HOW REGIONS AFFECTED BY AGRARIAN CRISIS VOTED IN 2013

Data courtesy Rishabh Srivastava -- founder of data research firm, Loki Technologies

For a good part of its tenure, the Siddaramaiah government in Karnataka has been dogged by farm distress . Between April 2013 and November 2017, as many as 3,515 farmers in the state committed suicide . Of these, the Karnataka agricultural department accepted that 2,525 deaths were due to drought and crop failure.A look at the 2013 electoral map of Karnataka reveals that the districts most affected by the agrarian crisis were Bagalkot, Raichur, Shivammonga, Gulbarga, Bellary, Bijapur, Dharwad, Koppal, Mandya and Belgavi.In 2013, the Congress had comfortably won 40 out of the 74 seats in these areas. Not surprisingly, the crisis resulted in widespread resentment against Siddaramaiah's government in the last three years.To help farmers tide over, in 2017, the Siddaramaiah government announced a crop loan waiver of up to Rs 50,000 per farmer to benefit over 22 lakh farmers. This cost an estimated Rs 8,165 crore to the state exchequer. The state government also asked Centre to bail out farmers who have loans from nationalised and rural banks.Explore how Karnataka voted in every election from 1978-2013The government’s decision to waive crop loans and increase the minimum support price of a few commodities helped. A good monsoon, added to the reprieve. But is that enough? The Karnataka State Disaster Management Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC) report reveals that, in the 15 years from 2001 to 2015, only three years–2005, 2007 and 2010–the state witnessed no drought.Clearly, political parties are leaving no stone unturned to woo farmers. The manifestos of all three -- the Congress, the BJP and the JD (S) -- talk about farm-loan waivers.While the BJP has promised loan waiver of Rs 1 lakh from nationalised and cooperative banks and allocation of Rs 1.5 lakh crore for irrigation projects, the JD (S) has gone one step ahead by promising 100% loan waivers to farmers in 24 hours of its coming to power. This is over and above the existing loan waiver announced by the ruling government.Not to be outdone, the Congress too, in its manifesto, offers a Rs 1 lakh farm loan waiver, and allocation of money for irrigation. This will amount to Rs 1.25 lakh crore over the next five years.The big question: Can the bailout of farmers by the Congress in the past and new promises made in its manifesto help it retain the seats won in the last election? Or will merger of Yeddyruppa 's Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) and BJP hurt its chances? The answer will probably lie in the Congress’s ability to increase its vote share here and swing of public perception in its favour.