Three-and-one. Mmmmmm, drink it in. It always goes down smooth. Wait, what?

Heading into Week 5 has the Chargers sitting at 3-1; a record not seen since the days-of-Schottenheimer. While 3-1 seems impressive, those three wins have come against teams with a combined 1-11 record. Not exactly something that instills massive amounts of confidence. As you'll see in this week's analysis, the pundits like the 3-1 record, but the Chargers stats don't quite back it up.

Notable Quotes

Fox Sports

If anyone hasn't noticed, we are through the first quarter of the season and the Chargers are 3-1. Now, they begin a tough three-week road trip at the Jets, Broncos and Chiefs. They can slam the door on the division if they play well in this stint.

Sports Illustrated

We've killed the slow-starting Chargers for years now over their tendency to sleep-walk through September and early October, but now that they're off to a solid 3-1 beginning, I'm not hearing a whole lot of credit directed Norv Turner's way. That's a damned if you do, damned if you don't kind of scenario, but I suppose it's to be expected. San Diego is 3-0 at home, but this week the Chargers embark on a three-game road trip that is interrupted only by their Week 6 bye.

ProFootballWeekly

Quietly playing well, even with a bunch of injuries.

Subjective Average

Subjective Packers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.000 Saints 2 2 6 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 3 2 2.667 1.179 Patriots 3 6 3 3 3 5 5 3 2 2 4 4 3.583 1.187 Ravens 5 3 4 4 5 4 3 4 5 3 2 3 3.750 0.924 Lions 4 4 2 6 4 3 4 6 4 5 5 5 4.333 1.106 Texans 6 7 7 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 6.250 0.595 Chargers 7 5 5 8 8 7 7 5 7 7 6 7 6.583 1.038 Bills 9 12 9 14 7 10 10 11 10 8 10 8 9.833 1.818 Giants 10 14 10 11 11 9 8 9 8 9 12 9 10.000 1.683 Buccaneers 11 8 13 9 13 8 9 10 14 17 8 10 10.833 2.734 Titans 8 16 15 7 9 14 12 16 12 11 13 11 12.000 2.858 Steelers 13 9 11 15 12 11 13 8 13 10 15 15 12.083 2.253 Redskins 12 10 8 17 10 17 11 17 9 12 11 14 12.333 3.064 Jets 14 13 19 13 15 18 14 14 11 13 9 13 13.833 2.577 Falcons 19 11 14 18 18 16 16 12 17 15 18 12 15.500 2.598 49ers 16 18 16 19 16 12 15 15 15 14 14 16 15.500 1.756 Bears 18 15 18 10 17 13 18 18 18 18 17 17 16.417 2.431 Raiders 15 20 17 12 14 15 17 13 19 19 19 18 16.500 2.533 Cowboys 17 17 12 16 19 19 19 19 16 16 16 20 17.167 2.115 Eagles 20 19 20 20 20 22 20 20 20 20 20 19 20.000 0.707 Bengals 21 22 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21.333 0.471 Browns 22 25 23 25 21 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 22.667 1.247 Panthers 24 21 21 23 23 20 23 24 23 24 25 23 22.833 1.404 Cardinals 23 23 26 21 24 23 24 23 24 23 24 24 23.500 1.118 Broncos 27 27 28 24 26 26 27 25 25 26 26 25 26.000 1.080 Jaguars 26 30 25 29 25 25 26 30 26 27 23 26 26.500 2.062 Seahawks 25 24 24 27 27 27 28 31 27 25 28 27 26.667 1.886 Chiefs 28 31 27 28 28 28 25 26 28 30 27 28 27.833 1.518 Colts 29 26 31 26 32 30 29 27 30 28 30 30 29.000 1.826 Rams 32 28 29 31 30 31 32 32 29 31 29 29 30.250 1.362 Dolphins 31 29 30 32 31 32 30 28 31 29 32 31 30.500 1.258 Vikings 30 32 32 30 29 29 31 29 32 32 31 32 30.750 1.233

Observations:

Looks like the Packers vs Saints game will be the first and last (NFC) game of the year.

Again, there's a definite deliniation between the top 7 teams, and the next 7. The Chargers are at the bottom of the Top 7 group.

After their impressive win over the Jets put the Raiders fairly close to the Chargers in the rankings, they got knocked down a few pegs this week after getting man-handled by the Patriots

The 49ers certainly are climbing the board.

Philadelphia ... ouch.

