Another part of the problem for Kyiv is that it has antiquated and unreliable statistics, making it harder to formulate policies to address the significant outbound flow of citizens. Ukraine’s population stands at a little more than 48 million—or at least it did in 2001, when the most recent census was taken. An array of political crises, conflicts, and more urgent issues have meant that, time and again, successive Ukrainian governments have kicked the can down the road when talk has turned to carrying out a full count of the number of people in the country. (This is by no means unusual: A census can be hugely political, and governments are not always keen to learn about changing population figures, or the shifting balance among different groups.) As a result, few Ukrainians believe the official tally. Libanova, for example, reckons that the total is as low as 35 million (the World Bank estimates the number to be 44.6 million, while the European Commission puts it at 42.2 million). Zelensky campaigned on a pledge to finally conduct the census, which will happen this year.

The political resonance of this emigration is significant. Less sympathetic observers, such as pro-Kremlin media outlets, portray Ukrainian émigrés as voting with their feet, casting a damning verdict on the country’s Western-facing future. Zelensky himself faces pressure over the issue: In a candid interview in August, Ihor Kolomoisky, a Ukrainian oligarch widely suspected of being behind Zelensky’s candidacy, described reducing mass emigration from Ukraine as the president’s “key performance indicator.” If Zelensky failed, the tycoon predicted, he’d be out.

To be sure, just because Ukrainians have physically left the country doesn’t mean they are disinterested in its future. Along with the remittances they send back home, young Ukrainians remain engaged with politics there, Viktor Kotigorenko, the head of Kyiv’s Kuras Institute for Political and Ethno-National Studies, told me. Libanova avoids the term depopulation crisis, which in her view confounds attempts to discuss the problem rationally and implicitly cedes ground to extreme and unproven solutions. And, she argues, there is something democratic in Ukrainians being able to leave at all, to build a life outside the country. “For all of humanity’s history, people have wanted to live longer, and to choose where they can live,” she told me. “For some of us, both those things have happened. That’s evolution.”

Still, however things evolve, Ukraine isn’t fully in control of whether its people will stay (or return). “Even 10 years from now, the quality of life in Ukraine will differ significantly from Poland,” Libanova said. “By all indications, Poland is an economic success, but Poles still travel Europe in search of better jobs. Nothing depends on us.” Clarkson also believes that, if current trends continue, Ukraine is destined to suffer the same fate as the rest of Central Europe: labor shortages at home while locals work abroad. “Give it 20 years, and Ukrainians will be complaining about Afghan migrant workers,” he said.