By David Giambusso and Julia Terruso/The Star-Ledger

While New Jersey girds for Hurricane Sandy scientists and state officials say there may be cause for relief among the state's river communities.



The state's river and groundwater conditions are at below normal levels which could mean less inland flooding than during Hurricane Irene last year.



"All of the waters are a bit lower this year than last," said Larry Ragonese, spokesman for the Department of Environmental Protection. "That will be beneficial for this storm because we're not overflowing the banks as we come into it."



The August preceding Irene was the sixth wettest on record, so when the storm dumped as much as 10 inches in some areas, towns along the Raritan, Passaic, Rahway and Delaware rivers suffered an aftermath of intense flooding and extensive damage to homes and businesses.



This time, low to average river levels and forecasts of less heavy rains in north and central New Jersey means towns like Pine Brook, Fairfield, Little Falls, Wayne and Lincoln Park may avoid the semi-annual nightmare of flooded streets, ruined furniture and exodus from their neighborhoods.



"The heaviest rain in this system has shifted from South Jersey down towards the Delmarva peninsula," said David Robinson, the state climatologist at Rutgers University, saying the latest models show between 3 to 5 inches of rainfall for points north and west.



"That's the good news going into this," Robinson said but added, "You get five or six inches of rain or more and all bets are off."



The lower river levels are a result of a 2011 winter with virtually no snowfall and an early spring with little rain. While precipitation reached normal levels in April, those earlier drought-like conditions have left rivers at a moderately dry stage, the second driest on a four-point scale ranging from severely dry to normal, Ragonese said.



Robinson too said rivers are at or only slightly above average where they should be for this time of year.



Ground water levels, which measure how saturated the ground is and how much water it can retain, are also low across the state as are reservoirs which have filled up to 65 to 75 percent capacity. During Hurricane Irene reservoirs were near, or at, capacity.



"That gives you more chance for the ground to absorb water, more for the rivers to be able to handle the streams to be able to handle, it's a little bit better than before Irene when we were at normal levels," Ragonese said.



Still, if the storm hits with the full impact, ain't no river low enough.



"If we get hit full on with a major storm that's going to dump two dozen inches of water into our state there's nothing you can do about that," Ragonese said. "If you get a monster storm that's just mother nature and we'll have to deal with it."

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