Methodological innovations are enabling scientists to study how events in the distant past affect contemporary life. Nunn reviews recent research at the intersection of history, development, and culture that aims to understand the cultural evolution of economic development. The persistence of global inequality is used as a case study to demonstrate the interplay of these dynamics. Future areas of research and implications for policy are discussed.

Structured Abstract

BACKGROUND Traditionally, research into contemporary economic development has taken a primarily ahistorical approach. The study of the past was relegated to the separate field of economic history, and connections between historical factors and present-day economic outcomes were seldom made. In recent decades, there has been a rapidly growing body of research within economics that takes a historical perspective when attempting to understand contemporary issues related to global poverty and comparative development.

ADVANCES Typically, studies of this kind begin by collecting new data, often from archival sources, that measure aspects of the historical episode of interest. These data are then connected to contemporary outcomes of interest, matched through populations, societies, or locations, to test whether the historical factor has a causal effect on the contemporary factors being examined. Statistical analysis is undertaken, studying variation across individuals, ethnicities, or countries and using empirical techniques (such as instrumental variables, regression discontinuity, difference-in-difference, or natural experiments) that are aimed at distinguishing causal relationships from mere correlation. Having established the importance of a historical factor or episode for outcomes today, an attempt is then made to understand the exact causal mechanisms that account for the observed relationship. This generally requires the collection of additional data and additional statistical analysis, as well as an integration of the historical literature and descriptive evidence. A body of empirical research that has emerged over the past two decades has established that a substantial proportion of the variation in economic prosperity that we observe in the world today has its roots in the past. Historical events, such as European expansion across the globe during the 16th century and after, have been shown to have shaped subsequent paths of development. It is now clear that one cannot fully understand contemporary economic development without understanding its historical roots.