A new poll shows the Liberal party faces a tough battle to retain the Perth seat of Canning in next month’s byelection.

The ReachTEL poll of 768 voters, published in the West Australian on Wednesday, puts Labor’s candidate Matt Keogh slightly ahead on two-party-preferred terms, leading the Liberals’ Andrew Hastie 50.1% to 49.9%.

At the 2013 federal election the former Liberal MP Don Randall, whose death precipitated the byelection, won the seat with 61.8% of the two-party preferred vote.



The poll put the Liberals’ primary support down almost seven points on 2013 at 44.4%, with Labor up 3.6 points to 30.2% and the Greens on 8.6%. Support for the Palmer United party fell from 6.9% to 2.3%.

The two parties have exchanged barbs over the depth of their respective candidates’ local connections, with the foreign minister, Julie Bishop, describing Keogh as a “hipster Labor lawyer” from Mount Lawley, which is outside the electorate. Hastie, a former SAS soldier, has talked up his military credentials, saying he has put his “life on the line for this country and for freedom”, and defended his role in the war in Afghanistan.

The solar industry has announced it is urging voters to pick anyone but the Liberals, and has invited all candidates to a forum a week before the election to explain their policies.

Last week the prime minister, Tony Abbott, said he was “confident, but not complacent or cocky” about the Liberals’ chances in the byelection. He said Randall had attracted a strong personal vote.

“I’m not saying for a moment that we’re going to hold Don’s margin, but nevertheless we’ve got a terrific candidate. Andrew Hastie is an outstanding individual,” Abbott said.

The poll was commissioned by the union United Voice.

