 4.78% Saskatchewan-Hamilton 4.09%

The model considers the following:

• Each team’s current win-loss record.

• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).

• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.

• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).

• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.

For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.