Republican Sen. Marco Rubio lost his reelection bid in a Florida poll published by Democratic polling firm Civis Polling Tuesday.

Democratic nominee Patrick Murphy’s Senate campaign paid for and ordered the poll, but the results show Murphy with only a one-point lead — 45 percent to Rubio’s 44 percent. A small majority of Independent voters polled support Murphy at some 51.6 percent.

Rubio currently has a 5.7 percent lead in the Real Clear Average poll, in contrast with the internal poll that was conducted last month, despite its recent release date.

The internal polling faculties of the Murphy campaign say that available numbers fortell a Rubio loss. “Murphy has room to grow among several Democratic leaning groups that should be responsive to communications. He is well positioned to win this seat in the fall,” polling organization Civis Analytics wrote in a memo to the Murphy campaign.

Rubio’s favorability among Republican voters fell 5 points in August, and 9 points since the Republican Senator announced his bid in June.

Rubio currently has the edge in name recognition, according to the pollster. “Rubio’s support is also inflated by his temporary advantage in name ID, as he is winning voters who haven’t heard of Murphy, by 2-to-1.”

The poll surveyed 1,436 likely voters across the state of Florida, and was conducted from Aug. 9 through Aug. 15. There is no published margin of error for the poll.

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