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective Packers 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.000 Bengals 21 22 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21.333 0.471 Texans 6 7 7 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 6.250 0.595 Eagles 20 19 20 20 20 22 20 20 20 20 20 19 20.000 0.707 Ravens 5 3 4 4 5 4 3 4 5 3 2 3 3.750 0.924 Chargers 7 5 5 8 8 7 7 5 7 7 6 7 6.583 1.038 Broncos 27 27 28 24 26 26 27 25 25 26 26 25 26.000 1.080 Lions 4 4 2 6 4 3 4 6 4 5 5 5 4.333 1.106 Cardinals 23 23 26 21 24 23 24 23 24 23 24 24 23.500 1.118 Saints 2 2 6 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 3 2 2.667 1.179 Patriots 3 6 3 3 3 5 5 3 2 2 4 4 3.583 1.187 Vikings 30 32 32 30 29 29 31 29 32 32 31 32 30.750 1.233 Browns 22 25 23 25 21 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 22.667 1.247 Dolphins 31 29 30 32 31 32 30 28 31 29 32 31 30.500 1.258 Rams 32 28 29 31 30 31 32 32 29 31 29 29 30.250 1.362 Panthers 24 21 21 23 23 20 23 24 23 24 25 23 22.833 1.404 Chiefs 28 31 27 28 28 28 25 26 28 30 27 28 27.833 1.518 Giants 10 14 10 11 11 9 8 9 8 9 12 9 10.000 1.683 49ers 16 18 16 19 16 12 15 15 15 14 14 16 15.500 1.756 Bills 9 12 9 14 7 10 10 11 10 8 10 8 9.833 1.818 Colts 29 26 31 26 32 30 29 27 30 28 30 30 29.000 1.826 Seahawks 25 24 24 27 27 27 28 31 27 25 28 27 26.667 1.886 Jaguars 26 30 25 29 25 25 26 30 26 27 23 26 26.500 2.062 Cowboys 17 17 12 16 19 19 19 19 16 16 16 20 17.167 2.115 Steelers 13 9 11 15 12 11 13 8 13 10 15 15 12.083 2.253 Bears 18 15 18 10 17 13 18 18 18 18 17 17 16.417 2.431 Raiders 15 20 17 12 14 15 17 13 19 19 19 18 16.500 2.533 Jets 14 13 19 13 15 18 14 14 11 13 9 13 13.833 2.577 Falcons 19 11 14 18 18 16 16 12 17 15 18 12 15.500 2.598 Buccaneers 11 8 13 9 13 8 9 10 14 17 8 10 10.833 2.734 Titans 8 16 15 7 9 14 12 16 12 11 13 11 12.000 2.858 Redskins 12 10 8 17 10 17 11 17 9 12 11 14 12.333 3.064

Observations:

Packers unanimous number-1 (duh)

Wow, Bengals are very consistent in their rankings. As are the Texans and Eagles

The Chargers have historically been one of the more inconsistently-ranked teams on the subjective lists. This week, they're 6th-most-consistent. Hovering right around a 6-7 ranking

Tennessee and Washington have caught everyone by surprise. They're a bit flabbergasted.

Objective Average

Objective Packers 2 1 1 1.333 0.471 Patriots 1 4 2 2.333 1.247 Ravens 3 5 4 4.000 0.817 Saints 6 3 3 4.000 1.414 Lions 11 2 5 6.000 3.742 Bills 4 7 9 6.667 2.055 Texans 8 8 7 7.667 0.471 Giants 5 11 12 9.333 3.091 Jets 7 15 6 9.333 4.028 Titans 10 10 8 9.333 0.943 Cowboys 21 6 11 12.667 6.236 Steelers 9 19 10 12.667 4.497 49ers 14 9 17 13.333 3.300 Redskins 17 14 15 15.333 1.247 Chargers 12 20 14 15.333 3.399 Bears 23 12 13 16.000 4.967 Raiders 19 13 16 16.000 2.450 Buccaneers 15 16 18 16.333 1.247 Falcons 13 18 20 17.000 2.944 Bengals 18 17 19 18.000 0.817 Eagles 16 25 21 20.667 3.682 Broncos 26 21 22 23.000 2.160 Vikings 20 28 25 24.333 3.300 Panthers 27 23 23 24.333 1.886 Jaguars 28 22 24 24.667 2.494 Cardinals 25 26 27 26.000 0.817 Dolphins 24 30 26 26.667 2.494 Browns 22 29 29 26.667 3.300 Chiefs 31 24 30 28.333 3.091 Colts 29 31 28 29.333 1.247 Seahawks 30 27 31 29.333 1.700 Rams 32 32 32 32.000 0.000

Observations:

Football Outsiders' metrics still are in love with the Patriots. But the Packers are still the overall top team.

