The loss of crucial Lok Sabha seats of Gorakhpur and Phulpur is undoubtedly a warning sign for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The recent losses in Rajasthan and the fierce fight in Gujarat elections show that BJP is still vulnerable in a two-way contest despite its declared ambition to fight for the 50 per cent vote share under the leadership of Amit Shah. It also shows that weaving the united spectrum of Hindu votes (USHV) is much easier than maintaining it.

By creating a united vote bloc incorporating all Hindu castes, BJP has also internalised all the contradictions and clash of interests within its ambit. It was always going to be challenging to run this political coalition without any corresponding effort to create a social coalition, which would necessitate backing anti-caste socio-religious reforms. True that such reforms are beyond the capacity of a political party but in Uttar Ptadesh, BJP has been found wanting even in maintaining the political coalition of different castes by a genuine power-sharing.

A harsh fact is that despite the push from the leadership, the state BJP is still stuck in the mindset of the 1980s and 1990s and the appointments to the institutions, bureaucracy and positions of power has already been dubbed as the return of the upper-castes to power. The Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Dalits, who made the massive BJP sweep of 2014 and 2017 possible are feeling left out of the power structure. They hardly own any significant ministry or bureaucratic positions or visible positions like that of the vice-chancellors etc, ie, there is not even a symbolic gesture about the power-sharing and inclusive Hindu agenda.

A strong perception is building up that BJP has no new ‘Hindu agenda’ apart from restoring the upper-caste orthodoxy in the form of cow-vigilantism etc and upper-caste dominance in all the state apparatus like the ugly saga which played out in the appointment of the law officers, where around 90 per cent of the appointees belonged to the upper-castes. This has shaken the USHV.

But the situation is worse at the village and district level, where anyone form the upper-castes with some connection to dial up in the BJP has started to behave brazenly with the other social groups. The abrasive behaviour of the orthodox elements among upper-castes at the local level due to the mistaken belief that ‘our time has come again’ is already touching the dangerous point as all these small incidents continue to add up and spread far due to easy connectivity via mobile and social media. It is just like how Yadavs used to behave during the Samajwadi Party (SP) rule.

Surprisingly, those who counted the Yadavs in the posts of district magistrate or superintendent of police to level the charge of ‘Yadavisation’ of the administration have suddenly fallen silent about the caste composition of the new appointments. But do they think people don’t notice it? After all, WhatsApp messages are full of such lists, both true and exaggerated. And it is where the SP and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have found a crack to drive a wedge via aggressive campaigning along the caste lines. Every incident, even if not directly related to the caste violence or discrimination, is attributed to the BJP rule, like in the case of the brutal murder of a student from the Dalit caste. Despite the quick action by the administration in many such cases, the perception that BJP is enabling the caste supremacists is getting stronger even among those who otherwise vote for BJP. Importantly, this was not the case before the formation of the government in 2017.

Now, this is true that the dominant castes behave as they do irrespective of the government in power. But the attempt to create mahaul by the opposition propaganda machinery has started to work due to the failure of the power-sharing experiment in UP among upper-castes, OBCs and Dalits. And this must worry BJP as it was stopped in its tracks even at the peak of the Ram Janambhoomi movement in 1993 when OBC and Dalit castes represented under SP and BSP united in a political alliance. It must be said that there is no other way to negate the caste factor except Hindutva, but it must deliver genuine power sharing and representation across the institutions and positions of decision making.

Vikas alone is not enough, BJP must control the caste lobbies of the dominant castes running amok in UP and ensure visible socio-economic mobility, both materially and symbolically. Unlike the fallacious reading of the 2017 verdict as the defeat of the ‘caste politics’ and a victory of ‘politics of vikas,’ the 2017 victory was largely due to BJP outsmarting other parties in the caste politics by capitalising on the long-term trends in the society.

Another reason is the low turnout in the elections as a large number of supporters and cadre decided to express their discontent with the government both at the central and the state levels. The cause of discontent are varied but most important among them are the seat cuts in the government jobs especially when job creation in the private sector remains sluggish due to the long-term slowdown of the Indian economy, thanks to the ‘twin balance sheet’ albatross inherited from the United Progressive Alliance era and demonetisation. Either seats are being reduced, or where they are advertised, the process is perpetually stuck due to the broken system.

Another cause is the cadre feels that it has not gained much in the past four years unlike the cadre of SP or BSP or Congress when the respective parties are in power. Jobs remains one issue and the lack of ‘recognition’ remains another. Now a large chunk of the BJP cadre is self-sufficient on the income front and doesn’t need the party to hand out doles to them. But there are hundreds of avenues at the various levels of the government in the form of committees, advisory bodies, etc where they could be positioned (most are not salaried ones) to give a title and social recognition apart from creating another network for the flow of information and suggestions to the government. But sadly, this has not even been touched, unlike when the Congress comes to power and fills every insignificant post with its cadre.

Being a cadre-based party, the indifference of the cadre is always disastrous for the BJP as its entire electoral machinery comes to a grinding halt. And there is also not enough movement on the big-ticket Hindu causes like Ram Temple etc to excite the cadre.

Contrary to the what is being talked about in media, loss of the Gorakhpur seat is not surprising given the bad candidate selection defying the caste composition of the constituency, where Nishads are 18.37 per cent, Yadavs 9.18 per cent, Dalits 18 per cent, other OBCs 25.75 per cent and Muslims 10 per cent.

Earlier, people voted for Yogi Adityanath because he was seen as a Hindu leader, above the caste considerations but there was no reason why would people vote for some Upender Dutt Shukla just because he was from BJP and when SP had fielded a strong Nishad candidate. But by fielding a Brahmin candidate, BJP strengthened the impression that even in areas of strong non-upper caste demography, BJP is trying to impose an upper-caste leadership. And it didn’t go down well. Writings were on the wall, but the party refused to see it.

But what should worry BJP more is the loss in Phulpur, where despite fielding a Kurmi candidate and despite the division of the Muslim votes due to Atique Ahmed, BJP lost by a significant margin. It not only reaffirms that the USHV is cracking but also shows a wider discontent is building in the region due to reasons which must be taken seriously by the party leadership. There is still a long-run to the 2019 elections, and the UP by-polls have come as a timely warning for the BJP to introspect and recalibrate its strategy.