Amongst the chief concerns for those doing the budget revolved around the structure of the tax plan in general. The plan as presented received $30M from Guaranteed Payments, a program which House Republicans were informed on Tuesday, June 2 could be "easily avoided" by restructuring LLC business status. A quick check with an accountant verified this assessment, that many businesses can completely avoid this for a small fee and around 1 hour of work.

Also included within the tax plan are "amnesty" returns. The state of Kansas will offer an Amnesty window to get non-payers to file their taxes and pay up on debt, removing penalties in an effort to get people to pay. It is uncertain if these traditional non-payers will suddenly come through with the estimated funds.

These items reflect a significant portion of the state plan for a budget in Fiscal Year 2015, but as a member noted: there is also the expectation of continued economic growth - and we can't stop that.

"This is fantasy land money" a lobbyist assured me; "It is almost a guarantee we miss projections early and often." Noting that their were several issues. Amongst them:

* Significant increase in cigarette tax would simply drive smokers to cross the state line in Johnson County and send others to Indian reservations.

* Significant increases in sales tax - including food through 2016 - would also have individual cross state line and may lower in state spending, hurting revenue targets. This is a chief complaint of many Chamber of Commerce members in attendance.

* Tax Amnesty is unlikely to pull in expected revenue.

More pressing, though is that Senators and House members dislike the idea of being last on the record. The senate, unable to pass the bill and sitting at 20-17 found themselves one vote short of a passing member until Julia Lynn (R-Olathe/Gardner) came into the body to cast an AYE vote putting it over the top; but it was Mike O'Donnell (R-Wichita) who helped save her from being the vote that put the bill over the top, changing his "YES" to a "NO" and eventually back to a "YES" in order to be the last and deciding vote for a significant tax increase.

Mike O'Donnell, who was openly supported by AfP and Chamber of Commerce in 2012 ran on a campaign of "No New Taxes, Period". Considered an at risk seat by some Republicans, it was easier to make Mike O'Donnell the target of outrage as the final vote than it was to put others at risk and having Mike O'Donnell go last certainly accomplished that feat.

It is unclear if Mike O'Donnell realized the impact of him being the vote that put the bill over the top, but it was not lost on outsiders.

Now, the tax plan moves to the house. Speaking with reporters earlier, Representative Kleeb indicated it was 'Unlikely' this bill could pass the house, as it contains measures specifically unpopular in that body: student vouchers, the property tax lid, and a refusal to take on business taxes.

However, as we left the capital many Republicans were confident they could reach as many as 69 votes in the house, pointing out that no one wanted to be on the wrong side of the $470M question, and everyone was eager to go home.

The house comes in at 2PM tomorrow in Topeka and will begin debate to concur with the senate. Upon vote the measure will be forwarded to the Governor, and Kansas will close the legislative year.