The Chargers don't appear to be playing as well objectively than the subjective sites feel. More on that in a bit.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective Rams 32 32 32 32.000 0.000 Packers 2 1 1 1.333 0.471 Texans 8 8 7 7.667 0.471 Ravens 3 5 4 4.000 0.817 Bengals 18 17 19 18.000 0.817 Cardinals 25 26 27 26.000 0.817 Titans 10 10 8 9.333 0.943 Patriots 1 4 2 2.333 1.247 Redskins 17 14 15 15.333 1.247 Colts 29 31 28 29.333 1.247 Buccaneers 15 16 18 16.333 1.247 Saints 6 3 3 4.000 1.414 Seahawks 30 27 31 29.333 1.700 Panthers 27 23 23 24.333 1.886 Bills 4 7 9 6.667 2.055 Broncos 26 21 22 23.000 2.160 Raiders 19 13 16 16.000 2.450 Dolphins 24 30 26 26.667 2.494 Jaguars 28 22 24 24.667 2.494 Falcons 13 18 20 17.000 2.944 Giants 5 11 12 9.333 3.091 Chiefs 31 24 30 28.333 3.091 Browns 22 29 29 26.667 3.300 Vikings 20 28 25 24.333 3.300 49ers 14 9 17 13.333 3.300 Chargers 12 20 14 15.333 3.399 Eagles 16 25 21 20.667 3.682 Lions 11 2 5 6.000 3.742 Jets 7 15 6 9.333 4.028 Steelers 9 19 10 12.667 4.497 Bears 23 12 13 16.000 4.967 Cowboys 21 6 11 12.667 6.236

Observations:

St. Louis is terrible. It's unanimous

Dallas is all over the board here. No clue just how good or bad they are.

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj Packers 1.000 1.333 1.167 0.249 0.333 Patriots 3.583 2.333 2.958 1.300 -1.250 Saints 2.667 4.000 3.333 1.340 1.333 Ravens 3.750 4.000 3.875 0.909 0.250 Lions 4.333 6.000 5.167 2.055 1.667 Texans 6.250 7.667 6.958 0.806 1.417 Bills 9.833 6.667 8.250 2.257 -3.167 Giants 10.000 9.333 9.667 2.061 -0.667 Titans 12.000 9.333 10.667 2.802 -2.667 Chargers 6.583 15.333 10.958 3.927 8.750 Jets 13.833 9.333 11.583 3.435 -4.500 Steelers 12.083 12.667 12.375 2.857 0.583 Buccaneers 10.833 16.333 13.583 3.336 5.500 Redskins 12.333 15.333 13.833 3.043 3.000 49ers 15.500 13.333 14.417 2.323 -2.167 Cowboys 17.167 12.667 14.917 3.820 -4.500 Bears 16.417 16.000 16.208 3.113 -0.417 Falcons 15.500 17.000 16.250 2.737 1.500 Raiders 16.500 16.000 16.250 2.525 -0.500 Bengals 21.333 18.000 19.667 1.445 -3.333 Eagles 20.000 20.667 20.333 1.784 0.667 Panthers 22.833 24.333 23.583 1.628 1.500 Broncos 26.000 23.000 24.500 1.818 -3.000 Browns 22.667 26.667 24.667 2.446 4.000 Cardinals 23.500 26.000 24.750 1.461 2.500 Jaguars 26.500 24.667 25.583 2.276 -1.833 Vikings 30.750 24.333 27.542 3.160 -6.417 Seahawks 26.667 29.333 28.000 2.135 2.667 Chiefs 27.833 28.333 28.083 1.948 0.500 Dolphins 30.500 26.667 28.583 2.205 -3.833 Colts 29.000 29.333 29.167 1.731 0.333 Rams 30.250 32.000 31.125 1.405 1.750

Observations:

Thanks to their objective rankings, San Diego is knocked down a few spots. But hey, still above Rex Ryan's Jets (I'll take it).

Yup, Packers are still good. Rams are still terrible

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj Packers 1.000 1.333 1.167 0.249 0.333 Texans 6.250 7.667 6.958 0.806 1.417 Ravens 3.750 4.000 3.875 0.909 0.250 Patriots 3.583 2.333 2.958 1.300 -1.250 Saints 2.667 4.000 3.333 1.340 1.333 Rams 30.250 32.000 31.125 1.405 1.750 Bengals 21.333 18.000 19.667 1.445 -3.333 Cardinals 23.500 26.000 24.750 1.461 2.500 Panthers 22.833 24.333 23.583 1.628 1.500 Colts 29.000 29.333 29.167 1.731 0.333 Eagles 20.000 20.667 20.333 1.784 0.667 Broncos 26.000 23.000 24.500 1.818 -3.000 Chiefs 27.833 28.333 28.083 1.948 0.500 Lions 4.333 6.000 5.167 2.055 1.667 Giants 10.000 9.333 9.667 2.061 -0.667 Seahawks 26.667 29.333 28.000 2.135 2.667 Dolphins 30.500 26.667 28.583 2.205 -3.833 Bills 9.833 6.667 8.250 2.257 -3.167 Jaguars 26.500 24.667 25.583 2.276 -1.833 49ers 15.500 13.333 14.417 2.323 -2.167 Browns 22.667 26.667 24.667 2.446 4.000 Raiders 16.500 16.000 16.250 2.525 -0.500 Falcons 15.500 17.000 16.250 2.737 1.500 Titans 12.000 9.333 10.667 2.802 -2.667 Steelers 12.083 12.667 12.375 2.857 0.583 Redskins 12.333 15.333 13.833 3.043 3.000 Bears 16.417 16.000 16.208 3.113 -0.417 Vikings 30.750 24.333 27.542 3.160 -6.417 Buccaneers 10.833 16.333 13.583 3.336 5.500 Jets 13.833 9.333 11.583 3.435 -4.500 Cowboys 17.167 12.667 14.917 3.820 -4.500 Chargers 6.583 15.333 10.958 3.927 8.750

Observations:

Now the Chargers are at the bottom of the Standard Deviation list. The Cowboys are close behind.

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj Chargers 6.583 15.333 10.958 3.927 8.750 Buccaneers 10.833 16.333 13.583 3.336 5.500 Browns 22.667 26.667 24.667 2.446 4.000 Redskins 12.333 15.333 13.833 3.043 3.000 Seahawks 26.667 29.333 28.000 2.135 2.667 Cardinals 23.500 26.000 24.750 1.461 2.500 Rams 30.250 32.000 31.125 1.405 1.750 Lions 4.333 6.000 5.167 2.055 1.667 Falcons 15.500 17.000 16.250 2.737 1.500 Panthers 22.833 24.333 23.583 1.628 1.500 Texans 6.250 7.667 6.958 0.806 1.417 Saints 2.667 4.000 3.333 1.340 1.333 Eagles 20.000 20.667 20.333 1.784 0.667 Steelers 12.083 12.667 12.375 2.857 0.583 Chiefs 27.833 28.333 28.083 1.948 0.500 Colts 29.000 29.333 29.167 1.731 0.333 Packers 1.000 1.333 1.167 0.249 0.333 Ravens 3.750 4.000 3.875 0.909 0.250 Bears 16.417 16.000 16.208 3.113 -0.417 Raiders 16.500 16.000 16.250 2.525 -0.500 Giants 10.000 9.333 9.667 2.061 -0.667 Patriots 3.583 2.333 2.958 1.300 -1.250 Jaguars 26.500 24.667 25.583 2.276 -1.833 49ers 15.500 13.333 14.417 2.323 -2.167 Titans 12.000 9.333 10.667 2.802 -2.667 Broncos 26.000 23.000 24.500 1.818 -3.000 Bills 9.833 6.667 8.250 2.257 -3.167 Bengals 21.333 18.000 19.667 1.445 -3.333 Dolphins 30.500 26.667 28.583 2.205 -3.833 Jets 13.833 9.333 11.583 3.435 -4.500 Cowboys 17.167 12.667 14.917 3.820 -4.500 Vikings 30.750 24.333 27.542 3.160 -6.417

Observations:

Sigh. It's now the second week in a row that the Chargers are at the top of this list as the "Most Overrated Team." This should cause some concern as historically teams in this position are due a fall from grace.

People are getting excited about Tampa Bay and Washington, but they should temper that excitement a bit.

There was a lot of pre-season hype about Cleveland this year. It seems that was unwaranted and it's just more of the same in Ohio.

Minnesota is still playing better than is perceived. But until they start winning games, they'll still be down at the bottom of the list

Sources